20* Bills/Jets ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 41

It's going to be very windy Monday night in New York with 10-20 MPH winds throughout the game.  Wind is the biggest factor in preventing points, and these are already two dead nuts UNDER teams as currently constructed.

The Jets have yet another Top 5 defense this season.  They rank 6th in scoring defense at 17.0 points per game, 2nd in total defense at 255.8 yards per game and 1st at 4.5 yards per play allowed.  They are nearly back to full strength defensively as LB C.J. Mosely is back this week and NB Michael Carter II is questionable.

The Bills have slipped a little defensively this season ranking 12th in the NFL allowing 21.2 points per game.  But injuries and a tough schedule are a big reason for that slippage as they have had to face the Texans, Ravens, Jaguars, Dolphins and Cardinals.  This may be the worst offense they have faced yet in the Jets.

The Bills have LB Terrel Bernard, NB Taron Johnson and SS Taylor Rapp back in the lineup after all three missed games earlier.  They'll be up against a poor Jets offense that ranks 25th in scoring at 18.6 points per game, 27th in total offense at 286.6 yards per game and 27th at 4.7 yards per play.

The problem for the Bills this season is a lack of playmakers on offense.  They rank 22nd in the NFL at 299.8 yards per game.  After managing just 10 points against the Ravens two weeks ago, the Bills were fortunate to get to 20 points against the Texans last week considering they were held to 276 total yards and 16 first downs.  Josh Allen had the worst game of his career completing just 9-of-30 (30%) of his pass attempts for 131 yards.

Allen was without his best receiver in Khalil Shakir last week, and he didn't practice Friday and may be out again with an ankle injury.  Now leading rusher James Cook has a toe injury and didn't practice Friday as well.  WR Mack Hollins and WR Curtis Samuel are banged up, and QB Allen is dealing with ankle and hand injuries and hasn't looked the same the last two weeks.

The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with 38 or fewer combined points in all five.  The UNDER is 17-2-1 in the last 20 Monday Night Football games when the home team is listed as the underdog.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

25* MLB Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Guardians/Yankees OVER 7.5

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket between the Guardians and Yankees in Game 1 of this series tonight.  There will be 20 MPH winds blowing out to right-center at game time and 15-plus MPH winds blowing out that direction throughout.

Alex Cobb allowed 2 earned runs in 3 innings to the Tigers in his last start before the Guardians gave way to their bullpen.  Cobb has allowed 6 earned runs and 4 homers in 7 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Yankees.

Carlos Rodon has allowed 6 earned runs, 3 homers and 15 base runners in 9 innings in his last two starts coming in.  Rodon has allowed 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 13 innings in his last two starts against Cleveland.

I don't trust either of these starters to shut down the opposition, especially given the forecast.  Both teams will likely have to go to their bullpens early in this one, and both bullpens should continue to surrender runs.  Bet the OVER in Game 1 Monday.

20* Lions/Cowboys NFC No-Brainer on Detroit -3

The Detroit Lions absolute hate the Dallas Cowboys.  They lost to them in the playoffs on a phantom penalty a few years ago.  They lost on another bogus penalty last year getting their 2-point conversion called back in a 20-19 defeat.  They have now lost six straight to the Cowboys.  This is the week they say enough is enough.

Normally I don't like backing teams coming out of their bye week who went into their bye week fat and happy like the Lions did.  They beat the Seahawks 42-29 to improve to 3-1 on the season.  But they aren't fat and happy because they have revenge in mind against the Cowboys, plus they are now trailing the 5-0 Minnesota Vikings within the division.  The Lions will be all business this week.

But this is as much a fade of the Cowboys as anything.  Dallas has been ravaged by injuries as they are missing four key defensive linemen including Parsons and Lawrence.  The Steelers weren't able to take advantage last week, but the Lions will be able to.  They have one of the best offensive lines and thus one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL.

The Lions rank 6th in the NFL in rushing at 151.2 yards per game and will be up against a Cowboys defense that ranks 24th at stopping the run.  The Cowboys are 0-2 in their two home games this season losing 44-19 to the Saints and 28-25 to the Ravens in a game the Ravens led by 22 at one point.  The Ravens rushed for 274 yards on the Cowboys while the Saints rushed for 190.  And that was before all these injuries started to hit this Cowboys defense.

This is a very tough spot for the Cowboys.  They return home from Pittsburgh after playing on Sunday Night Football and having their game delayed by lightning to boot.  It didn't get over until around midnight eastern, meaning the Cowboys didn't get back home until early Monday morning.  They have a bye on deck next week and may play it smart and not rush anyone back from injury as a result.  The Lions will be the fresher team playing with a sense of urgency this week.  Bet the Lions Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Falcons/Panthers OVER 47.5

The Carolina Panthers are a dead nuts OVER team with Andy Dalton at quarterback.  The OVER is 3-0 in Dalton's three starts this season with 58, 58 and 46 combined points.  He makes their offense respectable, and he is forced to try to win shootouts every week because the Panthers have arguably the worst defense in the NFL.

The Panthers rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 33.0 points per game allowed, 28th in total defense at 371.2 yards per game and 26th at 6.0 yards per play.  Injuries have absolutely decimated their defense as they are without DE Derrick Brown, LB Shaq Thompson, LB Jadeveon Clowney and LB Josey Jewell among others.  They have nine defenders on the IR already.

Now they must try and tame a hot Atlanta offense that ranks 7th in the NFL at 6.2 yards per play.  Kirk Cousins is coming off one of his best games of his career with 509 passing yards and 4 TD in a 36-30 win over the Bucs last week.  The Falcons will be able to name their number against this Carolina defense, and Dalton and company will be forced to go up-tempo in the 2H to try and keep pace.  Carolina does a good job of pass blocking up front, and Atlanta has one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL, so Dalton should have plenty of success.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Chargers/Broncos AFC West ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -2.5

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Chargers this week.  They are coming off their bye week, and bye weeks are much more beneficial to first-year head coaches like Jim Harbaugh.  The bye couldn't have come at a better time for the Chargers, who were extremely banged up going into their bye and needed the rest to get some key players healthy.

Reinforcements are on the way now.  Both starting tackles in Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater are expected to return this week.  QB Justin Herbert needed those two weeks to get his ankle healed up and has no injury designation now.  They are fully healthy on offense, plus SS Derwin James returns and LB Joey Bosa will likely be back as well.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Broncos, who are coming off three straight misleading wins since their 0-2 start.  They caught the Bucs in a letdown spot after getting playoff revenge on the Lions the previous week and upset them 26-7.  Two weeks ago they beat the Jets 10-9 on the road despite managing just 176 total yards on offense.  Last week, they beat the Raiders 34-18 despite getting outgained 330 to 289 by Las Vegas.  The Raiders were going in to take a 17-3 lead but threw a 100-yard pick-6 that changed the game.

Injuries are mounting for the Broncos now.  They will be without two starting offensive linemen in C Luke Wattenberg and RT Alex Palczewski, and two other offensive linemen are already on the IR.  WR Josh Reynolds is out as well.  This Denver offense may be the worst in the entire NFL now.  They rank 28th in total offense at 270.6 yards per game and 30th at 4.6 yards per play.  They'll be up against a Chargers defense that ranks 5th at 282.5 yards per game, 6th at 5.2 yards per play and 1st in scoring at 12.5 points per game allowed.

The Chargers fit into a great system, and road favorites off a bye week have been gold for years to boot.  Bye teams coming off a loss against a non-bye team that is coming off a win, when the team off a bye is not more than a 3-point underdog are 35-6 ATS in the last 41 tries.  Favorites or short dogs off a loss off a bye are a great bet, and it makes sense because they are motivated and rested.  Bet the Chargers Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Colts/Titans OVER 42.5

The Indianapolis Colts may have the worst defense in the NFL with all their injuries right now.  They just gave up 37 points and 497 total yards to what was a previously dead Jaguars offense last week.  They now rank 32nd in total defense allowing 419.2 yards per game and 30th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are without three defensive linemen including DeForest Buckner, they are without their best CB in JuJu Brents and they are without another linebacker.

The Titans are coming off their bye week and in line for their best offensive output of the season.  Bye weeks are very beneficial to first-year head coaches like Brian Callahan.  He gets Will Levis back from injury this week, and Levis will look like Montana up against this Indianapolis defense.  The Titans should be able to name their number against this Colts stop unit.

Shane Steichen is an offensive-minded head coach for the Colts and he is a dead nuts OVER coach because he likes to push the tempo and doesn't worry about defense.  This Indianapolis offense ranks 4th in the NFL averaging 6.4 yards per play.  They should do enough against the Titans to push this one up and OVER the total.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Line Mistake on Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML -140

I released the Bucs on the Money Line as soon as I found out Derek Carr would be out for the Saints.  I already loved the spot for the Bucs after playing last Thursday while the Saints played on Monday, giving the Bucs a 4-day rest advantage.

This play has just gotten stronger with all the injuries the Saints are dealing with right now.  They aren't the same team that opened 2-0 with blowout wins over the Panthers and Cowboys.  Injuries have really decimated this team and are the biggest reason for their 0-3 record since.

Not only are the Saints without Carr, but they are without C Erik McCoy and RG Cesar Ruiz.  Both backup centers are either out or questionable as well.  Defensively, the Saints are without LB Pete Werner and S Will Harris as well.  They just allowed 460 total yards to the Chiefs, who were missing key weapons and still did whatever they wanted offensively Monday night.

The Bucs rank 10th in the NFL scoring 25.4 points per game.  They are pretty healthy on offense, and on defense they are likely to get two key pieces back this week in DE Calijah Kancey and S Antoine Winfield.  There's a good chance they get back to full strength here defensively, which hasn't been the case the last few weeks.

The Bucs are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four trips to New Orleans, including a 26-9 victory last week.  I just don't think rookie QB Spencer Rattler has what it takes to win in his first start.  The Saints are also without TE Taysom Hill, who brings an added dimension to their offense that they have been missing the last three weeks.  Todd Bowles should have a field day calling defense against Rattler and keeping him off balance while committing multiple turnovers.  Bet the Bucs on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Tennessee Titans ML -115

The Indianapolis Colts may have the worst defense in the NFL with all their injuries right now.  They just gave up 37 points and 497 total yards to what was a previously dead Jaguars offense last week.  They now rank 32nd in total defense allowing 419.2 yards per game and 30th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are without three defensive linemen including DeForest Buckner, they are without their best CB in JuJu Brents and they are without another linebacker.

The Titans are coming off their bye week and in line for their best offensive output of the season.  Bye weeks are very beneficial to first-year head coaches like Brian Callahan.  He gets Will Levis back from injury this week, and Levis will look like Montana up against this Indianapolis defense.  The Titans should be able to name their number against this Colts stop unit.

The Colts have a boom or bust offense, and I believe they are worse off with Anthony Richardson than Joe Flacco.  They are expected to start Richardson this week.  They will be without star RB Jonathan Taylor, and their top two receivers in Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs are both questionable.  Injuries have really decimated the Colts in the early going.

The Titans are fully healthy coming out of their bye and they get back their best defensive player in DE Jeffrey Simmons, who is one of the most underrated defenders in the entire NFL.  Defense has been a bright spot for the Titans, who rank 1st in the NFL at 243.8 yards per game allowed and 2nd at 4.6 yards per play.  They upgraded their defense big time, and I expect they'll get multiple turnovers in this game to change the game to their favor.  Bet the Titans on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Commanders +7

What more do the Washington Commanders have to do to get some respect? They clearly aren't getting any this week as 7-point road underdogs to the Baltimore Ravens and we'll take advantage once again.

The Commanders are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat the Giants 21-18 on seven field goals and never punted.  The beat the Bengals 38-33 on the road and never punted.  They beat the Cardinals 42-14 on the road as 3.5-point dogs.  And last week they crushed the Browns 34-13 at home as 3-point favorites.

Jayden Daniels is on the best rookies in recent memory, completing 77.1% of his passes for 1,135 yards and 4 TD with only 2 INT, while also rushing for 300 yards and 4 TD while averaging 5.3 per carry.  He is making all the right decisions, and Kliff Kingsbury is proving his chops as an offensive coordinator in this league.

While the offense is getting all the hype, the improvement of Dan Quinn's defense has been impressive the last two weeks.  They held the Cardinals to just 14 points and the Browns to just 13 points in consecutive weeks.  I don't expect them to stop the Ravens, but I expect them to get enough stops to keep Daniels and company in the game for four quarters.

This is a massive letdown spot for the Ravens. They fought back from three double-digit deficits in the 2H to beat the Bengals 41-38 (OT) on the road last week.  They are a tired team, while the Commanders should be fresh off two straight blowout wins.  The Commanders are as healthy as any team in the NFL right now to boot.

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens tend to have letdowns in these spots when they are favored by more than 3 points.  In fact, Jackson is 11-21 ATS as a home favorite of -3.5 or higher in his career.  We saw them lose outright as 8.5-point favorites to the Raiders earlier this season.  Bet the Commanders Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Commanders/Ravens OVER 51.5

Jayden Daniels is on the best rookies in recent memory, completing 77.1% of his passes for 1,135 yards and 4 TD with only 2 INT, while also rushing for 300 yards and 4 TD while averaging 5.3 per carry.  He is making all the right decisions, and Kliff Kingsbury is proving his chops as an offensive coordinator in this league.

Daniels leads a Washington offense that ranks 1st in scoring at 31.0 points per game, 4th in total offense at 392.6 yards per game and 3rd at 6.5 yards per play.  The Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team because they have a poor defense, allowing 6.0 yards per play which ranks 27th in the NFL.

The Baltimore Ravens have an elite offense as well this season ranking 2nd in scoring at 29.4 points per game, 1st in total offense at 447.6 yards per game and 1st at 6.9 yards per play.  The Ravens rank 25th in the NFL allowing 6.0 yards per play defensively.  Both offenses should have their way Sunday in what will likely be the biggest shootout of the week.  

The Ravens are 4-1 OVER in all games this season and the Commanders are 4-1 OVER in all games this season as well.  Both are dead nuts OVER teams.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Jaguars/Bears NFL London No-Brainer on OVER 44

The Chicago Bears picked up the tempo last week with a season-high 36% of their snaps coming out of no-huddle.  They now have the 2nd-highest no-huddle rate in the NFL and it is working as Caleb Williams has looking much more comfortable the last three weeks.

Williams threw for 363 yards against the Colts three weeks ago.  He led the Bears to 24 points against the Rams two weeks ago, and last week he led the Bears to a season-high 36 points and 424 total yards.

Of course, the Colts, Rams and Panthers have three of the worst defenses in the NFL.  But now Williams gets another soft defense in the Jaguars, who rank 30th in scoring defense at 28.6 points per game allowed, 31st in total defense at 393.4 yards per game and 31st at 6.2 yards per play allowed.  They allow points on 50% of their drives and have allowed the most 20-plus yard plays in the NFL this season.

The Jaguars are going more man-to-man this season and it's not working as they do not have the personnel to do it, especially in the secondary.  They are missing their best cover corner in Tyson Campbell due to injury, which is a big part of the problem.  I expect Williams to have a field day against a Jacksonville defense that allowed 34 points to the Colts and 47 to the Bills.

The Jaguars had their best offensive output of the season last week with 37 points and 497 total yards against the Colts.  Reinforcements are on the way as both TE Evan Engram and WR Gabe Davis are expected to return from injury this week.  Now the Jaguars are at full strength on offense.

They face a Chicago defense that has been good this season, but one that is dealing with a ton of injuries heading into London.  SS Jaquan Brisker is out, CB Tyrique Stevenson is doubtful, and his backup Terell Smith is out.  Trevor Lawrence should be able to take advantage of this Chicago secondary with all the key pieces they will be missing.  This total of 44 is too low for this game Sunday morning.  Bet the OVER in London.

20* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Hawaii +21.5

The Boise State Broncos are getting a lot of hype right now with a 4-1 start and their lone loss coming to Oregon.  RB Ashton Jeanty is now the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy as well.  With all this hype comes expectations that are very difficult to live up to, and I'll play against them and side with the value on home underdog Hawaii catching more than three touchdowns as a result.

This is a tough spot for Boise State playing for a 4th consecutive week and now having to travel the the island.  Their last three games were at home, and now they have to go on the road where they barely beat Georgia Southern 56-45 and lost to Oregon in their other two road games.

Hawaii is 2-1 at home this season with a 3-point loss to UCLA in their lone defeat.  The Warriors are the much fresher team after having a bye two weeks ago before losing 27-24 at San Diego State last week.  QB Brayden Schager is coming off his two best games of the season throwing for 374 yards and 4 TD in a 36-7 win over Northern Iowa at home and throwing for 272 yards and 3 TD in that loss to San Diego State last week.

Hawaii actually has the better defense in this game.  The Warriors are only allowing 309.4 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.  They have been very good against the run, allowing 120.6 rushing yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry.  That will be key in trying to stop Jeanty and this Boise State rushing attack.

Boise State's defense leaves a lot to be desired and is the clear weakness of the team.  The Broncos allow 402.6 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play.  They have been horrible against the pass, allowing 278.8 passing yards per game and 8.2 yards per attempt.  That makes this a great matchup for the Warriors with their ability to throw the ball on offense and stop the run on defense.  They will never be out of this game.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on West Virginia +3

This is a battle for first place in the Big 12 as the 2-0 Iowa State Cyclones visit the 2-0 West Virginia Mountaineers.  I think the wrong team is favored here.  This is going to be a very hostile atmosphere at night for an 8:00 EST start time, and the Mountaineers are going with their sweet black coal rush jerseys.

Iowa State has benefited from a soft schedule during its 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS start this season.  The five wins have come against North Dakota, Arkansas State, Houston, Baylor and Iowa.  They have really faced an easy schedule of opposing offenses, and this will be by far their toughest defensive test of the season against this high-octane WVU offense.  The Mountaineers average 6.4 yards pre play, 5.3 yards per rush and 8.3 yards per pass attempt which are all elite numbers.

Iowa State was life and death with Baylor at home last week trailing 21-19 early in the 3rd quarter.  The Cyclones needed a big finish to pull away.  It cost them a lot of injuries on defense as they were down to two starters on defense at one point in the 2H last week.  And these defensive injuries the Cyclones are dealing with aren't getting factored into the spread enough this week.

While the Cyclones will be playing for a 4th consecutive week, the Mountaineers just had a bye two weeks ago before crushing Oklahoma State 38-14 on the road last week.  They made easy work of the Cowboys outgaining them 558 to 225 for the game, or by 333 total yards.  They were able to coast in the 2H after jumping out to a 31-7 halftime lead, and they will still be fresh for this game Saturday as a result.

Home-field advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  West Virginia has played the much tougher schedule and the losses to Pitt and Penn State don't look so bad now considering those two teams are a combined 10-0.  I like the Mountaineers to pull off the upset at home Saturday night.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* Ole Miss/LSU ABC ANNIHILATOR on LSU +3.5

I love the spot for the LSU Tigers this week.  They return from their bye, getting two full weeks to rest and prepare to beat the Ole Miss Rebels.  This will also be a night game in Baton Rouge, and there's arguably no bigger home-field advantage in all of college football than a night game in Baton Rouge.

Ole Miss is a tired team playing for a 7th consecutive week.  The Rebels are coming off two physical games against Kentucky and South Carolina the last two weeks.  After getting upset 20-17 by Kentucky as 15.5-point home favorites, they rebounded nicely with a 27-3 win at South Carolina last week.

But that was a misleading win against South Carolina.  They only outgained the Gamecocks by 112 yards.  Their offense pretty much died in the second half after losing star receiver Tre Harris to injury.  They scored just 3 points after intermission.  Harris means everything to their offense as he leads the nation with 52 receptions for 885 yards and 5 TD.  He is doubtful to be back this week, making LSU's task defensively to stop this Ole Miss offense much easier.

LSU is a perfect 7-0 SU in the last seven meetings in Baton Rouge and at least 5-0 ATS in the last five home meetings in this series.  I fully expect the Tigers to win this game outright given their rest and preparation advantages coming in.  Brian Kelly is 15-2 SU & 12-5 ATS in his last 17 home games off a bye.  Bet LSU Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UTSA/Rice OVER 50.5

UTSA is a dead nuts OVER team that plays fast and plays zero defense.  The Roadrunners rank 9th in tempo with 22.6 seconds in between snaps.  They rank 110th in scoring defense allowing 31.6 points per game, and they have benefitted from getting to play Holy Cross and Kennesaw State.

UTSA's offense got going last time out with 456 total yards against a pretty good East Carolina defense after scoring 45 points on Holy Cross.  This is a Rice defense that has faced an easy schedule of opposing offenses, but still allowed 34 points to Sam Houston State, 33 to Houston and 37 to Army.

Rice's offense has been held in check this season due to playing a tough schedule of opposing defenses.  They finally got a reprieve last time out and put up 463 total yards against Charlotte with 209 rushing and 254 passing.  I like Rice QB EJ Warner, who meant everything to Temple last year, and he should have a big game against this UTSA defense.  Rice also plays faster than average ranking 59th in tempo at 26.1 seconds in between snaps.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Florida/Tennessee ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Florida +14.5

The Florida Gators have been impressive since a 41-17 loss to Miami in the opener.  That loss has kept the Gators undervalued since, and they have responded by going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  The lone loss came to Texas A&M by a final of 33-20, and that loss doesn't look so bad now with A&M blowing out Missouri last week.

The Gators won 45-28 at Mississippi State as 7-point favorites following the loss to A&M.  They had a bye the next week, then returned last week and beat UCF 24-13 as 1-point home underdogs.  That win was mighty impressive from a defensive standpoint as UCF came into that game leading the country in rushing.  Florida held UCF to 108 rushing yards on 40 carries and 273 total yards overall.

Tennessee has been overvalued since a 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start against a very soft schedule of Chattanooga, NC State, Kent State and Oklahoma.  The 25-15 win over Oklahoma was far from impressive considering the Sooners were playing with their backup QB and missing almost all of their wide receivers due to injury.  They only managed 345 total yards against Oklahoma's defense.

Last week, Tennessee was upset 19-14 at Arkansas as 14-point favorites.  The Razorbacks outgained the Vols 434 to 334, or by 100 total yards, so there was nothing fluky about it.  That's the second straight game Tennessee's offense has been held in check by a respectable defense, and with the way this Florida defense is trending, I think the Gators can hold them in check as well.  They will stop the run and force the Vols to try and beat them through the air.

Florida hasn't lost by more than 14 points to Tennessee since 1992 which was 32 meetings ago.  That makes for a 31-0 system backing the Gators pertaining to this 14.5-point spread.  The Gators are 17-2 SU in the last 19 meetings.  Bet Florida Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Mississippi State +34

The Georgia Bulldogs are just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games overall since the start of last season.  They are a team that gets a lot of hype for what they did in previous seasons winning the national title, and with that hype comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are very difficult to live up to.

Georgia is 1-4 ATS this season and has no business being a 34-point favorite against Mississippi State this week.  This is the ultimate sandwich spot coming off three straight tough SEC games against Kentucky, Alabama and Auburn and with an even bigger showdown with Texas on deck on the road next week.  They won't be concerned with Mississippi State this week at all.

That's going to make it very difficult to cover this 34-point spread.  The Bulldogs want to just get in and get out with a win and try and keep everyone healthy for that game against Texas considering injuries and suspensions have been a big part of Georgia's early struggles this season.

I like the spot for Mississippi State.  The Bulldogs are come off their bye week, and bye weeks are much more beneficial to first-year head coaches like Jeff Lebby.  He will get the most out of this extra week with his new team.  I also like what I saw from the Bulldogs going into their bye week as they only lost 35-13 at Texas as 37-point underdogs.

Instead of playing at a break-neck pace like they had prior, they slowed things down with freshman QB Michael Van Buren running the offense.  He played well with 144 passing yards on 23 attempts.  I think Mississippi State will deploy the same strategy against Georgia, slowing the game down to try and make it competitive.  Van Buren is now 19 of 34 passing for 244 yards against Texas and Florida, which are two very good defenses.  He won't be phased by Georgia.

24 of the last 25 meetings between Georgia and Mississippi State were decided by 30 points or less, making for a 24-1 system backing the underdog in this one.  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

15* Arizona/BYU FOX ANNIHILATOR on BYU -3.5

The BYU Cougars are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season with upset road wins over SMU and Baylor, as well as an upset home win over Kansas State.  They should be more than 3.5-point home favorites against Arizona this week.

BYU had a bye last week, so the Cougars have had two full weeks to prepare for Arizona and to rest up and get healthy.  Provo is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and the Cougars will have an even bigger home-field advantage with fans excited about the fact that they are in the Top 25 and a Big 12 title contenter.

The spot is much worse for Arizona coming off a pair of physical games at Utah and at home against Texas Tech.  They are getting too much love for their win at Utah, which bogged down in the red zone and blew several scoring opportunities.  They lost 28-22 at home to Texas Tech last week.

These teams have a common opponent that shows BYU is by far the superior team.  Arizona lost 31-7 at Kansas State, while BYU crushed Kansas State 38-9 at home.  The Cougars have the much better defense in this one as well.  They allow just 15.8 points per game, 292.6 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play.  Arizona allows 23.6 points per game, 350.8 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play this season.  Bet BYU Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh -3

The Pittsburgh Panthers are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season.  They will eventually be overvalued, but this isn't the spot this week.  The Panthers have impressive wins over Cincinnati, West Virginia and North Carolina with two of those wins coming on the road.  They just had a bye two weeks ago so they will be fresh and ready to go this week.

But this is more of a play against California than it is a play on Pitt.  The Bears had ESPN's College Gameday on campus last week with the Miami Hurricanes coming to town.  They looked well on their way to an upset victory leading 35-10 in the 3rd quarter, but that's when it all went downhill.

The Bears blew that 25-point lead and lost 39-38 on a last-second TD by Miami, which scored the final 21 points of the game in the final 10 minutes to escape with yet another victory.  I just don't see how Cal gets back up off the mat after that loss.  It's the type of loss that beats a team twice.

Now the Bears have the long flight East to Pittsburgh after playing a late-night game that didn't get over until after midnight Pacific time.  They have a tired defense that was on the field for 38 minutes and 86 plays against Miami.  Now they must face a Pitt offense that runs the 4th-fastest tempo in the entire country.

Five-star QB and Alabama transfer Eli Holstein has thrived in this new up-tempo offense.  He is competing 65.5% of his passes for 1,567 yards with a 15-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 265 yards and 3 scores.  The Bears won't have the energy to try and defense this offense, and this one has blowout written all over it.  Bet Pittsburgh Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Virginia +7.5

The Louisville Cardinals have been through the gauntlet the last three weeks with three straight games that went down to the wire against SMU, Notre Dame and Georgia Tech.  I question how much they have left in the tank for Virginia this week.

The Cavaliers had a bye two weeks ago before returning to beat Boston College 24-14 as 1.5-point home favorites last week.  Virginia improved to 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS this season and has been an undervalued commodity.  They beat Coastal Carolina 43-24 as 3.5-point road favorites going into their bye, and they beat Wake Forest 31-30 on the road.

Even in their lone loss to Maryland it was a misleading 27-13 home loss.  They were only outgained by 21 yards in the game.  The Terrapins scored 20 unanswered points in the 2H and took advantage of a +4 turnover margin against Virginia.  I like the way the Cavaliers responded in their last two games, especially after falling behind 14-0 to Boston College last week to score the final 24 points of the game.  They have a lot of confidence now and feel like they are a legit ACC contender.

Virginia is 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six meetings with Louisville with only one loss by more than 7 points.  The spot really favors the home underdog Cavaliers who are the fresher team.  This line should be much closer to PK.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

15* Tigers/Guardians ALDS ANNIHILATOR on Detroit -114

The Detroit Tigers have the Cleveland Guardians right where they want them.  They needed to steal one game to allow their ace in Tarik Skubal to pitch in two games in this series.  This has played out perfectly, and now I expect the Tigers to take Game 5 behind Skubal tonight.

Skubal ran away with the AL Cy Young this season by going 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 31 starts in the regular season with 228 K's in 192 innings.  He has carried over that success into the postseason, firing 13 shutout innings while allowing just 8 base runners.  Skubal has allowed just 2 earned runs in 20 innings in his last three starts against Cleveland after pitching 7 shutout innings with 8 K's and only 3 base runners allowed in a 3-0 victory in Game 2.

The Guardians are scrambling to find a starter and their starting pitchers have been their weakness all season due to injuries.  They just don't have a reliable starter to put opposite Skubal and will likely make this a bullpen game.  The Tigers will be ready, and they have the confidence after coming back from the dead to get to this point to win a winner-take-all Game 5.  Bet the Tigers Saturday.

15* Padres/Dodgers NLDS ANNIHILATOR on San Diego +131

No starting pitcher has owned the Dodgers quite like Yu Darvish.  The Padres are in good hands with Darvish going into Game 5 to take this series, and they should not be underdogs with him on the mound.  That's especially the case with Yoshinobu Yamamoto starting opposite him tonight.

Darvish is 5-5 with a 2.27 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 15 career starts against the Dodgers.  He has held them to one earned run in 14 innings in his last two starts against them this season.  That includes one earned run in 7 innings in a 10-2 victory in Game 2.

Yamamoto was the Game 1 starter and he allowed 5 earned runs in 3 innings.  Yamamoto has now allowed 11 earned runs and 3 homers in 9 innings in three starts against the Padres this season for an 11.00 ERA.  He has also allowed 11 earned runs in 11 innings in his last three starts this season with two of those starts coming against the lowly Rockies.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Padres Friday.

20* Big Ten TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Northwestern/Maryland OVER 45

Maryland is a dead nuts OVER team this season.  The Terrapins are 4-1 OVER in their five games with 51 or more combined points in four of the five.  That includes their 42-28 loss to Indiana last time out that saw 70 combined points.

The Terrapins boast an offense that puts up 451.4 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play including 304.8 passing yards per game, which ranks 17th in the country.  QB Billy Edwards has been better than expected, completing 72.3% of his passes for 1,444 yards with an 11-to-2 TD/INT ratio.  This is a poor Maryland defense that allowed 27 points to Michigan State, 20 to Villanova and 42 to Indiana.

Northwestern has taken a step back defensively this season and just found itself in a 41-24 shootout last week against Indiana that saw 65 combined points.  QB Lausch has taken over as starting QB and actually gives the Wildcats the threat of the pass.  He threw for 243 yards and 2 TD against a very good Indiana defense last week, while also rushing for 34 yards on 9 carries.

This has been an OVER series with the OVER going 3-1 in the last four meetings with 46 or more combined points in all four, and 55 or more in three of them.  Conditions look perfect for a shootout Friday night with no wind or rain in the forecast.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* 49ers/Seahawks NFC West No-Brainer on San Francisco -3

I like backing elite teams who are motivated.  That will be the case for the San Francisco 49ers Thursday night when they travel to face the Seattle Seahawks.  The 49ers sit at 2-3 on the season but should be 4-1 at worst and possibly 5-0.  If they had the record they deserved, they would be more than 3-point favorites here.

The 49ers absolutely blew two games in the 4th quarter to the Rams and Cardinals.  They led the Cardinals 23-10 at halftime last week and lost 24-23.  They led the Rams 24-14 in the final seven minutes and lost 27-24.  They also lost 23-17 to the Vikings on the road despite outgaining them.

Despite their 2-3 record, the 49ers are clearly still one of the best teams in the NFL when you dive into the numbers.  They rank 2nd in total offense at 407.4 yards per game and 2nd at 6.5 yards per play.  They rank 10th in total defense allowing 307.8 yards per game, so they are outgaining opponents by 100 yards per game.  They have also gotten healthier in recent weeks and are very healthy heading into this game with Seattle.

The Seahawks were overvalued after a 3-0 start against the weakest schedule in the league beating the Broncos, Patriots and Dolphins.  I successfully faded them the last two weeks backing the Lions -4 in a 42-29 win over the Seahawks and the Giants +7 in a 29-20 win over Seattle.  I am fading them again this week for many of the same reasons.

This Seattle defense is dealing with a ton of injuries, and their lack of talent and depth has really shown the last two weeks.  They allowed 42 points to the Lions as Jared Goff went a perfect 18-of-18 passing.  They allowed 29 points and 420 total yards to a Giants team last week that was missing WR Malik Nabers and RB Devin Singletary, arguably their two best playmakers on offense.

The Seahawks are without LB Nowsu, LB Onujiogu and FS Reed II.  LB Hall, DT Murhpy and CB Woolen all missed practice on Tuesday and are doubtful.  S Love is limited and will likely play.  Now the Seahawks are on a short week here and gassed defensively after being on the field for over 37 minutes against the Giants on Sunday.  They gave up 175 rushing yards against a Giants team that previously could not run the football.  

Now they must try to tackle the physical Jordan Mason, who has 536 rushing yards and 5.1 per carry through five games in Christian McCaffrey's absence.  The Seahawks got to face four poor offenses in five games and we saw what the Lions did to them scoring 42 points.  The 49ers are on the Lions' level offensively if not better.  I just don't see Seattle getting many stops in this game, and the 49ers will get enough stops to cover this short number.

The 49ers are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with all five wins coming by 8 points or more.  Bet the 49ers Thursday.

15* Yankees/Royals ALDS ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7.5

The highest-scoring game of this series was Game 1 when Gerrit Cole went up against Michael Wacha.  It was a 6-5 final as both starters got rocked, and it will be more of the same in Game 4 tonight.

Cole allowed 4 runs, 3 earned and 9 base runners in 5 innings to the Royals in Game 1.  He has now allowed 10 earned runs and 3 homers in 17 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Royals.

Wacha allowed 3 earned runs and 7 base runners in 4 innings in Game 1.  Wacha has now allowed 8 earned runs, 3 homers and 22 base runners in 17 innings in his last three starts against the Yankees.  Bet the OVER in Game 4 Thursday.

20* Phillies/Mets NLDS No-Brainer on OVER 7.5

This total is too low for these two offenses up against these two starting pitchers tonight.  Both offenses are scoring 4.8 runs per game this season.  The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings this season with 8 or more combined runs in six of those seven, including in each of the first three games in this series.

Ranger Suarez has been an absolute gas can down the stretch for the Phillies.  Suearez has allowed 15 earned runs and 38 base runners in 17 1/3 innings in his last four starts.  The OVER is 3-0-1 in his last four starts with 8 or more combined runs in all four.  The OVER is 3-0 in Suarez's last three starts against the Mets with 9 or more combined runs in all three.

Jose Quintana pitches to contact with just 135 K's in 170 1/3 innings this season.  The OVER is 3-0 in Quintana's last three starts against the Phillies this season with 11 or more combined runs in all three.  Both lineups have been great against left-handed starters this season to boot.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Phillies/Mets NLDS No-Brainer on OVER 7

This total is too low for these two offenses up against these two starting pitchers tonight.  Both offenses are scoring 4.8 runs per game this season.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings this season with 8 or more combined runs in five of those six, including in each of the first two games of this series.

Aaron Nola struggled down the stretch allowing 16 earned runs and 6 homers in 27 innings in his last five starts for a 5.33 ERA.  Nola allowed 6 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 1/3 innings of an 11-3 loss to the Mets in his last start against them on September 13th.

Sean Manaea allowed 8 earned runs, 2 homers and 15 base runners in 8 2/3 innings in his last two starts for the Mets.  Manaea has not enjoyed facing the Phillies, allowing 9 earned runs and 4 homers in 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts against them this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Saints/Chiefs ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 43.5

The Chiefs were already handcuffed offensively when it was announced that WR Hollywood Brown would miss the entire season due to shoulder surgery.  Now they lost their best weapon in WR Rashee Rice to a knee injury and he will not be available for Week 5.  They were already without RB Isaiah Pacheco, who was the heart and soul of the offense.

We saw this last year with the Chiefs limited by injuries offensively having to rely on their defense on their way to winning the Super Bowl.  But that was when they had Rice and Pacheco leading the way.  Now they are without both, and the Chiefs are going to have to rely on an aging Travis Kelce, a rookie in Xavier Worthy and several replacement-level receivers moving forward unless they make a trade.  They are relying on defense now more than ever.

This Kansas City defense has been dynamite in paving the way for a 4-0 start for the Chiefs.  They rank 9th allowing 18.0 points per game despite facing both the Bengals and Ravens, who have two of the best offenses in the NFL.  Now they should have their way with a New Orleans Saints offense that is banged up along the offensive line.  The strength of Kansas City's defense is their front seven, and they will make life very difficult for Drew Brees and company for four quarters in this one.

The Saints have a very good defense and it's what keeps them competitive every year under defensive-minded head coach, Dennis Allen.  The Saints rank 7th in scoring defense at 17.5 points per game.  Keep in mind that number would be even lower if not for two fluky non-offensive touchdowns by the Falcons last week with a tipped interception that was returned for a TD and a muffed punt that was recovered in the end zone for another TD.

Given the Saints having one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL without their best offensive lineman in C Erik McCoy, and the Chiefs being without all of their best weapons, this has the makings of a defensive slug fest Monday night.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Tigers/Guardians ALDS ANNIHILATOR on Detroit -124

The Detroit Tigers are positioned perfectly to upset the Cleveland Guardians in this series. Tarik Skubal will go in Game 2 tonight and in Game 5 if necessary. I trust the AL Cy Young winner to get the job done tonight and get the Tigers back in this series.

Skubal is 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 31 starts this season with 228 K's in 192 innings. He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 15 of his last 16 starts, including 2 earned runs or fewer in 12 of those. He has allowed 2 earned runs in 13 innings in his last two starts against Cleveland.

The Guardians don't have a lot of strength at the top of their rotation, they rely heavily on their bullpen. That's why they are giving Matthew Boyd a start in Game 2, and it's hard to trust this former Tiger. Boyd has allowed 9 runs, 5 earned, and 23 base runners in 11 innings in his last three starts coming in. Bet the Tigers Monday.

20* Cowboys/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh ML -125

The Pittsburgh Steelers have one of the best defenses in the NFL while the Dallas Cowboys have one of the worst.  That's the biggest reason I am on the Steelers on the Money Line Sunday night as they host the Cowboys.

The Steelers rank 2nd in scoring defense at 13.2 points per game, 4th in total defense at 261.2 yards per game and 6th at 5.1 yards per play allowed.  The Cowboys rank 26th in scoring defense at 26.0 points per game, 26th in total defense at 355.2 yards per game and 23rd at 5.8 yards per play allowed.  The Cowboys are 13th in total offense at 330.8 yards per game while the Steelers are 18th at 317.8 yards per game, so there's not as big of a gap between these offenses as what is being perceived.

The Cowboys were already terrible defensively when they had their two best pass rushers in Micah Parsons and Dexter Lawrence healthy.  But now that's not even the case any more as the Cowboys lost both Lawrence and Parsons to injuries last week against the Giants.  Both will not play this week.  CB Calen Carson is questionable, and they were already without their best CB in DaRon Bland to the IR.  Things are getting worse before they get better for this Dallas defense.

We saw the Cowboys get shredded by a Ravens team that runs a similar read-option offense to the Steelers two weeks ago.  The Ravens rushed for 274 yards on them.  Justin Fields and company will be able to get whatever they want on the ground.  Fields is playing well, completing 70.6% of his passes with a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 145 yards and 3 scores through four games.  He threw for 312 yards and a TD in trying to lead the comeback against the Colts last week to prove he can do it when he has to throw it.

The Cowboys were fortunate to beat the lowly Giants 20-15 last week.  Daniel Jones didn't get much help from his receivers with several key drops that prevented points.  He went 29-of-40 passing for 281 yards against the Cowboys.  The Giants held this Dallas offense in check as well with just 293 total yards.  This is a one-dimensional Dallas offense that cannot run the football, which bodes well for the Steelers, who rank 8th in the NFL in pass defense allowing just 174.5 yards per game through the air.  This is a terrible matchup for the injury-ravaged Cowboys.  Mike Tomlin is 8-2 ATS in his last 10 games off a loss.  Bet the Steelers on the Money Line Sunday night.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Giants +6

This is a terrible spot for the Seattle Seahawks.  They just played the late game on Monday Night Football against the Detroit Lions.  Now they have to travel back to Seattle and play on a short week hosting the New York Giants Sunday afternoon.

Making matters worse is this is a sandwich spot for the Seahawks.  They have an even bigger game on deck against the 49ers on Thursday and some of their focus will be on that game, especially when it comes to handling all their injuries.  They won't be fully focused on the Giants this week, and as a result I think they are on upset alert.

This is a very favorable spot for the Giants, who played the Cowboys last Thursday.  So they have had a mini bye week coming into this one to get healthy and prepared to face the Seahawks.  Sitting at 1-3 on the season, the Giants are looking at this game as a must-win.  The Seahawks sit at 3-1 and alone in first place in the NFC West, so they aren't looking at this as a must-win.

The Seahawks are a fraudulent team that got off to a 3-0 start against the easiest schedule in the NFL.  They beat the Broncos and rookie QB Bo Nix 26-20 as 6.5-point home favorites in Week 1.  They needed OT to beat the Patriots 23-20 as 3-point road favorites in Week 2.  Then they had to fly all the way back to Seattle and took advantage of a short-handed Dolphins team in a 24-3 victory as 4-point favorites.  The Dolphins were starting Skyler Thompson at QB, and he got hurt and they were down to third-stringer Tim Boyle in the second half.

That's why I faded them last week and took the Lions -4.  It was a lot of travel for the Seahawks and they weren't as good as their 3-0 record.  That proved to be the case as the Lions beat them 42-29.  Jared Goff went a perfect 18-of-18 passing for 292 yards and two touchdowns against what is a really banged up, tired Seattle defense that is lacking depth.

Five starters are questionable heading into this one in DE Leonard Williams, LB Uchenna Nwosu, LB Jerome Baker, LB Boye Mafe and FS Julian Love.  FS Jerrick Reed II is out, NT Cameron Young is out and DE Byron Murphy II is questionable.  The Seahawks have a very poor offensive line, and the strength of the Giants is their defensive line, so they will make life tough on Geno Smith in this one.

I like what I've seen from Daniel Jones the last three weeks.  After a 28-6 loss to Minnesota in Week 1 which doesn't look as bad now with the Vikings sitting at 4-0 with wins over the Packers, 49ers and Texans since, the Giants have been much more competitive the last three weeks.  

They lost 21-18 at Washington only because they lost their FG kicker to injury prior to the game, and it cost them at least a shot at OT and likely a win.  They won 21-15 at Cleveland as 6.5-point dogs in Week 2 even after spotting the Browns a TD to start the game after a fumbled KO return.  They gave the Cowboys all they wanted last week in a 20-15 loss as 5.5-point home dogs, and drops by New York receivers were the culprit.  They held Dallas' high-powered offense to less than 300 total yards.

The Giants have historically been a much better road team than a home team over the last decade-plus, and that's the case again this season.  They were very competitive against the Commanders and Browns on the road and performed poorly against the Vikings and Cowboys at home.  The New York fans just aren't that gracious to this team at home, and sometimes it's just better for these players to get away from it by going on the road.

The Giants are extremely healthy compared to most teams at this point in the season.  Star WR Malik Nabers did suffer a concussion against the Cowboys last week, but the average time missed is 8 days for concussions, and since they played last Thursday they will have 10 days in between games.  He should be back, and he has made all the difference for this offense.  Nabers has 35 receptions for 386 yards and 3 TD through four games.  The Giants are good enough to give the Seahawks a run for their money considering the good spot for them and the awful spot for the home team.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Commanders -3

The Washington Commanders delivered 16 straight scoring drives beginning from Week 1 through their first two drives of Week 4 against Arizona.  They have punted just once in the last three weeks.  They have three straight wins over the Giants, Bengals and Cardinals and they are much better than they get credit for.

Jayden Daniels has delivered more scoring drives (23) than incompletions (19) through his first four games.  Daniels set the NFL record with 82.1% completions through the first four weeks of the season.  He has thrown for 897 yards with a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.5 yards per attempt, and he has rushed for 218 yards and 4 scores to boot.  Daniels is making all the right decisions right now.

The same cannot be said for Deshaun Watson and the Cleveland Browns.  They are 1-3 this season with their lone win coming against the only remaining winless team in the Jacksonville Jaguars.  They weren't able to beat a depleted Raiders team last week that was without their two best players in WR Davante Adamas and DE Maxx Crosby.  They lost 20-16 despite getting lucky fumble return TD on defense.

Watson has been abysmal.  He is averaging just 4.9 yards per attempt with a 4-to-3 TD/INT ratio.  Of course, it hurts that his offensive line is more banged up than any other offensive line in the league.  Seven offensive linemen are on the injury report as they have been without LT Jedrick Willis, RT Zack Conklin and now they lost C Ethan Pocic to an injury against the Raiders.  It's possible some guys return this week, but even if they do I still like the Commanders.

Washington has compiled a 3-1 record despite playing three of their first four games on the road.  They are 1-0 at home scoring on all seven drives against the Giants.  Fans are thirsty for a winner in Washington, and they will turn out to support Daniels and company in a big way Sunday afternoon.  It will be the best home-field advantage the Commanders have had since Robert Griffin III was stealing the show in his prime.

Cleveland had the worst scoring defense in the entire NFL on the road last season.  The Raiders had the worst rushing attack in the NFL heading into their game with Cleveland last week.  They promptly rushed for 152 yards and 5.2 per carry against Cleveland last week.  The Commanders are going to be able to run it up the middle on the Browns, and that is going to open the field for Daniels to continue to thrive.  

Oddsmakers are simply too slow to adjust to the fact that the Commanders are a contender, while the Browns are a dead team walking with all their injuries. It seems as though teammates don't even like Deshaun Watson, which is understandable.  This line should be much closer to -7 than -3.  Bet the Commanders Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Panthers/Bears OVER 42

The Carolina Panthers are a dead nuts OVER team right now with Andy Dalton at quarterback and arguably the worst defense in the NFL.  The Panthers combined for 58 points with the Bengals last week and 58 points with the Raiders in the game prior in Dalton's two starts at quarterback.

They put up 36 points on the Raiders with 437 total yards as Dalton threw for 319 yards and 3 touchdowns.  They put up 24 points on the Bengals behind 375 total yards and 220 passing and 2 touchdowns from Darnold.  Simply put, Dave Canales finally has a competent quarterback to run his offense.

But the Panthers are going to have to win shootouts if they are going to be competitive.  They rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense allowing 32.2 points per game.  Things are getting worse before they get better due to injuries.  They just lost LB Shaq Thomspn to injury last week.  Fellow LB Josey Jewell is questionable after suffering an injury.  NT Shy Tuttle is questionable after missing the last couple games.  DE Derrick Brown is on IR, and four key secondary pieces are on IR.

Chicago QB Caleb Williams is in line for his best game yet this week.  He went 17-of-23 passing against a bad Rams defense last week and led the Bears to 24 points.  He just got WR Keenan Allen back from injury and now has his full compliment of weapons.  De'Andre Swift finally got going with 93 rushing yards on 16 attempts last week.  I think the Bears can get to 24-plus in this one, and the Panthers should get 20-plus, thus this 42-point total is too low.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Browns/Commanders OVER 44

The Washington Commanders delivered 16 straight scoring drives beginning from Week 1 through their first two drives of Week 4 against Arizona.  They have punted just once in the last three weeks.  They have three straight wins over the Giants, Bengals and Cardinals and they are much better than they get credit for.

Jayden Daniels has delivered more scoring drives (23) than incompletions (19) through his first four games.  Daniels set the NFL record with 82.1% completions through the first four weeks of the season.  He has thrown for 897 yards with a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.5 yards per attempt, and he has rushed for 218 yards and 4 scores to boot.  Daniels is making all the right decisions right now.

Cleveland had the worst scoring defense in the entire NFL on the road last season.  The Raiders had the worst rushing attack in the NFL heading into their game with Cleveland last week.  They promptly rushed for 152 yards and 5.2 per carry against Cleveland last week.  The Commanders are going to be able to run it up the middle on the Browns, and that is going to open the field for Daniels to continue to thrive.

No question this Cleveland offense hasn't looked good, and a lot of that has to do with offensive line injuries and missing TD David Njoku.  They could get some pieces back on the offensive line this week, plus Njoku is expected to return.  They should have their best offensive output of the season against a Washington defense that ranks 25th in scoring at 25.5 points per game, 27th in total defense at 357.0 yards per game and 31st at 6.4 yards per play allowed.  

Washington is a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  They are 3-1 OVER in all games this season with 56 or more combined points in the three overs.  They would be 4-0 OVER if not for the Giants losing their kicker in a game that would have been tied 21-21 at the end of regulation if the Giants kicked extra points on all three of their TD's.  I see Washington getting to at least 27 points and Cleveland getting to at least 20 in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. 

15* Padres/Dodgers FS1 ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7.5

Two of the best offenses in baseball square off here when the San Diego Padres meet the Los Angeles Dodgers for Game 1 of this series Saturday. This total of 7.5 is too low for a game involving these two offenses.

Dylan Cease just faced the Dodgers on September 25th. He allowed 3 earned runs and 8 base runners in 5 innings, and the Dodgers will get to him again tonight using that familiarity to their advantage after just seeing him.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto has allowed 6 earned runs in 8 innings in his last two starts. Yamamoto has not been able to figure out the Padres, allowing 8 earned runs in 6 innings in two starts against them in 2024. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on Hawaii/San Diego State OVER 46.5

San Diego State made a great hire bringing in one of the best offensive minds in the country in former Kent State head coach Sean Lewis.  He is the architect of the 'Flash Fast' offense that turned around the Golden Flashes and put their name on the map.

It was always going to take some time for these players to get accustomed to this offense, and they weren't done any favors with a brutal schedule to start facing two elite defenses in Oregon State and California in two of their first three games.

But they got a bye after those two games and grew a lot on that bye week.  They came back last week and had a solid offensive output with 364 total yards against Central Michigan.  But they allowed 452 yards to the Chippewas and this is a leaky defense that can be exposed.  That game was much lower scoring than it should have been with a 22-21 final, and I think that is providing us some line value on the OVER this week.

In fact, these teams are a combined 7-1 to the under this season, which is why this total has been set so low.  We will take advantage.  Hawaii also had a tough schedule to start with losses to UCLA and Sam Houston State, which looks vastly improved this season.  They finally got their offense going last time out in a 36-7 win over Northern Iowa.  They put up 528 total yards, and they have had a bye since to get even better.

San Diego State beat Hawaii 41-34 in an absolute shootout last year that saw 75 combined points.  All we need is 47-plus here to cash this OVER.  And a sneaky reason I'm on the OVER is because both offenses play fast.  San Diego State ranks 8th in tempo at 22.3 seconds between plays while Hawaii ranks 34th at 24.9 seconds.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Michigan/Washington NBC No-Brainer on Washington ML -145

The Washington Huskies should be 5-0 right now.  If they were 5-0 like they should be, they would be bigger favorites here against Michigan.  We'll take advantage of this line value and back the Huskies on the Money Line Saturday night.

I say Washington should be 5-0 because they lost 24-19 to Washington State on a neutral despite outgaining them 452 to 381, or by 71 total yards.  But that fluky loss was nothing compared to what happened against Rutgers on last Friday.  Washington lost 21-18 at Rutgers despite outgaining the Scarlet Knights 521 to 299, or by 222 total yards.  

The Huskies will be looking to take out their frustration on the Wolverines at home in Seattle where it will be a hostile atmosphere Saturday night.  They have one of the best home-field advantages in the country, and it's even better at night.  They also want revenge from losing to Michigan in the National Championship last year.  While both teams are down compared to those teams last year, Washington is a lot less down than Michigan is this season.

Washington has elite numbers.  The Huskies rank 20th in total offense at 469.4 yards per game and 18th at 7.2 yards per play.  They rank 10th in total defense at 249.8 yards per game and 8th at 4.1 yards per play.  QB Will Rogers is completing 74.8% of his passes for 1,354 yards with a 10-to-0 TD/INT ratio.

While Michigan's defense is solid once again, keep in mind they allowed 31 points to Texas, 24 to Minnesota, 24 to USC and 18 to Arkansas State the last four weeks.  They are 1-4 ATS, and while it's partly due to the defense taking a step back, it's mostly due to not having a quarterback or a passing game on offense.

The Wolverins rank 130th in the country in passing at 115.4 yards per game.  Their one-dimensional approach will not work against Washington, which allows just 3.7 yards per carry this season.  The Huskies will stack the box and force QB Alex Orji to try and beat them.  Orji is averaging just 3.7 yards per attempt this season.

This will be the first road game of the season for the Wolverines as they somehow were allowed to schedule five straight home games to open the season.  It will not go well for Orji and the Wolverines in Seattle Saturday night.  Bet Washington on the Money Line.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Nevada/San Jose State OVER 48.5

San Jose State's offense looks vastly improved this season.  They just put up 52 points on Washington State in an absolute OT thriller.  They now rank 38th in scoring offense at 35.5 points per game.  They also play fast ranking 21st in seconds per play, which is an over bettors' dream.

Nevada has a much better offense than most expected as well.  The Wolf Pack are averaging 379 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play.  They rush for 193.4 yards per game and 5.0 per carry, and San Jose State allows 155.2 rushing yards per game.  They will have success on the ground which will open up their improved passing game.

Nevada ranks 94th allowing 5.8 yards per play on defense.  San Jose State will keep the pedal to the metal for four quarters, and Nevada will have to try and keep up.  Both teams are fresh coming off bye weeks and will be looking to get up and down offensively.  This total should not be less than 50 given San Jose State's profile as a prolific, fast-paced offense controlling the tempo playing at home.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on West Virginia +4.5

The spot really favors the West Virginia Mountaineers in this one.  They are coming off their bye week, while Oklahoma State will be playing for a 6th consecutive week and has been through the gauntlet.  I question how much the Cowboys have left in the tank this week as a result.

Oklahoma State beat Arkansas 39-31 in OT four weeks ago despite getting outgained by nearly 300 yards.  They went on the road and beat a bad Tulsa team 45-10 three weeks ago before returning home to face Utah.  They trailed 22-3 to the Utes before making it interesting in garbage time in a misleading 22-19 loss.  And last week they were crushed 42-20 at Kansas State.

Utah and Kansas State both play a physical brand of football that takes a lot out of the opponent.  After having to face both those teams in consecutive weeks, I think Oklahoma State is battered and bruised right now and won't be ready for this fresh WVU team.  I also just think the Cowboys were grossly overvalued coming into the season and remain overvalued still today.

The Cowboys had a miracle run to the Big 12 Championship Game last year winning close game after close game.  They have been exposed this season, and really should be 2-3 instead of 3-2 because they should have lost to Arkansas.  Now with two Big 12 losses already, their chances of winning the conference title are slim to none.

Oklahoma State has no running game on offense, and they have one of the worst defenses in the country.  The Cowboys rank 126th in total defense at 480.6 yards per game allowed.  West Virginia has played a similarly difficult schedule and has much better numbers than the Cowboys.  

They lost to Penn State and Pittsburgh before topping Kansas.  They had no business losing to Pitt blowing a 10-point lead in the final three minutes.  They rebounded nicely against the Jayhawks to give them positive momentum heading into their bye, and they have all their goals in front of them at 1-0 in Big 12 play now.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Auburn +24.5

Auburn's 2-3 record has them way undervalued right now.  The Tigers are certainly one of the best 2-3 teams in the history of college football.  Their three losses all came by 10 points or less, and they had way better stats than their opponents in two of the three defeats.

Auburn ranks 23rd in the country in total offense at 466 yards per game and 8th at 7.6 yards per play.  The Tigers rank 50th in total defense at 329 yards per game and 39th at 4.8 yards per play.  So they are outgaining their opponents by 137 yards per game and a whopping 2.8 yards per play, which are the numbers of a 4-1 or 5-0 team and not one that is 2-3.  We'll take advantage of Auburn being undervalued this week.

It won't take much for Auburn to get back up off the mat this week to face Georgia, which have been the kings of college football over the last few seasons.  But it will take a lot for Georgia to get back up off the mat to face Auburn after a deflating 41-34 loss at Alabama last week.  The Bulldogs fought all they way back from a 28-0 deficit to take a 34-33 lead, only to allow another bomb and a game-winner by Alabama before throwing an INT in the end zone to end it going in for the tie.

It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.  This Georgia team just isn't as good as the one they put on the field the last three seasons.  They have offensive line problems, Carson Beck is lacking weapons and making bad throws, and their defense is leaky.  They only beat Kentucky 13-12 as 21.5-point favorites the game before Alabama.  They should not be 24.5-point favorites against this underrated Auburn team.

Auburn took Georgia to the wire last season in a 27-20 loss as 14-point home underdogs.  And Auburn is better this season than they were last year, while Georgia isn't as good.  The value is too good to pass up here.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on East Carolina/Charlotte OVER 46.5

East Carolina is a dead nuts OVER team with how fast they play.  They rank 3rd in the country in tempo averaging 21.2 seconds in between snaps.  It means their defense is going to be on the field a lot, and that defense has been exposed the last couple weeks.

They blew a 17-point lead and lost 35-24 to Liberty two weeks ago.  Last week, they gave up 456 total yards to what was a previously dead UTSA offense and were fortunate to get out with a 30-20 victory.  Charlotte is in line for one of its best offensive outputs of the season this week.

East Carolina could score a season high as well against a Charlotte defense that ranks 118th in scoring at 33.2 points per game, 121st in total defense at 453.2 yards per game and 128th at 6.7 yards per play.  It was going to take some time for this ECU offense to gel in the new Air Raid attack, and it looks like they have the last few weeks.

Both defenses are tired right now playing for a 6th consecutive week.  I think the offenses really have an advantage here in what will be a fast-paced game, and there's no way this total should be set below 50.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Indiana -13.5

Indiana is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season and would be 5-0 ATS against the opening line.  The Hoosiers are an absolute wagon this season and one of the most improved teams in the country.  They have been grossly undervalued and continue to be undervalued this week as only 13.5-point favorites against a Northwestern team that doesn't have the offense to keep up.

Indiana won its first four games by a combined score of 202-37.  The Hoosiers took a step up in class last week and handled Maryland 42-28 as 7.5-point favorites.  They won and covered despite being -4 in turnovers! That just shows the potential of this team.

Indiana has no weaknesses.  The Hoosiers rank 6th in scoring offense at 48.8 points per game, 11th in total offense at 513 yards per game and 10th at 7.6 yards per play.  They rank 19th in scoring defense at 13.0 points per game, 10th in total defense at 239.6 yards per game and 15th at 4.2 yards per play.  They are outgaining teams by nearly 300 yards per game and a whopping 3.4 yards per play.

Northwestern has another good defense this season, but the Wildcats are even worse off offensively than they were last year.  They rank 119th in scoring offense at 17.2 points per game, 121st in total offense at 294.5 yard per game and 121st at 4.6 yards per play.  They have faced three poor offenses in Miami Ohio, Duke and Eastern Illinois before losing 24-5 to Washington.  

The Wildcats managed just 102 total yards and gave up 391 to Washington, so that was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  I think we see a similar blowout here in Indiana's favor, except the Hoosiers will score more than 24.  They should be fully focused knowing they get to rest next week with a bye on deck.  The Wildcats have one of the worst home-field advantages in the country.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Army -10.5

The Army Black Knights are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season and taking no prisoners.  They went 6-6 each of the last two seasons and were not invited to a bowl game.  That's why there will be no letdowns with this team until they get that elusive 7th win.

Army beat Lehigh 42-7 as a 32-point favorite, FAU 24-7 as a 1-point dog, Rice 37-14 as a 7.5-point favorite and Temple 42-14 as 11.5-point favorites.  There was nothing fluky about any of those wins.  They have one of their best offenses in program history, plus one of their best defenses as well.

Army ranks 1st in the entire country in rushing at 371.2 yards per game, but they also have more of a passing element this season averaging 73.2 passing yards per game and 9.5 yards per attempt.  QB Bryson Daily is one of the best QB's in school history.  He has rushed for 492 yards and 8 TD while averaging 6.0 per carry, and this team really follows him into battle with how big of a warrior he is seeking out contact.

I've been equally impressed with this Army defense.  The Black Knights 7th in scoring defense at 10.5 points per game and 13th in total defense at 258.2 yards per game.  They held what was previously a high-powered Temple offense since switching over to Evan Simon at QB to just 14 points last Thursday.  Now the Black Knights have had two extra days to rest and recover and get ready to crush Tulsa.

Tulsa is a tired team playing for a 6th consecutive week.  The Golden Hurricane are 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS this season.  They have been through the gauntlet the last four weeks.  After losing 28-24 at Arkansas State, they were crushed 45-10 at home by Oklahoma State.  Then they had to go back on the road and were fortunate to escape with a 23-20 (OT) win at Louisiana Tech.  And last week they went on the road again and got crushed 52-20 at North Texas.

I think we see a similar result here to the Oklahoma State and North Texas games.  I would argue Army would beat both of those teams, and they both outscored Tulsa 97-30 in their two wins.  It's a Tulsa defense that ranks 105th in the country allowing 34.6 points per game.  You think they want to try to tackle Daily and these physical Army backs with how drained they are already?  The answer is no.  This one will get away from them in a hurry.  Bet Army Saturday.

25* Service Academy GAME OF THE YEAR on Navy -9.5

The Navy Midshipmen are an absolute wagon offensively this season.  This is probably the best offense they've ever had, and a lot of it has to do with former Mercer offensive coordinator Drew Cronic, who is a name to watch in the coming years.

Navy is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this season behind an offense that ranks 11th in scoring at 46.0 points per game, 24th in total offense at 466 yards per game and 5th at 7.8 yards per play.  They have more balance this year rushing for 287 yards per game and throwing for 179 yards per game.  They put up 56 points and 659 total yards on a respectable Memphis defense two weeks ago.

Air Force is 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS this season.  The Falcons have one of the worst offenses in program history.  They rank 131st in scoring at 12.5 points per game, 130th in total offense at 243 yards per game and 132nd at 3.8 yards per play.  This despite facing a pretty soft schedule beating Merrimack 21-6 as a 30-point favorite, losing 17-7 at home to San Jose State as a 3-point favorite, losing 31-3 at Baylor as a 17-point dog and losing 31-19 at Wyoming as a 4-point favorite.

That effort at Wyoming was very alarming for a number of reasons.  The Falcons were coming off their bye week so they had two weeks to prepare.  And this Wyoming team is hot garbage.  The Cowboys were 0-4 previously including a 48-7 loss to Arizona State, a 17-13 home loss to FCS Idaho, a 44-17 loss at North Texas and a 34-14 home loss to BYU.

Navy will show no mercy here and will keep pouring on the points considering they will be playing with quadruple revenge with four straight losses to Air Force in this series.  It's time for the Midshipmen to the return the favor in blowout fashion.  The Falcons simply cannot keep up with the Midsphipmen offensively in this one.  Bet Navy Saturday.

15* Syracuse/UNLV FS1 ANNIHILATOR on UNLV -6.5

The UNLV Rebels showed how much more potent they can be with Hajj-Malik Williams at quarterback in their 59-14 beat down of Fresno State last week.  They finally have a passing game as Williams completed 13-of-16 passes for 182 yards and 3 touchdowns, and he proved he can handle the load on the ground as well with 119 rushing yards and a touchdown on 12 carries.

But this UNLV defense being improved is the reason they are a contender to make the 12-team playoff.  The Rebels rank 20th in the country in scoring defense at 13.8 points per game.  They are 30th in total defense at 309.5 yards per game and they only allow 4.8 yards per play as well.

This is a much more favorable spot for UNLV than it is for Syracuse.  The Rebels had a bye prior to last week and then got to host Fresno State last week.  They have been home for three straight weeks.  Syracuse has played each of the last two weeks at home against Stanford and Holy Cross, actually getting upset by the Cardinal on Friday Night two weeks ago.  Now they have to travel all the way out West to Las Vegas and play on a short week.

This will be the first road game of the season for Syracuse.  They have benefited from a very soft home schedule of Ohio, Georgia Tech, Stanford and Holy Cross.  This will be by far their stiffest test of the season, and I don't expect them to handle it very well.  Syracuse is just 12-34 SU in its last 46 road games over the last nine seasons.  It's a tough spot for a first-year head coach trying to get his troops ready in time to face this red-hot UNLV team.

UNLV is now 18-4 ATS in 22 games under current head coach Barry Odom.  The books just cannot seem to catch up to how good this team really is.  Bet UNLV Friday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on UTEP +10.5

The spot really favors the UTEP Miners Thursday night.  They should not be catching double-digits given the spot being so heavily in their favor tonight, and we'll take advantage.

UTEP has a first-year head coach in Scotty Walden who comes over from Austin Peay and brought several of his players with him.  But the leftover players still needed to learn his systems, and it was going to take some time.  Well, UTEP got a bye last week, and bye weeks are more beneficial to first-year coaches than any other coaches.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on UTEP after opening 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS against a pretty difficult schedule.  Three of the losses came on the road to Nebraska, Liberty and Colorado State.  Nebraska is one of the best teams in the Big Ten, Liberty is a team that many feel will go unbeaten and make the four-team playoff, and Colorado State is no pushover.

After giving Liberty all they wanted in a 28-10 loss as 24-point dogs, UTEP put up a good fight in a 27-17 loss at Colorado State as 9-point dogs last time out.  The Miners made a switch at QB midway through that game and went to veteran Cade McConnell, who injected life into this offense going 19-of-29 for 220 yards and 2 touchdowns.  McConnell will be the starter moving forward, and getting the bye week to take all the first-team reps will be greatly beneficial to him and this offense.

But this play is as much a fade of Sam Houston State as anything.  The Bearkats are grossly overvalued right now after starting 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS, and they are in the ultimate letdown spot.  Three wins came against Rice, Hawaii and New Mexico State with a 45-14 loss at UCF.  Those first three teams are three of the worst in all of college football.

No question the 40-39 win over Texas State last Saturday was impressive.  The Bearkats came back from a 22-0 deficit to beat the Bobcats 40-39 on a last-second field goal.  They used a ton of energy to come back and pull off that upset against their in-state rivals, and now I question how much they will have left in the tank.  

The Bearkats will be playing for a 6th consecutive week and are now on a short week to boot, only getting 4 days to recover in between games.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat 0-4 UTEP this week in this clear flat spot.  QB Hunter Watson rushed 27 times for 105 yards in that win and has to at least be a little banged up with how much they use him in the running game.  The Miners are live underdogs here tonight.  Bet UTEP Thursday.

15* Bucs/Falcons NFC South ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta ML -120

I like the spot for the Atlanta Falcons this week.  They sit at 2-2 on the season trailing the Tampa Bay Bucs (3-1) for first place in the NFC South.  They don't want to fall essentially three games behind with a loss, so they will be max motivated for a win.

I like the fact that the Falcons played at home on Sunday and get to stay at home, so there is no travel involved.  That is crucial for them on this short week.  The Bucs don't have the same luxury having to travel up from Tampa Bay, and it's always tougher on the road team for these short week games.

The Falcons are also a lot healthier than the Bucs right now.  It looks like the Falcons will get RT Kaleb McGary back this week as he returned to practice on a limited basis Tuesday.  RB Bijan Robinson and WR Ray-Ray McCloud III also got in limited practices.  The only key player the Falcons will likely be missing is ILB Troy Anderson, who missed practice Tuesday after suffering a knee injury last week.

The Bucs have nine starters either questionable or out, and four backups either questionable or out.  WR Jalen McMillan, WR Trey Palmer, DL Calijah Kancey and S Antoine Winfield all did not practice on Tuesday and are likely out.  WR Mike Williams, OT Tristan Wirfs and NT Vita Vea all got in limited practices and are likely to go.  The Bucs placed ILB SirVocea Dennis on injured reserve.

The Bucs are getting too much respect for beating the Eagles 33-16 last week.  That was an Eagles team missing their two best weapons in AJ Brown and DaVante Smith plus their best offensive linemen in LT Lane Johnson.  The Eagles were handicapped offensively and it showed.  Keep in mind the Bucs lost to the Broncos 26-7 the previous week, and they were outgained by 463 to 216 by the Lions in a fraudulent Week 2 win.  They have benefited from playing three of their first four games at home.

The Falcons have been impressive the last three weeks.  They upset the Eagles 22-21 on the road in Week 2, and that was an Eagles team that was a lot healthier at the time than the one the Bucs faced last week.  They were a missed pass interference call away from likely upsetting the Kansas City Chiefs at home in a 22-17 defeat.  And last week they gutted out a 26-24 home win over the New Orleans Saints.  They got two non-offensive touchdowns in the win, but they still outgained the Saints 6.2 to 5.2 yards per play for the game, so it wasn't as fluky as a lot of people are making it out to be.

The motivation, the situation and the injuries favor Atlanta in this one.  Bet the Falcons on the Money Line Thursday.

20* Braves/Padres ESPN 2 No-Brainer on San Diego -111

The Atlanta Braves are out of gas.  They have been playing playoff games for weeks now just to try to get in.  And they had to play all their best players in their double-header against the Mets on Monday because they lost Game 1, making Game 2 a must-win.

The Braves looked gassed at least at the plate last night in their 3-0 loss to the Padres.  It won't get any easier for this short-handed, weak lineup going up against Joe Musgrove tonight in Game 2.

Musgrove has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 11 of his last 12 starts, including 2 earned runs or fewer in 10 of them.  He has allowed a total of 2 earned runs and 13 base runners in 18 1/3 innings with 23 K's in his last three starts coming in.  Musgrove has allowed 2 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Braves as well.  Plus, he is backed by one of the best bullpens in the league.

No question Max Fried has been an ace for the Braves this season.  He he struggled in his lone start against San Diego, allowing 3 earned runs and 12 base runners in 4 1/3 innings of a 3-1 loss to the Padres on May 17th.  He was fortunate to only give up 3 earned runs.  Atlanta has scored 3 runs or fewer in five of its last six games with one of the worst offenses in baseball.  Bet the Padres in Game 2 Wednesday.

20* MLB 2024 Postseason Opener on San Diego Padres -145

This is a terrible spot for the Atlanta Braves.  They just had to play a double-header yesterday with the New York Mets to determine their postseason fate.  Because they lost Game 1, they had to win Game 2 to make the playoffs.  They were forced to play their regulars and use all their best arms available for both games.

I think the Braves take a sigh of relief here, plus they won't have much left in the tank for the Padres in Game 1.  They also have to travel from Atlanta to San Diego overnight.  This is a Braves team that has been playing must-win games for a couple weeks now and they have to be out of gas, not to mention they are dealing with injuries to many of their top players in Acuna Jr, Riley and Sale who are all out.

Michael King has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball this season for the Padres.  He is 13-9 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 30 starts with 201 K's in 173 2/3 innings.  King has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 13 of his last 14 starts, and 3 earned runs in the other.  

San Diego has the best record in all of baseball since the All-Star Break going 43-20 in their last 63 games.  They are primed to make a World Series run, starting with Game 1 tonight.  Bet the Padres in Game 1 Tuesday.

15* Seahawks/Lions ABC ANNIHILATOR Detroit -4

The Detroit Lions will be max motivated tonight.  They want revenge from a 37-31 (OT) loss to the Seahawks in 2023 and a 48-45 loss in 2022.  In fact, they have lost six straight to the Seahawks in this series.  They are also trailing the 3-0 Seahawks in the NFC standings, plus they have a bye on deck next week, so they will be 'all in' for a win here tonight.

The Seahawks have played the easiest schedule in the NFL to this point.  They beat the Broncos and rookie QB Bo Nix 26-20 as 6.5-point home favorites in Week 1.  They needed OT to beat the Patriots 23-20 as 3-point road favorites in Week 2.  Then they had to fly all the way back to Seattle and took advantage of a short-handed Dolphins team in a 24-3 victory as 4-point favorites.  The Dolphins were starting Skyler Thompson at QB, and he got hurt and they were down to third-stringer Tim Boyle in the second half.

To say this will be a step up in class for the Seahawks would be a massive understatement.  Now they face a Detroit Lions team with elite numbers thus far and should be 3-0 if not for going 1-for-7 in the red zone in an upset loss to the Bucs.  The Lions rank 4th in total offense at 399.7 yards per game and 10th in total defense at 293.3 yards per game.  Their improvement on defense this season is the reason the Lions are a real Super Bowl contender.

The Seahawks have a solid offense this season, but their offensive line is a weakness and this Detroit pass rush led by Aidan Hutchinson will be a problem for them.  Seattle has a defensive-minded head coach in Mike McDonald and a solid defense, but this is a defense that is missing several key players that the Lions will exploit, especially up the middle trying to stop the run.  

Seattle will be without starting DE Leonard Williams, starting WLB Uchenna Nwoso and starting SLB Boye Mafe.  They are also without two key depth pieces in NT Cameron Young and DE Byron Murhpy II.  I think Detroit will wear them down with their running game, which has produced 163 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry thus far this season.  Bet the Lions Monday.

20* Bills/Ravens NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Baltimore ML -140

I think the Bills and Ravens are two pretty equal teams despite their records.  Buffalo is 3-0 while Baltimore is 1-2.  And those records are the reason we are getting the Ravens at a discount, and also the reason the Ravens will be the much more motivated team knowing they can't afford to fall to 1-3 and three games behind the Bills with a loss.

The Bills are 3-0 while benefitting from a very easy schedule.  They needed a double-digit comeback to beat the best team they played in Arizona 34-28 as 7-point favorites in Week 1.  They took advantage of three interceptions by Tagovailoa and an injury to him in their 31-10 win in Week 2.  And last week they took advantage of a banged up Jaguars team that played man-to-man defense the entire game against Josh Allen, who owns man-to-man defense. This will be far and away the toughest challenge of the season for the Bills, plus they are on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football.

The Ravens have played the much tougher schedule and could easily be 3-0.  They lost 27-20 to the Chiefs in Week 1 despite outgaining them 452 to 353.  They lost 26-23 to the Raiders despite outgaining them 383 to 260 in Week 2.  And last week they showed that sense of urgency that they will show today as well, jumping on the Cowboys 28-6 going into the 4th quarter before calling off the dogs.  That was a misleading 28-25 final as the Cowboys scored three times in garbage time.  The Ravens had 456 total yards on the Cowboys.

The Ravens have elite numbers, ranking 1st in total offense at 430.3 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play.  They allow 341.7 yards per game and that number would be much loser if not for those yards given up to the Cowboys in garbage time.  What makes these numbers that much more impressive is that they have faced the much tougher schedule.  Buffalo is only outgaining teams by 42 yards per game against a much softer schedule.

The Ravens will play more zone coverage and make life tougher on Allen and this limited Buffalo offense.  The Ravens are the best rushing team in the NFL, and the weakness of the Bills is up the middle stopping the run.  They are wtihout their two best LB's in Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano.  They are also without CB Taron Johnson.  The Bills haven't faced a rushing offense nearly this potent this season, so I like the matchup for the Ravens a lot in this one.

Lamar Jackson is 23-7 ATS as a favorite of -3 or less or an underdog in his career.  Bet the Ravens on the Money Line Sunday night.

15* Browns/Raiders AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Las Vegas ML -120

This is the one premium pick Sunday I likely won't get a better number on game day.  I went in on the Raiders ML -120 when I found out the injury situation for the Browns.  But since I published this pick the Raiders have gotten some bad injury news as they will be without both WR Davante Adams and DE Maxx Crosby, which are two of their best players.  That came out of nowhere.

I still think the Raiders are good enough to win this game with what they have.  The Browns have seven offensive linemen on the injury report, and OL injuries are a big reason Deshaun Watson has looked as poorly as he has.  They will be without their two starting offensive tackles in Willis and Conklin, plus TE David Njoku is out again this week as well.

Watson is completing just 57.8% of his passes while averaging 4.8 yards per attempt through three games.  They lost 33-17 to the Cowboys at home in Week 1, were fortunate to beat the Jaguars 18-13 in Week 2, and were upset 21-15 by the Giants at home in Week 3.  Those performances against the Giants and Jaguars don't look as good now with those teams a combined 1-5, and the Cowboys are in rough shape this season as well.  Those are three of the worst defenses in the NFL the Browns got to face, and the Browns still rank just 31st in total offense at 248.0 yards per game and 31st at 4.1 yards per play.

The Raiders had every opportunity to beat the Chargers in a 16-10 home loss in Week 1.  They pulled off the 26-23 upset at Baltimore as 8.5-point dogs in Week 2, and that win has aged very well.  Last week they suffered an obvious letdown coming back home from that Baltimore win.  They lost 36-22 to the Carolina Panthers, who were rejuvenated with Andy Dalton at QB.

Las Vegas head coach Antonio Pierce called out his players for making 'business decisions' in that loss to the Panthers.  His players love him, and I expect them to respond in a big way here Sunday.  Despite the injuries, I think the Raiders are still good enough to find a way to win this game against the Browns, whose injury situation may be even worse.  DE Myles Garrett isn't right and is playing through injury as well.  Bet the Raiders on the Money Line Sunday.

15* Commanders/Cardinals NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on OVER 48.5

I gave out the OVER 48.5 on Sunday night.  I was on the Commanders/Bengals OVER 47 in the Monday Night Football game and I anticipated a high-scoring game and that this total would open higher. That's what we got with 71 combined points between the Bengals and Commanders.  It has indeed opened higher, but it's still not high enough.  I find value in the OVER at least up to the key number of 51.

The Commanders and Cardinals may very well have the two worst defenses in the NFL.  The Commanders rank 29th in scoring defense, 29th in total defense and 31st in yards per play allowed despite facing two of the worst offenses in the Giants and Bucs.  They are allowing 29.3 points per game, 377.3 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play this season.  They are also dealing with a ton of injuries defensively and have one of the worst secondary's in the NFL.

The Cardinals allowed 34 points to the Bills in their opener.  They had the fortune of playing the Rams who were decimated by injuries on offense in Week 2 and won 41-10.  The Lions moved it up and down the field on them last week with 373 total yards including 187 rushing.  They went ground and pound and just controlled the game with their running game and defense, which is one of the best in the NFL this season.

The Cardinals have faced two elite defenses in the Bills and Lions, and the one game against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Rams they hung 41 points.  They will come close to hanging that on the Commanders as well.  Kyler Murray looks like his old electric self, using his legs a lot more this season to make plays, and he finally has a No. 1 target in Marvin Harrison Jr. who has scored 3 TD in his last two games.  James Conner will have a big game in this one on the ground as well.

This Washington offense has been on fire with Rookie of the Year favorite Jayden Daniels at quarterback.  They became the first team in NFL history to not punt and or turn the ball over once in two consecutive games.  They haven't punted since there was 11 minutes left in the 4th quarter in Week 1 against the Bucs.

In fact, the Commanders have put together 14 straight scoring drives since Week 1 when you throw out them kneeling before the half against the Bengals, who also didn't punt last week.  Daniels went 21-of-23 passing for 254 yards and 2 TD against the Bengals, while also rushing for 39 yards and a score.  He is now completing 80.3% of his passes on the season while also rushing for 171 yards and three scores.

This game has shootout written all over it with two of the best offenses in the NFL up against two of the worst defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Reds/Cubs UNDER 7

The wind has been blowing in at Wrigley Field the last two days and we have seen a pair of 1-0 and 3-0 pitcher's duels as a result.  It will be more of the same today with the forecast calling for 20 MPH winds blowing in from left-center.

The Reds have scored a total of 3 runs in their last five games for an average of 0.6 runs per game.  They have let go of the rope.  Hunter Greene is 9-5 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 25 starts for the Reds this season and should hold the Cubs in check as well.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Tampa Bay Rays -110

The Tampa Bay Rays have taken the first two games of this series with the Boston Red Sox to get to 80-81 on the season and one win away from .500.  Trust me, it means a lot to these players to finish .500 rather than 80-82, and the Rays will be the ones motivated to get there.

The Red Sox have really let go of the rope scoring a total of 4 runs in their last three games.  They will be sending out Quinn Priester, who is 5-9 with a 6.46 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in 94 2/3 innings in his career, including 2-6 with a 5.04 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 44 2/3 innings this season.

The Rays have the clear advantage on the mound behind Ryan Pepiot, who is 8-7 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 25 starts this season.  Pepiot has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 11 of his last 13 starts coming in.  He allowed one earned run in 6 innings with 12 K's in his last start against Boston on September 18th.  Bet the Rays Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Bears PK

This is the ultimate 'buy low, sell high' spot.  The Chicago Bears are coming off two consecutive losses on the road to the Texans by 6 and the Colts by 5.  But now they are back home and highly motivated for a victory Sunday afternoon.

The Los Angeles Rams are coming off their shocking 14-point comeback win at home over the San Francisco 49ers as 7-point underdogs.  Off a win against their biggest rivals, this is the ultimate letdown spot for the Rams.

Both results last week were misleading which is providing us line value this week on the Bears as well.  The Bears outgained the Colts 395 to 306 but lost 21-16.  Caleb Willams threw for 363 yards and 2 TD to show what he is capable of, and I think he's in line for his best game of the season this week against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Rams.

The Rams beat the 49ers 27-24 despite getting outgained 425 to 296 by San Francisco.  They had no business winning that game.  This came a week after losing 41-10 at Arizona while getting outgained 489 to 245 by the Cardinals.

Simply put, the Rams have the worst injury situation in the NFL right now.  They are without their two best weapons in Kupp and Nacua.  Their offensive line is banged up, and their defense is banged up and terrible as it is.  The Rams rank dead last in the NFL allowing 425.7 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play this season.

The Bears have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They rank 8th allowing 286.7 yards per game and 9th allowing 5.1 yards per play.  They are 10th in scoring defense at 19.0 points per game as well.  They have the better defense, are the much healthier team, and have home-field advantage, so this game should not be PK.

I locked this line in at PK Sunday night assuming the Bears would take money and they have since with the line up to -3 as of this writing.  I would still play it up to -3.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

15* Vikings/Packers NFC North ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay ML -125

The Green Bay Packers are likely to get Jordan Love back at QB this week.  If they do, they won't be only -125 favorites on the Money Line, and they will likely be -3 or higher on the spread.  I grabbed this number Sunday night with the anticipation that Love would be back this week.

Either way, the Packers look like a juggernaut this season.  Their offense is loaded and their defense is one of the most improved in the NFL.  They beat the Colts 16-10 in Week 2 with Malik Willis at quarterback.  They beat Tennessee 30-14 in Week 3 as Willis got revenge on his former team.  That was a desperate Titans team looking to avoid an 0-3 start, so it was mighty impressive.

There will be no letdown spot for the Packers here considering they are 2-1 and actually trailing the 3-0 Minnesota Vikings in the division.  And now it's time to 'sell high' on the Vikings, who are getting a lot of hype due to this 3-0 start with a road win over the Giants, and home wins over both the Vikings and Texans.

The Vikings are 3-0 despite only outgaining opponents by 19 yards per game.  I don't think they are as good as their record.  To compare, the Packers are outgaining opponents by 63 yards per game.  Minnesota has had a lot of turnover luck thus far and I don't think it continues this week.  This will be their toughest test of the season against a Packers team that has one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL.  Bet the Packers on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Eagles/Bucs UNDER 46

Injuries to this Philadelphia offense are a big reason I'm on the UNDER 46 here.  I grabbed this number Sunday night anticipating it would get bet down, and we got a great number here because of it.  The total is down to 42.5 and 43 in most places as of this writing Saturday morning.

The Eagles were already without AJ Brown last week.  Then they lost DeVonta Smith and RT Lane Johnson to concussions in an ugly 15-12 win at New Orleans.  They are going to have to get used to trying to win ugly with their running game until they get healthy on offense again.  They will be without Smith this week, and Brown and Johnson are both questionable.

The Bucs have injury problems of their own on offense with WR Jalen McMillan out for this one, and RB Bucky Irving and RT Luke Goedeke questionable.  The Bucs rank 26th in total offense at 277 yards per game.  The Broncos beat them 26-7 last week as their offense was completely held in check.  Now they'll be going up against an improved Philadelphia defense that is hungry for revenge after losing 32-9 to the Bucs in the playoffs last year.  It's a Philadelphia defense that held the Saints to 12 points last week, a Saints offense that was the best in the NFL through two weeks.

The Bucs were without Vita Vea last week and he's arguably their most important defensive player.  Vea is expected to be back this week, and that's huge going up against this one-dimensional Philadelphia rushing attack.  He is one of the best run-stuffers in the NFL.  This is a Tampa Bay defense that held the Lions to 16 points and the Commanders to 20 points, and those are two of the best offenses in the NFL.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Saints/Falcons NFC South ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -1

The Saints were rolling to a 2-0 start with blowout wins over the Cowboys and Panthers.  Everything was looking up for this team, and then a 15-12 home loss to the short-handed Philadelphia Eagles happened last week.  The Saints suffered a ton of key injuries in that loss to boot, and those injuries are a big reason I am fading them today.

The Saints were fortunate to even be in that game against the Eagles, who outgained them 460 to 219, or by 241 total yards.  Giving up 460 yards to the Eagles is a terrible look when you consider they were without star WR AJ Brown, and they lost both WR DeVonta Smith and LT Lane Johnson to concussions.  The Saints basically just needed to stop TE Dallas Goedert on the final drive to seal the win, and they couldn't do it.

The Saints lost two starting offensive linemen in that game last week.  C Erik McCoy was far and away their best offensive lineman, and now he is on IR.  G Cesar Ruiz is out as well.  Things are so bad that the Saints brought in five offensive linemen earlier this week to work out.

The bad injury news for the Saints didn't stop there.  Now their two best playmakers on offense in RB Alvin Kamara and WR Chris Olave are questionable to play Sunday.  Fellow starting WR Cedrick Wilson Jr. is questionable, and backup WR A.J. Perry is out.  Defensively, MLB Demario Davis is out and he hasn't missed a start in 13 years.  He is the leader of their defense and a big blow on that side of the football.

The Atlanta Falcons are remarkably healthy through three games with their main loss being RT Kaleb McGary.  They are also highly motivated for a win this week considering they are trailing the Saints by one game in the NFC South and don't want to fall two games back.  I also like the improvements I've seen from this team since their 18-12 Week 1 home loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Falcons gutted out a 22-21 win at Philadelphia in Week 2 with a huge game-winning drive from Kirk Cousins in the final seconds.  Cousins looked lost in Week 1 against a very good Pittsburgh defense, but he has since looked better each week and this offense has a lot of confidence in him.

Cousins and the Falcons deserved better in a 22-17 home loss to the defending champion Chiefs as 3-point underdogs in Week 3.  The refs missed a pass interference call in the end zone that would have eventually given the Falcons a late lead.  They showed they could play with the defending champs, and while this would usually be the type of loss that could beat a team twice, it won't be this week given the situation.  

The Falcons have to quickly refocus with a division opponent coming to town in the Saints, who they are trailing in the standings.  I expect the Falcons to handle their business against the short-handed Saints in this one.  I grabbed Atlanta -1 as soon as I saw the injury news for the Saints, and I would still play them up to -3.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* Arizona/Utah ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -11

There's no game atmosphere quite like Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City on a Saturday night.  The Utah Utes have one of the best home-field advantages in the country as it is, and that is magnified for night games.  Utah is 33-2 SU in its last 35 home games.

That's why I'm not worried about Utah having a letdown following their big 22-19 win at Oklahoma State last week.  The Cowboys trailed 22-3 with less than 6 minutes left in the 4th quarter.  They managed to score two touchdowns and two 2-point conversions in the final 6 minutes to make the final look closer than it really was.  They were outgained 456 to 285 by Utah, or by 171 total yards.  And keep in mind their offense was held to just over 100 yards before those final two TD drives.

Arizona is a team that profiles similar to Oklahoma State.  The Wildcats play no defense and rely heavily on their passing attack to move the football.  They will get mauled at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football, and we've already seen this happen to them in their lone road game this season against a team that profiles similar to Utah.

Arizona lost 31-7 at Kansas State last time out.  The Wildcats gave up 235 rushing yards to Kansas State.  I'm not worried that the Utes will be playing backup QB Isaac Wilson.  He is a dual-threat who threw for 207 yards and a TD, while also rushing for 41 yards on six carries while handling the atmosphere at Oklahoma State very well last week.  Bernard rushed for 182 yards as the Utes rushed for 249 as a team in that game.  They will get whatever they want on the ground against Arizona.

Arizona wasn't sharp in the two games prior to Kansas State, either.  The Wildcats only beat New Mexico 61-39 as 28-point favorites.  They gave up 470 total yards to the Lobos, who were playing their first game with a new head coach.  In their 2nd game, they barely beat Northern Arizona 22-10 as 37-point favorites.  They actually trailed 10-6 at halftime in that contest.  There's just not a lot to like about this Arizona team after losing many of their players and their head coach to Washington.  Brent Brennan may be in over his head this season, and he certainly is this week.  Bet Utah Saturday.

15* Washington State/Boise State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 64

Two of the best offenses in the country go up against two of the worst defenses in the country Saturday night when Washington State visits Boise State.  Washington State wants to play fast ranking 15th in the country in seconds per play.  Boise ranks 41st in the same category and plays faster than average as well.

Boise State is averaging 48.7 points per game, 543 yards per game and 7.9 yards per play ranking in the Top 10 in the country in all three categories.  The Broncos rank 3rd in the country in rushing at 311.3 yards per game.  The Broncos should get what they want against a Washington State defense that ranks 128th in the country allowing 470.8 yards per game along with 6.1 yards per play.

Washington State ranks 10th in the country at 515.2 yards per game while averaging 7.5 yards per play.  They have a balanced attack with 225 rushing yards per game and 291 passing yards per game.  They'll be up against a Boise State defense that allowed 45 points to Georgia Southern and 37 points to Oregon.

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 80's, no wind and no chance of precipitation in Boise Saturday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Padres/DBacks NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 9

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 36-22 in their last 58 games overall while riding the hottest offense in baseball.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 273 runs in their last 43 games for an average of 6.3 runs per game.  They are the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.5 runs per game.

The Diamondbacks are capable of covering this total on their own against Randy Vasquez, who is 4-7 with a 5.18 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in 19 starts this season.  The Padres probably won't be throwing their best bullpen arms in this one as they threw them last night and want to get them some rest before having to play in the wild card.

Eduardo Rodriquez has been a gas can for the Diamondbacks, going 3-4 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in nine starts this season.  He has allowed 28 earned runs and 9 homers in 45 1/3 innings.  The Padres are scoring 4.7 runs per game this season and their offense has been at their best on the road.

The OVER is 39-15-2 in Diamondbacks last 56 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 40 of them.  The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings with 10 or more combined runs in six of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan State +24

What more does Michigan State have to do to get some respect? The Spartans are 3-1 SU this season including a 27-24 road win at Maryland as 8.5-point dogs.  They dominated that game outgaining the Terrapins 484 to 339, or by 145 total yards.

In their lone loss this season, Michigan State outgained Boston College 368 to 292, but they were +3 in turnovers which was the difference in their 23-19 defeat as 5-point road dogs.  That's a Boston College team that nearly upset Missouri in a 27-21 road loss and did upset Florida State 28-13 as 16.5-point dogs.

Ohio State is getting too much respect for three blowout wins against overmatched opponents.  The Buckeyes have faced the 168th-ranked schedule in the country.  Their three wins have come against Akron, Western Michigan and Marshall and all three were at home, plus they failed to cover the spread in two of them.  I think they'll get more of a test from the Spartans than they bargained for this week in their first road game.

I like the matchup for the Spartans.  They have an elite defense that ranks 14th allowing 254.8 yards per game, 29th against the run allowing 96.8 yards per game, and 14th allowing 2.6 yards per carry.  That's impressive considering they have played the much tougher schedule.  Ohio State wants to run the football, and the Spartans will offer plenty of resistance.

QB Aidan Chiles has kept this Michigan State offense afloat.  He has thrown for 891 yards while also rushing for 95 yards and three scores in four games.  I expect him to make enough plays to keep the Spartans competitive for four quarters, plus they can rely on a running game that averages 153.8 yards per game and 4.6 per carry thus far.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on UCF -13.5

I grabbed UCF -13.5 earlier in the week and it's playable up to -14.  This game has blowout written all over it.  The Bounce House is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and you know fans will be revved up with Deion Sanders and Colorado coming to town.

The Knights are loaded this season with 15 returning starters and a serious contender in the Big 12 under Gus Malzahn.  This is his best team yet, especially with the addition of QB KJ Jefferson from Arkansas.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season including an upset win at TCU.

The Knights have since had a bye week, so they have had two full weeks to prepare for Colorado to give them a big advantage in rest and preparation.  The Knights are loaded offensively ranking 3rd in total offense at 570.7 yards per game including 1st in rushing at 375.7 yards per game and 6.8 per carry.  They will run wild on this soft Colorado defense, and they'll be able to keep piling on the points late with this rushing attack to pull away.

This is a terrible spot for Colorado.  They are coming off a 38-31 (OT) win at Baylor in which they needed a hail mary on the final play of regulation just to get into OT.  They scored first, and Baylor fumbled going into the end zone.  The Buffaloes celebrated like they won the National Championship afterward, and I question how much they'll have left in the tank this week for UCF.

We saw Colorado step up in class on the road earlier this season at Nebraska in a 28-10 defeat.  They trailed 28-0 at halftime and it was over before it started.  I think that will be the case this week.  UCF knows they just have to stop the pass because Colorado cannot run the ball, and they have a very good pass rush.  They will be prepared to stop QB Sanders and WR Hunter in this one.  The Buffaloes just don't have much else, and their lack of depth defensively will really get tested in this one as the Knights keep pounding the rock.

Temps will be in the 80's so the Buffaloes will wear out faster.  Plus, there is a very good chance of rain, and the team that can run the football will fare better in these conditions.  This just sets up perfectly for a blowout in favor of the Knights.  Bet UCF Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UTSA/ECU OVER 53.5

Two teams that want to play fast square off when UTSA visits East Carolina Saturday.  East Carolina ranks 4th in the country in seconds per play, while UTSA ranks 11th.  This total of 53.5 is too low for two offenses that want to play this fast.

UTSA clearly has an awful defense this season.  The Miners allowed 56 points to Texas and 49 points to Texas State.  East Carolina hasn't exactly turned their yards into points yet this season, but I think they will this week with their best offensive output of the season against the soft Miners.

UTSA got their offense going last week with 45 points.  I think they will find success against a ECU defense that allowed 35 points to Liberty last week.  Plus, the Pirates just lost their best defensive player to a season-ending injury prior to that game, CB Shavon Revel Jr. who was going to be a high NFL draft pick.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Eastern Michigan -14.5

Kent State is the worst team in college football and it's not close.  The Golden Flashes are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS this season.  They are scoring 10.2 points per game and averaging 167.5 yards per game while allowing 51.2 points per game and 607.5 yards per game.  They are getting outscored by 40.0 points per game and getting outgained by 440 yards per game.

They are beat up right now after losing 55-24 to Pittsburgh, 23-17 to St. Francis PA, 71-0 to Tennessee and 56-0 to Penn State.  They are without their top two quarterbacks in Kargman and Sherrod and are already down to their 3rd-stringer, who has completing 1-of-7 passes on the season.

Eastern Michigan is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Eagles are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS with a 28-14 win at UMass as 2.5-point dogs, a 30-9 loss at Washington as 24.5-point dogs, a 37-34 (OT) win over Jacksonville State as 2.5-point dogs, and a 36-0 win over St. Francis PA as 25.5-point favorites.

So these teams already have a common opponent in St. Francis PA.  Eastern Michigan beat them 36-0 and held them to 154 total yards while outgaining them by 173 yards.  Kent State lost to them 23-17 while allowing 404 yards and getting outgained by 124 yards.  This one has blowout written all over it.  Bet Eastern Michigan Saturday.

15* Fresno State/UNLV MWC ANNIHILATOR on UNLV ML -120

This line has dropped from UNLV -4.5 all the way down to nearly a PK due to the news that QB Matt Sluka would redshirt and sit out the rest of the season.  It's too big of an adjustment when you consider UNLV's offense was limited by Sluka who was a 43% passer.

Many believe backup Hajj-Malik Williams should have been the starter from the jump as these two were in a fierce battle all the way through fall camp.  Williams threw for 8,248 yards and 58 touchdowns at Campbell prior to coming here and he is the much better passer, plus he can also get it done on the ground, tho he's not as physical a runner as Sluka.

UNLV's captain LB tweeted out 'bout time let's ride' when he heard the news that Sluka elected to sit out paving the way for Williams.  UNLV"s best receiver in Ricky White, who had 88 receptions for 1,483 yards and 8 TD last year, tweeted out that Williams would throw for 300 yards and two touchdowns in this game.  His team clearly has his back, and I believe this is one of those situations where Williams' teammates rally around him for a big performance.

UNLV has been led by its defense this season anyway.  The Rebels are one of the most improved defenses in the country allowing 13.7 points per game, 297.3 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  Barry Odom is a defensive-minded head coach and he finally has his players in place.  They are balling out on D this season.

Now the Rebels are fresh and ready to go coming off their bye week since upsetting Kansas 23-20 as 9-point road dogs last time out.  They are out for revenge on Fresno State after losing 31-24 to the Broncos as 10.5-point road dogs last season.  The Bulldogs had no business winning that game as the Rebels outgained them 424 to 312, or by 112 total yards.

Fresno State used a lot of energy in putting away New Mexico 38-21 on the road last week.  This was one of the most misleading final scores last week.  New Mexico outgained Fresno State 485 to 345, or by 140 total yards.  That's a very bad look allowing that many yards to New Mexico.  Their defense was on the field for 81 plays and that will carry over to this week.  I love the spot for the Rebels.  Bet UNLV Saturday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Reds/Cubs UNDER 7

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this UNDER 7 ticket between the Reds and Cubs.  There are expected to be 25 MPH winds blowing in from center at Wrigley Field at the start of this game.  The Cubs won 1-0 in Game 1 yesterday and it will be a similar pitcher's duel given the forecast in Game 2.

Rhett Lowder has been impressive as a rookie for the Reds going 2-2 with a 1.40 ERA in five starts.  Kyle Hendricks has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts.  He will be good enough with the forecast to keep the Reds in check.

The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Reds last five games overall.  The UNDER is 4-2-1 in Cubs last seven games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on White Sox/Tigers UNDER 7.5

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this UNDER 7.5 ticket between the White Sox and Tigers today.  Tehre will be 10-15 MPH winds blowing in from left-center in Detroit for this early start time game.  

The Tigers just clinched a playoff spot and will likely rest some guys, and the White Sox just can't hit with the worst offense in baseball.  Chicago is scoring 3.1 runs per game on the season.

The UNDER is 8-0-1 in White Sox last nine games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Tigers last five games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pirates/Yankees UNDER 7

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this UNDER 7 ticket between the Pirates and Yankees today.  There will be 10-15 MPH winds blowing in from center at Yankee Stadium today.  Of course, it helps that both teams will be sending their respective aces to the mound today for this early start time game.

Paul Skenes is 11-3 with a 1.99 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 22 starts this season and trying to solidify his case for Rookie of the Year.  Shutting down the New York Yankees would put a stamp on it, and he'll be motivated to do just that.

Luis Gil is 15-6 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 28 starts for the Yankees this season.  He'll shut down a Pirates lineup that has scored 4 runs or fewer in eight consecutive games, and 3 runs or fewer in seven of those eight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Oklahoma State/K-State ESPN No-Brainer on Kansas State -4

I grabbed K-State -4 earlier this week and it's playable all the way up to -6.5.  I love the spot for the Wildcats.  They are coming off an embarrassing, misleading 38-9 loss at BYU in a late-night game in Provo where it's very tough to win.  I had BYU +7.5 in that game and it was one of my 20* Top Plays.

But that game was a lot closer than the final score.  Kansas State settled for a couple short field goals early to keep the Cougars in it.  They scored 17 unanswered points in two minutes right before halftime to bust it open.  One was a 30-yard fumbled return TD.  Later in the 2nd half they got a 90-yard punt return TD that was one of the craziest returns you'll ever see.

Kansas State actually outgained BYU 357 to 241 for the game, or by 116 total yards.  They lost the turnover battle 3-0 and allowed that punt return TD, which was the difference.  Their defense and running game remains elite, and that will be the difference in this game Saturday.

The Wildcats rank 36th in total defense allowing 297.5 yards per game.  They face an Oklahoma State team that doesn't play defense, ranking 126th in the country allowing 461 yards per game.  You could tell this defense was going to be bad when they allowed 648 total yards to Arkansas in a very fortunate OT win where they were outgained by nearly 300 yards.

Oklahoma State is coming off a misleading 22-19 home loss to Utah and their backup QB last week.  They trailed 22-3 with less than 6 minutes left in the 4th quarter.  They managed to score two touchdowns and two 2-point conversions in the final 6 minutes to make the final look closer than it really was.  They were outgained 456 to 285 by Utah, or by 171 total yards.  And keep in mind their offense was held to just over 100 yards before those final two TD drives.

Now Oklahoma State goes up against another team with a very similar profile to Utah.  They are a team that plays elite defense and runs the football.  The Cowboys are allowing 180.2 rushing yards per game to rank 103rd in the country in defending the run.  The Wildcats will run wild on them.

Offensively, the Cowboys are lost at the QB position.  Alan Bowman got benched last week before returning late in the game.  They cannot run the ball despite coming into the season with one of the best backs in the country in Ollie Gordon.  They rank 115th in rushing at 96.2 yards per game and 109th at 3.3 yards per carry.  They are a one-dimensional passing attack and the Wildcats will be ready for it.

Kansas State is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of -7 or less under current head coach Chris Kleiman.  I trust the Wildcats to respond in a big way similar to when they beat Oklahoma State 48-0 at home two years ago as 2.5-point favorites.  The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet Kansas State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -7

The Indiana Hoosiers are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  Curt Cignetti brought a lot of players with him from James Madison and brought in some more great recruits, and the early results are impressive.

The Hoosiers are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS which would be 4-0 ATS if you bet Indiana early in Week 1.  They beat FIU 31-7 as 26-point home favorites, Western Illinois 77-3 as 45-point home favorites, UCLA 42-13 as 3.5-point road favorites and Charlotte 52-14 as 28.5-point home favorites.

That win over UCLA looks even better now after UCLA went on the road last week and only lost by 17 at LSU.  The Hoosiers are a real contender in the Big Ten, and we'll keep getting them at a discount until the oddsmakers and betting public realize it.

Maryland is a rebuilding team this season.  The Terrapins lost all of their top playmakers on offense including their all-everything QB in Tagovailoa.  They have wins over Virginia, UConn and Villanova, but when they stepped up in class they lost 27-24 as 8.5-point home favorites to Michigan State.  They were outgained 484 to 339, or by 145 yards by the Spartans.

Now the Terrapins face their toughest test of the season here on the road against Indiana, which is backed by an excited fan base and will have a bigger home-field advantage than normal because of it.  If they gave up 484 yards to an average Michigan State offense, you can imagine what this Indiana offense is going to do to them.  

The Hoosiers are averaging 50.5 points per game, 513.8 yards per game and 7.8 yards per play this season.  Their defense has been equally impressive, allowing 9.2 points per game, 199.2 yards per game and 3.7 yards per play.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Oklahoma State/Kansas State UNDER 56

One look at the recent head-to-head history between Oklahoma State and Kansas State and it's easy to see there's value on the UNDER 56 in this one.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 51 or fewer combined points in all six meetings.  It will be more of the same here.

I expect Kansas State to control this game playing from ahead.  The Wildcats are a methodical running team that relies on running the football and playing defense to win games.  They rush for 240 yards per game and only throw for 160 yards per game.  They allow just 297 yards per game on the season.

We saw Utah stymie this Oklahoma State offense last week holding them to 3 points with less than 6 minutes to play before the Cowboys scored two touchdowns with two 2-point conversions in the final six minutes for a 22-19 final.  Kansas State profiles similar to Utah and will do the same.

We saw Kansas State play a team with a similar profile to Oklahoma State earlier this season.  Kansas State beat Arizona 31-7 at home.  Arizona is known for a high-powered offense that plays little defense.  Kansas State controlled this game playing from ahead and it saw just 38 combined points.  It will be more of the same here against the Cowboys.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Western Kentucky +13

Note: It was announced that BC starting QB Castellanos would miss this game since I posted this pick.  The line is currently down to +8 at most places.  It's still a 25* at +7.5 or better, and a 20* at anything worse.

Boston College is overvalued for playing well against two teams that are way overrated in my opinion.  I was on the Eagles when they upset Florida State 28-13 as 16.5-point dogs and I was on them again when they took Missouri to the wire in a 27-21 defeat as 14.5-point dogs.

Florida State is lucky to not be 0-4 right now as they got a win over Cal that they didn't deserve last week.  Missouri needed OT to beat Vanderbilt at home last week.  So those two performances don't look nearly as good now.

I successfully faded the Eagles last week as they failed to cover as 5-point favorites in a 23-19 home win over Michigan State.  They had no business winning that game as they were outgained 368 to 292 by the Spartans, but they were +3 in turnovers which was the difference.

This is the ultimate flat spot for Boston College now.  They have been through the gauntlet going to the wire with Missouri and Michigan State the last two weeks, which were also two very physical games.  I question how much they have left in the tank for Western Kentucky this week.  

It's also a sandwich spot with an ACC opponent in Virginia on deck next week.  And it's fair to question how much intensity the Eagles will be playing with after playing their famous 'Red Bandana' game last week against Sparty.  They get up for that game every year for obvious reasons, and now they will come back down from it in this obvious flat spot.

Western Kentucky is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS this season with their lone loss coming to Alabama.  The Hilltoppers have been playing better the last two weeks since switching to Caden Veltkamp at quarterback.  He led them to their big comeback bowl win last year while throwing 5 TD passes.  He should have started from the jump, and he is proving it completing 73.9% of his passes with a 6-to-2 TD/INT ratio since taking over as starter two games ago.

The 31-0 win over Eastern Kentucky as 19.5-point favorites and the 49-21 win at Middle Tennessee as 7-point favorites weren't that impressive despite the fact that they covered by such large margins.  It was the 26-21 win as 2.5-point dogs to Toledo last week that was impressive.  Toledo was coming off a 41-17 win at SEC foe Mississippi State, and many expected the Rockets to win the MAC this season.  

They are more than capable of hanging with a Boston College team that won't be putting their best foot forward this week.  They proven they could stop the run holding Toledo to 125 rushing yards on 42 carries for an average of 3.0 yards per carry.  And stopping the run against BC will be key as the Eagles are more of a one-dimensional running team.  Bet Western Kentucky Saturday.

20* Padres/DBacks NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona -135

The Arizona Diamondbacks are tied with the New York Mets for the final two wild card spots in the National League.  They are just one game ahead of the Braves from being eliminated completely, so it's safe to say they are max motivated heading into this series.

The same cannot be said for their opponent in the San Diego Padres.  The Padres just lost two consecutive games to the Dodgers on Wednesday and Thursday, which allowed the Dodgers to clinch the NL West.  With the division title no longer attainable, the Padres are essentially locked into the No. 4 seed in the National League.  They have nothing to play for in this series, and they will be resting guys knowing they have to play on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Merrill Kelly is 5-0 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 12 starts for the Diamondbacks this season and back to full strength.  He has allowed just one earned run and 6 base runners  in 11 innings in his last two starts with 11 K's.

Yu Darvish remains on a pitch count as he works his way back from injury and will be on one again today.  He has allowed 5 homers in his last four starts.  Darvish allowed 4 earned runs and 9 hits in 5 innings in his last start against Arizona.  Bet the Diamondbacks Friday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Mets -119

The New York Mets are tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the final two wild card spots, and they are just one game ahead of the Braves from missing the playoffs completely.  It's safe to say the Mets will be max motivated, and they will get their best hitter in Francisco Lindor back from injury in this series.  He's going to finish 2nd in MVP voting behind Ohtani he's been that good.

The Milwaukee Brewers are locked into the No. 3 seed with nothing to play for.  The Brewers are more concerned with getting their guys rested heading into the postseason knowing they will have to play on Tuesday or Wednesday.

The Mets have big rest, motivational and starting pitching advantages in this game to boot.  The Mets have had the last two days off since both games against the Braves were rained out on Wednesday and Thursday.  The Brewers just completed a 3-game series in Pittsburgh yesterday.

Sean Manaea is 12-5 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 31 starts for the Mets this season.  He'll be opposed by gas can Frankie Montas, who is 7-11 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 29 starts between the Reds and Brewers.  Montas allowed 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 2 2/3 innings to the Diamondbacks in his last start.  Bet the Mets Friday.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado Rockies +180

The Los Angeles Dodgers just clinched the NL West title last night in a 7-2 win over the San Diego Padres.  They will be fat and happy and hungover today and not caring about winning this game against the pesky Colorado Rockies, who are always a tough out at home.

Cal Quantrill has put up respectable numbers this season when you factor in he pitches half of his games at Coors Field. Quantrill is 8-10 with a 4.72 ERA in 28 starts for the Rockies.  He'll be good enough tonight to give the Rockies a chance.

Simply put, the Dodgers shouldn't be close to -200 favorites today given the letdown spot after clinching the division last night.  The Rockies have scored at least 4 runs in six of their last eight games including 10 runs against the Cardinals last night.  They are motivated to make life difficult on the rival Dodgers in this series.  Bet the Rockies Friday.

15* Orioles/Twins AL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8.5

Both the Minnesota Twins and Baltimore Orioles still have something to play for and should have all hands on deck in their lineups as a result.  The Orioles are trying to clinch the 4th seed in the wild card, while the Twins are trying to just stay alive in the wild card.

These are two potent offenses with the Orioles scoring 4.8 runs per game and the Twins 4.6 runs per game.  Both offenses should have their way against these two starting pitchers tonight.

Cade Povich has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  He is 2-9 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 15 starts while allowing 46 earned runs and 12 homers in 74 innings.  Pablo Lopez was rocked for 7 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 innings in his last start against the Red Sox.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  The OVER is 7-1-1 in Orioles last nine games overall.  The OVER is 4-1 in Twins last five games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* VA Tech/Miami ESPN No-Brainer on Virginia Tech +19.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on Virginia Tech and 'sell high' on Miami.  Virginia Tech is 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS this season, while Miami is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS.  This line would have been less than 7 if it were played in Week 1, and because of results thus far it has been adjusted up way too much to 19.5 points here Friday night.

Virginia Tech had a lot of hype coming into the season about possibly being a sleeper to win the ACC after how strong them finished last season, plus the fact that they brought back 21 starters from that team.  They were upset 34-27 as 13-point favorites by Vanderbilt in the opener.  Vanderbilt went on to nearly upset Missouri, losing in OT on the road last week, so that loss doesn't look at bad now.

Last week, Virginia Tech lost 26-23 to Rutgers as 3-point home favorites.  Rutgers was coming off a bye week and had a big rest advantage.  Also, Rutgers looks like one of the most improved teams in the country this season with a 3-0 start and two other blowout victories.

Miami is getting a lot of credit for its 4-0 start this season against a very soft schedule.  The win over Florida in the opener doesn't look nearly as good now after Texas A&M crushed Florida as well.  They blew out Ball State and Florida A&M, and last week they were trailing 15-14 near halftime to USF before outscoring them 36-0 the rest of the way.  They were aided by an injury to USF QB Brown in the 2H, who means everything to their team.  

I'll gladly 'sell high' on the hype this week as this is the type of game Miami has had a letdown at home in the past under Mario Cristobal.  The Hurricanes lost outright as 20-point home favorites to Georgia Tech last year and needed OT to beat Virginia as 18-point favorites.  I think they'll get a much bigger fight than they bargained for in this one.  Each of the last four meetings were decided by 12 points or less, and VA Tech has only lost one if its last eight meetings with Miami by more than 18 points.  Bet Virginia Tech Friday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Royals/Braves UNDER 7.5

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this UNDER 7.5 ticket between the Royals and Braves today.  There will be 15 MPH winds blowing in from center at game time, and I trust both these starting pitchers to shut the opposition down.

Max Fried is 10-10 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 28 starts for the Braves this season.  Fried has allowed just 5 earned runs in 25 innings in his last four starts coming in.  He'll be opposed by Brady Singer, who is 9-12 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 28 starts for the Royals this season.

The Braves are a dead nuts UNDER team going 92-59-6 UNDER in all games this season.  The Royals are 85-68-4 UNDER in all games this season.  The Royals have scored 3 runs or fewer in seven of their last eight games, including one run or fewer five times.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Guardians -118

The Cleveland Guardians still have something to play for trailing the Yankees by one game for the No. 1 seed in the American League.  They have already clinched a first-round bye so they will get to rest after this weekend, so they aren't concerned with resting now given what's at stake.

The Houston Astros have nothing to play for.  They have clinched the AL West and will want to rest their guys considering they will have to play on Tuesday or Wednesday in the wild card round.  They are locked into the No. 3 seed.  They are already resting their best hitter in Yordan Alvarez, and more may follow him to the bench for this series.

Joye Cantillo has been impressive in his last three starts, allowing just 2 earned runs in 16 1/3 innings with 22 K's.  He will shut down this short-handed Astros lineup tonight.  Bet the Guardians Friday.

15* AL Friday Total DOMINATOR on White Sox/Tigers UNDER 7.5

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this UNDER 7.5 ticket between the White Sox and Tigers today.  Temps will be in the 60's with 25 MPH winds blowing in from left-center.  Runs will be very hard to come by in this one today folks.

The White Sox gave their ace Garrett Crochet an extra day of rest so he could start Game 1 of this series with the Tigers with the White Sox wanting to make life tough on their rivals, who are trying to clinch a playoff berth.

These are two of the worst offenses in baseball with the White Sox scoring 3.1 runs per game this season, and the Tigers at 4.2 runs per game.  Whoever the Tigers send out there will be able to shut down this weak Chicago lineup given the forecast.  

The UNDER is 7-0-1 in White Sox last eight games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Padres/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 8.5

Two of the best offenses in baseball square off tonight in this matchup between the Dodgers and Padres.  The Dodgers are scoring 5.1 runs per game while the Padres are scoring 4.7 runs per game and their numbers are even better on the road.

The Padres are capable of covering this total on their own against Walker Buehler, who is 1-6 with a 5.63 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 15 starts this season.  He is a shell of his former self trying to come back from injury.

But the Dodgers will do plenty to contribute.  Joe Musgrove is 6-5 with a 3.95 ERA in 18 starts this season.  He has allowed 9 earned runs and 21 base runners in 8 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Dodgers, who have owned him.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Cowboys/Giants NFC East No-Brainer on OVER 44

Two of the worst defenses in the NFL square off Thursday night in this matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants.  Both offenses should have plenty of success in this one to get up and OVER 44 combined points, which is a very key number for NFL totals and I'm glad we got this one early.

The OVER is 3-0 in Dallas' three games this season.  They played in a 33-17 shootout with the Browns for 50 combined points in Week 1, a 44-19 shootout with the Saints for 63 combined points in Week 2, and a 28-25 shootout with the Ravens for 53 combined points in Week 3.  It should be more of the same here.

Those are three good defenses they faced and the Cowboys managed to average 25.7 points per game against them.  But they have allowed 372.7 yards per game, 6.2 yards per play and 29.7 points per game.  They are last in the NFL against the run allowing 185.7 rushing yards per game.

The Giants have an improved offense this season with a healthy Daniel Jones and a new favorite target in Malik Nabers, who has 23 receptions for 271 yards and 3 TD.  Wandale Robinson has been a nice compliment with 15 receptions for 123 yards and a score.  And Devin Singletary has rushed for 197 yards and 2 TD while averaging 4.7 per carry.  The Giants should be able to get what they want on the ground, which will open up their passing game.

The Giants allowed 28 points in three quarters to the Vikings in Week 1.  In Week 2, they didn't force a single punt against the Commanders and let them score on all seven of their drives.  Last week they were much better against the Browns as their defensive line took advantage of a banged up Browns offensive line that was missing several starters.  They won't have that luxury this week.

Both defenses are dealing with significant injuries.  The Giants will be without two starting CB's in Dru Phillips and Adoree Jackson, and they already had one of the worst secondary's in the NFL.  That's bad news for them up against the Cowboys, who rank 1st in passing at 269.7 yards per game.  The Cowboys are more of a one-dimensional offense without being able to run the football, and they will be trying to move it through the air.

Dak Prescott has owned the Giants scoring 35 or more points in six of the last 10 meetings.  They have averaged 33.3 points per game in their last 10 meetings.  They will do the heavy lifting for us, but the Giants should be able to keep up that is going to be without DT Jordan Phillips, S Marquese Bell and CB Caelen Carson.  They were already without CB DaRon Bland who has been on IR since the opener.  These are two horrid secondary's right now that will get exposed.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Army/Temple ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 45.5

For starters, games involving a service academy where both teams are on a short week are 14-3 OVER since 2018.  This trend makes sense because the opponent has less time to prepare for their triple-option and they aren't ready for it.  These games always tend to be more shootouts compared to these low totals for these service academy games.

Army is a wagon on offense this season behind one of the best triple-option QB's in program history in Bryson Dailey, who has rushed for 340 yards and 5 TD while throwing for 186 yards and 3 TD while averaging 9 yards per attempt.  He leads an Army offense that ranks 2nd in the country at 356 rushing yards per game.

That makes this a great matchup for this Army offense up against this Temple defense that allows 221.8 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry, ranking 124th in the country against the run.  Temple lost 38-11 to Navy three weeks ago and allowed 297 rushing yards to the Midshipmen.

But the biggest reason I'm on the OVER is the improvement of the Temple offense once they switched QB's to Evan Simon two games ago.  Simon is completing 65.4% of his passes with a 7-to-1 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 53 yards and a score.  He threw 5 touchdown passes in a 45-29 win over Utah State last week.  Simon and this Temple offense should be able to answer when Army scores almost every possession.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Padres/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego +123

The San Diego Padres have been the best team in baseball since the All-Star Break.  Don't look now but they have climbed within two games of the Dodgers for the NL West title.  Going 8-2 in their last 10 meetings this season gives them the tiebreaker, and they are out for blood now after taking Game 1 of this series last night.

Dylan Cease has fired 14 1/3 shutout innings in his last two starts coming in.  Cease has allowed just 3 earned runs without a homer in 15 2/3 innings with 24 K's in his last three starts against the Dodgers for a 1.72 ERA.

Jack Flaherty has been disappointing since the Dodgers traded for him.  Flaherty has allowed 7 earned runs and 16 base runners in 9 innings in his last two starts coming in.  He has allowed 10 earned runs, 2 homers and 17 base runners in 9 innings in his last two starts against the Padres as well.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Padres Wednesday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Giants/Diamondbacks OVER 8.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 35-21 in their last 56 games overall while riding the hottest offense in baseball.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 262 runs in their last 41 games for an average of 6.4 runs per game.  They are the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.5 runs per game.

The Diamondbacks are capable of covering this total on their own against rookie Mason Black, who is 1-4 with a 5.88 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in seven starts for the Giants this season.  He has allowed 22 earned runs and 7 homers in 33 2/3 innings.

Zac Gallen hasn't been nearly as dominant this season and hasn't made it pas the 5th inning in six of his last eight starts.  He has allowed 7 earned runs and 4 homers in 10 innings in his last two starts coming in.  Gallen has also allowed 9 earned runs and 3 homers in 16 innings in his last three starts against the Giants.

The OVER is 38-14-2 in Diamondbacks last 54 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 39 of them.  The OVER is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings with 9 or more combined runs in six of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Reds/Guardians UNDER 8

The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Reds and Guardians, including 4-0 in the last four meetings with 8 or fewer combined runs in all four.  It will be more of the same today with these two underrated starting pitchers.

The Guardians have clinched a bye already and have nothing to play for, and their manager has already said guys will rest here down the stretch.  That means their lineup is going to be a lot weaker.

Cincinnati's Jakob Junis should shut them down.  He has been a real bright spot for them this season, allowing just 3 earned runs, one homer and 12 base runners in 24 innings for a 1.13 ERA in his five starts this season.

Joey Cantillo has been real sharp for the Guardians down the stretch, allowing just 2 earned runs in 16 1/3 innings with 22 K's in his last three starts.  Both starters will shut down the opposition tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati Reds +130

The Guardians have clinched a bye already and have nothing to play for, and their manager has already said guys will rest here down the stretch.  That means their lineup is going to be a lot weaker.

Cincinnati's Jakob Junis should shut them down.  He has been a real bright spot for them this season, allowing just 3 earned runs, one homer and 12 base runners in 24 innings for a 1.13 ERA in his five starts this season.

Joey Cantillo is 2-3 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in seven starts and one relief appearance for the Guardians.  He should not be this big of a favorite today, especially with the Guardians having nothing to play for.  Bet the Reds Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Pittsburgh Pirates +143

The Milwaukee Brewers have nothing to play for.  They are essentially locked in to the No. 3 seed in the National League trailing the Phillies and Dodgers by 2.5 and 3 games respectively with five games to go.  They aren't going to catch either and they know it.

Given the circumstances, the Brewers have no business being this big of a favorite on the road over the Pirates.  I'll gladly fade the overrated Freddy Peralta, who has allowed 11 earned runs, 3 homers and 20 base runners in 15 1/3 innings in his last three starts against Pittsburgh.

Luis Ortiz is one of the most underrated starters in baseball and actually has better numbers than Peralta.  Ortiz is 6-6 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 14 starts and 22 relief appearances this season.  Ortiz has allowed just 3 earned runs and zero homers in 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Brewers.  Bet the Pirates Wednesday.

25* AL West GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Mariners -130

The Houston Astros just clinched the AL West with a 4-3 win over the Mariners yesterday.  They celebrated hard, and now they have to come back and play the only afternoon game in MLB today.  They will be hungover and not ready to play this game.  They also have nothing to play for now as they have been locked into the No. 3 seed.

The Mariners still have a lot to play for.  They are 2.5 games back of both the Tigers and Royals in the AL wild card. They would likely need to win out to get in, but they still have a shot.  And they have the advantage on the mound this afternoon.

George Kirby is 13-11 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 32 starts this season.  Kirby has owned the Astros this season, allowing 3 earned runs in 18 innings for a 1.50 ERA in three starts against them in 2024.  The Astros are likely to rest a lot of their best players today to make his job even easier.

Yusei Kikuchi will likely be on a pitch count as they try and save him for the postseason after trading for him, and with all the injuries to their starting staff already.  Bet the Mariners Wednesday.

15* Mariners/Astros AL West Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 7

George Kirby is 13-11 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 32 starts this season.  Kirby has owned the Astros this season, allowing 3 earned runs in 18 innings for a 1.50 ERA in three starts against them in 2024.  The Astros are likely to rest a lot of their best players today to make his job even easier.

Yusei Kikuchi is 9-9 with a 4.19 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 31 starts this season with 198 K's in 169 2/3 innings.  Kikuchi has allowed just one earned run in 11 1/3 innings with 17 K's in his last two starts against Seattle.

The Mariners rank 1st in baseball in runs allowed per game while the Astros rank 6th.  These are two of the best staffs in the game, and I trust both starters and bullpens to hold their opponents in check tonight.

The UNDER is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings with 7 or fewer combined runs in eight of those nine, including 6 runs or fewer in six of them.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Padres/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 8

Two of the best offenses in baseball square off in this series between the Dodgers and Padres.  The Dodgers are scoring 5.2 runs per game while the Padres are scoring 4.7 runs per game this season.

Michael King allowed 4 homers in 5 innings of a 8-7 win over the Dodgers in his lone start at Los Angeles this season.  Landon Knack has allowed 5 earned runs, 2 homers and 13 base runners in 7 innings in his last two starts for the Dodgers.

The OVER is 8-0-1 in Dodgers last nine games overall with 9 or more combined runs in all nine.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Giants/Diamondbacks OVER 8

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 35-20 in their last 55 games overall while riding the hottest offense in baseball.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 262 runs in their last 40 games for an average of 6.6 runs per game.  They are the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.5 runs per game.

Logan Webb is way worse on the road than at home throughout his career.  Webb has allowed at least 3 earned runs in five consecutive starts and a total of 19 earned runs in 26 innings for a 6.58 ERA during this stretch.

Brandon Pfaadt is 10-9 with a 4.66 ERA in 30 starts for the Diamondbacks this season.  Pfaadt is going through his worst stretch of the season, allowing 30 earned runs in 36 innings in his last seven starts for a 7.50 ERA during this stretch.

The OVER is 37-14-2 in Diamondbacks last 53 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 38 of them.  The OVER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings with 9 or more combined runs in five of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Seattle Mariners +130

The Seattle Mariners have caught fire here down the stretch to give themselves a chance to make the playoffs.  They have gone 4-1 in their last five games overall to pull within 1.5 games of both the Tigers and Royals for the last two wild card spots in the American League.

While the Mariners need wins like blood right now, the Astros have a 4-game lead in the AL West and are basically a shoe-in to win the division as long as they don't lose out.  Injuries are starting to pile up as they were without their best hitter in Yordan Alvarez last night and may be cautious with him again tonight with a knee injury.

Logan Gilbert is 8-11 with a 3.24 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 31 starts for the Mariners this season.  Gilbert has allowed just 6 earned runs in 20 innings in his last three starts against the Astros for a 2.70 ERA.

No question Framber Valdez has been great down the stretch, but he does not enjoy facing the Mariners.  Valdez has allowed 19 earned runs and 5 homers in 26 innings in his last five starts against Seattle for a 6.58 ERA.  The Mariners are 7-3 in their last 10 meetings with the Astros.  Bet the Mariners Tuesday.

15* Mets/Braves NL East ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 8

The Atlanta Braves are a dead nuts UNDER team going 91-59-6 UNDER in all games this season.  The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between the Braves and Mets with 7 or fewer combined runs in five of them.

Spencer Schwellenbach is 7-7 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 19 starts for the Braves this season.  He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 10 consecutive starts.  He pitched 7 shutout innings with 11 K's in his last start against the Mets.

Luis Severino is 11-6 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 30 starts for the Mets this season.  Severino has allowed 6 earned runs in 25 2/3 innings in his last four starts coming in.  He has held the Braves to 4 earned runs in 10 innings in two starts against them this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Red Sox/Blue Jays UNDER 8

The Boston Red Sox are banged up right now without their best hitter in Rafael Devers and possibly their best power hitter in Tyler O'Neill (31 homers), who is questionable with a back injury.  They have scored 3 runs or fewer in five of their last eight games, including 2 runs or fewer in four of them.

The UNDER is 6-0 in Blue Jays last six games overall as their offense has failed to show up here down the stretch.  They have scored a total of 10 runs in their last six games for an average of 1.7 runs per game.

Brayan Bello should shut down the Blue Jays.  He is pitching great coming in allowing 4 earned runs in 16 1/3 innings in his last three starts and 8 earned runs in 29 1/3 innings in his last five.  Bello pitched 8 shutout innings in a 3-0 win over the Blue Jays in his last start against them on August 28th.

Bowden Francis looks like one of the best young starters in baseball this season.  He has allowed a total of 8 earned runs in 49 innings in his last seven starts for a 1.47 ERA while lasting at least 6 innings in all seven starts.  Francis fired 7 shutout innings while allowing just one base runners in a 2-0 win over the Red Sox on August 29th in his lone start against them this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Giants/Diamondbacks OVER 9

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 35-19 in their last 54 games overall while riding the hottest offense in baseball.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 259 runs in their last 39 games for an average of 6.6 runs per game.  They are the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.5 runs per game.

I expect the Diamondbacks to do the heavy lifting here and are more than capable of covering this 9-run total on their own.  They should tee off on Hayden Birdsong, who is 4-5 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 14 starts this season while allowing 33 earned runs, 10 homers and 38 walks in 62 2/3 innings.  Birdsong allowed 2 earned runs and 8 base runners in 3 innings in his lone start against Arizona this season that resulted in a 6-4 loss at home.

The Giants should get their bats going today against Eduardo Rodriquez, who is 3-3 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in eight starts this season.  Rodriquez has allowed 23 earned runs in 40 2/3 innings.  

The OVER is 37-14-1 in Diamondbacks last 52 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 37 of them.  Arizona and its opponents have combined for 10 runs or more in nine of its last 14 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Commanders/Bengals ABC No-Brainer on OVER 47

The Washington Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team.  That was evident in Week 1 when they made Baker Mayfield look like Joe Montana in a 37-20 road loss.  Mayfield completed 24-of-30 passes for 289 yards and 4 TD in the win.

Last week, the Commanders made Daniel Jones look like a respectable QB.  The Giants scored three touchdowns on their defense, but unfortunately their kicker got hurt pregame and they failed on an XP followed by two missed 2-point conversions.  They were also forced to go for it on 4th down without a kicker.  They lost 21-18 to the Commanders.

Washington won that game despite not scoring an offensive TD.  In fact, the Commanders kicked 7 field goals, never had to punt and went 0-for-6 in the red zone.  Jayden Daniels moved the Commanders up and down the field and looks like the best rookie QB in this draft thus far.  He is completing 75.5% of his passes while also rushing for 132 yards and 2 TD through two games.

The Bengals got their offense going last week in a 26-25 loss to the Chiefs.  Now another reinforcement is on the way as WR Tee Higgins will make his season debut Monday night.  This is one of the best offenses in the NFL when Burrow, Chase and Higgins are on the field at the same time, and they should have their way with a Washington defense that will likely prove to be the worst in the NFL this season.

The Commanders are allowing 6.3 yards per play.  The Bengals are also down defensively this season especially with the loss of DT DJ Reader, who is one of the best run stuffers in the league.  This game has shootout written all over it.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Jaguars/Bills ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Jacksonville +6

We'll 'buy low' on the 0-2 Jacksonville Jaguars and 'sell high' on the 2-0 Buffalo Bills.  NFL teams that are 0-2 facing a team that is not 0-2 in Week 3 have gone 53-32-2 ATS over their last 87 tries.  This trend just goes to show that there is serious value backing this 0-2 teams.

The Jaguars are one of my favorite 0-2 teams to back this week.  They could easily be 2-0.  Travis Etienne fumbled going in for a TD that would have given them a 24-7 lead on the Dolphins in Week 1 and put that game away.  Instead, the Dolphins scored on an 80-yard bomb to Tyreke Hill on the next play for a 14-point swing.  The Dolphins went on to win 20-17 on a last-second FG.

Last week, the Jaguars lost 18-13 at home to the Browns.  They had the ball back with a chance to tie or take the lead but took a safety after a great punt to the 1-yard line.  They actually outgained the Browns 323 to 297 for the game and probably should have won that game as well.  They are the kings of one-possession games, so getting 6 points here is a great value.

The Bills beat the Cardinals 34-28 in Week 1 and crushed the Dolphins 31-10 in Week 2.  But that win over the Dolphins was pretty misleading considering Miami actually outgained them 351 to 247.  The Dolphins just gave it away with 3 interceptions by Tua Tagovailoa, who was eventually knocked out with a concussion.

Buffalo injuries are a big reason I am fading them this week.  They are going to be without LB Terrell Bernard and CB Taron Johnson, which are two of their best defenders.  They were already without LB Matt Milano.  The Jaguars should find plenty of success against a Bills defense that on paper looks as bad as they have had in the Sean McDermott era.  And I like this improved Jacksonville defense that actually one of the best pass rushes in the NFL this season.  This game is likely decided by a FG either way.  Bet the Jaguars Monday.