|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|10-14-21||Bucs v. Eagles +7||28-22||Win||100||49 h 59 m||Show|
15* Bucs/Eagles NFC ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia +7
The Philadelphia Eagles have played a brutal schedule thus far of Atlanta, San Francisco, Dallas, Kansas City and Carolina. It's safe to say they are battle-tested and ready for this challenge against the Tampa Bay Bucs tonight.
The Eagles have put up tremendous numbers against that brutal schedule, and they are a grossly undervalued team right now. They are averaging 6.3 yards per play on offense and giving up only 5.2 yards per play on defense against teams that normally averaged 6.0 yards per play. So they are outgaining their opponents by 1.1 yards per play, which is one of the best numbers in the NFL.
The Bucs give up 5.9 yards per play against teams that normally averaged 5.7 yards per play, so they have a below-average defense this year. A big reason for that is they are missing several key players in the secondary. They are also without LB Lavonte David. Offensively, both Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski are questionable, and Tom Brady is battling an injured thumb.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Bucs off their 45-17 home win over the hapless Miami Dolphins last week. The Bucs haven't fared nearly as well on the road. They lost 24-34 to the Rams and barely escaped with a 19-17 win at New England in their two road games this season.
Plays against favorites (Tampa Bay) - with a great offense that average 385 or more yards per game, after gaining 450 or more yards per game in their last three games are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.
The Bucs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight Thursday games. Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a road favorite. The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six Thursday games. The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Bet the Eagles Thursday.
|10-11-21||Colts v. Ravens -7||Top||25-31||Loss||-100||130 h 48 m||Show|
20* Colts/Ravens ESPN No-Brainer on Baltimore -7
The Baltimore Ravens have found their groove since an opening loss to the Raiders. They have won three straight since including an upset victory over the Chiefs and a 23-7 road win at Denver. Now they will be playing just their 2nd home game of the season, and they are as healthy as they have been all year. They should get back to being the same old Ravens moving forward.
The Indianapolis Colts are a mess due to all their injuries. They are just 1-3 this season with their only win coming against a bad Miami Dolphins team playing with a backup QB last week. I think they are getting too much respect from oddsmakers because of that victory.
The Colts had previously lost their first three games to start the season. They lost 16-28 to the Seahawks, 24-27 to the Rams and 16-25 to the Titans. They were outgained in all three games, and this is probably going to be their stiffest test of the season on the road at the Ravens.
Baltimore has the numbers to match their 3-1 record. They outgained the Chiefs by 76 yards and had 481 yards of offense, they outgained the Lions by 102 yards and had 387 yards of offense, and they outgained the Broncos by 152 yards behind 406 yards of offense.
Frank Reich is 0-6 ATS vs. AFC North opponents as the coach of the Colts. Baltimore is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a losing record. They seem to just beat up on bad teams, and that should be the case here under the lights of Monday Night Football. Bet the Ravens Monday.
|10-10-21||Giants +7 v. Cowboys||20-44||Loss||-107||102 h 58 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Giants +7
The Dallas Cowboys are the only remaining team that is unbeaten ATS, going 4-0 ATS through their first four games. It's time to 'sell high' on the Cowboys now as 7-point home favorites over the division rival New York Giants.
While the Cowboys have an elite offense, their defense isn't nearly as good as it is getting credit for. They simply can't keep forcing turnovers at this rate. They have already forced 10 turnovers in four games. But they rank 30th in the NFL in giving up 6.4 yards per play this season.
The Giants have a sneaky good offense and a decent defense, giving up 5.9 yards per play. The Giants are 8th in the NFL at 6.2 yards per play, barely behind Dallas' 6.4 per play in 7th place. These teams are a lot closer than this line would indicate.
The Giants were coming off two losses to the Falcons and Washington by a combined 4 points before showing their resiliency last week, winning 27-21 at New Orleans. They had 485 total yards against a very good Saints defense, and Daniel Jones is playing the best football of his career this season. He is capable of matching the Cowboys score for score in this one.
The Giants are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games. New York is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 games as a road underdog. Joe Judge is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games vs. NFC opponents as the coach of New York. Roll with the Giants Sunday.
|10-10-21||Broncos v. Steelers -1||Top||19-27||Win||100||99 h 34 m||Show|
20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh Steelers -1
The Pittsburgh Steelers are in must-win mode now after a 1-3 start. Expect their best effort of the season when they host the Denver Broncos Sunday afternoon with their season essentially on the line. It should be enough to win and cover here as a short home favorite.
The Steelers were hampered by injuries in their losses to the Raiders and Bengals, who have both turned out to be very good teams. Their other loss came on the road against the Packers, which is expected. But remember, they upset the Bills in Week 1, so we know what they are capable of. Their four games have come against teams that are a combined 12-4 this season, so they have played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL. And they are getting healthier by the week.
It's time to fade the Denver Broncos, who are 3-1 this season while benefitting from playing one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. Their three wins came against the Giants, Jaguars and Jets. They got put in their place last week in a 7-23 home loss to the Ravens as Teddy Bridgewater was knocked out of the game with a concussion.
Bridgewater is questionable to return this week, and with this pick it doesn't really matter who starts for them, though getting Drew Lock again would be an added bonus. Injuries are really starting to pile up for the Broncos. They could be without as many as nine starters this week, who are either out, doubtful or questionable.
Mike Tomlin is 13-4 ATS after three or more consecutive ATS losses as the coach of the Steelers. It's time to 'buy low' on the Steelers this week as you will probably never get better value with them than you are here at home against the Broncos. Bet the Steelers Sunday.
|10-10-21||Packers v. Bengals +3||25-22||Push||0||99 h 34 m||Show|
15* Packers/Bengals Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cincinnati +3
The Cincinnati Bengals are greatly improved this season. They are off to a 3-1 start with their only loss coming 20-17 on the road to the Chicago Bears in a game in which they held the Bears to just 206 total yards and were -3 in turnovers.
The Bengals have beaten the Vikings, Steelers and Jaguars. Now they have extra time to prepare after beating the Jaguars last Thursday. Their defense is vastly improved this year, giving up just 18.8 points and 323.0 yards per game. And their offense is loaded with playmakers surrounding the underrated Joe Burrow, who continues to impress week after week.
The Packers are injury-ravaged right now, which is the biggest reason we are fading them. They are without LB Za'Darius Smith, T David Bakhtiari, and WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling. They have five other starters questionable in LB Preston Smith, CB Jaire Alexander, G Elgton Jenkins, LB Krys Barnes and CB Kevin King. Their issues at CB will particularly be a problem against Burrow and company.
The Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss. Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the Bengals Sunday.
|10-10-21||Eagles v. Panthers OVER 45||Top||21-18||Loss||-104||99 h 34 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Eagles/Panthers OVER 45
The Philadelphia Eagles are clearly an OVER team. They just combined for 62 points with the Dallas Cowboys and 72 points with the Kansas City Chiefs the last two weeks. They won't have any problem combining for 45-plus points with the Carolina Panthers this week.
The Eagles have an electric offense with Jalen Hurts and a ton of young skill talent. They are averaging 397.5 yards per game. But their defense has some significant injuries, and as a result they are giving up 26.5 PPG. This is the worst defense the Eagles have had in years.
The Panthers are coming alive in Joe Brady's offense in his second season as coordinator. They are averaging 387.5 yards per game this season behind the improved play of Sam Darnold, who already has five rushing touchdowns. He is completing 67.8% of his passes and averaging 8 yards per attempt.
Carolina's defense isn't as good as the season-long numbers would suggest. They played three of the worst offenses in the NFL to start the season in the Jets, Saints and Texans. But they met their match last week in a 28-36 loss to the Cowboys in a game that saw 64 combined points.
The OVER is 21-9 in Eagles last 30 games as road underdogs. The OVER is 33-16 in Eagles last 49 road games overall. The OVER is 34-17 in Panthers last 51 games after a game where 60 or more points were scored. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|10-10-21||Saints v. Washington Football Team +2||33-22||Loss||-103||99 h 33 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Washington +2
The New Orleans Saints are way overrated this season. They should not be road favorites over the Washington Football Team Sunday. This is a game I expect Washington to win outright, but we'll take the +2 for some insurance.
New Orleans is averaging just 276.8 yards per game on offense and giving up 349.3 yards per game on defense. They are getting outgained by nearly 75 yards per game. And it's not like they have played that difficult of a schedule. They can't figure out who their quarterback is as they are dealing with two below-average guys in Winston and Hill, and they have so many injuries right now on both sides of the ball.
Washington gutted out a 34-30 win in Atlanta last week despite missing two extra points and a two-point conversion chasing those two missed extra points. That's the type of win that will bring this team together, and Taylor Heineke is showing he's not a downgrade at all at quarterback. He is completing 69.5% of his passes with an 8-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 87 yards and a score as a dual-threat.
Ron Rivera is 49-21 ATS after playing his last game on the road as a head coach. Rivera is 10-2 ATS vs. teams who commit 0.75 or fewer turnovers per game as a head coach. The Football Team is 8-1 in their last nine games after gaining more than 350 yards in their previous game. The Football Team is 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win. The Football Team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Roll with Washington Sunday.
|10-07-21||Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 54.5||Top||26-17||Win||100||34 h 56 m||Show|
20* Rams/Seahawks NFC West Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 54.5
The Los Angeles Rams have played two straight high-powered offenses in the Tampa Bay Bucs and Arizona Cardinals. Both games wen over the total, and that has this total against the Seattle Seahawks inflated. There's definitely value in this UNDER Thursday night.
Seattle has also played three straight very good offenses in the Titans, Vikings and 49ers. That also has this total inflated as both of these teams have better defenses than the numbers would show to this point. And Seattle plays at a slow pace, averaging just 50 players per game. The Rams only average 58 plays per game on offense.
Division games are always played closer to the vest. Teams are more familiar with one another playing each other twice a season. They always tend to be lower-scoring. That has been the case in this series, too.
The Rams and Seahawks have combined for 50 or fewer points in four consecutive meetings. They combined for 50, 29, 39 and 40 points in each of the last four meetings, respectively. That's an average of just 39.5 combined points per game, which is 15 points less than this 54.5-point total.
The UNDER is 20-7 in Rams last 27 games as favorites. The UNDER is 10-3 in Seahawks last 13 games overall. Seattle is 6-0 UNDER vs. teams that allow 375 or more yards per game over the last three seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|10-04-21||Raiders +3.5 v. Chargers||Top||14-28||Loss||-115||126 h 26 m||Show|
20* Raiders/Chargers ESPN No-Brainer on Las Vegas +3.5
The Las Vegas Raiders are 3-0 this season and have played three very good teams in the Ravens, Steelers and Dolphins. Those three teams all have great defenses, and this Oakland offense has lit up the scoreboard and the numbers against all three.
The Raiders are scoring 30.0 points per game this season and averaging 471.0 yards per game. Derek Carr has already thrown for 1,203 yards in three games. The Raiders definitely deserved to win all three games as they outgained the Ravens by 85 yards, the Steelers by 94 yards and the Dolphins by 167 yards.
The Chargers are 2-1 this season despite getting outgained in two games. They were outgained by 85 yards by the Chiefs last week. And because they pulled the upset win over such a big rival and defending Super Bowl champ, this is actually a letdown spot for the Chargers. We saw the Ravens nearly lose to the Lions last week after upsetting the Chiefs the week before.
With this game being played in Los Angeles there's going to be a ton of Raiders fans there. It might actually be a home-field advantage for them. So this line makes no sense with the Chargers being 3.5-point favorites considering these are basically even teams. There is value with the Raiders this week because of it.
Las Vegas is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog. The Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their last four Monday games. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Raiders are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 trips to Los Angeles. The underdog is 18-6 ATS in the last 24 meetings. Bet the Raiders Monday.
|10-03-21||Bucs v. Patriots +7||Top||19-17||Win||100||103 h 32 m||Show|
20* Bucs/Patriots NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New England +7
The betting public is all over the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs in this game. They don't believe Tom Brady is going to lose to his former team. But that is where the point spread is the great equalizer, and it's time to 'sell high' on the Bucs here as 7-point road favorites against the Patriots.
The Bucs are fortunate to be 2-1 this season. They overcame four turnovers in the opener and needed a last-second field goal to beat the Cowboys 31-29, failing to cover as 10-point favorites. They only held a 3-point lead over the Falcons at home in the 2nd half before getting two straight pick-6's that turned the game. And last week they lost outright 24-34 at the Rams as 1-point favorites.
The defending Super Bowl champion is almost always overvalued, and that was the case with the Chiefs last year. That's the case with the Bucs this year, especially in this spot with Brady returning to face his former team. While Brady and the offense are humming, the defense has been a problem in giving up 29.3 points and 402.0 yards per game this season. They have been awful against the pass, allowing 338 passing yards per game.
It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Patriots, who are coming off an upset home loss to the New Orleans Saints last week. But the Patriots gave that game away by being -3 in turnovers. It was much closer than the final score, and the Patriots actually outgained the Saints by 48 yards in that contest.
The best unit on the field might be the Patriots defense. They are giving up just 17.0 points per game and 282.3 yards per game this season. Mac Jones has been up against three very good defenses, and this is actually a step down in class from what he has faced thus far in the Dolphins, Saints and Jets. He is primed for his best game of the season.
Tampa Bay is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games after allowing 275 or more passing yards in three straight games. New England is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 games as a home underdog. The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the Patriots Sunday.
|10-03-21||Browns v. Vikings +2||Top||14-7||Loss||-104||95 h 12 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Vikings +2
The Minnesota Vikings could easily be 3-0 against a very tough schedule thus far. But since they are 1-2 they are undervalued right now. They lost in OT in Week 1 at Cincinnati after fumbling when they were in field goal range for the game-winning kick. They missed an extra point and the potential game-winning 37-yard field goal at Arizona in a 1-point loss in Week 2.
But last week they showed some resiliency and beat the Seahawks handily 30-17 in their first home game of the season. They are a much better home team than a road team under Mike Zimmer through the years. And their offense is hitting on all cylinders this season.
The Vikings are 8th in scoring offense at 29.0 points per game and 3rd in total offense at 425 yards pre game. They didn't miss Dalvin Cook one bit last week as backup Alexander Mattison accounted for 171 yards from scrimmage. But there's a good chance Cook returns this week as he returned to practice.
After losing to the Chiefs on the road in Week 1, the Browns have beaten two of the worst teams in the NFL at home the last two weeks in the Texans and Bears. They basically beat two rookie quarterbacks in those two games as Davis Mills replaced an injured Tyrod Taylor early for the Texans and Justin Fields made his first career start for the Bears.
Now they take a big step up in class here against a motivated Vikings team that wants to get back to .500 on the season. Kirk Cousins is playing some of the best football of his career. Cleveland is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after a win by more than 14 points. The Browns are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as road favorites. The Vikings are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games as home underdogs. Bet the Vikings Sunday.
|10-03-21||Washington Football Team -115 v. Falcons||34-30||Win||100||95 h 11 m||Show|
15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington ML -115
The Washington Football Team has been a disappointment thus far in 2021. They have gone 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS through three games. It's time to 'buy low' on them, especially considering their two losses came to two of the best teams in the NFL in the Bills and Chargers.
Now Washington takes a big step down in class here against the Atlanta Falcons. This is a Falcons team that was terrible in the preseason and terrible in their first two games, losing 32-6 to the Eagles at home and 48-25 to the Bucs on the road.
But now the Falcons are getting some respect from the books after upsetting the Giants 17-14 on the road last week. That win comes with an asterisk as the Giants lost two of their top receivers during the game and were hamstrung on offense.
Washington has the better defense here, and I wouldn't be surprised if they have the better offense as Matt Ryan has looked washed this season. But I fully expect a rally the troops type of effort from Washington based on comments made by Ron Rivera after the loss to the Bills.
Plays on any teams (Washington) - a good offensive team (5.4 to 5.8 YPP) against a team with a terrible defense that allows at least 5.8 YPP, after being outgained by 100 or more yards last game are 31-6 (83.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Atlanta is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games vs. teams who force 0.75 turnovers or fewer per game on the season. Rivera is 26-9 ATS off a road loss as a head coach. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Roll with Washington Sunday.
|09-30-21||Jaguars v. Bengals OVER 45.5||Top||21-24||Loss||-105||31 h 31 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Bengals OVER 45.5
Prime time OVERS have been money makers the last couple seasons. And this game sets up to be an OVER game tonight with these two teams in the Jaguars and Bengals. Both have suspect defenses.
The Jaguars have really been poor defensively. They rank 28th in scoring defense at 30.3 points per game and 29th in total defense at 418 yards per game. And they've only played one good offense in the Cardinals, who lite them up for 31 points last week. The other two teams were the Broncos and Texans.
The Cincinnati Bengals have good defensive numbers thus far and may be improved on that side of the ball, but they have played two poor offenses in the Bears and Steelers. They did give up 24 points and 403 total yards to the best offense they have faced in the Vikings.
The Jaguars have been able to move the football with 395 yards against the Texans and 361 yards against the Cardinals. But they have killed themselves with turnovers, committing 10 of them already in three games. That can also help the OVER by setting up easy scores for the Bengals.
Cincinnati does have an elite offense with great skill players. They have played three tough defenses and have fared well against the Vikings, Bears and Steelers. This is a big step down in class for them, and Joe Burrow is primed for his best game of the season. I'm expecting the Bengals to score 30-plus to carry the load on this OVER.
Cincinnati is 6-0 OVER in home games with a total of 45.5 or higher over the last three seasons. We are seeing 56.3 combined points per game in this spot. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
|09-27-21||Eagles +4 v. Cowboys||Top||21-41||Loss||-106||143 h 32 m||Show|
20* Eagles/Cowboys ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia +4
It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Dallas Cowboys this week. They took advantage of four Tampa Bay turnovers in Week 1 and covered in a 29-31 loss as 9-point underdogs. Then last week they went on the road and upset the Chargers 20-17 as 3-point dogs on a last-second 56-yard field goal by Greg Zurlein.
So now the Cowboys go from being dogs in both of those games and substantial dogs at that to 4-point home favorites here against the Philadelphia Eagles. This is a big overreaction as this game should be lined closer to a pick 'em. There's a ton of value on the Eagles this week for a number of different reasons.
The Cowboys have one of the worst defenses in the NFL again this year after having one of the worst last year. They are giving up 419.5 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play. Compare that to Philadelphia, which is giving up just 283 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play this season, and you can see why I'm siding with the Eagles. They just held the 49ers to 17 points and 306 total yards last week after giving up just 6 points and 260 total yards to the Falcons in Week 1.
The Eagles did struggle offensively last week against a very good 49ers defense, but they had their chances in that game and still outgained them with 328 total yards. The Eagles are averaging 6.2 yards per play this season, which isn't far behind the Cowboys, who are averaging 6.4 yards per play.
And the injury situation is worse for the Cowboys than it is for the Eagles. They are without T La'el Collins, WR Michael Gallup and DE Demarcus Lawrence. They also have seven players questionable heading into this game, including WR Amari Cooper. Jalen Hurts will make enough players to keep the Eagles in this game, and there's no question I trust Philadelphia's defense to get more stops than Dallas in this one.
Plays against home favorites (Dallas) - a poor team from last season that was outscored by 4.0 points per game or more, versus division opponents are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS since 1993. The Cowboys are 22-47 ATS in their last 69 games as home favorites. Dallas is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite overall. Roll with the Eagles Monday.
|09-26-21||Packers v. 49ers OVER 49||Top||30-28||Win||100||121 h 35 m||Show|
20* Packers/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 49
The Green Bay Packers gave up 55 combined points to the Saints and Lions the first two weeks. Those aren't two particularly good offenses. And the Packers continue to struggle stopping the run this year, which has always been a problem for them. They rank 26th in the NFL in giving up 4.8 yards per carry.
The 49ers have always been able to run the ball down Green Bay's throats in recent meetings. They will be able to do whatever they want offensively in this one. The 49ers have scored 29.0 points per game in their first two games with a nice balance of run and pass. They'll be up against a 49ers defense that is missing two of its best players in LB Dre Greenlaw and CB Jason Verrett.
The weakness of the entire 49ers team is their secondary, which is bad news going up against a guy like Aaron Rodgers. He got right last week against the Lions in leading the Packers to 35 points and four touchdown passes. He looked like his old self and should build on that this week by matching the 49ers score for score.
These teams met in the 2019-20 playoffs and combined for 57 points in a 37-20 San Francisco victory. Then last year they combined for 51 points in a 34-17 victory by the Packers that saw the 49ers missing several key players on offense due to injuries, including QB Jimmy G. I think they have no problem topping 49 points for a third straight meeting here.
The OVER is 19-10 in Kyle Shanahan's 29 games as a favorite as the coach of San Francisco. The OVER is 4-0 in Packers last four games as underdogs. The OVER is 5-1 in Packers last six games overall. The OVER is 6-0 in Packers last six Week 3 games. The OVER is 36-17 in Packers last 53 September games. The OVER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday night.
|09-26-21||Bucs v. Rams +1||Top||24-34||Win||100||115 h 43 m||Show|
20* Bucs/Rams NFC No-Brainer on Los Angeles +1
No team has impressed me more than the Los Angeles Rams through two games. After beating the Bears 34-14 at home in Week 1, they went on the road in Week 2 and beat the Colts 27-24. That was even after handing the Colts seven free points on special teams when they snapped the ball into the up man and the Colts recovered it in the end zone.
The Rams are averaging 6.9 yards per play on offense and giving up just 5.0 yards per play on defense, outgaining their opponents by 1.9 yards per play. They have the same elite defense that they've had in years' past, and now they finally have a QB in Matthew Stafford fit for running Sean McVay's offense. Stafford is completing 69.6% of his passes with a 5-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging a ridiculous 10.7 yards per attempt.
The Bucs are overhyped after their 2-0 start that has seen them score 31 points against the Cowboys and 48 more against the Falcons. But they needed a last-second field goal to beat the Cowboys, and they got 14 points handed to them by the Falcons on tipped balls that resulted in pick-6's. That was a 28-25 game in the 4th quarter before the Bucs scored three touchdowns without even blinking to put it away. And the Falcons are terrible.
The Bucs put up gaudy offensive numbers against two of the worst defenses in the NFL. Now they take a big step up in class here against the Rams, who led the NFL in total defense last year. And we remember what the Rams did to them last year. They went on the road at Tampa Bay and won 27-24 while limiting the Bucs to just 251 total yards.
Tom Brady had one of his worst games of the season, completing 26-of-48 passes for 216 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Even Jared Goff threw for 376 yards and three touchdowns on this Tampa Bay defense, so you can imagine what Stafford is going to do. That's especially the case with all of the injuries the Bucs have in the secondary that has seen them give up 342 passing yards per game through two games thus far.
The Rams are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS loss. Los Angeles is 22-8-1 ATS in its last 31 vs. NFC opponents. The Rams are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Bucs. Roll with the Rams Sunday.
|09-26-21||Saints v. Patriots -2.5||Top||28-13||Loss||-118||111 h 30 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New England Patriots -2.5
The New Orleans Saints have been on the road for a month due to the hurricane. It has been a terrible travel situation for them and they have to be getting fatigued both mentally and physically. I think we saw some of that last week in their 26-7 loss to Carolina. And I don't think it's going to get much better for them this week on the road at New England.
After taking advantage of a bad spot for the Packers, who were rusty without Aaron Rodgers most of training camp in a 38-3 win by the Saints, New Orleans came back down to reality last week. Carolina beat them up and down the field. They held the Saints to just 128 total yards in the first meaningful road start for Jameis Winston. He want 11-of-22 for 111 yards with two interceptions in defeat. He was also sacked four times.
I don't think it was any coincidence that the offense struggled considering they were missing as many as six offensive coaches due to COVID. Those guys aren't likely to be back this week. And they are still without WR's Malcolm Thomas and Tre'quan Smith as well as starting C Erik McCoy. Defensively, the Saints are missing LB Kwon Alexander, DE Marcus Davenport and could be without their top CB in Marshon Lattimore again this week.
After giving the game away with a fumble at the goal line in a 16-17 home loss to the Dolphins in Week 1, the Patriots responded with an emphatic 25-6 beat down of the New York Jets on the road in Week 2. That's the same Jets team that only lost by 5 to the Panthers the previous week, a Panthers team that beat the Saints by 19. The Patriots forced four interceptions from Zach Wilson and will likely force a couple more from Winston this week.
The Patriots have been able to run the ball for over 100 yards each of their first two games, and Mac Jones isn't making mistakes. Jones is completing 73.9% of his passes with one touchdown and zero interceptions this season and easily looks like the best of the rookie quarterbacks through two weeks.
This Patriots defense looks much improved this year, too. They got back a handful of players that opted out last year and it has made a big difference. New England is only giving up 11.5 points per game and 297.5 yards per game through two games. They rank 3rd in scoring defense and 5th in total defense.
Bill Belichick is 81-45 ATS off a division game as the coach of the Patriots. Belichick is 23-9 ATS after allowing 6 points or less as the coach of New England. The Patriots are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a win by more than 14 points. Take the Patriots Sunday.
|09-26-21||Chargers +6.5 v. Chiefs||30-24||Win||100||111 h 18 m||Show|
15* Chargers/Chiefs AFC West ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +6.5
I've been extremely impressed with the Los Angeles Chargers through two weeks. They really should be 2-0. They dominated more than the final score showed in their 20-16 victory at Washington in Week 1. They racked up 424 total yards on a good Washington defense and outgained them by 165 yards.
Last week, the refs cost them the game against the Cowboys in a 17-20 loss on a 56-yard field goal at the buzzer by Greg Zurlein. They had 408 more yards against the Cowboys, and Justin Herbert is quickly becoming one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. He is completing 70.5% of his passes for 675 yards and averaging 7.7 yards per attempt this season.
The Kansas City Chiefs were fortunate to come back from a 9-point deficit late to beat the Browns 33-29 in Week 1. Then last week they stumbled and lost 35-36 to the Baltimore Ravens despite getting a pick-six in that contest. Their defense just cannot be trusted. They rank last in the NFL in total defense at 469 yards per game and last in yards per play (7.6) allowed.
Dating back to last season, the Chiefs are now just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games overall. They just don't beat teams by more than one score because of their dreadful defense, so getting nearly a full touchdown here with the Chargers is an excellent value. They'll never be out of this game with Herbert. And the Chargers have the much better defense. Holding Washington to 16 points and Dallas to 20 is no small feat.
Last year, the Chargers only lost 20-23 at home as 9-point underdogs to the Chiefs. They had 479 total yards in that defeat. They came back and won 38-21 in Week 17 on the road and had 416 more yards. I would be shocked if the Chiefs won by a touchdown or more here. And we're quickly seeing that the Super Bowl loser hangover is real with the Chiefs off to an 0-2 ATS start. Yet they keep getting priced like they are the best team in the NFL week after week, which just isn't the case with their leaky defense..
Plays on road underdogs or PK (LA Chargers) - an excellent passing team from last season that averaged 275 or more passing yards per game, after allowing 7 or more passing yards per attempt last game are 32-7 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Chargers are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 road games off an upset loss as a home favorite. Los Angeles is 35-14-4 ATS in its last 53 games as a road underdog. The Chargers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Kansas City. Take the Chargers Sunday.
|09-26-21||Washington Football Team +9.5 v. Bills||21-43||Loss||-118||111 h 18 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington +9.5
Washington hasn't lost a game by more than 8 points in any of their last 14 games dating back to last season. That makes for a 14-0 system backing Washington pertaining to this 9.5-point spread against the Bills. This team has been a money-making machine as an underdog.
I like the spot for Washington getting extra time to prepare after beating the Giants on Thursday last week. Taylor Heinicke was excellent against the Giants. He threw for 336 yards and two touchdowns with one interception. He led the game-winning drive in the final couple minutes. And he should make even more improvements this week with extra practice time to prepare to be the starter.
Washington's defense has too much talent to play as poorly as it has to this point. Ron Rivera called out his defense after that win and they should play with a chip on their shoulder this week. And it's actually a 'buy low' spot on Washington after failing to cover the spread in each of their first two games despite going 1-1 SU.
This is a great time to 'sell high' on Buffalo off its 35-0 win at Miami last week. The Bills were fortunate that Tua Tagovailoa got hurt in that game and they got to face backup Jacoby Brissett. And the Bills just simply own the Dolphins, so it wasn't a surprise. Remember, the Bills were upset at home by the Steelers in Week 1. And look how bad the Steelers played last week in an upset loss to the Raiders.
Josh Allen has yet to get going. He is completing just 56% of his passes and averaging 5.3 yards per attempt. Washington's defense is good enough to keep him in check. Buffalo is 14-29 ATS in its last 43 games off a division win by more than 10 points. Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog. Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last five games off a win. Bet Washington Sunday.
|09-23-21||Panthers -7.5 v. Texans||24-9||Win||100||47 h 37 m||Show|
15* Panthers/Texans Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Carolina -7.5
The Carolina Panthers have been as impressive as anyone through two games this season. They are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS with a 19-14 win over the Jets as 3.5-point favorites and a 26-7 upset win over the Saints as 3-point underdogs.
That game against the Jets was misleading as the Panthers got off to a 16-0 lead before taking their foot off the gas. They outgained the Jets by 129 yards. The New Orleans win was as dominant as it gets as they held the Saints to just 128 total yards and outgained them by 255 yards.
This Carolina defense is one of the best in the NFL in giving up just 10.5 points and 190.0 yards per game. Now they get to go up against a rookie quarterback in Davis Mills of Houston after Tyrod Taylor got hurt against the Browns last week. The Texans dominated the Jaguars with Taylor and were hanging tough against the Browns with him, but then it went south with Mills in their 21-31 loss.
Mills went just 8-of-18 for 102 yards with one touchdown and one interception against the Browns with a 10.1 QBR. Now he is on a short week and will only get in basically one or two practices. This is a terrible spot for the Texans because of their QB situation, and I look for this dominant Panthers defensive line to get after Mills and make life difficult for him for four quarters.
This Carolina offense is humming now with Joe Brady as their offensive coordinator, Sam Darnold at quarterback and a healthy Christian McCaffrey back at running back. McCaffrey makes all the difference for this team. He has already rushed for 170 yards and caught 14 balls for 154 yards through two games. Darnold is completing 68.5% of his passes and averaging 8.0 yards per attempt.
They should feast on a Houston defense that is allowing 26.0 points per game, 475 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. Even the Jaguars had nearly 400 yards against them, and the Browns completed 19 of 21 passes against them while also rushing for 156 yards on them. Mills and the offense can't be trusted, and neither can this defense.
The Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games after going under the total in their previous game. Houston is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a road loss. The Texans are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games after playing their last game on the road. Carolina is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games. This is simply a terrible spot for the Texans. Take the Panthers Thursday.
|09-20-21||Lions v. Packers OVER 48||Top||17-35||Win||100||142 h 19 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lions/Packers OVER 48
This game has shootout written all over it Monday night. The Detroit Lions showed they are going to be an 'over' team in Week 1. They allowed 41 points and a whopping 8.0 yards per play against the San Francisco 49ers. But they didn't quit, scoring 33 points on their own after a big 4th quarter behind Jared Goff.
The Lions are going to have to play in shootouts all season because of their leaky defense. And things just got worse for them when they lost starting CB Jeffrey Okudah to a season-ending Achilles injury last season. Aaron Rodgers should have a field day against this Detroit defense.
The Packers gave up 38 points to the Saints in Week 1. That's a Saints team that is starting Jameis Winston and without their best receiver in Michael Thomas. That was a very bad showing for the Packers defensively. It was also a poor showing offensively, but I have no doubt they will get it turned around in Week 2. There was clearly going to be some rust for them on offense after Aaron Rodgers sat out most of training camp. And that was a good Saints defense. This will be a much easier test for Rodgers and company this week.
Both meetings between the Lions and Packers were shootouts last year. The Packers won 42-21 at home for 63 combined points. Green Bay also won 31-24 on the road for 55 combined points. I think we are getting a discount on this 48-point total here Monday night.
The OVER is 7-1 in Lions last eight games following a loss. The OVER is 35-17 in Packers last 52 September games. The OVER is 5-1 in Packers last six vs. NFC North opponents. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.
|09-19-21||Saints v. Panthers +4||Top||7-26||Win||100||111 h 5 m||Show|
25* NFC South GAME OF THE YEAR on Carolina Panthers +4
Talk about an overreaction. The betting public loved seeing what the Saints did last week to the big bad Green Bay Packers. They beat them 38-3 in an upset. But the Packers had chemistry and injury issues coming into the season due to Aaron Rodgers sitting out training camp. It was more bad Packers than it was good Saints, especially with the Packers giving the game away with three turnovers.
The lookahead line on this game was a pick 'em. Now the Saints are 4-point favorites, a 4-point adjustment. This despite the Panthers winning and covering in a 19-14 win over the Jets, doing what they were supposed to do. And the Panthers led that game 16-0 so it was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.
Sam Darnold was solid in his first start with the Panthers, and he should be even sharper in his second start under offensive genius Joe Brady. Darnold went 24-of-35 passing for 279 yards and a touchdown without an interception against the Jets. Having Christian McCaffrey back healthy makes all the difference for this team. He rushed for 98 yards on 21 carries, while also catching nine balls for 89 yards.
Speaking of injuries, the Saints are far from healthy. They are going to be without two of their best defensive players in CB Marshon Lattimore and DE Marcus Davenport. They are already without their best receiver in Michael Thomas., plus fellow receiver Tre'quan Smith is out as well. Starting C Erik McCoy went out last week and will miss this game, and this Saints offensive line will be up against an underrated Panthers defensive line that had 17 QB hurries last week. Jameis Winston just doesn't have many weapons right now, and he still needs to prove to me that he can be trusted to not turn the ball over.
Making matters worse is that the Saints have had eight members of the organization test positive for COVID. The total includes six offensive coaches, one player and a nutritionist. There will definitely be chemistry issues on the offensive side for the Saints, which is another factor working against Winston.
Sean Payton is 5-13 ATS in road games in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of the Saints. They are getting outscored by 2.8 points per game in this spot. New Orleans is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. Carolina is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog. The underdog is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Take the Panthers Sunday.
|09-19-21||Bengals +3 v. Bears||17-20||Push||0||111 h 5 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Cincinnati Bengals +3
The Cincinnati Bengals were very competitive before Joe Burrow went down with an injury last year. His 264 completions were the most ever by an NFL QB through their first 10 career games. His five 300-yard passing games tied a Bengals season-season record. He became the first rookie to throw for 300 yards in three consecutive games.
Burrow has returned from his knee injury and actually got to play a drive in the preseason. Reports coming out of camp are that his arm is stronger than it was before and he is fully recovered. Burrow has a plethora of weapons now in WR's Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Ja'Marr Chase to go along with RB Joe Mixon. But the key is the upgrades on the offensive line, where the Bengals didn't allow a single sack in three preseason games.
I cashed in the Bengals last week as +3.5 home dogs to the Minnesota Vikings, and I'm back on them again this week as 3-point road dogs to the Chicago Bears. The Bengals led that game 21-7 in what was a bigger blowout than the final score showed. Burrow looked to be in midseason form, completing 20-of-27 passes for 261 yards and two touchdowns. Mixon rushed for 127 yards and a score, and Chase went over 100 yards receiving in his first game in the NFL.
This is an improved front seven defensively for the Bengals as they held Dalvin Cook to 61 yards on 20 carries. They held the Vikings to just 3.0 yards per rush. That's important here because the Bears are going to be trying to run the ball, which is the only thing they did well last week against the Rams in rushing for 134 yards on 26 carries. But that's where the bright spots ended for the Bears.
They averaged just 4.7 yards per play compared to 7.7 yards per play for the Rams, getting outgained by 3.0 yards per play in their 34-14 loss. Andy Dalton was terrible and refused to try and stretch the field. He averaged just 4.4 yards per pass attempt, throwing for 188 yards on 40 attempts. More alarming may be this overrated Bears defense, which gave up 11.6 yards per pass attempt to Matthew Stafford. Burrow is going to have a field day against this defense, too.
The Bears are without LB Danny Trevathan, RB Tarik Cohen and NT Eddie Goldman. They could also be without T Jason Peters, who got hurt last week. There is just turmoil surrounding this team at the QB position with whether or not Andy Dalton should be the starter, and I just don't trust them right now.
Plays against favorites (Chicago) - after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 96-49 (66.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bengals are 36-17-2 ATS in their last 55 September games. The Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as home favorites. The underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Roll with the Bengals Sunday.
|09-19-21||Rams -3.5 v. Colts||Top||27-24||Loss||-110||111 h 5 m||Show|
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Rams -3.5
The Los Angeles Rams were as impressive as anyone in Week 1. And they're a team I trust to carry it over into Week 2. They beat the Bears 34-14 at home. Matthew Stafford went 20-of-26 passing for 321 yards and three touchdowns without a turnover in his first start with the Rams.
This offense is going to be scary with how big of an upgrade he is over Jared Goff. The Rams averaged 7.7 yards per play on offense and held Chicago to 4.7 yards per play on defense, outgaining them by 3.0 yards per play. They had the top-ranked defense in the NFL last season and it will be dominant again this season.
The Colts are in a world of hurt right now. They lost their opener 28-16 at home to the Seahawks. They got a garbage time TD with two minutes left to make it look closer than it was. They managed just 16 points in Carson Wentz's debut against a bad Seattle defense. The Seahawks averaged 7.2 yards per play while the Colts managed just 4.7 yards per play, getting outgained by 2.5 yards per play.
Wentz has missed most of training camp and is rusty. Not helping matters is the cluster injuries along the offensive line and at receiver. They just lost tackle Eric Fisher to an Achilles injury last week. They are without their best receiver in T.Y. Hilton. This offense is a mess right now, and there are significant injuries on defense as well. This team just can't be trusted early in the season until they show me something.
This is arguably the best team in the NFC West in the Rams in a division that went 4-0 last week with four blowout victories up against the worst division in the NFL in the AFC South that went 1-3 last week. And the one win was the Texans over the Jaguars in a divisional matchup, so they were guaranteed to have at least one victory.
The Colts are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as home underdogs. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Sean McVey is 8-1 ATS in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of the Rams, and they are outscoring opponents by 16.2 points per game in this spot. This might be the public and square side, but it really will be as as easy as it looks in my opinion. Bet the Rams Sunday.
|09-16-21||Giants v. Washington Football Team -3||Top||29-30||Loss||-120||46 h 24 m||Show|
20* Giants/Washington NFC East No-Brainer on Washington -3
The Washington Football Team was a 5.5-point favorite on the lookahead line last week coming into this game. Now they are only 3-point favorites, so there's value here based off of that and a couple other reasons.
The big reason for the move was the loss of Ryan Fitzpatrick to injury early in their 20-16 loss to the Chargers last week. But Washington played well with Taylor Heinicke, who went 11-of-15 for 122 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for 17 yards on three carries. I don't think he is that much of a downgrade, at least not as much as it is being made out to be.
Washington was an Antonio Gibson fumble as his own 4-yard line away from winning that game against the Chargers despite getting outgained badly. Washington's defense, which is one of the best in the NFL, held the Chargers to just 20 points and 5.4 yards per play. Washington averaged 5.3 yards per play to compare.
The Giants lost 27-13 at home to the Broncos as 3-point underdogs in their opener. Their offensive line, which is one of the worst in the NFL, was atrocious. They managed just 60 rushing yards on 20 carries and 3.0 yards per carry. Defensively, they gave up 420 total yards and 165 yards and 5.9 per carry on the ground, so the defensive front seven is a problem too.
That's where this game will be won. Washington has the best defensive line in the NFL and will dominate this Giants offensive line, giving Daniel Jones all kinds of issues. Jones is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. Washington will be able to run the ball on this weak New York defense just as the Broncos did, which will take some pressure off of Heinicke.
Washington wants revenge after losing both meetings with the Giants by a combined 4 points last season. But they shouldn't have lost either game. They outgained New York 337 to 240 in their 20-19 road loss. They came back and outgained the Giants 402 to 350 in their 20-23 home loss. It's revenge time here Thursday night on a short week, which always favors the home team. Bet Washington Thursday.
|09-13-21||Ravens v. Raiders +4||Top||27-33||Win||100||91 h 40 m||Show|
20* Ravens/Raiders ESPN No-Brainer on Las Vegas +4
The Las Vegas Raiders went 8-8 last season and nearly beat the Kansas City Chiefs twice. They made big improvements under John Gruden and got even better in the offseason. Look for a big effort for them on Monday Night Football at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas in front of fans for the first time, which will be a big advantage as this has been anticipated by Raiders fans since the move to Vegas.
The Raiders are loaded on offense and finished 8th in total offense last season at 383.3 yards per game. But the key is the improvement they will make defensively. They brought in one of the best coordinators in the game in Gus Bradley. They also added Yannick Ngakoue and Casey Hayward. And they spent five of their first six picks in the NFL Draft on defense.
The Ravens were celebrating a 20-0 preseason run. But it didn't last long because injuries have taken their toll on this team. They lost their top three running backs in Dobbins, Edwards and Hill to potential season-ending injuries prior to the season. They also lost starting CB Marcus Peters to a season-ending injury in practice this week. They have injuries at receiver right now as well and are a mash unit coming into the season.
Teams have plenty of game film on Lamar Jackson now to know how to stop him. Gus Bradley did just that a couple years ago when the Chargers upset the Ravens in the playoffs and Bradley was in charge of that defense that stopped him. The Ravens ranked just 19th in total offense last year and relied heavily on the run, ranking 1st at 191.9 yards per game on the ground. They only averaged 171.2 yards per game through the air. Without their top three running backs, it's hard to see them having nearly as much success this season, especially to start.
The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. Roll with the Raiders Monday.
|09-12-21||Steelers +6.5 v. Bills||Top||23-16||Win||100||94 h 19 m||Show|
20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5
The Buffalo Bills are getting a lot of hype heading into this season after coming out of nowhere to make the AFC Championship Game last year. They went 9-2 ATS over their final 11 games last year and put up gaudy offensive numbers. So you're now paying a premium to back the Bills to start this season.
I did make a lot of money backing the Bills last year, and I am reasonably high on them. Just not this high. I like Josh Allen, but he's not going to have as big of a season as he did a year ago. And it just seems like everyone is sleeping on the Pittsburgh Steelers after a 12-4 season that ended in a disappointing loss to the Cleveland Browns after the game got out of hand due to turnovers in the playoffs.
The Steelers boast an elite defense that ranked 3rd in the NFL last year at 305.8 yards per game and 3rd in scoring at 19.5 points per game allowed. That defense can carry them this season. Big Ben is motivated at 39 years old for one final Super Bowl run, and when he has been healthy he has been very good. He is also in great shape. He has a bunch of underrated receivers and tight ends, and now the Steelers should have an improved running game with the moves they made along the offensive line while also drafting Alabama RB Najee Harris in the first round.
Buffalo could not run the ball last year unless it was Josh Allen doing it. They will be one-dimensional and easier to stop because of it. They had a middle-of-the-pack defense last year ranking 14th in total defense at 352.5 yards per game. And this line should just be closer to Buffalo -3 when you factor in home-field advantage. I have these teams power rated similarly, so give the Bills 3 points for home-field advantage and that's what the line should be. So we are getting 3 to 3.5 points of value here.
The Steelers are 23-8-2 ATS in their last 33 games as underdogs, including 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as road underdogs. You would have to go back a few years to find the last time the Steelers were this big of an underdog with Big Ben as their starting quarterback. Take the Steelers Sunday.
|09-12-21||Chargers v. Washington Football Team +1||Top||20-16||Loss||-110||94 h 18 m||Show|
25* NFL Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington +1
The Washington Football Team won the NFC East in Ron Rivera's first season. They did so with Dwayne Haskins at quarterback for most of the season, and a hobbled Alex Smith for the majority of the rest of it. That's because they had one of the best defenses in the NFL last season.
That will be the case again this season as Washington is loaded on defense, especially up front with arguably the best defensive line in the league. They ranked 2nd in the NFL behind only the Rams in total defense last season, allowing 304.6 yards per game.
There's going to be drastic improvements on offense this season. They brought in Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was a money making machine with the Miami Dolphins last year and proved he still has it. Studs Antonio Gibson (RB), Terry McLaurin (WR) and Logan Thomas (TE) are all back. They added in WR's Curtis Samuel and Adam Humphries to give Fitzpatrick more weapons.
The Chargers are getting a lot of hype because of the rookie year that Justin Herbert had. He has some decent weapons, but he is working behind a revamped offensive line. Herbert and the OLine will have to deal with crowd noise this season, which they didn't have last year. And it will be a packed house in the nation's capital with fans rejuvenated for this team after they won the NFC East last year and their bright outlook.
I just like the chemistry for Washington to open the season with their staff and systems in place for a couple years now. The Chargers are going into this season with a new head coach, new offensive coordinator and a new defensive coordinator. It is going to take them some time to gel. And I certainly worry about them at the point of attack on both sides of the ball, where Washington is going to have a big advantage here.
Plays against favorites (LA Chargers) - in the first month of the season, a non-playoff team from last season that won their final two games are 30-6 (83.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet Washington Sunday.
|09-12-21||Vikings v. Bengals +3.5||24-27||Win||100||94 h 16 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Cincinnati Bengals +3.5
The Cincinnati Bengals were very competitive before Joe Burrow went down with an injury last year. His 264 completions were the most ever by an NFL QB through their first 10 career games. His five 300-yard passing games tied a Bengals season-season record. He became the first rookie to throw for 300 yards in three consecutive games.
Burrow has returned from his knee injury and actually got to play a drive in the preseason. Reports coming out of camp are that his arm is stronger than it was before and he is fully recovers. Burrow has a plethora of weapons now in WR's Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Ja'Marr Chase to go along with RB Joe Mixon. But the key is the upgrades on the offensive line, where the Bengals didn't allow a single sack in three preseason games.
Speaking of the preseason, the Vikings were terrible. They went 0-3 and scored just 13.7 points per game on offense while giving up 24.3 points per game on defense. You can't make a lot of of the preseason, but it's worth noting that the Vikings were previously great in the preseason under Mike Zimmer, so he clearly takes it seriously.
I'm just not a big Kirk Cousins guy, and until they move on from him I'm not going to trust their offense even though he has some decent weapons in Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson. The big concern is a Vikings defense that took a huge step back last year. They ranked 27th in total defense at 393.3 yards per game and 29th in scoring defense at 29.7 points per game. They can only be better with improved health, but I don't think they will be any better than Cincinnati defensively this season.
This line indicates that the Vikings would be favored by 6 or more on a neutral field, and I just don't see it. These teams are much closer power rated in my book with a healthy Joe Burrow for Cincinnati. So getting 3.5 points with the Bengals in front of a raucous home crowd in anticipation of the return of Burrow is a great value here.
The Vikings are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall. Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a favorite. Cincinnati is 35-17-2 ATS in its last 54 September games. The Bengals are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet the Bengals Sunday.
|09-12-21||Cardinals v. Titans OVER 52||38-13||Loss||-109||94 h 16 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cardinals/Titans OVER 52
The Arizona Cardinals and Tennessee Titans will be two of the best offensive teams in the NFL this season. The Titans ranked 2nd in the NFL in total offense last season at 396.4 yards per game and 4th in scoring offense at 30.8 points per game. The Cardinals ranked 6th in total offense at 384.6 yards per game last year.
There's reasons to believe both offenses will be just as good if not better this season. The Titans traded for Julio Jones, and he and AJ Brown form one of the best 1-2 punches at receiver in the NFL. The Cardinals signed AJ Green to pair him with De'Andre Hopkins, giving the Cardinals an elite duo themselves. It appears both Green and Jones have a lot left in the tank.
The Titans ranked 28th in total defense last year at 398.3 yards per game allowed while also giving up 27.4 points per game. They did nothing to improve their defense in the offseason and will be terrible on that side of the ball once again. The Cardinals have a middle-of-the-pack defense and the addition of JJ Watt won't do much other than provide name value.
The OVER is 22-7-1 in Titans last 30 games overall. The OVER is 15-5-1 in Titans last 21 home games. The OVER is 9-1 in Titans last 10 home games against NFC West opponents. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|09-12-21||Eagles v. Falcons OVER 48||Top||32-6||Loss||-108||94 h 16 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Eagles/Falcons OVER 48
I like the outlook of both the Eagles and Falcons on offense this season. But I expect these to be two of the worst defenses in the NFL once again this season. Atlanta gave up 25.9 points per game and nearly 400 yards per game last season. They ranked 29th in total defense. Philadelphia gave up 26.1 points per game last season.
The Eagles did get a spark offensively late in the year when Jalen Hurts took over at quarterback, and that experience gained will help him a ton coming into this season. He led the Eagles for 1,312 yards of offense in his final three starts last year, which was 2nd in the NFL to only the Bills during that stretch. I like the talent on offense with RB Mile Sanders, young receivers DeVonta Smith and Jalen Raegor, and a pair of elite tight ends in Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert.
Speaking of elite tight ends, the Falcons have a pair now themselves in top pick Kyle Pitts from Florida to go along with Hayden Hurst. Calvin Ridley is one of the best young receivers in the NFL now too. The addition of Pitts will help ease the loss of Julio Jones, who just wasn't used right in Atlanta, was always injured and almost never happy here. So it's probably a good thing they moved on from him.
The Falcons should be improved offensively this season with head coach Arthur Smith running the show. He comes from the Tennessee Titans, where he served as their offensive coordinator and helped lead the resurgence of QB Ryan Tannehill and RB Derrick Henry. The Titans ranked 2nd in total offense and 4th in scoring offense last season.
Philadelphia signed an offensive mind in Nick Sirianni as their head coach. He served as offensive coordinator under Frank Reich over the past three seasons. Reich guided the Eagles to a Super Bowl under Doug Pederson. So you have to like the OVER when both head coaches are offensive-minded.
The Eagles have a terrible secondary that the Falcons should be able to exploit, and there's just not much to like at all about this Falcons defense outside of maybe linebacker. The conditions will be perfect for a shootout inside the dome in Atlanta. The OVER is 32-15 in Eagles last 47 road games. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.
|09-09-21||Cowboys v. Bucs -8||29-31||Loss||-109||30 h 39 m||Show|
15* Cowboys/Bucs NFL Season Opener on Tampa Bay -8
Home teams on Thursday night NFL season openers have gone 15-2 SU in the last 17 games. These teams coming off a Super Bowl win at home usually tend to play well in that first game back the next season. And that should be the case with the Tampa Bay Bucs, especially now that they'll have a big home-field advantage with a packed house of home fans.
The Bucs are primed to be one of the best teams in the NFL again. They return all 22 starters from last season, so the chemistry will be there. The Bucs started slow last year in Tom Brady's first season, but they kept getting better and better as the season progressed, culminating in a dominant win over the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. They should pick up right where they left off.
Conversely, the Dallas Cowboys have a ton of issues they are dealing with right now. Dak Prescott is coming off a shoulder injury and didn't get to play in the preseason. He will be rusty. He'll be working behind a depleted offensive line that will be without Zack Martin, Brandon KNights, Josh Ball and Mitch Hyatt. Tyron Smith and La'el Collins are also battling injuries and questionable.
While the Bucs will get plenty of stops with their elite defense, the Cowboys aren't likely to get many, which is why I'm willing to lay the points here. Dallas gave up 29.6 points and 386.4 yards per game last season and did little to improve their defense on offense. Instead, they have put their money in their flashy offense at the skill positions. They aren't building this thing the right way.
Dallas went 0-8 ATS in the first half of the season last season. Tampa Bay is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games with a total set of 49.5 or higher. The Cowboys are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Bucs are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet the Buccaneers Thursday.
|02-07-21||Chiefs v. Bucs +3||Top||9-31||Win||100||45 h 36 m||Show|
20* Chiefs/Bucs Super Bowl 55 No-Brainer on Tampa Bay +3
The Tampa Bay Bucs pretty much have every advantage in this game outside of the quarterback position. And while Patrick Mahomes can make up for a lot of other problems, I don't think he'll be able to overcome them in the Super Bowl and get the Chiefs to cover this 3-point spread.
You could also argue that the Bucs have the better offense right now. Since their bye week, the Bucs have the top scoring offense in the NFL at 34 points per game. The Chiefs are scoring 26 points per game during that same time frame. That's an 8-point margin in favor of the Bucs. It has been especially impressive watching the Bucs top 30 points in all three of their playoff games against very good defenses in Washington, New Orleans and Green Bay.
On the other side of the ball, the Bucs have the better defense. They rank 6th according to football outsiders while the Chiefs rank 18th. Just from a raw numbers standpoint, the Bucs give up 22.3 points, 330.7 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play. The Chiefs allow 22.4 points, 355.8 yards per game and 5.7 per play.
The matchup here that I think is going to make the biggest difference in the game is Tampa Bay's pass rush against Kansas City's banged-up offensive line. The Chiefs are now without their two starting tackls in Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz, plus C Kilgore is questionable. The Bucs have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL led by DE's Pierre-Paul and Barrett. The Bucs sacked Aaron Rodgers five times in the NFC Championship Game, and they will certainly be able to get after Mahomes too.
The injury news is much better for the Bucs. They are expected to have WR Antonio Brown, S Antoine Winfield Jr., LB Lavonte David and TE Cameron Brate available for this game as they are all listed as probable. S Jordan Whitehead is more on the questionable side, but having Winfield Jr. back is going to be huge. And keep in mind this is the first time a team has ever played at home for the Super Bowl, so there has to be some home-field advantage for the Bucs with the familiarity plus 22,000 fans in attendance.
The Bucs are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS since their bye week, which came late in the season. As stated before, they have been a different team since. So you can almost throw out that first meeting with the Chiefs in which the Bucs lost 24-27. They played about as poorly as they possibly could and still only lost by 3 points. They will have an answer for Mahomes and company this time around, especially with the advantages they have up front on defense against this Chiefs offensive line.
Tampa Bay is 8-1 ATS when the total is 49.5 or higher this season. So when a shootout is expected, they have been up to the task. The Bucs are 6-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 6 or more yards per play this season. Kansas City is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall with only one win by more than 6 points during this stretch. Bet the Bucs in Super Bowl 55 Sunday.
Jack's Top 10 Super Bowl Prop Bets:
1. 2nd half more points than 1st half (-160)
2. Chiefs Under 3.5 Punts (-160)
3. Under 80.5 Combined Penalty Yards (+120)
4. Bucs Over 7.5 Players w/ Reception (-165)
5. No Score in the 1st 5:30 (-125)
6. Opening Kickoff Touchback (No, +200)
7. Chiefs to Commit Most Accepted Penalties (-140)
8. Bucs Over 1.5 Sacks (-215)
9. Fournette O 25.5 Receiving Yards (+105)
10. Watkins O 36.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
|01-24-21||Bills +3.5 v. Chiefs||Top||24-38||Loss||-115||36 h 43 m||Show|
20* Bills/Chiefs AFC Championship No-Brainer on Buffalo +3.5
Now that the line has finally gotten to +3.5 it's time to pull the trigger on the Buffalo Bills. I've been waiting patiently for them to announce that Patrick Mahomes would be playing to get the Bills at a better number. And now it's time to pounce on a Bills team that is playing as well as anyone in the NFL over the last three months, and certainly playing better than the Chiefs right now.
The Bills are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games overall with their only loss coming 30-32 at Arizona on a hail mary on the last play of the game. So, they've gone 11 straight games without losing by more than this spread, making for an 11-0 system backing the Bills here. They are 8-0 SU in their last eight games overall with those eight wins coming by an average of 17.0 points per game.
This Buffalo offense is firing on all cylinders behind the play of Josh Allen. They are averaging 34.7 points per game in their last 10 games. Allen is more than capable of matching Mahomes and the Chiefs score for score. But what is getting overlooked here is just how much better this Buffalo defense has played down the stretch, and that is the X-factor. They are allowing just 17.1 points per game in their last eight games overall. They just held Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to 3 points last week, which is no small feat.
The Kansas City Chiefs are just barely surviving, but their luck runs out here. The Chiefs haven't won any of their last nine games by more than 6 points. You have to go all the way back to November 1st against the Jets to find the last time they covered a spread. They are 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. They've just been very fortunate in close games with each of their last eight wins coming by 6 points or less.
Now the Chiefs are dealing with an injury to their best player in Mahomes, and I'm not even talking about the concussion he sustained against the Browns last week. It's the foot injury that clearly hampered him the rest of the game after it happened, and it was the start of the Browns comeback. When Mahomes doesn't have his mobility, he's much easier to defend. And I see that being the case here for this rapidly improving Bills defense.
A big reason the Chiefs have struggled to put teams away is because they have been one of the worst red zone offenses in the NFL. They are fine moving the ball between the 20's, but terrible at turning it into touchdowns. And the Bills have what it takes to buckle down and hold them to field goals when they do get in the red zone. Conversely, the Chiefs are terrible in the red zone defensively, and Josh Allen has been great at getting touchdowns and not turning the ball over when he gets inside the 20.
The Bills are 7-2 SU against teams with winning records this season. Yes, one of those losses came to the Chiefs 17-26 on October 19th, but that was a terrible spot for the Bills. They were on just five days' rest as the game had to be rescheduled due to COVID. Meanwhile, the Chiefs were on seven days' rest in that contest. It was a huge advantage for the Chiefs. The Bills have been a different team since in winning 10 of their last 11 games with their only loss by 2 points.
Now the Bills are in the favorable situation here having played on Saturday while the Chiefs played on Sunday last week. The Bills are the team with the extra day of rest, and they got to watch the Chiefs play on Sunday. That's a nice rest and preparation advantage for the red hot road team here.
The Bills are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Chiefs are 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. Kansas City is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games. The Chiefs are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games on grass. These four trends combine for a 30-1 system backing Buffalo. The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Kansas City. Take the Bills Sunday.
|01-24-21||Bucs v. Packers -3||Top||31-26||Loss||-125||67 h 14 m||Show|
25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Green Bay Packers -3
The Green Bay Packers fought hard to get home-field advantage throughout the playoffs down the stretch. They knew that their four previous NFC Championship Game were all on the road, which is a big reason they lost them. But they handled their business down the stretch to get this game at home, and now the fruits of their labor will pay off as they'll be going to the Super Bowl after a win and cover against the Tampa Bay Bucs.
Nobody has played better than the Packers down the stretch. They are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with all seven victories coming by 7 points or more and by an average of 14.9 points per game. That includes their 32-18 win over the Rams last week in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the final score. The Packers outgained the Rams 484 to 244 in that game, or by 240 total yards.
Many came into that game believing the Rams had the best defense in the NFL. Well, Aaron Rodgers and company did whatever they wanted in that game. They rushed for 188 yards and passes for 296 more. And getting the ground game going has been a big key to Green Bay's success down the stretch. They have quietly rushed for 120 or more yards in six of their last seven games. They also have one of the best defenses they've had in years, holding opponents to 22.8 points, 328.8 yards and 217 passing yards per game this season.
This will be the 3rd straight road game for the Bucs in the playoffs, which is always a tough situation. And it's a warm weather team here traveling up north for a game in the cold. Temperatures will be in the 20s on Sunday in Green Bay with winds around 10 MPH. I'm sure Tom Brady doesn't even like the cold any more after moving to Tampa Bay. And his arm strength isn't near what it used to be. The Packers have a huge edge at QB in this one.
I was on the Bucs last week against the Saints, but their 30-20 win was misleading. The Saints gave that game away with four turnovers. Brady did not look good at all as he went just 18-of-33 passing for 199 yards in the win. He will need to be much better if he wants any chance of competing with Rodgers and this high-powered Green Bay offense. And I just love this underrated Green Bay secondary, which matches up very well with these Tampa Bay receivers. There's a good chance the Bucs will be without Antonio Brown as well.
Green Bay is 75-48 ATS in its last 123 games as a home favorite of 7 points or less. The Packers are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 home games in the 2nd half of the season vs. teams that outscore opponents by 6-plus points per game. The Packers are 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 12.4 points per game. Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Green Bay gets and extra day of rest here after playing on Saturday while Tampa Bay played on Sunday night. They got to sit around and watch the Bucs play, which is a nice advantage. Bet the Packers Sunday.
|01-17-21||Bucs +3 v. Saints||Top||30-20||Win||102||71 h 59 m||Show|
25* NFL Divisional Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Bucs +3
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have now reeled off five straight victories and their offense is playing at a level as good as anyone that's left in the playoffs. They are scoring 35.8 points per game during this five-game winning streak.
I was really impressed with what they did against Washington's defense last game. They put up 507 total yards on a Washington defense that is one of the best in the NFL, especially up front. If they can do that against Washington, they can certainly penetrate this overrated New Orleans defense.
The Bucs are also playing pretty well defensively in giving up 329.9 yards per game on the season. And now they will get back their best defender in LB Devin White, who leads the team with 140 tackles, 9 sacks and 18 tackles for loss. White had to sit out the Washington game, which is a big reason they actually somewhat struggled to stop Taylor Heineke and company. They could also get back their best run stuffer in DT Jeremiah Ledbetter from a calf injury. RB Ronald Jones could return after missing last week as well.
The Saints had some new injuries pop up in their win over the lowly Bears last week. RB Latavius Murray, QB Taysom Hill and CB Patrick Robinson all missed practice for a second straight day on Thursday. DE Trey Hendrickson, LT Terron Armstead and TE Jared Cook were all limited in practice on Thursday as well.
No question the Bucs are going to be the more motivated team here after losing the first two meetings of the season with the Saints, including their fluky 38-3 loss last time. I think we see an inspired effort from them similar to the one we saw from the Ravens last week, who were playing with identical double-revenge after losing to the Titans in the playoffs last year and in their first meeting this season.
New Orleans is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 playoff home games. The Saints are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record. Only one of the Saints' last nine games has come against a team with a winning record, and that was their home loss to the Chiefs in which they were outgained by 126 yards and were blown out worse than the final score showed. Bet the Bucs Sunday.
|01-16-21||Ravens v. Bills -139||3-17||Win||100||49 h 35 m||Show|
15* Ravens/Bills AFC BAILOUT on Buffalo ML -139
I'm going to take the points out of play here and back the Buffalo Bills on the Money Line Saturday night. The Bills are playing as well as anyone in the playoffs right now. They are 10-1 in their last 11 games overall with their only loss coming on the hail mary by Arizona. They are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall, and they have won seven straight SU with six of those coming by double-digits.
Josh Allen had an MVP-caliber season. He has guided the Bills to an average of 36.7 PPG in their last nine games overall as this offense is humming as well as any offense in the NFL right now. And the Bills have played much better defensively down the stretch to live up to their potential. They are giving up just 19.1 points per game in their last seven games overall.
Allen and the offense will get theirs against the Ravens, and it's going to come down to how well the Bills stop the run. They played soft against the run against the Colts last week because they were up 14 in the second half and defending the pass. They have allowed 86 or fewer rushing yards in four of their last seven games overall. And they have the speed at linebacker to contain Lamar Jackson.
This is a total different matchup here as the Bills can stack eight in the box to stop the run. Jackson can't beat them with his arm, and that's the knock on him. The Ravens are averaging just 155.9 passing yards per game in their last eight games. They have been held below 200 passing yards in 13 of their 17 games this season. So with Buffalo knowing it needs to stop the run to win this game, I think defensive minded head coach Sean McDermott comes up with the proper game plan to do just that. And you know if Buffalo gets ahead big the Ravens don't have the ability to come back.
Lamar Jackson has never played in snow and the conditions could really hurt him. He struggles to take care of the football as it is with terrible ball security. And temperatures are going to be in the 20's Saturday night in Buffalo with a 40% chance of snow and winds from 10-15 MPH. Allen is obviously used to playing in tough conditions dating back to his time at Wyoming. That's a huge advantage for the Bills in this one.
Baltimore is just 3-4 SU against teams with winning records this season. Buffalo is 6-2 SU against teams with winning records. The Bills are 7-1 ATS in all games where the line is +3 to -3 this season. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Buffalo being 10-1 SU in its last 11 games overall applies here since we just need them to win straight up. Roll with the Bills on the Money Line Saturday.
|01-16-21||Rams v. Packers -6.5||Top||18-32||Win||100||45 h 54 m||Show|
20* Rams/Packers NFC No-Brainer on Green Bay -6.5
The Green Bay Packers fought hard to get the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage in the first round. And now they are going to pay it off with a dominant win over the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Divisional Round Saturday.
The Packers have gone 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall with all six wins coming by 7 points or more and by an average of 15.0 points per game. That includes their 40-14 home win over the Titans in the snow. And it is going to be cold, windy and there is currently a 40% chance of snow.
That's bad news for a West Coast team in the Rams that is used to playing in perfect conditions. We've seen Jared Goff struggle in the past in cold weather in Chicago. And Goff is far from 100% right now. The only reason he played last week against Seattle was because John Wolford got hurt. He came in and didn't have much on his throws as he is dealing with a broken thumb still. And Wofford has already been ruled out, leaving it all on Goff.
Goff completed just 9-of-19 passes against the Seahawks last week. And he isn't the only injury concern here. The Rams' best defender in Aaron Donald suffered a rib injury that forced him out of action in the second half against Seattle. He will play, but he won't be is usual dominant self. WR Cooper Kupp (knee) was held out of practice Thursday and is questionable. LB Terrell Lewis (ankle) has been ruled out.
With Goff hobbled and Kupp not himself, the Rams are going to struggled to keep up with the Packers on the scoreboard. Aaron Rodgers is the MVP of the league with 70.7% completions, 4,299 yards and a 48-to-5 TD/INT ratio. He and Devante Adams have hooked up 115 times for 1,374 yards and 18 touchdowns. Aaron Jones quietly has rushed for 1,104 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 5.5 per carry. This is a Packers offense that is averaging 31.8 points per game on the season.
The Rams have really been held in check offensively down the stretch. The 30 points they scored on Seattle was fluky as they did it on just 333 total yards and an average of 4.9 yards per play. They were aided by a pick-6 early in that game. They are averaging just 20.2 points, 324.2 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play in their last five games overall. That's not going to get it done against an improved Packers defense that allows just 334.1 yards per game this season.
The Packers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in this series, winning five times by 10 points or more. The favorite is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. This trend continues as the rested Packers put it on the Rams for four quarters, and Jared Goff and company have no answer. Take the Packers Saturday.
|01-10-21||Bears +10.5 v. Saints||9-21||Loss||-119||69 h 33 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Bears +10.5
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Chicago Bears off their 16-35 loss to the Packers last week. They were in that game in the 2nd half down only 5 before the Packers took over late. But it was a much closer game than the final score would indicate. The Bears actually outgained the Packers by 40 yards and held them to 316 total yards.
This Chicago offense has really come to life behind Mitch Trubisky down the stretch. They are averaging 30.2 points and 382.2 yards per game in their last six games overall, which have all come with Trubisky under center. Those are the kind of numbers that are going to make it tough for the Saints to put them away. And the Bears obviously have one of the better defenses in the NFL, giving up 344.1 yards per game on the season.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Saints, who are overvalued off back-to-back blowout wins over the Vikings 52-33 and Panthers 33-7. The Panthers had about five red zone trips end in zero points and turned the ball over five times. That was a hugely misleading final score, and it has provided us with some serious line value here on the Bears.
Consider that the Bears were only 4.5-point underdogs to the Packers last week and now they are 10.5-point underdogs to the Saints. That's a 6-point adjustment. Keep in mind the Packers beat the Saints earlier this season too, and the Bears have been competitive in every game outside of their two matchups with the Packers. They only have three losses by double-digits all season, and two were against the Packers. The other was against the Rams by 14, who were coming off a bye week.
Also consider that the Bears were 5-point underdogs to the Saints in their first meeting this season. They only lost that game 23-26 in overtime. So this is also a 5.5-point adjustment off that first meeting, which saw the Bears hang tough for four quarters and overtime, and I think they can hang tough again. Keep in mind that was Nick Foles at QB too for the Bears in that first meeting, and Trubisky is the better of the two quarterbacks, which has been proven here down the stretch.
The Saints have been choke artists in the playoffs in recent years. New Orleans is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 playoff home games, including 0-4 ATS in its last four playoff home games. They were upset by both the Rams and Vikings the last two seasons at home in the playoffs. Underdogs are 11-1 ATS in the 12 wild card games over the last three seasons. Teams entering the playoffs with an 8-8 record or worse are 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven instances in the Wild Card Round.
Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10.5 points (New Orleans) - off a road win over a division rival, a top team winning 75% or more of their games in the second half of the season are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Roll with the Bears Sunday.
|01-09-21||Bucs v. Washington Football Team +8||Top||31-23||Push||0||48 h 8 m||Show|
25* NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington +8
The Washington Football Team gets overlooked because they have a mediocre offense. But they have a championship level defense, and that fact alone gives them a chance to pull the upset here against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round. At the very least they should stay within this inflated 8-point spread.
Washington has allowed 20 points or fewer in seven straight games coming in. That's hard to do in today's NFL, and it just goes to show how dominant their defense has really been. They have arguably the best defensive line in the NFL, and the way to get to Tom Brady is with pressure, especially pressure up the middle. Washington can do just that.
Tom Brady has been awful in primetime games this year. He is 0-4 ATS in primetime games with five touchdowns and five interceptions. He has an 8:30 bed time, which may have something to do with it. And the Bucs come in overvalued on a 4-game winning streak, but all four wins came against teams with losing records. Tampa went 1-5 SU against teams with records of .500 or better this season. The temps will be in the 30s at game time so this is also Brady having to go outdoors in the cold weather, something you don't want from aging quarterbacks.
Washington may be a losing team at 7-9, but they have been a different team down the stretch and with Alex Smith under center. They have gone 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall. Their only two losses came with Dwayne Haskins as their starter. They are 5-0 SU in games that Smith has started to improve to 11-5 with Smith compared to 6-26 with all other starting QB's since he arrived in Washington.
The last seven teams that entered the playoffs with a record of 8-8 or worse have gone 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS. That includes outright upsets by the two teams that had 7-9 records. These teams consistently come in undervalued due to their record. But as stated before, Washington has been a much better team down the stretch than its record would suggest.
Tampa Bay has a huge loss on the defensive side of the ball that is getting overlooked. LB Devin White, the teams's leading tackler with 140 tackles, 9 sacks and 18 tackles for loss, will be out of this game due to COVID-19. I think his loss is a huge one, and it will allow Antonio Gibson to run the ball more effectively and take some pressure off of Smith.
Underdogs are 11-1 ATS in 12 Wild Card games over the last three seasons. Washington is 6-0 ATS off a win by 6 points or less over the last three seasons. Washington is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a win. Bet Washington Saturday.
|01-09-21||Colts v. Bills -6||Top||24-27||Loss||-110||41 h 59 m||Show|
20* Colts/Bills AFC Wild Card No-Brainer on Buffalo -6
Nobody is playing better than the Buffalo Bills coming into the playoffs. The Bills would be on a 10-game winning streak if not for the fluke Hail Mary by Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals. But that loss may have been a blessing in disguise because the Bills have been dominant ever since.
Indeed, the Bills have won six straight games all by double-digits. They are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall. And this team continues to be undervalued week after week. They are lighting up the scoreboard with 37.9 points per game in their last eight games. Their defense is playing up to the level that it did last season. They are giving up just 18.3 points per game in their last six games.
Josh Allen is by far the superior quarterback in this matchup. I don't trust Philip Rivers to be able to match him score for score. Rivers is used to warm weather after playing in San Diego and also playing in a dome in Indianapolis. He will be out of his element here. Temperatures in Buffalo will be in the 20s around kickoff. I always like fading older quarterbacks with questionable arm strength like Rivers outdoors in the playoffs. We saw the Colts struggle outdoors early this season in elements when they lost 23-32 at Cleveland. They also lost outdoors at Pittsburgh in Week 16.
The Colts have played the single-easiest schedule int he entire NFL this season. They played the 32nd-ranked schedule. Buffalo played the 13th-toughest schedule. So that disparity in SOS definitely favors the Bills. The Colts went 2-4 against teams with winning records this season, while the Bills went 5-2 against teams with winning records, including 3-0 in their last three with all three wins by double-digits over Seattle by 10, Pittsburgh by 11 and Miami by 30.
And keep in mind the Bills rested their starters in the 2nd half of that 56-26 win over Miami last week. They will now be the fresher team here, which is a big factor considering this is the first game of the Wild Card round with kickoff set for 1:00 EST Saturday afternoon. The Colts found themselves in a dog fight with the Jaguars last week. They led 20-14 late in the fourth quarter with the Jaguars having the ball around the 50-yard line with a chance to take the lead.
The Bills are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall. The Colts are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game. Indianapolis is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games as an underdog. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. These four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing Buffalo. Take the Bills Saturday.
|01-03-21||Washington Football Team -1 v. Eagles||Top||20-14||Win||100||103 h 31 m||Show|
20* Washington/Eagles NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Washington -1
Washington wins the NFC East with a win Sunday night against the Philadelphia Eagles. It's safe to say they'll be max motivated. I don't think you can say the same for the Eagles, who were just eliminated from playoff contention with their 17-37 loss at Dallas last week. I always like fading teams the week after they have been eliminated from the playoffs.
The Eagles have now lost six of their last even games overall. Their injury situation is awful. They led 14-3 at Dallas las week before Fletcher Cox went out with a stinger. Dallas outscored them 34-3 the rest of the way. It's unlikely that Cox will be back this week, and he's their most important player on defense, especially when it comes to stopping the run and getting after the passer.
The Eagles are also missing a handful of players in the secondary. The Cardinals and Cowboys have both torched their defense the last two weeks. The Cardinals had 526 yards against them, while the Cowboys put up 513 yards against them. The talent level they are putting on the field might be the worst in the NFL right now on the defensive side of the ball.
Washington is likely to get Alex Smith back at quarterback this season. Washington is 10-5 with Smith as a starter, and 6-26 with everyone else over the last few seasons. I don't think they would have let Dwayne Haskins go if they didn't know Smith would return this week. There's a good chance they get back their best receiver in Terry McClaurin from injury this week as well. And RB Antonio Gibson returned last week and is back to full strength. So the matchup is a good one for this Washington offense.
But it's the Washington defense that has me excited to back them again this week. They have held six straight opponents to 20 points or fewer. No defense is playing better than theirs right now. They give up just 21.0 points per game this season. They held the Eagles to just 17 points and 26 total yards in their first meeting this season in their 27-17 victory. They also forced three turnovers, and Jalen Hurts had three turnovers against the Cowboys last week. Chase Allen and company will make life difficult on the rookie Hurts in this one. And it helps that Washington now has some game film on him after starting the last three weeks.
Washington is 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. The only two games they lost came with Haskins as a starter, and they were competitive in both with a 5-point loss to Seattle and a 7-point loss to Carolina. They upset the Cowboys, Steelers and 49ers with Smith at QB and I was on them in all three games. Even Taylor Heineke gave them a spark when he replaced Haskins last week, and they are good enough to win with him even if Smith can't go. I recommend betting this game early because when they announce Smith as a starter I expect this line to go to -3.
Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS in its last six games off an upset loss as a road favorite. Washington is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after gaining 350 or more total yards last game. Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. NFC East opponents. The Eagles are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss. Take Washington Sunday.
|01-03-21||Saints v. Panthers +7||Top||33-7||Loss||-114||99 h 39 m||Show|
25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Carolina Panthers +7
The New Orleans Saints are still alive for the No. 1 seed, but they would need a lot to go right and they know it. They'd need the Packers to lose to the Bears and the Seahawks to beat the 49ers, which would put them in a 3-way tie with both. They would win the tiebreaker based on their record against NFC teams in that scenario.
It's just unlikely to happen, and I think with the Saints knowing it, don't be surprised if they aren't 100% 'all in' for this Week 17 game. They would be better off resting their guys and getting ready for the playoffs. I think this line is adjusted too much in the Saints' favor because technically they still have something to play for, but the reality is that they aren't likely to improve their seeding.
What we do know is that the Carolina Panthers show up every week for head coach Matt Rhule. Washington had a chance to clinch the NFC East last week, and Carolina played spoiler in a 20-13 victory. And now the Panthers have a shot to play spoiler here against a hated division rival and will be 'all in' for their final game of the 2020-21 season.
It's also true that Carolina is much better than is 5-10 record would indicate. Indeed, eight of those 10 losses came by one score. The only two blowout losses came in their two meetings with Tampa Bay. They only lost 24-27 to the Saints in their first meeting this season, so they already proved they could play with them.
New Orleans is getting too much respect off its 52-33 win over a Vikings team that appeared to quit last week, at least defensively. The Panthers will offer a lot more resistance here. The Panthers held the Packers to 24 points and 291 total yards two weeks ago and should have won that game outright. And last week they held Washington to 13 points and forced four turnovers.
Teddy 'Covers' Bridgewater just keeps getting the money. He is 36-13 ATS in his career as a starter, including 24-5 ATS as an underdog. And the Panthers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs this season. This just goes to show that they come to play every week under Rhule, and that they have lost so many close games this season that they are consistently undervalued.
Injuries are starting to pile up for the Saints. They are without three key receivers in Michael Thomas, Deonte Harris and Tre'quan Smith. They just lost starting LB Kwon Alexander to a season-ending injury last week. He was starting to play well after getting claimed from the 49ers. Safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson (66 tackles, 1 INT) will be out with COVID. Fellow S Marcus Williams (59 tackles, 3 INT), DE Trey Hendrickson (12.5 sacks) CB Patrick Robinson (2 INT) and TE Josh Hill are all questionable.
New Orleans is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after outrushing its last opponents by 150 or more yards. Carolina is 6-0 ATS vs. teams that average 29 or more points per game over the last three seasons. The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings with only one loss by more than 5 points in those six meetings. The underdog is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Bet the Panthers Sunday.
|01-03-21||Falcons +7.5 v. Bucs||27-44||Loss||-120||6 h 43 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta Falcons +7.5
The Atlanta Falcons show up week in and week out since Raheem Morris took over. And they'll certainly show up in Week 17 against a division rival in the Tampa Bay Bucs. They want revenge after blowing a 24-7 lead to the Bucs in their first meeting this season just two weeks ago. And they don't have to wait long to get it.
While the Falcons have lost four straight, all four losses were by 5 points or fewer, and three were to playoff teams. They only lost 16-21 to the Saints and had a chance to win the game on their final drive. They lost 17-20 to the Chargers. They lost 27-31 to the Bucs. And they only lost 14-17 to the Chiefs last week as double-digit underdogs. They had a chance to win the game or send it to overtime late, but their kicker missed the game-tying field goal.
What makes the Falcons so intriguing all of a sudden is that they have played some tremendous defense down the stretch under Morris, who is their defensive coordinator. They have allowed 21 or fewer points in four of their last five games overall. And holding the Chiefs to just 17 points just goes to show how good this defense is playing right now.
The Bucs are overvalued off their 47-7 win over a Detroit Lions team that has quit and is banged up. Now they go from being 6-point favorites over the Falcons two weeks ago to 7.5-point favorites over them this week. That adjustment is not warranted considering the Falcons played them tough in that first meeting and only lost by 4 points.
And while the Falcons are very healthy right now, the Bucs are going to be without several key players in their defensive front seven. They will be without LB Shaquil Barrett, LB Devin White, DL Steve McClendon and DT Jeremiah Ledbetter. And I think this line is higher than it should be because Bruce Arians has come out publicly and said the Bucs are going to try and win and not rest starters. That has given us extra line value here. Don't be surprised if the Bucs do pull some starters in the second half of this one.
The Bucs are just 1-3 SU in their last four home games with their only win coming against the Vikings in a game that was closer than the 26-14 score would indicate. The Vikings left 10 points on the board with three missed field goals and a missed extra point. The Vikings outgained the Bucs in that contest as well.
The Falcons have lost just once by more than 7 points in their last 11 games overall. That was a 9-24 loss to the Saints in which they led 9-3 just before halftime before getting shut out the rest of the way. That makes for a 10-1 system backing the Falcons pertaining to this 7.5-point spread. Getting points with the Falcons has been a very profitable move. Atlanta is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games as a road underdog. Tampa Bay is 8-21-1 ATS in its last 30 games as a home favorite. Roll with the Falcons Sunday.
|12-28-20||Bills -7 v. Patriots||Top||38-9||Win||100||11 h 43 m||Show|
20* Bills/Patriots ESPN No-Brainer on Buffalo -7
The Buffalo Bills want the No. 2 seed in the AFC. That would give them home-field advantage all the way until they have to face the Chiefs in the the AFC Championship Game if both teams win out. Adding to their motivation is that they have been the little brother to New England for a few decades. They would love to pull off the season sweep here in emphatic fashion.
Of course the Bills are going to show up for a prime time game on National TV. And of course they are going to show up with it being the Patriots. So motivation won't be an issue for them, and I expect them to continue firing on all cylinders as they have been for weeks now.
Indeed, the Bills are 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall with their only loss coming on the hail mary by the Arizona Cardinals on the final play of the game. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six gmes overall with five wins by double-digits during this stretch. They beat the Broncos 48-19 last week, the Steelers 26-15 two weeks ago, the 49ers 34-24 three weeks ago, the Chargers 27-17 four weeks ago and the Seahawks 44-34 seven weeks ago.
Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level by leading the Bills to an average of 34.8 points per game in their last six games. And their defense is starting to play up to its potential now in holding the last four opponents to 18.8 points per game. They held the Steelers to 224 yards and the Broncos to 255 yards the last two weeks.
There's no way this pitiful New England offense is going to be able to keep up with Allen and company. They have averaged just 248.3 yards per game in their last four games coming in. They were held to 12 points against the Dolphins and outgained by 80 yards. They were held to 3 points and 220 yards against the Rams. And they were held to 179 yards against the Cardinals. They were also held to 291 yards in a misleading win over the Chargers. And now they are without their best CB in Stephon Gilmore, who would have been matched up with Stefon Diggs. Now Diggs, who has 111 receptions for 1314 yards this season, will have a huge game tonight.
The Bills are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. Buffalo is 11-4-2 ATS in its last 17 road games. The road team is 21-8-2 ATS in the last 31 meetings. Bet the Bills Monday.
|12-27-20||Falcons +11 v. Chiefs||Top||14-17||Win||100||3 h 19 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons +11
The Kansas City Chiefs are overvalued due to their 13-1 record. I have been selling high on them for weeks, except for last week I had them when they covered as closing 2.5-point favorites over the Saints. And now this is a huge letdown spot off that win over New Orleans as they won't be nearly as motivated to face the Falcons. Not to mention, they basically already have the No. 1 seed wrapped up in the AFC and a first-round bye.
The Chiefs have gone 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. They have won all six games, but all six wins came by 6 points or less. They just don't keep their foot on the gas and they just seem to be going through the motions waiting for the playoffs to come. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Falcons pull the upset here, and at the very least this 11-point spread is way too high.
The Falcons continue to play hard for Raheem Morris. In their last seven games, they have either won the game outright or lost by 5 points or fewer six times. So they have been competitive in every game. The only exception was the loss to the Saints 9-24 in which they led 9-3 but fell apart in the second half. They gave the Bucs all they could handle last week in a 27-31 loss. That's a Bucs team that went on to crush Detroit 47-7 on Saturday.
The Falcons have a very underrated defense that has allowed 24 or fewer points in four of their last five games overall. They will be able to slow down the Chiefs here. And Matt Ryan and company should be able to keep pace as well. They have scored 25 or more points in four of their last seven games and are averaging 25.8 points per game in their last four.
Kansas City is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games after gaining 400 or more yards in three straight games coming in. The Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight Week 16 games. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss. The Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as favorites. Bet the Falcons Sunday.
|12-27-20||Bears v. Jaguars OVER 46.5||41-17||Win||100||3 h 19 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bears/Jaguars OVER 46.5
The Chicago Bears have become an offensive juggernaut with Mitch Trubisky at quarterback. He has led the Bears to 30 or more points in three straight games now. And they have gotten their running game going, making things easier on him in the play-action passing game.
The Bears have rushed for at least 140 yards in all three games. They only had to punt once against the Vikings last week in their 33-27 victory. And now they face a Jaguars defense that gave up 40 points to Baltimore last week. In fact, the Jaguars have now allowed at least 24 points in each of their last 13 games, all losses. They give up 30.2 points per game this season. The Bears should get to 30-plus points for a fourth consecutive week.
The Jaguars should be able to do their part against a Bears defense that allowed 34 points to the Lions three weeks ago and 27 to the Vikings last week. I think Jacksonville should top 20 points in this one. Mike Glennon will be their quarterback, and he has been the best of the Jaguars' three different signal callers this season. It will be great weather in Jacksonville as well, which sets this game up to be a shootout.
The OVER is 20-7 in Bears last 27 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The OVER is 19-7 in Bears last 26 games as a road favorite. The OVER is 4-0 in Jaguars last four games following an ATS loss. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-27-20||Bengals v. Texans OVER 44.5||37-31||Win||100||3 h 19 m||Show|
15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Bengals/Texans OVER 44.5
The Cincinnati Bengals and Houston Texans have nothing to play for but pride. I like backing the OVER late in the season when that is the case. I see defense as being optional in this game, and for both the Bengals and Texans to hang big numbers offensively.
For starters, these are two of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Texans give up 27.6 points and 402.8 yards per game this season. The Bengals allow 25.4 points and 372.6 yards per game. The Texans still have a very good offense under Deshaun Watson, and the Bengals showed some life offensively last week with 27 points against a very good Steelers defense.
Houston is 19-6 OVER in its last 25 games coming off three or more consecutive unders. If the Texans hadn't fumbled inside the 5-yard line in the final seconds against the Colts two of the last three weeks, both those games would have gone OVER. I think that fact is providing us with some line value here with this total of only 44.5. Plus the Bengals have gone under the total in four of their last five while playing some very bad offenses in Washington, Giants, Dolphins, Cowboys and Steelers. That has also provided us with some value on the OVER. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-26-20||Dolphins -3 v. Raiders||26-25||Loss||-101||35 h 52 m||Show|
15* Dolphins/Raiders AFC Saturday Night BAILOUT on Miami -3
The Miami Dolphins have been the gift that keeps on giving for me and my premium clients. They will continue adding to our profits on the day after Christmas here against the fading Oakland Raiders. The Dolphins are now 9-5 SU this season and 11-3 ATS, the best ATS mark in the NFL.
Better yet, the Dolphins are now 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. They are currently the 7th seed in the AFC playoffs, tied with the Ravens for the final spot. They cannot afford to take their foot off the gas now, especially knowing they have a difficult game at Buffalo on deck next week. This is a must-win for them and they will play like it.
The Dolphins have the best scoring defense in the NFL at 18.4 points per game allowed. That's what makes them so underrated. Now they have Tua at quarterback coming into his own the last three weeks. Hew threw for 296 yards against the Bengals and 316 yards against the Chiefs before completing 20-of-26 passes against the Patriots last week. And the Dolphins showed they could win that game on the ground with 250 rushing yards in their 22-12 victory.
The Dolphins will be able to do whatever they want to offensively against a Raiders defense that gives up 30.1 points and 385.4 yards per game and just recently fired their defensive coordinator. It didn't matter much at all as they gave up 30 points and 402 yards against the Chargers last time out. And now after going 1-4 SU in their last five games overall, the Raiders have been all but eliminated from the playoffs and have nothing to play for the rest the way.
The Dolphins were missing three of their best weapons in WR Parker, WR Grant and TE Gesicki last week and still found a way to win with their running game and a high-efficiency game from Tua. But all three were close to playing last week, so there's a good chance they get back a few of them this week. The Raiders have a worse injury situation as they are missing a handful of starters on defense, have injuries all over their offensive line, and now Derek Carr had to leave the last game with a groin injury. He may return this week, but he won't be mobile at all and will probably hurt the Raiders more by playing than help them.
The Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games off two or more consecutive ATS losses. The Dolphins are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games, including 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games. Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last five December games. The Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, failing to cover the spread by a combined 66 points. I'll gladly back the better, more motivated team in this one that has a lot more to play for. Roll with the Dolphins Saturday.
|12-26-20||49ers v. Cardinals -4.5||Top||20-12||Loss||-101||31 h 7 m||Show|
20* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona Cardinals -4.5
Fading the 49ers has made me a lot of money this season. And I'm not about to stop now as they continue to be overvalued week after week, including here Saturday against Arizona in Week 16. The 49ers are now 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last six games overall with all six losses coming by 8 points or more. The Cardinals should be at least 7-point favorites in this matchup.
The 49ers have officially been eliminated from the playoffs after three straight upset losses to Buffalo, Washington and Dallas. Now they are down to third-string QB CJ Beathard, who is 1-9 as a starter in the NFL, including 0-3 in three meetings with the Cardinals. And their laundry list of injuries is worse than any other team in the NFL, which is the biggest reason they have struggled this season to a 5-9 record after nearly winning the Super Bowl last year.
The Cardinals are highly motivated right now to clinch a playoff spot. They are 8-6 and currently in the final spot in the NFC playoff race. They would clinch a spot in the postseason for the first time since 2015 if they win on Saturday and the Chicago Bears lose to the Jaguars on Sunday. They have owned the 49ers over the years as they are going for their 5th season sweep in the past 6 years after winning 24-20 at San Francisco in Week 1.
Kyler Murray looks fully recovered from a shoulder injury that hampered him for a few weeks during a three-game skid. But the Cardinals have since won their last two with a dominant 26-7 road win over the Giants and a 33-26 home win over the Eagles. The sign that Murray is healthy is that he is using his legs again with 21 rush attempts combined in those two victories.
The offense was certainly hitting on all cylinders against the Eagles with 526 yards as they outgained the Eagles by 104 yards. They had 390 yards on a very good Giants defense, and they held them to just 159 yards and outgained them by 231 yards. Now the season-long stats for the Cardinals really show they are a dominant team outscoring opponents by 4.4 points per game and outgaining them by 49.2 yards per game.
The 49ers cannot be trusted to hold onto the football. They have committed two or more turnovers in eight consecutive games and 10 of their last 11 games overall. Beathard is a turnover machine as well and will be running for his life in this one. And this 49ers defense looked to kind of quit last week in giving up 41 points to Dallas. They are just playing out the string right now and disappointed they have to be in Arizona over Christmas instead of being with their family due to the COVID restrictions in Santa Clara.
Plays against underdogs or PK (San Francisco) - after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, versus division opponents are 36-9 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons. Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record. The Cardinals are 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet the Cardinals Saturday.
|12-25-20||Vikings +7 v. Saints||33-52||Loss||-120||7 h 7 m||Show|
15* Vikings/Saints NFC ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +7
The Minnesota Vikings aren't officially eliminated from the playoffs yet. And until they are, I trust Mike Zimmer to have this team ready to go in Week 16 against the New Orleans Saints. After all, this is Christmas Day on National TV, so players will be up for this game to try and knock off the Saints. It's a Saints team they have quietly formed a rivalry with after meeting in the playoffs a couple times in recent years.
There's clearly value with the Vikings here. In fact, this is their largest underdog role of the season. They haven't been 7-point dogs or higher in any game this year. And in their two previous biggest dog roles, they lost in the closing seconds 26-27 as 6.5-point dogs at Seattle. They won outright 28-22 as 6-point dogs at Green Bay. And they deserved to cover had Dan Bailey not missed three FG's and an extra point in a 14-26 loss as 6-point dogs at Tampa Bay.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Vikings after going 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. But they have played better than that would suggest. In fact, the Vikings have now outgained seven straight opponents by an average of 63 yards per game. They have an offense that will keep them in this game with the Saints. They have averaged 407.3 yards per game in their last seven.
The Saints remain overvalued from a 9-game winning streak. But they have since lost their last two outright with a 21-24 loss to the Eagles as 7.5-point favorites and a 29-32 loss to the Chiefs as 2.5-point dogs. They were outgained by 55 yards by Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. Then they were fortunate to even be that close against the Chiefs considering they were held to 285 yards and outgained by 126 yards by the Chiefs. Kansas City also had a 34 to 15 edge in first downs.
Drew Brees looked to return too early from a rib injury that sidelined him for a handful of games. He completed just 15-of-34 (44%) of his passes against the Chiefs for 234 yards. It was all dink and dunk, and he clearly missed having Michael Thomas, who is on the IR. Not to mention he is without both Tre'quan Smith and Deonte Harris at receiver as well. The Saints are so thin at the position that they cannot be trusted to get margin here against a Vikings team that will keep coming due to their elite offense.
Minnesota has won three of its last four meetings with New Orleans. The Vikings are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games following two or more consecutive losses. They are winning outright by an average of 7.5 points per game in this spot. Zimmer is 14-3 ATS following two or more consecutive losses as the coach of Minnesota. The Saints are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games following an ATS loss. Minnesota is 38-14 ATS in its last 52 games following a SU loss. Take the Vikings Friday.
|12-21-20||Steelers v. Bengals +14.5||Top||17-27||Win||100||10 h 50 m||Show|
20* Steelers/Bengals ESPN No-Brainer on Cincinnati +14.5
This line has gotten out of hand. The Pittsburgh Steelers are now laying more than two touchdowns to the Bengals, and it's time to pull the trigger on Cincinnati. The Bengals will bring a big effort here knowing this is a Primetime game with their division rival coming to town.
It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Bengals, who have gone 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. They are coming off a misleading 7-30 loss to the Cowboys in which they lost fumbles on each of their first three possessions. I think it's safe to say that's not going to happen again. And keep in mind they outgained the Cowboys by 37 yards in that misleading loss.
There has been nothing misleading about Pittsburgh losing its last two games to Buffalo and Washington. They lost 17-23 at home to Washington as 5.5-point favorites and 15-26 at Buffalo as 2-point dogs. Their offense is broken right now as they have failed to reach 50 rushing yards in five of their last seven games. And their defense is banged up as the losses at LB of Bud Dupree and Devin Bush have really taken their toll.
Cincinnati has actually been playing its best defense of the season down the stretch. The Bengals have held three of their last four opponents to 20 points or fewer. And they just held the Cowboys to 272 total yards last week. Their defense can keep them in this game, and I expect their offense cant' be any worse than it has been in recent weeks. Ryan Finley started three games as a rookie in 2019, including a 16-10 loss to the Steelers. Getting a whole week of practice preparing to be the starter will help him succeed in this spot.
The Steelers are 0-6 ATS in their last six December games. The Bengals are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit home loss. Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games. The Bengals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss. Bet the Bengals Monday.
|12-20-20||Chiefs -3 v. Saints||Top||32-29||Push||0||74 h 2 m||Show|
20* Chiefs/Saints Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Kansas City -3
After failing to cover the spread in five consecutive games, it's time to 'buy low' on the Kansas City Chiefs as only 3-point favorites over the Saints. The Chiefs are the best team in the NFL and should be favored by 3 or more against any team in the NFL.
The Chiefs impressed me last week as they managed to beat the Dolphins despite committing four turnovers. They had 448 total yards against a good Miami defense. I was fortunate to get the cover with the Dolphins +7.5 in that game as they kicked a FG with 16 seconds left to only lose by 6. Kansas City is now 12-1 this season with 11 wins by 3 points or more.
The Saints are overvalued after winning nine of their last 10 and covering five of their last six coming in. But keep in mind that nine of those 10 games came against teams with losing record, so they have been feasting on an easy schedule. They finally had their winning streak snapped last week in an upset loss to the Eagles as 7.5-point favorites. They gave up 413 total yards to Jalen Hurts and the Eagles.
I know Drew Brees is expected to return this week, but I think he is coming back early from a terrible rib injury. He waited until his team finally lost and now is coming back. And now he won't have his favorite receiver in Michael Thomas, who has been place on IR and an ankle injury. Thomas was starting to really form a chemistry with Taysom Hill. He is arguably the best receiver in the NFL and without him I don't see the Saints being able to keep up with the Chiefs.
The Saints are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games after having won four of their last five games coming in. The Chiefs are 30-13 ATS in their last 43 games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of their last seven games coming in. The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Chiefs Sunday.
|12-20-20||Patriots v. Dolphins -1||12-22||Win||100||4 h 43 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Dolphins -1
The Miami Dolphins are 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall with one of those losses coming to the Kansas City Chiefs in which they covered. This team has been underrated all season and has made me a lot of money. And I'm going to continue to ride with them here against the Patriots.
The Dolphins are the team that has everything to play for right now at 8-5 on the season and not only alive for a wild card, but also the AFC East title. They have been winning behind one of the best defenses in the NFL that gives up just 18.8 points per game this season. And Tua Tagovailoa is getting comfortable in this offense, throwing for 296 yards against the Bengals and then 316 against the Chiefs in his last two games.
New England is 6-7 this season and basically eliminated from playoff contention. They had the wind lifted from their sails in a 3-24 loss to the Rams last week. And I question their level of motivation now this week here against the Miami Dolphins. I have no doubt the Dolphins will be the more motivated team, especially wanting to avenge their Week 1 loss at New England.
This Patriots offense is so pitiful that it cannot be trusted to do much against the Dolphins here. They are averaging just 230 yards per game in their last three games. They had 179 yards against the Cardinals, 291 against the Chargers and 220 against the Rams.
The Dolphins are 9-1 ATS when playing with six or less days' rest this season. Miami is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games. Miami is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game. These four trends combine for a 28-1 system backing Miami. Take the Dolphins Sunday.
|12-20-20||49ers v. Cowboys +3.5||33-41||Win||100||4 h 43 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Dallas Cowboys +3.5
Fading the depleted San Francisco 49ers here down the stretch has been a very profitable move. The 49ers are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. Yet here they are overvalued again laying 3.5 points on the road to the Dallas Cowboys. I'll gladly fade them again in this spot.
The 49ers have been hit so hard by injuries all season. And I think a big blow that is getting overlooked here is Deebo Samuel's injury. Samuel is their best playmaker on offense, and without him their offense has simply been vanilla. He returned recently and performed well with 11 receptions for 133 yards against the Rams three weeks ago, and six receptions for 73 yards against the Bills two weeks ago. But he left early against Washington last week and they struggled offensively with just 15 points.
While the 49ers have nothing but pride to play for the rest of the way, the Cowboys (4-9) are still alive in the pathetic NFC East. There is a good chance both the Giants and Washington lose this week as they are both nearly touchdown underdogs to the Browns and Seahawks, respectively. So this is a great opportunity for them to make up some more ground.
The Cowboys have gone 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall. They pulled the upset at Minnesota, nearly upset the Steelers, and they crushed the Bengals 30-7 last week. I like the momentum of this team right now and think they are flying way under the radar. I have the Cowboys lined as a favorite in this matchup given the motivation and the injury situation for the 49ers. So getting +3.5 at home here is an excellent value in a game the Cowboys should win outright.
The 49ers are 0-6 ATS vs. bad defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game this season. They are actually losing by 13.6 points per game in this spot. The Cowboys are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games as home underdogs. Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.
|12-19-20||Panthers +8 v. Packers||Top||16-24||Push||0||10 h 58 m||Show|
20* Panthers/Packers NFC No-Brainer on Carolina +8
This is the role I like backing the Carolina Panthers in. The Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as underdogs this season, while they are 0-3 ATS as a favorite this season. They have won four of those games as a dog outright. They also only lost to the Chiefs 31-33 as a 10-point dog. So they can hang with the Packers here.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Panthers, who have lost seven of their last eight straight up. But they continue to show up every week, and keep in mind that six of those seven losses came by only one score. So they have been competitive, and they will continue to fight hard for head coach Matt Rhule to close out the season. They are relishing this opportunity to face the No. 1 seed in the NFC in the Green Bay Packers and test themselves.
Conversely, it's a great time to 'sell high' on the Packers, who have won three striaght and five of their last six. They failed to cover as a 9.5-point favorite at Detroit last week, and they should not be favored by 8 points here over a Panthers team that just recently beat Detroit 20-0 for their last victory. This line should be under a touchdown, and we'll gladly take the 8 points with the Panthers.
Carolina is just 4-9 SU this season, but in seven of those losses the Panthers have had the ball late in the fourth quarter with a chance to win or send the game to overtime. "It's definitely a hump that we want to get over," Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater said. "We are capable of getting over it, but we have to execute when that situation comes. And that starts with me being better in those situations."
The Panthers will get a big boost with the return of WR D.J. Moore after he missed the Denver game last week due to COVID-19. Moore has 50 catches for 924 yards and four touchdowns this season. He has been Bridgewater's go-to guy and makes a big difference for this offense. I don't think his return is being factored into this line enough.
Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Green Bay) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against an opponent off two straight games where they committed one or fewer turnovers are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Green Bay) - off a divisional road win, a top team winning 75% or more of their games in the second half of the season are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
The Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games. As stated before, the Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as underdogs. The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a SU win. Roll with the Panthers Saturday.
|12-17-20||Chargers +3 v. Raiders||Top||30-27||Win||100||10 h 39 m||Show|
20* Chargers/Raiders AFC West No-Brainer on Los Angeles +3
There's going to be some value with the Chargers here down the stretch due to their 4-9 record. They finally got a win Sunday over the Falcons to give them some positive vibes moving forward. And now they want to end their 9-game losing streak against AFC West opponents and get revenge on the Raiders here Thursday night.
The Chargers are so much better than their 4-9 record would indicate. All three of their AFC West losses this season have come down to the final play. They lost on Harison Butker's 58-yard field goal against the Chiefs, lost on Drew Lock's TD to K.J. Hamler and lost to the Raiders when Justin Herbert's TD pass to Donald Parham was overturned on replay. Of the Charger's 20 losses over the past two seasons, 16 have been by one score. They are simply unlucky.
The numbers show the Chargers are the better team. They are averaging 383.0 yards per game on offense and giving up just 337.1 yards per game on defense this season, outgaining opponents by 45.9 yards per game. The Raiders average 369.2 yards per game on offense and give up 384.1 yards per game on defense, getting outgained by 14.9 yards per game.
The Chargers were the better team in their first meeting and should have beaten the Raiders, too. Los Angeles outgained Las Vegas 440 to 320 in that game, or by 120 yards. The Chargers have by far the superior defense in this matchup. They have now allowed 351 or fewer yards in eight consecutive games coming in.
The Raiders are playing awful right now. They are 1-3 SU in their last four games and would be on a four-game losing streak if not for the hail mary against the winless Jets to win 31-28. Their defense is allowing 37.5 points per game during this stretch, which led to the firing of defensive coordinator Paul Guenther.
But it's not going to make much of a difference here with all of the key pieces the Raiders are missing on defense. They are without several starters including DE Clelin Ferrell, LB Nicholas MOrrow, CB Trayvon Mullen and S Johnathan Abram. They have allowed over 200 rushing yards in consecutive games against the Jets and Colts. And they simply cannot get pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Justin Herbert is going to have a field day. He threw for 326 yards and two touchdowns in his first meeting with the Raiders. Austin Ekeler is back healthy at RB and should have a monster game as well.
Plays on underdogs or PK (LA Chargers) - after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of two straight games against an opponent that is off a loss by 10 points or more are 75-36 (67.6%) ATS since 1983. The Chargers are 32-15-4 ATS in their last 51 games as road underdogs. Bet the Chargers Thursday.
|12-14-20||Ravens v. Browns UNDER 46.5||Top||47-42||Loss||-110||9 h 56 m||Show|
20* Ravens/Browns ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 46.5
This will be the 2nd meeting between the Ravens and Browns this season. I always like to look to the UNDER in the 2nd meeting between teams in a division rivalry because they are so familiar with one another. They are able to make adjustments from the first meeting, and those adjustments almost always favor the defenses.
Weather will play a factor here as well, which is a big reason I'm on the UNDER. It's going to be 30 degrees with 15 to 25 MPH winds are kickoff tonight in Cleveland. And we've seen how wind and cold weather has affected the scoring conditions in these Cleveland home games recently.
Indeed, the UNDER is 3-0 in Cleveland's last three home games. They lost to the Raiders 6-16 for 22 combined points, beat the Texans 10-7 for 17 combined points and beat the Eagles 22-17 for 39 combined points. The UNDER is 3-0 in Baltimore's last three road games with combined scores of 34, 40 and 33 points as well.
These are two of the best rushing offenses in the NFL as well. The Ravens average 33 attempts for 169 yards per game on the ground, while the Browns average 32 attempts for 158 yards per game. So both teams are going to run the football a lot, especially with the winds, and that will keep the clock moving and make the game fly right by.
Both defenses have been above average at stopping the run, too. The Ravens give up 112 rushing yards per game, while the Browns allow just 104 rushing yards per game. In their first meeting, the Browns held the Ravens to 107 rushing yards on 30 attempts. Cleveland had 138 yards on 27 attempts but fell way behind early. This rematch should be much closer, which will have both teams sticking to their running games.
Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 42.5 to 49 points (Cleveland) - off an upsset win as an underdog, a top level team that wins 75% or more of their games are 70-29 (70.7%) since 1983. There's so much at stake here in terms of the playoff race that this game will be played close to the vest. Look for it to go well UNDER the number. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
|12-13-20||Steelers v. Bills -2||Top||15-26||Win||100||12 h 23 m||Show|
20* Steelers/Bills NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Buffalo -2
The Buffalo Bills came back from their bye week pissed off from their hail mary loss to the Cardinals. If not for that play, the Bills would be on a six-game winning streak. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall and playing their best football of the season. And now they are ready to prove they are Super Bowl contenders by knocking off the Steelers tonight.
The Bills came back from their bye and crushed the Chargers 27-17. Then they went on the road last week and made easy work of the 49ers in a 34-24 win as 2-point dogs. They racked up 449 total yards against a very good San Francisco defense. Josh Allen threw for 375 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in the win. What more does this guy have to do to be mentioned among the best quarterbacks in the NFL?
The Bills are remarkably healthy right now due to that bye week. And their defense is getting back to being the same dominant unit that it was a year ago. And that's what makes this team so scary now. They have an elite offense and an above average defense now that they are healthy in the secondary on that side of the ball, which hasn't been the case for much of the season.
While the Bills are healthy, injuries are mounting up for the Steelers. They are extremely thin at LB now without Bud Dupree and Devin Bush, plus Vince Williams and Robert Spillane are out for this game. CB Joe Haden is out and CB Steven Nelson is questionable, leaving the Steelers extremely thin in the secondary and at linebacker. The Bills should be able to do whatever they want to against the Steelers here.
It's also a terrible spot for the Steelers. They had their bye week stolen from them early in the season, and now they are a very tired team because of it. They will be playing their 3rd game in 12 days here after playing Baltimore last Wednesday and Washington on Monday. They blew a 14-0 lead over Washington as Alex Smith diced up their secondary, leading Washington to a 23-17 victory. And I always like fading teams after they've had a long winning streak come to an end. Pittsburgh's perfect season is no longer, and I think they could have a hangover effect here against the Bills.
Buffalo is 9-2 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. Pittsburgh is 0-5 ATS in its last five December games. The Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite. The spot, injuries and momentum all favor the Bills in this matchup tonight. Bet the Bills Sunday.
|12-13-20||Chiefs v. Dolphins +7.5||33-27||Win||100||91 h 21 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Dolphins +7.5
The Miami Dolphins are now 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. They have been the most profitable team in the NFL to back over the past two months. And it still feels like they are getting no respect here as 7.5-point home underdogs to the Kansas City Chiefs.
It hasn’t mattered whether it has been Ryan Fitzpatrick or Tua at quarterback. The Dolphins keep winning because they play team football and tremendous defense. They give up just 17.7 points per game this season and have forced at least one turnover in all 12 games. They just do everything fundamentally sound, which is the sign of a great head coach in Brian Flores.
The Chiefs continue to be overvalued week after week due to winning the Super Bowl last year and with an 11-1 record. They have now gone 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. Although they have won all four games SU, all four wins have come by 6 points or less. They have bene life and death with the Panthers, Raiders and Broncos during this stretch. And it’s not like any of those teams are any good.
It just feels like the Chiefs are going through the motions right now and just ready to get to the playoffs. They already have the AFC West locked up. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are still fighting to win the AFC East. They are just one game back of the Buffalo Bills for 1st place in their division. They are the team playing like their pants are on fire right now, not the Chiefs.
Kansas City is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games after gaining 400 or more total yards in three consecutive games. Miami is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games overall dating back to last season. The Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games. Miami is 13-3 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last two seasons. The Dolphins are 9-1 ATS off two or more consecutive unders over the last three years. Take the Dolphins Sunday.
|12-13-20||Vikings v. Bucs -6.5||Top||14-26||Win||100||91 h 21 m||Show|
25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Bucs -6.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers really needed a bye last week after going 12 straight weeks without one. Now they’ll be rejuvenated to bounce back from two straight losses to the Chiefs and Rams by 3 points each. And a bye will help a team like the Bucs more than most just because they have so many new faces this year on offense for Tom Brady to try and form a chemistry with.
Now the Bucs take on a Vikings team that was very fortunate to win their last two games against the lowly Panthers and Jaguars. They needed a last-second TD to beat the Panthers 28-27, and they needed overtime to beat the Jaguars 27-24. That’s a Jaguars team that has now lost 11 straight. And don’t forget they were upset by the Cowboys the week prior as a 7-point home favorite.
This is a Vikings defense that Tom Brady and company should light up. Minnesota gives up 27.4 points and 382.7 yards per game this season. This feels like a game Kirk Cousins is going to have to be a gun slinger to try and keep up, and that’s exactly the type of game that I like to fade the Vikings in because Cousins is terrible when he has to do it all.
The key to stopping the Vikings is stopping Dalvin Cook, and there’s no team in the NFL better equipped to do that than the Bucs. They lead the NFL in rushing defense, giving up just 74 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry. They also rank near the top of the league in total defense, allowing just 329.9 yards per game.
Plays on any team (Tampa Bay) - a good offensive team (5.4 to 5.8 YPP) against a team with a terrible defense (5.8 YPP or more), after being outgained by 100 or more total yards in their previous game are 36-7 (83.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bruce Arians is 13-4 ATS off a home loss as a head coach. Arians is also 21-9 ATS in December games as a head coach. Bet the Bucs Sunday.
|12-10-20||Patriots v. Rams -4.5||Top||3-24||Win||100||10 h 56 m||Show|
20* Patriots/Rams Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Los Angeles -4.5
The Los Angeles Rams have the best stats in the entire NFL this season. They are 8-4 SU & 7-5 ATS this season but the numbers on offense and defense tell the story. They are gaining 395.3 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play on offense while giving up just 291.6 yards per game and 4.9 per play on defense. They are outgaining their opponents by 103.4 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play this season, both the best numbers in the NFL.
The racked up 463 yards on the Cardinals last week and held them to just 232 yards, outgaining them by 231 yards. It was as an impressive performance as I’ve seen this season from them. And don’t forget they just beat the Bucs and Seahawks recently as well, so they have been playing great against some of the best teams in the NFL.
The Patriots aren’t one of those best teams. They are very fortunate to be 6-6 this season. Their last two wins over the Cardinals and Chargers were fraudulent final scores. They were outgained by 119 yards by the Cardinals and held to just 179 total yards, but found a way to win 20-17. And last week they only managed 291 total yards and only outgained the Chargers by 33 yards in their 45-0 win, which featured several big plays on special teams.
Cam Newton threw for just 84 yards and 4.0 YPA against the Cardinals and 69 yards and 3.0 YPA against the Chargers. They just can’t keep winning with him playing so poorly, especially not here in this huge step up in class against a motivated Rams team that is trying to win the NFC West. Adding to their motivation is their loss to the Patriots in the Super Bowl a few years back, which several players on this team clearly have not forgotten. They will be looking for revenge tonight.
“That’s just a loss,” DT Aaron Donald said. “I try to not thing about the loss. But you know, this is definitely a game that’s going to give you a little bit more push just for a little payback.”
With Newton struggling to throw the football, the Patriots have relied on their rushing attack, which ranks third in the NFL at 150.9 yards per game. Well, the Rams are equipped to stop them. They have the league’s third-best rushing defense, allowing just 93.1 yards per game on the ground. Los Angeles hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher all season long.
Sean McVay is a perfect 8-0 ATS after a dominant performance with 34-plus minutes of time of possession and 24 or more first downs last game as the coach of the Rams. The Patriots are 1-6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win. Bet the Rams Thursday.
|12-08-20||Cowboys +8 v. Ravens||17-34||Loss||-110||11 h 47 m||Show|
15* Cowboys/Ravens FOX ANNIHILATOR on Dallas +8
The spot really favors the Dallas Cowboys tonight. They’ve had nearly two weeks to get ready for Baltimore after last playing Washington on Thanksgiving. Meanwhile, the Ravens come in on a short week after playing the Steelers on Wednesday last week. The Cowboys will be the fresher, more prepared team for this one.
The Ravens have lost a lot of practice time with many of the players that will be playing tonight as well due to Covid-19. They will get several players back for this game, including QB Lamar Jackson, but they won’t be sharp due to the lack of practice. And it’s not like they were playing very well with him anyway.
Indeed, the Ravens are 1-4 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall. They were upset by the Steelers, Patriots and Titans. They have been outgained in three of their last four games, getting outgained by a total of 256 yards in those four games combined. And they still are missing several key players for this one.
There’s clearly value with the Cowboys here tonight. They go from 3-point favorites over Washington to now 8-point dogs to Baltimore. That’s an 11-point adjustment. They have thrived in this big underdog role in recent weeks, too. They nearly beat Pittsburgh outright in a 19-24 loss as a 14-point dog three games back. And they did upset Minnesota 31-28 as a 7-point road dog two games ago.
Dallas is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite. Baltimore is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss. It’s asking a lot for the Ravens to win this game by more than a touchdown given the awful spot for them and the great one for Dallas tonight. Bet the Cowboys Tuesday.
|12-07-20||Washington Football Team +7 v. Steelers||Top||23-17||Win||100||68 h 49 m||Show|
20* Washington/Pittsburgh FOX No-Brainer on Washington +7
This is an awful spot for the Pittsburgh Steelers for a number of reasons. For starters, they will be playing on a short week after having to play the Ravens on Wednesday after the game was pushed back a couple different times due to Covid-19. The Steelers really haven’t even had a bye week as it was interrupted by the Titans earlier this year. So they have to be a tired team right now.
You are paying a tax to back the Steelers right now too because they are still undefeated at 11-0 on the season. And now the Steelers just lost starting LB Bud Dupree to a torn ACL against the Ravens. That’s an even bigger loss now considering they were already playing without fellow starting LB Devin Bush. Those two guys are the keys to their defense in the middle. RB James Connor, DE Stehpon Tuitt and C Maurkice Pouncey are all questionable this week due to Covid-19 as well.
Meanwhile, Washington comes in rested after playing last Thursday on Thanksgiving and will be fresh and ready to go. Washington will also be motivated as they sit atop the NFC East standings tied with the Giants, but they are in second place due to losing both head-to-head meetings. So they need wins more right now than the Giants do.
And they are playing like it. Washington is 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six games overall with all three losses coming by 3 points or less and by a combined 7 points. And the three wins all came in blowout fashion with a 25-3 win over Dallas, a 20-9 win over Cincinnati and another 41-16 win over Dallas.
Alex Smith has given the offense new life since taking over for an injury Kyle Allen four weeks ago. He has topped 300 yards passing twice, and in the other two games he didn’t Washington got its running game going with 164 yards against the Bengals and 182 more against Dallas. So this offense is showing some versatility.
But what really makes Washington a great bet week in and week out is a defense that is one of the most underrated in the NFL. They are giving up just 22.1 points and 309.5 yards per game. They have arguably the best defensive line in the NFL, which is going to be key here against a Steelers team that only likes to throw the football because they cannot run it. The Steelers only average 99 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry this season.
Ron Rivera is 45-21 ATS after playing his last game on the road in all games as a head coach. Mike Tomlin is 7-17 ATS after having won eight or more of their last 10 games as the coach of the Steelers. This is also a sandwich spot for the Steelers after beating their biggest rivals in the Ravens 19-14 last week and now having another huge game on deck at Buffalo in AFC action next week. This is definitely a game that Washington can win outright tonight given the favorable spot for them and the awful spot for Pittsburgh. Bet Washington Monday.
|12-06-20||Rams v. Cardinals +3||38-28||Loss||-120||43 h 55 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Arizona Cardinals +3
I lost with Arizona last week. And because they lost to the Patriots, there is even more value with them this week. They outgained the Patriots by 119 yards and held them to 179 yards but found a way to lose. Their kicker has not cost them two games this year as he missed a 45-yarder which allowed the Patriots to go down and kick the game-winning 50-yarder at the buzzer.
The Cardinals were also stopped twice from the 1-yard line right before halftime which turned out to be a 7-point swing. And they had a phantom late hit on Cam Newton on the final drive on a 3rd-and-13 that set the Patriots up in field goal range. They really deserved to win that game. But now that the Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, this is a great ‘buy low’ spot on them.
I don’t know how Jared Goff can be trusted as a road favorite here. The Rams had four turnovers again last week and just 308 total yards in a 20-23 upset loss to the 49ers. Goff goes hot and cold, but Kyler Murray shows up every week and I trust him more. The Cardinals want serious revenge from six straight losses to the Rams in this series as well.
Arizona is 30-15 ATS in its last 45 home games off a loss by 6 points or less. The Cardinals are 47-26 ATS in their last 73 home games off two or more consecutive losses. Arizona is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog. The Cardinals have just two losses in 11 games by more than 3 points this season, and both came on the road to the Panthers and Seahawks.
Plays on underdogs or PK (Arizona) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games in the second half of the season are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS since 1983. Roll with the Cardinals Sunday.
|12-06-20||Browns +5.5 v. Titans||Top||41-35||Win||100||40 h 50 m||Show|
25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Browns +5.5
The Tennessee Titans are overvalued after winning in upset fashion in back-to-back weeks over the Ravens and Colts. Now they are 5.5-point favorites here against a Cleveland Browns team with the same record (8-3) as them. It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Titans this week.
The Titans took advantage of a banged-up Colts team last week that was missing several key players on defense and offense due to either injury or Covid-19. So their 45-26 blowout win has them overvalued, and now they are asking to get margin here against the Browns.
The Titans are just 2-5 ATS as favorites this season. One of those covers was as a 6.5-point favorite over the Bears in a 7-point win. The other was as 3.5-point favorites over the Texans where they won by 6 in overtime. So they haven’t won a single game as a favorite by more than one score all season.
It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Browns, who are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. But they have gone 4-2 SU during this stretch. And they deserved to cover against the Jaguars last week but let them in the back door after a phantom roughing the passer penalty in a 27-25 win. They took the Jaguars for granted, but they won’t do the same this week. They’ll go back to feeling disrespected here and give their best effort.
The Browns get their best defensive player in Myles Garret back from Covid-19 this week after he missed the past few games. He’ll wreak havoc on a banged-up Titans offensive line that is starting backups at both tackle positions. And they are also missing key blocker and receiver Jonnu Smith at tight end. Guard Rodger Safford is also questionable at guard.
Stopping the run is the key to stopping the Titans and Derrick Henry. The Browns have done a good job of that this season in allowing 108 rushing yards per game. The Titans haven’t really stopped anyone. They are giving up 25.9 points and 384.1 yards per game on the season.
The Browns have one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL at 161 yards per game and 5.0 per carry. And they even played without Nick Chubb for several games, but he’s back healthy and doing his thing now alongside Kareem Hunt. The Titans give up 116 rushing yards per game. Tennessee is also 31st in pressure rate, so Baker Mayfield will have time to throw the ball and make plays through the air. Mayfield is averaging 9.7 yards per game in his three games against teams that rank in the Bottom 5 in pressure rate this season.
The Titans are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games off an upset win by 14 points or more as a road underdog. Tennessee is 19-35 ATS in its last 54 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. The underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Cleveland is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Browns Sunday.
|12-06-20||Saints v. Falcons +3||Top||21-16||Loss||-115||40 h 50 m||Show|
20* NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons +3
It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the New Orleans Saints this week. They have won eight straight games coming in and have covered four in a row as well. And they are coming off a 31-3 win over the Denver Broncos, who didn’t have a quarterback last week.
But this Saints offense hasn’t done much with Taysom Hill as their starter. They only managed 292 total yards against the Broncos last week. And the Falcons should be a lot better against him having just faced him two weeks ago in their 24-9 loss.
The Falcons got out to a 9-3 lead but had to settle for field goals on each of their first three scoring drives. The Saints took over in the second half and dominated. The Falcons have not forgotten, and they want revenge in a big way here. There’s a nice system on teams facing each other twice in three weeks. The team that lost the first meeting has gone 19-4 ATS in the last 23 in the second meeting.
The Falcons are still playing hard for Raheem Morris and have gone 4-2 with him as their interim coach with one of those a 1-point loss. They are coming off a 43-6 beat down of the Raiders last week that really showed their potential. And now they are expected to get Julio Jones back in the lineup this week from a hamstring injury after he was forced out of the Saints game last time.
The injury situation is not great for the Saints. They have key injuries at cornerback, defensive line and offensive line. They will be without CB Janoris Jenkins and could be without CB Patrick Robinson. DE Marcus Davenport is out, and T Terron Armstead is out with Covid-19. DT Sheldon Rankins is questionable as well. And obviously Hill is a downgrade from Brees at QB.
The Falcons are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as a home underdog. Atlanta is 4-0 ATS in its last four December games. Take the Falcons Sunday.
|12-02-20||Ravens v. Steelers -10||14-19||Loss||-110||4 h 5 m||Show|
15* Ravens/Steelers AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -10
The Baltimore Ravens will be one of the worst teams in the NFL for one game tonight with all they are missing due to Covid-19. And with the Steelers being the best team in the NFL to this point at 10-0 and chasing a perfect season, they should have no problem putting away the Ravens by double-digits today.
The Steelers already hate the Ravens, but that hatred will be even deeper today for the way the Ravens have messed with their schedule this season due to Covid-19. They lost a bye week because of it and want to make a statement here. And winning by margin hasn’t been a problem the last few weeks as they have won by 26 over Cincinnati and by 24 over Jacksonville. Baltimore is a team on Cincinnati and Jacksonville’s level right now with all they are missing.
The Ravens will be without QB Lamar Jackson, TE Mark Andrews, LB Matthew Judos, WR Willie Snead, LS Morgan Cox, S Geno Stone, G Matt Skura, DE Jihad Ward, G Patrick Mekari, LB Pernell McPhee, RB Mark Ingram, RB JK Dobbins DT Justin Madubuike, DT Brandon Williams, TE Nick Boyle, T Ronnie Stanley and DE Calais Campbell tonight. Almost all of those players played against the Steelers in their 24-28 loss in the first meeting.
The Steelers got good news on the injury front with WR JuJu Smith-Schuster and TE Vance McDonald both expected to play. They will be missing RB James Conner, but they haven’t been able to run the football all season, so that won’t be an issue. They have just been throwing on teams at will with Comeback Player of the Year candidate Ben Roethlisberger having one of his best seasons as a pro. And the Steelers have one of the top defenses in the NFL, giving up just 17.4 points per game this season.
Washed up Robert Griffin III will get the start at QB for the Ravens, and the Steelers will make life hell on him for four quarters. Pittsburgh is 9-1 ATS vs. awful passing defenses like Baltimore that allow 64% completions or worse over the last two seasons. The Ravens are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a SU loss. The Ravens weren’t even playing good when healthy, going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall. Take the Steelers Wednesday.
|11-30-20||Seahawks v. Eagles +5.5||Top||23-17||Loss||-105||57 h 43 m||Show|
20* Seahawks/Eagles ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia +5.5
We’re buying at the lowest possible point here on the Philadelphia Eagles. They are coming off back-to-back losses to the Giants and Browns and now are catching 5.5 points at home to the Seattle Seahawks. And now the Eagles are finally out of first place in the NFC East so they need to be playing with a sense of urgency this week. I just love the spot for them.
And the Eagles have played their best football at home this season. They have just one loss by more than 2 points in their five home games this season. They have gotten a lot healthier on offense in recent weeks, and their defense is still playing at a very high level.
Indeed, the Eagles are allowing just 342.7 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play this season. They have the far superior defense in this matchup. The Seahawks give up 28.7 points per game, 434.9 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play. That’s why it is tough to trust them to get margin because the back door is always open against them with their pathetic defense.
Seattle is 7-3 this season but five of those wins came by a single score and the other two were against the Falcons in Week 1 and the 49ers a few weeks back when they were an injury-ravaged team. The Seahawks are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three road games with losses to the Cardinals by 3, the Bills by 10 and the Rams by 7.
Philadelphia is 40-22 ATS in its last 62 home games after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three games coming in. Bet the Eagles Monday.
|11-29-20||49ers +7 v. Rams||Top||23-20||Win||100||29 h 33 m||Show|
20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on San Francisco 49ers +7
This is a great spot to ‘buy low’ on the San Francisco 49ers, who have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall. But those losses came against three of the best teams in the NFL in the Seahawks, Packers and Saints. And they were more competitive than the scores showed in all three. They actually outgained the Saints by 44 yards and the Seahawks by 1 yard, and they were only outgained by 68 yards by the Packers.
Now the 49ers come off their bye week, and they needed a bye more than anyone with all of their injuries. And they will be getting some key pieces back this week in WR Samuel, CB Sherman, RB Mostert and DT Kinlaw. And they already beat the Rams 24-16 as 2-point home underdogs in their first meeting this season. Now they are 7-point road dogs in the rematch, which is simply too high.
It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Rams after back-to-back wins and covers over the Seahawks and Bucs. Now the Rams will be on a short week here after winning in Tampa Bay on Monday Night Football. They are at a huge rest disadvantage here facing a 49ers team off their bye. And they are feeling fat and happy after beating both of those teams. This has letdown spot written all over it.
The 49ers are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take the 49ers Sunday.
|11-29-20||Chargers v. Bills OVER 52.5||Top||17-27||Loss||-110||25 h 28 m||Show|
25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Chargers/Bills OVER 52.5
This game has shootout written all over it between the Los Angeles Chargers and Buffalo Bills Sunday. These are two of the best offenses in the NFL, especially when it comes to throwing the football. They are the 2nd and 3rd passing offenses in the league. And the conditions will be prime for scoring in Buffalo for this time of year with 46 degrees and 10 MPH winds at kickoff forecasted.
This Buffalo offense is hitting on all cylinders right now. They are scoring 27.2 points per game on the season and are coming off 44 and 30-point efforts against the Seahawks and Cardinals, respectively. Now their offense should torch a Los Angeles Chargers defense that has allowed at least 28 points in seven consecutive games.
That includes 29 points to the Jaguars, 31 to the Broncos, 29 to the Dolphins and 28 to the Jets. Those are the 21st, 27th, 29th and 32nd offenses in the NFL this season, so they are giving up big points against even poor offenses. So you can imagine what the Bills are going to do to them, especially with the Chargers being without four key defenders in DE Ingram, CB Hayward, CB Harris and LB Nwosu. They allow 27.3 points per game on the season.
But the Chargers have the offense to make up for their poor defense. Justin Herbert is the Rookie of the Year right now with what he is doing in the passing game. He is guiding the Chargers to 26.0 points per game this season. He is completing 68% of his passes for 2,699 yards with a 22-to-6 TD/INT ratio this year. And there’s a good chance he gets back a huge weapon this week in RB Austin Ekeler.
The OVER is 7-0 in Chargers last seven games overall with combined scores of 69, 57, 68, 61, 57, 50 and 62 points. That’s an average of 60.5 combined points per game. This 52.5-point total isn’t nearly high enough today for these two games as we should see 60-plus combined points here. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|11-29-20||Cardinals -125 v. Patriots||17-20||Loss||-125||25 h 28 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Arizona Cardinals ML -125
I like this spot for the Arizona Cardinals. They have failed to cover the spread in each of their last three games even though they were competitive in all three, so this is a ‘buy low’ opportunity. All three games came against the Dolphins, Bills and Seahawks who are all playoff teams currently. Now they get extra rest after losing a tough one to the Seahawks last Thursday in what was a bad spot for them.
Now they face a New England Patriots team that just can’t keep any momentum going. The Patriots’ shot to make the playoffs went by the wayside last week as they were upset by the Houston Texans. Now I can’t see them playing with much passion here against the Cardinals this week sitting at 4-6 on the season and out of the playoff race.
Not to mention, the Patriots haven’t been playing good football for months. They are 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall with their only good performance coming in an upset win over Baltimore in a monsoon. And clearly the Ravens are struggling over the last month too, so that win doesn’t look as good now. Their other six games were all poor performances.
The Patriots don’t have much speed on defense, so they struggle against speedy teams like the Cardinals. That was evident against the speed of the Texans last week. And it will be again this week against Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins and company. Plus the weather is going to be perfect in New England, which favors the Cardinals. It’s supposed to be 50 degrees with only 6 MPH winds at kickoff.
The Patriots give up 6.4 yards per play defensively while the Cardinals give up just 5.7 yards per play. The Cardinals average 6.3 yards per play on offense while the Patriots only average 5.8 yards per play. Arizona is outgaining its opponents by 0.6 yards per play this season, while New England is getting outgained by 0.6 yards per play.
The Cardinals are simply better everywhere and should be at least favored by a field goal minimum here. Arizona is 9-3-2 ATS in its last 14 road games. The Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with the Cardinals Sunday.
|11-26-20||Washington Football Team +3 v. Cowboys||Top||41-16||Win||100||52 h 42 m||Show|
20* Cowboys/Washington Thanksgiving Day FEAST on Washington +3
The Washington Football Team has quietly outgained five straight opponents by a combined a combined 549 yards, or by an average of 109.8 yards per game. They are playing their best football of the season with Alex Smith at quarterback. He has thrown for 881 yards in his last three games overall.
But what you really have to like about Washington is their defense, which has been one of the best units in the NFL this season. They give up just 22.7 points and 315.8 yards per game on the year. This defense limited the Cowboys to just 142 total yards in their first meeting, outgaining them by 255 yards in their 25-3 victory. I expect more of the same here. And there’s value with Washington considering the line was PK in the first meeting and now it’s +3.
The Cowboys are now getting too much respect from oddsmakers after covering their last two games against the Steelers as 14-point dogs and the Vikings as 7-point dogs. But they were fortunate to beat the Vikings last week because they were outgained by 54 yards and their pathetic defense still gave up 430 yards to the Vikings in the win.
And that’s where the advantage for Washington lies here is on the defensive side of the ball. The Cowboys give up 31.8 points and 386.4 yards per game this season. They can’t stop the run as they give up 154 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry. And Washington is going to be able to run the ball with Antonio Gibson, who had 430 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 4.5 per carry this season.
Washington is 20-5 ATS in its last 25 games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 6 or more yards per play in the second half of the season. Dallas is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games with a line of +3 to -3. The Cowboys are 1-7 ATS vs. NFC opponents this season. Dallas is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a favorite. The underdog is 28-13 ATS in the last 41 meetings. Bet Washington Thursday.
|11-26-20||Texans -2.5 v. Lions||41-25||Win||100||48 h 37 m||Show|
15* Texans/Lions Early Afternoon APPETIZER on Houston -2.5
The Houston Texans got off to a 1-6 start this season because they played the toughest schedule in the NFL up to that point. Their six losses were against the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers, Vikings, Titans and Packers. But they’ve started to play up to their potential now with the schedule easing up.
Indeed, the Texans are 2-1 SU in their last three games overall with their only loss coming on the road to the Browns 7-10 in terrible conditions as 4-point dogs. They beat the Jaguars on the road and last week topped the Patriots 27-20 at home. Deshaun Watson is having a monster season still and I trust him to get the job done here. Watson is completing 68.9% of his passes for 2,883 yards with a 20-to-5 TD/INT ratio this season, while also rushing for 269 yards and two scores.
The Detroit Lions have some terrible losses this season and are just 4-6 on the year. Their six losses have come by an average of 14.2 points per game. And three of their four wins have come by 3 points or less. So they are close to being a 1-9 football team. They sure looked the part last week when they were upset 20-0 on the road by the Carolina Panthers.
That was a Panthers team playing without Teddy Bridgewater. And the Lions just got worked. They managed just 185 yards of total offense in the loss against a Panthers defense that had given up 46 points to the Bucs the week prior. A big reason for the Lions’ struggles was all their injuries on offense, and it’s not going to get much better this week.
The Lions were without three of their best playmakers in Kenny Golloday, Danny Amendola and D’Andre Swift last week, and all three are questionable to return. Matthew Stafford didn’t take a single snap in practice last week because of a thumb injury, and he played with that injured thumb against the Panthers. And it’s not going to get much better for the Lions offensively on a short week this week.
Watson should be able to light up a Detroit defense that gives up 28.7 points and 397.4 yards per game this season. The Lions are 0-6 ATS after gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards last game over the last two seasons. Detroit is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games overall. The Lions are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their previous game. Take the Texans Thursday.
|11-23-20||Rams v. Bucs -3||Top||27-24||Loss||-130||155 h 39 m||Show|
25* MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Bucs -3
The Tampa Bay Bucs are clearly one of the best teams in the NFL. Their 38-3 loss to the Saints a couple weeks ago was an aberration. They’ve won four of their last five games overall with three of those wins coming by 23 points or more. They will handle the Rams on Monday Night Football.
Tom Brady came back motivated last week off that loss to the Saints and showed what he could do with all the weapons he has. They beat the Panthers 46-23 and it wasn’t even that close. They racked up 544 total yards and held the Panthers to 187, outgaining them by 357 yards. It was the most lopsided box score of the entire season in the NFL. And the Bucs didn’t have to punt once. Now Brady wants to redeem himself on the National TV stage here against the Rams. He leads a Bucs offense that is putting up 29.6 points per game this season.
The Bucs also have one of the best defenses in the NFL. They give up just 22.6 points and 300.3 yards per game. Now they’ll be facing an overrated Rams offense that cannot be trusted. The Rams only scored 23 points against the Seahawks last week in what was a perfect spot for them coming off their bye week. The Seahawks have been getting burnt defensively all season, and their defense actually looked pretty good in that game.
Goff isn’t very good when he is pressured, and the Bucs can get pressure. Not to mention Goff will likely be without LT Andrew Whitworth, who had to leave the game last week with a knee injury. And this is now a bad spot for the Rams having to make their 5th cross country trip of the season. No team in the NFL has flown more miles than the Rams this year. Los Angeles is 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS on the road this season with losses to the Bills, 49ers and Dolphins. Their only two road wins came against poor NFC East teams in Philadelphia and Washington.
The Rams are 23-47 ATS in their last 70 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Los Angels is 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 games as an underdog. Tampa Bay is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 games after scoring 35 or more points last game. Bet the Bucs Monday.
|11-22-20||Cowboys +7.5 v. Vikings||31-28||Win||100||119 h 28 m||Show|
15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Dallas Cowboys +7.5
This is a great ‘buy low’ spot on the Dallas Cowboys, who are just 2-7 SU & 1-8 ATS this season. They were either favored or a PK in six of their first seven games this season. But now they’ve been an underdog in their last two and a double-digit dog at that. And they should have covered both.
The Cowboys lost 9-23 to Philadelphia as 10-point dogs two games back and held the Eagles to just 222 total yards. But they had a fumble returned for a TD when they were only down 6 points late and driving for the winning score. And last time out they only lost 19-24 to the Steelers as 14-point dogs. They led most the way and deserved to beat the unbeaten Steelers.
Now the Cowboys are in a great spot this week coming off their bye week. They are ready to make a second half playoff run because when they look up at the NFC East standings they see that they are clearly right in the thick of the race despite their 2-7 record. That should have them rejuvenated coming off their bye. And they should be a lot healthier here too, plus they are expected to get Andy Dalton back at quarterback.
While it’s a great spot for the Cowboys, it’s a terrible one for the Vikings. They will be working on a short week here after a physical game against the Bears on Monday Night Football. And it’s a good ’sell high’ spot on the Vikings coming off three straight wins and covers. Now the Vikings are 7.5-point favorites here. They haven’t been more than a 4-point favorite in any other game this season, which shows they are now overvalued.
Dallas is 7-0 ATS vs. poor passing defenses that allow 260 or more passing yards per game after 8-plus games over the last three seasons. The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their previous game over the last three years. They are winning by 17.5 points per game in this spot. Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.
|11-22-20||Dolphins -3 v. Broncos||Top||13-20||Loss||-100||119 h 8 m||Show|
20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Dolphins -3
We keep backing the Miami Dolphins, and they keep on covering because oddsmakers and the betting public just don’t want to give them the respect they deserve. And I feel they are still being disrespected as only 3-point road favorites over the Broncos this week. The Dolphins are 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS this season and fighting for an AFC East title.
The Dolphins are underrated because they play great defense. They are only giving up 20.2 points per game this season. The offense has put up 28, 34 and 29 points in the three games started by Tua Tagovailoa. I don’t believe he’s a downgrade from Ryan Fitzpatrick, and the playbook actually gets bigger with Tua under center.
The Broncos are a mess right now. They have lost three of their last four and weren’t even competitive in any of the three losses. They were fortunate to come back from a 24-3 deficit to beat the Chargers in their only win. And keep in mind the Chargers were 3-point favorites over the Broncos in that game. The Dolphins are a lot better than the Chargers, and they proved that last week with their 29-21 win that wasn’t even as close as the final score. So they should be more than 3-point favorites here.
Justin Herbert had thrown for at least 250 yards in every game as a starter until he ran into this Dolphins defense. Herbert only went 20-of-32 for 187 yards against the Dolphins, and no Charger receiver managed even 40 receiving yards. This Miami defense is going to feast on Drew Lock or whoever starts for the Broncos this week.
Denver has committed at least one turnover in 16 consecutive games now. Lock threw four interceptions in their 12-37 road loss to the Las Vegas Raiders last week. And this Broncos defense has been pitiful, giving up at least 100 rushing yards in five of its last six, including 200-plus in two of the last three. The Dolphins should be able to do whatever they want offensively against this soft, banged up Broncos defense that allows 28.2 points per game this season.
Plays against any team (Denver) - with a poor turnover defensive forcing one or fewer turnovers per game, after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 48-22 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Dolphins are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall. Miami is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. Bet the Dolphins Sunday.
|11-22-20||Eagles +3.5 v. Browns||Top||17-22||Loss||-110||123 h 25 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Philadelphia Eagles +3.5
Miles Sanders, Alshon Jeffery, Dallas Goedert, Jalen Raegor, Jason Peters and Lane Johnson have all returned recently to bolster the Eagles’ offense. They didn’t all get in a full week of practice last week, but they should this week. And it should make all the difference as they bounce back from a bad loss to the Giants.
The Eagles were out of sync against the Giants, going just 1-for-12 on 3rd and 4th downs combined. They should be more in sync this week. And it was a great sign for them to rush for 156 yards on 23 attempts, averaging 6.8 yards per attempt. Which makes it even more puzzling hat they struggled on 3rd and 4th. But I expect them to get it worked out this week.
The Browns are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and are for some reason getting a lot of respect here as 3.5-point favorites. Remember, there’s really no home-field advantage in the NFL this year. So it’s basically suggesting the Browns are 3.5 points better on a neutral. I strongly believe the Eagles are the better team now that they are almost fully healthy.
This Cleveland offense has really struggled in scoring 10 or fewer points in three of its last four games overall. The loss of Odell Beckham Jr. is a big one because now teams can stack the box and try to stop their running game, which is their best asset. Baker Mayfield has been awful all season and won’t be able to make many plays against this Philadelphia defense that has been very good against the pass in allowing just 175.3 passing yards per game in their last four.
Plays on road games where the line is +3.5 to -3.5 (Philadelphia) - off a road loss, with a losing record on the season are 41-15 (73.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Browns are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a losing record. The Eagles are 2-1 ATS as an underdog this season with an upset win at San Francisco, a 2-point loss to Baltimore and a 9-point loss at Pittsburgh. Bet the Eagles Sunday.
|11-22-20||Falcons +5 v. Saints||9-24||Loss||-107||123 h 25 m||Show|
15* Falcons/Saints NFC South ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta +5
This is a great spot for the Atlanta Falcons. They are coming off their bye week and looking to make a playoff run in the second half of the season. They are one of the healthiest teams in the entire NFL and are starting to play up to their potential.
In fact, the Falcons are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. They are a Todd Gurley kneel down away from being 4-0 in the Raheem Morris era. Players have clearly responded well to him. They crushed the Vikings 40-23 on the road in his first game as head coach. Then that heartbreaking 22-23 home loss to the Lions, followed by a 25-17 win at Carolina and a 34-27 home win over Denver. And that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as they led 34-13 with under four minutes remaining.
This is a great time to ’sell high’ on the Saints off six straight wins. The first four all came by 6 points or fewer. Their 38-3 win over the Bucs two weeks ago has them overvalued. And their 27-13 win over the 49ers last week wasn’t nearly the blowout that the score would indicate. The Saints managed just 237 total yards against the 49ers but were +2 in turnovers. They have forced a combined seven turnovers the past two games. But now they’ll be up against a Falcons team that doesn’t turn the ball over. Atlanta has committed only eight turnovers in nine games this season.
Now the Saints will have to go on without Drew Brees. Say what you want about him getting older, but he is still one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. And now the Saints have to turn to Jameis Winston, who threw 30 interceptions last year with the Bucs and has always been a turnover machine. They may give Taysom Hill some snaps too, but either way this is a huge downgrade at quarterback, and it’s not being factored into the line enough. There’s tremendous value here on the Falcons catching 5 points off their bye and not having to face Brees.
The Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as road underdogs. Atlanta is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games overall. The Saints are only 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as home favorites. The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Take the Falcons Sunday.
|11-22-20||Steelers v. Jaguars +10||27-3||Loss||-110||123 h 24 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Jacksonville Jaguars +10
The Pittsburgh Steelers are the final unbeaten team in the NFL at 9-0 this season. With that perfect record comes expectations from the betting public and thus oddsmakers that are difficult to live up too. We saw that a few weeks ago when they barely survived in a 24-19 win over the lowly Cowboys. And after a blowout win over the Bengals last week, the Steelers are overvalued here against the Jaguars laying double-digits on the road.
This is the ultimate flat spot for the Steelers. They have the Ravens on deck Thursday night and are coming off that divisional win over the Bengals. This is a sandwich spot now and the Steelers won’t be 100% focused for it. They will clearly be looking ahead to that game against the Ravens.
The Jaguars have impressed me since returning from their bye week. Doug Marrone still has this team showing up every week and trying to beat everyone. And they’ll certainly be pumped to try to become the first team to take down the Steelers. They nearly upset the Packers last week in a 20-24 road loss as 14-point dogs. And they also nearly upset the Texans the week prior in a 25-27 loss as 6.5-point dogs.
The defense is playing better in holding those two elite offenses below 30 points. And their offense has gotten a boost from QB Jake Luton, who is expected to start for a third consecutive game here. Luton is completing 60.3% of his passes with two touchdowns and two interceptions while also rushing for a score. He should only get better with each game, and keep in mind he had great stats against the Texans and poor ones against the Packers because he was playing in a wind storm. It will be perfect weather in Jacksonville Sunday.
Plays against road favorites (Pittsburgh) - a good team outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game, after a win by 10 points or more are 53-20 (72.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Steelers are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games as road favorites of 7.5 to 14 points. Pittsburgh is 12-27-2 ATS in its last 41 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The underdog is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Take the Jaguars Sunday.
|11-19-20||Cardinals v. Seahawks -3||Top||21-28||Win||100||59 h 45 m||Show|
20* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Seattle Seahawks -3
The Seattle Seahawks want revenge from blowing a 27-14 lead at Arizona and losing 34-37 (OT) a few weeks ago. And I think they are just pissed off in general after losing three of their last four. So we are going to get an inspired Seattle Seahawks team Thursday night, and that’s the type of team I want to be backing.
It’s easy to explain the losses here of late. It’s simple, the schedule has gotten harder, and all the losses have been on the road to playoff contenders in Arizona, Buffalo and the LA Rams. Now they return back home where they are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this season. And playing at home on a short week here will be a big advantage for them.
Russell Wilson rarely loses back-to-back games, let alone two straight like he has. Wilson is 32-9 SU in his career off a loss. You know he’s going to be locked in here, especially after the Seahawks committed a combined 10 turnovers in the three road losses, mostly out of his hand. Against, I like a motivated Wilson with a chip on his shoulder.
The Arizona Cardinals are pathetic defensively now that they’ve lost their top pass rusher in Chandler Jones to a biceps injury. The Cardinals have allowed 30 or more points in three straight games coming in. They gave up 572 yards to the Seahawks in that first meeting, and things should come easy for the Seahawks here.
I think this is also a great ‘buy low’ spot on Seattle after losing three of their last four. The lookahead line for this game last week was Seahawks -5.5, and after Seattle lost to the Rams while Arizona had a miracle win on a Hail Mary over Buffalo, this line has now come back at -3. Keep in mind the Seahawks were 3.5-point road favorites at Arizona in their first meeting, and now they are only 3-point home favorites in the rematch. That’s an easy way to tell there is some serious line value with the Seahawks.
Seattle’s defense is getting healthier and as a result, better. They held the Rams to 23 points last week. That was a Rams team coming off a bye with two weeks to prepare for this Seattle defense. So that was also a tough spot for the Seahawks. And it was a good spot for Arizona last week catching Buffalo off back-to-back huge home wins over the Seahawks and Patriots. And the Bills had to travel all the way out West and still played good enough to win that game.
Seattle is 51-32 ATS in its last 83 games off two or more consecutive losses. Pete Carroll is 20-10 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of Seattle. Carrolls is 12-2 ATS off two consecutive losses as the coach of the Seahawks. Seattle is 7-1-2 ATS in its last 10 Thursday games. The Seahawks are 32-15-4 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss. Bet the Seahawks Thursday.
|11-16-20||Vikings v. Bears +3||Top||19-13||Loss||-105||68 h 52 m||Show|
20* Vikings/Bears ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Chicago +3
It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Chicago Bears, who are coming off three straight losses to three of the better teams in the NFL in the Rams, Saints and Titans. Two of those were on the road, and one was an overtime home loss to the Saints.
At the same time, it’s a great time to ‘sell high’ on the Vikings, who are coming off two straight wins and covers over the Packers and the Lions. They had a bye week coming into that game with the Packers and caught them by surprise, revenging an earlier loss. And they caught the Lions without Kenny Golloday, and with Matthew Stafford sitting out practice all week due to Covid-19 protocol. Stafford eventually was knocked out of the game with a concussion as well.
So we’re going to get a Bears team highly motivated to bounce back from three straight losses following their 5-1 start this season. And we’re going to get a fat and happy Vikings team that has rebounded from their 1-5 start with two straight wins. The Bears are still the better team in my opinion with the much better defense and should be favored here.
Minnesota gives up 29.3 points and 412.9 yards per game this season. Chicago only allows 21.1 points and 335.1 yards per game this year. The Vikings do have the better offense, but this is one of the stiffest tests they will have faced all season. They have faced one of the easiest schedules of opposing defenses of any team in the NFL thus far. The only legit defense they faced they lost 11-28 on the road to the Colts.
I foresee us getting the bad Kirk Cousins Monday night. The Bears have owned Cousins and the Vikings, going 4-0 SU in the last four meetings and a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. They have held the Vikings to an average of just 16.3 points per game in those six meetings, and the Vikings have failed to top 23 points once in this stretch.
The Vikings are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 Monday Night games, including 0-7 ATS in their last seven MNF road games. The Bears are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games as home underdogs. Chicago is 19-4 ATS in its last 23 games off three straight games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. The Bears are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. excellent rushing teams that average 5 or more yards per carry. Bet the Bears Monday.
|11-15-20||Bengals +8 v. Steelers||Top||10-36||Loss||-110||144 h 12 m||Show|
25* AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati Bengals +8
This is a great spot to back the Cincinnati Bengals this week. The Bengals are coming off their bye week, so they have two weeks to get ready for the Pittsburgh Steelers. They should put together one of their best performances of the season in this spot.
The Bengals are undervalued because of their 2-5-1 record this season. But they are 6-2 ATS with only one loss by more than 5 points all season. They are much better than their record would indicate. Joe Burrow is having a Rookie of the Year type season and always keeps his team in games. The guy is 19-6 ATS in his last 25 games as a starter dating back to his time at LSU.
The Steelers are overvalued due to being the last remaining unbeaten team at 8-0 this season. I faded them last week with success on the Cowboys +14 in a game that the Cowboys probably should have won outright in a 19-24 defeat. And I’m fading the Steelers again this week laying more than a touchdown to the rested and ready Bengals.
The Steelers have had Covid-19 issues this week that have forced some players to miss practice all week, including Big Ben. And Big Ben injured his knee against the Cowboys and won’t be 100% even if he does play. It would just be an added bonus if he sits out.
The Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Cincinnati is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games as a road underdog. The Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bet the Bengals Sunday.
|11-15-20||Chargers v. Dolphins -2.5||Top||21-29||Win||100||98 h 57 m||Show|
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Dolphins -2.5
I’ve been riding the Miami Dolphins all season and it has paid off. The Dolphins are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS this season and head coach Brian Flores is clearly in the discussion for Coach of the Year. They are coming off two straight upsets over the Rams and Cardinals and are now 3-1 against the NFC West this season, which has been tabbed as the best division in the NFL.
The Dolphins are underrated because they play great defense. They are only giving up 20.1 points per game this season. And their offense showed what it could do last week with Too Tagovailoa leading them to 34 points against the Cardinals. He completed 20 of 28 passes for 248 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions, while also rushing for 35 yards on seven attempts. I don’t believe he’s a downgrade from Ryan Fitzpatrick, and the playbook actually gets bigger with Tua under center.
I went into the week thinking the Dolphins could be getting too much respect off those two upset wins this week. But that’s simply not the case as they are only 2.5-point home favorites here against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers are just 2-6 this season and they just find ways to lose games.
They have blown leads of 16 points or more in four games this season, losing three of them. And last week they nearly completed a comeback of their own against the Raiders, only to have their touchdown on the final play of the game overturned with a booth review. I don’t know how much more heartbreak this team can take. And this might finally be the week where they just fail to show up.
What I also like about the Dolphins is that they are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL. The Chargers have some key losses along the offensive line, and now Joey Bosa is doubtful with a concussion. Their defense is so much better when they have Bosa and Ingram to rush the passer, but without Bosa that is a huge deal and Tua should be able to extend plays with his feet.
I just think this is a great value on a Dolphins team playing with a ton of confidence right now while also fighting for an AFC East Title with the Buffalo Bills. The Chargers have little to play for the rest of the way, and while I don’t expect them to pack it in, I think this is a bad spot for them off two straight heartbreaking defeats in the final seconds. And it’s a West Coast team having to travel East, which is always a tough situation.
The Chargers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. They are losing by 6.9 points per game in this spot. The Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record. These three trends combine for a 17-0 system backing Miami. Take the Dolphins Sunday.
|11-15-20||Eagles -3.5 v. Giants||17-27||Loss||-113||37 h 38 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia Eagles -3.5
The Philadelphia Eagles are in a great spot here Sunday. They are coming off their bye week and are now as healthy as they have been basically all season. They will have six key players back that they didn’t have in their first meeting with the Giants a few weeks ago.
Miles Sanders, Alshon Jeffery, Dallas Goedert, Jalen Raegor, Jason Peters and Lane Johnson all didn’t suit up against the Giants in their first meeting on October 22nd. And that game wasn’t nearly as close as the 21-22 final score would indicate. The Eagles racked up 422 total yards in that game and outgained the Giants by 117 yards. They are clearly the superior team with all these players back and off their bye.
Speaking of misleading finals, the Giants beat the Redskins 23-20 last week. But they won the turnover battle 5-0 and were still only able to win by a field goal. And Washington starting QB Kyle Allen was knocked out of the game in the first quarter, leaving the offense in the hands of the terrible Alex Smith. And even Smith went on to complete 24-of-32 passes for 325 yards against this soft New York defense.
The Eagles have one of the better defenses in the NFL, giving up 340.1 yards per game on the season. They have had just a mediocre offense up to this point, but with all these reinforcements coming back from injury along the offensive line and at the skill positions, the Eagles should easily have a Top 10 offense moving forward.
The Eagles simply own the Giants, going 8-0 SU in the last eight meetings. Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Giants are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 home games. New York is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games as a home underdog. The Eagles are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 trips to New York. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Roll with the Eagles Sunday.
|11-12-20||Colts v. Titans +103||Top||34-17||Loss||-100||11 h 15 m||Show|
20* Colts/Titans AFC South No-Brainer on Tennessee ML +103
The Tennessee Titans are 6-2 this season with their only losses coming at home to the Steelers and on the road to the Bengals. They got back in the win column with a 24-17 victory over the Bears last week in what was a 24-3 game before the Bears scored some points in garbage time to make the score closer than it was.
That was a box score against the Bears that lied last week, and I think it’s creating some line value here on the Titans getting them as home underdogs. The Bears outgained the Titans by nearly 150 yards, but they got almost all those yards in garbage time after the game was already decided. And the Bears ran 20 more plays than the Titans did. The Titans just basically tried to milk the clock after taking a 24-3 lead in the 4th quarter.
The Colts lost 24-10 to the Ravens last week. But the early money is on the Colts this week because of another box score that favored the Colts. They outgained the Ravens by 73 yards. But they went just 2-of-12 on 3rd down in another terrible performance by Philip Rivers when he has stepped up on competition.
Speaking of competition, the Colts have played the easiest schedule in the entire NFL according to Football Outsiders. They are 5-3 this season with their five wins coming against the Vikings, Jets, Bears, Bengals and Lions. And keep in mind they lost to the Jaguars and Browns. Even after playing a good team in the Ravens, they still have the 32nd-ranked schedule in the NFL, which shows just how easy it has been.
Rivers just doesn’t have the same caliber of weapons in Indianapolis as he did with the Chargers. TY Hilton can’t stay healthy and is questionable again tonight. And now Rivers has lost his favorite tight end in Jack Doyle. There’s no question the Titans have a huge advantage on offense with Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, AJ Brown and company. They are scoring 29.0 points per game this season.
The Titans are 4-1 at home this season and winning by 7.8 points per game. Again, their only home loss was to the unbeaten Steelers. The Colts are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. AFC opponents. Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record. The Titans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as home underdogs. Bet the Titans on the Money Line Thursday.
|11-09-20||Patriots -7 v. Jets||Top||30-27||Loss||-120||82 h 11 m||Show|
20* Patriots/Jets ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New England -7
The New England Patriots aren’t going to give up on their season under Bill Belichick. They are just 2-5 on the season but everything is still in front of them, and I like the quotes I’m hearing from the players heading into this game with the New York Jets Monday night. They nearly upset the Bills on the road last week, which shows they have not quit.
If there was ever a ‘get right’ game for the Patriots, this would be it. They take on the worst team in the NFL in the New York Jets, who are 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS with all eight losses coming by 8 points or more and by an average of 18.0 points per game. And we are getting the Patriots here at less than that 8-point margin as only 7-point favorites.
The numbers show the Patriots to be an average team and better than their 2-5 record. They are only getting outgained by 5.6 yards per game on the season. Compare that to the Jets, who are getting outgained by 140 yards per game, and the Patriots should roll to an easy win and cover. And because this is a National TV game on Monday Night Football, the Patriots will show up and handle their business.
Plays against home underdogs or PK (NY Jets) - a poor team that is outgained by 50 or more yards per game, after allowing 375 or more yards in two consecutive games are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Jets are 0-6 ATS after being outgained by 150 or more yards in their previous game over the last two seasons. Bet the Patriots Monday.
|11-08-20||Saints v. Bucs -4.5||38-3||Loss||-109||58 h 19 m||Show|
15* Saints/Bucs NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Tampa Bay -4.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers want revenge from a 23-34 road loss to the New Orleans Saints in the season opener. Of course the Bucs were a completely new team and they weren’t going to be clicking in Week 1. That proved to be the case as Tom Brady threw a pick-six which was the difference. It’s worth noting the Bucs still outgained the Saints by 39 yards in that loss as it was closer than the score would suggest.
It’s safe to say the Bucs have gotten it together since. They have gone 6-1 SU & 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven games overall while outscoring their opponents by an average of 13.3 points per game. Their offense has been rolling with 25-plus points in all six wins. Brady has unlimited weapons, and their defense is one of the best in the NFL, giving up just 20.6 points per game and 299.5 yards per game this season.
I’m willing to throw out Tampa Bay’s narrow win over the New York Giants last week. That was clearly a sandwich spot off two huge blowout wins over the Packers and Raiders, and knowing they had this game against the Saints on deck this week. They didn’t bring their best effort against the Giants and still managed to win.
The Saints are very fortunate to be 5-2 this season. And it’s worth noting their two losses have come to the Packers and Raiders, two teams the Bucs beat by a combined 53 points. They have been fortunate during their current four-game winning streak winning four one-score games by 6 points or fewer over the Lions, Chargers, Panthers and Bears. Those are four mediocre teams at best. This is a big step up in class for the Saints.
Drew Brees looks like a shell of his former self with terrible arm strength, and now he has popped up on the injury report with a throwing shoulder ailment. We still don’t know if Michael Thomas will make his return. And their defense has some key injuries and hasn’t played well all season. The Saints give up 28.1 points per game on the year. This is where it really catches up to them as Tom Brady lights up that soft defense, and the Bucs shut down Brees and company in a huge revenge game that will likely decide the division.
New Orleans is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games off two straight wins by 3 points or less. The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a SU win. New Orleans is 0-4 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning record. These three trends combine for a perfect 16-0 system backing Tampa Bay tonight. Roll with the Bucs Sunday.
|11-08-20||Dolphins +5 v. Cardinals||34-31||Win||100||96 h 18 m||Show|
15* Dolphins/Cardinals Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Miami +5
The Miami Dolphins have been one of my favorite teams to back this season because the betting public just doesn’t want to buy into them. I have fully bought in and it has paid dividends. And I think they’ve being undervalued again this week as 5-point road dogs to the Arizona Cardinals.
I’m buying into the Dolphins because they have an underrated defense and a head coach in Brian Flores who is getting everything out of his players. They love playing for this guy. The defense is giving up just 18.6 points per game on the season and just 17.0 points per game on the road.
Offensively, the Dolphins are scoring 26.9 points per game, so they are outscoring opponents by 8.3 points per game on the season. I don’t think Tua is an upgrade over Ryan Fitzpatrick, but it’s also not as much of a downgrade as many believe it is. I think it’s pretty much a wash at this point and time will tell.
Many bettors are looking at that misleading box score from last week that saw the Dolphins beat the Rams 28-17 as 3-point home dogs. The Dolphins basically got three touchdowns off turnovers. But their defense does force turnovers as they have forced at least one in every game this season and a total of 13 on the year. Tua didn’t have to do much as they took a conservative approach offensively, so they have plenty of hidden secrets with Tua’s playbook that they can unleash on Arizona this week.
Some bye weeks are better than others. I strongly believe this was a bad time for the Cardinals to have their bye week. They had a lot of momentum going into their bye with three straight victories, blowing out both the Jets and Cowboys and upsetting the Seahawks in overtime. So they went into their bye feeling fat and happy instead of hungry. And I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see them come out rusty and flat this week, especially off that huge win over Seattle.
No team has head better health than Miami this season as they only have four players on the injury report currently. That’s impressive when you consider how many teams have been decimated by injuries in this crazy pandemic season. To compare, the Cardinals have 13 players on their injury report even coming off their bye week, and a lot of them are key players.
Miami is a perfect 7-0 ATS in Weeks 5 through 9 over the last two seasons. The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Plays against any team (Arizona) - off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 79-35 (69.3%) ATS since 1983. Take the Dolphins Sunday.
|11-08-20||Steelers v. Cowboys +14||24-19||Win||100||54 h 24 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Dallas Cowboys +14
The Dallas Cowboys are one of just three teams since 1989 to start a season 0-8 ATS. No team has started 0-9 ATS during this span. So the Cowboys would make history if they don’t cover this spread Sunday. It’s safe to say this is a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Cowboys this week.
The Cowboys will likely be starting Cooper Rush at quarterback this week, which would be an upgrade over Ben Dinucci, who has been terrible. And things have gotten better for them on the injury front both on defense and on the offensive line. They still have a chance to win the division, and they will fight until they are eliminated.
Not only is it a great ‘buy low’ spot on Dallas in their biggest underdog role this season, it’s also a ’sell high’ spot on the Steelers. Pittsburgh is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS and making the public a lot of money this season. Now the Steelers find themselves in their biggest favorite role of the season here against the Cowboys.
It’s also a huge letdown spot for the Steelers. They are coming off two straight huge wins. They handed the Titans their first loss of the season two weeks ago, and last week they somehow beat their biggest rivals in the Ravens despite getting outgained by 236 yards. Now they are feeling fat and happy and this is the perfect spot for them to lay an egg against the Cowboys, which will keep this game closer than the oddsmakers expect.
Pittsburgh was in a dog fight with the Eagles a few weeks back. And Dallas gave Philadelphia a run for its money last week. The Cowboys forced four turnovers and held the Eagles to just 222 total yards and had a chance to win it late before Dinucci fumbled and it was returned for a TD. Their defense is improving, and their offense is still one of the most talented in the entire NFL. There is enough talent on this roster to compete with the Steelers even with a fourth different starting QB this week.
Pittsburgh is 12-29 ATS in its last 41 games as a favorite of 10 points or more. The Steelers are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points. Dallas is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 home games after having lost three of its last four coming in. Mike Tomlin is 5-15 ATS vs. teams that are outscored by 10 or more points per game as the coach of the Steelers. Dallas is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a home underdog. Take the Cowboys Sunday.
|11-08-20||Panthers +11 v. Chiefs||Top||31-33||Win||100||93 h 53 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Carolina Panthers +11
Let’s get this remarkable stat out of the way early. Teddy Bridgewater is 22-5 ATS as an underdog as a starting quarterback in the NFL. And it’s a great spot for the Panthers this week. They have extra time to prepare after playing last Thursday against the Falcons, so they should be the fresher, more prepared team.
Now the Panthers should also get back their best playmaker in Christian McCaffrey from an ankle injury. He means everything to this team. And the way to beat the Chiefs is to run on them. Kansas City gives up 143 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry this season. That’s remarkable when you consider the Chiefs play with a lead most the time and teams usually have to throw the ball to try and come back. Look for the Panthers to play keep away from Patrick Mahomes and to run the football and go on long scoring drives as a result.
It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Panthers coming off three straight losses. It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the Chiefs coming off three straight wins and covers. They weren’t just any wins either, they were blowout wins against two of the worst teams in the NFL in the Broncos by 27 and the Jets by 26 in their last two games. And that win over the Broncos was very misleading. This is a big step up in class now for the Chiefs, and I have a feeling they might be sleep-walking this week knowing that they have a big lead in the division and a bye next week to look ahead to.
A big reason Bridgewater is such a good underdog is because he doesn’t turn the ball over. The Panthers have had zero turnovers in four of their eight games this season and just one turnover in two of them. The Chiefs have forced one or more turnovers in every game this year. Bridgewater will take care of the ball in this game, and those long, time-consuming drives he takes the Panthers on will pay dividends and keep this game a lot closer than the oddsmakers expect.
Andy Reid is 0-6 ATS in home games after gaining six or more yards per play in four consecutive games as the coach of the Chiefs having never covered in this situation. The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as underdogs. Bet the Panthers Sunday.
|11-08-20||Giants v. Washington Football Team -2.5||Top||23-20||Loss||-108||51 h 59 m||Show|
25* NFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington -2.5
I love the spot for the Washington Redskins Sunday. They are coming off their bye week and have had two weeks to prepare for the Giants. They will be fresh and ready to go, and they will want revenge from a 19-20 road loss to the Giants just a few weeks back after they came up short on a 2-point conversion late.
It’s a bad spot for the Giants. They are coming off back-to-back heartbreaking losses to the Eagles (21-22) and Bucs (23-25) in their last two games. They may suffer a hangover here, and they will also be on a short week after playing the Bucs on Monday Night Football. They won’t be nearly as excited to fade Washington as they were to face Tom Brady and the Bucs on National TV. That’s especially the case since they’ve already beaten Washington this season.
I would argue Washington deserved to win that first meeting. They racked up 337 total yards in that game and held the Giants to just 240 total yards, outgaining them by 97 yards. And Washington went on to crush Dallas 25-3 in their final game before the bye while holding the Cowboys to just 142 total yards. They have an underrated defense that can keep them in games, and they clearly have the better defense in this matchup.
The Redskins have been at their best offensively when they’ve had Kyle Allen at quarterback. He is a lot better than he gets credit for. Allen is completing 68.8% of his passes with four touchdowns and only one interception in his three starts this season. He is also mobile with 26 rushing yards and a score.
Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a SU win. Plays against road underdogs or PK (NY Giants) - after covering the spread in three of their last four games, a bad team that wins less than 25% of their games playing a team with a losing record are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS since 1983. Bet Washington Sunday.
|11-05-20||Packers -2.5 v. 49ers||Top||34-17||Win||100||83 h 1 m||Show|
20* Packers/49ers NFC No-Brainer on Green Bay -2.5
Note: I locked in the Packers -2.5 with a personal bet myself at William Hill early Monday morning as well. With the new info that has come out since with Jimmy G and Kittle both out, plus the Covid issues, I'd still take the Packers as a 20* up to -6.5. Thanks.
I’ve been fading the 49ers for weeks and will continue to do so Thursday as they host the Green Bay Packers. The 49ers simply have too many injuries to be able to beat a team the caliber of the Packers, just as they couldn’t beat a team that caliber of the Seahawks last week. And I believe the Packers are as good or better than the Seahawks this season.
The 49ers are playing without Richard Sherman, Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas, Dee Ford, K’Waun Williams, Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. Now Jimmy G and George Kittle have been added to the injury list and are both questionable for Thursday. Deebo Samuel missed last game and likely won’t return on a short week with a hamstring injury. Not to mention, Tevin Coleman, Kwon Alexander, Dante Pettis and Jacquiski Tartt all have the questionable label. They are missing 20-plus contributors to injury.
The Packers have some injury issues of their own as RB Aaron Jones, T David Bakhtiari and CB Kevin King all missed last game with injuries. I’m hopeful a few of them return, but either way the Packers’ injury situation is a lot prettier than that of the 49ers. And that was a bad spot for the Packers last week and a great one for the Vikings, which is why we were on the Vikings +7 in that one.
The Vikings were coming off their bye week and got a healthy Dalvin Cook back from injury. Cook torched the Packers for four touchdowns, but he was really Minnesota’s only offense as they finished with 324 total yards, a reasonable showing for the Packers. Green Bay had 400 total yards in that game.
The Packers responded well from their first loss of the season against the Bucs with a 35-20 win at Houston. And they will respond well from this loss to Minnesota. Adding to the Packers’ motivation here is the fact that they lost both meetings with the 49ers last season, including in the playoffs. They will want revenge here, similar to the Seahawks wanting revenge on the 49ers last week when we cashed them in as our 25* NFC West Game of the Year. The Packers will have their revenge in a big way Thursday night.
Green Bay is 40-23 ATS in its last 63 games off a loss by 6 points or less. Plays on underdogs or PK (Green Bay) - a team that commits 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game against a team that forces 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game, after two straight games where they forced one or fewer turnovers are 29-9 (76.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Packers Thursday.
|11-02-20||Bucs v. Giants UNDER 47||Top||25-23||Loss||-115||148 h 24 m||Show|
20* Bucs/Giants ESPN Monday No-Brainer on UNDER 47
The New York Giants have been an UNDER machine this season. They have a terrible offense and an underrated defense. The UNDER is 5-2 in their seven games this year and six of the seven have seen 45 or fewer combined points. The only exception was their game against the Dallas Cowboys, who have arguably the worst defense in the NFL.
Speaking of underrated defenses, the Tampa Bay Bucs give up just 20.3 points and 291.3 yards per game. Their offense gets all their credit, but it is their defense being the reason that they are so good. In fact, Football Outsiders has the Bucs ranked as the top defense in the entire NFL this season.
The Giants have given up 22 or fewer points in four of their seven games this season. I think they can limit what the Bucs do offensively similar to when the Bears held the Bucs to just 19 points a few weeks back. The Bucs have scored a ton of points the last two weeks since against the Packers and Raiders, but many of those points were created by their defense, and that’s unlikely to continue happening.
The Giants have the 30th-ranked offense according to Football Outsiders. They average just 17.4 points and 282.4 yards per game this season. Daniel Jones really misses his best weapon in Saquon Barkley. And now he’s left with one of the worst set of skill players in the NFL. I don’t expect the Giants to do much offensively to contribute to the total points scored in this game.
Plays on the UNDER on any team where the total is 42.5 to 49 (Tampa Bay) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers are 41-14 (74.5%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
|11-01-20||49ers v. Seahawks -3||Top||27-37||Win||100||122 h 59 m||Show|
25* NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Seahawks -3
It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the San Francisco 49ers this week. They are coming off two upset wins as underdogs over the Rams and Patriots. It’s clear the Patriots are broken and that win doesn’t mean as much as the 33-6 final score would indicate. Now the 49ers have to face a real team in the Seattle Seahawks.
It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Seahawks after they blew a 27-14 lead and lost to the Cardinals in overtime last week. Russell Wilson had his worst game of the season with three interceptions. The Seahawks hadn’t turned the ball over more than once prior to that game. Russell is in a bounce-back spot and wants revenge on the 49ers after they took the NFC West title from them in Week 17 last year.
The Seahawks have been able to make up for a suspect defense with an offense that is one of the best in the NFL in putting up 33.8 points per game this season. And there’s a good chance the Seahawks get back their leader on defense in safety Jamal Adams this week.
The 49ers’ injury report just got even worse after last week. They lost RB Jeff Wilson Jr. to an ankle injury late, and he had three touchdowns against the Patriots. They don’t really have any good healthy running backs left after also losing Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert to season-ending injury. The 49ers now have at least 19 contributors that are out due to injury this season.
New starter Jerick McKinnon has been ineffective, which is why everyone else is starting ahead of him. And they have also been using Deebo Samuel a lot in the running game, but now he is out with a hamstring injury. Samuel was becoming their best playmaker the last few weeks, so it’s a big loss. Jimmy Ward, Jaquiski Tartt and Kwon Alexander are all questionable to play this week and they are already missing a handful of starters on D.
The Seahawks are 6-0 ATS after allowing more than 350 passing yards in their previous game over the last two seasons. Seattle is 8-1 ATS after allowing 450 or more total yards in its previous game over the last three years, coming back to win by 8.8 yards per game in this spot. The Seahawks are 32-15-4 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss. Bet the Seahawks Sunday.
|11-01-20||Patriots v. Bills -3||Top||21-24||Push||0||119 h 33 m||Show|
20* AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo Bills -3
I made my worst pick of the season last week on the Patriots over the 49ers as a 25*. I apologize to my clients for that one. I thought the Patriots were affected by only having one padded practice in the two weeks prior leading up to their losses to the Chiefs and Broncos. And they had a full week of practice last week to improve.
It didn’t matter. The Patriots are clearly broken after losing 6-33 at home to the 49ers for their third consecutive loss. That followed up a 12-18 home loss to the Denver Broncos as 7-point favorites. And before that they lost 10-26 on the road to the Kansas City Chiefs.
So, the Patriots have scored an average of 9.3 points per game in their last three games. Their offense is way broken. Cam Newton has two touchdown passes against seven interceptions on the season and the Panthers are glad they moved on from him. He is in jeopardy of losing his starting job. It doesn’t matter who they go with because the backups haven’t been any better. Their quarterbacks have combined for three touchdowns against 11 interceptions on the season.
The usually steady Patriots defense is missing too many players to be effective last year. A banged-up 49ers offense just put up 33 points and 467 total yards on them last week. That came a week after the Broncos scored on their first six possessions of the game, albeit all field goals but they still had no problem moving the football on the Patriots.
The Bills are the real deal this season. Their only two losses came against two of the best teams in the NFL in the Titans and Chiefs, who are a combined 11-2 this season. They have been frustrated for years by the Patriots, and now it’s finally their turn to take over this division. They will be highly motivated to do just that Sunday.
Buffalo’s 18-10 win at the New York Jets last week was very misleading. They somehow had to settle for eight field goal attempts in that game, and only made six of them. But they outgained the Jets 422 to 190 for the game, so it was a bigger blowout than the final score showed. And their defense completely shut down the Jets after giving up 10 early points.
Buffalo boasts one of the best offenses in the NFL in scoring 24.9 points and averaging 376.7 yards per game. Jose Allen is having an MVP-caliber season thus far. He is completing 67.6% of his passes for 2,018 yard with a 16-to-4 TD/INT ratio. He has also rushed for 204 yards and three scores as one of the best dual-threats in the game, something the Patriots will struggle with.
It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Bills off three straight ATS losses. They should be closer to 7-point favorites in this game. The Bills are 24-7 ATS in their last 31 games off three or more consecutive ATS losses. New England is 0-6 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 375 or more yards per game over the last two seasons. The Patriots are 0-6 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more yards per attempt over the last two years. Bet the Bills Sunday.
|11-01-20||Colts v. Lions +3||41-21||Loss||-110||119 h 33 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Detroit Lions +3
The Detroit Lions have some momentum right now after going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall to live up to their potential. All three wins came on the road over the Cardinals, Jaguars and Falcons. And their last-second win over the Falcons last week keeps their momentum going. Their only defeat came by 6 against one of the best teams in the NFL in the Saints.
Now the Lions host the Colts, who are getting too much respect from oddsmakers as 3-point road favorites here. The Colts are 4-2 but they have played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL, while the Lions have played one of the toughest. The Lions have faced four teams with winning records, while the Colts have only faced two in the Bears and Browns, who are both overrated.
Philip Rivers looks like a shell of his former self. He has a 7-to-6 TD/INT ratio on the season. Matthew Stafford is clearly the better quarterback with the better weapons in this matchup. He has a 10-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season and has been one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the NFL. And he has been even better since getting his favorite target in Kenny Golloday back from injury after missing the first two games, both losses by the Lions.
The Lions have more talent on defense than they get credit for too, and that unit has played up to their potential the last two weeks in limiting the Jaguars to 16 points and the Lions to 22 points. And I think they’ll continue to have success against a Colts offense that hasn’t been great despite feasting on one of the easiest schedules of opposing defenses in the NFL. Football outsiders has them ranked as the 22nd-best offense in the NFL. Football outsiders also identifies the Colts have playing the 32nd-ranked schedule in the NFL thus far, while the Lions have played the 14th-toughest schedule.
Frank Reich is 2-9 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game as the coach of the Colts. I believe the wrong team is favored in this matchup and Detroit has a great chance to win this game outright. Take the Lions Sunday.
|11-01-20||Vikings +7 v. Packers||28-22||Win||100||119 h 33 m||Show|
15* Vikings/Packers NFC North ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +7
It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Minnesota Vikings (1-5) and sell high on the Green Bay Packers (5-1). And an easy way to see that the Vikings are undervalued while the Packers are overvalued is to compare this line to the line from Week 1. The Vikings were actually favored over the Packers in Week 1, and now they are 7-point dogs, which has been at least an 8-point adjustment. That’s too much.
The Vikings are better than their 1-5 record would indicate. They have played the 4th-toughest schedule in the NFL and have two 1-point losses to two of the best teams in the NFL in the Seahawks and Titans. And after giving away that game to the Seahawks, they laid an egg in last game against the Falcons with a 23-40 home loss.
The Vikings have since had a bye week to recover from that loss to the Falcons. And you know Mike Zimmer will have this team improving greatly with two weeks to prepare for the Packers. You also know that the Vikings will be highly motivated to face a division rival and first place team in the Packers. This is their chance to really turn their season around, and they will make the most of it. Getting 7 points with the Vikings is too much.
The bye week has also allowed star RB Dalvin Cook to return from an injury that kept him out against the Falcons. This offense really goes as Cook goes. He has rushed for 489 yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 5.3 yards per carry in five games. He also has 12 receptions for 64 yards and needs involved more in the passing game. Justin Jefferson (28 receptions, 537 yards, 3 TD) and Adam Thielen (32, 415, 7 TD) are great weapons for Cousins outside.
While the Vikings are getting healthier on both sides of the ball with their bye week, the Packers have a lot of injuries with guys listed as questionable. T David Bakhtiari missed last week with a chest injury and is questionable. S Darnell Savage, RB Aaron Jones, DL Tyler Lancaster and CB Kevin King are all questionable as well. Jones would be a huge loss as he has 550 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns this year.
Minnesota is 54-31 ATS in its last 85 games off two or more consecutive losses. Zimmer is a perfect 8-0 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 points or more as the coach of Minnesota. This 100% never lost system shows a lot about Zimmer and his ability to get the most out of his teams in this situation. Take the Vikings Sunday.
|11-01-20||Steelers v. Ravens -3||28-24||Loss||-125||119 h 33 m||Show|
15* Steelers/Ravens AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -3
No question the Pittsburgh Steelers are a legit 6-0 and one of the best teams in the NFL. But it’s time to ‘sell high’ on the Steelers this week. They are 5-1 ATS this season and are starting to become a public team. And you can tell there’s line value with the Ravens this week when you consider this line was Ravens -6 last week and now it’s -3 to -3.5 this week.
The only thing that happened to move that line was the Steelers going on the road and beating the Titans 27-24 last week. Well, I had the Steelers as a free pick in that game because I stated that the Titans were one of the most fraudulent 5-0 teams in the history of the NFL. And that came to fruition, even though the Steelers still nearly found a way to lose that game.
Now the Steelers have to go on the road for a second straight week and face a rested, hungry Ravens team coming off their bye week. The Ravens have been dominant this season at 5-1 with their only loss coming to the Kansas City Chiefs. They five wins have come by an average of 17.8 points per game. They should be more than 3-point home favorites here over the Steelers given the situation.
Yes, the Steelers have been great against the run this year, but they haven’t had to face a mobile QB like the one they will be up against Sunday in Lamar Jackson. All Jackson has done is lead a Ravens offense that is averaging a whopping 29.8 points per game. And this is definitely an improved Baltimore defense, one that gives up only 17.3 points and 339.8 yards per game.
You definitely want to be backing John Harbaugh off a bye week. He is 9-2 ATS off a bye as the coach of the Ravens. Mike Tomlin is 6-16 ATS off a win by 6 points or less as the coach of the Steelers. The Ravens are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. AFC opponents, including 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. AFC North foes. The Steelres are 3-7-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
Plays on any team (Baltimore) - off a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent off a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 72-34 (67.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Ravens Sunday.
|10-29-20||Falcons v. Panthers -2.5||Top||25-17||Loss||-119||70 h 13 m||Show|
25* NFL Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Carolina Panthers -2.5
The Carolina Panthers are much better than they are getting credit for this season. Matt Rhule is doing a tremendous job of getting the most out of this team, and Teddy Bridgewater continues to be a covering machine dating back to his time with the Vikings and Saints. It was a great fit for the Panthers getting Bridewater, and he has had them competitive in every game they’ve played.
The Panthers are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They beat the Chargers and Falcons on the road while also topping the Cardinals at home. They only lost by a touchdown to the Bears at home and had a chance to force OT at the end. And last week they were in a tough spot facing a Saints team off a bye on the road, yet nearly knocked them off in a 24-27 loss as 7-point dogs.
And there’s good news on the horizon for the Panthers. Christian McCaffrey returned to practice Monday and there’s a very real possibility he’ll play Thursday. Either way, they have still been winning without him and will continue to do so if he doesn’t play. Getting him back would just be an added bonus. And I like backing home teams on these short weeks when possible, and I think there’s a ton of value getting the Panthers at -2.5 here under a field goal.
It’s going to be tough for the Falcons to get back up off the mat after the way they lost to the Lions Sunday. All Todd Gurley had to do was not score at the end and they could have kicked the game-winning field goal. Instead, they left just enough time for Matthew Stafford and Lions to drive down the field and score the game-winning touchdown on the final play of the game. I just don’t see how they can possibly bounce back from that gut-wrenching loss at the buzzer, especially not a 1-6 team like the Falcons with zero playoff aspirations.
The Panthers already beat the Falcons 23-16 in their first meeting this season in Atlanta. They racked up 437 total yards on the Falcons and held them to 369. They led 20-7 at half and really should have won by more. Bridewater went 27-of-36 passing for 313 yards and two touchdowns, while Mike Davis rushed for 89 yards on 16 carries. Both should have great games against this awful Atlanta defense that is giving up 29.6 points and 425.9 yards per game this season.
It’s also worth noting that this will be just the 2nd outdoor game of the season for the Falcons, who are built to play in a dome. In their first, they lost 16-30 at Green Bay as their offense just couldn’t get anything going. Their speed just doesn’t play nearly as well on a grass field like the one Carolina has. The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last five games on grass. Bet the Panthers Thursday.