Iowa vs Minnesota
2 EST
8-Unit Best bet on Iowa plus the 2 points and is valid to pick-em.

Iowa is 8-1 ATS following a game with 24 or more assists spanning the past three seasons. Minnesota is just 24-42 ATS following losses to the spread in four of their last five games over the past 20 seasons. Iowa head coach McCaffery is 60-38 ATS when facing a team that averages 21 or more three point shots per game after the 15th game of the regular season.

From the predictive model, Minnesota is just 3-9 SUATS in home games in which they allowed 77 or more points over the past five seasons.

Long Beach State at UC-Santa Barbara

10 EST
10-Unit Best bet on UC Santa Barbara using the money line

LBST is 4-11 ATS when playing against a team that has won 60% or more of their games on the season over the past two seasons; 0-6 ATS when facing a team that averages 17 or fewer fouls per game after the 15th game of the regular season spanning the last two seasons; 2-10 ATS when facing good rebounding teams outrebounding their foes by 4 or more boards per game over the past two seasons; 5-12 ATS after having won two of their last three games over the past two seasons.

UCSB is 14-4 ATS following a game in which they made 55% or fewer of their free throws. UCSB head coach Pasternack is 30-15 ATS when playing against a team that has won 60 to 80^ of their games; 19-6 ATS when facing a solid offensive team scoring 77 or more PPG.

From the predictive models, we are expecting a slower than usual pace in this game with UCSB attempting 54 to 62 shots, shoot better than 47% from the field, and score 75 or more points. UCSB is 31-3 SU and 19-6-1 ATS in home games in which they have scored 75 or more points over the past five seasons; they are 29-2 SU and 18-5-1 ATS when shooting better than 47% and scoring 75+ points in home games over the past five seasons.

Incarnate Word vs. Northwestern State

4:00 EST
8-Unit bet on NWST plus the 2.5 points and is valid down to pick-em.

Betting on dogs that have lost to the spread by 42 or more points over their past five games and facing a foe that has seen the total play Under by 55 or more points over their last five games has gone 43-26-2 ATS for 62.3% winning bets since 2015.

NWST is 18-4 ATS when facing a team that averages 14 or fewer forced turnovers per game after the 15th game of the regular season.

Southeast Missouri State vs Tennessee Tech
4:00 EST ESPN+ | Hooper Eblen Stadium
8-Unit Bet on the Under 146.5 points and is valid to 143.5 points.

Bet the under in games priced between 143 and 152 points, the home team has failed to cover the spread by 52 or more points over their last 5 games and facing a foe that has played Over the total by 29 or more points over their last 5 games has produced a 75-38 record for 61% winning bets over the past 20 seasons.

Tennessee Tech head coach Pelphrey is 8-0 Under when coming off an upset double-digit win and is 11-2-1 Under coming off a road win by double-digits.

Bowling Green vs. Northern Illinois

4 PM EST

8-Unit Best Bet on Bowling Green using the money line.

Betting on any team priced between the 3’s, after a game in which they made 50% of more of their three pointers, has a solid defense allowing 40 to 42.5% shooting, is facing a foe that is allowing 42.5 to 45% shooting, and after the 15th game of the regular season has earned an outstanding 38-12 ATS mark for 76% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Arkansas vs Florida
4 EST |
8-Unit bet on Arkansas +7.5 points and consider a sprinkle on the money line.

Betting on dogs of 6 or more points that are coming off a double-digit loss to a conference foe and facing a foe coming off an upset loss priced as the favorite has earned a 77-43-1 ATS record for 64% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Oakland vs IUPU

2 EST | Indiana Farmers Coliseum
8-Unit best bet on the Under 143.5 and isa valid to 141.5 points.

Bet the under in games priced between 143 and 152 points, the home team has failed to cover the spread by 52 or more points over their last 5 games and facing a foe that has played Over the total by 29 or more points over their last 5 games has produced a 75-38 record for 61% winning bets over the past 20 seasons.

Oakland is 7-0 Under in road games following a close win by six or fewer points in games played over the past two seasons.

Minnesota vs Indiana
8-Unit bet on Indiana minus the 4 points and is valid to 5.5 points.

Indiana is 8-0 ATS in home games and taking on a foe that has won 80% or more of their games spanning the past three seasons; 6-0 ATS in home games and facing an elite foe that is outscoring their foes by 12 or more PPG; 15-4 ATS after having won four or five of their last six games spanning the past three seasons; 9-1 ATS in home games following a game in which 125 or fewer points were scored.

Minnesota gas covered the spread in 8 consecutive games. Teams that are priced as a road dog and facing a conference foe and have covered in 7 straight games have gone just 16-50 SU and 25-41 ATS for 62% winning bets.

Maryland vs Minnesota
8-Unit Bet on Maryland +1.5 points and is good to Maryland priced as a 1.5-point favorite.

Minnesota is 0-7 ATS in home games following two games in which they committed 11 or fewer turnovers in each game. Maryland is coming off a 14-point loss to No.1 ranked Purdue on January 2 and shot just 33% from the field. IN the 2023 season, Maryland is 4-0 ATS following a game in which they shot less than 40% from the field. As a dog of 4.5 or fewer points, Maryland is 8-3 ATS following a game in which they shot less than 40% form the field.

Bowling Green vs Akron
James A. Rhodes Arena
Akron, Ohio
8-Unit Bet on BGU plus the 9.5 points and is valid down to 7.5 points.

Akron is 6-15 ATS when facing a winning record team over the past two seasons; 0-6 ATS following two games in which they allowed 65 or fewer points over the past two seasons. Akron head coach Morehead is 2-9 ATS following two games in which his team allowed 65 or fewer points.

From the predictive model, BGU is 126-23 SU and 48-12 ATS for 80% winning bets when holding a foe to fewer than 74 points and have an assist to turnover ratio above 1.0 since 2016.

South Dakota State vs. Weber State
Dee Events Center, Ogden, Utah
9 ET
8-UNIT bet on SDST plus 5.5 points and is valid if they remain the underdog.

Over the past 10 seasons betting on road underdogs including pick-em that allowed less than 35% shooting in their previous game and facing a foe that has shot at least 50% from the field in each of their three previous games has earned a 55-31 ATS record for 64% winning bets. This is a system created to exploit significant regression situations, which in this game is focused on seeing Weber State shoot below their recent three game average.

Tennessee Chattanooga vs. Samford
8-Unit Bet on Samford minus the 8.5 points and is valid up to 9.5 points.

Betting on home favorites between 3.5 and 9.5 points playing with four or more days of rest that are outscoring their opponents by double-digits and are coming off a game in which they led by 20 or more points at the half have earned a 63-16 SU record and 50-27-2 ATS mark good for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game occurs after the 10th game of the season these teams improve to 30-5 SU and 23-10-2 ATS for 70% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Western Carolina vs. The Citadel
8-Unit bet on Western Carolina minus the 3.5 points and is valid up to and including 5.5 points.

Betting on road teams in a conference matchup that won each fo their two previous games by 20 or more points and are facing a host that scored 45 or more points in the first half of their previous game has earned an outstanding 21-10 SU and 16-7-1 ATS mar good for 70% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

NEW MEXICO ST (5 - 8) at TULSA (7 - 3)

Friday, 12/22/2023 8:00 PM

8-UNIT Best Bet on Tulsa minus the seven points and is valid up to 8.5 points.

Betting on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are coming off B2B home wins and that are a member of a major D-1 conference and facing a team from a mid-major conference has gone 75-38-1 ATS for 67% winning bets since 1996.  

UNC-Ashville vs. Appalachian State
7:00 ET, Thursday
8-Unit Bet on UNC-Ashville (ASH) plus the 10.5 points and is valid down to 8.5 points.

Betting on underdogs between 10 and 19.5 points that is facing a team that has won 80% or more of their games on the season and has covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games has earned a highly profitable 86-43 ATS record for 66% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Liberty vs. Utah Valley State
8-Unit Best Bet on UVS plus the 5.5 points and is valid if the remain the underdog.

Betting on any team that is facing a foe that made 13 or more 3-point shots in their previous game and is a matchup where both teams make 65 to 69.9% of their free throws has earned an 84-40-ATS record for 68% winning bets over the past five seasons. If the game has a total between 125 and 140 points, our teams have gone 50-47 SU and 64-33 ATS for 66% winning bets. If our team is playing at home, they soar to a highly profitable 26-13 SU and 27-12 ATS record for 7-% winning bets.

UCONN v Seton Hall
8-Unit Bet on Seton Hall plus the points currently priced as 8.5-point underdogs and is valid down to 6.5 points.

Here are a few situational angles supporting the bet on Seton Hall in this Big East matchup tonight. SH head coach Holloway is 20-7-1 ATS when facing teams that are out rebounding their opponents by 4 or more boards per game; 44-26-2 ATS when priced as the underdog for his career.

Betting on underdogs using the money line that are facing a foe that shot 50% or higher in each of their last three games and is shooting 47.5% or between for the season and is now facing a defense allowing between 40 and 42% shooting has gone 66-62 SU averaging a +165 money line wager for a 31% ROI.

Bet on the Hall for an 8-Unit betting amount getting the points and sprinkle another unit on the money line.

Cornell vs Siena
8-Unit on Cornell minus the 13 points

Cornell is 17-5 ATS when facing a team that is averaging 57.5 or fewer PPG. Siena is 1-8 ATS following a blowout loss of 20 or more points; 4-14 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 of their last seven games.

From the predictive model we learn that Siena is 0-8 ATS when allowing 80 or more points in games played over the past three seasons.

Eastern Washington vs Cal Poly SLO
8-Unit bets bet on Cal Poly priced as a 6.5-point home dog and is valid down to 5 points.

Betting on team that is allowing between 45 and 47.5% shooting and is facing a foe that is shooting 47.5% or better form the field and is coming off a game in which they shot 60% or better from the field has earned a solid money-making 40-18 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Jacksonville State vs Wisconsin
8-Unit Best Bet on JS plus the 19 points and is valid to 17.5 points.

Betting on road underdogs between 10 and 20 points that has a losing record on the season and facing a host that has won 60 to 80% of their games on the season and that saw their previous game play Over the total by 24 or more points has earned a money-making 235-152 record good for 61% winning bets.

Wisconsin is 0-7 ATS when facing a team with a losing record in games played over the past seven seasons. JS is 9-2 ATS when playing a below average defense allowing 45% or higher shooting spanning the past two seasons.

North Alabama vs Charleston Southern
8-Unit Bet on CSU +5.5 points and consider a sprinkle on the money line. Also, consider betting 6.5 units preflop and then look to get 1.5 more units at +9.5 points during the first half of action only.

Betting on underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that has seen their last five games play Over the total by 33 or more points in total and is a matchup modestly losing record teams with win percentages between 40 and 50% on the season has earned a 64-48-5 ATS mark good for 57% winning bets and if our dog has an assists to turnover ratio of at least 1.1 they improve to a 15-8 ATS record good for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Marshall vs Toledo
8-Unit Bet on Marshall plus the 8.5 points. Consider betting 6.5 units preflop and then look to get 1.5 units on Marshall at 12.5 points during the first half of action.

Marshall is 18-7 ATS when playing their second game in the past seven days. Marshall head coach D’Antoni is 19-7 ATS when facing a team with a poor defense allowing 787 or more points per game and 45-27-1 ATS when facing a solid offensive team scoring 77 or more points per game. Toledo is scoring 80 points per game and allowing 77.

New Orleans vs San Francisco
8-Unit Best Bet on New Orleans plus 20 or more points

Betting on losing record road underdogs of 20 or more points and facing a host that has covered the spread in 6 or7 of their last eight games and has won 60 to 80% of their games on the season has earned a 53-21 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets over the past 25 seasons and is 18-9 ATS for 67% winners since 2014.

Pacific vs Fresno State
7 ET
8-Unit best bet on Pacific plus the 14 points and is valid if they remain a double-digit underdog. 

Bet on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that are outscored by eight or more PPG and have allowed 75 or more points in each of their last two games has earned a 155-96-2 ATS record for 62% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Milwaukee vs Cal Davis
5:00 EST
8-Unit best bet on Milwaukee plus 9.5 points and is valid down to 6.5 points.

Bet on dogs that have lose to the spread by a total of 42 or more points over their last five games  and now facing an opponent that has seen their last five games play Under the total by 55 or more points has earned a 41-24-2 ATS mark for 63% winning bets over the past 7 seasons and if the total in these games have been 145 or more points, these dogs have soared to a 14-4 ATS record good for 78% winning bets.

Iowa vs Iowa State

9:00 ET

8-Unit Best Bet on the OVER currently priced at 231 points

Betting the Over in a game with a total priced between 150 and 159.5 with one of the teams allowing 77 or more PPG and with that team trailing at the half in their previous game by 20 or more points has produced a 55-32 record good for 64% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Nebraska vs Minnesota

9:00 ET

8-Unit Best Bet on Nebraska -2 or fewer points.

Betting on road favorites including pick-em following a game in which they lost to the spread by 18 or more points and facing a host that has seen total play OVER by 24 or more points over their previous three games has earned a highly profitable 27-15 ATS for 64% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our road favorite show less than 40% from the field in their previous game, they have then gone 17-7 SUATS for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Longwood vs Morgan State
8-Unit On Longwood minus the 10 points and is valid up to 11.5 points.

From the predictive model, we learn that Longwood is 10-2 Ats when scoring 75 to 80 points and MS is just 1-8 ASTS when allowing 75 to 80 points over the last three seasons.

Betting on favorites between -4.5 and -11.5 points that have won each of their last three games by double-digits and facing a foe that has trailed in each of their last three games at the half by 5 or more points has produced a 21-2 SU record and 16-6-1 ATS mark for 73% winning bets over the past 15 seasons.

Illinois vs Rutgers
8-Unit bet on Rutgers using the money line if the spread is less than 2.5 point favorite.

Betting on teams priced between the 3’s that have led at the half by six or more points in each of their past three games and facing a foe that scored 75 or more points in each of their last three games has earned a 78-47-3 ATS record for 62.4% winners since 2015.

Detroit vs Cleveland State
8-Unit bet on winless Detroit getting 12 points and is valid as long as they remain a double-digit underdog.

Betting on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that are getting outscored by 12 or more points per game and is coming off a game in which there was 115 or fewer combined points scored has earned an 84-37 ATS record for 69% winning bets over the past 25 seasons.

Houston vs Xavier
8-Unit best bet on Houston minus the points, currently priced at 8.5 points.

Betting on road favorites that are coming off an ATS win priced as a double-digit favorite and playing with 5 or 6 days of rest has gone 76-20 SU and 56-38-2 ATS for 60% winning bets. If our team made three or more three pointers than their foe did in the previous game, their record soars to a highly profitable 33-5 SU and 27-9-2 ATS for 75% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Texas Tech vs Butler
8-Unit bet on Texas Tech using the money line.

From the predictive model we are looking for Akron to score 78 or more points and make at least 48% of their shots. In past games when Akron scored 78+ points and/or shot 48% from the field they went 23-3 ATS for 89% winning bets. If they scored 78+ points and made 80% or more of their free throws they went 36-2 SU and 16-8-2 ATS for 67% winning bets.
let’s put 8-Units on Akron.

Akron vs UNLV
8-Unit bet on Akron plus the 3.5 points and is valid down to 2.5 points.

From the predictive model we are looking for Akron to score 78 or more points and make at least 48% of their shots. In past games when Akron scored 78+ points and/or shot 48% from the field they went 23-3 ATS for 89% winning bets. If they scored 78+ points and made 80% or more of their free throws they went 36-2 SU and 16-8-2 ATS for 67% winning bets.
let’s put 8-Units on Akron.

Miami vs Kentucky
8-Unit Bet on Kentucky minus the 6 points and is goo up to 7.5

Betting on home favorites between 3.5 and 9.5 points that are outscoring their foes by 10 or more PPG and led at the half by 20 or more points in their previous game has produced a solid 147-112 ATS mark good for 57% winning bets since 2015. If the game has a total of 160 or more points our favorites have gone 55-22 ATS for 71% winning bets.

From the predictive model we learn that when Kentucky has scored 81 or more points they have gone an impressive 19-0 SU and 15-4 ATS over the past five seasons. Miami is just 2-16 SU and 3-15 ATS when allowing 81 or more points in games played over the past five seasons.

Yale vs Rhode Island
8-Unit bet on Rhode Island plus the 6 points and is valid down to 4.5 points.

The betting flows are favoring more action on Yale and the line could get to 6.5 points later today ahead of the tip.

Betting on home teams as an underdog including pick-em that is shooting 48% or better from the field and is out rebounding their foes by at least 7 per game has gone 28-6 ATS for 82% winning bets over the past five seasons and is an amazing 15-1 ATS over the past three seasons for 94% winners.

NJIT vs Wagner
8-Unit bet on NJIT plus the points, currently priced as 8.5 point dogs.

Betting on road dogs of three or more points that average between 65 and 75 PPG and have allowed 75 or more points in each of their last three games and facing a foe is averaging 64 or fewer PPG has earned a solid 28-16-1 ATS mark good for 64% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Alabama vs Ohio State
8-Unit Best bet on Alabama minus the 6.5 points and is valid up to 7.5 points.

Betting on home or neutral court favorites between 2.5 and 7 points that are coming off a win by 24 or more points and scored 90+ points in that win and now playing in a game with a total of 155 or fewer points has produced a 52-10 SU record and 41-19-2 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets over the past 7 seasons.

UNCA vs Lipscome
8-Unit best Bet on UNCA minus the 3.5 points and is valid up to -4.5 points.

Betting on home or neutral court favorites between 2.5 and 7 points that are coming off a win by 24 or more points and scored 90+ points in that win and now playing in a game with a total of 155 or fewer points has produced a 52-10 SU record and 41-19-2 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets over the past 7 seasons.

Michigan Vs Memphis
5 EST Wednesday
8-Unit Bet on Memphis using the money line.

Memphis is off to a solid 3-0 start to the season and have shot over 50% from the field in two of the games and allowed 33% or lower shooting in two of those contests as well. Michigan is coming off a horrid 94-86 loss to Long Beach State priced as a fifteen-point favorite. Memphis head coach Hardaway is 27-14 ATS following three or more consecutive wins and 21-10 ATS when facing a team that is outscoring their foes by 12 or more PPG.

From the predictive playbook we learn that Michigan is 34-75 ATS when they have allowed 75 or more points. Memphis is 9-2 ATS when they have committed 10 to 13 turnovers. So, the predictive mode is expecting Memphis to scire 75 or more points and to commit fewer than 13 turnovers.

Iowa vs Arkansas State
8:00 ET
8-Unit best bet on Iowa minus the 20.5 points and is valid up to and including -21.5 points

Betting on home favorites that have scored 80 or more points in each of their two previous games and facing a foe that scored 85 or more points in their previous game has earned a 115-70 ATS record good for 62% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. If the total in these games is 160 or more points our favorites have earned a solid 14-6 ATS record for 70% winning bets.

Same system applies to betting on Eastern Kentucky.

Tennessee Martin vs Eastern Kentucky
7:00 EST
8-Unit best Bet on the EKU minus the 8 points and is valid up to -9 points.

Betting on home favorites that have scored 80 or more points in each of their two previous games and facing a foe that scored 85 or more points in their previous game has earned a 115-70 ATS record good for 62% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. If the total in these games is 160 or more points our favorites have earned a solid 14-6 ATS record for 70% winning bets.

Merrimack vs Ohio State

7 ET

8-Unit Best Bet on Ohio State minus the 23.5 points and is valid up to and including 26 points.

Betting on double-digit favorites that are taking on a non-conference foe that had a winning record last season and is coming off a road upset win has earned a solid and consistent 75-5 SU and 51-25-4 ATS for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the total in these games is not greater than 140 points, these favorites produce big profits going 31-1 SU and 21-7-4 ATS for 75% winning bets. Bet Ohio State and lay the wood.

No.1 Kansas vs. No. 17 Kentucky
9:30 PM | Champions Classic, Chicago, IL
United Center
10-Unit Best Bet on Kansas minus the 6.5 points and is valid up to and including -7.5 points. I do believe if there is any market movement, the price will get cheaper to bet Kansas. So, look for -6 or lower throughout the day.

Betting on favorites between 3.5 and 9.5 points in the first 10 games of the regular season, both teams won at least 60% of their games last season, and our favorite has 3 or more returning starters than their foe has earned a 36-12-1 ATS record for 75% winners and 44-5 SU mark. So, consider betting 80% of your normal bet size preflop and then look to get on Kansas with the remaining 20% at -2.5 or even pick-em knowing this system has gone 44-5 SU!

Betting on favorites between 3.5 and 8.5 points playing on a neutral court that are coming off back-to-back wins by 20 or more points and scored at least 90 points in their last game have gone 31-18-1 ATS for 63% winning bets over the past 15 seasons.

Ranked teams that made 15 more field than their previous two foes are 60-8 SU and 38-19-2 ATS for 67% winning bets since 2006. If they are favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points have gone to a remarkable 20-2 SU and 18-3-1 ATS for 86% winning bets since 2006.

Florida International vs Miami (Fla)
Watsco Center, Coral Gables
7 PM
8-UNit best bet on FIU at 20 or more points

Miami is the 13th ranked team in the nation, but the models are suggesting this is just too many points to be giving FIU. This line opened at -20 and has quickly risen to 23 and even 23.5 at some books currently. I suggest betting 50% now and add the remaining 50% amount within the last hour till the tipoff.

Betting on double-digit road dogs that are coming off a horrid game losing by 15 or more points and were priced as the favorites has produced an 22-176 SU record, but a 138-58-2 ATS result for 70.4% winning bets.

Michigan vs St. Johns
6:30 PM | Madison Square Garden
8-Unit best Bet on Michigan +2.5 points and is valid down to pick-em.

This is part of the Gavitt Tipoff games. Betting on teams priced between the 3’s in the first 10 games of the regular season after leading their previous two games by at least 10 or more points at the half and have only two returning starters has produced a 120-64 ATS record good for 65% winning bets over the past 25 seasons.

St. Johns is just 1-7 ATS in home games after playing a game priced as the favorite; 3-10 ATS in home games after playing a game as a home favorite; 1-10 ATS in home games after one or more wins.

UAB vs Maryland
8-Unit Best bet on Maryland minus the points, currently priced at -5 and is good up -7.5 points.

Bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who have three or more returning starters than the foe and with both teams having won 60 to 80% of their games in the previous season has earned a 33-10 record good for 77% winning bets over the past 25 seasons.

Howard vs Georgia Tech
McCamish Pavilion, Atlanta, GA
7:30 PM ESPN+/ACCNX
8-Unit Best Bet on Howard plus the 10.5 points

Betting on dogs from 10 to 19.5 points in the first seven games of the season that are facing a non-tournament team form last season, who won four or more of their last games in the previous season, and who won between 45 and 55% of their games in the previous season have gone 38-13-1 ATS for 75% winning bets over the past 25 seasons.

From the predictive model we learn that Howard is 11-4 ATS for 73% winning bets in games that they scored 75 or more points and had more rebounds than their foes.

Arizona State vs Mississippi State
WinTrust Arena, Chicago, Ill
9:30 PM EST
8-Unit best bet on Miss. State minus the points

Returning starters and their production from the previous season a huge advantage in the early part of the season in college basketball. Miss State head coach Chris Jans has five returning starters while ASU head coach Bobby Hurley has just one.

Betting on teams that are the favorite by 3 to 9.5 points, with 3 or more returning starters than their foe and in a game involving two teams that won 60 to 80% of their games in the previous season, and with the current game occurring within the first 10 games of the season has earned a solid 30-8-1 ATS record good for 80% winning bets over the past 20 seasons.

Georgia Southern vs Georgia Tech
Opening College Hoops
8-Unit best Bet on Georgia Southern plus the points

Betting on road underdogs of 10 or more points in the first seven games of the regular season and are facing a foe that was not in the NCAA tournament and had a win percentage between 45 and 55% last season has earned an outstanding 37-7 ATS mark good for 84% winning bets.

NCAA 2023 Championship Best Bet 
8-Unit Best bet on San Diego State plus the 7.5 points and do believe you will see 8 and 8.5 potentially prior to the tip off.  
LIVE Betting Strategy 
We have reached the final 40 minutes of the NCAA Tournament and two unlikely programs have navigated the March madness maze to reach this distinguished event set to start at 9:20 PM EST at the NRG Stadium in Houston, TX. The Aztecs know they can come from behind and were down 14 points in the second half to FAU before rallying for the first-ever buzzer beater shot that was scored with the team trailing and not tied. In the third game of the season, Stanford was up 10 points and the Aztecs won by 12. They were down 13 points to Coastal Carolina before winning by six points. They were down 11 to the College of Charleston in the first round of the Tournament before rallying for a 6-point win. So, I like betting 70% preflop at +7.5 points and then adding 15% at 9.5 points and 15% at 11.5 points during the first half of action only. 
 
Although unlikely prior to the tournament, these two teams are the two best teams right now in the nation by many measures. They both prefer a slow, grinding, and physically tough style of game with UCONN ranking 252nd nationally averaging 66.7 possessions per game and SDST ranking 254th averaging 65.7 possessions per game.  

The Aztecs are the best defensive team in the nation overall and have been incredibly consistent at negating the three-point shot from an opponents’ scoring arsenal. For the season they allowed 26.50% 3-point shooting and were suffocating the best in the nation during the tournament. The Aztecs allowed 41% shooting from beyond the arc in their buzzer-beating win over FDU, who is the only team to have had success from beyond the arc. Prior to that Creighton shot a horrid 11.8%, No.1 seed Alabama shot 11.11%, Furman shot 23%, and College of Charlestown shot 20.83% from beyond the arc. Including FAU, only six teams managed to shoot 35% or better from beyond the arc against the sensational Aztec perimeter defense this season. The Aztecs held 29 opponent s to 35% or lower 3-point shooting of their 38 games played. Tennessee also matched that defensive feat and both teams ranked number 1 in the nation in this category. UCONN ranked third with 28 opponents under 35% shooting from 3-point territory, but based on SOS rankings was against significantly easier foes.  
  Teams playing in the Finals that have the lower defensive 3-point shooting percentage are 4-1 ATS for 80%. Teams like the Aztecs that three of their five previous opponents led by three or more points are 8-4 ATS for 67% in the Championship game. The Aztecs are 12-1 ATS when facing a foe that makes 8 or more 3-point shot attempts per game this season.  
 
1-UNIT Player Props 
Darrion Trammell Under 9.5 points 

Andre Jackson Under 7.5 points 
Matt Bradley Over 12.5 points 
 

Miami (FLA) vs UCONN 

10-Unit best bet on Miami plus the 5.5 points. Miami (29-7) will face UConn (29-8) in the second national semifinal on Saturday at NRG Stadium in Houston. It has been a banner season for the Hurricanes, who entered the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament as the top seed for the second time in program history. 

Miami has been led by senior guard Isaiah Wong, third-year sophomore forward NorchadOmier and fifth-year senior transfer guard Jordan Miller. Miller produced 27 points on perfect shooting to lead the Hurricanes to the 88-81 victory over the Longhorns on Sunday. 

The Miami/Ft. Lauderdale area has always been a perennial hot bed for football and baseball and may of their players had terrific careers in the pros. Both programs are making their first appearance in the Final Four, so add basketball as the third sport.  
 
Live Betting Strategy: This is a game that is going to a much faster pace than the first semifinal game. Betting 70% preflop on Miami at +5.5 and then add 30% more at +9.5 points during the first half of action. There will be scoring streaks by both teams. Overall, I do like Miami to pull off the uspet win here and move on the Finals – against FAU if everything works out there for us too. As a precursor I believe the line will be very close to pick-em if Miami and FAU meet in the Finals.  
 
Head coach Hurley is just 9-18 ATS in games away from the UCONN campus after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. Miami head coach Larranaga is 28-14 ATS away from home after scoring 80 or more points in two consecutive games. 
 
 
Player Prop Bets: 1-UNIT MAX each recommended 
San Diego State’s Matt Bradley Over 12.5 points 
Miami’s Nigel Pack Over 13.5 points –110 
Miami’s NorchardOmier Over 22.5 points, assists, rebounds –110 
UCONN’s Andre Jackson Under 5.5 assists –110 
UCONN’s Alex Karaban Under 4.5 rebounds +100 
 
 

Florida Atlantic vs San Diego State 
8-Unit best bet on Florida Atlantic plus the points. 
3-Unit Parlay on FAU and Miami (FLA) money lines 
5-Unit Best bet OVER the posted total 
 
This matchup is the first game of the two NCAA Tournament semifinals taking place at the NRG Stadium in Houston, TX. First, I do not see the backdrops and backgrounds hindering shooting performances in either of these semifinals as we had seen in recent games taking place in Indianapolis, for instance. The first national semifinal of the Final Four at NRG Stadium in Houston on Saturday will feature a pair of first-time participants: Florida Atlantic (35-3) and San Diego State (31-6). And while the Owls and Aztecs made surprising runs to Houston, their season-long success belies the notion that their appearances are an aberration. The Owls are currently riding an 11-game winning streak that isn't even their longest of this season. FAU had its 20-game win streak snapped by an 86-77 road loss to UAB on Feb. 2. 

To many, the Owls might seem to be a bunch of unknowns. However, FAU leads the nation in victories and is ranked 15th in efficiency ratings. The Owls are no Cinderella and from a SDST perspective more akin to that evil stepsister.  

 
FAU uses their bench better than any other program and no player is averaging more than 30 minutes per game. At 13.1 points per game, Martin is one of three Owls averaging double figures in points with five-plus rebounds alongside fellow sophomores Johnell Davis and Vladislav Goldin. 

FAU has thrived via collective effort, and white-knuckle tournament victories over Memphis, Fairleigh Dickinson, Tennessee and Kansas State validated the Owls' egalitarian approach to success. 

FAU is 14-3 when facing defensive teams averaging 14 forced turnovers PPG this season and 25-11 ATS when facing teams that are called for 17 or more fouls per game in games played over the past two seasons. FAU is 23-9 after covering the spread in two of their last three games spanning the past three seasons.  

 
Betting the Over in any Tournament semifinal game (NCAA, NIT, or CBI) with a total between 130 and 139.5 points and with one of the teams coming into the game on a 7 or more-game win streak has earned a 53-32-2 Over record over the past 25 years. 

Betting the Over in any Tournament semifinal game (NCAA, NIT, or CBI) with a total between 130 and 139.5 points and with one of the teams coming into the game on a 7 or more-game win streak has earned a 53-32-2 Over record over the past 25 years. 

UCONN vs Gonzaga
Elite-8 Round
Bet the OVER 153 points currently. My strategy will be to bet 75% preflop OVER the total. As you may have seen on this Tweet and heard on the ERSPN Syracuse shows and Sports Map Radio shows, games that have played UNDER the first half total by 10 or more points have gone a perfect 4-0 OVER since last Saturday alone using the LIVE in game bet that can be executed during the half time break. So, if this first half does play Under by 10 or more points, add the 25% remaining bet amount on the OVER.
     Plus, this one, from the Elite 8 on through the Championship game, DOGS that led at the half went on to a 17-6-1 ATS record for 74% winning bets. So, if Gonzaga is leading at the half, look to get a pizza money size bet on the books at pick-em during the first 7 minutes of the second half only. 

Gonzaga is 7-1 over the posted total on facing elite offensive teams scoring 77 or more points per game in games played this season. UCONN is 12-3 over the total after allowing 65 or fewer points in three consecutive games in all games played over the last two seasons. The head coach Mark Few is 31-15 over the posted total when playing on a neutral court and priced as an underdog for his coaching career.

Florida Atlantic vs Kansas State
8-Unit Best Bet OVER the posted total of 143.5 points
The same betting strategy I am using in the UCONN vs Gonzaga game also applies to this matchup. 
     Kansas State is 12-3 over the posted total and road gains when playing against a team with a winning record after game #15 of this season. Kansas State is 16-8 over the poster total when facing solid shooting teams making 45% or more of their shots in games played this season. Kansas State is 7-0 over the posted total in road games or games not played at home when facing excellent ball handling teams committing 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season. Florida Atlantic is 10-1 over the posted total after a combined score of 125 or fewer points in all games played over the last three seasons.

From the predictive model we are expecting both teams to shoot at least 44% from the field and make at least 78% of their free throw attempts. In past games in which Florida Atlantic met or exceeded these performance measures the over has gone 6-1 for 86% winning bets. In past games in which Kansas State met or exceeded these performance measures has seen the over go 7-2-1 for 78% winning bets.

Miami (Fla) vs Houston 
8-Unit best bet on the Under 138 points. 
Betting the Under in the Sweet 16 Round of the NCAA Tournament with a dog 3 or more points being a member of a Major Conference (B10, B12, SEC, ACC, PAC-12, BEAST) and the favorite not from the Major Conferences has seen the Under go 9-0 Under.  
Miami is 11-3 Under in road games facing a foe that averages 17 or fewer fouls per game in games played this season. Houston is 21-11 Under when facing a non-conference foe in games played over the past two seasons. Miami head coach Larranaga is 47-26 Under after having won four of the last five games for his career. 

San Diego State vs Alabama 
8-Unit Best Bet Over the posted total of 137 points 
Betting the Over in the NCAA Tournament with a total between 130 and 139.5 points, one of the teams (Alabama) has won 15 or more of their last 20 games and playing with 5 or 6 days of rest has earned a highly profitable 14-8 Over good for 64% winning bets. If the line for the game is at least a –2 favorite, the record is 8-2 Over for 80% winners. 

Alabama is 8-2 Over following four consecutive games in which they forced four or fewer turnovers in games played this season. 

North Texas vs Oklahoma State 
8-Unit bet on the OVER currently priced at  
 
Betting the OVER when the total is 127.5 or lower involving as matchup of excellent defensive teams allowing a shooting percentage of 40% or lower on the season, after game number 17, and a matchup of solid rebounding teams out rebounding their foes by 3 to 6 boards PG on the season has earned a 49-25-2 Over for 67% winning bets. 

North Texas is 13-5 OVER when facing a team that is averaging at least 21 three-point shots per game. OKSTATE is 20-6 ATS when having won three of their last four games spanning the past three seasons and 8-1 ATS having won four of their last five games spanning the past three seasons.  
 

TCU vs Gonzaga 
8-Unit best bet on TCU plus the 4.5 points 

Here again, you can opt to bet 70% preflop plus the points and then look to add 30% money line at any price of +300 or better during the first half only.  

TCU has shot poorly recently and have played Under their team total by more than 20 points over their last 5 games. They are facing a team in Gonzaga that has struggled defensively this season and has also played Over their team totals by 15 points over their last five games. In the NCAA Tournament, teams that have played Under their team total by 20 or more points over their last five games and facing a foe that has played Over their team total by 15 or more points has seen the team, in this case, TCU, go 29-12 SU and 27-13-1 ATS for 68% winning bets. If it is a Round of 32 matchup, our team has gone 10-4 ATS for 71% winners and 3-0 ATS if priced as the underdog. 
Gonzaga ranks 357th of the 363 teams in consistency ratings and this makes Gonzaga extremely vulnerable to a significant regression after shooting 50% from the field in each of their past two games. We have a team in TCU that ranks 11th in second chance scoring in the nation matched up against Gonzaga, who ranks 105th nationally in this category defensively.  

From the predictive model, TCU is 40-12 ATS for 77% winners when getting 10 or more offensive rebounds and shooting at least 48% from the field and 10-2 ATS for 83% winners if priced as a dog of 6.5 or fewer points.  

Indiana vs Miami (FLA) 

8-Unit bet on Indiana using the money line 
Miami head coach Larranaga is just 12-25 ATS when playing their second road game in three days.  
From the predictive model, Indiana is 19-2 SU (91%) and 15-4-1 ATS in games scoring 75 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers in games played over the past three seasons. Miami is 14-17 SU and 11-19-1 ATS for 37% when allowing 75 or more points and having the same or more turnovers in games played over the past three seasons.  

Florida Atlantic vs FDU 
8-Unit best bet on FAU minus 15.5 points 
4-Unit bet UNDER the total currently at 149 points. 
I suggest not betting this total preflop and instead look to get 50% of your 4-Unit amount at 154.5 points and another 25% at 147.5 points and the remaining 25% at 159.5 points during the first half of action only. The probability is quite high that the 154.5 price tag will be made available during the first half of the action given FAU’s outstanding offense that ranks 25th nationally averaging 78 PPG and 22nd nationally with a 55% effective field goal percentage. FAU is the best nationally sporting a 0.635 assist-to-turnover defensive ratio, but FDU does their scoring without significant ball movement as they rank 150th nationally with a 0.515 assist-to-field goal made ratio.  
I would stay away from any parlay bet. 

In the NCAA Tournament, a matchup of teams that has have beaten the spread by 55 or more points over their last 10 games have gone 18-8 ATS for 69% winning bets and 16-8-2 Under for 67% winning bets.  

St. Mary’s vs UCONN 
8-Unit Best Bet on ST. Mary’s +3.5 points 
STM is 15-7 ATS when facing teams that are attempting 21 or more 3-point shots per game. STM is 22-12-1 ATS in games with a posted total of 129.5 or fewer points in games played over the past three seasons. UCONN head coach Hurley is just 7-19 ATS away from home and has won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games.  
From the predictive model, STM is 28-2 SU and 22-6 ATS in games in which they scored 72 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers in games played over the past three seasons. 

Pittsburgh vs Xavier 
8-Unit bets bet over the total currently priced at 147.5 points 
Xavier is 18-9 Over when facing a team that has a solid defense allowing 42 or less opponent shooting in games played over the past two seasons. Xavier is 12-3 OVER following a game in which they did not cover the spread. Pittsburgh is 12-3 OVER following four consecutive games in which they forced 14 or fewer opponents in each game; 13-4 Over following an upset win in games played over the past three seasons.  

The predictive model projects that both teams will score at least 80 points each making this a terrific betting opportunity. If the game starts out slowly and the total drops to a price level between 140 and 144 points during the first half add a bit more to your bet with a sprinkle. An alternative is to bet 75% preflop and then add 25% at 145 or better during the first half of action. Or wait for the first half to be completed and if the first half plays Under then add to the Over bet at that point. There is a significant trend of games that play Under in the first half then play Over full game based on the closing total in the NCAA Tournament.  

 
Xavier is 32-5-1 OVER for 87% winning bets when scoring 80 or more points over the past three seasons. Pittsburgh is 14-3 OVER for 82% winning bets when scoring 80 or more points since 2020.  

Maryland vs Alabama  
8-Unit bet on Maryland plus the 8.5 points, which could move to 9 points by the time I am done writing this research. From the predictive model, Maryland is 18-4 ATS for 82% winning bets when shooting at least 44% from the field, getting 38 or more rebounds and committing 11 or fewer turnovers in games played over the past 10 seasons. In the NCAA Tournament any team that meets or exceeds these performance measures has earned a 62-13-2 ATS record good for 83% winning bets over the past 15 tournaments and 20-4 ATS for 83% winners in the last three Tournaments. 

Kent State vs Indiana 
8-Unit best bet on Indiana minus the 4.5 points 
Betting on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points facing a foe that is seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA Tournament and is on a four or more-game win streak has earned a 39-18 ATS record for 68.4% winning bets over the past 15 NCAA Tournaments. If our team has recorded a season-to-date offensive efficiency rating of between 95 and 112 points per 100 possessions, they record improves to 33-12-1 ATS for 73% winners. If we dive deeper into the database and isolate teams that have posted a pace of at least 68, the record soars to 26-9-1 ATS for 74% winning bets. 

Kent State is 6-16 ATS in NCAA Tournament games over the past 25 events.  
From the predictive analytics, we expect Indiana to make 48% of all shots and make at least 38% from beyond the arc. Indiana is 27-12 ATS (69%) when shooting at least 48% from the field in all games played over the past three seasons. Indiana is 16-6 ATS (73%) last 3 seasons in games in which they made at least 48% fo their shots and at least 38% from beyond the arc. Kent State is 2-8 ATS last three seasons allowing 48% shooting and 38% shooting from beyond the arc.  

Kansas State vs Montana State 
8-Unit Best bet on Kansas State minus the 7.5/8 points and is good up to 9.5 points.  
Betting on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the Round of 64 facing a foe that is seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA Tournament and is on a four or more-game win streak has earned a 24-13-1 ATS record for 65% winning bets over the past 15 NCAA Tournaments. If our game is one of the more popular games and betting volume for spread and money line bets is 11,000 or more in total, then our favorite soars to 35-11 for 76% ATS winners. So, far there have been 56,000 bets made on this matchup, Montana State is on an 8-game win streak and seeded 14. 
K-State is 10-2 ATS when facing a foe that has won between 60 and 80% of their games after the 15th game in each of the past two seasons. They are also 7-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more games spanning the past two seasons. Teams that are on a two or more-game losing streak entering the NCAA Tournament and priced as favorites of 6 or more points are a solid 6-1 ATS and 7-0 SU. 

Florida Atlantic vs Memphis 
Friday, March 17, 2023 
Round 1 of the NCAA Tournament 
Nationwide Arena - Columbus, OH 
8-Unit Best Bet on Florida Atlantic  

No matter what conference a team resides in, a season winning 30 or more games is always impressive and Florida Atlantic posted a 31-3 SU mark and 21-10-1 ATS mark with two games played having no posted betting lines. Over the past 10 NCAA Tournaments dogs that have won 30 or more games are 2-2 SU and 4-0 ATS so Memphis may be caught basking in their glory of upsetting No.1 ranked Houston in their previous game. 
     FAU is 7-1 ATS after two straight games allowing 65 or fewer points. Memphis is 0-6 ATS after covering the spread I two or more straight games this season. Memphis is 4-7-1 ATS following an excellent game in which they shot 50% from the field and allowed 33% or lower shooting in games played over the past five seasons. Memphis head coach Hardaway is a money-burning 9-20 ATS following three games in which this team scored 75 or more points.  

     From the predictive model, we are looking for FAU to score 75 or more points and have 13 or fewer turnovers. In past games in which they have met these performance measures has led them to an amazing 15-7 SU and 17-4-1 ATS mark for 81% winning bets since the 2015 season.  
     Last, consider the in-game betting strategy that I plan to use by placing 60% preflop on FAU plus the points and then adding 30% at FAU +5.5 and 10% at +350 using the money line.  
 
 

Providence vs Kentucky 
8-Unit bet on Providence plus 4 points. 
Kentucky is 1-8 ATS when facing strong shooting teams making 45% or more of their shots this season. Providence is 21-10 ATS when facing a foe that is outscoring their opponents by 4 or more PPG in games played over the past two seasons. Providence head coach Cooley is 12-4 ATS following three consecutive losses to conference foes. 

From the predictive model, Providence is 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS when scoring 82 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers in games played over the past three seasons.  

Texas A&M vs Alabama 
SEC Championship Game 
8-Unit Bet on Alabama minus the points and is good up to 9.5, although it won’t get there by game time. Teams that are favored in conference tournaments that lost two same-season games to the foe, and with that foe shooting higher percentage over their last three games than their season-to-date shooting average and with both teams play on back-to-back days has seen them go 24-8 SU and 22-10 ATS for 69% winning bets.  
 
Alabama is on a 14-4-1 ATS streak when coming off a double-digit win and 7-1 ATS when coming off back-to-back double-digit wins this season. 
 
 

Princeton vs Yale 
8-Unit bet on Yale –3 points 
8-Unit Bet UNDER 140 points 
Interesting to note that Yale is the home team despite playing on Princeton’s home court at Jadwin Gymnasium in Princeton, NJ. This does make the line a bit cheaper and adds value to backing Yale in this spot to win and earn the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. 
This season, the Ancient Eight saw Princeton and Yale tie for the regular season Championship with Princeton getting to host their version of the Final Four. To their credit they get the IVY League Tournament done in just 2 days on a weekend.  

I suggest betting no more than a 2.5-unit amount on the parlay and would encourage you to wait till the game starts and look to get Yale at pick-em and the Under at 146.5 or more points during the first half of action. Perhaps 1.5 units parlay preflop and then 1 more unit in-game.  
 
Princeton lost at Yale 87-65 back on January 28 as 3-point dogs and lost at home in overtime 93-83 as 1.5-point favorites. Dogs of 3.5 or fewer points playing in a conference tournament, having lost two same season games to the foe, who has covered the spread in at least three consecutive games have seen the Under go 20-7 for 74% winners.  

Dogs that are playing in their conference tournament and that lost two same season games to the current foe, with a total between 135 and 145 points and with that foe averaging a higher shooting percentage over their last three games than what they shot for the season have gone just 18-27 ATS for 40%. 
 

Princeton vs Yale 
8-Unit bet on Yale –3 points 
8-Unit Bet UNDER 140 points 
Interesting to note that Yale is the home team despite playing on Princeton’s home court at Jadwin Gymnasium in Princeton, NJ. This does make the line a bit cheaper and adds value to backing Yale in this spot to win and earn the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. 
This season, the Ancient Eight saw Princeton and Yale tie for the regular season Championship with Princeton getting to host their version of the Final Four. To their credit they get the IVY League Tournament done in just 2 days on a weekend.  

I suggest betting no more than a 2.5-unit amount on the parlay and would encourage you to wait till the game starts and look to get Yale at pick-em and the Under at 146.5 or more points during the first half of action. Perhaps 1.5 units parlay preflop and then 1 more unit in-game.  
 
Princeton lost at Yale 87-65 back on January 28 as 3-point dogs and lost at home in overtime 93-83 as 1.5-point favorites. Dogs of 3.5 or fewer points playing in a conference tournament, having lost two same season games to the foe, who has covered the spread in at least three consecutive games have seen the Under go 20-7 for 74% winners.  

Dogs that are playing in their conference tournament and that lost two same season games to the current foe, with a total between 135 and 145 points and with that foe averaging a higher shooting percentage over their last three games than what they shot for the season have gone just 18-27 ATS for 40%. 
 

Xavier vs Marquette

8-Unit best bet on Xavier plus the two points
Betting on any team priced between the threes and they scored 75 or more points in each of the last two games and are facing an opponent coming off two consecutive wins by 6 or fewer points has earned an outstanding 43-22-1 against the spread for 66.2% winning bets over the last five seasons. If in a conference tournament, these teams are 6-1 SUATS for 86% over the past 5 seasons. This will be the first time for Xavier to return to the NCAA Tournament and they will be attractively priced as a bet to make the Elite-8. So, keep that in mind.

Texas vs Kansas
8-Unit bet on the Texas Longhorns plus 1.5 points and if the line goes to +1 or pick, then take the cheaper price3 between the money line and the +1 spread. 
Big 12 Tournament Championship Game at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, MO
From the predictive model we learn that Texas is a solid 10-1 SUATS when making at least 80% of their free throw shots and scoring 75 or more points in games played over the past three seasons. Kansas is just 3-11 SU and 2-12 ATS when allowing 75 or more points and the foe made at least 80% of their free throws in games played over the past three seasons.

Fordham vs Dayton
8-Unit best bet on the Fordham Rams plus the 6.5 points
From the predictive model, we expect Fordham to score 65 or more points and have 11 or fewer turnovers. In past games in which Fordham met or exceeded these performance measures has led them to an outstanding 17-4 straight up record for 81% wins and 19-2 against the spread for 91% winning bets over the past three seasons.
 This game will start approximately 30 minutes after the conclusion of the first semifinal game between VCU and Saint Louis. Quisenberry’s 22 points led Fordham past LaSalle in their last game. He  also contributed six rebounds for the Rams (25-7). Khalid Moore scored 20 points while shooting 6 for 14 (2 for 5 from 3-point range) and 6 of 8 from the free throw line, and added 11 rebounds. Will Richardson was 4 of 7 shooting (2 for 4 from distance) to finish with 10 points. One of the keys to fornham winning this game is to force the tempo to be faster which is something that Dayton does not do well in. Date and ranked 345th of 363 Division One basketball programs in pace of play averaging just 64.31 possessions per game. Fordham ranks 42nd in the nation averaging 70.6 possessions per game. Fordham is 25-1 and 20-5-1 against the spread for 80% winning bets when scoring 65 or more points in games played this season. Slicing the data a bit further we find that Fordham is a perfect 6-0 straight up and against the spread when scoring between 65 and 69 points in games played this season.

Cornell vs Yale 
8-Unit best bet Under the posted total, currently priced at 149 points 
This game start at 11:00 AM EST, Saturday 
Betting the Under in a conference tournament game with a dog of not more than 9.5 points that has failed to cover the spread or pushed in 8 or more of their last 10 games and facing a foe that has covered the spread or pushed in 8 or more of their last 10 games has gone a perfect 7-0 UNDER. All, but one of these Under wins did not win by double digits. 
 
So, if this game starts out faster than expected and the in-game total is approaching 156 or kore, then add a sprinkle to the preflop bet. Another option is to bet 60% preflop at 149 points and add 20% more at 155.5 and 20% more at 157.5 points. 

Penn State vs Northwestern 
8-Unit best bet on Penn State plus the 1.5 points. 

The following situational algorithm has earned a 15-8 SU record and 20-3 ATS record for 87% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and requires a bet on neutral court teams, PSU, that defeated the current opponent as an underdog and with that foe coming off a double digit road win. If our team is the dog, the record goes to an incredible 15-1 ATS for 94% winning bets.  
 
 

North Texas vs UAB 
8-Unit best bet on UAB money line or any dog line of +1.5 or more.  
Betting on teams lined between a 3.5-point dog and favorite in conference tournament games that are facing a foe that led their last three games at the half by a total of 30 or more points and our team has scored a total of 240 or more points over their last three games has earned an 18-7-1 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. 
This matchup is a semifinal game in the Conference USA Tournament being held at the Ford Center at the Star and set to tip at 2:00 EST. The betting line opened with UAB priced as a 1-point underdog and early flows suggest that the line could go to +1.5 points. The money line flows will shift more to UAB at +1.5 points and there is not enough market strength to push the line past +2. Moreover, the early start limits the amount of time remaining for any steam to come in on North Texas.  
Over the past three seasons, UAB is on a solid 22-11 ATS win streak when facing a free throw shooting team making 72% or more of those shots from the stripe. North Texas is just 2-10 ATS coming off back-to-back blowout wins by 20 or more points. 
From the predictive playbook we learn that UAB is 39-2 SU and 22-9-2 ATS for 71% in games in which they had fewer turnovers and more rebounds than their opponent in games played over the past three seasons. 

Ohio State vs Michigan State 
8-Unit best bet on MSU minus the 4.5 points 
OSU has won four of their last five games and covered five straight to the number but looks like the season ends this afternoon. In conference tournament games, betting on a team that had at least one BYE and taking on a losing record foe that is playing on back-to-back days and has covered the spread by at least 25 points has earned a 16-8-1 ATS record for 67% winners. If the foe has covered the spreads by at least 35 points, the record goes to 9-3-1 ATS for 75% winners and are 25-1 straight-up (SU). OSU has covered the spread by 43 points over their past 5 games, so the market now has over valued them. 

Villanova vs Creighton 
8-Unit best bet on Villanova plus the points, currently 5 points. I like betting 60% preflop and then looking to get ‘Nova +9.5 points in-game for the remaining 40% bet amount. 
Betting on teams that defeated the opponent as a dog in their earlier meeting and is coming off a double-digit road win has earned a 39-14 ATS record for 74% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. If our team is priced as a dog of not more than 8 points, the record has been 15-9 ATS over the past three seasons. 

From the predictive model, Villanova is 7-1 SUATS as a dog, hitting 80% or more of their shots from the charity stripe, and having the better assist-to-turnover ratio in games played over the past 5 seasons. 

LaSalle vs Fordham 
8-Unit best bet on the Fordham Rams minus the 6 points 
The following system has earned a highly profitable 23-10 ATS record over the past five seasons. Bet on neutral court favorites in a matchup of teams allowing between 67 and 74 PPG and with the dog coming off back-to-back double-digit wins. Drilling down a bit further we learn that betting on favorites in conference tournament action of 3.5 or more points have gone 19-5 SU and 17-7 ATS for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. 
Fordham is 20-9 ATS when facing a foe that averages 21 or more 3-point shot attempts in games played over the past two seasons; 23-7-1 ATS when playing only their second game in the past 7 days in games played over the past two seasons. 

From the predictive mode, we expect Fordham to score 75 or more points and have between 10 and 13 turnovers and when they have achieved this have gone to a 20-3 SU record and 18-4-1 ATS record for 82% winning bets. If they are facing a conference foe an even better 16-3 SU and 12-2-1 ATS record for 86% winning bets. 
 
 

DePaul vs Xavier 
8-Unit best bet on Xavier minus the 12 points 
Betting on double-digit favorites in conference tournaments that are allowing 74 or more PPG and facing a foe that is averaging 75 or fewer points, and the total is bet3ween 150 and 159.5 points have earned an 11-3 ATS record for 79% winning bets.  
 

Colorado State vs San Diego State 
8-Unit best bet on CSU plus the 8.5 points and add a little sprinkle to the money line. 
CSU is a perfect 8-0 ATS as a neutral court dog of 6.5 to 9.5 points. SDST head coach Dutcher is just 8-17 ATS in games away from home coming off two or more consecutive Under results for his career. 

From the predictive model, CSU is 18-6 ATS for 75% winning bets when shooting 45% or better from the field, making 77% or better from the charity stripe and committing 12 or fewer turnovers. 

Ohio State vs Iowa 
8-Unit best bet UNDER the total currently at 154.5 points 
Betting the Under in a neutral court venue with a total between 150 and 159.5 points, averages 70 to 74 PPG and facing a defense that allows 74 to 78 PPG has earned a highly profitable 37-22-1 Under record good for 63% winning bets since 2015. If the game is in a conference tournament the Under has produced a 21-11-1 record for 66% winning bets since 2015. 
 

LSU vs Georgia
8-Unit Best Bet on Georgia plus the three points
SEC Tournament - First Round - Bridgestone Arena - Nashville, TN

LSU is 7-20 against the spread when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of each of the last two seasons. LSU is 5-13 against the spread when facing teams that are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game after game #15 in each of the last two seasons. LSU is 2-11 when facing solid ball handling teams committing 14 or fewer turnovers per game after game #15 of this season. LSU head coach McMahon is 3-14 against the spread after five consecutive games in which they forced the opponent to commit 14 or fewer turnovers.

from the predictive model we are expecting Georgia to allow 71 or fewer points and have the better assist the turnover ratio. In past games in which Georgia has met or exceeded these performance measures has led them to earn an outstanding 32-2 SU and 29-4-1 ARS mark good for 88% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Boston College vs UNC

8-Unit bets bet on UNC minus 11.5 points
 consider betting 50% on UNC minus 11 1/2 points preflop and then look for in game at anything South of 6 1/2 points if it's in the second quarter and we haven't added to the 50% pre flop bet and consider higher numbers like 7 1/2 or even 8 1/2 points to complete the bet wager.

North Carolina is 22-10 against the spread after two straight games forcing opponents to commit 11 or fewer turnovers in games played over the last two seasons.

From the predictive model we are expecting North Carolina to allow no more than 70 points and get at least 43 rebounds. in past games in which North Carolina met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to earn a 51-4 SU record and 37-16 ATS record for 70% winning bets over the past five seasons. 

North Dakota State versus Oral Roberts 

Summit tournament championship game at the Denny Sanford premier center in Sioux Falls. 

North Dakota State is coming off an 89-79 win over South Dakota state priced AS4.5 underdogs. North Dakota State is just 2-9 against the spread after scoring 85 or more points in games played over the last two seasons. World Roberts is 9-1 against the spread when playing only the third game in a week in games played over the last two seasons. North Dakota head coach Richman is 5-14 against the number when facing a team that is scoring 84 or more points per game for his career. 

From the predictive model we are looking for Oral Roberts university to score at least 80 points in this game and have no more than 10 turnovers. North Dakota State is 0-16 straight up and 1-15 against the spread when allowing 80 or more points and forcing 10 or fewer turnovers in games played over the last three seasons. 

St. Peters vs Fairfield 
Metro Atlantic Tournament - First Round - Boardwalk Hall - Atlantic City, NJ 
8-Unit best Bet on STP plus the 2.5 points 
This line has the chance to move as low as pick-em and if it goes to anything below a 1.5-point dog, consider the money line if it is cheaper than getting the point or if it steams to a –1 point favorite. 
St. Peters is 9-2 ATS in March games over the last 2 seasons; 22-12 ATS after three consecutive conference games over the last two seasons. STP head coach Mason is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when playing against a marginal losing team winning 40 to 49% of their games for his career. 
 
 
From the predictive mode, Fairfield is 14-7 SU and 15-5 ASTS for 75% when allowing 65 or fewer points and committing 12 or fewer turnovers in games played over the past three seasons. 

UNC-Wilmington vs College of Charleston 
8-Unit best bet on College of Charleston 
Colonial Athletic Tournament - Championship - St. Elizabeths East Entertain 

The College of Charleston is 8-1 against the spread when playing on one or no days of rest this season. They are also 8-1 against the spread when playing only their third game of the past seven days this season. They are also 9-2 against the spread in road games after covering four or five of their last six against the spread in games played over the last two seasons.Head coach of College of Charleston Kelsey is 16-5 against the spread when playing on one or fewer days of rest over his coaching career. He is also 27-12 in road games after one or more consecutive games that played over the total for his career. Last, he is 35-19 against the spread in road games when playing against a team with a winning record for his career. 

From the predictive model we are expecting the College of Charleston to score 77 or more points and make 10 or more 3-point shots in this game. In past games in which they met or exceeded this pair of performance measures has seen them go 18-5 straight up and against the spread for 78% winning bets. 

UNC-Wilmington vs Hofstra 
8-Unit Best bet on UNC-Wilmington plsu the points, currently priced at +7.5 points. 
UNCW head coach Sidle is 14-3 ATS in road games playing with no more than a single day of rest; 16-4 ATS coming off a six or fewer points; 21-6 ATS when facing a foe that is making eight or more 3-point shots per game.  

The predictive metrics are looking for Hofstra to score 70 or fewer points and for UNCW to have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games, in which UNCW met these performance measures has earned a 17-1 SU record and a 14-4 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets over the past three seasons.  

San Francisco vs Santa Clara 

West Coast Tournament - Quarterfinals - Orleans Arena - Paradise, NV 
8-Unit best bet on Santa Clara minus the three points 
Betting on teams priced between the 3’s in a conference tournament, and has had at least 5 days rest, won at least 60% of their games on the season and facing a foe that has won between 45 and 55% of their games on the season has earned a 20-10 ATS record good for 67% winning bets. 
Betting on teams priced between the 3’s and had at least a first-round BYE (more than 5 days of rest) in their conference tournament and is facing a foe playing on back-to-back days has earned a 39-15-3 ATS record for 72% winning bets. 
 

Alabama vs Texas A&M 
8-Unit best bet on Alabama getting 2 points. 

The two best teams in the SEC Conference square off in this showdown, but there is nothing at stake. Alabama is the #1 seed with a 16-4 conference record and A&M is locked in the #2 seed heading into the SEC Tournament this week. Alabama has used only 3 different starting lineups this season and the quintet of Bediako, Bradley, Clowney, Miller, and Spears have amassed a 17-3 record. They will start today against A&M. 
Alabama fought back from a 17-point deficit in the second half against Auburn by using a 16-0 run that started with about 12 minutes left in the game. With Jahvon Quinerly leading the way with 24 points, Alabama coach Nate Oats saw his club win 90-85 in overtime and end up cutting down the nets to celebrate its second SEC regular-season title in three years. It was the third consecutive close shave by the Crimson Tide and star freshman Brandon Miller. Alabama has won four straight, with the last three decided by a total of 10 points. 

Top-10 road teams in a matchup facing a foe that is ranked between 11 and 25, both teams have won 20 or more games, but the team ranked in the Top-10 has lost fewer games than the foe and are priced between the 3’s are 29-14-3 ATS for 67.4% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.  

Betting on road teams priced between the 3’s, have allowed 80 or more points in each of their last two games, and facing a foe that has played four consecutive games in which they and their foes scored fewer than 70 points.  

Alabama vs Texas A&M 
8-Unit best bet Under the posted total of 150 points 
Betting the Under in a game lined between the 3’s, the road team has allowed 80 or more points in their last two games, and is facing a host that has scored 70 or fewer and allowed 70 or fewer over their last three games has earned a 26-8 Under record for 76% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. This system is 4-0 over the past two seasons and only 2020 was a losing money one when it went 1-0 Over.  
For in-game betting place 50% preflop at the best price you are offered and then look to add another 50% at 162.5 points full fame and only during the first half of action. If they get out to a slow start, then don’t add anymore to the bet.  

For the in-game betting parlay look to get ‘Bama at +6.5 and the total Under at 157.5 points. This pair of prices may not occur during the first half of the action and if it doesn’tthen so be it and resist the temptation to force the bet. 
 

Alabama vs Texas A&M 
8-Unit best bet on Alabama getting 2 points. 

The two best teams in the SEC Conference square off in this showdown, but there is nothing at stake. Alabama is the #1 seed with a 16-4 conference record and A&M is locked in the #2 seed heading into the SEC Tournament this week. Alabama has used only 3 different starting lineups this season and the quintet of Bediako, Bradley, Clowney, Miller, and Spears have amassed a 17-3 record. They will start today against A&M. 
Alabama fought back from a 17-point deficit in the second half against Auburn by using a 16-0 run that started with about 12 minutes left in the game. With Jahvon Quinerly leading the way with 24 points, Alabama coach Nate Oats saw his club win 90-85 in overtime and end up cutting down the nets to celebrate its second SEC regular-season title in three years. It was the third consecutive close shave by the Crimson Tide and star freshman Brandon Miller. Alabama has won four straight, with the last three decided by a total of 10 points. 

Top-10 road teams in a matchup facing a foe that is ranked between 11 and 25, both teams have won 20 or more games, but the team ranked in the Top-10 has lost fewer games than the foe and are priced between the 3’s are 29-14-3 ATS for 67.4% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.  

Betting on road teams priced between the 3’s, have allowed 80 or more points in each of their last two games, and facing a foe that has played four consecutive games in which they and their foes scored fewer than 70 points.  

Alabama vs Texas A&M 
8-Unit best bet Under the posted total of 150 points 
Betting the Under in a game lined between the 3’s, the road team has allowed 80 or more points in their last two games, and is facing a host that has scored 70 or fewer and allowed 70 or fewer over their last three games has earned a 26-8 Under record for 76% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. This system is 4-0 over the past two seasons and only 2020 was a losing money one when it went 1-0 Over.  
For in-game betting place 50% preflop at the best price you are offered and then look to add another 50% at 162.5 points full fame and only during the first half of action. If they get out to a slow start, then don’t add anymore to the bet.  

For the in-game betting parlay look to get ‘Bama at +6.5 and the total Under at 157.5 points. This pair of prices may not occur during the first half of the action and if it doesn’tthen so be it and resist the temptation to force the bet. 
 

Nebraska versus Michigan State

8 unit best bet on Nebraska plus the four points.

Michigan State is 0-6 against the spread in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after the midway point of this season. Michigan State is also 15-31 against the spread in road games when playing against a team that has won 51 to 60% of their games after the 15th game of the season spanning the last 25 seasons.

from the predictive model Nebraska is expected to shoot between 48 and 52% in this game. Michigan State is just 4-18 against the spread when their opponents make 48 to 52% of their shots in games played over the last three seasons. Over the past 25 seasons, Nebraska is 110-44 against the spread when they shoot 48 to 52% from the field.

Wake Forest vs BC

8-Unit bet on Wake Forest minus 8 points

Wake Forest is one of the better teams in the Atlantic Coast Conference this season averaging 77.5 points per game which also ranks 32nd best nationally. They have outscored their opponents by 3.6 points per game as compared to Boston College getting outscored by 3.6 points per game. Boston College has a .992 assist to turnover ratio ranking 199th in the nation. Wake Forest has a tremendous advantage in ball handling even though they rank 117th in assist the turnover ratio at 1.101. 

Week four is ranked 25th in effective field goal percentage as compared to beat Boston colleges 226th ranking an opponent effective field goal percentage. Wake Forest has a tremendous advantage on the offensive end and I think they win this game comfortably by 10 or more points.

Wake Forest is 10-1 against the spread in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons. They are also 20-8-1 against the spread when facing teams that are attempting 18 or fewer free throws per game in all games played over the last two seasons. Boston College is a miserable 8-20 against the spread after covering the spread in two of their last three games in games played over the last three seasons.

Rutgers vs Penn State 

8-Unit best bet on Penn State minus the 3 points.  

The following betting algorithm has earned a 45-28-3 ASTS record for 62% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are: 

The game is lined between the 3’s 

The team we are betting on is coming off two road wins 

The opponent is coming off a home loss to a conference foe 

If our team is favored by 4.5 or fewer points including pick-em, they are 45-25-3 ATS for 65% wins and if a conference matchup, our team is 44-23-3 ATS for 67% wins. 

Penn State has the third most efficient offense in the nation. For instance, they rank 3rd with a 1.671 assist-to-turnover ratio and 5th best with a 56.3% effective field goal percentage. They will be facing one of the best defenses in the Big Tenand nationally.Rutgers ranks 7th nationally in scoring defense allowing 59.8 points per game and7th best allowing a 45.2% effective field goal percentage. Penn State's perimeter game that ranks 7th best nationally making 39.2% of their shots from beyond the arc and even higher in their home games they'll stretch the Rutgers defense out far too much from the paint area. This will open up cutters down the baseline for easy layups and dunks. 

Iowa vs Northwestern 

8-Unit Best bet on Iowa using the spread or money line. Bettor’s choice 

NW is 5-21 ATS in home games coming off a home win over a conference rival. NW has won four straight and covered the spread in each one and most recently defeated Indiana 64-62 as a 2.5-point home underdog. Somehow, they shot just 37% from the field and had 12 more shot attempts than Indiana in that win. That won’t be the case here against Iowa, who likes to get the pace up ranking 80-th nationally of the 363 D-1 teams, while NW ranks 261st in pace of play. Further, NW is 2-10 ATS in home games coming off a home win of three or fewer points. 

Tulsa vs Temple 

8-Unit bet on Tulsa University plus the 14 points 

Betting on road underdogs between 10 and 19.5 points that the total has played Under by 30 or more points over their past five games, and going up against a favorite that is coming off a humbly type of game losing to the spread by 18 or more points has earned a 30-10-1 ATS record good for 75% winning bets over the past five seasons. 

Ohio State vs Purdue 

8-Unit Bet on Ohio State plus the double-digits and you know, why not sprinkle the money line just a bit.  

Yes, it is a reach to expect OSU to pull off a shocking road win after the stretch of 12 games they have endured. Still, they are outscoring their opponents too, which is mind-blowing. They average 74 PPG and surrender 67.3 PPG for the season. They shoot 36% from beyond the arc, which is 3% better than Purdue and average the same number of made 3’s as Purdue at 7 per game. So, I can’t pass up, this opportunity to take on a pure bread program that is vastly underrated now by the markets.  

My predictive models have sounded off all the alarms and sometimes a bet that looks like an ugly dog with fleas oftentimes does turn out to be the real deal and can play with a sense of pride and ‘moxy’. 

Bet on road teams that are coming off two consecutive losses by 15 or more points and in a matchup of even offenses averaging 67 to 75 PPG on the season has earned a 65-36-2 ATS for 65% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. 

North Dakota State vs Oral Roberts (8 ET) 

8-Unit bet on North Dakota State plus the 14 points 

Betting on double-digit road underdogs that have allowed 33% shooting to their previous opponent and now facing a hot shooting team making at least 47% of their shots in each of their past three games has earned an incredible 37-16 ASTS record good for 70% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.  

Gonzaga vs Pepperdine (7 ET) 

8-Unit best bet on Pepperdine plus the 16 points 

Road teams that have scored 85 or more points in three consecutive games are favored by 15 or more points and facing a host that is playing on at least 3 days of rest are an imperfect 0-8 ATS since 2013. Gonzaga is 1-8 ATS following a game in which they covered the spread this season and 1-7 ATS following a game in which they led by 15 or more points at the half.  

Gonzaga vs Pepperdine (7 ET) 

8-Unit best bet on Pepperdine plus the 16 points 

Road teams that have scored 85 or more points in three consecutive games are favored by 15 or more points and facing a host that is playing on at least 3 days of rest are an imperfect 0-8 ATS since 2013. Gonzaga is 1-8 ATS following a game in which they covered the spread this season and 1-7 ATS following a game in which they led by 15 or more points at the half.