25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers +1.5 

Defense and running game usually wins out in the Super Bowl.  And I’ll gladly side with the better defense and running game against the flashy, high-powered offense of the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl 54.

The 49ers are simply the more complete team.  The 49ers and Ravens were the only teams to rank in the Top 5 in total offense and total defense this season.  The 49ers were 4th in total offense at 381.1 yards per game and 2nd in total defense at 281.8 yards per game in the regular season.  They outgained their opponents by 100 yards per game on the season, which is the sign of a dominant team.  And the 49ers are close to being 18-0 as their three losses all came on the final play of the game.

The 49ers were dominant in the first half of the season defensively before injuries took their toll.  But they got back DE Dee Ford, LB Kwon Alexander and S Jacquisky Tartt late in the season and have had all three for the playoffs.  And their defense has been absolutely dominant when they’ve had these three in the lineup. 

The 49ers beat the Vikings 27-10 and held them to just 147 total yards and 7 first downs in the Divisional Round.  Then they jumped out to a 27-0 lead on the Packers by halftime, so the stats that Green Bay racked up in garbage time in the 2nd half with the game already decided can be greatly discounted.  The 49ers have given up just 252.5 yards per game in the playoffs and that even includes those garbage time yards for the Packers. 

Kansas City has played two poor defenses in the playoffs in the Texans and Titans to help boost their offensive numbers.  They scored 51 on the Texans and 35 on the Titans.  But now this is a big step up in class here against the best defense they will have faced this season, and certainly the best pass rush that can negate what Mahomes can do. 

The Chiefs played four solid defenses in a row prior to the playoffs.  The Chargers held them to 346 total yards, while the Bears held them to 26 points and 350 total yards, the Broncos held them to 23 points and the Patriots held them to 23 points.  I think it’s asking a lot for the Chiefs to top 24 points in this one against this elite 49ers defense. 

While the Chiefs’ offense gets all the headlines, the 49ers have actually been the better offense during the regular season.  They rank 2nd in the league in scoring offense at 29.9 points per game, only behind the Ravens.  Kyle Shanahan is the best play-caller in the NFL, and he knows how to take advantage of the opposing team’s weaknesses defensively. 

That’s exactly what he did against the Vikings and Packers.  The 49ers rushed for 186 yards on the Vikings and 285 yards on the Packers.  They didn’t need Jimmy G to do much, though he has shown he can when called upon considering he threw for 354 yards on the Saints in a 48-46 win late in the season. 

The 49ers ranked 2nd in the NFL in rushing offense during the regular season at 144.1 yards per game, and the matchup with Kansas City’s run D is hugely in their favor.  The Chiefs rank 26th against the run, giving up 128.2 yards per game this season.  The Chiefs are even worse at 28th in allowing 4.9 yards per carry.  The Ravens rushed for 203 yards on the Chiefs, which is the best rushing offense they have faced outside San Francisco. 

So not only will the 49ers be able to run at will against the Chiefs, their defensive strength also matches up perfectly with Kansas City’s offensive strength.  The 49ers rank 1st in the NFL against the pass, giving up just 169.2 yards per game.  They are also 1st in yards per attempt allowed at 5.9 per attempt.  Their secondary is tremendous, but a big part of that is their pass rush up front with the best front 4 in the NFL in Bosa, Ford, Thomas & Armstead. 

The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.  San Francisco is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the 49ers in Super Bowl 54.

Top 10 Favorite Prop Bets for Super Bowl 54

#10 - Jimmy G UNDER 4.5 Rushing Yards (+100) 

Jimmy G has 62 rushing yards on 46 attempts this season.  He’s only averaging 3.9 rushing yards per game.  And I believe there’s a good chance he’ll be kneeling on the ball to end the game. 

#9 - Will Raheem Mostert score a TD (Yes -130) 

Mostert has scored a touchdown in seven of his last eight games overall.  Tevin Coleman dislocated his shoulder in the NFC Championship Game and is very questionable for the Super Bowl.  Coleman gets a lot of goal line touches, which will now go to Mostert. 

#8 - Dee Ford OVER 0.5 Sacks (-110) 

Ford has at least one sack in seven of his 10 games played this season.  He should be extra motivated to get after his former team and former QB in Mahomes. 

#7 - Jimmy G UNDER 29.5 Pass Attempts (-150) 

Jimmy G averages 27.9 pass attempts per game in his 18 games played this season.  He has averaged just 13.5 attempts in two playoff games.  Kyle Shanahan will continue trying to protect him as much as possible.  I expect the 49ers to continue their run-heavy game plan because the Chiefs are terrible against the run. 

#6 - 49ers LB Dre Greenlaw UNDER 5.5 Tackles (-110) 

Greenlaw was a beast when Kwon Alexander wasn’t on the field this season. He even had the game-saving tackle at the goal line against the Seahawks in Week 17 that earned the 49ers the No. 1 seed.  That play might be the biggest reason the 49ers made the Super Bowl.  But in Weeks 1-9 when Alexander was on the field with him, Greenlaw didn’t once record more than 4 tackles.  Alexander didn’t return until the playoffs, and Greenlaw has averaged 5 tackles per game in two playoff games 

#5 - Patrick Mahomes Longest Rush UNDER 14.5 Yards (-125) 

I’ve got some Mahomes rushing stats coming up that I’ll save for a future prop bet.  But basically Mahomes’ rushing props are inflated due to a big outburst with 53 rushing yards including a crazy 27-yard TD run against the Titans last game.  UNDER 14.5 yards for his longest carry here, but there’s another prop I like more that I’ll get to. (Check #2) 

#4 - Will Jimmy G Complete his First Pass (Yes, -220) 

We have to lay a little juice here but it’s worth it.  Kyle Shanahan always likes to get Jimmy G an easy completion to start the game.  He has made 26 starts under Shanahan.  He has 21 completions on his first 26 attempts in those 26 games.  That’s an 81% completion percentage.  Basically four out of every five games he completes his first pass, so that justifies laying the -220. 

#3 - Patrick Mahomes UNDER 305.5 Passing Yards (+100) 

Again, I believe Mahomes props in general to be inflated because he is the biggest star in this game.  And the numbers bear it out, too.  Mahomes has thrown for fewer than 300 yards in six of his last eight games.  He is averaging just 252.2 PYPG in his last eight games.  And the 49ers have the #1 ranked pass defense in the NFL, giving up just 169.2 passing yards per game. 

#2 - Patrick Mahomes UNDER 32.5 Rushing Yards (+100) 

As stated before, Mahomes rushing props inflated due to his last game against TItans.  The Titans and Texans both play a lot of man-to-man defense, so Mahomes was able to use his legs more.  The 49ers play almost exclusively zone defense.  That means defenders have their eyes in the backfield and can come up and stop the run a lot easier than teams who are in man-to-man with their back turned to the QB.  SF did allow the 3rd-most QB rushing yards this season.  But they also faced Russell Wilson twice, Kyler Murray twice & Lamar Jackson.  Mahomes has 35 career games under his belt.  He has only topped 28 rushing yards 7 times in those 35 games.  That’s a 20% success rate if the over/under were only 28.5 yards.  But it’s 32.5, and I believe there’s a ton of value with the UNDER. 

#1 - 49ers 1st Quarter +0.5 (-155) 

This prop means that if the 49ers are tied or winning at the end of the first quarter, you win your bet.  There’s obviously a very good chance it’s tied, so laying only -155 I think is worth the price.  The 49ers were 4th in the NFL with a +2.6 PPG differential in the 1st quarter this season, so they are fast starters.  The Chiefs have actually been outscored in the 1st quarter on the season, so they are not fast starters.  And we’ve seen that in the playoffs.  They trailed the Texans 24-0 and the Titans 17-7 before rallying in both games. 

20* Packers/49ers NFC No-Brainer on San Francisco -7 

I’ve been riding the San Francisco 49ers all season after picking up on the fact that they are the best team in the NFL.  No team has put up better numbers on both sides of the ball than they have, and the numbers haven’t lied.  They are 14-3 this season with all three losses coming on the final play of the game.  That’s how close they are to being 17-0. 

The reason I say the 49ers are the best team in the NFL is because they are the only team that is Top 5 in total offense and Top 5 in total defense.  The 49ers were 4th in the regular season in total offense at 381.1 yards per game while also scoring 29.9 points per game, which ranked 2nd in the NFL.  The 49ers were 2nd in the NFL in total defense during the regular season, giving up 281.8 yards per game and only 19.4 points per game. 

The 49ers have been an immovable object when Nick Bosa, Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander have been on the field at the same time defensively.  Opposing quarterbacks had a QBR of 3 during the regular season in this situation.  And the 49ers returned Ford, Alexander and also Jaquisky Tartt last week from injuries.  That trio played a big role in limiting the Vikings to just 10 points, 7 first downs and 147 total yards.  They are back to being the best defense in the NFL when healthy now, which is a scary proposition for the Packers. 

After all, the 49ers already showed what they could do against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers when their defense was healthy in a 37-8 home win earlier this season.  They held the Packers to just 8 points and 198 total yards.  They held Rodgers to just 3.2 yards per attempt passing as he went 20-of-33 for 104 yards.  No team has shut down Rodgers like the 49ers did in that game. 

Both teams are 14-3, but there’s a huge difference between them statistically.  The 49ers outgained their opponents by nearly 100 yards per game during the regular season.  The Packers were 18th in total offense at 345.5 yards per game and 18th in total defense at 352.6 yards per game.  They were actually outgained by 7.1 yards per game during the regular season, which is the sign of a below .500 team rather than one that is 14-3.  They were simply fortunate in close games all season as they went a ridiculous 9-1 in one-score games.  Their luck runs out this week as this game won’t be close. 

I expect the 49ers to shut down the Packers, and I also expect Jimmy G and the 49ers rushing attack to do whatever they want against this Packers' defense.  The Packers are in trouble defensively because they can’t stop the run.  They ranked 24th in the NFL in giving up 4.7 rushing yards per carry in the regular season.  The 49ers had the 2nd-best rushing attack in the league at 144.1 yards per game.  Green Bay has also allowed touchdowns in the red zone on 83% of opponents’ opportunities the last three weeks.  Seattle scored all three times it got into the red zone last week. 

The 49ers are 14-3 but nine of those wins have come by 9 points or more, so they have hard no problem getting margin this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 13.2 points per game at home this year.  The Packers have been outgained by 34.1 yards per game on the road this season and are averaging just 21.4 points and 305.1 yards per game on the highway.  They won’t be able to keep up with the 49ers, who are better across the board on both sides of the football. 

Plays against road underdogs or PK (Green Bay) - a hot team having won eight or more of their last 10 games are 40-17 (70.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The 49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The fraudulent Packers will be exposed by the best team in the NFL for a second time this season.  Bet the 49ers Sunday. 

Note: I also recommend doing a teaser to get both the 49ers and Chiefs down to -1 or better.  A 6.5-point teaser at -130 odds should do the trick.  And also make this teaser a bigger bet than your individual bets on these two games.  It's one of my favorite teasers of the entire season!

15* Titans/Chiefs AFC ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -7 

I’ve been riding the Tennessee Titans since Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback.  They’ve made me a lot of money down the stretch, including in each of their first two playoff games with upset wins over the Patriots and Ravens.  It pains me to go against them now, but I have to do it because I see this game playing out totally differently.  The Chiefs are going to roll in the AFC Championship. 

The Chiefs have the best offense in the NFL when healthy and it’s not really even close.  That showed last week when they erased a 24-0 deficit in one half and took a 28-24 lead by halftime against the Texans.  They went on to win 51-31 as double-digit favorites.  Now they are only laying 7 points here to Tennessee compared to the 10 they were laying against Houston.  So I think there’s some value here. 

Tennessee because the first team in NFL history to get outgained by 230-plus yards and win a playoff game last week.  They gave up 530 yards to the Ravens and only gained 300 last week, yet still managed to win 28-12.  That is a complete fluke.  Baltimore lsat the turnover battle 3-0 and was stopped on 4th down four times.  That’s essentially seven turnovers.  It’s one of the most misleading finals in the history of the NFL. 

Speaking of misleading, the Titans also beat the Chiefs 35-32 at home in their first meeting this season despite not having any business winning that game either.  The Chiefs had a 530 to 371 yard edge and a 28-19 edge in first downs in that game.  And it was the first game back for Patrick Mahomes from injury.  If the Chiefs approach anywhere near 530 yards again, they are going to win in a blowout. 

Derrick Henry is a beast and certainly a concern.  But I have a good feeling the Chiefs are going to be leading the whole way in this game and make Henry a non-factor.  This game is going to come down to whether or not Ryan Tannehill can match Mahomes score for score.  And while I’ve praised Tannehill a lot this season and think he’s underrated, not even he can match Mahomes score for score.  Deshaun Watson couldn’t do it last week, and Tannehill won’t be able to do it this week. 

The Chiefs are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall, winning by an average of 17 points per game and covering by an average of 10 points per game.  The tough spot for the Titans won’t allow them to hang around, either.  They will be playing their 4th straight road game.  The last five teams to be playing their 4th straight road game in the NFL have gone 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS.  And they just played two physical wars against the Patriots and Ravens the last two weeks, which will have taken a lot out of them. 

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Tennessee) - off two consecutive road wins, winning between 60% & 75% of their games on the season are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS since 1983.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Kansas City) - after playing a home game against an opponent that’s off a two-game road trip are 25-9 (73.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Titans are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games with a total of 49.5 or higher.  Take the Chiefs Sunday.

Note: I also recommend doing a teaser to get both the 49ers and Chiefs down to -1 or better.  A 6.5-point teaser at -130 odds should do the trick.  And also make this teaser a bigger bet than your individual bets on these two games.  It's one of my favorite teasers of the entire season!

20* Seahawks/Packers NFC No-Brainer on Green Bay -4 

The Seahawks improved to 11-2 in one score games with their fortunate 17-9 win over the Eagles last week.  They knocked out Carson Wentz in the first quarter and got the luxury of facing 40-year-old Josh McCown the rest of the way.  And they still had to hang on for dear life. 

The Seahawks’ luck runs out this week.  They have played in two straight physical wars against the 49ers and Eagles and it will take its toll on them this week.  Meanwhile, the Packers are rested and ready to go after earning a first-round bye. 

Injuries are really taking their toll on the Seahawks now.  They could be without three starting offensive linemen.  They are likely to be without both tackle Duane Brown and guard Mike Iupati.  And tackle George Fant suffered a groin injury that has him questionable.  Both backup RB’s Lynch and Homer averaged just 1.0 yards per carry against the Eagles last week as the offense managed just 17 points. 

Russell Wilson is going to be running for his life against one of the best tandem of pass rushers in the NFL in the Smith Brothers.  And this is a Packers defense that has really improved down the stretch, giving up 20 points or fewer in five straight games and an average of just 14.2 points per game during this stretch.  Rodgers finally has a defense to support him, which is a dangerous combination. 

This is a very poor Seattle defense that ranked 26th in total defense in allowing 381.6 yards per game during the regular season and 29th in yards per play (6.0) allowed.  The injuries are mounting on defense too with CB Flowers, DT Jefferson, LB Kendricks, DE Ansah and DE Clowney all on the injury report.  Aaron Rodgers is going to have his way with this defense. 

Speaking of Rodgers, this will be the eighth time he has faced Russell Wilson.  The home team is 7-0 SU and winning by 8 points per game in the seven previous matchups between Rodgers and Wilson.  And it’s going to be about 20 degrees on Sunday after it snows Friday and Saturday in Green Bay.  Lambeau Field is arguably the best home-field advantage in the NFL and easily worth 4 points in my opinion.  Factor in the rest advantage for Green Bay and all the injuries for the fraudulent Seahawks, and it’s easy to see why I like the Packers only laying 4 points. 

The Packers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games off a close road win by 3 points or less.  Green Bay is 11-2 ATS off one or more consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons.  The Packers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games off five or more consecutive wins.  The Packers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games off an ATS loss.  Green Bay is 7-1 ATS in its last eight vs. a team with a winning record.  The Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Seahawks.  Roll with the Packers Sunday. 

15* Titans/Ravens AFC ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee +10 

The Tennessee Titans have made me a lot of money in the second half of the season.  A big reason why is because they are a completely different team since Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback.  Their season-long stats lie, and oddsmakers are setting their numbers more based on their season-long stats than the team they are with Tannehill. 

Tannehill completed 70.3% of his passes for 2,742 yards with a 22-to-6 TD/INT ratio and a whopping 9 yards per completion in the regular season.  Their threat of a downfield passing attack has opened things up greatly for Derrick Henry.  The Titans have rushed for at least 149 yards in eight straight games while averaging a whopping 189.6 rushing yards per game during this eight-game stretch. 

The Titans put up 33.4 points per game over their final seven games.  Because they can run the ball, they were 1st in the NFL in red zone scoring efficiency this season.  And while the Ravens have been decent against the run, they do give up 4.4 yards per carry.  Plus the Ravens faced the 5th-easiest schedule of opposing quarterbacks this season. 

Stopping Baltimore’s top-ranked rushing attack is key to stopping them.  The Titans are 12th in the NFL against the run in yards per game allowed, but they are an even better 7th in yards per carry (4.0) allowed.  They have probably the 2nd-fasted front 7 of any team in the NFL behind the 49ers, who held the Ravens to 20 points earlier this season.  Having speed in the front 7 is the key to being able to defend Lamar Jackson. 

I like that the Titans are battle-tested.  They needed to win in Week 17 to make the playoffs and handled their business in a 35-14 win at Tennessee.  And last week they went on the road and beat New England 20-13 as 4.5-point dogs.  They are in full-blown playoff mode and gaining confidence with each win. 

The Ravens haven’t played a meaningful game since Week 16.  And we saw them struggle in the playoffs last year against the Chargers.  They’ve played a bunch of cupcakes down the stretch and the last good teams they played were the Bills and 49ers, and they only won those games by 7 and 3 points, respectively.  Tennessee has enough film on Jackson and company now to be able to slow them down. 

Since both teams like to run the ball so much, this game will be slowed to a snail’s pace.  That favors the double-digit underdog here.  I think the Titans will continue to have success with Henry on the ground and that will help shorten this game.  The Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.  The Ravens are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as a home favorite.  Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last five playoff home games.  Take the Titans Saturday. 

25* NFL Divisional Round GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers -6.5 

The 49ers needed the bye week as much as anyone.  They were among the first teams to have a bye week this year as theirs came clear back in Week 4.  This was a tired, banged up team down the stretch and they showed a lot of heart in getting that all-important No. 1 seed. 

It’s going to pay off this week as the 49ers are as healthy as they have been in months.  They are expected to get back some key players on defense.  LB Kwon Alexander, S Jaquiski Tartt and DE Dee Ford are all back now after missing Week 17.  When Alexander, Ford and Nick Bosa have been on the field at the same time this season, opposing quarterbacks have a QBR of 3, which is unheard of. 

Conversely, the spot couldn’t be worse for the Minnesota Vikings.  They are coming off their huge upset win over the Saints in overtime on Sunday.  Now they have to come back and play the early game Saturday on a short week.  Not to mention, they have to travel from New Orleans back to Minnesota and then all the way out to the West Coast to Santa Clara. 

Injuries are taking their toll on the Vikings, too.  Both Stephon Diggs (Illness) and Adam Thielen (ankle) didn’t practice on Tuesday and Wednesday.  With all this travel, the Vikings aren’t going to get much practice time at all as it is.  And they could be without DT Linval Joseph (knee) who got banged up against the Saints.  They are without their top corner in Mackensie Alexander and starting safety Jayron Kearse (toe) is questionable.  And after a huge workload returning from injury last week, RB Dalvin Cook won’t be 100% on this short week. 

The 49ers weren’t as good defensively down the stretch due to those injuries, but they should get back to being the top defense in the league now.  They ranked 2nd in total defense during the regular season giving up just 281.8 yards per game.  The 49ers were dominant offensively down the stretch as Jimmy G had a 109.3 QBR since they traded for Emmanuel Sanders.  They finished 4th in total offense averaging 381.1 yards per game.  They were the only team in the NFL to finish Top 5 in offense and defense this season and I strongly believe they are the best team left in the playoffs now that they are a lot healthier. 

Getting margin hasn’t been a problem for the 49ers as they are outscoring opponents by 10.5 points per game on the season and 12.8 points per game at home.  The Vikings are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 vs. a team with a winning record.  Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win.  It’s just too much to ask for the Vikings to go on the road two weeks in a row and beat the two best teams in the NFC in the Saints and 49ers.  They will fall flat here against a superior 49ers team in the much better spot.  Bet the 49ers Saturday. 

25* Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 

I’ve been fading the Seahawks with a lot of success here down the stretch.  I spotted that they were frauds a long time ago, and that is still my belief.  I’m going to fade them on the road here against the Philadelphia Eagles in the Wild Card round as well for many of the same reasons. 

The Seahawks are 10-2 in one-score games this season, which is unsustainable.  Russell Wilson doesn’t have the ‘clutch gene’ like everyone thinks.  He was 31-33 in one-score games coming into this season in his career.  The Seahawks have a +7 point differential for the entire season, which is closer to an 8-8 team than one that is 11-5.  They are complete frauds. 

The real Seahawks have shown over the last four weeks.  They are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost by 16 to the Rams as 1-point road dogs, only beat the hapless Panthers 30-24 as 6.5-point road favorites, were upset by the Cardinals 13-27 as 9.5-point home favorites and lost to the 49ers 21-26 at home as 3.5-point dogs.  That loss to the 49ers was devastating as it meant they’d have to go on the road in the wild card instead of hosting a game.  And they came up just inches short.  It’s tough to bounce back from a loss like that. 

The Eagles found themselves needing to win their final four games just to make the playoffs.  That’s exactly what they did despite all their injuries.  They went 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS with their final two games being the most impressive.  They beat the Cowboys 17-9 at home and gained 431 yards while allowing just 311 yards, outgaining them by 120 yards.  And last week they handled their business in a 34-17 win at the Giants with 400 total yards. 

Despite all the injuries, this offense is flowing behind some great play from Carson Wentz with four straight games of 400-plus yards of offense.  They are far from broken, and they are finding different ways to move the football and score points behind the genius of head coach Doug Pederson.  And they will get Miles Sanders back this week, and could get both Zach Ertz and Lane Johnson back. 

A big reason the Seahawks have struggled down the stretch is injuries, too.  They have injuries all over their defense at all three levels.  And their offense lost their top two running backs, which prompted them to sign Marshawn Lynch off the street.  They certainly miss Josh Gordon as well since he was suspended. 

It’s also easy to see the Seahawks are a fraudulent team when you look at their numbers.  They are just 26th in total defense, giving up 381.6 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season.  They are actually getting outgained by 7.2 yards per play on the season.  And their running game has taken a big hit here down the stretch with all these injuries to their running backs and along the offensive line. 

The Seahawks won’t be able to run on the Eagles, either.  Philadelphia ranks 3rd in the NFL in giving up just 90.1 yards per game rushing.  And the Eagles deserved to win their first meeting with the Seahawks, losing 9-17 at home despite committing five turnovers.  I have a hard time believing they are going to come anywhere close to committing five turnovers again, and thus the result will be in their favor this time around. 

The Eagles are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as an underdog.  Philadelphia is 6-0 ATS in its last six January games.  The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last five playoff games.  Philadelphia is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win.  Bet the Eagles Sunday. 

Note: My favorite bet for Sunday is an Eagles +8.5/Saints -1.5 6-Point Teaser at -120 juice. Instead of betting both these games separately, I’d recommend betting this teaser instead. Plays will get graded on the +2.5/-7.5 lines, but make sure to have your biggest bet on this teaser if you decide to play both plays individually. 

20* Vikings/Saints NFC No-Brainer on New Orleans -7.5 

The New Orleans Saints are on a mission this season to make amends for coming up just short of the Super Bowl.  Granted, the refs robbed them of any chance to go to the Super Bowl in the NFC Championship Game, but they fell short none the less.  I’ve never seen a team more motivated than this New Orleans Saints will be to start the playoffs this week. 

The Saints have been playing like Super Bowl contenders in the second half of the season. They are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with five of those six wins coming by 8 points or more.  They are outscoring their opponents by 13.6 points per game in their last seven games with their only loss coming on a last-second field goal to the 49ers. 

Drew Brees is playing some of the best football of his career.  This potent Saints offense has put up 26-plus points in seven straight games and an average of 36.3 points per game during this stretch.  They should feast on a weak Minnesota defense that is giving up 65.6% completions and 234 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.  The Vikings have injuries at cornerback that are going to make it very difficult for them to slow down Brees and company. 

I’m also concerned about this Minnesota offense.  It’s well documented how poorly Kirk Cousins has played in big games, and that has continued this season.  He lost to the Packers twice, the Chiefs and the Seahawks.  Cousins went 1-4 against playoff teams this year with his only win coming at home against the Eagles. 

A lot has been made of the Vikings getting Dalvin Cook back from injury this week, but he’s far from 100%.  And a lot has also been made of the Vikings getting Adam Thielen back recently from a hamstring injury, but he’s also a shell of his former self.  Thielen has just four receptions for 52 yards in his last four healthy games.  There’s going to be a lot of pressure on Cousins to match Brees score for score, and I just don’t think he’s capable. 

The Saints also want to avenge the ‘Minnesota Miracle’ when the Vikings scored on the final play of the game to beat them in the 2017-18 season, 29-24.  It’s another reason why I’ve never seen a team more motivated than these Saints.   

Wild card favorites of more than 7 points are 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS since 2005.  The Vikings are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last six games as a road underdog.  The Saints are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with the Saints Sunday.

Note: My favorite bet for Sunday is an Eagles +8.5/Saints -1.5 6-Point Teaser at -120 juice. Instead of betting both these games separately, I’d recommend betting this teaser instead. Plays will get graded on the +2.5/-7.5 lines, but make sure to have your biggest bet on this teaser if you decide to play both plays individually. 

15* Titans/Patriots AFC ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee +5 

It’s obvious there’s something seriously wrong with the New England Patriots in 2019-20 compared to in years’ past.  They just lost to the Miami Dolphins as 17-point home favorites with a first-round bye on the line.  That never used to happen.  And now I don’t expect them to make easy work of the Tennessee Titans, a much better team than Miami. 

It’s a Titans team I’ve been riding a lot down the stretch because they are better than they get credit for.  The Titans have gone 7-3 SU & 6-3-1 ATS in their 10 games since Ryan Tannehill took over.  Tannehill has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league, completing 70.3% of his passes for 2,742 yards with a 22-to-6 TD/INT ratio while averaging a whopping 9 yards per attempt. 

Having Tannehill as a threat passing has really opened up the running game for Derrick Henry, who led the NFL in rushing this year.  The Titans have rushed for at least 149 yards in seven straight games while averaging a whopping 188 rushing yards per game during this seven-game stretch.  The Titans are also averaging 33.4 points per game in their last seven.  This offense is a juggernaut, but the betting public is failing to realize it. 

New England has a great defense, but it has come against the worst schedule of opposing offenses in the NFL.  They have played the 30th-ranked schedule in the league overall.  And their defense was lit up for 27 points and 389 total yards by the Miami Dolphins last week.  I won’t argue that the Patriots don’t still have a solid defense, but the problem is on the other side of the ball. 

Tom Brady just hasn’t been himself and certainly doesn’t have the weapons he needs to be successful this year.  The offensive line isn’t getting the push they need either as the Patriots have rushed for fewer than 100 yards in half their games.  The Patriots are averaging just 5.2 yards per play, which ranks 23rd in the NFL.  The Titans are averaging 6.1 yards per play, which ranks 4th in the NFL. 

Tennessee is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a division rival.  The Titans made easy work of the Texans last week, while the Patriots fought tooth and nail to try and beat the Dolphins.  I think that will make the Titans the fresher team this week.  There’s value here on the road underdog.  Take the Titans Saturday. 

20* 49ers/Seahawks NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on San Francisco -2.5 

The Seattle Seahawks are frauds.  I’ve been saying it all season.  I faded them last week with an easy outright win on the Cardinals +9.5, and I’m fading them again this week for many of the same reasons.  They are the most fortunate 11-4 team I’ve ever seen. 

Indeed, the Seahawks are 11-4 despite having just a +12 point differential on the season.  They have gone 10-1 in one-score games this year.  People say it’s just Russell Wilson being clutch, but Wilson was just 31-33 in one-score games prior to 2019. 

The 49ers are 12-3 and every bit as good as their record.  They have a +164 point differential on the season, which is 152 points better than the Seahawks.  All three of their losses came on the final play of the game. 

Yes, the Seahawks beat the 49ers in their first meeting, but it comes with an asterisk.  The 49ers were without their most important player in George Kittle, who is worth more to the spread than any other non-QB in the NFL.  And Emmanuel Sanders got hurt early in that game.  Jimmy G didn’t have any weapons left.  And the Seahawks still needed a FG in overtime to beat the 49ers.  Now it’s revenge time for San Francisco. 

The 49ers are the much healthier team in the rematch.  The Seahawks have injury problems everywhere.  They are missing a handful of guys on defense, they could be without two starting offensive linemen, and will for sure be without LT Duane Brown.  They just recently lost WR Josh Gordon to suspension, taking away one of Wilson’s top targets. 

The Seahawks needed a win last week against the Cardinals to keep alive a chance at a first-round bye.  But they lost 13-27 at home as 9.5-point favorites.  They were outgained by 188 yards by the Cardinals and managed just 224 total yards themselves.  Their defense is one of the worst in the NFL, and it showed last week, especially since the Cardinals kept scoring even after Kyler Murray went down with injury.   

The Seahawks rank 26th in total defense giving up 380.5 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.  The 49ers rank 2nd in total defense, giving up 277.4 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play.  They are allowing over 100 yards less per game than the Seahawks, and that’s the difference in this game.  The 49ers also have the better offensive numbers this year, scoring 30.2 points per game and gaining 379.9 yards per game while ranking 2nd in scoring and 6th in total offense. 

The 49ers also get an extra day of rest after beating the Rams on Saturday.  The Seahawks don’t have the same home-field advantage they used to.  They are just 2-5 ATS at home this season with losses to the Ravens, Saints and Cardinals outright.  Their four home wins came by 7, 6, 1 and 1 point and only one of those was against a playoff team in the Vikings.  Take the 49ers Sunday. 

25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee Titans +1 

The Tennessee Titans need a win and they’re in the playoffs.  We know they will be max motivated here.  The same cannot be said for the Houston Texans, which is why I have made this my 25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR for the 2019 season. 

The Texans have nothing to play for.  Yes, they could get the No. 3 seed instead of the No. 4 if the Chiefs lose to the Chargers and they win this game.  But the Chiefs are 9-point home favorites against the Chargers.  Kansas City plays at 1:00 EST, while Houston plays at 4:25 EST.  So the Texans will know their fate before they kick off, and that fate is going to be that they are locked into the No. 4 seed. 

After coming out Monday and saying he would play his starters, head coach Bill O’Brien has recanted as I expected, which is why I locked this line in early.  I expected him to rest his starters, and that’s precisely what he is going to do.  That’s why this line has moved roughly 7 points toward the Titans since the opening line. 

It looks like all the best players for the Texans will sit.  That includes QB Deshaun Watson, WR DeAndre Hopkins, T Laremy Tunsil, WR Kenny Stills, WR Will Fuller, DE J.J. Watt and there will likely be more.  The product the Texans put on the field won’t be good at all, and I expect the Titans to win this game easily by a TD or more and likely by double-digits. 

Tennessee actually sat some players last week, including RB Derrick Henry, against the Saints last week.  That game actually didn’t matter to them.  They knew that this Week 17 game was going to be their only chance of making the playoffs because it would give them the tiebreaker with the Steelers.  They already have the tiebreaker over the Raiders. 

The Titans still nearly beat the Saints and probably should have last week if not for a fumble when they were going in to take the lead in the closing minutes.  But now getting Henry back is huge for this team.  The Titans have been a juggernaut running the football down the stretch.  They have rushed for 169.4 yards per game in their last seven games. 

Ryan Tannehill has played at an MVP level since taking over for Marcus Mariota.  He is completing 70.7% of his passes for 2,544 yards with a 20-to-6 TD/INT ratio while also averaging a whopping 9.0 yards per attempt.  The Titans will be able to name their number against this Texans defense. 

Houston really should be 0-3 in their last three games overall.  They were beaten by 14 by the Broncos, won by 3 over the Titans and won by 3 over the Bucs.  But they lost the stats in all three games.  The Broncos hung 38 points on them, the Titans outgained them by 42 yards and the Bucs outgained them by 206 yards despite not having their top two receivers. 

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Houston) - off two consecutive road wins, a good team winning 60% to 75% of their games on the season are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1983.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Tennessee) - after playing a home game against an opponent that’s off a two-game road trip are 24-7 (77.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Titans Sunday. 

Note: I'm expecting the Texans to rest their starters since they clinched the division last week.  Bet this line as soon as it's available at your book. It's a 25* up to Titans -6.5, a 20* at anything worse.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Indianapolis Colts -4 

The Indianapolis Colts sit at 7-8 on the season.  They are clearly motivated to win in Week 17 to get to .500 on the season, because 8-8 sounds much better than 7-9.  And they showed that last week by crushing the Carolina Panthers 38-6 at home. 

Now the Colts go on the road to face a Jacksonville Jaguars team that has all but quit.  The Jaguars are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall with all six losses coming by double-digits.  They are failing to cover the spread by an average of 14 points per game during this stretch. 

The Colts beat the Jaguars 33-13 at home in their first meeting this season, and they should be able to go on the road and beat a hapless Jaguars team by more than 4 points.  The Jaguars know that they are likely lose all of their coaches in the offseason and it’s just a team in turmoil right now, which explains their disastrous finish. 

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Indianapolis) - after playing a home game against an opponent that is off a two-game road trip are 24-7 (77.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Colts are 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. AFC South opponents.  Indianapolis is 19-9-1 ATS in its last 29 games as a road favorite.  The Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and lost their last two home games by 35 to the Chargers and by 17 to the Bucs.  Take the Colts Sunday. 

20* AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Jets +4.5 

The Buffalo Bills have absolutely nothing to play for in Week 17.  They will be resting starters, and they should not be favored over the New York Jets as a result.  They are locked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC and will face the No. 4 seed, which will likely be the Houston Texans. 

The New York Jets are playing well down the stretch.  They are 5-2 in their last seven games overall.  They just upset the Pittsburgh Steelers 16-10 as 3-point home underdogs last week.  And they are looking to cap off a 6-2 run to finish the 2019 season and build momentum heading into next year. 

The Bills will just run, run and run some more to try and get this game over with.  Well, the Jets have the answer for Buffalo’s running game.  Indeed, the Jets rank 2nd in the NFL in giving up just 87.9 rushing yards per game.  They are also 1st in the NFL in allowing just 3.3 yards per carry. 

Plays on road teams (NY Jets) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games, in December games are 48-19 (71.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The underdog is 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings.  Bet the Jets Sunday. 

Note: I expect the Bills to rest their starters with nothing to play for in Week 17.  Bet this line as soon as it comes out at your book. It's a 20* up to Jets -3, a 15* at anything worse.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER On Cincinnati Bengals +3 

The Cincinnati Bengals locked up the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft with their loss to the Dolphins last week.  A win won’t hurt them now as they are in line to draft Joe Burrow.  They will be motivated to beat their division and in-state rival in the Cleveland Browns Sunday. 

The Bengals showed last week that they are still trying.  They erased a 16-point deficit in the final minute of that Miami game with two touchdowns and two 2-point conversions to force overtime.  It definitely would have been the worst beat all-time if the Dolphins had not gone on to win in overtime. 

The Browns are a dumpster fire.  They lost two weeks ago as favorites at Arizona by a final of 24-38.  They gave up 38 points and 445 total yards to the Cardinals.  And last week they lost by 16 at home to the Ravens.  They managed just 241 total yards and gave up 481 yards, getting outgained by 240 yards by the Ravens.  They won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Bengals in Week 17 as they were the Ravens last week. 

The Bengals want revenge from a 19-27 loss at Cleveland earlier this month.  Cincinnati really deserved to win that game.  They outgained the Browns 451 to 333, or by 118 total yards.  But they just couldn’t convert in the red zone, either kicking FG’s or coming up short on 4th downs.  And keep in mind Andy Dalton did not play in that game, but he is playing now and wants to show teams that he can still be a starter in this league. 

Plays on any team (Cincinnati) - revenging a road loss vs. opponent, off an upset loss as a road favorite are 100-53 (65.4%) ATS since 1983.  Cleveland is 1-8 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games over the last three seasons.  The Browns are 4-15 ATS off two or more consecutive losses over the last three years.  The Browns are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  The Bengals are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Roll with the Bengals Sunday. 

20* Packers/Vikings ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Minnesota -5 

The Minnesota Vikings want to stay alive in the NFC North title race.  To do so, they will have to beat the Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football.  They will be highly motivated because of it, plus they want revenge from a 16-21 loss at Green Bay in their first meeting this season. 

That was certainly a misleading final as the Vikings deserved to win the game.  They outgained the Packers 421 to 335 total yards but committed four turnovers.  One was a pick in the end zone when they were going in for the potential game-winning score in the 4th quarter.  They haven’t forgotten, and now it’s their turn for payback. 

The Packers are one of the most fraudulent 11-3 teams I’ve ever seen.  They have only outscored their opponents by a total of 47 points on the season.  To compare, Minnesota has outscored its opponents by 119 points on the year.  Now that’s the sign of an elite team.  Green Bay has simply been fortunate in close games, going 7-1 in one-score games this season. 

Minnesota is 10-4, but three of its losses have come by one score, and the other was a 10-point loss.  Eight of their 10 wins have come by double-digits, so they are every bit as good as their record, if not better.  And it means they know how to get margin when they need it, so I’m not concerned at all about laying the 5 points here. 

Another way to see how fraudulent the Packers are is to compare their yardage differential, not just point differential.  The Packers are actually getting outgained by 34.5 yards per game on the season.  They rank 21st in total offense and 22nd in total defense.  I am pretty certain I’ve never seen an 11-3 team that ranks worse than 20th in both categories.  The Vikings are 10th in total offense and 14th in total defense, outgaining teams by 33.7 yards per game. 

Plays against road underdogs or PK (Green Bay) - a hot team having won eight or more of their last 10 games are 40-16 (71.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays on favorites (Minnesota) - after having won three of their last four games when playing a hot team that’s won eight or more of their last 10 games are 29-9 (76.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. 

Green Bay is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Packers are 3-11 ATS off one or more consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons.   

Mike Zimmer is 22-8 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of Minnesota.  The Vikings are 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 home games.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Minnesota.  Bet the Vikings Monday. 

20* Chiefs/Bears NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Kansas City -6 

The Kansas City Chiefs have been playing defense like the ’85 Bears here down the stretch.  That’s a scary proposition for the rest of the NFL when you consider the Chiefs have arguably the best offense in the NFL when healthy.  The Chiefs are only giving up 11.3 points per game over their last four games. 

Now Kansas City goes up against an awful Chicago offense that ranks 28th in the NFL in averaging just 298.4 yards per game.  The Bears are also scoring just 18.3 points per game, and I just don’t see how they are going to keep up with the Chiefs in this one. 

And that’s even if the Bears actually show up.  I could see them packing it in this week after suffering their dream-crushing loss to the division rival Packers last week.  That loss eliminated them from playoff contention, and I usually love fading teams the week after they’ve been eliminated from the playoffs. 

The Chiefs are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with all four wins coming by at least 7 points, so they should have no problem beating this hapless Bears team by a TD or more.  They went on the road and beat both the Chargers by 7 and the Patriots by 7. And they also beat the Raiders by 31 and the Broncos by 20 at home.  They are hitting on all cylinders right now. 

The Bears have some injuries that will prevent them from being competitive also.  They are without LB Danny Trevethan, DE Akiem Hicks, OT Bobbie Massie and WR Taylor Gabriel.  And it’s a pretty easy choice here to back Patrick Mahomes over Mitch Trubisky, who just called out his coach last week and there’s certainly some divisiveness in their locker room right now. 

The Chiefs are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 road games.  Kansas City is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games off an ATS win.  Chicago is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  Take the Chiefs Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on Arizona Cardinals +9.5 

The Seattle Seahawks are the most fraudulent 11-3 team I’ve ever seen.  They have only outscored opponents by a total of 26 points on the season.  They are 10-1 in games decide by one score, so they have been lucky in close games.  Only once have they won a game by more than 8 points all season. 

A lot of people will tell you it’s because Russell Wilson has the ‘clutch gene’.  But Wilson was just 31-33 in one-score games in his career prior to this season.  Getting Arizona catching more than one score here is a tremendous value that we’re going to capitalize on Sunday. 

The Seahawks have a ton of injuries right now that are holding them back, too.  On defense, they’ll be without DE Jadeveon Clowney, NT Al Woods and S Quandre Diggs.  They have key injuries on all three levels of their defense.  Offensively, they will be without LT Duane Brown, and they just lost star WR Josh Gordon to a suspension. 

The Seahawks can afford to lose this game and they’d still win the division if they beat the 49ers next week.  That makes this a huge lookahead spot for them.  Everything will be on the line next week, not this week.  And we’ve seen the Seahawks throw up some duds all season at home.  They only beat the Bengals by 1, lost to the Saints, lost to the Ravens, only beat the Rams by 1, and needed OT to beat the Bucs.  They haven’t won a home game by more than 7 points yet this season. 

I can’t give the Seahawks much respect because they don’t deserve it with how poor their defense is.  Seattle ranks 27th in the NFL in total defense, giving up 378.3 yards per game. Arizona just hung 38 points on Cleveland last week and will be able to move the ball and score points on this Seattle D.  The back door will always be open if we need it. 

The Cardinals have done their best work on the road this season, where they are 4-1-1 ATS.  And that one push was when they led San Francisco the entire way until the final seconds and gave up a lateral return TD that turned a lead into a 10-point loss as 10-point dogs.  They only lost by 6 at Baltimore, beat the Bengals and Giants outright, and lost by 3 at Tampa.  Their only blowout road loss came to the Saints. 

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team is 9-1 SU & 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The Cardinals are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Seattle.  Arizona is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games with a total of 49.5 or higher. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Seattle) - after having won six or seven of their last eight games, a team that wins 75% or more of their games in the 2nd half of the season are 34-13 (72.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Tennessee Titans +3 

The Tennessee Titans would be out of the playoffs if their season ended today.  They are tied with the Steelers for the 6th seed, but currently lose out on the tiebreaker.  They are in must-win mode this week, and have been since Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback.  And they’ve delivered. 

The Titans are 6-2 SU & 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Last week’s loss to Houston was misleading.  A receiver dropped a Tannehill pass on the goal line that was intercepted and returned 90 yards to set up an easy score for the Texans.  It was the difference in the game in a 24-21 win by Houston. 

Tannehill is completing 71.5% of his passes with a 17-to-6 TD/INT ratio and a whopping 9 yards per attempt.  The Titans having the threat of the pass with Tannehill and his underrated targets has opened things up for the running game here in the second half of the season.  They have averaged 174 rushing yards per game in their last six games. 

The Saints will be working on a short week here after playing on Monday Night Football.  It’s definitely a potential letdown spot after Drew Brees set the all-time passing TD record and the highest completion percentage every in a single game.  The Colts simply did not show up after their deflating loss to the Bucs the previous week that pretty much knocked them out of contention. 

The Titans will be able to exploit some injuries on the Saints’ defense that the Colts could not.  The Saints lost top pass rusher Marcus Davenport and top run stuffer Sheldon Rankins to injuries two weeks ago against the 49ers.  They have injuries along the offensive line and in the secondary of note as well. 

New Orleans is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 road games after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games coming in.  The Saints are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite.  The Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog. 

Plays on home teams off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, a team that wins 51% to 60% of their games playing a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season are 28-8 ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Titans Sunday. 

20* Rams/49ers NFC West No-Brainer on San Francisco -6.5 

I was on the Atlanta Falcons against the 49ers last week as my 25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR.  I recognized it was a huge flat spot for them after playing the Packers, Ravens & Saints in three consecutive weeks, and with games against the division rival Rams and Seahawks on deck.  And the 49ers lost outright. 

I think we will look back and see that was a loss they needed to get humbled.  They could afford that loss, it didn’t hurt them at all.  Now they can’t afford another loss.  It’s simple for the 49ers now.  Win out and they’ll be the #1 seed in the NFC.  They are in control of their own destiny, and I know they’ll put their best foot forward today because of it, and it will be good enough to beat the Rams by 7 points or more. 

The Rams suffered a devastating 21-44 loss to the Cowboys last week.  Now they have about a 3% chance to make the playoffs.  They need to win out and have the Vikings lose out to make the playoffs.  It’s simply not going to happen, they know it, I know it, we all know it.  So I don’t expect a very good effort from the Rams here after they just had their dreams crushed with that loss to Dallas. 

It wasn’t just any loss, either.  The Cowboys throttled them 44-21.  And the Rams got two garbage touchdowns late in the 4th quarter to make the score appear better than it really was.  Their defense was shredded for 475 total yards, and their offense only managed 289 total yards with the majority of that coming on their final two drives of the game. 

Jared Goff was playing awful before he hit his thumb on a Cowboys’ helmet.  He became check down Charlie after that.  I think his thumb is a real problem that’s not being talked about much at all.  Meanwhile, the 49ers are expected to get some key players back from injury this week, including CB Richard Sherman. 

San Francisco beat the Rams 20-7 on the road as 3-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  That game was even more of a blowout than the final score showed.  The 49ers held the Rams to just 10 first downs and 165 total yards.  They sacked Goff four times and pressured him 22 more times while limiting him to 56 passing yards on 24 attempts, an average of just 2.3 yards per attempt. 

When the Rams have stepped up in class this season, they have gotten throttled.  They had that 20-7 loss to the 49ers, that 21-44 loss to the Cowboys, and don’t forget they lost 6-45 to Baltimore a few weeks back.  When Goff is pressured, he folds, and we’ve seen it time and time again.  The Rams simply can’t hang with the top teams in the NFL, and they won’t hang with the 49ers this week, either. 

The Rams are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games as underdogs.  Los Angeles is 22-46 ATS in its last 68 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Saturday games.  San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record.  The 49ers are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the 49ers Saturday. 

20* Colts/Saints ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Indianapolis +10 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Indianapolis Colts this week.  They have lost five of their last six games overall.  They lost the last three weeks despite holding a second half lead in all three games.  That’s because they have been outscored 31-0 in the fourth quarter in their losses to the Titans, Texans & Bucs. 

Four of those five losses came by 4 points or less.  The only one they lost by more than that was their misleading 17-31 loss to Tennessee.  Indianapolis was attempting a FG that would have given them the lead with only five minutes left, but it was blocked and returned for a TD.  That 10-point swing was the difference in the game.  The Colts actually outgained the Titans 391 to 292 for the game. 

The Saints are coming off the type of loss that could beat them twice.  They lost a 46-48 shootout to the 49ers at home on a last-second field goal.  They went for two instead of kicking the extra point early in the game, and it probably cost them the game.  I believe this is now a huge flat spot for the Saints, who have basically given home-field advantage to the 49ers now. 

New Orleans has some real big injuries that are getting overlooked on defense right now.  It’s a big reason the 49ers scored 48 points and gained 516 total yards on them last week.  They lost pass rusher Marcus Davenport and run stuffer Sheldon Rankins to injuries last week against the 49ers.  They were playing without LB’s AJ Klein and Kiko Alonso last week and both are questionable again this week.  This once-stout New Orleans defense has started to show a ton of holes in recent weeks. 

New Orleans is fortunate to be 10-3 this season.  The Saints are 7-1 in one-possession games this season.  Seven of their 10 wins have come by 8 points or fewer.  I think there’s tremendous value with the Colts catching double-digits because of it. 

Plays on road underdogs or PK (Indianapolis) - off a close loss by 3 points or less, in the last four weeks of the regular season are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS since 1983.   

The Colts are 10-2 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 350 or more yards per game over the last three years.  New Orleans is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games after having won six or seven of its last eight games.  The Colts are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game.  Indianapolis is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.  New Orleans is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 home games.  Bet the Colts Monday.

25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons +11.5 

This is a massive letdown spot for the 49ers. They have played three straight games against three of the best teams in the NFL.  They beat the Packers at home before losing to the Ravens on a last-second field goal on the road.  Then they got a last-second field goal of their own to beat the Saints on the road last week. 

That was a 48-46 shootout and it had to take a lot out of them.  Remember, they stayed in Florida last week so they’ve been gone from their families for two weeks.  I usually like fading teams when they come back home off long road trips because there are a lot of distractions they must deal with back home.  And it’s a sandwich spot for them with two huge division games coming up against the Rams and Seahawks the next two weeks. 

The 49ers suffered some key injuries in that win over the Saints, too.  They lost center Weston Richburg for the season.  They also lost DE Dee Ford and CB Richard Sherman to hamstring injuries.  They have a handful of other guys questionable this week, including do-it-all FB Kyle Juszcyk.  They are in about as poor a shape injury-wise as they’ve been all season, which is saying a lot for a team that has been banged up all year. 

The Atlanta Falcons continue to battle week in and week out.  They have won three of their last five games and have been competitive in four of them.  They beat the Saints on the road and took the Saints to the wire at home.  They blew out the Panthers on the road and at home.  They have outgained four of their last five opponents. 

The Falcons got back Julio Jones and Austin Hooper last week and promptly put up 40 points and 461 total yards on the Panthers in a 40-20 win.  They will relish this opportunity to face the top team in the NFC and former coordinator Kyle Shanahan.  The 49ers can afford a loss because basically their season is going to come down to their Week 17 game against the Seahawks.  I just think this is a really bad spot for the 49ers, especially asking them to lay double-digits here. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (San Francisco) - after having won six or seven of their last eight games, a top team that wins 75% or more of their games in the second half of the season are 33-11 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The 49ers are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite.  Bet the Falcons Sunday. 

15* Rams/Cowboys NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles PK 

The Dallas Cowboys just seem content to play bad football knowing that none of these games matter for them.  The only game that matters is next week against the Philadelphia Eagles.  The winner of that game will likely win the NFC East.  The Cowboys have lost three straight games coming in, including upset losses to the Bills and Bears the last two weeks. 

The Los Angeles Rams simply need this game more right now.  The Rams are 8-5 and one game behind the Vikings for the 6th and final playoff spot in the NFC.  They really need to win out if they want to make the playoffs.  They’re playing like a hungry team, too. 

The Rams beat Arizona 34-7 on the road two weeks ago and racked up 549 total yards while limiting the Cardinals to just 198 yards.  And last week they won 28-12 at home over the Seahawks.  They gained 455 total yards on the Seahawks and held them to just 308 yards.  They also held the Seahawks without an offensive touchdown as their only TD came on a pick-6. 

Jared Goff and this Rams offense is now hitting on all cylinders now that he has his full compliment of weapons.  And they are shutting teams down defensively.  I like the matchup for the Rams because stopping the run is the key to stopping the Cowboys.  The Rams rank 4th in the NFL in giving up just 3.8 yards per carry. 

The Rams are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team with a losing record.  The Rams are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games off two straight wins over division opponents.  Los Angeles is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games overall.  Dallas is 1-7 ATS in its last eight against a team with a winning record. 

I know the Rams will show up this week, and I’m convinced the Cowboys are looking ahead to their game against the Eagles next week from what I’ve seen from them.  We’ll back the more motivated team here this afternoon.  Take the Rams Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Arizona Cardinals +3 

The Cleveland Browns should not be favored on the road here against the Arizona Cardinals.  The Browns have a laundry list of injuries on their offensive and defensive lines that will make it very difficult for them to beat the Cardinals this week. 

Cleveland is coming off a misleading 27-19 home win over the awful Cincinnati Bengals.  They deserved to lose that game, but the Bengals gave it to them.  Cincinnati racked up 453 total yards and held Cleveland to just 323 yards in the game.  But the Bengals either turned it over on downs or settled for field goals too many times in the red zone.  To give up 453 yards to the Bengals is a bad sign for this Cleveland defense. 

Arizona hung tough at home against Pittsburgh last week in a 17-23 loss.  The difference in that game was a special teams touchdown for the Steelers.  And after facing three great defenses in a row in the 49ers, Rams and Steelers, Kyler Murray and company are ready to bust out here against this soft Cleveland defense this week. 

Arizona is 25-11 ATS in its last 36 home games off a home loss.  The Browns are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing record.  Wrong team favored here.  Take the Cardinals Sunday. 

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Tennessee Titans -3 

The Tennessee Titans are playing as well as anyone in the NFL since Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback. They are 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  This run has moved them into a first place tie with the Houston Texans in the AFC South.  Now they have their chance to pull ahead as they host the Texans today. 

If the Titans were going to have a letdown, it would have been last week.  It didn’t happen.  The Titans handled their business by crushing the Raiders 42-21 on the road.  That game was every bit as big of a blowout as the final score showed.  The Titans racked up 552 total yards on the Raiders as their offense continues to thrive. 

Tannehill is completing 73.4% of his passes for 1,993 yards with a 15-to-5 TD/INT ratio and a 118.5 QBR this season.  Derrick Henry has really gotten going on the ground as the Titans have rushed for at least 121 yards in five straight games and an average of 176 rushing yards per game during this stretch. 

Now the Titans should continue to have success against a soft Houston defense that simply hasn’t been very good without JJ Watt.  The Texans gave up 448 total yards to the Patriots two weeks ago and 38 points and 391 yards to a bad Broncos offense last week.  They give up 23.8 points per game on the season and are worst than that of late.  The Titans only allow 19.6 points per game on the year and clearly have the better defense in this matchup. 

Tennessee is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less.  Houston is 1-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Titans are 6-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 6.0 yards per play or more over the last two years.  The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with the Titans Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Broncos +10 

I always like fading teams off an upset win over the New England Patriots.  That’s the case for the Chiefs, who were aided by the refs in their 23-16 win at New England last week.  Now the Chiefs have clinched the AFC West and this is a massive letdown spot for them.  They got their revenge on the Patriots from their playoff loss last year, and now they’ll relax. 

We saw the same thing happen to the Houston Texans last week.  Off their upset win over the Patriots, they promptly lost outright as nearly double-digit favorites at home to the Denver Broncos.  Now the Broncos get to play the role of spoiler again and they come in here with some momentum. 

Indeed, the Broncos throttled the Texans 38-24.  It was an even bigger blowout than that as the Broncos led by as many as 28 points.  They racked up 391 total yards on the Texans, and rookie QB Drew Lock was brilliant.  He went 22-of-27 passing for 309 yards and three touchdowns with one interception.  Now Lock should continue to have success against his soft Kansas City defense. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Denver) - after covering the spread in three of their last four games, a team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. 

The Chiefs have consistency been overvalued at home here of late.  They have lost three of their last five home games outright.  The Broncos are 9-2 ATS after covering the spread in two of their last three games over the last two seasons.  Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Broncos only have three double-digit losses this season.  Bet the Broncos Sunday. 

20* Jets/Ravens AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York +17 

The Baltimore Ravens are the most public team in the NFL right now due to their nine-game winning streak and their 11-2 record, which is the best in the AFC.  This line has gotten out of control as a result, and there’s clearly value on the Jets catching more than two touchdowns tonight. 

The Ravens are coming off two very physical games against San Francisco and Buffalo.  They needed a last-second field goal to beat the 49ers at home, and they were fortunate to cover by getting a red zone stand in the closing seconds of a 24-17 win over the Bills as 6.5-point favorites last week. 

I think this is a letdown spot for the Ravens now.  Not to mention they will be without two starting offensive linemen in C Matt Skura and T Ronnie Stanley.  Leading receiver Mark Andrews is battling a knee injury.  QB Lamar Jackson just showed up on the injury report this week with a quad injury, so I think the Ravens will be careful with him.  And without Jackson at 100% and the whole playbook available, it will be tough for the Ravens to cover this massive spread. 

I like the fact that the Ravens know they can lose this game and still be in 1st place in the AFC.  Knowing they have that in their hip pocket will make them not be as motivated as they have been up to this point to put themselves in this enviable position.  Meanwhile, the Jets will be treating this game like their Super Bowl with the chance to go toe-to-toe with the top team in the AFC. 

It’s not like the Jets are the worst team in the NFL, which is what this line basically indicates.  The Jets are actually 4-1 SU in their last five games overall.  I know it hasn’t come against the greatest competition, but this team is still battling hard and trying to win every game.  Sam Darnold has found a connection with Robby Anderson on offense, and the defense continues playing at a very high level. 

The key to stopping the Ravens is stopping the run, and that makes this an excellent matchup for the Jets.  New York ranks 2nd in the NFL against the run, giving up just 78.8 rushing yards per game.  More importantly, the Jets rank 1st in the league in giving up just 3.0 yards per carry.  They have far and away the best rushing defense in the NFL when you look at the numbers as a whole. 

Baltimore is 1-9 ATS in home games vs. teams that commit 60-plus penalty yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Ravens are 0-6 ATS in home games after covering the spread in four or five of their last six games over the past three seasons.  Baltimore is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Ravens are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite.  Bet the Jets Thursday. 

20* Giants/Eagles ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New York +10 

The New York Giants would love nothing more than to wreck the Philadelphia Eagles’ season.  The Eagles are doing plenty of that on their own, and there’s no way they should be double-digit favorites here against a division rival. 

The Eagles are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost to the Patriots 10-17 at home and to the Seahawks 9-17 at home.  And last week was the ultimate embarrassment, giving up 37 points in a loss to the Dolphins as 10-point road favorites.  There are problems on the Eagles that aren’t fixable, and especially in their secondary. 

The Giants should be motivated here with the return of Eli Manning at quarterback.  They want to send their veteran out the right way, and Manning wants to prove that he can still get it done.  Playing this soft Eagles secondary will certainly help matters.  Plus, the Giants are expected to get back Golden Tate from injury this week to give Manning another weapon. 

The Giants are coming off a misleading 13-31 home loss to the Packers.  Daniel Jones gave the game away with interceptions as the Giants lost the turnover battle 3-0.  But the Giants only gave up 322 total yards to the Packers and actually outshined them by 13 yards in the game. 

New York has always been a better road team than home team.  The Giants are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games, and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog.  New York is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games played on a grass field.  The Eagles haven’t beaten the Giants by more than 5 points in any of the last three meetings in Philadelphia.  The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Philadelphia is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 home games.  Bet the Giants Monday. 

20* NBC Sunday Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Rams +1 

The Seattle Seahawks have the worst point differential (+36) of any 10-2 or better team in the history of the NFL.  That’s because they have gone 9-1 in one-score games this year.  They have been extremely fortunate in close games and are nowhere near as good as their record as a result.  This is more like a 7-5 team at best. 

A lot of Seahawks backers will say that Russell Wilson has the ‘clutch gene’ so they should win more close games.  That’s simply not true.  In fact, coming into this season, Wilson was just 31-33 in one-score games in his career.  The fact of the matter is the Seahawks are a fraudulent, fortunate team that is now overvalued due to their record. 

The Seahawks were 1.5-point home favorites in their first meeting with the Rams this season.  Now they are 1-point road favorites.  If you adjust for home-field advantage, which is usually close to a 6-point swing, the Seahawks should be 4.5-point underdogs in the rematch.  I think there’s a ton of value getting the Rams as home underdogs tonight. 

Keep in mind the Rams deserved to beat the Seahawks in that first meeting.  They lost 29-30 only after Greg Zurlein missed a 43-yard field goal in the final seconds that would have won the game for the Rams.  Now, Los Angeles wants revenge on the Seahawks, and their season is essentially on the line tonight.  The Seahawks can afford to lose this game knowing that they have a later meeting with the 49ers that will likely decide the division champ. 

The Rams are as healthy as they’ve been all season as Jared Goff now has his full compliment of weapons on offense.  That showed last week as the Rams went into Arizona and won 34-7 against a Cardinals team off their bye week.  The Rams racked up 549 total yards in the win while holding the Cardinals to just 198 total yards, outgaining them by 351 yards.  Goff went 32-of-43 passing for 424 yards with two touchdowns in the win, and Todd Gurley carried 19 times for 95 yards and a score to prove he is just fine health-wise. 

This game means everything to Rams because they have tough road games at Dallas and San Francisco coming up the next two weeks.  If they want to make the playoffs, they have to win this game.  And they should be fresh after blowing out the Cardinals.  Meanwhile, the Seahawks are on a short week here after playing in a grueling, physical 37-30 home win against the Minnesota Vikings on Monday. 

The Seahawks are frauds because they rank 24th in total defense in allowing 368.9 yards per game this season.  And Goff and the Rams always diced up this defense.  They have scored 29 or more points in four straight games against the Seahawks while averaging 35 points per game in those four meetings.  And stopping the run is the key to stopping the Seahawks.  The Rams rank 3rd in the NFL in giving up just 3.7 yards per carry. 

Plays against road underdogs or PK (Seattle) - a hot team having won eight or more of their last 10 games are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Rams are 7-1 ATS when playing on six or fewer days’ rest this season.  Los Angeles is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 NFC games.  Sean McVay is 6-0 ATS after a dominant performance with 34-plus minutes time of possession and 24-plus first downs last game as the coach of the Rams.  Bet the Rams Sunday. 

15* Titans/Raiders AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Oakland +3 

This is the ultimate ‘buy low, sell high’ situation.  We’ll ‘buy low’ on the Raiders coming off back-to-back blowout road losses to the Jets and Chiefs by 31 points each.  And we’ll ’sell high’ on the Titans, who have won five of their last six games overall coming in. 

This Titans run has featured four home wins and only one road win.  They lost 20-30 at Carolina and they were fortunate to win last week at Indianapolis.  It was a 17-17 game with five minutes left and the Colts kicking a FG that was blocked and returned for a TD.  That 10-point swing was the difference in the game.  The Titans were outgunned by 99 yards in that game as they gave up 391 yards to the Colts and only managed 292 yards themselves. 

The Raiders had a no-show at the Jets two weeks ago knowing they had a huge game on deck with the Chiefs.  They promptly lost 9-40 at Kansas City.  But that was a hugely misleading final as the Raiders actually outgained the Chiefs 332 to 259 or by 73 total yards.  It’s hard to score 40 points on just 259 total yards, yet the Chiefs managed to do it. 

Now the Raiders are back home where they have been at their best this season.  They are 4-1 at home this year with their only loss coming to those aforementioned Chiefs.  Their season is on the line here as they are chasing both the Titans and the Steelers for the final wild card spot in the AFC.  It’s a must-win to say the least, and I expect the Raiders to get the job done. 

This is definitely a sandwich spot for the Titans.  They are coming off that huge road win over the division rival Colts that moved them within one game of first place in the AFC South.  Now they have a home game against Houston on deck next week.  In fact, they play the Texans two more times this season, so they are in control of their own destiny no matter what happens this week.  I don’t expect them to show up fully focused, while I know we’ll get Oakland’s best effort this week. 

Plays on any team (Oakland) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games against an opponent that went over the total by 35 or more points in their last three games are 34-8 (81%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.   

The Titans are 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 games as road favorites.  The Raiders are 8-2 ATS In their last 10 games off a loss.  Oakland is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games.  The Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a home underdog.  Roll with the Raiders Sunday. 

20* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo Bills +6 

This is a great spot for the Buffalo Bills with extra rest having played last Thursday.  That gives Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott extra time to prepare to stop Lamar Jackson and this Ravens offense.  The 49ers top-ranked defense held the Ravens to just 20 points last week.  And now this 3rd-ranked Buffalo defense will have some success as well.

Baltimore is coming off a huge last-second win over the 49ers.  And the betting bandwagon on this Ravens team right now could not be more full.  The betting public just continues to hammer this team.  I think there’s a ton of value in getting the Bills as 6-point home underdogs.  This line should be closer to Baltimore -3, so we are getting at least 3 points of value based off of public perception.

The Bills have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, especially late in the year.  And they are 9-3 and only one game out of first place in the AFC East right now.  Keep in mind they dominated the Patriots everywhere but the scoreboard in their first meeting, otherwise they would be in 1st place.

Josh Allen was brilliant in leading the Bills to a 26-15 win at Dallas in a game they also dominated from start to finish on Thursday.  That game was never in doubt as the Bills controlled the whole game as 7-point road underdogs.  Yet nobody wants to believe in them.  I was on the 49ers last week against the Ravens, and I’m fading them again this week as it’s still time to ’sell high’ on them.

The Bills are really starting to run the football well now that they have a healthy one-two punch of Gore and Singletary in the backfield, plus Allen is an underrated runner and always has been since he entered the league.  The Bills have rushed for 178.7 yards per game in their last three games.  Well, the Ravens just gave up 174 rushing yards on 29 carries to the 49ers last week, so they can be run on.  The Ravens have allowed 122-plus rushing yards in three of their last four games.

Plays on home games (Buffalo) - off an upset win as an underdog in a game involving two top teams that win 75% or more of their games are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS since 1983.  Plays against road teams (Baltimore) - off eight or more consecutive wins in December games are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS since 1983.  Take the Bills Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Dolphins +5 

It’s safe to say the Jets won’t be making a run to the playoffs now despite what Sam Darnold said five weeks ago.  The Jets reeled off three straight wins, but then promptly lost 6-22 on the road to the Cincinnati Bengals last week.  That was the previously winless Cincinnati Bengals.  

 It doesn’t get any lower than that, and I just don’t think the Jets will be playing with much passion the rest of the year now.  Not to mention, no team has been hit harder by injuries than the Jets.  They have a whopping 32 players on the injury report with 21 of them out and another eight of them questionable. 

The Miami Dolphins continue to shows up week in and week out behind Ryan Fitzpatrick.  They have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with three outright upsets.  That includes their 37-31 win as 10-point home dogs to the Eagles last week.  They diced up that Philadelphia secondary for 351 passing yards as Fitz formed a great chemistry with DeVante Parker, who had seven receptions for 159 yards. 

The Jets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games against bad teams that are outscored by 10-plus points per game.  New York is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as a favorite.  The Jets are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC East opponents.  The Dolphins are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings after upsetting the Jets 26-18 as 3.5-point home dogs in their first meeting this season.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indianapolis Colts +3.5 

This is a great opportunity to ‘buy low’ on the Indianapolis Colts, who have lost four of their last five games coming in.  And it’s a great spot to ’sell high’ on the Tampa Bay Bucs, who have won three of their last four coming in. 

The Colts’ four losses here recently can all be explained.  They lost to three potential playoff teams in the Steelers, Dolphins, Texans and Titans.  They had Brian Hoyer at QB for two of those losses to Miami and Pittsburgh.  They played the Texans tough in a 3-point road loss.  And last week’s 17-31 loss to the Titans was misleading as they had a 10-point swing when they were kicking a FG to go in the lead and had it blocked and returned for a TD with five minutes left.  They also outgained the Titans by 99 yards and deserved to win. 

The Bucs are playing much better, but keep in mind their three wins during this stretch came against three of the worst teams in the NFL in the Cardinals, Falcons and Jaguars.  Their lone loss was a 17-34 home loss to the Saints.  Now the Bucs are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers as 3.5-point favorites here against a playoff contender in the Colts. 

This just feels like a ‘rally the troops’ type of game for the Colts.  They need a win to stay alive to win the AFC South, and they should get some help this week with the return of Marlon Mack at running back.  The Colts racked up 391 total yards on the Titans last week and now get Mack back.  They should be able to dice up a weak Tampa Bay defense that give up 28.8 points per game overall. 

The Bucs have actually played their worst football at home this season.  They are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS at home this year with their only win coming 30-27 over the Cardinals in comeback fashion.  They are giving up 31.0 points per game at home.  The Colts have the much better defense and have been competitive on the road, giving up just 21.2 points per game on the highway this year and 21.4 points per game overall. 

The Colts are 10-2 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 350 or more yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Bucs are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 vs. AFC South opponents.  The Colts are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  Indianapolis is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit home loss.  The Bucs are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Tampa Bay is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 games as a home favorite.  Indianapolis is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take the Colts Sunday. 

20* Cowboys/Bears FOX Thursday No-Brainer on Dallas -2.5 

The Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears are both 6-6 this season.  However, the Cowboys are favored for good reason here because they are much better than a 6-6 team, while the Bears are much worse than a 6-6 team.  I’ll lay the short number with the Cowboys here because of it. 

Dallas is outgaining its opponents by 111.1 yards per game on the season.  That’s the sign of an elite team and one of the best marks in the entire NFL.  The Cowboys have the top-ranked offense in the NFL at 432.8 yards per game.  They are also 1st in yards per play (6.5) and 1st in 3rd down conversion rate (49%). 

Chicago is getting outgained by 38 yards per game.  The Bears rank 30th in yard per play (4.6), 29th in 3rd down conversion rate (31%) and 29th in total offense at 281.8 yards per game.  Both teams are pretty equal on defense as the Bears are 7th in total defense at 319.7 yards per game and the Cowboys are 8th at 321.6 yards per game. 

Of back-to-back losses where they felt like they should have won against the Patriots and Bills, the Cowboys will be highly motivated for a win here Thursday.  And the Bears are coming off back-to-back wins over the Giants and Lions.  They needed a late comeback to beat the Lions and their 3rd-string quarterback last week. 

Dallas is 6-0 ATS after having lost three of its last four games overall the past three seasons.  Chicago is 0-6 ATS after gaining 99 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games this season.  The Cowboys are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road favorite.  The Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Chicago is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing more than 350 yards in its previous game.  Bet the Cowboys Thursday. 

20* Vikings/Seahawks ESPN No-Brainer on Minnesota +3 

The Seattle Seahawks are one of the most fraudulent 9-2 teams in the history of the NFL.  They have only outscored their opponents by a total of 29 points on the season, which is the sign of a team that would be closer to 6-5 than 9-2.  At least nine teams in the NFL have outscored their opponents by more than 29 points on the season. 

One of those teams is the Minnesota Vikings, who have outscored their opponents by a total of 84 points and are every bit as good as their 8-3 record would indicate.  Now the Seahawks’ luck will run out against one of the best teams in the NFL here in the Vikings.  I expect Minnesota to win this game outright. 

The Vikings have won six of their last seven games overall with their only loss coming on the road to the Kansas City Chiefs.  Six of their eight wins this season have come by double-digits.  They once again have an elite defense that is giving up just 18.6 points per game on the season. 

Kirk Cousins is having one of the best seasons of his career.  He is completing 70.6% of his passes for 2,756 yards with a 21-to-3 TD/INT ratio and 8.6 yards per attempt.  A big reason he has been so good is because the Vikings finally have a rushing attack with Dalvin Cook, who has 1,017 yards and 11 touchdowns on the season while averaging 4.8 per carry. 

One of the biggest reasons I see the Seahawks as frauds is because they have an awful defense that ranks 24th in the NFL in allowing 370.3 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play.  They also give up 23.9 points per game.  Now they will be without their best pass rusher in Jadeveon Clowney this week, making their job a whole lot tougher. 

The Vikings have two full weeks to prepare for the Seahawks coming off their bye week.  They want revenge on the Seahawks after losing five straight to them, including a one-point loss in the playoffs a few years back in Seattle after they missed a chip shot field goal for the win.  The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  They are actually getting outscored by 3.4 points per game at home this season.  Bet the Vikings Monday. 

15* Raiders/Chiefs AFC West ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -10 

The Kansas City Chiefs own the Oakland Raiders and the AFC West in general.  The Chiefs have won nine of their last 10 meetings with the Raiders with six of those wins coming by double-digits.  It will be more of the same today with the Chiefs today as they win by double-digits over the Raiders with first place in the AFC West on the line. 

The Chiefs haven’t been as dominant as they were last year.  But it’s also true that they haven’t been healthy all season.  Patrick Mahomes has missed some time, and several of his weapons have missed games.  But now the Chiefs are as healthy as they have been all season.  And they’re going to be a scary team moving forward.  Their season-long stats aren’t as good as they are going to be from here on out. 

Andy Reid is one of the best head coaches of all-time off a bye.  He is 22-4 SU & 17-9 ATS off a bye and will obviously have his team ready to go with what’s at stake today.  He doesn’t need any motivational speeches with first place in the AFC West at stake. 

The Raiders are coming off a 3-34 road loss to the New York Jets last week.  It was their worst game of the season, and I’m definitely concerned about this team moving forward.  They only managed 208 total yards against a bad Jets defense.  Oakland’s leaky defense gave up 401 total yards to a bad Jets offense too.  This had been a poor Oakland defense all season giving up 25.8 points and 370.8 yards per game, including 30.3 points and 372.8 yards per game on the road. 

Oakland is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Raiders are 19-36 ATS in their last 55 games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 points or more.  Oakland is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road games.  Kansas City is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 vs. AFC West opponents.  Take the Chiefs Sunday. 

25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Rams/Cardinals OVER 47 

The Los Angeles Rams just got two weapons back last week in Robert Woods and Brandon Cooks.  They weren’t in sync against the Rams Monday night, but they will be in sync against this putrid Cardinals defense. Look for the Rams to get back to being the old Rams offensively this week. 

Not only have the injuries held their offense back, but they’ve been up against three straight good defenses in Pittsburgh, Chicago and Baltimore.  They now face an Arizona defense that gives up 28.8 points per game and ranks 31st in total defense in allowing 415.2 yards per game.  Many offenses have gotten right against the Cardinals this season.  Indeed, the Cardinals have allowed 28-plus points in four straight games coming in. 

The Rams were exposed defensively by the Ravens Monday night.  They gave up 45 points and 480 total yards.  The Rams rushed for 285 yards on them, really softening up their defense.  I think their defense will still be tired from that game because they are on a short week.  Look for the Cardinals to expose them too. 

I expect this Arizona offense to be hitting on all cylinders coming out of their bye week with a first-year head coach.  You know Kliff Kingsbury has a few extra tricks up his sleeve for the Rams in this one.  And it’s an Arizona offense that has really improved as the season has gone along under Kyler Murray. 

Indeed, the Cardinals have scored 25 or more points in six of their last seven games overall.  It should come as no surprise that the OVER has gone 5-2 in those games.  And the Cardinals should get to 25 in this one, so with the Rams favored by 3, this game should easily exceed this 47-point total.  After all, the Rams have scored at least 31 points in each of their last four meetings with the Cardinals. 

Plays on the OVER on any team (Arizona) - after allowing 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games against an opponent that allowed 450 or more total yards in their previous game are 31-8 (79.5%) over the last five seasons.  Arizona is 13-4 to the OVER in its last 17 games after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. 

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Jets -3 

Sam Darnold started to talk about the playoffs after the Jets beat the Giants 34-27 three weeks ago.  Everyone laughed at him, and they’re still laughing because it’s probably not possible.  But the fact of the matter is he has delivered since making that statement.  And the Jets have the belief they can make the playoffs in that locker room, which is all that really matters. 

Darnold went on to lead the Jets to a 34-17 win at Washington and a 34-3 home win over Oakland last week.  I realize the competition hasn’t been great, but the Jets have scored 34 points on three straight NFL defenses.  And now they face the worst team in the NFL in the 0-11 Cincinnati Bengals.  I don’t see anything changing here. 

The Bengals give up 26.5 points and are dead last in total defense at 417.2 yards per game allowed.  Their offense ranks 31st in scoring at 14.3 points per game and they’ve been held to 17 points or fewer in six straight games coming in.  They are going back to Andy Dalton this week at quarterback, but it won’t matter. 

Dalton doesn’t have any weapons outside with AJ Green and John Ross sidelined.  And the Bengals' only hope is to run the football with Joe Mixon.  That certainly won’t be easy this week.  The Jets are 1st in the NFL against the run, giving up just 78.1 yards per game and 3.0 yards per carry.  Only one player has rushed for 100 yards against the Jets, and that was Zeke Elliott in Week 6, a game the Jets won. 

The Bengals are coming off a tough 10-16 loss to division rival Pittsburgh.  And they have another division rival in Cleveland on deck.  I don’t see them showing up at all this week as it will be hard for them to get motivated to face the Jets.  And even if they do, they aren’t good enough to hang with this hot Jets team playing their best football of the season. 

The Bengals have 13 straight losses since the end of last year.  They’ve also lost 18 of 19 overall, the worst stretch in franchise history.  Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Cincinnati) - a cold team having lost eight or more of their last 10 games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS since 1983.  The Bengals are 0-7 ATS in home games off a division loss over the last three seasons.  Take the Jets Sunday. 

15* 49ers/Ravens Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Francisco +6 

The Baltimore Ravens couldn’t possibly be more overvalued than they are right now off five straight blowout wins and covers.  Now they are being asked to lay 6 points to what I believe is neck-and-neck with Baltimore as the best team in the NFL in the San Francisco 49ers.  It’s too much, and there’s a great chance this game is decided by one score either way. 

The Ravens got two non-offensive touchdowns against Seattle to start this streak.  Then they had a bye and caught New England in a good spot.  Then they faced an awful Cincinnati team before beating up on a bad Houston defense.  And last week they beat up on an overrated Rams team.  They will meet their match this week. 

The 49ers have the best defense in the NFL.  They rank 1st in total defense in giving up just 248.0 yards per game while also allowing just 14.8 points per game.  Nothing has come easy against this San Francisco defense, which is loaded with first-round draft picks along the front seven and has the top-ranked pass defense in the league, giving up just 136.9 passing yards per game. 

The 49ers have been great offensively when George Kittle and Emanuel Sanders have been healthy.  They have scored 36 and 37 points in back-to-back wins over Arizona and Green Bay.  And Kittle just returned against the Packers last week and made a huge difference in their 37-8 win.  The 49ers held Aaron Rodgers and company to just 198 total yards on 65 plays, an average of 3.05 yards per play.  And it’s worth noting the Ravens lost starting center Matt Skura to a season-ending knee injury against the Rams last week.  Skura is the QB of the offensive line and makes all the calls. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Baltimore) - an excellent offensive team average 27 or more points pre game, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Baltimore) - after having won six or seven of their last eight games, a team that wins 75% or more of their games on the season in the 2nd half of the season are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This line should be closer to Baltimore -3.  Roll with the 49ers Sunday. 

15* Browns/Steelers AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -1 

The Cleveland Browns played the toughest schedule in the entire NFL in the first half of the season.  Now their schedule has lightened up and the Browns have won and covered three in a row.  They will prove that they are better than the Steelers finally this season by sweeping the season series. 

The Browns won 21-7 two weeks ago as 3-point home favorites.  They dominated and forced four turnovers in the win.  Obviously, the Steelers want revenge, but they don’t have the personnel to get it.  The Browns are far and away the better team in this matchup in 2019. 

The Steelers have a dreadful offense that has scored 17, 7 and 16 points the last three weeks.  They are going to Devlin Hodges over Mason Rudolph at quarterback, but it’s not an upgrade.  Hodges’ 24-17 win at the Chargers was extremely misleading.  He only averaged 6.6 per attempt and totaled 132 passing yards.  The Chargers gave that game away with turnovers and outgained the Steelers by 92 yards.  And Hodgers is being looked at as the savior last week in leading the 16-10 win over the Bengals after replacing Rudolph.  But it’s the 0-11 Bengals, who have lost 18 of their last 19 overall. 

The Browns have outgained four straight opponents and are a very good team if they don’t beat themselves.  They aren’t beating themselves as they have cleaned up the turnovers and penalties.  And we saw the same thing last year with the Browns finishing the season strong after a slow start.  They have one of the most talented offenses in the NFL, and their defense is good enough to shut down an awful Pitt offense again. 

A big reason this Pittsburgh offense has struggled and why they’re playing musical chairs at quarterback is because they don’t have their full plethora of weapons.  Both JuJu Smith-Shuster and James Conner aren’t expected to play this week.  Plus, center Maurkice Pouncey is serving the second of his two-game suspension following the Myles Garrett/Mason Rudolph incident.  Not having the QB of their offensive line is a big loss.  And the books almost never factor in the loss of a center to injury, even thought it’s one of the most important positions in the NFL. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Pittsburgh) - revenging a loss vs. opponent of 14 points or more, winning between 51% & 60% of their games on the season are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS since 1983.  The Browns are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Browns Sunday. 

20* NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons +7 

The Atlanta Falcons are being left for dead now after losing 22-35 at home to the Tampa Bay Bucs last week.  It’s the perfect time to ‘buy low’ on them and trust that they’ll get back to playing the same kind of football they were the two weeks before losing to the Bucs. 

We saw the Falcons come out of their bye week and crush the Saints 26-9 as 14-point road underdogs.  Then we saw them back it up with a 29-3 win at Carolina as 4.5-point dogs to prove it was no fluke.  I think off those two huge upset road wins, the Falcons simply fell flat last week in the role of the favorite against a Bucs team that had lost five of their previous six coming in. 

Now, back at home on Thanksgiving Day and up against their biggest rivals, the Falcons will be giving a max effort tonight.  And when they are dialed in and focused, they are capable of beating anyone in the NFL as we’ve seen.  Look for them to give the Saints a run for their money tonight. 

The Saints are overvalued due to their 9-2 record this season.  They have simply been the kings of winning close games as the Saints are 6-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  And this game is likely to decided by a touchdown or less as well, meaning that we are getting great value on the Falcons here as 7-point home dogs. 

Atlanta really missed Devonta Freeman at running back last week against the Bucs.  They couldn’t get anything going on the ground without him, and he’s also a huge threat in the passing game.  The Falcons were able to rush for 143 yards the last time they faced the Saints and that took a lot of pressure off Matt Ryan.  Look for them to get back to running the ball this week after attempting just 19 rushes last week compared to 34 in that win over the Saints. 

New Orleans was lucky to escape with a 34-31 win over the Panthers last week.  The Panthers couldn’t punch in first and goal in the final minutes, and then missed a chip shot field goal.  The Saints went down and kicked a game-winner as time expired.  They only outgained the Panthers by 67 yards.  And in their previous two games, they were outgained by 7 yards by the Falcons and by 6 yards by the Bucs. 

Series history of games played at Atlanta shows that there’s a ton of value on the Falcons +7.  Indeed, the Saints haven’t won by more than 6 points over the Falcons in Atlanta since 2007.  That’s 11 meetings and zero wins for the Saints by more than 6 points.  That makes for a perfect 11-0 system backing the Falcons pertaining to this 7-point spread. 

Plays against road teams (New Orleans) - revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more, after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  And it’s a huge advantage for the Falcons to be staying at home after playing a home game last week so there’s no travel for them on this short week.  Bet the Falcons Thursday. 

15* Bears/Lions NFC North ANNIHILATOR on Detroit +4.5 

I realize the Detroit Lions could be down to third-string quarterback David Blough if Jeff Driskel is unable to go.  And while I liked Blough at Purdue and believe he looked pretty solid in the preseason, this is more of a play against Chicago than a play on Detroit than anything. 

This line has moved from Detroit -1.5 all the way to Chicago -4.5, which is a 6-point adjustment.  I’d understand that adjustment if it was from Stafford to Driskel, but not from Driskel to possibly Blough.  This is an overcorrection, and the value is clearly on the Lions at home.  The books are clearly going to need the Lions, and I like being on the books’ side in this situation. 

The fact of the matter is the Bears still have one of the worst offenses in the NFL.  They are scoring 17.1 points per game and averaging 269.3 yards per game on the season.  They have scored 20 or fewer points in five straight games coming in.  You just can’t trust the Bears to lay this many points with their dreadful offense. 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Lions, who were upset by the Redskins last week as 4-point road favorites.  But that was a very misleading final as the Lions outgained the Redskins by 134 yards but gave the game away with four turnovers.  Now the betting public wants nothing to do with the Lions after they just lost to the dreadful Redskins, but nine times out of 10 with their stats they would have won that game. 

In fact, the Lions have actually outgained four of their last five opponents, including in all three of their road games against the Raiders, Bears and Redskins.  They outgained the Giants at home and beat them, and took the Cowboys to the wire in a 27-35 loss in the only game they were outgained. 

Four weeks ago, the Lions played in Chicago with Driskel at quarterback and lost 13-20.  But that was a hugely misleading final.  They outgained the Bears by 131 yards in that game.  They held Mitch Trubisky and Chicago’s offense to just 216 yards while gaining 357 yards themselves.  They clearly should have won that game.  They were 6-point road dogs in that contest, and now they are 4.5-point home dogs in the rematch.  The line should be closer to PK when you adjust for home-field advantage. 

A whopping 12 of the last 15 meetings in this series were decided by one score.  And this game is likely to go down to the wire as well, so getting +4.5 points is a nice value.  And keep in mind the Bears are just 5-6 this season with only two of their wins coming by more than one score.  Plus, 10 of Detroit’s 11 games this season have been decided by one score, so they are much better than their 3-7-1 record would indicate. 

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Chicago) - after having won two of their last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 32-8 (80%) ATS since 1983.  The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Roll with the Lions Thursday. 

25* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Ravens/Rams OVER 46.5 

Offensive coordinator Greg Roman has worked wonders with yet another dual-threat quarterback in his first season with the Ravens this year.  Roman was the coordinator for Colin Kaepernick back when he was decent, and he was the coordinator for Tyrod Taylor the last time the Bills made the playoffs.  Now he has a QB in Lamar Jackson who is actually pretty good. 

The results cannot even be debated.  Roman is the dual-threat QB guru.  The Ravens lead the NFL in scoring offense at 34.1 points per game and are 2nd in total offense at 428.6 yards per game.  Jack is completing 66.3% of his passes for 2,258 yards with 19 touchdowns against five interceptions while averaging 8.1 per attempt.  He also leads the team in rushing with 781 yards and six scores and is well on his way to winning the MVP award. 

The Rams were on fire offensively to start the season.  They scored 27 or more points in four of their first five games.  But then injuries took their toll to the offensive line and receivers, and they haven’t been as explosive since.  However, they are much healthier on the offensive line now, and they get both Brandon Cooks and Robert Woods back this week.  Jared Goff will now have his full compliment of weapons for the first time since the beginning of the season.  And the Rams should get back to putting up points in bunches. 

I know both defenses have played well of late, but a lot of that has to do with going up against some bad offenses.  The Rams have played the Bears, Steelers and Bengals the last three weeks.  The Ravens have played the Texans, Bengals and Patriots the last three weeks.  This number is lower than it should be because the defenses have been playing well of late.  I expect the offenses to win out in this showdown as these are still just average defenses and well above average offenses. 

The Rams are 9-0 OVER in their last nine home games after allowing 4 or fewer yards per play in their previous game.  Plays on the OVER on road teams where the total is 42.5 to 49 points (Baltimore) - an excellent offensive team that scores 27 or more points per game, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games are 42-13 (76.4%) since 1983.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday. 

25* NBC Sunday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers -3 

The San Francisco 49ers are among the top three teams in the NFL in my opinion.  They are neck and neck with the Patriots and Ravens, and the numbers show it.  The 49ers are 8-2 with a +140 point differential, and the Ravens are 8-2 with a +145 differential and the Patriots are 9-1 with a +179 differential.  Fourth place is Minnesota at +84, and 5th place is Green Bay at +45. 

As you can see, the top three teams are head and shoulders ahead of everyone else.  And this number of 49ers -3 is basically saying these are equal teams when giving the 49ers 3 points for home-field advantage.  And they’re not even close to equal.  The 49ers have outscored their opponents by 140 points this season, while the Packers have only outscored theirs by 45.  The Packers have simply been fortunate in close games. 

The key stat here is the 49ers are far and away the better defensive team.  The 49ers are 2nd in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 253.0 yards per game.  They are also 2nd in scoring defense at 15.5 points per game allowed.  The Packers are 28th in total defense, giving up 384.7 yards per game.  Only the Dolphins, Lions, Cardinals and Bengals have been worse, so they are in some pretty poor company. 

Another big key is the 49ers get George Kittle back this week.  There’s a reason they struggled with the Seahawks and Cardinals the last two games.  Being division opponents definitely is one reason, but the other is the 49ers were without Kittle.  He is worth more to the point spread than any non-QB in the NFL.  He set the NFL record for receiving yards by a tight end last year and is far and away Jimmy G’s favorite target.  The 49ers in general are more healthy than they were for those two games against the Seahawks and Cardinals. 

Plays on favorites (San Francisco) - after having won three of their last four games against an opponent that’s a hot team having won eight or more of their last 10 games are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Aaron Rodgers will struggle against the best defense he’s seen yet this season.  Bet the 49ers Sunday. 

15* Cowboys/Patriots Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas +6 

The Dallas Cowboys have the No. 1 offense in the NFL.  They are averaging 444.6 yards per game on the season as Dak Prescott is having an MVP year, and Zeke Elliott is one of the best backs in the NFL.  The Cowboys will test the Patriots’ defense like they haven’t been tested yet this year. 

Tom Brady is dealing with an elbow injury that saw him wind up on the injury report this week.  And Brady is going to be without two receivers in Mohamed Sanu and Phillip Dorsett.  This Patriots offense has been struggling due to a lack of weapons, plus Brady finally showing his age.  This is a lot of points for the Patriots to have to lay with an offense as lackluster as theirs. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (New England) - after having won six or seven of their last eight games, a top level team that wins 75% or more of their games on the season in the second half of the season are 29-10 (74.4%) ATS over the last five years. 

The Cowboys are 6-4 on the season with three of their losses coming by 2, 2 and 4 points.  They have only been beaten once by more than 6 points in their 10 games this season.  The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last seven November games.  Jason Garrett is 17-8 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of Dallas.  Garrett is 12-4 ATS in road games off a road game as the coach of the Cowboys.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday. 

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Tennessee Titans -3 

The Tennessee Titans got hot in the 2nd half of the season last year and they’re doing it again this year.  They have won three of their last four behind the great play of Ryan Tannehill.  He is completing 71.3% of his passes and averaging 8.5 yards per attempt while being a huge upgrade over Marcus Mariota. 

The Titans pulled off the huge 35-32 upset win over the Chiefs two weeks ago at home.  Now they are coming off a bye week and ready to keep their momentum going as they are just one game back of first place in the AFC South.  They have a lot to play for the rest of the way now. 

The Jaguars are reeling after back-to-back blowout losses to Houston by 23 and Indianapolis by 20.  They could not stop the run against either team.  They gave up 216 rushing yards to the Texans and 264 to the Colts.  That’s bad news for the Jaguars having to face Derrick Henry this week. 

The Titans rushed for 225 yards on the Chiefs led by 188 and two scores from Henry.  This is the time of year when Henry came on strong last season, and he’s poised to do it against in 2019.  The Titans also want revenge from a 20-7 road loss to the Jaguars in their first meeting this season.  The Titans actually outgained the Jaguars by 48 yards in that game.  And that was back when Mariota was still starting and Jalen Ramsey was actually playing for the Jaguars.  These are two completely different teams now. 

Tennessee is still 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Jacksonville.  The Titans have rushed for an average of 160 yards per game in those five meetings.  And I expect them to top 200 rushing yards in this game with Tannehill also continuing his great play.  The Titans are 27-13 ATS in their last 40 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less.  The Titans are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Jaguars.  Bet the Titans Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Carolina Panthers +10 

The Carolina Panthers are in do-or-die mode now.  They are 5-5 on the season and needing a win to stay in the playoff race.  I know I’m going to get a big effort from the Panthers today with their season on the line and playing a division rival.  I love getting double-digits with the Panthers in this spot. 

This is the perfect week to ‘buy low’ on the Panthers.  They are coming off a 3-29 home loss to the Atlanta Falcons.  But that was a misleading final because they were only outgained by 2 yards.  Conversely, it’s time to ’sell high’ on the Saints, who are coming off a 34-17 blowout win over the Bucs.  But that was also a misleading final because the Saints were outgained by 6 yards.  The Bucs were only down 10 and Jameis Winston threw a pick-6 in the final minutes to make the score worse than it was.  We are getting line value now because of those two misleading finals. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (New Orleans) - after having won six or seven of their last eight games, a top level team winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 29-11 (72.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.   

The Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.  The underdog is 9-1 ATS int he last 10 meetings in this series.  Carolina is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 trips to New Orleans.  Take the Panthers Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Giants +6.5 

The New York Giants are coming off their bye week.  They are looking to finish the season strong to build for next year.  They already have their QB of the future, so they aren’t looking to tank.  And that’s one of the biggest misconceptions about the NFL today is that teams tank.  Players aren’t looking to lose their jobs by poor performance.  They show up every Sunday. 

I like the fact that Mitch Trubisky is starting over Chase Daniel.  It helps our bet here.  Trubisky is averaging 5.6 yards per attempt.  The Bears are scoring just 16.9 points per game on the season.  They are averaging 263 yards per game as well.  They can’t be trusted to lay a number like this to many teams in the NFL, especially a Giants team coming off their bye. 

Jones has a 9-to-1 TD/INT ratio in his last three games overall.  And I think it’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Giants, who have lost six straight coming in.  We saw the Falcons respond from their bye at 1-7 and dominate their two games out of the bye.  I’m not saying the Giants will be as dominant, but they will put their best foot forward this week off their bye. 

Plays on road underdogs or PK (NY Giants) - off five or more consecutive losses, in November games are 53-22 (70.7%) ATS since 1983.  Teams on extended losing streaks are consistently undervalued this late in the seasons.  The Giants are 6-0 ATS in their last six games on grass.  New York is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games.  The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Take the Giants Sunday. 

20* Colts/Texans AFC South No-Brainer on Indianapolis +3.5 

The Indianapolis Colts are 6-2 this season in games started and finished by Jacoby Brissett this season.  They lost the only two games he didn’t play the entire way to the Steelers and Dolphins.  But they got him back last week, and the Colts promptly crushed the Jaguars 33-13 at home. 

Brissett wasn’t asked to do much because the Colts ran all over the Jaguars for 264 rushing yards.  That’s bad news for the Texans, which just gave up 263 rushing yards to the Ravens last week.  The Texans lost that game 7-41 and were outgained by 259 yards.  This is a team that I just don’t trust now now because they lost J.J. Watt to a season-ending injury and their offensive and defensive lines are terrible. 

Yes, the Texans have the flash with Watson and his receivers, but the Colts have the substance.  The Colts can sustain success because they have one of the league’s best offensive lines and also one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Colts are 11th in total defense at 325.6 yards per game while the Texans are 25th at 374.4 yards per game allowed.  And keep in mind the Colts were banged up on D for much of the season but are as healthy as they’ve been now.  And the Texans are banged up on D now. 

The Colts own the Texans, going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Indianapolis is 6-1 SU & 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven trips to Houston.  The Texans are 0-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Colts are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.  Indianapolis is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. AFC South opponents.  Houston is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 vs. a team with a winning record overall.  Bet the Colts Thursday. 

25* MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Kansas City Chiefs -4 

The Kansas City Chiefs just got Patrick Mahomes back from injury last week.  He played as good as he could have and the Chiefs deserved to win, but special teams mistakes cost them in a 32-35 road loss to the Titans.  It’s a Titans team that just simply has their number and has beaten some very good teams at home the last few seasons. 

The Chiefs had 530 total yards on the Titans and obviously should have won in a very misleading loss.  They outgained the Titans by 159 yards.  Mahomes went 36-of-50 passing for 446 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions.  He has his full compliment of weapons now and the Chiefs will be tough to tame the rest of the way.  The Chiefs are averaging 28.4 points and 404.4 yards per game this season, and that includes 2.5 games where they were missing Mahomes.  I expect them to get 30-plus Monday. 

Philip Rivers just hasn’t looked right all season.  He is finally starting to show his age as his arm strength is awful.  He went 17-of-31 passing for 207 yards with 3 interceptions against the Raiders last week and it would have been 5 INT's if not for two that were called back by penalties.  The Chargers are scoring just 20.7 points per game this season.  While the Chargers have a solid defense, their offense is holding them back, and I don’t think they can match the Chiefs score for score in this one. 

I like the fact that the Chiefs are coming off a loss, which makes them even more motivated this week.  The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games off a loss.  Kansas City is 4-0 ATS in its last four games after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game.  The Chiefs are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 vs. AFC West opponents.  Kansas City is 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with the Chargers in games played away from Arrowhead Stadium.  Bet the Chiefs Monday. 

20* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona Cardinals +11 

I like the spot for the Arizona Cardinals this week.  They want revenge from a 25-28 loss as 10.5-point dogs to the 49ers just two weeks ago.  And after losing by only a field goal, they are now catching 11 points in the rematch.  It’s simply too much. 

The Cardinals found something in the 2nd half with their hurry-up offense that gave the 49ers problems.  They gained 357 yards on the 49ers' vaunted defense, which was a season-high allowed by the 49ers.  Look for them to go to the hurry-up sooner in this one to try and slow down that San Francisco pass rush. 

The 49ers will be on a short week after going into overtime against the Seahawks Monday Night.  They will be tired, and I think they could suffer a hangover from that defeat.  Their bubble was burst as their unbeaten season is now over.  That just screams hangover. 

Plus, the 49ers had a ton of guys go down with injury in that loss to the Seahawks.  They lost two defensive linemen in Ronald Blair and D.J. Jones.  Center Weston Richburg left the game with a hand injury.  WR Emmanuel Sanders left with a rib injury, and RB Matt Brida left with an ankle injury.  LT Joe Staley just returned last week only to go down with a finger injury that will sideline him.  George Kittle sat out that game with a knee injury and may not be ready to return.  The 49ers are as vulnerable as they have been all season due to all these injuries. 

The 49ers are clearly overvalued due to their record as they have failed to cover the spread in each of their last two games.  Now they are double-digit favorites here against a division rival when they shouldn’t be.  Arizona has quietly gone 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall, yet they still get no respect from the books. 

The 49ers are 15-29 ATS in their last 44 games following a Monday Night Football game.  Arizona is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 against good defensive teams that allow 260 or fewer yards per game.  The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in San Francisco.  Arizona is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 division road games in a rematch.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Ravens -4.5 

The Baltimore Ravens are clearly one of the best teams in the NFL.  Yet, they continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers because bettors simply don’t want to buy into Lamar Jackson.  The fact of the matter is Jackson is a good quarterback and an MVP candidate.  And until bettors believe it, they’ll continue to be undervalued. 

The Ravens have won five straight and covered three straight coming in.  That includes a 14-point win at Seattle, a 17-point home win over New England, and a 36-point demolition of Cincinnati on the road.  This team is hungry for more and smells blood in the water.  Now the Ravens have the inside track to the No. 1 seed in the AFC with the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Patriots. 

Jackson leads a Ravens offense that is 1st in scoring at 33.3 points per game and 2nd in total offense at 421.7 yards per game.  Offensive coordinator Greg Romans in his his first year with the team.  Romans is the best dual-threat QB coordinator in the history of the NFL.  He was responsible for Colin Kaepernick’s rise with the 49ers, and he also led Tyrod Taylor and the Buffalo Bills to the playoffs a few years back.  Now he has the best dual-threat he’s ever had in Jackson. 

Defensively, the Ravens started the season pretty rough.  But since getting healthy on that side of the ball with the return of star CB Jimmy Smith and the trade for CB Marcus Peters, the Ravens have been dominant defensively here down the stretch.  The Ravens have allowed just 17.8 points per game and only 303 yards per game during their five-game winning streak. 

Teams coming off a bye following a London game are 0-6 ATS this season.  And I worry about the Texans being fat and happy following their 26-3 win over the Jaguars.  But that was a misleading win as the Jaguars gave the game way with four turnovers and simply couldn’t capitalize in the red zone.  Almost all the turnovers came deep in Houston territory. 

J.J. Watt was one of the most destructive forces in the NFL this season before going down with a season-ending injury a few weeks back.  Now this is a Houston defense that is going to struggle to stop anyone the rest of the season.  They gave up 30 points and 383 yards to the Colts in a 23-30 loss three games back, gave up 24 points and 378 yards to the Raiders in a fortunate 27-24 home win two games ago, and the Jaguars had 356 total yards on them last time out despite only scoring 3 points.  This high-powered Ravens offense is going to have it way with this Houston defense. 

Houston is 0-6 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Texans are 16-30 ATS in their last 46 games off an upset win as an underdog.  Houston is 2-7 ATS in its last nine vs. a team with a winning record overall.  Roll with the Ravens Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 

The Jacksonville Jaguars are off a bye following their trip to London.  Look for them to put forth their best effort of the season today, especially with QB Nick Foles returning as their starting quarterback.  Gardner Minshew did a good job of holding down the fort while he was gone, but Foles is still clearly the better starter. 

The Jaguars are about as healthy as they’ve been all season now too after the bye.  The same cannot be said for the Indianapolis Colts, who are still without T.Y. Hilton, and they are 0-7 in their last seven games in which Hilton has sat.  They simply lack weapons at receiver without him and are too predictable.  He is one of the most underrated receivers in the NFL. 

I think the Jaguars come in undervalued after their blowout loss to the Texans in London.  Well, that game was much closer than the final score would indicate.  But the Jaguars gave it away with four turnovers as Minshew had his worst game as a starter, which ultimately led to Foles replacing him this week. 

The Colts are coming off a 12-16 upset loss to the Dolphins as 11-point favorites.  They managed just 300 yards on Miami and committed three turnovers.  QB Jacoby Brissett is going to give it a go this week, but he is clearly still going to be slowed by a knee injury and won’t be 100%.  And now that he doesn’t have TY Hilton, he’s going to struggle against a solid Jaguars defense. 

Plays on underdogs or PK (Jacksonville) - off a loss by 21 or more points against an opponent that scored 3 points or less in the first half of their previous game are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. AFC opponents.  The Colts are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Jaguars Sunday. 

20* Steelers/Browns AFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland -2.5 

The Cleveland Browns have played the 4th-toughest schedule in the NFL.  That’s a big reason why they haven’t lived up to the hype at 3-6 on the season.  But they’re not dead yet.  They turned things around with a huge 19-16 home win over the Bills last week, and now they have a very easy schedule the rest of the way to make a run in the second half of the season. 

The Browns are in a stretch here of four of five home games.  They host the Steelers, Dolphins and Bengals coming up, and they have winnable road games against the Steelers, Cardinals and Bengals.  They also host the Ravens.  They could conceivably run the table against this schedule as they will likely only be underdogs twice, and small dogs at that. 

While the Browns are only getting outgunned by 7.7 yards per game this season, the Steelers are getting outgained by 49.4 yards per game.  The Browns aren’t as bad as their 3-6 record, and the Steelers aren’t as good as their 5-4 record.  I believe the oddsmakers are warranted in making the Browns the favorites in this game despite having the worse record. 

It’s also worth noting that the Steelers have played a home-heavy schedule this year with six home games compared to only three road games.  They have just one road win all season, and that was a fluky win over the Chargers.  They finish the season playing five of their final seven games on the highway and their true colors will show here down the stretch. 

It’s a Steelers offense that I just cannot trust with Mason Rudolph at quarterback.  The Steelers rank 28th in total offense at 288.8 yards per game.  They were very fortunate to win each of their last two games as they managed just 273 yards against the Colts and 273 yards against the Rams as well.  The Steelers have forced a league-high 25 turnovers defensively, and there’s no way they can keep up this pace.  They have forced multiple turnovers in a whopping eight straight games coming in.  I don’t trust teams that rely on turnovers. 

Plays against any team (Pittsburgh) - off an upset win as a home underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season are 22-3 (88%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Browns Thursday. 

15* Seahawks/49ers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco -6 

The San Francisco 49ers are 8-0 and nothing has been fluky at all about their start.  They are outscoring opponents by 16.7 points per game on the season.  They rank 7th in total offense at 390.2 yards per game and 1st in total defense at 241.0 yards per game.  They are outgaining opponents by 149.2 yards per game on the season, which is the best mark in the entire NFL.  Only two of their eight wins have come by less than 9 points. 

Now the 49ers come in on extra rest after beating the Cardinals last Thursday.  That extra rest should allow for some key pieces to come back as T Joe Staley and FB Kyle Juszczyk are both expected to be ready to go by Monday.  Fellow T Mike McGlinchey has also been upgraded to questionable, and getting at least two of these three guys back will make the offense even more potent.  They do lose LB Kwon Alexander to a season-ending injury, but they will get back more than they lose this week. 

The Seahawks are 7-2, but their record is certainly fluky, and they are starting to run out of gas since they haven’t had a bye week yet.  The Seahawks are only outscoring teams by 2.0 points per game and outgaining them by 14.2 yards per game this season.  Seattle has gone 6-1 in games decided by a TD or less, getting extremely fortunate in close games, including narrow wins over bad teams in Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Atlanta and Tampa.   

Seattle has a leaky stop unit that ranks 25th in total defense at 380.2 yards per game and 22nd in scoring defense at 25.6 points per game.  The 49ers rank 2nd in yards per play (4.5) allowed defensively, while the Seahawks are 30th in yards per play (6.2) allowed.  And that right there is going to be the difference in this game. 

The Seahawks have been relying on Russell Wilson to move the football through the air.  Well, he hasn’t seen a pass rush like the one the 49ers will throw at him.  And he certainly hasn’t faced a passing defense as good as the 49ers.  San Francisco ranks 1st in the NFL with just 138.1 passing yards per game allowed. 

The 49ers have the 2nd-ranked rushing offense in the NFL at 171.1 yards per game.  With FB Juszczyk back paving the way for their RB’s, this rushing attack will get even more potent moving forward.  The Seahawks rank 22nd in the NFL in yards per carry (4.7) allowed this season, so the 49ers should be able to move the football at will.  That will open things up for the play-action passing game with Jimmy G, who is coming off his best game of the season with 317 passing yards and four touchdowns against the Cardinals last week. 

The 49ers are 27-7 ATS in their last 34 Monday Night Football games.  We last saw them blitz the Browns 31-3 on Monday Night Football earlier this season.  San Francisco is 4-1-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  Seattle is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  Bet the 49ers Monday. 

25* NBC Sunday Night PARLAY OF THE YEAR on Cowboys -3/UNDER 48 

Reasons for Cowboys -3: 

The Dallas Cowboys have shown what they are capable of when fully healthy at the beginning of the season and here of late.  They had some injuries on the offensive line and at receiver that cost them a three-game losing streak in which they lost two games by 2 points each.  But in their five wins all five have come by double-digits. 

The Cowboys’ last two games have been very impressive.  They beat the Eagles 37-10 as 3-point home favorites and held them to just 283 total yards while forcing four turnovers.  The Eagles have gone on to blow out the Bills and the Bears since.  Last week they won 37-18 at the Giants and held them to 271 yards while forcing three turnovers.  They outgained the Giants by 158 yards. 

In fact, the Cowboys have outgained seven of their eight opponents this season, which is the sign of a dominant team.  The Cowboys rank 1st in total offense at 436.8 yards per gam and 1st in yards per play at 6.7 per play.  Dak Prescott is having a huge year, and Zeke running behind a healthy offensive line has been downright scary.  Defensively, the rank 5th in scoring (17.8 points/game) and 6th in total defense (318.1 yards/game).  They are outgaining teams by 118.7 yards per game. 

I just don’t trust Kirk Cousins in primetime games.  Cousins is 6-15 in his career in primetime games.  He is 1-6 in his career against the Cowboys.  Dak Prescott is 15-5 in primetime games.  Prescott is 5-0 straight up against Cousins.  And Cousins is going to be without his security blanked in Adam Thielen, who reaggravated his hamstring injury last week against the Chiefs.  The Vikings managed just 308 total yards against a bad Chiefs defense last week in an upset loss against Matt Moore. 

The Cowboys are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season with their only loss coming to the Packers.  It was a fluky loss as the Cowboys outgained the Packers by 228 yards.  The Vikings are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five November games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The favorite is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday. 

Reasons for UNDER 48: 

Both the Vikings and Cowboys love to run the football and play at slow paces while controlling time of possession.  The Vikings are 3rd in the NFL in rushing offense at 153.0 yards per game, while the Cowboys are 4th at 149.2 yards per game.  Running the ball will keep the clock moving and benefit the UNDER in this game. 

Both defenses have been great at stopping the run this season.  The Vikings are 8th against the run, allowing 95.8 yards per game.  The Cowboys are 10th against the run, yielding just 97.2 yards per game.  Yards will be harder to come by on the ground for both teams than they’re accustomed to. 

Both teams have elite defenses.  The Vikings are 4th in scoring defense at 17.6 points per game, while the Cowboys are 5th at 17.8 points per game allowed.  The Cowboys are 6th in total defense at 318.1 yards per game, while the Vikings are 8th at 320.9 yards per game.   

These are the two best defenses that both offenses will have faced this season with the exception of perhaps when the Cowboys played the Saints on a road, a game that saw 22 combined points in a 12-10 victory by New Orleans.  The best defense Minnesota has faced was Chicago, and that game also saw 22 combined points in a 6-16 road loss to the Bears. 

Kirk Cousins has just been awful in primetime games and and against the Cowboys, and you can look above to see those records.  And he’s going to be without Adam Thielen, taking away what I believe is the most important weapon on the Vikings because he is Cousins’ security blanket on 3rd downs.  The Cowboys can focus their attention on stopping Stefon Diggs now.  Their next-leading receiver after Diggs, Thielen and Dalvin Cook is Irv Smith Jr. who has just 19 receptions for 207 yards this year. 

Minnesota is 20-8 UNDER in its last 28 games off an upset loss as a road favorite.  Dallas is 13-4 UNDER in its last 17 home games after scoring 30 points or more in two straight games.  Mike Zimmer is 9-2 UNDER as a road dog of 3 points or less as the coach of the Vikings.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Vikings last 11 vs. NFC opponents.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last fie meetings.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

25* NBC Sunday Night PARLAY OF THE YEAR on Cowboys -3/UNDER 48 

Reasons for Cowboys -3: 

The Dallas Cowboys have shown what they are capable of when fully healthy at the beginning of the season and here of late.  They had some injuries on the offensive line and at receiver that cost them a three-game losing streak in which they lost two games by 2 points each.  But in their five wins all five have come by double-digits. 

The Cowboys’ last two games have been very impressive.  They beat the Eagles 37-10 as 3-point home favorites and held them to just 283 total yards while forcing four turnovers.  The Eagles have gone on to blow out the Bills and the Bears since.  Last week they won 37-18 at the Giants and held them to 271 yards while forcing three turnovers.  They outgained the Giants by 158 yards. 

In fact, the Cowboys have outgained seven of their eight opponents this season, which is the sign of a dominant team.  The Cowboys rank 1st in total offense at 436.8 yards per gam and 1st in yards per play at 6.7 per play.  Dak Prescott is having a huge year, and Zeke running behind a healthy offensive line has been downright scary.  Defensively, the rank 5th in scoring (17.8 points/game) and 6th in total defense (318.1 yards/game).  They are outgaining teams by 118.7 yards per game. 

I just don’t trust Kirk Cousins in primetime games.  Cousins is 6-15 in his career in primetime games.  He is 1-6 in his career against the Cowboys.  Dak Prescott is 15-5 in primetime games.  Prescott is 5-0 straight up against Cousins.  And Cousins is going to be without his security blanked in Adam Thielen, who reaggravated his hamstring injury last week against the Chiefs.  The Vikings managed just 308 total yards against a bad Chiefs defense last week in an upset loss against Matt Moore. 

The Cowboys are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season with their only loss coming to the Packers.  It was a fluky loss as the Cowboys outgained the Packers by 228 yards.  The Vikings are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five November games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The favorite is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday. 

Reasons for UNDER 48: 

Both the Vikings and Cowboys love to run the football and play at slow paces while controlling time of possession.  The Vikings are 3rd in the NFL in rushing offense at 153.0 yards per game, while the Cowboys are 4th at 149.2 yards per game.  Running the ball will keep the clock moving and benefit the UNDER in this game. 

Both defenses have been great at stopping the run this season.  The Vikings are 8th against the run, allowing 95.8 yards per game.  The Cowboys are 10th against the run, yielding just 97.2 yards per game.  Yards will be harder to come by on the ground for both teams than they’re accustomed to. 

Both teams have elite defenses.  The Vikings are 4th in scoring defense at 17.6 points per game, while the Cowboys are 5th at 17.8 points per game allowed.  The Cowboys are 6th in total defense at 318.1 yards per game, while the Vikings are 8th at 320.9 yards per game.   

These are the two best defenses that both offenses will have faced this season with the exception of perhaps when the Cowboys played the Saints on a road, a game that saw 22 combined points in a 12-10 victory by New Orleans.  The best defense Minnesota has faced was Chicago, and that game also saw 22 combined points in a 6-16 road loss to the Bears. 

Kirk Cousins has just been awful in primetime games and and against the Cowboys, and you can look above to see those records.  And he’s going to be without Adam Thielen, taking away what I believe is the most important weapon on the Vikings because he is Cousins’ security blanket on 3rd downs.  The Cowboys can focus their attention on stopping Stefon Diggs now.  Their next-leading receiver after Diggs, Thielen and Dalvin Cook is Irv Smith Jr. who has just 19 receptions for 207 yards this year. 

Minnesota is 20-8 UNDER in its last 28 games off an upset loss as a road favorite.  Dallas is 13-4 UNDER in its last 17 home games after scoring 30 points or more in two straight games.  Mike Zimmer is 9-2 UNDER as a road dog of 3 points or less as the coach of the Vikings.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Vikings last 11 vs. NFC opponents.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last fie meetings.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Rams -3.5 

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Rams this week.  The Rams are coming off a bye following their win over the Bengals in London.  They’ll be rested and ready to go today.  Road favorites off a bye are 75-38 (66%) in the last 113 tries.  The Rams are 8-1 SU and scoring 36 points per game with extra time to prepare under Sean McVey. 

The Rams have been dominant defensively since trading for Jalen Ramsey to give their secondary a huge boost.  They gave up just 10 points at Atlanta and just 10 points to the Bengals while outscoring those two teams by a combined 41 points, or an average of 20.5 points per game. 

The Steelers are now getting too much respect from oddsmakers for their three-game winning streak.  It has come against the Chargers, Dolphins and Colts.  The Chargers gave the game away with three turnovers, the Dolphins gave the game away with four turnovers, and the Colts gave the game away with three turnovers.  Pittsburgh has been relying on turnovers all season. 

Well, the Rams have only committed one turnover in their last three games combined, so they aren’t a team that just gives the ball away.  The Steelers were lucky to have Jacoby Brissett get injured for the Colts early last week so they had to face Brian Hoyer instead.  And they still nearly lost as Adam Vinatieri missed a potential game-winning 41-yard field goal. 

I just don’t see how the Steelers can keep up on the scoreboard in this game because they don’t have the firepower to match Jared Goff and company.  The Steelers rank 28th in total offense at 290.8 yards per game.  Mason Rudolph clearly just isn’t very good, and their predictable offense is built around a short passing game with the majority of his pass attempts going to running backs.  The Steelers are averaging just 6.4 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 29th in the league.  They are also 26th in rushing offense at 88.4 yards per game.  Pittsburgh is unlikely to get James Conner back from a shoulder injury as he’s listed as doubtful. 

Sean McVay is a perfect 7-0 ATS against poor rushing teams that average 90 or fewer rushing yards per game as the coach of Los Angeles.  The Rams are winning by nearly 20 points per game in this spot.  This trend makes sense to me because teams that can’t run the ball consistently aren’t able to control the time of possession and keep the Rams’ high-powered offense off the field.  The Rams are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games and have been covering machines on the highway since McVey took over.  Bet the Rams Sunday. 

20* AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Oakland Raiders +1.5 

The Oakland Raiders have been undervalued all season.  Despite playing a brutal schedule with five straight games away from home, they have gone 4-4 SU & 5-3 ATS this season.  Give Jon Gruden and his players credit for taking a step forward this season and getting themselves into playoff contention midway through the season. 

While the Raiders have faced the 2nd-toughest schedule in the NFL this year, the Chargers have played the 23rd-ranked schedule.  That’s a difference of 21 spots in strength of schedule.  Yet the Chargers are just 4-5 on the season and on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs. 

I think the only reason the Chargers are favored in this game is because everyone assumes they are going to make a run in the second half of the season like they always seem to do.  They come in having won two in a row to start their run, and while their performance against the Packers was impressive, it was a Packers team that is one of the most overrated in the NFL with a leaky defense.  And they had no business beating the Bears, who outgained the Chargers by 157 yards and missed a last-second field goal. 

The Raiders have been competitive in every game except for their loss to the Chiefs back in Week 2 where they were outgained by 160 yards.  They haven’t been outgained by more than 83 yards in any other game this season.  And they are only getting outgained by 8 yards per game on the season. 

Derek Carr leads the NFL in completion percentage at 71.2% with a 13-to-4 TD/INT ratio.  And Josh Jacobs has given this offense an identity that they haven’t had in years.  Jacobs has rushed for 740 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 4.9 yards per carry.  This balanced attack has been tough for teams to tame here of late as the Raiders have scored at least 24 points in five straight games coming in. 

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA Chargers) - off an upset win by 14 points or more as a home underdog, after the first month of the season are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS since 1983.  The Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Bet the Raiders Thursday. 

20* Cowboys/Giants ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New York +7 

The Dallas Cowboys are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers here Monday night because they are coming off their bye week, and they went into their bye with a blowout home win over the Eagles.  But their bye week advantage is certainly negated some here because the Giants get an extra day of rest as well with this game being played on Monday Night Football. 

The Cowboys had lost three straight prior to that win over the Eagles.  And their other three wins came against the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins.  That was a Giants team in the season opener that wasn’t very good and was starting Eli Manning.  They have been a much better offensive football team since Daniel Jones took over at quarterback, and they are starting to get healthy. 

Jones has led the Giants to an average of 21.7 points per game in his six starts this season.  And keep in mind the Giants have been without Saquon Barkley, Evan Ingram, Golden Tate and Sterling Shepard at various times in those six games.  Now, he’ll have all four weapons healthy and playing in this game Monday night for the first time this season.  This is going to be a dangerous Giants offense moving forward with his Jones’ full compliment of weapons. 

The Cowboys have had offensive line injuries bite them once again this season.  Tyron Smith is back healthy, but both G Zack Martin and T La’el Collins are questionable heading into this game.  And while the Cowboys have put up some good numbers this season, it has come against the league’s 30th-ranked schedule.  The Giants have faced a much more difficult slate and will be out for revenge tonight at home. 

Dallas is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 road games off a home blowout win by 21 points or more.  New York is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of two consecutive games coming in. Pat Shurmur is 14-3 ATS after having lost five or six of his last seven games as a head coach.  Bet the Giants Monday. 

15* Browns/Broncos AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -3.5 

The Cleveland Browns have played the 4th-toughest schedule in the NFL this season.  They have played a brutal stretch of games here of late with five in a row against the Rams, Ravens, 49ers, Seahawks and Patriots who are a combined 32-7 this season.  It’s a big reason they are just 2-5 on the season. 

I believe the Browns are undervalued right now due to their record.  But the schedule gets a lot easier moving forward, starting with this showdown with the hapless Denver Broncos, who are 2-6 this season.  The Browns still believe they can make some noise, and they will be ‘all in’ this week to try and turn their season around and get a victory. 

The Broncos have to be deflated right now.  They led almost the entire way against the Colts last week, but lost on a last-second field goal by a final of 13-15.  They just keep losing close games, but they also have three losses by 8 points or more.  It’s a team that I think will find it hard to be motivated the rest of the way because they know they have no chance of catching the Chiefs in the division, while the Browns still have hope to win their division. 

Now the Broncos will give Brandon Allen his first career start after Joe Flacco went on injured receiver with a neck injury following that loss to the Colts last week.  “Honestly, I haven’t had too much work with him,” conceded Broncos top wideout Courtland Sutton.  That’s a bad sign for the Broncos this week, especially since they just traded away their other top weapon in Emmanuel Sanders.  I just can’t foresee their offense having very much success against Cleveland’s defense this week. 

Plays on road favorites (Cleveland) - off a road loss, in November games are 57-26 (68.7%) ATS since 1983.  The Broncos are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 home games.  Denver is 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games following a loss.  Their downward spiral continues this week against a highly motivated Browns team ready to bust out.  Roll with the Browns Sunday. 

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 

The Seattle Seahawks just don’t have the home-field advantage they used to.  They are 6-2 this season, but both of their losses this season came at home to Ravens & Saints.  Their two home wins this season each came by a single point over the Bengals and Rams.  They haven’t gotten margin at home yet this season, and they shouldn’t be laying 6 points here to the Bucs. 

The Seahawks have played the 23rd-toughest schedule in the NFL.  The Bucs are 2-5, but they have played the 2nd-toughest schedule in the NFL this season.  And they’ve been competitive in basically every game they’ve played.  The problem with them is turnovers.  They have committed 11 of them in their last two games yet still had a chance to win both.  If they just take care of the football, the Buccaneers can beat anyone. 

We saw that when they went on the road and upset the Rams 55-40 as 9-point dogs.  They also upset the Panthers on the road, and only lost to the Saints by 7 on the road.  Last week they lost 23-27 at Tennessee, but they deserved to win that game as they outgained the Titans by 143 yards.  Turnovers hurt them, but refs did them no favors either blowing a play dead that would have been a TD in their favor and changed the outcome. 

The Seahawks allowed a whopping 512 total yards to Matt Schaub and the Atlanta Falcons last week.  This is a bad Seattle defense that ranks 23rd in total defense giving up 376.1 yards per game and 30th in yards per play (6.2) allowed.  Conversely, the Bucs are improved greatly defensively this season, ranking 14th in yards per play (5.4) allowed. 

The Seahawks have a huge game on deck against the 49ers in a division rivalry.  They could easily be overlooking the Bucs here and looking ahead to that divisional showdown against the undefeated 49ers.  The Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Now they have to try and get margin here against a Bucs team that is way better than their record would indicate. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Seattle) - after having won six or seven of their last eight games, a team that is winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Tampa Bay) - with a scoring defense that allows 27 or more points per game are 43-17 (71.7%) ATS over the last five years.  Bet the Buccaneers Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Pittsburgh Steelers +1 

The Pittsburgh Steelers are much better than their record would indicate.  They are 3-4 this season, but their four losses have come to the Patriots, 49ers, Seahawks and Ravens, who are a combined 27-4 on the season.  And three of those losses came by 4 points or less, which just shows how close they are to being a 6-1 team.  But because they actually have a losing record, they are undervalued right now and should not be home underdogs to the Indianapolis Colts this week. 

The Colts are 5-2 and are overvalued because of their record.  All seven of their games have been decided by a touchdown or less, so they have been extremely fortunate in close games.  They trailed the entire way against the Broncos at home last week and needed a last-second field goal to escape with a 15-13 victory.  That’s a bad Broncos team, and I think their luck comes to an end this week. 

The Colts have some key injuries here that are getting overlooked.  They will be without their best receiver in T.Y. Hilton due to a calf injury.  The Colts are 0-5 SU without Hilton in the lineup over the last couple seasons. They could be without both LB Justin Houston and FS Malik Hooker, who are both questionable.  I know James Conner is doubtful for the Steelers, but other than him they are relatively healthy. 

I think both offenses are pretty comparable here with backup QB’s in Mason Rudolph and Jacoby Brissett.  However, there is a big advantage for the Steelers on defense in this one.  Pittsburgh ranks 7th in yards per play (5.1) allowed.  Indianapolis ranks 22nd in yards per play (5.9) allowed.  Yards per play is easily the most important stat to determine how good a defense is. 

The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Pittsburgh is 32-20 ATS as an underdog under Tomlin.  The Colts are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Pittsburgh is 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in its last nine home meetings with Indianapolis.  Take the Steelers Sunday. 

25* NFL London GAME OF THE YEAR on Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5 

The Jacksonville Jaguars have really become a good team once Gardner Minshew took over at quarterback.  They have gone 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in his seven starts with their three losses coming to Houston (by 1), Carolina (by 7) and New Orleans (by 7).  So they have been competitive in every game.  Their four wins have come by an average of 9.8 points pre game. 

Now the Jaguars head over to London determined for revenge from a 12-13 loss at Houston in their first meeting this season.  That was Minshew’s first career start, and he still nearly led the Jaguars to a win.  They came up inches short on a two-point conversion in the closing seconds.  They have gone 4-2 since that defeat and are coming off back-to-back wins by double-digits.  Minshew is averaging 7.6 yards per attempt with a 13-to-2 TD/INT ratio on the season. 

Jacksonville is certainly used to this London trip.  The Jaguars have been over to London for seven straight seasons, and fans over there are starting to adopt them as their team.  In fact, I actually think they have a bigger home-field advantage in London then they do in Jacksonville.   

The Jaguars have flown out late in the week to London here recently and have everything figured out that goes along with the trip.  Players won’t be distracted because they are used to it.  And the Jaguars have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four London games despite being an underdog in all four.  They have covered the spread by an average of over 10 points per game in these contests. 

Houston isn’t the same team that Jacksonville faced the first time these teams met.  The Texans are now without their most important defender in J.J. Watt, who suffered a torn pectoral muscle against the Raiders last week.  Their defense was already pretty soft, and now it’s going to be one of the worst defenses in the NFL without Watt moving forward.  Especially since they have cluster injuries at cornerback.  The Texans are also missing their big playmaker in Will Fuller at receiver.  Stats have shown that Watson is a much better quarterback with Fuller on the field than off of it. 

I just haven’t been impressed at all with the Texans here lately as it is.  They are 1-1 SU & 0-2 ATS in their last two games overall.  They lost 23-30 at Indianapolis and trailed the entire way.  And last week they trailed basically the entire way against Oakland until late in the fourth quarter and were fortunate to win 27-24 as 5.5-point favorites. 

It’s well documented that Deshaun Watson takes more sacks than any other quarterback in the NFL.  A big part of that is poor offensive line play, but it’s also because he holds onto the ball too long and tries to extend plays too often.  Well, the Texans have been at their worst offensively against teams like the Jaguars that get after the quarterback.  The Jaguars rank 4th in the NFL in sacks (29).  They held the Texans to 13 points in their first meeting. 

Bill O’Brien is 0-6 ATS after having 34 possession minutes or more and 24 or more first downs in their previous game as the coach of Houston having never covered in this situation.  The Jaguars are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. AFC opponents.  The underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday. 

20* Dolphins/Steelers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Miami +14.5 

This line is outrageous.  The Miami Dolphins cannot be catching more than two touchdowns against the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Dolphins aren’t as bad as they are perceived to be, and the Steelers are one of the worst teams in the NFL, so they just can’t be laying this big of a number. 

The Steelers are 2-4 this season with their two wins coming against the Bengals and Chargers, who are a combined 2-12.  And their win over the Chargers was very misleading as the Chargers basically gave them two touchdowns with turnovers.  The Steelers only gained 256 total yards on offense against the Chargers. 

And that’s my problem with the Steelers laying this big of a number.  Their offense is horrid.  They average just 20.5 points and 276.5 yards per game this season.  The Steelers rank 28th in total offense this season.  With backup quarterbacks, they have gone to a dink and dunk passing game that will get figured out rather quickly.  They just aren’t going to be putting up points in a hurry. 

My mind was blown last week when it was announced that Ryan Fitzpatrick was going to start against the Bills instead of Josh Rosen, and the line didn’t move at all.  Fitzpatrick is at least worth 3 to 4 points over Rosen, and he has proven that the last two weeks.  He entered late against the Redskins and led the Dolphins on two touchdown drives, nearly leading them to their first victory of the season in a 16-17 loss. 

Then last week, Fitzpatrick did everything in his power to beat the Bills as 17-point road underdogs.  The Dolphins probably deserved to win that game because they outgained the Bills by 76 yards.  Fitzpatrick threw for 282 yards with one touchdown and one pick, while also rushing for a score.  The Bills got a 45-yard onside kick return TD for a score with 1:38 left to make it a misleading 31-21 final. 

I like the fight I saw in the Dolphins in that game.  They are rallying around Fitzpatrick and they clearly aren’t tanking contrary to popular belief.  I’ve seen a team hungry for a victory the last two weeks.  And that certainly won’t change on the bright lights of Monday Night Football.  This team would love nothing more than to get their first win of the season on the biggest stage to quiet their naysayers. 

Plays against home favorite of 10.5 or more points (Pittsburgh) - after having won two of their last three games, in October games are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS since 1983.  Pittsburgh is 12-28 ATS in its last 40 games as a favorite of 10 or more points.  Mike Tomlin is 5-14 ATS against teams that are outscored by 10-plus points per game on the season as the coach of the Steelers.  Pittsburgh is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a bye week.  Bet the Dolphins Monday. 

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +13 

I love several things about the Browns +13 over the Patriots this week.  First and foremost, the Browns are coming off their bye week, giving them a chance to regroup.  And the Patriots will be working on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football.  The rest and preparation advantage clearly goes to the Browns in this one. 

The Patriots were -10.5 over the Browns on the lookahead line last week.  But after beating the Jets 33-0, the Patriots jumped up to -13 favorites.  Well, the Jets basically gave that game away by committing six turnovers.  They threw two touchdowns in the end zone and just nothing went their way as Sam Darnold famously said he was ’seeing ghosts’. 

The Browns come in highly motivated for a victory after two straight losses, including a blown 20-6 lead over the Seahawks to lose 28-32 going into the bye week.  The Browns also get a lost healthier this week as they get some key pieces back in the secondary in CB’s Greedy Williams and Denzel Ward from injury.  And Baker Mayfield got some much needed extra time to rest his banged up hip. 

I think the Browns are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL right now due to their 2-4 start.  The talent is just too good on this team to be 2-4.  They showed what they were capable of in their 40-25 road win over the Ravens as 7-point dogs a few weeks back.  Unfortunately, they haven’t always lived up to their potential because of turnovers.  They have already committed 14 turnovers in six games, including a combined 12 turnovers in their four losses.  There’s no question they are primed for a big effort off their bye week as long as they take care of the football. 

The Patriots are clearly overvalued right now after their 7-0 start to the season.  I say that because they have faced the easiest schedule in the entire NFL.  Their schedule ranks 32nd in difficulty.  The Browns have faced the 13th-toughest schedule to compare.  Six of the Patriots seven wins have come against teams that are a combined 7-32 on the season.  The lone exception was the 16-10 win over the 5-1 Buffalo Bills, but that was a fluky result as the Bills outplayed them and should have won.  The Bills outgained them by 151 yards.  I believe Cleveland is by far the 2nd-best team the Patriots will have faced this season. 

The Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  Cleveland is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Plays against favorites (New England) - a good offensive team scoring 27 or more points per game against a poor defensive team that allows 23 to 27 points per game, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games are 33-12 (73.3%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Browns Sunday. 

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Buffalo Bills -1.5 

The Buffalo Bills are legit this season, yet they just rarely get the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  And I definitely think they are getting overlooked as only 1.5-point home favorites here against the Eagles. 

This is the best Bills team the city has seen in probably decades.  They are 5-1 and nothing about what they have done this season is a fluke.  They are outgaining teams by nearly 70 yards per game this season.  They have outgained five of their six opponents. 

The only exception was actually last week in a flat performance against the Dolphins, yet they still won by 10 points.  And I think the fact that they didn’t cover that inflated 17-point spread is why we are getting them at a discount here.   

Nobody has played the Patriots tougher than the Bills.  They lost 10-16 to the Patriots, but gave up a special teams touchdown and outgained the Patriots by 151 yards.  Tom Brady had one of the worst games of his career in that game.  He was 18-of-39 passing for 150 yards without a touchdown and an interception. 

Now this elite Bills defense will continue to terrorize Carson Wentz, who is probably seeing ghosts by now just like Sam Darnold.  The Eagles lost by 18 at the Vikings and followed it up with a miserable 27-point road loss to the Cowboys last week.  If they were going to show some fight, it would have been last week against the Cowboys.  I just think this team is broken right now. 

They have one of the worst secondary’s in the league.  And they just got rid of Orlando Scandrick, who called out the Eagles’ locker room for being content after winning the Super Bowl two years ago.  He said the hunger is gone, and it’s hard to argue. 

The Vikings and Cowboys proved you could run on the Eagles.  Those two teams averaged 156 rushing yards per game the last two weeks on this Eagles defense.  They have injuries on the offensive line and at the skill positions that are making things tough on Wentz and the offense. 

The Eagles are now 1-3 on the road this season and getting outscored by 10.5 points per game.  It will be a very hostile atmosphere in Buffalo this week as the fans couldn’t possibly be more excited about this team.  It is one of the most passionate fan bases in the NFL, even when they’re bad.  But when they’re good, their home-field advantage is massive. 

Plays on home favorites in non-conference games off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays against any team (Philadelphia) - after trailing in their previous game by 14 points or more at the half against an opponent that scored 30 points or more last game are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Bills Sunday. 

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Giants +7 

The Detroit Lions just can’t be favored by a touchdown over the Giants today.  They are 2-3-1 on the season with their two wins coming by a field goal each.  And they were aided by mistakes by the Chargers and injuries to the Eagles. 

Detroit’s defense has completely fallen apart.  The Lions are giving up 33.0 points and 462.7 yards per game in their last three games, which have all resulted in losses.  The injuries are mounting on defense as they will be without DT Mike Daniels and CB Darius Slay.  And they just traded away a team captain and one of the most liked players on the team in Quandre Diggs, and players voiced their frustrations over the move. 

The Giants should be able to shred this Lions defense as well.  Detroit just got back some key pieces from injury last week in Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram.  And Golden Tate is back from suspension.  Their offense is about as healthy as it has been at any point this season, and Daniel Jones is primed for another big performance here. 

I liked what I saw from the Giants’ defense last week against a good Cardinals offense.  They held the Cardinals to just 245 total yards, including 89 passing.  They fell in a quick 17-0 hole early and were able to climb their way back with a chance to win thanks to the job the defense did.  They held the Cardinals to just 10 points over the final three quarters, and one of those was a field goal after the offense turned it over on downs deep in their own territory late. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Detroit) - after covering the spread in four of hitter last five games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1983.  The Lions are 16-37 ATS in their last 53 games after covering the spread in four or five of their last six games.  They are getting too much respect here after covering four of their last five coming in, and they aren’t winning by margin. 

The Giants are 16-3 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of two straight games.  New York is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games.  The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Look for New York to continue to be road warriors here and cover this inflated number.  Take the Giants Sunday. 

15* Redskins/Vikings NFC ANNIHILATOR on Washington +17 

This is a great time to ’sell high’ on the Minnesota Vikings and ‘buy low’ on the Washington Redskins.  The Vikings are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS this season, while the Redskins are 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS.  Bettors want nothing to do with the Redskins and want to back the Vikings as a result.  That creates artificial line inflation as the books don’t want to have one-sided action on the Vikings.  This line should be less than two touchdowns, so we’ll take the value. 

The headline surrounding this game is Kirk Cousins facing his former team.  But what about Adrian Peterson and Case Keenum?  Cousins chose to leave for Minnesota in free agency.  Keenum was the one who would have been hurt because the Vikings didn’t want him despite a great season, electing to sign Cousins instead. And you know Adrian Peterson wants to have a big game against his former team. 

I think having both Keenum and Peterson will be a huge advantage for the Redskins.  They know all of Mike Zimmer’s defensive tendencies, so they won’t be surprised by anything they see.  And I expect Washington players to rally around their veteran leaders and try and put forth their best game of the season here to try and get them both a win against their former team. 

“It’s gonna help a lot, watching film and seeing some of their tendencies,” said Peterson on how his familiarity with the Vikings defense could help the offense on a short week.  "Just knowing the personalities and their mentality right there is gonna be very important for me and being able to talk to these guys as well since it’ll probably be their first time going up against some of them.” 

“This is where we’re at and there’s only one way to get out of it, is to get out of it together,” said offensive tackle Morgan Moses on how the locker room is dealing with the team’s tough start. “I think we have a great plan, I know the guys are still here, they’re still bought in.  We show up everyday to work, to make our situation better.” 

The Vikings have won and covered three straight coming in.  They couldn’t possibly be more overvalued right now as a result.  Kirk Cousins had a disastrous start in his first four games this season, but has gotten going against three bad defenses in the Giants, Eagles and Lions.  Now, Cousins won’t have his favorite target in Adam Thielen, who suffered a hamstring injury in the win over the Lions last week.   

Not having to face Thielen should make Washington’s job a lot easier on defense.  They can now double-team Stephon Diggs because the Vikings simply don’t have any other great weapons.  Focus on stopping Diggs and Dalvin Cook will give them a chance to be competitive in this game.  It’s a Redskins defense that comes in playing well having given up just 12.5 points per game and 277 yards per game in their last two games overall. 

Plus, Kirk Cousins is covering about 2/3 of the time in 1:00 EST games on Sunday’s, but he has shied away from the big stage.  Cousins is only covering about 1/3 of the time with the Vikings in games not in the 1:00 EST Sunday time slot.  Each of the last 10 meetings in this series have been decided by 12 points or less, making for a perfect 10-0 system backing the Redskins pertaining to this 17-point spread. 

Plays on any team (Washington) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games against an opponent that went over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take the Redskins Thursday. 

20* Patriots/Jets MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on New York +10 

The New York Jets have been a completely different team with Sam Darnold at quarterback.  In their two games with him this season, they only lost 16-17 to the Bills and upset the Cowboys 24-22 as 7-point dogs.  And they led 16-0 over Buffalo before linebacker C.J. Mosley went out with an injury, and gave up three straight scoring drives late to lose by one. 

Darnold returned from Mono last week and had a great game against the Cowboys, going 23-of-32 passing for 338 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.  They jumped out to a 21-3 lead early before the Cowboys made it interesting late with two touchdowns late in the fourth quarter.  And now, the Jets are expected to get back the quarterback of their defense in Mosley, who is one of the best linebackers in the NFL and has been out since Week 1. 

The Jets want some revenge from a 14-30 road loss to the Patriots as 20.5-point dogs.  They managed to cover that spread despite having the inept Luke Falk at quarterback.  This team had no chance with Falk, and their season numbers are skewed because of having to start him for three games.  The numbers look much better in games with Darnold at quarterback as he is simply picking up where he left off at the end of last year. 

The Patriots are dealing with a ton of injuries themselves, especially on offense where they haven’t looked the greatest in recent weeks despite facing the Bills, Redskins and Giants.  Julian Edelman and Phillip Dorsett are both banged up, but both are expected to play.  Josh Gordon was forced to leave the Giants game last week with a leg injury, and his status is questionable, though I would guess he’s more doubtful.  They lost FB James Devlin to a neck injury and their running game just hasn’t been the same since.  The Patriots only average 102 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season.

The Patriots have put up historic numbers defensively thus far this season.  However, it’s worth noting that they have played the single-easiest schedule (32nd) in the entire NFL.  Five of the six teams they have played have two wins or less on the season with the one exception being the Bills, and they probably should have lost that game as they were outgained by 151 yards in that game.  The Jets have played the 10th-toughest schedule as four of the five teams they have faced are .500 or better with the lone exception being the Browns.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (New England) - a good offensive team that averages 27 or more points per game, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY Jets) - revenging a same-season loss, off a home win are 37-13 (74%) ATS over the last 10 years.  New York is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Jets Monday. 

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Bears -3 

I’m fading the New Orleans Saints again this week.  My handicap wasn’t bad on the Jaguars last week.  I said Teddy Bridgewater and the Saints offense isn’t very good.  And they only scored 13 points against the Jaguars.  But they still won because their defense was lights out and held Gardner Minshew down. 

They keep winning every close game because Bridgewater has been a game manager and their defense has been good enough.  But the streak stops here.  The Saints are way overvalued right now due to being 5-1, but all five victories have come by one score, so they have gone 5-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  That’s very tough to sustain.   

The Bears are pissed off coming off a loss to the Raiders in London.  And they’ve had two weeks to get ready for the Saints as they are coming off their bye week.  I’m not concerned at all whether Chase Daniel or Mitchell Trubisky starts for the Bears because I have them power rated the same.  It looks like Trubisky is good to go, and he has the higher ceiling and more mobility.   

The last time we saw the Bears at home they were shutting down the Vikings 16-6.  And they will shut down Bridgewater and the Saints again this week.  Chicago is giving up just 13.8 points per game this season and 8.0 points per game in their two home games against the Packers & Vikings. 

The Saints are averaging just 18.3 points and 278 yards per game on the road this season.  This is the best defense that Bridgewater will have seen yet.  The Saints are giving up 374 yards per game on the road and getting outgained by 96 yards per game in their three road games this year. 

The Bears are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning record.  The Bears are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 home games overall.  They have had a great home-field advantage over the past few seasons.  The Saints have notoriously struggled in road games outdoors on grass because it neutralizes their team speed.  And it’s worth noting their best playmaker in Alvin Kamara is banged up right now.  Take the Bears Sunday. 

25* NFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Rams/Falcons OVER 53.5 

Expect plenty of offensive fireworks in this game between the Rams and Falcons Sunday played inside the Georgia Dome in Atlanta.  It’s perfect conditions for a high-scoring affair between two of the better offenses in the NFL, but also two of the worst defenses in the league. 

The Falcons rank 7th in total offense at 391.3 yards per game.  The Rams are 12th in total offense at 370.8 yards per game.  The Falcons are 26th in total defense, giving up 388.8 yards per game.  And the Rams are 12th in total defense at 346.8 yards per game. 

The Falcons are giving up 31.0 points per game this season.  It’s like their defense has quit, but they have also been hit hard by injuries.  The Falcons have been particularly bad defensively the last two weeks.  They gave up 53 points to the Texans and 34 points to the Cardinals. 

The Rams started the season pretty well defensively against some bad offenses, but they have been very poor defensively the last three weeks.  They gave up 55 points to the Bucs, 30 to the Seahawks and 20 to the 49ers for an average of 35.0 points per game.  I expect both offenses to top 28 points in this one, and likely to get into the 30’s with the winner scoring 40-plus. 

The Rams traded for Jalen Ramsey, and he should play this week.  But they also traded away CB Marcus Peters, lost their best corner in Aqib Talib to a rib injury, and lost one of their best pass rushers in Clay Matthews to a broken jaw.  That helps explain why their defense has been so poor.  Offensively, they should get back Todd Gurley from injury this week, who they didn’t have against the 49ers. 

The Falcons are also dealing with a ton of injuries defensively as they are without S J.J. Wilcox, DT Michael Bennett, S Keanu Neal and S Johnathan Cyprien.  They could also be without CB Desmond Trufant and CB Blidi-Wreh-Wilson, who are both questionable.  These secondary injuries basically give them no chance of stopping anyone.  Matt Ryan has thrown for over 300 yards in every game this season as the Falcons are consistently playing from behind.  Fortunately, they have stayed almost 100% healthy on offense and have a ton of playmakers for Ryan. 

The Rams are 7-0 OVER in their last seven road games after possessing the ball for 26 or fewer minutes and gaining 13 or fewer first downs in their previous game.  The OVER is 5-1 in Rams last six games following an ATS loss.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Atlanta with combined scores of 55, 58, 64 and 51 points.  The OVER is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. 

20* AFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Indianapolis Colts -1 

I really like the spot for the Indianapolis Colts this week.  They are coming off a bye and first place in the AFC South is on the line.  That’s why I’m not concerned at all bout them having any sort of letdown following their big upset road win over the Chiefs last time out. 

The bye week came at a great time because the Colts were really banged up.  Now the Colts should get back several key players this week, including their best defensive player in LB Darius Leonard, who led the NFL in tackles last season.  They’ll be as healthy as they have been at any point in the season this week. 

The Texans could suffer a letdown following their comeback from 14 points down at Kansas City last week to win 31-24.  And they didn’t come out of that game unscathed.  They have a ton of injuries at linebacker and in the secondary, as well as the offensive line.  And those injuries to two starters up front will be where the Texans hurt the most. 

The key to beating the Texans is to sack Deshaun Watson.  The Falcons and the Chiefs weren’t able to get after him the last two weeks, but the Colts will be able to.  The Texans managed just 13 points against the Jaguars, who rank 7th in adjusted sack rate.  The Texans only managed 10 points against the Panthers, who rank 1st in adjusted sack rate.  And the Colts rank 3rd in adjusted sack rate, so they will be in Watson’s face all game long, especially going up against a banged up offensive line. 

The Colts are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  Indianapolis is 14-3 SU in its last 17 home meetings with Houston.  The Texans are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games off an upset win as an underdog.  Houston is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Colts Sunday. 

15* Chiefs/Broncos AFC West ANNIHILATOR on Denver +3.5 

The Kansas City Chiefs are broken defensively.  It doesn’t matter how good their offense is, they simply cannot overcome their defensive woes.  And they have so many injuries right now on both sides of the ball that they just can’t get anything fixed.  Plus, they are on a short week here and traveling to play in altitude, making matters worse for them. 

The Chiefs are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They were fortunate to win 34-30 over the Lions three weeks ago on the road, but failed to cover as 7-point favorites.  Then they lost 13-19 as 10.5-point home favorites to the Colts.  And last week they lost 24-31 as 3.5-point home favorites to the Texans.  You know this team is not right when they are losing back-to-back home games. 

The Denver Broncos opened 0-4 and mostly everyone but the guys in the locker room gave up on this team.  They have rebounded with two impressive victories, winning 20-13 on the road over the Chargers as 4.5-point dogs and topping the Titans 16-0 at home as 1-point favorites.  Now, the Broncos know that with a win Thursday they can pull within one game of the Chiefs for the division lead.  That’s why I think they will be the more motivated team here. 

When you look at the numbers, it’s easy to see the Broncos are better than their 2-4 record would indicate.  They have outgained four of their six opponents this season.  They are outgaining foes by 28 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play this year.  They are a lot more healthy than the Chiefs and are expected to get WR Emanuel Sanders back from injury this week.  But look for them to run the football as much as possible and try to control the time of possession, taking a blueprint from the Colts and Texans the last two weeks.   

The Texans rushed 41 times for 192 yards on the Chiefs, while the Colts rushed 45 times for 180 yards.  Teams have gashed the Chiefs on the ground all season.  The Chiefs rank 30th in the NFL against the run, giving up 161.8 rushing yards per game.  They are also tied for 30th in giving up 5.2 yards per carry. 

The Chiefs are having a hard time possessing the ball for long, which is putting their defense in some terrible predicaments.  That’s the knock on Andy Reid is that he gets too pass-happy.  The Chiefs only ran the ball 14 times for 36 yards against the Colts.  They ran even less against the Texans with 11 rushes for 53 yards.  And Reid is stubborn and won’t change his strategy now. 

Patrick Mahomes is battling an ankle injury that has really limited his mobility, and he’s just not the same player right now because of it.  Not to mention, he’s missing some key pieced on offense, including Sammy Watkins and a pair of offensive linemen.  Defensively, the Chiefs are in even worse shape.  They are without their best defensive player in DT Chris Jones.  They are also without DT Xavier Williams.  They could be without CB Kendall Fuller and LB Anthony Hitchens. 

The Broncos played the Chiefs tough in both meetings last year, and they weren’t very good while the Chiefs were one of the best teams in the NFL.  They only lost 23-27 at home as 3.5-point dogs, and they only lost 23-30 on the road as 8.5-point dogs.  They actually outgained the Chiefs 796 to 786 in those two meetings as well and arguably should have won both. 

Plays against any team (Kansas City) - off two or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1983.  The Chiefs are 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games after gaining 6 or more yards per play in four consecutive games.  Kansas City is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a. Losing record.  The Broncos are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Thursday games.  Roll with the Broncos Thursday. 

20* Lions/Packers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on UNDER 46 

This total seems a little high for two teams with suspect offenses up against two improved defenses.  Plus it’s a division rivalry, so these teams are very familiar with one another.  I expect a low-scoring, defensive battle in this one that stays UNDER the combined total of 46 points.  It also helps that it’s going to be cold out with temperates expected to be 34 degrees Monday night. 

You would be hard-pressed to find a defense that is as improved as much as the Packers are this season.  They are only giving up 18.6 points per game.  They have made some great additions in the secondary throughout the draft, and also acquired some impressive free agents up front.  They have been great against the pass but poor against the run this season. 

The good news for the Packers is that the Lions aren’t a team that runs the football very well as they averaging just 3.9 yards per carry this year.  I expect the Lions to try and utilize their ground game more in this one, which will keep the clock moving.  They do average 31 rush attempts per game, which is way up from normal for them as they try and get their renewed run game going with consistency.  It just hasn’t worked out very well for them. 

The Lions are scoring 24.2 points per game this year, but they have played basically all soft defenses in the Cardinals, Chargers, Eagles and Chiefs.  This will easily be the best defense they have faced yet.  The Packers have struggled offensively, averaging 23.8 points per game but only 337 yards per game. 

Life gets much more difficult for the Packers this week as they have a ton of injury concerns on offense.  They will be without star WR Devante Adams, who is quickly thrusting himself in among the Top 5 receivers in the game.  They could also be without RB Jamaal Williams and C Corey Linsley in this game.  I believe the Lions can slow them down, especially without having to deal with Adams. 

Detroit is 32-16 UNDER in its last 48 road games after allowing 30 points or more last game.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Packers last five vs. NFC North opponents.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Lions last six games following a bye week.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Lions last six games following a loss. 

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (Green Bay) - after going over the total by 28 or more points in their last three games, a good team winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 34-11 (75.6%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday. 

15* Steelers/Chargers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh +7 

The Los Angeles Chargers just can’t be this heavily favored at home.  They are 1-2 at home this season with their only win coming over the Colts in overtime.  They were also upset by the Texans and the Broncos at home this year.  They simply have no home-field advantage with a tiny stadium and fair-weather fans. 

The Steelers travel well, and I won’t be surprised if this feels like a home game for them based on what I’ve seen out of the Chargers in the past.  They should not be catching 7 points here, not even with a third-string quarterback after Mason Rudolph was knocked out with a concussion last week. 

I love the story of Steelers’ QB Devlin Hodges.  He was lightly recruited out of high school and chose to stay closer to home and attend Samford.  All he did was go on to becoming the FCS record holder in career passing yards with 14,584, breaking the previous record held by Steve McNair.  Despite that, he wound up going undrafted. 

Hodges kept his poise, and he earned a practice squad spot on the Steelers.  He kept making plays and great throws in practice, and eventually made the 53-man roster to be the backup QB last week.  And he held his own when replacing Rudolph, completing 7-of-9 passes for 68 yards in the OT loss to the Ravens.  It certainly wasn’t his fault they lost that game.  Hodges is a guy that plays with a chip on his shoulder, and now he has a full week of practice to prepare to be the starter. 

No team has been hit harder by injuries than the Chargers, which is why they shouldn’t be this heavily favored.  They are without S Derwin James, T Russell Okung, S Adrian Phillips, WR Dontrell Inman, K Michael Badgley and C Mike Pouncey.  They could also be without TE Hunter Henry and DE Melvin Ingram, who are both questionable after missing last week.  These injuries are a big reason why the Chargers are just 2-3 this season.  Their only blowout win by more than 6 points came against the Miami Dolphins, the worst team in the NFL. 

Conversely, the Steelers have only been blown out once, and that was the opener at New England.  Their other three losses all came by 4 points or less, so I think they are undervalued right now because of their 1-4 record when they could easily be 3-2.  The Steelers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win.  The Chargers are 11-28-1 ATS in their last 40 home games.  Roll with the Steelers Sunday. 

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Jacksonville Jaguars -1 

I’ve been so impressed with rookie QB Gardner Minshew of the Jaguars.  He has single-handedly injected life into this Jaguars team following their Week 1 loss to the Chiefs.  They have gone 3-1 ATS since Minshew took over.  And in three of his four games, he has led a late drive in the 4th quarter to give his team a chance to win.  All three of those games were on the road, too. 

The Jaguars only lost by 1 at Houston after falling inches short on a 2-point conversion.  They got a late score to beat the Broncos 26-24 outright as underdogs in Denver.  And last week Minshew was chucking it into the end zone in the final seconds of a 27-34 loss at Carolina.  They also beat Tennessee 20-7 in his lone home start in a game that was never in doubt. 

Minshew is completing 67% of his passes for 1,279 yards with a 9-to-1 TD/INT ratio this season.  This is a Jaguars offense that just put up 507 total yards on a good Panthers defense last week.  They had 455 yards on the Broncos last week.  I think the last time we’ve seen a Jacksonville offense this explosive was back in the Mark Brunell days.  The threat of Minshew has opened up running lanes for Leonard Fournette as well as the Jaguars have rushed for an average of 209 yards per game the last two weeks. 

It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Saints.  They are off to a 4-1 start this season despite losing Drew Brees in Week 2.  They have played four straight games against NFC teams, and they are coming off a division win last week over the Bucs.  Now they step out of conference and won’t be nearly as motivated here against the Jaguars. 

The Saints have not put up very good numbers at all in their two road games this year.  They have been outgained by an average of 193 yards per game in their road games against the Rams and Seahawks.  The Jaguars simply need this win more as they sit at 2-3 on the season.  I expect them to get it Sunday done Sunday at home with the help of a Saints team that won’t be as interested. 

Jacksonville is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games after gaining six or more yards per play in two consecutive games.  Fans will be excited to see Minshew in action because he hasn’t played at home in nearly a month with their last home game on September 19th.  They’ll have a bigger home-field advantage than normal as a result.  And there’s a good chance Jacksonville gets back CB Jalen Ramsey from injury this week.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Vikings -3 

The Minnesota Vikings showed some resiliency following their lackluster road loss to the Bears in Week 4.  They bounced back with a 28-10 road win over the New York Giants in a game that wasn’t even that close.  The Vikings outgained the Giants 490 to 211 and really should have won by even more. 

Now, the Vikings return home where they have one of the best home-field advantages in the entire NFL.  No stadium gets louder than Minnesota, and they have dominated in both of their home games this season.  They are 2-0 and outscoring their opponents by 18.0 PPG.  They beat the Falcons 28-12 before crushing the Raiders 34-14. 

Mike Zimmer is 31-12 ATS in all home games as the coach of the Vikings.  He has been even better as a home favorite when he has stepped outside the division.  In fact, the Zimmer is 20-2 SU & 18-2-2 ATS as a home favorite against non-division opponents as the coach of Minnesota. 

The Eagles are getting a little too much love for their 31-6 home win over the hapless New York Jets last week.  Keep in mind this is a team that has lost to the Lions and Falcons this year, and they barely beat the Redskins.  And the injury situation is not a good one for the Eagles.  They are without DT Malik Jackson, DT Timmy Jernigan, WR DeSean Jackson, CB Ronald Darby, CB Avonte Maddox and RB Darren Sproles. 

I think those two losses at defensive tackle in Jackson and Jernigan hurt the Eagles more than anything in this matchup with the Vikings.  Minnesota has a renewed focus on running the football on offense this year.  The Vikings are executing it to perfection as they are rushing for 166 yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry this season.  This is easily the best rushing attack that the Eagles have faced yet as they have almost exclusively gone up against pass-heavy teams.  Only one team has tried to run the ball more than 20 times on the Eagles this year. 

The Vikings are 7-0 ATS in home games when the total is 42.5 to 49 over the last 2 seasons.  The Vikings are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Minnesota is 38-16-1 ATS in its last 55 home games overall.  Carson Wentz will be up against the best defense he has faced this year, and I expect him to struggle.  Take the Vikings Sunday. 

15* Giants/Patriots Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New England -16.5 

Tom Brady is on record saying this is the best defense he has ever played with in New England.  That’s hard to argue when you look at the numbers this defense has put up since the Super Bowl last year, and frankly since the second half of last season in general. 

The defense has allowed just two touchdowns total in their last six games, which is two touchdowns in 24 quarters.  That’s hard to do in today’s NFL.  Two touchdowns they’ve given up this season have been via special teams and on offense, so we don’t count those.  They are the top ranked team in scoring defense at 6.8 points per game and total defense at 238.4 yards per game. 

Now, you can only imagine what this defense is going to do to a rookie quarterback in Daniel Jones who is missing almost all of his top weapons.  Top RB Saquon Barkley and backup RB Wayne Gallman have been ruled out, and the Giants are bringing up Jon Hillman from the practice squad to fill in for them.  Top receiver Sterling Shepard won’t play after suffering a concussion last week, and the best weapon in TE Evan Engram is questionable with a knee injury. 

Jones clearly has his hands full.  This game will go similar to last week’s 10-28 home loss to the Vikings, who also have a strong defense.  That game was a bigger blowout than the final score even showed as the Vikings outgained the Giants 490 to 211 in total yards, outgaining them by 279 yards for the game. 

The Vikings had really struggled on offense prior to gaining 490 yards on this soft New York defense.  It’s a Giants defense that ranks 30th in the NFL in giving up 409.4 yards per game.  The Giants have cluster injuries at linebacker with three LB’s questionable, and their best LB in Ryan Connelly out for the season.  Tom Brady and company should be able to score at will on them.  The Vikings ran for 211 yards on them last year. 

The Patriots are scoring 31.0 points per game and averaging 378.6 yards per game.  This is the worst defense they have faced yet this season outside the Dolphins, who they beat 43-0.  The Patriots are 5-0 this season with four of those wins coming by 16 points or more, so I’m not afraid to lay 16.5 points with them here. 

New England is 13-2 ATS vs. poor passing defenses that allow 235 or more passing yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Patriots are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  New England is 43-19 ATS in its last 62 games overall.  The Patriots are 40-17-2 ATS in their last 59 home games.  Bet the Patriots Thursday. 

20* Browns/49ers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on San Francisco -3 

The San Francisco 49ers have finally remained healthy this season, and head coach Kyle Shanahan has shown what he can do with this team that has stockpiled a ton of talent through the draft and has been ready to break out.  They have certainly broken out this season as they are off to as impressive a 3-0 start as anyone in the NFL thus far. 

The 49ers have outscored their three opponents by a combined 42 points.  The numbers they’ve put up show that it has been no fluke.  The 49ers rank 4th in total offense at 421.0 yards per game while averaging 32 points per game.  They are 3rd in total defense, giving up just 283.3 yards per game and 18 points per game.  They are the only team in the NFL to rank in the Top 5 in both categories.   

The 49ers are averaging 6.3 yards per play on offense and giving up only 4.7 yards per play on defense.  As you can see, they are outgaining opponents by 1.6 yards per play, which is one of the best marks in the entire NFL and is probably the most important stat when handicapping games.   

Jimmy G is getting into a rhythm offensively, and he is helped by an elite rushing attack that is averaging 175 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry.  And this young defense has arguably the best front seven in the entire NFL thanks to mostly first-round draft picks across the board. 

The Browns are getting too much respect here for their 40-25 beating of the Ravens last week.  That’s a Baltimore team that ranks last in the NFL in total defense.  Baker Mayfield really struggled in his first three games before having his best game of the season against the Ravens.  He’ll go back to struggling this week against a defense that I believe is the best he will have faced up to this point in the 49ers.  The Browns only averaged 16.3 points per game in their first three.  And I don’t think they handle success very well. 

The 49ers are hungry to be a winning team this year and take down the NFC West division.  They are starving for wins.  They have had such bad luck in the injury department in recent years, which has held them back.  Shanahan has done a good job of getting the most out of what he has had to work with.  Now, he has one of the best rosters in the NFL.  That’s why I’m not concerned about the 49ers getting overconfident or lacking hunger.  I think the bye week will have them re-focused and even healthier now, and there’s no question they want to show the world how good they are on Monday Night Football this week. 

Cleveland is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games off a win by 10 points or more against a division opponent.  San Francisco is 32-11 ATS in its last 43 Monday Night Football games.  The Browns are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win by more than 14 points. 

Plays against road underdogs or PK (Cleveland) - off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, with a winning percentage between 45% & 55% on the season are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the 49ers Monday. 

20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on New York Giants +6 

I’ve been on the Giants in both games since Daniel Jones took over at quarterback and they haven’t disappointed.  They erased an 18-point deficit at Tampa Bay and won 32-31 as 6.5-point underdogs.  And last week they dominated from start to finish in a 24-3 rout of the Redskins at home.  Jones just gives this team a huge boost as they know they have a chance with him under center.   

He completed over 85% of his passes in the preseason with 416 yards and two touchdowns with zero interceptions and a 137.3 QBR.  He has carried over that success to the regular season.  Jones is completing 69% of his passes for 578 yards and 8.1 yards per attempt through two games.  He has the 3rd-best QBR in the league right now.  His mobility is what really gives this offense a boost as he has rushed for 66 yards and two scores on 6.6 per carry through two games. 

Heck, what was a bad defense though the first three weeks even stepped their game up in a big way last week, and I have no doubt it’s the boost they got from Jones at quarterback.  The Giants limited the Redskins to just 176 total yards and forced 4 turnovers.  Now a weak Vikings offense comes to town and the Giants should not be catching 5.5 points at home in this one. 

Kirk Cousins has been awful this season as the Vikings are averaging just 169 passing yards per game.  The Vikings have wanted to run the football more this year is part of the reason, but there’s just no fixing Cousins at this point.  The Giants have done a good job of stopping the run this year, holding opponents to 110 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry. 

Jones is forming a great chemistry with Sterling Shepard and Evan Ingram, his two best weapons.  And now the Giants get Golden Tate back from a 4-game suspension.  They didn’t miss Saquon Barkley at all last week.  Backup Wayne Gallman rushed for 63 yards and a touchdown and added 6 receptions for 55 yards and a score.  I think the Barkley injury is overblown and being factored into the line too much once again. 

The Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games and have lost both road games to the Packers and Bears this season.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  Minnesota is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after allowing less than 90 rushing yards in its previous game.  New York is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games after gaining 350 or more total yards in its previous game. 

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY Giants) - after allowing 14 points or less last game against an opponent that scored 3 points or less in the first half last game are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Finally, the Giants’ home-field advantage is bigger than it normally is in the short-term because fans are excited about Jones, and we saw that last week against the Redskins.  Bet the Giants Sunday. 

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Tennessee Titans -2.5 

I am on the Tennessee Titans this week despite the fact that they are a tough team to figure out.  They’ve gone on the road and beaten both Cleveland and Atlanta in blowouts to flash their potential.  But they also lost at home to the Colts and had a no-show at Jacksonville.  However, I trust them more than the Bills this week. 

It’s a terrible spot for Buffalo.  They feel like they should be 4-0.  They blew a golden opportunity against the team they hate the most in the Patriots last week.  They dominated the box score, but committed 4 turnovers and gave up a special teams touchdown to gift-wrap the game to the Patriots. 

This has hangover written all over it.  It’s the type of loss that beats a team twice because they still aren’t over it the next week, which usually leads to a bad week of practice and another poor performance.  Not to mention, they lost starting QB Josh Allen to a concussion in the loss and he’s unlikely to play this week. 

Meanwhile, the Titans are almost fully healthy and get back their best offensive lineman in Tayler Lewan from a 4-game suspension.  He will certainly help in pass protection and run blocking as the Titans love to run behind their road grader.  The Titans also want revenge from a 12-13 loss in Buffalo last season in which they gave the game away with 3 turnovers. 

Both teams are pretty equal defensively as the Bills give up 15.7 points per game this season, while the Titans give up 15.5 points per game.  But there’s no question the Titans have the edge on offense.  They average 22.7 points per game, while the Bills average just 19.0 points per game.  And the Bills will be severely handicapped if Matt Barkley starts over Allen.  We are getting a line here that indicates Allen will start, but if he is out then this line will sure go to -3.5 or higher. 

The Titans are 26-13 ATS in their last 39 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less.  Tennessee is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  They seem to show up against the better teams in the NFL.  They will want it more than the Bills this week, who are still hungover from that Patriots loss.  Take the Titans Sunday. 

15* Ravens/Steelers AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +3.5 

The Baltimore Ravens are probably the most overrated team in the NFL right now.  They should not be 3.5-point road favorites over the rival Steelers.  In fact, this is the largest home underdog role for the Steelers ever in the Tomlin vs. Harbaugh series.  And it’s worth noting that 13 of the last 25 meetings in this series were decided by 3 points or less, so there’s definitely value getting the Steelers +3.5 this week. 

The reason the Ravens are overrated is because they have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  They rank 27th in total defense in giving up 395.5 yards per game.  They are also dead last in yards per play (7.0) allowed.  They gave up 33 points and 503 total yards to the Chiefs two weeks ago.  And last week they allowed 40 points and 520 total yards to the Browns, a Browns offense that had been struggling prior to that game. 

I think the Steelers are underrated because they opened 0-3 this season against a brutal schedule that featured road games at the Patriots and 49ers, as well as a home loss to the Seahawks.  Well, those three teams are a combined 11-1 this season.  And they gave the Seahawks and 49ers a run for their money, only losing by a combined 6 points to those two. 

I was on the Steelers Monday night in their ‘get right’ game against the Bengals.  They did not disappoint as they dominated in a 27-3 victory.  The offense finally got going under Mason Rudolph with 260 passing yards.  They got created with the wild cat package, too, and I’m sure they have more tricks up their sleeve that the Ravens won’t be prepared for this week.  They also held the Bengals to 175 total yards and have a better defense than they showed in the first three weeks of the season. 

The Steelers have always been better with their backs against the wall under Mike Tomlin.  They have covered 70% of the time when they’ve had a losing record.  Despite the 1-3 start, the Steelers are only one game back in the AFC North.  If they win this week and the Browns lose at San Francisco Monday night, they’ll actually be tied for first place in the division.  They still have all of their goals in front of them. 

The Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  Baltimore is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. AFC North opponents.  The Steelers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  The underdog is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  These four trends combine for a 23-2 system backing Pittsburgh.  Roll with the Steelers Sunday. 

15* Bears/Raiders London No-Brainer on Oakland +5.5 

Bettors and oddsmakers alike just don’t want to give the Oakland Raiders any credit.  They have been an underdog of 3 points or more in all four games this season, and a dog of 6 or more three times.  Yet, they’ve managed to go 2-2 and I believe they are better than they are getting credit for.  That’s why I’ll ‘buy low’ on the Raiders again this week just as I did last week when they beat the Colts 31-24 outright as 6-point dogs on the road. 

Conversely, the betting public is quick to back the Bears after winning three straight coming in.  But two of those wins were against winless Denver and Washington, who are a combined 0-8.  And the other was a 16-6 home win last week against an overrated Minnesota Vikings team.  I just don’t think the Bears can be laying big points when their offense averages just 16.5 points per game while ranking 30th in total offense at 273.5 yards per game.  Their defense is elite, but they can only carry this team so far. 

Jon Gruden and Derek Carr are clearly on the same page this season.  He is having a great year as Carr is completing 72.1% of his passes for 888 yards with a 6-to-3 TD/INT ratio thus far.  He loves his two new targets in Tyrell Williams and Darren Waller.  Williams has 17 receptions for 216 yards and four touchdowns, and Waller has been a matchup nightmare that will exploit this Bears defense.  He has already caught 33 balls for 320 yards.  Plus, rookie Josh Jacobs has rushed for 307 yards and two scores while averaging 5.0 per carry. 

One key reason I’m backing the Raiders is because they are used to this trip to London, and I agree with their approach of flying out early rather than flying out late like the Bears did.  Last season, the Raiders flew in late in the week, and didn’t put up much of a fight in a 27-3 loss to a very good Seahawks team at Wembley Stadium.  Coach Jon Gruden takes full responsibility for that showing. 

“I learned a valuable lessen,” Gruden said.  “We need a little more time to get acclimated.  It’s my first time last year coming to London and playing football.  I’m used to playing home games at home.  I made a mistake, tried to correct it this year and hopefully it shows on the field.” 

“My body feel better, I know our team feels better,” Carr said.  “Having that day off when you first get here, and then having another day off after that to rest and get right and eat, get your metabolism going back the right way.  As a family man I hate it, but as a quarterback I love it.  I think coming the whole week is a good move.” 

The Bears spent all week begging their players to fall asleep on their overnight flight, which separated Chicago around dinnertime Thursday and landed in London around breakfast Friday morning.  Chicago receiver Allen Robinson has played overseas three times as a member of the Jaguars, the NFL’s unofficial London team. 

“It’s a rude awakening,” Robinson said.  “I’ll be honest; It isn’t an easy trip.  You’ve got to get over there, and you’ve got to get acclimated quickly.  It’s a long flight.  As soon as you land, you’re starting your day.  My advice to the team would be to go to sleep as soon as you get on the plane.  It’s such a different agenda than you’re accustomed to, as far as sleep patters.” 

Chicago is 13-33 ATS in its last 46 road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.  The Bears are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games off three consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better.  The Raiders won’t be giving the Bears the same turnover gifts that the last three teams they have faced have.  And I like that the Raiders will feel normal having gone to London early in the week to get acclimated, while the Bears’ bodies won’t quite be used to it in time for this game.  Take the Raiders Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta Falcons +5 

It’s do or die for the Atlanta Falcons this week.  They sit at 1-3, two games behind the Saints in the NFC South and alone in last place in the division.  This is a must-win for them, and I like backing teams where I know I’m going to get their max effort. 

It’s also time to ‘buy low’ on the Falcons after most bettors have given up on them after their 1-3 start.  But when you look at the numbers, this is much better than a 1-3 team.  The Falcons are improved defensively this season as they are 8th in total defense, giving up 324.8 yards per game.  They are 12th in total offense, averaging 382.8 yards per game.  They are outgaining opponents by 58 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play as they average 6.0 yards per play on offense and give up 5.3 yards per play on defense.  Those are numbers of a 3-1 team, not a 1-3 team. 

The Houston Texans are 2-2, but they have the numbers of a 1-3 team.  They are 22nd in total offense at 329.2 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play.  They are 17th in total defense, giving up 363.5 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  The problem with their offense is their offensive line and Deshaun Watson holding onto the ball too long.   

In fact, Watson has now been sacked at least 4 times in nine of their last 10 games.  They led the league in giving up 61 sacks last year and are well on their way to leading the league in that category again.  You’d think head coach Bill O’Brien would do more to protect Watson and make sure the ball gets out quicker, but that’s just not happening.  Those negative plays keep wrecking drives. 

The Texans have scored just 10, 13 and 7 points in their last three home games dating back to their loss to the Colts in the playoffs last year.  They are averaging just 10.0 points per game.  It’s hard to lay points with a team like the Texans who just haven’t been able to score at home, let alone lay more than a field goal, which you have to do if you want to back the Texans here.  This line should be a field goal or less, and that’s why I think there’s tremendous value with the Falcons here. 

Atlanta is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 road games after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game.  Houston is 13-28 ATS in its last 41 games vs. excellent offensive teams that average 375 or more yards per game.  The Falcons are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.   

Plays on road teams (Atlanta) a good passing team (265 PYPG or more) against a poor pass defense (230-265 PYPG allowed), after allowing 7 or more passing yards per attempts in two straight games are 33-8 (80.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  At some point, the Falcons are going to stop self-destructing and living up to their potential, and I’m betting on it being this week.  Bet the Falcons Sunday. 

25* NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Seahawks PK 

The Seattle Seahawks want revenge from losing two heartbreakers to the Rams 31-33 at home and 31-36 on the road last year.  They really feel like they can win the division this year, and this Thursday night home game will play a big role in whether they do or not. 

The Seahawks are off to a 3-1 start this season.  Their only loss came to the Saints in a fluky final as the Saints had two non-offensive touchdowns in that game, but the Saints outgained them by 249 yards.  They also outgained the Steelers by 164 yards in their 28-26 road win in Week 2.  And last week they handled their business in a 27-10 road win at Arizona, so they should still be fresh as they put it on cruise control in the second half. 

The Rams opened 3-0 and were fortunate to win by 3 at Carolina and by 7 at Cleveland with a goal line stand at the end.  And they also were fortunate when Drew Brees got hurt early in the game against the Saints and they ended up winning comfortably as the Saints weren’t prepared to lose their leader. 

Last week, the Rams were finally exposed in their 40-55 home loss to the Bucs as 9-point favorites.  They fell behind 21-0 early and were using the hurry up to try and get back in the game the rest of the way.  They used a ton of energy trying to come back in that shootout, which makes matters worse for them here on a short week with travel.  They will clearly still be fatigued. 

The Rams could not contain the run against the Seahawks last season.  Seattle rushed for a combined 463 yards in their two meetings with the Rams last season, an average of 231.5 yards per game.  Look for them to ground and pound them to death again.   

Todd Gurley isn’t the same player he was last year, and he has just 219 rushing yards on 49 carries for 4.5 per carry on the season.  Gurley isn’t being used as much in the passing game, either, as he has just 11 receptions for 62 yards.  Jared Goff isn’t very good with a 6-to-6 TD/INT ratio on the season and I almost certainly believe the Rams are regretting their decision to give him a big contract. 

Seattle is 8-1 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better over the last two seasons.  The Seahawks are 9-2 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 5.65 or more yards per play over the last two years.  The Rams are 31-64-1 ATS in their last 96 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Seahawks are 7-0-1 ATS in their last nine Thursday games.  Seattle is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home meetings with the Rams. 

Plays on home teams (Seattle) - after three consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Seahawks Thursday. 

20* Bengals/Steelers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Pittsburgh -3 

Now that this line has moved down to Pittsburgh -3 I think it’s time to pull the trigger on the Steelers.  I still believe they are the better team here even without Ben Roethlisberger, so getting them -3 at home is pretty cheap. 

The Steelers have lost a couple close games to two very good teams since Mason Rudolph took over for Ben Roethlisberger in Week 2.  They lost 26-28 at home to the Seahawks and 20-24 on the road to the 49ers.  Those are two common opponents with the Bengals.  The Bengals lost 20-21 to the Seahawks and played them similarly.  However, they were blitzed by the 49ers at home 17-41. 

While the Steelers are very healthy outside Big Ben, the Bengals have all kinds of injury concerns heading into this game.  DE Carlos Dunlap, T Andre Smith, DE Sam Hubbard, T Cordy Glenn, DE Carl Lawson, G Michael Jordan and DT Ryan Glasgow are all questionable for this game.  CB Darius Phillips, CB Darqueze Denard, WR AJ Green and G Alex Redmond are all out. 

The Steelers have only averaged 17 rush attempts per game this season, which is not what they want as they are passing on 67% of their plays.  They will certainly take a look at that leading up to this game and try to get James Conner going.  It’s the perfect opponent for Conner to break out as the Bengals are allowing 169 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  That will help take some pressure off of Rudolph. 

Bets against underdogs of PK (Cincinnati) - an good offensive team averaging 5.8 or more yards per play against a defense that is allowing 5.8 or more yards per play, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bengals gave up 572 total yards to the 49ers and 416 total yards to the Bills the last two weeks.  Their defense simply cannot be trusted, and I believe the Steelers have by far the superior stop unit in this one.  

The Steelers have won 42 of their last 56 meetings with the Bengals.  They have won 8 straight in this series and are 11-1 SU in the last 12 meetings.  Bet the Steelers Monday. 

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Tampa Bay Bucs +10 

I think this is a great time to fade the Los Angeles Rams.  They are off to a 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start this season, and now they are overvalued.  They only beat Carolina by 3 in the opener.  They got a great break with an injury to Drew Brees in Week 2 that allowed them to beat the Saints.  And last week they needed a goal-line stand in the final seconds to beat the Browns by 7. 

Plus, the Rams have two huge division games coming up the next two weeks with games against the Seahawks and 49ers.  And they are coming off a primetime game on Sunday Night Football against the Browns.  This is a sandwich spot here against the Bucs, and I don’t expect them to have their full focus. 

The Bucs have lost at home to the 49ers and Giants by giving the game away.  They had four turnovers against the 49ers and two pick 6’s.  And last week they blew an 18-point lead to the Giants, and missed a chip shot field goal at the buzzer that would have won it.  I think the fact that they lost that game instead of winning it has them undervalued as well when clearly they should have won. 

The Bucs just seem to play better on the road when they get away from the negativity that surrounds Jameis Winston at home.  They went on the road in Week 2 and beat the Panthers 20-14 as 6.5-point dogs.  And they’ll relish this opportunity to face the defending NFC champs here on the road Sunday. 

The Rams just don’t have much of a home-field advantage.  And Jared Goff just isn’t that good with a 4-to-3 TD/INT ratio this season and only 7.0 yards per attempt.  Todd Gurley isn’t himself as he clearly has a knee problem.  The Rams have hardly used him in the passing game since the knee injury popped up late last year.  He’s only a shell of his former self when he’s not catching balls out of the backfield. 

I would definitely argue that Jameis Winston just put together two of his best games in a row in his career.  I think Bruce Arians is starting to get through to him. Winston was 16-of-25 for 208 yards and a touchdown with zero turnovers against the Panthers on the road two weeks ago.  And last week he threw for 380 yards with three touchdowns and one interception.  He’s done everything he could do to win both of those games. 

Tampa Bay may have the best defense it has had in years.  Todd Bowles took over as defensive coordinator, and the Bucs added some great pieces in LB Shaq Barrett (8 sacks) and DT Ndamukong Suh.  The combination of Suh and Vita Vea up the middle makes them very tough to run against.  And Barrett has provided a tremendous pass rush.  The Bucs are only allowing 330.7 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play, holding opponents to 68 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play less than their season averages. 

The Bucs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  The Rams are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 home games against a team with a losing record.  Tampa Bay is 35-19 ATS in its last 54 games after scoring 30 points or more last game.  Arians is 15-4 ATS after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game in all games he has coached.  Bet the Bucs Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Giants -2.5 

I was on the Giants last week against the Bucs and I’m riding them for many of the same reasons this week.  Finally, they decided to bench Eli Manning and go with first-round pick Daniel Jones.  This upgrade at quarterback clearly gave them a boost last week, and now fans will come out in full force to watch Jones in his first career home start this week against the hapless Washington Redskins. 

Jones was dynamite in the preseason.  He completed 29-of-34 passes (85.3%) for 416 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions with a 137.3 QBR.  He is the real deal, and he’s playing with a chip on his shoulder after everyone thought it was a terrible pick by the Giants to draft him that early.  He’s ready to prove his doubters wrong. 

Jones got off to a flying start last week by leading the Giants back from an 18-point deficit to beat the Bucs 32-31 on the road.  Eli Manning would never have been able to lead that kind of comeback.  Jones completed 23-of-36 passes for 336 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions.  He also rushed for 28 yards and two scores, including the game-winner.  HIs mobility is certainly what separates him from Manning. 

The Redskins are a dumpster fire.  They are 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS this season.  They didn’t commit a single turnover in each of their first two games, yet still lost to the Eagles by 5 and Cowboys by 10.  Then they fell apart and committed five turnovers on Monday in a 15-31 home loss to the Bears.  Now the Redskins are on a short week and have a ton of injury concerns. 

The Reedskins are already without TE Jordan Reed, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, RB Derrius Guice, LB Reuben Foster and T Trent Williams.  Those are five starters they are without.  Plus, they could be without G Brandon Sherff and WR Terry McLaurin, who are both questionable.  McLaurin would be a huge loss as he’s the team’s leading receiver with 16 receptions for 257 yards and three touchdowns.  The team is already short on weapons.  Plus, QB Case Keenum was in a walking boot all week and won’t be 100% if he goes. 

I think the Giants are undervalued due to the Saquon Barkley injury.  Backup Wayne Gallman is worth a point less than Barkley at most and RB injuries are always overrated.  Plus, they didn’t need much of a running game against the Bucs last week with just 72 rushing yards compared to 312 passing yards.  They should be able to move the ball at will against a Redskins defense that is allowing 31.3 points and 402.7 yards per game, including 261 passing yards per game and 79% completions to opposing quarterbacks. 

The Giants are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of two straight games.  Plays on home teams (NY Giants) - after three consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with the Giants Sunday. 

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Kansas City Chiefs -6 

Believe it or not, this will actually be the first meaningful game for Patrick Mahomes in a dome in his NFL career.  Just imagine what that explosive offense with a ton of speed is going to do to this Detroit Lions defense on the turf inside Ford Field Sunday.  It’s not going to be pretty for the Lions. 

Mahomes is having another huge season already.  He is completing 71.9% of his passes for 1,195 yards with 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions through three games.  He is averaging a whopping 10.5 yards per attempt.  He has unlimited weapons in Sammy Watkins, Travis Kelce, Demarcus Robinson, Mecole Hardman and a three-headed monster in the backfield with the addition of LeSean McCoy.  They’ve been able to afford the injury to Tyreek Hill without skipping a beat. 

The Lions will get a reality check here.  They are off to a 2-0-1 SU & 2-1 ATS start this season.  They allowed Kyler Murray and the Cardinals to come back from an 18-point deficit in Week 1.  That’s a Cardinals team that just lost by 18 at home to Carolina.  They were lucky to beat the Chargers by 3 in Week 2 as they were outgained by 86 yards.  The Chargers had two touchdowns called back and fumbled going in from the 1-yard line.  And last week they took advantage of a banged-up Eagles team and won by 3 despite getting outgained by 86 yards.  They could easily be 0-3 instead. 

This is a Lions defense that ranks 23rd in total defense in giving up 394.7 yards per game this season.  That’s not good news for them going up against Mahomes and company.  In four college games in his career, Mahomes averaged 492 passing yards per game in domes, which was 126 yards more than his averages.  And in one preseason game he averaged 11.5 yards per attempt.  They are going to get lit up, and the Lions don’t have the weapons to match Mahomes score for score. 

The Lions are 0-6 ATS against teams with a turnover margin of +1 or more per game over the last three seasons.  They are losing by 14.2 points per game on average in this spot.  The Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.  Kansas City is 7-0 ATS in the first month of the season over the last two years.  The Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  These four trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing Kansas City.  Take the Chiefs Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Dolphins +15.5 

It’s finally time to jump in on the Miami Dolphins and ‘buy low’ on them Sunday.  They are off to an 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS start and have been one of the worst teams in NFL history thus far.  However, I saw some signs from them last week against the Cowboys that are buy signs moving forward. 

The Dolphins had a chance to lead at halftime but turned it over deep in Dallas territory and went into the break down 10-6.  They were outscored 21-0 after intermission, but clearly deserved to cover the 22.5-point spread.  They failed on a 4th down from the Dallas 40-yard line late, and the Cowboys tacked on a late touchdown to get the cover. 

Miami clearly showed a lot of fight last week against the Cowboys, and a big reason was because they made the switch to Josh Rosen at quarterback.  He did about as well as you could expect.  The Dolphins even attempted an onside kick in the first half, showing that they were going for the win.  And now this week the Dolphins should get back some key players in WR Albert Wilson and S Rashad Jones from injury. 

The Chargers are just doing Chargers things once again this season.  They needed overtime to beat the Colts in Week 1 after letting a double-digit lead slip away.  They had two touchdowns called back and fumbled from the Detroit 1-yard line in a 10-13 loss at the Lions.  And last week they blew a 17-7 halftime lead and lost 20-27 at home to the Texans. 

The Chargers are having a tough time overcoming their plethora of injuries.  They are without RB Melvin Gordon, S Derwin James, T Russell Okung, TE Hunter Henry and S Adrian Phillips.  Not to mention, WR Mike Williams, CB Casey Hayward, WR Travis Benjamin, TE Virgil Green and K Michael Badgley are all questionable this week.  No team has been hit harder by injuries, and the Chargers are clearly struggling to cope with the losses of so many key players. 

Plays on any team (Miami) - after scoring 9 points or less in two straight games are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The schedule couldn’t have been much more difficult to this point with games against the Ravens, Patriots and Cowboys, which is part of the reason they have struggled so badly.  The Chargers are easily the worst team they’ve faced yet, and they will be more competitive in this game than oddsmakers anticipate.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday. 

15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Oakland Raiders +7 

The Oakland Raiders got off to a great start this season with a 24-16 upset win over the Broncos are 3-point underdogs.  But then they ran into two juggernauts in the Chiefs at home and Vikings on the road and were pretty much blown out in both games.  Now I think it’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Raiders as they face a team they can handle here in the Indianapolis Colts. 

I believe the Colts are overvalued now after going 2-1 SU & 2-0-1 ATS through their first three games.  They lost in OT to the Chargers on the road in Week 1 after coming back from a 15-point deficit.  They squeaked out a 19-17 win over the Titans are 3-point road dogs in Week 2, and also beat the Falcons 27-24 at home as 1-point favorites last week. 

As you can see, all three of the Colts’ games this season have been decided by 6 points or less.  I believe this game goes down to the wire as well, so there’s a ton of value on the Raiders catching the full touchdowns.  The Colts aren’t a team built to blow out opponents with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback.  He is a game manager who won’t beat his own team, but he’s also not capable of running up the score on anyone with his limited abilities. 

Derek Carr is having a solid season for the Raiders.  He is completing 73.5% of his passes for 699 yards with a 4-to-3 TD/INT ratio and 7.1 yards per attempt.  He has faced a gauntlet of defenses thus far in the Broncos, Vikings and Chiefs.  He has found a nice chemistry with two new receivers in TE Darren Waller (26 receptions, 267 yards) and WR Tyrell Williams, (14, 180 3 TD). 

The Colts have a ton of injury concerns heading into this game, while the Raiders will be getting some key players back from injury.  The Colts just lost CB Malik Hooker for 4-6 weeks with a knee injury.  Last year’s leading tackler LB Darius Leonard is out with a concussion.  T.Y. Hilton suffered a quad strain last week and is questionable to play this week.  The Colts are actually getting outgained on the season. 

Plays against favorites (Indianapolis) - off a home win, in the first month of the season are 79-39 (66.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Jon Gruden is 13-4 ATS after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game in all games he has coached.  The Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Take the Raiders Sunday. 

20* Eagles/Packers NFC No-Brainer on Philadelphia +4.5 

This is a great ‘buy low, sell high’ situation.  We’ll ‘buy low’ on the Eagles, who are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS this season and basically in a must-win situation Thursday night.  We’ll ’sell high’ on the Packers, who are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS and now overvalued because of it. 

I think we are at least getting a point or two of value on the Eagles due to what has taken place thus far.  I still believe the Eagles are one of the best teams in the NFL.  Their two losses came by 4 and 3 points, and if they do lose this game, I expect it to be by 4 or less again as well.  They had seven drops and two fumbles against the Lions last week, while the Lions had a kickoff return TD.  They outgained the Lions by 86 yards and arguably should have won. 

The Eagles will get some players back from injury this week that they didn’t have Sunday against the Lions.  And those injuries are a big reason they were upset by the Lions.  The Eagles will get back their best receiver in Alshon Jeffery, and they’ll also have WR J.J. Arcega-Whiteside in this one.  TE Dallas Goedert is back this week as well.  Receiver injuries were the biggest problem for the Eagles last week, but that won’t be an issue this week even though DeSean Jackson is still out. 

The Packers have plenty of injury problems of their own.  They have five key players listed as questionable in this one in LB Zadarius Smith, TE Jimmy Graham, T Bryan Bulaga, DT Kenny Clark and LB Blake Martinez.  I would argue their injury concerns are even greater than that of the Eagles. 

The Packers have an improved defense, but they have played three bad offenses in the Bears, Broncos and Vikings.  The Packers are fortunate to be 3-0 when you consider how poorly their offense has played.  They are scoring just 19.3 points per game and averaging just 287 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play.  They rank 28th in total offense, 28th in yards per play and 23rd in scoring offense. 

The Eagles are still 9th in total offense despite the injuries to their receivers.  They still have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, and their defense is among the best despite a slow start to the season.  They have a tremendous front seven, which helps make up for their weakness, which is in their secondary.  It’s only a matter of time before their defense starts playing like it has over the last couple years. 

The Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.  Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.  Bet the Eagles Thursday. 

20* Bears/Redskins ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Chicago -3.5 

Everyone in the media is dogging on Mitchell Trubisky and this Chicago offense.  But keep in mind the Bears have played two of the best defenses in the NFL in the Packers and Broncos.  I think this is Trubisky’s coming out party on Monday Night Football against what has been one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Washington Redskins. 

The Redskins are allowing a whopping 31.5 points per game, 455.0 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play through their first two games against the Eagles and Cowboys.  And their offense has struggled with 326.5 yards per game, so they are getting outgained by roughly 129 yards per game on the season. 

The Bears had the best defense in the NFL last season and they have picked up right where they left off.  They are giving up just 12.0 points per game, 292.5 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play through two games.  With a defense this good, the Bears are going to be in almost every game they play.  The offense just has to be average or better for this team to be elite. 

I think there’s some line value here based off last week’s line against the Cowboys.  The Redskins were 6.5-point home dogs to the Cowboys, but they are only 3.5-point home dogs to the Bears this week.  I have the Cowboys and Bears power rated similarly, so we are basically getting 3 points of value bases off that fact alone. 

The Bears have some momentum coming into this game as well.  They were starting an 0-2 start straight in the face last week.  They led 13-6 but gave up a TD and a 2-point conversion to the Broncos with only 30 seconds remaining to trail.  Trubisky managed to drive the field in 30 seconds and set up the game-winning 53-yard field goal from Eddy Pineiro as time expired.  Kicking has been a huge problem for the Bears, and now they have confidence that they’ve found their man.  That drive also gives Trubisky some confidence coming into this week as well. 

Jay Gruden is 1-8 ATS on Monday Night Football as the coach of the Redskins.  They are losing by 11.2 points per game in this spot.  The Bears are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs. a team with a losing record.  Washington is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 MNF games.  The Redskins are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Bears Monday. 

15* Rams/Browns NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Cleveland +3.5 

The Los Angeles Rams are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after their 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start this season.  They barely covered in their 30-27 road win over the Panthers as 1.5-point favorites.  And they got a huge break last week when Drew Brees went out early with a thumb injury in their 27-9 home win over the Saints.  We’ll ’sell high’ on the Rams this week. 

The Cleveland Browns certainly believed the hype in the offseason and were humbled in their 13-43 home loss to the Titans in Week 1.  They came back with a chip on their shoulder last week and made easy work of the Jets in a 23-3 road win.  And now this place will be rocking in Cleveland Sunday night with the defending NFC champions coming to town, and you can bet the Browns will be giving their best effort here. 

This Cleveland offense has so many playmakers that they are going to be tough to tame this season.  They were great with Baker Mayfield last season, and now they added Odell Beckham Jr. in the offseason.  He has already made his mark with this team with 13 receptions for 232 yards and a touchdown this week.  He is only going to continue to open things up for other players with the attention he is going to draw moving forward. 

The Browns are only giving up 300.5 yards per game through two games as their defense certainly looks improved.  The Rams lost two starting offensive linemen in the offseason. The strength of the Browns is their front seven, and Myles Garrett and company will make life tough on Jared Goff.  Garrett had three sacks last week and is an absolute terror. 

Plays against favorites (LA Rams) - off a home win, in the first month of the season are 78-37 (67.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays on underdogs or PK (Cleveland) - a bad defense from last season that allowed 385 or more yards per game are 31-11 (73.8%) ATS over the last 10 years.  Roll with the Browns Sunday. 

15* Steelers/49ers Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +7 

This is the classic ‘buy low, sell high’ game.  We’ll buy low on the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are off to an 0-2 start and have their backs against the wall in basically a must-win game here.  And we’ll sell high on the 49ers, who are 2-0 and coming off back-to-back road wins over the Bucs and Bengals. 

The Steelers have played the much tougher schedule thus far with a road loss to the Patriots and a home loss to the Seahawks.  And they lost Big Ben to a season-ending injury in the first half of that loss to Seattle.  Backup Mason Rudolph is ready for the spotlight and played well against the Seahawks in keeping them in that game.   

Rudolph went 12-of-19 passing for 112 yards with two touchdowns and one interception after taking Big Ben’s place last week.  I expect Rudolph to be even better with a full week to prepare to be the starter.  He did not expect to get in that game last week, and now he can change his mentality and lead a Steelers team that will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after everyone is counting them out now. 

The 49ers are feeling fat and happy after their 2-0 start, and now expectations are sky high for this team.  They are now 7-point home favorites over the Steelers, which is simply too much.  And the 49ers just lost their best offensive linemen in LT Joe Staley to a broken fibula, so Jimmy G will be concerned about the backup protecting his blind side, especially with his injury history. 

The Steelers showed that they aren’t giving in this season by trading for Minkah Fitzpatrick of the Dolphins.  Their secondary has been their weakness thus far, and he is an instant upgrade.  I have no doubt their defense is better than they’ve shown thus far as they were one of the top units in the league last year.  Adding Fitzpatrick will only make them better.  Plus they’ve played a much tougher schedule than the 49ers have thus far. 

The Steelers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The 49ers are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 home games.  Mike Tomlin is 27-16 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Pittsburgh.  Tomlin is 13-5 ATS in road games after two or more consecutive ATS losses as the coach of the Steelers. 

Plays against home favorites (San Francisco) - a poor scoring defense from last season that allowed 24 or more points per game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 23-2 (92%) ATS since 1983.  Take the Steelers Sunday. 

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Chargers -3 

The Chargers should be 2-0 after blowing the game in Detroit last week.  They outgained the Lions by 85 yards and fumbled at the 1-yard line going in for a score.  They also had two touchdowns called back by penalties and missed two field goals, yet only lost by 3. I think the fact that they lost that game has them undervalued this week.  Now we are getting the Chargers as only 3-point home favorites over the Houston Texans. 

The Chargers are hitting on all cylinders offensively in the early going.  They are averaging 430 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play on offense.  They should have their way with a Houston defense that is allowing 396 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play. 

The Texans are only averaging 339 yards per game & 6.0 yards per play on offense.  So the Chargers are outgaining opponents by 1.3 yards per play, which ranks 5th in the NFL, while the Texans are getting outgained by 0.7 yards per play.  Yards per play is one of the most important stats in the NFL.  The Top 5 teams in YPP differential are 9-1 thus far in 2019. 

The Texans have great skill position players, but that’s about it.  They have a bad defense and a bad offensive line.  Deshaun Watson has already been sacked 10 times this season in two games after taking the most sacks in the NFL last year.  The Chargers have one of the best pass-rushing duos in the NFL in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. 

The Chargers own the AFC South Division, going 30-5 ATS in their last 35 games against them.  They are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Texans.  The Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after failing to cover the spread in their previous game.  Bet the Chargers Sunday. 

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Giants +7 

Finally, the New York Giants have decided to bench Eli Manning and go with first-round pick Daniel Jones.  I think this upgrade at quarterback will give the Giants a big boost in Jones’ first start and inject some new life into this team.  They knew they weren’t going anywhere with Eli, but now there is hope with Jones.  I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Giants win this game outright Sunday against the Bucs. 

I also like backing 0-2 teams in Week 3 because their backs are against the wall and their season is essentially on the line.  You know you’re going to get their best effort, and that will especially be the case with the Giants this week with Jones starting.  Plus, the betting public wants nothing to do with the 0-2 teams because they have looked bad, and thus there is value in backing them. 

Jones was dynamite in the preseason.  He completed 29-of-34 passes (85.3%) for 416 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions with a 137.3 QBR.  He is the real deal, and he is playing with a chip on his shoulder after everyone thought it was a terrible pick by the Giants drafting him that early.  He’s ready to prove his doubters wrong. 

A big reason the Giants are 0-2 is because they have played a brutal schedule.  They lost to the Cowboys in Week 1 and the Bills in Week 2, a pair of teams that are 2-0 with two of the best defenses in the NFL.  I like the move to start Jones this week against a Tampa Bay defense that has been one of the worst stop units in the NFL for years.  And those games against the Cowboys and Bills were closer than the final scores.  They were only outgained by 24 yards by the Cowboys and 18 yards by the Bills, but they lost the turnover battle 4-0, which was the difference. 

In what world should the Bucs be favored by a touchdown over anyone other than maybe the Dolphins?  They've only been favored by 6 or more points one other time in the last seven years.  It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the Bucs after their upset road win over the Carolina Panthers last week as 6.5-point dogs.  This Tampa Bay offense has been atrocious in averaging 18.5 points, 292.0 yards per game and only 4.9 yards per play thus far.  Jameis Winston just can’t be trusted as chances are he’ll make plenty of mistakes to keep the Giants in this game.  He threw 3 interceptions against the 49ers in the opener. 

The Giants are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of two straight games.  New York is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after scoring less than 15 points in its previous game.  The Giants are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  The Giants are 6-1-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  New York is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six meetings in Tampa Bay.  Bet the Giants Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Denver Broncos +8 

This is the classic ‘buy low, sell high’ game.  We’ll buy low on the Denver Broncos, who are off to an 0-2 start this season and have their backs against the wall as they will clearly be giving their best effort to avoid an 0-3 start.  And we’ll sell high on the Packers, who are 2-0 and one of the favorite teams of the betting public. 

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Packers.  They are coming off two huge division wins over the Bears and Vikings, who are their two biggest threats to win the NFC North.  Now they step out of conference here against the Broncos and won’t be nearly as motivated for this game as they were for those two huge division games to open the season.  That will make it tough for them to cover this inflated 8-point spread. 

Denver has played better than its 0-2 record would show.  The Broncos actually outgained the Raiders in their 16-24 Week 1 loss on the road.  And they outgained the Bears by 99 yards in their 14-16 home loss in Week 2.  They still have one of the best defenses in the NFL, giving up just 20.0 points per game and 315 yards per game.  And their offense hasn’t been as bad as the media perceives, averaging 358 yards per game. 

Conversely, the Packers aren’t as good as their 2-0 record.  They were outgained by 41 yards by the Bears in their 10-3 road win in Week 1.  And last week they were outgained by 86 yards by the Vikings in their 21-16 win.  While the Packers have an improved defense, Aaron Rodgers and the offense have struggled mightily with just 274.0 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play through two games.  Things won’t get easier for Rodgers and company against this nasty, hungry Denver defense this week. 

Plays against favorites (Green Bay) - off a home win, in the first month of the season are 78-37 (67.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Packers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win.  Take the Broncos Sunday. 

15* Titans/Jaguars AFC South ANNIHILATOR on Jacksonville +2 

The Jacksonville Jaguars are looking at this game as a must-win Thursday.  They have started 0-2 against a brutal schedule with a home game loss to the Chiefs and a road loss at the Texans.  And now they have two road games on deck at Denver and Carolina.  So they really need to get this win at home Thursday, and I expect them to be ‘all in’ to do so. 

Gardner Minshew has more than held his own in place of Nick Foles this season.  Minshew has completed 45-of-58 passes (77.6%) and is averaging 8.4 yards per attempt this season.  He kept them in the game against the Jaguars in their 12-13 loss and brought them back against the Chiefs in Week 1.  He is primed for a big game against this Tennessee defense at home Thursday night. 

The Titans have opened 1-1 with a road win at Cleveland and a home loss to Indianapolis, so their schedule has been much easier.  And they’ve actually been outgained by 26.5 yards per game through two weeks.  Their offense is once again struggling with just 290.5 yards per game after being one of the worst offenses in the NFL last year. 

Adding to the Jaguars’ motivation is the fact that they will be playing with quadruple revenge after losing all four meetings with the Titans over the last two seasons.  The AFC South is wide open now with the Andrew Luck retirement as the other three teams are all 1-1.  The Jaguars know they still have a chance to win it, and it starts with winning this game at home Thursday night.  Plus, I always like backing home teams on Thursday nights because it’s a huge advantage for the home team and has proven a profitable bet through the years. 

The Titans are 16-34-3 ATS in their last 53 vs. a team with a losing record.  Tennessee is 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The home team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Doug Marrone is a perfect 6-0 ATS off a loss by 3 points or less as the coach of the Jaguars.  They are coming back to win by 13.3 points per game in this spot.  Wrong team favored here.  Take the Jaguars Thursday.