|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|02-02-20||49ers +1.5 v. Chiefs||Top||20-31||Loss||-110||149 h 52 m||Show|
25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers +1.5
Defense and running game usually wins out in the Super Bowl. And I’ll gladly side with the better defense and running game against the flashy, high-powered offense of the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl 54.
The 49ers are simply the more complete team. The 49ers and Ravens were the only teams to rank in the Top 5 in total offense and total defense this season. The 49ers were 4th in total offense at 381.1 yards per game and 2nd in total defense at 281.8 yards per game in the regular season. They outgained their opponents by 100 yards per game on the season, which is the sign of a dominant team. And the 49ers are close to being 18-0 as their three losses all came on the final play of the game.
The 49ers were dominant in the first half of the season defensively before injuries took their toll. But they got back DE Dee Ford, LB Kwon Alexander and S Jacquisky Tartt late in the season and have had all three for the playoffs. And their defense has been absolutely dominant when they’ve had these three in the lineup.
The 49ers beat the Vikings 27-10 and held them to just 147 total yards and 7 first downs in the Divisional Round. Then they jumped out to a 27-0 lead on the Packers by halftime, so the stats that Green Bay racked up in garbage time in the 2nd half with the game already decided can be greatly discounted. The 49ers have given up just 252.5 yards per game in the playoffs and that even includes those garbage time yards for the Packers.
Kansas City has played two poor defenses in the playoffs in the Texans and Titans to help boost their offensive numbers. They scored 51 on the Texans and 35 on the Titans. But now this is a big step up in class here against the best defense they will have faced this season, and certainly the best pass rush that can negate what Mahomes can do.
The Chiefs played four solid defenses in a row prior to the playoffs. The Chargers held them to 346 total yards, while the Bears held them to 26 points and 350 total yards, the Broncos held them to 23 points and the Patriots held them to 23 points. I think it’s asking a lot for the Chiefs to top 24 points in this one against this elite 49ers defense.
While the Chiefs’ offense gets all the headlines, the 49ers have actually been the better offense during the regular season. They rank 2nd in the league in scoring offense at 29.9 points per game, only behind the Ravens. Kyle Shanahan is the best play-caller in the NFL, and he knows how to take advantage of the opposing team’s weaknesses defensively.
That’s exactly what he did against the Vikings and Packers. The 49ers rushed for 186 yards on the Vikings and 285 yards on the Packers. They didn’t need Jimmy G to do much, though he has shown he can when called upon considering he threw for 354 yards on the Saints in a 48-46 win late in the season.
The 49ers ranked 2nd in the NFL in rushing offense during the regular season at 144.1 yards per game, and the matchup with Kansas City’s run D is hugely in their favor. The Chiefs rank 26th against the run, giving up 128.2 yards per game this season. The Chiefs are even worse at 28th in allowing 4.9 yards per carry. The Ravens rushed for 203 yards on the Chiefs, which is the best rushing offense they have faced outside San Francisco.
So not only will the 49ers be able to run at will against the Chiefs, their defensive strength also matches up perfectly with Kansas City’s offensive strength. The 49ers rank 1st in the NFL against the pass, giving up just 169.2 yards per game. They are also 1st in yards per attempt allowed at 5.9 per attempt. Their secondary is tremendous, but a big part of that is their pass rush up front with the best front 4 in the NFL in Bosa, Ford, Thomas & Armstead.
The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog. San Francisco is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. Wrong team favored here. Bet the 49ers in Super Bowl 54.
Top 10 Favorite Prop Bets for Super Bowl 54
Jimmy G has 62 rushing yards on 46 attempts this season. He’s only averaging 3.9 rushing yards per game. And I believe there’s a good chance he’ll be kneeling on the ball to end the game.
#9 - Will Raheem Mostert score a TD (Yes -130)
Mostert has scored a touchdown in seven of his last eight games overall. Tevin Coleman dislocated his shoulder in the NFC Championship Game and is very questionable for the Super Bowl. Coleman gets a lot of goal line touches, which will now go to Mostert.
#8 - Dee Ford OVER 0.5 Sacks (-110)
Ford has at least one sack in seven of his 10 games played this season. He should be extra motivated to get after his former team and former QB in Mahomes.
#7 - Jimmy G UNDER 29.5 Pass Attempts (-150)
Jimmy G averages 27.9 pass attempts per game in his 18 games played this season. He has averaged just 13.5 attempts in two playoff games. Kyle Shanahan will continue trying to protect him as much as possible. I expect the 49ers to continue their run-heavy game plan because the Chiefs are terrible against the run.
#6 - 49ers LB Dre Greenlaw UNDER 5.5 Tackles (-110)
Greenlaw was a beast when Kwon Alexander wasn’t on the field this season. He even had the game-saving tackle at the goal line against the Seahawks in Week 17 that earned the 49ers the No. 1 seed. That play might be the biggest reason the 49ers made the Super Bowl. But in Weeks 1-9 when Alexander was on the field with him, Greenlaw didn’t once record more than 4 tackles. Alexander didn’t return until the playoffs, and Greenlaw has averaged 5 tackles per game in two playoff games
#5 - Patrick Mahomes Longest Rush UNDER 14.5 Yards (-125)
I’ve got some Mahomes rushing stats coming up that I’ll save for a future prop bet. But basically Mahomes’ rushing props are inflated due to a big outburst with 53 rushing yards including a crazy 27-yard TD run against the Titans last game. UNDER 14.5 yards for his longest carry here, but there’s another prop I like more that I’ll get to. (Check #2)
#4 - Will Jimmy G Complete his First Pass (Yes, -220)
We have to lay a little juice here but it’s worth it. Kyle Shanahan always likes to get Jimmy G an easy completion to start the game. He has made 26 starts under Shanahan. He has 21 completions on his first 26 attempts in those 26 games. That’s an 81% completion percentage. Basically four out of every five games he completes his first pass, so that justifies laying the -220.
#3 - Patrick Mahomes UNDER 305.5 Passing Yards (+100)
Again, I believe Mahomes props in general to be inflated because he is the biggest star in this game. And the numbers bear it out, too. Mahomes has thrown for fewer than 300 yards in six of his last eight games. He is averaging just 252.2 PYPG in his last eight games. And the 49ers have the #1 ranked pass defense in the NFL, giving up just 169.2 passing yards per game.
#2 - Patrick Mahomes UNDER 32.5 Rushing Yards (+100)
As stated before, Mahomes rushing props inflated due to his last game against TItans. The Titans and Texans both play a lot of man-to-man defense, so Mahomes was able to use his legs more. The 49ers play almost exclusively zone defense. That means defenders have their eyes in the backfield and can come up and stop the run a lot easier than teams who are in man-to-man with their back turned to the QB. SF did allow the 3rd-most QB rushing yards this season. But they also faced Russell Wilson twice, Kyler Murray twice & Lamar Jackson. Mahomes has 35 career games under his belt. He has only topped 28 rushing yards 7 times in those 35 games. That’s a 20% success rate if the over/under were only 28.5 yards. But it’s 32.5, and I believe there’s a ton of value with the UNDER.
#1 - 49ers 1st Quarter +0.5 (-155)
This prop means that if the 49ers are tied or winning at the end of the first quarter, you win your bet. There’s obviously a very good chance it’s tied, so laying only -155 I think is worth the price. The 49ers were 4th in the NFL with a +2.6 PPG differential in the 1st quarter this season, so they are fast starters. The Chiefs have actually been outscored in the 1st quarter on the season, so they are not fast starters. And we’ve seen that in the playoffs. They trailed the Texans 24-0 and the Titans 17-7 before rallying in both games.
|01-19-20||Packers v. 49ers -7||Top||20-37||Win||100||149 h 53 m||Show|
20* Packers/49ers NFC No-Brainer on San Francisco -7
I’ve been riding the San Francisco 49ers all season after picking up on the fact that they are the best team in the NFL. No team has put up better numbers on both sides of the ball than they have, and the numbers haven’t lied. They are 14-3 this season with all three losses coming on the final play of the game. That’s how close they are to being 17-0.
The reason I say the 49ers are the best team in the NFL is because they are the only team that is Top 5 in total offense and Top 5 in total defense. The 49ers were 4th in the regular season in total offense at 381.1 yards per game while also scoring 29.9 points per game, which ranked 2nd in the NFL. The 49ers were 2nd in the NFL in total defense during the regular season, giving up 281.8 yards per game and only 19.4 points per game.
The 49ers have been an immovable object when Nick Bosa, Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander have been on the field at the same time defensively. Opposing quarterbacks had a QBR of 3 during the regular season in this situation. And the 49ers returned Ford, Alexander and also Jaquisky Tartt last week from injuries. That trio played a big role in limiting the Vikings to just 10 points, 7 first downs and 147 total yards. They are back to being the best defense in the NFL when healthy now, which is a scary proposition for the Packers.
After all, the 49ers already showed what they could do against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers when their defense was healthy in a 37-8 home win earlier this season. They held the Packers to just 8 points and 198 total yards. They held Rodgers to just 3.2 yards per attempt passing as he went 20-of-33 for 104 yards. No team has shut down Rodgers like the 49ers did in that game.
Both teams are 14-3, but there’s a huge difference between them statistically. The 49ers outgained their opponents by nearly 100 yards per game during the regular season. The Packers were 18th in total offense at 345.5 yards per game and 18th in total defense at 352.6 yards per game. They were actually outgained by 7.1 yards per game during the regular season, which is the sign of a below .500 team rather than one that is 14-3. They were simply fortunate in close games all season as they went a ridiculous 9-1 in one-score games. Their luck runs out this week as this game won’t be close.
I expect the 49ers to shut down the Packers, and I also expect Jimmy G and the 49ers rushing attack to do whatever they want against this Packers' defense. The Packers are in trouble defensively because they can’t stop the run. They ranked 24th in the NFL in giving up 4.7 rushing yards per carry in the regular season. The 49ers had the 2nd-best rushing attack in the league at 144.1 yards per game. Green Bay has also allowed touchdowns in the red zone on 83% of opponents’ opportunities the last three weeks. Seattle scored all three times it got into the red zone last week.
The 49ers are 14-3 but nine of those wins have come by 9 points or more, so they have hard no problem getting margin this season. They are outscoring opponents by 13.2 points per game at home this year. The Packers have been outgained by 34.1 yards per game on the road this season and are averaging just 21.4 points and 305.1 yards per game on the highway. They won’t be able to keep up with the 49ers, who are better across the board on both sides of the football.
Plays against road underdogs or PK (Green Bay) - a hot team having won eight or more of their last 10 games are 40-17 (70.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The 49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. The fraudulent Packers will be exposed by the best team in the NFL for a second time this season. Bet the 49ers Sunday.
Note: I also recommend doing a teaser to get both the 49ers and Chiefs down to -1 or better. A 6.5-point teaser at -130 odds should do the trick. And also make this teaser a bigger bet than your individual bets on these two games. It's one of my favorite teasers of the entire season!
|01-19-20||Titans v. Chiefs -7||24-35||Win||100||88 h 34 m||Show|
15* Titans/Chiefs AFC ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -7
I’ve been riding the Tennessee Titans since Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback. They’ve made me a lot of money down the stretch, including in each of their first two playoff games with upset wins over the Patriots and Ravens. It pains me to go against them now, but I have to do it because I see this game playing out totally differently. The Chiefs are going to roll in the AFC Championship.
The Chiefs have the best offense in the NFL when healthy and it’s not really even close. That showed last week when they erased a 24-0 deficit in one half and took a 28-24 lead by halftime against the Texans. They went on to win 51-31 as double-digit favorites. Now they are only laying 7 points here to Tennessee compared to the 10 they were laying against Houston. So I think there’s some value here.
Tennessee because the first team in NFL history to get outgained by 230-plus yards and win a playoff game last week. They gave up 530 yards to the Ravens and only gained 300 last week, yet still managed to win 28-12. That is a complete fluke. Baltimore lsat the turnover battle 3-0 and was stopped on 4th down four times. That’s essentially seven turnovers. It’s one of the most misleading finals in the history of the NFL.
Speaking of misleading, the Titans also beat the Chiefs 35-32 at home in their first meeting this season despite not having any business winning that game either. The Chiefs had a 530 to 371 yard edge and a 28-19 edge in first downs in that game. And it was the first game back for Patrick Mahomes from injury. If the Chiefs approach anywhere near 530 yards again, they are going to win in a blowout.
Derrick Henry is a beast and certainly a concern. But I have a good feeling the Chiefs are going to be leading the whole way in this game and make Henry a non-factor. This game is going to come down to whether or not Ryan Tannehill can match Mahomes score for score. And while I’ve praised Tannehill a lot this season and think he’s underrated, not even he can match Mahomes score for score. Deshaun Watson couldn’t do it last week, and Tannehill won’t be able to do it this week.
The Chiefs are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall, winning by an average of 17 points per game and covering by an average of 10 points per game. The tough spot for the Titans won’t allow them to hang around, either. They will be playing their 4th straight road game. The last five teams to be playing their 4th straight road game in the NFL have gone 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS. And they just played two physical wars against the Patriots and Ravens the last two weeks, which will have taken a lot out of them.
Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Tennessee) - off two consecutive road wins, winning between 60% & 75% of their games on the season are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS since 1983. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Kansas City) - after playing a home game against an opponent that’s off a two-game road trip are 25-9 (73.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Titans are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games with a total of 49.5 or higher. Take the Chiefs Sunday.
Note: I also recommend doing a teaser to get both the 49ers and Chiefs down to -1 or better. A 6.5-point teaser at -130 odds should do the trick. And also make this teaser a bigger bet than your individual bets on these two games. It's one of my favorite teasers of the entire season!
|01-13-20||Clemson v. LSU -5.5||Top||25-42||Win||100||79 h 59 m||Show|
20* Clemson/LSU National Championship No-Brainer on LSU -5.5
I’ve never seen a more impressive team than LSU in college football history. I’ve been riding them all season and I’m not about to back off now. I fully expect LSU to make easy work of Clemson here.
Joe Burrow won the Heisman and is as good as any quarterback in college football that I can remember. He threw seven touchdowns in the first half against Oklahoma. He is in charge of a record-breaking LSU offense that averages 48.9 points and 564.1 yards per game this season. And it has come against the 7th-toughest schedule in the country.
LSU doubters aren’t impressed with their defense, but the only games they gave up big points and yardage totals were games they were in control of and simply let up. But this LSU defense is playing tremendous down the stretch, giving up just 4.1 yards per play in their last four games overall. They beat Texas A&M 50-7, Georgia 37-10 and Oklahoma 63-28. The Sooners didn’t do anything offensively until garbage time in the 2nd half.
It just shows me that when LSU is locked in, they can shut down anyone defensively. And Clemson was extremely fortunate to beat Ohio State last week as the refs basically gave them that game. And while LSU has played the 7th-toughest schedule, Clemson has payed the 56th-toughest. A common opponent is Texas A&M. Clemson beat Texas A&M 24-10 at home, while LSU beat the Aggies 50-7 at home.
It’s safe to say that Clemson’s defense hasn’t faced an offense nearly as potent as LSU, and certainly not many good passing attacks this season with their easy schedule. So I’d say it’s a bad sign of things to come for Clemson considering they gave up 320 passing yards to Ohio State and 283 to Virginia in their last two games coming in.
Ed Orgeron is 8-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of LSU. LSU is 7-0 ATS after outgaining its last opponent by 175 or more yards this season. LSU is 8-1 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 8 or more yards per attempt over the last three years. LSU is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning record. LSU is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games. LSU will go down as one of the best teams in college football history when they throttle Clemson in the National Championship Game. Bet LSU Monday.
|01-12-20||Seahawks v. Packers -4||Top||23-28||Win||100||77 h 43 m||Show|
20* Seahawks/Packers NFC No-Brainer on Green Bay -4
The Seahawks improved to 11-2 in one score games with their fortunate 17-9 win over the Eagles last week. They knocked out Carson Wentz in the first quarter and got the luxury of facing 40-year-old Josh McCown the rest of the way. And they still had to hang on for dear life.
The Seahawks’ luck runs out this week. They have played in two straight physical wars against the 49ers and Eagles and it will take its toll on them this week. Meanwhile, the Packers are rested and ready to go after earning a first-round bye.
Injuries are really taking their toll on the Seahawks now. They could be without three starting offensive linemen. They are likely to be without both tackle Duane Brown and guard Mike Iupati. And tackle George Fant suffered a groin injury that has him questionable. Both backup RB’s Lynch and Homer averaged just 1.0 yards per carry against the Eagles last week as the offense managed just 17 points.
Russell Wilson is going to be running for his life against one of the best tandem of pass rushers in the NFL in the Smith Brothers. And this is a Packers defense that has really improved down the stretch, giving up 20 points or fewer in five straight games and an average of just 14.2 points per game during this stretch. Rodgers finally has a defense to support him, which is a dangerous combination.
This is a very poor Seattle defense that ranked 26th in total defense in allowing 381.6 yards per game during the regular season and 29th in yards per play (6.0) allowed. The injuries are mounting on defense too with CB Flowers, DT Jefferson, LB Kendricks, DE Ansah and DE Clowney all on the injury report. Aaron Rodgers is going to have his way with this defense.
Speaking of Rodgers, this will be the eighth time he has faced Russell Wilson. The home team is 7-0 SU and winning by 8 points per game in the seven previous matchups between Rodgers and Wilson. And it’s going to be about 20 degrees on Sunday after it snows Friday and Saturday in Green Bay. Lambeau Field is arguably the best home-field advantage in the NFL and easily worth 4 points in my opinion. Factor in the rest advantage for Green Bay and all the injuries for the fraudulent Seahawks, and it’s easy to see why I like the Packers only laying 4 points.
The Packers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games off a close road win by 3 points or less. Green Bay is 11-2 ATS off one or more consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons. The Packers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games off five or more consecutive wins. The Packers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games off an ATS loss. Green Bay is 7-1 ATS in its last eight vs. a team with a winning record. The Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Seahawks. Roll with the Packers Sunday.
|01-11-20||Titans +10 v. Ravens||28-12||Win||100||31 h 60 m||Show|
15* Titans/Ravens AFC ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee +10
The Tennessee Titans have made me a lot of money in the second half of the season. A big reason why is because they are a completely different team since Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback. Their season-long stats lie, and oddsmakers are setting their numbers more based on their season-long stats than the team they are with Tannehill.
Tannehill completed 70.3% of his passes for 2,742 yards with a 22-to-6 TD/INT ratio and a whopping 9 yards per completion in the regular season. Their threat of a downfield passing attack has opened things up greatly for Derrick Henry. The Titans have rushed for at least 149 yards in eight straight games while averaging a whopping 189.6 rushing yards per game during this eight-game stretch.
The Titans put up 33.4 points per game over their final seven games. Because they can run the ball, they were 1st in the NFL in red zone scoring efficiency this season. And while the Ravens have been decent against the run, they do give up 4.4 yards per carry. Plus the Ravens faced the 5th-easiest schedule of opposing quarterbacks this season.
Stopping Baltimore’s top-ranked rushing attack is key to stopping them. The Titans are 12th in the NFL against the run in yards per game allowed, but they are an even better 7th in yards per carry (4.0) allowed. They have probably the 2nd-fasted front 7 of any team in the NFL behind the 49ers, who held the Ravens to 20 points earlier this season. Having speed in the front 7 is the key to being able to defend Lamar Jackson.
I like that the Titans are battle-tested. They needed to win in Week 17 to make the playoffs and handled their business in a 35-14 win at Tennessee. And last week they went on the road and beat New England 20-13 as 4.5-point dogs. They are in full-blown playoff mode and gaining confidence with each win.
The Ravens haven’t played a meaningful game since Week 16. And we saw them struggle in the playoffs last year against the Chargers. They’ve played a bunch of cupcakes down the stretch and the last good teams they played were the Bills and 49ers, and they only won those games by 7 and 3 points, respectively. Tennessee has enough film on Jackson and company now to be able to slow them down.
Since both teams like to run the ball so much, this game will be slowed to a snail’s pace. That favors the double-digit underdog here. I think the Titans will continue to have success with Henry on the ground and that will help shorten this game. The Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. The Ravens are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as a home favorite. Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last five playoff home games. Take the Titans Saturday.
|01-11-20||Vikings v. 49ers -6.5||Top||10-27||Win||100||121 h 4 m||Show|
25* NFL Divisional Round GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers -6.5
The 49ers needed the bye week as much as anyone. They were among the first teams to have a bye week this year as theirs came clear back in Week 4. This was a tired, banged up team down the stretch and they showed a lot of heart in getting that all-important No. 1 seed.
It’s going to pay off this week as the 49ers are as healthy as they have been in months. They are expected to get back some key players on defense. LB Kwon Alexander, S Jaquiski Tartt and DE Dee Ford are all back now after missing Week 17. When Alexander, Ford and Nick Bosa have been on the field at the same time this season, opposing quarterbacks have a QBR of 3, which is unheard of.
Conversely, the spot couldn’t be worse for the Minnesota Vikings. They are coming off their huge upset win over the Saints in overtime on Sunday. Now they have to come back and play the early game Saturday on a short week. Not to mention, they have to travel from New Orleans back to Minnesota and then all the way out to the West Coast to Santa Clara.
Injuries are taking their toll on the Vikings, too. Both Stephon Diggs (Illness) and Adam Thielen (ankle) didn’t practice on Tuesday and Wednesday. With all this travel, the Vikings aren’t going to get much practice time at all as it is. And they could be without DT Linval Joseph (knee) who got banged up against the Saints. They are without their top corner in Mackensie Alexander and starting safety Jayron Kearse (toe) is questionable. And after a huge workload returning from injury last week, RB Dalvin Cook won’t be 100% on this short week.
The 49ers weren’t as good defensively down the stretch due to those injuries, but they should get back to being the top defense in the league now. They ranked 2nd in total defense during the regular season giving up just 281.8 yards per game. The 49ers were dominant offensively down the stretch as Jimmy G had a 109.3 QBR since they traded for Emmanuel Sanders. They finished 4th in total offense averaging 381.1 yards per game. They were the only team in the NFL to finish Top 5 in offense and defense this season and I strongly believe they are the best team left in the playoffs now that they are a lot healthier.
Getting margin hasn’t been a problem for the 49ers as they are outscoring opponents by 10.5 points per game on the season and 12.8 points per game at home. The Vikings are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 vs. a team with a winning record. Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win. It’s just too much to ask for the Vikings to go on the road two weeks in a row and beat the two best teams in the NFC in the Saints and 49ers. They will fall flat here against a superior 49ers team in the much better spot. Bet the 49ers Saturday.
|01-06-20||Miami-OH +14 v. UL-Lafayette||Top||17-27||Win||100||69 h 36 m||Show|
20* Miami Ohio/LA-Lafayette Lending Tree Bowl No-Brainer on Miami Ohio +14
The Miami Ohio Redhawks just won the MAC Championship by upsetting Central Michigan in the title game as underdogs. And now head coach Chuck Martin gets to play the disrespect card again with this team in the Lending Tree Bowl as 14-point underdogs to Louisiana-Lafayette.
Miami Ohio played the tougher schedule than Louisiana and certainly isn’t 14 points worse in my book. They aren’t a flashy team with an average offense that doesn’t blow you away. But they do two things that are more important, which is play defense and get great plays from special teams. They have a Top 5 special teams unit in the country. And their defense has been solid in giving up 380.5 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play this season.
Lafayette is the flashy team with the explosive offense that puts up 38.8 points per game. But I question their motivation in this game. They just lost to Appalachian State by 7 points for a second straight year in the Sun Belt Championship Game. That was their Super Bowl, while this will be just another game for them. They know they are heavy favorites and expected to win, so I question their motivation because of it.
It’s only the 2nd bowl game in 9 seasons for the Redhawks, so they are obviously excited to be here. They nearly upset Mississippi State in 2016 as 14-point underdogs in a 16-17 defeat in their last bowl game.
Chuck Martin is 9-1 ATS off an upset win as an underdog as the coach of Miami Ohio. The Redhawks are 11-1 ATS off two straight conference games over the last two seasons. Miami is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games and 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games as an underdog. Bet Miami Ohio Monday.
|01-05-20||Seahawks v. Eagles +2.5||Top||17-9||Loss||-110||42 h 2 m||Show|
25* Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia Eagles +2.5
I’ve been fading the Seahawks with a lot of success here down the stretch. I spotted that they were frauds a long time ago, and that is still my belief. I’m going to fade them on the road here against the Philadelphia Eagles in the Wild Card round as well for many of the same reasons.
The Seahawks are 10-2 in one-score games this season, which is unsustainable. Russell Wilson doesn’t have the ‘clutch gene’ like everyone thinks. He was 31-33 in one-score games coming into this season in his career. The Seahawks have a +7 point differential for the entire season, which is closer to an 8-8 team than one that is 11-5. They are complete frauds.
The real Seahawks have shown over the last four weeks. They are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. They lost by 16 to the Rams as 1-point road dogs, only beat the hapless Panthers 30-24 as 6.5-point road favorites, were upset by the Cardinals 13-27 as 9.5-point home favorites and lost to the 49ers 21-26 at home as 3.5-point dogs. That loss to the 49ers was devastating as it meant they’d have to go on the road in the wild card instead of hosting a game. And they came up just inches short. It’s tough to bounce back from a loss like that.
The Eagles found themselves needing to win their final four games just to make the playoffs. That’s exactly what they did despite all their injuries. They went 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS with their final two games being the most impressive. They beat the Cowboys 17-9 at home and gained 431 yards while allowing just 311 yards, outgaining them by 120 yards. And last week they handled their business in a 34-17 win at the Giants with 400 total yards.
Despite all the injuries, this offense is flowing behind some great play from Carson Wentz with four straight games of 400-plus yards of offense. They are far from broken, and they are finding different ways to move the football and score points behind the genius of head coach Doug Pederson. And they will get Miles Sanders back this week, and could get both Zach Ertz and Lane Johnson back.
A big reason the Seahawks have struggled down the stretch is injuries, too. They have injuries all over their defense at all three levels. And their offense lost their top two running backs, which prompted them to sign Marshawn Lynch off the street. They certainly miss Josh Gordon as well since he was suspended.
It’s also easy to see the Seahawks are a fraudulent team when you look at their numbers. They are just 26th in total defense, giving up 381.6 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season. They are actually getting outgained by 7.2 yards per play on the season. And their running game has taken a big hit here down the stretch with all these injuries to their running backs and along the offensive line.
The Seahawks won’t be able to run on the Eagles, either. Philadelphia ranks 3rd in the NFL in giving up just 90.1 yards per game rushing. And the Eagles deserved to win their first meeting with the Seahawks, losing 9-17 at home despite committing five turnovers. I have a hard time believing they are going to come anywhere close to committing five turnovers again, and thus the result will be in their favor this time around.
The Eagles are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as an underdog. Philadelphia is 6-0 ATS in its last six January games. The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last five playoff games. Philadelphia is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win. Bet the Eagles Sunday.
Note: My favorite bet for Sunday is an Eagles +8.5/Saints -1.5 6-Point Teaser at -120 juice. Instead of betting both these games separately, I’d recommend betting this teaser instead. Plays will get graded on the +2.5/-7.5 lines, but make sure to have your biggest bet on this teaser if you decide to play both plays individually.
|01-05-20||Vikings v. Saints -7.5||Top||26-20||Loss||-110||38 h 27 m||Show|
20* Vikings/Saints NFC No-Brainer on New Orleans -7.5
The New Orleans Saints are on a mission this season to make amends for coming up just short of the Super Bowl. Granted, the refs robbed them of any chance to go to the Super Bowl in the NFC Championship Game, but they fell short none the less. I’ve never seen a team more motivated than this New Orleans Saints will be to start the playoffs this week.
The Saints have been playing like Super Bowl contenders in the second half of the season. They are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with five of those six wins coming by 8 points or more. They are outscoring their opponents by 13.6 points per game in their last seven games with their only loss coming on a last-second field goal to the 49ers.
Drew Brees is playing some of the best football of his career. This potent Saints offense has put up 26-plus points in seven straight games and an average of 36.3 points per game during this stretch. They should feast on a weak Minnesota defense that is giving up 65.6% completions and 234 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. The Vikings have injuries at cornerback that are going to make it very difficult for them to slow down Brees and company.
I’m also concerned about this Minnesota offense. It’s well documented how poorly Kirk Cousins has played in big games, and that has continued this season. He lost to the Packers twice, the Chiefs and the Seahawks. Cousins went 1-4 against playoff teams this year with his only win coming at home against the Eagles.
A lot has been made of the Vikings getting Dalvin Cook back from injury this week, but he’s far from 100%. And a lot has also been made of the Vikings getting Adam Thielen back recently from a hamstring injury, but he’s also a shell of his former self. Thielen has just four receptions for 52 yards in his last four healthy games. There’s going to be a lot of pressure on Cousins to match Brees score for score, and I just don’t think he’s capable.
The Saints also want to avenge the ‘Minnesota Miracle’ when the Vikings scored on the final play of the game to beat them in the 2017-18 season, 29-24. It’s another reason why I’ve never seen a team more motivated than these Saints.
Wild card favorites of more than 7 points are 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS since 2005. The Vikings are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning record. Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last six games as a road underdog. The Saints are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Roll with the Saints Sunday.
Note: My favorite bet for Sunday is an Eagles +8.5/Saints -1.5 6-Point Teaser at -120 juice. Instead of betting both these games separately, I’d recommend betting this teaser instead. Plays will get graded on the +2.5/-7.5 lines, but make sure to have your biggest bet on this teaser if you decide to play both plays individually.
|01-04-20||Titans +5 v. Patriots||20-13||Win||100||22 h 47 m||Show|
15* Titans/Patriots AFC ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee +5
It’s obvious there’s something seriously wrong with the New England Patriots in 2019-20 compared to in years’ past. They just lost to the Miami Dolphins as 17-point home favorites with a first-round bye on the line. That never used to happen. And now I don’t expect them to make easy work of the Tennessee Titans, a much better team than Miami.
It’s a Titans team I’ve been riding a lot down the stretch because they are better than they get credit for. The Titans have gone 7-3 SU & 6-3-1 ATS in their 10 games since Ryan Tannehill took over. Tannehill has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league, completing 70.3% of his passes for 2,742 yards with a 22-to-6 TD/INT ratio while averaging a whopping 9 yards per attempt.
Having Tannehill as a threat passing has really opened up the running game for Derrick Henry, who led the NFL in rushing this year. The Titans have rushed for at least 149 yards in seven straight games while averaging a whopping 188 rushing yards per game during this seven-game stretch. The Titans are also averaging 33.4 points per game in their last seven. This offense is a juggernaut, but the betting public is failing to realize it.
New England has a great defense, but it has come against the worst schedule of opposing offenses in the NFL. They have played the 30th-ranked schedule in the league overall. And their defense was lit up for 27 points and 389 total yards by the Miami Dolphins last week. I won’t argue that the Patriots don’t still have a solid defense, but the problem is on the other side of the ball.
Tom Brady just hasn’t been himself and certainly doesn’t have the weapons he needs to be successful this year. The offensive line isn’t getting the push they need either as the Patriots have rushed for fewer than 100 yards in half their games. The Patriots are averaging just 5.2 yards per play, which ranks 23rd in the NFL. The Titans are averaging 6.1 yards per play, which ranks 4th in the NFL.
Tennessee is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a division rival. The Titans made easy work of the Texans last week, while the Patriots fought tooth and nail to try and beat the Dolphins. I think that will make the Titans the fresher team this week. There’s value here on the road underdog. Take the Titans Saturday.
|01-04-20||Tulane -7 v. Southern Miss||30-13||Win||100||13 h 36 m||Show|
15* Tulane/Southern Miss Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Tulane -7
I believe the Tulane Green Wave will be highly motivated for a victory in the Lending Tree Bowl. They lost three straight and five of their final six to fall to 6-6 on the season. They want to end the season with a winning record, and I love betting on 6-6 teams in bowl season because of that reason.
Keep in mind that Tulane’s losses down the stretch came against a brutal schedule. They suffered road losses to Memphis, Navy, Temple and SMU as well as a 3-point home loss to UCF. That’s four 10-win teams and a Temple team that was very tough to beat at home all season.
With that schedule, it’s no surprised that Tulane played the tougher slate of these tewo teams. Their schedule ranked 38 spots harder than Southern Miss. It’s a Golden Eagles team that had a chance to play in the C-USA title game late in the season. But they lost their final two games in blowout fashion. They lost by 18 at home to Western Kentucky as 3-point favorites. They also lost by 17 at Florida Atlantic as 9-point dogs.
Southern Miss only beat one bowl team all season, and that was a bad UAB team that lost their starting QB to injury early in the game. The other six wins came against Alcorn State, Troy, UTEP, North Texas, Rice and UTSA. Basically every time they stepped up in class they lost as the five losses all came by 15 points or more.
Tulane had some impressive stats for a 6-6 team. The Green Wave averaged 33.3 points and 455.2 yards per game while giving up 27.4 points and 378.5 yards per game. They outgained their opposition by 76.7 yards per game on the season, which is impressive when you consider how difficult their schedule was.
Willie Fritz is 27-13 ATS as a favorite in all games he has coached. The Green Wave are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite. Tulane is 4-0 ATS in its last four games off an ATS loss. The Green Wave are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. C-USA opponents. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet Tulane Saturday.
|01-03-20||Ohio -9 v. Nevada||30-21||Push||0||3 h 41 m||Show|
15* Ohio/Nevada Potato Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Ohio -9
The Ohio Bobcats have been dominant in their last two bowl games. They have outscored UAB and San Diego State a combined 68-6 the past two seasons. And they just blasted Bowling Green by 42 and Akron by 49 in their final two games to close out the regular season.
It’s the final game for Ohio senior QB Nathan Roarke, so you know he is going to want to put on a big performance. He has another great season with 20 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions. Roarke also rushed for 780 yards and 12 scored to lead this explosive Ohio offense.
Nevada has to be one of the most fraudulent 7-5 teams I’ve ever season. They were outscored by nearly 11 points per game this season and were also outgunned by 1.2 yards per play. They lost by 71 to Oregon, by 51 to Hawaii, by 26 to Utah State and by 28 to Wyoming. And now they have four defensive starters suspended for this bowl game. I think they’ll be in over their heads here in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.
Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Ohio) - an excellent offensive team that averages at least 440 yards per game against a bad defense that allows 390 to 440 yards per game after 7-plus games, after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game are 38-9 (80.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
Ohio is 4-0 ATS in its last four bowl games. The Bobcats are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games. Roll with Ohio Friday.
|01-02-20||Tennessee -2 v. Indiana||Top||23-22||Loss||-110||57 h 25 m||Show|
25* Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee -2
The Tennessee Vols are ecstatic to be playing in a bowl game for the first time since 2016. They were a juggernaut to close out the season going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Their only loss was a road loss to Alabama as a 34.5-point dog and they actually played the Crimson Tide tough for a half.
Tennessee pulled four outright upsets during this 6-1 stretch and the team is really buying into head coach Jeremy Pruitt. The Vols beat four bowl eligible teams this year and played a much tougher schedule than Indiana did. And they will be playing in SEC country in Jacksonville, so they should have a home-field advantage.
Indiana had a great year as well with an 8-4 season. But the Hoosiers’ eight wins all came against non-bowl teams. They went 0-4 against the bowl teams they did play and weren’t really that competitive in them losing those four games by a combined 82 points, or by an average of 20.5 points per game.
Tennessee is 14-1 ATS in its last 15 road games after two straight games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. Indiana is 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in its last four bowl games. The Hoosiers are 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games. The Vols are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten opponents. Bet Tennessee Thursday.
|01-02-20||Boston College +7.5 v. Cincinnati||Top||6-38||Loss||-110||53 h 25 m||Show|
20* Boston College/Cincinnati Birmingham Bowl No-Brainer on Boston College +7.5
The Boston College Eagles clearly want to be playing in a bowl game after missing out on a bowl last year. They showed that in the season finale as they went into Pitt and came away with an upset road win as 7.5-point underdogs to improved to 6-6 on the season.
Now the Eagles fit into one of my favorite systems. It’s betting on 6-6 teams in bowl games who are off a SU win as an underdog. Those teams have gone 70% ATS in bowl games since 2000. Also, 6-6 teams playing an opponent with 9 or more wins are 22-9 ATS since 2000. Both systems make sense because almost always that 6-6 team is the more motivated team.
Cincinnati had higher hopes than playing in the Birmingham Bowl. The Bearcats were neck-and-neck with Memphis for a New Year’s 6 Bowl. But they lost to Memphis twice, once in the regular season finale and again in the AAC Championship Game. They had a chance to win both those games in the 4th quarter but came up short. I really question their motivation now having to play a 6-6 Boston College team that they cannot be too excited for.
I think this line has been adjusted too much for Boston College having an interim head coach in Rich Gunnell and also for RB AJ Dillon sitting out. Backup RB David Bailey rushed for 811 yards and average 5.8 yards per carry this season. Dillon only averaged 5.3 yards per carry, so Bailey was actually the more explosive back.
Boston College is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 games as an underdog. The Eagles are 7-0 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last two seasons. Cincinnati is 0-4 ATS in its last four bowl games. Take Boston College Thursday.
|01-01-20||Wisconsin v. Oregon +3||Top||27-28||Win||100||32 h 34 m||Show|
20* Wisconsin/Oregon Rose Bowl No-Brainer on Oregon +3
Oregon was really close to being 12-0 this season. They had last-second losses to both Arizona State and Auburn on the road. They are probably the fourth-best team in the country and would have made the four-team playoff if they would have won either of those games.
I think the wrong team is favored in this game. Oregon showed it could handle the physicality of both Auburn and Utah, two teams that are similar to this physical Wisconsin team. They thumped Utah 37-15 in the Pac-12 Championship and dominated at the line of scrimmage. RB CJ Verdell rushed for 208 yards on the Utes. QB Justin Herbert will be the best player on the field and wants to improve his draft stock. And Oregon will also have the speed advantage.
Wisconsin is obviously happy to be playing the Rose Bowl, but they have to feel a little deflated from not winning a Big Ten Championship. They had Ohio State down 21-7 at half, but gave up 27 unanswered points and lost 21-34. And don’t forget they lost to Illinois as a 29-point favorite.
Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Wisconsin) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game against an opponent that outgained its last opponents by 125 or more yards are 74-32 (69.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Oregon is 48-24 ATS in its last 72 games when the line is +3 to -3. The Ducks are 30-15 ATS in their last 45 games playing with two or more weeks of rest. Oregon is 45-14 ATS in its last 59 games after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game. Bet Oregon Wednesday.
|01-01-20||Minnesota v. Auburn -7||31-24||Loss||-100||27 h 24 m||Show|
15* Minnesota/Auburn Outback Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Auburn -7
The Auburn Tigers have a huge talent edge over the Minnesota Golden Gophers in this one. And most of their future NFL players are expected to play in the Outback Bowl, including two outstanding defensive linemen in Derrick Brown and Marlon Davidson. It appears Auburn is ‘all in’ for this game.
The Tigers had a great 9-3 season against the nation’s 2nd-toughest schedule. They had to play Oregon out of conference and beat them. They beat Alabama and Texas A&M. And their three losses came to LSU, Florida and Georgia all on the road and all against 10-win teams.
To compare, Minnesota played the 61st-ranked schedule in the country. That’s a 60-spot difference compared to Auburn in strength of schedule. They played in the weak Big Ten West division and played one of the easiest non-conference schedules you will ever see against South Dakota State, Fresno and Georgia Southern. And the Golden Gophers aren’t as good as their 10-2 record as they won five games by 7 points or less.
Minnesota’s three wins against bowl teams came against Penn State by 5, Georgia Southern by 3 and Illinois. And this will be the toughest team that Minnesota will have faced all season. The other was Wisconsin, and they were manhandled at home by the Badgers and lost by 21 points. They will struggle with Auburn’s physicality at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball as well.
Auburn boasts an elite defense that gives up 18.6 points, 323.9 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play. Teams didn’t have much success throwing against them, and Minnesota is going to need to be able to throw it. Auburn held teams to 5.9 yards per attempt, 1.8 yards per attempt than they normally average. They also held teams to 3.4 yards per carry, which is 1.7 yards per carry less than they normally average.
Auburn is 6-0 ATS in its last six non-conference games. The Tigers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite. Auburn is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games overall. Gus Malzahn is 18-8 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game as the coach of Auburn. I believe the Golden Gophers will be in over their heads here. Take Auburn Wednesday.
|12-31-19||Texas +7 v. Utah||Top||38-10||Win||100||11 h 43 m||Show|
20* Texas/Utah Alamo Bowl No-Brainer on Texas +7
I question Utah’s motivation playing in the Alamo Bowl. The Utes would have made the four-team playoff had they beaten Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship. Instead, they got embarrassed 15-37. It’s not a great consolation prize for them to be playing in the Alamo Bowl now.
Texas is looking to build something going into next year. And we saw the Longhorns win outright as 13.5-point underdogs in the Sugar Bowl last year. Georgia wasn’t motivated for that game and was in a similar position to the one Utah is in this year. Georgia missed out on the 4-team playoff with their loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship.
Tom Herman thrives in the role of the underdog. He is 15-5 ATS as a dog as a head coach. He’s also 3-0 in bowl games with three outright wins as an underdog. He beat Georgia last year and also beat Missouri 33-16 as 3-point dogs in 2017. He also beat Florida State 38-24 as 7-point dogs when at Houston in 2015 in the Peach Bowl.
Sam Ehlinger is one of the best quarterbacks in the country. He has completed 65.1% of his passes with a 29-to-9 TD/INT ratio this season. He has rushed for 590 yards and six scores as well.
The Pac-12 is just 5-19-1 ATS in bowl games the last four seasons. Utah is 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games. The Utes are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games. The Longhorns are 7-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games as an underdog. Texas is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 neutral site games overall. Bet Texas Tuesday.
|12-31-19||Georgia State v. Wyoming -7||17-38||Win||100||8 h 38 m||Show|
15* Georgia State/Wyoming Arizona Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Wyoming -7
The Wyoming Cowboys were bowl eligible last year, but they were left out of a bowl game. There’s no question they are happy to be going bowling this year and will show up for this Arizona bowl in their part of the country.
Wyoming played a much tougher schedule than Georgia State did. And the Cowboys have the much better defense in this matchup. Wyoming allowed just 17.8 points per game and 5.0 yards per play this season. Georgia State gave up 36.1 points per game and 6.7 yards per play this year.
Both teams struggled down the stretch, but Wyoming was at least competitive in losing three of its last four. All four losses came on the road to Boise State, Utah State and Air Force, and they were in every one of those games in the 4th quarter. Georgia State was not competitive in losing three of its last four. They lost by 14 to Louisiana-Monroe, by 29 to Appalachian State and by 28 to Georgia Southern.
There’s one hidden factor here that is getting overlooked. Georgia State QB Dan Ellington was a stud through the first nine games of the season before tearing his ACL. He rushed for 70 yards per game in the first nine games and was a great dual-threat. But since playing the last three games on a torn ACL, Ellington has rushed for a total of -5 yards in his last three games. I don’t think his injury is being factored into this line enough.
Wyoming is 14-4 ATS when the total is 42.5 to 49 over the last three seasons. The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last nine vs. Sun Belt opponents. Wyoming is 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games. The Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as favorites. The Panthers are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record. Take Wyoming Tuesday.
|12-31-19||Kansas State v. Navy -2.5||17-20||Win||100||7 h 58 m||Show|
15* K-State/Navy Liberty Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Navy -2.5
This game fits into one of my favorite bowl systems. Teams that won three or fewer games last year are 18-3 ATS the last four years in bowl games. Navy lost 10 games last year but won 10 games this year. Their only two losses came to a pair of 11-win teams in Memphis & Notre Dame on the road. Two other teams that fit into this system this year were Kent State winning outright as 7-point dogs and North Carolina crushing Temple.
I just think Navy is the better team, and this is a better matchup for them. The Midshipmen led the country in rushing at 360.2 yards per game. Kansas State ranks 62nd against the run, giving up 152 rushing yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry. That’s pretty poor when you consider they don’t face many good rushing attacks in the Big 12.
Navy QB Malcolm Perry is an absolute stud. He is 4th in the country in rushing with 1,804 yards and 21 touchdowns. He also threw for over 1,000 yards this season, so the Midshipmen are a threat in the passing game more than most years with Perry under center.
Military teams have hit about 70% ATS over the last 20 years in bowl games. They are so difficult to prepare for because teams just can’t simulate what they do. They don’t have the personnel to simulate it. And Navy is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five bowl games.
Navy is 6-0 ATS vs. poor passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse this season. The Midshipmen are 7-1 ATS as favorites this season. Navy is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 games overall. Kansas State is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 bowl games. The Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as underdogs. Roll with Navy Tuesday.
|12-30-19||Virginia v. Florida -14||Top||28-36||Loss||-110||87 h 40 m||Show|
20* Virginia/Florida Orange Bowl No-Brainer on Florida -14
Virginia was just blasted by Clemson 62-17 in the ACC Championship Game. The Cavaliers did not deserve a New Year’s 6 Bowl, but they have been given one due to playing in the ACC title game. Now they’ll get blasted again by another superior team in Florida in the Orange Bowl.
Dan Mullen is one of my favorite coaches in college football. What he has done in just two seasons at Florida has been mighty impressive. Remember, the Gators were just 4-7 before he arrived here last year. He promptly guided the Gators to a 10-3 season and a 41-15 win over Michigan in their bowl game, improves Mullen to 6-2 all-time in bowls.
Mullen has the Gators looking at 11 wins this season as they come in at 10-2 with their only losses coming to Georgia and LSU. They were competitive in both losses, leading LSU 28-21 before losing 28-42 and only losing to Georgia by 7. And both of those games were on the road.
Florida’s offense is one of the most improved units in the country. The Gators put up 56 points against Vanderbilt and another 40 against Florida State in two of their final three games this year. Now they face a Virginia defense that has been absolutely gashed n the 2nd half of the season.
The Cavaliers have allowed at least 27 points in each of their final six games this year. They have allowed an average of 34.3 points per game in those six contests. I know if Florida gets to 34-plus in this game, chances are they will cover this 14-point spread. That’s because they have an elite defense that gives up just 14.4 points per game and they will shut down Virginia’s offense.
Mullen is 7-0 ATS after allowing 7 points or less in the first half of two straight games as the coach of Florida. Bronco Mendenhall is 2-9 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams that average 8 or more yards per attempt as the coach of Virginia. The Gators are 7-2 ATS in their last nine bowl games. Finally, the Gators will have a big home-field advantage with this game being played in Miami. Bet Florida Monday.
|12-29-19||49ers -2.5 v. Seahawks||Top||26-21||Win||100||168 h 53 m||Show|
20* 49ers/Seahawks NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on San Francisco -2.5
The Seattle Seahawks are frauds. I’ve been saying it all season. I faded them last week with an easy outright win on the Cardinals +9.5, and I’m fading them again this week for many of the same reasons. They are the most fortunate 11-4 team I’ve ever seen.
Indeed, the Seahawks are 11-4 despite having just a +12 point differential on the season. They have gone 10-1 in one-score games this year. People say it’s just Russell Wilson being clutch, but Wilson was just 31-33 in one-score games prior to 2019.
The 49ers are 12-3 and every bit as good as their record. They have a +164 point differential on the season, which is 152 points better than the Seahawks. All three of their losses came on the final play of the game.
Yes, the Seahawks beat the 49ers in their first meeting, but it comes with an asterisk. The 49ers were without their most important player in George Kittle, who is worth more to the spread than any other non-QB in the NFL. And Emmanuel Sanders got hurt early in that game. Jimmy G didn’t have any weapons left. And the Seahawks still needed a FG in overtime to beat the 49ers. Now it’s revenge time for San Francisco.
The 49ers are the much healthier team in the rematch. The Seahawks have injury problems everywhere. They are missing a handful of guys on defense, they could be without two starting offensive linemen, and will for sure be without LT Duane Brown. They just recently lost WR Josh Gordon to suspension, taking away one of Wilson’s top targets.
The Seahawks needed a win last week against the Cardinals to keep alive a chance at a first-round bye. But they lost 13-27 at home as 9.5-point favorites. They were outgained by 188 yards by the Cardinals and managed just 224 total yards themselves. Their defense is one of the worst in the NFL, and it showed last week, especially since the Cardinals kept scoring even after Kyler Murray went down with injury.
The Seahawks rank 26th in total defense giving up 380.5 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play. The 49ers rank 2nd in total defense, giving up 277.4 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play. They are allowing over 100 yards less per game than the Seahawks, and that’s the difference in this game. The 49ers also have the better offensive numbers this year, scoring 30.2 points per game and gaining 379.9 yards per game while ranking 2nd in scoring and 6th in total offense.
The 49ers also get an extra day of rest after beating the Rams on Saturday. The Seahawks don’t have the same home-field advantage they used to. They are just 2-5 ATS at home this season with losses to the Ravens, Saints and Cardinals outright. Their four home wins came by 7, 6, 1 and 1 point and only one of those was against a playoff team in the Vikings. Take the 49ers Sunday.
|12-29-19||Titans +1 v. Texans||Top||35-14||Win||100||166 h 13 m||Show|
25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee Titans +1
The Tennessee Titans need a win and they’re in the playoffs. We know they will be max motivated here. The same cannot be said for the Houston Texans, which is why I have made this my 25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR for the 2019 season.
The Texans have nothing to play for. Yes, they could get the No. 3 seed instead of the No. 4 if the Chiefs lose to the Chargers and they win this game. But the Chiefs are 9-point home favorites against the Chargers. Kansas City plays at 1:00 EST, while Houston plays at 4:25 EST. So the Texans will know their fate before they kick off, and that fate is going to be that they are locked into the No. 4 seed.
After coming out Monday and saying he would play his starters, head coach Bill O’Brien has recanted as I expected, which is why I locked this line in early. I expected him to rest his starters, and that’s precisely what he is going to do. That’s why this line has moved roughly 7 points toward the Titans since the opening line.
It looks like all the best players for the Texans will sit. That includes QB Deshaun Watson, WR DeAndre Hopkins, T Laremy Tunsil, WR Kenny Stills, WR Will Fuller, DE J.J. Watt and there will likely be more. The product the Texans put on the field won’t be good at all, and I expect the Titans to win this game easily by a TD or more and likely by double-digits.
Tennessee actually sat some players last week, including RB Derrick Henry, against the Saints last week. That game actually didn’t matter to them. They knew that this Week 17 game was going to be their only chance of making the playoffs because it would give them the tiebreaker with the Steelers. They already have the tiebreaker over the Raiders.
The Titans still nearly beat the Saints and probably should have last week if not for a fumble when they were going in to take the lead in the closing minutes. But now getting Henry back is huge for this team. The Titans have been a juggernaut running the football down the stretch. They have rushed for 169.4 yards per game in their last seven games.
Ryan Tannehill has played at an MVP level since taking over for Marcus Mariota. He is completing 70.7% of his passes for 2,544 yards with a 20-to-6 TD/INT ratio while also averaging a whopping 9.0 yards per attempt. The Titans will be able to name their number against this Texans defense.
Houston really should be 0-3 in their last three games overall. They were beaten by 14 by the Broncos, won by 3 over the Titans and won by 3 over the Bucs. But they lost the stats in all three games. The Broncos hung 38 points on them, the Titans outgained them by 42 yards and the Bucs outgained them by 206 yards despite not having their top two receivers.
Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Houston) - off two consecutive road wins, a good team winning 60% to 75% of their games on the season are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1983. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Tennessee) - after playing a home game against an opponent that’s off a two-game road trip are 24-7 (77.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Titans Sunday.
Note: I'm expecting the Texans to rest their starters since they clinched the division last week. Bet this line as soon as it's available at your book. It's a 25* up to Titans -6.5, a 20* at anything worse.
|12-29-19||Colts -4 v. Jaguars||20-38||Loss||-110||45 h 3 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Indianapolis Colts -4
The Indianapolis Colts sit at 7-8 on the season. They are clearly motivated to win in Week 17 to get to .500 on the season, because 8-8 sounds much better than 7-9. And they showed that last week by crushing the Carolina Panthers 38-6 at home.
Now the Colts go on the road to face a Jacksonville Jaguars team that has all but quit. The Jaguars are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall with all six losses coming by double-digits. They are failing to cover the spread by an average of 14 points per game during this stretch.
The Colts beat the Jaguars 33-13 at home in their first meeting this season, and they should be able to go on the road and beat a hapless Jaguars team by more than 4 points. The Jaguars know that they are likely lose all of their coaches in the offseason and it’s just a team in turmoil right now, which explains their disastrous finish.
Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Indianapolis) - after playing a home game against an opponent that is off a two-game road trip are 24-7 (77.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Colts are 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. AFC South opponents. Indianapolis is 19-9-1 ATS in its last 29 games as a road favorite. The Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and lost their last two home games by 35 to the Chargers and by 17 to the Bucs. Take the Colts Sunday.
|12-29-19||Jets +4.5 v. Bills||Top||13-6||Win||100||163 h 34 m||Show|
20* AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Jets +4.5
The Buffalo Bills have absolutely nothing to play for in Week 17. They will be resting starters, and they should not be favored over the New York Jets as a result. They are locked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC and will face the No. 4 seed, which will likely be the Houston Texans.
The New York Jets are playing well down the stretch. They are 5-2 in their last seven games overall. They just upset the Pittsburgh Steelers 16-10 as 3-point home underdogs last week. And they are looking to cap off a 6-2 run to finish the 2019 season and build momentum heading into next year.
The Bills will just run, run and run some more to try and get this game over with. Well, the Jets have the answer for Buffalo’s running game. Indeed, the Jets rank 2nd in the NFL in giving up just 87.9 rushing yards per game. They are also 1st in the NFL in allowing just 3.3 yards per carry.
Plays on road teams (NY Jets) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games, in December games are 48-19 (71.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The underdog is 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings. Bet the Jets Sunday.
Note: I expect the Bills to rest their starters with nothing to play for in Week 17. Bet this line as soon as it comes out at your book. It's a 20* up to Jets -3, a 15* at anything worse.
|12-29-19||Browns v. Bengals +3||23-33||Win||100||42 h 45 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER On Cincinnati Bengals +3
The Cincinnati Bengals locked up the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft with their loss to the Dolphins last week. A win won’t hurt them now as they are in line to draft Joe Burrow. They will be motivated to beat their division and in-state rival in the Cleveland Browns Sunday.
The Bengals showed last week that they are still trying. They erased a 16-point deficit in the final minute of that Miami game with two touchdowns and two 2-point conversions to force overtime. It definitely would have been the worst beat all-time if the Dolphins had not gone on to win in overtime.
The Browns are a dumpster fire. They lost two weeks ago as favorites at Arizona by a final of 24-38. They gave up 38 points and 445 total yards to the Cardinals. And last week they lost by 16 at home to the Ravens. They managed just 241 total yards and gave up 481 yards, getting outgained by 240 yards by the Ravens. They won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Bengals in Week 17 as they were the Ravens last week.
The Bengals want revenge from a 19-27 loss at Cleveland earlier this month. Cincinnati really deserved to win that game. They outgained the Browns 451 to 333, or by 118 total yards. But they just couldn’t convert in the red zone, either kicking FG’s or coming up short on 4th downs. And keep in mind Andy Dalton did not play in that game, but he is playing now and wants to show teams that he can still be a starter in this league.
Plays on any team (Cincinnati) - revenging a road loss vs. opponent, off an upset loss as a road favorite are 100-53 (65.4%) ATS since 1983. Cleveland is 1-8 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games over the last three seasons. The Browns are 4-15 ATS off two or more consecutive losses over the last three years. The Browns are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. The Bengals are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Roll with the Bengals Sunday.
|12-28-19||Clemson -2 v. Ohio State||29-23||Win||100||39 h 9 m||Show|
15* Clemson/Ohio State Fiesta Bowl BAILOUT on Clemson -2
I realize this is a very evenly-matched games when you look at the numbers. Both Clemson and LSU are outscoring opponents by 36 points per game on the season. They have nearly identical offensive and defensive numbers as well. But there are several key advantages for Clemson that makes me believe they’ll win this game by a field goal or more over Ohio State.
First and foremost, the Tigers have a huge coaching edge. Dabo Swinney has proven himself time and time again in these big games, going toe-to-toe with Nick Saban and Alabama and taking him down twice in the national title game in recent years. He beat Urban Meyer and Ohio State the last time he faced them in the playoff, 31-0 back in 2016. Ryan Day did a tremendous job at Ohio State this season, but he is overmatched here against Swinney.
Secondly, Clemson has the advantage at quarterback. Trevor Lawrence got off to a slow start this season, but then showed why he was the Heisman favorite coming into the year by dominating down the stretch. Indeed, Lawrence had a 20-to-0 TD/INT ratio over his final six games of the season. Justin Fields struggled a bit against Penn State and Wisconsin in his final two games of the season with a knee injury. He says he is only 80-85% healthy coming into this Fiesta Bowl. He hasn’t been here before, while Lawrence led Clemson to the national title last year.
Swinney is 11-1 ATS vs. good defensive teams that give up 17 or fewer points per game as the coach of Clemson. Clemson is 9-1 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 450 or more yards per game over the last two seasons. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game this season. Clemson is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The Tigers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 bowl games and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 December games. The Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. ACC opponents. Roll with Clemson Saturday.
|12-28-19||Oklahoma v. LSU -13.5||28-63||Win||100||35 h 9 m||Show|
15* Oklahoma/LSU Peach Bowl ANNIHILATOR on LSU -13.5
The LSU Tigers went 13-0 this season to earn the No. 1 overall seed in the college football playoff. They have had no problem winning by margin this season as 11 of their 13 wins have come by 14 points or more. So I have no problem laying the 13.5 points in the Peach Bowl against Oklahoma.
LSU showed no signs of slowing down late in the season. Each of their final four wins came by 21 points or more. That includes their 43-point win over Texas A&M in the regular season finale, which was one of the single-most impressive wins in all of college football. Then they blasted Georgia by 27 in the SEC Championship.
Oklahoma is far and away the worst team in the four-team playoff and probably doesn’t deserve to be here. The Sooners were fortunate in close games once again this year, going 5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less. I expect Oklahoma to get exposed in the four-team playoff once again this year.
A big reason Oklahoma played so many close games is because they once again have a poor defense, which gives them little to no chance of competing against elite teams like LSU. Oklahoma will be missing two of its best players on defense in DE Ronnie Perkins and S Delarrin Turner-Yell.
Perkins was suspended, and Turner-Yell was injured in bowl practices leading up to the game. Perkins is their best pass rusher, and Turner-Yell is their second-leading tackler. Both will be missed as Oklahoma tries to slow down this juggernaut of an LSU offense that puts up 48 points and 554 yards per game. Heisman winner Joe Burrow is completing 78% of his passes with a 48-to-6 TD/INT ratio on the season.
Oklahoma is 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. teams that average 30 or more points per game. LSU is 9-2 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last two seasons. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more total yards. The Sooners are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Oklahoma is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 neutral site games. LSU is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. Big 12 opponents. The Tigers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning record. Take LSU Saturday.
|12-28-19||Memphis v. Penn State -7||Top||39-53||Win||100||31 h 49 m||Show|
20* Memphis/Penn State Cotton Bowl No-Brainer on Penn State -7
Memphis head coach Mike Norvell has bolted for Florida State. I think the Tigers will miss his guidance, leadership and offensive mind heading into this bowl game against Penn State. Offensive line coach Ryan Silverfield will coach the bowl and will be overmatched by James Franklin at Penn State.
Penn State gets back QB Sean Clifford from injury after getting hurt against Ohio State in the next-to-last game of the season. He sat out the Rutgers game, but he’s back now. And I’m backing a Penn State team that played a much tougher schedule (43rd) than Memphis (71st) this season. Their only two losses were to 10-win teams in Ohio State and Minnesota, and both losses were on the road.
Penn State will win the battle in the trenches in this one, especially on defense. Memphis hasn’t seen a defense nearly as good as the one they will face here in the Nittany Lions, who give up just 14.1 points per game this season. They will be able to slow down QB Brady White and this Memphis offense.
Memphis is just 1-10 ATS in its last 11 December games. The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last six neutral site games as an underdog. Memphis is 0-4 ATS in its last four bowl games. Penn State is 20-9-2 ATS in its last 21 against a team with a winning record. Outright winners have gone 16-0-1 ATS in the last 17 Cotton Bowls, and I don’t expect the spread to come into play in this one either as the Nittany Lions win by double-digits. Bet Penn State Saturday.
|12-27-19||Washington State v. Air Force -2.5||Top||21-31||Win||100||18 h 57 m||Show|
20* Washington State/Air Force Cheez-It Bowl BAILOUT on Air Force -2.5
I’ve been riding Air Force quite a bit this season and I’ll continue to do so in the Cheez-It Bowl against Washington State. The Falcons went 10-2 this season with their only losses coming against a pair of 10-win teams in Boise State and Navy. They beat a Pac-12 opponent outright as a road underdog in Colorado, 30-23.
I’ll back the better running team and the more motivated team here in the Falcons. It’s the first bowl for Air Force since 2016, so they are excited to be here. They average 293 rushing yards per game, which ranks 3rd in the nation. And they’re up against an awful Washington State defense that gives up 31.4 points and 457 yards per game, including 170 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry.
Washington State absolutely never sees the triple-option, and they certainly do not have the personnel to prepare for it in bowl practices. Their players won’t be excited to be playing in the Cheez-It Bowl this year after winning 10 games and getting to play in the Alamo Bowl last year. And they won’t be excited trying to prepare to face the triple-option because they won’t be looking forward to getting cut blocked the whole game.
Air Force does boast a really good defense that gives up just 19.7 points per game this year. They are holding opponents to nearly 8 points per game less than their season averages. The Falcons only give up 208 passing yards per game as well. And one of the big reasons Air Force is so improved this season is because they actually have a passing game, averaging 131 passing yards per game and 13.8 per attempt.
Mike Leach is not a good bowl coach, either. He is 1-4 ATS as the coach of Washington State and 1-8 ATS in his last nine bowl games dating back to his time at Texas Tech. Pac-12 teams are just 1-5 ATSin the last six Cheez-It Bowls, and Pac-12 teams are 3-17-1 ATS in their last 21 bowl games coming into this season. The Falcons are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 non-conference games. The Cougars are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Take Air Force Friday.
|12-27-19||Oklahoma State v. Texas A&M -5.5||Top||21-24||Loss||-101||14 h 28 m||Show|
20* Texas A&M/Oklahoma State Texas Bowl No-Brainer on Texas A&M -5.5
I like Texas A&M quite a bit in the Texas Bowl Friday. The Aggies are perhaps the best 7-5 team in the country, and Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy even acknowledged it saying the same thing leading up to this game. I know he was doing it for gamesmanship reasons, but he’s not wrong.
Indeed, all five of Texas A&M’s losses this season came to teams that are ranked inside the Top 10 in Jeff Sagarin’s power ratings. They lost to three #1 teams at the time they played them in Clemson, Alabama and LSU. They also lost to Georgia and Auburn.
The good news for Texas A&M is that Oklahoma State is nowhere near the Top 10. The Cowboys only beat two bowl teams en route to an 8-4 finish in Kansas State and Iowa State. They were fortunate to beat West Virginia as they managed just 285 total yards on the Mountaineers in their second-to-last game of the season. And they were blasted by 18 at home by Oklahoma in their season finale while amassing only 335 total yards.
Texas A&M is 7-0 against non-Top 10 teams while winning by a whopping 25.4 points per game this season. The Aggies have the edge defensively in this matchup. They give up just 22.7 points per game and 341 yards per game on the season. Oklahoma State has the much worse defense, yielding 27 points per game and 418 yards per game.
I believe the Aggies come in playing with a chip on their shoulder. They finished the season with two road losses at Georgia and at LSU. They want to end their season on a winning note, and Jimbo Fisher 6-2 in his career in bowl games, including last season’s 52-13 dismantling of NC State.
Plays against any team (Oklahoma State) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (21-28 PPG) after seven-plus games, after a loss by 17 points or more are 53-19 (73.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Aggies are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite. Texas A&M is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 non-conference games. Bet Texas A&M Friday.
|12-27-19||North Carolina -4.5 v. Temple||55-13||Win||100||8 h 38 m||Show|
15* UNC/Temple Military Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on UNC -4.5
The North Carolina Tar Heels are excited to be playing in the Military Bowl. They won their final two games of the season to get to 6-6 and qualify for their first bowl since 2016. They certainly want to send Mack Brown out a winner in his first season back to coaching because his players love him. I know I’m going to get a max motivated team here, and Brown is 13-8 in bowl games in his career.
No question UNC was better than its 6-6 record would indicate this season. In fact, all six of their losses came by 7 points or less. That includes their 1-point loss to Clemson. They were the only team in the country to take Clemson down to the wire this year. They have an explosive offense that puts up 31.2 points and 469 yards per game. They only gave up 382 yards per game defensively, outgaining opponents by 87 yards per game.
Temple went 8-4 this season, but their only significant wins all came at home. They lost on the road to Buffalo by 16, to SMU by 24 and to Cincinnati by 2. They were also blasted at home by UCF by 42 points. Their non-conference wins over Georgia Tech and Maryland certainly don’t look nearly as good now as they did at the beginning of the season.
I definitely to not trust Temple head coach Rod Carey in bowl games. Carey is 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS lifetime in bowl games as a head coach. His teams are losing by 25 points per game straight up on average, and failing to cover the spread by 18 points per game on average. Favorites are 9-2 SU & 7-4 ATS in the last 11 Military Bowls.
Teams with three or fewer wins the previous season (UNC 2-9) have gone 17-3 ATS the last four seasons in bowl games. The Tar Heels are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite. The Owls are 2-5 ATS in their last seven neutral site games. Roll with North Carolina Friday.
|12-26-19||Miami-FL v. Louisiana Tech +6.5||Top||0-14||Win||100||146 h 23 m||Show|
25* Pre-New Year's Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Louisiana Tech +6.5
Louisiana Tech is one of only two teams entering the bowl season with five consecutive bowl wins the last five years; Wisconsin is the other. LA Tech head coach Skip Holtz is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in bowl games at LA Tech with four of those wins coming by 17 points or more. He clearly has this whole bowl prep thing figured out, pushing the right buttons with his players.
LA Tech will have no problem getting motivated to face a storied program like Miami. Not to mention, this will essentially feel like a home game for LA Tech considering it will be played in Shreveport, Louisiana. Motivation and location will be on their side.
A program like Miami cannot be excited to be playing in the Independence Bowl. Miami ended the season with two huge upset losses to Florida International as 21-point favorites and to Duke as 8-point favorites. They also nearly lost to Central Michigan as 30.5-point favorites earlier in the season. Head coach Manny Diaz clearly isn’t getting his team’s attention as they aren’t responding to him. It was a bad hire, plain and simple. And many of his players may be sitting out either due to injury or to prepare for the NFL.
Louisiana Tech probably would have gone 11-1 this season if not for suspension to two of their best players. QB Jamar Smith and WR Adrian Hardy both out out in their losses to Marshall and UAB, which likely cost them the C-USA title. Both returned for the season finale and led the Bulldogs to 41 points in a win over UTSA. And now the Bulldogs want to cap off their season on a positive note with 10 wins and an upset victory over Miami.
Miami is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games off an upset loss to a conference opponent as a favorite of 6 points or more. LA Tech is 6-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games over the past three seasons. The Bulldogs are 8-0 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive ATS losses over the last three years. LA Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last seven bowl games. Miami is 1-7 ATS in its last eight bowl games. The Hurricanes are 1-7 ATS in their last eight neutral site games as a favorite. Roll with Louisiana Tech Thursday.
|12-24-19||BYU -1.5 v. Hawaii||34-38||Loss||-110||102 h 24 m||Show|
15* BYU/Hawaii Christmas Eve ANNIHILATOR on BYU -1.5
The BYU Cougars played a much tougher schedule than Hawaii this year. They beat the likes of USC, Tennessee, Boise State and Utah State, which are four teams that are better than anyone Hawaii has beaten this year.
Hawaii lost badly to Boise State twice losing by 22 and 21 points. The Rainbow Warriors are 9-4 this season, but only two of those wins came against bowl teams in Nevada and San Diego State, which are two teams that aren’t very good anyway. I just think this is a big step up in class for Hawaii and they have failed every time they’ve stepped up in class.
BYU owns Hawaii, going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Cougars will take this bowl game seriously as it is a great destination for them. Plus, the Cougars are a veteran team with grown men with the way thinks work at BYU. They won’t be distracted at all in Hawaii.
BYU has been through three different quarterbacks this year. If they had stayed healthy all season, they probably would have finished even better than 7-5. But they finally have some stability at the position now with QB Zach Wilson starting the final few games of the year, and he’ll make the start here.
I’ll gladly back the better defense and the more physical team that played the tougher schedule laying a short number in this matchup. BYU gave up just 24.4 points per game this season, including 22.0 points per game on the road. Hawaii gave up 31.7 points per game this season, including 32.6 points per game and 461.9 yards per game at home. BYU will get key stops, while Hawaii will not, and their physicality will be tested big-time.
Hawaii is 1-9 ATS off a road loss over the last three seasons. I think the Rainbow Warriors could still be deflated from losing to Boise State in the MWC Title game. Hawaii is 0-6 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards per game over the last two years. Hawaii is 1-8 ATS vs. good offensive teams averaging 5.9 or more yards per play over the last two seasons. The Rainbow Warriors are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Cougars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. MWC opponents. Take BYU Tuesday.
|12-23-19||Packers v. Vikings -5||Top||23-10||Loss||-105||24 h 47 m||Show|
20* Packers/Vikings ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Minnesota -5
The Minnesota Vikings want to stay alive in the NFC North title race. To do so, they will have to beat the Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football. They will be highly motivated because of it, plus they want revenge from a 16-21 loss at Green Bay in their first meeting this season.
That was certainly a misleading final as the Vikings deserved to win the game. They outgained the Packers 421 to 335 total yards but committed four turnovers. One was a pick in the end zone when they were going in for the potential game-winning score in the 4th quarter. They haven’t forgotten, and now it’s their turn for payback.
The Packers are one of the most fraudulent 11-3 teams I’ve ever seen. They have only outscored their opponents by a total of 47 points on the season. To compare, Minnesota has outscored its opponents by 119 points on the year. Now that’s the sign of an elite team. Green Bay has simply been fortunate in close games, going 7-1 in one-score games this season.
Minnesota is 10-4, but three of its losses have come by one score, and the other was a 10-point loss. Eight of their 10 wins have come by double-digits, so they are every bit as good as their record, if not better. And it means they know how to get margin when they need it, so I’m not concerned at all about laying the 5 points here.
Another way to see how fraudulent the Packers are is to compare their yardage differential, not just point differential. The Packers are actually getting outgained by 34.5 yards per game on the season. They rank 21st in total offense and 22nd in total defense. I am pretty certain I’ve never seen an 11-3 team that ranks worse than 20th in both categories. The Vikings are 10th in total offense and 14th in total defense, outgaining teams by 33.7 yards per game.
Plays against road underdogs or PK (Green Bay) - a hot team having won eight or more of their last 10 games are 40-16 (71.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays on favorites (Minnesota) - after having won three of their last four games when playing a hot team that’s won eight or more of their last 10 games are 29-9 (76.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
Green Bay is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Packers are 3-11 ATS off one or more consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons.
Mike Zimmer is 22-8 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of Minnesota. The Vikings are 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 home games. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Minnesota. Bet the Vikings Monday.
|12-23-19||Marshall +17.5 v. Central Florida||Top||25-48||Loss||-109||73 h 54 m||Show|
20* Marshall/UCF Gasparilla Bowl No-Brainer on Marshall +17.5
Marshall is very familiar with the Gasparilla Bowl as they will be playing in it for the second straight year and their third time in five years. They are happy to be playing a team the caliber of UCF, so motivation certainly won’t be in question for them.
I do question UCF’s motivation. The Knights played in a New Year’s 6 Bowl each of the last two seasons facing Auburn in the Peach Bowl and LSU in the Fiesta Bowl. This Gasparilla Bowl is a big step down in prestige, and they cannot possibly be motivated to face Marshall this postseason.
UCF has been overvalued all season and especially down the stretch. The Knights are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall. They have been consistently laying too many points, and they are again here against Marshall.
Marshall has been a postseason juggernaut. Indeed, the Thundering Herd are 12-1 SU & 12-1 ATS in their last 13 bowl games overall. Head coach Doc Holiday is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in bowl games at Marshall, so he clearly takes these games seriously and knows the right buttons to push to get his teams ready. The Thundering Herd have won those six bowl games by an average of 12.8 points per game.
The Knights are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite. UCF is 1-4 ATS in its last neutral site games. The Thundering Herd are 7-0 ATS in their last seven bowl games. Marshall is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games on grass. The Thundering Herd are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog. Roll with Marshall Monday.
|12-22-19||Chiefs -6 v. Bears||Top||26-3||Win||100||12 h 37 m||Show|
20* Chiefs/Bears NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Kansas City -6
The Kansas City Chiefs have been playing defense like the ’85 Bears here down the stretch. That’s a scary proposition for the rest of the NFL when you consider the Chiefs have arguably the best offense in the NFL when healthy. The Chiefs are only giving up 11.3 points per game over their last four games.
Now Kansas City goes up against an awful Chicago offense that ranks 28th in the NFL in averaging just 298.4 yards per game. The Bears are also scoring just 18.3 points per game, and I just don’t see how they are going to keep up with the Chiefs in this one.
And that’s even if the Bears actually show up. I could see them packing it in this week after suffering their dream-crushing loss to the division rival Packers last week. That loss eliminated them from playoff contention, and I usually love fading teams the week after they’ve been eliminated from the playoffs.
The Chiefs are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with all four wins coming by at least 7 points, so they should have no problem beating this hapless Bears team by a TD or more. They went on the road and beat both the Chargers by 7 and the Patriots by 7. And they also beat the Raiders by 31 and the Broncos by 20 at home. They are hitting on all cylinders right now.
The Bears have some injuries that will prevent them from being competitive also. They are without LB Danny Trevethan, DE Akiem Hicks, OT Bobbie Massie and WR Taylor Gabriel. And it’s a pretty easy choice here to back Patrick Mahomes over Mitch Trubisky, who just called out his coach last week and there’s certainly some divisiveness in their locker room right now.
The Chiefs are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 road games. Kansas City is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games off an ATS win. Chicago is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall. The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. Take the Chiefs Sunday.
|12-22-19||Cardinals +9.5 v. Seahawks||Top||27-13||Win||100||8 h 42 m||Show|
20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on Arizona Cardinals +9.5
The Seattle Seahawks are the most fraudulent 11-3 team I’ve ever seen. They have only outscored opponents by a total of 26 points on the season. They are 10-1 in games decide by one score, so they have been lucky in close games. Only once have they won a game by more than 8 points all season.
A lot of people will tell you it’s because Russell Wilson has the ‘clutch gene’. But Wilson was just 31-33 in one-score games in his career prior to this season. Getting Arizona catching more than one score here is a tremendous value that we’re going to capitalize on Sunday.
The Seahawks have a ton of injuries right now that are holding them back, too. On defense, they’ll be without DE Jadeveon Clowney, NT Al Woods and S Quandre Diggs. They have key injuries on all three levels of their defense. Offensively, they will be without LT Duane Brown, and they just lost star WR Josh Gordon to a suspension.
The Seahawks can afford to lose this game and they’d still win the division if they beat the 49ers next week. That makes this a huge lookahead spot for them. Everything will be on the line next week, not this week. And we’ve seen the Seahawks throw up some duds all season at home. They only beat the Bengals by 1, lost to the Saints, lost to the Ravens, only beat the Rams by 1, and needed OT to beat the Bucs. They haven’t won a home game by more than 7 points yet this season.
I can’t give the Seahawks much respect because they don’t deserve it with how poor their defense is. Seattle ranks 27th in the NFL in total defense, giving up 378.3 yards per game. Arizona just hung 38 points on Cleveland last week and will be able to move the ball and score points on this Seattle D. The back door will always be open if we need it.
The Cardinals have done their best work on the road this season, where they are 4-1-1 ATS. And that one push was when they led San Francisco the entire way until the final seconds and gave up a lateral return TD that turned a lead into a 10-point loss as 10-point dogs. They only lost by 6 at Baltimore, beat the Bengals and Giants outright, and lost by 3 at Tampa. Their only blowout road loss came to the Saints.
Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team is 9-1 SU & 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The Cardinals are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Seattle. Arizona is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games with a total of 49.5 or higher.
Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Seattle) - after having won six or seven of their last eight games, a team that wins 75% or more of their games in the 2nd half of the season are 34-13 (72.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Cardinals Sunday.
|12-22-19||Saints v. Titans +3||38-28||Loss||-102||4 h 17 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Tennessee Titans +3
The Tennessee Titans would be out of the playoffs if their season ended today. They are tied with the Steelers for the 6th seed, but currently lose out on the tiebreaker. They are in must-win mode this week, and have been since Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback. And they’ve delivered.
The Titans are 6-2 SU & 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. Last week’s loss to Houston was misleading. A receiver dropped a Tannehill pass on the goal line that was intercepted and returned 90 yards to set up an easy score for the Texans. It was the difference in the game in a 24-21 win by Houston.
Tannehill is completing 71.5% of his passes with a 17-to-6 TD/INT ratio and a whopping 9 yards per attempt. The Titans having the threat of the pass with Tannehill and his underrated targets has opened things up for the running game here in the second half of the season. They have averaged 174 rushing yards per game in their last six games.
The Saints will be working on a short week here after playing on Monday Night Football. It’s definitely a potential letdown spot after Drew Brees set the all-time passing TD record and the highest completion percentage every in a single game. The Colts simply did not show up after their deflating loss to the Bucs the previous week that pretty much knocked them out of contention.
The Titans will be able to exploit some injuries on the Saints’ defense that the Colts could not. The Saints lost top pass rusher Marcus Davenport and top run stuffer Sheldon Rankins to injuries two weeks ago against the 49ers. They have injuries along the offensive line and in the secondary of note as well.
New Orleans is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 road games after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games coming in. The Saints are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite. The Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog.
Plays on home teams off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, a team that wins 51% to 60% of their games playing a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season are 28-8 ATS since 1983. Roll with the Titans Sunday.
|12-21-19||Rams v. 49ers -6.5||Top||31-34||Loss||-108||11 h 36 m||Show|
20* Rams/49ers NFC West No-Brainer on San Francisco -6.5
I was on the Atlanta Falcons against the 49ers last week as my 25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR. I recognized it was a huge flat spot for them after playing the Packers, Ravens & Saints in three consecutive weeks, and with games against the division rival Rams and Seahawks on deck. And the 49ers lost outright.
I think we will look back and see that was a loss they needed to get humbled. They could afford that loss, it didn’t hurt them at all. Now they can’t afford another loss. It’s simple for the 49ers now. Win out and they’ll be the #1 seed in the NFC. They are in control of their own destiny, and I know they’ll put their best foot forward today because of it, and it will be good enough to beat the Rams by 7 points or more.
The Rams suffered a devastating 21-44 loss to the Cowboys last week. Now they have about a 3% chance to make the playoffs. They need to win out and have the Vikings lose out to make the playoffs. It’s simply not going to happen, they know it, I know it, we all know it. So I don’t expect a very good effort from the Rams here after they just had their dreams crushed with that loss to Dallas.
It wasn’t just any loss, either. The Cowboys throttled them 44-21. And the Rams got two garbage touchdowns late in the 4th quarter to make the score appear better than it really was. Their defense was shredded for 475 total yards, and their offense only managed 289 total yards with the majority of that coming on their final two drives of the game.
Jared Goff was playing awful before he hit his thumb on a Cowboys’ helmet. He became check down Charlie after that. I think his thumb is a real problem that’s not being talked about much at all. Meanwhile, the 49ers are expected to get some key players back from injury this week, including CB Richard Sherman.
San Francisco beat the Rams 20-7 on the road as 3-point dogs in their first meeting this season. That game was even more of a blowout than the final score showed. The 49ers held the Rams to just 10 first downs and 165 total yards. They sacked Goff four times and pressured him 22 more times while limiting him to 56 passing yards on 24 attempts, an average of just 2.3 yards per attempt.
When the Rams have stepped up in class this season, they have gotten throttled. They had that 20-7 loss to the 49ers, that 21-44 loss to the Cowboys, and don’t forget they lost 6-45 to Baltimore a few weeks back. When Goff is pressured, he folds, and we’ve seen it time and time again. The Rams simply can’t hang with the top teams in the NFL, and they won’t hang with the 49ers this week, either.
The Rams are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games as underdogs. Los Angeles is 22-46 ATS in its last 68 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Saturday games. San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record. The 49ers are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Bet the 49ers Saturday.
|12-21-19||Washington v. Boise State UNDER 49||38-7||Win||100||30 h 57 m||Show|
15* Saturday Bowl Total DOMINATOR on Washington/Boise State UNDER 49
This game between Washington and Boise State will be played close to the vest. Washington coach Chris Petersen has said he will retire following this game. And he takes on his former team in Boise State. This game means a lot to both teams, and I think defense wins out.
These are two very good defenses as Washington allows just 20.4 points per game this season, while Boise State gives up only 20.6 points per game. Washington held opponents to 8.0 points per game less than their season averages this season, while Boise State limited foes to 6.6 points per game less than their season averages.
Helping out this UNDER will be two key players who are sitting out for Washington. LT Trey Adams will sit out to prepare for the NFL. But the bigger loss is TE Hunter Bryant, who will also sit out to get ready for the pros. Bryant is Washington’s leading receiver with 52 receptions for 825 yards on the season. He will be missed in the passing game.
Boise State is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven vs. good teams that outscore opponents by 10-plus points per game. The UNDER is 9-2 in Broncos last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 6-1 in Huskies last seven neutral site games as a favorite. Boise State is 9-1 UNDER after having won six or seven of its last eight games over the last two seasons. Washington is 8-1 UNDER in road games off a conference game over the last two years. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|12-21-19||SMU -3 v. Florida Atlantic||Top||28-52||Loss||-120||27 h 20 m||Show|
20* Bowl BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on SMU -3
I question Florida Atlantic’s motivation. The Owls lost head coach Lane Kiffin to Ole Miss, and he took some of his staff with him. And the players know that Willie Taggart will be their coach next year. I don’t expect them to take this bowl game too seriously. Plus, they have to stay at home instead of going to a destination bowl, which I look at as a negative. Oddsmakers are giving the Owls too many points for home-field advantage.
SMU was really close to being 12-0 this season. The Mustangs’ only two losses both came on the road to Memphis and Navy by 6 and 7 points, respectively. Those are two 10-win teams. You know that this veteran team that returned 16 starters wants to end their season on a high not with 11 wins. They will be motivated.
SMU played a schedule that ranked 75th in the country while FAU played a schedule that ranked 115th. That’s a 40-spot difference in strength of schedule. The Mustangs are the most battle-tested team by far, and FAU doesn’t have any wins against a team the caliber of SMU this season. They lost to Ohio State in the opener by 24, then were thumped by UCF 14-48 at home, a fellow AAC team with SMU. The Mustangs beat North Texas 49-27, a fellow C-USA team to FAU.
Sonny Dykes is 14-4 ATS in road games in non-conference games in all games he has coached. FAU is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games after allowing 125 or fewer passing yards in its previous game. We’re getting the better team with the better motivation laying only 3 points in this bowl game, which is a huge discount. Bet SMU Saturday.
Note: I took SMU -3 before the suspensions came out for FAU. I still like SMU up to -10. The suspensions are worth at least 7 points. FAU will be without its top 3 receivers, including TE Harrison Bryant, the Mackey Award winner for the nation's best TE. FAU doesn't have another played eligible who caught more than 15 passes this season. Leading tackler Keke Leroy will be missed. He had 101 tackles, five forced fumbles and three INT this season. And leading rusher Malcolm Davidson (711 yards) is out.
|12-20-19||Kent State +6 v. Utah State||Top||51-41||Win||100||76 h 33 m||Show|
20* Kent State/Utah State Frisco Bowl No-Brainer on Kent State +6
Kent State will be playing in just their 2nd bowl game since 1972. They are excited to be here, especially when you look at the gauntlet they had to go through to get here. They had to face Arizona State, Auburn & Wisconsin all on the road in non-conference play.
The Golden Flashes opened 3-6 before winning their final three games all in upset fashion over Buffalo, Ball State & Eastern Michigan. 6-6 teams off a SU win as an underdog are 70% ATS since 2000. This bowl trend makes sense to me because these teams had to pull an upset in their final game to get here, so they clearly want to be here. And Kent State just pulled three straight upsets. They have been undervalued all season with an 8-4 ATS mark. And I think they’re being undervalued again here.
Utah State went from winning 11 games last year to going just 7-5 this year and having to play Kent State in the Frisco Bowl. I don’t think they’re too excited to be here. And clearly their players aren’t taking it too seriously. QB Jordan Love, RB Gerold Bright & WR Sean Carter were cited for pot possession over the weekend.
Love is a potential first-round draft pick and has stated he will be skipping his senior season. But he has struggled this year with a 17-to-16 TD/INT ratio. Bright is their leading rusher with 827 yards and 8 touchdowns. Early indications are all three players will play, otherwise we’d see a much bigger line move. But it’s not going to matter. If would be an added bonus if they sit.
The only four teams Utah State beat by more than 6 points this year were Stony Brook, Colorado State, New Mexico and Nevada. Only one of those was a bowl team in Nevada, and they aren’t very good. Utah State gave up 35 points per game over their final six games and have a leaky defense. Kent State has scored at least 30 points in five of its last six and will expose that leaky defense.
Sean Lewis is 6-0 ATS in road games against poor defensive teams that allow 425 or more yards per game as the coach of Kent State. Kent State is 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 250 or more passing yards per game over the last three seasons. The Golden Flashes are 8-1 ATS when the total is 63 or higher over the last two seasons. Bowl teams that won three or fewer games the previous season have gone 16-2 ATS over the last three years in bowl games. Bet Kent State Friday.
|12-20-19||Buffalo -6.5 v. Charlotte||31-9||Win||100||16 h 28 m||Show|
15* Buffalo/Charlotte 2019 Bowl Season Opener on Buffalo -6.5
The Buffalo Bulls are in search of their first bowl win in program history. The Charlotte 49ers are just happy to be in their first ever bowl game. I think the Bulls are the superior team in this matchup, and the weather conditions with near-30 mile per hour winds in the Bahamas will favor the Bulls.
I would argue that Buffalo was the best team in the MAC even though they didn’t win the MAC title. They went 5-3 in MAC play with all three losses called into question. They outgained MAC champ Miami Ohio by by 133 yards but lost the turnover battle 4-0 in their loss to the Redhawks. They only lost 20-21 to Ohio as 3-point dogs despite outgaining the Bobcats by 37 yards. And they blew a 27-6 lead to Kent State in the final eight minutes to lost 27-30.
That’s how close the Bulls were to being 8-0 in MAC play. Not to mention, they beat Temple 38-22 as 14-point dogs in non-conference, and actually led Penn State at halftime on the road and hung right with the Nittany Lions in the stat department. They actually outgained Penn State by 72 yards in a misleading final.
Buffalo comes in having scored 43-plus points in four of their last five games overall. The Bulls rely on their ground attack that has produced two 1,000-yard rushers. They rush for 254 yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry. With the high winds in the Bahamas, the team that runs the ball better will win and cover this game.
Charlotte also has a solid ground attack at 210 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry. However, it’s on defense where Buffalo has the huge advantage. The Bulls only allow 95 rushing yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry. Charlotte gives up a whopping 193 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry. The 49ers have the better passing attack, but that will be a non-factor in this weather.
Buffalo is 10-1 ATS after having won two of their last three games over the last three seasons. The Bulls are 7-0 ATS off three consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers over the last three seasons. Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall. Charlotte is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 non-conference games. Take Buffalo Friday.
|12-16-19||Colts +10 v. Saints||Top||7-34||Loss||-120||50 h 38 m||Show|
20* Colts/Saints ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Indianapolis +10
It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Indianapolis Colts this week. They have lost five of their last six games overall. They lost the last three weeks despite holding a second half lead in all three games. That’s because they have been outscored 31-0 in the fourth quarter in their losses to the Titans, Texans & Bucs.
Four of those five losses came by 4 points or less. The only one they lost by more than that was their misleading 17-31 loss to Tennessee. Indianapolis was attempting a FG that would have given them the lead with only five minutes left, but it was blocked and returned for a TD. That 10-point swing was the difference in the game. The Colts actually outgained the Titans 391 to 292 for the game.
The Saints are coming off the type of loss that could beat them twice. They lost a 46-48 shootout to the 49ers at home on a last-second field goal. They went for two instead of kicking the extra point early in the game, and it probably cost them the game. I believe this is now a huge flat spot for the Saints, who have basically given home-field advantage to the 49ers now.
New Orleans has some real big injuries that are getting overlooked on defense right now. It’s a big reason the 49ers scored 48 points and gained 516 total yards on them last week. They lost pass rusher Marcus Davenport and run stuffer Sheldon Rankins to injuries last week against the 49ers. They were playing without LB’s AJ Klein and Kiko Alonso last week and both are questionable again this week. This once-stout New Orleans defense has started to show a ton of holes in recent weeks.
New Orleans is fortunate to be 10-3 this season. The Saints are 7-1 in one-possession games this season. Seven of their 10 wins have come by 8 points or fewer. I think there’s tremendous value with the Colts catching double-digits because of it.
Plays on road underdogs or PK (Indianapolis) - off a close loss by 3 points or less, in the last four weeks of the regular season are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS since 1983.
The Colts are 10-2 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 350 or more yards per game over the last three years. New Orleans is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games after having won six or seven of its last eight games. The Colts are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game. Indianapolis is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 vs. a team with a winning record. New Orleans is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 home games. Bet the Colts Monday.
|12-15-19||Falcons +11.5 v. 49ers||Top||29-22||Win||100||27 h 28 m||Show|
25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons +11.5
This is a massive letdown spot for the 49ers. They have played three straight games against three of the best teams in the NFL. They beat the Packers at home before losing to the Ravens on a last-second field goal on the road. Then they got a last-second field goal of their own to beat the Saints on the road last week.
That was a 48-46 shootout and it had to take a lot out of them. Remember, they stayed in Florida last week so they’ve been gone from their families for two weeks. I usually like fading teams when they come back home off long road trips because there are a lot of distractions they must deal with back home. And it’s a sandwich spot for them with two huge division games coming up against the Rams and Seahawks the next two weeks.
The 49ers suffered some key injuries in that win over the Saints, too. They lost center Weston Richburg for the season. They also lost DE Dee Ford and CB Richard Sherman to hamstring injuries. They have a handful of other guys questionable this week, including do-it-all FB Kyle Juszcyk. They are in about as poor a shape injury-wise as they’ve been all season, which is saying a lot for a team that has been banged up all year.
The Atlanta Falcons continue to battle week in and week out. They have won three of their last five games and have been competitive in four of them. They beat the Saints on the road and took the Saints to the wire at home. They blew out the Panthers on the road and at home. They have outgained four of their last five opponents.
The Falcons got back Julio Jones and Austin Hooper last week and promptly put up 40 points and 461 total yards on the Panthers in a 40-20 win. They will relish this opportunity to face the top team in the NFC and former coordinator Kyle Shanahan. The 49ers can afford a loss because basically their season is going to come down to their Week 17 game against the Seahawks. I just think this is a really bad spot for the 49ers, especially asking them to lay double-digits here.
Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (San Francisco) - after having won six or seven of their last eight games, a top team that wins 75% or more of their games in the second half of the season are 33-11 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons. The 49ers are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite. Bet the Falcons Sunday.
|12-15-19||Rams -111 v. Cowboys||21-44||Loss||-111||22 h 49 m||Show|
15* Rams/Cowboys NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles PK
The Dallas Cowboys just seem content to play bad football knowing that none of these games matter for them. The only game that matters is next week against the Philadelphia Eagles. The winner of that game will likely win the NFC East. The Cowboys have lost three straight games coming in, including upset losses to the Bills and Bears the last two weeks.
The Los Angeles Rams simply need this game more right now. The Rams are 8-5 and one game behind the Vikings for the 6th and final playoff spot in the NFC. They really need to win out if they want to make the playoffs. They’re playing like a hungry team, too.
The Rams beat Arizona 34-7 on the road two weeks ago and racked up 549 total yards while limiting the Cardinals to just 198 yards. And last week they won 28-12 at home over the Seahawks. They gained 455 total yards on the Seahawks and held them to just 308 yards. They also held the Seahawks without an offensive touchdown as their only TD came on a pick-6.
Jared Goff and this Rams offense is now hitting on all cylinders now that he has his full compliment of weapons. And they are shutting teams down defensively. I like the matchup for the Rams because stopping the run is the key to stopping the Cowboys. The Rams rank 4th in the NFL in giving up just 3.8 yards per carry.
The Rams are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team with a losing record. The Rams are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games off two straight wins over division opponents. Los Angeles is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games overall. Dallas is 1-7 ATS in its last eight against a team with a winning record.
I know the Rams will show up this week, and I’m convinced the Cowboys are looking ahead to their game against the Eagles next week from what I’ve seen from them. We’ll back the more motivated team here this afternoon. Take the Rams Sunday.
|12-15-19||Browns v. Cardinals +3||24-38||Win||100||21 h 29 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Arizona Cardinals +3
The Cleveland Browns should not be favored on the road here against the Arizona Cardinals. The Browns have a laundry list of injuries on their offensive and defensive lines that will make it very difficult for them to beat the Cardinals this week.
Cleveland is coming off a misleading 27-19 home win over the awful Cincinnati Bengals. They deserved to lose that game, but the Bengals gave it to them. Cincinnati racked up 453 total yards and held Cleveland to just 323 yards in the game. But the Bengals either turned it over on downs or settled for field goals too many times in the red zone. To give up 453 yards to the Bengals is a bad sign for this Cleveland defense.
Arizona hung tough at home against Pittsburgh last week in a 17-23 loss. The difference in that game was a special teams touchdown for the Steelers. And after facing three great defenses in a row in the 49ers, Rams and Steelers, Kyler Murray and company are ready to bust out here against this soft Cleveland defense this week.
Arizona is 25-11 ATS in its last 36 home games off a home loss. The Browns are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing record. Wrong team favored here. Take the Cardinals Sunday.
|12-15-19||Texans v. Titans -3||Top||24-21||Loss||-102||18 h 25 m||Show|
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Tennessee Titans -3
The Tennessee Titans are playing as well as anyone in the NFL since Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback. They are 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. This run has moved them into a first place tie with the Houston Texans in the AFC South. Now they have their chance to pull ahead as they host the Texans today.
If the Titans were going to have a letdown, it would have been last week. It didn’t happen. The Titans handled their business by crushing the Raiders 42-21 on the road. That game was every bit as big of a blowout as the final score showed. The Titans racked up 552 total yards on the Raiders as their offense continues to thrive.
Tannehill is completing 73.4% of his passes for 1,993 yards with a 15-to-5 TD/INT ratio and a 118.5 QBR this season. Derrick Henry has really gotten going on the ground as the Titans have rushed for at least 121 yards in five straight games and an average of 176 rushing yards per game during this stretch.
Now the Titans should continue to have success against a soft Houston defense that simply hasn’t been very good without JJ Watt. The Texans gave up 448 total yards to the Patriots two weeks ago and 38 points and 391 yards to a bad Broncos offense last week. They give up 23.8 points per game on the season and are worst than that of late. The Titans only allow 19.6 points per game on the year and clearly have the better defense in this matchup.
Tennessee is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less. Houston is 1-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons. The Titans are 6-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 6.0 yards per play or more over the last two years. The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. Roll with the Titans Sunday.
|12-15-19||Broncos +10 v. Chiefs||3-23||Loss||-108||18 h 24 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Broncos +10
I always like fading teams off an upset win over the New England Patriots. That’s the case for the Chiefs, who were aided by the refs in their 23-16 win at New England last week. Now the Chiefs have clinched the AFC West and this is a massive letdown spot for them. They got their revenge on the Patriots from their playoff loss last year, and now they’ll relax.
We saw the same thing happen to the Houston Texans last week. Off their upset win over the Patriots, they promptly lost outright as nearly double-digit favorites at home to the Denver Broncos. Now the Broncos get to play the role of spoiler again and they come in here with some momentum.
Indeed, the Broncos throttled the Texans 38-24. It was an even bigger blowout than that as the Broncos led by as many as 28 points. They racked up 391 total yards on the Texans, and rookie QB Drew Lock was brilliant. He went 22-of-27 passing for 309 yards and three touchdowns with one interception. Now Lock should continue to have success against his soft Kansas City defense.
Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Denver) - after covering the spread in three of their last four games, a team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
The Chiefs have consistency been overvalued at home here of late. They have lost three of their last five home games outright. The Broncos are 9-2 ATS after covering the spread in two of their last three games over the last two seasons. Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. The Broncos only have three double-digit losses this season. Bet the Broncos Sunday.
|12-14-19||Army v. Navy -10||Top||7-31||Win||100||7 h 32 m||Show|
20* Army/Navy CBS No-Brainer on Navy -10
The Navy Midshipmen have a chance to win 10 games with a victory over Army. And you can bet they want revenge from three straight losses to the Black Knights by seven points or less. It’s time for the Midshipmen to return to their dominance in this series.
It has been a tremendous bounce-back season for Navy. They are 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS in their 11 games this year, outscoring opponents by 15.1 points per game. Their offense has lit up opponents for 39.3 points per game, and their defense is greatly improved in allowing just 24.2 points per game.
Army has come back down to early this season with a 5-7 record. They will not be going to a bowl game after losing by 21 at Hawaii in their final game of the season, which was a poor showing against a Rainbow Warriors team that didn’t have anything to play for. Army had everything to play for as they needed a win there to make a bowl game. They wouldn't get in at 6-7 now.
Army went 5-7 despite playing the 124th-ranked schedule in the country according to Sagarin. Navy played a much tougher slate in the AAC as their schedule ranked 73rd. Navy is also 18 points better than Army on a neutral field according to Sagarin, and I have to agree he’s pretty close. That’s why I’m laying the double-digits here with the Midshipmen, among the other motivational reasons.
Navy is holding opponents to just 110 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry. They are holding foes to 63 yards per game and 0.9 per carry less than their season average. Army is giving up 4.2 per carry this season and hasn’t faced many good rushing attacks. Army is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as a neutral field dog of 7.5 to 14 points. Bet Navy Saturday.
|12-12-19||Jets +17 v. Ravens||Top||21-42||Loss||-115||8 h 54 m||Show|
20* Jets/Ravens AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York +17
The Baltimore Ravens are the most public team in the NFL right now due to their nine-game winning streak and their 11-2 record, which is the best in the AFC. This line has gotten out of control as a result, and there’s clearly value on the Jets catching more than two touchdowns tonight.
The Ravens are coming off two very physical games against San Francisco and Buffalo. They needed a last-second field goal to beat the 49ers at home, and they were fortunate to cover by getting a red zone stand in the closing seconds of a 24-17 win over the Bills as 6.5-point favorites last week.
I think this is a letdown spot for the Ravens now. Not to mention they will be without two starting offensive linemen in C Matt Skura and T Ronnie Stanley. Leading receiver Mark Andrews is battling a knee injury. QB Lamar Jackson just showed up on the injury report this week with a quad injury, so I think the Ravens will be careful with him. And without Jackson at 100% and the whole playbook available, it will be tough for the Ravens to cover this massive spread.
I like the fact that the Ravens know they can lose this game and still be in 1st place in the AFC. Knowing they have that in their hip pocket will make them not be as motivated as they have been up to this point to put themselves in this enviable position. Meanwhile, the Jets will be treating this game like their Super Bowl with the chance to go toe-to-toe with the top team in the AFC.
It’s not like the Jets are the worst team in the NFL, which is what this line basically indicates. The Jets are actually 4-1 SU in their last five games overall. I know it hasn’t come against the greatest competition, but this team is still battling hard and trying to win every game. Sam Darnold has found a connection with Robby Anderson on offense, and the defense continues playing at a very high level.
The key to stopping the Ravens is stopping the run, and that makes this an excellent matchup for the Jets. New York ranks 2nd in the NFL against the run, giving up just 78.8 rushing yards per game. More importantly, the Jets rank 1st in the league in giving up just 3.0 yards per carry. They have far and away the best rushing defense in the NFL when you look at the numbers as a whole.
Baltimore is 1-9 ATS in home games vs. teams that commit 60-plus penalty yards per game over the last three seasons. The Ravens are 0-6 ATS in home games after covering the spread in four or five of their last six games over the past three seasons. Baltimore is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a losing record. The Ravens are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite. Bet the Jets Thursday.
|12-09-19||Giants +10 v. Eagles||Top||17-23||Win||100||47 h 39 m||Show|
20* Giants/Eagles ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New York +10
The New York Giants would love nothing more than to wreck the Philadelphia Eagles’ season. The Eagles are doing plenty of that on their own, and there’s no way they should be double-digit favorites here against a division rival.
The Eagles are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall. They lost to the Patriots 10-17 at home and to the Seahawks 9-17 at home. And last week was the ultimate embarrassment, giving up 37 points in a loss to the Dolphins as 10-point road favorites. There are problems on the Eagles that aren’t fixable, and especially in their secondary.
The Giants should be motivated here with the return of Eli Manning at quarterback. They want to send their veteran out the right way, and Manning wants to prove that he can still get it done. Playing this soft Eagles secondary will certainly help matters. Plus, the Giants are expected to get back Golden Tate from injury this week to give Manning another weapon.
The Giants are coming off a misleading 13-31 home loss to the Packers. Daniel Jones gave the game away with interceptions as the Giants lost the turnover battle 3-0. But the Giants only gave up 322 total yards to the Packers and actually outshined them by 13 yards in the game.
New York has always been a better road team than home team. The Giants are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games, and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog. New York is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games played on a grass field. The Eagles haven’t beaten the Giants by more than 5 points in any of the last three meetings in Philadelphia. The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Philadelphia is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 home games. Bet the Giants Monday.
|12-08-19||Seahawks v. Rams +1||Top||12-28||Win||100||49 h 3 m||Show|
20* NBC Sunday Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Rams +1
The Seattle Seahawks have the worst point differential (+36) of any 10-2 or better team in the history of the NFL. That’s because they have gone 9-1 in one-score games this year. They have been extremely fortunate in close games and are nowhere near as good as their record as a result. This is more like a 7-5 team at best.
A lot of Seahawks backers will say that Russell Wilson has the ‘clutch gene’ so they should win more close games. That’s simply not true. In fact, coming into this season, Wilson was just 31-33 in one-score games in his career. The fact of the matter is the Seahawks are a fraudulent, fortunate team that is now overvalued due to their record.
The Seahawks were 1.5-point home favorites in their first meeting with the Rams this season. Now they are 1-point road favorites. If you adjust for home-field advantage, which is usually close to a 6-point swing, the Seahawks should be 4.5-point underdogs in the rematch. I think there’s a ton of value getting the Rams as home underdogs tonight.
Keep in mind the Rams deserved to beat the Seahawks in that first meeting. They lost 29-30 only after Greg Zurlein missed a 43-yard field goal in the final seconds that would have won the game for the Rams. Now, Los Angeles wants revenge on the Seahawks, and their season is essentially on the line tonight. The Seahawks can afford to lose this game knowing that they have a later meeting with the 49ers that will likely decide the division champ.
The Rams are as healthy as they’ve been all season as Jared Goff now has his full compliment of weapons on offense. That showed last week as the Rams went into Arizona and won 34-7 against a Cardinals team off their bye week. The Rams racked up 549 total yards in the win while holding the Cardinals to just 198 total yards, outgaining them by 351 yards. Goff went 32-of-43 passing for 424 yards with two touchdowns in the win, and Todd Gurley carried 19 times for 95 yards and a score to prove he is just fine health-wise.
This game means everything to Rams because they have tough road games at Dallas and San Francisco coming up the next two weeks. If they want to make the playoffs, they have to win this game. And they should be fresh after blowing out the Cardinals. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are on a short week here after playing in a grueling, physical 37-30 home win against the Minnesota Vikings on Monday.
The Seahawks are frauds because they rank 24th in total defense in allowing 368.9 yards per game this season. And Goff and the Rams always diced up this defense. They have scored 29 or more points in four straight games against the Seahawks while averaging 35 points per game in those four meetings. And stopping the run is the key to stopping the Seahawks. The Rams rank 3rd in the NFL in giving up just 3.7 yards per carry.
Plays against road underdogs or PK (Seattle) - a hot team having won eight or more of their last 10 games are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Rams are 7-1 ATS when playing on six or fewer days’ rest this season. Los Angeles is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 NFC games. Sean McVay is 6-0 ATS after a dominant performance with 34-plus minutes time of possession and 24-plus first downs last game as the coach of the Rams. Bet the Rams Sunday.
|12-08-19||Titans v. Raiders +3||42-21||Loss||-107||19 h 50 m||Show|
15* Titans/Raiders AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Oakland +3
This is the ultimate ‘buy low, sell high’ situation. We’ll ‘buy low’ on the Raiders coming off back-to-back blowout road losses to the Jets and Chiefs by 31 points each. And we’ll ’sell high’ on the Titans, who have won five of their last six games overall coming in.
This Titans run has featured four home wins and only one road win. They lost 20-30 at Carolina and they were fortunate to win last week at Indianapolis. It was a 17-17 game with five minutes left and the Colts kicking a FG that was blocked and returned for a TD. That 10-point swing was the difference in the game. The Titans were outgunned by 99 yards in that game as they gave up 391 yards to the Colts and only managed 292 yards themselves.
The Raiders had a no-show at the Jets two weeks ago knowing they had a huge game on deck with the Chiefs. They promptly lost 9-40 at Kansas City. But that was a hugely misleading final as the Raiders actually outgained the Chiefs 332 to 259 or by 73 total yards. It’s hard to score 40 points on just 259 total yards, yet the Chiefs managed to do it.
Now the Raiders are back home where they have been at their best this season. They are 4-1 at home this year with their only loss coming to those aforementioned Chiefs. Their season is on the line here as they are chasing both the Titans and the Steelers for the final wild card spot in the AFC. It’s a must-win to say the least, and I expect the Raiders to get the job done.
This is definitely a sandwich spot for the Titans. They are coming off that huge road win over the division rival Colts that moved them within one game of first place in the AFC South. Now they have a home game against Houston on deck next week. In fact, they play the Texans two more times this season, so they are in control of their own destiny no matter what happens this week. I don’t expect them to show up fully focused, while I know we’ll get Oakland’s best effort this week.
Plays on any team (Oakland) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games against an opponent that went over the total by 35 or more points in their last three games are 34-8 (81%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
The Titans are 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 games as road favorites. The Raiders are 8-2 ATS In their last 10 games off a loss. Oakland is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games. The Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a home underdog. Roll with the Raiders Sunday.
|12-08-19||Ravens v. Bills +6||Top||24-17||Loss||-110||95 h 42 m||Show|
20* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo Bills +6
This is a great spot for the Buffalo Bills with extra rest having played last Thursday. That gives Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott extra time to prepare to stop Lamar Jackson and this Ravens offense. The 49ers top-ranked defense held the Ravens to just 20 points last week. And now this 3rd-ranked Buffalo defense will have some success as well.
Baltimore is coming off a huge last-second win over the 49ers. And the betting bandwagon on this Ravens team right now could not be more full. The betting public just continues to hammer this team. I think there’s a ton of value in getting the Bills as 6-point home underdogs. This line should be closer to Baltimore -3, so we are getting at least 3 points of value based off of public perception.
The Bills have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, especially late in the year. And they are 9-3 and only one game out of first place in the AFC East right now. Keep in mind they dominated the Patriots everywhere but the scoreboard in their first meeting, otherwise they would be in 1st place.
Josh Allen was brilliant in leading the Bills to a 26-15 win at Dallas in a game they also dominated from start to finish on Thursday. That game was never in doubt as the Bills controlled the whole game as 7-point road underdogs. Yet nobody wants to believe in them. I was on the 49ers last week against the Ravens, and I’m fading them again this week as it’s still time to ’sell high’ on them.
The Bills are really starting to run the football well now that they have a healthy one-two punch of Gore and Singletary in the backfield, plus Allen is an underrated runner and always has been since he entered the league. The Bills have rushed for 178.7 yards per game in their last three games. Well, the Ravens just gave up 174 rushing yards on 29 carries to the 49ers last week, so they can be run on. The Ravens have allowed 122-plus rushing yards in three of their last four games.
Plays on home games (Buffalo) - off an upset win as an underdog in a game involving two top teams that win 75% or more of their games are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS since 1983. Plays against road teams (Baltimore) - off eight or more consecutive wins in December games are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS since 1983. Take the Bills Sunday.
|12-08-19||Dolphins +5 v. Jets||21-22||Win||100||15 h 24 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Dolphins +5
It’s safe to say the Jets won’t be making a run to the playoffs now despite what Sam Darnold said five weeks ago. The Jets reeled off three straight wins, but then promptly lost 6-22 on the road to the Cincinnati Bengals last week. That was the previously winless Cincinnati Bengals.
It doesn’t get any lower than that, and I just don’t think the Jets will be playing with much passion the rest of the year now. Not to mention, no team has been hit harder by injuries than the Jets. They have a whopping 32 players on the injury report with 21 of them out and another eight of them questionable.
The Miami Dolphins continue to shows up week in and week out behind Ryan Fitzpatrick. They have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with three outright upsets. That includes their 37-31 win as 10-point home dogs to the Eagles last week. They diced up that Philadelphia secondary for 351 passing yards as Fitz formed a great chemistry with DeVante Parker, who had seven receptions for 159 yards.
The Jets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games against bad teams that are outscored by 10-plus points per game. New York is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as a favorite. The Jets are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC East opponents. The Dolphins are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings after upsetting the Jets 26-18 as 3.5-point home dogs in their first meeting this season. Bet the Dolphins Sunday.
|12-08-19||Colts +3.5 v. Bucs||35-38||Win||100||15 h 24 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indianapolis Colts +3.5
This is a great opportunity to ‘buy low’ on the Indianapolis Colts, who have lost four of their last five games coming in. And it’s a great spot to ’sell high’ on the Tampa Bay Bucs, who have won three of their last four coming in.
The Colts’ four losses here recently can all be explained. They lost to three potential playoff teams in the Steelers, Dolphins, Texans and Titans. They had Brian Hoyer at QB for two of those losses to Miami and Pittsburgh. They played the Texans tough in a 3-point road loss. And last week’s 17-31 loss to the Titans was misleading as they had a 10-point swing when they were kicking a FG to go in the lead and had it blocked and returned for a TD with five minutes left. They also outgained the Titans by 99 yards and deserved to win.
The Bucs are playing much better, but keep in mind their three wins during this stretch came against three of the worst teams in the NFL in the Cardinals, Falcons and Jaguars. Their lone loss was a 17-34 home loss to the Saints. Now the Bucs are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers as 3.5-point favorites here against a playoff contender in the Colts.
This just feels like a ‘rally the troops’ type of game for the Colts. They need a win to stay alive to win the AFC South, and they should get some help this week with the return of Marlon Mack at running back. The Colts racked up 391 total yards on the Titans last week and now get Mack back. They should be able to dice up a weak Tampa Bay defense that give up 28.8 points per game overall.
The Bucs have actually played their worst football at home this season. They are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS at home this year with their only win coming 30-27 over the Cardinals in comeback fashion. They are giving up 31.0 points per game at home. The Colts have the much better defense and have been competitive on the road, giving up just 21.2 points per game on the highway this year and 21.4 points per game overall.
The Colts are 10-2 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 350 or more yards per game over the last three seasons. The Bucs are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 vs. AFC South opponents. The Colts are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine road games. Indianapolis is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit home loss. The Bucs are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games. Tampa Bay is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 games as a home favorite. Indianapolis is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the Colts Sunday.
|12-07-19||Georgia v. LSU -6.5||Top||10-37||Win||100||45 h 46 m||Show|
20* Georgia/LSU SEC Championship No-Brainer on LSU -6.5
LSU has been one of the three best teams in college football all season. The Tigers have had few scares and have been in control in basically every game they’ve played from start to finish. Their high-powered offense has only gotten better as the season has gone on.
The Tigers have scored 46 or more points in four straight games, including wins over Alabama & Texas A&M. They are scoring 48.7 points per game and averaging 560.4 yards per game on the season. It’s the best offense in school history, and not one I want to step in front of right now. It will be the best offense that Georgia has seen yet this season, and it’s not really even close. They certainly haven’t faced a QB and passing attack near the caliber of Heisman winner Joe Burrow and company.
Georgia definitely has one of the best defenses in the land. But I question if Jake Fromm can keep up with LSU. The Bulldogs have scored 27 or fewer points in six of their last seven games overall. Ed Orgeron said his defense hadn’t shown its best stuff yet heading into the Texas A&M game last week. And the Tigers promptly beat the Aggies 50-7 and held them to 159 yards while forcing 3 turnovers. A lot of the yardage and points the Tigers have given up have been in blowouts this season, so their season-long stats are a little misleading. When they need stops, they can get them.
Georgia will be missing its leading receiver George Pickens for the 1st half due to suspension. He has 33 receptions for 498 yards and six touchdowns this year. Second-leading receiver Lawrence Cager is now out for the season with an ankle injury. He has 33 receptions for 476 yards and four scores. Not having these two will make Fromm’s job even more difficult. Plus, leading rusher D’Andre Swift (1,203 yards, 7 TD) is nursing a shoulder injury. One bad hit and he could be out of this game.
Ed Orgeron is 6-0 ATS vs. dominant ball control teams that average 32-plus possession minutes and 21-plus first downs as the coach of LSU. Georgia will have to abandon its plan to run the football and control the clock in this one once they find themselves behind. And Fromm isn’t good enough, nor does he have the weapons to play catch-up. Take LSU Saturday.
|12-07-19||Miami-OH v. Central Michigan -6.5||Top||26-21||Loss||-110||70 h 42 m||Show|
25* Conference Championship GAME OF THE YEAR on Central Michigan -6.5
Central Michigan could be found as high as 300-1 to win the MAC after losing to Wisconsin 61-0 in their 2nd game of the season. They’ve been money makers ever since and grossly undervalued all season. And now they are the favorites to win the MAC title for good reason.
The Chippewas are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. They have been dominant statistically in MAC play, outgaining opponents by 168 yards per game. Miami Ohio is actually getting outgained by 6 yards per game in MAC play this season.
The Redhawks didn’t play well down the stretch once they clinched the MAC title game. They barely beat Akron 20-17 as 29-point favorites. And last week they lost 27-41 to Ball State in a game that was an even bigger blowout than the score showed. They were outgained by 303 yards by Ball State.
QB Brett Gabbert left that game with an injury and is questionable to return this week. Backup QB Jackson Williamson went 4-for-11 for 52 yards with two interceptions in his place. I don’t think it matters who starts for the Redhawks because they’ll get blown out either way.
Central Michigan has scored at least 38 points in six of its last seven games overall. The Chippewas are averaging 38 points & 515 yards per game in MAC play this season. They are loaded at receiver and running back with great overall speed. Their top two running backs in Ward and Lewis have combined for over 2,000 rushing yards and 26 touchdowns. That will help them on the fast track at Ford Field in Detroit. Plus, they will have the home-field advantage with a short drive from Mount Pleasant to Detroit.
The Chippewas have the best defensive line in the MAC. They give up just 120 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season. Miami Ohio allows 180 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry. While these teams are pretty even defensively overall, there’s no question the Chippewas have a massive advantage on offense. The Redhawks only average 24.6 points and 308.7 yards per game on the season, including 17.4 points and 281 yards per game on the road.
The Chippewas are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Central Michigan is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a favorite. The Chippewas will cap off a tremendous turnaround from 1-11 to 9-4 with a blowout win over Miami Ohio and a MAC title. Bet Central Michigan Saturday.
|12-07-19||UL-Lafayette v. Appalachian State UNDER 56||38-45||Loss||-109||41 h 36 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Lafayette/Appalachian State UNDER 56
Appalachian State and Louisiana-Lafayette will be facing each other for the 4th time in two seasons. They met in the regular season and Sun Belt Championship Game last year, and they met in the regular season and will face each other again in the Sun Belt title game against this year.
It’s safe to say these teams are familiar with one another, and familiarity favors the defenses. That has proven to be the case in the three previous meetings. The UNDER is 3-0 and has gone under the total by an average of 25 points per game in the previous three meetings. They have combined for 44, 49 and 24 points in the three meetings, so you can see there’s value with the UNDER 56 tonight.
In their first meeting this season, Appalachian State won 17-7 at LA-Lafayette. The Mountaineers managed only 343 total yards with most of those coming on their final drive that sealed the win for them. The Rajin’ Cajuns managed only 254 yards in the loss. It will be more of the same here as both defenses win out in this one.
Appalachian State is giving up just 18.7 points and 321.2 yards per game on the season, including 16.4 points and 277.6 yards per game in Sun Belt play. Louisiana-Lafayette is giving p just 17.8 points per game on the season and 16.4 points per game in Sun Belt play. Their numbers are nearly identical with Appalachian State, and both defenses are the reason these teams are in the title game.
Louisiana-Lafayette is 9-1 UNDER vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 6-1 in Rajin’ Cajuns last seven games overall. The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings. The UNDER is 6-2 in Mountaineers last eight games overall. Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|12-06-19||Oregon v. Utah UNDER 46||Top||37-15||Loss||-109||25 h 44 m||Show|
20* Oregon/Utah Pac-12 Championship No-Brainer on UNDER 46
The biggest reason I’m on the UNDER tonight is due to the weather. Forecasts are calling for 20-plus MPH winds with around a 75% chance of precipitation during the game in Santa Clara. The weather conditions are going to make it difficult for both teams to throw the ball. This is going to be a run and punt and play field position type of game.
Both Utah and Oregon have the two best defenses in the Pac-12. The Utes are giving up just 11.2 points and 241.6 yards per game on the season. The Ducks are giving up just 15.7 points and 331.3 yards per game on the year. Both teams have been dominant against the run with the Utes allowing 56 rushing yards per game and 2.3 per carry, and the Ducks allowing 106 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry.
The UNDER is 8-2-1 in Utes last 11 conference games. The UNDER is 5-1 in Utes last six vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 7-2 in Ducks last nine games on grass. It’s a poor playing surface at Levi’s Stadium, especially when it gets wet. The weather will favor a defensive battle, and the books can’t set this number low enough. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|12-05-19||Cowboys -2.5 v. Bears||Top||24-31||Loss||-109||30 h 58 m||Show|
20* Cowboys/Bears FOX Thursday No-Brainer on Dallas -2.5
The Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears are both 6-6 this season. However, the Cowboys are favored for good reason here because they are much better than a 6-6 team, while the Bears are much worse than a 6-6 team. I’ll lay the short number with the Cowboys here because of it.
Dallas is outgaining its opponents by 111.1 yards per game on the season. That’s the sign of an elite team and one of the best marks in the entire NFL. The Cowboys have the top-ranked offense in the NFL at 432.8 yards per game. They are also 1st in yards per play (6.5) and 1st in 3rd down conversion rate (49%).
Chicago is getting outgained by 38 yards per game. The Bears rank 30th in yard per play (4.6), 29th in 3rd down conversion rate (31%) and 29th in total offense at 281.8 yards per game. Both teams are pretty equal on defense as the Bears are 7th in total defense at 319.7 yards per game and the Cowboys are 8th at 321.6 yards per game.
Of back-to-back losses where they felt like they should have won against the Patriots and Bills, the Cowboys will be highly motivated for a win here Thursday. And the Bears are coming off back-to-back wins over the Giants and Lions. They needed a late comeback to beat the Lions and their 3rd-string quarterback last week.
Dallas is 6-0 ATS after having lost three of its last four games overall the past three seasons. Chicago is 0-6 ATS after gaining 99 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games this season. The Cowboys are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road favorite. The Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall. Chicago is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing more than 350 yards in its previous game. Bet the Cowboys Thursday.
|12-02-19||Vikings +3 v. Seahawks||Top||30-37||Loss||-115||83 h 45 m||Show|
20* Vikings/Seahawks ESPN No-Brainer on Minnesota +3
The Seattle Seahawks are one of the most fraudulent 9-2 teams in the history of the NFL. They have only outscored their opponents by a total of 29 points on the season, which is the sign of a team that would be closer to 6-5 than 9-2. At least nine teams in the NFL have outscored their opponents by more than 29 points on the season.
One of those teams is the Minnesota Vikings, who have outscored their opponents by a total of 84 points and are every bit as good as their 8-3 record would indicate. Now the Seahawks’ luck will run out against one of the best teams in the NFL here in the Vikings. I expect Minnesota to win this game outright.
The Vikings have won six of their last seven games overall with their only loss coming on the road to the Kansas City Chiefs. Six of their eight wins this season have come by double-digits. They once again have an elite defense that is giving up just 18.6 points per game on the season.
Kirk Cousins is having one of the best seasons of his career. He is completing 70.6% of his passes for 2,756 yards with a 21-to-3 TD/INT ratio and 8.6 yards per attempt. A big reason he has been so good is because the Vikings finally have a rushing attack with Dalvin Cook, who has 1,017 yards and 11 touchdowns on the season while averaging 4.8 per carry.
One of the biggest reasons I see the Seahawks as frauds is because they have an awful defense that ranks 24th in the NFL in allowing 370.3 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play. They also give up 23.9 points per game. Now they will be without their best pass rusher in Jadeveon Clowney this week, making their job a whole lot tougher.
The Vikings have two full weeks to prepare for the Seahawks coming off their bye week. They want revenge on the Seahawks after losing five straight to them, including a one-point loss in the playoffs a few years back in Seattle after they missed a chip shot field goal for the win. The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. They are actually getting outscored by 3.4 points per game at home this season. Bet the Vikings Monday.
|12-01-19||Raiders v. Chiefs -10||9-40||Win||100||50 h 3 m||Show|
15* Raiders/Chiefs AFC West ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -10
The Kansas City Chiefs own the Oakland Raiders and the AFC West in general. The Chiefs have won nine of their last 10 meetings with the Raiders with six of those wins coming by double-digits. It will be more of the same today with the Chiefs today as they win by double-digits over the Raiders with first place in the AFC West on the line.
The Chiefs haven’t been as dominant as they were last year. But it’s also true that they haven’t been healthy all season. Patrick Mahomes has missed some time, and several of his weapons have missed games. But now the Chiefs are as healthy as they have been all season. And they’re going to be a scary team moving forward. Their season-long stats aren’t as good as they are going to be from here on out.
Andy Reid is one of the best head coaches of all-time off a bye. He is 22-4 SU & 17-9 ATS off a bye and will obviously have his team ready to go with what’s at stake today. He doesn’t need any motivational speeches with first place in the AFC West at stake.
The Raiders are coming off a 3-34 road loss to the New York Jets last week. It was their worst game of the season, and I’m definitely concerned about this team moving forward. They only managed 208 total yards against a bad Jets defense. Oakland’s leaky defense gave up 401 total yards to a bad Jets offense too. This had been a poor Oakland defense all season giving up 25.8 points and 370.8 yards per game, including 30.3 points and 372.8 yards per game on the road.
Oakland is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Raiders are 19-36 ATS in their last 55 games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 points or more. Oakland is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road games. Kansas City is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 vs. AFC West opponents. Take the Chiefs Sunday.
|12-01-19||Rams v. Cardinals OVER 47||Top||34-7||Loss||-116||50 h 42 m||Show|
25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Rams/Cardinals OVER 47
The Los Angeles Rams just got two weapons back last week in Robert Woods and Brandon Cooks. They weren’t in sync against the Rams Monday night, but they will be in sync against this putrid Cardinals defense. Look for the Rams to get back to being the old Rams offensively this week.
Not only have the injuries held their offense back, but they’ve been up against three straight good defenses in Pittsburgh, Chicago and Baltimore. They now face an Arizona defense that gives up 28.8 points per game and ranks 31st in total defense in allowing 415.2 yards per game. Many offenses have gotten right against the Cardinals this season. Indeed, the Cardinals have allowed 28-plus points in four straight games coming in.
The Rams were exposed defensively by the Ravens Monday night. They gave up 45 points and 480 total yards. The Rams rushed for 285 yards on them, really softening up their defense. I think their defense will still be tired from that game because they are on a short week. Look for the Cardinals to expose them too.
I expect this Arizona offense to be hitting on all cylinders coming out of their bye week with a first-year head coach. You know Kliff Kingsbury has a few extra tricks up his sleeve for the Rams in this one. And it’s an Arizona offense that has really improved as the season has gone along under Kyler Murray.
Indeed, the Cardinals have scored 25 or more points in six of their last seven games overall. It should come as no surprise that the OVER has gone 5-2 in those games. And the Cardinals should get to 25 in this one, so with the Rams favored by 3, this game should easily exceed this 47-point total. After all, the Rams have scored at least 31 points in each of their last four meetings with the Cardinals.
Plays on the OVER on any team (Arizona) - after allowing 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games against an opponent that allowed 450 or more total yards in their previous game are 31-8 (79.5%) over the last five seasons. Arizona is 13-4 to the OVER in its last 17 games after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-01-19||Jets -3 v. Bengals||Top||6-22||Loss||-109||47 h 38 m||Show|
20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Jets -3
Sam Darnold started to talk about the playoffs after the Jets beat the Giants 34-27 three weeks ago. Everyone laughed at him, and they’re still laughing because it’s probably not possible. But the fact of the matter is he has delivered since making that statement. And the Jets have the belief they can make the playoffs in that locker room, which is all that really matters.
Darnold went on to lead the Jets to a 34-17 win at Washington and a 34-3 home win over Oakland last week. I realize the competition hasn’t been great, but the Jets have scored 34 points on three straight NFL defenses. And now they face the worst team in the NFL in the 0-11 Cincinnati Bengals. I don’t see anything changing here.
The Bengals give up 26.5 points and are dead last in total defense at 417.2 yards per game allowed. Their offense ranks 31st in scoring at 14.3 points per game and they’ve been held to 17 points or fewer in six straight games coming in. They are going back to Andy Dalton this week at quarterback, but it won’t matter.
Dalton doesn’t have any weapons outside with AJ Green and John Ross sidelined. And the Bengals' only hope is to run the football with Joe Mixon. That certainly won’t be easy this week. The Jets are 1st in the NFL against the run, giving up just 78.1 yards per game and 3.0 yards per carry. Only one player has rushed for 100 yards against the Jets, and that was Zeke Elliott in Week 6, a game the Jets won.
The Bengals are coming off a tough 10-16 loss to division rival Pittsburgh. And they have another division rival in Cleveland on deck. I don’t see them showing up at all this week as it will be hard for them to get motivated to face the Jets. And even if they do, they aren’t good enough to hang with this hot Jets team playing their best football of the season.
The Bengals have 13 straight losses since the end of last year. They’ve also lost 18 of 19 overall, the worst stretch in franchise history. Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Cincinnati) - a cold team having lost eight or more of their last 10 games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS since 1983. The Bengals are 0-7 ATS in home games off a division loss over the last three seasons. Take the Jets Sunday.
|12-01-19||49ers +6 v. Ravens||17-20||Win||100||47 h 37 m||Show|
15* 49ers/Ravens Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Francisco +6
The Baltimore Ravens couldn’t possibly be more overvalued than they are right now off five straight blowout wins and covers. Now they are being asked to lay 6 points to what I believe is neck-and-neck with Baltimore as the best team in the NFL in the San Francisco 49ers. It’s too much, and there’s a great chance this game is decided by one score either way.
The Ravens got two non-offensive touchdowns against Seattle to start this streak. Then they had a bye and caught New England in a good spot. Then they faced an awful Cincinnati team before beating up on a bad Houston defense. And last week they beat up on an overrated Rams team. They will meet their match this week.
The 49ers have the best defense in the NFL. They rank 1st in total defense in giving up just 248.0 yards per game while also allowing just 14.8 points per game. Nothing has come easy against this San Francisco defense, which is loaded with first-round draft picks along the front seven and has the top-ranked pass defense in the league, giving up just 136.9 passing yards per game.
The 49ers have been great offensively when George Kittle and Emanuel Sanders have been healthy. They have scored 36 and 37 points in back-to-back wins over Arizona and Green Bay. And Kittle just returned against the Packers last week and made a huge difference in their 37-8 win. The 49ers held Aaron Rodgers and company to just 198 total yards on 65 plays, an average of 3.05 yards per play. And it’s worth noting the Ravens lost starting center Matt Skura to a season-ending knee injury against the Rams last week. Skura is the QB of the offensive line and makes all the calls.
Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Baltimore) - an excellent offensive team average 27 or more points pre game, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Baltimore) - after having won six or seven of their last eight games, a team that wins 75% or more of their games on the season in the 2nd half of the season are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. This line should be closer to Baltimore -3. Roll with the 49ers Sunday.
|12-01-19||Browns -1 v. Steelers||13-20||Loss||-118||47 h 37 m||Show|
15* Browns/Steelers AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -1
The Cleveland Browns played the toughest schedule in the entire NFL in the first half of the season. Now their schedule has lightened up and the Browns have won and covered three in a row. They will prove that they are better than the Steelers finally this season by sweeping the season series.
The Browns won 21-7 two weeks ago as 3-point home favorites. They dominated and forced four turnovers in the win. Obviously, the Steelers want revenge, but they don’t have the personnel to get it. The Browns are far and away the better team in this matchup in 2019.
The Steelers have a dreadful offense that has scored 17, 7 and 16 points the last three weeks. They are going to Devlin Hodges over Mason Rudolph at quarterback, but it’s not an upgrade. Hodges’ 24-17 win at the Chargers was extremely misleading. He only averaged 6.6 per attempt and totaled 132 passing yards. The Chargers gave that game away with turnovers and outgained the Steelers by 92 yards. And Hodgers is being looked at as the savior last week in leading the 16-10 win over the Bengals after replacing Rudolph. But it’s the 0-11 Bengals, who have lost 18 of their last 19 overall.
The Browns have outgained four straight opponents and are a very good team if they don’t beat themselves. They aren’t beating themselves as they have cleaned up the turnovers and penalties. And we saw the same thing last year with the Browns finishing the season strong after a slow start. They have one of the most talented offenses in the NFL, and their defense is good enough to shut down an awful Pitt offense again.
A big reason this Pittsburgh offense has struggled and why they’re playing musical chairs at quarterback is because they don’t have their full plethora of weapons. Both JuJu Smith-Shuster and James Conner aren’t expected to play this week. Plus, center Maurkice Pouncey is serving the second of his two-game suspension following the Myles Garrett/Mason Rudolph incident. Not having the QB of their offensive line is a big loss. And the books almost never factor in the loss of a center to injury, even thought it’s one of the most important positions in the NFL.
Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Pittsburgh) - revenging a loss vs. opponent of 14 points or more, winning between 51% & 60% of their games on the season are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS since 1983. The Browns are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Browns Sunday.
|12-01-19||Army +3 v. Hawaii||Top||31-52||Loss||-110||25 h 34 m||Show|
20* Army/Hawaii CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Army +3
Hawaii just clinched the MWC’s West Division with a 14-11 home win over San Diego State last week. The Rainbow Warriors have nothing to play for, and now they’d rather focus their attention on the MWC Championship Game against Boise State next week. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they lay down today instead of expending the energy it takes to try and shut down a triple-option team like Army.
Hawaii hasn’t had a bye since the beginning of October. They will be playing for an 8th straight week here. That’s all the more reason for them to not expend energy here, plus even if they wanted to they can’t have much left in the tank. Meanwhile, Army is coming off a bye week and has another bye on deck before facing Navy. They will be ‘all in’ here because they sit at 5-6 and need to win their final two games to make a bowl.
Army is clearly fresh off the bye, but also because it won a couple laughers going into the bye. The Black Knights won 63-7 over UMass and 47-6 over VMI in their two games preceding the bye. And this is a great matchup for them as they rush for 303 yards per game and 5.3 per carry. Hawaii allows 188 rushing yards per game and 5.6 per carry on the season. It’s strength vs. weakness here, so the situation and the matchup favor the Black Knights.
Army is 8-0 ATS in road games after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game over the past three seasons. Nick Rolovich is 0-7 ATS vs. good teams who outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game as the coach of Hawaii. The Black Knights are 7-1 ATS int heir last eight road games vs. a team with a winning record. Take Army Saturday.
|11-30-19||Rutgers +41 v. Penn State||6-27||Win||100||16 h 33 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Rutgers +41
This is the ultimate flat spot for the Penn State Nittany Lions. They just lost a grueling 17-28 game at Ohio State with the Big Ten East title on the line. After losing that game, the Nittany Lions could care less about beating Rutgers by any kind of margin this week. And unless they are giving 100%, they aren’t going to cover this massive 41-point spread.
Not to mention, Penn State QB Sean Clifford was knocked out of the Ohio State game with a leg injury and is questionable to play Saturday. Look for the Nittany Lions to pull their starters in the second half of this game and to just try and get out of here with a win rather than looking to run up the score.
Rutgers will be looking at this game like its Super Bowl. And the Scarlet Knights have been more competitive here down the stretch. They beat Liberty outright as 7.5-point dogs, they covered as 51.5-point dogs in a 21-56 loss to Ohio State, and they lost 27-0 to Michigan State last week. They haven’t quit, and they will be trying to give Penn State all they can handle Saturday.
Rutgers hasn’t lost by more than 39 to Penn State since joining the Big Ten in 2014. They only lost 20-7 last year as 28.5-point dogs. They covered as 31-point dogs in 2017 in a 35-6 loss. They lost 39-0 in 2016 and 28-3 in 2015. They covered as 3.5-point dogs in a 13-10 loss in 2014. Don’t expect the Scarlet Knights to lose by 41-plus points for the first time against Penn State this week.
Penn State has actually been outgained in six of its 11 games this season, so it is nowhere near as good as its 9-2 record would indicate. The Nittany Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games. James Franklin is 3-15 ATS off a loss as the coach of Penn State. He hasn’t been good at getting his team to respond following a defeat. And he certainly has his hands full getting his players to show up this week after losing to Ohio State last week. Bet Rutgers Saturday.
|11-30-19||New Mexico State +14.5 v. Liberty||28-49||Loss||-105||14 h 3 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Mexico State +14.5
The New Mexico State Aggies lost their first nine games of the season against an absolutely brutal schedule. They schedule finally eased up, and they were able to pick up back-to-back wins over Incarnate Word 41-28 as 8-point favorites and UTEP 44-35 as 7-point favorites. They have shown some fight here down the stretch, and they’ll certainly show up here against Liberty.
This is quickly becoming a rivalry because these teams have played twice a year each of the last two years since they both don’t have a conference as Independents. Each of the three meetings over the last two seasons have been decided by 8 points or less. New Mexico State wants revenge from a 13-20 home loss to Liberty in a game they deserved to win, but lost the turnover battle 3-0. They outgained Liberty 396 to 337 in that contest.
Liberty has benefited from playing one of the easiest schedules in the country. They have played the 127th schedule compared to the 96th schedule for New Mexico State. And after finally facing some decent teams in BYU and Virginia, losing by 28 to Virginia last week, I just can’t see Liberty being all that motivated this week to beat NMSU for a second time. They are already bowl eligible at 6-5 this season.
Plays on road teams (New Mexico State) - after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in two straight games against an opponent that was outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 55-25 (68.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Aggies are simply catching too many points here. Take New Mexico State Saturday.
|11-30-19||Ohio State v. Michigan +9.5||Top||56-27||Loss||-110||14 h 22 m||Show|
25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan +9.5
The Michigan Wolverines turned their season around in the second half against Penn State, coming back from a 21-0 deficit and coming a dropped pass away from sending that game to overtime. They really deserved to win that game as they outgunned the Nittany Lions by 124 yards. In fact, the Wolverines have outgained 10 of their 11 opponents this season. I think they’re every bit as good as Ohio State right now, and it will show on the field Saturday.
The Wolverines came back the next week after the Penn State loss and crushed a very good Notre Dame team 45-14 at home. They outgained the Fighting Irish by 257 yards in the win, so there was nothing fluky about it. They went on to beat Maryland 38-7 and Michigan State 44-10. And last week, I actually faded Michigan and took Indiana thinking it was a sandwich spot. It wasn’t, and the Wolverines remained focused and handled their business in a 39-14 win as 10-point favorites.
Ohio State has been grossly overvalued here down the stretch after a great start to the season against a soft schedule. The Buckeyes failed to cover as 52-point favorites in a 56-21 win at Rutgers. And last week they found themselves fighting Penn State tooth and nail at home, pulling out the eventual 28-17l win as 20-point favorites.
Ohio State QB Justin Fields suffered an ankle injury in that Penn State game that hampered him and will continue to slow him this week. That’s a huge advantage for this Michigan defense as he won’t be the dual-threat he usually would be. And stopping the run is the key to stopping Ohio State as Fields is suspect as a passer.
The Wolverines have the clear answer for Ohio State’s rushing attack. Michigan allows just 106 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry. They are holding opponents to 68 rushing yards per game and 1.7 per carry less than their season averages. They have one of the best run defenses in the country. And while Michigan is almost fully healthy with only two players on the injury report, Ohio State has a plethora of injuries with 13 players on the injury report and a ton with a questionable tag.
Michigan QB Shea Patterson has taken his game to the next level this season and is capable out out dueling Fields in this one. He is completing 59.5% of his passes for 2,523 yards with a 21-to-5 TD/INT ratio this season while averaging 8.4 yards per attempt. And Patterson has been really good during the current four-game winning streak with all four wins by 25 points or more and the offense averaging 41.5 points per game He has a 12-to-1 ratio in his last four games.
Michigan wants this game like blood. The Wolverines have lost seven straight in this series to Ohio State. Jim Harbaugh was brought in here to beat Ohio State, and it’s time in Year 4. I think this is the perfect spot to do so, and he finally has the team to get it done. The game doesn’t mean as much for the Buckeyes, who clinched the Big Ten East division last year. They could lose this game and still win the Big Ten title next week against Wisconsin or Minnesota and make the four-team playoff. A loss won’t keep them out. This is Michigan’s Super Bowl.
Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Michigan) - in a game involving two dominant teams who are outgaining their opponents by 1.2 or more yards per play, after gaining 450 or more total yards in two straight games are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Michigan is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game over the last three seasons. Jim Harbaugh is 10-1 ATS vs. excellent rushing defensive that allow 2.75 or fewer yards per carry in all games as a head coach. Harbaugh is 9-2 ATS vs. excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry as the coach of Michigan. The Wolverines are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. Bet Michigan Saturday.
|11-30-19||Florida International v. Marshall -7.5||27-30||Loss||-110||12 h 3 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Marshall -7.5
The Marshall Thundering Herd are still playing to try and win C-USA’s East Division. They need a win and a Florida Atlantic loss to Southern Miss this week to get in. They have the tiebreaker over both FAU and Western Kentucky. And it’s Senior Day, so they’ll be max motivated.
The same cannot be said for Florida International. They just clinched their 6th win and bowl eligibility last week. They did so by beating big brother Miami outright as a 21-point underdog. I think they will be partying all week and won’t care at all about this game. It’s a massive letdown spot for the Golden Panthers.
FIU is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in true road games this season and losing by 23 points per game. They lost by 28 at Tulane, by 12 at LA Tech, by 33 at Middle Tennessee and by 30 at Florida Atlantic. Marshall is 5-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to 10-2 Cincinnati.
The Golden Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last four conference games. The Thundering Herd are 17-5-2 ATS in their last 24 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with Marshall Saturday.
|11-29-19||Iowa v. Nebraska +6||Top||27-24||Win||100||28 h 36 m||Show|
20* Iowa/Nebraska Big Ten No-Brainer on Nebraska +6
The Nebraska Cornhuskers are the single-most underrated 5-6 or worse team in the country. The betting public wants nothing to do with them after they burned through their money betting on them; the Huskers are just 2-9 ATS this season. And I think we are ‘buying low’ on the Huskers, who were 7-point favorites over the Hawkeyes in this game entering the season. Now they are 6-point underdogs on game day.
Nebraska has actually seven of its last 10 opponents despite going 4-6 SU. The only exceptions were a home game against Ohio State, and road losses to Purdue and Minnesota. And Adrian Martinez hasn’t been healthy all season, but he is back to 100% now and playing well. I’ve been very impressed with what I’ve seen from Nebraska the last two weeks.
Indeed, the Huskers outgained Wisconsin by 11 yards but lost despite gaining 493 total yards on Wisconsin’s vaunted defense. Then they went into Maryland and won 54-7 last week and outgained them by 325 yards. The Huskers are getting their running game going, rushing for 273 yards on Wisconsin and 305 yards on Maryland.
The fact that Nebraska has been running the football well of late and on the season is important because they will need to run on Iowa because the weather report is calling for some rain. Nebraska is rushing for 207 yards per game and 4.7 per carry this season. Iowa has the worst rushing attack it has had in years. The Hawkeyes only average 132 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry on the season. And QB Nathan Stanley has taken a step back this year to really hurt his draft stock.
Iowa just played Wisconsin a few weeks ago and only lost 22-24. However, they had a huge comeback in the 4th quarter that made that game look closer than the final score. The Hawkeyes were outgained by 178 yards by the Badgers. Iowa went on to get lucky to beat Minnesota 23-19 the next week despite getting outgained by 141 yards by the Gophers. And last week the Hawkeyes only outgained a bad Illinois team by 51 yards in a 19-10 home win as 15-point favorites.
So, as you can see, Nebraska is the better team when you compare stats against common opponents. Nebraska outgained Wisconsin while Iowa was outgained by 178 yards by the Badgers. And Nebraska outgained Illinois by 391 yards while Iowa only outgained Illinois by 51 yards. Iowa has a putrid offense that is averaging just 19.4 points per game in Big Ten play. They can’t be trusted to lay this number on the road.
While Iowa will be motivated for this rivalry game, Nebraska will clearly be the more motivated team. Scott Frost wants to get his team to a bowl game in Year 2 and finish the season strong. The Huskers also want revenge from a 28-31 road loss at Iowa as 8.5-point dogs. Iowa won on a last-second field goal. I strongly believe the wrong team is favored in this matchup.
Nebraska is 30-13 ATS in its last 43 games after failing to cover the spread in four or five of its last six games coming in. The Huskers desperately want to end a four-game losing streak to the Hawkeyes in this series, and I think they get the job done at home this week. Take Nebraska Friday.
|11-29-19||Toledo v. Central Michigan -10||Top||7-49||Win||100||25 h 5 m||Show|
25* MAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Central Michigan -10
The Central Michigan Chippewas can clinch the MAC West title with a win Friday. Western Michigan lost to Northern Illinois on Tuesday to allow the Chippewas to have this opportunity, and I expect them to take full advantage with a blowout win over Toledo Friday.
Central Michigan has been underrated all season, and that’s evident with their 8-3 ATS record this year. They have been the most dominant team in the MAC. They are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in MAC play this season, outgaining opponents by 150 yards per game and 1.8 yards per play. They are averaging 509.3 yards per game in MAC play and giving up 359.4 yards per game.
Not to mention, the Chippewas have two full weeks to get ready for Toledo after having a bye last week. Meanwhile, Toledo played last week against Buffalo, and while they will have a few extra days of rest than normal they are still at a disadvantage.
While I love the motivation for Central Michigan, I hate the motivational spot for Toledo. The Rockets have already clinched a bowl with a 6-5 record this season. And after losing at home to NIU 28-31, their hopes of winning the MAC West were crushed. They went on to lose 30-49 at Buffalo last week in a game that wasn’t even as close as that final score showed. Now it will be more of the same against Central Michigan.
Toledo has one of the worst defenses in the country. They are giving up 468.7 yards per game this season, including 464.9 yards per game in MAC play. The Rockets have been dreadful on the road, going 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS while getting outscored by 15.6 points per game and outgained by 125 yards per game. They are giving up a whopping 524.8 yards per game on the road this season.
Conversely, Central Michigan is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 23.2 points per game and outgaining them by 251 yards per game. They are averaging 550 yards per game of offense at home and only giving up 298.6 yards per game. They beat Northern Illinois 48-10 in their last home game, the same NIU team that beat Toledo on the road and Western Michigan on the road each for he last two weeks.
And perhaps the most important part about this handicap is that Toledo could be without its top two quarterbacks. Mitchell Guadagni has missed the past five games and is unlikely to return. And backup Eli Peters was knocked out of the Buffalo game last week and is questionable to play. The good news is that even if one of them plays, I still love Central Michigan, and if they don’t play they have no chance of even being competitive.
Toledo is 0-7 ATS after going over the total in two straight games over the last two seasons. Central Michigan is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after scoring 42 points or more last game. The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. The Chippewas are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games. These four trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing the Chippewas. Bet Central Michigan Friday.
|11-29-19||Bowling Green v. Buffalo -28||7-49||Win||100||25 h 1 m||Show|
15* CFB Friday Early ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo -28
The Buffalo Bulls are the far superior team in this matchup with Bowling Green. So while I rarely lay this big of a number in any sport, I’m going to lay the number with the Bulls Friday. They should win by more than four touchdowns against a Bowling Green team that looks like they’ve quit.
Buffalo sits at 6-5 this season and playing some tremendous football down the stretch. The Bulls are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They beat Akron 21-0 as 18-point road favorites, beat Central Michigan 43-20 as 2.5-point home favorites, won at Eastern Michigan 43-14 as 1.5-point favorites, and crushed Toledo 49-30 at home as 10-point favorites. Their lone loss came at Kent State after they blew a 27-6 lead in the 4th quarter in fluky fashion, giving up 24 points in the final eight minutes.
Bowling Green lost at Miami Ohio 3-44 two weeks ago and came back to lose 24-66 at home to Ohio last week. The Falcons sit at 3-8 on the season and have clearly quit. In fact, seven of those eight losses came by 28 points or more, so they are used to getting blown out by big margins. And their three wins have come against Morgan State, Akron and Toledo.
The key with Bowling Green is that they have been respectable at home, but atrocious on the road. The Falcons are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in road games this season, getting outscored by a whopping 45.2 points per game. They are scoring just 6.6 points per game on 253.8 yards per game on the highway, and allowing 51.8 points per game and 568.6 yards per game.
Buffalo beat Bowling Green 44-14 on the road last season as 16-point favorites. They gained 483 yards and only allowed 205 yards, outgaining the Falcons by 278 yards. Expect more of the same at Buffalo this time around as the Bulls are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season with their only loss coming to Ohio by a single point.
The Falcons are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs. Bowling Green is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 vs. a team with a winning record. Buffalo is 10-1 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last three seasons. Bowling Green is 1-9 ATS off a home game over the last two seasons. The Falcons are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Roll with Buffalo Friday.
|11-28-19||Saints v. Falcons +7||Top||26-18||Loss||-105||29 h 58 m||Show|
20* NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons +7
The Atlanta Falcons are being left for dead now after losing 22-35 at home to the Tampa Bay Bucs last week. It’s the perfect time to ‘buy low’ on them and trust that they’ll get back to playing the same kind of football they were the two weeks before losing to the Bucs.
We saw the Falcons come out of their bye week and crush the Saints 26-9 as 14-point road underdogs. Then we saw them back it up with a 29-3 win at Carolina as 4.5-point dogs to prove it was no fluke. I think off those two huge upset road wins, the Falcons simply fell flat last week in the role of the favorite against a Bucs team that had lost five of their previous six coming in.
Now, back at home on Thanksgiving Day and up against their biggest rivals, the Falcons will be giving a max effort tonight. And when they are dialed in and focused, they are capable of beating anyone in the NFL as we’ve seen. Look for them to give the Saints a run for their money tonight.
The Saints are overvalued due to their 9-2 record this season. They have simply been the kings of winning close games as the Saints are 6-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less. And this game is likely to decided by a touchdown or less as well, meaning that we are getting great value on the Falcons here as 7-point home dogs.
Atlanta really missed Devonta Freeman at running back last week against the Bucs. They couldn’t get anything going on the ground without him, and he’s also a huge threat in the passing game. The Falcons were able to rush for 143 yards the last time they faced the Saints and that took a lot of pressure off Matt Ryan. Look for them to get back to running the ball this week after attempting just 19 rushes last week compared to 34 in that win over the Saints.
New Orleans was lucky to escape with a 34-31 win over the Panthers last week. The Panthers couldn’t punch in first and goal in the final minutes, and then missed a chip shot field goal. The Saints went down and kicked a game-winner as time expired. They only outgained the Panthers by 67 yards. And in their previous two games, they were outgained by 7 yards by the Falcons and by 6 yards by the Bucs.
Series history of games played at Atlanta shows that there’s a ton of value on the Falcons +7. Indeed, the Saints haven’t won by more than 6 points over the Falcons in Atlanta since 2007. That’s 11 meetings and zero wins for the Saints by more than 6 points. That makes for a perfect 11-0 system backing the Falcons pertaining to this 7-point spread.
Plays against road teams (New Orleans) - revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more, after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. And it’s a huge advantage for the Falcons to be staying at home after playing a home game last week so there’s no travel for them on this short week. Bet the Falcons Thursday.
|11-28-19||Ole Miss +2.5 v. Mississippi State||Top||20-21||Win||100||28 h 6 m||Show|
20* Ole Miss/Mississippi State ESPN No-Brainer on Ole Miss +2.5
The Ole Miss Rebels somehow were able to get a bye week before playing their biggest game of the season in the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs had to play Saturday against Abilene Christian and now will be on a short week. That edge in rest and preparation is a huge advantage for the Rebels this week.
Ole Miss has been grossly undervalued in the entire second half of the season. The Rebels are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. They have exceeded expectations despite playing a brutal schedule. And ever since dual-threat QB John Rhys Plumlee took over, this Ole Miss offense has flourished. Plumlee has rushed for 989 yards and 11 touchdowns while averaging 7.3 per carry against mostly very good defenses.
The Rebels have had their best offensive performance last time out against a very good LSU defense. The managed 614 total yards and 37 points against LSU. They had 606 total yards against New Mexico State the game before and covered as 28-point favorites in a 41-3 win. They only lost 14-20 at Auburn as 17-point dogs. They deserved to beat Texas A&M but lost 17-24 at home despite outgaining them by 65 yards. They gave Missouri a battle in a 27-38 road loss. They crushed Vanderbilt 31-6 as 7-point home favorites. And they were only outgained by 98 yards at Alabama and put up 31 points and 476 total yards on their defense.
This is going to be Ole Miss’ Super Bowl. They won’t be going to a bowl game at 4-7 this season. But they have a chance to knock Mississippi State (5-6) out of a bowl game. The Bulldogs have been one of the most overrated teams in the country this season as they are just 4-7 ATS with their only covers coming in wins over Southern Miss, Kentucky, Arkansas and Abilene Christian. They really haven’t beaten anyone good.
These teams have five common opponents this season. Ole Miss is 1-4 SU & 4-1 ATS against them while only getting outscored by 9.6 points per game and outgained by 0.8 yards per play. Mississippi State is 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS against those same five opponents, getting outscored by 15.2 points per game and outgained by 1.3 yards per play. These common opponent stats show Ole Miss is the better team, and we’re getting them as an underdog in a favorable rest spot off the bye.
Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Mississippi State) - after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game against opponent that gained 5.5 or more yards per attempt last game are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Ole Miss is 6-1 ATS in its last seven conference games. Mississippi State is 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last six conference games. Take Ole Miss Thursday.
|11-28-19||Bears v. Lions +4.5||24-20||Win||100||21 h 8 m||Show|
15* Bears/Lions NFC North ANNIHILATOR on Detroit +4.5
I realize the Detroit Lions could be down to third-string quarterback David Blough if Jeff Driskel is unable to go. And while I liked Blough at Purdue and believe he looked pretty solid in the preseason, this is more of a play against Chicago than a play on Detroit than anything.
This line has moved from Detroit -1.5 all the way to Chicago -4.5, which is a 6-point adjustment. I’d understand that adjustment if it was from Stafford to Driskel, but not from Driskel to possibly Blough. This is an overcorrection, and the value is clearly on the Lions at home. The books are clearly going to need the Lions, and I like being on the books’ side in this situation.
The fact of the matter is the Bears still have one of the worst offenses in the NFL. They are scoring 17.1 points per game and averaging 269.3 yards per game on the season. They have scored 20 or fewer points in five straight games coming in. You just can’t trust the Bears to lay this many points with their dreadful offense.
It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Lions, who were upset by the Redskins last week as 4-point road favorites. But that was a very misleading final as the Lions outgained the Redskins by 134 yards but gave the game away with four turnovers. Now the betting public wants nothing to do with the Lions after they just lost to the dreadful Redskins, but nine times out of 10 with their stats they would have won that game.
In fact, the Lions have actually outgained four of their last five opponents, including in all three of their road games against the Raiders, Bears and Redskins. They outgained the Giants at home and beat them, and took the Cowboys to the wire in a 27-35 loss in the only game they were outgained.
Four weeks ago, the Lions played in Chicago with Driskel at quarterback and lost 13-20. But that was a hugely misleading final. They outgained the Bears by 131 yards in that game. They held Mitch Trubisky and Chicago’s offense to just 216 yards while gaining 357 yards themselves. They clearly should have won that game. They were 6-point road dogs in that contest, and now they are 4.5-point home dogs in the rematch. The line should be closer to PK when you adjust for home-field advantage.
A whopping 12 of the last 15 meetings in this series were decided by one score. And this game is likely to go down to the wire as well, so getting +4.5 points is a nice value. And keep in mind the Bears are just 5-6 this season with only two of their wins coming by more than one score. Plus, 10 of Detroit’s 11 games this season have been decided by one score, so they are much better than their 3-7-1 record would indicate.
Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Chicago) - after having won two of their last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 32-8 (80%) ATS since 1983. The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. Roll with the Lions Thursday.
|11-26-19||Ohio v. Akron +28||52-3||Loss||-106||7 h 9 m||Show|
15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Akron +28
The Akron Zips are 0-11 SU & 1-10 ATS this season. The betting public wants nothing to do with them, and we are getting them at a huge discount this week. We’re getting the Zips as four-touchdown home underdogs on Senior Night in a game I know they are going to be max motivated to get their first win of the year.
I cashed in Akron last week as 31.5-point underdogs at Miami (Ohio). They only lost that game 17-20 and had the ball with a chance to win late in the fourth quarter. That’s a Miami (Ohio) team that will be going to the MAC Championship.
Ohio has been overrated all season because they were a popular pick to win the MAC this year. The Bobcats are just 5-6 SU & 3-8 ATS this season. They have a good quarterback in Nathan Rourke, but the rest of their team has a lot of problems.
Akron actually has the better defense in this matchup. The Zips are giving up 396.7 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play on the season. Ohio is allowing 431.3 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play on the year. I don’t think the Bobcats should be favored by four touchdowns on the road with the worse defense.
Akron’s offense has not been good, obviously, but they have been better with QB Kato Nelson under center. He has 11 touchdowns against six interceptions and is a dual-threat who can escape pressure. This offense has been a lot more effective in the games he didn’t miss with injury.
Four of the last five meetings in this series have been decided by 6 points or less. The lone exception was last year with a very good Ohio team winning 49-28 at home against Akron as 24-point favorites. Now the Bobcats are favored by 28 on the road this time around and they aren’t nearly as good as they were last year.
Ohio is 1-7 ATS as a favorite this season. The Bobcats are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring 50 points or more in their previous game. Frank Solich is 1-8 ATS in road games after a game where they forced four or more turnovers as the coach of Ohio. Their game against Bowling Green was much closer than the final score showed last week, so we’re getting extra line value here because of it. Take Akron Tuesday.
|11-25-19||Ravens v. Rams OVER 46.5||Top||45-6||Win||100||55 h 17 m||Show|
25* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Ravens/Rams OVER 46.5
Offensive coordinator Greg Roman has worked wonders with yet another dual-threat quarterback in his first season with the Ravens this year. Roman was the coordinator for Colin Kaepernick back when he was decent, and he was the coordinator for Tyrod Taylor the last time the Bills made the playoffs. Now he has a QB in Lamar Jackson who is actually pretty good.
The results cannot even be debated. Roman is the dual-threat QB guru. The Ravens lead the NFL in scoring offense at 34.1 points per game and are 2nd in total offense at 428.6 yards per game. Jack is completing 66.3% of his passes for 2,258 yards with 19 touchdowns against five interceptions while averaging 8.1 per attempt. He also leads the team in rushing with 781 yards and six scores and is well on his way to winning the MVP award.
The Rams were on fire offensively to start the season. They scored 27 or more points in four of their first five games. But then injuries took their toll to the offensive line and receivers, and they haven’t been as explosive since. However, they are much healthier on the offensive line now, and they get both Brandon Cooks and Robert Woods back this week. Jared Goff will now have his full compliment of weapons for the first time since the beginning of the season. And the Rams should get back to putting up points in bunches.
I know both defenses have played well of late, but a lot of that has to do with going up against some bad offenses. The Rams have played the Bears, Steelers and Bengals the last three weeks. The Ravens have played the Texans, Bengals and Patriots the last three weeks. This number is lower than it should be because the defenses have been playing well of late. I expect the offenses to win out in this showdown as these are still just average defenses and well above average offenses.
The Rams are 9-0 OVER in their last nine home games after allowing 4 or fewer yards per play in their previous game. Plays on the OVER on road teams where the total is 42.5 to 49 points (Baltimore) - an excellent offensive team that scores 27 or more points per game, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games are 42-13 (76.4%) since 1983. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.
|11-24-19||Packers v. 49ers -3||Top||8-37||Win||100||131 h 43 m||Show|
25* NBC Sunday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers -3
The San Francisco 49ers are among the top three teams in the NFL in my opinion. They are neck and neck with the Patriots and Ravens, and the numbers show it. The 49ers are 8-2 with a +140 point differential, and the Ravens are 8-2 with a +145 differential and the Patriots are 9-1 with a +179 differential. Fourth place is Minnesota at +84, and 5th place is Green Bay at +45.
As you can see, the top three teams are head and shoulders ahead of everyone else. And this number of 49ers -3 is basically saying these are equal teams when giving the 49ers 3 points for home-field advantage. And they’re not even close to equal. The 49ers have outscored their opponents by 140 points this season, while the Packers have only outscored theirs by 45. The Packers have simply been fortunate in close games.
The key stat here is the 49ers are far and away the better defensive team. The 49ers are 2nd in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 253.0 yards per game. They are also 2nd in scoring defense at 15.5 points per game allowed. The Packers are 28th in total defense, giving up 384.7 yards per game. Only the Dolphins, Lions, Cardinals and Bengals have been worse, so they are in some pretty poor company.
Another big key is the 49ers get George Kittle back this week. There’s a reason they struggled with the Seahawks and Cardinals the last two games. Being division opponents definitely is one reason, but the other is the 49ers were without Kittle. He is worth more to the point spread than any non-QB in the NFL. He set the NFL record for receiving yards by a tight end last year and is far and away Jimmy G’s favorite target. The 49ers in general are more healthy than they were for those two games against the Seahawks and Cardinals.
Plays on favorites (San Francisco) - after having won three of their last four games against an opponent that’s a hot team having won eight or more of their last 10 games are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Aaron Rodgers will struggle against the best defense he’s seen yet this season. Bet the 49ers Sunday.
|11-24-19||Cowboys +6 v. Patriots||9-13||Win||100||27 h 29 m||Show|
15* Cowboys/Patriots Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas +6
The Dallas Cowboys have the No. 1 offense in the NFL. They are averaging 444.6 yards per game on the season as Dak Prescott is having an MVP year, and Zeke Elliott is one of the best backs in the NFL. The Cowboys will test the Patriots’ defense like they haven’t been tested yet this year.
Tom Brady is dealing with an elbow injury that saw him wind up on the injury report this week. And Brady is going to be without two receivers in Mohamed Sanu and Phillip Dorsett. This Patriots offense has been struggling due to a lack of weapons, plus Brady finally showing his age. This is a lot of points for the Patriots to have to lay with an offense as lackluster as theirs.
Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (New England) - after having won six or seven of their last eight games, a top level team that wins 75% or more of their games on the season in the second half of the season are 29-10 (74.4%) ATS over the last five years.
The Cowboys are 6-4 on the season with three of their losses coming by 2, 2 and 4 points. They have only been beaten once by more than 6 points in their 10 games this season. The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last seven November games. Jason Garrett is 17-8 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of Dallas. Garrett is 12-4 ATS in road games off a road game as the coach of the Cowboys. Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.
|11-24-19||Jaguars v. Titans -3||Top||20-42||Win||100||80 h 24 m||Show|
20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Tennessee Titans -3
The Tennessee Titans got hot in the 2nd half of the season last year and they’re doing it again this year. They have won three of their last four behind the great play of Ryan Tannehill. He is completing 71.3% of his passes and averaging 8.5 yards per attempt while being a huge upgrade over Marcus Mariota.
The Titans pulled off the huge 35-32 upset win over the Chiefs two weeks ago at home. Now they are coming off a bye week and ready to keep their momentum going as they are just one game back of first place in the AFC South. They have a lot to play for the rest of the way now.
The Jaguars are reeling after back-to-back blowout losses to Houston by 23 and Indianapolis by 20. They could not stop the run against either team. They gave up 216 rushing yards to the Texans and 264 to the Colts. That’s bad news for the Jaguars having to face Derrick Henry this week.
The Titans rushed for 225 yards on the Chiefs led by 188 and two scores from Henry. This is the time of year when Henry came on strong last season, and he’s poised to do it against in 2019. The Titans also want revenge from a 20-7 road loss to the Jaguars in their first meeting this season. The Titans actually outgained the Jaguars by 48 yards in that game. And that was back when Mariota was still starting and Jalen Ramsey was actually playing for the Jaguars. These are two completely different teams now.
Tennessee is still 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Jacksonville. The Titans have rushed for an average of 160 yards per game in those five meetings. And I expect them to top 200 rushing yards in this game with Tannehill also continuing his great play. The Titans are 27-13 ATS in their last 40 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less. The Titans are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Jaguars. Bet the Titans Sunday.
|11-24-19||Panthers +10 v. Saints||31-34||Win||100||24 h 5 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Carolina Panthers +10
The Carolina Panthers are in do-or-die mode now. They are 5-5 on the season and needing a win to stay in the playoff race. I know I’m going to get a big effort from the Panthers today with their season on the line and playing a division rival. I love getting double-digits with the Panthers in this spot.
This is the perfect week to ‘buy low’ on the Panthers. They are coming off a 3-29 home loss to the Atlanta Falcons. But that was a misleading final because they were only outgained by 2 yards. Conversely, it’s time to ’sell high’ on the Saints, who are coming off a 34-17 blowout win over the Bucs. But that was also a misleading final because the Saints were outgained by 6 yards. The Bucs were only down 10 and Jameis Winston threw a pick-6 in the final minutes to make the score worse than it was. We are getting line value now because of those two misleading finals.
Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (New Orleans) - after having won six or seven of their last eight games, a top level team winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 29-11 (72.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.
The Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. The underdog is 9-1 ATS int he last 10 meetings in this series. Carolina is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 trips to New Orleans. Take the Panthers Sunday.
|11-24-19||Giants +6.5 v. Bears||14-19||Win||100||24 h 4 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Giants +6.5
The New York Giants are coming off their bye week. They are looking to finish the season strong to build for next year. They already have their QB of the future, so they aren’t looking to tank. And that’s one of the biggest misconceptions about the NFL today is that teams tank. Players aren’t looking to lose their jobs by poor performance. They show up every Sunday.
I like the fact that Mitch Trubisky is starting over Chase Daniel. It helps our bet here. Trubisky is averaging 5.6 yards per attempt. The Bears are scoring just 16.9 points per game on the season. They are averaging 263 yards per game as well. They can’t be trusted to lay a number like this to many teams in the NFL, especially a Giants team coming off their bye.
Jones has a 9-to-1 TD/INT ratio in his last three games overall. And I think it’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Giants, who have lost six straight coming in. We saw the Falcons respond from their bye at 1-7 and dominate their two games out of the bye. I’m not saying the Giants will be as dominant, but they will put their best foot forward this week off their bye.
Plays on road underdogs or PK (NY Giants) - off five or more consecutive losses, in November games are 53-22 (70.7%) ATS since 1983. Teams on extended losing streaks are consistently undervalued this late in the seasons. The Giants are 6-0 ATS in their last six games on grass. New York is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games. The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. Take the Giants Sunday.
|11-23-19||Nevada +14 v. Fresno State||35-28||Win||100||47 h 33 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Nevada +14
We’ve made a lot of money fading Fresno State this year, and we’ll continue to do so tonight. The Bulldogs came into the season way overvalued due to being the best covering team in the nation the previous two years. But they only returned eight starters and it was a clear rebuilding year, yet the Bulldogs have been priced like the team they were the previous two seasons. And it continues to be the case week after week.
Fresno State is just 4-6 SU & 3-6-1 ATS this season. Three of their four wins came by 14 points or less, and yet they are laying 14 points here to a Nevada team that is better than all four teams they’ve beaten outside of Hawaii, which they only beat on a last-second field goal. Fresno has a win over Sacramento State by 14 as 24.5-point favorites, a win over New Mexico State by 13 as 21-point favorites and a win over UNLV as 16.5-point favorites.
Plus, Nevada is a 6-4 team that is coming off a bye week and will be fresh and ready to go. The Wolf Pack have done a good job of turning their season around by winning and covering against New Mexico at home and pulling the 17-13 upset at San Diego State as 17.5-point dogs in their last two games coming in. Now they carry that momentum into Fresno State this weekend.
Fresno State has been outgained in five of its last six games. The only exception was the 75 yards they outgained UNLV by in a very misleading 56-27 win. They were outgained by 153 yards in a 24-43 loss at Air Force, by 112 yards in a 31-41 home loss to Colorado State as 13.5-point favorites, by 41 yards in their 3-point win over Hawaii, by 106 yards in their 35-37 upset home loss to Utah State and by 219 yards in their 7-17 loss at San Diego State last week.
Fresno State had one of the best defenses in the country last year, but that has been far from the case this year. The Bulldogs are giving up 33.8 points and 473.3 yards per game in Mountain West play this season. This is a pretty bad conference, and they just gave up 425 yards to a bad San Diego State offense last week. They had allowed 500-plus yards in three straight games prior to that SDSU game as well. The back door will always be open for Nevada if needed, but I don’t think it will be needed. The road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. Bet Nevada Saturday.
|11-23-19||California v. Stanford -1.5||24-20||Loss||-110||40 h 3 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Stanford -1.5
Stanford sits at 4-6 on the season. The Cardinal need two more wins to get to a bowl game. That’s important to them because they have a 10-year bowl streak alive and haven’t missed a bowl since the 2008 season. And they certainly don’t want their season to come to an end at the hands of their biggest rival in Cal.
Stanford is 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS in its last nine meetings with California. And now the Cardinal just have to win this game at home to cover as only 1.5-point favorites. I believe this is a gift from oddsmakers because despite having a down year, Stanford is still better than Cal this season.
Injuries have hurt the Cardinal this season, but they have found their QB moving forward in Davis Mills. He threw for a school-record 504 yards against Washington State last week. He is completing 65% of his passes for 1,394 yards with an 8-to-3 TD/INT ratio on the season and is averaging 8.7 per attempt. He has actually been better than starter KJ Costello, and certainly better than their third-stringer, who was forced into action earlier this season.
Mills led the 23-13 win over Washington, and he also led the win at Oregon State. He just made his first start last week since that win over Washington back on September 5th. I think the Cardinal’s record would be better if he started every game this year. Cal just gave up 406 passing yards last week in a 17-41 loss to USC a week after giving up 407 passing yards to Washington State. It’s clear you can throw on this Cal defense, and Mills will exploit it.
Cal starting QB Chase Garbers just hasn’t been able to stay healthy, either. He was knocked out of the loss to USC last week with a shoulder injury, and he’s questionable to play this week. Backup Devin Monster has been awful in his place, completing just 50.8% of his passes with a 5-to-5 TD/INT ratio and 5.8 per attempt. Garbers is at 57.6% with an 8-to-2 ratio and 7.9 per attempt, so it’s a big downgrade if Modster gets the start.
This is a Cal offense that is one of the worst in the country. The Bears only average 18.9 points and 304.0 yards per game on the season, including 13.7 points and 268.7 yards per game on the road. The Bears are 2-5 in conference play and scoring just 15.9 points per game while averaging 265.4 yards per game and 4.4 per play. That’s another reason they shouldn’t be getting this much respect from oddsmakers. Roll with Stanford Saturday.
|11-23-19||Nebraska -4.5 v. Maryland||54-7||Win||100||40 h 44 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Nebraska -4.5
Despite having a disastrous season up to this point, the Nebraska Cornhuskers sit at 4-6 on the season and still within reach of a bowl game. You can bet Scott Frost doesn’t want the embarrassment of missing out on a bowl again, and he’ll have his players ready to go Saturday in Maryland.
Conversely, Maryland just suffered its seventh loss of the season and sits at 3-7 on the year. The Terrapins know they won’t be going to a bowl game, and I question their motivation. This team has rarely even been competitive in Big Ten play this season. The Terrapins are 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in Big Ten action, getting outscored by 26.0 points per game. They are a disaster right now, and head coach Mike Locksley is in trouble.
It’s time to ‘buy low’ on Nebraska, which is 1-9 ATS in its 10 games this season while burning the betting public week after week. They want nothing to do with this team now. But it’s pretty easy to see the Huskers are better than their 4-6 record as they have continually blown lead after lead and cover after cover in the second half of games this season. I don’t expect this game to even be close to give them a chance to blow it.
Nebraska has actually outgained six of its last nine opponents with the only exceptions being a home game against Ohio State, and road losses to Purdue and Minnesota. They actually outgained Wisconsin by 11 yards last week despite losing 21-37. Their offense racked up 493 total yards on Wisconsin’s vaunted defense with 273 rushing and 220 passing. Adrian Martinez is back to 100% healthy, and this offense should continue to flourish the final two weeks of the season.
Maryland’s offense has been held to just 17.3 points and 283.7 yards per game in conference play this season, including 10.3 points and 194.0 yards per game in their last three. I just don’t think they can be trusted to score at all and keep up with Nebraska’s high-powered offense. Not to mention, the Terrapins are giving up 43.3 points and 504.9 yards per game in Big Ten play. With those numbers, you can see we are getting Nebraska at a discount this week.
The Huskers are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Terrapins are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games off a bye week. Maryland is 1-6 ATS in its last seven November games. I’m not concerned about Maryland coming off a bye because their season is over and they aren’t excited at all about this game. Nebraska just had a bye prior to Wisconsin and will still be fresh and ready to go. Take Nebraska Saturday.
|11-23-19||Western Kentucky v. Southern Miss -3.5||Top||28-10||Loss||-110||40 h 34 m||Show|
20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Southern Miss -3.5
I believe Southern Miss is a better team than Western Kentucky this year. But that’s only part of the handicap. A big part of the handicap is that Southern Miss is still alive for a Conference USA title, while Western Kentucky is not. And thus the Golden Eagles have the motivational advantage coming into this one.
Southern Miss is tied for first place in the C-USA West with LA Tech at 5-1 within the conference. But the Golden Eagles lost to LA Tech, so they don’t hold the tiebreaker. However, they got a huge break when LA Tech had its QB and Top WR suspended last week and this week. After losing to Marshall badly last week, LA Tech now travels to face UAB this week and is nearly a 7-point underdog. Chances are LA Tech loses that game, meaning a win for Southern Miss would put them in first place in the C-USA West.
Western Kentucky is 4-2 within the conference. They trail both Marshall (5-1) and Florida Atlantic (5-1). The problem is that WKU lost to both of those teams, thus they are essentially two games back in the division. They essentially have no chance of winning C-USA East now and thus don’t have much to play for. They are already bowl eligible, which is a nice accomplishment in itself after what this program has gone through the last few seasons.
Southern Miss is the real deal this season. It is 7-3 this year with its only losses all coming on the road to Alabama, Mississippi State and LA Tech. This despite facing a brutal schedule with only five home games this season compared to seven road games. The Eagles are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 24.7 points per game and outgaining them by 181 yards per game.
Western Kentucky is starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after going 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall and upsetting Arkansas last time out on the road. But against the two best teams they have faced in C-USA, they lost on the road to Marshall and at home to FAU by 11. All of their wins have come against suspect competition, and they also lost to Central Arkansas.
The Golden Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games. Southern Miss is 7-1 ATS in its last eight November games. And these teams have one common opponent in UAB. WKU beat UAB 20-13 at home, while Southern Miss crushed UAB 37-2 at home. Roll with Southern Miss Saturday.
|11-23-19||Michigan v. Indiana +10||Top||39-14||Loss||-110||40 h 34 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana +10
This is the ultimate sandwich spot for the Michigan Wolverines. They are coming off a huge win over their second-biggest rival in Michigan State. And next week they play their biggest rival in Ohio State. This is the game that they are likely to come out flat in as they won’t be up emotionally to face Indiana at all.
But the Hoosiers are no longer the easy pushovers they used to be. They are 7-3 this season with two of their losses coming on the road to Michigan State (by 9) and Penn State (by 7), covering the spread in both games as 14 and 15-point dogs, respectively. Their only blowout loss this season came to Ohio State, which is arguably the best team in the country.
Michigan is starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after covering four straight and six of its last seven. The oddsmakers are over adjusting here for it by making them double-digit road favorites. If this was a normal game, this line would be high as it is. But the fact that it’s a sandwich spot for Michigan is not being factored into the line.
Indiana outgained Penn State by 91 yards on the road last week and probably deserved to win. QB Peyton Ramsey has been playing some tremendous football in place of the injured Michael Penix Jr. Ramsey is completing 72.7% of his passes for 1,673 yards with a 10-to-3 TD/INT ratio and averaging 8.4 yards per attempt. He will be able to move the football on this Michigan defense.
Indiana has played Michigan really tough the last few years. Indeed, the Hoosiers are 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings. And despite being 0-4 SU, all four losses came by 11 points or less, including two in overtime. You can bet the Hoosiers want to end their long losing streak to the Wolverines and will be highly motivated to do so. And I think they finally have the team capable of pulling off the upset as they are complete on both sides of the football this year and showing some tremendous fight against good competition. This is their Super Bowl on Senior Day.
Plays against any team (Michigan) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team winning at least 80% of their games playing a good team that wins 60% to 80% are 46-17 (73%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Michigan is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games after scoring 31 points or more in three straight games. Indiana is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after having won four of its last five games. The Wolverines are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. The Hoosiers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record. Indiana is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall. Take Indiana Saturday.
|11-23-19||Boston College +20.5 v. Notre Dame||Top||7-40||Loss||-107||55 h 44 m||Show|
20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston College +20.5
Boston College needs one more win to get bowl eligible. They sit at 5-5 on the season and have two road games left at Notre Dame & Pitt. It won’t be easy as they’ll need to pull an upset to get bowl eligible for the 6th time in seven seasons under Steve Addazio.
The Eagles are in a great spot coming off their bye with two weeks to prepare for Notre Dame. They are better than their 5-5 record as they have gone 1-3 in games decided by 7 points or less. Their offense is really hitting on all cylinders right now. The Eagles have gained 500-plus yards in five of their last six games coming in.
Boston College is one of the best rushing teams in the country, averaging 282 rushing yards per game and 5.3 per carry. Notre Dame’s weakness has been stopping the run as they have given up 200-plus rushing yards four times this season and are allowing 169 rushing yards per game overall.
I had Notre Dame last week against Navy as I thought the 7-point spread was too short. And Notre Dame rolled to a 52-20 victory. But Navy rushed for 281 yards on them and gave the game away with four turnovers. And now Notre Dame will have to face a physical running team two weeks in a row.
Notre Dame is 4-11 ATS the week after facing Navy the last 15 years. It’s clear playing Navy takes a toll on them the next week. Boston College’s offensive line is better than Notre Dame’s defensive line, and that’s why the Eagles have a chance to keep this one close. That’s the key matchup in this game that is in Boston College’s favor.
Addazio is 15-5 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of Boston College. Notre Dame is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games after leading its last two games by 14-plus points at halftime. The Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss. Boston College is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 road games. The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Notre Dame. Bet Boston College Saturday.
|11-23-19||Minnesota v. Northwestern +14||38-22||Loss||-110||36 h 3 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Northwestern +14
I love fading Minnesota in this spot. The Golden Gophers just had their dreams of making the four-team playoff crushed with their loss to Iowa last week and their unbeaten season is over. Teams usually struggle to rebound following such a devastating loss, and many times it’s the kind of loss that beats a team twice. We’re just asking Minnesota not to win by more than two touchdowns this week, though.
Another reason Minnesota has no incentive to show up this week is because the result of this game means nothing. They could lose this game and beat Wisconsin next week and get to the Big Ten Championship Game. They could beat Northwestern this week, but they’d still have to beat Wisconsin next week to get to the title game. Essentially, this game means nothing in the grand scheme of things.
I am fairly certain this game means more to Northwestern. It’s their Super Bowl getting to face a Top 25 team at home. And It’s Senior Day, so you know the Wildcats will want to send their seniors out a winner. Pat Fitzgerald is one of the best motivators in college football, and his teams show up almost every week as a result. They will give the Gophers more of a fight than they bargained for this weekend.
A big reason Northwestern’s record is so bad is because they have played the 24th-toughest schedule in the country. Minnesota has played the 60th-ranked schedule, which is 34 spots lower. And Northwestern has four losses this season by 10 points or less, so they haven’t fared well in close games. I think this one will go down to the wire as well given the terrible spot for the Gophers.
Minnesota star QB Tanner Morgan hasn’t been cleared from concussion protocol. He is worth a lot of points to the spread over a pair of freshmen backups who are battling to replace him in practice this week if need be. And this line has been bet from Minnesota -7 to Minnesota -14 throughout the week, indicating that Morgan will likely play. But if he doesn’t play, we have some tremendous value here. I think it’s a good bet whether he plays or not, and this line move is unwarranted.
Minnesota has only beaten Northwestern by more than 14 points one time in the last 12 meetings, making for an 11-1 system backing the Wildcats pertaining to this 14-point spread. The Wildcats are 25-6-1 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet Northwestern Saturday.
|11-22-19||Colorado State +7 v. Wyoming||Top||7-17||Loss||-130||22 h 35 m||Show|
20* Colorado State/Wyoming ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Colorado State +7
The Colorado State Rams sit at 4-6 and in need of a win to keep their bowl hopes alive. That assures they’ll show up tonight at Wyoming, and I think they have a great chance to win this game outright.
The Rams have been grossly underrated after a slow start this season. They have gone 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall and have outgained five of seven opponents despite going just 3-4 SU during this stretch. They have several misleading finals this season against some very good teams.
On September 21st, Colorado State lost 35-41 to Toledo despite outgaining them by 147 yards. They only lost 24-34 at Utah State their next game as 24-point dogs. They did lose 10-24 at home to San Diego State but were only outgained by 3 yards. They won 35-21 at New Mexico as 5-point favorites and outgained them by 206 yards. They pulled the 41-31 upset at Fresno as 13.5-point dogs and outgained them by 112 yards. They blew out UNLV 37-17 as 7.5-point home favorites.
Last week, Colorado State gave Air Force everything they wanted. And that’s an Air Force team that is arguably the best in the Mountain West. The Rams led 14-10 heading into the 4th quarter, but were outscored 28-7 in the final period. They were going in at the 1-yard line to make it a 3-point game in the final minutes, but threw a 99-yard INT returned for a TD. They wound up losing by 17 as 10.5-point dogs, which was one of the worst bad beats of the season. They outgained Air Force by 33 yards in the loss. I think that misleading final is creating extra line value for us on Colorado State this week.
Wyoming had a chance to win the Mountain West, but lost at Boise State two weeks ago. They also lost at Utah State last week and now have no chance to win the Mountain West. Sitting at 6-4 on the season, they are already bowl eligible and have little to play for. I certainly question their motivation tonight compared to that of Colorado State, which is still playing for a bowl.
Wyoming lost starting QB Sean Chambers a couple weeks ago to a season-ending knee injury. That was a huge blow because backup Tyler Vander Waal has been awful in his place. Vander Waal is completing just 52% of his passes with one touchdown and three interceptions while averaging only 5.7 yards per attempt. He also is not a runner, whereas Chambers was a dual-threat who had 567 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 6.3 per carry on the ground. Not having to defend that dual-threat makes Wyoming’s offense one of the worst in the country now with Vander Waal.
Colorado State boasts one of the best offenses that Wyoming will have faced this season. The Rams average 30.6 points and 460.5 yards per game on the season. Wyoming has faced one of the worst schedule of opposing offenses in the country as their opponents only average 22.9 points and 367 yards per game on the year. And Wyoming is probably the biggest fraud of any bowl eligible team in the country. The Cowboys have actually been outgained in eight of their 10 games this season despite their 6-4 record.
Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Wyoming) - after having lost two of their last three games, with a winning record on the season are 48-17 (73.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Wyoming is 0-6 ATS after having lost two of its last three games over the last two seasons. Bet Colorado State Friday.
Note: Buy from +6.5 to +7 (-120)
|11-21-19||Colts +3.5 v. Texans||Top||17-20||Win||100||11 h 4 m||Show|
20* Colts/Texans AFC South No-Brainer on Indianapolis +3.5
The Indianapolis Colts are 6-2 this season in games started and finished by Jacoby Brissett this season. They lost the only two games he didn’t play the entire way to the Steelers and Dolphins. But they got him back last week, and the Colts promptly crushed the Jaguars 33-13 at home.
Brissett wasn’t asked to do much because the Colts ran all over the Jaguars for 264 rushing yards. That’s bad news for the Texans, which just gave up 263 rushing yards to the Ravens last week. The Texans lost that game 7-41 and were outgained by 259 yards. This is a team that I just don’t trust now now because they lost J.J. Watt to a season-ending injury and their offensive and defensive lines are terrible.
Yes, the Texans have the flash with Watson and his receivers, but the Colts have the substance. The Colts can sustain success because they have one of the league’s best offensive lines and also one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Colts are 11th in total defense at 325.6 yards per game while the Texans are 25th at 374.4 yards per game allowed. And keep in mind the Colts were banged up on D for much of the season but are as healthy as they’ve been now. And the Texans are banged up on D now.
The Colts own the Texans, going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Indianapolis is 6-1 SU & 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven trips to Houston. The Texans are 0-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Colts are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. Indianapolis is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. AFC South opponents. Houston is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 vs. a team with a winning record overall. Bet the Colts Thursday.
|11-21-19||NC State +2 v. Georgia Tech||26-28||Push||0||11 h 44 m||Show|
15* NC State/Georgia Tech ESPN ANNIHILATOR on NC State +2
The NC State Wolfpack sit at 4-6 on the season. They have a lot more to play for tonight as they still have a chance to make a bowl game if they win out. And with a game on deck at home against rival UNC, they have a legitimate chance to win their final two games of the season. Wrong team favored here.
Yes, NC State is just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall. But that’s why we are getting great value on the Wolfpack as underdogs to the worst team in the ACC in Georgia Tech tonight. And keep in mind those games were closer than the final scores. NC State outgained three of its six opponents during this 1-5 skid, including outgaining Louisville by 51 yards last week in a 20-34 loss.
Georgia Tech is every bit as bad as its 2-8 SU & 2-7-1 ATS record would indicate. The Yellow Jackets have been outgained in nine of their 10 games this season with the only exception being outgaining a bad Duke team by 6 yards. It’s a Georgia Tech team getting outgained by 121.7 yards per game on the season. To compare, NC State is still outgaining opponents by 6.3 yards per game on the season.
Plays on road underdogs (NC State) - after allowing 31 points or more in three straight games against an opponent that’s off a loss by 17 points or more are 64-27 (70.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Georgia Tech is coming off a 45-0 home loss to Virginia Tech while getting held to just 134 total yards. Yet the Yellow Jackets are favored this week. Give me a break. Georgia Tech is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games. The road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take NC State Thursday.
|11-20-19||Akron +32 v. Miami-OH||17-20||Win||100||8 h 28 m||Show|
15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Akron +32
The Akron Zips are 0-10 SU & 0-10 ATS this season. The chances of them going 0-12 ATS for the entire season are slim to none. Oddsmakers are going to adjust knowing that the betting public wants to keep fading them because they haven’t covered yet. And I think they’ve adjusted too much tonight.
The Zips just recently got starting QB Kato Nelson back from injury. He threw for 288 yards and two touchdowns against Eastern Michigan last week while averaging 8.7 yards per attempt. That’s the same Eastern Michigan team that just rolled Northern Illinois 45-17 on the road last night.
I just don’t think Miami Ohio is going to be motivated enough to put away Akron by 31-plus points tonight. Miami Ohio already clinched the MAC East last week with their win over Bowling Green. They have the tiebreaker on their closest pursuers with head-to-head wins, and I think they will be flat tonight as a result. They would need to be fully invested to cover this big of a number as they only have one win all season that would cover 32 points.
Plays against favorites of 31.5 or more points (Miami Ohio) - off a home win, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Zips are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Miami Ohio. Take Akron Wednesday.
|11-19-19||Eastern Michigan v. Northern Illinois -5||Top||45-17||Loss||-105||10 h 31 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Northern Illinois -5
The Northern Illinois Huskies kept their bowl hopes alive last week with a huge 31-28 road win at Toledo to improve to 4-6 on the season. Now they have two home games to finish the season and have a legit chance of making a bowl. They need to handle their business here against Eastern Michigan to do so.
Eastern Michigan is 5-5 this season with a home game on deck next week against Kent State that they will be heavily favored in. They know they can afford to lose this game and still make a bowl. Sure, they want to beat Northern Illinois, but it’s not as urgent to win this game as it is for the Huskies.
I simply believe NIU is the better team despite having the worse record. The Huskies have played a brutal schedule this season with seven road games compared to three home games. And those seven road games featured non-conference games at Utah, Nebraska and Vanderbilt, as well as trips to four of the best teams in the MAC in Ohio, Miami, Central Michigan and Toledo. The Huskies are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS at home this season outscoring opponents by 18.7 points per game and holding foes to 12.3 points and 217.3 yards per game.
Common opponents are a great way to compare teams. These teams have faced the same four opponents. Eastern Michigan is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS against them, getting outscored by 1.7 points per game and outgained by 68.7 yards per game and 0.9 yards per play. Northern Illinois is 2-2 SU & 2-2 ATS against those four teams, outscoring them by 1.7 points per game and only getting outgained by 27.3 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play.
I like the matchup for NIU on both sides of the ball. Their weakness this season has been stopping the run, but EMU only averages 118 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry. NIU is great against the pass, giving up just 208 passing yards per game, and they’ll be able to slow down an EMU offense averaging 273 passing yards per game. NIU has topped 200 rushing yards in two of its last three games coming in and should be able to run the ball at will on an EMU defense that allows 194 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry. The Eagles have also been terrible against the pass, giving up 63.4% completions and 8.3 yards per attempt.
Northern Illinois is 11-0 SU & 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 meetings with Eastern Michigan. The Huskies are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 games off an upset win as an underdog over a conference opponent. The Eagles are 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games off a win by more than 20 points. Eastern Michigan is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win. Bet Northern Illinois Tuesday.
|11-18-19||Chiefs -4 v. Chargers||Top||24-17||Win||100||34 h 56 m||Show|
25* MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Kansas City Chiefs -4
The Kansas City Chiefs just got Patrick Mahomes back from injury last week. He played as good as he could have and the Chiefs deserved to win, but special teams mistakes cost them in a 32-35 road loss to the Titans. It’s a Titans team that just simply has their number and has beaten some very good teams at home the last few seasons.
The Chiefs had 530 total yards on the Titans and obviously should have won in a very misleading loss. They outgained the Titans by 159 yards. Mahomes went 36-of-50 passing for 446 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. He has his full compliment of weapons now and the Chiefs will be tough to tame the rest of the way. The Chiefs are averaging 28.4 points and 404.4 yards per game this season, and that includes 2.5 games where they were missing Mahomes. I expect them to get 30-plus Monday.
Philip Rivers just hasn’t looked right all season. He is finally starting to show his age as his arm strength is awful. He went 17-of-31 passing for 207 yards with 3 interceptions against the Raiders last week and it would have been 5 INT's if not for two that were called back by penalties. The Chargers are scoring just 20.7 points per game this season. While the Chargers have a solid defense, their offense is holding them back, and I don’t think they can match the Chiefs score for score in this one.
I like the fact that the Chiefs are coming off a loss, which makes them even more motivated this week. The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games off a loss. Kansas City is 4-0 ATS in its last four games after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game. The Chiefs are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 vs. AFC West opponents. Kansas City is 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with the Chargers in games played away from Arrowhead Stadium. Bet the Chiefs Monday.