Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Boston Red Sox -102

The Boston Red Sox are finally starting to play up to their potential.  They are 6-1 in their last seven games overall and scoring 7.9 runs per game during this stretch.  They have a big advantage on the mound over the Chicago White Sox tonight.

Michael Wacha is 3-0 with a 1.76 ERA and 1.011 WHIP In six starts this season.  The Red Sox have gone 5-1 in his six starts as he has consistently been undervalued.  The White Sox are hitting just .222 and scoring 3.4 runs per game against right-handed starters this season.

Dallas Keuchel is the weak link in Chicago's rotation.  He is 2-4 with a 6.90 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in seven starts this season, allowing 23 earned runs in 30 innings with 18 walks and only 16 K's.  Keuchel has posted a 5.09 ERA and 1.475 WHIP in seven career starts against Boston.

Chicago is 1-7 in its last eight home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the Red Sox Thursday.

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15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Rockies/Nationals OVER 8

The books have set the bar too low tonight in this matchup between the Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals.  Temperatures are expected to be in the 70's with winds blowout out to center to help aid us in cashing this OVER as well.

These are two of the worst starters in baseball going tonight.  German Marquez is 1-4 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.591 WHIP in eight starts this season and has actually been worse on the road than he has been at home.  Marquez is 2-3 with an 8.44 ERA and 1.719 WHIP in six career starts against Washington.

Patrick Corbin is 0-7 with a 6.59 ERA and 1.695 WHIP in nine starts this season for the Nationals.  Corbin has posted a 4.51 ERA and 1.427 WHIP in 25 career starts against Colorado.  He is 0-3 with a 5.00 ERA in his last three starts against the Rockies as well.

Colorado is 9-0 OVER in its last nine games following three or more consecutive road games.  The Rockies are 8-1 OVER vs. teams that draw three or fewer walks per game this season.  The OVER is 7-1 in Rockies last eight games after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -115

For starters, I like the fact that the St. Louis Cardinals had yesterday off and were able to stay home after their two-game series with Toronto.  They will be the much fresher team over the Brewers, who played Wednesday in San Diego and had the long flight to St. Louis overnight.

Adam Wainwright just continues getting the job done for the Cardinals.  He went 17-7 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.057 WHIP in 32 starts last season.  Wainwright has picked up where he left off, going 5-3 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.191 WHIP in eight starts this season.  He is one of the most underrated starters in all of baseball.

Eric Lauer is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers after a tremendous start this season that has come out of nowhere.  Lauer will meet his match against the Cardinals tonight.  He is 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.917 WHIP in three career starts against St. Louis, allowing 9 earned runs and 5 homers in 12 innings.

The Cardinals are scoring 6.1 runs per game against left-handed starters this season.  They are 17-4 in their last 21 games vs. left-handed starters.  St. Louis is 16-3 in Wainwright's last 19 starts following a team loss in their previous game.  Take the Cardinals Thursday.

20* Mavs/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on Dallas +7.5

The Dallas Mavericks feel like they are playing on house money.  Everyone counted them out when they were down 3-0 in this series.  They came out relaxed in Game 4 and won 119-109 over Golden State.  Now they will come out relaxed in Game 5 and give the Warriors a run for their money.

Dallas has two very poor shooting games in this series which explains two of their losses.  They had the Warriors by the balls in Game 2 but blew a 14-point halftime lead.  They are much better shooting team than they have shown in this series, and they finally knocked some down in a 20-of-43 (46.5%) performance from 3 in Game 4.

Remember, the Mavericks were down 3-2 to Phoenix and everyone counted them out last series.  They proceeded to crush the Suns at home by 27 in Game 6 and by 30 on the road in Game 7.  They really don't feel like they are out of this series.  I don't think the Warriors were in it mentally in Game 4 with the shooting in Texas and Steve Kerr having such a big reaction to it.  I question their head space in Game 5 as well.  They struggled to close out he Grizzlies last series, and it won't be easy closing out this feisty Mavs team, either.

There's value with the Mavericks when you consider they were 5.5-point road underdogs in Game 1 and 6-point road underdogs in Game 2, and now they are 7 or 7.5-point road underdogs in Game 5.  Dallas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 5 Thursday.