20* Cowboys/Raiders ESPN No-Brainer on Dallas -3

I love the spot for the Dallas Cowboys this week.  They are off their bye week and had extra time to deal with the death of Marshawn Kneeland.  Now they will be playing inspired football for their teammate, and their defense will look nothing like it has up to this point in the season, which has been one of the worst units in football.

The Cowboys could have as many as five key contributors available that they haven't had this season.  They traded for Quinnen Williams and he and Kenny Clark will form one of the best run-stuffing duos in the NFL moving forward.  They get back pass-rusher DeMarvion Overshown from IR, and he is the player the Cowboys believed in enough to trade away Micah Parsons.  They get CB Shavon Revel to make his season debut.  S Malik Hooker should be back from IR and felow S Donovan Wilson will be back as well.  This is going to be one of the most improved defenses in the NFL moving forward.

The Cowboys have an elite offense and are fully healthy on offense to boot.  They rank 4th in scoring offense at 29.2 points per game and 4th in total offense at 378.4 yards per game.  Their offensive line is fully healthy, and they have their full compliment of weapons for Dak Prescott.  This will remain one of the best offenses in the NFL moving forward.

The Raiders are an absolute dumpster fire.  They are 2-7 on the season and traded away their best receiver in Jakobi Myers, who is already making big plays for the Jaguars.  Their offense is embarrassing, ranking 31st in scoring offense at 15.4 points per game and 30th in total offense at 272.7 yards per game.  Basically stop Brock Bowers and Ahton Jeanty and you stop the Raiders, which will be Dallas' focus.  QB Geno Smith was noticeably hobbled in the 2H against the Broncos last week and may not be 100%.  He will be playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL especially now that they are down two starters in LT Kolton Miller and RG Jackson Powers-Johnson.

The Raiders just don't have the firepower to keep up with the Cowboys, and I think the defense is a little overrated due to a pretty easy schedule of opposing offenses.  When they have faced some of the better offenses in the NFL they have allowed 41 points to the Commanders, 40 to the Colts, 31 to the Chiefs and 30 to the Jaguars.  I expect the Cowboys to get to 30 tonight, and it will be more than enough to cover this 3-point spread.  Bet the Cowboys Monday.

20* Chiefs/Broncos AFC West No-Brainer on Kansas City -3.5

I love the spot for the Kansas City Chiefs.  They are coming off their bye week and motivated to chase down the Broncos in the AFC West.  This is a must-win game for them, so I know we are going to get their best effort, and it should be good enough to cover this 3.5-point spread on the road.

Andy Reid is 22-4 SU off a bye.  The Chiefs are 11-1 SU against AFC West opponents with extended prep time under Mahomes.  Reid and Mahomes are 31-7 SU with extended prep time together since 2019.

The Chiefs are rolling right now with one of the best offenses of the Mahomes era now that he has all of his weapons healthy.  The Chiefs have averaged 29.2 points per game since getting Xavier Worthy back from injury.  Since then they've gotten back Rashee Rice from suspension, and he has been a walking touchdown.  And now LT Josh Simmons returns from a month absence due to personal reasons, so the Chiefs are fully healthy on offense with the exception or RB Isaiah Pacheco, who they can work around.

Year in and year out, the Chiefs have one of the best defenses in the NFL as long as Steve Spagnolo is calling the shots.  That is the case again this season as the Chiefs rank 4th in scoring defense at 17.7 points per game and 6th in total defense at 291.8 yards per game.  They are better than the Broncos on both sides of the football right now.

The Broncos are 8-2 this season despite trailing in all 10 games at some point.  They are one of the most fraudulent 8-2 teams in NFL history.  They have recent lucky, narrow wins over the Raiders by 3, the Texans by 3, the Giants by 1 and the Jets by 2 just in their last five games alone.  Those are some very bad teams, and they all had the Broncos on the ropes.  This is where their luck runs out.

The Broncos are a banged up, tired team playing for an 11th consecutive week to start the season.  They are without two key starters on defense in 2024 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Pat Surtain and leading tackler Alex Singleton (89 tackles), and both of Singleton's backups are on IR.  The Chiefs will throw all over this Denver defense not having to deal with Surtain.  Riley Moss is one of the most overrated, slowest corners in the NFL and will get burnt time and time again.

Bo Nix has been a major disappointment and has failed to make that Year 2 leap.  He put up just 10 points on the Raiders, 18 on the Texans and 13 on the Jets in recent weeks.  He is a liability for Sean Payton, one of the best play callers in the NFL who is just limited on what he can do with Nix, who averages just 6.1 yards per attempt.  And now the offense is banged up with RB JK Dobbins on IR.  Dobbins has been by far their most productive back with 772 rushing yards and 5.0 per carry.  It's a bigger loss for them than what is being factored into the line.  Bet the Chiefs Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Packers/Giants OVER 43.5

Matt LaFleur has taken a ton of heat the last two weeks for poor offensive performance.  But his entire team and coaching staff have had his back, and I expect them to respond in a big way this week for LaFleur.  The offense in particular will shine for a number of reasons.

The biggest is the fact that the Giants have one of the worst defenses in the NFL in their current state.  They have allowed an average of 32.3 points per game and 401.3 yards per game in their last four games during their current 4-game losing streak.  They are decimated with injuries defensively playing without SS Nubin, LB Thibodeau, DE Nunez-Roches and LB Golston right now.  Two other starters in CB Adebo and LB Okereke are questionable, and they have 5 other defenders on IR.

The Packers got good news on the injury front on offense as Romeo Doubs and Matthew Golden are both likely back this week.  That will give Jordan Love his full compliment of weapons with the exception of TE Tucker Kraft and Jayden Reed, who are both on IR.  Josh Jacobs should have a massive game on the ground against a Giants defense that is allowing 187 rushing yards per game in their last four games.  Their 5.5 yards per carry allowed is the worst mark in the NFL.

Jameis Winston is an 'Over' quarterback.  He will try to make throws that most quarterbacks won't, and he will push the ball down the field every chance he gets.  That will lead to some big plays on offense but also to some catastrophic plays and possible defensive touchdowns, or at the very least set the Packers up for easy scores.

This is a very low total for a game involving the Giants right now.  The Giantsand their opponents have combined for 44 or more points in five consecutive games, including 51 or more in four of them.  The Packers will do the heavy lifting here similar to their 35-25 win at Pittsburgh in their last road game that saw 60 combined points.  In their road game prior, they beat the Cardinals 27-23 for 50 combined points.  Their offense just seems to play better when on the highway this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Green Bay Packers -7

Note: I love a 6-Point Teaser on the Packers -1/Ravens -1.5 this week.

The Green Bay Packers will be highly motivated for a victory this week after suffering consecutive home losses to the Panthers by 3 and Eagles by 3.  Sometimes it does a team good to get away from the negative media at home and hit the road.  We last saw the Packers beating the Steelers 35-25 in their last road game.

Matt LaFleur has taken a ton of heat the last two weeks for poor offensive performance.  But his entire team and coaching staff have had his back, and I expect them to respond in a big way this week for LaFleur.  The offense in particular will shine for a number of reasons.

The biggest is the fact that the Giants have one of the worst defenses in the NFL in their current state.  They have allowed an average of 32.3 points per game and 401.3 yards per game in their last four games during their current 4-game losing streak.  They are decimated with injuries defensively playing without SS Nubin, LB Thibodeau, DE Nunez-Roches and LB Golston right now.  Two other starters in CB Adebo and LB Okereke are questionable, and they have 5 other defenders on IR.

The offense has been terrible without Jaxson Dart this season.  He is out with a concussion this week, and while Jameis Winston is a solid backup, he just doesn't have much to work witho.  Malik Nabers, Cam Skattebo and Beaux Collins are on IR, and the next-most productive receiver has been Darius Slayton, but he is out this week as well.  This is an embarrassing group of receivers he has to throw to, and there's going to be at least one or two Winston mistakes that cost their team.

The best unit on the field by far is this Green Bay defense.  The Packers rank 9th in scoring defense at 19.6 points per game, 5th in total defense at 287.2 yards per game and 2nd at 4.8 yards per play allowed.  Their starters are fully healthy and ready to dominate this week.

The Packers got good news on the injury front on offense as Romeo Doubs and Matthew Golden are both likely back this week.  That will give Jordan Love his full compliment of weapons with the exception of TE Tucker Kraft and Jayden Reed, who are both on IR.  Josh Jacobs should have a massive game on the ground against a Giants defense that is allowing 187 rushing yards per game in their last four games.  The Packers should continue to pile on the points late in this game to make a statement for LaFleur.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati Bengals +5.5

I love the spot for the Bengals this week.  They are off their bye week and have everything in front of them.  This is a must-win game if they want to make the playoffs with Joe Burrow likely to return later on in the season.  They only trail the Steelers by two games for 1st place in the AFC North and can cut that lead to one with a win here.  They would also hold the tiebreaker having swept the Steelers as well.

Cincinnati has been competitive since trading for Joe Flacco.  All four games were decided by single-digits, including the last three by 5 points or fewer.  Flacco has led the Bengals to 33 points and 470 yards in a 2-point win over the Steelers, 38 points and 398 yards in a 1-point loss to the Jets and 42 points and 495 yards in a 5-point loss to the Bears.  He won't mind getting another shot at this Pittsburgh defense that he just lit up recently.

This Pittsburgh defense is overrated.  The Steelers rank 28th in total defense allowing 376 yards per game.  Injuries have hit their defense hard as they will be without LGB Cole Holcomb, LB Alex Highsmith, CB Darius Slay, FS Elliott and CB Trice Jr. this week.  They have eight defenders on IR alone.  They are getting old, and teams know they just have to stop TJ Watt and they are doing so by chipping him at the highest rate in the NFL.  The Bengals will deploy the same strategy.

The Steelers also rank just 29th in total offense at 280.7 yards per game.  They are getting outgained by nearly 100 yards per game as a team.  That's why they are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL right now and I keep looking to face them because they aren't as good as their 5-4 record would suggest.  I successfully faded them with the Chargers in a 25-10 loss in Los Angeles in primetime last week.  And I'm fading them again this week as Flacco and company have the goods to keep up with the Steelers in another shootout that will likely be decided by 5 points or fewer for a 4th consecutive week.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bengals/Steelers OVER 49.5

The Bengals are a dead nuts OVER team.  Joe Flacco has revived the offense, but this is arguably the worst defense in the NFL in its current state.  The Bengals can't help but play in shootouts because they have to try and outscore their opponents.

The Bengals are 6-1-1 OVER in their last eight games finishing with 58 or more combined points in six of those eight games.  In their last three games with Flacco, they went for 64 combined points with the Steelers, 77 with the Jets and 89 with the Bears!  This total of 49.5 is very short for a game involving the Bengals right now.

Flacco has led the Bengals to 33 points and 470 yards against the Steelers, 38 points and 398 yards against the Jets and 42 points and 495 yards against the Bears.  He won't mind getting another shot at this Pittsburgh defense that he just lit up recently.

Aaron Rodgers won't mind facing this defense to get back on track, either.  The Bengals rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 33.2 points per game, dead last in total defense at 426.6 yards per game and 30th at 6.5 yards per play.  They are without their best pass rusher in DE Trey Hendrickson and without one of their best run stuffers in 1st-round pick DE Shemar Stewart, who was just placed on IR.

This Pittsburgh defense is overrated.  The Steelers rank 28th in total defense allowing 376 yards per game.  Injuries have hit their defense hard as they will be without LGB Cole Holcomb, LB Alex Highsmith, CB Darius Slay, FS Elliott and CB Trice Jr. this week.  They have eight defenders on IR alone.  They are getting old, and teams know they just have to stop TJ Watt and they are doing so by chipping him at the highest rate in the NFL.  The Bengals will deploy the same strategy.

No question Rodgers is on his last leg, but he should find plenty of success here against the Bengals again.  The Steelers went for 31 points and 396 total yards against Cincinnati in that first meeting.  I just don't see any way this isn't a shootout with how poor and banged up both of these defenses are right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Chargers -2.5

The Chargers are one of the best, most underrated teams in the NFL.  I backed them last week as my 25* NBC SNF GOTY in their 25-10 win over the Steelers.  And I'm back on them this week for many of the same reasons.

Too much is being made of the offensive line injury to Joe Alt.  Not enough is being made of Justin Herbert being one of the best, most mobile QB's in the NFL and it just doesn't matter that much.  Especially since they traded for Trevor Penning from the Saints, and their backups in Pipkins and Hart are pretty good.  This is a loaded offense with playmakers in Gadsden, Allen, McConkey, Johnston and Vidal.  It's the best weapons Herbert has had with the Chargers.

This is also the best defense the Chargers have had in a long time.  They rank 8th in scoring defense at 20.3 points per game and 4th in total defense at 280.2 yards per game.  They are as healthy as they have been all season defensively and may be completely back to full strength this week if S Molden and CB Still play, who are both listed as questionable.  They have recently gotten DE Hand, LB Perryman and LB Mack back from injuries, and you would be hard-pressed to find a better defense than this one in its current state.

The current state is impressive.  In their last three games, the Chargers held the Vikings to 10 points and 164 total yards, the Titans to 6 offensive points and 206 total yards, and the Steelers to 10 points and 221 total yards.  Now they will shut down this banged up Jaguars offense this week.

The Jaguars just blew a 19-point 4th quarter lead to Davis Mills and the Houston Texans last week.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice, and I question if they'll be able to get back up off the mat for this game.  The Jaguars only managed 213 total yards while allowing 412 total yards to the Texans, getting outgained by 200 yards.

Injuries are mounting up for the Jaguars.  They are without their two best playmakers at receiver in WR Brian Thomas Jr. and WR Travis Hunter.  They are also without RT Anton Harrison and CB Jourdan Lewis.  This is a bad Jaguars defense as it is ranking 20th in scoring defense at 24.4 points per game and 23rd in total defense at 344.6 yards per game.  What this defense has given up in recent weeks is alarming.  The Jaguars allowed 36 points to the Texans, 29 to the Raiders and 35 to the Rams in their last three games.  

I love the fact that the Chargers have a bye on deck next week, so they will be 'all in' trying to get this win to go into their bye week on a positive note and right on the heels of the Denver Broncos for the AFC West title.  They could find themselves tied atop the division with the Broncos with a win and a Denver loss to Kansas City this week.

Since 2019, teams who blew a 14-plus point lead in the 4th quarter of their previous game are 5-13 SU & 6-12 ATS in their next game.  It has happened four times since Week 6 alone and those teams are 0-4 SU.  Jim Harbaugh is 26-8 SU & 24-9-1 ATS when playing in the Eastern or Central time zone as a head coach, including 17-3 SU & 15-5 ATS in the East.  The Chargers are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games following a primetime game.  Bet the Chargers Sunday.

20* Commanders/Dolphins NFL Spain Early ANNIHILATOR on Miami ML -125

The Dolphins are much healthier than the Commanders this week which is the biggest reason I am on them.  I also like what I've seen from the Dolphins in recent weeks playing hard for head coach Mike McDaniel.  The Commanders are a complete dumpster fire right now and it's only going to get worse before it gets better due to all their injuries.

The Dolphins are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall.  They beat the Falcons 34-10 on the road while holding the Falcons to just 213 total yards.  They did lose 28-6 to the Ravens at home, but that was a misleading final as they were -3 in turnovers and just struggled once they got deep in Baltimore territory.  They were only outgained by 6 yards by the Ravens and held them to 338 yards.  Last week, they dominated the Bills from the jump in a 30-13 win as 8-point home underdogs.

With their next three games against the Commanders, Saints and Jets, the Dolphins have a great opportunity to make a late-season surge and a run at the playoffs.  They will remain focused this week with this being a standalone game in Spain, and I fully expect them to handle their business.

The Commanders have been in a downward spiral since fumbling late in a 25-24 home loss to the Bears.  Jayden Daniels got hurt in his next game, a 44-22 road loss to the Cowboys.  Marcus Mariota has been no match for anyone.  The Commanders lost 28-7 at Kansas City in their next game.  Daniels returned in a 38-14 blowout home loss to the Seahawks, but they left him in the game late in the 4th quarter and he suffered another injury.

Last week, the decimated Commanders lost 44-22 at home to the Lions.  They came away from that game even more banged up.  Offensively, they are without QB Daniels, WR McClaurin, WR Burks, WR Brown and WR McCaffrey.  Mariota just doesn't have a chance with his lack of playmakers.

The Commanders came into the season with the oldest defense in the NFL and it's showing.  They are without DE Armstrong, DE Jean-Baptiste, DE Wise Jr., DE Jackson, CB Amos, FS Harris and CB Lattimore right now.  Then DT Payne got suspended for this game for throwing a punch at St. Brown of the Lions last week.  What a mess.

Washington ranks 29th in scoring defense at 28.0 points per game, 30th in total defense at 394.6 yards pre game and 31st at 6.6 yards per play.  Those numbers have skyrocketed in recent weeks due to these injuries.  They are allowing 38.5 points per game and 451.3 yards per game in their last four games.  Tua and the Dolphins will continue to light up this defense this week, and I trust the Dolphins to be able to handle Mariota and his lack of playmakers.  

Mariota is 0-7 SU in his last seven starts when listed as an underdog.  The Commanders are the first team to lose four straight games by 21 or more points in 23 years.  Oddsmakers haven't caught up to just how bad this team is right now.  We'll take advantage.  Bet the Dolphins on the Money Line Sunday.

20* Texas/Georgia ABC No-Brainer on Texas +6

I love the spot for Texas this week.  The Longhorns are playing with double-revenge after losing twice to Georgia last season, once in the regular season and once in the SEC Championship Game.  The Longhorns are off a bye week, so they have had two full weeks to prepare for Georgia, which will be playing for a 3rd consecutive week.

Texas was a 4-point favorite at home last year when they were upset 30-15 by Georgia.  That was a misleading final as they were only outgained by 24 yards.  Even more misleading was their 22-19 (OT) loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game as 3-point favorites.  The Longhorns outgained the Bulldogs by 112 yards and should have won.  Now the Longhorns go from being favored in both meetings last season to a 6-point underdog in the rematch this season.  There's clearly some line value here from that fact alone.

Georgia has been very fortunate to be 8-1 this season.  In fact, the Bulldogs have spent more time trailing (over 201 minutes) during a 9-0 or 8-1 start for any FBS team since UCLA way back in 2005.  The Bulldogs have narrow wins over Florida by 4, Ole Miss by 8, Auburn by 10 only after punching in a TD in the final seconds, and Tennessee by 3.

Arch Manning was banged up early in the season, but he has gotten healthier and is coming off his two best games of the season.  He threw for 346 yards and 3 TD against Misssissippi State and 328 yards and 3 TD against Vanderbilt.  He'll be even healthier and more prepared to beat Georgia off a bye week.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Texas Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on New Mexico State/Tennessee OVER 61.5

Tennessee is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Volunteers rank 4th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.7 seconds.  What is impressive about that is they have been involved in several blowouts in their favor, so they continue to run fast-paced offense no matter the game script.  We saw that when they were trying to tack on a TD late to cover the spread against UAB when they could have taken knees.

Tennessee is 7-2 OVER in all games this season finishing with 57 or more combined points in all nine games including 65 or more in seven of them.  It should have been 64 or more in all eight of nine games but they ran out of time at the goal line against Alabama three games ago in a game that landed on 57.  This total of 61.5 is very low for a game involving the Vols.  They went for 85 combined points with Georgia, 75 with Miss State, 71 with Syracuse, 65 with Arkansas, 57 with Alabama and 90 with Kentucky.

The Vols rank 3rd in scoring offense at 43.6 points per game, 1st in total offense at 504.1 yards per game and they average 6.8 yards per play.  Joey Aguilar was been a great transfer QB from Appalachian State, completing 65.7% of his passes for 2,737 yards with a 21-to-8 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for two scores.

This Tennessee defense is a problem, though.  The Volunteers have been without their two best cornerbacks for most of the season and opponents have taken advantage of them through the air.  They allowed 44 points and 304 passing yards to Georgia, 371 passing yards to UAB, 34 points to Miss State, 31 points and 496 total yards to Arkansas, 37 points to Alabama, 34 points and 476 total yards to Kentucky and 33 points to a previously dead Oklahoma offense.

Tennessee is going to come close to covering this total on its own against a New Mexico State defense that hasn't seen an offense in the same stratosphere talent-wise to Tennessee.  And this New Mexico State defense has been torched for 301 passing yards by WKU, 283 by Missouri State and 344 by New Mexico.

UAB managed to score 24 points behind 371 passing yards on this Tennessee defense.  New Mexico State is a pass-happy team that cannot run the ball and should find some success through the air as well to contribute to this total.  The Aggies rank 65th in passing offense at 234 yards per game.  QB Logan Fife has been solid with 2,066 passing yards and 11 TD.  The Aggies also like to play fast ranking 39th in tempo this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tennessee -39.5

The Volunteers rank 4th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.7 seconds.  What is impressive about that is they have been involved in several blowouts in their favor, so they continue to run fast-paced offense no matter the game script.  We saw that when they were trying to tack on a TD late to cover the spread against UAB when they could have taken knees.

The Vols rank 3rd in scoring offense at 43.6 points per game, 1st in total offense at 504.1 yards per game and they average 6.8 yards per play.  Joey Aguilar was been a great transfer QB from Appalachian State, completing 65.7% of his passes for 2,737 yards with a 21-to-8 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for two scores.

New Mexico State has played the 141st-ranked schedule in the country.  The Aggies still have terrible defensive numbers despite playing a very weak schedule of opposing offenses.  And this New Mexico State defense has been torched for 301 passing yards by WKU, 283 by Missouri State and 344 by New Mexico.  You can just imagine what this Tennessee offense is going to do to them.

Tennessee is off a bye week with an outside chance of making the 12-team playoff as their will likely be at least one or two SEC teams getting in with 3 losses.  That means they need style points, and we know Josh Heupel is the king of running up the score late into the 4th quarter.  He just doesn't take his foot off the gas, as we've seen in his time here at Tennessee in these late-season non-conference games.

In 2024, Tennessee beat UTEP 56-0 as a 41-point favorite.  In 2023, Tennessee beat UConn 59-3 as a 35-point favorite.  In 2022, Tennessee beat UT-Martin 65-24 as a 38-point favorite.  And in 2021, Tennessee beat South Alabama 60-14 as a 28-point favorite.  So the Volunteers are 4-0 ATS in these late-season non-conference games under Heupel winning all four by 42 points or more.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on East Carolina -2.5

East Carolina is very much alive in the AAC Championship race among five different teams that have just one conference loss.  Memphis is not one of those teams.  Memphis was upset by UAB a few weeks ago and then upset by Tulane last week to pretty much get eliminated from playoff contention.  I question how the Tigers will get back up off the mat now with that realization.

East Carolina is hitting its stride with three straight blowout wins over Tulsa by 14, Temple by 31 and Charlotte by 26.  The Pirates just had a bye last week and have actually had two byes in the last four weeks, so they are as fresh and prepared as they can be for this game against Memphis.  The Tigers are running on fumes playing for a 5th consecutive week with three hard-fought one score games against UAB, USF and Tulane in there.  The spot really favors the Pirates at home here.  Bet East Carolina Saturday.

15* AAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on FAU/Tulane OVER 63

Florida Atlantic is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.1 seconds.  The Owls are a pass-happy offense behind QB Caden Veltkamp, who is completing 66% of his passes for 2,600 yards and 20 TD on the season.  They also have one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 130th in scoring at 34.6 points per game and 105th in total defense at 412.3 yards per game allowed.

Tulane is coming off two high-scoring games in a 48-26 loss to UTSA for 74 combined points and a 38-32 win over Memphis for 70 combined points.  They allowed 391 passing yards to UTSA and 368 to Memphis, so you can bet Veltkamp is going to have a big day through the air to keep up with Tulane in a shootout.  Tulane is going to get whatever it wants offensively this week.  

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's, 5 MPH winds and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Sun Belt Saturday Total DOMINATOR on App State/James Madison OVER 53.5

James Madison needs style points to make the 12-team playoff.  The Dukes are 8-1 this season with their only loss on the road to Louisville, so they are very much alive for the 12-team playoff.  And we've seen them tack on extra scores late in going 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall.

They beat Old Dominion 63-27 for 90 combined points, beat Texas State 52-20 for 72 combined points and beat Marshall 35-23 for 58 combined points.  This total of 53.5 is pretty low for a game involving James Madison right now that is looking to get margin with each win.

Appalachian State is a good OVER partner.  The Mountaineers rank 9th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.0 seconds.  They also have one of the worst defenses in the country, and that has been on display in recent weeks allowing 31.7 points per game in their last seven games.

Their offense has been solid ranking 50th in total offense at 414.6 yards per game.  They really are a pass-happy attack ranking 19th at 288.2 yards per game.  That means more clock stoppages on incompletions when they have the ball.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on NC State +15

I love the spot for NC State this week.  The Wolfpack are coming off a bye and have actually had two byes in the last four weeks.  They couldn't be fresher than they are right now, and they should be prepared to give Miami a run for its money this week.

We saw what the Wolfpack were capable of last time out upsetting Georgia Tech 48-36 as 5.5-point home dogs to hand the Yellow Jackets their first loss of the season.  They will be motivated for a 6th win to get bowl eligible, and they would love nothing more than to wreck Miami's season.

This NC State offense has the goods to keep up with Miami in a shootout.  The Wolfpack rank 45th in scoring at 32.4 points per game, 28th in total offense at 438.6 yards per game and 21st at 6.7 yards per play.  CJ Bailey is one of the more underrated QB's in the country, completing 70.7% of his passes with a 19-to-7 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 4 scores and averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt.  Miami hasn't seen many offenses this good.

The Hurricanes have been playing with their food recently.  They suffered upset losses to Louisville at home and SMU on the road in two of their last four games.  In their other two games, they needed big 2H's to pull away from both Stanford and Syracuse, two of the worst teams in the ACC.  They only led Syracuse 14-3 in the 3rd quarter and they were tied 7-7 with Stanford at halftime in their last two home games.

While NC State is off a bye week, Miami will be playing for a 5th consecutive week and I question how much they have left in the tank.  The Hurricanes are good, but they should not be favored by more than two touchdowns against this rested, underrated NC State team today.  Bet NC State Saturday.

15* ACC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on NC State/Miami OVER 55.5

NC State is a dead nuts OVER team with an explosive offense and a terrible defense.  The Wolfpack are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 58 or more combined points in six of those eight games, including 66 or more in five of them.  This total of 55.5 is very short for a game involving the Wolfpack.

This NC State offense has the goods to keep up with Miami in a shootout.  The Wolfpack rank 45th in scoring at 32.4 points per game, 28th in total offense at 438.6 yards per game and 21st at 6.7 yards per play.  CJ Bailey is one of the more underrated QB's in the country, completing 70.7% of his passes with a 19-to-7 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 4 scores and averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt.  Miami hasn't seen many offenses this good.

NC State's defense ranks 110th in the country in scoring allowing 30.6 points per game, 120th in total defense at 424.8 yards per game and 118th at 6.8 yards per play.  I expect this Miami offense to have one of its best games of the season.  The Hurricanes also will be going for style points to try and make the 12-team playoff so don't be surprised if they continue scoring late into the 4th quarter, which they have done against both Syracuse and Stanford recently.  But I expect NC State to hang and for this to be a back and forth shootout.  The forecast looks great for one with temps in the 70's, single-digit winds and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Michigan State +7.5

Penn State is coming off three straight gut-wrenching losses.  I question if they can get back up off of the mat with an interim head coach in time to face a rested Michigan State team that is coming off its bye week.

After losing 25-24 at Iowa in their first game without James Franklin, the Nittany Lions were competitive with Ohio State for a half before falling 38-14.  Then they had Indiana on the ropes last week before giving up a last-second touchdown in a deflating 27-24 loss.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

Michigan State is 3-6 this season and still has bowl eligibility in its sights.  I think the Spartans will regroup and be motivated for their first Big Ten victory of the season.  They have been hard-luck losers in narrow losses to Minnesota, Michigan and Nebraska.  They actually outgained Minnesota 467 to 301, or by 166 total yards last time out and lost by 3.  They are one of the most underrated teams in the country due to their poor record despite having decent stats.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

20* Sun Belt TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Texas State/Southern Miss OVER 65

Texas State is a dead nuts OVER team going 4-0 OVER in its last four games overall finishing with 72 or more combined points in all four games.  This total of 65 is actually pretty short for a game involving Texas State right now.

The Bobcats rank 10th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.1 seconds.  They are 26th in scoring offense at 34.7 points per game and 11th in total offense at 477.2 yards per game.  The problem is they don't play defense, which is why they have lost five straight despite scoring at least 30 points in four of the five.  They rank 129th in scoring defense at 34.8 points per game.

Southern Miss ranks 20th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.8 seconds.  So these are two Top 20 teams in tempo, and there will be a ton of possessions and more opportunities for points as a result.  This Southern Miss offense has been lighting up opposing defenses for 32.3 points per game this season.  The Eagles have scored at least 38 points in five of their last eight games and I expect them to reach or exceed that mark to pave the way in us cashing this OVER 65 ticket.

Texas State had two starters on defense suspended after a brawl at the end of their 42-39 loss to Louisiana last week.  That will make an already putrid Bobcats defense that much worse.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's, no wind and no rain expected.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on USC -6.5

USC is a wagon at home and a terrible bet on the road, especially when traveling East.  The Trojans are 19-5 SU 14-10 ATS at home under Lincoln Riley, including 13-8 ATS as a home favorite.  The Trojans have two losses this season and will need an at-large berth if they want to make the 12-team playoff.  They need to win out and do it with style, so don't be surprised to see Riley keep pouring it on tonight to go for those much-needed style points hosting Iowa Saturday.

The Trojans are scoring 49.2 points per game, averaging 569 yards per game and 8.9 yards per play at home this season.  They are allowing just 18.8 points per game, 305.8 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play at home.  They are outscoring opponents by 31 points per game and outgaining them by 263 yards per game and 3.8 yards per play at home.

USC crushed Michigan 31-13 while outgaining the Wolverines by 173 yards at home earlier this season.  They crushed Northwestern 38-17 while outgaining the Wildcats by 202 yards last week at home.  Michigan and Northwestern are similar teams to Iowa, and I think the same fate will happen for the Hawkeyes this week as they just don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Trojans, who are going to put up a big number.

Iowa had an outside shot of making the 12-team playoff had it beaten Oregon last week.  Well, the Hawkeyes fell short in heartbreaking fashion 18-16 at home.  That's an Oregon team that was down its top three receivers and still outgained Iowa by 134 yards.  The Ducks did so in punishing fashion rushing for 261 yards on 36 carries on the Hawkeyes.  It was the type of loss that can beat a team twice as Iowa's hopes and dreams of making the playoff or winning the Big Ten are now gone.

Now Iowa has to try and get back up off the mat to face a more potent, healthier USC offense that has shown it can run the football as well rushing for 224 yards on Michigan, 202 on Nebraska and 173 on Northwestern.  I question how much they'll have left in the tank, and these Big Ten teams traveling out to the West Coast have fared terribly all season.  Iowa is in over its head here.  Bet USC Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on New Mexico -14

Colorado has quit on the season and just wants it to be over at this point.  The Rams are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with all five losses coming by double-digits, including four losses by 17 points or more.  They lost 28-0 at Wyoming two games ago, then returned from their bye week and got stomped 42-10 at home by UNLV last week.

It won't go any better for them against a New Mexico team that is coming off its bye week and motivated to win a MWC Championship.  The Lobos are only one game out of first place and the two teams atop the MWC in Boise and San Diego State play each other this week.  The Lobos won't be taking the Rams lightly.

New Mexico went into the bye off two impressive wins over Utah State 33-14 at home and UNLV 40-35 on the road as 4.5-point dogs.  That's the same UNLV team that just smoked Colorado State 42-10 last week for a recent common opponent.  The Rams will offer no resistance here.  Bet New Mexico Saturday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Arkansas/LSU OVER 56

Arkansas is a dead nuts OVER team going 7-2 OVER in its nine games this season.  The Razorbacks and their opponents have combined for at least 57 points in all nine games.  This total of 56 is very low for a game involving the Razorbacks.

They hung 35 points on Mississippi state, 42 on Texas A&M and 35 on Ole Miss in SEC play to prove they can score even against good SEC defenses.  They will score against this banged up, overrated LSU defense that just allowed 49 points at home to Texas A&M in their last home game.

I like the fact that LSU is going to Michael Van Buren at QB.  He is more of a dual-threat who played well at Mississippi State in place of an injured Blake Shapen last year before transferring to LSU.  Garrett Nussmeier has been banged up and ineffective, and Van Buren's dual-threat ability will open up things for this LSU offense moving forward.

Of course, it helps that LSU is taking a big step down in class of opposing defenses here after having to face the gauntlet of Alabama, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Ole Miss in their last five games.  Not to mention they also played Florida and Clemson early in the season, so their offensive numbers have been tamed.  They will have success against an Arkansas defense that ranks 124th in scoring at 33.3 points per game, 122nd in total defense at 430.6 yards per game and 123rd at 6.2 yards per play.  This has the makings of a back and forth shootout in Baton Rouge with temps in the 70's, no wind and no precipitation in the forecast.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Arkansas/LSU SEC ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas +6

I love the spot for the Arkansas Razorbacks.  They needed a bye week and got it last week after a brutal SEC schedule where they kept coming up short.  Now they've had two weeks to regroup and prepare to beat LSU for their first SEC victory.  I fully expect them to pull off the upset this week.

Arkansas keeps showing up week after week for interim head coach Bobby Petrino despite tough loss after tough loss.  In fact, this might be the best 2-7 team I've ever seen.  Six of the seven losses came by single-digits with the lone exception being a loss to Notre Dame.  They lost by 3 to Mississippi State, by 9 to Auburn, by 3 to Texas A&M, by 3 to Tennessee, by 1 to Memphis and by 6 to Ole Miss.  They easily could have won all six of those games, so they are grossly undervalued right now due to their record.

I also think it's a terrible spot for LSU.  They had their 'all in' game last week against rival Alabama with their interim head coach.  They played hard for him in their first game since firing Brian Kelly, but now I question how motivated they'll be to face Arkansas a week later.  It's an LSU program in turmoil and players already have one foot out the door.  They will also be switching to backup QB Michael Van Buren to try and spark the offense.

I don't think Van Buren and company have the firepower to keep up with Arkansas QB Talen Green.  The Razorbacks are loaded on offense, ranking 8th in total offense at 484.4 yards per game and 4th at 7.3 yards per play.  They put up 42 points on Texas A&M and 35 on Ole Miss, and those numbers are made even more impressive considering the tough schedule of opposing defenses faced this season.  Green is motivated to improve his NFL draft stock and will show out against this banged up, tired LSU defense.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UTSA/Charlotte OVER 59.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off in this matchup between UTSA and Charlotte Saturday afternoon.  UTSA is 7-2 OVER in all games this season finishing with 66 or more combined points in seven of those nine games.  Charlotte is 6-1 OVER in its last seven games overall finishing with 63 or more combined points in five of those seven games.

Charlotte has allowed 48 points or more in four of its last five games with one of the worst defenses in the country.  The 49ers rank 134th out of 136 teams in scoring defense at 38.4 points pre game and 135th in total defense at 470 yards per game.

UTSA's defense has allowed 55 points in two of its last three games to North Texas and South Florida.  The Miners are way down defensively this season, but they have a very good offense that recently hung 61 points on Rice and 48 points and 523 yards on Tulane.  The Miners will hang a big number on this Charlotte defense Saturday, and as we've seen Charlotte's offense keeps coming late in games no matter the score.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. 

15* Big 12 Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Arizona/Cincinnati OVER 56

The Bearcats are a wagon offensively ranking 5th in the country averaging 7.3 yards per play.  They also like to play fast ranking 32nd in tempo snapping the ball every 24.6 seconds.  They have great balance led by a rushing attack that ranks 25th at 196.6 yards per game and 3rd at 6.0 yards per carry.

That's where I think Arizona will have problems in this game is stopping Cincinnati QB Brendan Sorsby, one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country.  Sorsby has thrown for 2,050 yards with a 20-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 453 yards and 8 scores.

The Wildcats have been very leaky against the run lately allowing 258 rushing yards to BYU, 232 to Houston and 170 to Kansas.  Houston QB Connor Weigman rushed for 98 yards and a TD on them, BYU QB Bear Bachmeier rushed for 89 yards and 2 TD, and Kansas QB Jaylon Daniels rushed for 74 yards and a TD on them.  The Wildcats clearly have a problem defending dual-threat QB's, and Sorsby is better than all three of those guys.

Arizona also likes to play fast ranking 34th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.8 seconds.  The Wildcats are 3-1 OVER in their last four games combining for 69 points with Colorado, 59 with Houston and 60 with BYU.  They rank 33rd in scoring at 33.0 points per game.  They have nice balance too, but are more pass-happy with QB Noah Fifita, who has thrown for 2,200 yards and 23 touchdowns while also rushing for three scores.

Cincinnati went for 59 combined points with Utah, 61 with Baylor and 66 with Oklahoma State in its last three games.  This total of 56 is pretty low for a game involving two great Big 12 offenses that both like to play fast.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* USF/Navy ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 64.5

South Florida is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bulls are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 61 or more combined points in all seven games, and 65 or more in five of their last six.  The Bulls rank 2nd in the entire country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.2 seconds.

The Bulls are relentless on offense.  They are averaging 50.2 points per game, 554 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play in conference games.  They have incentive to run up the score as they are trying to not only win the AAC, but do it with style points so they can make the 12-team playoff.  We saw just that when they beat Charlotte 54-26, North Texas 63-36 and UTSA 55-23 in recent weeks.

Navy is 7-2 OVER in all games this season with an elite offense and suspect defense.  Starting QB Blake Horvath sat out the Notre Dame game last week so he'd be more healthy for this game against South Florida, which is for 1st place in the AAC with not only conference championship implications, but also 12-team playoff implications.

Horvath means everything to this Navy offense.  He is completing 64.2% of his passes for 1,143 yards and 7 TD while also rushing for 926 yards and 13 TD.  He is going to go down as one of the best QB's in Navy history, and I think he has the goods to try and match USF score for score.

This Navy defense is a problem.  They just allowed 49 points and 502 total yards to Notre Dame last week.  They are a tired defense playing for a 4th consecutive week after also having to face up-tempo offenses in North Texas an FAU the last two weeks.  I think Notre Dame softened them up with their physical style last week, and USF is going to be able to score at will on them.  With USF playing from in front and keeping the foot on the gas, Navy will have no choice but to play faster on offense to try and keep up.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Notre Dame/Pitt ABC No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +10.5

This line has gone up since I released Pitt +10.5 on Sunday.  It has gone up because of Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi's comments about not caring if he lost this game by 100 because winning the ACC is what matters most.  While he is correct, I think it's a smoke screen.  The Panthers would love nothing more than to win this game and knock Notre Dame out of the 12-team playoff.  I think they have the goods to compete, too.

Pitt is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS since switching to freshman QB Mason Heintschel, who is completing 64.1% of his passes for 1,550 yards with a 12-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.4 per attempt.  He led them to blowout home wins over NC State 53-34 and Boston College 48-7, as well as well as blowout road wins over Stanford 35-20, Syracuse 30-13 and an upset win at Florida State, 34-31.

The offense is averaging 40 points per game with Heintschel at QB, and the defense has been great all season under Narduzzi.  The Panthers rank 24th in the country in total defense at 318.1 yards per game and 16th at 4.7 yards per play allow.  But what particularly stands out for this matchup is Pitt's run defense, which ranks 3rd in the country allowing just 80.7 rushing yards per game and 1st at 2.4 yards per carry.

Notre Dame needs to be able to run the football to be effective, and this will be its toughest test of the season against this top-ranked Pitt Run D.  That at least gives the Panthers a chance to hang in this game, forcing freshman QB CJ Carr to try and beat them through the air.  Pitt is a blitz-happy defense that will give Carr some problems.

Notre Dame is overvalued off a 49-10 home win over Navy, which was playing without starting QB Blake Horvath and had not chance of keeping it competitive without him.  The Fighting Irish only beat Boston College 25-10 as 31-point favorites in their last road game.  That's a BC team that is 1-9 this season with six consecutive losses by 14 points or more.  If BC can hang, Pitt can surely hang as well.  The Panthers are coming off their bye week so they will be fresh and ready to go with two full weeks to prepare to beat Notre Dame.  Bet Pittsburgh Saturday.

20* Notre Dame/Pitt ABC Total DOMINATOR on OVER 55

Pitt is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS since switching to freshman QB Mason Heintschel, who is completing 64.1% of his passes for 1,550 yards with a 12-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.4 per attempt.  He led them to blowout home wins over NC State 53-34 and Boston College 48-7, as well as well as blowout road wins over Stanford 35-20, Syracuse 30-13 and an upset win at Florida State, 34-31.

The offense is averaging 40 points per game with Heintschel at QB.  The Panthers really profile as a dead nuts OVER team ranking 25th in the country in tempo which is key to their offense finding its rhythm and keeping opposing defenses off balance.  This is a low total for a game involving the Panthers as they have gone for 55 or more combined points in eight of their nine games this season with the only exception being against Syracuse and its backup QB.

Notre Dame also profiles as an OVER team going 5-4 OVER in all games this season finishing with 58 or more combined points in five of its last eight games.  The Fighting Irish won't have as much success running the ball against this stout Pitt run D, so they will have to throw more than usual with CJ Carr.  He is handling it well completing 67.6% of his passes for 2,275 yards with a 19-to-4 TD/INT ratio while averaging 10.1 per attempt.  Pitt is a blitz-happy defense, which allows for explosive plays over the top.  I think this will be a back-and-forth shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Minnesota/Oregon FOX No-Brainer on UNDER 44.5

Oregon is coming off a pair of low-scoring, rain games against two similar opponents to Minnesota.  The Ducks won 21-7 at home against Wisconsin for 28 combined points, and 18-16 at Iowa for 34 combined points.  There is a good chance of rain for this game at home against Minnesota tonight, and either way I think this game stays UNDER the 44.5-point total.

Oregon has some key injuries at receiver that are limiting their offense which is the biggest reason they only managed 21 points on Wisconsin and 18 on Iowa.  The Ducks have only averaged 20 pass attempts in those two games and they will keep it on the ground here after averaging 40.5 rush attempts in those two games.

The Ducks also have no motivation to run up the score and keep scoring late into the 4th quarter.  We've seen them call off the dogs several times already this season.  They know they just have to survive and advance as winning out would get them into the 12-team playoff.  They also have USC on deck next week so they don't want to show too much here.

Minnesota is a dead nuts UNDER team with a terrible offense and solid defense.  Iowa and Ohio State both held Minnesota to just 3 points this season, and I would be surprised if Minnesota reached 10 points in this game.  The Golden Gophers rank 121st in total offense at 313.1 yards per game and 124th in rushing at 109.8 yards per game.  They will be up against an Oregon defense that ranks 3rd in the country at 239.3 yards per game, 3rd at 4.0 yards per play and 28th at 113.2 rushing yards per game.

Minnesota can at least keep Oregon somewhat in check with a defense that ranks 20th in the country at 311.6 yards per game and 21st at 108.1 rushing yards per game.  The Golden Gophers and their opponents have combined for 47 or fewer points in seven of their nine games this season, including 44 or fewer in five of them.  This feels like something in the neighborhood of a 28-7 final.

Neither of these teams are in a hurry offensively.  Minnesota ranks 118th in tempo snapping the ball every 28.4 seconds, while Oregon ranks 101st at 27.7 seconds in between snaps.  This game will slow down to a crawl in the 4th quarter with Oregon blowing out Minnesota and both teams just looking to get out of there.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Jets/Patriots AFC East No-Brainer on New England -10

The Patriots are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall as the most underrated team in the NFL this season.  They have a bye on deck next week, and with that in mind they will be 'all in' here looking forward to going into the bye week with positive momentum.

I fully expect the Patriots to make easy work of the short-handed Jets tonight.  The Jets traded away their two best players in DT Quinnen Williams and CB Sauce Gardner prior to the deadline.  They have stockpiled draft picks to set them up for the future with those two moves, but in the interim they are going to be one of the worst teams in the NFL.

The Jets were able to overcome those losses with a 27-20 home win over the lowly Cleveland Browns last week.  It was one of the most misleading wins of the season as the Jets benefited from a 99-yard KO return TD and a 74-yard punt return TD within one minute of each other.  The Jets were held to just 171 total yards by the Browns, and this is one of the worst offenses in the NFL in its current state.

The Jets will be without their best receiver in Garrett Wilson tonight.  Without him, they lack playmakers on the outside.  They won't be able to keep up with this high-powered Patriots offense and MVP candidate, Drake Maye.  

He leads a New England offense that ranks 8th in scoring at 26.5 points per game, 10th in total offense at 359.1 yards per game and 5th at 6.2 yards per play.  Maye is completing 71.7% of his passes with a 19-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.9 per attempt.  Going on the road and beating the Bucs who were off a bye 28-23 last week was mighty impressive.  The Patriots racked up 435 total yards on a very good Bucs defense, and Maye threw for 270 yards and 2 TD in the win.  Rookie RB Henderson rushed for 147 yards and 2 TD and should play a huge role tonight.

The Jets were already without Williams and Gardner due to those trades, but now they will be without fellow starting CB Azareye'h Thomas, and both DE Will McDonald and DT Harrison Phillips are questionable.  The Browns weren't able to take advantage of all these players gone, but the Bengals went for 38 points on them the game prior.  And the Patriots will be able to get what they want offensively here.

I love the matchup for the Patriots tonight, too.  The Jets need to be able to run the ball with Hall and Fields to be successful.  The Patriots will have none of it, forcing Fields to try and beat them with his arm, which he cannot.  New England ranks 1st in the NFL allowing just 79.2 rushing yards per game and 4th allowing 3.8 yards per carry.  This is a terrible matchup for the short-handed, terrible Jets tonight.  Bet the Patriots Thursday.

20* Eagles/Packers ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia +2.5

The Philadelphia Eagles are starting to look like the team that won the Super Bowl last season.  They predictably got off to a slow start with a bunch of narrow wins, and it eventually caught up to them.  But after an upset loss to the Giants, the Eagles have turned a corner.

They bounced back with a 28-22 win at Minnesota behind a breakout passing game from Jalen Hurts, who completed 19-of-23 passes for 326 yards and 3 TD.  They avenged that loss to New York with a 38-20 win over the Giants in the rematch.  This time, they got their running game going rushing for 276 yards.  Barkley rushed for 150 yards on 14 carries while Bigsby rushed for 104 yards on 9 carries.

Now the Eagles are coming off their bye week and primed for a big effort against the Packers.  The Eagles are about as healthy as they have been all season.  Their defense is basically fully healthy now with the return of LB Nolan Smith from IR.  This is one of the best defenses in the NFL when they are as healthy as they are right now.  All of their playmakers are healthy on offense, and the only loss there is C Cam Jurgens.

The Packers are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL going 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They are coming off a 16-13 home loss to the Panthers as 13.5-point favorites.  That's the same Panthers team that just lost 17-7 at home to the Saints this week.  They also struggled to put away Arizona by 4, Cincinnati by 9 and needed a big 2H comeback to beat the Steelers.  Before that, they tied the Cowboys and lost outright to the Browns as 7.5-point favorites.

This will be the Packers' toughest test of the season against an Eagles team that eliminated them in the playoffs with a 22-10 victory last year.  We saw the Eagles handle this situation well twice already, beating the Chiefs and Rams this season, two teams they also knocked out of the playoffs last year.  I think they enjoy their dominance of these teams and really get up for these games.

The Packers have a ton of injury questions coming into this one.  On offense, WR Matthew Golden, WR Dontayvion Wicks, WR Savion Williams and RT Zach Tom are all questionable.  They were already without WR Jayden Reed, and now TE Tucker Kraft suffered a season-ending injury against the Panthers last week.  They could not afford to lose Kraft, who has easily been their most productive player in the passing game consistently bailing out the offense with his ability to run after the catch.  Kraft has 32 receptions for a team-high 489 yards and 6 TD up to this point.  They could not afford to lose him, and I don't think they can beat the Eagles without him.  Bet the Eagles Monday.

25* NBC Sunday Night Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Chargers -2.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Chargers and 'sell high' on the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.  Both teams are coming off misleading results that have made this line lower than it should be.  The Chargers should be more than 2.5-point home favorites over the Steelers, and this is my favorite play of the entire season on the Sunday Night Football Stage as a result.

The Steelers are coming off a 27-20 home win over the Indianapolis Colts.  The Colts gift-wrapped them that win by committing 6 turnovers, yet it was still a one-score game.  The Colts outgained the Steelers 368 to 225, or by 143 total yards.  It was a very fluky result and one of those games where just everything goes the Steelers' way.  It happened earlier this season when the Patriots committed 5 turnovers against them in a one-score game.

It was criminal that the Chargers didn't cover as 9.5-point favorites against the Titans last week in a 27-20 win.  The Titans had a pick-6 and a punt return TD and didn't score a single TD on offense.  The Chargers outgained the Titans 343 to 206, or by 137 total yards.

Everyone is making a big deal about the Chargers losing Joe Alt to a season-ending injury.  But not enough is being made of the fact that the Chargers traded for Trevor Penning of the Saints to take his place.  That was a great coup and one that will pay big dividends for them moving forward.  I'm also not that concerned about the loss of RT Bobby Hart because Trey Pipkins III is back healthy.  The Chargers are going to be just fine along the offensive line, and Herbert's mobility is a big weapon to counter it.

The numbers show the Chargers are by far the superior team.  The Chargers are 5th in total offense at 374.6 yards per game and 10th at 6.0 yards per play while also ranking 6th in total defense at 286.8 yards per game and 11th at 5.4 yards per play.  The Chargers are outgaining opponents by 88 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play.

The Steelers rank 28th in total offense at 288.1 yards per game and 22nd at 5.4 yards per play.  They rank 30th in total defense at 383.8 yards per game and 25th at 5.8 yards per play.  They are getting outgained by 95 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play on the season.  The Chargers are the much superior team and it will show on the field Sunday night.  

Aaron Rodgers is 2-5 ATS in his last seven primetime games, including 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS as an underdog.  Justin Herbert is 5-0 ATS in his last five primetime games and 16-9 ATS overall, including 10-3 SU as a favorite in primetime games.  Bet the Chargers Sunday. Bet the Chargers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Lions -8

I love the spot for the Detroit Lions this week.  The Lions are a perfect 12-0 SU & 12-0 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss.  They will be extra motivated this week for revenge after losing to the Commanders in the playoffs last year.  Detroit is 20-5 SU & 19-6 ATS since 2023 when revenging a defeat.  The Lions won't mind kicking the Commanders while they are down this week.

And boy are the Commanders down in the dumps.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall getting upset by the Bears at home, losing by 22 in Dallas, losing by 21 in Kansas City and losing by 24 at home to Seattle last week.  Head coach Dan Quinn leaving Jayden Daniels in to suffer an injury late in a blowout to Seattle might have been the final straw.

The Commanders are a tired, injury-ravaged team that will be playing for a 10th consecutive week as they have yet to have their bye week.  They are also without their best WR in Terry McClaurin and two more WR's in Noah Brown and Luke McCaffrey on offense, giving Marcus Mariota almost no shot of being successful on offense.

The defense is one of the oldest units in the league and extremely slow.  That defense is missing four pass-rushers who are on IR right now in Armstrong, Wise Jr., Jackson and Jean-Baptiste.  It is also down a starting CB in Marshon Lattimore, while FS Quan Martin, backup FS Tyler Owens and DT Eddie Goldman are all questionable.  The Commanders are a complete mash unit right now everywhere, giving them little to no chance of keeping this game competitive.

The Lions are coming off a misleading 27-24 loss to the Minnesota Vikings last week.  They held the Vikings to just 258 total yards a week after holding the Bucs to 251 total yards in a 24-9 win.  The problem was losing starting tackles Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell to injuries during that game that had their offense unable to handle Minnesota's blitz-happy scheme.

Well, the Lions got good news on the injury front as both Decker and Sewell practiced this week and should be good to go.  This Washington defense isn't capable of creating the kind of pressure that Minnesota did, and Jared Goff should have a clean pocket to pick it apart.  The Commanders rank 22nd in scoring defense at 26.2 points per game, 28th in total defense at 377.8 yards per game and 30th at 6.4 yards per play.  

Opponents have torched the Commanders for 33.8 points per game and 410 yards per game during their current four-game winning streak. You can just imagine what this high-powered Lions offense is going to do to them this week.  The Lions are 2nd in scoring offense at 29.9 points per game and should get whatever they want.  Detroit also has one of the most improved defenses in the NFL.  They rank 8th in total defense at 294.8 yards per game and 8th at 5.3 yards per play.  Detroit just had a bye two weeks ago and is the much fresher, healthier, better team.  Bet the Lions Sunday.

15* Rams/49ers NFC West ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -3.5

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Rams this week.  They had their bye two weeks ago and returned from it with a 34-10 dismantling of the New Orleans Saints.  They outgained the Saints 438 to 224, or by 214 yards.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now, and they are ready for revenge on the 49ers from a fluky 26-23 (OT) loss in their first meeting on October 2nd.  They fumbled that game away going in for the winning score late.  They racked up 456 yards on the 49ers and should have won.

The 49ers are a tired, injury-ravaged team right now that just won't be able to put up much of a fight in the rematch.  They will be playing for a 10th consecutive week here as they have yet to have their bye week.  They are without Brock Purdy, Rickey Pearsall, Brandon Aiyuk and could be without G Ben Bartch on offense.  They are without Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Yetur Gross-Matos and have another four starters listed as questionable on defense.  Their front seven in particular is in shambles.  The 49ers rank dead last in pressure rate and 2nd-to-last in sacks since losing Bosa.

The fatigue fact is amplified after consecutive long road trips to Houston in a 26-15 loss and New York in a 34-24 win over the equally injury-ravaged Giants.  They had to fly across country and won't have had much time to prepare for the Rams, who were at home last week and will have a short trip to Santa Clara for this one.

The Rams are legit one of the best teams in the NFL as they are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS this season and even their two losses were fluky.  One was that loss to the 49ers where they had 456 yards and fumbled it away, and the other was a blown 26-7 lead on the road to the Eagles where they had their game-winning FG blocked at the buzzer.

The Rams have rebounded nicely from that loss to the 49ers going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with a 14-point win at Baltimore, a 28-point win at Jacksonville and a 24-point home win over the Saints.  You could make the argument the Rams are the best team in the NFL when you look at the numbers.  They are 7th in total offense at 369.9 yards per game and 9th at 6.0 yards per play, while ranking 10th in total defense at 302.9 yards per game and 5th at 5.0 yards per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 67 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play.

The 49ers have been winning with smoke and mirrors as they are actually getting outgained by 0.1 yards per play.  Four of their six wins came by 5 points or fewer, while each of their last two losses came by double-digits to Houston and Tampa Bay.  Their luck runs out this week against a Rams team that wants it more and is the much more rested, healthy and better team.  

The 49ers are 1-14 ATS in their last 15 games following a win.  The Rams are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 division games when playing in the 2nd meeting of the season on the road.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Carolina Panthers -5.5

The Panthers are one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season going 5-4 despite being an underdog in all nine games.  Oddsmakers continue to not adjust enough for how improved this team is, and you're going to hear a lot about how they can't cover as a favorite this week.  But these aren't your old Panthers.

Carolina is favored by 5.5 points for good reason this week as I fully expect them to win by a TD or more.  The Panthers are facing arguably the worst team in the NFL in their current state in the New Orleans Saints, who pretty much showed they were giving up on their season by trading away two of their best players at the trade deadline in LT Trevor Penning to the Chargers and WR Rasheed Shaheed to the Seahawks.

The Saints are 1-8 this season and have rarely been competitive here of late.  Five of their last six losses have come by double-digits, so they are getting blown out on the regular.  They are a tired team playing for a 10th consecutive week, and they will now have a lot of travel in between their 34-10 loss in Los Angeles to the Rams over the weekend.  They were outgained 438 to 224 by the Rams, or by 214 total yards.

Tyler Shough made his first career start against the Rams and was terrible, and he's a downgrade from Spencer Rattler in my opinion.  He is set up to fail after trading away Shaheed and Penning.  The Saints will essentially be without both starting tackles with the loss of Penning and now RT Taliese Fuaga is out this week.  They also have four other offensive linemen on IR, and this may be the worst offense in the NFL moving forward.

The Saints are 31st in scoring offense at 15.3 points per game, 29th in total offense at 287.1 yards per game and 30th at 4.9 yards per play.  They are 24th in scoring defense at 27.0 points per game, 18th at 333.3 yards per game and 12th at 5.5 yards per play.  They are getting outscored by 11.7 points per game and outgained by 50 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play.

The Panthers are fully healthy on offense with the exception of RG.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games with Bryce Young at QB.  He has underrated weapons at receiver and a two-headed monster at RB in Dowdle and Hubbard.  This is one of the most underrated offenses in the NFL.

The Panthers also have a vastly improved defense ranking 13th in total defense this season at 316.6 yards per game.  They shut out the Falcons, held the Jets to 6 and held the Packers to 13 points.  They are also fully healthy on defense, and overall one of the most healthy teams in the NFL right now which is key this late in the season.

The Panthers are 3-1 SU & 3-1 TS at home this season playing much better on their home turf.  Their lone loss was with Andy Dalton at QB to a pissed off Buffalo Bills team coming off their bye week and two consecutive losses.  Dalton was playing with a broken thumb to boot.

Adding to the Saints' fatigue is the fact that their defense was on the field for 44 minutes agains the Rams.  They only possessed the ball for 16 minutes and 40 plays.  Teams coming off a game with 40 offensive plays or fewer have gone 4-11 SU since 2014, including 1-10 SU as underdogs.  The Saints are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog of 14 points or less.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Baltimore Ravens -3.5

The Ravens released their injury report this week and nobody was on it.  The go from one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the NFL to the healthiest, and now I have them as the best team in the NFL in their current state.  I've backed them with success the last two weeks since returning from their bye healthy, and I'm not about to jump off them now.

Even without Lamar Jackson the Ravens blasted the Bears 30-16 at home two weeks ago off their bye.  They got Jackson back on Thursday in their next game, and he led them to a 28-6 win over the Dolphins while throwing 4 TD passes with only 5 incompletions.  Jackson is completing 72.9% of his passes with a 14-to-1 TD/INT ratio on the season.  Now the Ravens are on extra rest here after playing last Thursday and primed for a big effort.

The Minnesota Vikings are in the ultimate letdown spot.  They shocked the Lions 27-24 as 9.5-point road underdogs last week.  It was a fluky result as the Vikings managed just 258 total yards and were outgained by 60 yards by the Lions.  JJ McCarthy is not their savior.  He went 14-of-25 passing for 143 yards, while rushing for just 12 yards on 9 carries in the win.  McCarthy isn't going to be able to match Jackson score for score in this one as it's a huge mismatch at the QB position.

Jackson thrives against the blitz, and the Vikings are one of the most blitz-happy teams in the NFL with Brian Flores as their coordinator.  The Vikings have really been leaking oil defensively in recent weeks against other QB's like Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert that own the blitz.  They allowed 28 points and 316 passing yards to the Eagles and 37 points and 419 total yards to the Chargers before giving up 24 points to the Lions, who suffered multiple O-Line injuries throughout that game that disrupted their rhythm.  The Ravens have one of the best O-Lines in the NFL.

Lamar Jackson is 37-8 SU when facing a head coach for the first time like he will be Kevin O'Connell this week.  Jackson is 24-3 SU against the NFC as a starting QB for the Ravens.  The Vikings are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after facing the Lions under O'Connell, failing to cover the spread by an average of 11.9 points per game.  Teams playing the 2nd of back-to-back road games are 30-12 SU & 29-13 ATS since 2018.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Patriots/Bucs OVER 47.5

This game really sets up for an OVER.  We have two of the top MVP candidates at QB in Baker Mayfield and Drake Maye up against two poor pass defenses.  And both defenses are elite against the run, so I don't expect either offense to try to run the football much.  The ball will be in the air a lot, which favors the OVER.

Maye leads a Patriots offense that ranks 7th in scoring at 26.3 points per game and 5th at 6.1 yards per play.  He is completing 74.1% of his passes for 2,285 yards with a 17-to-4 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 270 yards and two scores on the ground.  He'll be up against a Bucs defense that ranks 22nd against the pass.

Mayfield leads a Bucs offense that ranks 15th in scoring at 24.6 points per game.  He is completing 63.9% of his passes for 1,919 yards with a 13-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 158 yards.  He is back healthy now and wasn't running as much leading into a much-needed bye last week.  He should use his legs more moving forward, which is a big weapon of his to move the chains.  He'll be up against a Patriots defense that ranks 19th against the pass and 25th allowing 7.0 per attempt.

The Bucks will be without LB Haason Reddick and his backup in Markees Watts.  They were already without Calijah Kancey and really lack a pass rush right now.  The Patriots lost LB Christian Elliss to injury last week and he is out for this one.  I expect both offenses to have their way with these defenses, especially given the forecast.  

Temps will be in the 80's with single-digit winds and only a 25% chance of rain.  The OVER is 3-0 in Bucs three home games this season finishing with 49, 56 and 56 combined points.  The Patriots are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tampa Bay Bucs -2.5

I love the spot for the Tampa Bay Bucs.  They are coming off a much-needed bye week to get healthier.  They worked wonders to get to 6-2 this season as Baker Mayfield made his case for MVP by leading several game-winning drives.  And now they come out of the bye much healthier and ready to knock off the New England Patriots.

The Patriots are running on fumes right now playing for a 10th consecutive week as they have yet to have their bye.  They were fortunate to escape with a 24-23 home win over the Falcons last week after a missed XP by Atlanta late.  Their luck runs out this week.  They have benefited from playing the easiest schedule in the NFL to this point.

A tired New England team will now have to battle the heat in Tampa Bay with temps in the 80's for this one.  Injuries are starting to mount up too as they will be without leading rusher Rhamondre Stevenson (279 yards, 3 TD) and leading TD receiver Kayshon Boutte (431 yards, 5 TD).  They will also be without second-leading tackler Christian Ellis (53 tackles).

The Bucks have been without RT Luke Goedeke and RG Luke Haggard.  Both returned to practice this week and both could return, which would give them their entire starting offensive line back.  The bye week was good for Emeka Egbuka (34 receptions, 562 yards, 5 TD) as well as he was battling a hamstring injury the last few games going into it.  And this Tampa Bay defense will be as healthy as it has been all season this week.

Teams who are off a bye against a team that hasn't had their bye week yet are 6-0 SU this season with all six wins coming by 9 points or more.  Baker Mayfield is 4-0 SU as a favorite off a bye in his career.  The Patriots have won 6 consecutive games, and teams on a 6-plus game winning streak in Week 10 or later when listed as an underdog are 28-42-1 ATS.  The Bucs are favored for good reason and should be favored by more given the favorable spot for them.  Bet the Bucs Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Bears -4

I love the spot for the Chicago Bears this week.  They are back home after consecutive road games against the Ravens and Bengals and taking a step down in class here against the Giants.  They have played five of their first eight games on the road.  They are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS at home this season with their lone loss coming back in Week 1 against the Vikings after blowing a double-digit 4th quarter lead.  They have since beaten the Cowboys by 17 and the Saints by 12 at home.

While the Bears are the fresher, healthier team after already having their bye week, the Giants will be playing for a 10th consecutive week and are running on fumes right now.  They are losing bodies left and right and are one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the NFL.  This is much more of a play against the Giants than it is a play on the Bears.

The Giants haven't recovered from blowing a 19-0 lead over the Broncos to lose in the 4th quarter.  They came back and lost 38-20 on the road to the Eagles before falling 34-24 to an equally injury-ravaged 49ers team at home last week.  Their defense is in shambles, allowing an average of 35 points per game in their last three games.

It's easy to see why as the Giants are without CB Paulson Adebo, LB Chauncey Golston, and several other key depth pieces.  The offense isn't any healthier.  The Giants will be without WR Malik Nabers, WR Beaux Collins, RB Cam Skattebo, C John Michael Schmitz Jr and K Graham Gano.  They could also be without RT Jermain Eluemunor, who is questionable.

The Giants are 0-5 SU on the road this season.  The Bears are basically fully healthy on offense, and while they are missing four starters on defense in all, they are still in much better shape than the Giants.  I look for them to make easy work of them here.

The forecast is calling for temps in the 30's, 25 MPH sustained winds and a sloppy field.  The team that runs the football better is going to have the advantage, and that is the Bears.  They will have their full compliment of RB's available and have the much better run-blocking O-Line and play-caller in Ben Johnson.  This is where the Giants will really miss Skattebo getting those tough yards.

The Giants rank 19th averaging 4.2 yards per carry while the Bears rank 2nd overall in rushing at 144.4 yards per game and 6th at 4.9 yards per rush.  The biggest weakness of the Giants is stopping the run.  They rank 32nd allowing 150 rushing yards per game and 32nd allowing 5.5 yards per carry.  They have allowed an average of 192.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

15* Falcons/Colts NFL Berlin Early ANNIHILATOR on Indianapolis -6

I love the spot for the Indianapolis Colts.  They are coming off a humbling, misleading loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in which they gave the game away by committing six turnovers.  They still only lost by 7 despite the 6 turnovers, a sign of a great team.  They outgained the Steelers 368 to 225, or by 143 total yards.  It was a very fluky result.

The Colts are very close to being undefeated this season.  Their other loss to the Rams was fluky as well as they had two TD's overturned, one by penalty and one by dropping the ball before the end zone.  The Rams still needed a game-winning TD in the final two minutes to win by 7 in Los Angeles.  The Colts are winning by blowout week after week, outscoring opponents by 12.1 points per game on the season.  They will get back to their dominant selves this week in Berlin.

The Colts are a complete team other than injuries in their secondary.  Well, they addressed that matter by trading two first-round picks for CB Sauce Gardner, who is easily a Top 2 CB in the league right alongside Patrick Surtain of the Broncos.  Gardner will come in handy particularly in this game matching up with Drake London of the Falcons.  Stop London and you stop this Atlanta passing attack as they are so reliant on him.

The Falcons are a mess right now.  They have lost three in a row with a 10-point loss at San Francisco, a 24-point home loss to Miami and a 1-point road loss at New England. They trailed the Patriots by 14 points last week before a flurry of one-handed catches by London got them back in it.  They missed the potential tying extra point and since cut their kicker.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

The Falcons are decimated by injuries along their offensive line right now.  They are without three starters in RT Kaleb McGary, his replacement in Storm Norton, and LG Matthew Bergeron.  Another starter in Chris Linsdtrom is questionable. Michael Penix does not deal well with pressure, and he will be under duress all game.  Penix is actually 0-5 SU in outdoor games in his career as well.  That includes the loss to New England, the 10-point loss to the 49ers and the 30-point loss to the Panthers earlier this season.

I love the matchup for the Colts.  Both teams rely heavily on their running game with the Jonathan Stewart for the Colts and Bijon Robinson and Tyler Algier for the Falcons.  The Colts have one of the best offensive lines in the league, while the Falcons have one of the worst in their current state.  The Falcons rank 23rd allowing 124.4 rushing yards per game and 20th at 4.4 per carry.  The Colts rank 4th allowing just 87 rushing yards per game and 11th at 4.0 per carry.

Favorites are 39-14-1 SU & 34-20 ATS in International games, including 29-9-1 SU & 24-15 ATS as a favorite of a FG or more.  Teams coming off a SU loss as a favorite before an International game are 15-9 ATS, including 2-0 ATS this season.  Bet the Colts Sunday morning in Berlin.

15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on UCLA ML +100

Nebraska just had its hopes of making the 12-team playoff come to an end last week with a 21-17 home loss to USC.  The Huskers also lost star QB Dylan Raiola to a season-ending injury in the process.  I think there will be a hangover effect from that dream-crushing loss, and the Huskers will suffer a big drop off in QB play to the backup.

Nebraska is a tired team as it is playing for a 6th consecutive week here.  The injuries are starting to mount up everywhere.  The Huskers were last seen on the road getting upset 24-6 at Minnesota.  That loss looks even worse now after Minnesota went on to get blown out by everyone, including a 41-3 loss to Iowa.  This will only be the 3rd true road game for the Huskers this season.  They also escaped with a 3-point win at fraud Maryland.

UCLA is in the much better spot.  The Bruins are coming off their bye week and they have shown they will play hard for their interim head coach.  They went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS against Penn State, Michigan State and Maryland before getting blasted at Indiana in their final game going into their bye week.  Everyone is getting blasted by Indiana, so I'm willing to throw that result out.

UCLA QB Nico Iamaleava is completing 63.2% of his passes with 10 TD passes while also rushing for 388 yards and 4 scores.  He is the much better QB in this matchup, and he will lead his team to a victory here against a tired, deflated Nebraska team with a backup QB.  Bet UCLA on the Money Line Saturday.

20* LSU/Alabama ABC No-Brainer on Alabama -9

LSU is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  Not even firing Brian Kelly will save them as they are a program in shambles right now.  The Tigers have lost all their step up games to Vanderbilt and Ole Miss and a 49-25 blowout home loss to Texas A&M last time out.  It won't get any easier for them this week against Alabama.

The Crimson Tide have been on a mission since losing to Florida State in the opener.  They have delivered going 7-0 SU with road wins over Georgia, Missouri and South Carolina, as well as home wins over Tennessee by 17, Vanderbilt by 16 and Wisconsin by 24.  The Crimson Tide have been dominant at home this season going 4-0 ATS, and they will have a huge home-field advantage for this rivalry game at night in Tuscaloosa.

LSU remains without its defensive leader this week in LB Whit Weeks.  This defense has been shredded without him allowing 31 points and 399 yards to Vanderbilt and 49 points and 426 yards to Texas A&M. You can just imagine what this Alabama offense is going to do to them this week.  Ty Simpson has a 20-to-1 TD/INT ratio and is among the favorites to win the Heisman Trophy.  You would be hard-pressed to find a better QB in the country than Simpson.

Alabama is 12-2 SU & 9-5 ATS in its last 14 meetings with LSU.  That includes a 42-13 road win last season as 3-point favorites and a 42-28 home win the year prior as 3-point favorites.  The Crimson Tide will win this game by double-digits.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Kentucky +3

Florida had its 'all in' performance last week in a 24-20 loss to Georgia in their biggest rivalry.  It was their first game with an interim head coach since firing Billy Napier.  Now I expect the Gators to fall flat on their faces this week as they won't be nearly as motivated to beat Kentucky as they were to beat Georgia.  Most of these players are just ready for this season to be over.

The Gators will be without two of their best receivers for this game so their offense will continue to struggle.  Both Eugene Wilson III and Dallas Wilson are out, and 13 players in all are listed as out for this one.  The Gators rank 107th in scoring offense at 22.1 points per game this season.

Kentucky has put up great numbers in three consecutive weeks.  The Wildcats were finally rewarded with a 10-3 win as 11-point road dogs at Auburn last week.  They held the Tigers to just 241 total yards on 71 plays in the win.  That followed up two straight misleading losses that have the Wildcats undervalued.  They lost 16-13 to Texas despite outgaining the Longhorns 395 to 179, or by 216 total yards.  They lost 56-34 to Tennessee two weeks ago despite only getting outgained by 28 yards.

This is a game the Wildcats know they can win as well and I fully expect them to take advantage.  They take this rivalry much more seriously than Florida does, going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  Sitting at 3-5 on the season, the Wildcats have a great chance to still make a bowl game if they win this game because they have Tennessee Tech on deck next week.  They are much more concerned with making a bowl game than Florida is at this point.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* Sun Belt Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Georgia State/Coastal Carolina OVER 57.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off Saturday when Georgia State takes on Coastal Carolina in a Sun Belt showdown.  Georgia State is 3-0 OVER in its last three games overall finishing with 69, 65 and 61 combined points.  Coastal Carolina is 2-0 OVER in its last two games finishing with 71 and 82 combined points.

Coastal Carolina ranks 37th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.9 seconds.  The Chanticleers have really turned it up offensively in their last two games putting up 45 points on Appalachian State and 44 on Marshall.

Georgia State also plays faster than average ranking 57th in tempo snapping it every 25.9 seconds.  The Panthers have been playing much better offensively here down the stretch putting up 20 points and 381 yards on App State, 24 points and 444 yards on Georgia Southern and 31 points and 440 yards on South Alabama in its last three games coming in.  The switch to QB Cam Brown has made the difference.  He has a 12-to-1 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 275 yards and 3 scores.

Both offenses should have their way against two of the worst defenses in the country.  Georgia State ranks 135th out of 136 teams allowing 40.8 points per game, 123rd in total defense at 452.6 yards per game and 127th at 6.5 yards per play.  Coastal Carolina ranks 95th in scoring defense at 28.1 points per game and 104th in total defense at 412.5 yards per game.  Both are dreadful against the run with Coastal ranking 122nd allowing 192.6 rushing yards per game and Georgia State at 130th allowing 205 rushing yards per game.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings finishing with 75, 65 and 82 points on the three OVERS.  The 75-point effort came last year.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's, 5 MPH winds and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Texas A&M/Missouri ABC ANNIHILATOR on Missouri +7

It's time to 'sell high' on Texas A&M after a 8-0 start to the season.  The Aggies are ranked 3rd in the playoff ranking, and with that ranking and record comes expectations from oddsmakers that are very difficult to live up to.  The Aggies should not be 7-point road favorites over the Missouri Tigers in this one.

Missouri is 6-2 this season with its only two losses coming by 3 to Alabama at home and by 7 to Vanderbilt on the road.  The Tigers actually outgained the Crimson Tide and they outgained the Commodores by 111 yards.  They could easily be 8-0, too.

This line has been adjusted too much for the loss of QB Beau Pribula.  I like what I saw from backup QB Matt Zollers, who took over for Pribula against Vanderbilt.  He went 14-of-23 passing for 138 yards and a TD in relief.  Now Zollers has had two full weeks to get ready to face Texas A&M as the Tigers are coming off their bye week.

There really isn't a big difference between these teams when you look at the numbers.  Texas A&M averages 459.2 yards per game and 6.7 per play on offense while allowing 321.5 yards per game and 5.1 per play on defense.  The Aggies outgain their opponents by 138 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play.

Missouri averages 473.4 yards per game and 6.1 per play on offense and allows 245.6 yards per game and 4.4 per play on defense.  The Tigers actually have better numbers, outgaining opponents by 228 yards per game and 1.7 yards per play.  This is the Tigers' last stand if they want to make the 12-team playoff as a win over Texas A&M would go a long way in helping them.  Bet Missouri Saturday.

15* Big 12 Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Iowa State/TCU OVER 56.5

Iowa State's defense is decimated with injuries, but the Cyclones still have one of the better offenses in the Big 12.  Their current status has them as a dead nuts OVER team right now, and that has played out in recent weeks.

The Cyclones went for 68 combined points with Cincinnati in a 38-30 loss and 68 combined points with BYU in a 41-27 loss.  Maybe even more concerning was the fact that they gave up 467 total yards to an Arizona State team last week that was playing without its starting QB (Leavitt) and arguably the best WR in the country (Tyson).

Now the Cyclones have to go up against a TCU offense that is one of the best in the country, and also a TCU offense that has had two weeks to prepare to take advantage of their defense that is missing three of its top cornerbacks in the secondary.  Expect a pass-happy approach.

The Horned Frogs rank 27th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.4 seconds and I wouldn't be surprised to see them ramp it up even more this week to try and take advantage of this depleted ISU defense.  TCU ranks 31st in scoring at 34.6 points per game and 34th averaging 6.2 yards per play.  Josh Hoover has thrown for 2,371 yards at 8.3 per attempt with a 22-to-6 TD/INT ratio.

This Iowa State offense is still nearly fully healthy and can keep up with TCU in a shootout.  The Cyclones average 408.1 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play despite facing a tough schedule of opposing defenses.  Rocco Becht has thrown for 2,119 yards while averaging 7.8 per attempt and accounting for 19 total TD's.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between Iowa State and TCU finishing with 76, 62, 71 and 73 combined points in the four overs.  This total of 56.5 is pretty short given the state of Iowa State's defense right now.  The forecast looks great for a shootout as well with temps in the 80's, only 5 MPH winds and no chance of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa +6.5

The forecast will favor the Iowa Hawkeyes Saturday.  Temps will be around 40 with over a 50% chance of rain throughout the game including a 100% chance in the beginning.  That will chew up the field and help slow down the speed of the Oregon Ducks.  The Hawkeyes have them right where they want them this week given the forecast.

We saw Oregon struggle with similar weather last time out only winning 21-7 at home against Wisconsin as 31-point favorites.  That's the same Wisconsin team that Iowa blasted 37-0 on the road a few weeks ago as part of a great run for the Hawkeyes.

Indeed, Iowa is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall beating Minnesota 41-3 as 7.5-point home favorites, beating Penn State 25-24, winning at Rutgers 38-28 as 2-point favorites and crushing UMass 47-7 as 35-point home favorites.  But perhaps the most impressive performance was the loss.  Iowa only lost 20-15 as 9-point home dogs to Indiana, the same Indiana team that went into Oregon and won 30-20 and dominated the Ducks.  Iowa came closer to beating Indiana than any team has all season, and that was also a home game.

Iowa is 21-2 SU in its last 23 November games and 17-3 SU at Kinnick Stadium in November since 2015.  Iowa City is one of the best home-field advantages in the country, and it will be a very tough atmosphere for the Ducks here.  Bet Iowa Saturday.

15* Kansas/Arizona ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on OVER 57

Kansas is a dead nuts OVER team going 5-2 OVER in its last seven games overall while finishing with 59 or more combined points in five of those seven games.  Arizona is 3-0 OVER in its last three games finishing with 59 or more combined points in all three games.  This total of 57 is too short for a game involving these two teams right now.

Kansas ranks 51st in scoring at 31.3 points per game and 46th at 6.1 yards per play on offense.  Arizona averages 34.1 points per game and 6.1 yards per play.  These are two elite offenses that will have their way with two suspect defenses.

Arizona has allowed 31 or more points in three of its last five games with the only exceptions being against two of the worst teams in the Big 12 in Colorado and Oklahoma State.  Kansas has allowed 37 or more points in four of its last seven games with the only exceptions being against three of the worst teams in the Big 12 in Oklahoma State, UCF and WVU.

Both QB's are lighting it up this season.  Kansas' Jalon Daniels has a 20-to-3 TD/INT ratio on the season, while Noah Fifita has a 21-to-4 TD/INT ratio.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 80's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Duke/UConn OVER 63.5

Both Duke and UConn are dead nuts OVER teams that are all offense and no defense.   Both have two of the best QB's in the country, and both of those QB's should shred these suspect defenses today.

Duke ranks 33rd in tempo snapping the ball every 24.7 seconds.  The Blue Devils rank 25th in scoring at 35.4 points per game, 22nd in total offense at 460.2 yards per game and 15th at 6.9 yards per play.  QB Darian Mensah is completing 69.7% of his passes for 2,572 yards with a 21-to-2 TD/INT ratio.

UConn is scoring 36.9 points per game while ranking 26th in total offense at 455.6 yards per game and 19th at 6.7 yards per play.  Joe Fagnano is one of the most underrated QB's in the country, completing 68.8% of his passes for 2,529 yards with a 22-to-0 TD/INT ratio.

Duke's defense ranks 109th allowing 6.1 yards per play.  UConn's defense ranks 94th allowing 391.7 yards per game.  Duke is 6-2 OVER this season finishing with 61 or more combined points in six of its eight games.  The Blue Devils are coming off a 46-45 shootout win over Clemson for 91 combined points.  UConn is 6-3 OVER in its nine games this season finishing with 61 or more combined points six times.

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, single-digit winds and no chance of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Charlotte/ECU OVER 56.5

East Carolina is a dead nuts OVER team due to ranking 7th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 22.4 seconds.  The Pirates won 41-27 against Tulsa for 68 combined points and 45-14 over Temple for 59 combined points in their last two games.

The Pirates are hitting on all cylinders offensively going for 41 points and 568 total yards against Tulsa and 45 points and 614 total yards against a decent Temple defense in tough weather conditions last week.  You can just imagine what they are going to do to this piss poor Charlotte defense this week.

The 49ers rank 133rd out of 136 teams in scoring defense at 37.2 points per game, 135th at 477.9 yards per game and 132nd at 6.7 yards per play.  They are yielded 54 to North Texas, 49 to Temple and 54 to USF in three of their last four games coming in.  They went for 74 combined points with UNT, 63 with Temple and 80 with USF.  They are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall due to their poor defense.  

Charlotte will do enough offensively to contribute to this total as they will keep coming late in the game no matter the score, which they have shown.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's, no wind and no chance of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Tulsa/FAU OVER 64

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off in this AAC showdown Saturday in what should be one of the highest-scoring games of the weekend.  Florida Atlantic ranks 1st in tempo snapping the ball every 20.8 seconds while Tulsa ranks 5th snapping it every 21.8 seconds.  So this is a matchup of two Top 5 tempo teams and there should be a ton of possessions and more chances for points as a result.

Tulsa lost 41-27 for 68 combined points against East Carolina and 38-37 to Temple for 75 points in its last two games coming in.  FAU is 5-2 OVER in its last seven games overall going for 70 combined points with Florida A&M, 71 with Memphis, 86 with Rice, 66 with FIU and 74 with Navy.  This total of 64 isn't that high for a game involving these two teams.

Both defenses are a disaster.  FAU ranks 131st in scoring defense allowing 36.2 points per game and 102nd allowing 6.0 yards per play.  Tulsa ranks 101st in scoring defense allowing 29.6 points per game and 107th in total defense allowing 415.5 yards per play.  Both offenses should have their way with these two suspect defenses that will get worn down in the 2H due to the pace of both offenses.  

The forecast will also wear down both defenses.  Temps will be in the 80's with single-digit wins and only a 5% chance of precipitation, so the conditions look great for a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* BYU/Texas Tech ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on Texas Tech -10

Texas Tech is a real contender while BYU is a fraud.  That will play out this week as Texas Tech buries BYU to hand the Cougars their first loss of the season.  College Game Day will be in Lubbock and it will be one of the best home-field advantages of the season for any team.

BYU is one of the most fraudulent teams in the country.  The Cougars are nowhere near as good as their 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS record would indicate.  They are 3-0 in coin flip games beating Colorado by 3, Utah by 3 and Arizona in OT.  This is where their luck runs out.

BYU got lucky to recover its own fumble to force OT against Arizona before winning.  BYU had no business beating Utah when you look at the numbers.  The Utes has 470 total yards while the Cougars had just 368 total yards, outgaining them by 102 yards.  It was just another example of just how fortunate they have been this season to remain unbeaten.

Then last time out, the Cougars trailed the Cyclones by double-digits before one of the worst INT's I've ever seen turned that game around.  The Cougars had a pick-6 later on in the game that also changed the tide.  BYU won by 14 despite giving up 495 total yards to Iowa State and getting outgained by 85 yards.  They were +3 in turnovers.

Texas Tech is the most complete team they will have faced yet.  The Red Raiders are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS this season with their only loss coming on the road in the final seconds against what was at the time a healthy Arizona State team, 26-22.  The Red Raiders have blown out everyone else as their eight wins have all come by 23 points or more.  That includes road wins over Utah by 24, Houston by 24 and Kansas state by 23.

The Red Raiders are 5-0 at home this season scoring 51.6 points per game and allowing 10.4 points per game, outscoring opponents by 41.2 points per game.  Their numbers are elite.  They are 4th in scoring offense at 43.6 points per game, 10th in total offense at 492.3 yards per game and 20th at 6.7 yards per play.  They are 5th in scoring defense allowing 13.2 points per game, 9th in total defense at 271.3 yards per game and 6th at 4.1 yards per play.  They are outscoring opponents by 28 points per game and outgaining them by 221 yards per game and 2.6 yards per play.

BYU averages 433.4 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play on offense and allows 318.2 yards per game and 4.9 per play on defense.  The Cougars are outgaining opponents by 115 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play.  While impressive, it's a far cry from what Texas Tech is doing.

BYU needs to be able to run the football to be successful on offense because their passing game is below average.  They are 17th in rushing offense but just 88th in passing offense.  Well, they haven't faced a run defense like Texas Tech, which will load the box and stop the run.  The Red Raiders rank 1st in the country allowing just 74.6 rushing yards per game and 2nd at 2.4 yards per carry.  This is just a complete mismatch.  Bet Texas Tech Saturday.

20* Sun Belt TOTAL OF THE MONTH on James Madison/Marshall OVER 54.5

At 7-1 on the season with its only loss on the road to Louisville, James Madison is very much in the running to make the 12-team playoff.  But the Dukes know they need style points while also winning out, and that has been evident in recent games.

James Madison beat Old Dominion 63-27 for 90 combined points two weeks ago and crushed Texas State 52-20 for 72 combined points last week.  The Dukes put up 624 total yards on a very good Old Dominion defense and another 511 total yards on Texas State last week.  They keep scoring late into the 4th quarter and keep piling on the points, and they will do the same if they get a chance against Marshall this week, which is why I like the OVER.

Marshall is a great OVER opponent as well.  The Thundering Herd are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall combining for 70 or more points in all five games.  They went for 70 with Middle Tennessee, 105 with Louisiana, 72 with Old Dominion, 77 with Texas State and 71 with Coastal Carolina.

Marshall has one of the better QB's in the country that nobody knows about in dual-threat Carlos Del Rio-Wilson.  He is completing 70.7% of his passes with a 13-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 418 yards and 4 scores.  But this is a very poor Marshall defense, one that ranks 112th in scoring at 32.5 points per game, 131st at 413.1 yards per game and 118th at 6.2 yards per play.  James Madison will get 40-plus here, and I trust Del Rio-Wilson and company to do enough to get us this OVER with ease.  

The weather looks great for a shootout with temps in the 60's, only 5 MPH wind and no chance of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Boston College +10.5

This is the Red Bandana game for Boston College.  It's a game that the Eagles get up for every year, so I'm not concerned about a letdown from them after playing Louisville and Notre Dame the last two weeks.  The Eagles will relish this opportunity to try and knock off SMU, which made the 12-team playoff last year.

The Eagles are as healthy as they have been all season, and that return to health is a big reason they gave two playoff contenders in Louisville and Notre Dame bigger fights than they bargained for.  They only lost by 14 at Louisville as 26-point dogs and by 15 at home to Notre Dame as 31-point dogs.  This is a big step down in class against overrated SMU.

This is also a very tough spot for SMU.  After traveling clear out East in a 13-12 loss to Wake Forest two weeks ago, the Mustangs returned home and pulled the 26-20 (OT) upset win as 10-point dogs against Miami.  They tore the goalposts down and celebrated like they won the National Championship.

Now the Mustangs are in a letdown spot off that win and with Louisville on deck next week, making this a big sandwich spot.  They won't be motivated at all to beat Boston College, and now they will be extremely tired having to travel clear back out East this week.  They will be playing for a 6th consecutive week and won't have much left in the tank.

SMU just has not been impressive on the road this season.  They were in a dog fight with Missouri State as a 28.5-point favorite, not coming close to sniffing the cover.  They lost by 11 at TCU and were upset by Wake Forest.  Their win over Clemson comes with an asterisk because Clemson was without starting QB Cade Klubnik due to injury.  I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose this game outright against a BC team that will be more motivated than they will.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

15* Georgia/Mississippi State ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Mississippi State +9.5

Mississippi State has been undervalued all season going 8-1 ATS in its nine games.  The only non-cover came on the road to Texas A&M in what was a 7-3 game late in the 3rd quarter.  What they've done at home has been the most impressive upsetting Arizona State, and taking both Tennessee and Texas to OT.  Getting more than a TD here with Mississippi State at home against Georgia is a great value.

Georgia has been lucky to escape with wins in its three road games.  They needed a late TD and 2-point conversion to force OT against Tennessee, winning 44-41.  They needed help from the refs to beat Auburn 20-10, tacking on a TD int the final seconds to get the cover.  And last week they struggled to get by Florida 24-20 on a neutral as 7-point favorites taking advantage of a injury-depleted Gators team with an interim head coach.  Their luck may run out this week.

If you don't count the late TD they tacked on against Auburn, Georgia would have played in five one-score games in their six SEC games this season.  The fact of the matter is the Bulldogs just aren't as dominant anymore and don't have a stranglehold on the SEC.  A team like Mississippi State can hang with them as they have proven that against similar opponents all season.

There just isn't that much difference between these teams statistically.  Georgia averages 5.9 yards per play on offense and allows 5.0 per play on defense, while Mississippi State averages 5.8 yards per play on offense and allows 5.4 per play on defense.  Georgia is only 0.5 yards per play better than Mississippi State.  Asking the Bulldogs to go on the road and win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

20* Northwestern/USC FOX No-Brainer on USC -14

USC is a wagon at home and a terrible bet on the road, especially when traveling East.  The Trojans are 19-5 SU 14-10 ATS at home under Lincoln Riley, including 13-8 ATS as a home favorite.  The Trojans have two losses this season and will need an at-large berth if they want to make the 12-team playoff.  They need to win out and do it with style, so don't be surprised to see Riley keep pouring it on tonight to go for those much-needed style points in a primetime game on National TV.

The Trojans are scoring 52 points per game, averaging 591 yards per game and 9.3 yards per play at home this season.  They are allowing just 19.3 points pre game, 312.3 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play at home.  They are outscoring opponents by 33 points per game and outgaining them by 279 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play at home.  That includes an impressive 31-13 home win over Michigan.

Northwestern is overvalued after feasting on an easy schedule in going 4-1 SU in its last five games.  The wins have come against UCLA, ULM, Penn State and Purdue, while the lone loss was on the road at Nebraska by 7.  Against the only team the caliber of USC they have played, they lost 34-14 to Oregon in what was a 34-0 game before the Ducks called off the dogs, allowing the Wildcats to score 14 points in the final minutes of the 4th quarter in a misleading final.

Northwestern ranks 104th in scoring offense at 22.5 points per game and doesn't have the firepower to hang with the Trojans for four quarters.  The Trojans rank 55th in scoring defense allowing 22.4 points per game with the best defense of the Riley era.  This is also the best offense of the Riley era as the Trojans rank 9th in scoring, 6th in total offense and 1st at 7.6 yards per play.  Bet USC Friday.

15* CFB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Northwestern/USC OVER 49.5

USC is going to come close to covering this total on its own tonight.  The Trojans are scoring 52 points per game, averaging 591 yards per game and 9.3 yards per play at home this season.  This is the best offense of the Lincoln Riley era as the Trojans rank 9th in scoring, 6th in total offense and 1st at 7.6 yards per play overall.  The Trojans have motivation to get style points to try and make the 12-team playoff so they will try to run it up tonight.

Northwestern has faced so many bad offenses and played in a lot of bad weather this season that have kept their games lower-scoring.  Against the only offense that is even close to USC's caliber, they allowed 34 points to Oregon before the Ducks called off the dogs in the 4th quarter.  USC will not be calling off the dogs in this one.  I think Northwestern can get to 14-21 points to contribute to the OVER as well as they have reached at least 14 points in seven consecutive games.  Be the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Raiders/Broncos AFC West No-Brainer on Denver -8.5

Note: I really like a 6-point teaser with the Broncos -2.5/Eagles +8.5.  The Lions -2.5 or better is another good option to pair with the Broncos.

Teams on short rest off an OT game are 26-47 SU & 23-47-3 ATS over the last 20 years.  Road teams in this spot are 9-27 SU & 10-25-1 ATS.  Worse yet, those same overtime teams when playing on Thursday night football are 6-21 SU & 4-23 ATS over the last 20 years.

That's what the Las Vegas Raiders are up against tonight.  They are coming off a gut-wrenching 30-29 OT loss to the Jaguars last week in which their defense was on the field basically the entire 2H.  That game was their 'last stand', and they missed the potential game-winning 2-point conversion in OT.  It's going to be hard for them to get back up off the mat after that defeat.  

The Raiders were sellers at the trade deadline sending their best receiver in Jakobi Myers to the Jaguars.  This is likely the worst WR room in the NFL now and it's no wonder Geno Smith has looked like a shell of his former self all season.  The Raiders rank 29th in scoring at 16.5 points per game and 30th in total offense at 283.2 yards per game.  It's not going to get any better without Myers moving forward.

Geno is playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL to boot.  That offensive line will not hold up tonight against the best pass rush in the NFL in the Broncos, who lead the NFL with 40 sacks and are also 1st in allowing the fewest sacks (9) in the league.  Denver ranks 4th in scoring defense at 18.4 points per game, 3rd in total defense at 279.9 yards per game and 1st at 4.8 yards per play.

This tired Raiders defense will not be able to contain this Denver offense.  This Raiders D was on the field for 76 plays against the Jaguars on Sunday.  The Raiders have allowed 25 or more points in five of their last six games with the only exception coming against the lowly Titans.  They have allowed 30 or more points in four of their last six games.  Denver should easily win this game by double-digits, just as it did in both meetings last season.  Bet the Broncos Thursday.

20* UTSA/USF ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 67

South Florida is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bulls are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall finishing with 61 or more combined points in all six games.  The Bulls rank 2nd in the entire country in tempo snapping the ball every 21 seconds.

The Bulls are relentless on offense.  They are averaging 49 points per game, 574.8 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play in conference games.  They have incentive to run up the score as they are trying to not only win the AAC, but do it with style points.  We saw just that when they beat Charlotte 54-26 and North Texas 63-36 in recent weeks.

UTSA has gone 3-0 OVER in its last three games overall finishing with 74 combined points with Rice, 72 with North Texas and 74 with Tulane.  So this total of 67 isn't really that high when you look at recent results for both teams.  UTSA has an elite offense and terrible defense.

The Roadrunners racked up 48 points on a very good Tulane defense last week finishing with 523 total yards in the proces.  QB Owen McCown was near perfect, completing 31-of-33 passes for 370 yards and 4 TD in the win.  He should light up this soft USF defense as well.  But the Roadrunners allow 30.2 points per game, 401.6 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season to rank 113th, 124th and 103rd in the country in those respective categories defensively.

These teams last met in 2023 and finished with 70 combined points.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's, no wind and no rain expected.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Georgia Southern/App State ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on OVER 61

Georgia Southern is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Eagles are 6-2 OVER in their eight games this season finishing with 62 or more combined points in five of their last seven games overall.  The Eagles rank 33rd in tempo snapping the ball every 24.7 seconds.

Appalachian State plays even faster.  The Mountaineers rank 10th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.2 seconds.  They have gone 4-2 OVER in their last six games finishing with 60 or more combined points four times.  There will be a ton of possessions in this game, and this total of 61 is too short for a game involving these two teams right now.

Georgia Southern has one of the worst defenses in the country.  The Eagles rank 127th allowing 35.4 points per game, 133rd allowing 469 yards per game and 127th allowing 6.5 yards per play.  The Mountaineers should be able to name their number here, and I fully expect the Eagles to be able to keep up in a shootout.

Georgia Southern QB JC French is very comfortable in Clay Helton's offense.  He is completing 61.5% of his passes for 1,677 yards and 14 touchdowns while also rushing for 202 yards and five scores.  He should light up a App State defense that allowed 45 points to Coastal Carolina recently.  There will be no wind and no rain in the forecast for this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami (Ohio)/Ohio OVER 49

Ohio is a dead nuts OVER team with a great offense, the best QB in the MAC and a very leaky defense. This should be a high-scoring game against a Miami Ohio team that looks to have its best offense in years, but also one that has taken a big step back defensively this season.

Ohio has gone 3-2 OVER in its last five games finishing with 49 or more combined points in four of those five games. That includes a 48-21 win over NIU for 69 combined points, and that's a NIU team with one of the worst offenses in the country but a solid defense. They also went for 49 with EMU, 55 with Bowling Green and 77 with Gardner Webb.

This total of 49 is very low for a game involving Ohio. The Bobcats rank 34th in total offense at 434.8 yards per game and 32nd at 6.3 yards per play. They rank 120th allowing 6.3 yards per play. Parker Navarro is the best QB in the MAC, completing 67.6% of his passes for 1,786 yads with 11 TD while also rushing for 504 yards and 4 TD as a tremendous dual-threat.

Transfer Dequan Finn has been a huge get at the QB position for Miami Ohio. He has thrown for 1,257 yards and 7 TD, while also rushing for 384 yards and 4 TD this season.

Miami Ohio is 5-2 OVER in seven games this season, and that's largely due to their totals being so low based on previous seasons. But the Redhawks went for 74 combined points with Eastern Michigan, 79 with UNLV and 62 with Rutgers. They can keep up in a shootout when they need to, and I think they will need to tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Cardinals/Cowboys ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 51.5

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team and really should be 8-0 to the OVER this season instead of 6-2.  They combined with the Eagles for 41 points in the 1st Half before a lightning delay took all of the wind out of the sails of the offenses.  They combined for 38 points in the 1st Half with the Bears but the Cowboys suffered a ton of injuries on offense in that game and Dak Prescott was pulled late.

In their six OVERS, the Cowboys went for 59 combined points with the Jets, 77 combined points with the Giants, 80 combined points with the Packers, 57 combined points with the Panthers, 66 combined points with the Commanders and 68 combined points with the Broncos to sail OVER those totals.

Dallas ranks 2nd in scoring offense at 30.8 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 384.1 yards per game and 7th at 6.1 yards per play.  What makes this even more impressive is the fact that the Cowboys have been playing most of the season without multiple starting offensive linemen, WR CeeDee Lamb and WR/KR KaVontae Turpin.  Well, the Cowboys are now as healthy as they have been all season on offense with Lamb and Turpin back and all five starting offensive linemen expected to play.

What really makes the Cowboys a dead nuts OVER team is their defense, which cannot stop anyone.  The Cowboys rank 31st in scoring defense allowing 31.2 points per game, 31st in total defense allowing 404.6 yards per game and 32nd allowing 6.4 yards per play.  They are without FS Hooker, CB Diggs, LB Overshown, S Clark, LB Sanborn and S WIlson.  Fellow S Thomas and CB Revel are questionable.  What a mess this defense is.

The Cowboys allowed 30 points to Bryce Young and the Panthers, 37 to Russell Wilson and the Giants, 31 to Caleb Williams and the Bears, 40 to the Packers, and 44 to Bo Nix and the Broncos to name a few.  Dallas' three home games in perfect conditions in the dome this season went for 77 combined points with the Giants, 80 with the Packers and 66 to the Commanders.  The OVER is now 10-3 in Cowboys last 13 home games.

Arizona is 3-0 OVER in its last three games overall.  Jacoby Brissett took over for an injured Kyler Murray and kept the Cardinals competitive, losing 31-27 at Indianapolis for 58 combined points and 27-23 at home to Green Bay for 50 combined points.  Brissett led the Cardinals to 400 total yards against the Colts and 330 total yards against the Packers.  He is likely to get the start again this week after practicing with the first-team on Friday, and I like the OVER either way.

The Cardinals also have a pitiful defense.  They were diced up for 31 points by the Colts and 27 by the Packers the last two weeks.  Injuries are a big reason the Cardinals have regressed defensively.  CB Will Johnson, CB Garrett Williams, LB BJ Julari, DL Walter Nolen were all limited in practice on Friday and are highly questionable.  The Cowboys will dice them up, and the books just can't set these Dallas totals high enough.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Seahawks/Commanders NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Seattle -3

There's always one or two teams that it takes over half a season for bettors and books alike to catch up to just how improved they are year over year.  The Seattle Seahawks are one of those teams this season.  They remain undervalued as only 3-point road favorites over the Washington Commanders this week.

The Seahawks are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS this season. Their two losses came by 4 points to the 49ers back in Week 1 when the 49ers were healthy, and by 3 points to the Bucs back when the Bucs were a lot healthier, too.  Now it's the Seahawks who are as healthy as they have been all season coming off their bye week and ready to crush the Commanders.

The Seahawks rank 6th in scoring offense at 27.6 points per game and 4th at 6.2 yards per play.  Sam Darnold is proving his season in Minnesota last year was no fluke, and he is thriving in Kubiak's offense which really utilizes play-action as well as anyone.  The defense ranks 7th in scoring at 19.4 points per game and 2nd at 4.9 yards per play.  So the Seahawks are outgaining opponents by 1.3 yards per play on the season, which is one of the best marks in the NFL.

The Seahawks have one of the most complete defenses in the NFL when healthy.  The front seven has been the strength, consistently getting pressure without blitzing.  That has helped them deal with some injuries in the secondary.  But the Seahawks are much healthier there now as their best CB in Devon Witherspoon returns after the bye.  The only starter they are still missing is FS Julian Love, but Nick Emmanwori is emerging as a star in his place.

Regression has hit the Commanders hard this season after winning so many close games last season.  They are 3-5 SU & 3-5 ATS with four losses by 7 points or more.  That includes consecutive blowout losses to the Cowboys by 22 and the Chiefs by 21.  Their defense is old and slow and banged up right now.  They rank 27th in total defense at 372.8 yards per game and 28th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are without two of their best pass rushers in DE's Armstrong and Wise Jr., and their secondary is one of the worst in the NFL as Marshon Lattimore is on his last leg.

The Commanders have a great offense when they are fully healthy.  But that's just not the case right now.  QB Jaden Daniels is returning from a hamstring injury, but I don't think he will test it much, and without being a dual-threat he is limited.  He also won't have his favorite receiver in Terry McClaurin, who reaggrevated his quad injury last week against the Chiefs.  Deebo Samuel has lost a couple steps, and Noah Brown and Austin Ekeler are both on IR.

The spot really favors the Seahawks as they are off a bye while the Commanders are on a short week after traveling to Kansas City Monday.  The Seahawks are the better, fresher, healthier team right now and it's not close.  Over the last two seasons, teams who on short rest after facing the Chiefs are 0-4 SU losing those games by an average of 16 points per game.  Seattle is 10-1 SU in road games under Mike McDonald over the last two seasons.  Bet the Seahawks Sunday.

15* Chiefs/Bills AFC ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City ML -125

The Kansas City Chiefs have the best offense in the NFL right now with how healthy they are at the skill positions.  Since Xavier Worthy returned from injury, the Chiefs have averaged 30.8 points per game and 415.8 total yards per game in their last five games.  They just got Rashee Rice back from a 6-game suspension and racked up 434 yards against the Raiders as he scored two touchdowns in his return.  Rice had 9 receptions for 93 yards and a score against the Commanders in his 2nd game back.  It's an embarrassment of riches for Patrick Mahomes right now on offense.

The Bills just don't have the playmakers the Chiefs do on offense and it shows.  They were held to 14 points by the Falcons and 20 points by the Patriots in two of their last three games.  No question the Chiefs have the better, more explosive offense, and the difference is even more glaring on defense.

The Chiefs rank 4th in total defense at 277.8 yards per game and 3rd in scoring defense at 16.4 points per game.  They are fully healthy on defense right now.  The Bills rank 23rd allowing 5.7 yards per play this season.  They are going to be much worse off defensively this week due to some key injuries.  They are without their two best defensive linemen in DT Ed Oliver and DT DaQuan Jones, leaving a gaping hole in the middle of their defense.  They are also without SS Raylor Rapp and FS Damar Hamlin.  CB Taron Johnson is questionable, and LB Shaq Thompson is out.

Getting the Chiefs are basically a PK in their current state up against the Bills in their current state is a gift here.  Bet the Chiefs on the Money Line Sunday.

20* AFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Raiders OVER 45

This is a good time to 'buy low' on an OVER between these two teams.  The Jaguars went under the total in their two games going into the bye week while scoring 12 points against the Seahawks and 7 points against the Rams.  The Raiders went under the total in three straight games heading into their bye week scoring 6 points against the Colts, 20 against the Titans and 0 against the Chiefs getting shut out.

I expect both offenses to be much sharper coming out of the bye week with first-year head coaches and first-year coordinators.  The Jaguars have the talent on offense to be explosive, and they certainly have a great offensive head coach in Liam Coen to get the most out of them.  After all, the Jaguars put up 31 points on the Chiefs, 26 on the 49ers, 27 on the Bengals and 26 on the Panthers earlier this season so the potential is there.

Chip Kelly should have this Raiders offense looking as good as it has all season.  The Raiders have been without their two biggest weapons for Geno Smith for weeks now in WR Jakobi Meyers and TE Brock Bowers.  Well, both of those guys return this week, and that's going to make all the difference for Smith and company.  This offense played well earlier in the season when both were healthy.  Bowers means everything to this offense, and it should help open things up for Ashton Jeanty.

These are two mediocre to below averages defenses in the NFL.  The Raiders rank 23rd in scoring allowing 25.7 points per game.  The Jaguars rank 21st in total defense at 336.9 yards per game and 19th at 5.6 yards per play.  Jacksonville S Eric Murray has been placed on injured reserve, and LB Devin Lloyd who is their best defender is questionable with a calf injury.

It will be perfect conditions in the dome at Allegiant Stadium for scoring.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bears/Bengals OVER 50.5

Two of the worst defenses in the NFL square off in what should be a shootout with the offenses having the advantage.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, no wind and no rain Sunday in Cincinnati.

The Bengals have played in two straight shootouts since trading for Joe Flacco.  They went for 64 combined points with the Steelers and 77 combined points with the Jets.  Those are two of the worst offenses in the NFL, and the Bengals allowed 31 points and 396 yards to the Steelers and 39 points and 502 yards to the Jets, who were without their two best receivers in Wilson and Reynolds to boot.

The Bengals legitimately have the worst defense in the NFL, especially now that they are down their best defender in DE Trey Hendrickson.  The Bengals rank dead last in scoring defense at 31.6 points per game and dead last in total defense at 407.9 yards per game.  They also rank 30th allowing 6.4 yards per play.

But the offense has more juice now with Flacco, who is a big upgrade over Jake Browning.  He led the Bengals to 33 points and 470 total yards against the Steelers in his first start and followed it up with 38 points and 398 total yards against the Jets last week.  I know Flacco left late in that game with a shoulder injury and came back in.  But Flacco says he feels good to go this week even though he is listed as questionable.

The Bears and their opponents have combined for at least 45 points in six of their seven games this season.  The only exception was the Saints in a game played in sloppy weather in Chicago.  The Bears have a vastly improved offense under Ben Johnson, scoring 25 or more points in four of their last five games.  But they have a terrible defense, one that ranks 31st in the NFL allowing 6.4 yards per play.  So these are two of the three worst defenses in the NFL in terms of yards per play allowed.

Injuries are also a problem for this Chicago defense as they are without CB Kyler Gordon, CB Jaylon Johnson and DE Dominque Robinson.  Flacco should torch a Chicago defense that allowed 30 points and 6.0 yards per play to backup QB Tyler Huntley and the Ravens last week.  This game has shootout written all over it.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Falcons/Patriots OVER 44.5

The Falcons lost 34-10 to the Dolphins last week.  But their lack of offense was due to being without QB Michael Penix Jr., WR Drake London and WR Darnell Mooney.  Well, all three are back this week, and the Falcons are primed for a big offensive output against a suspect New England defense.

The Patriots have one of the most improved offenses in the NFL and should name their number against this banged up Falcons defense.  Drake Maye is having a MVP-caliber season, leading the Patriots to 8th in scoring offense at 26.6 points per game and 3rd at 6.2 yards per play.  He is doing it without much of a running game as this is a pass-happy, explosive offense.  Maye is completing 75.2% of his passes with a 15-to-3 TD/INT ratio while averaging an eye-popping 9.0 yards per attempt.

The Patriots and their opponents have combined for at least 43 points in five consecutive games despite playing dead offenses in the Browns, Titans, Saints and Panthers during this stretch.  The Falcons will be one of the best offenses they have faced this season and I expect their defense to get exposed.  But this Atlanta defense was exposed for 34 points by the lowly Miami Dolphins last week.  Injuries are a big problem with DE Zach Harrison and CB Billy Bowman out, while LB Leonard Floyd, LB Jalon Walker and SS Jessie Bates are all questionable.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Carolina Panthers +13.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Panthers and 'sell high' on the Packers this week.  The Packers are coming off an emotional comeback win over Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers on Sunday Night Football, winning 35-25.  The Panthers are coming off a 40-9 blowout loss to the Bills, who were off their bye week and pissed off after two straight losses going into their bye.

The Panthers also didn't have Bryce Young last week, and backup QB Andy Dalton played with a broken thumb.  Well, Young is back this week, and he makes all the difference for this team.  The Panthers were 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their previous three games with Young at the helm.

Several key players at least got in limited practices this week which gives them a good chance at returning from injury after the Panthers were decimated last week.  That includes S Nick Scott, LB Trevin Wallace, G Chandler Zavala, G Damien Lewis and RT Taylor Moton.  The defense is very healthy, and the offense has all of its top playmakers available for Young.

The Packers just aren't getting margin on anyone.  They haven't won any of their last six games by more than 10 points.  They have a way of playing conservative when they get ahead, and aggressive when they are behind.  That makes it tough for them to get margin on anyone.  They only beat the Cardinals by 4, the Bengals by 9, tied the Cowboys, lost outright to the Browns and beat the Commanders by 9.

The Packers have some concerning injuries on defense with Lukas Van Ness and Nick Niemann out, while LB Quay Walker is highly questionable.  K Brandon McManus is still bothered by a quad injury and is questionable.  It's a sandwich spot for the Packers off the big road win over Rodgers and the Steelers, and with the defending champion Eagles on deck on Monday Night Football.  I just don't think they'll be fully focused this week to put away the Panthers by two-plus touchdowns.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Panthers/Packers OVER 43.5

The Packers are 3-0-1 OVER in their last four games overall finishing with 45 or more combined points in all four plus 80, 50 and 60 combined points.  The Panthers are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall finishing with 49 or more combined points in four of those five games.

The Panthers get Bryce Young back this week and all of his weapons are healthy.  The offensive line is a little healthier as well.  The Panthers should do their park against a Packers defense that has Lukas Van Ness and Nick Niemann out, while LB Quay Walker is highly questionable.

The Packers have one of the best offenses in the NFL and should also do their park against a Carolina defense that just allowed 40 points to the Bills last week and has allowed at least 24 points in six of its eight games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Vikings/Lions NFC North ANNIHILATOR on OVER 47.5

The Lions are an offensive juggernaut in a dome, especially at home.  The Lions are putting up 36.7 points per game, 389 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play at home.  When Detroit plays a home game and the total is below 50, the OVER is 18-8 under Dan Campbell.  The OVER is 40-21 in all Lions home games with a total less than 50 since 2015.

While Detroit is fully healthy on offense, the defense is another story.  The Lions remain without FS Kerby Joseph, and they have eight defenders on IR with another two out this week.  Their secondary is very beat up, and Kevin O'Connell and the Vikings are equipped to take advantage of it with one of the best sets up weapons in the NFL.

JJ McCarthy is set up for success as he returns from a bye week healthy and ready to go.  He has all of his top playmakers healthy in RB's Mason and Jones, WR's Jefferson Addison and Nailor and TE Hockenson.  The offensive line has some guys questionable, but McCarthy is mobile which will be a big upgrade from Carson Wentz, who just can't get away from pressure.

This Minnesota defense has been torched the last two weeks and is overrated.  The Vikings allowed 28 points and 316 passing yards to the Eagles and 37 points and 419 total yards to the Chargers.  Goff has owned Brian Flores and this blitz-happy Minnesota defense in his career, and that won't change this week.

The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings with 50 or more combined points in eight of those 10 meetings.  The Lions alone have scored at least 30 points in each of the last five meetings.  They will get 30-plus in this one as well to pave the way to us cashing this OVER 47.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Broncos/Texans AFC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 39.5

This is a very low total for a NFL game that will be played indoors in the dome in Houston in perfect scoring conditions.  I realize these are two of the best defenses in the NFL, but I don't think these two offenses are getting enough credit here.

The Broncos rank 10th in scoring offense at 25.9 points per game and 9th in total offense at 356.9 yards per game.  They have a better than average offense, especially with a creative mind like Sean Payton calling the shots.  He will find ways to scheme things up against the league's top-ranked defense to make Bo Nix and company successful.

The Texans are finding their groove offensively with some schematic changes to help protect CJ Stroud, and he's doing a great job of stepping up in the pocket and finding big plays downfield.  The Texans have averaged 28.8 points per game in winning three of their last four games.

Injuries are a big reason I'm on the OVER.  The Texans get back their two best receivers in Nico Collins and Christian Kirk and now have an embarrassment of riches when you add in the three young receivers from Iowa State who have stepped up in their place in recent weeks.  TE Dalton Schultz and RB Woody Marks both returned to practice on Friday and both are expected to play.  

Meanwhile, the Broncos lost 2024 Defensive Player of the Year CB Patrick Surtain to a pec injury, and not having him on the field to shut down one side of the field takes away a lot of what the Broncos rely on defensively.  This Denver defense is grossly overrrated as it is allowed 32 points to the Giants two weeks ago at home.  They also allowed 29 points and 473 total yards to the Colts.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Texans ML -122

The Texans are finding their groove offensively with some schematic changes to help protect CJ Stroud, and he's doing a great job of stepping up in the pocket and finding big plays downfield.  The Texans have averaged 28.8 points per game in winning three of their last four games.

Injuries are a big reason I'm on Houston this week.  The Texans get back their two best receivers in Nico Collins and Christian Kirk and now have an embarrassment of riches when you add in the three young receivers from Iowa State who have stepped up in their place in recent weeks.  TE Dalton Schultz and RB Woody Marks both returned to practice on Friday and both are expected to play.  

Meanwhile, the Broncos lost 2024 Defensive Player of the Year CB Patrick Surtain to a pec injury, and not having him on the field to shut down one side of the field takes away a lot of what the Broncos rely on defensively.  This Denver defense is grossly overrrated as it allowed 32 points to the Giants two weeks ago at home.  They also allowed 29 points and 473 total yards to the Colts.

The Broncos are 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in their four road games this season.  They needed a 14-point comeback to beat the Eagles and only beat the Jets by 2 in London.  They also lost outright to both the Colts and Chargers.  I think this is a tough spot for the Broncos, who are a tired team that hasn't had their bye week yet while the Texans have.  They are coming off two shootout home wins over the Cowboys and Giants following that trip to London.  I question how much they have left in the tank for the Texans, who need this win like blood while the Broncos can afford a loss as they are in 1st place in the AFC West alone.  Bet the Texans on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Chargers -9.5

Some teams bettors and the books just can't adjust down enough for how terrible they are.  That has been the Tennessee Titans for two years running.  After going 3-14 ATS last season, the Titans are now 2-6 ATS this season and were fortunate to get the two covers they had.  They covered by a half-point against the closing line in an 8-point loss to the Broncos as 8.5-point dogs in the opener.  They were about to be down 28-6 to the Cardinals in the 4th quarter before the Cardinals fumbled celebrating a TD too early going into the end zone.

So the Titans are now 5-20 ATS in their 25 games over the last two seasons.  They are getting worse before they get better, largely due to injuries.  They lost by 10 to the Raiders on the road, by 18 to the Patriots at home and by 24 to the Colts in the road in their last three games coming in.  Cam Ward has no help on offense, and he's without his best weapon in WR Calvin Ridley.

The injuries are even worse defensively.  They are without their most important defender in DT Jeffery Simmons.  They are without their best LB in Arden Key.  And they are without two of their best players in the secondary in CB L'Jarious Sneed and FS Xavier Woods.  It's no wonder they allowed 31 points to the Patriots and 38 to the Colts in their last two games.

The Chargers come in on extra rest after blowing the doors off the Vikings 37-10 at home last Thursday.  They outgained the Vikings 419 to 164, or by 255 total yards.  Justin Herbert is playing at a MVP level, especially now that he finally has a healthy offensive line with Joe Alt, Trey Pipkins III, Bobby Hart and Mekhi Becton all back healthy.  He has unbelievable weapons especially with the emergence of TE Oronde Gadsden II and RB Kimani Vidal in recent weeks.

The Chargers rank 12th in scoring defense at 21.6 points per game and 5th in total defense at 296.9 yards per game.  They are getting better after shutting down the Vikings and are much healthier now.  Derwin James, Khalil Mack and Denzel Perryman are all healthy and back from injury.  The only key defender they are missing is CB Tarheeb Still.

Jim Harbaugh handles these situations well as a NFL head coach.  Harbaugh is 25-8 SU & 24-8-1 ATS when playing in EST or CST time zones as a head coach, including 16-3 SU & 15-4 ATS in Eastern time zones.  When coming off extended rest in these spots, his teams are 5-0 SU winning by an average of 15.8 points per game.  The Titans are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 home games.  The Chargers will crush the Titans in this one.  Bet the Chargers Sunday.

25* MWC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Hawaii/San Jose State OVER 57

San Jose State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Spartans are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall finishing with 59 or more combined points in four of the five.  The only game that went under finished with 55 combined points with Utah State, but that game had 995 total yards combined and easily should have went over the total.

San Jose State ranks 42nd in tempo and 1st in pass play percentage, throwing the ball 64.8% of the time.  That means more clock stoppages and more opportunities for points.  The Spartans average 315 passing yards per game.  They have a terrible defense that allows 6.3 yards per play and 298 passing yards per game and 9.0 per attempt.

Hawaii ranks 44th in tempo and 3rd in pass play percentage, throwing the ball 62.5% of the time.  So these are two of the top three teams in the country in pass play percentage, so there will be max clock stoppages.  After getting banged up early in the season, Hawaii star QB Micah Alejado is really hitting on all cylinders of late.

Hawaii beat Air Force 44-35 for 79 combined points and Alejado threw for 457 yards.  The Rainbow Warriors beat Utah State 44-26 for 70 combined points as Alejado threw for 413 yards.  And they beat Colorado State 31-19 behind 301 passing yards from Alejado.  He has a 9-to-2 TD/INT ratio over this three-game stretch, and now he's up against one of the worst secondary's he will face all season.  This game has shootout written all over it.  

The forecast also looks great for a shootout with temps in the 60's, no wind and no rain Saturday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma/Tennessee OVER 55.5

Tennessee is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Volunteers rank 4th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.8 seconds.  What is impressive about that is they have been involved in several blowouts in their favor, so they continue to run fast-paced offense no matter the game script.  We saw that when they were trying to tack on a TD late to cover the spread against UAB when they could have taken knees.

Tennessee is 6-2 OVER in all games this season finishing with 57 or more combined points in all eight games including 65 or more in seven of them.  It should have been 64 or more in all eight games but they ran out of time at the goal line against Alabama two weeks ago in a game that landed on 57.  This total of 55.5 is very low for a game involving the Vols.  They went for 85 combined points with Georgia, 75 with Miss State, 71 with Syracuse, 65 with Arkansas, 57 with Alabama and 90 with Kentucky in their six games against Power 4 opponents.

The Vols rank 2nd in scoring offense at 45.6 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 510.1 yards per game and average 7.0 yards per play.  Joey Aguilar was been a great transfer QB from Appalachian State, completing 65.9% of his passes for 2,344 yards with a 18-to-6 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for two scores.

This Tennessee defense is a problem, though.  The Volunteers have been without their two best cornerbacks for most of the season and opponents have taken advantage of them through the air.  They allowed 44 points and 304 passing yards to Georgia, 371 passing yards to UAB, 34 points to Miss State, 31 points and 496 total yards to Arkansas, 37 points to Alabama and 34 points and 476 total yards to Kentucky in their last six games.  They are allowing 36.0 points per game and 445 yards per game in SEC play.

Oklahoma's defense got a lot of hype in the first half of the season, but its numbers were largely due to playing one of the weakest schedules of opposing offenses possible.  The Sooners finally played an offense with a pulse last week and lost 34-26 at home to Ole Miss for 60 combined points.  They allowed 431 yards to the Rebels.  Tennessee has a better offense than Ole Miss.

John Mateer is now a month removed from the thumb injury that forced him out of action.  He says he's 100% healthy now, and he is in line for a big performance against this Tennessee defense.  He led the Sooners to 26 points against South Carolina and 26 against Ole Miss the last two games, and I expect him to have one of his best games of the season here as he'll need to to try and keep up with the Vols in a shootout.

The forecast looks great for a shootout in Knoxville Saturday night with temps in the 50's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Kentucky +11

With one of the worst offenses in the SEC, the Auburn Tigers just have a knack for playing in close games.  They play up and down to their level of competition.  They have no business being favored by double-digits here against a Kentucky team that is on par with them.

The Tigers rank 99th in scoring offense at 24.8 points per game, 108th in total offense at 340.6 yards per game and 111th at 5.1 yards per play.  Each of Auburn's five SEC games to this point were all decided by 10 points or fewer.  They are 1-4 SU in SEC play with their only win coming last week 33-24 at Arkansas only after the Razorbacks handed them the victory with four turnovers including three late and a 49-yard INT return TD to give them the lead with under 10 minutes remaining in the 4th.

Kentucky is coming off two straight misleading losses that have the Wildcats undervalued.  They lost 16-13 to Texas despite outgaining the Longhorns 395 to 179, or by 216 total yards.  They lost 56-34 to Tennessee last week despite only getting outgained by 28 yards.

What really stands out is how much better this Kentucky offense is playing since its bye three weeks ago.  The Wildcats put up 395 total yards on that vaunted Texas defense and then 476 total yards on Tennessee.  Freshman QB Cutter Boley has been impressive, completing 66.5% of his passes with 9 TD's on the season and is getting more comfortable each week.

No doubt Kentucky has the advantage at QB in this one.  And Auburn only averaging 170 passing yards per game, so stopping the run is the key to stopping Auburn.  The Tigers average 171 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry on the season.  Well, the strength of the Kentucky defense is stopping the run as they only allow 132.6 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry.  The weakness of both defenses is their pass D, but only one of these QB's (Boley) is a good passer, and I'll gladly take Kentucky catching double-digits here.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Wake Forest +10

Wake Forest is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Demon Deacons are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS this season and even the two losses were impressive.  One came 30-29 to Georgia Tech after their first bye week as 13.5-point dogs.  That's a Georgia Tech team that remains unbeaten this season.  The other was a 10-point loss to NC State, but they led that game 24-17 going into the 2H and were on a short week and ran out of steam in the 2H.

The last two games going into the bye week were very impressive.  They won 30-23 as 5-point dogs at Virginia Tech, outgaining the Hokies 347 to to 263, or by 84 total yards.  They won 39-14 on the road at Oregon State as 2.5-point favorites, outgaining the Beavers 468 to 309, or by 159 total yards.  They then had another bye week before coming back to upset SMU 13-12 as 4.5-point home dogs last week despite committing five turnovers.  They outgained the Mustangs by 55 yards and put an end to their 20-game ACC winning streak.

So Wake Forest has had two bye weeks already and just had one two weeks ago.  I think it negates the fact that Florida State is coming off its bye week as I don't think the Seminoles will really be that much fresher than the Demon Deacons.  I also question how much Florida State cares to finish out this disastrous season.

The Seminoles are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in ACC play this season with nothing to play for but pride.  They were upset at Virginia as 7-point favorites, were upset at home by Pitt as 10.5-point favorites and were upset at Stanford as 18-point favorites.  QB Thomas Castellanos is coming off a concussion suffered late in that loss to Stanford, and he may not be his usual aggressive self, and his dual-threat ability will be limited.

Wake Forest has a huge advantage on defense in this one.  The Demon Deacons are only allowing 24.8 points per game, 331.5 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play in conference play this season.  Florida State is allowing 32 points per game, 386.8 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play in conference play.  I'll gladly back the better defense with more to play for catching double-digits in this one.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Tech -5.5

Georgia Tech is 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS this season as one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Yellow Jackets have elite numbers averaging 7.3 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.5 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.8 yards per play.

NC State will be no match Saturday.  The Wolfpack are 4-4 SU & 3-5 ATS this season with one of the worst defenses in the country.  They allowed 36 points and 485 total yards to Notre Dame and 53 points and 509 total yards to Pitt in their last two games coming in.  They won't have much success against Haynes King and this high-powered Georgia Tech offense this week, either.

NC State's offense is potent, but it is much less potent now after losing its biggest playmakers in WR Justin Jolly to injury in last week's blowout loss to Pitt.  Jolly has a team-high 36 receptions for 365 yards and five TD this season.  He was CJ Bailey's go-to guy out of the slot in key 3rd down situations.  Leading rusher Hollywood Smothers (825 yards, 6 TD, 28 receptions, 170 yards) is also questionable for this one.

With a bye on deck next week, Georgia Tech will be fully focused for this one.  I think the Yellow Jackets easily win this game by a TD or more.  Bet Georgia Tech Saturday.

20* USC/Nebraska NBC No-Brainer on OVER 59

USC is a wagon offensively this season under Lincoln Riley as this is his best offense in his time in Los Angeles.  The Trojans rank 1st in total offense at 530 yards per game and 2nd in scoring at 42.4 points per game.  They are also 1st averaging 7.8 yards per play.  They have my vote for best offense in the country.

Nebraska has an improved offense this season with a more pass-happy approach to take advantage of the talents of QB Dylan Raiola.  The Huskers are 38th in scoring at 31.6 points per game.  They will be able to keep up with USC in a shootout Saturday because they are going to be forced to as the Trojans can pretty much name their number.  Both teams are much stronger on offense than defense.

Nebraska is 6-1 OVER in its last seven games overall finishing with 57 or more combined points in five of those eight games and 65 or more four times.  The only two exceptions were against two dead nuts under teams in Minnesota and Northwestern, who also have two of the worst offenses in the Big Ten.  This USC offense is going to be by far the best that Nebraska has faced this season.

USC is 6-3 OVER in its last nine games overall finishing with 58 or more combined points in six of those nine games, including 66 or more in five of them.  The forecast looks great for a shootout Saturday night with no wind and no rain.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* SEC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on South Carolina/Ole Miss OVER 54.5

Ole Miss really profiles as an OVER team.  The Rebels rank 10th in tempo snapping the ball every 23 seconds.  They also rank 19th in scoring at 37.0 points per game, 11th in total offense at 484.2 yards per game and 24th at 6.5 yards per play.  They'll be up against a South Carolina defense that has taken a big step down from last season with all the talent they lost to the NFL.

We've seen what Ole Miss is capable of against two great defenses the last two weeks.  The Rebels won 34-26 at Oklahoma for 60 combined points and lost 43-35 to Georgia for 78 combined points.  I have no doubt the Rebels will get their points again this week, and South Carolina will be forced to try and keep up in a shootout.

The Gamecocks have one of the best QB's in the SEC in La'Norris Sellers who will be game.  Sellers played well in a 29-22 loss to Alabama last week.  He threw for 222 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for 67 yards and a score.  I think he is in line for one of his biggest games of the season against an Ole Miss defense that also has taken a big step down from last season with all of the talent lost to the NFL.

The Gamecocks also like to play fast ranking 41st in tempo snapping the ball every 25.3 seconds.  There are going to be a ton of possessions in this game with more opportunities for points.  The forecast looks great for a shootout Saturday night in Oxford too with temps in the 50's, no wind and only a 20% chance of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue +21

The Michigan Wolverines aren't the team you want to be laying three touchdowns with.  They have a run-heavy offense and they play at a snail's pace.  Those facts alone make it difficult for them to cover these big numbers.

Michigan ranks 19th in run play percentage at 58.7% and 105th in tempo snapping the ball every 27.9 seconds.  The Wolverines have been held to 24 points or fewer in four consecutive games basically when you take away the breakaway 56-yard TD run against Michigan State when they were just trying to run out the clock last week.  The managed 24 against Washington, 13 against USC and 24 against Wisconsin.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Purdue after six straight losses and five straight non-covers.  This is a team that is going to keep fighting under a first-year head coach in Barry Odom.  They outgained Minnesota and deserve to win, they were pretty even in the stats in their loss to Illinois, and they had control of the game against Rutgers basically the entire way until the final seconds in a 3-point loss.  Their only loss by more than 19 points this season came on the road at Notre Dame.

I like the matchup for Purdue because their defensive weakness is against the pass, but they have held up well against the run.  They allow just 4.0 yards per carry on the season, holding opponents to 0.6 yards per carry below their season averages.  Michigan threw for just 86 yards against Michigan State last week as the passing game continues to struggle.  Bet Purdue Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas State +7.5

The Kansas State Wildcats remain undervalued after a 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS start this season with losses by 3, 3 and 6 points.  The Wildcats have since gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games with their only loss coming by a single point at Baylor on a 52-yard FG as 6-point dogs.  They crushed UCF by 14 as 6-point home favorites, upset TCU by 13 as 3-point home dogs and upset Kansas 42-17 as 3-point road dogs.

The Wildcats had a bye prior to that win over Kansas, so they should still be very fresh for this game against Texas Tech and will be relishing this opportunity to try and knock off a Top 15 opponent.  Avery Johnson is really playing well right now at QB with a 15-to-2 TD/INT ratio on the season and 255 rushing yards and 5 scores.  He will be able to match Texas Tech score for score.

We saw how vulnerable the Red Raiders were in their last road game falling 26-22 at Arizona State as 7-point favorites.  Kansas State is better than Arizona State.  The Red Raiders were outgained 276 to 394 by the Sun Devils, or by 118 yards.  The weakness is this Texas Tech secondary, which allowed 30-of-39 passing for 245 yards to Kansas and 319 passing yards to Sam Leavitt and ASU.  Johnson should have a big game through the air here in likely leading K-State to an upset victory, but we'll take the inflated +7.5 for some extra cushion.  Bet Kansas State Saturday.

15* Big 12 Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Texas Tech/Kansas State OVER 51.5

This numbers looks too short for how good both of these offenses are playing right now.  The forecast looks perfect for a shootout in Manhattan Saturday with temps in the 50's, no wind and no rain.

Texas Tech has scored at least 34 points in seven of its eight games this season and ranks 5th in the country in scoring at 40.3 points per game.  The Red Raiders get back starting QB Behren Morton for this one, and while there's not a huge difference between him and backup Will Hammond, the offense has more big play potential with his stronger arm.

Kansas State has scored at least 34 points in four consecutive games and is averaging 37.8 points per game during this stretch.  Avery Johnson is playing the best football of his career with a 15-to-2 TD/INT ratio on the season and 255 rushing yards and 5 scores.  He will be able to match Texas Tech score for score.

Texas Tech and Kansas State have combined for at least 52 points in four of their last five meetings and 16 of their last 18 meetings overall.  This total of 51.5 is very short for a game involving these two Big 12 rivals.  Texas Tech ranks 17th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.8 seconds despite blowing out most of its opponents this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech +10.5

Virginia Tech still has one of the best home-field advantages in the country.  The Hokies are showing great value catching double-digits at home to Louisville Saturday.  The Hokies returned from their bye with a 42-34 win over California racking up 476 total yards including 357 rushing, outgaining the Golden Bears by 151 yards.

Now they should still be fresh and know they have a bye on deck next week, so they will be 'all in' to try and beat a Top 25 team here in Louisville.  I think the Cardinals are overvalued since upsetting Miami 24-21 on the road as 10-point dogs two weeks ago as the Hurricanes basically handed them the victory with 4 turnovers.

Louisville came back last week predictably flat in a 38-24 home win over Boston College as 26-point favorites.  That's a Boston College team that is on a 6-game losing streak including home losses to UConn by 15 and Clemson by 31, and a road loss to Pitt by 41 in its previous three games coming in.  It was a bad, bad look for Louisville.

This will be Louisville's first trip to Blacksburg since joining the ACC 11 years ago.  The Cardinals are 0-3 all-time in Blacksburg, one of the toughest places to play in the country.  Their home field is worth more than is being factored into the line here.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Iowa State -5.5

I jumped on Iowa State as soon as I heard that Arizona State QB Sam Leavitt was out.  I got further good news when WR Jordan Tyson was listed as doubtful.  I would still play Iowa State up to -10 given the news.

Leavitt and Tyson are worth more to the point spread than is being factored into this line even at the current number.  I have the downgrade from Leavitt to backup Sims at least 7 points.  Sims hasn't won anywhere he has gone, and he is only averaging 3.7 yards per attempt on his 49 passes and 3.0 yards per carry on his 29 rushes this season.  Tyson may be the best receiver in the country, catching 57 balls for 628 yards and 8 TD this season while single-handedly carrying the Sun Devils to their victory over Texas Tech two games ago.

Tyson was out and Leavitt got hurt in the 2H of their 24-16 home loss to Houston as 7.5-point favorites last week.  They actually trailed that game 24-0 in a misleading final.  Houston's mediocre offense had great success against this ASU defense finishing with 384 total yards despite sitting on the ball in the 2H, or it could have been worse.

Iowa State is a prideful team, and coming off three consecutive Big 12 losses the Cyclones have piss and vinegar running through their blood.  They also want revenge on Arizona State after losing to them in the Big 12 Championship Game last year to cost them a shot at the 12-team playoff.  I expect a big effort from the Cyclones Saturday.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Cyclones after going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall with three misleading losses.  They were missing a ton of starters in their 38-30 loss at Cincinnati in which they were only outgained by 9 yards.  They outgained Colorado by 46 yards in a 24-17 road loss in which they were done in by official.  And last week they outgained BYU 495 to 410, or by 85 total yards, but were -3 in turnovers including two interceptions that were both basically 14-point swings.  One pick 6 and one INT deep in BYU territory.

Iowa State got a much-needed bye two weeks ago and returned with a big performance against BYU in a game they had like a 70% post-game win expectancy, the biggest of any team that loss last week.  They are much healthier now and should still be pretty fresh for this one.  Not only are the Sun Devils without their two best players, but they are also a tired team playing for a 4th consecutive week after three very physical games against Utah, Texas Tech and Houston.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Cyclones this week.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* Vanderbilt/Texas ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 45.5

Vanderbilt really profiles as an UNDER team.  The Commodores rank 131st out of 136 teams in tempo snapping the ball every 30.1 seconds.  Possessions are limited in their games, so points are much harder to come by.

Texas also profiles as an UNDER team with a terrible offense and a great defense.  Texas is 5-3 UNDER in all games this season finishing with 45 or fewer combined points in five of its eight games, including 37 or fewer combined points four times.

Texas ranks 10th in scoring defense at 14.6 points per game, 20th in total defense at 300.6 yards per game and 12th at 4.4 yards per play.  But the Longhorns have an underwhelming offense with Arch Manning, who is questionable for this one coming off a concussion.  I'm good with the UNDER whether or not he plays.  The Longhorns rank 78th in total offense at 375.6 yards per game and 75th at 5.6 yards per play.  This is the worst offense of the Steve Sarkisian era at Texas.

Vanderbilt is 3-1 UNDER in its four SEC games this season finishing with 38 combined points with South Carolina, 44 with Alabama and 27 with Missouri.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Navy/North Texas OVER 65.5

This should be a back-and-forth shootout between two of the best offenses in the country up against two of the worst defenses in the country.  North Texas ranks 18th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.8 seconds.  The forecast looks great for a shootout in Denton with temps in the 60's, single-digit winds and no precipitation Saturday.

Navy is ranks 17th in scoring at 37.3 points per game, 11th in total offense at 477 yards per game and 2nd in the entire country at 7.6 yards per play.  They are 1st in rushing at 318.1 yards per game, and they have one of the best triple-option QB's of all-time in Blake Horvath.  Horvath is completing 65.2% of his passes for 1,063 yards and 7 TD while averaging 11.6 per attempt, while also rushing for 814 yards and 12 scores.

North Texas' biggest weakness is their run defense, which is not good news for them going up against the No. 1 rushing attack in the country.   They allowed 387 rushing yards to Army and 308 to South Florida.  They rank 120th against the run allowing 190.8 rushing yards per game and 92nd allowing 4.5 per carry.  Navy will get whatever it wants on the ground and will keep coming in what should be a back-and-forth shootout.

North Texas ranks 1st in scoring offense at 46.1 points per game, 6th in total offense at 494.5 yards per game and 17th at 6.8 yards per play.  QB Drew Mestemaker is completing 67.7% of his passes with a 21-to-4 TD/INT ratio.  Navy's biggest weakness is against the pass because they don't get to practice against a decent passing game every week.  In their three games against decent passing attacks they allowed 321 passing yards to UAB, 345 to Temple and 381 to Florida Atlantic.  North Texas has a better offense and passing game than all three of those teams.

Navy is 6-1 OVER in all games this season going for 62 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  North Texas is 6-1 OVER in its last seven games finishing with 63 or more combined points in six of those seven games, including 69 or more five times.  Both teams have incentive to keep running it up if they get ahead as both are in contention for the 12-team playoff.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Navy +7

What more does Navy have to do to get some respect? The Midshipmen should not be catching a full touchdown at North Texas this week, and they likely shouldn't be catching any points at all.

After going 10-3 last season, the Midshipmen brought almost everyone back and are off to a 7-0 start this season.  I like the fact that they've failed to cover the spread in four consecutive games coming into this one because it has provided us with some extra line value to back them this week.

Navy is ranks 17th in scoring at 37.3 points per game, 11th in total offense at 477 yards per game and 2nd in the entire country at 7.6 yards per play.  They are 1st in rushing at 318.1 yards per game, and they have one of the best triple-option QB's of all-time in Blake Horvath.  Horvath is completing 65.2% of his passes for 1,063 yards and 7 TD while averaging 11.6 per attempt, while also rushing for 814 yards and 12 scores.

North Texas is 7-1 this season but I have not been impressed.  They won by 3 over Western Michigan as 11.5-point road favorites and by 7 as 2.5-point road favorites at Army in OT.  Army is nowhere near as good as Navy, and North Texas was very fortunate to win that game.  Against the only team the caliber of Navy they have faced this season they were crushed 63-36 at home by South Florida as 2.5-point favorites.

North Texas' biggest weakness is their run defense, which is not good news for them going up against the No. 1 rushing attack in the country.   They allowed 387 rushing yards to Army and 308 to South Florida.  They rank 120th against the run allowing 190.8 rushing yards per game and 92nd allowing 4.5 per carry.  Navy will get whatever it wants on the ground and will keep coming in what should be a back-and-forth shootout.  Bet Navy Saturday.

15* Big Ten Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Rutgers/Illinois OVER 62

Rutgers has turned into a dead nuts OVER team.  The Scarlet Knights are 13-3 OVER in their last 16 games overall.  They are combining with their opponents to average a whopping 62.8 points per game in those 16 games.  This total of 62 is too low for a game involving Rutgers right now.

The Scarlet Knights have now scored at least 27 points in 10 of their last 12 games dating back to last season.  That includes games against quality defenses in Kansas State, Michigan State, Illinois, Iowa and Minnesota.  They went for 65 combined points with Ohio in a 34-31 win, 62 with Miami Ohio in a 45-17 win, 70 with Norfolk State in a 60-10 win, 66 with Iowa in a 38-28 loss, 59 with Minnesota in a 31-28 loss, and 66 with Oregon.

After going over the total in five consecutive games to start the season, the Scarlet Knights deserved to go over three weeks ago against Washington but fell just short with 57 combined points in a 38-19 loss and a total of 61.5.  It took a miracle to keep that game under, including a combined 6 red zone trips that went for zero points!  Rutgers had 493 total yards and Washington had 590 total yards, so these teams combined for a whopping 1,083 total yards in that game.

Oregon basically covered the OVER on its own two weeks ago putting up 56 points and 750 total yards against this awful Rutgers defense.  The Scarlet Knights are allowing 30.6 points per game, 425.9 yards per game and a ridiculous 7.7 yards per play, which is the 2nd-worst mark in the country.  But they have a very good offense scoring 31.4 points per game, averaging 426 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play this season.

Illinois is 4-1 OVER in its last five games overall finishing with 67 combined points with Washington, 70 with Purdue, 66 with USC and 73 with Indiana.  The only game that stayed under was against Ohio State in a 34-16 loss for 50 combined points with a 51-point total, but Ohio State has the best defense in the country and is a dead nuts under team.

Like Rutgers, Illinois' offense is way ahead of its defense this season.  The Fighting Illini are scoring 32.9 points per game.  Senior QB Luke Altmyer has been awesome, completing 71.2% of his passes for 2,020 yards with a 15-to-3 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.9 yards per attempt despite facing a tough schedule.  He is going to shred this suspect Rutgers defense.

It has been a bad look for this Illinois defense in conference play.  Indeed, the Fighting Illini are allowing 39.6 points per game, 451 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play in Big Ten action.  Rutgers is going to be able to keep scoring as it tries to keep up with Illinois in a shootout.  The forecast looks great Saturday with temps approaching 50, single-digit winds and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on UCF +3.5

I question how much Baylor really wants to finish out the season at this point.  The Bears are coming off consecutive road losses to TCU 42-36 and to Cincinnati 41-20.  The Bears only managed 266 total yards against a mediocre Cincinnati defense last week as their offense finally couldn't make up for one of the worst defenses in the country.

Baylor ranks 120th in scoring defense at 32.6 points per game and 101st in total defense at 403.1 yards per game.  The Bears are wasting a great QB in Sawyer Robertson, who is forced to try and keep up in shootouts week after week.  Even when they win it's not by margin as they are 4-4 SU & 1-7 ATS this season with a 3-point win in OT against SMU and a 1-point win over Kansas State.  The only two teams they beat by more than 3 points this season were FCS Samford and the worst team in the Big 12 in Oklahoma State.

UCF is improving under first-year head coach Scott Frost.  The Knights are coming off their best performance of the season in a 45-13 win over West Virginia as 6.5-point home favorites.  They had a bye last week, so they have had two full weeks to prepare for Baylor, which is a huge advantage for teams with a first-year head coach.

UCF had a misleading 20-11 loss at Cincinnati the week prior.  UCF actually outgained Cincinnati 413 to 306, or by 107 total yards.  Holding that Cincinnati offense to just 306 total yards is no joke.  They went on to outgain WVU 578 to 210, or by 368 total yards.  The Knights have a much better defense than they get credit for, and the bye week gives QB Tayven Jackson extra time to overcome some injuries that have plagued him thus far.  

UCF is the better team, period.  The Knights average 6.4 yards per play on offense and allow 4.7 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.7 yards per play.  The Bears average 6.1 yards per play on offense and allow 5.6 yards per play on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.5 yards per play.  The Knights are primed for a big effort here and I fully expect them to pull off the upset, but we'll take the +3.5 points for some added insurance.  Bet UCF Saturday.

20* Memphis/Rice ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Rice +14

This is a bad spot for the Memphis Tigers.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, beating South Florida 34-31 in a game that many felt was the AAC Championship Game.  They have a short week while also having to travel clear to Houston to face Rice.  And they have an even bigger game against Tulane on deck that could decide which team makes the AAC Championship Game.  This is the ultimate sandwich spot for Memphis.

The Tigers could easily have three losses this season and probably should have three losses.  They did lose 31-24 at UAB as 24-point favorites in a clear lookahead spot with USF on deck.  They trailed Arkansas 28-10 late in the 3rd quarter at home before a bevy of Razorbacks blunders allowed them to come back and win 32-31, including a fumble when they were just trying to run out the clock to set up the game-winning FG.  Last week they trailed South Florida 31-17 heading into the 4th quarter before scoring 17 unanswered points to win 34-31, again taking advantage of USF mistakes.  USF outgained Memphis 564 to 450, or by 104 total yards.

Rice returned from a bye last week and upset UConn 37-34 as 10-point home dogs.  That's a UConn team that has been impressive this season.  The Owls used their bye week to really hone in on offensive improvement, and they put forth their best effort of the season racking up 491 total yards on the Huskies.  They rushed for 300 and threw for 191 more on 17-of-22 passing in a completely dominant effort on that side of the football.

Rice QB Chase Jenkins is completing 69.4% of his passes on the season whlie also rushing for 332 yards and four scores.  He is much better than he gets credit for, and this Rice offense should be able to move the ball at will on the ground against a Memphis defense that allowed 219 rushing yards to UAB and 295 to USF the last two weeks.

Memphis QB Brendon Lewis is not 100% and less of a dual-threat now than he was to start the season.  He was knocked out of the UAB and game and questionable all week leading up to the USF game.  Rice has been solid defensively this season allowing 4.4 yards per carry on the ground and 5.7 yards per play overall.  They are holding opponents to 28 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play less than their season averages.

This will be a great atmosphere for a Friday night home game for Rice.  The Owls will be looking at this like their 'national championship game', while the Tigers want to just get in and get out with a win.  I think it will be tough sledding for the Tigers given the sandwich spot on the short week.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Rice win this game outright, but getting a full 14 points is a gift.  Bet Rice Friday.

20* Ravens/Dolphins AFC No-Brainer on Baltimore -6.5

The Baltimore Ravens have new life.  The Pittsburgh Steelers are struggling with consecutive losses to fall to 4-3 on the season.  Now the Ravens are just two games back of the Steelers despite their disastrous 2-5 start to the season.  But that start has provided us with some line value on the Ravens moving forward.

Injuries were the biggest reason to the poor start.  The Ravens have been without Lamar Jackson since Week 4, and they have been without several key defenders who are all healthy now.  Jackson is back this week, and Roquan Smith, Kyle Van Noy, Nate Wiggins, Kyle Hamilton, Chidobe Awuzie and Marlon Humphrey are all healthy now after all previously missed time.

No question the Ravens have one of the league's top offenses when Jackson is healthy, and the defense is going to be one of the best in the league moving forward.  That was on display last week when the Ravens shut down the Bears 30-16 last week, winning and covering easily even with Tyler Huntley at QB.  They made life very tough on Caleb Williams and an improved Bears offense under Ben Johnson.

Now the Ravens take a big step down in class here against the injury-depleted Miami Dolphins, who are 2-6 this season.  The Dolphins are without two of their biggest playmakers on offense in Tyreke Hill and Darren Waller, and Waller's replacement in Julian Hill is out this week.  And already terrible Dolphins defense will be without CB Storm Duck and SS Ashtyn Davis this week, and DE Bradley Chubb is questionable.

The Dolphins are getting some respect after a 34-10 win in Atlanta last week.  Well, the Falcons were without QB Michael Penix Jr. and WR Drake London, and they were missing several starters on defense as well.  Bettors are quick to forget that the Dolphins lost 31-6 to the lowly Browns the previous week.  They have zero chance of keeping this game competitive against the Ravens.

The Dolphins have some terrible numbers.  They are averaging just 286 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play on offense, while allowing 344 yards per game and 6.1 per play on defense.  They are getting outgained by 58 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play.  They are 22nd in YPP on offense and 26th in YPP on defense.

I bet the Ravens -6.5 as soon as the line came out and would still play them at -7.5.  The Ravens also make a great teaser candidate this week if you want to use them in teasers it is a free bingo space.  Bet the Ravens Thursday.

15* CFB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Marshall/Coastal Carolina OVER 54.5

Marshall is a dead nuts OVER team with a great offense and terrible defense.  That has been on display the last four weeks as the Thundering Herd are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall.  They beat Middle Tennessee 42-28 for 70 combined points, lost 54-51 to Louisiana for 105 combined points, beat ODU 48-24 for 72 combined points and beat Texas State 40-37 for 77 combined points.

This total of 54.5 is very short for a game involving Marshall.  They have one of the best QB's in the country that nobody knows about.  Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is completing 74.4% of his passes for 1,133 yards with a 12-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 348 yards and four scores.  

The Thundering Herd will be able to name their number against a Coastal Carolina defense that ranks 98th in scoring at 28.3 points per game and 109th in total defense at 409.7 yards per game.  The Chanticleers allowed 37 points to App State, 47 to Old Dominion, 38 to ECU and 48 to Virginia.

The Chanticleers are 2-1-1 OVER in their last four games combining for 82 points with App State, 54 with ODU and 58 with South Alabama.  The only game that went under came against a dead nuts under team in ULM that plays slow, only runs the ball and had QB injuries.

Coastal Carolina plays at the 31st-fastest tempo in college football.  The Chanticleers are coming off their best offensive performance of the season putting up 45 points on Appalachian State.  They also put up 38 points on South Alabama, and they should keep it rolling tonight against a Marshall defense that ranks 114th in scoring defense at 30.9 points per game, 114th in total defense at 413.6 yards per game and 115th allowing 6.2 yards per play.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

25* CFB Tuesday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on UTEP +10

It's time to 'sell high' on Kennesaw State.  The Owls are 5-2 overall and 3-0 in C-USA play while sitting in 1st place in the conference.  They have benefited from playing the 126th-ranked schedule in the country.

The Owls also benefited from LA Tech's starting QB getting knocked out early in their last home game, and they are coming off a misleading 45-26 win at FIU last week in which they were outgained and allowed a whopping 518 total yards to FIU.  They lost some key defenders to injury in that game, and also their starting QB Odom and starting RB Bennett, who are both listed as questionable to play this week.

While Kennesaw State was watching its roster get decimated by injuries in the win over FIU last Tuesday, UTEP was sitting, resting and watching.  The Miners had a bye last week and will be the fresher, more prepared team tonight as a result.

I was happy to see UTEP finally bench QB Malachi Nelson in their last game, a 35-17 win over Sam Houston State.  They must have felt like they had to start him after paying him in the transfer portal, but they have finally done the right thing and started the much more talented Skyler Locklear in his place.

Locklear went 21-of-26 for 236 yards and 2 TD with 1 INT, while also rushing for 48 yards and two scores in the 35-17 win over Sam Houston State last time out.  The Miners racked up 411 total yards in the win.  Their offense will be much more explosive moving forward, and their defense is one of the most underrated in C-USA.

In fact, the Miners have the much better defense than the Owls in this one.  UTEP only allows 5.1 yards per play on defense including 3.7 yards per rush.  Kennesaw State allows 5.7 yards per play on defense and 4.5 yards per rush.  So we are getting the rested team with the better defense and an improved offense catching double-digits here.  Bet UTEP Tuesday.

20* Commanders/Chiefs ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 46.5

The Kansas City Chiefs have the best offense in the NFL right now with how healthy they are at the skill positions.  Since Xavier Worthy returned from injury, the Chiefs have averaged 31.5 points per game and 411.8 total yards per game.  They just got Rashee Rice back from a 6-game suspension and racked up 434 yards against the Raiders as he scored two touchdowns in his return.  It's an embarrassment of riches for Patrick Mahomes right now on offense.

The Commanders won't offer them any resistance tonight, and the Chiefs should hang up another big number here to lead the way in us cashing this OVER 46.5 ticket.  The Commanders rank 21st in scoring defense at 24.3 points per game, 27th in total defense at 364.3 yards per game and 28th at 6.1 yards per play.  They just allowed 44 points to the Cowboys last week and they are so banged up on defense right now.  They have one of the worst secondary's in the NFL, and that secondary is getting no help with four key depth pieces on the defensive line on IR in Armstrong, Wise, Jackson and Jean-Baptiste.  DT Daron Payne is questionable as well.

But a big reason I'm on the OVER this week is because the Commanders get back their two biggest playmakers in WR Terry McClaurin and WR Deebo Samuel from injury after both missed the Dallas game last week.  I'm not concerned about the drop off from Jaden Daniels to Marcus Mariota because Mariota has proven he can get it done when he has his weapons.

The OVER is 3-0 in Mariota's three starts this season combining for 65 points with the Raiders, 61 with the Falcons and 66 with the Cowboys.  Mariota went 15-of-21 for 207 yards and a TD in leading the Commanders to 41 points against the Raiders.  He threw another pair of TD passes in leading them to 27 points against the Falcons and didn't have McCLaurin in that game either.  The Commanders are fully healthy on offense coming into this one outside of QB.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Packers/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh +3.5

I love the spot for the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.  They will be playing with piss and vinegar in their blood after getting upset 33-31 by the Bengals on Thursday Night Football last week.  They could have been caught looking ahead to this huge game, which is the Aaron Rodgers revenge game.  It's the first time Rodgers will get a shot at his former team, and his Steelers teammates love him.  They will rally around him and get him that win, and at the very least the Steelers should not be 3.5-point home dogs to the Packers this week.

Rodgers is proving he's still got it, completing 68.6% of his passes for 1,270 yards with a 14-to-5 TD/INT ratio while only getting sacked 9 times.  Nobody gets the ball out faster than Rodgers, so I'm not concerned with Micah Parsons and this Green Bay pass rush.  Cleveland has a similar pass rush, and the Steelers dominated them 23-9 two weeks ago.  Rodgers went 21-of-30 for 235 yards and 2 TD and didn't get sacked once against the Browns.

This Pittsburgh defense will be one of the most improved in the NFL moving forward if they remain as healthy as they are right now.  Injuries were a big reason they struggled up to this point as they have been without CB Porter Jr., FS Elliott and LB Highsmith among others at times.  But they are fully healthy on defense now, and the Packers are fully healthy on offense as well with only C Frazier questionable.  In fact, you would be hard-pressed to find a team more healthy than the Steelers right now.

The Packers have just been getting by and are very close to being on a 4-game losing streak right now.  They lost outright as 7.5-point road favorites at Cleveland, they tied the Cowboys as 6.5-point road favorites, they only beat the Bengals by 9 off their bye week as 14-point home favorites, and last week they escaped with a 27-23 road win as 7-point favorites against Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals.  They were held to 262 total yards and were outgained by 68 yards by the lowly Cardinals last week.

This is a tired Packers team playing their 4th road game in 5 games.  The Steelers have the extra rest and preparation time from playing last Thursday, and I think that advantage will really work in their favor here as they will be more ready for the Packers.  Mike Tomlin is 19-13 SU & 22-7-3 ATS as a home underdog in his career.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Steelers Sunday night.

25* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cowboys/Broncos OVER 47.5

Note: I grabbed this OVER 47.5 Sunday night assuming it would go up and it has.  I would still make this a 25* play up to the key number of 51.

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team and really should be 7-0 to the OVER this season instead of 5-2.  They combined with the Eagles for 41 points in the 1st Half before a lightning delay took all of the wind out of the sails of the offenses.  They combined for 38 points in the 1st Half with the Bears but the Cowboys suffered a ton of injuries on offense in that game and Dak Prescott was pulled late.

In their five OVERS, the Cowboys went for 59 combined points with the Jets, 77 combined points with the Giants, 80 combined points with the Packers, 57 combined points with the Panthers and 66 combined points with the Commanders to sail OVER those totals.

Dallas ranks 2nd in scoring offense at 31.7 points per game, 1st in total offense at 390.6 yards per game and 2nd at 6.2 yards per play.  What makes this even more impressive is the fact that the Cowboys have been playing most of the season without multiple starting offensive linemen, WR CeeDee Lamb and WR/KR KaVontae Turpin.  Well, the Cowboys are now as healthy as they have been all season on offense with Lamb and Turpin back and four of their five starting offensive linemen expected to play.

What really makes the Cowboys a dead nuts OVER team is their defense, which cannot stop anyone.  The Cowboys rank 30th in scoring defense allowing 29.4 points per game, 32nd in total defense allowing 401.6 yards per game and 31st allowing 6.3 yards per play.  They are without FS Hooker, CB Diggs, LB Overshown, FS Thomas and SS Wilson which are five starters.  They allowed 30 points to Bryce Young and the Panthers, 37 to Russell Wilson and the Giants, 31 to Caleb Williams and the Bears and 40 to the Packers to name a few.

This Denver defense is grossly overrated this season after playing an easy schedule of opposing quarterbacks last season.  They have faced an easy slate this season as well already getting to face Cam Ward, Jake Browning, Justin Fields and Jaxon Dart.  In their one game against a legit, healthy offense the Broncos found themselves in a 29-28 shootout with the Colts and allowed 473 total yards in the loss.  This Dallas offense is right in line with the Colts, and the Cowboys should have a lot of success against this Denver defense.

Bo Nix will be able to keep up in a shootout because he is going to have to.  He has proven he can when he needs to as he led them to a 33-32 comeback win over the Giants last week and 65 combined points.  He kept up with the Colts in a game that saw 57 combined points.  Sean Payton will be in his bag against this Cowboys defense, which is easily the worst he and Nix have been up against all season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Cincinnati Bengals -4.5

The Bengals sit at 3-4 on the season and very much alive in the AFC North.  They hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Steelers as well.  The Bengals will be max motivated here hosting the Jets with a chance to get back to .500 on the season.  And they host the Bears next week, so they know this is a very important stretch for them.

Joe Flacco has proven what he can do with the best set of weapons he's ever had in his career here in Cincinnati.  He came in midweek and found himself in a one-score game as 15-point road underdogs to the Packers late in the 4th quarter.  Then he came back on a short week on a Thursday night and led the Bengals to a 33-31 home win over said Steelers.

Flacco went 31-of-47 for 342 yards and 3 TD while leading the Bengals to 470 total yards against a very healthy, good Steelers defense.  He found Jamar Chase 16 times for 161 yards and Tee Higgins 6 times for 96 yards.  His success in the passing game finally opened things up for Chase Brown, who rushed for 108 yards on only 11 carries.

The Bengals beat the Steelers without their best defensive player in DE Trey Hendrickson (15 tackles, 3 sacks).  Well, Hendrickson is back this week now that he has the extra rest to recover after the Bengals played last Thursday.  The Bengals will be very fresh, and they are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.  They are primed for another big effort Sunday.

The Jets continue to get too much respect week in and week out despite being 0-7 this season.  Bettors continue to back them blindly thinking they will get their first win.  It didn't happen last week hosting the Panthers, and it's not going to happen this week back on the road against the Bengals either.

The Jets were a respectable team early in the season before the injuries started to pile up.  But they just can't compete in their current state.  The defense will be without CB Sauce Gardner for the first time this season.  They are without DE Jay Tufele and LB Cam Jones, and they could also be without LB Quincy Williams.

The injuries are worse on offense.  QB Tryod Taylor was expected to take over for the ineffective Justin Fields, but he's out this week so the Jets are stuck with Fields again.  And he has no chance considering the Jets are without their two best receivers in Garrett Wilson and Josh Reynolds.  It's embarrassing what they are sending out there at receiver this week.  Also, RB Breece Hall and TE Mason Taylor are both questionable.  They were already without Hall's backup in Braelon Allen, and they miss that 1-2 punch because the running game was the only thing they had going for them offensively this season.

Offense has been embarrassing for the Jets, indeed.  The Jets were held to 82 total yards by the Broncos two weeks ago in London.  They were held to 6 points and 220 total yards by the Panthers last week.  They just don't have the firepower to keep up with the Bengals, who are going to score plenty in this one to win by a TD or more and likely a blowout.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Baltimore Ravens -6

Note: I released this play Sunday night with the anticipation Lamar Jackson would be back this week.  I'm usually good at knowing injury information before most and getting ahead of line moves as evidenced by the closing line value I have on my other NFL plays this week.  But I was off the mark on this one.  When Jackson was practicing Wednesday, Thursday and getting a full practice in Friday, the line went to Ravens -7 and was pushing -7.5.  But he has since been announced out as of Saturday, and the Ravens will turn to Tyler Huntley at QB.  No question it's a downgrade for the Ravens, but I would still play them as a 25* up to -2.5, and a 20* at anything worse if you are buying this play later on in the week.

The Ravens are primed for a big performance coming out of their bye week.  They have opened 1-5 this season against the #1 toughest schedule in the NFL.  They have faced the #1 schedule of opposing offenses and the #2 schedule of opposing defenses.  They have also faced the #1 toughest schedule of opposing QB's.  Couple that will all of the injuries they have suffered, and it's no wonder they have opened 1-5.

While Lamar Jackson will be out this week, reinforcements are on the way, and I wouldn't be surprised to still see them win by a TD or more with Tyler Huntley at QB.  Huntley knows this offense and was a huge reason the Ravens ran off a NFL record 24 straight preseason wins.  He has ample playmakers on offense to make this work.

But I'm most excited about this Baltimore defense, which has been without starters Roquan Smith, Kyle Van Noy, Kyle Hamilton, Chidobe Awuzie and Marlon Humphrey at times this season.  Well, all of them are back coming out of the bye week, and this will be the most improved defense in the NFL moving forward.

This is the perfect storm of 'buying low' on the Ravens and 'selling high' on the Chicago Bears.  The Bears are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They won 25-24 on a blocked FG against the Raiders and a fumble on a simple handoff in a 25-24 win over the Commanders when they were just trying to run out the clock.  They took advantage of a Cowboys team at home that got decimated by injuries throughout the game, and they beat the lowly Saints at home.

I think it has been a lot more luck than actual good football from the Bears.  In fact, the Bears are +13 in turnovers in their last four games, forcing 15 and only committing 2!  That's unsustainable.  While the Bears are due some negative turnover regression, the Ravens are due some positive turnover regression.  Baltimore is -7 in turnover differential this season, committing 10 and forcing only 3.

The Bears will be without three starters in their secondary in CB Jaylon Johnson, CB Tyrique Stevenson and NB Kyler Gordon.  They will also be without TE Cole Kmet and LT Braxton Jones, while RB D'Andre Swift is questionable for this one.  The Bears are actually much worse off than the Ravens on the injury front right now.

The Bears rank dead last (32nd) in allowing 6.4 yards per play on defense.  They have just gotten away with it due to good turnover luck.  I wouldn't be surprised to still see the Ravens win and cover the original line of -6 that I got early in the week.  I fully expect them to win this game Sunday even without Lamar.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Carolina Panthers +7.5

I love NFL teams like the Carolina Panthers because you can keep making money on them week after week.  They were terrible last year, so bettors fail to adjust their power rating enough in the first half of the season.  But this Panthers team is one of the most improved in the NFL, and the odds just continue to fail to catch up to them.

The Panthers are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS at home this season, including a 30-0 win over the Falcons that is as impressive as any win you will find all season.  Now the Panthers find themselves as 7.5-point home underdogs to the Buffalo Bills this week, and I'm going to take advantage and back them again.

My favorite thing about the Panthers is that they are great in the trenches on both sides of the football.  They are 7th in total defense at 295.7 yards per game and 8th against the run allowing 92.6 rushing yards per game.  They are 3rd in rushing offense at 140.1 yards per game and 8th at 4.7 yards per carry.

The formula to beat the Bills is to run the football and stop the run.  Josh Allen can't do it on his own without a complimentary running game, and the biggest weakness of the Bills is their run defense, which ranks 31st in allowing 156.3 yards per game and 32nd in allowing 5.8 yards per carry this season.  That's really poor when you consider the Bills have faced one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this season.

The Panthers are as healthy as anyone in the NFL right now which is a big reason for their success.  I know Bryce Young will miss this game, but Andy Dalton is one of the best backup QB's in the NFL and steps into a great situation here.  This line is being adjusted too much for the perceived drop off from Young to Dalton.

A big reason the Bills have been upset in consecutive games is because they just aren't healthy.  They lost 23-20 as 8-point home favorites to the Patriots and 24-14 as 4-point road favorites at Atlanta.  Their defense has suffered the biggest blows as they will be without DT DaQuan Jones, SS Taylor Rapp, SS Damar Hamlin, and they could be without both LB Matt Milano and LB Terrell Bernard.  No wonder they struggle so much against the run.  They are also going to be without WR Josh Palmer and they could be without TE Dalton Kincaid again.

The Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and continue to be overvalued this week.  Home underdogs of 7 or more points in the first nine games of the season are 40-11-2 ATS since 2020.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

15* SEC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Tennessee/Kentucky OVER 54

Tennessee is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Volunteers rank 4th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.5 seconds.  What is impressive about that is they have been involved in several blowouts in their favor, so they continue to run fast-paced offense no matter the game script.  We saw that when they were trying to tack on a TD late to cover the spread against UAB when they could have taken knees.

Tennessee is 5-2 OVER in all games this season finishing with 65 or more combined points in all six of the eight games.  It should have been 64 or more in all seven games but they ran out of time at the goal line against Alabama last week in a game that landed on 57.  This total of 54 is very low for a game involving the Vols.  They went for 85 combined points with Georgia, 75 with Miss State, 71 with Syracuse, 65 with Arkansas and 57 with Alabama in their five games against Power 4 opponents.

The Vols rank 2nd in scoring offense at 44.1 points per game, 5th in total offense at 511 yards per game and 19th at 6.8 yards per play.  Joey Aguilar was been a great transfer QB from Appalachian State, completing 64.6% of his passes for 1,948 yards with a 15-to-6 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for two scores.

This Tennessee defense is a problem, though.  The Volunteers have been without their two best cornerbacks for most of the season and opponents have taken advantage of them through the air.  They allowed 44 points and 304 passing yards to Georgia, 371 passing yards to UAB, 34 points to Miss State, 31 points and 496 total yards to Arkansas and 37 points to Alabama in their last five games.

After playing two great defenses in Georgia and Texas, the Kentucky Wildcats should be able to let their hair down here against Tennessee this week.  They returned from their bye with a great game plan against Texas and actually racked up 395 total yards on one of the best defenses in the country.  Freshman QB Cutter Boley has his best performance of the season, completing 31 of 39 passes for 258 yards, while also rushing for 45 yards and a score in the 3-point loss.  He will have great success against this Tennessee defense that could be without leading tackler LB Arion Carter (61 tackles), who is questionable.  

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.