|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-17-21||Bulls +7 v. Mavs||Top||117-101||Win||100||6 h 39 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +7
The Chicago Bulls have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA to this point. Their 4-8 SU record will have them undervalued moving forward. And we'll keep getting more points with them than we should be getting.
Chicago is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall. The Bulls have a total of one loss by more than 4 points in those nine games, and that came to the best team in the East in the Milwaukee Bucks as 14.5-point dogs. They have upset wins over the Wizards (twice), Mavericks and Blazers. They also have five losses by 4 points or fewer, so they simply haven't been able to close out games.
The Bulls are rested and highly motivated for a win right now after losing four straight coming in. They will be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days. And they want to end this 6-game road trip with a victory in Dallas tonight. It's a Mavericks team they already beat 118-108 as 4-point home underdogs. And now they are catching even more points (+7) in the rematch.
Dallas is overvalued after going 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall. The Mavericks had their four-game winning streak come to an end with a tough 109-112 loss at Milwaukee on National TV Friday. I think they suffer a hangover from that defeat here Sunday. And they will still be without Dorian-Finney Smith, Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell and Josh Richardson due to COVID. They could also be without both Jalen Brunson and Tim Hardaway Jr.
The Bulls are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games playing on one days' rest. Chicago is 6-0 ATS in its last six Sunday games. The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as underdogs. Chicago is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games after covering four of its last five ATS. These four trends combine for a 29-1 system backing Chicago. Roll with the Bulls Sunday.
|01-16-21||Rockets v. Spurs -6.5||Top||91-103||Win||100||7 h 10 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -6.5
The San Antonio Spurs just blew a 9-point lead late in the 4th quarter against the Houston Rockets on Thursday and lost 105-109. It's safe to say the Spurs will be out for revenge in this spot as they get a rematch just two days later on Saturday.
It's a banged up Rockets team that will be missing John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Danuel House Jr. and could be without Eric Gordon. I think the Spurs just took them lightly in the first meeting. Greg Popovich won't allow that in the rematch.
The Rockets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Houston is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win. San Antonio is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss. The Spurs are 54-26 ATS in their last 80 games when revenging a loss. Bet the Spurs Saturday.
|01-15-21||Clippers v. Kings +7||138-100||Loss||-110||10 h 9 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +7
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Sacramento Kings after going just 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. This team is tough to defend as they have shot 51.6% or better in four of their last five games overall. And they come in highly motivated for a victory against the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.
The Clippers have been consistently overvalued of late. They are 4-3 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall. All four of their wins came by 7 points or fewer over the Pelicans (by 5), Bulls (by 3), Warriors (by 7) and Suns (by 5). So asking them to cover a 7-point spread on the road here is asking a lot based on how they have been playing of late.
Sacramento is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in its last two meetings with the Clippers winning 124-103 as 14-point road dogs and 112-103 as 9-point road dogs. The Kings are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games after losing six or seven of their last eight games coming in. The Clippers are 2-8 ATS int heir last 10 games playing on one days' rest. Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win. Roll with the Kings Friday.
|01-15-21||Pelicans +10 v. Lakers||95-112||Loss||-104||10 h 9 m||Show|
15* Pelicans/Lakers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans +10
This is a great time to 'buy low' on the New Orleans Pelicans. They are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall with all four losses by 8 points or fewer. That includes their 106-111 loss at the Clippers as 11.5-point dogs last time out. But they didn't have Zion Williamson in that game and still only lost by 5 points. Williamson returns to the lineup tonight.
It's also time to 'sell high' on the Los Angeles Lakers. They are 8-1 SU in their last nine games overall and have covered three straight coming in. But those three ATS wins came against a gutless James Harden and the Houston Rockets (twice) as well as the Thunder, who are one of the least talented teams in the league.
The Pelicans have played the Lakers very tough in recent meetings. In fact, they haven't lost any of the last four meetings by more than 10 points. So getting double-digits here with the Pelicans is a tremendous value, especially considering they are a much better team than they were in their four meetings last year. It's also worth noting that both Lebron James and Anthony Davis are listed as questionable tonight so there's a chance that one or both sit.
Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (New Orleans) - after going over the total by 30 or more points in their last five games against an opponent that went under the total by 54 or more points in their last 10 games are 72-32 (69.2%) ATS since 1996. The Lakers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games. Take the Pelicans Friday.
|01-14-21||Hornets v. Raptors -9||108-111||Loss||-105||9 h 49 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -9
I love the spot for the Toronto Raptors. They will be highly motivated for a victory here after losing their last two games by a single point each. They've had the last two days off to recover from their 5-game road trip and will be fresh and ready to get back in the win column in a big way tonight.
The spot couldn't be worse for the Charlotte Hornets. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days after losing 93-104 at home to the Dallas Mavericks last night. And their best player in Gordon Hayward suffered a hip injury in the loss and is questionable to play tonight. Chances are the Hornets will sit Hayward, who has been red hot in averaging 26.6 PPG in his last five games.
Toronto is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Charlotte is 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 games following a double-digit home loss. Roll with the Raptors Thursday.
|01-14-21||Heat +10.5 v. 76ers||108-125||Loss||-110||8 h 19 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Heat +10.5
I love the spot for the Miami Heat tonight. They will be out for revenge following a 134-137 (OT) loss at Philadelphia as 8.5-point dogs on Tuesday. Now they get to face the 76ers and are 10.5-point dogs in the rematch.
I get that the 76ers are getting some players back from COVID issues, but the Heat were short-handed last time and will have basically the same lineup this time. They thrive in the role of underdogs when people count them out. Guys like Vincent had 24, Herro 34, Robinson 26, Achiuwa 17 and Olynyk 15 points. And they are good enough to not lose by double-digits in this rematch.
The 76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall not once winning by more than 5 points. The Heat are 37-13-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss. Miami is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the Heat Thursday.
|01-13-21||Nets v. Knicks +5||Top||116-109||Loss||-110||26 h 48 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Knicks +5
It's a good time to 'buy low' on the New York Knicks. They have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall. That followed a great run of going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their previous six games. And now the Knicks are catching 5 points at home against a Brooklyn Nets team that has been awful and is in a terrible spot.
The Nets are just 4-6 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. They are missing their two lead guards in Kyrie Irving and Spencer Dinwiddie. And now they are going to be extremely tired due to the schedule and being short-handed.
The Nets are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after facing Denver on Tuesday. They had to put a lot of effort in overcoming an 18-point deficit in the 3rd quarter to win that game 122-116. Not to mention, it will also be the 5th game in 7 days for the Nets, which is as tough a situation as there is in the NBA.
The Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Nets, not once losing by more than 4 points in any of the four meetings. The Nets are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. Brooklyn is 1-5 ATS in its last six games as a favorite. New York is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Nets. Bet the Knicks Wednesday.
|01-13-21||Bucks v. Pistons +10.5||110-101||Win||100||8 h 14 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +10.5
The Detroit Pistons will be out for revenge after losing two meetings with Milwaukee on January 4th and January 6th. They lost by 10 and 15 points. I fully expect them to lose this game by 10 points or fewer or win the game outright.
Clearly, the Pistons will be the more motivated team here playing with double-revenge. The Bucks probably think they just have to show up to win. And it's a rested Pistons team that has had the last two days off after losing to Utah by 10 on Sunday. The Bucks will be playing their 4th game in 6 days here. They are overvalued after beating two of the worst teams in the East in Cleveland by 10 and Orlando by 22.
Both of those teams are injury-ravaged right now and missing a ton of key players. The Pistons are as healthy as they've been all season and it's starting to show as they have gone 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall, including outright upset wins over the Celtics as 8.5-point dogs and the Suns as 8-point dogs.
Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (Detroit) - off a home loss by 10 points or more when playing on two days' rest are 70-35 (66.7%) ATS since 1996. Plays against road favorites of 10 or more points (Milwaukee) - a top team outscoring their opponents by 9-plus points per game against an opponent that scored 90 points or less last game are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS since 1996.
The Bucks are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win by more than 10 points. The Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit home loss. Roll with the Pistons Wednesday.
|01-12-21||Lakers v. Rockets +5.5||Top||117-100||Loss||-109||9 h 52 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Rockets NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Houston +5.5
I love the spot for the Houston Rockets tonight. They will be out for revenge from a 102-120 home loss to the Lakers on Sunday. Now they don't have to wait long for revenge as they host the Lakers here again. And we're getting extra value as the Rockets were 3.5-point dogs in that first meeting and now 5.5-point dogs in the rematch.
The Rockets will clearly be the more motivated team here. And they aren't likely to shoot as poorly as they did in that first meeting where they shot 41.1% from the field and just 29.3% from 3-point range.
We've seen the Lakers falter in this situation twice recently. After beating the Spurs by 14 as 7.5-point favorites on December 30th, they failed to cover as 7.5-point favorites in the rematch on January 1st. After beating the Grizzlies by 14 as 10-point favorites on January 3rd, they only beat the Grizzlies by 2 as 9.5-point favorites in the rematch on January 5th and failed to cover.
The Lakers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a win. Houston is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 home games after going under the total in two or more consecutive games. Plays against road teams (LA Lakers) - off a road win, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 52-23 (69.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Rockets Tuesday.
|01-11-21||Pacers v. Kings OVER 226.5||122-127||Win||100||10 h 13 m||Show|
15* Pacers/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 226.5
The Indiana Pacers have been a lot more of an offensive juggernaut this season under new head coach Nate Bjorkgren. They are scoring 115.0 points per game, shooting 48.9% as a team and hoisting a lot more 3-pointers than last year. Their defense has taken a hit as a result too.
The Kings like to run and gun as well as they average 112.4 points per game and are 10th in the NBA in pace. But they give up 121.0 points per game and rank dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency. This game has shootout written all over it.
The OVER is 5-2 in Kings last seven games overall with combined scores of 240 or more points in five of them. The OVER is 26-10 in Kings last 36 games with a total of 220 to 229.5 points. The OVER is 18-8 in Pacers last 26 games following a loss. The OVER is 19-7 in Kings last 26 games following an ATS loss. The OVER is 5-0 in Kings last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the OVER in this game Monday.
|01-10-21||Bulls +11.5 v. Clippers||127-130||Win||100||5 h 9 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +11.5
The Chicago Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA right now. They are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with upset wins over the Mavericks, Blazers and Wizards (twice). They also only lost by 2 to the Lakers as 9-point dogs and by 1 to the Warriors as 3.5-point dogs. They have lost just one of their last eight games by more than 4 points, and that was a blowout loss to the Bucks, which can be expected.
The Clippers have no business being double-digit favorites over the Bulls today. They are just 2-3 SU in their last five games overall with their two wins come by 7 and 5 points. So they haven't won any of their last five games by more than 7 points.
The Bulls are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss by 6 points or less. Chicago is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games playing on one days' rest. The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last five Sunday games. The Clippers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games playing on one days' rest. Roll with the Bulls Sunday.
|01-10-21||Jazz v. Pistons +8.5||Top||96-86||Loss||-105||4 h 9 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +8.5
It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Utah Jazz off their upset win as 5.5-point underdogs over the Milwaukee Bucks last time out. The Jazz are a tired team right now playing their 7th game in 11 days. They won't have enough left in the tank here in their 5th straight road game to beat the Pistons by more than 8.5 points.
It's also a good time to 'buy low' on the Pistons, who are off to a 2-7 start this season. But the Pistons have won outright in this price range twice with an upset win as an 8.5-point dog over the Celtics and an upset win as 8-point dogs to the Suns. They also only lost by 2 as 8-point dogs to the Celtics in the rematch.
Betting on Jazz games is simple. Back them as underdogs and fade them as favorites. Indeed, the Jazz are 6-23-2 ATS in their last 31 games as favorites. The Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as home underdogs. Take the Pistons Sunday.
|01-09-21||Suns v. Pacers -3||Top||125-117||Loss||-115||9 h 32 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -3
The Indiana Pacers have been one of my favorite teams to back in the early going this season. They are way underrated because they are mostly healthy this season, which hasn't been the case in recent years. And the players love head coach Nate Bjorkgren.
He has given them the freedom to play to their strengths. It has paid off in a big way as they have three All-Star caliber players in Malcom Brogdon (23.6 PPG, 7.0 APG), Domantas Sabonis (20.8 PPG, 11.4 RPG, 6.4 APG) and Victor Oladipo (20.4 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 4.3 APG). This trio can take them a long way when healthy, which has been the case thus far.
The Pacers are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS this season. Now they face a tired Phoenix Suns team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 105-110 (OT) loss in Detroit last night. It will also be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Suns. The Pacers had the last two days off and will be fresh and ready to go.
Plays against road underdogs of 3 to 9.5 points (Phoenix) - a tired team playing their 2nd game in 2 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Indiana is 5-1 ATS in its last six games playing on two days' rest. The Pacers are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet the Pacers Saturday.
|01-08-21||Clippers v. Warriors UNDER 231||Top||105-115||Win||100||11 h 1 m||Show|
20* Clippers/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 231
I love the spot for this UNDER to come through for us Friday. The Clippers and Warriors just played on Wednesday, so they are familiar with one another. And they combined for just 209 points in a 108-101 victory for the Clippers.
Now this total has been set a whopping 22 points higher than that 209-point finish with a 231-point total. The oddsmakers have messed this one up. There's a good chance that the Warriors will be without Stephon Curry, who has an ankle injury. Patrick Beverly shut down Curry in the first meeting, limiting him to a season-low 13 points on 5-of-17 shooting. So even if he does play Beverly can slow him down again.
Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 230 or higher (Golden State) - revenging a same season loss, after a home game where both teams scored 100 points or more are 61-31 (66.3%) over the last five seasons.
The UNDER is 7-2-2 in Clippers last 11 games playing on one days' rest. The UNDER is 10-4-2 in Clippers last 16 games as a favorite. The UNDER is 9-4 in Warriors last 13 games playing on one days' rest. The UNDER is 4-1 in Warriors last five after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|01-08-21||Bulls +9.5 v. Lakers||115-117||Win||100||11 h 52 m||Show|
15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Chicago Bulls +9.5
This is a bad spot for the Lakers, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 13 days. They showed some fatigue last night in a 109-118 loss to the Spurs as 8.5-point favorites. And now they are being overvalued again as 9.5-point favorites against Chicago tonight.
While the Lakers appear to be going through the motions after winning a title, the Bulls have been out to prove a point under first-year head coach Billy Donovan. They are showing the world that their young talent is finally starting to gel, and they are living up to their potential in the early going.
Indeed, the Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall as they have consistently been undervalued. They have won four of their last six games straight up with a 4-point loss to Sacramento and the other loss coming to the Bucks. They upset Washington in both road meetings, upset Dallas 118-108 and upset Portland 111-108 as 9.5-point road dogs. They will hang with the Lakers tonight given the awful spot for Los Angeles.
Chicago is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 road games after covering three of its last four ATS coming in. The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven gams as underdogs. Chicago is 6-0 ATS in its last six games playing on one days' rest. The Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the Bulls Friday.
|01-07-21||Spurs +7 v. Lakers||Top||118-109||Win||100||12 h 41 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +7
The San Antonio Spurs are playing with double-revenge here. They will be facing the Lakers for the 3rd time since December 30th. They lost the first two meetings but covered in the second meeting in a 6-point loss as 7.5-point dogs. And now they are 7-point dogs in the trilogy and I think they have a great chance to win outright tonight.
The situation is a good one for the Spurs, who will be staying in Los Angeles after their 116-113 upset of the Clippers as 7-point dogs on Tuesday. The situation is a terrible one for the Lakers, who are now back home following a four-game road trip. I love fading teams in their first game back home following a long trip.
The Lakers will be playing their 7th game in 12 games here, and they have another game tomorrow against Chicago. There's a good chance they rest one or both of their two stars tonight in Anthony Davis and Lebron James. They are both listed as questionable tonight with James dealing with an ankle injury, and Davis dealing with a strained thigh muscle. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is out with an ankle injury as well.
Conversely, the Spurs now have LaMarcus Aldridge back in the lineup. He didn't play in either of their first two meetings with the Lakers. The Spurs are 52-25 ATS in their last 77 games when revenging a loss. San Antonio is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a road underdog. The Lakers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a win. Bet the Spurs Thursday.
|01-07-21||76ers v. Nets +110||109-122||Win||110||8 h 20 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Brooklyn Nets ML +110
The Brooklyn Nets showed they could still get it done without Kevin Durant with an impressive 130-96 home win over the Utah Jazz as 4.5-point dogs on Tuesday. Now they come back as home underdogs to the Philadelphia 76ers tonight in a game I expect them to win outright.
The spot couldn't be any worse for the 76ers. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 13 days here. They just played a 141-136 shootout with Washington last night, which will have taken a lot out of them. Don't be surprised to see them rest some key players tonight against the Nets.
Philadelphia is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games following four or more consecutive wins. The 76ers are 5-18 ATS in their last 23 games following two or more consecutive home wins. Philadelphia is 6-21-1 ATS in its last 28 road games. Take the Nets on the Money Line Thursday.
|01-06-21||Jazz v. Knicks +7.5||100-112||Win||100||9 h 19 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +7.5
Tom Thibodeau quietly has the New York Knicks maximizing their potential in the early going. The Knicks are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five gmaes overall with upset wins over Milwaukee, Indiana, Atlanta and Cleveland. Their lone loss came on the road to Toronto.
Now they take on a tired Utah Jazz team coming off a 96-130 loss as a 5-point favorite at Brooklyn last night. The Jazz will now be playing their 5th game in 7 days and the fatigue is starting to show. There's no way the Jazz should be favored by 7.5 points here given the terrible spot with the 5th game in 7 days.
Plays against favorites (Utah) - off an embarrassing loss by 20 points or more as a favorite, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Jazz are 6-22-2 ATS in their last 30 games as favorites. Utah is 6-24 ATS in the last 30 meetings, including 3-12 ATS in the last 15 meetings in New York. Take the Knicks Wednesday.
|01-06-21||Rockets v. Pacers -2||Top||107-114||Win||100||9 h 49 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana Pacers -2
The Indiana Pacers are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA in the early going. They are loaded with talent at the top with their Big 3 of Victor Oladipo (20.8 PPG, 45.5% 3-pointers), Domanta Sabonis (20.6 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 6.7 APG, 52.9% 3-pointers) and Malcolm Brogdon (22.0 PPG, 7.0 APG, 44.7% 3-pointers), who are all All-Star caliber players. And they love new head coach Nate Bjorkgren.
"First and foremost, coach got all the fight in the world," Oladipo said following an OT win over the Pelicans in which they trailed by 6 with 30 seconds left. "The whole time down the stretch, with a minute left, with 38 seconds left, he was telling us 'it's not over, it's not over.' Tha's all he kept screaming from the sideline. We believed that, and we made something happen down the stretch."
"We've got one of the best coaches in the league, if not the best," Malcolm Brogdon said afterward. "I'm going to continue to say that during the season and make sure people understand how well-coached we are. Nate puts everybody in a position to play their game and show their strengths."
While the Pacers are feeling good about themselves and playing up to their potential, the Houston Rockets are a mess right now. It's hard to know whether or not James Harden even wants to be there. And they are trying to implement a bunch of new pieces, and it has hurt them defensively. The Rockets are 2-3 this season and coming off an upset home loss to the Mavericks, 100-113.
The Rockets are 20th in defensive efficiency and giving up 115.6 points per game. That's bad news for them as they will be up against a Pacers team that is 8th in offensive efficiency, scoring 114.9 points per game and shooting 49.3% as a team. The Pacers are also 12th in defensive efficiency this season.
The Rockets are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall. Houston is 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games. The Rockets are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games following a SU loss. The Pacers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 Wednesday games. Houston is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 trips to Indiana. Bet the Pacers Wednesday.
|01-05-21||Lakers v. Grizzlies UNDER 218.5||Top||94-92||Win||100||10 h 28 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Grizzlies UNDER 218.5
The Lakers and Grizzlies will square off for the second time in three days. The familiarity between these teams will lead us to an UNDER tonight, plus the fact that the Grizzlies are an UNDER team now that they are without their best player in JA Morant for a few weeks.
It's amazing the oddsmakers haven't adjusted this total much off the first meeting. The Lakers won 108-94 for 202 combined points. And now we have a 218.5-point total for the rematch here tonight, which is way too high.
The Lakers are an UNDER team as well as the UNDER is 5-0 in their last five games overall. The UNDER is 4-1 in Grizzlies last five games overall. The UNDER is 6-0 in Lakers last six road games. The UNDER is 8-0 in Grizzlies last eight home games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 9-0 in the last nine meetings. These last three trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|01-04-21||Hornets +9.5 v. 76ers||Top||101-118||Loss||-110||9 h 32 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +9.5
I like the spot for the Charlotte Hornets tonight. They will get their chance at revenge on the Philadelphia 76ers after losing to them 112-127 on Saturday. Now they get to face them again just two days later and will be the more motivated team in this rematch.
The Hornets shot just 41.3% as a team while the 76ers shot 59.3% as a team in that first meeting. It's actually surprising the 76ers didn't win by more than 15 with that disparity. You have to think the Hornets will close the gap in the rematch.
Remember, this is a Hornets team that pulled off two impressive upsets over Dallas as 8.5-point dogs and Brooklyn as 11-point dogs prior to two bad losses to Memphis and Philadelphia. So it's a good time to 'buy low' on them. It's also a good time to 'sell high' on the 76ers, who are off to a 5-1 start this season and have won and covered three in a row.
Plays against home favorites (Philadelphia) - after allowing 110 points or more against an opponent that's off two straight blowout losses by 15 points or more are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.
The Hornets are 32-17 ATS in their last 49 games off two or more consecutive losses. The 76ers are 7-23 ATS in their last 30 games off two or more consecutive ATS wins. Charlotte is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 games as an underdog. Bet the Hornets Monday.
|01-03-21||Blazers v. Warriors +5.5||122-137||Win||100||10 h 54 m||Show|
15* Blazers/Warriors NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +5.5
I like the situation for the Golden State Warriors tonight. They want revenge from a 98-123 home loss to the Blazers on Friday just two days ago. And now they go from being 3.5-point dogs in the first meeting to 5.5-point dogs in the rematch, so there's value here.
The Warriors will clearly be the more motivated team in this situation. And they aren't going to shoot as poorly as they did in the first meeting, going 7-of-35 (20%) from 3-point range. Conversely, the Blazers won't shoot as well as they did last time. They shot 20-of-43 (46.5%) from distance.
Plays against road teams (Portland) - off a road win, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 50-22 (69.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Blazers are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a losing record. Golden State is 24-11 ATS in its last 35 home meetings with Portland. Roll with the Warriors Sunday.
|01-03-21||Jazz v. Spurs +5||Top||130-109||Loss||-115||8 h 24 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +5
The San Antonio Spurs are highly motivated for a victory Sunday. They have lost three striaght since opening 2-0. And two of those losses came to the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers. One was by 6 points and they also lost to the Pelicans by 3 points. So they have been competitive in all but one game this season.
The Utah Jazz appear to be overvalued in the early going. They are 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall. They suffered upset losses to the Timberwolves as 9-point favorites and the Suns as 4-point favorites. They also only beat the Thunder 110-109 as 9-point favorites.
The Spurs are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 home games off two or more consecutive losses. The Jazz 5-21-2 ATS in their last 28 games as favorites. San Antonio is 19-9 ATS in its last 28 games as a home underdog. The Spurs are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 home meetings with the Jazz. Bet the Spurs Sunday.
|01-02-21||Kings +5 v. Rockets||94-102||Loss||-110||7 h 6 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Sacramento Kings +5
The Sacramento Kings want revenge from a 119-122 loss as 5.5-point dogs on New Year's Eve to the Houston Rockets. They don't have to wait long to get it as they will get to face the Rockets again in Houston just two days later here Saturday.
I have been very impressed with the Kings this season. They are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS despite playing all five games as underdogs against a tough schedule. They upset the Nuggets twice and the Suns once and were obviously competitive against the Rockets. This is one of the most underrated, young talented teams in the NBA early in the season.
I just don't like the mindset of the Houston Rockets right now. James Harden doesn't know if he wants to be there, and they're trying to implement a bunch of new pieces they acquired in the offseason. Plus COVID struck the team so they haven't had much practice time together. And it has shown with a 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS start this season.
The Kings are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. The Rockets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. Houston is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games. The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record. Take the Kings Saturday.
|01-01-21||Lakers v. Spurs +7||Top||109-103||Win||100||11 h 51 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +7
This is a great spot to back the San Antonio Spurs. They want revenge from a 107-121 loss to the Lakers on Wednesday, and they don't have to wait long to get it. Now they are 7-point underdogs in the rematch and will be the more motivated team here.
I expect the defending champion Lakers to relax, while the Spurs will have the gas pedal down for four quarters. And there's a decent chance the Spurs get back LaMarcus Aldridge, who sat out the first meeting with a knee injury. Either way, I like the Spurs to cover as Aldridge has actually not been great from an analytical standpoint. There's also a chance LeBron James sits as he is questionable with an ankle injury.
The Spurs are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games off two or more consecutive losses. The Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win. San Antonio is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog. Roll with the Spurs Friday.
|12-31-20||Cavs v. Pacers -7.5||99-119||Win||100||5 h 22 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana Pacers -7.5
The Indiana Pacers are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season. They are a blown 17-point lead against the Celtics from being 4-0 this season. First-year head coach Nate Bjorkgren is doing a tremendous job with this team.
Of course, it helps that the Pacers have their two best players healthy this season, which wasn't the case last year. Victor Oladipo (22.7 PPG, 5.7 RPG) and Domantas Sabonis (21.8 PPG, 11.0 RPG, 7.3 APG) are two of the more underrated players in the NBA and off to fast starts. Malcolm Brogdon (20.8 PPG, 6.5 APG) is also healthy this season after missing some time last year.
The Cavaliers are overvalued after starting 3-1 this year. Their three wins came against Charlotte, Detroit and Philadelphia. They then lost 86-95 to the Knicks last time out. And the Cavaliers now have a lot of injury problems that they didn't have to start the season. They will be without Kevin Love, Dylan Windler, Isaac Okoro, Kevin Porter Jr. and Matthew Dellavedova.
Indiana has won four of its last five meetings with Cleveland all by 7 points or more. The Pacers are 22-9-2 ATS in the last 33 meetings. Cleveland is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 games after covering three of its last four ATS coming in. The Cavaliers are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Take the Pacers Thursday.
|12-30-20||Hornets +8 v. Mavs||Top||118-99||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +8
The Dallas Mavericks are overvalued off their shocking 124-73 win over the Clippers last time out. They had lost 115-138 to the Lakers and 102-106 to the Suns in their two prior games, so it came out of nowhere. And the Mavericks are still without Kristaps Porzingis, so they probably shouldn't be favored by 8 points against anyone.
The Hornets are 1-2 SU this season with an impressive 106-104 win over the Nets as 11.5-point dogs to flash their potential. They only lost 107-109 to the Thunder and 114-121 to the Cavs, so they were competitive in both losses. And I expect them to be competitive here against the Mavericks and stay within this 8-point spread.
The Hornets are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Charlotte is a perfect 8-0-1 ATS in its last nine games as an underdog. The Hornets are 22-6-1 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Mavericks are 8-20-2 ATS in their last 30 games following a win. Dallas is 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a losing record. Take the Hornets Wednesday.
|12-29-20||Bucks -5 v. Heat||144-97||Win||100||10 h 0 m||Show|
15* Bucks/Heat TNT ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee -5
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Milwaukee Bucks after opening the season 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS. They lost on banked 3-pointer by the Celtics just before the buzzer. They crushed Golden State 138-99 to flash their potential. And the buy low opportunity comes from their 110-130 loss at New York as 13-point favorites.
Now the Bucks are just 5-point favorites over the Miami Heat tonight. They want revenge on the Heat after getting upset by them in the playoffs last year with their season coming to an end at the hands of Miami. Plus, they won't have to face Miami's best player in Jimmy Butler, who is out with an ankle injury.
Milwaukee is 31-16 ATS in its last 47 games following a SU loss. The Bucks are 45-27 ATS in their last 72 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Bucks are 27-12 ATS in their last 29 games off an upset loss as a favorite. Take the Bucks Tuesday.
|12-28-20||Blazers +4 v. Lakers||Top||115-107||Win||100||11 h 18 m||Show|
20* Blazers/Lakers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +4
The Los Angeles Lakers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a win over Minnesota yesterday. They could decide to sit both Lebron James (ankle) and Anthony Davis (calf) given the situation. Both are listed as questionable.
Either way, the Blazers will be highly motivated to take on the defending champs tonight. I know we'll get a big effort from them, especially after losing in five games to the Lakers in the playoffs last year, so they will have revenge in mind. And they are starting out 2020-21 very healthy with the Big 3 of Lillard, McCollum and Nurkic all playing big minutes in each of their first two games this season.
The Blazers are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 meetings in Los Angeles. The Lakers are 12-27 ATS in their last 39 home games after leading their previous game by 20-plus points at halftime. Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a win. Take the Blazers Monday.
|12-27-20||Celtics v. Pacers +2.5||107-108||Win||100||9 h 33 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana Pacers +2.5
The Indiana Pacers played great in the preseason for new head coach Nate Bjorkgren. They are going with a faster-paced style and a lot of 3-pointers. And they won 121-107 over the Knicks in their opener despite making only 8-of-34 (23.5%) of their 3-point attempts.
This is one of the most underrated teams in the NBA with a ton of talent and depth. Five different players scored in double figures against the Knicks led by 32 from Sabonis, who is an All-Star who missed significant time last season. As did Oladipo (22 points) and Brogdon (21), who are both healthy to start the season. And Turner (10) and Warren (5) were huge contributors last year. McDermott (13), McConnel (5) and the Holiday brothers (13 combined) provide some great production off the bench.
The Pacers came back yesterday and crushed the Bulls 125-106 as a premium pick for us. They shot 56% as a team but just 35% from 3-point range. And their starters played limited minutes with nobody getting more than 33 minutes, so they should still be fresh here for the Celtics.
This is a Boston team that just lost 95-123 to the Brooklyn Nets last time out. The Celtics really missed PG Kemba Walker as they will be a team to fade until he returns. Not to mention they lost Gordon Hayward this offseason. They are too reliant on Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum to provide their offense. I'll gladly back the deeper Pacers who play well together as a team. Take the Pacers Sunday.
|12-26-20||Pacers -4.5 v. Bulls||125-106||Win||100||10 h 24 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -4.5
The Indiana Pacers played great in the preseason for new head coach Nate Bjorkgren. They are going with a faster-paced style and a lot of 3-pointers. And they won 121-107 over the Knicks in their opener despite making only 8-of-34 (23.5%) of their 3-point attempts.
This is one of the most underrated teams in the NBA with a ton of talent and depth. Five different players scored in double figures against the Knicks led by 32 from Sabonis, who is an All-Star who missed significant time last season. As did Oladipo (22 points) and Brogdon (21), who are both healthy to start the season. And Turner (10) and Warren (5) were huge contributors last year. McDermott (13), McConnel (5) and the Holiday brothers (13 combined) provide some great production off the bench.
The Bulls are in rebuilding mode under first-year head coach Billy Donavan. They were blasted 104-124 by the Atlanta Hawks in their opener and trailed by as many as 37 points. The Hawks were held to 13 points in the 4th quarter and still won by 20. The Pacers should make easy work of them as well. Roll with the Pacers Saturday.
|12-25-20||Clippers v. Nuggets +2.5||121-108||Loss||-104||13 h 11 m||Show|
15* Clippers/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +2.5 I think we're getting value on the Denver Nuggets tonight based off results from opening night. The Clippers pulled the upset over the Lakers, while the Nuggets were upset by the Kings. So instead of Denver being a favorite as it should be, we are now getting the Nuggets as underdogs. We saw who was the better team in the playoffs last year when the Nuggets took out the Clippers in seven games. And the Nuggets have only gotten stronger as they have great chemistry with basically the same guys back this year, plus another year of development for this young, talented squad. The Clippers lost some key pieces in the offseason like Harrell. The Nuggets are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games as underdogs. Denver is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following an ATS loss. The Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as favorites. Denver is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Roll with the Nuggets Friday.
|12-23-20||Jazz v. Blazers -1||Top||120-100||Loss||-109||11 h 57 m||Show|
20* Jazz/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -1
The Portland Trail Blazers made a big run in the bubble last year just to make the playoffs. It showed what they could do when they are healthy, and that is the case for them to open the 2020-21 campaign here.
Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are still the cornerstones. Jusuf Nurkic and Rodney Hood are back after serious injuries kept them off the floor for length stretches last season. They brought back Enes Kanter and Carmelo Anthony to provide scoring punch off the bench. And they acquired Robert Covington and Derrick Jones Jr. to shore up their defense. I absolutely love this team this season.
Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell are cornerstones for the Jazz, but I'm not a huge fan of the rest of their team. Joe Ingles and Mike Conley are old. As is one of their biggest acquisitions in Derrick Favors, who spent 8.5 seasons in Utah before getting traded to New Orleans.
Portland is 37-16 SU in its last 53 home meetings with Utah. The Blazers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Blazers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home meetings with the Jazz. The home team won all three meetings last season. Roll with the Blazers Wednesday.
|12-22-20||Clippers v. Lakers -2.5||116-109||Loss||-110||10 h 6 m||Show|
15* Clippers/Lakers NBA Season Opener on Los Angeles Lakers -2.5
The Los Angeles Lakers should come out hitting on all cylinders. They won the NBA title last year and return all their key pieces from that team plus add in some nice players, including former Clipper Montrezl Harrell and Marc Gasol. Not to mention last year's top draft pick Talen Horton-Tucker had a monster preseason with 20.5 PPG and 53.8% 3-point shooting as the Lakers cruised to a 4-0 record.
Things didn't go near as smoothly for the Clippers in the preseason. They went 0-3 and lost to the Lakers twice 81-87 and 106-131. And they played their starters more minutes in those games than the Lakers did. The Clippers also lost 105-125 to the Jazz. They are trying to implement several new players and things will probably start poorly for them this season, starting with this showdown with the Lakers. Bet the Lakers Tuesday.
|10-11-20||Lakers v. Heat +6||Top||106-93||Loss||-105||9 h 35 m||Show|
20* Heat/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Miami +6
The Los Angeles Lakers got a monster game from Lebron James and a solid one from Anthony Davis in Game 5 and still couldn’t beat the Heat. That’s a great sign for the resilient Heat moving forward in this series.
Once again, the Heat are catching too many points in Game 6. They were only getting 4.5 in Game 1, and oddsmakers have adjusted their lines drastically since. They have gone 3-0-1 ATS in the last four games in this series while being anywhere from a 6 to 10-point dog. And now they are 6-point dogs for Game 6.
Amazingly, the Lakers have made more 3-pointers than the Heat in four of five games in this series. They were tied at 14 apiece in Game 5, but the Lakers have still made 12 more 3-pointers in this series than the Heat. And Miami is one of the best shooting teams in the NBA, while the Lakers are one of the worst. Maybe this is finally the game the Heat make more, even though they’ve proven they don’t need to to hang in this series.
Miami is 15-4 ATS in all playoff games this season. The Heat have bee grossly underrated all postseason, and they continue to be in Game 6 tonight. It has to be deflating to LeBron to play as well as he did in Game 5 and still come up short. It’s going to give Miami belief, and it’s going to give LeBron and company doubt. Bet the Heat in Game 6 Sunday.
|10-09-20||Heat +7.5 v. Lakers||Top||111-108||Win||100||26 h 22 m||Show|
20* Heat/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Miami +7.5
The Miami Heat were 4.5-point dogs in Game 1 of this series. They are now 7.5-point dogs in Game 5. There’s value with the Heat, just as there has been in each of the last three games as they were 7.5, 9 and 10-point dogs. They went 2-0-1 ATS in those three games.
The remarkable part about this series is that the Heat are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA while the Lakers are one of the worst. But the Lakers have made more 3-pointers than the Heat in every game thus far and lead with 59 makes compared to just 45 for the Heat. I guess you could say the Heat are due to out-shoot them.
Getting Bam Adebayo back for Game 4 was huge for the Heat and it was a one-possession game almost the entire way. He has two more days to recover and heal up now after they last played on Tuesday. The Heat won’t go down without a fight, and I love them catching 7.5 points in this elimination game. Miami is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games overall. Bet the Heat in Game 5 Friday.
|10-06-20||Lakers v. Heat +7.5||Top||102-96||Win||100||12 h 35 m||Show|
20* Heat/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Miami +7.5
What’s amazing is that the Miami Heat still won Game 3 despite making fewer 3-pointers than the Lakers for a 3rd straight game. They won in blowout fashion even 115-104. At some point the Heat being the 2nd-best 3-point shooting team in the NBA is going to show in this series.
The Lakers have now made 45 3-pointers in this series compared to just 34 for the Heat. This should even itself over the course of the remainder of the series considering the Lakers are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the NBA.
And there’s good news on the horizon for the Heat as Bam Adebayo has been upgraded to questionable for this game, and he’s likely to play. His defense on the inside is huge for this team. And it makes sense that this line has went from 9.5 down to 7.5 for Game 4 with his expected return.
It’s still too high, and there’s not 7.5 points difference between these two teams. Keep in mind the line was 4.5 for Game 1. Bet the Heat in Game 4 Tuesday.
|10-04-20||Lakers v. Heat +9.5||Top||104-115||Win||100||11 h 46 m||Show|
20* Heat/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Miami +9.5
The Miami Heat are the better 3-point shooting team than the Lakers in this series. Yet, the Lakers have out-shot them in both of the first two games of this series. I have to think the Heat will shoot better than the Lakers in 3 tonight with the law of averages.
The Lakers made 15 3-pointers in Game 1 compared to just 11 for Miami. In Game 2, the Lakers made 16 while the Heat made only 11. And the Heat are having to go small ball now and put more shooters on the floor with their injuries. But there is a chance they get Adebayo back tonight, which would be huge for them.
The Heat are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss. Miami is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games overall. Miami is 23-8 ATS off a loss this season. Bet the Heat in Game 3 Sunday.
|10-02-20||Heat +10 v. Lakers||Top||114-124||Push||0||12 h 4 m||Show|
25* NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Heat +10
This is too big of an adjustment for the injuries to Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic. The Heat go from being 4.5-point dogs in Game 1 to 10-point dogs in Game 2 with the news that Adebayo and Dragic are both doubtful.
The Heat have been one of the deepest teams in the NBA all season. So they have the depth to overcome these injuries, and more importantly the heart to overcome them. You know Jimmy Butler will do more, and I expect his supporting cast to follow his lead in this game.
The Heat are a perfect 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss. They winning SU by an average of 9.0 points per game in this spot. The Heat are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss dating back further. Bet the Heat in Game 2 Friday.
|09-30-20||Heat +5 v. Lakers||Top||98-116||Loss||-115||11 h 17 m||Show|
20* Heat/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Miami +5
The Miami Heat have been the most impressive team in the playoffs. They dismantled the Pacers in four games, the Bucks in five and the Celtics in six. They just play so well together as a team and don’t have a weakness.
The Los Angeles Lakers pretty much cruised their way to the NBA Finals. They faced a banged up Blazers team, a Rockets team that couldn’t handle their size, and a Nuggets team that was running on fumes after two seven-game series but still gave them a run for their money.
Bam Adebayo is one of the most underrated players in the NBA. He is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate every season and will match up with Anthony Davis as well as anyone. And the Heat have defenders to slow down LeBron James as much as possible in Butler, Iguodala and Crowder. This is actually a great matchup for the Heat, and it should show starting with Game 1.
Miami is 12-3 SU & 12-3 ATS in playoff games this season. Bet the Heat in Game 1 Wednesday.
|09-27-20||Celtics v. Heat UNDER 214.5||113-125||Loss||-106||8 h 42 m||Show|
15* Celtics/Heat ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 214.5
The Heat and Celtics have gone over the total in three straight games now. That has forced oddsmakers to set this total 7.5 points higher than it was in Game 2, which was set at 207. Now it’s 214.5 and the highest total of the series. There’s definitely value with the UNDER because of it. Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Sunday.
|09-26-20||Nuggets +5 v. Lakers||Top||107-117||Loss||-105||12 h 48 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Denver +5
The Denver Nuggets have erased two 3-1 deficits already in these playoffs for the first time in NBA playoff history. And here we are again with the Nuggets in this exact same situation, a spot that they are clearly comfortable with.
And the Nuggets seem to have figured out the Lakers since Game 1. They have shot 47.3% or better in every game in this series. They lost at the buzzer in Game 2, won 114-106 in Game 3 and only lost 108-114 in Game 4 after the Lakers got a lot of preferential treatment from the refs down the stretch. They shot a whopping 35 free throws in that game and that is unlikely to happen again.
Denver is 11-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the last two seasons. Bet the Nuggets Saturday.
|09-25-20||Heat v. Celtics UNDER 213.5||Top||108-121||Loss||-110||11 h 34 m||Show|
25* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Heat/Celtics UNDER 213.5
Oddsmakers have jacked this total up from 208.5 in Game 3 to 212 in Game 4 to 213.5 in Game 5. There’s now ample value to bet the UNDER in Game 5 tonight and we’ll take advantage.
It’s inflated because Games 3 and 4 went over the totals. But Game 4 was a dead nuts under until late in the game. It was 50-44 at halftime and it took a bunch of 3-pointers and fouls in the final minutes to get over the number. That’s unlikely to happen again.
Elimination games are always more tense, which brings to the table more of a half-court game and poor shooting. It also amps up the defense for both teams as one is trying to advance to the NBA Finals, while the other is fighting to stay alive.
The UNDER is 12-5 in Celtics last 17 games overall. The UNDER is 6-1 in Celtics last seven games following an ATS loss. The UNDER is 5-1 in Celtics last six games following a SU loss. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|09-24-20||Lakers v. Nuggets +6||114-108||Push||0||10 h 10 m||Show|
15* Nuggets/Lakers TNT ANNIHILATOR on Denver +6
The Denver Nuggets are so resilient. They came up with a big effort in Game 2 as 5.5-point dogs and lost at the buzzer, 103-105. And they rebounded with a 114-106 victory as 5.5-point dogs in Game 3. Now they are catching 6 points in Game 4 tonight.
The Nuggets are now 11-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the last two seasons. I’m not about to go against this trend, instead I’ll back it as Denver continues coming up big when behind tonight. Bet the Nuggets Thursday.
|09-23-20||Celtics v. Heat UNDER 211||Top||109-112||Loss||-110||10 h 15 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Heat ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 211
The Miami Heat and Boston Celtics will certainly be prepared for each other heading into Game 4. After all, they’ve had three days off in between games to practice and prepare.
That’s going to favor the UNDER big-time in Game 4 tonight. It already favors defense the longer a series goes on, but that will especially be the case in this series with this delay in action.
In Game 3 the refs were whistle-happy and sent both teams to the free throw line 30-plus times. The Heat were 28-of-34 from the charity stripe, while the Celtics were 26-of-30. They had shot just 38 combined free throws in Game 2 and that went up to 64 in Game 3. There won’t be nearly as many fouls called in Game 4 tonight.
The UNDER is 12-4 in Celtics last 16 games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Heat last four games following a loss. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|09-22-20||Lakers v. Nuggets +6.5||Top||106-114||Win||100||11 h 46 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Denver +6.5
The Denver Nuggets have been the comeback kids in these playoffs, and being down 0-2 won’t phase them at all. They overcame two 3-1 deficits to win the first two series for the first time in NBA history.
The Nuggets really showed they could play with the Lakers in Game 2 in their 103-105 loss at the buzzer. They have also proven they are a matchup problem for the Lakers as they shot 49.4% in Game 1 and 47.3% in Game 2.
They are getting to the rim, but they haven’t shot the 3-pointer to their potential yet, making fewer than 10 in each of their first two games. They made 9 in Game 1 and just 8 in Game 2. Look for them to get double-digit 3-pointers in Game 3 tonight.
Denver is 10-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the last two seasons. Bet the Nuggets Tuesday.
|09-20-20||Nuggets +7.5 v. Lakers||103-105||Win||100||13 h 17 m||Show|
15* Nuggets/Lakers TNT ANNIHILATOR on Denver +7.5
The Denver Nuggets were clearly tired coming off two seven-game series in Game 1. They did not play well, and the Lakers blitzed them for a 126-114 win. Look for the Nuggets to bounce back in Game 2 and make a game of this.
The Nuggets are used to being down and probably are more comfortable in this role now after overcoming two 3-1 deficits. They will have the belief, and they did find plenty of holes in the Lakers’ defense in Game 1 as they shot 49.4% front the field.
But they only made 9 3-pointers, which was one of their lowest totals of the playoffs. And they turned the ball over 16 times, which was likely due to fatigue. Look for them to be much sharper in Game 2 tonight.
Denver is 9-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the last two seasons. The Nuggets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs. Take the Nuggets Sunday.
|09-19-20||Celtics v. Heat UNDER 207.5||Top||117-106||Loss||-105||11 h 2 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Heat ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 207.5
As we’ve seen all playoffs, as a series goes on points are harder to come by. Teams become familiar with one another and it favors defense. The game slows down to a half court affair almost every time.
The Celtics and Heat combined for 207 points in Game 2, which would be low enough to cash this UNDER. And it’s worth noting both teams shot well, especially the Celtics, who shot 50% from the field and that’s unlikely to happen again. The Heat shot 44.4% as a team.
The UNDER is 6-0 in Celtics last six games following an ATS loss. The UNDER 9-2 in Celtics last 11 games overall. The UNDER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|09-18-20||Nuggets v. Lakers -7||Top||114-126||Win||100||10 h 20 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles -7
The Los Angeles Lakers are rested and ready to go in the Western Conference Finals. They made easy work of the Houston Rockets in five games, getting better as the series went on. After losing Game 1, they went on to win four straight all by 8 points or more.
The Denver Nuggets just became the first team in NBA history to erase two 3-1 deficits in the same postseason and come back to win the series. They have put a lot of mileage on their tires, and it’s only human nature for them to come out flat in Game 1 tonight.
We saw that last series when they were completely flat in Game 1 against the Clippers. They lost that game 97-120, and we should see a similar result here. The Lakers have won three of their four meetings with the Nuggets this season.
Denver is 4-12 ATS after successfully covering the spreading two or more consecutive games this season. The Nuggets are 8-20 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season. Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall. Bet the Lakers Friday.
|09-17-20||Heat v. Celtics UNDER 209.5||106-101||Win||100||8 h 42 m||Show|
15* Heat/Celtics ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 209.5
The Heat and Celtics combined for 212 points at the end of regulation in Game 1. And it took a big 58-point 4th quarter to get there. Look for them to combine for fewer than 209.5 points at the end of regulation in Game 2, so we’ll take the UNDER and hope to avoid overtime.
Both teams shot the ball pretty well in Game 1. The Heat shot 47.1% from the field and were 16-of-36 (44.4%) from 3-point range. That’s not going to happen again. The Celtics shot 44.3% from the field and 15-of-42 (35.7%) from 3-point range. Those numbers are close to their season averages. They also shot 21-of-23 (91.3%) from the charity stripe.
As we’ve seen in the playoffs, as a series goes on, points are harder to come by because teams become more familiar with one another and it favors defense. The books set a 208-point total in Game 1, and now they’ve actually raised it to 209.5, so I think there’s value with the UNDER.
Boston is 13-5 UNDER when revenging a loss as a favorite this season. The UNDER is 7-3 in Heat last 10 games overall. The UNDER is 5-0 in Celtics last five games following an ATS loss. The UNDER is 8-2 in Celtics last 10 games overall. The UNDER is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|09-15-20||Heat +108 v. Celtics||Top||117-114||Win||108||7 h 23 m||Show|
20* Heat/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Miami ML +108
The Miami Heat are now 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in the playoffs. They swept the Pacers and beat the Bucks in five games. They are the real deal, yet they are getting no respect from oddsmakers here as underdogs to the Boston Celtics in Game 1.
This despite the fact that the Heat are the fresher team having a week off to get ready for this game. And all that extra preparation they got leading up to this series, they will be ready for Game 1 tonight with a great game plan from Erik Spoelstra.
The Celtics should still be fresh with three days off in between games, but they did just have to go seven games with the Toronto Raptors. And it’s worth noting the Heat upset the Celtics 112-106 as 4-point underdogs in their lone meeting in the bubble. Bet the Heat Tuesday.
|09-13-20||Clippers v. Nuggets UNDER 215||Top||98-111||Win||100||3 h 39 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Clippers ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 215 We’ve seen this entire 2nd round of the playoffs where games become lower and lower scoring as the series goes on. We’re now into Game 6 between the Nuggets and Clippers, and this could be the lowest scoring game yet. Game 5 saw 216 combined points, but it took a huge comeback by the Nuggets and a 63-point 4th quarter to get there. I don’t see that happening again. Plus, the Nuggets had their best shooting game of the series at 48.1%, which also isn’t going to happen again. This should be closer to Game 4 when the Clippers won 96-85 in a defensive battle. The UNDER is 4-0-2 in Clippers last six games overall. The UNDER is 8-1-2 in Clippers last 11 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The UNDER is 4-0-2 in Nuggets last six games overall. The UNDER is 40-18-2 in the last 60 meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|09-12-20||Rockets v. Lakers UNDER 215.5||Top||96-119||Win||100||12 h 11 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Lakers ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 215.5
I cashed in the Rockets/Lakers UNDER in Game 4 and I’m back on the UNDER today. Three of four games in this series have seen 214 combined points or fewer. The Lakers are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, and the Rockets get a bad reputation as their defense is better than their ’small ball’ lineup would suggest.
As we’ve seen with every series in the 2nd round, points come hard to get the deeper a series goes. Teams get familiar with one another, and there are fewer fast break opportunities. It basically becomes a half court game in the playoffs the deeper a series goes.
Houston is 15-3 UNDER after allowing 110 points or more in three straight games this season. Los Angeles is 25-12 UNDER after scoring 110 points or more in three straight games over the past two seasons. The UNDER is 6-1 in Rockets last seven games overall. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings. Bet the UNDER in Game 5 Saturday.
|09-11-20||Celtics -2.5 v. Raptors||Top||92-87||Win||100||10 h 18 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Raptors TNT No-Brainer on Boston -2.5
The Toronto Raptors are very fortunate to still be alive in this series. They needed a buzzer-beater in Game 3 to avoid falling down 0-3, and they needed double-overtime to win Game 6. The Celtics have clearly been the better team in this series, and they will win Game 7 by being the better team tonight.
Boston hasn’t shot worse than 42.1% in any game in the series, and has shot 44% or better in five of the six games. Toronto has shot 43.6% or worse in five of six games, and 40% or worse in four of those. The Celtics are clearly the better defensive team.
Boston is 18-9 ATS when revenging a loss this season. The Celtics are 13-3 ATS when playing against a top level team that wins more than 70% of their games this season. Boston is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss. Bet the Celtics Friday.
|09-11-20||Nuggets v. Clippers UNDER 216||111-105||Push||0||8 h 48 m||Show|
15* Nuggets/Clippers TNT Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 216
The Nuggets and Clippers are coming off a very low scoring Game 4 and oddsmakers haven set this total too high once again for Game 5. They just combined for 181 points in a 96-85 victory for the Clippers in Game 4.
Now they have the total at 216, which they have lowered, but it’s just not low enough. As a playoff series goes on, teams become more familiar with one another, which favors defense. And it leads to fewer fast breaks and a lot of half court offense.
The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Nuggets last five games overall. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Clippers last five games overall. The UNDER is 40-18-1 in the last 59 meetings. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.
|09-10-20||Lakers v. Rockets UNDER 219.5||Top||110-100||Win||100||7 h 28 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 219.5
Both the Lakers and Rockets shot really well in Game 3 and it still saw just 214 combined points. The Lakers shot 55.1% while the Rockets shot 46.9% from the field. I would have a hard time seeing either team shooting as well in Game 4.
As we’ve seen with the other 2nd round series thus far, the deeper it gets into the series, the harder it is to score points. That’s because teams become more familiar with one another, and it inevitably becomes a half-court game with few fast break opportunities.
The UNDER is 5-1 in Rockets last six games overall. The UNDER is 35-15-1 in Rockets last 51 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|09-09-20||Clippers v. Nuggets +8||Top||96-85||Loss||-106||9 h 19 m||Show|
20* Clippers/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +8
The Denver Nuggets have really impressed since coming out flat in Game 1. That was expected as they were just coming off a 7-game series against the Jazz in which they put a lot into coming back from a 3-1 deficit to win that series.
But the Nuggets look rejuvenated in their last two games. They pulled the 110-101 upset in Game 2 as 8.5-point dogs, and led most the way over the Clippers in Game 3, only to fall short 107-113.
The Clippers even shot 54.7% as a team in Game 3 and still only won by 6 points. It’s going to take a lot for the Clippers to be able to put away the Nuggets by 8-point points tonight.
Denver is 8-0 ATS after two straight games where they attempted 10-plus fewer free throws than their opponent over the last three seasons. The Nuggets are coming back to win by 10.2 points per game in this spot. Bet the Nuggets Wednesday.
|09-08-20||Lakers -4.5 v. Rockets||Top||112-102||Win||100||11 h 38 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -4.5
The Los Angeles Lakers bounced back nicely in Game 2 with a 117-109 victory as 5.5-point favorites over the Houston Rockets. Now they go up 2-1 with another win and cover in Game 3 tonight.
The Lakers won despite the Rockets making 10 more 3-pointers (22) than they did (12). Los Angeles took advantage of its size and got easy bucket after easy bucket. The Lakers shot 47-of-83 (56.6%) from the field. Look for them to continue to be aggressive with Lebron and Anthony Davis both getting to the rim at will.
The Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games playing on one days’ rest. The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games playing on one days’ rest. Houston is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games following a SU loss. Bet the Lakers Tuesday.
|09-07-20||Celtics -1.5 v. Raptors||Top||111-89||Win||100||7 h 28 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Raptors TNT No-Brainer on Boston -1.5
The Boston Celtics were one shot away from being up 3-0 in this series. They suffered a heartbreaker in Game 3 at the buzzer, and then in Game 4 they simply shot poorly while the Raptors shot lights out from 3-point range.
Indeed, the Celtics had their worst shooting game of the series, making just 7-of-35 (20%) from distance. The Raptors shot 17-of-44 (38.6%) in the same game, yet the Celtics still had a chance late and only lost 93-100. Look for a role reversal here.
Even though I cashed the Raptors the last two games, I still believe the Celtics are the better team in this series, so I have to side with them in this all-important Game 5. Boston is 12-2 ATS vs. teams that win more than 70% of their games this season. Bet the Celtics Monday.
|09-06-20||Rockets v. Lakers -5.5||Top||109-117||Win||100||10 h 29 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Lakers ABC Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5.5
The Los Angeles Lakers showed some rust in Game 1 against the Blazers in the first round because they weren’t trying too hard in the bubble. But they rebounded to win the next four games, including a 111-88 blowout in Game 2.
The Lakers were rusty again coming into Game 1 against the Rockets in Round 2. They had six days off prior to Game 1 and the rust showed. The Lakers shot just 42.2% from the field and 28.9% from the 3-point line. Look for them to be much sharper in Game 2 tonight.
Now the Lakers go from being 6.5-point favorites in Game 1 down to 5.5-point favorites in Game 2. I don’t agree with the line adjustment, and there’s clearly value with the Lakers here as they’ll be the team playing with more of a sense of urgency than Houston. Bet the Lakers Sunday.
|09-05-20||Raptors +1.5 v. Celtics||100-93||Win||100||8 h 29 m||Show|
15* Raptors/Celtics TNT ANNIHILATOR on Toronto +1.5
The Toronto Raptors are going to have a great mindset heading into Game 4 tonight. They saved their season with a 3-point buzzer beater in a 104-103 win over Boston in Game 3 after losing a 99-102 heartbreaker in Game 2. Now they have the belief they can get it done.
The Celtics have simply shot better than the Raptors from 3-point range in this series, which has really been the difference. The Celtics are 41-of-106 (38.7%) for the series while the Raptors are 34-of-120 (28.3%). The Raptors shot it better than the Celtics during the regular season so that should even itself out, and it did in Game 3.
Toronto is 14-3 ATS off a win by 6 points or less this season. The Raptors are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six playoff games as underdogs. Toronto is 45-22 ATS in its last 67 games playing on one days’ rest. Take the Raptors Saturday.
|09-04-20||Bucks -5 v. Heat||Top||100-115||Loss||-103||18 h 39 m||Show|
20* Bucks/Heat TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -5
The Milwaukee Bucks are basically in a must-win situation here now down 0-2 to the Miami Heat. While I knew the Heat would give them a series because they are gritty and have great shooting, I have to go against the Heat in this situation.
Miami will relax while Milwaukee will simply want it more. And I trust Mike Budenholzer to make the proper adjustments in this one. The Bucks shot poorly and still almost won Game 2, shooting 43.5% from the floor and 28% from 3-point range. I expect them to improve upon those numbers in Game 3 tonight.
Milwaukee is 45-25 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons. The Bucks are 25-11 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last two seasons. Milwaukee is 32-15 ATS in its last 47 games following a loss. Bet the Bucks Friday.
|09-03-20||Raptors -112 v. Celtics||Top||104-103||Win||100||8 h 29 m||Show|
25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Toronto Raptors ML -112
The Toronto Raptors blew a double-digit lead in the 2nd half over the Celtics in Game 2. It was all Marcus Smart as he went 5-of-6 from 3-point range in the 4th quarter alone and was unconscious. I don’t see that happening again.
Now down 0-2, the Raptors are in must-win mode, and I trust their championship pedigree to get the job done in Game 3 and get back into this series. They clearly have not played up to their potential in the first two games of this series.
Indeed, the Raptors shot just 36.9% in Game 1 and 10-of-40 (25%) from 3-point range. Then they shot just 40% in Game 2 and 11-of-40 (27.5%) from 3-point range. They are now 21-of-80 (26.3%) from distance in the series while Boston is 32-of-77 (41.6%). That discrepancy can’t continue. Toronto shoots 37.4% on the season while Boston shoots 36.5%.
The Raptors are 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 games following an ATS loss. Toronto is 45-21 ATS in its last 66 games playing on one days’ rest. Bet the Raptors Thursday.
|09-02-20||Heat v. Bucks -5||Top||116-114||Loss||-106||8 h 22 m||Show|
20* Heat/Bucks ESPN No-Brainer on Milwaukee -5
The Milwaukee Bucks lost Game 1 to the Orlando Magic last series and promptly bounced back with four straight double-digit victories. While it won’t come as easily against the Miami Heat, I do expect the Bucks to bounce back with a win and cover in Game 2 tonight.
The Bucks shot just 14-of-26 (53.8%) from the free throw line in Game 1 while theHeat shot 25-of-27 (92.6%). That was the difference. Also, the Bucks only had one day to prepare for Miami, while the Heat had a whole week to prepare for Milwaukee after sweeping the Pacers. Look for Mike Budenholzer to make the proper adjustments leading into Game 2.
The Heat are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs. Miami is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games off a SU win by more than 10 points. Milwaukee is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 games following a SU loss, including 12-3 ATS in its last 15 following a SU loss by more than 10 points. Bet the Bucks Wednesday.
|09-01-20||Celtics v. Raptors -120||Top||102-99||Loss||-120||5 h 14 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Raptors ESPN No-Brainer on Toronto ML -120
I cashed with the Celtics in Game 1, but I’m taking the Raptors to bounce back in Game 2. I do believe the Celtics are the better team in this series, but it has seven games written all over it.
Toronto shot very poorly in Game 1. They made just 36.9% from the field and 10-of-40 (25%) from 3-point range. The Celtics shot 47% from the field and 17-of-39 (43.6%) from distance. Look for those numbers to be a lot more in the Raptors’ favor tonight.
Toronto is 13-3 ATS off a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last three seasons. The Raptors are 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games off an ATS loss. Bet the Raptors Tuesday.
|08-31-20||Rockets v. Thunder +6||Top||100-104||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Thunder TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +6
The Oklahoma City Thunder showed some resiliency fighting back from an 0-2 deficit to tie this series. Now they will show it again after their worst performance of the series in Game 5 and come back with a much better effort in Game 6.
The Thunder shot just 31.5% as a team and 7-of-46 (15.2%) from 3-point range in Game 5. That’s not going to happen again. The Rockets aren’t a very good defensive team with their small ball lineup, so it was more of a case of the Thunder just missing good looks in Game 5 than Houston’s D.
Houston is 15-31 ATS in its last 46 games off a win by 30 points or more. The Rockets are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games when attempting to close out a playoff series. Oklahoma City is 26-11 ATS in its last 37 games as an underdog. The Thunder are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss by more than 10 points. Bet the Thunder Monday.
|08-30-20||Celtics +2 v. Raptors||112-94||Win||100||2 h 58 m||Show|
15* Celtics/Raptors ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Boston +2
The Boston Celtics just swept the Philadelphia 76ers and are ready to try and take down the defending champs starting with Game 1 of this series Sunday. Give the Raptors some credit for what they’ve done this season, but they clearly aren’t as good without Kawhi Leonard.
Boston went 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS against Toronto in the regular season. That includes a 22-point win and a 16-point win as they were clearly the dominant team in the head-to-head matchup. And I expect that to carry over into the playoffs. The wrong team is favored in Game 1 here.
Boston is 9-1 ATS when playing with three or more days’ rest over the last two seasons. The Celtics are 9-1 ATS when playing against a top level team that wins 70% or more of their games this season. The Celtics are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games as underdogs. Take the Celtics Sunday.
|08-29-20||Thunder +5.5 v. Rockets||Top||80-114||Loss||-115||8 h 11 m||Show|
20* Thunder/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +5.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder are brimming with confidence after erasing an 0-2 deficit to win Games 3 and 4 and tie this series back up. Now they take control of it with another victory in Game 5 tonight.
The Thunder opened the series as 1-point favorites in Game 1, and are now 5.5-point underdogs in Game 5. That’s a 6.5-point adjustment, and I don’t agree with it. I believe the wrong team is favored once again in Game 5 tonight.
The Rockets have shot worse than 44% from the field in eight of their last 11 games overall. Shots just aren’t coming as easily for the Rockets, and I think too much is being made of Russell Westbrook coming back for this game. He isn’t going to be back to full strength and there will be some rust and chemistry issues.
The Thunder are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games as underdogs. Oklahoma City is 29-14 ATS in its last 43 games playing on one days’ rest. The Rockets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss. Oklahoma City is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. Bet the Thunder Saturday.
|08-25-20||Jazz v. Nuggets +3||Top||107-117||Win||100||7 h 13 m||Show|
20* Jazz/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on Denver +3
It’s now or never for the Denver Nuggets, who find themselves in a 1-3 hole to the Utah Jazz with their season on the line in Game 5 tonight. I expect them to get the job done and extend this series to a 6th game.
The Jazz only won 129-127 in Game 4 as 3.5-point favorites despite shooting 57.5% from the field and making 19 more free throws than Denver. Both of those things aren’t going to happen again, and thus the Nuggets should be able to win.
I was on the Nuggets in Game 4 and cashed, and I’m on them again for similar reasons. They were 4.5-point favorites over the Jazz in Game 1, and now they are 3-point underdogs in Game 5. That’s a 7.5-point adjustment and too much.
The Jazz are 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 games as favorites. Utah is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. Denver is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet the Nuggets Tuesday.
|08-24-20||Lakers v. Blazers +7.5||135-115||Loss||-105||12 h 43 m||Show|
15* Lakers/Blazers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +7.5
The Portland Trail Blazers are catching too many points in Game 4 tonight as they try and square this series. They upset the Lakers in Game 1, and the Lakers understandably came back with a big effort in Game 2.
But the Blazers gave the Lakers all they could handle in Game 3 and lost 108-116 as 8-point dogs. They will play an even better game here with their season essentially on the line.
It’s only a matter of time before the Blazers shoot the ball better in this series. They shot 39.2% in Game 1, 40% in Game 2 and 41.1% in Game 3. The Lakers shot 50% in Game 3 and they still only lost by 8. Only a slight improvement will have them covering this 7.5-point spread with ease.
The Lakers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall. The Blazers are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning record. Portland has just one loss by more than 8 points since the restart, which is a span of 12 games. Take the Blazers Monday.
|08-24-20||Rockets v. Thunder +3.5||Top||114-117||Win||100||7 h 43 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Thunder TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +3.5
With their season essentially on the line, the Oklahoma City Thunder came through with a huge 119-107 (OT) victory over the Houston Rockets in Game 3. They had to battle adversity and poor officiating down the stretch of regulation to get the win.
The way they won that game will give the Thunder a lot of confidence heading into Game 4 tonight to try and square this series. And I expect it to pay dividends for them in the 4th quarter.
The Thunder are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. They have shown that in their last two games, limiting the Rockets to just 41.8% shooting in Game 2 and 41.3% shooting in Game 3. It’s a Rockets team that just hasn’t shot it very well since the restart because they have such poor shot selection. They have been held to less than 44% in eight of their last 10 games overall.
Oklahoma City is 14-6 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. The Rockets are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss. Houston is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a SU loss by more than 10 points. The Thunder are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games as underdogs. Bet the Thunder Monday.
|08-23-20||Nuggets +3.5 v. Jazz||Top||127-129||Win||100||13 h 47 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +3.5
The Denver Nuggets were embarrassed in Games 2 and 3 and will come back with their biggest effort of the series in Game 4 to try and square it at 2-2.
From a line value prospective alone this is the play with the Nuggets as 3.5-point dogs when you consider they were 4.5-point favorites in Game 1, an 8-point adjustment.
Denver is 20-8 ATS after failing to cover four of their last five ATS over the last three seasons. Utah is 4-15-2 ATS in its last 21 games as a favorite. Bet the Nuggets Sunday.
|08-22-20||Rockets v. Thunder +3.5||Top||107-119||Win||100||11 h 53 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Thunder ESPN No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +3.5
It’s now or never for the Oklahoma City Thunder. They blew a 59-53 halftime lead in Game 2 and got killed in the 2nd half. Look for them to respond in a big way today to take Game 3 and avoid falling in the dreaded 0-3 hole.
The Thunder haven’t shot the ball up to their potential in either game yet. They shot just 44% in Game 1 and 44.3% in Game 2. And it’s not like the Rockets are some defensive juggernaut with their small ball lineup, either. Scoring only 108 and 98 points, respectively, in the first two games of this series is unacceptable.
Oklahoma City is 14-6 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. The Thunder are 24-10 ATS in their last 34 games as underdogs overall. OKC is 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings with Houston, so it had covered five straight prior to the first two games of this series. Bet the Thunder Saturday.
|08-22-20||Pacers +5 v. Heat||115-124||Loss||-103||8 h 7 m||Show|
15* Pacers/Heat TNT Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +5
It’s now or never for the Indiana Pacers. They are down 0-2 to the Miami Heat while playing a couple of hard-fought games. They just couldn’t get the job done in the 4th quarter in either of the two games, but had their chances.
Look for the Pacers to come back with their best performance of the series today to avoid falling in the dreaded 0-3 hole. I think there’s great value with them here as 5-point underdogs after they were only 3.5-point dogs in Game 2. Victor Oladipo is back healthy after missing most of Game 1 with an eye contusion, and he means everything to their success.
Indiana is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS loss. The Pacers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a SU loss. Miami is 6-20-1 ATS in its last 27 games following a SU win. The Heat are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games following an ATS win. Take the Pacers Saturday.
|08-21-20||Clippers -5 v. Mavs||Top||130-122||Win||100||11 h 23 m||Show|
25* NBA 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Clippers -5
The Los Angeles Clippers played what will prove to be their worst game of the series in Game 2. They shot just 29.4% from 3-point range compared to 44.8% for Dallas and committed six more turnovers than the Mavericks. For whatever reason, they just weren’t into it.
I have no doubt the Clippers will come back with the intensity they need to put the Mavericks away in Game 3. They have the two best players on the court in Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, and their role players are also much better than that of Dallas. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Clippers win the next three games in this series.
Los Angeles is 12-3 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season. The Clippers are 14-4 ATS when revenging a loss as a favorite over the last two seasons. Los Angeles is 17-5 ATS following a loss this season. The Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win. Bet the Clippers Friday.
|08-21-20||Nuggets -1.5 v. Jazz||87-124||Loss||-104||6 h 19 m||Show|
15* Nuggets/Jazz TNT Early ANNIHILATOR on Denver -1.5
The Nuggets went from being 4.5-point favorites in Game 1 to 3.5-point favorites in Game 2. Now oddsmakers have listed them as only 1.5-point favorites in Game 3, which is a 3-point adjustment from the Game 1 line. I think the value is with the Nuggets in Game 3 as a result.
This adjustment is made from Utah playing a great Game 2 and shooting 51.7% in a 124-105 victory. They aren’t going to shoot that well again. It’s also adjusted for the expected return of Mike Conley, but he has been one of the most overrated players in the NBA this season as the Jazz have actually been just as good or better without him.
The Nuggets are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss. The Jazz are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win. Utah is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. Denver is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Take the Nuggets Friday.
|08-20-20||Thunder +3 v. Rockets||Top||98-111||Loss||-115||5 h 11 m||Show|
20* Thunder/Rockets ESPN No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +3
The Oklahoma City Thunder went from being favorites in Game 1 to 3-point underdogs in Game 2. This is too big of an adjustment just because the Rockets looked good in Game 1 in their 123-108 victory.
Look for the Thunder to play with more of a sense of urgency tonight. And I have a hard time believing the Rockets are going to shoot as well as they did in Game 1, which was 48.3% from the field with 20 made 3-pointers. The Thunder are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA.
Oklahoma City is 21-12 ATS when revenging a loss this season. The Thunder are 20-8 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. Oklahoma City is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a SU loss by more than 10 points. The Thunder are 41-20 ATS in their last 61 games as underdogs. The Rockets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites. Bet the Thunder Thursday.
|08-19-20||Mavs v. Clippers -6||Top||127-114||Loss||-104||10 h 13 m||Show|
20* Mavs/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -6
The Clippers are as healthy as they’ve been all season with the returns of Harrell, Beverly and Shamet for Game 1 of this series. They shook off their rust and came through with a 118-110 victory. They’re only going to continue to gel more with each passing game, and they are clearly the best team in the West in my opinion.
The Dallas Mavericks rely too much on Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. That’s because they lost key role players in Dwight Powell, Jalen Brunson, Courtney Lee and Willie Cauley-Stein to season ending injuries.
After a poor 1st half defensively giving up 69 points, the Clippers showed what they could do when they get after it defensively in the 2nd half. They held the Mavericks to just 41 points after intermission, which was the key to their victory. With stoppers like Kawhi Leonard, Beverly and Paul George, the Clippers can match up with Doncic and Porzingis as well as anyone.
The Mavericks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall. Dallas is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss. The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Los Angeles is 23-8 ATS in its last 31 games playing on one days’ rest. The Clippers are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings, winning by an average of 10 points pre game. Bet the Clippers Wednesday.
|08-18-20||Heat -4.5 v. Pacers||Top||113-101||Win||100||5 h 19 m||Show|
20* Heat/Pacers TNT No-Brainer on Miami -4.5
The Miami Heat are a real threat in the Eastern Conference. And they are just getting healthy in time for the playoffs with Butler, Dragic, Adebayo, Iguodala and Crowder all listed as probable tonight. Look for them to handle their business against the Indiana Pacers in Game 1 tonight.
The Heat are 3-1 SU against the Pacers this season, including a 114-92 win in the bubble when they were healthy. Their only loss came in their regular season finale when they had nothing to play for and rested everyone.
Give the Pacers credit for fighting through injuries of their own and still posting a 45-28 record this season. But it’s much easier to do that in the regular season than it is in the playoffs, and the fact of the matter is that they just aren’t talented enough to compete at this level, especially without All-Star Domantas Sabonis.
Miami is 27-14 ATS off two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons. The Heat are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games following a loss. Miami is 37-18 ATS in its last 55 games playing on three or more days’ rest. The Heat are 31-15-2 ATS in their last 48 games following an ATS loss. Bet the Heat Tuesday.
|08-17-20||Mavs v. Clippers -6||Top||110-118||Win||100||10 h 35 m||Show|
20* Mavs/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -6
The Los Angeles Clippers are more healthy now for the start of the playoffs than they were for the eight-game sample. They are expected to get back the guy that brings the infectious energy in Montrezl Harrell, and they could be getting back another guy in his same mold in Patrick Beverly. Landry Shamet also could return.
Either way, I think the Clippers have enough to take care of the Mavericks with room to spare in Game 1 of this series tonight. They won all three regular season meetings with the Mavericks, including two by 15 points each. They won 126-111 as 3.5-point favorites in the bubble on August 6th.
The Mavericks are just a shell of their former selves with the season-ending injuries to Dwight Powell, Courtney Lee and Willie Cauley-Stein. They don’t have near the depth that the Clippers do, and they rely too much on just two games in Doncic and Porzingis. Kawhi Leonard can shut down Doncic if Doc Rivers decides to go that route.
The Clippers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as favorites. Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning record. The Clippers are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet the Clippers Monday.
|08-15-20||Grizzlies +6.5 v. Blazers||Top||122-126||Win||100||3 h 9 m||Show|
20* Grizzlies/Blazers Play-In No-Brainer on Memphis +6.5
The Portland Trail Blazers only need to win one game against Memphis to make the playoffs. The Grizzlies need to win two games, so look for them to be playing with more of a sense of urgency in this Game 1 than the Blazers will be.
Portland clearly cannot be trusted to lay this big of a number either. While the Blazers went 6-2 in the restart, all eight games were decided by 10 points or less, and they have only two wins by more than 5 points. They just don’t play enough defense to put teams away, and they are a terrible rebounding team.
Memphis lost 135-140 in overtime to Portland during he restart. But the Grizzlies won 111-104 in their previous meeting back in February. And I expect this one to go right down to the wire as well, meaning there’s a lot of value with the Grizzlies +6.5 here. Bet the Grizzlies Saturday.
|08-13-20||Mavs v. Suns -7||Top||102-128||Win||100||6 h 11 m||Show|
20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -7
The Phoenix Suns need a win and either a loss by Memphis or Portland to make the play-in series for the 8th seed in the West. They’ve made it this far, and they’re not about to let up now.
The Suns are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS since the restart, the only undefeated team in the bubble. And they’re not only winning, they are dominating. Four of those seven wins have come by double-digits. They have won those seven games by an average of 11.3 points per game.
The Dallas Mavericks are locked into the 7th seed and looking ahead to their series with the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round. They won’t be too motivated to win this game, and they could rest their players with nicks and bruises.
The Suns are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings with the Mavericks. Phoenix is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Suns Thursday.
|08-12-20||Heat -1 v. Thunder||Top||115-116||Loss||-110||9 h 45 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -1
The Miami Heat just got Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic back from injury and promptly ended a two-game losing streak with an emphatic 114-92 win over Indiana as 4-point favorites Monday. Now I look for them to take down the Oklahoma City Thunder Wednesday.
While the Heat are almost fully healthy, the same cannot be said for the Thunder. They are without Dennis Schroder, and Steven Adams, Danilo Gallinari and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are all questionable to play tonight. Don’t be surprised if the Thunder play it safe here with the playoffs just around the corner, and playoff positioning not really a priority compared to their health. Bet the Heat Wednesday.
|08-11-20||Blazers -3.5 v. Mavs||Top||134-131||Loss||-110||8 h 12 m||Show|
25* NBA Restart GAME OF THE YEAR on Portland Trail Blazers -3.5
The Portland Trail Blazers are 4-2 SU & 4-1-1 ATS since the restart. They have been playing some great basketball and are closing in on making the play-in game in the West for the 8th and final seed. This is a much more important game for them than it is the Dallas Mavericks.
The Mavericks are in 7th place in the West and one game back of the Jazz. They are basically locked into this spot with two games to go. It’s why they decided to sit Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis last game, and both of them are questionable to play again tonight. The Mavericks have a ton of injuries they are dealing with right now and would be wise to play it safe.
Given the situation of both teams, the Blazers should be much bigger than only 3.5-point favorites tonight. Bet the Blazers Tuesday.
|08-11-20||Rockets v. Spurs -2.5||105-123||Win||100||4 h 42 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Early ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio Spurs -2.5
The San Antonio Spurs are just 0.5 games back of the Portland Trail Blazers for 9th place in the West and tied with Phoenix for 10th place. Remember, the 8th seed will face the 9th seed in a play-in game to make the playoffs. This is a must-win for San Antonio with only two games remaining.
The Spurs have handled this pressure well in going 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS to put themselves in this position. And they are much healthier than the Houston Rockets, who are almost certainly locked into the 4th seed in the West.
The Rockets will be without both James Harden and Eric Gordon tonight, and they could be without Russell Westbrook, who is dealing with a quad injury. Danuel House is also questionable with a toe injury. They just want to be healthy going into the playoffs, so they’d be wise to play it safe.
The Spurs are 38-12 ATS when revenging a road loss over the last two seasons. The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the Spurs Tuesday.
|08-10-20||Nuggets +5 v. Lakers||Top||121-124||Win||100||8 h 24 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +5
The Los Angeles Lakers are already locked into the No. 1 seed in the West with nothing to play for. It has shown as the Lakers are 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS since the restart. They’ve lost their last three games by a combined 40 points.
The Denver Nuggets still have something to play for as they are closing in on the No. 2 seed in the West, just one game behind the Clippers. They have played well in going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. And the overall depth of their team helps them tremendously in this restart as they’ve been able to overcome some injuries.
The Lakers are 1-10 ATS when playing their 4th road games in 7 days over the last two seasons. Denver is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 Monday games. Bet the Nuggets Monday.
|08-10-20||Pacers v. Heat -3.5||92-114||Win||100||8 h 39 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -3.5
The Miami Heat are expected to get back both Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic tonight. They still have a lot to play for in terms of playoff positioning and will be going hard for a win against the Indiana Pacers Monday.
These injuries have cost Miami in their last two games with losses to Milwaukee and Phoenix. Look for them to come back highly motivated for a victory. This is the only game they’ve been favored in since their 125-105 win over Denver in their opening game of the restart. They have played an absolutely brutal schedule, but it lightens up here against Indiana, a team they should handle.
The Heat have won both meetings with he Pacers this season. Miami is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games following a loss. Take the Heat Monday.
|08-09-20||76ers v. Blazers -2.5||121-124||Win||100||11 h 40 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5
The Portland Trail Blazers need to bounce back from a tough loss to the Clippers yesterday if they want to make the playoffs. This game means a lot more to them than it does the Philadelphia 76ers.
The 76ers will be without Ben Simmons tonight, and they certainly aren’t nearly as good of a team without him. Philadelphia is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win. Portland is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games overall. The Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss. Take the Blazers Sunday.
|08-08-20||Suns -1.5 v. Heat||119-112||Win||100||9 h 37 m||Show|
15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Phoenix Suns -1.5
The Phoenix Suns are doing everything in their power to make the playoffs. They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS since the restart with three outright victories. And now I expect them to take down the Miami Heat today.
While the Suns are healthy, the Heat have several injury concerns right now. Both Jimmy Butler and Kendrick Nunn will sit out this game, and Goran Dragic is questionable. The Suns are simply the better team right now given their current form and these injuries for the Heat.
Phoenix is 9-1 ATS when playing its 3rd road game in 5 days this season. The Suns are 8-0 ATS in road games after. Having won four or five of their last six games over the last two seasons. Take the Suns Saturday.
|08-08-20||Clippers v. Blazers -2.5||Top||122-117||Loss||-110||3 h 39 m||Show|
20* Clippers/Blazers TNT Early ANNIHILATOR on Portland -2.5
The Portland Trail Blazers have gotten healthy due to the break in action and are fully taking advantage. They are on track to make the playoffs after opening 3-1 SU & 3-0-1 ATS since the restart.
Now they face a Los Angeles Clippers team that is basically already locked into the No. 2 or No. 3 seed. The Clippers would actually like to see the Blazers get the 8th seed to make the 1st-round matchup for the Lakers the most difficult. They know the Blazers would be their toughest opponent given that they made the Western Conference Finals last year when healthy.
That could be why the Clippers are deciding to rest Kawhi Leonard today. Both Patrick Beverly and Montrezl Harrell are out for Los Angeles as well. The Blazers are 10-1 ATS when revenging a blowout road loss by 20 points or more over the lsat three seasons. Bet the Blazers Saturday.
|08-07-20||Kings -4.5 v. Nets||Top||106-119||Loss||-110||6 h 1 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -4.5
The Sacramento Kings finally got a taste of victory to remain alive in the Western Conference playoff race. They beat the Pelicans 140-125 outright as 4-point dogs. Look for them to build on that momentum and take down the Brooklyn Nets tonight.
The Nets are going to make the playoffs, it’s just whether they will be the 7th or 8th seed. They don’t have much to play for, and that showed in their 115-149 loss to the Celtics last time out. They are short-handed right now with all of their injuries, and this will be their 3rd game in 4 days.
The Kings love to push the tempo and will challenge Brooklyn’s conditioning tonight. I expect the Kings to break them. Sacramento is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games playing on zero rest. The Kings are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Kings Friday.
|08-06-20||Blazers -4 v. Nuggets||Top||125-115||Win||100||9 h 40 m||Show|
20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -4
The Portland Trail Blazers have a lot to play for right now and they are playing like it. They have opened 2-1 SU & 2-0-1 ATS since the restart. I’ll back them again here as short favorites over the Denver Nuggets.
The Nuggets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. They still have a lot of injury questions with Jamal Murray, Gary Harris and Will Barton all questionable to play tonight. Given the situation, don’t be surprised if they play it cautiously.
Denver is 7-17 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season. The Nuggets are 19-37 ATS after scoring 120 points or more over the last three years. Portland is 13-3 ATS when revenging a road loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons. The Blazers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Blazers Thursday.
|08-06-20||Pacers v. Suns +125||99-114||Win||125||5 h 41 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Phoenix Suns ML +125
The Phoenix Suns have played as well as anyone since the restart. They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with upset victories over both the Mavericks and Clippers, two of the best teams in the Western Conference. Now they’ll take down the Indiana Pacers tonight as they continue their push to try and make the 8th seed in the West.
The Pacers have opened 3-0 as well, but against a much softer schedule. Their only good win was a huge comeback against Philadelphia. The other two wins were against Washington and Orlando. I still question how good this team is going to be moving forward without both Domantas Sabonis and Jeremy Lamb. Plus, Malcolm Brogdon is questionable tonight.
Plays on underdogs (Phoenix) - revenging a loss by 10 points or more, off an upset win over a division opponent as an underdog of 6 points or more are 66-34 (66%) ATS since 1996.
Phoenix is 8-1 ATS in road games after scoring 115 points or more this season. The Suns are 8-1 ATS when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days this year. Phoenix is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. Take the Suns on the Money Line Thursday.
|08-05-20||Nuggets v. Spurs +3.5||Top||132-126||Loss||-110||6 h 56 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +3.5
The San Antonio Spurs trail the Memphis Grizzlies by two games for the 8th seed in the West. They are also 0.5 games back of the Blazers for the 9th seed, and the 8th will square off against the 9th to make the playoffs.
It’s safe to say the Spurs are highly motivated for wins right now. They are clearly playing with a sense of urgency as they are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS since the restart with upset wins over Sacramento and Memphis, as well as a 2-point loss to Philadelphia as 7-point dogs on the 2nd of a back-to-back.
The Nuggets are only playing for playoff positioning. They lost by 20 to Miami and beat Oklahoma City in overtime. They have some injuries they are dealing with right now with both Will Barton and Garry Harris out, and Jamal Murray is questionable tonight. All three have missed their first two games as the Nuggets are playing it cautiously with them.
San Antonio is 48-22 ATS when revenging a loss over the last two seasons. The Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win. The Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog. Bet the Spurs Wednesday.
|08-04-20||Magic -1.5 v. Pacers||109-120||Loss||-105||7 h 58 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -1.5
Few teams have been more impressive than the Orlando Magic since the restart. They have put together two double-digit victories over Brooklyn and Sacramento, two other teams fighting for their playoff lives.
The Indians Pacers have also been impressive with an upset win over Philadelphia in comeback fashion and an 11-point win over Washington. But the Pacers are not healthy right now as they are missing Domantas Sabonis and Jeremy Lamb, plus Victor Oladipo is questionable with a knee injury.
The Magic are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Orlando is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a win. The Pacers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight. Indiana is 0-5 ATS in its last five games playing on zero rest. Take the Magic Tuesday.
|08-04-20||Suns +9 v. Clippers||Top||117-115||Win||100||5 h 58 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +9
The Phoenix Suns are making their run at the 8th seed in the West. They have opened 2-0 since the restart with a blowout win over Washington and an upset win over Dallas. Now I expect them to give the Los Angeles Clippers a run for their money tonight.
The Suns are almost fully healthy now and playing up to their potential. The Clippers are still missing some key pieces in Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell. They will have a hard time putting away the Suns by double-digits, which is what it would take to cover this massive spread tonight.
Phoenix is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games when playing its 3rd road game in 5 days. The Suns are 11-3 ATS in road games when revenging a home loss this season. The Clippers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a win by more than 10 points. Bet the Suns Tuesday.
|08-03-20||Raptors v. Heat +3.5||Top||107-103||Loss||-102||2 h 5 m||Show|
20* Raptors/Heat NBA TV Early ANNIHILATOR on Miami +3.5
The mindset of the Miami Heat for this restart is perfect. Erik Spoelstra has said all the right things, and his team delivered with a 125-105 win over the Denver Nuggets in their first game back. Now I expect them to take down the Toronto Raptors.
The Raptors now essentially have the No. 2 seed locked up in the East after taking down the Los Angeles Lakers in their opener. They are 3.5 games ahead of the Celtics with seven games to play. And I think this is certainly a bit of a letdown spot off such a huge win over the Lakers.
Miami is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against Toronto this season. The Heat are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win. Toronto is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games following a win by more than 10 points. Bet the Heat Monday.
|08-02-20||Spurs +4.5 v. Grizzlies||Top||108-106||Win||100||5 h 25 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +4.5
The San Antonio Spurs picked up a huge 129-120 upset win over the Kings as 3.5-point underdogs in their opener. Now this is their most important game of the restart facing off against the Memphis Grizzlies, who are the No. 8 seed in the West and the team they are trying to beat out for that final playoff spot.
The Spurs are missing some important players in this restart, but they clearly showed they have enough to be competitive. They shot 53% as a team and 44% from 3-point range against the Kings. Five players scored in double figures, including DeRozan (27), White (26) and Gay (19).
The Grizzlies are a young team that may not handle the pressure of trying to make the playoffs well at all. They blew a 4th quarter lead to the Blazers and lost in overtime in their first game back from the restart. And I don’t believe they should be 4.5-point favorites here given that the Spurs simply need this game more.
San Antonio is 32-11 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points over the last two seasons. Bet the Spurs Sunday.
|08-01-20||Heat +100 v. Nuggets||Top||125-105||Win||100||4 h 36 m||Show|
20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat ML +100
The Miami Heat are at full strength coming into the restart. The same cannot be said for the Denver Nuggets, who are going to be without Garry Harris, and they could be without both Jamal Murray and Will Barton, who are questionable. And I just love what I’m hearing from Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra.
“Our guys are competitors. They love this,” Spoelstra said. “They’re really enjoying this environment, having an opportunity to feel normal and get in between those four lines and compete. We’re excited about our team. We’ve had three really good weeks of practice, guys are ready.”
The Heat aren’t using these eight games to find a favorable matchup. They’re going to play the games and find out where they stand at the end.
“I don’t even need to explain it, we’re not going to lose games or play different to try to line up an opponent. That’s just not our language,” Spoelstra said. “We’re not going to Disney to waste each other’s times. We’re there for a reason. Competition, like I said, brings out a different quality in this group, individually and collectively. We’ll treat those games with great respect.” Bet the Heat on the Money Line Saturday.
|07-31-20||Celtics +5 v. Bucks||112-119||Loss||-110||7 h 41 m||Show|
15* Celtics/Bucks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Boston +5
The Milwaukee Bucks have the No. 1 seed in the East locked up. They are going to find it hard to be motivated until the playoffs get here. We saw that with their 103-124 setback against New Orleans in Monday’s scrimmage. And making matters worse is they will be without both Eric Bledsoe and Pat Connaughton, who both contracted COVID-19.
Boston is fighting for seeding and could get up to the No. 2 seed in the East as they trail the Raptors by three games. They are also just 2.5 games ahead of the Heat for 4th place. They for sure want either the No. 2 or No. 3 seed so they can avoid Milwaukee until the Eastern Conference Finals.
While the Bucks will be missing some key players, the Celtics come back fully healthy and ready to go. They have Kemba Walker (21.2 PPG), Jayson Tatum (23.6 PPG, 7.1 RPG), Jaylen Brown (20.4 PPG), Gordon Hayward (17.3 PPG) and Marcus Smart (13.5 PPG) all healthy and averaging double-digit points. Take the Celtics Friday.