15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia Phillies +101

The Tampa Bay Rays have already clinched the top overall seed in the American League and have nothing to play for.  The Philadelphia Phillies are one game back of the Giants for the final playoff spot in the National League.  We’ll back the more motivated Phillies here at an underdog price.

I also like backing the Phillies with their best starter on the mound in Zack Wheeler.  He is 4-1 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.109 WHIP in 10 starts this season and averaging 6.4 innings per start. He should be able to go deep into this one and have the Phillies avoid their dreaded bullpen for the most part.  Roll with the Phillies Saturday.

20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Denver +5

The Denver Nuggets have erased two 3-1 deficits already in these playoffs for the first time in NBA playoff history.  And here we are again with the Nuggets in this exact same situation, a spot that they are clearly comfortable with.

And the Nuggets seem to have figured out the Lakers since Game 1.  They have shot 47.3% or better in every game in this series.  They lost at the buzzer in Game 2, won 114-106 in Game 3 and only lost 108-114 in Game 4 after the Lakers got a lot of preferential treatment from the refs down the stretch.  They shot a whopping 35 free throws in that game and that is unlikely to happen again.

Denver is 11-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the last two seasons.  Bet the Nuggets Saturday.

Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: Kentucky +7

Mark Stoops is doing big things at Kentucky as he enters his eighth season on the job.  Stoops has taken the Wildcats to four straight bowl games with 7, 7, 10 and 8 wins the last four years, respectively.

Now the Wildcats return 15 starters from a team that won their final four games last season.  And they get back senior QB Terry Wilson, who was lost to injury after just two starts last season.  Eight starters are back in all on offense, while seven starters and five of the top six tacklers are back on defense.

Auburn is coming off a solid 9-4 season last year.  But after having 14 starters back last season, this looks like a rebuilding year for Gus Malzahn as the Tigers have only 10 starters back.  They lose a ton of studs up front to the NFL, including four on defense and their top two defensive linemen.  They also lose four starters along the offensive line with two of those moving on to the NFL.

The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Kentucky is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games as a road underdog.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

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15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on East Carolina +27

East Carolina went just 4-8 in Mike Houston’s first season on the job.  But they almost upset both Cincinnati and SMU, two teams that won double-digit games last year.  And they played UCF tough, only losing 28-41 as 35-point road underdogs.  

Now ECU is catching 27 points in the rematch, and the Pirates are going to be much better in Houston’s second season on the job.  He welcomes back eight starters on offense including the underrated Holton Ahlers at quarterback.  He has three receivers back that all had 670-plus receiving yards last season.  Ahlers is a dual-threat who rushed for 359 yards and six scores last year.  This offense is going to be good, plus five of the top six tacklers return on defense.

UCF had 10 players opt out of playing for personal reasons this season.  They also have another five players that are out or questionable with an injury.  They aren’t going to be strong enough to put away ECU by four-plus touchdowns, which is what it’s going to take to cover this huge spread.

The Knights are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.  UCF is 2-6 ATS in its last eight conference games.  Take East Carolina Saturday.

15* Iowa State/TCU Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State -2.5

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Iowa State Cyclones after their fluky 14-31 loss to Louisiana as a 13-point favorite in the opener.  The Cyclones gave up two special teams touchdowns and a TD in the final minute to make the score look way worse than it really was.

I still believe the Cyclones can contend for the Big 12 title with the talent they have on hand.  They just have a way of playing to their competition.  And they probably read the press clippings and thought they were better than they were in Week 1.

You know head coach Matt Campbell will have his team humbled with two weeks of practice to get ready for this game after playing Louisiana on September 12th.  And just having that game under their belt is a big advantage compared to TCU, which still has yet to play a game.

After winning eight games one time in 37 years before Campbell took over, the Cyclones have now had three straight eight-plus win seasons.  They were second in the Big 12 in yards per game differential (+62.6) last year and they returned 13 starters from that team.  They have eight starters back on D and may have the best stop unit in the Big 12.  And offensively they have almost all of their top weapons back led by QB Purdy and RB Hall.

TCU went just 5-7 last season, which included a 24-49 loss at Iowa State.  The Horned Frogs aren’t going to be a whole lot better in 2020 with just 12 starters back.  Starting QB Max Duggan isn’t going to start due to heart problems and it’s unclear how much he’ll play, if he plays at all.

Plays on road teams (Iowa State) - in the first month of a season, a bowl team from last season that lost their final two games, a game between two teams with five or less offensive starters returning are 32-8 (80%) since 1992.  These teams are close to even defensively, but the Cyclones have the huge advantage on offense.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Army +13.5

The Army Black Knights clearly came into 2020 underrated off their 5-8 campaign last year.  That followed up back-to-back 10-plus win seasons in 2017 and 2018.  But the Black Knights look like they’re back to being a team that can challenge for double-digit wins again in 2020.

Indeed, Army is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS this season beating Middle Tennessee 42-0 as 3.5-point favorites and LA Monroe 37-7 as 24-point favorites.  They have covered the spread by a combined 44.5 points in their first two games.  It’s taking the oddsmakers too long to catch on to how good this team is, and we’re getting value with them again this week as 13.5-point dogs to Cincinnati.

Cincinnati came in among the favorites to win the AAC this season after winning 11 games each of the past two seasons.  You are getting no discounts to back the Bearcats this season.  And they weren’t exactly a team that blew out their opposition on the regular last season.  Indeed, they went 4-1 in games decided by a TD or less to pad their record last year.

The Bearcats failed to cover as 39.5-point favorites in their opener against lowly Austin Peay in a 55-20 win.  Austin Peay moved the ball just fine on this Cincinnati defense, finishing with 353 total yards, which is pretty good for a poor FCS program.

Cincinnati didn’t play a triple-option team last year and won’t be prepared for Army in just a week’s time after beating Austin Peay last week.  Army has two weeks to prepare for Cincinnati after last playing on September 12th.  That’s a huge advantage for the Black Knights, who are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Bearcats.

Jeff Monken is 15-6 ATS in road games after playing a home game as the coach of Army.  The Black Knights are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 September games.  The Bearcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with Army Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia -4

Bronco Mendenhall enters his fifth season at Virginia.  He led the Cavaliers to the Coastal Division title last year and the Cavaliers went on to play Florida very tough in the Orange Bowl, covering as 14-point dogs in a 28-36 loss.

Now the Cavaliers have 15 starters back and one of the best defenses in the ACC with eight starters and six of their top seven tacklers back.  They have seven starters back on offense, and although they do lose QB Bryce Perkins, he was mistake-prone last year and is replaceable.

Duke has looked terrible in its first two games this season.  The Blue Devils lost 13-27 to Notre Dame before falling 6-26 at home to Boston College last week.  That was a Boston College team with a new head coach playing their first game of the season.  And now they face a veteran Virginia team this week.  I think because it’s Virginia’s first game while Duke has already played two, that is being factored into the line too much.  The Cavaliers will handle it well.

After all, Virginia thumped Duke 48-14 as 3-point home favorites last year.  The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The home team is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings.  The Blue Devils are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

20* Tennessee/South Carolina SEC No-Brainer on Tennessee -3

The Tennessee Vols started just 2-5 last year.  But they rebounded in a big way to go 6-0 in their final six games including a bowl win over Indiana.  And now the Vols enter their third season under Jeremy Pruitt, who just got a raise and a contract extension.

Pruitt now has mostly all of his players in place and the Vols could be a surprise contender in the SEC East.  They are one of the most experienced teams in the country, ranking 12th on that list due to returning a whopping 17 starters.

South Carolina went 4-8 last season and returns just 13 starters.  Injuries really hurt the Gamecocks last season and they aren’t going to be very good this season.  Will Muschamp has this team headed in the wrong direction, similar to what he did at Florida before he was let go.  He is one of the worst coaches in the SEC.

Plays against any team (South Carolina) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses against an opponent that closed out last season with four or more straight wins are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Tennessee is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  Muschamp is 3-14 ATS in home games with a total of 42.5 to 49 in all games he has coached.  The Volunteers are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games.  The Gamecocks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Vols are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 trips to South Carolina.  Take Tennessee Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia State -2.5

Analysis will be posted by Friday.