|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|02-13-22||Rams v. Bengals +4.5||Top||23-20||Win||100||201 h 42 m||Show|
20* Rams/Bengals Super Bowl 56 No-Brainer on Cincinnati +4.5
Note: Scroll down for my Top 15 Prop Bets!
The Cincinnati Bengals have been grossly undervalued all postseason and even at the end of the regular season. They have gone 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall. Their lone loss came to the Browns in Week 18 in a meaningless game after they had already clinched the division.
After beating the Raiders 26-19 at home in the opening round, the Bengals have proven their toughness on the road by going into Tennessee and winning outright 19-16 as 4-point underdogs. Then they trailed 21-3 at Kansas City, only to outscore the Chiefs 24-3 the rest of the way to pull the 27-24 upset as 7-point underdogs in OT.
Clearly, the Bengals feel like they are invincible right now after that comeback against the Chiefs. They won't be phased by this being a 'road' game with the Rams hosting the Super Bowl. Joe Burrow has made me a lot of money dating back to college, and I'm riding with him here. He'll make enough plays to keep the Bengals in this game for four quarters, and he'll lead a comeback if he needs to.
But what is getting overlooked and has with this team all season is how well the defense has played. The Bengals have allowed 24 or fewer points in six of their last seven games overall. They are allowing just 21.8 points per game this season, which is right on par with the Rams' 21.4 points per game. Yet the Rams are perceived to have the much better defense due to all the stars they have. For the Bengals defense, the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. They have been Top 5 in offense and Top 5 in defense in basically every major category since their bye week.
The Rams benefited from getting to face a reeling, banged up Cardinals team, a depleted Bucs team and a 49ers team with arguably the worst quarterback in the playoffs. This will be their toughest test of the postseason. The Bengals had no such luxury as the Titans were as healthy as they had been all season, and the Chiefs were pretty much at full strength as well. And both wins came on the road in hostile atmospheres.
Cincinnati is 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last two seasons. The Bengals are 8-2 ATS in road games this season. Cincinnati is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall. The Rams are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as favorites. Cincinnati is 9-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA Rams) - a hot team having won eight or more of their last 10 games, a top level team winning 75% or more of their games this season are 29-5 (85.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Simply put, the Rams shouldn't be more than 2.5-point favorites in this game. There's value with Cincinnati. Bet the Bengals in Super Bowl 56 Sunday.
My Top 15 Prop Bets in Order: (Most can be found at DraftKings)
1. Highest Scoring Half: 2H -120
2. No Score in 1st 6:00 of Game: -130
3. Team to Call 1st Timeout: Rams -140
4. Bengals Longest Punt O 52.5 Yards: -125
5. Team with the Longest Gross Punt: Bengals -115
6. Joe Mixon O 3.5 Receptions: -145
7. Joe Mixon O 26.5 Receiving Yards: -105
8. Will Rams Convert a 4th down: No +135
9. Cam Akers U 63.5 Rushing Yards: -110
10. Joe Mixon U 60.5 Rushing Yards: -115
11. Matthew Stafford U 5.5 Rushing Yards: -120
12. Cooper Kupp Longest Reception O 28.5 Yards: -145
13. 1st play of game: Pass +110
14. Rams U 3.5 Sacks: +105
15. Sony Michel O 18.5 Rushing Yards: -115
|01-30-22||49ers +3.5 v. Rams||Top||17-20||Win||100||138 h 27 m||Show|
25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers +3.5
The San Francisco 49ers are one of the most underrated playoff teams in the history of the NFL. Their stats are elite, they are a lot healthier going into the playoffs than they were in the first half of the season. They were a nightmare matchup for the Cowboys and Packers, and they are a nightmare matchup for the Rams as well. They are also 9-2 SU in their last 11 games overall, outgained both opponents they lost to, and have outgained nine of their last 11 opponents during this streak.
The 49ers already have playoff experience because their Week 18 game was a playoff game as they had to win to get into the postseason. After trailing 17-0 in the first half, the 49ers stormed back and beat the Rams 27-24 (OT). They trailed by 7 with under two minutes remaining and no timeouts, and drove the field to tie it and force OT. They outgained the Rams by 184 yards and deserved to win.
They came into the playoffs with a ton of confidence and it carried over into their 23-17 upset win at Dallas as 3-point dogs in which they were in control of the game the entire way. They went on the road again and trailing 10-3 late in the 4th quarter, got a blocked punt return TD to tie the game, eventually beating the Packers on a game-winning field goal at the gun. Holding the Cowboys to 17 points and the Packers to 10 points is no small feat and shows how good this defense is playing right now.
Yards per play is arguably the most important stat in the NFL, and the 49ers are elite on both offense and defense. Indeed, the 49ers rank 1st in the NFL at 6.1 yards per play on offense and 6th in the NFL at 5.1 yards per play allowed on defense. They are +1.0 yards per play, which is the second-best mark in the entire league behind the Buffalo Bills (+1.1 YPP). They are also 4th in defensive success rate against the run and 4th in defensive success rate against the pass.
The 49ers have really gotten their running game going in recent weeks, rushing for at least 100 yards in six of their last seven games. And with an elite defense and running game, we've seen before that teams can make deep runs in the playoffs. The 49ers feel like they are playing with house money with the way they have beaten the Rams, Cowboys and Packers in three straight tight, one-score games. They feel like they can win in any situation now, and getting 3.5 points with them here is a great value.
The 49ers simply own the Rams. They have gone 6-0 SU in the last six meetings with five outright wins as underdogs. Their defense is a nightmare matchup for the Rams as they have held them to 311 or fewer yards in five of those six meetings, including 265 and 278 in their two meetings this season. They can get pressure by rushing only four, and Matthew Stafford has been great against the blitz, which is why he dissected both the Cardinals and Rams, two blitz-heavy teams. He won't have that luxury against the 49ers, who can get pressure with four with their dominant defensive line.
The 49ers have proven they can run on the Rams as they have rushed for at least 107 yards in nine of their last 10 meetings. That allows them to control the ball and keep the Rams off the field. Jimmy G is one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL at throwing the ball over the middle, and the Rams are one of the worst defenses in the NFL at defending passes over the middle. That's another reason this is a nightmare matchup for Los Angeles.
The Rams will have zero home-field advantage in this game, which is why this line shouldn't be 3.5. It should be closer to PK. You could hear the 49ers fans over the Rams fans in that Week 18 game, and this is a short trip for 49ers fans again to Los Angeles. They will make the trip, and this will be more of a 50-50 crowd than this line indicates. I also love the fact that the 49ers have an extra day to get healthy and prepare for the Rams after playing on Saturday, while the Rams played on Sunday. San Francisco needs this extra time playing in its 4th consecutive road game, and the short travel doesn't really make this a road game.
Don't buy into the hype that it's tough to beat a team three times in the same season. Teams that are 2-0 in the regular season against an opponent have gone 14-7 SU in the playoffs when facing them for a 3rd time. The 49ers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven January games. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. The 49ers are 8-3 SU in road games this season and have played their best football on the highway. Their run continues as they just seem to be a team of destiny this season. Bet the 49ers Sunday.
|01-30-22||Bengals v. Chiefs OVER 54||Top||27-24||Loss||-111||100 h 24 m||Show|
20* Bengals/Chiefs AFC No-Brainer on OVER 54
The Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals meet in the AFC Championship in a rematch from a 34-31 thriller back on January 2nd. The Bengals had 475 yards while the Chiefs had 414 yards in an absolute shootout that saw 65 combined points. It should be more of the same here in the rematch as we'll side with the OVER 54. The weather report for Kansas City is great for this time of year with sunny skies, temps in the 40's and less than 5 MPH winds. That will help us cash this OVER as well.
Joe Burrow has this Cincinnati offense humming. He has led them to 30.0 points per game in his last four starts while throwing for 1,563 yards and a 10-to-1 TD/INT ratio. I expect the Bengals to be playing from behind and Burrow to have to try to keep them in it, which he is more than capable of doing.
He'll be up against a Kansas City defense that was hit hard by injuries in the secondary against the Bills and could be missing a couple key players. This is an overrated KC defense as it is ranking 28th in the NFL in allowing 5.8 yards per play. Burrow threw for 446 yards and four touchdowns in that first meeting.
The Chiefs are humming on offense right now and are as healthy as they have been all season on this side of the ball. They are scoring 37.3 points per game in their last seven games while winning six of those with their lone loss coming 31-34 at Cincinnati. The Bengals have some key injuries along their front seven defensively that will make it even more difficult for them to tame this Kansas City offense.
The OVER is 7-0 in Chiefs last seven games overall. The OVER is 8-1 in Chiefs last nine January games. The OVER is 7-0 in Chiefs last seven vs. AFC opponents. Kansas City holds nothing back offensively in the playoffs when games matter most, making them even more potent than during the regular season. Burrow is more than capable of matching Mahomes score for score to help us cash this OVER. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|01-23-22||Bills v. Chiefs OVER 54||Top||36-42||Win||100||92 h 2 m||Show|
20* Bills/Chiefs AFC No-Brainer on OVER 54
Two of the best offenses in the NFL square off Sunday when the Buffalo Bills visit the Kansas City Chiefs. The Bills are putting up 29.4 points per game while the Chiefs are averaging 29.0 points per game this season. Both offenses have been hitting on all cylinders here down the stretch with even better numbers.
Indeed, the Chiefs are scoring 36.5 points per game in their last six games. The Bills are putting up 33.4 points per game in their last five games and just hung 47 on a very good New England defense. Both teams will get their points, and which ever team is trailing is more than capable of catching up with a quick-strike offense.
The Bills do have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but they haven't faced many good offenses especially here down the stretch. Their last five games have come against the Panthers, Patriots (twice), Falcons and Jets. In the game prior they gave up 33 points and 488 total yards in a 33-27 loss to the Bucs. Andy Reid and company can figure out their defense. After all, Patrick Mahomes has averaged 32.2 points per game as a starter in the playoffs throughout his career.
The Bills will get their points against a soft Kansas City defense that ranks 28th in allowing 5.8 yards per play this season. This is one of the most overrated defenses in the NFL. The Bills shredded them in their first meeting this season in a 38-20 win for 58 combined points. The Chiefs were held to 20 because they committed four turnovers, which won't happen again. The previous meeting in the AFC Championship last year saw 62 combined points as well. The books have set this number too low at 54 here.
The forecast looks great for a January game in Kansas City. Indeed, temperatures will be in the 40's with less than 5 MPH winds and zero chance of precipitation. The OVER is 8-0 in Bills last eight games as underdogs. The OVER is 6-0 in Chiefs last six games overall. The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Kansas City. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|01-22-22||49ers +6 v. Packers||13-10||Win||100||70 h 47 m||Show|
15* 49ers/Packers FOX Saturday Night BAILOUT on San Francisco +6
The San Francisco 49ers are one of the most underrated playoff teams in the history of the NFL. Their stats are elite, they are a lot healthier going into the playoffs than they were in the first half of the season, and they are a nightmare matchup for the Green Bay Packers just as they were against the Dallas Cowboys. They are also 8-2 SU in their last 10 games overall, outgained both opponents they lost to, and have outgained nine of their last 10 opponents during this streak.
The 49ers already have playoff experience because their Week 18 game was a playoff game as they had to win to get into the postseason. After trailing 17-0 in the first half, the 49ers stormed back and beat the Rams 27-24 (OT). They trailed by 7 with under two minutes remaining and no timeouts, and drove the field to tie it and force OT. They outgained the Rams by 184 yards and deserved to win. They came into the playoffs with a ton of confidence and it carried over into their 23-17 upset win at Dallas as 3-point dogs in which they were in control of the game the entire way.
Yards per play is arguably the most important stat in the NFL, and the 49ers are elite on both offense and defense. Indeed, the 49ers rank 1st in the NFL at 6.1 yards per play on offense and 6th in the NFL at 5.1 yards per play allowed on defense. They are +1.0 yards per play, which is the second-best mark in the entire league behind the Buffalo Bills (+1.1 YPP). They are also 4th in defensive success rate against the run and 4th in defensive success rate against the pass.
The 49ers have really gotten their running game going in recent weeks, rushing for at least 100 yards in five of their last six games. That rushing attack consistently gives the Packers fits in the playoffs, which is a big reason Aaron Rodgers is 0-3 all-time against the 49ers in the postseason. And the Packers rank 30th in defensive success rate against the run, making this a nightmare matchup for them. Green Bay is also 31st in the NFL in allowing 4.7 yards per carry.
The 49ers can take the same game plan they had against the Cowboys, which is control the game with their running game and play keep away from a potent Dallas defense. And holding the Cowboys to just 17 points is no small feat as Dallas was the highest-scoring team in the NFL this season. This defense can hold Aaron Rodgers and company in check as well, while the offense can control the ball with their running game and timely passes from Jimmy G.
Injuries to Jimmy Garoppolo, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner are a big reason this line is as high as it is. But Jimmy G just said Wednesday he is good to go, the 49ers certainly expect to have Bosa available, and Warner was seen jumping around on the sidelines late in that Dallas game so he will probably be a go as well. I think as the injury report looks better for the 49ers late in the week, this line will drop as +6 is not the right line.
These teams are pretty evenly matched and the Packers should be closer to a 3-point favorite given the bye week and the home-field advantage. Consider the 49ers were 3-point home favorites in their first meeting this season, so this is a 9-point adjustment and clearly shows there's value on the road dog.
The 49ers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight January games. San Francisco is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog. Everyone is making too big a deal of the Packers playing at home at Lambeau Field in the cold. But the 49ers are actually built for cold outdoor games with the better running game and defense than the Packers. They have been a much better bet on the road than they have been at home in recent years, and they just went on the road and beat the Rams and Cowboys both. They are getting disrespected again here and will continue playing with that chip on their shoulder, making them dangerous road warriors. Roll with the 49ers Saturday.
|01-22-22||Bengals v. Titans OVER 47||Top||19-16||Loss||-107||66 h 3 m||Show|
25* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bengals/Titans OVER 47
It's going to be pretty perfect scoring conditions in Nashville for the month of January Saturday. Temperatures will be in the mid-30's with less than 5 MPH winds. These are two of the better offenses in the NFL, and both defenses are susceptible to the opposing offense's strengths.
Joe Burrow has this Cincinnati offense humming. He has led their offense to 33.7 points per game in his last three starts while throwing for 1,215 yards with a 10-to-0 TD/INT ratio. The Bengals should be able to pass all over a Tennessee defense that is stout against the run, but ranks 25th against the pass in allowing 245.2 yards per game. They gave up 306 passing yards to the 49ers and 289 more to the Texans in two of their last three games down the stretch.
The Titans are a dangerous offense when they have Derrick Henry, AJ Brown and Julio Jones all healthy. Well, they haven't been healthy together for much of the season. But they are entering the playoffs as Henry is expected to make his return. And the Titans should be able to run all over a Cincinnati defense that ranks 17th in allowing 4.4 yards per carry.
But this Cincinnati defense just got even thinner and lost their best run stuffer in DT Larry Ogunjobi to a season-ending injury in the win over the Raiders last week. They will also be without DT Mike Daniels, and they could be without DE Trey Hendrickson and DT Josh Tupou, who are both questionable. The Titans should be able to run the football at will against this banged-up front seven, and that will set up big plays off play-action to Brown and Jones.
Tennessee is 13-2 OVER in its last 15 games after winning three of its last four games. The Titans are 6-0 OVER in their last six games after leading their previous game by 14 points or more at halftime. The OVER is 5-0 in Bengals last five games after allowing more than 350 yards in their previous game. The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Tennessee. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|01-17-22||Cardinals v. Rams -4||11-34||Win||100||98 h 1 m||Show|
15* Cardinals/Rams ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -4
The Los Angeles Rams simply own the Arizona Cardinals, and Sean McVay owns Kliff Kingsbury. The Rams are 9-1 SU & 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Cardinals with all nine wins coming by 7 points or more. The one loss came this season when the Rams were coming off a huge win over the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs the previous week and were in a letdown spot early in the season.
That was back when Arizona was playing well. The Cardinals have fallen flat on their faces since, and it has been yet another late-season collapse under Kingsbury. He has been knowing for this dating back to his time at Texas Tech, and as you can tell he is one of my least favorite head coaches in the NFL.
The Cardinals are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five gams overall. That includs an upset loss to Seattle as a 5.5-point home favorite, an upset loss to a short-handed Colts team as a 3-point favorite, an upset loss at Detroit by 18 as 13-point favorites and an upset home loss to the Rams by 7 as 3-point favorites. The Rams made the proper adjustments in that 2nd meeting in a 30-23 win, and I trust McVay to have the right game plan to beat Arizona again.
It's not all Kingsbury's fault, though. Injuries have played a big factor as they have been without DeAndre Hopkins and JJ Watt. The defense has really taken a hit without Watt, and the offense is not close to how explosive it was when Hopkins was healthy. Both James Conner and Chase Edmunds are banged up going into the playoffs, as is WR Rondale Moore with two of those three questionable.
The Rams have finished the season strong by going 5-1 SU in their final six games. They won four of those five games by 7 points or more. The lone loss came in OT to the 49ers in Week 18, which was predictable as there was a lot more at stake for the 49ers than there was for the Rams, and the 49ers are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL. A big reason the Rams are playing so well down the stretch is because they are one of the healthiest teams in these playoffs, unlike Arizona.
Yards per play is one of the most important stats in predicting NFL games. The Rams are elite in this aspect, ranking 4th at 6.0 yards per play on offense and 10th at 5.2 yards per play allowed on defense. They are outgaining teams by 0.8 yards per play, which is one of the best marks in the league. The Cardinals are 18th at 5.4 yards per play allowed on defense and 15th at 5.6 yards per play on offense, only outgaining teams by 0.2 yards per play.
The Rams don't always have the biggest home-field advantage in the regular season, but it will be a much bigger advantage in these playoffs. Los Angeles is 10-2 ATS off a division game over the last two seasons. Kingsbury is 2-9 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season as the coach of Arizona. Arizona is 1-8 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 350 or more yards per game in the 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons. Los Angeles is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 games following a loss. The Rams are 28-13-1 ATS in their last 42 vs. NFC opponents. Roll with the Rams Monday.
|01-16-22||Steelers v. Chiefs -12.5||21-42||Win||100||74 h 2 m||Show|
15* Steelers/Chiefs NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Kansas City -12.5
The Pittsburgh Steelers are gassed. They have played essentially six straight playoffs games. They beat the Ravens by 1, lost by 8 at the Vikings after trailing 23-0 at halftime, beat the Titans by 6 after trailing 10-0 at halftime, lost 10-36 at Kansas City after trailing 36-3, beat the Browns 26-14 on Monday Night Football and beat the Ravens 16-13 in OT last week.
Those wins over the Titans, Browns and Ravens all come with asterisks and they barely won all three. The Titans were missing AJ Brown and Julio Jones, the Browns had just been eliminated from playoff contention and it was Big Ben's final home game, and the Ravens were ravaged by injuries and playing with a backup QB. The Steelers are one of the worst playoff teams in recent memory. Give them credit for winning these games, but they're not very good. That's indicated by the fact that they have been outgained in seven of their last eight games overall.
Of course, the one blowout loss during this stretch came in that 10-36 road loss to the Chiefs. And keep in mind the Chiefs didn't have Travis Kelce plus Tyreke Hill was limited due to injury and only had two receptions for 19 yards. Now Kelce and Hill are both back healthy and this is going to be another blowout.
We saw the Chiefs crush the Raiders 41-14 on the road and come back home and beat the Raiders 48-9. Sometimes, it's just a bad matchup for the opponent like it is for the Raiders. And this is a terrible matchup for the Steelers. Big Ben is only good at checking the ball down with his weak arm and cannot match Patrick Mahomes score for score. In fact, Big Ben is averaging just 5.0 yards per attempt in his last six games.
This Kansas City offense has hit its stride down the stretch en route to going 9-1 SU in its last 10 games overall with its only loss coming at Cincinnati after blowing a double-digit lead. Unlike Big Ben, the Bengals have the firepower with Joe Burrow and company to match the Chiefs score for score. The Chiefs are averaging 35.4 points per game in their last five games.
This is an underrated Kansas City defense as well that has allowed 17 or fewer points in seven of their 10 games during this 9-1 run. The Chiefs are also the fresher team having played on Saturday last week while the Steelers played on Sunday. Again, the Steelers just don't have much left in the tank after going to overtime with the Ravens and playing so many tight playoff games here down the stretch. The Chiefs are one of the healthiest teams in these playoffs as well.
Double-digit favorites are a perfect 5-0 ATS in the wild card round since 2003. Pittsburgh is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS win. The Steelers are 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 playoff games. The Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games. Pittsburgh is 2-5 ATS in its last seven trips to Kansas City. We get a playoff-motivated Chiefs team here that will dominate from pillar to post this weekend. Take the Chiefs Sunday.
|01-16-22||49ers +3 v. Cowboys||Top||23-17||Win||103||70 h 17 m||Show|
25* NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers +3
The San Francisco 49ers are one of the most underrated wild card teams in the history of the NFL. Their stats are elite, they are a lot healthier going into the playoffs than they were in the first half of the season, and they are a nightmare matchup for the Dallas Cowboys. They are also 7-2 SU in their last nine games overall, outgained both opponents they lost to, and have outgained eight of their last nine opponents during this streak.
The 49ers already have playoff experience because their Week 18 game was a playoff game as they had to win to get into the postseason. After trailing 17-0 in the first half, the 49ers stormed back and beat the Rams 27-24 (OT). They trailed by 7 with under two minutes remaining and no timeouts, and drove the field to tie it and force OT. They outgained the Rams by 184 yards and deserved to win. It's safe to say the 49ers come into the playoffs now with a ton of confidence feeling like they can win under any circumstance.
Yards per play is arguably the most important stat in the NFL, and the 49ers are elite on both offense and defense. Indeed, the 49ers rank 1st in the NFL at 6.1 yards per play on offense and 6th in the NFL at 5.1 yards per play allowed on defense. They are +1.0 yards per play, which is the second-best mark in the entire league behind the Buffalo Bills (+1.1 YPP).
While the 49ers are one of the most underrated playoffs teams, the Cowboys are one of the most overrated. It's a great time to 'sell high' on them after going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Their five wins came against Washington (twice), Philadelphia's backups, a Giants team that has quit and a Saints team ravaged by COVID.
The loss came at home to the Arizona Cardinals 22-25 as 6.5-point favorites in which they were outgained by 98 yards. That's a fellow NFC West team. The Cowboys also have upset home losses to the Broncos as 10.5-point favorites and the Raiders as 7-point favorites in their last 10 games. They just can't be trusted to lay a number at home against a team as good as the 49ers.
The 49ers are expected to get LT Trent Williams back this week and he is one of the best tackles in the game. He helps a 49ers offensive line that ranks 1st in the NFL in run blocking according to pro football focus. Dallas ranks 22nd against the run according to pro football focus. That's why this is a nightmare matchup for the Cowboys. The 49ers will be able to run the ball and control the game. Jimmy G likes to throw the ball over the middle, which is Dallas' weakness against the pass whereas they are great at defending the pass outside the numbers.
Jimmy G will have Kittle and Deebo Samuel open across the middle when he needs to throw. These are two of the most underrated weapons in the game. Kittle has 71 receptions for 910 yards and six touchdowns this season in just 14 games. Samuel has 77 receptions, 1,405 yards and six scores while also rushing for 365 yards and eight touchdowns in 15 games. RB Elijah Mitchell (963 yards, 4.7 YPC, 5 TD) is also healthy now after playing in just 11 games this season.
The 49ers feel like they are free rolling after last week's comeback, while all the pressure is on the Cowboys to try and win a playoff game. Dallas is just 3-10 SU & 3-10 ATS in the playoffs dating back to 1996, including 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS as favorites. The Cowboys are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games with a line of +3 to -3. The 49ers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven January games. San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog. Dallas is 1-7 ATS in its last eight January games. Bet the 49ers Sunday.
|01-15-22||Patriots v. Bills -4||Top||17-47||Win||100||50 h 2 m||Show|
20* Patriots/Bills CBS Saturday Night BAILOUT on Buffalo -4
The Buffalo Bills have elite stats that would suggest they are the best team in the NFL. Yards per play is arguably the most important stat in handicapping NFL teams. Well, the Bills rank 1st in the NFL in allowing just 4.6 yards per play on defense and 14th in averaging 5.7 yards per play on offense. Their +1.1 YPP differential is the best mark in the entire NFL.
The Bills also average 28.4 points per game and 381.7 yards per game on offense and give up just 17.0 points per game and 272.8 yards per game on defense. They are outscoring teams by 11.4 points per game and outgaining them by 108.9 yards per game on the season. Simply put, they are an elite team and should be more than 4-point favorites over the Patriots.
The first meeting in Buffalo this season was fluky as it was hurricane winds and the Patriots won 14-10 while throwing the ball just three times. The Bills took that loss personally and have been a different team since. After losing 27-33 (OT) at Tampa Bay against the healthy defending champs at that time, they have since gone 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games while outgaining all four opponents, including the Jets by 371 yards last game in a misleading 27-10 win.
That also included a 33-21 win at New England in which they got their revenge and outgained the Patriots by 140 yards. Wind wasn't a factor in that game, and the Patriots had to try and do more than just run the ball. Josh Allen threw for 314 yards and three touchdowns in the win. Conversely, Mac Jones went just 14-of-32 passing for 145 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions.
Jones is going to have to try and do more than he did in that first meeting in Buffalo. Yes, it will be cold, but winds will be in single-digits which favors the Bills drastically. The last rookie quarterback to win a playoff game was Russell Wilson clear back in 2012. Jones is still a rookie, and just because he plays for the Patriots doesn't mean he is going to overcome this trend.
The Patriots are reeling having gone 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone win coming against the Jaguars. Jones and the offense are a problem, but is a defense that has now allowed an average of 164 rushing yards per game in their last six games. The Bills have rushed for 161.8 yards per game in their last five games, so they can also run the ball at will on the Patriots if they so choose instead of relying on Allen's arm. They have so many ways to beat the Patriots and are better everywhere.
The Bills are legit Super Bowl contenders with their elite stats and playoff experience gained the last couple seasons. Last year, they made the AFC Championship Game. That's important because home teams coming off a loss in last year's conference championship are 44-8 SU & 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 tries. The Bills are ready to take that next step, and the Patriots aren't good enough to do anything about is, especially with a rookie QB up against a veteran stud like Josh Allen.
Buffalo is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in two consecutive games. The Bills are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after outrushing their last opponent by 75 or more yards. Buffalo is 9-4-2 ATS in its last 15 home games. The Bills are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight vs. AFC East opponents. Take the Bills Saturday.
|01-15-22||Raiders v. Bengals -5||Top||19-26||Win||100||46 h 18 m||Show|
20* Raiders/Bengals NFL Wild Card Opener on Cincinnati -5
The Cincinnati Bengals are rested and ready to pick up where they left off when they went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their three games prior to Week 18 to seal the AFC North title. They beat the Broncos 15-10 as 3-point road underdogs, the Ravens 41-21 as 7.5-point home favorites and the Chiefs 34-31 as 3.5-point home dogs to clinch the title.
The Bengals decided to rest their starters in a 16-21 loss at Cleveland in Week 18. That was a wise move by Zac Taylor, who is among the favorites to win Coach of the Year. Of course, franchise QB Joe Burrow was banged up against the Chiefs and Joe Mixon was out with COVID, so it was an easy decision. But now the Bengals come back fresh and primed for a big effort at home against the Raiders on Saturday.
Conversely, this couldn't be a worse spot for the Raiders. They had to win four straight games to close the season which were all basically playoff games. All four wins came by 4 points or less as they were simply good at winning coin flips. But they needed OT to beat the Chargers on Sunday Night Football, and now the NFL has done them no favors by making them play the first wild card game Saturday afternoon. They are gassed and have nothing left in the tank for the Bengals here.
The Raiders were in a similarly tough situation when they hosted the Bengals earlier this season. They were coming off a Sunday night game against the Chiefs and they had a Thursday game on deck against the Cowboys. Predictably, they fell flat and were crushed 32-13 by the Bengals in Las Vegas. I think they get crushed again here in what is actually an even worse spot for them.
The Raiders have the worst run defense of all the playoff teams according to pro football focus. Joe Mixon rushed for 123 yards and two scores against the Raiders in that first meeting. And you know Joe Burrow is going to have another great game as he has been on fire down the stretch and has that big game experience by leading LSU to a national title. This playoff atmosphere won't phase him.
Burrow threw for 525 yards and four touchdowns without a pick against the Ravens in Week 16 and followed it up with 446 yards and four scores without a pick against the Chiefs in Week 17. He now has an 11-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last four games while completing at least 68% of his passes in all four games. He is probably the single-most underrated quarterback in the NFL right now.
Las Vegas is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games off an upset win as a home underdog over a division opponent. The Raiders are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Bengals Saturday.
|01-09-22||Saints -4 v. Falcons||Top||30-20||Win||100||149 h 14 m||Show|
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Saints -4
The New Orleans Saints are in must-win mode in Week 18 and actually have an excellent chance to make the playoffs. They just have to beat the Falcons and have the 49ers lose on the road to the Rams to get in. The 49ers are a decent-sized underdog to the Rams. But first things first, and that's handling their business against the Falcons.
This is a terrible spot for the Falcons. They were just eliminated from playoff contention with their 29-15 loss at Buffalo last week. There will be a hangover effect here, especially after blowing a 15-14 halftime lead and getting shutout after intermission. Of course they would like to keep the Saints out of the playoffs, but I can't see them being all that motivated to do so.
And the fact of the matter is the Falcons are one of the worst teams in the NFL and not good enough to do anything about it. They are getting outscored by 8.5 points per game on the season. The Falcons have been at their worst at home, going 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS with their only win coming against Tim Boyle and the Lions two weeks ago. They were outgained by the Lions by 84 yards and should have lost that game.
The Saints are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. They have won every game that Taysom Hill has started here down the stretch with their only loss coming to the Dolphins when they were down to their 4th-string QB and missing a ton of players. In fact, the Saints are 8-3 when Jameis Winston or Hill starts this season, and 0-5 in all other games.
The Saints should be able to run on Atlanta with Hill, Kamara and company. The Falcons have now allowed 130 or more rushing yards in three straight games and an average of 175 rushing yards per game in their last three.
New Orleans has one of the best defenses in the NFL and should shut down this suspect Falcons offense. The Saints rank 4th in scoring defense while the Falcons are 27th in scoring offense. The Saints have held their last four opponents to an average of 9.8 points per game.
New Orleans is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play in the second half of the season. The Saints are 37-14 ATS in their last 51 road games overall. New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Atlanta. Bet the Saints Sunday.
|01-09-22||49ers +5.5 v. Rams||Top||27-24||Win||100||149 h 13 m||Show|
20* 49ers/Rams NFC West No-Brainer on San Francisco +5.5
The San Francisco 49ers are in must-win mode this weekend. They need to win to get into the playoffs or have the Saints lose to the Falcons. The Saints are 4-point favorites over the Falcons, so the 49ers don't want to rely on that. They want to handle their business here Sunday and win this game outright against the Los Angeles Rams.
The Rams have a lot less at stake. They just have seeding in the NFC on the line. I can't see them being max motivated here. Plus, the Rams have been fortunate to win their last two games against the Vikings and Ravens as Matthew Stafford has committed six turnovers. He isn't playing well, and he won't have much success against one of the best defenses in the NFL here.
Indeed, the 49ers not only have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but they are 3rd in the NFL in yards per play differential (+0.8 YPP). That is the sign of an elite team and one that is way better than their 9-7 record would indicate. The 49ers are led by a defense that ranks 4th in the NFL at 312.8 yards per game allowed. They are outgaining their opponents by nearly 60 yards per game on the season, which is better than the Rams mark of 40 yards per game.
Simply put, Kyle Shanahan owns his disciple Sean McVay. The 49ers have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with four outright wins as underdogs. That includes their 31-10 home win as 3.5-point underdogs in their first meeting this season. Stafford went 26 of 41 for 243 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in that defeat.
The Rams are 0-6 ATS after having won four or five of their last six games this season. Los Angeles is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games following two or more consecutive wins. The 49ers are 6-0 ATS in thier last six January games. The Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.
Plays on road underdogs or PK (San Francisco) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 37-8 (82.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the 49ers Sunday.
|01-09-22||Bears +3.5 v. Vikings||17-31||Loss||-103||93 h 56 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bears +3.5
The Chicago Bears are quietly playing their best football of the season here down the stretch. They have won two in a row over the Seahawks as 7-point dogs and the Giants 29-3 as 7-point favorites with two different quarterbacks. It hasn't mattered who is under center for them because their defense has been elite.
The Bears have now outgained six of their last eight opponents all by 54 yards or more. The only exceptions were when they were outgained by 92 yards at Green Bay and by 14 yards at Seattle. The Bears have the 5th-ranked unit in total defense at 315.8 yards per game allowed.
Chicago wants revenge from a 9-17 home loss to the Vikings in which they deserved to win on December 20th. They had 370 total yards and held the Vikings to just 193 yards, outgaining them by 177 yards. But they failed time and time again in the red zone. They haven't forgotten, and I like their chances of winning this game outright let alone covering this spread Sunday as they get their revenge.
This is a terrible spot for the Vikings. They were just eliminated from playoff contention with their emphatic 37-10 loss at Green Bay last week. Their defense was shredded for 481 total yards and they were without Kirk Cousins due to COVID. I just can't see them being able to get back up off the mat in time to face the Bears. They won't care about this game nearly as much as they are leading on in the media. The Bears will show up just as they have every week here down the stretch.
Plays against home teams (Minnesota) - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 60-22 (73.2%) ATS since 1983. The Vikings are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. Minnesota is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with the Bears Sunday.
|01-08-22||Cowboys v. Eagles OVER 43||Top||51-26||Win||100||32 h 44 m||Show|
20* Cowboys/Eagles NFC East No-Brainer on OVER 43
The Dallas Cowboys are playing to win this game to try and improve their seeding in the NFC and sharpen up following a home loss to the Cardinals last week. Their offense is mostly healthy and should put up plenty of points on this Philadelphia Eagles defense to get the OVER.
It's uncertain what the Eagles are going to do. The good news is that they have one of the best backup quarterbacks in the NFL in Gardner Minshew if they decide to bench Jalen Hurts. He is a gun slinger and will be trying to win this game no matter what, so the Eagles should be able to do their part on offense as well.
This Dallas defense is going to be missing some key players including Micah Parsons and possibly Trevon Diggs. Those are not only their two best defensive players, but two of the best defensive players in the NFL this season. The Eagles have all kinds of COVID questions and it's going to hurt their defense more than their offense if players cannot go.
Dallas is scoring 31.0 points per game in its last six games overall. Philadelphia has scored at least 20 points in 13 of its last 14 games overall. If the Eagles get to 20 in this game, this should get OVER the total, and I think they will. It will be 28 degrees in Philadelphia Saturday but only 3 MPH winds, so scoring conditions will be just fine.
Dallas beat Philadelphia 41-21 in their first meeting this season for 62 combined points. They also combined for 54 points in their final meeting last season. This total is just way too low Saturday knowing that the Cowboys are playing to try to win, while Philadelphia will be just fine on offense with Minshew if it comes down to it. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|01-03-22||Browns v. Steelers +3.5||Top||14-26||Win||100||48 h 5 m||Show|
20* Browns/Steelers ESPN No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +3.5
Ben Roethlisberger has hinted that this will be his final home game. He would love nothing more than to beat the Cleveland Browns one last time and continue his dominance of them. Big Ben is 25-2-1 all-time against the Browns straight up. And we are getting 3.5 points with him and the Steelers at home here where they can still lose by 3 and cover.
This line doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Cleveland was a 5.5-point closing favorite in the first meeting, losing 15-10 outright to the Steelers at home. Now they are a 3.5-point road favorite and after taking a ton of money already this week as Pittsburgh actually opened the favorite. This despite the Steelers being one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.
Admittedly, the Browns are getting healthier this week and are probably the better team on a neutral. But this line has shifted too much in their direction. Baker Mayfield cannot be trusted as he threw four interceptions against the Packers last week and has been terrible all season as he has battled through injury. I trust Big Ben more, and I trust that it will be a raucous atmosphere for his final home game and his players will have his back as they are fighting for their playoff lives right now.
There's actually a chance the Browns will be eliminated from division contention even before they play this game, which would take the wind out of their sails. They sit at 7-8 this season and in last place in the division. I think there's a good chance Cincinnati (8-7) or Baltimore (8-7) pull the upset this week in their respective games. And Pittsburgh is going to be alive for the division title no matter what happens on Sunday before this game is played.
The Browns haven't won any of their last six games by more than 3 points. Cleveland is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a road loss. The Browns are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 division games. Pittsburgh is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 games as an underdog. The Steelers are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games as home underdogs. Pittsburgh is 19-0 SU in its last 19 Monday Night Football home games with its last loss in 1991! Bet the Steelers Monday.
Note: The Browns did get eliminated from playoff contention on Sunday which is why this line has moved from Cleveland -3.5 to +2.5. I would still take the Steelers as a 15* play at -2.5. Glad we got in early at +3.5 and beat this line move!
|01-02-22||Lions +7 v. Seahawks||Top||29-51||Loss||-101||99 h 43 m||Show|
20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Lions +7
I faded the Seahawks with success last week as the Bears won outright as 7-point underdogs at Seattle. I'm fading the Seahawks again for a number of the same reasons this week. They are 5-10 this season and will finish with a losing record for the first time with Russell Wilson. Seattle won't be going to the playoffs, and they are simply playing out the string now with zero motivation. They can't be laying 7 points to the Detroit Lions given their lack of motivation.
The Seahawks are one of the worst teams in the NFL as it is. They rank 31st in total defense at 385.5 yards per game allowed. They are 29th in total offense at 305.2 yards per game. They are getting outgained by over 80 yards per game, which is one of the worst marks in the NFL this season.
The Lions continue to fight every week. They were without Jared Goff last week and covered in a 16-20 road loss to the Atlanta Falcons as 7-point dogs. They actually outgained the Falcons by 84 yards and should have won. There was a chance they would get Goff back this week, but even without him they'll be able to run the football as they have a healthy De'Andre Swift back at RB.
The Lions are much better than their 2-12-1 record and continue to show up every week for Dan Campbell. They have quietly gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. They have only lost once by more than 4 points during this run.
The Lions have rushed for at least 100 yards in six of their last seven games. They have one of the best offensive lines and rushing attacks in the NFL. You can definitely run on the Seahawks as they give up 115 rushing yards per game. Detroit's defense is good enough to keep them in this game as well. They have allowed 20 or fewer points in five of their last seven games overall.
Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Seattle) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against an opponent after two consecutive games where they committed one or fewer turnovers are 44-15 (74.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Lions will show up this week, and I don't think the same can be said for the Seahawks. Bet the Lions Sunday.
|01-02-22||Bucs v. Jets OVER 45.5||28-24||Win||100||17 h 55 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bucs/Jets OVER 45.5
The Tampa Bay Bucs should get Mike Evans back this week. They have been scoring at will regardless of who has been in the lineup. The Bucs have scored 30 or more points in five of their last six games overall. They should get to 30 here to help pave the way for us cashing this OVER.
The Jets have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They rank 32nd in scoring defense at 29.9 points per game and 32nd in total defense at 391.3 yards per game. They are 31st against the run at 141.3 yards per game and 28th against the pass at 250.0 yards per game. The Bucs are going to be able to name their number on the Jets.
New York has shown some life on offense in recent weeks in scoring 26 points against the Jaguars and 24 against the Dolphins. They should do their part to get this OVER against a Tampa Bay defense that will be missing several key players this week. They have three cornerbacks either questionable or doubtful. They will for sure be without two of their best pass rushers in Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul as well.
Bruce Arians is 8-1 OVER after allowing 14 points or less last game as the coach of Tampa Bay. Arians is 16-4 OVER in road games following two or more consecutive unders in all games as a head coach. Tampa Bay is 6-0 OVER in its last six games following a double-digit road win. The OVER is 20-5-1 in Bucs last 26 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. The OVER is 9-3 in Jets last 12 games overall. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|01-02-22||Eagles -4.5 v. Washington Football Team||20-16||Loss||-106||17 h 55 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Eagles -4.5
The Philadelphia Eagles are one of the hottest teams in the NFL. They have gone 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games overall to get to 8-7 on the season and knocking on the door of making the playoffs. They have a lot to play for right now and that motivation is a big reason I am backing them as short road favorites over Washington this week.
Philadelphia is very close to being on a 6-0 run. Its only loss came when it committed four turnovers against the Giants on the road in a 7-13 loss, losing the turnover battle 4-0. They avenged that loss last week in a 34-10 home win over the Giants. They also beat the Broncos by 17, the Saints by 11, the Jets by 15 and Washington by 10 during this run so all five wins have been by double-digits.
Philadelphia was a 10-point home favortie against Washington two weeks ago in that 27-17 win that was even more dominant than the final score showed. They racked up 519 total yards on Washington and outgained them by 282 yards. They should be more than 4.5-point favorites in the rematch, a 5.5-point adjustment down.
Washington has zero home-field advantage right now because they are 6-9 on the season and eliminated from playoff contention. They had the wind knocked out of their sails by the Eagles two weeks ago, and that showed last week as they came back and got blown out 56-14 by the Cowboys. They gave up 505 more yards to the Cowboys and were outgained by 240 yards. They were seen fighting on the sidelines. This team just wants the season to be over right now.
While the Eagles are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now, the Football Team has a ton of injuries and COVID issues which is a big reason they have struggled so badly of late. They will be without RB Antonio Gibson among several others this week against the Eagles. I just don't see them showing up this week, and even if they do they aren't good enough to hang with Philadelphia.
Washington is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games following a loss by 10 points or more. The Football Team is 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games following a loss. The Eagles are 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.
Plays on favorites (Philadelphia) - an average defensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against a bad defensive team (27 PPG or more), after scoring 30 points or more last game are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Eagles Sunday.
|01-02-22||Chiefs v. Bengals OVER 50.5||Top||31-34||Win||100||17 h 54 m||Show|
20* Chiefs/Bengals AFC No-Brainer on OVER 50.5
Expect a shootout between two of the best offenses in the NFL that boast two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow. These are two of the healthiest offenses in the NFL right now, which is why they are both humming.
Both teams have all of their key playmakers on offense as Travis Kelce returns for the Chiefs this week. Kansas City has now scored 39.3 points per game in its last three games as it has entered playoff mode trying to get that all-important top seed in the AFC and a first-round bye. They won't be holding anything back on offense this week.
Burrow is coming off a franchise-record 525 passing yards against the Baltimore Ravens last week in leading the Bengals to a 41-21 victory. He is going to have to be on top of his game to try and match Mahomes and company score for score, and I think he'll be up to the test in a shootout.
The Chiefs have benefited from playing a lot of terrible offenses lately. The one exception was the Chargers, who had 28 points and 428 total yards against them even though they came with zero points three times inside the Kansas City 5-yard line. The Bengals have a ton of injuries on defense right now that are going to make them soft as butter and give them almost zero chance to slow down the Chiefs.
The OVER is 5-1 in Chiefs last six January games. The OVER is 4-1 in Chiefs last five vs. AFC opponents. The OVER is 7-0 in Bengals last seven January games. The OVER is 4-1 in Bengals last five home games. The OVER is 5-0 in Bengals last five games following a win. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-27-21||Dolphins -2.5 v. Saints||Top||20-3||Win||100||55 h 49 m||Show|
20* Dolphins/Saints ESPN No-Brainer on Miami -2.5
The New Orleans Saints have been hit hard by COVID this week. They will be without both Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian at quarterback after they were already without Jameis Winston. Now they will be starting 4th-stringer Ian Book, and they just signed Blake Bortles on Friday as insurance.
Sean Payton was allowed to return to the team on Friday. But three other coaches who tested positive aren't expected to coach Monday. On Saturday, DE Carl Granderson became the 16th player to test positive for COVID this week and the 19th person on the roster or the coaching staff to test positive since Tuesday.
The Saints have two available DE's on the active roster for Monday's game; Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport, and Davenport is questionable with shoulder and knee injuries. S Malcolm Jenkins, LB Demario Davis, T Ryan Ramczyk, LB Kaden Elliss, G James Carpenter, T Jordan Mills, S Jeff Heath, DT Christian Ringo, TE's Adam Trautman and Juwan Johnson, special teams ace J.R> Gray and RB Dwayne Washington are the others outside the quarterbacks.
Don't look now but the Miami Dolphins are back to .500 and in position to make the playoffs after their 1-7 start. They have gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Their defense is playing lights out during this stretch. They are giving up just 11.5 points per game during this six-game winning streak. It won't get any easier for a Saints offense that is averaging just 15.5 points per game in their last four games with a 4th-stringer at quarterback this week.
While the Saints are a mash unit right now, the Dolphins are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL. And their offense gets a boost this week with the return of both WR Jaylen Waddle and RB Phillip Lindsay from the COVID list. Waddle is crucial as he has quickly become Tua's favorite target. He has 86 receptions for 849 yards and four touchdowns this season. Tua is quietly playing very well with a 70% completion percentage this season.
Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after covering the spread in three of its last four games. New Orleans is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win. The Saints are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS at home this season. And this is definitely a potential letdown spot for the Saints off their big upset win over the Tampa Bay Bucs last week. That win was aided by a ton of injuries and attrition throughout the game to Tampa's offense. Bet the Dolphins Monday.
|12-26-21||Washington Football Team +10 v. Cowboys||Top||14-56||Loss||-103||31 h 54 m||Show|
20* Washington/Cowboys NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Washington +10
I love the spot for the Washington Football Team tonight. They will be out for revenge from a 20-27 home loss to the Dallas Cowboys two weeks ago. So this will be their 2nd meeting in 3 weeks. And Washington lost QB Taylor Heineke in that game to injury. He missed last week, but he will be back this week to give the offense a boost against the Cowboys.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Cowboys after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. But they easily could have lost all three of those games. They have benefited from being +8 in turnovers in those three games. They beat the Saints 27-17 despite getting outgained by 28 yards. Washington was driving to tie the game late in their 27-20 loss. And the Cowboys only outgained the Giants by 26 yards in their 21-6 win. They got to face backup quarterbacks in all three victories.
This Dallas offense just can't be trusted to lay this big of a number. And their defense isn't as good as the points per game allowed would indicate. The Cowboys rank 21st in total defense at 22nd against the pass this season. They have simply benefited from being ball hawks, ranking 1st with 31 takeaways. That is pretty unsustainable.
Washington is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog. Washington is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 trips to Dallas. The underdog is 29-14 ATS in the last 43 meetings. I know the Football Team will show up today to try and beat their hated rivals in the Cowboys. It should be good enough to stay within this inflated double-digit spread tonight. Roll with Washington Sunday.
|12-26-21||Bears +6.5 v. Seahawks||Top||25-24||Win||100||95 h 38 m||Show|
20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bears +6.5
The Seattle Seahawks just lost 20-10 on Tuesday to the Los Angeles Rams to fall to 5-9 on the season and assure a losing record. That defeat eliminated them from playoff contention. I think we see them very flat Sunday against the Chicago Bears because of it as they finally won't finish .500 or better with Russell Wilson.
The fact of the matter is the Seahawks aren't the better of these two teams anyway. Chicago is much better than its 4-10 record would indicate. And it's a great time to 'buy low' on the Bears after failing to cover the spread in five straight. But they deserved to cover in almost all of those.
Indeed, the Bears have amazingly outgained five of their last six opponents. They outgained the Steelers by 134 yards in their 27-29 road loss. They outgained the Ravens by 54 yards in their 13-16 home loss. They outgained the Lions by 139 yards in their 16-14 road win. They outgained the Cardinals by 72 yards in their 22-33 home loss. They did get outgained by 92 yards by the Pakcers on the road but held a 6-point halftime lead in that game. And last week they outgained the Vikings by 177 yards in their 9-17 home loss.
At some point, the Bears are going to win the stats and the scoreboard. I think this is the week against the Seahawks. Chicago has the 9th-ranked defense in the NFL giving up just 326.2 yards per game. Seattle ranks 31st in total defense, allowing 390.4 yards per game. The Seahawks are also 30th in total offense at 303.4 yards per game, getting outgained by nearly 90 yards per game on the season. That is the sign of a terrible team.
Chicago is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. Off the loss to the Rams on Tuesday, this is a short week for the Seahawks getting only four days to get ready for the Bears. Nick Foles is not really a downgrade from Justin Fields and could provide this Chicago offense with a spark with his ability to stretch the field. Bet the Bears Sunday.
|12-26-21||Bucs v. Panthers +10||Top||32-6||Loss||-110||24 h 34 m||Show|
20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +10
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Carolina Panthers. They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. But that won't stop them from showing up against the defending Super Bowl champion and division rival Tampa Bay Bucs today. They would love nothing more than to beat the Bucs here Sunday.
The Panthers should be getting Sam Darnold back today which will give the offense an added dimension. They also will have a kicker, which they didn't have against Buffalo after he got hurt in pregame, which ultimately cost them the cover. And their best receiver in DJ Moore has been upgraded to probable today.
This Carolina defense is one of the best in the NFL. They rank 2nd in total defense at 294.4 yards per game. They are also 2nd in passing defense, allowing just 178.8 yards per game. That makes this an excellent matchup for them to be able to slow down Tom Brady and this Tampa Bay passing attack.
This Bucs' offensive attack got a lot less potent in their 9-0 loss to the Saints last week. Injuries hit them hard in that game and they aren't any better this week. The Bucs will now be without their top two receivers in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. They will also be without RB Leonard Fournette. That's over 3,200 yards of offense and 27 combined touchdowns between those three. Not to mention, their defense will be without S Antoine Winfield Jr, LB Lavonte David and DE Jason Pierre-Paul. They also have a couple CB's questionable in the secondary.
Carolina is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games after four or more consecutive overs. The Panthers are 60-37 ATS in their last 97 games following a loss by 10 or more points. The Buccaneers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as road favorites. Take the Panthers Sunday.
|12-25-21||Browns v. Packers -7||22-24||Loss||-110||8 h 14 m||Show|
15* Browns/Packers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Green Bay -7
The Green Bay Packers are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL and it's a big reason they have the best record in the NFC at 11-3 SU & 11-3 ATS this season. And they have been unstoppable at home, going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS while outscoring opponents by 13.7 points per game. You know it's going to be a great atmosphere for this home game against the Cleveland Browns at Lambeau Field on Christmas Day as well.
The Browns are a mess right now. They are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. Their two wins came against the Lions and the Ravens and their backups QB by a combined 5 points. They lost by 38 at New England, by 6 at Baltimore and at home to the lowly Raiders by 2. They are still missing a ton of key players, and I think they are getting too much respect with Baker Mayfield coming back because he has been terrible this season.
Green Bay is 8-0 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 64% or worse this season. This is a short week for the Browns after playing on Monday, so they have just four days to get ready for the Packers. They haven't been practicing much as a team due to all of these COVID problems, so chemistry will continue to be a problem for them. The Packers have been in sync since Week 1. Take the Packers Saturday.
|12-23-21||49ers -3 v. Titans||Top||17-20||Loss||-125||84 h 36 m||Show|
20* 49ers/Titans Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Francisco -3
The San Francisco 49ers are a freight train right now. They are playing as well as almost anyone in the NFL in going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They were supposed to be one of the best teams in the NFL coming into the season but were hurt by injuries in the first half. Now that they've been a lot healthier they are playing up to their potential.
The 49ers made easy work of the Falcons in a 31-13 home victory last week. So they should still have plenty left in the tank for this short week game against Tennessee. They would be bigger favorites in this game if not for the short week and the West Coast team traveling East. But the 49ers have dominated when flying out East in recent seasons.
The Titans were grossly overvalued due to a great start this season behind Derrick Henry. But since Henry went down, the Titans have been awful. They have gone 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. They are broken on offense, scoring 23 or fewer points in five straight games and an average of just 16.4 points per game in their last five.
The Titans have passed for less than 200 yards in five of their last six games because they have also been without both AJ Brown and Julio Jones at times. Brown should be back this week, but Jones suffered a hamstring injury last week and is questionable. They still aren't the same team without Henry, Brown and Jones all healthy and they are only likely to have one of the three.
Tennessee has been relying heavily on running the football offensively even without Henry. But that's not going to work against the 49ers. They have allowed 86 or fewer rushing yards in five of their last six games overall. And the Titans have struggled despite playing five straight bad offensive teams in the Saints, Texans, Jaguars, Steelers and Patriots. The Titans will be without two starters on the offensive line as well in Taylor Lewan and Rodger Saffold.
Now they take a big step up in class here against a 49ers offense that is rolling since getting George Kittle and Deebo Samuel healthy. The 49ers have scored 23 or more points in six straight games and an average of 29.2 points per game. Samuel has seven rushing touchdowns and 1,088 receiving yards on the season. Kittle has 28 receptions for 425 yards and three touchdowns over the last three weeks. Bet the 49ers Thursday.
|12-21-21||Seahawks +7 v. Rams||Top||10-20||Loss||-107||35 h 59 m||Show|
20* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Seattle Seahawks +7
This is already a terrible spot for the Los Angeles Rams. They are coming off an upset road win over the Arizona Cardinals on Monday Night Football. Now they stay within the division to take on a Seattle Seahawks team that is starting to play up to their potential as they try and keep their playoff hopes alive.
Now things have really gotten worse for the Rams. They now have placed 25 players on the COVID list, including CB Jalen Ramsey, WR Odell Beckham Jr., LB Von Miller and four other starters. They will get some guys back that they wouldn't have had if they played Sunday, but they still shouldn't be 7-point favorites in this game.
The Seahawks want revenge from a 26-17 home loss to the Rams in their first meeting this season. Russell Wilson was knocked out of that game early and replaced by Geno Smith. I like their chances for getting revenge and covering at the very least considering they are the much healthier team and playing up to their potential the last two weeks.
Indeed, the Seahawks are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two games. They upset the 49ers 30-23 as 2.5-point home underdogs. They followed it up with a dominant 33-13 win at Houston as 9.5-point favorites behind 453 yards of offense. Russell Wilson is starting to play like his old self as he has gotten healthier, and the Seahawks have rushed for 146 and 193 yards in their last two games, respectively.
Pete Carroll is 49-28 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Seattle. Los Angeles is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following two or more consecutive wins. The Seahawks are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as underdogs. The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as favorites. Bet the Seahawks Tuesday.
|12-21-21||Washington Football Team v. Eagles -6||17-27||Win||100||35 h 59 m||Show|
15* Washington/Eagles NFC East ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia -6
The Philadelphia Eagles are in a great spot this week. They are coming off their bye week and expected to get Jalen Hurts back at quarterback. They should be as healthy as they have been all season and get their dynamic RB duo of Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard back.
The Eagles are really playing well right now in going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with all three victories coming by double-digits. The lone loss was fluky as they were -4 in turnovers against the Giants and only lost by 6 on the road. They clearly should have won that game.
Now they take on a banged-up Washington team that has as bad an injury report as any team in the NFL right now. QB Taylor Heineke and WR Terry McLaurin both left the Dallas game last week with injuries. Both are questionable to return this week.
They have 10 players in COVID protocol including DL Matt Ionnidis, backup QB Kyle Allen, CB Kendall Fuller, DL Jonathan Allen and a couple linebackers. They are already without Chase Young and cannot afford to lose all these guys up front. They will get some players back that they wouldn't have had if this game was played on Sunday, but the Eagles were double-digit favorites then. Now we are getting the Eagles as less than a TD favorite here.
This is a tired Washington team that has played five straight games that were decided by 10 points or fewer, including four one-score games in their last four. But they were getting blown out by Dallas last week before a late rally. I don't see them rallying against the Eagles this week.
The Eagles are ready to make a playoff push as they get three winnable home games plus Washington twice down the stretch. They have rushed for at least 176 yards in six straight games now and should be able to run all over this depleted Washington front seven. The Eagles are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Take the Eagles Tuesday.
|12-20-21||Vikings -5.5 v. Bears||Top||17-9||Win||100||92 h 41 m||Show|
20* Vikings/Bears ESPN No-Brainer on Minnesota -5.5
The Minnesota Vikings are one of the best 6-7 teams in the history of the NFL. They have held at least a 6-point lead in all 13 games this season and are clearly better than their record. But they are still alive for the playoffs, and this is a must-win game for them Monday night in Chicago.
Minnesota got Dalvin Cook back from injury last week and he ran wild on the Steelers in a 36-28 victory last Thursday. The Vikings had 458 total yards and a 29-0 lead on the Steelers, so it was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. Now this is like a mini-bye week for the Vikings, so they should be fresh and ready to go with three extra days' rest. They are also one of the healthier teams in the NFL.
The same cannot be said for the Bears, who have 12 players on the COVID list and three coordinators now. Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, defensive coordinator Sean Desai and special teams coordinator Chris Tabor were all working remotely Thursday. They are likely to be without WR Allen Robinson and DEB Eddie Jackson among many other key players.
This is a bad spot for the Bears as it is even without the COVID news. At 4-9 now, they have no chance of making the playoffs. They just blew a 27-21 halftime lead against the Packers and were outscored 24-3 after intermission in a 45-30 loss. They were fortunate to even be in that game thanks to several big special teams plays. They won't be so fortunate against this motivated Vikings team to keep this one close for long.
Chicago is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games vs. NFC opponents. The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs. Chicago is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog. Take the Vikings Monday.
|12-19-21||Falcons +9 v. 49ers||Top||13-31||Loss||-110||7 h 17 m||Show|
20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Falcons +9
The San Francisco 49ers were fortunate to win last week at Cincinnati. The Bengals gave that game away by muffing two punts in their own territory. The 49ers recovered all four fumbles in the game. And they still needed overtime to beat the Bengals, 26-23.
It's a good time to 'sell high' on the 49ers even though I like this team. They are now laying way too many points at home against the Atlanta Falcons, who are still in playoff contention at 6-7 this season. And while the 49ers have struggled at home in recent years, the Falcons have been a great bet on the road.
Indeed, the Falcons are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS away from home this season. They have upset wins over the Giants, Dolphins, Saints and Panthers. And they have a great path to the playoffs if they can pull another upset here because they have Detroit on deck next week.
The 49ers are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games. San Francisco is 16-34-1 ATS in its last 51 games as a home favorite. The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet the Falcons Sunday.
|12-19-21||Titans v. Steelers +103||13-19||Win||103||60 h 25 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Pittsburgh Steelers ML +103
The Pittsburgh Steelers sit at 6-6-1 and are playing for their playoff lives this week. Look for a big effort from them. I always like backing Mike Tomlin off a loss and as an underdog. And I think the wrong team is favored in this game Sunday.
The Steelers are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now and are expected to have T.J. Watt this week, one of the best defensive players in the NFL. The same cannot be said for the Titans, who have 20 players out and another eight questionable.
Tennessee's offense has hit the skids since losing both Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown to injury, their two best players. In their last five games, the Titans managed just 194 yards against the Rams, 264 yards against the Saints, 13 points in an upset loss to the Texans as 10.5-point favorites, 13 points against New England and just 263 yards against Jacksonville.
The Steelers have managed 300 or more yards in five straight games offensively. They have by far the better offense right now, and I rank these teams pretty even defensively. Plus you have to give the Steelers a few points for home-field advantage and simply needing the game more. It all adds up to the wrong team being favored.
Pittsburgh is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games after allowing 35 points or more. Tennessee is 3-17 ATS in its last 20 games vs. teams who force one or fewer turnovers per game. The Titans are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Take the Steelers on the Money Line Sunday.
|12-19-21||Cardinals v. Lions +13||12-30||Win||100||60 h 25 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Lions +13
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Detroit Lions this week. They have not quit and continue to get the money for backers. And their 38-10 loss to Denver was very misleading last week. They were only outgained by 42 yards despite missing a ton of players due to COVID, but they had two turnovers in the red zone.
Now the Lions will get back several players they were missing last week. And they will relish this opportunity to try and beat the team with the best record in the NFC in the Arizona Cardinals. The Lions have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall to improve to 8-5 ATS this season. So despite their 1-11-1 SU record, they continue fighting for bettors' money.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Cardinals, who are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS on the road this season with all seven wins by double-digits. Odds are they can't keep this streak going now that the books have over-adjusted for it this week. The Cardinals will be without their best receiver in De'Andre Hopkins, who suffered a possible season-ending injury last week.
They also have their top two running backs in James Conner and Chase Edmonds questionable. Not to mention, this is a terrible spot for the Cardinals. They are on a short week after losing 30-23 at home tot he Rams on Monday Night Football. And they have a big game on deck against the Colts on Saturday. They will be just looking to get in and get out with a win against the Lions with zero incentive to run up the score.
Detroit is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 games following a loss by 28 points or more. Arizona is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games. vs. poor pass defenses that allow 7.5 or more yards per attempt in the 2nd half of the season. The Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss. Detroit is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after scoring less than 15 points in its previous game. The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. The home team is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings. The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Detroit. Roll with the Lions Sunday.
|12-18-21||Patriots v. Colts -130||Top||17-27||Win||100||116 h 28 m||Show|
25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Indianapolis Colts ML -130
The Indianapolis Colts might be the most underrated team in the NFL right now. They are just 7-6 but much better than that record. They are outscoring their opponents by nearly 7 points per game on the season with a balanced offense and a very good defense that allows just 21.8 points per game.
The Colts opened 0-3 amid injuries and poor play. They have since gone 7-3 SU in their last 10 games overall and are very close to being on a 10-game winning streak. They blew a 19-point lead and lost in OT to the Ravens, lost in OT at home to the Titans after another late blown lead, and blew a 14-point lead to the Bucs in a last-second loss. The fact that they competed with those three teams and took them all to the wire tells all you need to know about the Colts' potential.
The Patriots are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall. Now it's time to 'sell high' on the Patriots this week. They aren't nearly as good as their 9-4 record would indicate. And the bye actually came at a bad time for them because they had all the momentum, stopping the Bills twice in the Red Zone to preserve a 14-10 victory last time out. They have feasted on the 5th-easiest schedule in the NFL this season. They come back down to reality this week against the Colts, who beat the Bills 41-15 on the road a couple weeks ago.
Indianapolis is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games vs. good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt. The Colts are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games off a division game. Indianapolis is 24-7-1 ATS in its last 32 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in its previous game. The Colts are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning record. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet the Colts on the Money Line Saturday.
|12-16-21||Chiefs v. Chargers OVER 51.5||Top||34-28||Win||100||52 h 1 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Chiefs/Chargers OVER 51.5
The Los Angeles Chargers should get back Keenan Allen this week from COVID protocol. Their already potent offense should be even stronger as it is nearly at full strength. They will be up against a Kansas City Chiefs defense that will be without their best player in Chris Jones due to COVID.
"The only guy you can really compare him to is probably Aaron Donald," Tyrann Mathieu said. "You talk about inside dominance. It's going to be a big challenge for us to replace him."
Of course, the way the Chiefs are going offensively right now they will be able to match the Chargers score for score. They just hung 48 points on the Raiders last week after scoring 41 on them in their first meeting a couple weeks ago. This Kansas City offense is pretty much at full strength now and ready for a big finish.
These are two of the worst teams in the NFL at stopping the run. The Chargers rank 29th at 4.7 yards per carry allowed, while the Chiefs are 26th at 4.6 yards per carry. The Chiefs are also 31st allowing 5.9 yards per play on defense. Only the Jets have been worse than them in this category.
This has been an OVER series. Three of the last four meetings have seen 52 or more combined points. That includes the 30-24 upset win by the Chargers as 7-point road underdogs in their first meeting this season. The Chiefs should have won that game as they were -4 in turnovers, had 33 first downs and 437 total yards. They should have scored more than 24 points. Both offenses should top 24 in this one. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
|12-13-21||Rams +2.5 v. Cardinals||Top||30-23||Win||100||96 h 20 m||Show|
20* Rams/Cardinals ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles +2.5
It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Rams. They lost three straight and failed to cover five in a row prior to their 37-7 blowout victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. They got right and gained some confidence, and now they want revenge from a misleading 20-37 home loss to the Cardinals in their first meeting this season.
It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Cardinals, who are coming off a misleading 33-22 win against the Bears last week. They only managed 257 total yards against the Bears and were outgained by 72 yards. They simply benefited from being +4 in turnovers. They improved to 7-0 on the road this season with seven wins by double-digits, which is crazy.
The Cardinals have been much more vulnerable at home this season. They are 3-2 at home but two of those wins were misleading ones against the Vikings (by 1) and 49ers (by 7). The Vikings gave that game away by missing kicks, including a short game-winner. The 49ers lost 17-10 with Trey Lance at QB and squandered a ton of opportunities in Arizona territory. The other win was against the Texans. They also lost to the depleted Packers at home, and were crushed by the Panthers 34-10 at home.
That was a rare loss by the Rams against the Cardinals earlier this season. They had dominated this series, and I look for Sean McVay to get back to his dominance of Kliff Kingsbury as he is the better coach and will make the proper adjustments. The Rams are still 8-1 SU & 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Cardinals with all eight wins by 7 points or more and seven by double-digits.
Los Angeles is 6-0 ATS in its last six trips to Arizona. The Cardinals are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as home favorites. Arizona is 2-6 ATS in its last eight vs. a team with a winning record. The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games in the second half of the season.
Plays on road underdogs or PK (LA Rams) - after failing to cover three of their last four games ATS against an opponent that covered three of their last four games ATS are 27-5 (84.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Rams Monday.
|12-12-21||Bills v. Bucs OVER 53||Top||27-33||Win||100||98 h 46 m||Show|
20* Bills/Bucs Non-Conference No-Brainer on OVER 53
It's going to be perfect weather in Tampa Bay Sunday. The forecast calling for temps in the upper-70's with 4 MPH winds. It's perfect conditions for a shootout between two of the best offenses in the NFL. The Bucs rank 1st in scoring offense (31.4 PPG) while the Bills rank 5th (28.0 PPG) this season.
And I think the fact that both of these teams went UNDER the total last week is keeping this total lower than it should be. Buffalo played the Patriots in terrible winds. And clearly the OVER on the Bucs/Falcons game was the right side but came up short.
The Bucs are going to continue to put up big numbers on offense. They have scored 30 or more points now in three straight games and in seven of their 12 games this season. Tom Brady has thrown for at least 4 TD passes in six of his 12 games this season.
The Bills are missing their best cover corner in Tre'Davious White, who recently tore his ACL. His loss wasn't important last week, but it will be against the Bucs this week. The Bills will get their offense going this week. They have scored 31 or more points in seven of their 12 games this season.
They'll be up against a banged-up Tampa Bay secondary. Richard Sherman and Jamel Dean are both questionable, and they are missing Mike Edwards and Carlton Davis already. The Falcons moved the ball up and down the field on them but didn't capitalize in the red zone. The Bills will capitalize and keep pace with the Bucs. I expect at least one team to get to 30 points in this one if not both.
Tampa Bay is 11-2 OVER in its last 13 games off a win by 10 points or more. Buffalo is 8-1 OVER in its last nine games following a division game. The Bills are 7-0 OVER in their last even road games against a good passing team that completes 61% or better. The OVER is 6-0 in Bills last six games as underdogs. The OVER is 11-4 in Bucs last 15 games as home favorites. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-12-21||Ravens v. Browns -2||Top||22-24||Push||0||109 h 14 m||Show|
25* AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Browns -2
This is the perfect spot for the Cleveland Browns. I don't remember ever seeing a team play the same team twice surrounding their bye week. But that's the situation for the Browns. They lost to the Ravens 16-10 on the road in Week 12 before getting their bye last week. And now they get to host the Ravens coming out of their bye. So they have basically been preparing for the Ravens for three straight weeks. That's a huge advantage for them.
The Ravens have been in five straight dog fights the last five weeks with four games decided by one score. That includes their 20-19 loss to the Steelers last week in which they went for a 2-point conversion after scoring in the final seconds but came up just short. They will suffer a hangover from that defeat.
And while the Browns are healthier coming out of their bye, the injury situation is a terrible one for the Ravens. The reason they went for 2 was because they were down to three cornerbacks and didn't like their chances in overtime. Marlon Humphrey suffered a season-ending injury against the Steelers.
They also have key injuries along their front seven on defense and along their offensive line. Lamar Jackson has been a turnover machine in recent weeks trying to do too much. He has 10 interceptions and has been sacked 24 games in their last six games. This really looks like a Ravens team that is close to falling apart, and that could very well happen this week against the Browns.
The Ravens are the most overrated team in the NFL. They are nowhere near as good as their 8-4 record. They finally lost a close game last week, and their stats are awful. They average 5.5 yards per play on offense and give up 6.0 yards per play, getting outgained by 0.5 yards per play on the season. The rank 31st on defense in yards per play allowed.
The Browns gain 5.7 yards per play on offense and give up 5.2 yards per play on defense, outgaining teams by 0.5 yards per play. So they have been a full one yard per play better than Baltimore this season. They rank 5th in the NFL in yards per play allowed on defense.
We're getting the better, healthier team in the better situation off the bye as a short home favorite here of less than a field goal. Bet the Browns Sunday.
|12-12-21||Raiders +10.5 v. Chiefs||9-48||Loss||-120||65 h 7 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Las Vegas Raiders +10.5
This is a great 'buy low' spot on the Las Vegas Raiders after a 15-17 home loss to the Washington Football Team last week. This came after a 36-33 upset win at the Dallas Cowboys. The Raiders can stay within single-digits of the Chiefs and possibly pull off the upset.
This is also a great 'sell high' spot on the Chiefs, who have reeled off five straight victories and are 3-0 ATS in their last three games. They never should have covered in their 22-9 win over the Broncos last week. They were outgained by 137 yards by the the Broncos in that contest and gave up 404 total yards and only 9 points, which doesn't add up.
This Kansas City offense just isn't the same as it used to be. They were held to 267 yards by the Broncos, 370 by the Cowboys, 237 by the Packers, 368 by the Giants and 334 by the Titans in five of their last six games. Of course, the one exception was when they went off against the Raiders, but I'm expecting the Raiders to make the proper adjustments in the rematch. They will be out for revenge as well.
Las Vegas looks like the better team when you dive into the important stats. The Raiders rank 4th in the NFL averaging 6.0 yards per play on offense, while the Chiefs rank 9th at 5.8 yards per play. The Raiders rank 9th in the NFL allowing 5.3 yards per play on defense, while the Chiefs rank 30th at 6.0 yards per play allowed. Las Vegas outgains its opponents by 0.7 yards per play, while Kansas City is getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play.
The Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs. Kansas City is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season. The Chiefs are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games overall. Kansas City is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 home games. The Chiefs go from being 2.5-point road favorites at Las Vegas to 10.5-point home favorites in the rematch. This is too big of an adjustment. Roll with the Raiders Sunday.
|12-09-21||Steelers v. Vikings -3||Top||28-36||Win||100||11 h 15 m||Show|
20* Steelers/Vikings Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Minnesota -3
This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Minnesota Vikings and 'sell high' on the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Vikings are coming off two straight road losses to the 49ers and Lions, and that upset loss to the Lions looks real bad. Meanwhile, the Steelers just upset the Ravens at home.
But now the Steelers hit the road on a short week off a physical game against the Ravens. Their last two road performances were miserable. They lost 10-41 at Cincinnati and 37-41 to the Chargers in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. They were down 27-10 going into the 4th quarter before miraculously scoring 27 points in the final period. They were outgained by 233 yards by the Chargers and should have lost by more.
Minnesota is back home where they were last seen upsetting the Green Bay Packers. They have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL. Their season is on the line here, so we'll get a big effort from them. And they get back three key players from injury in LB Eric Kendricks, LB Anthony Barr and CB Patrick Peterson. Being without those three is a big reason why the Lions had success on offense against them last week.
The stats show the Vikings are by far the superior team. They rank 7th in the NFL with 5.8 yards per play on offense while the Steelers rank just 27th at 5.0 yards per play. Pittsburgh is slightly better on defense at 5.7 yards per play allowed while Minnesota gives up 5.8 yards per play. But the Steelers have played a very weak schedule of opposing offenses compared to the Vikings.
Minnesota is much better than its 5-7 record as all seven losses have come by one score. Pittsburgh isn't as good as its 6-5-1 record as four of its five losses have come by double-digits, while all six wins have come by one score. So we are getting artificial line value here on the Vikings because most look at these as even teams and give the Vikings 3 points for home field. But that's just not the case. The Vikings are the far superior team and it will show tonight.
Mike Zimmer is 16-5 ATS following two or more consecutive losses as the coach of Minnesota. Zimmer is 13-3 ATS after a loss by 3 points or less as the coach of the Vikings. The Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. The Vikings are 42-19 ATS in their last 61 games following a loss.
Plays against any team (Pittsburgh) - off an upset win as a home underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS since 1983. Bet the Vikings Thursday.
|12-06-21||Patriots v. Bills -2.5||Top||14-10||Loss||-120||125 h 38 m||Show|
20* Patriots/Bills MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo -2.5
It's time to 'sell high' on the New England Patriots. They have gone 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with most their wins coming via blowout. But it has been about as an easy a schedule as possible. They beat the banged-up Jets, the Chargers, the Panthers, the banged-up Browns, the banged-up Falcons and the banged-up Titans. This is a huge step up in class for them Monday night.
The Buffalo Bills are a legitimate Super Bowl contender this season. They bounced back from a bad loss to the Colts where they had four turnovers with a 31-6 road win over the Saints on Thanksgiving. Now they have had extra rest and will be ready to go Monday night with a great atmosphere in Buffalo with first place on the line in the AFC East. We'll get an 'A' effort from the Bills, and their 'A' game is much better than that of the Patriots.
New England relies heavily on running the football. Well, the Bills have allowed 79 or fewer rushing yards in four of their last five games overall. They key to their run defense is LB Tremaine Edmunds. The Bills only give up 3.6 yards per carry with him on the field. Edmunds is healthy now, and this is one of the healthiest rosters in the entire NFL.
I've heard plenty about the weather in Buffalo Monday night being a reason bettors are on the Patriots. I disagree that the temps in the 20s with near-20 MPH winds helps New England. I think it actually favors the Bills, who have a strong-armed quarterback in Josh Allen who can cut through any wind, and also beat the Patriots with his legs.
Mac Jones is more of a finesse quarterback who will struggle more with the wind than Allen will. The Bills are a better rushing team than the Patriots, too. They average 118 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry, while the Patriots average 115 yards per game and 4.1 per carry. New England is only outgaining its opponents by 38.7 yards per game, while Buffalo is outgaining opponents by 113.7 yards per game. The Bills are clearly the better team and should be more than 2.5-point home favorites here.
Buffalo is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when the line is +3 to -3. The Bills are 10-2 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. Buffalo is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing 4 yards per play or less last game. The Bills are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall. The Patriots come back down to reality with this big step up in competition this week. Roll with the Bills Monday.
|12-05-21||Giants v. Dolphins -4||Top||9-20||Win||100||93 h 25 m||Show|
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Dolphins -4
The Miami Dolphins are grossly undervalued after a 1-7 start this season. They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS since as they have gotten healthy and gotten back to playing the same dominant defense that got them as far as they did last year.
The Dolphins beat the Texans 17-9 with Jacob Brissett and held them to just 272 total yards while forcing four turnovers. They then beat the Ravens 22-10 and held them to 304 total yards while forcing two turnovers. They went on to beat the Jets 24-17. And last week they crushed the Panthers 33-10 at home and held them to just 198 total yards while forcing three turnovers.
Tua returned in the second half against the Ravens and had a great finish, completing 8-of-13 passes for 158 yards while also rushing for a score. He started against the Jets and had another solid game through the air, going 27-of-33 passing for 273 yards with two touchdowns and one pick. And last week he went 27-of-31 passing for 230 yards and a touchdown without a pick against a very good Carolina defense. That's 81% completions for Tua over the last three weeks. Having Tua back healthy and a dominant defense makes the Dolphins a sleeper moving forward.
Now they take on the Giants, who have about as bad an injury report as any team in the NFL right now. It got even worse with QB Daniel Jones ruled out this week, so Mike Glennon will get the start in his place. They will also be without WR's Sterling Shepard and Kedarius Toney with several other key players either ruled out or questionable. They have one of the worst injury reports in the entire NFL.
Miami has been blitzing a ton in recent weeks and trusting their lockdown secondary, which has been the key to their turnaround defensively. The statue, Glennon, is going to be under duress all game, and he doesn't have the healthy playmakers around him to make the Dolphins pay for blitzing. They will continue their recent surge with a 5th straight win and cover in blowout fashion over the short-handed Giants on Sunday. They will be up against a shaky New York offense that has managed just 264, 215 and 245 total yards in the three weeks, respectively.
The Dolphins are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games. Miami is 9-1 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last two seasons. The Dolphins are 7-0 ATS in home games in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. The Giants are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after winning two of their last three games. Bet the Dolphins Sunday.
|12-05-21||Bucs v. Falcons OVER 50||Top||30-17||Loss||-118||45 h 41 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bucs/Falcons OVER 50
This game definitely sets up to be a shootout. I don't think it will be as high scoring as the first meeting when the Bucs won 48-25 for 73 combined points. There won't be as many defensive touchdowns. But we just need the OVER 50 here, and that shouldn't be a problem.
The Bucs are decimated in the secondary right now, which will allow Matt Ryan to have a big game, especially since he has a healthy Cordarrelle Patterson back to get the ball to. Patterson has been almost as important a player to his team as any player in the NFL this season that's a non-quarterback. It's a Tampa Bay secondary that will be without Richard Sherman, Carlton Davis and Mike Edwards and could be without Jamel Dean.
The Bucs got Gronk back on offense and are hitting on all cylinders on that side of the ball. They followed up a 30-point performance against the Giants with 38 points against the Colts last week. They should easily get to 30 or more here, and I think the Falcons are good for at least 20 while trying to pay catch up against a soft Bucs secondary.
The OVER is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings, including 5-0 in the last five meetings in Atlanta. They have combined for 50 or more points in 10 of their last 11 meetings. The Bucs are 17-5 OVER in their last 22 games vs. division opponents. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-05-21||Chargers v. Bengals OVER 49||41-22||Win||100||45 h 41 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Chargers/Bengals OVER 49
These are two of the better offenses in the NFL and they should have no problem combining to top 49 points in this game Sunday. It will be sunny with temperatures in the 40's in Cincinnati on Sunday with light winds under 10 MPH. The weather will make for perfect scoring conditions in this matchup of two of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL.
The Bengals are scoring 28.1 points per game this season. Joe Burrow is completing 69.3% of his passes for 2,835 yards with a 22-to-12 TD/INT ratio this season. Joe Mixon has rushed for 924 yards and 11 touchdowns and should have a huge game on the ground against a Chargers defense that is the worst in the NFL against the run. They give up 145 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry this season, and 26.6 points per game overall.
The Chargers are scoring 24.8 points per game this season and averaging 383.8 yards per game. Justin Herbert is completing 66% of his passes for 3,230 yards with a 24-to-10 TD/INT ratio. Austin Ekeler has rushed for 604 yards and has 473 receiving yards with 14 combined touchdowns. The Bengals have good defensive numbers, but they have also played the easiest schedule in the NFL of opposing offenses. Their defense isn't as good as the numbers would suggest.
The OVER is 6-1-1 in Bengals last eight games as home favorites. The OVER is 4-0 in Bengals last four games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Look for a shootout as Burrow and Herbert try and match each other score for score in this one. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-05-21||Bucs v. Falcons +11||30-17||Loss||-108||45 h 41 m||Show|
15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Falcons +11
Cordarrelle Patterson has meant everything to this Atlanta offense this season. He has 411 rushing yards and four touchdowns to go along with 41 receptions for 500 yards and five scores. With Calvin Ridley out, his presence on the field is even bigger. Their offense has been good with him, but without him it has been dreadful.
The Falcons are going to want revenge from a 25-48 road loss to the Bucs as 13-point dogs in their first meeting. That game was much closer than the final score showed as it was a 3-point game in the 4th quarter before two straight pick-6's from Matt Ryan to blow it open. That's unlikely to happen again, and I like the Falcons' chances of matching Tom Brady and company score for score in this one to stay within this massive 11-point spread.
The Falcons will never be out of this game because they will be up against a banged-up Tampa Bay secondary that will be without Richard Sherman, Carlton Davis and Mike Edwards and could be without Jamel Dean. The Bucs give up 67.7% completions on the season and their secondary is their weakness.
Tampa Bay is 3-3 SU & 1-5 ATS in road games this season with its three wins coming by 6 of Philadelphia, by 2 of New England and by 7 over Indianapolis. So the Bucs haven't blown anyone out on the road this year. They were fortunate to beat the Colts last week, who handed that game away by committing five turnovers in a 31-38 defeat.
Tampa Bay is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after playing a game where 60 points or more were scored. The Bucs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as road favorites. The Falcons are 6-2 ATS in their last eight December games and have been great at playing the role of spoiler down the stretch in recent years. But they are still 5-6 this season and very much alive for the playoffs, so they have a lot to play for. The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. Take the Falcons Sunday.
|12-05-21||Colts v. Texans +10||31-0||Loss||-106||45 h 41 m||Show|
15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Texans +10
This is a terrible spot for the Indianapolis Colts. After crushing the Bills on the road, they came back home and blew a double-digit lead against the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs in a 38-31 shootout defeat. That loss will have taken a lot out of them, and now this is a sandwich spot with bigger games on deck against the Patriots and Cardinals. They will be overlooking the Texans.
We saw what happens when a team overlooks Tyrod Taylor and the Texans two weeks ago. They went into Tennessee and won outright as 10-point dogs. And after coming back home and losing to the Jets, we are getting great value on the Texans again this week as double-digit home underdogs. They will get up for this game against a division opponent just as they did for the Titans two weeks ago.
This Houston defense is improving, and the offense is much better with Taylor, who has been a covering machine throughout his career. The Texans are allowing just 17.0 points per game in their last three games while forcing 11 turnovers. They have not quit on that side of the ball. Their offense can make enough plays with Taylor to keep this game close, too.
Indianapolis beat Houston 31-3 at home in their first meeting, making this a revenge game for the Texans and adding to their motivation. But that game was with Davis Mills at QB for the Texans, and it was much closer than the final score showed. Indianapolis only outgained Houston by 35 yards in that contest. But the Texans beat themselves by being -3 in turnovers and failing to score on several red zone trips. Taylor won't make the same mistakes that Mills did.
Houston is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 home games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 points or more. The Texans are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games following a home loss. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Houston) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent coming off a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Texans Sunday.
|12-02-21||Cowboys -5 v. Saints||27-17||Win||100||11 h 39 m||Show|
15* Cowboys/Saints NFC ANNIHILATOR on Dallas -5
The Dallas Cowboys should get right tonight after losing two straight and three of their last four. They get several key players back from injury this week, not the least of which are their top two receivers in Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb.
The Cowboys should score at will on a Saints defense that is mostly responsible for going 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall. They were upset at home as 7-point favorites against the Falcons, lost by 2 on the road to a banged-up Tennessee team, lost by 11 as 3-point dogs at Philadelphia and lost by 25 as 7-point home dogs to the Bills.
This New Orleans defense gave up 40 points to Philadelphia and 31 more to Buffalo. I think the Cowboys will get to 30 in this game, and that will be enough to cover this 5-point spread because this New Orleans offense is broken as well.
Trevor Siemian went 0-3 as a starter and now the Saints are likely to turn to the hobbled Taysom Hill in desperation. They have terrible weapons on the outside, and Alvin Kamara is questionable to return this week. They have several injuries on defense and on offense that have held them back in recent weeks and continue to be a problem.
Dallas is 6-0 ATS vs. NFC opponents this season. New Orleans is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games following a home loss by 10 points or more. The Cowboys are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall. The Saints are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record. Dallas is getting right now in the health department, and New Orleans is broken. Bet the Cowboys Thursday.
|11-29-21||Seahawks v. Washington Football Team -105||Top||15-17||Win||100||69 h 7 m||Show|
20* Seattle/Washington ESPN No-Brainer on Washington PK
The Washington Football Team has climbed its way back into playoff contention by winning two straight games outright as underdogs. They beat the Bucs 29-19 as 10-point home dogs before going on the road and topping the Panthers 27-21 as 3-point dogs. They had a bye prior to the Tampa Bay game and have come back a different team.
But Washington has been playing elite defense for weeks. In their last four games, they held the Packers to 24 points and 304 yards, the Broncos to 17 points and 273 yards, the Bucs to 19 points and 273 yards and the Panthers to 21 points and 297 yards.
Their defense should win them this game as well against a Seattle offense that can't get anything going. The Seahawks have been held to 20 points or fewer in five of their last six games. They have scored a combined 13 points in their two games since Russell Wilson returned, so his presence hasn't mattered and he does not look healthy.
The Seahawks are now 3-7 and out of playoff contention. Their numbers are every bit as bad as their record suggests. They are averaging just 298.6 yards per game on offense and allowing 401.8 yards per game on defense, getting outgained by a whopping 103.2 yards per game. To compare, Washington is only getting outgained by 20.7 yards per game on the season.
Seattle is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games in the second half of the season. Seattle is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 road games. The Football Team is 4-0 ATS in their last four November games. Ron Rivera is 21-7 ATS off an upset win as an underdog as a head coach. We have two teams headed in opposite directions here. Bet Washington Monday.
|11-28-21||Vikings v. 49ers -3||Top||26-34||Win||100||97 h 10 m||Show|
20* Vikings/49ers NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco -3
The 49ers had a team meeting after their terrible loss to Colt McCoy and the Cardinals. They came back and throttled the Rams 31-10 at home while holding them to just 278 total yards. Then they made that win count by going on the road and dominating the Jaguars 30-10 and holding them to just 200 total yards. Now the 49ers are starting to play like the team everyone thought they'd be coming into the season.
But we continue getting them at a discount because of their 5-5 record. Their numbers are elite. They average 360 yards per game on offense and have been even better when Jimmy G and George Kittle are healthy, which both are now. And they have one of the best defenses in the NFL at 318 yards per game allowed. They are outgaining opponents by over 40 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play.
Minnesota is also 5-5 but doesn't have as good of numbers. The Vikings only outgain opponents by 8 yards per game and actually get outgained by 0.2 yards per play on the season. And I think it's a terrible spot for the Vikings. They are coming off a huge last-second win over their biggest rivals in the Green Bay Packers. And that's a banged-up Packers team at that and they took advantage. Now they have to travel clear out to the West Coast. There's no way they'll be as motivated for this game as they were for the Packers, and I expect them to fall flat here.
Minnesota is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 games off an upset win as a home underdog. The Vikings are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games following a win by 3 points or less. The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last five meetings with the home team winning all four games by 8 points or more. I think we see the 49ers continue playing their best football of the season and win this game by more than a field goal over the Vikings. Take the 49ers Sunday.
|11-28-21||Chargers v. Broncos +3||13-28||Win||100||41 h 58 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Denver Broncos +3
Death, taxes and Teddy Bridgewater as an underdog. Bridgewater is 25-9 ATS as an underdog in his career as a starting quarterback. And I think we are getting tremendous value on the Broncos this week as home underdogs to the Los Angeles Chargers.
The Broncos sit at 5-5 and ready to try and make a run at the playoffs here down the stretch. They come in off their bye week, so they will be fresh and have had two weeks to prepare for Justin Herbert and company. It should be a great atmosphere for the Broncos, and I fully expect them to win this game outright thanks to their rest and preparation advantage.
The Chargers will be playing for a 5th consecutive week and all five games went down to the wire decided by 7 points or less. That includes their crazy 41-37 win over the Steelers last week in which they blew a big lead and needed some late heroics from Justin Herbert to get the victory. I expect them to still be feeling the after-effects of all these close games and especially that tiring shootout last week on Sunday Night Football.
The key matchup here is that the Broncos will be able to run the football at will on the Chargers and control the game with time off possession. They are a solid running team averaging 4.5 yards per carry, and they'll be up against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. The Chargers allow 145 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry.
Denver is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 games following a bye week. Los Angeles is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games after gaining 400 or more total yards in its previous game. The Chargers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 November games. The Broncos are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Take the Broncos Sunday.
|11-28-21||Panthers v. Dolphins +2.5||Top||10-33||Win||100||94 h 45 m||Show|
25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Dolphins +2.5
The Miami Dolphins are grossly undervalued after a 1-7 start this season. They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS since as they have gotten healthy and gotten back to playing the same dominant defense that got them as far as they did last year.
The Dolphins beat the Texans 17-9 with Jacob Brissett and held them to just 272 total yards while forcing four turnovers. They then beat the Ravens 22-10 and held them to 304 total yards while forcing two turnovers. And last week they beat the Jets 24-17.
Tua returned in the second half against the Ravens and had a great finish, completing 8-of-13 passes for 158 yards while also rushing for a score. He started against the Jets and had another solid game through the air, going 27-of-33 passing for 273 yards with two touchdowns and one pick.
Having Tua back healthy and a dominant defense makes the Dolphins a sleeper moving forward, especially with three straight home games against suspect competition coming up with a chance to get back to .500. This team believes right now, and that is a big thing as we head down the stretch run of the season.
The Panthers continue to be overvalued from their blowout win at Arizona two weeks ago in Cam Newton's return. Newton got the nod last week and did not play well, losing 21-27 at home to Washington as 3-point favorites. Now they are favored against on the road here, and I just don't trust Newton to be able to beat Miami's blitz-happy defense with his arm. We saw what they did to Lamar Jackson two weeks ago. The formula will be the same here against Newton and the Panthers.
Carolina is 5-13-1 ATS in its last 14 games as a road favorite. The Panthers are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Dolphins are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games. Miami is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Dolphins Sunday.
|11-28-21||Bucs v. Colts +3||Top||38-31||Loss||-103||38 h 53 m||Show|
20* Bucs/Colts Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indianapolis +3
The Indianapolis Colts are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only losses both coming in overtime to Baltimore and Tennessee. Carson Wentz has not thrown an interception in eight of his last nine games. And the Colts have a great defense and running game. They are definitely one of the biggest sleepers in the NFL right now.
That showed last week in their 41-15 win at Buffalo behind five touchdowns from arguably the best RB in the NFL in Jonathan Taylor. They could have a letdown, but I don't think so considering they still have a lot of work to do to make the playoffs as they sit at just 6-5 on the season. And they have the defending Super Bowl champion Bucs coming to town, so they are almost assuredly not going to let up.
I just don't think Tampa Bay can be trusted on the road, either. The Bucs are 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS on the road this season. Their two wins came by 2 points over the Patriots and 6 over the Eagles. They lost at the Rams by 10, were upset at New Orleans by 9 and also upset as a double-digit favorite at Washington by 10. This might be their toughest road test of the season.
Plus, the Bucs are on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. They could be without their best run stuffer in defensive tackle Vita Vea, who sat out last game. They have injuries in the secondary and on offense that are concerning. And I just think they are overvalued after beating the lowly Giants Monday night.
The Colts are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games against good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt. The Bucs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as road favorites. Indianapolis is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as an underdog. These three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing Indianapolis. Roll with the Colts Sunday.
|11-28-21||Eagles v. Giants +4||7-13||Win||100||38 h 53 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Giants +4
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Philadelphia Eagles. They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. But those three wins came against the Lions, Broncos and Saints. And we saw how bad the Saints looked against the Bills on Thursday as they are missing several key players, as were the Broncos when they played them.
It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Giants after they were waxed 30-10 by the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs on Monday Night Football. That was a pissed off Bucs team coming off two straight losses, so they caught them at a bad time.
The Giants were playing well prior to that defeat, going 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their previous three games. They upset the Panthers 25-3 at home, only lost by 3 to the Chiefs as 10.5-point road dogs, and upset the Raiders 23-16 at home. They had a bye after that game against Las Vegas, so they should still be fresh even though they are on a short week here after playing on Monday.
The Giants are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after losing four or five of their last six games coming in. The Eagles are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win. New York is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Giants are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing record.
Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Philadelphia) after winning two of its last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 73-31 (70.2%) ATS since 1983. Bet the Giants Sunday.
|11-25-21||Bills -6 v. Saints||Top||31-6||Win||100||37 h 41 m||Show|
20* Bills/Saints NBC Thursday Night BAILOUT on Buffalo -6
The Buffalo Bills have responded well after bad losses this season. They want to get the taste out of their mouth from that 41-15 loss to the Colts in which they were -4 in turnovers. The good news is they don't have to wait long to do it here against the New Orleans Saints.
The Bills have four losses this season. They are 3-0 ATS following a loss. After losing to Pittsburgh in the opener, they beat Miami 35-0 on the road the next week. After losing at Tennessee, they won 26-11 at home against Miami the next week. And after losing at Jacksonville, they won 45-17 at the New York Jets the next week.
The Saints continue getting respect from oddsmakers that they don't deserve with a third-string QB. They are 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in their last three games overall. They are coming off a 40-29 loss at Philadelphia in which they gave up 242 rushing yards. They were upset at home as 7-point favorites against the Falcons and gave up 332 passing yards.
Injuries are adding up for the Saints, and they just don't have a good enough offense to keep up with the Bills. And Jalen Hurts ran wild on the Saints last week. Now they face another mobile quarterback in Josh Allen, who should have a monster game against their defense as well. And the Bills are about as healthy as any team in the NFL at this point in the season.
Plays against underdogs or PK (New Orleans) - after going over the total by 35 or more points in their last three games are 35-13 (77.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Buffalo is 8-1 ATS in its last nine non-conference games. The Bills are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss by more than 14 points. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Bills Thursday.
|11-25-21||Raiders v. Cowboys UNDER 51||36-33||Loss||-110||33 h 51 m||Show|
15* Raiders/Cowboys Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UNDER 51
The Raiders are broken offensively since losing Harry Ruggs to injury. They have scored 16 points or fewer in three consecutive games now and it has come against some pretty weak defenses in the Giants, Chiefs and Bengals. They won't do much better here against the Cowboys with an offense that only really features Darren Waller as a decent weapon.
The Cowboys have been held to 20 or fewer points in three of their last four. Injuries are really piling up for them on offense as well. Amari Cooper is out, and CeeDee Lamb and Ezekiel Elliott are questionable. But the Cowboys have an improved defense this season that gives up just 21.4 points per game. They have held three of their last four opponents to 19 points or fewer, including the 19 points allowed to the Chiefs last week.
The Raiders are also improved defensively this season. They give up just 352.7 yards per game. They have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL and should be able to get after Dak Prescott. They held Joe Burrow and Cincinnati's high-powered offense to just 129 passing yards on 20-of-29 attempts. Three weeks ago they held the Giants to 96 passing yards. They are giving up just 6.1 yards per attempt this season.
The UNDER is 4-0 in Cowboys last four games overall. The UNDER is 7-2 in Cowboys last nine November games. The UNDER is 7-3 in Raiders last 10 November games. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|11-22-21||Giants +11.5 v. Bucs||Top||10-30||Loss||-116||68 h 18 m||Show|
20* Giants/Bucs ESPN No-Brainer on New York +11.5
The Tampa Bay Bucs continue to get too much respect from oddsmakers after winning the Super Bowl last year. They are just 3-6 ATS this season. After losing 27-36 on the road to the Saints and Trevor Siemian, the Bucs had their bye week and many expected a big effort. Instead, they lost outright 19-29 to Washington as 10-point favorites.
Now the Bucs come back as 11.5-point home favorites over another NFC East team in the New York Giants. This despite the fact that the Bucs are missing several key players. They are missing three cornerbacks, and they lost their run stuffer in Vita Vea last week with an injury. He is crucial to their front seven and is one of the most underrated players in the NFL. Offensively, they'll still be without Rob Gronkowki, and Antonio Brown is questionable after sitting last week.
Don't look now but the Giants are quietly playing some great football. They have gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. They beat Carolina 25-3 as 3-point dogs and Las Vegas 23-16 as 3-point dogs. Their lone loss, they nearly upset the Chiefs in a 17-20 defeat as 10.5-point road dogs. And now they are coming off their bye week and will be even healthier than they were last time out against the Raiders.
The Giants are a pretty easy team to figure out. Always bet them as a road underdogs. Indeed, the Giants are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 road games, and 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as road underdogs. The road team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Giants are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six trips to Tampa Bay. Bruce Arians is 0-6 ATS vs. NFC East opponents as the coach of Tampa Bay. Bet the Giants Monday.
|11-21-21||Texans +10.5 v. Titans||Top||22-13||Win||100||94 h 7 m||Show|
25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Texans +10.5
This is the spot the Tennessee Titans have their letdown. They have now won six straight games including five in a row against playoff teams from last year. I question how much they have left in the tank after their wins over the Jaguars, Bills, Chiefs, Colts, Rams and Saints the last six weeks.
This is a tired team right now too as the Titans haven't had a bye week yet and won't get one until Week 13. The injuries are piling up. They have 23 players on injured reserve. They are already without Derrick Henry and Julio Jones, leaving basically just Ryan Tannehill and AJ Brown as their best offensive players by far. LB's Bud Dupree, David Long Jr. and Rashaan Evans are all questionable, as is CB Greg Mabin.
The Titans were very fortunate to beat the Rams and Saints the last two weeks with their lack of offense. They beat the Rams despite just 194 total yards. They managed just 264 total yards against the Saints and had a fluky roughing the passer penalty go their way on Tannehill that wiped out an INT in the end zone and led to 7 points, which was the difference in their 23-21 victory. It also helped that the Saints missed two extra points. And the Saints should have won that game with a third-string QB in Trevor Siemian and without their best player in Alvin Kamara.
The Texans will be highly motivated for their first victory since Week 1. They are coming off their bye week and facing the division leader in the Titans, so they will give a big effort. It's clear they are still trying to win games or they wouldn't have brought back QB Tyrod Taylor. He was rusty in his first start back against the Dolphins, but he should get back to his old self off a bye. And his old self is a covering machine and one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the NFL with his ability as a dual-threat.
Both meetings last season were decided by 3 and 6 points. And in both games, the Texans had a chance to win late but fumbled going into the end zone. They have not forgotten, and they would love nothing more than to get their revenge here. I think they have an excellent chance to win outright, but at the very least they will cover this 10.5-point spread with ease.
Plays on road underdogs or PK (Houston) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games against an opponent that covered the spread in three of their last four games are 36-4 (86.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Plays on road underdogs or PK (Houston) after six or more consecutive losses in Weeks 10 through 13 are 43-13 (76.8%) ATS since 1983. This is the ultimate 'buy low, sell high' spot. We'll 'buy low' on the Texans off eight straight losses. And we'll 'sell high' on the Titans off six straight wins. It's that simple folks as we are getting max line value here. Bet the Texans Sunday.
|11-21-21||Colts +7.5 v. Bills||Top||41-15||Win||100||94 h 4 m||Show|
20* Colts/Bills AFC No-Brainer on Indianapolis +7.5
The Buffalo Bills have beaten up on the bad teams they have faced. Their six wins have come against Houston, Miami (twice), Washington, Kansas City and the New York Jets. Five of those six wins came against teams that are 3-6 or worse. The lone decent win was against the Chiefs, but they are way down this season too. The Bills also lost to the Jaguars, Steelers and Titans. They have played the 32nd-ranked schedule in the NFL according to Sagain.
The Colts have played a much tougher schedule. And they are playing their best football of the season after a slow start. The Colts have gone 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall. Their two losses both came in overtime to the Ravens and Titans in games in which they blew late leads. So they haven't lost any of their last seven games by more than 6 points.
The Colts are as healthy as they have been all season. They have a Top 10 defense to contain Josh Allen and this offense. And the Colts have been serviceable with Carson Wentz at quarterback and the running of Jonathan Taylor at running back. There could be some bad weather in Buffalo Sunday, so that favors the team that can run the football in the Colts. The Bills have struggled to run the ball again this season.
One sneaky factor here is that the Colts want revenge from a 24-27 road loss as nearly identical 7-point underdogs to the Bills in the playoffs last year. They actually deserved to win that game outright. They had 472 total yards against this Buffalo defense and outgained them by 75 yards. They rushed for 163 yards on this Buffalo defense.
The Colts are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt. Indianapolis is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. good offensive teams that average at least 350 yards per game. The Colts are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games overall.
I just think this line is too big of an overreaction to Buffalo's blowout win over the Jets last week in which the Jets committed five turnovers. They had just lost outright to the Jaguars as a 14.5-point favorite the week prior, so it's amazing how the betting markets shift their opinions in just one week. The Colts are not the type of team that gets blown out, they are too solid everywhere and will keep this game within one score. Take the Colts Sunday.
|11-21-21||Dolphins -3 v. Jets||24-17||Win||100||93 h 34 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Dolphins -3
You definitely need to jump on the Dolphins as soon as possible. This line isn't going to hold at -3 for much longer. Joe Flacco is expected to start for the Jets. He has been a disaster and it's amazing he is even in the league. They will now be on their 4th different starting quarterback.
The offense will be a mess with him at the helm. And it just shows the Jets don't care about winning games by inserting Flacco instead of Mike White or Josh Johnson. They don't want there to be a QB controversy when Zach Wilson comes back.
New York's defense is already a mess, allowing a total of 175 points in their last 4 games for an average of 43.4 points per game. This is far and away the worst defense in the NFL. The Dolphins are in line for one of their best offensive performances of the season this week.
Tua came back in the 2nd half against the Ravens and led them to a 22-10 victory. His finger looked absolutely fine. He went 8-of-13 passing for 153 yards and averaged 12.2 yards per attempt. He also scored a rushing touchdown. And now the Dolphins get extra prep time after playing the Ravens last Thursday, which is basically a mine-bye week.
This Miami defense has gotten healthy in recent weeks and is getting back to being the dominant unit that led this team last year. They held Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to 10 points and 304 total yards while forcing two turnovers. That came a week after holding the Texans to just 9 points and 272 yards while forcing 4 more turnovers. And that was a Texans team with Tyrod Taylor at QB, which is a big upgrade over Davis Mills.
Miami won both meetings last year in blowout fashion, 24-0 at home and 20-3 on the road. The Dolphins improved to 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Jets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall and just a hot mess right now from head coach Robert Saleh, to the leaky defense, to the washed up Joe Flacco at quarterback. There's just nothing to like about them right now.
Miami has all the 'buy on' signs you are looking for late in the season. They are undervalued due to their 3-7 record. But they have won two straight and have a great chance of getting back to .500 at 7-7 with the upcoming schedule. After facing the Jets this week, they get three straight home games against the Panthers, Giants and Jets in games they should be favored in. Everything is still in front of them. Roll with the Dolphins Sunday.
|11-18-21||Patriots v. Falcons +7||Top||25-0||Loss||-115||29 h 21 m||Show|
20* Patriots/Falcons Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta +7
It's time to 'sell high' on the New England Patriots. They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. They are coming off the 45-7 victory over Cleveland last week resulting in the second-biggest blowout in the NFL. I always like fading teams coming off the big blowout like that because they are always overvalued the next week.
Couple that with the fact that the Falcons are coming off the biggest blowout loss, losing 43-3 to the Cowboys last week. And we are getting max line value based off of one week's results. A team is never as good or bad as they played last week. And the Falcons should not be catching 7 points at home to the Patriots Thursday night.
These short weeks always tend to favor the home teams. And you know the Falcons will be playing with a chip on their shoulder, while the Patriots will be feeling fat and happy coming into this one. Keep in mind Atlanta just went on the road and won outright at New Orleans as a 7-point underdog the week prior to losing to Dallas. And Dallas was just down 30-0 to Denver the previous week before blowout out Atlanta.
This is just how the NFL works. You won't to fade last week's results because that's where you get optimal line value. The lookahead line for this game was Patriots -4. So we are getting a full 3 points of value here with the Patriots now at -7 based off last week's results alone.
Each of Atlanta's previous six games before Dallas were decided by 7 points or fewer, and they hadn't lost any of them by more than 6 points. I think this game is decided by one score either way. The Falcons are 6-0 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse over the last three seasons. Bet the Falcons Thursday.
|11-15-21||Rams v. 49ers +4||Top||10-31||Win||100||127 h 12 m||Show|
25* MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers +4
This is a great time to 'buy low' on the San Francisco 49ers. The entire world, including myself, were on them last week. I had them +2.5 and they closed -5.5 against the Cardinals, an 8-point adjustment. But they fell flat on their faces and turned it over three times in a lackluster 17-31 loss.
Now the 49ers will have be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week. They will have no problem getting back up off the mat to face a division rival in the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football. Especially with all the headlines the Rams are making of late with all the moves they are making to try and win a Super Bowl.
Speaking of falling flat on their faces, the Rams lost 16-28 as a 7-point home favorite to the Tennessee Titans last week. They didn't have Von Miller for that game and may not have him this game, either. And too much is being made of the trade for Odell Beckham Jr, who has been a cancer everywhere he has gone. The bigger news is losing Robert Woods to a season-ending ACL injury in practice on Friday. He has been a reliable receiver for this team for years under Sean McVay. Odell is questionable to play Monday as well and won't be that effective even if he does.
The 49ers are simply way better than their 3-5 record would indicate. They are outgaining teams by 27.5 yards per game despite not having Jimmy G for a couple games. They outgain their opponents by 0.8 yards per play which is one of the better margins in the NFL, averaging 6.3 per play on offense and giving up 5.5 per play on defense. Jimmy G and George Kittle are both back healthy, and he has plenty of weapons now to get the ball to in the underrated Deebo Samuel plus Brandon Ayuk.
Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers simply own McVay and the Rams. The 49ers are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings winning outright as underdogs all three times they were in the dog role. The Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a losing record. San Francisco is 33-13 ATS in its last 46 Monday games. Los Angeles is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing 200 or fewer yards last game. The Rams are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after winning five or six of their last seven games coming in. Bet the 49ers Monday.
|11-14-21||Panthers +10.5 v. Cardinals||Top||34-10||Win||100||99 h 2 m||Show|
20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +10.5
This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Arizona Cardinals. They have the best record in the NFL at 8-1. And they have gone 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. That includes their shocking upset of the 49ers.
The world, including myself, was on the 49ers in that game and got great line value. The 49ers got bet up to 5.5-point favorites. They failed to show up and had some critical turnovers. And the Cardinals rallied behind their backups without Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins and AJ Green. Colt McCoy had a career game.
I always like fading teams after a big performance like that when they were missing key players because it's tough to repeat. And it's uncertain whether Murray, Hopkins or Green will be back this week as they are all questionable. Either way, I don't think you are going to find better than 10.5 on the Panthers later on in the week.
This line indicated that Murray is playing at a minimum. But I don't think it matters who is under center, the Panthers will cover. Their season is on the line here at 4-5 with a chance to get back to .500. And as bad as Sam Darnold has been, I think PJ Walker might actually be an upgrade at quarterback.
The team has lost faith in Darnold and the Panthers should rally around Walker just as the Cardinals did with McCoy last week. Christian McCaffrey finally returned to the lineup last week and should be even better this week as he is another week healthier.
Carolina has an elite defense that can keep them in this game for four quarters. The Panthers rank 2nd in the NFL in total defense giving up just 293.1 yards per game. They also rank 2nd in giving up just 5.0 yards per play. They will lean on this defense and McCaffrey to keep it close with Walker playing a mistake-free game as well and a game plan that fits his dual-threat ability, an added element the Cardinals are going to have to prepare for that they wouldn't have had to with Darnold. The Cardinals rank 31st in the NFL in giving up nearly 5 yards per carry, so this is a great matchup for the Panthers.
This just feels like the ultimate flat spot for the Cardinals. They just played a stretch of six games against the Rams, 49ers (twice), Browns, Packers and Texans. They are coming off that huge divisional win over the 49ers with their backs against the wall. Now they have a road game at Seattle on deck next week. They won't be able to get up emotionally for this Panthers team that has lost five of their last six. Teams simply cannot be max motivated every week.
Arizona is 1-16 ATS in its last 17 games as a favorite of 7.5 to 14 points. Carolina is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after going under the total in its previous game. The Panthers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games. Carolina is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as a road underdog. The Cardinals are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games as home favorites. Carolina is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Panthers Sunday.
|11-14-21||Bucs v. Washington Football Team +10||19-29||Win||100||6 h 44 m||Show|
15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington +10
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Washington Football Team this week. They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and now find themselves catching double-digits for the first time all season. They will return from their bye highly motivated for a victory and to take on the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs.
Washington has lost four in a row but deserved to win a couple of those games at the very least. They didn't deserve to beat Kansas City, but they actually outgained the other three teams they lost to. They outgained the Packers by 126 yards, the Broncos by 69 yards and the Saints by 4 yards.
Tampa Bay has been suspect on the road this season. The Bucs are 0-4 ATS in road games with upset losses to the Rams and Saints. They only beat the Eagles by 6 and the Patriots by 2, failing to cover as bigger favorites. Now they are being asked to go on the road and beat Washington by double-digits, which is asking too much.
That's especially the case with all the players the Bucs are missing on offense. They will be without both Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown this week. Chris Godwin is also questionable. So this bye week didn't really get the Bucs any healthier than they were going into it.
Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Tampa Bay) - that is outgaining opponents by 0.75 or more yards per play, after gaining 400 or more total yards on average in their last three games are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Washington wants revenge from a 31-23 playoff loss to the Bucs last season. Ron Rivera is 27-10 ATS following a road loss in all games as a head coach. The Bucs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as road favorites. The underdog is 8-1-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take Washington Sunday.
|11-14-21||Browns +2.5 v. Patriots||7-45||Loss||-102||6 h 44 m||Show|
15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Browns +2.5
The Browns were as healthy as they have been in a long time last week. It showed when they beat the Bengals 41-16 on the road in a dominant effort. Their secondary is finally healthy, and the offense showed what it could do without Odell Beckham Jr., continuing to play better without him as a distraction. I think their solid play carries over into this week against the Patriots.
I believe the Browns are the better team in this matchup and should not be underdogs. And it's a good time to 'sell high' on the Patriots after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. Mac Jones gets a lot of love but it's not like he's been that great this season with a 10-to-7 TD/INT ratio.
The Patriots need to be able to run the ball to be successful. But they'll be up against an elite Cleveland front seven that can stop the run. The Browns rank 3rd in the NFL against the run giving up just 84.8 yards per game. They are 2nd in the NFL in giving up just 3.5 yards per carry. New England will be without top running back Damian Harris for this one as well, putting more pressure on Jones to make plays.
Like I said, this Browns secondary is healthy now and made life miserable on Joe Burrow last week. I think this Cleveland defense will shut down the Patriots as well. The Browns average 160 rushing yards per game and have proven they can still run it successfully even without Nick Chubb.
The Patriots give up 109 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry against teams that normally average 98 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry. I don't think they are that good against the run, they just haven't played many great running teams. This will be their toughest test yet trying to stop the run.
Home-field advantage has been non-existent for the Patriots this season. They are actually 1-4 SU at home with their only win coming against the lowly New York Jets. The Browns are 3-1 ATS on the road with their only non-cover coming in a huge comeback win by the Chargers, 47-42.
New England is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. excellent passing teams that average 7.5 or more yards per attempt. Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games. The Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Patriots are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Roll with the Browns Sunday.
|11-11-21||Ravens -7.5 v. Dolphins||10-22||Loss||-100||9 h 45 m||Show|
15* Ravens/Dolphins AFC ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -7.5
The Baltimore Ravens have won six of their last seven games overall and should be bigger favorites over the lowly Miami Dolphins tonight. The Ravens always seem to get better as the season goes on. And they are coming off a misleading win over the Vikings last week.
The Ravens outgained the Vikings by 182 yards last week and should have won by more. But they gave up a kickoff return TD which is the only reason it was even close and the only reason they did not cover. They were also -2 in turnovers. That misleading final I think actually has them undervalued this week.
Baltimore should still be fresh even coming off an OT game because they had a bye week prior to the Minnesota game. They face a Miami Dolphins team that will be playing for a 10th consecutive week, making this short week even tougher on them. I don't expect them to handle it well, especially with QB Tua Tagovailoa doubtful for this one.
The Dolphins are just 2-7 SU & 3-6 ATS this season. They beat the worst team in the NFL in the Texans 17-9 last week despite just 262 total yards with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. Their other win was a misleading 17-16 win at New England in the opener in which they should have lost while getting outgained by 134 yards. The Dolphins are getting outgained by nearly 100 yards per game on the season.
Baltimore is 15-1 ATS in its last 16 road games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 375 or more yards per game in the second half of the season. The Ravens are 15-4 ATS in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. Baltimore is 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings with seven wins by 14 points or more. Take the Ravens Thursday.
|11-08-21||Bears v. Steelers -6.5||27-29||Loss||-105||150 h 58 m||Show|
15* Bears/Steelers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -6.5
The Pittsburgh Steelers have turned around their season the only way they know how. There's a reason they have never finished worse than 8-8 under Mike Tomlin because he gets the most out of his players even when things look grim. And they definitely looked grim after a 1-3 start.
But the Steelers have since gone 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS. They beat the Broncos 27-19 at home, the Seahawks 23-20 at home and the Browns 15-10 on the road in upset fashion. They were coming off their bye week heading into that Cleveland game and should have won by more.
They had 370 yards against a good Browns defense and held them to 304 yards, outgaining them by 64 yards. But they had to settle for too many field goals. They should still be fresh after that bye and have one of the best looking injury reports in the NFL. And Big Ben is finding his groove now thanks in large part to a running game that has come around with 115 or more rushing yards in three consecutive games. This offense is a dangerous one when it has balance.
Now Big Ben should be able to pick apart a Chicago defense that gets shredded every week. After giving up 38 points and 408 yards to the Bucs two weeks ago in a 38-3 loss, the Bears came back last week and gave up 467 yards and 8.6 yards per play to the 49ers last week in a 33-22 loss that wasn't even as close as the final score.
This is a bad combination for the Bears having a leaky defense and a terrible offense. They managed just 324 yards and 4.8 yards per play against the 49ers. They were held to 311 yards against the Bucs, 277 to the Packers, 252 to the Raiders, 373 to the Lions and 47 to the Browns in their previous five games. Justin Fields just isn't a very good passer, and missing David Montgomery has hurt this team.
Stopping Chicago's rushing attack will be key, and the Steelers only give up 106 rushing yards per game and are proving they have one of the best defenses in the NFL yet again this year. The Steelers are primed for one of the best defensive performances of the season against a Chicago offense that ranks dead last (32nd) in averaging 4.4 yards per play on offense. The next-worst team is at 4.8 yards per play.
Chicago is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS on the road this season, scoring just 10.8 points per game and getting outscored by 16.0 points per game. The Bears are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games following a loss. Chicago is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games following a home loss. The Bears are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Chicago is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog. Bet the Steelers Monday.
|11-07-21||Cardinals v. 49ers +2.5||Top||31-17||Loss||-100||122 h 28 m||Show|
25* NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers +2.5
Sunday Update: I got 49ers +2.5 early in the week. I would still bet them as a 25* up to -3 even if Murray plays due to their other injuries and the situation. Lower your bet if you can only get -3.5 or worse.
The San Francisco 49ers want revenge from a 17-10 road loss at Arizona a couple weeks ago on October 10th. They deserved to win that game as they had the ball in Arizona territory the entire game even with Trey Lance at QB. They outgained the Cardinals by 34 yards and held them to just 304 yards in that game but managed just 10 points.
Now the 49ers have Jimmy G back at QB, and he is coming off his best game of the season. The 49ers beat the Bears 33-22 last week in what was an even bigger blowout than the final scored showed. The 49ers had 467 total yards and outgained the Bears by 143 yards and didn't punt once. They outgained the Bears 8.6 yards per play to 4.8 yards per play in that game.
The Cardinals are overvalued due to their 7-1 start. I successfully faded them with the Packers last week in a game Green Bay won outright despite missing several key players. Now it's the Cardinals who could be missing several key players. They are already without JJ Watt and C Rodney Hudson, and they could be without both QB Kyler Murray and WR De'Andre Hopkins, who are both questionable. If Murray were to sit the 49ers would definitely be favored. But I like them either way.
Plays on underdogs or PK (San Francisco) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 59-29 (67%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Arizona is 1-8 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. It's regression time for this team that has overachieved in the first half this season. The underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The 49ers are outgaining opponents 6.1 yards per play to 5.2 yards per play, which is one of the best YPP differentials in the NFL this season and shows they are better than their 3-4 record would indicate. Bet the 49ers Sunday.
|11-07-21||Chargers -1 v. Eagles||27-24||Win||100||122 h 8 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Chargers -1
This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Chargers. They went into their bye week coming off a 34-6 loss to the Ravens and many expected them to come out with their hair on fire against the Patriots. Instead, they also lost to the Patriots 24-27 at home as 3.5-point favorites.
Now we are getting the Chargers at a discount. This team is much better than they have shown in their last two games. Remember, they were 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their previous three games beating the Chiefs 30-24 on the road, the Raiders 28-14 at home and the Browns 47-42 at home, and that was back when the Browns were healthier. And the Chargers should still be fresh after having their bye two weeks ago, and they are as healthy as any team in the NFL.
Conversely, it's time 'sell high' on the Philadelphia Eagles. They are coming off a 44-6 victory over the Lions last week in the biggest blowout of the week. They did so with just 350 total yards as the Lions just gave that game away. It was also a flat spot for Jared Goff and the Lions after nearly upsetting the Rams the previous week. The Eagles took advantage and looked better than they really were.
Remember, the Eagles looked awful the previous two weeks against the Bucs and Raiders. They were outgained by 186 yards by the Bucs in their misleading 22-28 loss. They were outgained by 84 yards by the Raiders in their 22-33 road loss in which they had three extra days to prepare after playing on Thursday the previous week. Philadelphia's three wins have come against Atlanta, Carolina and Detroit. They aren't very good, and the Chargers are the better of these two teams and we're getting them at basically a pick 'em price.
Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Philadelphia) - after allowing 6 points or less last game against an opponent that is coming off a loss by 3 points or less are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS since 1983.
Los Angeles is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 road games following a loss by 3 points or less. The Chargers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. NFC opponents. Los Angeles is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games overall. The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Los Angeles is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. Roll with the Chargers Sunday.
|11-07-21||Vikings v. Ravens -5.5||Top||31-34||Loss||-110||119 h 4 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Baltimore Ravens -5.5
I love the spot for the Baltimore Ravens this week. They are coming off their bye week and a terrible loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. They will come back refreshed and highly motivated for a victory out of their bye. It was definitely a more productive bye than most teams because you know they were focused off that 17-41 loss to the Bengals.
That loss to the Bengals was the aberration, not the norm. The Ravens had gone 5-0 in their previous five games with the last three victories over the Broncos, Colts and Chargers coming by a combined 50 points. Look for them to get back to their dominant ways against the Minnesota Vikings this week.
The Vikings blew a golden opportunity to get back in the playoff race with their 16-20 home loss to Cooper Rush and the Dallas Cowboys last week. The Cowboys outgained the Vikings by 141 yards behind a 300-yard passing effort from Rush. Kirk Cousins was awful as the Vikings went just 1-of-13 on 3rd down and their only play call seemed to be a screen play.
Cousins cannot stretch the field, and the Ravens play man-to-man defense mostly that is going to take away those short routes. The Ravens also have the answer for Dalvin Cook. They give up just 86 rushing yards per game as one of the top run defenses in the NFL. And Lamar Jackson and company should have a field day against this Minnesota defense that just gave up 418 yards to Rush and the Cowboys.
The Ravens are scoring 26.7 points per game and averaging 417.6 yards per game this season. They rank 4th in the NFL at 6.2 yards per play on offense. They should be able to do whatever they want to on offense, especially run the football against a Vikings defense that gives up 4.6 yards per carry on the season.
Baltimore is 15-3 ATS in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. They seem to get better as the season goes on under John Harbaugh. The Vikings are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall. The Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the Ravens Sunday.
|11-04-21||Jets +10.5 v. Colts||Top||30-45||Loss||-108||53 h 3 m||Show|
20* Jets/Colts AFC Thursday No-Brainer on New York +10.5
The Indianapolis Colts can't be favored by double-digit against almost anyone. Carson Wentz cannot be trusted to make the right throws. Their best bet it to run it 40 times a game with Johnathan Tayor, but they refuse to do it.
The Colts are coming off yet another devastating overtime loss to the Tennessee Titans in a game that would have gotten them back in the AFC South race. Now they are tired on a short week here and having to face a New York Jets team that is undervalued and coming in with confidence and feeling good about themselves.
The Jets beat the Bengals 34-31 last week as 11.5-point underdogs and should have won by even more. They racked up 511 total yards against the Bengals and held them to just 318 yards, outgaining them by nearly 200 yards. But they did commit three turnovers to keep the Bengals in the game.
Still, no starting debut for a QB could have gone any better than the one for Mike White against the Bengals. White went 37-of-45 passing for 405 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. Michael Carter emerged as the lead back as a rookie, rushing for 77 yards and a score while also catching nine balls for 95 yards. This young team is looking forward to this opportunity on a National TV stage to showcase what they are capable of now with White running the show.
While the injury news is looking up on the Jets' front, the Colts suffered some more key injuries against the Titans last week. T.Y. Hilton suffered a concussion and left the game and will be out for this one. Wentz was terrible after he left. DT Tyquon Lewis suffered a season-ending knee injury as well.
Plays on road underdogs or PK (NY Jets) - after failing to cover the spread in four or five of their last six games against an opponent that covered the spread in three of their last four are 24-6 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as home favorites. Bet the Jets Thursday.
|11-01-21||Giants v. Chiefs -9.5||17-20||Loss||-110||98 h 33 m||Show|
15* Giants/Chiefs ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -9.5
This line opened at Chiefs -13 this week and has been bet all the way down to -9.5. It's now time to pull the trigger on the Chiefs in a game I fully expect them to win by double-digits. This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Chiefs and 'sell high' spot on the Giants.
The Chiefs are coming off a shocking 27-3 loss to the Tennessee Titans last week. They will be playing with their hair on fire after that embarrassing defeat. The Giants are coming off an upset win over the Panthers 25-3 last week. They will be feeling a little fat and happy after that performance.
The Chiefs have owned the NFC East this season. They beat the Eagles 42-30 on the road and Washington 31-13 on the road. The Giants aren't better than either of those two teams. Now the Chiefs get to face an NFC East team at home here and should crush it. Daniel Jones won't be able to match Patrick Mahomes score for score, just as Taylor Heineke and Jalen Hurts came up short as well.
The Giants are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. AFC opponents. Andy Reid is 8-1 ATS in Monday Night Football games as the coach of Kansas City. New York is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing less than 15 points last game. Bet the Chiefs Monday.
|10-31-21||Cowboys v. Vikings -2.5||Top||20-16||Loss||-110||74 h 1 m||Show|
20* Cowboys/Vikings NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Minnesota -2.5
I was going to be on the Vikings before the news that Dak Prescott is unlikely to play came out Thursday. And now I'm jumping on this 2.5-point spread thinking if Prescott doesn't play this line will close a lot higher. And I like the Vikings to win by a field goal or more either way so it will be a bonus if he doesn't play.
The Vikings are 3-3 this season but very close to being 6-0. They lost in OT on the road to the Bengals after a fumble when they were in FG range to win. They missed an extra point and a short FG at the buzzer in a 33-34 loss at Arizona, and that loss looks a lot better now with the Cardinals off to a 7-0 start. And they scored on their opening drive against the Browns but didn't score again in their 14-7 loss, and that was a healthy Browns team that was playing well.
It's time to 'sell high' on the Cowboys. They are the only team in the NFL that has covered every spread with a perfect 6-0 ATS record. But they have had a lot of turnover luck go their way as they have forced at least two turnovers in every game and 14 in six games overall. That is unsustainable.
The Cowboys still have a terrible defense that will get exposed here against this elite Minnesota offense. Dallas gives up 381 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season. They rank 29th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Vikings are 17th in in defensive yards per play at 5.6 to compare.
This Minnesota offense averages 24.5 points and 414 yards per games to go along with 5.9 yards per play. Dalvin Cook is back in the fold, and Kirk Cousins is playing well. He is completing 69.5% of his passes with a 13-to-2 TD/INT ratio. And he won't have to try and match Dak Prescott score for score if he doesn't play.
Minnesota was a dominant home team under Mike Zimmer prior to the last two years due to the design of the stadium. It is loud and very tough for opponents. But not having fans last year makes us throw last year out. And they are 2-1 at home this season with their only loss to the Browns.
Minnesota is 26-11 ATS in its last 37 home games after a win by 6 points or less. Dallas is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games with a line of +3 to -3. The Vikings are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Vikings are 5-1 ATS in the last six home meetings. Take the Vikings Sunday.
|10-31-21||Titans v. Colts -113||Top||34-31||Loss||-113||95 h 3 m||Show|
25* AFC South GAME OF THE YEAR on Indianapolis Colts ML -113
The Colts will be out for revenge from a 25-16 road loss at Tennessee in their first meeting this season. They have been a different team since that loss. They have gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Their only loss came in overtime against the Ravens on the road after blowing a 19-point lead.
They beat the Dolphins by 10 on the road, the Texans by 28 at home and the 49ers by 12 on the road. Carson Wentz is playing some of the best football of his career, and the Colts are getting healthier by the week.
I think this is a massive letdown spot for the Titans. They are coming off back-to-back upset wins over the Bills and Chiefs. That 27-3 win over the broken Chiefs last week has them overvalued. The Titans could be missing both starting tackles on the offensive line and their injury list is ugly.
Slowing down Derrick Henry is the key to slowing down the Titans. The Colts have a pretty good run defense in giving up just 111 rushing yards per game. The Titans have a weak defense this season that gives up nearly 380 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play.
The Titans are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. The Colts are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games after two straight wins by 10 points or more. Tennessee is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog. The Colts are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Indianapolis is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings. Bet the Colts Sunday.
|10-31-21||Rams v. Texans +14.5||38-22||Loss||-109||67 h 35 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Texans +14.5
It's time to 'buy low' on the Houston Texans this week after losing six straight and going 1-4 ATS in their five games since losing QB Tyrod Taylor to injury. The Texans looked great with Taylor in the first 1.5 games at QB, and now he is expected to make his much-anticipated return from a hamstring injury this week.
We'll gladly take the 14.5 points at home with the Texans. They were last seen at home nearly upsetting the Patriots as 8-point dogs in a 22-25 loss even with Davis Mills at QB. The other three games were all tough road losses to the Bills, Colts and Cardinals. Having Taylor back will allow them to stay within this massive spread against the Rams.
Los Angeles was in a dog fight with the Detroit Lions last week in a 28-19 home win. That's a Detroit team that is not any better than the Texans with Taylor. And it was an emotional game for Matthew Stafford against his former team. Now this is a letdown spot for the Rams, who probably feel like they just have to show up to win. It's also a 1:00 EST game which will be a 10:00 AM body clock game for the Rams.
Taylor is completing 70.5% of his passes for 416 yards with a 3-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his six quarters of action this season. He has also rushed for 55 yards and a score. He just brings a much needed dimension to this offense that Davis Mills lacked. He will keep the offense on the field for longer stretches, and that will help this defense get some rest, which it hasn't had much of with Mills under center.
The Rams are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following two or more consecutive wins. The Texans are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring 14 points or fewer in two straight games. Los Angeles is 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with the Texans Sunday.
|10-28-21||Packers +6.5 v. Cardinals||Top||24-21||Win||100||25 h 53 m||Show|
20* Packers/Cardinals FOX No-Brainer on Green Bay +6.5
This line has gotten out of hand with the news that Devante Adams and Allen Lazard are out for the Packers. It has ballooned from Packers +3 to Packers +6.5, which is too big of an adjustment. There's now value to pull the trigger on the Packers Thursday night.
Quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers are a dime a dozen. He is capable of making his receivers better than they are. And I think he'll welcome the challenge here of trying to hand the Arizona Cardinals their first loss of the season without those two. Plus, the Packers are 6-0 the last three seasons without Adams and scoring 32.8 points per game, so they have had no problem scoring in his absence.
The Cardinals are already overvalued due to their perfect 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS record this season. It's time to 'sell high' on them here Thursday night against one of the best teams in the NFL in the Packers. You could argue that Rodgers is the best quarterback in the league, and getting him as this big of a dog is very enticing.
Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Arizona) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent that is coming off four straight games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS since 1983.
Green Bay is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. Arizona is 1-11 ATS in its last 11 home games after allowing 200 or fewer yards last game. The Packers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. The Cardinals are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games as home favorites. Bet the Packers Thursday.
|10-25-21||Saints v. Seahawks +4||13-10||Win||100||11 h 7 m||Show|
15* Saints/Seahawks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Seattle +4
The Seattle Seahawks are playing to save their season tonight. At 2-4 they need this win to keep their playoff hopes alive. I think we get a big effort from them in front of a hostile crowd in Seattle.
Geno Smith has actually looked pretty good in replacing Russell Wilson. The Seahawks had a chance to beat the Rams even without Wilson in the second half. They also had a chance to beat the Steelers in a 20-23 road loss. Smith is completing 67.3% of his passes with two touchdowns and one interception.
I think the Saints are getting too much respect from the books due to coming off their bye week. But you just can't trust Jameis Winston to go on the road and cover a 4-point spread here in a hostile environment in Seattle.
The Saints have terrible stats this season. They are averaging just 295.2 yards per game on offense and giving up 354.0 yards per game on defense, so they are getting outgained by 58.8 yards per game. They are also getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play. The Seahawks have good numbers from a YPP perspective, outgaining opponents by 0.4 YPP on the season.
The Seahawks are 34-15-4 ATS in their last 53 games following a SU loss. Seattle is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games as underdogs. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Roll with the Seahawks Monday.
|10-24-21||Texans +18 v. Cardinals||5-31||Loss||-102||23 h 12 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Texans +18
It's time to 'sell high' on the Arizona Cardinals. They're the only remaining unbeaten team in the NFL at 6-0. They are coming off three straight huge wins over the Rams, 49ers and Browns. This is the ultimate letdown spot for them with the perceived worst team in the NFL in the Houston Texans coming to town.
Plus, the Cardinals have another huge game with the Green Bay Packers on deck Thursday. They will be looking ahead to that game. They will also be playing this game just to get a win and get out of the game healthy for that Packers game. They won't be looking to run up the score.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Texans after five consecutive losses. I actually like what I have seen from this Houston offense the last two weeks despite the scoreboard results. They had 360 yards and outgained the Patriots by 8 yards two weeks ago in their 22-25 loss. They had 353 yards against the Colts last week, but just 3 points, which should be impossible. That misleading 31-3 loss where they were only outgained by 35 yards has this number inflated with an 18-point spread this week.
Arizona is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. They got to play against two banged-up offenses the last two weeks in the 49ers and Browns. The Cardinals are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games as home favorites. Roll with the Texans Sunday.
|10-24-21||Eagles +3 v. Raiders||Top||22-33||Loss||-107||98 h 12 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia Eagles +3
I think most the country was shocked to see the Raiders win 34-24 at Denver as 5-point underdogs last week. With all the John Gruden turmoil surrounding the team it was hard to know what to expect, so I stayed away from that game.
But teams always seem to have a big effort in that first game with a new head coach. The Raiders rallied around each other. They also got some help with four turnovers from the Broncos. It was an injury-ravaged Broncos team that still managed 421 yards against their soft defense.
I think it's time to fade the Raiders this week in their 2nd game back without Gruden. They won't be nearly as motivated as they were last week. The motivated team will be the Eagles, who have lost four of their last five and are playing for their season. But you won't find a harder 5-game stretch all season than the one Philadelphia just faced.
The five games came against the 49ers, Cowboys, Chiefs, Panthers and Bucs. They gave the Bucs all they wanted last Thursday in a 22-28 home loss. And now the Eagles have had an extra three days to get ready for this game. They come in as healthy as they have been all season. Jalen Hurts and all that speed on offense should shred this terrible Raiders defense that is giving up 24 PPG.
The Raiders are 20-42-1 ATS in their last 63 games as favorites. Bet the Eagles Sunday.
|10-24-21||Panthers -3 v. Giants||3-25||Loss||-100||20 h 46 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Carolina Panthers -3
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Carolina Panthers. They are coming off three straight one-score losses against some pretty good competition in the Cowboys, Eagles and Vikings. Now they are only 3-point favorites against the lowly New York Giants.
The Giants are off to yet another 1-5 start this season. The last two losses weren't even close as they lost by 24 to the Cowboys and 27 to the Rams. No team has been hit harder by injuries than the Giants. They have 22 players on the injury report with 17 out and five questionable. They are missing a ton of weapons on offense, and Daniel Jones isn't right, either.
The Panthers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games. The Giants are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 home games. The Giants are an easy team to figure out. They consistently get too much respect at home and not enough on the road. They have almost zero home-field advantage with the way the fans feel about this team right now. Take the Panthers Sunday.
|10-21-21||Broncos v. Browns OVER 40.5||14-17||Loss||-115||11 h 16 m||Show|
15* Broncos/Browns NFL Total DOMINATOR on OVER 40.5
This is a very low total for any NFL game. But it's definitely low considering the circumstances with the short week that always favors the offenses with less time to prepare. And the fact that these teams aren't familiar with one another being a non-divisional game.
I know both teams have a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball, especially the Browns on offense. But I think Case Keenum isn't that much of a downgrade from Baker Mayfield, especially the Mayfield we saw last week on a bum shoulder.
Cleveland's defense is terrible and tired. The Browns gave up 47 points and 493 yards to the Chargers two weeks ago and another 37 points to the Cardinals last week. The Broncos haven't been much better of late defensively. They gave up 27 points and 391 yards to the Steelers two weeks ago and 34 points and 446 yards to the Raiders last week.
The OVER is 4-1 in Browns last five home games. The OVER is 5-1 in Browns last six against AFC opponents. The OVER is 4-1 in Broncos last five games following a loss. Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.
|10-18-21||Bills v. Titans +5.5||Top||31-34||Win||100||145 h 42 m||Show|
20* Bills/Titans ESPN No-Brainer on Tennessee +5.5
This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Buffalo Bills. They are getting massive respect from oddsmakers and the betting public right now after going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with four straight blowout victories.
The Bills are coming off a 38-20 road win over the Kansas City Chiefs. That was a huge revenge game for them after losing twice to the Chiefs last season, including getting eliminated by them in the playoffs. Now they are fat and happy and feeling good about themselves, making them ripe for the picking. They won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Titans as they were the Chiefs.
The Titans have quietly gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last three games overall. They continue to be one of the most underrated teams in the NFL year after year. That was on display last year when they beat the Bills 42-16 at home as 3-point underdogs. Now they are catching 5.5 points at home in the rematch.
The Bills have been forcing turnovers at an alarming rate, which is unsustainable. They have forced three or more turnovers in four consecutive games and 15 turnovers overall in those four games. Tennessee isn't a team that turns it over much as they are a run-heavy team, and Ryan Tannehill does a good job of taking care of the ball. They have only committed seven turnovers in five games this season.
Plays against favorites (Buffalo) - with a great offense that average 385 or more yards per game, after gaining 450 or more yards per game in their last three games are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Titans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine Monday games. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet the Titans Monday.
|10-17-21||Cowboys v. Patriots +4||Top||35-29||Loss||-107||117 h 3 m||Show|
20* Cowboys/Patriots Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on New England +4
It's time to 'sell high' on the Dallas Cowboys. They are the only remaining unbeaten team against the spread at 5-0 ATS this season. They have won three straight home games against mediocre teams coming in.
The Cowboys haven't fared as well on the road. They were fortunate to beat the Chargers 20-17 as the refs basically handed them that victory. And they lost to the Bucs on the road in the opener despite forcing four turnovers. And their turnover and injury luck has been unbelievable this year. Players on opposing teams keep going down mid-game, and they have already forced 12 turnovers and at least two turnovers in every game, which is unsustainable.
The Patriots are just 2-3 this season and thus it's time to 'buy low' on them. Two of their three losses came by a combined 3 points. The other was a misleading 13-28 loss to the Saints in which they were -3 in turnovers and outgained the Saints by 48 yards. Keep in mind they were last seen at home nearly upsetting the defending champion Tampa Bay Bucs, hitting the upright on a potential game-winning field goal in a 17-19 loss.
Dallas is only outgaining opponents by 0.2 yards per play. They have an elite offense at 6.7 yards per play, but a terrible defense giving up 6.5 yards per play. To compare, the Patriots have an elite defense in giving up 5.3 yards per play. And Mac Jones is primed to have one of his best games of the season against this Dallas defense.
Bill Belichick is 14-4 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of New England. The Patriots are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games as home underdogs of 7 points or fewer. The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as road favorites. New England is 39-19-3 ATS in its last 61 games as an underdog overall. Roll with the Patriots Sunday.
|10-17-21||Cardinals v. Browns -2.5||Top||37-14||Loss||-115||125 h 9 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Browns -2.5
The Arizona Cardinals are overvalued due to being the last remaining team in the NFL at 5-0. We'll 'sell high' on them this week. They should have lost to the Vikings and they should have lost to the 49ers based on the numbers in the 49ers games and the missed kicks by the Vikings. So they really should be 3-2.
Cleveland is very close to being the 5-0 team. Their only two losses both came on the road to two of the best teams in the NFL in the Chiefs and Chargers. They blew a 29-20 4th quarter lead to the Chiefs and a 27-13 3rd quarter lead to the Chargers. In fact, they became the 1st team in NFL history to lose a game when scoring 40 points and having more than 500 yards of offense in that Chargers defeat.
The Browns are 2-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 15.0 points per game and outgaining them by 212 yards per game. They are outgaining opponents by 118.8 yards per game on the season. They are outgaining opponents by 1.1 yards per play, averaging 6.5 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.4 yards per play on defense. To compare, Arizona is only outgaining opponents by 0.6 yards per play.
The matchup is a great one for this Cleveland offense. They average 188 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry. Well, Arizona gives up 139 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry. And keep in mind Kyler Murray suffered an arm injury against the 49ers last week and they managed just 17 points as the offense looked out of sync all game. He isn't 100% coming into this one.
Cleveland is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. NFC opponents. The Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss. The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record. They will suffer their first loss of the season to Cleveland in this one. Take the Browns Sunday.
|10-17-21||Vikings v. Panthers -1||Top||34-28||Loss||-110||123 h 54 m||Show|
20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Carolina Panthers -1
This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Carolina Panthers. They are coming off back-to-back losses to the Cowboys and Eagles. This is a 'circle the wagons' game as they are looking at is as a must-win at home with their next two games coming on the road. We'll get one of their best efforts of the season.
That should be good enough to win and cover here as a 1-point home favorite against the Minnesota Vikings. This is a Vikings team that is just 2-3 this season with one of its wins coming over the Lions, and the other coming against a Seahawks team that is clearly not as good as everyone thought coming into the season. And they needed a last-second field goal to beat the Lions.
The Panthers should be 4-1 instead of 3-2. They deserved to lose at Dallas, which is proving to be one of the best teams in the NFL. But they blew a late lead to the Eagles last week in a game they were in control throughout. And they dominated their first three games of the season, outscoring the Jets, Saints and Texans by a combined score of 69-30.
The Panthers have the numbers of an elite team. They are outgaining opponents by 107 yards per game on the season behind a defense that is giving up just 256 yards per game. And the offense is improved under Sam Darnold and offensive mastermind Joe Brady calling the plays.
Carolina is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after playing its last game at home. Minnesota is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games overall. Currently as of this writing, Minnesota is a 1-point favorite, and the Vikings are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games as favorites. The Panthers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as underdogs. Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss. Bet the Panthers Sunday.
|10-17-21||Texans +10 v. Colts||3-31||Loss||-110||114 h 38 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Texans +10
The Houston Texans impressed me last week in their 22-25 home loss to the New England Patriots as 8-point underdogs. They actually outgained the Patriots in the game, but missed kicks cost them the win. Davis Mills had his best game of the season, completing 21 of 29 passes for 312 yards and three touchdowns, and I expect him to build off of that performance.
The Indianapolis Colts cannot be trusted as 10-point favorites here. They are 1-4 on the season with their lone win coming against the hapless Miami Dolphins. And the spot is a terrible one for the Colts. They blew a 22-3 lead on Monday Night Football to the Ravens, eventually losing 25-31 (OT).
It's going to be hard for them to get back up off the mat after they did almost everything right in that game to win. Carson Wentz finally played to his potential, but it still wasn't enough. And now they are on a short week after an overtime game, so they won't be fully recovered in time for the Texans. And the injuries are mounting up for the Colts with 12 players out and another 6 questionable.
This has been a very closely-contested division rivalry. In fact, 14 of the last 15 meetings have been decided by 9 points or less. That makes for a 14-1 system backing the Texans pertaining to this 10-point spread. The Colts are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as home favorites. The road team is 12-3-2 ATS in the last 17 meetings. Take the Texans Sunday.
|10-14-21||Bucs v. Eagles +7||28-22||Win||100||49 h 59 m||Show|
15* Bucs/Eagles NFC ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia +7
The Philadelphia Eagles have played a brutal schedule thus far of Atlanta, San Francisco, Dallas, Kansas City and Carolina. It's safe to say they are battle-tested and ready for this challenge against the Tampa Bay Bucs tonight.
The Eagles have put up tremendous numbers against that brutal schedule, and they are a grossly undervalued team right now. They are averaging 6.3 yards per play on offense and giving up only 5.2 yards per play on defense against teams that normally averaged 6.0 yards per play. So they are outgaining their opponents by 1.1 yards per play, which is one of the best numbers in the NFL.
The Bucs give up 5.9 yards per play against teams that normally averaged 5.7 yards per play, so they have a below-average defense this year. A big reason for that is they are missing several key players in the secondary. They are also without LB Lavonte David. Offensively, both Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski are questionable, and Tom Brady is battling an injured thumb.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Bucs off their 45-17 home win over the hapless Miami Dolphins last week. The Bucs haven't fared nearly as well on the road. They lost 24-34 to the Rams and barely escaped with a 19-17 win at New England in their two road games this season.
Plays against favorites (Tampa Bay) - with a great offense that average 385 or more yards per game, after gaining 450 or more yards per game in their last three games are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.
The Bucs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight Thursday games. Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a road favorite. The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six Thursday games. The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Bet the Eagles Thursday.
|10-11-21||Colts v. Ravens -7||Top||25-31||Loss||-100||130 h 48 m||Show|
20* Colts/Ravens ESPN No-Brainer on Baltimore -7
The Baltimore Ravens have found their groove since an opening loss to the Raiders. They have won three straight since including an upset victory over the Chiefs and a 23-7 road win at Denver. Now they will be playing just their 2nd home game of the season, and they are as healthy as they have been all year. They should get back to being the same old Ravens moving forward.
The Indianapolis Colts are a mess due to all their injuries. They are just 1-3 this season with their only win coming against a bad Miami Dolphins team playing with a backup QB last week. I think they are getting too much respect from oddsmakers because of that victory.
The Colts had previously lost their first three games to start the season. They lost 16-28 to the Seahawks, 24-27 to the Rams and 16-25 to the Titans. They were outgained in all three games, and this is probably going to be their stiffest test of the season on the road at the Ravens.
Baltimore has the numbers to match their 3-1 record. They outgained the Chiefs by 76 yards and had 481 yards of offense, they outgained the Lions by 102 yards and had 387 yards of offense, and they outgained the Broncos by 152 yards behind 406 yards of offense.
Frank Reich is 0-6 ATS vs. AFC North opponents as the coach of the Colts. Baltimore is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a losing record. They seem to just beat up on bad teams, and that should be the case here under the lights of Monday Night Football. Bet the Ravens Monday.
|10-10-21||Giants +7 v. Cowboys||20-44||Loss||-107||102 h 58 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Giants +7
The Dallas Cowboys are the only remaining team that is unbeaten ATS, going 4-0 ATS through their first four games. It's time to 'sell high' on the Cowboys now as 7-point home favorites over the division rival New York Giants.
While the Cowboys have an elite offense, their defense isn't nearly as good as it is getting credit for. They simply can't keep forcing turnovers at this rate. They have already forced 10 turnovers in four games. But they rank 30th in the NFL in giving up 6.4 yards per play this season.
The Giants have a sneaky good offense and a decent defense, giving up 5.9 yards per play. The Giants are 8th in the NFL at 6.2 yards per play, barely behind Dallas' 6.4 per play in 7th place. These teams are a lot closer than this line would indicate.
The Giants were coming off two losses to the Falcons and Washington by a combined 4 points before showing their resiliency last week, winning 27-21 at New Orleans. They had 485 total yards against a very good Saints defense, and Daniel Jones is playing the best football of his career this season. He is capable of matching the Cowboys score for score in this one.
The Giants are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games. New York is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 games as a road underdog. Joe Judge is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games vs. NFC opponents as the coach of New York. Roll with the Giants Sunday.
|10-10-21||Broncos v. Steelers -1||Top||19-27||Win||100||99 h 34 m||Show|
20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh Steelers -1
The Pittsburgh Steelers are in must-win mode now after a 1-3 start. Expect their best effort of the season when they host the Denver Broncos Sunday afternoon with their season essentially on the line. It should be enough to win and cover here as a short home favorite.
The Steelers were hampered by injuries in their losses to the Raiders and Bengals, who have both turned out to be very good teams. Their other loss came on the road against the Packers, which is expected. But remember, they upset the Bills in Week 1, so we know what they are capable of. Their four games have come against teams that are a combined 12-4 this season, so they have played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL. And they are getting healthier by the week.
It's time to fade the Denver Broncos, who are 3-1 this season while benefitting from playing one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. Their three wins came against the Giants, Jaguars and Jets. They got put in their place last week in a 7-23 home loss to the Ravens as Teddy Bridgewater was knocked out of the game with a concussion.
Bridgewater is questionable to return this week, and with this pick it doesn't really matter who starts for them, though getting Drew Lock again would be an added bonus. Injuries are really starting to pile up for the Broncos. They could be without as many as nine starters this week, who are either out, doubtful or questionable.
Mike Tomlin is 13-4 ATS after three or more consecutive ATS losses as the coach of the Steelers. It's time to 'buy low' on the Steelers this week as you will probably never get better value with them than you are here at home against the Broncos. Bet the Steelers Sunday.
|10-10-21||Packers v. Bengals +3||25-22||Push||0||99 h 34 m||Show|
15* Packers/Bengals Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cincinnati +3
The Cincinnati Bengals are greatly improved this season. They are off to a 3-1 start with their only loss coming 20-17 on the road to the Chicago Bears in a game in which they held the Bears to just 206 total yards and were -3 in turnovers.
The Bengals have beaten the Vikings, Steelers and Jaguars. Now they have extra time to prepare after beating the Jaguars last Thursday. Their defense is vastly improved this year, giving up just 18.8 points and 323.0 yards per game. And their offense is loaded with playmakers surrounding the underrated Joe Burrow, who continues to impress week after week.
The Packers are injury-ravaged right now, which is the biggest reason we are fading them. They are without LB Za'Darius Smith, T David Bakhtiari, and WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling. They have five other starters questionable in LB Preston Smith, CB Jaire Alexander, G Elgton Jenkins, LB Krys Barnes and CB Kevin King. Their issues at CB will particularly be a problem against Burrow and company.
The Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss. Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the Bengals Sunday.
|10-10-21||Eagles v. Panthers OVER 45||Top||21-18||Loss||-104||99 h 34 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Eagles/Panthers OVER 45
The Philadelphia Eagles are clearly an OVER team. They just combined for 62 points with the Dallas Cowboys and 72 points with the Kansas City Chiefs the last two weeks. They won't have any problem combining for 45-plus points with the Carolina Panthers this week.
The Eagles have an electric offense with Jalen Hurts and a ton of young skill talent. They are averaging 397.5 yards per game. But their defense has some significant injuries, and as a result they are giving up 26.5 PPG. This is the worst defense the Eagles have had in years.
The Panthers are coming alive in Joe Brady's offense in his second season as coordinator. They are averaging 387.5 yards per game this season behind the improved play of Sam Darnold, who already has five rushing touchdowns. He is completing 67.8% of his passes and averaging 8 yards per attempt.
Carolina's defense isn't as good as the season-long numbers would suggest. They played three of the worst offenses in the NFL to start the season in the Jets, Saints and Texans. But they met their match last week in a 28-36 loss to the Cowboys in a game that saw 64 combined points.
The OVER is 21-9 in Eagles last 30 games as road underdogs. The OVER is 33-16 in Eagles last 49 road games overall. The OVER is 34-17 in Panthers last 51 games after a game where 60 or more points were scored. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|10-10-21||Saints v. Washington Football Team +2||33-22||Loss||-103||99 h 33 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Washington +2
The New Orleans Saints are way overrated this season. They should not be road favorites over the Washington Football Team Sunday. This is a game I expect Washington to win outright, but we'll take the +2 for some insurance.
New Orleans is averaging just 276.8 yards per game on offense and giving up 349.3 yards per game on defense. They are getting outgained by nearly 75 yards per game. And it's not like they have played that difficult of a schedule. They can't figure out who their quarterback is as they are dealing with two below-average guys in Winston and Hill, and they have so many injuries right now on both sides of the ball.
Washington gutted out a 34-30 win in Atlanta last week despite missing two extra points and a two-point conversion chasing those two missed extra points. That's the type of win that will bring this team together, and Taylor Heineke is showing he's not a downgrade at all at quarterback. He is completing 69.5% of his passes with an 8-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 87 yards and a score as a dual-threat.
Ron Rivera is 49-21 ATS after playing his last game on the road as a head coach. Rivera is 10-2 ATS vs. teams who commit 0.75 or fewer turnovers per game as a head coach. The Football Team is 8-1 in their last nine games after gaining more than 350 yards in their previous game. The Football Team is 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win. The Football Team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Roll with Washington Sunday.
|10-07-21||Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 54.5||Top||26-17||Win||100||34 h 56 m||Show|
20* Rams/Seahawks NFC West Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 54.5
The Los Angeles Rams have played two straight high-powered offenses in the Tampa Bay Bucs and Arizona Cardinals. Both games wen over the total, and that has this total against the Seattle Seahawks inflated. There's definitely value in this UNDER Thursday night.
Seattle has also played three straight very good offenses in the Titans, Vikings and 49ers. That also has this total inflated as both of these teams have better defenses than the numbers would show to this point. And Seattle plays at a slow pace, averaging just 50 players per game. The Rams only average 58 plays per game on offense.
Division games are always played closer to the vest. Teams are more familiar with one another playing each other twice a season. They always tend to be lower-scoring. That has been the case in this series, too.
The Rams and Seahawks have combined for 50 or fewer points in four consecutive meetings. They combined for 50, 29, 39 and 40 points in each of the last four meetings, respectively. That's an average of just 39.5 combined points per game, which is 15 points less than this 54.5-point total.
The UNDER is 20-7 in Rams last 27 games as favorites. The UNDER is 10-3 in Seahawks last 13 games overall. Seattle is 6-0 UNDER vs. teams that allow 375 or more yards per game over the last three seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|10-04-21||Raiders +3.5 v. Chargers||Top||14-28||Loss||-115||126 h 26 m||Show|
20* Raiders/Chargers ESPN No-Brainer on Las Vegas +3.5
The Las Vegas Raiders are 3-0 this season and have played three very good teams in the Ravens, Steelers and Dolphins. Those three teams all have great defenses, and this Oakland offense has lit up the scoreboard and the numbers against all three.
The Raiders are scoring 30.0 points per game this season and averaging 471.0 yards per game. Derek Carr has already thrown for 1,203 yards in three games. The Raiders definitely deserved to win all three games as they outgained the Ravens by 85 yards, the Steelers by 94 yards and the Dolphins by 167 yards.
The Chargers are 2-1 this season despite getting outgained in two games. They were outgained by 85 yards by the Chiefs last week. And because they pulled the upset win over such a big rival and defending Super Bowl champ, this is actually a letdown spot for the Chargers. We saw the Ravens nearly lose to the Lions last week after upsetting the Chiefs the week before.
With this game being played in Los Angeles there's going to be a ton of Raiders fans there. It might actually be a home-field advantage for them. So this line makes no sense with the Chargers being 3.5-point favorites considering these are basically even teams. There is value with the Raiders this week because of it.
Las Vegas is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog. The Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their last four Monday games. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Raiders are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 trips to Los Angeles. The underdog is 18-6 ATS in the last 24 meetings. Bet the Raiders Monday.
|10-03-21||Bucs v. Patriots +7||Top||19-17||Win||100||103 h 32 m||Show|
20* Bucs/Patriots NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New England +7
The betting public is all over the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs in this game. They don't believe Tom Brady is going to lose to his former team. But that is where the point spread is the great equalizer, and it's time to 'sell high' on the Bucs here as 7-point road favorites against the Patriots.
The Bucs are fortunate to be 2-1 this season. They overcame four turnovers in the opener and needed a last-second field goal to beat the Cowboys 31-29, failing to cover as 10-point favorites. They only held a 3-point lead over the Falcons at home in the 2nd half before getting two straight pick-6's that turned the game. And last week they lost outright 24-34 at the Rams as 1-point favorites.
The defending Super Bowl champion is almost always overvalued, and that was the case with the Chiefs last year. That's the case with the Bucs this year, especially in this spot with Brady returning to face his former team. While Brady and the offense are humming, the defense has been a problem in giving up 29.3 points and 402.0 yards per game this season. They have been awful against the pass, allowing 338 passing yards per game.
It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Patriots, who are coming off an upset home loss to the New Orleans Saints last week. But the Patriots gave that game away by being -3 in turnovers. It was much closer than the final score, and the Patriots actually outgained the Saints by 48 yards in that contest.
The best unit on the field might be the Patriots defense. They are giving up just 17.0 points per game and 282.3 yards per game this season. Mac Jones has been up against three very good defenses, and this is actually a step down in class from what he has faced thus far in the Dolphins, Saints and Jets. He is primed for his best game of the season.
Tampa Bay is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games after allowing 275 or more passing yards in three straight games. New England is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 games as a home underdog. The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the Patriots Sunday.
|10-03-21||Browns v. Vikings +2||Top||14-7||Loss||-104||95 h 12 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Vikings +2
The Minnesota Vikings could easily be 3-0 against a very tough schedule thus far. But since they are 1-2 they are undervalued right now. They lost in OT in Week 1 at Cincinnati after fumbling when they were in field goal range for the game-winning kick. They missed an extra point and the potential game-winning 37-yard field goal at Arizona in a 1-point loss in Week 2.
But last week they showed some resiliency and beat the Seahawks handily 30-17 in their first home game of the season. They are a much better home team than a road team under Mike Zimmer through the years. And their offense is hitting on all cylinders this season.
The Vikings are 8th in scoring offense at 29.0 points per game and 3rd in total offense at 425 yards pre game. They didn't miss Dalvin Cook one bit last week as backup Alexander Mattison accounted for 171 yards from scrimmage. But there's a good chance Cook returns this week as he returned to practice.
After losing to the Chiefs on the road in Week 1, the Browns have beaten two of the worst teams in the NFL at home the last two weeks in the Texans and Bears. They basically beat two rookie quarterbacks in those two games as Davis Mills replaced an injured Tyrod Taylor early for the Texans and Justin Fields made his first career start for the Bears.
Now they take a big step up in class here against a motivated Vikings team that wants to get back to .500 on the season. Kirk Cousins is playing some of the best football of his career. Cleveland is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after a win by more than 14 points. The Browns are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as road favorites. The Vikings are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games as home underdogs. Bet the Vikings Sunday.
|10-03-21||Washington Football Team -115 v. Falcons||34-30||Win||100||95 h 11 m||Show|
15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington ML -115
The Washington Football Team has been a disappointment thus far in 2021. They have gone 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS through three games. It's time to 'buy low' on them, especially considering their two losses came to two of the best teams in the NFL in the Bills and Chargers.
Now Washington takes a big step down in class here against the Atlanta Falcons. This is a Falcons team that was terrible in the preseason and terrible in their first two games, losing 32-6 to the Eagles at home and 48-25 to the Bucs on the road.
But now the Falcons are getting some respect from the books after upsetting the Giants 17-14 on the road last week. That win comes with an asterisk as the Giants lost two of their top receivers during the game and were hamstrung on offense.
Washington has the better defense here, and I wouldn't be surprised if they have the better offense as Matt Ryan has looked washed this season. But I fully expect a rally the troops type of effort from Washington based on comments made by Ron Rivera after the loss to the Bills.
Plays on any teams (Washington) - a good offensive team (5.4 to 5.8 YPP) against a team with a terrible defense that allows at least 5.8 YPP, after being outgained by 100 or more yards last game are 31-6 (83.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Atlanta is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games vs. teams who force 0.75 turnovers or fewer per game on the season. Rivera is 26-9 ATS off a road loss as a head coach. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Roll with Washington Sunday.
|09-30-21||Jaguars v. Bengals OVER 45.5||Top||21-24||Loss||-105||31 h 31 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Bengals OVER 45.5
Prime time OVERS have been money makers the last couple seasons. And this game sets up to be an OVER game tonight with these two teams in the Jaguars and Bengals. Both have suspect defenses.
The Jaguars have really been poor defensively. They rank 28th in scoring defense at 30.3 points per game and 29th in total defense at 418 yards per game. And they've only played one good offense in the Cardinals, who lite them up for 31 points last week. The other two teams were the Broncos and Texans.
The Cincinnati Bengals have good defensive numbers thus far and may be improved on that side of the ball, but they have played two poor offenses in the Bears and Steelers. They did give up 24 points and 403 total yards to the best offense they have faced in the Vikings.
The Jaguars have been able to move the football with 395 yards against the Texans and 361 yards against the Cardinals. But they have killed themselves with turnovers, committing 10 of them already in three games. That can also help the OVER by setting up easy scores for the Bengals.
Cincinnati does have an elite offense with great skill players. They have played three tough defenses and have fared well against the Vikings, Bears and Steelers. This is a big step down in class for them, and Joe Burrow is primed for his best game of the season. I'm expecting the Bengals to score 30-plus to carry the load on this OVER.
Cincinnati is 6-0 OVER in home games with a total of 45.5 or higher over the last three seasons. We are seeing 56.3 combined points per game in this spot. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
|09-27-21||Eagles +4 v. Cowboys||Top||21-41||Loss||-106||143 h 32 m||Show|
20* Eagles/Cowboys ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia +4
It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Dallas Cowboys this week. They took advantage of four Tampa Bay turnovers in Week 1 and covered in a 29-31 loss as 9-point underdogs. Then last week they went on the road and upset the Chargers 20-17 as 3-point dogs on a last-second 56-yard field goal by Greg Zurlein.
So now the Cowboys go from being dogs in both of those games and substantial dogs at that to 4-point home favorites here against the Philadelphia Eagles. This is a big overreaction as this game should be lined closer to a pick 'em. There's a ton of value on the Eagles this week for a number of different reasons.
The Cowboys have one of the worst defenses in the NFL again this year after having one of the worst last year. They are giving up 419.5 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play. Compare that to Philadelphia, which is giving up just 283 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play this season, and you can see why I'm siding with the Eagles. They just held the 49ers to 17 points and 306 total yards last week after giving up just 6 points and 260 total yards to the Falcons in Week 1.
The Eagles did struggle offensively last week against a very good 49ers defense, but they had their chances in that game and still outgained them with 328 total yards. The Eagles are averaging 6.2 yards per play this season, which isn't far behind the Cowboys, who are averaging 6.4 yards per play.
And the injury situation is worse for the Cowboys than it is for the Eagles. They are without T La'el Collins, WR Michael Gallup and DE Demarcus Lawrence. They also have seven players questionable heading into this game, including WR Amari Cooper. Jalen Hurts will make enough players to keep the Eagles in this game, and there's no question I trust Philadelphia's defense to get more stops than Dallas in this one.
Plays against home favorites (Dallas) - a poor team from last season that was outscored by 4.0 points per game or more, versus division opponents are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS since 1993. The Cowboys are 22-47 ATS in their last 69 games as home favorites. Dallas is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite overall. Roll with the Eagles Monday.
|09-26-21||Packers v. 49ers OVER 49||Top||30-28||Win||100||121 h 35 m||Show|
20* Packers/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 49
The Green Bay Packers gave up 55 combined points to the Saints and Lions the first two weeks. Those aren't two particularly good offenses. And the Packers continue to struggle stopping the run this year, which has always been a problem for them. They rank 26th in the NFL in giving up 4.8 yards per carry.
The 49ers have always been able to run the ball down Green Bay's throats in recent meetings. They will be able to do whatever they want offensively in this one. The 49ers have scored 29.0 points per game in their first two games with a nice balance of run and pass. They'll be up against a 49ers defense that is missing two of its best players in LB Dre Greenlaw and CB Jason Verrett.
The weakness of the entire 49ers team is their secondary, which is bad news going up against a guy like Aaron Rodgers. He got right last week against the Lions in leading the Packers to 35 points and four touchdown passes. He looked like his old self and should build on that this week by matching the 49ers score for score.
These teams met in the 2019-20 playoffs and combined for 57 points in a 37-20 San Francisco victory. Then last year they combined for 51 points in a 34-17 victory by the Packers that saw the 49ers missing several key players on offense due to injuries, including QB Jimmy G. I think they have no problem topping 49 points for a third straight meeting here.
The OVER is 19-10 in Kyle Shanahan's 29 games as a favorite as the coach of San Francisco. The OVER is 4-0 in Packers last four games as underdogs. The OVER is 5-1 in Packers last six games overall. The OVER is 6-0 in Packers last six Week 3 games. The OVER is 36-17 in Packers last 53 September games. The OVER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday night.
|09-26-21||Bucs v. Rams +1||Top||24-34||Win||100||115 h 43 m||Show|
20* Bucs/Rams NFC No-Brainer on Los Angeles +1
No team has impressed me more than the Los Angeles Rams through two games. After beating the Bears 34-14 at home in Week 1, they went on the road in Week 2 and beat the Colts 27-24. That was even after handing the Colts seven free points on special teams when they snapped the ball into the up man and the Colts recovered it in the end zone.
The Rams are averaging 6.9 yards per play on offense and giving up just 5.0 yards per play on defense, outgaining their opponents by 1.9 yards per play. They have the same elite defense that they've had in years' past, and now they finally have a QB in Matthew Stafford fit for running Sean McVay's offense. Stafford is completing 69.6% of his passes with a 5-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging a ridiculous 10.7 yards per attempt.
The Bucs are overhyped after their 2-0 start that has seen them score 31 points against the Cowboys and 48 more against the Falcons. But they needed a last-second field goal to beat the Cowboys, and they got 14 points handed to them by the Falcons on tipped balls that resulted in pick-6's. That was a 28-25 game in the 4th quarter before the Bucs scored three touchdowns without even blinking to put it away. And the Falcons are terrible.
The Bucs put up gaudy offensive numbers against two of the worst defenses in the NFL. Now they take a big step up in class here against the Rams, who led the NFL in total defense last year. And we remember what the Rams did to them last year. They went on the road at Tampa Bay and won 27-24 while limiting the Bucs to just 251 total yards.
Tom Brady had one of his worst games of the season, completing 26-of-48 passes for 216 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Even Jared Goff threw for 376 yards and three touchdowns on this Tampa Bay defense, so you can imagine what Stafford is going to do. That's especially the case with all of the injuries the Bucs have in the secondary that has seen them give up 342 passing yards per game through two games thus far.
The Rams are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS loss. Los Angeles is 22-8-1 ATS in its last 31 vs. NFC opponents. The Rams are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Bucs. Roll with the Rams Sunday.