Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-17-23 | Florida Atlantic +2 v. Memphis | Top | 66-65 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
Florida Atlantic vs Memphis No matter what conference a team resides in, a season winning 30 or more games is always impressive and Florida Atlantic posted a 31-3 SU mark and 21-10-1 ATS mark with two games played having no posted betting lines. Over the past 10 NCAA Tournaments dogs that have won 30 or more games are 2-2 SU and 4-0 ATS so Memphis may be caught basking in their glory of upsetting No.1 ranked Houston in their previous game. From the predictive model, we are looking for FAU to score 75 or more points and have 13 or fewer turnovers. In past games in which they have met these performance measures has led them to an amazing 15-7 SU and 17-4-1 ATS mark for 81% winning bets since the 2015 season. |
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03-17-23 | Providence +4.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 53-61 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
Providence vs Kentucky From the predictive model, Providence is 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS when scoring 82 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers in games played over the past three seasons. |
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03-12-23 | Texas A&M v. Alabama -4.5 | Top | 63-82 | Win | 100 | 3 h 7 m | Show |
Texas A&M vs Alabama |
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03-12-23 | Princeton v. Yale -3 | Top | 74-65 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 25 m | Show |
Princeton vs Yale I suggest betting no more than a 2.5-unit amount on the parlay and would encourage you to wait till the game starts and look to get Yale at pick-em and the Under at 146.5 or more points during the first half of action. Perhaps 1.5 units parlay preflop and then 1 more unit in-game. Dogs that are playing in their conference tournament and that lost two same season games to the current foe, with a total between 135 and 145 points and with that foe averaging a higher shooting percentage over their last three games than what they shot for the season have gone just 18-27 ATS for 40%. |
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03-12-23 | Princeton v. Yale UNDER 140.5 | Top | 74-65 | Win | 100 | 2 h 25 m | Show |
Princeton vs Yale I suggest betting no more than a 2.5-unit amount on the parlay and would encourage you to wait till the game starts and look to get Yale at pick-em and the Under at 146.5 or more points during the first half of action. Perhaps 1.5 units parlay preflop and then 1 more unit in-game. Dogs that are playing in their conference tournament and that lost two same season games to the current foe, with a total between 135 and 145 points and with that foe averaging a higher shooting percentage over their last three games than what they shot for the season have gone just 18-27 ATS for 40%. |
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03-11-23 | Xavier +2.5 v. Marquette | Top | 51-65 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
Xavier vs Marquette 8-Unit best bet on Xavier plus the two points |
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03-11-23 | Texas +2.5 v. Kansas | Top | 76-56 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
Texas vs Kansas |
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03-11-23 | Fordham +6.5 v. Dayton | Top | 68-78 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
Fordham vs Dayton |
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03-11-23 | Cornell v. Yale UNDER 149.5 | Top | 60-80 | Win | 100 | 2 h 53 m | Show |
Cornell vs Yale |
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03-10-23 | Penn State +2 v. Northwestern | Top | 67-65 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
Penn State vs Northwestern The following situational algorithm has earned a 15-8 SU record and 20-3 ATS record for 87% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and requires a bet on neutral court teams, PSU, that defeated the current opponent as an underdog and with that foe coming off a double digit road win. If our team is the dog, the record goes to an incredible 15-1 ATS for 94% winning bets. |
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03-10-23 | UAB +1.5 v. North Texas | Top | 76-69 | Win | 100 | 2 h 11 m | Show |
North Texas vs UAB |
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03-10-23 | Ohio State v. Michigan State -4.5 | Top | 68-58 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 6 m | Show |
Ohio State vs Michigan State |
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03-09-23 | Villanova +5 v. Creighton | Top | 74-87 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
Villanova vs Creighton From the predictive model, Villanova is 7-1 SUATS as a dog, hitting 80% or more of their shots from the charity stripe, and having the better assist-to-turnover ratio in games played over the past 5 seasons. |
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03-09-23 | La Salle v. Fordham -6 | Top | 61-69 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
LaSalle vs Fordham From the predictive mode, we expect Fordham to score 75 or more points and have between 10 and 13 turnovers and when they have achieved this have gone to a 20-3 SU record and 18-4-1 ATS record for 82% winning bets. If they are facing a conference foe an even better 16-3 SU and 12-2-1 ATS record for 86% winning bets. |
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03-09-23 | DePaul v. Xavier -12 | Top | 84-89 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
DePaul vs Xavier |
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03-09-23 | Colorado State +10 v. San Diego State | Top | 61-64 | Win | 100 | 3 h 46 m | Show |
Colorado State vs San Diego State From the predictive model, CSU is 18-6 ATS for 75% winning bets when shooting 45% or better from the field, making 77% or better from the charity stripe and committing 12 or fewer turnovers. |
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03-09-23 | Ohio State v. Iowa UNDER 153.5 | Top | 73-69 | Win | 100 | 2 h 27 m | Show |
Ohio State vs Iowa |
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03-08-23 | LSU v. Georgia +3 | Top | 72-67 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
LSU vs Georgia
from the predictive model we are expecting Georgia to allow 71 or fewer points and have the better assist the turnover ratio. In past games in which Georgia has met or exceeded these performance measures has led them to earn an outstanding 32-2 SU and 29-4-1 ARS mark good for 88% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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03-08-23 | Boston College v. North Carolina -11 | Top | 61-85 | Win | 100 | 3 h 39 m | Show |
Boston College vs UNC 8-Unit bets bet on UNC minus 11.5 points North Carolina is 22-10 against the spread after two straight games forcing opponents to commit 11 or fewer turnovers in games played over the last two seasons. From the predictive model we are expecting North Carolina to allow no more than 70 points and get at least 43 rebounds. in past games in which North Carolina met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to earn a 51-4 SU record and 37-16 ATS record for 70% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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03-07-23 | North Dakota State v. Oral Roberts -10 | Top | 58-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
North Dakota State versus Oral Roberts Summit tournament championship game at the Denny Sanford premier center in Sioux Falls. North Dakota State is coming off an 89-79 win over South Dakota state priced AS4.5 underdogs. North Dakota State is just 2-9 against the spread after scoring 85 or more points in games played over the last two seasons. World Roberts is 9-1 against the spread when playing only the third game in a week in games played over the last two seasons. North Dakota head coach Richman is 5-14 against the number when facing a team that is scoring 84 or more points per game for his career. From the predictive model we are looking for Oral Roberts university to score at least 80 points in this game and have no more than 10 turnovers. North Dakota State is 0-16 straight up and 1-15 against the spread when allowing 80 or more points and forcing 10 or fewer turnovers in games played over the last three seasons. |
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03-07-23 | St. Peter's +3 v. Fairfield | Top | 70-52 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
St. Peters vs Fairfield |
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03-07-23 | NC-Wilmington v. College of Charleston -10 | Top | 58-63 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
UNC-Wilmington vs College of Charleston The College of Charleston is 8-1 against the spread when playing on one or no days of rest this season. They are also 8-1 against the spread when playing only their third game of the past seven days this season. They are also 9-2 against the spread in road games after covering four or five of their last six against the spread in games played over the last two seasons.Head coach of College of Charleston Kelsey is 16-5 against the spread when playing on one or fewer days of rest over his coaching career. He is also 27-12 in road games after one or more consecutive games that played over the total for his career. Last, he is 35-19 against the spread in road games when playing against a team with a winning record for his career. From the predictive model we are expecting the College of Charleston to score 77 or more points and make 10 or more 3-point shots in this game. In past games in which they met or exceeded this pair of performance measures has seen them go 18-5 straight up and against the spread for 78% winning bets. |
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03-06-23 | NC-Wilmington +7.5 v. Hofstra | Top | 79-73 | Win | 100 | 4 h 30 m | Show |
UNC-Wilmington vs Hofstra The predictive metrics are looking for Hofstra to score 70 or fewer points and for UNCW to have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games, in which UNCW met these performance measures has earned a 17-1 SU record and a 14-4 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets over the past three seasons. |
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03-05-23 | San Francisco v. Santa Clara -3 | Top | 93-87 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
San Francisco vs Santa Clara West Coast Tournament - Quarterfinals - Orleans Arena - Paradise, NV |
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03-04-23 | Alabama +1.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 61-67 | Loss | -104 | 2 h 13 m | Show |
Alabama vs Texas A&M The two best teams in the SEC Conference square off in this showdown, but there is nothing at stake. Alabama is the #1 seed with a 16-4 conference record and A&M is locked in the #2 seed heading into the SEC Tournament this week. Alabama has used only 3 different starting lineups this season and the quintet of Bediako, Bradley, Clowney, Miller, and Spears have amassed a 17-3 record. They will start today against A&M. Top-10 road teams in a matchup facing a foe that is ranked between 11 and 25, both teams have won 20 or more games, but the team ranked in the Top-10 has lost fewer games than the foe and are priced between the 3’s are 29-14-3 ATS for 67.4% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Betting on road teams priced between the 3’s, have allowed 80 or more points in each of their last two games, and facing a foe that has played four consecutive games in which they and their foes scored fewer than 70 points. Alabama vs Texas A&M For the in-game betting parlay look to get ‘Bama at +6.5 and the total Under at 157.5 points. This pair of prices may not occur during the first half of the action and if it doesn’tthen so be it and resist the temptation to force the bet. |
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03-04-23 | Alabama v. Texas A&M UNDER 151.5 | Top | 61-67 | Win | 100 | 2 h 13 m | Show |
Alabama vs Texas A&M The two best teams in the SEC Conference square off in this showdown, but there is nothing at stake. Alabama is the #1 seed with a 16-4 conference record and A&M is locked in the #2 seed heading into the SEC Tournament this week. Alabama has used only 3 different starting lineups this season and the quintet of Bediako, Bradley, Clowney, Miller, and Spears have amassed a 17-3 record. They will start today against A&M. Top-10 road teams in a matchup facing a foe that is ranked between 11 and 25, both teams have won 20 or more games, but the team ranked in the Top-10 has lost fewer games than the foe and are priced between the 3’s are 29-14-3 ATS for 67.4% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Betting on road teams priced between the 3’s, have allowed 80 or more points in each of their last two games, and facing a foe that has played four consecutive games in which they and their foes scored fewer than 70 points. Alabama vs Texas A&M For the in-game betting parlay look to get ‘Bama at +6.5 and the total Under at 157.5 points. This pair of prices may not occur during the first half of the action and if it doesn’tthen so be it and resist the temptation to force the bet. |
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02-28-23 | Michigan State v. Nebraska +4.5 | Top | 80-67 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
Nebraska versus Michigan State 8 unit best bet on Nebraska plus the four points. Michigan State is 0-6 against the spread in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after the midway point of this season. Michigan State is also 15-31 against the spread in road games when playing against a team that has won 51 to 60% of their games after the 15th game of the season spanning the last 25 seasons. from the predictive model Nebraska is expected to shoot between 48 and 52% in this game. Michigan State is just 4-18 against the spread when their opponents make 48 to 52% of their shots in games played over the last three seasons. Over the past 25 seasons, Nebraska is 110-44 against the spread when they shoot 48 to 52% from the field.
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02-28-23 | Boston College v. Wake Forest -8 | Top | 71-69 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 30 m | Show |
Wake Forest vs BC 8-Unit bet on Wake Forest minus 8 points Wake Forest is one of the better teams in the Atlantic Coast Conference this season averaging 77.5 points per game which also ranks 32nd best nationally. They have outscored their opponents by 3.6 points per game as compared to Boston College getting outscored by 3.6 points per game. Boston College has a .992 assist to turnover ratio ranking 199th in the nation. Wake Forest has a tremendous advantage in ball handling even though they rank 117th in assist the turnover ratio at 1.101. Week four is ranked 25th in effective field goal percentage as compared to beat Boston colleges 226th ranking an opponent effective field goal percentage. Wake Forest has a tremendous advantage on the offensive end and I think they win this game comfortably by 10 or more points. Wake Forest is 10-1 against the spread in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons. They are also 20-8-1 against the spread when facing teams that are attempting 18 or fewer free throws per game in all games played over the last two seasons. Boston College is a miserable 8-20 against the spread after covering the spread in two of their last three games in games played over the last three seasons. |
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02-26-23 | Rutgers v. Penn State -2.5 | Top | 59-56 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
Rutgers vs Penn State 8-Unit best bet on Penn State minus the 3 points. The following betting algorithm has earned a 45-28-3 ASTS record for 62% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are: The game is lined between the 3’s The team we are betting on is coming off two road wins The opponent is coming off a home loss to a conference foe If our team is favored by 4.5 or fewer points including pick-em, they are 45-25-3 ATS for 65% wins and if a conference matchup, our team is 44-23-3 ATS for 67% wins. Penn State has the third most efficient offense in the nation. For instance, they rank 3rd with a 1.671 assist-to-turnover ratio and 5th best with a 56.3% effective field goal percentage. They will be facing one of the best defenses in the Big Tenand nationally.Rutgers ranks 7th nationally in scoring defense allowing 59.8 points per game and7th best allowing a 45.2% effective field goal percentage. Penn State's perimeter game that ranks 7th best nationally making 39.2% of their shots from beyond the arc and even higher in their home games they'll stretch the Rutgers defense out far too much from the paint area. This will open up cutters down the baseline for easy layups and dunks. |
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02-19-23 | Iowa -1.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 60-80 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
Iowa vs Northwestern 8-Unit Best bet on Iowa using the spread or money line. Bettor’s choice NW is 5-21 ATS in home games coming off a home win over a conference rival. NW has won four straight and covered the spread in each one and most recently defeated Indiana 64-62 as a 2.5-point home underdog. Somehow, they shot just 37% from the field and had 12 more shot attempts than Indiana in that win. That won’t be the case here against Iowa, who likes to get the pace up ranking 80-th nationally of the 363 D-1 teams, while NW ranks 261st in pace of play. Further, NW is 2-10 ATS in home games coming off a home win of three or fewer points. |
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02-19-23 | Tulsa +14 v. Temple | Top | 53-76 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 8 m | Show |
Tulsa vs Temple 8-Unit bet on Tulsa University plus the 14 points Betting on road underdogs between 10 and 19.5 points that the total has played Under by 30 or more points over their past five games, and going up against a favorite that is coming off a humbly type of game losing to the spread by 18 or more points has earned a 30-10-1 ATS record good for 75% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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02-19-23 | Ohio State +12.5 v. Purdue | Top | 55-82 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 8 m | Show |
Ohio State vs Purdue 8-Unit Bet on Ohio State plus the double-digits and you know, why not sprinkle the money line just a bit. Yes, it is a reach to expect OSU to pull off a shocking road win after the stretch of 12 games they have endured. Still, they are outscoring their opponents too, which is mind-blowing. They average 74 PPG and surrender 67.3 PPG for the season. They shoot 36% from beyond the arc, which is 3% better than Purdue and average the same number of made 3’s as Purdue at 7 per game. So, I can’t pass up, this opportunity to take on a pure bread program that is vastly underrated now by the markets. My predictive models have sounded off all the alarms and sometimes a bet that looks like an ugly dog with fleas oftentimes does turn out to be the real deal and can play with a sense of pride and ‘moxy’. Bet on road teams that are coming off two consecutive losses by 15 or more points and in a matchup of even offenses averaging 67 to 75 PPG on the season has earned a 65-36-2 ATS for 65% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. |
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02-18-23 | North Dakota State +14 v. Oral Roberts | Top | 66-74 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
North Dakota State vs Oral Roberts (8 ET) 8-Unit bet on North Dakota State plus the 14 points Betting on double-digit road underdogs that have allowed 33% shooting to their previous opponent and now facing a hot shooting team making at least 47% of their shots in each of their past three games has earned an incredible 37-16 ASTS record good for 70% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. |
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02-18-23 | Gonzaga v. Pepperdine +16.5 | Top | 97-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
Gonzaga vs Pepperdine (7 ET) 8-Unit best bet on Pepperdine plus the 16 points Road teams that have scored 85 or more points in three consecutive games are favored by 15 or more points and facing a host that is playing on at least 3 days of rest are an imperfect 0-8 ATS since 2013. Gonzaga is 1-8 ATS following a game in which they covered the spread this season and 1-7 ATS following a game in which they led by 15 or more points at the half. |
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02-18-23 | Hofstra v. Stony Brook +12.5 | Top | 68-65 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
Gonzaga vs Pepperdine (7 ET) 8-Unit best bet on Pepperdine plus the 16 points Road teams that have scored 85 or more points in three consecutive games are favored by 15 or more points and facing a host that is playing on at least 3 days of rest are an imperfect 0-8 ATS since 2013. Gonzaga is 1-8 ATS following a game in which they covered the spread this season and 1-7 ATS following a game in which they led by 15 or more points at the half. |
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02-18-23 | Stetson v. Florida Gulf Coast UNDER 144.5 | Top | 88-84 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
Florida Gulf Coast vs Stetson (6 ET) 8-Unit bet Under the total currently priced at 143.5 points The same Total system supporting the Under bet in the North Florida and Austin Peay game applies to this one as well. FGCU has lost to the spread by 53.5 points over their last 10 games while Stetson has played over the total by 57 points over their previous 5 games. FGCU head coach Patrick Chambers is 21-12 Under following a game in which his team made 78% or more of their free throw attempts. He coached 7 seasons at Boston University for two seasons 2010-11, then went to Penn State from 2012-2020 and is now in his second season with FGCU. |
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02-18-23 | Pittsburgh v. Virginia Tech -5 | Top | 72-79 | Win | 100 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
Pittsburgh vs Virginia Tech 5 EST 8-Unit Bet on Virginia Tech minus the 5 points Did you know that teams that have won 70% or more of their games against the spread in games played in February and March are 2-12 SUATS for 14% over the past 10 seasons? Pittsburgh is the only team currently over 70% ATS wins this season and are at 73% ATS right now. Pittsburgh head coach Capel III is just 13-28 ATS in the second half of the season when taking on a team that averages 21 or more 3-point shot attempts for his career; 5-12 ATS when facing an excellent ball handling team averaging 12 or fewer turnovers per game. |
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02-09-23 | UC-Santa Barbara +1 v. Long Beach State | Top | 75-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
UC-Santa Barbara vs Long beach State 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on Santa Barbara using the money line or –1 point, whichever you prefer. UCSB is 7-1 ATS when facing a good defensive team allowing a shooting percentage of 42% or lower this season; 17-6-1 ATS in road games coming off three consecutive conference games spanning the past three seasons. LBST is just 20-27-1 ATS in home games following a game in which they allowed 85 or more points over the past 10 seasons. UCSB head coach Pasternack is 16-4 ATS when facing an offense scoring 77 or more PPG for his coaching career. |
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02-09-23 | New Orleans v. Nicholls State UNDER 150.5 | Top | 59-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
New Orleans vs Nicholls State Betting on the UNDER in games with a total between 143 and 153, the home team has been defeated by 48 or more points against the spread over their past 10 games and facing a foe that have seen their last 5 games play OVER by 28 or more points has produced an 83-46 record for 64.3% winners since 2012 and 39-21 UNDER for 65% winning bets. If our home team is a favorite of at least 6 points, the Under then has earned a highly profitable 24-10 record for 71% winning bets. |
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02-09-23 | Denver v. North Dakota UNDER 145 | Top | 63-86 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
Denver vs North Dakota 4% 8-Unit bets bet Under the total, currently at 144 points Betting the Under with a dog that has seen their last five games play Under the total by at least 36 points and facing a foe that has seen their total play Over by at least 8 points I each of their last four games has earned an outstanding 25-9 for 74% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game is lined between a 3.5-point favorite and a 3.5 dog, the record soars to 15-4 Under for 79% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. |
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02-06-23 | Lafayette v. Holy Cross OVER 125.5 | Top | 72-58 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
Lafayette vs Holy Cross |
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02-05-23 | Fordham +4.5 v. Richmond | Top | 58-68 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 55 m | Show |
Fordham vs Richmond |
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12-07-22 | Eastern Kentucky +28.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 49-84 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 2 m | Show |
Eastern Kentucky vs Tennessee 4% 8-Unit bets bet on Eastern Kentucky plus the points Eastern Kentucky is 22 - 9 against the spread when facing teams averaging 40 or more rebounds per game. Eastern Kentucky is 35 - 16 ATS in road games when facing solid defensive teams allowing 64 or fewer points per game. |
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11-13-22 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff v. Mississippi State -24.5 | Top | 47-80 | Win | 100 | 3 h 57 m | Show |
Arkansas Pine Bluff vs Mississippi State 4% 8-Unit best bet on the MST minus the points ARK is just 11-27 ATS when on the road and coming off three non-conference games in a row and 9-22 ATS after covering the spread in 2 ro more consecutive games. State is 45-22-3 ATS in home games with a posted total between 135 and 139.5 points. |
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04-04-22 | North Carolina +4.5 v. Kansas | Top | 69-72 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
UNC vs Kansas 4% Best Bet on North Carolina plus the points and a 1% bet on the money line. I like North Carolia to be leading at the half and to win the game at +700 at betMGM What Villanova lacked in length to defend Kansas’ McCormack, UNC has more than enough length, and I see them minimizing McCormack throughout the entire game. Then Agbaji, the stud Kansas leader is going to have to be far more involved and creative and I see the UNC starters and depth off the bench getting that minimized as well. Simply said, I see UNC as the better team and the fact that they are the underdog again, will allow them to play lose and free and at full strength. I know that the last four and 11 of the last 16 Champions have been 1-seeds, but this UNC team is vastly different than any other non-1-seed team, especially seeds greater than 4, in Tournament history. Supporting the upset, UNC is 7-1 against the money line (making +6.7 Units per Unit wagered) when they make 31% to 37% of their three-point shot attempts in a game this season, 11-2 against the money line (+10.8 Units) when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds in a game over the last two seasons, and 8-2 against the money line (+11.5 Units) in games where both teams score 75 or more points this season. Thank you to every one of you that supported me and long hours of research to provide you the absolute best sports betting research possible. Every season I feel a tremendous need to give thanks to and be 100% grateful for every one of you. Next Sports up is MLB, so make certain you get the 75% discounted season-long package on my profile page this week. |
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03-28-22 | Southern Utah v. Fresno State OVER 137 | Top | 48-67 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Southern Utah vs Fresno State The Basketball Classic Semifinals 4% bet OVER the posted total FSU head coach Hutson is 9-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four of their last five games, 35-20-1 ATS following a home game, and 16-6-1 ATS following two consecutive home games. From my predictive models, we learn that FSU is 8-0-1 Over when scoring 70 or more points and making at least 12 free throws in games played over the last three seasons. |
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03-28-22 | Southern Utah v. Fresno State -7 | Top | 48-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Southern Utah vs Fresno State The Basketball Classic Semifinals 4% bet OVER the posted total FSU head coach Hutson is 9-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four of their last five games, 35-20-1 ATS following a home game, and 16-6-1 ATS following two consecutive home games. From my predictive models, we learn that FSU is 8-0-1 Over when scoring 70 or more points and making at least 12 free throws in games played over the last three seasons. |
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03-27-22 | St. Peter's v. North Carolina -8.5 | Top | 49-69 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
St. Peters vs North Carolina 4% best bet on North Carolina minus the points The St. Peters Peacocks have become the first 15-seed to ever make the Elite-8 Round and will most assuredly be the topic of a documentary movie down the road – and a well-deserved one. However, my models, which do not have any pulse rate or the heart that the Peacocks team has put on display and is arguably the best example of why we love March Madness, indicate that their run is going to end here against no-less than an 8-seed North Carolia Tarheels team. The media, including Lunardi, mocked the ACC Conference and what they missed in a big way was the fact that the top teams in that loop were not having off years, because NC State, Georgia Tech, and other were having of years. If there is one huge take-away from this post season is to be careful when assigning a ‘off season’ discount to any of the Major-6 Conferences. I even heard. Rumor that Loyola-Chicago's biggest fan Sister jean had entered the transfer portal to join St. Peters. (Ha Ha) Betting on favorites after beating the spread by 45 or more points in total spanning their last seven games and now facing an opponent that has beat the number by a total of 55 or more points over their last 10 games has earned a highly profitable 49-16-2 ATS for 75% winning bets over the last 25 seasons and is 14-1 ATS for 93.3% winning bets over the last three seasons. UNC is 10-2 ATS in the second half of each of the last three seasons when taking on winning record foe and 9-1 ATS when taking on a foe that is outscoring their opponents by at least 4 or more points per game in games played over the last two season. What UNC has that Purdue did not is the perimeter threat from many players on the floor. Purdue failed to penetrate the crowded paint are and then move the move the ball swiftly to the perimeter for wide-open shots. When they did, the shots were not made. I think UNC will exploit this from start to finish and force St. Peters to stop packing the paint area and spread them out across the court to defend perimeter shooters. UNC will force St. Peters to expend ton of energy trying to cover the side-to-side ball movement. Eventually, when they wear down and are reduced to a defender running at an open shooter, that shooter will fake the shot and drive to the rim. Nothing at all at the greatest and accomplishments of St. Peters, but this is North Carolina. |
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03-24-22 | Texas Tech -1 v. Duke | Top | 73-78 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
Texas Tech vs Duke 4% Best bet on Texas Tech minus the single point, if this line moves to –1.5 to –2.5, then bet this game using the money line. When I write just a few of incredible accomplishments that Coach K has achieved, it becomes even more incredible just seeing it in black and white – if that makes any sense. The Duke basketball program is in the Sweet 16 for the 28th time and Coach-K is looking for his 100th NCAA Tournament victory. He has won a record 1,200 overall games in 47 seasons (42 at Duke) as he heads down the home stretch of his career. How coincidental are these achievements that are at exactly century and multi-century marks. He is also two victories away from reaching his 13th Final Four. I do remember that the number 13 has some scary connotations. This is a matchup that I see focused on ball handling where Duke is ranked 2nd in the nation sporting a 1.644 assist to turnover ratio against a Texas Tech defense that ranks 9th with a 0.690 defensive assist to turnover ratio. Then on the other side of the court, we have a Texas Tech offense that ranks 166th with a 1.006 assist to turnover ratio going up against a conservative Duke defense ranking 315th with a poor 1.249 defensive assist to turnover ratio. Plus, Tech ranks 6th in scoring defense allowing 60.2 points per game. Duke will look to increase the pace of play while Tech will look to get this game in the mud and to be as physical as the referees will permit. So, teams in the Sweet-16, Elite-8, and Final-4, are the favorite, and have a defense allowing 60 to 65 points per game on the season have gone on to a 45-26-2 ATS record good for 63.4% winning bets over the last 15 NCAA Tournaments. Using this simple betting system, you would have made profits in each of the past 7 events, and this is the first one of this event. |
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03-24-22 | Michigan v. Villanova UNDER 135.5 | Top | 55-63 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
Michigan vs Villanova 7:29 PM EST, March 23, 2022 4% best bet Under the posted total The last time these two programs met in San Antonio on the basketball court was in the 2016 NCAA Championship game won by Villanova. The Wildcats look to be poised for another Championship run here in San Antonio and credit goes to head coach Jay Wright for having the courage to load up the front end of the season with top-rated superior teams. That ‘seasoning’ is now going to pay off for the remainder of their Tournament run starting tonight. When away from Ann Arbor, Michigan is 7-0 Under after two consecutive games attempting 10 or fewer shots than the opponent and 31-15 Under following two consecutive games where the opponent was called for five or more fouls than they were called for. Villanova is on a 7-1 Under run when playing in a neutral court settling and installed as the favorite. For his entire career at Villanova, Jay Wright is 45-27-2 Under when facing a marginal winning team sporting a win percentage not higher than 60%, 32-20-3 Under when playing against a winning record team with a win percentage not higher in than 60% in the second half of each season (after game number 15) From my predictive models, we are expecting to see a well-played matchup within a slower than average pace of play. The spread and total are telling us that Villanova will win 70.25-64.75 or 70-65. They are also projected to make no higher than 37% from beyond the arc OR not make more than 11 3-pointers in total and not score more than 75 points. In past games when not playing at home, the Wildcats have gone 5-14-2 Over-Under for 74% wining bets when not scoring more than 75 points and not making more than 11 3-pointers in games played since 2019. Michigan is 5-10 Over-Under for 67% winning Under bets in games where they did not make more than 6 3-pointers and did not score more than 70 points. |
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03-24-22 | Arkansas +9.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Arkansas vs Gonzaga 7:09 PM EST, Thursday, March 24, 2022 Playing the LIVE in-game betting lines and taking advantage of the scoring volatility that this game is likely to have through the 40 minutes of play gives rise to the following strategy that I have used hundreds of times. Consider betting Arkansas pre-flop (before the tip) getting the +9.5 points for a 50% amount of your 4% betting amount (Or a 2% betting amount), the look to add 25% more (1% best bet) at Arkansas +11.5 and +14.5 points during the first half only. This is one of the best NCAA Basketball money line betting systems and has earned a 32-21 straight-up record for 60% winning bets over the last five seasons and has made the $1,000 bettor a profit of $40,500 by averaging a whopping +190.3 money line wager. Bet on a solid defensive team allowing 40 to 42.5% shooting on the season and is now facing a team that has posted four consecutive games making at least 50% of their shots and is also making 47.5% of their shots on the season. So, I like to call this money line betting system the “Mother of all Regression Betting Systems”. Arkansas is 13-2 straight-up when facing a team that is making at least 45% of their shots on the season in each of the last two seasons and has made the $1,000 bettor a profit of $13,700 in this role. Arkansas is 8-2-1 ATS when facing teams that attempt an average of at least 21 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons. Gonzaga is 1-9 ATS following back-to-back games forcing just eight or fewer turnovers in each of the two games. Arkansas is 12-3-1 ATS after winning two of their last three games and a perfect 7-0 ATS after allowing 50 or fewer points spanning the last three seasons. |
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03-18-22 | Delaware v. Villanova UNDER 133.5 | Top | 60-80 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
Delaware vs Villanova 2:45 PM EST, March 18, 2022 The total for this game is 133.5 points and has not moved from that opening price. One live in-game strategy worth considering and one that I will look to execute is to bet 50% of your 4% betting amount pre-flop and then hope to see a faster than expected pace at the start of the game. If that happens look to add the remaining 50% at 139.5 points during the first half only. To bet in-game in the second half has a significantly reduced ROI simply because there is less time to be correct. The worst case is that 139.5 is not made available during the first half of play which implies that we are correct on the 4% Under bet looking good to cover. You can also bet 80% pre flop and look to add 20% at 139.5 points. Send me a Direct Message on Twitter @JohnRyanSports1 if you have any questions. Betting the Under in the first round of the NCAA Tournament in a matchup of teams that have won 60 to 80% of their games on the season has earned a 67-29-1 Under record good for 70% winning bets over the last five seasons. Delaware is 8-2 Under when playing against a team with a win percentage between 60 and 80% this season. Nova is 6-0 Under as a favorite on a neutral court this season and 13-4 Under coming off a win of six or fewer points in games played over the last three seasons. |
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03-18-22 | Montana State +15 v. Texas Tech | Top | 62-97 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
Montana State vs Texas Tech 1:45 PM EST, March 18, 2022 4% bet on the Montana State Bobcats plus the points. The line opened making the Bobcats a 15-point underdog and has remained at this level amid balanced betting action. My predictive models point to the fact that the betting community is paying too much (almost like a tax) for the privilege of betting the Texas Tech Red Raiders. The Bobcats won the Big Sky Tournament earning their ticket as a 14 seed. Texas Tech reached the Big 12 tournament final, where it fell to Kansas 74-65. Last season, the Bobcats lost in the conference final, and it has turned out to be a blessing. Third-year head coach Danny Sprinkle had three seniors form that squad exercise their COVID option for a fifth season. As expected, the trio are the leaders of the Bobcats. Xavier Bishop tops Montana State in scoring (13.9 points per game) and assists (4.3). Jubrile Belo is averaging 13.0 points per game and tops the team in rebounds averaging 6.8 per game, and blocks averaging 1.8 per game. Abdul Mohamed contributes 7.8 points per game and 6.6 boards per game. The Bobcats are 11-2 ATS when facing solid rebounding teams averaging four or more rebounds per game than their opponents in games played over the last three seasons. Texas Tech is 0-6 ATS in road games when facing teams averaging 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season. The Bobcats are 10-2 ATS in road or neutral settings after playing a game as a favorite, 9-2 ATS in road or neutral settings coming off two or more consecutive wins, and 10-2 ATS in all tournaments games over the last three seasons. |
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03-18-22 | Loyola-Chicago v. Ohio State +1 | Top | 41-54 | Win | 100 | 3 h 27 m | Show |
Loyola vs Ohio State 12:15 PM EST, March 18, 2022 4% best bet on the Ohio State Buckeyes The seventh-seeded Buckeyes (19-11) and 10th-seeded Ramblers (25-7) will meet in Pittsburgh at the PPG Paints Arena on Friday in a first-round game set to tip-off at 12:15 PM EST. Loyola is on a roll winner of three straight to win their second consecutive Missouri Valley Conference Title and are making their third appearance of the past five seasons in the NCAA Tournament. Ohio State is not on a roll and were upset by a surging Penn State squad in the opening round of the Big Ten Tournament. Last year while on the LIVE Manny’s Irish Pub Show, Rob Veno kept me informed of the last 1:50 of last year’s Ohio State vs Orla Roberts game. I got Oral Roberts at +950 on the money line trailing by just two points with 1:50 left and knowing that they were the best free throw shooting team in the nation. I sometimes cannot watch a game feeling I may jinx and hope of winning such a bet, so Rob Veno of WagerTalk kept me apprised during our show and man alive that was some great fun I will never forget. Ohio State was a 2-seed and there was immense pressure on them to win. However, this season they are not under the media spotlight and come into this game as one of the more underrated teams in the event. An early loss in the Big Ten tourney might be a blessing for the the Buckeyes, who had to make up two games late in the season and played seven games in 16 days to end the regular season March 6. Then followed by the loss to Penn State four days later. Everyone loves Loyola and their great story and I do as well, but I cannot bet that way as a pro bettor. The value here is certainly with Ohio State and I believe they come away with the win. OSU is 9-1 ATS in road games when facing solid shooting teams that are making 45% or more of their shots in the second half, after game number 15, of each of the past two seasons. They are 8-0 ATS in the second half of each of the past two seasons when facing a foe that is outscoring their opponents by 8 or more points per game. Loyola is just 10-23 ATS in the second half of each of the past three seasons when facing a team that is averaging 21 or more 4-points hot attempts. |
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03-16-22 | Notre Dame v. Rutgers UNDER 132 | Top | 89-87 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
Notre Dame vs Rutgers 9:10 PM EST, March 16, 2022 4% Best Bet Under the posted total Notre Dame and Rutgers will be the participants in the last “Play-In” game prior to the March Madness Insanity begins in earnest Thursday. I thought Rutgers had earned a spot in the bracket by virtue of how well they did play down the stretch. This reflects that the committee only looks at quality of wins and the full-season body of work to give a team a thumbs up or thumbs down vote. I’d like to see more weighting for those teams that played hot down the stretch that would then bump out the teams that finished the regular season in a stumbling manner. The former Big East Conference rivals ended up earning two of the last four at-large bids into the 2022 field and will play each other in a First Four game Wednesday night at Dayton, Ohio. The winner will earn a No. 11 seed and move on to play sixth-seeded Alabama on Friday. This Under bet is backed by a simple to use betting system that has earned a 200-276 Over-Under record good for 58% winning Under bets spanning the last 15 seasons and is on a 19-42 Over-Under record for 69% winning Under bets spanning the last two seasons. The requirements are to bet the Under in games played in March with a team that allowed 85 or more points in their previous game. Plus, a subset that filters out only the games played with a total between 130 and 135 points that has earned a 17-33 Over-Under record good for 67% winning Under bets over the last 15 seasons. |
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03-13-22 | Iowa v. Purdue UNDER 152 | Top | 75-66 | Win | 100 | 3 h 55 m | Show |
Iowa vs Purdue 3:30 PM EST, March 13, 2022 4% bet on the UNDER in this Big Ten Championship matchup. Iowa’s offense was quite good at the beginning of the season, but now is monumentally better right now than the first time these two teams met. They play fast ranking 5th nationally averaging 64.6 shots per game and the nation’s best ball handling team sporting 1.74 assists to turnover ratio. However, now the betting total has been overpriced by the betting community and both teams are prone to scoring below their average score per game. Betting the Under in a game being played on a neutral court, with a total between 150 and 159.5 points, after the 15th game of the regular season including Tournament action, and two teams that are allowing 42.5% to 45% shooting on the season has earned an insanely profitable 32-4 Under record good for 89% winning bets over the last five seasons. For March Madness moving forward, totals in the month of March ranging between 150 and 159.5 points, in games being played on a neutral site have gone 176-128-6 Under for 58% winners since 2006. In April games, the Under is 5-1. |
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03-08-22 | Canisius +3.5 v. Fairfield | Top | 50-72 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
Canisius vs Fairfield 4% best bet on Canisuis This matchup involves a first-round game in the Metro Atlantic Tournament being held at the Boardwalk in Atlantic City, NJ. Canisius is 6-0 ATS when facing teams who are attempting an average of 21 or more three-point shots per game on the season and after the 15th game of the regular season. Fairfield is 3-13 ATS After a combined score of 115 or fewer points were scored. In games played over the last three seasons. They are also 3-15 ATS after A game in which they made 20% or worse, of their three point shot attempts in games played over the last three seasons. Take Canisius as a 4% Best Bet |
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03-08-22 | Rider -1 v. Manhattan | Top | 79-67 | Win | 100 | 3 h 14 m | Show |
Rider vs Manhattan 4% best bet on the Rider Broncos at pick-em or better This is a first-round matchup in the Metro Atlantic Tournament being contested on the Boardwalk in Atlantic City. Rider is 7-1 ATS after three straight games in which they forced the opponents to commit 14 or fewer turnovers in games played this season. Manhattan is 6-18 ATS after three consecutive conference games have been played in each of the last three seasons. Rider is 17-6-1 ATS After playing two consecutive games. Installed as an underdog in games played over the last three seasons. |
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03-08-22 | NC State +5 v. Clemson | Top | 64-70 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 42 m | Show |
NC State vs Clemson Here is a highly profitable betting system that has earned a 62-25-2 ATS record good for 71% winning bets over the last 25 seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a straight up loss to the current opponent and werepriced as a favorite and with that opponent coming off two consecutive wins by five or fewer points to conference rivals. Clemson is 3-14 ATS in road games in road games after three consecutive games where the opponent grabbed 31 or fewer rebounds. |
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02-27-22 | Nebraska v. Penn State UNDER 137.5 | Top | 93-70 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
Nebraska vs Penn State 7 ET 4% Best Bet on the Under the posted total PSU is 31-14 Under when playing a game in the second half of the season (after game number 15) and taking on a team with a losing record and 23-9 Under when playing a struggling team with a win percentage between 20 and 40% on the season. They are 16-3 Under as a double-digit home favorite and 12-3 Under in the month of February, 11-3 Under after allowing 30 or fewer points in the first half of each of the last two games, and 7-1 Under following four consecutive games committing 14 or fewer turnovers and 6-0 Under following five games. |
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02-21-22 | West Virginia v. TCU UNDER 134 | Top | 67-77 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 37 m | Show |
West Virginia vs TCU TCU is 82-48 Under for 63% winners coming off a double-digit loss to a conference foe and if suffering this double-digit loss on the road they are 52-30 Under for 64% winners. Even just coming off a double-digit loss regardless if a conference foe or not or site location, they have produced a 91-60 Under record for 60% winning bets. Over the last three season, TCU is 16-6 Under for 73% winners after losing by double-digits to a conference for in their previous game. The month of February is when the contenders seperate themselves form the pretenders and head coaches look to start coaching more aggressively and with more inspiration for his players. West Virginia’s skipper Huggins is this type of coach and his teams have a tendency every season to play their best in the month of February – and that starts on the defensive end. Huggins is 31-19 Under in games played in February and 77-53 Under when facing a team on the road that is forcing 14 or fewer turnovers on the seasons. |
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02-12-22 | Arkansas v. Alabama -4.5 | Top | 67-68 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
Arkansas vs Alabama 4% Best Bet on Alabama minus the points This is a matchup in which the market has overvalued Arkansas and undervalued Alabama. Arkansas has won 9 straight games and are 8-2 ATS over the last 10 games. The Tide is 156-9 on the season and have covered 9 of those games while losing 14 and are just 2-8 ATS over their last 10. Arkansas is coming off a program hallmark in defeating then No.1 Auburn 80-76 on their home floor as 1.5-point underdogs. So, an overall performance regression is likely for Arkansas. Tide was ranked 14th in the preseason polls and as high as No. 6 in the poll released the week of December 13. They have not been ranked in the past 4 weeks and are a team that has all the strengths and talent to regain a ranking in the polls in the weeks ahead. Arkansas is 5-16 ATS off an upset win installed as a home underdog. |
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02-12-22 | St. Joe's +3 v. Massachusetts | Top | 67-69 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
St. Joes vs UMASS Noon EST SJU is 7-0 ATS in the second half of each of the last two seasons when facing an opponent that is forcing an average of 14 or fewer turnovers per game. They are 11-3 ATS when facing teams that are committing an average of 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season. SJU head coach Lange is 9-1 ATS following a game in which his Hawks had two or fewer steals. |
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02-12-22 | Texas +6.5 v. Baylor | Top | 63-80 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
Texas vs Baylor Noon 4% best bet on Texas plus the points Texas is 8-1 ATS in road games following a game in which they made at least 78% of their free throws in games played over the last three seasons. They are also 13-3-1 ATS in road games off a win against a conference rival in games played over the last three seasons. Baylor head coach Drew is just 26-42 ATS after winning 15 or more of his Bears last 20 games. Texas skipper Beard is 13-3 ATS in road games in the second half of the season (After Game number 15) facing opponents averaging 16 or more assist per game. |
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02-07-22 | Northern Arizona v. Northern Colorado -10 | Top | 60-82 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
Northern Arizona vs Northern Colorado NCU is 14-3 ATS when taking on an opponent that is averaging 14 or fewer forced turnovers per game in games played in the second half of each of the last three seasons; 27-14 ATS for full seasons. NAU is just 1-7 ATS this season in games lined between 140 and 149.5 points and 80-112 ATS over the last 25 seasons when playing their second game in three days. NAU head coach Burcar is a money-burning 9-18 ATS with the total between 140 and 149.5 points and just 12-22 ATS playing with revenge. This past Saturday NCU took to the road and defeated NAU 74-71, but failed to cover the number as 5.5 point-favorites. |
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02-07-22 | Arizona -13 v. Arizona State | Top | 91-79 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
Arizona vs Arizona State 4% best bet on Arizona minus the points. I believe the market is more likely to see bets being placed on ASU getting double digits following their shocking triple overtime win over then-No.3 UCLA Saturday. So, consider betting 50% of your normal bet size right away and then look at the market after 5 EST and add the remaining 50%, hopefully at a lower price tag. ASU is 8-21 ATS when taking on an excellent ball handling team that is averaging 14 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons. ASU is 5-14 ATS in games lined with a total between 140 and 149.5 points. Arizona is 8-1 ATS in games lined with a total between 140 and 149 points this season. ASU is 25-44 ATS when priced as a double-digit underdog over the last 25 seasons. |
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02-07-22 | NC-Wilmington v. Hofstra -7.5 | Top | 71-73 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
UNC-Wilmington vs Hofstra Hofstra is 25-12 ATS for 68% winning bets when taking on an opponent with a winning record in games played over the last three seasons. They are 26-12 ATS following a game in which they made at least 78% of their free throw attempts and 33-16 ATS coming off a home win and scoring 85 or more points. |
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02-06-22 | Monmouth -3.5 v. Quinnipiac | Top | 76-63 | Win | 100 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
Monmouth vs Quinnipiac Betting on road favorites including pick-em that are coming off win of three or fewer points and facing a shot that has allowed 75 or more points in three consecutive games has earned a 42-19 ATS record for 69% winning bets over the last five seasons. Monmouth is 7-1 ATS when playing a team with a winning record this season. Quinnipiac is 5-17 ATS in the second half of each of the last 10 seasons when facing an opponent with a win percentage between 60 and 80%. Quinnipiac’s defense has fallen completely apart over their last three games. They allowed 87 points in a 94-87 win over Marist, then lost their two previous games on the road 85-76 to Sienna and then 83-74 at St. Peters. |
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02-05-22 | UCLA v. Arizona State OVER 129.5 | Top | 84-87 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
UCLA vs Arizona State 4% best bet OVER the posted total Betting the OVER involving a home team that allowed 33% or worse opponent shooting in their last two games and in a matchup of two teams average at least 60 shots per game has earned a highly profitable 31-7 OVER record good for 82% winning bets over the last 25 seasons, 16-4 OVER for 80% winners the last five seasons, and 12-3 OVER for 80% over the last three seasons. UCLA is 8-1 OVER when facing an opponent that is making 42% or fewer of their shots. From the predictive models, UCLA is projected to score at least 75 points and in past games over the last three seasons when they have scored 75 or more points has seen the OVER go 14-2 for 78% winning bets. When ASU has allowed 75 or more points, the OVER has gone 15-5 for 75% winning bets spanning the last 3 seasons. |
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02-05-22 | Nebraska-Omaha +3.5 v. North Dakota | Top | 85-92 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 42 m | Show |
Nebraska- Omaha vs North Dakota Nebraska is 6-0 ATS over the last two seasons facing solid free throw shooting teams making 72% or more and when the game occurred after game number 15. Nebraska is 15-5 ATS facing a suspect defense allowing opponents a 48% or higher shooting percentage. North Dakota is 0-6 ATS when facing a team with a losing record this season and 1-8 ATS the past two seasons facing a foe that is allowing 77 or more PPG. |
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02-05-22 | Towson v. Northeastern +5.5 | Top | 53-58 | Win | 100 | 3 h 41 m | Show |
Towson State vs Northeastern 2:00 EST 4% on Northeastern plus the points Betting on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have been beaten by the spread by 42 points in total spanning their last seven games and taking on a host that has been beaten by the spread by 18 or more points in total over their last three games has earned a 63-25 ATS record good for 72% winning bets over the last 25 seasons, 22-9 ATS over the last five seasons, and 10-5 over the last three seasons. Take the Northeastern Huskies |
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02-05-22 | Fordham +5.5 v. St. Joe's | Top | 69-72 | Win | 100 | 2 h 42 m | Show |
Fordham vs St. Joes 1:00 EST Betting on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that has seen their last seven games play under by a total of 48 or more points and is now facing an opponent after their last three games went over the posted totals by a combined 30 points has earned a 74-41 ATS record for 64% winners over the last five seasons. Fordham is also 7-0 ATS in the second half of each of the last three seasons facing a team that averages 12 or fewer forced turnovers per game. |
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01-29-22 | Kentucky v. Kansas -4.5 | Top | 80-62 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
Kentucky vs Kansas 10-UNIT game of the Month on the Kansas Jayhawks minus the points. There are monumental traditions in this matchup starting with the head coaches. Calipari got his start in NCAA coaching at Kansas under Larry Brown, even met his wife at Kansas. Bill Self has been the head coach of Kansas for 19 seasons and got his start as a graduate assistant the year after Calipari left Kansas. How fate sometimes knows exactly what IT is doing. Now, the two winningest programs in Division-1 history face off with only a three-game deficit separating Kentucky (2,343-732) and Kansas (2,340-873) Jayhawk OchaiAgbaji has established himself as one of the nation's top threats and is coming off a career-high 37 points in a double-overtime win Monday against No. 13 Texas Tech. He presents all sorts of matchup problems for the Wildcats tonight. Agbaji averages 21.3 points, and Christian Braun chips in 15.3. No other Jayhawks average double figures, which reflects their significant depth, a strength Self taps using different combinations. The many different combinations that Self uses throughout any game is impossible for an opposing coach to match even if they do have a strong bench. Wildcats are just 7-22 ATS in road games with a posted total ranging between 150 and 159.5 points and 5-15 ATS following three consecutive conference games. Jayhawks are 32-15-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in six or seven of their last eight games and 68-36 ATS following a game in which they allowed 80 or more points and 33-16-1 ATS after allowing 85 or more points. Moreover, they are 42-24-2 ATS following a game in which both teams scored 80 or more points. In their previous game Kansas needed overtime to defeat Texas Tech 94-91. From my predictive models the following angles represent the projections for this game. Kentucky is just 24-55 ATS in road games allowing the host 47% or better shooting; 4-30 ATS 12% in road games allowing 80 to 86 points and 9-48 ATS 16% allowing 80 or more points in a road game. Kansas is 18-4-1 ATS 82% when scoring 80 or more points. |
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12-15-21 | Nebraska-Omaha +20 v. UNLV | Top | 71-84 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
Nebraska – Omaha vs UNLV 10:00 EST 12-15 4-Unit best bet on Nebraska – Omaha plus 19.5 points. The bet is valid if Nebraska-Omaha (NOU) is a 17.5-point or greater underdog. When is a nine-game losing streak a good thing? When the team we are betting is in a nine-game slide and there is a 77% ATS 25-year money-making machine supporting them. This angle has hit 77% ATS winners for the last 25 seasons on a 31-10 ATS record over the last 25 seasons and is 14-4 ATS over the last five seasons and is 4-0 ATS the past three seasons. Bet on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that have lost their last nine games in the month of December. The losing streak start in November, but the current game must be played in December. |
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12-06-21 | Presbyterian v. Morehead State OVER 121.5 | Top | 66-71 | Win | 100 | 1 h 8 m | Show |
Presbyterian vs Morehead State 7:00 PM EST, December 6, 2021 4-UNIT Best Bet on the OVER My predictive models are suggesting that 130 or more points will be scored in this game. They also project that Morehead State will shoot at least 47% from the field and Presbyterian will have fewer turnovers than Morehead State and make at least seven 3-pointers. Presbyterian is 6-0 OVER in games where they made 6 or more 3-point shots. Morehead State is 19-7 OVER the past three seasons and 75-52 OVER the past 20 seasons when they have shot 47% or better from the field. Love the OVER |
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04-05-21 | Baylor v. Gonzaga UNDER 159.5 | Top | 86-70 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
Baylor vs Gonzaga 9:00 PM EST, April 5, 2021 4% Best bet UNDER the posted total of 159 points. How in the world is this Championship Game even come close to matching the drama of the UCLA vs Gonzaga semifinal game, which is at the top of the All-Time greatest games in any sport. I do see this game being a physical war between these two juggernaut programs, who were ranked 1 and 2 in the nation throughout the season. Betting on the UNDER in neutral court settings with a total between 150.5 and 160 points in a matchup where the one team, Gonzaga, has scored 75 or more points in at least two consecutive games and now facing an opponent, Baylor, who is coming off a game in which they scored at least 40 or more points in the first-half of their last game has earned a solid 110-57-1 UNDER record for 67% winning bets over the last 15 seasons. If the ‘other’ team, Baylor, has scored 40 or more in two consecutive first-halves, the record moves up to 70% winning bets. |
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03-30-21 | USC +8.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 66-85 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
USC vs Gonzaga I am betting Houston at +500 to win the Championship. I also betting USC at +1400 to win the Championship as an alternative sprinkle of USC using the money line in this game. Far more bang for the buck doing it this way. Following game number 15 of the regular season, betting on Neutral court UNDERDOGS that are good defensive teams allowing 63-67 PPG and now facing an elite offensive team scoring at least 77 PPG and coming off a win by 15 or more points has earned a 24-5 ATS record good for 83% winning bets over the last five seasons. |
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03-28-21 | Florida State +2.5 v. Michigan | Top | 58-76 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
Florida State vs Michigan 4% Best Bet on Florida State +2 points or the money line +115 or higher. I will be playing this bet using the money line and it will be graded on the site as a money line play. The line has drifted to the 2-point price level and if you believe FSU is going to win, then the money line offers better value at +115. If the money line is at +110, for instance, then consider a combination wager of FSU +1.5/+2 points for 50% of your normal 4% bet amount and then another 50% betting the money line at +110. In the NCAA Tournament action dating back to the 2009 season (2010 March Madness), betting on underdogs of four or fewer points, that have averaged 72 or fewer possessions-per-game, have earned a 138-88-1 ATS record for 61% winning bets. This system has earned the $100 bettor a profit of $4,332 or a highly profitable 18% return-on-investment (ROI). So far in the NCAA Tournament, this system has done well with a 9-5 ATS for 64% winning bets and a nice 24.2 % ROI. FSU is 21-5-1 ATS when dressed as an underdog of six or fewer points dating back to the 2005 season. FSU head coach Hamilton relishes this underdog role sporting a 12-3 ATS record playing on neutral courts as an underdog of three or fewer points and 19-4 ATS as an underdog of six or fewer points. |
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03-28-21 | Creighton v. Gonzaga OVER 158.5 | Top | 65-83 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 20 m | Show |
Creighton vs Gonzaga 4% Best Bet OVER the posted total of 158 points. We all have seen many more UNDER results this NCAA Tournament, and with the UNDER a perfect 4-0 UNDER yesterday. These UNDERS combined for going under their respective totals by 78 points in total and is easily above the highest UNDER total for a sweet 16 round since 2010, which occurred in the 2014 tournament and a total of 38 points. For this matchup, the OVER is the play based on my research and machine learning applications. The line and total imply a Gonzaga 86-73 win today over Creighton. The ML apps underscore Gonzaga’s points total of 86 or more points. Gonzaga has an 82% probability of scoring 86 or more points. In past games, Creighton is 7-0 OVER when they have allowed 87 or more points spanning the last three seasons. Gonzaga is 30-3 OVER when both they and their opponent have scored 75 or more points spanning the last three seasons. Gonzaga is 75-2 and 55-15 OVER in games scoring 81 or more points spanning the last five seasons and teams in the NCAA Tournament that have scored 87 or more points, are 52-4 and 50-6 OVER spanning the last six NCAA Tournaments. |
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03-27-21 | Syracuse +6.5 v. Houston | Top | 46-62 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Syracuse vs Houston Sweet 16 Round Hinkle Fieldhouse 9:55 PM EST, March 27, 2021 4% Best Bet on Syracuse +6.5 points I like a red-hot Syracuse team that once again is proving the nay-sayers wrong. Jim Boeheim is one of the best coaches All-Time and has the Syracuse 2-3 zone defense holding their first two opponents to less than 36% shooting. Even though, Houston has had many days to prepare for this defense, facing it in a LIVE game is far more different than studying game films. Houston is certainly an elite team, but in order to attack a 2-3 zone, an offense needs a strong post presence. Houston does not have that strong scoring threat in the post, and I see Syracuse doing a great job contesting every 3-point shot attempt. Boeheim is 10-1 ATS when his teams have been seeded 9 through 12 in the NCAA Tournament. Houston is 1-9 ATS in games away from home following a low-scoring game in which 125 or fewer points were scored spanning the last three seasons. |
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03-22-21 | Oklahoma v. Gonzaga -14 | Top | 71-87 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show |
Oklahoma vs Gonzaga 4% Best bet on Gonzaga –14 points Betting on neutral court favorites in a matchup involving the favorite being an elite offense averaging 77 or more PPG and are coming off two consecutive games scoring 85 or more points, and facing an average D-1 defense that is allowing between 67 and 75 PPG has earned a highly profitable 74-32 ATS record for 70% winning bets over the last five seasons. Gonzaga is 27-0, 13-12 ATS, and is averaging 92.3 PPG, 45.7 PPG in the first half, and making 55% of their shot attempts. Despite playing at the 7th-fastest pace of play in the nation, their defense holds up extremely well and allows just 69 PPG, 31.5 PPG in the first half, and 41.4% shooting. Oklahoma is 16-10 SU, 13-12 ATS, and average 74.7 PPG, 34.2 PPG in the first half, and shooting a below average 44% from the field. Their defense has allowed 69 PPG, 31.5 PPG in the first half, and 42% opponent shooting. However, over their last five games, they have regressed and average 70.6 PPG, 29.4 PPF in the first half, and make 43% of their shots. On the defensive side, they have allowed 71.6 PPG, 33.6 first half PPG, and allowed 45% shooting over their last five games. So, Gonzaga is playing well, and may not have even peeked yet, and now facing an Oklahoma team that is struggling a bit at both ends of the court. Gonzaga has shot 50% or better from the field in all but TWO of their 27 games and both of those games they shot 49.2% from the field. They have outscored their opponents by 23.7 PPG, and have the fifth-best assist-to-turnover ratio at 1.543. They also have the 21st-best defense assist-to-turnover ratio at 0.755. Oklahoma ranks 128th with a 0.929 opponent assist-to-turnover. So, how in the world is Oklahoma going to slow Gonzaga’s constant offensive attack? I do not think they will or can even on their best day. From the machine learning applications, we learn that Gonzaga is expected to score at least 87 points. When Gonzaga has scored 80 or more points, they are 45-26-1 ATS, and when scoring 87 or more points, they are 41-15-1 ATS for 73% winning bets. |
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03-21-21 | Oregon State v. Oklahoma State -6 | Top | 80-70 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
Oregon State vs Oklahoma State Oklahoma State is a perfect 7-0 ATS since the 15-game of this season facing teams that were averaging 12 or fewer turnovers-per-game. Oregon State is a money-burning 7-22 ATS coming off a four or more-game win streak spanning the last ten seasons. Oklahoma State is 13-3 ATS after having won four or five of their last six games this season. Oklahoma State is 8-2 ATS on neutral courts and having won five or more of their last six games. From the machine learning applications, we are expecting Oklahoma State to shoot between 48 and 53% from the field and to attempt 57 to 64 shots. They are 9-1 ATS when they have met these performance measures. |
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03-21-21 | Oral Roberts v. Florida -9 | Top | 81-78 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
Oral Roberts vs Florida Oral Roberts pulled off one of the biggest upsets in Tournament history in their win over Ohio State. The following betting system reveals how difficult it will be for them to pull off another giant-killing upset win. This system has earned a 44-15-1 ATS record for 74% winning bets over the last five seasons and requires us to bet on neutral court favorites that are from a Major D-1 Conference and facing a team that is from a Mid-Major Conference and that is also playing their second neutral court game in the past three days. A second betting system has earned a 51-19 ATS record for 73% winning bets over the last 25 seasons. Bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are facing a team that is on a four or more-game win streak and are seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA Tournament. Florida head coach White is 7-0 ATS when facing an opponent that has been getting outrebounded by four or more rebounds-per-game. He is also 13-3-1 SATS away from Gainesville when having failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games. |
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03-21-21 | Wisconsin +6.5 v. Baylor | Top | 63-76 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 8 m | Show |
Wisconsin vs Baylor 4% best bet on Wisconsin +6.5 points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line. I will be betting this game with 85% of my 4% bet size using the spread and the remaining 15% on the money line. I had thought that UNC would advance to this game against Baylor, but Wisconsin and their strong 3-point shooting present far more problems for Baylor. Wisconsin’s Davison had 29 points in the 85-62 route of UNC. They had only seven turnovers and strong ball-handling is a definite requirement in order to take down Baylor. Given that the fourth seed Purdue and two seed Ohio State both lost, the winner of this game will have the easiest remaining schedule to win the region and advance to the Final-Four. Betting on neutral court underdogs that are coming off a win of 15 or more-points, have a solid defense allowing 67 or fewer PPG, and are now facing an excellent offensive team averaging 75 or more PPG has earned a 25-5 ATS record over the last five seasons. In the NCAA Tournament teams that are allowing 67 or fewer PPG and facing an opponent that is averaging 75 or more PPG have earned a 176-124 ATS record for 59% winning bets. |
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03-21-21 | Loyola-Chicago v. Illinois -7 | Top | 71-58 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 43 m | Show |
Loyola-Illinois vs Illinois 4% Best bet on Illinois –7 points Betting on neutral court favorites that are coming off a 20-point or more blowout win and now facing an opponent coming off three consecutive double-digit wins has earned a 37-14 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons. Illinois has tremendous balance and bench strength that will wear down the Loyola team over the course of the game, especially the second half of this matchup. Illinois overwhelmed Drexel with a two-man punch of All-Big Ten center Kofi Cockburn and All-American Ayo Dosunmu. Cockburn had 18 points, including a run of eight in a row, and Dosunmu awakened from a slow start to chip in 17 points, 11 rebounds, five assists and three steals in the first-round victory. Illinois has been near-perfect on the offensive end during their recent surge and are making the correct ball screen reads and as a result all five players are getting high-percentage looks. They share the ball, and you can see the fun and energy they bring to the court. Four of the five Illini starters scored in double-digits in the win over Drexel. Illinois took only seven 3-point shots among the total of 63 shot attempts against Drexel. You can bet they will look to pound the paint and take as many mid-range jumpers as possible. They will also look to speed up the game right from the opening tip and take Loyola out of their plodding pace that ranks 346th nationally. Illinois has the fifth most difficult schedule and are currently 7th in positive team momentum. Loyola had the 140th toughest schedule and rank 284th in momentum. In fact, Loyola’s momentum has regressed modestly. Illinois has a major advantage of the offensive glass and will have a big edge in second-chance scores. They rank 5th nationally in second-chance scoring and I just do not see how Loyola will be able to withstand the Illini’s offensive efficiency. Illinois head coach Underwood is a highly profitable 35-15 ATS when facing solid ball-handling teams that are averaging 12 or fewer turnovers-per-game. |
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03-20-21 | Abilene Christian v. Texas -8.5 | Top | 53-52 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Abilene Christian vs Texas 5% or 10-Star Best Bet on Texas – 8.5 points Coming off a terrible day on Friday going 0-3 ATS with 8-UNIT Best Bets, but at least winning Loyola as a 6-UNIT winning bet. UCLA won Thursday as a 8-UNIT Best Bet bring the 2-day record to 1-3 with 8-UNIT and 1-0 with 6-UNIT Best Bets. I mention this only to remind all of us, including myself, that this is a grinding marathon for 365-days. I am expecting to post my sixth consecutive profitable NCAA Tournament, but do NOT increase your bet size. Stay disciplined and maintain the long-term view to profitability that has served me quite well for 26 years. Betting on favorites in a matchup of similar offenses that are averaging 74 to 79 PPG, after the 15th game of the regular season including all Tournament action, and with the dog coming off three straight double-digit wins has earned a 40-23-2 ATS record for 63.5% winning bets over the last 15 seasons. If the favorite is lined between 3.5 and 9.5 points, the record improves to 26-8-2 ATS for 77% winning bets and has won nine straight ATS. Texas has big-time advantages across the board and at both ends of the court. Abilene Christian ranks 319th in strength of schedule and this is a sizable jump in competition taking on a Texas squad that has been far more consistent, and plays better away from Austin. Make no mistake about it, Texas will look to pressure every ball-handler looking to force turnovers and get quick fast-break scores. Texas ranks 56th in the nation in points off of steals and 40th in defensive field goal attempt rate. |
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03-20-21 | Grand Canyon v. Iowa -14 | Top | 74-86 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
Grand Canyon vs Iowa NCAA First Round, Indiana Farmers Coliseum, Indianapolis, IN 6:25 PM EST, March 20, 2021 4% Best Bet on Iowa – 14.5 points. Iowa is 27-11-1 ATS facing defensive teams that are forcing 14 or fewer turnovers-per-game over the last two seasons. Iowa is 13-3 ATS installed as a double-digit favorite spanning the last two seasons. Iowa is 17-5 ATS in games lined with a total between 140 and 149.5 points spanning the last two seasons. Iowa is 10-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games spanning the last three seasons. Iowa is 9-1 ATS coming off a game allowing 45 or more points in the first half of their last game over the last three seasons. Iowa is 8-1 ATS adfter a double-digit loss over the last two seasons. Iowa Head coach McCaffery is 44-27 ATS as a double-digit favorite From the machine learning applications, we learn that Iowa is 20-7-1 ATS for 75% winning bets when they have scored 81 or more points in games played over the last two seasons. The team is led by super-stud Luc Garza and is on eof the five starters that returned from last season. They have incredible chemistry and team leadership and this season was dedicated to winning the NCAA Championship. They rank best ball-handling team in the nation with an incredible 2.07 assists-to-turnover ratio. |
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03-20-21 | Iona v. Alabama OVER 146.5 | Top | 55-68 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
Iona vs Alabama This total opened at 143 points and has seen smart money hitting the OVER lifting the market price to a current 147-points. My machine learning applications continue to ‘love’ the OVER with a high probability of both teasm socring 75 or more points and a final tally of about 160 points. One way to play this this total is to place 50% of your normal 4% betting amount pre-flop and then look to add 25% more at 143 and the last 25% at 138.5 points. If both teams start out fast, you may not get the chance to add the two parts. However, as we have seen in the first day’s action, the in-game pricing is extremely fast and volatile. So, let that volatility work for you in this game. Alabama is 41-26 OVER when installed as a favorite in games played over the last three seasons and 23-11-1 ATS in non-conference games played over the last three seasons. Alabama head coach Oats is 28-14-1 ATS when playing just the second game spanning the past week; 32-14 ATS when playing against an opponent that has won 60 to 80% of their games on the season and only in games played after the 15th game of the regular season. |
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03-20-21 | Eastern Washington +10.5 v. Kansas | Top | 84-93 | Win | 100 | 2 h 12 m | Show |
Eastern Washington vs Kansas 1:15 PM EST, March 20, 2021 The 70-point level is goping to the key for this game and if EWU is going to pull-off an Oral Roberts-like upset over the 3-seed Kansas Jayhawks. The machine learning applications predict a high probability that EWU is going to score more than 70 points. EWU is 13-3 ATS when scoring 70 or more points this season. They are a losing record when not scoring more than 70 points. Kansas was 18-0 SU when holding an opponent to fewer than 70 points and just 2-8 when allowing 70 or more points this season. EWU center Tanner Groves has the opportunity for a huge game. They rank 12th nationally in points scored by the center at 28% of total points. Kansas forward David McCormack has been upgraded to probable for this game due to the COVID Quarantine protocol. Still, he is going to have his hands full trying to contain Groves and no one has any clue how much fatigue will impact McCormack. The biggest problem for the KU defense will be leaving the perimeter open when Groves gets the ball in the box. EWU guards accounted for a modest portion of the scoring, BUT the team has shot 35% from beyomd the arc. Big Sky Conference preseason Player-of-the-Year Jacob Davison, who doesn’t even start, hit 37% from behind the arc and went 9-18 in his last game. EWU knows how to spread the floor and the defense and take the best shot the defense provides them. From the machine learning applications, we learn that EWU is 11-2 ATS when making at least 33% of their 3-point shots in games played over the last two seasons. They are projected to make at least 80% of their free throw attempts and when doing so are 20-7 ATS in games played over the last three seasons. |
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03-19-21 | North Texas v. Purdue -7 | Top | 78-69 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
North Texas vs Purdue 4% Best Bet on Purdue -7 points Let us start with a solid and consistent monmey-making betting system that has earned a 62-23 ATS record good for 72% winning bets over the last 25 seasons. The system requires a bet be made on favorites that are facing an opponent on a four or more-game win streak and is a 13 through 16-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Purdue is a solid rebounding team that has averaged 37.6 rebounds-per-game and have outrebounded opponents by 6.2 per-game on the season. Note that North Texas is a money-losing 21-44 ATS away from home and facing an opponent that is outrebounding their opponent by an average of 5 or more rebounds-per-game. Purdue’s head coach is 13-3 ATS in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. He is also 18-6 ATS when facing an opponent that averages a below average 15 free-throws-per-game. We learning from the machine learning applications, that Purdue is 13-3 ATS when having four or more offensive boards-per-game than their opponents over the last two seasons. The apps are predicting that North Texas will have fewer than 62 points. North Texas is just 35-60 ATS when scoring 62 or fewer points. |
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03-19-21 | Oregon State v. Tennessee -8.5 | Top | 70-56 | Loss | -103 | 3 h 6 m | Show |
Oregon State vs Tennessee I certainly do not see any traditional upset here with a 12 vs 5 matchup in the first round. To start, OSU head coach Barnes is a terrible 7-22 ATS when playing against a team with a win percentage between 51 and 60% and 8-24 ATS away from home and facing an excellent ball handling team that is committing 12 or fewer turnovers-per-game after the 15th game of the regular season including conference and NCAA, NIT Tournaments. Based on my opponent-adjusted rankings, UT is the 15th-best and OSU is the 75th-best team in the nation. UT has had a much-better resum based on overall record quality and are a superior team on both ends of the court. UT ranks 25 with a 45.9% opponent effective FG percentage. OSU is just not a good shooting team and is a main reason they play a slower style of game. They do not have the personnel to get involved into a track meet with UT. OSU ranks 230th with a 48.7% offensive effective FG percentage. From the machine learning applications we know that UT is 151-50-6 ATS for 75% winning bets when scoring 75 or more points in all games played over the last 15 seasons. |
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03-19-21 | Utah State +4.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 53-65 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
Utah State vs Texas Tech Utah State is the 11-seed going up against a strong Texas Tech 6-seed in this first-round matchup taking place at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall in Bloomington, Indiana. Utah State has the make-up to win this game and send Texas Tech home. Both teams playing slower than the average D-1 pace of play. UST averages 69.2 possessions-per-40-minutes and TTU averages an even slower pace averaging 66.9 possessions. UST is playing their best games entering the tournament while TTU has been on a minor regression. UST will look to score from the paint and at the rim as often as possible. They are an excellent passing team and will always make the extra pass to get the highest percentage shot. Their excellent ball movement is going to be tough for TTU defense to contain despite ranking in the top-20 of most defensive efficiency measures. UST is also quite good at scoring on second-chance opportunities. So, the more offensive boards they get and the greater the margin of offensive boards compared to TTU, the better their chances of winning this game. TTU is just 2-11 ATS when facing teams called for fewer than 17 fouls-per-game this season and 10-20 ATS when facing strong defenses that are allowing 42% or lower shooting over the last two seasons. UST is 9-2 ATS following two consecutive games allowing 30 or fewer points in the first half. TTU head Coach Beard is 14-26 ATS off a loss to a conference foe and 4-15 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite to a conference foe. Bet 4% on the Utah State Aggies and sprinkle the money line with a bit extra and not greater than a 1% amount. |
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03-18-21 | UCLA +2 v. Michigan State | Top | 86-80 | Win | 100 | 33 h 23 m | Show |
UCLA vs Michigan State 4% Best bet on UCLA + 2 points. The sentiment expectaions are highly overvalued and the betting public is betting MSU with irraytional exhuberance. So, this is a contrarian bet, going against the 77% or more of the bets seeing action on MSU. Currently, 77% of the bets made are on MSU, but just 52% of the money. On my live shows this week, which can found at Predictive Playbook on YouTube, I had suggested that MSU should have been seeded and that Syracuse was the team that should have been slotted into this play-in matchup with UCLA. Upon further review, and having run my machine learning applications, there is no doubt in my mind that the selection committee got it right. Noyte, too that I am stating that UCLA is guaranteed of getting the win. I am saying, that UCLA is the smart bet in this matchup and making smart bets over the course of the Tournament is a solid path toward potential profitability. MSU is 5-19 ATS in orad/neutral court setting when playing ateam with a winning record over the last two seasons; 4-14 ATS in road/netral court settings and facing an opponent that is outscoring their opponents by at least four or more points-per-game; 0-7 ATS this season away from home and following five consecutive games where their opponent committed 14 or fewer turnovers. From the machine learning applications, we are enlightened that MSU is 2-11 ATS in games in which they attempted 55 to 65 shots this season; 18-61 ATS in games played and allowing 75 to 81 points over the last 15 seasons. |
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03-13-21 | Oregon State v. Colorado -9 | Top | 70-68 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Oregon State vs Coloroado Colorado has significant advantages at both ends of the court. The greatest advantage is at the charity stripe where Colorado gets to the line as much as the average PAC-12 or D-1 team but ranks best in the nation making 83.4% of those shots. Colorado ranks 103rd with a 26.6 free-throw attempt rate and will exceed their season average by as many as ten attempts given that OSU ranks 245th in defensive free-throw attempt rate. |
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03-13-21 | Iona v. Fairfield +8.5 | Top | 60-51 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 54 m | Show |
Iona vs Fairfield I recommend playing this bet in two parts consisting of 85% of your 4% bet size on the spread, and 15% on the money line. Depending on your risk appetite a ratio of 90% spread and 10% money line may be more to your liking and is perfectly ok. The point is to not exceed 15% of your 4% amount using the money line. These ratios provide the best total rate of return (ROI) over the course of the season – not just a single day. A few quick hitters. |
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03-13-21 | Ohio State +5.5 v. Michigan | Top | 68-67 | Win | 100 | 1 h 59 m | Show |
Ohio State vs Michigan I recommend playing this bet in two parts consisting of 85% of your 4% bet size on the spread, and 15% on the money line. Depending on your risk appetite a ratio of 90% spread and 10% money line may be more to your liking and is perfectly ok. The point is to not exceed 15% of your 4% amount using the money line. These ratios provide the best total rate of return (ROI) over the course of the season – not just a single day.
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03-13-21 | UMass Lowell v. Hartford -151 | Top | 50-64 | Win | 100 | 3 h 46 m | Show |
UMASS-Lowell vs Hartford 4% Best Bet on Hartford -2.5 points Hartford is the better team at both ends of the court and will control the pace of play. Both teams won their semifinal game last Saturday so they have had seven days of rest and prep time for this Championship game. The pace of play of the entire conference is on eof the slowest in the nation. The AEC averages 68 possessions-per-40-minutes with no team averaging 70 or more. UMASS-Lowell (UML) plays second-fastest at 69.3 poessessions-per-40-minutes and Hartford eighth of the 10-team conference averaging 66.4 possessions. Hartford has a much better defense than UML based on assist-to-turnover ratio. The machine learning applications predict that UML will have at least five more turnovers than Hartford. Teams in the conference final that scpore more points than their season-to-date average and their opponent commits 4 or more turnovers than they do has led to a 9-3-1 ATS record for 75% winning bets over the last five seasons. |
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03-12-21 | Connecticut v. Creighton -1 | Top | 56-59 | Win | 100 | 4 h 40 m | Show |
Connecticut vs Creighton 4% Best Bet on Crieghton -1 Play on neutral court favorites or pick-em that are coming off a blowout win of 20 or more points in their last game and now facing an opponent coming off three consecutive double-digit wins has earned a highly profitable 34-14 ATS record for 71% ATS winners. The machine learning applications predict that Crieghton will have five or fewer tunrovers than UCONN and have the better assists-to-turnover ratio. In games where Creighton has matched or exceeded these measures has produced a 20-3 ATS record over the last five seasons. UCONN is a miserable 4-17 ATS in road games after four consecutive double-digit wins. |
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03-11-21 | North Carolina -3.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 81-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
North Carolina vs Virginia Tech |
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03-11-21 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky -3 | Top | 74-73 | Loss | -112 | 1 h 42 m | Show |
Mississippi State vs Kentucky 4% Best Bet on Kentucky -4 points Betting on neutral court teams that are solid on the defensive end allowing 42.5 to 45% opponent shooting and now facing a team that is shooting between 45 and 47.5% and is the better ball handlin team committing no more than 14 turnovers-per-game and their opponent averaging more than 14 turnovers-per-game has earned a 35-13-1 ATS record over the last five seasons for 73% winning bets. Calipari is a perfect 7-0 ATS after a game in which his team made 13 or more 3-point shots. |