25* graded play on Jacksonville State as they take on Memphis in a rare inter-conference matchup set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that JAX State will lose this game by fewer than 15 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 117-68 mark good for 63% winners since 2009. Play against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (MEMPHIS) that is an average three-point shooting team making between 32 and 36.5% and is now facing a poor 3-point shooting defense allowing >=36.5% after 15+ games have been played. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. JAX State is a solid 28-10 ATS (+17.0 Units) in road games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread since 1997. Memphis has struggled to a 2-2 record over their last four games and have lost all four ATS. They shot just 35% and allowed 55% shooting in a 82-64 loss to Gonzaga and failed by the hook to cover a 17 1/2 point dog line. JAX is led by guard Darion Rackley, who has team highs in minutes (32) and points scored (15.4). The other guard is JaQual Townswer, who  is team leader in assists (3.5) and also scores 8 PPG and adds 1.33 steals. I see this guard combination being able to compete against Memphis. Not calling the dramatic upset, but I do believe they keep this game to mostly single digit deficits. Take Jacksonville State.

25* graded play on Wisconsin as they take on Indiana in Big Ten Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Wisconsin will win this game by 21 or more points. Indiana has not won a basketball game in Madison in 17 years. Wisconsin is head and shoulders above all other teams in the conference and they are poised for another deep run in the NCAA Tournament this season. They are a well prepared team and extremely focused on the present - taking it literally one possession at a time. They are certainly deserving of being a heavy favorite in this matchup. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Wisconsin is a solid 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when they make 31% to 37% of their three point attempts in a game over the last 2 seasons; 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when they grab 4 to 9 more rebounds than their opponents in a game over the last 3 seasons; 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they score 81 to 86 points in a game over the last 2 seasons; 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when they score 81 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Indiana does not have a strong defensive presence and plays games with the attitude to outscore the opponent. They rank ninth in the nation in scoring offense (80.3 PPG), but rank a dismal 294th in scoring defense (72.0 PPG). By comparison, Wisconsin ranks 42nd in scoring offense (74) and seventh in scoring defense at (55.5 PPG). I strongly believe that Wisconsin will execute at will on the offensive end adn that their defensive presence will make it significantly more difficult for Indiana to score points. Take Wisconsin.

25* graded play on North Carolina as they take on Virginia in ACC Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that UNC will win this game. UVA is coming off their first loss of the season. They enjoyed an eight point lead with a little more than 4 minutes to go. Duke came storming back and hit three's from all over and won the game finishing on a 19-5 run. That sting will still be present in this matchup against No. 12 UNC. Virginia wins with their defense. UNC wins with scoring the most second-chance points per game in the nation. UVA allows just 6.6 2nd-chance points per game and UNC scores 15 2nd-chance points per game. This contrasting style is also shown in the tempos that both teams play. UNC ranks best in the ACC and 8th in the nation averaging 71 possessions per game. UVA is the second-slowest team in the nation averaging just 59 possessions per game. American ranks slowest at 57.7 possessions. I see UNC being able to get offensive boards and have a significant edge in multi-shot possessions. Further, their fast tempo will gradually wear UVA down over the course of the game. Take UNC. 

25* graded play on the Western Illinois as they take on North Dakota State in Summit Conference action set to start at 3:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Western Illinois will lose this gam,e by fewer than 5 points and has a great shot at getting the home upset win. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager consisting of a 22* play using the line and a 3* play using the money line. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. NDST is just  2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons;  1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when they score 61 to 66 points in a game over the last 2 seasons; WIU is a solid money making 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they grab 34 to 39 rebounds in a game over the last 3 seasons. WIU forward Mike Miklusak is out for this game with a leg injury. His minutes will be filled by several solid bench players. Take Western Illinois. 

25* graded play on Marist as they take on Canisius in MAAC Conference action set to start at 2:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Marist will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Marist is arguably one of the weakest college basketball teams in the nation. Yet, this matchup, I expect, to be to their liking. Canius ranks higher in the majority of meaningful performance stats, but not enough to be be a 11 1/2 point favorite to any team. Canisius ranks 53rd in the nation in scoring defense. By itself, this is quite impressive, but it is highly misleading. The reason is that they play a very slow style of game on the offensive end. They rank 173rd in assists allowed and 289th in rebounds allowed. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 66-31 mark good for 68% winners since 1997.  Play against home favorites of 10 or more points (CANISIUS) after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread and is a team winning between 60% to 80% of their games and is now playing a terrible team winning less than

25* graded play on Florida State as they host Miami (Fla) in an ACC Conference matchup set to start at 12:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that FSU will win this game. The line is currently showing FSU installed as a 2 point dogs. Unless, the line moves to +3 would a combination wager be validated based on the ROI. Should that occur, then a play comprised of a 21* amount on the line and a 4* amount on the money line would work well. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-10 mark good for 77% winners using the money line and making 23 units/unit wagered since 2009. Play against all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (MIAMI) off an upset loss as a home favorite and is a solid team winning between 60% to 80% of their games and is now playing a marginal winning team winning between 51% to 60% of their games.  The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. FSU head coach Hamilton is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a home underdog or pick.; 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season. Further, Miami is a money burning 4-6 against the money line (-21.0 Units) when competing against good ball handling teams committing

25* graded play on Pepperdine as they take on St. Mary's in West Coast Conference action set to start at 6:00 PM ET.   The simulator shows a high probability that St. Mary's will lose this game by fewer than eight points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Pepperdine is a solid 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) when they grab eight or less offensive rebounds in a game over the last two seasons; 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when they force 10 to 13 turnovers in a game over the last 2 seasons; 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when they commit 10 to 13 turnovers in a game over the last 2 seasons. Pepperdine is also an outstanding  8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when competing against solid defensive teams allowing

25* graded play on theLouisville when they host North Carolina in ACC Conference action set to start at 4:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Louisville will win this game by 7 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 71-33 ATS mark for 68% winners since 1997. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LOUISVILLE) and is a cold team failing to cover six or seven of their last eight against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams winning >= 80%.  The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. UNC is an imperfect  0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when competing against elite teams outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons. UNC is also an imperfect  0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after a combined score of 165 points or more over the last two seasons; 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better over the last 3 seasons. 

25* graded play on the Rutgers as they take on Indiana in Big Ten Conference action set to start at 3:15 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Rutgers will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-15 ATS for 74% winners since 1997. Play on road underdogs of 10 or more points (RUTGERS) after scoring 55 points or less in a loss to a conference rival and is now playing with one day rest. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Rutgers is a solid s 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after 2 straight games with 12 or less assists over the last 3 seasons. Indiana is a money burning 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) after 2 straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 50% or higher since 1997. In fact, the Indiana defense has been just terrible over their last three games. In their last three games, they allowed a 59% shooting percentage to Purdue and lost 83-67 installed as 4 1/2 point dogs. Then they allowed 63% shooting in an 82-70 loss at Ohio State. And third last game, they allowed 51% shooting in a 89-70 home win against Maryland. I fully expect Rutgers to have an above average offensive night and will keep this game to 10 or fewer points throughout. Take Rutgers.

25* graded play on the Florida as they host Arkansas in SEC Conference action set to start at 1:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Florida will win this game by nine or more points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Arkansas is a money burning 38-61 ATS (-29.1 Units) in road games when they attempt 54 to 62 shots in a game since 1997; 38-62 ATS (-30.2 Units) in road games when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game since 1997;  20-46 ATS (-30.6 Units) in road games when their opponents make 38% to 45% of their 3 pointers in a game since 1997. Florida is a solid 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons; 80-46 ATS (+29.4 Units) when they make 38% to 45% of their three point attempts in a game since 1997. Further, Arkansas is just  4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) off a home win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. Florida is a near-perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Starting Florida guard, Michael Frazier II, is probable for this game. He is the team-leader in minutes (31) and scoring (13.4), but is a big part of the solid defense that Florida brings to this game. Arkansas ranks fifth in scoring offense, BUT I firmly believe that the Florida defense that ranks 24 in scoring, 22nd in assists allowed, and 11th in the all-important assist-to-turnover ratio will dominate. Take Florida.

25* graded play on Western Michigan as they take on Eastern Michigan in MAC Conference action set to start at 12:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Western Michigan will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager using a 22* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line for a total risk of 27* units. This combination combined with the probabilities maximizes the risk/reward profile and total rate of return of the investment (ROI).  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-6 ATS for 79% winners over the past five seasons. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (E MICHIGAN) in a game involving two good FT shooting teams (69-73%) after 15 or more games and after two straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 37% or less. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Further, EMU head coach Murphy is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after two straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 37% or less. 

25* graded play on Notre Dame as they take on Pittsburgh in ACC Conference action set to start at 12:00 Noon ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Notre Dame will win this game by 9 or more points. Simply said, Pitt does not have the defense nor the depth to play with ND high-powered offense. ND is off one of the biggest wins for the programs of the past several years. That win over Duke is one that builds tremendous confidence and chemistry for any team and reveals to them that they as a unit really belong in the elite rankings. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Pittsburgh is a money burner 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when their opponents make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last three seasons;  0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when their opponents make 38% to 45% of their 3 pointers in a game this season;  1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when they grab 9 to 13 offensive rebounds in a game this season;  4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) when they score 67 to 74 points in a game over the last 3 seasons. Last, Pitt is an imperfect  0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) facing solid good defensive teams allowing

25* graded play on Western Illinois as they take on IUPUI in Summit Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Western Illinois will win this game. They are currently lined as two point dogs. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-21 ATS mark good for 69% winners since 2009. Play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (IUPUI) after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games and is now facing an opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games.  The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. IUPUI is just  3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when they make 23% to 30% of their three point attempts in a game over the last 3 seasons; 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) when they score 60 or less points in a game over the last 3 seasons; 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when they commit 14 to 18 turnovers in a game over the last 3 seasons; Western Illinois is  11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they grab 34 to 39 rebounds in a game over the last 3 seasons. Take Western Illinois.

25* graded play on Dartmouth as they take on Penn in IVY League action set to start at 7:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Dartmouth will win this game by five or more points. Penn is a horrid ball handling team ranking 312th in the nation with a 0.72 assist-to-turnover ratio. By comparison, Dartmouth ranks 13th with a 1.015 assist-to-turnover ratio. A ratio below 1 reveals that a team is committing more turnovers then generating assists. A number above 1.000 is the beginning target for strong ball handling teams. In case you were wondering, Notre Dame ranks best in this important category with an outstanding 1.706 ratio. So, I believe Penn will be turnover prone again in this matchup allowing Dartmouth to generate fast break scoring opportunities in transition. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Penn is just 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) as a home underdog of three points or less or pick since 1997.;  1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after playing a game where both teams score 65 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Take Dartmouth.


25* graded play on the UC-Davis as they host UC- Santa Barbara in Big West Conference action set to start at 10:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UC-Davis will win this game by three or more points. The biggest factor in this game is the tremendous perimeter shooting by UC-Davis. They rank best in the nation in three-point shot percentage at 44% and fourth in overall shooting at 50%. UCSB us not a good perimeter defending team ranking 20th in opponent three-point shooting. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. UCSB is a weak  1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when their opponents make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons; 32-66 ATS (-40.6 Units) when their opponents make 38% to 45% of their 3 pointers in a game since 1997. Cal Davis is a solid 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons;  41-21 ATS (+17.9 Units) when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game since 1997. Cal Davis is a solid 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) facing poor pressure defensive teams forcing

25* graded play on Marshall as they take on Southern Mississippi in C-USA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Marshall will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making this a combination wager consisting of a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 60-93 mark using the Money Line good for just 39% winners, BUT has made a whopping 68 units/unit wagered averaging a +268 DOG play since 1997. Win percentage means very little and units won means everything when dealing with Money Line systems , trends, and game situations.  The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. SM is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season. Take Marshall. 

25* graded play on Belmont as they host Jacksonville State in Ohio Valley Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Belmont will win this game by 15 or more points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. JAX State is just 24-41 ATS (-21.1 Units) when they make 34% to 39% of their shots in a game since 1997; 31-54 ATS (-28.4 Units) when their opponents make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game since 1997. Further, they are a money burning 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) facing poor pressure defensive teams forcing

25* graded play on TCU as they take on Kansas in Big-12 Conference action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that TCU will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great shot at winning the game. I like making this a combination wager comprised of a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Looking at the matchups, the TCU defense is vastly stronger than Kansas and will be the dominant reason TCU gets this big home upset win. TCU defense ranks 15th in scoring, fourth allowing 8,8 assists per game, and 12th posting a 0.673 opponent assist-to-turnover ratio. By comparison, Kansas ranks 128th in scoring defense, 119th in assists allowed, and 214th posting a 1.014 opponent assist-to-turnover ratio. This game will see two of the best guards in the conference compete. I give the edge to TCU's Kyan Anderson over Kansas' Frank Mason. Anderson plays superior defense and will have offensive advantages as well. I expect Mason to be under his scoring average of 12.7 PPG and for Anderson to be well above his scoring average of 13.7 PPG. It will be the TCU defense that gets the job done. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 129-69 ATS mark good for 65% winners since 2008. Play against any team (KANSAS) that is a hot team having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread and is a top-level team winning >= 80% of their games and now playing a good team winning between 60% to 80% of their games.  The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Kansas is just 57-107 ATS (-60.7 Units) when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game since 1997; 43-72 ATS (-36.2 Units) when they score 67 to 74 points in a game since 1997. Take TCU.

25* graded play on Boise State as they take on Colorado State in Mountain West Conference action set to start at 11:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that BS will win this game by four or more points. Boise plays fast and quick led by an offense that at times during games has four guards on the court.  The guard duo of Anthony Drmic and Derrick Marks combine for 34 PPG, which is about 47% of the team's offensive production. I believe this duo will post game numbers significantly above their season averages. CS simply does not have the guards to defend either of them. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. CS is an imperfect  0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games when their opponents make 38% to 45% of their 3 pointers in a game over the last 3 seasons;  6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) when they grab 34 to 39 rebounds in a game over the last 2 seasons. Boise ranks 12th best in the nation averaging only 10.1 turnovers-per-game. CS is just  4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) playing against excellent ball handling teams committing

25* graded play 'UNDER' Colorado State/ Boise State in Mountain West Conference action set to start at 11:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 130 points will be scored in this matchup. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Boise State is a perfect 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons; 12-3 UNDER (+8.7 Units) in home games after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games since 1997; 41-24 UNDER (+14.6 Units) in home games after a game where they covered the spread since 1997. Boise has won and covered four striaght games with the 'over' winning the cash in three of those four games. In thier last game, they shot 58% from the field in a 77-68 win over Air Force. In the second to last game they defeated San Jose State 86-36 and shot 52%. Take the 'UNDER' 

25* graded play on San Diego State as they host Fresno State in Mountain West Conference action set to start at 9:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that SDST will win this game by 16 or more points. This is real mismatch, especially with the SDST defensive presence that will completely shut down a very weak Fresno State offense. SDST ranks third in the nation in scoring defense and 13th in opponent assist-to-turnover ratio. Fresno ranks 280th in scoring offense and 266th posting a 0.816 assist-to-turnover ratio. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. SDST is a solid 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when they allow 54 or less points in a game over the last 3 seasons; 114-47 ATS (+62.3 Units) when they allow 60 or less points in a game since 1997; 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) when they grab more than 45 rebounds in a game since 1997. Take San Diego State.

25* graded play 'UNDER' Florida/Alabama in SEC Conference action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 120 points will be scored in this matchup. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Alabama is a solid 21-8 UNDER (+12.2 Units) facing good ball handling teams committing

25* graded play on Virginia Tech as they host Pittsburgh in ACC Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that V-Tech will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I like making this a combination wager comprised of a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Pittsburgh is just  2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons;  30-54 ATS (-29.4 Units) when their opponents make 38% to 45% of their 3 pointers in a game since 1997; 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when they score 61 to 66 points in a game over the last 2 seasons;  6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when they commit 10 to 13 turnovers in a game over the last 2 seasons. Take Virginia Tech.

25* graded play 'UNDER' West Virginia/Kansas State in Big-12 Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 132 points will be scored in this game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Kansas State is a solid  21-9 UNDER (+11.1 Units) in home games when they attempt 4 to 9 more free throws than opponents in a game since 1997;  18-5 UNDER (+12.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons;  13-4 UNDER (+8.6 Units) after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Huggins is 24-10 UNDER (+13.0 Units) after scoring 85 points or more as the coach of West Virginia. Weber is 24-8 UNDER (+15.2 Units) after covering 4 of their last 5 against the spread in all games he has coached since 1997. Take the 'under'.

25* graded play on Wisconsin - Milwaukee as they take on Valparaiso in Horizon League action set to start at 8:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Wisconsin-Milwaukee will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-8 ATS mark good for 80% winners since 2009.  Play against a home team (VALPARAISO) after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread and is a top-level team winning >= 80% of their games and is now playing a struggling team winning between 20% to 40% of their games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. WM is a solid 43-25 ATS (+15.5 Units) in road games when they attempt 14 to 18 free throws in a game since 1997; 59-34 ATS (+21.6 Units) when they make 72% to 78% of their free throws in a game since 1997. Further, they are supported by a valid 'power' trend noting they are 35-17 ATS (+16.3 Units) in road games facing teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game since 1997. Take Wisconsin - Milwaukee. 

25* graded play on Detroit as they host Wright State in Horizon Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Detroit will win this game by more than 6 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-126 ATS mark for 70.4% winners since 2008. Play against any team (WRIGHT ST) after going under the total by more than six points in four consecutive games and with a winning percentage of between 45 and 55% on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Wright State is just 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games when they grab four to nine fewer rebounds than their opponents in a game over the last two seasons; 42-25 ATS (+14.5 Units) when they make 72% to 78% of their free throws in a game since 1997. Detroit is coming off a 70-66 loss at Cleveland State, but covered as seven point dogs. They shot just 37% form the floor. They last shot under 40% in a 79-55 loss at Wisconsin - Green Bay. In the next game, they shot 56% from the floor and won SU and ATS 70-61 at Youngstown State. I expect a very similar above team average performance in this matchup. Take Detroit. 

25* graded play 'UNDER' Cleveland State/Oakland in Horizon League action set to start at 7:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 132 points will be scored in this game.  The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cleveland State is just  11-3 'UNDER' (+7.7 Units) when they attempt 54 to 62 shots in a game over the last three seasons; 9-2 UNDER (+6.8 Units) when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons. Further, they are a solid money making 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) when facing good shooting teams making >=45% of their shots over the last two seasons; 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) facing good shooting teams making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games over the last two seasons. CS runs a mostly three-guard set. Their fourth guard is Andre Yates, who is the team leader in steals (1.80). He is OUT for tonight's game as is Forward Marlin Mason (25 minutes, 8.1 PPG, and 4.6 RPG). That's 52 minutes of playing time that will need to be met by the bench. I don't see any combination of bench players being able to match their contribution. I see this game as a much lower style game and with shooting percentages by both teams under their team averages. Take the 'UNDER'. 

25* graded play on Belmont as they take on TN State in Ohio Valley Conference action set to start at 6:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Belmont will win this gam,e by 15 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 59-23 ATS mark for 72% winners since 1997. Play against home underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (TENNESSEE ST) that is a struggling team outscored by their opponents by 8+ points/game and after a combined score of 155 points or more. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. TN State is just  11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in home games when they make 64% to 71% of their free throws in a game since 1997;  12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games since 1997; 3-16 ATS (-14.6 Units) in home games after 2 straight games where they had 5 or less steals since 1997. Belmont is led by a very strong guard combination in Chamberlain and Bradshaw. Chamberlain has team highs in minutes (33), rebounds (7), assists (6), and steals (2). Bradshaw is the scorer averaging 20 PPG and is very quick with a great pull up jumper. TN State just does not have the athleticism to compete against Belmont and I fully expect Belmont to cover quite easily. 

25* graded play on Notre Dame as they take on NC State in ACC action set to start at 6:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that ND will win this game by more than 4 points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. ND is a solid 82-40 ATS (+38.0 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game since 1997; NC State is a money burning 42-80 ATS (-46.0 Units) when their opponents make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game since 1997;  34-60 ATS (-32.0 Units) when their opponents make 38% to 45% of their 3 pointers in a game since 1997;  25-52 ATS (-32.2 Units) when they allow 75 to 80 points in a game since 1997. ND is a near-perfect  9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games facing excellent teams making >=45% with a defense of

25* graded play on Pittsburgh as they host Louisville in ACC Conference action set to start at 4:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will lose this gam,e by fewer than 6 points. I would add a 2.5* play using the money to the 25* play using the line. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Louisville is a money burning 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when they commit around the same number of turnovers as opponent over the last two seasons. Pittsburgh is a solid  64-39 ATS (+21.1 Units) when their opponents make 23% to 30% of their 3 pointers in a game since 1997. Louisville has been a money burning  2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season; 0-26 ATS (-18.6 Units) off an upset loss as a home favorite since 1997; 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) after playing a home game this season. Take Pittsburgh.

50* graded play on the California as they host Arizona in PAC-12 Conference basketball action set to start at 10:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Cal will lose this game by fewer than 10 points.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-7 ATS mark good for 82.1% winners since 1997. Home teams as an underdog or pick (CALIFORNIA) good defensive team allowing

25* graded play on the Marquette as they take on Georgetown in Big East Conference action set to start at 2:20 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Marquette will win this game by three or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-18 ATS mark good for 72% winners since 2009.  Play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GEORGETOWN) after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Marquette is a solid money making 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they force 14 to 18 turnovers in a game this season; 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) when they commit 10 to 13 turnovers in a game over the last 3 seasons. Take Marquette. 

25* graded play on Air Force as they take on Boise State in Mountain West Conference action set to start at 2:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Air Force will lose this game by fewer than 6 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-8 ATS mark for 77% winners since 1997.  Play on home teams as an underdog or pick (AIR FORCE) and is a very good shooting team making >=48% on the season and after a game allowing a shooting percentage of 55% or higher. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Air Force is a solid  28-10 ATS (+17.0 Units) in home games when they score 67 to 74 points in a game since 1997. Boise has been a money burning  9-27 ATS (-20.7 Units) in road games facing good 3 point shooting teams making >=37% of their attempts after 15+ games since 1997. Take Air Force.

25* graded play on TCU as they take on West Virginia in Big-12 Conference action set to start at 2:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that TCU will lose this game by fewer than 8 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 128-68 ATS mark for 65% winners since 2009. Play against any team (W VIRGINIA) that is a hot team having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, a top-level team winning >= 80% of their games and now playing a good team winning between 60% to 80% of their games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. TCU is a solid  46-16 ATS (+28.4 Units) when their opponents make 34% to 39% of their shots in a game since 1997. Huggins is a money burning Huggins is 27-47 ATS (-24.7 Units) facing 'low' pressure defensive teams forcing

25* graded play on California as they host Arizona State in PAC-12 Conference action set to start at 11:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that California will win this game by three or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 119-65 using the money line and has made 50 units/unit wagered since 2009. Play on home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (CALIFORNIA) that are excellent ball handling team committing

25* graded play on UCLA as they take on Oregon State in PAC-12 Conference action set to start at 10:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UCLA will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 67-30 ATS mark for 73% winners since 2009. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OREGON ST) in a game involving two average shooting teams making between 42.5 and 45% after 15+ games and after a game where a team made 50% of their three point shots or better. UCLA is a solid 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons. Further, the Bruins are  14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons; 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons; 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) after 2 consecutive conference games over the last 2 seasons. Forward Tony Parker is listed as questionable for tonight's game. He is a starter that plays 25 minutes with 11 PG and 7 boards. The line already reflects this fact and I am quite confident of this play as it stands. UCLA is led by very strong guard play featuring Bryce Alford, who has team highs in minutes (36 and scoring (16), and assists (6). Take UCLA.

25* graded play on Fordham as they take on George Washington in A-10 Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Fordham will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. Given the favorable projections I like making this a combination wager comprised of a 22* play using the line and a 3* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play are the following game situations. GW is a money burning  1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when facing weak shooting teams making

25* graded play on Boise State as they take on San Jose State in Mountain West Conference action set to start at 10:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Boise State will win this game by at least 25 points. SJST is arguably one of the worst teams in the nation with a 2-16 record. Those two wins were against Bethesda University and St. Katherine - with all due respect to those programs. The following game situations match my research projections for the outcome of this game. SJST is just 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when they score 54 or less points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Boise State is a solid 75-45 ATS (+25.5 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game since 1997;  54-24 ATS (+27.6 Units) when their opponents make 34% to 39% of their shots in a game since 1997; 48-28 ATS (+17.2 Units) when their opponents make 23% to 30% of their 3 pointers in a game since 1997;  33-11 ATS (+20.9 Units) when they allow 54 or less points in a game since 1997. Take Boise State. 

25* graded play on Illinois as they take on Purdue in Big Ten Conference action set to start at 9:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Illinois will win this game by 7 or more points. The following game situations match my research projections for the outcome of this game. Purdue is  20-50 ATS (-35.0 Units) in road games when their opponents make 38% to 45% of their three pointers in a game since 1997; 21-52 ATS (-36.2 Units) when they allow 75 to 80 points in a game since 1997. Illinois is a solid 59-24 ATS (+32.6 Units) when they score 75 to 80 points in a game since 1997; 75-42 ATS (+28.8 Units) when they make 38% to 45% of their three point attempts in a game since 1997. Rayvonte Rice is out for Illinois, but they have a very deep team and bench to step up well into that loss. Guard Malcom Hill has had a consistent season playing 28.4 minutes, scoring 13.6 PPG, 5.53 boards,, and 1.05 assists. Ahmad Starks is the team leader in assists and his playing time will be increasing while Hill is out. Despite the loss of Hill, Illinois has plenty of fire power at both ends of the court to win this game going away. 

25* graded play on Missouri State as they take on Wichita State in Missouri Valley Conference action set to start at 8:05 PM ET.   The simulator shows a high probability that MS will lose this game by fewer than 12 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 100-58 ATS mark since 2009. Play on any team in a game involving a pair of slow-down teams  attempting

25* graded play on Northern Illinois as they take on Akron in MAC Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Akron will lose this game by fewer than four points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given the favorable projection for the SU win, I like making this a combination wager using a 21* play on the line and a 4* play on the money line. The following game situations match my research projections for the outcome of this game. Akron is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when they attempt 14 to 18 free throws in a game over the last 2 seasons;  2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when they make 64% to 71% of their free throws in a game over the last 2 seasons. Further, Northern Illinois is a solid 22-6 ATS (+15.4 Units) versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games since 1997. Akron is an imperfect  0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Take Northern Illinois. 

25* graded play on North Carolina as they take on Wake Forest in ACC Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. Since this a 7-pack, all reports will be abbreviated from normal editions. The simulator shows a high probability that UNC will win this game by more than 10 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 75-35 ATS mark for 68.2% winners since 1997. Play on a favorite after failing to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games and is now facing an opponent after successfully covering the spread in four or more consecutive games. The following game situations match my research projections for the outcome of this game. UNC is a solid 22-6 ATS (+15.4 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons; 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when they attempt 19 to 24 free throws in a game over the last 3 seasons; 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) when they force 14 to 18 turnovers in a game over the last 3 seasons. Wake Forest is a money burning  8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) when their opponents make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons; 24-55 ATS (-36.5 Units) when they make 23% to 30% of their three point attempts in a game since 1997. Further, UNC is a solid 28-11 ATS (+15.9 Units) in road games versus good foul drawing teams - attempting >=25 free throws/game after 15+ games since 1997. Take North Carolina.

25* graded play on Tulsa as they take on Memphis in American Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Tulsa will win this game by 7 or more points. The following game situations match my research projections for the outcome of this game. Tulsa is a solid 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they attempt 4 to 9 more free throws than opponents in a game over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they allow 61 to 66 points in a game over the last 2 seasons; 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when they commit 3 to 7 fewer turnovers than their opponents over the last 2 seasons. Further, looking at the strength trend situations we see that Tulsa is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) facing good defensive teams allowing a shooting percentage defense of

25* graded play on St. Peters as they take on Quinnipiac in MAAC Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that St. Peters will win this game by more than five points. The following game situations match my research projections for the outcome of this game. St. Peters is a solid 34-13 ATS (+19.7 Units) when their opponents make 23% to 30% of their 3 pointers in a game since 1997; 54-21 ATS (+30.9 Units) when their opponents make 34% to 39% of their shots in a game since 1997. Quinnipiac is a money burning  3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) after having won 3 of their last 4 games since 1997. St. Peters does not have a strong offensive presence, but their defense is going to present big problems for the Quinnipiac offense. STP averages nearly 7 steals per game and four players are averaging at least one steal per game. The STP defensive intensity will be a big reason why they win this game easily. Take St. Peters. 

25* graded play on San Diego State as they take on Air Force in Mountain West Conference action set to start at 9:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that SDST will win this game by 12 or more points. This is a mismatch across the board, especially with SDST scoring defense ranking third-best in the nation. They also rank 15th in assist allowed per game and ninth posting a 0.64 opponent assists-to-turnover ratio. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 104-52 ATS mark for 67% winners since 2009. Play against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (AIR FORCE) revenging a same season loss vs opponent and is off 3 straight losses against conference rivals. I see minimal chance that Air force will score 60 or more points. In past games Air Force is just 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when they score 60 or less points in a game over the last two seasons. SDST is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after two straight games being called for 5+ less fouls than opponent over the last 2 seasons. Take San Diego State.

25* graded play on the Iowa as they take on Wisconsin in Big Ten Conference action set to start at 9:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Iowa will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a 24* play using the line and a 3* using he money line for a total risk of 27* units. This maximizes the return on investment and captures the the opportunity for the straight up win. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 75-37 ATS mark for 67% winners since 2009. Play against home teams as a favorite or pick (WISCONSIN) that are average 3-point shooting teams hitting between 32 and 36.5% and is now facing an average 3-point shooting defense allowing between 32 and 36.5%; is a dominant rebounding team posting a differential of >=+6 reb/game and facing  a good rebounding team posting a differential between +3 to +6 reb/game. Iowa is a solid 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons; Wisconsin has been a money burning 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games when playing against a good team winning between 60% to 80% of their games over the last three seasons. Iowa is a solid  21-5 ATS (+15.5 Units) after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in two straight games over the last three seasons. Further, Wisconsin is just  2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games after playing 5 consecutive games as favorite over the last 2 seasons. Take Iowa.

25* graded play on Michigan as they take on Rutgers in NCAAM Big Ten Conference action set to start at 6:30 PM ET.   The simulator shows a high probability that Michigan will win this game. Given the favorable projections, I like making this a combination wager using a 21* play on the line and a 4* using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 87-48 mark for 65% winners since 1997. Play on an underdogs in January (MICHIGAN) after being beaten by the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games. The following game situations match the projections I have researched and simulated for this game. Michigan is a solid 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they allow 60 or less points in a game over the last two seasons. Rutgers is a money burning 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games when they make 31% to 37% of their three point attempts in a game over the last three seasons; 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when they score 60 or less points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Take Michigan.

25* graded play on Texas State as they take on TX-Arlington in Sun Belt Conference action set to start at 8:15 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Texas State (TS) will win this game. Given that they are lined as five point dogs, I like adding a 3* play using the money line to the 25* play using the line to fully capture the return on investment (ROI) presented by this opportunity.  Supporting this graded play is a game situation matching the projections for this game. Texas-Arlington (TA) is just 1-7 against the money line (-8.3 Units) in home games when they commit 14 to 18 turnovers in a game over the last 3 seasons. Further, they have been a money burning 4-17 against the money line (-15.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997. Simply, Texas State has a vastly better defensive presence and it will be that defense that will send them to a big road win. TS is also led by a solid guard in D.J. Brown, who has team highs in minutes (33) and assists (3). He is a strong fundamentally sound all around player. When paired with fellow guard Wesley Davis, their defensive pressure is magnified and they do produce steals and force difficult shots. Based on the research, I simply see TS being the better team and the one that ought to be favored. Take Texas State.

25* graded play on Southern Illinois as they take on Loyola - Illinois in Missouri Valley Conference action set to start at 6:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that SIU will win this game by three or more points. The Saluki's guard Anthony Beane, Jr. will have a huge day. He is the team leader in minutes (34), points (16.1), and steals (1.4) and has an excellent matchup where I expect him to score more than 20 points. Forward, Jordan Caroline is physical and aggressive player where he is in position to post a double-double. I also see Saluki's as the vastly better rebounding team and this will keep Loyola to a minimum of multi-shot possessions. Salukis have been a solid money making 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when they grab 34 to 39 rebounds in a game over the last 2 seasons. Further, they are 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons. Take Southern Illinois.

25* graded play on Air Force as they take on Utah State in Mountain West Conference action set to start at 6:00 PM ET.   The simulator shows a high probability that Air Force will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at an upset win. I like adding a 2.5* amount playing the money line to the 25* play on the line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 60-26 ATS mark for 70% winners since 2008. Play on a road team (AIR FORCE) in a game involving two slow-down teams attempting

25* graded play on Kentucky as they take on Alabama in SEC Conference action set to start at 4:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Kentucky will win this game by 10 or more points. The following game situations match my expectations for the outcome of this game. Kentucky is a solid 74-29 ATS (+42.1 Units) when their opponents make 23% to 30% of their 3 pointers in a game since 1997; 43-22 ATS (+18.8 Units) in road games when they allow 61 to 66 points in a game since 1997; Alabama is just  3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when they make 23% to 30% of their three point attempts in a game over the last 3 seasons;  5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when they grab 4 to 9 fewer rebounds than their opponents in a game over the last 3 seasons. Kentucky is undefeated and ranked No.1 in the nation. They have incredible depth and rank best in the nation in scoring defense (50 PPG), best in assists allowed (7), and best posting a 0.445 assist-turnover ratio. Alabama is a solid team, but even playing at home is not going to be near enough to overcome all of Kentucky's strengths. Kentucky has nine players getting at least 20 minutes on the court. Alabama has just five with Levi Randolph playing a team-high 34 minutes. He is an elite player, but I don't see him holding up against the Kentucky depth. Take Kentucky. 

25* graded play on Memphis as they take on Central Florida in American Conference action set to start at 2:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Memphis will win this game by 15 or more points. UCF is a solid 3-point shooting team ranking 54th and hitting 37.3% of those shots from beyond the arc. However, we note that Memphis is an even better  42-15 ATS (+25.5 Units) facing good 3 point shooting teams making >=37% of their attempts after 15+ games since 1997. Memphis is off an impressive 63-50 win over Cincinnati and covered in a pick-em line. They are also 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) after allowing 50 points or less since 1997. Memphis is led by Forward Austin Nichols, who has team highs in minutes (29), scoring (13.3 PPG), rebounds (6.1), and blocks (3.50. He will have matchups in his favor where I believe he will exceed these season averages by a significant amount. Take Memphis.  

25* graded play on Boston College as they take on Virginia in ACC Conference action set to start at 2:00 PM ET.   The simulator shows a high probability that BC will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. BC is playing progressively better with each passing week. They have covered three games straight and in their last game they upset a good Harvard team 64-57 installed as three point home dogs.  BC is led by Olivier Hanian, who has team highs in minutes (37), points (16.4), assists (4.5), and steals (1.9). Aaron Brown compliments him very well playing the forward position and is averaging 14.4 PPG. Dennis Clifford is the center and leads the team in boards with six per game. He is 7-1 and 250 pounds and will be a rim protector in this game making it far more difficult for UVA to get points in the paint. UVA is undefeated, but their perimeter shooting, especially from beyond the arc is a true weakness. UVA ranks 219th making just 5.8 3's and 320th attempting just 14 3's per game. Take Boston College. 

25* graded play on Miami (FLA) as they take on Notre Dame in  set to start at 2:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Miami (FLA) will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game. I like adding a 2.5* play using the money line to the 25* play using the line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 60-92 mark for just 40% winners using the Money Line, but has made a whopping 69 units/unit wagered averaging a +300 DOG play since 1997.  Play on road underdogs using the money line (MIAMI) off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of six points or more and is facing an opponent off a road win against a conference rival. So, again, this demonstrates that when it comes to money line plays, the win % is near meaningless and units won/unit wagered means everything. I expect Miami to score between 67 and 74 points. They are a perfect  9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) when they score 67 to 74 points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Notre Dame is just  1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in home games when playing against a good team winning between 60% to 80% of their games in each of the last 2 seasons. Take Miami (FLA). 

35* graded play on the Western Illinois as they take on North Dakota State in Summit Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that WIU will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. The pace of play is going to help WIU significantly and will be a dominant reason they cover ATS. WIU will launch and make more 3's in this game and the projection sees WIU shooting near 40% for the game. Both teams play a methodical slow paced style of game. I also expect WIU to get to the charity stripe at least 4 more times than NDST and this will be another reason the game stays in single digits. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-17 ATS mark for 72% winners since 1997.  Play on underdogs of 10 or more points (W ILLINOIS) - in a game involving two poor offensive teams (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 60 points or less. I also see WIU getting between 34 and 39 rebounds. In past games, they are a strong 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they grab 34 to 39 rebounds in a game over the last 3 seasons. Further, NDST is just 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) when playing against a marginal losing team winning between 40% to 49% of their games and after 15 or more games since 1997. I also see WIU guard Garret Covington having a big game. he is the team-leader in minutes (32) and points (16)NDST is led by their own elite guard Lawrence Alexander, who plays nearly minute of games (39) and averages 17.8 PPG. The starting guards though for WIU average nearly three more assist per game than NDST. The ball movement will be a major factor for WIU that will generate strong shooting opportunities and wide-open 3's. Take Western Illinois. 

35* graded play on the Wisconsin Badgers as they take on the Nebraska Cornhuskers in Big Ten Conference action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Wisconsin will win this game by 17 or more points. The following game situations match my projections for the outcome of this game. Nebraska is an imperfect  0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when their opponents make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons;  0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games when they commit 3 to 7 more turnovers than their opponents over the last 3 seasons; Wisconsin is a solid 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons;  10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when they make 31% to 37% of their three point attempts in a game over the last 2 seasons; 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they allow 60 or less points in a game this season; 52-16 ATS (+34.4 Units) when they score 75 to 80 points in a game since 1997. Nebraska is a weak team and they face a very tough Wisconsin defense that ranks 7th in the nation in scoring defense, fourth in assist-per game allowed, and second posting a 0.399 assist/FG made ratio. Nebraska ranks 294th getting just 10.4 assists per game and this lack of solid ball movement and distribution plays right into the teeth of the Wisconsin defense. Wisconsin is well managed offense that ranks third best posting a 1.567 assist-to-turnover ratio and best committing just 8.3 turnovers per game. Nebraska defense ranks 207th forcing opponents into just 6.4 turnovers per game. Take Wisconsin.

25* graded play on San Diego State as they take on Wyoming in Mountain West Conference action set to start at 11:00 PM ET. Wyoming enters this fray ranked 25th in the nation, but find themselves favored by a point.  SDST is a solid team worthy to be in the top-25, if they win this game. The simulator shows a high probability that SDST will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-12 ATS mark for 76% winners since 2008.  Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN DIEGO ST) after allowing 60 points or less two straight games and is now facing an opponent after scoring 65 points or less three straight games. SDST is a perfect  6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after game where they allowed a shooting percentage of 33% or less over the last two seasons. In that last game SDST held New Mexico to 30% shooting (14-for-47) in a 56-42 win and easily covering the -8 1/2 point favorite line. I fully expect a similar performance tonight. Take San Diego State. 

25* graded play on Georgia as they take on Vanderbilt in SEC Conference action set to start at 9:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Georgia will win this game. I like playing this game straight using the line and not to consider a combination wager consisting of line and money line wagers. The return on wager (investment ROI) is just not validated with a line less than 3 points. Vanderbilt plays a slower style game ranking 332nd in the nation attempting 49 shots per game. They do execute their offense at a very high level ranking 6th in shooting percentage at 50%. Yet, Georgia has done very well in these matchups noting they are 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) facing slow-down teams averaging 53 or less shots/game after 15+ games in seasons completed since 1997 and a perfect 6-0 ATS over the last three seasons. Georgia is a very strong rebounding team ranking 5th averaging 27 defensive boards per game. Georgia is a solid 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) after two straight games giving up nine or less offensive rebounds over the last three seasons. Georgia will do a great job rebounding the ball off missed shots and will minimize Vanderbilt's multi-shot possessions. I expect Forward Marcus Thornton to exceed his scoring average (13.6 PPG) on the offensive end and to dominate the boards on the defensive end. Take Georgia.

25* graded play on Colorado State as they take on Nevada in Mountain West Conference action set to start at 9:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Colorado state will win this game by 14 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 76-37 ATS mark for 67% winners since 2008. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (COLORADO ST) and is a solid shooting team making between 45 and 47.5% and is now facing an excellent defensive team allowing

25* graded play on Rutgers as they take on Maryland in Big Ten Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Rutgers will lose this game by fewer than 12 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-10 ATS mark for 76% winners since 1997. Play on an underdog (RUTGERS) off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 12 points or more and playing on Wednesday. The day of the week is important as it is the second largest slate of games in NCAA basketball next to Saturday. The majority of schools play their games on Wednesday and Saturday. In addition, Maryland is just 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points over the last 2 seasons. Rutgers is a near-perfect  8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after 2 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. I am not going to tell you that Rutgers is a better team certainly. I do believe though Rutgers can make it a competitive game and I look for their floor leader guard Myles Mack to have a big night. I like him against Maryland's guards in Melo Trimble and Dezmine Wells. Maryland plays three guards and two forwards for the majority of their games. They will also go quite small and quick with four guard units. I still see Rutgers being able to withstand these smaller units and use their size to offset that advantage. Take Rutgers.

25* graded play on Northeastern as they take on Hofstra in Colonial Athletic Association action set to start at 7:00 PM ET.   The simulator shows a high probability that NE will win this game by 6 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 163-101 ATS since 2008. Play on a favorite (NORTHEASTERN) after scoring 60 points or less and with all five starters returning from last season. Hofstra runs a high powered type of offense, but is weak on the defensive end. NE is a much more balanced team and with 5 starters returning have a vastly better court chemistry. NE is led by forward Scott Eatherton who has team highs in points (15.4) and rebounds (7.4). I really like the matchups he will enjoy tonight and expect him exceed his season averages in these two categories. YOu will also see a size advantage for NE over Hofstra, which will serve to minimize  Hofstra's multi-shot possessions. Take Northeastern. 

25* graded play on Minnesota as they take on Iowa in a Big Ten Conference matchup set to start at 9:00 PM ET. I strongly believe that the Minnesota offense will have a big night and execute at a high level. The reason is quite simple. Minnesota is an excellent ball movement team ranking 7th in the nation averaging 17.4 assists per game. Iowa's defense has struggled agains crisp ball movement and distribution ranking 159th allowing 12.1 assist per game. Iowa ranks 75th posting a 0.826 assist-to-turnover ratio. Minnesota has an excellent point guard in Deandre Mathieu, who has team highs in minutes (30), assists (5.5), and steals (2.47). Situationally, Iowa finds itself in a difficult spot noting they are just 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) in road games after 2 straight games with 12 or less assists since 1997; 20-39 ATS (-22.9 Units) off an upset loss as a favorite since 1997. Iowa last lost at Michigan 62-57 and were installed as 3-point favorites. These types of losses can be difficult for any team to overcome and I believe that Minnesota will have any easy time of this matchup and get their first conference win. Take Minnesota. 

25* graded play on New Mexico as they take on Utah State in NCAAM basketball action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-12 ATS MARK GOOD FOR 76% WINNERS SINCE 2009. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW MEXICO) after allowing 60 points or less 2 straight games and is now facing an opponent after scoring 65 points or less 3 straight games. The following game situations match the projections I see for this game. New Mexico is a solid 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when they allow 60 or less points in a game over the last 2 seasons; 56-28 ATS (+25.2 Units) when they allow 55 to 60 points in a game since 1997; 65-23 ATS (+39.7 Units) when they grab 10+ more rebounds than their opponents in a game since 1997. Utah State is a money burning 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) when they score 60 or less points in a game over the last 3 seasons;  22-43 ATS (-25.3 Units) when they score 55 to 60 points in a game since 1997. Utah State is just 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) facing good defensive teams allowing

25* graded play on West Virginia as they host Iowa State in BIG-12 Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that WVU will win this game by 5 or more points. The following game situations match my expectations for the outcome of this game. WVU is a solid 31-12 ATS (+17.8 Units) in home games when their opponents make 31% to 37% of their 3 pointers in a game since 1997; 46-23 ATS (+20.7 Units) when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds in a game since 1997; 51-26 ATS (+22.4 Units) in home games when they commit 10 to 13 turnovers in a game since 1997. WVU is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) facing elite teams outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game this season; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) facing strong good ball handling teams committing

25* graded play on Notre Dame as they take on Virginia in NCAAM basketball action set to start at 6:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Notre Dame will win this game. With the skinny line there is just no opportunity that validates a combination wager comprised on line and money line wagers. My experience is to make this a straight play and get the couple of points. The following game situations match my expectations for the outcome of this game.  Notre Dame is a near-perfect 8-1 against the money line (+12.3 Units) when they make 38% to 45% of their three point attempts in a game over the last 3 seasons; 6-1 against the money line (+6.1 Units) when they grab 8 or less offensive rebounds in a game this season. UVA is a weak  3-9 against the money line (-8.8 Units) when their opponents make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons;  0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when their opponents make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons. Situationally, Notre Dame is 10-2 ATS in home games off a close road win by 3 points or less since 1997. Brey is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 points or more as the coach of Notre Dame.

25* graded play on the Monmouth as they host Quinnipiac in MAAC action set to start at 7:00 PM ET.  Based on the SIM projections and the body of research I have studied, I strongly believe Monmouth will win this game by 7 or more points. Further, the following game condition matches my expectations and shows that Monmouth is a solid 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons. Zaid Hurst is the single most important player for Qinnipiac. He has team-highs in minutes (37) and scoring (19.8). There is a vast drop-off in productivity from the remainder of the roster. Monmouth is far more well-rounded and deep off the bench. They are led by a pair of guards in Justin Robinson and Deon Jones, who very good court chemistry. No one on the team plays more than 30 minutes and the more frequent substitutions keep the starters fresh for the last 10 minutes of games. This will prove to be the difference as Hurst will likely see action in all but perhaps 2 minutes. I also believe you will see that Monmouth is the faster and quicker team, especially on defense. Take Monmouth.

25* graded play on Oakland as they take on Cleveland State in Horizon Conference action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Oakland will lose this game by fewer than 8 points. I also like adding a 1.5* play using the money line to take advantage of the possible SU upset win by Oakland. On the technical side, we see a situational power trend showing that Oakland is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival since 1997. Cleveland State is back-to-back wins shooting 57 and 59% respectively. It is highly unlike that any team can put together a series of extremely high shooting games (above 55%). In fact, we note that CS is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better since 1997. Oakland has a strong playing Center in Corey Petros, who is the team leader in rebounds and blocks. H has size at 6-10 and 255 pounds that will allow him to dominate the paint on offense and protect the rim on defense. CS likes to get out on the break periodically and the presence of Petros is going to limit those opportunities in transition. Moreover, CS is a perimeter based shooting team and loves the three. Here again, Petros is going to be able to snag long rebounding balls ogf of missed threes OR block out his man allowing his teammates to get the board. I see Oakland with a decided edge in rebounding that will minimize CS multi-shot possessions. This is a dominant key to Oakland pulling off the upset win. 

25* graded play on the Iowa Hawkeyes as they host Michigan State in a BIG Ten Conference matchup set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Iowa will win this game by 6 or more points. The following game situations match my expectations and projections for the outcome of this game. Iowa is a rock solid 14-4 ATS when they attempt 4 to 9 more free throws than opponents in a game over the last three seasons; 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds in a game over the last 2 seasons. In power rating matchups we see that MSU is an imperfect  0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when excellent free throw shooting teams making >=77% of their shots since 1997. Iowa is a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games when playing only their 2nd game in a week over the last 3 seasons; 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons; 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) after playing a game as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons. I like the fact that Iowa has the size and athleticism that matchers up extremely well against MSU. Iowa is led by Forward Aaron White, how has team highs in minutes (28), points (16.5), rebounds (7.4), and steals (1.7). He is not a one-man team, though and is well supported by an excellent bench. ost teams have two players that exceed 32 minutes in playing time. In this case we do see that no player is even close to that mark and this reflects just how deep the Iowa bench is this season. I do think you will see a slightly shorter bench with the majority of minutes being chewed up by eight players. Still, the depth keeps their starters very fresh over the course of a game with only a modest drop-off in production and efficiency. Take Iowa. 

25* graded play on Richmond as they take on George Mason in CAA action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Richmond will win this game by 9 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 74-35 ATS mark for 68% winners since 1997. Play on a favorite (RICHMOND) after failing to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games and is now facing an opponent after successfully covering the spread in four or more consecutive games. The following situations match my expectations for the outcome of this game. George Mason is a money burning 36-55 ATS (-24.5 Units) in road games when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game since 1997; 30-94 ATS (-73.4 Units) when they score 60 or less points in a game since 1997; 15-31 ATS (-19.1 Units) in road games when they score 55 to 60 points in a game since 1997; Richmond is a solid 116-50 ATS (+61.0 Units) when they allow 60 or less points in a game since 1997. In the major matchups, Richmond has the vastly better defense and after losing three games, I strongly believe the coaching will have them turn up the defensive intensity. Richmond is led by guard Kendall Anthony, who is the team leader in scoring adn rebounds. However, in each of the remaining major statistical categories, a single player is the team leader. This reflects how broad the talent actually is on the Richmond team. They have underperformed to date, but now the line has been over-corrected and offers a very cheap line for this play on Richmond. 

25* graded play on Cal Poly - SLO as they play Hawaii set to start at 11:59 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Cal Poly - SLO will win this game. I like making this a combination wager using a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. The following game situations match my expectations for the outcome of this game. CAL POLY-SLO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds in a game over the last 3 seasons. Hawaii has been a money burning  61-100 ATS (-49.0 Units) when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game since 1997. Hawaii guard Garrett Nevells is listed as probable with a hand injury, which brings into question how effective his ball handling will be throughout the game. Cal Poly will have a significant edge in size as Hawaii has a roster loaded with guards and just two forwards and no centers. I also see Cal Poly's scoring leader David Nwaba having a big night against many favorable matchups. Take Cal Poly - SLO

25* graded play on the Kansas State as they take on TCU in Big-12 Conference action set to start at 9:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that K-State will win this game by 7 or more points. The following game situations reinforce my expectations for the outcome of this game. K-State is a solid 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons; TCU is just 46-73 ATS (-34.3 Units) in slower paced games where they attempt 46 to 53 shots since 1997. K-State is also a solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons; 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing against a top-level team posting a win percentage of > 80% over the last 2 seasons; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games facing good defensive teams posting a shooting percentage defense of

25* graded play on the South Carolina Gamecocks as they take on the Florida Gators in SEC Conference basketball action set to start at 7:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that SC will win this game by 7 or more points. The following game situations match my expectations and stat projections for the outcome of this game. Florida is a solid 73-48 ATS (+20.2 Units) when they allow 61 to 66 points in a game since 1997; 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) when they force 14 to 18 turnovers in a game over the last 3 seasons; South Carolina is just 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in home games when they score 61 to 66 points in a game since 1997. Further Purdue is a money burning  18-42 ATS (-28.2 Units) at home when the line is +3 to -3 since 1997.  Gators a solid money making 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games since 1997. Take the Gators.

25* graded play on the Purdue Boilermakers as they take on the Wisconsin Badgers in Big Ten Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Purdue will lose this game by fewer than 15 points. Purdue has the offensive and favorable matchups to keep this game to single digits. They rank 36th in scoring offense (75 PPG), 19th in assists (16.3), and 18th offensive rebound % (37.1). Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 76-38 ATS mark for 67% winners since 1997. Play against any team (WISCONSIN) that is an average 3PT shooting team making between 32 to 36.5% and is now facing a weak 3PT defense allowing >=36.5% and in a game involving two dominant rebounding teams posting a differential of >=+6 rebounds/game.  Wisconsin is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games after playing 5 consecutive games as favorite over the last 2 seasons. Take Purdue. 

25* graded play on the Duquesne as they take on St. Josephs in A-10 Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Duquesne will win this game by 5 or more points. The following game situations match my expectations for the outcome of this game. STJ is a losing 23-51 ATS (-33.1 Units) when they make 23% to 30% of their three point attempts in a game since 1997. Duquesne is a solid 34-17 ATS (+15.3 Units) when they allow 61 to 66 points in a game since 1997; 41-19 ATS (+20.1 Units) when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds in a game since 1997. Duquesne is the vastly better offensive team led by a trio of scoring threats in guard Micah Mason, guard Derick Colter, and a third guard in Jordan Stevens. Yet these three are not pressured into scoring points and winning games as they have a well supporting cast of bench players. Conversely, STJ is led by one single player in Forward DeAndre Bembry, who is the team leader in minutes (38), scoring (16), rebounds (7), assists (3), and steals (2). I strongly believe that Duquesne has the depth to contain Bembry and force other STJ role players to make shots to compete. Take Duquesne. 

25* graded play on Virginia Tech as they take on Florida State in ACC Conference basketball action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that V-Tech will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. I would recommend adding a 1.5* amount using the money line if available. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 54-25 ATS mark for 69% winners since 2009. Play on a road team (VIRGINIA TECH) after 2 or more consecutive losses and in a game involving two marginal winning teams posting win percentages between 51% to 60%. The following game situations match the projections for the outcome of this game. V-Tech has been a long-term solid money making 60-35 ATS (+21.5 Units) in road games when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game since 1997; 65-34 ATS (+27.6 Units) when they make 38% to 45% of their three point attempts in a game since 1997;  55-28 ATS (+24.2 Units) when their opponents make 23% to 30% of their 3 pointers in a game since 1997. Further, we see a trend that does favor V-tech noting that FSU has been a money burning  5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games when facing solid teams outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 3 seasons;  2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games after allowing 65 points or less 4 straight games since 1997. Tech's leading rebounder Forward Joey van Zegeren has been suspended, BUT they have plenty of depth at that position to more than offset that loss in production. The Hokies are led by three solid playing guards in Bibbs (team highs in minutes and PPG0, Smith, and Wilson (team highs in assists and steals. I believe this trio matches up very well against FSU and will be the dominant reason the Hokies can make this a very closely contested game. Take Virginia Tech. 

25* graded play on the Iowa Hawkeyes as they take on Nebraska in NCAAM basketball action set to start at 9:00 PM ET.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a remarkable 26-4 ATS record for 87% winners since 2009. Play on home favorites of 10 or more points (IOWA) in a game involving two excellent defensive teams allowing

25* graded play on Air Force as they take on Nevada in NCAAM basketball action set to start at 6:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Air Force will win this game by more than 3 points. Supporting this graded play is a series of game conditions that match the projections for this game. Air Force is a very strong  51-16 ATS (+33.4 Units) when their opponents make 34% to 39% of their shots in a game since 1997;  10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when their opponents make 23% to 30% of their 3 pointers in a game over the last 3 seasons;  10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when they allow 60 or less points in a game over the last 3 seasons;  8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in games where both teams score 65 or less points over the last 2 seasons; Nevada is just  2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when they make 23% to 30% of their three point attempts in a game over the last 3 seasons; 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when they score 60 or less points in a game over the last 2 seasons; 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) when they score 55 to 60 points in a game since 1997. Further, Air Force has demonstrated that do perform well against slow paced defensive oriented teams like Nevada. They are a solid 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) facing very good defensive teams with a shooting percentage defense of

25* graded play on Rider as they take on Marist in NCAAM basketball action set to start at 7:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Rider will win this game by 8 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 131-72 ATS mark for 65% winners since 1997. Play on road teams as an favorite or pick (RIDER) after 3 or more consecutive wins, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing record team. The following game situations match my expectations for the outcome of this game. Rider is a very strong 16-1 ATS (+14.9 Units) when they allow 60 or less points in a game over the last 3 seasons; 40-8 ATS (+31.2 Units) when they allow 55 to 60 points in a game since 1997;  8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds in a game over the last 3 seasons. Marist is a horrid 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) when they score 60 or less points in a game over the last 2 seasons; 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) when they commit 14 to 18 turnovers in a game over the last 2 seasons. With all due respect Marist is a terrible team this season. They rank 321st in the nation in scoring offense, 333rd in assists-per-game, and 331st in total rebounds per game. On the defensive end it is not that much better as they rank 215th in scoring defense. 323rd in rebounds allowed, and 297th in assist per game. Now, Rider is not a juggernaut, but they are vastly better on both ends of the court than Marist. Take Rider.

25* graded play on Southern Mississippi as they take on LSU in a matchup set to start at 7:00 PM ET. I had CS-Bakersfield last night as a huge +16 point dog that shocked Cal in a SU win. This is a similar matchup, but like the CS-Bakersfield game, I did NOT call for the upset win. Nor will I for this game. However, I do strongly believe that Mississippi will keep this game to 12 or fewer points.  The simulator confirms this projection as well. SM is a solid  8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when their opponents make 31% to 37% of their 3 pointers in a game over the last two seasons. SM plays a very slow tempo style of game and their past results clearly show this fact. They are a solid 36-12 ATS (+22.8 Units) after a combined score of 125 points or less 2 straight games since 1997. Further, HC Sadler is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog in all games he has coached since 1997. LSU guard Josh Gray has missed the last two games due to an ankle injury and is listed as probable for tonight. Experience has shown that these types of injuries require lengthy periods of healing and I doubt he will be anywhere close to 100% for tonight's matchup. SM has strong guard play led by Matt Bingaya, who has team-highs in minutes (31.3), points (15.6), boards (6.10) and steals (1.30). He is supported by a nine man rotation. They play without a Center on the roster and will have 4 guards on the floor at times. In the half court set they do have the speed and fundamental team play to score points. They also use the clock to their advantage, whcih serves to work the ball for the best shot possible, and also to shorten the game. Guard Chip Armein will have an above average night and the two of them will be a dominant reason that SM keeps this game to single digits. Take Southern Mississippi. 

25* graded play on Cal State Bakersfield as they take on California in NCAAM basketball action set to start at 10:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that CSB will lose this game by fewer than 11 points. Cal is just  3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) facing good rebounding teams outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last 2 seasons. Cal uses December in preparation for the conference season and it shows in their  3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) in December games over the last three seasons. Further, they are a money burning 6-24 ATS (-20.4 Units) in home games after 2 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers since 1997. CSB runs nine deep and are led by strong guard play and ball distribution. Further, they are an oustanding rebounding team averaging 34 boards per game while playing a slower style tempo. Their Center Aly Ahmed will create defensive problems for Cal in the paint. I expect this game to be single digits throughout. Take Cal State Bakersfield. 

25* graded play on Kentucky as they take on Louisville in NCAAM basketball action set to start at 2:00 PM ET. A great marquee matchup, but certainly one that I think Kentucky will use as a statement game.  The simulator shows a high probability that they will win this game by 10 or more points. Louisville plays very good team defense and creates turnovers leading to fast break scoring opportunities. They simply use defense to generate offense to use an often used phrase. However, Kentucky, in my opinion, is the deepest team in the history of the NCAA running at least 9 deep. They will, as has been the case in previous games, use this depth to literally run a defense off the court. We always refer to a OL in football wearing down a defensive unit over the course of a game, which then opens up big time plays down field. The same can be said about Kentucky where there is always a fresh group of five players on the floor at all times. Neither team shoots threes particularly well, but Kentucky ranks 34th in the nation in shooting percentage as compared to Louisville's 118th. Kentucky has incredible length with their players and as good as Louisville's defense is, Kentucky's is vastly better. So, you get a reasonable spread and have the vastly better offensive and defensive team looking to make a statement. Take Kentucky. 

25* graded play 'UNDER' Wisconsin - Milwaukee (WM)/ Arkansas set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 140 points will be scored in this matchup. The following game situations match my expectations for the outcome of this game. Arkansas is a solid  22-10 UNDER (+11.0 Units) in home games when they attempt 4 to 9 more free throws than opponents in a game since 1997;  33-14 UNDER (+17.6 Units) when they allow 61 to 66 points in a game since 1997. WM is a solid 33-18 UNDER (+13.2 Units) in road games facing solid shooting teams making >=45% of their shots since 1997. WM head coach Jeter is 29-13 UNDER (+14.7 Units) in road games facing solid shooting teams making >=45% of their shots; Arkansas HC Anderson is a solid 21-11 UNDER (+8.9 Units) after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. Arkansas is off to a strong 8-2 start in large part due to their potent offense. Yet, their defense has been borderline awful in many games. They rank 248th in scoring defense, 215th in shooting percentage allowed, and 279th in FG made allowed. This is an opportunity against a WM team that struggles on the offensive end to tune up the defense. WM ranks a miserable 226th in scoring offense, 214th in assists per game, and 246th in assist-turnover ratio. I expect Arkansas to fully focused on the defensive end, slow the pace of the game knowing they are the superior team. Take the 'UNDER' 

25* graded play on Oklahoma State as they host Maryland in NCAAM basketball action set to start at 2:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that OKS will win this game by 11 or more points. Maryland has not played well against elite shooting teams. They are an imperfect  0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games facing excellent teams shooting >=45% with a defense of

25* graded play on Wake Forest as they take on Florida in NCAAM basketball action set to start at 5:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Wake Forest will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. This is a fantastic opportunity for Wake Forest and the matchup is solidly backed by precedence. Head Coach Manning is a near-perfect 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) facing teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season in all games he has coached since 1997; 31-13 ATS (+16.7 Units) facing solid ball handling teams committing

25* graded play on Illinois as they take on Missouri in NCAAM basketball action set to start at 2:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Illinois will win this game by 15 or more points. The following game situations match my expectations for the outcome of this game.  Missouri is an imperfect  0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games in games attempting around the same number of free throws (+-3) as opponents over the last 2 seasons; Illinois is a solid 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when they allow 61 to 66 points in a game over the last 2 seasons; 59-24 ATS (+32.6 Units) when they score 75 to 80 points in a game since 1997. Missouri has just not played well against elite/superior opponents. They are a miserable 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) facing solid teams outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season; 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. Take Illinois.

25* graded play on Fairfield as they take on Belmont in NCAAM basketball action set to start at 1:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that  Fairfield will win this game. The line is -1 1/2 and as a result the ML offers a strong opportunity. I would play one or the other and not the usual combination wager involving both. The return on investment (ROI) is diminished vastly with the combination wager. Of note for this game is that Belmont guard Craig Bradshaw is listed as questionable with a calf injury. Certainly his minutes will be limited if he even takes the court. He averages 29 minutes and is the leading scorer at 21.3 PPG for Belmont. So, this is a significant development. Fairfield HC Johnson is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread. Take Fairfield. 

25* graded play on the Western Kentucky as they host Louisville in NCAAM basketball action set to start at 12:00 Noon ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that WKU will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. The following game situations support the cover and the possibility of a significant upset. WKU is a solid 6-1 against the money line (+8.1 Units) when their opponents make 31% to 37% of their 3 pointers in a game over the last 2 seasons; 75-38 against the money line (+30.8 Units) when they make 64% to 71% of their free throws in a game since 1997. Western Kentucky has played a similar schedule in terms of SOS. This is a step up in competition, but certainly one I strongly believe they will handle very well. When stepping up in competition they have been a solid  9-2 against the money line (+9.4 Units) after playing a game as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. WKU has excellent guard play led by Harrell, who leads the team in minutes (31.8), scoring (17.00), and rebounds (10.4). The guard play that includes Blackshear, Rozier, and Jones is why I see this being a single digit game. Take Western Kentucky. 

25* graded play on St. Mary's as they take on St. Johns in NCAAM basketball action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that STM will lose this game by fewer than 9 points. I expect a closely contested game possibly coming down a last second shot for either team to win. Given this projection, I like adding a 3* play using the money line to the 25* play using the line. St. Johns is just  2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) after a game committing eight or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. St. Mary's is a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) off a home loss by 3 points or less since 1997. Further, STJ's Lavin is just 3-19 ATS (-17.9 Units) after a game committing 8 or less turnovers. The STM guard play led by Naar and Bright matchup extremely well against St. Johns counterparts Harrison, Greene, Pointer, and Jordan. St. Johns has played a ton of guard play this season often times with three or even four of them playing together. However, St. Mary's leading scorer is a forward in Waldow, who is averaging 22 PPG on the season and 10.8 boards. His size and athleticism is going present a very difficult challenge for St. Johns to offset. The majority of the minutes played for St. Johns have been 7 players with six of them Guards and one Center. Their best F is playing just 8 minutes a game (Christian Jones). Take St. Mary's 

25* graded play on Dartmouth as they take on Northern Illinois in NCAAM basketball action set to start at 7:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Dartmouth will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I like adding a 3* play using the money to the 25* line play for a total risk of 28*. The following game situations match my expectations for the outcome of this game. NIU is just 50-107 ATS (-67.7 Units) when they score 60 or less points in a game since 1997;  28-46 ATS (-22.6 Units) when they score 55 to 60 points in a game since 1997. Dartmouth is a solid money making  35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) when their opponents make 34% to 39% of their shots in a game since 1997; 58-19 ATS (+37.1 Units) when they allow 60 or less points in a game since 1997; 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) when they allow 55 to 60 points in a game since 1997. Dartmouht is averaging 13 assists per game in a slow style of pace. That ball passing and ball movement/distribution is what I see as the major factor in leading Dartmouth to the win. By comparison, NI has hardly any ball movement ranking 325th in the nation posting a 0.426 assist/FG made ratio. Further, rank a horrid 345th posting a 0.525 assist/turnover ratio and 336th getting just 8.6 assists per game. Take Dartmouth. 

25* graded play on Middle Tennessee State as they take on Oklahoma State in NCAAM basketball action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that MTS will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. I like the edge I see in total rebounding favoring MTS. Strong defensive rebounding serves to limit the number of multi-shot possessions by a superior opponent. It also lends itslef to an increased probability of a complete upset as well. Based on the pace of play I see for this matchup, I believe MTS will get between 40 and 44 boards. In past games, they have posted a strong 37-10 ATS (+26.0 Units) when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds in a game since 1997. OKS is a money burning  7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) as a home favorite of 12.5 to 15 points since 1997; 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points since 1997. Coach Davis is an excellent Davis is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) after a game with five or less offensive rebounds as the coach of MTS. The Blue Raiders are led by F Reggie Upshaw with team highs in minutes (28.4) and scoring (10.33 PPG). They have five players averaging 7 or PPG and this reflects solid ball distribution within a slow-style paced of game. F Xavier Habersham is their real athletic player and is doing a great job on the boards with 9 per game. I strongly believe the Blue Raiders will put up an excellent effort tonight and keep this game to single digits throughout. 

25* graded play on Dartmouth as they take on Jacksonville State in NCAAB action set to start at 3:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Dartmouth will win this game by 7 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 73-31 ATS mark for 70% winners since 1997. Play on road teams as an favorite or pick (DARTMOUTH) and is an excellent defensive team allowing

25* graded play on Princeton as they take on California in NCAAM basketball action set to start at 8:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Princeton will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Princeton is disciplined team that also shoots very well from beyond the arc. This matchup is a big problem for California in past games. Golden Bears are just  0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. Further, they are just 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) in home games after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers since 1997. Princeton is a solid 27-11 ATS (+14.9 Units) as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points since 1997. Princeton is making 8.5 three-point shots per game that ranks them 28th best in the nation. I expect them to make 10 or more in this matchup. This shooting will also spread the Cal defense and open up paint opportunities later in the game. Take Princeton.

25* graded play on South Dakota as they host UNLV in NCAAM basketball action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that SD will win this game. Unless the line expands to 3 1/2 points, the combination wager is just not a good wager based on return on investment (ROI). However, if this line does move to 3 1/2 by game time (which is a possibility as I expect the public to plough their dough in on UNLV) then placing a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line is an excellent ROI opportunity. SD is coming off a very impressive loss 91-88 to Creighton and were installed as massive 17 point dogs. That loss actually shows the team just how good they truly are and that confidence will spillover to this game. Further, SD is an excellent 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after allowing 90 points or more since 1997. They are also a strong 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games after four straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. UNLV is essentially a one player team with Christian Wood leading the team in three categories. UNLV is also rebuilding from last year's edition knowing they have NO returning starters from that team. SD has much more depth and are led guard Tyler Larson, who has team highs in minutes (35), rebounds (8.10), and assists (3.60). He is well supported by Brandon Bos, who has team high in points (17 PPG) and plays 32 minutes. Off the bench, guard Tre Bennette provides meaningful minutes playing 21 minutes with 8.10 PPG, 5 boards, and a team high 1.30 steals per game. Take South Dakota.

25* graded play on VCU as they host No. 23 Northern Iowa in NCAAM basketball action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that VCU will win this game by 10 or more points. Here are a few game situations supporting the expectations I have for the outcome of this game.  NIU is just  2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games when they commit 3 to 7 more turnovers than their opponents over the last 3 seasons; 39-69 ATS (-36.9 Units) when they allow 67 to 74 points in a game since 1997; VCU is a solid  82-58 ATS (+18.2 Units) when they score 67 to 74 points in a game since 1997. VCU is coming off losses in two of the last three games and has failed to cover in each of those three games. Note, however, that VCU is a very resilient  30-11 ATS  after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games since 1997. In his HC tenure at VCU, Smart is a solid Smart is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) after 2 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers. VCU's talent, especially in bench play will dominate NIU in this matchup. Look for guard Melvin Johnson and Forward Trevor Graham to exceed their season averages. Both combine for 34 PPG and I expect the duo to both put up 20 each. In addition, the supporting cast of PG Briante Weber will also have games above season averages. The biggest advantage will at the defensive end for VCU where they are averaging 9.50 steals-per-game. Their team speed, quickness, and athleticism is vastly superior to NIU. Take VCU. 

25* graded play on Montana as they take on Davidson in NCAAM basketball action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Montana will win this game by four or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 64=30 ATS mark for 68% winners since 2009.  Play against road teams as an favorite or pick (DAVIDSON) in a game involving two average defensive teams scoring between 67 and 74 PPG and after scoring 85 points or more. Davidson is off a scrimmage type win over Stetson 90-59. Yet, they are just  4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games after a game outrebounding opponent by 20 or more since 1997. The best matchup I see in my research is the scoring combination of Guard Jordan Gregory and Forward Martin Breunig. Gregory leads Montana with 33 minutes and is scoring 13.7 PPG. Breunig is averaging  team highs in scoring at 15.8 PPG. 6.9 rebounds, and 1.14 blocks. The other guard, Mario Dunn is the dime giver to both of these scorers. I simply do not see Davidson being able to matchup well against this trio. Take Montana. 

25* graded play on BYU as they host NO. 13 Utah in NCAAM basketball action set to start at 9:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that BYU will win this game by seven or more points. The following game situations match my expectations and projections for the outcome of this game. Utah is just 14-42 ATS (-32.2 Units) when they allow 75 to 80 points in a game since 1997. BYU is a solid 37-20 ATS (+15.0 Units) in home games when they make 38% to 45% of their three point attempts in a game since 1997; 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in home games when they have the around same number of rebounds as their opponents in a game since 1997. Further, BYU is a solid 43-23 ATS (+17.7 Units) in home games when facing slow-down teams averaging 53 or less shots/game since 1997; 47-17 ATS (+28.3 Units) in home games after having won 4 of their last 5 games since 1997. Take the BYU Cougars.

25* graded play on Rider as they take on Iona in NCAAM basketball action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Rider will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Rider is led by a solid guard in Teddy Okereafor, who has team-highs in minutes at 32,11.33 PPG, and 2.8 assist per game. Rider's Center is Matt Lopez and at 7-0 and 245 pounds will have a very strong size advantage against Iona tonight. I fully expect that he will have far more points than his 11.0 PPG season average tonight. Iona likes to runt he floor and are averaging 87 PPG. Yet, I see Rider with a sizable rebounding advantage where they will limit Iona's multi-shot possessions. Rider is a solid  45-24 ATS (+18.6 Units) in road games when they grab 34 to 39 rebounds in a game since 1997. Further, Iona is just 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. The simple fact is Rider plays a slower tempo style of game and is the ONLY reason they average fewer rebounds than might be expected. Last, Rider is an outstanding 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) after playing 2 consecutive games as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. Take Rider.

25* graded play on Alcorn State as they take on Iowa in NCAAM basketball action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Alcorn State will lose this game by fewer than 25 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 92-48 ATS for 67% winners since 2008. Play on a road team (ALCORN ST) off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 60 points and is a struggling team winning 20% or less of their games on the season. This si a great example of how lines do get inflated. In this case a weak team in Alcorn State was hammered 72-51 at Troy University and now the books do adjust the line even higher fully expecting public flows to be on Iowa. Sure, this is a mismatch anyway you cut it, but as far as the spread , it is just too many points. Take Alcorn State. 

25* graded play on Illinois as they take on Villanova set to start at 7:00 PM ET and is part of the Jimmy V Classic taking place at Madison Square Garden. The simulator shows a high probability that Illinois will lose this game by fewer than four points and has a chance to extend the first loss to an 8-0 Villanova squad. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 69-35 ATS mark for 67% winners since 1997. Play against neutral court teams (VILLANOVA) and is a solid offensive team scoring between 74 and 78 PPG and is now facing an excellent defensive team allowing

25* graded play on IUPUI as they take on Xavier in NCAAM basketball action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that IUPUI will stay within the generous 25 point spread I am currently seeing. In fact, I think IUPUI will lose this game by fewer than 20 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 72-34 ATS mark for 68% winners since 1997. Play on road underdogs of 20 or more points (IUPUI) that are good free throw shooting teams making >=72% of their free throws and is a struggling defensive team allowing shooting percentage defense of >=45% on the season. Xavier is just  9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) in home games when facing teams who average 33 or less rebounds/game on the season since 1997. IUPUI is led by guard Marcellus Barksdale, who is the team leader in minutes with 34, scoring at 10 PPG, and steals at 2.00 per game. His teammate and fellow guard P.J. Boulte is the 'dime' provider and the two together play excellent defense. They go nine deep with those players averaging a minimum of 16 minutes per game. Xavier really only goes 7 deep and after that playing time is negligible. I do believe in a match like this those 'extra' players will see meaningful minutes tonight. This is game where Xavier can see what they off the bench as they get prepared to enter Conference action in 2015. Take IUPUI.