20* Bills/Jets ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 41

It's going to be very windy Monday night in New York with 10-20 MPH winds throughout the game.  Wind is the biggest factor in preventing points, and these are already two dead nuts UNDER teams as currently constructed.

The Jets have yet another Top 5 defense this season.  They rank 6th in scoring defense at 17.0 points per game, 2nd in total defense at 255.8 yards per game and 1st at 4.5 yards per play allowed.  They are nearly back to full strength defensively as LB C.J. Mosely is back this week and NB Michael Carter II is questionable.

The Bills have slipped a little defensively this season ranking 12th in the NFL allowing 21.2 points per game.  But injuries and a tough schedule are a big reason for that slippage as they have had to face the Texans, Ravens, Jaguars, Dolphins and Cardinals.  This may be the worst offense they have faced yet in the Jets.

The Bills have LB Terrel Bernard, NB Taron Johnson and SS Taylor Rapp back in the lineup after all three missed games earlier.  They'll be up against a poor Jets offense that ranks 25th in scoring at 18.6 points per game, 27th in total offense at 286.6 yards per game and 27th at 4.7 yards per play.

The problem for the Bills this season is a lack of playmakers on offense.  They rank 22nd in the NFL at 299.8 yards per game.  After managing just 10 points against the Ravens two weeks ago, the Bills were fortunate to get to 20 points against the Texans last week considering they were held to 276 total yards and 16 first downs.  Josh Allen had the worst game of his career completing just 9-of-30 (30%) of his pass attempts for 131 yards.

Allen was without his best receiver in Khalil Shakir last week, and he didn't practice Friday and may be out again with an ankle injury.  Now leading rusher James Cook has a toe injury and didn't practice Friday as well.  WR Mack Hollins and WR Curtis Samuel are banged up, and QB Allen is dealing with ankle and hand injuries and hasn't looked the same the last two weeks.

The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with 38 or fewer combined points in all five.  The UNDER is 17-2-1 in the last 20 Monday Night Football games when the home team is listed as the underdog.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Falcons/Panthers OVER 47.5

The Carolina Panthers are a dead nuts OVER team with Andy Dalton at quarterback.  The OVER is 3-0 in Dalton's three starts this season with 58, 58 and 46 combined points.  He makes their offense respectable, and he is forced to try to win shootouts every week because the Panthers have arguably the worst defense in the NFL.

The Panthers rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 33.0 points per game allowed, 28th in total defense at 371.2 yards per game and 26th at 6.0 yards per play.  Injuries have absolutely decimated their defense as they are without DE Derrick Brown, LB Shaq Thompson, LB Jadeveon Clowney and LB Josey Jewell among others.  They have nine defenders on the IR already.

Now they must try and tame a hot Atlanta offense that ranks 7th in the NFL at 6.2 yards per play.  Kirk Cousins is coming off one of his best games of his career with 509 passing yards and 4 TD in a 36-30 win over the Bucs last week.  The Falcons will be able to name their number against this Carolina defense, and Dalton and company will be forced to go up-tempo in the 2H to try and keep pace.  Carolina does a good job of pass blocking up front, and Atlanta has one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL, so Dalton should have plenty of success.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Lions/Cowboys NFC No-Brainer on Detroit -3

The Detroit Lions absolute hate the Dallas Cowboys.  They lost to them in the playoffs on a phantom penalty a few years ago.  They lost on another bogus penalty last year getting their 2-point conversion called back in a 20-19 defeat.  They have now lost six straight to the Cowboys.  This is the week they say enough is enough.

Normally I don't like backing teams coming out of their bye week who went into their bye week fat and happy like the Lions did.  They beat the Seahawks 42-29 to improve to 3-1 on the season.  But they aren't fat and happy because they have revenge in mind against the Cowboys, plus they are now trailing the 5-0 Minnesota Vikings within the division.  The Lions will be all business this week.

But this is as much a fade of the Cowboys as anything.  Dallas has been ravaged by injuries as they are missing four key defensive linemen including Parsons and Lawrence.  The Steelers weren't able to take advantage last week, but the Lions will be able to.  They have one of the best offensive lines and thus one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL.

The Lions rank 6th in the NFL in rushing at 151.2 yards per game and will be up against a Cowboys defense that ranks 24th at stopping the run.  The Cowboys are 0-2 in their two home games this season losing 44-19 to the Saints and 28-25 to the Ravens in a game the Ravens led by 22 at one point.  The Ravens rushed for 274 yards on the Cowboys while the Saints rushed for 190.  And that was before all these injuries started to hit this Cowboys defense.

This is a very tough spot for the Cowboys.  They return home from Pittsburgh after playing on Sunday Night Football and having their game delayed by lightning to boot.  It didn't get over until around midnight eastern, meaning the Cowboys didn't get back home until early Monday morning.  They have a bye on deck next week and may play it smart and not rush anyone back from injury as a result.  The Lions will be the fresher team playing with a sense of urgency this week.  Bet the Lions Sunday.

15* Chargers/Broncos AFC West ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -2.5

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Chargers this week.  They are coming off their bye week, and bye weeks are much more beneficial to first-year head coaches like Jim Harbaugh.  The bye couldn't have come at a better time for the Chargers, who were extremely banged up going into their bye and needed the rest to get some key players healthy.

Reinforcements are on the way now.  Both starting tackles in Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater are expected to return this week.  QB Justin Herbert needed those two weeks to get his ankle healed up and has no injury designation now.  They are fully healthy on offense, plus SS Derwin James returns and LB Joey Bosa will likely be back as well.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Broncos, who are coming off three straight misleading wins since their 0-2 start.  They caught the Bucs in a letdown spot after getting playoff revenge on the Lions the previous week and upset them 26-7.  Two weeks ago they beat the Jets 10-9 on the road despite managing just 176 total yards on offense.  Last week, they beat the Raiders 34-18 despite getting outgained 330 to 289 by Las Vegas.  The Raiders were going in to take a 17-3 lead but threw a 100-yard pick-6 that changed the game.

Injuries are mounting for the Broncos now.  They will be without two starting offensive linemen in C Luke Wattenberg and RT Alex Palczewski, and two other offensive linemen are already on the IR.  WR Josh Reynolds is out as well.  This Denver offense may be the worst in the entire NFL now.  They rank 28th in total offense at 270.6 yards per game and 30th at 4.6 yards per play.  They'll be up against a Chargers defense that ranks 5th at 282.5 yards per game, 6th at 5.2 yards per play and 1st in scoring at 12.5 points per game allowed.

The Chargers fit into a great system, and road favorites off a bye week have been gold for years to boot.  Bye teams coming off a loss against a non-bye team that is coming off a win, when the team off a bye is not more than a 3-point underdog are 35-6 ATS in the last 41 tries.  Favorites or short dogs off a loss off a bye are a great bet, and it makes sense because they are motivated and rested.  Bet the Chargers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Line Mistake on Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML -140

I released the Bucs on the Money Line as soon as I found out Derek Carr would be out for the Saints.  I already loved the spot for the Bucs after playing last Thursday while the Saints played on Monday, giving the Bucs a 4-day rest advantage.

This play has just gotten stronger with all the injuries the Saints are dealing with right now.  They aren't the same team that opened 2-0 with blowout wins over the Panthers and Cowboys.  Injuries have really decimated this team and are the biggest reason for their 0-3 record since.

Not only are the Saints without Carr, but they are without C Erik McCoy and RG Cesar Ruiz.  Both backup centers are either out or questionable as well.  Defensively, the Saints are without LB Pete Werner and S Will Harris as well.  They just allowed 460 total yards to the Chiefs, who were missing key weapons and still did whatever they wanted offensively Monday night.

The Bucs rank 10th in the NFL scoring 25.4 points per game.  They are pretty healthy on offense, and on defense they are likely to get two key pieces back this week in DE Calijah Kancey and S Antoine Winfield.  There's a good chance they get back to full strength here defensively, which hasn't been the case the last few weeks.

The Bucs are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four trips to New Orleans, including a 26-9 victory last week.  I just don't think rookie QB Spencer Rattler has what it takes to win in his first start.  The Saints are also without TE Taysom Hill, who brings an added dimension to their offense that they have been missing the last three weeks.  Todd Bowles should have a field day calling defense against Rattler and keeping him off balance while committing multiple turnovers.  Bet the Bucs on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Tennessee Titans ML -115

The Indianapolis Colts may have the worst defense in the NFL with all their injuries right now.  They just gave up 37 points and 497 total yards to what was a previously dead Jaguars offense last week.  They now rank 32nd in total defense allowing 419.2 yards per game and 30th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are without three defensive linemen including DeForest Buckner, they are without their best CB in JuJu Brents and they are without another linebacker.

The Titans are coming off their bye week and in line for their best offensive output of the season.  Bye weeks are very beneficial to first-year head coaches like Brian Callahan.  He gets Will Levis back from injury this week, and Levis will look like Montana up against this Indianapolis defense.  The Titans should be able to name their number against this Colts stop unit.

The Colts have a boom or bust offense, and I believe they are worse off with Anthony Richardson than Joe Flacco.  They are expected to start Richardson this week.  They will be without star RB Jonathan Taylor, and their top two receivers in Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs are both questionable.  Injuries have really decimated the Colts in the early going.

The Titans are fully healthy coming out of their bye and they get back their best defensive player in DE Jeffrey Simmons, who is one of the most underrated defenders in the entire NFL.  Defense has been a bright spot for the Titans, who rank 1st in the NFL at 243.8 yards per game allowed and 2nd at 4.6 yards per play.  They upgraded their defense big time, and I expect they'll get multiple turnovers in this game to change the game to their favor.  Bet the Titans on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Commanders +7

What more do the Washington Commanders have to do to get some respect? They clearly aren't getting any this week as 7-point road underdogs to the Baltimore Ravens and we'll take advantage once again.

The Commanders are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat the Giants 21-18 on seven field goals and never punted.  The beat the Bengals 38-33 on the road and never punted.  They beat the Cardinals 42-14 on the road as 3.5-point dogs.  And last week they crushed the Browns 34-13 at home as 3-point favorites.

Jayden Daniels is on the best rookies in recent memory, completing 77.1% of his passes for 1,135 yards and 4 TD with only 2 INT, while also rushing for 300 yards and 4 TD while averaging 5.3 per carry.  He is making all the right decisions, and Kliff Kingsbury is proving his chops as an offensive coordinator in this league.

While the offense is getting all the hype, the improvement of Dan Quinn's defense has been impressive the last two weeks.  They held the Cardinals to just 14 points and the Browns to just 13 points in consecutive weeks.  I don't expect them to stop the Ravens, but I expect them to get enough stops to keep Daniels and company in the game for four quarters.

This is a massive letdown spot for the Ravens. They fought back from three double-digit deficits in the 2H to beat the Bengals 41-38 (OT) on the road last week.  They are a tired team, while the Commanders should be fresh off two straight blowout wins.  The Commanders are as healthy as any team in the NFL right now to boot.

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens tend to have letdowns in these spots when they are favored by more than 3 points.  In fact, Jackson is 11-21 ATS as a home favorite of -3.5 or higher in his career.  We saw them lose outright as 8.5-point favorites to the Raiders earlier this season.  Bet the Commanders Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Commanders/Ravens OVER 51.5

Jayden Daniels is on the best rookies in recent memory, completing 77.1% of his passes for 1,135 yards and 4 TD with only 2 INT, while also rushing for 300 yards and 4 TD while averaging 5.3 per carry.  He is making all the right decisions, and Kliff Kingsbury is proving his chops as an offensive coordinator in this league.

Daniels leads a Washington offense that ranks 1st in scoring at 31.0 points per game, 4th in total offense at 392.6 yards per game and 3rd at 6.5 yards per play.  The Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team because they have a poor defense, allowing 6.0 yards per play which ranks 27th in the NFL.

The Baltimore Ravens have an elite offense as well this season ranking 2nd in scoring at 29.4 points per game, 1st in total offense at 447.6 yards per game and 1st at 6.9 yards per play.  The Ravens rank 25th in the NFL allowing 6.0 yards per play defensively.  Both offenses should have their way Sunday in what will likely be the biggest shootout of the week.  

The Ravens are 4-1 OVER in all games this season and the Commanders are 4-1 OVER in all games this season as well.  Both are dead nuts OVER teams.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Colts/Titans OVER 42.5

The Indianapolis Colts may have the worst defense in the NFL with all their injuries right now.  They just gave up 37 points and 497 total yards to what was a previously dead Jaguars offense last week.  They now rank 32nd in total defense allowing 419.2 yards per game and 30th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are without three defensive linemen including DeForest Buckner, they are without their best CB in JuJu Brents and they are without another linebacker.

The Titans are coming off their bye week and in line for their best offensive output of the season.  Bye weeks are very beneficial to first-year head coaches like Brian Callahan.  He gets Will Levis back from injury this week, and Levis will look like Montana up against this Indianapolis defense.  The Titans should be able to name their number against this Colts stop unit.

Shane Steichen is an offensive-minded head coach for the Colts and he is a dead nuts OVER coach because he likes to push the tempo and doesn't worry about defense.  This Indianapolis offense ranks 4th in the NFL averaging 6.4 yards per play.  They should do enough against the Titans to push this one up and OVER the total.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Jaguars/Bears NFL London No-Brainer on OVER 44

The Chicago Bears picked up the tempo last week with a season-high 36% of their snaps coming out of no-huddle.  They now have the 2nd-highest no-huddle rate in the NFL and it is working as Caleb Williams has looking much more comfortable the last three weeks.

Williams threw for 363 yards against the Colts three weeks ago.  He led the Bears to 24 points against the Rams two weeks ago, and last week he led the Bears to a season-high 36 points and 424 total yards.

Of course, the Colts, Rams and Panthers have three of the worst defenses in the NFL.  But now Williams gets another soft defense in the Jaguars, who rank 30th in scoring defense at 28.6 points per game allowed, 31st in total defense at 393.4 yards per game and 31st at 6.2 yards per play allowed.  They allow points on 50% of their drives and have allowed the most 20-plus yard plays in the NFL this season.

The Jaguars are going more man-to-man this season and it's not working as they do not have the personnel to do it, especially in the secondary.  They are missing their best cover corner in Tyson Campbell due to injury, which is a big part of the problem.  I expect Williams to have a field day against a Jacksonville defense that allowed 34 points to the Colts and 47 to the Bills.

The Jaguars had their best offensive output of the season last week with 37 points and 497 total yards against the Colts.  Reinforcements are on the way as both TE Evan Engram and WR Gabe Davis are expected to return from injury this week.  Now the Jaguars are at full strength on offense.

They face a Chicago defense that has been good this season, but one that is dealing with a ton of injuries heading into London.  SS Jaquan Brisker is out, CB Tyrique Stevenson is doubtful, and his backup Terell Smith is out.  Trevor Lawrence should be able to take advantage of this Chicago secondary with all the key pieces they will be missing.  This total of 44 is too low for this game Sunday morning.  Bet the OVER in London.

20* 49ers/Seahawks NFC West No-Brainer on San Francisco -3

I like backing elite teams who are motivated.  That will be the case for the San Francisco 49ers Thursday night when they travel to face the Seattle Seahawks.  The 49ers sit at 2-3 on the season but should be 4-1 at worst and possibly 5-0.  If they had the record they deserved, they would be more than 3-point favorites here.

The 49ers absolutely blew two games in the 4th quarter to the Rams and Cardinals.  They led the Cardinals 23-10 at halftime last week and lost 24-23.  They led the Rams 24-14 in the final seven minutes and lost 27-24.  They also lost 23-17 to the Vikings on the road despite outgaining them.

Despite their 2-3 record, the 49ers are clearly still one of the best teams in the NFL when you dive into the numbers.  They rank 2nd in total offense at 407.4 yards per game and 2nd at 6.5 yards per play.  They rank 10th in total defense allowing 307.8 yards per game, so they are outgaining opponents by 100 yards per game.  They have also gotten healthier in recent weeks and are very healthy heading into this game with Seattle.

The Seahawks were overvalued after a 3-0 start against the weakest schedule in the league beating the Broncos, Patriots and Dolphins.  I successfully faded them the last two weeks backing the Lions -4 in a 42-29 win over the Seahawks and the Giants +7 in a 29-20 win over Seattle.  I am fading them again this week for many of the same reasons.

This Seattle defense is dealing with a ton of injuries, and their lack of talent and depth has really shown the last two weeks.  They allowed 42 points to the Lions as Jared Goff went a perfect 18-of-18 passing.  They allowed 29 points and 420 total yards to a Giants team last week that was missing WR Malik Nabers and RB Devin Singletary, arguably their two best playmakers on offense.

The Seahawks are without LB Nowsu, LB Onujiogu and FS Reed II.  LB Hall, DT Murhpy and CB Woolen all missed practice on Tuesday and are doubtful.  S Love is limited and will likely play.  Now the Seahawks are on a short week here and gassed defensively after being on the field for over 37 minutes against the Giants on Sunday.  They gave up 175 rushing yards against a Giants team that previously could not run the football.  

Now they must try to tackle the physical Jordan Mason, who has 536 rushing yards and 5.1 per carry through five games in Christian McCaffrey's absence.  The Seahawks got to face four poor offenses in five games and we saw what the Lions did to them scoring 42 points.  The 49ers are on the Lions' level offensively if not better.  I just don't see Seattle getting many stops in this game, and the 49ers will get enough stops to cover this short number.

The 49ers are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with all five wins coming by 8 points or more.  Bet the 49ers Thursday.

20* Saints/Chiefs ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 43.5

The Chiefs were already handcuffed offensively when it was announced that WR Hollywood Brown would miss the entire season due to shoulder surgery.  Now they lost their best weapon in WR Rashee Rice to a knee injury and he will not be available for Week 5.  They were already without RB Isaiah Pacheco, who was the heart and soul of the offense.

We saw this last year with the Chiefs limited by injuries offensively having to rely on their defense on their way to winning the Super Bowl.  But that was when they had Rice and Pacheco leading the way.  Now they are without both, and the Chiefs are going to have to rely on an aging Travis Kelce, a rookie in Xavier Worthy and several replacement-level receivers moving forward unless they make a trade.  They are relying on defense now more than ever.

This Kansas City defense has been dynamite in paving the way for a 4-0 start for the Chiefs.  They rank 9th allowing 18.0 points per game despite facing both the Bengals and Ravens, who have two of the best offenses in the NFL.  Now they should have their way with a New Orleans Saints offense that is banged up along the offensive line.  The strength of Kansas City's defense is their front seven, and they will make life very difficult for Drew Brees and company for four quarters in this one.

The Saints have a very good defense and it's what keeps them competitive every year under defensive-minded head coach, Dennis Allen.  The Saints rank 7th in scoring defense at 17.5 points per game.  Keep in mind that number would be even lower if not for two fluky non-offensive touchdowns by the Falcons last week with a tipped interception that was returned for a TD and a muffed punt that was recovered in the end zone for another TD.

Given the Saints having one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL without their best offensive lineman in C Erik McCoy, and the Chiefs being without all of their best weapons, this has the makings of a defensive slug fest Monday night.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Cowboys/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh ML -125

The Pittsburgh Steelers have one of the best defenses in the NFL while the Dallas Cowboys have one of the worst.  That's the biggest reason I am on the Steelers on the Money Line Sunday night as they host the Cowboys.

The Steelers rank 2nd in scoring defense at 13.2 points per game, 4th in total defense at 261.2 yards per game and 6th at 5.1 yards per play allowed.  The Cowboys rank 26th in scoring defense at 26.0 points per game, 26th in total defense at 355.2 yards per game and 23rd at 5.8 yards per play allowed.  The Cowboys are 13th in total offense at 330.8 yards per game while the Steelers are 18th at 317.8 yards per game, so there's not as big of a gap between these offenses as what is being perceived.

The Cowboys were already terrible defensively when they had their two best pass rushers in Micah Parsons and Dexter Lawrence healthy.  But now that's not even the case any more as the Cowboys lost both Lawrence and Parsons to injuries last week against the Giants.  Both will not play this week.  CB Calen Carson is questionable, and they were already without their best CB in DaRon Bland to the IR.  Things are getting worse before they get better for this Dallas defense.

We saw the Cowboys get shredded by a Ravens team that runs a similar read-option offense to the Steelers two weeks ago.  The Ravens rushed for 274 yards on them.  Justin Fields and company will be able to get whatever they want on the ground.  Fields is playing well, completing 70.6% of his passes with a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 145 yards and 3 scores through four games.  He threw for 312 yards and a TD in trying to lead the comeback against the Colts last week to prove he can do it when he has to throw it.

The Cowboys were fortunate to beat the lowly Giants 20-15 last week.  Daniel Jones didn't get much help from his receivers with several key drops that prevented points.  He went 29-of-40 passing for 281 yards against the Cowboys.  The Giants held this Dallas offense in check as well with just 293 total yards.  This is a one-dimensional Dallas offense that cannot run the football, which bodes well for the Steelers, who rank 8th in the NFL in pass defense allowing just 174.5 yards per game through the air.  This is a terrible matchup for the injury-ravaged Cowboys.  Mike Tomlin is 8-2 ATS in his last 10 games off a loss.  Bet the Steelers on the Money Line Sunday night.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Giants +6

This is a terrible spot for the Seattle Seahawks.  They just played the late game on Monday Night Football against the Detroit Lions.  Now they have to travel back to Seattle and play on a short week hosting the New York Giants Sunday afternoon.

Making matters worse is this is a sandwich spot for the Seahawks.  They have an even bigger game on deck against the 49ers on Thursday and some of their focus will be on that game, especially when it comes to handling all their injuries.  They won't be fully focused on the Giants this week, and as a result I think they are on upset alert.

This is a very favorable spot for the Giants, who played the Cowboys last Thursday.  So they have had a mini bye week coming into this one to get healthy and prepared to face the Seahawks.  Sitting at 1-3 on the season, the Giants are looking at this game as a must-win.  The Seahawks sit at 3-1 and alone in first place in the NFC West, so they aren't looking at this as a must-win.

The Seahawks are a fraudulent team that got off to a 3-0 start against the easiest schedule in the NFL.  They beat the Broncos and rookie QB Bo Nix 26-20 as 6.5-point home favorites in Week 1.  They needed OT to beat the Patriots 23-20 as 3-point road favorites in Week 2.  Then they had to fly all the way back to Seattle and took advantage of a short-handed Dolphins team in a 24-3 victory as 4-point favorites.  The Dolphins were starting Skyler Thompson at QB, and he got hurt and they were down to third-stringer Tim Boyle in the second half.

That's why I faded them last week and took the Lions -4.  It was a lot of travel for the Seahawks and they weren't as good as their 3-0 record.  That proved to be the case as the Lions beat them 42-29.  Jared Goff went a perfect 18-of-18 passing for 292 yards and two touchdowns against what is a really banged up, tired Seattle defense that is lacking depth.

Five starters are questionable heading into this one in DE Leonard Williams, LB Uchenna Nwosu, LB Jerome Baker, LB Boye Mafe and FS Julian Love.  FS Jerrick Reed II is out, NT Cameron Young is out and DE Byron Murphy II is questionable.  The Seahawks have a very poor offensive line, and the strength of the Giants is their defensive line, so they will make life tough on Geno Smith in this one.

I like what I've seen from Daniel Jones the last three weeks.  After a 28-6 loss to Minnesota in Week 1 which doesn't look as bad now with the Vikings sitting at 4-0 with wins over the Packers, 49ers and Texans since, the Giants have been much more competitive the last three weeks.  

They lost 21-18 at Washington only because they lost their FG kicker to injury prior to the game, and it cost them at least a shot at OT and likely a win.  They won 21-15 at Cleveland as 6.5-point dogs in Week 2 even after spotting the Browns a TD to start the game after a fumbled KO return.  They gave the Cowboys all they wanted last week in a 20-15 loss as 5.5-point home dogs, and drops by New York receivers were the culprit.  They held Dallas' high-powered offense to less than 300 total yards.

The Giants have historically been a much better road team than a home team over the last decade-plus, and that's the case again this season.  They were very competitive against the Commanders and Browns on the road and performed poorly against the Vikings and Cowboys at home.  The New York fans just aren't that gracious to this team at home, and sometimes it's just better for these players to get away from it by going on the road.

The Giants are extremely healthy compared to most teams at this point in the season.  Star WR Malik Nabers did suffer a concussion against the Cowboys last week, but the average time missed is 8 days for concussions, and since they played last Thursday they will have 10 days in between games.  He should be back, and he has made all the difference for this offense.  Nabers has 35 receptions for 386 yards and 3 TD through four games.  The Giants are good enough to give the Seahawks a run for their money considering the good spot for them and the awful spot for the home team.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Browns/Commanders OVER 44

The Washington Commanders delivered 16 straight scoring drives beginning from Week 1 through their first two drives of Week 4 against Arizona.  They have punted just once in the last three weeks.  They have three straight wins over the Giants, Bengals and Cardinals and they are much better than they get credit for.

Jayden Daniels has delivered more scoring drives (23) than incompletions (19) through his first four games.  Daniels set the NFL record with 82.1% completions through the first four weeks of the season.  He has thrown for 897 yards with a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.5 yards per attempt, and he has rushed for 218 yards and 4 scores to boot.  Daniels is making all the right decisions right now.

Cleveland had the worst scoring defense in the entire NFL on the road last season.  The Raiders had the worst rushing attack in the NFL heading into their game with Cleveland last week.  They promptly rushed for 152 yards and 5.2 per carry against Cleveland last week.  The Commanders are going to be able to run it up the middle on the Browns, and that is going to open the field for Daniels to continue to thrive.

No question this Cleveland offense hasn't looked good, and a lot of that has to do with offensive line injuries and missing TD David Njoku.  They could get some pieces back on the offensive line this week, plus Njoku is expected to return.  They should have their best offensive output of the season against a Washington defense that ranks 25th in scoring at 25.5 points per game, 27th in total defense at 357.0 yards per game and 31st at 6.4 yards per play allowed.  

Washington is a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  They are 3-1 OVER in all games this season with 56 or more combined points in the three overs.  They would be 4-0 OVER if not for the Giants losing their kicker in a game that would have been tied 21-21 at the end of regulation if the Giants kicked extra points on all three of their TD's.  I see Washington getting to at least 27 points and Cleveland getting to at least 20 in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. 

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Commanders -3

The Washington Commanders delivered 16 straight scoring drives beginning from Week 1 through their first two drives of Week 4 against Arizona.  They have punted just once in the last three weeks.  They have three straight wins over the Giants, Bengals and Cardinals and they are much better than they get credit for.

Jayden Daniels has delivered more scoring drives (23) than incompletions (19) through his first four games.  Daniels set the NFL record with 82.1% completions through the first four weeks of the season.  He has thrown for 897 yards with a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.5 yards per attempt, and he has rushed for 218 yards and 4 scores to boot.  Daniels is making all the right decisions right now.

The same cannot be said for Deshaun Watson and the Cleveland Browns.  They are 1-3 this season with their lone win coming against the only remaining winless team in the Jacksonville Jaguars.  They weren't able to beat a depleted Raiders team last week that was without their two best players in WR Davante Adamas and DE Maxx Crosby.  They lost 20-16 despite getting lucky fumble return TD on defense.

Watson has been abysmal.  He is averaging just 4.9 yards per attempt with a 4-to-3 TD/INT ratio.  Of course, it hurts that his offensive line is more banged up than any other offensive line in the league.  Seven offensive linemen are on the injury report as they have been without LT Jedrick Willis, RT Zack Conklin and now they lost C Ethan Pocic to an injury against the Raiders.  It's possible some guys return this week, but even if they do I still like the Commanders.

Washington has compiled a 3-1 record despite playing three of their first four games on the road.  They are 1-0 at home scoring on all seven drives against the Giants.  Fans are thirsty for a winner in Washington, and they will turn out to support Daniels and company in a big way Sunday afternoon.  It will be the best home-field advantage the Commanders have had since Robert Griffin III was stealing the show in his prime.

Cleveland had the worst scoring defense in the entire NFL on the road last season.  The Raiders had the worst rushing attack in the NFL heading into their game with Cleveland last week.  They promptly rushed for 152 yards and 5.2 per carry against Cleveland last week.  The Commanders are going to be able to run it up the middle on the Browns, and that is going to open the field for Daniels to continue to thrive.  

Oddsmakers are simply too slow to adjust to the fact that the Commanders are a contender, while the Browns are a dead team walking with all their injuries. It seems as though teammates don't even like Deshaun Watson, which is understandable.  This line should be much closer to -7 than -3.  Bet the Commanders Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Panthers/Bears OVER 42

The Carolina Panthers are a dead nuts OVER team right now with Andy Dalton at quarterback and arguably the worst defense in the NFL.  The Panthers combined for 58 points with the Bengals last week and 58 points with the Raiders in the game prior in Dalton's two starts at quarterback.

They put up 36 points on the Raiders with 437 total yards as Dalton threw for 319 yards and 3 touchdowns.  They put up 24 points on the Bengals behind 375 total yards and 220 passing and 2 touchdowns from Darnold.  Simply put, Dave Canales finally has a competent quarterback to run his offense.

But the Panthers are going to have to win shootouts if they are going to be competitive.  They rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense allowing 32.2 points per game.  Things are getting worse before they get better due to injuries.  They just lost LB Shaq Thomspn to injury last week.  Fellow LB Josey Jewell is questionable after suffering an injury.  NT Shy Tuttle is questionable after missing the last couple games.  DE Derrick Brown is on IR, and four key secondary pieces are on IR.

Chicago QB Caleb Williams is in line for his best game yet this week.  He went 17-of-23 passing against a bad Rams defense last week and led the Bears to 24 points.  He just got WR Keenan Allen back from injury and now has his full compliment of weapons.  De'Andre Swift finally got going with 93 rushing yards on 16 attempts last week.  I think the Bears can get to 24-plus in this one, and the Panthers should get 20-plus, thus this 42-point total is too low.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Bucs/Falcons NFC South ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta ML -120

I like the spot for the Atlanta Falcons this week.  They sit at 2-2 on the season trailing the Tampa Bay Bucs (3-1) for first place in the NFC South.  They don't want to fall essentially three games behind with a loss, so they will be max motivated for a win.

I like the fact that the Falcons played at home on Sunday and get to stay at home, so there is no travel involved.  That is crucial for them on this short week.  The Bucs don't have the same luxury having to travel up from Tampa Bay, and it's always tougher on the road team for these short week games.

The Falcons are also a lot healthier than the Bucs right now.  It looks like the Falcons will get RT Kaleb McGary back this week as he returned to practice on a limited basis Tuesday.  RB Bijan Robinson and WR Ray-Ray McCloud III also got in limited practices.  The only key player the Falcons will likely be missing is ILB Troy Anderson, who missed practice Tuesday after suffering a knee injury last week.

The Bucs have nine starters either questionable or out, and four backups either questionable or out.  WR Jalen McMillan, WR Trey Palmer, DL Calijah Kancey and S Antoine Winfield all did not practice on Tuesday and are likely out.  WR Mike Williams, OT Tristan Wirfs and NT Vita Vea all got in limited practices and are likely to go.  The Bucs placed ILB SirVocea Dennis on injured reserve.

The Bucs are getting too much respect for beating the Eagles 33-16 last week.  That was an Eagles team missing their two best weapons in AJ Brown and DaVante Smith plus their best offensive linemen in LT Lane Johnson.  The Eagles were handicapped offensively and it showed.  Keep in mind the Bucs lost to the Broncos 26-7 the previous week, and they were outgained by 463 to 216 by the Lions in a fraudulent Week 2 win.  They have benefited from playing three of their first four games at home.

The Falcons have been impressive the last three weeks.  They upset the Eagles 22-21 on the road in Week 2, and that was an Eagles team that was a lot healthier at the time than the one the Bucs faced last week.  They were a missed pass interference call away from likely upsetting the Kansas City Chiefs at home in a 22-17 defeat.  And last week they gutted out a 26-24 home win over the New Orleans Saints.  They got two non-offensive touchdowns in the win, but they still outgained the Saints 6.2 to 5.2 yards per play for the game, so it wasn't as fluky as a lot of people are making it out to be.

The motivation, the situation and the injuries favor Atlanta in this one.  Bet the Falcons on the Money Line Thursday.

15* Seahawks/Lions ABC ANNIHILATOR Detroit -4

The Detroit Lions will be max motivated tonight.  They want revenge from a 37-31 (OT) loss to the Seahawks in 2023 and a 48-45 loss in 2022.  In fact, they have lost six straight to the Seahawks in this series.  They are also trailing the 3-0 Seahawks in the NFC standings, plus they have a bye on deck next week, so they will be 'all in' for a win here tonight.

The Seahawks have played the easiest schedule in the NFL to this point.  They beat the Broncos and rookie QB Bo Nix 26-20 as 6.5-point home favorites in Week 1.  They needed OT to beat the Patriots 23-20 as 3-point road favorites in Week 2.  Then they had to fly all the way back to Seattle and took advantage of a short-handed Dolphins team in a 24-3 victory as 4-point favorites.  The Dolphins were starting Skyler Thompson at QB, and he got hurt and they were down to third-stringer Tim Boyle in the second half.

To say this will be a step up in class for the Seahawks would be a massive understatement.  Now they face a Detroit Lions team with elite numbers thus far and should be 3-0 if not for going 1-for-7 in the red zone in an upset loss to the Bucs.  The Lions rank 4th in total offense at 399.7 yards per game and 10th in total defense at 293.3 yards per game.  Their improvement on defense this season is the reason the Lions are a real Super Bowl contender.

The Seahawks have a solid offense this season, but their offensive line is a weakness and this Detroit pass rush led by Aidan Hutchinson will be a problem for them.  Seattle has a defensive-minded head coach in Mike McDonald and a solid defense, but this is a defense that is missing several key players that the Lions will exploit, especially up the middle trying to stop the run.  

Seattle will be without starting DE Leonard Williams, starting WLB Uchenna Nwoso and starting SLB Boye Mafe.  They are also without two key depth pieces in NT Cameron Young and DE Byron Murhpy II.  I think Detroit will wear them down with their running game, which has produced 163 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry thus far this season.  Bet the Lions Monday.

20* Bills/Ravens NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Baltimore ML -140

I think the Bills and Ravens are two pretty equal teams despite their records.  Buffalo is 3-0 while Baltimore is 1-2.  And those records are the reason we are getting the Ravens at a discount, and also the reason the Ravens will be the much more motivated team knowing they can't afford to fall to 1-3 and three games behind the Bills with a loss.

The Bills are 3-0 while benefitting from a very easy schedule.  They needed a double-digit comeback to beat the best team they played in Arizona 34-28 as 7-point favorites in Week 1.  They took advantage of three interceptions by Tagovailoa and an injury to him in their 31-10 win in Week 2.  And last week they took advantage of a banged up Jaguars team that played man-to-man defense the entire game against Josh Allen, who owns man-to-man defense. This will be far and away the toughest challenge of the season for the Bills, plus they are on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football.

The Ravens have played the much tougher schedule and could easily be 3-0.  They lost 27-20 to the Chiefs in Week 1 despite outgaining them 452 to 353.  They lost 26-23 to the Raiders despite outgaining them 383 to 260 in Week 2.  And last week they showed that sense of urgency that they will show today as well, jumping on the Cowboys 28-6 going into the 4th quarter before calling off the dogs.  That was a misleading 28-25 final as the Cowboys scored three times in garbage time.  The Ravens had 456 total yards on the Cowboys.

The Ravens have elite numbers, ranking 1st in total offense at 430.3 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play.  They allow 341.7 yards per game and that number would be much loser if not for those yards given up to the Cowboys in garbage time.  What makes these numbers that much more impressive is that they have faced the much tougher schedule.  Buffalo is only outgaining teams by 42 yards per game against a much softer schedule.

The Ravens will play more zone coverage and make life tougher on Allen and this limited Buffalo offense.  The Ravens are the best rushing team in the NFL, and the weakness of the Bills is up the middle stopping the run.  They are wtihout their two best LB's in Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano.  They are also without CB Taron Johnson.  The Bills haven't faced a rushing offense nearly this potent this season, so I like the matchup for the Ravens a lot in this one.

Lamar Jackson is 23-7 ATS as a favorite of -3 or less or an underdog in his career.  Bet the Ravens on the Money Line Sunday night.

15* Browns/Raiders AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Las Vegas ML -120

This is the one premium pick Sunday I likely won't get a better number on game day.  I went in on the Raiders ML -120 when I found out the injury situation for the Browns.  But since I published this pick the Raiders have gotten some bad injury news as they will be without both WR Davante Adams and DE Maxx Crosby, which are two of their best players.  That came out of nowhere.

I still think the Raiders are good enough to win this game with what they have.  The Browns have seven offensive linemen on the injury report, and OL injuries are a big reason Deshaun Watson has looked as poorly as he has.  They will be without their two starting offensive tackles in Willis and Conklin, plus TE David Njoku is out again this week as well.

Watson is completing just 57.8% of his passes while averaging 4.8 yards per attempt through three games.  They lost 33-17 to the Cowboys at home in Week 1, were fortunate to beat the Jaguars 18-13 in Week 2, and were upset 21-15 by the Giants at home in Week 3.  Those performances against the Giants and Jaguars don't look as good now with those teams a combined 1-5, and the Cowboys are in rough shape this season as well.  Those are three of the worst defenses in the NFL the Browns got to face, and the Browns still rank just 31st in total offense at 248.0 yards per game and 31st at 4.1 yards per play.

The Raiders had every opportunity to beat the Chargers in a 16-10 home loss in Week 1.  They pulled off the 26-23 upset at Baltimore as 8.5-point dogs in Week 2, and that win has aged very well.  Last week they suffered an obvious letdown coming back home from that Baltimore win.  They lost 36-22 to the Carolina Panthers, who were rejuvenated with Andy Dalton at QB.

Las Vegas head coach Antonio Pierce called out his players for making 'business decisions' in that loss to the Panthers.  His players love him, and I expect them to respond in a big way here Sunday.  Despite the injuries, I think the Raiders are still good enough to find a way to win this game against the Browns, whose injury situation may be even worse.  DE Myles Garrett isn't right and is playing through injury as well.  Bet the Raiders on the Money Line Sunday.

15* Commanders/Cardinals NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on OVER 48.5

I gave out the OVER 48.5 on Sunday night.  I was on the Commanders/Bengals OVER 47 in the Monday Night Football game and I anticipated a high-scoring game and that this total would open higher. That's what we got with 71 combined points between the Bengals and Commanders.  It has indeed opened higher, but it's still not high enough.  I find value in the OVER at least up to the key number of 51.

The Commanders and Cardinals may very well have the two worst defenses in the NFL.  The Commanders rank 29th in scoring defense, 29th in total defense and 31st in yards per play allowed despite facing two of the worst offenses in the Giants and Bucs.  They are allowing 29.3 points per game, 377.3 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play this season.  They are also dealing with a ton of injuries defensively and have one of the worst secondary's in the NFL.

The Cardinals allowed 34 points to the Bills in their opener.  They had the fortune of playing the Rams who were decimated by injuries on offense in Week 2 and won 41-10.  The Lions moved it up and down the field on them last week with 373 total yards including 187 rushing.  They went ground and pound and just controlled the game with their running game and defense, which is one of the best in the NFL this season.

The Cardinals have faced two elite defenses in the Bills and Lions, and the one game against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Rams they hung 41 points.  They will come close to hanging that on the Commanders as well.  Kyler Murray looks like his old electric self, using his legs a lot more this season to make plays, and he finally has a No. 1 target in Marvin Harrison Jr. who has scored 3 TD in his last two games.  James Conner will have a big game in this one on the ground as well.

This Washington offense has been on fire with Rookie of the Year favorite Jayden Daniels at quarterback.  They became the first team in NFL history to not punt and or turn the ball over once in two consecutive games.  They haven't punted since there was 11 minutes left in the 4th quarter in Week 1 against the Bucs.

In fact, the Commanders have put together 14 straight scoring drives since Week 1 when you throw out them kneeling before the half against the Bengals, who also didn't punt last week.  Daniels went 21-of-23 passing for 254 yards and 2 TD against the Bengals, while also rushing for 39 yards and a score.  He is now completing 80.3% of his passes on the season while also rushing for 171 yards and three scores.

This game has shootout written all over it with two of the best offenses in the NFL up against two of the worst defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Vikings/Packers NFC North ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay ML -125

The Green Bay Packers are likely to get Jordan Love back at QB this week.  If they do, they won't be only -125 favorites on the Money Line, and they will likely be -3 or higher on the spread.  I grabbed this number Sunday night with the anticipation that Love would be back this week.

Either way, the Packers look like a juggernaut this season.  Their offense is loaded and their defense is one of the most improved in the NFL.  They beat the Colts 16-10 in Week 2 with Malik Willis at quarterback.  They beat Tennessee 30-14 in Week 3 as Willis got revenge on his former team.  That was a desperate Titans team looking to avoid an 0-3 start, so it was mighty impressive.

There will be no letdown spot for the Packers here considering they are 2-1 and actually trailing the 3-0 Minnesota Vikings in the division.  And now it's time to 'sell high' on the Vikings, who are getting a lot of hype due to this 3-0 start with a road win over the Giants, and home wins over both the Vikings and Texans.

The Vikings are 3-0 despite only outgaining opponents by 19 yards per game.  I don't think they are as good as their record.  To compare, the Packers are outgaining opponents by 63 yards per game.  Minnesota has had a lot of turnover luck thus far and I don't think it continues this week.  This will be their toughest test of the season against a Packers team that has one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL.  Bet the Packers on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Eagles/Bucs UNDER 46

Injuries to this Philadelphia offense are a big reason I'm on the UNDER 46 here.  I grabbed this number Sunday night anticipating it would get bet down, and we got a great number here because of it.  The total is down to 42.5 and 43 in most places as of this writing Saturday morning.

The Eagles were already without AJ Brown last week.  Then they lost DeVonta Smith and RT Lane Johnson to concussions in an ugly 15-12 win at New Orleans.  They are going to have to get used to trying to win ugly with their running game until they get healthy on offense again.  They will be without Smith this week, and Brown and Johnson are both questionable.

The Bucs have injury problems of their own on offense with WR Jalen McMillan out for this one, and RB Bucky Irving and RT Luke Goedeke questionable.  The Bucs rank 26th in total offense at 277 yards per game.  The Broncos beat them 26-7 last week as their offense was completely held in check.  Now they'll be going up against an improved Philadelphia defense that is hungry for revenge after losing 32-9 to the Bucs in the playoffs last year.  It's a Philadelphia defense that held the Saints to 12 points last week, a Saints offense that was the best in the NFL through two weeks.

The Bucs were without Vita Vea last week and he's arguably their most important defensive player.  Vea is expected to be back this week, and that's huge going up against this one-dimensional Philadelphia rushing attack.  He is one of the best run-stuffers in the NFL.  This is a Tampa Bay defense that held the Lions to 16 points and the Commanders to 20 points, and those are two of the best offenses in the NFL.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Saints/Falcons NFC South ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -1

The Saints were rolling to a 2-0 start with blowout wins over the Cowboys and Panthers.  Everything was looking up for this team, and then a 15-12 home loss to the short-handed Philadelphia Eagles happened last week.  The Saints suffered a ton of key injuries in that loss to boot, and those injuries are a big reason I am fading them today.

The Saints were fortunate to even be in that game against the Eagles, who outgained them 460 to 219, or by 241 total yards.  Giving up 460 yards to the Eagles is a terrible look when you consider they were without star WR AJ Brown, and they lost both WR DeVonta Smith and LT Lane Johnson to concussions.  The Saints basically just needed to stop TE Dallas Goedert on the final drive to seal the win, and they couldn't do it.

The Saints lost two starting offensive linemen in that game last week.  C Erik McCoy was far and away their best offensive lineman, and now he is on IR.  G Cesar Ruiz is out as well.  Things are so bad that the Saints brought in five offensive linemen earlier this week to work out.

The bad injury news for the Saints didn't stop there.  Now their two best playmakers on offense in RB Alvin Kamara and WR Chris Olave are questionable to play Sunday.  Fellow starting WR Cedrick Wilson Jr. is questionable, and backup WR A.J. Perry is out.  Defensively, MLB Demario Davis is out and he hasn't missed a start in 13 years.  He is the leader of their defense and a big blow on that side of the football.

The Atlanta Falcons are remarkably healthy through three games with their main loss being RT Kaleb McGary.  They are also highly motivated for a win this week considering they are trailing the Saints by one game in the NFC South and don't want to fall two games back.  I also like the improvements I've seen from this team since their 18-12 Week 1 home loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Falcons gutted out a 22-21 win at Philadelphia in Week 2 with a huge game-winning drive from Kirk Cousins in the final seconds.  Cousins looked lost in Week 1 against a very good Pittsburgh defense, but he has since looked better each week and this offense has a lot of confidence in him.

Cousins and the Falcons deserved better in a 22-17 home loss to the defending champion Chiefs as 3-point underdogs in Week 3.  The refs missed a pass interference call in the end zone that would have eventually given the Falcons a late lead.  They showed they could play with the defending champs, and while this would usually be the type of loss that could beat a team twice, it won't be this week given the situation.  

The Falcons have to quickly refocus with a division opponent coming to town in the Saints, who they are trailing in the standings.  I expect the Falcons to handle their business against the short-handed Saints in this one.  I grabbed Atlanta -1 as soon as I saw the injury news for the Saints, and I would still play them up to -3.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Bears PK

This is the ultimate 'buy low, sell high' spot.  The Chicago Bears are coming off two consecutive losses on the road to the Texans by 6 and the Colts by 5.  But now they are back home and highly motivated for a victory Sunday afternoon.

The Los Angeles Rams are coming off their shocking 14-point comeback win at home over the San Francisco 49ers as 7-point underdogs.  Off a win against their biggest rivals, this is the ultimate letdown spot for the Rams.

Both results last week were misleading which is providing us line value this week on the Bears as well.  The Bears outgained the Colts 395 to 306 but lost 21-16.  Caleb Willams threw for 363 yards and 2 TD to show what he is capable of, and I think he's in line for his best game of the season this week against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Rams.

The Rams beat the 49ers 27-24 despite getting outgained 425 to 296 by San Francisco.  They had no business winning that game.  This came a week after losing 41-10 at Arizona while getting outgained 489 to 245 by the Cardinals.

Simply put, the Rams have the worst injury situation in the NFL right now.  They are without their two best weapons in Kupp and Nacua.  Their offensive line is banged up, and their defense is banged up and terrible as it is.  The Rams rank dead last in the NFL allowing 425.7 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play this season.

The Bears have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They rank 8th allowing 286.7 yards per game and 9th allowing 5.1 yards per play.  They are 10th in scoring defense at 19.0 points per game as well.  They have the better defense, are the much healthier team, and have home-field advantage, so this game should not be PK.

I locked this line in at PK Sunday night assuming the Bears would take money and they have since with the line up to -3 as of this writing.  I would still play it up to -3.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

20* Cowboys/Giants NFC East No-Brainer on OVER 44

Two of the worst defenses in the NFL square off Thursday night in this matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants.  Both offenses should have plenty of success in this one to get up and OVER 44 combined points, which is a very key number for NFL totals and I'm glad we got this one early.

The OVER is 3-0 in Dallas' three games this season.  They played in a 33-17 shootout with the Browns for 50 combined points in Week 1, a 44-19 shootout with the Saints for 63 combined points in Week 2, and a 28-25 shootout with the Ravens for 53 combined points in Week 3.  It should be more of the same here.

Those are three good defenses they faced and the Cowboys managed to average 25.7 points per game against them.  But they have allowed 372.7 yards per game, 6.2 yards per play and 29.7 points per game.  They are last in the NFL against the run allowing 185.7 rushing yards per game.

The Giants have an improved offense this season with a healthy Daniel Jones and a new favorite target in Malik Nabers, who has 23 receptions for 271 yards and 3 TD.  Wandale Robinson has been a nice compliment with 15 receptions for 123 yards and a score.  And Devin Singletary has rushed for 197 yards and 2 TD while averaging 4.7 per carry.  The Giants should be able to get what they want on the ground, which will open up their passing game.

The Giants allowed 28 points in three quarters to the Vikings in Week 1.  In Week 2, they didn't force a single punt against the Commanders and let them score on all seven of their drives.  Last week they were much better against the Browns as their defensive line took advantage of a banged up Browns offensive line that was missing several starters.  They won't have that luxury this week.

Both defenses are dealing with significant injuries.  The Giants will be without two starting CB's in Dru Phillips and Adoree Jackson, and they already had one of the worst secondary's in the NFL.  That's bad news for them up against the Cowboys, who rank 1st in passing at 269.7 yards per game.  The Cowboys are more of a one-dimensional offense without being able to run the football, and they will be trying to move it through the air.

Dak Prescott has owned the Giants scoring 35 or more points in six of the last 10 meetings.  They have averaged 33.3 points per game in their last 10 meetings.  They will do the heavy lifting for us, but the Giants should be able to keep up that is going to be without DT Jordan Phillips, S Marquese Bell and CB Caelen Carson.  They were already without CB DaRon Bland who has been on IR since the opener.  These are two horrid secondary's right now that will get exposed.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Commanders/Bengals ABC No-Brainer on OVER 47

The Washington Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team.  That was evident in Week 1 when they made Baker Mayfield look like Joe Montana in a 37-20 road loss.  Mayfield completed 24-of-30 passes for 289 yards and 4 TD in the win.

Last week, the Commanders made Daniel Jones look like a respectable QB.  The Giants scored three touchdowns on their defense, but unfortunately their kicker got hurt pregame and they failed on an XP followed by two missed 2-point conversions.  They were also forced to go for it on 4th down without a kicker.  They lost 21-18 to the Commanders.

Washington won that game despite not scoring an offensive TD.  In fact, the Commanders kicked 7 field goals, never had to punt and went 0-for-6 in the red zone.  Jayden Daniels moved the Commanders up and down the field and looks like the best rookie QB in this draft thus far.  He is completing 75.5% of his passes while also rushing for 132 yards and 2 TD through two games.

The Bengals got their offense going last week in a 26-25 loss to the Chiefs.  Now another reinforcement is on the way as WR Tee Higgins will make his season debut Monday night.  This is one of the best offenses in the NFL when Burrow, Chase and Higgins are on the field at the same time, and they should have their way with a Washington defense that will likely prove to be the worst in the NFL this season.

The Commanders are allowing 6.3 yards per play.  The Bengals are also down defensively this season especially with the loss of DT DJ Reader, who is one of the best run stuffers in the league.  This game has shootout written all over it.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Jaguars/Bills ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Jacksonville +6

We'll 'buy low' on the 0-2 Jacksonville Jaguars and 'sell high' on the 2-0 Buffalo Bills.  NFL teams that are 0-2 facing a team that is not 0-2 in Week 3 have gone 53-32-2 ATS over their last 87 tries.  This trend just goes to show that there is serious value backing this 0-2 teams.

The Jaguars are one of my favorite 0-2 teams to back this week.  They could easily be 2-0.  Travis Etienne fumbled going in for a TD that would have given them a 24-7 lead on the Dolphins in Week 1 and put that game away.  Instead, the Dolphins scored on an 80-yard bomb to Tyreke Hill on the next play for a 14-point swing.  The Dolphins went on to win 20-17 on a last-second FG.

Last week, the Jaguars lost 18-13 at home to the Browns.  They had the ball back with a chance to tie or take the lead but took a safety after a great punt to the 1-yard line.  They actually outgained the Browns 323 to 297 for the game and probably should have won that game as well.  They are the kings of one-possession games, so getting 6 points here is a great value.

The Bills beat the Cardinals 34-28 in Week 1 and crushed the Dolphins 31-10 in Week 2.  But that win over the Dolphins was pretty misleading considering Miami actually outgained them 351 to 247.  The Dolphins just gave it away with 3 interceptions by Tua Tagovailoa, who was eventually knocked out with a concussion.

Buffalo injuries are a big reason I am fading them this week.  They are going to be without LB Terrell Bernard and CB Taron Johnson, which are two of their best defenders.  They were already without LB Matt Milano.  The Jaguars should find plenty of success against a Bills defense that on paper looks as bad as they have had in the Sean McDermott era.  And I like this improved Jacksonville defense that actually one of the best pass rushes in the NFL this season.  This game is likely decided by a FG either way.  Bet the Jaguars Monday.

15* Ravens/Cowboys Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 47

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team.  The OVER is 4-0 in Cowboys last four games overall dating back to last season with 48 or more combined points in all four.  They went for 50 combined points against the Browns on the road in Week 1 and 63 combined points against the Saints in Week 2 at home.

The Baltimore Ravens also look like a dead nuts OVER team this season.  Their offense is loaded once again and players are used to Jeff Monken's systems in Year 2.  But their defense has taken a big step back since losing cooardinator Mike McDonald to the Seattle Seahawks.  Many believe he is the best defensive mind in the game.

The OVER is 2-0 in Ravens two games this season combining for 47 points with the Chiefs only after they had a TD called back on the final play of the game with Isaiah Likely's foot on the line.  They racked up 452 total yards on a very good Kansas City defense.  They combined for 49 points with the Raiders last week and had 383 total yards in that defeat.

It will be perfect conditions inside AT&T Stadium and the Cowboys are even more of an OVER team at home.  I think both offenses have their way against these two suspect defenses, and this total of 47 is too short.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Lions/Cardinals OVER 50.5

The Arizona Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL and one of the worst defenses.  We've seen that play out the first two weeks with a 34-28 loss to the Bills and a 41-10 win over the Rams that both flew over the total.

The Detroit Lions have a much better offense than they have shown thus far.  They keep shooting themselves in the foot, and that was definitely the case last week when they managed just 16 points against the Bucs despite 463 total yards.  They went 1-of-7 in the red zone, and that's not going to happen again.  This Detroit offense will get right this week against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in Arizona.

Detroit ranks 2nd in total offense while Arizona ranks 7th currently.  Both teams have had a ton of success on the ground and that will be the case again this week to open up the passing game.  Arizona is rushing for 177.5 yards per game and 5.5 per carry, while Detroit is rushing for 151 yards per game and 5.2 per carry.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Chargers/Steelers UNDER 37.5

The Los Angeles Chargers and Pittsburgh Steelers are both dead nuts UNDER teams.  Both are run-heavy offenses with two of the best defenses in the NFL.  The clock keeps moving with how much both teams like to run the football.

The Chargers are averaging 197.5 rushing yards per game but just 135 passing yards per game through two games.  The Steelers are averaging 260.5 total yards per game including 139 rushing and 121.5 passing.  These two offenses are setting football back years.

They can afford to be that bad on offense when you play defense like they do.  The Chargers are allowing 227.5 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play this season.  The Steelers are allowing 260.5 yards per game this season.  Both defenses are pretty healthy as well.

Los Angeles QB Justin Herbert suffered an ankle injury against the Panthers last week and his status is in question.  Also, one of his top receivers in Joshua Palmer is questionable as well.  Their offense will be handcuffed even more than it already is with a hobbled Herbert.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the four games involving these two teams this season with 32, 29, 28 and 19 combined points.  This total of 37.5 is too high for a game involving these two teams.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Eagles/Saints NFC ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans ML -125

Every year there is one team that comes out of nowhere to exceed expectations in a big way.  That team in 2024 is the New Orleans Saints.  It just took Klint Kubiak to get the most out of Derek Carr and this offense, and Carr has been unleashed this season under Kubiak's watch.

Amazingly, the Saints have actually scored points on each of their first 15 possessions this season on drives started by Carr.  They blasted the Panthers 47-10 in Week 1, and many just credited that to bad Carolina instead of good New Orleans.  What are they going to say now after the Saints blasted the Cowboys 44-19 on the road in Week 2?

Fans are more excited about this team than they have been since Drew Brees was still around contending for Super Bowls.  The lowest ticket price to get into this game Sunday is $162, and this will be their biggest and loudest crowd in a long time.  It's going to get back to being one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL.

While I am a believer in the Saints, I am pretty down on the Eagles as well.  I faded them with the Falcons +6 on Monday because they were going to be without AJ Brown.  Brown had 106 receptions for 1,456 yards and 7 TD last year, and he had 5 for 119 and a touchdown against the Packers in the opener.  He was out last week, and he's likely to be out again this week, and the Eagles just aren't that explosive without him.

Many expected this Philadelphia defense to be improved.  But that just hasn't been the case.  The Eagles rank 30th in total defense allowing 399.5 yards per game and 31st allowing 7.1 yards per play.  Now they must face a New Orleans offense that ranks 3rd in the NFL at 405.5 yards per game and 2nd at 7.0 yards per play.  I just don't see the Eagles getting enough stops to stay in this game.  Bet the Saints on the Money Line Sunday.

15* Texans/Vikings Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston ML -132

The Houston Texans are one of the most complete teams in the NFL.  They are 2-0 this season while the Minnesota Vikings are also 2-0.  But they aren't created equal.  Houston is the real contender between these teams, while I believe Minnesota is a pretender.

The Vikings beat the Giants 28-6 on the road in Week 1.  They came back and upset the 49ers 23-17 in Week 2.  That win over the 49ers sets them up for a letdown spot, and I just don't think they can overcome some key injuries to be able to beat this awesome Texans team this week.

WR Jordan Addison is out as is TE TJ Hockenson.  WR Justin Jefferson suffered a quad contusion that knocked him out of the 49ers game.  While he is expected to play this week, he won't be 100%. Sam Darnold is really running out of weapons in a hurry, and I just don't think he can keep pace with this high-octane Houston offense.

I think the fact that the Texans failed to cover the spread in their first two games is keeping this line shorter than it should be.  The Colts scored on a 4th down in the final seconds to lost 29-27 as 3-point dogs.  The Bears kicked a FG late to cover as 6.5-point dogs in a 19-13 defeat.  This was after the Texans fumbled on a 1st-and-goal from the 3 that would have put the game away.

Houston's numbers have been dominant.  They are averaging 363.5 yards per game on offense and allowing 254 yards per game on defense, outgaining opponents by over 109.5 yards per game.  I am really excited about their defense as they have one of the best pass-rushes and secondary's in the league.  They already have 9 sacks on the season.  Bet the Texans on the Money Line Sunday.

20* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH on Tennessee Titans -1.5

The Tennessee Titans are 0-2 but should be 2-0.  That 0-2 record has them undervalued, and I like backing 0-2 teams in Week 3 against a team that isn't also 0-2 because it has been very profitable over time, going 53-32-2 ATS in the last 87 tries.

The Titans didn't allow a single offensive TD in their 24-17 loss to the Bears in Week 1 and blew a 17-3 halftime lead.  They gave up a blocked punt that was returned for a TD, and Will Levis thew an inexplicable interception that was returned for a TD.

They had another punt blocked last week against the Jets in their 24-17 home loss.  Levis also committed another inexplicable turnover, trying to lateral the ball inside the New York 5-yard line that the Jets eventually recovered.

Levis has plenty of weapons with the additions of Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard to go along with DeAndre Hopkins and Tajae Spears.  The offense will be fine once he quits making boneheaded mistakes.

But the reason I love this Titans team is their defense, which ranks 1st in the NFL allowing 206.5 yards per game and 3.9 yards per play through two games.  They added some great pieces in the offseason including shutdown corner L'Jarius Sneed.  They have an elite secondary, and Jeffery Simmons remains one of the biggest game-wreckers in the league up front.

The Packers suffered a big blow when Jordan Love got hurt in the final seconds of a 34-29 loss to the Eagles in Brazil in Week 1.  Malik Willis, who was brought in from the Titans to replace him, had to start Week 2.

It was a perfect matchup for the Packers against an Indianapolis Colts team that has now allowed over 200 rushing yards in consecutive games.  The Colts are decimated on defense, and the Eagles clearly have some problems as well.  Anthony Richardson also gifted the Packers 3 interceptions.

This will be a big step up in class for Willis, and the Titans will force him to have to try and beat them through the air instead of on the ground.  Tennessee is only allowing 92.5 rushing yards per game.  

I think this line has remained so low this week not only because the Titans are 0-2, but also because Jordan Love returned to practice on a limited basis.  It is a complete smokescreen as there's less than a 10% chance Love returns this week.  He is more likely to return in Week 4 or Week 5.  They aren't in a hurry to rush him back either after stealing one from the Colts last week.  It might be a different story if they were 0-2 instead of 1-1.

The Titans know Willis' tendencies and that will be a big advantage for them.  I love the spot with their backs against the wall here against the Packers who will be starting the worst quarterback in the NFL this week.  Bet the Titans Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on Denver Broncos +7

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the 0-2 Denver Broncos and 'sell high' on the 2-0 Tampa Bay Bucs.  0-2 teams facing teams that aren't also 0-2 in Week 3 have gone 53-32-2 ATS in their last 85 tries.  I love this system for Week 3, and the Broncos fit it as good as anyone this week.

This is more a fade of the Bucs than a play on the Broncos.  This is the ultimate letdown spot for Tampa Bay.  They are going off a shocking 20-16 road win at Detroit as 7.5-point dogs.  They got their playoff revenge after getting knocked out by the Lions last year.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat the 0-2 Broncos this week, and they'll fall flat on their faces.

The Bucs had no business winning that game as the Lions outgained the Bucks 463 to 216, or by 247 total yards.  But the Lions went 1-of-7 scoring TD's in the red zone, and Jared Goff had a couple awful interceptions.  They let the Bucs off the hook by trying to pass too much.

This Tampa Bay defense is in shambles right now.  They are missing several starters in the secondary, they just lost their biggest run stuffer in DT Vita Vea, and they just lost one of their best pass rushers in DE Calijah Kancey.  This is one of the worst defenses in the NFL in their current form.

Rookie Bo Nix couldn't have faced two tougher defenses to start his NFL career.  He went on the road and lost 26-20 to the Seahawks, and last week he lost to the Steelers 13-6 at home.  It's safe to say Nix is in line for his best game of the season by far this week against this soft, banged-up Tampa Bay defense.  The Bucs have no business laying this big of a number given all their injuries, and in this clear letdown spot off the Detroit win last week.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

20* Patriots/Jets AFC East No-Brainer on New York -6

The New York Jets needed some time to gel offensively with Aaron Rodgers.  They were a little out of sync in Week 1 and understandably so, losing 32-19 on the road to the San Francisco 49ers as 3.5-point dogs.  They have been undervalued since, and continue to be as only 6-point home favorites over the New England Patriots Thursday.

The Jets had a big second half offensively to pull away for a 24-17 win as 4-point road favorites at Tennessee.  Breece Hall scored on a 26-yard TD pass from Rodgers, and Rodgers made a great check at the line to spring Braelon Allen for the game-winning 20-yard TD run with under 5 minutes left in the 4th.

Now the Jets get to play in front of their home fans for the first time this season Thursday night.  It's safe to say it is going to be a madhouse as fans have waited two years to see Rodgers in person.  This will be one of the best home-field advantages of the entire season what the Patriots will have to go up against on the road Thursday night.

Everyone thought the Patriots would be the worst team in the NFL this season.  Instead, they upset the Bengals 16-10 in Week 1 and took Seattle to OT in a 23-20 home loss in Week 2.  Now the Patriots have to travel on a short week off that OT game, so they will be extra fatigued for this one.  They are overvalued after going 1-0-1 ATS thus far.  Teams off an OT game with 4 or less days' rest against team that's not also off an OT game are 3-23 ATS since 2002.

The Patriots are also dealing with a ton of injuries.  Four of their starting five offensive linemen are on the injury report.  They just lost MLB Ja'Whuan Bentley to a shoulder injury last week and that's a big blow, especially after losing Matthew Judon to the Falcons in the offseason.  The Jets did lose LB Jermaine Johnson last week, but CJ Mosley's injury was minor, and CB CJ Reed could return this week.

While both teams have pretty good defenses, there is a big discrepancy on offense.  The Patriots have arguably the worst offense in the NFL if it's not the Carolina Panthers, which is may not be now that Andy Dalton is starting.  The Patriots are a one-dimensional running team who are easy to stop.  They have no weapons outside, and QB Jacoby Brissett has only been looking at TE Hunter Hentry almost exclusively thus far.  He has 15 receptions and nobody else has more than 8 this season.

The Jets will get better every week offensively and will turn into a Top 10 offense in my opinion.  They are just too loaded everywhere not to be.  They had massive upgrades on their offensive line in the offseason, brought in WR Mike Williams to go along with Breece Hall, Allen Lazard and Garrett Wilson, and of course arguably the biggest upgrade at QB in NFL history.  The Jets should be at least 7-point home favorites today given all the advantages they have.  We'll take advantage and lay the 6 points.  Bet the Jets Thursday.

15* Falcons/Eagles ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta +6

The Atlanta Falcons got a lot of hype coming into the season.  That led to them taking a lot of money in Week 1 as 4-point home favorites against the Pittsburgh Steelers.  They lost outright 18-10 despite holding the Steelers without a single touchdown.

The Steelers went on to beat the Broncos 13-6 on the road in Week 2 and clearly have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  It was a tough spot for Kirk Cousins in his return from an Achilles.  He looked a little hesitant which is to be expected with that much time off and thinking about the injury.

I expect Cousins and the Falcons to be much more comfortable in Week 2.  He is loaded with weapons on offense and playing behind one of the league's best O-Lines, plus the defense will be one of the most improved in the NFL with the additions of LB Judon and S Simmons just before the season.

The Eagles are actually in a bit of a tough spot returning home from Brazil following their 34-29 shootout win over the Green Bay Packers.  Their defense was their undoing last year, and it doesn't look much better this season already after allowing 29 points and 414 total yards to the Packers, including 163 rushing on 21 carries for an average of 7.8 yards per carry.  Bijan Robinson and the Falcons should have plenty of success on the ground in this one as well.

But one of the biggest reasons I'm on the Falcons is because the Eagles will be without their best offensive weapon in AJ Brown.  He was announced out on Sunday, and as soon as I saw the news I put in the Falcons +6.  Brown had 106 receptions for 1,456 yards and 7 TD last year, and he had 5 for 119 and a touchdown against the Packers in the opener.  

His loss is a huge blow because this Philadelphia offense was tough to tame with Brown, Smith and Barkley, but missing one of those three studs will make them much easier to defend.  This game will go down to the wire tonight, so catching 6 points is a very nice value.  Bet the Falcons Monday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Denver Broncos +3

I love the spot for the Denver Broncos and hate the spot for the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.  The Steelers will be playing their 2nd consecutive road game and will have to play in altitude in Denver, and I question how well they will handle it when it gets to the 4th quarter with poor conditioning this early in the season.

The Steelers are getting too much respect from the books off their upset win at Atlanta last week.  That was a rebuilding Falcons team with a new head coach, new coordinators and an aging QB in Kirk Cousins coming off an Achilles injury.

The Steelers managed to win that game 18-10 despite not scoring a single touchdown.  Fields did a good job of managing the game, and the Steelers relied on their defense, which is no doubt one of the best in the league.  But I think it was more about bad Falcons than good Steelers.  This is still one of the worst offenses in the NFL.

The Broncos were in a tough spot in Week 1 sending rookie Bo Nix into the 12th man to face the Seattle Seahawks.  Seattle has one of the best defenses in the NFL as well, so that will be good preparation for Nix this week.  He held it together well in a 26-20 loss, and he will be much more comfortable in front of his home fans this week.

The Broncos have a pretty good defense and one that will be able to contain Fields now that they have a week to prepare for him.  The Falcons didn't have that luxury last week as they prepared to face Russell Wilson.  Well, Wilson wasn't ruled out until Saturday, so the Falcons didn't have much time to prepare for the dual-threat in Fields.  They still managed to hold the Steelers without an offensive TD.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 7-0 SU in the last seven meetings.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Jacksonville Jaguars -3

Travis Etienne was going in for a TD that would have made it 24-7 Jaguars in the 3rd quarter against the Dolphins in Week 1 and put the game away.  Instead, he fumbled into the end zone, and the Dolphins scored on a 80-yard bomb on the next play that totally changed the game.  The Dolphins went on to win 20-17.

No question the Jaguars will be pissed off in practice all week and will be looking to take out their frustration on the Browns this week.  The Browns looked like one of the worst teams in the NFL in Week 1 in their 33-17 home loss to the Cowboys.  Deshaun Watson looks broken, the offensive line is banged up, they lost TE David Njoku to injury during the game, and they have other key injuries on defense.

Watson had one of the worst games by an NFL quarterback in years.  He went 26-of-45 passing for 169 yards with one TD and 2 INT.  He averaged just 3.8 yards per attempt and was sacked 6 times.  He is dealing with a ton of distractions right now with two tragedies plus another sexual assault allegation.  I think the team as a whole is just fed up with him right now to boot.

The Jaguars were on their way to winning the AFC South last season before Trevor Lawrence got hurt.  They made some great moves this offseason to upgrade their offensive line, the skill positions and the defensive line.  They were putting Tua under pressure all game, and they are a much better offensive team than they showed against the Dolphins.  I think Lawrence and company will score at will on a Cleveland defense that allowed more points per game on the road last season than any other team in the NFL.  I don't think Watson can keep up, especially since he'll be playing behind a banged up O-Line and without Njoku.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Seattle Seahawks -3

The New England Patriots were the consensus worst team in the NFL coming into the season.  But after upsetting the Cincinnati Bengals on the road last week, the Patriots are now getting some respect.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Patriots this week.

The Bengals are notorious for disappointing performances in Week 1.  It's because they don't take the preseason seriously and they are never ready.  They were without WR Tee Higgins, and WR Ja'Marr Chase is disgruntled without a new contract.  Joe Burrow is visibly injured as his wrist just isn't right.  And their defense is down a couple notches from a few years ago, especially since they lost run-stuffer DJ Reader, which allowed the Patriots to move the ball on the ground against them.  I think that 16-10 upset was way more bad Bengals than good Patriots.

The Patriots have the worst offense in the NFL.  They have the worst set of skill positions players, a shaky offensive line, and one of the worst QB situations since they are going with career backup Jacoby Brissett.  Brissett went 15-of-24 for 121 yards against the Bengals.  They rode Rhamondre Stevenson and his 120 rushing yards on 25 carrries.

The Seahawks brought in former Baltimore defensive coordinator Mike McDonald as their head coach.  He is one of the best defensive minds in the game, and the Seahawks are loaded on defense this season.  They aren't going to let Stevenson run wild on them like the Bengals did.  They are going to make Brissett try and beat them, and I don't think he can.

The Seahawks are loaded at the skill positions, and Geno Smith is more than just a game manager.  They will put up enough points to get us the cover as their defense comes close to pitching a shutout in this one.  The Seahawks held the Broncos to just 231 total yards and 3.3 yards per play last week.  This has the makings of a Top 5 defense.  Bet the Seahawks Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Giants/Commanders OVER 43.5

Two of the worst defenses in the NFL square off in Week 2 when the New York Giants visit the Washington Commanders.  I expect both offenses to get going this week after sub par performances in Week 1.  We are getting great value on the OVER 43.5 as a result, which is just below two very key numbers for NFL totals in 44 and 45.

The Giants made Sam Darnold look like Joe Montana last week. They scored 28 points in 3 quarters before calling off the dogs in a blowout.  Darnold went 19-of-24 passing for 208 yards and 2 TD against the Giants, who allowed 6.1 yards per play to the Vikings for the game.

The Commanders probably have the worst defense in the NFL.  They made Baker Mayfield look like Patrick Mahomes last week.  Mayfield completed 24-of-30 passes for 289 yards and 4 TD, while the Bucs also rushed for 112 yards in their 37-20 win over the Commanders.

Jayden Daniels and this Washington offense are going to improve rapidly under offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury.  Daniels is too good, and he is loaded with weapons this season.  Expect the breakout game to come for him here in Week 2.

Daniel Jones is undoubtedly one of the worst QB's in the NFL.  But he is better than he showed against the Vikings, who have one of the best defenses in the NFL under Brian Flores.  Jones got good news when it was announced Malik Nabers would be playing this week after an injury scare, and the rookie WR is in line for a big game against this awful Washington secondary.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Jets/Titans OVER 40.5

Aaron Rodgers looked pretty good all things considered in his first action since basically a year ago when he tore his Achilles in Week 1 last year.  He is playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the game, and he has some serious weapons in Wilson, Lazard, Williams and Hall.  This is a very low total for a game involving this kind of offense.

The Titans have one of the more underrated offenses in the NFL.  They have a good offensive line, and second-year QB Will Levis makes a lot of big plays but also a lot of mistakes, which is good for OVERS.  Levis has ample weapons with the additions of WR Calvin Ridley, WR Tahj Boyd and RB Tony Pollard.  Plus, DeAndre Hopkins should be much closer to full strength this week after he and Levis formed a great chemistry last year.

The Jets were gashed by the 49ers defensively with outside zone runs.  That is their weakness on defense, and I think the Titans can exploit it with Pollard and Tajae Spears.  Brian Callahan is one of the best O-Line coaches in the history of the NFL and will have this scheme ready to go after rushing for 140 yards on the Bears last week.

The Titans do have an improved defense this season, but a lot of their success last week had more to do with bad Bears than good Titans.  Rookie Caleb Williams was making his first start, and WR's Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen both got banged up.  I don't think the Titans will have close to as much success defensively against Rodgers and company this week.

This total is just below a very key number of 41 and we are getting great value on the OVER after both offenses were a bit sluggish against elite defenses last week.  Both offenses take a step down in class this week and should have more success.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Saints +7

Nobody wants to give the New Orleans Saints credit for their 47-10 win over the Carolina Panthers last week.  Nobody was talking about the Saints as serious contenders to win the NFC South, which is the worst division in football.  This team is flying under the radar to start the season.

Everyone wants to crown the Dallas Cowboys after going on the road and beating the Cleveland Browns 33-17 last week.  But that game was closer than the final score as the Cowboys only managed 265 total yards and 4.4 yards per play on offense.  Deshaun Watson was terrible and gifted the Cowboys the win, plus the Browns were dealing with a ton of injuries on the offensive line.

The Saints outgained the Panthers 379 to 193 and 6.1 yards per play to 3.5 yards per play.  Many thought the Panthers would be improved this season under new head coach Dave Canales, and most were on the Panthers last week because of it.  So to just dismiss this performance as the Panthers being bad rather than the Saints being good I think isn't doing the Saints justice.

New Orleans is one of the healthiest teams in the NFL to start the season.  They have arguably a Top 5 defense, and Derek Carr was flawless in his first start under new coordinator Klint Kubiak.  Carr completed 19-of-23 passes for 200 yards and 3 TD, and the Saints rushed for 180 yards as a team.

The Cowboys were already lacking offensive weapons outside CeeDee Lamb, and now they are going to be without TE Jake Ferguson, who suffered a knee injury against the Browns last week.  Ferguson is a security blanket for Dak Prescott and his loss is bigger than most recognize.  The Saints will be able to key in on Lamb even more now to try and take him away.

This line should be much closer to 3 than 7, so there's serious value on New Orleans this week.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 49ers/Vikings UNDER 45.5

Sam Darnold came over to the Minnesota Vikings from the San Francisco Giants.  He has the insight on how to stop Kyle Shanahan's offense to give to Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores.  Conversely, the 49ers have the insight on Darnold's strengths and weaknesses and will come up with the proper game plan to stop him.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and that familiarity for both teams will favor the UNDER.  Plus, the 49ers and Vikings squared off last season in October with the Vikings prevailing 22-17 for just 39 combined points with Kirk Cousins at quarterback.  It will be another defensive struggle in the rematch.

The Giants made Darnold look like Joe Montana last week.  They have an awful defense.  This is a big step up in class for this Minnesota offense taking on a San Francisco defense that is one of the best in the NFL.  The 49ers held the Jets to 19 points only after the Jets scored a meaningless TD in garbage time with 25 seconds left last week.  They also held the Jets to 266 total yards, with a large chunk of that coming in garbage time.

Making matters worse for Darnold is the fact that he will be without WR Jordan Addison, who came on strong last year in the absence of Justin Jefferson.  Addison re-injured his ankle that was giving him problems in training came against the Giants and has been ruled out.  The Vikings were already without stud TE TJ Hockenson.  Now the 49ers can focus in on stopping Jefferson because the Vikings just don't have many other weapons that can beat them.

Speaking of injuries, the 49ers will be without Christian McCaffrey again this week.  Jordan Mason played well in his place against the Jets, but no question McCaffrey adds a different dimension to this offense with his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.  Flores is one of the best defensive coordinators in the game, and I suspect he will come up with the right game plan to hold the 49ers in check.  He did last year limiting them to 17 points.  

The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 40 or fewer combined points in five of those six.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Bills/Dolphins AFC East No-Brainer on Buffalo +2.5

Note: I am also playing a 6-Point Teaser with the Bills +8.5/Broncos +9

The Buffalo Bills are coming off a misleading 34-28 win over the Arizona Cardinals.  Neither team deserved to score that many points, especially Arizona, which was held to just 270 total yards and 4.5 yards per play.  But the Cardinals scored on a 96-yard kickoff return TD in the 4th quarter and were set up with short fields on a few other kickoffs.

The Bills did pretty much whatever they wanted to offensively averaging 6.1 yards per play.  And they will do pretty much whatever they want to offensively against a Miami defense that lost five of their top six sackers from last season.  And this is a Miami defense that just cannot figure out Josh Allen and the Bills.

Indeed, the Bills are 11-1 SU in their last 12 meetings with the Dolphins with their lone loss coming by 2 points.  So they would be 12-0 ATS with a line of +2.5, which is what we are getting the Bills at in this game.  There's nothing fluky about this run as Buffalo has outgained Miami in 10 consecutive meetings.  Wrong team favored here.

Miami was fortunate to win 20-17 at home over the Jacksonville Jaguars last week.  The Dolphins trailed 17-7 and Jacksonville was going in for a TD that would have put the game out of reach at 24-7 in the 3rd quarter.  But Travis Etienne fumbled going into the end zone, and the Dolphins scored on a Tyreek Hill bomb on the very next play.  The game changed with that one play in what was otherwise a dominant effort by the Jaguars.

Miami has a ton of injuries and one of the worst offensive lines in the league.  The Bills are better up front on both sides of the ball and will dominate the line is scrimmage, which has been the key to their dominance over the last 12 meetings.  RB Mostert is out and RB Achane will be a game-time decision, so they are thin in the backfield.  There are also concerning injuries on their defensive line and in their secondary.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Bills Thursday.

15* Jets/49ers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on New York +4.5

The New York Jets have managed to fly under the radar this offseason despite being in the biggest media market in pro sports.  That's a good thing because they haven't caused many headlines, and they are ready to go for the 2024 season.

The same cannot be said for the San Francisco 49ers.  They had two big contract holdouts in LT Trent Williams and WR Brandon Aiyuk.  The 49ers eventually signed both, but not until the week before this game.  The chemistry will be off for the 49ers early in the season as a result.

The Super Bowl hangover is a real thing.  It's usually a good move to fade the Super Bowl loser every season, especially early in the year, and especially in Week 1.  Indeed, the loser of the Super Bowl from the previous season has gone 4-20 ATS in Week 1 over the last 24 years.  It makes sense because these teams aren't over their Super Bowl loss, and it's tough for them to get focused for another run after coming so close.

The Jets should be one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season.  They lost Aaron Rodgers to a season-ending injury in his first drive of the season last year.  Just having him healthy will make a huge difference alone.  It was a minor miracle the Jets won 7 games last year while playing three QB's that may never start another game in the NFL.

That was a testament to their defense, which will once again be one of the best in the NFL and is a better unit than what the 49ers have to offer.  They finished 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed last season.  Headlining this defense is DT Quinnen Williams, LB's C.J. Mosley and Quincy Williams, and CB Sauce Gardner.  All four rank near the top of the NFL at their respective positions.

The Jets gave Rodgers plenty of help on offense.  They signed veteran WR Mike Williams and he will be opposite stud youngster Garrett Wilson.  Third-round pick Malachi Corley is drawing comparisons to Deebo Samuel.  RB Breece Hall is one of the best in the league and showed he is fully recovered from his torn ACL in 2022 with a big finish last season.  

The Jets really bolstered what was one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL last year.  They used the No. 11 pick on to challenge RT Morgan Moses.  They signed G John Simpson from Baltimore, and C Joe Tippmann was a second-round pick last year that will only improve.  They signed LT Tyron Smith from Dallas, and RG Alijah Vera-Tucker is solid when healthy, which is the case currently.

New York head coach Robert Saleh knows what to expect from Kyle Shanahan after serving under him as their defensive coordinator before taking his current job.  I like how healthy the Jets are and how under the radar they are flying heading into the season.  I will gladly fade the 49ers and their crazy offseason, plus the Super Bowl hangover factor.  

Aaron Rodgers is a perfect 10-0 SU in his last 10 Monday Night Football starts.  Underdogs are 29-12-1 ATS in the last 42 MNF games.  Bet the Jets Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Commanders +3.5

The Washington Commanders finally have new ownership.  They have a new head coach in Dan Quinn and a new offensive coordinator in Kliff Kingsbury.  They took Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 overall pick, and I wouldn't be surprised if he wins Offensive Rookie of the Year.  The Commanders have new life and there is a buzz around the building about the prospects of this team.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers back-doored the NFC South title last year.  But the NFC South is the worst division in football.  And they lost arguably the most important piece to that run in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, who took the head coaching job of the Carolina Panthers.  Canales was with Geno Smith for his career year in Seattle, and he was with Baker Mayfield for his career year in Tampa Bay last season.  I think this offense takes a big hit without Canales running it.

The Commanders had the worst turnover differential (-14) in the NFL last season while the Buccaneers (+6) had one of the best.  The Bucs were one of the luckiest teams in the NFL last year, and they benefited from playing in the worst division in football.  The Commanders were one of the most unlucky teams.  As a result, this line is inflated and we are getting great value on the Commanders +3.5 in Week 1 when I believe they are actually the better team.

I love the additions the Commanders made along the offensive line and at running back.  They also made some great additions at linebacker, and the front seven is very strong to make up for their one weakness, which is the secondary.  The Commanders will have the element of surprise because the Bucs won't know what to expect from Daniels in Kingsbury's offense.  I think they both shine in Week 1.  Bet the Commanders Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Titans/Bears OVER 44.5

The Chicago Bears and Tennessee Titans are two offenses I am very high on this year.  This is a very low total for a game involving these two offenses.  These were two poor offenses last year, and that perception is creating value for us to take the OVER 44.5.

The Bears got the No. 1 overall pick in Caleb Williams and he's already probably the best QB they have had in 20-plus years.  They used the 8th pick on WR Rome Odunze, signed one of the most productive WR's in the game in Keenan Allen, and signed WR DJ Moore to a new contract after a big season last year.  TE Cole Kmet is one of the most underrated in the game.  RB D'Andre Swift comes over from the Eagles to give them a nice 1-2 punch in the backfield with Khalil Herbert.

The Titans also made massive improvements to the offense this offseason.  They brought in WR's Calvin Ridley from the Jaguars and Tyler Boyd from the Bengals after signing WR DeAndre Hopkins last year.  RB's Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears form a solid 1-2 punch as both are weapons catching the ball out of the backfield.  Now QB Will Levis has a chance to shine under first-year head coach Brian Callahan, who was the offensive coordinator of the Bengals.  He brought in his dad, one of the best O-Line coaches ever, to work with an improved offensive line.  They used the 7th overall pick on LT JC Latham, while also signing C Lloyd Cushenberry, and this should now be one of the most improved O-Lines in the league.

The Bears have some significant injuries on defense.  They were fortunate late in the season with some turnover luck that made their numbers look better than they really were.  The Titans can expose them in Week 1.  While the Titans did make some improvements on defense, they can only go up from here after having one of the worst stop units in the league last year.  They will be improved to probably league average, but the Bears should be able to exploit them as well, especially at linebacker.

It's rare you get a forecast this nice at Soldier Field in Chicago.  Temps will be in the 60's with single-digit winds.  Both Williams and Levis are in line for big days in a game that should easily top 44.5 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Giants +2

Note: I also played a 6-point teaser on the Giants +8/Cowboys +8.5

The New York Giants surprised and made the playoffs in Brian Daboll's first season on the job in 2022.  They also got a full healthy season out of QB Daniel Jones.  That wasn't the case last year as the Giants went through three different QB's and were even starting Tommy DeVito down the stretch.  They finished 6-11 in a forgetful season.

Now DaBoll is taking over play-calling duties and putting his money where his mouth is.  The Giants stuck with Jones at QB so they could make improvements elsewhere and actually get him some help for once.  They did that instantly in the draft by taking WR Malik Nabers from LSU with the 6th pick.  He is the guy they wanted all along, even over Marvin Harrison Jr., which is saying something.

They lost RB Saquon Barkley and replaced him with RB Devin Singletary, but running backs aren't worth much and I like the replacement.  They spent big money to get one of the best pass-rushers in the NFL in DE Brian Burns.  They shored up the offensive line by signing OT Jermaine Eluemunor, G Jon Runyan and G Aaron Stinnie.  They got the secondary some help with S Tyler Nubin and CB Andru Phillips with their second and third picks in the NFL Draft, respectively.

It's the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Giants as home underdogs against a Minnesota Vikings team that has no business being a road favorite.  Injuries have really decimated the Vikings this offseason.  They just can't catch a break.  

They moved up to draft JJ McCarthy, and now he is out with a season-ending injury suffered in the preseason.  Now their fate is in the hands of QB Sam Darnold, who is no more than a decent backup in this league.  I would take Daniel Jones over Darnold any day.

4th-round pick Khyree Jackson died in a traffic accident two months after getting drafted.  They lost one of the best pass-rushers in the NFL in Danielle Hunter, who had 16.5 sacks last year and was a big reason defensive coordinator Brian Flores' aggressive system worked.  TE TJ Hockenson is out with an injury, and WR Jordan Addison has an ankle injury but is expected to play.  

Daboll is a perfect 7-0 SU in his last seven games as a head coach or offensive coordinator against a Brian Flores-coached defense.  He has him figured out.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Texans -2.5

The Houston Texans chased down the Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South last year in rookie QB CJ Stroud's first season.  He was by far the best QB of the rookie class and is already one of the best QB's in the NFL.  He is a big reason I believe the Texans are a legitimate Super Bowl contender this season.

The Texans won a playoff game by blowing out the Browns, but then lost at Baltimore in the Divisional Round.  They showed they could play with the big boys, and the pieces they added in the offseason and better health could have them really making some noise this season.

The Texans added two huge pieces on offense in RB Joe Mixon and WR Stefon Diggs.  Diggs is just one of three talented receivers that Stroud will be throwing to.  Nico Collins took a big leap last year and was their top receiver, and Tank Dell was dynamite before being lost for the season due to injury in Week 13.  TE Dalton Schultz is also one of the most underrated in his position in the league.

While the Houston offense gets all the headlines, this is going to be one of the best defenses in the NFL as well.  Not only did Stroud win Offensive Rookie of the Year, but the Texans moved up to No. 3 to draft Will Anderson, who won Defensive Rookie of the Year.  They do lose Jonathan Greenard and his 12.5 sacks last year, but replace him with Danielle Hunter, who had had 16.5 sacks with the Vikings last year and is one of the best pass rushers in the NFL.  Anderson and Hunter form arguably the best pass-rushing tandem in the league.

They replaced Sheldon Rankins and Maliek Collins with Foley Fatukasi and Denico Autry.  Fatukasi is one of the best runs stuffers in the league, whlie Autry is coming off a 12.5-sack season. CB Derek Stingley Jr. is one of the best in the league, and they spend 2nd and 3rd round picks on Kamaris Lassiter and Calen Bullock to bolster the defensive backfield.  Jimmie Warn and Jalen Pitre are two quality safeties.  Azeez Al-Shaair comes over from Tennessee and will be their top linebacker.

The Indianapolis Colts are relying on 2nd-year pro Anthony Richardson at quarterback.  While he has the physical tools, he struggles with accuracy and is almost more of a threat in the running game.  His reckless style led to him getting hurt in every game he played last year.  While the offense should be good in the running game with Jonathan Taylor, I don't love the weapons on the outside.

The main problem with the Colts is defense.  They have a solid defensive line, but linebacker and secondary is a weakness.  The Colts haven't recovered from Shaq Leonard's decline and eventual release.  E.J. Speed and Zaire Franklin are liabilities in coverage.  We are getting the Texans at a discount in the opener as short 2.5-point road favorites.  

The Colts are 1-14-1 ATS in their last 16 Week 1 games.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Dolphins OVER 48.5

This is going to be a shootout between what will turn out to be two of the best offenses in the NFL in the Jaguars and Dolphins.  Temps will be in the 80's with less than 10 MPH winds and only a 25% chance of rain in Miami, so conditions were perfect for that shootout as well.

The Dolphins probably have the best offense in the NFL.  They put have averaged 35.5 points per game in the first three games of the season under current head coach Mike McDaniel.  They have all their weapons back from last year, plus open the season with a healthy offensive line, which wasn't the case last year.

The problem for the Dolphins is defense, where they will be without five of their top six leaders in sacks from last season due to either moving on to a different team or due to injury.  CB Jalen Ramsey is questionable with a hamstring injury as well.  This banged up, short-handed defense will get tired and shredded in the Miami heat.

The Jaguars are loaded on offense this season.  They put up big numbers before Trevor Lawrence got hurt last year.  They added C Mitch Morse and rookie WR Brian Thomas with the only key loss being WR Calvin Ridley.  They will have better health alone the offensive line and start the season intact up front.

The Jaguars did not play well defensively last year ranking 26th in defensive EPA for the season, including bottom 10 in both stopping the run and defending the pass.  They hired Ryan Nielsen as their new defensive coordinator.  He runs a more aggressive style with lots of man-to-man coverage.  But that's exactly the type of defense that the Dolphins shred as they are much worse against 2-high zone defenses.  Look for Jacksonville's defense to be out of sorts in Week 1 trying to execute the new scheme against the league's top offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Packers/Eagles NFC No-Brainer on Philadelphia -2.5

The Philadelphia Eagles already had one of the best offenses in the NFL.  Now they add in RB Saquon Barkley, who is arguably the best RB in the NFL when healthy.  They also traded for Josh Doctson of the Commanders to give them a true No. 3 receiver to compliment arguably the best duo in the entire NFL in A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith.

The defense was the weakness of the Eagles last year.  They addressed that in the offseason starting with the hiring of Vic Fangio at defensive coordinator.  They signed LB Devin White and S Chancey Gardner-Johnson.  They added two of the top CB's in the draft in the first two rounds in Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean.

There is a lot of hype surrounding the Green Bay Packers with the way they finished last season.  But I just don't think they are on Philadelphia's level to start this season.  I like Jordan Love and the talented young receivers he has to work with, but they lose dynamic playmaker Aaron Jones and replace him with Josh Jacobs, who has carried a heavy workload with the Raiders and can't do as much as Jones in the receiving game.  His backup in AJ Dillon has been lost for the season, so there's not much depth behind him.

The Packers lost former first-round pick Darnell Savage at safety and LB De'Vondre Campbell, who was one of the best LB's in the NFL.  They nabbed Jeff Hafley from Boston College as their defensive coordinator and have struggled finding a coordinator for years.  They just cut K Anders Carlson shortly before the season, and they could struggle in the kicking game until the find a serviceable replacement.

I have the Eagles at least a FG better than the Packers on a neutral this year, and this game will be played in Brazil on a neutral.  Getting -2.5 is a nice value on them to start the season.  Bet the Eagles Friday.

15* Ravens/Chiefs NFL Season Opener on UNDER 47.5

The Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens meet in a rematch from the AFC Championship Game last year.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and these teams have had all offseason to prepare for one another to boot.  Points will be hard to come by as a result.

UNDERS usually dominate in Week 1 of the NFL season with defenses ahead of the offenses.  I expect that to be the case here.  Kansas City beat Baltimore 17-10 in the AFC Championship Game for just 27 combined points.  It should be more of the same in the rematch.

A lot has been made of the improvements the Chiefs have made offensively in the offseason adding Hollywood Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy.  However, Brown has been ruled out with an injury, and I don't expect much from Worthy in his first game in the league.  This Kansas City offense won't be hitting on all cylinders until Brown returns.

Lamar Jackson will be rusty after not seeing any action in the preseason.  The Chiefs have him figured out as well as their Cover 0 scheme is the one he struggles against most.  After making a big mistake by throwing the ball too much against KC in the AFC Championship Game, the Ravens will be looking to pound the rock which is what they are best at.

Both teams have their best chance at success on the ground.  Both defenses are way more vulnerable against the run than they are against the pass.  With so much of this game being played on the ground, there will be fewer clock stoppages.  These were two of the top scoring defenses in the NFL last year and both will be elite again this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers ML -118

BONUS BETS: I will be adding my favorite Super Bowl Props leading up to the Super Bowl. Check back below my analysis for these bonus bets.  I should have them all up by Saturday, February 10th.

If this game was played last week the 49ers would be -3.  But since the Chiefs pulled off the upset over the Ravens and the 49ers struggled to get by the Lions, this line has been adjusted down close to PK.  I will gladly take advantage and 'buy low' on the 49ers and 'sell high' on the Chiefs.

The 49ers were the highest power rated team in the NFL all season.  That means that they were the best team in the NFL all season.  I still believe that to be the case now even though they needed comebacks to beat both the Packers and the Lions.  But those two games are easily explainable.

The 49ers were overvalued going into both of those games laying -10.5 to the Packers and -7.5 to the Lions.  The Packers were as healthy as they had been all season which allowed them to upset the Cowboys on the road prior to giving the 49ers a run for their money.  But when Brock Purdy needed a drive the most down 4 in the 4th quarter, he came through with his best drive of the game and the game-winning score.

That confidence carried over to the game against the Lions.  Trailing 24-7 at halftime, the 49ers scored 27 unanswered points in the 2H behind Purdy and actually took a 10-point lead before the Lions got a garbage TD to win by 3.  The 49ers got the Lions' best shot and it was also a fully healthy Detroit team playing their best football of the season.  The Chiefs lost to the Lions AND the Packers earlier this season, and neither were playing as well as they were against the 49ers at the time the Chiefs lost to them.

The Chiefs are now 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They beat the Dolphins 26-7 in the playoff opener.  They took advantage of a depleted Miami defense and got to face the warm weather Dolphins at temperatures around zero degrees.  They upset the Bills 27-24 as 2.5-point road dogs in the Divisional Round.  They took advantage of a Buffalo defense that was decimated by injuries again.

Last week, the Chiefs pulled the 17-10 upset as 4.5-point road dogs at Baltimore.  The Ravens are fully to blame for this one.  They had a huge advantage on the ground and decided to let Lamar Jackson try to beat them with his arm.  They got away from their strength.  They only gave Gus Edwards three carries for 20 yards to the entire game.  It was mind-blowing.

The Ravens let the Chiefs off the hook, and so did the Bills.  After a run-heavy approach through three quarters, the Bills went away from the run in the 4th.  They rushed for 182 yards on the Chiefs in that game but inexplicably went away from it with the game on the line.  It also helped the Chiefs that Stefon Diggs dropped a potential TD bomb from Allen that would have changed the game.

The 49ers will not let the Chiefs off the hook.  Kyle Shanahan loves to run the football, and he will come with the proper game plan to beat Kansas City.  He will give it to his best offensive weapon in Christian McCaffrey.  He had 1,459 rushing yards and 14 TD during the regular season while also catching 67 balls for 564 yards and seven scores.  He has been a workhorse in these playoffs, rushing 37 times for 188 yards and 4 TD while also catching 11 balls for 72 yards.  Shanahan will put the game in his hands and open up play-action for Brock Purdy, who has proven he is more than just a game manager coming up clutch with comeback wins in back-to-back games.

The Chiefs allow 4.5 yards per carry on the season.  They are an elite pass defense, but getting physical with them in the running game is what they are susceptible too.  The 49ers have the perfect answer with McCaffery and company.  We've seen the 49ers struggle against the outside zone against the run all season, including the last two weeks.  But the Packers with Aaron Jones and the Lions with their two-headed monster at RB in Montgomery and Gibbs thrive running the outside zone where they can use their speed to get to the edge.

The great news for the 49ers is after facing two great outside zone teams with two of the best offensive lines in the league, they now get to face the Chiefs, who run mostly inside zone.  The 49ers are elite at stopping runs into the middle of their line because of their elite LB's.  They struggle setting an edge at Nick Bosa and Chase Young sometimes get too pass rush-happy.  They won't have to worry about that against the Chiefs, who have a great pass blocking O-Line but not a good run blocking O-Line.

The Chiefs are going to put the ball in Mahomes' hands and try to attack the 49ers with the pass.  Well, the 49ers are elite against the pass especially to passes over the middle of the field, ranking 1st in the NFL in defending such passes.  That means they will be great at taking away Travis Kelce, which is Mahomes' biggest weapon.  The Chiefs have been getting by with their lack of playmakers on offense, but they will run out of luck this week.  Their defense has carried them, but I think the 49ers will do as much damage as any team has on that defense because they are loaded on offense and scoring 28.9 points per game this season.  The 49ers will defense the pass well enough.  They give up just 216 passing yards per game and 5.9 per attempt.

While the 49ers are about as healthy as they have been all season, the Chiefs have some key injuries on defense.  They just lost DE Charles Omenihu to a torn ACL against the Ravens when he got a sack-fumble of Lamar Jackson.  Omenihu has 8 sacks in just 12 games this season and is their best pass rusher opposite Chris Jones.  LB Willie Gay missed the Baltimore games and is questionable with a neck injury.  All-Pro G Joe Thuney also missed the Baltimore game and is questionable.  DT Derrick Nnadi has been placed on injured reserve.

Finally, it just feels like San Francisco's year after those two comeback wins to get here.  They basically never came back to win games in the 2H under Kyle Shanahan up until these playoffs.  Now they got the monkey off their back and are brimming with confidence.  Purdy is good enough to win a Super Bowl largely because of all the talent he has around him.  He also showed he can make plays with his legs if need be.  The 49ers desperately want revenge on the Chiefs after blowing a 10-point 4Q lead in their last trip to the Super Bowl.  But they don't have to deal with Tyreke Hill any more.  They are the more complete team and that will show on the field Sunday.  Bet the 49ers on the Money Line.

Super Bowl Prop Bets: Listed in order of strongest to weakest

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Longest Reception OVER 13.5 Yards (-130)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving Yards OVER 19.5 (-115)

Kyle Juszczyk OVER 0.5 Receptions (-160)

McCaffrey OVER 90.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Ji'Ayir Brown OVER 5.5 Tackles + Assists (-130)

Which Team Will Have the Longest Gross Punt? 49ers (-115)

Harrison Butker OVER 1.5 Made Field Goals (-125)

Elijah Mitchell OVER 1.5 Rush Attempts (-120)

Anytime TD Scorer: Noah Gray (+950)

Super Bowl MVP: Deebo Samuel (+2500)

20* Lions/49ers NFC No-Brainer on OVER 51

BONUS PICK: I like a Ravens/49ers ML Parlay at basically even money.

The 49ers played in the slop and rain last week against the Packers and it still should have gone over the 50.5-point total.  They just needed the Packers to make a FG that would have tied the game at 24-24 and at the very least forced OT.  But now the conditions are going to be perfect for a shootout in Santa Clara on Sunday with the forecast calling for temps in the 70's, 0% chance of precipitation and only 3 MPH winds.

The 49ers face a dead nuts OVER team in the Detroit Lions who have an elite offense that can match them, but one of the worst defenses in the entire NFL.  We saw the Lions allow 408 yards and and 6.8 yards per play against the Bucs last week and 425 yards and 7.7 yards per play to the Rams the week prior.  The Lions also faced the Vikings twice in the final three weeks and gave up 448 yards and 6.4 per play in the second meeting and 390 yards and 7.6 per play in the first, and that was to backup QB Nick Mullens.

Brock Purdy has a lot of critics for his performance against the Packers.  But the fact of the matter is he has small hands and struggles in rain and that has been shown dating back to college.  Purdy is in line for one of his best games of the season against this soft Detroit secondary that has allowed at least 319 passing yards in five consecutive games now.  

The worry was that Deebo Samuel would be out, but he returned to practice on Thursday and now Purdy should have his full compliment of weapons after Samuel was knocked out of the Green Bay game on the opening series.  That changed their entire game plan as Samuel was a big part of it, which also hampered their offense.  But Purdy came up big with his best drive of the game when they needed it most late in the 4th quarter to take the lead on the Packers, and that should have him brimming with confidence coming into this one and licking his chops at this opportunity to face Detroit's defense.

With the 49ers likely playing from ahead, the Lions are going to have to play with more of a sense of urgency on offense.  They have a great balanced attack that has produced 27.2 points per game, 232 rushing yards per game and 260 passing yards per game this season.  The concern is usually with Jared Goff going outdoors because he has much better numbers indoors.  But that concern is greatly mitigated with how perfect the weather conditions are going to be in Santa Clara.

This San Francisco defense has taken a big step back from last season and isn't as ferocious as it has been in years' past.  The 49ers gave up 29 points to the Cardinals and 33 points to the Ravens down the stretch.  Their secondary isn't great and they are lacking a pass rush.  They have also allowed over 100 rushing yards in four of their last five games.  For the first time in the Shanahan era, the 49ers are actually led by their offense and not their defense.

San Francisco is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.  This one has shootout written all over it in a battle of two of the best offenses in the NFL up against two overrated defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Chiefs/Ravens AFC No-Brainer on OVER 44

BONUS PICK: I like a Ravens/49ers ML Parlay at basically even money.

The Baltimore Ravens are scoring 32.1 points per game at home this season.  That includes the 10 points they scored against the Steelers in Week 18 when they rested Lamar Jackson, or that number would be even higher.

The Ravens have the best offense they have ever had in the Jim Harbaugh era.  Todd Monken is a tremendous offensive coordinator and has gotten the most out of Lamar Jackson and all these playmakers.  The Ravens even get Mark Andrews back this week after not having him for the second half of the season to add another weapon.

The Chiefs have a great defense, but they got really banged up against the Bills last week.  LB Willie Gay, who is the spy for Jackson, left that game with a neck injury and is questionable.  Also questionable are CB L'Jarius Sneed and FS Mike Edwards, who also left the game last week.  This Kansas City defense isn't what it was in the regular season.

KC benefited from playing a weak schedule of opposing offenses this season.  When they stepped up in class they gave up 27 points to the Packers and 24 to the Bills.  They are weak against the run, and the Ravens are the best rushing team in the NFL.  I expect the Ravens to get what they want on the ground and to control this game from ahead.

With the Ravens being ahead, the Chiefs are going to be forced to try and play catch up, which is going to be good for the OVER.  The Chiefs have been playing with more tempo to try and get in a rhythm on offense, and it is working in these playoffs.  They had 26 points and 409 total yards on the Dolphins and 27 points and 361 total yards on the Bills.  They averaged 7.7 yards per play against the Bills last week and had eight plays of 20-plus yards.

No question the Ravens have elite defensive numbers this season, but they also benefited from playing backup and rookie QB's this season.  We saw them give up 33 points to the Browns when De'Sean Watson was healthy.  They also gave up 31 points to the Rams and 429 total yards to the 49ers.  I don't think they are as good defensively as their numbers would suggest, and the Chiefs will be able to score on them as well.

Kansas City is 8-1 OVER in its last nine road game with a total of 42.5 to 49 points.  Andy Reid is 13-3 OVER as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of Kansas City.  The Chiefs play with more of a sense of urgency on offense when they are tested.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Chiefs/Bills AFC No-Brainer on Kansas City +3

Note: Buy to +3 (-125) or better

I've been riding the Buffalo Bills with regularity since their bye week.  The Bills returned from their bye and went on the road and beat the Kansas City Chiefs 20-17 in a controversial finish.  I was fortunate to cash that ticket on the Bills, who are 6-0 SU since their bye week.  But now it's time to buck the Bills and back the Chiefs in the NFL Divisional Round.

The Chiefs have the rest advantage and the injury advantage.  The Chiefs beat the Dolphins 26-7 on Saturday in a game that was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They were held to four field goals as they struggled in the red zone or would have won by even more.  Now they have had the last seven days off and will be fresh and ready to go.  That's especially the case since they rested their starters in Week 18.

The Bills did not have the luxury of getting to rest their starters in Week 18.  They needed to beat the Dolphins to win the division and get the No. 2 seed.  They came back from a 14-7 halftime deficit to beat the Dolphins 21-14.  It was their 3rd consecutive dog fight after beating the Chargers 24-22 on the road and the Patriots 27-21 at home.  Then they beat the Steelers 31-17 at home last week, but their defense was on the field for the majority of the 2nd half.

That game against the Steelers was played on Monday as it was moved due to weather.  Now the Bills only have five days' rest and not much time to prepare for the Chiefs.  The Bills lost several defensive starters to injury against the Steelers to boot.  Now the Bills have 6 defensive starters questionable to play in this game.  These 6 have combined for 548 tackles, 10.5 sacks and 35 passes defended and 91 of a possible 102 starts.  The Bills would be lucky if they even have half of them available.  Not to mention, No. 2 WR Gabe Davis is hurt and may not play this week.

The Chiefs had basically a bye in Week 18 to rest their starters.  They came back fresh and ready to go and crushed the Dolphins 26-7.  Their offense worked as well as it has all season with 409 total yards on the Dolphins.  They rushed for 167 yards and Mahomes found some chemistry with his receivers.  Rashee Rice had eight receptions for 130 yards and a TD while Travis Kelce has seven receptions for 71 yards in the win.  I expect Mahomes and company to have a monster game against this banged up Buffalo defense.

Josh Allen has been a walking turnover this season and I think he will give the ball to the Chiefs one or two times that will be the difference in this game.  The Chiefs outgained the Bills 346 to 327 and 5.6 yards per play to 4.5 yards per play in that first meeting in Kansas City.  Those numbers would have been even worse if the TD from Mahomes, to Kelce, to Toney stood had Toney not been called for being offsides in a tick-tack call.  The Chiefs want their revenge, and given all their advantages coming into this one in rest and injuries, I expect them to get that revenge.

Patrick Mahomes is 7-3 SU & 8-1-1 ATS as an underdog in his career.  Mahomes is 7-0 SU in the Wild Card and Divisional Rounds in his career.  The Chiefs are 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog with their lone loss coming with Alex Smith at QB in 2017.  Buffalo is 13-26 ATS in its last 39 games following four or more consecutive wins.  Andy Reid is 42-22 ATS with a line of +3 to -3 as the coach of Kansas City.  Bet the Chiefs Sunday night.

15* Bucs/Lions NFC ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay +7

Note: Buy to +7 (-120) or better

The Tampa Bay Bucs are 6-1 SU in their last seven games overall not only just to make the playoffs, but to also upset the Eagles 32-9 in the Wild Card Round in their most complete performance of the season.  A big reason for their success is a return to health on defense, where the Bucs will have the best unit on the field Sunday when they take on the Detroit Lions.

This Tampa Bay defense shut out the Panthers and then held the Eagles to 9 points and 276 total yards last week.  They also held the Packers to 20 points, the Jaguars to 12 points, the Saints to 23 points in their three games prior and have now allowed an average of just 12.8 points per game in their last five games.  This is one of the best defenses in the entire NFL right now.

Baker Mayfield deserves Comeback Player of the Year with what he is doing right now.  He completed 64.3% of his passes for 4,044 yards with a 28-to-10 TD/INT ratio in the regular season.  He went 22-of-36 for 337 yards with 3 TD and no picks against the Eagles and didn't look injured at all.  His numbers would have been even better if Mike Evans and Cade Otton didn't drop two TD passes that were thrown perfectly.  Mayfield knows this is his opportunity and isn't about to waste it.

The Lions were fortunate to escape with a 24-23 victory over the Rams last week.  The difference was the Lions went 3-for-3 scoring TD's in the red zone while the Rams went 0-for-3 and settled for 3 FG.  The Rams dominated the box score.  They outgained the Lions 425 to 334 and 7.7 yards per play to 6.1 yards per play.  This Detroit defense cannot be trusted to get margin.  It's arguably the worst defense left in these playoffs.

The Lions have been life and death in four consecutive games now.  It stemmed back to their 30-24 win at Minnesota in which they benefited from four Vikings turnovers.  Then they lost 20-19 on the road in Dallas after a failed 2-point conversion in the final seconds.  Instead of resting their starters in a meaningless Week 18 game, the Lions went balls to the ball in a 30-20 home win over the Vikings.  They allowed 448 total yards to the Vikings and their 3rd-string QB.  And last week they needed a late stop to beat the Rams and their offense got a 1D to run out the clock.  I question how much the Lions have left in the tank now.

Tampa Bay is a pass-happy team and that makes this a great matchup for them because the Lions' strength defensively is stopping the run.  The Lions rely a lot on running the football, and the Bucs are great at stopping the run allowing just 92 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.  This is a great matchup for the Bucs on both sides of the football.

Baker Mayfield is 7-1 ATS as an underdog this season and 4-0 ATS in his last four.  The Bucs are 8-1 ATS in all road games this season and have played their best football away from home.  That includes their 34-20 win at Green Bay against a Packers team that was playing great football and is still playing great.  The Bucs dominated that game outgaining the Packers 452 to 321 for the game.  Green Bay went into Detroit on Thanksgiving and won 29-22.

Todd Bowles is 6-0 ATS when revenging a loss where his team scored 14 points or less as the coach of Tampa Bay.  He will make the proper defensive adjustments in the rematch from a 20-6 home loss to the Lions early in the season.  And this Tampa Bay offense has improved by leaps and bounds since that defeat, plus their defense is a lot healthier now.  Bet the Bucs Sunday.

20* Packers/49ers NFC No-Brainer on OVER 50

The San Francisco 49ers are scoring 28.9 points per game this season.  They will be able to name their number on this Green Back Packers defense that is one of the worst in the NFL.  The Packers allowed 34 points to the Bucs, 30 to the Panthers and 32 to the Cowboys down the stretch.  

Green Bay's defense was on the field for 85 snaps against the Cowboys and gave up 510 yards on Sunday.  Now they are gassed and on a short week having to play on Saturday this week.  They lost CB Jaire Alexander and LB Kinglsey Enagbare to injury in that game and both are unlikely to play this week.  Fellow starters in DE Kenny Clark, RB Rashan Gary, FS Darnell Savage and SS Jonathan Owens are also banged up and questionable.

The 49ers are going to score 34-plus points in this one to lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.  But I think the Packers can keep pace with how well Jordan Love is playing.  Love has a 21-to-1 TD/INT ratio in his last nine games and is playing as well as any QB in the NFL.  He has all of his weapons healthy and that has made a big difference.  He went 16-of-21 for 272 yards and three touchdowns against the Cowboys.

The Packers have now scored at least 20 points in eight of their last nine games overall and are averaging 28.0 points per game during this stretch.  They will get 20-plus in this one.  The lone exception was 17 in poor weather against the Bears, but they had 432 total yards on a very good Chicago defense and should have scored more.  They will find success throwing the ball against the 49ers, whose weakness is in their secondary defensively.  The 49ers haven't faced many offenses as good as Green Bay's this season.

Green Bay is 8-2 OVER in road games this season.  The OVER is 7-0 in Packers seven road games against NFC opponents this season.  Green Bay is 8-0 OVER in its last eight games off an upset win as an underdog.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Texans/Ravens AFC ANNIHILATOR on Houston +9

The Houston Texans have been in must-win mode for three consecutive weeks now.  They got CJ Stroud back against the Titans in Week 17 and beat them 26-3 at home.  They went on to beat Indianapolis 23-19 on the road with the division title on the line.  And last week they crushed the Cleveland Browns 45-14 at home.

Stroud is technically a rookie, but he's already a Top 10 QB in this league.  Stroud completed 63.9% of his passes for 4,108 yards with a 23-to-5 TD/INT ratio in the regular season.  He went 16-of-21 for 274 yards with three touchdowns and no picks against Cleveland, who had the best defensive numbers in the NFL.  He also missed a wide open 50-plus yard TD and had another 30-plus yard completion dropped by his TE in that game, or those already gaudy numbers would have been even better.

But while Stroud gets all the headlines on this Houston team, it's the defense that we should really be excited about and the unit that gives them a chance to keep their Super Bowl hopes alive.  The Texans have been banged up on defense all season, but they are currently about as healthy as they have been all year.  They held the Titans to 3 points, the Colts to 19 points and the previously potent Browns to 14 points in their last three games.

The strength of this Houston defense is stopping the run, which makes this a good matchup for them since the Ravens are the best rushing team in the NFL.  The Texans only allow 94 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season.  The weakness of this Baltimore defense is stopping the run as they give up 109 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  That's significant since the forecast is calling for 15-20 MPH winds in Baltimore.  The Texans will be able to run the ball with Devin Singletary to take some pressure off of Stroud, who will make the plays when he needs to just as he has all season.

Not all bye weeks are created equal.  Not only did the Ravens rest most their starters in Week 18, but then they got a bye week too.  They had built up a ton of momentum with six consecutive wins including their upset victory over the 49ers.  Now resting in Week 18 and having their bye week kills all their momentum.  These starters have had the last couple weeks off and rust may be a factor.  They also have all the pressure on them with their previous failures in the playoffs as Lamar Jackson is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in his playoff career. The Texans are the team with the positive momentum and no pressure as they are playing on house money at this point.  

The Ravens got bad injury news leading into this game with top CB Marlon Humphrey and Jackson's favorite target in TE Mark Andrews both not expected to play in this game.  Jackson is 1-8 ATS as a starting QB as a favorite of -7.5 or higher in his career.  Houston is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games when playing with 6 or less days' rest.  I think Baltimore's misleading 25-9 win over Houston in Week 1 is inflating this line.  Houston actually outgained Baltimore in that game and held the Ravens to 265 total yards, and it was Stroud's first career start.  The Texans have improved by leaps and bounds since then and will prove it this weekend.  Bet the Texans Saturday.

20* Rams/Lions NFC No-Brainer on Los Angeles +3.5

The Los Angeles Rams are the most dangerous team in the NFC playoffs that everyone is overlooking.  The Rams got all of their key weapons in Stafford, Kupp, Nacua and Williams healthy for the second half of the season and were dominant once that was the case.  They are actually about the healthiest team in the NFL going into the playoffs, plus they were able to rest starters in Week 18 to be even more fresh and healthy for the wild card round.

The Rams are 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall with their lone loss coming on the road to the Baltimore Ravens 37-31 (OT).  They went toe-to-toe with the team that many feel like is the favorite to win the Super Bowl.  All the Ravens did after needing a punt return TD in OT to beat the Rams at home is go on to beat the Jaguars 23-7, the 49ers 38-19 and the Dolphins 56-19 in their next three games.  That loss to the Ravens was mighty impressive, and keep in mind the Ravens beat the Lions 38-6 at home earlier this season.

The Rams are humming on offense.  They have scored 26 or more points in each of the last six games started by Stafford.  Now he gets to face his former team and will light up a terrible Detroit defense that has allowed 20 or more points in eight of their last nine games.  I would argue the Rams have the better offense and better defense going into the playoffs.

Dan Campbell made the mistake of trying too hard to win in Week 18 even though he needed the Cowboys to lose to the Commanders to improve their seeding.  What a mistake it turned out to be as star TE Sam LaPorta was lost to a knee injury in a meaningless win over the Vikings.  LaPorta has 86 receptions for 889 yards and 10 TD this season.  The Lions also lost WR/PR Kalif Raymond to injury in the win.  He has 35 receptions for 489 yards and is their main punt returner.  The Lions won't be as fresh as the Rams either after trying hard in Week 18 and needing to go to the wire with the Vikings after going to the wire with the Cowboys the previous week.

Plays against home teams (Detroit) - with a very good offense that averages 385 or more yards per game, after allowing an average of 400 or more yards per game in their last three games are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The back door will always be open if we need it against this Detroit defense.  But I don't think we will.  

The Rams are the better team on both sides and catching 3.5 points to boot.  Home field just isn't worth this much for the Lions, either.  And Sean McVay knows Jared Goff's tendencies more than anyone and will come up with the proper game plan to exploit them.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

20* Packers/Cowboys NFC No-Brainer on Green Bay +7.5

Jordan Love has played like one of the best QB's in the game down the stretch to get his team into the playoffs.  The Packers have won three consecutive games to close out the season and have all the momentum.  Love has been the biggest reason why with a ridiculous 18-to-1 TD/INT ratio over his final eight games of the season.

The most remarkable part about that is that Love has had different weapons miss time due to injury down the stretch.  But now the Packers are as healthy as they have been from a skill position perspective basically since the beginning of the season.  There's a chance they get Christian Watson back from a hamstring injury as he and Romeo Doubs are the only questionable weapons.

Love will be able to dice up a Dallas defense that is grossly overrated.  The Cowboys haven't been able to stop some of the better offenses they have faced this season.  They gave up 420 yards to the Lions, 375 to the Dolphins, 31 points to the Bills and 35 points to the Seahawks down the stretch.  They also allowed 42 points to the 49ers earlier this season.

Dallas will get its points too, but the Packers are trending upward defensively right now since they have gotten healthy.  Key players like LB De'Vondre Campbell, LB Quay Walker and CB Jaire Alexander have all missed time this season.  But all three are healthy right now and the Packers are fully healthy on defense and showing what they are capable of.  They held the Vikings to 10 points and the Bears to 9 points in their final two games to compliment Love's brilliance on offense.

The Cowboys have all the pressure on them.  They have heard for years how they just cannot win the big game, and they really haven't.  If they do find a way to win this game, it won't be by more than one score.  The Packers have the goods to take the Cowboys to the wire just like the Lions and Seahawks did in recent games at Dallas with the Lions losing by 1 and the Seahawks by 6.  Detroit accumulated 420 total yards on Dallas and Seattle had 35 points and 406 yards.

Green Bay is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 games after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in four consecutive games.  The Cowboys are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games following a win by 28 points or more.  Matt LaFleur is 20-10 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Green Bay.  Mike McCarthy is 6-15 ATS vs. a team with a winning record as the coach of Dallas.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

20* NFC Wild Card TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Packers/Cowboys OVER 49.5

The Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys are two dead nuts OVER teams.  They both have great quarterbacks and great offenses but suspect defenses.  The books failed to set this total high enough as these teams will easily combine for 50-plus points in this game to cash this OVER 49.5 ticket.

The Cowboys are averaging 37.4 points per game at home this season.  The Packers have scored at least 20 points in seven of their final eight games to close out the season.  The lone game they didn't they scored 17 against the Bears in the finale and deserved better, but they kneeled in scoring position at the end and had 432 total yards against a very good Chicago defense.  Love has an 18-to-1 TD/INT ratio in his last eight games and is playing as well as any QB in the league down the stretch.

But the Packers have a suspect defense that allowed 19 or more points in seven consecutive games before holding both the Vikings and Bears below that number to close the season.  But the Vikings started a 4th-string QB and the Bears aren't very good offensively.  They gave up 30 points to the lowly Panthers and 34 to the Bucs the two games prior.  Dallas will get its points in this one.

The Cowboys gave up 420 yards to the Lions, 375 to the Dolphins, 31 points to the Bills and 35 points to the Seahawks down the stretch.  The Packers can have the same kind of success because they are on the same level as those offenses with the way they have been playing of late.  There's a chance Jordan Love has all of his weapons back this week if Christian Watson returns from a hamstring injury, but he has proven he can move the football and score points no matter who is out there.

It will be perfect conditions inside the dome in Arlington for a shootout.  The OVER is 12-1 in the last 13 meetings in Dallas with nine of those seeing 50 or more combined points.  Each of the last four meetings between the Cowboys and Packers have seen 58 or more combined points.  Green Bay is 6-0 OVER in road games vs. NFC opponents this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Dolphins/Chiefs AFC ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -3.5

The Kansas City Chiefs are one of the healthiest teams coming into the playoffs.  It helped that they rested their starters in Week 18 to essentially get a bye week.  And we all know how good Andy Reid is coming off a bye week.  The Chiefs will respond in a big way, and we will see them put their best foot forward in the Wild Card Round after an up and down season to this point after winning the Super Bow last year.  The Super Bowl hangover was part of it, but they have just been biding their time waiting for the postseason.

The Miami Dolphins are the most injury-ravaged team in the playoffs aside from perhaps the Steelers.  RB Raheem Mostert, RB De'Von Achane, WR Jaylen Waddle, WR Tyreek Hill, LT Terron Armstead and C Liam Eichenberg are all battling injuries on offense, and they were already without starting C Connor Williams.  The defense lost its two best pass rushers in Bradley Chubb and Jaelen Phillips.  Now their two backup LB's in Andrew Van Ginkel and Jerome Baker suffered season-ending injuries against the Bills in Week 18.  Not to mention, all four starters in the secondary are questionable.  What a mess.

These injuries have played a part in their meltdown to close out the regular season losing by a combined 77-33 to Baltimore and Buffalo.  They gave up 491 total yards to the Ravens and 473 total yards to the Bills.  Now this previously stagnant Chiefs offense is in line for one of its best performances of the season against this soft Miami defense.

Speaking of soft, the Dolphins won't enjoy the weather in Kansas City Saturday night.  It will be single-digit temperatures with negative wind chills and 15-20 MPH winds with gusts up to 30 MPH.  I love fading warm weather teams in cold weather games, especially in the playoffs.  Tua Tagovailoa is 0-4 SU in his career in games with freezing temperatures or below.  He has never played in conditions as cold as they will be in Kansas City Saturday night.

The Dolphins are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 400 or more yards per game in their last three games coming in.  Miami is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games when playing against a good team with a winning percentage of 60-75%.  Miami is 0-9 SU & 2-7 ATS since 2017 in cold weather games with temps below 40 degrees.  None of them were as cold as it will be Saturday night.

Miami went to the wire with Buffalo on Sunday Night Football last week while playing all their starters and trying to win the division.  That effort will have taken a lot out of them, and the schedule makers did them no favors making them play on Saturday on a short week.  The injuries, the tough scheduling spot and the cold weather are going to have the Dolphins falling flat on their faces for a 3rd consecutive week.  Bet the Chiefs Sunday.

25* AFC Wild Card TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Browns/Texans OVER 43

The Cleveland Browns are a dead nuts OVER team with Joe Flacco.  They are a dead nuts OVER team on the road as well.  This total of 43 is too short when you factor in Flacco, Cleveland being on the road and the healthy return of CJ Stroud for Houston.

The Browns are 8-0 OVER on the road this season.  A big reason for that is their defense has been very leaky on the highway.  The Browns allow 29.6 points per game on the road this season, and their road games are averaging 54.0 combined points per game.

The Browns have become very pass-happy with Flacco at QB.  They have attempted 44 or more passes in four of his five starts this season.  The only exception was in the 37-20 win over the Jets in which they were just trying to protect the lead late and ran it more.  They have scored 31 or more points in three of Flacco's last four starts with the lone exception being against a very good Chicago defense at home in tough whether conditions when they only scored 20.

The Texans are humming on offense again with Stroud back healthy.  They scored 26 points against the Titans two weeks ago and 23 against the Colts last week to clinch the AFC South title.  I have no doubt the Texans are going to unleash him against the Browns and use the entire playbook to try and pull off the upset.  This game will be played mostly through the air due to both teams being good against the run, knowing that the weakness of both defenses are more against the pass.

Cleveland played Houston on the road earlier this season on December 24th and 2on 36-22 for 58 combined points.  And that was with Case Keenum at QB for the Texans and Davis Mills replacing him.  The Browns had 364 passing yards in that game and did whatever they wanted to through the air.  They will be able to deploy that same game plan, but this time they will get more resistance from Houston's offense with Stroud under center.  Plus, there's a decent chance Stroud gets a pair of weapons back in WR Noah Brown and WR Robert Woods from injury that they didn't have against Indianapolis.  This game has shootout written all over it inside the dome in perfect conditions in Houston.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Eagles/Giants NFC East ANNIHILATOR on New York +5

The New York Giants want revenge from a 33-25 loss in Philadelphia two weeks ago.  The main reason that game was close is because the Giants replaced an ineffective Tommy DeVito with Tyrod Taylor at halftime.  Taylor threw for 133 yards and a score with a pick while also rushing for 21 yards on two carries as the Giants outscored the Eagles 22-13 with him in the lineup.

Taylor nearly led the Giants to an upset victory over the Los Angeles Rams last week.  They failed on a 2-point conversion going for the win in a 26-25 loss, and they also missed a 54-yard FG that would have won it.  Taylor went 27-of-41 passing for 319 yards with one touchdown and one pick, while also rushing for 40 yards on six carries.  He is clearly the best QB on the roster and the team believes in him.

The Philadelphia Eagles just lost 35-31 last week at home to the Arizona Cardinals.  A win would have put them in control of their own fate in the NFC East.  Now they need the Cowboys to lose to the Commanders as 13-point favorites this week to have a chance.  Deep down they know the Cowboys aren't losing, and when they see Dallas up big at halftime don't be surprised if the Eagles pull their starters in this one.  They need to get healthy for next week.

The Eagles are a very, banged up team.  They are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The problem is with their defense, which has allowed 25 points or more in five of their last six games and an average of 31.5 points per game during this stretch.  They just gave up 35 points and 449 yards to the Cardinals at home last week and were outgained by 174 yards by Arizona.  I think it's the kind of loss that can beat a team twice because they blew a 21-6 lead.

The Giants have no quit in them.  They have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and have been an undervalued commodity here down the stretch because of it.  I think Taylor and company can build off of what they did in the 2H against the Eagles two weeks ago and what they were able to do against the Rams last week.  They are pretty healthy right now, while the Eagles could be without WR Davonte Smith among others.

The Giants are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games after covering the spread in two of their last three games.  Philadelphia is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Eagles are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 61% or higher.  The Giants are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 61% or higher.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Seahawks/Cardinals OVER 47.5

The Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks have two of the worst defenses in the NFL right now.  The Cardinals allow 27.1 points per game and 357.5 yards per game including 31.0 points per game and 374.3 yards per game at home.  The Seahawks allow 365.4 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play on the season, and they are coming off a really poor performance against the Steelers.

Indeed, the Seahawks allowed 30 points and 468 total yards to the Steelers last week.  They gave up 202 rushing yards and have now allowed 136 or more rushing yards in six consecutive games.  That's bad news for their defense going up against an Arizona offense that rushed for 234 yards against the 49ers and 221 yards on the Eagles in two of their last three games.

Arizona just lit up Philadelphia's defense for 35 points and 449 total yards last week.  They will do what they want against this soft Seattle defense.  Seattle's offense put up 23 points and 369 yards on the Steelers last week.  They will be able to do whatever they want for the most part against this Arizona defense as well.  Arizona has allowed 406 or more yards in four of their last six games.

Arizona is a perfect 7-0 OVER at home this season.  Six of those seven games have seen 48 or more combined points.  Arizona home games are seeing an average of 55.0 combined points per game.  The conditions are perfect inside their dome which is a big reason for this.  So this total of 47.5 has been set too low for this matchup between two capable offenses and two dreadful defenses indoors.  

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in Arizona with 52, 68 and 71 combined points in those three.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Arizona Cardinals +3

The Arizona Cardinals likely put an end to Philadelphia's chances of winning the NFC East last week.  Now they have their sights set on their division rivals in the Seattle Seahawks.  They have a chance to end their season with an upset win this week.  Eliminated teams facing must-win teams are 100-64-4 ATS in the final two weeks of the season since 1990.

I think the wrong team is favored here.  Arizona beat Philadelphia 35-31 last week and should have won by more.  They gained 449 yards on the Eagles and held them to just 275 yards, outgaining them by 174 yards.  They also outgained the 49ers three weeks ago, and those are two of the best teams in the NFL.

The Seattle Seahawks are a mess.  They are 2-5 SU in their last seven games overall with both wins coming on last-second scores by 3 over the Eagles at home and by 3 over the Titans on the road.  They should not be laying 3 on the road to the Cardinals today.  The Seahawks gave up 30 points and 468 total yards to the Steelers last week.  Their defense is absolutely broken, and now they must try and defend this Arizona high-octane attack.

The Seahawks are without two starters on the offensive line in T Abraham Lucas and G Phil Haynes. T Jason Peters is questionable.  Defensively, they will be without DE Mario Edwards Jr., plus both NT Jarran Reed and LB Jordyn Brooks are questionable.  The Seahawks allowed 202 rushing yards to the Steelers last week and have now allowed 136 or more rushing yards in six consecutive games.  That's bad news going up against James Connor and the Cardinals, who rushed for 221 yards on the Eagles and 234 yards on the 49ers.

Seattle is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games following a non-conference game.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday.

20* Texans/Colts AFC South No-Brainer on OVER 47

The Indianapolis Colts are getting healthy are the right time on offense.  They just got RB Jonathan Taylor and WR Michael Pittman back from injury, and backup RB Zack Moss should return this week as well.  All three starting offensive linemen that were questionable earlier this week all got in practices on Thursday as well and should all play.

The Houston Texans just got QB CJ Stroud back from injury last week in time to beat the Titans 26-3.  Stroud makes all the difference for this offense as they were terrible without him.  Stroud went 30-of 47 passing for 337 yards in the first meeting with the Colts, who have a suspect secondary that he can take advantage of in this one.

The weakness of the Texans is their banged-up secondary as well, and you can't run on them and the Colts know it.  They will come up with a pass-happy game plan for this one which will lead to more scoring and keep the clock stopped more often.  Gardner Minshew replaced an injury Anthony Richardson in their 31-20 win at Houston earlier this season.  He went 19-of-23 passing for 171 yards and a touchdown in relief and has held onto the job ever since.

Which ever team is trailing is fully capable of coming back due to their passing attacks.  And the Colts run one of the fastest tempos in the NFL.  The OVER is 7-1 in Indianapolis home games this season as they are scoring 26.5 points per game and averaging 372.5 yards per game at home, while allowing 25.8 points per game and 358.5 yards per game at home.  The Colts and their opponents are combining to average 52.3 points per game at home this season.

Indianapolis is 6-0 OVER in its last six games vs. poor pass defenses that allow 7 or more yards per attempt in the 2nd half of the season.  It will be perfect conditions inside the dome for a shootout Saturday night, and neither team is going to give up if they are trailing with everything at stake here.  I think we see a shootout between two of the most underrated offenses in the NFL in a back and forth affair.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday night.

20* Packers/Vikings NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 44

The Green Bay Packers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall with 46 or more combined points in all five games.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Packers, especially matched up with another team that is playing to OVERS recently.  Plus, this game will be indoors in perfect conditions Sunday night in Minnesota.

Jordan Love has made the leap in the 2nd half of the season and is playing much better.  He has led the Packers to 19 or more points in eight consecutive games, including 27 or more three times in his last four games.  They put up 33 on a very good Carolina defense on the road last week.

But the Packers cannot stop anyone.  They have allowed 19 or more points in seven consecutive games.  That includes 30 to the Panthers, 34 to the Bucs and 24 to the Giants the last three weeks.  That's really poor when you consider those are three of the worst offenses in the NFL. The Packers won't have top CB Jaire Alexander to cover Justin Jefferson as he was suspended for one game for conduct detrimental to the team.

The Vikings will have the element of surprise this week going with rookie QB Jaren Hall.  It always seems to give the offense a spark in that first game with a new starter that nobody has film on.  While TE TJ Hockensen was lost for the season, WR Jordan Addison returned to practice this week.  Hall should have Addison to go along with one of the best receivers in the game in Justin Jefferson, plus the two-headed monster of Chandler and Mattison in the backfield.

Love has torched the blitz this season and will torch Minnesota's blitz-happy scheme as well.  The Vikings have really regressed defensively in recent weeks.  They allowed 27 points and 378 total yards to the Bengals two weeks ago and 30 points and 389 total yards to the Lions last week.

Green Bay is 22-4 OVER in its last 26 road games after allowing 25 points or more in two consecutive games.  The Packers are 6-0 OVER in their last six games following a win.  Minnesota is 6-0 OVER in its last six December home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday night.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cardinals/Eagles OVER 47.5

Two leaky defenses square off against two mobile quarterbacks who can beat you with their arm and their leges.  This has shootout written all over it as the Arizona Cardinals visit the Philadelphia Eagles Sunday.

The Eagles got their offense back on track last week with 33 points and 465 total yards against the Giants.  Now they face an Arizona defense that is one of the worst in the NFL, allowing 26.9 points per game, 363 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play this season.  The Cardinals are severely banged up on defense to boot.

Arizona has been much better offensively with Kyler Murray at QB and a healthy James Connor at RB.  They put up 24 points and 150 rushing yards on the Steelers three games ago and 29 points and 234 rushing yards on the 49ers two weeks ago.  They will be able to run on this Philadelphia defense, which has allowed 100-plus rushing yards in six consecutive games.

This is also a very tired, banged up Philadelphia defense.  They have allowed 20 or more points in five consecutive games, including 34 points and 510 yards to the Bills, 42 points and 456 yards to the 49ers, 33 points and 394 yards to the Cowboys and 25 points to the lowly Giants last week.  The Cardinals will get their points as well.  I expect Philly to get to 31 and Arizona to get to at least 20 in this one.

The OVER is 11-1 in Eagles last 12 home games in the 2nd half of the season.  Arizona is 14-5 OVER in its last 19 games vs. poor pass defenses that allow 61% completions or higher.  The forecast looks good with temps in the 40's and only 10 MPH winds expected in Philadelphia.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Texans -3.5

It's time to 'buy low' on the Houston Texans this week.  They lost CJ Stroud three weeks ago to a concussion against the Jets.  They haven't been the same team since.  They are coming off a 36-22 home loss to the Browns, and backup QB Case Keenum was terrible in that game.  He wasn't very good in their OT win over the Titans the week prior as well as he threw a Pick 6.

But now the Texans are expected to get back Stroud this week.  They should get back to being the same dominant, explosive offensive team they were before they lost him.  And some time on the sidelines can really do a rookie good to see the game from a different perspective.  I expect him to come back fresh and ready to go.

Now the Titans won't have the luxury of facing the Texans without Stroud, who they still lost to two weeks ago at home.  The Texans were only 3-point road dogs in that game and now 3.5-point home favorites in the rematch.  That adjustment isn't big enough for shifting home fields, plus replacing Keenum with Stroud.  The Texans should be much closer to a touchdown favorite in this one.

Houston has everything to play for as it is tied for 1st place in the AFC South with the Jaguars and Colts.  The Titans have been eliminated from playoff contention.  The Titans are also a very tired team playing five consecutive one score games, including the last four decided by 3 points or fewer.  But that won't be the case in this one.  I think the Titans are out of gas here, and they have one of the worst injury reports in the entire NFL, especially defensively.

The Titans have eight defenders either on IR or out for this one.  They have four more listed as questionable.  This is a very poor Tennessee defense, especially on the road.  The Titans are 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in road games this season, allowing 23.9 points per game, 362.8 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play.  Their offense has also been suspect on the road with 14.3 points per game, 268.4 yards per game and 5.2 per play.

The Texans outgained the Titans 340 to 204 in that first meeting with Keenum.  They held the Titans to 66 rushing yards on 30 attempts.  The key to stopping the Titans is stopping their running game, and few teams are better equipped at stopping the run than the Texans.  They allow just 91 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry this season.  They have held six of their last eight opponents to 81 rushing yards or fewer.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

15* AFC TOTAL OF THE DAY on Titans/Texans OVER 42.5

The Houston Texans get CJ Stroud back from a concussion after missing the last two games.  They should get back to being the same dominant, explosive offensive team they were before they lost him.  And some time on the sidelines can really do a rookie good to see the game from a different perspective.  I expect him to come back fresh and ready to go.

The Titans have eight defenders either on IR or out for this one.  They have four more listed as questionable.  This is a very poor Tennessee defense, especially on the road.  The Titans are 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in road games this season, allowing 23.9 points per game, 362.8 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play.

The Titans are expected to get Will Levis back at QB this week.  He is more of an 'OVER' QB than Ryan Tannehill, who prefers to dink and dunk.  Levis is not afraid to take deep shots, and he will make more mistakes than Tannehill will, which is good for OVERS.  You cannot run on this Houston defense, so the Titans are going to have to go with a pass-happy approach.  I also expect them to be trailing in this one like they were against Miami a few weeks ago and had to throw it a ton in a game that saw 55 combined points.

The Texans also have their fair share of injuries on defense including Will Anderson, Sheldon Rankins and Maliek Collins, who all missed practice on Thursday.  They have seven starters questionable for this one.  The Texans were lit up for 36 points and 418 total yards by the Browns last week.  The Titans will have their opportunities to score on this defense as well, especially through the air.

This total is too low due to these teams combining for just 35 points in their first meeting in Tennessee a few weeks ago.  But now Stroud replaces Keenum and there's value in the OVER 42.5 here.  They also go from playing an outdoor game on grass in the elements in Tennessee to perfect conditions inside the dome here in Houston.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Rams/Giants NFC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 42

The Rams are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 48 or more combined points in all five games.  It would be 5-0 if not for a missed extra point by the Commanders.  They combined for 52 points with the Saints, 48 with the Commanders, 66 with the Ravens, 55 with the Browns and 51 with the Cardinals.  This total of 42 is very low for a game involving the Rams right now.

The Rams have been dynamic on offense with Stafford, Williams, Kupp and Nacua all healthy at the same time.  That has been the case for them during this offensive resurgence.  They are averaging 32.4 points per game and 433.8 yards per game in their last five games overall as the most dynamic offense in the NFL during this stretch.

Now they face a New York Giants defense that just allowed 33 points and 465 total yards to the Eagles last week.  The Giants allow 134 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry this season, so Williams is in line for another big game on the ground.  That will open things up for Stafford in play-action.

I like the fact that the Giants are going with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback this week.  He is probably their best option.  Taylor led the Giants to 22 second-half points against the Eagles last week after they were held to just 3 points in the first half with Tommy DeVito.  Taylor went 7-of-16 passing for 133 yards with one touchdown and one interception, while also rushing for 21 yards on his two attempts.  The Giants have all of their top playmakers healthy right now including RB Barkley and TE Waller.

The OVER is 4-2 in Giants last six games overall with 46 or more combined points in four of those six games.  The only two exceptions were against the Patriots in bad weather and up against a bad New England offense.  They also went under the total against the Saints, who also have one of the league's least-explosive offenses.  

The forecast looks good for a shootout in this one with temps in the 40's, sunny skies and single-digit winds at MetLife Stadium in New York.  The Rams allow 24.1 points per game on the road this season.  I'm expecting the Rams to get 27-plus in this one and the Giants to get to at least 20.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Rams -4.5

The Los Angeles Rams are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now since getting Stafford, Williams, Kupp and Nacua all healthy.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now, which is a big reason for their resurgence.  And now they get extra time to rest and prepare for this game against the Giants after beating the Saints last Thursday.

The Rams are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only loss coming on the road to the Ravens in overtime.  The Rams are averaging 32.4 points per game and 433.8 yards per game in their last five games overall and have been one of the most dynamic offenses in the NFL during this stretch.

Now they face a New York Giants defense that just allowed 33 points and 465 total yards to the Eagles last week.  The Giants allow 134 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry this season, so Williams is in line for another big game on the ground.  That will open things up for Stafford in play-action.  The Giants could be without two starting defensive linemen in A'Shawn Robinson and Dexter Lawrence this week to make matters worse for them.  Their injury list is as long as any in the NFL right now.

Tyrod Taylor is an upgrade over Tommy DeVito for the Giants at quarterback.  However, it's not a big enough upgrade to warrant this line getting bet down from 6.5 to 4.5 when it was announced Taylor would start.  The Rams have extra time to prepare for Taylor's skill set, so he won't be catching anyone off guard like he did against the Eagles in the 2H last week.  I just don't think the Giants have the firepower to keep up with the Rams in this one, and I have the Rams winning by a TD or more as a result.  The Giants average 14.3 points per game and 263.7 yards per game on the season, including 10.2 points per game and 259.3 yards per game at home.

The Rams know that if they win this game they likely lock up a playoff spot and then can rest their starters next week against the 49ers.  That's why they won't be looking ahead to that game against San Francisco, especially since they have extra time to prepare after having last Thursday off.  Sean McVay's teams get better as the season progresses, which is evident in the fact that the Rams are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 December games.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 49ers/Commanders OVER 48

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off Sunday when the San Francisco 49ers visit the Washington Commanders.  The 49ers have one of the most potent offenses in the NFL but currently a leaky defense.  The Commanders have the single worst defense in the NFL currently but a capable offense.

The 49ers have scored 27 or more points in six of their last seven games overall.  The lone exception was the 19 against the Ravens, but they still managed 429 total yards despite scoring just 19 points due to committing five turnovers that took a bunch of points off the board.  The 49ers have been sub par defensively of late, allowing 29 points and 436 total yards to the Cardinals two weeks ago and 33 points and 343 yards to the Ravens last week.

The Commanders have allowed at least 28 points in six consecutive games now.  They just gave up 30 points to the lowly Jets lsat week.  They also allowed 31 to the Giants during this stretch, so everyone is scoring on them.  But the Commanders are going to Jacoby Brissett at QB, and he has led them on multiple TD drives in the 2H of two consecutive games replacing Sam Howell.  The Commanders keep coming with him under center and will keep coming even if they fall way behind the 49ers.

The 49ers will get 35 points in this one, so we only need 14 from the Commanders to cash this OVER ticket, and I don't see that being a problem.  The 49ers and their opponents have combined for at least 51 points in three of their last four games.  The Commanders and their opponents have combined for at least 48 points in six consecutive games.  They are 5-1 OVER in those six games and if not for a missed XP on their final score against the Rams would be 6-0.  

The forecast looks good for a shootout in this one with temps in the 50's, no precipitation and only 7 MPH winds in Washington.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Lions/Cowboys OVER 52

The Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions are both dead nuts OVER teams, especially when the games are played indoors.  The Cowboys are averaging 39.9 points per game at home this season while the Lions are averaging 31.8 points per game in dome games, which includes their seven home games and road games at the Chargers, Saints and Vikings.  That's an average of over 70 combined points per game in indoor games for their offenses.  This total of 52 is too low.

Dallas will get its offense back on track this week after having to go outdoors and play two very good defenses in the Bills and Dolphins the last two weeks.  Both of those outdoor games went under the total, which has provided us some line value to back the OVER in this one.  Now they face a bad Lions defense that allows 25.3 points per game, 351.1 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play on the road this season.

The OVER is 6-1 in Detroit's last seven games overall.  Detroit and their opponents have combined for at least 51 points in six of those seven games, including 54 or more five times.  That includes games against poor offensive teams in the Bears, Saints, Broncos and Vikings.  Now they get to face another great offense that can match them, and what is an overrated Dallas defense that has been exposed in recent weeks.

Detroit is 8-2 OVER in turf games this season.  Dallas is 9-2 OVER in its last 11 home games after the first month of the season.  The Lions are 8-2 OVER in their last 10 games following a win.  Both offenses have all of their top playmakers on offense healthy, while both defenses are missing key players to injury.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Jets/Browns AFC No-Brainer on OVER 33.5

The Cleveland Browns have been a dead nuts OVER team since getting Joe Flacco.  Their pass rate has gone through the roof with 44 or more pass attempts in all four games he has started.  The Browns and their opponents have combined for 58, 37, 58, 55 and 41 points in their last five games overall.  As you can see, all five games would have gone over this short 33.5-point total, making for a 5-0 system backing the OVER.

The New York Jets and their opponents have combined for at least 36 points in four of their last six games overall.  It doesn't take much for an NFL game to top 33.5 combined points, especially with 34 being a very key number with 17-17, 20-14, 21-13 and 24-10 being four common scores that would get us to the OVER.

The Jets are also throwing the ball a ton right now with 36 or more attempts in five consecutive games.  Trevor Siemian threw it 49 times against the Commanders last week in leading the Jets to 30 points.  Both teams are pretty much fully healthy on offense from a playmakers perspective, which is something I want when backing an OVER.

Kevin Stefanski is 8-1 OVER in home games after gaining 400 or more yards last game as the coach of Cleveland.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

25* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Ravens/49ers OVER 45.5

The San Francisco 49ers have been an offensive juggernaut when healthy this season.  That basically means when they have had Trent Williams, Deebo Samuel and CMC on the field at the same time.  They got all three back healthy coming out of their bye week and have gone 6-0 since, scoring at least 27 points in every win while averaging 34.5 points per game in those six games.

The 49ers will get their points against a Baltimore defense that benefited from the Jaguars beating themselves offensively last week.  They drove inside the Baltimore 40 a handful of times and only had 7 points to show for it.  The 49ers will capitalize on their opportunities as they are one of the best red zone offenses in the NFL.  They will capitalize similar to the Rams, who put up 31 points and 449 yards on the Ravens the week prior in a 31-37 (OT) defeat.  This one will be a similar shootout.

The Ravens have scored at least 31 points in six of their last eight games overall.  They have their best offense of the Lamar Jackson era, averaging 27.4 points per game, 374.1 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  They haven't been as good as the 49ers, who average 30.4 points per game, 402.6 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play, but they are still one of the top offenses in the NFL.

The 49ers just allowed 29 points and 436 total yards to the Cardinals last week.  A big reason for their struggles defensively last week were injuries as they were missing LB Oren Burks, DT Javon Hargrave and DT Arik Armstead.  CB Deomodore Lenoir also suffered an injury in that game.  Burks, Hargrave and Armstead all missed practice again Thursday after sitting out last week, a bad sign for their availability Monday.  Lenoir did return to practice.

The 49ers struggle to defend mobile quarterbacks which is why Kyler Murray and the Cardinals had so much success against them last week.  They rushed for 234 yards on the 49ers.  Now the 49ers must face Lamar Jackson and a Baltimore offense that averages 164 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry.  But the 49ers should have success on the ground as well to open things up for Brock Purdy.  The Ravens have allowed at least 128 rushing yards in five of their last nine games overall.

I expect the 49ers to 30-plus in this one and the Ravens to get 20-plus.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tampa Bay Bucs ML -128

I was leaning toward the Bucs all week but I had to make sure that QB Trevor Lawrence was going to be out for the Jaguars.  As soon as I got that information I pulled the trigger on the Bucs.  Lawrence missed practice again Thursday and sources say he is unlikely to play due to a concussion and an ankle injury.

The Jaguars are in real trouble without him as they have one of the worst backup QB's in the NFL in CJ Bethard, which is saying something.  Bethard has a very hard time reading a defense and loves to just check it down or take off and run, and he's not very fast or athletic.  The Jaguars are going to be in a world of hurt offensively in this one, especially without WR Christian Kirk and WR Zay Jones as well.

The Jaguars are already in a world of hurt defensively, allowing 29.3 points per game and 425.3 yards per game during their current three-game losing streak.  Two of those games came against backup QB's in Joe Flacco and Jake Browning and the other was against the Ravens.  Now they must face Baker Mayfield and a Tampa Bay offense that is absolutely humming right now.

The Bucs are 3-0 in their last three games overall and gaining confidence with each win.  They are trying to win this game and grab a stranglehold on this division.  Mayfield is playing the best football of his career, putting up 29 points on the Falcons two weeks ago and 34 points on the Packers last week.  He had a perfect passer rating against the Packers, going 22-of-28 passing for 381 yards with 4 TD and zero INT while averaging 13.6 per attempt.

The Bucs are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.  Their entire starting 11 on offense is healthy, and they have been missing some key players on defense that they are likely to get back this week.  NT Vita Vea, DT William Gholston, CB Carlton Davis III, S Ryan Neal, CB Jamel Dean, LB Lavonte David and LB Devin White have all missed time recently.  Amazingly, all seven are expected to play this week.  The stock on the Bucs is very much on the rise due to this return to health defensively.  Bet the Bucs on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Browns/Texans OVER 41.5

Note: I grabbed this OVER 41.5 Sunday night with the anticipation it would move higher once CJ Stroud was announced in.  Now that he's not playing it has only been adjusted down to 40 as of this writing.  I love the OVER 40 even with Case Keenum starting in his place.  Here's why:

The Cleveland Browns have the No. 1 ranked scoring defense in the NFL at home but the 31st-ranked scoring defense on the road.  They allow 30.7 points per game and 6.1 yards per play on the road this season.  The OVER is 6-0 on all Cleveland road games as a result.

The Browns have also been much better offensively on the road than they have been at home.  They are scoring 24.2 points per game on the road.  Now they get to go play indoors with perfect scoring conditions in Houston.  This total of 40 is way too low for a road game involving the Browns.

Cleveland has gone to a pass-happy scheme since signing Joe Flacco.  They attempted 45 passes against the Bears, 45 against the Jaguars and 44 against the Rams.  All these pass attempts stop the clock more often and are beneficial to OVERS.  They are trying to get the ball out of Flacco's hand quick to help make up for injuries on the offensive line.  And Flacco has shown he's still one of the best deep ball throwers in the game.

This total has been adjusted down too much off the news that CJ Stroud is unlikely to play for a second straight week.  Veteran Case Keenum went on the road last week and beat the Titans.  He rebounded from an early pick-6 to lead the comeback victory in OT.  He will be much more comfortable in his 2nd game in this offensive scheme, which is one of the most diverse in the league.  Devin Singletary had 170 yards from scrimmage to take some of the pressure off Keenum last week, and he has emerged as a serious weapon in this offense.

Both Flacco and Keenum are prone to turnovers as Flacco has already thrown five interceptions in his three starts, while Keenum threw that terrible Pick 6 last week.  These turnovers could certainly help set up some easy scoring opportunities for both of these offenses.  Plus, these offenses will be up against two injury-ravaged defenses, and this is as much a play against these defenses as anything.

The Browns have three players on IR and five more questionable on defense.  The Texans have five players on IR and 5 defensive starters currently questionable.  The Texans have gotten some key weapons back healthy on offense recently in Noah Brown and Dalton Schultz, plus Nico Collins returned to practice this week.  They average 24.7 points per game, 394 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play at home this season.  The Browns have all of their top skill players fully healthy for this one, and they are forming chemistry with Flacco.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Atlanta Falcons -1

I love the spot for the Atlanta Falcons this week.  They will be 'all in' to get this win and stay alive in the tight NFC South race.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Falcons, who are 4-10 ATS this season and one of the worst covering teams in the NFL.  But they easily could be a lot better as they have six losses by one score this season, including five by 5 points or fewer.

Arthur Smith said QB Taylor Heineke will start the rest of the way as he is tired of watching Desmond Ridder and this offense struggle in the red zone with dumb turnovers.  He had another key turnover as the Falcons were trying to put the game away late in a 9-7 loss to the Panthers last week.  Now we 'buy low' on the Falcons off that defeat.

The Falcons have been much more potent offensively at home.  They score 23.3 points per game, averaging 388 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play at home.  The Falcons have rushed for 122 or more yards in six of their last seven games overall.  I like this matchup for their offense up against a Colts defense that has allowed 111 or more rushing yards in seven of their last eight games overall.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Colts, who are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have been fortunate in close games winning three of their last four by one score.  Their luck runs out this week, and their defense will get exposed.  The Falcons have the better defense allowing 19.9 points per game, 311.7 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play.  The Colts allow 24.5 points per game, 347.5 yards per game and 5.4 per play.

A big reason money is pouring in on the Falcons this week is due to the great news they got Thursday on their injury report.  LT Jake Matthews, C Drew Dalman, G Chris Lindstrom and T Kaleb McGary all returned to practice Thursday and they should have all five starters healthy for this one, which hasn't been the case the last few weeks.  Defensively, DE Calais Campbell and NT David Onyemata both returned to practice Thursday as well.  The Falcons could be as healthy as they have been since the beginning of the season, which is what they need for this stretch run.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Texans ML -135

Note: Merry Christmas! Those of you who bought this play later in the week get a much better line on the Texans at +3/+2.5 than I did when I hit the opener on Sunday night. I apologize to those who bet it early with me and got a worse line than current, which rarely happens. I expected CJ Stroud to return from a concussion, but it's going to be Case Keenum instead.   I added more money at +3.  I still expect the Texans to win this game even with Keenum.  This play was more of a fade of the Browns than anything.  Here's why:

The Cleveland Browns have the No. 1 ranked scoring defense in the NFL at home but the 31st-ranked scoring defense on the road.  They allow 30.7 points per game and 6.1 yards per play on the road this season.  The Browns have three players on IR and five more questionable on defense.  The Texans have been at their best offensively at home, averaging 24.7 points per game, 394 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play at home this season.

Veteran Case Keenum went on the road last week and beat the Titans.  He rebounded from an early pick-6 to lead the comeback victory in OT.  He will be much more comfortable in his 2nd game in this offensive scheme, which is one of the most diverse in the league.  Devin Singletary had 170 yards from scrimmage against the Titans to take pressure off Keenum.  

The Texans have gotten some key weapons back healthy on offense recently in Noah Brown and Dalton Schultz, plus Nico Collins returned to practice this week.  Also expected to play are OT Laremy Tunsil, G Shaq Mason, WR John Metchie, S Jimmie Ward and LB Denzel Perryman as the injury report came out pretty clean on Thursday compared to what most were expecting.

Joe Flacco is getting way too much love right now.  He has beaten a hobbled Trevor Lawrence and a flat-lining Jaguars team at home.  He needed a 10-point comeback in the 4th quarter to beat the Bears at home last week.  And in his lone road start, he lost 35-19 to the Rams.  Flacco has thrown 5 interceptions in his three starts and is playing behind the most banged-up offensive line in the NFL.  The Browns are missing their top three offensive tackles, and currently four more projected starters are questionable or doubtful.  Flacco and this offensive line will get exposed on the road this week in a hostile environment against a solid Houston defense.

The Browns are 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS on the road this season and getting outgained by 1.2 yards per play away from home.  Kevin Stefanski is 5-17 ATS games after covering the spread in two of his last three games as the coach of Cleveland.  The Browns are 14-36 ATS in their last 50 games vs. good rushing defenses allowing 3.5 or fewer yards per carry.  Houston will win this game outright.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Colts/Falcons OVER 43.5

The Indianapolis Colts are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 10-4 OVER in all games this season.  They run an up-tempo, creative offense under Shane Steichen and have a terrible defense.  The Colts are expected to get their two biggest playmakers back on offense this week in WR Michael Pittman Jr. and RB Jonathan Stewart.

Now they hit the road to face an Atlanta Falcons team that is also built for more OVERS, especially with the upgrade of Taylor Heineke at QB.  Arthur Smith said Heineke will start the rest of the way as he is tired of watching Desmond Ridder and this offense struggle in the red zone with dumb turnovers.  He had another key turnover as the Falcons were trying to put the game away late in a 9-7 loss to the Panthers in terrible weather conditions outdoors last week.  That score is suppressing this total as well and providing us with some line value on the OVER.

The Falcons have been much more potent offensively at home.  They score 23.3 points per game, averaging 388 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play at home.  But they have a poor defense that has allowed 25 or more points in four of their last seven games.  Both teams will get their points in this one.

The Falcons have rushed for 122 or more yards in six of their last seven games overall.  I like this matchup for their offense up against a Colts defense that has allowed 111 or more rushing yards in seven of their last eight games overall.  But the Colts will get their points as well as they always do, putting up 27 or more points in six of their last eight games overall.

Indianapolis is 8-2 OVER in games played on turf this season.  The Colts are 25-7 OVER in their last 32 road games after covering the spread in four of their last five games.  Plays on the OVER on all teams against the total (Atlanta) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent in the 2nd half of the season are 30-9 (76.9%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Bills/Chargers AFC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 43.5

The Los Angeles Chargers absolutely quit defensively last week.  They gave up 63 points to the lowly Raiders, who had been shut out the previous week.  I don't trust this defense to show up at all against the Bills on Saturday, and I expect the Bills to hang a big number on the Chargers to lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.

The Bills have scored at least 31 points in three of their last four games overall and I expect them to get 31-plus in this one.  I like what I saw from the Chargers offensively late in that loss to the Raiders.  They were down 63-7 and kept trying to score, putting up two touchdowns in the final eight minutes.  They will keep coming on offense as Easton Stick is trying to prove he belongs.

The Bills have a very banged up defense.  They are without CB White and LB MIlano, plus a ton of players have the questionable tag this week in DE Epenesa, DT Phillips, DE Floyd, CB Elam and FS Hyde.  They would be a legit Super Bowl contender if they could just get some of these guys healthy, but that won't be the case this week.  The Chargers have five defenders on IR and four more questionable for this one.

The Chargers and Bills have combined for 44, 51 and 78 points in their last three meetings.  This total is just too short tonight for a game involving these two banged-up defenses and two capable offenses in perfect scoring conditions in Los Angeles.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Saints/Rams NFC No-Brainer on OVER 44.5

The Los Angeles Rams are healthy on offense with Stafford, Nacua, Kupp and Williams and showing what they are capable of when that's the case.  The Rams have scored 28 or more points in four consecutive games and are averaging 33 points per game in those four games and hung 31 on the Ravens and 36 on the Browns, two of the best defenses in the NFL.

The Saints' defense isn't nearly as good as it gets credit for.  The Saints have faced one of the easiest schedules of opposing offenses and quarterbacks this season.  They still gave up 27 points to the Colts, 27 to the Vikings and 24 to the Falcons.  The only legit offense they faced in recent weeks was the Lions, and they gave up 33 points in a 33-28 loss that saw 61 combined points.  They are without CB Marshon Lattimore and S Marcus Maye, and their secondary will get exposed by the Rams.

But the Saints are getting healthier on offense now and showing what they are capable of.  They have scored 24 or more points six of their last eight games overall.  Now they are expected to get back their top receiver in Chris Olave for this one after he sat out against the Giants with an ankle injury.  I think they can keep pace with the Rams and will be forced to try and keep up in a shootout because they aren't going to be able to stop Stafford and company.

The last four Rams' games have seen 48, 68, 55 and 51 combined points.  The Rams and Saints have combined for at least 46 points in five of their last six meetings.  This 44.5-point total is too short.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Eagles/Seahawks ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 47.5

The Philadelphia Eagles and Seattle Seahawks have two banged up, tired defenses right now heading into this Monday Night Football showdown.  These are also two very healthy offenses that can take advantages of these defenses.  That's why I'm on the OVER, plus the forecast looks pretty good for a shootout with light winds and temps in the 40's.

The Seahawks have allowed 33.3 points per game, 438.3 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play in their last three games.  They have six players in the front seven depth chart that are out or on the IR.  They have two more secondary players on IR and three more questionable, including CB Devon Witherspoon.  They have no depth right now, and SS Jamal Adams continues to get exposed in coverage week after week.

The Eagles are allowing 36.3 points per game, 451.7 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play in their last three games.  The Eagles have four players on IR in the back seven, plus FS Reed Blankenship suffered a concussion last week and will likely sit.  He means a lot to his secondary.  CB Darius Slay has lost a step and is questionable.  Opponents are really picking on this Eagles' secondary, and the Seahawks will be able to do the same.  This defense was on the field for 73 plays against the Chiefs, 91 against the Bills, 55 against the 49ers and then 71 plays against the Cowboys.

The Eagles have been getting a lot of grief on offense the last two games against the 49ers and Cowboys.  They fumbled three times in Dallas territory and should have scored more.  They finally get a reprieve here against the Seahawks, who have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  So they should get right on offense.  

The Seahawks have been good offensively the last two weeks scoring 35 points against the Cowboys before Geno Smith sat out last week, but they were still productive against the 49ers.  They get Smith back this week from a groin injury and also take a big step down in defensive class here after having to face the 49ers (twice) and Cowboys in their last three games.

Pete Carroll is 30-12 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of Seattle.  Both of these teams are dead nuts OVER teams in their current form and both offenses should be able to take advantage of two of the worst secondaries in the NFL.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Cowboys/Bills Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Buffalo ML -120

The Dallas Cowboys hadn't beaten a team that currently has a winning record all season until they finally got that monkey off their back last week against the Philadelphia Eagles.  Now I think this is a massive letdown spot for the Cowboys coming off that win over their biggest rivals.

The Cowboys had some aid in that game as the Eagles came in with a very tired defense that was on the field for a ton of players the previous two games against the Bills and 49ers.  The Eagles didn't have much left in the tank, and they also had three costly fumbles that were somehow all recovered by the Cowboys.

While this Dallas offense has been humming at home and indoors, the Cowboys now have to go on the road and play on grass in the elements.  I don't think their offense will be nearly as effective.  They also take a big step up in class in opposing defenses after getting to play the Eagles, Seahawks and Commanders the last three weeks.  I think the Bills have the better defense in this matchup.

How has Dallas fared lately on the road outdoors on grass?  How about 1-8 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last eight road games on grass.  Now they must take on a rested Bills team that had a bye two weeks ago before going on the road and upsetting the Chiefs 20-17 as underdogs last week.  Now the Bills are very much alive for the playoffs with a lot to play for.  

It will be a raucous atmosphere in Buffalo working in their advantage as the Cowboys rely a lot on timing for their offense.  You hear Dak use "Here We Go" before every snap at home, and it gives them an advantage with that cadence to time it right.  Players won't be able to hear him in Buffalo, and I think we see a ton of Cowboys penalties on offense in this game because of it.  This is one of the most undisciplined teams in the NFL under Mike McCarthy as it is.

I was on Buffalo last week and said they were the best 6-6 team in the history of the NFL, and now they are the best 7-6 team in NFL history.  All six of their losses have come by 6 points or less, so they have been unfortunate in close games.  They are outscoring opponents by 8.0 points per game, outgaining them by 57 yards per game and outgaining them by 0.3 yards per play on the season.

Sean McDermott is 11-2 ATS after a win by 3 points or less as the coach of Buffalo.  They finally won a close game and now have a ton of confidence and new life heading into this week.  They are still very much alive to win the AFC East with the Dolphins injured and faltering.  Dating back further, Buffalo is 43-18 ATS in its last 61 games off a win by 3 point or less.  Bet the Bills on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Rams -6.5

The Los Angeles Rams have fought their way back into playoff contention since getting healthy.  All of Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have been banged up at times this season and missed games.  But now all four are healthy and we're getting to see that this is one of the best offenses in the NFL when that's the case.

The Commanders have the worst defense in the NFL since they traded away Chase Young and Montez Sweat.  They weren't very good before making those moves, but they have been even worse after.  They allowed 38 points to the Eagles, 29 points and 489 yards to the Seahawks, 31 points to the Giants, 45 points and 431 yards to the Cowboys and then 45 points and 406 yards to the Dolphins in their five games other than the Patriots during this stretch.  The Patriots have one of the worst offenses in the NFL.

The Rams are going to hang a big number on them, too.  The Rams are humming on offense right now scoring 37 points with 457 yards on the Cardinals, 36 points with 399 yards on the Browns and 31 points with 410 yards against the Ravens in their last three games.  Baltimore and Cleveland have two of the best defenses in the NFL, so this will be a big step down in class for them.

Stafford is completing 60% of his passes for 3,062 yards with a 19-to-9 TD/INT ratio this season and averaging 7.3 per attempt.  Williams has rushed for 801 yards and accounted for 10 total TD while averaging 5.0 per attempt on the ground.  Having him back in the lineup has meant everything.  Kupp is finally fully healthy for the first time all season, and Nacua has 82 receptions for 1,113 yards and 4 TD to emerge as one of the top receivers in the NFL already.

The Rams have also allowed 20 or fewer points in four of their last five games overall as they have finally gotten healthy.  Only the Ravens hung more than 20 on them, and the Ravens have one of the best offenses in the NFL.  Now they face a Commanders offense that has been held to 20 points or fewer in four of their last five games.  Sam Howell is a turnover machine as the Commanders have 11 turnovers in their last five games during this stretch.  Howell is going to have to play a flawless game for the Commanders to have any chance, and I don't see that happening.  This line should be -7 or higher.

You also have to question the motivation of Washington.  Ron Rivera fired a couple staff members already, and he is a dead man walking at the end of the season and players know it.  It's going to be hard for these players to be motivated the rest of the way knowing that's the case.  The Rams are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 December games.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Cardinals +14

I love the spot for the Arizona Cardinals this week.  They are coming off their bye week and these bye weeks are usually more effective for teams with first-year head coaches like Arizona.  The Cardinals continue to show up every week and have been competitive in three of their last four games, including outright upsets over Atlanta at home and Pittsburgh on the road since getting Kyler Murray back.  They also only lost by 5 at Houston as 5.5-point dogs, going 3-1 ATS in their last four games.  Their only blowout loss came to the Rams, a team that has owned them since Sean McVay took over.

This is a terrible spot for the San Francisco 49ers.  They have won five consecutive games since their bye week with the last three coming against the Seahawks (twice) and Eagles.  After playing two division games and getting their revenge on the Eagles, this is the 'exhale' game for the 49ers.  They just want to get in and get out with a victory in Arizona.  They won't be worrying about getting margin.  Plus, they have another massive game against Baltimore on deck, so that makes this a sandwich spot for them.

We saw the Seahawks cover against the 49ers last week after getting blown out by them in the first meeting.  I think we see the same thing here.  Arizona lost 35-16 in San Francisco as 15-point underdogs in that first meeting this season.  But that game was a lot closer than the final score would indicate.  The 49ers only outgained the Cardinals by 33 yards in that game.  Josh Dobbs was the starting QB in that game, and twice receivers dropped TD passes that would have gotten the Cardinals the back door cover in the closing seconds.  Murray is clearly and upgrade over Dobbs.

The 49ers had six starters miss practice on Wednesday heading into this game.  DT Arik Armstead, OL Spencer Burford, LB Oren Burks, LB Dre Greenlaw, DT Javon Hargrave and CB Charvaius Ward were all out Wednesday.  That makes all six questionable heading into this one, and I would not be surprised to see the 49ers be cautious with some of these guys thinking they can still beat the Cardinals without them.

The Cardinals should get rookie WR Michael Wilson back for the first time since November 17th.  There's also a decent chance WR Marquise Brown plays after the bye week.  CB Antonio Hamilton sat out last game but is back practicing.  The bottom line is the Cardinals should be much healthier this week, while the 49ers have a lot of key players that could miss this game after getting battered against the Seahawks last week.

It's time to 'sell high' on the 49ers, who are power-rated through the roof by everyone right now.  Plays against road favorites (San Francisco) - a dominant team outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game after a win by 10 points or more are 48-17 (73.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on 49ers/Cardinals OVER 47.5

The San Francisco 49ers have the best offense in the NFL right now.  They are scoring 29.2 points per game, averaging 402.3 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play.  They are fully healthy on offense right now and have scored at least 27 points in five consecutive games.  They will get their points against the Cardinals this week as well.

But I think the Cardinals can get their points, too.  They are coming off a bye week and should get WR Michael Wilson back this week.  The Cardinals put up 24 points on the Steelers the game going into their bye, and they are primed for another solid performance here against the 49ers.  They should have some new offensive wrinkles for Murray under a first-year head coach coming out of their bye.

The Cardinals do have one of the worst defenses in the NFL allowing 25.5 points per game, 355.3 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play.  They have allowed 35, 38, 38 and 31 points to the 49ers in their last four meetings.  The OVER is 4-0 in those four meetings with 48 or more combined points in all four.

The 49ers have a very good defense, but they have some concerning injuries on that side of the ball right now.  Four starters in LB Dre Greenlaw, CB Charvarius Ward, DL Javon Hargrave and LB Oren Burks all missed practice on Wednesday and are all questionable to play this week.  The Seahawks found success against them last week even with backup QB Drew Lock.  I think this could be a letdown spot for this San Francisco defense.  Josh Dobbs and Arizona's offense put up 362 total yards on the 49ers in their first meeting this season.  Kyler Murray should have even more success.  

The OVER is 5-0-1 in Arizona's six home games this season inside the dome.  We are seeing 51.9 combined points per game in these six games.  Five of the six games have seen 48 or more combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Commanders/Rams OVER 48.5

The Washington Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team.  The OVER 4-0 in their last four games overall with 50 or more combined points in all four.  They have gone for 50 or more combined points in five of their last six games with the lone exception being their game against the Patriots, who are a dead nuts under team with no offense and a great defense.

The Commanders have the worst defense in the NFL since they traded away Chase Young and Montez Sweat.  They weren't very good before making those moves, but they have been even worse after.  They allowed 38 points to the Eagles, 29 points and 489 yards to the Seahawks, 31 points to the Giants, 45 points and 431 yards to the Cowboys and then 45 points and 406 yards to the Dolphins in their five games other than the Patriots during this stretch.

The Rams are going to hang a big number on them, too.  The Rams are humming on offense right now scoring 37 points with 457 yards on the Cardinals, 36 points with 399 yards on the Browns and 31 points with 410 yards against the Ravens.  Baltimore and Cleveland have two of the best defenses in the NFL, so this will be a big step down in class for them.  The OVER is 3-0 in Rams last three games overall with 51, 55 and 68 combined points.  Their defense gave up 37 points and 449 yards to the Ravens last week.

The Commanders are coming off their bye week and should have some new wrinkles on offense to give this mediocre Rams defense some troubles.  Rookie QB Sam Howell ranks 5th in the NFL in passing yards with 3,449 yards this season.  He has ample weapons outside to get the ball to, and he's a dual-threat who averages 6.1 yards per attempt and has 5 rushing touchdowns this season.  He is also a turnover machine.  This offense is pretty much fully healthy heading into this game and will have to go up-tempo in the 2H to try and keep up with the Rams, who will name their number.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bears +3.5

I've backed the Bears each of the last two weeks and they delivered pulling off the outright upsets over the Vikings and Lions.  I'm going to back them again this week as 3.5-point road dogs to Cleveland as they continue to be undervalued.  Their season-long stats are keeping them undervalued because they have been a completely different team in the 2nd half of the season.

It basically started when they traded for Montez Sweat and the defense got healthy.  The Bears have allowed 13 points or fewer in three of their last four games.  The held the Lions to just 14 points with only a few minutes left in the game before the Lions went off for 17 points in the final couple minutes.  They got their revenge on the Lions with a 28-13 home win last week, holding them to 267 total yards in the process.

Now the Bears actually feel like they are still alive for the playoffs at 5-8 this season.  If they win this game against Cleveland, then they have two home games they will likely be favored in the next two weeks against Arizona and Atlanta.  They can legitimately get to 8-8 this season, and that would keep them alive because the 6-7 Packers are currently in the playoffs in the NFC if the season were to end today.  They play the Packers in Week 18.

Justin Fields returned against the Lions three weeks ago and has been playing some pretty flawless football both as a runner and as a passer.  He has found a great connection with DJ Moore, and the Bears have really opened up the playbook.  Also helping matters is the fact that the Bears are currently the healthiest team in the NFL.  They only have five players on the injury report and two are likely to play this week with only one for sure out.

Conversely, the Cleveland Browns are the most injury-riddled team in the entire NFL right now.  They are down to their 4th different starting QB in Joe Flacco, and while he has played well, there's reason to believe he won't this week.  That's because the offensive line will be without their top 3 offensive tackles.  G Joel Bitonio and C Ethan Pocic are also questionable.  This is an absolute mash unit up front for Flacco.

Defensively, DE Myles Garrett is banged up.  DT Jordan Elliott, CB Denzel Ward, and FS Juan Thornhill are all questionable.  SS Grant Delpit just hit the IR after suffering a groin injury last week.  This Cleveland defense has taken a big step back in recent weeks due to all these injuries.  They are allowing 30.7 points per game in their last three games.  They gave up 29 to Denver, 36 to the Rams and 27 to the Jaguars.  The Bears are going to have a lot of success against this defense, especially on the ground.  Cleveland is allowing 130 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per game in its last four games.

Cleveland would have gone five consecutive games without winning once by more than 3 points if the Jaguars had kicked the XP at the end in a 4-point loss.  That's why getting this +3.5 number is so key.  Also keep in mind the Jaguars were playing with a banged-up and immobile Trevor Lawrence, he was missing his top receiver and both starting tackles on offense.  Yet the Jaguars still scored 27 points on them.  And this will be the toughest defense that Joe Flacco will have faced after getting to face the Jaguars and Rams previously.  I fully expect Chicago to win this game outright.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Giants +6

The New York Giants have been grossly undervalued since Tommy DeVito took over as the full-time starter.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with three outright upsets.  They beat Washington 31-19 as 7.5-point road dogs, the Patriots 10-7 as 4.5-point home dogs and the Packers 24-22 as 5.5-point home dogs.  Now they are being undervalued again here as 6-point road dogs at New Orleans.

DeVito has been much better than he gets credit for.  He is completing 66% of his passes with an 8-to-3 TD/INT ratio while averaging 6.8 per attempt, plus he adds a dual-threat dimension with 71 rushing yards and on 10 attempts against the Packers.  The Giants used their bye well and came up with the proper game plan to beat the Packers and use DeVito's legs more.  And now they should still be fresh considering they just had a bye week to make up for the fact that this is a short week after playing on Monday Night Football.

But while I believe the Giants are undervalued, this is as much a bet against the Saints being overvalued as anything.  They are coming off one of the most misleading finals of the season last week when they beat the Panthers 28-6.  They only gained 207 yards in that game and gave up 303 yards to the Panthers, nearly getting outgained by 100 yards despite winning by 22.

Derek Carr came out and said he's playing through fractured ribs.  This is a very banged up Saints team with their top two WR's in Olave and Shaheed questionable.  G Andrus Peat is also questionable as is do-it-all QB Taysom Hill, who sat out last week.  Defensively, the Saints have lost their best CB in Marshon Lattimore, starting S Marcus Maye and starting DT Malcolm Roach who are all on injured reserve.

I just don't think there's much separating these two teams right now.  The Giants' season-long stats are keeping them undervalued because they are a much better team now than they were in the first half of the season.  They are as healthy as they have been all season on the offensive line and at receiver, plus having RB Saquan Barkley healthy has made a big difference as well.  Their defense is good enough to keep them in this game for four quarters and is playing at a high level right now.  The team clearly has belief now with DeVito under center.

Derek Carr is 19-37 ATS as a favorite in his career, including 9-26 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or more.  Dennis Allen is 6-16 ATS as a favorite as a head coach, including 2-8 ATS this season.  Allen is 0-7 ATS after a win by 10 points or more as a head coach.  New Orleans is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game.  New York is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  The Saints are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 home games vs. poor teams that are outscored by 6-plus points per game on the season.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

20* Broncos/Lions Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Denver +5.5

The Detroit Lions just cannot be trusted right now because they are so poor defensively.  They allowed 38 points to the Chargers, 26 points to the Bears, 29 points to the Packers, 28 to the Saints and 28 to the Bears in their last five games.  There is no help in sight, especially since they lost one of their most important defensive players in DT Alim McNeill to injured reserve two games ago.

Jared Goff is not playing well either and he has poor protection in front of him.  Both T Taylor Decker and C Frank Ragnow are questionable for this game.  Now he'll be up against a very good Denver defense that has allowed 22 or fewer points in eight consecutive games and an average of 14.8 points per game in those eight games.  They have been grossly undervalued after a poor start to the season by their defense, but now they are healthy and showing what they are capable of.

This defensive surge for the Broncos is a big reason why they are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last even games overall with their lone loss coming by 5 points at Houston in a game where they had a chance to win in the closing seconds but threw an INT in the end zone.  They beat the Chiefs, Bills, Vikings, Browns, Packers and Chargers during this 6-1 stretch, so it's not like they are beating up on the weak.  Five of those six wins came against playoff contenders.

This Denver offense is taking care of the football with a ball control offense and taking shots when they are there.  The Broncos have scored at least 21 points in five of their last six games overall, and they won't have a problem getting to that number against this soft Detroit defense.  This is actually a big step down in class for them after facing the Chargers, Texans, Broncos, Vikings, Bills and Chiefs in their last six games.  Russell Wilson is in line for a big game, as is RB Javonte Williams and this Denver rushing attack.

Detroit is 35-58 ATS in its last 93 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  Sean Payton is 28-12 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as a head coach.  Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Detroit) - after allowing 25 points or more in four consecutive games are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS since 1983.  This game will likely be decided by a FG either way.  Bet the Broncos Saturday.

15* Vikings/Bengals NFL Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 39

The Cincinnati Bengals are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They have a terrible defense that has allowed 30 or more points in three of their last five games overall.  They also allowed over 400 yards to the Steelers in one of the two games they didn't.  They allow 379 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season.

The offense hasn't missed a beat with Jake Browning at quarterback the last two weeks plus the emergence of Chase Brown in the backfield.  Ja'Marr Chase has been balling out for Browning, and having a healthy Tee Higgins back in the lineup has helped as well.

Browning is completing 76% of his passes for 924 yards with a 5-to-2 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.1 per attempt.  He went 32-of-37 passing for 354 yards against the Jaguars and 18-of-24 passing for 275 yards against the Colts in his last two games as the full-time starter.

The Vikings are making the switch to Nick Mullens at QB after the Josh Dobbs experiment did not work.  He was dreadful against the Bears and Raiders the last two weeks.  Mullens is a better fit for Kevin O'Connell's offensive system and will stand in the pocket and make the right throws.  He should be sharp with a full week to prepare to be the starter.

Mullens got good news on the injury front with WR Justin Jefferson expected to play.  He returned last week and got injured early against the Raiders.  I also think this Vikings offense will benefit from taking a step down in class this week against this Bengals defense.  The Vikings have played four straight good defenses in the Raiders, Bears, Broncos and Saints.

At the same time, this Minnesota defense is getting a lot of credit for what they have done in recent weeks.  But they have also benefited from an easy schedule of opposing offenses in the Raiders, Bears, Broncos and Saints the last four weeks as well.  This is a big step up in class for them facing a Cincinnati offense that is humming right now.

The forecast looks great for a game in Cincinnati in December as well.  There are expected to be only 5 MPH winds with temps in the 50's.  I do think this game has shootout written all over it too, and this total is very low for a game involving the Bengals right now.

The OVER is 5-2 in Bengals last seven games overall and we've seen 42 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  Zac Taylor is 8-1 OVER off a home win by 10 points or more as the coach of Cincinnati. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MNF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Titans/Dolphins OVER 46.5

Miami averages 32.0 points per game, 428.4 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play this season as the top offense in the league.  They have managed to stay remarkably healthy at receiver and QB, and they just got their explosive RB in Achane back from a knee injury last week.  He averages 9.5 yards per carry with 534 rushing yards and 7 TD, while also catching 13 balls for 101 yards and another 2 TD.  He and Mostert form one of the best 1-2 punches in the NFL, and they are in line for big games in this one.

The Dolphins have an improving defense with Jalen Ramsey returning from injury, but unfortunately they lost another key cog two weeks ago in pass-rusher Jaelan Phillips late in their 34-13 road win over the Jets.  They also potentially lost fellow LB Jerome Baker to a knee injury in their 45-15 win over the Commanders last week.  They are getting short on pass rushers.

The Titans are coming off a 31-28 (OT) shootout loss to the Colts last week.  They did enough on offense to win that game with 381 total yards.  Unfortunately their defense and special teams let them down, and they lost their punter to injury after having his 2nd punt blocked.  They also lost Derrick Henry, but he cleared concussion protocol and there's a good chance he plays this week.  But the big loss is DT Jeffery Simmons, who suffered a knee injury last week and is now out for this game.  Simmons is one of the best DT in the entire NFL and one of the most underrated as well.

The Dolphins are going to be able to name their number against this putrid Tennessee defense that allows 67.3% completions and 7.1 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks.  They gave up 31 points and 300 passing yards to the Colts last week.  They gave up 34 points in their previous road game to the Jaguars.  And now they will be up against the best offense they have faced all season this week.

I think Will Levis can do enough to keep the Titans coming back and help cash this OVER ticket.  Levis is one of the top deep ball throwers in the NFL right now and has found a good connection with DeAndre Hopkins.  He also has a weapon in Tyjae Spears out of the backfield and is forming chemistry with Chigoziem Okonkwo, who had 3 receptions for 62 yards against the Colts last week.

Miami and its opponents have combined for at least 47 points in nine of its 12 games this season.  The only exceptions were against three teams with bad offenses and good defenses in the Patriots, Chiefs and Raiders.  The Titans don't meet the criteria of a good defense, especially after trading away S Kevin Byard and now losing DT Jeffery Simmons to injury.

Plays on the OVER on any team (Tennessee) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival in the 2nd half of the season are 29-7 (80.6%) over the last five seasons.  Teams in this situation off a 7-point loss or less are 41-15 (73.2%) to the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Giants +7

It's time to 'sell high' on the Green Bay Packers this week.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with three outright upsets as underdogs.  They took advantage of several drops by the Chargers and won 23-20 as 3-point home dogs.  They took advantage of more mistakes by the Lions in a 29-22 win as 8.5-point road dogs on Thanksgiving.

Last week they didn't have a letdown because they had the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs come to Lambeau Field.  They promptly pulled off the 27-19 upset as 6-point home dogs.  The Chiefs' offense remained broken, and they lost two starters on defense and one on offense due to injury throughout the game.

This is the letdown spot.  Now the Packers go from 6-point home dogs to 7-point road favorites against the New York Giants.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Giants as they were the Lions and Chiefs.  You just can't get up for opponents this many games in a row.  This is a clear flat spot for the Packers, who are fat and happy right now and primed for that dreaded letdown.

Meanwhile, the New York Giants continue to get no respect from the books for a 3rd consecutive game.  The Giants pulled the 31-19 upset as 7.5-point road dogs to the Commanders two games ago.  They pulled the 10-7 upset home win over the Patriots as 4.5-point dogs in their last game.  And last week they had a bye to rest and recover and prepare to face the Packers.

Head coach Brian Daboll is one of the best in the business at getting the most out of his players.  He will come up with the proper game plan to get his team ready.  Tommy DeVito has been much better than he gets credit for, completing 63% of his passes with a 7-to-3 TD/INT ratio in five games this season.  He has more TD passes (7) than Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor (4) have combined for this season.  And the team loves him and is playing hard for him, which is what matters most.

The Giants have a pretty good defense and have held opponents to just 18.2 points per game, 271 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play at home this season.  They will come up with the proper game plan to slow down Jordan Love and company.  Love and WR Christian Watson were forming a great chemistry, but Watson suffered a hamstring injury late in the win over the Chiefs and is doubtful to play this week.  Also doubtful is RB Aaron Jones, and TE Luke Musgrave remains out.  The Watson injury in particular is massive because the Packers have a bunch of no-name receivers outside he and Doubs.

The Giants have a healthy Saquon Barkley to deploy against this shaky Packers run defense and take some pressure off DeVito.  The Packers have allowed at least 140 rushing yards in four consecutive games.  They allow 136 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry on the season, making them one of the worst teams in the NFL at stopping the run.  They are 30th in rushing yards per game allowed and 26th in yards per carry allowed.

Green Bay is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games vs. teams that allow 130 or more rushing yards per game.  Plays against road favorites (Green Bay) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams that allow 335-370 YPG), after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS since 1983.  The Packers will get more of a fight from the rested Giants than they bargained for Monday night.  It's time to 'sell high' on Green Bay.  Bet the Giants Monday.

25* Eagles/Cowboys NBC SNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas -3

My favorite play last week was the 49ers over the Eagles.  One of my favorite plays this week is the Cowboys over the Eagles for many of the same reasons.  Just like the 49ers wanted revenge from their playoff loss to the Eagles, the Cowboys want revenge from their 28-23 loss in Philadelphia earlier this season.

Just like the 49ers had the rest advantage on the Eagles after playing on Thursday while the Eagles played on Monday the previous week, the Cowboys have the rest advantage after playing on Thursday while the Eagles were in that war with the 49ers.  In fact, the Eagles have been in several wars here recently and don't have anything left in the tank for the Cowboys.

The Eagles are a tired team that has been through the gauntlet.  They put in a lot against the 49ers last week in their 42-19 defeat.  They just went to OT against the Bills the week prior in a downpour.  They came back from a double-digit 2H deficit to beat the Chiefs on Monday Night Football the week prior.  And they held off the Cowboys 28-23 at home with a late stand the game prior.  So this will be their 5th consecutive game against one of the top teams in the NFL.

The Eagles' defense in particular is worn out.  They were on the field for 73 plays against the Chiefs and then 91 plays against the Bills.  They gave up 515 total yards to the Bills and then were gashed for 42 points and 456 yards by the 49ers.  They also banged up and injured, particularly on defense.

The Steelers got a lot of grief for getting outgained in every game this season up until the last two weeks.  Well, the Eagles have been working miracles with what they have been able to do in recent weeks.  They beat the Commanders five games ago despite giving up 472 total yards and getting outgained by 98 yards, they beat the Cowboys four games ago despite allowing 406 yards and getting outgained by 114 yards, they beat the Chiefs three games ago despite getting outgained by 98 yards and they beat the Bills two weeks ago despite allowing 505 yards and getting outgained by 127 yards.  They were outgained by 123 yards by the 49ers last week.

As you can see, the Eagles have been outgained by 98 or more yards in five consecutive games and somehow managed to win four of them.  They are the luckiest team in the NFL going 7-1 in games decided by one score.  Their luck ran out last week against the 49ers, and it won't come back this week against a Cowboys team that is fresher, healthier and simply wants it more.

The numbers certainly show the Cowboys are the better team.  They are outgaining opponents by 93 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play this season, while the Eagles are only outgaining opponents by 11 yards per game and actually getting outgained by 0.1 yards per play.  Dallas should be more than a 3-point home favorite when you consider they are the better team with all those rest and healthy advantages to boot.

Dallas is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 25.2 points per game.  The Cowboys are scoring 41.0 points per game at home this season.  They have scored 40, 41, 37, 37 and 29 points in their last five home meetings with the Eagles while going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in those five home meetings.  Betting Dallas team total over 27.5 is also worth a bet this week.  

Dallas is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 400 or more yards in its previous game.  The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. awful passing defenses allowing 260 or more passing yards per game.  Dallas is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 30 points or more last game.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing Dallas.  The Cowboys were looking ahead to this game against Philadelphia and still managed to beat the Seahawks 41-35 last week.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.