20* Washington/Purdue FOX No-Brainer on OVER 49.5

Purdue is a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and a terrible defense.  The Boilermakers have gone 5-1 OVER in all games this season with 54 or more combined points in five of those six games.  This total of 49.5 is too short for a game involving Purdue.

The Boilermakers are averaging 32.2 points per game and 6.0 yards per play on offense this season despite a tough schedule that has featured Notre Dame, UCLA and Wake Forest, who have a combined one loss.  They are allowing 31.3 points per game and 6.5 yards per play on defense.

A couple reasons this total has been lowered is Washington going with a backup QB and the chance of a little wind and rain tonight.  But Washington's backup may be better than Desmond Williams, who has been a massive disappointment this season.  It has all gone south for Williams since he entered the transfer portal before deciding to return to Washington, which almost never works out.  The chemistry wasn't good with this offense.

Stanford transfer QB Elijah Brown will get the start.  He was one of the top recruits in the country coming out of high school ranked 7th nationally.  Brown came in for an injured Williams early last week against Iowa and completed 28-of-39 passes for 251 yards and 3 TD against a very good Iowa defense.  They lost that game 41-24 for 65 combined points.  That was a bad, bad showing for Washington's defense allowing 465 total yards to a previously lifeless Iowa offense at home last week.

Washington's defensive numbers are propped up from one of the softest schedules of opposing offenses in the country.  They have faced Washington State, Utah State, Eastern Washington, Minnesota, USC and Iowa.  And that USC offense wasn't at full strength.  I'd argue Purdue's offense is the best unit that Washington will have faced this season.  And the Boilermakers should light up this Washington defense.

Purdue just scored 41 points and rushed for 305 yards on a very good Minnesota defense last week.  I think they will have their way on the ground and through the air against a Washington defense that allowed 263 rushing yards to Iowa last week.  And Elijah Brown should light up a poor Purdue secondary that is allowing 8.0 yards per attempt to opposing QB's this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Pac-12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Colorado State/Texas State OVER 70.5

The Colorado State Rams are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 5-0 OVER in all games this season finishing with 82 combined points with Southern Utah, 104 with UTSA and 82 with Oregon State.  The only two games that finished under this total of 70.5 were against two dead nuts under teams in BYU and Wyoming, who play at a snail's pace, but they still went over their totals.

This Colorado State defense is atrocious.  The Rams allow 38.6 points per game, 493.2 yards per game and 7.8 yards per play this season.  But their offense has been electric, averaging 37.4 points per game, 448.4 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play.

Now the Rams face another dead nuts OVER team in Texas State, which is 4-1 OVER in all games this season.  The Bobcats have an elite offense averaging 34.8 points per game, 531.6 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play.  They rank 12th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.7 seconds.  But they have a poor defense as well allowing 33.2 points per game.

We saw Texas State beat North Texas 49-35 at home for 84 combined points.  We saw Colorado State lose 59-45 at UTSA for 104 combined points, a team that profiles similarly to Texas State with an elite offense and poor defense.  And I think this game plays out similarly here as the books just can't set this total high enough.  

Texas State has all of its receivers back and healthy for this game which hasn't been the case all season.  They will not take their foot off the gas, especially after a misleading loss to San Diego State last time out on the road.  Colorado State is going to be forced to play faster to try and keep up in a shootout.  And the forecast looks perfect for a shootout tonight with temps in the 80's, no wind and no rain.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* C-USA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Western Kentucky/Sam Houston OVER 53

Western Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team with an up-tempo offense and a terrible defense.  The Hilltoppers rank 16th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 24.0 seconds.  They will play even faster in conference play, and their offense will look much better with the step down in class.

Western Kentucky allows 35.2 points per game this season.  Most concerning was giving up 49 points to Nevada's suspect offense and 34 points to New Mexico State's suspect offense.  But the Hilltoppers got their offense going against Missouri State last week with 34 points and 464 yards.  And they will hang a big number on Sam Houston State, too.

Sam Houston State has played a tough schedule of opposing defenses which is the biggest reason for their offensive struggles this season.  The Bearkats have played Liberty, Texas Tech, Tulsa and Troy.  Liberty is one of the slowest-paced teams in the country ranking 136th in tempo, and the Flames just bled the clock in their 35-3 win over Sam Houston State last week.  That low-scoring result is keeping this total lower than it should be.

This is the week Sam Houston's offense has a chance to shine like they did in their 59-0 win over Nicholls State.  I actually like Sam Houston QB Landyn Locke, who has put up great numbers despite the stiff competition.  He is completing 66.3% of his passes for 1,306 yards with a 11-to-3 TD/INT ratio.  He will light up this weak WKU defense this week.

Western Kentucky beat Sam Houston 41-24 last season for 65 combined points with a total of 59.5.  So this total has been adjusted down a full touchdown from last season.  And I don't think it's warranted with WKU having a worse defense, and Sam Houston having a better offense and still a poor defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on LSU -7.5

Lane Kiffin has this LSU offense thriving this season.  The Tigers rank 25th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.5 seconds.  They go even faster in competitive games like this one is expected to be with a single-digit spread.  The Tigers are averaging 43.6 points per game, 547.8 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play this season.

But the best unit on the field may just bet this LSU defense, which allows 15.2 points per game, 220.8 yards per game and 3.9 yards per play.  I think the fact that LSU lost at Ole Miss has them undervalued.  That was the National Championship Game for Ole Miss as they wanted revenge.  How LSU has responded since has been very telling.

LSU went on to beat Texas A&M 35-6 at home the next week handing the Aggies their worst loss of the season.  And last week they crushed McNeese State 63-14.  That game allowed their starters to rest in the 2H and stay fresh for this game against Kentucky this week.  Also, LSU needs style points to try and make the 12-team playoff from here on out, which works in our favor here.

Kentucky is an extremely tired team that won't have much left in the tank for LSU.  After a 45-17 home loss to Alabama, the Wildcats went on the road and upset Texas A&M 31-21 to give them a common opponent.  LSU outgained Texas A&M by 309 yards while Kentucky was actually outgained by Texas A&M by 15 yards.

Two weeks ago Kentucky came out flat and only led South Alabama 24-21 at halftime.  They outscored them 21-0 in the 2H in a misleading 24-point win.  South Alabama was also playing with a backup QB that game.  And last week, Kentucky escaped with a 35-34 (OT) win at South Carolina despite getting outgained by 64 yards.  That effort will have taken a lot out of them, and I question how much they'll have left in the tank for LSU this week.

Alabama crushed Kentucky 45-17 in Lexington.  Alabama is easily a Top 5 team in the country, and I really think LSU isn't far behind, and as the season plays out they could overtake Alabama.  I think we see a similar beat down here with LSU winning by double-digits at minimum.

There will be some weather in this game so the team that runs the football better will have the most success.  That will clearly be LSU.  Dual-threat QB Sam Leavitt has rushed for 220 yards and 6 TD this season.  He helps lead a LSU rushing attack that averages 237.8 rushing yards per game this season.  LSU's defense is elite against the run, allowing just 58.6 rushing yards per game and 2.0 per carry.  Kentucky allowed 232 rushing yards to South Carolina, 187 to Texas A&M and 155 to Alabama.  Bet LSU Saturday.

20* LSU/Kentucky ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 52

Lane Kiffin has this LSU offense thriving this season.  The Tigers rank 25th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.5 seconds.  They go even faster in competitive games like this one is expected to be with a single-digit spread.  The Tigers are averaging 43.6 points per game, 547.8 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play this season.

Kentucky has an offensive-minded head coach this season in former Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein.  Stein has the Wildcats averaging 34.6 points per game, 416.8 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play despite a pretty tough schedule to this point.  The OVER is 4-1 in Kentucky's five games this season with 52 or more combined points in all five games.  This total of 52 is pretty short for a game involving Kentucky.

It's also short for a game involving LSU, which is 3-2 OVER in all games this season with 58 or more combined points in four of those five games.  The lone exception was a 35-6 home win over Texas A&M in which they took their foot off the gas late in a scoreless 4th quarter.  Both offenses will keep coming for four quarters in this one and it should easily top this 52-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Duke/Georgia Tech UNDER 48.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 48.5 ticket between Duke and Georgia Tech.  There is an 80% chance of rain throughout and 15-20 MPH sustained winds.  That's going to make it very difficult to pass the ball and for both kicking games.  This will be a low-scoring, defensive battle as a result.

Both teams have defensive-minded head coaches, too.  Manny Diaz has been winning at Duke with defense.  And this Duke defense has been dynamite this season, allowing just 11.0 points per game, 261.8 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  Georgia Tech wants to run the ball, and Duke won't allow it giving up just 63.8 rushing yards per game and 2.3 per carry this season.

The loss of offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner to Florida has been felt, as has the loss of QB Haynes King.  The Yellow Jackets are only scoring 27.0 points per game, averaging 370 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  They are only rushing for 126.3 yards per game and 3.8 per carry this season.  Nothing will come easy for them against Duke.

The Yellow Jackets have a respectable defense allowing 26.0 points per game and 5.5 per play.  They allow 4.3 yards per carry on the ground.  Duke averages 42 rush attempts per game compared by 27 pass attempts.  The Blue Devils want to run the ball too, so the clock will be constantly moving, especially given the weather conditions.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between Duke and Georgia Tech.  We've seen 45 or fewer combined points in each of the last three meetings, and that's even with one OT game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kent State +14

Kent State has played well outside of blowout losses to South Carolina and Ohio State, their two non-covers this season.  They beat Wofford 36-15 as 10.5-point favorites, beat Ball State 26-13 as 3-point favorites and lost to Ohio 13-10 as 3.5-point dogs.  They outgained Wofford by 275 yards, outgained Ball State by 144 yards and outgained Ohio by 13 yards despite the loss.

Now they face another MAC team they can be competitive with in Western Michigan, and they shouldn't be catching 14 points here.  The Broncos have been grossly overvalued since nearly upsetting Michigan in Week 1.  They only beat Rice by 7 as 8.5-point road favorites, lost by 25 to Boise State as only 7.5-point dogs and only beat Buffalo by 3 as 13.5-point favorites.  That's a bad, bad Buffalo team that nearly lost outright to Robert Morris as 27.5-point favorites in a 3-point win the previous week.  Buffalo also nearly lost to Albany in a 4-point win as 18.5-point favorites.

Kent State has one of the best QB's in the MAC in Dru DeShields.  He has thrown for 752 yards while also rushing for 183 yards and 3 TD despite the tough schedule.  He will keep the Golden Flashes in this game for four quarters.  WMU doesn't have a good enough offense to be laying this many points.  The Broncos are averaging just 23.2 points per game, 303.8 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season.

What will help keep Kent State competitive is the fact that both of these teams play at a snail's pace too, so there will be very few possessions in this game and fewer opportunities for the Broncos to pull away. Western Michigan ranks 131st out of 138 teams in tempo snapping the ball every 30.9 seconds.  Kent State ranks 117th snapping it every 29.3 seconds.  Bet Kent State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Appalachian State -9.5

The Appalachian State Mountaineers look like one of the most improved teams in the country.  They have opened 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS with their lone loss coming on the road at NC State by 10 as 12.5-point dogs.  Their lone non-cover came in a 26-21 win over Charlotte as 16.5-point favorites, which was one of the most misleading finals of the season.  They outgained Charlotte by 188 yards in that game and the 49ers had a couple late scores to get in the back door.

Old Dominion is clearly much worse off without QB Colton Joseph, who transferred to Wisconsin and has revived the Badgers this season.  The Monarchs are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS this season with their lone win coming against FCS Norfolk State.  They lost by 23 at Virginia Tech and were upset at home by East Carolina.

But it's the last two games that are the most concerning for ODU.  They lost by 26 at home to James Madison while being held to just 247 total yards.  Their 42-10 loss at Georgia State as only 2.5-point dogs last week was even more concerning.  They were held to 146 total yards by a bad Georgia State defense and they allowed 470 total yards, getting outgained by a whopping 324 total yards.

It's a ODU defense that is wearing down by being on the field so much.  And now the Monarchs will be playing for a 6th consecutive week to start the season and they are out of gas.  Meanwhile, App State is coming off a bye week and will be the much fresher team.  I love the spot for the Mountaineers, who should have no problem winning this game by double-digits.  Bet Appalachian State Saturday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on South Carolina/Florida UNDER 62

This total has been inflated due to both teams being dead nuts OVER teams up to this point.  The Gamecocks have gone 4-1 OVER while the Gators have gone 4-1 OVER as well.  But this is now the highest total for any South Carolina game this season, and the 2nd-highest total for any Florida game.

But a big reason I'm on this UNDER is the weather, which will aid us in cashing.  There's a heavy chance of rain and there will certainly be wind in this game due to the hurricane.  That will make it difficult for both offenses to throw the ball and will hamper the kicking game.

These are two run-heavy offenses as it is which will keep the clock moving.  Florida averages 40 rush attempts compared to 28 pass attempts per game.  South Carolina averages 39 rush attempts compared to 34 pass attempts.  And both defenses have been solid against the run.

South Carolina allows just 100.4 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry this season.  The Gamecocks are expected to get back their best their best defensive player in DE Dylan Stewart from suspension for this game as well to make them even more formidable.  Florida is holding its opponents to 126.4 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry this season.

These are two teams coming off bad losses with South Carolina getting upset by Kentucky at home, and Florida getting blown out by Missouri on the road.  I think the intensity from both teams will come from the defenses after underwhelming performances.  And I think both defenses are a lot better than they showed last week, and that will play out this week.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UCF/Oklahoma State OVER 52

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team with a thriving offense.  In their last three games they put up 39 points and 554 yards on Oregon, 59 points and 662 yards on Murray State and 41 points and 609 yards on West Virginia.  They are in a groove, and now will be even sharper offensively coming out of their bye week.  Eric Morris brought his up-tempo offense from North Texas with him and the Cowboys rank 23rd in tempo this season, snapping the ball every 24.3 seconds.

UCF is coming off two straight unders against two under teams in TCU and Houston who run pro-style, slow offenses.  That has depressed this total enough to provide value with the OVER.  The last time they played an offensive-minded team was Georgia State, when they won 44-30 for 74 combined points.  They allowed 485 yards to Georgia State, and now this is a big step up in class against Oklahoma State's offense.

The Knights aren't going to get away with playing slow in this game because Oklahoma State is going to score, and UCF is going to be forced to try and keep up in a shootout.  I also think too much is being made of the injury to UCF QB Alonza Barnett.  He wasn't that good when he was healthy, and FIU transfer Keyone Jenkins is better than he gets credit for.  Jenkins is completing 69.7% of his passes in a couple starts thus far.

UCF also had to play three quality defenses in Pitt, TCU and Houston.  Oklahoma State does not have a quality defense.  The Cowboys allowed 31 points to Oregon despite knowing their plays.  They allowed 467 yards to West Virginia, including 335 on the ground.

While there is weather across the country, there won't be in Stillwater Saturday.  Temps will be in the 80's with no precipitation and only light winds for this game.  Both passing offenses will thrive, and this total of 52 is simply too short for a game involving the Cowboys' high-octane offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on West Virginia +3.5

I love the spot for West Virginia Saturday.  The Mountaineers are coming off consecutive Big 12 losses to open the season to Oklahoma State at home and Iowa State on the road.  They actually led Oklahoma State by 3 before giving up the final 20 points in that game in the final 18 minutes.  They lost a back and forth shootout by 3 on the road to the underrated Cyclones.

But this is more of a play against Arizona as anything.  The Wildcats are 1-4 ATS this season and I just think they are being overrated after a 34-7 home win over Cincinnati, taking advantage of the first true road game for the Bearcats last week.  They barely beat Washington State by 10, failed to cover against Northern Illinois and Northern Arizona at home, and lost against by far the best team they've faced this season in BYU by 11.

Now Arizona will be traveling out East for the first time this season for a 12:00 EST start time in Morgantown, which will be a 10:00 AM body clock game for them.  They aren't used to playing this early, and after a late-night game last Saturday against Cincinnati at home last week they have even less time to recover.

And they need to recover given all the injuries they have already suffered on offense.  They are going to be without their three best WR's, their top TD, and two starters along the offensive line this week.  They are without WR's Spivey (22 receptions, 314 yards), Richardson (15, 170) and Hunter (13, 155).  Their defense has been solid, but keep in mind they lost five NFL draft picks in the back seven this offseason and I just don't think they have faced many good offenses that can take advantage.

West Virginia is an elite offensive team that will take advantage.  The Mountaineers are averaging 37.4 points per game, 472 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play.  They also rank 5th in the country in tempo, snapping the ball every 22.4 seconds.  That up-tempo offense will test the tired legs of Arizona, and I expect the Mountaineers to take control in the 2H.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Texas A&M/Missouri OVER 48

Both Texas A&M and Missouri have been in a lot of blowouts this season that have suppressed scoring late in games.  I think this total is too low as a result, and this will be a competitive game with both offenses needing to keep their foot on the gas for four quarters.  Missouri is a 3.5-point favorite over Texas A&M this week.

Missouri has a great offense scoring 37.6 points per game.  That great offense was aided by the addition of Ole Miss transfer, Austin Simmons.  He actually beat out Trinidad Chambliss for the starting job at Ole Miss last year and only lost it due to injury.  Missouri took advantage and nabbed him in the transfer portal.  Simmons has delivered, completing 67.6% of his passes for 1,270 yards with a 13-to-0 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.3 per attempt.  The Tigers just hung 45 points and 560 total yards on Florida last week.

No question Texas A&M isn't an elite offensive team which is why this total is as low as it is.  But the Aggies put up 50 points on Missouri State, 48 on Arizona State and 34 on Arkansas.  They were held in check in a 31-21 loss to Kentucky, but that game still saw 52 combined points.  And they were getting blown out 35-6 by LSU entering the 4th quarter and both teams pulled starters in a scoreless 4th.

This is one of the worst Missouri defenses of the Eli Drinkwitz era.  The Tigers lost a ton of talent on defense to the NFL, and they are dealing with a lot of injuries right now to boot.  They allowed 31 points and 499 total yards to Mississippi State two weeks ago.  Florida's offense was asleep at the wheel last week after beating Ole Miss the weak prior, and Missouri took advantage.  Texas A&M will be able to run the ball on them and that will open things up for Marcel Reed in the play-action passing game.

While there will be weather across the country this week, it won't impact this game at all.  Temps will be in the 80's with no wind and no rain, perfect for a shootout.  The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between Missouri and Texas A&M with 49 or more combined points in all seven meetings.  This total of 48 is too short.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Iowa State/BYU ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Iowa State +10.5

The BYU Cougars are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season against an easy schedule of Utah Tech and Arizona at home, as well as Colorado State and TCU on the road.  And they barely covered the spread in all four games, and because they are 4-0 ATS they are overvalued and it's time to 'sell high' on them.

They beat Utah Tech by 56 as 50.5-point favorites.  They beat Arizona by 11 as 6.5-point home favorites, a game in which Arizona lost its best receiver in the 1st quarter.  They only outgained Arizona by 38 yards.  They only beat Colorado State by 18 as 17.5-point favorites, a Colorado State team that is getting blasted by everyone.  And they only beat TCU by 7 as 5.5-point favorites.  They were actually held to 216 yards and 3.5 yards per pay by TCU but found a way to escape with a victory late.

I think BYU is going to have to try and grind this one out, too.  That's because the Cougars will be without their best playmakers in RB LJ Martin, who won the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year award in 2025.  Martin was well on his way again with 344 rushing yards and 3 TD on 7.8 per carry thus far this season.  It's a huge blow to the offense.  The Cougars will also be without one of their best defenders in LB Isaiah Glasker as well.

Iowa State had a tough time tackling Utah and West Virginia the last two weeks.  But those were two explosive, dynamic offenses.  BYU is not that, making this a much better matchup for them.  They are built for physicality defensively and matched up well with Iowa in a 16-13 loss.  Iowa profiles similar to BYU, a big, physical team that likes to grind you out.  Iowa State matches up well with that.

Iowa State fell behind 21-0 but came back and got within one score of Utah before eventually losing 31-17.  Utah looks like the best team in the Big 12.  The Cyclones came back last week and proved they could win a shootout, beating West Virginia 45-42 behind 577 yards of offense and 7.6 per play.  Their offensive coordinator is one of the best in college football that not too many know about in Tyler Roehl.  He is getting the most out of this offense, and head coach Jimmy Rogers and DC Jesse Bobbit are getting the most out of this defense.  It's just what Rogers does, he wins everywhere he goes and gets the most out of his players.

Iowa State will be 'all in' this week getting to face a Top 10 team and also knowing it has a bye on deck next week to rest.  Look for Roehl to open up the entire playbook and give his team the best chance to win.  RB Aidan Flora was the National Offensive Player of the Week with 5 TD's last week including 2 passing.  It just shows how Roehl is so good at scheming things up.

BYU will not be 'all in' this week.  That's because the Cougars have their biggest game of the season on deck next week as they will be hosting Notre Dame.  Coming off the big road win at TCU last week, and with Notre Dame on deck this next week, it would be easy for the Cougars to overlook the Cyclones.  I expect they'll be in for another dog fight this week and more of a fight than they bargained for against a Cyclones team that has proven they will just keep coming.  Bet Iowa State Friday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Sam Houston State +14

I love the spot for Sam Houston State.  The Bearkats are off a bye and have been off since September 26th.  Meanwhile, they take on a tired Liberty team playing for a 6th consecutive week to open the season and on a short week to boot.  The spot really favors the Bearkats, and I think they have what it takes to keep this game close even if they didn't have the rest advantage.

Sam Houston State looks like one of the most improved teams in the country.  The Bearkats are 1-3 SU but 3-1 ATS this season.  They only lost by 3 at Troy as 16.5-point dogs and actually outgained the Trojans by 31 yards.  They only lost by 6 at home to Tulsa as 12.5-point dogs and outgained them, the same Golden Hurricane team that upset Oklahoma State.  They crushed Nicholls State 59-0 as 21-point favorites.

Perhaps the most impressive performance was going into their bye week when they were going toe-to-toe with Texas Tech for a half.  They only trailed 21-14 at halftime despite two of Texas Tech's TD's coming on Pick 6's.  They eventually lost by 35 as 34.5-point dogs, a brutal beat for Sam Houston State backers.  It was much closer than the final score showed.

It's time to 'sell high' on Liberty after four straight wins and three straight covers.  After losing by 7 at James Madison in the opener, Liberty was life and death with terrible FCS Gardner-Webb as a 28.5-point favorites, winning 24-23.  Then they beat Ball State 51-15 with a backup QB for Ball State.  They then beat Coastal Carolina on the road, and benefited from another QB injury in a 30-14 win at Delaware without their starting QB.  Their luck will run out this week, and they'll be in for more of a fight than they bargained for in this one.

Sam Houston State is actually outgaining its opponents 5.9 to 5.1 yards per play, or by an average of 0.8 yards per play despite the brutal schedule of Troy, Tulsa and Texas Tech in three of their four games.  Liberty is outgaining opponents 6.3 to 5.0 yards per play, or by 1.3 yards per play, but the schedule has been much easier for them.

I think Sam Houston State has the better QB in this game with Landyn Locke, who is completing 66.2% of his passes and averaging 8.1 per attempt with an 11-to-3 TD/INT ratio to boot.  Deshawn Purdie is only completing 60% of his passes and has just 33 rushing yards on 30 attempts, so he's not even a dual-threat for Liberty.  Bet Sam Houston State Thursday.

20* Jax State/Kennesaw State C-USA No-Brainer on Jacksonville State -2.5

I love the spot for Jacksonville State tonight.  The Gamecocks have had this game circled all offseason since losing to Kennesaw State in the C-USA Championship Game last season.  They want revenge, and they will get it in a big way tonight as they have clearly been the better team to this point.

The Gamecocks brought back nine starters from that team that made the title game last season which is a lot for a Group of 6 team.  None more important than QB Caden Creel, who threw for 1,514 yards and 9 TD last season, while also rushing for 1,076 yards and 7 scores as one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country.  Leading receiver Deondre Johnson (724 yards, 6 TD) is back, as are five starters and three of the top four tacklers on defense.

The Gamcocks are off to a 3-2 start this season with their only losses coming on the road at North Dakota State and at Ohio.  North Dakota State looks like a serious playoff contender to challenge for that Group of 6 spot as the Bison remain unbeaten.  The loss to Ohio was a joke as they outgained the Bobcats by 188 yards but found a way to lose in OT.  They dominated in the stats in their home wins over Eastern Kentucky (49-7), Georgia Southern (31-27) and Middle Tennessee (23-13).

Kennesaw State is 1-3 this season and way down from last year.  The Owls' lone win came against FCS West Georgia at home in the opener.  They went on to lose by 14 at home to Georgia State, by 33 at Tennessee and by 3 at Arkansas State.  The Owls were gutted on offense only bringing back two starters.  They lost both QB's in Odom and Williams, their top six rushers, and each of their top four receivers.

It's no wonder this Kennesaw State offense is really struggling this season being held to 17 points by a bad Georgia State defense, 9 points by Tennessee and 14 points by a bad Arkansas State defense.  Their defense has been respectable, but it was a bad defense last year that brought back six starters from a unit that allowed 405 yards per game.

While QB Odom is now starting at Syracuse, Kennesaw State now has former Syracuse QB Rickie Collins as its starter.  That's a bad tradeoff as Odom is the much better guy.  Rickie Collins was terrible at Syracuse last year only playing because of an injury to starter Steve Angeli.  He made five starters for the Orange last season and completed just 54% of his passes with a 6-to-10 TD/INT ratio.  He hasn't been much better for Kennesaw with a 2-to-1 TD/INT ratio in four games.

A quick look at the numbers and it's easy to see Jacksonville State is far and away the superior team.  Jacksonville State averaged 6.6 yards per play on offense and allows 5.0 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.6 yards per play.  Kennesaw State averages 5.5 yards per play on offense and allows 5.8 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 0.3 yards per play.  Bet Jacksonville State Wednesday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +6.5

This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on Temple and 'sell high' spot on South Florida this week.  The Owls are much better than their 1-3 record indicates when you look at the box scores, and the Bulls are much worse than their 4-0 record indicates when you dive into the numbers as well.

Temple is 1-3 SU but 3-1 ATS this season.  After beating Rhode Island 38-14 as 14.5-point favorites in the opener, the Owls lost 27-9 as 24.5-point dogs to Penn State in a game effort back when Penn State was rolling offensively with a healthy Howard at WR.  The 49-48 (OT) loss to Toledo was brutal blowing a 14-point lead in the final minutes.  The 21-17 loss to Army as 3.5-point dogs last week was nearly as bad as they outgained Army by 144 yards and should have won.

South Florida opened with a 19-9 win over FIU as 14.5-point favorites.  The Bulls were outgained by FIU by a whopping 173 yards in a very misleading final.  They trailed that same Army team by 10 points late in the 4th quarter but escaped with a 28-24 win as 3.5-point dogs.  They beat Delaware State 59-17 before only beating Bowling Green 14-6 as 18.5-point favorites last week.  They were actually scoreless going into the 4th quarter against a Bowling Green defense that gave up 56 points to Nebraska and 55 to Iowa State in its previous two games.  Bowling Green may be the worst FBS team in the country, and it took USF to the wire.

Temple has an extra day of rest after losing to Army last Friday.  That extra time to recover and refocus for another conference game here is big.  USF is 'fat and happy' after a 4-0 start and ripe for the upset.  The Bulls also have a big game on deck against UTSA on Thursday on a short week.  After managing just 214 total yards and 4.0 per play against Bowling Green and 208 total yards and 3.7 per play against FIU, this USF offense isn't good enough to be asked to win by a TD or more to beat us this week.  I strongly feel Temple is the better team and we likely won't need the 6.5 points this week, but we'll take them for some insurance.  Bet Temple Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah State +20.5

The Boise State Broncos are overvalued off a 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS start to the season.  Now they are being asked to win by three touchdowns to beat us, which is asking too much.  They are still getting a lot of credit for their 7-point loss to Oregon, but they were outgained by 223 yards by Oregon and should have lost by more.

They went on to beat Memphis 38-20, but they allowed 519 yards and 10.0 yards per play to Memphis in another misleading final.  Their 38-24 win over South Dakota as 28.5-point home favorites was unimpressive.  Their 32-7 win at Western Michigan as 7.5-point road favorites last week is what really has them overvalued.  That was a big game for both teams with Group of 6 playoff implications, and after that win this is a bit of a letdown spot for the Broncos.

Utah State is undervalued after a 1-3 SU & 2-2 ATS start this season against a brutal schedule.  The 29-17 loss to Idaho State in the opener was very misleading.  They outgained Idaho State by 166 yards but were -4 in turnovers to give the game away.  Idaho State is a Top 5 FCS team to boot.  I always like backing teams after a loss to a FCS opponent because it's the type of loss that lingers in bettors' minds.  Had they been dominated in the stats too I would be concerned, but they weren't.

Utah State came back with a near upset of Washington in a 16-14 road loss as 28.5-point dogs.  They were only outgained by 75 yards by the Huskies.  They went on to lose 33-0 at Utah, but Utah looks like the best team in the Big 12 to this point.  They finally got their first win last week in a 21-10 home win over Troy as 3-point favorites.  That's a Troy team that nearly upset Missouri on the road the previous week.  They outgained Troy 7.0 to 4.9 yards per play, or by 2.1 yards per play in a dominant effort.

Despite playing similar strength of schedules, Utah State clearly has the better defense.  The Aggies are only allowing 5.1 yards per play this season, while the Broncos are allowing a whopping 7.0 yards per play.  Their glaring weakness on defense makes me really question their chances as a playoff team.  Their leaky defense will be a problem all year.

Utah State wants revenge from a 25-24 home loss to Boise State last season.  The Aggies have the goods this season to hang with the Broncos, just like they hung with Washington on the road in a 2-point loss in one of the toughest environments in college football.  Bet Utah State Saturday.

20* Big Ten TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Purdue/Illinois OVER 61.5

Purdue is a dead nuts OVER team going 4-0 OVER in all games this season.  They went for 63 combined points with Indiana State, 74 with Wake Forest, 90 with UCLA and 59 with Notre Dame, which has the best defense in the country for my money.  This total of 61.5 is actually too short for a game involving Purdue right now.

Illinois is also a dead nuts OVER team.  The Fighting Illini are 4-0 OVER this season, going for 63 combined points with UAB, 58 with Duke, 58 with Southern Illinois and 61 with Ohio State.  Both teams have great offenses but terrible defenses, and this should be a shootout as a result.

Illinois is scoring 34.0 points per game and averaging 7.0 yards per play on offense.  ECU transfer Katin Houser has been great, completing 68.6% of his passes for 1,021 yards with a 9-to-2 TD/INT ratio.  Collin Dixon has 30 receptions for 430 yards and 7 TD and is the next great Illinois receiver.  The Fighting Illini are averaging 5.5 yards per carry on the ground despite a tough schedule.  What was most impressive was putting up 462 yards and 6.5 yards per play against Ohio State's elite defense last week.

The Fighting Illini switched to a 3-3-5 scheme this season but didn't have the personnel for it.  Illinois just this week mutually parted ways with defensive coordinator Bobby Hauck.  They have been lost defensively and will continue to be lost this week after allowing 518 yards and 7.6 per play to Ohio State.  They also allowed 413 yards to lowly UAB, and 6.6 yards per play to Duke.

Ryan Browne is one of the better QB's in the country that nobody knows about.  He is completing 71.3% of his passes for 1,135 yards with a 7-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.8 per attempt despite the tough schedule.  He has led this Purdue offense to 32.0 points per game and 6.0 yards per play.

Purdue's defensive coordinator needs fired with this performance through four games.  The Boilermakers are allowing 39.5 points per game, 446 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play.  They just don't have much talent on defense.  The Boilermakers play fast on offense ranking 39th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.9 seconds, which puts a lot of pressure on that tired defense that allowed 49 points to Notre Dame's suspect offense last week.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between Illinois and Ohio State.  They combined for 70 points in 2025, 99 points in 2024 and 63 points in 2023.  It should be more of the same in 2026.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 60's, single-digit winds and no precipitation in Champaign for this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Kentucky/South Carolina OVER 53

Kentucky now has an offensive-minded head coach in former Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein.  This Kentucky offense has improved rapidly this season scoring 34.5 points per game while averaging 6.8 yards per play despite a tough schedule that has featured Alabama and Texas A&M.  I love QB Kenny Minchey, who is completing 68.3% of his passes with a 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio.

South Carolina boasts a more up-tempo offense this season.  The Gamecocks are scoring 38.5 points per game while averaging 499.3 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play.  Veteran QB LaNorris Sellers has thrown for 833 yards and 6 TD, while also rushing for 244 yards and a score on 6.8 per carry.  This South Carolina rushing attack has been elite rushing for 262 yards per game and 6.6 per carry.  The Gamecocks will get whatever they want on the ground against Kentucky.

Both defenses are clearly down this season, and South Carolina just suspended its best defender for this game in DE Dylan Stewart after he threw a punch last week.  The Gamecocks lost 5 NFL draft picks on defense from last season as all five were drafted in the first four rounds.  They just allowed 49 points, 489 yards and 8.6 yards per play to Alabama last week.  Kentucky allowed 45 points to Alabama, and it just allowed 21 points in the 1H alone to South Alabama and a backup QB last week.

The Wildcats are 3-1 OVER in all games this season finishing with 52 or more combined points in all four games.  The Gamecocks are 3-1 OVER in all games this season finishing with 54 or more combined points in all four games.  This total of 53 is too short today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida/Missouri OVER 56.5

Florida is a dead nuts OVER team with one of the best offenses in the country behind coordinator Buster Faulkner.  The Gators are 3-1 OVER in all games this season going over the total by an average of 26 points per game.  They went for 87 combined points with FAU, 83 with Auburn and 80 with Ole Miss.  This total of 56.5 is too low for a game involving the Gators, who are going to get their points against everyone.

Florida is averaging 53.5 points per game, 532.8 yards per game and 7.6 yards per play.  RB Jadan Baugh has 600 rushing yards and 11 TD already while averaging 7.2 per carry.  His backup Duke Clark has rushed for 259 yards and 3 scores at 8.1 per carry.  QB Aaron Philo followed Faulkner from Georgia Tech.  He is completing 72.4% of his passes with a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for three scores.

I like Missouri QB Austin Simmons, who beat out Trinidad Chambliss at Ole Miss last year before getting hurt.  He is one of the most talented QB's the Tigers have had in a long time.  Simmons has a 11-to-0 TD/INT ratio this season and is stretching the field with a lot of deep passes outside the numbers.  Cayden Lee and Donovan Olugbode has combined for 46 receptions, 708 receiving yards and 9 TD from Simmons as a proven duo.

Missouri went for 68 combined points with Pine Bluff and 59 points with Kansas in its first two games before playing a grinder against a Troy team with a good defense but a limited offense that also plays slow.  Last week's 31-24 loss to Ole Miss finished with 55 combined points but should have finished with more considering the teams combined for 913 yards of total offense.  That game staying under the 58.5-point total is providing us value to back the OVER at 56.5 against Florida this week, a team with a better offense than Mississippi State.

Both defenses have looked vulnerable in SEC play.  Florida allowed 39 points to Auburn, which is an Auburn offense that has been underwhelming against everyone else.  They allowed 7.0 yards per play to Ole Miss last week.  Missouri allowed 499 yards and 6.4 per play against Mississippi State last week.  That was really the only offense they played with a pulse thus far.  Florida will get what it wants offensively against this Missouri defense that lost a lot of talent to the NFL and brought back just two starters this season.

The forecast looks perfect for a shootout Saturday with temps in the 70's, no wind and no precipitation in Columbia.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Ohio State/Iowa Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Iowa +14.5

Iowa is one team that you can't use advanced stats on or common stats to handicap its games.  The Hawkeyes do the little things well, which is special teams, field position and turnovers that often get overlooked in the betting market.  They have a way of playing to their level of competition, which is why they can beat anyone and lose to anyone, but overall it's a winning strategy that has worked wonders for Kirk Ferentz for years.

The Hawkeyes are a sleeper to win the Big Ten this season.  They finally have a legit offense which was evidenced by putting up 507 yards on Northern Illinois in a 40-0 victory.  They led 33-0 by halftime before calling off the dogs and still put up 507 yards.

They also beat Northern Iowa 55-0 behind 640 total yards.  I know it's an FCS team, but Iowa's offense is improved and wouldn't have put up that many points and yards on NIU and Northern Iowa in the past.  I think their 16-13 win over Iowa State has them undervalued.  That rivalry game is always close, and Iowa State is better than most anticipated.

I backed Iowa +5.5 last week with success against Michigan.  They had the cover in the bag, but went 90 yards on the final drive and won on a walk off dime from Hank Brown in his best throw of the season in a 20-19 win in Ann Arbor.  That's the type of play and throw that will give Brown a ton of confidence moving forward in this Big 12 season.  He actually has legit weapons in WR Diaz and TE Vonnahme, who have NFL futures.

This Iowa rushing attack is as good as it has been in a long time with a deep stable of RB's and one of the best offensive lines in the country.  The Hawkeyes are rushing for 215.5 yards per game and 6.5 per carry.  They have the usual elite Phil Parker defense, holding opponents to 8.0 points per game, 239.8 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play this season.

This Ohio State defense is not as good as most years with 6 draft picks lost.  The Buckeyes are especially sub-par along the defensive line, and I give Iowa's offensive line the advantage here.  Ohio State allowed a big 2H comeback by Texas in a 24-23 loss.  But most concerning was allowing 462 yards and 6.5 per play to Illinois last week.  They allowed 199 rushing yards and 6.0 per carry to the Fighting Illini, so Iowa will have plenty of success on the ground with a better rushing attack than Illinois and Texas.

Iowa's defense is vulnerable to dual-threat QB's like Bryce Underwood of Michigan, who had one of the best games of his career against Iowa in a losing effort.  The Hawkeyes are much better against pocket QB's like Julian Sayin of Ohio State.  He has just 7 rushing yards on the season.  That's one less thing this Iowa defense has to worry about.  Their sole focus will be stopping WR Jeremiah Smith, who is having a Heisman-caliber seasons.  But there's a big drop off from him to their No. 2 receiver.  He has 20 more receptions and 452 more receiving yards than Devin McCuin.

Kinnick Stadium provides one of the biggest home-field advantages in the country for the Hawkeyes.  Just last year, Iowa only lost 20-15 as 9-point dogs to eventual national champion Indiana at home.  Also last year, Iowa lost 18-16 as 6-point home dogs to Oregon, one of the best teams in the country.  Now the Hawkeyes will give Ohio State a run for its money as 14.5-point home dogs, a much bigger number than those two big home games last year.  Bet Iowa Saturday.

20* MWC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wyoming/North Dakota State UNDER 46

Both North Dakota State and Wyoming are mirror images of one another, NDSU just does it better.  Both features run-heavy, slow-paced offenses and rely on defense to win games.  NDSU ranks 129th in tempo snapping the ball every 30.5 seconds, while Wyoming ranks 115th at 29.1 seconds.  There will be very few possessions in this game and fewer opportunities for points as a result.

North Dakota State is 3-1 UNDER in all games this season.  They beat Jacksonville State 33-7 for 40 combined points, Fordham 38-0 for 38 combined points, and Sacramento State 31-10 for 41 combined points.  The lone over was an aberration as both NDSU and Air Force finished with fewer than 400 yards of offense each and it went for 70 combined points.

NDSU is averaging 40 rush attempts compared to 24 pass attempts per game.  They aren't even running it that well averaging 4.0 yards per carry.  But this NDSU defense is elite, allowing 12.3 points per game, 254.8 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play.  I wouldn't be surprised if they come close to shutting out Wyoming in this one.

This Wyoming offense is horrid.  The Cowboys average 17.8 points per game, 326.5 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play.  And they have faced a very soft schedule of Colorado State, Northern Colorado, Central Michigan and Hawaii.  They only managed 13 points against Colorado State, which just gave up 59 points to UTSA and 41 points to BYU the last two weeks.  The Cowboys also only scored 21 points against FCS Northern Colorado and 10 points against Central Michigan.

Wyoming does have a solid defense that will hold North Dakota State in check enough for us to cash this UNDER 46 ticket.  The Cowboys allow just 20.5 points per game this season.  They held Hawaii to 10 points last week at home.  It will be windy with 10-15 MPH winds for this one, which will affect passing and kicking games and slow down both offenses.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Alabama/Mississippi State OVER 59.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams with elite offenses square off in Starkville Saturday in what should be an absolute shootout.  Alabama is 4-0 OVER in all games this season with 67 or more combined points in three of its four games.  Kalen DeBoer has this offense humming.

The Crimson Tide are averaging 48.0 points per game and 7.1 yards per play this season.  They finally have a running game this season averaging 188.3 rushing yards per game.  It helps having a dual-threat QB in sophomore Keelon Russell.  He is competing 70.9% of his passes for 1,129 yards and 8 TD, while also rushing for 168 yards and 3 TD.

Jeff Lebby has this Mississippi State offense humming per usual.  The Bulldogs rank 6th in tempo snapping the ball every 23 seconds.  He has possibly the best QB in program history in Kamario Taylor, who is completing 69.2% of his passes for 1,192 yards with a 14-to-2 TD/INT ratio.  Taylor has also rushed for 185 yards and a score.  He leads a Mississippi State offense scoring 43.0 points per game, averaging 533.3 yards per game and 7.5 per play.

Alabama has scored at least 45 points in all four games this season despite playing Kentucky, FSU and South Carolina already.  The Crimson Tide will get their points in this one, too.  Mississippi State has scored at least 31 points in all four games despite facing Minnesota, South Carolina and Missouri already.  I expect both teams to get 30-plus in this one as this sails OVER the 59.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on West Virginia +3.5

The Iowa State Cyclones took a ton of money again this week.  They opened around +1 and were bet up to -3.5-point favorites as of the time I submitted this pick.  This comes after opening around +12.5 and being bet down to +7.5 last week against Utah.  That money was dead wrong.  This money will be dead wrong, too.

I think Iowa State is getting too much respect for blowout wins over FCS SE Missouri State and Bowling Green, which is one of the worst teams in all of FBS.  They also played Iowa close, but that's a rivalry game that is played close almost every year.  They had it handed to them by Utah last week.

Utah beat Iowa State 31-17 in Ames.  The Utes jumped out to a 21-0 lead and never looked back.  They averaged 6.8 yards per play on offense compared to 4.3 yards per play for Iowa State offensively.  Most concerning were the 28 missed tackles by Iowa State defensively in that game that allowed the Utes to rush for 205 yards and 6.2 per carry.

Those missed tackles will be a problem again this week against a run-heavy, fast-paced West Virginia offense that will keep coming and test the depth of this Iowa State defense, which isn't very good.  The Mountaineers are averaging 294.8 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry this season despite a tough schedule.  That includes 247 rushing yards in their 38-27 win over Virginia and 335 rushing yards in their 41-24 loss to Oklahoma State last week.

And that 41-24 loss to the Cowboys is what has the Mountaineers underred.  Keep in mind Oklahoma State beat Oregon too and had better numbers against Oregon.  The weakness of this WVU defense is its pass defense, and Oklahoma State lit it up for 389 passing yards.  Well, Iowa State has one of the worst passing offenses in the Big 12.

The Cyclones are only averaging 164.8 passing yards per game this season.  Jaylen Raynor is only completing 54.3% of his passes despite a ton of dump offs to running backs.  He's just not a very accurate passer, and the Cyclones don't have the talent at receiver to exploit this WVU pass defense.  Their leading receiver has 156 yards through four games.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

20* Pitt/VA Tech ESPN No-Brainer on Virginia Tech -3

I love the spot for Virginia Tech this week.  With a 4-0 start under James Franklin, Hokie fans are back and excited for this team for the first time in years.  Lane Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and it will be a raucous atmosphere for a Friday night home game in Blacksburg.  Home-field advantage is worth more than 3 points in this situation, and I think these are two pretty evenly-matched teams, so getting the Hokies -3 is a great value.

Virginia Tech has opened 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this season.  After blowout wins over VMI 73-3 and ODU 44-21, the Hokies went on the road and beat Maryland 35-26 as 2.5-point favorites.  I think Maryland quit last week against UCLA and was hungover from the loss to rival VA Tech and just didn't show up, so I'm throwing out that result.

I'm also throwing out the 21-14 win at Boston College last week where the Hokies were life and death with the Eagles.  That game was played in a monsoon and allowed Boston College to stay competitive in the poor weather.  The Hokies still outgained the Eagles by 109 yards in the win.  It was a tough spot for them too in a bit of a letdown after the Maryland win.  The Hokies will have no problem getting back up to face Pitt this week.

Pitt's numbers are inflated right now due to an easy schedule with 4 straight home games to open the season.  Blowout wins over Miami Ohio and Bucknell have really inflated those numbers.  QB Mason Heintschel threw all 13 of his TD passes in those two games, and he didn't throw a single TD pass in the two games he played against teams with a pulse.

Pitt was unimpressive in a 12-7 win over UCF as 7-point home favorites.  Pitt beat Syracuse 27-13 as 10.5-point home favorites, but that game was much closer than the final score.  The Panthers only outgained the Orange by 21 yards.  This is a big step up in class for the Panthers and their first true road game of the season in the most hostile atmosphere they will face all season.  Heintschel has tended to make big mistakes in their biggest games over the last two seasons, and I think he will serve up VT a couple turnovers in this one that will be the difference.

The best unit on the field is Virginia Tech's defensive line and front seven in general.  The Hokies rank 1st in the nation in tackles for loss (45), 1st in line yards per rush and 1st in havoc created.  They will make life difficult on Pitt's rushing attack, and thus force the Panthers to be one-dimensional and capitalize on Hentschel's mistakes.

The Hokies have a veteran QB in Ethan Grunkenmeyer who is not going to make the big mistake.  He is completing 74.3% of his passes with a 8-to-0 TD/INT ratio this season.  RB Overton is a stud with 409 rushing yards and 4 TD on 6.8 per carry.  The Hokies have one of the best TE's in the country in Luke Reynolds, who has 30 receptions for 280 yards and 4 TD. And WR Que'Sean Brown has 26 receptions for 224 yards and a score.  Pitt has great defensive numbers, but hasn't really been tested yet like it will be by the Hokies this week.  Bet Virginia Tech Friday.

20* C-USA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Western Kentucky/New Mexico State OVER 57

Western Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Hilltoppers have gone 3-1 OVER in their four games this season finishing with 63 combined points with Nevada, 90 with Georgia and 59 with Mercyhurst.  The defense is alarmingly bad allowing 41 points per game, 439 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play.

New Mexico State has played a very weak schedule of opposing offenses.  The Aggies are still allowing 29.8 points per game despite that fact.  They lost 34-17 to Florida State, 29-19 to Hawaii and 42-18 to New Mexico.  They beat Mercyhurst 51-14.

Western Kentucky has also played a brutal schedule with three road games at Nevada, Georgia and Indiana to open the season.  They got blown out in all three games and didn't show much offensively especially in the 2H of those games going slower than they normally do offensively.

Both offenses take a big step down in class here against these opposing defenses and should have their way tonight.  I also like the fact that these are two up-tempo offenses.  NMSU ranks 12th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.6 seconds, while WKU ranks 16th snapping the ball every 23.9 seconds.  Look for WKU to play even faster now in conference play.

This New Mexico State offense has been solid despite a tough schedule of opposing defense.  They went for 17 points and 319 yards against FSU, 530 yards against Mercyhurts, 398 yards and 6.2 per play against Hawaii and 400 yards and 5.8 per play against New Mexico, which held Oklahoma to 14 points on the road the week prior.

With both offenses playing fast there will be a ton of possessions in this game and more opportunities for points.  The forecast also looks perfect for a shootout with temps in the 70's, single-digit winds and no precipitation tonight in Las Cruces.  The OVER is 2-1 in the last three meetings with 67, 69 and 51 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Arizona/Washington State UNDER 48.5

The Iowa State Cyclones hired Jimmy Rogers from Washington State.  The Cougars ranked 125th in tempo last season as Rogers played slow to try and give his team the best chance to win knowing he was under-manned.  The result was a 9-3 UNDER record in the regular season and 49 or fewer combined points in 10 of those 12 games.

New head coach Kirby Moore is trying to follow in Rogers' footprints.  He has Washington State playing slow again ranking 122nd in tempo, snapping the ball every 29.9 seconds.  It's easy to see why with this roster absolutely gutted in the offseason.

The result has been a 2-1 record to the UNDER and low-scoring losses to both Washington and Kansas State.  The Cougars lost 24-10 to rival Washington for just 34 combined points.  They lost 34-7 to Kansas State for 41 combined points.  And they beat Duquesne 48-7, getting to flex offensively finally against a lesser opponent.  But now they'll have to get back to a grinder this week against Arizona.

This Washington State offense is broken managing just 242 yards against Washington and 166 yards against Kansas State.  It won't get any easier against this solid Arizona defense that allowed just 19.3 points per game last season.  The Wildcats are allowing 17.3 points per game and 299.7 yards per game despite playing BYU.

Arizona's offense is in trouble with top receiver Gio Richardson out after suffering an injury early in the loss to BYU.  Richardson had 9 receptions for 113 yards in the opener against Northern Arizona, a 35-7 win that saw NAU score its only TD on a Pick 6 in the 4th quarter.  Noah Fifita is lost without him and managed just 17 points against BYU.  It will be tough sledding for Fifita and this Arizona offense this week, too.

Arizona is in no hurry either ranking 107th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 28.9 seconds.  This total of 48.5 is too high tonight for a game involving two slow-paced offenses who are both better on defense than they are on offense.  There will be fewer possessions and fewer opportunities for points as a result.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma State/West Virginia OVER 61

Both Oklahoma State and West Virginia want to play fast and put pressure on opposing defenses with the goal of wearing them out.  There should be a ton of possessions in this game.  Oklahoma State ranks 15th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.9 seconds, while WVU ranks 33rd snapping the ball every 24.8 seconds.

Oklahoma State showed what it was capable of offensively with a 39-31 win over Oregon in Week 2.  The Cowboys gashed a very good Oregon defense for 554 yards and 6.7 yards per play.  They came back with 59 points against Murray State last week.

Rich Rod finally has an offense at WVU.  The Mountaineers put up 31 points quickly against Coastal Carolina in the opener.  They scored 52 on Tennessee-Martin in Week 2.  And last week was the most impressive, beating Virginia 38-27 for 65 combined points to improve to 3-0 OVER this season.

Oklahoma transfer Michael Hawkins has been one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country.  He is completing 68.4% of his passes with 5 TD's, while also rushing for 322 yards and 6 TD already.  Jacksonville State transfer Cam Cook is one of the best RB's in the country, rushing for 317 yards and 3 TD.

Eric Morris brought his best players from North Texas with him to Stillwater.  So far so good with QB Drew Mestemaker throwing for 882 yards and 8 TD, while also rushing for 106 yards and a score.  RB Caleb Hawkins has 261 rushing yards, and WR Wyatt Young has 218 receiving yards and 2 TD to go along with Justin Bowick, who has 281 receiving yards and 3 TD.  

There will be a ton of points in this game, especially with the forecast perfect for a shootout in Morgantown.  Temps will be in the 60's with no wind or rain to speak of.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Wisconsin +10

Penn State is overvalued after opening 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS against one of the softest schedules in the country.  The Nittany Lions have wins over Marshall, Temple and Buffalo.  They have played the 125th-ranked schedule in the country.

Wisconsin is greatly improved this season thanks to finally having a QB in Old Dominion transfer, Colton Joseph.  He has thrown for 752 yards and 5 TD while averaging 8.8 per attempt, while also rushing for 82 yards and a score.  He is the first dual-threat QB Wisconsin has had in a long time, which opens up the entire playbook.

Wisconsin lost 41-13 to Notre Dame in the opener.  It was one of the most misleading finals of the season.  Two turnovers led directly to two quick TD's by Notre Dame.  The Badgers held the Fighting Irish to 350 total yards and were only outgained by 66 yards.  Many believe Notre Dame is the best team in the country.

The Badgers came back with blowout wins over Western Illinois by 27 and Eastern Michigan by 44.  They should still be very fresh for this game, and their offensive line is healthy now after it wasn't in the opener against Notre Dame.  I fully expect the Badgers to give the Nittany Lions a run for their money today.

Penn State WR Koby Howard has been an absolute game-changer.  He has 12 receptions for 344 yards and 2 TD while averaging 28.7 yards per reception.  He has found a great connection with QB Rocco Becht.  Well, Howard suffered an injury last week that will keep him out for this game.  That's a huge blow to this Penn State offense, which will be much more vanilla and easier to defend without him.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

15* Wisconsin/Penn State Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 44.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 44.5 ticket between Wisconsin and Penn State today.  There will be 10-15 MPH sustained winds throughout, which will affect the passing and kicking games for both teams.

Penn State WR Koby Howard has been an absolute game-changer.  He has 12 receptions for 344 yards and 2 TD while averaging 28.7 yards per reception.  He has found a great connection with QB Rocco Becht.  Well, Howard suffered an injury last week that will keep him out for this game.  That's a huge blow to this Penn State offense, which will be much more vanilla and easier to defend without him.

I expect both defenses to have their way in this one.  Penn State is allowing 7.3 points per game, 201 yards per game and 3.5 yards per play this season.  Wisconsin is allowing 20.0 points per game, 289.3 yards per game and 4.7 per play this season.  And Wisconsin held Notre Dame to 350 total yards in the opener to show how good its defense can be.

Neither offense is in a hurry.  Penn State ranks 104th in tempo snapping the ball every 28.6 seconds.  Wisconsin ranks 102nd snapping the ball every 28.4 seconds.  This game will featured fewer possessions, and thus fewer opportunities for points.  The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 41, 26 and 32 combined points.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Houston/Georgia Southern UNDER 57

Clay Helton is known as an offensive coach and that reputation has these Georgia Southern totals inflated dating back to last season.  Georgia Southern is now 7-2 UNDER in its last nine games overall finishing with 55 or fewer combined points in five of its last six.

Georgia Southern returned 6 starters on defense but zero starters on offense this season.  This will be Helton's best defense yet with seven of the top 13 tacklers back.  But this could be his worst offense.  Max Johnson never made it as a college QB and now he has found his way to Georgia Southern.  They have to replace a 1,000-yard rusher and a 1,000-yard receiver, plus QB JC French who transferred to Cincinnati, and all five offensive linemen.

Georgia Southern opened with a 31-0 shutout win over Charleston Southern.  The Eagles followed it up with an impressive 22-7 loss to Clemson, holding the Tigers to just 347 total yards.  And last week they held a high-powered Jacksonville State offense to just 302 total yards.  This defense is legit.

But Max Johnson and this Georgia Southern offense have been underwhelming.  Johnson is completing 65.5% of his passes with a 2-to-1 TD/INT ratio and averaging 6.0 yards per pass attempt.  He isn't going to make the big mistake, and his conservative nature plays right into our hands here being the perfect UNDER QB.

Willie Fritz has this Houston defense playing great football since joining the Big 12. The Cougars allowed 22.9 points per game in his first season in 2024 and 22.8 points per game last season.  Despite playing two great offenses already in Texas Tech and Oregon State, the Cougars are only allowing 18.0 points per game ad 316 yards per game.

Houston features a run-heavy offense and isn't in a hurry.  The Cougars are averaging 41 rush attempts per game compared to just 29 pass attempts.  They have been in dog fights with Texas Tech and Oregon State, too.  If they get a lead they will just try to run out the clock in the 2H which will aid us in cashing this UNDER 57 ticket.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Georgia Southern +18

Georgia Southern opened with a 31-0 shutout win over Charleston Southern.  The Eagles followed it up with an impressive 22-7 loss at Clemson as 19.5-point dogs, holding the Tigers to just 347 total yards.  And last week they held a high-powered Jacksonville State offense to just 302 total yards.  This defense is legit.

Off a misleading 31-27 loss to Jacksonville State in which they outgained the Gamecocks by 67 yards, the Eagles are flying under the radar.  They already showed they could play with Clemson, and I fully expect them to give Houston a run for its money at home today.  This will be one of the best atmospheres every in Statesboro with a Power 4 opponent coming to play on their field.

I think this is a flat spot for Houston.  The Cougars just lost 28-26 to Big 12 favorite Texas Tech on the road last week.  It was a big effort, but the Cougars missed a 2-point conversion to send it into OT.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.  I don't think they will be able to get back up off the mat this week, especially in this massive sandwich spot with another Big 12 game against UCF on deck next week.  They would be more than happy just getting in and getting out with a win rather than running the score up.

I expect this to be a defensive grinder between two top-notch defenses and two underwhelming offenses.  It's also worth noting Houston head coach Willie Fritz is a former head coach at Georgia Southern.  He loves the program, and he won't want to run it up on them.  I think Fritz will be in for more of a fight than he bargained for today.  Bet Georgia Southern Saturday.

15* Utah/Iowa State Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 48

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 48 ticket between Utah and Iowa State this afternoon.  It will be a sloppy field due to rain, and there will be sustained 15 MPH winds throughout that will affect the passing and kicking games for both teams.

The Cyclones hired Jimmy Rogers from Washington State.  The Cougars ranked 125th in tempo last season as Rogers played slow to try and give his team the best chance to win knowing he was under-manned.  The result was a 9-3 UNDER record in the regular season and 49 or fewer combined points in 10 of those 12 games.

Rogers will have to do the same thing at Iowa State to try and make the Cyclones competitive.  His Washington State team had an elite defense allowing 20.2 points per game.  He brought his defensive coordinator with him that served under him at Washington State and also South Dakota State prior in Jesse Bobbit.  He also added offensive coordinator Tyler Roehl, who ran a run-heavy scheme at North Dakota State.

The Cyclones lose all 22 starters from last season as everyone transferred with Matt Campbell to Penn State.  I like some of the talent Rogers brought in defensively and he will have a good defense this season and everywhere he goes.  But the offense is a problem outside QB Jaylen Raynor, the dual-threat Arkansas State transfer.  But it's not like the Cyclones are going to crush it offensively at all this season.

Iowa State played to my expectations in Week 1 in a 38-10 win over SE Missouri State.  The offense managed just 303 total yards including 108 rushing on 3.5 per carry against a FCS opponent.  The defense held them to 209 total yards, including 67 rushing and 1.5 per carry.  That game finished UNDER the 52.5-point total and shouldn't have even been that close given the stats.

Iowa State came back in Week 2 with a 16-13 loss at Iowa and just 29 combined points with a 42.5-point total for yet another UNDER.  The Cyclones were held to 255 total yards, but they showed their defensive chops by holding the Hawkeyes to 284 total yards and 4.8 per play.

I think last week's 55-7 win over Bowling Green has this total inflated.  Bowling Green may be the worst defense in the country after giving up 56 points to Nebraska the week prior.  Even this poor Iowa State offense had its way, while also being aided by a 100-yard kickoff return TD, a 66-yard punt return TD and several other plays that set up Iowa State with easy scoring opportunities.  That will not happen against Utah.

The Utes lost all five starting offensive linemen and several playmakers from last year's team.  But they have an elite defense as they always do, allowing just 8.0 points per game, 239.3 yards per game and 3.8 yards per play this season.  Their offensive numbers are inflated due to an easy strength of schedule with games against Idaho, Arkansas and Utah State.  Iowa State will offer much more resistance defensively than those three teams did.

Rogers has Iowa State playing slow just like he did at Washington State.  The Cyclones rank 134th out of 138 teams in tempo, snapping the ball every 32.1 seconds.  Utah is in no hurry either, ranking 82nd at 27.5 seconds between snaps.  Both offenses are run-heavy with questionable QB play in the passing game and lack of talent at receiver.  This will be the ultimate grinder and easily stay UNDER this 48-point total, especially with the forecast.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida -3

The No. 21 Florida Gators are favored over the No. 4 Ole Miss Rebels today for good reason.  The Gators are a legit SEC title contender this season that everyone is sleeping on.  The Rebels are overvalued after making college football playoff semifinals last season and beating LSU last week.

And that's the key here.  This is a massive letdown spot for Ole Miss off one of the biggest wins in program history over former head coach Lane Kiffin and the Tigers.  After such an emotional 32-24 win, the Rebels will be flat as a pancake this week.  They can afford a loss now after important, narrow wins over Louisville and LSU to start the season.

Florida is 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS this season with a 66-21 win over FAU as 25.5-point favorites, a 52-3 win over Campbell as 50.5-point favorites and an impressive 44-39 win at Auburn as 2.5-point favorites.  Keep in mind Florida had a 475-220 edge in total yards over Auburn last week midway through the 4th quarter before Auburn padded its stats in garbage time with two late TD's in the final 6 minutes.  Florida really dominated that game.

Florida offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner is one of the best in the country and he is proving it.  Coming over from Georgia Tech and bringing QB Aaron Philo with him, Faulkner has the Gators scoring 54.0 points per game, averaging 544.3 yards per game and 8.0 yards per play.  The playmakers are elite for Philo at receiver, and they may have the best RB in the country in Jaden Baugh, who has rushed for 458 yards and 8 TD thus far.

No question Trinidad Chambliss and this Ole Miss offense are great as well.  But this offense took a hit with an injury to one of the best RB's in the country in Kewan Lacy against LSU.  Lacy is not expected to play today.  This Ole Miss defense is clearly vulnerable too after allowing 38 points and 469 yards to Louisville in the opener.  They only outgained Charlotte by 98 yards, and Charlotte is one of the worst teams in the country.

Florida head coach Jon Sumrall is 15-4-1 ATS in his last 20 games as a single-digit favorite.  Sumrall comes over from Tulane after taking the Green Wave to the college football playoff last year.  Tulane played Ole Miss twice last season, once in the regular season and once in the playoffs, losing both.  You can bet Sumrall wants his revenge here with elite players in the SEC that can get the job done for him.  This will be the 3rd time he has prepped for Ole Miss in the last year, so Sumrall and the Gators will have the preparation advantage.

Gainesville is back.  It's going to be a hostile atmosphere for this Top 25 matchup, and home-field advantage is worth a lot more than is being factored into this line for the Gators.  This will be the first true road game for Ole Miss and I don't expect it to go well for them.  They will be flat as a pancake today off the LSU win.  Bet Florida Saturday.

15* Iowa/Michigan Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Iowa +5.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are a sleeper to win the Big Ten this season.  They finally have a legit offense which was evidenced by putting up 507 yards on Northern Illinois in a 40-0 victory.  They led 33-0 by halftime before calling off the dogs and still put up 507 yards.

They also beat Northern Iowa 55-0 behind 640 total yards.  I know it's an FCS team, but Iowa's offense is improved and wouldn't have put up that many points and yards on NIU and Northern Iowa in the past.  I think their 16-13 win over Iowa State has them undervalued.  That rivalry game is always close, and Iowa State is better than most anticipated.

Michigan's results have been much more concerning.  They should have lost to Western Michigan, winning 13-12 as 27.5-point favorites only after the refs somehow put one second back on the clock so they got a 2nd attempt at a hail mary, which they converted.

The Wolverines then went on to beat Oklahoma 17-10.  That's an Oklahoma team that nearly lost at home to New Mexico last week in a 14-6 win.  And Michigan was outgained by 26 yards by Oklahoma.  Then last week Michigan beat UTEP 52-17.  But that was a much closer game than the final score.  Michigan only led 17-14 at halftime and had to utilize a lot of energy in the 2H to pull away.  That's a UTEP team that also lost 51-0 to Oklahoma.

Bryce Underwood is one of the most overrated QB's in the country.  He is inaccurate as a passer and more known for what he can to with his legs.  But Iowa will be prepared for it behind one of the best defenses in the country and legendary coordinator Phil Parker.  The Hawkeyes are allowing 4.3 points per game, 176.7 yards per game and 3.2 per carry.

I actually think Iowa is better on both sides of the football.  They get some key players back on offense in RB Moulton and TE Vonnahme this week from injury.  They finally have a legit NFL-caliber receiver in Tony Diaz, who has 17 receptions for 201 yards this season.  They will test Michigan physically, and I anticipate Iowa to win the battle at the line is scrimmage on both sides of the football.  I also expect them to win this game outright in a game that could easily be decided by a FG either way.  Bet Iowa Saturday.

15* Oklahoma/Georgia SEC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 44.5

Two of the best defenses in the country square off today in this SEC opener between Oklahoma and Georgia.  I expect it to be the ultimate grinder with both defenses ahead of both offenses, and that's especially the case for Oklahoma.

Oklahoma made the college football playoff last season in spite of a terrible offense with QB John Mateer.  The Sooners allowed just 15.5 points per game last season despite the brutal schedule.  With seven starters back on D this season, they are elite again allowing just 7.7 points per game, 215.3 yards per game and 3.8 per play through the first three weeks.  Last year's leading tackler Kip Lewis (76 tackles, 4 sacks) is expected to return from injury this week to give the defense a boost.

I didn't think it was possible, but this Oklahoma offense looks even more broken this season.  They lost 17-10 at Michigan for just 27 combined points.  They only beat New Mexico 14-6 at home last week for just 20 combined points.  They are without two of their most important pieces on offense in LT Michael Fasusi and WR Trell Harris.

Georgia also has some questions on offense with leading rusher Nate Frazier and arguably their most talented receiver in Isiah Canion both questionable.  I think Gunner Stockton is a better runner than thrower, and he will finally be tested after one of the easiest schedules in the country thus far against FCS Tennessee State, Western Kentucky and the worst team in the SEC in Arkansas.  Georgia has been padding its offensive stats against some awful defenses.

Georgia has an elite defense that will step its game up this week.  The Bulldogs are allowing 13.3 points per game, 211.3 yards per game and 3.3 yards per play.  This despite them pulling starters in the 2H of most of these games thus far with them already in hand, allowing opponents to put up some points and yards late with the game in hand.  No starters will be coming out for this Georgia D today, and they will shut down Oklahoma to aid us in cashing this UNDER 44.5 ticket.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Hawaii -2.5

I love the spot for Hawaii today.  The Rainbow Warriors are coming off a bye week to get healthy and put two weeks of focus into beating Wyoming.  After losses to Stanford and UNLV to open the season, they came back with a sense of urgency in a 29-19 win over New Mexico State as 7-point favorites.  That's a NMSU team that gave Florida State all they could handle on the road.  That urgency will be big this week as they step back into Mountain West play.

Wyoming is one of the worst teams in the country.  The Cowboys are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS this season.  They lost 35-13 at Colorado State in their opener, a rebuilding Rams team with a first-year head coach.  They struggle with FCS Northern Colorado in a 21-13 win as 23.5-point home favorites in Week 2.  That's a Northern Colorado team that was coming off consecutive losses to Weber State and South Dakota to open the season, and followed up the Wyoming loss with a OT win over lowly Northeastern State.

Last week, Wyoming lost 24-10 at Central Michigan in a physical game.  Central Michigan rushed 59 times for 339 yards on Wyoming.  That's a CMU team that barely beat Colgate 13-10 the previous week as 18.5-point favorites.  They also lost 38-7 to New Mexico in Week 1.  

The Cowboys are now beat up and tired defensively.  They won't have much left in the tank for Hawaii today, and they just aren't good enough to do anything about it.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Baylor -9.5

Baylor lost in OT after a hail mary on the final play of regulation by Shedeur Sanders and Colorado on the road in 2024.  Dave Aranda and his remaining players have not forgotten, and they want revenge at home this time around.  I fully expect them to win by double-digits to cover this 9.5-point spread.

Baylor has opened 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS this season despite not having starting QB DJ Lagway, a Florida transfer, for the past two games.  They only lost 17-16 to Auburn as 6.5-point dogs on a neutral in the opener.  They outgained Auburn by 47 yards to show what they are capable of.  They came back with a 44-3 win over Prairie View A&M as 37.5-point favorites and a 36-19 win over LA Tech as 19.5-point home favorites.

The Bears will get a boost this week with the return of several key players, including QB Lagway.  WR Jadon Porter, S Devin Turner and LOT Logan Moore are also supposed to return from injuries this week.  The Bears are as close to full strength as they can be going into this game.

Colorado is a mess.  The 14-13 win at Georgia Tech in the opener doesn't look as good now after Georgia Tech went on to lose 45-24 at home to Tennessee.  After winning but failing to cover at home against Weber State, Colorado just got blasted 41-7 by Northwestern last week.  There is a ton of turmoil in that Colorado locker room right now.  

Deion Sanders has kicked off multiple players for conduct detrimental to the team.  This team just isn't that good as it is, and Sanders may be losing the locker room.  The Bears don't care and will look to kick them while they are down.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Sam Houston +34.5

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are one of the most overrated teams in the country after winning the down Big 12 last season.  They lost six NFL draft picks on defense and won't be nearly as good on that side of the ball.  They lost QB Behren Morton, their top two receivers and two starters along the O-Line.

Texas Tech brought in Cincinnati transfer Brendan Sorsby to replace Morton at QB, but he got in gambling trouble and is out.  That leaves Will Hammond, who while still decent is a big downgrade at QB.  That was evident in a lackluster 33-10 win over Abilene Christian as 45.5-point favorites in the opener, failing to cover by 22.5 points.

Keep in mind Abilene Christian lost to FCS bottom feeder Lamar 21-14 prior to the Texas Tech game, and then lost 26-7 to Stephen F. Austin the game after Texas Tech.  So that really puts into perspective how poor a 33-10 win over Abilene Christian really was.

More concerning was a 35-24 win at Oregon State two weeks ago as 25.5-point favorites.  The Red Raiders were life and death with the Beavers and needed to score the final 14 points to escape with victory.  Oregon State actually outgained Texas Tech 472 to 352 for the game, or by 120 total yards.  The Red Raiders were extremely fortunate to escape with the win.

Speaking of fortunate, they escaped with another 28-26 win as 7.5-point favorites over Houston in their Big 12 opener last week.  They allowed 458 yards to Houston and were outgained by 33 yards.  Now this is a sandwich spot for the Red Raiders, who have another Big 12 game on deck next week.  They won't be preparing at all for Sam Houston State and just want to get out of here with a win.  They aren't concerned with getting margin, and I don't expect them to win by 5 TD's or more as a result.

Sam Houston State looks like one of the most improved teams in college football.  The Bearkats are 1-2 SU but 3-0 ATS covering the spread by a combined 58 points in the three games.  They lost by 3 at Troy as 16.5-point dogs, by 6 to Tulsa as 12.5-point dogs and beat Nicholls State by 59 as 21-point favorites.  Those narrow losses to Troy and Tulsa look much better now when you consider Troy nearly upset Missouri on the road lost week, and Tulsa upset Oklahoma State which upset Oregon.  The Bearkats outgained both Troy and Tulsa, too.

Sam Houston QB Landyn Locke has impressive numbers, throwing for 973 yards with a 9-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.0 per attempt.  But the improvement on defense is most noticeable.  The Bearkats are holding opponents to 15.7 points per game, 290.7 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play this season.  Locke will make enough plays to keep the Bearkats competitive, and the defense will hold this Texas Tech offense in check enough to stay within this inflated number in this clear flat spot for the Red Raiders.  Bet Sam Houston State Saturday.

20* Liberty/Coastal Carolina ESPN No-Brainer on Coastal Carolina +2.5

Wrong team favored here.  There's a reason this line hasn't gone to Liberty -3, a telling sign that the +2.5 on Coastal Carolina is the right side.  It's easy to see why when you compare how both of these teams have fared thus far.

Liberty has opened 2-1 this season.  The Flames lost 20-13 as 6-point home dogs to a rebuilding James Madison with a first-year head coach in their opener.  More concerning was the 24-23 win as 28.5-point home favorites against FCS Gardner-Webb in Week 2.  That's the same Gardner-Webb team that lost 35-17 to Austin Peay and 17-13 to Wofford in FCS play prior to that 1-point loss to Liberty.

Helping erase that stench was a 51-15 home win over Ball State last week.  But that's a Ball State team that is one of the worst in all of college football at the FBS level.  But I don't think the Flames are automatically fixed.  They were a big preseason favorite to win Conference USA last season and proceeded to go 4-8 as one of the most disappointing teams in the country.

Liberty came into this season as the favorite to win Conference USA again.  I think it's just a reflection of head coach Jamey Chadwell, one of the most overrated head coaches in the country.  Keep in mind Chadwell parlayed his success at Coastal Carolina into this job at Liberty.  And I think that's a hidden revenge angle here for Coastal Carolina wanting to put one on him for leaving them.

Another hidden angle is that new Coastal Carolina head coach Ryan Beard was at Missouri State last season.  Well, Missouri State upset Liberty 21-17 as 8-point dogs.  So he knows the Flames inside and out after facing him last year, and that will work in Beard's advantage prepping for them again here on a short week.

I'm extremely impressed with Coastal Carolina this season despite the 1-2 record.  The schedule has been tough outside of a 45-7 home win over Fordham.  But what really stands out is just how competitive the Chanticleers were in road losses to Delaware and West Virginia.

The Chanticleers only lost 31-24 as 21-point underdogs at West Virginia.  They actually outgained the Mountaineers by 12 yards and 1.1 yards per play in that game.  That's the same WVU team that just upset Virginia last week as double-digit dogs.  Coastal Carolina lost 22-14 at Delaware as 5.5-point dogs last week.  They were only outgained by 10 yards and the YPP was dead even.  That's a veteran Delaware team that just took SEC foe Vanderbilt to the wire in a 35-26 road loss as 21.5-point dogs the week prior.

I love Coastal Carolina QB Deuce Bailey who has a 8-to-0 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.4 yards per attempt despite the tough schedule.  He has also rushed for 82 yards this season to provide a dual threat.  I hate Liberty QB Deshawn Purdue, who has a 56.3% completion percentage and only 14 rushing yards on 19 carries despite the easy schedule.  He is inaccurate and not a dual-threat.

Coastal Carolina has one of the best home atmospheres in the country for all Group of 6 teams.  This will be an electric atmosphere for a Thursday night home game.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Coastal Carolina Thursday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Michigan State/Notre Dame UNDER 52.5

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this UNDER 52.5 ticket between Michigan State and Notre Dame.  There is a 90% chance of rain throughout the entirety of the game Saturday night.  I expect a sloppy, ugly, low-scoring game as a result.

Notre Dame had one of the most misleading wins of Week 1.  The Fighting Irish beat Wisconsin 41-13 despite only outgaining them by 66 yards.  They benefited from being +2 in turnovers as Wisconsin gifted them two touchdowns.  And that's a Wisconsin team that isn't very good and one that was banged up coming into the game.

What stood out most from the Wisconsin game is just that lack of playmakers on offense.  The Fighting Irish managed just 350 total yards and 5.7 per play against Wisconsin.  The losses of two first-round draft picks at RB really showed as new RB Aneyas Williams isn't nearly as explosive.  He's more of a grinder who churns out the tough yards but can't break the big run like Love and Price could.

I like QB CJ Carr, but he just doesn't have much talent to work with at receiver, either.  Carr went 19-of-29 passing for 239 yards and 2 TD in the win.  Jordan Faison had 4 receptions for 81 yards and is really their only proven playmaker.  The rest of the faces are new at receiver and TE and it showed.

Notre Dame was gifted a couple more TD's against Rice in a 52-0 victory in Week 2.  Rice lost four fumbles in the game, including a 24-yard fumble return TD on the first play from scrimmage.  The other three fumbles helped set up easy scores, too.  But Notre Dame held Rice to 128 total yards and 2.8 per play.

Without question, Notre Dame has one of the best defenses in the country.  The Fighting Irish returned nine starters on defense this season which is unheard of for a program of their caliber.  They allowed 17.6 points per game last season and will be even better this season.  They allowed 15 points per game the two previous seasons under Marcus Freeman.

Pat Fitzgerald was known for overachieving at Northwestern with elite defenses and ball control offenses.  He hasn't changed, and he will do the same at Michigan State to try and make them competitive.  So far so good as the Spartans are off to a 2-0 start with a 30-20 win over Toledo and a 35-7 win over Eastern Michigan.  The defense held up allowing 273 yards to Toledo and 219 to EMU.

Notre Dame ranks 116th out of 138 teams in tempo snapping the ball every 30.2 seconds.  Michigan State ranks 95th snapping the ball every 28.2 seconds.  This will be a defensive battle that stays UNDER this inflated 52.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Michigan State/Notre Dame NBC No-Brainer on Michigan State +30.5

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this +30.5 ticket on Michigan State..  There is a 90% chance of rain throughout the entirety of the game Saturday night.  I expect a sloppy, ugly, low-scoring game as a result, which really favors the big underdog.

Notre Dame had one of the most misleading wins of Week 1.  The Fighting Irish beat Wisconsin 41-13 despite only outgaining them by 66 yards.  They benefited from being +2 in turnovers as Wisconsin gifted them two touchdowns.  And that's a Wisconsin team that isn't very good and one that was banged up coming into the game.

What stood out most from the Wisconsin game is just that lack of playmakers on offense.  The Fighting Irish managed just 350 total yards and 5.7 per play against Wisconsin.  The losses of two first-round draft picks at RB really showed as new RB Aneyas Williams isn't nearly as explosive.  He's more of a grinder who churns out the tough yards but can't break the big run like Love and Price could.

I like QB CJ Carr, but he just doesn't have much talent to work with at receiver, either.  Carr went 19-of-29 passing for 239 yards and 2 TD in the win.  Jordan Faison had 4 receptions for 81 yards and is really their only proven playmaker.  The rest of the faces are new at receiver and TE and it showed.

Notre Dame was gifted a couple more TD's against Rice in a 52-0 victory in Week 2 as 44.5-point favorites.  Rice lost four fumbles in the game, including a 24-yard fumble return TD on the first play from scrimmage.  The other three fumbles helped set up easy scores, too.

Most alarming is the fact that Notre Dame just cannot run the ball even against Wisconsin and Rice.  The Fighting Irish are averaging just 114.5 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry through two games.  They're going to need to run the ball in these likely sloppy conditions.  I think the fact that Notre Dame won and covered its first two games with misleading finals gives us a few extra points of value here on Michigan State.

Pat Fitzgerald was known for overachieving at Northwestern with elite defenses and ball control offenses.  He hasn't changed, and he will do the same at Michigan State to try and make them competitive.  So far so good as the Spartans are off to a 2-0 start with a 30-20 win over Toledo and a 35-7 win over Eastern Michigan.  The defense held up allowing 273 yards to Toledo and 219 to EMU.

Michigan State has been strong at the line of scrimmage which is a staple of Fitzgerald teams.  They are rushing for 204 yards per game and allowing just 89 rushing yards per game.  QB Alessio Milivojevic got his feet wet last season and has benefited from those extra reps.  He is completing 70.4% of his passes with a 3-to-0 TD/INT ratio thus far.

Fitzgerald won as a player at Notre Dame in 1995 as 28-point underdogs and as a coach in 2014 as 17-point dogs.  He is rarely this big of an underdog as a head coach.  In fact, this is the biggest spread in the 80-year history of the rivalry between MSU and ND.  It's simply too many points.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

20* BYU/Colorado State CBS No-Brainer on Colorado State +18

Jim Mora is one of the better head coaches in the country.  He took UConn to three bowls in four years after just one bowl appearance in the previous 11 seasons combined for the program.  He brought several UConn transfers with him and had his choice of what job he wanted, and he chose Colorado State for a reason.

Mora has the Rams off and running opening 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS while covering the spread by a combined 35.5 points.  They beat Wyoming 35-13 as 3-point favorites while outgaining them by 123 yards.  They beat Southern Utah 58-24 as 19.5-point favorites while outgaining them by 236 yards.

I like Oklahoma State transfer Hauss Hejny at QB.  He was one of the top recruits in the country coming out of HS.  Hejny is a dual-threat, throwing for 539 yards with a 9-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 124 yards anda. score while averaging 10.3 per carry.  The defense should be pretty good with six starts between transfers and returnees.

BYU is getting a lot of respect early in the season after making the Big 12 Championship Game last season.  The Cougars had a ton of breaks go their way in close games and I think they are overrated as a result.  They went 8-1 in Big 12 play despite only outgaining Big 12 opponents by 37 yards per game.  They were 4-0 in games decided by a TD or less.  When they really stepped up in class with their two meetings with Texas Tech, they lost by 22 and 27 points.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Cougars now after opening 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS this season to improved to 12-4 ATS since the start of last season.  They beat Utah Tech 63-7 before beating Arizona 28-17 at home.  Arizona's best receiver was lost for the game in the 1st quarter and their offense wasn't the same after.  Yet another break for BYU.

But now the Cougars in in a sandwich spot and playing their first true road game this season.  They are coming off the big win over Arizona, and they have a road game against TCU on deck in Big 12 play.  Teams tend to have letdowns when they step out of conference in between conference games.  And this will be a great atmosphere for a Saturday night home game in Fort Collins for the Rams.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on BYU/Colorado State UNDER 52.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 52.5 ticket between BYU and Colorado State tonight.  There is a 60% chance of rain at the start of the game which will make the field sloppy.  It will be tough sledding for both offenses, and this total of 52.5 is too high tonight as a result.

BYU is a dead nuts UNDER team with a heavy dose of rushing and an elite defense.  The Cougars went 12-2 last season led by a defense that allowed just 19.1 points per game, and a rushing attack that produced 178 rushing yards per game.  Seven starters are back on defense as this is one of the best defenses in the country.  Dual-threat QB Bear Bachmeir is back as well after rushing for 527 yards last season.

BYU ranked 123rd out of 136 teams in tempo last season snapping the ball every 28.8 seconds.  They haven't been much faster this season, snapping the ball every 27.7 seconds.  They have been impressive defensively thus far holding Utah Tech to 7 points and 184 yards and Arizona to 17 points and 327 yards.  They have 76 rush attempts compared to just 48 pass attempts through two games.

Colorado State has a dual-threat QB as well and wants to run the ball this season.  They are rushing for 225 yards per game in consecutive wins over Wyoming and Southern Utah.  Their offense will certainly face more resistance against BYU, and a Colorado State defense that is loaded with solid transfer starters should be able to hold up against this mediocre Cougars offense.  Jim Mora brought several UConn transfers with him especially on defense, so they are used to the scheme.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* New Mexico/Oklahoma ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on New Mexico +22

Jason Eck is flying under the radar as one of the best coaches in the country.  New Mexico hadn't been to a bowl game since 2016 when he took over last year.  He promptly led the Lobos to a 9-4 season despite just seven returning starters.  The four losses came to Michigan by 17, SJSU by 7, Boise State by 16 and Minnesota by 3 to prove they can hang with the big boys.

Eck brought back 11 starters this season including his son in LB Jaxton Eck, who was first-team All-Mountain West last year with 129 tackles.  Five of the top seven tacklers are back on defense.  I know they lost QB Jack Layne to a season-ending injury, but backup Luke Moga is a very talented Oregon transfer and is making the most of his opportunity.

New Mexico is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS this season.  The Lobos blasted Central Michigan 38-7 as 10.5-point favorites and Mercyhurt 70-7 as 42.5-point favorites.  The defense has been elite, holding CMU to 149 yards and 3.1 per play and Mercyhurt to 155 yards and 2.8 per play.  Moga is completing 65.4% of his passes with a 3-to-0 TD/INT ratio, and Scottre Humphrey has rushed for 174 yards and 3 TD.

Oklahoma has the same problems as last year.  The Sooners have an elite defense but a terrible offense.  Their 51-0 win over UTEP was misleading because UTEP missed three field goals, and Oklahoma scored 51 despite just 401 total yards.  The Sooners were exposed last week in a 17-10 loss at Michigan as 5.5-point favorites.

QB John Mateer is simply inaccurate.  He is completing just 56% of his passes through two games, and he hasn't been much of a dual-threat either with just 52 rushing yards on 16 carries and 3.3 per carry.  It has been alarming that Oklahoma cannot run the football with any consistency, either.  They are rushing for 135 yards per game and 4.0 per carry.  They just don't have the offense to cover these big numbers.

Oklahoma ranks 84th in tempo snapping the ball every 27.7 seconds.  What helps make New Mexico competitive the last two seasons is slowing the game down and limiting possessions.  The Lobos rank 125th in tempo this season snapping the ball every 31.7 seconds.  They will try to shorten this game as well.

This is the ultimate sandwich spot for Oklahoma.  After the big road game at Michigan last week, the Sooners now have two bigger games on deck the next two weeks against Georgia and Texas.  They will be concerned with getting players healthy going into those two brutal SEC games.  They'll be without their best WR in Trell Harris (6 receptions, 104 yards, 1 TD) and their best LB in Kip Lewis, who led the team in tackles last season.  Starting LT Michael Fasusi is out as well.  Bet New Mexico Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte +18

Tim Albin took Ohio to three straight 10-win seasons and its first MAC title since 1968 before taking the job at Charlotte last season.  The cupboard was bare as Charlotte replaced almost everyone.  Now Albin has more of the players he wants in place in Year 2, and the 49ers should be one of the most improved teams in the country after a disastrous 1-11 campaign last season that has them undervalued this season.

Yes, Charlotte lost outright 43-41 (OT) to FCS opponent The Citadel in the opener, but that misleading result will provide us line value o the 49ers moving forward.  Charlotte outgained The Citadel 538 to 400 for the game, or by 138 total yards.  And I really liked what I saw from the new pieces on offense.

Charlotte QB Cole Gonzales went 28-of-41 passing for 322 yards and 3 TD against The Citadel.  He transferred in from Western Carolina after throwing for 6,682 yards and 52 TD the past two seasons there.  App State transfer Khamani Alexander rushed for 138 yards on 14 carries.  Another App State transfer in Jaden Barnes had 7 receptions for 93 yards, while returnee Jaylen Hampton had 8 receptions for 117 yards and 2 TD.

I took advantage of the value last week and backed Charlotte +47.5 against Ole Miss.  The Rebels didn't even score 48 points, beating Charlotte 41-9 as the cover was never in question.  Ole Miss only outgained Charlotte by 98 yards as it was much closer than the final score would suggest.  Charlotte put up 322 yards on this Ole Miss defense.

It's time to 'sell high' on Appalachian State this week.  The Mountaineers are off to a 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start this season.  They beat Maine 55-3 as 20.5-point favorites before upsetting East Carolina 27-24 as 6.5-point road dogs.  Maine is a terrible FCS team, and ECU is a rebuilding team that lost almost everyone from last year.  And they were outgained by ECU by 21 yards.

There's not a lot to like about this rebuilding App State team, either.  The Mountaineers only brought back four starters this season and only added one previous starter in the transfer portal.  It's a bad spot for the Mountaineers too with NC State on deck, a huge game against a Power 4 opponent they could easily be looking ahead to.  Either way, I don't think they should be favored by more than two touchdowns against this improved 49ers team.  Bet Charlotte Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on UTEP +36

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UTEP +36 ticket against Michigan today.  Temps will be in the 60's with a good chance of rain throughout the game and double-digit winds as well.  These are two offenses I'm not fond of, and two underrated defenses.  I look for it to be a low-scoring, defensive battle which favors the big underdog catching points.

The Wolverines beat Western Michigan 13-12 as 27.5-point favorites in Week 1.  They got a great break with one second being put back on the clock to allow them to convert a hail mary on the final play.  They beat Oklahoma 17-10 as 5.5-point dogs last week.  And after that big effort, they have their Big 12 opener against Iowa on deck, making this the ultimate sandwich spot.  They just want to get in and get out with a win.  They won't be concerned with running the score up.

This Michigan offense looks broken behind one of the most overrated QB's in the country in Bryce Underwood, who just struggles to complete forward passes.  Michigan was held to 276 yards by Western Michigan and 263 yards by Oklahoma.  Underwood is completing just 53.8% of his passes, and he is being used a lot more in the running game now because the passing offense is broken.  I think Michigan will be even more predictable this week not wanting to get Underwood hurt thus not running him as much, which will limit the offense even more.

UTEP lost 51-0 to Oklahoma and beat Texas Southern 51-10.  What stood out was UTEP held Oklahoma to 401 total yards in a very misleading final.  They also missed three field goals in that game, so they moved the ball but couldn't capitalize.  They held Texas Southern to 211 yards.  This defense looks greatly improved this season, holding its first two opponents to 141 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry.  I think they can hold up against Michigan's subpar rushing attack that is averaging just 3.9 yards per carry this season.

UTEP is playing much slower this season ranking 112th out of 138 teams in tempo snapping the ball every 29.5 seconds.  Michigan is playing slow, too, ranking 110th in tempo at 29.3 seconds per offensive snap.  There will be fewer possessions in this game and fewer opportunities for the Wolverines to pull away as a result.  Look for Michigan to get a lead and salt the clock away in the 2H to keep the Miners within the number.  Bet UTEP Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UTEP/Michigan UNDER 49.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 49.5 ticket between UTEP and Michigan today.  Temps will be in the 60's with a good chance of rain throughout the game and double-digit winds as well.  These are two offenses I'm not fond of, and two underrated defenses.

Michigan is 2-0 UNDER in two games and both flew under the total.  The Wolverines beat Western Michigan 13-12 for 25 combined points only after getting a great break with one second being put back on the clock to allow them to convert a hail mary on the final play.  They beat Oklahoma 17-10 for 27 combined points last week.

This Michigan defense held WMU to 221 yards and 3.3 per play.  They held Oklahoma to 289 yards and 4.7 per play.  But their own offense looks broken behind one of the most overrated QB's in the country in Bryce Underwood, who just struggles to complete forward passes.  Michigan was held to 276 yards by Western Michigan and 263 yards by Oklahoma.  Underwood is completing just 53.8% of his passes.

UTEP lost 51-0 to Oklahoma and beat Texas Southern 51-10.  What stood out was UTEP held Oklahoma to 401 total yards in a very misleading final.  They held Texas Southern to 211 yards.  This defense looks greatly improved this season, holding its first two opponents to 141 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry.

UTEP is playing much slower this season ranking 112th out of 138 teams in tempo snapping the ball every 29.5 seconds.  Michigan is playing slow, too, ranking 110th in tempo at 29.3 seconds per offensive snap.  Look for Michigan to get a lead and salt the clock away in the 2H to keep this thing UNDER the total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Wyoming/Central Michigan UNDER 39

This is one of the lowest totals on the board this week but it's not low enough.  The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 39 ticket between Wyoming and Central Michigan today.  Temps will be in the 50's with a 50% chance of rain throughout.  These are two of the slowest, most run-heavy offenses in college football that will also aid us in cashing this UNDER 39 ticket.

Central Michigan ranked 134th out of 136 teams in tempo last season snapping the ball every 30.8 seconds.  Central Michigan enters Year 2 under Matt Drinkall who guided Army to the Joe Moore Award as the nation's best offensive line as the O-Line coach there.  He believes in running the football with a Power Spread offense that takes advantage of a QB's running ability.  The Chippewas are the rare team that still uses a fullback, which alone screams dead nuts UNDER team.

The Chippewas were indeed an UNDER team last season scoring just 22.5 points per game on offense and allowing just 23.5 points per game on defense.  They did a great job of shortening games to stay competitive and were rewarded with a trip to a bowl game in Drinkall's first season.  It's not a fun brand to play, but it is a way to be competitive.

The offense will struggle again this season with the losses of their top three receivers and their top two RB's.  The defense should be solid again with several quality transfers brought in by Drinkall and he will have his players in place now.

Central Michigan lost 38-7 to New Mexico in the opener. The offense was held to 149 yards and 3.1 per play.  The defense played better than the score showed holding the Lobos to 364 yards.  The Chippewas went on to beat lowly Colgate 13-10 for just 23 combined points. They managed just 276 yards on offense while holding Colgate to 219 yards on defense.  The only reason they are 68th in tempo this season is because they had to speed it up playing from behind against New Mexico.

Speaking of woeful offenses, Wyoming lost 35-13 to Colorado State in the opener and was held to 273 yards.  Wyoming went on to a 21-13 win over FCS Northern Colorado, getting held to 304 yards.  Wyoming ranks 129th out of 138 teams this season in tempo snapping the ball every 33.5 seconds.

Wyoming has 68 rush attempts compared to 45 pass attempts this season.  Central Michigan has 72 rush attempts compared to 37 pass attempts.  The clock will keep moving, the defenses will hold the offenses in check, and the weather will help keep this UNDER the 39-point total today.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Georgia -24.5

The Georgia Bulldogs are a wagon this season and a legit national title contender.  They brought back 12 starters from last season and added as much talent as anyone.  They are off to a 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start this season taking no mercy.  They beat Tennessee State 63-3 and Western Kentucky 70-20.

Now they will take no mercy on Arkansas.  The Razorbacks are the worst team in the SEC this season.  They have a first-year head coach in Ryan Silverfield, who will now pay for making jokes about Georgia while at Memphis last season, criticizing their off-field speedings and arrest issues.

Arkansas beat North Alabama 31-14 as 40.5-point favorites in the opener, failing to cover by 23.5 points.  North Alabama went on to lose to SE Alabama 30-25.  Arkansas then lost 43-10 as 12.5-point dogs at Utah, failing to cover by 20.5 points.  The books just can't catch up to how bad this team is, and they haven't caught up this week, either.

QB KJ Jackson has been terrible completing just 55.1% of his passes with a 3-to-2 TD/INT ratio while averaging 5.9 per attempts.  He isn't much of a dual-threat either with 3.6 yards per carry.  Top RB's Russell (2.8 YPC) and Smith (2.2 YPC) can't get anything going on the ground to help him out.  And keep in mind these numbers include a game against North Alabama.  Bet Georgia Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Bowling Green/Iowa State UNDER 44.5

The Cyclones hired Jimmy Rogers from Washington State.  The Cougars ranked 125th in tempo last season as Rogers played slow to try and give his team the best chance to win knowing he was under-manned.  The result was a 9-3 UNDER record in the regular season and 49 or fewer combined points in 10 of those 12 games.

Rogers will have to do the same thing at Iowa State to try and make the Cyclones competitive.  His Washington State team had an elite defense allowing 20.2 points per game.  He brought his defensive coordinator with him that served under him at Washington State and also South Dakota State prior in Jesse Bobbit.  He also added offensive coordinator Tyler Roehl, who ran a run-heavy scheme at North Dakota State.

The Cyclones lose all 22 starters from last season as everyone transferred with Matt Campbell to Penn State.  I like some of the talent Rogers brought in defensively and he will have a good defense this season and everywhere he goes.  But the offense is a problem outside QB Jaylen Raynor, the dual-threat Arkansas State transfer.  But it's not like the Cyclones are going to crush it offensively at all this season.

Iowa State played to my expectations in Week 1 in a 38-10 win over SE Missouri State.  The offense managed just 303 total yards including 108 rushing on 3.5 per carry against a FCS opponent.  The defense held them to 209 total yards, including 67 rushing and 1.5 per carry.  That game finished UNDER the 52.5-point total and shouldn't have even been that close given the stats.

Iowa State came back last week with a 16-13 loss at Iowa and just 29 combined points with a 42.5-point total for yet another UNDER.  The Cyclones were held to 255 total yards, but they showed their defensive chops by holding the Hawkeyes to 284 total yards and 4.8 per play.

Now Iowa State plays a Bowling Green team with one of the worst offenses in the country.  The Falcons lost 20-13 to FCS Tarleton State in the opener.  They lost 56-7 to Nebraska last week and were held to 169 yards and 3.5 per play.  That's an elite Nebraska offense that has lit up its first two opponents.  Bowling Green won't have to face anything like that this week.

Both teams play at a snail's pace which will aid us here.  Iowa State ranks 133rd out of 138 teams in seconds per play (34.3), while Bowling Green ranks 131st at 34 seconds per play.  The forecast could also come into play with a good chance of rain throughout the game and 10 MPH winds.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Houston/Texas Tech FOX No-Brainer on Houston +7.5

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are one of the most overrated teams in the country after winning the down Big 12 last season.  They lost six NFL draft picks on defense and won't be nearly as good on that side of the ball.  They lost QB Behren Morton, their top two receivers and two starters along the O-Line.

Texas Tech brought in Cincinnati transfer Brendan Sorsby to replace Morton at QB, but he got in gambling trouble and is out.  That leaves Will Hammond, who while still decent is a big downgrade at QB.  That was evident in a lackluster 33-10 win over Abiline Christian as 45.5-point favorites in the opener, failing to cover by 22.5 points.

Keep in mind Abilene Christian lost to FCS bottom feeder Lamar 21-14 prior to the Texas Tech game, and then lost 26-7 to Stephen F. Austin the game after Texas Tech last week.  So that really puts into perspective how poor a 33-10 win over Abilene Christian really was.

More concerning was a 35-24 win at Oregon State last week as 25.5-point favorites.  The Red Raiders were life and death with the Beavers and needed to score the final 14 points to escape with victory.  Oregon State actually outgained Texas Tech 472 to 352 for the game, or by 120 total yards.  The Red Raiders were extremely fortunate to escape with the win.

It's rare we get the opportunity to compare common opponents this early in the season, but we have that luxury here.  Houston beat Oregon State 33-20 as 20.5-point home favorites in the opener.  But the stats show Houston was pretty dominant in that game outgaining Oregon State 533 to 402, or by 131 total yards.  So Texas Tech was outgained by 120 yards by Oregon State while Houston outgained the Beavers by 131 yards.

It's easy to see why Houston is actually the better team this season.  The Cougars are one of the most experienced teams in the country.  They returned 11 starters and added another 8 starters in the transfer portal, giving them 19 starters in all.  Senior QB Conner Weigman is the big returnee.  He completed 65.1% of his passes for 2,705 yards with a 25-to-9 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 700 yards and 11 scores last season.

Weigman also has his top receiver in Amare Thomas back after 67 receptions for 966 yards and 12 TD last season.  The offensive line is loaded with two returning starters plus the additions of a 1st-team All-MAC transfer from Toledo, a first-team All-AAC transfer from Tulane and a Miami Ohio transfer.  Houston allowed 22.9 points per game in 2024 and 22.8 points per game in 2025 in Willie Fritz's first two years on the job.  He always has an elite defense, and that is no different this year.

This will be a short week for both teams which really favors Houston.  While Texas Tech was life and death on the road at Oregon State last week, Houston was crushing Southern 77-6.  The Cougars were able to rest their starters in the 2H and their defense was only on the field for 42 plays.  They basically had a bye week and will be fresh for this game.

Another factor is that it is expected to be windy Friday night with 10-15 MPH winds blowing across the field.  I think the team that runs the football better will have that advantage, and that will clearly be Houston.  Texas Tech shockingly is averaging just 164 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry despite the soft schedule.  Houston is averaging 308 rushing yards per game and 7.2 per carry with a similar schedule.  

The Cougars rushed for 228 yards on Oregon State while the Red Raiders rushed for 155 yards on the Beavers on 5 more attempts than Houston to compare.  The Cougars are only allowing 10 rushing yards per game and 0.4 per carry this season which ranks 1st in the country in both categories.  Bet Houston Friday.

20* Syracuse/Pitt ESPN No-Brainer on Syracuse +10.5

Syracuse is coming off one of the most misleading finals of the season.  The Orange lost 21-18 at home as 3.5-point favorites to Cal.  They lost despite outgaining Cal 436 to 249, or by 187 total yards.  They missed two field goals and settled for two more field goals in the red zone.

But the biggest difference was being -3 in turnovers, including a pick-6 in the 4th quarter that gave Cal its first lead of the game.  The Orange also had 15 penalties for 132 yards against Cal.  They have had two punt return TD's called back by penalties this season.  That misleading final has provided us value to back the Orange as double-digit underdogs to Pitt this week.

Syracuse has a bye on deck next week, so it will be 'all in' this week to try and get a victory knowing it has two weeks off after this.  The Orange beat New Hampshire 66-3 in the opener so should still be pretty fresh even on a short week.

I love Syracuse QB Steve Angeli, who returned from injury this season.  He was leading the FBS in passing yards last season before going out with injury n his 4th start against Clemson.  Angeli threw for 1,317 yards with a 10-to-2 TD/INT ratio in his first four starts leading the Orange to a 3-1 record against a brutal schedule.  They beat UConn and upset Clemson as 17-point road dogs.  Their lone loss came to Tennessee on a neutral.

Their season was wrecked after the Angeli injury as the Orange went 0-8 in their final eight games as Rickie Collins was a big downgrade from Angeli at QB.  Keep in mind Fran Brown led Syracuse to a 10-3 season in his first year with a healthy Kyle McCord at QB all season.  Brown knows how to coach up a defense and has six of his top seven tacklers back this season.  The Orange are allowing just 204 yards per game and 3.4 yards per play through two games this season.  Cal has an explosive offense this season so to hold the Golden Bears to just 249 total yards is no small feat.

Pitt is getting too much credit for its 59-14 win over Miami Ohio in the opener.  More concerning was the 12-7 win over UCF last week as 7-point home favorites.  The Panthers only averaged 4.4 yards per play on offense against UCF.  They have a quality defense, but I think their offense is over-hyped.

Some weather is expected in this game so Pitt won't be able to throw it all over the yard.  There's a 60-70% chance of rain in this one.  Pitt's weakness is running the ball, averaging just 134.5 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry despite the weak schedule thus far.  Syracuse is averaging 178 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  Syracuse is also stopping the run allowing 63.5 rushing yards per game and 2.1 per carry thus far.

Even a poor Syracuse team last year with Rickie Collins at QB played Pitt tough.  Syracuse was only outgained by 43 yards by Pitt in a misleading 30-13 loss.  Pitt benefited from a 66-yards punt return TD and 3 INT from Collins.  Syracuse really shut down QB Mason Heintschel even in perfect conditions in the dome.  Heintschel only threw for 143 yards and one INT without a TD.  I think they can hold this Pitt offense in check in the weather and stay within single-digits if not pull off the outright upset in the rematch.  Bet Syracuse Thursday.

15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on NDSU/Air Force UNDER 47.5

The clock is going to be constantly running in this matchup between two teams who are run-heavy on offense.  Air Force runs the triple-option so that's self-explanatory, and NDSU has always been a run-heavy program.

NDSU beat Jacksonville State 33-7 in the opener with 44 rush attempts and Fordham 38-0 last week with 43 rush attempts.  It's clear the Bison have an elite defense again.  They have allowed just 52 rushing yards per game and 1.8 yards per carry through two games.  They will be able to hold up against Air Force's triple-option.

I think the Falcons will have one of the most improved defenses in the country this season.  They return eight starters and should get back to being the type of unit that allowed fewer than 20 points per game in five consecutive seasons from 2019-23.  Last season was the aberration, not the norm for this Troy Calhoun defense.

Air Force beat Duquesne 34-0 in the opener behind 71 rush attempts.  The defense held Duquesne to 107 total yards and 2.4 yards per play.  These Air Force totals are inflated early in the season because they played in so many shootouts last year with a poor defense.  We'll take advantage and back the UNDER 47.5 here.  There will also be double-digit winds blowing across the field in this game that will affect passing and kicking games for both teams and help keep it UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Ohio State/Texas ABC No-Brainer on Texas ML -118

Texas will be out for revenge on Ohio State Saturday.  The Buckeyes knocked them out of the playoffs in 2024 as Ohio State went on to win the national title.  They also won 14-7 at home in the season opener in 2025.  It was one of the most misleading finals of the season.

Texas outgained Ohio State 336-203 in that 14-7 defeat, or by 133 total yards.  And that was on the road in the Horseshoe.  Arch Manning improved by leaps and bounds after that game and finished the season playing up to his potential.  He is primed for a big season and is among the Heisman Trophy favorites for good reason.

Now Texas gets Ohio State at home at night in Austin in what will be one of the best home atmospheres of all-time, which is saying something for a program this rich in tradition.  Texas has never been better prepared to beat Ohio State than it is for the season opener this season, spending all offseason thinking about revenge and working even harder to get it.

"The biggest common thread in both games was we essentially played behind," Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said Monday about the last two meetings with Ohio State. "And that's an uncomfortable feeling when you feel like you're having to play catch-up. You have to take a few more risks."

"It's not all the time you get a second chance to play another team after a rough loss," Manning said Monday. "We're all excited for the opportunity. I think we've all grown mentally and physically."

Texas blasted Texas State 59-7 in the opener as 29.5point favorites.  That's a Texas State team that is one of the best Group of 6 teams in all of college football and brought a lot back from last season, especially offensively.  To hold that offense to just 7 points is a sign of things to come for this elite Texas defense.

Ohio State beat Ball State 56-3 as 49.5-point favorites in its opener.  The Buckeyes tacked on a late TD to try and cover the spread late.  That's a Ball State team that is one of the worst in the entire country and offered nothing offensively.  I would not be surprised of Ball State proves to be the worst team in the MAC by season's end.

Ohio State has a solid offense but it's worth noting it lost coordinator Brian Hartline to South Florida.  There will be some growing pains early with new coordinator Arthur Smith.  The bigger concern is a defense that lost 7 NFL draft picks including 3 first-round picks.  Only four starters are back and they lose each of their top five tacklers.  They will get tested in a big way this week by Manning and arguably the most talented group of receivers in the country.  Plus RB Hollywood Smothers, a NC State transfer, is absolutely electric and gives them a viable rushing attack.  Bet Texas on the Money Line Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte +47.5

While I like Charlotte this season, this more of a early season fade against Ole Miss after making the semifinals of the college football playoff last season.  Nobody expected Pete Golding to be able to take the Rebels on a deep run after Lane Kiffin left for LSU.  But the Rebels played with a chip on their shoulder and were able to retain their coordinators for the playoff run to keep continuity.

That continuity is gone now with a new offensive coordinator in John David Baker and a new defensive coordinator in Bryan Brown.  The Rebels will be fine offensively with QB Trinidad Chambliss and RB Kewan Lacy back, but they won't match last year's numbers.  They lose their top two receivers and their starting RT and LT, so they could have problems keeping Chambliss protected this season.

The Rebels lose 11 of their top 15 tacklers from last season defensively.  While there is a lot of talent here from the transfer portal, I can't see Ole Miss being as dominant as they have been defensively the past couple seasons.  Expectations were high after a playoff run, but I'll gladly 'sell high' on the Rebels here again after fading them successfully with Louisville +7 in a 41-38 win by Ole Miss in the opener.

Ole Miss came away with that game with serious injury concerns with RB Kewan Lacy and WR Deuce Alexander both leaving the game with injuries among others.  Lacy rushed for 1,567 yards and 8 TD last season while Alexander was their only returning receiver with 44 receptions for 684 yards and 2 TD.  He has 5 receptions for 159 yards and two TD against Louisville and was a big reason they won the game.  

I would bet surprised if Golding doesn't elect to sit his injured players against Charlotte knowing they can win this game without them.  That's especially the case with the biggest game of the season on deck against LSU and Lane Kiffin.  That makes this the ultimate sandwich spot coming off the big National TV win over Louisville at the buzzer last week, and with LSU on deck next week.  Ole Miss isn't worried about covering this game against Charlotte.  They just want to win and advance.

Tim Albin took Ohio to three straight 10-win seasons and its first MAC title since 1968 before taking the job at Charlotte last season.  The cupboard was bare as Charlotte replaced almost everyone.  Now Albin has more of the players he wants in place in Year 2, and the 49ers should be one of the most improved teams in the country after a disastrous 1-11 campaign last season that has them undervalued this season.

Yes, Charlotte lost outright 43-41 (OT) to FCS opponent The Citadel in the opener, but that misleading result has provided us with extra line value this week.  Charlotte outgained The Citadel 538 to 400 for the game, or by 138 total yards.  And I really liked what I saw from the new pieces on offense.

Charlotte QB Cole Gonzales went 28-of-41 passing for 322 yards and 3 TD against The Citadel.  He transferred in from Western Carolina after throwing for 6,682 yards and 52 TD the past two seasons there.  App State transfer Khamani Alexander rushed for 138 yards on 14 carries.  Another App State transfer in Jaden Barnes had 7 receptions for 93 yards, while returnee Jaylen Hampton had 8 receptions for 117 yards and 2 TD.

As bad as Charlotte was last season, the 49ers covered in a similar spot in a 35-3 loss at Georgia as 43.5-point dogs.  Now we are catching 47.5 with an even better Charlotte team, and against an Ole Miss team that isn't as good as that Georgia team was.  That's especially the case with all the injuries the Rebels are dealing with right now.  This game will be much closer than this line indicates.  Bet Charlotte Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Oregon State +26

Oregon State is going to be one of the most improved teams in the country after a disastrous 2-10 season last year.  First-year head coach Jamarcus Shepard has earned this opportunity after being an assistant at Alabama, Washington and Washington State prior.  Offensive coordinator Mitch Dahlen is from the Kalen DeBoer tree following him from Washington to Alabama before coming here, a noted massive Oregon State fan.  And Shepard was able to nab a veteran defensive coordinator in Mike MacIntyre, one of the more underrated hires of the offseason.

The cupboard was not bare for Shepard with 10 returning starters.  He brought in Mercer transfer Braden Atkinson and started him right away over incumbent Maalik Murphy.  Atkinson went 29-of-48 for 376 yards and a TD while also rushing for a score in a 33-20 loss to Houston as 20.5-point road dogs in the opener.  That is a Houston team that is a Big 12 title contender off a 10-3 season last year with a ton of returning talent and transfers.

In fact, I think Houston will be every bit as good as Texas Tech this season.  The Red Raiders are one of the most overrated teams in the country after winning the down Big 12 last season.  They lost six NFL draft picks on defense and won't be nearly as good on that side of the ball.  They lost QB Behren Morton, their top two receivers and two starters along the O-Line.

Texas Tech brought in Cincinnati transfer Brendan Sorsby to replace Morton at QB, but he got in gambling trouble and is out.  That leaves Will Hammond, who while still decent is a big downgrade at QB.  That was evident in a lackluster 33-10 win over Abiline Christian as 45.5-point favorites in the opener, failing to cover by 22.5 points.  Abilene Christian lost 21-14 to lowly Lamar the week prior.

Now Texas Tech hits the road for the first time.  They beat Oregon State 45-14 at home last season for a 31-point victory.  It will be a different story in Corvallis with the Beavers giving the Red Raiders are much stiffer test this time around.  The talent on these teams is much closer than this spread would indicate.  Bet Oregon State Saturday.

15* Iowa State/Iowa NBC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 40.5

Death, taxes and the UNDER in the Cy-Hawk rivalry between Iowa State and Iowa.  The UNDER is 18-3 in the last 21 meetings in this rivalry.  Iowa State and Iowa have combined for 29, 39, 33 and 17 points in their last four meetings.  It will be more of the same in the 2026 version.

The Cyclones hired Jimmy Rogers from Washington State.  The Cougars ranked 125th in tempo last season as Rogers played slow to try and give his team the best chance to win knowing he was under-manned.  The result was a 9-3 UNDER record in the regular season and 49 or fewer combined points in 10 of those 12 games.

Rogers will have to do the same thing at Iowa State to try and make the Cyclones competitive.  His Washington State team had an elite defense allowing 20.2 points per game.  He brought his defensive coordinator with him that served under him at Washington State and also South Dakota State prior in Jesse Bobbit.  He also added offensive coordinator Tyler Roehl, who ran a run-heavy scheme at North Dakota State.

The Cyclones lose all 22 starters from last season as everyone transferred with Matt Campbell to Penn State.  I like some of the talent Rogers brought in defensively and he will have a good defense this season and everywhere he goes.  But the offense is a problem outside QB Jaylen Raynor, the dual-threat Arkansas State transfer.  But it's not like the Cyclones are going to crush it offensively at all this season.

Iowa State played to my expectations in Week 1 in a 38-10 win over SE Missouri State.  The offense managed just 303 total yards including 108 rushing on 3.5 per carry against a FCS opponent.  The defense held them to 209 total yards, including 67 rushing and 1.5 per carry.  So they can't run the ball but they can stop the run, and that will come in handy against Iowa.

The Hawkeyes rushed for 289 yards in their 40-0 win over Northern Illinois in the opener.  They are going with two different QB's as neither has emerged, which is a bad sign for another poor Iowa QB performance this season.  They will rely on their run game, and I think Iowa State can hold up enough to limit Iowa to less than 30 points.

I don't see Iowa State scoring more than 10 points against this elite Iowa defense.  The Hawkeyes didn't allow a single first down in the first 10 drives to Northern Illinois in the shutout win.  They did give up some yardage late in garbage time, but still held NIU to just 120 total yards and 2.2 yards per play.  This is yet another elite Phil Parker defense in Iowa City.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Georgia Southern/Clemson UNDER 56.5

Clemson has an elite defense every year and that will prove to be the case again this season.  But the offense may be the worst of the Dabo Swinney era.  Clemson was held to 3 points in the first 57 minutes against LSU before getting a TD in garbage time.

The Tigers managed just 8 first downs for the entire game.  Starting QB Christopher Vizzina went 10-of-16 passing for 83 yards, and backup Reynolds went 4-of-6 for 22 yards.  No question the Tigers will have more success offensively against Georgia Southern than LSU, but they aren't going to hang 50 on them.

Clay Helton is known as an offensive coach and that reputation has these Georgia Southern totals inflated dating back to last season.  Georgia Southern is now 6-1 UNDER in its last seven games overall finishing with 55 or fewer combined points in four straight.  That's after a 31-0 win over Charleston Southern in the opener.

Georgia Southern returned 6 starters on defense but zero starters on offense this season.  This will be Helton's best defense yet with seven of the top 13 tacklers back.  But this could be his worst offense.  Max Johnson never made it as a college QB and now he has found his way to Georgia Southern.  They have to replace a 1,000-yard rusher and a 1,000-yard receiver, QB French French who transferred to Cincinnati, and all five offensive linemen.  I could see Clemson coming close to shutting out Georgia Southern today to pave the way to us cashing this UNDER 56.5 ticket.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on UCLA -11.5

UCLA had one of the best hires of the offseason when they nabbed Bob Chesney of James Madison.  Chesney led the Dukes to the college football playoff in his 2nd season last year.  He took Holy Cross to the playoffs in four of his previous five seasons there.  Chesney is one of the best young coaches in the country.

Chesney was able to get seven starters to stick around, including QB Nico Iamaleava and three of the top six tacklers on defense.  He added 11 transfers who were starters at other programs, giving the Bruins basically 18 returning starters.  A lot of the transfer come with Chesney from JMU.  That includes RB Wayne Knight who rushed for 1,373 yards and averaged 6.6 per carry last season.  He absolutely crushed in the transfer portal, and I expect the Bruins to hit the ground running this season.

UCLA lit up Cal 45-24 in the opener behind 461 total yards and 8.5 yards per play from the offense.  Nico threw for 184 yards and rushed for a score in the win.  Anthony Woods and Wayne Knight combined for 189 rushing yards and five scores on just 16 carries.  They held what is a very talented Cal offense to just 4.7 yards per play, outgaining them by 3.8 yards per play.

San Diego State was led by its defense last season that returned 10 starters.  The Aztecs allowed just 15.4 points per game in 2025 after allowing 29.6 points per game in 2024.  But they lost their stud defensive coordinator in the offseason, and new coordinator Demetrius Sumler has his hands full.  San Diego State only returns three starters on defense while losing eight of its top nine tacklers.

SDSU beat FCS Portland State 53-20 in the opener, failing to cover as massive 38.5-point favorites.  The Aztecs only outgained Portland State by 18 total yards in the win.  It was a very misleading final and a much closer game than the 33-point margin would indicate.  We'll take advantage of that misleading final which has given us ample value to back UCLA.

San Diego State does have eight starters back on offense and figures to be better with all of its top skill players returning.  However, this was a poor offense last season scoring 26.4 points per game after scoring 21.3 points per game in 2024.  And I think they have a low ceiling because they are sticking with Jayden Dengal as their QB, and I think he's one of the worst QB's in the country.  Denegal only completed 58.8% of his passes for 1,807 yards with a 9-to-8 TD/INT ratio last season.  He also doesn't offer much with his legs rushing for just 99 yards all season last year.  UCLA is the much superior team and it will show on the field and the scoreboard in its home opener Saturday night.  Bet UCLA Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on UNLV/North Texas UNDER 57.5

UNLV lost 27-21 at home to Memphis in Week 0 for just 48 combined points.  The offense looked good for nearly 3 quarters before losing two starting offensive linemen to injury, including their center.  They could not do anything on offense after losing their center Austin Boyd, and they continue having troubles offensively without him.

That proved to be the case again last week as UNLV beat Hawaii 21-6 for just 27 combined points.  UNLV had 364 yards but held Hawaii to 294 yards.  They rushed 41 times against Memphis and 43 times against Hawaii.  They clearly want to run the football with dual-threat QB Jackson Arnold, who is much more dangerous with his legs than with his arm.

North Texas underwent one of the biggest makeovers of the offseason.  Head coach Eric Morris and his fast-paced offense left for Oklahoma State and brought all of his best players with him.  That left the cupboard very bare for new head coach Neil Brown, who was fired at West Virginia.  Zero starters returned for the Mean Green as Brown had to do everything through the transfer portal.

QB Tayven Jackson was a decent get but he's on his 4th different program for a reason because he's just not that good.  Brown brought WVU transfer Jahiem White with him from WVU at RB, and he wants to be a run-heavy offense to utilize the dual-threat ability of Jackson plus White.  So we have two run-heavy teams here to keep the clock moving.

One other factor here is that there will be 10-15 MPH winds and temps in the 100's in Denton on Saturday.  I think both offenses will go slower due to the heat to try and stay as fresh as possible to make it through this game.  And the passing and kicking games for both teams will be affected by the wind.  That makes for an easy UNDER here.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Rice +44.5

Notre Dame is coming off one of the most misleading wins of Week 1.  The Fighting Irish beat Wisconsin 41-13 despite only outgaining them by 66 yards.  They benefited from being +2 in turnovers as Wisconsin gifted them two touchdowns.  And that's a Wisconsin team that isn't very good and one that was banged up coming into the game.

After playing at Lambeau Field against Wisconsin, and with Michigan State on deck, this is a sandwich spot for Notre Dame.  I don't think they will motivated to beat Rice by 45-plus points, which is what it's going to take to cover this inflated spread.  I also don't think Notre Dame is explosive enough offensively to win by this margin this season.

What stood out most from the Wisconsin game is just that lack of playmakers on offense.  The Fighting Irish managed just 350 total yards and 5.7 per play against Wisconsin.  The losses of two first-round draft picks at RB really showed as new RB Aneyas Williams isn't nearly as explosive.  He's more of a grinder who churns out the tough yards but can't break the big run like Love and Price could.

I like QB CJ Carr, but he just doesn't have much talent to work with at receiver, either.  Carr went 19-of-29 passing for 239 yards and 2 TD in the win.  Jordan Faison had 4 receptions for 81 yards and is really their only proven playmaker.  The rest of the faces are new at receiver and TE and it showed.  It's worth noting ND has key injuries to S Tae Johnson, NT Jason Onye and C Ashton Craig who will all likely be sitting out this unimportant game in the grand scheme  of things.  Coaches will play it smart with their injuries.

Scott Abel did a great job of getting Rice to a bowl game in his first season on the job last year with just 7 returning starters.  The highlight was an upset win over a very good UConn team.  Now Abel has more of the pieces in place to run the scheme he wants to run offensively, which is a run heavy scheme under his longtime coordinator Vince Munch dating back to his time at Davidson.

Senior QB Jacurri Brown was one of the top recruits in the country coming out of high school.  He made 3 starters for Miami and two starts for UCF before coming here.  This is his last stand and he wants to make the most of it.  

Brown led Rice to a 31-3 win over Houston Christian in the opener.  The Owls rushed for a whopping 465 yards in the win, showing what they are capable of on the ground.  And when I'm getting 44.5 points, I want my team to be able to run the football and churn the clock.  I don't want a bunch of incomplete passes.  Rice is the perfect big underdog to do just that.  There won't be enough possessions in this game for Notre Dame to cover.  Bet Rice Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Texas State -120

Texas State is one of the better Group of 6 programs in the country.  GJ Kinne enters his 4th season in San Marcos and is one of the best young head coaches in the country.  He has led the Bobcats to bowl games in each of his first three seasons, and honestly it could have been a lot better as they have had some very poor luck in close games the last two seasons in particular.

There was a stretch last season where the Bobcats lost three straight heartbreakers by 1 to Arkansas State, and in OT to both Troy and Marshall.  But they finished strong blowing out their final four opponents by 31, 27, 23 and 17 points.  And they carry that momentum with them into 2026 with 11 returning starters, which is a big number for a Group of 6 program in today's college football.

The offense in particular will be one of the best in the country after averaging 36.5 points per game and 473 yards per game last season.  Seven starters are back on offense including QB Brad Jackson, who threw for 3,224 yards with a 21-to-7 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 744 yards and a whopping 17 TD as a freshman last season.  Joining him will be a pair of 1,000-yard receivers from last season in Beau Sparks (1,200 yards, 10 TD) and Chris Dawn (1,007 yards, 4 TD).  The O-Line is anchored by returning starters in LT Sully Burns and C Justin DeLeon.

Texas State returns three of hits top five tacklers on defense in FS Nolan, LB Jones and LB Cooks.  The Bobcats add in a ton of quality transfers on D and should have one of the best defenses of the Kinne era.  Things are looking up for Texas State in 2026.

I think we are getting some line value here after Texas State got blasted 59-7 at Texas in the opener.  But that was one of the most misleading finals of Week 1.  The Bobcats were only outgained by 167 yards, which isn't bad going up against one of the best teams in the country in Texas.  They put up 349 total yards on that vaunted Texas defense.

While Texas State was playing one of the best teams in the country, UTSA was playing one of the worst teams in FCS in UTRGV in Week 1.  The Miners won 45-16 in a very misleading final.  They only outgained UTRGV by 105 yards in the win.  They allowed 422 yards, and this UTSA defense is clearly a weakness once again this season.

UTSA went 7-6 last season thanks to a 5-2 record in home/neutral games.  But the Miners have been awful on the road, going 2-10 SU in true road games over the last two seasons.  And their two road wins last season weren't impressive at all as they beat Colorado State 17-16 as 4-point favorites and lowly Charlotte 28-7 as 17-point favorites.  They were upset as 6-point favorites at Temple, lost by 38 at North Texas, lost by 32 at USF and lost by 18 at Texas A&M.  They went 0-6 in true road games in 2024 with two upset losses.

UTSA only brings back two starters on defense this season, and defense has been its weakness the last few seasons.  They allowed 30.1 points per game in 2024 and 28.8 points per game in 2025.  They do return six starters on offense including QB Owen McCown, but they lose leading rusher Robert Henry (1,045 yards, 9 TD) and leading receiver McCuin (726 yards, 8 TD).  They lose four of their top five receivers overall.

Texas State beat UTSA 49-10 at home in 2024.  Texas State beat UTSA 43-36 on the road in 2025.  Jackson threw for 286 yards and rushed for two scores in the win.  McCown was dreadful, going 23-of-43 passing for 219 yards in the loss.  It will be more of the same here as the Bobcats are once again the superior team in 2026.  Bet Texas State on the Money Line Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rice/Notre Dame UNDER 55.5

Notre Dame is coming off one of the most misleading wins of Week 1.  The Fighting Irish beat Wisconsin 41-13 despite only outgaining them by 66 yards.  They benefited from being +2 in turnovers as Wisconsin gifted them two touchdowns.  This should have been more of a 27-13 game for 40 combined points given the stats.  And this total is inflated as a result.

What stood out most from the Wisconsin game is just that lack of playmakers on offense.  The Fighting Irish managed just 350 total yards and 5.7 per play against Wisconsin.  The losses of two first-round draft picks at RB really showed as new RB Aneyas Williams isn't nearly as explosive.  He's more of a grinder who churns out the tough yards but can't break the big run like Love and Price could.

I like QB CJ Carr, but he just doesn't have much talent to work with at receiver, either.  Carr went 19-of-29 passing for 239 yards and 2 TD in the win.  Jordan Faison had 4 receptions for 81 yards and is really their only proven playmaker.  The rest of the faces are new at receiver and TE and it showed.

Without question, Notre Dame has one of the best defenses in the country.  The Fighting Irish returned nine starters on defense this season which is unheard of for a program of their caliber.  They allowed 17.6 points per game last season and will be even better this season.  They allowed 15 points per game the two previous seasons under Marcus Freeman.

Scott Abel did a great job of getting Rice to a bowl game in his first season on the job last year with just 7 returning starters.  The highlight was an upset win over a very good UConn team.  Now Abel has more of the pieces in place to run the scheme he wants to run offensively, which is a run-heavy scheme under his longtime coordinator Vince Munch dating back to his time at Davidson.

Brown led Rice to a 31-3 win over Houston Christian in the opener.  The Owls rushed for a whopping 465 yards in the win, showing what they are capable of on the ground.  They only attempted 10 passes for the entire game.  And when I'm backing an UNDER, I want teams to be able to run the football and churn the clock.  I don't want a bunch of incomplete passes.  Rice is the perfect big underdog to do just that.  Notre Dame will be happy to run the ball and the clock in the 2H and just get out of there with a win.  There won't be enough possessions in this game for it to go over.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech -17.5

James Franklin is notorious for running it up on overmatched teams.  He knows the spread of every game and has punched in an extra score late to make sure to cover when needed.  And given all the factors leading into this game, the Hokies will have no problem running it up on Old Dominion this week.

Old Dominion upset Virginia Tech 45-26 last season.  You can bet the Hokies have not forgotten and want their revenge.  That loss led the firing of head coach Brent Pry, and the Hokies went on for a disastrous 3-9 season.  Franklin hired Pry to stay on the staff and be their defensive coordinator.  He spent eight seasons under Franklin as the DC at Penn State.  You know Fry wants revenge on ODU, and his players will have his back.

The Hokies have one of the most experienced rosters in all of college football.  They return 15 starters which is rare for the NIL era.  They also added in three transfer starters.  That includes QB Ethank Grunkemeyer and TE Luke Reynolds among several Penn State transfers who came with Franklin to Blacksburg.

Franklin wasn't afraid to run it up even on lowly VMI in their opener.  The Hokies won 73-3 as 54.5-point favorites after leading 45-0 at halftime.  They racked up 619 total yards and 8.6 yards per play while holding their foes to 83 yards and 1.5 per play.  Grunkemeyer finished 17-of-20 passing for 224 yards and 2 TD in the win.  Duke transfer Que'Sean Brown had 6 receptions for 109 yards and a score in his Hokie debut.

While I'm very high on Virginia Tech this season, I'm also very down on Old Dominion, creating the perfect storm for a blowout.  The Monarchs are overvalued off a 10-3 season last year.  They only bring back seven starters from that team, and the losses are huge.  The biggest loss is QB Colton Joseph, who threw for 2,624 yards and 21 TD, while also rushing for 1,007 yards and 13 TD as one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country last year.  Joseph is gone to Wisconsin.

The Hokies in particular won't mind not having to face Joseph.  He went 16-of-22 for for 276 yards and 2 TD, while also rushing for 63 yards and a score on the Hokies last season.  The Monarchs only have one starter back on offense.  They lost their offensive coordinator as well, so this will be their worst offense in years.  They break in five new starters along the offensive line which is never good.

Old Dominion was unimpressive in its opener in a 31-10 win over Norfolk State as a 41.5-point favorite.  The Monarchs not only failed to cover, by 20.5 points, the game was actually closer than the final score.  They only outgained Norfolk State by 99 yards and were held to 319 total yards, a sign their offense is going to be terrible.  Norfolk State is one of the worst FCS teams in the country.  They went 1-11 last season.  They just lost 59-3 to Virginia on Friday.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Army -3.5

Army returned 11 starters this season which is quite a few for a service academy.  Jeff Monken has the Black Knights as one of the most consistent winning programs in the country and it's not about to stop any time soon.  Army has finished .500 or better in six consecutive seasons.

What's really exciting for Army is that eight starters return on offense, including QB Cale Hellums.  He rushed for 1,223 yards and 18 TD last season.  Four starters are back along the offensive line and this is a Joe Moore Award contender once again after winning the award for the nation's best offensive line in 2024 just two seasons ago.

Hellums and that dominant offensive line did some work in Week 1 paving the way for 569 rushing yards and 10.0 yards per carry in a 59-3 win over Bryant.  Army held Bryant to 165 yards and 3.1 per play.  The Black Knights always have an elite defense, and that will be the case again.  They have allowed 23 points per game or fewer in six consecutive seasons.

But while I'm high on Army, this is as much of a fade of South Florida as anything.  The Bulls lost head coach Alex Golesh to Auburn and he took all his best players with him.  The Bulls only have three returning starters and a new head coach in Brian Hartline, who was the offensive coordinator at Ohio State prior.  This is a massive rebuilding job for Hartline, and after Week 1 it's easy to see this is going to be one of the worst teams in the country.

South Florida beat Florida International 19-9 in Week 1 as 14.5-point home favorites.  It was one of the most misleading finals of the week.  South Florida managed just 208 total yards and 3.7 yards per play, while allowing 381 total yards and 5.1 per play to Florida International.  The Bulls actually got outgained by 173 yards and 1.4 per play by FIU and had no business winning that game.  They were +3 in turnovers which was the difference.  That misleading final is providing tremendous line value to back Army -3.5 here as the much superior team at home.  Bet Army Saturday.

20* Missouri/Kansas FOX No-Brainer on OVER 50

Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki is back at Kansas after being in the same position at Penn State the last two years.  Kansas' offense wasn't as good after losing him, and head coach Lance Leipold is glad to have him back.  He actually called this the most complete offense he's ever had in his six seasons at Kansas.

That's big praise considering this Kansas offense was elite under Kotelnicki in 2023 and 2024.  In fact, Kansas scored 35.6 points per game in 2023 and 34.8 points per game in 2024.  The offensive line has 10 different guys he is comfortable starting, including future NFL'er Calvin Clements at LT.

Kansas beat Long Island 51-6 in the opener behind 613 total yards and 8.1 yards per play.  The next great Kansas QB is sophomore Isaiah Marshall, who threw for 246 yards and 2 TD, while also rushing for 49 yards on seven carries.  Syracuse transfer Yasin Willis rushed for 72 yards and two scores on 11 carries.  Buffalo transfer Nik McMillan had 6 receptions for 130 yards and a score.  Leipold did well in the transfer portal replacing his skill position players.

One of the most underrated transfer gets in the offseason was Missouri nabbing Austin Simmons from Ole Miss.  Simmons was the starter at Ole Miss last season before getting injured, and Trinidad Chambliss took the job and never let go of it, leading the Rebels all the way to the semifinals.  Many believe that Chambliss is the best QB in the country.

The point is Simmons beat out Chambliss for the starting job and only lost it due to injury, not performance.  Simmons himself is one of the best QB's in the country.  He went 17-of-19 passing for 252 yards and 4 TD in his Missouri debut, a 54-14 beat down of Arkansas-Pine Bluff.  Missouri led 40-0 at halftime before calling off the dogs and sitting Simmons.

Missouri looks much better off offensively this season than it does defensively.  The Tigers brought back six starters on offense and added three more in the transfer portal for a total of nine.  They even got WR Cayden Lee to come along with Simmons from Ole Miss.  He had 1,509 receiving yards the last two seasons at Ole Miss.  I know Missouri will be without arguably the best RB in the country in Ahmad Hardy after a shooting accident in the offseason.  He's close to returning.  But his backup in Jamal Roberts is a stud as well, rushing for 753 yards and 6 TD with 6.1 per carry last season.

This Missouri defense looks like the worst unit that Eliah Drinkwitz has had since at least 2021.  Missouri returns just two starts and two of its top 15 tacklers from a year ago.  The Tigers only added one starter in the transfer portal on D, too.  It wasn't the best sign giving up two touchdowns to Pine Bluff last week.  

Kansas never has an elite defense allowing 26.0 points per game or more in each of Leipold's first five seasons.  This will be a below average unit again.  That's especially the case for this game with starting LB Bam Crouch doubtful.  He made 17 starts at Boston College and had 89 tackles before transferring here.  The Jayhawks have four new starters along the D-Line and Missouri's O-Line will dominate.

Last year, Missouri beat Kansas 42-31 for a whopping 73 combined points.  The Tigers racked up 595 total yards in the win.  And that was a Missouri offense that wasn't as potent as this year's unit. Missouri will be able to hang a big number on Kansas, and I think the Jayhawks are capable of matching them score for score again.  The forecast looks great for another shooting with temps between 75-85, very light winds and no rain.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Wisconsin/Notre Dame NBC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 46.5

Wisconsin was a dead nuts UNDER team last season going 10-2 UNDER in all games while finishing with 38 or fewer combined points in 10 of its 12 games.  This total of 46.5 is pretty high for a game involving the Badgers, who averaged 12.8 points per game and allowed 21.6 points per game last season.  The Badgers also ranked 133rd out of 136 teams in tempo snapping the ball every 30.5 seconds.

Notre Dame ranked 105th in tempo last season snapping the ball every 27.8 seconds.  The offense will be good with sophomore QB CJ Carr emerging as one of the best QB's in the country.  But they lost two first-round draft picks at RB in Love and Price, who combined for over 2,000 rushing yards and 29 rushing TD last season.  The offensive line is banged up to start the season, so I don't expect Carr to hit the ground running.

Speaking of offensive line injuries, Luke Fickell has said they want to be smart with some of their offensive linemen who are injured leading into this game.  That means they will likely sit, and the Badgers will be undermanned offensively as a result.  I like the addition of QB Colton Joseph from Old Dominion and believe he will ultimately be an upgrade over what the Badgers have had in recent seasons.  But it's just not going to show much in Week 1.  He is lacking playmakers outside to go along with a banged up O-Line.

Notre Dame may have the best defense in the country this season.  The Fighting Irish allowed just 17.6 points per game last season, and they've held opponents to less than 20 PPG in six of the past seven seasons.  Amazingly, the Fighting Irish bring back nine starters on defense this season.  They will shut down Wisconsin to pave the way to us cashing this UNDER 46.5 ticket.  Look for their offense to sit on the ball with a big lead in the 2H as well.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Louisville/Ole Miss ABC No-Brainer on Louisville +7

The Louisville Cardinals are live underdogs in Week 1 to Ole Miss.  Jeff Brohm is the ultimate head coach you want to back as an underdog.  Since 2018, Brohm's teams have gone 11-4 ATS as an underdog of 7 or more points.  He has gone 8-1 ATS as a dog between 7 and 14 points with seven outright upsets.  That includes an upset win against Miami last year as 13-point dogs.

In fact, Louisville hasn't lost a single game by more than 7 points over the last two seasons in which they had their starting QB.  The only exception was against SMU late last season the game after getting eliminated from ACC title contention.  They lost that game without starting QB Miller Moss.

Brohm crushed the transfer portal in the offseason bringing in eight transfers who were starters at other programs, giving the Cardinals 14 returning starters overall.  They have arguably the best 1-2 punch at RB in the country in Isaac Brown (884 yards, 7 TD, 8.8 YPC last year) and Keyjuan Brown (704 yards, 6 TD, 7.3 YPC).  They added QB Lincoln Kienholz who was in a battle with Julian Sayin last season for the starting QB job at Ohio State.  They also added Vandy WR transfer Tre Richardson and FSU WR transfer Lewayne McCoy, as well as Tulsa TE transfer Brody Foley to give Kienholz the weapons he needs to succeed.

Four starts and four of the top nine tacklers are back from a defense that allowed just 21.2 points per game last season.  And defense is where Brohm gets overlooked because he's an offensive guy, but he notoriously has great defenses as his teams have allowed 21.3 points per game or fewer in three of the last four seasons, and the 24.1 points per game in 2024 was the lone exception.  The Cardinals are loaded at LB this season and bring back their best defensive lineman in DE Cleve Lubin (61 tackles, 8.5 sacks last year).

While I like Louisville this season, this more of a early season fade against Ole Miss after making the semifinals of the college football playoff last season.  Nobody expected Pete Golding to be able to take the Rebels on a deep run after Lane Kiffin left for LSU.  But the Rebels played with a chip on their shoulder and were able to retain their coordinators for the playoff run to keep continuity.

That continuity is gone now with a new offensive coordinator in John David Baker and a new defensive coordinator in Bryan Brown.  The Rebels will be fine offensively with QB Trinidad Chambliss and RB Kewan Lacy back, but they won't match last year's numbers.  They lose their top two receivers and their starting RT and LT, so they could have problems keeping Chambliss protected this season.

The Rebels lose 11 of their top 15 tacklers from last season defensively.  While there is a lot of talent here from the transfer portal, I can't see Ole Miss being as dominant as they have been defensively the past couple seasons.  Expectations were high after a playoff run, but I'll gladly 'sell high' on the Rebels here and back Louisville as an underdog on a neutral field in Nashville.  Bet Louisville Sunday.

20* UCLA/Cal ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UCLA ML -122

UCLA had one of the best hires of the offseason when they nabbed Bob Chesney of James Madison.  Chesney led the Dukes to the college football playoff in his 2nd season last year.  He took Holy Cross to the playoffs in four of his previous five seasons at Holy Cross.  Chesney is one of the best young coaches in the country.

Chesney was able to get seven starters to stick around, including QB Nico Iamaleava and three of the top six tacklers on defense.  He added 11 transfers who were starters at other programs, giving the Bruins basically 18 returning starters.  A lot of the transfer come with Chesney from JMU.  That includes RB Wayne Knight who rushed for 1,373 yards and averaged 6.6 per carry last season.  He absolutely crushed in the transfer portal, and I expect the Bruins to hit the ground running this season.

California finally moved on from Justin Wilcox and the cupboard is pretty bare for new head coach Tosh Lupoi, who was Oregon's defensive coordinator.  While the Golden Bears look very good at QB with JSP and at WR, the rest of the roster is a mess.  They have four new starters on the offensive line.  But the defense is the biggest concern with just three returning starters, and the Golden Bears lose each of their top five tacklers from last year.  Lupoi will be going with mostly transfers who were backups at other programs.  This will likely be one of the worst defenses in the ACC this season.  Bet UCLA on the Money Line.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Central Michigan/New Mexico UNDER 47.5

Central Michigan ranked 134th out of 136 teams in tempo last season snapping the ball every 30.8 seconds.  New Mexico ranked 94th in tempo snapping the ball every 27.5 seconds.  Both teams will play slow again, and both teams will rely on defense and slowing down the pace to try and win games in 2026.

New Mexico went 6-1 UNDER in its final seven games last season finishing with 47 or fewer combined points in six of those seven games.  That even included a pair of OT games against Minnesota and SDSU.  Their defense was legit last season allowing just 22.3 points per game.  With six starters and five of their top seven tacklers back, the Lobos will be even stronger defensively this season.

The problem for the Lobos is losing starting QB Jack Layne to a season-ending elbow injury in camp.  Layne was awesome last season, completing 65.1% of his passes for 2,486 yards and 13 TD< while also rushing for 152 yards and four scores.  But Layne isn't the only loss.  The Lobos lose their top three receivers and top three RB's from last season.  They are going to struggle to score with a backup QB who doesn't have any proven playmakers.

Central Michigan enters Year 2 under Matt Drinkall who guided Army to the Joe Moore Award as the nation's best offensive line as the O-Line coach there.  He believes in running the football with a Power Spread offense that takes advantage of a QB's running ability.  The Chippewas are the rare team that still uses a fullback, which alone screams dead nuts UNDER team.

The Chippewas were indeed an UNDER team last season scoring just 22.5 points per game on offense and allowing just 23.5 points per game on defense.  They did a great job of shortening games to stay competitive and were rewarded with a trip to a bowl game in Drinkall's first season.  It's not a fun brand to play, but it is a way to be competitive.

The offense will struggle again this season with the losses of their top three receivers and their top two RB's.  The defense should be solid again with several quality transfers brought in by Drinkall and he will have his players in place now.  I think both defenses will be ahead of the offenses in Week 1.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* UNLV/Hawaii CW Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 55.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 55.5 ticket between UNLV and Hawaii tonight.  There will be 20-25 MPH sustained winds and a chance of rain in Hawaii. That's going to make it very difficult to pass the football, and it will really handcuff both offenses, especially the Rainbow Warriors.

Hawaii went 9-4 last season and were led by a defense that only allowed 24.1 points per game.  While the offense had some nice pieces at QB and WR, the Rainbow Warriors scored just 29.0 points per game last season.  They have QB Micah Alejado back for his sophomore season, but he won't have nearly as much talent around him as he did last season.

Alejado won't have his top four receivers from last year, his leading rusher, and three starting offensive lineman.  The loss of WR Jackson Harris (963 yards, 12 TD) wouldn't have been as big if Pofele Ashlock (827 yards, 8 TD) was healthy to start the season.  But he's not and he sat out Week 0 and will likely sit out again this week.  I expect their offense to take a bigger step back this season than their defense will.

Hawaii is coming off a misleading 37-27 road loss at Stanford in Week 0.  That was a dead nuts under game for 3 quarters before the offenses exploded in the 4th for 36 points.  There were only 30 points scored through 3 quarters.  Hawaii scored 3 TD in the 4th quarter alone, and Stanford scored 2 TD in the final two minutes including a fumble-6 TD.  Hawaii managed just 46 rushing yards on 22 carries for 2.1 per carry in the loss.  They had 322 total yards and 4.4 per play on offense against what is a bad Stanford defense.

UNLV lost 27-21 at home to Memphis in Week 0 for just 48 combined points.  The offense looked good for nearly 3 quarters before losing two starting offensive linemen to injury, including their center.  They could not do anything on offense after losing their center, and they will have the same troubles in Week 1 without two starting offensive linemen due to injury.  They are going to want to get star RB Jai'den Thomas going after he had just 44 yards on 12 carries against Memphis.  QB Jackson Arnold will also use his legs in this one more than his arm.

UNLV beat Hawaii 38-10 last season at home for just 48 combined points in perfect conditions in the dome.  UNLV held Hawaii to just 253 total yards in the win.  I think they will shut down Hawaii again, and the weather will really aid us in cashing this UNDER 55.5 ticket tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Arkansas State +11.5

This is a terrible spot for the Memphis Tigers.  They are coming off a 27-21 road win at UNLV in Week 0 where they celebrated like they won the National Championship.  They stayed in Las Vegas, and now they must travel clear back east to host Arkansas State in Week 1.  That win sparked college football playoff talk for Memphis, and now they are a 'fat and happy' team returning home.  They have an even bigger road game on deck at Boise State next week that could determine their playoff fate, making this the ultimate sandwich spot.

Memphis only returned one starter from last year's team for first-year head coach Charlie Huff.  He brought a lot of players from Southern Miss with him to fill out the roster.  Memphis was very fortunate to beat UNLV and benefited from two key offensive line injuries for UNLV during the game where they had no success after losing their starting C in particular.

Up to that point, UNLV was doing whatever it wanted to offensively on this suspect Memphis defense.  UNLV still racked up 460 total yards and 7.7 yards per play despite doing almost nothing offensively in the 4th quarter.  QB Jackson Arnold looked like the 5-star recruit he was coming out of HS, throwing for 291 yards and 2 TD while also rushing for 54 yards and a score against this Memphis D.

Arkansas State has been a steady program under Butch Jones, who has led the Red Wolves to bowl games in each of his last three seasons.  Jones has 10 returning starters this season which is a lot for a Group of 6 team.  And while they lose QB Jaylen Raynor, I think he was one of the more overrated QB's in the country.  It's very possible that Texas transfer Trey Owens will be an upgrade.  

The pieces are in place for Owens and company to have success with seven starters back on offense.  Two 500-yard rushers are back at RB, two of the top three receivers are back in Cobb (797 yards) and Summers (505 yards), and four starters are back along the offensive line.  Jones is a great offensive mind, and the Red Wolves will keep coming for four quarters offensively.

No question the Arkansas State defense has always been a concern and will be again this season.  But four of the top eight tacklers return in SS McGhee (83 tackles), FS Barnes (68 tackles), LB Nelson (54 tackles) and LB Greil (54 tackles).  The latter two may even lose their jobs to Kennesaw State transfer Five Hamilton and Lafayette transfer Tre Stevens.  The back 7 in particular looks very strong defensively.  Bet Arkansas State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Texas State +29.5

Texas State is one of the better Group of 6 programs in the country.  GJ Kinne enters his 4th season in San Marcos and is one of the better young head coaches in the country.  He has led the Bobcats to bowl games in each of his first three seasons, and honestly it could have been a lot better as they have had some very poor luck in close games the last two seasons in particular.

There was a stretch last season where the Bobcats lost three straight heartbreaks by 1 to Arkansas State, and in OT to both Troy and Marshall.  But they finished strong blowing out their final four opponents by 31, 27, 23 and 17 points.  And they carry that momentum with them into 2026 with 11 returning starters, which is a big number for a Group of 6 program in today's college football.

The offense in particular will be one of the best in the country after averaging 36.5 points per game and 473 yards per game last season.  Seven starters are back on offense including QB Brad Jackson, who threw for 3,224 yards with a 21-to-7 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 744 yards and a whopping 17 TD as a freshman last season.  Joining him will be a pair of 1,000-yard receivers from last season in Beau Sparks (1,200 yards, 10 TD) and Chris Dawn (1,007 yards, 4 TD).  The O-Line is anchored by returning starters in LT Sully Burns and C Justin DeLeon.

Texas State returns three of hits top five tacklers on defense in FS Nolan, LB Jones and LB Cooks.  The Bobcats add in a ton of quality transfers on D and should have one of the best defenses of the Kinne era.  But Texas State is going to keep coming on offense for four quarters in this game, and getting +29.5 with this offense is too much.

No question Texas has the talent again to be a national title contender.  The Longhorns have 11 starters back and add in some nice transfers.  But I think Arch Manning hasn't lived up to the hype and he may never live up to it.  Texas only averaged 30.5 points and 388 yards per game last season offensively.  That includes 138 rushing yards per game despite having a dual-threat QB.  The Longhorns leave a lot to be desired on offense, which makes it tough for them to get margin.

We saw that last season when the Longhorns failed to cover as 37-point favorites against San Jose State at home and as 40-point favorites against UTEP at home.  Texas State is night and day better than both of those programs.  Another key factor here is Texas has a huge game with Ohio State on deck and may call off the dogs in the 2H if necessary.  But I think they will be in more of a dog fight than they bargained for in Week 1.  Bet Texas State Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Marshall +24.5

Marshall will be one of the better Group of 6 teams in the country this season.  Tony Gibson enters his 2nd year at Marshall and did a good job of getting the Thundering Herd on the verge of a bowl game in his first season after Charlie Huff left for Southern Miss and took all his players with him.

Marshall went 5-7 last season with four losses by 4 points or less, so they were really close to being a 9-3 team.  They have nine starters back from that team which is actually quite a few for a Group of 6 team in today's college football.

The offense in particular is in good hands with the emergence of QB Carlos Del Rio-Wilson last season.  He completed 66.8% of his passes for 2,043 yards with a 17-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  He also rushed for 661 yards and 6 TD as one of the better dual-threats in the country.  He has three of his top four receivers back.  Del Rio-Wilson was a 3rd-stringer coming into the season last year and now he is their senior leader and a voice everyone can get behind.

The defense will be improved despite just three of the top 10 tacklers returning.  They have their sack leader in DE Braydin Ward back, and three other starters return in LB Gilmore, NB Pierre-Louis and SS Smith.  With those four back leading the way, this will be an improved defense to go with their already explosive offense that averaged 30.8 points per game last season.

Penn State has high expectations to live up to with Matt Campbell replacing James Franklin.  I always felt Campbell was better building smaller programs than he is going to be with all the headlines that come with coaching a program of Penn State's caliber.  He is good at getting the most our of lesser talent.  But time will tell how he does when he has more talent at his disposal.

In the intermediate, Campbell is relying on a lot of former Iowa State players to be great at Penn State.  And that's just not the type of talent Penn State is used to, so I think there will be some growing pains until he does actually get more talent to compete in the Big Ten.  The Nittany Lions only have five starters back from last year's team.  He signed 39 transfers with most from Iowa State.

QB Rocco Becht is coming off shoulder surgery.  RB Carson Hansen is not a big-time RB by any means but will be their starter.  It's basically an offense with Becht that only averaged 27.4 points per game last season.  The defense will likely take a step back too with Campbell relying on so many transfers.  They may be fine long-term, but in Week 1 they should not be laying 24.5 points to Marshall with all their question marks.  Bet Marshall Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on SEMO/Iowa State UNDER 53.5

The Iowa State Cyclones hired Jimmy Rogers from Washington State.  The Cougars ranked 125th in tempo last season as Rogers played slow to try and give his team the best chance to win knowing he was under-manned.  The result was a 9-3 UNDER record in the regular season and 49 or fewer combined points in 10 of those 12 games.  This total of 53.5 is too high today.

Rogers will have to do the same thing at Iowa State to try and make the Cyclones competitive.  His Washington State team had an elite defense allowing 20.2 points per game.  He brought his defensive coordinator with him that served under him at Washington State and also South Dakota State prior in Jesse Bobbit.  He also added offensive coordinator Tyler Roehl, who ran a run-heavy scheme at North Dakota State.

The Cyclones lose all 22 starters from last season as everyone transferred with Matt Campbell to Penn State.  I like some of the talent Rogers brought in defensively and he will have a good defense this season and everywhere he goes.  But the offense is a problem outside B Jaylen Raynor, the dual-threat Arkansas State transfer.  But it's not like the Cyclones are going to crush it offensively at all this season, including against FCS opponent SE Missouri State in Week 1.

SEMO is coming off a 23-21 upset win at Indiana State in Week 0 for just 44 combined points.  They managed just 327 total yards in the wind including 53 rushing on 30 carries.  They held the Sycamores to 346 yards as well.  I see Iowa State coming close to shutting out SEMO, which will pave the way to us easily cashing this UNDER 53.5 ticket.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Miami/Stanford ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 47

The Miami Hurricanes will have one of the best offenses in the country this season.  They got the prized QB of the transfer portal in Darian Mensah, who threw for 3,973 yards with a 34-to-6 TD/INT ratio at Duke last season.  I actually think Mensah is an upgrade over Carson Beck, who led the Hurricanes to the national championship game last season.

Mensah has a pair of All-American playmakers at his disposal in RB Mark Fletcher and WR Malachi Toney.  Fletcher rushed for 1,192 yards and 10 TD last season, while Toney caught 109 balls for 1,211 yards and 10 TD last season.  WR Cooper Barkate comes over with Mensah from Duke after catching 1,106 receiving yards last season.  The offensive line is loaded with talent as well.

Miami really rode its defense to the title game last season.  But the Hurricanes lose four NFL draft picks on defense including two first-rounders on the defensive line in Bain and Mesidor who combined for 22 sacks. While they will still be solid defensively, it's going to be very tough for them to replace that kind of production.

Stanford shifts to a more offensive-minded head coach in former Stanford QB Tavita Pritchard, who was the QB coach for the NFL's Commanders the last three seasons.  Seven starters returned on offense this season and they added Michigan transfer Davis Warren at QB.  Their offense already looks like one of the most improved units in the country.

Warren threw for 310 yards while also rushing for 31 yards in leading the Cardinal to a 37-27 win over Hawaii in Week 1 that saw 64 combined points.  Stanford racked up 483 yards and 6.8 yards per play against what was a very good Hawaii defense last season.  Micah Ford is one of the better RB's in the country, and he rushed for three touchdowns in the win.

Stanford's defense has been poor for years and it will continue to be poor this season.  The Cardinal have allowed at least 29.2 points per game in six consecutive seasons.  After allowing 27 points to a Hawaii offense that was very short on playmakers in Week 0 due to injury and transfer, this Stanford defense is clearly poor again.  The Rainbow Warriors did whatever they wanted in the 2H.

Miami did whatever it wanted offensively last season against Stanford in a 42-7 victory.  And I fully expect the Hurricanes to reach that 42-point mark in this game, and for Warren and this Stanford offense to have more success than they did a year ago.  I like both offenses more than both defenses in this game, and this total of 47 is pretty short considering the Hurricanes are capable of covering it on their own.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* UAB/Illinois CFB Thursday Night BAILOUT on OVER 54.5

Illinois opened last season going 5-1 OVER this 54.5-point total in its first six games with 55 or more combined points in five of those six games.  The only game they didn't reach this number was against a Western Michigan team with one of the worst offenses in the country, and one with a very good defense.

UAB is a dead nuts OVER team that went 10-2 OVER this 54.5-point total in all games last season with 55 or more combined points in 10 of those 12 games.  The Blazers will remain a dead nuts OVER team after hiring their offensive coordinator from last season in Alex Mortensen.  He was their interim coach after Trent Dilfer was fired and now gets the full-time gig.

Both teams are in much better shape offensively than they are defensively heading into Week 1.  That's especially the case for UAB, which must replace all 11 starters on defense.  The Blazers allowed 38.3 points per game last season and won't be any better defensively this season.  Illinois can name its number on this UAB defense.

The Blazers bring back QB Ryder Burton who made two starts last season and threw for 708 yards and 7 TD while completing 63.3%.  Mortensen was able to recruit some nice pieces on offense including former Georgia RB Rod Robinson and RB Bam McReynolds, who rushed for 637 yards at ULM last year.  WR Kaleb Brown is back, and they added seven talented WR transfers.  Two starters return on the offensive line and Mortensen is confident in this group.

Illinois must replace all seven starters along its front seven defensively this season.  That leaves major question marks, as does the fact that they have a new defensive coordinator in Bobby Hauck.  But the Fighting Illini return four starters on offense and add in four more starters from the FBS level.  Their offense shouldn't miss a beat this season.

That's especially the case since they nabbed East Carolina transfer Katin Houser at QB.  He threw for 5,306 yards and 37 TD the last two seasons at ECU.  Each of their top three rushers return, and two of their top three receivers are back.  Bret Bielema always has a solid offensive line and I trust he will again even with four new starters.

Temps will be in the 80's with no wind and no rain Thursday night in Champaign. It will be perfect scoring conditions, and I expect both offenses to have their way with these two defenses as this game sails OVER this 54.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Memphis/UNLV FOX Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 56

Dan Mullen is an offensive-minded coach and that was certainly on display in his first season at UNLV last year.  The Rebels went 10-4 led by an offense that averaged 34.1 points per game and 446 yards per game.  They had a poor defense that allowed 28.0 points per game and 419 yards per game.

While the offense loses some pieces, I think it will be just as explosive thanks to the addition of Auburn transfer Jackson Arnold.  He was the 5th-ranked QB recruit in the country coming out of High School.  The competition was stiff in the SEC as he made 8 starts for the Tigers last season.  It will feel like a cake walk for Arnold with the competition he will face at UNLV in the Mountain West, starting with Memphis in this non-conference game.

This UNLV defense will be terrible again.  The Rebels lose seven of their top eight tacklers and return just three starts on defense.  They will be relying on an offense with an explosive running game with the dual-threat Arnold plus the return of RB Ja'Den Thomas (985 yards, 12 TD, 7.2/carry last season).  The offensive line will be a strength with the return of LT Will Thomas, C Austin Boyd, and bringing in talented Pitt and Baylor transfers.

Memphis always has a high-octane offense and that won't change with new head coach Charlie Huff.  The Tigers have scored at least 32.5 points per game in four consecutive seasons.  Huff brings in some talented transfers including QB Marcus Stokes, the Gulf South Conference Offensive Player of the Year at West Florida last season where he threw for 3,297 yards and 30 TD while also rushing for 367 yards and 10 scores.  Huff added a ton of talent at receiver with UNC, NC State and Mississippi State transfers.  They add in 6 full-time starters along the offensive line and 90 career starts between them.

Memphis was also solid defensively the last couple seasons but will take a step back this season.  That's because they lose all 11 starters on defense and each of their top 15 tacklers!  No question Huff has added some solid transfers on D including 4 with him from Southern Miss, but I think there will be some serious growing pains on this side of the ball early in the season.

UNLV plays on a fast track in the dome at Allegiant Stadium.  UNLV's six home games last season averaged a combined 66.5 points per game.  This total of 56 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Indiana/Miami National Championship No-Brainer on Indiana -7.5

Curt Cignetti is putting together the greatest 2-year turnaround in college football history.  He has proven last year's trip to the 12-team playoff was no fluke by going 15-0 this season and on the verge of winning the National Championship.  The Indiana Hoosiers aren't just winning, they are dominating opponents.

Indiana is outscoring opponents by 31.5 points per game during this 15-0 run.  They are outgaining opponents by 200.4 yards per game and 2.4 yards per play.  There is nothing fluky about this run, beating Oregon on the road 30-20 in the first meeting, upsetting Ohio State 13-10 in the Big Ten Championship Game and becoming the only team to win off a bye (1-7) in the history of the 12-team playoff when they crushed Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl.  They backed it up with a 56-22 win over Oregon in the semifinals.

Indiana held Ohio State to 58 rushing yards on 26 carries in the big Ten Championship Game and Alabama to 23 rushing yards on 17 carries in the Rose Bowl.  They gave up 93 rushing yards on 26 carries to Oregon.  They have allowed 93 or fewer rushing yards in 13 of their last 14 games.  They are elite against the run, making this a nightmare matchup for Miami, which needs to be able to run the ball to set up the pass.  They won't be able to against Indiana.

The Hurricanes were able to escape with a 31-27 win over Ole Miss in the semifinals after narrow wins over Ohio State and Texas A&M to start the playoff.  Several things happened in that game that I think will be problems for them in this game.  Injuries to Miami piled up in that Ole Miss game, penalties are a problem for them, and they are terrible on special teams.

Miami DB Xavier Lucas will miss the first half of this game after a targeting call against Ole Miss.  Damari Brown may still be out.  CB OJ Frederique played just seven snaps against Ole Miss and is injured.  Two freshmen in CB Ja'Boree Antoine and Chris Ewald will get a lot of playing time.  No question Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza can exploit this weak secondary and will.  He also gets the ball out quickly to negate Miami's biggest strength, which is its pass rush.  The Hurricanes were tired and beaten up along the defensive line against Ole Miss, too.  They only had one sack against the Rebels, who had their defense really on their heels in the 2H.

Miami has the 5th-most penalty yards in FBS, while Indiana has the 6th-fewest.  Mario Cristobal has notoriously been bad in this department as his teams have ranked 85th or worse in penalties in five consecutive seasons.  Miami's lack of discipline will be a problem here.  The Hurricanes had 10 penalties for 74 yards against Ole Miss and could have had even more with a late hit OB not called.  Cignetti has the Hoosiers buttoned up and they will not beat themselves.  

The Hoosiers have been great on special teams, while the Hurricanes have been terrible and don't have a reliable kicker.  Carter Davis is 17-of-23 (73.9%) on the season and missed a key kick against Ole Miss.  And Indiana will hold them to FG's.  Prior to the Oregon game, the Hoosiers had allowed just 6 red zone TD's all season.  They allowed 3 against Oregon but mostly in garbage time.  So they have allowed just 9 red zone TD's all season, making them the best red zone defense in the country.

Miami is playing in its home stadium, but it will not feel like a home game.  Indiana fans will shell out the money to be in attendance for the biggest game in program history.  They will have at least half the stadium and I wouldn't be surprised if it feels like a home game for them with how rabid their fan base is.  They showed out for the Rose Bowl and the Peach Bowl, and they will show out for this game, too.  This has another Hoosiers blowout written all over it.  Bet Indiana Monday.

20* Oregon/Indiana Peach Bowl No-Brainer on Indiana -4

Curt Cignetti is putting together the greatest 2-year turnaround in college football history.  He has proven last year's trip to the 12-team playoff was no fluke by going 14-0 this season and on the verge of reaching the National Championship Game.  The Indiana Hoosiers aren't just winning, they are dominating opponents.

Indiana is outscoring opponents by 31.3 points per game during this 14-0 run.  They are outgaining opponents by 215.8 yards per game and 2.5 yards per play.  There is nothing fluky about this run, beating Oregon on the road 30-20 in the first meeting, upsetting Ohio State 13-10 in the Big Ten Championship Game and becoming the only team to win off a bye (1-7) in the history of the 12-team playoff when they crushed Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl last week.

Oregon has benefited from a soft schedule and some breaks to get here.  The Ducks only beat Group of 5 James Madison 51-34 in the playoff opener while allowing a whopping 509 total yards.  And last week's 23-0 win over Texas Tech was very misleading.  The Red Raiders gave that game away by committing four turnovers.  Their rust showed, especially QB Behren Morton.  The Big 12 as a whole was down this season, so that win over the Big 12's best isn't that impressive.

Now they must face the Big Ten's best, a team they already got dominated by at home.  Not only did Indiana beat Indiana 30-20, they did so by overcoming a pick-6 by Heisman Trophy QB Fernando Mendoza.  The Hoosiers held the Ducks to just 267 total yards in the win.  It was an even more dominant result than the final score showed, and it was in Autzen Stadium on the road.  Now the Hoosiers will be playing in Atlanta here in the Peach Bowl and will no question have the home-field advantage with more fans in attendance.

Indiana held Ohio State to 58 rushing yards on 26 carries in the big Ten Championship Game and Alabama to 23 rushing yards on 17 carries in the Rose Bowl.  They have allowed 92 or fewer rushing yards in 12 of their last 13 games.  They are elite against the run, making this a nightmare matchup for Oregon, which needs to be able to run the ball to set up the pass.  They won't be able to against Indiana.  The Hoosiers have ran the ball on everyone, and they will dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.  Bet Indiana Friday.

25* CFB Playoff GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami -3

Miami has been an absolute wagon down the stretch with six straight wins with four of those coming by 17 points or more.  The defense has been elite holding opponents to 9.7 points per game in those six games.  That includes their 10-3 road win at Texas A&M in the first round of the 12-team playoff.  The Hurricanes outgained the Aggies 5.7 to 4.3 yards per play in the win.

If everyone though that was a fluke, they proved them wrong again by manhandling Ohio State on both sides of the football in a dominant 24-14 win in the quarterfinals.  They held the Buckeyes to 45 rushing yards on 24 attempts, an average of just 1.9 yards per carry.  

Miami may have the best defensive line in the country.  The Hurricanes rank 5th allowing 84 rushing yards per game and 6th at 2.8 yards per carry.  They are 3rd in the country averaging 3.3 sacks per game.  They had 7 sacks against Texas A&M and 5 sacks against Ohio State.

The Hurricanes rode Mark Fletcher to 172 rushing yards in a windy day in College Station against Texas A&M.  He had 90 rushing yards on 19 carries against Ohio State.  After facing those two defenses and handling them, the Hurricanes actually take a big step down in class here against this suspect Ole Miss defense.

The Rebels rank 38th in total defense at 340.1 yards per game, 41st at 5.2 yards per play, 62nd allowing 146.1 rushing yards per game and 49th allowing 4.2 yards per carry.  Georgia's RB Nate Frazier had 86 rushing yards on 15 carries before leaving with an injury.  That really changed the game and allowed the Rebels to come back in the 2H as they finally got a few stops on Georgia in a 39-34 upset win.

Georgia's weakness was getting after the opposing QB with pressure, and Ole Miss was able to take advantage of it with Trinidad Chambliss making all kinds of plays off script deep down the field.  Those plays won't be there against this Miami defense, which will get home much more than Georgia and Tulane did.  And Miami's defense will be the difference in this game.

Carson Beck will have his best game of the playoffs yet as he takes a big step down in class here against this Ole Miss defense.  Beck hasn't had to do much because the Hurricanes have been so dominant with their defense and running game.  They will control the game again for four quarters with their defense and running game, and Beck will make the plays necessary which he has thus far.  

Ole Miss is dealing with a ton of distractions with coaches spending time game-planning for the playoffs while also recruiting at LSU for Lane Kiffin.  Several of their coaches won't be allowed to coach in this game, and really only offensive coordinator Charlie Weiss is still with the team.  They've had extra time coming into their last two games, but now they are on a short week here after playing last Thursday, while Miami has an extra day of prep playing last Wednesday.  That's a small advantage that could make a big difference in this game.

I also think Ole Miss despite being distracted has benefited from having played Tulane twice AND Georgia twice.  They already had the scouting reports on both teams, which made the game planning much easier.  They have nothing on Miami and only 6 days to get ready for the Hurricanes.  They won't be ready for the physicality the Hurricane brings as they will dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.  Their defense is also great at taking away the quick passing game that Ole Miss relies on.  The Hurricanes are the better, more rested and focused team and it will show on the field in the Fiesta Bowl.  Bet Miami Thursday.

20* Navy/Cincinnati Liberty Bowl No-Brainer on Navy -4

For starters, Service Academies like Navy are 19-3 SU & 19-3 ATS in their last 22 bowl games.  These service academies never have any players opt out and they always show up with their best effort in these bowl games.  That will be no different for Navy in the Liberty Bowl today.

The Bearcats don't want to be here.  They lost four straight games to close out the season when they were in contention for a Big 12 title.  They have had at least a dozen players opt out of this bowl game, most notably QB Brendan Sorsby, who is listed by 247Sports as the top-ranked QB in the transfer portal.

Sorsby is completing 61.5% of his passes for 2,786 yards with a 26-to-5 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 580 yards and 9 TD as one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country.  It's a major blow as now the Bearcats are down to four-year senior Brady Lichtenberg who has 333 career passing yards and freshman Samaj Jones, who has just 2 pass attempts this season.

The losses are huge on defense, where almost the entire secondary is following CB coach Eddie Hicks to Arkansas.  The Bearcats will be without S Christian Harrison (66 taclkes, 1 INT), S Trevon Gola-Collard (71 tackles, 3 PD), S Jiquan Sanks (50 tackles, 4 PD), CB Logan Wilson (35 taclkles, 6 PD), DE Mikah Coleman (33 tackles), CB Ormaine Arnold (16 tackles, 3 PD), S Tayden Barnes (25 tackles) and a couple other depth pieces.  DE Dontay Corleone has declared for the NFL Draft.

The weakness of this Cincinnati defense is against the run where they allow 173.5 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry.  The Bearcats allowed 228 or more rushing yards in four of their final six games.  That's bad news for them going up against this potent Navy triple-option, which ranks 1st in the country at 289.3 rushing yards per game and 4th at 5.8 per carry.

Navy Senior QB Blake Horvath wants to finish his career strong as arguably the best QB in program history.  He has rushed for 1,147 yards and 15 TD, but he's the best passer they have ever had completing 61.1% of his passes for 1,472 yards and 10 TD this season.  He will have a huge game as the Midshipmen run away with this one.  Bet Navy Friday.

25* CFB Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas State -14

Texas State fought hard down the stretch to make a bowl game after a 3-6 start.  They went 3-0 in their final three games with blowout wins over Southern Miss 41-14, LA-Monroe 31-14 and South Alabama 49-26.  Now they will be extra motivated to finish it off with a winning record.

Texas State is arguably the best 6-6 team in the country when you look at the numbers.  The Bobcats went 1-4 in games decided by 7 points or fewer, so they were very close to being a 10-2 team.  Their only two blowout losses came to Arizona State and James Madison, one of the best teams in the Big 12 plus a playoff team.

Texas State averages 476.3 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play on offense while allowing 399.4 yards per game and 5.7 per play on defense.  The Bobcats are outgaining opponents by 77 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play, which is the sign of a team that is much better than 6-6.

I'll gladly lay the big number here with the Bobcats because they have an elite, up-tempo offense and will keep pouring on the points for four quarters.  They rank 12th in scoring offense at 36.1 points per game, 8th in total offense at 476.3 yards per game and 16th at 6.7 per play.  They don't have anyone significant in the transfer portal.

Rice only got an invite to this bowl game with a 5-7 record because other teams opted out.  I don't think the Owls even want to be here.  The Owls started 3-1 but dropped six of their final eight games, including blowout losses to North Texas 56-24 and South Florida 52-3 in their final two games.

QB Chase Jenkins hit the transfer portal, a player this putrid Rice offense could not afford to be without.  He threw for 1,025 yards with a 9-to-2 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 531 yards and five scores.  His dual-threat ability was the only thing saving this offense.  Even with Jenkins, the Owls ranks 112th in scoring offense at 19.8 points per game, 108th in total offense at 311.2 yards per game and 130th at 4.6 yards per play.  They have no chance to keep up with Texas State in this one.

Making matters worse for the offense is they will be without second-leading receiver Drayden Dickmann (37 receptions, 323 yards, 3 TD) and RB Daelen Alexander (392 yards, 3 TD).  The Owls also lost to UTSA by 48 and Memphis by 24 down the stretch.  They allowed 34 or more points in five of their final six games.  They are prone to getting blown out, and they will get blown out by a better, more motivated Bobcats team today.  Bet Texas State Friday.

15* Ole Miss/Georgia Sugar Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Georgia -6

This will be a rematch from a 43-35 home win by Georgia over Ole Miss on October 18th.  Georgia didn't punt once, outgained Ole Miss 510 to 351, or by 159 total yards, and made the 2H adjustments which they have been doing all season to stymie the Ole Miss offense.  Now having seen that offense and with extra prep time, I fully expect Kirby Smart to come up with the proper game plan to slow it down again in the rematch.

That 2H performance against Ole Miss propelled Georgia to a big finish to the season.  Gunnar Stockton went 26-of-31 passing for 289 yards and 4 TD, while also rushing for 59 yards and a score in the win.  And while I trust Stockton and this offense to have another big game in the rematch, it's the improvement of this Georgia defense that has me really high on this team in this matchup.

The Bulldogs have allowed a total of just 70 points in six games since beating Ole Miss, an average of just 11.7 points per game.  They held Texas to 10 points, Charlotte to 3, Georgia Tech to 9 and Alabama to 7 in their last four games coming in.  You could argue the Bulldogs are playing as well as anyone in the country defensively right now.

While Ole Miss has one of the best offenses in the country, the Rebels have a suspect defense that won't allow them to compete for four quarters with Georgia.  They rank 40th in total defense at 43rd at 5.3 yards per play allowed.  They are 64th in rushing defense allowing 147.8 yards per game and 70th at 4.3 yards per carry allowed.  Georgia will get whatever it wants offensively, again.

Ole Miss was able to handle Tulane 41-10 at home in the playoff opener.  But that game was much closer than the final score would indicate.  Ole Miss allowed 421 total yards to Tulane and only outgained them by 76 yards for the game.  The Rebels were fine without head coach Lane Kiffin for that game, but I don't trust their staff in key moments in this game against Georgia.

Many of the coaches on this staff will be joining Kiffin at LSU once this season is over.  They have been going back and forth between Ole Miss and LSU with one foot out the door.  That can only be a distraction.  Plus, new head coach Pete Golding hasn't been in this position before and will be making some tough decisions against Georgia that I just don't know if he's ready for.  I know Kirby Smart will be ready for it.  Bet Georgia Thursday.

15* Alabama/Indiana Rose Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -7

If Alabama had the stats Indiana has and vice versa, Alabama would be a double-digit favorite over Indiana.  But because of their names on their jerseys and the failure for most to believe what Indiana is doing, we are getting the Hoosiers at a discount as only 7-point favorites over the Crimson Tide in the Rose Bowl.

Indiana proved itself worthy going on the road and beating Oregon by 10 and upsetting Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship on a neutral.  The Hoosiers have elite numbers, averaging 7.1 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.6 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.5 yards per play.

Alabama has weak numbers averaging 5.7 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.8 yards per play on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.9 yards per play.  And the Crimson Tide have gotten worse as the season has gone on when you dive into the numbers.

In their last five games, the Crimson Tide lost outright at home to Oklahoma before a cruising win over Eastern Illinois.  They were fortunate to beat Auburn, getting outgained 411 to 280 by the Tigers, or by 131 total yards.  They then lost 28-7 to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.  And although they beat Oklahoma 34-24 on the road in the rematch, it was the most misleading final of the first round.  They were outgained 362 to 260 by the Sooners, or by 102 yards.  They benefited from a pick-6 and two missed FG's by Oklahoma.

The most shocking stat about Alabama that gives them no chance here is rushing for 80 or fewer yards in five of their last seven games.  They were held to -3 rushing yards by Georgia and 28 rushing yards on 25 carries by Oklahoma in their last two games.  They cannot run the football, and being one-dimensional doesn't work against Indiana.  WR Ryan Williams has been a non-factor for Alabama, too.  

It's supposed to rain throughout the Rose Bowl, and not being able to run the ball will be a huge disadvantage for the Crimson Tide.  Indiana has tremendous balance ranking 11th in rushing at 221.2 yards per game and 46th in passing at 251.6 yards per game.  You can run on this Alabama defense, which ranks 27th at 120.6 rushing yards per game allowed.  You cannot run on this Indiana defense, which ranks 3rd allowing 77.6 rushing yards per game and just held Ohio State to 58 rushing yards in the Big Ten Championship Game.  They also held Oregon to 81 rushing yards on 30 carries, which were the two best rushing attacks they faced all season.  Bet Indiana Thursday.

20* Oregon/Texas Tech Orange Bowl No-Brainer on Texas Tech +2.5

Texas Tech has been disrespected all season.  The Red Raiders are 12-1 SU & 11-2 ATS this season as one of the most underrated teams in college football.  They continue to lack the respect they deserve as underdogs to Oregon in the Cotton Bowl.

The Red Raiders made the most out of their massive NIL fund and have some of the best talent in the country, which is why this is no fluke.  In particular, their defense is a juggernaut.  The Red Raiders rank 3rd in scoring defense at 10.9 points per game, 3rd in total defense at 254.4 yards per game and 3rd at 4.0 yards per play.

What I really like about this matchup against Oregon is the Red Raiders rank 1st in rushing yards per game allowed at 68.5 and 1st at 2.3 yards per rush allowed.  The Ducks need to be able to run the football to be successful, and the Red Raiders are going to shut down their running game and make Dante Moore try and beat them through the air.  They did the same thing in consecutive blowout wins against BYU, shutting down their running game and Bear Bachmeir couldn't beat them through the air.

I also think the ceiling for this Texas Tech offense is even higher than what we've seen all season simply because QB Behren Morton wasn't healthy, playing with a hairline fracture in his fibula.  He was in a walking boot most the season and only got in one practice each week in every game he started.  And in the only game they lost, Will Hammond was the QB against Arizona State, and the Sun Devils needed a lot of good fortune to beat them late in that game.

The 26-day layoff since the Big 12 Championship Game has done wonders for Morton.  He is out of his walking boot for the first time since suffering the injury.  "This whole bowl prep has been really good for me," Morton said. "I've been basically a hundred percent in practice as far as team reps. I haven't been able to do team reps really all season long. ... Just getting the body back to playing football again -- it's been a while since I've gotten to do that."

"Staying in a boot the whole entire week, not getting to practice, then taking the boot off on Saturday and getting to play, it was not fun at all," said Morton, who said coach Joey McGuire granted him one day of practice prior to the Big 12 title game against BYU.

The Ducks lost both coordinators to coaching jobs which is a distraction in bowl prep.  Dan Lanning has yet to win a big game and time and time again comes up short in key moments of close games.  He is a great recruiter and motivator, but he hasn't proven himself as a great game manager yet.

Against the four best defenses Oregon faced this season in Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa and Wisconsin, the Ducks were held to an average of 20 points per game, 300 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play.  Their offense can be stopped, and their defense certainly isn't as good as Texas Tech.  That was evident when they allowed 509 total yards to James Madison in their 51-34 home win in the first round of the college football playoff.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Texas Tech Thursday.

20* Miami/Ohio State Cotton Bowl No-Brainer on Miami +9.5

Ohio State is getting too much respect for winning the national title last season.  It's very hard to go back-to-back, and we saw chinks in their armor in a loss to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us here is asking too much as this is a much more evenly-matched game than this line would indicate.

Miami has been an absolute wagon down the stretch with five straight wins with four of those coming by 17 points or more.  The defense has been elite holding opponents to 8.8 points per game in those five games.  That includes their 10-3 road win at Texas A&M in the first round of the 12-team playoff.  The Hurricanes outgained the Aggies 5.7 to 4.3 yards per play in the win.

Ohio State benefited from a very easy schedule.  In their two biggest step up games against Texas and Indiana, they were outgained 376 to 203 by the Longhorns, or by 173 total yards.  They were also outgained 342 to 324 by the Hoosers, or by 18 yards.  They were held to 58 rushing yards on 26 carries by Indiana.

Miami may have the best defensive line in the country and can shut down that Ohio State rushing attack as well.  The Hurricanes rank 7th allowing 87 rushing yards per game and 9th at 2.9 yards per carry.  They are 6th in the country averaging 3.2 sacks per game, and they will get after the overrated Julian Sayin, who did not perform well in those Texas and Indiana games.

The Hurricanes rode Mark Fletcher to 172 rushing yards in a windy day in College Station against Texas A&M.  They will get him going again, and the conditions will be much more favorable for QB Carson Beck indoors to have a better game here.  I trust his experience and trust him to make the right plays against this vaunted Ohio State defense to keep the Hurricanes in this game for four quarters.

The total has been set around 40 for this game so it is expected to be a defensive battle.  Getting 9.5 points in a game with such a low total is a tremendous value.  I think this game is much closer than the odds suggest, and it would take a couple catastrophic mistakes from Miami to get blown out here.  Player for player, the Hurricanes are one of the few teams in the country that has the talent to match the Buckeyes.  Bet Miami Wednesday.

15* Michigan/Texas Citrus Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Michigan +7.5

This is more of a fade of Texas than it is a play on Michigan.  The Longhorns made the 12-team playoff semifinals each of the last two seasons.  They felt slighted that they didn't get in this season, and I just don't think they care at all about the Citrus Bowl.

That's evident by the alarming amount of opt-outs and transfers the Longhorns have leading into this bowl game.  They will be without seven of their top 11 defenders in terms of snap count.  They will be without S Michael Taaffe (70 tackles, 2 INT), LB Liona Lefau (68 tackles), CB Malik Muhammad (30 tackles, 2 INT), CB Jaylon Guilbeau (40 tackles, 1 INT), LB Anthony Hill (70 tackles, 4 sacks, 2 INT), EDGE Trey Moore (34 tackles, 3 sacks) and EDGE Ethan Burke (40 tackles, 3 sacks) and S Derek Williams Jr. (23 tackles).  That also means they will be without eight of their top 13 tacklers.

Offensively, the Longhorns will be without their top three RB's, OL Connor Stroh and WR DeAndre Moore (38 receptions, 532 yards, 4 TD).  Texas fired defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski as well.  The Longhorns are a mess heading into this bowl game, and they shouldn't be favored by more than a TD against a Michigan team that will have almost all hands on deck.

Interim head coach Biff Poggi has done a great job of keeping this team together amidst the Sherrone Moore scandal.  Head head coach Kyle Whittingham was able to convince most of these players to stay, including 5-star QB Byrce Underwood, who will play in the Citrus Bowl.  In fact, the Wolverines are only expected to be without 3 starters in EDGE Derrick Moore, LB Jaishawn Barham and LG Giovanni El-Hadi as all three prepare for the NFL Draft.  Everyone made the trip to Orlando except the three opt-outs and expect a very full roster.

Poggi went 2-0 as head coach taking over for a suspended Moore this season.  The players love him and will play hard for him, and motivation is everything in bowl games.  "I was kind of stunned for a while," Wolverines linebacker Cole Sullivan said. "I didn't know what to think. But at the end of the day, we're still the same team. One person doesn't define who we are. I'm not going to let what happened define me. And I know the rest of the team isn't also going to let that happen."

The Big Ten is 6-1 SU against the SEC over the last two seasons in bowl games.  I think the Big Ten takes more pride in these head-to-head matchups because everyone around the country claims the SEC is better.  They take it personal, and Michigan will take pride in trying to knock off Texas in the Citrus Bowl as well.  Bet Michigan Wednesday.

20* Iowa/Vanderbilt NYE Early ANNIHILATOR on Iowa +4.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are like a service academy.  They are always going to show up in bowl games with basically all hands on deck and minimal opt outs.  That's the kind of program they run at Iowa, and that's the kind of team you want to back in bowl season.  They have zero opt outs this season with all hands on deck.

“They love playing together, and they couldn't imagine being out there without the guy next to him, and it's such a unbelievable bond," offensive coordinator Tim Lester said of his Hawkeyes team.

"It's what football's supposed to be like. And I don't even think it crossed anyone's mind. We’re all going out there, we're going to go out there and play together. That's the program that coach (Ferentz) runs. And it's awesome to be a part of.”

Iowa may be the best 8-4 team in the country.  The Hawkeyes' four losses this season all came by 5 points or fewer and to Top 20 teams at the time they played them.  They were actually tied or leading in the 4th quarter of all four of those losses, too.  That includes a 5-point loss to Indiana and a 2-point loss to Oregon, two playoff teams with a legit shot to win the national title.

I question Vanderbilt's motivation for this bowl game after the Commodores thought they'd have a shot at winning a national title, too.  Instead, they were left out of the 12-team playoff despite a 10-2 record in what is perceived as the best conference in football in the SEC.  If Alabama or Georgia were 10-2 with the same schedule, they would have gotten in.  But because they are lowly Vanderbilt, they did not get in.

I know the Commodores have very few opt outs, but the one they do have is a big one.  TE Eli Stowers (61 receptions, 765 yards, 4 TD) won the Mackey Award as the nation's best tight end.  He is by far Diego Pavia's favorite target.  Speaking of Pavia, he finished 2nd in Heisman voting and complained about voters afterwards.  I think his own team is getting tired of his act.  The Hawkeyes have extra motivation to get after him and shut him up as well.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Iowa Wednesday.

20* USC/TCU Alamo Bowl No-Brainer on TCU +6.5

The only reason this line is as high as it is is because TCU starting QB Josh Hoover has entered the transfer portal and will not play.  But the Horned Frogs look to have everyone else prepared to play in this game and finish the season strong.  And I don't think the loss of Hoover hurts TCU more than all the opt-outs for USC.  And I have no doubt TCU wants to be playing in this bowl game more than USC does, and motivation is everything in bowl season.

The Horned Frogs will be in good hands with 5th-year Senior QB Ken Seals.  He started 22 games in the SEC at Vanderbilt.  He has thrown for 4,413 yards and 29 TD in his career, and he played on some very bad Vanderbilt teams.  He has way more weapons around him at TCU to be successful, especially with leading WR Eric McCalister (64 receptions, 1,121 yards, 10 TD) and TE DJ Rogers (32 receptions, 300 yards, 2 TD) both electing to play in this bowl game.

Three key defenders in S Jamel Johnson (89 tackles, 4 INT), S Bud Clark (54 tackles, 4 INT) and LB Kaleb Elarms-Orr (Leading tackler, 119 tackles, 4 sacks) were all potential opt-outs who are all going to play in this game bowl.  I think the amount of participation they are getting from all of their top plays says everything you need to know about how much this Alamo Bowl in their home state of Texas means to this team.

"It feeds into next year. We want to leave this place better than how we found it," Johnson told the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. "It was us coming together one more time. It's just a blessing and something we wanted to do."

"We have a tremendous culture, and again, I think it revealed itself at the end of the year, in the fact that our guys played so hard down the stretch and it meant something to them," Dykes said of a team that finished the regular season with wins over then-No. 23 Houston and Cincinnati.

"Ken started 22 games in the SEC," Dykes said. "He's been a great teammate, a great practice player. Now he's going to get a chance to go perform on the big stage. He's excited about it, our team believes in him, and we've moving on quickly."

USC has a laundry list of opt-outs and will be a shell of itself for this bowl game.  The Trojans will be without their top three receivers in Makai Lemon (79 receptions, 1,156 yards, 11 TD), Ja'Kobi Lane (49 receptions, 745 yards, 4 TD) and TE Lake McRee (30 receptions, 450 yards, 4 TD).  Starting LT Elijah Paige and C Killian O'Connor, their two best linemen, won't play due to injury.  QB Jayden Maiava will play, but he has almost no chance to be successful behind this offensive line and without those weapons.

The Trojans lost defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn to Penn State, and he was the main reason they had an improved defense this season.  The Trojans will be without a handful of key defenders in LB Eric Gentry (76 taclkes, 3 sacks), S Bishop Fitzgerald (51 tackles, 5 INT), S Kamari Ramsey (27 tackles), EDGE Anthony Lucas (37 tackles, 3 sacks), DT Keeshawn Silver (17 tackles) and DE Jahkeem Stewart (18 tackles, 1.5 sacks).  What a mess.  Bet TCU Tuesday.

20* Tennessee/Illinois Music City Bowl No-Brainer on Illinois +3.5

After making the 12-team playoff last season, I question how motivated the Tennessee Volunteers will be to be playing in the Music City Bowl this season.  And given all their opt outs coming into this game, it's easy to see they will be a shell of their regular season selves for this game.

Tennessee will be without leading WR Chris Brazzell II (62 receptions, 1,017 yards, 9 TD) as he prepares for the NFL Draft.  They will also be without leading tackler LB Arion Carter (76 tackles), DE Joshua Josephs (33 tackles, 4 sacks) and CB Colton Hood (50 tackles, 1 INT).  They were already without their top two corners due to injury all season.

No question Illinois is excited to be here.  That is evident by their lack of opt outs as the only key guy they will be missing is LB Gabe Jacas.  QB Luke Altmyer (68.1% completions, 21-to-5 TD/INT ratio) and two of his favorite targets in WR Hank Beatty (Leading receiver, 64 receptions, 826 yards, 3 TD) and TE Tanner Arkin have decided to play in this game.

Altmyer recalls attending the 2011 Music City Bowl to root on his hometown team, Mississippi State. "These bowl games are very, very core memories for families, for myself, for the guys obviously," Altmyer said. "It's something I don't take for granted. It's going to stick with me forever, so I'm going to give it my best to make it a good one."

Altmyer and company should light up this short-handed Tennessee defense.  The Vols were last seen allowing 582 total yards in a 45-24 home loss to Vanderbilt in the regular season finale.  They didn't show up for that game, and I don't expect them to show up for this game, either.  Illinois will be the team playing with more intensity and that's everything in bowl season.  Bet Illinois Tuesday.

20* North Texas/San Diego State New Mexico Bowl No-Brainer on North Texas -6

North Texas should have almost all hands on deck for this bowl game.  That makes the Mean Green a potent team, one that came up just short of making the 12-team playoff.  Eric Morris wanted to coach the bowl game, but the rest of the staff remains intact for it so there still should be good chemistry heading into this game.

"These guys are locked in," North Texas interim coach Drew Svoboda said. "Initially, obviously, coming off a loss in the American Conference championship game, there was a lot of disappointment in that locker room. When we brought everybody back and had a chance to get all these guys together and talk about the goal and what's still in front of this football team, we realized they're excited to play."

The Mean Green are motivated to end a 7-game bowl losing streak with their last bowl win coming in 2013.  QB Drew Mestemaker led the nation with 4,129 yards and 31 TD, and RB Caleb Hawkins is a monster with 1,226 rushing yards and 23 TD, plus 345 receiving yards and another 3 scores.  They lead a Mean Green offense that ranks 1st in the country in scoring at 44.8 points per game and 1st in total offense at 504.3 yards per game.

Given all the guys San Diego State will be missing on offense, I give the Aztecs no chance of keeping up with the Mean Green.  QB Jayden Denegal had surgery at the end of the season and is out.  That leaves Central Michigan transfer Bert Emanuel Jr. at QB, and he has only attempts 9 passes all season.  Leading receiver Jordan Napier (48 receptions, 632 yards, 2 TD) is out, as is fellow WR Jacob Bostick.

The Aztecs to have a great defense, but they are likely going to be without CB Chris Johnson (48 tackles, 9 PD), LB Owen Chambliss (105 tackles, 4 sacks) and EDGE Trey White (43 tackles, 7 sacks).  Those are their three best defenders.  They are also without the architect of that defense in coordinator Rob Aurich, who left for the same job at Nebraska.  Rumors are Chambliss and White will both follow him to Nebraska, and Johnson is likely to sit out to prepare for the NFL Draft.

San Diego State ranks 106th in total offense at 341.8 yards per game this season.  This offense has been really poor down the stretch once injuries hit them.  The Aztecs have averaged just 16.3 points per game in their last four games and haven't topped 25 points in any of their last six games.  I just don't think they'll be able to keep up with the Mean Green, who are going to score.  Bet North Texas Saturday.

20* UConn/Army Fenway Bowl No-Brainer on Army -6.5

For starters, Service Academies like Army are 18-3 SU & 18-3 ATS in their last 21 bowl games.  These service academies never have any players opt out and they always show up with their best effort in these bowl games.  That will be no different for Army in the Fenway Bowl today.

UConn lost head coach Jim Mora to Colorado State.  Gone with him are so many key players.  They will be down four starting offensive linemen and QB Joe Fagnano, who was one of the best QB's in the country.  He completed 68.9% of his passes for 3,441 yards with a 28-to-1 TD/INT ratio this season.  The Huskies will be down to a 4th stringer at QB.

Army will run wild in the triple-option against this terrible UConn defense, which allows 185.5 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry this season.  The Huskies rank 114th against the run.  Army has a very good defense that ranks 45th in scoring at 22.1 points per game and 50th in total defense at 349.9 yards per game.  They are finally fully healthy on defense with the return of CB Justin Weaver and their top two interior defensive linemen.

I also like the fact that Army sits at 6-6 on the season.  There's a big difference between 7-6 and 6-7 as teams always want to finish with a winning record over a losing record.  It's not like they need the extra motivation, but they will easily be the more motivated team today, which is everything in bowl season.  Bet Army Saturday.

20* FIU/UTSA First Responder Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 59.5

Both teams are decimated by opt outs and injuries on defense.  Both teams have almost all hands on deck on offense.  This First Responder Bowl figures to be a shootout due to all the players that won't be playing on defense.  The forecast also favors a shootout with temps in the 70's, no wind and no precipitation.

FIU wil be without their entire secondary basically.  CB Brian Blades (26 tackles, 5 PD, 1 INT), CB Mister Clark (59 tackles, 13 PD, 3 INT), CB Victor Evans (42 tackles, 4 PD, 1 INT), FS Jessiah McGrew (67 tackles, 4 INT) are four starters who will all be out.  The Panthers should have all hands on deck on offense including both QB's and RB Owens (1,298 yards, 11 TD).

UTSA head coach Jeff Traylor said his defense will be without at least 6 or 7 starters.  But the offense is in much better shape led by QB Owen McCown, who is completing 67.7% of his passes for 2,695 yards and a 27-to-7 TD/INT ratio this season.

FIU is 3-1 OVER in its last four games overall going for 86 combined points with Middle Tennessee, 61 with Liberty and 72 with Sam Houston State.  UTSA is 5-1-1 OVER in its last seven games overall going for 82 combined points with ECU, 78 with USF, 74 with Tulane, 72 with North Texas and 74 with Rice.  This total is too short given all the opt outs defensively plus how these teams trended down the stretch.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Cal/Hawaii Xmas Eve Total DOMINATOR on OVER 50

The biggest reason I'm on the OVER in this game is due to Cal's change of philosophy since interim head coach Nick Rolovich took over.  The former Hawaii head coach is the offensive coordinator of the Golden Bears.  He has been going more up-tempo and pass-happy since taking over.

We really saw that play out in the regular season finale with the Golden Bears pulling the 38-35 upset of SMU for 73 combined points.  The Golden Bears ran 77 plays and put up 450 total yards on a solid SMU defense.  The threw 40 times against SMU and 50 times against Stanford the game prior.

I also like the OVER because neither team can run the football, so this game will be played through the air.  Cal averages 79.8 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry, while Hawaii averages 104.9 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry.  Both coaches know they are almost wasting downs trying to run the football at this point.

The good news is both offenses can rely on reliable QB's to move the ball through the air.  Jaron-Kaewe Sagapolutele is completing 63.5% of his passes for 3,109 yards with a 17-to-9 TD/INT ratio this season for Cal.  The native of Hawaii will be looking to show out in front of all his fans back at home.  He's actually good friends with Hawaii QB Micah Alejado, who is completing 65.9% of his passes for 2,832 yards with a 21-to-9 TD/INT ratio this season.

Both defenses leave a lot to be desired.  Both are allowing more yards per play than their opponents average on offense.  Leading tackler LB Cade Uluave (88 tackles, 3 sacks) and top CB Hezekiah Masses (43 tackles, 12 PD, 5 INT) are both opt-out candidates for the Golden Bears.  Hawaii has two key injuries on defense in LB Jamih Otis (59 tackles) and CB Virdel Edwards (26 tackles, 5 PD).  

I expect both offenses to be ahead of both defenses in this fast-paced shootout on Christmas Eve where both QB's put on a show for their home fans.  Cal and its opponents have combined for at least 52 points in six of its last eight games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Cal/Hawaii Xmas Eve No-Brainer on Hawaii ML -110

For starters, Hawaii is 13-0 ATS in its last 13 home games.  The Rainbow Warriors have one of the best home-field advantages in the country.  They will have no problem getting up for this standalone game on Christmas Eve to beat a Power 4 opponent in Cal.

These teams have two common opponents in Stanford and San Diego State.  Hawaii beat Stanford 23-20 and San Diego State 38-6, while Cal lost to San Diego State 34-0 and lost to Stanford 31-10.  Those results against common opponents show that the Rainbow Warriors are clearly the better team.

Hawaii has blowout home wins over Utah State by 18, San Diego State by 32 and Wyoming by 20 in its last three home games.  The Rainbow Warriors are outscoring opponents by 15.4 points per game and outgaining them by 103 yards per game at home this season.

While Hawaii has pretty much all hands on deck with the exception of WR Jackson Davis to the transfer portal, Cal is in limbo with head coach Justin Wilcox fired and Oregon defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi will take over next season.

Leading tackler LB Cade Uluave (88 tackles, 3 sacks) and top CB Hezekiah Masses (43 tackles, 12 PD, 5 INT) are both opt-out candidates for the Golden Bears.  TE Mason Mini (35 receptions, 387 yards, 4 TD) and WR Jordan King (22 receptions, 267 yards, 2 TD) are injured.  The Golden Bears cannot run the ball averaging just 79.8 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry this season.  That puts a lot of pressure on QB Sagapolutele to make plays.

I'll gladly back the team in the better mindset knowing head coach Timmy Chang and QB Micah Alejado will return next season to lead this squad.  Alejado was one of the best freshman QB's in the country this season, completing 65.9% of his passes for 2,832 yards with a 21-to-9 TD/INT ratio this season.  He should have his way with this Cal defense.  Bet Hawaii on the money line Wednesday.

25* CFB Bowl TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Western Kentucky/Southern Miss OVER 57.5

Two up-tempo teams who are much better on offense than they are on defense square off in the New Orleans Bowl Tuesday night.  This bowl game will be played indoors on the fast track at the Superdome and it will be an absolute shootout.

Southern Miss ranks 11th in tempo snapping the ball every 23 seconds.  The Eagles lose head coach Charlie Huff to Memphis, but offensive coordinator Blake Anderson will coach the bowl game and has been hired as their head coach next season.  The Eagles had almost no opt-outs and the only two players that could miss are both on defense in S Corey Myrick (82 tackles) and CB Josh Moten (57 tackles, 5 INT).

This Southern Miss defense has been getting absolutely shredded down the stretch.  The Eagles allowed 28 points and 428 total yards to one of the worst offenses in the country in Troy in their regular season finale.  They allowed 42 points and 449 total yards to a poor South Alabama team the game prior.  And they allowed 41 points and 449 yards to Texas State.

Senior QB Braylon Braxton was banged up down the stretch, so getting this extra time off to recover has been huge.  Braxton is completing 65.2% of his passes for 2,795 yards with a 23-to-7 TD/INT ratio on the season.  He leads a Southern Miss offense that is averaging 29.8 points per game on the season.

"He looks better now than he has looked in a very long time," Anderson said of Braxton. "I'm very encouraged that we can open things back up. What makes Braylon so hard to defend is his ability to create. We had to be very, very vanilla with what we were doing. We weren't as effective as we needed to be. I expect him to be much more like himself (against the Hilltoppers)."

Western Kentucky ranks 33rd in tempo snapping the ball every 24.7 seconds.  The Hilltoppers are scoring 29.8 points per game and averaging 405.4 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  I don't think there's a drop off from either QB as Maverick McIvor (67.3% completions) and Rodney Tisdale (67.7% completions) both played well.  McIvor is healthy enough to play for the bowl game, and the Hilltoppers will have the element of surprise and may even play both.

This WKU defense is atrocious.  In their regular season finale with a trip to the C-USA title game at stake, they lost a 37-34 shootout to Jacksonville State for 71 combined points where they allowed a whopping 515 total yards to the Gamecocks.  They also allowed 539 total yards to a very bad Middle Tennessee team the conference game prior in a 42-26 shootout for 68 combined points.  This total of 57.5 is too short as both offenses will have their way with both defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* James Madison/Oregon CFB Playoff No-Brainer on James Madison +21.5

There's a 60% chance of rain in Eugene Saturday night.  That will help keep this game on the ground and keep scoring suppressed.  The total has already been bet down to 47 as of this writing, and in what is expected to be a lower-scoring game, that benefits the underdog especially one catching 21.5 points with that small of a total.

Oregon has no motivation to get margin here.  It's just win and get out.  Oregon needs to be able to run the football to be effective offensively, and few defenses in the country are equipped to stop the run quite like this James Madison crew.  Oregon is 12th in the country at 218.4 rushing yards per game.

The reason James Madison is here is because of its defense.  The Dukes rank 8th in scoring defense at 15.8 points per game, 2nd in total defense at 247.6 yards per game and 4th at 4.1 yards per play.  But particularly helpful for this matchup is the Dukes ranking 2nd in the country against the run at 76.2 yards per game and 3rd at 2.5 yards per carry.  They are legitimately one of the best run defenses in the country and can stack up against any of the best Power 5 teams against the run.

I also like that James Madison is a methodical, run-heavy offense that will try and shorten this game simply by taking every second off the clock they can before they snap the football.  It's their best path to being competitive and they know it.  The Dukes rank 122nd in tempo snapping the ball every 28.8 seconds.  That is really slow when you consider they were going for style points the entire 2H of the season on offense.  

Oregon is in no hurry either, ranking 103rd in tempo snapping the ball every 27.7 seconds.  I can see them sitting on the ball in the 2H.  Getting 21.5 points here in what will be a defensive battle is tremendous value.  James Madison held Louisville to just 264 total yards on the road back when Louisville was fully healthy early in the season.  They can hang with Oregon and will be out to prove it.  They aren't just happy to be here, especially with all of the talk about how the Group of 5 teams don't belong leading up to this game.  

Oregon's offensive and defensive coordinators both took head coaching jobs elsewhere.  Both will remain with the team for the playoff run, but you know their entire focus is not with the team as they are trying to recruit players for their new schools.  It has to at least be a little bit of a distraction for both coordinators at the very least.  Bet James Madison Saturday.

25* CFB Playoff TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Miami/Texas A&M UNDER 51.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 51.5 ticket between Miami and Texas A&M Saturday in College Station.  There will be 15-25 MPH sustained winds for this one with gusts even higher.  That will make it very difficult for both passing offenses to be effective, and the passing offenses are the weaknesses of both of these teams anyway if they have one.

Miami has been led all season by one of the most elite, talented defenses in the country, especially along the front seven.  The Hurricanes rank 6th in scoring defense at 13.8 points per game, 10th in total defense at 277.8 yards per game, 8th at 4.5 yards per play, 7th in rushing defense at 86.8 yards per game and 10th at 2.9 yards per carry allowed.

The only two games Miami lost were due to turnovers by QB Carson Beck.  He threw 2 interceptions in a 26-20 (OT) road loss at SMU.  He threw 4 INT in a 24-21 home loss to Louisville.  You can bet Miami is going to try and be more conservative with him in this game especially given the forecast because they don't want him to lose the game for them knowing they have a championship-caliber defense.

Texas A&M ranks 37th in scoring defense at 21.9 points per game, 17th in total defense at 309.8 yards per game and 34th at 5.0 yards per play.  The Aggies are also 36th allowing 127.1 rushing yards per game.  They are elite against the pass at 19th at 182.8 yards per game allowed.  Miami would be smart to try and keep the ball on the ground more against this defense.

Texas A&M is 28th in rushing offense at 192.7 yards per game.  They get RB Le'Veon Moss back from injury as he has been out since Week 7.  They are going to want to utilize him.  It looks like both teams are getting reinforcements on defense for this one.  CB Keionte Scott (44 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 INT), NT David Blay (15 tackles) and CB OJ Frederique (10 tackles, 5 PD) are all expected to return from injury for Miami.  S Bryce Anderson and LB Scooby Williams should both be back from injury for the Aggies as well.

Miami and its opponents have combined for 51 or fewer points in nine consecutive games heading into this game, making for a 9-0 system backing the UNDER.  That includes Miami scoring several times late in games looking for style points and they still didn't top 51 combined points in any of their last nine games.  

Texas A&M and its opponents have combined for 51 or fewer points in four of its last five home games.  The only exception was that wild game against South Carolina where they fell behind 30-3 and had to play hurry-up to come back and win.  That's not going to happen here as this will likely be a tight game throughout played close to the vest with the defenses ruling the day.  It's also a 12:00 EST early start time which I love for UNDERS.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.