20* Bills/Jets ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 41

It's going to be very windy Monday night in New York with 10-20 MPH winds throughout the game.  Wind is the biggest factor in preventing points, and these are already two dead nuts UNDER teams as currently constructed.

The Jets have yet another Top 5 defense this season.  They rank 6th in scoring defense at 17.0 points per game, 2nd in total defense at 255.8 yards per game and 1st at 4.5 yards per play allowed.  They are nearly back to full strength defensively as LB C.J. Mosely is back this week and NB Michael Carter II is questionable.

The Bills have slipped a little defensively this season ranking 12th in the NFL allowing 21.2 points per game.  But injuries and a tough schedule are a big reason for that slippage as they have had to face the Texans, Ravens, Jaguars, Dolphins and Cardinals.  This may be the worst offense they have faced yet in the Jets.

The Bills have LB Terrel Bernard, NB Taron Johnson and SS Taylor Rapp back in the lineup after all three missed games earlier.  They'll be up against a poor Jets offense that ranks 25th in scoring at 18.6 points per game, 27th in total offense at 286.6 yards per game and 27th at 4.7 yards per play.

The problem for the Bills this season is a lack of playmakers on offense.  They rank 22nd in the NFL at 299.8 yards per game.  After managing just 10 points against the Ravens two weeks ago, the Bills were fortunate to get to 20 points against the Texans last week considering they were held to 276 total yards and 16 first downs.  Josh Allen had the worst game of his career completing just 9-of-30 (30%) of his pass attempts for 131 yards.

Allen was without his best receiver in Khalil Shakir last week, and he didn't practice Friday and may be out again with an ankle injury.  Now leading rusher James Cook has a toe injury and didn't practice Friday as well.  WR Mack Hollins and WR Curtis Samuel are banged up, and QB Allen is dealing with ankle and hand injuries and hasn't looked the same the last two weeks.

The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with 38 or fewer combined points in all five.  The UNDER is 17-2-1 in the last 20 Monday Night Football games when the home team is listed as the underdog.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Falcons/Panthers OVER 47.5

The Carolina Panthers are a dead nuts OVER team with Andy Dalton at quarterback.  The OVER is 3-0 in Dalton's three starts this season with 58, 58 and 46 combined points.  He makes their offense respectable, and he is forced to try to win shootouts every week because the Panthers have arguably the worst defense in the NFL.

The Panthers rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 33.0 points per game allowed, 28th in total defense at 371.2 yards per game and 26th at 6.0 yards per play.  Injuries have absolutely decimated their defense as they are without DE Derrick Brown, LB Shaq Thompson, LB Jadeveon Clowney and LB Josey Jewell among others.  They have nine defenders on the IR already.

Now they must try and tame a hot Atlanta offense that ranks 7th in the NFL at 6.2 yards per play.  Kirk Cousins is coming off one of his best games of his career with 509 passing yards and 4 TD in a 36-30 win over the Bucs last week.  The Falcons will be able to name their number against this Carolina defense, and Dalton and company will be forced to go up-tempo in the 2H to try and keep pace.  Carolina does a good job of pass blocking up front, and Atlanta has one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL, so Dalton should have plenty of success.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Lions/Cowboys NFC No-Brainer on Detroit -3

The Detroit Lions absolute hate the Dallas Cowboys.  They lost to them in the playoffs on a phantom penalty a few years ago.  They lost on another bogus penalty last year getting their 2-point conversion called back in a 20-19 defeat.  They have now lost six straight to the Cowboys.  This is the week they say enough is enough.

Normally I don't like backing teams coming out of their bye week who went into their bye week fat and happy like the Lions did.  They beat the Seahawks 42-29 to improve to 3-1 on the season.  But they aren't fat and happy because they have revenge in mind against the Cowboys, plus they are now trailing the 5-0 Minnesota Vikings within the division.  The Lions will be all business this week.

But this is as much a fade of the Cowboys as anything.  Dallas has been ravaged by injuries as they are missing four key defensive linemen including Parsons and Lawrence.  The Steelers weren't able to take advantage last week, but the Lions will be able to.  They have one of the best offensive lines and thus one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL.

The Lions rank 6th in the NFL in rushing at 151.2 yards per game and will be up against a Cowboys defense that ranks 24th at stopping the run.  The Cowboys are 0-2 in their two home games this season losing 44-19 to the Saints and 28-25 to the Ravens in a game the Ravens led by 22 at one point.  The Ravens rushed for 274 yards on the Cowboys while the Saints rushed for 190.  And that was before all these injuries started to hit this Cowboys defense.

This is a very tough spot for the Cowboys.  They return home from Pittsburgh after playing on Sunday Night Football and having their game delayed by lightning to boot.  It didn't get over until around midnight eastern, meaning the Cowboys didn't get back home until early Monday morning.  They have a bye on deck next week and may play it smart and not rush anyone back from injury as a result.  The Lions will be the fresher team playing with a sense of urgency this week.  Bet the Lions Sunday.

15* Chargers/Broncos AFC West ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -2.5

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Chargers this week.  They are coming off their bye week, and bye weeks are much more beneficial to first-year head coaches like Jim Harbaugh.  The bye couldn't have come at a better time for the Chargers, who were extremely banged up going into their bye and needed the rest to get some key players healthy.

Reinforcements are on the way now.  Both starting tackles in Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater are expected to return this week.  QB Justin Herbert needed those two weeks to get his ankle healed up and has no injury designation now.  They are fully healthy on offense, plus SS Derwin James returns and LB Joey Bosa will likely be back as well.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Broncos, who are coming off three straight misleading wins since their 0-2 start.  They caught the Bucs in a letdown spot after getting playoff revenge on the Lions the previous week and upset them 26-7.  Two weeks ago they beat the Jets 10-9 on the road despite managing just 176 total yards on offense.  Last week, they beat the Raiders 34-18 despite getting outgained 330 to 289 by Las Vegas.  The Raiders were going in to take a 17-3 lead but threw a 100-yard pick-6 that changed the game.

Injuries are mounting for the Broncos now.  They will be without two starting offensive linemen in C Luke Wattenberg and RT Alex Palczewski, and two other offensive linemen are already on the IR.  WR Josh Reynolds is out as well.  This Denver offense may be the worst in the entire NFL now.  They rank 28th in total offense at 270.6 yards per game and 30th at 4.6 yards per play.  They'll be up against a Chargers defense that ranks 5th at 282.5 yards per game, 6th at 5.2 yards per play and 1st in scoring at 12.5 points per game allowed.

The Chargers fit into a great system, and road favorites off a bye week have been gold for years to boot.  Bye teams coming off a loss against a non-bye team that is coming off a win, when the team off a bye is not more than a 3-point underdog are 35-6 ATS in the last 41 tries.  Favorites or short dogs off a loss off a bye are a great bet, and it makes sense because they are motivated and rested.  Bet the Chargers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Line Mistake on Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML -140

I released the Bucs on the Money Line as soon as I found out Derek Carr would be out for the Saints.  I already loved the spot for the Bucs after playing last Thursday while the Saints played on Monday, giving the Bucs a 4-day rest advantage.

This play has just gotten stronger with all the injuries the Saints are dealing with right now.  They aren't the same team that opened 2-0 with blowout wins over the Panthers and Cowboys.  Injuries have really decimated this team and are the biggest reason for their 0-3 record since.

Not only are the Saints without Carr, but they are without C Erik McCoy and RG Cesar Ruiz.  Both backup centers are either out or questionable as well.  Defensively, the Saints are without LB Pete Werner and S Will Harris as well.  They just allowed 460 total yards to the Chiefs, who were missing key weapons and still did whatever they wanted offensively Monday night.

The Bucs rank 10th in the NFL scoring 25.4 points per game.  They are pretty healthy on offense, and on defense they are likely to get two key pieces back this week in DE Calijah Kancey and S Antoine Winfield.  There's a good chance they get back to full strength here defensively, which hasn't been the case the last few weeks.

The Bucs are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four trips to New Orleans, including a 26-9 victory last week.  I just don't think rookie QB Spencer Rattler has what it takes to win in his first start.  The Saints are also without TE Taysom Hill, who brings an added dimension to their offense that they have been missing the last three weeks.  Todd Bowles should have a field day calling defense against Rattler and keeping him off balance while committing multiple turnovers.  Bet the Bucs on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Tennessee Titans ML -115

The Indianapolis Colts may have the worst defense in the NFL with all their injuries right now.  They just gave up 37 points and 497 total yards to what was a previously dead Jaguars offense last week.  They now rank 32nd in total defense allowing 419.2 yards per game and 30th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are without three defensive linemen including DeForest Buckner, they are without their best CB in JuJu Brents and they are without another linebacker.

The Titans are coming off their bye week and in line for their best offensive output of the season.  Bye weeks are very beneficial to first-year head coaches like Brian Callahan.  He gets Will Levis back from injury this week, and Levis will look like Montana up against this Indianapolis defense.  The Titans should be able to name their number against this Colts stop unit.

The Colts have a boom or bust offense, and I believe they are worse off with Anthony Richardson than Joe Flacco.  They are expected to start Richardson this week.  They will be without star RB Jonathan Taylor, and their top two receivers in Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs are both questionable.  Injuries have really decimated the Colts in the early going.

The Titans are fully healthy coming out of their bye and they get back their best defensive player in DE Jeffrey Simmons, who is one of the most underrated defenders in the entire NFL.  Defense has been a bright spot for the Titans, who rank 1st in the NFL at 243.8 yards per game allowed and 2nd at 4.6 yards per play.  They upgraded their defense big time, and I expect they'll get multiple turnovers in this game to change the game to their favor.  Bet the Titans on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Commanders +7

What more do the Washington Commanders have to do to get some respect? They clearly aren't getting any this week as 7-point road underdogs to the Baltimore Ravens and we'll take advantage once again.

The Commanders are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat the Giants 21-18 on seven field goals and never punted.  The beat the Bengals 38-33 on the road and never punted.  They beat the Cardinals 42-14 on the road as 3.5-point dogs.  And last week they crushed the Browns 34-13 at home as 3-point favorites.

Jayden Daniels is on the best rookies in recent memory, completing 77.1% of his passes for 1,135 yards and 4 TD with only 2 INT, while also rushing for 300 yards and 4 TD while averaging 5.3 per carry.  He is making all the right decisions, and Kliff Kingsbury is proving his chops as an offensive coordinator in this league.

While the offense is getting all the hype, the improvement of Dan Quinn's defense has been impressive the last two weeks.  They held the Cardinals to just 14 points and the Browns to just 13 points in consecutive weeks.  I don't expect them to stop the Ravens, but I expect them to get enough stops to keep Daniels and company in the game for four quarters.

This is a massive letdown spot for the Ravens. They fought back from three double-digit deficits in the 2H to beat the Bengals 41-38 (OT) on the road last week.  They are a tired team, while the Commanders should be fresh off two straight blowout wins.  The Commanders are as healthy as any team in the NFL right now to boot.

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens tend to have letdowns in these spots when they are favored by more than 3 points.  In fact, Jackson is 11-21 ATS as a home favorite of -3.5 or higher in his career.  We saw them lose outright as 8.5-point favorites to the Raiders earlier this season.  Bet the Commanders Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Commanders/Ravens OVER 51.5

Jayden Daniels is on the best rookies in recent memory, completing 77.1% of his passes for 1,135 yards and 4 TD with only 2 INT, while also rushing for 300 yards and 4 TD while averaging 5.3 per carry.  He is making all the right decisions, and Kliff Kingsbury is proving his chops as an offensive coordinator in this league.

Daniels leads a Washington offense that ranks 1st in scoring at 31.0 points per game, 4th in total offense at 392.6 yards per game and 3rd at 6.5 yards per play.  The Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team because they have a poor defense, allowing 6.0 yards per play which ranks 27th in the NFL.

The Baltimore Ravens have an elite offense as well this season ranking 2nd in scoring at 29.4 points per game, 1st in total offense at 447.6 yards per game and 1st at 6.9 yards per play.  The Ravens rank 25th in the NFL allowing 6.0 yards per play defensively.  Both offenses should have their way Sunday in what will likely be the biggest shootout of the week.  

The Ravens are 4-1 OVER in all games this season and the Commanders are 4-1 OVER in all games this season as well.  Both are dead nuts OVER teams.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Colts/Titans OVER 42.5

The Indianapolis Colts may have the worst defense in the NFL with all their injuries right now.  They just gave up 37 points and 497 total yards to what was a previously dead Jaguars offense last week.  They now rank 32nd in total defense allowing 419.2 yards per game and 30th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are without three defensive linemen including DeForest Buckner, they are without their best CB in JuJu Brents and they are without another linebacker.

The Titans are coming off their bye week and in line for their best offensive output of the season.  Bye weeks are very beneficial to first-year head coaches like Brian Callahan.  He gets Will Levis back from injury this week, and Levis will look like Montana up against this Indianapolis defense.  The Titans should be able to name their number against this Colts stop unit.

Shane Steichen is an offensive-minded head coach for the Colts and he is a dead nuts OVER coach because he likes to push the tempo and doesn't worry about defense.  This Indianapolis offense ranks 4th in the NFL averaging 6.4 yards per play.  They should do enough against the Titans to push this one up and OVER the total.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Jaguars/Bears NFL London No-Brainer on OVER 44

The Chicago Bears picked up the tempo last week with a season-high 36% of their snaps coming out of no-huddle.  They now have the 2nd-highest no-huddle rate in the NFL and it is working as Caleb Williams has looking much more comfortable the last three weeks.

Williams threw for 363 yards against the Colts three weeks ago.  He led the Bears to 24 points against the Rams two weeks ago, and last week he led the Bears to a season-high 36 points and 424 total yards.

Of course, the Colts, Rams and Panthers have three of the worst defenses in the NFL.  But now Williams gets another soft defense in the Jaguars, who rank 30th in scoring defense at 28.6 points per game allowed, 31st in total defense at 393.4 yards per game and 31st at 6.2 yards per play allowed.  They allow points on 50% of their drives and have allowed the most 20-plus yard plays in the NFL this season.

The Jaguars are going more man-to-man this season and it's not working as they do not have the personnel to do it, especially in the secondary.  They are missing their best cover corner in Tyson Campbell due to injury, which is a big part of the problem.  I expect Williams to have a field day against a Jacksonville defense that allowed 34 points to the Colts and 47 to the Bills.

The Jaguars had their best offensive output of the season last week with 37 points and 497 total yards against the Colts.  Reinforcements are on the way as both TE Evan Engram and WR Gabe Davis are expected to return from injury this week.  Now the Jaguars are at full strength on offense.

They face a Chicago defense that has been good this season, but one that is dealing with a ton of injuries heading into London.  SS Jaquan Brisker is out, CB Tyrique Stevenson is doubtful, and his backup Terell Smith is out.  Trevor Lawrence should be able to take advantage of this Chicago secondary with all the key pieces they will be missing.  This total of 44 is too low for this game Sunday morning.  Bet the OVER in London.

20* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Hawaii +21.5

The Boise State Broncos are getting a lot of hype right now with a 4-1 start and their lone loss coming to Oregon.  RB Ashton Jeanty is now the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy as well.  With all this hype comes expectations that are very difficult to live up to, and I'll play against them and side with the value on home underdog Hawaii catching more than three touchdowns as a result.

This is a tough spot for Boise State playing for a 4th consecutive week and now having to travel the the island.  Their last three games were at home, and now they have to go on the road where they barely beat Georgia Southern 56-45 and lost to Oregon in their other two road games.

Hawaii is 2-1 at home this season with a 3-point loss to UCLA in their lone defeat.  The Warriors are the much fresher team after having a bye two weeks ago before losing 27-24 at San Diego State last week.  QB Brayden Schager is coming off his two best games of the season throwing for 374 yards and 4 TD in a 36-7 win over Northern Iowa at home and throwing for 272 yards and 3 TD in that loss to San Diego State last week.

Hawaii actually has the better defense in this game.  The Warriors are only allowing 309.4 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.  They have been very good against the run, allowing 120.6 rushing yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry.  That will be key in trying to stop Jeanty and this Boise State rushing attack.

Boise State's defense leaves a lot to be desired and is the clear weakness of the team.  The Broncos allow 402.6 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play.  They have been horrible against the pass, allowing 278.8 passing yards per game and 8.2 yards per attempt.  That makes this a great matchup for the Warriors with their ability to throw the ball on offense and stop the run on defense.  They will never be out of this game.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on West Virginia +3

This is a battle for first place in the Big 12 as the 2-0 Iowa State Cyclones visit the 2-0 West Virginia Mountaineers.  I think the wrong team is favored here.  This is going to be a very hostile atmosphere at night for an 8:00 EST start time, and the Mountaineers are going with their sweet black coal rush jerseys.

Iowa State has benefited from a soft schedule during its 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS start this season.  The five wins have come against North Dakota, Arkansas State, Houston, Baylor and Iowa.  They have really faced an easy schedule of opposing offenses, and this will be by far their toughest defensive test of the season against this high-octane WVU offense.  The Mountaineers average 6.4 yards pre play, 5.3 yards per rush and 8.3 yards per pass attempt which are all elite numbers.

Iowa State was life and death with Baylor at home last week trailing 21-19 early in the 3rd quarter.  The Cyclones needed a big finish to pull away.  It cost them a lot of injuries on defense as they were down to two starters on defense at one point in the 2H last week.  And these defensive injuries the Cyclones are dealing with aren't getting factored into the spread enough this week.

While the Cyclones will be playing for a 4th consecutive week, the Mountaineers just had a bye two weeks ago before crushing Oklahoma State 38-14 on the road last week.  They made easy work of the Cowboys outgaining them 558 to 225 for the game, or by 333 total yards.  They were able to coast in the 2H after jumping out to a 31-7 halftime lead, and they will still be fresh for this game Saturday as a result.

Home-field advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  West Virginia has played the much tougher schedule and the losses to Pitt and Penn State don't look so bad now considering those two teams are a combined 10-0.  I like the Mountaineers to pull off the upset at home Saturday night.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* Ole Miss/LSU ABC ANNIHILATOR on LSU +3.5

I love the spot for the LSU Tigers this week.  They return from their bye, getting two full weeks to rest and prepare to beat the Ole Miss Rebels.  This will also be a night game in Baton Rouge, and there's arguably no bigger home-field advantage in all of college football than a night game in Baton Rouge.

Ole Miss is a tired team playing for a 7th consecutive week.  The Rebels are coming off two physical games against Kentucky and South Carolina the last two weeks.  After getting upset 20-17 by Kentucky as 15.5-point home favorites, they rebounded nicely with a 27-3 win at South Carolina last week.

But that was a misleading win against South Carolina.  They only outgained the Gamecocks by 112 yards.  Their offense pretty much died in the second half after losing star receiver Tre Harris to injury.  They scored just 3 points after intermission.  Harris means everything to their offense as he leads the nation with 52 receptions for 885 yards and 5 TD.  He is doubtful to be back this week, making LSU's task defensively to stop this Ole Miss offense much easier.

LSU is a perfect 7-0 SU in the last seven meetings in Baton Rouge and at least 5-0 ATS in the last five home meetings in this series.  I fully expect the Tigers to win this game outright given their rest and preparation advantages coming in.  Brian Kelly is 15-2 SU & 12-5 ATS in his last 17 home games off a bye.  Bet LSU Saturday.

15* Florida/Tennessee ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Florida +14.5

The Florida Gators have been impressive since a 41-17 loss to Miami in the opener.  That loss has kept the Gators undervalued since, and they have responded by going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  The lone loss came to Texas A&M by a final of 33-20, and that loss doesn't look so bad now with A&M blowing out Missouri last week.

The Gators won 45-28 at Mississippi State as 7-point favorites following the loss to A&M.  They had a bye the next week, then returned last week and beat UCF 24-13 as 1-point home underdogs.  That win was mighty impressive from a defensive standpoint as UCF came into that game leading the country in rushing.  Florida held UCF to 108 rushing yards on 40 carries and 273 total yards overall.

Tennessee has been overvalued since a 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start against a very soft schedule of Chattanooga, NC State, Kent State and Oklahoma.  The 25-15 win over Oklahoma was far from impressive considering the Sooners were playing with their backup QB and missing almost all of their wide receivers due to injury.  They only managed 345 total yards against Oklahoma's defense.

Last week, Tennessee was upset 19-14 at Arkansas as 14-point favorites.  The Razorbacks outgained the Vols 434 to 334, or by 100 total yards, so there was nothing fluky about it.  That's the second straight game Tennessee's offense has been held in check by a respectable defense, and with the way this Florida defense is trending, I think the Gators can hold them in check as well.  They will stop the run and force the Vols to try and beat them through the air.

Florida hasn't lost by more than 14 points to Tennessee since 1992 which was 32 meetings ago.  That makes for a 31-0 system backing the Gators pertaining to this 14.5-point spread.  The Gators are 17-2 SU in the last 19 meetings.  Bet Florida Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UTSA/Rice OVER 50.5

UTSA is a dead nuts OVER team that plays fast and plays zero defense.  The Roadrunners rank 9th in tempo with 22.6 seconds in between snaps.  They rank 110th in scoring defense allowing 31.6 points per game, and they have benefitted from getting to play Holy Cross and Kennesaw State.

UTSA's offense got going last time out with 456 total yards against a pretty good East Carolina defense after scoring 45 points on Holy Cross.  This is a Rice defense that has faced an easy schedule of opposing offenses, but still allowed 34 points to Sam Houston State, 33 to Houston and 37 to Army.

Rice's offense has been held in check this season due to playing a tough schedule of opposing defenses.  They finally got a reprieve last time out and put up 463 total yards against Charlotte with 209 rushing and 254 passing.  I like Rice QB EJ Warner, who meant everything to Temple last year, and he should have a big game against this UTSA defense.  Rice also plays faster than average ranking 59th in tempo at 26.1 seconds in between snaps.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Mississippi State +34

The Georgia Bulldogs are just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games overall since the start of last season.  They are a team that gets a lot of hype for what they did in previous seasons winning the national title, and with that hype comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are very difficult to live up to.

Georgia is 1-4 ATS this season and has no business being a 34-point favorite against Mississippi State this week.  This is the ultimate sandwich spot coming off three straight tough SEC games against Kentucky, Alabama and Auburn and with an even bigger showdown with Texas on deck on the road next week.  They won't be concerned with Mississippi State this week at all.

That's going to make it very difficult to cover this 34-point spread.  The Bulldogs want to just get in and get out with a win and try and keep everyone healthy for that game against Texas considering injuries and suspensions have been a big part of Georgia's early struggles this season.

I like the spot for Mississippi State.  The Bulldogs are come off their bye week, and bye weeks are much more beneficial to first-year head coaches like Jeff Lebby.  He will get the most out of this extra week with his new team.  I also like what I saw from the Bulldogs going into their bye week as they only lost 35-13 at Texas as 37-point underdogs.

Instead of playing at a break-neck pace like they had prior, they slowed things down with freshman QB Michael Van Buren running the offense.  He played well with 144 passing yards on 23 attempts.  I think Mississippi State will deploy the same strategy against Georgia, slowing the game down to try and make it competitive.  Van Buren is now 19 of 34 passing for 244 yards against Texas and Florida, which are two very good defenses.  He won't be phased by Georgia.

24 of the last 25 meetings between Georgia and Mississippi State were decided by 30 points or less, making for a 24-1 system backing the underdog in this one.  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

15* Arizona/BYU FOX ANNIHILATOR on BYU -3.5

The BYU Cougars are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season with upset road wins over SMU and Baylor, as well as an upset home win over Kansas State.  They should be more than 3.5-point home favorites against Arizona this week.

BYU had a bye last week, so the Cougars have had two full weeks to prepare for Arizona and to rest up and get healthy.  Provo is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and the Cougars will have an even bigger home-field advantage with fans excited about the fact that they are in the Top 25 and a Big 12 title contenter.

The spot is much worse for Arizona coming off a pair of physical games at Utah and at home against Texas Tech.  They are getting too much love for their win at Utah, which bogged down in the red zone and blew several scoring opportunities.  They lost 28-22 at home to Texas Tech last week.

These teams have a common opponent that shows BYU is by far the superior team.  Arizona lost 31-7 at Kansas State, while BYU crushed Kansas State 38-9 at home.  The Cougars have the much better defense in this one as well.  They allow just 15.8 points per game, 292.6 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play.  Arizona allows 23.6 points per game, 350.8 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play this season.  Bet BYU Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Virginia +7.5

The Louisville Cardinals have been through the gauntlet the last three weeks with three straight games that went down to the wire against SMU, Notre Dame and Georgia Tech.  I question how much they have left in the tank for Virginia this week.

The Cavaliers had a bye two weeks ago before returning to beat Boston College 24-14 as 1.5-point home favorites last week.  Virginia improved to 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS this season and has been an undervalued commodity.  They beat Coastal Carolina 43-24 as 3.5-point road favorites going into their bye, and they beat Wake Forest 31-30 on the road.

Even in their lone loss to Maryland it was a misleading 27-13 home loss.  They were only outgained by 21 yards in the game.  The Terrapins scored 20 unanswered points in the 2H and took advantage of a +4 turnover margin against Virginia.  I like the way the Cavaliers responded in their last two games, especially after falling behind 14-0 to Boston College last week to score the final 24 points of the game.  They have a lot of confidence now and feel like they are a legit ACC contender.

Virginia is 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six meetings with Louisville with only one loss by more than 7 points.  The spot really favors the home underdog Cavaliers who are the fresher team.  This line should be much closer to PK.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh -3

The Pittsburgh Panthers are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season.  They will eventually be overvalued, but this isn't the spot this week.  The Panthers have impressive wins over Cincinnati, West Virginia and North Carolina with two of those wins coming on the road.  They just had a bye two weeks ago so they will be fresh and ready to go this week.

But this is more of a play against California than it is a play on Pitt.  The Bears had ESPN's College Gameday on campus last week with the Miami Hurricanes coming to town.  They looked well on their way to an upset victory leading 35-10 in the 3rd quarter, but that's when it all went downhill.

The Bears blew that 25-point lead and lost 39-38 on a last-second TD by Miami, which scored the final 21 points of the game in the final 10 minutes to escape with yet another victory.  I just don't see how Cal gets back up off the mat after that loss.  It's the type of loss that beats a team twice.

Now the Bears have the long flight East to Pittsburgh after playing a late-night game that didn't get over until after midnight Pacific time.  They have a tired defense that was on the field for 38 minutes and 86 plays against Miami.  Now they must face a Pitt offense that runs the 4th-fastest tempo in the entire country.

Five-star QB and Alabama transfer Eli Holstein has thrived in this new up-tempo offense.  He is competing 65.5% of his passes for 1,567 yards with a 15-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 265 yards and 3 scores.  The Bears won't have the energy to try and defense this offense, and this one has blowout written all over it.  Bet Pittsburgh Saturday.

20* Big Ten TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Northwestern/Maryland OVER 45

Maryland is a dead nuts OVER team this season.  The Terrapins are 4-1 OVER in their five games with 51 or more combined points in four of the five.  That includes their 42-28 loss to Indiana last time out that saw 70 combined points.

The Terrapins boast an offense that puts up 451.4 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play including 304.8 passing yards per game, which ranks 17th in the country.  QB Billy Edwards has been better than expected, completing 72.3% of his passes for 1,444 yards with an 11-to-2 TD/INT ratio.  This is a poor Maryland defense that allowed 27 points to Michigan State, 20 to Villanova and 42 to Indiana.

Northwestern has taken a step back defensively this season and just found itself in a 41-24 shootout last week against Indiana that saw 65 combined points.  QB Lausch has taken over as starting QB and actually gives the Wildcats the threat of the pass.  He threw for 243 yards and 2 TD against a very good Indiana defense last week, while also rushing for 34 yards on 9 carries.

This has been an OVER series with the OVER going 3-1 in the last four meetings with 46 or more combined points in all four, and 55 or more in three of them.  Conditions look perfect for a shootout Friday night with no wind or rain in the forecast.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* 49ers/Seahawks NFC West No-Brainer on San Francisco -3

I like backing elite teams who are motivated.  That will be the case for the San Francisco 49ers Thursday night when they travel to face the Seattle Seahawks.  The 49ers sit at 2-3 on the season but should be 4-1 at worst and possibly 5-0.  If they had the record they deserved, they would be more than 3-point favorites here.

The 49ers absolutely blew two games in the 4th quarter to the Rams and Cardinals.  They led the Cardinals 23-10 at halftime last week and lost 24-23.  They led the Rams 24-14 in the final seven minutes and lost 27-24.  They also lost 23-17 to the Vikings on the road despite outgaining them.

Despite their 2-3 record, the 49ers are clearly still one of the best teams in the NFL when you dive into the numbers.  They rank 2nd in total offense at 407.4 yards per game and 2nd at 6.5 yards per play.  They rank 10th in total defense allowing 307.8 yards per game, so they are outgaining opponents by 100 yards per game.  They have also gotten healthier in recent weeks and are very healthy heading into this game with Seattle.

The Seahawks were overvalued after a 3-0 start against the weakest schedule in the league beating the Broncos, Patriots and Dolphins.  I successfully faded them the last two weeks backing the Lions -4 in a 42-29 win over the Seahawks and the Giants +7 in a 29-20 win over Seattle.  I am fading them again this week for many of the same reasons.

This Seattle defense is dealing with a ton of injuries, and their lack of talent and depth has really shown the last two weeks.  They allowed 42 points to the Lions as Jared Goff went a perfect 18-of-18 passing.  They allowed 29 points and 420 total yards to a Giants team last week that was missing WR Malik Nabers and RB Devin Singletary, arguably their two best playmakers on offense.

The Seahawks are without LB Nowsu, LB Onujiogu and FS Reed II.  LB Hall, DT Murhpy and CB Woolen all missed practice on Tuesday and are doubtful.  S Love is limited and will likely play.  Now the Seahawks are on a short week here and gassed defensively after being on the field for over 37 minutes against the Giants on Sunday.  They gave up 175 rushing yards against a Giants team that previously could not run the football.  

Now they must try to tackle the physical Jordan Mason, who has 536 rushing yards and 5.1 per carry through five games in Christian McCaffrey's absence.  The Seahawks got to face four poor offenses in five games and we saw what the Lions did to them scoring 42 points.  The 49ers are on the Lions' level offensively if not better.  I just don't see Seattle getting many stops in this game, and the 49ers will get enough stops to cover this short number.

The 49ers are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with all five wins coming by 8 points or more.  Bet the 49ers Thursday.

20* Saints/Chiefs ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 43.5

The Chiefs were already handcuffed offensively when it was announced that WR Hollywood Brown would miss the entire season due to shoulder surgery.  Now they lost their best weapon in WR Rashee Rice to a knee injury and he will not be available for Week 5.  They were already without RB Isaiah Pacheco, who was the heart and soul of the offense.

We saw this last year with the Chiefs limited by injuries offensively having to rely on their defense on their way to winning the Super Bowl.  But that was when they had Rice and Pacheco leading the way.  Now they are without both, and the Chiefs are going to have to rely on an aging Travis Kelce, a rookie in Xavier Worthy and several replacement-level receivers moving forward unless they make a trade.  They are relying on defense now more than ever.

This Kansas City defense has been dynamite in paving the way for a 4-0 start for the Chiefs.  They rank 9th allowing 18.0 points per game despite facing both the Bengals and Ravens, who have two of the best offenses in the NFL.  Now they should have their way with a New Orleans Saints offense that is banged up along the offensive line.  The strength of Kansas City's defense is their front seven, and they will make life very difficult for Drew Brees and company for four quarters in this one.

The Saints have a very good defense and it's what keeps them competitive every year under defensive-minded head coach, Dennis Allen.  The Saints rank 7th in scoring defense at 17.5 points per game.  Keep in mind that number would be even lower if not for two fluky non-offensive touchdowns by the Falcons last week with a tipped interception that was returned for a TD and a muffed punt that was recovered in the end zone for another TD.

Given the Saints having one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL without their best offensive lineman in C Erik McCoy, and the Chiefs being without all of their best weapons, this has the makings of a defensive slug fest Monday night.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Cowboys/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh ML -125

The Pittsburgh Steelers have one of the best defenses in the NFL while the Dallas Cowboys have one of the worst.  That's the biggest reason I am on the Steelers on the Money Line Sunday night as they host the Cowboys.

The Steelers rank 2nd in scoring defense at 13.2 points per game, 4th in total defense at 261.2 yards per game and 6th at 5.1 yards per play allowed.  The Cowboys rank 26th in scoring defense at 26.0 points per game, 26th in total defense at 355.2 yards per game and 23rd at 5.8 yards per play allowed.  The Cowboys are 13th in total offense at 330.8 yards per game while the Steelers are 18th at 317.8 yards per game, so there's not as big of a gap between these offenses as what is being perceived.

The Cowboys were already terrible defensively when they had their two best pass rushers in Micah Parsons and Dexter Lawrence healthy.  But now that's not even the case any more as the Cowboys lost both Lawrence and Parsons to injuries last week against the Giants.  Both will not play this week.  CB Calen Carson is questionable, and they were already without their best CB in DaRon Bland to the IR.  Things are getting worse before they get better for this Dallas defense.

We saw the Cowboys get shredded by a Ravens team that runs a similar read-option offense to the Steelers two weeks ago.  The Ravens rushed for 274 yards on them.  Justin Fields and company will be able to get whatever they want on the ground.  Fields is playing well, completing 70.6% of his passes with a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 145 yards and 3 scores through four games.  He threw for 312 yards and a TD in trying to lead the comeback against the Colts last week to prove he can do it when he has to throw it.

The Cowboys were fortunate to beat the lowly Giants 20-15 last week.  Daniel Jones didn't get much help from his receivers with several key drops that prevented points.  He went 29-of-40 passing for 281 yards against the Cowboys.  The Giants held this Dallas offense in check as well with just 293 total yards.  This is a one-dimensional Dallas offense that cannot run the football, which bodes well for the Steelers, who rank 8th in the NFL in pass defense allowing just 174.5 yards per game through the air.  This is a terrible matchup for the injury-ravaged Cowboys.  Mike Tomlin is 8-2 ATS in his last 10 games off a loss.  Bet the Steelers on the Money Line Sunday night.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Giants +6

This is a terrible spot for the Seattle Seahawks.  They just played the late game on Monday Night Football against the Detroit Lions.  Now they have to travel back to Seattle and play on a short week hosting the New York Giants Sunday afternoon.

Making matters worse is this is a sandwich spot for the Seahawks.  They have an even bigger game on deck against the 49ers on Thursday and some of their focus will be on that game, especially when it comes to handling all their injuries.  They won't be fully focused on the Giants this week, and as a result I think they are on upset alert.

This is a very favorable spot for the Giants, who played the Cowboys last Thursday.  So they have had a mini bye week coming into this one to get healthy and prepared to face the Seahawks.  Sitting at 1-3 on the season, the Giants are looking at this game as a must-win.  The Seahawks sit at 3-1 and alone in first place in the NFC West, so they aren't looking at this as a must-win.

The Seahawks are a fraudulent team that got off to a 3-0 start against the easiest schedule in the NFL.  They beat the Broncos and rookie QB Bo Nix 26-20 as 6.5-point home favorites in Week 1.  They needed OT to beat the Patriots 23-20 as 3-point road favorites in Week 2.  Then they had to fly all the way back to Seattle and took advantage of a short-handed Dolphins team in a 24-3 victory as 4-point favorites.  The Dolphins were starting Skyler Thompson at QB, and he got hurt and they were down to third-stringer Tim Boyle in the second half.

That's why I faded them last week and took the Lions -4.  It was a lot of travel for the Seahawks and they weren't as good as their 3-0 record.  That proved to be the case as the Lions beat them 42-29.  Jared Goff went a perfect 18-of-18 passing for 292 yards and two touchdowns against what is a really banged up, tired Seattle defense that is lacking depth.

Five starters are questionable heading into this one in DE Leonard Williams, LB Uchenna Nwosu, LB Jerome Baker, LB Boye Mafe and FS Julian Love.  FS Jerrick Reed II is out, NT Cameron Young is out and DE Byron Murphy II is questionable.  The Seahawks have a very poor offensive line, and the strength of the Giants is their defensive line, so they will make life tough on Geno Smith in this one.

I like what I've seen from Daniel Jones the last three weeks.  After a 28-6 loss to Minnesota in Week 1 which doesn't look as bad now with the Vikings sitting at 4-0 with wins over the Packers, 49ers and Texans since, the Giants have been much more competitive the last three weeks.  

They lost 21-18 at Washington only because they lost their FG kicker to injury prior to the game, and it cost them at least a shot at OT and likely a win.  They won 21-15 at Cleveland as 6.5-point dogs in Week 2 even after spotting the Browns a TD to start the game after a fumbled KO return.  They gave the Cowboys all they wanted last week in a 20-15 loss as 5.5-point home dogs, and drops by New York receivers were the culprit.  They held Dallas' high-powered offense to less than 300 total yards.

The Giants have historically been a much better road team than a home team over the last decade-plus, and that's the case again this season.  They were very competitive against the Commanders and Browns on the road and performed poorly against the Vikings and Cowboys at home.  The New York fans just aren't that gracious to this team at home, and sometimes it's just better for these players to get away from it by going on the road.

The Giants are extremely healthy compared to most teams at this point in the season.  Star WR Malik Nabers did suffer a concussion against the Cowboys last week, but the average time missed is 8 days for concussions, and since they played last Thursday they will have 10 days in between games.  He should be back, and he has made all the difference for this offense.  Nabers has 35 receptions for 386 yards and 3 TD through four games.  The Giants are good enough to give the Seahawks a run for their money considering the good spot for them and the awful spot for the home team.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Browns/Commanders OVER 44

The Washington Commanders delivered 16 straight scoring drives beginning from Week 1 through their first two drives of Week 4 against Arizona.  They have punted just once in the last three weeks.  They have three straight wins over the Giants, Bengals and Cardinals and they are much better than they get credit for.

Jayden Daniels has delivered more scoring drives (23) than incompletions (19) through his first four games.  Daniels set the NFL record with 82.1% completions through the first four weeks of the season.  He has thrown for 897 yards with a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.5 yards per attempt, and he has rushed for 218 yards and 4 scores to boot.  Daniels is making all the right decisions right now.

Cleveland had the worst scoring defense in the entire NFL on the road last season.  The Raiders had the worst rushing attack in the NFL heading into their game with Cleveland last week.  They promptly rushed for 152 yards and 5.2 per carry against Cleveland last week.  The Commanders are going to be able to run it up the middle on the Browns, and that is going to open the field for Daniels to continue to thrive.

No question this Cleveland offense hasn't looked good, and a lot of that has to do with offensive line injuries and missing TD David Njoku.  They could get some pieces back on the offensive line this week, plus Njoku is expected to return.  They should have their best offensive output of the season against a Washington defense that ranks 25th in scoring at 25.5 points per game, 27th in total defense at 357.0 yards per game and 31st at 6.4 yards per play allowed.  

Washington is a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  They are 3-1 OVER in all games this season with 56 or more combined points in the three overs.  They would be 4-0 OVER if not for the Giants losing their kicker in a game that would have been tied 21-21 at the end of regulation if the Giants kicked extra points on all three of their TD's.  I see Washington getting to at least 27 points and Cleveland getting to at least 20 in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. 

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Commanders -3

The Washington Commanders delivered 16 straight scoring drives beginning from Week 1 through their first two drives of Week 4 against Arizona.  They have punted just once in the last three weeks.  They have three straight wins over the Giants, Bengals and Cardinals and they are much better than they get credit for.

Jayden Daniels has delivered more scoring drives (23) than incompletions (19) through his first four games.  Daniels set the NFL record with 82.1% completions through the first four weeks of the season.  He has thrown for 897 yards with a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.5 yards per attempt, and he has rushed for 218 yards and 4 scores to boot.  Daniels is making all the right decisions right now.

The same cannot be said for Deshaun Watson and the Cleveland Browns.  They are 1-3 this season with their lone win coming against the only remaining winless team in the Jacksonville Jaguars.  They weren't able to beat a depleted Raiders team last week that was without their two best players in WR Davante Adamas and DE Maxx Crosby.  They lost 20-16 despite getting lucky fumble return TD on defense.

Watson has been abysmal.  He is averaging just 4.9 yards per attempt with a 4-to-3 TD/INT ratio.  Of course, it hurts that his offensive line is more banged up than any other offensive line in the league.  Seven offensive linemen are on the injury report as they have been without LT Jedrick Willis, RT Zack Conklin and now they lost C Ethan Pocic to an injury against the Raiders.  It's possible some guys return this week, but even if they do I still like the Commanders.

Washington has compiled a 3-1 record despite playing three of their first four games on the road.  They are 1-0 at home scoring on all seven drives against the Giants.  Fans are thirsty for a winner in Washington, and they will turn out to support Daniels and company in a big way Sunday afternoon.  It will be the best home-field advantage the Commanders have had since Robert Griffin III was stealing the show in his prime.

Cleveland had the worst scoring defense in the entire NFL on the road last season.  The Raiders had the worst rushing attack in the NFL heading into their game with Cleveland last week.  They promptly rushed for 152 yards and 5.2 per carry against Cleveland last week.  The Commanders are going to be able to run it up the middle on the Browns, and that is going to open the field for Daniels to continue to thrive.  

Oddsmakers are simply too slow to adjust to the fact that the Commanders are a contender, while the Browns are a dead team walking with all their injuries. It seems as though teammates don't even like Deshaun Watson, which is understandable.  This line should be much closer to -7 than -3.  Bet the Commanders Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Panthers/Bears OVER 42

The Carolina Panthers are a dead nuts OVER team right now with Andy Dalton at quarterback and arguably the worst defense in the NFL.  The Panthers combined for 58 points with the Bengals last week and 58 points with the Raiders in the game prior in Dalton's two starts at quarterback.

They put up 36 points on the Raiders with 437 total yards as Dalton threw for 319 yards and 3 touchdowns.  They put up 24 points on the Bengals behind 375 total yards and 220 passing and 2 touchdowns from Darnold.  Simply put, Dave Canales finally has a competent quarterback to run his offense.

But the Panthers are going to have to win shootouts if they are going to be competitive.  They rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense allowing 32.2 points per game.  Things are getting worse before they get better due to injuries.  They just lost LB Shaq Thomspn to injury last week.  Fellow LB Josey Jewell is questionable after suffering an injury.  NT Shy Tuttle is questionable after missing the last couple games.  DE Derrick Brown is on IR, and four key secondary pieces are on IR.

Chicago QB Caleb Williams is in line for his best game yet this week.  He went 17-of-23 passing against a bad Rams defense last week and led the Bears to 24 points.  He just got WR Keenan Allen back from injury and now has his full compliment of weapons.  De'Andre Swift finally got going with 93 rushing yards on 16 attempts last week.  I think the Bears can get to 24-plus in this one, and the Panthers should get 20-plus, thus this 42-point total is too low.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on Hawaii/San Diego State OVER 46.5

San Diego State made a great hire bringing in one of the best offensive minds in the country in former Kent State head coach Sean Lewis.  He is the architect of the 'Flash Fast' offense that turned around the Golden Flashes and put their name on the map.

It was always going to take some time for these players to get accustomed to this offense, and they weren't done any favors with a brutal schedule to start facing two elite defenses in Oregon State and California in two of their first three games.

But they got a bye after those two games and grew a lot on that bye week.  They came back last week and had a solid offensive output with 364 total yards against Central Michigan.  But they allowed 452 yards to the Chippewas and this is a leaky defense that can be exposed.  That game was much lower scoring than it should have been with a 22-21 final, and I think that is providing us some line value on the OVER this week.

In fact, these teams are a combined 7-1 to the under this season, which is why this total has been set so low.  We will take advantage.  Hawaii also had a tough schedule to start with losses to UCLA and Sam Houston State, which looks vastly improved this season.  They finally got their offense going last time out in a 36-7 win over Northern Iowa.  They put up 528 total yards, and they have had a bye since to get even better.

San Diego State beat Hawaii 41-34 in an absolute shootout last year that saw 75 combined points.  All we need is 47-plus here to cash this OVER.  And a sneaky reason I'm on the OVER is because both offenses play fast.  San Diego State ranks 8th in tempo at 22.3 seconds between plays while Hawaii ranks 34th at 24.9 seconds.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Nevada/San Jose State OVER 48.5

San Jose State's offense looks vastly improved this season.  They just put up 52 points on Washington State in an absolute OT thriller.  They now rank 38th in scoring offense at 35.5 points per game.  They also play fast ranking 21st in seconds per play, which is an over bettors' dream.

Nevada has a much better offense than most expected as well.  The Wolf Pack are averaging 379 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play.  They rush for 193.4 yards per game and 5.0 per carry, and San Jose State allows 155.2 rushing yards per game.  They will have success on the ground which will open up their improved passing game.

Nevada ranks 94th allowing 5.8 yards per play on defense.  San Jose State will keep the pedal to the metal for four quarters, and Nevada will have to try and keep up.  Both teams are fresh coming off bye weeks and will be looking to get up and down offensively.  This total should not be less than 50 given San Jose State's profile as a prolific, fast-paced offense controlling the tempo playing at home.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Michigan/Washington NBC No-Brainer on Washington ML -145

The Washington Huskies should be 5-0 right now.  If they were 5-0 like they should be, they would be bigger favorites here against Michigan.  We'll take advantage of this line value and back the Huskies on the Money Line Saturday night.

I say Washington should be 5-0 because they lost 24-19 to Washington State on a neutral despite outgaining them 452 to 381, or by 71 total yards.  But that fluky loss was nothing compared to what happened against Rutgers on last Friday.  Washington lost 21-18 at Rutgers despite outgaining the Scarlet Knights 521 to 299, or by 222 total yards.  

The Huskies will be looking to take out their frustration on the Wolverines at home in Seattle where it will be a hostile atmosphere Saturday night.  They have one of the best home-field advantages in the country, and it's even better at night.  They also want revenge from losing to Michigan in the National Championship last year.  While both teams are down compared to those teams last year, Washington is a lot less down than Michigan is this season.

Washington has elite numbers.  The Huskies rank 20th in total offense at 469.4 yards per game and 18th at 7.2 yards per play.  They rank 10th in total defense at 249.8 yards per game and 8th at 4.1 yards per play.  QB Will Rogers is completing 74.8% of his passes for 1,354 yards with a 10-to-0 TD/INT ratio.

While Michigan's defense is solid once again, keep in mind they allowed 31 points to Texas, 24 to Minnesota, 24 to USC and 18 to Arkansas State the last four weeks.  They are 1-4 ATS, and while it's partly due to the defense taking a step back, it's mostly due to not having a quarterback or a passing game on offense.

The Wolverins rank 130th in the country in passing at 115.4 yards per game.  Their one-dimensional approach will not work against Washington, which allows just 3.7 yards per carry this season.  The Huskies will stack the box and force QB Alex Orji to try and beat them.  Orji is averaging just 3.7 yards per attempt this season.

This will be the first road game of the season for the Wolverines as they somehow were allowed to schedule five straight home games to open the season.  It will not go well for Orji and the Wolverines in Seattle Saturday night.  Bet Washington on the Money Line.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on West Virginia +4.5

The spot really favors the West Virginia Mountaineers in this one.  They are coming off their bye week, while Oklahoma State will be playing for a 6th consecutive week and has been through the gauntlet.  I question how much the Cowboys have left in the tank this week as a result.

Oklahoma State beat Arkansas 39-31 in OT four weeks ago despite getting outgained by nearly 300 yards.  They went on the road and beat a bad Tulsa team 45-10 three weeks ago before returning home to face Utah.  They trailed 22-3 to the Utes before making it interesting in garbage time in a misleading 22-19 loss.  And last week they were crushed 42-20 at Kansas State.

Utah and Kansas State both play a physical brand of football that takes a lot out of the opponent.  After having to face both those teams in consecutive weeks, I think Oklahoma State is battered and bruised right now and won't be ready for this fresh WVU team.  I also just think the Cowboys were grossly overvalued coming into the season and remain overvalued still today.

The Cowboys had a miracle run to the Big 12 Championship Game last year winning close game after close game.  They have been exposed this season, and really should be 2-3 instead of 3-2 because they should have lost to Arkansas.  Now with two Big 12 losses already, their chances of winning the conference title are slim to none.

Oklahoma State has no running game on offense, and they have one of the worst defenses in the country.  The Cowboys rank 126th in total defense at 480.6 yards per game allowed.  West Virginia has played a similarly difficult schedule and has much better numbers than the Cowboys.  

They lost to Penn State and Pittsburgh before topping Kansas.  They had no business losing to Pitt blowing a 10-point lead in the final three minutes.  They rebounded nicely against the Jayhawks to give them positive momentum heading into their bye, and they have all their goals in front of them at 1-0 in Big 12 play now.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Auburn +24.5

Auburn's 2-3 record has them way undervalued right now.  The Tigers are certainly one of the best 2-3 teams in the history of college football.  Their three losses all came by 10 points or less, and they had way better stats than their opponents in two of the three defeats.

Auburn ranks 23rd in the country in total offense at 466 yards per game and 8th at 7.6 yards per play.  The Tigers rank 50th in total defense at 329 yards per game and 39th at 4.8 yards per play.  So they are outgaining their opponents by 137 yards per game and a whopping 2.8 yards per play, which are the numbers of a 4-1 or 5-0 team and not one that is 2-3.  We'll take advantage of Auburn being undervalued this week.

It won't take much for Auburn to get back up off the mat this week to face Georgia, which have been the kings of college football over the last few seasons.  But it will take a lot for Georgia to get back up off the mat to face Auburn after a deflating 41-34 loss at Alabama last week.  The Bulldogs fought all they way back from a 28-0 deficit to take a 34-33 lead, only to allow another bomb and a game-winner by Alabama before throwing an INT in the end zone to end it going in for the tie.

It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.  This Georgia team just isn't as good as the one they put on the field the last three seasons.  They have offensive line problems, Carson Beck is lacking weapons and making bad throws, and their defense is leaky.  They only beat Kentucky 13-12 as 21.5-point favorites the game before Alabama.  They should not be 24.5-point favorites against this underrated Auburn team.

Auburn took Georgia to the wire last season in a 27-20 loss as 14-point home underdogs.  And Auburn is better this season than they were last year, while Georgia isn't as good.  The value is too good to pass up here.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Indiana -13.5

Indiana is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season and would be 5-0 ATS against the opening line.  The Hoosiers are an absolute wagon this season and one of the most improved teams in the country.  They have been grossly undervalued and continue to be undervalued this week as only 13.5-point favorites against a Northwestern team that doesn't have the offense to keep up.

Indiana won its first four games by a combined score of 202-37.  The Hoosiers took a step up in class last week and handled Maryland 42-28 as 7.5-point favorites.  They won and covered despite being -4 in turnovers! That just shows the potential of this team.

Indiana has no weaknesses.  The Hoosiers rank 6th in scoring offense at 48.8 points per game, 11th in total offense at 513 yards per game and 10th at 7.6 yards per play.  They rank 19th in scoring defense at 13.0 points per game, 10th in total defense at 239.6 yards per game and 15th at 4.2 yards per play.  They are outgaining teams by nearly 300 yards per game and a whopping 3.4 yards per play.

Northwestern has another good defense this season, but the Wildcats are even worse off offensively than they were last year.  They rank 119th in scoring offense at 17.2 points per game, 121st in total offense at 294.5 yard per game and 121st at 4.6 yards per play.  They have faced three poor offenses in Miami Ohio, Duke and Eastern Illinois before losing 24-5 to Washington.  

The Wildcats managed just 102 total yards and gave up 391 to Washington, so that was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  I think we see a similar blowout here in Indiana's favor, except the Hoosiers will score more than 24.  They should be fully focused knowing they get to rest next week with a bye on deck.  The Wildcats have one of the worst home-field advantages in the country.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on East Carolina/Charlotte OVER 46.5

East Carolina is a dead nuts OVER team with how fast they play.  They rank 3rd in the country in tempo averaging 21.2 seconds in between snaps.  It means their defense is going to be on the field a lot, and that defense has been exposed the last couple weeks.

They blew a 17-point lead and lost 35-24 to Liberty two weeks ago.  Last week, they gave up 456 total yards to what was a previously dead UTSA offense and were fortunate to get out with a 30-20 victory.  Charlotte is in line for one of its best offensive outputs of the season this week.

East Carolina could score a season high as well against a Charlotte defense that ranks 118th in scoring at 33.2 points per game, 121st in total defense at 453.2 yards per game and 128th at 6.7 yards per play.  It was going to take some time for this ECU offense to gel in the new Air Raid attack, and it looks like they have the last few weeks.

Both defenses are tired right now playing for a 6th consecutive week.  I think the offenses really have an advantage here in what will be a fast-paced game, and there's no way this total should be set below 50.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Army -10.5

The Army Black Knights are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season and taking no prisoners.  They went 6-6 each of the last two seasons and were not invited to a bowl game.  That's why there will be no letdowns with this team until they get that elusive 7th win.

Army beat Lehigh 42-7 as a 32-point favorite, FAU 24-7 as a 1-point dog, Rice 37-14 as a 7.5-point favorite and Temple 42-14 as 11.5-point favorites.  There was nothing fluky about any of those wins.  They have one of their best offenses in program history, plus one of their best defenses as well.

Army ranks 1st in the entire country in rushing at 371.2 yards per game, but they also have more of a passing element this season averaging 73.2 passing yards per game and 9.5 yards per attempt.  QB Bryson Daily is one of the best QB's in school history.  He has rushed for 492 yards and 8 TD while averaging 6.0 per carry, and this team really follows him into battle with how big of a warrior he is seeking out contact.

I've been equally impressed with this Army defense.  The Black Knights 7th in scoring defense at 10.5 points per game and 13th in total defense at 258.2 yards per game.  They held what was previously a high-powered Temple offense since switching over to Evan Simon at QB to just 14 points last Thursday.  Now the Black Knights have had two extra days to rest and recover and get ready to crush Tulsa.

Tulsa is a tired team playing for a 6th consecutive week.  The Golden Hurricane are 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS this season.  They have been through the gauntlet the last four weeks.  After losing 28-24 at Arkansas State, they were crushed 45-10 at home by Oklahoma State.  Then they had to go back on the road and were fortunate to escape with a 23-20 (OT) win at Louisiana Tech.  And last week they went on the road again and got crushed 52-20 at North Texas.

I think we see a similar result here to the Oklahoma State and North Texas games.  I would argue Army would beat both of those teams, and they both outscored Tulsa 97-30 in their two wins.  It's a Tulsa defense that ranks 105th in the country allowing 34.6 points per game.  You think they want to try to tackle Daily and these physical Army backs with how drained they are already?  The answer is no.  This one will get away from them in a hurry.  Bet Army Saturday.

25* Service Academy GAME OF THE YEAR on Navy -9.5

The Navy Midshipmen are an absolute wagon offensively this season.  This is probably the best offense they've ever had, and a lot of it has to do with former Mercer offensive coordinator Drew Cronic, who is a name to watch in the coming years.

Navy is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this season behind an offense that ranks 11th in scoring at 46.0 points per game, 24th in total offense at 466 yards per game and 5th at 7.8 yards per play.  They have more balance this year rushing for 287 yards per game and throwing for 179 yards per game.  They put up 56 points and 659 total yards on a respectable Memphis defense two weeks ago.

Air Force is 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS this season.  The Falcons have one of the worst offenses in program history.  They rank 131st in scoring at 12.5 points per game, 130th in total offense at 243 yards per game and 132nd at 3.8 yards per play.  This despite facing a pretty soft schedule beating Merrimack 21-6 as a 30-point favorite, losing 17-7 at home to San Jose State as a 3-point favorite, losing 31-3 at Baylor as a 17-point dog and losing 31-19 at Wyoming as a 4-point favorite.

That effort at Wyoming was very alarming for a number of reasons.  The Falcons were coming off their bye week so they had two weeks to prepare.  And this Wyoming team is hot garbage.  The Cowboys were 0-4 previously including a 48-7 loss to Arizona State, a 17-13 home loss to FCS Idaho, a 44-17 loss at North Texas and a 34-14 home loss to BYU.

Navy will show no mercy here and will keep pouring on the points considering they will be playing with quadruple revenge with four straight losses to Air Force in this series.  It's time for the Midshipmen to the return the favor in blowout fashion.  The Falcons simply cannot keep up with the Midsphipmen offensively in this one.  Bet Navy Saturday.

15* Syracuse/UNLV FS1 ANNIHILATOR on UNLV -6.5

The UNLV Rebels showed how much more potent they can be with Hajj-Malik Williams at quarterback in their 59-14 beat down of Fresno State last week.  They finally have a passing game as Williams completed 13-of-16 passes for 182 yards and 3 touchdowns, and he proved he can handle the load on the ground as well with 119 rushing yards and a touchdown on 12 carries.

But this UNLV defense being improved is the reason they are a contender to make the 12-team playoff.  The Rebels rank 20th in the country in scoring defense at 13.8 points per game.  They are 30th in total defense at 309.5 yards per game and they only allow 4.8 yards per play as well.

This is a much more favorable spot for UNLV than it is for Syracuse.  The Rebels had a bye prior to last week and then got to host Fresno State last week.  They have been home for three straight weeks.  Syracuse has played each of the last two weeks at home against Stanford and Holy Cross, actually getting upset by the Cardinal on Friday Night two weeks ago.  Now they have to travel all the way out West to Las Vegas and play on a short week.

This will be the first road game of the season for Syracuse.  They have benefited from a very soft home schedule of Ohio, Georgia Tech, Stanford and Holy Cross.  This will be by far their stiffest test of the season, and I don't expect them to handle it very well.  Syracuse is just 12-34 SU in its last 46 road games over the last nine seasons.  It's a tough spot for a first-year head coach trying to get his troops ready in time to face this red-hot UNLV team.

UNLV is now 18-4 ATS in 22 games under current head coach Barry Odom.  The books just cannot seem to catch up to how good this team really is.  Bet UNLV Friday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on UTEP +10.5

The spot really favors the UTEP Miners Thursday night.  They should not be catching double-digits given the spot being so heavily in their favor tonight, and we'll take advantage.

UTEP has a first-year head coach in Scotty Walden who comes over from Austin Peay and brought several of his players with him.  But the leftover players still needed to learn his systems, and it was going to take some time.  Well, UTEP got a bye last week, and bye weeks are more beneficial to first-year coaches than any other coaches.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on UTEP after opening 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS against a pretty difficult schedule.  Three of the losses came on the road to Nebraska, Liberty and Colorado State.  Nebraska is one of the best teams in the Big Ten, Liberty is a team that many feel will go unbeaten and make the four-team playoff, and Colorado State is no pushover.

After giving Liberty all they wanted in a 28-10 loss as 24-point dogs, UTEP put up a good fight in a 27-17 loss at Colorado State as 9-point dogs last time out.  The Miners made a switch at QB midway through that game and went to veteran Cade McConnell, who injected life into this offense going 19-of-29 for 220 yards and 2 touchdowns.  McConnell will be the starter moving forward, and getting the bye week to take all the first-team reps will be greatly beneficial to him and this offense.

But this play is as much a fade of Sam Houston State as anything.  The Bearkats are grossly overvalued right now after starting 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS, and they are in the ultimate letdown spot.  Three wins came against Rice, Hawaii and New Mexico State with a 45-14 loss at UCF.  Those first three teams are three of the worst in all of college football.

No question the 40-39 win over Texas State last Saturday was impressive.  The Bearkats came back from a 22-0 deficit to beat the Bobcats 40-39 on a last-second field goal.  They used a ton of energy to come back and pull off that upset against their in-state rivals, and now I question how much they will have left in the tank.  

The Bearkats will be playing for a 6th consecutive week and are now on a short week to boot, only getting 4 days to recover in between games.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat 0-4 UTEP this week in this clear flat spot.  QB Hunter Watson rushed 27 times for 105 yards in that win and has to at least be a little banged up with how much they use him in the running game.  The Miners are live underdogs here tonight.  Bet UTEP Thursday.

15* Bucs/Falcons NFC South ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta ML -120

I like the spot for the Atlanta Falcons this week.  They sit at 2-2 on the season trailing the Tampa Bay Bucs (3-1) for first place in the NFC South.  They don't want to fall essentially three games behind with a loss, so they will be max motivated for a win.

I like the fact that the Falcons played at home on Sunday and get to stay at home, so there is no travel involved.  That is crucial for them on this short week.  The Bucs don't have the same luxury having to travel up from Tampa Bay, and it's always tougher on the road team for these short week games.

The Falcons are also a lot healthier than the Bucs right now.  It looks like the Falcons will get RT Kaleb McGary back this week as he returned to practice on a limited basis Tuesday.  RB Bijan Robinson and WR Ray-Ray McCloud III also got in limited practices.  The only key player the Falcons will likely be missing is ILB Troy Anderson, who missed practice Tuesday after suffering a knee injury last week.

The Bucs have nine starters either questionable or out, and four backups either questionable or out.  WR Jalen McMillan, WR Trey Palmer, DL Calijah Kancey and S Antoine Winfield all did not practice on Tuesday and are likely out.  WR Mike Williams, OT Tristan Wirfs and NT Vita Vea all got in limited practices and are likely to go.  The Bucs placed ILB SirVocea Dennis on injured reserve.

The Bucs are getting too much respect for beating the Eagles 33-16 last week.  That was an Eagles team missing their two best weapons in AJ Brown and DaVante Smith plus their best offensive linemen in LT Lane Johnson.  The Eagles were handicapped offensively and it showed.  Keep in mind the Bucs lost to the Broncos 26-7 the previous week, and they were outgained by 463 to 216 by the Lions in a fraudulent Week 2 win.  They have benefited from playing three of their first four games at home.

The Falcons have been impressive the last three weeks.  They upset the Eagles 22-21 on the road in Week 2, and that was an Eagles team that was a lot healthier at the time than the one the Bucs faced last week.  They were a missed pass interference call away from likely upsetting the Kansas City Chiefs at home in a 22-17 defeat.  And last week they gutted out a 26-24 home win over the New Orleans Saints.  They got two non-offensive touchdowns in the win, but they still outgained the Saints 6.2 to 5.2 yards per play for the game, so it wasn't as fluky as a lot of people are making it out to be.

The motivation, the situation and the injuries favor Atlanta in this one.  Bet the Falcons on the Money Line Thursday.

15* Seahawks/Lions ABC ANNIHILATOR Detroit -4

The Detroit Lions will be max motivated tonight.  They want revenge from a 37-31 (OT) loss to the Seahawks in 2023 and a 48-45 loss in 2022.  In fact, they have lost six straight to the Seahawks in this series.  They are also trailing the 3-0 Seahawks in the NFC standings, plus they have a bye on deck next week, so they will be 'all in' for a win here tonight.

The Seahawks have played the easiest schedule in the NFL to this point.  They beat the Broncos and rookie QB Bo Nix 26-20 as 6.5-point home favorites in Week 1.  They needed OT to beat the Patriots 23-20 as 3-point road favorites in Week 2.  Then they had to fly all the way back to Seattle and took advantage of a short-handed Dolphins team in a 24-3 victory as 4-point favorites.  The Dolphins were starting Skyler Thompson at QB, and he got hurt and they were down to third-stringer Tim Boyle in the second half.

To say this will be a step up in class for the Seahawks would be a massive understatement.  Now they face a Detroit Lions team with elite numbers thus far and should be 3-0 if not for going 1-for-7 in the red zone in an upset loss to the Bucs.  The Lions rank 4th in total offense at 399.7 yards per game and 10th in total defense at 293.3 yards per game.  Their improvement on defense this season is the reason the Lions are a real Super Bowl contender.

The Seahawks have a solid offense this season, but their offensive line is a weakness and this Detroit pass rush led by Aidan Hutchinson will be a problem for them.  Seattle has a defensive-minded head coach in Mike McDonald and a solid defense, but this is a defense that is missing several key players that the Lions will exploit, especially up the middle trying to stop the run.  

Seattle will be without starting DE Leonard Williams, starting WLB Uchenna Nwoso and starting SLB Boye Mafe.  They are also without two key depth pieces in NT Cameron Young and DE Byron Murhpy II.  I think Detroit will wear them down with their running game, which has produced 163 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry thus far this season.  Bet the Lions Monday.

20* Bills/Ravens NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Baltimore ML -140

I think the Bills and Ravens are two pretty equal teams despite their records.  Buffalo is 3-0 while Baltimore is 1-2.  And those records are the reason we are getting the Ravens at a discount, and also the reason the Ravens will be the much more motivated team knowing they can't afford to fall to 1-3 and three games behind the Bills with a loss.

The Bills are 3-0 while benefitting from a very easy schedule.  They needed a double-digit comeback to beat the best team they played in Arizona 34-28 as 7-point favorites in Week 1.  They took advantage of three interceptions by Tagovailoa and an injury to him in their 31-10 win in Week 2.  And last week they took advantage of a banged up Jaguars team that played man-to-man defense the entire game against Josh Allen, who owns man-to-man defense. This will be far and away the toughest challenge of the season for the Bills, plus they are on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football.

The Ravens have played the much tougher schedule and could easily be 3-0.  They lost 27-20 to the Chiefs in Week 1 despite outgaining them 452 to 353.  They lost 26-23 to the Raiders despite outgaining them 383 to 260 in Week 2.  And last week they showed that sense of urgency that they will show today as well, jumping on the Cowboys 28-6 going into the 4th quarter before calling off the dogs.  That was a misleading 28-25 final as the Cowboys scored three times in garbage time.  The Ravens had 456 total yards on the Cowboys.

The Ravens have elite numbers, ranking 1st in total offense at 430.3 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play.  They allow 341.7 yards per game and that number would be much loser if not for those yards given up to the Cowboys in garbage time.  What makes these numbers that much more impressive is that they have faced the much tougher schedule.  Buffalo is only outgaining teams by 42 yards per game against a much softer schedule.

The Ravens will play more zone coverage and make life tougher on Allen and this limited Buffalo offense.  The Ravens are the best rushing team in the NFL, and the weakness of the Bills is up the middle stopping the run.  They are wtihout their two best LB's in Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano.  They are also without CB Taron Johnson.  The Bills haven't faced a rushing offense nearly this potent this season, so I like the matchup for the Ravens a lot in this one.

Lamar Jackson is 23-7 ATS as a favorite of -3 or less or an underdog in his career.  Bet the Ravens on the Money Line Sunday night.

15* Browns/Raiders AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Las Vegas ML -120

This is the one premium pick Sunday I likely won't get a better number on game day.  I went in on the Raiders ML -120 when I found out the injury situation for the Browns.  But since I published this pick the Raiders have gotten some bad injury news as they will be without both WR Davante Adams and DE Maxx Crosby, which are two of their best players.  That came out of nowhere.

I still think the Raiders are good enough to win this game with what they have.  The Browns have seven offensive linemen on the injury report, and OL injuries are a big reason Deshaun Watson has looked as poorly as he has.  They will be without their two starting offensive tackles in Willis and Conklin, plus TE David Njoku is out again this week as well.

Watson is completing just 57.8% of his passes while averaging 4.8 yards per attempt through three games.  They lost 33-17 to the Cowboys at home in Week 1, were fortunate to beat the Jaguars 18-13 in Week 2, and were upset 21-15 by the Giants at home in Week 3.  Those performances against the Giants and Jaguars don't look as good now with those teams a combined 1-5, and the Cowboys are in rough shape this season as well.  Those are three of the worst defenses in the NFL the Browns got to face, and the Browns still rank just 31st in total offense at 248.0 yards per game and 31st at 4.1 yards per play.

The Raiders had every opportunity to beat the Chargers in a 16-10 home loss in Week 1.  They pulled off the 26-23 upset at Baltimore as 8.5-point dogs in Week 2, and that win has aged very well.  Last week they suffered an obvious letdown coming back home from that Baltimore win.  They lost 36-22 to the Carolina Panthers, who were rejuvenated with Andy Dalton at QB.

Las Vegas head coach Antonio Pierce called out his players for making 'business decisions' in that loss to the Panthers.  His players love him, and I expect them to respond in a big way here Sunday.  Despite the injuries, I think the Raiders are still good enough to find a way to win this game against the Browns, whose injury situation may be even worse.  DE Myles Garrett isn't right and is playing through injury as well.  Bet the Raiders on the Money Line Sunday.

15* Commanders/Cardinals NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on OVER 48.5

I gave out the OVER 48.5 on Sunday night.  I was on the Commanders/Bengals OVER 47 in the Monday Night Football game and I anticipated a high-scoring game and that this total would open higher. That's what we got with 71 combined points between the Bengals and Commanders.  It has indeed opened higher, but it's still not high enough.  I find value in the OVER at least up to the key number of 51.

The Commanders and Cardinals may very well have the two worst defenses in the NFL.  The Commanders rank 29th in scoring defense, 29th in total defense and 31st in yards per play allowed despite facing two of the worst offenses in the Giants and Bucs.  They are allowing 29.3 points per game, 377.3 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play this season.  They are also dealing with a ton of injuries defensively and have one of the worst secondary's in the NFL.

The Cardinals allowed 34 points to the Bills in their opener.  They had the fortune of playing the Rams who were decimated by injuries on offense in Week 2 and won 41-10.  The Lions moved it up and down the field on them last week with 373 total yards including 187 rushing.  They went ground and pound and just controlled the game with their running game and defense, which is one of the best in the NFL this season.

The Cardinals have faced two elite defenses in the Bills and Lions, and the one game against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Rams they hung 41 points.  They will come close to hanging that on the Commanders as well.  Kyler Murray looks like his old electric self, using his legs a lot more this season to make plays, and he finally has a No. 1 target in Marvin Harrison Jr. who has scored 3 TD in his last two games.  James Conner will have a big game in this one on the ground as well.

This Washington offense has been on fire with Rookie of the Year favorite Jayden Daniels at quarterback.  They became the first team in NFL history to not punt and or turn the ball over once in two consecutive games.  They haven't punted since there was 11 minutes left in the 4th quarter in Week 1 against the Bucs.

In fact, the Commanders have put together 14 straight scoring drives since Week 1 when you throw out them kneeling before the half against the Bengals, who also didn't punt last week.  Daniels went 21-of-23 passing for 254 yards and 2 TD against the Bengals, while also rushing for 39 yards and a score.  He is now completing 80.3% of his passes on the season while also rushing for 171 yards and three scores.

This game has shootout written all over it with two of the best offenses in the NFL up against two of the worst defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Vikings/Packers NFC North ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay ML -125

The Green Bay Packers are likely to get Jordan Love back at QB this week.  If they do, they won't be only -125 favorites on the Money Line, and they will likely be -3 or higher on the spread.  I grabbed this number Sunday night with the anticipation that Love would be back this week.

Either way, the Packers look like a juggernaut this season.  Their offense is loaded and their defense is one of the most improved in the NFL.  They beat the Colts 16-10 in Week 2 with Malik Willis at quarterback.  They beat Tennessee 30-14 in Week 3 as Willis got revenge on his former team.  That was a desperate Titans team looking to avoid an 0-3 start, so it was mighty impressive.

There will be no letdown spot for the Packers here considering they are 2-1 and actually trailing the 3-0 Minnesota Vikings in the division.  And now it's time to 'sell high' on the Vikings, who are getting a lot of hype due to this 3-0 start with a road win over the Giants, and home wins over both the Vikings and Texans.

The Vikings are 3-0 despite only outgaining opponents by 19 yards per game.  I don't think they are as good as their record.  To compare, the Packers are outgaining opponents by 63 yards per game.  Minnesota has had a lot of turnover luck thus far and I don't think it continues this week.  This will be their toughest test of the season against a Packers team that has one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL.  Bet the Packers on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Eagles/Bucs UNDER 46

Injuries to this Philadelphia offense are a big reason I'm on the UNDER 46 here.  I grabbed this number Sunday night anticipating it would get bet down, and we got a great number here because of it.  The total is down to 42.5 and 43 in most places as of this writing Saturday morning.

The Eagles were already without AJ Brown last week.  Then they lost DeVonta Smith and RT Lane Johnson to concussions in an ugly 15-12 win at New Orleans.  They are going to have to get used to trying to win ugly with their running game until they get healthy on offense again.  They will be without Smith this week, and Brown and Johnson are both questionable.

The Bucs have injury problems of their own on offense with WR Jalen McMillan out for this one, and RB Bucky Irving and RT Luke Goedeke questionable.  The Bucs rank 26th in total offense at 277 yards per game.  The Broncos beat them 26-7 last week as their offense was completely held in check.  Now they'll be going up against an improved Philadelphia defense that is hungry for revenge after losing 32-9 to the Bucs in the playoffs last year.  It's a Philadelphia defense that held the Saints to 12 points last week, a Saints offense that was the best in the NFL through two weeks.

The Bucs were without Vita Vea last week and he's arguably their most important defensive player.  Vea is expected to be back this week, and that's huge going up against this one-dimensional Philadelphia rushing attack.  He is one of the best run-stuffers in the NFL.  This is a Tampa Bay defense that held the Lions to 16 points and the Commanders to 20 points, and those are two of the best offenses in the NFL.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Saints/Falcons NFC South ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -1

The Saints were rolling to a 2-0 start with blowout wins over the Cowboys and Panthers.  Everything was looking up for this team, and then a 15-12 home loss to the short-handed Philadelphia Eagles happened last week.  The Saints suffered a ton of key injuries in that loss to boot, and those injuries are a big reason I am fading them today.

The Saints were fortunate to even be in that game against the Eagles, who outgained them 460 to 219, or by 241 total yards.  Giving up 460 yards to the Eagles is a terrible look when you consider they were without star WR AJ Brown, and they lost both WR DeVonta Smith and LT Lane Johnson to concussions.  The Saints basically just needed to stop TE Dallas Goedert on the final drive to seal the win, and they couldn't do it.

The Saints lost two starting offensive linemen in that game last week.  C Erik McCoy was far and away their best offensive lineman, and now he is on IR.  G Cesar Ruiz is out as well.  Things are so bad that the Saints brought in five offensive linemen earlier this week to work out.

The bad injury news for the Saints didn't stop there.  Now their two best playmakers on offense in RB Alvin Kamara and WR Chris Olave are questionable to play Sunday.  Fellow starting WR Cedrick Wilson Jr. is questionable, and backup WR A.J. Perry is out.  Defensively, MLB Demario Davis is out and he hasn't missed a start in 13 years.  He is the leader of their defense and a big blow on that side of the football.

The Atlanta Falcons are remarkably healthy through three games with their main loss being RT Kaleb McGary.  They are also highly motivated for a win this week considering they are trailing the Saints by one game in the NFC South and don't want to fall two games back.  I also like the improvements I've seen from this team since their 18-12 Week 1 home loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Falcons gutted out a 22-21 win at Philadelphia in Week 2 with a huge game-winning drive from Kirk Cousins in the final seconds.  Cousins looked lost in Week 1 against a very good Pittsburgh defense, but he has since looked better each week and this offense has a lot of confidence in him.

Cousins and the Falcons deserved better in a 22-17 home loss to the defending champion Chiefs as 3-point underdogs in Week 3.  The refs missed a pass interference call in the end zone that would have eventually given the Falcons a late lead.  They showed they could play with the defending champs, and while this would usually be the type of loss that could beat a team twice, it won't be this week given the situation.  

The Falcons have to quickly refocus with a division opponent coming to town in the Saints, who they are trailing in the standings.  I expect the Falcons to handle their business against the short-handed Saints in this one.  I grabbed Atlanta -1 as soon as I saw the injury news for the Saints, and I would still play them up to -3.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Bears PK

This is the ultimate 'buy low, sell high' spot.  The Chicago Bears are coming off two consecutive losses on the road to the Texans by 6 and the Colts by 5.  But now they are back home and highly motivated for a victory Sunday afternoon.

The Los Angeles Rams are coming off their shocking 14-point comeback win at home over the San Francisco 49ers as 7-point underdogs.  Off a win against their biggest rivals, this is the ultimate letdown spot for the Rams.

Both results last week were misleading which is providing us line value this week on the Bears as well.  The Bears outgained the Colts 395 to 306 but lost 21-16.  Caleb Willams threw for 363 yards and 2 TD to show what he is capable of, and I think he's in line for his best game of the season this week against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Rams.

The Rams beat the 49ers 27-24 despite getting outgained 425 to 296 by San Francisco.  They had no business winning that game.  This came a week after losing 41-10 at Arizona while getting outgained 489 to 245 by the Cardinals.

Simply put, the Rams have the worst injury situation in the NFL right now.  They are without their two best weapons in Kupp and Nacua.  Their offensive line is banged up, and their defense is banged up and terrible as it is.  The Rams rank dead last in the NFL allowing 425.7 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play this season.

The Bears have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They rank 8th allowing 286.7 yards per game and 9th allowing 5.1 yards per play.  They are 10th in scoring defense at 19.0 points per game as well.  They have the better defense, are the much healthier team, and have home-field advantage, so this game should not be PK.

I locked this line in at PK Sunday night assuming the Bears would take money and they have since with the line up to -3 as of this writing.  I would still play it up to -3.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

15* Arizona/Utah ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -11

There's no game atmosphere quite like Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City on a Saturday night.  The Utah Utes have one of the best home-field advantages in the country as it is, and that is magnified for night games.  Utah is 33-2 SU in its last 35 home games.

That's why I'm not worried about Utah having a letdown following their big 22-19 win at Oklahoma State last week.  The Cowboys trailed 22-3 with less than 6 minutes left in the 4th quarter.  They managed to score two touchdowns and two 2-point conversions in the final 6 minutes to make the final look closer than it really was.  They were outgained 456 to 285 by Utah, or by 171 total yards.  And keep in mind their offense was held to just over 100 yards before those final two TD drives.

Arizona is a team that profiles similar to Oklahoma State.  The Wildcats play no defense and rely heavily on their passing attack to move the football.  They will get mauled at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football, and we've already seen this happen to them in their lone road game this season against a team that profiles similar to Utah.

Arizona lost 31-7 at Kansas State last time out.  The Wildcats gave up 235 rushing yards to Kansas State.  I'm not worried that the Utes will be playing backup QB Isaac Wilson.  He is a dual-threat who threw for 207 yards and a TD, while also rushing for 41 yards on six carries while handling the atmosphere at Oklahoma State very well last week.  Bernard rushed for 182 yards as the Utes rushed for 249 as a team in that game.  They will get whatever they want on the ground against Arizona.

Arizona wasn't sharp in the two games prior to Kansas State, either.  The Wildcats only beat New Mexico 61-39 as 28-point favorites.  They gave up 470 total yards to the Lobos, who were playing their first game with a new head coach.  In their 2nd game, they barely beat Northern Arizona 22-10 as 37-point favorites.  They actually trailed 10-6 at halftime in that contest.  There's just not a lot to like about this Arizona team after losing many of their players and their head coach to Washington.  Brent Brennan may be in over his head this season, and he certainly is this week.  Bet Utah Saturday.

15* Washington State/Boise State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 64

Two of the best offenses in the country go up against two of the worst defenses in the country Saturday night when Washington State visits Boise State.  Washington State wants to play fast ranking 15th in the country in seconds per play.  Boise ranks 41st in the same category and plays faster than average as well.

Boise State is averaging 48.7 points per game, 543 yards per game and 7.9 yards per play ranking in the Top 10 in the country in all three categories.  The Broncos rank 3rd in the country in rushing at 311.3 yards per game.  The Broncos should get what they want against a Washington State defense that ranks 128th in the country allowing 470.8 yards per game along with 6.1 yards per play.

Washington State ranks 10th in the country at 515.2 yards per game while averaging 7.5 yards per play.  They have a balanced attack with 225 rushing yards per game and 291 passing yards per game.  They'll be up against a Boise State defense that allowed 45 points to Georgia Southern and 37 points to Oregon.

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 80's, no wind and no chance of precipitation in Boise Saturday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan State +24

What more does Michigan State have to do to get some respect? The Spartans are 3-1 SU this season including a 27-24 road win at Maryland as 8.5-point dogs.  They dominated that game outgaining the Terrapins 484 to 339, or by 145 total yards.

In their lone loss this season, Michigan State outgained Boston College 368 to 292, but they were +3 in turnovers which was the difference in their 23-19 defeat as 5-point road dogs.  That's a Boston College team that nearly upset Missouri in a 27-21 road loss and did upset Florida State 28-13 as 16.5-point dogs.

Ohio State is getting too much respect for three blowout wins against overmatched opponents.  The Buckeyes have faced the 168th-ranked schedule in the country.  Their three wins have come against Akron, Western Michigan and Marshall and all three were at home, plus they failed to cover the spread in two of them.  I think they'll get more of a test from the Spartans than they bargained for this week in their first road game.

I like the matchup for the Spartans.  They have an elite defense that ranks 14th allowing 254.8 yards per game, 29th against the run allowing 96.8 yards per game, and 14th allowing 2.6 yards per carry.  That's impressive considering they have played the much tougher schedule.  Ohio State wants to run the football, and the Spartans will offer plenty of resistance.

QB Aidan Chiles has kept this Michigan State offense afloat.  He has thrown for 891 yards while also rushing for 95 yards and three scores in four games.  I expect him to make enough plays to keep the Spartans competitive for four quarters, plus they can rely on a running game that averages 153.8 yards per game and 4.6 per carry thus far.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on UCF -13.5

I grabbed UCF -13.5 earlier in the week and it's playable up to -14.  This game has blowout written all over it.  The Bounce House is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and you know fans will be revved up with Deion Sanders and Colorado coming to town.

The Knights are loaded this season with 15 returning starters and a serious contender in the Big 12 under Gus Malzahn.  This is his best team yet, especially with the addition of QB KJ Jefferson from Arkansas.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season including an upset win at TCU.

The Knights have since had a bye week, so they have had two full weeks to prepare for Colorado to give them a big advantage in rest and preparation.  The Knights are loaded offensively ranking 3rd in total offense at 570.7 yards per game including 1st in rushing at 375.7 yards per game and 6.8 per carry.  They will run wild on this soft Colorado defense, and they'll be able to keep piling on the points late with this rushing attack to pull away.

This is a terrible spot for Colorado.  They are coming off a 38-31 (OT) win at Baylor in which they needed a hail mary on the final play of regulation just to get into OT.  They scored first, and Baylor fumbled going into the end zone.  The Buffaloes celebrated like they won the National Championship afterward, and I question how much they'll have left in the tank this week for UCF.

We saw Colorado step up in class on the road earlier this season at Nebraska in a 28-10 defeat.  They trailed 28-0 at halftime and it was over before it started.  I think that will be the case this week.  UCF knows they just have to stop the pass because Colorado cannot run the ball, and they have a very good pass rush.  They will be prepared to stop QB Sanders and WR Hunter in this one.  The Buffaloes just don't have much else, and their lack of depth defensively will really get tested in this one as the Knights keep pounding the rock.

Temps will be in the 80's so the Buffaloes will wear out faster.  Plus, there is a very good chance of rain, and the team that can run the football will fare better in these conditions.  This just sets up perfectly for a blowout in favor of the Knights.  Bet UCF Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UTSA/ECU OVER 53.5

Two teams that want to play fast square off when UTSA visits East Carolina Saturday.  East Carolina ranks 4th in the country in seconds per play, while UTSA ranks 11th.  This total of 53.5 is too low for two offenses that want to play this fast.

UTSA clearly has an awful defense this season.  The Miners allowed 56 points to Texas and 49 points to Texas State.  East Carolina hasn't exactly turned their yards into points yet this season, but I think they will this week with their best offensive output of the season against the soft Miners.

UTSA got their offense going last week with 45 points.  I think they will find success against a ECU defense that allowed 35 points to Liberty last week.  Plus, the Pirates just lost their best defensive player to a season-ending injury prior to that game, CB Shavon Revel Jr. who was going to be a high NFL draft pick.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Eastern Michigan -14.5

Kent State is the worst team in college football and it's not close.  The Golden Flashes are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS this season.  They are scoring 10.2 points per game and averaging 167.5 yards per game while allowing 51.2 points per game and 607.5 yards per game.  They are getting outscored by 40.0 points per game and getting outgained by 440 yards per game.

They are beat up right now after losing 55-24 to Pittsburgh, 23-17 to St. Francis PA, 71-0 to Tennessee and 56-0 to Penn State.  They are without their top two quarterbacks in Kargman and Sherrod and are already down to their 3rd-stringer, who has completing 1-of-7 passes on the season.

Eastern Michigan is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Eagles are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS with a 28-14 win at UMass as 2.5-point dogs, a 30-9 loss at Washington as 24.5-point dogs, a 37-34 (OT) win over Jacksonville State as 2.5-point dogs, and a 36-0 win over St. Francis PA as 25.5-point favorites.

So these teams already have a common opponent in St. Francis PA.  Eastern Michigan beat them 36-0 and held them to 154 total yards while outgaining them by 173 yards.  Kent State lost to them 23-17 while allowing 404 yards and getting outgained by 124 yards.  This one has blowout written all over it.  Bet Eastern Michigan Saturday.

15* Fresno State/UNLV MWC ANNIHILATOR on UNLV ML -120

This line has dropped from UNLV -4.5 all the way down to nearly a PK due to the news that QB Matt Sluka would redshirt and sit out the rest of the season.  It's too big of an adjustment when you consider UNLV's offense was limited by Sluka who was a 43% passer.

Many believe backup Hajj-Malik Williams should have been the starter from the jump as these two were in a fierce battle all the way through fall camp.  Williams threw for 8,248 yards and 58 touchdowns at Campbell prior to coming here and he is the much better passer, plus he can also get it done on the ground, tho he's not as physical a runner as Sluka.

UNLV's captain LB tweeted out 'bout time let's ride' when he heard the news that Sluka elected to sit out paving the way for Williams.  UNLV"s best receiver in Ricky White, who had 88 receptions for 1,483 yards and 8 TD last year, tweeted out that Williams would throw for 300 yards and two touchdowns in this game.  His team clearly has his back, and I believe this is one of those situations where Williams' teammates rally around him for a big performance.

UNLV has been led by its defense this season anyway.  The Rebels are one of the most improved defenses in the country allowing 13.7 points per game, 297.3 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  Barry Odom is a defensive-minded head coach and he finally has his players in place.  They are balling out on D this season.

Now the Rebels are fresh and ready to go coming off their bye week since upsetting Kansas 23-20 as 9-point road dogs last time out.  They are out for revenge on Fresno State after losing 31-24 to the Broncos as 10.5-point road dogs last season.  The Bulldogs had no business winning that game as the Rebels outgained them 424 to 312, or by 112 total yards.

Fresno State used a lot of energy in putting away New Mexico 38-21 on the road last week.  This was one of the most misleading final scores last week.  New Mexico outgained Fresno State 485 to 345, or by 140 total yards.  That's a very bad look allowing that many yards to New Mexico.  Their defense was on the field for 81 plays and that will carry over to this week.  I love the spot for the Rebels.  Bet UNLV Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -7

The Indiana Hoosiers are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  Curt Cignetti brought a lot of players with him from James Madison and brought in some more great recruits, and the early results are impressive.

The Hoosiers are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS which would be 4-0 ATS if you bet Indiana early in Week 1.  They beat FIU 31-7 as 26-point home favorites, Western Illinois 77-3 as 45-point home favorites, UCLA 42-13 as 3.5-point road favorites and Charlotte 52-14 as 28.5-point home favorites.

That win over UCLA looks even better now after UCLA went on the road last week and only lost by 17 at LSU.  The Hoosiers are a real contender in the Big Ten, and we'll keep getting them at a discount until the oddsmakers and betting public realize it.

Maryland is a rebuilding team this season.  The Terrapins lost all of their top playmakers on offense including their all-everything QB in Tagovailoa.  They have wins over Virginia, UConn and Villanova, but when they stepped up in class they lost 27-24 as 8.5-point home favorites to Michigan State.  They were outgained 484 to 339, or by 145 yards by the Spartans.

Now the Terrapins face their toughest test of the season here on the road against Indiana, which is backed by an excited fan base and will have a bigger home-field advantage than normal because of it.  If they gave up 484 yards to an average Michigan State offense, you can imagine what this Indiana offense is going to do to them.  

The Hoosiers are averaging 50.5 points per game, 513.8 yards per game and 7.8 yards per play this season.  Their defense has been equally impressive, allowing 9.2 points per game, 199.2 yards per game and 3.7 yards per play.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Oklahoma State/Kansas State UNDER 56

One look at the recent head-to-head history between Oklahoma State and Kansas State and it's easy to see there's value on the UNDER 56 in this one.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 51 or fewer combined points in all six meetings.  It will be more of the same here.

I expect Kansas State to control this game playing from ahead.  The Wildcats are a methodical running team that relies on running the football and playing defense to win games.  They rush for 240 yards per game and only throw for 160 yards per game.  They allow just 297 yards per game on the season.

We saw Utah stymie this Oklahoma State offense last week holding them to 3 points with less than 6 minutes to play before the Cowboys scored two touchdowns with two 2-point conversions in the final six minutes for a 22-19 final.  Kansas State profiles similar to Utah and will do the same.

We saw Kansas State play a team with a similar profile to Oklahoma State earlier this season.  Kansas State beat Arizona 31-7 at home.  Arizona is known for a high-powered offense that plays little defense.  Kansas State controlled this game playing from ahead and it saw just 38 combined points.  It will be more of the same here against the Cowboys.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Oklahoma State/K-State ESPN No-Brainer on Kansas State -4

I grabbed K-State -4 earlier this week and it's playable all the way up to -6.5.  I love the spot for the Wildcats.  They are coming off an embarrassing, misleading 38-9 loss at BYU in a late-night game in Provo where it's very tough to win.  I had BYU +7.5 in that game and it was one of my 20* Top Plays.

But that game was a lot closer than the final score.  Kansas State settled for a couple short field goals early to keep the Cougars in it.  They scored 17 unanswered points in two minutes right before halftime to bust it open.  One was a 30-yard fumbled return TD.  Later in the 2nd half they got a 90-yard punt return TD that was one of the craziest returns you'll ever see.

Kansas State actually outgained BYU 357 to 241 for the game, or by 116 total yards.  They lost the turnover battle 3-0 and allowed that punt return TD, which was the difference.  Their defense and running game remains elite, and that will be the difference in this game Saturday.

The Wildcats rank 36th in total defense allowing 297.5 yards per game.  They face an Oklahoma State team that doesn't play defense, ranking 126th in the country allowing 461 yards per game.  You could tell this defense was going to be bad when they allowed 648 total yards to Arkansas in a very fortunate OT win where they were outgained by nearly 300 yards.

Oklahoma State is coming off a misleading 22-19 home loss to Utah and their backup QB last week.  They trailed 22-3 with less than 6 minutes left in the 4th quarter.  They managed to score two touchdowns and two 2-point conversions in the final 6 minutes to make the final look closer than it really was.  They were outgained 456 to 285 by Utah, or by 171 total yards.  And keep in mind their offense was held to just over 100 yards before those final two TD drives.

Now Oklahoma State goes up against another team with a very similar profile to Utah.  They are a team that plays elite defense and runs the football.  The Cowboys are allowing 180.2 rushing yards per game to rank 103rd in the country in defending the run.  The Wildcats will run wild on them.

Offensively, the Cowboys are lost at the QB position.  Alan Bowman got benched last week before returning late in the game.  They cannot run the ball despite coming into the season with one of the best backs in the country in Ollie Gordon.  They rank 115th in rushing at 96.2 yards per game and 109th at 3.3 yards per carry.  They are a one-dimensional passing attack and the Wildcats will be ready for it.

Kansas State is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of -7 or less under current head coach Chris Kleiman.  I trust the Wildcats to respond in a big way similar to when they beat Oklahoma State 48-0 at home two years ago as 2.5-point favorites.  The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet Kansas State Saturday.

25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Western Kentucky +13

Note: It was announced that BC starting QB Castellanos would miss this game since I posted this pick.  The line is currently down to +8 at most places.  It's still a 25* at +7.5 or better, and a 20* at anything worse.

Boston College is overvalued for playing well against two teams that are way overrated in my opinion.  I was on the Eagles when they upset Florida State 28-13 as 16.5-point dogs and I was on them again when they took Missouri to the wire in a 27-21 defeat as 14.5-point dogs.

Florida State is lucky to not be 0-4 right now as they got a win over Cal that they didn't deserve last week.  Missouri needed OT to beat Vanderbilt at home last week.  So those two performances don't look nearly as good now.

I successfully faded the Eagles last week as they failed to cover as 5-point favorites in a 23-19 home win over Michigan State.  They had no business winning that game as they were outgained 368 to 292 by the Spartans, but they were +3 in turnovers which was the difference.

This is the ultimate flat spot for Boston College now.  They have been through the gauntlet going to the wire with Missouri and Michigan State the last two weeks, which were also two very physical games.  I question how much they have left in the tank for Western Kentucky this week.  

It's also a sandwich spot with an ACC opponent in Virginia on deck next week.  And it's fair to question how much intensity the Eagles will be playing with after playing their famous 'Red Bandana' game last week against Sparty.  They get up for that game every year for obvious reasons, and now they will come back down from it in this obvious flat spot.

Western Kentucky is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS this season with their lone loss coming to Alabama.  The Hilltoppers have been playing better the last two weeks since switching to Caden Veltkamp at quarterback.  He led them to their big comeback bowl win last year while throwing 5 TD passes.  He should have started from the jump, and he is proving it completing 73.9% of his passes with a 6-to-2 TD/INT ratio since taking over as starter two games ago.

The 31-0 win over Eastern Kentucky as 19.5-point favorites and the 49-21 win at Middle Tennessee as 7-point favorites weren't that impressive despite the fact that they covered by such large margins.  It was the 26-21 win as 2.5-point dogs to Toledo last week that was impressive.  Toledo was coming off a 41-17 win at SEC foe Mississippi State, and many expected the Rockets to win the MAC this season.  

They are more than capable of hanging with a Boston College team that won't be putting their best foot forward this week.  They proven they could stop the run holding Toledo to 125 rushing yards on 42 carries for an average of 3.0 yards per carry.  And stopping the run against BC will be key as the Eagles are more of a one-dimensional running team.  Bet Western Kentucky Saturday.

20* VA Tech/Miami ESPN No-Brainer on Virginia Tech +19.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on Virginia Tech and 'sell high' on Miami.  Virginia Tech is 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS this season, while Miami is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS.  This line would have been less than 7 if it were played in Week 1, and because of results thus far it has been adjusted up way too much to 19.5 points here Friday night.

Virginia Tech had a lot of hype coming into the season about possibly being a sleeper to win the ACC after how strong them finished last season, plus the fact that they brought back 21 starters from that team.  They were upset 34-27 as 13-point favorites by Vanderbilt in the opener.  Vanderbilt went on to nearly upset Missouri, losing in OT on the road last week, so that loss doesn't look at bad now.

Last week, Virginia Tech lost 26-23 to Rutgers as 3-point home favorites.  Rutgers was coming off a bye week and had a big rest advantage.  Also, Rutgers looks like one of the most improved teams in the country this season with a 3-0 start and two other blowout victories.

Miami is getting a lot of credit for its 4-0 start this season against a very soft schedule.  The win over Florida in the opener doesn't look nearly as good now after Texas A&M crushed Florida as well.  They blew out Ball State and Florida A&M, and last week they were trailing 15-14 near halftime to USF before outscoring them 36-0 the rest of the way.  They were aided by an injury to USF QB Brown in the 2H, who means everything to their team.  

I'll gladly 'sell high' on the hype this week as this is the type of game Miami has had a letdown at home in the past under Mario Cristobal.  The Hurricanes lost outright as 20-point home favorites to Georgia Tech last year and needed OT to beat Virginia as 18-point favorites.  I think they'll get a much bigger fight than they bargained for in this one.  Each of the last four meetings were decided by 12 points or less, and VA Tech has only lost one if its last eight meetings with Miami by more than 18 points.  Bet Virginia Tech Friday.

20* Cowboys/Giants NFC East No-Brainer on OVER 44

Two of the worst defenses in the NFL square off Thursday night in this matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants.  Both offenses should have plenty of success in this one to get up and OVER 44 combined points, which is a very key number for NFL totals and I'm glad we got this one early.

The OVER is 3-0 in Dallas' three games this season.  They played in a 33-17 shootout with the Browns for 50 combined points in Week 1, a 44-19 shootout with the Saints for 63 combined points in Week 2, and a 28-25 shootout with the Ravens for 53 combined points in Week 3.  It should be more of the same here.

Those are three good defenses they faced and the Cowboys managed to average 25.7 points per game against them.  But they have allowed 372.7 yards per game, 6.2 yards per play and 29.7 points per game.  They are last in the NFL against the run allowing 185.7 rushing yards per game.

The Giants have an improved offense this season with a healthy Daniel Jones and a new favorite target in Malik Nabers, who has 23 receptions for 271 yards and 3 TD.  Wandale Robinson has been a nice compliment with 15 receptions for 123 yards and a score.  And Devin Singletary has rushed for 197 yards and 2 TD while averaging 4.7 per carry.  The Giants should be able to get what they want on the ground, which will open up their passing game.

The Giants allowed 28 points in three quarters to the Vikings in Week 1.  In Week 2, they didn't force a single punt against the Commanders and let them score on all seven of their drives.  Last week they were much better against the Browns as their defensive line took advantage of a banged up Browns offensive line that was missing several starters.  They won't have that luxury this week.

Both defenses are dealing with significant injuries.  The Giants will be without two starting CB's in Dru Phillips and Adoree Jackson, and they already had one of the worst secondary's in the NFL.  That's bad news for them up against the Cowboys, who rank 1st in passing at 269.7 yards per game.  The Cowboys are more of a one-dimensional offense without being able to run the football, and they will be trying to move it through the air.

Dak Prescott has owned the Giants scoring 35 or more points in six of the last 10 meetings.  They have averaged 33.3 points per game in their last 10 meetings.  They will do the heavy lifting for us, but the Giants should be able to keep up that is going to be without DT Jordan Phillips, S Marquese Bell and CB Caelen Carson.  They were already without CB DaRon Bland who has been on IR since the opener.  These are two horrid secondary's right now that will get exposed.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Army/Temple ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 45.5

For starters, games involving a service academy where both teams are on a short week are 14-3 OVER since 2018.  This trend makes sense because the opponent has less time to prepare for their triple-option and they aren't ready for it.  These games always tend to be more shootouts compared to these low totals for these service academy games.

Army is a wagon on offense this season behind one of the best triple-option QB's in program history in Bryson Dailey, who has rushed for 340 yards and 5 TD while throwing for 186 yards and 3 TD while averaging 9 yards per attempt.  He leads an Army offense that ranks 2nd in the country at 356 rushing yards per game.

That makes this a great matchup for this Army offense up against this Temple defense that allows 221.8 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry, ranking 124th in the country against the run.  Temple lost 38-11 to Navy three weeks ago and allowed 297 rushing yards to the Midshipmen.

But the biggest reason I'm on the OVER is the improvement of the Temple offense once they switched QB's to Evan Simon two games ago.  Simon is completing 65.4% of his passes with a 7-to-1 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 53 yards and a score.  He threw 5 touchdown passes in a 45-29 win over Utah State last week.  Simon and this Temple offense should be able to answer when Army scores almost every possession.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Commanders/Bengals ABC No-Brainer on OVER 47

The Washington Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team.  That was evident in Week 1 when they made Baker Mayfield look like Joe Montana in a 37-20 road loss.  Mayfield completed 24-of-30 passes for 289 yards and 4 TD in the win.

Last week, the Commanders made Daniel Jones look like a respectable QB.  The Giants scored three touchdowns on their defense, but unfortunately their kicker got hurt pregame and they failed on an XP followed by two missed 2-point conversions.  They were also forced to go for it on 4th down without a kicker.  They lost 21-18 to the Commanders.

Washington won that game despite not scoring an offensive TD.  In fact, the Commanders kicked 7 field goals, never had to punt and went 0-for-6 in the red zone.  Jayden Daniels moved the Commanders up and down the field and looks like the best rookie QB in this draft thus far.  He is completing 75.5% of his passes while also rushing for 132 yards and 2 TD through two games.

The Bengals got their offense going last week in a 26-25 loss to the Chiefs.  Now another reinforcement is on the way as WR Tee Higgins will make his season debut Monday night.  This is one of the best offenses in the NFL when Burrow, Chase and Higgins are on the field at the same time, and they should have their way with a Washington defense that will likely prove to be the worst in the NFL this season.

The Commanders are allowing 6.3 yards per play.  The Bengals are also down defensively this season especially with the loss of DT DJ Reader, who is one of the best run stuffers in the league.  This game has shootout written all over it.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Jaguars/Bills ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Jacksonville +6

We'll 'buy low' on the 0-2 Jacksonville Jaguars and 'sell high' on the 2-0 Buffalo Bills.  NFL teams that are 0-2 facing a team that is not 0-2 in Week 3 have gone 53-32-2 ATS over their last 87 tries.  This trend just goes to show that there is serious value backing this 0-2 teams.

The Jaguars are one of my favorite 0-2 teams to back this week.  They could easily be 2-0.  Travis Etienne fumbled going in for a TD that would have given them a 24-7 lead on the Dolphins in Week 1 and put that game away.  Instead, the Dolphins scored on an 80-yard bomb to Tyreke Hill on the next play for a 14-point swing.  The Dolphins went on to win 20-17 on a last-second FG.

Last week, the Jaguars lost 18-13 at home to the Browns.  They had the ball back with a chance to tie or take the lead but took a safety after a great punt to the 1-yard line.  They actually outgained the Browns 323 to 297 for the game and probably should have won that game as well.  They are the kings of one-possession games, so getting 6 points here is a great value.

The Bills beat the Cardinals 34-28 in Week 1 and crushed the Dolphins 31-10 in Week 2.  But that win over the Dolphins was pretty misleading considering Miami actually outgained them 351 to 247.  The Dolphins just gave it away with 3 interceptions by Tua Tagovailoa, who was eventually knocked out with a concussion.

Buffalo injuries are a big reason I am fading them this week.  They are going to be without LB Terrell Bernard and CB Taron Johnson, which are two of their best defenders.  They were already without LB Matt Milano.  The Jaguars should find plenty of success against a Bills defense that on paper looks as bad as they have had in the Sean McDermott era.  And I like this improved Jacksonville defense that actually one of the best pass rushes in the NFL this season.  This game is likely decided by a FG either way.  Bet the Jaguars Monday.

15* Ravens/Cowboys Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 47

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team.  The OVER is 4-0 in Cowboys last four games overall dating back to last season with 48 or more combined points in all four.  They went for 50 combined points against the Browns on the road in Week 1 and 63 combined points against the Saints in Week 2 at home.

The Baltimore Ravens also look like a dead nuts OVER team this season.  Their offense is loaded once again and players are used to Jeff Monken's systems in Year 2.  But their defense has taken a big step back since losing cooardinator Mike McDonald to the Seattle Seahawks.  Many believe he is the best defensive mind in the game.

The OVER is 2-0 in Ravens two games this season combining for 47 points with the Chiefs only after they had a TD called back on the final play of the game with Isaiah Likely's foot on the line.  They racked up 452 total yards on a very good Kansas City defense.  They combined for 49 points with the Raiders last week and had 383 total yards in that defeat.

It will be perfect conditions inside AT&T Stadium and the Cowboys are even more of an OVER team at home.  I think both offenses have their way against these two suspect defenses, and this total of 47 is too short.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Lions/Cardinals OVER 50.5

The Arizona Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL and one of the worst defenses.  We've seen that play out the first two weeks with a 34-28 loss to the Bills and a 41-10 win over the Rams that both flew over the total.

The Detroit Lions have a much better offense than they have shown thus far.  They keep shooting themselves in the foot, and that was definitely the case last week when they managed just 16 points against the Bucs despite 463 total yards.  They went 1-of-7 in the red zone, and that's not going to happen again.  This Detroit offense will get right this week against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in Arizona.

Detroit ranks 2nd in total offense while Arizona ranks 7th currently.  Both teams have had a ton of success on the ground and that will be the case again this week to open up the passing game.  Arizona is rushing for 177.5 yards per game and 5.5 per carry, while Detroit is rushing for 151 yards per game and 5.2 per carry.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Chargers/Steelers UNDER 37.5

The Los Angeles Chargers and Pittsburgh Steelers are both dead nuts UNDER teams.  Both are run-heavy offenses with two of the best defenses in the NFL.  The clock keeps moving with how much both teams like to run the football.

The Chargers are averaging 197.5 rushing yards per game but just 135 passing yards per game through two games.  The Steelers are averaging 260.5 total yards per game including 139 rushing and 121.5 passing.  These two offenses are setting football back years.

They can afford to be that bad on offense when you play defense like they do.  The Chargers are allowing 227.5 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play this season.  The Steelers are allowing 260.5 yards per game this season.  Both defenses are pretty healthy as well.

Los Angeles QB Justin Herbert suffered an ankle injury against the Panthers last week and his status is in question.  Also, one of his top receivers in Joshua Palmer is questionable as well.  Their offense will be handcuffed even more than it already is with a hobbled Herbert.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the four games involving these two teams this season with 32, 29, 28 and 19 combined points.  This total of 37.5 is too high for a game involving these two teams.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Eagles/Saints NFC ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans ML -125

Every year there is one team that comes out of nowhere to exceed expectations in a big way.  That team in 2024 is the New Orleans Saints.  It just took Klint Kubiak to get the most out of Derek Carr and this offense, and Carr has been unleashed this season under Kubiak's watch.

Amazingly, the Saints have actually scored points on each of their first 15 possessions this season on drives started by Carr.  They blasted the Panthers 47-10 in Week 1, and many just credited that to bad Carolina instead of good New Orleans.  What are they going to say now after the Saints blasted the Cowboys 44-19 on the road in Week 2?

Fans are more excited about this team than they have been since Drew Brees was still around contending for Super Bowls.  The lowest ticket price to get into this game Sunday is $162, and this will be their biggest and loudest crowd in a long time.  It's going to get back to being one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL.

While I am a believer in the Saints, I am pretty down on the Eagles as well.  I faded them with the Falcons +6 on Monday because they were going to be without AJ Brown.  Brown had 106 receptions for 1,456 yards and 7 TD last year, and he had 5 for 119 and a touchdown against the Packers in the opener.  He was out last week, and he's likely to be out again this week, and the Eagles just aren't that explosive without him.

Many expected this Philadelphia defense to be improved.  But that just hasn't been the case.  The Eagles rank 30th in total defense allowing 399.5 yards per game and 31st allowing 7.1 yards per play.  Now they must face a New Orleans offense that ranks 3rd in the NFL at 405.5 yards per game and 2nd at 7.0 yards per play.  I just don't see the Eagles getting enough stops to stay in this game.  Bet the Saints on the Money Line Sunday.

15* Texans/Vikings Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston ML -132

The Houston Texans are one of the most complete teams in the NFL.  They are 2-0 this season while the Minnesota Vikings are also 2-0.  But they aren't created equal.  Houston is the real contender between these teams, while I believe Minnesota is a pretender.

The Vikings beat the Giants 28-6 on the road in Week 1.  They came back and upset the 49ers 23-17 in Week 2.  That win over the 49ers sets them up for a letdown spot, and I just don't think they can overcome some key injuries to be able to beat this awesome Texans team this week.

WR Jordan Addison is out as is TE TJ Hockenson.  WR Justin Jefferson suffered a quad contusion that knocked him out of the 49ers game.  While he is expected to play this week, he won't be 100%. Sam Darnold is really running out of weapons in a hurry, and I just don't think he can keep pace with this high-octane Houston offense.

I think the fact that the Texans failed to cover the spread in their first two games is keeping this line shorter than it should be.  The Colts scored on a 4th down in the final seconds to lost 29-27 as 3-point dogs.  The Bears kicked a FG late to cover as 6.5-point dogs in a 19-13 defeat.  This was after the Texans fumbled on a 1st-and-goal from the 3 that would have put the game away.

Houston's numbers have been dominant.  They are averaging 363.5 yards per game on offense and allowing 254 yards per game on defense, outgaining opponents by over 109.5 yards per game.  I am really excited about their defense as they have one of the best pass-rushes and secondary's in the league.  They already have 9 sacks on the season.  Bet the Texans on the Money Line Sunday.

20* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH on Tennessee Titans -1.5

The Tennessee Titans are 0-2 but should be 2-0.  That 0-2 record has them undervalued, and I like backing 0-2 teams in Week 3 against a team that isn't also 0-2 because it has been very profitable over time, going 53-32-2 ATS in the last 87 tries.

The Titans didn't allow a single offensive TD in their 24-17 loss to the Bears in Week 1 and blew a 17-3 halftime lead.  They gave up a blocked punt that was returned for a TD, and Will Levis thew an inexplicable interception that was returned for a TD.

They had another punt blocked last week against the Jets in their 24-17 home loss.  Levis also committed another inexplicable turnover, trying to lateral the ball inside the New York 5-yard line that the Jets eventually recovered.

Levis has plenty of weapons with the additions of Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard to go along with DeAndre Hopkins and Tajae Spears.  The offense will be fine once he quits making boneheaded mistakes.

But the reason I love this Titans team is their defense, which ranks 1st in the NFL allowing 206.5 yards per game and 3.9 yards per play through two games.  They added some great pieces in the offseason including shutdown corner L'Jarius Sneed.  They have an elite secondary, and Jeffery Simmons remains one of the biggest game-wreckers in the league up front.

The Packers suffered a big blow when Jordan Love got hurt in the final seconds of a 34-29 loss to the Eagles in Brazil in Week 1.  Malik Willis, who was brought in from the Titans to replace him, had to start Week 2.

It was a perfect matchup for the Packers against an Indianapolis Colts team that has now allowed over 200 rushing yards in consecutive games.  The Colts are decimated on defense, and the Eagles clearly have some problems as well.  Anthony Richardson also gifted the Packers 3 interceptions.

This will be a big step up in class for Willis, and the Titans will force him to have to try and beat them through the air instead of on the ground.  Tennessee is only allowing 92.5 rushing yards per game.  

I think this line has remained so low this week not only because the Titans are 0-2, but also because Jordan Love returned to practice on a limited basis.  It is a complete smokescreen as there's less than a 10% chance Love returns this week.  He is more likely to return in Week 4 or Week 5.  They aren't in a hurry to rush him back either after stealing one from the Colts last week.  It might be a different story if they were 0-2 instead of 1-1.

The Titans know Willis' tendencies and that will be a big advantage for them.  I love the spot with their backs against the wall here against the Packers who will be starting the worst quarterback in the NFL this week.  Bet the Titans Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on Denver Broncos +7

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the 0-2 Denver Broncos and 'sell high' on the 2-0 Tampa Bay Bucs.  0-2 teams facing teams that aren't also 0-2 in Week 3 have gone 53-32-2 ATS in their last 85 tries.  I love this system for Week 3, and the Broncos fit it as good as anyone this week.

This is more a fade of the Bucs than a play on the Broncos.  This is the ultimate letdown spot for Tampa Bay.  They are going off a shocking 20-16 road win at Detroit as 7.5-point dogs.  They got their playoff revenge after getting knocked out by the Lions last year.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat the 0-2 Broncos this week, and they'll fall flat on their faces.

The Bucs had no business winning that game as the Lions outgained the Bucks 463 to 216, or by 247 total yards.  But the Lions went 1-of-7 scoring TD's in the red zone, and Jared Goff had a couple awful interceptions.  They let the Bucs off the hook by trying to pass too much.

This Tampa Bay defense is in shambles right now.  They are missing several starters in the secondary, they just lost their biggest run stuffer in DT Vita Vea, and they just lost one of their best pass rushers in DE Calijah Kancey.  This is one of the worst defenses in the NFL in their current form.

Rookie Bo Nix couldn't have faced two tougher defenses to start his NFL career.  He went on the road and lost 26-20 to the Seahawks, and last week he lost to the Steelers 13-6 at home.  It's safe to say Nix is in line for his best game of the season by far this week against this soft, banged-up Tampa Bay defense.  The Bucs have no business laying this big of a number given all their injuries, and in this clear letdown spot off the Detroit win last week.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

20* K-State/BYU ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on BYU +7.5

BYU gave Oklahoma and Oklahoma State all they wanted in their final two games last season.  They lost 31-24 as 25-point home dogs to Oklahoma and 40-34 as 16-point road dogs to Oklahoma State in double-OT.  It was a sign of things to come this season.

The Cougars brought back 14 starters and look like one of the most improved teams in this country thus far.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS beating Southern Illinois 41-13 as 16.5-point home favorites, upsetting SMU 18-15 as 12.5-point road underdogs and crushing Wyoming 34-14 as 9.5-point road favorites.

While the offense finished strong last year and is solid again, it's the improvements on defense that have really stood out.  The Cougars held SMU's high-powered offense to just 261 total yards and a paltry 3.6 yards per play.  They rank 12th in the country allowing 236.3 yards per game on the season and 12th at 3.8 yards per play thus far.

Kansas State had high expectations coming into the season with many picking them to win the Big 12.  With those expectations comes lines that are tough for them to live up to.  The Wildcats have no business being more than a touchdown road favorite here against this upstart BYU team.

We saw the Wildcats struggle in their lone road game this season against a rebuilding Tulane team with a new head coach.  They won 34-27 as 9.5-point road favorites, but they were very lucky to win that game.  They trailed 20-10 at halftime and got a 40-yard fumble recovery TD in the 4th quarter that was the difference.  Tulane actually outgained Kansas State 491 to 396 for the game, or by nearly 100 yards.

BYU has one of the best home-field advantages in the country when they are good, and fans are excited about this team after a 3-0 start.  It will be a raucous atmosphere Saturday night in Provo for this 10:30 EST start time.  Their home-field advantage is worth more than is being factored into this line.  This should be much closer to PK.  Bet BYU Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Louisiana-Monroe +45

Texas is the new No. 1 ranked team in the country after Georgia struggled to get by Kentucky last week.  The Longhorns are off to a 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start including a 31-12 road win at Michigan.  With that No. 1 ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers that are very tough to live up to.  The Longhorns shouldn't be laying 45 points to an upstart Louisiana-Monroe team Saturday.

The Longhorns avoided a letdown last week off the Michigan win with a 56-7 win over UTSA.  That's a UTSA team that is way down this season and one that lost 49-10 to Texas State the previous week.  Arch Manning came in for an injured Quinn Ewers and lit it up.  He threw 4 TD passes while also rushing for a 67-yard TD.

Fans and the media are praising Manning now as he will get the start in this game as Ewers recovers.  But what made Texas such a good bet to cover these big numbers was having Manning take over for Ewers late in blowouts and to keep piling on the points.  That won't be the case this week.

The Longhorns are much more concerned with just getting out of here with a win, and looking ahead to their SEC opener against Mississippi State next week.  They are excited about their first season as a member of the SEC and will be looking to prove themselves next week, not this week.  I think this is their flat spot, and they won't be looking to pile on the points late with their 3rd-sting QB.

Louisiana-Monroe has been impressive in its 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start.  They beat Jackson State 30-14 as 5.5-point home favorites in their opener.  Jackson State went on to beat Lane 58-7 and Southern 33-15.  They beat UAB 32-6 as 11-point home dogs in their second game of the season.  UAB went on to give Arkansas all they wanted in a 37-27 road loss as 22-point underdogs last week.

Meanwhile, ULM has had the last two weeks off after getting a bye to prepare to face Texas.  The Warhawks will be looking at this as their 'National Championship' game, and I look for them to give the Longhorns much more than they bargained for.  New head coach Bryant Vincent is doing a great job already in his first season turning the Warhawks into a ball control team that actually plays defense as they have allowed just 272.5 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  He brought in some great talent that is flying under the radar.

Speaking of ball control offense, ULM ranks 126th in the country in tempo with 31.2 seconds in between snaps.  They will slow this game down to a crawl, which will give them a better chance of covering this massive 45-point spread.  That will limit Texas' possessions and give them their best chance of being competitive.  Bet Louisiana-Monroe Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Akron +28.5

I love fading teams in South Carolina's situation this week.  They are coming off a gut-wrenching 36-33 home loss to LSU last week with ESPN's College GameDay in attendance.  It will be hard for them to get back up off the mat to face Akron this week, and they have Ole Miss on deck.  That makes this a massive sandwich spot for the Gamecocks stepping out of conference to face a MAC school sandwiched in between those two huge SEC games.

That's no two very physical games in a row against Kentucky and LSU for the Gamecocks.  They didn't come away unscathed as they lost their starting QB and will likely be starting a backup, but either way the Gamecocks aren't very good at the position.

This South Carolina offense leaves a lot to be desired.  They rank 114th at 312.7 yards per game and 112th at 4.9 yards per play.  They are averaging just 147.3 passing yards per game, which ranks 121st.  They had misleading wins over both Kentucky and Old Dominion.

Their 23-19 win over Old Dominion in the opener was very concerning.  Both of their touchdowns came after turnovers on drive starting inside the ODU 10-yard line.  They were outgained by the Monarchs in that game, and I think we see them struggle similarly against Akron this week given the terrible spot for them.

Akron actually held its own against Ohio State in the opener.  The Zips were only down 17-3 at halftime before Ohio State got two defensive touchdowns in the 2nd half to pull away.  They held Ohio State's high-powered offense to just 404 total yards.  They predictably struggled against Rutgers the next week as that's a brutal stretch of two physical Big Ten opponents.

The Zips came out flat in Week 3 falling behind Colgate 17-0.  But they dusted themselves off and outscored Colgate 31-3 the rest of the way.  QB Ben Finley was impressive with 358 passing yards and 4 TD and he is a Power-4 level QB after transferring in from NC State.  Joe Moorhead is in his 3rd season at Akron and has brought in some great recruits to make the Zips competitive.

Sure, Moorhead is just 4-20 in his first two seasons, but the Zips have been much more competitive than that record shows.  In fact, they 12 of those 20 losses have come by 11 points or less, they have just been unfortunate in close games.  They are one of the most undervalued teams in the country this season as a result.  Bet Akron Saturday.

15* Tennessee/Oklahoma ABC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 57.5

Tennessee has put up some of the best offensive numbers we've ever seen through three games.  The Volunteers are averaging 63.7 points per game, 639.3 yards per game and 8.1 yards per play.  This despite not getting tested and really not having to play with much tempo in the 2nd half of every game.

The Volunteers will get tested against Oklahoma, and they will have to put their foot on the gas for four quarters.  They have a Heisman Trophy contender in Nico Iamaleava at quarterback, a dual-threat who is completing 72% of his passes while averaging 6.0 per carry and he has yet to finish a game because of blowouts.  You know head coach Josh Heupel, the former Oklahoma offensive coordinator who didn't get the head job and was disgruntled because of it, will be looking to unleash him this week.

Oklahoma also has one of the best young quarterbacks in the country in Jackson Arnold.  He has done well this season despite injuries at WR and along the offensive line, which are two positions that should be healthier this week.  Arnold is completing 63% of his passes for 484 yards with a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also leading the team in rushing with 159 yards and 2 TD on the ground.

Arnold has formed a nice chemistry with Purdue transfer WR Deion Burks, who has 22 receptions for 169 yards and 3 TD.  At least one reinforcement is on the way as WR Nic Anderson is expected to make his season debut this week.  Anderson was electric as a freshman last season, catching 38 balls for 798 yards and 10 TD while averaging 21.0 yards per reception.  He will instantly stretch the field for this offense and make life much easier on Arnold this week.

Tennessee only ranks 47th in tempo this season at 25.6 seconds in between plays, but by the end of the season they should be closer to Top 10 in this category because they want to play fast and will be in much more competitive games. Oklahoma ranks 27th in tempo at 24.3 seconds in between plays and wants to play fast as well.  Neither defense has come close to seeing an offense as explosive as they one they will be trying to tame Saturday.  I expect a shootout in Norman today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Bowling Green +23

Bowling Green is one of the most underrated teams in the country this season and a legit contender to win the MAC.  Scot Loeffler enters his 6th season at Bowling Green coming off a 7-6 campaign.  He has 15 starters back from a team that finished very strong last year.

The Falcons went 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their final six MAC games last year with their lone loss coming against arguably the best team in the MAC in Toledo by a final of 32-31.  They also went on to lose to Big Ten foe Minnesota 30-24 in the Quick Lane Bowl.

The Falcons beat Fordham 41-17 as 15.5-point favorites in their opener.  Terion Stewart rushed for 161 yards and 3 touchdowns as the Falcons rushed for 303 yards as a team.  Stewart average 6.1 yards per carry last season.  QB Connor Bazelak is back as is leading receiver Harold Fannin.  And this Bowling Green defense is way underrated, allowing 24.0 points and 326 yards per game last season with seven starters back this season.  

The Falcons played Michigan tough last year in a 31-6 loss as 40-point road underdogs.  That's a Michigan team that went on to go 15-0 and win the National Championship.  I said the Falcons wouldn't be intimidated by Penn State in Week 2, and that proved to be the case.  They took the Nittany Lions to the wire in a 34-27 road loss as 34-point underdogs.

This despite not having Stewart at RB due to injury.  Bazelak did most of it with his arm with 254 passing yards and 2 TD while finding Fannin 11 times for 137 yards and a score.  Now Bowling Green has a bye week to get healthy, and they should have Stewart back this week and be fresh and ready to test themselves against an SEC opponent in Texas A&M.

This is a potential flat spot for the Aggies, who beat Florida 33-20 on the road last week, and now could get caught looking ahead to Arkansas next week.  This is a sandwich spot for the Aggies as they won't be nearly as excited to face Bowling Green as they were Florida or as they will be against Arkansas.  Just being a little flat will make it difficult for them to cover this lofty 23-point spread.  Bet Bowling Green Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Miami/South Florida OVER 65

These are two of the most explosive offenses in the country squaring off down in the heat in Tampa, Florida Saturday night and it will be a game filled with offensive fireworks.  I think the Bulls can go score for score with the Hurricanes in an absolute shootout.

South Florida ranks 6th in the country in tempo with just 21.9 seconds in between snaps thus far.  The Bulls returned 10 starts on offense from a unit that put up 31.9 points per game and 452 yards per game last season.  They are even better this season, hanging 48 points on Bethune-Cookman and 49 points on Southern Miss.  They only managed 16 points against Alabama, but they had their opportunities.

I love sophomore QB Byrum Brown, who completed 65% of his passes for 3,292 yards and a 26-to-11 TD INT ratio, while also rushing for 809 yards and 11 scores last year.  He is a dual-threat who is one of the best QB's in the country that not too many folks know about.

Miami's offense looks electric with the addition of QB Cam Ward from Washington State.  The Hurricanes hung 41 points on Florida, 56 on Florida A&M and 62 on Ball State in their first three games.  Ward is quickly climbing up the Heisman Trophy odds board completing 73% of his passes for 1,035 yards with an 11-to-1 TD/INT ratio through three games.

Miami hasn't been tested yet, so they haven't had to put the throttle down offensively.  They will have to try to go score for score with USF this week because the Bulls will be by far the best offense they have faced.  But they should have plenty of success against a USF defense that allowed 32.2 points per game last season, and while they may be improved this season, they don't get to see many offenses as good as this Miami unit.  They allowed 42 points to Alabama two games ago, and 24 points and 487 yards to a bad Southern Miss offense last week.  

South Florida and its opponents have combined for at least 62 points in 16 of their last 21 regular season games, including 65 points or more in 13 of those.  The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team with how fast they play, how efficient they are offensively and how poor they are defensively.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Miami/USF ESPN No-Brainer on South Florida +18

The South Florida Bulls are loaded this season with 18 returning starters for one of the best young coaches in college football in Alex Golesh.  He led the Bulls to a bowl game in his first season on the job last year with a 45-0 win over Syracuse in the Boca Raton Bowl.

Now the Bulls have been nothing short of impressive in their first three games this season.  They are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS with blowout wins over Bethune-Cookman 48-3 and Southern Miss 49-24.  It was impressive that they avoided the letdown last week with that 25-point win at USM as 13-point favorites.

They were coming off their deflating, misleading 42-16 loss at Alabama as 30.5-point dogs the previous week.  And they had this game against Miami on deck, making it a big sandwich spot.  They showed a lot of maturity last week, and they will be ready for their 'National Championship' at home against Miami this week.

The 42-16 loss to Alabama was much closer than the final score.  The Bulls had a chance to tie that game with just under 7 minutes left in the 4th quarter, but settled for a 22-yard FG instead of going for it on 4th and goal from the 5 when they were down 8.  The Crimson Tide managed to score 3 touchdowns in the final 6 minutes to turn a 21-16 game into a 42-16 game.  The Bulls let go of the rope after that short FG.  They actually had more first downs than Alabama and held them below 400 total yards.  It was the 2nd consecutive year they took the Crimson Tide to the wire.

No question Miami has been impressive this season.  But they have also benefited from a very soft schedule.  Their win over Florida in the opener doesn't look nearly as good now as the Gators look like one of the worst teams in the SEC.  They beat FCS Florida A&M 56-9 as 48-point favorites and Ball State 62-0 as 37-point favorites.  Ball State is a rebuilding team that only returned one starter on defense this season.

The Hurricanes will finally face a team with a pulse this week in South Florida.  I like this Miami team both offensively with Cam Ward and defensively with all their talent, but this is the type of game head coach Mario Cristobal could blow.  I don't trust him to make the right decisions as he has blown it time and time again as a head coach.  Miami has its ACC opener on deck against Virginia Tech on Friday and could get caught looking ahead to that game as well.  Bet South Florida Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on East Carolina/Liberty OVER 52.5

East Carolina is a dead nuts OVER team this season with their shift to an up-tempo, Air Raid offense.  They rank 5th in the country in tempo at 21 seconds in between snaps.  They haven't been as efficient as they'd like, but with three games now under their belts that should change moving forward.

I think we are getting great value on this OVER 52.5 because ECU has actually gone under the total in their first three games due to not turning their yardage into points and tempo into points.  They are putting up 432 yards per game with a balanced attack of 143 rushing yards per game and 289 passing yards per game.

Now they face an elite offense in Liberty that they are going to have to go score for score with in this one.  Liberty put up 38.3 points per game and 499 yards per game last season.  They brought back QB Kaidon Salter, who had a 32-to-6 TD/INT ratio last season while also rushing for 1,089 yards and 12 scores as one of the best dual-threats in the country.  RB Quinton Cooley is back after rushing for 1,401 yards and 16 TD last season.

The Flames have averaged 471 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play thus far in 2024.  They are coming off a low-scoring game against UTEP in which they took knees at the 1-yard line in the final seconds which is also adding to our value here on this OVER.  This is a great contrarian OVER game after the results from both teams last week with ECU playing a lower-scoring game against Appalachian State as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt +21.5

I think the Missouri Tigers are grossly overvalued after blowout wins and covers over a pair of cupcakes in Murray State 51-0 as 50.5-point favorites and Buffalo 38-0 as 32-point favorites.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Tigers after going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games dating back to last season.  They are starting to get too much respect from the books.

Missouri is the No. 7 ranked team in the country currently.  With that Top 10 ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers that are tough for them to live up to.  I took advantage and backed Boston College +17 last week in a 27-21 road loss to Missouri.  And I'll gladly fade the Tigers again with Vanderbilt +21.5 in their SEC opener against the Tigers this week.

Vanderbilt is clearly an improved team that brought back 15 starters this season.  They proved it with their 34-27 upset home win as 13-point underdogs to Virginia Tech in the opener.  That's a VA Tech team that many thought would contend for an ACC title because they finished strong last year and brought 21 starters from that team.  They still may very well contend for an ACC title.

The Commodores avoided the letdown in Week 2 with a 55-0 win over Alcorn State as 33.5-point favorites.  But the letdown came last week with their 36-32 outright loss to Georgia State as 8.5-point road favorites.  They were likely caught looking ahead to Missouri this week.  That result is providing us extra line value this week that we will take advantage of.  Had they beaten Georgia State, this line would likely be closer to 14 instead of 21.5.

Eight of the last 10 meetings were decided by 17 points or fewer, including 10 points or fewer in seven of those 10 meetings.  The Tigers will get more of a fight from the Commodores than they bargained for.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Navy +10

The Memphis Tigers were one of the top contenders to make the playoffs from the Group of 5 coming into the season.  They won the game they had to last week, upsetting Florida State on the road.  Now this is a clear flat spot for the Tigers off that big win against an ACC opponent.

But Florida State is no good this season, getting upset as double-digit favorites by both Georgia Tech and Boston College before getting upset as 6.5-point favorites against Memphis.  So let's not crown the Tigers just yet.  I wouldn't be surprise if they lose outright to Navy this week, and at the very least they should not be double-digit favorites given this obvious flat spot.

I also like what I've seen from Navy this season.  Brian Newberry stepped into a tough situation in his first season at Navy last year and held up well with a 5-7 record.  Now he has 14 starters back this season, which is a ton for a service academy.

Navy beat Bucknell 49-21 as 31.5-point favorites in the opener and crushed Temple 38-11 as 11.5-point favorites in Week 2.  Now the Midshipmen have had two full weeks to prepare for Memphis after receiving a bye last week.  That is another big advantage in their favor.

This Navy offense is really clicking with 280.5 rushing yards per game and 142.5 passing yards per game.  The catalyst is QB Blake Horvath, who has rushed for 155 yards and 3 scores while also throwing for 220 yards and 3 TD.  They key to these triple-option offenses is always the QB, and Navy looks to have a good one this season.

Memphis only beat Navy 28-24 as 11-point home favorites last season.  The Midshipmen outgained them by 24 yards and racked up 299 yards on the ground.  This Memphis defense is their weakness again and they can be had.  I think the Midshipmen keep this game close for four quarters with a great shot to pull off the upset in the end.  Bet Navy Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Army -5

The Army Black Knights went 6-6 last season but were not invited to a bowl for a 2nd consecutive season.  They were extremely motivated in the offseason because of it, and I think the Black Knights are a sleeping giant this season as a result.

This could be one of the best offenses of the Jeff Monken era in his 11th season on the job.  Eight starters return on offense this season including senior QB Bryson Daily.  He threw for 913 yards and 7 TD last season while also rushing for a team-high 901 yards and 7 scores.

Daily and the offense got going in a big way in a 42-7 win over Lehigh as a 32-point favorite in their opener.  They racked up 375 rushing yards including 78 and two touchdowns from Daily.  Army went on to upset Florida Atlanta 24-7 on the road in Week 2 while outgaining the Owls 449 to 235 in a dominant effort.

Keep in mind Florida Atlantic showed well in their other two games, making that win by Army look even more impressive.  FAU only lost 16-10 at Michigan State as 12-point dogs and topped Florida International 38-20 as 3.5-point home favorites.

Now Army is coming off a bye week giving them a full two weeks to prepare for Rice. The Owls made a bowl game each of the last two seasons, but it looks like head coach Mike Bloomgren has lost his touch this season.  The losses of QB JT Daniels and WR Luke McCaffrey have proven to be too much to overcome.

This Rice offense looks awful thus far to say the least.  The Owls lost 34-14 as 10-point home favorites to Sam Houston State, failing to cover by 30 points with just 274 total yards on offense.  Last week, the Owls lost 33-7 at Houston as 4.5-point dogs, failing to cover by 21.5 points.  They only managed 159 total yards against the Cougars.

I don't think Rice can keep up with Army this week.  The Owls allowed 237 rushing yards to Houston and 178 rushing yards to Sam Houston State.  Now they must face an Army rushing attack that will likely wind up being the best in the country.  They are averaging 390 rushing yards per game and 6.8 per carry thus far.  Bet Army Saturday. 

20* San Jose State/Washington State CFB Late-Night BAILOUT on San Jose State +14.5

San Jose State is one of the most underrated teams in the country going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season.  They beat a quality FCS team in Sacramento State 42-24 as 2.5-point favorites, upset Air Force 17-7 as 3-point road dogs and covered as 16.5-point home favorites in a 31-10 win over Kennesaw State.  Ken Niumatalolo found a good landing spot here at San Jose State because Brent Brennan did not leave the cupboard bare.

Washington State has been underrated up to this point as well going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS including upset wins over Texas Tech and Washington in their last two.  And that win over Washington in the Apple Cup last week is the reason I'm fading the Cougars here.  This is a clear letdown spot off their 'Super Bowl', and they won't care nearly as much about beating San Jose State this week as they cared about beating Washington last week.

It's also worth mentioning those were two misleading finals as well.  Texas Tech had 491 yards while Washington State had 416 yards, yet the Red Raiders lost by 21 due to committing 4 turnovers.  Washington lost 24-19 despite outgaining Washington State 452 to 381 for the game as well.  Those misleading finals have the Cougars way overvalued now.  We'll take advantage.  

San Jose State is allowing 248.3 yards per game and 3.5 yards per play while Washington State is allowing 464 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play this season.  I'll gladly back the better defense at a nice value here tonight.  Bet San Jose State Friday.

15* Illinois/Nebraska FOX ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 43.5

Both Illinois and Nebraska are dead nuts UNDER teams that rely on defense to win games and play at a very slow tempo.  Illinois ranks 122nd in the country at 30.3 seconds in between snaps, while Nebraska ranks 115th at 29.8 seconds.

Nebraska brought back eight starters from a unit that allowed just 18.3 points per game and 304 yards per game last season.  They are allowing 6.7 points per game, 255.3 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play this season despite facing two offensive-minded teams in Colorado and UTEP.

Illinois is allowing 8.7 points per game, 277.3 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play this season.  This despite facing two offensive-minded teams in Kansas and Central Michigan.  They held the Jayhawks to 17 points and the Chippewas to 9 points.

Nebraska and its opponents have combined for 47 or fewer points in 18 of its last 20 games overall, including 42 or fewer in 15 of those.  Illinois is 3-0 UNDER in all games this season with 45 or fewer combined points in all three, including 40 or fewer in the last two.  The UNDER is 2-0 in the two meetings over the last two seasons with 35 and 27 combined points.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Patriots/Jets AFC East No-Brainer on New York -6

The New York Jets needed some time to gel offensively with Aaron Rodgers.  They were a little out of sync in Week 1 and understandably so, losing 32-19 on the road to the San Francisco 49ers as 3.5-point dogs.  They have been undervalued since, and continue to be as only 6-point home favorites over the New England Patriots Thursday.

The Jets had a big second half offensively to pull away for a 24-17 win as 4-point road favorites at Tennessee.  Breece Hall scored on a 26-yard TD pass from Rodgers, and Rodgers made a great check at the line to spring Braelon Allen for the game-winning 20-yard TD run with under 5 minutes left in the 4th.

Now the Jets get to play in front of their home fans for the first time this season Thursday night.  It's safe to say it is going to be a madhouse as fans have waited two years to see Rodgers in person.  This will be one of the best home-field advantages of the entire season what the Patriots will have to go up against on the road Thursday night.

Everyone thought the Patriots would be the worst team in the NFL this season.  Instead, they upset the Bengals 16-10 in Week 1 and took Seattle to OT in a 23-20 home loss in Week 2.  Now the Patriots have to travel on a short week off that OT game, so they will be extra fatigued for this one.  They are overvalued after going 1-0-1 ATS thus far.  Teams off an OT game with 4 or less days' rest against team that's not also off an OT game are 3-23 ATS since 2002.

The Patriots are also dealing with a ton of injuries.  Four of their starting five offensive linemen are on the injury report.  They just lost MLB Ja'Whuan Bentley to a shoulder injury last week and that's a big blow, especially after losing Matthew Judon to the Falcons in the offseason.  The Jets did lose LB Jermaine Johnson last week, but CJ Mosley's injury was minor, and CB CJ Reed could return this week.

While both teams have pretty good defenses, there is a big discrepancy on offense.  The Patriots have arguably the worst offense in the NFL if it's not the Carolina Panthers, which is may not be now that Andy Dalton is starting.  The Patriots are a one-dimensional running team who are easy to stop.  They have no weapons outside, and QB Jacoby Brissett has only been looking at TE Hunter Hentry almost exclusively thus far.  He has 15 receptions and nobody else has more than 8 this season.

The Jets will get better every week offensively and will turn into a Top 10 offense in my opinion.  They are just too loaded everywhere not to be.  They had massive upgrades on their offensive line in the offseason, brought in WR Mike Williams to go along with Breece Hall, Allen Lazard and Garrett Wilson, and of course arguably the biggest upgrade at QB in NFL history.  The Jets should be at least 7-point home favorites today given all the advantages they have.  We'll take advantage and lay the 6 points.  Bet the Jets Thursday.

15* South Alabama/App State Sun Belt ANNIHILATOR on OVER 64

Two great offenses square off against two of the worst defenses in the country Thursday night in what should be a shootout in the Sun Belt.  The forecast looks good for a shootout as well with temps in the 60's, zero wind and only a small chance of rain.

South Alabama ranks 11th in the country at 512.3 yards per game and 10th at 7.7 yards per play.  New head coach Major Applewhite was their offensive coordinator last season and has another elite offense, but the defense is really hurting with the loss of defensive-minded Kenny Wommack, who left to become the defensive coordinator at Alabama.

The Jaguars only have three starters back on defense and lose six of their top seven tacklers.  Their defense allowed 52 points and 550 total yards to North Texas, and 27 points and 404 total yards to Ohio.

Appalachian State has scored at least 33 points per game in at least seven consecutive seasons.  They have another great offense this season led by senior QB Joey Aguilar, who had a 33-to-10 TD/INT ratio last season.  The Mountaineers are averaging 456 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season despite facing two good defenses in Clemson and East Carolina.  This will be their easiest test yet.

Appalachian State ranks 128th in the country allowing 7.0 yards per play this season.  They allowed 66 points to Clemson.  We have two offensive-minded head coaches that aren't that concerned with playing defense here tonight.  Plus, Appalachian State has a couple defensive starters that have to sit out the 1H due to targeting penalties.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Falcons/Eagles ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta +6

The Atlanta Falcons got a lot of hype coming into the season.  That led to them taking a lot of money in Week 1 as 4-point home favorites against the Pittsburgh Steelers.  They lost outright 18-10 despite holding the Steelers without a single touchdown.

The Steelers went on to beat the Broncos 13-6 on the road in Week 2 and clearly have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  It was a tough spot for Kirk Cousins in his return from an Achilles.  He looked a little hesitant which is to be expected with that much time off and thinking about the injury.

I expect Cousins and the Falcons to be much more comfortable in Week 2.  He is loaded with weapons on offense and playing behind one of the league's best O-Lines, plus the defense will be one of the most improved in the NFL with the additions of LB Judon and S Simmons just before the season.

The Eagles are actually in a bit of a tough spot returning home from Brazil following their 34-29 shootout win over the Green Bay Packers.  Their defense was their undoing last year, and it doesn't look much better this season already after allowing 29 points and 414 total yards to the Packers, including 163 rushing on 21 carries for an average of 7.8 yards per carry.  Bijan Robinson and the Falcons should have plenty of success on the ground in this one as well.

But one of the biggest reasons I'm on the Falcons is because the Eagles will be without their best offensive weapon in AJ Brown.  He was announced out on Sunday, and as soon as I saw the news I put in the Falcons +6.  Brown had 106 receptions for 1,456 yards and 7 TD last year, and he had 5 for 119 and a touchdown against the Packers in the opener.  

His loss is a huge blow because this Philadelphia offense was tough to tame with Brown, Smith and Barkley, but missing one of those three studs will make them much easier to defend.  This game will go down to the wire tonight, so catching 6 points is a very nice value.  Bet the Falcons Monday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Denver Broncos +3

I love the spot for the Denver Broncos and hate the spot for the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.  The Steelers will be playing their 2nd consecutive road game and will have to play in altitude in Denver, and I question how well they will handle it when it gets to the 4th quarter with poor conditioning this early in the season.

The Steelers are getting too much respect from the books off their upset win at Atlanta last week.  That was a rebuilding Falcons team with a new head coach, new coordinators and an aging QB in Kirk Cousins coming off an Achilles injury.

The Steelers managed to win that game 18-10 despite not scoring a single touchdown.  Fields did a good job of managing the game, and the Steelers relied on their defense, which is no doubt one of the best in the league.  But I think it was more about bad Falcons than good Steelers.  This is still one of the worst offenses in the NFL.

The Broncos were in a tough spot in Week 1 sending rookie Bo Nix into the 12th man to face the Seattle Seahawks.  Seattle has one of the best defenses in the NFL as well, so that will be good preparation for Nix this week.  He held it together well in a 26-20 loss, and he will be much more comfortable in front of his home fans this week.

The Broncos have a pretty good defense and one that will be able to contain Fields now that they have a week to prepare for him.  The Falcons didn't have that luxury last week as they prepared to face Russell Wilson.  Well, Wilson wasn't ruled out until Saturday, so the Falcons didn't have much time to prepare for the dual-threat in Fields.  They still managed to hold the Steelers without an offensive TD.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 7-0 SU in the last seven meetings.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Jacksonville Jaguars -3

Travis Etienne was going in for a TD that would have made it 24-7 Jaguars in the 3rd quarter against the Dolphins in Week 1 and put the game away.  Instead, he fumbled into the end zone, and the Dolphins scored on a 80-yard bomb on the next play that totally changed the game.  The Dolphins went on to win 20-17.

No question the Jaguars will be pissed off in practice all week and will be looking to take out their frustration on the Browns this week.  The Browns looked like one of the worst teams in the NFL in Week 1 in their 33-17 home loss to the Cowboys.  Deshaun Watson looks broken, the offensive line is banged up, they lost TE David Njoku to injury during the game, and they have other key injuries on defense.

Watson had one of the worst games by an NFL quarterback in years.  He went 26-of-45 passing for 169 yards with one TD and 2 INT.  He averaged just 3.8 yards per attempt and was sacked 6 times.  He is dealing with a ton of distractions right now with two tragedies plus another sexual assault allegation.  I think the team as a whole is just fed up with him right now to boot.

The Jaguars were on their way to winning the AFC South last season before Trevor Lawrence got hurt.  They made some great moves this offseason to upgrade their offensive line, the skill positions and the defensive line.  They were putting Tua under pressure all game, and they are a much better offensive team than they showed against the Dolphins.  I think Lawrence and company will score at will on a Cleveland defense that allowed more points per game on the road last season than any other team in the NFL.  I don't think Watson can keep up, especially since he'll be playing behind a banged up O-Line and without Njoku.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Seattle Seahawks -3

The New England Patriots were the consensus worst team in the NFL coming into the season.  But after upsetting the Cincinnati Bengals on the road last week, the Patriots are now getting some respect.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Patriots this week.

The Bengals are notorious for disappointing performances in Week 1.  It's because they don't take the preseason seriously and they are never ready.  They were without WR Tee Higgins, and WR Ja'Marr Chase is disgruntled without a new contract.  Joe Burrow is visibly injured as his wrist just isn't right.  And their defense is down a couple notches from a few years ago, especially since they lost run-stuffer DJ Reader, which allowed the Patriots to move the ball on the ground against them.  I think that 16-10 upset was way more bad Bengals than good Patriots.

The Patriots have the worst offense in the NFL.  They have the worst set of skill positions players, a shaky offensive line, and one of the worst QB situations since they are going with career backup Jacoby Brissett.  Brissett went 15-of-24 for 121 yards against the Bengals.  They rode Rhamondre Stevenson and his 120 rushing yards on 25 carrries.

The Seahawks brought in former Baltimore defensive coordinator Mike McDonald as their head coach.  He is one of the best defensive minds in the game, and the Seahawks are loaded on defense this season.  They aren't going to let Stevenson run wild on them like the Bengals did.  They are going to make Brissett try and beat them, and I don't think he can.

The Seahawks are loaded at the skill positions, and Geno Smith is more than just a game manager.  They will put up enough points to get us the cover as their defense comes close to pitching a shutout in this one.  The Seahawks held the Broncos to just 231 total yards and 3.3 yards per play last week.  This has the makings of a Top 5 defense.  Bet the Seahawks Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Giants/Commanders OVER 43.5

Two of the worst defenses in the NFL square off in Week 2 when the New York Giants visit the Washington Commanders.  I expect both offenses to get going this week after sub par performances in Week 1.  We are getting great value on the OVER 43.5 as a result, which is just below two very key numbers for NFL totals in 44 and 45.

The Giants made Sam Darnold look like Joe Montana last week. They scored 28 points in 3 quarters before calling off the dogs in a blowout.  Darnold went 19-of-24 passing for 208 yards and 2 TD against the Giants, who allowed 6.1 yards per play to the Vikings for the game.

The Commanders probably have the worst defense in the NFL.  They made Baker Mayfield look like Patrick Mahomes last week.  Mayfield completed 24-of-30 passes for 289 yards and 4 TD, while the Bucs also rushed for 112 yards in their 37-20 win over the Commanders.

Jayden Daniels and this Washington offense are going to improve rapidly under offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury.  Daniels is too good, and he is loaded with weapons this season.  Expect the breakout game to come for him here in Week 2.

Daniel Jones is undoubtedly one of the worst QB's in the NFL.  But he is better than he showed against the Vikings, who have one of the best defenses in the NFL under Brian Flores.  Jones got good news when it was announced Malik Nabers would be playing this week after an injury scare, and the rookie WR is in line for a big game against this awful Washington secondary.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Jets/Titans OVER 40.5

Aaron Rodgers looked pretty good all things considered in his first action since basically a year ago when he tore his Achilles in Week 1 last year.  He is playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the game, and he has some serious weapons in Wilson, Lazard, Williams and Hall.  This is a very low total for a game involving this kind of offense.

The Titans have one of the more underrated offenses in the NFL.  They have a good offensive line, and second-year QB Will Levis makes a lot of big plays but also a lot of mistakes, which is good for OVERS.  Levis has ample weapons with the additions of WR Calvin Ridley, WR Tahj Boyd and RB Tony Pollard.  Plus, DeAndre Hopkins should be much closer to full strength this week after he and Levis formed a great chemistry last year.

The Jets were gashed by the 49ers defensively with outside zone runs.  That is their weakness on defense, and I think the Titans can exploit it with Pollard and Tajae Spears.  Brian Callahan is one of the best O-Line coaches in the history of the NFL and will have this scheme ready to go after rushing for 140 yards on the Bears last week.

The Titans do have an improved defense this season, but a lot of their success last week had more to do with bad Bears than good Titans.  Rookie Caleb Williams was making his first start, and WR's Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen both got banged up.  I don't think the Titans will have close to as much success defensively against Rodgers and company this week.

This total is just below a very key number of 41 and we are getting great value on the OVER after both offenses were a bit sluggish against elite defenses last week.  Both offenses take a step down in class this week and should have more success.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Saints +7

Nobody wants to give the New Orleans Saints credit for their 47-10 win over the Carolina Panthers last week.  Nobody was talking about the Saints as serious contenders to win the NFC South, which is the worst division in football.  This team is flying under the radar to start the season.

Everyone wants to crown the Dallas Cowboys after going on the road and beating the Cleveland Browns 33-17 last week.  But that game was closer than the final score as the Cowboys only managed 265 total yards and 4.4 yards per play on offense.  Deshaun Watson was terrible and gifted the Cowboys the win, plus the Browns were dealing with a ton of injuries on the offensive line.

The Saints outgained the Panthers 379 to 193 and 6.1 yards per play to 3.5 yards per play.  Many thought the Panthers would be improved this season under new head coach Dave Canales, and most were on the Panthers last week because of it.  So to just dismiss this performance as the Panthers being bad rather than the Saints being good I think isn't doing the Saints justice.

New Orleans is one of the healthiest teams in the NFL to start the season.  They have arguably a Top 5 defense, and Derek Carr was flawless in his first start under new coordinator Klint Kubiak.  Carr completed 19-of-23 passes for 200 yards and 3 TD, and the Saints rushed for 180 yards as a team.

The Cowboys were already lacking offensive weapons outside CeeDee Lamb, and now they are going to be without TE Jake Ferguson, who suffered a knee injury against the Browns last week.  Ferguson is a security blanket for Dak Prescott and his loss is bigger than most recognize.  The Saints will be able to key in on Lamb even more now to try and take him away.

This line should be much closer to 3 than 7, so there's serious value on New Orleans this week.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 49ers/Vikings UNDER 45.5

Sam Darnold came over to the Minnesota Vikings from the San Francisco Giants.  He has the insight on how to stop Kyle Shanahan's offense to give to Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores.  Conversely, the 49ers have the insight on Darnold's strengths and weaknesses and will come up with the proper game plan to stop him.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and that familiarity for both teams will favor the UNDER.  Plus, the 49ers and Vikings squared off last season in October with the Vikings prevailing 22-17 for just 39 combined points with Kirk Cousins at quarterback.  It will be another defensive struggle in the rematch.

The Giants made Darnold look like Joe Montana last week.  They have an awful defense.  This is a big step up in class for this Minnesota offense taking on a San Francisco defense that is one of the best in the NFL.  The 49ers held the Jets to 19 points only after the Jets scored a meaningless TD in garbage time with 25 seconds left last week.  They also held the Jets to 266 total yards, with a large chunk of that coming in garbage time.

Making matters worse for Darnold is the fact that he will be without WR Jordan Addison, who came on strong last year in the absence of Justin Jefferson.  Addison re-injured his ankle that was giving him problems in training came against the Giants and has been ruled out.  The Vikings were already without stud TE TJ Hockenson.  Now the 49ers can focus in on stopping Jefferson because the Vikings just don't have many other weapons that can beat them.

Speaking of injuries, the 49ers will be without Christian McCaffrey again this week.  Jordan Mason played well in his place against the Jets, but no question McCaffrey adds a different dimension to this offense with his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.  Flores is one of the best defensive coordinators in the game, and I suspect he will come up with the right game plan to hold the 49ers in check.  He did last year limiting them to 17 points.  

The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 40 or fewer combined points in five of those six.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana -2.5

The Indiana Hoosiers are loaded this season under 1st-year head coach Curt Cignetti.  He led James Madison to a 19-4 record the last two years and he is going to turn around this Indiana program in a hurry.

Cignetti has 21 returning starters when you count all the transfers he brought in with him from James Madison and other schools.  The Hoosiers are off to a fast start beating Florida International 31-7 at home and Western Illinois 77-3 at home as a 45-point favorite.  That's a FIU team that went on to beat Central Michigan 52-16 last week.

QB Kurtis Roarke comes over from Ohio and has been impressive, completing 73.2% of his passes with a 3-to-0 TD/INT ratio.  The backfield is loaded with three RB's that have already topped 100 rushing yards.  The receiving room is loaded with JMU transfer Elijah Sarratt, Texas Tech transfer Myles Price and returnee Omar Cooper Jr., who have combined for 23 receptions for 392 yards and 2 TD.  The defense returns 11 starters and hasn't given up an inch.

So it's a team I'm very high on in Indiana up against a team I am very down on in UCLA, which will turn out to be on the worst Power 4 teams in the country this season.  Head coach Chip Kelly bolted for Ohio State, and a lot of their best players transferred out.  Plus they lost defensive coordinator Lynn to USC.

Former UCLA RB Deshaun Foster doesn't have any previous head coaching experience and steps into a very tough situation.  The Bruins only have 12 starters back and a ton of new faces.  They were far from impressive in their 16-13 win at Hawaii as 13.5-point favorites in their opener.  That's a Hawaii team that was in a 7-point game in the 4th quarter as 40.5-point home favorites against Delaware State the week prior.  They stand little chance of keeping this game competitive against the upstart Hoosiers.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Colorado/Colorado State UNDER 59

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  Colorado and Colorado State will be meeting for a 2nd consecutive season after Colorado's thrilling 43-35 (2 OT) win last year.  This was a 21-14 game in the 4th quarter with just 35 combined points.  It was tied at 28-28 at the end of regulation for 56 combined points.  I think the UNDER 59 has some value here in the rematch after going for just 56 at the end of regulation last year.

Colorado State is going to go with a run-heavy approach to try and take advantage of the interior of this Colorado defense.  Their strength is in their secondary.  The Rams are going to try and play a ball control game, which they practiced last week rushing for 224 yards in a 38-17 win over Northern Colorado after getting shut out 52-0 by Texas in the opener.

Colorado is a one-dimensional passing team with a terrible offensive line and zero threat of a rushing attack.  That makes them much easier to stop, and it keeps Shedeur Sanders under pressure all game.  That was the case last week as the Buffaloes rushed for just 16 yards on 22 carries against Nebraska, and Sanders was sacked 6 times in a 28-10 defeat.  Even in a shootout against North Dakota State in their opener it only saw 57 combined points in a 31-26 win by the Buffaloes.  Colorado rushed for 59 yards on 23 carries.

Colorado State has played in 8 consecutive games that saw 55 or fewer combined points dating back to last season, making for an 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 59-point total.  They have an underrated defense, and their offense is nowhere near the levels many expected it would be under Jay Norvell.  Five of Colorado's last seven games have seen 57 or fewer combined points as well.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Georgia/Kentucky ABC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 45.5

There is a decent chance of rain Saturday at Kentucky but we're not going to need it to cash this UNDER 45.5 ticket.  These are two of the slowest offenses in the country as Kentucky ranks 129th in seconds per play while Georgia ranks 125th.  Both teams like to slow it to a crawl and rely on defense.

Georgia has allowed a total of 6 points through two games against Clemson and Tennessee Tech.  They allowed 3 points to a Clemson team that just hung 66 on Appalachian State last week.  This Georgia defense may be the best in the country again.

Kentucky hangs its hat on defense every year because they always have a suspect offense.  That is the case again this season.  Kentucky beat Southern Miss 31-0 in the opener.  They managed just 317 total yards and held USM to 131 total yards.  Last week, Kentucky lost 31-6 at home to South Carolina.  The Wildcats managed just 183 total yards of offense while holding the Gamecocks to 252 total yards, but they had a defensive touchdown otherwise it would have been a 24-6 final.

Kentucky starting QB Vandagriff got hurt against South Carolina and may not go this week.  That would leave the QB duties to Wimsatt, the Rutgers transfer who started for them last year but was more of a runner than a passer.  The Wildcats may have to go 'wildcat' with Wimsatt, no pun intended.  There's a very good chance Georgia shuts them out, and I would be surprised if they topped 7 points in this one.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 17, 21, 22 and 43 combined points in the four games that went under the total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Colorado/Colorado State CBS No-Brainer on Colorado State +7.5

Colorado State gets to host Colorado on campus for the first time since 1996.  This is a massive deal for them, and adding to their motivation is that the Rams want revenge from a brutal 43-35 (2 OT) loss to Colorado last season after blowing an 11-point lead in the final 7 minutes of regulation.

Colorado State outgained Colorado 499 to 418 in that meeting last year.  QB Fowler-Nicolosi completed 34-of-47 passes for 367 yards and 3 TD and 3 INT in the loss, and he is back this season to redeem himself.  1st-Team All-MWC WR Tory Horton had 16 receptions for 133 yards and a score in the defeat, and he is back for revenge as well.

Jay Norvell has 14 starters in all back this season in Year 3, which is where coaches usually make their biggest leaps with their new programs.  The 52-0 loss to Texas in the opener was a setback, but Texas may be the best team in the country after beating Michigan 31-12 on the road last week.

The Rams bounced back with a 38-17 win over Northern Colorado last week.  They got their ground game going with 224 rushing yards and that will be an emphasis this week after watching Colorado get shredded on the ground thus far.

Colorado has two elite players in QB Shedeur Sanders and WR/CB Travis Hunter, but not much else.  Defense is a problem after allowing 34.8 points per game and 453 yards per game last season.  That defense wasn't much better in a 31-26 win over North Dakota State as 11.5-point favorites in the opener.  The Buffaloes allowed 449 total yards to the Bison, who aren't as strong as they normally are in the FCS after losing their head coach to USC and a All-American safety to injury.

Colorado then went on to fall behind 28-0 at halftime to Nebraska last week before the Huskers called off the dogs in the second half.  The Buffaloes managed just 16 rushing yards on 24 carries, and Sanders was sacked 6 times and under duress the entire game behind a shotty Colorado offensive line.  The Buffaloes are terrible up front on offense and on defense, and that is going to be their undoing again this week as well.  

Sanders threw his O-Line under the bus and I question how badly they want to have his back this week.  This team has no business being more than a TD road favorite against a Colorado State team that is going to play the little brother roll and want it more.  This is a game I fully expect the Rams to win outright.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on UTSA +36

It's a great time to 'buy low' on UTSA and 'sell high' on Texas.  UTSA is 1-1 SU & 0-2 ATS while Texas is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS.  The Longhorns are coming off a huge 31-12 win at Michigan to prove they are playoff contenders once again.  That makes this a letdown spot for them as they return home to face UTSA.

The Roadrunners are coming off a 49-10 loss at Texas State on the road.  While concerning, I believe Texas State is a serious contender to represent the Group of 5 in the college football playoff.  It wasn't as big of a blowout as the final score as the Roadrunners were outgained by 186 yards.

UTSA was the favorite to win the AAC coming into the season with 14 starters back from a team that went 9-4 last season.  There were some big losses at QB and WR, but the Miners are much better than they have shown thus far.  Plus, Jeff Traylor is one of the best head coaches in the country and won't let his team pack it in.  Of course, it won't be hard to get up to face Texas this week, and they may have been looking ahead to this game.

This line would have been less than 4 touchdowns if it had been played in Week 1.  Instead, we are getting about 10 points of value here on UTSA +36 due to what we have seen thus far from both of these teams.  I know we'll get a big effort from the Roadrunners, and if Texas brings anything less than its 'A-game', it will not cover this inflated number.  Bet UTSA Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on East Carolina +2.5

East Carolina head coach Mike Houston has been here before.  Not much is expected of the Pirates this season off a 2-10 campaign last year where just 10 starters returned from a team that finished 8-5 and was one of the program's best.

Now Houston is hungry to get back to that level and has 14 starters returning and a great recruiting class coming in.  The Pirates have been mighty impressive in their 2-0 start this season, and this is one of the better home-field advantages in the country in Greenville when this team is good.

It started with a 42-3 win as 31-point favorites over Norfolk State in Week 1.  Then last week the Pirates went on the road and upset Old Dominion 20-14 as 1.5-point dogs.  That's the same Old Dominion team that nearly upset South Carolina on the road in a 23-19 defeat that saw the Gamecocks score both of their touchdowns off ODU turnovers inside their own 10-yard line.  South Carolina went on to beat Kentucky 31-6 on the road last week, making that win over ODU look even more impressive.

It was also a bigger blowout than the 20-14 final would indicate.  ECU outgained ODU 466 to 287, or 179 total yards.  They overcame 4 INT from Jake Garcia.  He will be much more comfortable at home, where he threw for 308 yards and 4 TD against Norfolk State in the opener.

Appalachian State was among the favorites to win the Sun Belt this season, but I'm not buying it with what I've seen them them thus far.  They failed to cover in a 38-10 win over East Tennessee State as 32.5-point favorites in their opener.  And last week they were blasted 66-20 by Clemson as 17-point dogs, which is the same Clemson offense that managed just 3 points against Georgia.

It's safe to say this Appalachian State defense will be the worst unit on the field Saturday.  You could see it coming at the end of last season as the Mountaineers allowed 49 points to Troy in the Sun Belt Championship Game.  Clemson had 56 points by halftime!  They racked up 712 total yards on this soft Appalachian State defense.  Garcia and company can name their number in this one.  Wrong team favored.  Bet East Carolina Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on App State/ECU OVER 60

East Carolina has switched its offense into an up-tempo, air raid this season.  The Pirates rank 9th in seconds per play and now face a Appalachian State team that also likes to play up-tempo, ranking 30th in seconds per play.  This has the makings of a shootout today folks.

It's safe to say this Appalachian State defense will be the worst unit on the field Saturday.  You could see it coming at the end of last season as the Mountaineers allowed 49 points to Troy in the Sun Belt Championship Game.  Clemson had 56 points by halftime in their 66-20 win last week that saw 86 combined points.  The Tigers racked up 712 total yards on this soft Appalachian State defense.

East Carolina QB Jeff Garcia is making plays but he is also making a lot of mistakes, which could lead to easy points for the Mountaineers.  Garcia is completing 65% of his passes with a 4-to-7 TD/INT ratio with 591 yard and 8.0 per attempt.  No question this ECU offense is explosive and can pretty much name their number on this Appalachian State defense.

The strength of the Mountaineers is their offense and it may be the best unit on the field Saturday.  Senior QB Joey Aguilar returns after completing 63.8% of his passes for 3,757 yards with a 33-to-10 TD/INT ratio last season.  He has each of his top four receivers back as well, so there is some chemistry here.  The Mountaineers have averaged at least 33 points per game in at least seven consecutive seasons.

These teams played in a shootout last season as Appalachian State won 43-28 for 71 combined points.  It will be more of the same in the rematch, especially with the Pirates going to the new up-tempo offense this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.