Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Angels/Twins UNDER 8

I'll come back with the UNDER 8 between the Angels and Twins for many of the same reasons that led us to cashing the UNDER 8.5 last night.  Both the Minnesota Twins and Los Angeles Angels are really struggling at the plate right now due to injuries.  

The Twins have scored a total of 4 runs in their last four games, and they have only topped 4 runs once in their last 12 games overall.  The Angels have only topped 5 runs twice in their last 18 games overall.

Minnesota ace Pablo Lopez goes tonight and is coming off his best stretch of the season.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in eight of his last 10 starts, and 4 earned runs or fewer in all 10.  He has allowed a total of 3 earned runs in 27 1/3 innings in his last four starts for a 0.99 ERA.

Griffin Canning is coming off one of his best starts of the season.  He held the red-hot Dodgers to just one earned run in 6 2/3 innings with 7 K's.  I expect him to hold the Twins in check tonight as well.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

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15* AL Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Royals/Yankees OVER 8.5

Two of the best offenses in the American League square off in this series between the Yankees and Royals.  The Yankees are scoring 5.1 runs per game while the Royals are scoring 4.7 runs per game this season.

Seth Lugo is having a great season for the Royals, but one of his worst starts came against the Yankees on June 10th.  He allowed 4 earned runs in 7 innings for the Yankees, and they will get to him again tonight after putting up 10 runs on the Royals last night.

The Royals will get their bats going against Marcus Stroman, who allowed 5 earned runs and 10 base runners in 3 2/3 innings to the Blue Jays in his last start.  Stroman has a 4.03 ERA on the season and pitches too much to contact with just 105 K's in 143 innings.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 11 or more combined runs in three of the four.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Padres/Mariners Interleague ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7

The San Diego Padres have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 4.8 runs per game.  They have been at their best offensively on the road as well.  The Seattle Mariners are heating up at the plate scoring a total of 38 runs in their last five games for an average of 7.6 runs per game.

This total of 7 is too low for these two offenses going up against these two starting pitchers.  Yu Darvish is working his way back from injury making just his 2nd start since May.  He allowed 3 earned runs in 2 2/3 innings to the Tigers while throwing just 63 pitches in his first start back, and he'll surely be on a pitch count again tonight.

George Kirby is going through his worst stretch of the season for the Mariners.  He has allowed 21 earned runs and 9 homers in 31 innings in his last six starts for a 6.10 ERA.  This despite facing a soft schedule of the Tigers (twice), Pirates, Giants, Angels and A's.  The Padres will get to him tonight as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

25* MLB GAME OF THE YEAR on New York Mets -122

I love everything about the New York Mets tonight.  They are streaking right now going 10-1 in their last 11 games overall.  They have come up clutch to take a one game lead on the Atlanta Braves in the race for the final wild card spot in the National League.  And I fully expect them to take care of the hapless Toronto Blue Jays tonight.

David Peterson is arguably the single-most underrated starter in baseball this season.  Peterson is 9-1 with a 2.75 ERA in 17 starts this season.  Amazingly, he has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 15 of his 17 starts.  What more does this guy have to do to get some respect?

I'll gladly fade Chris Bassitt, who is 9-13 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 28 starts for the Blue Jays this season.  Bassitt has allowed 18 earned runs, 5 homers and 41 base runners in 27 innings in his last five starts coming in.

The Blue Jays have waved the white flag.  They are 1-6 in their last seven games overall while being held to 3 runs or fewer in 9 of their last 12 games.  They were already without one of their best hitters in Bo Bichette, and they just lost their best hitter in Vlad Guerrero Jr. (.322, 28 HR, 94 RBI this season) for this series.  Bet the Mets Tuesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Rangers/Diamondbacks OVER 7.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 28-14 in their last 42 games overall while riding the hottest offense in baseball.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 180 runs in their last 27 games for an average of 6.7 runs per game.  They are the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.4 runs per game.

This total of 7.5 is too low for a game involving the Diamondbacks.  That's especially the case considering the Rangers are hot as well scoring 6 runs or more in five of their last eight games overall.

Nathan Eovaldi and Zac Gallen both get a lot of respect from the books, but both have struggled compared to normal this season.  Eovaldi has allowed 7 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings in his last three starts against Arizona.  Gallen has allowed 9 earned runs in 22 innings in his last four starts.

The OVER is 31-8-1 in Diamondbacks last 40 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 30 of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* AL East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Orioles/Red Sox OVER 9

Two of the best offenses in baseball square off tonight in Game 2 of this series after a 12-3 win by the Red Sox in Game 1 that saw 15 combined runs.  The Orioles are scoring 4.9 runs per game while the Red Sox are scoring 4.8 runs per game this season, and this total of 9 is too short.

Kutter Crawford is 8-13 with a 4.08 ERA in 29 starts for the Red Sox this season.  Crawford has allowed 8 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings in two starts against the Orioles this season.  He is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball.

Albert Suarez has solid numbers for the Orioles, but he is one of the biggest regression candidates here down the stretch because he pitches too much to contact and isn't used to this kind of workload.  Suarez has just 87 K's in 113 1/3 innings, and he has never pitched more than 84 innings in his career.  He allowed 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 4 1/3 innings to the lowly White Sox in his last start.  

Nine of the last 10 meetings between the Orioles and Red Sox at hitter-friendly Fenway Park have seen 10 or more combined runs, making for a 9-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 9-run total.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Braves/Nationals UNDER 8

The Atlanta Braves are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They have gone 86-53 UNDER in all games this season.  Their lineup has been decimated by injuries, but their staff has carried them into playoff contention.  The Nationals have been even worse offensively than the Braves this season.

Reynaldo Lopez is having himself a season.  Lopez is 8-5 with a 2.04 ERA in 23 starts for the Braves this season.  He has been absolutely dominant since returning from the IL, allowing just 5 earned runs in 23 innings with a whopping 34 K's in his last four starts.  Lopez has held the Nationals to 3 earned runs in 12 innings with 14 K's in two starts against them this season.

MacKenzie Gore has been a bright spot for the Nationals this season.  He has allowed just 4 earned runs in 18 innings with 19 K's in his last three starts.  Gore owns the Braves, allowing just 3 earned runs in 17 1/3 innings with 21 K's for a 1.56 ERA in three starts against them in 2024 alone.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Cubs/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 8

There are two of the hottest lineups in baseball.  The forecast is going to help us cash in this OVER 8 ticket with temps in the 70's and 10 MPH winds blowing out to center in Los Angeles.  This has the makings of a slug fest between the Dodgers and Cubs in Game 2 tonight after they combined for 14 runs in Game 1 last night.

No question Shota Imanaga is having an impressive rookie season, but he hasn't faced a lineup as potent as the Dodgers.  They are scoring 5.0 runs per game this season and have been on a tear since getting healthy.  They will get to Imanaga tonight.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be making his first start for the Dodgers since June 15th.  He will be on a pitch count, and the Cubs will get to him and this Los Angeles bullpen that is pretty taxed right now.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings with 9 or more combined runs in six of those seven.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.