15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Villanova -8.5

The Villanova Wildcats are one of the most talented teams in the country.  Both Collin Gillespie and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl are two of the best players in the Big East.  Justin Moore is another great player on this roster.  And Tulane transfer Caleb Daniels will play a big role after averaging 16.9 points per game in 2018-19.

I think we are getting Villanova cheap today after failing to cover as 15.5-point favorites in a 76-67 win over an improved Boston College team in their opener.  Gillespie had 15 points, Daniels 14, Moore 14 and Robinson-Earl 18 to lead the way for the Wildcats.  They Wildcats are a legit national title contender in 2020.

They came back and topped a nationally ranked Arizona State team 83-74 as 6-point favorites.  Robinson-Earl showed out with 28 points, while Moore (16), Daniels (14) and Gillespie (11) helped lead the way once again.  These four players are a real handful for any team.

Virginia Tech is picked to finish near the bottom of the ACC by most publications, and for good reason.  They lost their best player in Landers Nolley to Memphis via transfer.  And the transition from Buzz Williams to Mike Young as head coach wasn’t a great one.  They went just 2-13 ATS over their final 15 games and finished 6-15 ATS in ACC play.

The Hokies are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs.  The Wildcats are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 neutral site games.  Roll with Villanova Saturday.

Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: Buffalo -7

The Buffalo Bulls are the best team in the MAC this year.  They went 8-5 last season and while they didn’t win the MAC, I would have had them favored over every team in the conference in the title game.  They were 2nd in the MAC with a +138.0 yards per game differential and they only got better as the season went on.

Now head coach Lance Leipold has his best team yet with 15 returning starters, making the Bulls the 16th-most experienced team in the country.  They also got in nine spring practices, which was the second-most in the MAC.  That was a huge advantage heading into this shortened MAC season.

The Bulls are loaded everywhere on offense with eight returning starters.  They have two 1,000-yard rushers in Jaret Patterson (1,799 yards, 19 TD, 5.8/carry last year) and Kevin Marks (1,035, 8 TD, 4.6/carry).  Each of their top three receivers are back as are their top two quarterbacks.  They return seven starters defensively from a unit that gave up just 21.3 points per game last year.  They are great at getting after opposing quarterbacks, recording 43 sacks last year.

Buffalo got off to a nice start this season with a 49-30 win as a closing 14.5-point favorite at Northern Illinois.  Buffalo led 49-16 with five minutes left in the 4th quarter.  Northern Illinois tacked on two garbage touchdowns in the final five minutes to make the score appear closer than it was.  The Bulls averaged 7.0 yards per play offensively while giving up just 5.0 yards per play to the Huskies.

They then crushed Miami Ohio 42-10 as a 7-point favorite.  They outgained the Redhawks 558 to 258 for the game.  That’s a Miami Ohio team that was the defending MAC champions.  And last week Buffalo made easy work of Bowling Green 42-17, but they did fail to cover as 31.5-point favorites after taking their foot off the gas in the 4th quarter.

Now Buffalo comes in highly motivated this week to avenge a fluky 27-30 loss to Kent State last year.  The Bulls blew a 27-6 lead in the 4th quarter as the Golden Flashes outscored them 24-0 over the final eight minutes of that game.  That is not going to happen again, and the Bulls have not forgotten.  They are the more complete team here and should be more than 7-point favorites.

But Kent State is getting respect from oddsmakers after starting 3-0 against three of the worst teams in the MAC.  Two of the wins came against Akron and Bowling Green, which are easily the two worst teams in the conference.  And the other was a 27-23 win over Eastern Michigan as 5.5-point favorites.  This is a big step up in class here for the Golden Flashes.

The Bulls are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 conference games.  Buffalo is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a home favorite.  It’s revenge time for the Bulls here.  Bet Buffalo Saturday.

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15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Texas Tech +11

I faded Oklahoma State last week with an easy win on Oklahoma -7 in Bedlam in a 41-13 blowout win over the Cowboys.  I thought that would have exposed the Cowboys for the frauds they were, but here they are laying double-digits to Texas Tech this week.  The value is clearly on the Red Raiders as the Cowboys are once again getting way too much respect from oddsmakers.

Oklahoma State’s offense has been terrible all season in averaging just 386.4 yards per game.  Take away the 593 yards they had against Kansas and the numbers look really bad for them against all the other legitimate teams they have faced.  They were held to 256 yards by Kansas State and then 246 yards by Oklahoma in their last two games.  Now QB Spencer Sanders has a head injury and may not start, and backup Shane Illingworth is out with Covid-19.  It’s just a bad look for the Cowboys offensively right now.

I think the Cowboys could suffer a hangover here from that deflating loss to Oklahoma, and Texas Tech is in a great spot coming in on two weeks’ rest following a last second win over Baylor two weeks ago.  Their only blowout loss this season came against Oklahoma, and they beat West Virginia earlier this year and deserved to beat Texas in an overtime loss after they blew a 15-point lead in the final minutes.

Texas Tech simply has Oklahoma State’s number.  The Red Raiders are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  They pulled two outright upsets each of the last two years.  They won 45-35 as a 9-point dog last year and 41-17 as a 14.5-point dog in 2018.  And in 2017 they only lost by 7 as a 10-point dog and by 1 in 2016 as a 10.5-point dog.  And once again they are catching too many points here when they are in the better spot off a bye and with Oklahoma State off Bedlam.  Roll with Texas Tech Saturday.

15* Nevada/Hawaii MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on Nevada -7

Nevada was a team I was very high on coming into the season and they have not let me down.  They returned 17 starters and a ton of experience, a prolific offense and one of the most improved defenses in the country due to the size the Wolf Pack have accumulated on the defensive line.

The Wolf Pack are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season and showing they can contend for a Mountain West title.  They are averaging 32.2 points and 460.6 yards per game on offense and giving up just 20.6 points and 312.8 yards per game on defense.  They feature a high-octane passing attack with 69.9% completions, 364 yards per game and 8.3 yards per attempt.

They want revenge from their worst loss of the season last year, a 54-3 loss to Hawaii when they were 2-point favorites in a downpour.  Weather will be perfect in Hawaii, and this is a Hawaii team now in rebuilding mode after losing head coach Nick Rolovich to Washington State.

Hawaii is just 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS this season.  The Warriors’ only wins came against Fresno State in the opener and over New Mexico 39-33 as a 13-point favorite.  That’s a New Mexico team that lost 28-0 to Air Force two weeks ago and then suffered an embarrassing 41-27 loss to Utah State as a 6-point favorite on Thursday.

Hawaii also lost 7-31 to Wyoming, 10-34 to San Diego State and 32-40 to Boise State.  And keep in mind that loss to Boise was much worse than the final score showed.  The Broncos led 40-17 entering the 4th quarter before the Warriors scored two touchdowns in garbage time and converted a plethora of 4th-down conversions in the process.

These teams already have three common opponents.  Nevada is 3-0 against them and outscoring them by 5.0 points per game.  Hawaii is 1-2 against them and getting outscored by 14.0 points per game.  That’s a 19-point scoring differential, and it shows that Nevada can easily cover this 7-point spread Saturday night without really even trying.

Hawaii is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games after tailing in its last two games by 14 or more points at halftime.  The Wolf Pack are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Rainbow Warriors are 11-27-1 ATS in their last 39 home games.  The Wolf Pack are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  It’s revenge time here as the Wolf Pack improve to 6-0 this season with a blowout victory over the Rainbow Warriors.  Take Nevada Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston -1

Analysis will be posted by Friday.

20* Oklahoma/West Virginia Big 12 No-Brainer on West Virginia +11

Analysis will be posted by Friday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Georgia State ML +107

Georgia State is one of my favorite teams to back because they just fly under the radar in the Sun Belt conference.  They are 4-4 this season and nearly upset Appalachian State two weeks ago in a 13-17 loss as 18.5-point dogs.  And last week they handled South Alabama 31-14 as 3.5-point favorites behind 556 yards of total offense.

Their offense is hitting on all cylinders right now and their defense just limited App State to 310 total yards and South Alabama to 324 total yards.  They should not be underdogs to Georgia Southern this week in a game they are going to win outright.

Georgia Southern has to be getting tired playing for a 7th consecutive week here.  After three straight home wins by 7 points or fewer, they finally met their match last week in a 27-28 loss to Army.  And you know how physical Army is with their triple-option, so that game will have taken a lot out of Georgia Southern heading into this game with Georgia State.

Georgia Southern is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as a road favorite.  The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  Take Georgia State on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Louisiana-Monroe +28.5

Louisiana-Lafayette already clinched its 3rd straight West Division title last time out with a 38-10 win over South Alabama.  They don’t have much to play for the rest of the way.  And they have COVID problems with 33 players in coronavirus protocol last week, causing their game against Central Arkansas to be cancelled.

Head coach Billy Napier also tested positive and hasn’t been with the team all week and won’t be with them until the game Saturday.  His quotes are very telling.  “The tough thing here is we don’t get to practice, and I’m not going to have the opportunity to spend time with family for Thanksgiving.  I wish I could be with the guys during the week and all that getting ready, but I mean, it’s not happening.  It’s fortunate that it worked out to where I can be there Saturday.”

The betting public wants nothing to do with this 0-8 Louisiana-Monroe team.  So they are catching a boat load of points here because of their record.  But six of their eight losses this season came by 25 points or less.  They only exceptions were their 30-point loss to Army in the opener and their 33-point loss to Liberty, which are two very good teams.

Louisiana-Monroe only lost by 18 points to Appalachian State a few weeks back.  The Mountaineers are the two-time defending Sun Belt champs, so that was a good performance.  And speaking of Appalachian State, Louisiana has them on deck next week. They could easily be looking ahead to that game against a team that has beaten them each of the last two years in the Sun Belt title game.  They want revenge on App State as that is their Super Bowl.

This game is Louisiana-Monroe’s Super Bowl against their biggest rivals in Louisiana-Lafaytte.  They get up for this game every year, and that has shown in recent meetings.  Six of the last seven meetings have been decided by 7 points or fewer.  That includes last year when Monroe was a 20.5-point dog and only lost by a single point, 30-31.

I like the new QB for Louisiana-Monroe in Jeremy Hunt, who relieved ailing starter Colby Suits against Georgia State last time out.  He threw for 339 yards and three touchdowns and clearly gave their offense a spark by leading the Warhawks to 34 points in that 18-point loss.

Louisiana is simply overvalued due to its 7-1 record.  But five of those wins came by 10 points or fewer, and they haven’t beaten anyone by more than 28 points this season.  The underdog is 16-3-1 ATS in the last 20 meetings.  Bet Louisiana-Monroe Saturday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Maryland +12

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on Indiana this week.  They are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS this season and now getting way too much respect from oddsmakers.  And it’s a terrible sandwich spot for them coming off a tough 35-42 loss to Ohio State and with Wisconsin on deck next week.  I think they suffer a hangover here from that loss to the Buckeyes and won’t be as motivated or focused as they need to be to put away Maryland by double-digits.

Maryland’s 3-43 loss to Northwestern in the opener has them extremely undervalued now.  They have since gone on to pull off two straight luges upsets with a 45-44 win over Minnesota as a 17.5-point dog and a 35-19 win over Penn State as a 27.5-point dog.

Starting QB Tualia Tagovailoa is one of the top QB recruits in the country.  After a stinker against Northwestern, he has been brilliant in his last two starts.  He threw for 394 yards and three touchdowns against Minnesota before throwing for 282 yards and three more touchdowns against Penn State.  He is also a dual-threat with 61 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground this season.

Each of the last four meetings in this series were decided by 6 points or fewer.  And you know Maryland wants revenge from losing the last two by a combined 8 points.  Plus it’s a great spot for the Terrapins here coming in rested after last playing on November 7th.  And Indiana will be playing for a 6th consecutive week, and their tough early schedule will take its toll this week.

Indiana is 4-1 SU despite only outgaining its opponents by an average of 9.6 yards per game on the season.  That stat alone shows how overvalued Indiana is right now.  And it’s time to fade them this week as they suffer their first ATS loss of the season, and they’ll be fortunate to even win this game straight up.  I definitely have some Maryland +360 on the money line and you should too.  But we’ll take the points for some added insurance.  Bet Maryland Saturday.