|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-16-21||Ravens v. Bills -139||3-17||Win||100||49 h 35 m||Show|
15* Ravens/Bills AFC BAILOUT on Buffalo ML -139
I'm going to take the points out of play here and back the Buffalo Bills on the Money Line Saturday night. The Bills are playing as well as anyone in the playoffs right now. They are 10-1 in their last 11 games overall with their only loss coming on the hail mary by Arizona. They are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall, and they have won seven straight SU with six of those coming by double-digits.
Josh Allen had an MVP-caliber season. He has guided the Bills to an average of 36.7 PPG in their last nine games overall as this offense is humming as well as any offense in the NFL right now. And the Bills have played much better defensively down the stretch to live up to their potential. They are giving up just 19.1 points per game in their last seven games overall.
Allen and the offense will get theirs against the Ravens, and it's going to come down to how well the Bills stop the run. They played soft against the run against the Colts last week because they were up 14 in the second half and defending the pass. They have allowed 86 or fewer rushing yards in four of their last seven games overall. And they have the speed at linebacker to contain Lamar Jackson.
This is a total different matchup here as the Bills can stack eight in the box to stop the run. Jackson can't beat them with his arm, and that's the knock on him. The Ravens are averaging just 155.9 passing yards per game in their last eight games. They have been held below 200 passing yards in 13 of their 17 games this season. So with Buffalo knowing it needs to stop the run to win this game, I think defensive minded head coach Sean McDermott comes up with the proper game plan to do just that. And you know if Buffalo gets ahead big the Ravens don't have the ability to come back.
Lamar Jackson has never played in snow and the conditions could really hurt him. He struggles to take care of the football as it is with terrible ball security. And temperatures are going to be in the 20's Saturday night in Buffalo with a 40% chance of snow and winds from 10-15 MPH. Allen is obviously used to playing in tough conditions dating back to his time at Wyoming. That's a huge advantage for the Bills in this one.
Baltimore is just 3-4 SU against teams with winning records this season. Buffalo is 6-2 SU against teams with winning records. The Bills are 7-1 ATS in all games where the line is +3 to -3 this season. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Buffalo being 10-1 SU in its last 11 games overall applies here since we just need them to win straight up. Roll with the Bills on the Money Line Saturday.
|01-16-21||Rams v. Packers -6.5||Top||18-32||Win||100||45 h 54 m||Show|
20* Rams/Packers NFC No-Brainer on Green Bay -6.5
The Green Bay Packers fought hard to get the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage in the first round. And now they are going to pay it off with a dominant win over the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Divisional Round Saturday.
The Packers have gone 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall with all six wins coming by 7 points or more and by an average of 15.0 points per game. That includes their 40-14 home win over the Titans in the snow. And it is going to be cold, windy and there is currently a 40% chance of snow.
That's bad news for a West Coast team in the Rams that is used to playing in perfect conditions. We've seen Jared Goff struggle in the past in cold weather in Chicago. And Goff is far from 100% right now. The only reason he played last week against Seattle was because John Wolford got hurt. He came in and didn't have much on his throws as he is dealing with a broken thumb still. And Wofford has already been ruled out, leaving it all on Goff.
Goff completed just 9-of-19 passes against the Seahawks last week. And he isn't the only injury concern here. The Rams' best defender in Aaron Donald suffered a rib injury that forced him out of action in the second half against Seattle. He will play, but he won't be is usual dominant self. WR Cooper Kupp (knee) was held out of practice Thursday and is questionable. LB Terrell Lewis (ankle) has been ruled out.
With Goff hobbled and Kupp not himself, the Rams are going to struggled to keep up with the Packers on the scoreboard. Aaron Rodgers is the MVP of the league with 70.7% completions, 4,299 yards and a 48-to-5 TD/INT ratio. He and Devante Adams have hooked up 115 times for 1,374 yards and 18 touchdowns. Aaron Jones quietly has rushed for 1,104 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 5.5 per carry. This is a Packers offense that is averaging 31.8 points per game on the season.
The Rams have really been held in check offensively down the stretch. The 30 points they scored on Seattle was fluky as they did it on just 333 total yards and an average of 4.9 yards per play. They were aided by a pick-6 early in that game. They are averaging just 20.2 points, 324.2 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play in their last five games overall. That's not going to get it done against an improved Packers defense that allows just 334.1 yards per game this season.
The Packers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in this series, winning five times by 10 points or more. The favorite is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. This trend continues as the rested Packers put it on the Rams for four quarters, and Jared Goff and company have no answer. Take the Packers Saturday.
|01-11-21||Ohio State v. Alabama UNDER 75||Top||24-52||Loss||-110||9 h 9 m||Show|
20* Ohio State/Alabama National Championship No-Brainer on UNDER 75
This total is being inflated due to Alabama's offensive numbers on the season and Ohio State's offensive barrage against Clemson that came out of nowhere. Justin Fields won't be nearly as effective against a much better defense here in Alabama.
Fields is dealing with a rib injury that held him out of practice most the week. Ohio State has yet to reveal the severity of it, but it's not good. And he's not about to do what he did against Clemson to Alabama. The Tigers were cheating up to stop the run all game, allowing Fields to go over the top time after time. Alabama will make the proper adjustment and make Ohio State drive the length of the field to score.
This is an Alabama defense that is giving up just 19.0 points per game this season. Ohio State also has a great defense, allowing just 22.0 points per game. The Buckeyes held Trevor Lawrence and Clemson's high-powered attack to just 28 points. What made that even more impressive was Clemson was in the hurry up most of the 2nd half trying to erase a big deficit.
The extra preparation time in between games favors the UNDER as well. The Buckeyes and Crimson Tide have both had 10 days to get ready for this game. That will favor the defenses more than the offenses in this one. And keep in mind if Alabama gets up they are more than happy with just sitting on the ball in the 2nd half. That was the case against Notre Dame in their 31-14 victory.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 63 or higher (Ohio State) - after beating the spread by 35 points or more in their last three games against an opponent that beat the spread by 49 or or more points in their last seven games are 26-4 (86.7%) over the last 10 seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
|01-10-21||Bears +10.5 v. Saints||9-21||Loss||-119||69 h 33 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Bears +10.5
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Chicago Bears off their 16-35 loss to the Packers last week. They were in that game in the 2nd half down only 5 before the Packers took over late. But it was a much closer game than the final score would indicate. The Bears actually outgained the Packers by 40 yards and held them to 316 total yards.
This Chicago offense has really come to life behind Mitch Trubisky down the stretch. They are averaging 30.2 points and 382.2 yards per game in their last six games overall, which have all come with Trubisky under center. Those are the kind of numbers that are going to make it tough for the Saints to put them away. And the Bears obviously have one of the better defenses in the NFL, giving up 344.1 yards per game on the season.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Saints, who are overvalued off back-to-back blowout wins over the Vikings 52-33 and Panthers 33-7. The Panthers had about five red zone trips end in zero points and turned the ball over five times. That was a hugely misleading final score, and it has provided us with some serious line value here on the Bears.
Consider that the Bears were only 4.5-point underdogs to the Packers last week and now they are 10.5-point underdogs to the Saints. That's a 6-point adjustment. Keep in mind the Packers beat the Saints earlier this season too, and the Bears have been competitive in every game outside of their two matchups with the Packers. They only have three losses by double-digits all season, and two were against the Packers. The other was against the Rams by 14, who were coming off a bye week.
Also consider that the Bears were 5-point underdogs to the Saints in their first meeting this season. They only lost that game 23-26 in overtime. So this is also a 5.5-point adjustment off that first meeting, which saw the Bears hang tough for four quarters and overtime, and I think they can hang tough again. Keep in mind that was Nick Foles at QB too for the Bears in that first meeting, and Trubisky is the better of the two quarterbacks, which has been proven here down the stretch.
The Saints have been choke artists in the playoffs in recent years. New Orleans is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 playoff home games, including 0-4 ATS in its last four playoff home games. They were upset by both the Rams and Vikings the last two seasons at home in the playoffs. Underdogs are 11-1 ATS in the 12 wild card games over the last three seasons. Teams entering the playoffs with an 8-8 record or worse are 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven instances in the Wild Card Round.
Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10.5 points (New Orleans) - off a road win over a division rival, a top team winning 75% or more of their games in the second half of the season are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Roll with the Bears Sunday.
|01-09-21||Bucs v. Washington Football Team +8||Top||31-23||Push||0||48 h 8 m||Show|
25* NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington +8
The Washington Football Team gets overlooked because they have a mediocre offense. But they have a championship level defense, and that fact alone gives them a chance to pull the upset here against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round. At the very least they should stay within this inflated 8-point spread.
Washington has allowed 20 points or fewer in seven straight games coming in. That's hard to do in today's NFL, and it just goes to show how dominant their defense has really been. They have arguably the best defensive line in the NFL, and the way to get to Tom Brady is with pressure, especially pressure up the middle. Washington can do just that.
Tom Brady has been awful in primetime games this year. He is 0-4 ATS in primetime games with five touchdowns and five interceptions. He has an 8:30 bed time, which may have something to do with it. And the Bucs come in overvalued on a 4-game winning streak, but all four wins came against teams with losing records. Tampa went 1-5 SU against teams with records of .500 or better this season. The temps will be in the 30s at game time so this is also Brady having to go outdoors in the cold weather, something you don't want from aging quarterbacks.
Washington may be a losing team at 7-9, but they have been a different team down the stretch and with Alex Smith under center. They have gone 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall. Their only two losses came with Dwayne Haskins as their starter. They are 5-0 SU in games that Smith has started to improve to 11-5 with Smith compared to 6-26 with all other starting QB's since he arrived in Washington.
The last seven teams that entered the playoffs with a record of 8-8 or worse have gone 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS. That includes outright upsets by the two teams that had 7-9 records. These teams consistently come in undervalued due to their record. But as stated before, Washington has been a much better team down the stretch than its record would suggest.
Tampa Bay has a huge loss on the defensive side of the ball that is getting overlooked. LB Devin White, the teams's leading tackler with 140 tackles, 9 sacks and 18 tackles for loss, will be out of this game due to COVID-19. I think his loss is a huge one, and it will allow Antonio Gibson to run the ball more effectively and take some pressure off of Smith.
Underdogs are 11-1 ATS in 12 Wild Card games over the last three seasons. Washington is 6-0 ATS off a win by 6 points or less over the last three seasons. Washington is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a win. Bet Washington Saturday.
|01-09-21||Colts v. Bills -6||Top||24-27||Loss||-110||41 h 59 m||Show|
20* Colts/Bills AFC Wild Card No-Brainer on Buffalo -6
Nobody is playing better than the Buffalo Bills coming into the playoffs. The Bills would be on a 10-game winning streak if not for the fluke Hail Mary by Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals. But that loss may have been a blessing in disguise because the Bills have been dominant ever since.
Indeed, the Bills have won six straight games all by double-digits. They are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall. And this team continues to be undervalued week after week. They are lighting up the scoreboard with 37.9 points per game in their last eight games. Their defense is playing up to the level that it did last season. They are giving up just 18.3 points per game in their last six games.
Josh Allen is by far the superior quarterback in this matchup. I don't trust Philip Rivers to be able to match him score for score. Rivers is used to warm weather after playing in San Diego and also playing in a dome in Indianapolis. He will be out of his element here. Temperatures in Buffalo will be in the 20s around kickoff. I always like fading older quarterbacks with questionable arm strength like Rivers outdoors in the playoffs. We saw the Colts struggle outdoors early this season in elements when they lost 23-32 at Cleveland. They also lost outdoors at Pittsburgh in Week 16.
The Colts have played the single-easiest schedule int he entire NFL this season. They played the 32nd-ranked schedule. Buffalo played the 13th-toughest schedule. So that disparity in SOS definitely favors the Bills. The Colts went 2-4 against teams with winning records this season, while the Bills went 5-2 against teams with winning records, including 3-0 in their last three with all three wins by double-digits over Seattle by 10, Pittsburgh by 11 and Miami by 30.
And keep in mind the Bills rested their starters in the 2nd half of that 56-26 win over Miami last week. They will now be the fresher team here, which is a big factor considering this is the first game of the Wild Card round with kickoff set for 1:00 EST Saturday afternoon. The Colts found themselves in a dog fight with the Jaguars last week. They led 20-14 late in the fourth quarter with the Jaguars having the ball around the 50-yard line with a chance to take the lead.
The Bills are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall. The Colts are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game. Indianapolis is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games as an underdog. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. These four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing Buffalo. Take the Bills Saturday.
|01-03-21||Washington Football Team -1 v. Eagles||Top||20-14||Win||100||103 h 31 m||Show|
20* Washington/Eagles NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Washington -1
Washington wins the NFC East with a win Sunday night against the Philadelphia Eagles. It's safe to say they'll be max motivated. I don't think you can say the same for the Eagles, who were just eliminated from playoff contention with their 17-37 loss at Dallas last week. I always like fading teams the week after they have been eliminated from the playoffs.
The Eagles have now lost six of their last even games overall. Their injury situation is awful. They led 14-3 at Dallas las week before Fletcher Cox went out with a stinger. Dallas outscored them 34-3 the rest of the way. It's unlikely that Cox will be back this week, and he's their most important player on defense, especially when it comes to stopping the run and getting after the passer.
The Eagles are also missing a handful of players in the secondary. The Cardinals and Cowboys have both torched their defense the last two weeks. The Cardinals had 526 yards against them, while the Cowboys put up 513 yards against them. The talent level they are putting on the field might be the worst in the NFL right now on the defensive side of the ball.
Washington is likely to get Alex Smith back at quarterback this season. Washington is 10-5 with Smith as a starter, and 6-26 with everyone else over the last few seasons. I don't think they would have let Dwayne Haskins go if they didn't know Smith would return this week. There's a good chance they get back their best receiver in Terry McClaurin from injury this week as well. And RB Antonio Gibson returned last week and is back to full strength. So the matchup is a good one for this Washington offense.
But it's the Washington defense that has me excited to back them again this week. They have held six straight opponents to 20 points or fewer. No defense is playing better than theirs right now. They give up just 21.0 points per game this season. They held the Eagles to just 17 points and 26 total yards in their first meeting this season in their 27-17 victory. They also forced three turnovers, and Jalen Hurts had three turnovers against the Cowboys last week. Chase Allen and company will make life difficult on the rookie Hurts in this one. And it helps that Washington now has some game film on him after starting the last three weeks.
Washington is 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. The only two games they lost came with Haskins as a starter, and they were competitive in both with a 5-point loss to Seattle and a 7-point loss to Carolina. They upset the Cowboys, Steelers and 49ers with Smith at QB and I was on them in all three games. Even Taylor Heineke gave them a spark when he replaced Haskins last week, and they are good enough to win with him even if Smith can't go. I recommend betting this game early because when they announce Smith as a starter I expect this line to go to -3.
Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS in its last six games off an upset loss as a road favorite. Washington is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after gaining 350 or more total yards last game. Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. NFC East opponents. The Eagles are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss. Take Washington Sunday.
|01-03-21||Saints v. Panthers +7||Top||33-7||Loss||-114||99 h 39 m||Show|
25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Carolina Panthers +7
The New Orleans Saints are still alive for the No. 1 seed, but they would need a lot to go right and they know it. They'd need the Packers to lose to the Bears and the Seahawks to beat the 49ers, which would put them in a 3-way tie with both. They would win the tiebreaker based on their record against NFC teams in that scenario.
It's just unlikely to happen, and I think with the Saints knowing it, don't be surprised if they aren't 100% 'all in' for this Week 17 game. They would be better off resting their guys and getting ready for the playoffs. I think this line is adjusted too much in the Saints' favor because technically they still have something to play for, but the reality is that they aren't likely to improve their seeding.
What we do know is that the Carolina Panthers show up every week for head coach Matt Rhule. Washington had a chance to clinch the NFC East last week, and Carolina played spoiler in a 20-13 victory. And now the Panthers have a shot to play spoiler here against a hated division rival and will be 'all in' for their final game of the 2020-21 season.
It's also true that Carolina is much better than is 5-10 record would indicate. Indeed, eight of those 10 losses came by one score. The only two blowout losses came in their two meetings with Tampa Bay. They only lost 24-27 to the Saints in their first meeting this season, so they already proved they could play with them.
New Orleans is getting too much respect off its 52-33 win over a Vikings team that appeared to quit last week, at least defensively. The Panthers will offer a lot more resistance here. The Panthers held the Packers to 24 points and 291 total yards two weeks ago and should have won that game outright. And last week they held Washington to 13 points and forced four turnovers.
Teddy 'Covers' Bridgewater just keeps getting the money. He is 36-13 ATS in his career as a starter, including 24-5 ATS as an underdog. And the Panthers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs this season. This just goes to show that they come to play every week under Rhule, and that they have lost so many close games this season that they are consistently undervalued.
Injuries are starting to pile up for the Saints. They are without three key receivers in Michael Thomas, Deonte Harris and Tre'quan Smith. They just lost starting LB Kwon Alexander to a season-ending injury last week. He was starting to play well after getting claimed from the 49ers. Safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson (66 tackles, 1 INT) will be out with COVID. Fellow S Marcus Williams (59 tackles, 3 INT), DE Trey Hendrickson (12.5 sacks) CB Patrick Robinson (2 INT) and TE Josh Hill are all questionable.
New Orleans is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after outrushing its last opponents by 150 or more yards. Carolina is 6-0 ATS vs. teams that average 29 or more points per game over the last three seasons. The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings with only one loss by more than 5 points in those six meetings. The underdog is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Bet the Panthers Sunday.
|01-03-21||Falcons +7.5 v. Bucs||27-44||Loss||-120||6 h 43 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta Falcons +7.5
The Atlanta Falcons show up week in and week out since Raheem Morris took over. And they'll certainly show up in Week 17 against a division rival in the Tampa Bay Bucs. They want revenge after blowing a 24-7 lead to the Bucs in their first meeting this season just two weeks ago. And they don't have to wait long to get it.
While the Falcons have lost four straight, all four losses were by 5 points or fewer, and three were to playoff teams. They only lost 16-21 to the Saints and had a chance to win the game on their final drive. They lost 17-20 to the Chargers. They lost 27-31 to the Bucs. And they only lost 14-17 to the Chiefs last week as double-digit underdogs. They had a chance to win the game or send it to overtime late, but their kicker missed the game-tying field goal.
What makes the Falcons so intriguing all of a sudden is that they have played some tremendous defense down the stretch under Morris, who is their defensive coordinator. They have allowed 21 or fewer points in four of their last five games overall. And holding the Chiefs to just 17 points just goes to show how good this defense is playing right now.
The Bucs are overvalued off their 47-7 win over a Detroit Lions team that has quit and is banged up. Now they go from being 6-point favorites over the Falcons two weeks ago to 7.5-point favorites over them this week. That adjustment is not warranted considering the Falcons played them tough in that first meeting and only lost by 4 points.
And while the Falcons are very healthy right now, the Bucs are going to be without several key players in their defensive front seven. They will be without LB Shaquil Barrett, LB Devin White, DL Steve McClendon and DT Jeremiah Ledbetter. And I think this line is higher than it should be because Bruce Arians has come out publicly and said the Bucs are going to try and win and not rest starters. That has given us extra line value here. Don't be surprised if the Bucs do pull some starters in the second half of this one.
The Bucs are just 1-3 SU in their last four home games with their only win coming against the Vikings in a game that was closer than the 26-14 score would indicate. The Vikings left 10 points on the board with three missed field goals and a missed extra point. The Vikings outgained the Bucs in that contest as well.
The Falcons have lost just once by more than 7 points in their last 11 games overall. That was a 9-24 loss to the Saints in which they led 9-3 just before halftime before getting shut out the rest of the way. That makes for a 10-1 system backing the Falcons pertaining to this 7.5-point spread. Getting points with the Falcons has been a very profitable move. Atlanta is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games as a road underdog. Tampa Bay is 8-21-1 ATS in its last 30 games as a home favorite. Roll with the Falcons Sunday.
|01-02-21||North Carolina v. Texas A&M -7||Top||27-41||Win||100||38 h 2 m||Show|
20* UNC/Texas A&M Orange Bowl BAILOUT on Texas A&M -7
The Texas A&M Aggies felt snubbed that they didn't get into the four-team playoff. Now they are about to take out their frustration on North Carolina here in the Orange Bowl. And Jimbo Fisher always takes a workmanlike approach to these games and will have his team ready to go.
"You get in, you get out, and you've got to move on," Fisher said. "you got to the future, and listen, we get an opportunity to play in the Orange Bowl, like I said, one of the great bowl games in the history of this sport."
Texas A&M went 8-1 this season with its only loss coming to Alabama. The Aggies were led by a dominant defense that gave up just 21.1 points and 316.6 yards per game this season. Their defense will be by far the best unit on the field in this matchup. And it's by far better than the UNC defense, which allows 28.4 points and 395.8 yards per game.
North Carolina is known for a high-powered offense, putting up great numbers against suspect ACC defenses all season. But they were upset by both Florida State and Virginia. And the one defense they faced that was actually pretty good was Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish held them to 17 points and 298 total yards. This Texas A&M defense is capable of doing the same thing.
While Texas A&M had minimal opt-outs and should have basically their entire roster available, UNC had several key players opt out. The Tar Heels will be without two 1,000-yard rushers in RB's Javonte Williams and Michael Carter. They will also be without a 1,000-yard receiver in Dyami Brown. Plus, the leader of their defense and leading tackler in LB Chazz Surratt (92 tackles) has opted out as well. With all of this NFL talent out, the Tar Heels will be a shell of their former selves.
Plays on any team (Texas A&M) - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (4.8 YPC or more), after allowing 40 or less rushing yards last game are 35-9 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Aggies are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games. Texas A&M is 20-9-1 ATS in its last 30 games as a favorite. The Tar Heels are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win. Take Texas A&M Saturday.
|01-02-21||Oregon v. Iowa State -3.5||Top||17-34||Win||100||75 h 58 m||Show|
20* Oregon/Iowa State Fiesta Bowl No-Brainer on Iowa State -3.5
The Iowa State Cyclones have a sour taste in their mouths from losing to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game. The Cyclones got blown out by Notre Dame in their bowl game last year and lost a heartbreaker to Washington State the year before. They won't be lacking any motivation here. I have no doubt this senior-laden team wants to finish this season with an exclamation point in what has been one of the greatest seasons in program history.
I do question Oregon's motivation coming off a Pac-12 Championship in which they were gifted a spot in the title game due to COVID problems at Washington. They beat USC 31-24, but that was one of the most misleading finals of the season.
Oregon only managed 243 total yards against USC but forced three turnovers, which was the difference. The DUcks were upset as 13-point favorites by Oregon State and as 9-point favorites by California in their final two games of the regular season. So that's basically three striaght games where Oregon has not played well.
The Big 12 looks great in bowl games thus far. Oklahoma State beat Miami 37-34, Texas beat Colorado 55-23 and Oklahoma beat Florida 55-20. So we've already seen a Big 12 vs. Pac-12 matchup in Texas' 55-23 win over Colorado. And that was a Texas team with a ton of opt-outs and a backup QB in the second half. And Iowa State beat Texas.
Oregon gave up 27.3 points and 409.5 yards per game this season. Iowa State only gave up 21.8 points and 343.1 yards per game as they had one of the best defenses in the Big 12. Oregon doesn't trust QB Tyler Shough to unleash him. Shough only had 91 passing yards against USC in the Pac-12 Championship.
Iowa State trusts Brock Purdy to make all the throws. He is completing 66.4% of his passes for 2,594 yards with an 18-to-9 TD/INT ratio this season. He has also rushed for 343 yards and four scores. And the Cyclones had the leading rusher in the country in Breece Hall, who rushed for 1,436 yards and 19 touchdowns this season to put his name in the Heisman Trophy discussion.
Iowa State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games coming in. The Ducks are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games following an ATS win. The Cyclones are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games following a SU loss. Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a favorite. Bet Iowa State Saturday.
|01-01-21||Ohio State v. Clemson UNDER 68||Top||49-28||Loss||-109||14 h 12 m||Show|
25* Bowl TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Ohio State/Clemson UNDER 68
Clemson and Ohio State are very familiar with one another having played in the playoffs three times since the 2013 season. That includes Clemson's 29-23 win last year that saw only 52 combined points. Familiarity favors defense, and I can't believe the books have set this total this high for the Sugar Bowl rematch.
Both teams are elite defensively. Clemson gives up 17.5 points and 298.5 yards per game this season. They held Notre Dame to 10 points and 263 total yards in the ACC Championship Game. And they have allowed just 12.3 points per game in their last three games coming in.
Ohio State gives up 21.0 points and 358.0 yards per game this season. They have held their last two opponents to 11.0 points per game, including their 22-10 win over Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship Game.
And we saw how the Northwestern defense was able to stop Justin Fields. He went just 12-of-27 passing for 114 yards with two interceptions and zero touchdowns. Fields is also battling a thumb injury. The Buckeyes are more of a running team, which is going to favor the UNDER here as they try and milk the clock and limit possessions for Trevor Lawrence. They average 45 rush attempts per game compared to 27 pass attempts.
The UNDER is 4-0 in Buckeyes last four bowl games. The UNDER is 5-1 in Buckeyes last six games as underdogs. The UNDER is 7-2 in Buckeyes last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 5-0 in Tigers last five playoff semifinal games. The UNDER is 7-2 in Tigers last nine bowl games as a favorite. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|12-31-20||West Virginia v. Army +7||Top||24-21||Win||100||27 h 48 m||Show|
25* Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Army +7
The Army Black Knights have put together another great season under head coach Jeff Monken, who is quickly becoming one of the best coaches in program history. They sit at 9-2 on the season and will be highly motivated for a victory in the Liberty Bowl to get to 10 wins.
Army went from being a huge snub from a bowl game to finally getting a game against West Virginia, which was announced on December 21st. Monken fought for a bowl game and got it done for his team. Now I expect his players to respond in a great way here and make the most of this opportunity.
Give West Virginia credit for accepting this game, but it's not going to go well for them. The Mountaineers have had just over a week to get ready for the triple-option. They never see this physical style in the Big 12 and won't be ready for it. Players hate to face triple-option teams, which is why you see so many Military schools have so much success year after year.
We saw this West Virginia defense get gashed on the ground down the stretch. They gave up 179 or more rushing yards three times over their final five games, including 236 by Iowa State in their 6-42 loss in the season finale. And they didn't have to play Oklahoma, so their season-long stats look good, but they are a little skewed to say the least.
Army is going to punch WVU in the mouth for four quarters with a rushing attack that ranked fourth in the nation at 281.3 yards per game. They had four different players rush for between 401 and 502 yards, so they are a balanced attack that will hit you from everywhere they can on the ground.
This is a great Army defense that is giving up just 14.0 points and 271.1 yards per game as wlell. West Virginia's weakness is on offense at 26.8 points per game this season. Their offense really struggled down the stretch against the better competition they faced. They managed just 14.3 points per game in their final three games and also managed just 13 points against Oklahoma State earlier this season.
West Virginia is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games as a neutral field favorite, including 0-8 ATS in its last eight games as a neutral field favorite of 7 points or less. The Mountaineers are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 bowl games, including 0-6 ATS in their last six bowl games. Bet Army in the Liberty Bowl Thursday.
|12-30-20||Florida v. Oklahoma -2.5||Top||20-55||Win||100||51 h 42 m||Show|
20* Florida/Oklahoma Cotton Bowl No-Brainer on Oklahoma -2.5
The Oklahoma Sooners have been one of the best teams in the country since a shocking 1-2 start this season with losses to Kansas State and Iowa State to open Big 12 play. They have gone 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS since while outscoring the opposition by 23.0 points per game. They will win their 8th straight here in the Cotton Bowl against Florida.
Oklahoma has familiarity playing inside AT&T Stadium having just beating Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship. They will not be awe struck one bit, and it's an advantage for them getting to play there again less than two weeks later. And they will be motivated to knock off an SEC opponent here and put an exclamation point on what has been a tremendous turnaround season.
Oklahoma has another high-powered offense this year averaging 41.8 points per game. Spencer Rattler came on strong starting with the win over Texas. He completed 68% of his passes for 2,784 yards with a 25-to-7 TD/INT ratio this season, while also rushing for five scores. Rattler and this Oklahoma offense should pick apart a Gators defense that ranked 78th national in yards per pass attempt (7.6) and 93rd in passer rating (145.6).
But the key to this Sooners team is that they have the best defense they've had in the Lincoln Riley era. They give up just 21.9 points and 334.6 yards per game. They have been tremendous against the run, allowing 92 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry. Coordinator Alex Grinch has built a unit that thrives against fling-it-around schemes like this one run by Florida.
Florida is going to need to be able to run the football considering they will be without their top four receivers in this game. WR Kedarius Toney (70 receptions, 984 yards, 10 TD), TE Kyle Pitts (43, 770, 12 TD) and WR Trevon Grimes (38, 589, 9 TD) will all be sitting out this game to prepare for the NFL Draft. Jacob Copeland (23, 435, 3 TD) is also out due to COVID-19. Even with star QB Kyle Trask at the helm, this offense won't be anywhere close to firing on all cylinders.
I think Oklahoma is happy to be here as they were eliminated from the four-team playoff early in the season and have earned their way to this Cotton Bowl. I think Florida is not happy to be here as they had an outside shot at the four-team playoff down the stretch after an 8-1 start, but lost their final two games. They lost as 23-point favorites to LSU and then to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. I always like fading teams after playing Alabama. They won't be nearly as excited to play Oklahoma as they were Alabama, and that is evident with all these opt-outs.
Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Florida) - a good team outscoring opponents by 7-plus points per game, after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games are 44-17 (72.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. The Gators are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on fieldturf. The Sooners are 5-2 ATS in their last seven vs. SEC opponents. Bet Oklahoma Wednesday.
|12-29-20||Colorado +8.5 v. Texas||Top||23-55||Loss||-114||13 h 29 m||Show|
20* Colorado/Texas Alamo Bowl BAILOUT on Colorado +8.5
Karl Dorrell's first year at Colorado brought with it Pac-12 Coach of the Year honors. The Buffaloes were the surprise of the Pac-12 with a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS record with their only loss coming to Utah in the season finale. And now the Buffaloes are extremely happy to be playing in the Alamo Bowl.
The roles are reversed for Texas this year. They beat a flat Utah team in the Alamo Bowl that just missed the 4-team playoff after losing in the Pac-12 Championship. The Longhorns were the team that wanted to be there. I don't think they will want to be playing in the Alamo Bowl for a second consecutive season after having higher expectations during the regular season of winning a Big 12 title and coming up short.
Now Texas will be without several key players who have opted out, showing they don't care much about winning this game. They will be without leading receiver Brennan Eagles, left tackle Samuel Cosmi and another starter in senior Derek Kerstetter. There's also some uncertainty with right guard Denzel Okafor, who could miss the game due to COVID-19 protocols. The Longhorns are likely to start two true freshmen up front.
Colorado RB Jarek Broussard earned Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year honors this season by rushing for over 800 yards and 6.3 per carry in just five games. Dual-threat QB Sam Noyer is tough to deal with as he led the Buffaloes with five rushing touchdowns. And slowing down these two will be more difficult considering Texas will be without star DE/LB Joseph Ossai. He wreaks havoc in opposing backfields with 5.5 sacks and three forced fumbles this season.
Dorrell is 13-5 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Colorado. Dorrell is 9-2 ATS after allowing 37 points or more as the coach of the Buffaloes. It's clear that Colorado wants to be here more with all of these opt outs by the Longhorns. And they should be able to stay within a touchdown of Texas and likely pull off the upset. Bet Colorado in the Alamo Bowl Tuesday.
|12-28-20||Bills -7 v. Patriots||Top||38-9||Win||100||11 h 43 m||Show|
20* Bills/Patriots ESPN No-Brainer on Buffalo -7
The Buffalo Bills want the No. 2 seed in the AFC. That would give them home-field advantage all the way until they have to face the Chiefs in the the AFC Championship Game if both teams win out. Adding to their motivation is that they have been the little brother to New England for a few decades. They would love to pull off the season sweep here in emphatic fashion.
Of course the Bills are going to show up for a prime time game on National TV. And of course they are going to show up with it being the Patriots. So motivation won't be an issue for them, and I expect them to continue firing on all cylinders as they have been for weeks now.
Indeed, the Bills are 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall with their only loss coming on the hail mary by the Arizona Cardinals on the final play of the game. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six gmes overall with five wins by double-digits during this stretch. They beat the Broncos 48-19 last week, the Steelers 26-15 two weeks ago, the 49ers 34-24 three weeks ago, the Chargers 27-17 four weeks ago and the Seahawks 44-34 seven weeks ago.
Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level by leading the Bills to an average of 34.8 points per game in their last six games. And their defense is starting to play up to its potential now in holding the last four opponents to 18.8 points per game. They held the Steelers to 224 yards and the Broncos to 255 yards the last two weeks.
There's no way this pitiful New England offense is going to be able to keep up with Allen and company. They have averaged just 248.3 yards per game in their last four games coming in. They were held to 12 points against the Dolphins and outgained by 80 yards. They were held to 3 points and 220 yards against the Rams. And they were held to 179 yards against the Cardinals. They were also held to 291 yards in a misleading win over the Chargers. And now they are without their best CB in Stephon Gilmore, who would have been matched up with Stefon Diggs. Now Diggs, who has 111 receptions for 1314 yards this season, will have a huge game tonight.
The Bills are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. Buffalo is 11-4-2 ATS in its last 17 road games. The road team is 21-8-2 ATS in the last 31 meetings. Bet the Bills Monday.
|12-27-20||Falcons +11 v. Chiefs||Top||14-17||Win||100||3 h 19 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons +11
The Kansas City Chiefs are overvalued due to their 13-1 record. I have been selling high on them for weeks, except for last week I had them when they covered as closing 2.5-point favorites over the Saints. And now this is a huge letdown spot off that win over New Orleans as they won't be nearly as motivated to face the Falcons. Not to mention, they basically already have the No. 1 seed wrapped up in the AFC and a first-round bye.
The Chiefs have gone 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. They have won all six games, but all six wins came by 6 points or less. They just don't keep their foot on the gas and they just seem to be going through the motions waiting for the playoffs to come. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Falcons pull the upset here, and at the very least this 11-point spread is way too high.
The Falcons continue to play hard for Raheem Morris. In their last seven games, they have either won the game outright or lost by 5 points or fewer six times. So they have been competitive in every game. The only exception was the loss to the Saints 9-24 in which they led 9-3 but fell apart in the second half. They gave the Bucs all they could handle last week in a 27-31 loss. That's a Bucs team that went on to crush Detroit 47-7 on Saturday.
The Falcons have a very underrated defense that has allowed 24 or fewer points in four of their last five games overall. They will be able to slow down the Chiefs here. And Matt Ryan and company should be able to keep pace as well. They have scored 25 or more points in four of their last seven games and are averaging 25.8 points per game in their last four.
Kansas City is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games after gaining 400 or more yards in three straight games coming in. The Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight Week 16 games. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss. The Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as favorites. Bet the Falcons Sunday.
|12-27-20||Bears v. Jaguars OVER 46.5||41-17||Win||100||3 h 19 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bears/Jaguars OVER 46.5
The Chicago Bears have become an offensive juggernaut with Mitch Trubisky at quarterback. He has led the Bears to 30 or more points in three straight games now. And they have gotten their running game going, making things easier on him in the play-action passing game.
The Bears have rushed for at least 140 yards in all three games. They only had to punt once against the Vikings last week in their 33-27 victory. And now they face a Jaguars defense that gave up 40 points to Baltimore last week. In fact, the Jaguars have now allowed at least 24 points in each of their last 13 games, all losses. They give up 30.2 points per game this season. The Bears should get to 30-plus points for a fourth consecutive week.
The Jaguars should be able to do their part against a Bears defense that allowed 34 points to the Lions three weeks ago and 27 to the Vikings last week. I think Jacksonville should top 20 points in this one. Mike Glennon will be their quarterback, and he has been the best of the Jaguars' three different signal callers this season. It will be great weather in Jacksonville as well, which sets this game up to be a shootout.
The OVER is 20-7 in Bears last 27 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The OVER is 19-7 in Bears last 26 games as a road favorite. The OVER is 4-0 in Jaguars last four games following an ATS loss. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-27-20||Bengals v. Texans OVER 44.5||37-31||Win||100||3 h 19 m||Show|
15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Bengals/Texans OVER 44.5
The Cincinnati Bengals and Houston Texans have nothing to play for but pride. I like backing the OVER late in the season when that is the case. I see defense as being optional in this game, and for both the Bengals and Texans to hang big numbers offensively.
For starters, these are two of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Texans give up 27.6 points and 402.8 yards per game this season. The Bengals allow 25.4 points and 372.6 yards per game. The Texans still have a very good offense under Deshaun Watson, and the Bengals showed some life offensively last week with 27 points against a very good Steelers defense.
Houston is 19-6 OVER in its last 25 games coming off three or more consecutive unders. If the Texans hadn't fumbled inside the 5-yard line in the final seconds against the Colts two of the last three weeks, both those games would have gone OVER. I think that fact is providing us with some line value here with this total of only 44.5. Plus the Bengals have gone under the total in four of their last five while playing some very bad offenses in Washington, Giants, Dolphins, Cowboys and Steelers. That has also provided us with some value on the OVER. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-26-20||Dolphins -3 v. Raiders||26-25||Loss||-101||35 h 52 m||Show|
15* Dolphins/Raiders AFC Saturday Night BAILOUT on Miami -3
The Miami Dolphins have been the gift that keeps on giving for me and my premium clients. They will continue adding to our profits on the day after Christmas here against the fading Oakland Raiders. The Dolphins are now 9-5 SU this season and 11-3 ATS, the best ATS mark in the NFL.
Better yet, the Dolphins are now 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. They are currently the 7th seed in the AFC playoffs, tied with the Ravens for the final spot. They cannot afford to take their foot off the gas now, especially knowing they have a difficult game at Buffalo on deck next week. This is a must-win for them and they will play like it.
The Dolphins have the best scoring defense in the NFL at 18.4 points per game allowed. That's what makes them so underrated. Now they have Tua at quarterback coming into his own the last three weeks. Hew threw for 296 yards against the Bengals and 316 yards against the Chiefs before completing 20-of-26 passes against the Patriots last week. And the Dolphins showed they could win that game on the ground with 250 rushing yards in their 22-12 victory.
The Dolphins will be able to do whatever they want to offensively against a Raiders defense that gives up 30.1 points and 385.4 yards per game and just recently fired their defensive coordinator. It didn't matter much at all as they gave up 30 points and 402 yards against the Chargers last time out. And now after going 1-4 SU in their last five games overall, the Raiders have been all but eliminated from the playoffs and have nothing to play for the rest the way.
The Dolphins were missing three of their best weapons in WR Parker, WR Grant and TE Gesicki last week and still found a way to win with their running game and a high-efficiency game from Tua. But all three were close to playing last week, so there's a good chance they get back a few of them this week. The Raiders have a worse injury situation as they are missing a handful of starters on defense, have injuries all over their offensive line, and now Derek Carr had to leave the last game with a groin injury. He may return this week, but he won't be mobile at all and will probably hurt the Raiders more by playing than help them.
The Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games off two or more consecutive ATS losses. The Dolphins are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games, including 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games. Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last five December games. The Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, failing to cover the spread by a combined 66 points. I'll gladly back the better, more motivated team in this one that has a lot more to play for. Roll with the Dolphins Saturday.
|12-26-20||Liberty +7 v. Coastal Carolina||Top||37-34||Win||100||82 h 24 m||Show|
20* Liberty/Coastal Carolina Cure Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Liberty +7
The Liberty Flames were one of my favorite teams to back all season. They went 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS this season to earn head coach Hugh Freeze a hefty new contract. I had them against Virginia Tech as 17-point dogs earlier this season in a game they won outright. And their only loss came to NC State 14-15 after they had a last-second field goal blocked.
Liberty's stats are off the charts this season. They are outgaining opponents by over 190 yards per game. They give up just 307 yards per game defensively. They average nearly 40 points and 500 yards per game on offense. QB Malik Willis is one of the most underrated players in the country. He had a 20-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season. He led the team in rushing with 807 yards and 10 scores. He is just tough to handle.
It's time to 'sell high' on Coastal Carolina and their perfect 11-0 record. I was all ready to fade them with Louisiana in the Sun Belt Championship until COVID problems struck the Chanticleers. And now there may be lingering effects from that with a lack of practice time. I faded them with Troy in their regular season finale when the Trojans nearly won that game outright. And I'm going to fade them again here.
I think Liberty will be the more motivated team here. The Flames are extremely happy to be in this bowl game facing an unbeaten team. Coastal Carolina thought it might be playing in a New Year's 6 Bowl and probably would have had they beaten Louisiana. Instead of playing a big name Power 5 program, now they have to play Liberty. I just can't see them getting up for this game.
"Having another chance to face Coastal Carolina after it was taken away from us at the end of our regular season gives us a chance to finish off a magical season and another special win," Liberty coach Hugh Freeze said.
Freeze is one of my favorite head coaches to back because he is so underrated dating back to his time at Ole Miss. Freeze is now 62-35 ATS as a head coach. Liberty is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games as an underdog. The Flames are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall. Take Liberty Saturday.
|12-26-20||49ers v. Cardinals -4.5||Top||20-12||Loss||-101||31 h 7 m||Show|
20* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona Cardinals -4.5
Fading the 49ers has made me a lot of money this season. And I'm not about to stop now as they continue to be overvalued week after week, including here Saturday against Arizona in Week 16. The 49ers are now 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last six games overall with all six losses coming by 8 points or more. The Cardinals should be at least 7-point favorites in this matchup.
The 49ers have officially been eliminated from the playoffs after three straight upset losses to Buffalo, Washington and Dallas. Now they are down to third-string QB CJ Beathard, who is 1-9 as a starter in the NFL, including 0-3 in three meetings with the Cardinals. And their laundry list of injuries is worse than any other team in the NFL, which is the biggest reason they have struggled this season to a 5-9 record after nearly winning the Super Bowl last year.
The Cardinals are highly motivated right now to clinch a playoff spot. They are 8-6 and currently in the final spot in the NFC playoff race. They would clinch a spot in the postseason for the first time since 2015 if they win on Saturday and the Chicago Bears lose to the Jaguars on Sunday. They have owned the 49ers over the years as they are going for their 5th season sweep in the past 6 years after winning 24-20 at San Francisco in Week 1.
Kyler Murray looks fully recovered from a shoulder injury that hampered him for a few weeks during a three-game skid. But the Cardinals have since won their last two with a dominant 26-7 road win over the Giants and a 33-26 home win over the Eagles. The sign that Murray is healthy is that he is using his legs again with 21 rush attempts combined in those two victories.
The offense was certainly hitting on all cylinders against the Eagles with 526 yards as they outgained the Eagles by 104 yards. They had 390 yards on a very good Giants defense, and they held them to just 159 yards and outgained them by 231 yards. Now the season-long stats for the Cardinals really show they are a dominant team outscoring opponents by 4.4 points per game and outgaining them by 49.2 yards per game.
The 49ers cannot be trusted to hold onto the football. They have committed two or more turnovers in eight consecutive games and 10 of their last 11 games overall. Beathard is a turnover machine as well and will be running for his life in this one. And this 49ers defense looked to kind of quit last week in giving up 41 points to Dallas. They are just playing out the string right now and disappointed they have to be in Arizona over Christmas instead of being with their family due to the COVID restrictions in Santa Clara.
Plays against underdogs or PK (San Francisco) - after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, versus division opponents are 36-9 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons. Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record. The Cardinals are 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet the Cardinals Saturday.
|12-26-20||Western Kentucky v. Georgia State -3.5||Top||21-39||Win||100||75 h 11 m||Show|
20* WKU/Georgia State LendingTree Bowl No-Brainer on Georgia State -3.5
Conference USA teams have looked awful early in the bowl season. North Texas lost 28-56 to Appalachian State, Louisiana Tech lost 3-38 to Georgia Southern and FAU lost 10-25 to Memphis. All three failed to cover the spread by over 40 points combined. Expect more of the same here for C-USA member Western Kentucky.
The Hilltoppers went 5-6 this season with four losses by double-digits. Their five wins came against some awful teams in Middle Tennessee, Chattanooga, Southern Miss, FIU and Charlotte. And three of those wins came by only 3 points each. Chattanooga is an FCS team and the four C-USA teams they beat have a combined record of 8-22 this season.
This is a big step up in class here for Western Kentucky. The Sun Belt has looked great early in the bowl season, including two matchups against Conference USA teams. Applachian State beat North Texas 56-28 and Georgia Southern crushed LA Tech 38-3. This is a different matchup here, but Georgia State was one of the better teams in the Sun Belt, which proved to be perhaps the most underrated conference in the country when you consider what Louisiana and Coastal Carolina did.
Georgia State only lost to Louisiana by 3, App State by 4 and beat Georgia Southern by 6. This is a veteran Panthers team that returned 16 starters and a ton of seniors this year. The Panthers had 14 players named to the All-Sun Belt Conference. And in his 24 seasons as a Division 1 coach, Shawn Elliott has been a part of 19 teams that have reached a bowl game or the NCAA playoffs.
"I am so proud of our players and the hard work to persevere through the season," Elliott said. "We talk about doing things for the first time, and back-to-back bowl games is another first for our program."
I just don't see how Western Kentucky is going to keep up with Georgia State in this one. The Hilltoppers struggled offensively all season, averaging just 18.8 points per game, which was last in Conference USA. Georgia State averages 32.7 points per game. The Panthers are led by QB Cornelius Brown, who has thrown for 2,046 yards and 14 touchdowns, while also rushing for 261 yards and seven scores.
The Hilltoppers are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. Sun Belt opponents. Western Kentucky is 2-8 ATS in Saturday games this season. Bet Georgia State Saturday.
|12-25-20||Vikings +7 v. Saints||33-52||Loss||-120||7 h 7 m||Show|
15* Vikings/Saints NFC ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +7
The Minnesota Vikings aren't officially eliminated from the playoffs yet. And until they are, I trust Mike Zimmer to have this team ready to go in Week 16 against the New Orleans Saints. After all, this is Christmas Day on National TV, so players will be up for this game to try and knock off the Saints. It's a Saints team they have quietly formed a rivalry with after meeting in the playoffs a couple times in recent years.
There's clearly value with the Vikings here. In fact, this is their largest underdog role of the season. They haven't been 7-point dogs or higher in any game this year. And in their two previous biggest dog roles, they lost in the closing seconds 26-27 as 6.5-point dogs at Seattle. They won outright 28-22 as 6-point dogs at Green Bay. And they deserved to cover had Dan Bailey not missed three FG's and an extra point in a 14-26 loss as 6-point dogs at Tampa Bay.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Vikings after going 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. But they have played better than that would suggest. In fact, the Vikings have now outgained seven straight opponents by an average of 63 yards per game. They have an offense that will keep them in this game with the Saints. They have averaged 407.3 yards per game in their last seven.
The Saints remain overvalued from a 9-game winning streak. But they have since lost their last two outright with a 21-24 loss to the Eagles as 7.5-point favorites and a 29-32 loss to the Chiefs as 2.5-point dogs. They were outgained by 55 yards by Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. Then they were fortunate to even be that close against the Chiefs considering they were held to 285 yards and outgained by 126 yards by the Chiefs. Kansas City also had a 34 to 15 edge in first downs.
Drew Brees looked to return too early from a rib injury that sidelined him for a handful of games. He completed just 15-of-34 (44%) of his passes against the Chiefs for 234 yards. It was all dink and dunk, and he clearly missed having Michael Thomas, who is on the IR. Not to mention he is without both Tre'quan Smith and Deonte Harris at receiver as well. The Saints are so thin at the position that they cannot be trusted to get margin here against a Vikings team that will keep coming due to their elite offense.
Minnesota has won three of its last four meetings with New Orleans. The Vikings are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games following two or more consecutive losses. They are winning outright by an average of 7.5 points per game in this spot. Zimmer is 14-3 ATS following two or more consecutive losses as the coach of Minnesota. The Saints are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games following an ATS loss. Minnesota is 38-14 ATS in its last 52 games following a SU loss. Take the Vikings Friday.
|12-25-20||Marshall v. Buffalo -4||Top||10-17||Win||100||53 h 19 m||Show|
20* Marshall/Buffalo Crampton Bowl No-Brainer on Buffalo -4
The Buffalo Bulls were the best team in the MAC this season. They were also one of the best non-power 5 teams in the country. And the fact that they lost outright to Ball State in the MAC Championship Game as a 12.5-point favorite has them undervalued heading into bowl season.
That was a misleading loss for Buffalo to Ball State. They racked up 499 total yards and outgained the Cardinals by 60 yards, but lost 28-38. Their season stats are off the charts as they score 47.8 points per game and give up just 23.8 points per game. They boast a rushing attack that averages 310 yards per game and 7.2 per carry behind one of the best backs in the country in Jaret Patterson, who is expected to play in this bowl game. Patterson has rushed for 1,072 yards, 19 TD and 7.6 per carry this season.
Marshall feasted on an easy schedule early in the season with a 7-0 start. But the Thundering Herd have been a different team since. They lost 20-0 as a 24-point favorite against Rice. Then they lost 13-22 as a 4.5-point favorite against UAB in the C-USA Championship Game. So their offense has been held to averages of just 6.5 points and 256.5 yards per game in their last two.
Their defense gave up 468 yards to UAB as they were outgained by 200 yards by the Blazers. UAB rushed for 216 yards on them, so you can imagine what this Buffalo rushing attack is going to do to them. And Marshall QB Grant Wells is awful, completing just 26-of-58 (44.8%) of his pass attempts with a 2-to-5 TD/INT ratio against Rice and UAB combined.
While Patterson and everyone is expected to play for Buffalo, Marshall has had three key players opt out. They will be without leading rusher Brenden Knox, who rushed for 887 yards and nine touchdowns this season. They will also be without leading tackler Tavante Beckett, who had 90 tackles and four fumble recoveries. And their best offensive lineman in G Josh Ball has opted out.
Conference USA teams have looked awful early in the bowl season. North Texas lost 28-56 to Appalachian State, Louisiana Tech lost 3-38 to Georgia Southern and FAU lost 10-25 to Memphis. All three failed to cover the spread by over 40 points combined. Expect more of the same here for C-USA member Marshall.
The Thundering Herd are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss. The Bulls are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning record. The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating more than 450 yards in their previous game. Bet Buffalo Friday.
|12-24-20||Hawaii +11.5 v. Houston||Top||28-14||Win||100||30 h 19 m||Show|
20* Hawaii/Houston New Mexico Bowl No-Brainer on Hawaii +11.5
We've already seen a couple AAC teams get destroyed in bowls already. Tulane lost 27-38 to Nevada, which this is also an AAC vs. Mountain West matchup. And UCF got blasted 49-23 by UCF. Keep in mind both Tulane and UCF scored late to make those final scores even closer than they really were. And I can't give Memphis much credit for its 25-10 win over a bad FAU team.
Now Houston is laying double-digits in this bowl game and it's simply too much. The Cougars went just 3-4 this season with thier only wins coming against Tulane, Navy and South Florida. Three of their four losses came by 17 points or more. So I'm not sure exactly what they have done to warrant being a double-digit favorite here.
Hawaii was solid in Todd Graham's first season this year. They only lost to the best the Mountain West had to offer with setbacks against Boise State, San Jose State, San Diego State and Wyoming. And they actually beat Nevada, which just beat Tulane.
Hawaii will never be out of this game with Chevan Cordeiro at quarterback. He is completing 62.1% of his passes for 1,947 yards with 11 touchdowns and only six interceptions, while also rushing for a team-high 452 yards and seven touchdowns. I like his dual-threat ability here.
Hawaii is extremely happy to be here. The Rainbow Warriors will be making just their third-ever trip to a bowl in the 48 contiguous states and first since the 2008 Sugar Bowl in New Orleans. And Graham has a chance to reach 100 wins as a head coach with a win on Christmas Eve.
"I am so excited for our team and staff," Graham said in a release. "They've worked hard throughout the entire season, under such challenging circumstances. This game is a great chance to showcase our team to the people of Texas and to a national television audience. Houston is a fine program and we can't wait to compete against them on Christmas Eve."
The Cougars are 2-6 ATS in their last eight vs. Mountain West opponents. Bet Hawaii Thursday.
|12-22-20||Tulane v. Nevada +2.5||Top||27-38||Win||100||5 h 8 m||Show|
20* Tulane/Nevada Potato Bowl No-Brainer on Nevada +2.5
The wrong team is favored in this Famous Idaho Potato Bowl between Tulane and Nevada given the circumstances. The least of which is that this is a short trip for the Wolf Pack at a familiar site in Boise, Idaho. It's a long trip for the Green Wave from Louisiana.
Tulane is strong in the trenches, but they will be without two starting defensive linemen, including a first-team all-conference player. They have another one questionable that was a first-teamer as well. That leaves Tulane's already poor pass defense that gives up 281 passing yards per game and 8.5 yards per attempt even more susceptible. Nevada QB Carson Strong should have a huge day through the air for a Wolf Pack team that averaged 325 passing yards per game and 7.9 per attempt this season.
Team chemistry will be off for the Green Wave as well. They lost both of their coordinators earlier this offseason. Offensive coordinator Will Hall was hired as Southern Miss' head coach. Defensive coordinator Jack Curtis was fired as well. They haven't had much time to get ready with their new coordinators and that makes this a very tough spot for them.
Tulane's offensive strength matches Nevada's defensive strength. The Green Wave average 219 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry. The Wolf Pack give up only 131 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry. Jay Norvell made recruiting huge, athletic defensive linemen a priority and it is finally starting to pay off for the Wolf Pack.
The Wolf Pack are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Nevada is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as an underdog. The Wolf Pack are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. Nevada is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a SU loss. Bet Nevada in the Potato Bowl Tuesday.
|12-21-20||Steelers v. Bengals +14.5||Top||17-27||Win||100||10 h 50 m||Show|
20* Steelers/Bengals ESPN No-Brainer on Cincinnati +14.5
This line has gotten out of hand. The Pittsburgh Steelers are now laying more than two touchdowns to the Bengals, and it's time to pull the trigger on Cincinnati. The Bengals will bring a big effort here knowing this is a Primetime game with their division rival coming to town.
It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Bengals, who have gone 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. They are coming off a misleading 7-30 loss to the Cowboys in which they lost fumbles on each of their first three possessions. I think it's safe to say that's not going to happen again. And keep in mind they outgained the Cowboys by 37 yards in that misleading loss.
There has been nothing misleading about Pittsburgh losing its last two games to Buffalo and Washington. They lost 17-23 at home to Washington as 5.5-point favorites and 15-26 at Buffalo as 2-point dogs. Their offense is broken right now as they have failed to reach 50 rushing yards in five of their last seven games. And their defense is banged up as the losses at LB of Bud Dupree and Devin Bush have really taken their toll.
Cincinnati has actually been playing its best defense of the season down the stretch. The Bengals have held three of their last four opponents to 20 points or fewer. And they just held the Cowboys to 272 total yards last week. Their defense can keep them in this game, and I expect their offense cant' be any worse than it has been in recent weeks. Ryan Finley started three games as a rookie in 2019, including a 16-10 loss to the Steelers. Getting a whole week of practice preparing to be the starter will help him succeed in this spot.
The Steelers are 0-6 ATS in their last six December games. The Bengals are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit home loss. Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games. The Bengals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss. Bet the Bengals Monday.
|12-20-20||Chiefs -3 v. Saints||Top||32-29||Push||0||74 h 2 m||Show|
20* Chiefs/Saints Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Kansas City -3
After failing to cover the spread in five consecutive games, it's time to 'buy low' on the Kansas City Chiefs as only 3-point favorites over the Saints. The Chiefs are the best team in the NFL and should be favored by 3 or more against any team in the NFL.
The Chiefs impressed me last week as they managed to beat the Dolphins despite committing four turnovers. They had 448 total yards against a good Miami defense. I was fortunate to get the cover with the Dolphins +7.5 in that game as they kicked a FG with 16 seconds left to only lose by 6. Kansas City is now 12-1 this season with 11 wins by 3 points or more.
The Saints are overvalued after winning nine of their last 10 and covering five of their last six coming in. But keep in mind that nine of those 10 games came against teams with losing record, so they have been feasting on an easy schedule. They finally had their winning streak snapped last week in an upset loss to the Eagles as 7.5-point favorites. They gave up 413 total yards to Jalen Hurts and the Eagles.
I know Drew Brees is expected to return this week, but I think he is coming back early from a terrible rib injury. He waited until his team finally lost and now is coming back. And now he won't have his favorite receiver in Michael Thomas, who has been place on IR and an ankle injury. Thomas was starting to really form a chemistry with Taysom Hill. He is arguably the best receiver in the NFL and without him I don't see the Saints being able to keep up with the Chiefs.
The Saints are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games after having won four of their last five games coming in. The Chiefs are 30-13 ATS in their last 43 games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of their last seven games coming in. The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Chiefs Sunday.
|12-20-20||Patriots v. Dolphins -1||12-22||Win||100||4 h 43 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Dolphins -1
The Miami Dolphins are 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall with one of those losses coming to the Kansas City Chiefs in which they covered. This team has been underrated all season and has made me a lot of money. And I'm going to continue to ride with them here against the Patriots.
The Dolphins are the team that has everything to play for right now at 8-5 on the season and not only alive for a wild card, but also the AFC East title. They have been winning behind one of the best defenses in the NFL that gives up just 18.8 points per game this season. And Tua Tagovailoa is getting comfortable in this offense, throwing for 296 yards against the Bengals and then 316 against the Chiefs in his last two games.
New England is 6-7 this season and basically eliminated from playoff contention. They had the wind lifted from their sails in a 3-24 loss to the Rams last week. And I question their level of motivation now this week here against the Miami Dolphins. I have no doubt the Dolphins will be the more motivated team, especially wanting to avenge their Week 1 loss at New England.
This Patriots offense is so pitiful that it cannot be trusted to do much against the Dolphins here. They are averaging just 230 yards per game in their last three games. They had 179 yards against the Cardinals, 291 against the Chargers and 220 against the Rams.
The Dolphins are 9-1 ATS when playing with six or less days' rest this season. Miami is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games. Miami is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game. These four trends combine for a 28-1 system backing Miami. Take the Dolphins Sunday.
|12-20-20||49ers v. Cowboys +3.5||33-41||Win||100||4 h 43 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Dallas Cowboys +3.5
Fading the depleted San Francisco 49ers here down the stretch has been a very profitable move. The 49ers are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. Yet here they are overvalued again laying 3.5 points on the road to the Dallas Cowboys. I'll gladly fade them again in this spot.
The 49ers have been hit so hard by injuries all season. And I think a big blow that is getting overlooked here is Deebo Samuel's injury. Samuel is their best playmaker on offense, and without him their offense has simply been vanilla. He returned recently and performed well with 11 receptions for 133 yards against the Rams three weeks ago, and six receptions for 73 yards against the Bills two weeks ago. But he left early against Washington last week and they struggled offensively with just 15 points.
While the 49ers have nothing but pride to play for the rest of the way, the Cowboys (4-9) are still alive in the pathetic NFC East. There is a good chance both the Giants and Washington lose this week as they are both nearly touchdown underdogs to the Browns and Seahawks, respectively. So this is a great opportunity for them to make up some more ground.
The Cowboys have gone 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall. They pulled the upset at Minnesota, nearly upset the Steelers, and they crushed the Bengals 30-7 last week. I like the momentum of this team right now and think they are flying way under the radar. I have the Cowboys lined as a favorite in this matchup given the motivation and the injury situation for the 49ers. So getting +3.5 at home here is an excellent value in a game the Cowboys should win outright.
The 49ers are 0-6 ATS vs. bad defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game this season. They are actually losing by 13.6 points per game in this spot. The Cowboys are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games as home underdogs. Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.
|12-19-20||Panthers +8 v. Packers||Top||16-24||Push||0||10 h 58 m||Show|
20* Panthers/Packers NFC No-Brainer on Carolina +8
This is the role I like backing the Carolina Panthers in. The Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as underdogs this season, while they are 0-3 ATS as a favorite this season. They have won four of those games as a dog outright. They also only lost to the Chiefs 31-33 as a 10-point dog. So they can hang with the Packers here.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Panthers, who have lost seven of their last eight straight up. But they continue to show up every week, and keep in mind that six of those seven losses came by only one score. So they have been competitive, and they will continue to fight hard for head coach Matt Rhule to close out the season. They are relishing this opportunity to face the No. 1 seed in the NFC in the Green Bay Packers and test themselves.
Conversely, it's a great time to 'sell high' on the Packers, who have won three striaght and five of their last six. They failed to cover as a 9.5-point favorite at Detroit last week, and they should not be favored by 8 points here over a Panthers team that just recently beat Detroit 20-0 for their last victory. This line should be under a touchdown, and we'll gladly take the 8 points with the Panthers.
Carolina is just 4-9 SU this season, but in seven of those losses the Panthers have had the ball late in the fourth quarter with a chance to win or send the game to overtime. "It's definitely a hump that we want to get over," Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater said. "We are capable of getting over it, but we have to execute when that situation comes. And that starts with me being better in those situations."
The Panthers will get a big boost with the return of WR D.J. Moore after he missed the Denver game last week due to COVID-19. Moore has 50 catches for 924 yards and four touchdowns this season. He has been Bridgewater's go-to guy and makes a big difference for this offense. I don't think his return is being factored into this line enough.
Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Green Bay) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against an opponent off two straight games where they committed one or fewer turnovers are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Green Bay) - off a divisional road win, a top team winning 75% or more of their games in the second half of the season are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
The Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games. As stated before, the Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as underdogs. The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a SU win. Roll with the Panthers Saturday.
|12-19-20||Stanford +7 v. UCLA||48-47||Win||100||53 h 46 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Stanford +7
The Stanford Cardinal opened 0-2 with tough losses to Oregon and Colorado and could have easily packed it in. Instead, they have gone 3-0 in their last three games overall with road wins over California, Washington and Oregon State and now have a ton of momentum. I like their mindset much more than that of UCLA heading into this game Saturday.
"For this team to come back after being on the road the last few weeks and be on a three-game winning streak, facing all kinds of odds," Stanford head coach David Shaw gushed last week. "We talk so much about character and recruiting the right guys. We push each other; we support each other."
The mindset of the Bruins is a disastrous one. They thought they were going to pull the upset over rival USC last week when they kicked a 43-yard field goal with 52 seconds to go to pull ahead 38-36. But after a long kickoff return, USC marched down quickly and scored the game-winning touchdown with 16 seconds left.
The Bruins looked gutted after the game, and I don't see how they could possibly get back up off the mat to give the kind of effort it's going to take to put Stanford away by more than a touchdown. It has been a season of close calls for the Bruins, who lost by 6 to Colorado and by 3 to Oregon as well. I think all these close losses will finally take their toll this week and the Bruins will fail to even show up.
The Cardinal are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 December games. The Bruins are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as favorites. The Cardinal are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Stanford is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five trips to UCLA. Shaw is 10-2 ATS off a win by 3 points or less as the coach of the Cardinal. Bet Stanford Saturday.
|12-19-20||Boise State v. San Jose State +7||20-34||Win||100||50 h 26 m||Show|
15* Boise/SJSU MWC Championship ANNIHILATOR on San Jose State +7
What more do the San Jose State Spartans have to do to get some respect? They are 6-0 this season and the best team in the Mountain West in my opinion. Yet they are still 7-point underdogs to the Boise State Broncos. They can use the underdog card here again as head coach Brent Brennan keeps pushing all the right buttons for this team.
The Spartans are 6-0 and there has been nothing fluky about it. They have outgained five of their six opponents this season. They just put up 506 total yards on a very good Nevada defense last week in a 30-20 win to punch their ticket into this MWC Championship Game. And they have the best defense in the conference, giving up just 17.5 points per game this season.
Boise State's 5-1 record is fools' gold. They got crushed against the best team they played in a 17-51 loss to BYU. They were outgained by 264 yards by the Cougars. In fact, they have been outgained in three of their six games this season. They were also outgained by Air Force and Colorado State. Plus, they only outgained Hawaii by 14 yards. To compare, San Jose State outgained both Air Force and Hawaii by a combined 137 yards in their two games against common opponents with Boise.
Last year, San Jose State nearly pulled the upset in a 42-52 loss to Boise State as a 16.5-point dog. And that was a much better Boise State team and a much worse SJSU team than the 2020 versions. The Spartans held a 24-17 halftime lead, a 28-23 edge in first downs and and 497-466 yard edge. They deserved to win that game. And now they want revenge for it a year later.
The Spartans are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games as underdogs. San Jose State is 6-0-2 ATS in its last eight games following a win. The Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win. Roll with San Jose State Saturday.
|12-19-20||Ole Miss -2 v. LSU||48-53||Loss||-111||70 h 7 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss -2
I love the spot for the Ole Miss Rebels Saturday. They are coming off three straight wins to get to get to 4-4 this season. And they would love to finish with a winning record this year by knocking off rival LSU. And now they have three weeks to get ready for the Tigers after last playing on November 28th. This extra practice time has been great for first-year head coach Lane Kiffin and this talented young team. It should pay off this week.
Meanwhile, LSU will be playing for a 5th consecutive week. They just pulled one of the biggest upsets of the season last week in a 37-34 win as a 23-point dog over Florida. It was a misleading final as LSU gave up 609 total yards to the Gators, but won the turnover battle 3-0. And now LSU somehow has to get motivated this week following three straight games against playoff contenders in Texas A&M, Alabama and Florida. I don't expect them to show up at all Saturday.
This is still a terrible LSU team that is 4-5 this season. They are getting too much respect from oddsmakers after that misleading win over Florida. And I agree with the line move here that now has Ole Miss the favorite after opening as the underdog. The Rebels should have no problem winning this game by a field goal or more. They have an elite offense averaging 39.8 points and 563.5 yards per game. And they should score at will on an LSU defense that gives up 33.4 points and 484.7 yards per game.
LSU is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games off an upset win as a road underdog. Ole Miss is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games after a game where it forced one or fewer turnovers. Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LSU) - in conference games, off a close road win by 3 points or less are 24-8 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take Ole Miss Saturday.
|12-19-20||Air Force -2.5 v. Army||Top||7-10||Loss||-110||70 h 37 m||Show|
20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Air Force -2.5
Air Force is undervalued right now due to a 3-2 record when they could easily be 5-0. The Falcons have outgained four of their five opponents this season. They were only outgained by 3 yards by San Jose State. They have played the two best teams in the MWC in Boise and SJSU, who are squaring off in the MWC Championship Game Saturday. And those are their only two losses.
They could have easily won both games. They outgained Boise State by 25 yards in a misleading loss to the Broncos. They rushed for 415 yards on Boise State's defense. And they now average 336 rushing yards per game and 5.9 per carry this season. They just do everything a little better than Army does. The Black Knights average 280 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry.
Army is coming off a massive 15-0 win over Navy last week, which is their biggest rival. They managed to win by 15 despite gaining just 162 total yards. Keep in mind Air Force blasted Navy 40-7 earlier this season, so that gives them a common opponent. Air Force has had two weeks off to get ready for Army, which will be a huge advantage. That's especially the case considering Army just played a really physical game against Navy last week and won't have much left in the tank.
Air Force is great against the run, giving up just 106 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry. Last year, Air Force rushed for 328 yards on Army while the Black Knights managed just 129 rushing yards. So the Falcons had nearly 200 more rushing yards than Army in their 17-13 victory. And I think we are getting the Falcons cheap here as only a 2.5-point favorite. Not only are they the better team, but the spot favors them as well.
Army's 8-2 record has come against an extremely soft schedule and it has them overvalued. The Falcons are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games. Air Force is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 trips to Army. Bet Air Force Saturday.
|12-19-20||Washington State v. Utah -10.5||28-45||Win||100||27 h 40 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah -10.5
This is a great ‘buy low’ spot on the Utah Utes after opening the season 2-2 SU under the best head coach in the conference in Kyle Whittingham. I have put my trust him to get this thing turned around. The two losses came to two of the best teams in the conference in USC and Washington.
Utah uncharacteristically gave both of those games away by committing five turnovers against USC and four more against Washington. Whittingham-coached teams don’t make those kinds of mistakes. And I think the slow start to the season has to do with all the Covid-19 issues with in the program that cut short their practice time. But now with four games under their belts, this team is getting sharper and sharper as the season goes on.
That showed two weeks ago when Utah stormed out to a 30-10 lead over Oregon State early in the 4th quarter. They did allow two garbage touchdowns late, and I think because that 30-24 final appears closer than it was, there was real value with the Utes last week against Colorado.
I cashed in Utah as an underdog as my 25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR last week in their 38-21 beat down of previously unbeaten Colorado. The Utes racked up 432 total yards in the snow and controlled the game for four quarters. QB Jake Bentley is playing great football, and they have now rushed for at least 192 yards in three straight games coming in. They have also committed just one turnover in their last two games combined.
Now Utah has a ton of momentum and should crush a rusty Washington State team that will be playing just their 2nd game since November 14th. The Cougars lost 29-43 to Oregon on November 14th and then 13-38 at USC on December 6th. Those are two of the best teams in the conference, but I believe this current version of Utah is every bit as good as those two teams. So they should be able to win by 14-plus points as well just like those two teams did.
Washington State is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games off a conference loss. The Cougars are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games off an ATS loss. Utah is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games off a conference win. Nick Rolovich is 4-14 ATS off a conference loss in all games he has coached. The Utes are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record. Take Utah Saturday.
|12-18-20||Ball State +13.5 v. Buffalo||Top||38-28||Win||100||29 h 16 m||Show|
20* Ball State/Buffalo MAC Championship No-Brainer on Ball State +13.5
The senior-laden Ball State Cardinals lost their opener to Miami Ohio and went on to win five straight to earn their trip to the MAC Championship Game. They have all the momentum right now and won't be intimidated one bit by the Buffalo Bills. This number has gotten out of control as the Cardinals shouldn't be catching nearly two touchdowns to the Bulls.
I've backed the Bulls several times already this season, so I am very high on them. But they have feasted on the easiest schedule of anyone in the MAC. They are in the weaker division and their wins have come against Akron, Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, Miami and Kent State.
Ball State plays in the tougher division. They have wins over Toledo, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan and Northern Illinois. So while Buffalo has the way better numbers this year, it's easy to see why when you factor in strength of schedule.
Buffalo averages 166 passing yards per game and 345 rushing yards per game. So the key to stopping the Bulls is stopping the run. And Ball State's strength defensively is stopping the run. They give up 148 rushing yards per game and only 3.9 per carry. They will be prepared to stop Buffalo here.
Ball State has one of the best offenses in the MAC at 33.7 points and 457.8 yards per game. They average 179 rushing yards and 279 passing yards per game with a balanced attack. Drew Plitt is arguably the best QB in the MAC with 66.3% completions, 1,674 yards and a 13-to-5 TD/INT ratio. The Cardinals are never going to be out of this game with Plitt at quarterback.
Ball State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. good offensive teams that average 450 or more yards per game. The Cardinals are 8-1 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning record. Ball State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as an underdog. The Bulls are 1-6 ATS in their last seven neutral site games. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet Ball State Friday.
|12-17-20||Chargers +3 v. Raiders||Top||30-27||Win||100||10 h 39 m||Show|
20* Chargers/Raiders AFC West No-Brainer on Los Angeles +3
There's going to be some value with the Chargers here down the stretch due to their 4-9 record. They finally got a win Sunday over the Falcons to give them some positive vibes moving forward. And now they want to end their 9-game losing streak against AFC West opponents and get revenge on the Raiders here Thursday night.
The Chargers are so much better than their 4-9 record would indicate. All three of their AFC West losses this season have come down to the final play. They lost on Harison Butker's 58-yard field goal against the Chiefs, lost on Drew Lock's TD to K.J. Hamler and lost to the Raiders when Justin Herbert's TD pass to Donald Parham was overturned on replay. Of the Charger's 20 losses over the past two seasons, 16 have been by one score. They are simply unlucky.
The numbers show the Chargers are the better team. They are averaging 383.0 yards per game on offense and giving up just 337.1 yards per game on defense this season, outgaining opponents by 45.9 yards per game. The Raiders average 369.2 yards per game on offense and give up 384.1 yards per game on defense, getting outgained by 14.9 yards per game.
The Chargers were the better team in their first meeting and should have beaten the Raiders, too. Los Angeles outgained Las Vegas 440 to 320 in that game, or by 120 yards. The Chargers have by far the superior defense in this matchup. They have now allowed 351 or fewer yards in eight consecutive games coming in.
The Raiders are playing awful right now. They are 1-3 SU in their last four games and would be on a four-game losing streak if not for the hail mary against the winless Jets to win 31-28. Their defense is allowing 37.5 points per game during this stretch, which led to the firing of defensive coordinator Paul Guenther.
But it's not going to make much of a difference here with all of the key pieces the Raiders are missing on defense. They are without several starters including DE Clelin Ferrell, LB Nicholas MOrrow, CB Trayvon Mullen and S Johnathan Abram. They have allowed over 200 rushing yards in consecutive games against the Jets and Colts. And they simply cannot get pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Justin Herbert is going to have a field day. He threw for 326 yards and two touchdowns in his first meeting with the Raiders. Austin Ekeler is back healthy at RB and should have a monster game as well.
Plays on underdogs or PK (LA Chargers) - after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of two straight games against an opponent that is off a loss by 10 points or more are 75-36 (67.6%) ATS since 1983. The Chargers are 32-15-4 ATS in their last 51 games as road underdogs. Bet the Chargers Thursday.
|12-14-20||Ravens v. Browns UNDER 46.5||Top||47-42||Loss||-110||9 h 56 m||Show|
20* Ravens/Browns ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 46.5
This will be the 2nd meeting between the Ravens and Browns this season. I always like to look to the UNDER in the 2nd meeting between teams in a division rivalry because they are so familiar with one another. They are able to make adjustments from the first meeting, and those adjustments almost always favor the defenses.
Weather will play a factor here as well, which is a big reason I'm on the UNDER. It's going to be 30 degrees with 15 to 25 MPH winds are kickoff tonight in Cleveland. And we've seen how wind and cold weather has affected the scoring conditions in these Cleveland home games recently.
Indeed, the UNDER is 3-0 in Cleveland's last three home games. They lost to the Raiders 6-16 for 22 combined points, beat the Texans 10-7 for 17 combined points and beat the Eagles 22-17 for 39 combined points. The UNDER is 3-0 in Baltimore's last three road games with combined scores of 34, 40 and 33 points as well.
These are two of the best rushing offenses in the NFL as well. The Ravens average 33 attempts for 169 yards per game on the ground, while the Browns average 32 attempts for 158 yards per game. So both teams are going to run the football a lot, especially with the winds, and that will keep the clock moving and make the game fly right by.
Both defenses have been above average at stopping the run, too. The Ravens give up 112 rushing yards per game, while the Browns allow just 104 rushing yards per game. In their first meeting, the Browns held the Ravens to 107 rushing yards on 30 attempts. Cleveland had 138 yards on 27 attempts but fell way behind early. This rematch should be much closer, which will have both teams sticking to their running games.
Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 42.5 to 49 points (Cleveland) - off an upsset win as an underdog, a top level team that wins 75% or more of their games are 70-29 (70.7%) since 1983. There's so much at stake here in terms of the playoff race that this game will be played close to the vest. Look for it to go well UNDER the number. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
|12-13-20||Steelers v. Bills -2||Top||15-26||Win||100||12 h 23 m||Show|
20* Steelers/Bills NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Buffalo -2
The Buffalo Bills came back from their bye week pissed off from their hail mary loss to the Cardinals. If not for that play, the Bills would be on a six-game winning streak. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall and playing their best football of the season. And now they are ready to prove they are Super Bowl contenders by knocking off the Steelers tonight.
The Bills came back from their bye and crushed the Chargers 27-17. Then they went on the road last week and made easy work of the 49ers in a 34-24 win as 2-point dogs. They racked up 449 total yards against a very good San Francisco defense. Josh Allen threw for 375 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in the win. What more does this guy have to do to be mentioned among the best quarterbacks in the NFL?
The Bills are remarkably healthy right now due to that bye week. And their defense is getting back to being the same dominant unit that it was a year ago. And that's what makes this team so scary now. They have an elite offense and an above average defense now that they are healthy in the secondary on that side of the ball, which hasn't been the case for much of the season.
While the Bills are healthy, injuries are mounting up for the Steelers. They are extremely thin at LB now without Bud Dupree and Devin Bush, plus Vince Williams and Robert Spillane are out for this game. CB Joe Haden is out and CB Steven Nelson is questionable, leaving the Steelers extremely thin in the secondary and at linebacker. The Bills should be able to do whatever they want to against the Steelers here.
It's also a terrible spot for the Steelers. They had their bye week stolen from them early in the season, and now they are a very tired team because of it. They will be playing their 3rd game in 12 days here after playing Baltimore last Wednesday and Washington on Monday. They blew a 14-0 lead over Washington as Alex Smith diced up their secondary, leading Washington to a 23-17 victory. And I always like fading teams after they've had a long winning streak come to an end. Pittsburgh's perfect season is no longer, and I think they could have a hangover effect here against the Bills.
Buffalo is 9-2 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. Pittsburgh is 0-5 ATS in its last five December games. The Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite. The spot, injuries and momentum all favor the Bills in this matchup tonight. Bet the Bills Sunday.
|12-13-20||Chiefs v. Dolphins +7.5||33-27||Win||100||91 h 21 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Dolphins +7.5
The Miami Dolphins are now 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. They have been the most profitable team in the NFL to back over the past two months. And it still feels like they are getting no respect here as 7.5-point home underdogs to the Kansas City Chiefs.
It hasn’t mattered whether it has been Ryan Fitzpatrick or Tua at quarterback. The Dolphins keep winning because they play team football and tremendous defense. They give up just 17.7 points per game this season and have forced at least one turnover in all 12 games. They just do everything fundamentally sound, which is the sign of a great head coach in Brian Flores.
The Chiefs continue to be overvalued week after week due to winning the Super Bowl last year and with an 11-1 record. They have now gone 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. Although they have won all four games SU, all four wins have come by 6 points or less. They have bene life and death with the Panthers, Raiders and Broncos during this stretch. And it’s not like any of those teams are any good.
It just feels like the Chiefs are going through the motions right now and just ready to get to the playoffs. They already have the AFC West locked up. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are still fighting to win the AFC East. They are just one game back of the Buffalo Bills for 1st place in their division. They are the team playing like their pants are on fire right now, not the Chiefs.
Kansas City is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games after gaining 400 or more total yards in three consecutive games. Miami is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games overall dating back to last season. The Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games. Miami is 13-3 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last two seasons. The Dolphins are 9-1 ATS off two or more consecutive unders over the last three years. Take the Dolphins Sunday.
|12-13-20||Vikings v. Bucs -6.5||Top||14-26||Win||100||91 h 21 m||Show|
25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Bucs -6.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers really needed a bye last week after going 12 straight weeks without one. Now they’ll be rejuvenated to bounce back from two straight losses to the Chiefs and Rams by 3 points each. And a bye will help a team like the Bucs more than most just because they have so many new faces this year on offense for Tom Brady to try and form a chemistry with.
Now the Bucs take on a Vikings team that was very fortunate to win their last two games against the lowly Panthers and Jaguars. They needed a last-second TD to beat the Panthers 28-27, and they needed overtime to beat the Jaguars 27-24. That’s a Jaguars team that has now lost 11 straight. And don’t forget they were upset by the Cowboys the week prior as a 7-point home favorite.
This is a Vikings defense that Tom Brady and company should light up. Minnesota gives up 27.4 points and 382.7 yards per game this season. This feels like a game Kirk Cousins is going to have to be a gun slinger to try and keep up, and that’s exactly the type of game that I like to fade the Vikings in because Cousins is terrible when he has to do it all.
The key to stopping the Vikings is stopping Dalvin Cook, and there’s no team in the NFL better equipped to do that than the Bucs. They lead the NFL in rushing defense, giving up just 74 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry. They also rank near the top of the league in total defense, allowing just 329.9 yards per game.
Plays on any team (Tampa Bay) - a good offensive team (5.4 to 5.8 YPP) against a team with a terrible defense (5.8 YPP or more), after being outgained by 100 or more total yards in their previous game are 36-7 (83.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bruce Arians is 13-4 ATS off a home loss as a head coach. Arians is also 21-9 ATS in December games as a head coach. Bet the Bucs Sunday.
|12-12-20||Wisconsin v. Iowa +2.5||Top||7-28||Win||100||19 h 47 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa +2.5
The Iowa Hawkeyes are making the most out of this COVID-shortened season. They could have easily packed it in after an 0-2 start with two tough losses by a combined 5 points. But they have gone the other way and made the most out of it. They have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS since, and now they want to make it six in a row against their rivals in the Wisconsin Badgers.
Conversely, Wisconsin has gone the other way. They opened 2-0 with blowout wins over bad Illinois and Michigan teams. But COVID has held them to only four games, and they have gone on to lose 7-17 to Northwestern as 7-point favorites and 6-14 to Indiana as 11.5-point favorites. It’s hard to see them showing up this week either as all of their dreams and preseason goals can no longer be achieved. They were expected to be one of the best teams in the conference.
That loss to Indiana is particularly concerning considering the Hoosiers were without their starting QB due to injury. And this Wisconsin offense is really struggling right now, scoring a combined 13 points and committing a total of seven turnovers the last two weeks. It’s just a lack of focus really.
Their job won’t get any easier against an Iowa defense that has now allowed 25 or fewer points in 21 consecutive games. The Hawkeyes have allowed 24 or fewer in every game this season, giving up just 17.3 points, 326.4 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play. And I believe this Iowa offense is the best unit that Wisconsin will have faced this season as well. The Hawkeyes average 32.3 points per game this season.
Paul Chryst is 0-7 ATS after outgaining his last three oponnents by 125 or more total yards in all games he has coached. The Badgers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a loss. Bet Iowa Saturday.
|12-12-20||Coastal Carolina v. Troy +14||42-38||Win||100||18 h 17 m||Show|
15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Troy +14
Coastal Carolina is coming off a massive win over BYU to improve to 10-0 for the first time in program history. The Chanticleers have an even bigger game against Louisiana on deck next week in the Sun Belt Championship Game. This is a sandwich spot for them here having to play Troy this week, while Louisiana gets a bye week to get ready for them.
Coastal Carolina has also gone 8-1-1 ATS this season. So bettors who have backed them have made a fortune. But now you are paying a tax to back the Chanticleers as 14-point road favorites here against Troy. And I think this sandwich spot makes it a great time to ‘sell high’ on them.
Troy will be ready for this one. The Trojans want revenge from a 35-36 loss to Coastal Carolina in which the Chanticleers scored and converted a 2-point conversion with 30 seconds left. Troy outgained Coastal 500-476 in that one and threw for 385 yards on them.
The Trojans bounced back from three straight losses with a 29-0 win at South Alabama last time out as 4-point favorites. QB Gunnar Watson, who has missed some time with injury this season and the Trojans have struggled without him, completed 82.9% of his passes for 297 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions against South Alabama. He is completing 70.5% on the season with 1,881 yards and a 15-to-6 TD/INT ratio. Watson means everything to their offense.
This is a 5-5 Troy team that has three losses by one score and four wins by 20 points or more. And I like their chances of staying within two scores of the Chanticleers given the spot. This is Troy’s Super Bowl, while Coastal Carolina basically played a Super Bowl against BYU last week and will be playing another next week. If they were going to slip up, this would be the spot against Troy.
Troy is a perfect 7-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 8 or more yards per attempt over the last three seasons. Roll with Troy Saturday.
|12-12-20||Utah +1 v. Colorado||Top||38-21||Win||100||15 h 22 m||Show|
25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah +1
This is a great ‘buy low’ spot on the Utah Utes after opening the season 1-2 SU under the best head coach in the conference in Kyle Whittingham. I trust him to get this thing turned around. The two losses came to two of the best teams in the conference in USC and Washington.
Utah uncharacteristically gave both of those games away by committing five turnovers against USC and four more against Washington. Whittingham-coached teams don’t make those kinds of mistakes. And I think the slow start to the season has to do with all the Covid-19 issues with in the program that cut short their practice time. But now with three games under their belts, this team should only get sharper as the season goes on.
That showed last week when Utah stormed out to a 30-10 lead over Oregon State early in the 4th quarter last week. They did allow two garbage touchdowns late, and I think because that 30-24 final appears closer than it was there is real value with the Utes this week going to Colorado.
It’s also a great time to ’sell high’ on the Buffaloes, who have been the surprise of the conference at 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season. They deserve some credit, but it’s worth noting they have played one of the easiest schedules in the conference with wins over Arizona, San Diego State, Stanford and UCLA. And all four wins came by 11 points or less, so they have been fortunate in close games. Their good fortune runs out this week against a Utah team that is simply better than them.
Utah is 7-1 SU in its last eight meetings with Colorado with blowout wins each of the last three seasons by 30, 23 and 21 points. If you would have told me Utah would be an underdog to Colorado coming into the season I would have laid my largest wager of the year on the Utes. And I’m certainly going to lay one of my largest wagers on Utah here in the underdog role. Bet Utah Saturday.
|12-12-20||Wake Forest +2.5 v. Louisville||Top||21-45||Loss||-103||15 h 17 m||Show|
20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Wake Forest +2.5
Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield made waves during the bye week when he talked with South Carolina about its coaching vacancy that was eventually filled by Oklahoma assistant Shane Beamer. The fact that Satterfield even explored a new job just two seasons into his tenure at Louisville rubbed Cardinals fans and players the wrong way.
I just don’t think the Cardinals are all that motivated to finish the season with a win here Saturday. They sit at just 3-7 on the season and have lost three of their last four coming in with their only win coming against lowly Syracuse. They’ve had several players opt out of playing the rest of the season as well.
Conversely, Wake Forest sits at 4-3 right now and wants to finish the season with a winning record. The Demon Deacons have been one of the biggest surprised in the conference. They are scoring 39.3 points per game on offense and giving up 29.7 points per game on defense.
None of the three losses were bad, either. They covered in a 24-point loss to Clemson to open the season. They only lost by 3 on the road to NC State and by 6 at North Carolina after blowout a double-digit lead late. The Demon Deacons are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall and finishing the season strong.
Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman has zero interceptions in 195 pass attempts this season. He has hit on 62.6% of his attempts while averaging a whopping 13.8 yards per completion. He had 429 yards and four touchdowns against UNC and they actually held a 45-24 lead in that contest.
Louisville is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 vs. good offensive teams that average 425 or more yards per game. The Cardinals are 6-22-1 ATS in their last 29 vs. a team with a winning record. Dave Clawson is a perfect 7-0 ATS after scoring 37 points or more in two straight games as a head coach. Take Wake Forest Saturday.
|12-12-20||Illinois +14 v. Northwestern||10-28||Loss||-110||15 h 17 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Illinois +14
Northwestern has beaten Illinois five straight seasons, the longest winning streak they have ever had in this rivalry with the Fighting Illini. Lovie Smith and company want the Land of Lincoln Trophy to return to Champaigne on Saturday.
“It’s been up north for too long,” Smith said. “Our guys will be pumped up and ready to go. We plan on playing our best game we’ve played all year.”
So you know the Fighting Illini are going to want it, and I think that will be enough to cover this 14-point spread. Of course, it helps that they now have Brandon Peters back as their starting quarterback. He is 7-6 SU in games in which he has started and finished at Illinois.
Two games ago, Peters led Illinois to a 41-23 upset win at Nebraska at 17-point underdogs. He also threw two touchdown passes early last week as the Fighting Illini jumped out to a 14-0 lead over Iowa, only to eventually fall 21-35. That was a quality performance against an Iowa team that has now won five in a row and is playing as well as anyone in the Big Ten.
I question how motivated Northwestern will be Saturday. The Wildcats clinched their second division total in three years on Saturday despite their game against Minnesota being canceled due to COVID-19. They will be playing in the Big Ten Championship Game next week. They will be more focused on keeping everyone healthy for that game than trying to blow out Illinois. And I’ll gladly back the more motivated Fighting Illini playing their final game of the season here.
Northwestern may be 5-1 this season, but four of those wins have come by 10 points or less. And they just were upset by a terrible Michigan State team 20-290 as 13.5-point favorites last time out. They just have trouble getting margin because their offense isn’t very good. They have scored 27 or fewer points in five straight games while averaging 21.2 points per game during this stretch.
Illinois is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 road games after a game where they committed zero turnovers. Northwestern is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 home games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 425 or more yards per game. The Fighting Illini are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. The Wildcats are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games as home favorites. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take Illinois Saturday.
|12-11-20||Nevada v. San Jose State UNDER 59.5||Top||20-30||Win||100||12 h 13 m||Show|
20* Nevada/San Jose State MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 59.5
Mountain West Championship implications are on the line tonight when the Nevada Wolf Pack (6-1) take on the San Jose State Spartans (5-0) at Sam Boyd Stadium in Nevada. Look for a defensive battle between these teams with what is at stake tonight.
Both Nevada and San Jose State have elite defenses. Nevada gives up 21.9 points, 361.1 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play this season. They have one of the most improved defenses in the country largely because of their huge, dominant defensive line. They give up just 121 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry.
San Jose State has been even better defensively. The Spartans give up 17.0 points, 347.2 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play this season. While their offense is solid, they only average 419.2 yards per game this season on that side of the ball. And Nevada’s offense gets more credit than it deserves, too. They have been held to 27 or fewer points in three of their last four games overall.
Nevada is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games off a home conference win. The Wolf Pack are 7-0 UNDER in their last seven games after gaining 325 or more passing yards last game. The UNDER is 36-17 in Wolf Pack last 53 games off an ATS win. The UNDER is 5-1 in San Jose State’s last six games overall. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|12-10-20||Patriots v. Rams -4.5||Top||3-24||Win||100||10 h 56 m||Show|
20* Patriots/Rams Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Los Angeles -4.5
The Los Angeles Rams have the best stats in the entire NFL this season. They are 8-4 SU & 7-5 ATS this season but the numbers on offense and defense tell the story. They are gaining 395.3 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play on offense while giving up just 291.6 yards per game and 4.9 per play on defense. They are outgaining their opponents by 103.4 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play this season, both the best numbers in the NFL.
The racked up 463 yards on the Cardinals last week and held them to just 232 yards, outgaining them by 231 yards. It was as an impressive performance as I’ve seen this season from them. And don’t forget they just beat the Bucs and Seahawks recently as well, so they have been playing great against some of the best teams in the NFL.
The Patriots aren’t one of those best teams. They are very fortunate to be 6-6 this season. Their last two wins over the Cardinals and Chargers were fraudulent final scores. They were outgained by 119 yards by the Cardinals and held to just 179 total yards, but found a way to win 20-17. And last week they only managed 291 total yards and only outgained the Chargers by 33 yards in their 45-0 win, which featured several big plays on special teams.
Cam Newton threw for just 84 yards and 4.0 YPA against the Cardinals and 69 yards and 3.0 YPA against the Chargers. They just can’t keep winning with him playing so poorly, especially not here in this huge step up in class against a motivated Rams team that is trying to win the NFC West. Adding to their motivation is their loss to the Patriots in the Super Bowl a few years back, which several players on this team clearly have not forgotten. They will be looking for revenge tonight.
“That’s just a loss,” DT Aaron Donald said. “I try to not thing about the loss. But you know, this is definitely a game that’s going to give you a little bit more push just for a little payback.”
With Newton struggling to throw the football, the Patriots have relied on their rushing attack, which ranks third in the NFL at 150.9 yards per game. Well, the Rams are equipped to stop them. They have the league’s third-best rushing defense, allowing just 93.1 yards per game on the ground. Los Angeles hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher all season long.
Sean McVay is a perfect 8-0 ATS after a dominant performance with 34-plus minutes of time of possession and 24 or more first downs last game as the coach of the Rams. The Patriots are 1-6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win. Bet the Rams Thursday.
|12-10-20||Pittsburgh v. Georgia Tech +7||34-20||Loss||-103||9 h 41 m||Show|
15* Pitt/Georgia Tech ACC ANNIHILATOR on Georgia Tech +7
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are much better than their 3-6 record would suggest. They are only getting outgained by 58.7 yards per game on the season and have been through the gauntlet recently with games against Clemson and Notre Dame. They have a lot of misleading box scores this season in which they lost the game but won the box score.
I think that has created some nice line value here on the Yellow Jackets late in the season catching 7 points at home to Pittsburgh. They outgained NC State by 15 yards in a 13-23 loss, were only outgained by 47 yards by Boston College in a 21-point loss, and outgained Syracuse by 96 yards in a loss. But they have been playing better in recent weeks, covering their last two games and really should have covered three in a row.
They covered against Notre Dame as a 20.5-point dog, beat Duke outright 56-33 as a 3-point dog, and then lost to NC State by 10 as a 7-point dog. But again, they gained 412 yards on the Wolfpack but only had 13 points to show for it. That’s hard to do. Look for them to put those good stats to use this week and hang a big number on this Pittsburgh defense.
The Panthers just had their best defensive lineman in Rashad Weaver (7.5 sacks) opt out of the rest of the season for personal reasons. They were already missing another of their top DL coming into the season in Jaylen Twyman for personal reasons. And now all of a sudden this Pitt defense isn’t very good.
That was on display last time out as they gave up 52 points and 591 total yards to Clemson in their 35-point loss. And it’s going to be hard for Pitt to get up for Georgia Tech after facing Clemson. I always like fading teams after they play Top 5 schools like Clemson.
Three of the last five meetings have been decided by 5 points or less. Pitt has only beaten Georgia Tech by more than 5 points once in the last seven meetings, and that was their 20-10 win last year against a rebuilding Georgia Tech team in Geoff Collins’ first season. The Yellow Jackets have been way more competitive here in his second season, and now they want to prove the strides they’ve made by beating Pitt here Thursday night.
Pittsburgh is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 vs. bad defensive teams that give up 37 or more points per game. The Panthers are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games following a game in which they committed four or more turnovers. Pitt is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games. The Yellow Jackets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss. Take Georgia Tech Thursday.
|12-08-20||Cowboys +8 v. Ravens||17-34||Loss||-110||11 h 47 m||Show|
15* Cowboys/Ravens FOX ANNIHILATOR on Dallas +8
The spot really favors the Dallas Cowboys tonight. They’ve had nearly two weeks to get ready for Baltimore after last playing Washington on Thanksgiving. Meanwhile, the Ravens come in on a short week after playing the Steelers on Wednesday last week. The Cowboys will be the fresher, more prepared team for this one.
The Ravens have lost a lot of practice time with many of the players that will be playing tonight as well due to Covid-19. They will get several players back for this game, including QB Lamar Jackson, but they won’t be sharp due to the lack of practice. And it’s not like they were playing very well with him anyway.
Indeed, the Ravens are 1-4 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall. They were upset by the Steelers, Patriots and Titans. They have been outgained in three of their last four games, getting outgained by a total of 256 yards in those four games combined. And they still are missing several key players for this one.
There’s clearly value with the Cowboys here tonight. They go from 3-point favorites over Washington to now 8-point dogs to Baltimore. That’s an 11-point adjustment. They have thrived in this big underdog role in recent weeks, too. They nearly beat Pittsburgh outright in a 19-24 loss as a 14-point dog three games back. And they did upset Minnesota 31-28 as a 7-point road dog two games ago.
Dallas is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite. Baltimore is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss. It’s asking a lot for the Ravens to win this game by more than a touchdown given the awful spot for them and the great one for Dallas tonight. Bet the Cowboys Tuesday.
|12-07-20||Washington Football Team +7 v. Steelers||Top||23-17||Win||100||68 h 49 m||Show|
20* Washington/Pittsburgh FOX No-Brainer on Washington +7
This is an awful spot for the Pittsburgh Steelers for a number of reasons. For starters, they will be playing on a short week after having to play the Ravens on Wednesday after the game was pushed back a couple different times due to Covid-19. The Steelers really haven’t even had a bye week as it was interrupted by the Titans earlier this year. So they have to be a tired team right now.
You are paying a tax to back the Steelers right now too because they are still undefeated at 11-0 on the season. And now the Steelers just lost starting LB Bud Dupree to a torn ACL against the Ravens. That’s an even bigger loss now considering they were already playing without fellow starting LB Devin Bush. Those two guys are the keys to their defense in the middle. RB James Connor, DE Stehpon Tuitt and C Maurkice Pouncey are all questionable this week due to Covid-19 as well.
Meanwhile, Washington comes in rested after playing last Thursday on Thanksgiving and will be fresh and ready to go. Washington will also be motivated as they sit atop the NFC East standings tied with the Giants, but they are in second place due to losing both head-to-head meetings. So they need wins more right now than the Giants do.
And they are playing like it. Washington is 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six games overall with all three losses coming by 3 points or less and by a combined 7 points. And the three wins all came in blowout fashion with a 25-3 win over Dallas, a 20-9 win over Cincinnati and another 41-16 win over Dallas.
Alex Smith has given the offense new life since taking over for an injury Kyle Allen four weeks ago. He has topped 300 yards passing twice, and in the other two games he didn’t Washington got its running game going with 164 yards against the Bengals and 182 more against Dallas. So this offense is showing some versatility.
But what really makes Washington a great bet week in and week out is a defense that is one of the most underrated in the NFL. They are giving up just 22.1 points and 309.5 yards per game. They have arguably the best defensive line in the NFL, which is going to be key here against a Steelers team that only likes to throw the football because they cannot run it. The Steelers only average 99 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry this season.
Ron Rivera is 45-21 ATS after playing his last game on the road in all games as a head coach. Mike Tomlin is 7-17 ATS after having won eight or more of their last 10 games as the coach of the Steelers. This is also a sandwich spot for the Steelers after beating their biggest rivals in the Ravens 19-14 last week and now having another huge game on deck at Buffalo in AFC action next week. This is definitely a game that Washington can win outright tonight given the favorable spot for them and the awful spot for Pittsburgh. Bet Washington Monday.
|12-06-20||Rams v. Cardinals +3||38-28||Loss||-120||43 h 55 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Arizona Cardinals +3
I lost with Arizona last week. And because they lost to the Patriots, there is even more value with them this week. They outgained the Patriots by 119 yards and held them to 179 yards but found a way to lose. Their kicker has not cost them two games this year as he missed a 45-yarder which allowed the Patriots to go down and kick the game-winning 50-yarder at the buzzer.
The Cardinals were also stopped twice from the 1-yard line right before halftime which turned out to be a 7-point swing. And they had a phantom late hit on Cam Newton on the final drive on a 3rd-and-13 that set the Patriots up in field goal range. They really deserved to win that game. But now that the Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, this is a great ‘buy low’ spot on them.
I don’t know how Jared Goff can be trusted as a road favorite here. The Rams had four turnovers again last week and just 308 total yards in a 20-23 upset loss to the 49ers. Goff goes hot and cold, but Kyler Murray shows up every week and I trust him more. The Cardinals want serious revenge from six straight losses to the Rams in this series as well.
Arizona is 30-15 ATS in its last 45 home games off a loss by 6 points or less. The Cardinals are 47-26 ATS in their last 73 home games off two or more consecutive losses. Arizona is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog. The Cardinals have just two losses in 11 games by more than 3 points this season, and both came on the road to the Panthers and Seahawks.
Plays on underdogs or PK (Arizona) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games in the second half of the season are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS since 1983. Roll with the Cardinals Sunday.
|12-06-20||Browns +5.5 v. Titans||Top||41-35||Win||100||40 h 50 m||Show|
25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Browns +5.5
The Tennessee Titans are overvalued after winning in upset fashion in back-to-back weeks over the Ravens and Colts. Now they are 5.5-point favorites here against a Cleveland Browns team with the same record (8-3) as them. It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Titans this week.
The Titans took advantage of a banged-up Colts team last week that was missing several key players on defense and offense due to either injury or Covid-19. So their 45-26 blowout win has them overvalued, and now they are asking to get margin here against the Browns.
The Titans are just 2-5 ATS as favorites this season. One of those covers was as a 6.5-point favorite over the Bears in a 7-point win. The other was as 3.5-point favorites over the Texans where they won by 6 in overtime. So they haven’t won a single game as a favorite by more than one score all season.
It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Browns, who are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. But they have gone 4-2 SU during this stretch. And they deserved to cover against the Jaguars last week but let them in the back door after a phantom roughing the passer penalty in a 27-25 win. They took the Jaguars for granted, but they won’t do the same this week. They’ll go back to feeling disrespected here and give their best effort.
The Browns get their best defensive player in Myles Garret back from Covid-19 this week after he missed the past few games. He’ll wreak havoc on a banged-up Titans offensive line that is starting backups at both tackle positions. And they are also missing key blocker and receiver Jonnu Smith at tight end. Guard Rodger Safford is also questionable at guard.
Stopping the run is the key to stopping the Titans and Derrick Henry. The Browns have done a good job of that this season in allowing 108 rushing yards per game. The Titans haven’t really stopped anyone. They are giving up 25.9 points and 384.1 yards per game on the season.
The Browns have one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL at 161 yards per game and 5.0 per carry. And they even played without Nick Chubb for several games, but he’s back healthy and doing his thing now alongside Kareem Hunt. The Titans give up 116 rushing yards per game. Tennessee is also 31st in pressure rate, so Baker Mayfield will have time to throw the ball and make plays through the air. Mayfield is averaging 9.7 yards per game in his three games against teams that rank in the Bottom 5 in pressure rate this season.
The Titans are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games off an upset win by 14 points or more as a road underdog. Tennessee is 19-35 ATS in its last 54 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. The underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Cleveland is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Browns Sunday.
|12-06-20||Saints v. Falcons +3||Top||21-16||Loss||-115||40 h 50 m||Show|
20* NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons +3
It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the New Orleans Saints this week. They have won eight straight games coming in and have covered four in a row as well. And they are coming off a 31-3 win over the Denver Broncos, who didn’t have a quarterback last week.
But this Saints offense hasn’t done much with Taysom Hill as their starter. They only managed 292 total yards against the Broncos last week. And the Falcons should be a lot better against him having just faced him two weeks ago in their 24-9 loss.
The Falcons got out to a 9-3 lead but had to settle for field goals on each of their first three scoring drives. The Saints took over in the second half and dominated. The Falcons have not forgotten, and they want revenge in a big way here. There’s a nice system on teams facing each other twice in three weeks. The team that lost the first meeting has gone 19-4 ATS in the last 23 in the second meeting.
The Falcons are still playing hard for Raheem Morris and have gone 4-2 with him as their interim coach with one of those a 1-point loss. They are coming off a 43-6 beat down of the Raiders last week that really showed their potential. And now they are expected to get Julio Jones back in the lineup this week from a hamstring injury after he was forced out of the Saints game last time.
The injury situation is not great for the Saints. They have key injuries at cornerback, defensive line and offensive line. They will be without CB Janoris Jenkins and could be without CB Patrick Robinson. DE Marcus Davenport is out, and T Terron Armstead is out with Covid-19. DT Sheldon Rankins is questionable as well. And obviously Hill is a downgrade from Brees at QB.
The Falcons are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as a home underdog. Atlanta is 4-0 ATS in its last four December games. Take the Falcons Sunday.
|12-05-20||Oregon State v. Utah -11||24-30||Loss||-110||52 h 31 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -11
This is a great ‘buy low’ spot on the Utah Utes after opening the season 0-2 SU under the best head coach in the conference in Kyle Whittingham. I trust him to get this thing turned around. The two losses have come to two of the best teams in the conference in USC and Washington.
Utah uncharacteristically gave both of those games away by committing five turnovers against USC and four more against Washington. Whittingham-coached teams don’t make those kinds of mistakes. And I think the slow start to the season has to do with all the Covid-19 issues with in the program that cut short their practice time. But now with two games under their belts, this team should only get sharper as the season goes on.
Look for Utah to put its best foot forward here against Oregon State. And it’s a great time to ‘sell high’ on the Beavers, who are coming off two straight wins and are 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. They just won their ‘Super Bowl’, beating arch rival Oregon outright 41-38 as a 13-point underdogs. And now this is a huge letdown spot for the Beavers this week.
Unfortunately for Oregon State, they lost starting QB Tristan Gebbia to a hamstring injury on the game-winning drive as he was trying to go in on a QB sneak. Now they will start backup Chance Nolan, and this is a big downgrade. They are going to have to rely even more on their running game and star RB Jermar Jefferson, who has rushed for 675 yards and seven touchdowns.
But this is a terrible matchup for Jefferson and this Oregon State offense. Utah has one of the best defensive lines in the country. They are giving up just 90 rushing yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry against USC and Washington. Their weakness has been against the pass, but that won’t be a factor here against backup QB Nolan.
Utah should really gets its offense going against an Oregon State defense that gives up 32.5 points and 442.8 yards per game this season. We saw that last year when Utah blasted Oregon State 52-7 and racked up 503 total yards int he victory. They held the Beavers to just 217 total yards, including only 48 rushing on 22 attempts. It will be more of the same in this 2020 meeting.
Utah is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in two straight games. The Utes are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 conference games. Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games. Roll with Utah Saturday.
|12-05-20||Stanford +12 v. Washington||31-26||Win||100||45 h 0 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Stanford +12
Stanford is just 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS this season. So this is a good ‘buy low’ opportunity on the Cardinal this week as they travel to take on Washington. They have played a very tough schedule which is the reason for their slow start.
They lost by 21 to Oregon in a game that was much closer than the final score. They went 0-for-4 on field goal attempts in that game and had two other drives in Oregon territory end with zero points. Plus, they were without QB Davis Mills and their star WR for that game due to Covid-19.
Then Mills returned and they lost by 3 to Colorado in their next game. That’s a Colorado team that is the surprise of the Pac-12 thus far at 3-0 with three quality wins. And last week they went on the road and beat California after a missed extra point by the Golden Bears in the final minutes. That win re-energized this team as you could tell how elated they were to get the victory.
Washington is overvalued due to being 3-0 this season, but are just 1-2 ATS. The Huskies have played the much softer schedule. They only beat Oregon State by 6, Arizona by 17 and Utah by 3 all at home. Those three teams are a combined 2-7 this season. They needed a 21-point second half comeback to beat Utah last week, 24-21, and that comeback effort will have taken a lot out of them. They were aided by four turnovers from the Utes.
Stanford owns Washington in going 5-2 SU in the last seven meetings. That includes a 23-13 upset win as 13.5-point underdogs last season. And Washington has a huge game on deck against Oregon next week. The Cardinal are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. This line should not be double-digits.
The Huskies are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a losing record. The Cardinal are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 December games. Washington is 14-28 ATS in its last 42 games after forcing four or more turnovers in its previous game. David Shaw is 11-3 ATS off a win by 6 points or less as the coach of the Cardinal. Take Stanford Saturday.
|12-05-20||Ball State +105 v. Central Michigan||Top||45-20||Win||105||43 h 1 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Ball State ML +105
The Ball State Cardinals are very close to being 4-0 this season. They deserved to win their opener against defending MAC champ Miami Ohio but lost 31-38. They had 478 total yards and outgained them by 59 yards. But they have reeled off three straight victories since, including an impressive 27-24 win at Toledo as a 10-point dog last week, which is one of the best wins in the MAC this season.
And that game against Toledo was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed. Ball State led 27-9 with under six minutes left before Toledo tacked on two garbage time touchdowns to make the final look closer. And I think because of that we are getting great value on Ball State as an underdog against Central Michigan, a team they are better than.
Ball State boasts a prolific offense that puts up 31.8 points, 469 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. They have arguably the best QB in the MAC in Drew Pitt, who is picking up right where he left off last season. He is completing 68.3% of his passes for 1,059 yards and six touchdowns this season. RB Caleb Huntley is also one of the best backs in the MAC with 437 rushing yards and six scores while averaging 5.5 per carry.
Central Michigan is very fortunate to be 3-1 this season. They won by 30-27 over Ohio and had to come back from a 20-6 deficit in the 4th quarter to beat a bad Eastern Michigan team last week. And they lost starting QB Daniel Richardson to injury late in that game and will now be down to a third-string QB in Ty Brock since backup David Moore is ineligible. That’s a bad look for the Chippewas.
Ball State wants revenge from a 44-45 loss to Central Michigan as a 1-point favorite last year. The Cardinals are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games as a road underdog of 7 points or less. Ball State is 47-23 ATS in its last 70 games as a road underdog, and 5-0 ATS in its last five games as an underdog overall. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings at Central Michigan. The road team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings. We don’t even need the points here. Bet Ball State on the Money Line Saturday.
|12-04-20||UL-Lafayette v. Appalachian State UNDER 51.5||Top||24-21||Win||100||27 h 25 m||Show|
20* Louisiana/App State ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 51.5
It’s expected to be 32 degrees Friday night with a 99% chance of rain and winds of 25 to 35 MPH in Boone, North Carolina. That’s where this game will be played inside Appalachian State’s home stadium. And the weather has me really liking this UNDER.
Not to mention, these teams are very familiar with one another after meeting in the Sun Belt Championship Game each of the past two seasons. In fact, they have played four times since 2018, with three of the four meetings seeing 49 or fewer combined points and the UNDER going 3-1 in those four meetings.
Both teams are going to have to run the football even more than they are accustomed to with the weather conditions. And both teams already love to run the ball anyway. Louisiana averages 38 rush attempts for 217 yards per game and 5.8 per carry. Appalachian State averages 46 rush attempts, 257 yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry.
Both teams have elite defenses as well. Louisiana gives up 21.9 points per game, 354.2 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play this season. Appalachian State gives up 18.0 points per game, 320.0 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.
Appalachian State is 21-7 UNDER in its last 28 games after outgaining its last opponents by 225 or more total yards. Louisiana is 8-1 UNDER vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game over the last two years. The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.
Plays on the UNDER on any team (Appalachian State) - a dominant team outgaining opponents by 100+ yards per game against a good team (+50-+100 YPG) after 7-plus games, after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game are 28-6 (82.4%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|12-03-20||Air Force -11 v. Utah State||Top||35-7||Win||100||10 h 27 m||Show|
20* Air Force/Utah State MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on Air Force -11
The Air Force Falcons should make easy work of the Utah State Aggies tonight. Air Force is just 2-2 and undervalued due to that .500 record in which they have played much better than their record would indicate.
For starters, the Falcons are outgaining opponents by 79.0 yards per game on the season. They are still an elite rushing team with 336 rushing yards per game and 5.8 yards per carry. And their defense has been very good in allowing just 18.3 points and 324.5 yards per game this season.
Utah State is one of the worst teams in all of college football. They are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS this season. They are scoring just 17.2 points per game and averaging 284.6 yards per game on offense. They are giving up 35.2 points and 490.2 yards per game on defense. They are getting outscored by 18.0 points per game and outgained by 205.6 yards per game.
Utah State is now getting too much respect after upsetting New Mexico 41-27 as 6.5-point dogs last week. That’s the same New Mexico team that Air Force beat 28-0. And keep in mind Air Force’s only two losses came against two of the best teams in the Mountain West in Boise State and SJSU. Air Force was only outgained by 3 yards by SJSU and actually put up 484 yards on Boise State and outgained them by 25 yards. Utah State lost 13-42 to Boise State and was outgained by 247 yards.
Utah State gives up 203 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry. They aren’t going to be able to slow down the Falcons’ triple-option attack. Air Force is 33-13 ATS in its last 46 road games after allowing 14 points or fewer last game. The Aggies are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games as underdogs, including 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as home dogs. The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet Air Force Thursday.
|12-02-20||Ravens v. Steelers -10||14-19||Loss||-110||4 h 5 m||Show|
15* Ravens/Steelers AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -10
The Baltimore Ravens will be one of the worst teams in the NFL for one game tonight with all they are missing due to Covid-19. And with the Steelers being the best team in the NFL to this point at 10-0 and chasing a perfect season, they should have no problem putting away the Ravens by double-digits today.
The Steelers already hate the Ravens, but that hatred will be even deeper today for the way the Ravens have messed with their schedule this season due to Covid-19. They lost a bye week because of it and want to make a statement here. And winning by margin hasn’t been a problem the last few weeks as they have won by 26 over Cincinnati and by 24 over Jacksonville. Baltimore is a team on Cincinnati and Jacksonville’s level right now with all they are missing.
The Ravens will be without QB Lamar Jackson, TE Mark Andrews, LB Matthew Judos, WR Willie Snead, LS Morgan Cox, S Geno Stone, G Matt Skura, DE Jihad Ward, G Patrick Mekari, LB Pernell McPhee, RB Mark Ingram, RB JK Dobbins DT Justin Madubuike, DT Brandon Williams, TE Nick Boyle, T Ronnie Stanley and DE Calais Campbell tonight. Almost all of those players played against the Steelers in their 24-28 loss in the first meeting.
The Steelers got good news on the injury front with WR JuJu Smith-Schuster and TE Vance McDonald both expected to play. They will be missing RB James Conner, but they haven’t been able to run the football all season, so that won’t be an issue. They have just been throwing on teams at will with Comeback Player of the Year candidate Ben Roethlisberger having one of his best seasons as a pro. And the Steelers have one of the top defenses in the NFL, giving up just 17.4 points per game this season.
Washed up Robert Griffin III will get the start at QB for the Ravens, and the Steelers will make life hell on him for four quarters. Pittsburgh is 9-1 ATS vs. awful passing defenses like Baltimore that allow 64% completions or worse over the last two seasons. The Ravens are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a SU loss. The Ravens weren’t even playing good when healthy, going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall. Take the Steelers Wednesday.
|11-30-20||Seahawks v. Eagles +5.5||Top||23-17||Loss||-105||57 h 43 m||Show|
20* Seahawks/Eagles ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia +5.5
We’re buying at the lowest possible point here on the Philadelphia Eagles. They are coming off back-to-back losses to the Giants and Browns and now are catching 5.5 points at home to the Seattle Seahawks. And now the Eagles are finally out of first place in the NFC East so they need to be playing with a sense of urgency this week. I just love the spot for them.
And the Eagles have played their best football at home this season. They have just one loss by more than 2 points in their five home games this season. They have gotten a lot healthier on offense in recent weeks, and their defense is still playing at a very high level.
Indeed, the Eagles are allowing just 342.7 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play this season. They have the far superior defense in this matchup. The Seahawks give up 28.7 points per game, 434.9 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play. That’s why it is tough to trust them to get margin because the back door is always open against them with their pathetic defense.
Seattle is 7-3 this season but five of those wins came by a single score and the other two were against the Falcons in Week 1 and the 49ers a few weeks back when they were an injury-ravaged team. The Seahawks are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three road games with losses to the Cardinals by 3, the Bills by 10 and the Rams by 7.
Philadelphia is 40-22 ATS in its last 62 home games after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three games coming in. Bet the Eagles Monday.
|11-29-20||49ers +7 v. Rams||Top||23-20||Win||100||29 h 33 m||Show|
20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on San Francisco 49ers +7
This is a great spot to ‘buy low’ on the San Francisco 49ers, who have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall. But those losses came against three of the best teams in the NFL in the Seahawks, Packers and Saints. And they were more competitive than the scores showed in all three. They actually outgained the Saints by 44 yards and the Seahawks by 1 yard, and they were only outgained by 68 yards by the Packers.
Now the 49ers come off their bye week, and they needed a bye more than anyone with all of their injuries. And they will be getting some key pieces back this week in WR Samuel, CB Sherman, RB Mostert and DT Kinlaw. And they already beat the Rams 24-16 as 2-point home underdogs in their first meeting this season. Now they are 7-point road dogs in the rematch, which is simply too high.
It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Rams after back-to-back wins and covers over the Seahawks and Bucs. Now the Rams will be on a short week here after winning in Tampa Bay on Monday Night Football. They are at a huge rest disadvantage here facing a 49ers team off their bye. And they are feeling fat and happy after beating both of those teams. This has letdown spot written all over it.
The 49ers are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take the 49ers Sunday.
|11-29-20||Chargers v. Bills OVER 52.5||Top||17-27||Loss||-110||25 h 28 m||Show|
25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Chargers/Bills OVER 52.5
This game has shootout written all over it between the Los Angeles Chargers and Buffalo Bills Sunday. These are two of the best offenses in the NFL, especially when it comes to throwing the football. They are the 2nd and 3rd passing offenses in the league. And the conditions will be prime for scoring in Buffalo for this time of year with 46 degrees and 10 MPH winds at kickoff forecasted.
This Buffalo offense is hitting on all cylinders right now. They are scoring 27.2 points per game on the season and are coming off 44 and 30-point efforts against the Seahawks and Cardinals, respectively. Now their offense should torch a Los Angeles Chargers defense that has allowed at least 28 points in seven consecutive games.
That includes 29 points to the Jaguars, 31 to the Broncos, 29 to the Dolphins and 28 to the Jets. Those are the 21st, 27th, 29th and 32nd offenses in the NFL this season, so they are giving up big points against even poor offenses. So you can imagine what the Bills are going to do to them, especially with the Chargers being without four key defenders in DE Ingram, CB Hayward, CB Harris and LB Nwosu. They allow 27.3 points per game on the season.
But the Chargers have the offense to make up for their poor defense. Justin Herbert is the Rookie of the Year right now with what he is doing in the passing game. He is guiding the Chargers to 26.0 points per game this season. He is completing 68% of his passes for 2,699 yards with a 22-to-6 TD/INT ratio this year. And there’s a good chance he gets back a huge weapon this week in RB Austin Ekeler.
The OVER is 7-0 in Chargers last seven games overall with combined scores of 69, 57, 68, 61, 57, 50 and 62 points. That’s an average of 60.5 combined points per game. This 52.5-point total isn’t nearly high enough today for these two games as we should see 60-plus combined points here. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|11-29-20||Cardinals -125 v. Patriots||17-20||Loss||-125||25 h 28 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Arizona Cardinals ML -125
I like this spot for the Arizona Cardinals. They have failed to cover the spread in each of their last three games even though they were competitive in all three, so this is a ‘buy low’ opportunity. All three games came against the Dolphins, Bills and Seahawks who are all playoff teams currently. Now they get extra rest after losing a tough one to the Seahawks last Thursday in what was a bad spot for them.
Now they face a New England Patriots team that just can’t keep any momentum going. The Patriots’ shot to make the playoffs went by the wayside last week as they were upset by the Houston Texans. Now I can’t see them playing with much passion here against the Cardinals this week sitting at 4-6 on the season and out of the playoff race.
Not to mention, the Patriots haven’t been playing good football for months. They are 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall with their only good performance coming in an upset win over Baltimore in a monsoon. And clearly the Ravens are struggling over the last month too, so that win doesn’t look as good now. Their other six games were all poor performances.
The Patriots don’t have much speed on defense, so they struggle against speedy teams like the Cardinals. That was evident against the speed of the Texans last week. And it will be again this week against Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins and company. Plus the weather is going to be perfect in New England, which favors the Cardinals. It’s supposed to be 50 degrees with only 6 MPH winds at kickoff.
The Patriots give up 6.4 yards per play defensively while the Cardinals give up just 5.7 yards per play. The Cardinals average 6.3 yards per play on offense while the Patriots only average 5.8 yards per play. Arizona is outgaining its opponents by 0.6 yards per play this season, while New England is getting outgained by 0.6 yards per play.
The Cardinals are simply better everywhere and should be at least favored by a field goal minimum here. Arizona is 9-3-2 ATS in its last 14 road games. The Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with the Cardinals Sunday.
|11-28-20||Nevada -7 v. Hawaii||21-24||Loss||-110||104 h 47 m||Show|
15* Nevada/Hawaii MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on Nevada -7
Nevada was a team I was very high on coming into the season and they have not let me down. They returned 17 starters and a ton of experience, a prolific offense and one of the most improved defenses in the country due to the size the Wolf Pack have accumulated on the defensive line.
The Wolf Pack are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season and showing they can contend for a Mountain West title. They are averaging 32.2 points and 460.6 yards per game on offense and giving up just 20.6 points and 312.8 yards per game on defense. They feature a high-octane passing attack with 69.9% completions, 364 yards per game and 8.3 yards per attempt.
They want revenge from their worst loss of the season last year, a 54-3 loss to Hawaii when they were 2-point favorites in a downpour. Weather will be perfect in Hawaii, and this is a Hawaii team now in rebuilding mode after losing head coach Nick Rolovich to Washington State.
Hawaii is just 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS this season. The Warriors’ only wins came against Fresno State in the opener and over New Mexico 39-33 as a 13-point favorite. That’s a New Mexico team that lost 28-0 to Air Force two weeks ago and then suffered an embarrassing 41-27 loss to Utah State as a 6-point favorite on Thursday.
Hawaii also lost 7-31 to Wyoming, 10-34 to San Diego State and 32-40 to Boise State. And keep in mind that loss to Boise was much worse than the final score showed. The Broncos led 40-17 entering the 4th quarter before the Warriors scored two touchdowns in garbage time and converted a plethora of 4th-down conversions in the process.
These teams already have three common opponents. Nevada is 3-0 against them and outscoring them by 5.0 points per game. Hawaii is 1-2 against them and getting outscored by 14.0 points per game. That’s a 19-point scoring differential, and it shows that Nevada can easily cover this 7-point spread Saturday night without really even trying.
Hawaii is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games after tailing in its last two games by 14 or more points at halftime. The Wolf Pack are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. The Rainbow Warriors are 11-27-1 ATS in their last 39 home games. The Wolf Pack are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. It’s revenge time here as the Wolf Pack improve to 6-0 this season with a blowout victory over the Rainbow Warriors. Take Nevada Saturday.
|11-28-20||UL-Lafayette v. UL-Monroe +28.5||Top||70-20||Loss||-105||96 h 47 m||Show|
20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Louisiana-Monroe +28.5
Louisiana-Lafayette already clinched its 3rd straight West Division title last time out with a 38-10 win over South Alabama. They don’t have much to play for the rest of the way. And they have COVID problems with 33 players in coronavirus protocol last week, causing their game against Central Arkansas to be cancelled.
Head coach Billy Napier also tested positive and hasn’t been with the team all week and won’t be with them until the game Saturday. His quotes are very telling. “The tough thing here is we don’t get to practice, and I’m not going to have the opportunity to spend time with family for Thanksgiving. I wish I could be with the guys during the week and all that getting ready, but I mean, it’s not happening. It’s fortunate that it worked out to where I can be there Saturday.”
The betting public wants nothing to do with this 0-8 Louisiana-Monroe team. So they are catching a boat load of points here because of their record. But six of their eight losses this season came by 25 points or less. They only exceptions were their 30-point loss to Army in the opener and their 33-point loss to Liberty, which are two very good teams.
Louisiana-Monroe only lost by 18 points to Appalachian State a few weeks back. The Mountaineers are the two-time defending Sun Belt champs, so that was a good performance. And speaking of Appalachian State, Louisiana has them on deck next week. They could easily be looking ahead to that game against a team that has beaten them each of the last two years in the Sun Belt title game. They want revenge on App State as that is their Super Bowl.
This game is Louisiana-Monroe’s Super Bowl against their biggest rivals in Louisiana-Lafaytte. They get up for this game every year, and that has shown in recent meetings. Six of the last seven meetings have been decided by 7 points or fewer. That includes last year when Monroe was a 20.5-point dog and only lost by a single point, 30-31.
I like the new QB for Louisiana-Monroe in Jeremy Hunt, who relieved ailing starter Colby Suits against Georgia State last time out. He threw for 339 yards and three touchdowns and clearly gave their offense a spark by leading the Warhawks to 34 points in that 18-point loss.
Louisiana is simply overvalued due to its 7-1 record. But five of those wins came by 10 points or fewer, and they haven’t beaten anyone by more than 28 points this season. The underdog is 16-3-1 ATS in the last 20 meetings. Bet Louisiana-Monroe Saturday.
|11-28-20||Georgia Southern v. Georgia State +107||24-30||Win||107||93 h 52 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Georgia State ML +107
Georgia State is one of my favorite teams to back because they just fly under the radar in the Sun Belt conference. They are 4-4 this season and nearly upset Appalachian State two weeks ago in a 13-17 loss as 18.5-point dogs. And last week they handled South Alabama 31-14 as 3.5-point favorites behind 556 yards of total offense.
Their offense is hitting on all cylinders right now and their defense just limited App State to 310 total yards and South Alabama to 324 total yards. They should not be underdogs to Georgia Southern this week in a game they are going to win outright.
Georgia Southern has to be getting tired playing for a 7th consecutive week here. After three straight home wins by 7 points or fewer, they finally met their match last week in a 27-28 loss to Army. And you know how physical Army is with their triple-option, so that game will have taken a lot out of Georgia Southern heading into this game with Georgia State.
Georgia Southern is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as a road favorite. The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win. Take Georgia State on the Money Line Saturday.
|11-28-20||Texas Tech +11 v. Oklahoma State||44-50||Win||100||93 h 52 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Texas Tech +11
I faded Oklahoma State last week with an easy win on Oklahoma -7 in Bedlam in a 41-13 blowout win over the Cowboys. I thought that would have exposed the Cowboys for the frauds they were, but here they are laying double-digits to Texas Tech this week. The value is clearly on the Red Raiders as the Cowboys are once again getting way too much respect from oddsmakers.
Oklahoma State’s offense has been terrible all season in averaging just 386.4 yards per game. Take away the 593 yards they had against Kansas and the numbers look really bad for them against all the other legitimate teams they have faced. They were held to 256 yards by Kansas State and then 246 yards by Oklahoma in their last two games. Now QB Spencer Sanders has a head injury and may not start, and backup Shane Illingworth is out with Covid-19. It’s just a bad look for the Cowboys offensively right now.
I think the Cowboys could suffer a hangover here from that deflating loss to Oklahoma, and Texas Tech is in a great spot coming in on two weeks’ rest following a last second win over Baylor two weeks ago. Their only blowout loss this season came against Oklahoma, and they beat West Virginia earlier this year and deserved to beat Texas in an overtime loss after they blew a 15-point lead in the final minutes.
Texas Tech simply has Oklahoma State’s number. The Red Raiders are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. They pulled two outright upsets each of the last two years. They won 45-35 as a 9-point dog last year and 41-17 as a 14.5-point dog in 2018. And in 2017 they only lost by 7 as a 10-point dog and by 1 in 2016 as a 10.5-point dog. And once again they are catching too many points here when they are in the better spot off a bye and with Oklahoma State off Bedlam. Roll with Texas Tech Saturday.
|11-28-20||Maryland +12 v. Indiana||Top||11-27||Loss||-110||93 h 48 m||Show|
25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Maryland +12
It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on Indiana this week. They are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS this season and now getting way too much respect from oddsmakers. And it’s a terrible sandwich spot for them coming off a tough 35-42 loss to Ohio State and with Wisconsin on deck next week. I think they suffer a hangover here from that loss to the Buckeyes and won’t be as motivated or focused as they need to be to put away Maryland by double-digits.
Maryland’s 3-43 loss to Northwestern in the opener has them extremely undervalued now. They have since gone on to pull off two straight luges upsets with a 45-44 win over Minnesota as a 17.5-point dog and a 35-19 win over Penn State as a 27.5-point dog.
Starting QB Tualia Tagovailoa is one of the top QB recruits in the country. After a stinker against Northwestern, he has been brilliant in his last two starts. He threw for 394 yards and three touchdowns against Minnesota before throwing for 282 yards and three more touchdowns against Penn State. He is also a dual-threat with 61 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground this season.
Each of the last four meetings in this series were decided by 6 points or fewer. And you know Maryland wants revenge from losing the last two by a combined 8 points. Plus it’s a great spot for the Terrapins here coming in rested after last playing on November 7th. And Indiana will be playing for a 6th consecutive week, and their tough early schedule will take its toll this week.
Indiana is 4-1 SU despite only outgaining its opponents by an average of 9.6 yards per game on the season. That stat alone shows how overvalued Indiana is right now. And it’s time to fade them this week as they suffer their first ATS loss of the season, and they’ll be fortunate to even win this game straight up. I definitely have some Maryland +360 on the money line and you should too. But we’ll take the points for some added insurance. Bet Maryland Saturday.
|11-27-20||Oregon v. Oregon State +14||Top||38-41||Win||100||76 h 19 m||Show|
20* Oregon/Oregon State Pac-12 No-Brainer on Oregon State +14
The Oregon Ducks are way overvalued after their 3-0 start that has them ranked as a Top 10 team in the country. They aren’t one of the 10 best teams in the country, and they are fortunate to be 3-0. Let’s just go game by game with them to see how fortunate they have been.
Stanford’s starting QB and top WR were out for the opener just before game time. And Stanford went 0-for-4 on field goals and had six drives in Oregon territory result in zero points in their 35-14 loss.
The next week Oregon fell behind 19-7 with 20 seconds left before half and somehow got a huge play and scored before intermission with three seconds left to make it 19-14. They also tacked on a TD in the final two minutes to win 43-29 and cover the 10.5-point spread even though they never deserved to cover.
Last week Oregon was extremely fortunate to beat UCLA 38-35 as an 18.5-point favorites. They gave up 462 total yards to the Bruins and were outgained by 40 yards in the win. They were +3 in turnovers and still only won by 3 points. It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Ducks.
The Oregon State Beavers improved big time last year under head coach Jonathan Smith, their former quarterback. They went from 2-10 in his first season to 5-7 last year and had three losses by 3 points or less. That’s how close they were to being an 8-4 team. And now Smith welcomes back 14 returning starters from last year’s squad and is in his third year with the program.
The Beavers have had a couple tough losses to open the season. They were upset 28-38 in the opener by Washington State, and then lost 21-27 at Washington as 13-point dogs. But they got on track last week with a 31-27 victory as 1-point dogs against California. And now they are excited to face off against their biggest rivals here in Oregon and try to hand them their first loss. And we have a lot of room to work with since the Beavers are catching 14 points.
Oregon only beat Oregon State 24-10 as a 21-point favorite last year. And that game was closer than the final score would indicate as the Beavers actually outgained the Ducks by 15 yards. This 2020 version of Oregon isn’t nearly as good as the one with Justin Herbert and company last year as they lost him and all five starters on the offensive line. Oregon State is every bit as good as it was last year.
Oregon State is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 6.25 or more yards per play. The Beavers are 7-0 ATS after playing a home game over the last two seasons. Oregon State is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as an underdog. Bet Oregon State Friday.
|11-27-20||Notre Dame v. North Carolina UNDER 67.5||31-17||Win||100||72 h 18 m||Show|
15* Notre Dame/UNC ACC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 67.5
This is an inflated total due to the numbers that North Carolina has been putting up this season. But this game will be played close to the vest as it’s a Top 25 matchup in the ACC. And my favorite reason for backing the UNDER is that both teams are coming off bye weeks so they’ve had two full weeks to get ready for one another. That is going to favor the defenses dramatically.
Notre Dame has the best defense that UNC will have faced this season. The Fighting Irish are only giving up 16.6 points and 304.1 yards per game. And the Fighting Irish have a great rushing attack that will allow them to move the ball on the ground and keep that UNC offense off the field. They average 234 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry. But it is worth noting the Fighting Irish will be without two starters on the offensive line, which can only hurt their offense and help this UNDER.
UNC also likes to run the football in average 234 rushing yards per game and 5.6 per carry. They have put up some big numbers against some really bad defenses this season, which is why this total has been inflated. They have gone OVER the total in four straight coming in, while Notre Dame has gone OVER the total in two straight. It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the UNDER in this matchup now.
Notre Dame is 12-3 UNDER in its last 15 games after gaining 525 or more yards per game in its last two games. UNC is 13-4 UNDER in its last 17 home games after allowing 325 or more passing yards last game. The UNDER is 24-9 in Fighting Irish last 33 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 63 or higher (UNC) after going over the total by more than 35 points in their previous game, a good team winning between 60% and 80% of their games on the season are 32-8 (80%) since 1992. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.
|11-27-20||Nebraska +14 v. Iowa||20-26||Win||100||70 h 48 m||Show|
15* Nebraska/Iowa Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska +14
It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Nebraska Cornhuskers this week. They are off to a 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS start, but they have played the toughest schedule in the Big Ten to this point. Two of their losses came on the road to Ohio State and Northwestern while they also beat Penn State. And last week’s upset loss to Illinois in which they were -5 in turnovers really has them undervalued this week.
It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on Iowa after the Hawkeyes went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. Those wins came against three of the worst teams in the Big Ten in Michigan State, Minnesota and Penn State. And all three wins were much closer than the scores would indicate as they outgained Michigan State by 119 yards, Minnesota by 34 yards and Penn State by 19 yards.
Nebraska will show up for this rivalry game with Iowa, just as it has the past two years. And Huskers have not forgotten about their 3-point losses to the Hawkeyes each of the past two seasons, and those were bad Nebraska teams and good Iowa teams. Iowa isn’t as good this year, and Nebraska is better than its 1-3 record in Scott Frost’s third season. Nebraska’s best effort here will be good enough to stay within this 14-point spread.
Kirk Ferentz is 0-6 ATS in home games after leading its last two games by 14 or more points at halftime as the coach of Iowa having never covered in this spot. Ferentz is also 20-33 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points as the coach of Iowa. The Huskers are 29-14 ATS in their last 43 games after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games. Roll with Nebraska Friday.
|11-26-20||Washington Football Team +3 v. Cowboys||Top||41-16||Win||100||52 h 42 m||Show|
20* Cowboys/Washington Thanksgiving Day FEAST on Washington +3
The Washington Football Team has quietly outgained five straight opponents by a combined a combined 549 yards, or by an average of 109.8 yards per game. They are playing their best football of the season with Alex Smith at quarterback. He has thrown for 881 yards in his last three games overall.
But what you really have to like about Washington is their defense, which has been one of the best units in the NFL this season. They give up just 22.7 points and 315.8 yards per game on the year. This defense limited the Cowboys to just 142 total yards in their first meeting, outgaining them by 255 yards in their 25-3 victory. I expect more of the same here. And there’s value with Washington considering the line was PK in the first meeting and now it’s +3.
The Cowboys are now getting too much respect from oddsmakers after covering their last two games against the Steelers as 14-point dogs and the Vikings as 7-point dogs. But they were fortunate to beat the Vikings last week because they were outgained by 54 yards and their pathetic defense still gave up 430 yards to the Vikings in the win.
And that’s where the advantage for Washington lies here is on the defensive side of the ball. The Cowboys give up 31.8 points and 386.4 yards per game this season. They can’t stop the run as they give up 154 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry. And Washington is going to be able to run the ball with Antonio Gibson, who had 430 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 4.5 per carry this season.
Washington is 20-5 ATS in its last 25 games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 6 or more yards per play in the second half of the season. Dallas is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games with a line of +3 to -3. The Cowboys are 1-7 ATS vs. NFC opponents this season. Dallas is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a favorite. The underdog is 28-13 ATS in the last 41 meetings. Bet Washington Thursday.
|11-26-20||Texans -2.5 v. Lions||41-25||Win||100||48 h 37 m||Show|
15* Texans/Lions Early Afternoon APPETIZER on Houston -2.5
The Houston Texans got off to a 1-6 start this season because they played the toughest schedule in the NFL up to that point. Their six losses were against the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers, Vikings, Titans and Packers. But they’ve started to play up to their potential now with the schedule easing up.
Indeed, the Texans are 2-1 SU in their last three games overall with their only loss coming on the road to the Browns 7-10 in terrible conditions as 4-point dogs. They beat the Jaguars on the road and last week topped the Patriots 27-20 at home. Deshaun Watson is having a monster season still and I trust him to get the job done here. Watson is completing 68.9% of his passes for 2,883 yards with a 20-to-5 TD/INT ratio this season, while also rushing for 269 yards and two scores.
The Detroit Lions have some terrible losses this season and are just 4-6 on the year. Their six losses have come by an average of 14.2 points per game. And three of their four wins have come by 3 points or less. So they are close to being a 1-9 football team. They sure looked the part last week when they were upset 20-0 on the road by the Carolina Panthers.
That was a Panthers team playing without Teddy Bridgewater. And the Lions just got worked. They managed just 185 yards of total offense in the loss against a Panthers defense that had given up 46 points to the Bucs the week prior. A big reason for the Lions’ struggles was all their injuries on offense, and it’s not going to get much better this week.
The Lions were without three of their best playmakers in Kenny Golloday, Danny Amendola and D’Andre Swift last week, and all three are questionable to return. Matthew Stafford didn’t take a single snap in practice last week because of a thumb injury, and he played with that injured thumb against the Panthers. And it’s not going to get much better for the Lions offensively on a short week this week.
Watson should be able to light up a Detroit defense that gives up 28.7 points and 397.4 yards per game this season. The Lions are 0-6 ATS after gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards last game over the last two seasons. Detroit is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games overall. The Lions are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their previous game. Take the Texans Thursday.
|11-23-20||Rams v. Bucs -3||Top||27-24||Loss||-130||155 h 39 m||Show|
25* MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Bucs -3
The Tampa Bay Bucs are clearly one of the best teams in the NFL. Their 38-3 loss to the Saints a couple weeks ago was an aberration. They’ve won four of their last five games overall with three of those wins coming by 23 points or more. They will handle the Rams on Monday Night Football.
Tom Brady came back motivated last week off that loss to the Saints and showed what he could do with all the weapons he has. They beat the Panthers 46-23 and it wasn’t even that close. They racked up 544 total yards and held the Panthers to 187, outgaining them by 357 yards. It was the most lopsided box score of the entire season in the NFL. And the Bucs didn’t have to punt once. Now Brady wants to redeem himself on the National TV stage here against the Rams. He leads a Bucs offense that is putting up 29.6 points per game this season.
The Bucs also have one of the best defenses in the NFL. They give up just 22.6 points and 300.3 yards per game. Now they’ll be facing an overrated Rams offense that cannot be trusted. The Rams only scored 23 points against the Seahawks last week in what was a perfect spot for them coming off their bye week. The Seahawks have been getting burnt defensively all season, and their defense actually looked pretty good in that game.
Goff isn’t very good when he is pressured, and the Bucs can get pressure. Not to mention Goff will likely be without LT Andrew Whitworth, who had to leave the game last week with a knee injury. And this is now a bad spot for the Rams having to make their 5th cross country trip of the season. No team in the NFL has flown more miles than the Rams this year. Los Angeles is 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS on the road this season with losses to the Bills, 49ers and Dolphins. Their only two road wins came against poor NFC East teams in Philadelphia and Washington.
The Rams are 23-47 ATS in their last 70 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Los Angels is 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 games as an underdog. Tampa Bay is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 games after scoring 35 or more points last game. Bet the Bucs Monday.
|11-22-20||Cowboys +7.5 v. Vikings||31-28||Win||100||119 h 28 m||Show|
15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Dallas Cowboys +7.5
This is a great ‘buy low’ spot on the Dallas Cowboys, who are just 2-7 SU & 1-8 ATS this season. They were either favored or a PK in six of their first seven games this season. But now they’ve been an underdog in their last two and a double-digit dog at that. And they should have covered both.
The Cowboys lost 9-23 to Philadelphia as 10-point dogs two games back and held the Eagles to just 222 total yards. But they had a fumble returned for a TD when they were only down 6 points late and driving for the winning score. And last time out they only lost 19-24 to the Steelers as 14-point dogs. They led most the way and deserved to beat the unbeaten Steelers.
Now the Cowboys are in a great spot this week coming off their bye week. They are ready to make a second half playoff run because when they look up at the NFC East standings they see that they are clearly right in the thick of the race despite their 2-7 record. That should have them rejuvenated coming off their bye. And they should be a lot healthier here too, plus they are expected to get Andy Dalton back at quarterback.
While it’s a great spot for the Cowboys, it’s a terrible one for the Vikings. They will be working on a short week here after a physical game against the Bears on Monday Night Football. And it’s a good ’sell high’ spot on the Vikings coming off three straight wins and covers. Now the Vikings are 7.5-point favorites here. They haven’t been more than a 4-point favorite in any other game this season, which shows they are now overvalued.
Dallas is 7-0 ATS vs. poor passing defenses that allow 260 or more passing yards per game after 8-plus games over the last three seasons. The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their previous game over the last three years. They are winning by 17.5 points per game in this spot. Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.
|11-22-20||Dolphins -3 v. Broncos||Top||13-20||Loss||-100||119 h 8 m||Show|
20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Dolphins -3
We keep backing the Miami Dolphins, and they keep on covering because oddsmakers and the betting public just don’t want to give them the respect they deserve. And I feel they are still being disrespected as only 3-point road favorites over the Broncos this week. The Dolphins are 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS this season and fighting for an AFC East title.
The Dolphins are underrated because they play great defense. They are only giving up 20.2 points per game this season. The offense has put up 28, 34 and 29 points in the three games started by Tua Tagovailoa. I don’t believe he’s a downgrade from Ryan Fitzpatrick, and the playbook actually gets bigger with Tua under center.
The Broncos are a mess right now. They have lost three of their last four and weren’t even competitive in any of the three losses. They were fortunate to come back from a 24-3 deficit to beat the Chargers in their only win. And keep in mind the Chargers were 3-point favorites over the Broncos in that game. The Dolphins are a lot better than the Chargers, and they proved that last week with their 29-21 win that wasn’t even as close as the final score. So they should be more than 3-point favorites here.
Justin Herbert had thrown for at least 250 yards in every game as a starter until he ran into this Dolphins defense. Herbert only went 20-of-32 for 187 yards against the Dolphins, and no Charger receiver managed even 40 receiving yards. This Miami defense is going to feast on Drew Lock or whoever starts for the Broncos this week.
Denver has committed at least one turnover in 16 consecutive games now. Lock threw four interceptions in their 12-37 road loss to the Las Vegas Raiders last week. And this Broncos defense has been pitiful, giving up at least 100 rushing yards in five of its last six, including 200-plus in two of the last three. The Dolphins should be able to do whatever they want offensively against this soft, banged up Broncos defense that allows 28.2 points per game this season.
Plays against any team (Denver) - with a poor turnover defensive forcing one or fewer turnovers per game, after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 48-22 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Dolphins are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall. Miami is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. Bet the Dolphins Sunday.
|11-22-20||Eagles +3.5 v. Browns||Top||17-22||Loss||-110||123 h 25 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Philadelphia Eagles +3.5
Miles Sanders, Alshon Jeffery, Dallas Goedert, Jalen Raegor, Jason Peters and Lane Johnson have all returned recently to bolster the Eagles’ offense. They didn’t all get in a full week of practice last week, but they should this week. And it should make all the difference as they bounce back from a bad loss to the Giants.
The Eagles were out of sync against the Giants, going just 1-for-12 on 3rd and 4th downs combined. They should be more in sync this week. And it was a great sign for them to rush for 156 yards on 23 attempts, averaging 6.8 yards per attempt. Which makes it even more puzzling hat they struggled on 3rd and 4th. But I expect them to get it worked out this week.
The Browns are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and are for some reason getting a lot of respect here as 3.5-point favorites. Remember, there’s really no home-field advantage in the NFL this year. So it’s basically suggesting the Browns are 3.5 points better on a neutral. I strongly believe the Eagles are the better team now that they are almost fully healthy.
This Cleveland offense has really struggled in scoring 10 or fewer points in three of its last four games overall. The loss of Odell Beckham Jr. is a big one because now teams can stack the box and try to stop their running game, which is their best asset. Baker Mayfield has been awful all season and won’t be able to make many plays against this Philadelphia defense that has been very good against the pass in allowing just 175.3 passing yards per game in their last four.
Plays on road games where the line is +3.5 to -3.5 (Philadelphia) - off a road loss, with a losing record on the season are 41-15 (73.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Browns are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a losing record. The Eagles are 2-1 ATS as an underdog this season with an upset win at San Francisco, a 2-point loss to Baltimore and a 9-point loss at Pittsburgh. Bet the Eagles Sunday.
|11-22-20||Falcons +5 v. Saints||9-24||Loss||-107||123 h 25 m||Show|
15* Falcons/Saints NFC South ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta +5
This is a great spot for the Atlanta Falcons. They are coming off their bye week and looking to make a playoff run in the second half of the season. They are one of the healthiest teams in the entire NFL and are starting to play up to their potential.
In fact, the Falcons are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. They are a Todd Gurley kneel down away from being 4-0 in the Raheem Morris era. Players have clearly responded well to him. They crushed the Vikings 40-23 on the road in his first game as head coach. Then that heartbreaking 22-23 home loss to the Lions, followed by a 25-17 win at Carolina and a 34-27 home win over Denver. And that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as they led 34-13 with under four minutes remaining.
This is a great time to ’sell high’ on the Saints off six straight wins. The first four all came by 6 points or fewer. Their 38-3 win over the Bucs two weeks ago has them overvalued. And their 27-13 win over the 49ers last week wasn’t nearly the blowout that the score would indicate. The Saints managed just 237 total yards against the 49ers but were +2 in turnovers. They have forced a combined seven turnovers the past two games. But now they’ll be up against a Falcons team that doesn’t turn the ball over. Atlanta has committed only eight turnovers in nine games this season.
Now the Saints will have to go on without Drew Brees. Say what you want about him getting older, but he is still one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. And now the Saints have to turn to Jameis Winston, who threw 30 interceptions last year with the Bucs and has always been a turnover machine. They may give Taysom Hill some snaps too, but either way this is a huge downgrade at quarterback, and it’s not being factored into the line enough. There’s tremendous value here on the Falcons catching 5 points off their bye and not having to face Brees.
The Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as road underdogs. Atlanta is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games overall. The Saints are only 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as home favorites. The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Take the Falcons Sunday.
|11-22-20||Steelers v. Jaguars +10||27-3||Loss||-110||123 h 24 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Jacksonville Jaguars +10
The Pittsburgh Steelers are the final unbeaten team in the NFL at 9-0 this season. With that perfect record comes expectations from the betting public and thus oddsmakers that are difficult to live up too. We saw that a few weeks ago when they barely survived in a 24-19 win over the lowly Cowboys. And after a blowout win over the Bengals last week, the Steelers are overvalued here against the Jaguars laying double-digits on the road.
This is the ultimate flat spot for the Steelers. They have the Ravens on deck Thursday night and are coming off that divisional win over the Bengals. This is a sandwich spot now and the Steelers won’t be 100% focused for it. They will clearly be looking ahead to that game against the Ravens.
The Jaguars have impressed me since returning from their bye week. Doug Marrone still has this team showing up every week and trying to beat everyone. And they’ll certainly be pumped to try to become the first team to take down the Steelers. They nearly upset the Packers last week in a 20-24 road loss as 14-point dogs. And they also nearly upset the Texans the week prior in a 25-27 loss as 6.5-point dogs.
The defense is playing better in holding those two elite offenses below 30 points. And their offense has gotten a boost from QB Jake Luton, who is expected to start for a third consecutive game here. Luton is completing 60.3% of his passes with two touchdowns and two interceptions while also rushing for a score. He should only get better with each game, and keep in mind he had great stats against the Texans and poor ones against the Packers because he was playing in a wind storm. It will be perfect weather in Jacksonville Sunday.
Plays against road favorites (Pittsburgh) - a good team outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game, after a win by 10 points or more are 53-20 (72.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Steelers are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games as road favorites of 7.5 to 14 points. Pittsburgh is 12-27-2 ATS in its last 41 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The underdog is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Take the Jaguars Sunday.
|11-21-20||Oklahoma State v. Oklahoma -7||Top||13-41||Win||100||48 h 28 m||Show|
20* Oklahoma State/Oklahoma ABC No-Brainer on Oklahoma -7
The Oklahoma Sooners deserve a lot of credit from rebounding from upset losses to Kansas State and Iowa State to open the Big 12 season. They could have easily packed it in. But now they find themselves right back in the Big 12 title run after going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. They have been undervalued from those losses ever since and remain undervalued in my eyes this week.
There has been nothing fluky about this run, either. Oklahoma beat Texas in overtime after blowing a 14-point lead in the final four minutes. That win propelled them to three straight blowout victory over TCU by 19, over Texas Tech by 34 and over Kansas by 53. The Sooners have now outgained six of their seven opponents this season with the only exception being the 3 yards they were outgained by Iowa State.
Oklahoma State is one of the most fraudulent teams in the country. They are 5-1 despite getting outgained in half of their games this season. They were outgained by both Tulsa and West Virginia in misleading wins. And last time out they were fortunate to beat Kansas State 20-18 despite getting outgained by 114 yards.
While the Cowboys have a good defense, they haven’t faced an offense as potent as this Oklahoma outfit. The Sooners are averaging 46.1 points and 515 yards per game this season behind the play of QB Spencer Rattler. He is by far the better Spencer in this matchup as Spencer Sanders is terrible for Oklahoma State and a turnover machine. The Cowboys managed just 256 total yards against Kansas State, which was their lowest total since 2014. Sanders won’t be able to match Rattler score for score, and he could be without his favorite target in Tylan Wallace, who is questionable.
Oklahoma is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Oklahoma State with four of those five wins coming by double-digits. And I think the Sooners should be double-digit favorites here. Finally, the Sooners are a perfect 9-0 SU & 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite of 7 points or less. It’s rare we get the opportunity to back them in this role and we’ll take advantage this weekend in Bedlam. Bet Oklahoma Saturday.
|11-21-20||Kansas State +11 v. Iowa State||0-45||Loss||-110||45 h 49 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas State +11
The Kansas State Wildcats will be ‘all in’ this week knowing they need a win to stay alive for the Big 12 title. They are 4-2 within the conference with impressive wins over Oklahoma and TCU and a narrow 18-20 loss to Oklahoma State. The Wildcats outgained the Cowboys by 114 yards in that game and deserved to win.
Now the Wildcats face an Iowa State team that they have owned over the last couple decades. Indeed, Kansas State is 11-1 SU in its last 12 meetings with Iowa State with its only loss coming 38-42 after a blowing a 17-point lead in the 4th quarter. So there’s no way the Wildcats should be double-digit dogs here against a team they simply own.
Iowa State is overvalued after a 5-1 start to the Big 12 conference season. The Cyclones have gone 3-1 in games decided by a TD or less in conference play, so they have had some good fortune. And their only two blowout wins came against the two worst teams in the Big 12 in Kansas and Texas Tech. They aren’t about to blow out Kansas State.
Iowa State is 0-6 ATS in home games after having won four or five of hitter last six games over the last three seasons. Kansas State is 6-0 ATS after allowing 3 points or less int he first half last game over the last three years. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Wildcats. Take Kansas State Saturday.
|11-21-20||San Diego State v. Nevada +1.5||Top||21-26||Win||100||44 h 20 m||Show|
20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Nevada +1.5
Nevada was a team I was very high on coming into the season and they have not let me down. They returned 17 starters and a ton of experience, a prolific offense and one of the most improved defenses in the country due to the size the Wolf Pack have accumulated on the defensive line.
The Wolf Pack are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this season and showing they can contend for a Mountain West title. They are averaging 33.8 points and 481.8 yards per game on offense and giving up just 20.5 points and 317.8 yards per game on defense. They feature a high-octane passing attack with 70.9% completions, 383 yards per game and 8.9 yards per attempt.
San Diego State moved on from Rocky Long and now had Brady Hoke back at head coach. It’s definitely a step down at the head coaching position. But the Aztecs are still solid this season as the cupboard wasn’t bare. The Aztecs are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS this season.
The problem is their three wins have not been impressive at all as they’ve come against UNLV, Utah State and Hawaii. The only decent team they faced was San Jose State, and they lost that game 17-28 as 10-point favorites. Nevada will be the best team they have faced yet.
Nevada has given San Diego State problems under Jay Norvell. The Wolf Pack are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two meetings with the Aztecs over the past two seasons with upset wins as 17.5-point dogs and 2-point dogs. And this is the best team Norvell has had yet and it’s not even close. There’s no way the Wolf Pack should be the underdogs in this game.
Norvell is 8-1 ATS in home games in the second half of the season as the coach of Nevada. The Wolf Pack are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as underdogs. Bet Nevada Saturday.
|11-21-20||Rice +2.5 v. North Texas||17-27||Loss||-108||20 h 45 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Rice +2.5
The Rice Owls were one of my surprise teams coming into the season with all they returned. They had 17 starters back for head coach Mike Bloomgren, who is molding this program into a mini Stanford after learning under David Shaw. And now he finally has the right players in place to be the physical running team that he wants to be.
After so many Covid issues, Rice finally got to play its first game of the season against Middle Tennessee on October 24th. They lost that game in overtime after committing three turnovers early and had to come from behind to force OT. Then the next week they came out and blasted Southern Miss 30-6 as a 1.5-point favorite to live up to their potential. Now the Owls have had three weeks to get ready for North Texas after more Covid cancelations.
North Texas has had problems of its own. It has only been able to play three games this season. The Mean Green lost 31-41 to Southern Miss, the same team that Rice beat by 26 giving them a common opponent. Then they lost by 28 to Charlotte before beating Middle Tennessee 52-35. Now they’ve had even more time off than Rice as their last game was played on October 17th. I think they have to be rusty here having to wait over a month for their next game.
Rice upset North Texas 20-14 as a 7-point home underdog last year. Now the Owls have 17 starters back from that team while the Mean Green only have 12 starters back. The Owls are 6-1 ATS int heir last seven games as road underdogs and 8-2 ATS in their last eight road games overall. The Mean Green are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games overall. North Texas is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games following a SU win. Roll with Rice Saturday.
|11-21-20||Appalachian State v. Coastal Carolina -4.5||23-34||Win||100||41 h 45 m||Show|
15* App State/Coastal Carolina ESPN 2 Early ANNIHILATOR on Coastal Carolina -4.5
The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have passed every test that has been put in front of them. They are 7-0 SU & 5-1-1 ATS this season and outscoring opponents by 21.6 points per game. They average 37.9 points and 442.3 yards per game offensively and give up just 16.3 points and 309.6 yards per game defensively. They are the cream of the crop in the Sun Belt.
They went on the road and beat Louisiana-Lafayette, which made the title game the last two seasons. And now the Chanticleers are ready to beat the defending Sun Belt champs in Appalachian State this weekend. Not to mention, they have two full weeks to get ready for Appalachian State, so they’ll have a rest and preparation advantage.
Appalachian State has been one of the most overrated teams in the country this year. They are on their 3rd head coach in three years. And while they are 6-1 SU, they are just 1-6 ATS failing to live up to expectations week after week. And they’re once again getting too much respect from oddsmakers this week.
Last week, Appalachian State was fortunate to beat Georgia State 17-13 as an 18.5-point favorite in comeback fashion. That’s the same Georgia State team that Coastal Carolina beat 51-0. And making matters worse for the Mountaineers is that QB Zac Thomas was forced to leave that game with a back injury and is questionable to play Saturday. So this is a beat up team that had to play last week while Coastal Carolina is coming off a bye.
Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Appalachian State) - an excellent offensive team that average 6.2 YPP or more against a team with an average defense that allows 4.8 to 5.6 YPP, in conference games are 35-13 (72.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.
The Mountaineers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall, including 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. The Chanticleers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall. Take Coastal Carolina Saturday.
|11-20-20||New Mexico v. Air Force -7.5||Top||0-28||Win||100||26 h 15 m||Show|
20* CFB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Air Force -7.5
The Air Force Falcons opened the season with an impressive 40-7 win over Navy. Then they had two weeks off due to Covid issues before two straight losses to two good teams in San Jose State and Boise State. And those games were closer than the final scores showed. They were only outgained by 3 yards by SJSU in a 6-17 loss and actually outgained Boise State by 25 yards in their 30-49 loss.
Air Force has its triple-option rolling again this season. The Falcons rushed for 415 yards on a good Boise State defense and have rushed for 330 yards per game and 5.9 per carry thus far this season. Now they’ve had three weeks to get ready for New Mexico and should hang a big number on a terrible New Mexico defense that gives up 34.7 points and 491.3 yards per game this season.
This is a New Mexico team in rebuilding mode with just nine returning starters for head coach Troy Calhoun. They have opened 0-3 this season and are getting too much respect from oddsmakers after covering the spread in their last two against Hawaii and Nevada. They lost 21-38 to San Jose State and gave up 579 yards in defeat. Air Force only gave up 294 total yards in its loss to SJSU earlier this season.
Air Force won by 22 and 18 points in its last two meetings with New Mexico over the last two seasons. The Lobos are 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games overall. New Mexico is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS win. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Plays against road teams (New Mexico) - off two covers but two SU losses as an underdog, with a losing record on the season are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Falcons roll tonight at home. Bet Air Force Friday.
|11-19-20||Cardinals v. Seahawks -3||Top||21-28||Win||100||59 h 45 m||Show|
20* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Seattle Seahawks -3
The Seattle Seahawks want revenge from blowing a 27-14 lead at Arizona and losing 34-37 (OT) a few weeks ago. And I think they are just pissed off in general after losing three of their last four. So we are going to get an inspired Seattle Seahawks team Thursday night, and that’s the type of team I want to be backing.
It’s easy to explain the losses here of late. It’s simple, the schedule has gotten harder, and all the losses have been on the road to playoff contenders in Arizona, Buffalo and the LA Rams. Now they return back home where they are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this season. And playing at home on a short week here will be a big advantage for them.
Russell Wilson rarely loses back-to-back games, let alone two straight like he has. Wilson is 32-9 SU in his career off a loss. You know he’s going to be locked in here, especially after the Seahawks committed a combined 10 turnovers in the three road losses, mostly out of his hand. Against, I like a motivated Wilson with a chip on his shoulder.
The Arizona Cardinals are pathetic defensively now that they’ve lost their top pass rusher in Chandler Jones to a biceps injury. The Cardinals have allowed 30 or more points in three straight games coming in. They gave up 572 yards to the Seahawks in that first meeting, and things should come easy for the Seahawks here.
I think this is also a great ‘buy low’ spot on Seattle after losing three of their last four. The lookahead line for this game last week was Seahawks -5.5, and after Seattle lost to the Rams while Arizona had a miracle win on a Hail Mary over Buffalo, this line has now come back at -3. Keep in mind the Seahawks were 3.5-point road favorites at Arizona in their first meeting, and now they are only 3-point home favorites in the rematch. That’s an easy way to tell there is some serious line value with the Seahawks.
Seattle’s defense is getting healthier and as a result, better. They held the Rams to 23 points last week. That was a Rams team coming off a bye with two weeks to prepare for this Seattle defense. So that was also a tough spot for the Seahawks. And it was a good spot for Arizona last week catching Buffalo off back-to-back huge home wins over the Seahawks and Patriots. And the Bills had to travel all the way out West and still played good enough to win that game.
Seattle is 51-32 ATS in its last 83 games off two or more consecutive losses. Pete Carroll is 20-10 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of Seattle. Carrolls is 12-2 ATS off two consecutive losses as the coach of the Seahawks. Seattle is 7-1-2 ATS in its last 10 Thursday games. The Seahawks are 32-15-4 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss. Bet the Seahawks Thursday.
|11-19-20||Tulane v. Tulsa -6||24-30||Push||0||10 h 57 m||Show|
15* Tulane/Tulsa AAC ANNIHILATOR on Tulsa -6
Tulsa has already proved it can hang with the best teams in the AAC this season by knocking off UCF as a 20.5-point road underdog, 34-26. And they played Oklahoma State, arguably the best team in the Big 12, down to the wire in a 7-16 loss as 23.5-point road underdogs. They also crushed South Florida 42-13 on the road before a shaky win against ECU that probably saw them overlooking the Pirates and looking ahead to last week’s game against SMU.
The Golden Hurricane started slow but finished fast, beating SMU 28-24 last week. They racked up 455 total yards while limiting a very good SMU offense to just 351, outgaining them by 104 yards. After getting revenge on the Mustangs, the revenge tour continues this week against Tulane. The Golden Hurricane have lost the last three meetings in this series and these seniors are desperate to beat the Green Wave for the first time.
Tulane is starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after winning three straight and going 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. But the schedule has gotten very easy as their last three games have been against Temple, ECU and Army. And off their physical, misleading win over Army in which they only outgained the Black Knights by 65 yards last week, I think this is a good time to fade them.
Tulane is a tired team right now as it will be playing for a 7th consecutive week and this is a short week to boot with this Thursday night game. No question Tulsa is going to be the fresher team after having a bye the week prior to SMU. And this will be just their 5th game for the entire season due to Covid issues. And the Golden Hurricane have remained remarkably healthy all season.
We have a couple common opponents here to compare these teams to that shows Tulsa is far and away the superior team. Both have played SMU and UCF. Tulsa beat UFC 34-26 and was only outgained by 17 yards. Tulane lost to UCF 34-51 and was outgained by 349 yards in what was an even bigger blowout than the score showed. Tulsa beat SMU 28-24 and outgained them by 104 yards. Tulane lost 34-37 to SMU and was outgained by 194 yards and lucky to go to OT. So Tulsa outgained SMU and UCF by a combined 87 yards, while Tulane was outgained by those two teams by a combined 543 yards. That’s over a 600-yard difference.
Tulane is 10-26 ATS in its last 36 road games off two or more consecutive ATS wins. The Green Wave are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs. The Golden Hurricane are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home meetings with Tulane. The favorite is 13-2 ATS in the last 15 meetings. Take Tulsa Thursday.
|11-18-20||Toledo v. Eastern Michigan +6.5||Top||45-28||Loss||-105||36 h 49 m||Show|
20* Toledo/Eastern Michigan MAC No-Brainer on Eastern Michigan +6.5
Eastern Michigan has played well this season to start but has come up on the short end of the stick both times. They lost 23-27 on the road as 5.5-point dogs to Kent State and 31-38 on the road to Ball State as 8-point dogs, covering the number in both games. Now they get to play their first home game of the season and will be highly motivated for a victory.
I really like what I’ve seen from new EMU QB Parker Hutchison. He is completing 59.4% of his passes for 491 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 88 yards and four scores. His dual-threat ability makes him tough to stop and I think he will have plenty of success against Toledo here.
I certainly have my questions about this Toledo team that went 6-6 last year and gave up 32.2 points and 476 yards per game defensively. They do have 14 starters back and should be improved, but head coach Jason Candle is declining. He took advantage of the players Matt Campbell recruited before him and went 9-4 and 11-3 in his first two seasons. But since he has had his players in place, the Rockets have gone just 7-6 and 6-6 the last two seasons.
I’m not willing to give Toledo much respect for its 38-3 win over Bowling Green as a 24-point favorite in the opener. The Rockets were 24-point favorites in that game, and the Falcons are clearly the worst team in the MAC. Then last week the Rockets blew a 10-point lead in the final three minutes and lost to Western Michigan. It will be very hard for them to get back up off the mat in time to face Eastern Michigan tonight.
Toledo is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games. Eastern Michigan is 24-7 ATS in its last 31 games as an underdog. The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Take Eastern Michigan Wednesday.
|11-17-20||Buffalo -30.5 v. Bowling Green||Top||42-17||Loss||-107||12 h 56 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo -30.5
The Buffalo Bulls should be the best team in the MAC this year. They went 8-5 last season and while they didn’t win the MAC, I would have had them favored over every team in the conference in the title game. They were 2nd in the MAC with a +138.0 yards per game differential and they only got better as the season went on.
Now head coach Lance Leipold has his best team yet with 15 returning starters, making the Bulls the 16th-most experienced team in the country. They also got in nine spring practices, which was the second-most in the MAC. That’s a huge advantage heading into this shortened MAC season.
The Bulls are loaded everywhere on offense with eight returning starters. They have two 1,000-yard rushers in Jaret Patterson (1,799 yards, 19 TD, 5.8/carry last year) and Kevin Marks (1,035, 8 TD, 4.6/carry). Each of their top three receivers are back as are their top two quarterbacks. They return seven starters defensively from a unit that gave up just 21.3 points per game last year. They are great at getting after opposing quarterbacks, recording 43 sacks last year.
Buffalo got off to a nice start this season with a 49-30 win as a closing 14.5-point favorite at Northern Illinois. Buffalo led 49-16 with five minutes left in the 4th quarter. Northern Illinois tacked on two garbage touchdowns in the final five minutes to make the score appear closer than it was. The Bulls averaged 7.0 yards per play offensively while giving up just 5.0 yards per play to the Huskies.
Then last week the Bulls really put it on Miami Ohio, the defending MAC champs. They won that game 42-10 and it was every bit the blowout that the final score would suggest. The Bulls racked up 558 yards on a good Miami defense and only gave up 258 yards, outgaining them by 300 yards.
Now Buffalo takes on the worst team in the MAC in Bowling Green. The Falcons lost 3-38 at Toledo in their opener and 24-62 at home to Kent State last week. That’s a 35-point loss to Toledo and a 38-point loss to Kent State. So now they have to face the best team in the MAC in Buffalo here and the Bulls should have no problem winning this game by 31-plus points to cover this number.
Bowling Green is 1-11 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons. The Bulls are 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall with all eight wins coming by 19 points or more. The Falcons are 5-21 ATS in their last 26 home games. Bet Buffalo Tuesday.
|11-16-20||Vikings v. Bears +3||Top||19-13||Loss||-105||68 h 52 m||Show|
20* Vikings/Bears ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Chicago +3
It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Chicago Bears, who are coming off three straight losses to three of the better teams in the NFL in the Rams, Saints and Titans. Two of those were on the road, and one was an overtime home loss to the Saints.
At the same time, it’s a great time to ‘sell high’ on the Vikings, who are coming off two straight wins and covers over the Packers and the Lions. They had a bye week coming into that game with the Packers and caught them by surprise, revenging an earlier loss. And they caught the Lions without Kenny Golloday, and with Matthew Stafford sitting out practice all week due to Covid-19 protocol. Stafford eventually was knocked out of the game with a concussion as well.
So we’re going to get a Bears team highly motivated to bounce back from three straight losses following their 5-1 start this season. And we’re going to get a fat and happy Vikings team that has rebounded from their 1-5 start with two straight wins. The Bears are still the better team in my opinion with the much better defense and should be favored here.
Minnesota gives up 29.3 points and 412.9 yards per game this season. Chicago only allows 21.1 points and 335.1 yards per game this year. The Vikings do have the better offense, but this is one of the stiffest tests they will have faced all season. They have faced one of the easiest schedules of opposing defenses of any team in the NFL thus far. The only legit defense they faced they lost 11-28 on the road to the Colts.
I foresee us getting the bad Kirk Cousins Monday night. The Bears have owned Cousins and the Vikings, going 4-0 SU in the last four meetings and a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. They have held the Vikings to an average of just 16.3 points per game in those six meetings, and the Vikings have failed to top 23 points once in this stretch.
The Vikings are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 Monday Night games, including 0-7 ATS in their last seven MNF road games. The Bears are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games as home underdogs. Chicago is 19-4 ATS in its last 23 games off three straight games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. The Bears are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. excellent rushing teams that average 5 or more yards per carry. Bet the Bears Monday.
|11-15-20||Bengals +8 v. Steelers||Top||10-36||Loss||-110||144 h 12 m||Show|
25* AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati Bengals +8
This is a great spot to back the Cincinnati Bengals this week. The Bengals are coming off their bye week, so they have two weeks to get ready for the Pittsburgh Steelers. They should put together one of their best performances of the season in this spot.
The Bengals are undervalued because of their 2-5-1 record this season. But they are 6-2 ATS with only one loss by more than 5 points all season. They are much better than their record would indicate. Joe Burrow is having a Rookie of the Year type season and always keeps his team in games. The guy is 19-6 ATS in his last 25 games as a starter dating back to his time at LSU.
The Steelers are overvalued due to being the last remaining unbeaten team at 8-0 this season. I faded them last week with success on the Cowboys +14 in a game that the Cowboys probably should have won outright in a 19-24 defeat. And I’m fading the Steelers again this week laying more than a touchdown to the rested and ready Bengals.
The Steelers have had Covid-19 issues this week that have forced some players to miss practice all week, including Big Ben. And Big Ben injured his knee against the Cowboys and won’t be 100% even if he does play. It would just be an added bonus if he sits out.
The Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Cincinnati is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games as a road underdog. The Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bet the Bengals Sunday.
|11-15-20||Chargers v. Dolphins -2.5||Top||21-29||Win||100||98 h 57 m||Show|
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Dolphins -2.5
I’ve been riding the Miami Dolphins all season and it has paid off. The Dolphins are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS this season and head coach Brian Flores is clearly in the discussion for Coach of the Year. They are coming off two straight upsets over the Rams and Cardinals and are now 3-1 against the NFC West this season, which has been tabbed as the best division in the NFL.
The Dolphins are underrated because they play great defense. They are only giving up 20.1 points per game this season. And their offense showed what it could do last week with Too Tagovailoa leading them to 34 points against the Cardinals. He completed 20 of 28 passes for 248 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions, while also rushing for 35 yards on seven attempts. I don’t believe he’s a downgrade from Ryan Fitzpatrick, and the playbook actually gets bigger with Tua under center.
I went into the week thinking the Dolphins could be getting too much respect off those two upset wins this week. But that’s simply not the case as they are only 2.5-point home favorites here against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers are just 2-6 this season and they just find ways to lose games.
They have blown leads of 16 points or more in four games this season, losing three of them. And last week they nearly completed a comeback of their own against the Raiders, only to have their touchdown on the final play of the game overturned with a booth review. I don’t know how much more heartbreak this team can take. And this might finally be the week where they just fail to show up.
What I also like about the Dolphins is that they are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL. The Chargers have some key losses along the offensive line, and now Joey Bosa is doubtful with a concussion. Their defense is so much better when they have Bosa and Ingram to rush the passer, but without Bosa that is a huge deal and Tua should be able to extend plays with his feet.
I just think this is a great value on a Dolphins team playing with a ton of confidence right now while also fighting for an AFC East Title with the Buffalo Bills. The Chargers have little to play for the rest of the way, and while I don’t expect them to pack it in, I think this is a bad spot for them off two straight heartbreaking defeats in the final seconds. And it’s a West Coast team having to travel East, which is always a tough situation.
The Chargers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. They are losing by 6.9 points per game in this spot. The Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record. These three trends combine for a 17-0 system backing Miami. Take the Dolphins Sunday.
|11-15-20||Eagles -3.5 v. Giants||17-27||Loss||-113||37 h 38 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia Eagles -3.5
The Philadelphia Eagles are in a great spot here Sunday. They are coming off their bye week and are now as healthy as they have been basically all season. They will have six key players back that they didn’t have in their first meeting with the Giants a few weeks ago.
Miles Sanders, Alshon Jeffery, Dallas Goedert, Jalen Raegor, Jason Peters and Lane Johnson all didn’t suit up against the Giants in their first meeting on October 22nd. And that game wasn’t nearly as close as the 21-22 final score would indicate. The Eagles racked up 422 total yards in that game and outgained the Giants by 117 yards. They are clearly the superior team with all these players back and off their bye.
Speaking of misleading finals, the Giants beat the Redskins 23-20 last week. But they won the turnover battle 5-0 and were still only able to win by a field goal. And Washington starting QB Kyle Allen was knocked out of the game in the first quarter, leaving the offense in the hands of the terrible Alex Smith. And even Smith went on to complete 24-of-32 passes for 325 yards against this soft New York defense.
The Eagles have one of the better defenses in the NFL, giving up 340.1 yards per game on the season. They have had just a mediocre offense up to this point, but with all these reinforcements coming back from injury along the offensive line and at the skill positions, the Eagles should easily have a Top 10 offense moving forward.
The Eagles simply own the Giants, going 8-0 SU in the last eight meetings. Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Giants are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 home games. New York is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games as a home underdog. The Eagles are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 trips to New York. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Roll with the Eagles Sunday.
|11-14-20||Oregon v. Washington State +10.5||43-29||Loss||-110||77 h 57 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington State +10.5
Oregon figures to take a big step back this year after a 12-2 season last year that resulted in a Pac-12 title. Losing QB Justin Herbert is a big blow when you consider how good he has looked with the Los Angeles Chargers in the NFL this season. They return just three starters on offense and lose all five starters along the offensive line. They were supposed to have eight starters back on defense, but they lost two starters in CB Thomas Graham and S Brady Breeze for personal reasons. So they wind up having just nine returning starters.
Oregon caught a huge break in their opener when Stanford QB Davis Mills and his top receiver were both ruled out on the day of the game. The Ducks won that game 35-14 as 11-point favorites. But Stanford went 0-for-4 on field goals and came up short on two other trips in Oregon territory. It was a closer game than the final score suggests. But since it wound up being a 21-point difference, I think Oregon is being overvalued this week as double-digit road favorites over Washington State.
Nick Rolovich guided Hawaii to a 10-win season last year and a trip to the Mountain West title game. He parlayed that incredible success into a job at Washington State this year. And he’s already off to an impressive start with an upset 38-28 road win at Oregon State as a 3-point dog in the opener. He stepped into a decent situation as the Cougars returned 14 starters this season.
QB Jaden De Laura followed Rolovich from Hawaii and had a great game against Oregon State, throwing for 227 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 43 yards and a score. And Washington State’s defense played great for three quarters as it was a 28-7 game late in the third quarter. But Oregon State dig tack on some garbage time scores to make the final score appear closer than it was. So again, I think we are getting extra value with Washington State because of that.
Washington State has won four of its last five meetings with Oregon outright with its only loss coming by two points. Better yet, the Cougars are a perfect 10-0 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Enough said. Take Washington State Saturday.
|11-14-20||SMU v. Tulsa -2.5||24-28||Win||100||32 h 25 m||Show|
15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulsa -2.5
The Tulsa Golden Hurricane have over two weeks to get ready for the SMU Mustangs after last playing East Carolina on Friday, October 30th. They have had this game circled all offseason after blowing a 30-9 lead in the 4th quarter to SMU last year, only to lose 37-43 in overtime. This is a game they desperately want.
Tulsa has already proved it can hang with the best teams in the AAC this season by knocking off UCF as a 20.5-point road underdog, 34-26. And they played Oklahoma State, arguably the best team in the Big 12, down to the wire in a 7-16 loss as 23.5-point road underdogs. They also crushed South Florida 42-13 on the road before a shaky win against ECU that probably saw them overlooking the Pirates and looking ahead to this game against SMU.
While the Golden Hurricane are rested and ready, the Mustangs are a tired team right now as this will be their 9th game already this season. It will only be the 5th game for Tulsa. And the Mustangs will be playing for a 5th consecutive week and their 9th game in 10 weeks.
Tulsa has a very good defense this season, holding opponents to 21.3 points per game, 373 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play. They are holding their opponents to 9.3 points per game, 74 yards per game and 0.9 yards per play less than their season averages. SMU is giving up 28.6 points per game, 419.8 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play this season.
And keep in mind that SMU has built up its stats against a soft schedule. Their seven wins have come against Texas State, North Texas, Stephen F. Austin, Memphis, Tulane, Navy and Temple. Their lone loss came in emphatic fashion by a final of 13-42 to Cincinnati. And they only beat Memphis and Tulane by 3 points each, which were their next two toughest games.
SMU is 0-6 ATS when the total is 63.5 to 70 over the last three seasons. The Mustangs are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games after covering the spread in five or six of their last seven games. SMU is 15-32 ATS in its last 47 games off a conference win by 10 points or more. The Golden Hurricane are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games following an ATS loss. Roll with Tulsa Saturday.
|11-14-20||Notre Dame v. Boston College +14||Top||45-31||Push||0||74 h 33 m||Show|
20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston College +14
The Boston College Eagles are live underdogs this week against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Just two weeks ago they only lost to Clemson by 6 as 26.5-point underdogs. So they showed they could play with a team like Clemson. And that effort will give them the confidence they need to compete with a team like Notre Dame.
This is a massive letdown spot for the Fighting Irish. They just beat Clemson in double-overtime last week in their biggest game of the season. That overtime win probably took a lot out of them. And now they are getting a lot of love being ranked as the No. 2 team in the country. This is exactly the spot that I love to fade the Fighting Irish.
Boston College will be ‘all in’ this week knowing they have a bye on deck next week. They would love nothing more than to upset rival Notre Dame. QB Phil Jurkovec is a former Notre Dame transfer who is out to prove that the Fighting Irish made the wrong decision going with Ian Book over him. Jurkovec is having a great season with 62.1% completions, over 2,000 passing yards and a 15-to-4 TD/INT ratio. He has also rushed for three scores on the ground.
The Eagles are 5-3 this season with two of their losses coming by 6 points or less to two of the better teams in the country in Clemson (28-34) and North Carolina (22-26). Their only blowout loss came to Virginia Tech, and that was a very misleading score as the Eagles lost the turnover battle 5-0.
Boston College is 22-7-1 ATS in its last 30 conference games, clearly being the most underrated team in the ACC over the last several years. The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as home underdogs. The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Bet Boston College Saturday.
|11-14-20||Georgia State +16 v. Appalachian State||13-17||Win||100||72 h 28 m||Show|
15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia State +16
Appalachian State has a huge game on deck next week against No. 15 Coastal Carolina, which is 7-0 and their top contender to win the Sun Belt. I think they’ll be looking ahead to that game, and they won’t be giving Georgia State the proper respect they deserve in this contest. That will allow Georgia State to stay within this massive number.
Keep in mind Georgia State was only a 4-point dog to Coastal Carolina just two weeks ago, and now they are 16-point dogs to Appalachian State. That’s some line value folks. And they bounced back with a 52-34 home win over Louisiana Monroe. Appalachian State also beat Louisiana Monroe by 18 points two weeks ago, 31-13. And they failed to cover against Texas State in a 21-point win as 21.5-point favorites last week.
Georgia State is a lot better than both of those squads and could easily be 5-1 instead of 3-3 this season with two of their losses coming to Louisiana 31-34 in OT and Arkansas State 52-59. They also upset ECU from the AAC and upset Troy on the road as well. The Panthers boast an offense that puts up 36.7 points per game this season behind a balanced attack that average 215 rushing yards and 198 passing yards per game.
The Mountaineers are now 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. They are also 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as favorites. This team has been overvalued all season and continues to be this week. And it’s a bad spot for Appalachian State with their game of the year on deck against Coastal Carolina next week. Take Georgia State Saturday.