20* Mavericks/Celtics ABC No-Brainer on Dallas +7.5

The Dallas Mavericks feel like they are playing on house money now after everyone counted them out down 3-0.  They responded with their best effort of the playoffs in a 122-84 home win over the Boston Celtics in Game 4.  The Celtics made the mistake of giving them life, and now will struggle to close out this series.

The pressure is squarely on Boston with all the failures they have had in trying to win a title with this current group of players.  I think that pressure will get to them in Game 5, and the Mavericks care-free approach will continue with another big effort and likely and outright win.

The Mavericks managed to win by 38 in Game 4 despite Doncic and Irving combining to go 1-of-14 from 3-point range.  Those two are due some positive shooting regression.  But the role players came to life finally and now many of those guys will have a lot of confidence going into Game 5 tonight.

Boston is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 home games when revenging a road loss.  Dallas is 34-17 ATS in road games this season.  The toughest game if the close out game, and Boston is really feeling the pressure now of trying to win a title.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 5 Monday.

15* Celtics/Mavericks ABC ANNIHILATOR on Boston ML -105

The Dallas Mavericks had their last-ditch effort to make this a series come up short.  They nearly erased a 21-point deficit to the Celtics in Game 3 getting it down to 1 point.  But Luka Doncic fouled out, and they couldn't close the deal as the Celtics made the big plays down the stretch to take a commanding 3-0 series lead.  I question Dallas' mental state coming into this one.

Doncic and Irving combined for 62 points in Game 3 and it still wasn't enough.  That's because the Mavericks are getting nothing from their role players in this series.  If they couldn't get it in Game 3, they aren't going to get it in Game 4 either.  There's just too much on Doncic and Irving's shoulders and they can't handle it.

Of course, the Celtics are showing why they are one of the best defensive teams in the league.  They are making life difficult on Irving and Doncic, and they are taking away the corner 3-pointers from PJ Washington and company that have been huge in the Mavericks getting this far.  They have held the Mavericks below 100 points in all three games in this series.

The Celtics are so close they can taste it, and they won't let this opportunity to sweep by by the wayside.  Bet the Celtics on the Money Line Friday.

20* Celtics/Mavs ABC No-Brainer on Dallas ML -121

After dropping the first two games of this series in Boston, this is a must-win game for the Dallas Mavericks in Game 3 if they want to get back in this series.  I think they will play much better when they return home for Game 3 tonight, while the Celtics may relax a little with a commanding 2-0 lead.

Luka Doncic showed up in Boston but hasn't gotten any help.  All players for the Mavericks other than Doncic are 5-of-32 (15.6%) combined from 3-point range in this series.  Role players always play much better at home in the friendly confines, and I expect that to be the case for the Mavericks in Game 3.

Kyrie Irving was basically a no-show in the first two games in Boston.  He will have his best game of the series by far in Game 3 where he will be much more comfortable.  It has been hostile for Irving in Boston since stomping on the logo and he hasn't handled it well.  But he will handle playing in front of supporting fans much better in Dallas.

Kristaps Porzingis looked to reaggravate his calf injury in Game 2 and was noticeably limping.  Not having him at 100% the rest of the way would be a big blow to the Celtics as he has been a weapon the Mavericks haven't had an answer for.  I also don't expect Boston to get so many easy looks at the rim like they have in the first two games.  This Dallas defense has been the reason they have made it this far, and it will show up in a big way in Game 3.  Bet the Mavericks on the Money Line Wednesday.

25* NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Mavericks +7.5

The Dallas Mavericks failed to show up in Game 1.  They shot 41.7% from the field, 7-of-27 (25.9%) from 3-point range and 12-of-19 (63.2%) from the FT line.  Nothing went right for them offensively.  I think with two days off in between games to adjust, we get a much better effort from the Mavericks in Game 2 in Boston.

The Celtics shot 47.6% from the field and 16-of-42 (38.1%) from 3 and really put Game 1 away early thanks to a hot start from Kristaps Porzingis.  Things came very easily for the Celtics in Game 1, but they won't come nearly as easy in Game 2.  And we've seen the Celtics upset in a pair of Game 2's thus far in these playoffs losing to the Heat outright by 10 as 14-point favorites and to the Cavaliers outright by 24 as 13-point favorites.  They tend to relax after taking Game 1. 

Dallas is 34-17 ATS in road games this season. The Mavericks are 12-4 ATS in road games against Eastern Conference opponents this season. Dallas is 33-17 ATS in its last 50 games after scoring 100 points or less. Bet the Mavericks in Game 2 Sunday.

20* Mavericks/Celtics ABC No-Brainer on Dallas +6.5

The Dallas Mavericks have been through the gauntlet beating the Clippers, Thunder and Timberwolves to get here while being the road team in all three series.  They have been a different team since trading for PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford as they have become one of the best defensive teams in the NBA.

Indeed, the Mavericks are 28-9 SU & 27-10 ATS in their last 37 games overall.  I like the fact that they got some rest but not too much rest to the point that they would be rusty by dispatching of the Timberwolves in five games.  I worry about the rust factor for the Celtics, who have been off for the last nine days since sweeping the Pacers.

The Celtics were very fortunate to get an easy route to the playoffs due to injuries to opposing teams.  Jimmy Butler was out for the Heat along with a couple others.  Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen were out for the Cavaliers.  And Tyrese Haliburton got hurt in Game 2 and didn't play in Games 3 and 4.  Plus, the Pacers arguably should have been up 3-1 as they blew late leads in three of the games in losses by 3, 3 and 5 points.

This big step up in class for the Celtics will come as a shock to the system.  The Mavericks will offer a lot more resistance than those three banged-up teams did.  The Celtics will get back Kristaps Porzingis for this series, but I imagine they will be cautious with him in Game 1.  The Mavericks should dominate the boards in this series as their bigs offer much more of a presence than Porzingis and Horford will for the Celtics.

Dallas is 9-1 ATS off a blowout win by 20 points or more this season.  The Mavericks are 12-3 ATS in road games against Eastern Conference opponents this season.  Dallas is 34-16 ATS in all road games this season.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 1 Thursday.

20* Mavericks/Timberwolves TNT No-Brainer on Minnesota -4.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves were due some positive shooting regression and some positive regression in close games.  The Mavericks out shot them in the first three games of the series drastically and they were still all 50/50 games in the final three minutes.  Dallas won all of them.

Minnesota has life now after a 105-100 victory in Game 4 as they shot 52.7% while Dallas shot just 42%.  I love some of the adjustments they made by trailing Luka Doncic and not letting him have a bunch of step backs, which is his game.  They funneled him to the rim and he looked a lot more uncomfortable in Game 4.

I think the Timberwolves have a legitimate shot to come back and win this series, and I'm expecting a blowout victory in their favor in Game 5 at home.  Dereck Lively II is questionable to play tonight after sitting Game 4.  He is their best rebounder and rim defender, and the Timberwolves were able to get to the rim at will without him.  Even if he plays he won't be 100%.  Bet the Timberwolves Thursday.

20* Timberwolves/Mavs TNT No-Brainer on Minnesota +1.5

To say the Dallas Mavericks are due some negative shooting regression would be a massive understatement.  They shot 49.4% in Game 1, 48.8% in Game 2 and 55.9% in Game 3 including 14-of-28 (50%) from 3-point range.  I don't think Doncic and Irving can keep up this pace in Game 4 tonight.

To say the Timberwolves are due some positive shooting regression would also be an understatement.  They shot 42.7% from the field in Game 1, 41.2% in Game 2 and just 9-of-30 (30%) from 3-point range in Game 3.  And despite losing the shooting battle in all three games, the Timberwolves had a great chance to win all three in the final 3 minutes.

The Mavericks just lost Dereck Lively II to a neck injury in Game 3 and he is doubtful to play tonight.  The Timberwolves really attacked the rim when he wasn't on the court and will have plenty of success doing just that tonight.  Lively II along with Gafford are the reason the Mavericks have been so dominant on the interior defensively.  Losing their leading rebounder in Lively II is a sneaky injury that isn't being factored in enough with all of the dirty work he does for this team.

Minnesota is 11-2 ATS following three or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.  Dallas is 8-18 ATS in its last 26 home games off a home win.  The Timberwolves are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS on the road in these playoffs.  This series isn't over just yet.  Bet the Timberwolves in Game 4 Tuesday.

20* Celtics/Pacers ESPN No-Brainer on Indiana +8.5

The Indiana Pacers should be up 2-1 on the Boston Celtics in this series.  This is a much more evenly matched series than these lines have suggested, and they should not be catching 8.5 points in Game 4 tonight.

The Pacers' biggest strength is their depth, and with only one day of rest in between every game so far that works in their favor the longer this series goes.  The Celtics are still without Kristaps Porzingis and now Luke Kornet is out, giving them zero rim protection inside.

The Pacers took advantage in Game 3 and got to the rim at will, and they will get to the rim at will again in Game 4.  The Pacers only shot 5-of-22 (22.7%) from 3 in Game 3 and still only lost by 3.  They are due some positive shooting regression in that department as well.

The Pacers are 11-1 SU in their last 12 home games with their lone loss coming in 3 points in Game 4.  They have a tremendous home-court advantage.  Bet the Pacers in Game 4 Monday.

20* Timberwolves/Mavs TNT No-Brainer on Minnesota +3.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves shot 42.7% while the Dallas Mavericks shot 49.4% in Game 1 with the Mavericks winning 108-105.  The Timberwolves shot 41.2% while the Mavericks shot 48.8% in Game 2 with Dallas winning 109-108.

As you can see, the two games were decided by a combined 4 points.  It's safe to say the Timberwolves are due some positive shooting regression in this series, while it will be hard for the Mavericks to keep up this pace against the best defensive team in the league.  I think we get that positive regression in Game 3 for the Timberwolves.

Minnesota has actually played its best basketball on the road in these playoffs.  Indeed, the Timberwolves are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS on the road in the postseason.  They beat the Suns by 17 and 6, and they beat the Nuggets by 7, 26 and 8 points in their five road victories.

Minnesota has been a resilient team all season and will respond in Game 3 tonight.  The Timberwolves are 11-3 ATS when revenging a home loss this season.  The Timberwolves are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games against teams that average 7 or fewer steals per game in the 2nd half of the season.  Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.

20* Celtics/Pacers ABC No-Brainer on Indiana +7.5

The Indiana Pacers may not have Tyrese Haliburton tonight.  But teams tend to rally in that first game without their star player, and I expect the Pacers to do just that tonight.  TJ McConnell is one of the best backup PG's in the NBA with not only his ability to run the offense, but also his ability to defend.  He has been a monster in these playoffs.

The Pacers are also one of the deepest teams in the NBA which is their biggest strength, so the loss of Haliburton won't hurt them as much as it would most teams.  And this Indiana team has been dynamite at home in these playoffs with one of the biggest home-court advantages in the NBA.

Indeed, the Pacers are a perfect 11-0 SU in their last 11 home games including 6-0 in these playoffs.  They will feed off their home crowd tonight.  I also wouldn't be surprised if this is the 'clunker' game for the Celtics, who have one in every series.  They could let up knowing they likely won't have to face Haliburton and with a 2-0 lead in this series.  Bet the Pacers in Game 3 Saturday.

25* NBA Western Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves were coming off their biggest win in franchise history by coming back from 20 points down in the 2H to beat the defending champion Denver Nuggets on the road in Game 7.  It was not a good spot for them in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals against the Dallas Mavericks.

The Timberwolves looked flat and tired in Game 1.  I expect them to respond in a big way in Game 2 with a blowout victory.  Head coach Chris Finch will make the proper adjustments to slow down Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic, who combined for 63 points in Game 1.

The Mavericks just don't have many players that can beat the Timberwolves outside Irving and Doncic.  So expect the Timberwolves to put more focus on these two and to have a lot more success defensively.  After all, they are the best defensive team in the NBA with their ability to protect the rim and their length on the perimeter.

Anthony Edwards in particular looked gassed in Game 1.  He will respond in a big way in Game 2.  The Mavericks don't have an answer for him defensively.  He will be in full on attack mode.  The Timberwolves are due some positive shooting regression after shooting just 42.7% in Game 1 including 61.1% from the FT line.  The Mavericks shot 49.4% as a team and are due some negative shooting regression.

Minnesota is 11-2 ATS when revenging a home loss this season.  The Timberwolves are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games when revenging a loss as a home favorite.  Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 27-9 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Minnesota is a resilient bunch that will respond in a big way tonight.  Bet the Timberwolves in Game 2 Friday.

20* Pacers/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Indiana +9

The Indiana Pacers committed 21 turnovers and made 15 fewer free throws than the Boston Celtics and still should have beaten them in Game 1.  This series is clearly a lot closer than the oddsmakers suggest.

The Celtics got fortunate to catch the Miami Heat without Jimmy Butler and and a few others and the Cleveland Cavaliers without Donovan Mitchell and Jarett Allen and a few others.  They had an easy path to get here and are overvalued as a result.

The Celtics lost Game 2 outright at home to the Heat as 14.5-point favorites and Game 2 outright at home to the Cavaliers as 13-point favorites.  They tend to relax in these Game 2's at home, and have actually been better in the playoffs on the road than at home over the last couple seasons.  They don't have the kind of home-court advantage that these lines suggest.

The Pacers are playing their best basketball of the season right now and are healthy.  They won Game 6 116-103 at home over the Knicks and shot 53.8% as a team.  They won Game 7 130-109 as 2.5-point road dogs and shot 67.1% as a team.  They should have beaten the Celtics in their 133-128 Game 1 loss as 10-point dogs and shot 53.5% as a team.

The Pacers are an offensive juggernaut and have improved defensively in these playoffs.  They are also the deeper team, which makes it easier for them to handle this short turnaround than the Celtics.  Holiday played 48 minutes, Tatum 45, Brown 44, White 42 and Horford 40 in Game 1.  This is where not having Kristaps Porzingis really hurts them, especially with the Pacers attacking both Horford and Kornet with a ton of success.

I like how both Rick Carlisle and Tyrese Haliburton took responsibility for the Game 1 loss.  That will endear them to the rest of the players on this team, and I expect them to fire back with another big effort in Game 2 to try and even this series.  Each of the last three meetings between the Celtics and Pacers were decided by 5 points or fewer this season.  Bet the Pacers in Game 2 Thursday.

15* Mavericks/Timberwolves TNT ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 206.5

Defense is the No. 1 reason both the Dallas Mavericks and Minnesota Timberwolves have made it to the Western Conference Finals.  The Timberwolves have been the best defensive team in the NBA all season, and the Mavericks have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA since trading for Gafford and Washington.

The Timberwolves allow nothing at the rim with Gobert, Reid and Towns, and they have elite length on the perimeter in Edwards, McDaniels and Alexander-Walker.  They match up very well with the Mavericks as their length on the perimeter will give Doncic and Irving troubles.

The Mavericks allow nothing at the rim with Gafford and Lively protecting the paint.  This has made life much easier on them because Doncic and Irving are defensive liabilities.  But the Mavericks can hide these two on Conley and McDaniels most likely.

The Timberwolves just held the Nuggets to an average of 80 points per game in winning each of their last two games in this series.  The Mavericks held the Thunder to 101 points or fewer in three of their final four games.  Both teams will struggle to get to 100 in Game 1 tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Pacers/Celtics OVER 221.5

Let's compare this total to the totals in the five regular season meetings between the Celtics and Pacers.  The totals were set at 234 in Game 1, 245.5 in Game 2, 249.5 in Game 3, 247 in Game 4 and 246 in Game 5.  Now this total is 221.5 for Game 1 of this playoff series.  That fact alone shows there is value with the OVER.

The Pacers and Celtics combined for 253, 266, 219, 234 and 259 points in their five meetings this season.  They have averaged 246.2 combined points per game in their five meetings this season, which is roughly 25 points more than this 221.5-point total.

The Celtics have had the luxury of facing two banged up teams in the Cavaliers and Heat who were missing their best players and multiple players.  Now they have to take on a healthy Pacers team that ranks 2nd in the NBA in offensive rating.  The Celtics rank 1st in the NBA in offensive rating, and this is going to be a shootout type of series because of it, especially in Game 1.  Bet the OVER in Game 1 Tuesday.

20* Timberwolves/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 199.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  The longer a series goes on the more it favors the defenses over the offenses.  Games tend to be played more in the half court as well with fewer fast break opportunities.  NBA Game 7 UNDERS are now 13-4 in their last 17 tries.

This has been a very low-scoring series thus far with 209 or fewer combined points in five of the six games, including 186 in Game 2 and 185 in Game 6.  This despite one team shooting at least 50% from the floor in every game outside of Game 6.  I don't see either team shooting 50% in this winner-take-all contest.

Jamaal Murray suffered an elbow injury in Game 5 and shot 4-of-18 from the field.  He won't be 100% by Sunday.  Mike Conley Jr. is battling an achilles injury for the Timberwolves, and Anthony Edwards suffered a back injury in Game 6.  Both teams are pretty beat up right now, and that's another reason I don't expect either to have much success offensively.  Bet the UNDER in Game 7 Sunday.

15* Pacers/Knicks ABC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 209

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  The longer a series goes on the more it favors the defenses over the offenses.  Games tend to be played more in the half court as well with fewer fast break opportunities.  NBA Game 7 UNDERS are now 13-4 in their last 17 tries.

The New York Knicks are in a world of hurt offensively right now.  They already lost OG Anunoby to a hamstring injury earlier this series, and now Josh Hart suffered a strained abdomen in Game 6.  Both are highly questionable to play tonight, and if either or both go it will affect them more on offense than it does on defense.

The Knicks know their best strategy is to slow down the tempo and try and grind one out with all their injuries.  They will control the tempo playing at home, and it will be played at a snail's pace, which tends to be the case for all Game 7's.

Indiana is 16-3 UNDER in its last 19 road playoff games when attempting to close out a series.  New York is 9-1 UNDER when revenging a road loss by 10 points or more this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

25* NBA Western Conference Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Thunder/Mavs UNDER 210.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  The longer a series goes on the more it favors the defenses over the offenses.  Games tend to be played more in the half court as well with fewer fast break opportunities.

This has been a dead nuts UNDER series between two of the best defenses in these playoffs.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the first five games in this series with 206, 196 and 196 combined points in the last three meetings.

The Mavericks have surrounded Doncic and Irving with elite defenders like Gafford, Lively, Washington and Jones Jr.  That has been the key to their success in the 2nd half of the season.  The Thunder haven't topped 101 points in any of the last three games and are getting little help outside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

The Thunder have been dynamite in these playoffs defensively allowing 96 or fewer points in six of their nine playoff games.  They have allowed 105 points or fewer in eight of those nine.  I don't see either team topping 105 points in Game 6.

Dallas is 12-1 UNDER off an upset win as an underdog this season.  Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Saturday.

20* Nuggets/Timberwolves ESPN No-Brainer on Minnesota -2

We are getting the Minnesota Timberwolves at a discount tonight after losing the last three games of this series.  This has been the most resilient team in the NBA this season as that was actually the first time they have lost three consecutive games all season.  I trust their resolve here to get the job done in Game 6 at home and force a Game 7.

Mike Conley Jr. was a surprise scratch in Game 5 with an Achilles injury.  I think they played it cautious knowing their season wasn't on the line and that they would have a Game 6 at home.  Conley was present a shootaround today.  He makes all the difference for this team and takes a lot of pressure off Anthony Edwards Jr.  They need him to run the offense, space the floor and his elite defense on the other end.

The Nuggets can't keep up this torrid shooting against the best defense in the NBA in the Timberwolves.  They shot 53.7% in Game 3, 57% in Game 4 and 55% in Game 5.  That includes a combined 36-of-77 (46.8%) from 3-point range in those three wins.  They are due some negative shooting regression to say the least.

Denver is 19-35 ATS in its last 54 games off three or more consecutive wins.  Minnesota is 46-28 ATS in its last 74 games when revenging a loss.  Bet the Timberwolves in Game 6 Thursday.

25* NBA Western Conference Round 2 GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder showed they weren't too young and inexperienced for the moment in Game 4.  Trailing 2-1 in the series and down double-digits in the 2H, the Thunder easily could have folded.  Instead they fought back and won 100-96 to tie the series at 2-2 to regain home-court advantage.

That type of win is going to give the Thunder a ton of confidence moving forward, especially the way they did it.  They did it with defense mostly holding the Mavericks to 96 points.  They won the game despite shooting 38% from the field and 7-of-27 (25.9%) from 3.  Shai Gilgeous-Alexander put the team on his back down the stretch.

I can guarantee you the Thunder will shoot much better as a team in Game 5 at home.  Expect much better production from role players, and for Shai to do his thing.  Their defense will be there as well, and it will be a raucous atmosphere for Game 5 with these fans excited about this team and their potential to win a title.  I love how they play as a team and the entire team took the postgame interview in Game 4.  You can tell they just love playing for each other.

Luke Doncic is not 100% and he and Kyrie Irving both had poor games in Game 4 combining for just 27 points.  No team in the NBA defends Doncic and Irving as well as the Thunder, and the Mavericks just don't have the role players to beat them.  PJ Washington has done his part but it's unlikely he tops 20 points for a 4th consecutive game.

Dallas is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games after a combined score of 205 points or fewer.  Oklahoma City is 36-9 SU & 29-16 ATS at home this season.  Bet the Thunder in Game 5 Wednesday.

20* Timberwolves/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +4.5

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS and I fully expect the Minnesota Timberwolves to go on the road and pull the outright upset over the Nuggets tonight, though we'll take the points for some insurance.

The Nuggets got a 3-day break to regroup following losing the first two games of this series at home.  That break was huge, and they made some adjustments plus shot the lights out the last two games.  They aren't going to keep shooting it this well, and the Timberwolves are due some positive shooting regression.

The Nuggets shot 53.7% from the field and 14-of-29 (48.3%) from 3 in Game 3 and 57% and 13-of-29 (44.8%) from 3 in Game 4.  Aaron Gordon shot 11-of-12 from the field in Game 4 while three bench players in Braun, Holiday and Jackson combined for make 6-of-9 from 3.  None of those players are going to shoot it as well again in Game 5.

Everyone outside of Anthony Edwards played pretty poorly in Game 4.  I expect him to be dominant again and to also get some help.  His teammates shot a combined 6-of-20 (30%) from 3 in Game 4.  Expect more from Towns and Alexander-Walker in particular in Game 5.

Minnesota is 11-1 ATS when revenging a home loss this season.  The Timberwolves have been very resilient and I think they are ready for this moment in this critical game with the series tied at 2-2.  Bet the Timberwolves in Game 5 Tuesday.

20* Thunder/Mavericks TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +2

The Oklahoma City Thunder are fully healthy and highly motivated for a victory after losing their first two games of these playoffs.  They will make some good adjustments tonight to play Holmgren and Williams together more that will help them protect the rim and rebound.  Josh Giddey's minutes will be restricted, and Isaiah Joe will likely get more minutes which is their optimal lineup.

Luka Doncic is clearly nursing a knee injury and seems to get hurt in every game.  He is far from 100%.  Without him at 100%, the Mavericks aren't better than the Thunder.  PJ Washington has been dynamite from 3 the last two games and that's not going to last either.  I fully expect the Thunder to take Game 4 tonight and even this series.

Oklahoma City is 53-33 ATS in its last 86 games as a road underdog.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Thunder in Game 4 Monday.

15* Nuggets/Timberwolves TNT ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota -2

Anthony Edwards admitted he and his teammates did not show up for the fight in Game 3.  He guaranteed they will be ready for Game 4, and I believe him.  The Timberwolves will regain control of this series with a win and cover at home in Game 4.

The Nuggets shot 53.7% from the floor in Game 3 and 14-of-29 (48.3%) from 3-point range.  The Timberwolves shot 43.7% from the floor and 10-of-33 (30.3%) from 3.  Denver is due some negative shooting regression, while Minnesota is due some positive shooting regression.

Give the Nuggets credit for showing championship metal in Game 3 when they easily could have folded.  But they are dealing with injuries to Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Reggie Jackson.  Minnesota is fully healthy and the better team when that's the case.

The Timberwolves are 9-0 ATS when revenging a loss as a home favorite this season.  Minnesota is 11-0 ATS when revenging a home loss this season.  They have been a very resilient team in this spot.  Bet the Timberwolves in Game 4 Sunday.

20* Knicks/Pacers ABC No-Brainer on Indiana -5.5

The New York Knicks are running out of gas.  They played their starters big minutes all season and even bigger minutes in the playoffs.  They paid the price with the injury to OG Anunoby that kept him out in Game 3 and likely will keep him out in Game 4 as well.  Jalen Brunson is playing through injury, and the Knicks are forced to give guys like McBride and Burks minutes off the bench that they probably do not deserve.

Give the Knicks credit for fighting hard in Game 3 and only losing by 5 in a valiant effort.  But now this is a very tough turnaround for the Knicks with only one day off in between games and having to play an early Sunday afternoon game.  The Pacers are the fresher team with one of the deepest benches in the league, so this situation really favors them.

Plus, the Knicks lost by 5 despite shooting 14-of-27 (51.9%) from 3-point range in Game 3.  DiVencenzo shot 7-of-11 himself.  They aren't going to shoot that well again, and as a result it should be a blowout in the Pacers' favor.

If you have watched every game of this series like I have, you could easily make a case that the Pacers could be up 3-0 in this series instead of down 2-1.  They are arguably the better team, and with the situation and injuries in their favor, I anticipate a blowout victory in Game 4 to even this series.  Bet the Pacers in Game 4 Sunday.

20* Thunder/Mavericks ABC No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +3

The Dallas Mavericks responded in a big way in Game 2 by pulling the 119-110 upset as 5-point underdogs in Oklahoma City.  They had just about everything go right for them in that game, and there's a lot of reasons I believe the Thunder return the favor in Game 3 and regain home-court advantage in this series.

The Mavericks shot 18-of-37 (48.6%) from 3 in Game 2 and were still life and death with the Thunder.  They got big games from role players in PJ Washington who scored 29 points and made 7-of-11 from 3.  Tim Hardaway Jr. had 17 points and a bunch of clutch shots to stop Thunder runs.  Those two aren't going to be nearly as good in Game 3.

Luka Doncic had a big 1st quarter and finished 5-of-8 from 3 after previously struggling from distance in these playoffs.  But he is banged up and far from 100%, and without him at 100% it's a huge blow.  Kyrie Irving is struggling to get good shots because the Thunder are defending him very well, and Lu Dort defends Doncic about as well as anyone in the NBA.

This is a very quick turnaround from Thursday with tip set for 3:30 EST Saturday afternoon in Dallas.  Well, the Thunder are the much deeper team and they are fully healthy and better equipped to handle this short turnaround.  Doncic and Irving both played more than 41 minutes Thursday and I think the quick turnaround hurts them because they are not very deep.  Doncic and company won't have much left in the tank for this one, and they won't be able to match their Game 3 shooting performance.

Oklahoma City is 53-32 ATS in its last 85 games as a road underdog.  Plays on any team (OKC) - revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite, off an upset loss as a favorite are 171-106 (61.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Thunder in Game 3 Saturday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference Round 2 GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers -4.5

I grabbed the opener at -4.5 on the Pacers as soon as this line came out after Game 2 concluded Wednesday night.  I did so with the anticipation that the line would move toward the Pacers considering all the injuries the Knicks are dealing with right now.  So hopefully long-term clients grabbed the best line they could find early.

This line has ballooned to Pacers 7/-7.5 as of Thursday.  It would still be a 25* up to -6, but a 20* at anything higher.  I think the Pacers win this game in a blowout and likely cover all numbers given the spot and the injuries to the Knicks.

The Knicks were already short-handed without Julius Randle and Bojan Bogdanovic.  Now OG Anunoby suffered a hamstring injury in Game 2 and sat out the 4th quarter.  Chances are he'll sit out Game 3, too.  Anunoby has been the key to their success since the trade and had 28 points in the first three quarters.  Jalen Brunson sat out the 2nd quarter with an injured foot, but returned in the 2H to lead the comeback victory from double-digits down in Game 2.  He's not 100% and the Knicks could even elect to rest him in Game 3, though that's unlikely.

Tom Thibodeu is going to be forced to give McBride, Achiuwa and Burks more minutes than he wants to.  I think the Knicks will be satisfied with the fact that they held serve at home by coming up clutch in the final minutes of both Game 1 and Game 2, but also getting a lot of help from the refs.  I think the Knicks will have a letdown in Game 3, while we get a max effort from the Pacers knowing they are not out of this series with all the injuries to the Knicks.  Plus, they will likely get the benefit of the whistle in Game 3 at home due to all the negative publicity the refs have received for their favoritism of the Knicks in the first two games.

The fact of the matter is the Pacers are every bit as good as the Knicks and easily could have won both games in New York.  They just didn't execute late and didn't get any help from the refs, either.  Their depth is their biggest asset, and that will be on display here in Game 3.  There will only be one day in between Games 2 and 3 for the Knicks to recover, and that's not enough given their current injury situation.  The Pacers have been picking up full court and playing at a break-neck pace, which will pay dividends for them the longer this series goes with how short-handed the Knicks are.  I think the Knicks finally break and get blown out in Game 3.  Bet the Pacers Friday.

20* Cavs/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 211.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are without their most important defender in Jarrett Allen.  They have had to play a lot more small ball without him, and it has made them a better offensive team but a much worse defensive team.  We'll take advantage and back the OVER in Game 2 tonight.

The OVER is 3-1 in Cavaliers last four games without Allen with the one under staying under by just 2 points.  Game 1 went OVER in this series despite the Cavaliers shooting just 41.1% overall and 11-of-42 (26.2%) from 3-point range.  They came into this series tired after their 7-game series with the Magic.  They should be fresher and shoot better in Game 2 as a result.

The Cavaliers and Celtics have combined for at least 212 points in eight of their last nine meetings with the lone exception being 209.  That makes for an 8-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 211.5-point total.

Boston is 13-3 OVER in its last 16 home games with a total set of 210 to 219.5 points.  The Celtics are 11-3 OVER after allowing 105 points or less in two consecutive games this season.  Bet the OVER in Game 2 Thursday.

15* Pacers/Knicks TNT ANNIHILATOR on OVER 218.5

There's a ton of value on the OVER in Game 2 today when you compare this total to the three totals from the regular season.  The Pacers and Knicks had totals of 234.5, 235.5 and 248.5 in their three regular season meetings.  The total of 217.5 was too low in Game 1 as these teams combined for 238 points, and the total of 218.5 in Game 2 is too low as well.

The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings with 232 or more combined points in six of those seven meetings.  The one game that didn't get to 232 or more the Knicks shot 39.8% from the floor and 21.1% from 3.  That's what it is going to take to keep this one under 218.5 combined points.

The Knicks have been playing playoff basketball for a long time now as they were fighting hard for the No. 2 seed in the East.  That's important because the OVER is 10-1-1 in their last 12 games overall.  In fact, the OVER is 16-2-1 in their last 19 games overall dating back further.  They have quietly been a dead nuts OVER team.

The Pacers just basically played the Bucks without Giannis for the entire series and without Lillard for most of it.  They went 4-1 OVER in their final five games in that series with 218 or more combined points in four of the five.  The Pacers are 10-2 OVER in their last 12 games overall dating back further.  They are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 2nd in the NBA in pace with an elite offense and suspect defense.  This is a very low total for a game involving Indiana.  Bet the OVER in Game 2 Wednesday.

15* Mavericks/Thunder TNT ANNIHILATOR on OVER 218

This is a very low total between the Mavericks and Thunder in Game 1 of this series tonight when you compare this total to the totals from the regular season.  The Mavericks and Thunder had totals of 233.5, 235.5 and 238.5 in their three meetings prior to the Mavericks resting all their starters with a total of 226.5 in the regular season finale.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings with 221 or more combined points in all eight meetings, which would make for an 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 218-point total.  They combined for 246, 257 and 245 points in their three regular season meetings in which both teams were near fully healthy and playing all their starters.  Bet the OVER in Game 1 Tuesday.

15* Pacers/Knicks TNT ANNIHILATOR on OVER 216.5

There's a ton of value on the OVER in Game 1 today when you compare this total to the three totals from the regular season.  The Pacers and Knicks had totals of 234.5, 235.5 and 248.5 in their three regular season meetings.  This total has been set at 216.5 for Game 1 of this series.

The OVER is 4-2 in the last six meetings with 232 or more combined points in five of those six meetings.  The one game that didn't get to 232 or more the Knicks shot 39.8% from the floor and 21.1% from 3.  That's what it is going to take to keep this one under 216.5 combined points.

The Knicks have been playing playoff basketball for a long time now as they were fighting hard for the No. 2 seed in the East.  That's important because the OVER is 9-1-1 in their last 11 games overall.  In fact, the OVER is 15-2-1 in their last 18 games overall dating back further.  They have quietly been a dead nuts OVER team.

The Pacers just basically played the Bucks without Giannis for the entire series and without Lillard for most of it.  They went 4-1 OVER in their final five games in that series with 218 or more combined points in four of the five.  The Pacers are 9-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall dating back further.  They are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in the NBA in pace with an elite offense and suspect defense.  This is a very low total for a game involving Indiana.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Magic/Cavs ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 196

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Teams get more familiar with one another the longer a series goes on.  Teams know how to defend one another, especially when we get to a Game 7.  There is perhaps no better bet in the NBA playoffs than Game 7 UNDERS for this reason.

The Magic and Cavaliers haven't combined for more than 207 points in any game in this series.  They went for 180 and 182 combined points in their first two games in Cleveland before getting to 207 in Game 5.  I think we see a similar result here to those first two games with all that's at stake in this winner-take-all Game 7.

Cleveland is 11-2 UNDER in its last 13 playoff games.  Orlando is 12-2 UNDER In Sunday games this season.  I also like backing UNDERS in these early start games because players aren't used to playing this early, and it's a sleepy 1:00 EST start time.  Bet the UNDER in Game 7 Sunday.

15* Timberwolves/Nuggets TNT ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +4.5

I think the Minnesota Timberwolves are the better team in this series.  They were knocked out of the playoffs by the Nuggets last year.  But the Timberwolves have taken a big leap forward this season, while the Nuggets aren't as strong as they were last year with the lack of depth they have on the bench.  The Timberwolves have one of the best benches in the NBA.

The Timberwolves are the best defensive team in the NBA which gives them a chance.  They have great length with Gobert, Towns, McDaniels and Reid to throw at the likes of Jokic, Murray and Porter Jr.  Mike Conley Jr. and Anthony Edwards are also great defenders, and Edwards is quickly becoming one of the best players in the NBA today that the Timberwolves know they can lean on in crunch time.

These teams split the season series but the Timberwolves outscored them by 22 points in their four meetings.  They swept the Suns which is no small feat considering their star power with Durant, Booker and Beal.  They are ready for the moment this year, and it starts with a Game 1 upset tonight.  Bet the Timberwolves Saturday.

20* Cavs/Magic ESPN No-Brainer on Orlando -3.5

The Orlando Magic have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA this season.  They are 31-11 SU & 29-13 ATS at home this season.  I expect them to even this series in Game 6 and win this game by 4-plus points to get us the cover.

The Magic won 121-83 at home in Game 3 and 112-89 at home in Game 4 as these two games in Orlando weren't even close.  They nearly pulled off the upset in Game 5, only losing 104-103 in Cleveland.  It looks like the Magic are the better team in this series right now.

That's especially the case now with the Cavaliers missing Jarrett Allen, who sat out Game 5 with injured ribs.  He has been their most important player in this series with all he does on defense and on the boards.  He must really be injured if he's sitting out a Game 5 of a series that's tied 2-2.

Orlando is 17-4 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Magic are 7-0 ATS in home games with a total of 200 to 209.5 this season.  JB Bickerstaff is 0-7 SU on the road in the playoffs as the coach of the Cavaliers.  Bet the Magic in Game 6 Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/76ers UNDER 200.5

These are two dead nuts UNDER teams.  The Knicks rank dead last (30th) in the NBA in pace, and the 76ers are playing much slower than normal in the playoffs to accommodate Joel Embiid, who is limping up and down the court with an injured knee.

The last two games in this series were extremely low-scoring, and it should be more of the same in Game 6 tonight.  The Knicks won Game 4 in Philadelphia 97-92 for just 189 combined points.  Game 5 was tied 97-97 at the end of regulation for just 194 combined points before going to OT.  I don't expect either team to get to 100 tonight.  Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Thursday.

20* Knicks/76ers TNT No-Brainer on New York +3.5

The New York Knicks have been a resilient team all season.  They are 22-11 ATS off a loss this season and 30-17 ATS in their last 47 games when revenging a loss.  The Philadelphia 76ers are 11-24 ATS in their last 35 games off an upset win as an underdog.

After blowing a 6-point lead in the final 28 seconds, I expect the Knicks to respond in a big way in Game 6 tonight and close out this series.  With only one day of rest in between games, it really favors the Knicks.  They are the deeper team.  The 76ers rely too much on Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey to get all of their offense.  

Embiid is hobbled with a torn knee and running out of steam, and you could see it when he committed nine turnovers in Game 5.  Fortunately for him, Maxey bailed him out with arguably the best game of his career, scoring 46 points on 17-of-30 shooting including 7-of-12 from 3-point range.  That's not going to happen again, and the Knicks will make the proper adjustments to slow him down and make someone else beat them.

Plays on any team (New York) - when revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite, off an upset loss as a favorite are 170-105 (61.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Knicks in Game 6 Thursday.

20* Mavericks/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas -2.5

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team has won twice already.  The Clippers have one of the worst home-court advantages in the NBA.  The Mavericks are simply the better team in this series and that will show in Game 5 tonight.

The Clippers were able to steal Game 4 in Dallas thanks to shooting an unsustainable percentage.  They shot 53.7% from the field including a ridiculous 18-of-29 (62.1%) from 3.  Yet they still blew a 31-point lead and were life and death in a 116-111 victory.  Shooting regression will work against them in Game 5, and the Mavericks will grab a stranglehold in this series.

The Clippers could have made a title run with a healthy Kawhi Leonard, but he sat out Game 4 and is likely out for the rest of this series as his knee just hasn't responded like he was hoping it would.  And without Kawhi, the Mavericks are by far the superior team.  Even if he decides to play the Clippers have lost both games with him in the lineup.

Dallas is 9-0 ATS in road games when revenging a loss this season.  The Clippers are 7-19 ATS off a road win this season.  The Mavericks are 19-6 ATS as road favorites this season.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 5 Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Cavaliers UNDER 202

This has been a defensive series as both teams are struggling to make outside shots, and both are playing at a snail's pace.  The UNDER is 3-1 in this series with 180, 182, 204 and 201 combined points in the four games.  Both teams in Cleveland were the very low-scoring games with 180 and 182 combined points.

With this series tied 2-2, you know the defensive intensity will be there tonight.  The Magic just struggle scoring on the road putting up 83 and 86 points in their two games in Cleveland.  I don't expect them to have much offensive success in this one.  They shot 55.8% in Game 4 and 51.1% in Game 3 at home, but just 32.6% in Game 1 and 36.2% in Game 2 in Cleveland.

Cleveland is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 playoff games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* 76ers/Knicks TNT No-Brainer on New York -3.5

The New York Knicks are the better team in this series.  I cashed the Knicks in Game 4 as they pulled the upset in Philadelphia and grabbed a stranglehold on this series.  You could tell it sucked the life out of the 76ers, especially since New York fans took over the building.

Joel Embiid made excuses and called out Philadelphia fans after the game.  You can tell the 76ers are rattled.  Now Embiid had a migraine this morning and missed shootaround.  It's going to be 1-2-3 Cancun for the 76ers regardless of whether or not he plays tonight.

Few teams have a home-court advantage as strong as the Knicks right now.  These fans are hungry for playoff success and this is one of their favorite teams ever.  You can see why because the chemistry on the Knicks is perfect, and these guys love playing for one another.  Jalen Brunson is a star and scored a franchise record 47 points in a playoff game to close out the 76ers in Game 4.

Even if Embiid goes, he is not conditioned very well right now and there is only one day in between games.  The 76ers just rely on him and Maxey to do everything for them.  There's no depth on this team, Buddy Hield isn't even playing, and the 76ers are cooked.  I expect a blowout win in favor of the Knicks tonight in Game 5 to close out this series.  Bet the Knicks Tuesday.

15* Lakers/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +7.5

The Los Angeles Lakers have had a lead for 136 of the 192 minutes played in this series.  They have really been the better team for large stretches despite being down 3-1 in this series.  The Nuggets gave them life in Game 4 as the Lakers were finally able to close, and now they got that monkey off their back from losing 11 straight to the Nuggets in this head-to-head series.

Look for the Lakers to be playing free and loose in Game 5 tonight.  Everyone left them for dead down 3-0, but they have a legit shot to get back in this series now.  That's especially the case with Jamal Murray questionable with a calf injury suffered late in Game 4.  If he doesn't play this line will crash, and I like the Lakers to cover this 7.5-point spread even if he does and is at less than 100%.  The Nuggets just don't have the depth they have had in recent seasons.  Bet the Lakers Monday.

15* Timberwolves/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 212.5

Minnesota controlled the tempo in the first two games of this series at home.  They won 120-95 and 105-93.  Phoenix got more of their tempo in Game 3 in a 126-109 loss that saw 235 combined points.  It will be more of the same in Game 4 today.

The Timberwolves are the best defensive team in the NBA which is why they have had success in this series.  But I think they let go of the rope a little here after taking a commanding 3-0 series lead.  I expect the best offensive performance of the series for the Suns in Game 4 tonight.

But the problem with the Suns is they don't defend and get owned on the board.  The Timberwolves have scored 126, 120 and 105 points in the first three games in this series while dominating the board.  They will continue to light it up offensively in this one.  Bet the OVER in Game 4 Sunday.

15* Knicks/76ers ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on New York +4.5

The New York Knicks are the better, deeper team in this series.  They took care of business at home winning the first two games of this series.  They had a bit of a letdown in Game 3 while the 76ers wanted it more.  I think the Knicks fire back in Game 4 today.

The 76ers actually trailed at halftime and had everything go right for them and still struggled to put the Knicks away in Game 3.  They shot 54.7% as a team and 15-of-31 (48.4%) from 3.  Joel Embiid scored 50 points on only 19 shots.  That's not going to happen again.  The 76ers made 15 more FT than the Knicks and got the benefit of the whistle, which is also unlikely to happen again.

The Knicks are 21-11 ATS off a loss this season, including 13-5 ATS off a road loss.  They are a very motivated, resilient bunch and I expect them to fire back in a big way in Game 4, especially after the dirty play Embiid made on Mitchell Robinson in Game 3.  Bet the Knicks in Game 4 Sunday.

20* Nuggets/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Denver -3

The Los Angeles Lakers are a dead team walking.  They just lost their 11th consecutive game to the Denver Nuggets in this head-to-head series in a must-win Game 3.  That's three blown halftime leads by the Lakers in three games in this series.

The Lakers are now completely demoralized and won't show up for Game 4.  Darvin Ham is making zero halftime adjustments and the Nuggets are making all the right moves after intermission.  Ham is a dead man walking.

The Lakers go too much iso ball in the 2H, and both Anthony Davis and LeBron James have had to play too many minutes because they are getting zero help.  They will once again run out of gas in the 2H, especially with only one day in between Games 3 and 4.  This series is over.  Bet the Nuggets in Game 4 Saturday.

15* Thunder/Pelicans TNT ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans +1

The New Orleans Pelicans were knocked out of the playoffs by the Oklahoma City Thunder in the play-in round last year.  Now they are down 2-0 in this series after losing the first two games on the road.  It's safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 when they return home today, and I expect them to get the job done with one of their best efforts of the season.

I think the 94-92 loss in Game 1 was hard to recover from because they had every chance to win.  The Thunder took advantage and crushed the Pelicans 124-92 in Game 2.  However, the Thunder shot 59% as a team and 14-of-29 (48.3%) from 3-point range in Game 2.  They are due some negative shooting regression.

The Pelicans are due some positive shooting regression after shooting 38.5% as a team and 11-of-39 (28.2%) from 3 in Game 1, and 7-of-26 (26.9%) from 3 in Game 2.  Role players usually play much better at home because they are a lot more comfortable.  They weren't comfortable in those two road games in a hostile crowd in OKC.

The Pelicans were a tired team coming into this series as they were life and death at the end of the season trying to win games to get out of the play-in.  Then they had two play-in games.  But they have now had two days off in between games for a second consecutive game and this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days.  That's another reason I think they are primed for a big effort because they are fresh.  Bet the Pelicans in Game 3 Saturday.

15* Cavaliers/Magic TNT Early ANNIHILATOR on Orlando -2

The Orlando Magic have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  They are 30-11 SU & 28-13 ATS at home this season.  After shooting terribly in Cleveland the first two games, they shot 51.1% and won 121-83 at home in Game 3.

I don't expect it to come as easily for the Magic at home in Game 4, but I do expect them to get another win and cover to even this series.  Donovan Mitchell got hobbled yet again in Game 3 and wasn't himself, and even though he will play in Game 4 he isn't anywhere near 100%.  The Cavaliers are vulnerable when that's the case.

The Cavaliers are 0-6 SU on the road in the playoffs under current head coach JB Bickerstaff.  The Magic are 20-7 ATS as home favorites this season.  Cleveland is 9-20 ATS in its last 29 games as a road underdog of 6 points or less.  Bet the Magic in Game 4 Saturday.

20* NBA Playoffs TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bucks/Pacers OVER 223

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team playing at one of the fastest paces in the NBA, with an elite offense and a suspect defense.  This total is too low for a game involving the Pacers, especially since they are playing at home and will control the tempo.

The Bucks have not had a problem scoring and won't mind getting up and down with the Pacers.  The Bucks have a deep bench and missing Giannis is much more detrimental to them defensively than it is offensively.  The Bucks will get their tonight as well.

Nine of the last 10 totals between the Pacers and Bucks have been set at 230 or higher.  The lone exception was the 223.5-point total in Game 2, which sailed OVER with 233 combined points.  The Pacers and Bucks have combined for 233 or more points in 11 of their last 12 meetings, making for an 11-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 223-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles +1.5

The Lakers have deserved better than being down 2-0 in this series.  This series is much closer than that 2-0 lead for the Nuggets would indicate.  I expect their hard work to pay off in Game 3 and for the Lakers to finally end this 10-game losing streak to the Nuggets.

The Lakers outplayed the Nuggets for three quarters in Game 1 but were outscored 32-18 in the 3Q and lost by 11.  The Lakers outplayed the Nuggets for 47 minutes in Game 2 but lost 101-99 on a Jamal Murray buzzer-beater.  Murray got hot late after they had shut him down up until that point.

I just think the Nuggets are more vulnerable than they were last season when they won the title.  They have less depth and rely too much on Jokic and Murray.  Their role players will struggle on the road here.

The Lakers have more depth than last season, and I expect their role players to play much better than they did in Denver.  Role players always tend to play better at home.  LeBron and AD will continue to get whatever they want as they have really dominated in the first two games.  Expect these two to close it out in the 4th finally.  Bet the Lakers in Game 3 Thursday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference Round 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Orlando Magic ML -120

The Orlando Magic are in a must-win in Game 3 after dropping their first two games in Cleveland.  They were identical 5.5-point dogs in both Games 1 and 2, and now they are basically a PK in Game 3.  That's not a big enough adjustment for flipping home courts in their advantage in this must-win game.

This is a young Magic team that needs home court to feel comfortable.  They have dominated at home all season, going 29-11 SU & 27-13 ATS in their 40 games in Orlando.  I expect the Cavaliers to relax just enough after handling their business at home to let the Magic have a lot more success in Game 3.

Of course, the Magic cannot possibly shoot as poorly as they did in Cleveland either.  They shot 32.6% overall and 8-of-37 (21.6%) from 3 in Game 1 and 36.2% overall and 9-of-35 (25.7%) from 3 in Game 2.  It's safe to say they are due some positive shooting regression, and I look for them to get it at home.  Bet the Magic on the Money Line Thursday.

20* Pelicans/Thunder TNT No-Brainer on New Orleans +8

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a young team getting their first taste of the playoffs.  They played like it in Game 1 being very fortunate to come away with a 94-92 victory over the New Orleans Pelicans.  I don't expect Game 2 to be a walk in the park for them, either.

The Pelicans are a veteran team with playoff experience and know the importance of trying to get one in Oklahoma City.  They shot just 38.5% as a team and 11-of-39 (28.2%) from 3-point range in Game 1 and still only lost by 2.  They dominated on the boards including 18 offensive rebounds, and the Thunder don't have an answer for Jonas Valanciunas in this series.  Dominating the board is sustainable, shooting that poorly again is not.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series.  In fact, the road team is 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Neither team has been favored by more than 5.5 points in any of the last 12 meetings with the exception of the 8.5-point spread in Game 1.  This 8-point spread in Game 2 is too high as well.  Bet the Pelicans Wednesday.

20* Mavericks/Clippers TNT No-Brainer on Dallas ML -122

The Dallas Mavericks shot 2-of-18 from 3 in the 1H and scored only 8 points total in the 2Q in Game 1 against the Los Angeles Clippers.  They still only lost by 12.  That was as bad as it could have gone for the Mavericks as Daniel Gafford picked up two early fouls and changed their game plan.  Game 2 will go much differently tonight.

I believe the Mavericks are the better team and that will show in Game 2 tonight.  The Mavericks went 12-1 SU & 11-2 ATS in their 13 games to close out the regular season in which they were trying to win games and healthy.  They are fully healthy now and trying to win games.

The Clippers shot 18-of-36 (50%) from 3-point range in Game 1.  That's not going to happen again.

Dallas is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games when revenging a loss as a favorite.  Bet the Mavericks on the Money Line in Game 2 Tuesday.

15* Pacers/Bucks NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +1.5

The Indiana Pacers went 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS against the Milwaukee Bucks in the regular season.  This is clearly a great matchup for them, but it didn't play out that way in Game 1 as Damian Lillard scored 35 first half points and it was just too much for them to overcome.

Lillard won't be as hot again, and the Bucks won't out shoot the Pacers like they did in Game 1.  The Pacers shot just 39.6% from the field and 8-of-39 (20.5%) from 3-point range.  I have to think they will have some major positive shooting regression in their favor in Game 2.

The Bucks are expected to be without Giannis Antetokounmpo again in Game 2.  They can play one good game without him, but to continue to play great games without him is unsustainable.  He's one of the best players in the NBA for a reason with all he can do on both ends of the court.

Indiana is 26-11 ATS off an ATS loss this season.  The Pacers are 7-0 ATS in Tuesday road games this season.  Indiana is 28-14 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  The Pacers are 20-6 ATS against teams that average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  Bet the Pacers in Game 2 Tuesday.

25* NBA Western Conference Round 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles +7.5

This is a must-win game for the Lakers if they want to give Denver a series.  I expect their biggest effort of the season to try and get it done in Game 2.  They should not be catching 7.5 points to the Nuggets here tonight.

The Lakers outplayed the Nuggets in three of four quarters in Game 1.  Unfortunately, they came out flat after halftime after taking a 3-point lead into the break.  They lost the 3rd quarter 32-18.  I expect them to make the right adjustments coming out of the break this time around.

The Nuggets took 23 more shots than the Lakers and only committed 4 turnovers in Game 1 yet still only won by 11.  That's going to be very hard for them to replicate.  I expect Game 2 to come down to the wire with the Lakers with an excellent chance to pull off the outright upset, so getting 7.5 points here is a tremendous value.  Bet the Lakers in Game 2 Monday.

20* Pelicans/Thunder TNT Sunday Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +8.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder beat the Pelicans in the play-in round last year to knock them out of the playoffs.  The Thunder went on to lose to the Timberwolves in their next play-in game, so they didn't get the full playoff experience.

The Pelicans have not forgotten and they want revenge.  The Thunder are the No. 1 seed in the West, but none of these players have real playoff experience.  I think that will work against them and this young team is extremely vulnerable as a result.  They should not be 8.5-point favorites over the battle-tested Pelicans in Game 1 tonight.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series.  In fact, the road team is 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Neither team has been favored by more than 5.5 points in any of the last 11 meetings, so this 8.5-point spread is unprecedented.  It's simply too many points tonight.  Bet the Pelicans Sunday.

20* Lakers/Nuggets ABC No-Brainer on Los Angeles +7.5

The Los Angeles Lakers made the Western Conference Finals last year and got swept by the Denver Nuggets.  The series was much closer than the 4-game sweep would indicate as the Lakers just couldn't finish games late.  Three games were decided by 6 points or fewer.

The Lakers then went on to get swept by the Nuggets in the regular season.  It's safe to say the Lakers want revenge on the Nuggets, and it starts with Game 1 of this series as inflated 7.5-point dogs.  You're paying a tax on the Nuggets now after winning the NBA Finals last year, and I think they will be a great team to fade in these playoffs as a result.

The Lakers are finally nearly fully healthy and playing their best basketball of the season.  They went 12-3 SU in their last 15 games just to make the playoffs, including their clutch 110-106 road win at New Orleans in the play-in game.  They weren't afraid of the Nuggets by winning that game knowing that would be their matchup.  They 'want all that smoke', and I expect LeBron James and company to come up clutch and give the Nuggets a run for their money in this series, starting with Game 1.  Bet the Lakers Saturday.

20* Kings/Pelicans TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 219.5

Both play-in games went UNDER the total in the opening night of the playoffs and the UNDER is now 12-2 in play-in games since their inception.  Refs are letting a lot more physical contact go in these winner-take-all games.

The Kings have been a dead nuts UNDER team since losing two of their best shooters in Malik Monk and Kevin Heurter. The Kings have allowed 111 or fewer points in 20 of their last 21 games overall. The Kings have gone for 216 or fewer combined points in 12 of their last 16 games overall. They rank 6th in the NBA in defensive rating in their last 15 games.

The Pelicans have been a consistently great defensive team all season. They rank 6th in defensive rating this season and 6th since the All-Star Break. The Pelicans have allowed 112 or fewer points in 22 of their last 23 games overall. I don't see either team getting to 110 in this winner-take-all game. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Heat/76ers ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 208.5

Both play-in games went UNDER the total last night and the UNDER is now 12-2 in play-in games since their inception.  Refs are letting a lot more physical contact go in these winner-take-all games. And the Heat and 76ers are two dead nuts UNDER teams as it is.

The Heat rank 29th in pace and 5th in adjusted defense. The 76ers rank 18th in pace and 11th in adjusted defense. They are even better defensively with a healthy Joel Embiid in the lineup now. The Heat are even more of an UNDER team without PG Terry Rozier, who is out for this one. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Warriors/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State ML -135

The Golden State Warriors are as healthy as they have been all season. They have been in playoff mode for a month now and are playing their best basketball of the season as a result. They have gone 10-2 SU in their last 12 games overall heading into the play-in.

The Sacramento Kings have struggled down the stretch since losing the best 6th man in the NBA in Malik Monk along with Kevin Heurter. These are also two of their best shooters. They just don't have much productive depth, and that has really hurt them.

The Kings are 2-5 SU in their last seven games overall with their two wins coming against two of the worst teams in the NBA in the Blazers and Nets.

The Warriors knocked the Kings out of the playoffs last season and they have their number. I trust their championship pedigree to get the job done tonight especially since they are the healthier, more confident team playing the better basketball in this winner-take-all. Bet the Warriors on the Money Line Tuesday.

15* NBA Western Conference Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Clippers OVER 220.5

The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 8-0 OVER in their last eight games overall with 223 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  They are also 14-2 OVER in their last 16 games overall dating back further.

The Clippers are locked in to the No. 4 seed in the West with nothing to play for.  That means their backups are going to be getting a lot of run, and this is one of the deepest teams in the NBA.  It also means there will be zero defensive intensity on their end.  This one has shootout written all over it as a result.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder -19.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall to put themselves in position to clinch the No. 1 seed in the West.  They will clinch the No. 1 seed with a win today, and will be max motivated to do so.

The Dallas Mavericks are locked in to the No. 5 seed in the West.  They are one of the few Western Conference teams that are locked into their seeding.  As a result, they are resting all of their best players in Doncic, Irving, Lively II, Gafford, Washington, Jones Jr., Exum and Kleber.

It did not go well for the Mavericks last game without Doncic and Irving as they lost outright as 11-point home favorites to the Pistons 107-89, failing to cover the spread by 29 points.  But they even had four of those players that are sitting today playing in that game.  They will have arguably the worst lineup in the entire NBA playing today, and I don't see them staying within 20 points of the Thunder as a result.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies +13.5

The Denver Nuggets blew the No. 1 seed by losing 121-120 at the buzzer to the Spurs as 11.5-point favorites last game.  They are now in a 3-way tie with the Thunder and Timberwolves for 1st place in the West with one game to go.  But they lose the tiebreaker to both teams.

The problem is the Thunder are 19.5-point favorites over the Mavericks, who are sitting everyone today.  The Nuggets know they have no shot at the No. 1 seed, so they are likely to rest everyone today.  Jokic, Murray, Porter Jr., Gordon, Caldwell-Pope and several others are all questionable, but my anticipation is they sit.

The Nuggets have no business being 13.5-point road favorites over the Grizzlies without these guys.  This is what the line would be if they were all playing.  The Grizzlies continue to show up every night, which was the case last time out in their 123-120 loss to the Lakers are 16-point dogs.  This is a gritty team with a bunch of young players playing with something to prove.  LaRavia, Jackson, Goodwin and Pippen Jr. all scored 23 or more points against the Lakers.  Bet the Grizzlies Sunday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Celtics OVER 227

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in the NBA in pace and 28th in defensive rating.  The OVER is 6-1 in Wizards last seven games overall with 230 or more combined points in five of their last six.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Wizards.

The Celtics have rested their starters and will rest them again today.  But these backups are great offensively and terrible defensively.  They will be looking to get as many shots up as possible as this could be their final significant playing time.  The Celtics scored 131 points last game with their backups and will hang another big number on the Wizards, who I expect to keep pace.

The Celtics have really let go of the rope defensively since clinching the No. 1 seed in the East.  The OVER is 10-3 in Celtics last 13 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Wizards +9.5

The Washington Wizards continue to show up.  They have just one loss by more than 9 points in their last 12 games.  That makes for an 11-1 system backing the Wizards pertaining to this 9.5-point spread.

The Boston Celtics have announced they will be resting their 6 best players in White, Tatum, Porzingis, Horford, Holiday and Brown.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us without these six guys is asking too much.  Bet the Wizards Sunday.

20* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix Suns -4.5

I love the spot for the Phoenix Suns tonight.  They sit in 7th place in the West just one game behind the Pelicans for the 6th seed.  They own the tiebreaker over the Pelicans, who have to play on the road against the Warriors tonight.  The Suns are highly motivated to get out of the play-in and get that 6th seed.

The Suns are fully healthy right now and playing up to their potential.  They are 8-4 SU & 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They will be the fresher team tonight as they had yesterday off, while the Kings will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.

The Kings are running out of gas and out of bodies.  They are 1-4 SU in their last five games overall with their only win coming against the lowly Nets.  They are without Malik Monk and Kevin Heurter right now to really hurt their depth and shooting.  Fox played nearly 41 minutes last night, while Murray played 36, Barnes 33 and Sabonis 35.  They won't have anything left in the tank for the Suns tonight.  Bet the Suns Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves -12.5

The Atlanta Hawks have nothing to play for.  They are locked in to the 10th spot and the play-in and will have a road game against the Bulls, who they lose out on the tiebreaker to.  Their only concern is getting healthy for the play-in round now as they are dealing with a plethora of injuries.

Indeed, the Hawks are without Bey, Griffin, Johnson and Okongwu.  Dejounte Murray sat out last game with a quad injury and likely won't pay again.  Trae Young just returned from injury and they could be cautious with him as well.  I expect a very poor effort from the Hawks tonight with a lot of backups getting playing time.

The Minnesota Timberwolves still have a lot to play for.  They are tied with the Thunder for the 2nd seed and they are one game behind the Nuggets for the top seed in the West.  They are now fully healthy with Karl-Anthony Towns expected to return from his knee injury tonight.  They are going 'all in' to win their final two games and get the best seed possible.  I'll gladly back the healthier, more motivated team tonight laying the big number.  Bet the Timberwolves Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +15

The Miami Heat are content with being the 8th seed and in the play-in.  They trail the 76ers by one game for the 7th seed, and the 76ers host the Magic and Nets to close out the season and are likely to win both those games.  They trail the Pacers and Magic by two games with two to go for the 5th and 6th seeds.  They know they are essentially locked in to the 8th seed.

The Heat played like it in their last game as they lost 111-92 at home to the Dallas Mavericks.  Duncan Robinson is out Friday and Terry Rozier is questionable.  I wouldn't be surprised to see more starters sit for the Heat tonight as their main focus now is to just get healthy for the playoffs.

The Heat have no business being 15-point favorites over anyone right now given their situation.  The Raptors continue to battle and have a healthy Emmanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett in the lineup right now, plus could get back Gary Trent Jr. and Bruce Brown.  The Raptors are 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall including an outright win at Milwaukee as 14.5-point dogs.  They only lost by 4 as 11.5-point road dogs at Brooklyn despite being short-handed in their last game.  They will show up again tonight and give Miami a run for its money.

The Raptors are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Heat.  Bet the Raptors Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +10.5

The Boston Celtics have nothing to play for right now.  They locked up the No. 1 seed in the East several games ago and have been just going through the motions since.  They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall and their last two games just showed how little they cared.

The Celtics lost 104-91 at Milwaukee as 3.5-point dogs on Tuesday before falling 118-109 as 3-point home favorites to New York on Thursday.  The Celtics tailed by 29 to the Knicks heading into the 4th quarter before they called the dogs off.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.

The Celtics have no business being favored by double-digits against anyone in this spot.  Their only goal right now is to get healthy for the playoffs.  They aren't concerned with blowing out Charlotte with two games to go in the regular season.  Even if they play their starters they have been resting those starters in the 4th quarter and will likely do so again.

Charlotte is 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Hornets upset the Magic 124-115 as 12-point dogs, upset the Hawks 115-114 as 9.5-point dogs and took the Thunder to the wire in a 3-point loss as 7.5-point dogs.  They have not quit, and they will relish this opportunity to try and knock off the top team in the East.  They will clearly be the more motivated team, and motivation means a lot in the NBA.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

20* Pelicans/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +1

The New Orleans Pelicans have a lot to play for tonight.  They currently sit in 6th place in the West but just 0.5 games ahead of the 7th place Suns and the play-in.  They are playing with a sense of urgency right now beating those Suns 113-105 as 6-point road dogs and beating the Blazers by double-digits on the road in their last two games coming in.

The Pelicans are the much healthier team than the Kings right now.  The Pelicans have all hands on deck outside Brandon Ingram, who has been out for about a month.  He could return tonight, but I like the Pelicans either way.

The Kings are without two of their best shooters in Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter.  If it's not them it's Keegan Murray, who is also questionable to play tonight.  The Kings have really struggled since losing Monk, going 1-3 SU in their last four games overall with their lone win coming against the lowly Nets.  They return home from a 4-game road trip and will be playing in their 5th different city in 8 days.

The Pelicans own the Kings this season.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the four meetings with four blowout wins despite being underdogs in all four.  They won by 33, 10, 5 and 36 points for an average margin of victory of 21 points per game.  This is clearly a terrible matchup for the Kings, and that's even when they were healthy.  That's not the case any more, and the wrong team is favored here tonight.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

20* Knicks/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on New York -2.5

The New York Knicks are back to full strength outside of Julius Randle and playing well.  They beat the Bucks 122-109 as 4.5-point road dogs and followed it up with a 128-117 win at Chicago as 4.5-point favorites in their last two games coming in.  Their solid play will continue tonight in Boston.

The reason the Knicks are favored on the road here is because they have a lot to play for, while the Celtics are locked in to the No. 1 seed in the East with nothing to play for.  The Knicks sit in 3rd place in the East just 1.5 games behind the Bucks and only 1.5 games ahead of the Pacers for the 6th spot.  They have a lot at stake here.

The Celtics have been going through the motions here down the stretch in going 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They have six key players listed as questionable tonight in Tatum, Brown, Holiday, Porzingis, Horford and Tillman.  Their only focus the rest of the way is to get healthy for a playoff run.  Bet the Knicks Thursday.

15* Suns/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -4

I love the spot for the Phoenix Suns tonight.  They are coming off an embarrassing 105-92 road loss to the Clippers last night.  They fell behind 35-4 in the 1st quarter to open the game and did a good job just to get back in it.  They shot 33.7% as a team and that's not going to happen again.

The Suns don't have to wait long for revenge as they meet in Los Angeles for the rematch tonight.  They need this game more as they sit in 7th place in the West and currently in the play-in and one game behind the Pelicans for 6th place.  They have a lot more to play for here tonight.

The Clippers are now locked in to the 4th or 5th seed.  They will likely play the Dallas Mavericks in the first round, who trail them by two games.  They don't care about home-court advantage.  They are without Kawhi Leonard and could be without James Harden again.  Meanwhile, the Suns could get back Jusuf Nurkic, but I like them to win and cover tonight no matter who plays.

The Suns have been a resilient team going 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  They are coming off two consecutive losses and haven't lost three straight games since December 19-25.  Bet the Suns Wednesday.

20* Timberwolves/Nuggets ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 213.5

Defensive intensity will be high between the Nuggets and Timberwolves tonight.  1st place in the West is on the line with both teams tied at 55-24 this season with three games to go.  And these are two of the best defensive teams in the league as it is with the Timberwolves ranking 1st in defensive rating and the Nuggets 8th.

Both teams prefer to play slow as well with the Nuggets ranking 26th in pace and the Timberwolves 21st.  Both teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and will be tired as a result, which will also help slow down the tempo.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and this will be the 4th meeting this season between the Nuggets and Timberwolves.  They have combined for 201, 227 and 209 points in their first three meetings.  I think this one stays well UNDER the posted total of 213.5 tonight for all these reasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Magic/Bucks UNDER 216.5

The Orlando Magic are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 27th in pace and 3rd in defensive rating.  The Milwaukee Bucks have trended UNDER since Doc Rivers took over.  Now they will be without Giannis after he suffered a calf injury last night in a 104-91 home win over the Celtics.

Defensive intensity should be high for this one with the Bucks sitting two games ahead of the Magic for 2nd place in the East, and these teams meeting twice in their final three games to decide it.  Both teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back as well, so I don't look for either to be running much, and this one will be played in the half court.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Nets OVER 222

The Toronto Raptors are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 239 or more combined points in five of those seven games, and 228 or more in six of them.  They are playing no defense right now allowing 122 or more points in six of those seven games.

Neither the Nets nor the Raptors will be interested in playing defense tonight.  The Raptors get Immanuel Quickley back tonight making them even more of an OVER team.  The Nets are expected to have Cam Johnson in the lineup after sitting out last game.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Raptors right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

25* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Pelicans -10

The New Orleans Pelicans are in 7th place in the West and currently in the play-in if the season were to end today.  But they are tied with the 6th place Suns and losing out on the tiebreaker.  They have a lot to play for here down the stretch, so they won't be taking the Portland Trail Blazers lightly tonight.

The Pelicans have played their best basketball on the road this season.  They just got back Jose Alvarado from injury and Zion Williamson showed he was healthy in their 113-105 upset win at Phoenix as 5.5-point dogs last time out.  They are only missing Brandon Ingram now, and he is scheduled to return soon.  They don't need him to crush the Blazers.

The Blazers are without their three best players in Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant and Malcom Brogdon.  They have gone 2-11 SU in their last 13 games overall with their two wins coming against the lowly Wizards and Hornets.  They return home from a 7-game road trip after a 17-point loss at Boston, and I love fading teams coming back home off an extended trip.  There's a lot of distractions they have to deal with back at home.

The Pelicans are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Blazers with all five wins coming by 9 points or more and by an average of 18.0 points per game.  It will be more of the same tonight given all that the Pelicans have to play for up against the short-handed Blazers.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* Warriors/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -1.5

The Los Angeles Lakers have gone 9-2 SU in their last 11 games overall.  LeBron James sat out their last game and they lost to the Timberwolves.  I expect him back tonight with what's at stake for the Lakers.

The Lakers currently sit in 9th place in the West but just 0.5 games behind the Kings, and 1.5 games behind both the Pelicans and Suns for the 6th seed.  They also at the very least want to get a home game agains the Warriors in the play-in, and they lead the Warriors by 1.5 games.

The Warriors seems pretty much content with the fact that they will be the 10th seed and have to go on the road in the play-in.  They sat Steph Curry last game, and Draymond Green suffered a back injury that leaves him questionable tonight.  I just don't think the Warriors are going to play this game with the sense of urgency that the Lakers will.

The Lakers also want revenge from a 128-121 home loss to the Warriors on March 16th less than a month ago.  They need this win to split the season series.  The Lakers are 27-13 SU at home and playing their best basketball of the season right now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  Bet the Lakers Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Bulls UNDER 213.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting between the Bulls and Knicks in five days.  The Bulls won 108-100 in that first meeting on April 5th for just 208 combined points.  It will be another low-scoring, defensive battle in the rematch tonight.

Both the Knicks and Bulls are dead nuts UNDER teams because they play so slow.  In fact, the Knicks rank dead last (30th) in pace, while the Bulls rank 29th.  To no surprise, the UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings with 213 or fewer combined points in six of those 10 meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pacers/Raptors OVER 240.5

The Toronto Raptors are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 239 or more combined points in four of those six games.  They are playing no defense right now allowing 122 or more points in five of those six games.

The Indiana Pacers are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall.  They rank 2nd in pace this season and will name their number against Toronto.  I think the Raptors keep pace well enough to get us this OVER tonight.

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with 252 or more combined points in all three meetings this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Timberwolves/Lakers UNDER 225

Both the Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves have a lot to play for tonight.  Defensive intensity will be high as a result.  The Timberwolves trail the Nuggets by just 0.5 games for 1st place in the West.  The Lakers have climbed their way into the 8th spot and trail the 7th place Pelicans by 0.5 games and the Suns by 1.5 games for 6th.

Minnesota is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Timberwolves rank 21st in pace and 1st in defensive rating.  They are coming off a 97-87 loss to the Suns for just 184 combined points.  They are even more of an UNDER team without Karl-Anthony Towns right now.

The Lakers beat the Cavaliers 116-97 for just 213 combined points at home yesterday.  They aren't going to be looking to push the tempo playing the 2nd of a back-to-back today, and the Timberwolves won't allow them either.  There are also questions as to who will play for the Lakers on the 2nd of a back-to-back.

Minnesota is 16-5 UNDER when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 points or more this season.  The Lakers are 13-4 UNDER in their last 17 games after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Non-Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Kings/Nets UNDER 222

The Sacramento Kings are a much better defensive team than they get credit for.  The Kings are 12-3 UNDER in their last 15 games overall and would be 13-2 if they hadn't gone to OT against Memphis.  They have gone for 216 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in nine of their last 12 games overall.

They are without two of their best shooters in Kevin Heurter and Malik Monk, and both of those guys are defensive liabilities, which explains this UNDER run.  Monk is the NBA 6th Man of the Year and provides almost all their scoring off the bench.  The Kings are going to have to rely even more on defense moving forward without these guys.

The Kings are coming off yet another low-scoring 101-100 los sat Boston.  It will be more of the same today against the Brooklyn Nets, who beat the Pistons 113-103 yesterday for just 216 combined points.  Now Cameron Johnson and Dennis Smith Jr. are questionable to play for the Nets today.  The Nets rank 24th in pace and 22nd in offensive rating this season.

Brooklyn is 28-12 UNDER in its last 40 home games when revenging a road loss.  Sacramento is 49-31 UNDER in its last 80 road games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +7.5

The San Antonio Spurs have quietly gone 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  They upset the Suns at home, the Jazz on the road, the Knicks at home and the Pelicans on the road.  They also only lost by 4 as 10.5-point home dogs to the Warriors, and by 5 as 16-point road dogs to the Nuggets.  This team is grossly undervalued right now.

The Spurs are in a favorable rest spot today playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the 76ers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 9th game in 15 days.  Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris are all questionable to play today, but I like the Spurs no matter who suits up for the 76ers.  Bet the Spurs Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Blazers/Celtics UNDER 219

The Portland Trail Blazers are a dead nuts UNDER team right now due to playing without their three best players in Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant and Malcolm Brogdon.  They really struggle to score on offense, but they are full of hungry young players that have been getting after it defensively.

The Blazers are 3-0 UNDER in their last three games overall combining for 207 points with the Magic, 175 points with the Hornets and 210 points with the Wizards.  They won't be able to get much offensively against a Boston team that ranks 2nd in the NBA in defensive rating.

The Celtics have gone for 196, 222 and 201 points in three of their last four games.  They don't have much to play for right now so they aren't looking to run it up or push the tempo.  They could let the Blazers hang around as a result, but I like the UNDER much better.  Both Tatum and Brown are questionable for this one as well.

Portland is 20-9 UNDER in non-conference games this season.  The Blazers are 17-5 UNDER in their last 22 games off a win by 6 points or less.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/Magic UNDER 212.5

The Chicago Bulls and Orlando Magic are two of the slowest teams in the NBA.  The Magic rank 27th in pace while the Bulls rank 29th.  This game will be played at a snail's pace, which benefits the UNDER.  The Magic rank 3rd in defensive rating as well.

The Bulls could be without both Coby White and Alex Caruso, who both suffered ankle injuries in their 108-100 win over the Knicks last time out.  That would make them go with a bigger lineup and not having White on offense would be a huge blow.

The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 200, 190 and 191 combined points in three of the four.  Orlando is 10-2 UNDER In Sunday games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Raptors OVER 227.5

Both RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley returned from injury a few games back.  The Toronto Raptors are a dead nuts OVER team when they have their two best guards in the lineup.  They play faster, play worse defense and play much better offensively with these two on the court.  The Raptors are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 228 or more combined points in four of those five.

The Washington Wizards have been a dead nuts OVER team all season.  They rank 1st in the NBA in pace and 28th in defensive rating.  They have been filling it up offensively of late while knocking off some quality teams.  They have scored at least 107 points in eight of their last 10 games overall.

I like betting OVERS in games between two teams with nothing to play for at the end of the season.  These seem to be more relaxed games with no defense being played and all focus on the offensive end.  This contest fits the bill.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Rockets/Mavs UNDER 227

The Dallas Mavericks are playing much better defense now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  The Mavericks are 11-2 UNDER in their last 13 games overall with 214, 204, 204, 210, 228, 220, 210, 219, 208, 212 and 220 combined points in 10 of those 13 games.  They rank 1st in the NBA in defensive rating in their last 13 games.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting between the Rockets and Mavericks in eight days.  The Mavericks won 125-107 in Houston on March 31st.  Dallas shot 24-of-47 (51.1%) from 3 and that's not going to happen again.

Plus, Dallas could be without Luka Doncic again after he missed their last game against the Warriors.  But I like the UNDER regardless.  This is an early 3:40 EST start time with it being a 2:40 body clock game for these teams.  They aren't used to playing this early in the day, and it usually takes a few quarters for them to wake up.

Dallas is 21-6 UNDER in its last 27 games against teams that allow 46% shooting or higher.  Houston is 11-2 UNDER in its last 13 road games off two or more consecutive overs.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Warriors/Mavericks UNDER 226

The Dallas Mavericks are playing much better defense now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  The Mavericks are 10-2 UNDER in their last 12 games overall with 204, 204, 210, 228, 220, 210, 219, 208, 212 and 220 combined points in nine of those 12 games.  They rank 1st in the NBA in defensive rating in their last 12 games.

The Golden State Warriors have allowed 100.8 points per game in their last six games and have really amped up their defense with the playoffs quickly approaching.  They rank 4th in the NBA in defensive rating in their last four games.

The Mavericks and Warriors have combined for 232 or fewer points in seven of their last nine meetings.  They just played on Tuesday with the Warriors winning 104-100 at home for just 204 combined points.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and it will be more of the same in the rematch tonight.

The Warriors are 22-11 UNDER in their last 33 games overall.  Defensive intensity will be high in this game with what's at stake for both teams.  I also don't expect either team to try and run very much since both will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +11.5

The San Antonio Spurs have quietly gone 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They upset the Suns at home, the Jazz on the road and the Knicks at home.  They also only lost by 4 as 10.5-point home dogs to the Warriors, and by 5 as 16-point road dogs to the Nuggets.  This team is grossly undervalued right now.

The New Orleans Pelicans are grossly overvalued.  They have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing by 12 to Boston, by 13 to Phoenix and by 9 to Orlando all at home.  They are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall as well.  They have not played well without Ingram and Alvarado, and now Zion Williamson is questionable with a finger injury.  They should not be laying double-digits to the Spurs tonight.  Bet the Spurs Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Chicago Bulls ML -119

The Chicago Bulls have a massive rest advantage tonight over the New York Knicks.  The Bulls have had the last three days off and will be feeling fresh and ready to go tonight.  They also have a lot to play for trying to lock down the 9th seed in the East and a home game against the Atlanta Hawks in the play-in.  They lead the Hawks by just 0.5 games for that spot.

The Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 120-109 home win over the short-handed Kings last night.  Four of five starters played at least 38 minutes for the Knicks last night.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Bulls tonight.

Plays on home favorites (Chicago) - revenging a loss by 10 points or more, a marginal losing team (40-49%) playing a winning team are 36-11 (76.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Chicago is favored for good reason tonight.  Bet the Bulls on the Money Line Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +4.5

The Houston Rockets fought hard to get back in the playoff race by winning 11 consecutive games prior to two straight losses to two of the best teams in the West in the Mavericks and Timberwolves.  They trail the Warriors by 3 games for the final play-in spot, and this is their 'last stand' tonight.

I think we get a massive effort from the Rockets, who should not be 4.5-point underdogs to the Warriors tonight.  The Rockets are 26-12 SU & 27-11 ATS at home this season with the best home-court advantage in the NBA from a ATS perspective.

The Warriors are getting too much respect after going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall against a pretty soft schedule.  This is tired Warriors tam playing in their 6th different city in 10 days.  They know they can afford a loss to the Rockets and won't be fully dialed in, especially with a road game on deck against Dallas tomorrow that might have Kerr limit his starters' minutes as well.

Houston is 7-0 ATS after winning six or seven of its last eight games this season.  The Rockets are 16-7 ATS when revenging a same-season loss this season.  Houston is 9-1 ATS in home games against teams that average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  Bet the Rockets Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Miami Heat -2.5

The Miami Heat are in playoff mode right now and a dangerous team when that's the case.  They are also as healthy as they have been in a long time.  The Heat currently sit in 6th place in the East just percentage points ahead of the 7th place Pacers.  They desperately want to avoid the play-in round at all costs.

The Heat have been playing with a sense of urgency in their last three games beating the Blazers by 60 at home, the Wizards by 12 on the road and the Knicks by 10 at home.  They are fresh and ready to go as they will be playing just their 4th game in 9 days.

The 76ers are getting too much respect as short road underdogs here.  They are coming off two consecutive victories against short-handed teams in the Raptors and Thunder which ended a 3-game skid.  Joel Embiid just returned from injury last game but is on a minutes limit and is questionable tonight.  The 76ers are still without De'Anthony Melton, and their next two best players in Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey are questionable tonight.  

I like the Heat regardless of who plays for the 76ers as this line should be higher than -2.5 even if the 76ers get good injury news.  But it's going to close a lot higher if they get poor injury news.  Bet the Heat Thursday.

20* Kings/Knicks TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 215.5

The Sacramento Kings are a much better defensive team than they get credit for.  The Kings are 11-2 UNDER in their last 13 games overall and would be 12-1 if they hadn't gone to OT against Memphis.  They have gone for 216 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in eight of their last 10 games overall.

They are without two of their best shooters in Kevin Heurter and Malik Monk, and both of those guys are defensive liabilities, which explains this UNDER run.  Monk is the NBA 6th Man of the Year and provides almost all their scoring off the bench.  The Kings are going to have to rely even more on defense moving forward without these guys.

The New York Knicks have been a dead nuts UNDER team all season.  They are 24-14 UNDER at home this season.  They rank 8th in the NBA in defensive rating and dead last (30th) in pace, which is the reason for being a dead nuts UNDER team.

New York beat Sacramento 98-91 on the road on March 16th in their first meeting this season for just 189 combined points.  It will be more of the same in the rematch here tonight with the team that gets to 100 likely to win this one.  Defensive intensity will be high with the Kings and Knicks both having a lot to play for given their current standings in the playoffs.

Sacramento is 27-13 UNDER in its last 40 games as a road underdog.  New York is 11-2 UNDER after scoring 100 points or less this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Timberwolves OVER 215

This is a very low total for a game involving the Toronto Raptors right now.  The Raptors were trending under prior to combining for 246 points with the Knicks, 255 points with the 76ers and 239 points with the Lakers in their last three games.  A big reason for the under trend was injuries to four of their five starters.  But they just got Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett back from injury, and they return to a dead nuts OVER team with these two in the lineup.  Plus, Gary Trent Jr. was on a tear before sitting out last night, and he is back tonight.

The Timberwolves are likely to take the Raptors lightly tonight and I don't expect their defensive intensity to be as high as it normally it.  I do expect the Timberwolves to hang a big number on the Raptors, who have allowed 145, 135 and 128 points in their last three games and are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season.  They rank 25th in defensive rating and have been even worse since losing Barnes and Poeltl.

Toronto is 12-2 OVER in non-conference road games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Thunder/Celtics ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City +9

The Oklahoma City Thunder have a lot to play for right now.  They trail the Nuggets by just 0.5 games for 1st place in the West.  I suspect they decided to rest their two best players in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams last night against the 76ers to save them for this game against Boston tonight.  There's a good chance they get one or both back, especially SGA.

Either way, I like the Thunder to be competitive tonight against a Boston Celtics team that has absolutely nothing to play for.  The Celtics have locked up the No. 1 seed in the East and are playing like it.  They have gone 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall with two outright losses to the Hawks as 16.5-point favorites and 10.5-point favorites.  Asking the Celtics to win this game by double-digits to beat us when they have nothing to play for is asking too much.

Boston is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 home games when revenging a road loss.  Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +12.5

The Washington Wizards have quietly gone 4-3 SU & 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and have not packed it in.  They have outright upset wins over the Kings as 11-point dogs, the Bulls as 12.5-point road dogs and the Bucks as 13-point dogs during this stretch.

Both the Lakers and Wizards will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight, but the advantage goes to the Wizards getting to stay at home after playing at home last night, while the Lakers have to travel after winning in Toronto.  There's a chance the Wizards get both Kyle Kuzma and Richaun Holmes back from injury after both sat out last night as well.

The Wizards want revenge from a 134-131 (OT) loss as 9.5-point dogs at Los Angeles on February 29th.  The Wizards are actually 3-4 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Lakers with all four losses coming by 13 points or fewer.  

The Lakers are 3-12 ATS off a road win this season.  Bet the Wizards Wednesday.

15* Mavs/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas +1

The Dallas Mavericks are playing better than anyone in the NBA right now.  They are 11-1 SU & 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall with their lone loss coming at OKC as 10.5-point dogs without Luka Doncic.  They are almost fully healthy right now and playing their best basketball of the season.

What would surprise most people is that the Mavericks rank 4th in the NBA in defensive rating during this 11-1 run.  They have allowed 107 or fewer points in 10 of those 12 games.  Their trades for PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford are really paying dividends, and Doncic and Irving have great chemistry offensively.

The Warriors have won four in a row against suspect competition.  Now they take a big step up in class here against the Mavericks and are in a terrible spot.  The Warriors return home from a 5-game road trip, and I love fading teams returning home from extended trips because there are distractions to deal with back at home.  The Warriors are a tired team playing in their 6th different city in 10 days.

Golden State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days.  Dallas is 25-12 ATS in road games this season.  Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mavs/Warriors UNDER 233

The Dallas Mavericks are playing much better defense now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  The Mavericks are 8-2 UNDER in their last 10 games overall with 232, 210, 228, 220, 210, 219, 208, 212 and 220 combined points in nine of those 10 games.  They rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive rating during this stretch.

The Golden State Warriors have allowed 92, 93 and 97 points in three of their last four games and have really amped up their defense with the playoffs quickly approaching.  They are trying to make the play-in and fighting hard for it with four consecutive victories.  They rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive rating in their last four games.

The Mavericks and Warriors have combined for 232 or fewer points in six of their last eight meetings.  The Warriors are 21-10 UNDER in their last 31 games overall.  Defensive intensity will be high in this game with what's at stake for both teams.  

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 230 or higher (Dallas) - a well rested team playing 6 or fewer games in 14 days, a good team (60-75%) playing a winning team are 57-21 (73.1%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Lakers/Raptors OVER 232.5

The Los Angeles Lakers have been one of the few dead nuts OVER teams here down the stretch.  They are 10-5 OVER in their last 15 games overall with 236 or more combined points in 15 of their last 22 games overall.  That includes 227 or more combined points in 18 of those 22 games.

The Toronto Raptors were trending under prior to combining for 246 points with the Knicks and 255 points with the 76ers in their last two games.  A big reason for the under trend was injuries to four of their five starters.  But now they get Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett back from injury tonight, and they return to a dead nuts OVER team with these two in the lineup.

The Lakers are 20-5 OVER when playing against a team with a losing record this season and we're seeing 244 combing points per game in these 25 games.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 234 or more combined points in all four, including 263 combined points at the end of regulation in their lone meeting this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Indiana Pacers -12

The Brooklyn Nets are just 4-9 SU & 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall and have fallen out of the playoff race.  They are coming off a 116-104 home loss to the Los Angeles Lakers last night and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Pacers tonight.

The Pacers have a lot to play for right now and will not be taking the Nets lightly as a result.  They sit in 6th place in the East but just 0.5 games ahead of the Heat for the first play-in spot.  They don't want to have to go into the play-in.

The Pacers are 7-4 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall with all seven wins coming by double-digits.  They are fresh and ready to go after having the last two days off since blasting the Lakers by 19 at home.  These rest and motivational advantages are the reasons I'm willing to lay this big of a number with the Pacers tonight.

Brooklyn is 1-10 ATS in road games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season.  Indiana is 26-12 ATS in its last 38 games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days.  The Pacers are 19-4 ATS against teams that average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  They beat the Nets 121-100 in their lone meeting this season on March 16th.  It will be more of the same tonight.  Bet the Pacers Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Pistons UNDER 216

Both the Memphis Grizzlies and Detroit Pistons are struggling offensively right now due to injuries.  The Grizzlies scored 88 points last time out against the Magic and are without eight players right now including Desmond Bane.

The Pistons have scored 103 or fewer points in nine consecutive games now while going 9-2 UNDER in their last 11 games overall.  They are without Thompson, Grimes, Fontecchio, Steward, Gibson and Umude with both Cunningham and Sasser questionable as well.

Detroit is 7-0 UNDER as a favorite this season.  Memphis is 16-6 UNDER in its last 22 road games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Pistons are 9-0 UNDER in home games against poor teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic -15.5

The Orlando Magic crush bad teams like the Portland Trail Blazers.  They have gone 24-7 ATS as favorites this season including 9-1 ATS against a bad team that wins 25-40% of their games this season.  They are also 24-5 ATS against teams with a losing record this season.

The Magic have a lot to play for right now trying to fend off the Miami Heat for the Southeast Division Title.  They lead the Heat by two games for the title, meaning they are only two games ahead of the final play-in team as well.  They just crushed the Grizzlies by 30 last game at home, and I expect a similar result against the hapless Blazers tonight.

The Blazers are 0-9 SU in their last nine games overall with six losses by 12 points or more.  They have lost their last three games by 18 at Houston, by 14 at Atlanta and by 60 at Miami.  They have a G League lineup right now playing without their three best players in Malcolm Brogdon, Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons.  They are just ready for this season to be over.

Orlando is 8-0 ATS after failing to cover three of its last four ATS this season.  Portland is 0-10 ATS after scoring 95 points or less this season.  Bet the Magic Monday.

15* Jazz/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 223

The Sacramento Kings are a much better defensive team than they get credit for.  The Kings are 10-1 UNDER in their last 11 games overall and would be 11-0 if they hadn't gone to OT against Memphis.  They have gone for 228 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in 11 consecutive games now.  

They are without two of their best shooters in Kevin Heurter and Trey Lyles, and both of those guys are defensive liabilities, which explains this UNDER run.  Making matters worse is that they just lost Malik Monk for 4-6 weeks.  He is the NBA 6th Man of the Year and provides almost all their scoring off the bench.  The Kings are going to have to rely even more on defense moving forward without these guys.

The Jazz are a dead nuts UNDER team in their current state as well.  They are without their two best players in Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson, plus John Collins is questionable.  The Jazz have been held to 111 points or fewer in seven of their last eight games overall while going 6-2 UNDER during this stretch.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mavs/Rockets UNDER 231

The Dallas Mavericks are playing much better defense now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  The Mavericks are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine games overall with 210, 228, 220, 210, 219, 208, 212 and 220 combined points in eight of those nine games.  Dallas is without one of its best shooters in Josh Green right now.  This total is too high for a game involving the Mavericks with the way they are playing right now.

The Houston Rockets are fighting for a playoff spot as they trail the Warriors by just 1.5 games for the final play-in spot.  They have gone for 202 combined points with the Blazers, 224 combined points with the Thunder at the end of regulation, and 201 combined points with the Jazz in their last three games overall.  They are really picking it up on the defensive end of late.

Dallas is 10-0 UNDER off an upset win as an underdog this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Hawks UNDER 223.5

The Milwaukee Bucks would be 3-0 UNDER in their last three games if not going to double-OT against the Lakers.  They combined with the Thunder for 211 points, combined with the Lakers for 202 points at the end of regulation, and combined with the Pelicans for 207 points in their last three games.

Now the Bucks will be without Damian Lillard tonight, making them even more of a dead nuts UNDER team.  But they get Patrick Beverly back from injury, and he is one of their defensive leaders and having him will be huge to try and slow down Dejounte Murray of the Hawks.

Murray's usage rate for the Hawks has gone through the roof since losing Trae Young.  They have 6 players out and Jalen Johnson is questionable.  The Hawks have had to rely a lot more on defense of late to be competitive.

Milwaukee is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine games against a team with a losing record.  The Bucks are 18-4 UNDER in their last 22 games against teams that attempt 24 or fewer free throws per game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +6.5

The Boston Celtics have nothing to play for for the rest of the regular season.  They are locked in to the No. 1 seed in the East, so they are going to be lacking motivation the rest of the way.  That gives us a great opportunity to fade them because they are going to continue to be priced as the best team in the league.

The Celtics probably are the best team in the league when healthy and motivated, but neither is the case right now.  That explains how they lost two consecutive games outright to the Hawks as 16.5-point favorites and 10.5-point favorites in their last two games coming in.  Now they are once again laying too many points as 6.5-point favorites at New Orleans.

The Pelicans are 10-3 SU & 8-4-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are motivated right now to avoid the play-in round as they are currently the 5th seed only one game back of the Clippers for the 4th seed, but also only 2.5 games ahead of the Suns for the 7th seed and the play-in.  They need wins right now while the Celtics do not.

New Orleans is a perfect 8-0 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season and winning by 18.1 points per game.  Bet the Pelicans Saturday.