|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-17-21||Bucs +3 v. Saints||Top||30-20||Win||102||71 h 59 m||Show|
25* NFL Divisional Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Bucs +3
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have now reeled off five straight victories and their offense is playing at a level as good as anyone that's left in the playoffs. They are scoring 35.8 points per game during this five-game winning streak.
I was really impressed with what they did against Washington's defense last game. They put up 507 total yards on a Washington defense that is one of the best in the NFL, especially up front. If they can do that against Washington, they can certainly penetrate this overrated New Orleans defense.
The Bucs are also playing pretty well defensively in giving up 329.9 yards per game on the season. And now they will get back their best defender in LB Devin White, who leads the team with 140 tackles, 9 sacks and 18 tackles for loss. White had to sit out the Washington game, which is a big reason they actually somewhat struggled to stop Taylor Heineke and company. They could also get back their best run stuffer in DT Jeremiah Ledbetter from a calf injury. RB Ronald Jones could return after missing last week as well.
The Saints had some new injuries pop up in their win over the lowly Bears last week. RB Latavius Murray, QB Taysom Hill and CB Patrick Robinson all missed practice for a second straight day on Thursday. DE Trey Hendrickson, LT Terron Armstead and TE Jared Cook were all limited in practice on Thursday as well.
No question the Bucs are going to be the more motivated team here after losing the first two meetings of the season with the Saints, including their fluky 38-3 loss last time. I think we see an inspired effort from them similar to the one we saw from the Ravens last week, who were playing with identical double-revenge after losing to the Titans in the playoffs last year and in their first meeting this season.
New Orleans is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 playoff home games. The Saints are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record. Only one of the Saints' last nine games has come against a team with a winning record, and that was their home loss to the Chiefs in which they were outgained by 126 yards and were blown out worse than the final score showed. Bet the Bucs Sunday.
|01-16-21||Ravens v. Bills -139||3-17||Win||100||49 h 35 m||Show|
15* Ravens/Bills AFC BAILOUT on Buffalo ML -139
I'm going to take the points out of play here and back the Buffalo Bills on the Money Line Saturday night. The Bills are playing as well as anyone in the playoffs right now. They are 10-1 in their last 11 games overall with their only loss coming on the hail mary by Arizona. They are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall, and they have won seven straight SU with six of those coming by double-digits.
Josh Allen had an MVP-caliber season. He has guided the Bills to an average of 36.7 PPG in their last nine games overall as this offense is humming as well as any offense in the NFL right now. And the Bills have played much better defensively down the stretch to live up to their potential. They are giving up just 19.1 points per game in their last seven games overall.
Allen and the offense will get theirs against the Ravens, and it's going to come down to how well the Bills stop the run. They played soft against the run against the Colts last week because they were up 14 in the second half and defending the pass. They have allowed 86 or fewer rushing yards in four of their last seven games overall. And they have the speed at linebacker to contain Lamar Jackson.
This is a total different matchup here as the Bills can stack eight in the box to stop the run. Jackson can't beat them with his arm, and that's the knock on him. The Ravens are averaging just 155.9 passing yards per game in their last eight games. They have been held below 200 passing yards in 13 of their 17 games this season. So with Buffalo knowing it needs to stop the run to win this game, I think defensive minded head coach Sean McDermott comes up with the proper game plan to do just that. And you know if Buffalo gets ahead big the Ravens don't have the ability to come back.
Lamar Jackson has never played in snow and the conditions could really hurt him. He struggles to take care of the football as it is with terrible ball security. And temperatures are going to be in the 20's Saturday night in Buffalo with a 40% chance of snow and winds from 10-15 MPH. Allen is obviously used to playing in tough conditions dating back to his time at Wyoming. That's a huge advantage for the Bills in this one.
Baltimore is just 3-4 SU against teams with winning records this season. Buffalo is 6-2 SU against teams with winning records. The Bills are 7-1 ATS in all games where the line is +3 to -3 this season. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Buffalo being 10-1 SU in its last 11 games overall applies here since we just need them to win straight up. Roll with the Bills on the Money Line Saturday.
|01-16-21||Rams v. Packers -6.5||Top||18-32||Win||100||45 h 54 m||Show|
20* Rams/Packers NFC No-Brainer on Green Bay -6.5
The Green Bay Packers fought hard to get the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage in the first round. And now they are going to pay it off with a dominant win over the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Divisional Round Saturday.
The Packers have gone 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall with all six wins coming by 7 points or more and by an average of 15.0 points per game. That includes their 40-14 home win over the Titans in the snow. And it is going to be cold, windy and there is currently a 40% chance of snow.
That's bad news for a West Coast team in the Rams that is used to playing in perfect conditions. We've seen Jared Goff struggle in the past in cold weather in Chicago. And Goff is far from 100% right now. The only reason he played last week against Seattle was because John Wolford got hurt. He came in and didn't have much on his throws as he is dealing with a broken thumb still. And Wofford has already been ruled out, leaving it all on Goff.
Goff completed just 9-of-19 passes against the Seahawks last week. And he isn't the only injury concern here. The Rams' best defender in Aaron Donald suffered a rib injury that forced him out of action in the second half against Seattle. He will play, but he won't be is usual dominant self. WR Cooper Kupp (knee) was held out of practice Thursday and is questionable. LB Terrell Lewis (ankle) has been ruled out.
With Goff hobbled and Kupp not himself, the Rams are going to struggled to keep up with the Packers on the scoreboard. Aaron Rodgers is the MVP of the league with 70.7% completions, 4,299 yards and a 48-to-5 TD/INT ratio. He and Devante Adams have hooked up 115 times for 1,374 yards and 18 touchdowns. Aaron Jones quietly has rushed for 1,104 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 5.5 per carry. This is a Packers offense that is averaging 31.8 points per game on the season.
The Rams have really been held in check offensively down the stretch. The 30 points they scored on Seattle was fluky as they did it on just 333 total yards and an average of 4.9 yards per play. They were aided by a pick-6 early in that game. They are averaging just 20.2 points, 324.2 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play in their last five games overall. That's not going to get it done against an improved Packers defense that allows just 334.1 yards per game this season.
The Packers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in this series, winning five times by 10 points or more. The favorite is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. This trend continues as the rested Packers put it on the Rams for four quarters, and Jared Goff and company have no answer. Take the Packers Saturday.
|01-10-21||Bears +10.5 v. Saints||9-21||Loss||-119||69 h 33 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Bears +10.5
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Chicago Bears off their 16-35 loss to the Packers last week. They were in that game in the 2nd half down only 5 before the Packers took over late. But it was a much closer game than the final score would indicate. The Bears actually outgained the Packers by 40 yards and held them to 316 total yards.
This Chicago offense has really come to life behind Mitch Trubisky down the stretch. They are averaging 30.2 points and 382.2 yards per game in their last six games overall, which have all come with Trubisky under center. Those are the kind of numbers that are going to make it tough for the Saints to put them away. And the Bears obviously have one of the better defenses in the NFL, giving up 344.1 yards per game on the season.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Saints, who are overvalued off back-to-back blowout wins over the Vikings 52-33 and Panthers 33-7. The Panthers had about five red zone trips end in zero points and turned the ball over five times. That was a hugely misleading final score, and it has provided us with some serious line value here on the Bears.
Consider that the Bears were only 4.5-point underdogs to the Packers last week and now they are 10.5-point underdogs to the Saints. That's a 6-point adjustment. Keep in mind the Packers beat the Saints earlier this season too, and the Bears have been competitive in every game outside of their two matchups with the Packers. They only have three losses by double-digits all season, and two were against the Packers. The other was against the Rams by 14, who were coming off a bye week.
Also consider that the Bears were 5-point underdogs to the Saints in their first meeting this season. They only lost that game 23-26 in overtime. So this is also a 5.5-point adjustment off that first meeting, which saw the Bears hang tough for four quarters and overtime, and I think they can hang tough again. Keep in mind that was Nick Foles at QB too for the Bears in that first meeting, and Trubisky is the better of the two quarterbacks, which has been proven here down the stretch.
The Saints have been choke artists in the playoffs in recent years. New Orleans is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 playoff home games, including 0-4 ATS in its last four playoff home games. They were upset by both the Rams and Vikings the last two seasons at home in the playoffs. Underdogs are 11-1 ATS in the 12 wild card games over the last three seasons. Teams entering the playoffs with an 8-8 record or worse are 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven instances in the Wild Card Round.
Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10.5 points (New Orleans) - off a road win over a division rival, a top team winning 75% or more of their games in the second half of the season are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Roll with the Bears Sunday.
|01-09-21||Bucs v. Washington Football Team +8||Top||31-23||Push||0||48 h 8 m||Show|
25* NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington +8
The Washington Football Team gets overlooked because they have a mediocre offense. But they have a championship level defense, and that fact alone gives them a chance to pull the upset here against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round. At the very least they should stay within this inflated 8-point spread.
Washington has allowed 20 points or fewer in seven straight games coming in. That's hard to do in today's NFL, and it just goes to show how dominant their defense has really been. They have arguably the best defensive line in the NFL, and the way to get to Tom Brady is with pressure, especially pressure up the middle. Washington can do just that.
Tom Brady has been awful in primetime games this year. He is 0-4 ATS in primetime games with five touchdowns and five interceptions. He has an 8:30 bed time, which may have something to do with it. And the Bucs come in overvalued on a 4-game winning streak, but all four wins came against teams with losing records. Tampa went 1-5 SU against teams with records of .500 or better this season. The temps will be in the 30s at game time so this is also Brady having to go outdoors in the cold weather, something you don't want from aging quarterbacks.
Washington may be a losing team at 7-9, but they have been a different team down the stretch and with Alex Smith under center. They have gone 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall. Their only two losses came with Dwayne Haskins as their starter. They are 5-0 SU in games that Smith has started to improve to 11-5 with Smith compared to 6-26 with all other starting QB's since he arrived in Washington.
The last seven teams that entered the playoffs with a record of 8-8 or worse have gone 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS. That includes outright upsets by the two teams that had 7-9 records. These teams consistently come in undervalued due to their record. But as stated before, Washington has been a much better team down the stretch than its record would suggest.
Tampa Bay has a huge loss on the defensive side of the ball that is getting overlooked. LB Devin White, the teams's leading tackler with 140 tackles, 9 sacks and 18 tackles for loss, will be out of this game due to COVID-19. I think his loss is a huge one, and it will allow Antonio Gibson to run the ball more effectively and take some pressure off of Smith.
Underdogs are 11-1 ATS in 12 Wild Card games over the last three seasons. Washington is 6-0 ATS off a win by 6 points or less over the last three seasons. Washington is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a win. Bet Washington Saturday.
|01-09-21||Colts v. Bills -6||Top||24-27||Loss||-110||41 h 59 m||Show|
20* Colts/Bills AFC Wild Card No-Brainer on Buffalo -6
Nobody is playing better than the Buffalo Bills coming into the playoffs. The Bills would be on a 10-game winning streak if not for the fluke Hail Mary by Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals. But that loss may have been a blessing in disguise because the Bills have been dominant ever since.
Indeed, the Bills have won six straight games all by double-digits. They are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall. And this team continues to be undervalued week after week. They are lighting up the scoreboard with 37.9 points per game in their last eight games. Their defense is playing up to the level that it did last season. They are giving up just 18.3 points per game in their last six games.
Josh Allen is by far the superior quarterback in this matchup. I don't trust Philip Rivers to be able to match him score for score. Rivers is used to warm weather after playing in San Diego and also playing in a dome in Indianapolis. He will be out of his element here. Temperatures in Buffalo will be in the 20s around kickoff. I always like fading older quarterbacks with questionable arm strength like Rivers outdoors in the playoffs. We saw the Colts struggle outdoors early this season in elements when they lost 23-32 at Cleveland. They also lost outdoors at Pittsburgh in Week 16.
The Colts have played the single-easiest schedule int he entire NFL this season. They played the 32nd-ranked schedule. Buffalo played the 13th-toughest schedule. So that disparity in SOS definitely favors the Bills. The Colts went 2-4 against teams with winning records this season, while the Bills went 5-2 against teams with winning records, including 3-0 in their last three with all three wins by double-digits over Seattle by 10, Pittsburgh by 11 and Miami by 30.
And keep in mind the Bills rested their starters in the 2nd half of that 56-26 win over Miami last week. They will now be the fresher team here, which is a big factor considering this is the first game of the Wild Card round with kickoff set for 1:00 EST Saturday afternoon. The Colts found themselves in a dog fight with the Jaguars last week. They led 20-14 late in the fourth quarter with the Jaguars having the ball around the 50-yard line with a chance to take the lead.
The Bills are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall. The Colts are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game. Indianapolis is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games as an underdog. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. These four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing Buffalo. Take the Bills Saturday.
|01-03-21||Washington Football Team -1 v. Eagles||Top||20-14||Win||100||103 h 31 m||Show|
20* Washington/Eagles NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Washington -1
Washington wins the NFC East with a win Sunday night against the Philadelphia Eagles. It's safe to say they'll be max motivated. I don't think you can say the same for the Eagles, who were just eliminated from playoff contention with their 17-37 loss at Dallas last week. I always like fading teams the week after they have been eliminated from the playoffs.
The Eagles have now lost six of their last even games overall. Their injury situation is awful. They led 14-3 at Dallas las week before Fletcher Cox went out with a stinger. Dallas outscored them 34-3 the rest of the way. It's unlikely that Cox will be back this week, and he's their most important player on defense, especially when it comes to stopping the run and getting after the passer.
The Eagles are also missing a handful of players in the secondary. The Cardinals and Cowboys have both torched their defense the last two weeks. The Cardinals had 526 yards against them, while the Cowboys put up 513 yards against them. The talent level they are putting on the field might be the worst in the NFL right now on the defensive side of the ball.
Washington is likely to get Alex Smith back at quarterback this season. Washington is 10-5 with Smith as a starter, and 6-26 with everyone else over the last few seasons. I don't think they would have let Dwayne Haskins go if they didn't know Smith would return this week. There's a good chance they get back their best receiver in Terry McClaurin from injury this week as well. And RB Antonio Gibson returned last week and is back to full strength. So the matchup is a good one for this Washington offense.
But it's the Washington defense that has me excited to back them again this week. They have held six straight opponents to 20 points or fewer. No defense is playing better than theirs right now. They give up just 21.0 points per game this season. They held the Eagles to just 17 points and 26 total yards in their first meeting this season in their 27-17 victory. They also forced three turnovers, and Jalen Hurts had three turnovers against the Cowboys last week. Chase Allen and company will make life difficult on the rookie Hurts in this one. And it helps that Washington now has some game film on him after starting the last three weeks.
Washington is 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. The only two games they lost came with Haskins as a starter, and they were competitive in both with a 5-point loss to Seattle and a 7-point loss to Carolina. They upset the Cowboys, Steelers and 49ers with Smith at QB and I was on them in all three games. Even Taylor Heineke gave them a spark when he replaced Haskins last week, and they are good enough to win with him even if Smith can't go. I recommend betting this game early because when they announce Smith as a starter I expect this line to go to -3.
Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS in its last six games off an upset loss as a road favorite. Washington is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after gaining 350 or more total yards last game. Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. NFC East opponents. The Eagles are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss. Take Washington Sunday.
|01-03-21||Saints v. Panthers +7||Top||33-7||Loss||-114||99 h 39 m||Show|
25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Carolina Panthers +7
The New Orleans Saints are still alive for the No. 1 seed, but they would need a lot to go right and they know it. They'd need the Packers to lose to the Bears and the Seahawks to beat the 49ers, which would put them in a 3-way tie with both. They would win the tiebreaker based on their record against NFC teams in that scenario.
It's just unlikely to happen, and I think with the Saints knowing it, don't be surprised if they aren't 100% 'all in' for this Week 17 game. They would be better off resting their guys and getting ready for the playoffs. I think this line is adjusted too much in the Saints' favor because technically they still have something to play for, but the reality is that they aren't likely to improve their seeding.
What we do know is that the Carolina Panthers show up every week for head coach Matt Rhule. Washington had a chance to clinch the NFC East last week, and Carolina played spoiler in a 20-13 victory. And now the Panthers have a shot to play spoiler here against a hated division rival and will be 'all in' for their final game of the 2020-21 season.
It's also true that Carolina is much better than is 5-10 record would indicate. Indeed, eight of those 10 losses came by one score. The only two blowout losses came in their two meetings with Tampa Bay. They only lost 24-27 to the Saints in their first meeting this season, so they already proved they could play with them.
New Orleans is getting too much respect off its 52-33 win over a Vikings team that appeared to quit last week, at least defensively. The Panthers will offer a lot more resistance here. The Panthers held the Packers to 24 points and 291 total yards two weeks ago and should have won that game outright. And last week they held Washington to 13 points and forced four turnovers.
Teddy 'Covers' Bridgewater just keeps getting the money. He is 36-13 ATS in his career as a starter, including 24-5 ATS as an underdog. And the Panthers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs this season. This just goes to show that they come to play every week under Rhule, and that they have lost so many close games this season that they are consistently undervalued.
Injuries are starting to pile up for the Saints. They are without three key receivers in Michael Thomas, Deonte Harris and Tre'quan Smith. They just lost starting LB Kwon Alexander to a season-ending injury last week. He was starting to play well after getting claimed from the 49ers. Safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson (66 tackles, 1 INT) will be out with COVID. Fellow S Marcus Williams (59 tackles, 3 INT), DE Trey Hendrickson (12.5 sacks) CB Patrick Robinson (2 INT) and TE Josh Hill are all questionable.
New Orleans is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after outrushing its last opponents by 150 or more yards. Carolina is 6-0 ATS vs. teams that average 29 or more points per game over the last three seasons. The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings with only one loss by more than 5 points in those six meetings. The underdog is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Bet the Panthers Sunday.
|01-03-21||Falcons +7.5 v. Bucs||27-44||Loss||-120||6 h 43 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta Falcons +7.5
The Atlanta Falcons show up week in and week out since Raheem Morris took over. And they'll certainly show up in Week 17 against a division rival in the Tampa Bay Bucs. They want revenge after blowing a 24-7 lead to the Bucs in their first meeting this season just two weeks ago. And they don't have to wait long to get it.
While the Falcons have lost four straight, all four losses were by 5 points or fewer, and three were to playoff teams. They only lost 16-21 to the Saints and had a chance to win the game on their final drive. They lost 17-20 to the Chargers. They lost 27-31 to the Bucs. And they only lost 14-17 to the Chiefs last week as double-digit underdogs. They had a chance to win the game or send it to overtime late, but their kicker missed the game-tying field goal.
What makes the Falcons so intriguing all of a sudden is that they have played some tremendous defense down the stretch under Morris, who is their defensive coordinator. They have allowed 21 or fewer points in four of their last five games overall. And holding the Chiefs to just 17 points just goes to show how good this defense is playing right now.
The Bucs are overvalued off their 47-7 win over a Detroit Lions team that has quit and is banged up. Now they go from being 6-point favorites over the Falcons two weeks ago to 7.5-point favorites over them this week. That adjustment is not warranted considering the Falcons played them tough in that first meeting and only lost by 4 points.
And while the Falcons are very healthy right now, the Bucs are going to be without several key players in their defensive front seven. They will be without LB Shaquil Barrett, LB Devin White, DL Steve McClendon and DT Jeremiah Ledbetter. And I think this line is higher than it should be because Bruce Arians has come out publicly and said the Bucs are going to try and win and not rest starters. That has given us extra line value here. Don't be surprised if the Bucs do pull some starters in the second half of this one.
The Bucs are just 1-3 SU in their last four home games with their only win coming against the Vikings in a game that was closer than the 26-14 score would indicate. The Vikings left 10 points on the board with three missed field goals and a missed extra point. The Vikings outgained the Bucs in that contest as well.
The Falcons have lost just once by more than 7 points in their last 11 games overall. That was a 9-24 loss to the Saints in which they led 9-3 just before halftime before getting shut out the rest of the way. That makes for a 10-1 system backing the Falcons pertaining to this 7.5-point spread. Getting points with the Falcons has been a very profitable move. Atlanta is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games as a road underdog. Tampa Bay is 8-21-1 ATS in its last 30 games as a home favorite. Roll with the Falcons Sunday.
|12-28-20||Bills -7 v. Patriots||Top||38-9||Win||100||11 h 43 m||Show|
20* Bills/Patriots ESPN No-Brainer on Buffalo -7
The Buffalo Bills want the No. 2 seed in the AFC. That would give them home-field advantage all the way until they have to face the Chiefs in the the AFC Championship Game if both teams win out. Adding to their motivation is that they have been the little brother to New England for a few decades. They would love to pull off the season sweep here in emphatic fashion.
Of course the Bills are going to show up for a prime time game on National TV. And of course they are going to show up with it being the Patriots. So motivation won't be an issue for them, and I expect them to continue firing on all cylinders as they have been for weeks now.
Indeed, the Bills are 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall with their only loss coming on the hail mary by the Arizona Cardinals on the final play of the game. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six gmes overall with five wins by double-digits during this stretch. They beat the Broncos 48-19 last week, the Steelers 26-15 two weeks ago, the 49ers 34-24 three weeks ago, the Chargers 27-17 four weeks ago and the Seahawks 44-34 seven weeks ago.
Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level by leading the Bills to an average of 34.8 points per game in their last six games. And their defense is starting to play up to its potential now in holding the last four opponents to 18.8 points per game. They held the Steelers to 224 yards and the Broncos to 255 yards the last two weeks.
There's no way this pitiful New England offense is going to be able to keep up with Allen and company. They have averaged just 248.3 yards per game in their last four games coming in. They were held to 12 points against the Dolphins and outgained by 80 yards. They were held to 3 points and 220 yards against the Rams. And they were held to 179 yards against the Cardinals. They were also held to 291 yards in a misleading win over the Chargers. And now they are without their best CB in Stephon Gilmore, who would have been matched up with Stefon Diggs. Now Diggs, who has 111 receptions for 1314 yards this season, will have a huge game tonight.
The Bills are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. Buffalo is 11-4-2 ATS in its last 17 road games. The road team is 21-8-2 ATS in the last 31 meetings. Bet the Bills Monday.
|12-27-20||Falcons +11 v. Chiefs||Top||14-17||Win||100||3 h 19 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons +11
The Kansas City Chiefs are overvalued due to their 13-1 record. I have been selling high on them for weeks, except for last week I had them when they covered as closing 2.5-point favorites over the Saints. And now this is a huge letdown spot off that win over New Orleans as they won't be nearly as motivated to face the Falcons. Not to mention, they basically already have the No. 1 seed wrapped up in the AFC and a first-round bye.
The Chiefs have gone 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. They have won all six games, but all six wins came by 6 points or less. They just don't keep their foot on the gas and they just seem to be going through the motions waiting for the playoffs to come. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Falcons pull the upset here, and at the very least this 11-point spread is way too high.
The Falcons continue to play hard for Raheem Morris. In their last seven games, they have either won the game outright or lost by 5 points or fewer six times. So they have been competitive in every game. The only exception was the loss to the Saints 9-24 in which they led 9-3 but fell apart in the second half. They gave the Bucs all they could handle last week in a 27-31 loss. That's a Bucs team that went on to crush Detroit 47-7 on Saturday.
The Falcons have a very underrated defense that has allowed 24 or fewer points in four of their last five games overall. They will be able to slow down the Chiefs here. And Matt Ryan and company should be able to keep pace as well. They have scored 25 or more points in four of their last seven games and are averaging 25.8 points per game in their last four.
Kansas City is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games after gaining 400 or more yards in three straight games coming in. The Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight Week 16 games. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss. The Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as favorites. Bet the Falcons Sunday.
|12-27-20||Bears v. Jaguars OVER 46.5||41-17||Win||100||3 h 19 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bears/Jaguars OVER 46.5
The Chicago Bears have become an offensive juggernaut with Mitch Trubisky at quarterback. He has led the Bears to 30 or more points in three straight games now. And they have gotten their running game going, making things easier on him in the play-action passing game.
The Bears have rushed for at least 140 yards in all three games. They only had to punt once against the Vikings last week in their 33-27 victory. And now they face a Jaguars defense that gave up 40 points to Baltimore last week. In fact, the Jaguars have now allowed at least 24 points in each of their last 13 games, all losses. They give up 30.2 points per game this season. The Bears should get to 30-plus points for a fourth consecutive week.
The Jaguars should be able to do their part against a Bears defense that allowed 34 points to the Lions three weeks ago and 27 to the Vikings last week. I think Jacksonville should top 20 points in this one. Mike Glennon will be their quarterback, and he has been the best of the Jaguars' three different signal callers this season. It will be great weather in Jacksonville as well, which sets this game up to be a shootout.
The OVER is 20-7 in Bears last 27 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The OVER is 19-7 in Bears last 26 games as a road favorite. The OVER is 4-0 in Jaguars last four games following an ATS loss. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-27-20||Bengals v. Texans OVER 44.5||37-31||Win||100||3 h 19 m||Show|
15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Bengals/Texans OVER 44.5
The Cincinnati Bengals and Houston Texans have nothing to play for but pride. I like backing the OVER late in the season when that is the case. I see defense as being optional in this game, and for both the Bengals and Texans to hang big numbers offensively.
For starters, these are two of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Texans give up 27.6 points and 402.8 yards per game this season. The Bengals allow 25.4 points and 372.6 yards per game. The Texans still have a very good offense under Deshaun Watson, and the Bengals showed some life offensively last week with 27 points against a very good Steelers defense.
Houston is 19-6 OVER in its last 25 games coming off three or more consecutive unders. If the Texans hadn't fumbled inside the 5-yard line in the final seconds against the Colts two of the last three weeks, both those games would have gone OVER. I think that fact is providing us with some line value here with this total of only 44.5. Plus the Bengals have gone under the total in four of their last five while playing some very bad offenses in Washington, Giants, Dolphins, Cowboys and Steelers. That has also provided us with some value on the OVER. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-26-20||Dolphins -3 v. Raiders||26-25||Loss||-101||35 h 52 m||Show|
15* Dolphins/Raiders AFC Saturday Night BAILOUT on Miami -3
The Miami Dolphins have been the gift that keeps on giving for me and my premium clients. They will continue adding to our profits on the day after Christmas here against the fading Oakland Raiders. The Dolphins are now 9-5 SU this season and 11-3 ATS, the best ATS mark in the NFL.
Better yet, the Dolphins are now 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. They are currently the 7th seed in the AFC playoffs, tied with the Ravens for the final spot. They cannot afford to take their foot off the gas now, especially knowing they have a difficult game at Buffalo on deck next week. This is a must-win for them and they will play like it.
The Dolphins have the best scoring defense in the NFL at 18.4 points per game allowed. That's what makes them so underrated. Now they have Tua at quarterback coming into his own the last three weeks. Hew threw for 296 yards against the Bengals and 316 yards against the Chiefs before completing 20-of-26 passes against the Patriots last week. And the Dolphins showed they could win that game on the ground with 250 rushing yards in their 22-12 victory.
The Dolphins will be able to do whatever they want to offensively against a Raiders defense that gives up 30.1 points and 385.4 yards per game and just recently fired their defensive coordinator. It didn't matter much at all as they gave up 30 points and 402 yards against the Chargers last time out. And now after going 1-4 SU in their last five games overall, the Raiders have been all but eliminated from the playoffs and have nothing to play for the rest the way.
The Dolphins were missing three of their best weapons in WR Parker, WR Grant and TE Gesicki last week and still found a way to win with their running game and a high-efficiency game from Tua. But all three were close to playing last week, so there's a good chance they get back a few of them this week. The Raiders have a worse injury situation as they are missing a handful of starters on defense, have injuries all over their offensive line, and now Derek Carr had to leave the last game with a groin injury. He may return this week, but he won't be mobile at all and will probably hurt the Raiders more by playing than help them.
The Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games off two or more consecutive ATS losses. The Dolphins are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games, including 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games. Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last five December games. The Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, failing to cover the spread by a combined 66 points. I'll gladly back the better, more motivated team in this one that has a lot more to play for. Roll with the Dolphins Saturday.
|12-26-20||49ers v. Cardinals -4.5||Top||20-12||Loss||-101||31 h 7 m||Show|
20* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona Cardinals -4.5
Fading the 49ers has made me a lot of money this season. And I'm not about to stop now as they continue to be overvalued week after week, including here Saturday against Arizona in Week 16. The 49ers are now 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last six games overall with all six losses coming by 8 points or more. The Cardinals should be at least 7-point favorites in this matchup.
The 49ers have officially been eliminated from the playoffs after three straight upset losses to Buffalo, Washington and Dallas. Now they are down to third-string QB CJ Beathard, who is 1-9 as a starter in the NFL, including 0-3 in three meetings with the Cardinals. And their laundry list of injuries is worse than any other team in the NFL, which is the biggest reason they have struggled this season to a 5-9 record after nearly winning the Super Bowl last year.
The Cardinals are highly motivated right now to clinch a playoff spot. They are 8-6 and currently in the final spot in the NFC playoff race. They would clinch a spot in the postseason for the first time since 2015 if they win on Saturday and the Chicago Bears lose to the Jaguars on Sunday. They have owned the 49ers over the years as they are going for their 5th season sweep in the past 6 years after winning 24-20 at San Francisco in Week 1.
Kyler Murray looks fully recovered from a shoulder injury that hampered him for a few weeks during a three-game skid. But the Cardinals have since won their last two with a dominant 26-7 road win over the Giants and a 33-26 home win over the Eagles. The sign that Murray is healthy is that he is using his legs again with 21 rush attempts combined in those two victories.
The offense was certainly hitting on all cylinders against the Eagles with 526 yards as they outgained the Eagles by 104 yards. They had 390 yards on a very good Giants defense, and they held them to just 159 yards and outgained them by 231 yards. Now the season-long stats for the Cardinals really show they are a dominant team outscoring opponents by 4.4 points per game and outgaining them by 49.2 yards per game.
The 49ers cannot be trusted to hold onto the football. They have committed two or more turnovers in eight consecutive games and 10 of their last 11 games overall. Beathard is a turnover machine as well and will be running for his life in this one. And this 49ers defense looked to kind of quit last week in giving up 41 points to Dallas. They are just playing out the string right now and disappointed they have to be in Arizona over Christmas instead of being with their family due to the COVID restrictions in Santa Clara.
Plays against underdogs or PK (San Francisco) - after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, versus division opponents are 36-9 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons. Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record. The Cardinals are 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet the Cardinals Saturday.
|12-25-20||Vikings +7 v. Saints||33-52||Loss||-120||7 h 7 m||Show|
15* Vikings/Saints NFC ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +7
The Minnesota Vikings aren't officially eliminated from the playoffs yet. And until they are, I trust Mike Zimmer to have this team ready to go in Week 16 against the New Orleans Saints. After all, this is Christmas Day on National TV, so players will be up for this game to try and knock off the Saints. It's a Saints team they have quietly formed a rivalry with after meeting in the playoffs a couple times in recent years.
There's clearly value with the Vikings here. In fact, this is their largest underdog role of the season. They haven't been 7-point dogs or higher in any game this year. And in their two previous biggest dog roles, they lost in the closing seconds 26-27 as 6.5-point dogs at Seattle. They won outright 28-22 as 6-point dogs at Green Bay. And they deserved to cover had Dan Bailey not missed three FG's and an extra point in a 14-26 loss as 6-point dogs at Tampa Bay.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Vikings after going 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. But they have played better than that would suggest. In fact, the Vikings have now outgained seven straight opponents by an average of 63 yards per game. They have an offense that will keep them in this game with the Saints. They have averaged 407.3 yards per game in their last seven.
The Saints remain overvalued from a 9-game winning streak. But they have since lost their last two outright with a 21-24 loss to the Eagles as 7.5-point favorites and a 29-32 loss to the Chiefs as 2.5-point dogs. They were outgained by 55 yards by Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. Then they were fortunate to even be that close against the Chiefs considering they were held to 285 yards and outgained by 126 yards by the Chiefs. Kansas City also had a 34 to 15 edge in first downs.
Drew Brees looked to return too early from a rib injury that sidelined him for a handful of games. He completed just 15-of-34 (44%) of his passes against the Chiefs for 234 yards. It was all dink and dunk, and he clearly missed having Michael Thomas, who is on the IR. Not to mention he is without both Tre'quan Smith and Deonte Harris at receiver as well. The Saints are so thin at the position that they cannot be trusted to get margin here against a Vikings team that will keep coming due to their elite offense.
Minnesota has won three of its last four meetings with New Orleans. The Vikings are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games following two or more consecutive losses. They are winning outright by an average of 7.5 points per game in this spot. Zimmer is 14-3 ATS following two or more consecutive losses as the coach of Minnesota. The Saints are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games following an ATS loss. Minnesota is 38-14 ATS in its last 52 games following a SU loss. Take the Vikings Friday.
|12-21-20||Steelers v. Bengals +14.5||Top||17-27||Win||100||10 h 50 m||Show|
20* Steelers/Bengals ESPN No-Brainer on Cincinnati +14.5
This line has gotten out of hand. The Pittsburgh Steelers are now laying more than two touchdowns to the Bengals, and it's time to pull the trigger on Cincinnati. The Bengals will bring a big effort here knowing this is a Primetime game with their division rival coming to town.
It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Bengals, who have gone 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. They are coming off a misleading 7-30 loss to the Cowboys in which they lost fumbles on each of their first three possessions. I think it's safe to say that's not going to happen again. And keep in mind they outgained the Cowboys by 37 yards in that misleading loss.
There has been nothing misleading about Pittsburgh losing its last two games to Buffalo and Washington. They lost 17-23 at home to Washington as 5.5-point favorites and 15-26 at Buffalo as 2-point dogs. Their offense is broken right now as they have failed to reach 50 rushing yards in five of their last seven games. And their defense is banged up as the losses at LB of Bud Dupree and Devin Bush have really taken their toll.
Cincinnati has actually been playing its best defense of the season down the stretch. The Bengals have held three of their last four opponents to 20 points or fewer. And they just held the Cowboys to 272 total yards last week. Their defense can keep them in this game, and I expect their offense cant' be any worse than it has been in recent weeks. Ryan Finley started three games as a rookie in 2019, including a 16-10 loss to the Steelers. Getting a whole week of practice preparing to be the starter will help him succeed in this spot.
The Steelers are 0-6 ATS in their last six December games. The Bengals are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit home loss. Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games. The Bengals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss. Bet the Bengals Monday.
|12-20-20||Chiefs -3 v. Saints||Top||32-29||Push||0||74 h 2 m||Show|
20* Chiefs/Saints Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Kansas City -3
After failing to cover the spread in five consecutive games, it's time to 'buy low' on the Kansas City Chiefs as only 3-point favorites over the Saints. The Chiefs are the best team in the NFL and should be favored by 3 or more against any team in the NFL.
The Chiefs impressed me last week as they managed to beat the Dolphins despite committing four turnovers. They had 448 total yards against a good Miami defense. I was fortunate to get the cover with the Dolphins +7.5 in that game as they kicked a FG with 16 seconds left to only lose by 6. Kansas City is now 12-1 this season with 11 wins by 3 points or more.
The Saints are overvalued after winning nine of their last 10 and covering five of their last six coming in. But keep in mind that nine of those 10 games came against teams with losing record, so they have been feasting on an easy schedule. They finally had their winning streak snapped last week in an upset loss to the Eagles as 7.5-point favorites. They gave up 413 total yards to Jalen Hurts and the Eagles.
I know Drew Brees is expected to return this week, but I think he is coming back early from a terrible rib injury. He waited until his team finally lost and now is coming back. And now he won't have his favorite receiver in Michael Thomas, who has been place on IR and an ankle injury. Thomas was starting to really form a chemistry with Taysom Hill. He is arguably the best receiver in the NFL and without him I don't see the Saints being able to keep up with the Chiefs.
The Saints are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games after having won four of their last five games coming in. The Chiefs are 30-13 ATS in their last 43 games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of their last seven games coming in. The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Chiefs Sunday.
|12-20-20||Patriots v. Dolphins -1||12-22||Win||100||4 h 43 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Dolphins -1
The Miami Dolphins are 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall with one of those losses coming to the Kansas City Chiefs in which they covered. This team has been underrated all season and has made me a lot of money. And I'm going to continue to ride with them here against the Patriots.
The Dolphins are the team that has everything to play for right now at 8-5 on the season and not only alive for a wild card, but also the AFC East title. They have been winning behind one of the best defenses in the NFL that gives up just 18.8 points per game this season. And Tua Tagovailoa is getting comfortable in this offense, throwing for 296 yards against the Bengals and then 316 against the Chiefs in his last two games.
New England is 6-7 this season and basically eliminated from playoff contention. They had the wind lifted from their sails in a 3-24 loss to the Rams last week. And I question their level of motivation now this week here against the Miami Dolphins. I have no doubt the Dolphins will be the more motivated team, especially wanting to avenge their Week 1 loss at New England.
This Patriots offense is so pitiful that it cannot be trusted to do much against the Dolphins here. They are averaging just 230 yards per game in their last three games. They had 179 yards against the Cardinals, 291 against the Chargers and 220 against the Rams.
The Dolphins are 9-1 ATS when playing with six or less days' rest this season. Miami is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games. Miami is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game. These four trends combine for a 28-1 system backing Miami. Take the Dolphins Sunday.
|12-20-20||49ers v. Cowboys +3.5||33-41||Win||100||4 h 43 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Dallas Cowboys +3.5
Fading the depleted San Francisco 49ers here down the stretch has been a very profitable move. The 49ers are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. Yet here they are overvalued again laying 3.5 points on the road to the Dallas Cowboys. I'll gladly fade them again in this spot.
The 49ers have been hit so hard by injuries all season. And I think a big blow that is getting overlooked here is Deebo Samuel's injury. Samuel is their best playmaker on offense, and without him their offense has simply been vanilla. He returned recently and performed well with 11 receptions for 133 yards against the Rams three weeks ago, and six receptions for 73 yards against the Bills two weeks ago. But he left early against Washington last week and they struggled offensively with just 15 points.
While the 49ers have nothing but pride to play for the rest of the way, the Cowboys (4-9) are still alive in the pathetic NFC East. There is a good chance both the Giants and Washington lose this week as they are both nearly touchdown underdogs to the Browns and Seahawks, respectively. So this is a great opportunity for them to make up some more ground.
The Cowboys have gone 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall. They pulled the upset at Minnesota, nearly upset the Steelers, and they crushed the Bengals 30-7 last week. I like the momentum of this team right now and think they are flying way under the radar. I have the Cowboys lined as a favorite in this matchup given the motivation and the injury situation for the 49ers. So getting +3.5 at home here is an excellent value in a game the Cowboys should win outright.
The 49ers are 0-6 ATS vs. bad defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game this season. They are actually losing by 13.6 points per game in this spot. The Cowboys are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games as home underdogs. Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.
|12-19-20||Panthers +8 v. Packers||Top||16-24||Push||0||10 h 58 m||Show|
20* Panthers/Packers NFC No-Brainer on Carolina +8
This is the role I like backing the Carolina Panthers in. The Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as underdogs this season, while they are 0-3 ATS as a favorite this season. They have won four of those games as a dog outright. They also only lost to the Chiefs 31-33 as a 10-point dog. So they can hang with the Packers here.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Panthers, who have lost seven of their last eight straight up. But they continue to show up every week, and keep in mind that six of those seven losses came by only one score. So they have been competitive, and they will continue to fight hard for head coach Matt Rhule to close out the season. They are relishing this opportunity to face the No. 1 seed in the NFC in the Green Bay Packers and test themselves.
Conversely, it's a great time to 'sell high' on the Packers, who have won three striaght and five of their last six. They failed to cover as a 9.5-point favorite at Detroit last week, and they should not be favored by 8 points here over a Panthers team that just recently beat Detroit 20-0 for their last victory. This line should be under a touchdown, and we'll gladly take the 8 points with the Panthers.
Carolina is just 4-9 SU this season, but in seven of those losses the Panthers have had the ball late in the fourth quarter with a chance to win or send the game to overtime. "It's definitely a hump that we want to get over," Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater said. "We are capable of getting over it, but we have to execute when that situation comes. And that starts with me being better in those situations."
The Panthers will get a big boost with the return of WR D.J. Moore after he missed the Denver game last week due to COVID-19. Moore has 50 catches for 924 yards and four touchdowns this season. He has been Bridgewater's go-to guy and makes a big difference for this offense. I don't think his return is being factored into this line enough.
Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Green Bay) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against an opponent off two straight games where they committed one or fewer turnovers are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Green Bay) - off a divisional road win, a top team winning 75% or more of their games in the second half of the season are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
The Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games. As stated before, the Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as underdogs. The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a SU win. Roll with the Panthers Saturday.
|12-17-20||Chargers +3 v. Raiders||Top||30-27||Win||100||10 h 39 m||Show|
20* Chargers/Raiders AFC West No-Brainer on Los Angeles +3
There's going to be some value with the Chargers here down the stretch due to their 4-9 record. They finally got a win Sunday over the Falcons to give them some positive vibes moving forward. And now they want to end their 9-game losing streak against AFC West opponents and get revenge on the Raiders here Thursday night.
The Chargers are so much better than their 4-9 record would indicate. All three of their AFC West losses this season have come down to the final play. They lost on Harison Butker's 58-yard field goal against the Chiefs, lost on Drew Lock's TD to K.J. Hamler and lost to the Raiders when Justin Herbert's TD pass to Donald Parham was overturned on replay. Of the Charger's 20 losses over the past two seasons, 16 have been by one score. They are simply unlucky.
The numbers show the Chargers are the better team. They are averaging 383.0 yards per game on offense and giving up just 337.1 yards per game on defense this season, outgaining opponents by 45.9 yards per game. The Raiders average 369.2 yards per game on offense and give up 384.1 yards per game on defense, getting outgained by 14.9 yards per game.
The Chargers were the better team in their first meeting and should have beaten the Raiders, too. Los Angeles outgained Las Vegas 440 to 320 in that game, or by 120 yards. The Chargers have by far the superior defense in this matchup. They have now allowed 351 or fewer yards in eight consecutive games coming in.
The Raiders are playing awful right now. They are 1-3 SU in their last four games and would be on a four-game losing streak if not for the hail mary against the winless Jets to win 31-28. Their defense is allowing 37.5 points per game during this stretch, which led to the firing of defensive coordinator Paul Guenther.
But it's not going to make much of a difference here with all of the key pieces the Raiders are missing on defense. They are without several starters including DE Clelin Ferrell, LB Nicholas MOrrow, CB Trayvon Mullen and S Johnathan Abram. They have allowed over 200 rushing yards in consecutive games against the Jets and Colts. And they simply cannot get pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Justin Herbert is going to have a field day. He threw for 326 yards and two touchdowns in his first meeting with the Raiders. Austin Ekeler is back healthy at RB and should have a monster game as well.
Plays on underdogs or PK (LA Chargers) - after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of two straight games against an opponent that is off a loss by 10 points or more are 75-36 (67.6%) ATS since 1983. The Chargers are 32-15-4 ATS in their last 51 games as road underdogs. Bet the Chargers Thursday.
|12-14-20||Ravens v. Browns UNDER 46.5||Top||47-42||Loss||-110||9 h 56 m||Show|
20* Ravens/Browns ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 46.5
This will be the 2nd meeting between the Ravens and Browns this season. I always like to look to the UNDER in the 2nd meeting between teams in a division rivalry because they are so familiar with one another. They are able to make adjustments from the first meeting, and those adjustments almost always favor the defenses.
Weather will play a factor here as well, which is a big reason I'm on the UNDER. It's going to be 30 degrees with 15 to 25 MPH winds are kickoff tonight in Cleveland. And we've seen how wind and cold weather has affected the scoring conditions in these Cleveland home games recently.
Indeed, the UNDER is 3-0 in Cleveland's last three home games. They lost to the Raiders 6-16 for 22 combined points, beat the Texans 10-7 for 17 combined points and beat the Eagles 22-17 for 39 combined points. The UNDER is 3-0 in Baltimore's last three road games with combined scores of 34, 40 and 33 points as well.
These are two of the best rushing offenses in the NFL as well. The Ravens average 33 attempts for 169 yards per game on the ground, while the Browns average 32 attempts for 158 yards per game. So both teams are going to run the football a lot, especially with the winds, and that will keep the clock moving and make the game fly right by.
Both defenses have been above average at stopping the run, too. The Ravens give up 112 rushing yards per game, while the Browns allow just 104 rushing yards per game. In their first meeting, the Browns held the Ravens to 107 rushing yards on 30 attempts. Cleveland had 138 yards on 27 attempts but fell way behind early. This rematch should be much closer, which will have both teams sticking to their running games.
Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 42.5 to 49 points (Cleveland) - off an upsset win as an underdog, a top level team that wins 75% or more of their games are 70-29 (70.7%) since 1983. There's so much at stake here in terms of the playoff race that this game will be played close to the vest. Look for it to go well UNDER the number. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
|12-13-20||Steelers v. Bills -2||Top||15-26||Win||100||12 h 23 m||Show|
20* Steelers/Bills NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Buffalo -2
The Buffalo Bills came back from their bye week pissed off from their hail mary loss to the Cardinals. If not for that play, the Bills would be on a six-game winning streak. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall and playing their best football of the season. And now they are ready to prove they are Super Bowl contenders by knocking off the Steelers tonight.
The Bills came back from their bye and crushed the Chargers 27-17. Then they went on the road last week and made easy work of the 49ers in a 34-24 win as 2-point dogs. They racked up 449 total yards against a very good San Francisco defense. Josh Allen threw for 375 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in the win. What more does this guy have to do to be mentioned among the best quarterbacks in the NFL?
The Bills are remarkably healthy right now due to that bye week. And their defense is getting back to being the same dominant unit that it was a year ago. And that's what makes this team so scary now. They have an elite offense and an above average defense now that they are healthy in the secondary on that side of the ball, which hasn't been the case for much of the season.
While the Bills are healthy, injuries are mounting up for the Steelers. They are extremely thin at LB now without Bud Dupree and Devin Bush, plus Vince Williams and Robert Spillane are out for this game. CB Joe Haden is out and CB Steven Nelson is questionable, leaving the Steelers extremely thin in the secondary and at linebacker. The Bills should be able to do whatever they want to against the Steelers here.
It's also a terrible spot for the Steelers. They had their bye week stolen from them early in the season, and now they are a very tired team because of it. They will be playing their 3rd game in 12 days here after playing Baltimore last Wednesday and Washington on Monday. They blew a 14-0 lead over Washington as Alex Smith diced up their secondary, leading Washington to a 23-17 victory. And I always like fading teams after they've had a long winning streak come to an end. Pittsburgh's perfect season is no longer, and I think they could have a hangover effect here against the Bills.
Buffalo is 9-2 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. Pittsburgh is 0-5 ATS in its last five December games. The Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite. The spot, injuries and momentum all favor the Bills in this matchup tonight. Bet the Bills Sunday.
|12-13-20||Chiefs v. Dolphins +7.5||33-27||Win||100||91 h 21 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Dolphins +7.5
The Miami Dolphins are now 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. They have been the most profitable team in the NFL to back over the past two months. And it still feels like they are getting no respect here as 7.5-point home underdogs to the Kansas City Chiefs.
It hasn’t mattered whether it has been Ryan Fitzpatrick or Tua at quarterback. The Dolphins keep winning because they play team football and tremendous defense. They give up just 17.7 points per game this season and have forced at least one turnover in all 12 games. They just do everything fundamentally sound, which is the sign of a great head coach in Brian Flores.
The Chiefs continue to be overvalued week after week due to winning the Super Bowl last year and with an 11-1 record. They have now gone 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. Although they have won all four games SU, all four wins have come by 6 points or less. They have bene life and death with the Panthers, Raiders and Broncos during this stretch. And it’s not like any of those teams are any good.
It just feels like the Chiefs are going through the motions right now and just ready to get to the playoffs. They already have the AFC West locked up. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are still fighting to win the AFC East. They are just one game back of the Buffalo Bills for 1st place in their division. They are the team playing like their pants are on fire right now, not the Chiefs.
Kansas City is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games after gaining 400 or more total yards in three consecutive games. Miami is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games overall dating back to last season. The Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games. Miami is 13-3 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last two seasons. The Dolphins are 9-1 ATS off two or more consecutive unders over the last three years. Take the Dolphins Sunday.
|12-13-20||Vikings v. Bucs -6.5||Top||14-26||Win||100||91 h 21 m||Show|
25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Bucs -6.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers really needed a bye last week after going 12 straight weeks without one. Now they’ll be rejuvenated to bounce back from two straight losses to the Chiefs and Rams by 3 points each. And a bye will help a team like the Bucs more than most just because they have so many new faces this year on offense for Tom Brady to try and form a chemistry with.
Now the Bucs take on a Vikings team that was very fortunate to win their last two games against the lowly Panthers and Jaguars. They needed a last-second TD to beat the Panthers 28-27, and they needed overtime to beat the Jaguars 27-24. That’s a Jaguars team that has now lost 11 straight. And don’t forget they were upset by the Cowboys the week prior as a 7-point home favorite.
This is a Vikings defense that Tom Brady and company should light up. Minnesota gives up 27.4 points and 382.7 yards per game this season. This feels like a game Kirk Cousins is going to have to be a gun slinger to try and keep up, and that’s exactly the type of game that I like to fade the Vikings in because Cousins is terrible when he has to do it all.
The key to stopping the Vikings is stopping Dalvin Cook, and there’s no team in the NFL better equipped to do that than the Bucs. They lead the NFL in rushing defense, giving up just 74 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry. They also rank near the top of the league in total defense, allowing just 329.9 yards per game.
Plays on any team (Tampa Bay) - a good offensive team (5.4 to 5.8 YPP) against a team with a terrible defense (5.8 YPP or more), after being outgained by 100 or more total yards in their previous game are 36-7 (83.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bruce Arians is 13-4 ATS off a home loss as a head coach. Arians is also 21-9 ATS in December games as a head coach. Bet the Bucs Sunday.
|12-10-20||Patriots v. Rams -4.5||Top||3-24||Win||100||10 h 56 m||Show|
20* Patriots/Rams Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Los Angeles -4.5
The Los Angeles Rams have the best stats in the entire NFL this season. They are 8-4 SU & 7-5 ATS this season but the numbers on offense and defense tell the story. They are gaining 395.3 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play on offense while giving up just 291.6 yards per game and 4.9 per play on defense. They are outgaining their opponents by 103.4 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play this season, both the best numbers in the NFL.
The racked up 463 yards on the Cardinals last week and held them to just 232 yards, outgaining them by 231 yards. It was as an impressive performance as I’ve seen this season from them. And don’t forget they just beat the Bucs and Seahawks recently as well, so they have been playing great against some of the best teams in the NFL.
The Patriots aren’t one of those best teams. They are very fortunate to be 6-6 this season. Their last two wins over the Cardinals and Chargers were fraudulent final scores. They were outgained by 119 yards by the Cardinals and held to just 179 total yards, but found a way to win 20-17. And last week they only managed 291 total yards and only outgained the Chargers by 33 yards in their 45-0 win, which featured several big plays on special teams.
Cam Newton threw for just 84 yards and 4.0 YPA against the Cardinals and 69 yards and 3.0 YPA against the Chargers. They just can’t keep winning with him playing so poorly, especially not here in this huge step up in class against a motivated Rams team that is trying to win the NFC West. Adding to their motivation is their loss to the Patriots in the Super Bowl a few years back, which several players on this team clearly have not forgotten. They will be looking for revenge tonight.
“That’s just a loss,” DT Aaron Donald said. “I try to not thing about the loss. But you know, this is definitely a game that’s going to give you a little bit more push just for a little payback.”
With Newton struggling to throw the football, the Patriots have relied on their rushing attack, which ranks third in the NFL at 150.9 yards per game. Well, the Rams are equipped to stop them. They have the league’s third-best rushing defense, allowing just 93.1 yards per game on the ground. Los Angeles hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher all season long.
Sean McVay is a perfect 8-0 ATS after a dominant performance with 34-plus minutes of time of possession and 24 or more first downs last game as the coach of the Rams. The Patriots are 1-6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win. Bet the Rams Thursday.
|12-08-20||Cowboys +8 v. Ravens||17-34||Loss||-110||11 h 47 m||Show|
15* Cowboys/Ravens FOX ANNIHILATOR on Dallas +8
The spot really favors the Dallas Cowboys tonight. They’ve had nearly two weeks to get ready for Baltimore after last playing Washington on Thanksgiving. Meanwhile, the Ravens come in on a short week after playing the Steelers on Wednesday last week. The Cowboys will be the fresher, more prepared team for this one.
The Ravens have lost a lot of practice time with many of the players that will be playing tonight as well due to Covid-19. They will get several players back for this game, including QB Lamar Jackson, but they won’t be sharp due to the lack of practice. And it’s not like they were playing very well with him anyway.
Indeed, the Ravens are 1-4 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall. They were upset by the Steelers, Patriots and Titans. They have been outgained in three of their last four games, getting outgained by a total of 256 yards in those four games combined. And they still are missing several key players for this one.
There’s clearly value with the Cowboys here tonight. They go from 3-point favorites over Washington to now 8-point dogs to Baltimore. That’s an 11-point adjustment. They have thrived in this big underdog role in recent weeks, too. They nearly beat Pittsburgh outright in a 19-24 loss as a 14-point dog three games back. And they did upset Minnesota 31-28 as a 7-point road dog two games ago.
Dallas is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite. Baltimore is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss. It’s asking a lot for the Ravens to win this game by more than a touchdown given the awful spot for them and the great one for Dallas tonight. Bet the Cowboys Tuesday.
|12-07-20||Washington Football Team +7 v. Steelers||Top||23-17||Win||100||68 h 49 m||Show|
20* Washington/Pittsburgh FOX No-Brainer on Washington +7
This is an awful spot for the Pittsburgh Steelers for a number of reasons. For starters, they will be playing on a short week after having to play the Ravens on Wednesday after the game was pushed back a couple different times due to Covid-19. The Steelers really haven’t even had a bye week as it was interrupted by the Titans earlier this year. So they have to be a tired team right now.
You are paying a tax to back the Steelers right now too because they are still undefeated at 11-0 on the season. And now the Steelers just lost starting LB Bud Dupree to a torn ACL against the Ravens. That’s an even bigger loss now considering they were already playing without fellow starting LB Devin Bush. Those two guys are the keys to their defense in the middle. RB James Connor, DE Stehpon Tuitt and C Maurkice Pouncey are all questionable this week due to Covid-19 as well.
Meanwhile, Washington comes in rested after playing last Thursday on Thanksgiving and will be fresh and ready to go. Washington will also be motivated as they sit atop the NFC East standings tied with the Giants, but they are in second place due to losing both head-to-head meetings. So they need wins more right now than the Giants do.
And they are playing like it. Washington is 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six games overall with all three losses coming by 3 points or less and by a combined 7 points. And the three wins all came in blowout fashion with a 25-3 win over Dallas, a 20-9 win over Cincinnati and another 41-16 win over Dallas.
Alex Smith has given the offense new life since taking over for an injury Kyle Allen four weeks ago. He has topped 300 yards passing twice, and in the other two games he didn’t Washington got its running game going with 164 yards against the Bengals and 182 more against Dallas. So this offense is showing some versatility.
But what really makes Washington a great bet week in and week out is a defense that is one of the most underrated in the NFL. They are giving up just 22.1 points and 309.5 yards per game. They have arguably the best defensive line in the NFL, which is going to be key here against a Steelers team that only likes to throw the football because they cannot run it. The Steelers only average 99 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry this season.
Ron Rivera is 45-21 ATS after playing his last game on the road in all games as a head coach. Mike Tomlin is 7-17 ATS after having won eight or more of their last 10 games as the coach of the Steelers. This is also a sandwich spot for the Steelers after beating their biggest rivals in the Ravens 19-14 last week and now having another huge game on deck at Buffalo in AFC action next week. This is definitely a game that Washington can win outright tonight given the favorable spot for them and the awful spot for Pittsburgh. Bet Washington Monday.
|12-06-20||Rams v. Cardinals +3||38-28||Loss||-120||43 h 55 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Arizona Cardinals +3
I lost with Arizona last week. And because they lost to the Patriots, there is even more value with them this week. They outgained the Patriots by 119 yards and held them to 179 yards but found a way to lose. Their kicker has not cost them two games this year as he missed a 45-yarder which allowed the Patriots to go down and kick the game-winning 50-yarder at the buzzer.
The Cardinals were also stopped twice from the 1-yard line right before halftime which turned out to be a 7-point swing. And they had a phantom late hit on Cam Newton on the final drive on a 3rd-and-13 that set the Patriots up in field goal range. They really deserved to win that game. But now that the Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, this is a great ‘buy low’ spot on them.
I don’t know how Jared Goff can be trusted as a road favorite here. The Rams had four turnovers again last week and just 308 total yards in a 20-23 upset loss to the 49ers. Goff goes hot and cold, but Kyler Murray shows up every week and I trust him more. The Cardinals want serious revenge from six straight losses to the Rams in this series as well.
Arizona is 30-15 ATS in its last 45 home games off a loss by 6 points or less. The Cardinals are 47-26 ATS in their last 73 home games off two or more consecutive losses. Arizona is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog. The Cardinals have just two losses in 11 games by more than 3 points this season, and both came on the road to the Panthers and Seahawks.
Plays on underdogs or PK (Arizona) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games in the second half of the season are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS since 1983. Roll with the Cardinals Sunday.
|12-06-20||Browns +5.5 v. Titans||Top||41-35||Win||100||40 h 50 m||Show|
25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Browns +5.5
The Tennessee Titans are overvalued after winning in upset fashion in back-to-back weeks over the Ravens and Colts. Now they are 5.5-point favorites here against a Cleveland Browns team with the same record (8-3) as them. It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Titans this week.
The Titans took advantage of a banged-up Colts team last week that was missing several key players on defense and offense due to either injury or Covid-19. So their 45-26 blowout win has them overvalued, and now they are asking to get margin here against the Browns.
The Titans are just 2-5 ATS as favorites this season. One of those covers was as a 6.5-point favorite over the Bears in a 7-point win. The other was as 3.5-point favorites over the Texans where they won by 6 in overtime. So they haven’t won a single game as a favorite by more than one score all season.
It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Browns, who are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. But they have gone 4-2 SU during this stretch. And they deserved to cover against the Jaguars last week but let them in the back door after a phantom roughing the passer penalty in a 27-25 win. They took the Jaguars for granted, but they won’t do the same this week. They’ll go back to feeling disrespected here and give their best effort.
The Browns get their best defensive player in Myles Garret back from Covid-19 this week after he missed the past few games. He’ll wreak havoc on a banged-up Titans offensive line that is starting backups at both tackle positions. And they are also missing key blocker and receiver Jonnu Smith at tight end. Guard Rodger Safford is also questionable at guard.
Stopping the run is the key to stopping the Titans and Derrick Henry. The Browns have done a good job of that this season in allowing 108 rushing yards per game. The Titans haven’t really stopped anyone. They are giving up 25.9 points and 384.1 yards per game on the season.
The Browns have one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL at 161 yards per game and 5.0 per carry. And they even played without Nick Chubb for several games, but he’s back healthy and doing his thing now alongside Kareem Hunt. The Titans give up 116 rushing yards per game. Tennessee is also 31st in pressure rate, so Baker Mayfield will have time to throw the ball and make plays through the air. Mayfield is averaging 9.7 yards per game in his three games against teams that rank in the Bottom 5 in pressure rate this season.
The Titans are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games off an upset win by 14 points or more as a road underdog. Tennessee is 19-35 ATS in its last 54 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. The underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Cleveland is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Browns Sunday.
|12-06-20||Saints v. Falcons +3||Top||21-16||Loss||-115||40 h 50 m||Show|
20* NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons +3
It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the New Orleans Saints this week. They have won eight straight games coming in and have covered four in a row as well. And they are coming off a 31-3 win over the Denver Broncos, who didn’t have a quarterback last week.
But this Saints offense hasn’t done much with Taysom Hill as their starter. They only managed 292 total yards against the Broncos last week. And the Falcons should be a lot better against him having just faced him two weeks ago in their 24-9 loss.
The Falcons got out to a 9-3 lead but had to settle for field goals on each of their first three scoring drives. The Saints took over in the second half and dominated. The Falcons have not forgotten, and they want revenge in a big way here. There’s a nice system on teams facing each other twice in three weeks. The team that lost the first meeting has gone 19-4 ATS in the last 23 in the second meeting.
The Falcons are still playing hard for Raheem Morris and have gone 4-2 with him as their interim coach with one of those a 1-point loss. They are coming off a 43-6 beat down of the Raiders last week that really showed their potential. And now they are expected to get Julio Jones back in the lineup this week from a hamstring injury after he was forced out of the Saints game last time.
The injury situation is not great for the Saints. They have key injuries at cornerback, defensive line and offensive line. They will be without CB Janoris Jenkins and could be without CB Patrick Robinson. DE Marcus Davenport is out, and T Terron Armstead is out with Covid-19. DT Sheldon Rankins is questionable as well. And obviously Hill is a downgrade from Brees at QB.
The Falcons are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as a home underdog. Atlanta is 4-0 ATS in its last four December games. Take the Falcons Sunday.
|12-02-20||Ravens v. Steelers -10||14-19||Loss||-110||4 h 5 m||Show|
15* Ravens/Steelers AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -10
The Baltimore Ravens will be one of the worst teams in the NFL for one game tonight with all they are missing due to Covid-19. And with the Steelers being the best team in the NFL to this point at 10-0 and chasing a perfect season, they should have no problem putting away the Ravens by double-digits today.
The Steelers already hate the Ravens, but that hatred will be even deeper today for the way the Ravens have messed with their schedule this season due to Covid-19. They lost a bye week because of it and want to make a statement here. And winning by margin hasn’t been a problem the last few weeks as they have won by 26 over Cincinnati and by 24 over Jacksonville. Baltimore is a team on Cincinnati and Jacksonville’s level right now with all they are missing.
The Ravens will be without QB Lamar Jackson, TE Mark Andrews, LB Matthew Judos, WR Willie Snead, LS Morgan Cox, S Geno Stone, G Matt Skura, DE Jihad Ward, G Patrick Mekari, LB Pernell McPhee, RB Mark Ingram, RB JK Dobbins DT Justin Madubuike, DT Brandon Williams, TE Nick Boyle, T Ronnie Stanley and DE Calais Campbell tonight. Almost all of those players played against the Steelers in their 24-28 loss in the first meeting.
The Steelers got good news on the injury front with WR JuJu Smith-Schuster and TE Vance McDonald both expected to play. They will be missing RB James Conner, but they haven’t been able to run the football all season, so that won’t be an issue. They have just been throwing on teams at will with Comeback Player of the Year candidate Ben Roethlisberger having one of his best seasons as a pro. And the Steelers have one of the top defenses in the NFL, giving up just 17.4 points per game this season.
Washed up Robert Griffin III will get the start at QB for the Ravens, and the Steelers will make life hell on him for four quarters. Pittsburgh is 9-1 ATS vs. awful passing defenses like Baltimore that allow 64% completions or worse over the last two seasons. The Ravens are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a SU loss. The Ravens weren’t even playing good when healthy, going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall. Take the Steelers Wednesday.
|11-30-20||Seahawks v. Eagles +5.5||Top||23-17||Loss||-105||57 h 43 m||Show|
20* Seahawks/Eagles ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia +5.5
We’re buying at the lowest possible point here on the Philadelphia Eagles. They are coming off back-to-back losses to the Giants and Browns and now are catching 5.5 points at home to the Seattle Seahawks. And now the Eagles are finally out of first place in the NFC East so they need to be playing with a sense of urgency this week. I just love the spot for them.
And the Eagles have played their best football at home this season. They have just one loss by more than 2 points in their five home games this season. They have gotten a lot healthier on offense in recent weeks, and their defense is still playing at a very high level.
Indeed, the Eagles are allowing just 342.7 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play this season. They have the far superior defense in this matchup. The Seahawks give up 28.7 points per game, 434.9 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play. That’s why it is tough to trust them to get margin because the back door is always open against them with their pathetic defense.
Seattle is 7-3 this season but five of those wins came by a single score and the other two were against the Falcons in Week 1 and the 49ers a few weeks back when they were an injury-ravaged team. The Seahawks are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three road games with losses to the Cardinals by 3, the Bills by 10 and the Rams by 7.
Philadelphia is 40-22 ATS in its last 62 home games after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three games coming in. Bet the Eagles Monday.
|11-29-20||49ers +7 v. Rams||Top||23-20||Win||100||29 h 33 m||Show|
20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on San Francisco 49ers +7
This is a great spot to ‘buy low’ on the San Francisco 49ers, who have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall. But those losses came against three of the best teams in the NFL in the Seahawks, Packers and Saints. And they were more competitive than the scores showed in all three. They actually outgained the Saints by 44 yards and the Seahawks by 1 yard, and they were only outgained by 68 yards by the Packers.
Now the 49ers come off their bye week, and they needed a bye more than anyone with all of their injuries. And they will be getting some key pieces back this week in WR Samuel, CB Sherman, RB Mostert and DT Kinlaw. And they already beat the Rams 24-16 as 2-point home underdogs in their first meeting this season. Now they are 7-point road dogs in the rematch, which is simply too high.
It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Rams after back-to-back wins and covers over the Seahawks and Bucs. Now the Rams will be on a short week here after winning in Tampa Bay on Monday Night Football. They are at a huge rest disadvantage here facing a 49ers team off their bye. And they are feeling fat and happy after beating both of those teams. This has letdown spot written all over it.
The 49ers are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take the 49ers Sunday.
|11-29-20||Chargers v. Bills OVER 52.5||Top||17-27||Loss||-110||25 h 28 m||Show|
25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Chargers/Bills OVER 52.5
This game has shootout written all over it between the Los Angeles Chargers and Buffalo Bills Sunday. These are two of the best offenses in the NFL, especially when it comes to throwing the football. They are the 2nd and 3rd passing offenses in the league. And the conditions will be prime for scoring in Buffalo for this time of year with 46 degrees and 10 MPH winds at kickoff forecasted.
This Buffalo offense is hitting on all cylinders right now. They are scoring 27.2 points per game on the season and are coming off 44 and 30-point efforts against the Seahawks and Cardinals, respectively. Now their offense should torch a Los Angeles Chargers defense that has allowed at least 28 points in seven consecutive games.
That includes 29 points to the Jaguars, 31 to the Broncos, 29 to the Dolphins and 28 to the Jets. Those are the 21st, 27th, 29th and 32nd offenses in the NFL this season, so they are giving up big points against even poor offenses. So you can imagine what the Bills are going to do to them, especially with the Chargers being without four key defenders in DE Ingram, CB Hayward, CB Harris and LB Nwosu. They allow 27.3 points per game on the season.
But the Chargers have the offense to make up for their poor defense. Justin Herbert is the Rookie of the Year right now with what he is doing in the passing game. He is guiding the Chargers to 26.0 points per game this season. He is completing 68% of his passes for 2,699 yards with a 22-to-6 TD/INT ratio this year. And there’s a good chance he gets back a huge weapon this week in RB Austin Ekeler.
The OVER is 7-0 in Chargers last seven games overall with combined scores of 69, 57, 68, 61, 57, 50 and 62 points. That’s an average of 60.5 combined points per game. This 52.5-point total isn’t nearly high enough today for these two games as we should see 60-plus combined points here. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|11-29-20||Cardinals -125 v. Patriots||17-20||Loss||-125||25 h 28 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Arizona Cardinals ML -125
I like this spot for the Arizona Cardinals. They have failed to cover the spread in each of their last three games even though they were competitive in all three, so this is a ‘buy low’ opportunity. All three games came against the Dolphins, Bills and Seahawks who are all playoff teams currently. Now they get extra rest after losing a tough one to the Seahawks last Thursday in what was a bad spot for them.
Now they face a New England Patriots team that just can’t keep any momentum going. The Patriots’ shot to make the playoffs went by the wayside last week as they were upset by the Houston Texans. Now I can’t see them playing with much passion here against the Cardinals this week sitting at 4-6 on the season and out of the playoff race.
Not to mention, the Patriots haven’t been playing good football for months. They are 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall with their only good performance coming in an upset win over Baltimore in a monsoon. And clearly the Ravens are struggling over the last month too, so that win doesn’t look as good now. Their other six games were all poor performances.
The Patriots don’t have much speed on defense, so they struggle against speedy teams like the Cardinals. That was evident against the speed of the Texans last week. And it will be again this week against Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins and company. Plus the weather is going to be perfect in New England, which favors the Cardinals. It’s supposed to be 50 degrees with only 6 MPH winds at kickoff.
The Patriots give up 6.4 yards per play defensively while the Cardinals give up just 5.7 yards per play. The Cardinals average 6.3 yards per play on offense while the Patriots only average 5.8 yards per play. Arizona is outgaining its opponents by 0.6 yards per play this season, while New England is getting outgained by 0.6 yards per play.
The Cardinals are simply better everywhere and should be at least favored by a field goal minimum here. Arizona is 9-3-2 ATS in its last 14 road games. The Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with the Cardinals Sunday.
|11-26-20||Washington Football Team +3 v. Cowboys||Top||41-16||Win||100||52 h 42 m||Show|
20* Cowboys/Washington Thanksgiving Day FEAST on Washington +3
The Washington Football Team has quietly outgained five straight opponents by a combined a combined 549 yards, or by an average of 109.8 yards per game. They are playing their best football of the season with Alex Smith at quarterback. He has thrown for 881 yards in his last three games overall.
But what you really have to like about Washington is their defense, which has been one of the best units in the NFL this season. They give up just 22.7 points and 315.8 yards per game on the year. This defense limited the Cowboys to just 142 total yards in their first meeting, outgaining them by 255 yards in their 25-3 victory. I expect more of the same here. And there’s value with Washington considering the line was PK in the first meeting and now it’s +3.
The Cowboys are now getting too much respect from oddsmakers after covering their last two games against the Steelers as 14-point dogs and the Vikings as 7-point dogs. But they were fortunate to beat the Vikings last week because they were outgained by 54 yards and their pathetic defense still gave up 430 yards to the Vikings in the win.
And that’s where the advantage for Washington lies here is on the defensive side of the ball. The Cowboys give up 31.8 points and 386.4 yards per game this season. They can’t stop the run as they give up 154 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry. And Washington is going to be able to run the ball with Antonio Gibson, who had 430 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 4.5 per carry this season.
Washington is 20-5 ATS in its last 25 games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 6 or more yards per play in the second half of the season. Dallas is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games with a line of +3 to -3. The Cowboys are 1-7 ATS vs. NFC opponents this season. Dallas is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a favorite. The underdog is 28-13 ATS in the last 41 meetings. Bet Washington Thursday.
|11-26-20||Texans -2.5 v. Lions||41-25||Win||100||48 h 37 m||Show|
15* Texans/Lions Early Afternoon APPETIZER on Houston -2.5
The Houston Texans got off to a 1-6 start this season because they played the toughest schedule in the NFL up to that point. Their six losses were against the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers, Vikings, Titans and Packers. But they’ve started to play up to their potential now with the schedule easing up.
Indeed, the Texans are 2-1 SU in their last three games overall with their only loss coming on the road to the Browns 7-10 in terrible conditions as 4-point dogs. They beat the Jaguars on the road and last week topped the Patriots 27-20 at home. Deshaun Watson is having a monster season still and I trust him to get the job done here. Watson is completing 68.9% of his passes for 2,883 yards with a 20-to-5 TD/INT ratio this season, while also rushing for 269 yards and two scores.
The Detroit Lions have some terrible losses this season and are just 4-6 on the year. Their six losses have come by an average of 14.2 points per game. And three of their four wins have come by 3 points or less. So they are close to being a 1-9 football team. They sure looked the part last week when they were upset 20-0 on the road by the Carolina Panthers.
That was a Panthers team playing without Teddy Bridgewater. And the Lions just got worked. They managed just 185 yards of total offense in the loss against a Panthers defense that had given up 46 points to the Bucs the week prior. A big reason for the Lions’ struggles was all their injuries on offense, and it’s not going to get much better this week.
The Lions were without three of their best playmakers in Kenny Golloday, Danny Amendola and D’Andre Swift last week, and all three are questionable to return. Matthew Stafford didn’t take a single snap in practice last week because of a thumb injury, and he played with that injured thumb against the Panthers. And it’s not going to get much better for the Lions offensively on a short week this week.
Watson should be able to light up a Detroit defense that gives up 28.7 points and 397.4 yards per game this season. The Lions are 0-6 ATS after gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards last game over the last two seasons. Detroit is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games overall. The Lions are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their previous game. Take the Texans Thursday.
|11-23-20||Rams v. Bucs -3||Top||27-24||Loss||-130||155 h 39 m||Show|
25* MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Bucs -3
The Tampa Bay Bucs are clearly one of the best teams in the NFL. Their 38-3 loss to the Saints a couple weeks ago was an aberration. They’ve won four of their last five games overall with three of those wins coming by 23 points or more. They will handle the Rams on Monday Night Football.
Tom Brady came back motivated last week off that loss to the Saints and showed what he could do with all the weapons he has. They beat the Panthers 46-23 and it wasn’t even that close. They racked up 544 total yards and held the Panthers to 187, outgaining them by 357 yards. It was the most lopsided box score of the entire season in the NFL. And the Bucs didn’t have to punt once. Now Brady wants to redeem himself on the National TV stage here against the Rams. He leads a Bucs offense that is putting up 29.6 points per game this season.
The Bucs also have one of the best defenses in the NFL. They give up just 22.6 points and 300.3 yards per game. Now they’ll be facing an overrated Rams offense that cannot be trusted. The Rams only scored 23 points against the Seahawks last week in what was a perfect spot for them coming off their bye week. The Seahawks have been getting burnt defensively all season, and their defense actually looked pretty good in that game.
Goff isn’t very good when he is pressured, and the Bucs can get pressure. Not to mention Goff will likely be without LT Andrew Whitworth, who had to leave the game last week with a knee injury. And this is now a bad spot for the Rams having to make their 5th cross country trip of the season. No team in the NFL has flown more miles than the Rams this year. Los Angeles is 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS on the road this season with losses to the Bills, 49ers and Dolphins. Their only two road wins came against poor NFC East teams in Philadelphia and Washington.
The Rams are 23-47 ATS in their last 70 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Los Angels is 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 games as an underdog. Tampa Bay is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 games after scoring 35 or more points last game. Bet the Bucs Monday.
|11-22-20||Cowboys +7.5 v. Vikings||31-28||Win||100||119 h 28 m||Show|
15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Dallas Cowboys +7.5
This is a great ‘buy low’ spot on the Dallas Cowboys, who are just 2-7 SU & 1-8 ATS this season. They were either favored or a PK in six of their first seven games this season. But now they’ve been an underdog in their last two and a double-digit dog at that. And they should have covered both.
The Cowboys lost 9-23 to Philadelphia as 10-point dogs two games back and held the Eagles to just 222 total yards. But they had a fumble returned for a TD when they were only down 6 points late and driving for the winning score. And last time out they only lost 19-24 to the Steelers as 14-point dogs. They led most the way and deserved to beat the unbeaten Steelers.
Now the Cowboys are in a great spot this week coming off their bye week. They are ready to make a second half playoff run because when they look up at the NFC East standings they see that they are clearly right in the thick of the race despite their 2-7 record. That should have them rejuvenated coming off their bye. And they should be a lot healthier here too, plus they are expected to get Andy Dalton back at quarterback.
While it’s a great spot for the Cowboys, it’s a terrible one for the Vikings. They will be working on a short week here after a physical game against the Bears on Monday Night Football. And it’s a good ’sell high’ spot on the Vikings coming off three straight wins and covers. Now the Vikings are 7.5-point favorites here. They haven’t been more than a 4-point favorite in any other game this season, which shows they are now overvalued.
Dallas is 7-0 ATS vs. poor passing defenses that allow 260 or more passing yards per game after 8-plus games over the last three seasons. The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their previous game over the last three years. They are winning by 17.5 points per game in this spot. Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.
|11-22-20||Dolphins -3 v. Broncos||Top||13-20||Loss||-100||119 h 8 m||Show|
20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Dolphins -3
We keep backing the Miami Dolphins, and they keep on covering because oddsmakers and the betting public just don’t want to give them the respect they deserve. And I feel they are still being disrespected as only 3-point road favorites over the Broncos this week. The Dolphins are 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS this season and fighting for an AFC East title.
The Dolphins are underrated because they play great defense. They are only giving up 20.2 points per game this season. The offense has put up 28, 34 and 29 points in the three games started by Tua Tagovailoa. I don’t believe he’s a downgrade from Ryan Fitzpatrick, and the playbook actually gets bigger with Tua under center.
The Broncos are a mess right now. They have lost three of their last four and weren’t even competitive in any of the three losses. They were fortunate to come back from a 24-3 deficit to beat the Chargers in their only win. And keep in mind the Chargers were 3-point favorites over the Broncos in that game. The Dolphins are a lot better than the Chargers, and they proved that last week with their 29-21 win that wasn’t even as close as the final score. So they should be more than 3-point favorites here.
Justin Herbert had thrown for at least 250 yards in every game as a starter until he ran into this Dolphins defense. Herbert only went 20-of-32 for 187 yards against the Dolphins, and no Charger receiver managed even 40 receiving yards. This Miami defense is going to feast on Drew Lock or whoever starts for the Broncos this week.
Denver has committed at least one turnover in 16 consecutive games now. Lock threw four interceptions in their 12-37 road loss to the Las Vegas Raiders last week. And this Broncos defense has been pitiful, giving up at least 100 rushing yards in five of its last six, including 200-plus in two of the last three. The Dolphins should be able to do whatever they want offensively against this soft, banged up Broncos defense that allows 28.2 points per game this season.
Plays against any team (Denver) - with a poor turnover defensive forcing one or fewer turnovers per game, after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 48-22 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Dolphins are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall. Miami is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. Bet the Dolphins Sunday.
|11-22-20||Eagles +3.5 v. Browns||Top||17-22||Loss||-110||123 h 25 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Philadelphia Eagles +3.5
Miles Sanders, Alshon Jeffery, Dallas Goedert, Jalen Raegor, Jason Peters and Lane Johnson have all returned recently to bolster the Eagles’ offense. They didn’t all get in a full week of practice last week, but they should this week. And it should make all the difference as they bounce back from a bad loss to the Giants.
The Eagles were out of sync against the Giants, going just 1-for-12 on 3rd and 4th downs combined. They should be more in sync this week. And it was a great sign for them to rush for 156 yards on 23 attempts, averaging 6.8 yards per attempt. Which makes it even more puzzling hat they struggled on 3rd and 4th. But I expect them to get it worked out this week.
The Browns are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and are for some reason getting a lot of respect here as 3.5-point favorites. Remember, there’s really no home-field advantage in the NFL this year. So it’s basically suggesting the Browns are 3.5 points better on a neutral. I strongly believe the Eagles are the better team now that they are almost fully healthy.
This Cleveland offense has really struggled in scoring 10 or fewer points in three of its last four games overall. The loss of Odell Beckham Jr. is a big one because now teams can stack the box and try to stop their running game, which is their best asset. Baker Mayfield has been awful all season and won’t be able to make many plays against this Philadelphia defense that has been very good against the pass in allowing just 175.3 passing yards per game in their last four.
Plays on road games where the line is +3.5 to -3.5 (Philadelphia) - off a road loss, with a losing record on the season are 41-15 (73.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Browns are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a losing record. The Eagles are 2-1 ATS as an underdog this season with an upset win at San Francisco, a 2-point loss to Baltimore and a 9-point loss at Pittsburgh. Bet the Eagles Sunday.
|11-22-20||Falcons +5 v. Saints||9-24||Loss||-107||123 h 25 m||Show|
15* Falcons/Saints NFC South ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta +5
This is a great spot for the Atlanta Falcons. They are coming off their bye week and looking to make a playoff run in the second half of the season. They are one of the healthiest teams in the entire NFL and are starting to play up to their potential.
In fact, the Falcons are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. They are a Todd Gurley kneel down away from being 4-0 in the Raheem Morris era. Players have clearly responded well to him. They crushed the Vikings 40-23 on the road in his first game as head coach. Then that heartbreaking 22-23 home loss to the Lions, followed by a 25-17 win at Carolina and a 34-27 home win over Denver. And that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as they led 34-13 with under four minutes remaining.
This is a great time to ’sell high’ on the Saints off six straight wins. The first four all came by 6 points or fewer. Their 38-3 win over the Bucs two weeks ago has them overvalued. And their 27-13 win over the 49ers last week wasn’t nearly the blowout that the score would indicate. The Saints managed just 237 total yards against the 49ers but were +2 in turnovers. They have forced a combined seven turnovers the past two games. But now they’ll be up against a Falcons team that doesn’t turn the ball over. Atlanta has committed only eight turnovers in nine games this season.
Now the Saints will have to go on without Drew Brees. Say what you want about him getting older, but he is still one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. And now the Saints have to turn to Jameis Winston, who threw 30 interceptions last year with the Bucs and has always been a turnover machine. They may give Taysom Hill some snaps too, but either way this is a huge downgrade at quarterback, and it’s not being factored into the line enough. There’s tremendous value here on the Falcons catching 5 points off their bye and not having to face Brees.
The Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as road underdogs. Atlanta is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games overall. The Saints are only 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as home favorites. The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Take the Falcons Sunday.
|11-22-20||Steelers v. Jaguars +10||27-3||Loss||-110||123 h 24 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Jacksonville Jaguars +10
The Pittsburgh Steelers are the final unbeaten team in the NFL at 9-0 this season. With that perfect record comes expectations from the betting public and thus oddsmakers that are difficult to live up too. We saw that a few weeks ago when they barely survived in a 24-19 win over the lowly Cowboys. And after a blowout win over the Bengals last week, the Steelers are overvalued here against the Jaguars laying double-digits on the road.
This is the ultimate flat spot for the Steelers. They have the Ravens on deck Thursday night and are coming off that divisional win over the Bengals. This is a sandwich spot now and the Steelers won’t be 100% focused for it. They will clearly be looking ahead to that game against the Ravens.
The Jaguars have impressed me since returning from their bye week. Doug Marrone still has this team showing up every week and trying to beat everyone. And they’ll certainly be pumped to try to become the first team to take down the Steelers. They nearly upset the Packers last week in a 20-24 road loss as 14-point dogs. And they also nearly upset the Texans the week prior in a 25-27 loss as 6.5-point dogs.
The defense is playing better in holding those two elite offenses below 30 points. And their offense has gotten a boost from QB Jake Luton, who is expected to start for a third consecutive game here. Luton is completing 60.3% of his passes with two touchdowns and two interceptions while also rushing for a score. He should only get better with each game, and keep in mind he had great stats against the Texans and poor ones against the Packers because he was playing in a wind storm. It will be perfect weather in Jacksonville Sunday.
Plays against road favorites (Pittsburgh) - a good team outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game, after a win by 10 points or more are 53-20 (72.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Steelers are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games as road favorites of 7.5 to 14 points. Pittsburgh is 12-27-2 ATS in its last 41 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The underdog is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Take the Jaguars Sunday.
|11-19-20||Cardinals v. Seahawks -3||Top||21-28||Win||100||59 h 45 m||Show|
20* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Seattle Seahawks -3
The Seattle Seahawks want revenge from blowing a 27-14 lead at Arizona and losing 34-37 (OT) a few weeks ago. And I think they are just pissed off in general after losing three of their last four. So we are going to get an inspired Seattle Seahawks team Thursday night, and that’s the type of team I want to be backing.
It’s easy to explain the losses here of late. It’s simple, the schedule has gotten harder, and all the losses have been on the road to playoff contenders in Arizona, Buffalo and the LA Rams. Now they return back home where they are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this season. And playing at home on a short week here will be a big advantage for them.
Russell Wilson rarely loses back-to-back games, let alone two straight like he has. Wilson is 32-9 SU in his career off a loss. You know he’s going to be locked in here, especially after the Seahawks committed a combined 10 turnovers in the three road losses, mostly out of his hand. Against, I like a motivated Wilson with a chip on his shoulder.
The Arizona Cardinals are pathetic defensively now that they’ve lost their top pass rusher in Chandler Jones to a biceps injury. The Cardinals have allowed 30 or more points in three straight games coming in. They gave up 572 yards to the Seahawks in that first meeting, and things should come easy for the Seahawks here.
I think this is also a great ‘buy low’ spot on Seattle after losing three of their last four. The lookahead line for this game last week was Seahawks -5.5, and after Seattle lost to the Rams while Arizona had a miracle win on a Hail Mary over Buffalo, this line has now come back at -3. Keep in mind the Seahawks were 3.5-point road favorites at Arizona in their first meeting, and now they are only 3-point home favorites in the rematch. That’s an easy way to tell there is some serious line value with the Seahawks.
Seattle’s defense is getting healthier and as a result, better. They held the Rams to 23 points last week. That was a Rams team coming off a bye with two weeks to prepare for this Seattle defense. So that was also a tough spot for the Seahawks. And it was a good spot for Arizona last week catching Buffalo off back-to-back huge home wins over the Seahawks and Patriots. And the Bills had to travel all the way out West and still played good enough to win that game.
Seattle is 51-32 ATS in its last 83 games off two or more consecutive losses. Pete Carroll is 20-10 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of Seattle. Carrolls is 12-2 ATS off two consecutive losses as the coach of the Seahawks. Seattle is 7-1-2 ATS in its last 10 Thursday games. The Seahawks are 32-15-4 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss. Bet the Seahawks Thursday.
|11-16-20||Vikings v. Bears +3||Top||19-13||Loss||-105||68 h 52 m||Show|
20* Vikings/Bears ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Chicago +3
It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Chicago Bears, who are coming off three straight losses to three of the better teams in the NFL in the Rams, Saints and Titans. Two of those were on the road, and one was an overtime home loss to the Saints.
At the same time, it’s a great time to ‘sell high’ on the Vikings, who are coming off two straight wins and covers over the Packers and the Lions. They had a bye week coming into that game with the Packers and caught them by surprise, revenging an earlier loss. And they caught the Lions without Kenny Golloday, and with Matthew Stafford sitting out practice all week due to Covid-19 protocol. Stafford eventually was knocked out of the game with a concussion as well.
So we’re going to get a Bears team highly motivated to bounce back from three straight losses following their 5-1 start this season. And we’re going to get a fat and happy Vikings team that has rebounded from their 1-5 start with two straight wins. The Bears are still the better team in my opinion with the much better defense and should be favored here.
Minnesota gives up 29.3 points and 412.9 yards per game this season. Chicago only allows 21.1 points and 335.1 yards per game this year. The Vikings do have the better offense, but this is one of the stiffest tests they will have faced all season. They have faced one of the easiest schedules of opposing defenses of any team in the NFL thus far. The only legit defense they faced they lost 11-28 on the road to the Colts.
I foresee us getting the bad Kirk Cousins Monday night. The Bears have owned Cousins and the Vikings, going 4-0 SU in the last four meetings and a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. They have held the Vikings to an average of just 16.3 points per game in those six meetings, and the Vikings have failed to top 23 points once in this stretch.
The Vikings are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 Monday Night games, including 0-7 ATS in their last seven MNF road games. The Bears are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games as home underdogs. Chicago is 19-4 ATS in its last 23 games off three straight games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. The Bears are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. excellent rushing teams that average 5 or more yards per carry. Bet the Bears Monday.
|11-15-20||Bengals +8 v. Steelers||Top||10-36||Loss||-110||144 h 12 m||Show|
25* AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati Bengals +8
This is a great spot to back the Cincinnati Bengals this week. The Bengals are coming off their bye week, so they have two weeks to get ready for the Pittsburgh Steelers. They should put together one of their best performances of the season in this spot.
The Bengals are undervalued because of their 2-5-1 record this season. But they are 6-2 ATS with only one loss by more than 5 points all season. They are much better than their record would indicate. Joe Burrow is having a Rookie of the Year type season and always keeps his team in games. The guy is 19-6 ATS in his last 25 games as a starter dating back to his time at LSU.
The Steelers are overvalued due to being the last remaining unbeaten team at 8-0 this season. I faded them last week with success on the Cowboys +14 in a game that the Cowboys probably should have won outright in a 19-24 defeat. And I’m fading the Steelers again this week laying more than a touchdown to the rested and ready Bengals.
The Steelers have had Covid-19 issues this week that have forced some players to miss practice all week, including Big Ben. And Big Ben injured his knee against the Cowboys and won’t be 100% even if he does play. It would just be an added bonus if he sits out.
The Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Cincinnati is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games as a road underdog. The Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bet the Bengals Sunday.
|11-15-20||Chargers v. Dolphins -2.5||Top||21-29||Win||100||98 h 57 m||Show|
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Dolphins -2.5
I’ve been riding the Miami Dolphins all season and it has paid off. The Dolphins are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS this season and head coach Brian Flores is clearly in the discussion for Coach of the Year. They are coming off two straight upsets over the Rams and Cardinals and are now 3-1 against the NFC West this season, which has been tabbed as the best division in the NFL.
The Dolphins are underrated because they play great defense. They are only giving up 20.1 points per game this season. And their offense showed what it could do last week with Too Tagovailoa leading them to 34 points against the Cardinals. He completed 20 of 28 passes for 248 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions, while also rushing for 35 yards on seven attempts. I don’t believe he’s a downgrade from Ryan Fitzpatrick, and the playbook actually gets bigger with Tua under center.
I went into the week thinking the Dolphins could be getting too much respect off those two upset wins this week. But that’s simply not the case as they are only 2.5-point home favorites here against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers are just 2-6 this season and they just find ways to lose games.
They have blown leads of 16 points or more in four games this season, losing three of them. And last week they nearly completed a comeback of their own against the Raiders, only to have their touchdown on the final play of the game overturned with a booth review. I don’t know how much more heartbreak this team can take. And this might finally be the week where they just fail to show up.
What I also like about the Dolphins is that they are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL. The Chargers have some key losses along the offensive line, and now Joey Bosa is doubtful with a concussion. Their defense is so much better when they have Bosa and Ingram to rush the passer, but without Bosa that is a huge deal and Tua should be able to extend plays with his feet.
I just think this is a great value on a Dolphins team playing with a ton of confidence right now while also fighting for an AFC East Title with the Buffalo Bills. The Chargers have little to play for the rest of the way, and while I don’t expect them to pack it in, I think this is a bad spot for them off two straight heartbreaking defeats in the final seconds. And it’s a West Coast team having to travel East, which is always a tough situation.
The Chargers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. They are losing by 6.9 points per game in this spot. The Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record. These three trends combine for a 17-0 system backing Miami. Take the Dolphins Sunday.
|11-15-20||Eagles -3.5 v. Giants||17-27||Loss||-113||37 h 38 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia Eagles -3.5
The Philadelphia Eagles are in a great spot here Sunday. They are coming off their bye week and are now as healthy as they have been basically all season. They will have six key players back that they didn’t have in their first meeting with the Giants a few weeks ago.
Miles Sanders, Alshon Jeffery, Dallas Goedert, Jalen Raegor, Jason Peters and Lane Johnson all didn’t suit up against the Giants in their first meeting on October 22nd. And that game wasn’t nearly as close as the 21-22 final score would indicate. The Eagles racked up 422 total yards in that game and outgained the Giants by 117 yards. They are clearly the superior team with all these players back and off their bye.
Speaking of misleading finals, the Giants beat the Redskins 23-20 last week. But they won the turnover battle 5-0 and were still only able to win by a field goal. And Washington starting QB Kyle Allen was knocked out of the game in the first quarter, leaving the offense in the hands of the terrible Alex Smith. And even Smith went on to complete 24-of-32 passes for 325 yards against this soft New York defense.
The Eagles have one of the better defenses in the NFL, giving up 340.1 yards per game on the season. They have had just a mediocre offense up to this point, but with all these reinforcements coming back from injury along the offensive line and at the skill positions, the Eagles should easily have a Top 10 offense moving forward.
The Eagles simply own the Giants, going 8-0 SU in the last eight meetings. Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Giants are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 home games. New York is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games as a home underdog. The Eagles are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 trips to New York. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Roll with the Eagles Sunday.
|11-12-20||Colts v. Titans +103||Top||34-17||Loss||-100||11 h 15 m||Show|
20* Colts/Titans AFC South No-Brainer on Tennessee ML +103
The Tennessee Titans are 6-2 this season with their only losses coming at home to the Steelers and on the road to the Bengals. They got back in the win column with a 24-17 victory over the Bears last week in what was a 24-3 game before the Bears scored some points in garbage time to make the score closer than it was.
That was a box score against the Bears that lied last week, and I think it’s creating some line value here on the Titans getting them as home underdogs. The Bears outgained the Titans by nearly 150 yards, but they got almost all those yards in garbage time after the game was already decided. And the Bears ran 20 more plays than the Titans did. The Titans just basically tried to milk the clock after taking a 24-3 lead in the 4th quarter.
The Colts lost 24-10 to the Ravens last week. But the early money is on the Colts this week because of another box score that favored the Colts. They outgained the Ravens by 73 yards. But they went just 2-of-12 on 3rd down in another terrible performance by Philip Rivers when he has stepped up on competition.
Speaking of competition, the Colts have played the easiest schedule in the entire NFL according to Football Outsiders. They are 5-3 this season with their five wins coming against the Vikings, Jets, Bears, Bengals and Lions. And keep in mind they lost to the Jaguars and Browns. Even after playing a good team in the Ravens, they still have the 32nd-ranked schedule in the NFL, which shows just how easy it has been.
Rivers just doesn’t have the same caliber of weapons in Indianapolis as he did with the Chargers. TY Hilton can’t stay healthy and is questionable again tonight. And now Rivers has lost his favorite tight end in Jack Doyle. There’s no question the Titans have a huge advantage on offense with Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, AJ Brown and company. They are scoring 29.0 points per game this season.
The Titans are 4-1 at home this season and winning by 7.8 points per game. Again, their only home loss was to the unbeaten Steelers. The Colts are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. AFC opponents. Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record. The Titans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as home underdogs. Bet the Titans on the Money Line Thursday.
|11-09-20||Patriots -7 v. Jets||Top||30-27||Loss||-120||82 h 11 m||Show|
20* Patriots/Jets ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New England -7
The New England Patriots aren’t going to give up on their season under Bill Belichick. They are just 2-5 on the season but everything is still in front of them, and I like the quotes I’m hearing from the players heading into this game with the New York Jets Monday night. They nearly upset the Bills on the road last week, which shows they have not quit.
If there was ever a ‘get right’ game for the Patriots, this would be it. They take on the worst team in the NFL in the New York Jets, who are 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS with all eight losses coming by 8 points or more and by an average of 18.0 points per game. And we are getting the Patriots here at less than that 8-point margin as only 7-point favorites.
The numbers show the Patriots to be an average team and better than their 2-5 record. They are only getting outgained by 5.6 yards per game on the season. Compare that to the Jets, who are getting outgained by 140 yards per game, and the Patriots should roll to an easy win and cover. And because this is a National TV game on Monday Night Football, the Patriots will show up and handle their business.
Plays against home underdogs or PK (NY Jets) - a poor team that is outgained by 50 or more yards per game, after allowing 375 or more yards in two consecutive games are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Jets are 0-6 ATS after being outgained by 150 or more yards in their previous game over the last two seasons. Bet the Patriots Monday.
|11-08-20||Saints v. Bucs -4.5||38-3||Loss||-109||58 h 19 m||Show|
15* Saints/Bucs NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Tampa Bay -4.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers want revenge from a 23-34 road loss to the New Orleans Saints in the season opener. Of course the Bucs were a completely new team and they weren’t going to be clicking in Week 1. That proved to be the case as Tom Brady threw a pick-six which was the difference. It’s worth noting the Bucs still outgained the Saints by 39 yards in that loss as it was closer than the score would suggest.
It’s safe to say the Bucs have gotten it together since. They have gone 6-1 SU & 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven games overall while outscoring their opponents by an average of 13.3 points per game. Their offense has been rolling with 25-plus points in all six wins. Brady has unlimited weapons, and their defense is one of the best in the NFL, giving up just 20.6 points per game and 299.5 yards per game this season.
I’m willing to throw out Tampa Bay’s narrow win over the New York Giants last week. That was clearly a sandwich spot off two huge blowout wins over the Packers and Raiders, and knowing they had this game against the Saints on deck this week. They didn’t bring their best effort against the Giants and still managed to win.
The Saints are very fortunate to be 5-2 this season. And it’s worth noting their two losses have come to the Packers and Raiders, two teams the Bucs beat by a combined 53 points. They have been fortunate during their current four-game winning streak winning four one-score games by 6 points or fewer over the Lions, Chargers, Panthers and Bears. Those are four mediocre teams at best. This is a big step up in class for the Saints.
Drew Brees looks like a shell of his former self with terrible arm strength, and now he has popped up on the injury report with a throwing shoulder ailment. We still don’t know if Michael Thomas will make his return. And their defense has some key injuries and hasn’t played well all season. The Saints give up 28.1 points per game on the year. This is where it really catches up to them as Tom Brady lights up that soft defense, and the Bucs shut down Brees and company in a huge revenge game that will likely decide the division.
New Orleans is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games off two straight wins by 3 points or less. The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a SU win. New Orleans is 0-4 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning record. These three trends combine for a perfect 16-0 system backing Tampa Bay tonight. Roll with the Bucs Sunday.
|11-08-20||Dolphins +5 v. Cardinals||34-31||Win||100||96 h 18 m||Show|
15* Dolphins/Cardinals Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Miami +5
The Miami Dolphins have been one of my favorite teams to back this season because the betting public just doesn’t want to buy into them. I have fully bought in and it has paid dividends. And I think they’ve being undervalued again this week as 5-point road dogs to the Arizona Cardinals.
I’m buying into the Dolphins because they have an underrated defense and a head coach in Brian Flores who is getting everything out of his players. They love playing for this guy. The defense is giving up just 18.6 points per game on the season and just 17.0 points per game on the road.
Offensively, the Dolphins are scoring 26.9 points per game, so they are outscoring opponents by 8.3 points per game on the season. I don’t think Tua is an upgrade over Ryan Fitzpatrick, but it’s also not as much of a downgrade as many believe it is. I think it’s pretty much a wash at this point and time will tell.
Many bettors are looking at that misleading box score from last week that saw the Dolphins beat the Rams 28-17 as 3-point home dogs. The Dolphins basically got three touchdowns off turnovers. But their defense does force turnovers as they have forced at least one in every game this season and a total of 13 on the year. Tua didn’t have to do much as they took a conservative approach offensively, so they have plenty of hidden secrets with Tua’s playbook that they can unleash on Arizona this week.
Some bye weeks are better than others. I strongly believe this was a bad time for the Cardinals to have their bye week. They had a lot of momentum going into their bye with three straight victories, blowing out both the Jets and Cowboys and upsetting the Seahawks in overtime. So they went into their bye feeling fat and happy instead of hungry. And I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see them come out rusty and flat this week, especially off that huge win over Seattle.
No team has head better health than Miami this season as they only have four players on the injury report currently. That’s impressive when you consider how many teams have been decimated by injuries in this crazy pandemic season. To compare, the Cardinals have 13 players on their injury report even coming off their bye week, and a lot of them are key players.
Miami is a perfect 7-0 ATS in Weeks 5 through 9 over the last two seasons. The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Plays against any team (Arizona) - off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 79-35 (69.3%) ATS since 1983. Take the Dolphins Sunday.
|11-08-20||Steelers v. Cowboys +14||24-19||Win||100||54 h 24 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Dallas Cowboys +14
The Dallas Cowboys are one of just three teams since 1989 to start a season 0-8 ATS. No team has started 0-9 ATS during this span. So the Cowboys would make history if they don’t cover this spread Sunday. It’s safe to say this is a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Cowboys this week.
The Cowboys will likely be starting Cooper Rush at quarterback this week, which would be an upgrade over Ben Dinucci, who has been terrible. And things have gotten better for them on the injury front both on defense and on the offensive line. They still have a chance to win the division, and they will fight until they are eliminated.
Not only is it a great ‘buy low’ spot on Dallas in their biggest underdog role this season, it’s also a ’sell high’ spot on the Steelers. Pittsburgh is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS and making the public a lot of money this season. Now the Steelers find themselves in their biggest favorite role of the season here against the Cowboys.
It’s also a huge letdown spot for the Steelers. They are coming off two straight huge wins. They handed the Titans their first loss of the season two weeks ago, and last week they somehow beat their biggest rivals in the Ravens despite getting outgained by 236 yards. Now they are feeling fat and happy and this is the perfect spot for them to lay an egg against the Cowboys, which will keep this game closer than the oddsmakers expect.
Pittsburgh was in a dog fight with the Eagles a few weeks back. And Dallas gave Philadelphia a run for its money last week. The Cowboys forced four turnovers and held the Eagles to just 222 total yards and had a chance to win it late before Dinucci fumbled and it was returned for a TD. Their defense is improving, and their offense is still one of the most talented in the entire NFL. There is enough talent on this roster to compete with the Steelers even with a fourth different starting QB this week.
Pittsburgh is 12-29 ATS in its last 41 games as a favorite of 10 points or more. The Steelers are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points. Dallas is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 home games after having lost three of its last four coming in. Mike Tomlin is 5-15 ATS vs. teams that are outscored by 10 or more points per game as the coach of the Steelers. Dallas is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a home underdog. Take the Cowboys Sunday.
|11-08-20||Panthers +11 v. Chiefs||Top||31-33||Win||100||93 h 53 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Carolina Panthers +11
Let’s get this remarkable stat out of the way early. Teddy Bridgewater is 22-5 ATS as an underdog as a starting quarterback in the NFL. And it’s a great spot for the Panthers this week. They have extra time to prepare after playing last Thursday against the Falcons, so they should be the fresher, more prepared team.
Now the Panthers should also get back their best playmaker in Christian McCaffrey from an ankle injury. He means everything to this team. And the way to beat the Chiefs is to run on them. Kansas City gives up 143 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry this season. That’s remarkable when you consider the Chiefs play with a lead most the time and teams usually have to throw the ball to try and come back. Look for the Panthers to play keep away from Patrick Mahomes and to run the football and go on long scoring drives as a result.
It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Panthers coming off three straight losses. It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the Chiefs coming off three straight wins and covers. They weren’t just any wins either, they were blowout wins against two of the worst teams in the NFL in the Broncos by 27 and the Jets by 26 in their last two games. And that win over the Broncos was very misleading. This is a big step up in class now for the Chiefs, and I have a feeling they might be sleep-walking this week knowing that they have a big lead in the division and a bye next week to look ahead to.
A big reason Bridgewater is such a good underdog is because he doesn’t turn the ball over. The Panthers have had zero turnovers in four of their eight games this season and just one turnover in two of them. The Chiefs have forced one or more turnovers in every game this year. Bridgewater will take care of the ball in this game, and those long, time-consuming drives he takes the Panthers on will pay dividends and keep this game a lot closer than the oddsmakers expect.
Andy Reid is 0-6 ATS in home games after gaining six or more yards per play in four consecutive games as the coach of the Chiefs having never covered in this situation. The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as underdogs. Bet the Panthers Sunday.
|11-08-20||Giants v. Washington Football Team -2.5||Top||23-20||Loss||-108||51 h 59 m||Show|
25* NFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington -2.5
I love the spot for the Washington Redskins Sunday. They are coming off their bye week and have had two weeks to prepare for the Giants. They will be fresh and ready to go, and they will want revenge from a 19-20 road loss to the Giants just a few weeks back after they came up short on a 2-point conversion late.
It’s a bad spot for the Giants. They are coming off back-to-back heartbreaking losses to the Eagles (21-22) and Bucs (23-25) in their last two games. They may suffer a hangover here, and they will also be on a short week after playing the Bucs on Monday Night Football. They won’t be nearly as excited to fade Washington as they were to face Tom Brady and the Bucs on National TV. That’s especially the case since they’ve already beaten Washington this season.
I would argue Washington deserved to win that first meeting. They racked up 337 total yards in that game and held the Giants to just 240 total yards, outgaining them by 97 yards. And Washington went on to crush Dallas 25-3 in their final game before the bye while holding the Cowboys to just 142 total yards. They have an underrated defense that can keep them in games, and they clearly have the better defense in this matchup.
The Redskins have been at their best offensively when they’ve had Kyle Allen at quarterback. He is a lot better than he gets credit for. Allen is completing 68.8% of his passes with four touchdowns and only one interception in his three starts this season. He is also mobile with 26 rushing yards and a score.
Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a SU win. Plays against road underdogs or PK (NY Giants) - after covering the spread in three of their last four games, a bad team that wins less than 25% of their games playing a team with a losing record are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS since 1983. Bet Washington Sunday.
|11-05-20||Packers -2.5 v. 49ers||Top||34-17||Win||100||83 h 1 m||Show|
20* Packers/49ers NFC No-Brainer on Green Bay -2.5
Note: I locked in the Packers -2.5 with a personal bet myself at William Hill early Monday morning as well. With the new info that has come out since with Jimmy G and Kittle both out, plus the Covid issues, I'd still take the Packers as a 20* up to -6.5. Thanks.
I’ve been fading the 49ers for weeks and will continue to do so Thursday as they host the Green Bay Packers. The 49ers simply have too many injuries to be able to beat a team the caliber of the Packers, just as they couldn’t beat a team that caliber of the Seahawks last week. And I believe the Packers are as good or better than the Seahawks this season.
The 49ers are playing without Richard Sherman, Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas, Dee Ford, K’Waun Williams, Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. Now Jimmy G and George Kittle have been added to the injury list and are both questionable for Thursday. Deebo Samuel missed last game and likely won’t return on a short week with a hamstring injury. Not to mention, Tevin Coleman, Kwon Alexander, Dante Pettis and Jacquiski Tartt all have the questionable label. They are missing 20-plus contributors to injury.
The Packers have some injury issues of their own as RB Aaron Jones, T David Bakhtiari and CB Kevin King all missed last game with injuries. I’m hopeful a few of them return, but either way the Packers’ injury situation is a lot prettier than that of the 49ers. And that was a bad spot for the Packers last week and a great one for the Vikings, which is why we were on the Vikings +7 in that one.
The Vikings were coming off their bye week and got a healthy Dalvin Cook back from injury. Cook torched the Packers for four touchdowns, but he was really Minnesota’s only offense as they finished with 324 total yards, a reasonable showing for the Packers. Green Bay had 400 total yards in that game.
The Packers responded well from their first loss of the season against the Bucs with a 35-20 win at Houston. And they will respond well from this loss to Minnesota. Adding to the Packers’ motivation here is the fact that they lost both meetings with the 49ers last season, including in the playoffs. They will want revenge here, similar to the Seahawks wanting revenge on the 49ers last week when we cashed them in as our 25* NFC West Game of the Year. The Packers will have their revenge in a big way Thursday night.
Green Bay is 40-23 ATS in its last 63 games off a loss by 6 points or less. Plays on underdogs or PK (Green Bay) - a team that commits 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game against a team that forces 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game, after two straight games where they forced one or fewer turnovers are 29-9 (76.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Packers Thursday.
|11-02-20||Bucs v. Giants UNDER 47||Top||25-23||Loss||-115||148 h 24 m||Show|
20* Bucs/Giants ESPN Monday No-Brainer on UNDER 47
The New York Giants have been an UNDER machine this season. They have a terrible offense and an underrated defense. The UNDER is 5-2 in their seven games this year and six of the seven have seen 45 or fewer combined points. The only exception was their game against the Dallas Cowboys, who have arguably the worst defense in the NFL.
Speaking of underrated defenses, the Tampa Bay Bucs give up just 20.3 points and 291.3 yards per game. Their offense gets all their credit, but it is their defense being the reason that they are so good. In fact, Football Outsiders has the Bucs ranked as the top defense in the entire NFL this season.
The Giants have given up 22 or fewer points in four of their seven games this season. I think they can limit what the Bucs do offensively similar to when the Bears held the Bucs to just 19 points a few weeks back. The Bucs have scored a ton of points the last two weeks since against the Packers and Raiders, but many of those points were created by their defense, and that’s unlikely to continue happening.
The Giants have the 30th-ranked offense according to Football Outsiders. They average just 17.4 points and 282.4 yards per game this season. Daniel Jones really misses his best weapon in Saquon Barkley. And now he’s left with one of the worst set of skill players in the NFL. I don’t expect the Giants to do much offensively to contribute to the total points scored in this game.
Plays on the UNDER on any team where the total is 42.5 to 49 (Tampa Bay) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers are 41-14 (74.5%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
|11-01-20||49ers v. Seahawks -3||Top||27-37||Win||100||122 h 59 m||Show|
25* NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Seahawks -3
It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the San Francisco 49ers this week. They are coming off two upset wins as underdogs over the Rams and Patriots. It’s clear the Patriots are broken and that win doesn’t mean as much as the 33-6 final score would indicate. Now the 49ers have to face a real team in the Seattle Seahawks.
It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Seahawks after they blew a 27-14 lead and lost to the Cardinals in overtime last week. Russell Wilson had his worst game of the season with three interceptions. The Seahawks hadn’t turned the ball over more than once prior to that game. Russell is in a bounce-back spot and wants revenge on the 49ers after they took the NFC West title from them in Week 17 last year.
The Seahawks have been able to make up for a suspect defense with an offense that is one of the best in the NFL in putting up 33.8 points per game this season. And there’s a good chance the Seahawks get back their leader on defense in safety Jamal Adams this week.
The 49ers’ injury report just got even worse after last week. They lost RB Jeff Wilson Jr. to an ankle injury late, and he had three touchdowns against the Patriots. They don’t really have any good healthy running backs left after also losing Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert to season-ending injury. The 49ers now have at least 19 contributors that are out due to injury this season.
New starter Jerick McKinnon has been ineffective, which is why everyone else is starting ahead of him. And they have also been using Deebo Samuel a lot in the running game, but now he is out with a hamstring injury. Samuel was becoming their best playmaker the last few weeks, so it’s a big loss. Jimmy Ward, Jaquiski Tartt and Kwon Alexander are all questionable to play this week and they are already missing a handful of starters on D.
The Seahawks are 6-0 ATS after allowing more than 350 passing yards in their previous game over the last two seasons. Seattle is 8-1 ATS after allowing 450 or more total yards in its previous game over the last three years, coming back to win by 8.8 yards per game in this spot. The Seahawks are 32-15-4 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss. Bet the Seahawks Sunday.
|11-01-20||Patriots v. Bills -3||Top||21-24||Push||0||119 h 33 m||Show|
20* AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo Bills -3
I made my worst pick of the season last week on the Patriots over the 49ers as a 25*. I apologize to my clients for that one. I thought the Patriots were affected by only having one padded practice in the two weeks prior leading up to their losses to the Chiefs and Broncos. And they had a full week of practice last week to improve.
It didn’t matter. The Patriots are clearly broken after losing 6-33 at home to the 49ers for their third consecutive loss. That followed up a 12-18 home loss to the Denver Broncos as 7-point favorites. And before that they lost 10-26 on the road to the Kansas City Chiefs.
So, the Patriots have scored an average of 9.3 points per game in their last three games. Their offense is way broken. Cam Newton has two touchdown passes against seven interceptions on the season and the Panthers are glad they moved on from him. He is in jeopardy of losing his starting job. It doesn’t matter who they go with because the backups haven’t been any better. Their quarterbacks have combined for three touchdowns against 11 interceptions on the season.
The usually steady Patriots defense is missing too many players to be effective last year. A banged-up 49ers offense just put up 33 points and 467 total yards on them last week. That came a week after the Broncos scored on their first six possessions of the game, albeit all field goals but they still had no problem moving the football on the Patriots.
The Bills are the real deal this season. Their only two losses came against two of the best teams in the NFL in the Titans and Chiefs, who are a combined 11-2 this season. They have been frustrated for years by the Patriots, and now it’s finally their turn to take over this division. They will be highly motivated to do just that Sunday.
Buffalo’s 18-10 win at the New York Jets last week was very misleading. They somehow had to settle for eight field goal attempts in that game, and only made six of them. But they outgained the Jets 422 to 190 for the game, so it was a bigger blowout than the final score showed. And their defense completely shut down the Jets after giving up 10 early points.
Buffalo boasts one of the best offenses in the NFL in scoring 24.9 points and averaging 376.7 yards per game. Jose Allen is having an MVP-caliber season thus far. He is completing 67.6% of his passes for 2,018 yard with a 16-to-4 TD/INT ratio. He has also rushed for 204 yards and three scores as one of the best dual-threats in the game, something the Patriots will struggle with.
It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Bills off three straight ATS losses. They should be closer to 7-point favorites in this game. The Bills are 24-7 ATS in their last 31 games off three or more consecutive ATS losses. New England is 0-6 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 375 or more yards per game over the last two seasons. The Patriots are 0-6 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more yards per attempt over the last two years. Bet the Bills Sunday.
|11-01-20||Colts v. Lions +3||41-21||Loss||-110||119 h 33 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Detroit Lions +3
The Detroit Lions have some momentum right now after going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall to live up to their potential. All three wins came on the road over the Cardinals, Jaguars and Falcons. And their last-second win over the Falcons last week keeps their momentum going. Their only defeat came by 6 against one of the best teams in the NFL in the Saints.
Now the Lions host the Colts, who are getting too much respect from oddsmakers as 3-point road favorites here. The Colts are 4-2 but they have played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL, while the Lions have played one of the toughest. The Lions have faced four teams with winning records, while the Colts have only faced two in the Bears and Browns, who are both overrated.
Philip Rivers looks like a shell of his former self. He has a 7-to-6 TD/INT ratio on the season. Matthew Stafford is clearly the better quarterback with the better weapons in this matchup. He has a 10-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season and has been one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the NFL. And he has been even better since getting his favorite target in Kenny Golloday back from injury after missing the first two games, both losses by the Lions.
The Lions have more talent on defense than they get credit for too, and that unit has played up to their potential the last two weeks in limiting the Jaguars to 16 points and the Lions to 22 points. And I think they’ll continue to have success against a Colts offense that hasn’t been great despite feasting on one of the easiest schedules of opposing defenses in the NFL. Football outsiders has them ranked as the 22nd-best offense in the NFL. Football outsiders also identifies the Colts have playing the 32nd-ranked schedule in the NFL thus far, while the Lions have played the 14th-toughest schedule.
Frank Reich is 2-9 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game as the coach of the Colts. I believe the wrong team is favored in this matchup and Detroit has a great chance to win this game outright. Take the Lions Sunday.
|11-01-20||Vikings +7 v. Packers||28-22||Win||100||119 h 33 m||Show|
15* Vikings/Packers NFC North ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +7
It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Minnesota Vikings (1-5) and sell high on the Green Bay Packers (5-1). And an easy way to see that the Vikings are undervalued while the Packers are overvalued is to compare this line to the line from Week 1. The Vikings were actually favored over the Packers in Week 1, and now they are 7-point dogs, which has been at least an 8-point adjustment. That’s too much.
The Vikings are better than their 1-5 record would indicate. They have played the 4th-toughest schedule in the NFL and have two 1-point losses to two of the best teams in the NFL in the Seahawks and Titans. And after giving away that game to the Seahawks, they laid an egg in last game against the Falcons with a 23-40 home loss.
The Vikings have since had a bye week to recover from that loss to the Falcons. And you know Mike Zimmer will have this team improving greatly with two weeks to prepare for the Packers. You also know that the Vikings will be highly motivated to face a division rival and first place team in the Packers. This is their chance to really turn their season around, and they will make the most of it. Getting 7 points with the Vikings is too much.
The bye week has also allowed star RB Dalvin Cook to return from an injury that kept him out against the Falcons. This offense really goes as Cook goes. He has rushed for 489 yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 5.3 yards per carry in five games. He also has 12 receptions for 64 yards and needs involved more in the passing game. Justin Jefferson (28 receptions, 537 yards, 3 TD) and Adam Thielen (32, 415, 7 TD) are great weapons for Cousins outside.
While the Vikings are getting healthier on both sides of the ball with their bye week, the Packers have a lot of injuries with guys listed as questionable. T David Bakhtiari missed last week with a chest injury and is questionable. S Darnell Savage, RB Aaron Jones, DL Tyler Lancaster and CB Kevin King are all questionable as well. Jones would be a huge loss as he has 550 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns this year.
Minnesota is 54-31 ATS in its last 85 games off two or more consecutive losses. Zimmer is a perfect 8-0 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 points or more as the coach of Minnesota. This 100% never lost system shows a lot about Zimmer and his ability to get the most out of his teams in this situation. Take the Vikings Sunday.
|11-01-20||Steelers v. Ravens -3||28-24||Loss||-125||119 h 33 m||Show|
15* Steelers/Ravens AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -3
No question the Pittsburgh Steelers are a legit 6-0 and one of the best teams in the NFL. But it’s time to ‘sell high’ on the Steelers this week. They are 5-1 ATS this season and are starting to become a public team. And you can tell there’s line value with the Ravens this week when you consider this line was Ravens -6 last week and now it’s -3 to -3.5 this week.
The only thing that happened to move that line was the Steelers going on the road and beating the Titans 27-24 last week. Well, I had the Steelers as a free pick in that game because I stated that the Titans were one of the most fraudulent 5-0 teams in the history of the NFL. And that came to fruition, even though the Steelers still nearly found a way to lose that game.
Now the Steelers have to go on the road for a second straight week and face a rested, hungry Ravens team coming off their bye week. The Ravens have been dominant this season at 5-1 with their only loss coming to the Kansas City Chiefs. They five wins have come by an average of 17.8 points per game. They should be more than 3-point home favorites here over the Steelers given the situation.
Yes, the Steelers have been great against the run this year, but they haven’t had to face a mobile QB like the one they will be up against Sunday in Lamar Jackson. All Jackson has done is lead a Ravens offense that is averaging a whopping 29.8 points per game. And this is definitely an improved Baltimore defense, one that gives up only 17.3 points and 339.8 yards per game.
You definitely want to be backing John Harbaugh off a bye week. He is 9-2 ATS off a bye as the coach of the Ravens. Mike Tomlin is 6-16 ATS off a win by 6 points or less as the coach of the Steelers. The Ravens are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. AFC opponents, including 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. AFC North foes. The Steelres are 3-7-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
Plays on any team (Baltimore) - off a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent off a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 72-34 (67.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Ravens Sunday.
|10-29-20||Falcons v. Panthers -2.5||Top||25-17||Loss||-119||70 h 13 m||Show|
25* NFL Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Carolina Panthers -2.5
The Carolina Panthers are much better than they are getting credit for this season. Matt Rhule is doing a tremendous job of getting the most out of this team, and Teddy Bridgewater continues to be a covering machine dating back to his time with the Vikings and Saints. It was a great fit for the Panthers getting Bridewater, and he has had them competitive in every game they’ve played.
The Panthers are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They beat the Chargers and Falcons on the road while also topping the Cardinals at home. They only lost by a touchdown to the Bears at home and had a chance to force OT at the end. And last week they were in a tough spot facing a Saints team off a bye on the road, yet nearly knocked them off in a 24-27 loss as 7-point dogs.
And there’s good news on the horizon for the Panthers. Christian McCaffrey returned to practice Monday and there’s a very real possibility he’ll play Thursday. Either way, they have still been winning without him and will continue to do so if he doesn’t play. Getting him back would just be an added bonus. And I like backing home teams on these short weeks when possible, and I think there’s a ton of value getting the Panthers at -2.5 here under a field goal.
It’s going to be tough for the Falcons to get back up off the mat after the way they lost to the Lions Sunday. All Todd Gurley had to do was not score at the end and they could have kicked the game-winning field goal. Instead, they left just enough time for Matthew Stafford and Lions to drive down the field and score the game-winning touchdown on the final play of the game. I just don’t see how they can possibly bounce back from that gut-wrenching loss at the buzzer, especially not a 1-6 team like the Falcons with zero playoff aspirations.
The Panthers already beat the Falcons 23-16 in their first meeting this season in Atlanta. They racked up 437 total yards on the Falcons and held them to 369. They led 20-7 at half and really should have won by more. Bridewater went 27-of-36 passing for 313 yards and two touchdowns, while Mike Davis rushed for 89 yards on 16 carries. Both should have great games against this awful Atlanta defense that is giving up 29.6 points and 425.9 yards per game this season.
It’s also worth noting that this will be just the 2nd outdoor game of the season for the Falcons, who are built to play in a dome. In their first, they lost 16-30 at Green Bay as their offense just couldn’t get anything going. Their speed just doesn’t play nearly as well on a grass field like the one Carolina has. The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last five games on grass. Bet the Panthers Thursday.
|10-26-20||Bears v. Rams UNDER 45.5||Top||10-24||Win||100||144 h 10 m||Show|
20* MNF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bears/Rams UNDER 45.5
Two of the best defensive teams in the NFL square off Monday night when the Los Angeles Rams host the Chicago Bears. Points are going to be hard to come by in this one, so we’ll side with the UNDER 45.5 points here. Both teams are 4-2 to the UNDER this season.
The Bears are 5-1 this season behind a defense that is giving up just 19.3 points and 337.2 yards per game. This defense is the only reason they are 5-1 because their offense has been putrid outside of a couple fourth quarter comebacks against both the lowly Lions and Falcons. The Bears average just 21.3 points and 312.8 yards per game.
The Rams are off to a 4-2 start this season behind a defense that gives up only 19.0 points and 318.5 yards per game. The Rams are also running at a much slower pace this season and not throwing the ball all over the yard. Instead, they have become more of a power running team, averaging 31 rush attempts per game compared to only 32 pass attempts. It’s clear Sean McVey doesn’t exactly trust Jared Goff.
The last two meetings in this series over the past two seasons have been extremely low-scoring. Indeed, the Rams won 17-7 at home last year for just 24 combined points. And the Bears won 15-6 in 2018 for 21 combined points during the Rams’ Super Bowl season.
The UNDER is 10-1 in Bears last 11 games following an ATS win. The UNDER is 6-1 in Bears last seven vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 10-3 in Bears last 13 as road underdogs. The UNDER is 6-0 in Rams last six October games. The UNDER is 13-3 in Rams last 16 games as favorites. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
|10-25-20||49ers v. Patriots -2.5||Top||33-6||Loss||-102||116 h 23 m||Show|
25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on New England Patriots -2.5
It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the New England Patriots this week. They are coming off two straight losses to the Chiefs and Broncos where they also failed to cover. Now we are getting them at a great value as only 2.5-point home favorites over the San Francisco 49ers this week.
The losses are easily explainable. The Patriots have only had one padded practice in the last two weeks due to Covid-19 issues. They just haven’t had the time together they’ve needed. Yet they still gave the Chiefs all they wanted even without Cam Newton. They outgained the Chiefs by 34 yards but lost the turnover battle 4-1, which was the difference.
And last week Newton came back and was a little rusty. The defense did a good job of holding the Broncos to six field goals to give the offense a chance. And the Patriots had the ball with a chance to win it in the end. But they came up short, and you can bet Bill Belichick will have his team playing with a chip on its shoulder. I can’t remember the last time Belichick lost three straight games.
At the same time, it’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the San Francisco 49ers. They got their signature win last week against the Rams to bounce back from their embarrassing 43-17 loss to the Dolphins. But that was a bad spot for the Rams because they were playing their fourth road game in five games with three of those trips all the way out East. They predictably had an off game, and the 49ers took advantage.
Now the 49ers go from facing a fat and happy Rams team to a pissed off Patriots team. And the 49ers still have the same issues that got them off to an ugly start this season that included upset home losses as 6.5-point favorites or more to the Cardinals, Eagles and Dolphins. Their injury report is a mess, and it got worse last week.
The 49ers lost starting RB Raheem Mostert and starting C Ben Garland in the win over the Rams. They also had T Trent Williams get injured and his return is questionable this week. They were already missing CB Richard Sherman, C Richburt, DE Bosa, DT Thomas, DE Ford, DE Ansah, LB Alexander and CB Williams. The only team with possibly a worse injury report than the 49ers is the Eagles.
The Patriots are 49-24-1 ATS in their last 74 games following a loss. New England is 42-17-2 ATS in its last 61 October games. Bet the Patriots Sunday.
|10-25-20||Bucs v. Raiders +3||45-20||Loss||-120||116 h 3 m||Show|
15* Bucs/Raiders NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Las Vegas +3
The Las Vegas Raiders are better than they are getting credit for this season. That is the case again here as they are coming off their bye week yet they are still 3-point home underdogs to the Tampa Bay Bucs. We’ll gladly keep backing this team until the markets catch up to them.
The Raiders opened the season with a 34-30 win at Carolina and a 34-24 home win over the Saints. Both of those wins have aged well. Their loss to the Patriots wasn’t as bad as the score would indicate as they were only outgained by 31 yards by New England, and that was before the Patriots were hit with Covid-19 and playing well.
Then the Raiders lost 23-30 at home to Buffalo despite outgaining the Bills by 46 yards. And they bounced back with their most impressive win of the season, a 40-32 win at Kansas City as 11-point dogs. There was nothing fluky at all about that victory as they racked up 490 yards on the Chiefs and outgained them by 77 yards.
This team is finally starting to look like what John Gruden envisioned when he took over. They have a high-powered offense that is averaging 30.2 points and 399 yards per game this season. There is a lot of MVP talk surrounding Russell Wilson and others, but no mention of Derek Carr, which is a shame because he’s having a monster season. Carr is completing 73.1% of his passes for 1,442 yards with an 11-to-1 TD/INT ratio through five games.
I cashed in the Bucs last week against the Packers, but now it’s a good time to ’sell high’ on them after their misleading 38-10 win. They basically got 14 of those points off of back-to-back Aaron Rodgers interceptions. Tom Brady didn’t have to do much as he went 17-of-27 for 166 yards with two touchdowns and no picks. Brady is definitely showing his age a little more this season, and the Raiders clearly have the better quarterback in this matchup.
Bruce Arians is 3-13 ATS in road games when playing against a good team with a winning percentage between 60% and 75% in all games as a head coach. The Bucs are 0-6 ATS in this situation over the last three seasons. Tampa Bay is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. We’ll back the rested, underrated team off their bye week catching points at home this week. Roll with the Raiders Sunday.
|10-25-20||Browns v. Bengals +3.5||Top||37-34||Win||100||113 h 58 m||Show|
20* AFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati Bengals +3.5
The Cincinnati Bengals are much better than their 1-4-1 record would indicate. They have three losses by 5 points or less as well as a tie this season. And their only blowout loss came 3-27 to the Baltimore Ravens, the same team that also beat Cleveland 38-6.
The Browns are way overrated with their 4-2 record right now. Their two losses have come by a combined score of 76-13 to the Ravens and Steelers. Those results have them actually getting outscored by 4.0 points per game on the season. To compare, Cincinnati is only getting outscored by 4.7 points per game. So getting +3.5 with the Bengals at home here is a nice value.
Plus, the Bengals want revenge from their 30-35 road loss to the Browns in their first meeting this season. And the Bengals are healthier since then as they just got AJ Green back from injury. They played great against the Colts on the road last week but couldn’t hold onto their 21-0 lead. Their kicker missed a key FG that could have turned the tide of that game late.
Things have gotten worse for the Browns since. Their lost their best running back in Nick Chubb, and the best thing they had going for them was their rushing attack this season. That’s because Baker Mayfield has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, and now he’s dealing with a rib injury that limited him against the Steelers last week and eventually saw him replaced by Case Keenum. The Browns are only averaging 189 passing yards per game this season. Mayfield is averaging just 6.4 yards per attempt with a 10-to-6 TD/INT ratio.
Joe Burrow has looked great this season outside that game against the Ravens in which he didn’t have Green or Ross to throw the ball too. He is completing 65% of his passes for 1,617 yards through six games this season, averaging 269.5 yards per game. He torched the Browns for 316 passing yards and three touchdowns without an interception in their first meeting this season, and it should be more of the same Sunday. Burrow is living up to the hype that made him the #1 pick in the draft.
Cincinnati’s defense has improved greatly the last few weeks, especially against the run. They are only giving up 103 rushing yards per game in their last three games. They held the Ravens to just 332 total yards as that game was much closer than the final score would indicate, but unfortunately their offense couldn’t get anything going since Burrow was missing his main weapon in Green. He’s growing a great chemistry with Green, Higgins and Boyd as the Bengals have some of the most underrated weapons in the NFL.
Cleveland is 0-7 ATS in road games after the first month of the season over the last two seasons. The Browns are 16-39-1 ATS in their last 56 games following a loss. Cleveland is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games. The Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss. Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall. Take the Bengals Sunday.
|10-22-20||Giants +4.5 v. Eagles||Top||21-22||Win||100||48 h 18 m||Show|
20* Giants/Eagles NFC East No-Brainer on New York +4.5
Few teams have been hit harder by injuries than the Philadelphia Eagles. They are missing nine starters on offense and five backups to injury. Not to mention, they are missing several big names on the defensive side of the ball as well.
It’s no wonder the Eagles are off to a 1-4-1 start this season. And they used everything they had to try and come back against the Ravens last week after they found themselves trailing 24-6 entering the 4th quarter. They outscored the Ravens 22-6 in the final period, but came up a 2-point conversion short.
When teams lose a heartbreaker like that, I like to fade them the next week. And this is the perfect time to do so because now the Eagles are on a short week and will certainly be fatigued and not fully recovered. They already lack depth across the board with all these injuries and should not be this big of a favorite because of it.
The Giants are squarely in the NFC East race, just like the Eagles, because the division has been so bad. What the Giants have going for them is probably the best defense in the division if it’s not Washington. They have held three of their first six opponents to 19 or fewer points and have a defense that can keep them in ball games.
The last three weeks they have played much better than the first three. They took the Rams to the wire on the road, held a late lead against the Cowboys on the road, and beat Washington at home. They will be in this game for four quarters, so getting +4.5 is a nice value.
The Giants have been a great bet on the road over the years, especially recently. New York is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 road games. The Giants are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games as road underdogs. New York is 8-1 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last three seasons. Philadelphia is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as a home favorite. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet the Giants Thursday.
|10-19-20||Cardinals v. Cowboys +1.5||Top||38-10||Loss||-110||75 h 47 m||Show|
20* Cardinals/Cowboys ESPN No-Brainer on Dallas +1.5
It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Dallas Cowboys Monday night. They are 0-5 ATS on the season having not once covered the spread. They were favored in four of their first five games, and now they are home underdogs for the first time all season. That’s why this is a ‘buy low’ spot and a great value on the Cowboys.
A lot is being made of the injury to Dak Prescott, but fortunately for the Cowboys they have one of the best backup quarterbacks in the NFL in Andy Dalton. And he put up even better numbers than Dak Prescott did in his first four seasons in the NFL. Dalton has the luxury of having arguably the most offensive talent around him of anyone in the NFL.
Dalton used that talent to guide the Cowboys on a game-winning drive to beat the Giants last week, 37-34, after replacing Prescott. He finished 9-of-11 for 111 yards in the win and threw some great sideline routes where his receivers made some great plays for him as well. This offense is going to keep on humming.
The Cardinals are 3-2 this season, but their three wins have come against the Jets, 49ers and Washington who are a combined 3-12 on the season. They also lost to the Lions and Panthers. This is easily the toughest test of the season for the Cardinals, and I think they are getting too much respect from oddsmakers off their blowout win over the hapless Jets last week.
The Cardinals are 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Arizona is 1-7 ATS in its last eight Monday night games. Dallas is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a home underdog. The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday night games. The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Arizona. Bet the Cowboys Monday.
|10-18-20||Packers v. Bucs +1||10-38||Win||100||47 h 58 m||Show|
15* Packers/Bucs Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay +1
Not all bye weeks are created equal. Some come at better times than others. And I actually think this is a bad time for the Packers to have a bye. They had a ton of momentum with their 4-0 start, but now that momentum comes to a halt here.
Now the Packers go into their bye week feeling fat and happy instead of hungry. And it’s not the normal advantage for the Packers because their opponent played last Thursday, so it’s a mini-bye week for the Tampa Bay Bucs. And we have a hungry Bucs team coming off a bad last-second loss to the Bears in which they blew a 13-0 lead.
Getting Tom Brady off a loss as a home underdog is a great proposition. I don’t think we’ve ever had a chance to back him as a home dog off a loss, at least not that I can remember. And Brady now should have nearly his full compliment of weapons. Chris Godwin will return from a couple game absence, and Mike Evans and Scotty Miller are both expected to play as well. The Bucs are about as healthy as they’ve been all season.
It’s just a great time to ’sell high’ on the Packers, who have feasted on an easy schedule thus far. Their 4-0 record has come against teams that are a combined 5-14 on the season. This will be their stiffest test yet, and I expect the Bucs to hand them their first defeat.
The Bucs get a lot of praise for their explosive offense, but it is their underrated defense that makes them so good. The Bucs are among the best teams in the NFL in giving up just 298.2 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play. They are holding opponents to 62 yards per game below their season averages. The Packers give up 6.4 yards per play, which is one of the worst marks in the NFL.
Plays on underdogs or PK (Tampa Bay) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% & 60% of their games on the season are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS since 1983. Tampa Bay is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games off an upset loss as a road favorite. Bruce Arians is 9-1 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less in all games he has coached. Roll with the Bucs Sunday.
|10-18-20||Bengals +8 v. Colts||Top||27-31||Win||100||93 h 25 m||Show|
20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Cincinnati Bengals +8
The Cincinnati Bengals played four straight one-score games to start the season. They finally got their first taste of victory in Week 4 against the Jaguars after some tough losses the first three weeks. And I think they exhaled and relaxed last week in their blowout loss to the Ravens.
Cincinnati’s defense played well enough to win that game, holding the Ravens to just 332 total yards and 5.4 yards per play. But their offense couldn’t get anything going and committed three turnovers. Their offense should get back to playing how it was before that game.
The Bengals had averaged nearly 29 points per game in their three games prior to the Ravens. AJ Green sat out last week, but he is expected back this week so Burrow will have his favorite target back. And there’s a good chance the Bengals get John Ross back from a four-game absence at receiver too. He has been upgraded to questionable this week.
The Bengals should be able to hang with a suspect Indianapolis offense that just isn’t very good led by Philip Rivers. He is a shell of his former self, and he doesn’t have nearly the weapons in Indy that he did with the Chargers. Rivers has a 4-to-5 TD/INT ratio on the season through five games.
And keep in mind the Colts have played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL thus far. Their defense was exposed for 32 points by the Browns last week. They were missing their best player on defense in LB Darius Leonard, and he is doubtful to suit up again this week. The Colts have key injuries on both sides of the ball outside Leonard as well.
This line should be less than a touchdown in my opinion, so getting eight points with the Bengals is a nice value considering they have played in four one-score games in five weeks with the lone exception being the dominant Ravens. You want Rivers as an underdog, you don’t want him when he’s laying points, especially not when he is laying more than a touchdown like he is in this game.
The Bengals are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as road underdogs. Bet the Bengals Sunday.
|10-18-20||Browns v. Steelers -3.5||Top||7-38||Win||100||44 h 33 m||Show|
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5
The Cleveland Browns are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall against a soft schedule. They have faced the Bengals, Redskins and Colts at home as well as the Cowboys on the road. It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Browns.
Their big step up in class game came back in Week 1 when they lost 6-38 at Baltimore. And now this is another step up in class here against a Pittsburgh Steelers team that is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this season. But oddsmakers aren’t giving the Steelers the respect they deserve.
Pittsburgh’s offense is back to being as dominant as it was in years’ past. With a healthy Ben Roethlisberger back under center, the Steelers have scored at least 26 points in every game. They have one of the best defenses in the NFL to boot, giving up just 302 yards per game. They are the more complete team and should be more than 3.5-point favorites in this matchup.
The Browns have a soft as butter defense that gives up 29.8 points and 382.6 yards per game this season. The Browns have been able to run the ball offensively, but Baker Mayfield is going to have to do more than he has been asked to do to this point. That’s because the Steelers only allow 64 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry. This is where the bad Baker comes out.
Pittsburgh is 16-0 SU in its last 16 home meetings with Cleveland. The Steelers are 23-2 SU in their last 25 meetings with the Browns with Big Ben under center. The Browns are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games. Cleveland is 7-23-2 ATS in its last 32 games vs. a team with a winning record. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet the Steelers Sunday.
|10-18-20||Bears v. Panthers -1||23-16||Loss||-107||44 h 33 m||Show|
15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Carolina Panthers -1
What more do the Carolina Panthers have to do to get some respect from oddsmakers? Teddy Bridgewater has clearly been one of the most underrated starters in the NFL. He has guided the Panthers to a 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS run in his last three starts. And keep in mind the Panthers were competitive with both the Raiders and Bucs in losses to open the season.
It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Chicago Bears, who could easily be 0-5 instead of 4-1. They are the most fraudulent team in the NFL in my opinion. They had a 17-point 4th quarter comeback against the Lions and a 16-point 4th quarter comeback against the Falcons. They had to get a stop to beat the Giants by 4. And they got a last-second field goal to beat the Bucs. In their lone loss, they were dominated by the Indianapolis Colts at home.
The numbers tell the story of which team is a fraud and which is not. The Panthers are outgaining opponents by 44 yards per game on the season behind an offense that is putting up nearly 400 yards per game. The Bears are getting outgained by 20.8 yards per game with a pitiful offense that averages just 323.2 yards per game.
Chicago is 0-6 ATS in road games after the first month of the season over the last two seasons. Carolina is 6-0 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons. The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record. Chicago is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win. Take the Panthers Sunday.
|10-18-20||Lions -3 v. Jaguars||34-16||Win||100||44 h 33 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Lions -3
The Detroit Lions are coming off their bye and have a chance to regroup and rebound here against a hapless Jacksonville Jaguars team. I love the spot for the Lions, who are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games coming off a bye week.
There’s no question the Lions are better than they have shown. They should be 2-2 right now but blew a 17-point lead in the 4th quarter to the Bears. Their other two losses came to the Packers and Saints, which are forgivable. They also beat a good Cardinals team on the road.
So this is easily a big step down in class for Detroit, which has played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL to this point. They face a Jaguars team that should be 0-5. They were outgained by over 200 yards by the Colts in their lone win, a fluky won. And they’ve gone on to go 0-4 in their last four games overall while getting outscored by 45 points, or by an average of 11.3 points per game. They lost by 18 to the Dolphins, by 8 to the Bengals and by 16 to the Texans, and you could make the argument that the Lions are better than all three of those teams.
Matthew Stafford should have the offense hitting on all cylinders against a soft as butter Jaguars defense that is giving up 29.4 points and 416.8 yards per game. They’ve traded away or lost in free agency almost all of their talent on the defensive side of the ball. Gardner Minshew is a solid quarterback, but he’s in over his head with the lack of talent surrounding him on offense as well.
Plays on any team (Detroit) - a good offensive team averaging 5.4 to 5.8 yards per play against a team with a terrible defense that is allowing 5.8 or more yards per play, after being outgained by 100 yards or more in their last game are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Lions Sunday.
|10-13-20||Bills -3.5 v. Titans||Top||16-42||Loss||-100||9 h 1 m||Show|
20* Bills/Titans AFC No-Brainer on Buffalo -3.5
What a mess the last couple weeks have been for the Tennessee Titans. They have now received a total of 24 positive Covid-19 tests dating back to September 24th. But they finally went two days in a row without a positive and now will be able to play this game Tuesday night.
All these positive tests have certainly made practice and prep for this game against Buffalo less than ideal to say the least. And I have to think they will be the less prepared team in this game, which is bad news going up against one of the best teams in the NFL in the Bills.
The Titans are very fortunate to be 3-0 against a very soft schedule, too. They have three wins against the Broncos, Jaguars and Vikings by a combined 6 points. Those three teams have a combined record of 3-11 this season.
Most concerning is a Tennessee defense that is allowing 24.7 points and 422.3 yards per game against those three teams, which don’t have great offenses, especially the Broncos and Jaguars. And now they have to face one of the league’s best offenses in the Bills, who average 30.8 points and 409.8 yards per game on the season.
Buffalo’s defensive numbers haven’t been up to par for the level of talent they have, but they’ve still managed to go 4-0. And a lot of that is due to injuries. But the Bills are starting to get healthier on that side of the ball, and having a few extra days here to get ready could get some guys back in the lineup that are listed as questionable.
Tennessee is 0-7 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last three seasons. Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Tennessee) - after allowing 30 points or more in two straight games against an opponent that scored 17 points or more in two straight are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS since 1983. Bet the Bills Tuesday.
|10-12-20||Chargers +8 v. Saints||Top||27-30||Win||100||107 h 59 m||Show|
20* Chargers/Saints ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles +8
The Los Angeles Chargers are much better than their 1-3 record would indicate. After going on the road and beating the Bengals 16-13, the Chargers have lost three straight. But they’ve lost to three very hot teams in the Chiefs, Panthers and Bucs all by 7 points or less.
They lost 20-23 (OT) to Kansas City and outgained the Chiefs by 65 yards. That game alone against the defending Super Bowl champs shows what they are capable of. They lost 16-21 to Carolina despite outgaining the Panthers by 134 yards. And last week they blew a 24-7 lead and lost to the Bucs, 31-38.
The Chargers should not be catching more than a touchdown against the Saints. I would argue the Chargers actually have the better quarterback in Justin Herbert, who has impressed as a rookie in his three starts. Herbert is completing 72% of his passes for 931 yards and averaging 8.0 yards per attempt.
Drew Brees has really started to show his age this season. Of course, injuries on offense have not helped matters as the Saints are just 2-2 this season. WR Michael Thomas has been out with an ankle injury since Week 1 and is questionable to return this week. Both starting tackles in Ryan Ramczyk and Andrus Peat are questionable this week, as is TE Jared Cook.
The Saints have also shown a lot of holes defensively this season and a lot of that has to do with injuries as well. Three of their best players in CB Marshon Lattimore, CB Janoris Jenkins and DE Marcus Davenport are all questionable this week. The Saints are giving up 30.8 points per game on the season, so it’s tough to trust them to lay 8 points with that kind of defense.
The Chargers are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 road games off three or more consecutive losses. Los Angeles is 33-15-4 ATS in its last 52 games as a road underdog. The Chargers are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog overall. The Saints are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as home favorites. Bet the Chargers Monday.
|10-11-20||Vikings +7 v. Seahawks||Top||26-27||Win||100||83 h 4 m||Show|
20* Vikings/Seahawks NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +7
The Minnesota Vikings are 1-3 this season but their three losses have come to teams that are a combined 10-1 this season. They did not look good the first couple weeks against the Packers and Colts, but they’ve turned it around since.
After a tough 30-31 loss to the unbeaten Titans, the Vikings went on the road last week and crushed Houston 31-23. Their offense has really gotten going the last couple weeks as they had 464 total yards against the Titans and 410 more against the Texans. Justin Jefferson has back-to-back 100-yard games and is clearly a great replacement for Diggs. And Dalvin Cook is simply a playmaker out of the backfield.
It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on the Seahawks, who are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season. They could easily be 1-3. They got a goal-line stand against the Patriots to preserve a 35-30 win, picked off Dak Prescott in the end zone to preserve a 38-31 win, and held the Dolphins to five field goals which was the difference in a 31-23 win.
Now the Seahawks are in their biggest favorite role of the season, laying 7 points to the Vikings this week. The Vikings can match the Seahawks score for score because Seattle has one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Indeed, the Seahawks rank 32nd in the NFL in giving up 476.8 yards per game. It will catch up with them eventually, and I believe it does this week. Injuries continue to pile up on the defensive side of the football for Seattle. The Seahawks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games. Take the Vikings Sunday.
|10-11-20||Dolphins +8.5 v. 49ers||Top||43-17||Win||100||96 h 13 m||Show|
25* NFL DOG OF THE YEAR on Miami Dolphins +8.5
The Miami Dolphins are 1-3 and desperate for a win. Their three losses this season have comes against three teams that are a combined 10-2 this season in the Patriots, Bills and Seahawks. Both both losses are by the Patriots, who lost to the Chiefs and Seahawks and gave both a run for their money.
The Dolphins had their chances to beat the Patriots but a INT inside the 5-yard line late prevented the comeback. The Dolphins hung right with the Bills and only lost 28-31. And they lost to the Seahawks by 8 last week, but that game was much closer than the 23-31 final would indicate.
The Dolphins had to settle for five field goals on their first five scoring drives, so they couldn’t capitalize in the red zone. They also had a busted coverage right before halftime that turned a 1-point game into an 8-point game going into intermission. The Seahawks got the ball back with 24 seconds left after yet another Miami field goal, and somehow managed to score a touchdown with three seconds left. The Dolphins were only outgained by 26 yards by Seattle.
And while the Dolphins have one of the best injury situations in the NFL, the 49ers have one of the worst. They had two more starters go down with injury last week in CB K’Waun Williams and DE Ezekiel Ansah, and both are out this week. Ansah was signed to replace Nick Bosa and Dee Ford, who are both on injured reserve, as are DT Solomon Thomas, CB Richard Sherman and C Weston Richburn. QB Jimmy G could return this week, but he’s really not much of an upgrade over Nick Mullens. And they have another handful of players questionable.
The 49ers are 2-2 this season with their only wins coming against arguably the two worst teams in the NFL in the Jets and Giants. They lost outright as home favorites of -6.5 or more to both the Cardinals and Eagles, and those losses look worse by the day, too. And this is a role they have struggled in for years.
In fact, the 49ers are 0-9 ATS in their last nine regular season games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or more dating back to 2014. More concerning yet is that the 49ers are 3-6 SU in this role. So don’t even consider using the 49ers in teasers or survivor pools this week. I have a large bet on the Dolphins +8.5 this week and some at +300 on the money line as well. Bet the Dolphins Sunday.
|10-11-20||Bengals +13 v. Ravens||3-27||Loss||-103||76 h 44 m||Show|
15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati Bengals +13
The Cincinnati Bengals have been extremely competitive this season and it’s all because of Joe Burrow. All four of their games have been decided by 8 points or fewer and I believe there’s a good chance this one is as well.
After losing to the Chargers by 3 and Browns by 5, the Bengals tied the Eagles 23-23 in Week 3. Then they had their coming out party last week in a 33-25 win over Jacksonville. They racked up 505 total yards in the win behind huge games from Burrow and Joe Mixon. With Burrow and an underrated arsenal of weapons at RB and receiver, the Bengals won’t be out of any game this season.
That’s why I like backing them catching 13 points against the Baltimore Ravens this week. The Ravens let Washington hang around last week and won 31-17 as a 14-point favorite. Cincinnati is a lot better than Washington, so catching 13 points with the Bengals is a really nice value. And keep in mind the Ravens only outgained Washington by 7 yards in that game. In fact, the Ravens are actually getting outgained by 27.2 yards per game on the season. They aren’t as dominant as everyone makes them out to be.
Plays against home favorites of 10.5 or more points (Baltimore) - after having won two of their last three games, in October games are 40-13 (75.5%) ATS since 1983. Cincinnati is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games as a road underdog. Baltimore is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games as a home favorite. The Ravens simply should not be favored by double-digits here. Roll with the Bengals Sunday.
|10-08-20||Bucs -3.5 v. Bears||Top||19-20||Loss||-108||11 h 5 m||Show|
20* Bucs/Bears FOX No-Brainer on Tampa Bay -3.5
The Tampa Bay Bucs have really improved rapidly since a season-opening loss to the Saints on the road. And even that game wasn’t as bad as the score as they lost the turnover battle 3-0 and held the Saints to 271 total yards.
The Bucs have reeled off three straight wins by a combined 39 points since. And now they head to Chicago to face a Bears team that really could be 0-4 right now, but they’re 3-1 and overvalued as a result.
The Bears came back from 17 points down in the 4th quarter to beat the Lions in their opener. They had to come up with a defensive stand on the final drive to beat the Giants 17-13. They came back from 16 points down in the 4th quarter to beat the Falcons. And last week they lost 11-19 to the Colts in a game that wasn’t even as close as the score would indicate.
The Colts held the Bears to just 3 points through the first 58 minutes of that game. But the Bears got a garbage TD late and a 2-point conversion to turn a 19-3 game into a 19-11 one. It’s clear that Nick Foles is not the savior and probably not even much of an upgrade over Mitch Trubisky, who at least has a dual-threat ability.
Tampa Bay is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games after scoring 35 points or more last game. This Bucs offense is humming, averaging 32.3 points per game in their last three. Tom Brady threw for 369 yards and five touchdowns against a very good Chargers defense last week. The Bears are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Chicago is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a loss. The Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Bucs Thursday.
|10-05-20||Falcons +7.5 v. Packers||Top||16-30||Loss||-120||99 h 6 m||Show|
20* Falcons/Packers ESPN No-Brainer on Atlanta +7.5
It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the Green Bay Packers. They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season against the Vikings, Lions and Saints, who are a combined 2-7 this season. They are coming off their big upset win over the overrated Saints on Sunday Night Football last week.
It’s also a great time to ‘buy low’ on the 0-3 Atlanta Falcons, who have lost to three teams that are a combined 7-2 on the season. And keep in mind the Falcons were in all three of those games. They had 506 total yards against the Seahawks, then blew a 15-point 4th quarter lead against the Cowboys and a 16-point 4th quarter lead against the Bears.
It’s clear the Falcons can play with anyone if they don’t beat themselves. They have one of the best offenses in the NFL in scoring 30 points per game and averaging 419 yards per game. And there’s a good chance they get Julio Jones back from injury this week.
Speaking of injuries, Aaron Rodgers could be without his top two receivers this week, and there’s really not much talent at all behind Devante Adams and Allen Lazard. Adams missed last week with a hamstring injury and is questionable, while Lazard had surgery on a core muscle and is out multiple weeks. That’s a big blow as Lazard and Adams have combined for 30 receptions for 446 yards and four touchdowns through three games.
The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games and 5-0 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs. Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog. The road team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings. The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Lambeau Field. Bet the Falcons Monday.
|10-04-20||Eagles +7.5 v. 49ers||25-20||Win||100||74 h 26 m||Show|
15* Eagles/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia +7.5
This is a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Philadelphia Eagles. They have opened 0-2-1 this season despite being favored in all three games. Now they have moved to whopping +7.5-point underdogs to the San Francisco 49ers this week.
It’s also a great time to ’sell high’ on the 49ers, who are coming off two straight blowout victories over arguably the two worst teams in the NFL in the Jets and Giants. The 49ers have the worst injury situation in the entire NFL and have been able to overcome it against those two teams. But they won’t be able to against the Eagles, at least not enough to put them away by 8-plus points, which is what it’s going to take to cover this spread.
The 49ers are without five of their best defensive players in Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas, Dee Ford, Dre Greenlaw and Richard Sherman. They are without C Richburg, RB Coleman, RB Mostert and they could be without QB Garoppolo and WR Samuel. The Eagles also have some injuries, but they are nowhere near as bad as the situation for the 49ers.
The Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs. Philadelphia is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in San Francisco. The 49ers are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite. They lost outright as 7-point home favorites over the Cardinals in Week 1. Roll with the Eagles Sunday.
|10-04-20||Seahawks v. Dolphins +7||Top||31-23||Loss||-115||95 h 9 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Dolphins +7
It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on the Seattle Seahawks. They have opened the season 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS despite having a terrible defense that gives up 28.7 points and 497 yards per game. They just cannot be trusted in this price range with this awful of a defense.
The Seahawks are coming off two straight last-second home wins over the Patriots and Cowboys. They stopped the Patriots at the 1-yard line to preserve that win, and then they picked off Dat Prescott in the end zone to preserve their win over the Cowboys last week.
Now this has the makings of a letdown spot for Seattle going on the road to face the Dolphins. It’s a West Coast team traveling East for that dreaded early 10:00 AM body clock game. It’s just a terrible spot for the Seahawks.
The Dolphins are just 1-2 this season, but they had their chances to win in their opener against the Patriots. And they only lost 28-31 to a very good Buffalo team that is 3-0. And last Thursday they dominated the Jaguars every way you can in a 31-13 road win as 3-point underdogs.
Now the Dolphins are playing on extra rest and will have more time to prepare for the Seahawks after playing on Thursday last week. And this is a team that really believes in Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. He completed 90% of his passes against the Jaguars last week and is still somehow grossly underrated as a starter in this league.
The Seahawks have all kinds of injuries right now. They are missing several players in the secondary and at linebacker on defense. Both starting guards got hurt last week on the offensive line, as did their best running back in Chris Carson. Few teams have been hit harder by injuries early in the season than the Seahawks, and it’s eventually going to catch up to them. Not even Russell Wilson can save the day.
Plays against favorites (Seattle) who are off a home win, in the first month of the season are 81-43 (65.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as home underdogs. Miami is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win. The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet the Dolphins Sunday.
|10-01-20||Broncos v. Jets -1||Top||37-28||Loss||-105||11 h 35 m||Show|
20* Broncos/Jets AFC No-Brainer on New York -1
The injury situations for both the New York Jets and Denver Broncos are a mess. I just think the injuries are worse for the Broncos, and the short week will favor Sam Darnold and the Jets over third-string QB Brett Rypien and Denver.
The Broncos had a combined 18 Pro Bowls when the 53-man roster was finalized to begin the season. Now, only Melvin Gordon and his two Pro Bowls are left after Von Miller, Jurell Casey, Courtland Sutton, Phillip Lindsay and A.J. Bouye all went out with injuries. Rypien will be making his first NFL start in place of the benched Jeff Driskel, who took the place of injured starter Drew Lock.
Certainly there hasn’t been much to like about the Jets this season. But they have played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL against the Bills, 49ers and Colts, who are a combined 7-2 on the season. This is a big step down in class for them and a game they can certainly win.
Coach Adam Gase likes the way that Darnold is showing some fire and doing everything he can to get this thing turned around. And Darnold will get back one of his favorite weapons in Jamison Crowder from injury. Crowder had seven receptions on 13 targets for 115 yards and a touchdown in the opener against Buffalo before missing the past two games with injury. Bet the Jets Thursday.
|09-28-20||Chiefs v. Ravens -3.5||Top||34-20||Loss||-106||93 h 37 m||Show|
20* Chiefs/Ravens ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Baltimore -3.5
The Baltimore Ravens have had this game circled on their calendars all offseason. And they’ve done a good job of not overlooking their first two opponents to get to it, handling their business in a 38-6 home win over Cleveland as a 7-point favorite and a 33-16 road win at Houston as a 7-point favorite. It’s clear the Ravens are the best team in the NFL, and they’re going to be out to prove it Monday night in a big way.
The Chiefs barely escaped with a 23-20 win at Los Angeles as 9-point favorites last week against a rookie QB in Justin Herbert, who diced them up. The Chiefs allowed 479 total yards to a bad Chargers offense in that game, and they have a mess of injuries up and down their defense that is going to hurt them against the Ravens.
These teams have a common opponent to compare to in the Texans. The Ravens were much more dominant in their 33-16 road win than the score would even indicate. They outgained the Texans by 103 yards. The Chiefs only outgained the Texans by 9 yards in their 34-20 home win that was much closer than the score would indicate. And after that Chargers game, the Chiefs are now getting outgained by 28 yards per game on the season, while the Ravens have outgained their two opponents by an average of 87 yards per game.
Baltimore also wants revenge from a 28-33 loss to the Chiefs last season and a 24-27 (OT) loss in 2018. The Ravens are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. AFC opponents. Baltimore is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a win. Bet the Ravens Monday.
|09-27-20||Cowboys +5 v. Seahawks||31-38||Loss||-109||65 h 51 m||Show|
15* Cowboys/Seahawks Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Dallas +5
The Dallas Cowboys are coming off the type of win that could really rally their team this week. They suffered a tough 17-20 loss to the Rams in Week 1. Then they found themselves trailing 24-39 to the Falcons with under five minutes remaining in the third quarter last week.
But the Cowboys kept fighting, got it to a 2-point game, and recovered a great onside kick. They went on to kick the game-winning field goal and beat the Falcons 40-39. I think they carry that momentum into this week against the Seattle Seahawks, who won’t have a home-field advantage at all like they normally do with the 12th man.
And without that home-field advantage, plus having a defense that is soft as better, the Seahawks cannot be laying 5 points this week to the Cowboys. I look at these are pretty much even teams, so I’m going to take the 5 points every time.
Indeed, the Seahawks are giving up a whopping 27.5 points and 485 yards per game through two games. The Falcons diced them up for 508 yards in Week 1, and Cam Newton had his best game in years with 397 passing yards last week. Dak Prescott is going to dice them up this week as he has some of the best weapons in the NFL, and that was on display against the Falcons last week as the Cowboys racked up 570 total yards in their comeback win.
The Seahawks are also being overvalued due to all of the MVP talk surrounding Russell Wilson. This is simply the case of the betting public getting mesmerized by the fancy offense the Seahawks have put up so far. And they’re overlooking their atrocious defense. And Wilson faced two soft defenses in the Falcons and Patriots as well. It’s also a bit of a letdown spot after beating the Patriots on Sunday Night Football.
Dallas is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 road games after trailing in its previous game by 14 or more points at halftime. The Cowboys are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 road games after allowing 35 points or more last game. Dallas is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog. Seattle is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 home games.
Plays against home favorites (Seattle) - with a poor scoring defense from last season that allowed 24 or more points per game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 25-3 (89.3%) ATS since 1983. Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.
|09-27-20||Bears v. Falcons -3||Top||30-26||Loss||-110||95 h 37 m||Show|
20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Falcons -3
There is a big strength of schedule gap here between the Falcons and Bears thus far. The Falcons are 0-2, but they’ve lost to the Seahawks and Cowboys. The Bears are 2-0, but they’ve only beaten the Lions and Giants by a combined 7 points.
The Bears came back from a 23-6 deficit in the 4th quarter against a depleted Lions secondary in Week 1 that went on to get gashed by the Packers last week. And they only beat the banged-up Giants 17-13 at home, failing to cover as 5.5-point favorites.
The Falcons beat themselves against the Seahawks, gaining 508 total yards and outgaining the Seahawks by 123 yards. And then they blew a 39-24 4th quarter lead against the Cowboys with under five minutes remaining last week. It was a fluky loss as Atlanta had a chance to put the game away, but Julio Jones dropped a wide open TD pass he normally would catch.
Matt Ryan and this Falcons offense is hitting on all cylinders. They have some of the best talent in the NFL at receiver and that has been on display through two weeks. The Bears still have Mitch Trubisky at quarterback, and it’s just hard to trust him to play at anything other than a below-average level week in and week out because he is arguably the worst starting QB in the NFL.
Chicago is 0-7 ATS after playing a home games over the last two seasons. The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games with their only win coming with that miracle comeback win at Detroit in Week 1. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet the Falcons Sunday.
|09-27-20||Washington Football Team +7.5 v. Browns||20-34||Loss||-114||61 h 27 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington +7.5
I faded the Browns with success last week as I stated they shouldn’t be 6-point favorites against almost anyone in the NFL, and the Bengals came through in a 5-point loss. And now I’m definitely fading the Browns again this week laying a whopping 7.5 points to Washington.
I think it’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on Washington after losing 15-30 at Arizona last week. Arizona just looks like the real deal through two weeks, so it’s not a bad loss. And people are quick to forget they upset the Eagles 27-17 as 5.5-point dogs in Week 1. It’s a Washington team that is consistently going to have its lines inflated because the betting public wants nothing to do with them because they aren’t flashy.
But the Redskins are strong where it counts as they have arguably the best defensive line in the NFL. They sacked Carson Wentz eight times in Week 1 thanks to having five former first-round picks up front. And they will make life difficult on the overrated Baker Mayfield in this one, while also shutting down Cleveland’s solid rushing tack of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, who went off against a soft Bengals defense last week.
The Browns have injuries all over their defense that should lead to the best game of the season thus far for Dwayne Haskins and company. Pass rushers Vernon and Clayborn are questionable, as are defensive backs Ward and Williams. And they’re already missing Delpit in the secondary. We saw Joe Burrow dice up the Browns for 30 points and 285 passing yards last week to keep the Bengals in the game as they just just couldn’t get him off the field.
Ron Rivera is 24-8 ATS off a road loss in all games he has coached. Rivera is 10-2 ATS off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more in all games he has coached. The Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as favorites. Cleveland is 24-50-2 ATS in its last 76 games overall.
Plays against home favorites (Cleveland) with a poor scoring defense from last season that allowed 24 or more points per game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 25-3 (89.3%) ATS since 1983. Take Washington Sunday.
|09-24-20||Dolphins +3 v. Jaguars||31-13||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
15* Dolphins/Jaguars AFC ANNIHILATOR on Miami +3
The Miami Dolphins will be highly motivated for a victory Thursday after opening 0-2 this season. But they’ve played a brutal schedule facing both the Patriots and Bills, two of the best teams in the AFC. Now they take a big step down in class here against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Dolphins nearly covered as 7-point dogs against the Patriots but lost 11-21 after Ryan Fitzpatrick threw an INT from inside the 10-yard line in the closing minutes. They did cover as 5.5-point dogs in a 28-31 loss to Buffalo last week. And they should not be catching a full 3 points against the Jaguars this week, if catching points at all.
The Jaguars are getting a lot of respect for starting 2-0 ATS. They got a miracle 27-20 win over the Colts as 7-point dogs despite getting outgained by 204 yards. And last week’s performance was much better despite losing, falling 30-33 as 7-point dogs at Tennessee. Then again, I think the Titans are overvalued as well after what they did making a run to the AFC Championship last year.
The Jaguars lost almost all of their best players on defense this offseason, which is why they can’t be trusted in the favorites role. They give up 26.5 points and 399.5 yards per game thus far. Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to find plenty of holes in their D, especially after he led the Dolphins to 28 points against a very good Buffalo D last week.
Plays against home favorites (Jacksonville) - a team with a poor scoring defense from last season that allowed 24 or more points per game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS since 1983. Miami is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games overall. Jacksonville is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite. Take the Dolphins Thursday.
|09-21-20||Saints v. Raiders +5.5||Top||24-34||Win||100||98 h 14 m||Show|
20* Saints/Raiders ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Oakland +5.5
The Los Vegas Raiders are primed to take another step forward under John Gruden. He added a ton of speed on offense at the skill positions, and he shored up the defense in the offseason through free agency. The Raiders are definitely a team to watch out for in 2020.
They opened their season with a 34-30 win at Carolina as 3-point favorites. The offense played well in gaining 372 total yards, and the defense played well for three quarters as the Raiders had a 27-15 lead heading into the fourth. I don’t think their task will be much tougher against the Saints at all this week defensively.
New Orleans is coming off a misleading 34-23 win over Tampa Bay last week. The Saints only gained 271 total yards in that game, but they won the turnover battle 3-0, which was the difference. Now the Saints’ offense takes a huge hit as they’ll be without the most productive receiver in the NFL in Michael Thomas for at least a few weeks with an ankle injury. He is Drew Brees’ security blanket, and without him this offense is average at best.
Plays against favorites (New Orleans) - off a home win, in the first month of the season are 77-37 (67.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Raiders will be pumped to break in the all-new Allegiant Stadium tonight. They should not be catching 5.5 points against the Saints tonight in a game they can win outright. Bet the Raiders Monday.
|09-20-20||Washington Football Team +7 v. Cardinals||15-30||Loss||-105||70 h 4 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Washington +7
I cashed in Washington against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1. It didn’t look good early as they were down 17-0. But they dug in and completely shut down the Eagles the rest of the way, eventually winning 27-17. They forced four 3 and outs, stopped the Eagles twice on downs, and forced three turnovers after being down 17-0.
I mentioned in my analysis on that pick that Washington had the best defensive line in the NFL, and teams can win with a good defensive line. They drafted the best player in the draft in Chase Young, who had a sack and basically forced two fumbles. Young joins four other first-round picks on this dominant Washington defensive line.
They sacked Carson Wentz a whopping eight times in that game. They held the Eagles to just 265 total yards. And they have what it takes up front to get after Kyler Murray this week and slow him down.
The Cardinals are simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers off their upset win over the 49ers. That was a 49ers team that only had three healthy receivers and were down to a third-string center. Now the Cardinals go from being 7-point dogs to the 49ers to 7-point favorites over the Redskins. That’s a 14-point swing, and for comparison’s sake, the 49ers aren’t 14 points better than the Redskins.
Washington head coach Ron Rivera will see that DeAndre Hopkins had 14 catches against the 49ers and game plan around stopping him. Murray had 14 completions to Hopkins and only 12 other completions. So it’s pretty clear they are making a point of getting the ball to Hopkins, so expect plenty of double-teams on him.
Washington is a perfect 7-0 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last three seasons. Rivera is 17-6 ATS off an upset win as an underdog in all games he has coached. So he is good at getting his team to keep playing with momentum off a big win. Washington will give Arizona a run for its money. Roll with Washington Sunday.
|09-20-20||Giants +5.5 v. Bears||Top||13-17||Win||100||67 h 60 m||Show|
20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Giants +5.5
The Chicago Bears had one of the luckiest wins you will ever see against the Detroit Lions last week. They trailed 23-6 in the 4th quarter and had about a 2% chance to win. They went on to score three straight touchdowns to take the 27-23 lead, only to let the Lions drive down for the potential game-winning touchdown. But DeAndre Swift dropped a would-be TD in the end zone and the Bears won.
The Lions had a couple players go down to injury in the secondary, and Mitchell Trubisky went from looking like the worst quarterback in the NFL for three quarters, to Joe Montana in the fourth quarter. I believe Trubisky is the former and not the latter, and that will prove to be the case as the season goes on.
While the Bears played a pretty easy opponent in Week 1, the Giants got stuck playing the Pittsburgh Steelers. They lost 16-26 to a Steelers team that just got Big Ben back healthy this season. But what made that game so difficult was the Steelers defense, which is easily a Top 5 unit and potential the best defense in the NFL.
This is a much easier test for Daniel Jones and the offense as well as this Giants defense. There’s no way the Bears should be favored by 5.5 points against almost any team in the NFL this season. So we are going to grab these points this week.
And it’s worth noting three key defensive players are questionable for the Bears this week in LB Khalil Mack, LB Robert Quinn and DT Akeem Hicks. The Giants should get back WR Golden Tate from a hamstring injury this week to give Jones another weapon outside. He has plenty of them now with Tate, Shepard, Engram and Barkley to produce a quality offense.
The Giants are a perfect 9-0 ATS in games played on a grass field over the last three seasons. New York is 10-2 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last three years. Chicago is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games off a close win by 7 points or less over a division opponent. The Bears are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. NFC East opponents. The Giants are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as road underdogs. New York is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games overall. Chicago is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite. The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. New York is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and 4-0 ATS in its last four trips to Chicago. Bet the Giants Sunday.
|09-20-20||Rams v. Eagles -105||37-19||Loss||-105||67 h 60 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Philadelphia Eagles ML -105
This line is a complete overreaction to what happened Week 1. The Eagles opened as 3.5-point favorites and the money has poured in on the Rams early in the week, going to Rams -1 as of this writing. That’s a 4.5-point adjustment, and an overreaction to Week 1 results.
The Eagles were upset 17-27 by the Redskins as roughly 6-point favorites in Week 1. They blew a 17-0 lead against a Washington team that I am higher on than most. I had Washington in that game and they delivered for me with the comeback. Their best defensive line in the league sacked Carson Wentz eight times. The task gets much easier for Wentz this week against the Rams.
Meanwhile, the Rams upset the Cowboys 20-17 last week as 3-point dogs to open, but eventually that line was bet down to close to a pick ‘em. I also cashed in the Rams in that game and felt kind of fortunate that there was an offensive pass interference call that changed the game. The Cowboys were a mess defensively with injuries, and the Rams still only managed 20 points on them.
Things get much tougher for Jared Goff and company this week. The Eagles have a Top 10 defense and they’ll be able to slow down Goff and company. Plus they’ll be playing with a chip on their shoulder, while the Rams will be feeling pretty good about themselves after upsetting the Cowboys.
Teams that were 5.5-point favorites or more in Week 1 that lost outright come back to go 26-11 ATS in their last 37 tries in Week 2. This trend makes sense why it works because it’s betting on teams that were supposed to be good coming into the season, they laid an egg in Week 1, and they’re likely to bounce back in Week 2. That’s the case for the Eagles Sunday.
The Eagles are getting a lot of good news on the injury front. They had several offensive linemen go down to injuries against the Redskins. But G Jason Peters and T Lane Johnson are both listed as probable as of Thursday, and those are two of their best linemen. RB Miles Sanders is also probable after sitting out last week, and DE Derek Barnett is probable as well after sitting out last week.
The Rams are 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six meetings with the Eagles. Philadelphia is 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Los Angeles. Dating back further, Philadelphia is 10-3 SU & 11-1-1 ATS in its last 13 meetings with the Rams. Take the Eagles Sunday.
|09-17-20||Bengals +6 v. Browns||Top||30-35||Win||100||10 h 39 m||Show|
20* Bengals/Browns AFC North No-Brainer on Cincinnati +6
The Cincinnati Bengals looked pretty good Week 1 all things considered. They were breaking in a new quarterback in Joe Burrow, who won us a lot of money when he was at LSU and who I have a lot of confidence will continue his success in the NFL. And he did everything he could to win them the game in Week 1.
Indeed, Burrow drove the Bengals down for what would have been the game-winning score to AJ Green, but Green was called for offensive pass interference. The Bengals then had to settle for a field goal attempt, which Randy Bullock somehow missed. He either really injured his calf or faked it because he missed it so badly.
The Bengals lost the turnover battle 2-0 in that game but still had a chance to win. And their defense held the Chargers to just 16 points and 16-of-30 passing for 207 yards in the loss. I like the weapons on this team for Burrow with Green, Mixon, Boyd and company. The Bengals’ stock is going to rise rapidly this year.
The Browns couldn’t have looked worse in Week 1, and I don’t know how they can come back as 6-point favorites after their performance. They lost 6-38 to the Ravens as 7-point underdogs. Baker Mayfield continues to show he has been a bust as he went 21-of-39 for 180 yards with a touchdown and an interception. He averaged just 4.8 yards per attempt in the loss.
More concerning for the Browns was all their injuries. They lost three of four starters in the secondary for that game in rookie Grant Delpit, CB Greedy Williams and CB Kevin Johnson. All three will be out once again on a short week this week. Not to mention, they lost starting LB Jacob Phillips and OT Jedrick Willis in that Ravens game. Phillips is out, while Willis is questionable. They are a mess right now in the injury department to say the least.
A very bad Cincinnati team last year played Cleveland tough in both meetings. They lost 19-27 in the first matchup despite outgaining the Browns 451 to 333 and and holding a 27 to 17 edge in first downs. They got their revenge in Week 17 with a 33-23 win and also outgained the Browns 361 to 313. Now Cincinnati actually has a quarterback instead of a third-stringer, plus one of the top WR’s in the league in Green is back from injury.
The Bengals are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs. Cincinnati is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 September games. The Browns are 24-49-2 ATS in their last 75 games overall. Cleveland is 16-38-1 ATS in its last 55 games following a loss. The Bengals are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Cleveland. Bet the Bengals Thursday.
|09-14-20||Titans v. Broncos +3||Top||16-14||Win||103||11 h 3 m||Show|
20* Titans/Broncos ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +3
The Denver Broncos closed strong last season in Vic Fangio’s first year on the job. They went 4-1 in their final five games last year with their only loss coming to the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs on the road in the snow.
The Broncos found their QB of the future down the stretch, too. Drew Lock came in and played very well to close out the season. He completed 100-of-156 (64.1%) passes for 1,020 yards with seven touchdowns and three interceptions.
The Broncos have now surrounded him with weapons by drafting Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler in the first two rounds of the draft. They already have Courtland Sutton and Noah Fantasias, previous high picks who were the top two receivers last year. And they added in Melvin Gordon, who is just one of three RB’s with 40-catch seasons in each of the past four years. He’ll combined with two-time 1,000-yard rusher Philip Lindsay in the backfield.
While the Broncos will have a much more potent offense than they did a year ago, the defense is also going to be a strength. Too much had been made of the Von Miller injury, and I think the Broncos are undervalued in Week 1 because of it. They still have a loaded defense that ranked 10th in the NFL in scoring last year, giving up just 19.8 points per game.
The Broncos added in former Titan Jurrell Casey at defensive tackle, and he’s one of the best players in the game. He is also going to be motivated to face his former team, and he’ll be able to offer plenty of insight to Denver coaches about what the Titans like to run on both sides of the ball. That’s a huge advantage. They do lose CB Chris Harris, but new CB A.J. Bouye comes over from the Jaguars and may actually be a better fit for Fangio’s zone-based scheme.
The Titans are getting too much hype to start 2020 after the incredible run they made to close last year. They went 9-4 with Ryan Tannehill as a starter, and they made it all the way to the AFC Championship Game after upsetting both the Patriots and Ravens on the road. They held a double-digit lead on the Chiefs before falling 24-35.
The Titans won me a lot of money during that stretch, but that’s because they were undervalued and consistently underdogs. But now they open up as 3-point road favorites in Week 1. As I mentioned, the Titans lost Casey, their best defensive player. They also lost T Jack Conklin and CB Logan Ryan, two of their best players as well who started all 16 games for them last year.
Two of their biggest signings were pass rushers Vic Beasley and Jadeveon Clowney. Beasley wore out his welcome in Atlanta and wasn’t productive at all, and Clowney just can’t seem to stay on the field as he is always injured. Beasley didn’t pass his physical until September 5th after spending training camp on the non-football injury list. Clowney didn’t sign his contract until September 7th. Playing int he altitude of Denver will limit the number of reps both get.
Derrick Henry has had two of his worst games against the Broncos. Henry ran 12 times for 42 yards as a rookie in 2016, and he was held to 28 yards on 15 carries in a 16-0 loss to the Broncos last year. You know Fangio is going to make stopping Henry the focal point, and now with Casey as a run-stuffer, the Broncos have the players up front to do it again.
Denver is 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Tennessee. Both of the Titans' wins came by exactly 3 points. Denver’s five wins came by an average of 16.0 points per game. Bet the Broncos Monday.
|09-13-20||Cowboys v. Rams +2.5||17-20||Win||100||10 h 56 m||Show|
15* Cowboys/Rams NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +2.5
You’re just not hearing a lot of talk about the Los Angeles Rams this year. They are kind of the forgotten team. They just went to the Super Bowl two years ago, and followed it up with a disappointing 9-7 year last year.
But the Rams did manage to go 11-5 ATS last year, which is impressive for a team coming off a Super Bowl appearance. They were 7th in total offense and 13th in total defense, so they were still a pretty good team.
Los Angeles’ offense is loaded once again this year. Jared Goff led the 4th-ranked passing attack last year. And I love the continuity this offense has coming off a crazy offseason with no preseason games.
The Cowboys’ situation is much worse. They brought in Mike McCarthy to install a new system. And while the Cowboys are loaded with talent on offense, it’s going to take a few weeks to be hitting on all cylinders on that side of the ball. I expect the Rams to be efficient in Week 1.
The Cowboys are going to have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They failed to address needs on this side of the ball. They lost their most productive defender in Robert Quinn, who has 11.5 sacks last year. They lost their best CB in Byron Jones to the Dolphins.
Dallas signed DT Gerald McCoy, but he was lost for the season three weeks ago with a torn ACL. They are actually hoping for Aldon Smith and Randy Gregory to return from indefinite suspensions due to off-the-field issues. Jaylon Smith is their only reliable linebacker, and their secondary really takes a hit with the loss of Jones. The Rams are just in a better position here in Week 1 and should not be the underdogs in this matchup. Roll with the Rams Sunday.
|09-13-20||Dolphins +7.5 v. Patriots||Top||11-21||Loss||-116||3 h 36 m||Show|
20* AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Dolphins +7.5
The Miami Dolphins did a great job to get to 5-11 SU & 9-7 ATS last year. They really came on strong in the second half. Head coach Brian Flores has the pulse of his team, and they fought hard to the wire last year.
That included a 27-24 upset win over the Patriots as 15.5-point dogs in Week 17 when the Patriots were playing for home-field advantage. And I like the continuity on this team now that Flores has named Ryan Fitzpatrick the starter, which was the right move.
The Dolphins bring back all 11 starters on defense and add in CB Byron Jones, DE Shaq Lawson and LB Kyle Van Noy. Offensively they bring in RB Jordan Howard from Philadelphia and RB Matt Breida from San Francisco. The chemistry between Fitzpatrick and his young receivers should be even better this year.
No doubt Cam Newton will be playing with a chip on his shoulder this year, but things aren’t going to go smoothly in Week 1 as he adjusts to the new offense. And the Patriots had several players opt out in the offseason in Dont’a Hightower, Patrick Chung, Marcus Cannon, Brandon Bolden and Matt LaCosse. They cannot be more than 7-point favorites in the opener against Miami. Bet the Dolphins Sunday.
|09-13-20||Eagles v. Washington Football Team +6.5||17-27||Win||100||3 h 36 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Washington Redskins +6.5
The Washington Redskins come into the 2020 season undervalued off a 3-13 campaign last year. Ron Rivera takes over and enters his 10th season as a head coach. I think he is still one of the better coaches in the NFL as his players always respect and play hard for him.
The Redskins were terrible through the first 10 games last year, but they got much better down the stretch. They went 2-4 in their last six games, but they were competitive in losses to the Packers (by 5), Eagles (by 10) and Giants (OT). Their only blowout loss came in Week 17 to the Cowboys.
Dwayne Haskins got some valuable playing time down the stretch and should be ready for a breakout sophomore season at quarterback. The Redskins are going to have an offense similar to that of the Ravens that is going to be tough for opposing defenses to deal with.
Defensively, they drafted Chase Allen, arguably the best player in the draft. And now they have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL. Young joins a unit that already includes four first-round picks in Ryan Kerrigan, Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne and Montez Sweat. We’ve seen in the NFL that having a dominant defensive line is the most important position group there is.
The Eagles had 10 of their 16 games last year decided by one score. So that fact alone says there’s value here with the Redskins catching nearly a full touchdown. The Eagles lose a ton of key pieces in S Jenkins, CB Darby, DT Jernigan, T Peters and WR Agholor, and their secondary is still a problem. Take the Redskins Sunday.