15* Jazz/Pelicans NBA ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans -11

I'm willing to lay the big number with the New Orleans Pelicans tonight for several reasons.  For starters, the Pelicans are as healthy as they have been in a long time and are playing their best basketball of the season.

Indeed, the Pelicans are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming by a single point 120-119 as 14.5-point underdogs at Boston.  They upset the Bulls and 76ers on the road, and covered at home against Dallas and Utah.

The Jazz are a mess right now.  They are 1-5 SU in their last six games overall with their only victory coming at home by a single point over the hapless Brooklyn Nets 112-111.  Injuries and tanking are the biggest problem for the Jazz right now.

The Jazz are without four of their top five scorers in Makkanen (20.1 PPG), Sexton (18.3 PPG), Collins (17.9 PPG and Clarkson (16.0 PPG).  Sexton is only sitting out because is is almost 100% going to get traded before the deadline.

Sexton had 24 points in their 136-123 loss at New Orleans in their last game on January 17th.  So they won't have his production tonight, and the Pelicans actually are shorter favorites in the rematch after being 12-point favorites in that game.  There's value here on New Orleans even as a double-digit favorite.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

15* Suns/Cavs Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Phoenix +8

The Phoenix Suns are playing their best basketball of the season right now going 5-1 SU in their last six games overall with their only loss coming by 5 at Atlanta.  The Suns made a trade for Nick Richards and he had 21 points and 11 rebounds in his Phoenix debut last time out in a 125-121 road win at Detroit.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have actually lost two of their last four and are kind of hitting a wall after a blistering start tot he season.  They lost by 15 as 9-point home favorites to Indiana and by 20 at Oklahoma City.

A big reason for their struggles was losing C Evan Mobley (18.6 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 42.1% 3-pointers) in that loss to OKC.  Mobley is one of the most improved players in the NBA, especially with his ability to now step out and hit 3-pointers.  The Cavaliers miss him a lot with what he can do on both ends considering he's already one of the top defenders in the NBA.  Bet the Suns Monday.

20* Timberwolves/Grizzlies TNT No-Brainer on OVER 233.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace and 5th in offensive rating this season.  They will control the tempo playing at home today, and the key to their offense in JA Morant has been upgraded to probable.

The OVER is 6-1-1 in Grizzlies last eight games overall with 234 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  That includes their 127-125 road win at Minnesota on January 11th for 252 combined points.

It's not like the Grizzlies shot the lights out in that game either as they shot just 44% as a team on a whopping 108 attempts from the field.  Neither team shot better than 40% from 3-point range either, so it should be another shootout in the rematch that sails OVER this 233.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Rockets OVER 222

The OVER is 6-0-1 in Rockets last seven games overall with 228 or more combined points in all seven games, including 234 or more in six of them.  They are playing with a lot more tempo of late and it is paying off as the Rockets have scored at least 119 points in each of their last seven games.

The Detroit Pistons are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall including 237 combined points with Toronto, 243 with New York and 246 with Phoenix.  They scored at least 121 points in three of their last four.  This total of 222 is way too short given the way these two teams are trending.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wizards/Kings OVER 232.5

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  They are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall with 253 combined points with Phoenix, 226 with Minnesota, 231 with Oklahoma City and 236 with Golden State.

The Sacramento Kings are a dead nuts OVER team since switching to Doug Christie at head coach.  They are getting back to pace and space.  The OVER is 6-1 in Kings last seven games overall with 241 or more combined points in five of those seven games.  They just combined for 259 with Houston, 245 with Milwaukee and 243 with Chicago in their last three games coming in.

The Wizards and Kings have combined for at least 233 points in four of their last five meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night BLOWOUT on Denver Nuggets -7

The Denver Nuggets are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with all five wins coming by 11 points or more.  That includes a 133-113 win at Miami last time out.  A return to health is a big reason for their resurgence as Murray, Jokic and Gordon are all healthy right now.

The same cannot be said for the Magic, who are going through their worst stretch of the season due to all their injuries.  The Magic are just 6-11 SU in their last 17 games and 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games.  They were absolutely blown out in their last two games losing by 29 at Milwaukee and by 27 at Boston.

The Magic did get Paulo Banchero back from injury recently but he's not 100% yet and is on a minutes restriction.  He cannot make up for the losses of Franz Wagner (24.4 PPG), Jalen Suggs (16.4 PPG), Mo Wagner (12.9 PPG) and Goga Bitadze (9.6 PPG, 8.2 RPG).  The Magic are just so short-handed right now, and they stand no chance of being competitive against Denver today.  Bet the Nuggets Sunday.

20* Grizzlies/Spurs ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 239.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  The Mavericks and Spurs will be meeting for a 2nd time in 3 days in San Antonio tonight.  The first went over the total of 239.5 with a 129-115 victory by Memphis.  I expect the rematch to be much lower scoring.

Memphis shot 50% as a team including 42% from 3-point range in that first meeting.  San Antonio shot decent too at 45% overall and 37% from 3.  I suspect the shots won't come as easy now that these teams know how to defend one another.

It's worth noting JA Morant is questionable with a foot injury after going for 21 points and 12 assists in that first meeting.  If he doesn't play this total will crater, and I still like the UNDER even if he does.

That was a rare shootout in this series between the Grizzlies and Spurs.  In fact, the previous three meetings saw 187, 196 and 204 combined points.  These teams have combined for 228 or fewer points at the end of regulation in four of their last five meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Bulls OVER 235.5

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in pace and 23rd in defensive rating.  The Charlotte Hornets play a lot faster and are a lot more efficient on offense when La'Melo Ball (29.6 PPG, 7.5 APG) is on the court.  

Well, Ball is healthy and in the lineup now.  The Hornets went OVER the total in each of their last two games combining for 233 points with Phoenix and 229 with Utah, which was a depleted Utah team.

The Bulls are also getting healthy on the injury front with Coby White (18.5 PPG), Josh Giddey (11.6 PPG, 6.8 APG) and Ayo Dosunmu (12.5 PPG, 4.7 APG) all expected to play tonight.  And Lonzo Ball is healthy now and will get to face his brother tonight, which should be fireworks.

I nearly stayed off this total because the last seven meetings between the Bulls and Hornets have all stayed under this total.  But amazingly, La'Melo Ball didn't play in any of those seven games as he was not healthy.  With the Bulls' shift in offensive philosophy this season to play faster and shoot more 3's, this meeting with Ball in the lineup will be much higher scoring.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +11.5

The Toronto Raptors are healthy right now with the exception of Immanuel Quickley.  They have managed to win their last two games without him pulling the 104-101 upset as 5.5-point home dogs to Golden State and the 110-97 upset as 14.5-point home dogs to Boston.

The Raptors avenged an earlier blowout loss to the Celtics in their previous meeting, and now they'll be looking to avenge a 128-104 loss to the Bucks in their last meeting on January 6th.  I like them to stay within this inflated number tonight.

The Bucks are getting a lot of respect now after two blowout home wins over Sacramento and Orlando as short favorites.  They have won five of their last six games overall.  I don't see them being all that motivated to beat the Raptors again, and this is a clear letdown spot for them tonight.  Bet the Raptors Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Clippers -6.5

The Los Angeles Clippers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  But it's no big deal considering they blasted the Nets 126-67 at home for the largest blowout of the season.

Because of the blowout, the Clippers will still be fresh considering all five starters played less than 24 minutes.  This will also be the just 3rd game in 8 days for the Clippers, so they should still be fresh and ready to go.

The Blazers are 2-6 SU in their last eight games.  Their last two were very concerning as they lost by 18 at home to that same Nets team, and by 21 at home to Miami.  Injuries are starting to pile up for the Blazers as they are without Grant, Clingan and Tybulle.  Now Avdija is out, and he has been huge for them scoring at least 14 points in nine of his last 10 games.  He sat out that 132-114 loss to the Nets.

The Clippers own the Blazers going 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings with the lone loss coming by a single point.  That includes a 127-105 home win by the Clippers in their most recent meeting on December 3rd.  I expect them to win with room to spare again tonight.  Bet the Clippers Thursday.

20* Rockets/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 224

The Sacramento Kings just got De'Aaron Fox back from injury and they are a dead nuts OVER team with him in the lineup.  Now they should get Malik Monk back as well, and all of their important players are healthy for this showdown with the Houston Rockets.

The OVER is 5-1 in Kings last six games overall with 228 or more combined points in five of those six games.  They just combined for 245 points with Milwaukee last time out and 243 with Chicago the game prior.

The OVER is 4-0-1 in Rockets last five games overall with 234 or more combined points in all five games.  They Rockets are without one of their best defenders in Jabari Smith, and Amen Thompson is getting a lot more minutes in his place and it's an upgrade on offense.

The Rockets have scored at least 119 points in five consecutive games.  The Kings have scored at least 113 points in nine of their last 11 games.  The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings with 231 or more combined points in seven of them, and 239 or more in six of those.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Charlotte Hornets -5

The Charlotte Hornets recently got both La'Melo Ball and Brandon Miller back from injury.  Those two are huge for them as Ball averages 30 points and over 7 assists per game while Miler averages 21 points per game. 

The Hornets have gone 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games overall. They pulled the outright upset over the Suns and also took the Suns to the wire on the road in their last two games.

But this is as much a play against the Utah Jazz as anything. The Jazz will be without their top five scorers in Markkanen, Sexton, Collins, Clarkson and George Wednesday.  Those five all average at least 15.6 points per game and combine to average nearly 88 points per game.

That's a lot of production lost.  I don't see how they can keep this game competitive tonight without all these guys.  Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Jazz UNDER 221

The Utah Jazz will be without their top five scorers in Markkanen, Sexton, Collins, Clarkson and George Wednesday.  Those five all average at least 15.6 points per game and combine to average nearly 88 points per game.  That's a lot of production lost, and the Jazz will struggle offensively tonight.

The UNDER is 8-1 in Hornets last nine games overall with 223 or fewer combined points in eight of those nine games.  The Jazz and their opponents have gone for 220 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in four of their last five games, including 204 or fewer combined points in three of them.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +12.5

The Boston Celtics have been overvalued all season after winning the NBA title last season.  They are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.  In their last two games, the Celtics lost outright by 17 as 11.5-point home favorites to the Kings and only won by 1 over the Pelicans as 14.5-point home favorites.

Toronto has been much more competitive at home this season going 8-13 SU but 13-7-1 ATS.  They just upset the Warriors in their last home game.  I like them to stay within this inflated number tonight.

The Raptors haven't lost by more than 12 points in any of their last seven home meetings with Boston.  That makes for a 7-0 system backing Toronto pertaining to this 12.5-point spread.  Bet the Raptors Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Celtics/Raptors OVER 229.5

The Toronto Raptors rank 9th in pace and 27th in defensive rating so they profile as an OVER team. The Raptors are fully healthy with the exception of Immanuel Quickley. They will control the tempo playing at home and push the pace.

The Celtics are also fully healthy and rank 2nd in offensive rating.  They are tough to tame on that end with all their firepower when healthy.  Boston went for 239 combined points with the Pelicans last time out.

Toronto went for 237 combined points with Detroit & 258 with Cleveland in two of their last three games.  This total just feels a little short given how healthy both teams are right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Nuggets/Mavs TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 233

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Mavericks and Nuggets.  Points will be very hard to come by in the rematch with these teams so familiar with one another as this is actually their 4th and final meeting of the season now.

The total closed 232 in that first meeting and the Nuggets won 112-101 for just 213 combined points.  The Nuggets actually shot well from the floor too at 49%, while the Mavericks shot 41% overall and 35% from 3.

No question the Mavericks could see some positive shooting regression with the chance that Kyrie Irving returns from an illness, but they are still without Luka Doncic.  I don't think the Mavs will be hitting on all cylinders offensively tonight by any means.

The Mavs have been relying on defense without their stars as the UNDER is 3-1 in their last four games overall with 228 or fewer combined points in all four games.  The UNDER is 4-2 in Nuggets last six games overall with 229 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in all six games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Kings/Bucks OVER 228

The Sacramento Kings have De'Aron Fox back and healthy right now and they are rolling offensively with him in the lineup.  The OVER is 4-1 in Kings last five games overall where they have scored at least 114 points in all five games, and 123 or more in four of them.

The Milwaukee Bucks have both Giannis and Lillard healthy right now and they are the keys to their success offensively.  The Bucks are also playing well on that end averaging 116.0 points per game in their last four games.  They are coming off 246 combined points with the Knicks in their last game.

I love OVERS in these non-conference games with teams that aren't familiar with one another because it tends to favor offense over defense.  Well, the OVER is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between the Kings and Bucks with 233 or more combined points in nine of those 10 games.  Enough said.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Hawks OVER 234

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and 21st in defensive rating.  They will be ready to run tonight after having the last four days off, and they will control the tempo playing at home.

The Suns have the Big 3 of Durant, Booker and Beal healthy right now and they thrive on offense when that's the case.  The Suns have scored 120, 114 and 123 points in their last three games coming in.  But this is a poor defensive team ranking 22nd in defensive rating this season.

The OVER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings between the Hawks and Suns.  They have combined for 238, 243 and 249 points in their last three meetings, and 232 or more points in nine of their last 11 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Grizzlies/Rockets OVER 235.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace and 5th in offensive rating despite battling injuries all season.  But now Morant, Jackson Jr. and Bane are all healthy and they are without one of their best defenders in Marcus Smart, making them even more of an OVER team.

This total of 235.5 is very low for a game involving the Grizzlies right now.  The OVER is 7-2 in Grizzlies last nine games overall with 229 or more combined points in eight of those nine games, including 234 or more in seven of them.

That 234-point effort came against the Rockets on January 9th, and now they play the Rockets again less than a week later.  But that game saw an unusual low-scoring 4th quarter with just 41 combined points in the 4th.  That's not going to happen again, and you can see the potential for this game to be even more high-scoring.

Houston shot 43% as a team in that game and 24-of-41 (59%) from the FT line as well.  Memphis shot just 31% from 3-point range and also missed 9 FT. Houston has gone for 234 or more combined points in three consecutive games now.  These teams have combined for at least 234 points in three consecutive meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Wizards OVER 222.5

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  The Wizards and their opponents have combined for at least 223 points in nine of their last 11 games overall.  This total of 222.5 is very low for a game involving the Wizards.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are coming off a 127-125 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies, who also like to play fast like the Wizards.  They have played a brutal schedule of opposing defensive teams with six of their last nine games coming against teams that rank Top 7 in defensive rating.  Now they get a reprieve here and will hang a big number on the Wizards to lead us to cashing this OVER 222.5 ticket.

The OVER is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings with 220 or more combined points in all 12 meetings, including 225 or more in 11 of their last 13 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Hornets/Suns NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 224

The Charlotte Hornets are an OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball (29.9 PPG, 7.3 APG) is on the court.  He is healthy and on the court right now for the Hornets, and so is Brandon Miller (21.2 PPG).  The Hornets have battled injuries all season but are about as healthy as they have been all year right now.

The Hornets also come in on four days' rest, so they have a lot of energy and will be looking to push the pace today behind Ball.  I think we are going to get a shootout with the Suns, who are also fully healthy right now with Durant, Beal, Booker and Nurkic all on the court.

The Suns have gone for 123 and 114 points in their last two games with all of these guys.  They will be looking to avenge a 115-104 loss at Charlotte on the 2nd of a back-to-back on January 7th.  It took a miracle to keep that game under the 225.5-point total.

Indeed, the Suns shot 39-of-92 (42%) from the field and 8-of-33 (24%) from 3-point range in that game while the Hornets shot 38-of-98 (39%) from the field and 13-of-47 (28%) from 3-point range.  It still saw 219 combined points.  I have to think both teams will shoot much better in the rematch as they cannot possibly shoot any worse.  It was played at a fast pace and this one will be, too.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Thunder/Wizards OVER 231

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  They host an Oklahoma City Thunder team that also likes to play fast ranking 9th in pace and 7th in offensive rating.

This has been a very high-scoring series.  The OVER is a perfect 6-0 in the last six meetings with 228 or more combined points in all six meetings, including 237 or more combined points in five of those six.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Mavs UNDER 231

The Dallas Mavericks are without their two best players in Doncic (28.1 PPG) and Irving (24.3 PPG).  Points are going to be hard to come by for the Mavericks until these two return, and they are going to have to rely a lot more on defense to stay competitive.

They have done a good job of that beating the Lakers 118-97 for 215 combined points and the Blazers 117-111 for 228 combined points in their last two games without them.  The UNDER is 4-2 in Mavericks last six gmaes overall with 228 or fewer combined points in five of those six games.

The Nuggets have their three best players listed as questionable in Jokic (31.6 PPG), Murray (19.0 PPG) and Gordon (13.7 PPG) tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, so don't be surprised if any of these guys sit, especially Murray who got injured last night in a 124-105 win over the Nets for 229 combined points.  

The Nuggets and their opponents have gone for 229 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in each of their last five games.  This is an early 3:10 EST tip and these games tend to be lower scoring as NBA teams aren't used to playing this early in the day.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Grizzlies/Timberwolves OVER 228.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace and 5th in offensive rating despite battling injuries all season.  But now Morant, Jackson Jr. and Bane are all healthy and they are without one of their best defenders in Marcus Smart, making them even more of an OVER team.

This total of 228.5 is very low for a game involving the Grizzlies right now.  The OVER is 6-2 in Grizzlies last eight games overall with 229 or more combined points in seven of those eight games, including 234 or more in six of them.

I think the books have adjusted this total down due to the Minnesota Timberwolves going under the total in each of their last three games.  But they played two dead nuts under teams in the Clippers and Magic, plus the injury-ravaged Pelicans.

The Timberwolves had gone 5-0 OVER in their previous five games against teams that have a pulse on offense.  But they also faced some great defensive teams during that stretch against Houston, Boston and OKC.  This has the making of a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Suns OVER 228

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  The OVER is 12-4 in Jazz last 16 games overall with 236 or more combined points in 11 of those 16 games. This total of 228 is very low for a game involving the Jazz, who rank 29th in defensive rating.

The Phoenix Suns are fully healthy right now and an elite offensive team when that's the case.  But they rank 22nd in defensive rating this season.  They are coming off a 123-115 home win over the Atlanta Hawks for 238 combined points.  It should be more of the same against the Jazz tonight.

The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the Jazz and Suns with 230 or more combined points in all six meetings.  They combined for 260 points in their last meeting this season.  Enough said.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Thunder/Knicks NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on OVER 225

The New York Knicks are a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They have done a 180 becoming one of the best offensive teams in the NBA while simultaneously slipping a lot on defense.  They rank 3rd in offensive rating only slightly behind the Cavs and Celtics.

The Oklahoma City Thunder rank 8th in offensive rating and like to play fast.  They are more of an OVER team right now without Alex Caruso, who is one of their best defenders but doesn't provide much on offense.  They just got in a 129-122 shootout with the Cavs last game for 251 combined points, and it will be more of the same against the Knicks tonight.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 224 or more combined points in all six meetings between the Knicks and Thunder.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Celtics OVER 229.5

Note: Fox has since been listed out since I posted this pick.  I would no longer play it.

De'Aaron Fox was seen participating in shootaround in Boston Friday.  They are an OVER team with him and an UNDER team without him.  I'm expecting him to play tonight, which is why I added this OVER 229.5

The Celtics rank 2nd in offensive rating this season only behind the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The Kings rank 7th in offensive rating.  These are two of the best offensive teams in the NBA, and they are both fully healthy right now.

The Kings have scored at least 122 points in five of their last six games, and the OVER is 5-2 in their last seven games.  The Celtics are coming off three consecutive unders which are keeping this total lower than it should be.  They played the Nuggets without Jokic, the best defensive team in the NBA in the Thunder and the 3rd-best defensive team in the NBA in the Rockets during this three-game stretch.

Both teams are fresh, healthy and ready to run.  The Celtics have had the last two days off, while the Kings have had the last three days off.  I expect this game to be played at a very frenetic pace.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +6

The Utah Jazz are exactly the type of team you can make money on in the NBA.  They have a poor record but they show up to play every night.  And that has especially been the case of late as the Jazz are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with four outright upset victories.

Without Jimmy Butler, the Miami Heat have no business being 6-point road favorites over the Jazz tonight.  The Heat were 9-point home favorites over the Jazz in their first meeting this season and lost 136-100, failing to cover the spread by 45 points.

This is a very tough spot for the Heat.  They will be playing in their 3rd different city in 4 days and their 6th game in 9 days.  They had to go to double-OT against Sacramento three nights ago to add to their fatigue.  Now they have to go into altitude in Salt Lake City, and I don't expect them to handle it very well tonight.  Bet the Jazz Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Suns OVER 236.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in pace and 20th in defensive rating.  The Hawks and their opponents have combined for at least 230 points in eight of their last 10 games overall.

The Phoenix Suns are at full strength right now and a deadly offensive team when that's the case, which hasn't been the case for much of the season.  Booker, Beal and Durant are all healthy as are all their role players with the exception of Royce O'Neale.

The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the Hawks and Suns.  They have combined for 243 and 249 points in their last two meetings, and 232 or more points in eight of their last 10 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Heat/Jazz OVER 221.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  The OVER is 12-3 in Jazz last 15 games overall with 236 or more combined points in 11 of those 15 games. This total of 221.5 is very low for a game involving the Jazz right now.  

What makes them such an OVER team is that they like to play fast while also simultaneously ranking dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  Their offense is much better when they are as healthy as they are right now.  They have scored at least 103 points in 12 consecutive games, including 120 or more in six of them.

The Miami Heat don't miss much offensively without Jimmy Butler, but they do miss him defensively.  They have had to go more small ball and they shoot a ton of 3-pointers, which makes them more of an OVER team.  They have fallen off defensively allowing 120 or more points in four of their last seven games.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.  That includes 236 combined points in their first meeting this season.  They have combined for 226 or more points in seven of their last eight meetings, including 233 or more in six of those.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +12

The Raptors have managed to stay competitive despite dealing with a plethora of injuries all season.  There is a lot of talent on this roster when fully healthy, and the Raptors are fully healthy for the first time all season tonight.

The New York Knicks are a tired team and it is showing going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost outright to the short-handed Magic last game as double-digit home favorites.  They lost by 13 at Chicago as 5.5-point favorites.

Tom Thibodeau keeps playing his starters 40-plus minutes on a nightly basis.  It is catching up to them in the injury department as both Towns and McBride are questionable to play tonight after sitting out last game.

The Knicks will be playing their 8th game in 13 days, while the Raptors will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  The Raptors will be playing with double-revenge after losing by 5 at home and by 14 on the road to the Knicks in their two meetings in December.  This number is a couple notches too high.  Bet the Raptors Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Detroit Pistons -7

The Brooklyn Nets are a dumpster fire right now.  They have already made a couple big trades and have failed to replace the players they lost.  Making matters worse is that they are without 7 key players right now, including each of their top 4 scorers.

All these injuries and lack of talent have really showed up in their last two games as the Nets lost by 29 at home to the 76ers and by 14 at home to the Pacers.  I don't expect it to go much better for them tonight.

Now they take on a Detroit Pistons team that has quietly gone 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall.  They are legit playoff contenders sitting at 18-18 on the season.  I don't expect Detroit to have a letdown here considering they have a chance to get above .500 for the first time this season.  This has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

20* Thunder/Cavs ESPN No-Brainer on Cleveland -2

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 30-4 SU this season including 18-1 SU at home.  They are the healthier, more rested team tonight in this huge matchup with the Oklahoma City Thunder.

While the Cavs will be playing just their 3rd game in 9 days, the Thunder will be playing their 4th game in 7 days.  The Thunder are coming off a big comeback home win over the Celtics, setting them up for a big of a letdown spot here.

You won't find a tougher two-game stretch than Boston followed by Cleveland.  This is also the first road game for the Thunder after playing their last five games at home.  This will be their toughest test of the season.  Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday.

20* Celtics/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on OVER 235.5

The Denver Nuggets are without their best defender in Aaron Gordon right now.  They are a dead nuts OVER team without him having to go small ball by inserting Russell Westbrook into the starting lineup in his place.

In their last 22 games, the Nuggets and their opponents have combined for at least 229 points in 17 of them.  Here of late they have gone for 233 or more combined points in five of their last six games, including 259 with the Hawks, 253 with the Jazz, 255 with the Pistons and 284 with the Cavs.  The Nuggets rank 4th in offensive rating on the season.

The Celtics are fully healthy right now for basically the first time all season with only Derrick White listed questionable with an illness.  They are setting records for shooting 3-pointers and rank 2nd in offensive rating only behind the Cavaliers.  When fully healthy they are arguably the best offensive team in the NBA.  They will gladly go small ball to match the Nuggets tonight.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans +5.5

This is a very tough spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 108-106 win over the Los Angeles Clippers last night.  Four starters played at least 31 minutes for the Timberwolves in the win.  They haven't had two days off in a row since December 17-18.  They won't have much left in the tank for the New Orleans Pelicans tonight.

The Pelicans are as healthy as they have been in a long time and now Zion Williamson makes his return tonight.  They are only for sure without Brandon Ingram.  This is a very talented roster, and a lot more talented than their 7-29 SU record would indicate.  But because they have such a poor record we are getting great value with them tonight and in the immediate future as long as they are as healthy as they are right now.

The Pelicans are coming off consecutive blowout victories over the Wizards by 12 and 12 points in a home-and-home situation.  They are rested after having yesterday off and will be playing just their 5th game in 11 days.  The spot really favors the home underdog tonight.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Suns/Hornets OVER 222

The Charlotte Hornets have been battling injuries all season.  But they are finally pretty healthy only missing Mann and Grant Williams.  They are a dead nuts OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball (29.8 PPG, 7.3 APG) is on the court, and he is currently healthy right now.  The Hornets also recently got Brandon Miller (21.5 PPG) back from injury.

The Suns are basically fully healthy for the first time all season.  Durant, Booker, Beal and Nurkic are all healthy.  They are brining Beal and Nurkic off the bench to help out with their depth issues, and it's working as they just upset the 76ers last night.  They are a deadly offensive team when all these guys are healthy.

The Hornets and Suns have combined for at least 225 points in four of their last six meetings with the OVER going 3-2-1.  This total of 222 is way too short for a game involving healthy Suns and Hornets teams tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bulls +3

The Chicago Bulls are fully healthy right now with the exception of Dosunmu.  They have quietly been playing some pretty good basketball here of late going 6-4 SU in their last 10 games, including a 139-126 win as 5.5-point underdogs over the Knicks last time out.  They also upset the Celtics and Bucks during this stretch.

The Bulls are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They have owned the San Antonio Spurs, going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  That includes a 139-124 win as 1.5-point dogs in San Antonio in their first meeting this season on December 5th.

I think this is a terrible spot for the San Antonio Spurs.  They are coming off a home-and-home series with the Denver Nuggets on Friday and Saturday.  After beating the Nuggets 113-110 on the road Friday, they lost 122-111 (OT) to the Nuggets at home on Saturday.  This has the makings of a flat spot for the Spurs after those two grueling games, and now playing in their 3rd different city in 4 days.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Indiana Pacers -10

The Indiana Pacers are as healthy as they have been all season and playing their best basketball of the season as a result.  They have opened 2025 by beating the Heat by 13 on the road and the Suns by 18 at home to improve to 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

Now the Pacers should make easy work of the Brooklyn Nets, who have traded away a few of their best players and are in transition.  Making matters worse for the Nets is their laundry list of injuries right now.

Indeed, the Nets have 8 players on the injury report.  They are without Bogdanovic, Melton (10.3 PPG), Thomas (24.7 PPG) and Johnson (19.5 PPG), and they could be without Russell (12.7 PPG, 5.0 APG) and Simmons (5.9 PPG, 6.9 APG), who are both questionable to play tonight.  They are basically a G League team right now.  This has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Pacers Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Magic/Knicks UNDER 210

The Orlando Magic are without each of their top four scorers in Banchero (29.0 PPG), Franz Wagner (24.4 PPG), Suggs (16.4 PPG) and Mo Wagner (12.9 PPG).  It's safe to say points have been very hard to come by for the Magic without these guys.

Indeed, the Magic are 2-4 SU in their last six games overall while averaging just 94.8 points per game during this six-game stretch.  They rank 29th in the NBA in offensive rating, 5th in defensive rating and 29th in pace over those six games.  They are a dead nuts UNDER team as it is, but especially in their current form.

Both Karl-Anthony Towns (25.3 PPG) and Miles McBride (9.8 PPG) are questionable to play for the Knicks tonight, and Jalen Brunson (25.4 PPG) is playing through a calf injury.  The Knicks aren't in great shape right now either in the injury department.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will already be the 4th meeting between the Knicks and Magic this season and all four have come within the last month.  After a 121-106 win by the Knicks in their first meeting where the Wagner brothers combined for 50 points.  The the last two have been extremely low scoring with just 191 and 193 combined points.  It will be more of the same in the 4th meeting as this one stays well UNDER the 210-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Suns/76ers NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Phoenix +3.5

The Phoenix Suns will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost four straight games to the Pacers, Grizzlies, Warriors and Mavericks coming in.  But they are now fully healthy for basically the first time all season and should put their best foot forward tonight.

The Suns will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days to start 2025.  They are fresh and ready to go, and now Durant, Beal, Booker and Nurkic are all healthy when all four has missed significant time this season.  Jones is back in the lineup as well after sitting out last game.

The 76ers do have George and Maxey back, but Embiid is questionable every night and remains questionable tonight.  Both Oubre (12.8 PPG) and Lowry are questionable, and McCain (15.3 PPG) and Martin (6.4 PPG) are both out.  The 76ers are a top-heavy team and missing some key role players.

The Suns have owned the 76ers going 9-2 SU in the last 11 meetings.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Suns Monday.

20* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Portland Trail Blazers +6.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are quietly playing their best basketball of the season right now largely due to the fact that they are fully healthy with the exception of Jeramy Grant.  They have gone 3-2 SU in their last five games with an upset home win over the Mavericks and an upset road win over the Bucks as double-digit underdogs.

The Detroit Pistons are getting too much respect now after going 6-1 SU in their last seven games.  They are coming off an outright upset win over the Timberwolves as 6.5-point dogs, setting them up for a big letdown spot here tonight.

Cade Cunningham had 40 points in the win, and he is going to have to shoulder even more of the load moving forward now that Jaden Ivey (17.6 PPG, 4.0 APG) is out with a broken fibula.  Ivey is one of the more underrated players in the league and the Pistons will miss him sooner rather than later.  Amen Thompson (7.4 PPG, 4.7 RPG) is questionable.

The Blazers own the Pistons going 8-1 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Their lone loss came by 6 in OT.  That makes for a 9-0 system backing the Blazers pertaining to this 6.5-point spread.  Bet the Blazers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Magic OVER 212

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy, which is the case right now.  The OVER is 11-2 in Jazz last 13 games overall with 236 or more combined points in 10 of those 13 games.

This total of 212 is very low for a game involving the Jazz right now.  What makes them such an OVER team is that they like to play fast while also simultaneously ranking dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  Their offense is much better when they are as healthy as they are right now.  They have scored at least 103 points in 10 consecutive games, including 120 or more in five of them.

The Orlando Magic are an under team, but that is being factored into this line too much.  They will be able to hang a big number on the Jazz, and I expect the Jazz to hang right with them.  

The Jazz and Magic have combined for at least 213 points in five consecutive meetings, including 220 or more in each of the last four.  I like OVERS in non-conference games because teams are unfamiliar with one another only facing each other twice a year, and that unfamiliarity favors offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Utah Jazz +6.5

The Utah Jazz are as healthy as they have been all season.  That return to health has led to a 6-2 ATS run in their last eight games overall.  That includes a 136-100 upset win over the Miami Heat last night.

This line has been adjusted too much in Orlando's favor due to the Jazz playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  But they had two days off prior to that win over Miami, and it was a blowout so their starters didn't even play in the 4th quarter.  Nobody played more than 30 minutes for the Jazz last night.

It's a short trip from Miami to Orlando, so I expect the Jazz to still be plenty fresh tonight to put forth another big effort.  But this play is as much a fade of the Magic as anything with all the injuries they are dealing with right now.

Indeed, the Magic will be without each of their top four scorers in Banchero (29.0 PPG), Franz Wagner (24.4 PPG), Suggs (16.4 PPG) and Mo Wagner (12.9 PPG).  The Magic have gone 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall clearly struggling with all these injuries.  The only wins were by 9 over Toronto and by 1 over the Nets, which are two of the worst teams in the NBA.  Bet the Jazz Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +5.5

I love the spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight.  They are rested after having the last two days off, and they are pissed off coming off one of their worst losses of the season to the Wizards.

The Bulls have a big rest advantage over the Knicks, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 117-107 loss in Oklahoma City last night.  It will also be the 6th game in 9 days for the Knicks, which is about as tough a situation as there is in the NBA.

Amazingly, all five starters for the Knicks played at least 40 minutes last night.  Don't be surprised if one or more of those starters rest tonight.  They were already without key backup PG Miles McBride due to a hamstring injury, and they really miss him backing up Brunson.

The Bulls upset the Knicks 124-123 as 8.5-point road underdogs in their first meeting this season on November 13th.  Now they are catching 5.5 points in the rematch at home in a much more favorable rest spot.  Bet the Bulls Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Jazz/Heat OVER 223.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy, which is the case right now.  The OVER is 10-2 in Jazz last 12 games overall with 237 or more combined points in nine of those 12 games.

This total of 223.5 is very low for a game involving the Jazz right now.  What makes them such an OVER team is that they like to play fast while also simultaneously ranking dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  Their offense is much better when they are as healthy as they are right now.

I think the Heat without Jimmy Butler are actually more of an OVER team.  He is a great defender, and the ball sticks in his hands on offense.  So they play more freely and more team basketball without Butler on the court, while also being much worse off defensively.  The OVER is 3-1 in their last four games overall with 227 or more combined points in three of those four games.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings with 226 or more combined points in six of those seven meetings.  I like OVERS in these non-conference games between teams that aren't familiar with one another because the unfamiliarity tends to favor offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nuggets/Spurs UNDER 239

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This is one of those rare home-and-home situations in the NBA.  The Spurs just beat the Nuggets 113-110 in Denver last night for 223 combined points, and now they square off again tonight in San Antonio.

I was actually on the OVER 235.5 last night in that game and lost.  Now they have set the total at 239 for the rematch, and it should not be set higher than it was last night given the situation of the familiarity.  Victor Wembenyama defends Jokic as well as anyone in the NBA, so points for the Nuggets are very hard to come by.

The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 223 or fewer combined points in three of those four meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Pacers OVER 234.5

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 21-13-1 OVER in all games this season.  They rank 7th in pace, 9th in offensive rating and 23rd in defensive rating.

The Phoenix Suns are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy, which they are right now.  Durant, Booker, Beal and Nurkic have all missed significant time this season, but all are healthy with the exception of Beal, who is questionable after playing last game so it's likely he plays again tonight.  Especially since the Suns have had the last three days off and will be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days.

The OVER is 5-0 in Pacers last five games overall with 232 or more combined points in all five games.  They are as healthy as they have been all season.  They are up against a Phoenix team that ranks 22nd in defensive rating and 10th in offensive rating.  The Pacers will control the tempo playing at home.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Spurs/Nuggets OVER 235.5

Since losing their best defender in Aaron Gordon to injury, the Denver Nuggets have been a dead nuts OVER team.  They have inserted Russell Westbrook into the starting lineup in place of Gordon, and Westbrook is a dead nuts OVER play adding a lot on offense but taking away a lot on defense.

The OVER is 7-2 in Nuggets last nine games overall with 250 or more combined points in seven of those nine games.  These games have been flying OVER the total.  They combined for 259 with Atlanta, 253 with Utah, 255 with Detroit, 284 with Cleveland, 261 with New Orleans, 250 with Portland and 259 with Sacramento.

The San Antonio Spurs are as healthy as they have been all season and we are seeing more high scoring games as a result.  The OVER is 8-4 in Spurs last 12 games overall.  The OVER is 3-2 in the last five meetings with 242 or or combined points in three of those five.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Pelicans OVER 232

The Washington Wizards finally have both Poole and Kuzma on the court at the same time, which has been rare this season.  They are dead nuts OVER team with these two on the court because they are both scorers on offense and terrible defenders on defense.

The Wizards rank 4th in pace and 27th in defensive rating, which makes them a dead nuts OVER team.  They take on a New Orleans Pelicans team that ranks 29th in defensive rating, so these are two of the four worst defensive teams in the NBA.

The OVER is 5-0 in Pelicans last five games overall with 227 or more combined points in all five games.  They combined for 256 with Memphis, 239 with Houston and 261 with Denver.  They are healthier than they have been in a long time too and Murray, Murphy III and McCollum are all good offensive players but not good defenders.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Wizards and Pelicans.  The last two have been crazy high scoring combining for 259 points in New Orleans and 264 points in Washington.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Rockets +2.5

This is a tough spot for the Boston Celtics tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a hard-fought 118-115 win in Minnesota last night.  Four of five starters played at least 35 minutes for the Celtics last night.

They were without both Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis and there's a good chance both of them sit tonight.  They could elect to rest one of either Tatum, Horford, Holiday or White who were the five starters to play at least 35 minutes last night.

The Houston Rockets are rested and ready to go after having yesterday off, and playing just their 2nd game in 5 days tonight.  The Rockets are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA going 22-11 SU & 20-13 ATS this season.  They will be licking their chops at the opportunity to take down the defending champs at home tonight.

The Celtics have been grossly overvalued this season after winning the title last year.  They are just 12-20-1 ATS in all games.  They are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Bet the Rockets Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pacers/Heat OVER 223.5

This total is way too low for a game involving the Pacers and Heat.  Each of the last six meetings between the Pacers and Heat have seen 227 or more combined points, making for a perfect 6-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 223.5-point total.

Both the Pacers and Heat are as healthy as they have been all season and clicking offensively.  The OVER is 4-0 in Pacers last four games overall with 232 or more combined points in all four games.  The Heat have gone for 227 and 230 combined points in two of their last three games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Jazz/Knicks OVER 230.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy, which is the case right now.  The OVER is 10-1 in Jazz last 11 games overall with 237 or more combined points in nine of those 11 games.

This total of 230.5 is very low for a game involving the Jazz right now.  What makes them such an OVER team is that they like to play fast while also simultaneously ranking dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  Their offense is much better when they are as healthy as they are right now.

The New York Knicks have had a huge switch this season from a defensive team to an offensive team simply with the addition of Karl-Anthony Towns.  The Knicks actually rank 2nd in offensive rating only behind the Cavaliers.  They have really slipped defensively ranking 14th in that category.

The OVER is 4-1 in Knicks last five games overall with 231 or more combined points in four of those five games.  This total is simply too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons ML -120

The Orlando Magic are without Banchero (29.0 PPG), Franz Wagner (24.4 PPG) and Mo Wagner (12.9 PPG).  Jalen Suggs is banged up and Anthony Black (8.5 PPG) is questionable.  That's so much production they are without right now, and I don't think they should be listed close to a PK on the road at Detroit tonight.

The Pistons are as healthy as they have been all season and playing as well as they have all season as a result.  The Pistons are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall, winning 133-125 as 6-point dogs at Phoenix, 117-114 as 6-point dogs at the Lakers and 114-113 as 5-point dogs at Sacramento.  Their lone loss came by 13 on the road at Denver.

The Pistons have had the last three days off and will be fresh and ready to go tonight.  They will also be playing just their 3rd game in 9 days.  It will be the 4th game in 7 days for the Magic, so the Pistons have a big rest advantage as well.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Pistons on the Money Line Wednesday.

20* Cavs/Lakers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 228

The Cleveland Cavaliers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 21-11 OVER in all games this season.  They rank 1st in offensive rating and 7th in pace this season which is a deadly combination.  They are playing faster and shooting a lot more 3's this season.

The OVER is 3-0 in Lakers last three games overall with 254, 228 and 231 combined points.  They have scored at least 113 points in five of their last six games overall.  The only exception was when they were held to 103 points by the Kings the game after playing the Kings, so they were both very familiar with how to stop one another.

The Cavaliers have scored at least 124 points in five of their last six games overall, and 113 or more points in 12 consecutive games coming in.  The Cavaliers beat the Lakers 134-110 for 244 combined points in their first meeting this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Cavs/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 229.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 21-10 OVER in all games this season.  They rank 1st in offensive rating and 8th in pace this season which is a deadly combination.  They are playing faster and shooting a lot more 3's this season.

The Golden State Warriors are more of an OVER team now with Steph Curry and Dennis Schroeder healthy and on the court at the same time.  They give away some defense with both of them, but they need them offensively or they are broken.

The Cavs beat the Warriors 136-117 at home for 253 combined points in their first meeting this season when the total was set at 230.  This total of 229.5 is too short given that both teams are almost fully healthy right now.  The OVER is 5-0 in Cavs last five games overall, including 284 combined points with Denver last time out.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nuggets/Jazz OVER 239.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy, which is the case right now.  The OVER is 9-1 in Jazz last 10 games overall with 237 or more combined points in eight of those 10 games.

The Denver Nuggets are a dead nuts OVER team right now without Aaron Gordon, who is their best defender.  The OVER is 5-2 in Nuggets last seven games overall with 250 or more combined points in five of those seven games.  They combined for 284 points with the Cavs and 255 with the Pistons in their last two games coming in.

The Jazz rank dead last (30th) in defensive rating while the Nuggets rank 18th.  These are two very poor defenses that like to play fast with the Nuggets 5th in pace and the Jazz 12th.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +12

I love the spot for the Washington Wizards tonight.  They get a shot at quick revenge after a 136-132 (OT) loss to the Knicks at home on Saturday.  Now they get to host the Knicks two days later here and will be the much more motivated team.

The Wizards are also the fresher team playing just their 3rd game in 7 days.  They are also as healthy as they have been all season as Kyle Kuzma is expected back from injury tonight.

Jalen Brunson had 55 points in 44 minutes of action as all five starters played at least 38 minutes for the Knicks in that game Saturday.  Brunson is questionable to play tonight with a calf injury.  The Knicks will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 4th game in 6 days, so don't be surprised if they rest him or others.  Bet the Wizards Monday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Memphis Grizzlies +7

Injuries are starting to pile up for the Oklahoma City Thunder.  They were already without Holmgren, and now Dort, Wallace and Caruso are out.  The lack of depth will catch up with them today.

The Thunder will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 106-94 road win at Charlotte yesterday as 13.5-point favorites against a depleted Hornets team.  They will also be playing in their 3rd different city in 4 days.  Four starters played over 31 minutes for the Thunder yesterday.

While the Grizzlies have injuries of their own, it's something they have gotten used to the last couple season and they just play through it and have shown off tremendous depth.  Despite all the injuries, the Grizzlies are 22-10 SU & 22-10 ATS this season as one of the most undervalued teams in the NBA.

The spot really favors the Grizzlies after having yesterday off.  They will be the fresher team, and that's worth a lot in the NBA.  I think getting +7 with Memphis is a nice value as they will be motivated to prove to the Thunder that they are the kings of the West this season.  Bet the Grizzlies Sunday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Raptors ML +105

This is a terrible spot for the Atlanta Hawks.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a 120-110 home win over the Miami Heat last night, who were missing Jimmy Butler.  They will also be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.

After playing four straight home games, the Hawks now hit the road for the first time since December 19 and have to travel across the border to Toronto.  They won't be motivated at all to beat the 7-24 Raptors.  They are extremely banged up without Okongwu, Daniels, Bogdanovic and Nance.  I wouldn't be surprised if any of their other starters sit after playing last night, including Young and Johnson, who both played more than 35 minutes.

The Raptors continue to fight every night.  They have Barrett, Barnes, Dick and Agbagi healthy and six other key players have been upgraded to questionable, including Poeltl, Brown and Mitchell after each sat out last game.  The Raptors are rested and ready to go after having the last two days off.  They'll be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days as well.

This is a huge step down in class for the Raptors after facing the Grizzlies and Knicks on the road and the Rockets at home in their last three games.  I think they take advantage here and put an end to their current nine-game losing streak against a brutal schedule.  Bet the Raptors on the Money Line Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on 76ers/Jazz OVER 222.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy, which is the case right now.  The OVER is 8-1 in Jazz last nine games overall with 237 or more combined points in eight of those nine games. This total of 222.5 is too low for a game involving the Jazz right now.

The Philadelphia 76ers finally have Maxey, George and Embiid on the court at the same time right now and it has made all the difference for them offensively.  The 76ers are 4-1 SU in their last five games overall scoring at least 108 points in all four wins, including 118 against the Celtics last time out in a 118-114 upset win as 9.5-point dogs on Christmas.

Now the 76ers are in line for one of their best offensive outputs of the season against a Jazz team that ranks dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  The Jazz also like to play fast so there will be a lot of possessions in this game with them controlling the tempo playing at home.

The Jazz and 76ers have combined for 251, 229 and 235 points in their last three meetings, respectively.  Unfamiliarity favors offense and high-scoring games, and these teams are unfamiliar with one another playing only twice a year in different conferences.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +6

The Detroit Pistons cap off a four-game road trip out West tonight and will be highly motivated to sweep it.  They have opened 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS upsetting Phoenix 133-125 as 6-point dogs, upsetting the Lakers 117-114 as 6-point dogs and upsetting the Kings 114-113 as 5-point dogs.

The Pistons are as healthy as they have been all season and grossly undervalued.  They are also rested and ready to go after having the last two days off.  And that rest advantage over the Denver Nuggets is a big reason I am backing them tonight.

The Nuggets are the most tired team in the NBA right now. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 149-135 loss to Cleveland last night.  They will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days here, which is as tough a situation as there is in the NBA.

Aaron Gordon is one of the most underrated players in the NBA, and he is out right now for the Nuggets.  All five starters played at least 29 minutes for the Nuggets last night, including 40 from Jamal Murray and 36 from Jokic.  They have one of the worst benches in the NBA so they lack depth.  Bet the Pistons Saturday.

15* Warriors/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 215.5

The Golden State Warriors will be without Stephen Curry (22.5 PPG) tonight.  He means everything to them from an offensive standpoint, and the Warriors are a dead nuts UNDER team without him.

The Clippers are already a dead nuts UNDER team going 19-11 UNDER in all games this season.  They rank 8th in defensive rating and 25th in offensive rating and they play slow.  The Warriors rank 2nd in defensive rating this season.

This will be the 2nd meeting between the Warriors and Clippers this season.  The first was an absolute defensive battle with the Clippers winning 102-99 at home for 201 combined points.  Curry had 26 points in that game to boot.  It will be more of the same without him tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Cavaliers -2

The Cleveland Cavaliers are as healthy as they have been all season.  They remain undervalued despite being 26-4 SU & 21-9 ATS this season.  They have won five consecutive games all by 10 points or more coming into this one.

The Cavaliers are rested and ready to go after having the last three days off.  They come out of this break motivated to beat the Denver Nuggets, a team they already handled 126-114 at home as 3.5-point favorites on December 5th in their first meeting.

Aaron Gordon had 18 points and 7 rebounds for the Nuggets in that first meeting.  Well, the Nuggets won't have Gordon this time around as he is out with calf injury.  Jamal Murray will play but is hampered by an ankle injury.  I give the Nuggets almost no shot of winning this game without Gordon.

The Nuggets played on Christmas Day in a 110-110 loss at Phoenix despite the Suns playing without Devin Booker.  They will now be playing their 4th game in 6 days tonight.  They also have to deal with the distractions that come with Christmas, and I just believe this is a gassed team right now that lacks depth.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Blazers OVER 227

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy, which is the case right now.  The OVER is 7-1 in Jazz last eight games overall with 237 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  The only game that went under was against the Charlotte Hornets, who are a dead nuts under team.

This total of 227 is too low for a game involving the Jazz right now.  That's especially the case considering the opponent in the Portland Trail Blazers, who are as healthy as they have been all season and we are seeing higher scoring games with them recently as a result.

The Blazers and their opponents have combined for at least 225 points in four of their last five games, including 240 with Dallas, 250 with Denver and 234 with San Antonio.  They also recently lost 141-99 to the Jazz in a game that saw 240 combined points.

The Jazz and Blazers have now combined for at least 226 points in eight of their last nine meetings, including 227 or more in seven of those.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Wizards OVER 226.5

The Hornets are a pretty easy team to figure out.  They are an OVER team with La'Melo Ball (30 PPG, 7.5 APG) healthy and an UNDER team without him.  He is their most important player by far as he makes everyone's job easier offensively. Ball is healthy right now.

The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 games that Ball has played.  There have been 229 or more combined points in seven of those 10 games.  They did go under with the Rockets and 215 combined points last time out, but that was very fluky as they shot 42% as a team and the Rockets only shot 43%.

Now the Hornets take on a dead nuts OVER team in the Washington Wizards tonight.  The Wizards rank 4th in pace and 29th in defensive rating.  They play fast and they play zero defense.

The Hornets and Wizards have combined for 231 or more points in four of their last five meetings, including 237, 241 and 248 in three of those.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Nuggets/Suns ABC Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 232.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  The Nuggets and Suns just squared off on Monday in Denver with the Nuggets winning 117-90 for just 207 combined points.  They have set the total at 232.5 for the rematch here two days later, and it's simply too high.

This has been a low-scoring series to say the least.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 207, 201, 204, 230, 225 and 220 combined points at the end of regulation.  So they have combined for 230 or fewer points at the end of regulation in six consecutive meetings, making for a 6-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 232.5-point total.  The last three of 207, 201, and 204 have been extremely low-scoring.

Injuries to both teams are another reason to like the UNDER.  The Suns are without Devin Booker and Grayson Allen, and both are missed much more on the offensive end than the defensive end.  Jamal Murray is questionable to play for the Nuggets and offers a lot more on the offensive end than the defensive end as well.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Lakers/Warriors ABC No-Brainer on OVER 221

When the Lakers and Warriors get together a shootout is usually the end result.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 223 or more combined points in all six meetings, which makes for a 6-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 221-point total.

The last four meetings have been especially high scoring with 254, 249, 238 and 236 combined points at the end of regulation.  LeBron and AD are both questionable, but both played in their last game and combined for 65 points in a 117-114 loss to the Pistons.  I expect both to play in this game since it's Christmas Day on National TV.

The Warriors are fully healthy with the exception of Gary Payton II, who is questionable. But not having him on the floor would make them even more of an OVER team because he is their best perimeter defender.  Getting Dennis Schroeder in a trade has opened up their offense and given Steve Kerr more options around Steph Curry.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bulls +2

The Milwaukee Bucks are going to struggle to be motivated in the immediate future after winning the NBA Cup.  In their first game out of their cup championship, they lost 124-101 at Cleveland.  They did beat the Wizards 112-101 in their next game, but the Wizards are the worst team in the NBA.

More concerning even than motivation are injuries to their two best players.  They will be without Damian Lillard tonight, and Giannis Antetokounmpo is questionable to play tonight.

The Bulls are fully healthy right now with only Josh Giddey listed as questionable.  They are playing well going 3-1 SU in their last four games overall including a 117-108 road win at Boston as 14.5-point dogs.  Their only loss came to the Celtics at home in the revenge game.

This will be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Bucks off the NBA Cup so they are the more tired team.  This will be just the 5th game in 15 days for the Bulls, and all that rest is a big reason they are playing so well right now.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Bulls UNDER 236.5

The Milwaukee Bucks will be without Damian Lillard tonight and could be without Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is questionable.  They are a dead nuts UNDER team in their current state and that has played out recently.

The Bucks and their oppoenents have combined for 235 or fewer points in nine consecutive games, making for a 9-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 236.5-point total.  They have combined for 225 or fewer points in five consecutive games.

The UNDER is 4-1 in Bulls last five games overall with 225 or fewer combined points in four of those.  Familiarity favors defense and UNDERS, and this will already be the 3rd meeting between the Bucks and Bulls this season.

The Bucks and Bulls have combined for 236 or fewer points at the end of regulation in 19 of their last 20 meetings, making for a 19-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 236.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Memphis Grizzlies -6

The Memphis Grizzlies are one of the best teams in the NBA this season but they aren't being priced like it, thus we continue getting value in backing them.  The Bucks are 12-2 SU & 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall with their last four wins all coming by 16 points or more.  Their only two losses during this stretch came on the road to the Mavericks by 5 and the Lakers by 6.

The Los Angeles Clippers are struggling right now going 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall with all four losses coming by 11 points or more.  Their two wins came over the Jazz and over the Mavericks who were without both Doncic and Irving.  This looks like another blowout in Memphis' favor at home tonight.  Bet the Grizzlies Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Rockets/Hornets OVER 217

The Hornets are a pretty easy team to figure out.  They are an OVER team with La'Melo Ball (30.4 PPG, 7.5 APG) healthy and an UNDER team without him.  He is their most important player by far as he makes everyone's job easier offensively. Ball is healthy right now.

The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine games that Ball has played.  There have been 229 or more combined points in seven of those nine games.  This total of 217 is very low for a game involving the Hornets with Ball healthy.

The OVER is 7-1 in Rockets last eight games that weren't in the NBA Cup, where defensive intensity is high.  We have seen 223 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.

The Hornets and Rockets have combined for at least 219 points in seven of their last eight meetings, making for a 7-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 217-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Jazz/Cavs OVER 230.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy, which is the case right now.  The OVER is 6-1 in Jazz last seven games overall with 238 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  The only game that went under was against the Charlotte Hornets, who are a dead nuts under team.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are also more of a dead nuts OVER team this season going 19-10 OVER in all games. They rank 1st in offensive rating this season and they'll be up against a Jazz team that ranks dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  The OVER is 4-1 in Cavs last five games overall with 231 or more combined points in three of them.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 242, 240 and 230 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana Pacers +3

This is a terrible spot for the Sacramento Kings.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 103-99 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers last night.  Fox, DeRozan and Sabonis all played at least 37 minutes last night and won't have much left in the tank for the Indiana Pacers tonight.

The Pacers are not the team you want to play on tired legs since they play with so much tempo.  And the Pacers come in playing their best basketball of the season going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, which includes 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three road games upsetting Phoenix by 9 as 6-point dogs, upsetting the 76ers by 14 as 6.5-point dogs and topping the Bulls by 9 as 3.5-point favorites.

The Pacers are the much fresher team here after having the last two days off and will be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days.  They should not be underdogs to the Kings today given that huge rest advantage.  Bet the Pacers Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Knicks/Pelicans OVER 225

The Knicks are the most improved offensive team in the NBA with the addition of Karl-Anthony Towns.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in offensive rating only slightly behind the Cavaliers and slightly ahead of the Celtics.  They are fully healthy right now and just hung 133 points against a very good Minnesota defensive team.

The Pelicans have gotten much healthier in recent weeks and are playing better on offense as a result, but they are still terrible defensively.  The Pelicans rank 28th in defensive rating this season and have fallen off a cliff on that end.

The Pelicans and their opponents have combined for at least 220 points in seven consecutive games, including 228 or more in five of those.  They just lost 133-113 at Houston for 246 combined points against a Houston team that isn't very good on offense but is elite on defense.  This has the making of a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Warriors/Timberwolves OVER 213

The Golden State Warriors just combined for 237 points with Memphis and 276 points with Dallas at the end of regulation it their last two games.  They are fully healthy right now, and it's no surprise they are playing in shootouts since trading for Dennis Schroeder to give their offense a spark, but he brings nothing on defense.

The Minnesota Timberwolves just lost 133-107 to the New York Knicks for 240 combined points.  They also recently lost to the Warriors 114-106 in a game that saw 220 combined points with a total of 216.  There's no way the oddsmakers should have adjusted this number down to 213 for the rematch as there's clearly value on the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +11.5

The Milwaukee Bucks just won the NBA Cup in Las Vegas.  They are going to struggle to be motivated for a while in these 'meaningless' NBA regular season games compared to the level of intensity they played with in the NBA Cup.

We saw that on display last night in their 124-101 loss at Cleveland as 8.5-point underdogs.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and come back as 11.5-point favorites over the Wizards tonight.  This is a game they could legitimately lose outright.

The Bucks are a tired team due to playing in the NBA Cup Championship Game.  Damian Lillard is doubtful to play tonight, and they certainly should not be double-digit favorites without him.

The Washington Wizards are about as healthy as they have been all season.  They are 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall only losing by 10 as 16.5-point dogs at Cleveland, by 14 as 17-point dogs at Boston and upsetting Charlotte by 9 as 4-point home dogs.  

This team is grossly undervalued right now, especially given the tough spot for Milwaukee.  The Wizards are also 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Bucks pulling the outright upset as 12.5-point home dogs, and only losing by 3 as 13.5-point road dogs and by 10 as 14.5-point road dogs.  Bet the Wizards Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Nets OVER 221.5

The Utah Jazz are fully healthy and a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They rank dead last (30th) in the NBA in defensive rating.  The OVER is 6-0 in Jazz last six games overall with 245, 251, 260, 238, 240 and 239 combined points.  So this total of 221.5 is very low for a game involving Utah right now.

The Brooklyn Nets aren't a great offensive team, which is why this total is so low.  But I think they will have one of the best outputs of the season here against the worst defensive team in the NBA.

The Jazz and Nets have combined for at least 220 points in six consecutive meetings, including 261 and 233 points in their two meetings last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/76ers OVER 215.5

Note: La'Melo Ball ruled out since I published the pick. Bet much smaller than normal if you purchased.

The Charlotte Hornets are an OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball (30.4 PPG, 7.5 APG) is healthy and playing.  He opens everything up for them offensively.  It's no surprised that after missing three weeks due to injury, Ball returned and the Hornets went 2-0 OVER in his two games since returning with 229 combined points with the 76ers and 237 with the Wizards.

The Hornets also recently got back Miles Bridges and Mark Williams from injury, and Brandon Miller may return tonight.  They will be much better offensively moving forward, but they are still one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.

The 76ers have both Tyrese Maxey and Paul George back and healthy and starting to form a chemistry playing together.  Maxey had 40 points and George 33 in that 121-108 win over the Hornets last time out.

That game had a total of 218.5, so we are getting a discount here with this total at 215.5 for the rematch.  I'm going to be on Hornets OVERS as long as Ball is healthy until the oddsmakers adjust the totals up enough, which they haven't here.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Pacers/Suns NBA No-Brainer on OVER 234.5

The entire NBA is rested and ready to go tonight with almost everyone having at least three days off in between games due to the NBA Cup.  I am taking a lot of OVERS tonight with these guys on fresh legs and healthy and ready to run tonight.

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 6th in pace and 22nd in defensive rating.  The OVER is 16-10-1 in all Pacers games this season.  They are as healthy as they have been in a long time.

Speaking of healthy, the Suns will have all hands on deck tonight and they are a dead nuts OVER team when that's the case.  Durant, Beal and Nurkic have all missed time this season but all are healthy now.

The Suns are 15-10 OVER in all games this season.  They are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall.  The Pacers and Suns combined for 264 points in their last meeting.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Hawks/Spurs OVER 234

The entire NBA is rested and ready to go tonight with almost everyone having at least three days off in between games due to the NBA Cup.  I am taking a lot of OVERS tonight with these guys on fresh legs and healthy and ready to run tonight.

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and 17th in defensive rating this season.  They are fully healthy right now with the exception of C Okongwu, but not having him on the court makes them even more of an OVER team.

The OVER is 4-1 in Spurs last five games overall with 234 or more combined points in four of those five games.  The lone exception came against the Timberwolves, who profile as an under team.

The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between the Hawks and Spurs with 230 or more combined points in eight of those nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Warriors/Grizzlies NBA No-Brainer on OVER 235.5

The entire NBA is rested and ready to go tonight with almost everyone having at least three days off in between games due to the NBA Cup.  I am taking a lot of OVERS tonight with these guys on fresh legs and healthy and ready to run tonight.

The Grizzlies rank 2nd in the NBA in pace while the Warriors rank 8th, so this game will see a ton of possessions as both teams get up and down the court in a hurry offensively.

The Grizzlies are about as healthy as they have been all season and showing what they can do offensively when that's the case.  They have gone for at least 237 combined points with their opponents in five of their last seven games.

The Warriors are fully healthy now and just added Dennis Schroeder to give them that much needed extra guard to give Steph Curry a breather.  They just took part in a 143-133 shootout loss to Dallas and 276 combined points in their last game.

The Warriors and Grizzlies have combined for at least 241 points in five of their last seven meetings, so this has been a very high-scoring series.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +14.5

The Boston Celtics are one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this season.  They won the NBA title last year and there's a tax that bettors have to pay to back them because of it.  The Celtics have failed to live up to expectations, going just 10-16 ATS this season.

Asking the Celtics to beat the Bulls by 15-plus points tonight to beat us is asking too much.  The Bulls are a pesky underdog and tend to play to the level of their competition.  We saw that a few weeks ago when they only lost 138-129 to the Celtics as 12-point home underdogs on November 29th.  Now they will be revenge-minded in the rematch three weeks later.

The Bulls are as healthy as they have been all season right now due with only Josh Giddey listed as questionable.  The Celtics could be without Kristaps Porzingis, who is a game-time decision, ass is role player Sam Hauser.  I think the Bulls keep this closer than expected either way. Bet the Bulls Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Wizards OVER 226

The entire NBA is rested and ready to go tonight with almost everyone having at least three days off in between games due to the NBA Cup.  I am taking a lot of OVERS tonight with these guys on fresh legs and healthy and ready to run tonight.

The Hornets are a pretty easy team to figure out.  They are an OVER team with La'Melo Ball healthy and an UNDER team without him.  He is their most important player by far as he makes everyone's job easier offensively. Ball is healthy right now.

The Washington Wizards profile as a dead nuts OVER team ranking 4th in pace and 29th in defensive rating.  But the Wizards have been going under the total a lot recently, which has provided us some line value to 'buy low' on an OVER tonight.

The Wizards and Hornets have combined fro 231, 241 and 248 points in three of their last four meetings.  Ball played in all three of those games and didn't play in the one game during this stretch that didn't see at least 231 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Jazz/Pistons OVER 228

The entire NBA is rested and ready to go tonight with almost everyone having at least three days off in between games due to the NBA Cup.  I am taking a lot of OVERS tonight with these guys on fresh legs and healthy and ready to run tonight.  This is my favorite OVER of the bunch.

The Utah Jazz are fully healthy and a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They rank dead last (30th) in the NBA in defensive rating.  The OVER is 5-0 in Jazz last five games overall with 251, 260, 238, 240 and 239 combined points.  So this total of 228 is very low for a game involving Utah right now.

The OVER is 4-1 in Pistons last five games overall with 235, 250, 231, 222 and 249 combined points.  This total is also very low for a game involving the Pistons right now.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 230 or more combined points in all four.  These teams have combined for 276, 230, 237 and 241 points at the end of regulation in their last four meetings, respectively. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Bucks/Thunder NBA Cup Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 215

Some great defense is being played in the NBA Cup quarterfinals and semifinals.  These are like playoff games with the defensive intensity high, and refs letting more physical contact go.  The UNDER is 5-1 in NBA Cup quarterfinals/semifinals. This total of 215 is too high for this matchup between the Bucks and Thunder in the NBA Cup Championship Game.  

The Thunder rank 1st in the NBA in defensive rating.  They held the Mavericks to 104 points in the quarterfinals, completing locking down Luka Doncic and company as nobody from Dallas scored more than 19 points.  They held the Rockets to 96 points in the semifinals.  They have allowed 110 points or fewer in 10 of their last 11 games overall.

The Bucks have been trending up defensively in recent weeks.  They held the high-powered Hawks to just 102 points on 42.7% shooting in the semifinals.  And I think they will be good enough defensively to keep this UNDER the 215-point total in the NBA Cup Championship Game.  It also benefits both teams defensively to have two days off in between games to prepare to stop one another.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Bucks/Thunder NBA Cup No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -4.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with all five wins coming by double-digits.  That includes their 118-104 win over Dallas and their 111-96 win over Houston in the quarterfinals and semifinals of the NBA Cup, respectively.

The Thunder rank 1st in the NBA in defensive rating which is why they can be trusted every night.  And that's where a big difference in this NBA Cup Championship Game lies.  The Milwaukee Bucks rank 13th in the NBA in defensive rating and really struggle to defend opposing point guards.

The Bucks had a very easy path to get here.  They got to face the Magic without their top two scorers in Banchero and Wagner in the quarterfinals and were still life and death to win that game in a 114-109 victory.  They needed a late surge to put away the Atlanta Hawks 110-102 in the semifinals.  The Hawks were far and away the worst team that made the NBA Cup Quarterfinals.

So this is a big step up in class for the Bucks here after facing the short-handed Magic and the awful Hawks.  Now they must face arguably the best team in the NBA in the Thunder, and I don't expect it to go well for them in the Championship Game.  Bet the Thunder Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Jazz/Clippers OVER 222.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy.  They rank 13th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating this season.  But they have some firepower on offense when healthy.

The OVER is 4-0 in Utah's last four games overall combining for 239 points with Oklahoma City, 240 points with Portland, 238 with Sacramento and 260 with Phoenix.  They had Markkanen, Sexton and Clarkson on the floor at the same time against Phoenix and scored 126 points.  They haven't had those three on the court at the same time much this season until recently.

The Clippers are more of an under team with a good defense and suspect offense, but that's why this total is so low.  I'm fully expecting one of their best offensive performances of the season tonight.  They have scored 127, 126, 125 and 121 points in four of their last nine games and I think they will get 120-plus in this one.  

The Clippers and Jazz have combined for at least 219 points in each of their last eight meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Grizzlies/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis -4

The Memphis Grizzlies have gotten healthy and have quietly gone 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall with seven wins by 11 points or more.  They are playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now, and I expect them to make easy work of the struggling Los Angeles Lakers tonight.

The Lakers are 3-8 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  LeBron James is questionable, Anthony Davis is banged up, and the Lakers are just a mess right now.  Their three wins during this stretch have come against the Blazers, Jazz and Spurs, which are three of the worst teams in the West.  They won't be able to hang with the Grizzlies with or without LeBron today.  Bet the Grizzlies Sunday.

20* Rockets/Thunder NBA Cup No-Brainer on UNDER 214

Some great defense is being played in the NBA Cup quarterfinals and beyond.  These are like playoff games with the defensive intensity high, and refs letting more physical contact go.  The UNDER went 3-1 in quarterfinals games earlier this week.

This is a matchup between the two best defensive teams in the NBA Saturday.  The Thunder rank 1st in defensive rating allowing 103.4 points per 100 possessions, while the Rockets rank 2nd allowing 105.1 points per 100 possessions.

The Rockets were in the ultimate defensive battle against the Warriors in the quarterfinals winning 91-90 for just 181 combined points.  The Thunder beat the Mavericks 118-104 completing locking down Luka Doncic and company as nobody from Dallas scored more than 19 points.

The Thunder are allowing 103.8 points per game on 42.7% shooting this season.  The Rockets are allowing 105.9 points per game on 43.4% shooting.  These are two of the most athletic teams in the league that can guard all five positions.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Hawks/Bucks NBA Cup No-Brainer on UNDER 229

Some great defense is being played in the NBA Cup quarterfinals and beyond.  These are like playoff games with the defensive intensity high, and refs letting more physical contact go.  The UNDER went 3-1 in quarterfinals games earlier this week.

The Hawks beat the Knicks 108-100 for just 208 combined points and the Bucks beat the Magic 114-109 for just 223 combined points.  This will be the 2nd meeting between the Hawks and Bucks in 11 days, so familiarity will be a factor and favor defense.

The Hawks won that game 119-104 for just 223 combined points on December 4th.  I think given the circumstances of this being a win-or-go-home situation, there's value with the UNDER 229 in the rematch today.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Jazz OVER 231

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 29th in defensive rating only ahead of the Wizards.  They also like to play fast and are as healthy as they have been in a while, so their offense should be better.

The Phoenix Suns get Kevin Durant back tonight and are back to almost full strength with the exception of Jusuf Nurkic.  They are an elite offensive team as long as the Big 3 of Durant, Booker and Beal are all on the court at the same time, which is the case right now.

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings between the Jazz and Suns with 230 or more combined points in all five meetings, including 232 or more in each of their last four meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -10

The Memphis Grizzlies have gotten healthy and have quietly gone 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with six wins by 11 points or more.  That's why I'm willing to lay double-digits with them tonight hosting the Brooklyn Nets.

The Nets are 1-4 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall and playing very banged up.  I don't think they can hang with this current version of the Grizzlies, who are actually playing with double-revenge after losing two earlier meetings this season to the Nets back when they weren't as healthy as they are now.  It will be a different story this time around with Memphis winning in a blowout.  Bet the Grizzlies Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/76ers OVER 226.5

The Indiana Pacers remain a dead nuts OVER team this season going 16-9 OVER in all games.  They rank 6th in pace and 24th in defensive rating.  They are getting healthier to add more offense to their arsenal, and their post defense is dreadful.

The Philadelphia 76ers will have Maxey, Embiid and George all healthy for basically the first time this season.  They are going to start scoring a lot more points as long as these three are on the court at the same time, so this is a 'buy low' spot on the OVER for them.

The OVER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings between the Pacers and 76ers with 232 or more combined points in all seven meetings, and 255 or more combined points in six of those seven.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Kings/Pelicans OVER 231.5

The Sacramento Kings have gotten healthy, moved Malik Monk into the starting lineup and they are thriving offensively right now as a result.  They have scored at least 120 points in four of their last five games, including 141 and 140 in regulation in their last two games.

The New Orleans Pelicans have gotten healthier with McCollum, Murray, Murphy and Jones all recently returning from injury.  These guys are starting to gel in the starting lineup alongside Missi.  Brandon Boston Jr. (12.1 PPG) has been one of the most improved players in the NBA off the bench.

The OVER is 4-0 in Pelicans last four games overall with 228 or more combined points in all four, including 236 or more combined points in three of them.  The Pelicans and Kings have combined for at least 233 points in three of their last four meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Pistons 12.5

The Detroit Pistons are fully healthy right now and showing what they are capable of when that's the case.  After covering in a 130-120 loss as 12-point road dogs at Boston, the Pistons upset the Knicks 120-111 as 8-point road dogs in their last two games coming into this one.

Now the Pistons are rested and ready to go for revenge on the Celtics here a week later.  They have had the last four days off and will be playing just their 2nd game in 8 days.  I think they give the Celtics another run for their money tonight as 12.5-point dogs in the rematch.

The Celtics are overvalued after winning the title last year.  That is evidenced by the fact that they are 9-15 ATS in all games this season.  They have just two wins by more than 12 points in their last 11 games.  Both Jayson Tatum and Al Horford are questionable, and they will be without Sam Houser, who is doubtful.  Bet the Pistons Thursday.

20* Warriors/Rockets NBA Cup No-Brainer on Houston -2.5

The Houston Rockets are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are 16-8 SU & 16-8 ATS and fully healthy right now.  Both Fred Van Vleet (16.0 PPG, 5.9 APG) and Tari Eason (11.3 PPG, 6.5 RPG) sat out their last game and were on the injury report heading into this game, but both are expected to play.

The Rockets are clearly taking this NBA Cup seriously.  They went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their first three Group Stage games to clinch their spot in the quarterfinals.  They beat the Clippers by 21 and the Blazers by 28 in their two home games, and they upset the Timberwolves by 6 on the road.  Their 4th Group Stage game against the Kings was meaningless and they played like it in a 9-point road loss.

Now the Rockets are extra motivated to get over this Golden State hurdle.  They have lost 15 consecutive meetings with the Warriors, including a OT loss at home and a 6-point loss on the road in their first two meetings this season.  I think it will be a different story this time around with one of the best home atmospheres for any NBA game this season as fans are excited about finally having a contender in Houston.  The Rockets are 9-3 SU at home this season.

Golden State is 2-6 SU & 3-4-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  Steve Kerr still cannot figure out a rotation that works for the Warriors playing up to a 12-man rotation at times.  The loss of backup PG De'Anthony Melton really threw the rotation off and the Warriors haven't been able to figure it out since.

I don't like the way this team is trending heading into the NBA Cup quarterfinals, but I think they are getting a lot of respect just because they are the Warriors.  Andrew Wiggins is questionable with an ankle injury and may not go, and even if he does he won't be 100%.  Draymond Green and Steph Curry are both playing banged up as well.  Bet the Rockets Wednesday.

20* Magic/Bucks NBA Cup No-Brainer on Milwaukee -7

The Milwaukee Bucks proved they are taking the NBA Cup seriously by going 4-0 in group play with the best point differential (+50) in the entire NBA.  That has given them the No. 1 seed in the East and an excellent chance to advance to Las Vegas.

The Bucks are healthier right now than they have been all season and a dangerous team when that's the case.  Both Giannis and Lillard are healthy, and now they have Khris Middleton back in the rotation for the first time all season.

The Orlando Magic are without their two best players in Paulo Banchero (29.0 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 5.6 APG) and Franz Wagner (24.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 5.7 APG).  Those two account for half of their 107.6 points per game average offensively.

In their first game without Wagner, they were able to beat the short-handed Phoenix Suns 115-110 who were without both Durant and Nurkic.  That game was at home, and while the Magic are 10-0 SU at home this season, they are just 7-9 SU on the road.

The last time the Magic beat the Bucks was at home and Wagner and Banchero combined for 51 points.  The Bucks didn't have Giannis for that game either.  The Bucks won 117-99 over the Magic in their last meeting in Milwaukee despite being without Giannis.  Wagner and Banchero combined for 52 points in the meeting prior in a 118-114 loss at Milwaukee.  And in the meeting prior, the Magic won 112-97 in Orlando with no Lillard and Banchero and Wagner combining for 50 points.

The Bucks are 16-2 SU in their last 18 meetings with the Magic with 15 of those 16 wins coming by 17 points or more.  It's safe to say the losses of Banchro and Wagner will be felt tonight for the Magic especially up against a fully healthy Bucks team, which hasn't been the case in recent meetings.  Bet the Bucks Tuesday.

15* Knicks/Raptors NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Toronto +6

The New York Knicks have their NBA Cup quarterfinal game on deck Wednesday.  I think they'll be overlooking the Toronto Raptors and looking ahead to that game.  I don't think we get the Knicks' best effort as a result.

The Knicks have benefited from a very soft schedule here of late.  They are 4-1 SU in their last five games but lost outright to Detroit as 8-point home favorites.  They also beat Charlotte, Orlando and New Orleans at home which are three of the most banged up teams in the NBA right now.  They also only beat Charlotte by 1 on the road during this stretch as 13-point favorites.

The Toronto Raptors have been one of the most undervalued teams in the NBA this season and they continue to be as 6-point home dogs tonight.  The Raptors are 16-8 ATS in all games.  They are as healthy as they have been all season right now and just took a fully healthy Mavericks team to the wire at home last time out.

The Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games with four outright upsets over the Pacers (twice), Timberwolves and Heat.  They will take the unmotivated Knicks to the wire again tonight and possibly pull off another upset.  Bet the Raptors Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston Rockets -2.5

The Houston Rockets will be highly motivated for a win tonight coming off two consecutive losses.  The Rockets are still 15-8 SU & 15-8 ATS this season and one of the best teams in the NBA.  I expect them to bounce back, especially since they're rested after having the last two days off.

The Los Angeles Clippers are coming off a 108-80 loss to the Timberwolves.  They are battling a laundry list of injuries right now as James Harden suffered a groin injury in that loss and is questionable.  They were already without Kawhi and Mann, and they could be without Dunn as well.  I just don't like this Clippers lineup right now.

The Rockets clearly like facing the Clippers as they have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings winning by 21, 11 and 8 points.  Two of those wins came earlier this season and the Clippers were much healthier for both of those games than they are now.  Bet the Rockets Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Kings OVER 232.5

The Utah Jazz have gone OVER the total in their last two games combining for 239 points with Oklahoma City and 240 points with Portland.  The Sacramento Kings have gotten healthy and are coming off a 140-113 win over the Spurs for 253 combined points.  The OVER is 5-2 in their last seven games overall.

The Kings and Jazz have combined for at least 232 points in eight of their last 10 meetings, and 228 or more in 11 of their last 12.  This has been a high-scoring series and it will continue to be tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.