Jack's Free Pick Friday: Chicago Bulls +4

I cashed in the Bulls last night as a premium pick and I'm back on them tonight despite this being the 2nd of a back-to-back situation.  I think oddsmakers have adjusted the line too much in Boston's favor for this back-to-back spot for the Bulls.  But it isn't as bad for them tonight for a couple different reasons.

The Bulls blew out the Hornets 120-99 last night, which allowed them to rest their starters late.  None of their starters played more than 30 minutes in that game.  And they were coming in on two days' rest as well, so they should still be reasonably fresh.  Plus, the Bulls are as healthy as they have been all season and shouldn't have anyone sitting tonight.  They just got back Zach LaVine from quarantine last night as well.

The Celtics are getting too much respect here as they are just 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Those three wins came against the Hornets, Spurs and Magic.  They also lost to the Hornets and Thunder during this stretch.  They will be without one of their best players in Jaylen Brown tonight, which isn't being factored into the line enough.

The Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a SU win.  Boston is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games following an ATS win.  The Celtics are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Bulls Friday.

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15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Red Sox/Orioles OVER 8.5

I'll gladly take the OVER 8.5 tonight between the Red Sox and Orioles.  They will be playing in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the majors in Camden Yards.  And it's not often you will get the opportunity to bet an OVER in an Orioles home game that is under 9 runs.

I think both starting pitchers are getting too much respect because they are off to decent starts this season.  Matt Harvey has a 4.06 ERA in his six starts while Eduardo Rodriquez has a 4.18 ERA in his five starts.  They have a combined 7-1 record on the season.  But they aren't nearly as good as that record suggests and they will come back down to reality tonight.

Both teams are hot at the plate right now.  Boston has scored 5 or more runs in five of its last six games overall.  Baltimore has scored 5 or more runs in four of its last five games overall.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings this season between the Red Sox and Orioles with combined scores of 10 or more runs in all four games and an average of 14.3 combined runs per game.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -16.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are surging right now in going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with wins over the Nets (twice), Wizards and Bulls.  They are now just 0.5 games behind the Nets for 2nd place in the East and it is big for them to get home-court advantage because they will likely meet up in the 2nd round.

That's why I'm not concerned about the Bucks taking the Rockets lightly tonight.  Plus, the Rockets don't have enough talented bodies on the floor right now to even be competitive against Milwaukee's B-squad.  The thing is the Bucks are fully healthy right now and not expected to sit anyone with what's at stake with the regular season coming to an end soon.

The Rockets are without Wall, Gordon, Bradley, Wilson, House, Brown and Porter Jr.  Plus Wood, Olynyk and Augustin are all questionable.  It's no wonder the Rockets are just 5-40 SU & 12-33 ATS in their last 45 games overall.  That includes three straight blowout losses to the Warriors by 26, the Knicks by 25 and the 76ers by 20.  It should be more of the same tonight against the Bucks.

Houston is 1-10 ATS following three straight losses by 10 points or more this season.  The Rockets are 14-41 ATS in their last 55 games playing on one days' rest.  Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.  Another reason the Bucks won't take the Rockets lightly is because they just lost to them on April 29th just over a week ago, so they will be out for revenge as well.  Roll with the Bucks Friday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Phillies/Braves OVER 7.5

This is a very low total for two of the best lineups in the National League.  Plus, the forecast is going to help us cash this OVER 7.5 ticket tonight.  There is expected to be 10 MPH winds blowing out to center with temperatures in the mid-60's in Atlanta tonight.

Charlie Morton has struggled for the Braves this season with a 5.08 ERA in six starts, including a 5.71 ERA in three home starts.  Zach Eflin has been good at home but awful on the road for the Phillies, posting a 6.39 ERA in his two road starts.  And I like the fact that both lineups have already seen these starting pitchers twice this season so they will know what to expect the 3rd time around.

Eflin is 19-6 OVER on the road with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs in his career.  Atlanta is 23-9 OVER in its last 32 games following two or more consecutive wins.  The OVER is 7-1 in Phillies last eight road games vs. a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Atlanta.  The OVER is 6-0 in Braves last six home games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 24-9-3 in Braves last 36 games as home favorites.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Lakers/Blazers ESPN No-Brainer on Portland -8

The Portland Trail Blazers are surging right now and living up to their potential at the end of the season.  They are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last five games overall with all five wins coming by double-digits and by an average of 21.4 points per game.  It wasn't against soft competition either with all five wins coming on the road against the Pacers, Grizzlies, Nets, Celtics & Cavs.  Their only loss was in the 2nd of a back-to-back situation at Atlanta.

Now the Blazers take on the reeling Los Angeles Lakers who just can't catch a break in the health department.  The Lakers are 2-7 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They are back to being without LeBron James and Dennis Shroeder.

Anthony Davis had to leave last night's game with a back injury and is questionable to play tonight.  The Lakers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days here.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Blazers, and they definitely don't have enough talented bodies to be able to stay with them with the way they are playing right now.

The Lakers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  The Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as favorites.  Take the Blazers Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Timberwolves/Heat OVER 225

The Minnesota Timberwolves are a great OVER team, especially of late.  They have scored 113 or more points in 12 of their last 17 games overall.  They have allowed 114 or more points in 11 of their last 15 games overall.  Minnesota ranks 4th in pace this season and 28th in defensive efficiency.

The Miami Heat have been a great OVER bet of late as well.  Indeed, the OVER is 7-0 in Heat last seven games overall.  They have combined with their opponents for 227 or more points in four straight games coming in and I think it's safe to say it will be five straight tonight as we cash this OVER 225 ticket.

Miami and Minnesota just met on April 16th with the Timberwolves pulling the 119-111 upset for 230 combined points.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with each of the last three seeing 225 or more combined points.  They combined for 255 points at the end or regulation in their final meeting last season.  The OVER is also 8-1 in the last nine meetings with 225 or more combined points in six of those.

The OVER is 7-0 in Timberwolves last seven games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  The OVER is 6-0 in Timberwolves last six games following an ATS loss.  Combine those unbeaten trends with the 5-0 and 7-0 trends from before and we have a perfect 25-0 system backing the OVER tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.