20* Ohio State/Notre Dame CFP Championship No-Brainer on Ohio State -9

Note: If you receive this play before NFL Wild Card weekend, I also recommend teasers with Ohio State -2.5 or better paired with the Bills -2.5 or better and the Rams +8.5 or better.  You may need to do a 7-point teaser.  Ohio State/Eagles ML parlay is also a good way to play it.

If you receive this play after NFL Wild Card Weekend, a 6-point teaser with Ohio State -2.5 or better paired with Chiefs -2.5 or better is another great way to play it.

If you're buying this play after the Divisional Round, then a 6-point teaser with Ohio State -2.5 or better pair with Bills +7.5 or better against the Chiefs is another good way to play it.

Ryan Day, Chip Kelly and the Ohio State Buckeyes learned from their loss to Michigan in the regular season finale.  They decided to open it up and let Will Howard cook in the passing game in the 12-team playoff, and it has worked wonders with all of their playmakers on the outside.

The Buckeyes crushed Tennessee 42-17 and jumped on the Vols early with a 21-0 lead after the first quarter.  They threw for 317 yards for the game and actually took their foot off the gas late with the game already in hand, or it could have been worse.

The same thing happened against Oregon in the quarterfinals as the Buckeyes blitzed the Ducks jumping out to a 34-8 lead at halftime.  Will Howard threw three touchdown passes of 40-plus yards in the first half and Henderson popped a 66-yard run after.  They took their foot off the gas in the 2H or it would have been worse than a 41-21 final.  This just goes to show how potent Ohio State could be for four quarters if they actually have their foot on the gas for all four.

Against a very strong Texas defense, the Buckeyes had to work a little harder in their 28-14 win.  They only managed 370 total yards but held Texas to only a pair of scores.  Texas has one of the best defensive lines in the country, something they won't have to worry about against Notre Dame.

Notre Dame is very small along the front four and will have to bring extra guys up in the box to try and stop the run.  The Fighting Irish lost DL Rylie Mills (37 tackles, 7.5 sacks) in the playoffs and he is out for the season.  LT Boubacar Traore (3 sacks) has been out since October.  DL's Onye and Botelho are also out hurting their depth along the D-Line.  CB Benjamin Morrison has been out since Week 7.

The Fighting Irish also have significant injuries along their offensive line.  They have been without starting C Ashton Craig since September 14th.  They just lost freshman LT Anthonie Knapp in their win over Penn State last week.  G Rocco Spindler will be available to play after leaving the Penn State game with an ankle injury. WR Beaux Collins (37 receptions, 458 yards, 3 TD) is questionable after playing just seven snaps against Penn State before leaving with a calf injury.

Ohio State is the better, much healthier team in this one.  The Buckeyes have by far the better offense and it's not even close.  But they also have the better defense.  The Buckeyes rank 1st in scoring defense at 12.2 points per game, 1st in total defense at 251.1 yards per game and 1st at 4.1 yards per play.

Notre Dame is handicapped on offense.  The Fighting Irish rely heavily on running the football to move the ball and score points because Riley Leonard just isn't a very good passer.  Well, running lanes will be non-existent against Ohio State.  The Buckeyes rank 5th in the country allowing 89.9 rushing yards per game and 2nd allowing 2.7 yards per carry.  Their ability to stop the run will be the difference in this game because Leonard isn't going to beat them with his arm.  Bet Ohio State in the National Championship Game.

20* Ohio State/Texas Cotton Bowl No-Brainer on Ohio State -6

Note: I also really like a 6-point teaser with Penn State +8.5/Ohio State PK for the playoff semifinals.  Make sure to check all your books to see what the best price is on a Penn State +8.5 alternate line and Ohio State ML parlay is instead of laying -120 on a 6-point teaser.  Bet whatever price is better.  The alternate line +8.5/ML parlay is currently -106 at DK and -110 at Fanduel as of this writing.

Ryan Day, Chip Kelly and the Ohio State Buckeyes learned from their loss to Michigan in the regular season finale.  They decided to open it up and let Will Howard cook in the passing game in the 12-team playoff, and it has worked wonders with all of their playmakers on the outside.

The Buckeyes crushed Tennessee 42-17 and jumped on the Vols early with a 21-0 lead after the first quarter.  They threw for 317 yards for the game and actually took their foot off the gas late with the game already in hand, or it could have been worse.

The same thing happened against Oregon last round as the Buckeyes blitzed the Ducks jumping out to a 34-8 lead at halftime.  Will Howard threw three touchdown passes of 40-plus yards in the first half and Henderson popped a 66-yard run after.  They took their foot off the gas in the 2H or it would have been worse than a 41-21 final.  This just goes to show how potent Ohio State could be for four quarters if they actually have their foot on the gas for all four.

Texas benefited from a very easy regular season schedule.  The Longhorns lost both meetings with Georgia when they had to step up in class.  And they have been fortunate to make it this far in the 12-team playoff.

Texas only led Clemson by 7 in the 4th quarter before a 77-yard run clinched a 38-24 victory.  Cade Klubnik kept coming throwing for 336 yards and 3 TD against Texas to expose their secondary, which is something I believe Howard can do as well.

Texas had no business beating Arizona State last round.  The Longhorns were actually outgained 510 to 375 by the Sun Devils, or by 135 total yards.  But ASU failed in the red zone and in the kicking game which was the difference.  They threw for 296 yards and rushed for 214 on this Texas defense despite being without their best receiver.

The Longhorns were held to 53 rushing yards on 30 carries by Arizona State.  And that is going to be a problem for them against this Ohio State defense.  The Buckeyes have the best defense in the country ranking 1st in scoring defense at 12.1 points per game, 1st in total defense at 244.6 yards per game and 1st at 4.0 yards per play.  They allow just 92.2 rushing yards per game and 2.7 per carry.  

Texas isn't going to have any success on the ground, and Quinn Ewers is one of the most overrated QB's in the country in my opinion.  He was exposed twice against Georgia this season, and he'll be exposed against Ohio State again here.  Ohio State's balance on offense will also be a big difference in this contest with Howard having another big game through the air.  The Buckeyes have no weaknesses.  They roll again.  Bet Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl Friday.

20* Notre Dame/Penn State Orange Bowl No-Brainer on Penn State +2.5

Note: I also really like a 6-point teaser with Penn State +8.5/Ohio State PK for the playoff semifinals.  Make sure to check all your books to see what the best price is on a Penn State +8.5 alternate line and Ohio State ML parlay is instead of laying -120 on a 6-point teaser.  Bet whatever price is better.  The alternate line +8.5/ML parlay is currently -106 at DK and -110 at Fanduel as of this writing.

The Penn State Nittany Lions have a big rest and preparation advantage over Notre Dame.  The Nittany Lions played on Tuesday last week while the Fighting Irish had their game pushed back a day due to the terrorist situation in New Orleans.  They played on Thursday, so the Nittany Lions have a two-day rest advantage.

In a game that is close to a toss up, I'll take any advantage I can get.  I like the fact that Penn State coaches and players got to watch Notre Dame play on Thursday night.  They would have been paying as close attention as any game they have watched other than their own all season.

James Franklin is quickly proving he can win big games with two impressive wins in the 12-team playoff.  The Nittany Lions won 38-10 over SMU as 9-point home favorites and a 31-14 over Boise State as 11.5-point favorites on a neutral.  They have played the tougher schedule which ranks 33rd in the country.

Their defense continues to shine ranking 7th in scoring defense allowing 15.8 points per game, 4th in total defense at 288.8 yards per game and 7th at 4.6 yards per play.  Their offense is the best of the Franklin era ranking 10th in the country at 6.6 yards per play with tremendous balance behind first-year coordinator Andy Kotelnicki from Kansas.

Notre Dame has benefited from playing the 54th-ranked schedule in the country.  The Fighting Irish also benefited from getting to play an overrated Indiana team in the opening round and a Georgia team that was missing their starting QB.  I think the Irish are grossly overvalued after going a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

A turnover at the 2-yard line followed by a 98-yard run by Jeremiyah Love changed the complexion of that Indiana game early.  A sack fumble followed by a TD right before half on a short field changed the complexion of the Georgia game.  That was followed up by a 98-yard kickoff return TD by Notre Dame coming out of intermission which completely changed the game.

As you can see, big plays by Notre Dame were the reasons for their first two wins in the playoffs.  I don't see them getting those kinds of big plays against a well-coached, stout defense like Penn State.  The Fighting Irish only had 14 first downs and 244 total yards against Georgia.  They have a great defense, but their offense is a weakness.

QB Riley Leonard is known more for what he can do with his legs than his arm.  He threw for just 90 yards on 24 attempts against Georgia.  Star RB Love (1,076 yards, 16 TD) is clearly hobbled and rushed for only 19 yards on 6 carries against Georgia.  He won't get the benefit of extra rest considering he has just six days off in between games.  Not to mention the Fighting Irish are without their best DL Rylie Mills (7.5 sacks), who got hurt against Indiana.

I think these teams are pretty evenly-matched defensively, but the difference is the Nittany Lions have more playmakers on offense and a QB that can actually stretch the field.  They have two 1,000-yard rushers and a 1,000-yard receiver in star TE Tyler Warren.  The Nittany Lions will bottle up Leonard and Love and that will be the difference in this game.  Bet Penn State in the Orange Bowl Thursday.

20* Buffalo/Liberty Bahamas Bowl No-Brainer on Buffalo ML -127

Sometimes bowl games are all about motivation.  And I have no doubt Buffalo is going to be the more motivated team in the Bahamas Bowl against Liberty.  They will also be the better team considering all the players that Liberty is missing.

Expectations were very low for Buffalo this season.  First-year head coach Pete Lembo took over a 3-9 team and turned the Bulls into a contender in the MAC despite being picked by most to finish near the bottom of the conference.  The Bulls went 8-4 this season with all four losses coming to bowl teams in Ohio, WMU, UConn and Missouri.  They also beat fellow bowl teams NIU and Toledo, who both won their bowl games.  Those six bowl teams went a combined 5-1 in bowl games.

Liberty failed to even make the championship game of the worst conference in the country in C-USA.  They were odds-on favorites to win the conference coming in.  They lost to Sam Houston State in their regular season finale, needed OT to beat a terrible UMass (2-10) team, and had several other questionable efforts throughout the season including an outright loss to Kennesaw State (2-10).  They also needed OT to beat awful FIU (4-8).

The biggest loss for the Flames is QB Kaidon Salter, who left for Colorado to try and take the place of Shedeur Sanders.  Three starters along the offensive line hit the transfer portal, as did starting DL Dixon and DL Nairne.  Former App State transfer Ryan Burger will start at QB.  All six players in the portal won't play in the bowl game and head coach Jamey Chadwell said he expects more opt-outs.  Starting S Quinton Reese and starting TE Bentley Hanshaw didn't play in the finale due to injuries.

Meanwhile, Buffalo has the exact same depth chart for the bowl game as it did in the regular season finale.  The Bulls went 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their final four games outscoring those opponents by a combined 67 points. Their offense is humming scoring 37 or more points in five of their last six games.  They want to be here and the Flames don't.  I also believe the Bulls are the better team in their current state.  Bet Buffalo on the Money Line in the Bahamas Bowl Saturday.

20* Minnesota/Virginia Tech Mayo Bowl No-Brainer on Minnesota -7

PJ Fleck is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in bowl games as the head coach at Minnesota.  Few coaches take bowl games more seriously than Fleck does.  And I expect him to have his guys ready to go for the Mayo Bowl against Virginia Tech Friday.

The Gophers have been an undervalued commodity all season going 7-5 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in all games this season.  They aren't the most flashy team, but they do have the best passing game they've had in a long time, and they are still great on defense and in the running game which is the case every year under Fleck.

QB Max Brosmer was a great addition in the transfer portal.  He is completing 66.8% of his passes for 2,617 yards with a 17-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  The Gophers have scored at least 24 points in six of their last eight games and finished strong, going 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their final seven games.  That includes a 1-point loss to Penn State and a 7-point loss at Rutgers.  They beat Wisconsin by 17 on the road, Illinois by 8 on the road, Maryland by 25 at home, UCLA by 4 on the road and USC by 7 at home.

Minnesota has yet another elite defense ranking 12th in the country allowing 17.5 points per game and 7th in total defense at 290.9 yards per game.  The Gophers will likely have a few players sit including RT Phillip Daniels and OT Aireontae Ersery, but there losses aren't nearly as big as what Virginia Tech is dealing with.

Indeed, the Hokies will be missing a ton of starters.  They will be without starting LT Xavier Chaplin, starting C Braelin Moore, starting CB Mansoor Delane, starting S Mose Phillips, LB Sam Brumfield, LB Keli Lawson and RB Malachi Thomas.  DE Powell-Ryland, DT Peebles, WR Felton, WR Lane and CB Strong have all opted out.

That doesn't even include the fact that the Hokies will be missing their two best players on offense in QB Drones and RB Tuten.  Tuten, RG Moore, DT Pene and SS Jenkins all weren't spotted at a recent practice, so the Hokies could be down as many as 14 starters.  It will either be backup QB Schlee or Pop Watson at QB.  What a mess.  Bet Minnesota in the Mayo Bowl Friday.

15* North Texas/Texas State First Responder Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Texas State -13.5

This is much more of a fade of North Texas than a play on Texas State.  The players the Mean Green will be missing in this game will be too much to overcome, and I fully expect them to get blown out by the Bobcats in the First Responder Bowl.

North Texas QB Chandler Morris has left for Virginia.  He is completing 63.1% of his passes for 3,774 yards with a 31-to-12 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 242 yards and four TD.  That leaves true freshman Drew Mestemaker to start in his place, and those are some massive shoes to fill considering Mestermaker has only attempted five passes all season.

But that's not where it ends.  Leading WR DT Sheffield (66 receptions, 822 yards, 11 TD) has committed to Rutgers.  Starting T Oscar Hammond (19, 238 1 TD) has committed to ORegon State.  Starting C Tyler Mercer and starting LG Leke Asenuga are also both out.  Starting OT Larry Moore is out with an injury.  The Mean Green will be relying on a ton of freshmen on offense, and I just don't think they'll have the firepower to keep up with Texas State.

That's especially the case considering Texas State has an explosive offense and will be up against one of the worst defenses they've seen all season in the Mean Green.  North Texas ranks 121st in scoring defense at 34.5 points per game, 127th in total defense at 456.6 yards per game and 108th at 6.1 yards per play.

Texas State only allows 24.2 points per game, 347.9 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play to compare, so they have by far the superior defense.  The Bobcats went 7-5 SU this season but were much better than that record would indicate.  Four of their five losses came by one score, and the other was a 10-point loss.  That includes a 3-point loss to Arizona State, which made the four-team playoff.

The Bobcats will only for sure be without three starters to the transfer portal and possibly five or six.  The biggest of note is RB Ismail Mahdi (991 yards, 4 TD, 5.4/carry).  But backup RB's Pare (404 yards, 6 TD, 5.5/carry) and Burgess (344 yards, 2 TD, 6.4/carry) are ready to fill his shoes.  

There are rumors QB Jordan McCloud may not play significant snaps since I released this play, but backup RJ Martinez is an intriguing transfer from Baylor.  He has completed 18-of-24 passes this season.  Whoever is under center will have three 600-yard receivers at his disposal as none of the receivers have opted out.

North Texas went 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in its final six games of the season.  The Mean Green needed a 24-17 win at lowly Temple (3-9) in their finale just to make a bowl game.  They stand no chance of keeping this game competitive without Morris, Sheffield and several others.  Bet Texas State in the First Responder Bowl Friday.

20* Ohio State/Oregon Rose Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 55

This is a rematch from a 32-31 win by Oregon on October 12th.  Honestly, the 63 combined points was about the minimum they could have scored when you look at the box score.  Oregon had 496 total yards and Ohio State had 467, so they combined for 953 total yards.  There were four field goals including three of 27 yards or fewer.  And Ohio State should have had another FG to win the game but mismanaged the clock in the closing seconds.

It was one of Will Howard's best games of the season for Ohio State as he went 28-of-35 passing for 326 yards and two touchdowns in the loss.  Dillon Gabriel went 23-of-34 passing for 341 yards and 2 TD in the win.  Both teams have weaknesses in the secondary that will be exploited again in the rematch.

Ohio State got conservative late in the season.  Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly made the proper adjustments heading into the playoffs and opened it up against a very good Tennessee defense.  The Buckeyes put up 21 points in the 1st quarter before anyone could blink in a 42-17 win over Tennessee.  Howard finished 24-of-29 passing for 311 yards and 2 TD with one INT against that stout Tennessee defense.  Kelly and Howard will keep their foot on the gas this week.

Oregon got a much-needed bye after an ugly win at Wisconsin.  The Ducks came out of that bye with their hair on fire on offense.  They blasted Washington 49-21 before topping Penn State 45-37 in a shootout in the Big Ten Championship Game.  It's tough to get in a shootout with Penn State because they are suspect on offense and elite on defense.  It just goes to show what Oregon is capable of on offense, and their their defense is overrated.

Penn State managed 518 total yards against Oregon.  Of course, Ohio State put up 467 yards on the Ducks in that first meeting.  Their defense is definitely their weakness.  But Oregon is elite on offense. They Ducks rank 13th in scoring at 35.9 points per game, 14th in total offense at 449.8 yards per game and 15th at 6.6 yards per play.  That's impressive playing in the rugged Big Ten.

Oregon has scored at least 31 points in 11 of its last 12 games and will likely get to 31 or more here.  I expect Ohio State to get into the 30's as well in what will be another shootout as neither defense has an answer for these two elite offenses, especially now that the Buckeyes have opened things up.  Bet the OVER in the Rose Bowl Wednesday.

20* Boise State/Penn State Fiesta Bowl No-Brainer on Boise State +11

From a line value perspective there's clearly value on Boise State.  Penn State just hosted SMU and was a 9-point favorite at home.  That game was played in extremely cold weather against a warm weather team in the Mustangs.  I believe Boise State is better than SMU, especially considering as of this writing the ACC is 1-9 SU & 0-10 ATS in bowl games now.

Now Penn State is an 11-point favorite over Boise State on a neutral in Glendale, AZ where the Broncos will have the majority of the fans.  This line is way out of whack and it should be Penn State -7 or less.  I'll gladly take the value and back the Broncos, who also have the rest and preparation advantage after getting a bye into the quarterfinals.

Boise State is 12-1 SU this season with its only loss coming 37-34 at Oregon, which remains unbeaten and the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  That game was every bit as close as the final score indicated as the Broncos actually outgained the Ducks 369 to 352 for the game.

Boise State also beat Washington State 45-24 back when Washington State was good.  The Broncos also beat UNLV twice this season having to beat them in the Mountain West Championship Game to make the four-team playoff.  That's a very good UNLV team that is also grossly undervalued.

Penn State has always struggled in big games under James Franklin.  Franklin is 3-19 SU against Top 10 teams as Penn State's head coach, including 1-14 SU against Top 5 teams.  Just this season alone the Nittany Lions lost 20-13 at home to Ohio State and 45-37 on a neutral to Oregon.  That gives these teams a common opponent as Boise State lost 37-34 to Oregon, but that was on the road in Eugene, which is a huge difference.  Penn State got to play Oregon in Big Ten country in Indianapolis.

I also think Penn State's misleading 38-10 win over SMU in the opening playoff game is giving them too much respect here.  Their first two scores of the game were pick-6's that totally changed the game.  It looked like SMU was going to score and take the lead twice early, but the two pick 6's flipped it.  Penn State only had 325 total yards against a shaky SMU defense.  The Mustangs were also missing several key players that led to their success during the regular season.

Boise State has tremendous balance even though star RB Ashton Jeanty gets all the credit.  The Broncos rank 3rd in scoring offense at 39.1 points per game, 6th in total offense at 470.2 yards per game and 6th at 6.8 yards per play.  They average 250.5 rushing yards per game and 6.3 per carry, which ranks 5th and 2nd respectively, but they also throw for 219.6 yards per game and 7.5 per attempt.  

The strength of their defense is stopping the run which makes this a good matchup for them against run-heavy Penn State.  The Broncos allow 115.1 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry this season.  They also create a lot of havoc in opposing backfields.  Bet Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl Tuesday.

25* Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Baylor ML -115

The Baylor Bears are quietly playing as well as almost anyone in the country heading into bowl season.  They were a hail mary and OT loss to Colorado away from playing in the Big 12 Championship Game, and may very well be the actual best team in the Big 12.

The Bears are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall beating Texas Tech by 24 on the road, Oklahoma State by 10 at home, TCU by 3 at home, West Virginia by 14 on the road, Houston by 10 on the road and Kansas by 28 at home.  That win over the Jayhawks in the regular season finale was mighty impressive considering Kansas was 5-6 on the season and desperate to get to a bowl game after beating both BYU and Colorado the previous two weeks.

This Baylor offense is hitting on all cylinders.  The Bears have scored at least 37 points in five of their last six games while averaging 41.3 points per game and 505.5 yards per game in their last six games.  They have tremendous balance and play at a break-neck pace.  Sawyer Robinson is one of the most underrated QB's in the country.  He has thrown for 2,626 yards with a 26-to-7 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 227 yards and four scores on the ground.

Baylor has very few key players in the transfer portal and very few injuries.  They are expected to get a pair of LB's back from injury as well who missed the finale.  Head coach Dave Aranda was the defensive coordinator at LSU when they won the National Championship.  He would love nothing more than to beat his former team.

While Baylor is going to have basically all hands on deck, LSU is going to be missing several key players.  Both starting offensive tackles in Will Campbell and Emery Jones as well as TE Mason Taylor (55 receptions, 546 yards, 2 TD) have declared for the NFL Draft.  Leading WR Kyren Lacy (58 receptions, 866 yards, 9 TD) has opted out and fourth-leading WR CJ Daniels (42 receptions, 480 yards) has committed to Miami.  Starting S Sage Ryan has committed to Ole Miss and fellow S Major Burns has opted out.

LSU will start three freshmen along the offensive line, and freshman Trey'Dez Green is the only scholarship TE available.  I think head coach Brian Kelly is much more concerned with locking in his roster for next season than he is about winning a bowl game, plus he doesn't have the horses to win it anyway.  

The Tigers finished 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their final five games this season with their two wins coming at home over Vanderbilt by 7 and Oklahoma by 20, while losing by 15 at Texas A&M, by 29 at home to Alabama and by 11 at Florida.  Baylor wants to be here more and has the more talented roster in its current state.  The Bears will also have the home-field advantage with this game being played in Houston, TX.  Bet Baylor on the Money Line in the Texas Bowl Tuesday.

15* South Carolina/Illinois Citrus Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Illinois +10

The Illinois Fighting Illini flew under the radar all season going 9-3 SU & 8-3-1 ATS.  They continue flying under the radar as double-digit underdogs to the South Carolina Gamecocks in the Citrus Bowl.

Illinois played everyone tough this season except for the No. 1 team in the country in Oregon on the road.  They also lost by 14 at Penn State in a game that was tied 7-7 midway through the 3rd quarter.  They also lost by 8 to Minnesota in what was a favorable rest spot for the Gophers.

The only opt-out for Illinois is WR Pat Bryant.  Head coach Bret Bielema said he doesn't expect any other opt-outs.  RG Zy Crisler is in the transfer portal but will play, as well WR Kenari Wilcher.  The Fighting Illini are in great shape heading into this bowl game.

South Carolina went 9-3 SU & 9-3 ATS this season and was grossly undervalued all year as well.  And with the upset of Clemson in the season finale, the Gamecocks come into this bowl game getting a ton of respect.  They are overvalued as double-digit favorites as this line should be much closer to 3 than 10.  They also get respect because they are in the SEC.

The Gamecocks have two big opt-outs in DE Kyle Kennard and RB Rahiem Sanders.  Sanders is a huge loss because he is a great back who refuses to go down.  He rushed for 881 yards and 11 TD this season.  Kennard will be a top draft pick after registering 11.5 sacks and forcing four fumbles.  He is their best player on defense.  

The Fighting Illini haven't won a bowl game since 2011 so they will be max motivated.  Bet Illinois in the Citrus Bowl Tuesday.

20* BYU/Colorado Alamo Bowl No-Brainer on BYU +4

If both teams had all hands on deck, I'd still like BYU +4.  But while BYU has pretty much all hands on deck for this Alamo Bowl, there are big time questions surrounding Colorado's star players even though they've said they will play.  But how long they play is another story.  

I can't see QB Shedeur Sanders and Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter risking their future by playing the entire game.  So it would just be an added bonus if they decide to sit out after starting the game.  WR Jimmy Horn, WR LaJohntay Webster, WR Will Shepard and DT Chidozie Nwankwo are also potential opt-outs.  LB Nikhai Hill-Green signed with Alabama, while CB Preston Hodge and DL Amari McNeil are injured.  RT Philip Houston and RB Isaiah Augustave both missed the finale, and WR Jimmy Horn missed the last couple games.

BYU should only be without one starter due to opt-out, which is S Crew Wakley.  LB Harrison Tarrart missed the finale by is on the bowl depth chart.  It looks like BYU will have their entire defense available except for Wakley.  There have been some shakeups on the O-Line due to injury, but they will be healthier there than they were in the finale.  WR Darius Lassiter will play but will sit out the first half due to an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty.

BYU went 10-2 this season with its two losses coming by 5 at Arizona State and by 4 at home to Kansas.  The Cougars easily could have won both games as they had the ball in the final seconds looking to take the lead deep in ASU and KU territory.  Colorado went 9-3 and benefited from playing one of the easiest schedules in the Big 12.  They caught teams are the right times as well.

There are 5 common opponents between BYU and Colorado this season.  BYU played Arizona and Baylor very similarly to Colorado in winning both games, but BYU was much better against Kansas and Kansas State than Colorado was.  Colorado went 0-2 against those two while getting outscored by 19 points, while BYU went 1-1 against those two and outscored them by 25 points.

I know BYU head coach Kalani Sitake will have the Cougars ready to play and they are happy and motivated to be here.  The Cougars missed out on a bowl game last year for the first time since 2017, and they have only missed two bowl games since 2005.  They will be more than happy making a bowl and going for their 11th win of the season.

I suspect Colorado is more interested in hitting the transfer portal hard with Deion Sanders and company.  There are a lot of distractions with Shedeur Sanders potentially the No. 1 overall pick and having the Heisman Trophy winner in Hunter.  But that just puts and even bigger target on their back, and you can bet BYU is licking its chops at the opportunity to take them down.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet BYU Saturday.

20* Iowa State/Miami Pop-Tarts Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 55.5

The Miami Hurricanes are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 8-3-1 OVER in all games this season with 56 or more combined points in 10 of their 12 games.  That makes for a 10-2 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 55.5-point total.

They went for 80 combined points with Syracuse, 84 with Duke, 97 with Louisville, 77 with Cal and 72 with Virginia Tech in five of their last eight games.  Iowa State's strength is on offense with Rocco Becht and elite receivers on the outside.  The Cyclones average 30.2 points per game and should be able to match Miami score for score.

The key here is that neither team has many players missing this game.  Even Heisman finalist Cam Ward said he would play for Miami.  WR Xavier Restrepo hasn't decided as of this writing.  I would imagine if Ward goes then everyone will follow suit.  The Hurricanes will likely be without CB Jadais Richard, CB Dyoni HIll and DE Elijah Alston due to injuries, though.

The Cyclones have injuries of their own on defense.  S Malik Verdon is unlikely to play.  LB Caleb Bacon isn't expected back from injury.  DE Tyler Onyedim is in the transfer portal, as are DE Kenard Snyder and DE Trent Jones.  They'll be trying to stop a Miami offense that ranks 1st in scoring at 44.2 points per game, 1st in total offense at 538.2 yards per game and 1st at 7.6 yards per play.

Iowa State and its opponents have combined for at least 59 points in five of its last nine games, including 51 or more in seven of those.  Arizona State, without its best receiver, just put up 45 points and 464 total yards on the Cyclones in the Big 12 Championship Game.  And Iowa State hasn't seen an offense nearly as potent as Miami all season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Texas Tech/Arkansas Liberty Bowl No-Brainer on Texas Tech +1.5

There is a lot going on with this bowl game between Texas Tech and Arkansas in terms of transfers and opt-outs.  But after going through them all, it clearly looks like Arkansas has more losses and bigger losses that they will have to deal with than Texas Tech does.

Arkansas will be without its top three receivers, its top two running backs, four starting offensive linemen, two starting defensive backs, a starting safety and a starting LB and three defensive linemen.  They are down to just six healthy scholarship offensive linemen.  It really seems like head coach Sam Pittman is almost punting on this bowl game at this point.

It's only fair that I list all the losses for Texas Tech as well.  They will be without starting QB Behren Morton, but I liked what I saw from freshman QB Will Hammond, who saw some action this season and impressed in the 2H against TCU.  Leading receiver Josh Kelly and starting T Ty Buchanan will be out, and the Red Raiders will also have two new coordinators.

But RB Tahj Brooks is listed as RB1 on the bowl depth chart, and it would be huge for them if he does give it a go.  Brooks rushed for 1,505 yards and 17 TD while averaging 5.3 per carry for the Red Raiders this season.

Arkansas will have starting QB Taylor Greene, but Texas Tech has been elite at defending dual-threat QB's this season.  I also like their momentum to finish the season going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their final four games including a 52-15 beat down of West Virginia in the finale.

Simply put, I think Texas Tech wants to be here more than Arkansas does and their personnel losses aren't nearly as big as the losses for the Razorbacks.  Head coach Joey McGuire clearly goes 'all in' for bowl games as he is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS at Texas Tech with a 42-25 win over Ole Miss as 3-point dogs in 2022 and a 34-14 win over Cal as 3-point favorites last year.  Bet Texas Tech Friday.

20* Georgia Tech/Vanderbilt Birmingham Bowl No-Brainer on UNDER 51.5

This game will be played at a snail's pace.  Vanderbilt ranks 130th out of 134 teams in tempo snapping the ball every 30.0 seconds.  Georgia Tech ranks 84th snapping the ball every 27.0 seconds.  There will be fewer possessions in this game than most, thus points will be very hard to come by.

The forecast is also good for the UNDER.  There are expected to be 10-15 MPH winds with a greater than 70% chance of precipitation at Protective Stadium in Birmingham, AL Saturday.

Both defenses have been pretty solid and are a big reason these teams had such successful seasons.  Vanderbilt allows 23.1 points per game while Georgia Tech allows 24.8 points per game.  While the Yellow Jackets have a pretty good offense, the Commodores do not, ranking 123rd in the country in total offense at 319.4 yards per game and 103rd at 5.3 yards per play.

But Georgia Tech's offense is going to be missing several key players that will hamper them on that side of the ball.  They will be without leading receiver Eric Singleton, who has 56 receptions for 754 yards and 3 TD on the season.  They will also be without LT Corey Robinson and backup LT Jordan Brown.  

The Commodores have very few opt-outs or transfers.  They will only possibly be missing three guys, but two of them are on offense in OT Gunnar Hansen and TE Eli Stowers, who leads the team with 45 receptions for 583 yards and 4 TD.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Oklahoma/Navy Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Navy +3

Navy QB Blake Horvath played the 2nd half of the season injured.  He finally got healthy for their last game and it has made all the difference for the Midshipmen, who have one of the most explosive offenses in school history this season.

Navy took on a East Carolina team that has won four in a row and in their second-to-last game and handled them 34-20.  The Midshipmen outgained the Pirates 458 to 350, or by 108 total yards. Horvath returned against Army in their finale to lead them to the Commander-in-Chief Trophy.  

The Midshipmen blasted the Black Knights 31-13 while outgaining them 378 to 178 for the game, or by 200 total yards.  Horvath rushed for 204 yards and 2 TD on 25 carries while also throwing for 107 yards and 2 TD in one of his best games of the season to show he is fully healthy heading into the bowl game.  They handed Army just their 2nd loss of the season.

Now the Midshipmen have their sights set on the Oklahoma Sooners in the Armed Forces Bowl, which will be a big home-field advantage for them in Fort Worth.  Oklahoma clearly isn't taking this game seriously with all their transfers and opt-outs, and the wrong team is favored here.

The Sooners will be without starting QB Jackson Arnold, five of their best receivers, their starting TE, two starting CB's and RB Jovantae Barnes.  They will also be without their two best defenders in LB Danny Stutsman and S Billy Bowman.  If WR Deion Burks cannot go, the Sooners' options at receiver will be eight freshmen for backup QB Michael Hawkins, who is more of a runner than a thrower.

This Oklahoma offense is absolutely dreadful and will be in worse shape than they have been all season heading into this bowl game.  The Sooners rank 120th in total offense at 322.8 yards per game, 126th at 4.8 yards per play and 94th in scoring at 24.3 points per game.  Nothing will come easy for them against Navy, which just held the best rushing team in the country in Army to 113 yards on 39 attempts.  Bet Navy Friday.

15* Arkansas State/Bowling Green Ventures Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Bowling Green -7

Bowling Green has minimal opt-outs.  Star TE Harold Fannin Jr. is going to be a first-round pick in the NFL Draft but decided to play.  That's huge for their offense as Fannin is not only the best TE in the country, but one of the best receivers overall.  He has 100 receptions for 1,342 yards and 9 TD this season.  He needs 11 receiving yards and 12 receptions to break the all-time records for tight ends, and I think QB Connor Bazelak will force feed him against this awful Arkansas State defense.

We've seen what this Bowling Green offense is capable of scoring at least 27 points in eight of its 12 games this season.  That includes 27 points against Penn State and 20 against Texas A&M, which is very impressive against those two defenses.  They nearly upset both of those teams losing by 7 to Penn State and by 6 to Texas A&M both on the road.

Arkansas State is one of the most fraudulent bowl teams I've ever seen.  The Red Wolves average 385.9 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play on offense, while allowing 461.6 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play on defense.  They are getting outgained by 76 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play on the season, which are numbers that you would see from a 3-9 or 4-8 team rather than one that is 7-5 like the Red Wolves.

We've seen Arkansas State get waxed when they have stepped up in class this season.  They lost 52-7 to Iowa State, 41-9 to Texas State and 55-19 to Louisiana.  I think they get waxed one last time here against a motivated Bowling Green team that will have all hands on deck.  Arkansas State head coach Butch Jones has stated he's more focused on next season than this bowl game with many of his comments leading up to it.  Bet Bowling Green in the Ventures Bowl Thursday.

20* Arkansas State/Bowling Green Ventures Bowl Total DOMINATOR on OVER 50

Arkansas State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Red Wolves rank 19th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.8 seconds on offense.  They have one of the worst defenses in the country to go along with a decent offense.

The Red Wolves rank 66th in total offense at 385.9 yards per game.  They have solid balance averaging 159 rushing yards per game and 227 passing.  Their defense is dreadful, ranking 129th in the country allowing 461.6 yards per game and 131st allowing 6.9 yards per play.  They have almost no opt outs but will be without starting CB Dontay Joyder and DE Jayden Jones.

Bowling Green has minimal opt-outs.  Star TE Harold Fannin Jr. is going to be a first-round pick in the NFL Draft but decided to play.  That's huge for their offense as Fannin is not only the best TE in the country, but one of the best receivers overall.  He has 100 receptions for 1,342 yards and 9 TD this season.  He needs 11 receiving yards and 12 receptions to break the all-time records for tight ends, and I think QB Connor Bazelak will force feed him against this awful Arkansas State defense.

We've seen what this Bowling Green offense is capable of scoring at least 27 points in eight of its 12 games this season.  That includes 27 points against Penn State and 20 against Texas A&M, which is very impressive against those two defenses.  I think the Falcons can do the heavy lifting here, and I expect Arkansas State to have enough success on offense to get this thing up and OVER this short total of 50. Bet the OVER in the Ventures Bowl Thursday.

15* Rutgers/K-State Rate Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Rutgers +7

Greg Schiano is one of the best bowl coaches in college football.  He has led Rutgers to a 6-2 record in bowl games in his coaching career.  I'm certainly liking taking the +7 with the Scarlet Knights here against the Kansas State Wildcats in the Rate Bowl given Schiano's track record.

I also like the fact that Rutgers hardly has any opt-outs or transfers.  Several players who were expected to opt out have said they are going to play in the bowl game.  The only big loss is their defensive coordinator, but they may be better off with Schiano calling the defensive plays anyways.

Rutgers finished strong going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its final four games and nearly went 4-0 blowing a lead in the final seconds to Illinois.  They upset Minnesota 26-19 as 6.5-point home dogs, upset Maryland as 3.5-point road dogs and upset Michigan State 41-14 as 1.5-point road dogs.

Kansas State has some big-time opt-outs and transfers.  Both RB DJ Giddens and CB Jacob Parrish have declared for the NFL Draft and will not play.  The loss of Giddens is a huge blow considering he has rushed for 1,343 yards and 7 TD while averaging 6.6 per carry.  He is almost their entire offense.  They will also be without RT Carver Willis and WR Keagan Johnson, who has 29 receptions for 359 yards and is their second-leading receiver just ahead of Giddens, who has 21 receptions for 258 yards.

Kansas State QB Avery Johnson has struggled with accuracy and turnovers.  He completes just 59.1% of his passes with a 22-to-9 TD/INT ratio.  He is a threat to run, and I think that Schiano will come up with the proper game plan to spy him and not allow him to run much.  The Wildcats have been overvalued all season going just 4-8 ATS in their 12 games, and I think they are being overvalued again here as a 7-point favorite against a Rutgers team that wants to be here.  The Wildcats have questionable motivation especially with all the opt-outs.  Bet Rutgers in the Rate Bowl Thursday.

15* Pitt/Toledo Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 49.5

From a tempo standpoint alone this total is too low.  Then you throw in the fact that it will be played in perfect conditions inside the dome at Ford Field and it's definitely too low.  There is tremendous value on the OVER 49.5 between Pittsburgh and Toledo in the GameAbove Sports Bowl Thursday.

Pittsburgh ranks 2nd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.4 seconds only trailing South Florida in that category.  The Panthers will be up against a Toledo team that ranks 13th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.4 seconds.  There are going to be a ton of possessions in this game, which means more opportunities for points.

The up-tempo offense has paid dividends for the Panthers who are scoring 31.8 points per game with their best offense of the Pat Narduzzi era.  But it has also led to some of the worst defensive numbers of the Narduzzi era, giving up 26.8 points per game this season.  Toledo likes to throw a lot of deep balls, and the Panthers' biggest weakness was against the deep ball this season.

Both teams have more important opt outs on defense than on offense.  Toledo will have its starting QB, and there's a chance Pitt will have its starting QB with Eli Holstein sitting the last few games due to injury, but he may return.  RB Desmond Reid will return after missing the finale with an injury.  Narduzzi said they should be healthier for their bowl game than they were in the regular season finale and expects at least 90% of his seniors to suit up.  He sounded optimistic about Holstein's chances.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

25* CFB Bowl TOTAL OF THE YEAR on USF/San Jose State OVER 61.5

The South Florida Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 20.2 seconds.  They play a San Jose State team that also plays super fast, ranking 11th in tempo at 23.4 seconds in between snaps.  It's safe to say the Hawaii Bowl will see as many possessions as any bowl game this season, and thus more opportunities for points in what should be one of the highest scoring games of bowl season.

The OVER is 5-1 in South Florida's last six games overall.  The Bulls combined for 60 points with UAB, 65 points with FAU, 83 points with Charlotte, 93 points with Tulsa and 63 points with Rice.  In their final three games of the season, the Bulls averaged 50.0 points per game and 565.7 total yards per game.

San Jose State boasts a high-octane passing attack.  The Spartans rank 5th in passing at 325.2 yards per game.  They'll be up against a San Jose State defense that ranks 128th allowing 278.7 passing yards per game and 119th allowing 436.6 total yards per game.

Both teams have key defenders in the transfer portal who may not play.  San Jose State could be without both starting CB's DJ Harvey and Michael Dansby, while South Florida could be without starting S Tawfiq Byard and starting DT Doug Blue-Eli.  Bet the OVER in the Hawaii Bowl Tuesday.

20* South Florida/San Jose State Hawaii Bowl No-Brainer on South Florida +4.5

South Florida head coach Alex Golesh has shown his hand about how much making a bowl game and performing in it means to him.  In his first season last year, the Bulls had to win their final game of the season to get bowl eligible.  They went on to beat Syracuse 45-0 as 3-point underdogs in the Boca Raton Bowl.

The Bulls needed another big finish this season to get bowl eligible.  They won four out of five games with their only loss coming to Navy, and the four wins all came by double-digits and by an average of 25.3 points per game.  Because they clinched bowl eligibility with one game remaining, it made their game against Rice in the regular season finale meaningless, and they played like it in a 35-28 defeat.

I think that loss to an underrated Rice team has them undervalued head heading into their bowl game.  Now they are catching 4.5 points against the San Jose State Spartans, who went 7-5 this season but I wasn't all that impressed with them down the stretch.  They lost three of their final five games with a 23-point loss at Fresno State and an 11-point home loss to UNLV where they were held to just 114 total yards.

Now the Spartans are going to be without their best player in WR Nick Nash, who has opted out of this bowl game to get ready for the NFL.  Nash may be the best receiver in the country and is irreplaceable for the Spartans.  He has 104 receptions for 1,382 yards and 16 TD this season.  Defensively, the Spartans could be without both starting CB's in DJ Harvey and Michael Dansby, who are in the transfer portal.

I don't think the Spartans have the firepower to keep up with South Florida in this one without Nash.  The Bulls averaged 50.0 points per game and 565.7 total yards per game in their final three games of the season.  They play at the fastest tempo in the country snapping the ball every 20.2 seconds.  They wear down their opponents, and they will wear down this San Jose State defense for four quarters.

South Florida has great balance ranking 28th in rushing at 191.2 yards per game and 69th in passing at 226.8 yards per game.  But their bread and butter is running the football and has been down the stretch.  That makes this a great matchup for them up against a San Jose State defense that allowed 170 or more rushing yards in six of their final nine games this season.  Bet South Florida in the Hawaii Bowl Tuesday.

15* Northern Illinois/Fresno State Potato Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Northern Illinois -3

Fresno State has been hit as hard as almost anyone in terms of starters who won't be playing either due to the transfer portal or opt outs.  The Bulldogs will be without starting QB Mikey Keene, two starting WR's in Jalen Moss and Raylen Sharpe, three starting CB's in Alzillion Hamilton, Julian Neal and Cam Lockridge, two starting DT's in Gavriel Lightfoot and Jacob Holmes and starting LB Phoenix Jackson.

So the Bulldogs have been decimated especially on defense.  There starting WR's for the bowl game have a combined four receptions, and they will be starting a backup QB.  Northern Illinois is a run-heavy team that will be able to exploit this decimated Fresno State defense.

The Huskies have plenty of transfers and opt outs of their own, but they haven't been hit as hard as Fresno State.  They will be without starting QB Ethan Hampton, starting WR Trayvon Rudolph, starting S Santana Banner, starting DT Skyler Gill-Howard and starting DE Jalonnie Williams due to the transfer portal.

Josh Hoist will start at quarterback and has some experience backing up Hampton when he got injured earlier this season.  He completed 47-of-81 passes while also rushing for 165 yards on 33 carries for an average of 5.0 per carry.  They will ride Hoist on the ground a lot in this one, and I think it will be a very effective game plan against this soft Fresno State defense.  Bet Northern Illinois Monday.

20* Clemson/Texas TNT No-Brainer on Clemson +12

No question Texas has an elite defense. But the Longhorns have struggled on offense ever since Quinn Ewers got hurt, and he still doesn't look right.  He fails to show up in big games and looked scared against Georgia and their backup QB in the SEC Championship Game.

Texas managed just 19 points against Georgia, 17 points against Texas A&M and 20 points against Arkansas in three of its final four games to close out the season.  If the Longhorns don't get to 30, which I don't think they will, it's going to be very hard for them to cover this 12-point spread.

Clemson played a tough schedule this season that included two SEC opponents in Georgia and South Carolina, so the Tigers won't be intimidated at all.  They will also be playing with a big chip on their shoulder because nobody thought they deserved to be here, and nobody plays the underdog role better than Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney.  He lives for situations like these.

Clemson put up 419 total yards on a very good South Carolina defense in their regular season finale.  They jumped out to a 24-7 halftime lead on SMU before taking their foot off the gas in the ACC Championship Game, but came up clutch with a game-winning FG in the final seconds.

I trust Clemson QB Cade Klubnik to make more plays than Ewers or whoever is under center for Texas.  Klubnik quietly had a fantastic season throwing for 3,303 yards with a 33-to-5 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 458 yards and seven scores.  Klubnik also has the mental advantage over Ewers after beating him 52-34 in the Texas Class 6A State Championship in high school.  Bet Clemson Saturday.

15* Indiana/Notre Dame ABC ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +7.5

The Indiana Hoosiers went 11-1 this season and flew under the radar all season.  They are flying under the radar again as 7.5-point underdogs to Notre Dame in the 12-team playoff.

Indiana ranks 2nd in scoring offense at 43.3 points per game and 6th in scoring defense at 14.7 points per game, outscoring opponents by 28.6 points per game on the season.  That is one of the best marks in the entire country.  They have no weaknesses and their numbers are elite across the board on both sides of the football.

Notre Dame also went 11-1 this season, but the Fighting Irish are getting much more credit heading into the 12-team playoff despite that only ranked 10 spots tougher than what Indiana faced.  The finished +26.2 points per game in scoring margin.

Notre Dame didn't have to face very many great offenses like Indiana this season.  When they did, they struggled against both Louisville and USC defending the pass.  They allowed 360 passing yards and 557 total yards to USC and 264 passing yards and 437 total yards to Louisville.

Notre Dame needs to be able to run the football to be successful, and Indiana is very stingy against the run.  Indeed, the Hoosiers rank 1st in the country allowing just 70.8 rushing yards per game and 2nd allowing 2.5 yards per rush.  Bet Indiana Friday.

20* Ohio/Jacksonville State Cure Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 54.5

The Ohio Bobcats will have everyone available for the Cure Bowl as of this writing just two days before the game against Jacksonville State on Friday.  Their offense really took off down the stretch leading them to the MAC Championship Game.

The Bobcats average 37.8 points per game during their six-game winning streak to close out the season.  And while I also like Ohio to win and cover, I like the OVER in this game more due to what Jacksonville State brings to the table on the other side.

Jacksonville State ranks 13th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.4 seconds.  The Jaguars have a high-powered offense that ranks 12th in scoring this season at 36.7 points per game.  They should have almost all hands on deck on offense.

Rich Rodriquez left for West Virginia, but offensive coordinator Rod Smith will serve as the interim so they'll still have their entire playbook on offense.  The same can be said for Ohio, where Tom Albin left for Charlotte, but offensive coordinator Brian Smith is the interim coach.  I love OVERS in bowl games when offensive coordinators take over as the interim, and we are getting that with both teams here.

Perhaps the biggest reason I'm on the OVER is because Jacksonville State has so many of their best defenders in the transfer portal, and last year players in the portal did not play for the Gamecocks.  They could be without S Zechariah Pyser (led defense in snaps), OLB Reginald Hughes (best pass rusher), S Fred Perry (1st-team C-USA), starting CB Jabari Mack and starting CB Fred Davis.  The only starter on offense in the portal is WR Cam Vaughn.

The forecast at Camping World Stadium in Orlando looks perfect for a shootout Friday.  Temps will be in the 70's with less than 10 MPH winds and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Cal/UNLV LA Bowl No-Brainer on UNLV PK

The UNLV Rebels went 10-3 this season with their losses coming to Boise State (twice) and Syracuse in OT.  Seven of their 10 wins came by double-digits as they were dominant against everyone else.

Syracuse is a common opponent, and Cal lost 33-25 at home to the Orange.  The Bears were outgained 471 to 391 by the Orange, or by 80 yards.

Cal will be without starting QB Fernando Mendoza, who is completing 68.7% of his passes on the season for 3,004 yards.  They could be without backup QB Chandler Rogers, who got hurt in their finale in a 38-6 loss at SMU.  It's no surprise Cal's worse performance of the season came without its starting QB in Mendoza. Plus, offensive coordinator Mike Bloesch is gone, and they will have a collaboration of staff calling plays.

Despite losing head coach Barry Odom, morale is still very high at UNLV with one of the best hires of the offseason in Dan Mullen.  Almost everyone for UNLV is expected to play, including two of their best defensive players in LB Jackson Woodard and CB Tony Grimes.  I think this team is on a mission to finish the Odom era strong as this is one of the most closely-knit teams in the country.  I expect them to get the job done against Cal and possibly a 3rd-string QB.  

It's also worth noting Cal leading receiver Nzyiah Hunter is in the transfer portal.  RB Jaivian Thomas sat out the last game against SMU with an injure.  LT Nick Morrow missed the finale and won't play in the bowl.  Starting LB Sioape Vatikani is questionable, as is starting MLB Cade Uluave, who missed the final three games.  

The Rebels haven't won a bowl game since 2000.  This group of players has accomplished a lot, but they want to put a stamp on it with their first bowl win in 24 years before many of them graduate or depart for different schools next season.  Bet UNLV in the LA Bowl Wednesday.

20* ISU/ASU Big 12 Championship No-Brainer on Iowa State +2.5

I could see this game listed at a PK if both teams were fully healthy.  But Arizona State lost one of its best players in WR Jordyn Tyson late in the win over Arizona last week, and now he is out for the season.  The Cyclones should be favored with no Tyson for ASU.

Tyson has 75 receptions for 1,101 yards and 10 TD for the Sun Devils this season.  In the last six games alone, Tyson has 50 receptions for 732 yards and 6 TD.  He leads the nation in receiving over the last nine weeks and just had 8 receptions for 143 yards against Arizona last week.

"What makes it more difficult is obviously he demands two people to cover him," head coach Kenny Dillingham said after praising the receiver for his run-blocking abilities. "So if people don't have to allocate two people, then they can load the box. So you got to find more creative ways to win those one-one-one matchups".

The two players tied for second on the team in targets aren't even wide receivers.  They are RB Cam Skattebo (35 receptions, 468 yards) and TE Chamon Metayer (28 receptions, 285 yards).  Both have 41 targets this season.

Iowa State's game plan was already going to be to load the box and try and stop Skattebo.  Their job gets 10X easier now knowing they don't have to deal with Tyson on the outside.  The Cyclones will load up to stop Skattebo, and I don't think QB Leavitt can beat them without Tyson.

Dillingham has done a tremendous job getting Arizona State to the Big 12 Championship despite being picked to finish last by the media.  This season is a success no matter what happens in this game.  I think the mentality is different for Matt Campbell and Iowa State.

Campbell has stated Big 12 Championships are the standard.  The Cyclones have come close in recent seasons and come up short to Oklahoma and Texas.  They no longer have to deal with those juggernauts and now have a golden opportunity to finally get that first elusive Big 12 championship, and I trust Campbell and company to make the right calls to make it happen against a team they can handle in ASU.  

Common opponents tell the story here which team is better.  Iowa State and Arizona State have six common opponents.  They are both 4-2 SU against them.  But the Cyclones have outgained those six teams by an average of 47 yards per game, while the Sun Devils have been outgained by 17 yards per game against those same six teams.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

25* CFB Conference Championship GAME OF THE YEAR on UNLV +4.5

UNLV was at a huge disadvantage the first time they played Boise State back on October 25th.  They were on a short week while Boise State was coming off a bye week playing on a Friday night.  The Rebels gave the Broncos everything they wanted in a 29-24 loss as 4-point dogs.

There were some takeaways from that game that make me believe the Rebels can pull off the upset in the rematch.  For starters, the Rebels held Heisman Trophy contender Ashton Jeanty to 128 rushing yards on 33 carries, an average of just 3.9 yards per carry.  That 3.9 yards per carry was the lowest Jeanty averaged against any opponent all season.

UNLV could have easily packed it in after that loss to Boise State.  Instead, the Rebels have gone 4-0 since to put themselves back in position to make the 12-team playoff.  They are in a 'win and in' scenario now, and I think they are ready to finally take the leap and prove they belong.

Boise State has been fortunate not to get knocked off here down the stretch.  They beat Nevada 28-21 as 23.5-point home favorites four games ago.  They were outgained 483 to 456 by San Jose State in a misleading final three weeks ago.  They escaped with a 17-13 win at Wyoming as 22.5-point favorites two weeks ago.  And they failed to cover in a 34-18 home win over Oregon State as 17.5-point favorites last week.  They really should be 0-4 ATS in their last four games.

Holding Jeanty to 3.9 per carry was no fluke as UNLV is elite at stopping the run.  The Rebels rank 10th in the country allowing 101.1 rushing yards per game and 15th allowing 3.2 per carry this season.  And that's why this is such a great matchup for the Rebels because the Broncos need to be able to run the ball to be effective because QB Maddux Madsen and the passing game is the weakness.  

He only completing 45% of his passes against Nevada, 53.8% against Wyoming and 51.5% against Oregon State in three of his past four games.  UNLV has far and away the better QB in Hajj-Malik Williams.  He has a 17-to-4 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 768 yards and 9 TD on 5.9 per carry this season.  I trust Williams to make more plays than Maddux in the rematch.  Bet UNLV Friday.

25* CFB Conference Championship TOTAL OF THE YEAR on UNLV/Boise State UNDER 59.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  After meeting in the MWC Championship Game last season, and meeting once in the regular season this season, this will be the 3rd meeting between UNLV and Boise State in a year.  It's safe to say they know each other inside and out, and that really favors defense.

The matchup also sets up well for an UNDER.  Both teams rely heavily on running the football which keeps the clock moving.  Well, the strength of both defenses is stopping the run.  That was the takeaway from Boise State's 29-24 win in the first meeting this season that saw just 53 combined points.

The Rebels held Heisman Trophy contender Ashton Jeanty to 128 rushing yards on 33 carries, an average of just 3.9 yards per carry.  That 3.9 yards per carry was the lowest Jeanty averaged against any opponent all season. Holding Jeanty to 3.9 per carry was no fluke as UNLV is elite at stopping the run.  The Rebels rank 10th in the country allowing 101.1 rushing yards per game and 15th allowing 3.2 per carry this season.

UNLV also needs to be able to run the ball to be effective on offense.  The Rebels rank 4th in the country in rushing averaging 254.1 yards per game but just 116th in passing at 179.9 yards per game.  Well, Boise State ranks 17th in the country against the run allowing just 106.6 rushing yards per game.  The Broncos are also 19th allowing just 3.4 yards per carry.

That first meeting between UNLV and Boise State was played in a dome in Las Vegas on a fast track and still only saw 53 combined points.  The rematch will be outdoors in the cold at Boise State with temps in the 30's Friday night.  I don't think that is being factored into this line enough, and a total of 59.5 is way too high for the rematch.

UNLV and its opponents have gone for 58 or fewer combined points in five of its last six games.  Boise State and its opponents have gone for 53 or fewer points in five of its last seven games.  Boise State ranks 89th in tempo while UNLV ranks 78th, so both are well into the bottom half of the country in terms of seconds in between snaps on offense.  Both defenses will have their way.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Tulane/Army AAC Championship ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 47.5

No game this season will be played at a slow pace than this AAC Championship Game.  Army ranks dead last (134th) in tempo snapping the ball every 33.9 seconds.  Tulane ranks 131st snapping the ball every 30.1 seconds.  There won't be many possessions in this game, and thus there won't be many opportunities for points.

Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall is elite at stopping the triple-option.  He faced Army twice the last two years while at Troy and beat them 19-0 in 2023 and 10-9 in 2022.  He beat Navy 35-0 this season a couple weeks ago at Tulane.  So Sumrall has held the triple-option teams to a combined 9 points in three meetings over the last three seasons, or an average of 3.0 points per game.

Both offenses need to be able to run the ball to be effective, and both defenses are great at stopping the run.  Tulane averages 212.9 rushing yards per game, and Army only allows 103.0 rushing yards per game.  Army averages 312.5 rushing yards per game, and Tulane only allows 124.2 rushing yards per game.  Tulane held Navy to 100 rushing yards on 35 attempts and 113 total yards in that 35-0 victory.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* New Mexico/Hawaii MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on New Mexico -2.5

The New Mexico Lobos are 5-6 in Bronco Mendenhall's first season on the job.  Now they are one win away from bowl eligibility and will be highly motivated to get that all-important 6th victory.

While the Lobos are motivated, the Hawaii Warriors sit at 4-7 on the season and eliminated from bowl contention.  I don't like their mindset, especially after watching them get blasted by a mediocre Utah State team last time out.  They lost 55-10 at Utah State and allowed 580 yards to the Aggies with only 309 themselves, getting outgained by 171 yards.

They lost QB Brayden Schager late in that game to injury and he may not be able to play in this game due to injury.  Whether he plays or not, like New Mexico to win this game and cover.  I just don't think Hawaii is very good and they're definitely not in as good a frame of mind as the Lobos.

New Mexico has one of the best offenses in the country.  They score 33.8 points per game while ranking 4th in total offense at 484.5 yards per game and 7th at 7.0 yards per play.  They have tremendous balance rushing for 249 yards per game and throwing for 236 yards per game behind one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country in Dampier.

Hawaii ranks 78th against the run allowing 153 yards per game and 87th allowing 4.5 yards per carry.  Their run D has been particularly poor of late, allowing 290 rushing yards to UNLV and 321 to Utah State in their last two games.  They definitely let go of the rope against Utah State, and they will let go of it again if New Mexico gets an early lead.  Bet New Mexico Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Air Force -3.5

Air Force has been a different team down the stretch.  The Falcons are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They upset Fresno State 36-28 as 9.5-point home dogs, upset Oregon State 28-0 as 3-point home dogs and upset Nevada 22-19 as 3-point road dogs.

While the Falcons are improving a ton defensively, it's the fact that they have found a running game that has made them more competitive.  Air Force rushed for 344 yards on Fresno State, 270 yards on Oregon State and 318 yards on Nevada.

That's bad news for San Diego State, which cannot stop the run here down the stretch and looks to have pretty much quit.  The Aztecs are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games.  They lost 56-24 at Boise State, 21-16 at home to New Mexico, 41-20 at UNLV and 41-20 at Utah State.

The Aztecs allowed 541 total yards including 219 rushing to Boise, then 300 rushing to New Mexico, 253 rushing to UNLV and 322 rushing to Utah State.  It's safe to say their defense cannot stop the run, and they are probably out of gas playing for a 6th consecutive week.  I give them almost zero chance of stopping this Air Force triple-option, which they haven't faced yet this season.  Bet Air Force Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan State ML -125

I love the spot for the Michigan State Spartans Saturday.  They sit at 5-6 on the season and one win shy of bowl eligibility in Jonathan Smith's first season on the job.  The Spartans will be extra motivated to make a bowl and to get a win for their Seniors on Senior Day.

Rutgers is already bowl eligible at 6-5 on the season and won't be nearly as motivated.  I think it's a tough spot for the Scarlet Knights after blowing a 1-point lead in the final seconds at home in a 38-31 loss to Illinois.  They have played three straight hard-fought games the last three weeks against Illinois, Maryland and Minnesota and I question how much they'll have left in the tank here.

Michigan State has played a much tougher schedule than Rutgers this season.  The Spartans have played the 26th-ranked strength of schedule while the Scarlet Knights have played the 54th.  And Michigan State still has put up better numbers than Rutgers despite the tougher schedule.

The Spartans are dead even in yards per play differential averaging 5.4 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.4 per play on defense.  Rutgers is has a -0.7 yards per play differential, averaging 5.4 yards per play on offense but giving up 6.1 yards per play on defense.  The Spartans are the better team, have the motivational advantage and are at home here.  Bet Michigan State on the Money Line Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on NC State +3.5

I love the spot for NC State Saturday.  The Wolfpack sit at 5-6 on the season and one win away from bowl eligibility.  They are clearly fighting to become bowl eligible here down the stretch, and I like their mental state much better than that of North Carolina right now.

The Tar Heels sit at 6-5 this season and already bowl eligible.  Mack Brown has announced he is stepping down following a ugly 41-21 loss at Boston College last week.  The Tar Heels were outgained 480-212 by the Eagles, or by 268 total yards.  It really looked like they just quit, and I don't trust many of their players to show up Saturday with their futures in limbo now.

NC State took Wake Forest, Syracuse, Georgia Tech and Duke to the wire in four tough losses here down the stretch.  They also upset Cal on the road as 9-point dogs and blasted Stanford by 31 at home as 9.5-point favorites.  Last time out they only lost 30-29 as 7.5-point dogs at Georgia Tech, which beat Miami.  They actually outgained the Yellow Jackets in that game.

NC State should be the fresher team here after playing Georgia Tech last Thursday. They get an extra two days to prep for this game, and they also had a bye prior to that GT game.  They couldn't possibly be more fresh, more prepared and more focused for a win here.  I think they way they've fought down the stretch will pay off here with an outright win over a UNC team with questionable motivation.  Bet NC State Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UAB/Charlotte OVER 60

I like taking OVERS between two teams late in the season that have nothing but pride to play for because they have already been eliminated from bowl contention.  These games tend to be played much more loose and free with the offenses having the advantage over the defense.  This applies to UAB (3-8) and Charlotte (4-7) Saturday.

UAB is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Blazers play fast and they play no defense.  They rank 33rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 24.6 seconds.  They rank 121st in scoring defense allowing 34.7 points per game.  And UAB has played much better offensively since switching to Jalen Kitna at QB, averaging 428.2 total yards per game and 33 points per game in their last five games.  The OVER is 7-1-1 in UAB's last nine games overall with 54 or more combined points in all nine games.

Charlotte is also a team with a terrible defense.  The 49ers rank 124th in scoring defense allowing 35.8 points per game.  I think both offenses will have plenty of success even though these aren't two of the best offenses in the country.  Charlotte is 5-1 OVER in its last six games overall with 58 or more combined points in five of those six games.  There will be no wind or rain today in Charlotte so the forecast looks great for a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Old Dominion/Arkansas State OVER 58.5

There are going to be a lot of possessions in this game between Old Dominion and Arkansas State Saturday because both play fast.  The Monarchs rank 12th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.4 seconds, while the Red Wolves rank 20th snapping it every 24.0 seconds.

Both defenses leave a lot to be desired.  Arkansas State ranks 109th allowing 31.5 points per game, 124th allowing 453.6 yards per game and 128th allowing 6.8 yards per play.  Old Dominion ranks 84th allowing 27.6 points per game, 106th allowing 410.5 yards per game and 87th allowing 5.8 yards per play.

This Old Dominion offense has been humming lately and will get whatever it wants against Arkansas State.  The OVER is 3-1 in Monarchas' last four games overall beating Georgia Southern 47-19 for 66 combined points behind 560 total yards, losing 28-20 at Appalachian State for 48 combined points despite gaining 498 yards, losing 35-32 to James Madison for 67 combined points and losing 42-35 to Marshall despite 513 total yards.

Arkansas State has gone OVER the total in three of its last five combining for 72 points with Southern Miss, 65 with Troy and 74 with Louisiana.  They did only combine for 49 points with Monroe, but the Warhawks play at the 2nd-lowest tempo in the country.

I think this game will be played freely with neither team having much to play for.  Old Dominion has been eliminated from bowl contention at 4-7.  Arkansas State has already clinched bowl eligibility at 7-4, but they have already been eliminated from Sun Belt Championship contention.  I like backing OVERS late in the season between two teams with nothing to play for.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Middle Tennessee/FIU OVER 51.5

I like taking OVERS between two teams late in the season that have nothing but pride to play for because they have already been eliminated from bowl contention.  These games tend to be played much more loose and free with the offenses having the advantage over the defense.  This applies to Middle Tennessee (3-8) and Florida International (3-8) Saturday.

I think we'll see a shootout today with both offenses opening up the entire playbook against two suspect defenses. The forecast looks great for a shootout in Florida with temps in the 70's, only 10 MPH winds and a small chance of precipitation.

Florida International ranks 76th in scoring defense at 25.9 points per game and 73rd allowing 370.4 yards per game.  Middle Tennessee ranks 119th in scoring defense allowing 34.2 points per game, 122nd allowing 447.9 yards per game and 126th allowing 6.6 yards per play.

Middle Tennessee is 8-3 to the OVER 51.5 on the season combining for 54 or more points with its opponents in eight of its 11 games.  FIU is 7-3 OVER in its last 10 games overall with 51 or more combined points in seven of those 10 games.  This is a very low total for a game involving these two teams with nothing to play for.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on South Florida/Rice OVER 53.5

The South Florida Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in the entire country in tempo and by a wide margin, snapping the ball every 20.5 seconds.  They have an elite offense and a vulnerable defense.  This total of 53.5 is very low for a game involving South Florida right now.

The Bulls have topped this total themselves in their last two games.  They beat Charlotte 59-24 for 83 combined points and racked up 425 rushing yards in the process.  They beat Tulsa 63-30 last week and racked up 715 total yards.  I don't expect them to take their foot off the gas against Rice this week, either.

Rice has a very good quarterback in EJ Warner.  The Owls have really been through a gauntlet of opposing defenses here down the stretch and have gone under the total in four of their last five.  I think that has provided us value to back an OVER in a game involving Rice, which I did last week with success in a 40-14 loss to UAB with a closing total of 51.5.

Rice ranks in the top half of the country in tempo at 64th, so there are going to be a ton of possessions in this game.  Neither team has anything to play for as USF clinched a bowl last week, while Rice sits at 3-8 on the season with an interim head coach.  I love taking OVERS late in the season when nothing is at stake because it tends to favor offense over defense as both teams are loose and playing freely.

South Florida and its opponents have combined for 55 or more points in eight of its last 10 games.  Rice and South Florida combined for 71 points in their meeting last season.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 60's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on UTSA +7

The UTSA Roadrunners are one of the most improved teams in the country from the first half of the season until now.  After a 1-4 start, they have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and really should be 5-0 during this stretch.

The wins have been impressive.  It started with a 38-24 home win over FAU as 4.5-point favorites.  They went on to blow a 28-point lead to Tulsa in their next game losing 46-45 as 9.5-point favorites.  They could have easily packed it in at that point, but they have responded as well as possible and that's a reflection of their head coach.

They beat Memphis 44-36 as 7-point home dogs, and that's a 10-2 Memphis team that just beat Tulane. They crushed North Texas 48-27 as 1.5-point home favorites and crushed Temple 51-27 as 17-point favorites.  Their defense is improving, but their offense is hitting on all cylinders averaging 45.2 points per game over their last five.

The spot is a terrible one for Army. The Black Knights opened 9-0 this season against one of the softest schedules in the country. They finally stepped up in class last week and got blasted 49-14 at Notre Dame.  That loss eliminated them from 12-team playoff consideration, and I think it's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

That's especially the case with Army knowing they already have a spot in the AAC Championship Game against Tulane clinched.  They will be looking forward to that game if anything, making this a sandwich spot for the Black Knights.  I don't like their mental state coming into this one.

I also love the matchup for UTSA.  They are terrible against the pass, but that won't matter against Army.  The Roadrunners rank 9th in the country against the run allowing 100.5 rushing yards per game and 11th nationally allowing just 3.1 yards per carry.  They are equipped to stop triple-option teams like Army.  This is a game I fully expect the Roadrunners to win outright, but getting +7 with them is an absolute gift.  Bet UTSA Saturday.

20* Nebraska/Iowa NBC No-Brainer on Nebraska +4

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have a huge weight lifted off their shoulders.  They were previously on a 0-9 run when sitting on five wins looking for their 6th and bowl eligibility the last several seasons.  They got that monkey off their back with a dominant 44-25 win over Wisconsin last week, and now I expect them to be playing loose and freely today against their hated rivals in the Iowa Hawkeyes.

The Hawkeyes were fortunate Maryland QB Billy Edwards got hurt in the 1st quarter of their 29-13 win at Maryland last week.  It changed the entire game.  That result is making Iowa a bigger favorite than they should be against Nebraska this week.  It's also a Terrapins team that looks to have quit on the season.

Nebraska has a huge advantage over Iowa at quarterback this week.  5-star QB Dillon Raiola is getting comfortable with Dana Holgorsen as his coordinator, and the Huskers racked up 473 total yards on the Badgers last week.  Iowa is down to third-string QB Jackson Stratton.  He went just 10-of-14 passing for 76 yards against Maryland last week.

Iowa needs to be able to run the football to have success.  I know Matt Rhule will do everything he can to stack the box to try and stop Kaleb Johnson, who had 35 carries against Maryland last week with a long of 13.  If they stop Johnson, I don't think Stratton is good enough to beat them.  

Each of the last six meetings between Nebraska and Iowa have been decided by one score.  And this is the best Huskers team during this stretch that the Hawkeyes will have to deal with this season.  This is not close to the best Iowa team during this stretch.  Bet Nebraska Saturday.

25* MWC GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah State +6

Utah State has been competitive in five of its last six games with the lone exception being a 49-28 loss at Washington State.  They only lost by 16 to UNLV, by 5 to New Mexico, beat Wyoming by 2, crushed Hawaii 55-10 and dominated San Diego State 41-20.  

Those last two games were very impressive.  The Aggies racked up 580 total yards on Hawaii and held them to just 309, outgaining them by 271 yards.  Hawaii had been playing very well going into that game.  They racked up 488 more yards against San Diego State last week.

While Utah State sits at just 4-7 on the season, I think they'll be treating this as their bowl game.  They could have packed it in a lot sooner if they wanted to, but it just goes to show the character of this team to finish the way they have.

This is a tough spot for Colorado State.  Their dreams of making the Mountain West Championship Game were all but crushed with a 28-22 loss at Fresno State last week.  Now they no longer control their own destiny, instead they'll need to win this game and have UNLV lose at home to Nevada as a near 3-touchdown favorite.  That's not going to happen and they know it.

But Colorado State has been living on borrowed time all season.  The Rams are actually getting outgained by nearly 7 yards per game on the season.  Utah State is only getting outgained by roughly 5 yards per game on the season to compare.  These teams are much closer to even than this line would indicate, and getting +6 with the Aggies is tremendous value today.  Bet Utah State Friday.

20* Miami Ohio/Bowling Green ESPNU Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 42.5

The forecast is a big reason for this play on the UNDER.  Temps will be around 30 with 20-25 MPH winds and gusts as high as 40 MPH.  There's a lot at stake with a trip to the MAC Championship on the line for both teams, so it will be played close to the vest.

Both teams play slow.  Bowling Green ranks 118th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 29.0 seconds.  Miami ranks 120th in tempo snapping the ball every 29.0 seconds as well.  There will be very few possessions in this game, and both teams are led by their defenses.

One of the best players in the country that not many know about is Bowling Green TE Harold Fannin.  He leads the entire country in receiving with 92 receptions for 1,294 yards and 9 TD.  Fannin is questionable to play Friday and my best guess is he won't be healthy enough to play.  

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 27, 30 and 41 combined points in the last three.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Memphis/Tulane ESPN No-Brainer on Memphis +14

It's time to 'sell high' on the Tulane Green Wave.  Tulane is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  It's safe to say this is the peak of the market on the Green Wave now.  They don't have a lot to play for this week as they are already locked into the AAC Championship Game against Army.  They aren't likely to make the 12-team playoff with Boise State controlling its own fate.

The Green Wave have taken advantage of an easy schedule.  Their last three games were cake walks against Navy without QB Blake Horvath, and dead Temple and Charlotte teams.  They beat North Texas by 8 and Rice by 14 in the two games prior.  And the other two wins came against UAB and South Florida.

This is a big step up in class for Tulane having to face Memphis, which also is 9-2 this season.  While the Tigers have been eliminated from AAC Championship contention, then continue to play hard beating Rice 27-20 and UAB 53-18 in their last two games.  Now they want to prove that they can beat the top dogs in Tulane, and I think the Tigers will be as motivated as they've been for any game this season.

I know Memphis' best effort is good enough to stay within two touchdowns of Tulane.  Memphis is 13-4 SU in its last 17 meetings with Tulane with only one loss by more than 14 points.  That makes for a 16-1 system backing the Tigers pertaining to this 14-point spread.  Bet Memphis Thursday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Baylor -7.5

The Baylor 'buy' signs are high right now.  I've been riding this team in their last few games and will continue to ride them this week. The Bears are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Their offense is unstoppable right now averaging 45.8 points per game and 551 yards per game in their four consecutive wins and covers.

The fact of the matter is Houston cannot keep up with Baylor.  The Bears will get their points.  Houston has been held to 17 points or fewer in six of its 10 games this season.  The Cougars rank 133rd in scoring offense at 14.0 points per game.  That is absolutely atrocious in today's college football.

I think the Cougars hit an all-time low last week losing 27-3 to Arizona.  That was a previously dead Arizona team that couldn't stop anyone.  They had allowed 56 points to UCF in their previous game and held Houston to 3.  Their defense is decimated by injuries.

Houston has been able to hang with teams that play slow, defensive-minded football this season.  They haven't been able to hang with the better offenses they have faced that are more up-tempo like Baylor.  The Bears will test them in a big way as they rank 11th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.1 seconds.  The Cougars won't be able to keep up.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Total DOMINATOR on Boise State/Wyoming UNDER 57.5

This is strictly a play on the weather.  There is expected to be 20 MPH sustained winds in Laramie Saturday night with gusts up to 40 MPH.  Wind affects scoring more than any other weather element, and these teams are going to be forced to keep the ball on the ground in a defensive battle that keeps the clock moving for four quarters.

Wyoming will be able to stack the box to try and stop RB Ashton Jeanty without worry that Boise State will try to throw it much.  And I have no doubt Boise State is going to be able to stop this hapless Wyoming offense.

The Cowboys rank 119th in scoring offense at 20.4 points per game, 118th in total offense at 326.8 yards per game and 123rd at 4.9 yards per play.  Boise State ranks 13th in the country allowing 104.7 rushing yards per game and 17th at 3.3 per carry.  Wyoming is going to need to score at least 20 points for us to lose this UNDER, and I just don't seem them getting to 20.  

The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with 39 or fewer combined points in all five meetings.  Boise State and Wyoming have combined for 48 or fewer points in seven consecutive meetings, making for a 7-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 57.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on East Carolina +3

This is going to be a back and forth game with two of the Top 5 offenses in the country in terms of tempo.  But I think the difference is East Carolina will get one or two more stops than North Texas will because their defense is much better.

East Carolina's offense has taken off since switching quarterbacks to Katin Houser.  He has thrown for at least 269 yards in every game with a 14-to-6 TD/INT ratio in his last four games.  He led ECU to a 56-35 win over Temple, a 49-14 win over FAU and a 38-31 win at Tulsa.

Now Houser and company get to go up against one of the worst defenses in the country in North Texas.  The Mean Green rank 126th in scoring defense allowing 35.7 points per game and 126th in total defense allowing 458.1 yards per game.  Compare that to ECU, which allows 393.8 yards per game and 27.2 points per game, and it's easy to see that the Pirates have the much better defense in this one.

North Texas allowed 48 points to UTSA, 45 to Tulane and 52 to Memphis in three of its last four games coming in.  I don't think the Mean Green are all that motivated for a 6th win here knowing they can get it against lowly Temple next week to clinch bowl eligibility.  ECU has been rolling since making a coaching chance and the Pirates have all the momentum now.  The wrong team is favored in this game today.  Bet East Carolina Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah State -4

The Utah State Aggies (3-7) and San Diego Aztecs (3-7) are both eliminated from bowl contention.  But these teams are trending in opposite directions, and I trust Utah State to show up a lot more than I do San Diego State.  Plus, this is Senior Day for the Aggies, so they will want to send their seniors out winners.

Utah State has been competitive in four of its last five games with the lone exception being a 49-28 loss at Washington State.  They only lost by 16 to UNLV, by 5 to New Mexico, beat Wyoming by 2 and then crushed Hawaii 55-10 last week.  The Aggies racked up 580 total yards on Hawaii and held them to just 309, outgaining them by 271 yards.  Hawaii had been playing very well going into that game.

San Diego State has really been dominated in the box score in three straight games.  They lost 56-24 at Boise State while getting outgained 541 to 256 by the Broncos.  They only lost 21-16 at home to New Mexico, but that was a bigger blowout than the final score as the Lobos outgained them 475 to 341 but left a lot of points on the board.  And last week they lost 41-20 at UNLV while getting outgained 515 to 270 by the Rebels.

So San Diego State is allowing 510.3 yards per game and only averaging 289 yards per game on offense in their last three games.  They are getting outgained by 221.3 yards per game during this stretch.  I don't see it going any better for the Aztecs against this high-octane Utah State offense that finally showed they could play a little defense against Hawaii last week.  

The Aggies rank 8th in total offense at 463.9 yards per game and 32nd at 6.4 yards per play.  Compare that to the Aztecs, who rank 120th in total offense at 324.7 yards per game and 20th at 4.9 yards per play, and it's easy to see that the Aztecs can't keep up with them in this one.  Bet Utah State Saturday.

15* Tulsa/USF AAC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 60.5

Both Tulsa and South Florida are dead nut OVER teams and this should be a shootout Saturday afternoon.  South Florida ranks 1st in tempo in the entire country snapping the ball every 20.6 seconds.  Tulsa ranks 22nd in tempo snapping it ever 24.1 seconds, so this game is going to see a ton of plays and a ton of possessions and more opportunities for points as a result.

South Florida just ran it down Charlotte's throat last week rushing for 425 yards in a 59-24 victory and 83 combined points.  They are going to be able to do the same against a Tulsa defense that ranks 130th in scoring defense at 38.4 points per game, 127th in total defense at 458.1 yards per game and 128th at 6.7 yards per play.  Tulsa allowed 52 points to North Texas, 49 to Army, 45 to UTSA, 59 to UAB and 38 to ECU in five of its last six games, going 5-1 OVER in those six games.

Tulsa should find plenty of success on offense to help us get this OVER 60.5 home.  The Bulls rank 119th in total defense allowing 421.1 yards per game.  They are particularly poor against the pass, allowing 265.9 yards per game which ranks 126th in the country.  Tulsa QB Cooper Legas is a good dual-threat who threw for 293 yards and 3 TD against a pretty good ECU defense last week.  He also rushed for 43 yards on 13 carries in leading the Golden Hurricane to 31 points.

Tulsa and South Florida combined for 90 points in their last meeting.  The forecast looks great for another shootout with temps in the 60's, no wind and no precipitation this afternoon.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Colorado/Kansas FOX No-Brainer on Kansas +3

Kansas is one of the best 4-6 teams in the history of college football. Kansas is 1-5 in games decided by 6 points or less this season.  The other was a misleading 11-point loss to TCU.  The Jayhawks have had two bye weeks in the last month and are fresh and showing what they are capable of now.

Kansas is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games with the lone loss coming 29-27 as 9.5-point underdogs at Kansas State in a game they deserved to win.  They returned from their first bye with a 42-14 dismantling of Houston as 5-point home favorites.  They came back from their 2nd bye and upset Iowa State 45-36 as 2-point underdogs at Arrowhead Stadium.  And last week they handed BYU their first loss in a 17-13 road win as 3-point dogs.

This Kansas offense has taken off behind QB Jaylon Daniels and RB Devin Neal.  They put up 42 points and 467 total yards on a very good Houston defense.  They put up 27 points and 401 total yards on a very good Kansas State defense.  And most impressive yet was the 45 points and 532 total yards they put up against arguably the best defense in the Big 12 in Iowa State.

Now the Jayhawks have their sights set on knocking Colorado off from the top of the Big 12 ranks.  Like BYU, Colorado has benefited from close wins and a soft schedule. The Buffaloes have managed to not have to face the top three teams in the Big 12 outside themselves.  They needed a hail mary to beat Baylor, and they lost by 3 at home to Kansas State, which is arguably the best Big 12 team they have faced this season.

Kansas can get whatever it wants against this Colorado defense.  And the Jayhawks have two of the top CB's in the Big 12 to match up with Travis Hunter and these Colorado receivers.  I like the matchup for the Jayhawks, who will have a big home-field advantage after outscoring Iowa State and Houston a combined 87-50 in their last two home games.  Bet Kansas Saturday. 

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on ECU/North Texas OVER 73

Both East Carolina and North Texas are dead nuts OVER teams.  They both have elite offenses, play fast, and play little to no defense.  North Texas ranks 3rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.5 seconds.  East Carolina ranks 5th at 21.8 seconds between snaps.  You would be hard-pressed to find another game this season that is going to see more plays and possessions than this one.

The OVER is 5-0 in East Carolina's last five games overall with 63 or more combined points in all five.  Their offense is really humming right now putting up 56 against Temple, 49 against Florida Atlantic and 38 against Tulsa the last three weeks.  They have allowed at least 31 points in four of their last five games, and the only game they didn't was because FAU lost its starting QB early.

North Texas is 8-2 OVER in all games this season.  The Mean Green have gone for at least 67 combined points in seven of their 10 games this season.  They have allowed 45, 52 and 48 points in three of their last four games, and I suspect East Carolina will get into the 40's in this one.  The Mean Green rank 126th in total defense at 458.1 yards per game and 126th in scoring at 35.7 points per game.

The forecast looks good for a shootout with temps in the 70's, 12 MPH winds and no precipitation Saturday in Denton, TX.  This will be one of the most entertaining games of the season with these teams matching each other score for score for 60 minutes in a fast-paced game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* BYU/Arizona State ESPN No-Brainer on Arizona State -3

I faded BYU with success with Kansas +3 last week.  I'm fading the Cougars again this week as I still believe they are overvalued due to their fraudulent 9-1 record.  BYU is 4-1 in games decided by 6 points or less.  

They have been fortunate in close games all season, including a 1-point win over a bad Utah team and a 3-point win over a bad Oklahoma State team.  They finally had their luck run out last week, coming up a yard short in the red zone at the end of the game in a 17-13 loss to Kansas.  I think that's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

While BYU just had the wind taken out of their sails, Arizona State has all the momentum right now.  The Sun Devils have won three straight following their bye week with a 21-point win at Oklahoma State and a 4-point home win over UCF without star RB Cam Skattebo.

But Skattebo returned from injury last week to help lead the 24-14 upset at Kansas State.  The Sun Devils jumped out to a 21-0 lead and never looked back.  Skattebo had 117 yards from scrimmage and averages 152 scrimmage yards per game this season.  While Skattebo gets all the credit for this team, it's QB Sam Leavitt who has made the biggest leap here down the stretch and his playing his best football of the season.  

Leavitt has a 9-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last three games.  He is the reason the Sun Devils control their own destiny now in getting to the Big 12 Championship.  This team is playing with a massive chip on their shoulder after being picked to finish last by the media in the offseason.  That chip will remain squarely on their shoulder this week.

Arizona State wants to run Skattebo to set up the play-action for Leavitt.  They average 190.5 rushing yards per game.  BYU's weakness is stopping the run.  The Cougars allow 139.2 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry, which ranks 75th in the country.  BYU is balanced but leans on the pass more, and ASU is good in both departments.  They allow just 3.8 yards per rush attempt which ranks 47th and 6.3 yards per pass attempt which ranks 31st.

I think Arizona State has the better defense and their home-field advantage will be huge in this one as it should be one of the best atmospheres for a game in Tempe in years with what's at stake.  It's worth more than what is being factored into this line.  The Sun Devils should be more than 3-point home favorites here.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Total DOMINATOR on Rice/UAB OVER 51

I like taking OVERS between two teams late in the season that have nothing but pride to play for because they have already been eliminated from bowl contention.  These games tend to be played much more loose and free with the offenses having the advantage over the defense.  This applies to Rice (3-7) traveling to UAB (2-8) Saturday.

UAB is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Blazers play fast and they play no defense.  They rank 23rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 24.1 seconds.  They rank 127th in scoring defense allowing 36.8 points per game.  And UAB has played much better offensively since switching to Jalen Kitna at QB, averaging 444.3 total yards per game and 31.3 points per game in their last four games.  This total of 51 is very low for a game involving UAB right now.

The only reason this total is so low is because Rice has been an under team this season going 7-3 to the under.  But they haven't had QB EJ Warner healthy for part of the season, and he is healthy now and thriving.  Warner threw for 246 yards and 2 TD against Memphis and 239 yards and a TD against Navy in his last two games coming in.  He will have one of his best games of the season against UAB, similar to when he threw for 347 yards and 2 TD against UTSA, which is a team that profiles similar to UAB with no defense and up-tempo.

UAB and its opponents have combined for at least 54 points in eight consecutive games, making for an 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 51-point total.  The forecast looks great for a shootout this afternoon with temps in the 50's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss/Florida OVER 55

The Ole Miss Rebels had a bye last week to celebrate their win over Georgia, and now they can refocus.  They need style points to make the 12-team playoff and will be looking to run up the score against Florida.  They are expected to get arguably the best receiver in the country back in Tre Harris from injury this week.  Harris was leading the country in receiving before getting hurt.  He has 59 receptions for 987 yards and 6 TD in only seven games this season.

Ole Miss is elite offensively this season ranking 4th in scoring offense at 40.7 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 538.3 yards per game and 2nd at 7.6 yards per play.  They play at the 9th-fastest tempo in the country and don't let their opponents breath.  That was on display in their last road game when they suffocated Arkansas 63-31 for 94 combined points.  That's the same Arkansas defense that held Texas to 20 points and Tennessee to 14 at home.

This is where that tough schedule hurts Florida.  The Gators have had to play Georgia, Texas and LSU the last three weeks.  It's safe to say those were some very physical games and they have taken their toll as Florida is one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the country right now.  They are missing many of their top playmakers on defense.

After losing by 14 to Georgia, they lost by 32 at Texas.  But they got QB DJ Lagway back last week from injury and he led them to a 27-16 upset win over LSU.  But the key is that their defense was on the field for 42 minutes and 92 plays.  All four of their starters in the secondary played all 92 snaps, too, because they are so short-handed in the secondary right now.

This Ole Miss offense is not the unit you want to face when you are tired defensively.  The Rebels rank 9th in tempo snapping the ball every 23 seconds.  They will keep their foot on the gas for four quarters because they need style points, and I expect this Florida defense to break.

Lagway has one of the best deep balls in the country and he is averaging 18.8 yards per completion this season.  I think he will have enough success with some deep balls to get Florida on the board quickly a few times in this game.  It likely won't be enough to hang with Ole Miss, but it will be enough to help us cash this OVER 55 ticket.  The forecast looks great for a shootout as well with temps in the 60's and only 7 MPH winds without any threat of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Ole Miss -10

I normally wouldn't want to back a team like Ole Miss off an upset win over Georgia.  But the Rebels cannot afford a letdown if they want to make the 12-team playoff.  They have no margin for error and cannot afford a loss.  In fact, they would do themselves some by running up the score in their final two games to assure they make it.

The Rebels had a bye last week to celebrate their win over Georgia, and now they can refocus.  They are expected to get arguably the best receiver in the country back in Tre Harris from injury this week.  Harris was leading the country in receiving before getting hurt.  He has 59 receptions for 987 yards and 6 TD in only seven games this season.

Ole Miss has the numbers of the best team in the country, which shouldn't make it all that surprising they beat Georgia 28-10.  Their 'A' game is as good as any in the country.  They lead the nation in yards per play differential, averaging 7.6 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.4 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 3.2 yards per play.  So basically every time the ball is snapped they gain 3.2 yards of field position.  That is as elite as it gets.

I have backed Florida several times this season and I like this team more than most who left them for dead early in the season.  The Gators continue to fight for Billy Napier and I think the program made the right move in extending him.  He was dealt a tough hand with the toughest schedule in the country and has made the most of it, getting Florida over their 4.5-win total at 5-5 this season.  They want to get to a bowl, but they have Florida State on deck next week to accomplish that goal.  It's not going to happen this week.

This is where that tough schedule hurts Florida.  The Gators have had to play Georgia, Texas and LSU the last three weeks.  It's safe to say those were some very physical games and they have taken their toll as Florida is one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the country right now.  They are missing many of their top playmakers on offense and defense.

After losing by 14 to Georgia, they lost by 32 at Texas.  But they got QB DJ Lagway back last week from injury and he led them to a 27-16 upset win over LSU.  That was a bit of a misleading final with LSU outgaining Florida by 53 yards.  But the key is that their defense was on the field for 42 minutes and 92 plays.  All four of their starters in the secondary played all 92 snaps, too, because they are so short-handed in the secondary right now.

This Ole Miss offense is not the unit you want to face when you are tired defensively.  The Rebels rank 9th in tempo snapping the ball every 23 seconds.  They will keep their foot on the gas for four quarters because they need style points, and I expect this Florida defense to break.  I don't think Lagway and company can keep up in a shootout either because the Rebels are going to get their points.  

Lane Kiffin is 15-2 SU & 12-4-1 ATS since 2019 as a road favorite.  He is 8-1 ATS in his last nine games as a road favorite of -4 or higher with the only non-cover coming as 10.5-point favorites in a 10-point win at Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl.  Double-digit dogs off a conference win like Florida are on a 48-87 ATS run.  Florida has lost 14 consecutive games SU as a double-digit dog dating back to 2016.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Maryland +6.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes had some life offensively when Brandon Sullivan took over at QB.  He was a dual-threat and added a dimension the Hawkeyes didn't have before, and it worked in blowout wins over Wisconsin and Northwestern.

But Sullivan got hurt in their 20-17 loss to UCLA.  Former starter Cade McNamara is done at Iowa, and now it's up to third-string QB Jackson Stratton.  He took over late for Sullivan in the loss to UCLA and went 3-of-6 for 28 yards.  This will be the first start of his career on the road in the Big Ten, and I don't expect it to go well for him.

Maryland will be motivated sitting at 4-6 on the season and two wins away from bowl eligibility.  They host Nebraska next week, so these next two games are very winnable.  They are in this position because they lost 31-17 to Rutgers last week.  But that misleading final is the reason we are getting more points with the Terrapins than we should be today.

Maryland goes from being a 4-point home favorite over Rutgers to a 6.5-point underdog to Iowa.  That's a 10.5-point adjustment.  I power rate Rutgers and Iowa very similarly.  Maryland outgained Rutgers 457 to 360 for the game, or by nearly 100 yards, which is why I say it was a misleading final.

I like the matchup for the Terrapins, too.  Iowa needs to run the football to be effective because they have the 127th-ranking passing attack in the country, and it's going to be even worse with Stratton.  The Terrapins rank 29th in allowing just 115.4 rushing yards per game and 30th at 3.6 per carry.  They are great along the front seven and weak in the secondary, which is something Iowa will not be able to exploit.

Heavy passing teams have had success throwing the ball against Iowa.  UCLA, Michigan State, Ohio State and Iowa State all had a lot of success throwing the ball on Iowa's defense.  The Terrapins are getting great production from their pasisng game this season.  QB Billy Edwards is completing 65% of his passes for 2,855 yards with a 15-to-9 TD/INT ratio.  He gets to throw to two of the most underrated receivers in the country in Felton and Prather, who have combined for 138 receptions, 1,629 yards and 10 TD this season.  Bet Maryland Saturday.

20* Indiana/Ohio State FOX No-Brainer on Indiana +13.5

What more does Indiana have to do to get some respect? The Hoosiers are 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS this season with nine of their 10 wins coming by 14 points or more.  They led Michigan 17-3 at halftime and it turned into a 5-point game as they took their foot off the gas in the 2H going into their bye week and looking ahead to this game against Ohio State, which is understandable.

I think that effort is the only reason the Hoosiers are double-digit dogs here to Ohio State.  I think the Hoosiers can get back to playing with a chip on their shoulder because nobody is giving them a chance Saturday, talking about their strength of schedule.  Head coach Curt Cignetti is saying all the right things and even stated that they have been in control in every game this season, which is true.

Indiana has no weaknesses.  The Hoosiers rank 2nd in scoring offense at 43.9 points per game and 7th in scoring defense at 13.8 points per game.  They rank 9th averaging 6.9 yards per play on offense and 2nd allowing 4.2 yards per play on defense.  Their 2.7 net yards per play differential is one of the best marks in the country.

Ohio State needed a late comeback to beat Nebraska 21-17 at home as 25-point favorites.  That's the same Nebraska team Indiana blasted 56-7 as 6.5-point home favorites.  No question the Buckeyes are one of the best teams in the country, but they have some problems along the offensive line that I think Indiana can exploit.

Ohio State just lost starting C Seth McClaughlin to a season-ending Achilles injury in practice this week.  Injuries at the center position are worth more than what is being factored into the line.  He makes all the calls up front, and the Buckeyes don't have much time to prepare to play without him.  They were already without starting LT Josh Simmons, so they are now missing two starters up front.

The Buckeyes need to be able to run the ball to be effective because Will Howard is shaky at times in the passing game.  I don't see them having much success on the ground with these O-Line injuries, plus the fact that Indiana ranks 1st in the country allowing just 72.2 rushing yards per game and 2nd at 2.5 yards per rush.  The Hoosiers are also off a bye week so they have had two weeks to rest and prepare for the Buckeyes, a fact that also isn't being factored into the line enough.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* Purdue/Michigan State FOX No-Brainer on Michigan State -13.5

I love the spot for the Michigan State Spartans Friday night.  They sit at 4-6 on the season and highly motivated for a win to get within one win of bowl eligibility with another winnable home game against Rutgers on deck next week.  It will be a great atmosphere Friday night as fans are excited about head coach Jonathan Smith and the direction of this team.

Michigan State is coming off a misleading 38-16 road loss at Illinois last week, which is why this line is below 14 and providing us value.  Illinois only outgained Michigan State by 26 yards.  It was a 6-point game entering the 4th quarter.

After going through a gauntlet of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Iowa, Oregon and Ohio State in their last six games coming in, the Spartans will be looking forward to a big step down in class against the worst team in the Big Ten in Purdue.  They will take out their frustration and win this game going away.

Purdue is 0-9 SU & 1-8 ATS in its last nine games overall.  Seven of those nine losses came by 17 points or more, and you can chalk up another blowout loss for the Boilermakers tonight.  After losing in OT to Northwestern coming out of their bye at home, they have simply quit the last two weeks losing 45-0 to Ohio State and 49-10 to Penn State.  I don't think they'll have much left in the tank on this short week, and they are just ready for the season to be over at this point.

Michigan State had a bye prior to Illinois and should still be fresh, which is an advantage on this short week.  The Spartans are 8-1 SU in their last nine meetings with the Boilermakers, and they haven't gotten to face a Purdue team that has been this bad during this stretch.  They'll take advantage of this opportunity and win going away tonight.  Bet Michigan State Friday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Buffalo/Eastern Michigan OVER 53

Both Buffalo and Eastern Michigan like to play fast, no-huddle offenses which is going to give us extra possessions in this game and more opportunities for points.  Buffalo ranks 21st in tempo snapping the ball every 24 seconds while Eastern Michigan ranks 27th snapping it ever 24.2 seconds.  These are two of the worst defenses int the MAC to boot.

Many bettors took the under in this game due to weather concerns, but I don't think it looks that bad.  Temps will be in the 40's with 15 MPH winds and there shouldn't be much precipitation by the time the game starts.  I think both offenses will have a lot more success than most are thinking due to the weather.

Buffalo is a dead nuts OVER team especially of late.  The Bulls have gone 6-0 OVER in their last six games overall with 99, 71, 63 and 89 combined points in there last four games.  This 53-point total is very low for a game involving the Bulls with the way they are trending right now.

Eastern Michigan is 4-2 OVER in its last six games overall with 52 or more combined points in four of those six games.  If this game is played more on the ground, neither team can stop the run.  Buffalo ranks 77th allowing 4.3 per carry while Eastern Michigan is even worse ranking 95th allowing 4.6 yards per carry.  Both teams are pretty balanced offensively.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 54 or more combined points in five of those six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* San Diego State/UNLV MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 54

The OVER is 4-2 since UNLV QB Hajj-Malik Williams took over six games ago.  It was a blessing in disguise that their starting QB decided to opt out and hit the portal.  Their offense has taken off ever since.  Williams is completing 64% of his passes for 1,192 yards and a 13-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 617 yards and 6 TD on 6.2 per carry.  He has been absolutely dynamic both as a passer and a runner.

The Rebels have averaged 39.3 points per game in their last six games with Williams running the show.  That includes 41.3 points per game in their three home games against Boise State, Syracuse and Fresno State.  With the Rebels still feeling like they have a chance to make the 12-team playoff, their feel like they need style points and won't be afraid to run it up.  I think they can top 40 points on San Diego State in this one.

The Aztecs rank 88th in scoring defense at 26.9 points per game and 102nd in total defense at 405.4 yards per game.  They played a pretty easy schedule of opposing offenses all season until recently, when they allowed 56 points and 541 total yards at Boise State two games ago.

San Diego State ranks 16th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.5 seconds.  UNLV ranks 60th in tempo.  This game will see a lot of possessions which means more chances for points.  And I think this total is being set too low tonight due to San Diego State's performance in their last game.

San Diego State lost 21-16 at home to New Mexico last game with a total of 65 set for that game.  New Mexico had 475 total yards and should have scored more.  But both teams kept bogging down in the red zone and San Diego State kicked FG's of 22, 28 and 31 yards.  It was also some of the worst field conditions I've seen in all of college football this season.  Players were slipping everywhere, and it's a reminder not to play overs in SDSU home games moving forward.

This game will be played on a fast track in the dome inside Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.  The last five UNLV games played inside Allegiant Stadium have averaged 76.4 combined points.  UNLV is capable of covering this total on their own, but I expect San Diego State to get in the 20's to help.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Kansas/BYU ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Kansas +3

Kansas is one of the best 3-6 teams in the history of college football.  BYU is one of the worst 9-0 teams in the history of college football.  There's a reason this line is only 3 with those records, and I fully expect the Jayhawks to win this game outright.

Kansas is 0-5 in games decided by 6 points or less this season.  The other was a misleading 11-point loss to TCU.  The Jayhawks have had two bye weeks in the last month and are fresh and showing what they are capable of now.

Kansas is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games with the lone loss coming 29-27 as 9.5-point underdogs at Kansas State in a game they deserved to win.  They returned from their first bye with a 42-14 dismantling of Houston as 5-point home favorites.  They came back from their 2nd bye and upset Iowa State 45-36 as 2-point underdogs at Arrowhead Stadium.

This Kansas offense has taken off behind QB Jaylon Daniels and RB Devin Neal.  They put up 42 points and 467 total yards on a very good Houston defense.  They put up 27 points and 401 total yards on a very good Kansas State defense.  And most impressive yet was last week when they put up 45 points and 532 total yards against arguably the best defense in the Big 12 in Iowa State.

BYU has a worse defense than all three of those teams, so I fully expect the Jayhawks to hang a big number on them.  And while the Jayhawks have been very unlucky in close games, the Cougars are winning all of theirs.  BYU is 4-0 in games decided by 6 points or less this season.

The Cougars are coming off a massive 22-21 win at the buzzer at Utah in the Holy War last week.  They got bailed out by the refs on their final drive on a 4th-and-10 sack that turned into a phantom holding penalty on Utah.  BYU took advantage and drove the length of the field, setting up the game-winning 44-yard field goal.

Now BYU has a 2-game lead over 3rd place in the Big 12, which means they can afford a loss and still make the Big 12 Championship Game.  I think having that in the back of their minds and feeling 'fat and happy' off a win over their big brothers last week sets them up for a prime letdown spot this week.  Couple that with all the pressure of trying to make the 12-team playoff and there is a lot this team is dealing with emotionally.

Kansas is in a great state of mind knowing it needs to run the table to make a bowl game.  The Jayhawks are 'all in' and out to prove they are much better than their record would indicate.  They started last week by upsetting Iowa State, and now they are licking their chops at the opportunity to knock BYU from the unbeaten ranks.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* Oregon/Wisconsin NBC ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin +14

The Wisconsin Badgers have a huge rest advantage over Oregon that I don't think is being factored into this line enough.  That's one of the main reasons why I'm willing to back the Badgers catching two touchdowns at home in what will be a great, hostile atmosphere with the No. 1 team in the country coming to Madison for a 7:30 EST kick.

Wisconsin had a bye last week to regroup.  The Badgers had played six consecutive weeks and needed the bye.  In their 5th game they gave Penn State all they could handle at home in a 14-13 game in the 4th quarter that included a 19-yard INT return by Penn State in a game the Badgers should have been leading.  It snowballed from there as Penn State outscored them 14-0 in the 4th in a 28-13 final.

I think the Badgers let that loss beat them twice the next week when they went into Iowa City and lost 42-10 in a night game at Kinnick Stadium.  But that result is providing us extra line value on Wisconsin this week.  The Badgers have had two weeks to get healthy and focused on stopping Oregon.  I think we see one of their best efforts of the season Saturday night, and it will be good enough to stay within this inflated number.

With the No. 1 ranked in the country comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are hard to live up to.  I took Maryland +25 as my 25* Big Ten Game of the Year at Oregon last week largely due to that reason.  Like Wisconsin, Maryland was coming off a bye and gave an 'all in' effort.  This was an 11-point game in the 4th quarter before Oregon tacked on a FG and a TD after a Maryland turnover in the final six minutes to turn it into a 39-18 misleading final.  Oregon only outgained Maryland by 74 yards.

I also faded Oregon last week because they were a tired team playing for a 7th consecutive week and coming off a hard-fought win at Michigan.  Now they will be playing for an 8th consecutive week!.  There has been a ton of travel involved especially of late as they have alternated home/road games.  They played Ohio State at home, then Purdue on the road, Illinois at home, then Michigan on the road, Maryland at home and now they have to fly back to the midwest to face Wisconsin.

Because of this tough travel schedule, the Ducks may be the single-most tired team in the country.  They also can afford a loss and still make the Big Ten Championship Game, so they aren't exactly 'all in' right now.  They would be able to beat Washington at home and still make the title game in their regular season finale, so knowing they have that to fall back on might not have them quite as motivated for this game.  I love the situation favoring the Badgers this week.  

Oregon also has two key playmakers on offense questionable to play in this game.  RB Jordan James (946 yards, 10 TD, 5.7/carry) only got one carry in the 2H against Maryland, and WR Tez Johnson (64 receptions, 649 yards, 8 TD) is nursing a shoulder injury.  He missed the Maryland game and may not be back in time for this one.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on San Jose State +14

San Jose State is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  Ken Niomatalolo is doing great things here for the Spartans in his first season on the job.  The Spartans are 6-3 SU & 5-4 ATS this season with their losses coming by 2 to Washington State, which is 8-1 this season and by 7 to Colorado State, which is expected to make the Mountain West Championship.

They also had a misleading 33-10 loss to Fresno State two games ago that has them undervalued still.  They were only outgained by 16 yards by Fresno State.  They had a bye week after that loss, and they responded with a 24-13 win at Oregon State as 3-point underdogs last week.  Now they have their sights set on upsetting Boise State at home this week.

This San Jose State offense is legit.  They average 6.5 yards per play which ranks 27th in the country.  Their passing offense ranks 5th at 332.3 yards per game, and Boise State can be thrown on.  They have one of the best receivers in the country in Nick Nash, who has 86 receptions for 1,156 yards and 13 TD.

Boise State is starting to feel the pressure of trying to make the 12-team playoff.  The Broncos were fortunate to escape with a 28-21 home win over Nevada as 22.5-point favorites last week.  San Jose State is better than Nevada, so getting 14 points with them at home here is a nice value.

I like the matchup for the Spartans.  To be able to compete with Boise State you have to be able to stop Ashton Jeanty and their rushing attack.  Well, San Jose State ranks 36th in the country allowing just 3.7 yards per carry.

San Jose State is a pass-heavy offense and the weakness of Boise State is their pass defense.  The Broncos rank 110th in the country allowing 247.1 passing yards per game and 104th allowing 7.8 yards per attempt.  The Spartans will never be out of this game with their ability to move the football through the air.  

The Broncos haven't been that impressive on the road this season.  They were in dog fights with UNLV and Georgia Southern and their lone road win by more than 11 points came by 21 at Hawaii, which was a 6-point game in the 4th quarter and a misleading final.  The Spartans are live underdogs this week.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on South Alabama/Louisiana OVER 58

Louisiana is quietly sitting at 8-1 this season with their lone loss to Tulane by 8.  The Rajin' Cajuns still feel like they are alive for the 12-team playoff, and they think they need style points from here on out.  They will look to run up the score if they can, which is a big reason why I am backing the OVER 58 in this game Saturday night against South Alabama.

Louisiana is riding an offense that ranks 25th in the country in scoring at 35.2 points per game, 12th in total offense at 457.1 yards per game and 5th at 7.0 yards per play.  They ran it up last week on Arkansas State in a 55-19 blowout that saw 74 combined points.  They have gone for at least 58 combined points in five of their last seven games now.

The Rajin' Cajuns should be able to name their number against a South Alabama defense that ranks 97th in total defense at 394.4 yards per game and 95th at 6.0 yards per play allowed.  The Jaguars are coming off a pair of shootouts in a 34-30 loss to Georgia Southern and 64 combined points and a 46-17 win over ULM and 63 combined points.

This South Alabama offense has been humming when QB Gio Lopez has been healthy.  Lopez is one of the better dual-threat QB's in the country.  He is completing 65.4% of his passes for 1,891 yards with a 14-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 393 yards and 4 scores with 6.3 per carry.  He leads a South Alabama offene that ranks 21st in scoring at 35.6 points per game, 11th in total offense at 456.9 yards per game and 14th at 6.8 yards per play.

The forecast looks perfect for a shootout Saturday night with temps in the 70's, no wind and no precipitation.  I can see these teams trading scores with this being one of the most entertaining games of the weekend featuring two of the best offenses in the country that not too many people know about.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri/South Carolina UNDER 44.5

Missouri's offense has hit the skids without QB Brady Cook.  They have one of the worst backup QB situations in the country with Notre Dame transfer Drew Pyne now starting in his place.  Let's just look at how poor this Missouri offense has been the last three weeks since Cook got injury against Auburn.

Missouri needed a 17-6 comeback in the 4th quarter to beat Auburn 21-17 for 38 combined points.  The Tigers were then shut out 34-0 at Alabama for 34 combined points.  And last week they managed to beat Oklahoma 30-23 in a game that was sitting at 10-9 entering the 4th quarter before all hell broke loose.

Oklahoma got a defensive TD with 2:00 left, Missouri scored a TD with 1:03 left, and Missouri scored the game-winning defensive TD on a 17-yard fumble recovery with 30 seconds left.  That misleading final is adding to the line value this week to back the UNDER.  Missouri only had 278 total yard and Oklahoma only had 257 total yards in that game.

Now Pyne and this hobbled Missouri offense must face a South Carolina defense playing about as well as any defense in the country this season.  The Gamecocks rank 12th in scoring defense at 17.6 points per game, 13th in total defense at 299.9 yards per game and 7th at 4.5 yards per play.  They stymied Diego Pavia which nobody else has been able to do this season.  They won that game 28-7 over Vanderbilt for 35 combined points.

South Carolina's offense leaves a lot to be desired, and Missouri can rely on its defense to at least be competitive for a while.  The Tigers rank 15th in scoring defense at 18.4 points per game and 11th in total defense at 294.9 yards per game.  I expect Missouri to try and slow this game to a crawl by snapping the ball as late as they can in the play clock because shortening the game is about the only chance they have to win it with Pyne at QB.  Pyne is averaging just 4.8 yards per attempt on his 82 pass attempts this season.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings as these teams always seem to play in low-scoring games.  Given Missouri's circumstances offensively right now, I think that trend continues in this one.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Baylor -2.5

The Baylor buy signs are high right now.  I've been riding this team in their last few games and will continue to ride them this week. The Bears are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  Their offense is unstoppable right now averaging 44.7 points per game and 564 yards per game in their three consecutive wins and covers.

Now Baylor is off a bye week and will come back with another big effort against West Virginia this week.  And while I'm high on Baylor right now, I'm equally low on West Virginia. I think this is a great time to 'sell high' on the Mountaineers.  

They are coming off two consecutive upset wins over Arizona and Cincinnati, which are two of the worst teams in the Big 12 in my opinion.  They beat Arizona by 5, which isn't impressive when you consider Arizona has lost five consecutive games now and is decimated by injuries.  The Wildcats' other three losses in their last four games came by 22 points or more.

West Virginia beat Cincinnati 31-24 on the road last week, but that was one of the most misleading final scores of the season.  West Virginia had two defensive touchdowns and their offense only scored 17 points with 248 total yards.  Their defense gave up 436 yards to Cincinnati, getting outgained by nearly 200 yards.

Injuries are piling up for the Mountaineers with QB Garrett Greene questionable with a concussion, and their 2nd-leading receiver likely to miss this game with a hamstring injury. Even if they had both guys healthy I'd still like Baylor in this spot, so getting -2.5 is a discount.  If Greene is ruled out this line will balloon in Baylor's favor.

The Bears will be revenge-minded too after losing by exactly 3 points to West Virginia in each of their last two meetings.  The Bears are the better, healthier team this season and they are rested and ready to go off a bye.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

20* Louisville/Stanford ACC No-Brainer on OVER 57.5

Louisville is a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 6-3 OVER in all games this season with 50 or more combined points in all nine games, including 58 or more combined points five times.  They have scored at least 24 points in every game this season despite the brutal schedule and rank 21st in scoring offense at 36.2 points per game, 18th in total offense at 449.6 yards per game and 9th at 6.9 yards per play.

The Cardinals will be able to name their number against a Stanford defense that ranks 122nd in scoring at 34.6 points per game, 110th at 412.9 yards per game and 122nd at 6.5 yards per play.  With Louisville ranked 19th in the playoff rankings this week, they still feel like they have a chance to make it.  They will feel like they need style points and won't take their foot off the gas.  It also makes me lean to Louisville -20.5, but I think the OVER is a better way to play it.

Stanford is coming off a 59-28 shootout loss at NC State.  They allowed 547 total yards to the Wolfpack.  They have now allowed at least 31 points in six of their nine games this season.  They gave up 40 to SMU, 49 to Notre Dame and 40 to Clemson.  I think Louisville tops 40 points in this one.

Now it's a question of whether or not Stanford can keep up, and I think they can.  They can at least get 20-plus in this one.  Louisville's defense has allowed at least 19 points in seven consecutive games now.  It's a very mediocre defense by Jeff Brahm standards.  And both teams rank in the top half of the country in tempo.

Stanford's offense has been much better with QB Ashton Daniels healthy, which he is right now.  He is completing 62.8% of his passes this season and is a dual-threat, rushing for 481 yards and a pair of scores while averaging 5.5 per carry.  Mobile QB's have posed a problem for Louisville's defense this season with five different quarterbacks rushing for at least 50 yards, and two topping 100 yards on the ground.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Hawaii/Utah State OVER 60

Utah State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Aggies rank 2nd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.4 seconds and they have the worst defense in all of college football.  That combination has led them to going 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 59 or more combined points in six of those seven games, and 74 or more in five of them.  The two opponents they faced that didn't see 74 combined points were Wyoming and Utah, who have atrocious offenses.

Utah State ranks 133rd in scoring defense at 42.3 points per game, 132nd in total defense at 496.2 yards per game and 130th at 6.8 yards per play.  Hawaii has played a tough schedule of opposing defenses and will be happy to get a reprieve here.  The Warriors should have their best offensive performance of the season Saturday.

Hawaii went toe-to-toe with a very good UNLV offense last week in windy conditions at home and lost 29-27.  They have a gutsy QB in Brayden Schager, who is quietly having one of the best seasons of any MWC quarterback.  He has thrown for 2,467 yards with a 19-to-10 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 268 yards and 6 scores on the ground.  He is in line for his best game of the season against Utah State.

Hawaii also likes to play pretty fast ranking 45th in tempo at 25.2 seconds between snaps.  This total of 60 is actually pretty low for a game involving Utah State when you consider the Aggies have played four of their last five games with totals of 67 or higher.  The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 75, 82 and 73 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* ACC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Syracuse/California OVER 56

Syracuse is a dead nuts OVER team led by an offense that ranks 39th in scoring at 31.7 points per game and 25th in total offense at 442.8 yards per game.  The Orange rank 4th the country in passing at 353.8 yards per game and they are the most pass-heavy offense in the country ranking 1st at 48.3 attempts per game.  I like pass-heavy offenses for OVERS because incompletions stop the clock.

This Syracuse defense has taken a turn for the worse in recent weeks.  The Orange allowed 41 points to UNLV, 41 to Pittsburgh, 31 to a Virginia Tech team playing with a backup QB, and 37 to a Boston College team that played with two QB's in four of their last five games.  They have been forced to try and keep up in shootouts in all of those games because their defense has been so poor.

It won't get any easier this week against a Cal offense that has found its stride.  The Golden Bears hung 44 points and 478 total yards on Oregon State two games ago and then 46 points and 500 total yards on Wake Forest last week.  That was an absolute shootout as they gave up 36 points to the Demon Deacons for 82 combined points.  Keep in mind they were in a 39-38 shootout with Miami earlier this season for 77 combined points as well.

Both teams play faster than average as California ranks 43rd in tempo while Syracuse ranks 48th, so there will be more possessions than average in this game.  The forecast looks perfect for a shootout with temps in the 50's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* C-USA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on FIU/Jacksonville State OVER 58.5

Jacksonville State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Gamecocks rank 7th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 22.8 seconds in Rich Rodriquez's up-tempo read-option scheme.  The OVER is 6-3 in all Jacksonville State games this season with 62 or more combined points in six of them.

This Jacksonville State offense is humming right now.  The Gamecocks rank 8th in the country in scoring offense at 39.2 points per game.  They have scored at least 42 points in five of their last six games overall.  This Jacksonville State defense leaves a lot to be desired, ranking 100th in scoring defense at 29.2 points per game and 102nd in total defense at 407.7 yards per game.

Jacksonville State played in a 44-37 (OT) shootout with LA Tech last week that saw 74 combined points at the end of regulation.  That's a very bad LA Tech offense they just allowed 37 points and 410 total yards to last week.  I think Florida International can find similar success against this Gamecocks defense.

I was impressed with this FIU offense in putting up 34 points against New Mexico State two weeks ago.  They also put up 438 total yards and have had a bye to put in some new wrinkles on offense.  QB Keyonte Jenkins threw for 338 yards and 4 TD in the win, and he has an absolute stud outside in Eric Rivers, who caught 11 balls for 295 yards and three scores in the win.  He now has 43 receptions for 876 yards and 8 TD on the season.  Jenkins is completing 61.5% of his passes with a 14-to-7 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.0 per attempt.

Florida International has faced a very weak schedule of opposing offenses this season and hasn't faced an offense as good as Jacksonville State since giving up 31 to Indiana in the season opener.  They also gave up 38 to FIU, 45 to Monmouth, 31 to Liberty and 30 to UTEP.  I expect Jacksonville State to get into the 40's and FIU to get at least 28 in this one.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 60's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Houston/Arizona FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston +1.5

First-year head coach Willie Fritz has the Houston Cougars playing their best football of the season right now.  They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with three outright upsets over TCU 30-19 as 16-point road dogs, Utah 17-14 as 5-point home dogs and Kansas State 24-19 as 13-point home dogs.

The Cougars got a much-needed bye last week.  First-year head coaches benefit the most from bye weeks, and Fritz will have his team ready to pursue a bowl game coming out of the bye.  The Cougars sit at 4-5 on the season needing two more wins to get bowl eligible, so they will be looking at this line a must-win.

Houston has one of the best defenses in the country.  They rank 43rd in scoring defense at 22.0 points per game and 25th in total defense at 318.9 yards per game despite playing the 10th-toughest schedule in the country to this point.  They are also 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in games started and finished by QB Zeon Chriss as he led the upsets of TCU, Utah and K-State.  Chriss gives them a dual-threat rushing for 294 yards and 2 TD.  He is also completing 69.1% of his passes with a 4-to-3 TD/INT ratio.

While the Cougars are on the rise under Fritz, the Arizona Wildcats are falling flat on their faces under first-year head coach Brent Brennan.  QB Noah Fifita is struggling mightily in the new system.  He has a 13-to-10 TD/INT ratio and fumble problems as well.  He is playing in front of a banged-up offensive line to boot.

But the biggest problem for the Wildcats is defense, where they have been without eight of 11 starters at different points of the season and most are season-ending injuries.  Arizona ranks 108th in scoring defense at 31.1 points per game, 94th in total defense at 393 yards per game and 98th at 6.0 yards per play allowed.

Arizona is 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.  It started with a 28-22 home loss to Texas Tech as 5.5-point favorites.  The Wildcats followed it up with a 41-19 loss at BYU as 2.5-point dogs.  They were then blasted 34-7 as 2.5-point home favorites to Colorado.  They lost 31-26 as 5.5-point home favorites against a West Virginia team playing a backup QB two games ago.

But perhaps the most alarming result was the 56-12 loss at UCF as 6-point dogs last time out.  They were playing a UCF team starting a 3rd-string QB and still allowed 56 points and 602 total yards.  That effort just goes to show how rough a shape this defense is in right now.  UCF rushed for 308 yards and passes for 294 more.  

Houston wants to run the football and will be able to do so against this Arizona defense.  This will be one of the softest defenses the Cougars have gotten to face all season, and they were in line for one of their best offensive outputs of the year as a result.  I trust the Cougars to get the necessary stops as this Houston defense will be the best Arizona has seen since being held to a combined 30 points in two games against K-State and Utah.  Bet Houston Friday.

15* UCLA/Washington FOX ANNIHILATOR on UCLA +3.5

For starters, UCLA has played the single-toughest schedule in the entire country up to this point.  The Bruins have been through the gauntlet, which is why it was so important that they got a bye three weeks ago to recover.

UCLA has already had to face the likes of Indiana, Oregon, Minnesota and Iowa at home as well as LSU, Penn State, Rutgers and Nebraska on the road.  The Bruins have shown great improvement each week going 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.  They only lost by 17 at LSU as 21-dogs, by 21 at home to Oregon as 23.5-point dogs, by 16 at Penn State as 29.5-point dogs, by 4 to Minnesota at home as 3.5-point closing dogs, and won outright at Rutgers 35-32 as 4-point dogs going into their bye.

The Bruins came out of their bye refreshed two weeks ago and it showed, upsetting Nebraska 27-20 as 7.5-point road underdogs.  There was nothing fluky about that result as the Bruins outgained the Huskes 6.5 to 4.5 yards per play in the game.  Then last week they upset Iowa 20-17 as 6.5-point dogs.  This was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Bruins outgained the Hawkeyes 414 to 265, or by 149 total yards.  But they threw two INT inside the Iowa 5-yard line to keep them in it.

Keep in mind that's the same Iowa team that Washington lost 40-16 to on the road.  That was the start of the downward spiral for the Huskies, who are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games.  They also lost 31-17 at Indiana and their backup QB, and lost 35-6 at Penn State as 13-point dogs.  Even their lone win during this stretch was fluky beating USC 26-21 at home despite getting outgained 459 to 375 by the Trojans.

UCLA played last Friday and had a bye three weeks ago and has the rest advantage here because of it.  Washington has to travel all the way back home from Penn State on the East Coast after getting blasted 35-6 by the Nittany Lions on Saturday.  This was every bit the blowout that the final score showed as Penn State outgained Washington 486 to 193, or by nearly 300 total yards.  Keep in mind UCLA only lost 27-11 at Penn State while only getting outgained 322 to 260, or by 62 total yards.

Washington didn't get home until 5 AM Sunday morning.  The Huskies will still be fatigued and won't have much time to prepare for UCLA on this short week.  The Bruins sit at 4-5 and motivated to get to a bowl game, so they won't have a letdown here.  I think UCLA is the better team at this point, so getting 3.5 points with them even factoring in home-field advantage for Washington is too much.  This line should be closer to PK or the Bruins favored.  Bet UCLA Friday.

20* Wyoming/Colorado State MWC No-Brainer on Wyoming +10

It's time to 'buy low' on the Wyoming Cowboys.  They are just 2-7 SU this season, but they have a first-year head coach and will keep fighting.  They proved that last time out in a 49-45 win at 9-point road underdogs at New Mexico.  They have since had a bye week and bye weeks are most beneficial for first-year head coaches.

QB Kaden Anderson made his first career start at QB against New Mexico, and star RB Harrison Waylee saw his first action of the season in that win over New Mexico.  Anderson finished 20-of-29 passing for 342 yards and three touchdowns, while Waylee gained 170 rushing yards on 27 carries.  Jaylen Sargent had 186 receiving yards and a score.

Having Anderson at QB and Waylee back at RB isn't being factored into this line enough.  The Cowboys are a completely different team right now than they were up to this point.  They have also quietly gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games with their three SU losses coming by 10, 2 and 3 points during this stretch, and the betting public still wants nothing to do with this team due to their poor SU record.

We'll 'sell high' on the Colorado State Rams.  The Rams have gone 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall and are starting to get a lot of respect here as a double-digit favorite.  They have several misleading finals here recently that are providing us with some line value to bet against them.

Two games ago they beat New Mexico 17-6 despite allowing 453 total yards to the Lobos and getting outgained by 119 yards.  That was a minor miracle.  Last time out they beat Nevada 38-21 despite allowing 441 total yards and getting outgained by 114 yards.  They are getting away with murder with these wins and these box scores, and I think it comes to an end this week.

Colorado State will feel the pressure of knowing that if they win out they are in the MWC Championship Game.  They also had a bye last week, which I don't think is good for the Rams, who had a ton of momentum and didn't need a bye.  I don't think it will have been a productive bye week for them as they are feeling 'fat and happy' for two weeks.

Colorado State is averaging 365.1 yards per game on offense and allowing 408.2 yards per game on defense, getting outgained by 43.1 yards per game.  This just isn't a very good Rams team, and the Cowboys are live underdogs tonight.  The Cowboys are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet Wyoming Friday.

25* AAC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on ECU/Tulsa O 61

This East Carolina offense has taken off in recent weeks to match the fast pace they play with.  The Pirates rank 5th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.8 seconds.  The OVER is 4-0 in ECU's last four games overall with 79, 73, 90 and 63 combined points.  

The switch to Kevin Houser at QB has made a big difference.  After throwing for 269 yards and 5 TD against Temple two games ago, he came back 343 yards and 5 TD against Florida Atlantic last week.  They have scored a total of 105 points in those two games and an average of 52.5 points per game.  But this is a poor ECU defense that has allowed 37 points per game and 440.8 yards per game in their last four games.

East Carolina will be able to name its number against this soft Tulsa defense.  The Golden Hurricane rank 130th in scoring defense at 38.4 points per game, 125th in total defense at 449.4 yards per game and 126th at 6.7 yards per play.

The OVER is 4-1 in Tulsa's last five games overall with 72 or more combined points three times.  It's largely due to the defense, which is allowing 45.0 points per game during this stretch.  They allowed 52 to North Texas, 49 to Army, 45 to UTSA and 59 to UAB.

Utah State transfer Cooper Legas has injected some life into this Tulsa offense as well.  He led the Golden Hurricane to a 46-45 comeback win over UTSA two games ago with 333 passing yards and 5 TD as well as 46 rushing yards on 13 attempts.  Legas went for 230 passing yards and 2 TD in their 59-21 loss to UAB last time out.  They had 423 total yards in that game and probably should have scored more.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 69, 73, 64 and 56 combined points.  With the way these teams are built this season, I expect them to easily combine to top 61 points Thursday night.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* EMU/Ohio MAC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 49.5

This has been a crazy week of good weather for these MAC weekday games, which is rare for mid-November.  Temps will be in the 50's with no wind and no chance of precipitation for this start of this game between Eastern Michigan and Ohio Wednesday night.  This looks like a shootout relative to this 49.5-point total, and at the very least the total should be set in the 50's.

Eastern Michigan has gone up-tempo this season ranking 23rd in the country in seconds between snaps.  That move has propelled the Eagles to have one of the most improved offenses in the country.  The Eagles are scoring 29.2 points per game and averaging 392.1 yards per game with a balanced attack that averages 246 passing yards per game and 146 rushing.

Ohio is scoring 26.2 points per game and averaging 383.2 yards per game.  The Bobcats average 6.0 yards per play, which is one of the best numbers in the MAC.  This Ohio offense is humming right now putting up 47 points against Buffalo and 41 against Kent State in their last two games coming in.  QB Parker Navarro is a dual-threat with 556 rushing yards and 6.2 per carry, and Northwestern transfer RB Anthony Tyus is a playmaker with 694 rushing yards in basically just seven games.

The Bobcats should be able to name their number against a soft Eastern Michigan defense that ranks 115th in the country in allowing 6.3 yards per play.  The Eagles are allowing 31.8 points per game in conference play despite getting to face Akron, CMU and Kent State.  The OVER is 4-1 in EMU's last five games overall with 52 or more combined points in four of the five.  The OVER is 3-1 in Ohio's last four games with 50 or more combined points in three of the four.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* WMU/Bowling Green MAC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 58.5

Western Michigan is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Broncos are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall with 56 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  It will be more of the same tonight as they travel to face Bowling Green.

Western Michigan has one of the best offenses in the MAC ranking 30th in the country in scoring offense at 33.3 points per game and 23rd at 6.5 yards per play.  But the Broncos also have one of the worst defenses in the country, ranking 123rd in scoring defense at 34.7 points per game, 116th at 427.6 yards per game and 118th at 6.4 yards per play.

Bowling Green has a balanced offense that averages 5.9 yards per play against a brutal schedule that features Penn State and Texas A&M in non-conference.  This BG offense put up 41 points on a solid Toledo defense two games ago.  I fully expect one of their best offensive performances of the season tonight against Western Michigan in what will be a shootout with very few stops.  The forecast looks good with no wind or precipitation, either.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Ball State/Buffalo OVER 53.5

Ball State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Cardinals are 7-1-1 OVER in all games this season.  They have a respectable offense, but their defense is one of the worst in the country.  They rank 132nd in scoring at 38.9 points per game, 129th in total defense at 461.3 yards per game and 134th at 7.2 yards per play.

Buffalo runs an up-tempo offense that ranks 33rd in the country in seconds per play.  The Bulls have scored 30, 41 and 41 points in three of their last four games and should be able to name their number on this Ball State defense.  The Bulls rank 97th in scoring defense allowing 29.0 points per game and 105th in total defense at 408.7 yards per game.  The Cardinals should be able to keep pace.

The OVER is 5-0 in Bulls' last five games overall with 63 or more combined points in each of their last three games.  The forecast looks good for a shootout with no wind or precipitation, which is rare for these midweek MAC games in November.  We'll take advantage.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* UCF/ASU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 55.5

The UCF Knights are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 28th in tempo this season snapping the ball every 24.2 seconds.  Gus Malzahn has always been known for his up-tempo offenses, and he has this UCF offense rolling now that he handed over coordinator duties and fired his defensive coordinator.

Amazingly, UCF has been through three different starting quarterbacks, but it looks like they should have been starting Dylan Rizk the entire time.  He came in at the end of the BYU game two weeks ago and completed 6-of-10 passes for 102 yards and a TD to close out that game.  Malzahn has been missing a QB that can actually throw the ball all season, and he finally has one in Rizk, who is also a dual-threat.

Rizk got his 1st start last week and completed 20-of-25 passes for 294 yards and 3 TD while also rushing for 55 yards on 9 carries in a 56-12 win over Arizona.  He led this high-powered UCF offense to 602 total yards against Arizona in the win.  This offense is much more versatile with Rizk who can actually complete a forward pass moving forward.

It's amazing the success this UCF offense has had without that being the case to this point.  They still rank 10th in total offense at 471.1 yards per game and 10th at 6.9 yards per play largely due to a rushing attack that ranks 2nd in the country at 272.3 yards per game.  Having the threat of a pass will actually open up the running game for electric RB BJ Harvey (1,201 yards, 16 TD, 7.0/carry) even more moving forward.

Arizona State has a better offense than it gets credit for this season averaging 417 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  The Sun Devils have great balance averaging over 200 yards per game both rushing and passing.  They average 31.1 points per game on the season.

The Sun Devils are coming off a 42-21 win at Oklahoma State and 63 combined points.  They racked up 529 total yards with QB Sam Leavitt making his return from injury.  Leavitt threw for 304 yards and 3 TD in the win.  They may need to rely on him more if RB Cam Skattebo can't go as he is questionable after suffering an injury last week.  But ASU being more pass-heavy would only benefit the OVER even more.

The OVER is 7-2 in all UCF games this season with 59 or more combined points in seven of their nine games.  The OVER is 4-3-1 in all Arizona State games this season with 52 or more combined points in six of those eight games.  The forecast looks perfect for a shootout Saturday night with temps in the 70's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Maryland +25

I always like fading the No. 1 team in the country in the initial college football playoff rankings.  Oregon has that distinction this week, and with that No. 1 ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are very difficult to live up to.  I think Oregon is inflated as a 25-point favorite over Maryland this week.

The Ducks are feeling 'fat and happy' now sitting at 9-0 and coming off a 21-point win over Michigan, covering as 14.5-point favorites only after a TD in the final seconds when they could have kneeled.  That wasn't normal for Dan Lanning who has been more than content with taking the air out of the ball in the 2H of games this season.

While we'll 'sell high' on the No. 1 ranked team in the country, we'll 'buy low' on the Terrapins at the same time.  They are coming off a bad 48-23 loss at Minnesota last time out.  You could see it coming because this was a tired Maryland team playing for an 8th consecutive week to start the season.

But now the Terrapins finally got their bye last week, and they will come back refreshed and motivated to give Oregon a run for its money this week.  Keep in mind this is a Maryland team that played Indiana as tough as anyone has this season on the road.  They only lost 42-28 to the Hoosiers, and that loss is aging very well considering the Hoosiers are blasting everyone else.

Now it's Oregon that is the tired team playing for a 7th consecutive week and coming off a physical game against Michigan.  This looks like their letdown spot, especially with an even bigger game on deck at Wisconsin next week.

Maryland is outgaining opponents by more than 50 yards per game this season.  The Terrapins only allow 105.2 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry, ranking in the Top 20 in run defense in both categories.  They will be able to stop the run in this game in the 2H to get the ball back for underrated QB Billy Edwards.

Edwards is completing 68.4% of his passes for 2,314 yards with a 13-to-6 TD/INT ratio on the season.  He has two elite receivers to get the ball to in Felton and Prather, who have combined for 118 receptions for 1,394 yards and 9 TD on the season.  I expect the rejuvenated Terrapins to keep coming for four quarters and to stay within this inflated 25-point spread.  Bet Maryland Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Jacksonville State -10

Jacksonville State is a juggernaut right now.  The Gamecocks are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games while outscoring their opponents 234 to 85 in those five games.  They have covered the spread by a combined 87 points in those five games.

The Gamecocks have won each of their last five games by double-digits, and now I think they'll make it 6 in a row against an overmatched Louisiana Tech team Saturday.  Jacksonville State got a much-needed bye last week after playing four consecutive weeks.  They will come back rejuvenated and ready to chase down a C-USA title currently sitting tied for 1st with WKU at 4-0 within the conference but only one game ahead of Sam Houston State.

LA Tech is just 3-5 SU this season despite playing one of the softest schedules in the entire country.  In fact, the Bulldogs' schedule ranks 152nd in the country, which means there are about 20 FBS teams that have played a tougher schedule than they have.  That makes their 3-5 record that much worse.

Jacksonville State ranks 15th in the country in scoring offense at 38.6 points per game, 12th in total offense at 464.9 yards per game and 8th at 7.1 yards per play.  The Gamecocks just keep coming under Rich Rodriquez ranking 11th in tempo as well, so they get a lot of possessions.

LA Tech doesn't have the firepower on offense to keep up with the Gamecocks.  Offense is the Bulldogs' biggest weakness as they rank 112th in scoring at 21.2 points per game, 105th in total offense at 344.9 yards per game and 124th at 4.9 yards per play.  If they get behind, which they will, they don't have the capability to catch up.  Bet Jacksonville State Saturday.

20* Georgia/Ole Miss ABC No-Brainer on Ole Miss +3

The Ole Miss Rebels are 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS this season with some of the best numbers in the country.  Numbers even better than Georgia, which makes me believe the wrong team is favored here catching 3 points at home with the Rebels.

Ole Miss ranks 2nd in the country in total offense at 554.0 yards per game and 2nd at 7.7 yards per play with the usual elite Lane Kiffin offense.  But it's the defense that makes this team different than in year's past. The Rebels only allow 317.8 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play, which ranks 5th in the country.  They are outgaining their opponents by 236 yards per game and a ridiculous 3.3 yards per play.

Let's just compare that to Georgia.  The Bulldogs averaged 431 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play on offense and allow 295 yards per game and 4.7 per play on defense.  They are outgaining opponents by 136 yards per game and 1.7 yards per play, and while elite, that's about half as much as Ole miss is outgaining its opponents by this season.

Georgia QB Carson Beck gets too much respect and is having a terrible season.  He has a 10-to-11 TD/INT ratio in his last five games coming in.  The Bulldogs were lucky DJ Lagway got hurt in the 1H against Florida last week because the Gators had them on the ropes.  That game was tied 20-20 with under 5 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter to show just how vulnerable this Georgia team really is right now.

The Bulldogs are 7-1 SU but just 2-6 ATS and they have been overvalued for a few seasons now.  They will slip up this week, and Kiffin will finally get over the hump and beat an elite team because he finally has the horses to get it done.  Ole Miss is the better team this season and that will show on the field Saturday afternoon.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on San Jose State +3

The San Jose State Spartans sit at 5-3 on the season one win away from bowl eligibility.  They come off their bye week and off their worst loss of the season to Fresno State.  It was a misleading loss as the Spartans lost by 23 despite only getting outgained by 22 yards.

Now the Spartans come back as 3-point dogs this week at Oregon State when I believe they should be favored and will win this game outright.  Their other two losses came on the road by 7 at Colorado State and by 2 at Washington State, and those losses look even better now with Colorado State in line to make the MWC Championship Game, and Washington State sitting at 7-1 SU this season with their only loss to Boise State.

As much as I like this San Jose State team, this is as much of a fade of Oregon State as anything.  The Beavers are in limbo right now without a conference and it looks like they packed it in in their last game.  They lost 44-7 at California while giving up 478 yards to the Bears and only managing 200 total yards themselves.  They got outgained by 278 yards.  I think that's a sign of things to come for the Beavers the rest the way.

And while the Spartans are as healthy as pretty much anyone in the country right now coming out of their bye week, the Beavers have three players out and another eight questionable on their injury report.  They especially have a ton of injuries on defense which explains how they could give up 44 points and 478 yards to Cal.  This is a great SJSU run-and-shoot offense that will take advantage as well.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

15* Michigan/Indiana CBS ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -14

The books just can't set these Indiana spreads high enough, and they haven't set it high enough this week either.  When a team has a turnaround like Indiana has it takes the books and the betting public a long time to catch up.  The Hoosiers are legitimately one of the best teams in the country and nobody wants to believe it.

Indiana is 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS this season and would be 9-0 ATS against the opening line as they failed to cover the closing line in Week 1.  Their games haven't even been close as all nine of their wins have come by 14 points or more.  They are covering the spread by an average of 17.2 points per game in their nine games this season.  There is nothing fluky about it when you dig into the numbers.

The Hoosiers rank 2nd in the country in scoring offense at 46.6 points per game, 8th in total offense at 476.2 yards per game and 5th at 7.1 yards per play.  They rank 7th in scoring defense at 13.7 points per game, 3rd in total defense at 261 yards per game and 3rd at 4.3 yards per play.  They are outscoring opponents by 33 points per game and outgaining them by 215 yards per game and 2.8 yards per play.

If you just changed the name of their team to Ohio State and gave them the same numbers, they would be favored by 24-plus points against Michigan.  But the Hoosiers remain undervalued this week.  QB Kurtis Roarke returned from injury last week and proved he is just fine in leading Indiana to a 47-10 beat down over Michigan State at home.  That's the same Michigan State team that took Michigan to the wire a few weeks ago.  Roarke threw 4 TD passes in the win.

Michigan had its 'all in' game last week against Oregon in a 38-17 defeat at home.  The Ducks held the Wolverines to just 11 first downs and 270 total yards, while rackng up 470 yards against what was supposed to be a good Michigan defense.  I think Indiana can dominate Michigan just as well as Oregon did, and they are laying 14 at home whereas Oregon was laying 14.5 on the road.

Offense has been the problem for Michigan all season.  They just don't have a QB who can throw an accurate forward pass, and their talent at receiver is embarrassing.  The Wolverines rank 116th in scoring at 21.0 points per game, 127th in total offense at 299.4 yards per game and 128th in passing at 134.3 yards per game.

Michigan relies heavily on running the football, and that makes this a terrible matchup for them.  The Hoosiers rank 1st in the country allowing just 72.6 rushing yards per game and 2nd at 2.5 yards per carry.  When the Wolverines fall behind, which they will, they have no way of catching up.  Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti has no problem running up the score, and he would love to make a statement here against the defending champs.  I also like the fact that Indiana has a bye on deck next week so will be 'all in' this week.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on NC State -3

I was on NC State last week as 9.5-point favorites over Stanford.  They crushed the Cardinal 59-28 covering the spread by more than 20 points.  I'm back on NC State for many of the same reasons this week.

The Wolfpack are undervalued right now after starting the season just 1-7 ATS.  They played a brutal schedule having to play eight consecutive weeks to open the season.  They finally got a bye last week to regroup, and now they remain fresh and ready to go this week off that blowout win over Stanford.

It's also a motivated NC State team sitting at 5-4 and looking for that 6th win to get bowl eligible.  I saw 'buy' signs on this team in their final two games going into the bye, especially with freshman QB CJ Bailey.

Three games ago, the Wolfpack lost 24-17 at home to Syracuse.  But that was a hugely misleading final as the Wolfpack were -3 in turnovers, which was the difference in the game. Bailey played great, completing 17-of-24 passes for 329 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.

Bailey backed it up two weeks ago, completing 25-of-36 passes for 306 yards and 2 TD without an INT in a 24-23 comeback victory at California as 9-point dogs.  That was a very good Cal defense he shredded.  And last week Bailey threw for 234 yards and 3 TD in leading the Wolfpack to 59 points against Stanford in that blowout win.

While I think it's a great spot for NC State, I think it's a terrible spot for Duke.  The Blue Devils are coming off consecutive frustrating losses to SMU by 1 in OT two weeks ago and then 53-31 to Miami last week.  They were fortunate to even be competitive with SMU considering the Mustangs were -6 in turnovers and still managed to win.

But last week the Blue Devils had the unbeaten Hurricanes on the ropes actually leading that game 28-17 in the 3rd quarter.  That's when it all fell apart.  Miami outscored Duke 36-3 in the final 22 minutes and turned on the after burners to not only win by 22, but actually cover the 21-point spread.

That was a tough beat for Duke bettors, and it's a very tough spot for Duke now.  They have to try and get back up off the mat off those two frustrating losses that eliminated them from ACC title contention.  They sit at 6-3 and already bowl eligible, and I question how motivated they'll be the rest of the way now.  

This is the obvious flat spot for them, and I know they won't be nearly as motivated to beat NC State as they were to try and take down SMU and Miami the last two weeks.  I also question how much they'll have left in the tank playing for a 4th consecutive week with the last three games all going down to the wire.  This has Wolfpack blowout written all over it.  Bet NC State Saturday.

25* CFB Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on UConn/UAB OVER 56.5

The UAB Blazers are a dead nuts OVER team.  The main reason is a poor defense that ranks 125th in the country allowing 35.5 points per game.  They also rank 33rd in tempo playing much faster than average.  The OVER is 5-1 in UAB's last six games overall with 54 or more combined points in all six games, including 59 or more combined points in five of them.

This UAB offense has come to life since the switch to Jalen Kitna at quarterback.  He threw for 239 yards and a TD in a 71-20 loss to Tulane four games ago, 242 yards and a TD in a 44-10 loss at Army three games ago, 384 yards and 2 TD in a 35-25 loss to USF two games ago and 404 yards and 6 TD in a 59-21 win over Tulsa last week.

UConn isn't known for a high-powered offense, but the Huskies will have one of their best outputs of the season this week against UAB.  They played a Georgia State team with a similar profile with a decent offense and poor defense last week.  They won 34-27 for 61 combined points.  The Huskies also play faster than average ranking 47th in tempo, so there will be a lot of possessions in this game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Boston College -1.5

I love the spot for the Boston College Eagles this week.  They sit at 4-4 on the season and in desperate need of a win this week if they want to make a bowl game.  They are coming off three consecutive losses and they were a very tied team having to play eight consecutive weeks to start the season.

That's why the bye couldn't have come at a better time last week to allow the Eagles to rest, get healthy and refocus for the stretch run under first-year head coach Bill O'Brien.  Bye weeks are always more beneficial for first-year head coaches, and I expect O'Brien to get the most out of his team in these two weeks.

The Orange bounced back from a 41-13 loss at Pittsburgh with a 38-31 (OT) home win over Virginia Tech last week.  But that was a Virginia Tech team missing it's starting QB and it's starting RB, and the Orange still needed OT to put the Hokies away.  They had to use a lot of energy to come back from a 21-3 deficit in the 2H just to force OT, so I question how much they'll have left in the tank for BC this week.

I have not been impressed with Syracuse on the road this season despite their 2-1 SU record.  They had that 28-point loss at Pitt, and their 24-17 win at NC State was very misleading.  They benefited from being +3 in turnovers in that game.  Their 44-41 (OT) win at UNLV was also fortunate.

Syracuse QB Kyle McCord consistently puts the ball in danger with 12 interceptions thrown already this season.  Boston College has 11 interceptions on defense and is a ball-hawking unit, and I think turnovers in their favor will be the difference, plus the fact that they are the more rested, prepared team coming off a bye week.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

20* New Mexico/San Diego State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 67.5

New Mexico is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Lobos are 7-2 OVER in all games this season with 64 or more combined points in seven of their nine games this season.  That includes 94, 95, 89 and 90 combined points in four of their last five games coming in.

Bronco Mendenhall has brought his up-tempo offense to New Mexico as the Lobos rank 30th in tempo.  They are 26th in scoring offense at 34.8 points per game, 7th in total offense at 480.1 yards per game and 18th at 6.8 yards per play.  They have great balance rushing for 231 yards per game and throwing for 249 yards per game.  QB Devon Dampier is a stud, throwing for 2,243 yards and 10 TD while also rushing for 13 scores.

But this New Mexico defense is a dumpster fire.  The Lobos rank 132nd in scoring defense allowing 40.8 points per game, 131st in total defense at 492.3 yards per game and 132nd at 7.1 yards per play.  They recently found themselves in shootouts with two of the worst offensive teams in the country, which shows how bad their defense really is. They beat Air Force 52-37 and lost to Wyoming 49-45.

Sean Lewis brought his flash-fast offense to San Diego State.  The Aztecs are indeed playing fast, ranking 16th in the country in tempo at 23.6 seconds in between snaps.  So there will be a ton of possessions in this game.  And while it has been an up-and-down season for this SDSU offense, they are in line for their best performance of the season just like previously dead Wyoming and AF offenses.

The OVER is 3-1 in San Diego State's last four games overall with the lone under going under by 1.5 points.  They are coming off a 56-24 loss to Boise State last Friday that saw 80 combined points.  This thing should sail OVER the number again tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Iowa/UCLA FOX ANNIHILATOR on UCLA +5

For starters, UCLA has played the single-toughest schedule in the entire country up to this point.  The Bruins have been through the gauntlet, which is why it was so important that they got a bye two weeks ago to recover.

UCLA has already had to face the likes of Indiana, Oregon and Minnesota at home as well as LSU, Penn State, Rutgers and Nebraska on the road.  The Bruins have shown great improvement each week going 5-1 ATS in their last six games.  They only lost by 17 at LSU as 21-dogs, by 21 at home to Oregon as 23.5-point dogs, by 16 at Penn State as 29.5-point dogs, by 4 to Minnesota at home as 3.5-point closing dogs, and won outright at Rutgers 35-32 as 4-point dogs going into their bye.

The Bruins came out of their bye refreshed last week and it showed, upsetting Nebraska 27-20 as 7.5-point road underdogs.  There was nothing fluky about that result as the Bruins outgained the Huskes 6.5 to 4.5 yards per play in the game.

A big reason I'm backing the Bruins again this week is because they match up well with Iowa.  The Hawkeyes need to be able to run the football to be successful, and the Bruins are one of the best defenses in the country at stopping the run, which is even more impressive when you consider their strength of schedule.  UCLA ranks 12th in the country allowing 100.4 rushing yards per game and 18th at 3.3 yards per carry.

Iowa made the switch to dual-threat Brendan Sullivan at quarterback finally two games ago in the 2H of their 40-14 win over Northwestern.  They stuck with him for their 42-10 home win over Wisconsin last week.  Those two results have the Hawkeyes overvalued now, and with a couple games of film on him, I expect the Bruins to come up with the proper game plan to slow the Hawkeyes down this week.

Iowa hasn't seen many QB's as good as Ethan Garbers of UCLA, and the weakness of this Iowa defense is their pass defense.  Iowa State, Michigan State and Ohio State all had success throwing the football on them.  Garbers is completing 65% of his passes for 1,703 yards with 10 touchdowns this season despite the brutal schedule.  He has a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last two games, wins over Rutgers and Nebraska.

Iowa hasn't had any success under Kirk Ferentz on the West Coast, and this is a tough travel spot for them on a short week.  Bet UCLA Friday.

20* FAU/ECU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 57.5

This East Carolina offense has taken off in recent weeks to match the fast pace they play at.  The Pirates rank 4th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.5 seconds.

The OVER is 3-0 in ECU's last three games overall with a 55-24 loss to Charlotte for 79 combined points, a 45-28 loss to Army for 73 combined points and a 58-34 win over Temple for 90 combined points.  The switch to Kevin Houser at QB has made a big difference, and he just threw for 269 yards and 5 TD against Temple last time out.

The FAU Owls are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall.  They lost 41-37 to North Texas for 78 combined points, lost 38-24 to UTSA for 62 combined points and lost 44-21 to USF for 65 combined points.

Both defenses leave a lot to be desired, and both offenses should have their way in this one.  FAU is allowing 41 points per game and 498 yards per game in its last three games.  East Carolina is allowing 44.7 points per game and 454.7 yards per game in its last three games.

Florida Atlantic also prefers to play fast ranking 42nd in the country in tempo.  So this game will see a ton of possessions with ECU ranking 4th in tempo leading the way and controlling the pace playing at home.  The forecast looks great for a shootout as well with temps in the 60's, no wind and only 14% chance of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on NIU/Western Michigan OVER 51.5

Western Michigan is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Broncos are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 56 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  It will be more of the same tonight as they host Northern Illinois.

Western Michigan has one of the best offenses in the MAC ranking 28th in the country in scoring offense at 34.0 points per game and 24th at 6.6 yards per play.  But the Broncos also have one of the worst defenses in the country, ranking 117th in scoring defense at 33.8 points per game, 119th at 429.6 yards per game and 119th at 6.3 yards per play.

Northern Illinois has a very good, balanced offense that is averaging 397.1 yards per game this season.  The Huskies are in line for their best offensive output of the season tonight against this suspect WMU defense.  

I expect the Broncos to keep pace behind arguably the best QB in the MAC in Hayden Wolff, who completes 69% of his passes with a 15-to-3 TD/INT ratio.  RB Nixon (7.2 YPC, 10 TD) is also tough to tame.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Baylor -3

Baylor is exactly the type of team I like to back at this point of the season.  They are much better than their 4-4 record would indicate, and they are showing a lot of fight right now trying to make a bowl game late in the season.

Baylor has legit road losses to Utah and Iowa State, but the Bears really should be 6-2 this season.  Colorado needed a hail mary to force OT to beat them in Boulder, and the other loss came by 6 at home to BYU, which is currently undefeated.  Nobody has played BYU tougher than Baylor did.  They actually outgained the Cougars 387 to 367 for the game.

Sitting at 2-4 on the season after the loss to Iowa State, the Bears could have packed it in going into their bye week.  Instead, they have responded with two of their best performances of the season.  They crushed Texas Tech 59-35 on the road behind 629 total yards of offense two weeks ago.  Last week they beat Oklahoma State 38-28 at home behind another 565 total yards.

TCU is 5-3 this season it has come against a much softer schedule than Baylor has played.  The five wins have come against Stanford, FCS Long Island, Kansas, Utah without Cam Rising and Texas Tech.  They also lost outright to Houston as 16-point favorites, their home loss to UCF looks even worse now, and they lost by 24 to the best team they have faced thus far in SMU.

TCU needed a 17-point comeback in the 2nd half to beat Texas Tech by 1 last week.  This came after the Red Raiders lost their starting QB to injury as well.  And that give these teams a recent common opponent.  Baylor just blasted Texas Tech by 24 two weeks ago.  No question the Bears are the team playing the better football right now.

There is a good chance of wind and rain in this one, and Baylor is by far the superior rushing team with much better balance on offense than TCU.  The Horned Frogs only average 102 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry, and Baylor only allows 3.7 yards per carry on defense.  Baylor averages 176 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry on offense, while TCU allows 166 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry on defense.

Finally, Baylor wants revenge from four consecutive losses to TCU in this head-to-head series, including a couple heartbreakers.  I think they have the better team this season and will finally get it done, plus they are at home here where they have played their best football this season.  They should be more than 3-point home favorites.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Navy -11

The Navy Midshipmen have been an absolute wagon this season going 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS.  But they just lost to Notre Dame last week 51-14 for their first defeat of the season.  That misleading final score has the betting public off their scent, and now is the time to 'buy low' on the Midshipmen off that embarrassing loss.

Navy isn't eliminated from the 12-team playoff yet, and a big finish could get them in.  They still have chances to impress coming up including games against two very good teams in Tulane and Army.  But it starts with a rebound this week against a terrible Rice team.

The reason that loss to Notre Dame was misleading was because Navy uncharacteristically committed six turnovers that set up a bunch of easy points for the Fighting Irish.  Ball security will be at the forefront of their game plan for Rice, and I expect them to execute flawlessly this week.

Rice is 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS this season and just fired its head coach in Mike Bloomgren, who had taken them to a bowl the last two years.  I think this is a program in turmoil now and I don't think they should have fired him.  There's just not a lot to like about this Rice team.

Rice doesn't have the firepower to keep up with Navy in this one.  The Owls were held to 10 points each of the last two weeks, and their lone touchdown last week against Connecticut came on a kickoff return.  They rank 109th in scoring offense at 21.6 points per game and 114th in total offense at 329.6 yards per game.

Navy ranks 10th in scoring offense at 40.4 points per game.  Rice faced a similar Army team earlier this season and got blasted 37-14.  They allowed 288 rushing yards to the Black Knights.  Navy will have similar success and win this one going away.  Bet Navy Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on UCLA +7

For starters, UCLA has played the single-toughest schedule in the entire country up to this point.  The Bruins have been through the gauntlet, which is why it was so importanta that they got a bye last week to recover.  Now rested and ready to go, I expect a big effort from the Bruins this week at Nebraska.

UCLA has already had to face the likes of Indiana, Oregon and Minnesota at home as well as LSU, Penn State and Rutgers on the road.  The Bruins have shown great improvement each week going 4-1 ATS in their last five games.  They only lost by 17 at LSU as 21-dogs, by 21 at home to Oregon as 23.5-point dogs, by 16 at Penn State as 29.5-point dogs, by 4 to Minnesota at home as 3.5-point closing dogs, and won outright at Rutgers 35-32 as 4-point dogs going into their bye.

I think the spot is terrible for Nebraska.  After losing 56-7 at Indiana two weeks ago, Nebraska showed some great fight last week in nearly upsetting Ohio State in a 21-17 defeat as 25-point road dogs.  I think that effort has them overvalued, and it's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.  Their chances of winning the Big Ten are now crushed with three conference losses, and I just don't see them being nearly as motivated to face UCLA as they were to face Ohio State.

Nebraska lost 31-24 (OT) at home to Illinois as 9.5-point favorites and only beat Rutgers 14-7 as 7-point favorites in their last two home games.  It's not as big of a home-field advantage as it is cracked up to be.  The Huskers should not be 7-point home favorites against UCLA here.

There is expected to be rain and wind in this game, which will keep scoring suppressed, which also means that each point is worth more so getting +7 is a nice value.  The Huskers have cluster injuries in the secondary that UCLA QB Ethan Garbers should be able to take advantage of.  

The Bruins have one of the best defensive lines in the country, allowing just 98.6 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry this season.  That's really impressive when you consider their strength of schedule.  They will stop Nebraska's suspect rushing attack, which averages 126.4 yards per game and 3.7 per carry on the season.  UCLA's ability to compete with Nebraska in the trenches is a big reason they get the cover here and possibly win outright.  Bet UCLA Saturday.

20* Florida/Georgia ABC No-Brainer on Florida +17

Everyone threw Billy Napier under the bus after losing to Miami in the opener.  It turns out Miami is one of the best teams in all of college football still unbeaten on the season.  The Gators have been undervalued since, especially in recent weeks, and I like what I've seen from this team in their last few games.  I think they can hang with Georgia in 'The World's Largest Cocktail Party' Saturday as a result.

Florida is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games.  It started with a 45-28 win at Mississippi State in which the Gators racked up 503 total yards.  They came back from their bye week and topped UCF 24-13 as 1-point home dogs.  They held a high-powered UCF offense to just 273 total yards.  They lost 23-17 (OT) as 14-point dogs at Tennessee and deserved to win that game.  They outgained the Vols 361 to 312 for the game, again shutting down another high-powered offense defensively.

The Gators were impressive last time out not letting that loss to Tennessee beat them twice.  They responded with their most complete performance of the season, crushing Kentucky 48-20 as 2.5-point home dogs while outgaining them 476 to 309 for the game.

Freshman sensation DJ Lagway took over at QB for good against Kentucky and threw for 259 yards on only 14 attempts, while also rushing for 46 yards on 10 carries.  He gives them a dual-threat option that Georgia will have to prepare for.  The Bulldogs did not handle their games against other dual-threat QB's well this season, losing outright to Alabama and failing to cover against Auburn.

I think this line is inflated because Georgia won outright 30-15 at Texas in their last game to hand the Longhorns their lone loss this season.  They were 'fat and happy' going into their bye week after making that statement.  But keep in mind Georgia was 0-5 ATS in its previous five games consistently overvalued week after week.  And the Bulldogs are back to being overvalued this week as 17-point favorites against a feisty Gators team.  Bet Florida Saturday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on North Carolina ML -130

The UNC Tar Heels received a much-needed bye two weeks ago.  They entered on a four-game losing streak with several close losses to Georgia Tech, Pitt and Duke.  They could have easily packed it in, instead they responded with their best performance of the season coming out of their bye, and I like the outlook of this team moving forward.

North Carolina crushed Virginia 41-14 as 3.5-point road underdogs last week.  They racked up 428 total yards and held the Cavaliers to just 288 total yards, outgaining them by 140 yards.  I think this is a great time to 'buy low' on the Tar Heels, who are 4-4 SU and 1-6-1 ATS through eight games this season.

The Florida State Seminoles are in the midst of a lost season sitting at 1-7 SU and their lone win was a fluky one against California in which they were outgained 404 to 284 for the game.  The market just cannot adjust for how poor this team is this season going from undefeated last year to now 1-7 this year.  I question how much they care about finishing this season strong.

I think Florida State's 'all in' effort came last week against rival Miami and they came up short, losing 36-14 only after scoring a meaningless TD in garbage time in the final seconds.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat UNC as they were to beat Miami.  If anything, they'll be looking ahead to their matchup with another playoff contender in Notre Dame next week.  That makes this a huge sandwich spot for them.

Florida State's offense is abysmal as they have tried three different quarterbacks and all have struggled.  Uiagelelei completed just 53.8% of his passes, Glenn 45.1% and Kromenhoek 42.9%.  There's just no answer on their roster.  The Seminoles rank 133rd in scoring at 14.9 points per game, 131st in total offense at 272.5 yards per game and 129th at 4.5 yards per play.

UNC has another great QB in Jacolby Criswell, who has a 10-to-3 TD/INT ratio since taking over and is getting better with each passing game.  Omarion Hampton has already rushed for 1,006 yards and 5.6 per carry this season and is one of the best backs in the country.  UNC has far and away the superior offense, ranking 30th in scoring at 33.9 points per game and 28th in total offense at 442.4 yards per game.  

FSU only has a slight edge defensively, but it's not enough to overcome the huge advantage the Tar Heels have on offense.  I think the Tar Heels are in the much better frame of mind fighting for a bowl, are the healthier, more rested and more motivated team, and they should be bigger favorites this weekend as a result.  Bet North Carolina on the Money Line Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Tulsa/UAB OVER 57

Two fast-paced offenses square off Saturday when Tulsa travels to UAB for this AAC showdown.  UAB ranks 25th in tempo at 24.1 seconds between snaps while Tulsa ranks 30th.  Both offenses should have plenty of success against two of the worst defenses in the country in this one.

UAB ranks 129th in scoring defense allowing 37.6 points per game.  The Blazers have allowed at least 32 points in six consecutive games now.  They even allowed 32 points to a poor ULM offense and 35 points to a USF offense that was starting a backup QB last time out.

Tulsa ranks 122nd in scoring defense allowing 35.9 points per game.  The Golden Hurricane have allowed at least 45 points in four of their last six games.  They were in a wild 46-45 shootout last week with UTSA, and I expect more of the same here against this UAB team coming off a bye week that should be much sharper offensively this week with several new wrinkles for them.

The forecast looks great for a shootout Saturday afternoon with temps in the 70's, light winds and zero rain.  These are two teams with not much to play for the rest of the way, and these are the type of games I like to bet OVERS in with the care-free attitude both teams will take to the field.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Auburn -6.5

I've backed Auburn with success in recent weeks and I'm back on them again this week.  They are exactly the type of team I like to back.  They are much better than their 3-5 record would indicate when you dig into their numbers, and because of their poor record they remain undervalued.

Auburn is averaging 6.9 yards per play on offense and allowing just 4.9 yards per play on defense.  The Tigers are outgaining opponents by 2.0 yards per play, which is one of the best marks in the entire country.  It's the sign of a team that would be 6-2 or better instead of one that is 3-5 like Auburn.

But the Tigers got a much-needed bye three weeks ago after covering in an 18-point loss at Georgia as 21-point closing dogs.  They returned from their bye and gave Missouri all they wanted in a 21-17 road loss as closing 3.5-point dogs, which I had them at +4.5 earlier in the week and got the cover.  They were the right side the entire game as they led 17-6 in the 4th quarter before giving up 15 unanswered points.

Auburn took out its frustration last week in a dominant 24-10 win at Kentucky as 2-point underdogs.  This was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed as Auburn racked up 500 total yards on a very good Kentucky defense while giving up just 224 yards, outgaining the Wildcats by nearly 300 yards for the game.

While I'm 'buying low' on Auburn because of its poor SU record, I'm 'selling high' on Vanderbilt after a surprising 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS start this season.  This has been one of the best Vanderbilt teams in recent memory and it's mostly due to getting New Mexico State transfer Diego Pavia at quarterback.

But the Commodores are running on fumes right now and so is Pavia.  They will be playing for a 5th consecutive week and each of their last six games have all gone down to the wire, so they have had no breaks.  They lost by 4 to Georgia State, lost by 3 at Missouri, won by 5 over Alabama, won by 7 over Kentucky, won by 10 over Ball State and lost by 3 to Texas.

Vanderbilt was 'all in' last week trying to upset Texas at home.  It was a 27-24 final as 17-point dogs, but this game was much more of a blowout than the final score showed.  Texas outgained Vanderbilt 392 to 269, or by 123 total yards.  And the Commodores got a big chunk of those yards on their final drive scoring what was basically a meaningless TD in the final seconds to make a 10-point game a 3-point game.

Pavia got injured during the game and actually had to come out before returning.  I just don't know how much he has left in the tank, and I wouldn't be surprised if he misses part of this game either.  The Commodores won't be nearly as motivated to beat Auburn as they were to beat Texas last week, and this looks like the ultimate flat spot for them.  

I expect Auburn to take control early and to keep their foot on the gas for four quarters.  Auburn is a physical running team averaging 5.2 yards per carry with the zone read.  The Commodores won't be able to match their physicality, especially since they are playing for a 5th consecutive week after going through a gauntlet.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Purdue ML +100

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Purdue Boilermakers this week.  They are just 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS on the season and the betting public wants nothing to do with this team right now.  But I've seen some 'buy signs' in their last two games, and I love the fact that they are rested and ready to go coming off a much-needed bye week.

Purdue played six straight games going into their bye week.  Two games ago, they took Illinois to the wire in a 50-49 loss.  In their last game going into the bye, they lost 35-0 to Oregon, but that game was much closer than the final score would indicate.  They were only outgained by 120 yards by the Ducks, but they just kept coming up short time and time again in Oregon territory.

After a brutal six-game schedule of Notre Dame, Oregon State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Illinois and Oregon, the Boilermakers finally get to take a big step down in class here against Northwestern.  While the Boilermakers are fresh and much healthier off their bye week, they face a tired, banged-up Northwestern team playing for a 5th consecutive week.

The Wildcats showed signs of wearing down in their last two games losing 23-3 at home to Wisconsin and 40-14 at Iowa.  They scored both of their touchdowns against Iowa on defense and special teams.  They only managed 163 total yards against Iowa and 209 total yards against Wisconsin.  They have one of the worst offenses in the country.  They rank 123rd in scoring offense at 18.4 points per game and 132nd in total offense at 271.1 yards per game.  Bet Purdue on the Money Line Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on NC State -9.5

This is a good time to 'buy low' on NC State after starting 4-4 SU & 1-7 ATS this season.  The Wolfpack had a bye last week to regroup and make a push to make a bowl game.  I fully expect them to come out of their bye week playing their best football of the season.

The Wolfpack have shown 'buy' signs in their last two games, and they desperately needed a bye after playing eight consecutive weeks to start the season without a bye.  That tough schedule was a big reason for their struggles.

Two games ago, the Wolfpack lost 24-17 at home to Syracuse.  But that was a hugely misleading final as the Wolfpack were -3 in turnovers, which was the difference in the game.  Freshman QB CJ Bailey played great, completing 17-of-24 passes for 329 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.

Bailey backed it up last time out, completing 25-of-36 passes for 306 yards and 2 TD without an INT in a 24-23 comeback victory at California as 9-point dogs.  That was a very good Cal defense he shredded, and now Bailey and company take a big step down in class this week against Stanford.

Now Stanford is the team that that's tired and beat up right now.  The Cardinal will be playing for a 7th consecutive week.  Not to mention, they had cross country trips to Syracuse, Clemson and Notre Dame during this stretch, and now they have to fly back across country again here to face a rested, motivated NC State squad.  I don't expect it to go well for them.

Stanford is 0-5 SU & 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games overall and has rarely even been competitive.  They lost by 26 at Clemson, by 24 at home to Virginia Tech, by 42 at Notre Dame and by 30 at home to SMU.  The only game they were competitive in came last week at home in a 3-point loss to Wake Forest.  But they were outgained by 72 yards by the Demon Deacons, who are one of the worst teams in the ACC.

The spot really favors a blowout by the rested, motivated Wolfpack at home here.  Bet NC State Saturday.

20* San Diego State/Boise State FS1 No-Brainer on San Diego State +23.5

The Boise State Broncos are getting a lot of love now after a 6-1 start and are the favorites to be the Group of 5 team to make the 12-team playoff.  With that hype comes expectations that are very tough to live up to, and I'll gladly fade them in this spot catching 23.5 points with the San Diego State Aztecs Friday night.

The Broncos are coming off their biggest game of the year.  They escaped with a 29-24 win at UNLV last week in what was essentially an elimination game for the 12-team playoff.  I think they breathe a sigh of relief, and they won't be nearly as motivated to beat San Diego State this week, let alone beat them by 24-plus points.

San Diego State is improving rapidly under first-year head coach Sean Lewis.  He led the turnaround at Kent State and that program has been dreadful since he left.  The Aztecs were competitive in each of their last four games losing by 1 at Central Michigan, beating Hawaii by 3, beating Wyoming by 3 and only losing by 3 to Washington State.

That 3-point loss to Washington State last week off their bye week was most impressive.  They actually led 26-14 in the 4th quarter against a very good Cougars team.  They outgained them 414 to 371 for the game, or by 43 total yards.  They won't have any problem getting back up off the mat to face a ranked Boise State team this week.

There is expected to be some weather here with a 60% chance of rain and 15 MPH winds in Boise Friday night.  The tougher scoring conditions makes each point worth more, and thus it will make it much harder for the Broncos to get margin.  They have just two wins by more than 21 points this season and they came against Utah State and FCS Portland State.  I think they'll get more of a fight from the Aztecs than they bargained for in this one.  Bet San Diego State Friday.

15* Tulane/Charlotte ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte +15

The Charlotte 49ers had a bye three weeks ago and are as healthy as they have been all season.  They were coming off upset wins over Rice 21-20 as 4.5-point dogs and ECU 55-24 as 9.5-point dogs going into their bye week.  They came out of their bye as 16.5-point dogs to Navy and lost 51-17.

But that was a very misleading final against Navy.  Charlotte was -5 in turnovers against Navy and gave up two non-offensive touchdowns with an 84-yard INT return TD and a 61-yard INT return TD.  The 49ers actually outgained the Midshipmen 363 to 288 for the game, or by 75 total yards.  Navy had no business scoring 51 points with just 288 total yards.

That misleading final was a big reason I backed Charlotte last week as 17-point closing dogs at Memphis.  The 49ers gave the Tigers all they wanted in a 33-28 loss.  Memphis is just as good as Tulane, and now the 49ers are catching 15 points at home to the Green Wave this week.  This value is too good to pass up again.

I think it's a tough spot for Tulane, and I haven't been all that impressed with the Green Wave in their last couple games.  Two weeks ago they only beat Rice 24-10 as 22.5-point home favorites.  Last week they were fortunate to cover in a 45-37 win at North Texas as 7-point favorites.  They allowed 525 total yards to the Mean Green, and now they are on a short week here and their defense is gassed.  

Not to mention there is a lot of travel involved having to return home from Dallas and now flying out to Charlotte, going clear across the country from Saturday to Thursday.  They also just clinched bowl eligibility getting to 6-2 this season, so this could be a flat spot for them.  Either way, the 49ers are good enough to stay within two touchdowns of the Green Wave.  Bet Charlotte Thursday.