20* Seahawks/Giants NFC No-Brainer on UNDER 48

Night game UNDERS are 148-97-3 (60.4%) since 2019.  Night game UNDERS are 9-2 to start this season heading into Week 4.  This total is too high for a game involving the New York Giants, who have a solid defense but a terrible offense, especially without their best offensive player in Saquon Barkley.

The Giants were shut out in the opener by the Cowboys and managed just 171 total yards.  You can throw out the Arizona game because Arizona's defense is terrible, and they had Barkley for the entire game.  And last week they managed just 12 points and 150 total yards against the 49ers.  Again, this total is too high for a game involving this Giants offense.

No question the Seahawks have put up great offensive numbers the last two weeks against Detroit and Carolina, which is inflating this total.  But both of those teams were missing key players defensively.  They managed just 13 points and 180 total yards against the Rams in Week 1.  This is a much better, hungrier Giants defense they will be up against Monday night.

The Seahawks are better defensively than they have shown thus far.  Being without both SS Jamal Adams and CB Riq Woolen is a big reason why they have struggled.  Both are expected back this week, which is a huge help to the defense.  Adams is the leader of this defense and hasn't played yet this year.  Having him back will be a game changer for them.  Also, taking a step down in class here against this Giants offense will help as well.

These teams met last year with the Seahawks winning 27-13 for just 40 combined points.  Pete Carroll is 15-5 UNDER after scoring 30 points or more in two consecutive games as the coach of Seattle.  The Giants are 9-1 UNDER in their last 10 games as home underdogs.  New York is 6-0 UNDER in its last six home games following an ATS loss.  Seattle is 16-5 UNDER in its last 21 road games vs. poor offensive teams that average 4.75 or fewer yards per play.  The UNDER is 16-4-2 in Giants last 22 home games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Cardinals/49ers OVER 44

Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers are rolling on offense once again this season.  They have scored at least 30 points in each of their first three games this season and I expect them to make it four straight against the lowly Arizona Cardinals to pave the way for us to cash this OVER 44 ticket.  They are also averaging 399 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season and have been able to take their foot off the gas in the second half as well, or the numbers could be even better.

I don't expect them to take the Cardinals lightly or take their foot off the gas this week.  The 49ers have extra rest after playing last Thursday, and they just saw the Cardinals upset the Cowboys last week in a fluky result in which the Cowboys went 1-for-5 in the red zone.  It was still good enough for me to cash my OVER 43 ticket in that game as the Cardinals won 28-16, but there should have been more points from the Cowboys.

The Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have a terrible defense that allowed 31 points to the Giants the week prior.  The Giants were shut out by the Cowboys and managed just 12 points against the 49ers in their other two games just to show how bad this Arizona defense is.  Dallas had 416 total yards on the Cardinals last week but only 16 points because of those red zone woes.

While the 49ers will be able to name their number on this soft, banged-up Arizona defense, I do expect the Cardinals to be able to score some points on this San Francisco defense.  This is an underrated Arizona offense that put up 28 points on the Giants and another 28 on the Cowboys the last two weeks.  They also had 379 yards on the Giants and 400 yards on the Cowboys.  

Josh Dobbs is elusive and has good weapons, and this offensive line is playing well behind him, especially in the running game paving the way for 151 yards on the ground against the Giants and 222 yards on the ground against the Cowboys.  The 49ers haven't had to face a very mobile QB yet as they faced Kenny Pickett, Matt Stafford and Daniel Jones, and they haven't faced a good rushing attack either, which has allowed them to pin their ears back and get after the QB.  They will have to respect Arizona's running game, which should open things up for Dobbs in the passing game.

The last three meetings in this series were all shootouts that topped this 44-point total.  The 49ers won 38-13 for 51 combined points, 38-10 for 43 combined points and were upset 31-17 for 48 combined points in their first game against Arizona last year.  But Brock Purdy didn't play in those first two games, and he threw 3 TD in the most recent meeting.  Arizona started played David Blough/McSorley in the most recent meeting, Colt McCoy/McSorley in the second and McCoy in the first.  So the 49ers haven't had to face a QB as good as Dobbs in any of their last three meetings with the Cardinals.  I expect Arizona to get 14-plus in this one.

These teams have combined for at least 44 points in six of the last eight meetings and it should be more of the same here in their first meeting of 2023. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Dolphins/Bills OVER 53.5

The Miami Dolphins are a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They beat the Chargers 36-34 in the opener for 70 combined points.  In Week 2 they beat the Patriots 24-17 in sloppy conditions in a slow-paced game.  And last week they hung a 70-spot on the Broncos in a 70-20 victory for 90 combined points.  They didn't even have Jaylen Waddle last week, and he is expected to return this week to give the Dolphins the best 1-2 punch in the league at receiver with him and Tyreke Hill.

This is actually a pretty low total for a game involving the Dolphins.  They have the best offense in the NFL and a bad defense.  The Bills appear to have a good defense, but keep in mind they have played an easy schedule of opposing offenses and quarterbacks.  They faced Zach Wilson and the Jets in Week 1, Jimmy G and the Raiders in Week 2 and Sam Howell and the Commanders in Week 3.

This is a big step up in class for this Buffalo defense, which is missing Von Miller and will get exposed this week.  S Jordan Poyer, S Micah Hyde and DE Leonard Floyd all missed practice Wednesday and are all questionable to play this week as well.  The Bills aren't going to stop the Dolphins, but they can match them score for score with their potent offense.

After being held in check in Week 1 by the Jets, who always have a good game plan for them, the Bills' true offensive colors have shown the past two weeks.  They hung 38 points on the Raiders with 183 rushing and 267 passing yards, and last week they hung 37 points on the Commanders with 168 rushing and 218 passing.  They finally appear to have a very good rushing attack this season to compliment Josh Allen and the passing game.

The last two meetings in Buffalo were absolute shootouts.  Buffalo won 32-29 in the regular season finale for 61 combined points and put up 446 total yards on the Dolphins, who came through with 405 themselves in a game started and finished by Tua.  But Tua was hurt in the matchup in the playoffs, and it was still a shootout in a 34-31 victory by the Bills, who had 423 total yards on the Dolphins.  They clearly have this Miami defense figured out as they went for 497 total yards on the Dolphins on the road last season as well.

Conditions look perfect in Buffalo for a shootout Sunday afternoon with temps in the 70's and only 6 MPH winds at Highmark Stadium.  Miami is 18-6 OVER in its last 24 road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 285 or fewer yards per game.  Sean McDermott is 12-3 OVER in home games after allowing 150 or fewer passing yards last game as the coach of Buffalo.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Falcons/Jaguars NFL London No-Brainer on Jacksonville -3

This feels like a great spot to back the Jacksonville Jaguars this week.  They are coming off two consecutive losses, so they will be focused and ready to go in London.  I also like the fact that they play in London every year, so this is essentially a home game for them.  Fans have adopted this team like their own so it will feel like a home game as well.

The Jaguars were beaten by the Chiefs 17-9 at home two weeks ago.  They just failed in the red zone time after time and couldn't get anything going.  But last week's 20-point home loss to Houston provides us with an opportunity to 'buy low' on the Jaguars this week.  Now everyone is writing them off, which is exactly the time I like to back teams in the NFL.

Especially teams like the Jaguars who have a lot of talent and are better than the last score showed.  The 20-point loss to Houston was very misleading.  They actually outgained the Texans by 38 yards and had 404 total yards of offense, but only 17 points to show for it.  They gave up an 85-yard kickoff return for a touchdown to a fullback, which was absolutely insane.

Now the Jaguars get to face the Falcons, who are overvalued due to their 2-1 start this season.  They beat the Panthers in the opener, who look like one of the worst teams in the NFL.  They came back from 12 points down in the 4th quarter to beat the Packers at home in Week 2.  The Packers were missing several key players in that game.  Then in their first road game of the season, the Falcons were blasted 20-6 on the road by the Lions.

There was nothing misleading about that loss to the Lions.  They were outgained by 175 yards by the Lions.  Their offense was held to just 183 total yards and 2.8 yards per play.  They are a one-dimensional running team with arguably the worst QB situation in the entire league with Desmond Ridder.  He is averaging just 6.3 yards per attempt this season with two touchdowns and one interception.  He just doesn't threaten opposing defenses with the downfield passes.

That makes this a great matchup for the Jaguars.  While they have been susceptible against the pass defensively this season, they have been great against the run.  The Jaguars are only allowing 84 rushing yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry this season.  They will be able to bottle up the run just like Detroit did, and that will be the key to them getting the win and cover here against the Falcons.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday morning.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa State +20.5

The Oklahoma Sooners are overvalued now after a 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start this season.  They had no business covering two of those games.  They only led SMU 14-11 as 16-point favorites with with under 10 minutes left but scored two more touchdowns to win 28-11.  They were actually outgained by SMU.  SMU lost 34-17 at TCU last week.

Then last week Oklahoma beat Cincinnati 20-6 as 13-point road favorites.  That was another big misleading final as Cincinnati turned it over twice in the red zone.  They only outgained Cincinnati by 49 yards and gave up 376 yards to a bad Bearcats offense.  I do think their defensive is improved, but their offense isn't as good as the numbers because they padded their stats against Tulsa and Arkansas State, but struggled to score against SMU and Cincinnati.

Not only are the Sooners overvalued, but they have their biggest game of the season on deck against Texas in the Red River Rivalry that will go a long way in determining not only if they win the Big 12, but also if they can contend for a national title.  This is a sandwich spot coming off a big road win at Cincinnati in their Big 12 opener as well.  They probably just think they have to show up to win against Iowa State.

That won't be the case.  Iowa State could easily be 4-0 this season when you look at the box scores of their games, but they are 2-2 and undervalued as a result.  This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Cyclones.  They have allowed 21 or fewer points per game in three consecutive seasons now and have another elite defense this season, allowing just 16.5 points per game, 299 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play through three games.  Their defense could be the best unit on the field Saturday.

The reason the Cyclones could be 4-0 is because they outgained Iowa 290 to 235 and had 19 first downs compared to just 9 for Iowa.  The only difference was Iowa getting a pick 6 and Iowa State missing a short field goal in a 20-13 defeat.  But Iowa always seems to get a defensive or special teams touchdown against them every year and it's always the difference in a close game.

Iowa State outgained Ohio 271 to 247 for the game but lost the turnover battle 2-0 in a 10-7 defeat.  One was a deflected pass.  I thought QB Becht played well in that game for the Cyclones, going 17-of-24 passing for 233 yards with a touchdown and those two interceptions, while also rushing for 31 yards on nine carries.  Keep in mind Ohio is one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country and Iowa State was only a 3-point favorite.

Then last week I backed Iowa State -2.5 in a 34-27 win over Oklahoma State.  I liked what I saw from their offense as they abandoned the running game early, spread their receivers out with less two TE sets, and let Becht go to work.  It worked as Becht had his best game of the season, completing 27 of 38 passes for 348 yards and 3 touchdowns without an interception.  It also opened up the running game in the second half for them to salt the game away.  The change of offensive philosophy is a big reason I'm 'buying' on the Cyclones moving forward.  They are great in pass protection as Becht has only been sacked once all season, so they are playing to their strengths.

Nobody has played Oklahoma tougher than Iowa State in recent meetings.  In fact, each of the last eight meetings have been decided by 14 points or less, which makes for a perfect 8-0 system backing the Cyclones pertaining to this 20.5-point spread.  And even that 14-point loss last year was very misleading.  Iowa State actually outgained Oklahoma 374 to 332 for the game.  They have outgained Oklahoma in four consecutive meetings, and haven't been outgained by more than 72 yards in any of their last seven meetings.  

Matt Campbell is 12-3 ATS as a double-digit underdog as the coach of Iowa State, including 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 17 points or more.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia State -1

Everyone keeps sleeping on Georgia State.  I backed them heavily as 7-point road dogs at Coastal Carolina last week and they delivered with a 30-17 victory.  I'll back them again here as they should be much more than 1-point favorites against Troy.

Georgia State is 4-0 this season going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games, beating UConn by 21 at home, Charlotte by 16 on the road and Coastal by 30 on the road.  Charlotte only lost by 15 at Florida and Coastal only lost by 14 at UCLA.  So those wins have more credence now than they did before.

Georgia State's offense has tremendous balance averaging 37.0 points per game, 196 rushing yards per game and 248 passing yards per game.  They have one of the best QB's in the Sun Belt in Darren Grainger, who is completing 70% of his passes for 994 yards with a 7-to-0 TD/INT ratio and 9.5 per attempt.  Grainger is a dual-threat who has rushed for 263 yards, 3 TD and 5.6 per carry.

I love the spot for Georgia State, too.  They have two extra days of rest coming into this one after playing last Thursday.  This is a night game at 7:00 EST and fans are getting behind this team knowing they have a real shot of winning the Sun Belt and doing big things this year.  Plus, there will be no letdown facing the defending Sun Belt champs in Troy.  They will be max-motivated and give their best effort.

Troy has been overvalued since winning the Sun Belt last year.  They brought back just 12 starters from that team and lost a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, especially defensively.  Troy gave up 30 points to Stephen F. Austin as a 25.5-point favorite in the opener.  Troy gave up 42 points at Kansas State in a 29-point loss.  They are now 0-4 ATS this season and getting way too much respect from the books again this week.

Georgia State is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games after going under the total in their previous game.  Shawn Elliott is 9-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of Georgia State.  Elliott is 12-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of Georgia State.  He is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  Bet Georgia State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Hawaii +11.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on UNLV after a 3-1 start to the season.  The win over UTEP last week doesn't look very good now as UTEP has been one of the most disappointing teams in the country.  The 44-14 win over Bryant in the opener was very misleading as they were actually outgained by 15 yards by Bryant.

These teams have a common opponent in Vanderbilt.  UNLV beat Vanderbilt 40-37 at home and took advantage of four turnovers by the Commodores and getting outgained by 17 yards.  Meanwhile, Hawaii lost 35-28 on the road to Vanderbilt and should have won that game outright.  Hawaii outgained Vanderbilt by 94 yards in that game and held them to just 297 total yards.

This has been a very closely-contested series, so I'm more than happy to take double-digits with the Rainbow Warriors.  Only twice in the last 11 meetings has Hawaii lost by more than 8 points to UNLV.  The Rebels are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 home games after winning two of their last three games coming in.  The Rainbow Warriors are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a game where they forced one or fewer turnovers.

Plays on road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Hawaii) - off two or more consecutive unders who are also outscored by 7 or more points per game on the season are 36-9 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on New Mexico +14

Wyoming is off to a surprising 3-1 start this season.  But the Cowboys should be 1-3 when you dive into the box scores a little deeper, and they just haven't been that good.  This fraudulent 3-1 record has Wyoming laying more points to New Mexico today than they should be.

Wyoming beat Texas Tech 35-33 (OT) in the opener despite being down 17-0 and getting outgained by 111 yards.  They only managed 320 yards on offense.  They had a bit of a letdown the next week against Portland State, winning 31-17 as 28-point favorites despite getting outgained by 27 yards and being held to 344 total yards.  They were held to 291 yards in their 31-10 loss to Texas.  And last week was the most misleading of all, beating Appalachian State 22-19 despite being held to 208 total yards and getting outgained by 209 yards.

As you can see, Wyoming has a terrible offense again this season averaging just 297.5 yards per game. That woeful offense makes it very difficult for them to cover these lofty spreads as favorites.  The Cowboys are much better in the underdog role than they are in the favorite role, especially in the big favorite role.

New Mexico has the best offense they have had in years.  They are scoring 29.3 points per game and averaging 384.5 yards per game this season.  They have opened 2-2 with wins over Tennessee Tech and UMass and losses to Texas A&M and New Mexico State, but they were very competitive against NMSU with 401 yards on offense compared to 397 for NMSU.

The Cowboys were flat against Portland State after beating Texas Tech.  I think they'll be flat again today after beating Appalachian State and with MWC defending champ Fresno State on deck next week.  That makes this a sandwich spot for them.  New Mexico has a bye on deck next week, so they will be 'all in' for this one.  Each of the last four meetings in this series have been decided by 13 points or less.  Bet New Mexico Saturday.

15* CFB TOTAL OF THE DAY on New Mexico/Wyoming UNDER 42.5

There are expected to be 15-20 MPH winds at Wyoming today that will help aid us in cashing this UNDER 42.5 ticket.  These are two teams with bad offenses and good defenses, which is the case every year in this rivalry.  That's why these games tend to go UNDER the total when they get together.

Indeed, the UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between Wyoming and New Mexico, but would be 5-0 with a 42.5-point total.  They have combined for 41, 17, 33, 33 and 34 points in their last five meetings, respectively.

Wyoming plays slow ranking 117th out of 133 teams in seconds per play at 29.0 seconds in between plays.  New Mexico ranks 111th at 28.7 seconds in between offensive snaps.  This game will be played at a snail's pace, which also bodes well for the UNDER in limiting possessions.

Wyoming is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine games following a win.  New Mexico is 6-0 UNDER in its last six road games after going over the total in its previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Kansas/Texas Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas +17

Texas is overvalued after a 4-0 start that included an upset win at Alabama.  Turns out Alabama isn't that good this year as they only beat South Florida 17-3.  We saw Texas overvalued in the opener against Rice in a 37-10 win as 35.5-point favorites.  We backed Rice and then Wyoming +30 off the Alabama win.  That was a 10-10 game in the 4th quarter before Texas pulled away for a misleading 31-10 victory.

Admittedly, I was wrong last week in backing Baylor against Texas.  But that 38-6 final was very misleading.  Baylor actually threw for 305 yards on Texas and should have scored more than 6 points.  That misleading final is providing us line value on Kansas this week.

But the biggest reason I'm fading Texas this week is because they have their biggest game of the season on deck against Oklahoma.  That Red River Rivalry will likely determine which team is the favorite to win not only the Big 12, but to also compete for a national title.  The Longhorns could easily be caught overlooking Kansas and looking ahead to Oklahoma, especially after burying Kansas on the road last year.

But that was a rare easy win for Texas in this series.  Kansas pulled the 57-56 upset win as 31-point dogs in 2021, only lost 50-48 as 21-point road dogs in 2019, lost 24-17 as 16-point dogs in 2018, lost 42-27 as 31.5-point dogs in 2017 and won 24-21 as 23.5-point dogs in 2016.  As you can see, five of the last six meetings were decided by 15 points or less, so we are getting great value here on Kansas +17 given the awful spot for Texas.

Plus, this is the best team Kansas has had this century.  Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in college football.  Getting Kansas to a bowl last year was a monumental feat, and now the Jayhawks are hungry for more.  They have opened 4-0 this season with a 31-point win over Missouri State, an 11-point win over Illinois, a 7-point win at Nevada and an 11-point win over BYU.  Leipold brought back 17 starters this season including a healthy QB in Jalon Daniels, who is completing 74.7% of his passes and is a great dual-threat.

Texas is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games the week before Oklahoma. Texas 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as a double-digit conference favorite.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* Houston/Texas Tech Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Houston +10.5

This is the Donovan Smith revenge game.  He was replaced at QB at Texas Tech by Tyler Shough last year.  Well, Shough just suffered a broken fibula last week in a 20-13 loss at Virginia Tech.  Backup QB Behren Morton was atrocious against WVU, completing just 13-of-37 passes for 158 yards in the loss.  

The Red Raiders cannot be favored by double-digits given their QB situation.  Even Morton was banged up and didn't practice all week, so they could be down to a third-stringer and possibly a wildcat offense.  A lot of their offense has come from Shough on the ground as he has rushed for 149 yards this season.  The Red Raiders are in a world of hurt at QB right now.

Smith is completing 62.3% of his passes for 1,012 years with five touchdowns and three interceptions for Houston this season.  He has also rushed for 104 yards and three scores.  The Cougars showed a lot of resiliency by crushing Sam Houston State 38-7 as 11.5-point favorites last week.  They had 538 total yards against a very good Sam Houston State defense.  Sam Houston played BYU, Air Force and Jacksonville State much tougher than they did Houston.

It's also a revenge game for Houston in general after losing five consecutive meetings in this series all by 17 points or fewer, including a 33-30 loss last year as 4-point road dogs.  Given the situation, I think Texas Tech with a backup QB is ripe to get upset here by their former QB and the Cougars.  Bet Houston Saturday.

15* Indiana/Maryland Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +14.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on Indiana after needing OT to beat Akron as a 16-point home favorite last week.  Akron is better than they get credit for, but it was a clear flat spot for the Hoosiers off a tough 21-14 loss to Louisville the previous week, and with Maryland on deck.  Indiana also lost 23-3 to Ohio State in the opener, so they have played a brutal schedule up to this point.

They have played a much tougher schedule than Maryland, which is overvalued after a 4-0 start to the season.  They beat Towson, Charlotte and Virginia at home before going on the road and topping Michigan State, which is a program in turmoil firing Mel Tucker two weeks ago.  But a closer look at the box scores of the Virginia and Michigan State games shows misleading finals, and those misleading finals have the Terrapins overvalued.

Maryland actually trailed Virginia 14-0.  That was a 7-point game going into the 4th quarter, yet they won by 28.  They only outgained Virginia by 107 yards, and that's a terrible Virginia team.  Last week's 31-9 win at Michigan State was a 12-point game until the Terrapins added 10 points in the 4th quarter.  Michigan State actually outgained Maryland by 14 yards as well, but committed five turnovers, which was the difference.

Indiana is 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with Maryland.  The three losses came by 3, 3 and 5 points.  So they haven't even come close to losing by this kind of margin to Maryland in any of the last eight meetings.  That makes for an 8-0 system backing the Hoosiers pertaining to this 14.5-point spread.

We see it every year with Maryland.  Take advantage of a soft non-conference schedule early then get buried in conference play and struggle to make a bowl game.  The Terrapins also have Ohio State on deck neck week, so they could be looking ahead to that potential battle of unbeatens.

Maryland is 32-58 ATS in its last 90 games following a conference win, including 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games following a conference win by 21 points or more.  Mike Locksley is 11-21 ATS after the first month of the season as the coach of Maryland.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Nebraska +18

Michigan has been way overvalued this season after making the four-team playoff.  They are 0-3-1 ATS despite playing a very weak schedule with four straight home games against ECU, UNLV, Bowling Green and Rutgers.  They were favored by 35.5 or more points in three of those four games and haven't even scored 35 points once.

A big reason Michigan isn't putting up big points this season is because they are the second-slowest team in the entire country.  They rank 132nd out of 133 teams in seconds in between plays at 32.3 seconds.  Now they face a Nebraska team that ranks 116th at 29.1 seconds in between offensive snaps.  That means there will be fewer possessions in this game, thus it really favors the underdog.

Nebraska has been undervalued since blowing the game last in a 13-10 loss at Minnesota.  They also were embarrassed on National TV at Colorado.  Now everyone has given up on this team.  Matt Rhule, the coaching staff and these players have Michigan right where they want them Saturday.  Everyone is overlooking them now, and with four games under their belts, they are starting to get familiar with Rhule's systems.

Nebraska bounced back from the Colorado loss with a dominant 35-11 victory over Northern Illinois as 11.5-point favorites.  They held NIU to just 149 total yards and have an elite defense that is capable of getting more stops than anyone else Michigan has faced thus far.  They also beat LA Tech 28-14 last week.  They were up 28-7 before a rain delay in the 4th quarter and gave up a TD after the delay to make the final score look closer than it was.

Nebraska has gone to Heinrich Haarberg at QB for the past two wins, and he has a lot of Tim Tebow in him.  He has thrown for 278 yards and four touchdowns without an interception, while also leading the team in rushing with 272 yards, two touchdowns and 6.5 per carry.  He gives them their best chance to be successful, and I love the run-heavy approach here against Michigan to shorten the game.

Rhule is 44-19 ATS in conference games as a head coach.  Rhule is 8-0 ATS in home games against a team that wins more than 75% of their games as a head coach.  Rhule is 9-0 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more yards per attempt as a head coach.  Bet Nebraska Saturday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Akron -2.5

The Akron Zips have quietly been one of the best covering teams in the country dating back to last season.  They have gone 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They could easily have a much better straight up record than they do in those 13 games as they have gone 1-7 SU in one-score games during this stretch despite being a double-digit underdog in almost all of them.

Akron opened the season with a 21-24 loss at Temple as 9.5-point dogs and blew a double-digit lead in that game.  They beat Morgan State but failed to cover due to committing five turnovers.  They lost by 32 at Kentucky in a game they also deserved to cover as 26-point dogs, but gave up a late TD in that one with Kentucky clearly trying to cover the spread.

But no effort was more impressive for Akron this season than last week's 29-27 loss at Indiana in overtime as 16.5-point underdogs.  Akron actually outgained Indiana by nearly 200 yards in that game but committed three turnovers.  They also missed a potential game-winning field goal going into overtime.

QB DJ Irons is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country.  He threw for 194 yards and rushed for 141 more and a pair of touchdowns on a very good Indiana defense last week.  Indiana had held Louisville to 21 points the week prior, and that's a Louisville team that put up 56 on Boston College and 39 on Georgia Tech.

Usually this would be the kind of loss that could beat a team twice.  But not Akron, especially since they have Buffalo coming to town this week.  They want revenge from a 23-22 loss to Buffalo as 11-point road underdogs in the season finale last year.  That's a game Buffalo had to win to make a bowl game, and Akron gave them all they wanted and should have won outright.  Buffalo scored with 1:15 left to steal a 1-point victory.

Now it's Buffalo that is one of the worst teams in college football this season.  Buffalo is now 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in its last eight regular season games.  The Bulls have opened 0-4 SU & 2-2 ATS this season, and they were extremely fortunate to cover last week.  They lost by 21 at Wisconsin in the opener.  They were upset by Fordham at home as 22.5-point favorites in Week 2.  They were blasted by 28 at home by Liberty in Week 3.  And last week they lost by 7 at Louisiana-Lafayette, but they were down by 21 in the final minutes before getting an touchdown, and onside kick and another touchdown to make the final score look better than it really was.

Buffalo doesn't do anything well, especially defensively.  The Bulls are allowing 44.5 points per game, 512 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play this season.  Compare that to Akron, which allows 27.3 points per game, 332 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play and it's easy to see the Zips have the much better defense.  These teams are pretty evenly-matched offensively, but the Zips have played the much tougher schedule of opposing defenses with three road games already at Indiana, Kentucky and Temple.

Joe Moorhead has the Zips pointed in the right direction and this team believes they can challenge for a bowl game.  I'm worried the train is about to come off the rails for Maurice Lingquist in Buffalo as this team has very little to play for after an 0-4 start in which they haven't even been competitive in any game other than their lost to FCS Fordham as a 22.5-point favorite.

Plays against road teams (Buffalo) - a bad team that is outscored by 10 or more points per game, after two straight games where 70 or more total combined points were scored are 73-28 (72.3%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Akron Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Syracuse +7

Clemson is out of the national title discussion already in September for the first time in a long time.  They lost 28-7 to Duke in the opener and 31-24 to Florida State last week.  That loss to Florida State is the dream crusher as they are out of not only the ACC title discussion now, but the national title discussion as well.  It's the kind of game that can beat a team twice.

Now they must go on the road and face an underrated Syracuse team that has had their number in recent years.  Syracuse is 4-0 this season with all four wins coming by 13 points or more.  They are averaging 44.3 points per game and allowing just 10.8 points per game, outscoring opponents by 33.5 points per game.

Syracuse is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Clemson.  Four of those six meetings were decided by 6 points or less.  I love Syracuse QB Garrett Schrader, who is very similar to Duke QB Riley Leonard, who threw for 175 yards and rushed for 98 more against Clemson in the opener.  Schrader is completing 66.7% of his passes for 972 yards while averaging 9.0 per attempt, while also leading the team in rushing with 316 yards, 6.9 per carry and 6 TD on the ground.

Plays on home underdogs (Syracuse) - after four consecutive wins are 51-20 (71.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Orange are being disrespected here and I believe they should actually be favored, especially given the brutal spot for Clemson with their dreams crushed.  Bet Syracuse Saturday.

20* Louisville/NC State ESPN No-Brainer on Louisville -3

The Louisville Cardinals look like one of the most improved teams in the country under Jeff Brohm.  He is just a winner everywhere he has gone, and now he has his dream job coaching for the team he used to play for.  Louisville is rapidly improving since trailing Georgia Tech 28-13 at halftime in the opener.

The Cardinals stormed back for a 39-34 victory, and that win looks even better now after Georgia Tech gave Ole Miss all they could handle on the road while also upsetting Wake Forest on the road.  They beat Murray State 56-0, jumped out to a 21-0 halftime lead on Indiana, which played Ohio State tough, and then crushed Boston College 56-28 last week.  That's a Boston College team that only lost by 2 to Florida State.

The key to Brohm's quick success was luring QB Jack Plummer from Cal to join him.  Plummer is completing 67% of his passes for 1,120 yards with a 10-to-4 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 100 yards and another score.  He leads a Louisville offense that is averaging 43.0 points per game, 543 yards per game and 8.3 yards per play.  The defense is giving up just 19.0 points per game, 363 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 2.6 yards per play, which is one of the best margins in the country.

Compare that to NC State, which is averaging 5.2 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.7 yards per play on defense.  The Wolfpack are getting outgained by 0.5 yards per play despite facing a similar strength of schedule to Louisville.  The offense just hasn't been very good since losing QB Leary to Kentucky and replacing him with Brennan Armstrong, and this is one of the worst defenses of the Dave Doeren era.

The 24-14 win at UConn in the opener looks really bad after UConn lost 35-14 to Georgia State, was upset 24-17 by FIU, and got blasted 41-7 by Duke.  NC State then lost 45-24 at home to Notre Dame before topping lowly VMU 45-7.  And last weeks 24-21 win at 8-point favorites at Virginia was very concerning when you look at the box score.  

Virginia actually outgained NC State 384 to 319, or by 65 total yards.  Armstrong went 15-of-30 passing for 180 yards and rushed 15 times in a very physical game against his former team.  I question how much he has left in the tank on this short week against a Louisville team that made easy work against Boston College last week and should be fresh after resting starters in the 4th quarter.

NC State is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games overall.  Doeren is 1-9 ATS vs. excellent rushing teams that average 230 or more rushing yards per game as the coach of NC State.  The Cardinals are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a conference game.  Bet Louisville Friday.

20* Lions/Packers NFC North No-Brainer on Green Bay +2

The Green Bay Packers have had this game circled all offseason.  The Detroit Lions beat them in Week 18 last year to keep them out of the playoffs.  In fact, they swept the season series and have lost three consecutive games to the Lions overall.  It's safe to say they won't be lacking any motivation here Thursday night.

These short weeks really favor the home teams.  Green Bay has zero travel involved after beating the Saints at home Sunday to improve to 2-1 this season, with their lone loss coming on the road at Atlanta after blowing a 12-point lead.  The Packers have the rest and travel advantage as a result with the Lions having to fly in from Detroit on a short week.

The Packers beat the Bears 38-20 in the opener on the road.  They haven't had Aaron Jones or Christian Watson either of the last two games, but both are expected to return.  That gives Jordan Love his two biggest playmakers on the field at the same time for the first time all season.  What he has done thus far without these two has been very impressive.  He has a 7-to-1 TD/INT ratio through three games.  I think Love is much better than he gets credit for.

This Green Bay defense also looks improved and is much healthier than the offense.  Plus, not only did Jones and Watson return to practice this week, but their top CB in Jaire Alexander returned to practice this week as well.  There's a good chance they get all three of these players back, which are three of the very best players on the entire roster.

Speaking of injuries, the Lions have a laundry list of them.  FB Cabinda and RG Vaitai and RT Nelson are out on offense, while LT Decker, LG Jackson and RB Montgomery are all questionable.  FS Joseph missed last game with a hip injury and is questionable to return this week.  This isn't a very good Detroit defense as it is, and that was evident when they gave up 37 points to Seattle two weeks ago.  I think they are being overvalued here as road favorites off their home win over the Falcons last week.

The Packers have clearly been undervalued this season and are getting no respect here once again as this line has flipped favorites.  In fact, the Packers have flipped from favorites to underdogs for three consecutive games now.  They were -1.5 to +3 against the Falcons and covered in a 1-point loss.  They were -2 to +1.5 against the Saints last week and covered in a 1-point win.  They improved to 3-0 ATS this season.  They went from -1.5 to +2 as of this writing in this game as well.

Green Bay is 28-4 SU in its last 32 home meetings with Detroit.  The Packers have arguably the best home-field advantage in the entire NFL, and that's not being factored enough into this line. This is the first time the Lions have been favored in Green Bay since 1986 when the Packers have had their starting QB healthy.  The Lions are 13-31 ATS in their last 44 games as road favorites.  Green Bay is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games as an underdog.  Bet the Packers Thursday.

15* Temple/Tulsa ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Tulsa -3

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are in good hands with head coach Kevin Wilson.  He was the head coach at Indiana for six seasons and was Ohio State's offensive coordinator over the past six seasons.  That was a tremendous hire for the program, and he's going to turn this thing around sooner rather than later.

Tulsa has done a good job of getting to 2-2 thus far considering they were underdogs in three of their four games.  After opening with a 42-7 win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, the Golden Hurricane faced two national title contenders in Washington and Oklahoma, and it went about as expected with blowout losses.  They then upset Northern Illinois 22-14 as 4-point road underdogs last week.

Now they host Temple, which has been extremely disappointing thus far.  They have played a much softer schedule than Tulsa to this point and are also 2-2.  They were fortunate to escape with a 24-21 home win over Akron in the opener as 9.5-point favorites.  They were blasted 36-7 at Rutgers, which is one of the worst teams in the Big Ten.  They blew out Norfolk State 41-9 as 31.5-point home favorites before getting blowing out 41-7 at home by Miami as 23-point dogs.

Tulsa beat Temple 27-16 as 13.5-point road favorites last year and 44-10 as 22-point home favorites in 2021.  Now we are only having to lay 3 points with Tulsa at home, which compared to those previous two spreads in this series is clearly a discount.

Tulsa wants to run the football, and Temple cannot stop the run.  Tulsa averages 170 rushing yards per game on 46 attempts.  They are going to run it, run it again and keep running it.  That's especially the case knowing they are up against a weak Temple run defense that is allowing 200 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry.  The Golden Hurricane only allow 125 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry this season despite the brutal schedule.  They will win the battle at the line is scrimmage, and that will be the difference in this game.  Bet Tulsa Thursday.

20* Eagles/Bucs NFC No-Brainer on OVER 45

The Philadelphia Eagles have one of the best offenses in the NFL again this season.  They are scoring 29.5 points per game.  They will get what they want against this Tampa Bay defense to lead the way in us cashing the OVER tonight.

The Tampa Bay Bucs are improved on offense this season behind Baker Mayfield, who has more weapons now than he ever has in his career.  Mayfield is a gun slinger who will make plenty of plays, but who is also susceptible to turnovers and easy scores for the Eagles.

Mayfield will be up against a banged-up Philadelphia defense that is allowing 378.0 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play this season to the Patriots and Vikings.  CB Maddox is out, LB Dean is out and DT Davis and DE Sweat are both questionable to play Monday.  Several other players are playing through injury on defense.

I think the Bucs are allowing 5.7 yards per play defensively this season.  The Vikings should have scored more on them in them in the opener but turned it over three times.  The Bucs also have injury concerns on defense with LB Dennis and DL Kancey out, plus LB White, DL Vea and CB Davis II all questionable.

Both defenses are vulnerable with injuries and both offenses are healthy and thriving in the early going this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Cowboys/Cardinals OVER 43

The Dallas Cowboys have scored at total of 70 points in their first two games for an average of 35.0 points per game.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL this season.  I wouldn't be surprise to see them get to their season average again here against the Arizona Cardinals, who have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

The Cardinals made Daniel Jones look like Patrick Mahomes in the second half last week in their 31-28 loss to the Giants.  They have injuries up and down their defense, and now they are a tired defense after being on the field so much in the second half last week.

No question the Cowboys have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but they have played Jones and the Giants and Zach Wilson and a dead Jets offense without Aaron Rodgers.  They just lost CB Travon Diggs to a torn ACL in practice this week.

Josh Dobbs has been a pleasant surprise for this Arizona offense, which is better than it gets credit for.  They put up 16 points on a very good Washington defense in Week 1, and then 28 points and 379 total yards against the Giants last week.  I expect them to put up enough points on the Cowboys to help us cash this OVER ticket.

Conditions will be perfect for a shootout inside the dome in Arizona.  The Cowboys and Cardinals have combined for at least 45 points in four consecutive meetings and six of their last seven meetings.  A big reason for that is because these games are always played indoors in perfect conditions.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Bears/Chiefs OVER 47

The Kansas City Chiefs played in the lowest-scoring game of the Week 2 with a 17-9 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.  That game also had the highest total at 50.5.  Because that game went so far under the total, we are now getting value with the OVER this week with this total against the Chicago Bears down to 47.

This Kansas City offense has been held in check through two weeks.  Injuries and turnovers hurt them in Week 1 against the Lions, and turnovers and red zone failures hurt them in Week 2 against the Jaguars.  I think the Chiefs are looking to make a statement this week on offense, and I expect them to hang a big number on arguably the worst defense in the NFL in the Chicago Bears.

The Bears allowed 38 points to the Packers in Week 1 and 27 points and 437 total yards to the Bucs in Week 2.  Their defensive coordinator resigned, they already lack talent at every level defensively, and now they are missing a few of their best defensive players due to injury.  What a mess.  They are without CB Kyler Gordon and likely to be without S Eddie Jackson this week.  The Chiefs are going to score 30-plus points on the Bears to bust out of their funk and help pave the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.

The Bears should get to 17-plus against the Chiefs.  They scored 20 on the Packers in the opener and 17 on the Bucs last week.  But Justin Fields has been thinking too much and taking negative plays as a result.  He has stated this week that he's going to get back to being himself and play on instincts, which is when he and the Bears are much better.  That means he's going to run a lot more, and the Chiefs struggle against running quarterbacks.  Look for Fields to play his best game of the season this week for the Bears, who are much healthier on offense than defense.  

Conditions in Kansas City look good for a shootout Sunday with the forecast calling for temps in the 70's, only a 26% chance of precipitation and only 8.5 MPH winds.  This total has been suppressed due to Kansas City going under the total in their first two games this season.  We'll take advantage of the value and back the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Tennessee Titans +3.5

Deshaun Watson single-handedly cost the Browns a win last week.  He was 22-of-40 passing and had a couple costly offensive facemask penalties trying to stiff arm guys.  He also handed the Steelers two defensive touchdowns.  He's clearly not the guy he was in Houston. He is 4-4 as a starter in Cleveland with a 9-to-7 TD/INT ratio.  There's too much on Watson's shoulders moving forward.

Now the Browns are without their best offensive player in Nick Chubb after a gruesome knee injury.  I just don't think this team laying more than a field goal to the Titans.  They do have a great defense, but keep in mind they played a broken Bengals offense and a broken Steelers offense.  They also have a much worse injury situation than the Titans right now.

Mike Vraebel is the underdog king.  He actually has a winning record SU as an underdog in his career at 24-22 SU.  Vrabel is 23-9-1 ATS as an underdog of +3 or higher as a head coach.  The Titans just have a way of making games close and winning them late with great coaching.  Each of their first two games this season were decided by a combined 4 points.

The Titans have a very good defense this season that will keep them in games.  They are stout against the run, and the Browns want to run the football even without Chubb.  The Titans still have a great rushing attack with Derrick Henry, and Ryan Tannehill was much sharper last week completing 20-of-24 passes to bounce back from his 3-interception performance against the Saints.  He led the Titans to a 27-24 (OT) win over the Chargers to bounce back from the 1-point loss to the Saints.

Cleveland is 0-7 ATS in home games after playing on Monday Night Football since 1992.  So the Browns are on a short week as well, only adding to the tough spot for them.  Tennessee is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win.  Plays against home favorites (Cleveland) - off a road loss in the first half of the season are 59-23 (72%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This line should be closer to PK.  Bet the Titans Friday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Indianapolis Colts +8

This looks like a great time to 'sell high' on the Baltimore Ravens.  They have won and covered each of their first two games this season.  They were far less dominant than the 25-9 score against Houston in the opener would indicate.  They were actually outgained by the Texans in that game and held to 265 total yards.

Last week the Ravens upset the Bengals 27-24 as 3-point road underdogs.  But the Bengals lost by 21 to Cleveland in the opener and have been a disaster to start the season.  Joe Burrow re-aggravated his calf injury in the loss and may not play this week.  The Bengals are a mess.  So those two wins don't look that great now.

The Colts deserved to cover in their opener against the Jaguars, but lost 31-21 as they failed to get it in from the 1-yard line in the final seconds and blew a 4-point 4th quarter lead.  Then last week the Colts jumped out to a 31-10 lead on the Texans before calling off the dogs.  The 31-20 final wasn't indicative of how lopsided this game was.

QB Anthony Richardson suffered a concussion early in that game, and the Colts didn't miss a beat with Gardner Minshew, who is arguably the best backup QB in the NFL.  Minshew went 19-of-23 passing for 171 yards and a touchdown in the win.  The Colts will be fine with Minshew is Richardson cannot play Sunday, and it might actually be an upgrade.

The Ravens want to run the ball, and the Colts have been stout against the run this far.  They are only allowing 78 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry.  I think their defense can keep them in this game for four quarters, and whoever is under center will make enough plays to keep this a one-score game either way.  I just think this line should be a touchdown or less, so we are getting some line value at +8.

Like clockwork, the Ravens have a ton of injuries here early in the season again.  They are without RB Dobbins and CB Humphrey.  RB Hill, LT Stanley, C Linderbaum, LB Oweh and S Williams are all questionable.  I think these cluster injuries will catch up to them this week finally.

This is a trap spot for the Ravens.  They are coming off their double-revenge win over the Bengals as they had that game circled after losing in Week 17 and in the first round of the playoffs to the Bengals.  They have been thinking about this game all offseason.  Now they have two division road games against the Browns and Steelers on deck.  This is a sandwich and lookahead spot for the Ravens, another reason they may not bring their best effort.

Plays on road teams (Indianapolis) - after playing their last game on the road in September games are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Teams aren't tired this early in the season, so these back-to-back road games don't affect them nearly as much as they would later in the season.  This has actually been a very profitable spot to back these back-to-back road teams early.  Bet the Colts Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Texans/Jaguars OVER 44

The Jacksonville Jaguars played in the lowest-scoring game of the Week 2 with a 17-9 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.  That game also had the highest total at 50.5.  Because that game went so far under the total, we are now getting value with the OVER this week with this total against the Houston Texans down to 44.

That game against the Chiefs was a bit of an aberration.  Both teams struggled in the red zone and with turnovers.  But the Jaguars will get back to being one of the top offenses in the NFL this week, which is what they looked like in Week 1 when they beat the Colts 31-21 for 51 combined points.  There's simply too much talent on this offense to hold them down for long.

Speaking of the Colts, the Texans just played them last week and lost 31-20 for 51 combined points.  The Colts did whatever they wanted to on offense and jumped out to a huge lead before calling off the dogs.  The Texans showed they could still move the football and score late, which is what I could see happening again here to help us cash this OVER.

CJ Stroud threw for 384 yards and two touchdowns on the Colts last week and took a big step forward from Week 1 against the Ravens to that performance.  He has some underrated targets on the outside in Collins, Dell and Woods, and he has a great running back in Damien Pierce.  This Texans offense I think is underrated right now.

The problem for Houston is all their injuries on defense right now.  They could potentially be without four of their top five defensive backs.  They have injuries at linebacker and on the defensive line as well.  They have the longest injury list of any team in the NFL right now, and almost all of them are on defense.  It looks as though they will get their best offensive linemen in Laremy Tunsil back from injury this week as well.  

Conditions in Jacksonville will be perfect for a shootout with temps in the 80's, a 5% chance of precipitation and only 6.5 MPH winds forecasted.  I expect the Jaguars to score 30-plus in this one and the Texans to get 20-plus to easily cash this OVER 44 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* New Mexico State/Hawaii Late-Night BAILOUT on Hawaii -2.5

Hawaii has played an absolutely brutal schedule thus far and it's why they are 1-3.  Their three losses came to Vanderbilt, Stanford and Oregon and they were competitive in two of them.  Their lone win came 31-20 as 8-point favorites over Albany, one of the better FCS teams in the country.

New Mexico State is 2-2 against an extremely soft schedule.  Their two wins came against Western Illinois and New Mexico.  Western Illinois is one of the worst FCS teams, and New Mexico is one of the worst FBS teams.  They were also upset as 7-point home favorites in a 30-41 loss to UMass, also one of the worst FBS teams in the country.  They were blasted 33-17 at Liberty and outgained by 187 yards in that defeat.

This will be Hawaii's second-easiest game this season and New Mexico State's second-toughest.  This line suggest these teams are pretty much even if you give Hawaii 2.5 points for home-field advantage.  I just don't believe that's the case as the Rainbow Warriors are clearly the superior team, and they'll win this one by a field goal or more at home.

Hawaii is 9-1 SU in its last 10 meetings with New Mexico State, including 5-0 SU at home.  Timmy Chang is 9-2 ATS after forcing one or fewer turnovers last game as the coach of Hawaii.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Louisiana-Lafayette -8.5

Buffalo looks like one of the worst teams in the country this season.  They lost 38-17 to Wisconsin in the opener, 40-37 to Fordham as a 22.5-point favorite and 55-27 to Liberty as a 3-point dog.  Their defense was shredded against Fordham and Liberty through the air despite both of those quarterbacks not being great passers.  They gave up a 10-to-0 TD/INT ratio in those two games alone.

Louisiana is going to blow out Buffalo on Saturday.  They beat Northwestern State 38-13 in the opener, lost 31-38 at Old Dominion, and won 41-21 at UAB.  Old Dominion nearly upset Wake Forest last week, so that loss doesn't look at bad now.  The UAB win was very impressive as they had 515 total yards and won by 20 despite turning it over three times.  

Now the Rajin' Cajuns are back home here and licking their chops at the opportunity to face this putrid Buffalo defense that is allowing 44.3 points per game, 510.7 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play.  The Bulls are only averaging 4.9 yards per play on offense, so they are getting outgained by 2.4 yards per play on the season.  Louisiana is averaging 6.8 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.9 yards per play, outgaining opponents by 1.9 yards per play.

Maurice Lingquist clearly isn't the answer at head coach in Buffalo.  Lingquist is 0-6 ATS following a home loss as the coach of Buffalo.  The Bulls are 2-12 ATS following a loss as the coach of Buffalo.  The Bulls are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 road games when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 75% of their games.  

Plays against road teams (Buffalo) - a bad team that is outscored by 10 or more points per game, after two straight games where 70 or more combined points per scored are 73-27 (73%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Louisiana Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Baylor +15.5

I love the spot for the Baylor Bears this week.  This line would have been a lot smaller coming into the season than it is now.  I think it's an overreaction from what we've seen thus far.

Baylor is 1-2 getting upset by Texas State in the opener.  Turns out Texas State isn't that bad when you look at their results since.  They also lost 20-13 basically at the buzzer to Utah after blowing a 13-6 lead in the final two minutes, giving up a TD, turning it over and another TD.  They slept walked through their 30-7 win over Long Island last week, but it worked as pretty much a bye week because they didn't have to put forth much effort.

Texas is overvalued after a 3-0 start that included an upset win at Alabama.  Turns out Alabama isn't that good this year as they only beat South Florida 17-3 last week.  We saw Texas overvalued last week and took advantage by backing Wyoming +30.  That was a 10-10 game in the 4th quarter before Texas pulled away for a misleading 31-10 victory.  The Longhorns are again overvalued this week laying more than two touchdowns on the road to Baylor.

Baylor's stats actually look pretty good compared to their record.  They are averaging 6.5 yards per play on offense against teams that allow 5.2 yards per play.  They are allowing 5.8 yards per play on defense against teams that averaging 5.8 yards per play.  So they are averaging 1.3 yards per play more on offense than their opponents allow, and allowing 0.5 yards per play less on defense than their opponents gain on average.

This has been a closely-contested series in recent years with each of the last five meetings being decided by 11 points or fewer.  Texas has only beaten Baylor by more than 11 points once in the last 13 meetings, making for a 12-1 system backing the Bears pertaining to this 15.5-point spread.  Baylor is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after a game where they forced one or fewer turnovers.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

15* Oklahoma State/Iowa State Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 37

The forecast is a big reason I'm on the UNDER in this game between Oklahoma State and Iowa State.  Showers and thunderstorms are likely with a 65% chance plus 20 MPH winds consistently and higher gusts.  Points will be hard to come by given the forecast.

The Iowa State Cyclones are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They have allowed 21 or fewer points per game in three consecutive seasons now and have another elite defense this season, allowing just 13.0 points per game, 262.3 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play through three games.  Their defense will be the best unit on the field Saturday.

They should shut down what looks like the worst Oklahoma State offense of the Mike Gundy era.  Despite facing a soft schedule of Central Arkansas, ASU and South Alabama, Oklahoma State is only scoring 20.3 points per game, averaging 323 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play on offense.  The Cowboys only managed 7 points and 208 total yards at home against South Alabama last week and tried out three different quarterbacks.  They are lost at the position after Spencer Sanders transferred away.

Iowa State also looks lost offensively this season but has played a tougher schedule.  They are averaging 16.7 points per game, 271.7 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  The suspensions due to the betting scandal hurt them more on offense than on defense and it has shown.  They are forced to start a backup QB in Becht now and he has struggled in the early going.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these teams with last year resulting in only 34 combined points.  Iowa State is 12-3 UNDER in all games over the last two seasons.  Oklahoma State is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 road games when playing with 6 or less days' rest.  The Cowboys are 16-4 UNDER in their last 20 games as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points.  Matt Campbell is 12-2 UNDER as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points as a head coach.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State -2.5

The Iowa State Cyclones could easily be 3-0 instead of 1-2.  But that 1-2 record has them undervalued now and this is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Cyclones.  They have allowed 21 or fewer points per game in three consecutive seasons now and have another elite defense this season, allowing just 13.0 points per game, 262.3 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play through three games.  Their defense will be the best unit on the field Saturday.

The reason the Cyclones could be 3-0 is because they outgained Iowa 290 to 235 and had 19 first downs compared to just 9 for Iowa.  The only difference was Iowa getting a pick 6 and Iowa State missing a short field goal in a 20-13 defeat.  But Iowa always seems to get a defensive or special teams touchdown against them every year and it's always the difference in a close game.

Last week, Iowa State outgained Ohio 271 to 247 for the game but lost the turnover battle 2-0 in a 10-7 defeat.  One was a deflected pass.  I thought QB Becht played well in that game for the Cyclones, going 17-of-24 passing for 233 yards with a touchdown and those two interceptions, while also rushing for 31 yards on nine carries.  Keep in mind Ohio is one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country and Iowa State was only a 3-point favorite.

Oklahoma State's results to this point have been much more alarming.  None more than last week's 33-7 home loss to South Alabama as a 7-point favorite.  There was nothing fluky about that result as South Alabama outgained Oklahoma State 395 to 208 for the game.  The Cowboys tried three different quarterbacks in that game and none were successful.  They just don't have a QB this year after Spencer Sanders transferred out.  Keep in mind South Alabama lost by 20 at Tulane in their opener and only beat SE Louisiana by 18 at home as a 23-point favorite.

Oklahoma State needed a second-half comeback to beat Arizona State 27-15 two weeks ago.  They only outgained ASU 304 to 277 for the game.  ASU went on to lose 29-0 at home to Fresno State last week and is clearly the worst team in the Pac-12.  They also only beat Southern Utah 24-21 as a 34.5-point home favorite in the opener.  Oklahoma State only beat FCS Central Arkansas 27-13 in the opener as a 26.5-point home favorite as well.  This is the worst Cowboys team we've seen in a long time, and this may very well by Mike Gundy's final season in Stillwater.

I trust Matt Campbell to rally the troops much more than Gundy, who looks to have lost this team after that 26-point home loss to South Alabama.  The Cyclones have played the much tougher schedule to this point as well.  They are more battle-tested and I think they get rewarded with a win and cover at home in the Big 12 opener this weekend.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oregon -21

The Colorado Buffaloes have already hit their season win total of 3 with their 3-0 start.  They have been the talk of college football and have gotten a lot of hype after beating both TCU and Nebraska to open the season.  It's clear both TCU and Nebraska are down this season, so those wins don't look as good in hindsight.

Last week millions of viewers tuned in for their showdown against Colorado State with College Gameday on campus.  It was a thrilling game and a great comeback for Colorado despite being 23-point favorites.  Trailing by 8 with 98 yards to go on their final possession of regulation, Shedeur Sanders led them down the field and got the touchdown and 2-point conversion to force OT.  Colorado would win in double-OT in a game that finished at roughly 2:00 AM EST.

Now the Buffaloes are a tired team heading into this game with Oregon.  They are also a beat up team losing the top recruit in the country in Travis Hunter to an injury against Colorado State.  Hunter was their best receiver and best cornerback and it's a huge blow to the team not having him moving forward.  I don't think they can hang with Oregon without him.

Oregon looks like a freight train this season.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS beating Portland State 81-7 as a 48-point favorite, going on the road and beating Texas Tech 38-30 as a 4.5-point favorite, and avoiding the letdown last week in a 55-10 home win over Hawaii as a 38-point favorite.

Oregon is averaging 58 points per game, 587 yards per game and 8.3 yards per play this season with tremendous balance, throwing for 363 yards per game and rushing for 224 yards per game.  They are going to score at will on this shaky Colorado defense that is allowing 30.3 points per game, 460.3 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  I don't think Sanders and company can keep up for four quarters.  They get a big time reality check here on the road in a hostile environment in Eugene.

Dan Lanning is 11-3 ATS as a favorite as the coach of Oregon.  Lanning is 7-0 ATS after gaining 525 or more total yards last game as the coach of the Ducks.  Colorado is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. good offensive teams averaging 31 or more points per game.  This is too much to ask of Deion Sanders and his team to go on the road and hang with one of the top teams in the country in the Ducks.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

15* Texas Tech/West Virginia Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 55.5

West Virginia is now a power running team under their new offensive coordinator.  They ran 40 times against Penn State, 49 times against Duquesne and 48 times against Pitt.  That game last week against Pitt was ugly as the Mountaineers won 17-6 with just 221 total yards while limiting the Panthers to just 211 total yards.

I think West Virginia will control this game playing at home with its running game while trying to shorten it.  The Mountaineers rank 116th out of 133 teams in the country in seconds between plays at 29.5 seconds.  Slowing it down gives them their best chance to win against Texas Tech.

I think Texas Tech's opener against Wyoming was very misleading which is why this total has been inflated.  It saw 68 combined points in a 33-35 loss in double-OT, but that game was tied 20-20 at the end of regulation for just 40 combined points, so they scored 28 points in OT.  Oregon beat Texas Tech 38-30 and had a defensive TD in the closing seconds that turned a 61-point result into a 68-point result.  Last week Texas Tech flexed defensively in a 41-3 win over Tarleton State in a game that had a 75.5-point total, so it was expected to be a shootout.

This Texas Tech defense has been good holding opponents to 4.9 yards per play despite those opponents averaging 5.8 yards per play in all games, holding them 0.9 yards per play below their season averages.  West Virginia is allowing 20.3 points per game, 307.7 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season despite facing a difficult schedule against Pitt and Penn State already.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 49.5 to 56 (West Virginia) - a solid team outgaining opponents by 75 or more yards per game after gaining 225 or less total yards last game are 24-4 (85.7%) since 1992.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* BYU/Kansas Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UNDER 56

The forecast is a big reason I'm on the UNDER in this game between BYU and Kansas.  Showers and thunderstorms are likely with greater than a 50% chance plus 20 MPH winds consistently and higher gusts.  Points will be hard to come by given the forecast.

BYU's offense looks atrocious this season.  They are averaging just 310.7 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play.  They beat Sam Houston 14-0 in the opener.  Their misleading 38-31 win over Arkansas last week was so misleading and has provided us some value on the UNDER.  BYU only had 281 total yards in that game but managed to score 38 points.

Kansas looks greatly improved defensively this season.  They are allowing 21.3 points per game, 274 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.  They have put up some points, but they've also faced an easy schedule of opposing defenses in Missouri State, Illinois and Nevada.  This is a big step up in class for their offense against this BYU defense Saturday.

Both teams prefer to run the football and will be forced to given the forecast.  BYU is 46-19 UNDER in its last 65 games vs. good rushing teams that average 200 or more rushing yards per game.  Kansas is 30-15 UNDER in its last 45 home games vs. good offensive teams scoring 31 or more points per game.  Sitake is 8-1 UNDER in road games vs. good offensive teams scoring 34 or more points per game as the coach of BYU.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +24.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Miami Hurricanes after their 3-0 start that included a 48-33 home win over Texas A&M.  This is a sleepy spot for them with their ACC opener on deck.  It is also their first road game of the season against Temple.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Temple after a shaky start to the season that included a 3-point win over Akron and a 29-point loss at Rutgers, which was a bit misleading when you look at the box score.  Rutgers also appears to be one of the most improved teams in the country.  Temple got right last week with a 41-9 home win over Norfolk State.  Now they Owls will be licking their chops with this opportunity to host a Top 25 opponent from the ACC.

Weather is a big reason I think the Owls can keep this game close.  There is a 72% chance of rain and 23.5 MPH winds forecast as of this writing.  There won't be a lot of points scored in this game as a result, thus making it hard for Miami to get margin.  This game will likely be played on the ground which will shorten the game as well.  Temple has done well rushing for 4.8 yards per carry while allowing 4.0 yards per carry thus for.

Temple is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after forcing one or fewer turnovers last game.  Miami is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS loss.  The Hurricanes are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Temple Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Rutgers +24

The teams that made the four-team playoff last year have been grossly overvalued this year.  That includes both Georgia and Michigan, who are a combined 0-5-1 ATS.  Michigan hasn't even scored enough points to cover their spreads.

Michigan beat East Carolina 30-3 as 35.5-point favorites, UNLV 35-7 as 38-point favorites and Bowling Green 31-6 as 41-point favorites.  As you can see, they have played an extremely soft schedule and haven't managed to top 35 points once.  A big reason is because Michigan ranks 131st out of 133 teams in seconds per play at 31.5 seconds in between plays.  Only Army and Air Force have been slower, with Navy just ahead of them in 130th.

Now Michigan plays another slow team in Rutgers, which ranks 125th in seconds per play.  This is a huge step up in class for the Wolverines as the Scarlet Knights appear to be one of the most improved teams in the country.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS beating Northwestern 24-7 as a 5-point favorite, Temple 36-7 as a 7.5-point favorite and VA Tech 35-16 as a 6.5-point favorite.

Michigan will struggle to score against this very good Rutgers defense that is allowing just 10.0 points per game, 273.3 yards per game and 4.0 yards per play.  This looks like a much-improved Rutgers offense as well at 31.7 points per game, 346 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play.  Will Michigan even score 24 points? They didn't two years ago beating Rutgers 20-13 as a 20.5-point home favorite.

Greg Schiano is 9-2 ATS in September games as the coach of Rutgers.  Schiano is 32-16 ATS as a road underdog in all games as a head coach.  Jim Harbaugh is 2-9 ATS in home games after allowing 17 points or less in three consecutive games as the coach of Michigan.  Bet Rutgers Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Army +14

Army returned 17 starters this season which is a ton for a service academy.  I think Army is being undervalued due to its fluky 17-13 upset loss at Louisiana-Monroe in the opener as 8.5-point favorites.  They led that game 13-3 with under six minutes to go but ULM got two touchdowns late to steal the victory.  Of course, Army gave it away with five turnovers, losing three fumbles and throwing a pair of interceptions.

Now ball security has been a focal point the rest of the way, and they only committed one turnover in their 57-0 win over Delaware as 39-point favorites two weeks ago.  Then last week they upset UTSA on the road 37-29 as 7-point underdogs.  They have much greater balance this season and showed it off with 254 rushing yards and 188 passing yards in the win.

Army clearly has an elite defense that can keep them in games this season.  They are only allowing 15.3 points per game, 292.7 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  And I think their offense will score enough points to keep them within two touchdowns of Syracuse on Saturday.

I think Syracuse is grossly overvalued right now due to opening not only 3-0 SU, but also 3-0 ATS against a very soft schedule.  They crushed Colgate, one of the worst teams in the FCS, and Western Michigan, one of the worst teams in the FBS.  They also won at Purdue, which is a rebuilding Purdue team that also lost at home to Fresno State.  This will be their toughest test of the season.

I think it's a sandwich spot for Syracuse and they won't be that excited to face Army.  They are coming off the big road win at Purdue, and now they have their ACC opener against Clemson on deck.  This just screams letdown for the Orange, who have only a week to get ready for the triple-option, and I think it takes more than a week to truly get prepared for it.  That's why I love backing service academies in this spot.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Army) - a mistake-free team with 42 or fewer penalty yards per game after dominating the times of possession last game with 36 or more TOP minutes are 46-16 (74.2%) ATS since 1992.  Army has an extra day of rest coming into this one too after playing last Friday.  Bet Army Saturday.

20* Boise State/San Diego State MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego State +7

It's a great time to 'buy low' on San Diego State after playing a brutal schedule to open the season.  They have actually done a good job of getting to 2-2 despite the schedule.  They beat one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country in Ohio.  Their two losses have come to two of the best teams in the Pac-12 in UCLA (35-10) and Oregon State (26-9).

Now San Diego State is excited to open Mountain West Play and make a statement as a 7-point home underdog to Boise State.  I thought Boise State was was overrated coming into the season due to what they did to finish last season, making the MWC Title game only to lose to Fresno State.  They lost their offensive coordinator who was the biggest reason they made that run after the switch at QB and the switch in the offense.

That Boise State offense hasn't been the same this season.  They managed just 19 points in a 56-19 loss at Washington in the opener.  They managed 16 points in an 18-16 home loss to UCF, a game they should have lost by more when you consider UCF had 530 total yards on them.  They also gave up 568 total yards to Washington, so this defense clearly isn't any good.  They then allowed 18 points to North Dakota last week, and the offense only managed 394 total yards in that game.

San Diego State is 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four home meetings with Boise State with two outright upsets as 6-point dogs and 3-point dogs.  They have been a dog in all four home meetings and have held their own, and I think it will be more of the same Friday night.  Bet San Diego State Friday.

20* Giants/49ers NFC No-Brainer on San Francisco -10

The San Francisco 49ers look like the best team in the NFL through two weeks.  The New York Giants look like one of the worst teams in the NFL through two weeks.  That's why I'm willing to lay double-digits on the 49ers here at home against the Giants.

The 49ers dominated the Steelers 30-7 on the road in Week 1.  They gained 391 yards and 6.3 yards per play on offense, while allowing just 239 yards and 3.9 per play on defense.  The 49ers then beat the Rams 30-23 on the road only after a last-second field goal at the buzzer by the Rams.  They gained 365 yards and 6.8 yards per play on offense while holding the Rams to 4.9 yards per play on defense.  Yes, the Rams outgained them, but that's only because they ran 24 more plays.  Yards per play margin is a lot more important in the NFL.

The Giants were blasted 40-0 by the Cowboys in Week 1.  They only managed 171 total yards and 2.6 yards per play on offense against the Cowboys.  Then they had what was supposed to be a 'get right' game against arguably the worst team in the NFL last week in the Arizona Cardinals, and it was anything but.  The Giants needed to come back from a 28-7 deficit in the 3rd quarter to win on a field goal, 31-28.  The Giants allowed 379 yards and 6.3 yards per play to the Josh Dobbs and this pitiful Arizona offense.

That comeback effort will have taken a lot out of the Giants on a short week.  They will be fatigued playing their second consecutive road game.  Meanwhile, there's basically no travel at all for the 49ers and from Los Angeles back to Santa Clara, so they will have a big advantage in rest here.

Injuries also work in the 49ers favor here.  They are remarkably healthy right now with WR Brandon Aiyuk being the only scare.  He left the Rams game with a shoulder injury, but he returned to finish the game, so you have to think he's going to give it a go Thursday.  Meanwhile, the Giants lost their best playmaker in Saquan Barkley to an ankle injury while trying to center the ball for the game-winning field goal last week.

Barkley scored two of their four touchdowns last week and this offense was already bad with him, and it's going to be very bad without him.  Backup Matt Breida only had one rush for five yards last week.  LT Andrew Thomas is questionable and LG Ben Bredeson is doubtful.  LB Micah McFadden is questionable and LB Azeez Ojulari is questionable as well.  The injuries are already starting to add up for the Giants.

San Francisco went 9-1 ATS as a home favorite last year and outscored opponents by 14.5 points per game in this spot.  The 49ers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.  San Francisco is 14-1 SU in its last 15 home games with the 14 wins coming by an average of 16.2 points per game.  Bet the 49ers Thursday.

20* Georgia State/Coastal Carolina ESPN No-Brainer on Georgia State +7

The Georgia State Panthers have been impressive in their 3-0 start this season.  Their last two games were particularly good as they beat UConn 35-14 as 3-point home favorites and Charlotte 41-25 as 4.5-point road favorites.  Their offense is averaging 39.3 points per game, 463 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play.  They have great balance with 195 rushing yards per game and 268 passing behind senior QB Darren Grainger, who is a full-time starter for a third consecutive season.

They have the offense to keep up with Coastal Carolina, who has a first-year head coach in Tim Beck.  The 27-13 loss to UCLA was not impressive and the 30-16 win over Jacksonville State as 13.5-point home favorites was lackluster as well.  They only outgained Jacksonville State by 6 yards.  Their 66-7 win over awful Duquesne is skewing their numbers.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Georgia State is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three trips to Coastal Carolina.  The Panthers won 42-40 as 12.5-point road dogs in 2021, 31-21 as 3.5-point road dogs in 2019 and 27-21 as a PK in 2017.  They are catching too many points again here on the road in a game their offense can keep them close for four quarters.

Georgia State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games on turf.  Coastal Carolina is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games after playing a game where 70 or more total points were scored.  The Panthers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 75% of their games, including 7-0 ATS in this spot under current head coach Shawn Elliott.  Bet Georgia State Thursday.

20* Browns/Steelers AFC North No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +3

This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Pittsburgh Steelers.  They are coming off a 30-7 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, who may be the best team in the NFL.  Meanwhile, the Browns are coming off a 24-3 dismantling of the Bengals in the slop.  They simply own the Bengals, and Joe Burrow was rusty after just recently returning to practice, plus the slopping conditions favored the Browns.

The Steelers were 1-point favorites for this game on the lookahead line, and now they are 3-point underdogs, which is a 4-point adjustment.  That's too big of an adjustment for one game's results, and we'll take advantage of the line value and back the motivated 0-1 home underdog here against the fat and happy 1-0 team.

The Steelers have absolutely owned the Browns over the years, especially at home.  Pittsburgh is 46-12 SU against Cleveland since 1992, including 28-3 SU at home.  It's rare to find them as home underdogs to the Browns, but that's the opportunity we have been given here, and we'll take advantage.

Mike Tomlin is 10-2 ATS in home games following a loss by 14 points or more as the coach of Pittsburgh.  His teams are winning by 11.5 points per game in this spot.  The Steelers are 53-31-4 ATS as underdogs under Tomlin, including 16-5-3 ATS as home dogs.  Pittsburgh is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games when the line is +3 to -3.  Cleveland is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 road games following a win by 10 points or more over a division rival.

Plays on underdogs or PK (Pittsburgh) - off a home loss by 10 points or more in the first two weeks of the season are 22-3 (88%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Browns haven't won at Pittsburgh in the regular season since 1993.  Finally, the Steelers are 20-0 SU at home on Monday Night Football since 1991! Bet the Steelers Monday.

20* Saints/Panthers NFC South No-Brainer on Carolina +3.5

I like backing 0-1 teams against 1-0 teams in Week 2.  The lookahead line for this game was Saints -1.5, and now it has been bet up to -3 and -3.5 in some places.  That's plenty of line value to pull the trigger on the home underdog here catching 3 points.

Carolina's 24-10 loss at Atlanta was much closer than the final score would indicate.  The Panthers actually held the Falcons to 221 total yards and outgained them by 60 yards and had 20 first downs compared to 13 for Atlanta.  But the difference was the Panthers lost the turnover battle 3-0.

That was a tough spot for rookie QB Bryce Young in his NFL debut on the road in a hostile atmosphere in Atlanta.  I like his chances of playing much better at home in front of a rowdy crowd that will be on his side in anticipation of getting to see the top pick in the draft.  The Panthers rushed for 154 yards and 4.8 per carry against the Falcons, so they have the running game to take some pressure off Young.  They also are expected to get WR DJ Chark back from injury this week to give him another weapon.

The Saints beat the Titans 16-15 at home last week.  Ryan Tannehill gave that game away by throwing 3 interceptions in a game the Titans deserved to win.  Derek Carr was decent in his first start for the Saints, but they had no running game, rushing for 69 yards and 2.6 per carry.  Not having Alvin Kamara due to suspension is a big blow to this Saints offense.

Carolina is 26-12 ATS in its last 38 games following a divisional loss by 10 points or more.  Carolina won both meetings with New Orleans last year despite being underdogs in both games, holding the Saints to 7 points at home and 14 points on the road.  They have this New Orleans offense figured out and I trust their defense to keep them in this game, while Young makes enough plays in the passing game for the Panthers to get the upset victory.  Bet the Panthers Monday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Bears +3

This is a classic overreaction from Week 1 results.  Tampa Bay upset Minnesota on the road 20-17 as 4-point underdogs, while Chicago was upset at home by Green Bay 38-20 as 1-point favorites.  Now the Bucs are 3-point favorites over the Bears in Week 2 after the lookahead line had the Bears -2 for this game.  So that's a 5-point adjustment that's not warranted.

We all knew Minnesota would come back to the pack this year after going 11-0 in one-score games and actually getting outscored on the season last year.  But with that being said, the Vikings still should have won that game when you dive into the box score.

The Vikings outgained the Bucs 369 to 242, or by 127 total yards.  They also outgained the Bucs 5.9 yards per play to 3.6 yards per play, or by 2.3 yards per play.  They were dominant on the field, but their three turnovers proved costly as the Bucs didn't turn it over once.

Baker Mayfield isn't all of a sudden the savior for the Bucs.  He hasn't won in this league, and he's not going to be a winner in Tampa Bay, either.  Mayfield's teams are 0-8 ATS in his last eight starts as a favorite.  When he has expectations, he fails to meet them.  You want Mayfield in the underdog role with a chip on his shoulder.

Speaking of chip on their shoulder, the Bears will have that this week after a misleading 38-20 loss to the Packers in Week 1.  Chicago was only outgained by 18 yards by Green Bay in that game, but they lost the turnover battle 2-0.  The defense wasn't as bad as the 38 points would suggest considering they held the Packers to 329 total yards.

There is expected to be rain in Tampa Bay Sunday.  That's going to favor the team that wants to run the ball, which is the Bears.  They rushed for 122 yards and 4.2 per carry against the Packers.  The Bucs could only muster 73 rushing yards on 33 attempts against the Vikings, or just 2.2 yards per carry.  That's really poor when you consider the Eagles rushed for 259 yards and 5.4 per carry against the Vikings Thursday night.  The Bears held the Packers to 92 rushing yards on 32 attempts for 2.9 per carry.

Tampa Bay is 2-12 ATS in games played on grass over the last two seasons.  The Bucs are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards last game.  Plays on road teams (Chicago) - off a home loss by 10 points or more in the first two weeks of the season are 22-2 (91.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Buffalo Bills -9

The Buffalo Bills beat up on bad teams.  It's just what they do.  You know they are going to want to beat up on the Raiders Sunday to get the sour taste out of their mouths from blowing a 10-point halftime lead to the Jets on Monday Night Football.  I think they lost their focus due to Aaron Rodgers going out with injury, and they won't make the same mistakes they made against the Jets.

The Bills could have simply kneeled and punted every possession in the 2nd half and won the game.  Instead, they committed four turnovers to give the game away, and Josh Allen made a bunch of mistakes that he doesn't normally make.  It's fair that he was rusty in the opener and playing an elite Jets defense that has his number.  Now he takes a big step down in class here against this soft Las Vegas defense and will be looking to make a statement.

I love backing 0-1 teams like the Bills coming off an upset loss against a 1-0 team like the Raiders coming off an upset win.  This line should be double-digits, but due to the overreaction from last week we are getting the Bills as single-digit favorites as a result.

The Raiders managed to upset the Broncos 17-16 as 3-point road underdogs last week.  The Broncos were playing their first game under Sean Payton and had some injuries, including their best WR in Jerry Jeudy sitting.  They made just enough plays to win that game.

I'm not a Jimmy Garoppolo believer.  He can't hang with Allen and the Bills in a shootout.  While Buffalo is almost fully healthy for this one, Las Vegas lost its No. 2 receiver in Jakobi Meyers to a concussion against the Broncos last week.  Their offense will be significantly hampered without Meyers as the Bills can simply focus on stopping Davante Adams.

Josh Allen is 16-1 SU as a favorite of 7 points or more in his career and his teams usually dominate in this spot.  He is 44-13 as a favorite overall with an average margin of victory of 9.3 points per game, and 27-7 as a home favorite with an average margin of victory of 9.0 points per game.  Bet the Bills Sunday.

20* Chiefs/Jaguars AFC No-Brainer on Jacksonville +3

I look at the Jacksonville Jaguars as a legit Super Bowl contender this season.  While the Chiefs, Bills, Bengals and Jets were getting all of the hype coming into the season, the Jaguars are the sleeper team that could win it all.  They will be out to prove that Sunday with the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs coming to town.

The Jaguars also want revenge from two losses to the Chiefs last season.  They lost 27-17 on the road as 10-point underdogs during the regular season and 27-20 as 10-point road dogs in the playoffs.  They hung right with the Chiefs only getting outgained by 13 yards in that playoff meeting.  Now they get the Chiefs at home this time around.

You could make the argument that the Jaguars have the most explosive offense in the NFL now.  They traded for Calvin Ridley in the offseason and he and Trevor Lawrence are already forming a great connection.  They beat the Colts 31-21 in the opener on the road.  Lawrence threw for 241 yards and a pair of touchdowns, one of which went to Ridley, who led the team with 11 receptions for 101 yards in the win.  Then there's Zay Jones, Christian Kirk and Evan Engram that teams are going to have to account for, plus Travis Etienne in the backfield.

The Jaguars also have playmakers all over the defense and held the Colts to 280 total yards and 4.1 yards per play.  They can more than hold their own on this side of the ball, and now they are very familiar with Kansas City's system having played them twice.  Travis Kelce may return this week from a knee injury, but he won't be 100% after sitting out the Detroit game.  Patrick Mahomes just wasn't comfortable with his receivers without him.

Everyone is on the Chiefs with over 80% of the bets and over 80% of the money just automatically assuming their going to bounce back.  I'll go contrarian here and back the Jaguars, who I have power-rated much higher than most this season.  The Super Bowl hangover is a real thing for the winners and the losers, and I question Kansas City's motivation early in the season when these games don't matter as much.  I know we're going to get 100% effort from the Jaguars playing with double-revenge from last season after the Chiefs ended their season.

Plays on home teams (Jacksonville) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division opponent, a team that had a winning record last season are 43-16 (72.9%) ATS since 1983.  Kansas City is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games vs. AFC opponents.  Jacksonville is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 home games following a divisional road win.  Doug Pederson is 15-4 ATS as a home underdog as a head coach.  Bet Jacksonville Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Chiefs/Jaguars OVER 50.5

You could make the argument that the Jaguars have the most explosive offense in the NFL now.  They traded for Calvin Ridley in the offseason and he and Trevor Lawrence are already forming a great connection.  They beat the Colts 31-21 in the opener on the road.  Lawrence threw for 241 yards and a pair of touchdowns, one of which went to Ridley, who led the team with 11 receptions for 101 yards in the win.  Then there's Zay Jones, Christian Kirk and Evan Engram that teams are going to have to account for, plus Travis Etienne in the backfield.

As you already know, the Chiefs have one of the best offenses in the NFL with Patrick Mahomes and company.  Drops hurt them in their Week 1 loss to the Lions, plus the fact that they didn't have their best playmakers in Travis Kelce.  You can expect a much better offensive performance from the Chiefs in this one.

The Chiefs didn't have much problem scoring points against the Jaguars last season.  They put up 27 points in each of their two meetings.  No question the Chiefs will get their points again, but I now think the Jaguars have the offense to keep up with them in a shootout with the addition of Ridley.

Kansas City is 6-0 OVER in its last six road games played on a grass field, and we're seeing 65.5 combined points per game in this spot.  Andy Reid is 11-3 OVER in road games following a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of Kansas City.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Ravens/Bengals AFC North No-Brainer on UNDER 46.5

Joe Burrow didn't play a snap in the preseason and it showed as he clearly wasn't himself against the Cleveland Browns last week.  Burrow went 14-of-31 for 82 yards while averaging 2.6 yards per attempt as the Bengals managed just 3 points against the Browns.  I don't think it will magically be fixed in one week.

The Ravens managed 25 points against the Houston Texans last week but that came on just 265 total yards.  Lamar Jackson is learning a new offense and it's going to take some time.  But the Ravens were great defensively limiting the Texans to 9 points and 268 total yards.

Clearly both defenses are ahead of the offenses right now, and I expect that to be the case again Sunday.  The Ravens are already decimated by injuries right now.  RB JK Dobbins suffered a torn achilles in Week 1, and OT Ronnie Stanfley, C Tyler Linderbaum and TE Mark Andrews are all questionable to play in Week 2.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Well, this will be the 4th meeting between the Ravens and Bengals since Week 5 last year.  The first meeting saw just 36 combined points, the second meeting saw just 43 combined points, and the 3rd meeting in the playoffs saw just 41 combined points.  As you can see, all three meetings stayed well UNDER this 46.5-point total.  It should be more of the same given the circumstances in Week 2 Sunday.

Cincinnati is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine September games.  Zac Taylor is 13-3 UNDER in September games as the coach of Cincinnati, so his teams tend to start slow offensively but have been on point defensively.  Cincinnati is 12-3 UNDER in its last 15 games against AFC opponents.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

25* CFB Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Colorado State/Colorado OVER 59

The Colorado Buffaloes are a dead nuts OVER team under head coach Deion Sanders.  They scored 45 points and put up 568 total yards against TCU and put up 36 points and 454 total yards against a good Nebraska defense.  But they allowed 42 points and 541 total yards to TCU and their defense is atrocious, allowing 6.2 yards per play through two games this season, including 6.2 per carry on the ground.

Colorado ranks 22nd in the country in seconds per snap at 22.9 seconds in between plays.  Now they face a Colorado State team that wants to go up-tempo as well ranking 4th at 19.2 seconds per snap.  The Rams look like a dead nuts OVER team after one game, too.

They lost 50-24 to Washington State while allowing 556 total yards to the Cougars.  Head coach Jay Norvell is an air-raid guy who led an explosive offense at Nevada.  Now he's in Year 2 at Colorado State and believes he has found his quarterback in freshman Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi.  He provided a spark against Washington State leading the Rams to 21 fourth quarter points.  He went 13-of-20 for 210 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 10.5 yards per attempt.

This is a National TV game on ESPN Saturday night.  You know both offenses are going to want to show out on prime time, and I don't think we'll have a problem getting up and OVER this 60-point total in a game between two fast-paced offenses against two suspect defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Wyoming +30

This is a terrible spot for Texas.  They finally got their validation with a 34-24 upset win at Alabama last week.  The Crimson Tide are clearly down this season and got terrible QB play.  Now the Longhorns have been getting patted on the back all week and complimented.  It's only human nature that they have a letdown.

This is also a sandwich spot for Texas with their Big 12 opener at Baylor on deck.  They won't be giving 100% effort here, and that's going to make it very difficult to cover this massive 30-point spread against a Wyoming team that already upset a team from the Big 12 in Texas Tech.

Wyoming beat Texas Tech 35-33 as 12-point dogs in the opener.  That's a Texas Tech team that gave Oregon all they could handle last week.  It was only human nature for Wyoming to have a letdown the next week, only beating Portland State 31-17 as 28-point favorites.  It was also a sandwich spot for them with Texas on deck.

Keep in mind Wyoming pulled its starting QB in Andrew Peasley up 21 in that Portland State game.  Peasley is healthy and ready to go against Texas, and he may very be the best QB of the Craig Bohl era.  He threw for 149 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 68 yards and a score against Texas Tech in that opener.  He threw three more touchdown passes against Portland State last week and is a legitimate passer.  Wyoming is expected to get Northern Illinois transfer RB Harrison Waylee to make his season debut this week.  He rushed for 1,929 yards and averaged 5.2 per carry at NIU prior to coming here.

We saw Texas struggle to put away Rice in the opener in a 37-10 win as 35.5-point favorites.  They even won the turnover battle 3-0 in that game and still couldn't cover.  Wyoming has a legit defense that returned 10 starters from a unit that allowed just 23.9 points per game last season.  In fact, Wyoming has now allowed 23.9 or fewer points in per in six consecutive seasons under Bohl.  They can hang in this game because of their defense and QB Peasley, plus the letdown factor for Texas.  Bet Wyoming Saturday.

15* Hawaii/Oregon CFB ANNIHILATOR on Hawaii +38.5

The Oregon Ducks are grossly overvalued right now due to their 81-7 victory over Portland State in the opener.  Portland State is one of the worst FCS teams in the country.  The Ducks had no business covering against Texas Tech last week, winning 38-30 as 4.5-point favorites only after a defensive touchdown in the final seconds when they were leading by 1 with the Red Raiders trying to get down the field for the winning field goal.

Now this is a massive flat spot for the Ducks.  They are coming off that huge road win over Texas Tech last week, and now they have the team that everyone in the country is talking about in the Colorado Buffaloes on deck.  They can't help but look ahead to that game, so I fully expect them to be disinterested in this game against Hawaii.  They will likely not try to pour it on in the 2nd half of this one, which will allow Hawaii to stay within the number.

Hawaii has been grossly undervalued dating back to the second half of last season.  The Rainbow Warriors are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall with only one loss by more than 13 points in those 11 games.  They deserved to beat Vanderbilt in the opener in a 28-35 loss as 17-point dogs.  They hung with Stanford in their second game, and they beat a very good FCS team in Albany 31-20 as 8-point favorites last week.  

They outgained Albany 379 to 239 for the game, or by 140 total yards.  They outgained Vanderbilt 391 to 297, or by 94 total yards.  Their defense is vastly improved this season allowing 315 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  And their offense is learning the run and shoot system and has been solid in averaging 27.7 points per game.  QB Brayden Schager is loving the new system, completing 62.5% of his passes for 972 yards with a 10-to-5 TD/INT ratio through three games.

Plays against any team (Oregon) - with a +0.75 or better turnover margin against a team with a -0.75 or worst turnover margin, after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  It's a good time to 'buy low' on Hawaii due to their poor turnover margin, and a good time to sell high on the Ducks due to their fortunate turnover margin up to this point.  This is a dead nuts sandwich spot for the Ducks, who won't cover this massive number as a result.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.

15* Akron/Kentucky CFB ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 49.5

Kentucky has been a dead nuts UNDER team for years under defensive-minded head coach Mark Stoops.  That isn't changing this season.  I have been disappointed in this Kentucky offense that has gotten a lot of hype in the offseason, but this Kentucky defense has saved the day.

Kentucky managed just 357 total yards against Ball State in the opener and scored just 28 points against lowly Eastern Kentucky as a 35.5-point favorite last week.  Now they must face an Akron defense that is much better than they get credit for.

Akron has now allowed 28 or fewer points in six of its last eight games overall with a high of 34 points in those eight games.  They allowed 24 points and 365 total yards to Temple in the opener and 21 points and 231 total yards to Morgan State in their first two games.  But they managed just 279 total yards against Temple and 262 total yards against Morgan State.  The Zips have been held to 28 or fewer points in 12 of their last 13 games overall.

Kentucky is 13-2 UNDER in its last 15 games overall.  The Wildcats are 8-0 UNDER in their last eight games after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers.  Plays on the UNDER in all teams where the total is 49.5 to 56 (Kentucky) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against a team that committed five or more turnovers last game are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Bowling Green +41

The four teams that made the four-team playoff last year have really struggled to start the season in terms of covering spreads.  Michigan is 0-2 ATS, Ohio State is 0-2 ATS, TCU is 0-2 ATS and Georgia is 0-1-1 ATS.  That's a combined 0-7-1 ATS for playoff teams.

To me, this makes sense these teams would struggle to meet the massive expectations set forth by the media, the betting public and thus the oddsmakers.  Michigan literally hasn't scored enough points to cover either of its first two spreads.

The Wolverines beat East Carolina 30-3 as 35.5-point favorites and UNLV 35-7 as 38-point favorites.  Now they are even bigger favorites against Bowling Green this week, and it's not warranted.  I love what I've seen from this Bowling Green team thus far to know that they can stay within this huge number as well.

Bowling Green brought back 13 starters this season from a team that went to a bowl game last year, including eight on offense.  They added former Missouri and Indiana transfer Connor Bazelak at quarterback.  He is completing 59.2% of his passes for 390 yards and three touchdowns while averaging 8.0 per attempt.

The opener against Liberty really caught my eye.  They only lost that game 34-24 despite five turnovers.  Liberty went on to blast New Mexico State 33-17 last week while outgaining the Aggies 526 to 339 in total yards.  Bowling Green came back and blasted Eastern Illinois 38-15 as 17-point favorites last week, gaining 509 yards in the win without a turnover and outgaining them by 184 total yards.

Michigan is one of the slowest teams in the country offensively.  They rank 128th out of 133 teams in seconds per offensive snap at 31.5 seconds.  Army, Navy and Air Force are three games that are slower than them.  Because they are so slow to snap the ball, the Wolverines get fewer plays in on offense making it very difficult for them to score a lot of points quickly.  Thus, it makes it difficult for them to cover these big spreads, as we've seen to this point.  Bet Bowling Green Saturday.

20* Georgia Tech/Ole Miss Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Georgia Tech +19.5

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets quietly went 4-3 down the stretch last year with interim head coach Brent Key.  They pulled upsets as 22-point dogs at Pitt, 3- point dogs to Duke, 3-point dogs at VA Tech and 21-point dogs at North Carolina.  This despite losing QB Jeff Sims after six games to injury.  The Yellow Jackets were playing down the stretch with two terrible backups quarterbacks in Zach Gibson and Zach Pyron.

Now Key has earned the full-time job here and has some chemistry with this team as his players absolutely love the alum.  He brings in one of the most talented quarterbacks in the country in Haynes King from Texas A&M.  Injuries ended his season two years ago, and he was replaced midway through the season in what was a lost year for the Aggies last season.

Key welcomes back 12 starters and has added other impact transfers through the portal.  A few names to keep an eye on are RB Trey Cooley from Louisville, WR Christian Leary from Alabama and WR Dominick Blaylock from Georgia.  The latter two were buried on the depth chart and came here to get playing time and show off their talents.  

Defensively, Key brought in LB Andrew White from Texas A&M and CB Kenyatta Watson from Texas.  Seven starters return on defense, and four starters return along the offensive line while adding in Princeton transfer Connor Scaglione.  Having the O-Line be a strength will allow these new skill players to flourish.

King has been everything the Yellow Jackets had hoped for and more thus far at quarterback.  He is comlpeting 65.6% of his passes for 603 yards with a 7-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.9 yards per attempt.  Cooley is averaging 7.6 yards per rush and Jamal Haynes is averaging 8.2 yards per rush.  Georgia Tech deserved to win the opener with a 39-34 loss to Louisville, blowing a 28-13 lead.  They came back with a 48-13 win over South Carolina State last week.

While Georgia Tech was blowing out its last opponent and resting starters in the 4th quarter, Ole Miss was in a dog fight with Tulane and backup QB Kai Horton after Tulane star QB Michael Pratt was a late scratch.  This game was tied 17-17 in the 4th quarter, and was 27-20 with under two minutes to go.  Ole Miss got a 56-yard FG to go up 10, and then a 26-yard fumble return to win 37-20.

That misleading final is giving us great line value on Georgia Tech this week.  Ole Miss only outgained Tulane 363 to 342, or by 21 total yards.  They were in a dog fight with the Green Wave, and now they have their SEC opener on deck against mighty Alabama.  That makes this not only a letdown spot off the Tulane win, but also a lookahead spot with the Crimson Tide on deck.  

I think Ole Miss has the mentality that they can just show up and win this game after beating Georgia Tech 42-0 last year.  But this is a completely different Yellow Jackets team, and I expect them to be in this game for four quarters.  Bet Georgia Tech Saturday.

15* Tennessee/Florida SEC ANNIHILATOR on Florida +7

Dating back to 1976, Tennessee has never been favored by more than a single point at Florida.  Tennessee hasn't won at Florida since 2001.  This is simply too many points for the Florida Gators to be getting at home in a series they have absolutely dominated.

This is Year 2 for Billy Napier, who did a great job at Louisiana.  I actually like what I've seen from Florida thus far and felt fortunate to cash my Utah -6 ticket in the opener.  The Gators actually outgained Utah 346 to 270 for the game and easily could have won it in a misleading 24-11 defeat.  The Gators bounced back with a 49-7 win over McNeese State last week.

Tennessee lost a ton of talent on offense last year and Hendon Hooker is irreplaceable at quarterback.  Joe Milton just isn't the same accurate passer that Hooker was, and he needs to be accurate to run this offense.  Last week, Tennessee only beat Austin Peay 30-13 as a 49-point favorite, failing to cover that number by 32 points.  That's an alarming result.

After failing to live up to expectations at Wisconsin, I actually like what I've seen from Graham Mertz at quarterback for Florida.  He is in a much more favorable system here to his skill set.  Mertz is completing 73.8% of his passes for 526 yards with two touchdowns and one interception while averaging 8.6 yards per attempt.  He handled himself very well against that stout Utah defense in the opener.

I like the fact that Florida has been battle-tested already while Tennessee played two cupcakes in rebuilding Virginia and FCS Austin Peay.  I think we see Milton's deficiencies exploited by this Florida defense this week.  If Tennessee manages to win this game, it's not going to be by more than one score.  This one should go right down to the wire, and we are getting too many points with the home team here.

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Florida) - after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more total yards are 33-6 (84.6%) ATS overt he last five seasons.  Billy Napier went 5-0 ATS as an underdog in his first season at Florida last year, and four of those games came against ranked teams.  Bet Florida Saturday.

15* North Texas/LA Tech CFB ANNIHILATOR on OVER 67.5

North Texas has the worst defense in the country.  They gave up 58 points and 669 total yards to California in the opener and 46 points and 514 total yards to Florida International last week.  How bad were those performances?

Consider Cal score just 10 points and had 273 total yards against Auburn the next week.  Florida International managed 17 points against Louisiana Tech and 14 points against Maine in their two other games.  It's safe to say this North Texas defense is horrendous.

I was close to taking Louisiana Tech instead of the OVER in this game, but I think the OVER is the better bet.  Louisiana Tech is going to name their score, and North Texas does still have a pretty good offense and will be up against a very poor Bulldogs defense.

LA Tech allowed 37.9 points per game and 469 yards per game in the first season under head coach Sonny Cumbie, who really only cares about offense.  They returned only four starters on defense from that team and are going to be terrible on D again.  They allowed 38 points to SMU two weeks ago and won 51-21 over Northwestern State last week.

North Texas beat LA Tech 47-27 last year for 74 combined points.  North Texas had 671 total yards while Louisiana Tech has 504 total yards.  The Bulldogs are much better offensively this season with transfer QB Hank Beachmeier plus eight returning starters on offense.

North Texas is 6-0 OVER in its last six games after allowing 42 points or more last game.  LA Tech is 10-2 OVER in its last 12 home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Northwestern/Duke CFB ANNIHILATOR on Northwestern +18.5

This is a 'buy low' spot on Northwestern and a 'sell high' spot on Duke.  The perception on Northwestern is way down early in the season after head coach Pat Fitzgerald was fired in the offseason.  If you thought these players were going to lay down, you were mistaken.

The 24-7 loss at Rutgers in the opener doesn't look so bad now after Rutgers blasted Temple 36-7 last week.  Northwestern came back with a dominant 38-7 win over UTEP as a 1-point favorite last week.  That's a quality UTEP team that that won five games last year and brought back 15 starters this year and was expected to be a Top 2 team in Conference USA, just behind Western Kentucky.

Duke is overvalued now after upsetting Clemson in a misleading 28-7 win in the opener.  Clemson had 12 more first downs than Duke and outgained them by 48 yards.  That could prove to be one of the most misleading finals of the year.  Duke came back and failed to cover in a 42-7 win over Lafayette as 43-point favorites last week.  And now Duke is once again laying too many points this week against Northwestern.

The Wildcats are good enough defensively to keep them in this game for four quarters.  They are allowing 15.5 points per game, 302 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play this season.  They brought back eight starters on defense and that is the strength of the team, while the offense cannot possibly be worse than it was a year ago.  Transfer QB Ben Bryant has been solid this season and is a major upgrade at the position.

Plays against home teams (Duke) - a good rushing team averaging 190 to 230 rushing yards per game against a team that's averaging 100 or fewer rushing yards per game are 34-8 (81%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

20* Minnesota/UNC Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Minnesota +7.5

I was on North Carolina -2.5 in their opener against South Carolina.  They won that game 31-17 and have been overvalued since.  They needed double-OT to beat Appalachian State 40-34 as 18.5-point favorites last week.  I love fading teams coming off overtime games.

Minnesota didn't deserve to beat Nebraska in the opener but squeaked out a 13-10 win in the final minutes.  The Golden Gophers were much sharper last week in a 25-6 win over a pesky Eastern Michigan team as 18.5-point favorites.  They outgained the Eagles 413 to 152, or by 261 total yards.

Once again the Golden Gophers clearly have an elite defense.  They are allowing just 8.0 points per game, 224 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play this season.  The offense made some strides last week and should take another step forward this week after an ugly performance against Nebraska in the opener.

North Carolina is far from a defensive juggernaut.  They allowed 219 rushing yards to Appalachian State last week and 494 total yards overall.  The Golden Gophers want to run the ball as they average 40 rushing attempts per game and 176 rushing yards per game.  I'll gladly side with the more physical running team from the Big Ten up against the flashy offensive team in North Carolina from the ACC.

Minnesota reminds me a lot of Iowa.  They have a way of playing close games because of their style.  They can play a close game against a bad team just as easily as a close game against a quality team.  In fact, Minnesota has lost by more than 14 points just once in their last 28 games.  They have only four losses by more than one score in those 28 games.

PJ Fleck is 27-11 ATS in non-conference games as a head coach.  Fleck is 9-1 ATS in road games after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more yards as a head coach.  Fleck will come up with the right game plan to slow down Drake Maye and company.  He won't let Maye beat him over the top and the Tar Heels will have to work for everything they get.  I expect the Golden Gophers to control this game on the ground offensively as well.  Bet Minnesota Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on UMass +9.5

The UMass Minutemen opened the season with a 41-30 upset win at New Mexico State to show how improved they are this season.  Then they got blasted at Auburn and were competitive in a 28-41 loss to Miami Ohio.  Now they get to take a big step down in class here against Eastern Michigan, and I expect them to stay within one score here if they don't pull off the upset.

Eastern Michigan looks brutal this season.  They only beat Howard 33-23 as a 19-point favorite and were actually outgained by 113 yards in that win.  They gave up 398 yards and were held to 285 yards.  Then last week they lost 25-6 to Minnesota as 18.5-point dogs and should have lost by more.  They were outgained by 261 yards by the Golden Gophers and were held to just 152 total yards on offense.

UMass wants revenge from a 7-point loss at Eastern Michigan last year.  I think UMass is improved this season, while Eastern Michigan clearly is taking a step back.  I like EMU in the role of the underdog, but the Eagles are terrible in the roll of the favorite under head coach Chris Creighton.

Eastern Michigan is 14-29 ATS in its last 43 games as a home favorite.  The Eagles are 7-22 ATS in home games after allowing 275 or more rushing yards last game.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UMass) - a bad team last season that was outscored by 17 or more points per game are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS since 1992.  Bet UMass Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Iowa State/Ohio UNDER 44

Iowa State is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Cyclones have allowed 21 or fewer points per game in three consecutive seasons and are well on their way to that number or better again this season.  They are allowing just 14.5 points per game, 257 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play against Northern Iowa and Iowa thus far.

The suspensions from the betting scandal hurt Iowa State's offense much more than their defense.  The Cyclones are averaging just 21.5 points per game, 270 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play on offense.

Ohio looks like a dead nuts UNDER team as well.  They are averaging 19.0 points per game, 346 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play on offense.  But they have been dynamite defensively, allowing 13.3 points per game, 233 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play.  

These teams are a combined 5-0 UNDER this season with Ohio going for 33, 37 and 27 combined points with their three opponents, and Iowa State going for 39 and 33 combined points against their two opponents.  I see no way these teams to 45-plus combined points Saturday, which is what it's going to take for us to lose this UNDER 44 bet.

Iowa State is 11-3 UNDER in all games over the last two seasons.  The Cyclones are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine non-conference games.  Matt Campbell is 14-2 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of Iowa State.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Kansas State/Missouri UNDER 48.5

The Kansas State Wildcats won 10 games and the Big 12 Championship last season.  They have picked up right where they left off last season with a 45-0 win over SE Missouri State as a 28.5-point favorite and a 42-13 win over Troy as a 14.5-point favorite.

The Wildcats' front seven looks strong again as they have allowed just 38 rushing yards per game and 1.4 per carry through two games. That makes this a bad matchup for Missouri, which clearly relies heavily on the run to move the football.  After failing to cover in a 35-10 win as 27.5-point home favorites over South Dakota, the Tigers barely escaped with a 23-19 win as 21-point home favorites against Middle Tennessee State.  That's the same Middle Tennessee State team that lost 56-7 to Alabama as a 39-point dog in their opener.

Missouri averages 43 rush attempts per game compared to just 22.5 pass attempts per game thus far.  The Tigers struggled to move the football on the ground against lowly Middle Tennessee.  They rushed for just 112 yards on a whopping 46 carries for an average of 2.4 yards per carry.  They won't be able to run against this much stouter K-State defense, either.  K-State held Missouri to 94 rushing yards on 35 carries last year.

For all the offensive struggles Missouri has had through two games, their defense has been stout.  They are allowing 14.5 points per game, 240 yards per game and 3.8 yards per play.  This will be a big step up in class for this Kansas State offense after facing soft SE Missouri State and Troy defenses.  The Wildcats only managed 336 total yards against Missouri last year while holding the Tigers to 222 total yards.  Five turnovers in that game helped it get to 52 combined points, but that won't happen again.

Missouri ranks 92nd in seconds per play at 27.8 seconds while Kansas State is 52nd at 25.0 seconds per play.  I think the Wildcats will take a lot more time in between plays to snap the football in a hostile atmosphere in their first road game of the season.  Missouri will try and slow this game down to give themselves the best chance to win, too.

Missouri is 9-2 UNDER in its last 11 Saturday games.  Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (Missouri) - in a game involving two excellent defensive teams allowing 16 or fewer points per game, in a non-conference game between two Power 5 teams are 34-6 (85%) over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Army +9

The weather is going to favor Army in this one.  There is a 60% chance of rain with 13 MPH winds forecast for this game at UTSA Friday night.  I'll gladly side with the triple-option team in Army against a UTSA team that relies heavily on throwing to move the football given these conditions.

I also think Army is being undervalued due to its fluky 17-13 upset loss at Louisiana-Monroe in the opener as 8.5-point favorites.  They led that game 13-3 with under six minutes to go but ULM got two touchdowns late to steal the victory.  Of course, Army gave it away with five turnovers, losing three fumbles and throwing a pair of interceptions.

Now ball security has been a focal point the rest of the way, and they only committed one turnover in their 57-0 win over Delaware as 39-point favorites last week.  Due to the nature of that blowout, they were able to rest some starters in the second half and remain fresh for this game that will be played on a short week.  That will be a big advantage for a team that returned 17 starters from last year and is loaded again this year.

UTSA has been massively disappointing thus far.  They may finally start coming back to the pack after several successful seasons in a row.  The Roadrunners were upset 17-14 by Houston in their opener.  That's a Houston team that just lost outright to Rice last week, so that loss looks even worse now.  Then last week UTSA only beat Texas State 20-13 as 14-point home favorites in a lackluster performance.

Based on what I've seen from UTSA thus far, they have no business being favored by more than a touchdown against Army.  UTSA also has a hobbled quarterback in Frank Harris, who was seen in a walking boot this week.  Even if he goes he won't be 100%, and that could help explain how they only managed 20 points last week against a pitiful Texas State defense.

Army wants revenge from a 41-38 home loss to UTSA as 2.5-point underdogs last year.  They gave that game away by losing the turnover battle 2-0.  Army won 28-16 at UTSA in 2020 and 31-13 at UTSA in 2019.  They have pretty much owned this head-to-head series, and I expect them to have a great shot to win this game outright Friday night.

UTSA is 2-15 ATS in its last 17 home games with a total set of 42.5 to 49 points.  UTSA is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Army) - after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play last game, with an inexperienced QB as a starter in the first month of the season are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Army Friday.

20* Vikings/Eagles NFC No-Brainer on Minnesota +7.5

Two teams coming off misleading finals square off Thursday night.  The Minnesota Vikings were upset by the Tampa Bay Bucs 20-17 as 4-point favorites when they had no business losing that game when you dive into the box score.  The Philadelphia Eagles won 25-20 at New England to cover as 3.5-point favorites in a game they had no business winning when you look at the box score.

Backing 0-1 SU & 0-1 ATS against 1-0 SU & 1-0 ATS in Week 2 is a winning proposition.  It's simply fading public perception and overreactions from Week 1.  The Vikings are much better than their final score showed against the Bucs, while the Eagles aren't nearly as good as their final score showed against the Patriots.

The Vikings outgained the Bucs 369 to 242, or by 127 total yards.  They also outgained the Bucs 5.9 yards per play to 3.6 yards per play, or by 2.3 yards per play.  They were dominant on the field, but their three turnovers proved costly as the Bucs didn't turn it over once.  The Vikings look to have an improved defense this year, which is something they have been missing.  And the offense is as explosive as ever.

The Patriots basically handed the Eagles two touchdowns with a 70-yard interception return TD and another turnover that set up a short field only minutes later.  The Eagles led 16-0 in a blink of an eye in the first quarter.  But the Patriots were the much better team for the final three quarters.

The Patriots outgained the Eagles 382 to 251, or by 131 total yards.  The Patriots outgained the Eagles 4.9 yards per play to 4.1, or by 0.8 yards per play.  The Eagles struggled to get anything going offensively, and now that teams have film on Jalen Hurts he might not be nearly as good as he was last year.  Hurts only averaged 5.2 yards per pass and 4.1 yards per rush and was sacked three times.

The Vikings want revenge from a 24-7 loss on primetime to the Eagles last year.  That was a rare game decided by more than one score for the Vikings.  In fact, 13 of their last 17 games have been decided by one score dating back to last season.  LB Dean is out for the Eagles, CB Bradberry is doubtful, and DT Cox is questionable to really make their defense short-handed.  The Vikings are nearly fully healthy for this one.  Bet the Vikings Monday.

20* Bills/Jets ESPN No-Brainer on New York +2.5

The Jets finally got their quarterback and have one of the most complete teams in the NFL now.  They arguably have the league's best defense, and Rodgers is loaded with playmakers like Garrett Wilson, Dalvin Cook, Breece Hall and the ageless Randall Cobb.  The only concern with the Packers is their offensive line, but Rodgers' checks at the line of scrimmage and quick release always makes up for offensive line problems.

The Jets are going to have a huge home-field advantage in this game as fans are going nuts about this team in the offseason.  The hype is real, and we're going to see that in Week 1.  The Bills are missing their best pass rusher in Von Miller, who has been placed on the PUP list.  Without him, the Bills won't be able to exploit the one weakness on the Jets in their O-Line.  I also wasn't impressed with the Bills at all in the preseason as Josh Allen struggled to move the ball and put up points when he was in there.  The interior of the offensive line is a weakness, and the Jets will exploit it.

Divisional home dogs in Week 1 are 21-4 ATS since 2009 and a perfect 7-0 ATS since 2018.  Aaron Rodgers made 119 home starts at Lambeau Field in his career and was only an underdog eight times.  Rodgers is 6-1-1 ATS as a home underdog.  Rodgers is also a perfect 9-0 SU on Monday Night Football since 2013.  Week 1 Monday Night Football underdogs are 28-12-1 ATS since 1998.  Finally, this is the anniversary of 9-11, so that will only add to the raucous crowd the Jets will have in support of them.  Bet the Jets Monday.

15* Cowboys/Giants NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New York +3.5

The New York Giants didn't get much credit for going 9-7-1 in Brian Daboll's first season and winning a playoff game.  That's evident by the fact that they have opened as 3.5-point home underdogs to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1.  They are once again getting disrespected, and we'll take advantage here.

I don't think Kellen Moore was the problem last year for the Cowboys, but he was definitely the scapegoat.  I just don't trust Mike McCarthy and don't think it's going to work with him long-term.  The Cowboys have a ton of offensive skill talent, but the offensive line is becoming an issue now after previously being a strength.  They could be without LG Tyler Smith, who was added to the injury report this week.  RG Zack Martin is in the midst of a holdout.  The strength of the Giants is their defensive line, and they will win the battle at the line of scrimmage against Dallas' offensive line.

Daboll didn't have many weapons for Daniel Jones to work with last year, but he should have a few more this year.  They added TE Darren Waller and WR Jalin Hyatt.  The offensive line should also be better with 2nd-round pick C John Michael Schmitz Jr to go along with Pro Bowl LT Andrew Thomas and RT Evan Neal, who has to be better after being a Top 10 pick two years ago.

Divisional home dogs in Week 1 are 21-4 ATS since 2009 and a perfect 7-0 ATS since 2018. The Cowboys are 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in Week 1 under McCarthy.  The Giants went 6-5-1 SU & 10-2 ATS as underdogs under Daboll last season.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Atlanta Falcons -3.5

The Atlanta Falcons will contend for a NFC South title this year.  Desmond Ridder got his feet wet at the end of last season and is now familiar with the offense and ready to hit the ground running in 2023.  They drafted RB Bijan Robinson, who will be an impact player right away and the Falcons should challenge for leading the league in rushing this year.  Drake London and Kyle Pitts are two solid weapons on the outside.

After being ranked dead last in pressure rate each of the last two seasons, upgrading the pass rush was a necessity this offseason.  They did just that by adding DE Calais Campbell, LB Bud Dupree and DT David Onyemata, who along with Grady Jarrett will wreak havoc in opposing backfield this season.

The Carolina Panthers looked terrible in the preseason even when starters were out there against opposing teams' backups.  No. 1 pick Bryce Young will be running for his life behind a terrible offensive line.  RB Miles Sanders and WR's DJ Chark Jr. and Terrace Marshall are highly questionable to play Sunday with injuries.  And the defense doesn't generate any pressure with the exception of LB Brian Burns, who is holding out waiting for a contract extension.  What a me

Atlanta should control this game from start to finish by using long, extended drives on the ground to wear out this Carolina defense.  I like the additions they made this offseason to upgrade their front seven defensively, so they should be able to manhandle this weak Carolina offensive line and make life very difficult on Young.  No. 1 picks at QB making the first start of the season are 0-13-1 SU & 1-13 ATS in their last 14 tries.  The last No. 1 pick to win their first start was David Carr way back in 2002.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Tennessee Titans +3.5

Another year, another chance for the betting public to disrespect Mike Vrabel and the Tennessee Titans.  He and the Titans do the best work when they are counted out, and it looks like they are being counted out again in Week 1 as 3.5-point road underdogs to the New Orleans Saints.

Ryan Tannehill is entering a contract year and has plenty of motivation.  Henry just keeps on ticking and had 1,538 yards and 13 touchdowns last year despite missing his starting left tackler for all but one game.  They signed former first-round pick Andre Dillard to replace Tayler Lewan while also drafting LG Peter Skoronski with the No. 11 pick to upgrade the offensive line.  They signed DeAndre Hopkins at receiver to make a nice 1-2 punch with the talented Treylon Burks on the outside.

The Titans have a great defense led by Jeffery Simmons, Denico Autry and Teir Tart up front, and a stellar safety tandem in Kevin Byard and Armani Hooker protecting the back end.  The pass rush gets a big boost with the return of Harold Landry, who tore his ACL in late August last year and didn't play a single snap in 2022.  He had 12.5 sacks in 2021.

Derek Carr will be making his first start with a new team behind a shoddy offensive line.  Alvin Kamara won't be available as he serves a four-game suspension, and the Saints just haven't been nearly as explosive without their dynamic back on the field.  The New Orleans Saints lack a pass rush defensively, and the Titans have the big coaching advantage with Vrabel over Dennis Allen, especially with all offseason to prepare for this game.

Vrabel is 22-9-1 ATS as an underdog of +3 or higher as a head coach.  Carr is 17-29-1 ATS as a favorite as a starting quarterback.  Allen is 15-38 SU & 21-31-1 ATS as a head coach.  New Orleans is 6-9 SU at home over the past two seasons, and only three teams have won fewer than six home games in that span.  Bet the Titans Sunday.

20* Bengals/Browns AFC North No-Brainer on Cleveland +3

Deshaun Watson shook off some rust last season after returning from an 11-game suspension.  He should hit the ground running in 2023 now that he has two years in the system.  He has one of the best running games to rely on so he doesn't have to be the guy he was in Houston, though he is still capable of being that guy when they need him to.

Speaking of rust, the Cincinnati Bengals could be rusty with Joe Burrow returning from injury.  He didn't play at all in the preseason and I expect them to get off to a slow start.  I also expect the Browns to win the battle at the line of scrimmage in this one as they have the better offensive and defensive lines, and you know the Dawg Pound will be rocking for the season-opener, providing them with a big home-field advantage.

This Cleveland defense was a disappointment last year, but they had some major upgrades this offseason.  They signed DT Dalvin Tomlinson, who is an excellent run-stuffer and can rush the passer.  They also signed another former Viking in DE Za'Darius Smith, who collected 10 sacks for Minnesota last year.

Divisional home dogs in Week 1 are 21-4 ATS since 2009 and a perfect 7-0 ATS since 2018.  Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last five home meetings with Cleveland, including a 32-13 win as 3-point home underdogs last year.  They rushed for 172 yards in that win and outgained the Bengals 440 to 229, or by 211 yards in that home win.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Browns Sunday.

20* 49ers/Steelers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Pittsburgh +2.5

No team was more impressive in the preseason than the Pittsburgh Steelers.  They went 3-0 winning all three games by double-digits while outscoring the opposition 78-32.  Kenny Pickett is ready to go after getting his feet wet as a rookie last year.  He has some great weapons on the outside and is quickly forming a great chemistry with George Pickens.  The Steelers have a great offensive line and solid running game with Najee Harris.

But the strength of the Steelers is their defense, and they have been a different beast when TJ Watt has been healthy.  They went 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS with Watt on the field last year and ranked 6th against the pass, while they were 1-6 and ranked 30th against the pass without him. I think their defense will give Brock Purdy and this average 49ers offensive line fits.  Remember, Purdy is coming back from offseason elbow surgery, so he could show some rust.  And I think having game film on him now gives Mike Tomlin a big edge to try and take away his strengths and make Purdy make mistakes.

Speaking of importance of pass rushers, Nick Bosa is holding out to try and get a new contract.  He and Watt may very well be the two best pass rushers in the game right now.  The 49ers lost to the Falcons without Bosa last year, and badly.  San Francisco's weakness defensively is the secondary, and that will get exploited if Bosa isn't on the field.  Watt will have his way against the 49ers who will be starting a new tackle.

The 49ers are notorious slow starters under Kyle Shanahan, going 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in Week 1.  They were upset by the lowly Chicago Bears on the road last season.  This is only the second time the Steelers have been home underdogs in Week 1 since 2000.  Pittsburgh is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three Week 1 games, including an upset win at Buffalo last year.  The Steelers are 53-30-4 ATS as underdogs under Tomlin, including 16-4-3 ATS as home dogs.  Pittsburgh is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games when the line is +3 to -3.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

15* Auburn/California ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 54

The Auburn Tigers now have the head coach they have been looking for in Hugh Freeze.  He has won everywhere he has gone, including Liberty.  His offenses are some of the best in the country every season, and he is already working his magic at Auburn.

The Tigers racked up 59 points and 497 total yards on UMass in the opener in a game that saw 73 combined points.  Now they face an explosive Cal offense that just put up 58 points and 669 total yards against North Texas in a game that saw 79 combined points.  I don't think we'll have a problem seeing more than 54 combined points in this matchup given what we've seen thus far.

The misconception that Cal is a defensive team is keeping this total lower than it should be.  Cal gave up 27.8 points and 429 yards per game last season.  After having just four starters back on offense last year, the Golden Bears have eight starters back on offense this season including a very good QB in NC State transfer Ben Finley.  They returned their leading rusher and leading receiver, plus four starters and 92 career starts on the offensive line.

The new offensive coordinator is Jake Spatival, who was the Texas State had coach the last four years and ran a wide open, up-tempo system with them that he has brought to California.  That coaching hire is getting overlooked as this appears to be Cal's best offense of the Justin Wilcox era.  He is finally embracing offense because being defensive-minded has not worked for him.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Southern Miss +31

The Florida State Seminoles may very well be national title contenders this season.  But this is a great spot to fade them.  We'll 'sell high' on them after their 45-24 win over LSU on Sunday which was a much closer game than the final score would indicate.  They only outgained LSU by 34 yards and 0.3 yards per play.  Now the Seminoles are working on a short week and this is a massive letdown spot off the LSU win, plus a sandwich spot with their ACC opener against Boston College on deck.

Southern Miss is good enough to stay within 31 points of Florida State even if this wasn't a letdown spot.  Will Hall is one of my favorite head coaches to back in the country.  He got the Golden Eagles to a bowl game in just his second season last year, and they delivered with a 38-24 win over Rice.  They didn't lose a single game by more than 28 points last year, and three of their six losses came by a single score.

Now the Golden Eagles welcome back 15 starters this season including RB Frank Gore, who rushed for 1,382 yards and nine touchdowns last season while averaging 6.1 per carry.  The Golden Eagles have an upgrade at quarterback in Billy Wiles after not getting much out of the position the last few years.  Wiles completed 21-of-28 passes for 267 yards with three touchdowns and one pick in a 40-14 win over Alcorn State as 24-point favorites in their opener.  The defense is a strength after allowing 23.5 points per game last year, and they held Alcorn State to just 226 total yards in the win.

Southern Miss is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games overall, including 6-0 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  Bet Southern Miss Saturday.

15* Houston/Rice Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Rice +8.5

The Rice Owls have improved every season under head coach Mike Bloomgren which is why he is entering his 6th season with the program.  He is one of the more underrated head coaches in the country as earned his chops under David Shaw at Stanford.

The Owls won 5 games last season including upset wins over Louisiana and UAB and were invited to a bowl, so they benefitted from all the extra bowl practices for the first time since 2014.  They nearly upset Houston, FAU and North Texas, losing all three of those games by single score.  Now they have 15 starters back from that team and got a huge addition to the offense in West Virginia transfer QB JT Daniels.  He is by far the best quarterback Rice has had in a long time.

Rice held their own in a 37-10 loss at Texas in the opener as 35.5-point underdogs despite losing the turnover battle 3-0.  They got the cover against one of the best teams in college football, and now they take a big step down in class here against Houston.

Rice will love the opportunity for revenge after losing 34-27 as 17.5-point dogs at Houston last year.  They were only outgained by 3 yards against Houston last year and easily could have won.  I like their chances to cover in the rematch considering all that Houston lost in the offseason, plus I'm just not a fan of head coach Dana Holgorsen.  The Cougars only return 12 starters with their biggest losses coming on offense.

QB Clayton Tune is gone after finishing as the school's 3rd all-time leading passer.  He had a 40-to-10 TD/INT ratio last year while also leading the team in rushing with 544 yards and five scores.  His favorite target in Tank Dell, who had 109 receptions for 1,398 yards and 17 touchdowns last year, is gone.

Houston really slipped defensively last year allowing 32.2 points and 422 yards per game.  I have a hard time seeing the Cougars being much better on this side of the ball considering they lose eight of their top nine tacklers from a year ago.

Houston had a misleading 17-14 win over UTSA in the opener.  They only had 339 total yards while giving up 417 yards to UTSA, but won the turnover battle 3-0 which was the difference.  They were outgained 4.9 yards per play to 5.9 yards per play for UTSA.  They won't be so fortunate against Rice this week.

Plays on any team (Rice) - in the first two weeks of the season, a bowl team from last season that lost their final three games while finishing with a losing record are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS since 1992.  The Owls are 52-30 ATS in their last 82 games as home underdogs.  Holgorsen is 5-15 ATS following an ATS win as the coach of Houston.  Bet Rice Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Connecticut +3

Wrong team favored here.  UConn dealt with a ton of injuries last year yet still made a bowl game.  They went 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their final seven regular season games before losing to Marshall in the bowl game.  They returned 17 starters from that team and have much better health this season.  Jim Mora is already putting his stamp on this program.

UConn was impressive in a 14-24 loss as 14.5-point dogs to NC State in the opener.  They gained 5.2 yards per play on offense and only allowed 5.1 yards per play on defense.  NC State gained 364 yards on 72 plays, so that performance from the defense was special.

The Georgia State Panthers are going the wrong direction.  They fell to 4-8 last season and gave up 31.2 points per game.  They only return 12 starters this season including five on defense.  They lose their best playmaker in WR Jamari Thrash, who caught 61 balls for 1,122 yards and seven touchdowns last season.  Their next-leading receiver caught just 22 balls for 379 yards and six scores.

Georgia State's opener against FCS Rhode Island was very concerning.  They were lucky to win that game 42-35 as 17.5-point favorites.  They were outgained by 96 yards by Rhode Island, giving up 520 yards and 6.9 per play defensively.  UConn is going to score at will on this defense, and I expect the Huskies to get more stops than Georgia State does.  Bet Connecticut Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New Mexico State +10.5

New Mexico State made a bowl game in Jerry Kill's first season with the program last year.  They returned 13 starters this season and should be 2-0, but their misleading 41-30 loss to UMass is keeping them flying under the radar.  They outgained UMass 458 to 389 in that game, but lost the turnover battle 3-0 which was the difference.  The Aggies responded with a 58-21 win over Western Illinois as 21.5-point favorites to play up to their potential, outgaining them 651 to 251 for the game, or by 400 total yards.

Liberty just lost the most profitable ATS coach in the country in Hugh Freeze.  Now the Flames are in rebuilding mode in the first year under head coach Jamey Chadwell.  The cupboard is bare with just eight returning starters.  Liberty is getting too much respect for covering as 8-point favorites in a 34-24 win over Bowling Green in the opener.

That was one of the most misleading finals of the week as Bowling Green should have won outright, but they committed five turnovers and lost the turnover battle 5-1.  Remember, New Mexico State beat Liberty 49-14 last season.  They outgained them by 115 total yards in that game and will certainly give the Flames a run for their money again this year.  Bet New Mexico State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UNLV +38

Michigan is overvalued to start the season due to finally making the four-team playoff last year under Jim Harbaugh.  Now they have expectations from the media, the oddsmakers and the betting public that are very difficult to live up to.

That was evident in their opener as they only beat East Carolina 30-3 as 35.5-point favorites.  They have a ton of players either questionable or out for this game.  That's an ECU team that lost a lot of talent from last year with just 10 returning starters.  They lost their all-everything QB in Holton Ahlers, two 1,000-yard receivers and a 1,000-yard rusher.

Now Michigan must take on an upstart UNLV team that I would have favored over East Carolina.  UNLV went 5-7 last year and would have made a bowl game if not for some injuries, most notably to starting QB Doug Brumfield.  But Brumfield is among 13 returning starters for the Rebels, and they have an upgrade at head coach in former Missouri HC Barry Odom.

The Rebels were very impressive in their opener, beating Bryant 44-14 as 15.5-point favorites.  Brumfield went 11-of-18 passing and also rushed for 49 yards in the win.  The Rebels rushed for 268 yards as a team and should be able to shorten the game with their rushing attack.  ECU rushed for 103 yards on 26 carries against Michigan.

UNLV is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 road games following a blowout win by 28 or more points.  Bet UNLV Saturday.

20* Iowa/Iowa State FOX No-Brainer on Iowa State +4

Everyone wants to fade the Iowa State Cyclones early in the season due to the suspensions from the sports betting scandal.  They opened as 20-point favorites against Northern Iowa and were bet down to -7.  All that sharp money and steam lost as Iowa State won 30-9.

I know they were outgained for the game, but keep in mind Northern Iowa ran 27 more plays than they did.  The more telling stat is Iowa State averaged 5.6 yards per play while Northern Iowa only averaged 3.9 yards per play, so the Cyclones outgained them by 1.7 yards per play.

The suspensions didn't hurt Iowa State defensively as they have one of the best defenses in the country.  They have allowed 21 or fewer points per game in three consecutive seasons.  Northern Iowa QB Theo Day is expected to be one of the best QB's in FCS after having a 26-to-6 TD/INT ratio last year.  They held him to 16-of-34 passing and intercepted him twice.

Iowa was a 24-point favorite against Utah State last week and only scored 24 points, winning by 10.  And they even had incentive to run it up with coordinator Brian Ferentz having incentives in his contract to average 25 or more points per game.

That's a Utah State defense that is expected to be one of the worst in the country this season after allowing 31.2 points per game last year and bringing back only five starters on that side of the ball, and nine starters total.  It just looks like same old Iowa offense after one game, and I struggle seeing them getting margin because of it.

Utah State outgained Iowa 329 to 284 and 4.6 yards per play to 4.2 yards per play, outgaining them by 0.4 yards per play.  Iowa's rushing attack took a big step back last year, and it doesn't look any better this year after rushing for just 88 yards on 36 carries for an average of 2.4 per carry against a Utah State defense that allowed 194 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry last year.

I think the perception is still down on Iowa State after the offseason they had, and this line should be closer to PK.  There's value with Iowa State at anything +3 or higher as a home underdog.  Only Nebraska has more one-score losses than Iowa State over the past three seasons, making them a huge sleeper due to their poor luck in one-score games.  They are due some positive regression.  Matt Campbell is 11-3 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Iowa State.

Each of the last five meetings in this rivalry have been decided by 10 points or less, including three by 3 points or fewer.  Iowa State has outgained Iowa by 105 or more yards in three consecutive meetings and by an average of 145 yards per game.  They held Iowa to 150 total yards last year and 173 total yards the year prior.  Their defense will lock down the Hawkeyes again, and I expect them to pull off this upset at home.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Texas State/UTSA OVER 65.5

Texas State head coach G.J. Kinne is a name you will want to remember.  He comes over from Incarnate Word, where he led the most explosive offense in the FCS scoring 52 points per game and averaging 581 yards per game.  He has brought that offense and several players with him to Texas State, and his tenure is off to a tremendous start.

Texas State upset Baylor 42-31 last week as 26.5-point underdogs.  There was nothing fluky about that result either.  Both teams even left some points on the board and still combined for 73 points.  I think we see another shootout here this week with UTSA.

Auburn transfer TJ Finley completed 22-of-30 passes for 298 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for a score in the win over Baylor.  This Texas State defense is a problem again this season with just four returning starters.  Baylor racked up 524 total yards on Texas State and should have scored more than 31 points.

UTSA returns eight starters on offense from a unit that put up 36.8 points per game and 476 yards per game last year.  That includes Frank Harris, the school's all-time leading passer who completed 69.6% of his passes last year for 4,063 yards with a 32-to-9 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 602 yards and nine scores.

Speaking of leaving points on the board, UTSA lost 14-17 to Houston last week, which is keeping this total lower than it should be.  UTSA had 417 total yards but committed three costly turnovers. They had no problem moving the football, but Houston's defense bent and didn't break.  I guarantee you Texas State's defense will break in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Troy/Kansas State FS1 Early ANNIHILATOR on Troy +17

The Kansas State Wildcats won the Big 12 title last year out of nowhere.  That seems to happen every year where a team from the Big 12 wins it out of nowhere.  But with that title and that 10-win season comes expectations from the media, the oddsmakers and the betting public that are difficult to live up to.

Kansas State is a ball control team that relies on defense to win games.  They don't blow anyone out, and they aren't about to blow out a similar Troy team with a ball control offense that plays great defense.

Troy went 12-2 last season to win the Sun Belt Conference, which is consistently one of the most underrated conferences in the country and routinely produces upsets of Power 5 teams.  Now the Trojans return 12 starters from that team, including QB Gunnar Watson and leading rusher Kimani Vidal, who rushed for 1,132 yards and 10 touchdowns last year.

This line has been inflated largely due to Kansas State covering their opener 45-0 against SE Missouri State, while Troy failed to cover its opener in a 48-30 win over Stephen F. Austin as a 25.5-point favorite.  But Troy easily should have covered when you look deeper into the numbers from that game.

Stephen F. Austin somehow scored 30 points despite only 240 total yards.  That's because Troy committed four turnovers and was very sloppy.  Troy had 540 total yards and a great showing offensively.  They outgained Stephen F. Austin 8.4 yards per play to 4.1 yards per play, or by 4.3 yards per play.  It was a much more dominant performance than the final score showed.

Now Troy is licking its chops at the opportunity to face a Power 5 team.  Troy's two losses last year came at Ole Miss by 18 as 21-point dogs and by 4 at Appalachian State on a hail mary as 13-point dogs.  That's how close they were to being 13-1.  They were only outgained by 87 yards in that 18-point loss at Ole Miss to show what they could do against a strong SEC opponent.  They will be ready for this test against Kansas State.

Kansas State has three starters that are either out or questionable in RT Christian Duffie (35 career starts), WR Keagan Johnson (Iowa transfer) and DT Uso Seumalo.  The Wildcats lost six starters on defense from a year ago, plus they lost their two best playmakers in RB Deuce Vaughn (1,558 yards, 9 TD) and WR Malik Knowles (48 receptions, 725 yards, 2 TD).

Troy is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.  The Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games.  Bet Troy Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Ball State +42.5

This is more of a play against Georgia than it is a play on Ball State.  The Georgia Bulldogs are coming off two consecutive national championships.  They are the kings of college football right now, and with that comes expectations from the media, the oddsmakers and betting public that are very difficult to live up to.

I think Georgia is just going through the motions in the early going this season.  They opened with a 48-7 win over FCS Tennessee-Martin as a 51-point favorite.  So they didn't even score 51 points, which makes it impossible to cover.  They even had 10 points in the final two minutes of that game including a pick-6 to make the margin 41.

Now Georgia has the SEC opener on deck against South Carolina and could be looking ahead to that game and going through the motions against Ball State.  Meanwhile, the Cardinals just played an SEC team in Kentucky last week in one of the most misleading finals and bad beats of the week.

Ball State lost 44-14 to Kentucky despite only getting outgained by 62 yards.  They held the Wildcats to 357 total yards, which is impressive considering Kentucky was expected to have an improved offense with NC State transfer QB Devin Leary among 10 returning starters on offense.

The reason the score was more lopsided than it should have been is because Kentucky had a fumble return TD and a 99-yard kickoff return TD.  The reason it was a bad beat is because Ball State was down 23 in the final seconds and Kentucky threw the ball on four of their final six plays with Mark Stoops knowing the spread, and they scored with six seconds left to win by 30 as 25-point favorites.  Leary was still in the game with Kentucky's starters on that final drive.  

Georgia won't be having its starters playing in the 4th quarter of this one.  I expect them to call off the dogs early and to be getting ready for that SEC opener against South Carolina next week.  Ball State won't be wide-eyed in this one after facing an SEC team already and going toe-to-toe with them for the most part.  Their QB's went a combined 22-of-30 for 223 yards without a pick against a good Kentucky defense, and freshman Kadin Semonza looked to separate himself, going 15-of-21 for 165 yards and a score.

Kirby Smart is 0-7 ATS as a home favorite of 42.5 or more points as the coach of Georgia.  He has never covered in this point spread range, and he won't start this weekend.  Bet Ball State Saturday.

15* Vanderbilt/Wake Forest Early ANNIHILATOR on Vanderbilt +10

Wake Forest lost their star QB in Sam Hartman to Notre Dame in the transfer portal.  They cannot possibly replace him, and they only return 11 starters this season.  The Demon Deacons are finally going to have to go through a bit of a rebuilding year, and we saw that in their opener.

Wake Forest only beat Elon 37-17 as 32-point favorites.  That's a poor showing, and now they are laying double-digits to an improved Vanderbilt team that is off to a 2-0 start this season, beating Hawaii 35-28 and Alabama A&M 47-13.  Vanderbilt returned 15 starters this season and should be one of the most improved teams in the SEC.

Wake Forest has some key injuries in this one as well.  WR Donavon Greene is out, and that's a big blow considering he's the team's leading returning receiver, catching 37 balls for 642 yards and six touchdowns last season.  LB Chase Jones is questionable, and he's the team's leading returning tackler with 74 tackles and 6 TFL last year.

Vanderbilt is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 road games following two or more consecutive ATS losses.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Vanderbilt) - after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more total yards, with an experienced QB returning against a team with an inexperienced QB are 54-22 (71.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* Illinois/Kansas ESPN 2 Total DOMINATOR on OVER 56.5

Kansa is a dead nuts OVER team.  They put up 35.6 points per game last season and allowed 35.5 points per game, averaging 71.1 combined points per game.  They have 10 returning starters on offense so will be explosive again, and their defense won't improve much if at all.

Illinois lost their defensive coordinator from last year, and that's huge considering they had one of the best defenses in the country.  They lost five starters from that defense and three of their top four tacklers.  I do like the prospects of their offense with Ole Miss transfer QB Luke Altmyer along with each of their top two receivers returning in Isaiah Williams and Pat Bryant.

Illinois played a shootout with Toledo in the opener winning 30-28 on a last-second field goal.  The offense looked good with Altmyer, who completed 18-of-26 passes for 211 yards with two touchdowns and one pick, while also rushing for 69 yards on nine carries to show off his dual-threat ability.  But the defense allowed 28 points and 416 total yards to a MAC opponent in Toledo, a clear sign they have taken a huge step back defensively this season.

Kansas put up 48 points and 521 total yards on Missouri State in the opener.  That was even with backup Jason Bean at quarterback.  While he is one of the better backups in the country, the Jayhawks are expected to get their dynamic QB in Jalon Daniels back from injury for this one.  He completed 66.1% of his passes with an 18-to-4 TD/INT ratio last year, while also rushing for 425 yards and seven scores in nine starts.

The weather looks ripe for a shootout with light winds and temps in the 80's tonight at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium.  Kansas is 11-2 OVER in its last 13 games with a total set of 56.5 to 63 points.  Lance Leipold is 14-4 OVER after a win by 21 or more points as a head coach.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Lions/Chiefs 2023 NFL Season Opener on Detroit +6

Travis Kelce hyperextended his knee in practice this week and is doubtful to play Thursday.  He means everything to the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes because he's his security blanket on 3rd down and in the red zone.  Kelce finished with 210 receptions for 1,338 yards and 12 TD last year.  He has topped 83 receptions and 1,000 yards in seven consecutive seasons and hasn't missed a game other than when they were resting starters.

DT Chris Jones is out Thursday due to a holdout as contract negotiations have stalled.  He had 15.5 sacks last year and is their best player on defense.  So the Chiefs are missing two of their three best players to start the 2023 season.  They are extremely vulnerable here as a 6-point favorite in a game they will likely lose outright, and at the very least struggle to get out with a close win.

The upstart Detroit Lions went 8-2 in their final 10 games last year to make a run at the playoffs.  They beat the Packers in Week 17 on the road to keep them out.  They finished 9-8 for their first winning record since 2017.  They scored 26.6 points per game and average 380 yards per game with a Top 5 offense in the NFL.  The defense got better as the season progressed and an influx of talent on that side of the ball should have them improving again this season.  They are also extremely healthy to start the season.

Jared Goff looks as comfortable as he's ever been in Detroit.  He is also 6-0 ATS in Week 1 as a starting quarterback.  The Chiefs are 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games in the first half of the season.  Kansas City is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.  These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Lions.  Detroit is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 games as an underdog.  Dan Campbell is 12-4 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of Detroit.  Bet the Lions Thursday.

20* LSU/Florida State ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 56.5

This will actually be the 3rd meeting in three seasons between Brian Kelly and Mike Norvell.  Florida State played Notre Dame to open the season in 2021 when Kelly was there.  And last year Florida State beat LSU 24-23 to open the season for just 47 combined points.  It's safe to say these two head coaches are familiar with one another and their schemes, and familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  That's amplified when both teams have had all offseason to prepare for one another.

Florida State's defense is loaded with nine returning starters from a unit that gave up 20.6 points per game and 322 yards per game last season.  LSU's defense is loaded as well with seven returning starters from a unit that allowed 22.5 points and 355 yards per game last year.  The advantage goes to these two defenses over the offenses.

The offenses were held in check last year with Florida State getting 24 points and gaining 392 total yards and LSU getting 23 points and 352 total yards.  Now with the rule changes the clock won't stop on first downs and I can't see either team topping 400 yards in this one given the familiarity and the fact that both teams want to establish the run.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (LSU) - in a game involing two teams that had winning records last season in non-conference Power 5 games are 66-20 (76.7%) over the last five seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 56.5 to 63 (LSU) - a good offense from last season that average 400 or more yards per game between two teams with eight or more offensive starters returning in the first two weeks of the season are 23-3 (88.5%) over the last five seasons.  Kelly is 38-21 UNDER when the total is 56.5 to 63 points in all games as a head coach.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on South Alabama +6.5

South Alabama went 10-3 last season with two of the losses coming 32-31 at UCLA and 10-6 to Troy, which won the Sun Belt.  They also lost to Western Kentucky in the bowl and weren't motivated after not getting a shot at a conference title or a better bowl game.

Now South Alabama comes back motivated and returns a whopping 18 starters, making them one of the most experienced teams in the country.  They have nine starters back on offense and nine more back on defense, including each of their top six tacklers from last year.  They scored 31.2 points per game and allowed 21.3 points per game and outgained their opponents by nearly 100 yards per game.

I think it's a great time to 'sell high' on Tulane early in the season.  They came out of nowhere to win the AAC Title last year and also capped it off with an improbable 46-45 win over USC in the Cotton Bowl, coming back from 14 points down in the final minutes.  That was also an unmotivated USC team that had just lost in the Pac-12 Championship and didn't want to be playing Tulane.

The Green Wave have some big losses on both sides of the ball.  They lose RB Tyjae Spears, who rushed for 1,581 yards and 19 touchdowns last year while averaging 6.9 per carry.  They lose each of their top two receivers.  On defense, they lose each of their top five tacklers and won't be nearly as good on either side of the ball after outgaining opponents by 81 yards per game last season.  I think the Green Wave open 2023 a little flat after a historic season last year that will be hard to match.  Bet South Alabama Saturday.

20* UNC/South Carolina ABC No-Brainer on North Carolina -2.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels are loaded this season.  They have 17 returning starters entering the 5th year of the Mack Brown era.  That includes arguably the best quarterback in the country in Drake Maye, who threw for 4,321 yards and 38 touchdowns with only 7 interceptions, while also rushing for 698 yards and seven scores as a freshman last year.

Maye is among nine returning starters on offense.  They have 137 career starts returning along the offensive line and add OL coach Randy Clements, who helped North Texas average 200 rushing yards per game last year.  The only two big losses are their top two receivers, but they add in productive Kent State and Georgia Tech transfers.

The defense has the chance to be one of the most improved in the country with eight starters back from a unit that was a disappointment last year, allowing 30.8 points and 437 yards per game.  They hired former Indiana defensive coordinator Charlton Warren to right the ship.  He has a ton of talent to work with and each of the top five tacklers back from last year.

South Carolina will be one of the least-experienced teams in the country this year.  The Gamecocks return only 10 starters after having 14 and 15 back in Shane Beamer's first two seasons on the job.  Beamer did a good job of getting the most out of those teams, but he has his hands full this year even with QB Spencer Rattler back.

The Gamecocks return six starters on offense and will be larning new schemes under coordinator Dowell Logains, who was the TE coach at Arkansas the last two years.  The Gamecocks lose their leading rusher and have to replace four of their top five receivers.  Chemistry will be an issue on this side of the ball in the early going.

The defense looks even bleaker.  The Gamecocks allowed 28.8 points per game and 405 yards per game last season.  Only four starters return, and they lose seven of their top 11 tacklers.  

The hype on the Gameocks is high after finishing strong last year beating Tennessee and Clemson and also giving Notre Dame a run for its money in the bowl game.  The Tar Heels are flying under radar because they lost their final four games last season after a 9-1 start.  Three of those four losses came by 4 points or fewer.  They have been pissed off all offseason due to that finish and will come out swinging in Week 1.  Bet North Carolina Saturday.

15* Toledo/Illinois Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Toledo +9.5

The Toledo Rockets are the class of the MAC this season.  They won 9 games last year with four of their five losses coming by one score.  So they only lost one game by this kind of margin, which came against one of the best teams in the country in Ohio State.

The Rockets now return 16 starters from that squad and have a ton of talent.  They bring back QB Finn, all of their top rushers and each of their top two receivers.  They also return four starters along the offensive line plus get back Tyler Long from injury and he has 19 career starts with the team.

The Toledo defense returns eight starters from a unit that only allowed 25.1 points and 326 yards per game last season.  They have the defense that can keep them in this game with Illinois, plus they'll make enough plays on offense to give the Fighting Illini all they can handle.

I think this is a great time to 'sell high' on Illinois after a surprising 2022 campaign in which they went 8-5 after losing 19-10 to Ole Miss in the bowl game.  Illinois is going to have a good defense again, but they do lose three of their top four tacklers and coordinator Ryan Walters left for Purdue.

My biggest problem with Illinois is the offense, which loses QB Tommy DeVito and leading rusher Chase Brown, who rushed for 1,643 yards and 10 TD Last year.  Illinois is not going to be able to score enough points to consistently get margin this season, and asking them to win by double-digits to beat us with this offense is asking too much.

Illinois is 17-32 ATS in its last 49 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.  Bet Toledo Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Colorado State +11

The Colorado State Rams will be one of the most improved teams in the country.  Jay Norvell stepped into a tough situation in his first season and the Rams went 3-9.  They played well defensively allowing 26.9 points per game and 355 yards per game, but Norvell didn't have the players to run his air raid system that he perfected at Nevada prior.  Now he does.

The Rams return 15 starters including seven on offense.  They bring back QB Clay Millen, who completed 72.2% of his passes.  Also back are leading receiver Tory Horton (71 receptions, 1,131 yards, 8 TD) and leading rusher Avery Morrow (834 yards, 4 TD, 4.8/carry).  Eight starters are back on defense and this should be one of the top stop units in the MWC.

I'm pretty down on Washington State this season.  The Cougars only have 12 starters back from a team that went 7-6 last season.  They only beat one team that went to a bowl game last year, and they lost 29-6 to fellow Mountain West foe Fresno State in their bowl game.

QB Cameron Ward is back for the Cougars, but he loses each of his top four receivers from a year ago, and chemistry will be an issue.  The defense only brings back five starters from a unit that gave up 402 yards per game last season.  They will take an even bigger step back on this side of the ball.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Colorado State) - a terrible offensive team from last season that scored 14 or fewer points per game, with an experienced QB returning as a starter in the first month of the season are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS since 1996.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

20* UTSA/Houston FS1 No-Brainer on UTSA ML -120

Jeff Traylor is doing a tremendous job at UTSA.  They won the conference title each of the last two seasons going 12-2 in 2021 and 11-3 in 2022.  It should be more of the same here in 2023 with 16 returning starters including QB Frank Harris, who it feels like has been here for a decade.

Harris completed 70% of his pases for 4,063 yards with a 32-to-9 TD/INT ratio last year, while also rushing for 602 yards and nine scores.  Leading rusher Kevorian Barnes (845 yards, 6 TD, 6.3/carry) returns, as do four of the fop five receivers.  Eight starters are back on this explosive offense that put up 36.8 points and 476 yards per game last season.

This has the potential to be one of the best defenses of the Traylor era with eight returning starters on defense.  They only had five back last year and still only allowed 25.9 points per game.  Now they have eight starters back on defense this season and added in a ton of talent at the junior college level.  They have three first or second-team All-USA players returning in NG Brown, LB Moore and LB Ligon.

UTSA will love the opportunity for revenge after losing 35-37 (3 OT) to Houston last year.  I like their chances considering all that Houston lost in the offseason, plus I'm just not a fan of head coach Dana Holgorsen.  The Cougars only return 12 starters with their biggest losses coming on offense.

QB Clayton Tune is gone after finishing as the school's 3rd all-time leading passer.  He had a 40-to-10 TD/INT ratio last year while also leading the team in rushing with 544 yards and five scores.  His favorite target in Tank Dell, who had 109 receptions for 1,398 yards and 17 touchdowns last year, is gone.

Houston really slipped defensively last year allowing 32.2 points and 422 yards per game.  I have a hard time seeing the Cougars being much better on this side of the ball considering they lose eight of their top nine tacklers from a year ago.  

Holgorsen is 3-12 ATS in Saturday home games as the coach of Houston.  Traylor is 12-4 ATS in Saturday road games as the coach of UTSA.  The Cougars are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games.  Houston opened the favorite but now UTSA is favored, and I whole-heartedly agree with that move.  Bet UTSA on the Money Line Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Army -8.5

You'll almost never see a service academy with 17 returning starters because there's usually so much turnover with these programs.  But that's the case for the Army Black Knights this year.  They return 17 starters from a team that was disappointed to finish 6-6 last season with three losses by 1 to Troy, by 6 to Air Force and by 3 to UTSA.  Those were three of the best Group of 5 teams in the country last year.

The Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks are one of the worst Group of 5 teams.  They went 4-8 last season for a second consecutive year under Terry Bowden.  But now Bowden only has 10 returning starters this season and lost a lot to the transfer portal.  That includes QB Chandler Rogers, who left for North Texas after completing 67.5% of his passes last year.

ULM only averaged 22.2 points per game last season and will be even worse off on offense this season.  The Warhawks gave up 34.4 points per game last season and won't be much better on defense with only five starters back.

We saw this matchup last season as Army blasted Louisiana-Monroe 48-24 and gave up 441 rushing yards to the Black Knights.  It will be more of the same in the rematch, and I see another double-digit win coming for Army as they run all over the Warhawks.  Bet Army Saturday.

15* Rice/Texas CFB ANNIHILATOR on Rice +35.5

The Rice Owls have improved every season under head coach Mike Bloomgren which is why he is entering his 6th season with the program.  He is one of the more underrated head coaches in the country as earned his chops under David Shaw at Stanford.

The Owls won 5 games last season including upset wins over Louisiana and UAB and were invited to a bowl, so they benefitted from all the extra bowl practices for the first time since 2014.  They nearly upset Houston, FAU and North Texas, losing all three of those games by single score.  Now they have 15 starters back from that team and got a huge addition to the offense in West Virginia transfer QB JT Daniels.  He is by far the best quarterback Rice has had in a long time.

Texas is getting a lot of hype this year as it seems everyone thinks they're back and will win the Big 12.  But I still don't trust Steve Sarkisan even with all the talent he has brought here.  And it's asking a lot for Texas to win by more than five touchdowns to cover this number in their opener on Saturday.  I'll gladly fade the hype.

Plays on any team (Rice) - in the first two weeks of the season, a bowl team from last season that lost their final three games while finishing with a losing record are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Rice Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on UMass +35.5

Head coach Don Brown is a UMass legend.  It was a rebuilding year in his first season back with the program last year as the Minutemen went 1-11.  Now he has his players in place and 15 returning starters in his second season back, and we've already seen what this team is capable of.

In Week 0 UMass upset New Mexico State, which made a bowl game last year, 41-30 as 7-point underdogs.  UMass rushed for 197 yards in the win but also look like they found their quarterback in Georgia Tech transfer Taisun Phommachanh, who completed 10-of-17 passes for 192 yards.  He also led them an the ground with 96 rushing yards on 17 attempts and a score and I love his dual-threat ability.  Brown is a defensive guy and will come up with a good game plan to slow down Auburn.

Hugh Freeze is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country and has made me a lot of money over time.  But he won't be hitting on all cylinders early in his first season on the job at Auburn in 2023.  The Tigers went 5-7 last year and while they are experienced with 17 returning starters, it's going to take them some time to learn the new systems on offense and defense under new coordinators.

I think this UMass offense can punch in a couple scores and that will be enough to cover this 35.5-point spread with a total of 51.5.  If UMass gets to 14 they will cover, and I think they can do that.  Auburn isn't scoring 49 points on this Don Brown defense, especially not with a running clock and the game being shortened.  The Tigers will call off the dogs in the 2nd half if need be for us to get this cover.

UMass is an impressive 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. SEC opponents.  Bet UMass Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Wisconsin -27.5

The Wisconsin Badgers got their guy.  Luke Fickell proved he's one of the best head coaches in the country by taking Cincinnati to the College Football Playoff becoming the first coach to take a Group of 5 team to the big dance.  Now he steps into a tremendous situation here at Wisconsin.

The Badgers are loaded with talent and experience with 18 returning starters this season.  They add in SMU transfer QB Tanner Mordecai, who completed 66% of his passes for 7,152 yards and a 72-to-22 TD/INT ratio.  The Badgers have been missing a quarterback for years, but now they have their guy.  He'll thrive in OC Phil Longo's system after Longo produced record-breaking offenses at North Carolina the last four years.

Wisconsin always has an elite defense and that won't change this year.  They only had three starters back on defense last year and still only allowed 20.2 points per game.  Now they have eight starters back on D this year and the last two times they had eight back they allowed 16.2 and 17.4 points per game.

The Buffalo Bulls are in a world of hurt this year.  They return just 10 starters for head coach Maurice Linguist.  They were fortunate to get to a bowl last year and won their final two games by a combined 3 points.  We saw Buffalo get a taste of a Big Ten school in the opener last year as they lost 31-10 at Maryland.  It will be an even bigger step up in class here for them against Wisconsin, and I fully expect the Badgers to win by four-plus touchdowns.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

20* Louisville/Georgia Tech ESPN No-Brainer on Georgia Tech +7.5

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets quietly went 4-3 down the stretch last year with interim head coach Brent Key.  They pulled upsets as 22-point dogs at Pitt, 3- point dogs to Duke, 3-point dogs at VA Tech and 21-point dogs at North Carolina.  This despite losing QB Jeff Sims after six games to injury.  The Yellow Jackets were playing down the stretch with two terrible backups quarterbacks in Zach Gibson and Zach Pyron.

Now Key has earned the full-time job here and has some chemistry with this team as his players absolutely love the alum.  He brings in one of the most talented quarterbacks in the country in Haynes King from Texas A&M.  Injuries ended his season two years ago, and he was replaced midway through the season in what was a lost year for the Aggies last season.

Key welcomes back 12 starters and has added other impact transfers through the portal.  A few names to keep an eye on are RB Trey Cooley from Louisville, WR Christian Leary from Alabama and WR Dominick Blaylock from Georgia.  The latter two were buried on the depth chart and came here to get playing time and show off their talents.  

Defensively, Key brought in LB Andrew White from Texas A&M and CB Kenyatta Watson from Texas.  Seven starters return on defense, and four starters return along the offensive line while adding in Princeton transfer Connor Scaglione.  Having the O-Line be a strength will allow these new skill players to flourish.

Jeff Brohm has eventually been successful everywhere he has gone.  He turned around Western Kentucky and Purdue both, but it didn't happen overnight.  That will be the case here as it's going to take some time to build this Louisville program.  The offense won't be clicking in Week 1 learning the new schemes, and the defense loses 33.5 of the 50 sacks they had last year.  Louisville will be lucky to escape Atlanta with a win, let alone a cover.  Bet Georgia Tech Friday.

20* Florida/Utah ESPN No-Brainer on Utah -6

A lot of the talk surrounding this game is with Utah QB Cam Rising.  He likely won't be announced in or out until right before game-time.  He did say he feels 'damn good' on Monday, and it would be an added bonus if he plays.  I'm here to tell you it's not going to matter either way.

Utah has one of the best head coaches in the country in Kyle Whittingham.  He has had all offseason to prepare for Florida, and great coaches have an even bigger advantage with more time to prepare.  This is a loaded Utah team with 16 returning starters including the top offensive and defensive lines in the Pac-12, and the top linebackers and defensive backs in the league.

As you can see, the defense is loaded with nine returning starters from a unit that allowed 21.4 points per game last year.  The offense returns seven starters when you include Rising.  Backup Brandon Rose is questionable as well, possibly leaving it to third-string Bryson Barnes.  He got forced into action last year and played well, completing 64.9% of his passes for 430 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 116 yards and 5.8 per carry.  Whoever is under center will have the benefit of playing behind what Whittingham calls his most talented O-Line ever.

The drop off from Rising to Barnes wouldn't be as big as the drop off from Anthony Richardson to Graham Mertz at quarterback for Florida.  Richardson was the 4th pick in the draft last year and was a huge dual-threat, rushing for 6.3 per carry and 9 TD on ground.  Mertz was highly ranked out of high school but was a major disappointment in his four seasons at Wisconsin.  He had a 38-to-26 TD/INT ratio in his career there and consistently makes poor throws, while also not being a dual-threat.

Second-year head coach Billy Napier has his hands full this season with just 11 returning starters from a team that went 6-7 last year.  The offense is going to take a step back, and the defense is going to be poor again after allowing 28.8 points and 411 yards per game last season.  Only five starters return on defense, and the Gators lose each of their top five tacklers from last year.

Utah is a legit Pac-12 title contender and will be hungry for revenge after blowing the game in Florida last year in a 26-29 defeat.  Now the Utes get to host the Gators inside Rice-Eccles Stadium Thursday night.  They have one of the best home-field advantages in the entire country, and that is amplified when playing a week night game.  

Utah is 26-2 SU at home over the past five seasons with an amazing 25 of those wins coming by 6 points or more, and 24 by 7 points or more.  Bet Utah Thursday.

20* CFB GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida International +11

Florida International was one of the worst teams in college football last season.  They did a good job of getting to 4-8 with only 11 returning starters and a first-year head coach in Mike MacIntyre.  He is the king of turning programs around.

Indeed, MacIntyre went 1-11 in his first year at San Jose State and in his 3rd year got them to 11-2 and ranked inside the Top 25.  They went 4-8 in his first year at Colorado but in Year 4 they made the Pac-12 Championship Game.

Last year MacIntyre took over a Panthers team that had gone 0-8 in conference play the previous season.  They were a dog in all 11 FBS games and a double-digit dog in nine of them but pulled off three upsets, including against this same Louisiana Tech team.

Now the Panthers return 12 starters, move up 50 spots in experience rankings and are in Year 2 under MacIntyre and are familiar with the systems with both coordinators back.  Six of the top eight tacklers are back on what should be one of the most improved defenses in the country.  QB Grayson James returns as a nice dual-threat to lead the offense.

But this is more of a play against Louisiana Tech than it is a play on Florida International.  They wish they had Skip Holtz back at this point.  Sonny Cumbie had a disastrous first season in Ruston as the Bulldogs went 3-9 with their three wins coming against SF Austin, UTEP and Middle Tennessee.  Six of their nine losses came by double-digits, and they were upset by FIU and Charlotte to boot.

They have 12 returning starters but will be without their stud RB in Marquise Crosby for the opener.  He rushed for 918 yards and 9 TD last season while averaging 5.0 per carry.  Hank Bachmeier comes in from Boise State at QB, but he was a disaster for the Broncos last season and that team improved greatly once he was benched.

While the LA Tech offense will be respectable under Cumbie's guidance, he just isn't a defensive-minded head coach.  That was evident last year with the Bulldogs allowing 37.9 points per game and 469 yards per game.  They gave up 6.1 yards per carry on the ground.  It's hard to expect much improvement considering they return just 4 starters on defense and lose eight of their top 10 tacklers.

This game will likely be decided by single-digits either way, so there's tremendous value in 'buying low' on the Panthers after already upsetting the Bulldogs at home as 6-point dogs last year.  Bet Florida International Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on UTEP/Jacksonville State OVER 53.5

Both UTEP and Jacksonville State are pretty loaded on offense but suspect on defense.  As a result, I am siding with the OVER in the season opener between two teams that aren't familiar with one another at all.

Jacksonville State makes the move from FCS to FBS this season.  Rich Rodriquez is in his second season here and guided the Gamecocks to a 9-2 record last season.  The offense was electric putting up 36.2 points per game while the defense gave up 390 yards per game.

Rodriquez has nine returning starters on offense including electric QB Zion Webb, who is a dual-threat who rushed for 647 yards and 13 touchdowns last year.  He has each of his top two receivers back, leading rusher Malik Jackson (818 yards, 8 TD, 7.1 YPC) and four starters on the offensive line.  They defense has seven starters back but is undersized for the FBS level, especially up front.

UPTE had eight starters back on an offense that put up 385 yards per game last season.  That includes QB Gavin Gardison, who threw for 2,044 yards and 11 touchdowns.  Leading receiver Tyrin Smith is back after 712 receptions for 1,039 yards and 7 touchdowns last year.  Deion Hankins rushed for 701 yards and averaged 5.0 per carry last season and returns.  Four starters and 122 career starts return along the offensive line.

UTEP gave up 27.0 points per game last season and while seven starters return, the Miners lose five of their top seven tacklers from a year ago.  That includes their two best edge rushers in Cal Wallerstedt (95 tackles, 8 sacks) and Jadrian Taylor (9.5 sacks).  They will miss these two while trying to wrangle in Webb of Jacksonville State.

The Gamecocks and their opponents combined for at least 56 points in eight of their 11 games last season.  Dana Dimel is 15-5 OVER in conference road games as the coach of UTEP.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia Eagles ML -120

Note: Scroll down to the bottom for my FREE Super Bowl Prop Bets

This is a great matchup for the Philadelphia Eagles.  They will be able to run the football at will on the Kansas City Chiefs on offense, and they are perfectly set up to stop them defensively with their ability to defend the pass.  The Eagles are better everywhere than the Chiefs except at quarterback and will win the battle at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.

The Eagles rank 4th in the NFL at 153.9 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry.  The Chiefs allow 4.5 yards per carry on the season.  And they faced the 2nd-easiest schedule of opposing rush offenses, so they haven't seen anything like this physical, read-option attack of the Eagles.  Philadelphia faced a Top 10 schedule of opposing rush defenses, making their numbers even more impressive.

The Chiefs won't be able to run on Philadelphia and likely will abandon the running game for the most part.  Mahomes isn't close to 100% and that showed against the Bengals as he didn't scramble until the game was on the line.  He either moved up in the pocket or rolled out to the right, so the Eagles will be prepared for those two moves.  The Eagles rank 1st in the NFL allowing just 171.0 passing yards per game, 1st in sack percentage (11.49%) and 1st in sacks per game (4.1).  The Chiefs have two of the four worst offensive tackles in the NFL in terms of pressures allowed.  Mahomes is going to be under duress for four quarters in this one.

A lot has been made about how the Eagles played the easiest schedule in the NFL.  And while true, they handled their business.  A counter argument is that the Eagles are actually 7-1 against teams with winning records this season while outscoring them by a total of 115 points, or by an average of 14.4 points per game.   They had an easy path to the Super Bowl and will be fresh as a result after getting a bye, beating the Giants by 31 and the 49ers by 24 while receiving another bye prior to the Super Bowl.  They couldn't possibly be more fresh.

Kansas City consistently found itself in one-possession games this season, including both playoff games with a 7-point win over the Jaguars and a 3-point win over the Bengals in which they are aided by the refs.  They also had more injuries pile up in that win over the Bengals.  They are without WR Hardman, while both Toney and Smith-Schuster are less than 100%.  They also have CB Sneed and LB Gay banged up.  The Eagles are in much better shape health-wise.

This line moved towards the Eagles on the opener and I agree with it.  When the line moves towards one team in the Super Bowl off the opener, those teams have gone 11-4 ATS over the last 15 tries.  The only reason the Eagles aren't -3 here is because the Chiefs have Mahomes.  But the Eagles are better everywhere else and have no weaknesses.  I expect them to lead from start to finish in this one as a result, just as they have for most of the season when Hurts has been on the field.

The Chiefs are 0-7 ATS following an ATS win this season.  Kansas City is 3-11-1 ATS in its last 15 games following a SU win.  The Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine playoff games.  The last 9 reigning MVP's (Mahomes) who played in the Super Bowl all lost dating back to 2001.  Bet the Eagles on the Money Line in Super Bowl 57 Sunday.

FREE Super Bowl Prop Bets:

These are my favorite prop bets in order from strongest to weakest, so adjust your bet sizing accordingly. Don't go too crazy on these. They can all be found at DraftKings.

Eagles 1H ML: -120

OVER 1.5 4th Down Conversions: -160

Kelce Anytime TD: -125

Eagles Most Sacks: -125

Both Teams to Score 1+ Rushing TD: +125

UNDER 3.5 Made FG's: -165

Largest Lead UNDER 14.5 Points: -135

Kelce OVER 78.5 Receiving Yards: -120

Sanders Anytime TD: +125

Chiefs UNDER 99.5 Rushing Yards: -110

Sanders OVER 61.5 Rushing Yards: -110

Will Both Teams make a 33-plus Yard FG: NO -115

Smith Longest Reception OVER 23.5: -125

Eagles OVER 2.5 Sacks: -140

2-Point Conversion Attempt: YES +120

Super Bowl MVP Bets:

Sanders 22/1

Smith 30/1

20* Bengals/Chiefs AFC Championship No-Brainer on UNDER 48

Patrick Mahomes is hobbled and not himself.  Travic Kelce is nursing a back injury and questionable.  And the Cincinnati Bengals are missing three starters along the offensive line.  All these offensive injuries to both teams have me liking the UNDER in the AFC Championship Game.  Plus, temps will be around 20 at kickoff and only getting colder as the night progresses with double-digit MPH winds as well.

Cincinnati has played four consecutive defensive battles and has one of the most underrated defenses in the NFL.  Their last four games have seen 40, 43, 41 and 37 combined points.  They have allowed 24 or fewer points in eight consecutive games, including 18 or fewer in six of those.  They rode their defense to the Super Bowl last season and are doing it again this season.

Maybe the bigger surprise is just how well Kansas City has played defensively down the stretch.  They have allowed just 16.8 points per game in their last four games and 297.4 yards per game in their last five games.  They haven't allowed 350 or more yards in any of their last six games.  They will have a good game plan to slow down Joe Burrow and this Cincinnati offense in this rematch from a 24-27 road loss.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 4th meeting between the Chiefs and Bengals in the past two seasons.  They know each other inside and out, and that favors the defenses more than the offenses.  That's especially the case here since both defenses are very healthy while both offenses are banged up.

The UNDER is 9-1 in Bengals last 10 playoff games.  The UNDER is 13-3-1 in Bengals last 17 games vs. AFC opponents.  The UNDER is 43-19-2 in Bengals last 64 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Kansas City.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Chiefs last seven home games.  Cincinnati is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 games as a road underdog.  Kansa City is 6-0 UNDER after scoring 25 or more points in two consecutive games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

FREE 6-Point Teaser: 49ers +8.5/Bengals +7.5

20* 49ers/Eagles NFC Championship No-Brainer on San Francisco +3

I've been waiting for a +3 on the 49ers all week and it has finally started to pop up at multiple books this morning.  Grab a +3 if available or buy it to +3 (-120) or better.  The 49ers are showing tremendous value catching a full field goal against the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship Game.

The 49ers are the better team in my opinion.  They have gone 12-0 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They have scored at least 31 points in eight of those 12 games, and they have allowed an average of just 14.9 points per game during this winning streak.  They have the best defense in the NFL and an underrated offense with Brock Purdy, who has a 16-to-3 TD/INT ratio in leading the 49ers to each of their last eight victories.

The Eagles have played the easiest schedule in the NFL this season.  That schedule has been very easy down the stretch as they have faced the Giants three times, the Saints, Cowboys, Bears, and Titans in their last seven games.  This is a big step up in class for them and easily the toughest opponent they have faced all season.

One key matchup that favors the 49ers is the ground game.  The Eagles have one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL and have allowed 106 or more rushing yards in 12 of their last 14 games overall.  They allowed 99 and 87 yards in the other two instances.  The 49ers rely heavily on running the football as they have rushed for at least 153 yards in six of their last seven games overall.  They will be able to get what they want on the ground, which is going to continue to take a lot of pressure off Purdy.

The Eagles need to be able to run the ball to be successful on offense.  In their last three losses, they managed just 67 rushing yards against the Saints, 87 against the Cowboys and 94 against the Commanders.  Well, now they are up against a 49ers defense that ranks 2nd allowing just 79.0 rushing yards per game and 2nd at 3.4 yards per carry.  The 49ers will shut down their running game and make Jalen Hurts try and beat them through the air.  He is the worse passer of these two quarterbacks.

Kyle Shanahan is 11-1 ATS in January games as the coach of San Francisco.  I give the edge to Shanahan over Nick Sirianni and it's not even close when you compare playoff experience between the two.  I trust Shanahan to make some key decisions here that will help put the 49ers in position to win, and Sirianni to make some mistakes for the Eagles with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

FREE 6-Point Teaser: 49ers +8.5/Bengals +7.5

25* NFL Divisional Round GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers -4

This line should be closer to 49ers -7.  The Dallas Cowboys are getting too much respect for their win in prime time Monday Night over the Tampa Bay Bucs.  They beat a washed up Tom Brady who was playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.  Dak Prescott had a career game, and just everything that could go right for Dallas did.

Now the Cowboys are in a terrible spot playing their 4th consecutive road game and on a short week.  These haven't been short trips either as all four have been 700-plus miles for the Cowboys.  They won't have much left in the tank this week for the 49ers, who played last Saturday and have had two extra days to rest and prepare for this game than the Cowboys.  This is where the Cowboys' season comes to an end in blowout fashion.

They have to play the hottest team in the NFL in the 49ers, who have won 10 consecutive game the last six of which have come with Brock Purdy at quarterback.  The 49ers have scored 35-plus points in five of the six games started by Purdy with the lone exception being against the Seahawks in his second start on the road.  They also kneeled at the 1-yard line to end that game.  Purdy has a 16-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season and is averaging 9 yards per attempt.

The 49ers rank 5th in scoring offense at 27.3 points per game, 5th in total offense at 373.4 yards per game and 3rd at 6.0 yards per play.  The 49ers rank 1st in scoring defense at 16.7 points per game, 2nd in total defense at 302.3 yards per game and 4th at 5.0 yards per play.  They are the most complete team in the NFL with almost zero weaknesses.  They are also as healthy as they have been all season with all of their key weapons and defenders healthy.

Things won't come nearly as easy for Dak Prescott as they did against the Bucs.  The Cowboys have a suspect offensive line and the 49ers have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL, plus they give up nothing against the run.  Purdy is playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, which will negate Dallas' pass rush, which is the strength of their team.  Micah Parsons won't be all over Purdy like he was all over Tom Brady.  The Cowboys have a vulnerable secondary that Purdy will be able to exploit, plus the 49ers will have their way on the ground against the Cowboys, too.  They have rushed for 153 or more yards in all six games with Purdy under center.

Dallas was not playing well prior to the Tampa Bay game.  They lost 26-6 at Washington in Week 18 against third-string QB Sam Howell.  They beat a Titans team that was resting starters and playing a 3rd-string QB and needed to pull away in the 4th quarter just to do that.  They needed a late turnover from the Eagles to beat them with backup QB Minshew at home.  They lost to the Jaguars in OT on the road.  And they needed a last-second drive to beat the lowly Houston Texans by 4 at home.  They were playing like shit prior to that win over the Bucs, which was clearly the aberration.

Meanwhile, the 49ers have gone 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with seven wins by 13 points or more while outgaining nine of their 10 opponents.  The lone exception was against the Raiders on January 1st which was clearly a letdown spot.  The 49ers spent NYE in Vegas and probably partied too hard, thinking they'd just have to show up to win against a backup QB.  That performance can be forgiven.  When they have been locked in, they have been absolutely dominant.  The 49ers have outscored their opponents by an average of 16.2 points per game during their 10-game winning streak.

The 49ers have a huge advantage in the coaching department with Shanahan over McCarthy, too.  Shanahan is 10-1 ATS in January games as the coach of San Francisco.  The 49ers are 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS at home this season outscoring opponents by 13.7 points per game.  San Francisco is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 home games dating back to last season.  The 49ers won 23-17 at Dallas in the playoffs last season.  The Cowboys have exactly one playoff road win since 1993.  Dak is 1-4 ATS in his playoff career.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

15* Bengals/Bills AFC ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo -5.5

These are two teams coming off misleading results in the Wild Card Round.  The Bills should have beaten the Dolphins by more when you look at the numbers, while the Bengals should have lost outright to the Ravens.  Those misleading results have provided us with some line value to pull the trigger on the Buffalo Bills this week.  They should be closer to 7-point favorites against the Bengals at home this week when you factor in everything.

The Bills have won eight consecutive games and are playing with a lot of motivation for Damar Hamlin, plus the fact that they've never won a Super Bowl and feel like they should have won last year.  They are on a mission this season, and it's the defending AFC champion Bengals standing in their way this week, which only adds to the motivation.

The Bills felt like they just had to show up to win last week, and it showed after jumping out to a 17-0 lead they found themselves in a dog fight with the Dolphins.  They survived 34-31, but it was a bigger blowout than the final score.  The Bills outgained the Dolphins by 192 yards and held to them to just 231 total yards, which should make it impossible for them to score 31 points.  But the Bills committed three turnovers that set up easy scoring opportunities for the Dolphins.  Look for them to clean it up this week.

The Bengals beat the Ravens 24-17 at home last week.  They won despite getting outgained by 130 yards and racking up only 234 yards of total offense.  That came a week after the Bengals beat the Ravens 27-16 in Week 18 despite getting outgained by 129 yards and being held to 257 yards.  Their luck runs out this week on the road in a hostile environment against a much better team in the Bills.

A big reason the Bengals have struggled on offense the past two weeks averaging just 245.5 yards per game against the Ravens is because of a banged-up offensive line.  The Bengals will now be down three starters on the offensive line this week against the Bills.  Joe Burrow is going to be under duress the entire game.  He was sacked a ton in the playoffs last year, but his defense and his kicker bailed him out.  The defense won't stop this potent Bills offense, and he won't be bailed out this week when he's getting sacked more than a handful of times.  And this is coming from one of the biggest Burrow believers you will find.  I just think this is too much for him to handle this week.

Buffalo averages 6.1 yards per play on offense and allows 5.0 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.1 yards per play this season.  Cincinnati averages 5.4 yards per play on offense and allows 5.5 yards per play on defense, breaking dead even on a yards per play basis.  This shows Buffalo is by far the superior team.  

The Bills are 7-1 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 12.7 points per game.  Sean McDermott is 11-1 ATS following a win by 3 points or less as the coach of Buffalo.  The Bills are 7-0 ATS following a win by 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  Bet the Bills Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Chiefs UNDER 53

This total is way too high given how well both of these defenses have been playing down the stretch, especially the Chiefs.  The improvement of this Kansas City defense has been flying under the radar.  They have allowed just 17.8 points per game and 285 yards per game in their last four games overall.

The Jaguars have allowed just 13 points per game and 284 yards per game in their last four games overall.  That includes the 30 points they allowed to the Chargers last week, which was very fluky because it came with five turnovers from the Jaguars who gave the Chargers a ton of short fields en route to a 27-0 lead.  That game saw 61 combined points with a big Jaguars comeback, but it shouldn't have since the Chargers only had 320 total yards while the Jaguars had 390 in comeback mode.  That result has inflated this total this week.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and this will be the 2nd meeting between the Chiefs and Jaguars at Arrowhead Stadium this season.  The Chiefs won that first meeting 27-17 for just 44 combined points.  The Jaguars were held to just 315 total yards in defeat.  The Chiefs moved the ball well, but I expect the Jaguars to be much better defensively in the rematch.  And Kansas City is good at sitting on the ball and milking clock with a lead, which is why they always tend to play in closer game because they quit scoring and let teams back in it.  That makes them a great UNDER team.

The UNDER is 6-2 in Chiefs eight home games this season with an average of just 44.5 combined points per game.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Jaguars last 11 games after allowing 30 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Jaguars last seven games vs. good offensive teams that average 6 or more yards per play in the second half of the season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

25* NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Bucs +3

The Dallas Cowboys haven't won a road playoff game since January of 1993.  Tom Brady is 7-0 in his career against the Cowboys including a 19-3 win at Dallas earlier this season.  The Cowboys failed to reach the red zone once in that first meeting.  The Cowboys are 1-4 on grass this season while going 11-1 on turf, and they will be outdoors on grass here where their speed isn't as much of a factor.

Dak Prescott is also 0-4 ATS in the playoffs in his career.  Prescott tied for the NFL lead in interceptions this season despite missing five games.  He was terrible in a game the Cowboys were trying to win last week against Washington.  He went 14-of-37 for 128 yards with one touchdown and one interception while averaging just 3.5 yards per attempt.

The Cowboys lost that game 26-6 to the Commanders as 7-point road favorites.  Their 15 'drives' went like this; fumble, 3 and out, 3 and out, pick-6, 3 and out, 3 and out, TD, 3 and out, 3 and out, 3 and out, 3 and out, turnover on downs, 3 and out, 3 and out, 3 and out.  That doesn't look like a team that is playoff-ready, and certainly not one that should be laying points on the road.

Tom Brady had his best game of the season against the Carolina Panthers in Week 17 with a spot in the playoffs on the line.  Brady went 34-of-45 for 432 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions to lead the Bucs to a 30-24 win.  He has all of his weapons healthy and may be getting back some key pieces along the offensive line.  The Bucs were able to rest starters for the majority of the game against the Falcons last week and will be fresh and ready to go.

I trust Brady over Prescott, and I also trust this Tampa Bay defense over this Dallas defense.  The Cowboys gave up 40 points and 503 yards to the Jaguars, 34 points and 442 yards against the Eagles and 26 points and 309 yards against the Commanders in three of their last four games.  The other game be thrown out as the Titans rested their starters in Week 17.

The Bucs rank 13th in scoring defense at 21.1 points per game on the season and you can throw out the 30 points they gave up to the Falcons in Week 18 because they rested starters on defense.  The Bucs also rank 9th in total defense at 324.3 yards per game and 10th at 5.1 yards per play.  They held the Cowboys to 3 points and 244 total yards in that first meeting back in Week 1 this season.

Teams that have played the tougher schedule than their opponent on the season have been great bets in the wild card round.  The Bucs played the 13th-ranked schedule, while the Cowboys plays the 29th.  The team that played the tougher schedule is 54-28-2 ATS since 2002 in the wild card round.  If the difference in SOS is 10 or more, the team that played the tougher schedule is 30-9-1 ATS.

The Bucs are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games after gaining less than 250 total yards in their previous game.  Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Plays against favorites (Dallas) - in a game between two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a loss by 10 points or more are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Bucs Monday.