25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia Eagles ML -120

Note: Scroll down to the bottom for my FREE Super Bowl Prop Bets

This is a great matchup for the Philadelphia Eagles.  They will be able to run the football at will on the Kansas City Chiefs on offense, and they are perfectly set up to stop them defensively with their ability to defend the pass.  The Eagles are better everywhere than the Chiefs except at quarterback and will win the battle at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.

The Eagles rank 4th in the NFL at 153.9 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry.  The Chiefs allow 4.5 yards per carry on the season.  And they faced the 2nd-easiest schedule of opposing rush offenses, so they haven't seen anything like this physical, read-option attack of the Eagles.  Philadelphia faced a Top 10 schedule of opposing rush defenses, making their numbers even more impressive.

The Chiefs won't be able to run on Philadelphia and likely will abandon the running game for the most part.  Mahomes isn't close to 100% and that showed against the Bengals as he didn't scramble until the game was on the line.  He either moved up in the pocket or rolled out to the right, so the Eagles will be prepared for those two moves.  The Eagles rank 1st in the NFL allowing just 171.0 passing yards per game, 1st in sack percentage (11.49%) and 1st in sacks per game (4.1).  The Chiefs have two of the four worst offensive tackles in the NFL in terms of pressures allowed.  Mahomes is going to be under duress for four quarters in this one.

A lot has been made about how the Eagles played the easiest schedule in the NFL.  And while true, they handled their business.  A counter argument is that the Eagles are actually 7-1 against teams with winning records this season while outscoring them by a total of 115 points, or by an average of 14.4 points per game.   They had an easy path to the Super Bowl and will be fresh as a result after getting a bye, beating the Giants by 31 and the 49ers by 24 while receiving another bye prior to the Super Bowl.  They couldn't possibly be more fresh.

Kansas City consistently found itself in one-possession games this season, including both playoff games with a 7-point win over the Jaguars and a 3-point win over the Bengals in which they are aided by the refs.  They also had more injuries pile up in that win over the Bengals.  They are without WR Hardman, while both Toney and Smith-Schuster are less than 100%.  They also have CB Sneed and LB Gay banged up.  The Eagles are in much better shape health-wise.

This line moved towards the Eagles on the opener and I agree with it.  When the line moves towards one team in the Super Bowl off the opener, those teams have gone 11-4 ATS over the last 15 tries.  The only reason the Eagles aren't -3 here is because the Chiefs have Mahomes.  But the Eagles are better everywhere else and have no weaknesses.  I expect them to lead from start to finish in this one as a result, just as they have for most of the season when Hurts has been on the field.

The Chiefs are 0-7 ATS following an ATS win this season.  Kansas City is 3-11-1 ATS in its last 15 games following a SU win.  The Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine playoff games.  The last 9 reigning MVP's (Mahomes) who played in the Super Bowl all lost dating back to 2001.  Bet the Eagles on the Money Line in Super Bowl 57 Sunday.

FREE Super Bowl Prop Bets:

These are my favorite prop bets in order from strongest to weakest, so adjust your bet sizing accordingly. Don't go too crazy on these. They can all be found at DraftKings.

Eagles 1H ML: -120

OVER 1.5 4th Down Conversions: -160

Kelce Anytime TD: -125

Eagles Most Sacks: -125

Both Teams to Score 1+ Rushing TD: +125

UNDER 3.5 Made FG's: -165

Largest Lead UNDER 14.5 Points: -135

Kelce OVER 78.5 Receiving Yards: -120

Sanders Anytime TD: +125

Chiefs UNDER 99.5 Rushing Yards: -110

Sanders OVER 61.5 Rushing Yards: -110

Will Both Teams make a 33-plus Yard FG: NO -115

Smith Longest Reception OVER 23.5: -125

Eagles OVER 2.5 Sacks: -140

2-Point Conversion Attempt: YES +120

Super Bowl MVP Bets:

Sanders 22/1

Smith 30/1

20* Bengals/Chiefs AFC Championship No-Brainer on UNDER 48

Patrick Mahomes is hobbled and not himself.  Travic Kelce is nursing a back injury and questionable.  And the Cincinnati Bengals are missing three starters along the offensive line.  All these offensive injuries to both teams have me liking the UNDER in the AFC Championship Game.  Plus, temps will be around 20 at kickoff and only getting colder as the night progresses with double-digit MPH winds as well.

Cincinnati has played four consecutive defensive battles and has one of the most underrated defenses in the NFL.  Their last four games have seen 40, 43, 41 and 37 combined points.  They have allowed 24 or fewer points in eight consecutive games, including 18 or fewer in six of those.  They rode their defense to the Super Bowl last season and are doing it again this season.

Maybe the bigger surprise is just how well Kansas City has played defensively down the stretch.  They have allowed just 16.8 points per game in their last four games and 297.4 yards per game in their last five games.  They haven't allowed 350 or more yards in any of their last six games.  They will have a good game plan to slow down Joe Burrow and this Cincinnati offense in this rematch from a 24-27 road loss.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 4th meeting between the Chiefs and Bengals in the past two seasons.  They know each other inside and out, and that favors the defenses more than the offenses.  That's especially the case here since both defenses are very healthy while both offenses are banged up.

The UNDER is 9-1 in Bengals last 10 playoff games.  The UNDER is 13-3-1 in Bengals last 17 games vs. AFC opponents.  The UNDER is 43-19-2 in Bengals last 64 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Kansas City.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Chiefs last seven home games.  Cincinnati is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 games as a road underdog.  Kansa City is 6-0 UNDER after scoring 25 or more points in two consecutive games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

FREE 6-Point Teaser: 49ers +8.5/Bengals +7.5

20* 49ers/Eagles NFC Championship No-Brainer on San Francisco +3

I've been waiting for a +3 on the 49ers all week and it has finally started to pop up at multiple books this morning.  Grab a +3 if available or buy it to +3 (-120) or better.  The 49ers are showing tremendous value catching a full field goal against the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship Game.

The 49ers are the better team in my opinion.  They have gone 12-0 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They have scored at least 31 points in eight of those 12 games, and they have allowed an average of just 14.9 points per game during this winning streak.  They have the best defense in the NFL and an underrated offense with Brock Purdy, who has a 16-to-3 TD/INT ratio in leading the 49ers to each of their last eight victories.

The Eagles have played the easiest schedule in the NFL this season.  That schedule has been very easy down the stretch as they have faced the Giants three times, the Saints, Cowboys, Bears, and Titans in their last seven games.  This is a big step up in class for them and easily the toughest opponent they have faced all season.

One key matchup that favors the 49ers is the ground game.  The Eagles have one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL and have allowed 106 or more rushing yards in 12 of their last 14 games overall.  They allowed 99 and 87 yards in the other two instances.  The 49ers rely heavily on running the football as they have rushed for at least 153 yards in six of their last seven games overall.  They will be able to get what they want on the ground, which is going to continue to take a lot of pressure off Purdy.

The Eagles need to be able to run the ball to be successful on offense.  In their last three losses, they managed just 67 rushing yards against the Saints, 87 against the Cowboys and 94 against the Commanders.  Well, now they are up against a 49ers defense that ranks 2nd allowing just 79.0 rushing yards per game and 2nd at 3.4 yards per carry.  The 49ers will shut down their running game and make Jalen Hurts try and beat them through the air.  He is the worse passer of these two quarterbacks.

Kyle Shanahan is 11-1 ATS in January games as the coach of San Francisco.  I give the edge to Shanahan over Nick Sirianni and it's not even close when you compare playoff experience between the two.  I trust Shanahan to make some key decisions here that will help put the 49ers in position to win, and Sirianni to make some mistakes for the Eagles with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

FREE 6-Point Teaser: 49ers +8.5/Bengals +7.5

25* NFL Divisional Round GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers -4

This line should be closer to 49ers -7.  The Dallas Cowboys are getting too much respect for their win in prime time Monday Night over the Tampa Bay Bucs.  They beat a washed up Tom Brady who was playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.  Dak Prescott had a career game, and just everything that could go right for Dallas did.

Now the Cowboys are in a terrible spot playing their 4th consecutive road game and on a short week.  These haven't been short trips either as all four have been 700-plus miles for the Cowboys.  They won't have much left in the tank this week for the 49ers, who played last Saturday and have had two extra days to rest and prepare for this game than the Cowboys.  This is where the Cowboys' season comes to an end in blowout fashion.

They have to play the hottest team in the NFL in the 49ers, who have won 10 consecutive game the last six of which have come with Brock Purdy at quarterback.  The 49ers have scored 35-plus points in five of the six games started by Purdy with the lone exception being against the Seahawks in his second start on the road.  They also kneeled at the 1-yard line to end that game.  Purdy has a 16-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season and is averaging 9 yards per attempt.

The 49ers rank 5th in scoring offense at 27.3 points per game, 5th in total offense at 373.4 yards per game and 3rd at 6.0 yards per play.  The 49ers rank 1st in scoring defense at 16.7 points per game, 2nd in total defense at 302.3 yards per game and 4th at 5.0 yards per play.  They are the most complete team in the NFL with almost zero weaknesses.  They are also as healthy as they have been all season with all of their key weapons and defenders healthy.

Things won't come nearly as easy for Dak Prescott as they did against the Bucs.  The Cowboys have a suspect offensive line and the 49ers have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL, plus they give up nothing against the run.  Purdy is playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, which will negate Dallas' pass rush, which is the strength of their team.  Micah Parsons won't be all over Purdy like he was all over Tom Brady.  The Cowboys have a vulnerable secondary that Purdy will be able to exploit, plus the 49ers will have their way on the ground against the Cowboys, too.  They have rushed for 153 or more yards in all six games with Purdy under center.

Dallas was not playing well prior to the Tampa Bay game.  They lost 26-6 at Washington in Week 18 against third-string QB Sam Howell.  They beat a Titans team that was resting starters and playing a 3rd-string QB and needed to pull away in the 4th quarter just to do that.  They needed a late turnover from the Eagles to beat them with backup QB Minshew at home.  They lost to the Jaguars in OT on the road.  And they needed a last-second drive to beat the lowly Houston Texans by 4 at home.  They were playing like shit prior to that win over the Bucs, which was clearly the aberration.

Meanwhile, the 49ers have gone 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with seven wins by 13 points or more while outgaining nine of their 10 opponents.  The lone exception was against the Raiders on January 1st which was clearly a letdown spot.  The 49ers spent NYE in Vegas and probably partied too hard, thinking they'd just have to show up to win against a backup QB.  That performance can be forgiven.  When they have been locked in, they have been absolutely dominant.  The 49ers have outscored their opponents by an average of 16.2 points per game during their 10-game winning streak.

The 49ers have a huge advantage in the coaching department with Shanahan over McCarthy, too.  Shanahan is 10-1 ATS in January games as the coach of San Francisco.  The 49ers are 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS at home this season outscoring opponents by 13.7 points per game.  San Francisco is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 home games dating back to last season.  The 49ers won 23-17 at Dallas in the playoffs last season.  The Cowboys have exactly one playoff road win since 1993.  Dak is 1-4 ATS in his playoff career.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

15* Bengals/Bills AFC ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo -5.5

These are two teams coming off misleading results in the Wild Card Round.  The Bills should have beaten the Dolphins by more when you look at the numbers, while the Bengals should have lost outright to the Ravens.  Those misleading results have provided us with some line value to pull the trigger on the Buffalo Bills this week.  They should be closer to 7-point favorites against the Bengals at home this week when you factor in everything.

The Bills have won eight consecutive games and are playing with a lot of motivation for Damar Hamlin, plus the fact that they've never won a Super Bowl and feel like they should have won last year.  They are on a mission this season, and it's the defending AFC champion Bengals standing in their way this week, which only adds to the motivation.

The Bills felt like they just had to show up to win last week, and it showed after jumping out to a 17-0 lead they found themselves in a dog fight with the Dolphins.  They survived 34-31, but it was a bigger blowout than the final score.  The Bills outgained the Dolphins by 192 yards and held to them to just 231 total yards, which should make it impossible for them to score 31 points.  But the Bills committed three turnovers that set up easy scoring opportunities for the Dolphins.  Look for them to clean it up this week.

The Bengals beat the Ravens 24-17 at home last week.  They won despite getting outgained by 130 yards and racking up only 234 yards of total offense.  That came a week after the Bengals beat the Ravens 27-16 in Week 18 despite getting outgained by 129 yards and being held to 257 yards.  Their luck runs out this week on the road in a hostile environment against a much better team in the Bills.

A big reason the Bengals have struggled on offense the past two weeks averaging just 245.5 yards per game against the Ravens is because of a banged-up offensive line.  The Bengals will now be down three starters on the offensive line this week against the Bills.  Joe Burrow is going to be under duress the entire game.  He was sacked a ton in the playoffs last year, but his defense and his kicker bailed him out.  The defense won't stop this potent Bills offense, and he won't be bailed out this week when he's getting sacked more than a handful of times.  And this is coming from one of the biggest Burrow believers you will find.  I just think this is too much for him to handle this week.

Buffalo averages 6.1 yards per play on offense and allows 5.0 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.1 yards per play this season.  Cincinnati averages 5.4 yards per play on offense and allows 5.5 yards per play on defense, breaking dead even on a yards per play basis.  This shows Buffalo is by far the superior team.  

The Bills are 7-1 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 12.7 points per game.  Sean McDermott is 11-1 ATS following a win by 3 points or less as the coach of Buffalo.  The Bills are 7-0 ATS following a win by 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  Bet the Bills Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Chiefs UNDER 53

This total is way too high given how well both of these defenses have been playing down the stretch, especially the Chiefs.  The improvement of this Kansas City defense has been flying under the radar.  They have allowed just 17.8 points per game and 285 yards per game in their last four games overall.

The Jaguars have allowed just 13 points per game and 284 yards per game in their last four games overall.  That includes the 30 points they allowed to the Chargers last week, which was very fluky because it came with five turnovers from the Jaguars who gave the Chargers a ton of short fields en route to a 27-0 lead.  That game saw 61 combined points with a big Jaguars comeback, but it shouldn't have since the Chargers only had 320 total yards while the Jaguars had 390 in comeback mode.  That result has inflated this total this week.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and this will be the 2nd meeting between the Chiefs and Jaguars at Arrowhead Stadium this season.  The Chiefs won that first meeting 27-17 for just 44 combined points.  The Jaguars were held to just 315 total yards in defeat.  The Chiefs moved the ball well, but I expect the Jaguars to be much better defensively in the rematch.  And Kansas City is good at sitting on the ball and milking clock with a lead, which is why they always tend to play in closer game because they quit scoring and let teams back in it.  That makes them a great UNDER team.

The UNDER is 6-2 in Chiefs eight home games this season with an average of just 44.5 combined points per game.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Jaguars last 11 games after allowing 30 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Jaguars last seven games vs. good offensive teams that average 6 or more yards per play in the second half of the season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

25* NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Bucs +3

The Dallas Cowboys haven't won a road playoff game since January of 1993.  Tom Brady is 7-0 in his career against the Cowboys including a 19-3 win at Dallas earlier this season.  The Cowboys failed to reach the red zone once in that first meeting.  The Cowboys are 1-4 on grass this season while going 11-1 on turf, and they will be outdoors on grass here where their speed isn't as much of a factor.

Dak Prescott is also 0-4 ATS in the playoffs in his career.  Prescott tied for the NFL lead in interceptions this season despite missing five games.  He was terrible in a game the Cowboys were trying to win last week against Washington.  He went 14-of-37 for 128 yards with one touchdown and one interception while averaging just 3.5 yards per attempt.

The Cowboys lost that game 26-6 to the Commanders as 7-point road favorites.  Their 15 'drives' went like this; fumble, 3 and out, 3 and out, pick-6, 3 and out, 3 and out, TD, 3 and out, 3 and out, 3 and out, 3 and out, turnover on downs, 3 and out, 3 and out, 3 and out.  That doesn't look like a team that is playoff-ready, and certainly not one that should be laying points on the road.

Tom Brady had his best game of the season against the Carolina Panthers in Week 17 with a spot in the playoffs on the line.  Brady went 34-of-45 for 432 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions to lead the Bucs to a 30-24 win.  He has all of his weapons healthy and may be getting back some key pieces along the offensive line.  The Bucs were able to rest starters for the majority of the game against the Falcons last week and will be fresh and ready to go.

I trust Brady over Prescott, and I also trust this Tampa Bay defense over this Dallas defense.  The Cowboys gave up 40 points and 503 yards to the Jaguars, 34 points and 442 yards against the Eagles and 26 points and 309 yards against the Commanders in three of their last four games.  The other game be thrown out as the Titans rested their starters in Week 17.

The Bucs rank 13th in scoring defense at 21.1 points per game on the season and you can throw out the 30 points they gave up to the Falcons in Week 18 because they rested starters on defense.  The Bucs also rank 9th in total defense at 324.3 yards per game and 10th at 5.1 yards per play.  They held the Cowboys to 3 points and 244 total yards in that first meeting back in Week 1 this season.

Teams that have played the tougher schedule than their opponent on the season have been great bets in the wild card round.  The Bucs played the 13th-ranked schedule, while the Cowboys plays the 29th.  The team that played the tougher schedule is 54-28-2 ATS since 2002 in the wild card round.  If the difference in SOS is 10 or more, the team that played the tougher schedule is 30-9-1 ATS.

The Bucs are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games after gaining less than 250 total yards in their previous game.  Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Plays against favorites (Dallas) - in a game between two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a loss by 10 points or more are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Bucs Monday.

15* Chargers/Jaguars AFC Saturday Night BAILOUT on Jacksonville +2.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars have all the momentum heading into the playoffs.  They went 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their final five games overall and needed every single victory just to get into the playoffs.  Teams that come into the playoffs with momentum are dangerous teams.

That explains why Brandon Staley played his starters for so long with Herbert and Allen still in the game well into the 4th quarter against the Broncos last week.  But they fell short 28-31, which ended their four-game winning streak.  They put a lot into that game to try and win it, and it proved costly as two of their best players in DE Bosa and WR Williams left the field with injuries.  Bosa is good to go this week even if hobbled, but Williams was carted off with a back injury and is very questionable.

The key to the Chargers' turnaround down the stretch was getting both WR Williams and WR Allen back on the field healthy.  But without Williams they are much easier to defense because he is such a great deep ball threat, and a great jump ball receiver in red zone opportunities.  I have no doubt head coach Staley regrets his decision to play the starters in a meaningless Week 18 game.

The Jaguars have a big rest advantage here as they beat the Titans on Saturday last week, so they will be on normal rest.  The Chargers played on Sunday and will now be on a short week with travel having to fly down to Jacksonville.  The edge in rest and preparation goes to the Jaguars, and the coaching edge certainly goes to the Jaguars as well.  Doug Pederson is 5-1 ATS as a head coach in the playoffs guiding the Eagles to a Super Bowl win even with Nick Foles.  Staley will be making his first playoff appearance as a head coach, as well most of their players.

A lot of people want to throw out that first meeting between the Jaguars and Chargers this season because Herbert was coming back from injury, and they didn't have Williams or Allen.  Those are fair points.  But the Jaguars beat them 38-10 and totally dominated.  Trevor Lawrence went 28-of-39 for 262 yards with three touchdowns and zero picks.  They rushed for 151 yards as a team.  They held the Chargers to just 312 total yards despite playing come from behind style football.

A lot is being made of this QB battle between Lawrence and Herbert, but I think a key factor is that the Jaguars are going to be able to run the football while the Chargers are not.  That will make life much easier on Lawrence and much more difficult on Herbert.  Lawrence has been great down the stretch with a 15-to-2 TD/INT ratio in his last nine games and is living up to his full potential under Pederson.

The Chargers rank 28th against the run allowing 145.8 yards per game and dead last (32nd) at 5.4 yards per carry.  The Jaguars rank 12th against the run at 114.8 yards per game and 7th at 4.2 yards per carry.  Travis Etienne, who has rushed for 1,125 yards and 5.1 per carry this season, is going to have a monster game to lead the way.  I trust Pederson to stick to the run knowing this is his greatest advantage in this game.

The Chargers are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after scoring 25 points or more in two consecutive games.  Wrong team favored here given all the factors working in Jacksonville's favor, including momentum, rushing, coaching and rest and preparation advantages.  Roll with the Jaguars Saturday.

BONUS FREE NFL TEASERS:

7-Point Teaser: 49ers -2.5/Bengals -2.5 or better

6-Point Teaser: Jaguars +8.5/Bucs +8.5

20* Seahawks/49ers NFC No-Brainer on UNDER 43

There is a flood watch in Santa Clara on Saturday with a 100% chance of rain and 30-40 MPH winds in the morning.  It is expected to clear out a little by game time, but it's likely going to be a sloppy field worst case.  We don't need the weather help to cash this UNDER, but it's certainly a bonus.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 3rd meeting this season between these division rivals.  The 49ers won 27-7 for 34 combined points in the first meeting.  Seattle's only score came on a blocked FG return TD.  The 49ers won 21-13 in the 2nd meeting for 34 combined points again.  Seattle's lone TD came in garbage time trailing 21-6 with under four minutes to play.

So this Seattle offense has only scored one TD in eight quarters against this elite 49ers defense this season, and it came in garbage time of a blowout.  The 49ers rank 1st in scoring defense at 16.3 points per game, 1st in total defense at 300.6 yards per game and 4th at 5.0 yards per play.  Nothing is going to come easy for Seattle, which has average just 246.5 yards per game in two meetings with the 49ers this season.

Seattle's defense has been playing much better down the stretch.  They have held their last four opponents to an average of just 16.8 points per game in their last four games, which is impressive when you consider they faced the 49ers and Chiefs during this stretch.  They held the Chiefs to just 297 total yards, the Jets to 279 total yards and the Rams to 269 total yards in their last three games heading into the playoffs.  But Seattle is scoring just 16.3 points per game in its last four games overall as well.

Wild Card Round UNDERS are 27-11 dating back to 2012.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Seahawks last four games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in 49ers last four playoff games.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

BONUS FREE NFL TEASERS:

7-Point Teaser: 49ers -2.5/Bengals -2.5 or better

6-Point Teaser: Jaguars +8.5/Bucs +8.5

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Commanders +7

The Dallas Cowboys are technically still alive for the No. 1 seed and the NFC East title.  But the Philadelphia Eagles are 14-point favorites over the New York Giants, who are expected to be resting starters.  They would need the Eagles to lose, and it's just unlikely to happen and they know it.  Expect the Cowboys to maybe try for a quarter or two, but to pull their starters in the second half.

Either way, the Washington Commanders are capable of hanging with the Cowboys even if they were to play all their starters for four quarters.  The Cowboys are getting getting too much respect for their 6-1 run to close out the season.  The run has come against the Giants, Colts, Texans and Eagles at home as well as the Titans on the road.  

The Titans were playing their backups last week in what was a one-score game in the 4th quarter, the Eagles should have beaten them even with Gardner Minshew, and the Cowboys needed a last-second TD to beat the Texans in three of their last four games, while also losing outright at Jacksonville in between.

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Commanders after going 0-3-1 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall against a brutal schedule of the Giants (twice), 49ers and Browns.  They were competitive in all four games.  They outgained the Giants by 99 yards in a tie, outgained the Giants by 95 yards ina. loss, were only outgained by 22 yards by the 49ers in a misleading final, and were only outgained by 41 yards by the Browns in a misleading final.

Carson Wentz returned to the field and promptly threw 3 interceptions to cost them the game against the Browns last week.  So getting Sam Howell at QB or a mix of him and Taylor Heinecke is an upgrade.  Howell could give this offense a spark, and he won't stop coming for four quarters.  The Commanders won't lay down for the Cowboys as these are their hated rivals.  They will try to win this game, and it should be enough to stay inside this inflated number Sunday.

The Cowboys are 1-8 ATS in their last nine January games.  Dallas is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five road games.  The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Dallas is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games following a cover as a double-digit favorite.  Roll with the Commanders Sunday.

25* AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5

Mike Tomlin has never finished worth than .500 in his career as a head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers.  These players take on his mentality and have dug themselves out of a hole to put themselves in position to make the playoffs.  With a win and losses by both the Patriots and Dolphins on Sunday, the Steelers will be going to the playoffs.  Both the Patriots and Dolphins are underdogs in their games.

This turnaround has happened since TJ Watt returned from injury.  Pittsburgh is 58-26-2 with Watt and 1-10 without him in his career.  The Steelers are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming to the Ravens 14-16 after committing three turnovers in the red zone.  They deserved to win that game, too.  They have also beat the Colts, Falcons and Panthers on the road as well as the Raiders at home.

Watt and this Pittsburgh defense aren't allowing anything.  They have held their last six opponents all to 17 points or fewer and an average of just 14.7 points and 259.2 yards per game in those six games.  The last three games have been mighty impressive as they outgained the Panthers by 116 yards and held them to 209 yards, outgained the Raiders by 149 yards and held them to 201 yards and outgained the Ravens by 111 yards and held them to 240 yards.

Kenny Pickett is proving he was deserving as the pick to become their franchise quarterback.  He has delivered two clutch game-winning drives the last two weeks and is his confidence is growing because of it, and so is the confidence his teammates have in him.  Pickett is taking care of the football, too.  He has thrown just one interception in his last six starts.

The Cleveland Browns are getting too much respect for their upset win at Washington last week.  Carson Wentz gave that game away by throwing three interceptions.  Deshaun Watson only had nine completions in the win and has been worse than Jacoby Brissett.  Watson is completing just 56.7% of his passes for 872 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions while averaging just 6.2 yards per attempt in his five starts this season.

The key matchup here is that the Steelers are going to control this game by running the football at will against a soft Cleveland run defense.  The Steelers have rushed for at least 102 yards in seven of their last eight games overall as they are riding Najee Harris.  The Browns rank 25th against the run allowing 134.4 rushing yards per game and 25th allowing 4.8 yards per carry.

Cleveland is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games when playing its 2nd consecutive road game.  Kevin Stefanski is 3-13 ATS after covering the spread in two of his last three games as the coach of the Browns.  The Browns are 18-37-2 ATS in their last 57 games following an ATS win.  The Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games v. a team with a losing record.  Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Browns.  Take the Steelers Sunday.

20* AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Dolphins PK

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Miami Dolphins.  They have gone 0-5 in their last five games overall with each of their last four losses coming by one score.  They were in a one-score game with the 49ers as well in the 4th quarter in a misleading loss.  So they easily could have won any of their last five games.

The Dolphins definitely should have won their last two games as they outgained the Packers by 75 yards in a loss and outgained the Patriots by 84 yards in a loss.  But Tua threw three interceptions after getting concussed against the Packers, and Teddy Bridgewater threw a pick-six against the Patriots that changed the game and knocked him out of the game on the same play.

The Dolphins will likely go to third-string QB Skylar Thompson for this one, and this line is being adjusted too much because of it.  Thompson has gotten his feet wet in a few games already this season and has handled himself well.  Giving him an entire week to prepare to be the starter will pay big dividends for him.  He is ready for this moment.

Let's just look at this from a motivation perspective.  The Dolphins still have a great chance to make the playoffs because a win and a loss by the Patriots gets them in.  Well, the Patriots are 7.5-point road underdogs to the Buffalo Bills as of this writing.  The Bills need that game to secure the No. 1 or No. 2 seed, so they won't make it easy on the Patriots.  I would say the Dolphins are actually the favorites to get the final wild card spot in the AFC given the scenarios.

Meanwhile, the New York Jets were just eliminated from playoff contention with their 23-6 loss at Seattle last week.  That followed up a 19-3 home loss to Jacksonville.  I always like fading teams coming off their 'dream crusher' loss because they have a hard time getting back up off the mat.  The Jets will have a hard time being motivated for this game after just getting eliminated from playoff contention in Week 17.

Plays on home teams (Miami) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 points or more, off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS since 1983.  The Jets are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games vs. AFC East opponents.  Miami is 18-8 ATS in its last 26 home games.  The Dolphins are 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Miami.  

This is also a tough travel spot for the Jets having to come fly home to New York from Seattle to fly back out to Miami to play a game where the temps will be approaching 80 degrees, and I expect the Jets to run out of gas by the 4th quarter.  Roll with the Dolphins Sunday.

20* AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Las Vegas Raiders +7.5

The Las Vegas Raiders would love nothing more than to beat the Chiefs and keep them from a first-round bye and home-field advantage.  They hate the Chiefs and only lost 29-30 at Kansas City as 7.5-point underdogs.  Now they are 7.5-point home dogs in the rematch, so they haven't even adjusted for home-field advantage.

They are clearly adjusting too much for the Derek Carr to Jarrett Stidham at quarterback.  Stidham played under Las Vegas head coach Josh McDaniels in New England, so he knows the system.  And the Raiders had their best offensive performance of the season last week with Stidham at quarterback.

The Raiders racked up 34 points and 500 total yards against the best defense in the NFL in the 49ers.  Stidham went 23-of-34 passing for 365 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions.  He made good use of his top two weapons in DeVante Adams and Darren Waller.  Adams had seven receptions for 153 yards and two touchdowns, while Waller had three receptions for 72 yards and a score.  The Raiders have the firepower to keep up with the Chiefs as they showed in that first meeting, and last week against the 49ers.

The Chiefs just have a way of playing to their level of competition.  That's why they have only covered the spread in four of their 16 games this season.  They just let the lowly Broncos hang around last week in a 27-24 home win as 13.5-point favorites.  That's a Broncos team that was coming off a 51-14 loss to the Rams the previous week.  Plus, all the pressure is on the Chiefs to get the win for the No. 1 seed, so the Raiders will kind of be free rolling here and playing more freely than the Chiefs.

Kansas City is 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 games following a win.  The Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. AFC West opponents.  The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  The Raiders are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Las Vegas is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. AFC West opponents.  Kansas City is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points.  These six trends coming for a mind-blowing 36-1 system backing Las Vegas.  Bet the Raiders Saturday.

20* Vikings/Packers NFC North No-Brainer on Green Bay -3

The Green Bay Packers are about as healthy as they have been all season, and to no surprise it has coincided with their best stretch of the season.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall to get right back into the playoff hunt.  They need some help, but they are doing their part, and they will want revenge on the Vikings after losing at Minnesota in Week 1.

The Vikings are the most fraudulent 12-3 team in the history of the NFL.  They are 11-0 in one score games this season and have only outscored their opponents by 5 total points on the season.  Their luck runs out this week against a Packers team that wants it more.  After all, the Vikings are locked into the No. 2 or No. 3 seed basically, which isn't that big of a difference.

While the Packers are outgaining their opponents by 6 yards per game on the season, the Vikings are actually getting outgained by nearly 50 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play.  That's unheard of for a 12-3 team.  They rank 28th in scoring defense at 24.9 points per game, 31st in total defense at 402.3 yards per game and 31st at 6.0 yards per play allowed.  That's not a championship defense, and the Packers have been one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL since getting all their weapons healthy.

Kirk Cousins has always been worse outdoors and worse in any games that don't start at 1:00 EST on a Sunday.  He does not handle these big stages well.  It's going to be one of the best atmospheres of the season at Lambeau Field Sunday afternoon, and home-field advantage is worth at least 3 points for the Packers in this one.  I think they're the better team right now and need it more.

Green Bay is 9-1 ATS in home games vs. conference opponents over the last two seasons.  The Vikings are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Packers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home meetings with the Vikings.  The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rams/Chargers OVER 40.5

The Los Angeles Chargers blew it in Week 18 last season against the Raiders with a chance to go to the playoffs with a win.  Well, they don't have to worry about that any more as they just clinched a playoff spot over the Colts with a win on Monday Night Football.  I think they will be playing loose and free in this game against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 17 and that favors their offense.

This Chargers offense has been much better since getting Mike Williams and Keenan Allen back from injury.  The Chargers have averaged over 370 yards per game in their last three games with these two.  Williams has 14 receptions for 259 yards and a touchdown in his last three games since returning from injury, while Allen has 31 receptions for 282 yards in his last three games alongside Williams.

The Rams have been playing loose and free since Baker Mayfield took over at quarterback.  And now he has three games under his belt in Sean McVay's system and is clearly getting a lot more comfortable.  That showed last week when the Rams hung 51 points and 388 total yards on a very good Denver defense.  Mayfield had one of the most efficient games of his career, completing 24-of-28 passes for 230 yards and two touchdowns without an interception.  The playbook will be even more open for him this week against the Chargers.

The Rams also finally got their running game going last week with 158 yards to help out Mayfield.  Well, the weakness of this Chargers defense is stopping the run.  They rank 26th in allowing 140.5 rushing yards per game and 31st allowing 5.3 yards per carry.  So Mayfield will not have to do it all.  I know the Chargers have been better of late defensively, but they have also benefitted from facing a couple terrible offenses in the Colts and Titans the last two weeks.

I think the fact that the Chargers have gone under the total in four consecutive games is keeping this total way lower than it should be.  Those totals were all 45 or higher.  Now this total is only 40.5, which is a big adjustment and way too big in my opinion.  This total should be closer to 45, especially with the life this Rams offense has showed of late.  And it's not like the Rams have been great defensively as they rank in the bottom half of the league in scoring defense and have allowed 24 or more points in five of their last seven games overall.  Aaron Donald remains out for the Rams, and the Chargers have a ton of key injuries on defense as well.

The OVER is 6-0 in Chargers last six games after a win by 10 points or more.  The OVER is 6-0 in Rams last six games after a home win by 10 points or more.  The OVER is 7-0 in Rams last seven road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  These four trends combine for a 24-1 system backing the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Jets/Seahawks OVER 41.5

Mike White makes his much anticipated return to the lineup for the New York Jets this week.  This offense has been much more efficient with White under center than Zach Wilson or Joe Flacco.  This total against the Seahawks is way too low given that White is playing and the forecast.  It's expected to be 45 degrees with 2 MPH winds and only a 4% chance of precipitation in Seattle Sunday afternoon.

The Seahawks are a dead nuts OVER team because they have a solid offense and a terrible defense.  The Seahawks rank 9th in scoring offense at 24.3 points per game, 13th in total offense at 348.5 yards per game and 7th at 5.8 yards per play.  This Seattle offense is expected to get Tyler Lockett back from injury this week, and RB Kenneth Walker should be good to go as well.

White put up 31 points and 466 yards against the Bears and 22 points and 486 total yards against the Vikings in his two healthy starts this week.  He will have a big game against this Seattle defense as well.  The Seahawks rank 29th in scoring defense at 25.3 points per game, 29th in total defense at 373.4 yards per game and 24th at 5.7 yards per play allowed.  

No question the Jets have a good defense, but that is being factored into this total too much as this is one of the lowest totals this week.  The Jaguars found plenty of success moving the football against them on the road last week racking up 365 total yards, but they had to settle for four field goals.  The Lions had 359 yards against them the previous week and the Seahawks should find similar success as well.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cardinals/Falcons OVER 41

The Arizona Cardinals and Atlanta Falcons have nothing to play for this week.  As a result, this is going to be a care-free game with plenty of offense and little defense being played.  It will also be played inside the dome in Atlanta, and this is a very low total for a dome game.

The Cardinals are expected to get back Colt McCoy at quarterback this week.  He is one of the best backup QB's in the NFL.  He will be able to move the football and score points on an Atlanta defense that ranks 23rd in the NFL in scoring at 23.3 points per game, 28th in total defense at 373.0 yards per game and 29th at 5.8 yards per play.

Desmond Ridder will be making his third start of the season for the Falcons.  We saw what Baker Mayfield did last week in his third start for the Rams.  I think Ridder will have easily his best game yet as this is a big step down in class of opponent defense after facing two very good stop units in the Saints and Ravens in his first two starts.  Now Ridder will be up against an Arizona defense that ranks 30th in scoring defense at 26.1 points per game and 22nd in total defense at 354.8 yards per game.

The OVER is 7-2 in Cardinals last nine games overall.  The OVER is 5-1 in Cardinals last six games vs. NFC opponents.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 67, 54, 57 and 47 points.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Atlanta.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Saints/Eagles OVER 44

The Philadelphia Eagles are a dead nuts OVER team right now with or without Jalen Hurts.  He's questionable to return this week, but Gardner Minshew once again showed he's probably the best backup QB in the league by nearly upsetting the Cowboys in a 34-40 road loss last week.  I'm good with the OVER In this game with Minshew or Hurts.

The Eagles and their opponents have combined for 45 or more points in five consecutive games and eight of their last nine games overall.  The OVER is 7-2 in those nine games.  They will get their points, and I expect the Saints to chip in enough to push this total OVER the number.

This total has been set too low due to the Saints going under the total in four consecutive games.  But they played in terrible conditions last week in Cleveland, and they have faced two elite defenses in the 49ers and Bucs during this stretch as well.  The Eagles have some injuries in their secondary that can be exploited as we saw by the Cowboys last week.  They have also allowed at least 99 rushing yards in 10 of their last 11 games overall and the Saints are a good rushing team.  I have the feeling they are going to have to get more pass-happy this week to try and keep up with Philadelphia.

After some terrible weather last weekend, the weather looks good almost everywhere this week, including in Philadelphia.  The forecast is calling for 56 degrees and 11 MPH winds with only a 7% chance of precipitation at kickoff on Sunday as of this writing on Friday.  That sounds like perfect conditions for a shootout to me for an outdoor game.

The Saints and Eagles have combined for at least 45 points in five of their last six meetings.  The OVER is 11-1 in Eagles last 12 home games.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Philadelphia.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Chargers -3

The Los Angeles Chargers are coming up clutch when these games matter the most here down the stretch.  They have won two consecutive games against fellow playoff contenders in Miami and Tennessee and were more dominant than the final scores showed in both of those games.  They outgained the Dolphins by 213 yards in a 23-17 victory and outgained the Titans by 81 yards in a 17-14 victory.

The headlines are that Justin Herbert finally has his to star receivers healthy in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, which is huge and true, but the real substance of this team is what the defense has done the last two weeks.  They held Miami's high-octane attack to just 17 points and 219 total yards, and they held Derrick Henry and Tennessee's rushing attack in check while limiting them to 14 points and 284 total yards.  Now they finally have a defense to go with one of the most talented offenses in the league.

While the Chargers have a lot to play for tied for 6th in the AFC with the Dolphins and only one game ahead of the Patriots, the Indianapolis Colts have nothing to play for at this point.  They just lost RB Jonathan Taylor to a season-ending injury and he means everything to their offense.  They have decided to go with Nick Foles over Matt Ryan for this game, and it won't make any difference as the offensive line is terrible, and there are no proven weapons on this offense now without Taylor.

The Colts have to be gutted after blowing the largest lead in NFL history, losing 36-39 (OT) to the Vikings last week after opening with a 33-0 lead on the heels of two defensive touchdowns.  Taylor went out after getting a big lead and the offense couldn't sustain drives without him.  The defense has to be gassed after spending basically the entire second half on the field.  They gave up 518 total yards to the Vikings in defeat.  I don't trust their mental state right now as Jeff Saturday is a dead man walking, and these players know it.

I grabbed a good early number on the Chargers -3 Monday knowing this line would move in their favor, once again beating another line move.  I obviously don't like it as much at anything more than -3.  I would downgrade it to a 20* at -3.5 to -4.5, so adjust your best accordingly.  This is why it's important to get a long-term subscription instead of buying plays on the day of games so you can get the best numbers, too.

Plays against any team (Indianapolis) - after going over the total by 35 points or more total in their last three games, a bad team winning 25-40% of their games on the season are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Chargers are 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Indianapolis.  Bet the Chargers Monday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Packers/Dolphins OVER 46.5

I locked in this great number on Monday before the Packers played as it was available at pretty much every book.  It reopened higher, so we got a great number here.  I would downgrade it to a 15* play at anything above 49 at this point, but I'm glad myself and my long-term clients got this great number early.  It's just another reason you should sign up long-term to get the best numbers, too, rather than bet on the day of the game.  I consistently beat the line moves, which puts us at a big advantage on the books.

But let's get into the breakdown of this game.  With some terrible weather forecast across the country, this won't be one of them.  Temperatures will be in the 50's in Miami Sunday with light winds and a small chance of precipitation.  It will be balmy compared to the rest of the country and it will help us cash in this OVER ticket.

Maimi is a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They have scored 29 or more points in five of their last seven games overall.  But they have allowed an average of 29.3 points per game and 409.7 yards per game in their last three games.  They are decimated by injuries on defense, especially in the secondary.  If they don't get pressure teams consistently find big plays against them right now.

The Packers are in the best shape on offense they have been all season.  Aaron Rodgers has his top five receivers and his top two running backs all healthy right now.  He is no longer wearing a wrap on his thumb and that's a non-issue at this point.  They basically just scored 31 points on the Rams as they kneeled it at the 1-yard line to finish the game after scoring 28 points against the Bears and 33 points against the Eagles in their previous two games.

We've seen this Green Bay defense shredded against the best offenses this season, and Miami classifies as one of the best offenses.  The Packers allowed 27 points to the Bills, 28 to the Cowboys, 27 to the Titans and 40 to the Eagles in recent weeks.  Miami should be able to do whatever it wants against this Green Bay defense both on the ground and through the air.

The OVER is 10-1 in Packers last 11 games in the second half of the season vs. a team with a winning record.  Miami is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games in the second half of the season vs. good offensive teams averaging at least 5.65 yards per play.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Raiders/Steelers AFC Saturday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh -2

The Pittsburgh Steelers were already plan on honoring Franco Harris on the 50th anniversary of the "Immaculate Reception" this weekend.  This game will mean even more to players, coaches and fans alike now that Harris passed away earlier this week.  This is going to be a surreal atmosphere for a Pittsburgh game and an even bigger home-field advantage than normal.

We're backing a Steelers team playing some very good football coming into this one.  They have won three of their last four games overall while outgaining all four opponents with their lone loss coming when they committed three turnovers in the red zone in a 2-point loss to the Ravens.  They outgained the Panthers by 116 yards last week in a 24-16 road victory.

Forecasts are calling for single-digit temperatures and 15 MPH winds in Pittsburgh Sunday.  I'll gladly back the blue collar team used to these conditions over the dome team in the Las Vegas Raiders who are used to warm weather.  Derek Carr is 0-5 with 5 interceptions and has never thrown for more than 220 yards in games with a temperature of less than 37 degrees in his career. I'll also back the best unit on the field, which is this Pittsburgh defense that is allowing only 16.3 points per game and 278.5 yards per game over its last four games.  This great run defensively has coincided with the return of TJ Watt, who means everything to this team.

The Raiders are getting too much respect for a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS run against a very easy schedule of the Broncos, Seahawks, Chargers, Rams and Patriots.  They got a miracle last week against the Patriots to avoid blowing yet another double-digit lead with one of the dumbest plays you will ever see on the final play of the game.  Their luck runs out this week against a motivated Steelers team that simply will want it more.

The Raiders are just 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS on the road this season.  Las Vegas is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 road games vs. AFC North opponents.  The Raiders are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Las Vegas is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing record.  I trust Pittsburgh a lot more in this spot laying a short number at home.  Take the Steelers Saturday.

20* Eagles/Cowboys NFC East No-Brainer on OVER 46

I cashed in the Cowboys/Jaguars OVER last week in a game that saw 74 combined points, and I'm back on the OVER in a Cowboys game this week.  They are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  The Cowboys have scored at least 27 points in seven consecutive games now while also gaining at least 385 yards in all seven games.  Their defense has slipped down the stretch, allowing at least 19 points in six of their last seven games overall.

This total has been bet down from 50.5 to 46 now with the news that the Eagles will be without Jalen Hurts.  But Gardner Minshew is arguably the best backup quarterback in the NFL and the Eagles will still hang a big number with him under center.  The game plan will change to be more pass-happy, but that also benefits the OVER.

The Eagles are averaging 37 points per game in their last four games overall and have ample weapons to make Minshew's job much easier both in the passing game and the running game.  Dallas Goedert could make his return at tight end this week, too.  Minshew will be up against a banged up Dallas secondary that will be missing several key players, plus LB Vander Esch is out with a shoulder injury suffered last week against the Jaguars.  

The Eagles also have key injuries on the defensive line and in the secondary, most notably DE Robert Quinn who they traded for out with a knee injury.  So all the key playmakers for both teams are healthy right now with the exception of Hurts.  And most of the notable injuries are all on defense for both teams.

I don't love playing overs in division games, but this one is different.  Cooper Rush was the quarterback of the Cowboys in that first meeting, while Hurts was the quarterback for the Eagles.  These are two completely different offenses with Dak Prescott and Minshew running the show, and that element of surprise on a short week will favor the offenses over the defenses.  Plus, in a weekend filled with terrible weather everywhere, this game will be played in a dome in perfect scoring conditions.

I also don't think there will be as much intensity for this division rivalry as there would have been if it meant more.  The Eagles basically have the NFC East locked up only needing one more win in their final three games, while the Cowboys are basically locked into the 4th seed in the NFC.  Dallas beat Philadelphia 51-26 at home last season for 77 combined points.  Three of the last four meetings have seen 54 or more combined points with the lone exception being that Cooper Rush game.  

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  The OVER is 6-1 in Cowboys last seven games overall.  The OVER is 6-2 in Eagles last eight games overall.  Dallas is 7-0 OVER in its last seven home games after allowing 6 or more yards per play in its previous game.  They just gave up 503 yards and 7.3 yards per play against the Jaguars last week.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NFL Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Commanders +7

I have personally cashed in the 49ers three times during their current 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS run.  I won with them over Tampa Bay two weeks ago and last week over Seattle.  I have had a good beat on this team.  But now it's time to 'sell high' on the 49ers as I think this is a terrible spot for them, and you're starting to pay a tax to back them this week.

The 49ers just clinched the NFC West with their 21-13 win at Seattle last week.  Now they are in a letdown spot as there's not much for them to play for the rest of the way other than playoff seeding.  I could see them losing this game outright as a result, let alone covering this 7-point spread.  Look for Kyle Shanahan to manage injured players the rest of the way and to not force them into action, meaning a lot of backups will be on the field for them.

While the 49ers don't need this game, the Washington Commanders need this game like blood after losing to the New York Giants last week.  They are now just 0.5 games ahead of both teh Seahawks and Lions for the 7th and final playoff spot in the NFC.  I know I'm going to get a max motivated Commanders team this week, and that should be enough to cover this spread.

The Commanders are also one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now and a lot more healthy than the 49ers.  They should get CB St.-Juste back this week as well as DE Chase Young, who they've been waiting to get back all season.  The Commanders will still be fresh after having a bye week prior to that Giants game as well, which negates the 49ers' rest advantage after playing last Thursday.

Oddsmakers are expecting a defensive battle here with a 37.5-point total, so points are at a premium and worth more.  Getting 7 points with the Commanders is too much this week, and we are only getting them because the refs beat them and they beat themselves last week against the Giants.  It's time to 'buy low' on the Commanders now.  

It's a Washington team that is 6-2-1 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Commanders have outgained six of their last eight opponents while only getting outgained by 18 and 38 yards in the other two contests.  In fact, the Commanders haven't lost by more than one score in any of their last 10 games, so they just have a knack of playing in close games.  That makes for a 10-0 system backing them pertaining to this 7-point spread.  Roll with the Commanders Saturday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Browns -3

Deshaun Watson led the Cleveland Browns to a 13-3 home victory over the Baltimore Ravens last week.  It was a big weight lifted off his shoulders, and certainly a much friendlier atmosphere playing at home.  Well, he and the Browns will be back home this week where they have been at their best all season, going 4-3 SU & 4-3 ATS while outscoring opponents by 3.0 points per game.

Cleveland should be more than a 3-point home favorite over New Orleans, which has been terrible on the road this season.  The Saints are just 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS on the road this season and losing by 6.0 points per game on average.  This won't be just another road game for them, either.

Forecasts are calling for temperatures around 12 degrees and 30 MPH winds with a 50% chance of precipitation.  I'll gladly back the Browns, who are used to these conditions, over the dome team in the Saints that aren't build for these conditions.

Due to the forecast, this game will be played on the ground, and I trust Cleveland's ground game over that of New Orleans.  Nick Chubb is a go this week and leads a Cleveland rushing attack that ranks 5th in the NFL at 149.0 rushing yards per game and 11th at 4.7 yards per carry.  Compare that to New Orleans, which ranks just 21st in rushing offense at 111.3 yards per game and 18th at 4.3 yards per carry.  Both teams are pretty much dead even against the run, too.

The injury news is good for the Browns with DE Garrett, CB Ward, TE Njoku, WR Cooper and RB Chubb all listed as probable.  The injury news for the Saints is not so good with WR Olave and WR Landry both out for this one.  Andy Dalton will be without his two favorite targets.  It will be a factor when the Browns take an early lead and the Saints have to try and throw to get back in the game.

The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  The Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last five Saturday games.  New Orleans is 0-6 ATS after playing a home game this season.  New Orleans is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. good rushing teams that average 4.5 or more yards per carry in the second half of the season.  These four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing Cleveland.  Take the Browns Saturday.

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Seahawks +10

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Seattle Seahawks this week.  They have gone 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall despite being favored in three of those games and not being more than a 3-point underdog once.  They go from being overvalued to undervalued now as 10-point dogs.  They haven't been double-digit dogs all season until now.

The spot is a good one with the Seahawks coming in on extra rest after playing last Thursday, while the Chiefs are coming off an overtime game against the Houston Texans and off three consecutive road games overall.  I'm sure the Chiefs have a lot to deal with back at home with it being Christmas after being on the road the last three weeks, so they won't be fully focused for this one.

That's nothing new for the Chiefs, who are having a terrible time putting teams away.  They lost by 3 at Cincinnati, only beat the Broncos by 6 and only beat the Texans by 6 in OT after being 14-point favorites.  The Seahawks will never be out of this game because the Chiefs cannot stop anyone, allowing 24 or more points in four of their last five games overall.

After playing four tough defenses in their last five games in the Bucs, Rams, Panthers and 49ers, the Seahawks should get right offensively here.  They have still scored 24 or more points in six of their last eight games overall.  Kenneth Walker should have a big game on the ground as he has extra time to heal his ankle after returning last week.  Geno Smith will dice up this Kansas City secondary.

No question the Chiefs are going to get their points, but they aren't looking to run up the score.  They just want to get in and get out with a win, which is what they have been doing for the majority of the season.  The Chiefs have only three wins all season by more than 10 points.

Kansas City is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Chiefs are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Kansas City is 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 games following a SU win.  Pete Carroll is 19-4 ATS following two or more consecutive losses as the coach of Seattle.  Andy Reid is 0-8 ATS in home games following three consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse as a head coach having never covered in this situation.  Bet the Seahawks Saturday.

15* Jaguars/Jets AFC ANNIHILATOR on Jacksonville +2

We have two teams headed in opposite directions and two quarterbacks headed in opposite direction in this matchup Thursday night.  I'll side with the team playing with confidence and with the better quarterback over the team that is slumping and doesn't believe in its quarterback.

Don't look now but the Jaguars have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with upset wins over the Ravens, Titans and Cowboys to pull within one game of first place of the Titans in the AFC South.  They host the Titans in Week 18, so they are very much alive to win this division now and believing they can.

A lot of that belief comes from the performance of the offense and Lawrence.  He has a 14-to-1 TD/INT ratio in his last six games and is completing 66% of his passes for 3,520 yards with 24 touchdowns and only seven interceptions on the season.  He is also a dual-threat with 239 rushing yards and 4.9 per carry with four scores.  The Jaguars are loaded with weapons at receiver for him on the outside, and they have a steady rushing attack with Travis Etienne, who has rushed for 917 yards and 5.0 per carry on the season.

Zach Wilson is completing just 54.9% of his passes for 1,596 yards with six touchdowns and six interceptions while rushing for 101 yards and 3.7 per carry with one score.  He is only playing right now because Mike White is hurt, and it's a big downgrade for them at quarterback.  They had built up some momentum with White but that's gone now.

The Jets do have the better defense, but I don't think that's enough to make up for the advantage the Jaguars have on offense.  The weather will be bad for this game with a 100% chance of precipitation and 20 MPH winds.  So the team that runs the ball better and takes care of the football better is likely going to win, and I trust Lawrence over Wilson as far as turnovers go.

The Jets haven't been able to run the ball very well since they lost Breece Hall at running back.  In their last five games, the Jets were held to 59 yards on 23 carries by the Patriots, 76 yards on 22 carries by the Bills and 50 yards on 22 carries by the Lions.  They only had success against the terrible Bears and Vikings defenses.  The Jaguars just rushed for 192 yards on the Cowboys last week.  They rank 6th in the NFL at 4.9 yards per carry while the Jets rank 21st at 4.3 yards per carry.  The Jets are only slightly better against the run defensively allowing 4.1 per carry compared to 4.2 per carry for Jacksonville.

The Jets have lost three straight and four of their last five games overall with their lone win coming against the Bears who were without Justin Fields.  Wrong team favored here.  Take the Jaguars Thursday.

20* Rams/Packers ESPN No-Brainer on Green Bay -7

The Green Bay Packers kept their slim playoff hopes alive with a 28-19 win over the Bears.  They have since had a bye week and are as healthy as they have been all season.  Aaron Rodgers was practicing without a wrap on his thumb for the first time since he injured it this week.  I love the spot for the Packers on Monday Night Football.

Rodgers has his full compliment of weapons now with Lazard, Watson, Tonyan, Cobb, Jones and Doubs all healthy.  Watson has really emerged as a playmaker with eight touchdowns in his last four games.  They scored 33 points on the Eagles the week prior to scoring 28 against the Bears.

The Packers should have their way on offense against a Rams defense that is expected to be withotu Aaron Donald again.  The Rams have allowed 26 or more points in four of their last five games overall.  But the bigger concern is on the other side of the football for Los Angeles.

The Rams are without their three best players on offense in Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Allan Robinson.  They were struggling even with these guys, and it has obviously been even worse without them.  The Rams rank 29th in scoring offense at 16.8 points per game, 31st in total offense at 283.0 yards per game and 32nd at 4.7 yards per play.  They have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL which is perhaps the biggest issue for them.

No, Baker Mayfield is not the answer.  He pulled off a miracle erasing a 16-3 deficit in the final four minutes to beat the Raiders 17-16 last week.  But that works in our favor here because this line is now lower than it should be after the Rams pulled off the upset.  Let's just look at it from a line value perspective.  

The Rams were 6.5-point home dogs to the Raiders, and now are only 7-point road dogs to the Packers.  I think the Packers and Raiders are pretty much equal teams, so when adjusting for home-field advantage this line should be closer to Packers -10.  Then throw in the fact that it's a warm weather team in the Rams going outdoors to play in freezing temps at Lambeau Field with the forecast calling for low 20's, and the Packers should definitely be more than 7-point favorites.  They have one of the biggest home-field advantages in the NFL late in the season.

The Packers simply own the Rams, going 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings with the Packers winning by 8 points or more in all seven victories.  They won by 8, 14, 14 and 21 points in their last four home meetings with the Rams.  Green Bay is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. NFC opponents.  Bet the Packers Monday.

20* Giants/Commanders NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Washington -4.5

I think the Washington Commanders are in the best spot of any team all season this week.  They played the Giants two weeks ago, had a bye last week, and now get to face the Giants again.  They are rested and ready to go, plus they have been game planning for the Giants for three weeks now.  This one has blowout written all over it given the favorable spot for them.

These teams are both 7-5-1 but one is legit and one is a fraud, and both are going in opposite directions.  The Commanders are 6-1-1 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  The Giants are 0-3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS in their last four games overall.  They are coming off a 22-48 home loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Giants are as banged up as any team in the NFL right now.  They are missing playmakers at receiver, Saquon Barkley isn't right, and they have cluster injuries on defense.  That defense has been gashed for 31.8 points per game and 400.8 yards per game in their last four games.  The rush defense has really been gashed for an average of 186.8 rushing yards per game allowed in the last four.

Washington has rushed for at least 128 yards in seven of its last eight games overall and will find plenty of success against the Giants on the ground to take pressure off of Taylor Heineke.  They rushed for 165 yards and managed 411 total yards in that first meeting with the Giants two weeks ago.  They outgained the Giants by 95 yards in that game and deserved better than a tie.

The favorable spot for Washington should have them more than 4.5-point favorites here.  They were 2.5-point road favorites in that first meeting, and are now 4.5-point home favorites in the rematch.  That's only a 2-point adjustment for flipping home fields.  It's worth more than 2, and it's certainly worth more than 2 given the favorable spot for the Commanders off the bye and with the Giants gassed and having cluster injuries everywhere.

The Giants are 1-8 ATS in their last nine December games.  Washington is 23-6 ATS in its last 29 games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 6 or more yards per play in the second half of the season.  Ron Rivera is 16-5 ATS in home games after winning four or five of his last six games as a head coach.  This one has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Commanders Sunday night.

15* Titans/Chargers AFC ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -2.5

This Los Angeles Chargers offense is so much more potent when both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are on the field at the same time.  Williams returned last week to join Allen as the Chargers beat the Dolphins 23-17 in what was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed.

The Chargers racked up 432 total yards and held the Dolphins to 219 total yards, outgaining them by 213 yards.  Justin Herbert went 39-of-51 passing for 367 yards in the win.  Williams had 6 receptions for 116 yards and a touchdown while Allen had 12 receptions for 92 yards.  Austin Ekeler also had 104 scrimmage yards and a score.  This is one of the best offenses in the NFL with Herbert and this trio of weapons.

Now the Chargers go up against a Tennessee Titans defense that is one of the most banged up in the NFL right now.  They just allowed 36 points and 428 total yards to the Jaguars last week after giving up 35 points and 453 total yards to the Eagles the previous week.  I just don't know how the Titans are going to get any stops in this game.

On the other side of the football, the Titans are also one of the worst units in the league.  They rank 26th in scoring offense at 18.5 points per game, 29th in total offense at 296.9 yards per game and 22nd at 5.2 yards per play.  The Titans are the most fraudulent team with a winning record in the NFL if it's not the Giants.  They are getting outgained by 68.1 yards per game on the season.  But that winning 7-6 record has them overvalued in recent weeks, including this week as only 2.5-point road dogs to the Chargers.

Los Angeles has a chance of getting several key players back on defense this week, while Tennessee remains banged up everywhere, including at receiver, along the offensive line and at all three levels on defense.  Mike Vraebel has done a tremendous job of getting everything he could out of this team the last couple seasons, but they are finally starting to break due to all these injuries.  The Titans still have a two-game lead in the AFC South so they can afford a loss, while the Chargers can only make the playoffs through the wild card.  So they will be the team playing with more of a sense of urgency this week as well.

The Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Chargers are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Titans.  Tennessee is 1-6 ATS in its last seven trips to Los Angeles.  Los Angeles is 33-8 ATS in its last 41 games vs. AFC South opponents.  The Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after two straight games attempting 40 or more passes.  Roll with the Chargers Sunday.

20* Bengals/Bucs Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cincinnati -3.5

The Cincinnati Bengals are 9-2 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The books haven't been able to catch up to how good this team really is.  Joe Burrow is legitimately a Top 5 quarterback in this league if not the best, and he has some of the best weapons in the NFL.  Plus, the Bengals have one of the most underrated defenses in the league as well.

Cincinnati ranks 7th in scoring offense at 25.8 points per game, 5th in total offense at 371.7 yards per game and 10th at 5.7 yards per play.  The Bengals rank 11th in scoring defense at 20.4 points per game, 14th in total defense at 331.1 yards per game and 14th at 5.4 yards per play.

Tampa Bay has a good defense, but they just gave up 35 points to San Francisco and third-string QB Brock Purdy last week.  They are a tired defense missing several key players who were playing on a short week after needing a 13-point comeback in the final few minutes of the 4th quarter to beat the Saints on Monday Night Football.  They wore down against the 49ers, and now after traveling clear out West they have to travel back home this week and face a Bengals offense that will test them at ever level.

But this is a fade of Tampa Bays' offense more than anything.  The Bucs rank 28th in scoring offense at 17.2 points per game and 26th at 5.0 yards per play.  Tom Brady has no time to throw because of a depleted offensive line that has been terrible all season.  The Bucs cannot run the ball to take pressure off Brady as they rank dead last (32nd) in rushing at 72.9 yards per game and 32nd at 3.3 yards per carry.

While the Bengals are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, the Bucs are just 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The books have been undervaluing the Bengals all season and overvaluing the Bucs, and that's the case again this week with Cincinnati as just a short road favorite.  The Bengals will remain motivated as they are tied with the Ravens for 1st place in the AFC North and only one game back of the Bills and Chiefs for the No. 1 seed.  The Bucs can lose this game and still control their own destiny in the putrid NFC South, so winning this game isn't as important for them as it is for the Bengals.  Take the Bengals Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Carolina Panthers -2

Both the Carolina Panthers and Pittsburgh Steelers sit at 5-8 this season.  But since the Carolina Panthers play in the weak NFC South, they are just one game out of first place with a lot to play for the rest of the way.  In fact, they control their own destiny to win the division because they already beat the Bucs and play them again.

The Steelers just had their playoff hopes crushed last week with a devastating 14-16 home loss to the Baltimore Ravens and backup QB's Huntley and Brown.  They lost Kenny Pickett to a concussion early in that game, and Mitch Trubisky came in and moved the ball down the field, but threw three interceptions in the red zone that cost them the game.  I don't think there's much difference between Trubisky or Pickett, so I'm not concerned who starts this week.  I think the spot is terrible for the Steelers as that loss to the hated Ravens is the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

I like the way the Panthers are trending and the fact that they have a lot more to play for this week.  These players love Steve Wilks and are playing hard for him.  They have gone 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with three outright wins as underdogs.  They are 3-0 at home during this stretch with three blowout wins over the Bucs by 18, the Falcons by 10 and the Broncos by 13.

The Panthers should still be fresh this week because they had a bye two weeks ago prior to going into Seattle and winning 30-24 last week.  The offense has gotten a spark as Sam Darnold is 2-0 as a starter and leading the Panthers to 26.5 points per game in the two wins.  And this is one of the better defenses in the league as the Panthers rank 13th in scoring defense at 22.3 points per game and 12th at 5.3 yards per play allowed.  Pittsburgh allows 5.7 yards per play for comparison.

The Steelers have been gashed on the ground in two consecutive games giving up 146 rushing yards to the Falcons and 215 rushing yards to the Ravens.  That's bad news for them going up against this Carolina rushing attack that has produced 169 or more rushing yards in five of its last seven games overall.  I think the Panthers can control this game by moving the ball on the ground, and Sam Darnold just needs to keep managing the game and making timely play-action completions as he has in his first two starts.   Pittsburgh is scoring just 15.6 points per game on the road this season.

The Steelers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a loss by 6 points or fewer.  Take the Panthers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Eagles/Bears OVER 48.5

The Philadelphia Eagles are humming on offense right now scoring 41.0 points per game in their last three games overall.  They are now the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL.  They can name their number against what is the worst defense in the NFL currently in the Chicago Bears.

The Bears have allowed 27 or more points in six consecutive games and an average of 33.5 points per game during this stretch.  But this Chicago offense has really taken off with Justin Fields.  In the last six games started by Fields, the Bears are averaging 27.8 points per game. He is clearly recovered from his shoulder injury after leading the Bears to 409 total yards against the Packers in his return from injury prior to the bye last week.

I expect the Eagles to get out to a lead in this game and to continue to score at will similarly to what they did against the Giants last week when they kept pouring it on with 48 points.  And Fields and the Bears will be forced to go hurry up to try and keep up with the Eagles.  The one weakness of the Eagles is their running defense as they have allowed 99 or more rushing yards in eight of their last nine games.  They rank 24th allowing 4.7 yards per carry.  The strength of the Bears is their rushing offense that ranks 1st in the NFL at 189.2 rushing yards per game.

The forecast looks good for a shootout for this time of year in Chicago with 12 MPH winds and 0% chance of precipitation.  The OVER is 7-1 in Eagles last eight games overall.  The OVER is 7-0 in Eagles last seven games following a win.  The OVER is 39-16 in Eagles last 55 December games.  The OVER is 7-0 in Bears last seven games overall.  The OVER is 10-1 in Bears last 11 games following an ATS loss.  These are both dead nuts OVER teams right now.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Lions/Jets Non-Conference ANNIHILATOR on OVER 44

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have combined for 49 or more points in five consecutive games and two of those games were played outdoors at New York and at Chicago.  They have averaged 32.2 points per game in their last five games and 54.8 combined points per game in their last five as well, so this is a very low total of 44 for a game involving the Lions.

The New York Jets have come to life on offense with Mike White at quarterback.  They put up 31 points and 466 total yards against the Bears in White's first start.  They put up 486 total yards in the Vikings in his second start.  And last week they had 309 total yards against a very good Bills defense in terrible weather in Buffalo with heavy winds.

Well, the weather is expected to be very good for a game in New York in December.  Forecasts are calling for 38 degrees, only 10 MPH winds and zero chance of precipitation.  That's pretty great weather outdoors for a shootout for this time of year.

The Jets could set a couple offensive linemen back this week and Cory Davis is questionable.  They may be without some key players on defense, most notably DL Quinnen Williams who is questionable with a calf injury.  And while the Lions are playing better defensively of late, they still rank 31st in scoring defense at 26.7 points per game, 31st in total defense at 403.2 yards per game and 32nd at 6.2 yards per play.

The OVER is 9-1 in Lions last 10 road games following four or more consecutive ATS wins.  The OVER is 8-1 in Lions last nine games following an ATS win.  The OVER is 9-2 in Jets last 11 games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more yards per game.  The OVER is 6-1 in Jets last seven games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cowboys/Jaguars OVER 47.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They combined for 55 points with the Ravens, 54 with the Lions and 58 with the Titans in their last three games.  It should be more of the same against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday with the forecast perfect for a shootout in Jacksonville with temps in the 50's and less than 10 MPH winds.

Trevor Lawrence is one of the most improved quarterbacks in the league this season under the guidance of Doug Pederson.  He is completing 66.2% of his passes with a 20-to-6 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 218 yards and four scores.  Travis Etienne is averaging 5.0 YPC, and Lawrence is loaded with weapons in Kirk, Jones, Engram and Jones Jr. on the outside.

The Dallas Cowboys are humming on offense right now as well.  They have scored 28 or more points in six consecutive games and are averaging 37.7 points per game in their last six games.  They will get their points against a Jacksonville defense that has really slipped in allowing at least 20 points in eight consecutive games and an average of 26.8 points per game during this stretch.  Dallas has allowed at least 19 points in five of its last six games despite a very weak schedule of opposing offenses.

The OVER is 5-1 in Cowboys last six games overall.  The OVER is 6-0 in Cowboys last six games following a win.  The OVER is 4-0 in Jaguars last four December games.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings.  The OVER is 7-0 in Jaguars last seven games off an upset win by 14 points or more as a road underdog.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Ravens/Browns AFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland -3

The Cleveland Browns have been on the road four of the last five weeks.  In their lone home game, they beat the Tampa Bay Bucs in overtime.  Now Deshaun Watson will be playing his first home game for the Browns after playing the last two on the road.  This will be a much more comforting atmosphere for Watson, and I expect his best game as a Brown yet.

But this play is as much of a fade of the Ravens as it is a play on the Browns.  They were very lucky to beat the Steelers 16-14 last week as the Steelers lost Kenny Pickett early, and Mitch Trubisky threw three interceptions in the red zone.  The Ravens pulled off a minor miracle to win that game after only beating the Broncos 10-9 at home the previous week.  Their luck runs out this week.

The Ravens will still be without Lamar Jackson, and quality backup Tyler Huntley suffered a concussion against the Steelers and is highly questionable to play this week, especially since it's a short week with this game being played on Saturday.  Third stringer Anthony Brown is a big downgrade from Huntley, and this line will be much more than Cleveland -3 if Brown starts.

The numbers actually show the Browns are the better team, and that's even with Jackson up to this point.  The Browns rank 6th in total offense at 368.8 yards per game while the Ravens are 14th at 347.0 yards per game.  The Ravens are 12th in total defense at 330.4 yards per game while the Browns are 17th at 343.8 yards per game.  So the Ravens are only outgaining opponents by 16.6 yards per game while the Browns are outgaining foes by 25 yards per game.

Plays against any team (Baltimore) - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, when playing on Saturday are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS since 1983.  Plays on favorites (Cleveland) - after covering the spread in two of their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 49-20 (71%) ATS since 1983.  Cleveland is favored for good reason this week, and it should be an even bigger favorite.  Bet the Browns Saturday.

20* 49ers/Seahawks NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Francisco -3

The San Francisco 49ers are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with five wins by 13 points or more.  Even in the game they failed to win by double-digits they should have as they outgained the Chargers by 149 yards in a 22-16 victory as 8.5-point favorites.  They should be bigger than 3-point favorites over the Seahawks Thursday.

I know this will be Brock Purdy's first road game, but they have been better with him under center.  They beat the Dolphins 33-17 as he took over for Jimmy G early in that game.  Then they beat the Bucs 35-7.  I know Purdy had some plays go his ways due to penalties, but the guy is cool under pressure, offers mobility that Jimmy G didn't have, and the players absolutely love him.

Purdy just needs to be a game manager in this one because the 49ers are going to run wild on this Seattle defense.  The 49ers have rushed for at least 101 yards in six of their last seven games overall.  The Seahawks have allowed 192 rushing yards per game in their last five games.  It's a big reason they are just 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall because they cannot stop anyone.  They needed a last-minute TD to beat the Rams 27-23 in their lone win, and that was a Rams team missing four of their top players in Stafford, Kupp, Donald and Robinson.

This Seattle offense is solid, but they are no match for this San Francisco defense.  The 49ers rank 1st in scoring defense at 15.2 points per game, 1st in total defense at 286.8 yards per game and 3rd at 4.8 yards per play allowed.  The 49ers have now allowed 17 or fewer points in six consecutive games and an average of just 10.7 points per game during this stretch.

The Seahawks haven't been able to run the ball of late averaging just 60 rushing yards per game in their last four games.  They have cluster injuries at the RB position, and the offensive line has been dreadful.  Geno Smith will be under duress all game, and the 49ers are a dangerous defense when they can pin their ears back.

San Francisco won the first meeting 27-7 and held the Seahawks to just 216 total yards and 14 first downs.  They rushed for 189 yards in that first meeting.  It should be rinse and repeat here as the 49ers have the big edge at the line of scrimmage.  Purdy just has to manage the game and not turn the ball over and the 49ers run away with this one again.

Kyle Shanahan is a perfect 8-0 ATS after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in four consecutive games as the coach of San Francisco.  Shanahan is 15-3 ATS after having won five or six of their last seven games as the coach of the 49ers.  Bet the 49ers Thursday.

20* Patriots/Cardinals ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 44

The Arizona Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  QB Kyler Murray is back and he has his top two receivers healthy in DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown, plus Rondale Moore should return following a bye this week.  But the Cardinals have a very leaky defense that has allowed 29.8 points per game in their last six games.

The Patriots have faced one of the easiest schedules of opposing offenses this season.  But they have struggled when they have faced some legit offenses.  They allowed 24 points to the Bills, 33 points to the Vikings, 33 points to the Bears, 27 points to the Packers and 37 points to the Ravens.  The Cardinals will hang a big number on their slow defense, too.

But the Patriots should get their points against this suspect Arizona defense.  They have done well on offense against the worst defenses in the NFL.  They scored 26 points against the Vikings, 38 against the Browns, 29 against the Lions, 24 against the Packers and 26 against the Ravens.  I see both teams getting to at least 24 points in this one, and we only need a 24-21 final to cash this ticket.

The OVER is 6-0 in Cardinals last six games overall with combined scores of 44 or more points in all six and 48 or more points in five of them.  Arizona is 6-0 OVER in its last six home games after losing three of its last four games coming in.  Roll with the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Dolphins/Chargers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 51.5

The Miami Dolphins have scored at least 30 points in four of their last five games.  The only team that held them in check was the 49ers, and they probably have the best defense in the NFL.  I think they hang another big number here against this depleted Chargers defense.

The Chargers have allowed at least 22 points in nine of their last 11 games overall.  The only exceptions were against poor Denver and Atlanta offenses.  There's a chance the Chargers get back Mike Williams and a couple offensive linemen this week, which would make them even more potent offensively.  They have scored at least 20 points in seven of their last nine games overall.  The Chargers rank 30th in scoring defense while the Dolphins rank 25th.

Miami just tends to get in shootouts on the road this season.  The Dolphins are scoring 26.2 points per game and allowing 32.8 points per game on the road this season.  That's an average of 59 combined points per game, which is 7.5 points more than this 51.5-point total.  The Chargers are allowing 28.0 points per game at home this season.

The OVER is 4-0 in Dolphins last four road games.  The OVER is 7-2 in Chargers last nine home games.  The OVER is 10-2 in Chargers last 12 games following a loss.  The OVER is 9-1 in Chargers last 10 games following a road loss.  The OVER is 8-1 in Dolphins last nine road games vs. good offensive teams that average at least 350 yards per game.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday night.

20* Bucs/49ers NFC No-Brainer on San Francisco -3.5

I recommend buying the 49ers to -3 (-125) or better.  We'll back a 49ers team playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now.  They are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with four wins by 13 points or more.  That includes their impressive 33-17 win over the Miami Dolphins last week.

The 49ers have the Seahawks on their heels for the NFC West lead, so they don't be having a letdown this week.  They get a week of practice with Brock Purdy running the offense and preparing to be the starter, which will benefit him.  Purdy played well in his first significant action of the season, completing 25-of-37 passes for 210 yards with two touchdowns and one interception on a 4th down play jump ball.  Players love him, and with Jimmy G being no more than a game manager, Purdy actually has more upside.

But the key here is the 49ers are going to shut down the Bucs.  The 49ers rank 1st in scoring defense at 15.8 points per game, 1st in total defense at 283.9 yards per game and 5th at 4.8 yards per play.  They have a tremendous defensive line and pass rush, and the Bucs have struggled against dominant defensive lines because they are missing so many starters on the offensive line, plus they just aren't very skilled in that department.  It's their biggest weakness.

It's the reason the Bucs are struggling so much on offense this season.  They rank 27th in scoring offense at 18.1 points per game, 17th in total offense at 340.0 yards per game and 25th at 5.0 yards per play.  They managed just 3 points against the Saints last week until their final two drives against the prevent to pull out a miracle victory.  The 49ers won't be playing prevent, and they will be getting after Brady for four quarters just as they did against Tua and the Dolphins last week, forcing them into four turnovers.  

The Dolphins are better than the Bucs, so the 49ers can't be 4.5-point home favorites over the Dolphins and only 3.5-point home favorites against the Bucs.  Especially with the Bucs now on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football and having to travel to the West Coast.  The value is on the 49ers this week due to Purdy being their quarterback, which is downgrading them in the betting markets more than it should be.

The Bucs are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The 49ers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.  San Francisco is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 vs. NFC opponents.  The 49ers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following a non-conference game.  San Francisco is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in three consecutive games.  Kyle Shanahan is 7-0 ATS after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in four consecutive games as the coach of San Francisco.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +6

The Cincinnati Bengals are in a massive letdown spot after their upset home win over the Kansas City Chiefs.  Joe Burrow is now 3-0 against Patrick Mahomes, but he's 0-5 against the Cleveland Browns.  The Browns have the Bengals' number, and that will continue Sunday.

Cleveland has saved its season with two consecutive impressive wins over the Bucs and Texans.  The defense is playing at a very high level right now holding the Bucs to 17 and the Texans to 14 points, while also forcing four turnovers against the Texans that set up several easy scores.

The headlines are that Deshaun Watson struggled, but that was expected in his first game action in two years.  He only attempted 22 passes and didn't have to do much because the defense controlled the game.  With a game under his belt now, he should be much more prepared to shine in Cincinnati.  Of course, he won't have to do too much in this one either because the Browns always run wild on the Bengals.

Indeed, the Browns are 5-0 SU in their last five meetings with the Bengals while averaging 32.8 points per game in those five wins.  They have averaged 165.4 rushing yards per game in the five wins as well.  Nick Chubb just has his way with this Cincinnati defense.  And Cleveland gets back star TE David Njoku, who caught the game-tying TD pass against the Bucs two weeks ago.

Burrow struggles against this Cleveland defense, too.  He's always under duress by Myles Garrett.  The Bengals have averaged just 15.0 points per game and 253 yards per game in their last three meetings with the Browns.  They lost 32-13 while getting outgained 440 to 229 by the Browns in their first meeting this season.

Plays against home teams (Cincinnati) - an excellent passing team averaging 7.3 YPA or more against an average passing team (5.9-6.7 YPA), after gaining 6.75 YPA or more in four consecutive games are 32-9 (78%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with the Browns Sunday.

25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Lions PK

The Detroit Lions have gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall to keep their playoff hopes alive.  They are very much alive and well in the NFC, and I look for them to carry that momentum into a home win over the Minnesota Vikings Sunday.

The Vikings are 10-2 and the Lions are 5-7, but when you look at the numbers there isn't that much difference between these teams.  Amazingly, the Vikings are 10-2 despite getting outgained by 53 yards per game.  They are the most fraudulent 10-2 team in the history of the NFL due to going 9-0 in one score games.  Their luck runs out this week against the Lions.

The Vikings are coming off another misleading 27-22 home win over the Jets last week.  They were outgained by 199 yards by the Jets and should have lost.  There was nothing misleading about the Lions' 40-14 win over the Jaguars last week.  They outgained Jacksonville by 171 yards.  Their only loss during this five-game stretch came by 3 as 10-point home underdogs to the Bills on a last-second field goal.

The Lions rank 6th in scoring offense at 26.3 points per game, 7th in total offense at 369.1 yards per game and 7th at 5.8 yards per play.  When they have been healthy, they have been dominant on offense.  They have been healthy lately and have scored 31.8 points per game in their last four games.  They will shred a Minnesota defense that ranks 31st in total defense at 398.7 yards per game and 30th at 6.0 yards per play.  S Harrison Smith, CB Patrick Peterson and LB Eric Kendricks are all questionable for the Vikings this week.

Detroit wants revenge from a 24-28 loss at Minnesota in their first meeting this season.  The Lions outgained the Vikings 416 to 373 and should have won.  But they blew a 10-point lead in the 4th quarter and gave up 14 points in the final eight minutes, including the game-winner with 45 seconds left.  They haven't forgotten, and they will get their revenge this week.

The Lions are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Detroit is 6-0 ATS in it last six games after scoring 25 or more points in two consecutive games.  The Lions are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play in the second half of the season.  Detroit is 7-0 ATS in its last seven vs. NFC North opponents.  The Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing Detroit.  Bet the Lions Sunday.

20* NFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Giants +7

Let's just look at this from a line value perspective.  The Philadelphia Eagles were 6.5-point home favorites over the Packers two weeks ago and 4.5-point home favorites over the Titans last week.  The Giants beat both the Packers and Titans already this season.  And now the Eagles are 7-point road favorites at the Giants.  There's clearly value with the Giants catching 7 points at home.

The Giants are a tough team to get margin on.  They are 7-4-1 SU & 9-3 ATS this season with only two losses coming by more than one score.  And in those two losses by more than one score they actually outgained one team by 88 yards and were only outgained by 52 yards by the other, so they were misleading final scores.

The Giants rank 6th in the NFL in rushing this season at 149.7 yards per game.  Well, the one weakness of the Eagles is their run defense.  They have allowed at least 99 rushing yards in seven of their last eight games overall.  They rank 24th in the NFL in allowing 4.6 yards per carry.  The Giants can stay in this game by running the ball, extending drives and keeping the Eagles' offense off the field.

The Eagles are 5-0 SU but just 1-4 ATS on the road this season.  They aren't getting margin on teams on the highway.  Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings.  The Giants have been home underdogs to the Eagles in each of their two previous home meetings and won both outright.

Philadelphia is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games.  New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  New York is 7-1 ATS as an underdog this season.  Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games following two or more consecutive ATS wins.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Eagles this week in this divisional showdown on the road.  Take the Giants Sunday.

20* Raiders/Rams Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Las Vegas -5.5

The Las Vegas Raiders have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall to keep their playoff hopes alive.  There was nothing fluky about any of the three wins as they outgained their three opponents in the Chargers, Seahawks and Broncos by a combined 309 yards, or by an average of 103 yards per game.  Now they carry that momentum into their easiest opponent of the season Thursday night in the depleted Los Angeles Rams.

The only team worse than the Rams right now is the Houston Texans.  The Rams have lost six consecutive games with four of those losses by 7 points or more.  They were outgained in five of those six games and have been outgained by a total of 649 yards in those six games, or by an average of 108.2 yards per game.

Things are getting worse for the Rams before they get better.  They are without their three best players for this game in Stafford, Kupp and Donald.  They were so desperate that they even picked up Baker Mayfield off waivers after he wore out his welcome in Carolina.  There's a chance he even plays in this game, which would be a good thing for us if he does.

The Raiders got good news on the injury front with TE Darren Waller expected to make his return from a hamstring injury to give Derek Carr another weapon.  Of course, the Raiders have been thriving in the running game and with the Carr to Adams connection.  They have rushed for 182 yards per game in their last three games.  Adams has 79 receptions for 1,176 yards and 12 touchdowns this season.  

The Rams have allowed 26 or more points in five of their six losses during this six-game skid.  They have scored 20 or fewer points five times.  Whoever is under center will be playing behind an offensive line that ranks dead last in the NFL in pass blocking efficiency.  That's bad news going up against the tandem of Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones, who have really been getting after opposing quarterbacks in recent weeks.

This will pretty much be a home game for the Las Vegas Raiders.  The fair-weather Rams fans have given up on this team already.  Fans that live in the Los Angeles area, which there are millions of, will turn out to this game to support the Raiders.  It's also a short trip from Las Vegas to Los Angeles.  You'll hear fans cheering more for the Raiders than for the Rams in this one.

The Rams are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing 400 or more yards in two consecutive games.  Los Angeles is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games vs. AFC opponents.  Las Vegas is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in its previous game.  The Rams are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in their previous game.  Bet the Raiders Thursday.

20* Saints/Bucs ESPN No-Brainer on Tampa Bay -3.5

This line has been bet down from an opener of -6.5 to -3.5 this week.  That's too big of a move, and now the value is with the Bucs laying the short number at home.  Keep in mind Tampa Bay was a 2.5-point road favorite at New Orleans in their first meeting this season, and is now only a 3.5-point home favorite in the rematch.  That's a 1-point adjustment for home-field advantage when it should be anywhere from 4 to 6 points.

Both teams have been hit hard by injuries this season, but I still think the Bucs are better off in that department.  Brady has all of his top playmakers healthy and ready to go.  The defense still remains one of the best units in the league.  The offensive line is a problem, but they can scheme around it, and Brady is the best at getting the most out of an offensive line.

The Saints are broken on offense and cannot be trusted.  They have scored 13 or fewer points in three of their last four games and were just shut out by the 49ers last time out.  Now they must take on an elite Tampa Bay defense that ranks 6th in scoring defense at 18.5 points per game, 9th in total defense at 315.2 yards per game and 8th at 5.0 yards per play.  The Bucs are better on both sides of the football in this one.

New Orleans is a tired team right now as they have yet to have their bye week.  Tampa Bay just had its bye week prior to losing at Cleveland last week, so they should still be pretty fresh for this one.  The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last five Monday games.

Plays on any team (Tampa Bay) - after five consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 79-38 (67.5%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Bucs Monday.

15* Chiefs/Bengals AFC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 53

This game has shootout written all over it between two of the best offenses in the NFL.  We are going to get the right conditions for a shootout in Cincinnati as well with the forecast calling for temps in the 40's, sunny skies, only 6 MPH wind and zero chance of precipitation.

Kansas City ranks 1st in the NFL in scoring offense at 29.6 points per game, 1st in total offense at 430 yards per game and 1st at 6.5 yards per play.  Cincinnati ranks 5th in scoring offense at 25.9 points per game and those numbers would be even better if they were healthy on offense all season.  Well, reinforcements are on the way this week as both WR Ja'Marr Chase and RB Joe Mixon return from injury in time for this huge showdown with Kansas City.

The return of those two cannot be overstated.  Chase has 47 receptions for 605 yards and six touchdowns in only seven games this season.  Mixon has 605 rushing yards and six touchdowns, while also catching 41 balls for 314 yards and two scores.  Joe Burrow is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL already, and now he has his full allotment of weapons this week.

Last year Cincinnati won a 34-31 over Kansas City shootout at home while racking up 475 yards and allowing 414 yards.  Each of the last four meetings in this series have seen 51 or more combined points, including 55 or more in three of those.  The OVER is 8-1 in Chiefs last nine road games.  The OVER is 4-1-1 in Bengals last six games overall.  Kansas City is 7-0 OVER in its last seven road games vs. teams that complete 64% of their passes or better.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Dolphins/49ers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Miami +3.5

The Miami Dolphins are are perfect 8-0 SU in games started and finished by Tua Tagovailoa this season.  That includes upset wins over the Ravens and Bills.  And now I think they have a great shot of upsetting the San Francisco 49ers this week.

Miami got out to a 30-0 lead over the Houston Texans in the first half last week before calling off the dogs.  They rested their starters in the second half of that game and it was a misleading 30-15 final as a result.  But resting starters in the second half also keeps them fresher for this game against the 49ers.  They had a bye the previous week after beating the Browns 39-17 the week prior.  So they are as fresh as they can be right now.

The 49ers needed a last-minute stop to beat the Chargers by 6 three weeks ago, then went into Mexico City and beat up on a banged up Arizona team on Monday Night Football before a 13-0 win over the Saints last week.  Miraculously, they shut out the Saints despite New Orleans having the ball inside the San Francisco 25-yard line three times in the second half.  They missed a FG, fumbled and turned it over on downs.  That was closer than a 13-0 game as the 49ers only outgained the Saints by 57 yards.

No question the 49ers have an elite defense and one of the best stop units in the NFL.  But I just don't trust their offense to get margin.  This line should be San Francisco -3 at the most.  Jimmy G is still no more than a game manager.  And three key playmakers on offense are banged up and either out or questionable in Deebo Samuel, Christan McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell.

The 49ers have faced one of the easiest schedules of opposing offenses this season.  When they actually faced a top offense in the Chiefs they gave up 44 points in a 21-point loss.  I think they will struggle to handle all this speed the Dolphins offer.  Tyreke Hill already has 87 receptions, 1,233 yards and four touchdowns while Jaylen Waddle has 56 receptions, 963 yards and six scores.  And you know Miami RB's Jeff Wilson Jr. and Raheem Mostert will be extra motivated for this game after the 49ers traded both of them away.  They have combined for 1,220 rushing yards and seven scores and have been a fantastic two-headed monster.

The 49ers don't have much of a home-field advantage, and I think them being at home is being factored into this line too much.  The Dolphins are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 games following an ATS win.  Again, Miami is 8-0 SU in games started and finished by Tua this season.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Seahawks -7

The Los Angeles Rams are the worst team in the NFL in their current form.  And that's crazy to say coming from a team that just won the Super Bowl.  But the fact of the matter is they are without their three best players in Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald and Cooper Kupp.  They are also without Allen Robinson and playing with three replacement-level receivers.  Their entire offensive line is replacement-level, too.

The Rams have gone 0-5 SU & 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They lost by 17 to the 49ers, by 3 to the Bucs, by 10 to the Cardinals, by 7 to the Saints and by 16 to the Chiefs.  They were held to 198 total yards against the Chiefs last week playing with third-string QB Bryce Perkins.  It won't get any better for their offense this week even against a suspect Seattle defense.  They can load up at the line of scrimmage because Perkins isn't going to be able to beat them through the air.  He is averaging just 2.8 passing yards per attempt, and the Rams rank dead last in pass blocking efficiency.

I love the spot for the Seahawks.  They are coming off two consecutive tough losses to the Bucs and Raiders.  They had a bye in between so they should still be fresh.  And the two losses in a row assure they won't have a letdown here against the Rams, which is what it would take for them to even be competitive.  Pete Carroll is an impressive 19-4 SU & 19-3-1 ATS following two consecutive losses as the coach of Seattle.

The Rams have allowed 26 or more points in four of their last five games and they will struggle to slow down this impressive Seattle offense, especially without their best player in Aaron Donald clogging up the middle.  This will be the first game he has missed this season.  Seattle ranks 4th in scoring offense at 26.5 points per game and 4th at 6.0 yards per play.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now, too.

The Seahawks are 41-20-4 ATS in their last 65 games following a loss.  The Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games and will have zero home-field advantage given the current state of this team, which fans are not excited about.  I think it will feel more like a home game for Seattle.  Carroll is 6-0 ATS after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in two consecutive games as the coach of Seattle with the Seahawks winning by 14.1 points per game in this spot.  Roll with the Seahawks Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jets/Vikings OVER 44.5

The Minnesota Vikings are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have a very good offense that has recently put up 33 points against New England and 33 against Buffalo in two of their last three games.  But their defense has been terrible all season, especially of late.  They rank 31st in total defense at 390.7 yards per game allowed and 31st at 6.1 yards per play.  They have allowed 32 points per game in their last three games and just gave up 26 points and 409 yards to a bad Patriots offense last week.

The Jets were an UNDER team in the first half of the season, but the switch to Mike White at quarterback has rejuvenated this offense.  He went 22-of-29 for 308 yards and three touchdowns in a 31-10 win over Chicago last week.  He has his full compliment of weapons at receiver with Cory Davis back healthy to go with the underrated duo of Wilson and Moore.  White will light up this Minnesota defense, too.

The Jets have a great defense, but they have also benefited from a very easy schedule of opposing offenses.  They faced the Bears and a backup QB last week, the Patriots twice, the Broncos, the Packers, the Dolphins without Tua and the Steelers.  They did hold the Bills in check, but that's a division opponent they are familiar with.  Against the three other top offenses they faced they gave up 24 points to the Ravens, 30 to the Browns and 27 to the Bengals.  Minnesota can get 24-plus in this one pretty easily.

Minnesota's six home games this season have seen an average of 49.2 combined points per game.  The Vikings are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 games after winning two of their last three games.  The OVER is 8-2 in Vikings last 10 home games.  The OVER is 9-2 in Vikings last 11 games on fieldturf.  The OVER is 14-2 in Vikings last 16 games after rushing for fewer than 90 yards last game.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Lions OVER 50.5

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 8th in scoring offense at 25.0 points per game, 8th in total offense at 362.9 yards per game and 8th at 5.8 yards per play.  The Lions are dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 28.2 points per game, 32nd in total defense at 414.5 yards per game and 32nd at 6.3 yards per play.

The Jaguars haven't exactly been stopping anyone, either.  They rank 21st in allowing 5.7 yards per play this season.  But they have gotten their offense going in recent weeks with 27 points three weeks ago against the Raiders and 28 against the Ravens last week.  I see both teams getting 28-plus in this one, and we only need a 27-24 final to cash this OVER ticket.

The Lions have really been an OVER team of late because they have gotten healthy on offense.  They have scored 25, 31 and 31 points in their last three games overall.  Detroit's five non-divisional home games have all seen 53 or more combined points and an average of 68 combined points per game.

The OVER is 6-1 in Jaguars last seven road games.  The OVER is 9-4 in Lions last 13 games overall.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Bills/Patriots AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo -3

The Buffalo Bills did not punt once in their final two meetings with the New England Patriots last season.  They won the final regular season meeting 33-21 on the road while outgaining the Patriots 428 to 288.  They won 47-17 in the playoffs while outgaining the Patriots 482 to 305.

Sure, the Patriots pulled the upset in Buffalo in the first meeting last season, but that was mostly weather related as the conditions were terrible and windy.  Well, the conditions will be nearly perfect for a game in New England for this time of year with 32 degrees, only 6 MPH winds and no precipitation in the forecast.

The Bills are the better team, period.  They rank 2nd in scoring offense at 28.1 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 415.9 yards per game and 2nd at 6.3 yards per play.  The Patriots are 18th in scoring offense at 21.7 points per game, 21st in total offense at 325.9 yards per game and 17th at 5.4 yards per play.  These teams are almost dead even in defensive stats this season, but the edge the Bills have on offense should warrant them being more than 3-point favorites here.  

The road team is 19-7-2 ATS in the last 28 meetings.  I recommend buying the Bills down from -3.5 to -3 -130 or better.  Bet the Bills Thursday.

20* Bills/Patriots AFC East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on OVER 43.5

The Buffalo Bills did not punt once in their final two meetings with the New England Patriots last season.  They won the final regular season meeting 33-21 for 54 combined points on the road while outgaining the Patriots 428 to 288.  They won 47-17 for 64 combined points in the playoffs while outgaining the Patriots 482 to 305.

Sure, the Patriots pulled the upset in Buffalo in the first meeting last season, but that was mostly weather related as the conditions were terrible and windy.  Well, the conditions will be nearly perfect for a game in New England for this time of year with 32 degrees, only 6 MPH winds and no precipitation in the forecast.

The Bills rank 2nd in scoring offense at 28.1 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 415.9 yards per game and 2nd at 6.3 yards per play.  They are going to get their points, and the Patriots are going to have to throw the ball more than they want to to try and stay in this game.  This is such a low total for a game involving Buffalo.  In fact, this 43.5-point total is the lowest of the season for a Buffalo game.  That fact alone shows there's value with the OVER.

Mac Jones is coming off one of the best games of his career.  He led the Patriots to 26 points against the Vikings while throwing for 364 yards.  Unfortunately, they lost that game by 7 as their defense proved vulnerable giving up 33 points to the Vikings.  And we saw the Vikings and Bills play in a shootout recently that saw 63 combined points.

New England is 18-4 OVER in its last 22 home games after passing for more than 350 yards in its previous game.  Buffalo is 8-1 OVER in its last nine games after winning six or seven of its last eight games.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Steelers/Colts ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 39

Both the Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7) and Indianapolis Colts (4-6-1) suffered crushing losses to their playoff hopes last week.  The Steelers lost 30-37 at home to the Bengals, while the Colts blew a double-digit 4th quarter lead in a 17-16 home loss to the Eagles.  I expect a pretty care-free game here on Monday Night Football with both offenses performing better than expected.

The Colts have been better offensively since getting both Matt Ryan and Johnathan Taylor back from injury.  They have averaged 20.5 points per game in their last two games against the Raiders and Eagles.  They have been able to run the football, and Ryan is making enough plays in play-action to keep the offense moving.  Now they'll be up against a Steelers defense that just allowed 37 points and 408 total yards to the Bengals last week.

The Steelers finally got their offense going the past two weeks under Kenny Pickett.  After scoring 20 points and gaining 379 yards against the Saints two weeks ago, they put up 30 points and 351 yards on the Bengals last week.  Najee Harris looks fully healthy now and has rushed for 90-plus yards in consecutive weeks.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 35.5 to 42 points (Pittsburgh) - off a close division loss by 7 points or less with a losing record on the season are 34-14 (70.8%) over the last 10 seasons.  The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  Expect more offense than the books are giving these teams credit for in this standalone game.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday. 

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Seattle Seahawks -3.5

The Seattle Seahawks are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming to the Tampa Bay Bucs in Germany last time out.  They won those four games all by double-digits.  They are coming off their bye week and will be rested and ready to go as they try and win the NFC West here down the stretch.  They sit at 6-4 on the season with an excellent chance to do just that with the way they are playing.

This line would be bigger had the Raiders not pulled off the 22-16 (OT) upset in Denver last week.  But that was a Denver team that has more players on injured reserve than any other team in the NFL, and they took advantage.  I expect the Raiders to still be pretty tired from that OT win, plus this is a team that went 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their previous three games with losses to the Saints, Jaguars and Colts while getting outscored 76-40 in the process.

Despite the win last week, the Raiders are just 3-7 this season and out of the playoff hunt.  They are still without two of Derek Carr's favorite weapons in TE Waller and WR Renfrow, and they could be without RB Josh Jacobs, who is questionable with an ankle injury.  They don't have the horses on offense right now to keep up with Seattle, and they certainly don't have the defense to slow down the Seahawks.

Seattle ranks 5th in scoring offense this season at 25.7 points per game and 4th at 6.0 yards per play, and it has shredded defenses like the Raiders all season.  Las Vegas ranks 24th in scoring defense at 24.2 points per game, 27th in total defense at 370.5 yards per game and 28th at 5.9 yards per play.  Seattle has really been buttoned up defensively of late and has one of the most improved stop units in the NFL.  The Seahawks are allowing just 17.4 points per game in their last five games.

Seattle is 6-0 ATS in his last six home games following a loss by 6 points or less.  The Seahawks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. poor defenses that allow 5.65 or more yards per play.  Pete Carroll is 45-24-4 ATS following a loss as the coach of Seattle.  The Seahawks are 41-19-4 ATS in their last 64 games following a loss.  Bet the Seahawks Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Carolina Panthers +2

The Carolina Panthers continue to show up every week under interim head coach Steve Wilks.  They have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games.  They have upset wins over Tampa Bay 21-3 as 13-point dogs and Atlanta by 10 as 2-point dogs.  They also only lost by 3 at Atlanta as 4-point dogs.  They gave the Ravens all they wanted last week in a game that was tied 3-3 with under 10 minutes to go, eventually losing 13-3 as 13-point dogs after a couple of late turnovers.

This week the offense gets a spark with Sam Darnold expected to be the starting quarterback.  He cannot possibly be a downgrade to Baker Mayfield or PJ Walker.  I think at least for one week, this offense will be excited to see a new face in the huddle and will perform well.  But this game will be played on the ground with a 100% chance of precipitation and 16 MPH winds.

The Panthers have been great running the ball in recent weeks, averaging 134.8 rushing yards per game in their last five games.  Denver is doing nothing well offensively.  The Broncos rank dead last (32nd) in scoring offense at 14.7 points per game.  They rank 24th in rushing at 102.6 yards per game and 28th at 3.9 yards per carry.  With this game being played mostly on the ground, it's definitely worth noting the Panthers rank 17th allowing 4.5 yards per carry while the Broncos rank 26th at 4.7 yards per carry allowed.

No team has been hit harder by injuries than the Broncos.  They have more players on the injury report and more players on injured reserve than any other team in the NFL.  They are going to be without two of their best receivers again in Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler.  The offensive line is a mess as Russell Wilson has no time to throw the ball, which is a big reason the offense has struggled so much.

This Denver defense has kept the team in games for much of the season, but they are tired of it at this point.  Denver sits at 3-7 with nothing to play for the rest of the way after a 22-16 (OT) home loss to the Las Vegas Raiders last week.  They even gave up 409 total yards to a bad Raiders offense that is missing several key weapons.  I don't think they'll have it in them to match the physicality of this Carolina rush offense this week, especially being extra tired coming off an OT game.

Plays against favorites (Denver) - a poor offensive team that scores 17 or fewer points per game are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Denver has no business being a road favorite over anyone right now given all their injuries.  Roll with the Panthers Sunday.

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Bucs -3

The Tampa Bay Bucs saved their season two games back when they put together a last-second touchdown drive to beat the Rams.  They followed it up with a 21-16 win over Seattle in Germany in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Bucs outgained the Seahawks 419 to 283, or by 136 total yards.

Now the Bucs are in a great spot here coming off their bye week.  They are as healthy as they have been all season.  Look for them to carry their positive momentum into this showdown with the Cleveland Browns, who are just waiting to get DeShaun Watson in the lineup next week.  Jacoby Brissett is just a sitting duck this week.

The Browns sit at 3-7 on the season and out of the playoff hunt after losing six of their last seven games overall.  They followed up a 17-39 loss at Miami with a 23-31 loss to Buffalo in Detroit last week in what was a hectic week due to the game being moved.  Keep in mind the Browns scored in the final seconds in garbage time to turn a 15-point game into an 8-point game against the Bills.

Injuries are really starting to pile up for the Browns, too.  They just lost All-Pro C Ethan Pocic last week to a knee injury that has landed him on injured reserve.  The entire offensive line is pretty much banged up, which is why the Browns have struggled to run the football in recent weeks, which used to be their strength.  They have rushed for just 192 yards on 50 carries the last two weeks against the Dolphins and Bills for 3.8 per carry.

But the biggest problem for the Browns is a leaky, banged up defense.  They rank 30th in the NFL in scoring defense at 26.9 points per game and 24th allowing 5.8 yards per play.  The Bucs have come to life offensively in recent weeks, and they should hang a big number on Cleveland this week.  The move to give third-round rookie RB Rashaad White more touches is paying off.  He rushed for 105 yards against the Seahawks last time out.  Brady has pretty much his full compliment of weapons now in Evans, Godwin, Jones, Miller and Brate healthy.

The Bucs rank 4th in scoring defense at 18.0 points per game, 8th in total defense at 310.0 yards per game and 8th at 5.0 yards per play allowed.  The Browns are 24-51-1 ATS in their last 76 games following a loss.  I just think this is a terrible spot for the Browns given their season outlook currently and with Watson coming back next week.  It's a great spot for the Bucs off a bye, as healthy as they have been all season, and with positive momentum as they try and win the NFC South down the stretch.  Bet the Bucs Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars +4

I love the spot for the Jacksonville Jaguars this week.  They are coming off a bye under first-year head coach Doug Pederson.  First-year head coaches can really get some good work in on bye weeks, and I look for this Jaguars team to come out of it very sharp.

Jacksonville is much better than its 3-7 record would indicate.  Six of the seven losses have come by one score, so they have been unfortunate in close games.  The only one that wasn't a one-score loss was a 10-point loss at Kansas City in which they went 1-for-3 on field goals, otherwise it would have been a one-score loss.

Jacksonville is actually outgaining teams by 5 yards per game on the season, outscoring opponents by 1.1 points per game, and dead even in yards per play on offense and defense at 5.7.  This is more like a .500 team than one that is just 3-7 this season, which provides us some line value with the Jaguars moving forward.  The Ravens shouldn't be more than 3-point road favorites here.

Baltimore is getting too much love for this four-game winning streak over Cleveland, Tampa Bay, New Orleans and Carolina.  It was ugly last week against the Panthers as the offense was broken.  It was a 3-3 game with 9 minutes left in the 4th quarter before the Ravens eventually won 13-3 after getting some late turnovers by the Panthers.

Lamar Jackson doesn't look right and is clearly playing through injury.  TE Mark Andrews is playing through injury, and Jackson misses his best deep threat in Rashod Bateman, who is on IR.  Jackson has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in six of his last seven games.  Stop Baltimore's rushing attack and you have a chance.

Well, the Jaguars are pretty good at stopping the run.  The Jaguars rank 10th in the NFL allowing 110.1 rushing yards per game.  They are also 8th in the NFL in allowing just 4.2 yards per carry.  The Ravens' best lineman in T Ronnie Stanley got injured last week and is questionable this week as well.

Baltimore is a woeful 1-9 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  It is actually getting outscored by 1.8 points per game in this spot.  Pederson is 13-3 ATS vs. good rushing defenses that allow 90 or fewer rushing yards per game as a head coach.  The Jaguars are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a bye week.  They're probably the healthiest team in the NFL right now with only four players on the injury report.  Take the Jaguars Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Commanders -3

The Washington Commanders have gone 5-1 in their last six games overall to get to 6-5 this season and back in the playoff hunt, sitting in 7th place in the NFC.  They won't be having a letdown this week considering they host the Atlanta Falcons, who are one game behind them.  I think Washington is by far the superior team in this matchup and should be more than a 3-point favorite at home.

The offense has a certain swagger with Taylor Heineke at quarterback.  Players love this guy.  He is making all the plays he needs to make to get wins.  The Commanders have victories over Green Bay, Indianapolis, Philadelphia and Houston with their lone loss coming to the Vikings by 3 in Heineke's last five starts.  But it's this Washington defense that is the reason they are going to win and cover this week.

Atlanta can't match Washington defensively.  The Commanders rank 12th in scoring defense at 20.3 points per game, 6th in total defense at 308.0 yards per game and 11th at 5.2 yards per play allowed.  Atlanta ranks 27th in scoring defense at 24.9 points per game, 29th in total defense at 389.4 yards per game and 29th at 5.9 yards per play allowed.

There is a 100% chance of precipitation so this game will be played on the ground.  That's especially the case for the Falcons, who just lost one of their best weapons in TE Kyle Pitts to injured reserve last week with a knee injury.  The Falcons average 159 rushing yards per game and only 154 passing.  Well, Washington ranks 6th against the run allowing 103.1 yards per game and 9th at 4.2 yards per carry.  They haven't allowed anything on the ground in four of their last five games, holding the Packers to 38 rushing yards, the Vikings to 56, the Eagles to 94 and the Texans to 21.  They may get Chase Young back, too.

Washington is more balanced and has gotten its running game going in recent weeks with 128 or more rushing yards in five of its last six games.  The Commanders should be able to run all over an Atlanta defense that ranks 21st in allowing 123.1 rushing yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry.  After allowing 232 rushing yards to the Panthers two weeks ago, the Falcons gave up 160 more to the Bears last week.

Washington is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 6 or more yards per play in the second half of the season.  Ron Rivera is 9-1 ATS in Weeks 10 through 13 as the coach of Washington.  The Commanders are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall, and 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight November games.  It's not time to step in front of this freight train in Washington just yet as the Falcons won't be the team that offers resistance to them.  Take the Commanders Sunday.

15* Giants/Cowboys NFC East ANNIHILATOR on Dallas -8

The New York Giants are finally starting to get exposed for the frauds they are.  After a shocking 7-1 start to the season where all the breaks went their way late in games, they have gone 1-2 since with a 14-point loss at Seattle and a 13-point home loss to Detroit.  Their lone win came at home 24-16 over the worst team in the NFL in the Houston Texans.  They were actually outgained by 20 yards by the Texans, too.

Last week's loss to the Lions was more costly than just one loss.  They had six players leave the game due to injury, including top WR Wan'Dale Robinson.  Both starting CB's in Adoree Jackson and Fabian Moreu, S Jason Pinnock, C Jon Feliciano and RT Tyre Phillips also left Sunday's game with injuries.  

Robinson was having a career game prior to the injury with nine receptions for 100 yards.  Darius Slayton entered Sunday as the only receiver with more than 200 receiving yards.  Kenny Golloday doubled his catch total this season with a pair of receptions.  The secondary is a major concern moving forward.  Starting S Xavier McKinney is already on injured reserve because of a hand injury suffered over the bye week.  As of Tuesday, S Belton, T Thomas, G Lemieux, C Feliciano, CB Moreau, S Pinnock and CB Jackson are all questionable.  Robinson has joined McKinney on IR.

Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys come in healthy and rested following a 40-3 beat down of the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday that allowed them to rest starters in the 4th quarter.  They racked up 458 total yards and held the Vikings to just 183 total yards, outgaining them by 275 yards.  The win really flash the potential of the Cowboys, which is clearly that of a Super Bowl contender.

Dallas ranks 7th in scoring offense at 25.1 points per game.  Those numbers would be even better if Dak Prescott was healthy the entire season.  He has led the Cowboys to 35.3 points per game in his four starts since returning from injury.  This Dallas defense has been elite all season.  They rank 1st in scoring defense at 16.7 points per game, 8th in total defense at 310.6 yards per game and 5th allowing just 4.8 yards per play.  

The Giants are averaging 5.1 yards per pay on offense and allowing 5.8 per play on defense, getting outgained by 0.7 yards per play.  That's why they are frauds and shouldn't be 7-3.  One of those losses came at home to the Cowboys 23-16 with Cooper Rush at quarterback.  So the Cowboys should have no problem winning by 10-plus at home this time around, especially since they are healthy with Dak back in the rematch, plus the Giants are missing a ton of key players that they had in the first meeting.

The Cowboys own the Giants going 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Dallas is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play.  The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. NFC East opponents, and 22-8 ATS in their last 30 division games.  Dallas is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games overall.  Take the Cowboys Thursday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bills/Lions OVER 52.5

I cashed in the OVER between the Buffalo Bills and Cleveland Browns in Detroit on Sunday.  I'm back on the OVER between the Buffalo Bills and the Detroit Lions at Ford Field again Thursday.  These are two dead nuts OVER teams right now that are playing great offense and terrible defense.

The Bills rank 1st in scoring offense at 28.1 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 417.4 yards per game and 3rd at 6.4 yards per play.  Detroit ranks 8th in scoring offense at 25.0 points per game, 6th in total offense at 366.6 yards per game and 6th at 5.9 yards per play.

It's well known the Lions have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  They rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 28.2 points per game, dead last (32nd) in total defense at 415.9 yards per game and dead last at 6.4 yards per play.  They just gave up over 400 yards to the lowly Giants last week and have now allowed at least 400 yards in four consecutive games.  They just lost their top CB in Okudah last week and could be without CB LUcas, DE Paschal and DL Harris.

The Bills started the season with one of the best defenses in the NFL, but injuries have really caught up with them on that side of the football.  After allowing 33 points and 481 total yards to the Vikings two weeks ago, they gave up 23 points and 386 total yards to the Browns last week.  The Lions will have success moving the football on this banged-up Bills defense that is without S Hyde and could be without DE Epenesa, LB Edmunds and CB White this week.  This is the healthiest this Detroit offense has been in a long time and is a big part of their three-game winning streak.

The OVER is 9-3 in Lions last 12 games overall.  The OVER is 20-8 in Lions last 28 home games.  The OVER is 6-0 in Lions last six games following a win.  The OVER is 8-0 in Bills last eight road games vs. good passing teams completing 61% of their passes or better in the second half of the season.  The OVER is 10-1 in Bills last 11 road games vs. poor rushing defenses that allow at least 4.5 yards per carry.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* 49ers/Cardinals ESPN ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco -7.5

The San Francisco 49ers are quickly becoming one of the best teams in the NFL the healthier they get.  After beating the Rams 31-14 on the road three weeks ago, they came back from their bye with a 22-16 home win over the Chargers.  It was more dominant than that scored showed as the 49ers outgained the Chargers by 149 yards.

Speaking of dominant, the 49ers have dominant numbers this season.  They rank 9th in total offense at 360.0 yards per game and 6th at 5.9 yards per play.  The 49ers rank 1st in total defense at 280.6 yards per game and 3rd at 4.7 yards per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 80 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play, which are some of the best numbers in the entire NFL.

The Cardinals are 19th in total offense at 333.7 yards per game and 29th at 4.9 yards per play.  Arizona is 23rd in total defense at 357.6 yards per game and 21st at 5.7 yards per play.  They are getting outgained by 24 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play.

Injuries are really starting to pile up for the Cardinals.  They still don't know whether Kyler Murray or Colt McCoy will be their quarterback as both are banged up.  Whoever is under center will be playing behind a shoddy offensive line that is missing several starters and cannot protect anyone.  They will also be without two of their best weapons in TE Zach Ertz and WR Marquise Brown, and WR DeAndre Hopkins is questionable as well.  They just cannot be trusted with all of these injuries right now, and their lack of depth will be tested playing in the altitude in Mexico City.

The 49ers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a non-conference game.  San Francisco is 35-13 ATS in its last 48 Monday Night Football games.  Arizona is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a good offensive team that averages 350 or more yards per game in the second half of the season.  The Cardinals are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season.  The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. NFC West opponents.  The Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. NFC West foes.  Arizona is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 Monday Night Football games.  Bet the 49ers Monday.

15* Chiefs/Chargers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +6

Let's just start out by looking at this from a line value perspective.  The Chargers were 4-point underdogs in their 24-27 loss at Kansas City earlier this season.  Now they are 6-point home underdogs in the rematch.  There's clearly value on the Chargers given the change in venue from the first meeting, though they admittedly don't have much home-field advantage.

The Chargers are 'all in' this week.  This game will determine whether or not they have a chance to win the division.  They need this game more than the Chiefs do.  That's evident by the fact that both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams returned to practice this week and are expected to go.  Allen has just six receptions on the season and has basically been out all year.  Williams has missed the past two games.  It's amazing the Chargers sit at 5-4 without these guys.  But this is as healthy as they have been in a long time and it's going to make a major difference this week.

The Chiefs have small cornerbacks outside, so Allen and Williams can use their size to make plays for Justin Herbert.  He doesn't have to dink and dunk it down the field anymore like he has been doing without these guys.  Herbert has never lost as an underdog of 5-plus points in his career with a perfect ATS record in this spot.

The Chiefs are the ones with the injury problems this week.  Patrick Mahomes is going to be without his two favorite receivers in JuJu Smith-Shuster and Mecole Hardman.  JuJu has 46 receptions for 615 yards and two touchdowns and was really forming a nice chemistry with Mahomes before being knocked out of the game against the Jaguars last week.  Hardman has 25 receptions for 297 yards and four touchdowns and is their most explosive receiver.

One hidden gem here is that Derwin James owns Travis Kelce.  In his career when matched up against James, Kelce averages just 1.2 yards per target.  James shuts him down, and he will blanket Kelce again in this game knowing that Mahomes is limited on weapons.  I think this Kansas City offense will look lost this week.

The Chiefs haven't won any of their last five meetings with the Chargers by more than 6 points.  And that 6-point victory came in overtime.  The Chargers are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Chiefs are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. AFC opponents.  Kansas City is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games following a win.  The Chiefs are 2-16 ATS in their last 18 games after gaining 450 or more yards per game in their last three games.  They were fortunate to cover by 0.5 against the Jaguars last week as Jacksonville missed two field goals.  They won't be so fortunate this week as I think Los Angeles wins this game outright.  Roll with the Chargers Sunday night.

25* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Cowboys -1

I love this spot for the Dallas Cowboys this week.  They were coming off their bye last week and blew a 14-point lead in the 4th quarter to lose to the Green Bay Packers.  They will be pissed off from that defeat, and I look for them to take it out on the Minnesota Vikings this week.  They were previously 195-0 when having at least a 14-point lead in the 4th quarter in franchise history.

Meanwhile, the Minnesota Vikings are feeling fat and happy from their OT win in Buffalo.  It took a miracle fumble by Josh Allen on the goal line for them to win that game.  They've had every break possible go their way this season, and at some point their luck is going to run out.  I believe that to be this week against the Cowboys, who are clearly the better team and favored for good reason here.

Amazingly, Minnesota is 8-1 this season despite getting outgained by 25 yards per game and outgained by 0.5 yards per play.  That's the definition of a miracle.  They have the numbers more of a team that is below .500 than one that is 8-1.  But they're 7-0 in one score games, which has been the difference.  I don't believe this will be a one score game as I have Dallas blowing them out of the building.

Worst case these teams are even on offense, but Dallas has a way better defense.  The Cowboys rank 5th in the NFL in scoring defense at 18.2 points per game, 11th in total defense at 324.8 yards per game and 6th in allowing just 5.0 yards per play.  Minnesota ranks 29th in total defense allowing 381.2 yards per game and 28th in allowing 5.9 yards per play.  At some point, their leaky defense is going to catch up with them, and I think it'll be this week.

Dallas is likely to get Anthony Barr back at linebacker, which will allow Micah Parsons to get back on the defensive line and rush the passer more.  They are much better when he's rushing the passer than when he's in coverage, though he can do it all.  Minnesota has some injuries in the secondary and is terrible defending the pass.  

They run a Cover 2 shell to try and mask it, but Dak Prescott has the 2nd-best passer rating in the NFL against the Cover 2 shell over the last two seasons.  The Vikings will be without DT Tomlinson, while the Cowboys get RB Elliott back this week, so they should be able to impose their will by running the football with plenty of success.  That will open up things for Dak against that Cover 2 shell look.

The Cowboys are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games.  Dallas is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss.  The Cowboys are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games after allowing 6 or more yards per play in their previous game.  Dallas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. poor pass defenses that allow 235 or more yards per game.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Indianapolis Colts +7

The Indianapolis Colts saved their season last week with a 25-20 upset win in Las Vegas.  It was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They racked up 415 total yards on offense and outgained the Raiders by 106 yards.  Three key moves made the difference.

The Jeff Saturday hire gave the team a boost and they seemed to respond well to him despite all the negative media attention.  Keep in mind there are some proven assistants on this staff that are helping Saturday out in former head coaches Gus Bradley and John Fox.  Matt Ryan returned to the starting lineup and he's a big upgrade over Sam Ehlinger.  But the biggest key was getting star RB Johnathan Taylor back from injury.  He rushed for 147 yards and a touchdown and looked like his former self.

Now the Colts at least have a mediocre offense, which is all they need to help out what is one of the best defenses in the NFL.  Indeed, the Colts rank 11th in scoring defense at 20.3 points per game, 4th in total defense at 307.0 yards per game and 5th with just 4.9 yards per play allowed.  I would argue they have a better defense than Philadelphia when you factor in the schedule.

The Colts have played the 6th-toughest schedule in the NFL while the Eagles have played the easiest schedule in the NFL to this point.  That's why Philadelphia is 8-1 and why the Eagles' numbers are inflated.  They were exposed last week in a 32-21 home loss to Washington as an 11-point favorite on Monday Night Football.  I always like fading teams after having a long winning streak snapped because there tends to be a hangover effect.  And now they are going on the road on a short week and laying 7 points to the Colts when they shouldn't be.

The Eagles really miss DT Jordan Davis who is their best defensive linemen.  Now they lost TE Dallas Goedert and could be without WR AJ Brown, who injured his ankle against the Commanders early and wasn't the same when he returned.  Brown was held to one catch for 7 yards.  Davante Smith also has a banged up knee and is questionable alongside Brown.  Those are their top three receivers by a wide margin as they all have over 40 receptions, over 480 yards apiece and have combined for 12 touchdown receptions.

Philadelphia's passing game is going to be compromised this week at the very least.  They will look to get back to running the football, but that makes this a great matchup for the Colts.  They rank 2nd in the NFL giving up just 3.8 yards per carry this season.  Only the 49ers have been better.

Indianapolis was only a 4.5-point home underdog to Kansas City earlier this season and won outright.  Now they are 7-point underdogs to the Eagles.  They can't be bigger dogs against the Eagles than they were against the Chiefs.  This line should be much closer to Eagles -3.  The Colts are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games as home dogs of 3.5 to 7 points.  The Eagles are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a double-digit home loss.  Take the Colts Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bills/Browns OVER 48

I was betting on the Cleveland Browns and the UNDER when this game was supposed to be played in a couple feet of snow.  That would have benefited Cleveland and their running game.  But now that this game is being played in a dome in Detroit, it benefits the Bills more, but it really benefits the OVER more than anything.

Buffalo will now be able to be in its comfort zone, which is having Josh Allen drop back and make plays with his arm and his feet.  This is arguably the best offense in the NFL.  The Bills rank 2nd in scoring offense at 27.8 points per game, 1st in total offense and 424.1 yards per game and 1st at 6.5 yards per play.  Playing in a dome they are going to be pretty much unstoppable.

We saw what happened to this Cleveland defense last week playing in perfect conditions in Miami against another team that likes to throw it around the yard and has great team speed.  They gave up 39 points and 491 total yards to the Dolphins.  The Browns rank 31st in scoring defense at 29.3 points per game and 25th allowing 5.8 yards per play.  They have injuries in their secondary and just lost starting CB Greg Newsome II to a concussion in practice in an accidental collision on Friday to make things worse.  They have no chance of stopping Buffalo.

The Browns will be able to get their running game going against a Buffalo defense that is allowing 176.3 rushing yards per game their last three games.  And they're going to be without their best linebacker in Tremaine Edmunds, who left the previous game with a knee injury.  They were already without Micah Hyde and Tredavious White and could be without Jordan Poyer as well.  All these injuries have had the Bills with a leaky defense in recent weeks.  

But I do expect the Bills to have the lead for the majority of this game and Jacoby Brissett to try and have to play from behind, which will speed up their offense.  The Browns have a better offense than they get credit for.  They are 10th in the NFL in scoring at 24.1 points per game, 5th in total offense at 375.9 yards per game and 11th at 5.6 yards per play.

Let's just look at this from a value perspective.  Books opened this total at 47.5 when it was supposed to be played in Buffalo knowing what the forecast was.  It got bet all the way down to 41 as bettors caught wind of the forecast.  Now they reopened it at 48, which is only 0.5 higher than the original opener in Buffalo.  That makes no sense since this is being played in a dome.  We'll take advantage and back the OVER in these perfect conditions for a shootout.

Buffalo is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 road games vs. poor rushing defenses that allow 4.5 or more yards per carry.  The Bills are 6-0 OVER in their last six road games vs. good offensive teams that average 5.65 or more yards per play in the second half of the season.  Buffalo is 7-0 OVER in its last seven road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better in the second half of the season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Titans/Packers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Green Bay -3

The Green Bay Packers saved their season on Sunday with a 14-point comeback in the 4th quarter against the Dallas Cowboys to win 31-28 (OT).  I was not excited about it as I had the Cowboys, but I was impressed nonetheless.  Dallas is legitimately a Top 5 team in the NFL and was coming off a bye.  I expect the Packers to carry that momentum into Thursday.

Green Bay racked up 415 yards on a very good Dallas defense.  They got their ground game going with 207 yards, and Christian Watson finally had his breakout game with three receiving touchdowns for Aaron Rodgers.  No question the Packers now have a better offense than the Titans.

I haven't seen this fraudulent of a team in a long time.  Tennessee is 6-3 this season despite getting outgained by 76 yards per game on the season.  They have been outgained in eight of their nine games this season with the lone exception being Houston.  They are living on borrowed time, and their luck runs out this week.

This is a terrible spot for the Titans.  They will be playing in their 3rd different city in 12 days.  They went to OT against Kansas City two games back and needed a red zone stop to avoid overtime in a 17-10 win over the Broncos last week.  They are out of gas, especially when you look at their injury report.  The Titans will be missing as many as five starters on defense for this game.

Meanwhile, the Packers are as healthy as they have been in a long time on offense.  This is also a much better spot for Green Bay considering they just played at home on Sunday and will get to stay home on this short week, so travel is not an issue for them like it is for Tennessee.  The Packers can load up to stop the run because the Titans have no passing game, averaging a woeful 148 passing yards per game this season.

Plays on favorites (Green Bay) - after covering the spread in two of their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 48-19 (71.6%) ATS since 1983.  The Packers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Packers Thursday.

20* Commanders/Eagles ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 44.5

Divisional UNDERS are hitting at a 75% clip this season.  UNDERS in general have been good, especially in primetime games, and even more so in division games.  I think it will be more of the same on Monday Night Football between the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders.

Most important is that this head-to-head series has been an UNDER series as well.  In fact, the Eagles and Commanders have combined for 44 or fewer points in five consecutive meetings.  That makes for a 5-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 44.5-point total.  The Eagles beat the Commanders 24-8 in their first meeting this season for 32 combined points.  So there's even more familiarity here as this will be their second meeting, and familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.

The Commanders haven't gotten any better on offense since the beginning of the season.  They have been held to an average of just 14.9 points per game in their last seven games.  Taylor Heineke doesn't have as many negative plays as Carson Wentz, but he's not much better, either.

The improvement for the Commanders of late has come on defense as they have gotten healthier on that side of the football.  They have allowed 21 or fewer points in five consecutive games and an average of just 17.0 points per game over the last five.  They just got star DL Chase Young back from injury, which bolsters an already strong defensive line.

The Eagles have an elite defense that ranks 3rd in allowing 299.0 yards per game and 2nd in allowing 4.7 yards per play.  They are also 4th in scoring defense at 16.9 yards per game.  The Eagles do have great offensive numbers, and their strength is clearly running the football.  But that now meets Washington's strength which is stopping the run.  They are holding opponents to 113 yards per game and 4.4 per carry on the ground, holding opponents to 21 rushing yards per game and 0.3 per carry less than their season averages.  They rank in the Top 10 in rushing defense and will get enough stops to keep this one UNDER the total.

Washington is 9-0 UNDER in its last nine games after two consecutive ATS wins.  The Commanders are 9-1 UNDER in their last 10 games after scoring 17 points or fewer in two consecutive games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Chargers/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +7

The lookahead line on this game was 49ers -3.5.  The 49ers were idle on their bye week, while the Chargers covered as 2.5-point road favorites in a 20-17 win at Atlanta.  So what has changed since the lookahead line?  Nothing really.  So we are getting 3.5 points of value here, and I'm going to take that value every time.

I know the Chargers have their problems with injuries and attrition this season, but they did just have a bye two weeks ago so they are pretty fresh.  And they are still 4-1 SU in their last five games even with all these injuries.  Their lone loss came to the Seahawks and they were on a short week and off an OT game.  The Seahawks are one of the hottest teams in the NFL.

The 49ers are getting a lot of love for their 31-14 win over the Rams last time out.  The Rams are broken on offense and the 49ers simply own them.  People are quick to forget the 49ers lost 44-23 to the Chiefs the previous week and allowed 529 yards to them.  San Francisco also lost 28-14 at Atlanta the game prior, the same team the Chargers just beat.  The Chargers only lost by 3 to the Chiefs on the road as well to give these teams some common opponents.

The 49ers are just 8-17-1 ATS as home favorites under Kyle Shanahan.  Justin Herbert is 7-3 ATS as a road dog, including 3-0 ATS as a road dog of 6 points or more.  The back door is going to be open for Herbert if we need it because the 49ers' weakness is defending the pass.  The Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.  Roll with the Chargers Sunday night.

20* Cowboys/Packers NFC No-Brainer on Dallas -4

The Dallas Cowboys are showing that they are one of the best teams in the NFL this season.  Especially with what they were able to do without Dak Prescott going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS with their lone loss coming on the road to the Philadelphia Eagles.  They even outgained the Eagles in that game but lost the turnover battle 3-0.

So the Cowboys are a complete team, and that has shown again the last two weeks since getting Prescott back.  He was a little rusty in his return, a 24-6 win over the Lions in which the defense led the way.  But he wasn't rusty at all in his second start back, beating the Bears 49-29 while going 21-of-27 passing for 242 yards.

Now the Cowboys should be even sharper coming off their bye week.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.  And players have come out and said they want to win this one for Mike McCarthy.  Like him or not, McCarthy has been the single-best coach to bet on in the NFL.  He is 167-90 ATS as a head coach, including 20-7 ATS with the Cowboys.  He has a great defensive coordinator in Dan Quinn, so he can't take all the credit, but the proof is in the pudding.

The Packers are a mess injury-wise.  They have 15 more players on the injury report.  THey just lost their best defender in LB Gary to a season-ending injury last week.  Fellow LB's Campbell and Barnes are expected to be out this week.  That leaves them very thin at the position.  They are also thin at the WR position, which is a big reason for their struggles offensively this season.  Even Aaron Rodgers has a banged up thumb.

Rodgers threw three bad interceptions last week in a 15-9 loss to the Lions last week.  If they couldn't get right against the Lions, who have the worst defense in the NFL, they certainly aren't going to get right on offense this week.  Dallas ranks 3rd in scoring defense allowing just 16.6 points per game and 4th allowing just 4.8 yards per play.

The Packers are getting respect for what they have done in the past, not the team they are this season.  That's a big reason they are just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone cover coming in backdoor fashion, trailing by 17 the Bills but getting a TD late to cover the 10.5-point spread in a 10-point defeat.  They have losses to the Lions, Commanders, Jets and Giants during this stretch.

Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games, and 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games.  The Cowboys are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games overall.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Dallas is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a losing record and winning by 18.7 points per game in this spot.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Jacksonville Jaguars +9.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars are much better than their 3-6 record would indicate.  All six losses have come by 8 points or fewer, so getting 9.5 points per is some value.  Their first two wins came by 24 over the Colts and by 28 over the Chargers.  They finally won a close game last week with a 27-20 comeback win over the Raiders, and that victory will give them some confidence heading into this game with the Chiefs.

Jacksonville ranks 8th in total offense at 367.4 yards per game and 11th at 5.7 yards per play.  The Jaguars rank 16th in total defense at 343.4 yards per game and 14th at 5.4 yards per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 24 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play, which are numbers of a 5-4 or better team not one that is 3-6.  So the Jaguars are undervalued due to their record and catching too many points this week as a result.

Kansas City just cannot be trusted as a big favorite.  We saw that last week as they needed OT to beat the Titans with a backup QB in Willis, 20-17 as 14-point favorites.  So this is now a bad spot for the Chiefs off an OT game.  Home favorites coming off an OT home win are 23-41 ATS over the last 64 tries. They have a big divisional showdown on deck with the Chargers, making this a sandwich spot.

The Titans ran for 172 yards on the Chiefs last week, which is their weakness.  The Jaguars average 147 rushing yards pre game and 5.1 per carry, so they should be able to move the ball on the ground to keep them in this game and keep the pressure off of Trevor Lawrence.  

Kansas City is 1-16 ATS in its last 17 games after gaining 450 or yards per game on average in its last three games.   The Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Take the Jaguars Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Broncos +3

The Denver Broncos are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL right now due to their 3-5 record through eight games.  They could easily be 7-1 or even better as they have four losses by once score, including three by 3 points or fewer.  Their numbers also suggest they are much better than their record.

Denver has had two weeks to get ready for this game after having a bye last week, which is a huge advantage.  Players were talking about how their up-tempo approach helped big time against the Jaguars, and I look for more of it this week.  This is going to be their best offensive performance of the season as they have been lagging on that side of the ball.  But it's not like they've been completely dreadful, ranking 20th in total offense at 328.9 yards per game.

What makes the Broncos underrated is their defense, which ranks 2nd in the NFL in allowing 288.4 yards per game, 2nd allowing 16.5 points per game and 1st allowing 4.5 yards per play.  I love backing good defensive teams.  The Broncos are outgaining their opponents by 40 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play on the season, which is the sign of a 5-3 or better team, not one that is 3-5.

Tennessee is the most overrated team in the NFL right now in my opinion.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Titans after going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  They finally had their five-game winning streak come to an end with a tough 17-20 (OT) loss at Kansas City Sunday night.  Now I think there will be a 'hangover' effect here, letting that loss beat them twice.

This Tennessee defense was on the field for 90-plus plays and 40-plus minutes against the Chiefs, so they are going to be tired.  The new up-tempo approach of the Broncos should help them take advantage of this tired defense.  I'm not concerned whether it's a hobbled Tannehill or rookie Willis at QB for this one, because it's not going to matter.

The numbers show the Titans are grossly overvalued.  They rank dead last in total offense at 278.5 yards per game and 23rd in total defense at 363.3 yards per game.  They are getting outgained by roughly 85 yards per game, which is the sign of like a 2-6 team, not one that is 5-3 like the Titans are.  They cannot keep winning in this fashion, and injuries are really starting to pile up for them, especially defensively.

I'll gladly back the fresher, healthier, hungrier team off a bye this week in the Broncos catching points.  The Broncos are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Titans.  Denver is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 games playing on two weeks of rest.  The Broncos are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after losing four of their last five games coming in.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Browns +4

I love the spot for the Cleveland Browns this week.  They are coming off their bye week and off one of the most impressive performances of any team this season.  They beat the Cincinnati Bengals 32-13 at home on Monday Night Football two weeks ago.  They outgained the Bengals 440 to 229, or by 211 total yards.  That's a Cincinnati team that is crushing everyone else recently.

Cleveland is simply undervalued right now due to its 3-5 record.  They are actually outscoring their opponents on the season and outgaining them by 55 yards per game.  Four of their five losses have come by 3 points or fewer and by a combined 9 points, so they have just been unfortunate in close games.

The good news is if they lose by 3, we cover.  The only reason we are getting 4 points with the Browns here is because of records, which show the Browns at 3-5 and the Dolphins at 6-3.  But unlike Cleveland, Miami has been very fortunate in close games.  In fact, the Dolphins are 5-0 in games decided by 6 points or fewer.  They only have one win by more than one score, which was the opener against New England.

The last three weeks they have been very fortunate to escape with victories over some bad teams.  They beat the Steelers by 6 at home, the Lions by 4 on the road and the Bears by 3 on the road.  The Browns are better than all three of those teams.  And they are in a favorable spot off the bye week.

I like the matchup for this Cleveland offense up against this Miami defense.  Miami allowed 252 rushing yards to the Bears last week.  Cleveland ranks 3rd in rushing at 164.6 yards per game and should be able to wear down this Miami defense with the two-headed monster of Chubb and Hunt.  There's a good chance TE David Njoku is back from an ankle injury this week too, though they didn't need him against Cincinnati.

This Cleveland defense is as healthy as it has been in a long time coming off the bye and should create some havoc with Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney getting after Tua.  He won't have nearly as much time as he's had the last three weeks against three terrible pass rushes in the Steelers, Lions and Bears.  CB Denzel Ward returns this week from a concussion, and he is their best cover corner, which is huge having him back to go up against Tyreke Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

The Browns are 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Miami) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games, in November games are 26-3 (89.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Browns Sunday.

20* Ravens/Saints ESPN No-Brainer on New Orleans +4

The New Orleans Saints look like the best 3-5 or worse team in the NFL right now.  That makes this a great opportunity to 'buy low' on them as home underdogs to the Baltimore Ravens this week.  The Saints have the numbers of a 5-3 team or better, not a 3-5 team.

New Orleans ranks 4th in the NFL in total offense at 394.4 yards per game and 5th at 6.0 yards per play.  The Saints rank 10th in total defense at 320.8 yards per game and 9th at 5.3 yards per play allowed.  So they are actually outgaining opponents by 74 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play, which are numbers of an elite team, not one that is 3-5 on the season.

The Saints have not had turnover luck on their side this season.  They have committed 16 turnovers while getting only 7 takeaways, so they are -9 in turnovers.  That gives us the opportunity to 'buy low' on this team because turnovers are hard to predict, and they won't keep turning it over at this rate.

Just two weeks ago the Saints gave the game away with two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns in the final two minutes before halftime against the Cardinals.  They still nearly won that game as they gained 494 total yards and outgained the Cardinals by 168 yards.  Those two picks weren't actually Andy Dalton's fault, and I like the fact that Dennis Allen stuck with him last week.

Dalton now has the full confidence of his team and his coach after guiding the Saints to a 24-0 shutout victory over the Las Vegas Raiders last week.  This was as dominant as any performance we have seen all season.  The Saints outgained the Raiders 367 to 183, or by 184 total yards.  They let their foot off the gas in the second half on offense.  Amazingly, the Raiders didn't even cross the 50-yard line on offense until the final couple minutes of the game.

The Baltimore Ravens are 5-3 but have the numbers of a 4-4 team.  They rank 10th in total offense at 359.4 yards per game and 8th at 5.9 yards per play.  They rank 24th in total defense allowing 364.3 yards per game and 21st at 5.7 yards per play.  They are actually getting outgained by 5 yards per game and outgaining opponents by 0.2 yards per play.

Given the numbers of these two teams, New Orleans should be favored on a neutral field.  Instead, this line of +4 indicates the Ravens would be close to -7 on a neutral field.  I would be laying one of my biggest bets of the season on the Saints +7.  I have already laid one of my biggest bets of the season on the Saints +4, grabbing a great opening line at Circa.  I know this number has been bet down to +2.5 as I anticipated it would, but I would still lay a big bet on the Saints at that number as I think they win this game outright.

The Ravens will be missing WR Bateman and could be without TE Andrews, who was forced from last week's game with a shoulder injury.  That would be two huge losses.  Andrews leads the team with 42 receptions for 488 yards and five touchdowns.  Batemen is third on the team with 15 receptions for 285 yards and two scores.  There isn't much talent outside of these two catching the football.  The Saints will be able to focus their game plan on stopping Lamar Jackson from running the football.

Plays on underdogs or PK (New Orleans) - with an incredible offense that averages 6.0 or more yards per play, after outgaining their last opponent by 150 or more total yards are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Finally, New Orleans has a bigger home-field advantage than it is getting credit for and it will be especially loud for this Monday Night Football showdown.  Bet the Saints Monday.

15* Rams/Bucs NFC ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay ML -125

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  They have gone 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have been through injuries and the Tom Brady divorce so they have had a ton of distractions in the first half of the season.

Getting this mini-bye week after playing on Thursday against the Ravens last week should do wonders for this team.  It will give them the break mentally they need.  Brady's divorce has been finalized, so hopefully he can try and put that behind him now.  And the Bucs are getting some key players back from injury this week, including DL Akiem Hicks.  They also could get some players back in the secondary.

The good news about this dreadful start for the Bucs is that they are only one game back in their division, so the season is not lost.  I expect them to put those first eight games behind them and get back to playing up to their potential, especially this week.  Adding to their motivation is they were eliminated by the Rams in the playoffs last year, so they will be out for revenge.

The Rams have been just as dreadful as the Bucs, and their problems don't appear to be fixable unlike Tampa Bay.  The Rams are 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS this season with their three wins coming over the Falcons, Cardinals and Panthers.  All of those games were close in the 4th quarter, too.

More concerning are the four losses that have all come by double-digits.  They returned from their bye last week and promptly laid an egg in a 31-14 home loss to the 49ers.  They wanted revenge on the 49ers, and they showed no resiliency at all, completely folding in the 2nd half.  And for whatever reason Cooper Kupp was still in the game down 17 in the final couple minutes and injured his ankle.  He was hobbled badly, and though he is expected to play this week, he won't be anywhere near 100%.

While the Rams still have a solid defense, it's the offense that has been the issue.  They are too predictable relying on Kupp almost exclusively to move the football.  They have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL and a very banged up one at that.  Stafford just doesn't have time to throw, and he has been terrible under pressure.  Allen Robinson has been a disappointment, and fellow WR Van Jefferson is battling a knee injury.  TE Tyler Higbee suffered a neck injury last week and is questionable as well.

Tampa Bay still has decent numbers averaging 5.2 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.1 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 0.1 yards per play.  The Rams are 31st averaging 4.8 yards per play on offense and 14th giving up 5.5 yards per play on defense.  They are getting outgained by 0.7 yards per play.

Tampa Bay has the better offense, the better defense, home-field advantage, the revenge factor and the mini-bye week for the rest advantage.  All of those factors working in their favor is worth more than this current point spread, which has them at just -125 on the money line.  They should be at least -3.5, so we'll take advantage and back them at this discounted price this week.  Roll with the Bucs on the Money Line Sunday.

25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Indianapolis Colts +6.5

This line is an overreaction from last week's results.  Indianapolis lost outright as a home favorite to the Washington Commanders, while the New England Patriots went on the road and won and covered against the New York Jets.  So now this gives us the opportunity to 'buy low' on the Colts, and to 'sell high' on the Patriots.

I have these teams power ranked as pretty much equals right now.  Ok, give the Patriots 3 points for home-field advantage, which is generous, and this line should be Patriots -3.  We are getting 3.5 points of value here to pull the trigger on the Colts based off of last week's results.

Well, last week the Colts gave Sam Ehlinger his first career start.  He played as well as one could expect and I think he has a bright future.  Ehlinger completed 17-of-23 passes for 201 yards without an interception, while also rushing for 15 yards.  But the Commanders pulled off a miracle, erasing a 9-point deficit in the final five minutes to win 17-16 behind more heroics from Taylor Heineke.

I like that Ehlinger now has a start under his belt, and he is an upgrade from Matt Ryan, who had more turnovers than any other QB in the NFL and is too stationary.  Ehlinger gives them dual-threat ability and helps mask a shaky offensive line.  The Colts fired their offensive coordinator, so Frank Reich is likely to be more involved, which is a good thing.  He will be a tremendous mentor for Ehlinger moving forward.

I also think this line is inflated due to the Colts being without Johnathan Taylor and trading away Nyheem Hines.  Taylor has been banged up all season and has been a shell of himself.  Deon Jackson will get the start, and he offers great playmaking ability in both rushing and receiving.  He has 100 rushing yards and a touchdown and 14 receptions for 108 yards in limited action.  The Colts also got Zack Moss in the Hines trade from Buffalo, and he's a great pass blocker and receiver.  Veteran Philip Lindsay has been lifted from the practice squad to help out, too.

After getting embarrassed on Monday Night Football 14-33 as 9.5-point home favorites against the Chicago Bears two weeks ago, the Patriots came back and beat the Jets 22-17 on the road last week.  But their problems aren't fixed with that one win.  It was a Jets team that had just lost their top two playmakers on offense in Breece Hall and Cory Davis, so they were limited offensively.  

Yet the Jets still outgained the Patriots 387 to 288 and arguably should have won.  The difference was a pick-6 that Mac Jones threw that was called back on a roughing the passer penalty.  The roughing had nothing to do with the pick, and the Patriots were bailed out on yet another terrible throw by Jones.  He just isn't very good and seems to have INT's dropped every week.  Jones and the Patriots cannot be trusted to lay this big of a number against a team the quality of the Colts.

Yards per play and strength of schedule are two of my favorite things to look for in the NFL when comparing teams.  Well, Indianapolis is only getting outgained by 0.1 yards per play this season, averaging 5.1 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.2 yards per play on defense.  The Patriots are similar, averaging 5.5 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.5 yards per play on defense to break even.  These are both basically average teams, which is why I have them power rated the same.  The Patriots have played the 25th-ranked schedule while the Colts have played the 20th.

Indianapolis is 8-0 ATS in road games vs. poor rushing defenses that allow 4.5 or more yards per carry over the last three seasons.  The Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. AFC East opponents.  Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games after failing to cove the spread in two of its last three games.  These three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing the Colts.  Bet the Colts Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Lions +3.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Detroit Lions this week.  They have lost five consecutive games while going 0-4 ATS in their last four.  But they will have no problem getting back up off the mat this week to face their hated division rival in the Green Bay Packers.  It's the perfect opponent for them to bring out their 'A' game against.

It's easy to see how the Lions are undervalued this week.  Consider that they were 3.5-point home underdogs to the Dolphins last week, and now are identical 3.5-point home dogs to the Packers this week.  Well, I have Miami as a Top 10 team, and Green Bay as a below average team in their current state.  This line cannot be the same as it was last week against Miami.

The Packers are getting some love because they finally ended their own 0-4 ATS skid with a fortune cover as 10.5-point dogs last week at Buffalo in a 10-point loss.  They trailed by 17 most the game and never really sniffed winning it.  Their problems aren't fixed.  The Packers are 0-4 SU in their last four games overall with upset losses to the Giants, Jets and Commanders.

The problems that still exist for the Packers is that they are banged up along the offensive line and at receiver and just don't have many weapons for Aaron Rodgers.  It has been a dink and dunk offense all season as they are very predictable and easy to contain, even for a defense as bad as this Detroit stop unit.  Allen Lazard and Christian Watson may be back this week, but both are questionable, and they are still without Randall Cobb.  They lost a couple more players to injury on defense last week and three key LB's in Campbell, Smith and Barnes are all questionable.

I was on the Lions +3.5 last week and it was a tough loss because they scored 27 points in the first half and got shut out after intermission to lose by 4 to the Dolphins.  But this is a different team now than the one the previous few weeks that was banged up.  WR St. Brown and RB Swift are back healthy and playing.  Their offense is dynamic with all these playmakers, and they will never be out of this game because of it.  This Green Bay offense in its current state isn't capable of getting separation either.  This just has the makings of a gritty divisional showdown that is decided by a FG either way, so getting +3.5 with the Lions at home is a great value.

The Lions are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Detroit is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings at Ford Field.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Green Bay) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games, in November games are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Lions Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Dolphins/Bears OVER 45.5

This Miami offense is absolutely explosive when healthy.  That has been evident when Tua has been in the lineup.  In fact, the Dolphins are 5-0 in games in which Tua has started and finished and have scored 26.0 points per game in those five games.  They will have their way with this soft Chicago defense this week.

Chicago just gave up 49 points to the Dallas Cowboys last week.  They traded away Robert Quinn last week and now traded away Roquan Smith this week.  Those are arguably their two best players on defense and certainly their two biggest leaders in the locker room.  Chicago already had one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and it is going to be even worse moving forward.

But the Bears are improving rapidly on offense.  After scoring 33 points on the Patriots two weeks ago, they came back with 29 more points this week.  They are playing to their strengths, which is using Fields' legs and the one-two punch of Montgomery and Herbert on the ground.  They have rushed for at least 238 yards in three consecutive games, and Fields is getting more efficient as a passer.

Reinforcements are on the way this week for this Chicago offense as well as they traded for WR Chase Claypool of the Steelers to give Fields another weapon.  They should be able to pick apart this Miami defense, which has injuries all of their secondary.  The Lions were able to score 27 points on the Dolphins last week in the first half alone and finished with 311 passing yards.  And we saw what a mobile QB could do to the Dolphins earlier this season when Lamar Jackson led the Ravens to 38 points and 473 total yards against them, including 155 rushing.

The only thing holding me back from pulling the trigger on this total was the forecast, which called for a chance of rain and heavy winds earlier this week.  But that forecast has since cleared up and there will be no rain in Chicago, temps in the 50's and only 10-15 MPH winds.  It should be good scoring conditions for this two improving offenses and declining defenses.

Miami ranks 26th in the NFL allowing 5.9 yards per play on defense while Chicago ranks 22nd allowing 5.7 yards per play.  Miami ranks 3rd in the NFL averaging 6.2 yards per play on offense, which is very impressive considering Tua has only started and finished five of their eight games.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Eagles/Texans Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Philadelphia -13.5

The Philadelphia Eagles are a freight train.  They are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS with three wins by 16 or more points.  They are outscoring opponents by 11.1 points per game, outgaining them by nearly 100 yards per game and by 1.1 yards per play.  They made some moves prior to the deadline to get even stronger.  And they are as healthy as any team in the NFL right now.

Now the Eagles face the worst team in the NFL in the Houston Texans.  Houston is getting outgained by 115 yards per game and 1.1 yards per play.  No. 1 receiver Brandon Cooks wants traded and may not play.  No. 2 receiver Nico Collins is out with a groin injury.  And their best defensive player in DL Maliek Collins is out for this game.  And that's just the start of it as they have one of the longest injury reports in the NFL.

Last week the Texans knew the Titans were going to run the football and they still couldn't stop it.  Tennessee went with backup Malik Willis instead of Ryan Tannehill and he threw 10 times.  The Titans ran it 45 times for 314 yards on this soft Houston run defense.  Well, now they are going to face another elite rushing offense in the Eagles who average 150 rushing yards per game.  But they are dynamic and multi-dimensional unlike Tennessee.  They also throw for 246 yards per game.

The Eagles are going to be able to move the football at will and continue to score in this game, and the Texans just aren't going to be able to catch up.  They average just 16.6 points per game and 289 yards per game on offense.  Davis Mills has taken a step back this year, and it's not getting any easier for him this week without WR Collins and possibly Cooks.  Even if Cooks plays he probably won't be fully into this game.  The Eagles are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take the Eagles Thursday.

20* Bengals/Browns ESPN No-Brainer on Cincinnati -3

Note: I took the Bengals at -3 before the news came out that Ja'Marr Chase would be out for the Bengals.  I thought this line should have been higher than 3.  I still think we are getting a good number at -3 without him, but there's less of an edge here now.

The good news is the Bengals are still loaded with weapons for one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in Joe Burrow.  Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins are both No. 2 receivers in this league.  They have combined for 60 receptions for 910 yards and five touchdowns.  Hayden Hurst also has 29 receptions for 226 yards and two scores.  And Joe Mixon has 587 yards and three touchdowns from scrimmage.  They're going to be just fine, at least for this one game.

The Bengals have really gotten their offense going the last couple weeks by going to the shotgun on 90% of snaps.  That's where Burrow thrives, and they are now one of the most pass-happy teams in the league.  They scored 30 points against the Saints two weeks ago before crushing Atlanta 35-17 last week with 537 total yards.  They have scored 27 or more points in four of their last five games while going 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in the process.

The Cleveland Browns are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  That includes a 38-15 loss to the Patriots in their last home game.  Their offense has really been held in check of late in averaging 20.8 points per game in their last four games.  Now they will be without one of Jacoby Brissett's favorite weapons in TE David Njoku, who has 34 receptions for 418 yards and one touchdown this season.  

That leaves Amari Cooper as the only reliable weapon outside for Brissett.  I just can't see them being able to match the Bengals score for score with this lackluster offense, especially since they are facing an underrated Cincinnati defense that ranks 6th in scoring at 18.9 points per game, 10th in total defense at 321.1 yards per game and 9th in allowing 5.2 yards per play.

The Browns also have injury concerns on defense.  Myles Garrett, Jadeveon Clowney and Denzel Ward are all questionable.  Fellow cornerbacks Greg Newsome II and Greedy Williams are also questionable.  This is a poor Cleveland defense that ranks 28th in scoring allowing 26.8 points per game and 20th allowing 5.7 yards per play.  

The Browns also rank 24th in allowing 7.1 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks.  That's really bad when you consider the quarterbacks they have faced in Baker Mayfield, Joe Flacco, Mitch Trubisky, Marcus Mariota, Bailey Zappe, Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert.  In fact, the Browns have faced the 2nd-easiest schedule in the NFL to this point overall and are still just 2-5 on the season.

The Bengals are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  Cincinnati is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings, including 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in Cleveland.  Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. good rushing teams that average 4.5 or more yards per carry.  The Bengals are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following three or more consecutive ATS victories.  The Browns are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a road loss.  Cleveland is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after playing its last game on the road.  These last four trends combine for a 28-0 system backing Cincinnati.  Bet the Bengals Monday.

20* Packers/Bills NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Green Bay +11.5

For starters, Aaron Rodgers hasn't been more than 8.5-point underdog in his career.  That's 234 starts without being a double-digit dog.  That fact alone shows you this is a 'buy low' spot on the Packers, and we'll do just.  We'll back a Packers team that has lost three straight and failed to cover four in a row.

Rodgers is better when he is playing with a chip on his shoulder, and he will be in that mindset this week.  Everyone is counting the Packers out playing the Super Bowl favorite in the Buffalo Bills on Sunday Night Football.  He will rally the troops and put forth the best effort of the season.  The Packers have had a way of playing to the level of their competition, and they'll step it up this week.

I think this is a terrible spot for the Bills.  They are coming off their bye week, but they were feeling fat and happy the last two weeks after beating the Kansas City Chiefs 24-20 two weeks back.  That is the game they had circled all offseason, getting revenge on a Chiefs team that knocked them out of the playoffs for a second consecutive season.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Packers as they were to beat the Chiefs.

We've seen the Bills let teams hang around this season.  They lost 19-21 at Miami, needed a last-second FG to beat the Ravens 23-20 and beat the Chiefs 24-20.  They are beatable, and at the very least the Packers can keep this game within single-digits with the proper game plan.  

The strength of their team this year is their running game and Aaron Jones, and I expect the Packers to embrace is this week and feed the horse.  The weakness of the Bills is the interior of their defense as they can be run on.  So controlling the clock with the running game and short passes to Jones out of the backfield is a recipe for success here.  

I know the Packers will be without Allen Lazard, but they should get WR Christian Watson back this week, and Sammy Watkins is healthy as well.  Their best defender in LB Rashan Gary is upgraded to probable as well.  They are hopeful to have both T Bakhtiari and G Jenkins in the lineup as both have missed time over the past couple seasons.  The Bills will be without T Brown, CB White and S Hyde for this one.

The actual strength of the Packers this season is their defense, which allows 20.9 points per game while ranking 7th in total defense at 308.4 yards per game.  They can get enough stops here to be able to hang around while the offense methodically moves the ball down the field and keeps Buffalo's offense off the field for the majority of this game.

Plays against home teams (Buffalo) - outgaining opponents by 1.25 or more passing yards per game, after gaining 7 or more yards per pass attempt in two consecutive games are 43-12 (78.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Packers Sunday Night.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Detroit Lions +3.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Detroit Lions this week.  They have lost four consecutive games including two straight blowout losses to the Patriots 29-0 and the Cowboys 24-6.  But they were far from healthy in those last two games, and they are getting a lot of players back this week.  

The Lions were going in to take a 13-10 lead against the Cowboys in the 4th quarter but fumbled at the 1-yard line.  That completely changed the game.  They were only outgained by 18 yards by the Cowboys, so it was much closer than the final score would indicate.  They came through with their best defensive performance of the season in limiting a potent Dallas attack to just 330 total yards.

Reinforcements are on the way for the Lions this week.  They will be getting RB DeAndre Swift and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown back from injury.  TE TJ Hockenseon and WR Josh Reynolds are healthy, as are T Taylor Decker and C Frank Ragnew, who are all listed as probable.  Swift rushed for 231 yards and averaged 8.6 yards per carry in the first three games this season.  St. Brown has 28 receptions for 275 yards and three scores in basically just four games of action.  Reynolds and Hockenson have also been huge for this team, combining for 47 receptions, 658 yards and five touchdowns.

The Dolphins have six of their top eight int he secondary on the injury report.  They will be without S Brandon Jones, who leads the team with 49 tackles and also has two sacks.  The Lions are going to be able to shred their defense this week.  Tua did not look great in his return to the lineup last week, leading the Dolphins to just 16 points against the Steelers.  He should have more success this week, but I liked what I saw from this Detroit defense last week.  Either way, the Dolphins shouldn't be 3.5-point favorites on the road against anyone.

The Lions are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  The Dolphins are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight October games.  Miami is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.  Detroit is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss.  The Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. good offensive teams that average at least 350 yards per game.  Detroit is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games following two consecutive losses by 14 points or more.  Bet the Lions Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Saints +1.5

The New Orleans Saints look like the best 2-5 or worse team in the NFL right now.  That makes this a great opportunity to 'buy low' on them as home underdogs to the Las Vegas Raiders this week.  The Saints have the numbers of a 5-2 team, not a 2-5 team.

New Orleans ranks 3rd in the NFL in total offense at 398.3 yards per game and 5th at 6.1 yards per play.  The Saints rank 14th in total defense at 340.4 yards per game and 18th at 5.6 yards per play allowed.  So they are actually outgaining opponents by 58 yards per game and 0.5 yards per play, which are numbers of an elite team, not one that is 2-5 on the season.

The Saints have not had turnover luck on their side this season.  They have committed 16 turnovers while getting only 6 takeaways, so they are -10 in turnovers.  That gives us the opportunity to 'buy low' on this team because turnovers are hard to predict.

Just last week the Saints gave the game away with two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns in the final two minutes before halftime against the Cardinals.  They still nearly won that game as they gained 494 total yards and outgained the Cardinals by 168 yards.  Those two picks weren't actually Andy Dalton's fault, and I like the fact that Dennis Allen is sticking with him this week.  They have extra prep time after playing the Cardinals last Thursday, which is a bonus too.

While the Saints are coming off a misleading loss to the Cardinals, the Raiders are coming off a misleading 38-20 win over the Texans.  They actually gave up 404 yards to a terrible Houston offense and were outgained in that game.  But they got a 73-yard interception return for a TD late in the game that put it away, which was basically a 14-point swing.

The Raiders can't be trusted as road favorites here because they have a leaky defense.  They rank 26th in scoring defense at 25.0 points per game, 24th in total defense at 366.7 yards per game and 23rd in allowing 5.8 yards per play.  They also had a flu bug go through their team this week that has been a big distraction and caused players to miss practice.  That magnifies the rest and preparation advantage the Saints have had after playing last Thursday and getting 10 days to prepare for this game.

The Raiders are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Las Vegas is 0-3 SU on the road this season.  Plays against road favorites (Las Vegas) - in a game involving two teams that allow 335 to 370 yards per game defensively, after gaining 375 or more yards in two consecutive games are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS since 1983.  Take the Saints Sunday.

20* AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on New England Patriots ML -130

This is a great 'buy low' spot on the New England Patriots.  They were just upset 33-14 on Monday Night Football as 8.5-point favorites, failing to cover the spread by 27.5 points.  They were embarrassed, and now they'll come back highly motivated to beat a division opponent here in the New York Jets, especially since they currently reside in last place in the division.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Jets, who have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall despite terrible QB play from Zach Wilson.  A great defense and RB Breece Hall and WR Cory Davis have masked Wilson's QB play.  Well, now Hall and Davis are out, so they are down their two biggest weapons on offense.  They aren't going to be able to overcome it.

The Jets have benefited from playing a rookie or backup QB in three of their four wins during this streak.  They beat Brett Rypien and the Broncos last week, Skylar Thompson and the Dolphins and a combination of Mitch Trubisky and Kenny Pickett, who combined for four interceptions.  When they faced a real team with a legit QB, they lost by 15 to the Ravens and lost by 15 to the Bengals.

The Jets also lost their best offensive linemen in Alijah Vera-Tucker to an injury last week, and he's out along with Davis and Hall.  Hall has 681 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns and is irreplaceable.  So is Davis, who has 19 receptions for 351 yards and two scores to lead the team.  Wilson is completing just 57.4% of his passes with a 1-to-2 TD/INT ratio this season.

I like that the Patriots have announced they are going with Mac Jones moving forward.  This should put some stability into the offense, and he should be another week healthy after returning last week against the Bears before getting replaced by Zappe.  He is the more talented QB with the bigger upside, and he will be playing with a chip on his shoulder this week.

The Patriots own the Jets, going 12-0 SU in the last 12 meetings with their last loss to them in 2015.  And we just need them to win straight up here.  Bill Belichick is 11-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread by 21-plus points in his previous game as the coach of the Patriots.  New England is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after being outgained by 100 or more yards last game.  The Jets' luck runs out this week against a better, pissed off New England team.  Bet the Patriots on the Money Line Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh Steelers +10.5

Not all bye weeks are created equal.  The Philadelphia Eagles are coming off their bye week, and I think that's being factored too much into this line.  Sometimes bye weeks are great for teams to regroup, but the Eagles didn't need to regroup.  Also, the Eagles have played the 3rd-easiest schedule in the NFL, while the Steelers have played the 3rd-toughest.  So the numbers for both teams up to this point are misleading.

The Eagles are the only remaining unbeaten team in the NFL at 6-0 this season.  So if anything, the bye week puts a halt to their momentum.  They are coming off a win over their biggest rivals in the Cowboys going into the bye week, so they are clearly feeling fat and happy right now and not as motivated as most teams would be going into a bye week.  I think this bye week could actually be a bad thing for the Eagles.

Either way, I think the Steelers have the goods to be able to hang with the Eagles Sunday.  After upsetting the Bucs at home two weeks ago, the Steelers hung tough with the Miami Dolphins last week in a 16-10 road loss.  They had a chance to win that game late as their defense kept them in it.  I think Kenny Pickett is going to keep getting better with each passing start, and he could be primed for his best performance of the season this week.

The Eagles aren't really blowing anyone out.  They have just two of their six wins by double-digits.  Their last three games were all decided by 9 points or fewer.  After beating the Jaguars by 8 at home, they only beat the Cardinals by 3 on the road and were actually outgained in that game.  Their 26-17 win over the Cowboys last time out was misleading as their offense was held to 268 total yards, but they benefitted from being +3 in turnovers.

A big reason the Eagles are 6-0 is due to turnover luck.  They are +12 in turnovers through six games.  I have a hard time trusting those teams that have had the turnover luck on their side.  The Steelers have been getting healthier defensively in recent weeks and will have the proper game plan to slow down Jalen Hurts and his dual-threat ability.  No team has had more success stopping Lamar Jackson in recent seasons than the Steelers, so they know how to defend running quarterbacks.

Mike Tomlin is 16-5 ATS vs. teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better as the coach of Pittsburgh.  The Steelers are 27-11-1 ATS in their last 39 games in the month of October.  The Eagles are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games following an ATS win.  Take the Steelers Sunday.

15* Ravens/Bucs Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tampa Bay -1

This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  They are coming off the most shocking loss of the season, a 21-3 road loss to the Carolina Panthers.  If Mike Evans didn't drop a wide open touchdown that would have given the Bucs a 7-0 lead, that game would have played out much differently.  Nothing went right for the Bucs after that.

The Bucs are now 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  You'll never get them at a better price this season.  The lookahead line on this game was Bucs -3.5, and now we are getting the Bucs at basically a PK.  Whatever the Bucs have to give, they are going to give in this game to try and turn their season around in front of their home crowd.

The Baltimore Ravens are coming off a 23-20 home win over the Browns as 6.5-point favorites that they did not deserve.  The Ravens were outgained 336 to 254 by the Browns and 6.0 to 4.0 yards per play.  A bad Cleveland defense shut them down, and it took an overturned TD to Amari Cooper late for the Ravens to escape with a victory.

This Baltimore offense has been broken the last four weeks.  The Ravens have managed just 20.5 points per game and just 320.3 yards per game in their last four games.  They aren't going to get any separation from the Bucs, who still have a very good defense that allows just 17.7 points and 308.3 yards per game.  Their defense will keep them in this game, and Tom Brady will make enough plays to get Tampa Bay a much-needed bounce back victory.

And that's why I'm taking the Bucs here because they have the best unit on the field in their defense, and they will be the team playing with more of a sense of urgency tonight.  The Ravens actually rank just 23rd in total defense allowing 366.4 yards per game and 19th in allowing 5.7 yards per play.  Tampa Bay ranks 7th allowing just 4.9 yards per play on defense.

Baltimore is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games after playing its last game at home.  Tampa Bay is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games following an upset loss as a favorite.  Tom Brady hasn't lost three consecutive games since 2002.  He has never been two games under .500 in his career.  I'll side with history here and for Brady and the Bucs to get the job done.  Roll with the Bucs Thursday.

20* Bears/Patriots ESPN No-Brainer on Chicago +9

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the New England Patriots.  They are coming off three consecutive covers which were all three misleading final scores.  Now they find themselves laying nearly double-digits against the Chicago Bears Monday night.

The Patriots were 10-point underdogs at Green Bay three weeks ago and took the Packers to overtime before losing by 3.  They were outgained by 172 yards by the Packers.  They took advantage of a banged up Detroit Lions team two weeks ago and won 29-0 as 3-point home favorites.  They only outgained the Lions by 52 yards.  And last week they won 38-15 at Cleveland as 2.5-point dogs.  But they only outgained the Browns by 71 yards.

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Bears.  They are coming off a very misleading 12-7 home loss to the Washington Commanders last Thursday.  They outgained the Commanders 391 to 214, or by 177 total yards.  But a muffed punt changed that game, and the Bears went 0-for-3 inside the five yard line, coming away with just 3 points on those three trips.

Chicago doesn't get blown out.  The Bears are 2-4 this season but three losses came by 8 points or fewer, including road losses to the Vikings by 7 and the Giants by 8, two teams that are a combined 11-2 this season.  I think the Bears have what it takes to hang with the Patriots, who aren't an offensive juggernaut and will struggle to cover big numbers.  The Patriots haven't been more than a 3-point favorite in any game thus far this season.

The Patriots do have the better offense, but these teams are pretty equal defensively.  Chicago allows 19.7 points per game and 341.7 yards per game, while New England allows 18.8 points per game and 337.8 yards per game.  Is New England's offense coupled with home-field advantage worth 9 points to the spread?  I don't think so.

Chicago is a great rushing team averaging 171 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry.  We saw the Patriots struggle to defend the run against the only mobile QB they faced in the Ravens.  They gave up 37 points and 188 rushing yards to Baltimore.  They also gave up 199 rushing yards to the Packers.  The Patriots rank 24th in the NFL allowing 4.7 yards per rush this season.  They can be run on, and the Bears will have success moving the ball on the ground.

I think it's concerning for the Patriots that Mac Jones is back healthy now.  Bailey Zappe was awesome in his absence and the Patriots had something good going going 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS with him.  But Jones makes his return tonight, and he consistently makes terrible decisions with several interceptions being dropped already this season.  Jones will be rusty, and he has a lot of pressure on his shoulders.

Plays against home teams (New England) - outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more passing yards per attempt, after gaining 7 or more passing yards per attempt in two consecutive games are 42-12 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Chicago is also one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now, and I like that they have extra prep time after playing last Thursday, especially with a first-year head coach.  Bet the Bears Monday.

20* Seahawks/Chargers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 50

Seattle ranks 29th in scoring defense at 27.2 points per game, 30th in total defense at 410.8 yards per game and 30th in allowing 6.2 yards per play this season.  The Chargers are going to put forth their best offensive performance of the season against the worst defense they have faced yet.  

The Chargers are expected to get Keenan Allen back this week, and Justin Herbert should have a monster game.  Seattle ranks 30th in allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt and has a ton of injuries in the secondary right now.  That's going to make it tough covering all these weapons for the Chargers.  Los Angeles also got good news this week with a couple starters healthy along the offensive line that they were missing last week against the Broncos.

Seattle ranks 9th in scoring offense this season at 24.3 points per game.  Geno Smith has the highest completion percentage in the NFL and some of the best weapons in the league with Lockett and Metcalf.  But the Seahawks want to run the ball, ranking 11th in rushing at 124.3 yards per game and 3rd in averaging 5.3 yards per attempt.

The Seahawks are going to be able to move the football on the ground at will against the soft interior of this Chargers defense.  In fact, the Chargers rank 31st in the NFL in allowing 5.6 yards per rush attempt.  The Browns rushed for 213 yards on them two weeks ago in a 30-28 victory in a shootout.  It should be a similar result in this game in a shootout as both teams' offensive strengths are the weaknesses of these defenses.

Seattle is 11-1 OVER in its last 12 games following an upset win as an underdog.  The OVER is 9-3 in Chargers last 12 games overall.  The OVER is 6-0 in Chargers last six games after gaining more than 350 yards in their previous game.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Falcons +6.5

The Atlanta Falcons have an offense that teams just cannot figure out.  They rank 9th in scoring offense at 24.3 points per game behind a run-heavy attack that ranks 3rd in the NFL at 165.2 yards per game.  They are going to be able to run the ball on the Bengals, who are without two of their best run stoppers in DT Tupou and DE Gunter.  The Bengals gave up 228 rushing yards to the Saints last week.  They rank 23rd in allowing 4.7 yards per carry this season.

The Falcons upset the 49ers 28-14 last week to improve to a perfect 6-0 ATS this season.  They are the single-most underrated team in the NFL this season and continue to be this week as nearly touchdown underdogs to the Bengals.  They did take advantage of a banged up 49ers team, but it was impressive nonetheless.  They rushed for 168 yards and Marcus Mariota went 13-of-14 passing in the win.  They will be able to run all over this Cincinnati defense.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Bengals, who have covered the spread in four consecutive games coming in.  They beat Joe Flacco and the Jets, beat a Miami team that lost starting QB Tua early, lost the Ravens and needed a last-second TD to beat the Saints and backup QB Andy Dalton last week.  They have taken advantage of facing a bunch of backup quarterbacks, and lost the only game they played against a legit team in the Ravens.  And the Bengals were actually outgained in three of those four games and only outgained the Jets by 2 yards.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Cincinnati) - after two consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers against an opponents that committed one or fewer turnovers in three  consecutive games are 32-6 (84.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Falcons Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Bucs -11

The Carolina Panthers are going to be fade material the rest of the way.  I thought they'd get a one-game boost with a new head coach and a new quarterback last week.  Well that boost only lasted for a half.  The Panthers had a 10-7 lead against the Rams, but it was all downhill from there.  They got outscored 17-0 after halftime.

WR Robbie Anderson was seen arguing with coaches on the sideline and was kicked out, eventually getting traded to the Cardinals.  The Panthers managed just 203 total yards against the Rams.  Amazingly, Christian McCaffrey had 158 of those 203 yards, accounting for 78% of their yards from scrimmage.  Now McCaffrey is mired in trade rumors and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Panthers lighten his workload so he doesn't get hurt.

They are broken on offense and down to 4th and 5th stringers in PJ Walker and Jacob Eason at quarterback.  Their defense is good, but that defense has broken in the 2nd half of three consecutive games because they get tired from being on the field too much.  They gave up 23 points in the 2nd half to the Cardinals three weeks ago.  They gave up 20 points to the 49ers in the 2nd half two weeks ago.  And last week they were outscored 17-0 by the Rams after intermission.

The Bucs are pissed off after getting upset by the Steelers as double-digit favorites last week.  They settled for four field goals including three from 30 yards and in as they struggled in the red zone.  That's not going to happen again.  The Bucs are getting healthier each week and it's a good time to 'buy low' on them off that loss.

In fact, double-digit favorites that lost outright the previous week and are now double-digit favorites in their next game are a perfect 10-0 ATS since 2009.  The Bucs have owned the Panthers the past two seasons going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS with all four wins by 14 points or more and by an average of 21.8 points per game.

I expect the Bucs to pour it on in the 2nd half against a fatigued Panthers defense yet again this week and to build on their lead.  The Panthers aren't capable of getting in the back door with their putrid offense.  This one has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Bucs Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Falcons/Bengals OVER 47

The Atlanta Falcons have an offense that teams just cannot figure out.  They rank 9th in scoring offense at 24.3 points per game behind a run-heavy attack that ranks 3rd in the NFL at 165.2 yards per game.  They are going to be able to run the ball on the Bengals, who are wtihout two of their best run stoppers in DT Tupou and DE Gunter.  The Bengals gave up 228 rushing yards to the Saints last week.  They rank 23rd in allowing 4.7 yards per carry this season.

The Bengals got their offense going last week putting up 30 points on the Saints and have now scored 27 or more points in three of their last four games.  They will be able to take advantage of an Atlanta defense that ranks 27th in allowing 385.2 yards per game.  The Falcons are missing two starters at cornerback, so Joe Burrow should have a big game through the air.  The Falcons rank 31st in allowing 281.2 passing yards per game.

It is supposed to be 72 degrees in Cincinnati Sunday and only 8 MPH winds, so it's perfect conditions for a shootout.  Both defenses are susceptible to the strengths of the opposing offenses, which is exactly what I like for an OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lions/Cowboys OVER 49

The Dallas Cowboys have the potential to be the best offense in the NFL now with Dak Prescott returning this week.  They also have both CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz healthy, and just recently got back Michael Gallup.  Prescott comes back to his full arsenal of weapons.

The Cowboys will hang a big number on the Detroit Lions, who rank last in the NFL in scoring defense allowing 34.0 points per game.  The Lions are also last in the NFL in allowing 428.6 yards per game and last in the NFL in allowing 6.5 yards per play.  Simply put, they have the worst defense in the league.

The Lions should be able to hang with the Cowboys by matching them score for score.  They are expected to get back WR St. Brown from injury, and he was a monster before going down.  They could also get back RB Swift this week as they are coming off their bye with their offense getting healthier.  Just getting Jared Goff's favorite weapon back in St. Brown is massive.  He has 27 receptions for 271 yards and three touchdowns in three games this season.

Even with these injuries, the Lions still rank 3rd in scoring offense at 28.0 points per game.  They are also 2nd in total offense at 411.8 yards per game.  They have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, which has opened up big holes in the running game while also giving Goff the necessary time he needs to find open receivers for being a stationary QB.  Dallas does have good defensive numbers, but this will be their toughest test yet.

I think it's rare that you will see a total involving the Lions in the 40's the rest of the season, so we'll take advantage this week.  The OVER is 6-1 in Lions last seven games overall.  The OVER is 6-0 in Lions last six games vs. NFC opponents.  The OVER is 21-7 in Cowboys last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The OVER is 8-1 in the last eight meetings between the Lions and Cowboys and they have combined for 50 or more points in eight of those nine meetings.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Saints/Cardinals NFC No-Brainer on New Orleans +2.5

Note: I was waiting for a +3 on the site to release this pick.  It hasn't come yet.  I did personally bet the Saints +3 (-115) at DraftKings this morning.  I recommend waiting as long as you can for a +3 (-120) or better to bet this pick, but I still would bet it at +2.5 if you can't get the +3.  I expect the Saints to win this game outright.

The New Orleans Saints and Arizona Cardinals are both 2-4 this season.  The difference is the Saints are better than their 2-4 record would indicate, while the Cardinals are just as bad as their 2-4 record and could be worse.

The Cardinals were never in the game in their four losses, a 23-point loss to the Chiefs, an 8-point loss to the Rams, trailed the Eagles 14-0 before coming on late, and their 10-point loss to the Seahawks.  The Seahawks have one of the worst defenses in the league, and the Cardinals didn't score a single offensive touchdown in their 19-9 defeat last week.

The two wins weren't impressive, either.  They erased a 7-point halftime deficit to beat the Panthers, who are 1-5 this season and broken.  They needed a 16-point second half comeback and help from the refs to beat the Raiders, who are 1-4.  So their two wins have come against teams that are a combined 2-9 this season.

The Cardinals are now getting love for the fact that they get DeAndre Hopkins back from suspension.  But they are basically trading him out for Marquise Brown, who has become Kyler Murray's favorite target and will be missed after suffering an injury against the Seahawks that will keep him out at least a month.  

Brown has 43 receptions, 485 yards and three touchdowns this season and is the security blanket for Murray.  I don't expect the chemistry to be great between Murray and Hopkins in his first game back on a short week.  This offense is still broken, and a big reason why is injuries to the offensive line and at running back as well for the Cardinals.

The Saints are 2-4 despite outgaining four of their six opponents, and the two games they got outgained were by 6 and 31 yards.  They average 382 yards per game on offense and only give up 343 yards per game on defense, actually outgaining opponents by 39 yards per game.  Despite being hampered by injuries on offense, it hasn't slowed them down one bit, and they get WR Chris Olave back this week.

The Saints put up 25 points on the Vikings, 39 points on the Seahawks and 26 points on the Bengals the last three weeks.  They have been able to run the football at will on everyone, averaging 152 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry.  Expect a heavy dose of Alvin Kamara both rushing and receiving in this one.  Andy Dalton is proving he is still a starting-caliber QB in this league.

I know the Saints don't have the best defensive numbers yet, but they have also played a brutal schedule of opposing offenses.  This will be the worst offense they have faced all season outside of the Panthers, who they held to 293 total yards.  The Cardinals are managing just 19.0 points per game, 346 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.

Arizona is 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games, yet it is a favorite here.  The Cardinals are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games as favorites of 7 points or less.  The Saints are 43-26 ATS in their last 69 road games off a home loss.  New Orleans is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. poor defenses that allow 5.65 or more yards per play.  Arizona is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 home games vs. good rushing teams that average 5.0 or more yards per carry.  The Saints are 38-16 ATS in their last 54 road games.

Plays on underdogs or PK (New Orleans) - after a game where they committed zero turnovers against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 25-3 (89.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Saints Thursday.

20* Broncos/Chargers ESPN No-Brainer on Denver +4.5

The Denver Broncos had massive expectations coming into the season with the addition of Russell Westbrook.  Their 2-3 start this season has them as one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL as a result.  But now we get the opportunity to 'buy low' on the Broncos, who could easily be 4-1 instead of 2-3.  It seems as though the mistakes are easily correctable.

The Broncos outgained the Colts by 69 yards last week and should have won.  They were in the red zone looking to go up 10 late to put the game away, but Wilson threw a bad INT in the end zone.  The Colts would go on to tie the game in the final seconds and win it in OT.  That was the second game they gave away this season.  They also lost 17-16 to the Seahawks despite outgaining them by 180 yards.

The Broncos have the numbers of a 4-1 team and not a 2-3 team.  They rank 18th in total offense at 343.6 yards per game and have had success running the football, they just haven't been able to turn it into points with their red zone struggles.  They rank 3rd in total defense, allowing 289.0 yards per game.  So they are outgaining teams by 54.6 yards per game on the season, which is one of the best marks in the NFL.

The Chargers are 3-2 this season and 4-1 ATS thus far.  It's time to 'sell high' on them because of this start.  They are only outgaining teams by 22.2 yards per game on the season.  Their defense is a problem as they are giving up 27.2 points per game, 368.2 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  They rank 30th in scoring defense, 23rd in total defense and 31st in yards per play allowed.  That's not the sign of an elite team.  I'll gladly back the much better defensive team in the Broncos.

Keep in mind the three wins for the Chargers were against the Raiders, Texans and Browns.  They were life and death in the 4th quarter with all three teams.  They have a problem putting teams away because of their poor defense, and that's why they can't be laying 4.5 points here.  Not having Joey Bosa really hurts them defensively, and it looks as though WR Keenan Allen will sit out again, and WR Mike Williams is also questionable.

I love the spot for the Broncos, too.  They have extended rest to recover and get ready for this game after playing last Thursday, and now get an extra day even with this being Monday Night Football.  They have a lot of guys questionable on the injury report, so this break came at the right time.  It's also extra time for them to correct their mistakes on offense, and I fully expect one of their best efforts of the season Monday night.

The Broncos would be wise to utilize their running game more.  It has been the strength of their offense, and it is the weakness of this Chargers defense.  Wilson needs to swallow his pride and trust his teammates.  The Broncos have rushed for over 100 yards in four of five games this season.  They'll be up against a Chargers defense that ranks dead last (32nd) in yards per carry (5.8) allowed.

This is also a great matchup for Denver's defense.  The Chargers rely heavily on Justin Herbert to move the ball through the air.  Well, the Broncos rank 1st in the NFL in passing yards per game allowed at only 176.6 per game.  They are also 2nd in the NFL in allowing just 5.2 yards per pass attempt.

Plays on underdogs or PK (Denver) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games against an opponent that covered the spread in three of their last four games are 36-12 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This is a classic 'buy low' spot on the Broncos and a 'sell high' spot on the Chargers based on recent results.  This line should be much closer to PK, especially when you consider the Chargers have zero home-field advantage.  Bet the Broncos Monday.

20* Cowboys/Eagles NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Dallas +6

Cooper Rush is now 5-0 as a starter for the Cowboys.  He beat the Vikings on the road last year, which is no small feat.  He beat Joe Burrow and the Bengals in Week 2.  He beat the Giants on the road in Week 3.  He crushed the Commanders 25-10.  And last week, he led the 22-10 road win over the defending Super Bowl champion Rams as 5.5-point underdogs.  Nobody wants to admit it, but Rush isn't that big of a downgrade from Dak Prescott.

Fortunately for the Cowboys, they are loaded everywhere else, which makes it possible to continue to win games without Dak.  The Cowboys will have the best unit on the field, which is their defense.  They allow just 14.4 points per game, 311.4 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play.  They rank 3rd in scoring defense and 5th in yards per play allowed this season.

I have backed the Cowboys each of the last three weeks, and I'm not about to jump off the bandwagon now.  The betting public and the oddsmakers have not caught up with how good this team is, and that's the case again this week as they are catching 6 points against the Eagles.  This line should only be Philadelphia -3 according to my power rankings, so we are getting a ton of value.

A big reason I keep backing the Cowboys is their dominant defensive line.  Micah Parsons is quickly becoming one of the best defenders in the NFL.  The Cowboys are 2nd in the NFL in sacks averaging 4.0 per game with 20 total in five games.  Well, the Eagles have four starters injured on the offensive line.  All four may actually play, but they will have their hands full with this Dallas defensive line.

The Cowboys have gotten back to running the football, which is when they have been at their best over the past several seasons.  They rushed for 176 yards on the Giants and 163 yards on the Rams in two of their last three victories.  The weakness of the Eagles is defending the run.  They actually rank just 25th in the NFL in allowing 5.0 yards per carry this season.  The Cowboys can continue to move the ball on the ground with Zeke and Pollard, opening up play-action for Rush and making things easier on him.  He is making all the throws he needs to for this team to keep winning.

The Eagles are having a hard time putting teams away this season.  They let the Lions come back in a 3-point victory, and they let the Cardinals come back in another 3-point victory.  They tried to let the Vikings come back, but Kirk Cousins kept turning the ball over.  The Jaguars also had a chance to tie the game late in an 8-point loss.  Their only complete performance was against the Commanders in a 24-8 victory, who are probably the worst team in the NFL.  The Eagles are grossly overvalued right now due to their 5-0 start, so it's time to 'sell high' on them.

The Cowboys own the Eagles, going 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  They have won the last three meetings all by 20 points or more.  Dallas is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games.  The Cowboys are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 vs. NFC East opponents, including 8-0 ATS over the last two seasons.  Dallas is 11-1 ATS in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.

20* Bills/Chiefs AFC No-Brainer on Buffalo -2.5

The Buffalo Bills are 4-1 this season and should be 5-0.  Their lone loss came at Miami by 2 when they outgained the Dolphins by 285 total yards.  The Bills are the best team in the NFL this season when you look at the numbers.  They will go into Kansas City and come out with a win in a game they simply want more than the Chiefs after getting knocked out of the playoffs by them the past two seasons.

We saw the same thing happen last year.  After losing 24-38 to Kansas City in the playoffs in 2020-21, the Bills came back and won 38-20 last season in Kansas City.  Unfortunately, they did not get home-field advantage in the playoffs like they planned, and they lost 36-42 (OT) at Kansas City in the playoffs.  They believe they would have gone on to win the Super Bowl had they won that game.  So winning this game is essentially to getting home-field advantage this time around in 2022-23.

The Bills rank 1st in the NFL in total offense at 440.4 yards per game and 2nd in total defense at 260.4 yards per game, outgaining opponents by 180 yards per game, which is far and away the best mark in the league.  Buffalo is 1st in the NFL at 6.7 yards per play on offense, and 2nd in the NFL at 4.4 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.3 yards per play.  That is also far and away the best margin in the NFL this season.

You know this game means a lot to the Bills when they have been waiting to get some key players back from injury and they're 'all in' for this game now.  S Jordan Poyer, LB Tremaine Edmunds and CB Christian Benford are all listed without injury designations.  Poyer hasn't practiced since Week 2, Edmunds missed last week's game against the Steelers, and Benford is returning from a broken hand suffered in Week 3.  The Bills have been showing off their depth without some key guys this season, which is only going to help them in the long run.  It also makes it even more impressive the numbers they have put up to this point.

The Chiefs are 4-1 this season but have been a lot less impressive.  They had two good wins over the Cardinals and Bucs, but they probably should have lost to the Chargers in a 27-24 home win, were upset on the road by the terrible Colts, and last week survived a 30-29 thriller against the Raiders at home.  That game was on Monday Night Football, so they are on a short week now making this a terrible spot for them.  Meanwhile, the Bills were blowing out the Steelers 38-3 last week, so they are still very fresh for this game.

The Chiefs have some key injuries in the secondary with CB Fenton out, CB McDuffie questionable and S Cook out.  They already cannot stop the run, and now their secondary is in shambles, which is bad news facing this Bills offense.  The Chiefs have allowed at least 20 points in ever game this season and rank 24th in scoring defense at 25.0 points per game.  Conversely, the Bills have an elite defense, which is going to be the biggest difference in this game.  

I like that the Bills held Mark Andrews to 2 receptions for 15 yards against the Ravens a few weeks ago, and they are great about taking away an opposing team's best weapon.  They will focus in on stopping Travis Kelce, who had 4 touchdowns against the Raiders Monday night.  They will make Mahomes put trust in his other receivers, which he is still trying to form chemistry with this early in the season after losing Tyreke Hill.

Kansas City is 0-6 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Chiefs are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after scoring 30 points or more in two straight games.  The Bills are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The road team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  The Bills want this game more, are the better team in the more favorable spot, and that will show Sunday.  Take the Bills.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +10.5

I love the spot for the Carolina Panthers this week.  They fired head coach Matt Rhule after yet another loss to the 49ers on Sunday.  Teams in their first game with an interim head coach are 17-9 ATS since 2009.  They always seem to get a fresh start and come out with a big effort with their interim head coach in their first game with him.

Baker Mayfield is going to miss this game with an injury.  That's addition by subtraction.  This team has to be sick of his antics and knowing that he doesn't give them a chance to win.  In fact, Mayfield has the worst QBR of any QB through five games since Jamarcus Russell in 2005, which was the first season the QBR was invented.  QB Phillip Walker isn't the best backup, but the offense will be playing with a spring in its step with this change and it should benefit Walker getting a full week of practice to get ready.

This is more of a play against the Rams as it is a play on the Panthers.  I have successfully faded the Rams four times already this season as they are 1-4 ATS.  I did not play against them in their lone cover against the Cardinals.  So I'm 4-0 in Rams games this season, all four bets against them.  I have a great read on this team.  The Super Bowl hangover is a real thing, and the Rams are feeling the full effect of it.

It also doesn't help that the Rams cannot stay healthy.  Their offensive line is a mess due to injuries and losing a couple starters in the offseason, which is the biggest reason I have faded them the last two weeks against the 49ers and Cowboys, who both have dominant defensive lines.  Well, Carolina's strength is its defensive line, and this defense has played well as a whole this season.  

Now Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp and Tyler Hibgee have all popped up on the injury report as none of them practiced on Wednesday.  Matthew Stafford doesn't look right, and he certainly isn't comfortable playing behind this offensive line.  They cannot run the football, which is putting more pressure on Stafford to make plays.  They rank dead last in the NFL in averaging just 62.4 rushing yards per game.

The Rams simply continue to be overvalued week after week due to winning the Super Bowl last year.  Until the oddsmakers and betting public adjust, I'm going to keep fading this team.  They have no business being double-digit favorites even against the Panthers.  Carolina is 36-13 ATS in their last 49 games vs. poor offensive teams averaging 17 or fewer points per game.  The Rams are scoring just 16.0 points per game this season.

Plays against favorites (LA Rams) - a poor offensive team that scores 17 or fewer points per game are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Double-digit favorites this deep into the season that are .500 or worse are 33-52 ATS in their last 85 tries.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

20* Commanders/Bears NFC No-Brainer on Chicago ML +107

The Chicago Bears have played a brutal schedule and have made a good account of themselves in the early going.  They upset the 49ers and lost to the Packers, Giants and Vikings and were competitive in two of those three defeats.  They also beat Houston.  Now they get to take another step down in class here against a team that is on Houston's level in the Washington Commanders.

The Commanders are falling off the rails.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall since an opening home win over the Jaguars in comeback fashion.  They lost by 9 at Detroit, by 16 at home to Philadelphia, by 15 at Dallas and by 4 at home to Tennessee.  They have played the much easier schedule and have gotten through at 1-4.

The Commanders have had to rely on Carson Wentz too much because they cannot run the football.  And Wentz cannot be trusted as he is a turnover waiting to happen.  The Commanders rank 28th in the league rushing for just 89.0 yards per game.  Compare that to the Bears, who rank 5th in rushing at 157.4 yards per game, and it's easy to see why I'm on Chicago here.

There are expected to be 15 MPH winds inside Soldier Field in Chicago Thursday night.  That means it's going to be difficult to throw the football, and that will especially be the case for Wentz, who doesn't have the strongest arm.  That wind will lead to more mistakes by the Commanders, while a conservative, run-heavy approach for the Bears will be just what the doctor ordered.

The Bears are 2-0 SU & 1-0-1 ATS at home this season.  Chicago is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games following two or more consecutive road losses.  The Bears are also one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now with only six players on the injury report and almost none of them significant.  The Commanders have 18 players on the injury report and many significant, including Wentz, William Jackson, Logan Thomas, Johan Dotson and Chase Young with the latter four all out.

Plays on underdogs or PK (Chicago) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 46-12 (79.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Bears on the Money Line Thursday.

20* Raiders/Chiefs ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 51

This one is as simply as it gets.  When the Chiefs and Raiders get together, it's always a shootout.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 57, 55, 66 and 72 points in the last four meetings, respectively.  This total of 51 has been set too low, especially with both offenses coming in hot.

The Chiefs are coming off their second 40-point effort of the season when they beat the Bucs 41-31.  Scoring 41 on that Tampa Bay defense is no small feat.  They also scored 44 on the Cardinals back in Week 1.  It looks like Patrick Mahomes isn't missing Tyreke Hill one bit.  He'll stay hot against a Raiders defense that he has absolutely owns.

The Chiefs have scored at least 35 points in seven of their last eight meetings with the Raiders.  It will be more of the same here against a Raiders defense that is allowing 25.0 points per game and 5.8 yards per play this season, ranking 23rd in scoring defense and 21st in defensive yards per play.

The Raiders are loaded on offense and have scored at least 22 points in three consecutive games.  They just put up a season-high 32 points on a very good Broncos defense that ranks among the best in the NFL to this point.  They should also be able to keep pace with the Chiefs, who allowed 326 passing yards to the Chargers and 373 more to the Bucs.

The weather looks good in Kansas City Monday with temperatures in the 60's and only 7 MPH winds at game time.  The OVER is 19-5 in Chiefs last 24 games after allowing 350 or more passing yards last game.  Andy Reid is 9-1 OVER after allowing 350 or more passing yards last game as the coach of the Chiefs.  The OVER is 9-3 in Chiefs last 12 games overall.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Cowboys +6

Cooper Rush is now 4-0 as a starter for the Cowboys.  He beat the Vikings on the road last year, which is no small feat.  He beat Joe Burrow and the Bengals in Week 2.  He beat the Giants on the road in Week 3.  And last week he crushed the Commanders 25-10.  Nobody wants to admit it, but Rush isn't that big of a downgrade from Dak Prescott.

Fortunately for the Cowboys, they are loaded everywhere else, which makes it possible to continue to win games without Dak.  The Cowboys will have the best unit on the field, which is their defense.  They allow just 15.5 points per game, 308.5 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play.  They rank 3rd in scoring defense and 4th in yards per play allowed this season.

 Micah Parsons is quickly becoming one of the best defenders in the NFL.  The Cowboys are 2nd in the NFL in sacks.  You know who else is tied with them for 2nd in sacks?  The 49ers.  Well, I was on the 49ers against the Rams for many of the same reasons as I'm on the Cowboys this week.  Their defensive line is going to own this depleted Rams offensive line.

The 49ers held the Rams to 9 points on three field goals last week and made life miserable on Matthew Stafford.  The Cowboys will do the same.  The Rams lost two starting offensive linemen in the offseason.  Now they are down C Allen, G Bruss and G Shelton.  G Edwards is questionable for this one.  Stafford is getting a lot of grief for declining this season, but it has as much to do with the offensive line as anything.  Plus, he only has chemistry with Cooper Kupp and has yet to find one with Allen Robinson.  WR Van Jefferson is out, and gone are both Beckham Jr. and Woods.

There has definitely been a Super Bowl hangover effect for the Rams as well.  They are 1-3 ATS this season with their only dominant win coming 20-12 at Arizona.  But they own the Cardinals, and they are way down this season.  They lost 31-10 to Buffalo in the opener and 24-9 to San Francisco.  They barely escaped with a 31-27 win over Atlanta as a double-digit underdog.  They have no business being favored by nearly a touchdown over the Cowboys, who I think are the better team right now even with Rush at QB.  This line should be much closer to PK than -6.

The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Dallas is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games overall.  The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Los Angeles is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cowboys are 10-1 ATS in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Rams are on a short week and don't have much of a home-field advantage.  There may be more Cowboy fans here than Rams fans even.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia Eagles -5

The Philadelphia Eagles are the best team in the NFC this season and I don't think there's any debate.  They are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this season with elite numbers to this point.  They are loaded on both sides of the football and are taking care of the football, committing just two turnovers while forcing 10 thus far.

The Eagles are scoring 28.8 points per game, averaging 435.5 yards per game and putting up 6.1 yards per play.  They rank 4th in scoring offense, 2nd in total offense and 5th in yards per play.  They are allowing just 17.8 points per game, 277.3 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  They rank 9th in scoring defense, 3rd in total defense and 3rd in yards per play allowed.

Now they take on the Arizona Cardinals, who are very fortunate to be 2-2 when you consider they have played 13 bad quarters and only 3 good quarters.  They trailed 23-7 against the Raiders entering the 4th quarter before the refs gifted them an OT victory.  They trailed the Panthers 10-3 at halftime last week before coming back to win 26-16.

In the two games against teams on Philadelphia's level, the Cardinals were not even competitive.  They lost 44-21 to the Chiefs in Week 1 and 20-12 to the Rams in Week 3.  It won't go any better for them against the Eagles this week.  Kyler Murray is having to do too much on his own because of their lack of a rushing attack.  And he is missing key weapons on the outside including DeAndre Hopkins.

This Arizona defense cannot be trusted to get stops, either.  The Cardinals are allowing 25.8 points per game, 342.8 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  They rank 27th in the league in yards per play on defense, which is the most predictable stat for how good a defense really is.  To compare, the Eagles only allow 4.5 yards per play.

Arizona has zero home-field advantage.  In fact, the Cardinals are 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS in in their last seven home games.  Arizona is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games after outgaining its last opponent by 100 or more total yards.  Kliff Kingsbury is 8-18 ATS as home as the coach of Arizona.  Take the Eagles Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Falcons +8.5

The Atlanta Falcons have been the most underrated team in the NFL this season.  They are the only team that is 4-0 ATS this season.  They covered in a 26-27 home loss to the Saints as 6-point underdogs, covered in a 27-31 road loss to the Rams as 10.5-point dogs, covered in a 27-23 win at Seattle as 1-point dogs and covered in a 23-20 home win at Cleveland as 1-point dogs.

As you can see, all four games have been decided by one score.  I think that will be the case again here Sunday against the Tampa Bay Bucs with the Falcons once again catching too many points as 8.5-point road underdogs.  The Falcons have the offense to hang with the Bucs.  They are putting up 25.8 points per game and 5.9 yards per play, ranking 8th in scoring offense and 9th in offensive yards per play.

The Bucs have been held back by injury issues, and Tom Brady is distracted with the divorce proceedings.  This Tampa Bay offense has been woeful, averaging 20.5 points per game, 317.0 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play.  They rank 25th in total offense and 22nd in offensive yards per play.  They have a banged up offensive line and receiving corps, which has made it even more difficult on Brady.

After three dominant defensive efforts, the Bucs were exposed by the Chiefs last week.  They gave up 41 points and 417 total yards to Kansas City.  Most concerning is the 189 rushing yards they allowed to a Chiefs team not known for running the football.  That could spell disaster here as they take on an Atlanta offense that ranks 4th in rushing for 168.0 yards per game and 6th at 5.1 yards per rush.

The Falcons do have a suspect defense, no doubt, but they have the offense that can keep them in this game for four quarters.  They are feeling good right now and will be looking forward to testing themselves against the Bucs, who are in a terrible spot mentally right now with all the distractions and injuries.  These players are loving playing for Arthur Smith and playing the role of the underdog, while the Bucs are getting too much respect for what they've done in the past, and not the team they currently are.

Plays on road underdogs or PK (Atlanta) - a good offensive team scoring 24 or more points per game, after a win by 3 points or less are 92-47 (66.2%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.