|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|02-12-23||Chiefs v. Eagles -120||Top||38-35||Loss||-120||105 h 13 m||Show|
25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia Eagles ML -120
Note: Scroll down to the bottom for my FREE Super Bowl Prop Bets
This is a great matchup for the Philadelphia Eagles. They will be able to run the football at will on the Kansas City Chiefs on offense, and they are perfectly set up to stop them defensively with their ability to defend the pass. The Eagles are better everywhere than the Chiefs except at quarterback and will win the battle at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.
The Eagles rank 4th in the NFL at 153.9 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry. The Chiefs allow 4.5 yards per carry on the season. And they faced the 2nd-easiest schedule of opposing rush offenses, so they haven't seen anything like this physical, read-option attack of the Eagles. Philadelphia faced a Top 10 schedule of opposing rush defenses, making their numbers even more impressive.
The Chiefs won't be able to run on Philadelphia and likely will abandon the running game for the most part. Mahomes isn't close to 100% and that showed against the Bengals as he didn't scramble until the game was on the line. He either moved up in the pocket or rolled out to the right, so the Eagles will be prepared for those two moves. The Eagles rank 1st in the NFL allowing just 171.0 passing yards per game, 1st in sack percentage (11.49%) and 1st in sacks per game (4.1). The Chiefs have two of the four worst offensive tackles in the NFL in terms of pressures allowed. Mahomes is going to be under duress for four quarters in this one.
A lot has been made about how the Eagles played the easiest schedule in the NFL. And while true, they handled their business. A counter argument is that the Eagles are actually 7-1 against teams with winning records this season while outscoring them by a total of 115 points, or by an average of 14.4 points per game. They had an easy path to the Super Bowl and will be fresh as a result after getting a bye, beating the Giants by 31 and the 49ers by 24 while receiving another bye prior to the Super Bowl. They couldn't possibly be more fresh.
Kansas City consistently found itself in one-possession games this season, including both playoff games with a 7-point win over the Jaguars and a 3-point win over the Bengals in which they are aided by the refs. They also had more injuries pile up in that win over the Bengals. They are without WR Hardman, while both Toney and Smith-Schuster are less than 100%. They also have CB Sneed and LB Gay banged up. The Eagles are in much better shape health-wise.
This line moved towards the Eagles on the opener and I agree with it. When the line moves towards one team in the Super Bowl off the opener, those teams have gone 11-4 ATS over the last 15 tries. The only reason the Eagles aren't -3 here is because the Chiefs have Mahomes. But the Eagles are better everywhere else and have no weaknesses. I expect them to lead from start to finish in this one as a result, just as they have for most of the season when Hurts has been on the field.
The Chiefs are 0-7 ATS following an ATS win this season. Kansas City is 3-11-1 ATS in its last 15 games following a SU win. The Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine playoff games. The last 9 reigning MVP's (Mahomes) who played in the Super Bowl all lost dating back to 2001. Bet the Eagles on the Money Line in Super Bowl 57 Sunday.
FREE Super Bowl Prop Bets:
These are my favorite prop bets in order from strongest to weakest, so adjust your bet sizing accordingly. Don't go too crazy on these. They can all be found at DraftKings.
Eagles 1H ML: -120
OVER 1.5 4th Down Conversions: -160
Kelce Anytime TD: -125
Eagles Most Sacks: -125
Both Teams to Score 1+ Rushing TD: +125
UNDER 3.5 Made FG's: -165
Largest Lead UNDER 14.5 Points: -135
Kelce OVER 78.5 Receiving Yards: -120
Sanders Anytime TD: +125
Chiefs UNDER 99.5 Rushing Yards: -110
Sanders OVER 61.5 Rushing Yards: -110
Will Both Teams make a 33-plus Yard FG: NO -115
Smith Longest Reception OVER 23.5: -125
Eagles OVER 2.5 Sacks: -140
2-Point Conversion Attempt: YES +120
Super Bowl MVP Bets:
|01-29-23||Bengals v. Chiefs UNDER 48||Top||20-23||Win||100||21 h 6 m||Show|
20* Bengals/Chiefs AFC Championship No-Brainer on UNDER 48
Patrick Mahomes is hobbled and not himself. Travic Kelce is nursing a back injury and questionable. And the Cincinnati Bengals are missing three starters along the offensive line. All these offensive injuries to both teams have me liking the UNDER in the AFC Championship Game. Plus, temps will be around 20 at kickoff and only getting colder as the night progresses with double-digit MPH winds as well.
Cincinnati has played four consecutive defensive battles and has one of the most underrated defenses in the NFL. Their last four games have seen 40, 43, 41 and 37 combined points. They have allowed 24 or fewer points in eight consecutive games, including 18 or fewer in six of those. They rode their defense to the Super Bowl last season and are doing it again this season.
Maybe the bigger surprise is just how well Kansas City has played defensively down the stretch. They have allowed just 16.8 points per game in their last four games and 297.4 yards per game in their last five games. They haven't allowed 350 or more yards in any of their last six games. They will have a good game plan to slow down Joe Burrow and this Cincinnati offense in this rematch from a 24-27 road loss.
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. This will be the 4th meeting between the Chiefs and Bengals in the past two seasons. They know each other inside and out, and that favors the defenses more than the offenses. That's especially the case here since both defenses are very healthy while both offenses are banged up.
The UNDER is 9-1 in Bengals last 10 playoff games. The UNDER is 13-3-1 in Bengals last 17 games vs. AFC opponents. The UNDER is 43-19-2 in Bengals last 64 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Kansas City. The UNDER is 6-1 in Chiefs last seven home games. Cincinnati is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 games as a road underdog. Kansa City is 6-0 UNDER after scoring 25 or more points in two consecutive games this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
FREE 6-Point Teaser: 49ers +8.5/Bengals +7.5
|01-29-23||49ers +3 v. Eagles||Top||7-31||Loss||-115||6 h 0 m||Show|
20* 49ers/Eagles NFC Championship No-Brainer on San Francisco +3
I've been waiting for a +3 on the 49ers all week and it has finally started to pop up at multiple books this morning. Grab a +3 if available or buy it to +3 (-120) or better. The 49ers are showing tremendous value catching a full field goal against the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship Game.
The 49ers are the better team in my opinion. They have gone 12-0 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall. They have scored at least 31 points in eight of those 12 games, and they have allowed an average of just 14.9 points per game during this winning streak. They have the best defense in the NFL and an underrated offense with Brock Purdy, who has a 16-to-3 TD/INT ratio in leading the 49ers to each of their last eight victories.
The Eagles have played the easiest schedule in the NFL this season. That schedule has been very easy down the stretch as they have faced the Giants three times, the Saints, Cowboys, Bears, and Titans in their last seven games. This is a big step up in class for them and easily the toughest opponent they have faced all season.
One key matchup that favors the 49ers is the ground game. The Eagles have one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL and have allowed 106 or more rushing yards in 12 of their last 14 games overall. They allowed 99 and 87 yards in the other two instances. The 49ers rely heavily on running the football as they have rushed for at least 153 yards in six of their last seven games overall. They will be able to get what they want on the ground, which is going to continue to take a lot of pressure off Purdy.
The Eagles need to be able to run the ball to be successful on offense. In their last three losses, they managed just 67 rushing yards against the Saints, 87 against the Cowboys and 94 against the Commanders. Well, now they are up against a 49ers defense that ranks 2nd allowing just 79.0 rushing yards per game and 2nd at 3.4 yards per carry. The 49ers will shut down their running game and make Jalen Hurts try and beat them through the air. He is the worse passer of these two quarterbacks.
Kyle Shanahan is 11-1 ATS in January games as the coach of San Francisco. I give the edge to Shanahan over Nick Sirianni and it's not even close when you compare playoff experience between the two. I trust Shanahan to make some key decisions here that will help put the 49ers in position to win, and Sirianni to make some mistakes for the Eagles with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Bet the 49ers Sunday.
FREE 6-Point Teaser: 49ers +8.5/Bengals +7.5
|01-22-23||Cowboys v. 49ers -4||Top||12-19||Win||100||50 h 53 m||Show|
25* NFL Divisional Round GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers -4
This line should be closer to 49ers -7. The Dallas Cowboys are getting too much respect for their win in prime time Monday Night over the Tampa Bay Bucs. They beat a washed up Tom Brady who was playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Dak Prescott had a career game, and just everything that could go right for Dallas did.
Now the Cowboys are in a terrible spot playing their 4th consecutive road game and on a short week. These haven't been short trips either as all four have been 700-plus miles for the Cowboys. They won't have much left in the tank this week for the 49ers, who played last Saturday and have had two extra days to rest and prepare for this game than the Cowboys. This is where the Cowboys' season comes to an end in blowout fashion.
They have to play the hottest team in the NFL in the 49ers, who have won 10 consecutive game the last six of which have come with Brock Purdy at quarterback. The 49ers have scored 35-plus points in five of the six games started by Purdy with the lone exception being against the Seahawks in his second start on the road. They also kneeled at the 1-yard line to end that game. Purdy has a 16-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season and is averaging 9 yards per attempt.
The 49ers rank 5th in scoring offense at 27.3 points per game, 5th in total offense at 373.4 yards per game and 3rd at 6.0 yards per play. The 49ers rank 1st in scoring defense at 16.7 points per game, 2nd in total defense at 302.3 yards per game and 4th at 5.0 yards per play. They are the most complete team in the NFL with almost zero weaknesses. They are also as healthy as they have been all season with all of their key weapons and defenders healthy.
Things won't come nearly as easy for Dak Prescott as they did against the Bucs. The Cowboys have a suspect offensive line and the 49ers have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL, plus they give up nothing against the run. Purdy is playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, which will negate Dallas' pass rush, which is the strength of their team. Micah Parsons won't be all over Purdy like he was all over Tom Brady. The Cowboys have a vulnerable secondary that Purdy will be able to exploit, plus the 49ers will have their way on the ground against the Cowboys, too. They have rushed for 153 or more yards in all six games with Purdy under center.
Dallas was not playing well prior to the Tampa Bay game. They lost 26-6 at Washington in Week 18 against third-string QB Sam Howell. They beat a Titans team that was resting starters and playing a 3rd-string QB and needed to pull away in the 4th quarter just to do that. They needed a late turnover from the Eagles to beat them with backup QB Minshew at home. They lost to the Jaguars in OT on the road. And they needed a last-second drive to beat the lowly Houston Texans by 4 at home. They were playing like shit prior to that win over the Bucs, which was clearly the aberration.
Meanwhile, the 49ers have gone 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with seven wins by 13 points or more while outgaining nine of their 10 opponents. The lone exception was against the Raiders on January 1st which was clearly a letdown spot. The 49ers spent NYE in Vegas and probably partied too hard, thinking they'd just have to show up to win against a backup QB. That performance can be forgiven. When they have been locked in, they have been absolutely dominant. The 49ers have outscored their opponents by an average of 16.2 points per game during their 10-game winning streak.
The 49ers have a huge advantage in the coaching department with Shanahan over McCarthy, too. Shanahan is 10-1 ATS in January games as the coach of San Francisco. The 49ers are 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS at home this season outscoring opponents by 13.7 points per game. San Francisco is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 home games dating back to last season. The 49ers won 23-17 at Dallas in the playoffs last season. The Cowboys have exactly one playoff road win since 1993. Dak is 1-4 ATS in his playoff career. Bet the 49ers Sunday.
|01-22-23||Bengals v. Bills -5.5||27-10||Loss||-110||46 h 23 m||Show|
15* Bengals/Bills AFC ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo -5.5
These are two teams coming off misleading results in the Wild Card Round. The Bills should have beaten the Dolphins by more when you look at the numbers, while the Bengals should have lost outright to the Ravens. Those misleading results have provided us with some line value to pull the trigger on the Buffalo Bills this week. They should be closer to 7-point favorites against the Bengals at home this week when you factor in everything.
The Bills have won eight consecutive games and are playing with a lot of motivation for Damar Hamlin, plus the fact that they've never won a Super Bowl and feel like they should have won last year. They are on a mission this season, and it's the defending AFC champion Bengals standing in their way this week, which only adds to the motivation.
The Bills felt like they just had to show up to win last week, and it showed after jumping out to a 17-0 lead they found themselves in a dog fight with the Dolphins. They survived 34-31, but it was a bigger blowout than the final score. The Bills outgained the Dolphins by 192 yards and held to them to just 231 total yards, which should make it impossible for them to score 31 points. But the Bills committed three turnovers that set up easy scoring opportunities for the Dolphins. Look for them to clean it up this week.
The Bengals beat the Ravens 24-17 at home last week. They won despite getting outgained by 130 yards and racking up only 234 yards of total offense. That came a week after the Bengals beat the Ravens 27-16 in Week 18 despite getting outgained by 129 yards and being held to 257 yards. Their luck runs out this week on the road in a hostile environment against a much better team in the Bills.
A big reason the Bengals have struggled on offense the past two weeks averaging just 245.5 yards per game against the Ravens is because of a banged-up offensive line. The Bengals will now be down three starters on the offensive line this week against the Bills. Joe Burrow is going to be under duress the entire game. He was sacked a ton in the playoffs last year, but his defense and his kicker bailed him out. The defense won't stop this potent Bills offense, and he won't be bailed out this week when he's getting sacked more than a handful of times. And this is coming from one of the biggest Burrow believers you will find. I just think this is too much for him to handle this week.
Buffalo averages 6.1 yards per play on offense and allows 5.0 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.1 yards per play this season. Cincinnati averages 5.4 yards per play on offense and allows 5.5 yards per play on defense, breaking dead even on a yards per play basis. This shows Buffalo is by far the superior team.
The Bills are 7-1 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 12.7 points per game. Sean McDermott is 11-1 ATS following a win by 3 points or less as the coach of Buffalo. The Bills are 7-0 ATS following a win by 3 points or less over the last three seasons. Bet the Bills Sunday.
|01-21-23||Jaguars v. Chiefs UNDER 53||Top||20-27||Win||100||24 h 53 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Chiefs UNDER 53
This total is way too high given how well both of these defenses have been playing down the stretch, especially the Chiefs. The improvement of this Kansas City defense has been flying under the radar. They have allowed just 17.8 points per game and 285 yards per game in their last four games overall.
The Jaguars have allowed just 13 points per game and 284 yards per game in their last four games overall. That includes the 30 points they allowed to the Chargers last week, which was very fluky because it came with five turnovers from the Jaguars who gave the Chargers a ton of short fields en route to a 27-0 lead. That game saw 61 combined points with a big Jaguars comeback, but it shouldn't have since the Chargers only had 320 total yards while the Jaguars had 390 in comeback mode. That result has inflated this total this week.
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and this will be the 2nd meeting between the Chiefs and Jaguars at Arrowhead Stadium this season. The Chiefs won that first meeting 27-17 for just 44 combined points. The Jaguars were held to just 315 total yards in defeat. The Chiefs moved the ball well, but I expect the Jaguars to be much better defensively in the rematch. And Kansas City is good at sitting on the ball and milking clock with a lead, which is why they always tend to play in closer game because they quit scoring and let teams back in it. That makes them a great UNDER team.
The UNDER is 6-2 in Chiefs eight home games this season with an average of just 44.5 combined points per game. The UNDER is 9-2 in Jaguars last 11 games after allowing 30 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings. The UNDER is 7-0 in Jaguars last seven games vs. good offensive teams that average 6 or more yards per play in the second half of the season. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|01-16-23||Cowboys v. Bucs +3||Top||31-14||Loss||-115||165 h 59 m||Show|
25* NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Bucs +3
The Dallas Cowboys haven't won a road playoff game since January of 1993. Tom Brady is 7-0 in his career against the Cowboys including a 19-3 win at Dallas earlier this season. The Cowboys failed to reach the red zone once in that first meeting. The Cowboys are 1-4 on grass this season while going 11-1 on turf, and they will be outdoors on grass here where their speed isn't as much of a factor.
Dak Prescott is also 0-4 ATS in the playoffs in his career. Prescott tied for the NFL lead in interceptions this season despite missing five games. He was terrible in a game the Cowboys were trying to win last week against Washington. He went 14-of-37 for 128 yards with one touchdown and one interception while averaging just 3.5 yards per attempt.
The Cowboys lost that game 26-6 to the Commanders as 7-point road favorites. Their 15 'drives' went like this; fumble, 3 and out, 3 and out, pick-6, 3 and out, 3 and out, TD, 3 and out, 3 and out, 3 and out, 3 and out, turnover on downs, 3 and out, 3 and out, 3 and out. That doesn't look like a team that is playoff-ready, and certainly not one that should be laying points on the road.
Tom Brady had his best game of the season against the Carolina Panthers in Week 17 with a spot in the playoffs on the line. Brady went 34-of-45 for 432 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions to lead the Bucs to a 30-24 win. He has all of his weapons healthy and may be getting back some key pieces along the offensive line. The Bucs were able to rest starters for the majority of the game against the Falcons last week and will be fresh and ready to go.
I trust Brady over Prescott, and I also trust this Tampa Bay defense over this Dallas defense. The Cowboys gave up 40 points and 503 yards to the Jaguars, 34 points and 442 yards against the Eagles and 26 points and 309 yards against the Commanders in three of their last four games. The other game be thrown out as the Titans rested their starters in Week 17.
The Bucs rank 13th in scoring defense at 21.1 points per game on the season and you can throw out the 30 points they gave up to the Falcons in Week 18 because they rested starters on defense. The Bucs also rank 9th in total defense at 324.3 yards per game and 10th at 5.1 yards per play. They held the Cowboys to 3 points and 244 total yards in that first meeting back in Week 1 this season.
Teams that have played the tougher schedule than their opponent on the season have been great bets in the wild card round. The Bucs played the 13th-ranked schedule, while the Cowboys plays the 29th. The team that played the tougher schedule is 54-28-2 ATS since 2002 in the wild card round. If the difference in SOS is 10 or more, the team that played the tougher schedule is 30-9-1 ATS.
The Bucs are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games after gaining less than 250 total yards in their previous game. Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Plays against favorites (Dallas) - in a game between two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a loss by 10 points or more are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet the Bucs Monday.
|01-14-23||Chargers v. Jaguars +2.5||30-31||Win||100||68 h 42 m||Show|
15* Chargers/Jaguars AFC Saturday Night BAILOUT on Jacksonville +2.5
The Jacksonville Jaguars have all the momentum heading into the playoffs. They went 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their final five games overall and needed every single victory just to get into the playoffs. Teams that come into the playoffs with momentum are dangerous teams.
That explains why Brandon Staley played his starters for so long with Herbert and Allen still in the game well into the 4th quarter against the Broncos last week. But they fell short 28-31, which ended their four-game winning streak. They put a lot into that game to try and win it, and it proved costly as two of their best players in DE Bosa and WR Williams left the field with injuries. Bosa is good to go this week even if hobbled, but Williams was carted off with a back injury and is very questionable.
The key to the Chargers' turnaround down the stretch was getting both WR Williams and WR Allen back on the field healthy. But without Williams they are much easier to defense because he is such a great deep ball threat, and a great jump ball receiver in red zone opportunities. I have no doubt head coach Staley regrets his decision to play the starters in a meaningless Week 18 game.
The Jaguars have a big rest advantage here as they beat the Titans on Saturday last week, so they will be on normal rest. The Chargers played on Sunday and will now be on a short week with travel having to fly down to Jacksonville. The edge in rest and preparation goes to the Jaguars, and the coaching edge certainly goes to the Jaguars as well. Doug Pederson is 5-1 ATS as a head coach in the playoffs guiding the Eagles to a Super Bowl win even with Nick Foles. Staley will be making his first playoff appearance as a head coach, as well most of their players.
A lot of people want to throw out that first meeting between the Jaguars and Chargers this season because Herbert was coming back from injury, and they didn't have Williams or Allen. Those are fair points. But the Jaguars beat them 38-10 and totally dominated. Trevor Lawrence went 28-of-39 for 262 yards with three touchdowns and zero picks. They rushed for 151 yards as a team. They held the Chargers to just 312 total yards despite playing come from behind style football.
A lot is being made of this QB battle between Lawrence and Herbert, but I think a key factor is that the Jaguars are going to be able to run the football while the Chargers are not. That will make life much easier on Lawrence and much more difficult on Herbert. Lawrence has been great down the stretch with a 15-to-2 TD/INT ratio in his last nine games and is living up to his full potential under Pederson.
The Chargers rank 28th against the run allowing 145.8 yards per game and dead last (32nd) at 5.4 yards per carry. The Jaguars rank 12th against the run at 114.8 yards per game and 7th at 4.2 yards per carry. Travis Etienne, who has rushed for 1,125 yards and 5.1 per carry this season, is going to have a monster game to lead the way. I trust Pederson to stick to the run knowing this is his greatest advantage in this game.
The Chargers are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after scoring 25 points or more in two consecutive games. Wrong team favored here given all the factors working in Jacksonville's favor, including momentum, rushing, coaching and rest and preparation advantages. Roll with the Jaguars Saturday.
BONUS FREE NFL TEASERS:
7-Point Teaser: 49ers -2.5/Bengals -2.5 or better
6-Point Teaser: Jaguars +8.5/Bucs +8.5
|01-14-23||Seahawks v. 49ers UNDER 43||Top||23-41||Loss||-110||113 h 55 m||Show|
20* Seahawks/49ers NFC No-Brainer on UNDER 43
There is a flood watch in Santa Clara on Saturday with a 100% chance of rain and 30-40 MPH winds in the morning. It is expected to clear out a little by game time, but it's likely going to be a sloppy field worst case. We don't need the weather help to cash this UNDER, but it's certainly a bonus.
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. This will be the 3rd meeting this season between these division rivals. The 49ers won 27-7 for 34 combined points in the first meeting. Seattle's only score came on a blocked FG return TD. The 49ers won 21-13 in the 2nd meeting for 34 combined points again. Seattle's lone TD came in garbage time trailing 21-6 with under four minutes to play.
So this Seattle offense has only scored one TD in eight quarters against this elite 49ers defense this season, and it came in garbage time of a blowout. The 49ers rank 1st in scoring defense at 16.3 points per game, 1st in total defense at 300.6 yards per game and 4th at 5.0 yards per play. Nothing is going to come easy for Seattle, which has average just 246.5 yards per game in two meetings with the 49ers this season.
Seattle's defense has been playing much better down the stretch. They have held their last four opponents to an average of just 16.8 points per game in their last four games, which is impressive when you consider they faced the 49ers and Chiefs during this stretch. They held the Chiefs to just 297 total yards, the Jets to 279 total yards and the Rams to 269 total yards in their last three games heading into the playoffs. But Seattle is scoring just 16.3 points per game in its last four games overall as well.
Wild Card Round UNDERS are 27-11 dating back to 2012. The UNDER is 4-0 in Seahawks last four games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in 49ers last four playoff games. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.
BONUS FREE NFL TEASERS:
7-Point Teaser: 49ers -2.5/Bengals -2.5 or better
6-Point Teaser: Jaguars +8.5/Bucs +8.5
|01-09-23||TCU v. Georgia OVER 62.5||Top||7-65||Win||100||143 h 39 m||Show|
20* TCU/Georgia National Championship No-Brainer on OVER 62.5
We saw a couple shootouts in both College Football Playoff Semifinals. It should be more of the same in the Championship Game with perfect conditions inside the dome at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles Monday night.
TCU racked up 488 yards in a 51-45 win over Michigan in the semifinals. If they can score 51 points on Michigan I like their chances of being able to score on Georgia to do their part in getting this one OVER the total. The Hornets Frogs are scoring 41.1 points per game on the season while averaging 475.6 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play.
Georgia racked up 533 total yards in a 42-41 win over Ohio State in the semifinals. The Bulldogs have one of their best offenses in program history, averaging 39.4 points per game, 495.6 yards per game and 7.2 yards per play this season. They should shred a TCU defense that is actually a step down in class for them compared to what they faced against Ohio State and what they face on the regular in the SEC.
Both of these defenses are clearly vulnerable. TCU just allowed 45 points and 528 yards to Michigan after allowing 31 points and 404 yards to Kansas State. Georgia just allowed 41 points and 467 yards to Ohio State after allowing 30 points and 549 yards to LSU, including 502 passing. QB's Max Duggan and Stetson Bennett are both in line for monster games in this one.
Sonny Dykes is 33-13 OVER in non-conference games as a head coach. The OVER is 5-1 in Horned Frogs last six non-conference games. The OVER is 4-1 in Horned Frogs last five bowl games. Only getting a little over a week to prepare for one another favors the offenses over the defenses. Bet the OVER in the National Championship Game Monday.
|01-08-23||Cowboys v. Commanders +7||6-26||Win||100||66 h 49 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Commanders +7
The Dallas Cowboys are technically still alive for the No. 1 seed and the NFC East title. But the Philadelphia Eagles are 14-point favorites over the New York Giants, who are expected to be resting starters. They would need the Eagles to lose, and it's just unlikely to happen and they know it. Expect the Cowboys to maybe try for a quarter or two, but to pull their starters in the second half.
Either way, the Washington Commanders are capable of hanging with the Cowboys even if they were to play all their starters for four quarters. The Cowboys are getting getting too much respect for their 6-1 run to close out the season. The run has come against the Giants, Colts, Texans and Eagles at home as well as the Titans on the road.
The Titans were playing their backups last week in what was a one-score game in the 4th quarter, the Eagles should have beaten them even with Gardner Minshew, and the Cowboys needed a last-second TD to beat the Texans in three of their last four games, while also losing outright at Jacksonville in between.
It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Commanders after going 0-3-1 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall against a brutal schedule of the Giants (twice), 49ers and Browns. They were competitive in all four games. They outgained the Giants by 99 yards in a tie, outgained the Giants by 95 yards ina. loss, were only outgained by 22 yards by the 49ers in a misleading final, and were only outgained by 41 yards by the Browns in a misleading final.
Carson Wentz returned to the field and promptly threw 3 interceptions to cost them the game against the Browns last week. So getting Sam Howell at QB or a mix of him and Taylor Heinecke is an upgrade. Howell could give this offense a spark, and he won't stop coming for four quarters. The Commanders won't lay down for the Cowboys as these are their hated rivals. They will try to win this game, and it should be enough to stay inside this inflated number Sunday.
The Cowboys are 1-8 ATS in their last nine January games. Dallas is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five road games. The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Dallas is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games following a cover as a double-digit favorite. Roll with the Commanders Sunday.
|01-08-23||Browns v. Steelers -2.5||Top||14-28||Win||100||112 h 53 m||Show|
25* AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5
Mike Tomlin has never finished worth than .500 in his career as a head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers. These players take on his mentality and have dug themselves out of a hole to put themselves in position to make the playoffs. With a win and losses by both the Patriots and Dolphins on Sunday, the Steelers will be going to the playoffs. Both the Patriots and Dolphins are underdogs in their games.
This turnaround has happened since TJ Watt returned from injury. Pittsburgh is 58-26-2 with Watt and 1-10 without him in his career. The Steelers are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming to the Ravens 14-16 after committing three turnovers in the red zone. They deserved to win that game, too. They have also beat the Colts, Falcons and Panthers on the road as well as the Raiders at home.
Watt and this Pittsburgh defense aren't allowing anything. They have held their last six opponents all to 17 points or fewer and an average of just 14.7 points and 259.2 yards per game in those six games. The last three games have been mighty impressive as they outgained the Panthers by 116 yards and held them to 209 yards, outgained the Raiders by 149 yards and held them to 201 yards and outgained the Ravens by 111 yards and held them to 240 yards.
Kenny Pickett is proving he was deserving as the pick to become their franchise quarterback. He has delivered two clutch game-winning drives the last two weeks and is his confidence is growing because of it, and so is the confidence his teammates have in him. Pickett is taking care of the football, too. He has thrown just one interception in his last six starts.
The Cleveland Browns are getting too much respect for their upset win at Washington last week. Carson Wentz gave that game away by throwing three interceptions. Deshaun Watson only had nine completions in the win and has been worse than Jacoby Brissett. Watson is completing just 56.7% of his passes for 872 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions while averaging just 6.2 yards per attempt in his five starts this season.
The key matchup here is that the Steelers are going to control this game by running the football at will against a soft Cleveland run defense. The Steelers have rushed for at least 102 yards in seven of their last eight games overall as they are riding Najee Harris. The Browns rank 25th against the run allowing 134.4 rushing yards per game and 25th allowing 4.8 yards per carry.
Cleveland is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games when playing its 2nd consecutive road game. Kevin Stefanski is 3-13 ATS after covering the spread in two of his last three games as the coach of the Browns. The Browns are 18-37-2 ATS in their last 57 games following an ATS win. The Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games v. a team with a losing record. Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Browns. Take the Steelers Sunday.
|01-08-23||Jets v. Dolphins||Top||6-11||Win||100||112 h 53 m||Show|
20* AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Dolphins PK
This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Miami Dolphins. They have gone 0-5 in their last five games overall with each of their last four losses coming by one score. They were in a one-score game with the 49ers as well in the 4th quarter in a misleading loss. So they easily could have won any of their last five games.
The Dolphins definitely should have won their last two games as they outgained the Packers by 75 yards in a loss and outgained the Patriots by 84 yards in a loss. But Tua threw three interceptions after getting concussed against the Packers, and Teddy Bridgewater threw a pick-six against the Patriots that changed the game and knocked him out of the game on the same play.
The Dolphins will likely go to third-string QB Skylar Thompson for this one, and this line is being adjusted too much because of it. Thompson has gotten his feet wet in a few games already this season and has handled himself well. Giving him an entire week to prepare to be the starter will pay big dividends for him. He is ready for this moment.
Let's just look at this from a motivation perspective. The Dolphins still have a great chance to make the playoffs because a win and a loss by the Patriots gets them in. Well, the Patriots are 7.5-point road underdogs to the Buffalo Bills as of this writing. The Bills need that game to secure the No. 1 or No. 2 seed, so they won't make it easy on the Patriots. I would say the Dolphins are actually the favorites to get the final wild card spot in the AFC given the scenarios.
Meanwhile, the New York Jets were just eliminated from playoff contention with their 23-6 loss at Seattle last week. That followed up a 19-3 home loss to Jacksonville. I always like fading teams coming off their 'dream crusher' loss because they have a hard time getting back up off the mat. The Jets will have a hard time being motivated for this game after just getting eliminated from playoff contention in Week 17.
Plays on home teams (Miami) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 points or more, off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS since 1983. The Jets are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games vs. AFC East opponents. Miami is 18-8 ATS in its last 26 home games. The Dolphins are 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Miami.
This is also a tough travel spot for the Jets having to come fly home to New York from Seattle to fly back out to Miami to play a game where the temps will be approaching 80 degrees, and I expect the Jets to run out of gas by the 4th quarter. Roll with the Dolphins Sunday.
|01-07-23||Chiefs v. Raiders +7.5||Top||31-13||Loss||-108||91 h 23 m||Show|
20* AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Las Vegas Raiders +7.5
The Las Vegas Raiders would love nothing more than to beat the Chiefs and keep them from a first-round bye and home-field advantage. They hate the Chiefs and only lost 29-30 at Kansas City as 7.5-point underdogs. Now they are 7.5-point home dogs in the rematch, so they haven't even adjusted for home-field advantage.
They are clearly adjusting too much for the Derek Carr to Jarrett Stidham at quarterback. Stidham played under Las Vegas head coach Josh McDaniels in New England, so he knows the system. And the Raiders had their best offensive performance of the season last week with Stidham at quarterback.
The Raiders racked up 34 points and 500 total yards against the best defense in the NFL in the 49ers. Stidham went 23-of-34 passing for 365 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. He made good use of his top two weapons in DeVante Adams and Darren Waller. Adams had seven receptions for 153 yards and two touchdowns, while Waller had three receptions for 72 yards and a score. The Raiders have the firepower to keep up with the Chiefs as they showed in that first meeting, and last week against the 49ers.
The Chiefs just have a way of playing to their level of competition. That's why they have only covered the spread in four of their 16 games this season. They just let the lowly Broncos hang around last week in a 27-24 home win as 13.5-point favorites. That's a Broncos team that was coming off a 51-14 loss to the Rams the previous week. Plus, all the pressure is on the Chiefs to get the win for the No. 1 seed, so the Raiders will kind of be free rolling here and playing more freely than the Chiefs.
Kansas City is 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 games following a win. The Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. AFC West opponents. The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. The Raiders are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Las Vegas is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. AFC West opponents. Kansas City is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points. These six trends coming for a mind-blowing 36-1 system backing Las Vegas. Bet the Raiders Saturday.
|01-02-23||Utah v. Penn State +2.5||Top||21-35||Win||100||67 h 43 m||Show|
25* Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State +2.5
The Penn State Nittany Lions had the quietest 10-2 season you'll ever hear about. Their only two losses came to Michigan and Ohio State, and they racked up 482 total yards on the Buckeyes and outgained them by 30 yards. Both teams are in the four-team playoff.
Penn State is a complete team on offense and defense. They scored at least 30 points in 10 of their 12 games this season, while also allowing 17 or fewer points in nine of their 12 games. Their only opt-outs are CB Joey Porter Jr. and WR Parker Washington. They have the depth and talent to replace these two.
Utah doesn't have the same luxury of trying to replace TE Dalton Kincaid, RB Tavion Thomas and CB Clark Phillips III, who was a first-team All-American by some outlets. Thomas rushed for 687 yards and seven touchdowns to lead the Utes in rushing. Bit the big loss is TE Kincaid, who is by far Cam Rising's favorite target, finishing with 70 receptions for 890 yards and eight touchdowns this season. He is Rising's security blanket on 3rd downs, and without him their QB will be lost.
Utah's offense was one of the best in school history, but not without Kincaid and Thomas. Utah's defense wasn't up to its usual standards though, and that was evident when they gave up 42 to UCLA and 42 to USC earlier this season. They benefited from facing two banged up QB's down the stretch for six of eight quarters against Oregon and USC. Both those teams run heavy read-option, and not having to worry about the QB run worked out well for the Utes. They still lost to Oregon, and Rising had a 1-to-5 TD/INT ratio in three road games this season against Oregon, Florida and UCLA.
The team that stops the run is going to have the upper hand in this game. I think Penn State is best equipped to do that when you look at the numbers. Penn State only allows 3.3 yards per carry against teams that averaged 4.3 per carry this season, holding them to 1.0 YPC less than their season averages. Utah allowed 3.9 YPC against teams that average 4.7 YPC, holding opponents to 0.8 YPC less than their season averages. I also trust Sean Clifford over Rising to make more plays through the air as he has the better weapons available, plus Utah doesn't get much pressure on opposing QB's without blitzing with one of the worst pressure rates in the country.
Simply put, Penn State is the better team that played the tougher schedule and should be favored in the Rose Bowl. The Nittany Lions outgained their opponents by 1.5 yards per play on the season while the Utes only outgained opponents by 1.0 yards per play. The Nittany Lions allow 4.6 YPP on defense while the Utes allow 5.7 YPP.
James Franklin is 8-0 ATS after scoring 35 points or more in a conference win as the coach of Penn State. Franklin is 13-1 ATS following two consecutive conference wins by 10 points or more as the coach of the Nittany Lions. The Nittany Lions are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall with a narrow loss to Ohio State and five blowout wins by 19 points or more, including four by 28 points or more. Bet Penn State in the Rose Bowl Monday.
|01-02-23||Tulane +2.5 v. USC||Top||46-45||Win||100||63 h 43 m||Show|
20* Tulane/USC Cotton Bowl No-Brainer on Tulane +2.5
Tulane will be the more motivated team in the Cotton Bowl Monday against USC. They flew under the radar all season despite winning the AAC Championship, and nobody is talking about them heading into bowl season, either. Now they are ready to prove their doubters wrong one last time as underdogs to USC in a game I fully expect them to win outright.
Tulane went 11-2 SU & 11-2 ATS this season with their only losses coming by 3 to Southern Miss and by 7 to UCF. They outgained Southern Miss by 198 yards so that loss was a complete fluke. And they avenged that defeat to UCF in the AAC Championship Game in emphatic fashion. They won 45-28 while racking up 648 total yards and outgaining the Knights by 238 yards in the rematch. They also beat Big 12 champ Kansas State 17-10 on the road earlier this season.
While Tulane really wants to be here and it shows as they have had zero opt-outs, USC does not want to be here. They had their sights set on making the four-team playoff with a win over Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Things were going great for the Trojans early with a 17-3 lead, but then QB Caleb Williams suffered a hamstring injury, and the defense got shredded in a 47-24 loss to Utah. A win would have put them in the four-team playoff.
Williams says he expects to play but even if he does, he won't be looking to test that hamstring too much as a dual-threat, which is what makes him such a great player. He isn't nearly as great of a passer when he doesn't have the threat of running. Plus, he won't have his two best offensive linemen as 3rd-team All-American C Brett Neilon and 1st-team All-American G Andrew Vorhees will both be out due to injury. He also won't have leading WR Jordan Addison (59 receptions, 875 yards, 8 TD) due to an ankle injury as he prepares for the NFL Draft.
Which team does a better job of stopping the run will decide this game. Tulane RB Tyjae Spears was banged up early in the season, but rushed for over 1,100 yards and averaged 8.9 yards per carry over his final seven games. He'll be up against a USC defense that ranks 125th in defensive rushing success rate. The Trojans allow 149 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry on the season. Compare that to Tulane, which only allows 3.9 yards per carry, and it's easy to see which team is going to win the battle at the line of scrimmage.
This is also a great matchup for the Tulane defense as their actual strength is defending the pass. They only allow 189 passing yards per game and 6.0 per attempt, holding opponents to 1.5 per attempt less than their season averages. USC averages 326 passing yards per game and 9.1 per attempt, and this could legitimately be the best secondary they have faced this season. Tulane only allows 4.8 yards per play on the season while USC allows 6.3 yards per play.
The Green Wave are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games overall. Tulane is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. The Trojans are 0-5 ATS in their last five bowl games. USC is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 neutral site games. They just don't care about winning this game as much as the Green Wave do, and that's going to be the biggest difference in this game. Take Tulane in the Cotton Bowl Monday.
|01-01-23||Vikings v. Packers -3||Top||17-41||Win||100||110 h 6 m||Show|
20* Vikings/Packers NFC North No-Brainer on Green Bay -3
The Green Bay Packers are about as healthy as they have been all season, and to no surprise it has coincided with their best stretch of the season. They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall to get right back into the playoff hunt. They need some help, but they are doing their part, and they will want revenge on the Vikings after losing at Minnesota in Week 1.
The Vikings are the most fraudulent 12-3 team in the history of the NFL. They are 11-0 in one score games this season and have only outscored their opponents by 5 total points on the season. Their luck runs out this week against a Packers team that wants it more. After all, the Vikings are locked into the No. 2 or No. 3 seed basically, which isn't that big of a difference.
While the Packers are outgaining their opponents by 6 yards per game on the season, the Vikings are actually getting outgained by nearly 50 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play. That's unheard of for a 12-3 team. They rank 28th in scoring defense at 24.9 points per game, 31st in total defense at 402.3 yards per game and 31st at 6.0 yards per play allowed. That's not a championship defense, and the Packers have been one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL since getting all their weapons healthy.
Kirk Cousins has always been worse outdoors and worse in any games that don't start at 1:00 EST on a Sunday. He does not handle these big stages well. It's going to be one of the best atmospheres of the season at Lambeau Field Sunday afternoon, and home-field advantage is worth at least 3 points for the Packers in this one. I think they're the better team right now and need it more.
Green Bay is 9-1 ATS in home games vs. conference opponents over the last two seasons. The Vikings are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Packers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home meetings with the Vikings. The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Bet the Packers Sunday.
|01-01-23||Rams v. Chargers OVER 40.5||Top||10-31||Win||100||110 h 5 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rams/Chargers OVER 40.5
The Los Angeles Chargers blew it in Week 18 last season against the Raiders with a chance to go to the playoffs with a win. Well, they don't have to worry about that any more as they just clinched a playoff spot over the Colts with a win on Monday Night Football. I think they will be playing loose and free in this game against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 17 and that favors their offense.
This Chargers offense has been much better since getting Mike Williams and Keenan Allen back from injury. The Chargers have averaged over 370 yards per game in their last three games with these two. Williams has 14 receptions for 259 yards and a touchdown in his last three games since returning from injury, while Allen has 31 receptions for 282 yards in his last three games alongside Williams.
The Rams have been playing loose and free since Baker Mayfield took over at quarterback. And now he has three games under his belt in Sean McVay's system and is clearly getting a lot more comfortable. That showed last week when the Rams hung 51 points and 388 total yards on a very good Denver defense. Mayfield had one of the most efficient games of his career, completing 24-of-28 passes for 230 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. The playbook will be even more open for him this week against the Chargers.
The Rams also finally got their running game going last week with 158 yards to help out Mayfield. Well, the weakness of this Chargers defense is stopping the run. They rank 26th in allowing 140.5 rushing yards per game and 31st allowing 5.3 yards per carry. So Mayfield will not have to do it all. I know the Chargers have been better of late defensively, but they have also benefitted from facing a couple terrible offenses in the Colts and Titans the last two weeks.
I think the fact that the Chargers have gone under the total in four consecutive games is keeping this total way lower than it should be. Those totals were all 45 or higher. Now this total is only 40.5, which is a big adjustment and way too big in my opinion. This total should be closer to 45, especially with the life this Rams offense has showed of late. And it's not like the Rams have been great defensively as they rank in the bottom half of the league in scoring defense and have allowed 24 or more points in five of their last seven games overall. Aaron Donald remains out for the Rams, and the Chargers have a ton of key injuries on defense as well.
The OVER is 6-0 in Chargers last six games after a win by 10 points or more. The OVER is 6-0 in Rams last six games after a home win by 10 points or more. The OVER is 7-0 in Rams last seven road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings. These four trends combine for a 24-1 system backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|01-01-23||Jets v. Seahawks OVER 41.5||6-23||Loss||-110||110 h 45 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Jets/Seahawks OVER 41.5
Mike White makes his much anticipated return to the lineup for the New York Jets this week. This offense has been much more efficient with White under center than Zach Wilson or Joe Flacco. This total against the Seahawks is way too low given that White is playing and the forecast. It's expected to be 45 degrees with 2 MPH winds and only a 4% chance of precipitation in Seattle Sunday afternoon.
The Seahawks are a dead nuts OVER team because they have a solid offense and a terrible defense. The Seahawks rank 9th in scoring offense at 24.3 points per game, 13th in total offense at 348.5 yards per game and 7th at 5.8 yards per play. This Seattle offense is expected to get Tyler Lockett back from injury this week, and RB Kenneth Walker should be good to go as well.
White put up 31 points and 466 yards against the Bears and 22 points and 486 total yards against the Vikings in his two healthy starts this week. He will have a big game against this Seattle defense as well. The Seahawks rank 29th in scoring defense at 25.3 points per game, 29th in total defense at 373.4 yards per game and 24th at 5.7 yards per play allowed.
No question the Jets have a good defense, but that is being factored into this total too much as this is one of the lowest totals this week. The Jaguars found plenty of success moving the football against them on the road last week racking up 365 total yards, but they had to settle for four field goals. The Lions had 359 yards against them the previous week and the Seahawks should find similar success as well. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|01-01-23||Cardinals v. Falcons OVER 41||19-20||Loss||-110||107 h 40 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cardinals/Falcons OVER 41
The Arizona Cardinals and Atlanta Falcons have nothing to play for this week. As a result, this is going to be a care-free game with plenty of offense and little defense being played. It will also be played inside the dome in Atlanta, and this is a very low total for a dome game.
The Cardinals are expected to get back Colt McCoy at quarterback this week. He is one of the best backup QB's in the NFL. He will be able to move the football and score points on an Atlanta defense that ranks 23rd in the NFL in scoring at 23.3 points per game, 28th in total defense at 373.0 yards per game and 29th at 5.8 yards per play.
Desmond Ridder will be making his third start of the season for the Falcons. We saw what Baker Mayfield did last week in his third start for the Rams. I think Ridder will have easily his best game yet as this is a big step down in class of opponent defense after facing two very good stop units in the Saints and Ravens in his first two starts. Now Ridder will be up against an Arizona defense that ranks 30th in scoring defense at 26.1 points per game and 22nd in total defense at 354.8 yards per game.
The OVER is 7-2 in Cardinals last nine games overall. The OVER is 5-1 in Cardinals last six games vs. NFC opponents. The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 67, 54, 57 and 47 points. The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Atlanta. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|01-01-23||Saints v. Eagles OVER 44||Top||20-10||Loss||-110||107 h 40 m||Show|
20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Saints/Eagles OVER 44
The Philadelphia Eagles are a dead nuts OVER team right now with or without Jalen Hurts. He's questionable to return this week, but Gardner Minshew once again showed he's probably the best backup QB in the league by nearly upsetting the Cowboys in a 34-40 road loss last week. I'm good with the OVER In this game with Minshew or Hurts.
The Eagles and their opponents have combined for 45 or more points in five consecutive games and eight of their last nine games overall. The OVER is 7-2 in those nine games. They will get their points, and I expect the Saints to chip in enough to push this total OVER the number.
This total has been set too low due to the Saints going under the total in four consecutive games. But they played in terrible conditions last week in Cleveland, and they have faced two elite defenses in the 49ers and Bucs during this stretch as well. The Eagles have some injuries in their secondary that can be exploited as we saw by the Cowboys last week. They have also allowed at least 99 rushing yards in 10 of their last 11 games overall and the Saints are a good rushing team. I have the feeling they are going to have to get more pass-happy this week to try and keep up with Philadelphia.
After some terrible weather last weekend, the weather looks good almost everywhere this week, including in Philadelphia. The forecast is calling for 56 degrees and 11 MPH winds with only a 7% chance of precipitation at kickoff on Sunday as of this writing on Friday. That sounds like perfect conditions for a shootout to me for an outdoor game.
The Saints and Eagles have combined for at least 45 points in five of their last six meetings. The OVER is 11-1 in Eagles last 12 home games. The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Philadelphia. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-31-22||Iowa -130 v. Kentucky||21-0||Win||100||14 h 42 m||Show|
15* Iowa/Kentucky Music City Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Iowa ML -130
Kentucky beat Iowa 20-17 last season in the Citrus Bowl. How excited do you think they're going to be to play the Hawkeyes again this season? The answer is not very. Meanwhile, Iowa will want revenge and will clearly bet the more motivated team. I fully expect the Hawkeyes to win this game given the motivational edge and a couple other key factors.
Iowa will have the best unit on the field, which is their defense. They allow just 14.4 points per game, 278.1 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play this season. They are only missing a couple players on defense due to opt-outs. They will be up against a Kentucky offense that won't have their two best players in QB Will Levis and RB Christopher Rodriquez, who will sit out to prepare for the NFL Draft. They will also be up against a suspect Kentucky offensive line, which may be the worst unit on the field.
Levis is a first-round pick at QB and Rodriquez is one of the best RB's in the draft. The downgrade to backup QB Kaiya Sheron is massive. He started one game this season against South Carolina and the Wildcats were upset 14-24 at home. He completed just 15-of-27 passes for 178 yards with two touchdowns and one interception in the loss. And that's a South Carolina defense that was one of the worst in the SEC this season. Rodriquez rushed for 903 yards and six touchdowns on 5.2 per carry in only eight games this season.
Iowa won't have QB Spencer Petras due to injury, and backup QB Alex Padilla entered the transfer portal. This could be addition by subtraction as no team in the country got worse QB play than Iowa. Third-string freshman Joey Labas could actually be an upgrade. Kentucky doesn't have game film on him, and he actually adds some mobility. Helping Labas out is the fact that TE Sam Laporta will play in this game despite being one of the top NFL TE prospects. He led the Hawkeyes in receiving with 53 receptions for 600 yards this season.
Iowa only allows 104 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry this season, while Kentucky allows 147 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry. This game will be won on the ground, and Iowa has the advantage. Iowa RB Kaleb Johnson (757 yards, 5.3 YPC, 6 TD) came on strong down the stretch and should lead this Iowa offense to enough points to win this game.
Iowa is 8-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Hawkeyes are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games away from home after playing a home game. Take Iowa on the Money Line Saturday.
|12-31-22||Kansas State v. Alabama -6.5||Top||20-45||Win||100||70 h 0 m||Show|
20* Kansas State/Alabama Sugar Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -6.5
It looks like Alabama is going to try to make a statement against Kansas State that they belonged part of the four-team playoff. Their two losses came by a combined 4 points on a last-second FG to Tennessee and a 2-point conversion to LSU. They have had no opt-outs so far and only some transfers of players that felt like they weren't getting enough playing time. The bad apples are gone, and the Crimson Tide look fully locked in for the Sugar Bowl.
The early money came on Kansas State with the anticipation that Alabama wouldn't care about this game and a bunch of guys would opt out. Instead, the Crimson Tide are expected to have five projected first-round picks playing in this game, including Top 10 picks in QB Bryce Young and LB Will Anderson. Their commitment to this bowl game just shows how much it means to Alabama.
Note that Alabama has been a double-digit favorite in every single game this season. So getting we are getting them as only 6.5-point favorites here against Kansas State, which is a tremendous value if they are locked in. The Big 12 is way down this season, which allowed the Wildcats to win it. That has played out in the bowls as the Big 12 is 1-3 in bowls thus far. The Wildcats are getting too much respect here against the Crimson Tide, and I expect this line to close -7 or higher so get it in early.
This will be by far Kansas State's toughest test of the season. This will actually be a step down in class for Alabama compared to what they have faced in the SEC. It's a bad matchup for the Wildcats because they need to run the football to score. They average as many rushing yards as they do passing yards this season.
Well, Alabama allows just 125 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season. Nick Saban is a genius with extra preparation, and the Crimson Tide will be prepared to stop this Kansas State rushing attack. Alabama allows just 18.0 points per game on the season. We saw Kansas State struggle to score against two of the set defenses they faced this season in Iowa State and Tulane. They managed just 10 points against Tulane and 10 against Iowa State.
Bryce Young leads an Alabama offense that puts up 40.8 points per game, 477 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play. This will be the toughest test of the season for this Kansas State defense. They have been vulnerable against the best offenses they have faced, allowing 38 points to TCU, 34 to Texas and 34 to Oklahoma. I can't see Alabama being held to less than 35 in this one, which is going to make it very difficult for Kansas State to hang. This game will be on a fast turf inside the Superdome in New Orleans which favors the athletes and the speed of Alabama over the blue-collared Kansas State players. The Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last six bowl games. Bet Alabama in the Sugar Bowl Saturday.
|12-30-22||South Carolina v. Notre Dame -2||Top||38-45||Win||100||65 h 25 m||Show|
20* South Carolina/Notre Dame Gator Bowl No-Brainer on Notre Dame -2
South Carolina is getting way too much respect heading into bowl season for upset wins over Tennessee and Clemson to close out the season. Hendon Hooker got injured for Tennessee and they were coming off the Georgia loss so they were flat. DJ Uliagalelei has one of his worst games of his career going 8-of-29 for 99 yards in the loss for Clemson. He was replaced in the ACC Championship Game, and should have been replaced much sooner in the season.
Keep in mind Notre Dame also beat Clemson 35-14, while South Carolina won 31-30 to give these teams a common opponent. The Fighting Irish do have some opt-outs in TE Michael Mayer and DE Isaiah Foskey, who have declared fro the NFL Draft. QB Drew Pyne transferred, but he wasn't very good anyway. Previous starter Tyler Buchner is expected back after missing the last 10 games due to injury, and their 3rd-stringer is very talented if forced into action.
It doesn't matter who is under center because Notre Dame is going to rush for monster numbers on this South Carolina defense. The Fighting Irish average 183 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry, and they'll be up against a Gamecocks defense that allows 195 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry. That will be the key matchup that has Notre Dame winning this game.
South Carolina has way more opt-outs and transfers than Notre Dame. Offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield left for Nebraska. TE's Jaheim Bell (492 scrimmage yards, 5 TD) and Austin Strogner (235 yards, 1 TD) have transferred. QB Spencer Rattler is transferring as well but will play in the bowl, and I don't trust him to play well. WR Josh Vann (296 yards, 3 TD) is out with an injury. Leading rusher MarShawn Lloyd (572 yards, 9 TD) entered the portal. DL Zacch Pickens (42 tackles, 2.5 sacks), top CB Darius Rush (38 tackles, 2 INT) and top OT Dylan Wonnum won't play as they prepare for the NFL Draft. DE Gilbert Edmond (9 TFL) entered the portal, and S Devonni Reed (39 tackles) won't play. They'll be without nine starters as of this writing.
The matchup is great for Notre Dame's offense against South Carolina's poor run defense, and the matchup is also great for Notre Dame's defense against South Carolina's pass-happy offense. The Gamecocks average 258 passing yards per game, but the Fighting Irish only allow 191 passing yards per game and 6.6 per attempt. Notre Dame is outgaining opponents by 56 yards per game on the season while South Carolina is getting outgained by 13 yards per game. The Fighting Irish should be a bigger favorite here. The Gamecocks are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win. Roll with Notre Dame Friday.
|12-29-22||Washington +3.5 v. Texas||Top||27-20||Win||100||47 h 56 m||Show|
20* Washington/Texas Alamo Bowl BAILOUT on Washington +3.5
Kalen DeBoer is quickly becoming one of the best head coaches in the country. He led Washington to a 10-2 season in his first year after coming over from Fresno State. The Huskies head into bowl season on a six-game winning streak and have scored 32 or more points in 10 of their 12 games this season.
DeBoer is an offensive genius, and he has resurrected Michael Penix Jr's career at quarterback. Penix came over from Indiana where he spent time in DeBoer's system. He led a Washington offense that puts up 40.8 points per game, 523.0 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play. Penix completed 66% of his passes for 4,354 yards with a 29-to-7 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for four scores this season.
Penix really thrived against zone defenses, and that's all Texas does is play zone. It helped them be great against the run this season, but they were terrible against the pass, making this a bad matchup for them. Washington throws for 377 passing yards per game and 8.7 yards per attempt, while Texas allows 239 passing yards per game on the season.
The Huskies will have all hands on deck for this one, and Penix announced he will be back for the 2023 season. Conversely, Texas keeps having more opt-outs by the day. Texas' top two RB's in Bijan Robinson (1,580 yards, 18 TD, 6.1 YPC) and Roschon Johnson (554 yards, 5 TD, 6.0 YPC) have opted out to get ready for the NFL Draft. Robinson is arguably the best RB in the country. LB DeMarvion Overshown won't play to prepare for the NFL Draft too. So Texas will be without its top two RB's, a couple LB's, a CB and a DE among nine opt-outs/transfers as of this writing. This bowl game means nothing to them.
Texas QB Quinn Ewers threw for has thrown just one TD pass in his last three games and fewer than 200 yards in four consecutive games. The Longhorns have been relying heavily on running the football down the stretch and now won't have their top two backs. They will continue to try and run, but it won't work against the strength of Washington's defense, which is stopping the run. The Huskies only allow 130 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry on the season. Roll with Washington Thursday.
|12-29-22||Oklahoma v. Florida State -9||32-35||Loss||-110||44 h 30 m||Show|
15* Oklahoma/Florida State Cheez-It Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Florida State -9
Few teams are playing better than Florida State heading into bowl seasons. The Seminoles have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and Mike Norvell finally has this program headed in the right direction. The Seminoles have actually outgained eight of their last nine opponents with the only exception being getting outgained by 12 yards by Wake Forest in Game 4. They have outscored their last five opponents by 28.2 points per game and outgained them by an average of 218 yards per game.
Amazingly, Florida State won't be missing any key players for this bowl game. Two NFL prospects in S Jammie Robinson and DE Jared Verse have stated they will play. The same cannot be said for Oklahoma, which is missing both starting OT's in Anton Harrison and Wanya Harris, DL Jalen Redmond and RB Eric Gray (1,364 yards, 11 TD, 6.4 YPC) who will all be entering the NFL Draft. WR Theo Wease has entered the transfer portal.
Oklahoma has been going the other direction to close out the season. The Sooners went 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their final four games including three upset losses to Baylor, West Virginia and Texas Tech. This has been a poor Oklahoma defense all season allowing 29.6 points per game and 450.7 yards per game. They allow 189 rushing yards per game and 262 passing yards per game and Florida State figures to have a big game on the ground and through the air. The Seminoles average 218 rushing yards per game and 5.5 per carry as well as 258 passing yards per game and 8.7 per attempt.
Florida State also has a great defense, allowing 19.7 points per game, 308 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play. They are tremendous against the pass, allowing just 159 passing yards per game and 5.8 per attempt. The only concern they have on defense is stopping the Dillon Gabriel to Marvin Mims connection. Mims has 52 receptions for 1,006 yards and 6 TD this season. Look for the Seminoles to try and take him away with double-teams and shifting coverages.
The Seminoles will have a home-field advantage with this game being played in Orlando as well. The Sooners are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. The Seminoles are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 bowl games. It's clear which team cares about this game, and which doesn't, thus this one has blowout written all over it. Take Florida State Thursday.
|12-29-22||Minnesota -9.5 v. Syracuse||28-20||Loss||-118||40 h 55 m||Show|
15* Minnesota/Syracuse Pinstripe Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota -9.5
Minnesota head coach PJ Fleck has a perfect ATS record in bowl games and is quickly becoming one of the best bowl coaches in the country. He will have his team ready to go for the Pinstripe Bowl and this will be one of his easiest bowl tests yet as a head coach considering all that Syracuse is missing.
Minnesota went 8-4 this season and it easily could have been better. They should have beaten Iowa in their second-to-last game but suffered a fluky 13-10 loss despite outgaining the Hawkeyes by 119 yards and racking up 399 yards against a very good Iowa defense. They did beat Wisconsin 23-16 in the finale and racked up 416 total yards on a very good Badgers defense while outgaining them by 82 yards. The Golden Gophers are only missing two defenders in LB Braelen Oliver and S Michael Dixon, who entered the transfer portal. They could even get back QB Tanner Morgan and aren't missing anyone on offense.
Syracuse is in a world of hurt heading into this bowl game. The biggest loss is RB Sean Tucker, who has 3,064 scrimmage yards and 27 touchdowns over the past two seasons. He will be taking his talents to the NFL. LeQuint Allen (180 rushing yards) is likely to work as the top back. WR Courtney Jackson (15 receptions) and DL Steve Linton (6 TFL) have entered the portal. Offensive coordinator Robert Anae left to take over the same position at NC State. Defensive coordinator Tony White left for the same position at Nebraska. Top CB Darian Chestnut and top OL Matthew Bergeron will also sit this game.
Syracuse is 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall and heading in the wrong direction. A big problem for them is their run defense, which has allowed 213 or more yards on the ground in four of their last six games. That's bad news for them against a Minnesota team that ranks 11th in the country in rushing at 218 yards per game and 4.8 per carry. The Golden Gophers will get whatever they want against Syracuse on the ground. I also expect this Minnesota defense, which allows just 13.3 points per game and 280.8 yards per game, to shut down anything Syracuse tries to do without Tucker. The Golden Gophers are 5-0 ATS in their last five bowl games. Bet Minnesota Thursday.
|12-28-22||Kansas +3 v. Arkansas||Top||53-55||Win||100||29 h 24 m||Show|
20* Kansas/Arkansas Liberty Bowl No-Brainer on Kansas +3
The Kansas Jayhawks are clearly excited to be playing in their first bowl game since 2008. Lance Leipold did a heck of a job getting the Jayhawks to 6-6 and these players and coaches will relish this opportunity to play in the Liberty Bowl. Leipold is 4-1 ATS in bowl games and the Jayhawks will have almost all hands on deck for this game no opt-outs and no key transfers.
Arkansas lost three of its final four games to close out the season including two upset losses as favorites. They have been hit as hard as almost anyone with opt-outs and transfers leading into this bowl game, so they clearly do not care about it.
Defensive coordinator Barry Odom took the head-coaching job at UNLV. All-American LB Drew Sanders and All-American C Ricky Stromberg are sitting out for the NFL draft. Fellow stud LB Bumper Pool is out with an injury. DB Myles Slusher, TE Trey Knox (26 receptions, 296 yards, 5 TD) and WR Ketron Jackson (16, 277, 3 TD) all entered the portal. Leading WR Jadon Haselwood (59, 702, 3 TD) entered the NFL Draft and won't play. DL Isaiah Nickolls (12 starts) entered the portal. In all, the Razorbacks will be without nine starters and have roughly 23 players who are opting out or transferring.
Kansas should be able to name its score with an offense that put up 34.2 points per per game and 7.0 yards per play this season. They'll be up against an Arkansas defense that was already poor in allowing 454 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play and will now be without all of their best players on defense. Kansas' defense is bad, but I still trust them to get more stops than Arkansas in this one.
Plays against any team (Arkansas) - averaging 6.2 YPP or more on offense against a team that allows 5.6 to 6.2 YPP on defense, after allowing 6.75 YPP or more in two consecutive games are 40-11 (78.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Kansas in the Liberty Bowl Wednesday.
|12-28-22||Central Florida v. Duke -3||Top||13-30||Win||100||155 h 22 m||Show|
20* UCF/Duke Military Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Duke -3
The Duke Blue Devils are excited to be here after a surprising 8-4 season in Mike Elko's first season on the job to get to a bowl for the first time since 2018. They didn't settle once they became bowl eligible. They continued playing well down the stretch winning four of their final five games with their lone loss coming by 2 at Pittsburgh as 6-point dogs. They have all hands on deck for this game with no opt-outs or key transfers.
The same cannot be said for UCF, which has a ton of opt-outs and transfers. The game the Knights cared about was the AAC Championship Game against Tulane, which they lost 45-28. They won't care at all about this game, and that is evident with all the key players they are missing.
UCF could be down to a third-string QB in Thomas Castellanos is John Rhys Plumlee cannot go because backup Mikey Keene transferred. The Knights will be without their top receiver in Ryan O'Keefe (73 receptions, 725 yards, 5 TD), their top LB in Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste, their top CB in Davonte Brown and several other contributors. Defensive coordinator Travis Williams left for Arkansas.
Duke likes to run the football averaging 185 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry. They will have success on the ground against a UCF defense that allows 157 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry and will be missing their top DL and top LB. Duke only allows 120 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry and will be well equipped to stop a UCF offense that also relies heavily on the run at 236 rushing yards per game and 5.3 per carry.
Duke is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in two consecutive games. The Knights are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games vs. teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game. The Blue Devils are 36-14-1 ATS in their last 51 non-conference games. Duke is 5-0 ATS in its last five bowl games. The Blue Devils are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. AAC opponents.
Plays against any team (UCF) - averaging 6.2 YPP or more on offense against a team that allows 5.6 to 6.2 YPP on defense, after allowing 6.75 YPP or more in two consecutive games are 40-11 (78.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet Duke in the Military Bowl Wednesday.
|12-27-22||East Carolina v. Coastal Carolina OVER 62||Top||53-29||Win||100||145 h 34 m||Show|
20* ECU/Coastal Carolina Birmingham Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 62
Star QB Grayson McCall will play in this bowl game for Coastal Carolina before transferring to likely Auburn, where he'll follow Hugh Freeze. It just hasn't been announced yet where he's going. But first, McCall clearly wants to finish what he started here at Coastal Carolina.
McCalle completing 69.1% of his passes for 2,633 yards with a 24-to-2 TD/INT ratio this season and makes all the difference for their offense. He has also rushed for 183 yards and five scores. He missed a couple games at the end of the season with an injured ankle before returning for the Sun Belt Championship Game. And now he's had 23 days in between games to rest and recover even more and should be 100% for this one.
In the two games without McCall, the Chanticleers averaged just 16.5 points and 276.5 yards per game, which shows how much he means to this offense when you consider they average 29.1 points per game and 413 yards per game on the season with those two games really bringing down the averages. Coastal Carolina can't stop anyone, allowing 30.1 points per game, 412 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play. They allowed 46 points per game in their final two games against James Madison and Troy.
East Carolina also has an explosive, balanced offense behind senior QB Holton Ahlers. They average 30.8 points per game, 459 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play with 170 rushing and 288 passing. Ahlers is completing 67.1% of his passes for 3,408 yards with a 23-to-5 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 134 yards and five scores. RB Mitchell has 1,325 rushing yards and 13 scores and should have a monster game against this Coastal Carolina defense.
East Carolina gave up 42 points and 515 yards to Houston and 46 points and 575 yards to Temple in their final two games this season. McCall will have a big game against this defense that is going in the wrong direction. Coastal Carolina also has some opt outs on its already porous defense. DE Josaiah Stewart (10 TFL) and CB's Manny Stokes and Zxaequan Reeves have transferred.
Both teams are decent against the run and terrible against the pass. ECU gives up 300 passing yards per game and 8.7 per attempt, while Coastal allows 282 passing yards per game and 9.3 per attempt. Both teams will throw the ball more than usual to take advantage of the opposing defenses' weaknesses, which also favors the OVER. The weather looks good for a shootout too with temps nearing 40's, no wind and no precipitation Tuesday in Birmingham. This total is too low. Bet the OVER in the Birmingham Bowl Tuesday.
|12-27-22||Georgia Southern -3.5 v. Buffalo||Top||21-23||Loss||-110||138 h 45 m||Show|
20* GA Southern/Buffalo Camellia Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Georgia Southern -3.5
Both Georgia Southern and Buffalo are 6-6 this season but they are not created equal. Georgia Southern is the much better of these two teams. It's less than a five hour drive for fans from Statesboro, GA to Montgomery, AL, and fans and players alike will be excited for their first bowl games under first-year head coach Clay Helton. They gutted out a 51-48 win over a very good Appalachian State team as a home underdog in the regular season finale to earn their bowl berth.
Helton turning this triple-option team into a pass-happy team and getting to six wins was one of the best coaching jobs in the country. Georgia Southern put up 33.7 points per game and 469 yards per game including 327 passing per game. Former Buffalo QB Kyle Vantrease had a great season with his new team and is loaded with weapons on the outside with three receivers that finished with at least 700 receiving yards, plus a pair of talented RB's that both averaged 5.5 YPC or more. Vantrease will be motivated to beat his former team.
Buffalo is one of the most fraudulent bowl teams there is. The Bulls went 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their final four games and needed a fortunate one-point win over lowly Akron and their third-string QB in the final just to get into a bowl. Buffalo is actually getting outgained 4.9 yards per play on offense to 6.1 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.2 yards per play on the season. Georgia Southern averages 6.2 yards per play on offense and has the way superior unit. Buffalo does have the edge on defense but not by much, and they give up 5.1 yards per carry and 7.1 yards per pass.
I haven't even mentioned Buffalo's injuries and opt outs. Running backs Ron Cook Jr. and Al-Jay Henderson, who combined for 901 rushing yards this year, did not play in the regular season finale against Akron. Receiver Jamari Gassett (28 catches) and TE Trevor Borland entered the portal, as did S Keshawn Cobb (66 tackles, 1 INT). Georgia Southern is expected to hand all hands on deck for this one, showing how much this game means to these players.
The forecast looks good for the pass-happy Eagles with temps in the 40's, no precipitation and no wind Tuesday. The Bulls are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss. Buffalo is 2-7 ATS in its last nine neutral site games. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GA Southern) - off a home win against a conference opponent, with four-plus more starters returning than their opponent at 42-15 (73.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with Georgia Southern Tuesday.
|12-26-22||Chargers -3 v. Colts||Top||20-3||Win||100||178 h 41 m||Show|
25* MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Chargers -3
The Los Angeles Chargers are coming up clutch when these games matter the most here down the stretch. They have won two consecutive games against fellow playoff contenders in Miami and Tennessee and were more dominant than the final scores showed in both of those games. They outgained the Dolphins by 213 yards in a 23-17 victory and outgained the Titans by 81 yards in a 17-14 victory.
The headlines are that Justin Herbert finally has his to star receivers healthy in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, which is huge and true, but the real substance of this team is what the defense has done the last two weeks. They held Miami's high-octane attack to just 17 points and 219 total yards, and they held Derrick Henry and Tennessee's rushing attack in check while limiting them to 14 points and 284 total yards. Now they finally have a defense to go with one of the most talented offenses in the league.
While the Chargers have a lot to play for tied for 6th in the AFC with the Dolphins and only one game ahead of the Patriots, the Indianapolis Colts have nothing to play for at this point. They just lost RB Jonathan Taylor to a season-ending injury and he means everything to their offense. They have decided to go with Nick Foles over Matt Ryan for this game, and it won't make any difference as the offensive line is terrible, and there are no proven weapons on this offense now without Taylor.
The Colts have to be gutted after blowing the largest lead in NFL history, losing 36-39 (OT) to the Vikings last week after opening with a 33-0 lead on the heels of two defensive touchdowns. Taylor went out after getting a big lead and the offense couldn't sustain drives without him. The defense has to be gassed after spending basically the entire second half on the field. They gave up 518 total yards to the Vikings in defeat. I don't trust their mental state right now as Jeff Saturday is a dead man walking, and these players know it.
I grabbed a good early number on the Chargers -3 Monday knowing this line would move in their favor, once again beating another line move. I obviously don't like it as much at anything more than -3. I would downgrade it to a 20* at -3.5 to -4.5, so adjust your best accordingly. This is why it's important to get a long-term subscription instead of buying plays on the day of games so you can get the best numbers, too.
Plays against any team (Indianapolis) - after going over the total by 35 points or more total in their last three games, a bad team winning 25-40% of their games on the season are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Chargers are 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Indianapolis. Bet the Chargers Monday.
|12-25-22||Packers v. Dolphins OVER 46.5||Top||26-20||Loss||-110||146 h 54 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Packers/Dolphins OVER 46.5
I locked in this great number on Monday before the Packers played as it was available at pretty much every book. It reopened higher, so we got a great number here. I would downgrade it to a 15* play at anything above 49 at this point, but I'm glad myself and my long-term clients got this great number early. It's just another reason you should sign up long-term to get the best numbers, too, rather than bet on the day of the game. I consistently beat the line moves, which puts us at a big advantage on the books.
But let's get into the breakdown of this game. With some terrible weather forecast across the country, this won't be one of them. Temperatures will be in the 50's in Miami Sunday with light winds and a small chance of precipitation. It will be balmy compared to the rest of the country and it will help us cash in this OVER ticket.
Maimi is a dead nuts OVER team right now. They have scored 29 or more points in five of their last seven games overall. But they have allowed an average of 29.3 points per game and 409.7 yards per game in their last three games. They are decimated by injuries on defense, especially in the secondary. If they don't get pressure teams consistently find big plays against them right now.
The Packers are in the best shape on offense they have been all season. Aaron Rodgers has his top five receivers and his top two running backs all healthy right now. He is no longer wearing a wrap on his thumb and that's a non-issue at this point. They basically just scored 31 points on the Rams as they kneeled it at the 1-yard line to finish the game after scoring 28 points against the Bears and 33 points against the Eagles in their previous two games.
We've seen this Green Bay defense shredded against the best offenses this season, and Miami classifies as one of the best offenses. The Packers allowed 27 points to the Bills, 28 to the Cowboys, 27 to the Titans and 40 to the Eagles in recent weeks. Miami should be able to do whatever it wants against this Green Bay defense both on the ground and through the air.
The OVER is 10-1 in Packers last 11 games in the second half of the season vs. a team with a winning record. Miami is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games in the second half of the season vs. good offensive teams averaging at least 5.65 yards per play. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-24-22||Raiders v. Steelers -2||10-13||Win||100||67 h 22 m||Show|
15* Raiders/Steelers AFC Saturday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh -2
The Pittsburgh Steelers were already plan on honoring Franco Harris on the 50th anniversary of the "Immaculate Reception" this weekend. This game will mean even more to players, coaches and fans alike now that Harris passed away earlier this week. This is going to be a surreal atmosphere for a Pittsburgh game and an even bigger home-field advantage than normal.
We're backing a Steelers team playing some very good football coming into this one. They have won three of their last four games overall while outgaining all four opponents with their lone loss coming when they committed three turnovers in the red zone in a 2-point loss to the Ravens. They outgained the Panthers by 116 yards last week in a 24-16 road victory.
Forecasts are calling for single-digit temperatures and 15 MPH winds in Pittsburgh Sunday. I'll gladly back the blue collar team used to these conditions over the dome team in the Las Vegas Raiders who are used to warm weather. Derek Carr is 0-5 with 5 interceptions and has never thrown for more than 220 yards in games with a temperature of less than 37 degrees in his career. I'll also back the best unit on the field, which is this Pittsburgh defense that is allowing only 16.3 points per game and 278.5 yards per game over its last four games. This great run defensively has coincided with the return of TJ Watt, who means everything to this team.
The Raiders are getting too much respect for a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS run against a very easy schedule of the Broncos, Seahawks, Chargers, Rams and Patriots. They got a miracle last week against the Patriots to avoid blowing yet another double-digit lead with one of the dumbest plays you will ever see on the final play of the game. Their luck runs out this week against a motivated Steelers team that simply will want it more.
The Raiders are just 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS on the road this season. Las Vegas is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 road games vs. AFC North opponents. The Raiders are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Las Vegas is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing record. I trust Pittsburgh a lot more in this spot laying a short number at home. Take the Steelers Saturday.
|12-24-22||Middle Tennessee State v. San Diego State OVER 48||Top||25-23||Push||0||74 h 46 m||Show|
20* MTSU/SDSU Hawaii Bowl BAILOUT on OVER 48
San Diego State has had its best offense in years in the second half of the season. They fired their offensive coordinator after six games and replaced QB Burmeister with QB Mayden, who has made all the difference for their offense.
Mayden is completing 62.9% of his passes for 1,721 yards with a 10-to-7 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 205 yards and three scores in basically just half a season. It's his dual-threat ability that makes the difference, plus he's a much better passer. They put up 28 points on Fresno, 43 on San Jose and 34 on New Mexico in three of their last five games.
Middle Tennessee has no problem getting in a shootout. They boast an offense that puts up 29.2 points per game including 267 passing yards per game, and a defense that allows 28.1 points per game including 291 passing yards per game. You can pass on this San Diego State defense as they give up 207 passing yards per game and haven't faced many passing attacks as good as Middle Tennessee. They gave up 394 passing yards to Jake Haener and Fresno State for comparison.
The weather looks good for a shootout in Hawaii with temps in the 70's, light winds and no precipitation. 10 of Middle Tennessee's 12 games this season have seen 51 or more combined points. The OVER is 14-3 in MTSU's last 17 games after gaining 450 or more yards in two consecutive games. The OVER is 7-0 in Blue Raiders last seven games following a win. The OVER is 5-0 in Blue Raiders last five bowl games. Take the OVER in this game Saturday.
|12-24-22||Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 46||Top||34-40||Win||100||113 h 47 m||Show|
20* Eagles/Cowboys NFC East No-Brainer on OVER 46
I cashed in the Cowboys/Jaguars OVER last week in a game that saw 74 combined points, and I'm back on the OVER in a Cowboys game this week. They are a dead nuts OVER team right now. The Cowboys have scored at least 27 points in seven consecutive games now while also gaining at least 385 yards in all seven games. Their defense has slipped down the stretch, allowing at least 19 points in six of their last seven games overall.
This total has been bet down from 50.5 to 46 now with the news that the Eagles will be without Jalen Hurts. But Gardner Minshew is arguably the best backup quarterback in the NFL and the Eagles will still hang a big number with him under center. The game plan will change to be more pass-happy, but that also benefits the OVER.
The Eagles are averaging 37 points per game in their last four games overall and have ample weapons to make Minshew's job much easier both in the passing game and the running game. Dallas Goedert could make his return at tight end this week, too. Minshew will be up against a banged up Dallas secondary that will be missing several key players, plus LB Vander Esch is out with a shoulder injury suffered last week against the Jaguars.
The Eagles also have key injuries on the defensive line and in the secondary, most notably DE Robert Quinn who they traded for out with a knee injury. So all the key playmakers for both teams are healthy right now with the exception of Hurts. And most of the notable injuries are all on defense for both teams.
I don't love playing overs in division games, but this one is different. Cooper Rush was the quarterback of the Cowboys in that first meeting, while Hurts was the quarterback for the Eagles. These are two completely different offenses with Dak Prescott and Minshew running the show, and that element of surprise on a short week will favor the offenses over the defenses. Plus, in a weekend filled with terrible weather everywhere, this game will be played in a dome in perfect scoring conditions.
I also don't think there will be as much intensity for this division rivalry as there would have been if it meant more. The Eagles basically have the NFC East locked up only needing one more win in their final three games, while the Cowboys are basically locked into the 4th seed in the NFC. Dallas beat Philadelphia 51-26 at home last season for 77 combined points. Three of the last four meetings have seen 54 or more combined points with the lone exception being that Cooper Rush game.
The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings. The OVER is 6-1 in Cowboys last seven games overall. The OVER is 6-2 in Eagles last eight games overall. Dallas is 7-0 OVER in its last seven home games after allowing 6 or more yards per play in its previous game. They just gave up 503 yards and 7.3 yards per play against the Jaguars last week. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|12-24-22||Commanders +7 v. 49ers||20-37||Loss||-110||63 h 12 m||Show|
15* NFL Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Commanders +7
I have personally cashed in the 49ers three times during their current 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS run. I won with them over Tampa Bay two weeks ago and last week over Seattle. I have had a good beat on this team. But now it's time to 'sell high' on the 49ers as I think this is a terrible spot for them, and you're starting to pay a tax to back them this week.
The 49ers just clinched the NFC West with their 21-13 win at Seattle last week. Now they are in a letdown spot as there's not much for them to play for the rest of the way other than playoff seeding. I could see them losing this game outright as a result, let alone covering this 7-point spread. Look for Kyle Shanahan to manage injured players the rest of the way and to not force them into action, meaning a lot of backups will be on the field for them.
While the 49ers don't need this game, the Washington Commanders need this game like blood after losing to the New York Giants last week. They are now just 0.5 games ahead of both teh Seahawks and Lions for the 7th and final playoff spot in the NFC. I know I'm going to get a max motivated Commanders team this week, and that should be enough to cover this spread.
The Commanders are also one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now and a lot more healthy than the 49ers. They should get CB St.-Juste back this week as well as DE Chase Young, who they've been waiting to get back all season. The Commanders will still be fresh after having a bye week prior to that Giants game as well, which negates the 49ers' rest advantage after playing last Thursday.
Oddsmakers are expecting a defensive battle here with a 37.5-point total, so points are at a premium and worth more. Getting 7 points with the Commanders is too much this week, and we are only getting them because the refs beat them and they beat themselves last week against the Giants. It's time to 'buy low' on the Commanders now.
It's a Washington team that is 6-2-1 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games overall. The Commanders have outgained six of their last eight opponents while only getting outgained by 18 and 38 yards in the other two contests. In fact, the Commanders haven't lost by more than one score in any of their last 10 games, so they just have a knack of playing in close games. That makes for a 10-0 system backing them pertaining to this 7-point spread. Roll with the Commanders Saturday.
|12-24-22||Saints v. Browns -3||Top||17-10||Loss||-117||122 h 17 m||Show|
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Browns -3
Deshaun Watson led the Cleveland Browns to a 13-3 home victory over the Baltimore Ravens last week. It was a big weight lifted off his shoulders, and certainly a much friendlier atmosphere playing at home. Well, he and the Browns will be back home this week where they have been at their best all season, going 4-3 SU & 4-3 ATS while outscoring opponents by 3.0 points per game.
Cleveland should be more than a 3-point home favorite over New Orleans, which has been terrible on the road this season. The Saints are just 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS on the road this season and losing by 6.0 points per game on average. This won't be just another road game for them, either.
Forecasts are calling for temperatures around 12 degrees and 30 MPH winds with a 50% chance of precipitation. I'll gladly back the Browns, who are used to these conditions, over the dome team in the Saints that aren't build for these conditions.
Due to the forecast, this game will be played on the ground, and I trust Cleveland's ground game over that of New Orleans. Nick Chubb is a go this week and leads a Cleveland rushing attack that ranks 5th in the NFL at 149.0 rushing yards per game and 11th at 4.7 yards per carry. Compare that to New Orleans, which ranks just 21st in rushing offense at 111.3 yards per game and 18th at 4.3 yards per carry. Both teams are pretty much dead even against the run, too.
The injury news is good for the Browns with DE Garrett, CB Ward, TE Njoku, WR Cooper and RB Chubb all listed as probable. The injury news for the Saints is not so good with WR Olave and WR Landry both out for this one. Andy Dalton will be without his two favorite targets. It will be a factor when the Browns take an early lead and the Saints have to try and throw to get back in the game.
The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win. The Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last five Saturday games. New Orleans is 0-6 ATS after playing a home game this season. New Orleans is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. good rushing teams that average 4.5 or more yards per carry in the second half of the season. These four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing Cleveland. Take the Browns Saturday.
|12-24-22||Seahawks +10 v. Chiefs||Top||10-24||Loss||-110||122 h 16 m||Show|
25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Seahawks +10
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Seattle Seahawks this week. They have gone 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall despite being favored in three of those games and not being more than a 3-point underdog once. They go from being overvalued to undervalued now as 10-point dogs. They haven't been double-digit dogs all season until now.
The spot is a good one with the Seahawks coming in on extra rest after playing last Thursday, while the Chiefs are coming off an overtime game against the Houston Texans and off three consecutive road games overall. I'm sure the Chiefs have a lot to deal with back at home with it being Christmas after being on the road the last three weeks, so they won't be fully focused for this one.
That's nothing new for the Chiefs, who are having a terrible time putting teams away. They lost by 3 at Cincinnati, only beat the Broncos by 6 and only beat the Texans by 6 in OT after being 14-point favorites. The Seahawks will never be out of this game because the Chiefs cannot stop anyone, allowing 24 or more points in four of their last five games overall.
After playing four tough defenses in their last five games in the Bucs, Rams, Panthers and 49ers, the Seahawks should get right offensively here. They have still scored 24 or more points in six of their last eight games overall. Kenneth Walker should have a big game on the ground as he has extra time to heal his ankle after returning last week. Geno Smith will dice up this Kansas City secondary.
No question the Chiefs are going to get their points, but they aren't looking to run up the score. They just want to get in and get out with a win, which is what they have been doing for the majority of the season. The Chiefs have only three wins all season by more than 10 points.
Kansas City is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall. The Chiefs are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. Kansas City is 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 games following a SU win. Pete Carroll is 19-4 ATS following two or more consecutive losses as the coach of Seattle. Andy Reid is 0-8 ATS in home games following three consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse as a head coach having never covered in this situation. Bet the Seahawks Saturday.
|12-23-22||Wake Forest -125 v. Missouri||Top||27-17||Win||100||48 h 16 m||Show|
25* Pre-New Year's Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Wake Forest ML -125
Let's start by naming the players that Missouri will be missing for this game. They will be without their leading receiver and top playmaker in Dominic Lovett, who has 56 receptions for 846 yards and three touchdowns while averaging 15.1 yards per receptions. Their next-leading receiver has 36 receptions for 403 yards, so he will be missed for a Missouri offense that already isn't very good.
The Tigers will also be without arguably their three best defenders who are all opting out to prepare for the NFL Draft. DE McGuire (39 tackles, 7.5 sacks), DD Coleman (39 tackles, 6 sacks) and S Manueal (47 tackles, 4 sacks) are all out. They are going to struggle to get pressure on Sam Hartman and this explosive Wake Forest offense, especially without those two defensive ends.
Speaking of Hartman, he has opted to play in this game, and they only lose a backup RB and a starting cornerback to the transfer portal with zero opt-outs. Hartman has a 35-to-10 TD/INT ratio on the season and wants to finish what he started here at Wake Forest, and his team will have his back Friday night. He leads a Wake Forest offense averaging 36.8 points per game on the season.
Compare that to Missouri, which averages just 25.5 points per game, and it's easy to see which team has the better offense. And now QB Brady Cook (12 TD/7 INT) won't have his favorite receiver in Lovett. This Missouri defense is good allowing 25.0 points per game, but not having their top three defenders will make things a lot more difficult. Wake Forest has an average defense at 29.3 points per game allowed, but their job is much easier this week preparing for this hapless Missouri offense.
We are getting great value on Wake Forest after going 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in its final five games, which is the only reason this line is close to a PK. But the Demon Deacons are 7-5 this season and better than that record as four of the five losses came by single-digits including three by 6 points or fewer. The only exception was when they committed eight turnovers against Louisville to give the game away.
Wake Forest is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games after allowing 31 points or more in three consecutive games. Plays on any team (Wake Forest) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points in their last five games, in December games are 55-22 (71.4%) ATS since 1992. The Tigers are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 December games.
Dave Clawson is a perfect 6-0 ATS off a loss by 3 points or less as the coach of Wake Forest. Clawson is 8-1 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of the Demon Deacons. Clawson stated he was excited to be playing an SEC team in their bowl and will be playing that motivational angle. I trust Clawson and Hartman to get the troops ready and put an exclamation point on their season this week against an overmatched Missouri team that is missing too many key players. Bet Wake Forest on the Money Line Friday.
|12-22-22||Jaguars +2 v. Jets||19-3||Win||100||19 h 21 m||Show|
15* Jaguars/Jets AFC ANNIHILATOR on Jacksonville +2
We have two teams headed in opposite directions and two quarterbacks headed in opposite direction in this matchup Thursday night. I'll side with the team playing with confidence and with the better quarterback over the team that is slumping and doesn't believe in its quarterback.
Don't look now but the Jaguars have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with upset wins over the Ravens, Titans and Cowboys to pull within one game of first place of the Titans in the AFC South. They host the Titans in Week 18, so they are very much alive to win this division now and believing they can.
A lot of that belief comes from the performance of the offense and Lawrence. He has a 14-to-1 TD/INT ratio in his last six games and is completing 66% of his passes for 3,520 yards with 24 touchdowns and only seven interceptions on the season. He is also a dual-threat with 239 rushing yards and 4.9 per carry with four scores. The Jaguars are loaded with weapons at receiver for him on the outside, and they have a steady rushing attack with Travis Etienne, who has rushed for 917 yards and 5.0 per carry on the season.
Zach Wilson is completing just 54.9% of his passes for 1,596 yards with six touchdowns and six interceptions while rushing for 101 yards and 3.7 per carry with one score. He is only playing right now because Mike White is hurt, and it's a big downgrade for them at quarterback. They had built up some momentum with White but that's gone now.
The Jets do have the better defense, but I don't think that's enough to make up for the advantage the Jaguars have on offense. The weather will be bad for this game with a 100% chance of precipitation and 20 MPH winds. So the team that runs the ball better and takes care of the football better is likely going to win, and I trust Lawrence over Wilson as far as turnovers go.
The Jets haven't been able to run the ball very well since they lost Breece Hall at running back. In their last five games, the Jets were held to 59 yards on 23 carries by the Patriots, 76 yards on 22 carries by the Bills and 50 yards on 22 carries by the Lions. They only had success against the terrible Bears and Vikings defenses. The Jaguars just rushed for 192 yards on the Cowboys last week. They rank 6th in the NFL at 4.9 yards per carry while the Jets rank 21st at 4.3 yards per carry. The Jets are only slightly better against the run defensively allowing 4.1 per carry compared to 4.2 per carry for Jacksonville.
The Jets have lost three straight and four of their last five games overall with their lone win coming against the Bears who were without Justin Fields. Wrong team favored here. Take the Jaguars Thursday.
|12-22-22||Air Force +6.5 v. Baylor||Top||30-15||Win||100||210 h 34 m||Show|
20* Air Force/Baylor Armed Forces Bowl No-Brainer on Air Force +6.5
Air Force went 9-3 this season with all three losses by 7 points or fewer. That's how close they were to a perfect 12-0 season. They were probably the best team in the Mountain West, but it didn't play out that way as they came up just short of making the title game. But the Falcons finished strong winning their final four games and will be very much looking forward to facing a Power 5 team in Baylor in the Armed Forces Bowl.
I don't think Baylor wants to be here at all. Remember, the Bears won the Big 12 last season and beat Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl to finish 12-2. Now they are just 6-6 this season and coming off three consecutive losses to finish the regular season to Kansas State, TCU and Texas. They aren't going to enjoy preparing for the triple-option in practice, and I don't think they are going to be motivated at all to beat Air Force as this is a big step down in quality of bowl compared to a year ago.
Baylor defensive coordinator Ron Roberts was fired at the end of the regular season and safety Devin Neal (41 tackles) opted to transfer. This is a Baylor defense that slipped big time this season allowing 26.6 points per game and 370.3 yards per game. And I give the edge to Air Force on defense, allowing just 13.3 points per game and 255.8 yards per game on the season.
This Air Force offense is actually pretty explosive for a triple-option offense. They average 6.1 yards per play and 5.6 yards per carry on the season behind 336 rushing yards per game. This Baylor defense allowed 29 or more points in four consecutive games to finish the season and will struggle to defend the triple-option. They allowed 184 or more rushing yards in three of their last four games as well.
Plays on neutral field underdogs (Air Force) - an excellent ball control team that averages 32 or more possession minutes per game are 75-35 (68.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Falcons are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 non-conference games. Air Force is 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games.
Finally, the forecast is calling for nearly 30 MPH winds and 20 degrees, so that clearly favors the Falcons and their triple-option and really takes away Baylor's passing attack. Service Academy's are 70% ATS since 1990 in bowls and always show up, while Baylor has questionable motivation. Take Air Force Thursday.
|12-21-22||South Alabama v. Western Kentucky OVER 56||Top||23-44||Win||100||187 h 5 m||Show|
20* South Alabama/WKU New Orleans Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 56
Western Kentucky starting QB Austin Reed (4,247 yards, 36 TD's) originally entered the transfer portal and this total dropped big time from the 61.5-point opener. But Reed has decided to stay with the program and will play in this bow game, and the books have failed to adjust it back up to where it should be. We'll take advantage and back the OVER 56 here.
Reed leads a Western Kentucky offense that is averaging 35.8 points, 484 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play. The Hilltoppers will be up against one of the best offenses in the Sun Belt in the South Alabama Jaguars. They average 31.9 points per game, 426 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play. They have scored at least 27 points in 10 of their 12 games this season. WKU has scored at least 27 points in 10 of its 13 games. Good chance both teams get to at least 28 in this one, which is all we need to cash this OVER.
Conditions will obviously be perfect for a shootout in this New Orleans Bowl with it being played inside the Caesars Superdome. The OVER is 11-3 in WKU's last 14 games as underdogs. The OVER is 6-0 in WKU's lat six games after winning four or five of its last six games. The OVER is 24-9 in WKU's last 33 games after gaining 375 or more passing yards last game. The OVER is 5-1 in Jaguars last six non-conference games. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|12-20-22||Toledo -4.5 v. Liberty||21-19||Loss||-110||162 h 35 m||Show|
15* Toledo/Liberty Boca Raton Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Toledo -4.5
The Liberty Flames were in line for a New Year's 6 bowl after an 8-1 start and coming off an upset win at Arkansas. They have since gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS losing three times outright as double-digit favorites. So they had a great shot at going 11-1, and simply fell apart. I don't think they care at all about being in this bowl game for a number of reasons.
The streak started with a 33-36 loss at UConn a 13-point favorites. It continues with a 22-23 loss to Virginia Tech as 10.5-point home favorites. And the bottom completely fell out in a 14-49 home loss to New Mexico State as 24-point favorites in the regular season finale.
They must have learned that Hugh Freeze was leaving for Auburn prior to that shocking loss to New Mexico State, failing to cover by a whopping 59 points. This is now a program in limbo and a lot of these players are likely to transfer out now that they won't be playing for Freeze. LB Ahmad Walker (64 tackles), DL Dre Butler and WR Jaivian Lofton have all entered the portal thus far.
Toledo has elite numbers this season. This despite a couple throw away games to end the regular season after they had clinched their spot in the MAC Championship Game. They lost outright to Bowling Green and Western Michigan in games they didn't care about. But then they played up to their potential in the title game, beating Ohio 17-7 while outgaining the Bobcats by 128 yards.
QB Dequan Finn missed a couple games down the stretch and they struggled without him. But he returned for the MAC Championship Game and looked healthy. Finn is completing 59.2% of his passes for 2,132 yards with 22 touchdowns and 12 interceptions on the season, while also rushing for 609 yards and eight scores on 5.4 per carry. It's a balanced Toledo offense averaging 178 rushing yards per game and 228 passing yards per game. And it's a very good Toledo defense holding opponents to 25.5 points per game, 332 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play.
I know Toledo wants to be here, and there's a good chance Liberty doesn't even show up. Even if they do, I still think the Rockets cover this 4.5-point spread with the potential of an absolute blowout if the Flames fold like they did in their final three games of the regular season. Toledo is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after losing two of its last three games. The Flames are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. The Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. Independent teams. Roll with Toledo Tuesday.
|12-19-22||Rams v. Packers -7||Top||12-24||Win||100||50 h 32 m||Show|
20* Rams/Packers ESPN No-Brainer on Green Bay -7
The Green Bay Packers kept their slim playoff hopes alive with a 28-19 win over the Bears. They have since had a bye week and are as healthy as they have been all season. Aaron Rodgers was practicing without a wrap on his thumb for the first time since he injured it this week. I love the spot for the Packers on Monday Night Football.
Rodgers has his full compliment of weapons now with Lazard, Watson, Tonyan, Cobb, Jones and Doubs all healthy. Watson has really emerged as a playmaker with eight touchdowns in his last four games. They scored 33 points on the Eagles the week prior to scoring 28 against the Bears.
The Packers should have their way on offense against a Rams defense that is expected to be withotu Aaron Donald again. The Rams have allowed 26 or more points in four of their last five games overall. But the bigger concern is on the other side of the football for Los Angeles.
The Rams are without their three best players on offense in Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Allan Robinson. They were struggling even with these guys, and it has obviously been even worse without them. The Rams rank 29th in scoring offense at 16.8 points per game, 31st in total offense at 283.0 yards per game and 32nd at 4.7 yards per play. They have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL which is perhaps the biggest issue for them.
No, Baker Mayfield is not the answer. He pulled off a miracle erasing a 16-3 deficit in the final four minutes to beat the Raiders 17-16 last week. But that works in our favor here because this line is now lower than it should be after the Rams pulled off the upset. Let's just look at it from a line value perspective.
The Rams were 6.5-point home dogs to the Raiders, and now are only 7-point road dogs to the Packers. I think the Packers and Raiders are pretty much equal teams, so when adjusting for home-field advantage this line should be closer to Packers -10. Then throw in the fact that it's a warm weather team in the Rams going outdoors to play in freezing temps at Lambeau Field with the forecast calling for low 20's, and the Packers should definitely be more than 7-point favorites. They have one of the biggest home-field advantages in the NFL late in the season.
The Packers simply own the Rams, going 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings with the Packers winning by 8 points or more in all seven victories. They won by 8, 14, 14 and 21 points in their last four home meetings with the Rams. Green Bay is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. NFC opponents. Bet the Packers Monday.
|12-18-22||Giants v. Commanders -4.5||Top||20-12||Loss||-110||141 h 35 m||Show|
20* Giants/Commanders NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Washington -4.5
I think the Washington Commanders are in the best spot of any team all season this week. They played the Giants two weeks ago, had a bye last week, and now get to face the Giants again. They are rested and ready to go, plus they have been game planning for the Giants for three weeks now. This one has blowout written all over it given the favorable spot for them.
These teams are both 7-5-1 but one is legit and one is a fraud, and both are going in opposite directions. The Commanders are 6-1-1 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. The Giants are 0-3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS in their last four games overall. They are coming off a 22-48 home loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Giants are as banged up as any team in the NFL right now. They are missing playmakers at receiver, Saquon Barkley isn't right, and they have cluster injuries on defense. That defense has been gashed for 31.8 points per game and 400.8 yards per game in their last four games. The rush defense has really been gashed for an average of 186.8 rushing yards per game allowed in the last four.
Washington has rushed for at least 128 yards in seven of its last eight games overall and will find plenty of success against the Giants on the ground to take pressure off of Taylor Heineke. They rushed for 165 yards and managed 411 total yards in that first meeting with the Giants two weeks ago. They outgained the Giants by 95 yards in that game and deserved better than a tie.
The favorable spot for Washington should have them more than 4.5-point favorites here. They were 2.5-point road favorites in that first meeting, and are now 4.5-point home favorites in the rematch. That's only a 2-point adjustment for flipping home fields. It's worth more than 2, and it's certainly worth more than 2 given the favorable spot for the Commanders off the bye and with the Giants gassed and having cluster injuries everywhere.
The Giants are 1-8 ATS in their last nine December games. Washington is 23-6 ATS in its last 29 games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 6 or more yards per play in the second half of the season. Ron Rivera is 16-5 ATS in home games after winning four or five of his last six games as a head coach. This one has blowout written all over it. Bet the Commanders Sunday night.
|12-18-22||Titans v. Chargers -2.5||14-17||Win||100||137 h 39 m||Show|
15* Titans/Chargers AFC ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -2.5
This Los Angeles Chargers offense is so much more potent when both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are on the field at the same time. Williams returned last week to join Allen as the Chargers beat the Dolphins 23-17 in what was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed.
The Chargers racked up 432 total yards and held the Dolphins to 219 total yards, outgaining them by 213 yards. Justin Herbert went 39-of-51 passing for 367 yards in the win. Williams had 6 receptions for 116 yards and a touchdown while Allen had 12 receptions for 92 yards. Austin Ekeler also had 104 scrimmage yards and a score. This is one of the best offenses in the NFL with Herbert and this trio of weapons.
Now the Chargers go up against a Tennessee Titans defense that is one of the most banged up in the NFL right now. They just allowed 36 points and 428 total yards to the Jaguars last week after giving up 35 points and 453 total yards to the Eagles the previous week. I just don't know how the Titans are going to get any stops in this game.
On the other side of the football, the Titans are also one of the worst units in the league. They rank 26th in scoring offense at 18.5 points per game, 29th in total offense at 296.9 yards per game and 22nd at 5.2 yards per play. The Titans are the most fraudulent team with a winning record in the NFL if it's not the Giants. They are getting outgained by 68.1 yards per game on the season. But that winning 7-6 record has them overvalued in recent weeks, including this week as only 2.5-point road dogs to the Chargers.
Los Angeles has a chance of getting several key players back on defense this week, while Tennessee remains banged up everywhere, including at receiver, along the offensive line and at all three levels on defense. Mike Vraebel has done a tremendous job of getting everything he could out of this team the last couple seasons, but they are finally starting to break due to all these injuries. The Titans still have a two-game lead in the AFC South so they can afford a loss, while the Chargers can only make the playoffs through the wild card. So they will be the team playing with more of a sense of urgency this week as well.
The Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record. The Chargers are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Titans. Tennessee is 1-6 ATS in its last seven trips to Los Angeles. Los Angeles is 33-8 ATS in its last 41 games vs. AFC South opponents. The Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after two straight games attempting 40 or more passes. Roll with the Chargers Sunday.
|12-18-22||Bengals -3.5 v. Bucs||Top||34-23||Win||100||137 h 39 m||Show|
20* Bengals/Bucs Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cincinnati -3.5
The Cincinnati Bengals are 9-2 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The books haven't been able to catch up to how good this team really is. Joe Burrow is legitimately a Top 5 quarterback in this league if not the best, and he has some of the best weapons in the NFL. Plus, the Bengals have one of the most underrated defenses in the league as well.
Cincinnati ranks 7th in scoring offense at 25.8 points per game, 5th in total offense at 371.7 yards per game and 10th at 5.7 yards per play. The Bengals rank 11th in scoring defense at 20.4 points per game, 14th in total defense at 331.1 yards per game and 14th at 5.4 yards per play.
Tampa Bay has a good defense, but they just gave up 35 points to San Francisco and third-string QB Brock Purdy last week. They are a tired defense missing several key players who were playing on a short week after needing a 13-point comeback in the final few minutes of the 4th quarter to beat the Saints on Monday Night Football. They wore down against the 49ers, and now after traveling clear out West they have to travel back home this week and face a Bengals offense that will test them at ever level.
But this is a fade of Tampa Bays' offense more than anything. The Bucs rank 28th in scoring offense at 17.2 points per game and 26th at 5.0 yards per play. Tom Brady has no time to throw because of a depleted offensive line that has been terrible all season. The Bucs cannot run the ball to take pressure off Brady as they rank dead last (32nd) in rushing at 72.9 yards per game and 32nd at 3.3 yards per carry.
While the Bengals are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, the Bucs are just 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The books have been undervaluing the Bengals all season and overvaluing the Bucs, and that's the case again this week with Cincinnati as just a short road favorite. The Bengals will remain motivated as they are tied with the Ravens for 1st place in the AFC North and only one game back of the Bills and Chiefs for the No. 1 seed. The Bucs can lose this game and still control their own destiny in the putrid NFC South, so winning this game isn't as important for them as it is for the Bengals. Take the Bengals Sunday.
|12-18-22||Steelers v. Panthers -2||24-16||Loss||-110||133 h 14 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Carolina Panthers -2
Both the Carolina Panthers and Pittsburgh Steelers sit at 5-8 this season. But since the Carolina Panthers play in the weak NFC South, they are just one game out of first place with a lot to play for the rest of the way. In fact, they control their own destiny to win the division because they already beat the Bucs and play them again.
The Steelers just had their playoff hopes crushed last week with a devastating 14-16 home loss to the Baltimore Ravens and backup QB's Huntley and Brown. They lost Kenny Pickett to a concussion early in that game, and Mitch Trubisky came in and moved the ball down the field, but threw three interceptions in the red zone that cost them the game. I don't think there's much difference between Trubisky or Pickett, so I'm not concerned who starts this week. I think the spot is terrible for the Steelers as that loss to the hated Ravens is the type of loss that can beat a team twice.
I like the way the Panthers are trending and the fact that they have a lot more to play for this week. These players love Steve Wilks and are playing hard for him. They have gone 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with three outright wins as underdogs. They are 3-0 at home during this stretch with three blowout wins over the Bucs by 18, the Falcons by 10 and the Broncos by 13.
The Panthers should still be fresh this week because they had a bye two weeks ago prior to going into Seattle and winning 30-24 last week. The offense has gotten a spark as Sam Darnold is 2-0 as a starter and leading the Panthers to 26.5 points per game in the two wins. And this is one of the better defenses in the league as the Panthers rank 13th in scoring defense at 22.3 points per game and 12th at 5.3 yards per play allowed. Pittsburgh allows 5.7 yards per play for comparison.
The Steelers have been gashed on the ground in two consecutive games giving up 146 rushing yards to the Falcons and 215 rushing yards to the Ravens. That's bad news for them going up against this Carolina rushing attack that has produced 169 or more rushing yards in five of its last seven games overall. I think the Panthers can control this game by moving the ball on the ground, and Sam Darnold just needs to keep managing the game and making timely play-action completions as he has in his first two starts. Pittsburgh is scoring just 15.6 points per game on the road this season.
The Steelers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a loss by 6 points or fewer. Take the Panthers Sunday.
|12-18-22||Eagles v. Bears OVER 48.5||25-20||Loss||-110||133 h 12 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Eagles/Bears OVER 48.5
The Philadelphia Eagles are humming on offense right now scoring 41.0 points per game in their last three games overall. They are now the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL. They can name their number against what is the worst defense in the NFL currently in the Chicago Bears.
The Bears have allowed 27 or more points in six consecutive games and an average of 33.5 points per game during this stretch. But this Chicago offense has really taken off with Justin Fields. In the last six games started by Fields, the Bears are averaging 27.8 points per game. He is clearly recovered from his shoulder injury after leading the Bears to 409 total yards against the Packers in his return from injury prior to the bye last week.
I expect the Eagles to get out to a lead in this game and to continue to score at will similarly to what they did against the Giants last week when they kept pouring it on with 48 points. And Fields and the Bears will be forced to go hurry up to try and keep up with the Eagles. The one weakness of the Eagles is their running defense as they have allowed 99 or more rushing yards in eight of their last nine games. They rank 24th allowing 4.7 yards per carry. The strength of the Bears is their rushing offense that ranks 1st in the NFL at 189.2 rushing yards per game.
The forecast looks good for a shootout for this time of year in Chicago with 12 MPH winds and 0% chance of precipitation. The OVER is 7-1 in Eagles last eight games overall. The OVER is 7-0 in Eagles last seven games following a win. The OVER is 39-16 in Eagles last 55 December games. The OVER is 7-0 in Bears last seven games overall. The OVER is 10-1 in Bears last 11 games following an ATS loss. These are both dead nuts OVER teams right now. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-18-22||Lions v. Jets OVER 44||20-17||Loss||-110||85 h 26 m||Show|
15* Lions/Jets Non-Conference ANNIHILATOR on OVER 44
The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team. They have combined for 49 or more points in five consecutive games and two of those games were played outdoors at New York and at Chicago. They have averaged 32.2 points per game in their last five games and 54.8 combined points per game in their last five as well, so this is a very low total of 44 for a game involving the Lions.
The New York Jets have come to life on offense with Mike White at quarterback. They put up 31 points and 466 total yards against the Bears in White's first start. They put up 486 total yards in the Vikings in his second start. And last week they had 309 total yards against a very good Bills defense in terrible weather in Buffalo with heavy winds.
Well, the weather is expected to be very good for a game in New York in December. Forecasts are calling for 38 degrees, only 10 MPH winds and zero chance of precipitation. That's pretty great weather outdoors for a shootout for this time of year.
The Jets could set a couple offensive linemen back this week and Cory Davis is questionable. They may be without some key players on defense, most notably DL Quinnen Williams who is questionable with a calf injury. And while the Lions are playing better defensively of late, they still rank 31st in scoring defense at 26.7 points per game, 31st in total defense at 403.2 yards per game and 32nd at 6.2 yards per play.
The OVER is 9-1 in Lions last 10 road games following four or more consecutive ATS wins. The OVER is 8-1 in Lions last nine games following an ATS win. The OVER is 9-2 in Jets last 11 games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more yards per game. The OVER is 6-1 in Jets last seven games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-18-22||Cowboys v. Jaguars OVER 47.5||Top||34-40||Win||100||133 h 7 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cowboys/Jaguars OVER 47.5
The Jacksonville Jaguars are a dead nuts OVER team right now. They combined for 55 points with the Ravens, 54 with the Lions and 58 with the Titans in their last three games. It should be more of the same against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday with the forecast perfect for a shootout in Jacksonville with temps in the 50's and less than 10 MPH winds.
Trevor Lawrence is one of the most improved quarterbacks in the league this season under the guidance of Doug Pederson. He is completing 66.2% of his passes with a 20-to-6 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 218 yards and four scores. Travis Etienne is averaging 5.0 YPC, and Lawrence is loaded with weapons in Kirk, Jones, Engram and Jones Jr. on the outside.
The Dallas Cowboys are humming on offense right now as well. They have scored 28 or more points in six consecutive games and are averaging 37.7 points per game in their last six games. They will get their points against a Jacksonville defense that has really slipped in allowing at least 20 points in eight consecutive games and an average of 26.8 points per game during this stretch. Dallas has allowed at least 19 points in five of its last six games despite a very weak schedule of opposing offenses.
The OVER is 5-1 in Cowboys last six games overall. The OVER is 6-0 in Cowboys last six games following a win. The OVER is 4-0 in Jaguars last four December games. The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings. The OVER is 7-0 in Jaguars last seven games off an upset win by 14 points or more as a road underdog. These last four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-17-22||Rice v. Southern Miss -6||Top||24-38||Win||100||88 h 25 m||Show|
20* Rice/Southern Miss LendingTree Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Southern Miss -6
Southern Miss head coach Will Hall was confident that the Golden Eagles would get to a bowl game coming into the season. Well, he was right, and the Golden Eagles earned it by having to win their final game of the season to get to 6-6. They will be highly motivated to win this bowl game because they want to be here after working so hard down the stretch to get here.
Keep in mind Southern Miss opened 5-3 SU before losing three straight, including gut-wrenching losses at Coastal Carolina by 3 and to South Alabama by 7, two of the top three teams in the Sun Belt. That made their double-digit win at LA-Monroe even more impressive, and they dominated that game outgaining the Warhawks by 217 yards.
This Southern Miss offense has been better since QB Trey Lowe took over. He started the final three games and they went 3-0 ATS with him under center. Frank Gore Jr. is a warrior at RB and rushed for 1,053 yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 5.1 per carry this season. But it's the Southern Miss defense that is the best unit on the field. They allow just 23.5 points per game this season.
Rice (5-7) is only in this bowl game because of their GPA. They went 1-4 in their final five games including blowout losses to Charlotte by 33, Western Kentucky by 35 and UTSA by 34. They are down their top two quarterbacks in T.J. McMahon and Wiley Green, leaving true freshman 3rd-string QB AJ Padgett to start this bowl game. Padgett is just 20-of-40 (50%) passing this season and isn't the dual-threat that McMahon was, rushing 20 times for 20 yards.
This Rice defense has been horrendous this season. The Owls allow 33.8 points per game and 6.4 yards per play. It has been really bad down the stretch as they have allowed 41 or more points in four of their last six games overall. They are decimated by injuries at cornerback, and they haven't been able to stop the run all season. They allow 173 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry.
This will be a short trip for Southern Miss fans to Mobile, Alabama for the LendingTree Bowl. It's only an hour and 45 minutes from Hattiesburg to Mobile. It will be Hall's first bowl game as their head coach. The Golden Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take Southern Miss Saturday.
|12-17-22||Ravens v. Browns -3||Top||3-13||Win||100||113 h 45 m||Show|
20* Ravens/Browns AFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland -3
The Cleveland Browns have been on the road four of the last five weeks. In their lone home game, they beat the Tampa Bay Bucs in overtime. Now Deshaun Watson will be playing his first home game for the Browns after playing the last two on the road. This will be a much more comforting atmosphere for Watson, and I expect his best game as a Brown yet.
But this play is as much of a fade of the Ravens as it is a play on the Browns. They were very lucky to beat the Steelers 16-14 last week as the Steelers lost Kenny Pickett early, and Mitch Trubisky threw three interceptions in the red zone. The Ravens pulled off a minor miracle to win that game after only beating the Broncos 10-9 at home the previous week. Their luck runs out this week.
The Ravens will still be without Lamar Jackson, and quality backup Tyler Huntley suffered a concussion against the Steelers and is highly questionable to play this week, especially since it's a short week with this game being played on Saturday. Third stringer Anthony Brown is a big downgrade from Huntley, and this line will be much more than Cleveland -3 if Brown starts.
The numbers actually show the Browns are the better team, and that's even with Jackson up to this point. The Browns rank 6th in total offense at 368.8 yards per game while the Ravens are 14th at 347.0 yards per game. The Ravens are 12th in total defense at 330.4 yards per game while the Browns are 17th at 343.8 yards per game. So the Ravens are only outgaining opponents by 16.6 yards per game while the Browns are outgaining foes by 25 yards per game.
Plays against any team (Baltimore) - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, when playing on Saturday are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS since 1983. Plays on favorites (Cleveland) - after covering the spread in two of their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 49-20 (71%) ATS since 1983. Cleveland is favored for good reason this week, and it should be an even bigger favorite. Bet the Browns Saturday.
|12-17-22||Fresno State -3 v. Washington State||Top||29-6||Win||100||98 h 22 m||Show|
20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Fresno State -3
The Fresno State Bulldogs have won eight consecutive games heading into the LA Bowl. The last six of those have come since Jake Haener returned from injury at quarterback. This Fresno State offense has been humming with Haener averaging 37.2 points per game in their last six games. He has decided to play in the bowl despite the fact that he's going to get drafted.
This team wants to win this game for Haener in his final game at Fresno State. The defense has really stepped their game up as well allowing just 15.0 points per game during their eight-game winning streak. The Bulldogs will also be motivated to get to play a Power 5 team from the Pac-12.
Few teams have been hit harder by injuries and opt-outs heading into bowl season than Washington State. Defensive coordinator Brian Ward left for Arizona State and offensive coordinator Eric Morris left for North Texas. Three of the top four receivers are out and each of their top three linebackers are out, including first-team All-Pac-12 LB Daiyan Henley. The three receivers that are out combined for 123 receptions, 1434 yards and 11 touchdowns.
The Cougars will have their hands full trying to score without all of their top playmakers. They will also have their hands full defensively trying to stop Haener and company. This Washington State defense just gave up 51 points and 705 total yards to Washington in the season finale. That includes 485 passing yards. Well, Washington runs the same system as Fresno State because head coach Kevin Deboer left Fresno for Washington in the offseason. The Cougars couldn't stop the Huskies, and they won't be able to stop the Bulldogs, either.
This game will be played in Los Angeles, which is only a 3-hour, 30-minute drive from Fresno. Most of these kids playing for Fresno are from the LA area, so they will have a huge home-field advantage in this one at SoFi Stadium. Bet Fresno State Saturday.
|12-15-22||49ers -3 v. Seahawks||Top||21-13||Win||100||69 h 30 m||Show|
20* 49ers/Seahawks NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Francisco -3
The San Francisco 49ers are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with five wins by 13 points or more. Even in the game they failed to win by double-digits they should have as they outgained the Chargers by 149 yards in a 22-16 victory as 8.5-point favorites. They should be bigger than 3-point favorites over the Seahawks Thursday.
I know this will be Brock Purdy's first road game, but they have been better with him under center. They beat the Dolphins 33-17 as he took over for Jimmy G early in that game. Then they beat the Bucs 35-7. I know Purdy had some plays go his ways due to penalties, but the guy is cool under pressure, offers mobility that Jimmy G didn't have, and the players absolutely love him.
Purdy just needs to be a game manager in this one because the 49ers are going to run wild on this Seattle defense. The 49ers have rushed for at least 101 yards in six of their last seven games overall. The Seahawks have allowed 192 rushing yards per game in their last five games. It's a big reason they are just 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall because they cannot stop anyone. They needed a last-minute TD to beat the Rams 27-23 in their lone win, and that was a Rams team missing four of their top players in Stafford, Kupp, Donald and Robinson.
This Seattle offense is solid, but they are no match for this San Francisco defense. The 49ers rank 1st in scoring defense at 15.2 points per game, 1st in total defense at 286.8 yards per game and 3rd at 4.8 yards per play allowed. The 49ers have now allowed 17 or fewer points in six consecutive games and an average of just 10.7 points per game during this stretch.
The Seahawks haven't been able to run the ball of late averaging just 60 rushing yards per game in their last four games. They have cluster injuries at the RB position, and the offensive line has been dreadful. Geno Smith will be under duress all game, and the 49ers are a dangerous defense when they can pin their ears back.
San Francisco won the first meeting 27-7 and held the Seahawks to just 216 total yards and 14 first downs. They rushed for 189 yards in that first meeting. It should be rinse and repeat here as the 49ers have the big edge at the line of scrimmage. Purdy just has to manage the game and not turn the ball over and the 49ers run away with this one again.
Kyle Shanahan is a perfect 8-0 ATS after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in four consecutive games as the coach of San Francisco. Shanahan is 15-3 ATS after having won five or six of their last seven games as the coach of the 49ers. Bet the 49ers Thursday.
|12-12-22||Patriots v. Cardinals OVER 44||Top||27-13||Loss||-110||117 h 22 m||Show|
20* Patriots/Cardinals ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 44
The Arizona Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team right now. QB Kyler Murray is back and he has his top two receivers healthy in DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown, plus Rondale Moore should return following a bye this week. But the Cardinals have a very leaky defense that has allowed 29.8 points per game in their last six games.
The Patriots have faced one of the easiest schedules of opposing offenses this season. But they have struggled when they have faced some legit offenses. They allowed 24 points to the Bills, 33 points to the Vikings, 33 points to the Bears, 27 points to the Packers and 37 points to the Ravens. The Cardinals will hang a big number on their slow defense, too.
But the Patriots should get their points against this suspect Arizona defense. They have done well on offense against the worst defenses in the NFL. They scored 26 points against the Vikings, 38 against the Browns, 29 against the Lions, 24 against the Packers and 26 against the Ravens. I see both teams getting to at least 24 points in this one, and we only need a 24-21 final to cash this ticket.
The OVER is 6-0 in Cardinals last six games overall with combined scores of 44 or more points in all six and 48 or more points in five of them. Arizona is 6-0 OVER in its last six home games after losing three of its last four games coming in. Roll with the OVER in this game Monday.
|12-11-22||Dolphins v. Chargers OVER 51.5||17-23||Loss||-110||80 h 35 m||Show|
15* Dolphins/Chargers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 51.5
The Miami Dolphins have scored at least 30 points in four of their last five games. The only team that held them in check was the 49ers, and they probably have the best defense in the NFL. I think they hang another big number here against this depleted Chargers defense.
The Chargers have allowed at least 22 points in nine of their last 11 games overall. The only exceptions were against poor Denver and Atlanta offenses. There's a chance the Chargers get back Mike Williams and a couple offensive linemen this week, which would make them even more potent offensively. They have scored at least 20 points in seven of their last nine games overall. The Chargers rank 30th in scoring defense while the Dolphins rank 25th.
Miami just tends to get in shootouts on the road this season. The Dolphins are scoring 26.2 points per game and allowing 32.8 points per game on the road this season. That's an average of 59 combined points per game, which is 7.5 points more than this 51.5-point total. The Chargers are allowing 28.0 points per game at home this season.
The OVER is 4-0 in Dolphins last four road games. The OVER is 7-2 in Chargers last nine home games. The OVER is 10-2 in Chargers last 12 games following a loss. The OVER is 9-1 in Chargers last 10 games following a road loss. The OVER is 8-1 in Dolphins last nine road games vs. good offensive teams that average at least 350 yards per game. Take the OVER in this game Sunday night.
|12-11-22||Bucs v. 49ers -3.5||Top||7-35||Win||105||47 h 34 m||Show|
20* Bucs/49ers NFC No-Brainer on San Francisco -3.5
I recommend buying the 49ers to -3 (-125) or better. We'll back a 49ers team playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now. They are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with four wins by 13 points or more. That includes their impressive 33-17 win over the Miami Dolphins last week.
The 49ers have the Seahawks on their heels for the NFC West lead, so they don't be having a letdown this week. They get a week of practice with Brock Purdy running the offense and preparing to be the starter, which will benefit him. Purdy played well in his first significant action of the season, completing 25-of-37 passes for 210 yards with two touchdowns and one interception on a 4th down play jump ball. Players love him, and with Jimmy G being no more than a game manager, Purdy actually has more upside.
But the key here is the 49ers are going to shut down the Bucs. The 49ers rank 1st in scoring defense at 15.8 points per game, 1st in total defense at 283.9 yards per game and 5th at 4.8 yards per play. They have a tremendous defensive line and pass rush, and the Bucs have struggled against dominant defensive lines because they are missing so many starters on the offensive line, plus they just aren't very skilled in that department. It's their biggest weakness.
It's the reason the Bucs are struggling so much on offense this season. They rank 27th in scoring offense at 18.1 points per game, 17th in total offense at 340.0 yards per game and 25th at 5.0 yards per play. They managed just 3 points against the Saints last week until their final two drives against the prevent to pull out a miracle victory. The 49ers won't be playing prevent, and they will be getting after Brady for four quarters just as they did against Tua and the Dolphins last week, forcing them into four turnovers.
The Dolphins are better than the Bucs, so the 49ers can't be 4.5-point home favorites over the Dolphins and only 3.5-point home favorites against the Bucs. Especially with the Bucs now on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football and having to travel to the West Coast. The value is on the 49ers this week due to Purdy being their quarterback, which is downgrading them in the betting markets more than it should be.
The Bucs are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The 49ers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. San Francisco is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 vs. NFC opponents. The 49ers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following a non-conference game. San Francisco is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in three consecutive games. Kyle Shanahan is 7-0 ATS after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in four consecutive games as the coach of San Francisco. Bet the 49ers Sunday.
|12-11-22||Browns +6 v. Bengals||10-23||Loss||-110||86 h 9 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +6
The Cincinnati Bengals are in a massive letdown spot after their upset home win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Joe Burrow is now 3-0 against Patrick Mahomes, but he's 0-5 against the Cleveland Browns. The Browns have the Bengals' number, and that will continue Sunday.
Cleveland has saved its season with two consecutive impressive wins over the Bucs and Texans. The defense is playing at a very high level right now holding the Bucs to 17 and the Texans to 14 points, while also forcing four turnovers against the Texans that set up several easy scores.
The headlines are that Deshaun Watson struggled, but that was expected in his first game action in two years. He only attempted 22 passes and didn't have to do much because the defense controlled the game. With a game under his belt now, he should be much more prepared to shine in Cincinnati. Of course, he won't have to do too much in this one either because the Browns always run wild on the Bengals.
Indeed, the Browns are 5-0 SU in their last five meetings with the Bengals while averaging 32.8 points per game in those five wins. They have averaged 165.4 rushing yards per game in the five wins as well. Nick Chubb just has his way with this Cincinnati defense. And Cleveland gets back star TE David Njoku, who caught the game-tying TD pass against the Bucs two weeks ago.
Burrow struggles against this Cleveland defense, too. He's always under duress by Myles Garrett. The Bengals have averaged just 15.0 points per game and 253 yards per game in their last three meetings with the Browns. They lost 32-13 while getting outgained 440 to 229 by the Browns in their first meeting this season.
Plays against home teams (Cincinnati) - an excellent passing team averaging 7.3 YPA or more against an average passing team (5.9-6.7 YPA), after gaining 6.75 YPA or more in four consecutive games are 32-9 (78%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. Roll with the Browns Sunday.
|12-11-22||Vikings v. Lions||Top||23-34||Win||100||146 h 45 m||Show|
25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Lions PK
The Detroit Lions have gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall to keep their playoff hopes alive. They are very much alive and well in the NFC, and I look for them to carry that momentum into a home win over the Minnesota Vikings Sunday.
The Vikings are 10-2 and the Lions are 5-7, but when you look at the numbers there isn't that much difference between these teams. Amazingly, the Vikings are 10-2 despite getting outgained by 53 yards per game. They are the most fraudulent 10-2 team in the history of the NFL due to going 9-0 in one score games. Their luck runs out this week against the Lions.
The Vikings are coming off another misleading 27-22 home win over the Jets last week. They were outgained by 199 yards by the Jets and should have lost. There was nothing misleading about the Lions' 40-14 win over the Jaguars last week. They outgained Jacksonville by 171 yards. Their only loss during this five-game stretch came by 3 as 10-point home underdogs to the Bills on a last-second field goal.
The Lions rank 6th in scoring offense at 26.3 points per game, 7th in total offense at 369.1 yards per game and 7th at 5.8 yards per play. When they have been healthy, they have been dominant on offense. They have been healthy lately and have scored 31.8 points per game in their last four games. They will shred a Minnesota defense that ranks 31st in total defense at 398.7 yards per game and 30th at 6.0 yards per play. S Harrison Smith, CB Patrick Peterson and LB Eric Kendricks are all questionable for the Vikings this week.
Detroit wants revenge from a 24-28 loss at Minnesota in their first meeting this season. The Lions outgained the Vikings 416 to 373 and should have won. But they blew a 10-point lead in the 4th quarter and gave up 14 points in the final eight minutes, including the game-winner with 45 seconds left. They haven't forgotten, and they will get their revenge this week.
The Lions are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games. Detroit is 6-0 ATS in it last six games after scoring 25 or more points in two consecutive games. The Lions are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play in the second half of the season. Detroit is 7-0 ATS in its last seven vs. NFC North opponents. The Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. These last four trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing Detroit. Bet the Lions Sunday.
|12-11-22||Eagles v. Giants +7||Top||48-22||Loss||-110||95 h 22 m||Show|
20* NFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Giants +7
Let's just look at this from a line value perspective. The Philadelphia Eagles were 6.5-point home favorites over the Packers two weeks ago and 4.5-point home favorites over the Titans last week. The Giants beat both the Packers and Titans already this season. And now the Eagles are 7-point road favorites at the Giants. There's clearly value with the Giants catching 7 points at home.
The Giants are a tough team to get margin on. They are 7-4-1 SU & 9-3 ATS this season with only two losses coming by more than one score. And in those two losses by more than one score they actually outgained one team by 88 yards and were only outgained by 52 yards by the other, so they were misleading final scores.
The Giants rank 6th in the NFL in rushing this season at 149.7 yards per game. Well, the one weakness of the Eagles is their run defense. They have allowed at least 99 rushing yards in seven of their last eight games overall. They rank 24th in the NFL in allowing 4.6 yards per carry. The Giants can stay in this game by running the ball, extending drives and keeping the Eagles' offense off the field.
The Eagles are 5-0 SU but just 1-4 ATS on the road this season. They aren't getting margin on teams on the highway. Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings. The Giants have been home underdogs to the Eagles in each of their two previous home meetings and won both outright.
Philadelphia is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games. New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall. The Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. New York is 7-1 ATS as an underdog this season. Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games following two or more consecutive ATS wins. It's time to 'sell high' on the Eagles this week in this divisional showdown on the road. Take the Giants Sunday.
|12-08-22||Raiders -5.5 v. Rams||Top||16-17||Loss||-110||81 h 58 m||Show|
20* Raiders/Rams Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Las Vegas -5.5
The Las Vegas Raiders have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall to keep their playoff hopes alive. There was nothing fluky about any of the three wins as they outgained their three opponents in the Chargers, Seahawks and Broncos by a combined 309 yards, or by an average of 103 yards per game. Now they carry that momentum into their easiest opponent of the season Thursday night in the depleted Los Angeles Rams.
The only team worse than the Rams right now is the Houston Texans. The Rams have lost six consecutive games with four of those losses by 7 points or more. They were outgained in five of those six games and have been outgained by a total of 649 yards in those six games, or by an average of 108.2 yards per game.
Things are getting worse for the Rams before they get better. They are without their three best players for this game in Stafford, Kupp and Donald. They were so desperate that they even picked up Baker Mayfield off waivers after he wore out his welcome in Carolina. There's a chance he even plays in this game, which would be a good thing for us if he does.
The Raiders got good news on the injury front with TE Darren Waller expected to make his return from a hamstring injury to give Derek Carr another weapon. Of course, the Raiders have been thriving in the running game and with the Carr to Adams connection. They have rushed for 182 yards per game in their last three games. Adams has 79 receptions for 1,176 yards and 12 touchdowns this season.
The Rams have allowed 26 or more points in five of their six losses during this six-game skid. They have scored 20 or fewer points five times. Whoever is under center will be playing behind an offensive line that ranks dead last in the NFL in pass blocking efficiency. That's bad news going up against the tandem of Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones, who have really been getting after opposing quarterbacks in recent weeks.
This will pretty much be a home game for the Las Vegas Raiders. The fair-weather Rams fans have given up on this team already. Fans that live in the Los Angeles area, which there are millions of, will turn out to this game to support the Raiders. It's also a short trip from Las Vegas to Los Angeles. You'll hear fans cheering more for the Raiders than for the Rams in this one.
The Rams are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing 400 or more yards in two consecutive games. Los Angeles is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games vs. AFC opponents. Las Vegas is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in its previous game. The Rams are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in their previous game. Bet the Raiders Thursday.
|12-05-22||Saints v. Bucs -3.5||Top||16-17||Loss||-110||93 h 26 m||Show|
20* Saints/Bucs ESPN No-Brainer on Tampa Bay -3.5
This line has been bet down from an opener of -6.5 to -3.5 this week. That's too big of a move, and now the value is with the Bucs laying the short number at home. Keep in mind Tampa Bay was a 2.5-point road favorite at New Orleans in their first meeting this season, and is now only a 3.5-point home favorite in the rematch. That's a 1-point adjustment for home-field advantage when it should be anywhere from 4 to 6 points.
Both teams have been hit hard by injuries this season, but I still think the Bucs are better off in that department. Brady has all of his top playmakers healthy and ready to go. The defense still remains one of the best units in the league. The offensive line is a problem, but they can scheme around it, and Brady is the best at getting the most out of an offensive line.
The Saints are broken on offense and cannot be trusted. They have scored 13 or fewer points in three of their last four games and were just shut out by the 49ers last time out. Now they must take on an elite Tampa Bay defense that ranks 6th in scoring defense at 18.5 points per game, 9th in total defense at 315.2 yards per game and 8th at 5.0 yards per play. The Bucs are better on both sides of the football in this one.
New Orleans is a tired team right now as they have yet to have their bye week. Tampa Bay just had its bye week prior to losing at Cleveland last week, so they should still be pretty fresh for this one. The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last five Monday games.
Plays on any team (Tampa Bay) - after five consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 79-38 (67.5%) ATS since 1983. Roll with the Bucs Monday.
|12-04-22||Chiefs v. Bengals OVER 53||24-27||Loss||-105||66 h 35 m||Show|
15* Chiefs/Bengals AFC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 53
This game has shootout written all over it between two of the best offenses in the NFL. We are going to get the right conditions for a shootout in Cincinnati as well with the forecast calling for temps in the 40's, sunny skies, only 6 MPH wind and zero chance of precipitation.
Kansas City ranks 1st in the NFL in scoring offense at 29.6 points per game, 1st in total offense at 430 yards per game and 1st at 6.5 yards per play. Cincinnati ranks 5th in scoring offense at 25.9 points per game and those numbers would be even better if they were healthy on offense all season. Well, reinforcements are on the way this week as both WR Ja'Marr Chase and RB Joe Mixon return from injury in time for this huge showdown with Kansas City.
The return of those two cannot be overstated. Chase has 47 receptions for 605 yards and six touchdowns in only seven games this season. Mixon has 605 rushing yards and six touchdowns, while also catching 41 balls for 314 yards and two scores. Joe Burrow is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL already, and now he has his full allotment of weapons this week.
Last year Cincinnati won a 34-31 over Kansas City shootout at home while racking up 475 yards and allowing 414 yards. Each of the last four meetings in this series have seen 51 or more combined points, including 55 or more in three of those. The OVER is 8-1 in Chiefs last nine road games. The OVER is 4-1-1 in Bengals last six games overall. Kansas City is 7-0 OVER in its last seven road games vs. teams that complete 64% of their passes or better. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-04-22||Dolphins +3.5 v. 49ers||Top||17-33||Loss||-110||142 h 34 m||Show|
20* Dolphins/49ers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Miami +3.5
The Miami Dolphins are are perfect 8-0 SU in games started and finished by Tua Tagovailoa this season. That includes upset wins over the Ravens and Bills. And now I think they have a great shot of upsetting the San Francisco 49ers this week.
Miami got out to a 30-0 lead over the Houston Texans in the first half last week before calling off the dogs. They rested their starters in the second half of that game and it was a misleading 30-15 final as a result. But resting starters in the second half also keeps them fresher for this game against the 49ers. They had a bye the previous week after beating the Browns 39-17 the week prior. So they are as fresh as they can be right now.
The 49ers needed a last-minute stop to beat the Chargers by 6 three weeks ago, then went into Mexico City and beat up on a banged up Arizona team on Monday Night Football before a 13-0 win over the Saints last week. Miraculously, they shut out the Saints despite New Orleans having the ball inside the San Francisco 25-yard line three times in the second half. They missed a FG, fumbled and turned it over on downs. That was closer than a 13-0 game as the 49ers only outgained the Saints by 57 yards.
No question the 49ers have an elite defense and one of the best stop units in the NFL. But I just don't trust their offense to get margin. This line should be San Francisco -3 at the most. Jimmy G is still no more than a game manager. And three key playmakers on offense are banged up and either out or questionable in Deebo Samuel, Christan McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell.
The 49ers have faced one of the easiest schedules of opposing offenses this season. When they actually faced a top offense in the Chiefs they gave up 44 points in a 21-point loss. I think they will struggle to handle all this speed the Dolphins offer. Tyreke Hill already has 87 receptions, 1,233 yards and four touchdowns while Jaylen Waddle has 56 receptions, 963 yards and six scores. And you know Miami RB's Jeff Wilson Jr. and Raheem Mostert will be extra motivated for this game after the 49ers traded both of them away. They have combined for 1,220 rushing yards and seven scores and have been a fantastic two-headed monster.
The 49ers don't have much of a home-field advantage, and I think them being at home is being factored into this line too much. The Dolphins are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 games following an ATS win. Again, Miami is 8-0 SU in games started and finished by Tua this season. Bet the Dolphins Sunday.
|12-04-22||Seahawks -7 v. Rams||Top||27-23||Loss||-110||64 h 3 m||Show|
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Seahawks -7
The Los Angeles Rams are the worst team in the NFL in their current form. And that's crazy to say coming from a team that just won the Super Bowl. But the fact of the matter is they are without their three best players in Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald and Cooper Kupp. They are also without Allen Robinson and playing with three replacement-level receivers. Their entire offensive line is replacement-level, too.
The Rams have gone 0-5 SU & 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They lost by 17 to the 49ers, by 3 to the Bucs, by 10 to the Cardinals, by 7 to the Saints and by 16 to the Chiefs. They were held to 198 total yards against the Chiefs last week playing with third-string QB Bryce Perkins. It won't get any better for their offense this week even against a suspect Seattle defense. They can load up at the line of scrimmage because Perkins isn't going to be able to beat them through the air. He is averaging just 2.8 passing yards per attempt, and the Rams rank dead last in pass blocking efficiency.
I love the spot for the Seahawks. They are coming off two consecutive tough losses to the Bucs and Raiders. They had a bye in between so they should still be fresh. And the two losses in a row assure they won't have a letdown here against the Rams, which is what it would take for them to even be competitive. Pete Carroll is an impressive 19-4 SU & 19-3-1 ATS following two consecutive losses as the coach of Seattle.
The Rams have allowed 26 or more points in four of their last five games and they will struggle to slow down this impressive Seattle offense, especially without their best player in Aaron Donald clogging up the middle. This will be the first game he has missed this season. Seattle ranks 4th in scoring offense at 26.5 points per game and 4th at 6.0 yards per play. They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now, too.
The Seahawks are 41-20-4 ATS in their last 65 games following a loss. The Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games and will have zero home-field advantage given the current state of this team, which fans are not excited about. I think it will feel more like a home game for Seattle. Carroll is 6-0 ATS after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in two consecutive games as the coach of Seattle with the Seahawks winning by 14.1 points per game in this spot. Roll with the Seahawks Sunday.
|12-04-22||Jets v. Vikings OVER 44.5||22-27||Win||100||62 h 10 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jets/Vikings OVER 44.5
The Minnesota Vikings are a dead nuts OVER team. They have a very good offense that has recently put up 33 points against New England and 33 against Buffalo in two of their last three games. But their defense has been terrible all season, especially of late. They rank 31st in total defense at 390.7 yards per game allowed and 31st at 6.1 yards per play. They have allowed 32 points per game in their last three games and just gave up 26 points and 409 yards to a bad Patriots offense last week.
The Jets were an UNDER team in the first half of the season, but the switch to Mike White at quarterback has rejuvenated this offense. He went 22-of-29 for 308 yards and three touchdowns in a 31-10 win over Chicago last week. He has his full compliment of weapons at receiver with Cory Davis back healthy to go with the underrated duo of Wilson and Moore. White will light up this Minnesota defense, too.
The Jets have a great defense, but they have also benefited from a very easy schedule of opposing offenses. They faced the Bears and a backup QB last week, the Patriots twice, the Broncos, the Packers, the Dolphins without Tua and the Steelers. They did hold the Bills in check, but that's a division opponent they are familiar with. Against the three other top offenses they faced they gave up 24 points to the Ravens, 30 to the Browns and 27 to the Bengals. Minnesota can get 24-plus in this one pretty easily.
Minnesota's six home games this season have seen an average of 49.2 combined points per game. The Vikings are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 games after winning two of their last three games. The OVER is 8-2 in Vikings last 10 home games. The OVER is 9-2 in Vikings last 11 games on fieldturf. The OVER is 14-2 in Vikings last 16 games after rushing for fewer than 90 yards last game. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-04-22||Jaguars v. Lions OVER 50.5||Top||14-40||Win||100||69 h 38 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Lions OVER 50.5
The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team. They rank 8th in scoring offense at 25.0 points per game, 8th in total offense at 362.9 yards per game and 8th at 5.8 yards per play. The Lions are dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 28.2 points per game, 32nd in total defense at 414.5 yards per game and 32nd at 6.3 yards per play.
The Jaguars haven't exactly been stopping anyone, either. They rank 21st in allowing 5.7 yards per play this season. But they have gotten their offense going in recent weeks with 27 points three weeks ago against the Raiders and 28 against the Ravens last week. I see both teams getting 28-plus in this one, and we only need a 27-24 final to cash this OVER ticket.
The Lions have really been an OVER team of late because they have gotten healthy on offense. They have scored 25, 31 and 31 points in their last three games overall. Detroit's five non-divisional home games have all seen 53 or more combined points and an average of 68 combined points per game.
The OVER is 6-1 in Jaguars last seven road games. The OVER is 9-4 in Lions last 13 games overall. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-03-22||Purdue +17 v. Michigan||Top||22-43||Loss||-110||117 h 23 m||Show|
20* CFB Conference Championship GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue +17
This is a terrible spot for Michigan. The Wolverines just went on the road and upset the Ohio State Buckeyes to shock the country. It was their first win in Columbus in 22 years. That win punched their ticket into the four-team playoff regardless of whether they lose this game to Purdue or not. As a result, I don't think they will be fully motivated, and that's going to make it tough for them to cover this inflated number.
This is exactly the role that I like to back Jeff Brohm. He is great as a big underdog. Brohm is 22-11 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Purdue. Brohm is 15-3 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game as the coach of the Boilermakers. Brohm is 7-0 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 17 or fewer points per game as the coach of Purdue. Brohm is 9-1 ATS after winning six or seven of his last eight games as a head coach.
Purdue star QB Aidan O'Connell lost his brother but still played in a 30-16 win at Indiana to punch Purdue's ticket into the title game. Players will rally around him, and they'll be extra motivated to win this game for their humble quarterback who just does things the right way, earning his spot as a walk on. He is completing 63.8% of his passes for 3,115 yards with a 22-to-11 TD/INT ratio this season. He has formed a great chemistry with former high school teammate Charlie Jones, who has 97 receptions for 1,199 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Michigan will gets its points, but Purdue's defense is good enough to hold them in check. The Boilermakers have an underrated stop unit allowing 23.1 points per game and 347 yards per game. This game will be played in a dome in Indianapolis, which favors this Purdue offense as well. Any time the conditions have been perfect this Purdue offense has thrived. The only few games they struggled they were either without O'Connell or playing in a ton of wind outdoors. Bet Purdue Saturday.
|12-03-22||Purdue v. Michigan OVER 51.5||Top||22-43||Win||100||117 h 23 m||Show|
20* CFB Conference Championship TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Purdue/Michigan OVER 51.5
It will be perfect conditions for a shootout inside the dome in Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship Game. I think both teams will be playing pretty freely. Michigan already knows it will be going to the four-team playoff win or lose, while Purdue is just happy to be here after winning the Big Ten West. I expect both offenses to thrive, and both defenses to struggle in this one.
Purdue has lit up the scoreboard when Aidan O'Connell has been healthy and the weather conditions have been good. Keep in mind the only game they played in a dome this season they lost 29-32 at Syracuse for 62 combined points. They had 485 total yards in that defeat to the Orange early in the season. The Boilermakers haven't faced an offense as good as Michigan, either. They lost a 31-35 shootout to Penn State and beat Maryland 31-29 in two games against the two best offenses they have faced.
Michigan has yet to play in a dome this season, but we just saw them put up 45 points and 532 total yards against Ohio State on the road. They have played a weak schedule of opposing offenses this season, and certainly not many passing attacks as good as this Purdue pass attack. They beat Maryland 34-27 for 61 combined points, combined with Penn State for 58 points and combined for 68 points with Ohio State against the three best offenses they have faced.
Michigan is 13-3 OVER in its last 16 games as a neutral field favorite. Harbaugh is 6-0 OVER as a neutral field favorite as the coach of Michigan. The OVER is 8-1 in Boilermakers last nine games following an ATS win. Take the OVER in this game Saturday.
|12-03-22||Fresno State +3.5 v. Boise State||28-16||Win||100||113 h 23 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Fresno State +3.5
Jake Haener is one of the best quarterbacks in the country. Fresno State is 5-0 in his five starts since returning from injury while outscoring the opposition by a total of 110 points and by an average of 22.0 points per game to punch their tickets into the Mountain West Championship Game for a rematch with Boise State.
Haener is completing 73.5% of his passes for 2,432 yards with a 17-to-3 TD/INT ratio in only eight games this season. Keep in mind Haener did not play in their 40-20 loss at Boise State in their first meeting. His presence is going to make all the difference for the Bulldogs, and I fully expect them to win this game outright.
Boise State was fortunate to beat both Wyoming and Utah State in its final two games of the season. They won 20-17 at Wyoming as 14.5-point favorites, the same Wyoming team that Fresno just beat 30-0. Last week they were leading by 5 against Utah State in the final minutes and got a red zone stop. They promptly rushed 91 yards for a TD and got a pick-6 to turn a 5-point game into a 19-point game, and one of the worst beats in history for Utah State +17 backers like myself. That misleading final is definitely playing into this line. They gave up 468 yards to Utah State.
While the return of Haener has been huge for the Bulldogs, the play of their defense has been just as important during their current seven-game winning streak. They won two games without Haener by holding San Jose State to 10 points and New Mexico to 9. They are allowing just 14.9 points per game in their last seven games. I think getting a second chance at this Boise State offense, this defense will be much more prepared and won't be caught by surprise by dual-threat QB Taylen Green.
Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Fresno State) - a good offensive team (390-440 YPG) against an average offensive team (330-390 YPG), after allowing 3.75 yards per play or fewer in their previous game are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS since 1992. The Bulldogs are 27-13-2 ATS in their last 42 games following an ATS win. The Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. The underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. Roll with Fresno State Saturday.
|12-02-22||Utah v. USC OVER 66.5||Top||47-24||Win||100||93 h 23 m||Show|
20* Utah/USC Pac-12 Championship No-Brainer on OVER 66.5
Utah and USC played in a 43-42 shootout in their first meeting this season for 85 combined points and 1,118 yards between them. That game was played outdoors in the elements in Salt Lake City, and this one will be played indoors in the dome at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. It should be another shootout between these teams in the Pac-12 Championship rematch.
USC has scored at least 38 points in six consecutive games and averages 42.5 points points per game, 508 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play on the season. No team has more talent on offense than the Trojans. That's how they have been able to get away with a poor defense that allows 405 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play on the season. Caleb Williams is the Heisman front-runner with 65.8% completions and a 34-to-3 TD/INT ratio, to go along with 351 rushing yards and 10 scores.
Utah has been much more offensive-minded than normal this season. The Utes average 39.4 points per game, 468 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play. That's impressive considering star QB Cam Rising even missed a game where they only scored 21 points against Washington State. Riding is completing 66.4% of his passes with 22 touchdowns, while also rushing for 392 yards and six scores. He'll be able to match Williams and USC score for score.
The OVER is 6-0 in Trojans last six games overall with 65 or more combined points in all six, and 72 or more combined points in five of them. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|12-02-22||Akron +12 v. Buffalo||22-23||Win||100||86 h 24 m||Show|
15* Akron/Buffalo MAC Early ANNIHILATOR on Akron +12
The Akron Zips have quietly gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They only lost by 7 to Central Michigan as 12-point dogs, lost by 6 at Kent State as 16-point dogs while outgaining them by 37 yards, lost by 18 to Miami Ohio despite outgaining them by 128 yards, lost by 6 to Eastern Michigan as 6.5-point dogs despite outgaing them by 41 yards and crushed Northern Illinois by 32 as 9.5-point dogs while outgaining them by 251 yards.
So, Akron has outgained four consecutive opponents by a total of 457 yards and by an average of 114.3 yards per game. This despite being underdogs in all four games! This team is much better than they get credit for. They just racked up 512 yards on Northern Illinois with a backup QB, so I'm not concerned whether or not DJ Irons plays in this game as he's questionable. Backup Undercuffler threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns against NIU.
Buffalo has all the pressure on its shoulders. The Bulls were sitting at 5-3 needing just one win in to clinch a bowl berth. Instead, they have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall with a 21-point loss at Ohio, a 4-point loss at Central Michigan and a 3-point home loss to Kent State. That home loss to Kent State was brutal last week. They led by 14 with 7 minutes left and lost in overtime to a backup quarterback for the Golden Flashes, who had nothing to play for at 4-7 on the season coming in.
I don't know how Buffalo gets back up off the mat after that crushing OT loss to Kent State. I know they will be feeling the pressure, and this team simply isn't that good when you look at the numbers. They are getting outgained by 1.2 yards per play on the season, averaging just 5.0 yards per play on offense and giving up 6.2 yards per play on defense. Even Akron has a better yards per play differential than Buffalo. The Zips will be free-rolling in this game with no pressure at all.
Buffalo is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a loss to a conference opponent. The Bulls are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss. Buffalo is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a SU loss. Take Akron Friday.
|12-01-22||Bills -3 v. Patriots||Top||24-10||Win||100||10 h 32 m||Show|
20* Bills/Patriots AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo -3
The Buffalo Bills did not punt once in their final two meetings with the New England Patriots last season. They won the final regular season meeting 33-21 on the road while outgaining the Patriots 428 to 288. They won 47-17 in the playoffs while outgaining the Patriots 482 to 305.
Sure, the Patriots pulled the upset in Buffalo in the first meeting last season, but that was mostly weather related as the conditions were terrible and windy. Well, the conditions will be nearly perfect for a game in New England for this time of year with 32 degrees, only 6 MPH winds and no precipitation in the forecast.
The Bills are the better team, period. They rank 2nd in scoring offense at 28.1 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 415.9 yards per game and 2nd at 6.3 yards per play. The Patriots are 18th in scoring offense at 21.7 points per game, 21st in total offense at 325.9 yards per game and 17th at 5.4 yards per play. These teams are almost dead even in defensive stats this season, but the edge the Bills have on offense should warrant them being more than 3-point favorites here.
The road team is 19-7-2 ATS in the last 28 meetings. I recommend buying the Bills down from -3.5 to -3 -130 or better. Bet the Bills Thursday.
|12-01-22||Bills v. Patriots OVER 43.5||Top||24-10||Loss||-110||10 h 32 m||Show|
20* Bills/Patriots AFC East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on OVER 43.5
The Buffalo Bills did not punt once in their final two meetings with the New England Patriots last season. They won the final regular season meeting 33-21 for 54 combined points on the road while outgaining the Patriots 428 to 288. They won 47-17 for 64 combined points in the playoffs while outgaining the Patriots 482 to 305.
Sure, the Patriots pulled the upset in Buffalo in the first meeting last season, but that was mostly weather related as the conditions were terrible and windy. Well, the conditions will be nearly perfect for a game in New England for this time of year with 32 degrees, only 6 MPH winds and no precipitation in the forecast.
The Bills rank 2nd in scoring offense at 28.1 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 415.9 yards per game and 2nd at 6.3 yards per play. They are going to get their points, and the Patriots are going to have to throw the ball more than they want to to try and stay in this game. This is such a low total for a game involving Buffalo. In fact, this 43.5-point total is the lowest of the season for a Buffalo game. That fact alone shows there's value with the OVER.
Mac Jones is coming off one of the best games of his career. He led the Patriots to 26 points against the Vikings while throwing for 364 yards. Unfortunately, they lost that game by 7 as their defense proved vulnerable giving up 33 points to the Vikings. And we saw the Vikings and Bills play in a shootout recently that saw 63 combined points.
New England is 18-4 OVER in its last 22 home games after passing for more than 350 yards in its previous game. Buffalo is 8-1 OVER in its last nine games after winning six or seven of its last eight games. Take the OVER in this game Thursday.
|11-28-22||Steelers v. Colts OVER 39||Top||24-17||Win||100||22 h 3 m||Show|
20* Steelers/Colts ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 39
Both the Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7) and Indianapolis Colts (4-6-1) suffered crushing losses to their playoff hopes last week. The Steelers lost 30-37 at home to the Bengals, while the Colts blew a double-digit 4th quarter lead in a 17-16 home loss to the Eagles. I expect a pretty care-free game here on Monday Night Football with both offenses performing better than expected.
The Colts have been better offensively since getting both Matt Ryan and Johnathan Taylor back from injury. They have averaged 20.5 points per game in their last two games against the Raiders and Eagles. They have been able to run the football, and Ryan is making enough plays in play-action to keep the offense moving. Now they'll be up against a Steelers defense that just allowed 37 points and 408 total yards to the Bengals last week.
The Steelers finally got their offense going the past two weeks under Kenny Pickett. After scoring 20 points and gaining 379 yards against the Saints two weeks ago, they put up 30 points and 351 yards on the Bengals last week. Najee Harris looks fully healthy now and has rushed for 90-plus yards in consecutive weeks.
Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 35.5 to 42 points (Pittsburgh) - off a close division loss by 7 points or less with a losing record on the season are 34-14 (70.8%) over the last 10 seasons. The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings. Expect more offense than the books are giving these teams credit for in this standalone game. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.
|11-27-22||Raiders v. Seahawks -3.5||40-34||Loss||-110||63 h 2 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Seattle Seahawks -3.5
The Seattle Seahawks are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming to the Tampa Bay Bucs in Germany last time out. They won those four games all by double-digits. They are coming off their bye week and will be rested and ready to go as they try and win the NFC West here down the stretch. They sit at 6-4 on the season with an excellent chance to do just that with the way they are playing.
This line would be bigger had the Raiders not pulled off the 22-16 (OT) upset in Denver last week. But that was a Denver team that has more players on injured reserve than any other team in the NFL, and they took advantage. I expect the Raiders to still be pretty tired from that OT win, plus this is a team that went 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their previous three games with losses to the Saints, Jaguars and Colts while getting outscored 76-40 in the process.
Despite the win last week, the Raiders are just 3-7 this season and out of the playoff hunt. They are still without two of Derek Carr's favorite weapons in TE Waller and WR Renfrow, and they could be without RB Josh Jacobs, who is questionable with an ankle injury. They don't have the horses on offense right now to keep up with Seattle, and they certainly don't have the defense to slow down the Seahawks.
Seattle ranks 5th in scoring offense this season at 25.7 points per game and 4th at 6.0 yards per play, and it has shredded defenses like the Raiders all season. Las Vegas ranks 24th in scoring defense at 24.2 points per game, 27th in total defense at 370.5 yards per game and 28th at 5.9 yards per play. Seattle has really been buttoned up defensively of late and has one of the most improved stop units in the NFL. The Seahawks are allowing just 17.4 points per game in their last five games.
Seattle is 6-0 ATS in his last six home games following a loss by 6 points or less. The Seahawks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. poor defenses that allow 5.65 or more yards per play. Pete Carroll is 45-24-4 ATS following a loss as the coach of Seattle. The Seahawks are 41-19-4 ATS in their last 64 games following a loss. Bet the Seahawks Sunday.
|11-27-22||Broncos v. Panthers +2||10-23||Win||100||60 h 56 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Carolina Panthers +2
The Carolina Panthers continue to show up every week under interim head coach Steve Wilks. They have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games. They have upset wins over Tampa Bay 21-3 as 13-point dogs and Atlanta by 10 as 2-point dogs. They also only lost by 3 at Atlanta as 4-point dogs. They gave the Ravens all they wanted last week in a game that was tied 3-3 with under 10 minutes to go, eventually losing 13-3 as 13-point dogs after a couple of late turnovers.
This week the offense gets a spark with Sam Darnold expected to be the starting quarterback. He cannot possibly be a downgrade to Baker Mayfield or PJ Walker. I think at least for one week, this offense will be excited to see a new face in the huddle and will perform well. But this game will be played on the ground with a 100% chance of precipitation and 16 MPH winds.
The Panthers have been great running the ball in recent weeks, averaging 134.8 rushing yards per game in their last five games. Denver is doing nothing well offensively. The Broncos rank dead last (32nd) in scoring offense at 14.7 points per game. They rank 24th in rushing at 102.6 yards per game and 28th at 3.9 yards per carry. With this game being played mostly on the ground, it's definitely worth noting the Panthers rank 17th allowing 4.5 yards per carry while the Broncos rank 26th at 4.7 yards per carry allowed.
No team has been hit harder by injuries than the Broncos. They have more players on the injury report and more players on injured reserve than any other team in the NFL. They are going to be without two of their best receivers again in Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler. The offensive line is a mess as Russell Wilson has no time to throw the ball, which is a big reason the offense has struggled so much.
This Denver defense has kept the team in games for much of the season, but they are tired of it at this point. Denver sits at 3-7 with nothing to play for the rest of the way after a 22-16 (OT) home loss to the Las Vegas Raiders last week. They even gave up 409 total yards to a bad Raiders offense that is missing several key weapons. I don't think they'll have it in them to match the physicality of this Carolina rush offense this week, especially being extra tired coming off an OT game.
Plays against favorites (Denver) - a poor offensive team that scores 17 or fewer points per game are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Denver has no business being a road favorite over anyone right now given all their injuries. Roll with the Panthers Sunday.
|11-27-22||Bucs -3 v. Browns||Top||17-23||Loss||-110||158 h 56 m||Show|
25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Bucs -3
The Tampa Bay Bucs saved their season two games back when they put together a last-second touchdown drive to beat the Rams. They followed it up with a 21-16 win over Seattle in Germany in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed. The Bucs outgained the Seahawks 419 to 283, or by 136 total yards.
Now the Bucs are in a great spot here coming off their bye week. They are as healthy as they have been all season. Look for them to carry their positive momentum into this showdown with the Cleveland Browns, who are just waiting to get DeShaun Watson in the lineup next week. Jacoby Brissett is just a sitting duck this week.
The Browns sit at 3-7 on the season and out of the playoff hunt after losing six of their last seven games overall. They followed up a 17-39 loss at Miami with a 23-31 loss to Buffalo in Detroit last week in what was a hectic week due to the game being moved. Keep in mind the Browns scored in the final seconds in garbage time to turn a 15-point game into an 8-point game against the Bills.
Injuries are really starting to pile up for the Browns, too. They just lost All-Pro C Ethan Pocic last week to a knee injury that has landed him on injured reserve. The entire offensive line is pretty much banged up, which is why the Browns have struggled to run the football in recent weeks, which used to be their strength. They have rushed for just 192 yards on 50 carries the last two weeks against the Dolphins and Bills for 3.8 per carry.
But the biggest problem for the Browns is a leaky, banged up defense. They rank 30th in the NFL in scoring defense at 26.9 points per game and 24th allowing 5.8 yards per play. The Bucs have come to life offensively in recent weeks, and they should hang a big number on Cleveland this week. The move to give third-round rookie RB Rashaad White more touches is paying off. He rushed for 105 yards against the Seahawks last time out. Brady has pretty much his full compliment of weapons now in Evans, Godwin, Jones, Miller and Brate healthy.
The Bucs rank 4th in scoring defense at 18.0 points per game, 8th in total defense at 310.0 yards per game and 8th at 5.0 yards per play allowed. The Browns are 24-51-1 ATS in their last 76 games following a loss. I just think this is a terrible spot for the Browns given their season outlook currently and with Watson coming back next week. It's a great spot for the Bucs off a bye, as healthy as they have been all season, and with positive momentum as they try and win the NFC South down the stretch. Bet the Bucs Sunday.
|11-27-22||Ravens v. Jaguars +4||Top||27-28||Win||100||158 h 56 m||Show|
20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars +4
I love the spot for the Jacksonville Jaguars this week. They are coming off a bye under first-year head coach Doug Pederson. First-year head coaches can really get some good work in on bye weeks, and I look for this Jaguars team to come out of it very sharp.
Jacksonville is much better than its 3-7 record would indicate. Six of the seven losses have come by one score, so they have been unfortunate in close games. The only one that wasn't a one-score loss was a 10-point loss at Kansas City in which they went 1-for-3 on field goals, otherwise it would have been a one-score loss.
Jacksonville is actually outgaining teams by 5 yards per game on the season, outscoring opponents by 1.1 points per game, and dead even in yards per play on offense and defense at 5.7. This is more like a .500 team than one that is just 3-7 this season, which provides us some line value with the Jaguars moving forward. The Ravens shouldn't be more than 3-point road favorites here.
Baltimore is getting too much love for this four-game winning streak over Cleveland, Tampa Bay, New Orleans and Carolina. It was ugly last week against the Panthers as the offense was broken. It was a 3-3 game with 9 minutes left in the 4th quarter before the Ravens eventually won 13-3 after getting some late turnovers by the Panthers.
Lamar Jackson doesn't look right and is clearly playing through injury. TE Mark Andrews is playing through injury, and Jackson misses his best deep threat in Rashod Bateman, who is on IR. Jackson has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in six of his last seven games. Stop Baltimore's rushing attack and you have a chance.
Well, the Jaguars are pretty good at stopping the run. The Jaguars rank 10th in the NFL allowing 110.1 rushing yards per game. They are also 8th in the NFL in allowing just 4.2 yards per carry. The Ravens' best lineman in T Ronnie Stanley got injured last week and is questionable this week as well.
Baltimore is a woeful 1-9 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons. It is actually getting outscored by 1.8 points per game in this spot. Pederson is 13-3 ATS vs. good rushing defenses that allow 90 or fewer rushing yards per game as a head coach. The Jaguars are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a bye week. They're probably the healthiest team in the NFL right now with only four players on the injury report. Take the Jaguars Sunday.
|11-27-22||Falcons v. Commanders -3||Top||13-19||Win||100||158 h 50 m||Show|
20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Commanders -3
The Washington Commanders have gone 5-1 in their last six games overall to get to 6-5 this season and back in the playoff hunt, sitting in 7th place in the NFC. They won't be having a letdown this week considering they host the Atlanta Falcons, who are one game behind them. I think Washington is by far the superior team in this matchup and should be more than a 3-point favorite at home.
The offense has a certain swagger with Taylor Heineke at quarterback. Players love this guy. He is making all the plays he needs to make to get wins. The Commanders have victories over Green Bay, Indianapolis, Philadelphia and Houston with their lone loss coming to the Vikings by 3 in Heineke's last five starts. But it's this Washington defense that is the reason they are going to win and cover this week.
Atlanta can't match Washington defensively. The Commanders rank 12th in scoring defense at 20.3 points per game, 6th in total defense at 308.0 yards per game and 11th at 5.2 yards per play allowed. Atlanta ranks 27th in scoring defense at 24.9 points per game, 29th in total defense at 389.4 yards per game and 29th at 5.9 yards per play allowed.
There is a 100% chance of precipitation so this game will be played on the ground. That's especially the case for the Falcons, who just lost one of their best weapons in TE Kyle Pitts to injured reserve last week with a knee injury. The Falcons average 159 rushing yards per game and only 154 passing. Well, Washington ranks 6th against the run allowing 103.1 yards per game and 9th at 4.2 yards per carry. They haven't allowed anything on the ground in four of their last five games, holding the Packers to 38 rushing yards, the Vikings to 56, the Eagles to 94 and the Texans to 21. They may get Chase Young back, too.
Washington is more balanced and has gotten its running game going in recent weeks with 128 or more rushing yards in five of its last six games. The Commanders should be able to run all over an Atlanta defense that ranks 21st in allowing 123.1 rushing yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry. After allowing 232 rushing yards to the Panthers two weeks ago, the Falcons gave up 160 more to the Bears last week.
Washington is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 6 or more yards per play in the second half of the season. Ron Rivera is 9-1 ATS in Weeks 10 through 13 as the coach of Washington. The Commanders are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall, and 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight November games. It's not time to step in front of this freight train in Washington just yet as the Falcons won't be the team that offers resistance to them. Take the Commanders Sunday.
|11-26-22||BYU -6.5 v. Stanford||35-26||Win||100||116 h 23 m||Show|
15* BYU/Stanford FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on BYU -6.5
Stanford is 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall. This is a dead Cardinal team sitting at 3-8 this season and just wanting this disaster of a season to be over with. They have lost four consecutive games by an average of 26.3 points per game. Expect another blowout loss for the Cardinal in the season finale.
BYU is the fresher team coming off a 52-26 win over Dixie State last week that followed up a bye the previous week. They are rested and ready to go, while Stanford will be playing for a 10th consecutive week. Injuries and attrition have hurt the Cardinal, and they are going to have a hard time getting back up off the mat after a tough 27-20 loss at Cal last week.
BYU has an elite offense that averages 31.65 points per game, 440 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play this season. The Cougars can name their score on this Cardinal defense that allows 31.9 points per game, 434 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play. BYU is good against the pass but poor against the run, but that's not a problem here because Stanford only averages 113 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season.
Plays against home teams (Stanford) - after being beaten by the spread by 40 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Stanford is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after losing four or five of its last six games. The Cardinal are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following two or more consecutive ATS losses. Stanford is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. good passing teams that average 250 or more passing yards per game. The Cardinal are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games. Take BYU Saturday.
|11-26-22||Air Force v. San Diego State +2||13-3||Loss||-108||114 h 22 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on San Diego State +2
The San Diego State Aztecs are quietly playing their best football of the season. San Diego State is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall. After winning 23-7 at Nevada as a 7-point favorite, the Aztecs gave Jake Haener and Fresno State all they wanted in a 28-32 road loss as 11-point dogs. They outgained the Bulldogs by 58 yards in that game and should have won, but gave up two touchdowns in a span of 13 seconds in the final two minutes. They blew a 28-10 lead.
They were clearly flat the next week in a 14-10 win over UNLV as 5-point favorites, but that was a UNLV team off a bye that had just gotten starting QB Doug Brumfield back. UNLV just gave Fresno all they wanted two weeks ago, too. But the Aztecs put together their most complete performance of the season two weeks ago in a 43-27 win over a very good San Jose State team. They outgained the Spartans by 202 yards in the win. And last week they handled their business in a 34-10 win at New Mexico while outgaining the Lobos by 250 yards.
San Diego State finally has a legitimate offense this season with Jalen Mayden at quarterback. He is completing 65% of his passes for 1,533 yards with a 10-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9 yards per attempt in limited action and just recently taking over. Mayden also provides them with a dual threat, rushing for 209 yards and three scores at 4.1 per attempt.
The Aztecs have topped 417 total yards in four of their last six games. They still have a very good defense and do every year. They rank 34th in total defense at 340.0 yards per game and 31st in scoring defense at 20.8 points per game. They are 24th against the run, allowing 115.9 yards per game and 3.8 per carry on the ground and that makes this a good matchup for them facing Air Force.
The Falcons rely almost exclusively on the run to move the football, averaging 342 rushing yards per game and only 73 passing yards per game. That's why San Diego State owns Air Force because they are good against the run every year. Indeed, San Diego State is 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. They cannot be home underdogs to the Falcons given this head-to-head history and how well they are playing down the stretch. Wrong team favored here. Bet San Diego State Saturday.
|11-26-22||LSU -9.5 v. Texas A&M||23-38||Loss||-110||113 h 33 m||Show|
15* LSU/Texas A&M ESPN ANNIHILATOR on LSU -9.5
LSU is making a run at the four-team playoff and needs more style points this week plus a win over Georgia in the SEC Championship Game to get in. The Tigers are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with double-digit wins over Florida by 10, Ole Miss by 25 and UAB by 31. They also upset Alabama at home and went on the road and beat Arkansas by 3 during this stretch.
Now the Tigers should keep pouring it on a Texas A&M team that is just ready for this season to be over. The Aggies are 4-7 this season, including 1-6 SU & 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. The lone win was a lackluster 20-3 home win as 32-point favorites last week over a UMass team that is one of the worst in all of college football. They lost their previous home game to Florida by 17.
I just don't see the Aggies being interested at all in this game, so that's why I'm willing to lay the points on the road with LSU. It might not matter even if Texas A&M shows up because they are that bad and that injured right now. We will get an 'A' effort from LSU, and that should be enough to cover this number on the road. Roll with LSU Saturday.
|11-26-22||Appalachian State -4.5 v. Georgia Southern||Top||48-51||Loss||-110||111 h 25 m||Show|
20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Appalachian State -4.5
Georgia Southern opened 5-3 this season. They now sit at 5-6 and feeling the pressure of trying to clinch a bowl berth. I don't think they get it done this week against an Appalachian State team that is one of the best teams in the Sun Belt.
Injuries have really hurt the Panthers down the stretch. QB Kyle Vantrease isn't 100% and he is missing his two best playmakers at receiver in Burgess Jr. and Jones, who have combined for 93 receptions for 1,200 yards and 13 touchdowns this season. They were held to 17 points against Lafayette two weeks ago and 10 points by Marshall last week.
Now they face another great defense in this Appalachian State stop unit that has allowed just 24.5 points and 336 yards per game this season. They are holding opponents to 204 passing yards per game. This is a great Appalachian State offense that puts up 33.7 points and 440 yards per game. They should score enough to cover against this soft Georgia Southern defense that allows 30.9 points and 487 yards per game, including 229 rushing yards per game and 5.6 per carry. App State wants to run the ball, averaging 189 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry.
Plays against home underdog (Georgia Southern) - a terrible defensive team allowing 440 or more yards per game against a good defensive team (330-390 YPG) after seven-plus games, after allowing 525 or more yards in their previous game are 34-12 (73.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
Appalachian State is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games vs. excellent passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards pre game. The Mountaineers won 27-3 last year and 34-26 on the road two seasons ago in their last two meetings with the Panthers. Take Appalachian State Saturday.
|11-26-22||Appalachian State v. Georgia Southern UNDER 61.5||Top||48-51||Loss||-110||111 h 25 m||Show|
20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on App State/GA Southern UNDER 61.5
Injuries have really hurt the the Georgia Southern Panthers on offense down the stretch. QB Kyle Vantrease isn't 100% and he is missing his two best playmakers at receiver in Burgess Jr. and Jones, who have combined for 93 receptions for 1,200 yards and 13 touchdowns this season. They were held to 17 points against Lafayette two weeks ago and 10 points by Marshall last week.
Now they face another great defense in this Appalachian State stop unit that has allowed just 24.5 points and 336 yards per game this season. They are holding opponents to 204 passing yards per game. And the books are failing to adjust these Georgia Southern totals down because they put up gaudy offensive number in the first half of the season. This isn't close to the same offense, and we are getting value here on the UNDER 61.5 Saturday.
Weather could be an issue here too with double-digit winds and a 33% chance of rain. I don't think we need weather to cash this UNDER, though. Appalachian State is going to want to run the football and keep the clock moving to keep this Georgia Southern offense off the field. They shoud have a run-heavy plan after rushing 42 times for 207 yards against Old Dominion last week after rushing 40 times against Marshall the previous week. Georgia Southern cannot stop the run, so they will keep going to their ground game.
Nine of Appalachian State's 11 games this season have seen 60 or fewer combined points. Each of the last 10 meetings between Appalachian State and Georgia Southern have seen 60 or fewer combined points, making for a 9-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 61.5-point total. The UNDER is 10-1 in App State's last 11 games following a conference win by 10 points or more. The UNDER is 8-1 in Georgia Southern's last nine home games following an ATS loss. Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|11-26-22||Southern Miss -3 v. UL-Monroe||20-10||Win||100||110 h 22 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Southern Miss -3
Will Hall has a desperate Southern Miss team that wants to get to a bowl game sitting at 5-6 heading into their regular season finale. Hall has done a tremendous job turning around this program, and the Golden Eagles are much better than their 5-6 record would indicate.
The six losses have come to Liberty, Miami, Troy, Georgia State, Coastal Carolina and South Alabama. They lost by 2 to Liberty, by 3 to Coastal and by 7 to South Alabama. They even have a win over Tulane, which may end up winning the AAC.They have handled the teams they are supposed to handle, and they are supposed to handle LA-Monroe this week.
I question LA-Monroe's motivation this week after losing 34-16 to Troy last week to fall to 4-7, eliminating them from bowl contention. They had won their previous two games by a combined 4 points to stay alive, but now their dreams are crushed. I don't expect them to show up at all this week, at least not with the same intensity of Southern Miss.
LA-Monroe just isn't very good. The Warhawks are getting outgained by nearly 100 yards pre game this season and 0.8 yards per play. They have a terrible defense that allows 35.7 yards per game, and QB Trey Lowe and this Southern Miss offense are in line for one of their best games of the season. They will be able to run on a Monroe defense that allows 189 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry. And Southern Miss has one of the best defenses in the conference, allowing 24.7 points per game and 5.5 yards per play.
Southern Miss is 7-1 ATS when playing with 6 or fewer days' rest this season. The Golden Eagles are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a cover where they straight up as an underdog. Monroe is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after winning two of its last three games. Southern Miss is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games. The Golden Eagles are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Take Southern Miss Saturday.
|11-26-22||Iowa State +10.5 v. TCU||Top||14-62||Loss||-110||109 h 25 m||Show|
25* College Football DOG OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +10.5
For starters, Iowa State might be the best 4-7 team in the history of college football. TCU might be the worst 11-0 team in the history of college football. Couple those two facts in my opinion and we are getting tremendous line value with the Cyclones as double-digit underdogs to the fraudulent Horned Frogs.
Iowa State averages 374.3 yards per game on offense and allows 277.6 yards per game on defense, outgaining opponents by nearly 100 yards per game. TCU averages 482.5 yards per game on offense and allows 388.5 yards per game on defense, outgaining teams by nearly 100 yards per game as well. Iowa State actually has the better yardage differential, though!
The difference in the records is that Iowa State has had terrible luck in close games, while TCU has had tremendous luck. Six of Iowa State's seven losses have come by 7 points or less this season. Eight of TCU's 11 wins this season have come by 10 points or fewer. The exceptions were Colorado, Tarleton State and an Oklahoma team that lost their starting QB.
Iowa State will treat this as their National Championship game with a chance to knock off TCU from the unbeaten ranks since the Cyclones aren't going to a bowl. These players love Matt Campbell and will show up for him this week. TCU has all the pressure on its shoulders needing to win this game if they want to make the four-team playoff. I'll gladly back the care-free team than the tight Horned Frogs in this one.
Iowa State is one of the originators of the 3-3-5 defense that stops spread attacks. They give up just 172 passing yards per game this season. They will keep TCU's aerial assault in check by dropping eight back into coverage and getting pressure with just three. They've done it for years under Campbell, and this will be the best defense that TCU has faced yet this season.
The Cyclones are 23-11-1 ATS in their last 35 games following a loss. Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with TCU. Campbell is 23-13 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Iowa State. He rarely loses by double-digits, and he won't be losing by double-digits Saturday. Don't be surprised to see the Cyclones pull the upset so make sure you sprinkle a little on the money line, too. Bet Iowa State Saturday.
|11-26-22||Auburn +22 v. Alabama||Top||27-49||Push||0||109 h 1 m||Show|
20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Auburn +22
Alabama was eliminated from playoff contention with a 31-32 loss at LSU three games ago. They were flat in 6-point win over Ole Miss as double-digit favorites the next week, and last week they were flat again in a 34-0 win over Austin Peay as 44-point favorites. They won't be that motivated to beat Auburn either knowing they won't be going to the four-team playoff.
Bryce Young is still nursing a shoulder injury and this Alabama offense has been held in check because of it. They have scored 34 or fewer points in four consecutive games. I expect Auburn to hold them to 34 or fewer too, which is going to make it tough for Alabama to cover this massive 22-point spread.
I know I'm going to get an 'A' effort from Auburn, which wants to make a bowl game at 5-6 this season. These players absolutely love former player Cadillac Williams, their interim head coach. They have showed up every week the past five weeks in going 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They only lost by 14 at Ole Miss, by 14 to Arkansas, by 6 (OT) at Mississippi State, beat Texas A&M by 3 at home and crushed Western Kentucky by 24 last week.
Auburn has rushed for an average of 252.4 yards per game in its last five games. These players have really bought in to Williams wanting to run the football, which can be expected from a former running back. Running the ball also shortens games and makes it easier for them to be competitive, and that will work in their favor in trying to cover this massive 22-point spread this week.
Alabama isn't as good against the run as it has been in the past. The Crimson Tide have allowed at least 182 rushing yards in four of their last seven games. So I have no doubt Auburn will have enough success on the ground to be able to move the ball and score points, while also keeping Young and this Alabama offense off the field for long stretches.
Alabama is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall. The Crimson Tide are 0-5 ATS in their last five games in November. This is too big of a spread for an Alabama team that is lacking motivation as they are used to being in contention for the four-team playoff. They don't have much to play for but pride, and they aren't used to playing for just pride. It has shown the past two weeks and will show again this week. Auburn is the more prideful team and worth a bet because of it. Roll with Auburn Saturday.
|11-26-22||Hawaii +15.5 v. San Jose State||Top||14-27||Win||100||109 h 54 m||Show|
20* Mountain West GAME OF THE WEEK on Hawaii +15.5
First-year head coach Timmy Chang has quietly done a great job of improving the Rainbow Warriors as the season has gone on. That's evident by the fact that Hawaii is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall. In those seven games, they have just one loss by more than 7 points, which was to Fresno State which may be the best team in the Mountain West. The Rainbow Warriors even upset UNLV 31-25 at home as 11-point dogs last week.
San Jose State is not one of the best teams in the Mountain West. The Spartans are really lacking motivation here down the stretch and it's showing. They clinched a bowl berth after a 6-2 start and have been playing terrible for weeks. They are 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with their two wins coming over Nevada by 7 as 24.5-point home favorites and Colorado State by 12 as 24-point home favorites. If those two teams can stay within 12 points of San Jose State on the road, Hawaii certainly can too.
This San Jose State defense has total fallen apart. They allowed 28 points and 303 yards to Nevada, 16 points and 448 yards to Colorado State, 43 points and 445 yards to San Diego State and 35 points and 430 yards to Utah State in their last four games. Hawaii has averaged 32.5 points per game its past two games and will score enough points to stay within this number against an unmotivated SJSU squad.
Plays against home teams (San Jose State) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more total points in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Each of the last five meetings in this head-to-head series have been decided by 11 points or fewer.
San Jose State is 9-24 ATS in its last 33 games following two consecutive road losses. The Spartans are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Rainbow Warriors are 8-1 ATS in their last nine conference games. Bet Hawaii Saturday.
|11-26-22||UTEP +18 v. UTSA||Top||31-34||Win||100||109 h 54 m||Show|
20* C-USA GAME OF THE WEEK on UTEP +18
The UTSA Roadrunners punched their ticket into the Conference USA Championship Game for second consecutive season with a 41-7 beat down of Rice last week. That was their second consecutive blowout win against overmatched competition. It's now time to 'sell high' on the Roadrunners this week.
They won't be motivated at all to bury UTEP this week. They will be looking ahead to the Conference USA Championship and trying to keep everyone healthy. Expect their game plan to be very vanilla. They'd be more than happy to just get out of here with a win. They aren't going to be trying to run up the score.
We saw what happened last year with UTSA already clinching a spot in the title game in the final week. They went on the road and lost outright 23-45 at North Texas as 10-point favorites. It's also worth noting the Roadrunners have faced three straight backup quarterbacks and may be facing a 4th in a row this week, so their numbers are misleading.
UTEP sits at 5-6 and in need of a win to make a bowl game. That makes it very easy to figure out which one of these teams will be more motivated. I also like the fact that UTEP is the fresher team coming off a 40-6 victory over Florida International last week after having a bye the previous week. UTSA will be playing for a 4th consecutive week.
UTEP head coach Dimel has kept quiet about who his starting quarterback will be this week. Gavin Hardison sat last week with an injury, and backup Calvin Brownholtz balled out. He led this UTEP offense to 525 yards while completing 12 of 18 passes for 190 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 31 yards and score. He is a big, physical QB and I expect the Miners to win the battle at the line is scrimmage. It's a competitive advantage for them to not name a starter, and I think either can get the job done here and keep this game close.
There's not as much difference between these teams as this line would indicate even when you don't factor in motivation. UTEP is outgaining teams by 36 yards per game while UTSA is outgaining its opponents by 82 yards per game on the season. That's only a 46-yard edge in UTSA's favor.
UTSA is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games following a conference win by 10 points or more. Dimel is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. poor passing defenses allowing 250 or more passing yards per game as the coach of UTEP. UTSA allows 400 yards per game including 260 passing, so the back door is going to be open if need be, but I don't think we are are going to need it. The road team is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. Bet UTEP Saturday.
|11-26-22||Kent State v. Buffalo -4||30-27||Loss||-110||106 h 23 m||Show|
15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Buffalo -4
I love the spot for Buffalo this week. They are trying to become bowl eligible with a win over Kent State. They had their game against Akron cancelled last week due to weather and don't want to have to make that game up to become bowl eligible. They want to handle their business here Saturday.
The Bulls come in rested and ready to go having last played on November 9th. It's safe to say we are going to get an 'A' effort from the Bulls here. They have been great at home this season going 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS with wins by 4 over Miami Ohio and by 7 over Toledo, which are two of the best teams in the MAC with both bowl eligible.
Kent State just lost a 24-31 heartbreaker to Eastern Michigan last week to fall to 4-7 this season, eliminating them from bowl contention. They led 17-7 at halftime, but star QB Collin Schlee was injured right before halftime and it was all downhill from there without him. Backup Kargman went 7-of-19 for 91 yards in his absence, and he isn't the dual-threat that Schlee is.
Schlee is very much questionable for this game and I don't expect him to play. He has thrown for 2,095 yards with a 13-to-5 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 448 yards and four scorers. Backup Kargman is only completing 46.2% of his passes and has -19 rushing yards. Kent State won't even be competitive without Schlee, but they might not be competitive either way considering their bowl hopes were crushed last week and they have nothing to play for.
Kent State is 1-7 ATS in games played on turf this season. The Golden Flashes are 1-7 ATS in their last eight conference games. The Bulls are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 home games. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. I'll gladly back the rested home team with a lot more to play for this week in the Bulls. Bet Buffalo Saturday.
|11-25-22||Nebraska +11 v. Iowa||Top||24-17||Win||100||85 h 26 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Nebraska +11
A quick look at the head-to-head history between Nebraska and Iowa shows that we have to take the Cornhuskers catching double-digits. Iowa has won four straight meetings with Nebraska all by 7 points or fewer. The stats have been pretty even in every meeting, and the Hawkeyes have just had the breaks go their way late in games.
Nebraska won't be going to a bowl game, so this is their 'National Championship' Game. They would love nothing more than to beat Iowa and knock them out of the Big Ten championship game. It's a miracle the Hawkeyes even have a shot considering their numbers this season. Kirk Ferentz has worked miracles to get this team to 7-4.
Indeed, the Hawkeyes rank 130th in the country in total offense at 253.5 yards per game. They are getting outgained by 20 yards per game on the season. And how the Hawkeye s just lost their biggest weapon in TE Sam LaPorta to an injury against Minnesota last week and he will not play this week. LaPorta has 53 receptions for 600 yards this season and is the one players you have to worry about on their offense. His loss cannot be overstated here.
Nebraska continues to battle week in and week out under interim head coach Mickey Joseph. The Huskers gave Wisconsin all they wanted last week in a 15-14 home loss. They also only lost by 7 to Minnesota and by 6 to Purdue, which are three of the best teams in the Big Ten West this season. If they can stay within one score of those three teams, they can certainly stay within 11 points of Iowa without LaPorta.
Plays against any team (Iowa) - a poor offensive team (16-21 PPG) against a poor defensive team (28-34 PPG), after playing a game where 29 or fewer total points were scored are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
Kirk Ferentz is 4-14 ATS as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points as the coach of Iowa, and 22-38 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. I don't think Iowa's offense can score enough to cover this big of a number. They are going to need scores from their defense and/or special teams to get there, and it's just tough to bank on that. Ferentz is very conservative and will make some decisions in this one that help the Huskers stay in this game as well. Bet Nebraska Friday.
|11-25-22||Toledo v. Western Michigan +8||14-20||Win||100||81 h 26 m||Show|
15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Western Michigan +8
Western Michigan continues to battle. They have played four straight games decided by 6 points or fewer. They won 16-10 at Miami Ohio four games ago, lost 13-9 at Bowling Green three games ago and lost 24-21 to Northern Illinois two games ago. They easily could have packed it in after that NIU loss as it dropped them to 3-7 and out of bowl contention.
Instead, the Broncos pulled the 12-10 upset at Central Michigan as 9.5-point dogs and outgained them by 104 yards. And now they'll be looking forward to trying to upset Toledo at home on Senior Day Friday. I expect an 'A' effort from the Broncos knowing this is their final game of the season.
The 'A' effort will not be there for Toledo. They clinched the MAC West title two weeks ago with a 28-21 win over Ball State. They laid an egg last week with a 35-42 loss to Bowling Green. And now they still have nothing to play for this week against Western Michigan as they are already in the MAC title game.
The Rockets rested stud QB DaQuan Finn in that loss to Bowling Green as he has been battling an injury here late in the season. They would be wise to rest him again. He is completing 59.4% of his passes for 1,943 yards with a 21-to-10 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 531 yards and eight scores. There's a big downgrade from Finn to Gleason at QB for the Rockets, and I just don't trust this team with questionable motivation.
The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. Toledo is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games. The Broncos are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. The underdog is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take Western Michigan Friday.
|11-25-22||Utah State +17 v. Boise State||23-42||Loss||-110||81 h 26 m||Show|
15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah State +17
The Utah State Aggies continue to battle. They are 5-1 SU in their last six games overall to get to a bowl game. That includes an upset win over Air Force as 11.5-point dogs that started this run. Now they will be very much looking forward to the opportunity to try and take down Mountain West title favorite, Boise State.
I question Boise State's motivation this week. They just pulled off a narrow 20-17 victory at Wyoming last week that had a trip to the Mountain West Championship Game on the line. With their tickets already punched into the title game, I don't expect an 'A' effort from the Broncos in this one. That's going to make it difficult for them to cover this 17-point spread against the Aggies.
We've seen Boise State be in hard-fought affairs in their three games against bowl teams recently. They only beat Air Force by 5 and Wyoming by 3 while also losing to BYU by 3. Utah State is at least on Wyoming's level. They can stay within 17 points of the Broncos whether or not they were motivated this week.
Utah State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after having won four or five of its last six games coming in. The Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Utah State is 22-8-1 ATS in its last 31 Friday games. The Broncos are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games following a win. The road team is 9-4-2 ATS in the last 15 meetings. It's time to 'sell high' on Boise State this week. Roll with Utah State Friday.
|11-24-22||Mississippi State +3.5 v. Ole Miss||24-22||Win||100||91 h 9 m||Show|
15* Mississippi State/Ole Miss Egg Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Mississippi State +3.5
The Ole Miss Rebels suffered their 'dream crusher' loss two weeks ago with a 24-30 home loss to Alabama in which they came up short in the red zone in the closing seconds. They swiftly got blasted 27-42 at Arkansas last week in a game that was a 42-6 game entering the 4th quarter, so even that loss was misleading.
Now there are rumors about Lane Kiffin possibly going to Auburn. He may have one foot out the door here. The Rebels had their chances of winning the SEC West and making the four-team playoff crushed with that loss to Alabama. They didn't get back up off the mat last week, and I don't expect them to get back up off the mat this week, either.
You know Mississippi State wants to win this game. Mike Leach hasn't beaten Ole Miss yet. The Bulldogs have a had a couple tough-luck losses under Leach. They lost by 7 while racking up 479 total yards including 440 passing two years ago. Last year they lost by 10 despite outgaining the Rebels 420 to 388 and throwing for 336 yards. It's clear Kiffin hasn't bene able to figure out how to stop this Mississippi State passing attack.
The key to beating Ole Miss is stopping their rushing attack. Mississippi State has the horses up front to do that. I also like the fact that the Bulldogs had an easy 56-7 win over East Tennessee State on Saturday, so they should be the fresher team coming into this Egg Bowl on a short week. They have the rest and motivation advantage, and I think these are pretty even teams overall, so getting +3.5 is a great value.
The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. The Rebels are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Leach is 33-14 ATS vs. good rushing teams that average 200 or more rushing yards per game as a head coach. Roll with Mississippi State Thursday.
|11-24-22||Giants v. Cowboys -8||20-28||Push||0||90 h 32 m||Show|
15* Giants/Cowboys NFC East ANNIHILATOR on Dallas -8
The New York Giants are finally starting to get exposed for the frauds they are. After a shocking 7-1 start to the season where all the breaks went their way late in games, they have gone 1-2 since with a 14-point loss at Seattle and a 13-point home loss to Detroit. Their lone win came at home 24-16 over the worst team in the NFL in the Houston Texans. They were actually outgained by 20 yards by the Texans, too.
Last week's loss to the Lions was more costly than just one loss. They had six players leave the game due to injury, including top WR Wan'Dale Robinson. Both starting CB's in Adoree Jackson and Fabian Moreu, S Jason Pinnock, C Jon Feliciano and RT Tyre Phillips also left Sunday's game with injuries.
Robinson was having a career game prior to the injury with nine receptions for 100 yards. Darius Slayton entered Sunday as the only receiver with more than 200 receiving yards. Kenny Golloday doubled his catch total this season with a pair of receptions. The secondary is a major concern moving forward. Starting S Xavier McKinney is already on injured reserve because of a hand injury suffered over the bye week. As of Tuesday, S Belton, T Thomas, G Lemieux, C Feliciano, CB Moreau, S Pinnock and CB Jackson are all questionable. Robinson has joined McKinney on IR.
Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys come in healthy and rested following a 40-3 beat down of the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday that allowed them to rest starters in the 4th quarter. They racked up 458 total yards and held the Vikings to just 183 total yards, outgaining them by 275 yards. The win really flash the potential of the Cowboys, which is clearly that of a Super Bowl contender.
Dallas ranks 7th in scoring offense at 25.1 points per game. Those numbers would be even better if Dak Prescott was healthy the entire season. He has led the Cowboys to 35.3 points per game in his four starts since returning from injury. This Dallas defense has been elite all season. They rank 1st in scoring defense at 16.7 points per game, 8th in total defense at 310.6 yards per game and 5th allowing just 4.8 yards per play.
The Giants are averaging 5.1 yards per pay on offense and allowing 5.8 per play on defense, getting outgained by 0.7 yards per play. That's why they are frauds and shouldn't be 7-3. One of those losses came at home to the Cowboys 23-16 with Cooper Rush at quarterback. So the Cowboys should have no problem winning by 10-plus at home this time around, especially since they are healthy with Dak back in the rematch, plus the Giants are missing a ton of key players that they had in the first meeting.
The Cowboys own the Giants going 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Dallas is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play. The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. NFC East opponents, and 22-8 ATS in their last 30 division games. Dallas is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games overall. Take the Cowboys Thursday.
|11-24-22||Bills v. Lions OVER 52.5||Top||28-25||Win||100||85 h 28 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bills/Lions OVER 52.5
I cashed in the OVER between the Buffalo Bills and Cleveland Browns in Detroit on Sunday. I'm back on the OVER between the Buffalo Bills and the Detroit Lions at Ford Field again Thursday. These are two dead nuts OVER teams right now that are playing great offense and terrible defense.
The Bills rank 1st in scoring offense at 28.1 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 417.4 yards per game and 3rd at 6.4 yards per play. Detroit ranks 8th in scoring offense at 25.0 points per game, 6th in total offense at 366.6 yards per game and 6th at 5.9 yards per play.
It's well known the Lions have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 28.2 points per game, dead last (32nd) in total defense at 415.9 yards per game and dead last at 6.4 yards per play. They just gave up over 400 yards to the lowly Giants last week and have now allowed at least 400 yards in four consecutive games. They just lost their top CB in Okudah last week and could be without CB LUcas, DE Paschal and DL Harris.
The Bills started the season with one of the best defenses in the NFL, but injuries have really caught up with them on that side of the football. After allowing 33 points and 481 total yards to the Vikings two weeks ago, they gave up 23 points and 386 total yards to the Browns last week. The Lions will have success moving the football on this banged-up Bills defense that is without S Hyde and could be without DE Epenesa, LB Edmunds and CB White this week. This is the healthiest this Detroit offense has been in a long time and is a big part of their three-game winning streak.
The OVER is 9-3 in Lions last 12 games overall. The OVER is 20-8 in Lions last 28 home games. The OVER is 6-0 in Lions last six games following a win. The OVER is 8-0 in Bills last eight road games vs. good passing teams completing 61% of their passes or better in the second half of the season. The OVER is 10-1 in Bills last 11 road games vs. poor rushing defenses that allow at least 4.5 yards per carry. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
|11-22-22||Ball State v. Miami-OH -2.5||Top||17-18||Loss||-118||20 h 46 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Ohio -2.5
Miami and Ball State both sit at 5-6 this season with a chance to go to a bowl game with a win Tuesday night. I'll gladly side with the Miami Redhawks, who are the better team and are at home here, so this line should be above Miami -3.
The Miami Redhawks kept their bowl hopes alive with a 29-23 win at Northern Illinois last week and have now won two of their last three games. Ball State has lost two consecutive games and couldn't even beat Ohio last week after the Bobcats lost their starting QB in the first half. They lost 32-18 and still gave up 429 yards even after Ohio lost the best QB in the back in Rourke. The Cardinals are starting to really feel the pressure of trying to make a bowl game and aren't handling well, while the Redhawks are handling it well with a veteran head coach in Chuck Martin who has been here before.
This is a great matchup for Miami Ohio. Both teams want to run the football. Ball State averages 152 rushing yards per game but only 5.8 yards per pass attempt. Miami Ohio averages 146 rushing yards per game and 6.7 yards per attempt. I think these offenses are pretty evenly matched as Ball State averages 5.2 yards per play while Miami averages 5.1 per play.
The difference is defense. Miami Ohio has by far the best unit on the field in its defense. The Redhawks only allow 23.0 points per game while the Cardinals allow 27.7 points per game. Miami allows 369 yards per game while Ball State allows 406 yards per game. But the biggest key is these teams' ability to stop the run. Miami only allows 124 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry, while Ball State allows 190 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry. Miami is going to win the battle at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.
Miami owns Ball State, going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings. The Redhawks are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 home games. Ball State is 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Miami. Bet Miami Ohio Tuesday.