20* Bills/Broncos AFC Divisional Round No-Brainer on Denver ML +100

The Denver Broncos are 13-1 in their last 14 games overall.  Even in the game they lost, it was a misleading final as they outgained the Jaguars 445 to 346 but were -2 in turnovers in Week 15.  They were 3.5-point home favorites over the Jaguars, who were just 1.5-point home favorites over the Bills last week.  So from a line value perspective alone, the Broncos should be closer to 3-point favorites here if the Jaguars were just favored over the Bills in what was essentially a coin flip game.

The Bills came out of that game battered a bruised.  Josh Allen came into the game with a toe injury, and he proceeded to get checked for a concussion, and suffered injuries to his hand and his knee throughout the game.  He is nowhere near 100%, and he just doesn't have much help around him, especially with all the other injuries they are dealing with.

WR's Tyrell Shavers and Gabe Davis both suffered season-ending injuries in the game, and RB Ty Johnson is questionable.  The Bills are basically down to 3 healthy receivers in Khalil Shakir, Brandin Cooks and Keon Coleman.  Only Shakir of those three is reliable as Cooks is a journeyman while Coleman has been a healthy scratch at times this year.  The Broncos are one of the best defenses in the NFL at defending tight ends, and Patrick Surtain could shadow Dalton Kincaid, something he has done in the past against elite TE's.

Defensively, the Bills lost SS Jordan Poyer (71 tackles) and LB Terrel Bernard (67 tackles) to injuries against the Jaguars.  They were already without CB Maxwell Hairston (18 tackles, 2 INT).  This is already one of the worst defenses in the NFL, especially against the run.  They rank 28th allowing 137.2 rushing yards per game and 30th allowing 5.2 yards per carry.  The Jaguars just rushed for 154 yards and 6.7 per carry against them last week.

You can bet head coach Sean Payton is going to put this game in the hands of RJ Harvey and this Denver rushing attack as much as possible to exploit Buffalo's biggest weakness, which is their run defense.  The Broncos are better than the Bills everywhere except at QB, which is why I'm not that concerned about backing Bo Nix here.  The Broncos will be able to run the ball, which will open things up for Nix in the play-action passing game and he won't have to do it all on his own.

I obviously like the fact that the Broncos earned the No. 1 seed and a bye week.  They will be fresh and ready to go, and they are the healthiest team in the NFL in these playoffs which is a huge advantage for them.  They have the best defense in these playoffs if it's not the Texans.  The Broncos rank 3rd in scoring defense at 18.3 points per game, 2nd in total defense at 278.2 yards per game and 1st at 4.8 yards per play.  They are 2nd against the run at 91.1 yards per game, so they will be able to contain James Cook.

The Broncos have the best pass rush in the NFL ranking 1st in the league in sacks by a landslide with 68 sacks.  Josh Allen struggles against teams that can pressure the passer, and we saw that time and time again this season.  The Falcons rank 2nd in sacks, and the Bills were upset 24-14 in Atlanta and managed just 291 total yards.  The Browns were 3rd in sacks, and the Bills were fortunate to escape with a 23-20 win in Cleveland against Shedeur Sanders, managing just 259 total yards.  The Texans are 9th in sacks, and the Bills lost 23-19 in Houston to Davis Mills.

Sean Payton is 4-0 SU in the playoffs with extended prep time/rest.  The Broncos are extra motivated after getting knocked out of the playoffs by the Bills in Buffalo last year.  The Broncos are 13-2 SU in home games with Carl Cheffers as the head ref.  Sean Payton is 16-3 SU with Cheffers in his career as the head official.  The Bills are on a short week playing the early Saturday game after facing the Jaguars last Sunday.  I'll gladly back the more rested, healthier, team that is better everywhere but at QB in this game at home.  Bet the Broncos on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Texans/Steelers ESPN MNF No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +3.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 23-0 SU at home on Monday Night Football dating back to 1992 when there have been fans in the stands.  Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 23-5 SU on Monday Night Football home or away.

The Steelers managed to beat the Ravens 26-24 as 4.5-point home underdogs in Week 18 to win the division and get into the playoffs.  They did it without their best weapon in DK Metcalf (59 receptions, 850 yards, 6 TD), a compliment to Aaron Rodgers and his ability to get the most out of this offense.  Rodgers threw for 294 yards and a TD in the win.

Now Metcalf is back and the Steelers are as healthy as they have been on offense all season.  No. 2 receiver Calvin Austin had 3 receptions for 55 yards and a TD against the Ravens in his return from injury.  Kenneth Gainwell is an absolute weapon out of the backfield, catching 8 balls for 64 yards in the win.

The Steelers are also very healthy on defense right now and playing well.  They got TJ Watt back for the game against Baltimore, and he is good to go for the playoffs.  The Steelers are 6th in the NFL in sacks this season, and they are great at getting pressure on opposing QB's.  And I think that will be the difference in this game.

CJ Stroud plays behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.  He is also not very mobile and more of a pocket passer.  The Steelers will be getting after him for four quarters.  Meanwhile, the Steelers have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and Aaron Rodgers gets the ball out quicker than any other QB.  That helps negate Houston's pass rush, which ranks 9th in the NFL in sacks per game.  The Steelers will come up with creative ways to take away Houston's biggest strength, which is their pass rush.

The home-field advantage for the Steelers for a Monday Night game isn't being factored into this line enough.  This line should be much closer to PK.  So getting +3.5 with the Steelers at home is a tremendous value, which I grabbed early in the week.  I still think there's plenty of value at the current line of +3 as of this writing, and I wouldn't be surprised if it closes +2.5.  I fully expect the Steelers to win this game outright.  Bet the Steelers Monday.

15* Chargers/Patriots NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 45

The Patriots have an elite offense and are fully healthy on offense heading into the playoffs.  They rank 2nd in scoring offense at 28.8 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 379.4 yards per game and 1st at 6.5 yards per play.  They will hang a big number on the Chargers in this one, and the Chargers will be forced to keep up in a shootout.

The Patriots do have inflated numbers defensive due to playing the weakest schedule of opposing QB's.  In their last two games against good QB's, the Patriots won 28-24 over Baltimore for 52 combined points and the Ravens stalled after Lamar Jackson got hurt.  They lost a 35-31 shootout to Josh Allen and the Bills for 66 combined points.

Justin Herbert is one of the best QB's in the NFL and his offensive line will be much healthier heading into the playoffs after the Chargers sat their starters last week.  He is also very mobile so the OL injuries haven't been much of a problem.  The Patriots have a great run defense, but their pass defense is their weakness, particularly their ability to get after opposing QB's.  They rank 25th in the NFL in sacks despite playing so many bad QB's and having big leads in most of their games.

This is a very short total for a game involving the Patriots.  The OVER is 9-2 in Patriots last 11 games overall.  The Patriots and their opponents have combined for at least 45 points in nine of their last 10 games, including 46 or more in eight of their last nine.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* 49ers/Eagles NFC Wild Card No-Brainer on Philadelphia -3.5

The Philadelphia Eagles rested their starters in Week 18 knowing that the No. 2 seed was still available.  Had they won, they would have been the No. 2 seed, but they lost to the Commanders.  It shows the confidence of this team and this coaching staff to know that as long as they are healthy going into the playoffs, they can beat anyone home or away.

The Eagles have gone 11-6 this season with their 'C+ game'.  They have had a bit of a Super Bowl hangover, but they have also just not opened the entire playbook on offense preferring to control games with their defense.  They have a lot more to give, and that playbook will be opened for the playoffs, where the Eagles have thrived in recent seasons.

Jalen Hurts is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home in the playoffs outscoring opponents by a whopping 21 points per game.  Hurts is 31-5 SU as a home favorite in his career, including 13-1 SU in December or later.  Hurts hasn't used his legs much all season to try and stay healthy, but he will be putting it all on the line in the playoffs, and his legs are the key to opening up this offense and maximizing it.

Brock Purdy is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in his career as an underdog, failing to cover the spread by an average of 12.3 points per game.  Purdy will have his hands full against this Philadelphia defense, which profiles similarly to the Seattle Seahawks.  The Eagles can get pressure without blitzing, which was their key to winning the Super Bowl last year, especially shutting down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the finale.

Well, the 49ers just played the Seahawks last week with the NFC West title and No. 1 seed in the NFC on the line.  They lost 13-3 as they couldn't get anything going offensively.  It was an even bigger blowout than that 13-3 final showed as the Seahawks missed two field goals and kicked 4 of them.  The Seahawks outgained the 49ers 361 to 173, or by 188 total yards.  They also had 23 first downs compared to 9 for the 49ers.  I think the Eagles will be similarly dominant.

The Eagles are as healthy as they have been all season right now.  They will get LT Lane Johnson back for the playoffs, and he is key to their success.  Philadelphia is 122-61-1 SU when Lane plays, and 18-29 SU when he doesn't.  The entire 2-deep for this Philadelphia defense is healthy, and that's bad news for the 49ers.  Kyle Shanahan hasn't scored more than 15 points against a Vic Fangio defense in his career as a head coach or coordinator.  He just can't figure it out, and he won't figure it out this weekend.

The worst unit of the entire playoffs is this banged up San Francisco 49ers defense.  They have been terrible without Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, and they have the worst pressure rate in the NFL.  Things have gone from bad to worse.  All three starting LB's were injured against the Seahawks.  Warner's backup Bethune (94 tackles) suffered a season-ending injury, while both Winters (101 tackles) and Gifford (35 tackles) are questionable after not practicing most of the week.  CB Green (59 tackles, 9 PD) is questionable as well.  What a mess this defense is, and the Eagles will be able to do whatever they want against them.

Injuries are a problem for the 49ers on offense as well.  LT Trent Williams and WR Ricky Pearsall both missed the Seattle game.  Pearsall is very important because he is on the one reliable target that can get open consistently, but he re-aggravated his PCL injury and is doubtful.  Williams is a true game-time decision with a hamstring injury, and he won't be able to do the things he normally would as far as blocking downfield even if he does play.  Purdy has some of the worst weapons in the NFL right now with Jennings and Robinson and his top two receivers.   They couldn't get separation against Seattle, and they won't be able to get separation against these star CB's of the Eagles in DeJean and Mitchell.  The Eagles rank 8th allowing 189.8 passing yards per game and 1st in completion percentage at 56.8%.

The Eagles played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL this season after winning the Super Bowl.  They had to face the Chiefs, Rams, Packers Lions, Bears, Chargers and Bills.  They held the Bills scoreless through 3 quarters on the road in the final game they tried to win in Week 17.  Nobody shuts down Buffalo at home, and they did just that.  The 49ers only faced five playoff teams all season.  They had a very soft schedule down the stretch that had them overvalued going into that Week 18 game against Seattle, and continues to have them overvalued in Wild Card weekend.  This game has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Eagles Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bills/Jaguars OVER 50.5

The Jaguars are 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall with a +153 point differential.  They rank 1st in scoring at 33.6 points per game during this span.  The Jaguars are 7-3 OVER in their last 10 games overall going for 51 or more combined points in six of those 10 games.  This total of 50.5 is too short for a game involving the Jaguars right now.

Injuries are a big problem for the Bills defensively.  They are without DT Ed Oliver, DE Jordan Phillips, LB Terrell Bernard (65 tackles) and CB Maxwell Hairston (18 tackles, 2 INT).  The Jaguars are loaded with weapons since the trade for WR Jakobi Myers and the return to health of TE Brenton Strange.  Parker Washington has benefited the most with a breakout.  And Lawrence is playing at an MVP level under head coach Liam Coen.  He has accounted for 19 touchdowns and only 1 INT in his last six games.

The Jaguars will hang a big number on this soft, beat up Bills defense, and the Bills will have to go to a more pass-happy approach to try and keep up.  That will greatly benefit the OVER.  The Bills are potent themselves offensively ranking 5th in scoring offense at 28.3 points per game, 4th in total offense at 376.3 yards per game and 4th at 6.1 yards per play.  They also know they won't be able to run it on Jacksonville's defense, which ranks 1st in the NFL against the run.  So they will be smart about it and keep the ball in Josh Allen's hands for four quarters.  This has shootout written all over it, especially with temps in the 60's and winds not being much of a factor.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Bills/Jaguars AFC Wild Card No-Brainer on Jacksonville +1

The Bills are getting too much respect for their playoff experience and what they've done in the past.  This matchup favors the Jaguars everywhere but at QB, but you could make the argument that Trevor Lawrence had the better season.  And with Josh Allen battling a toe injury that required X-Rays at the end of his two most recent games, he's clearly nowhere near 100%.

Buffalo kicker Matt Prater will be limited and didn't practice until late in the week.  Jacksonville has one of the best kickers in the NFL in Cam Little, who made both attempts of 67-plus this season.  He made 30-of-34 (88.2%) of his FG attempts this season including 8-of-10 from 50-plus.  He's an absolute weapon for them.

The Jaguars are 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall with a +153 point differential.  They rank 1st in scoring at 33.6 points per game and 1st in scoring defense at 14.5 points per game during this span.  They did beat some bad teams during this stretch, but they also crushed two playoff teams in the Broncos 34-20 on the road and the Chargers 35-6 at home.  They are quietly playing better than anyone in the NFL heading into the playoffs.

Josh Allen is 7-0 at home in his playoff career, but those seven wins came against 40-year old Philip Rivers, Snoop Huntley, Mac Jones, Mason Rudolph, Skyler Thompson, Bo Nix in his first career playoff start and Lamar Jackson, who is 3-5 in the playoffs.  The Bills are 0-5 on the road in the playoffs under Sean McDermott.  In fact, the Bills are 0-8 on the road in the playoffs over the last 33 years with their last road win coming in 1993.

Both teams have strong offenses, but the difference in this game is the Jaguars have the much superior defense.  That's especially the case against the run.  Teams that can shut down James Cook and make the Bills have to throw the ball have the most success against them.  The Jaguars are equipped to do just that.  They rank 1st in the NFL allowing 85.6 rushing yards per game.  The Bills rank 28th allowing 136.2 rushing yards per game.

Injuries are a big problem for the Bills defensively.  They are without DT Ed Oliver, DE Jordan Phillips, LB Terrell Bernard (65 tackles) and CB Maxwell Hairston (18 tackles, 2 INT).  The Jaguars are loaded with weapons since the trade for WR Jakobi Myers and the return to health of TE Brenton Strange.  Parker Washington has benefited the most with a breakout.  And Lawrence is playing at an MVP level under head coach Liam Coen.  He has accounted for 19 touchdowns and only 1 INT in his last six games.  He also has two previous playoff starts under his belt and is ready for this moment.

The Bills had three of their worst games on the road this season.  They lost 24-14 at Atlanta as 3.5-point favorites, lost 30-13 at Miami as 8-point favorites, lost 23-19 at Houston as 5-point favorites against Davis Mills, and escaped with a 23-20 win as 10.5-point favorites at Cleveland in their final road game of the season.  I'll gladly back the better, hotter, healthier home team as underdogs in this one.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday.

15* Packers/Bears NFC Wild Card ANNIHILATOR on OVER 44.5

The Bears and Packers are both dead nuts OVER teams in their current form.  Both are very healthy on offense with two of the best offenses in the NFL when that's the case.  Both are very banged up on defense, and these are two of the worst defenses in the playoffs in their current state.

The books have adjusted this total down too much due to the weather report from an opener of 47.5 all the way down to 44.5 as of this writing.  The value is there to back the OVER, and I don't think the weather is going to be as bad as originally reported.  Temps will be in the 30's with 10-15 MPH sustained winds, and the wind direction is from goalpost to goalpost so it will actually favor offenses when they are downwind.  I expect both offenses to take advantage of that and be more pass-happy when they are with the wind.

The Packers felt they could trade away run-stuffer Frank Clark in the trade for Micah Parsons because they had an elite run-stuffer in DT Devonte Wyatt already.  But Wyatt is on season-ending IR and won't be back for the playoffs, and their run defense has been dreadful without him.  Their defense really took a turn for the worse when Micah Parsons tore his ACL in a Week 15 loss at Denver.

The Packers have allowed an average of 28.3 points per game and 391.5 yards per game in their last four games since losing Parsons.  Their run D was exposed when they allowed 307 rushing yards to the Ravens in Week 17.  The Bears want to run the football, and they will be able to against this patch work Green Bay defense.  NB Javon Bullard, LB Nick Niemann and DT Warren Brinson are all questionable, and they are thin in the secondary with CB's Hobbs, Melton and Hadden all on IR.

Chicago's defense has been torched the last three weeks for 384 yards against the Packers, 496 yards against the 49ers and 433 yards to the Lions.  They can't stop the run, either, allowing 192 rushing yards to the Packers and 200 to the 49ers.  They rank 29th in total defense at 361.8 yards per game, 29th at 6.2 yards per play and 29th at 5.0 yards per carry allowed.  They will be missing NB CJ Gardner-Johnson (66 tackles, 3 sacks, 2 INT), CB Kyler Gordon and a pair of backups in LB Ogbongbemiga and DE Shoyinka.

The Packers have an elite offense when they are as healthy as they are right now.  Jordan Love is back from a concussion and has lit up opposing defenses in the playoffs in the past.  Love has a 23-to-6 TD/INT ratio on the season.  He has his top 4 weapons at receiver all healthy in Watson, Doubs, Reed and Golden.  RB Jacobs says he is as healthy as he has been all season and is in line for a monster game against this poor Chicago run D.

The Bears have been potent offensively all season ranking 9th in scoring offense at 25.9 points per game, 6th in total offense at 369.5 yards per game and 9th at 5.8 yards per play.  They rank 3rd in rushing at 144.5 yards per game, and the two-headed monster of Swift and Monangai are in line for big games against this soft Green Bay Run D.  And that's why I'm not concerned about any weather because both teams will be able to move the ball on the ground at will.

Reinforcements are on the way for the Bears on offense this week with WR Rome Odunze (44 receptions, 661 yards, 6 TD) making his return from a 5-game absence.  The Bears have been without Luther Burden for a few games down the stretch, but he's healthy and ready to go now too.  The Bears are fully healthy on offense for the first time in a long time, and dangerous when that's the case.

The first meeting this season saw the Packers win 28-21 for 49 combined points in Green Bay.  Both teams were a lot healthier on defense than they are now for that first meeting.  Both teams were hampered with injuries in the 2nd meeting, a 22-16 (OT) win by the Bears for just 38 combined points.  Jordan Love went out early for the Packers and so did Josh Jacobs.  That left Malik Willis and a handicapped Green Bay offense.

Without Love, the Packers really struggled in the red zone going 0-for-5 scoring touchdowns setting for 3 field goals and a couple turnovers.  The Bears didn't have Odunze OR Burden for that game and were extremely handicapped as a result without their usual weapons.  They were held to 6 points until late in the game as a result before exploding at the end.  Despite the injuries, both teams moved the ball fine as the Packers had 384 total yards and the Bears had 400 total yards.  So it was actually a very misleading final that should have been higher-scoring.

Given the health of both offenses compared to the health and poor play of both defenses, this total of 44.5 is too short.  I also like the fact that these are two offensive-minded head coaches in Johnson and LaFleur, and they will empty out the playbook with this being the playoffs.  Whichever team is trailing will always be able to make a comeback and push the tempo if necessary.  And both offenses should be very efficient in the red zone being able to run the ball on these soft run D's.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Rams/Panthers NFC Wild Card No-Brainer on Los Angeles -10

The Los Angeles Rams are the most complete team in the NFL.  They have the best offense in the NFL ranking 1st in scoring offense at 30.5 points per game, 1st in total offense at 394.6 yards per game and 2nd at 6.3 yards per play.  The Rams rank 10th in scoring defense at 20.4 points per game and 14th at 5.4 yards per play allowed.

The Carolina Panthers are the worst team in the playoffs, getting in with an 8-9 record by winning the tiebreaker in a 3-way tie with the Bucs and Falcons for 1st place in the NFC South.  The Panthers rank 27th in scoring offense at 18.3 points per game, 27th in total offense at 295.6 yards per game and 28th at 5.1 yards per play.  They have a mediocre defense at best ranking 19th allowing 5.6 yards per play.

I like the fact that the Rams went for it in Week 18 knowing that they needed a win to get to play the Panthers in the first round.  That's a big step down in class from the Eagles, who they would have had to face had they lost in Week 18.  They are in playoff mode, and now reinforcements are on the way in time for the playoffs.

WR Davante Adams (60 receptions, 789 yards, 14 TD) led the NFL in TD receptions despite missing the last three games.  The Rams were extra cautious with him and he was pissed off to not be playing down the stretch.  He will be extra motivated now in his return, and he will make a big impact on this offense.  Defensively, the Rams get back CB Quentin Lake (61 tackles, 1 INT, 10 PD) after he missed six games this season.  They are near full strength heading into the playoffs and one of the healthiest teams in the league.

The Panthers have a -69 point differential on the season.  That is the 3rd-worst mark in NFL history for a team that won its division.  They were blown out on the regular losing by 16 to the Jaguars, by 29 to the Patriots, by 31 to the Bills, by 10 to the Saints, by 11 to the 49ers and by 17 to the Seahawks.  Six of their nine losses came by double-digits.

The Rams have the 2nd-best point differential (+172) in the NFL trailing only the Seahawks.  They went 12-5 this season and all five losses were coin flip games.  Seven of their 12 wins came by 14 points or more, so they blew teams out on the regular.  And this game has blowout written all over it Saturday.

Yes, the Panthers upset the Rams 31-28 as 9.5-point home dogs on November 30th earlier this season.  But that was one of the coin flip games the Rams lost, and it was one of the most misleading final scores of the season.  The Rams were -3 in turnovers and all three were killers.  They had a tipped pass intercepted in the Carolina end zone that took 7 points off the board.  Their very next drive, Stafford threw a Pick 6.  And when they were in FG range driving for the game-winning score, Stafford fumbled to end the game.  That was basically a 17-point swing at minimum in the Panthers' favor on those three turnovers.  That's not going to happen again.

What is repeatable is the Rams moving the ball up and down the field on this Panthers defense both on the ground and through the air.  The Rams rushed for 152 yards and 7.2 per carry on 21 attempts against the Panthers in that first meeting.  They also threw for 227 yards nd 7.6 per attempt.  They held the Panthers to 4.1 yards per attempt on the ground.  Carolina also went 3-for-3 on 4th down conversions in that first meeting, two of which resulted in 30-plus yard TD's. Literally everything went right for the Panthers, and they were still life and death with the Rams.  The cream will rise to the top in the rematch.

The Rams were also fat and happy going into that game against the Panthers in the regular season riding a 6-game winning streak with the last three coming against playoff contenders in the 49ers, Seahawks and Bucs.  I think they were flat in that game.  They won't be flat in the rematch, in fact they will be max motivated for revenge and with this being the playoffs.  Teams to lose to a non-divisional opponent in Week 12 or later and to face them again in the playoffs are 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS covering the spread by an average of 7.2 points per game.

Sean McVay is 34-10 SU & 26-18 ATS as a road favorite with the Rams, including 27-6 SU and 19-4 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or more, and 19-2 SU & 12-9 ATS as a road favorite of more than 4 points.  McVay is also 18-11-2 ATS in road games in the Eastern time zone.  The Rams will mount a big lead early and be able to sustain it with their ground attack.  Bryce Young won't be able to make the plays to keep it close.  QB's making their first career playoff start like Young against a QB who has playoff experience are 20-39-1 ATS since 2002.  Bet the Rams Saturday.

20* Ravens/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Baltimore -3

The Baltimore Ravens are the much better team than the Pittsburgh Steelers, period.  Even though they lost the first meeting 27-22 at home a few weeks ago, the Ravens were the better team in that game.  They will be out to prove it this week and win the AFC North, which would be the ultimate revenge.

The Ravens outgained the Steelers 420 to 318, or by 102 total yards, in that 27-22 loss on December 7th.  The refs took a TD off the board, and the Ravens were done in by the refs the entire game to be honest.  They kept driving deep into Pittsburgh territory but got nothing out of it.

Now the Ravens are fully healthy in the rematch and by far the much healthier team coming into this one.  They are coming off a 41-24 road win at Green Bay to keep their hopes alive thanks to 200-plus rushing yards and 4 TD from Derrick Henry.  You can bet they are going to ride Henry into the ground in this game.  They also have extra rest after playing last Saturday night.

Lamar Jackson is back healthy for this one and should be as healthy as he has been in a long time after sitting out last week.  The only starter they are missing on offense is WR Rashod Bateman, but he's replaceable.  They are fully healthy on defense with only CB Marlon Humphrey listed questionable.

The Steelers could not overcome the suspension to DK Metcalf (59 receptions, 850 yards, 6 TD) last week in an ugly 13-6 road loss at Cleveland that cost them clinching the division.  The offense was lost without him and WR Calvin Austin (28 receptions, 317 yards, 2 TD).  Then TE Darnell Washington (31 receptions, 364 yards, 1 TD) got hurt and is now out for the year.  They will get Austin back, but Metcalf is suspended for this game and Washington has been placed on IR.

The Steelers already had one of the worst offenses in the NFL this season even with these guys healthy.  They rank 26th in total offense at 300.4 yards per game.   This is now certainly a Bottom 5 offense in their current start without Metcalf and Washington.  The Steelers also rank 27th in the NFL in total defense at 356.8 yards per game.  They are getting outgained by 56.4 yards per game on the season.  They have been winning with smoke and mirrors all season, and their luck finally runs out this week.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Broncos -7

Note: I also like a 6-point teaser on the Bengals -1/Broncos -1

I anticipated the Chargers would rest their starters when I released the Broncos -7 Sunday night.  I've done my job and got us on a great line as it is now up to Denver -14.5 as of Saturday night.  I would not hedge back.

Jim Harbaugh announced early in the week that he would sit Justin Herbert.  For one of the most injury-ravaged rosters in the NFL, it was the only move for Harbaugh to make.  Wild card seeding doesn't matter much in the AFC and he knew it.

If some starters do play, they likely will only play for a series or two.  Other starters for sure sitting for the Chargers include RB Omarion Hampton, LT Salyer and LB Perryman plus a lot of backups.  The Chargers will start the embattled Trey Lance for this one.  This will be similar to Denver's 38-0 win over Kansas City in Week 18 last year when the Chiefs rested all of their starters.

Denver cannot afford a letdown.  The Broncos are playing for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, meaning home-field advantage and a first-round bye.  If they lose and the Patriots win, they would overtake them.  I expect the Broncos to be 'all in' this week knowing they have a bye on deck to rest up and get ready for the playoffs next week.

What a tough ask for Lance making this start against one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Broncos rank 4th in scoring defense at 19.2 points per game, 3rd in total defense at 282.1 yards per game, 2nd at 4.9 yards per play and 1st in sacks at 4.0 per game.  The Broncos also have the benefit of extra rest heading into this one after beating the Chiefs last Thursday.

"This is a playoff game," Denver head coach Sean Payton said after Wednesday's practice. "I just finished telling our team, 'Now we have to focus on, what are the strengths of Trey (Lance)?'" Bet the Broncos Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Vikings -6.5

I released the Vikings -6.5 Sunday night shortly after the lines came out.  I anticipated the Packers would rest their starters in this game because they were locked into the 7th seed.  The Vikings are currently -10.5 as of this writing Saturday night as they have indeed decided to rest starters, so I have done my job here and will not hedge.

The Packers have two banged up QB's in Jordan Love and Malik Willis, so it was pretty easy to anticipate they would rest those two and start Clayton Tune, one of the worst 3rd-string QB's in the NFL let alone backups.  Tune has completed 15-of-27 passes with 3 INT and no touchdowns while averaging 2.9 yards per attempt and taking 8 sacks.  He has a 21.3 QB rating.

The Vikings got good news when JJ McCarthy was upgraded to starter this week.  That's big because he's a big upgrade over backup Max Brosmer.  The Vikings have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall to get to 8-8 on the season.  I love backing teams who are going for a winning record in their final game of the season because it means so much to them to finish with a winning mark rather than a losing record.

The Vikings are really balling out on defense under coordinator Brian Flores, and it's a shame they have wasted what is a Top 5 defense in the NFL.  The Vikings have been playing elite defense for five straight weeks.  They held the Seahawks to 219 total yards, shut out the Commanders 31-0 while allowing 206 total yards, gave up just 143 total yards in a win over the Giants and stymied the Lions last week in a 23-10 win while holding them to 231 yards and forcing six turnovers.

What a tough ask for Clayton Tune to go up against this Brian Flores defense this week.  I would be surprised if the Vikings don't score on defense or special teams in this one, but we're not going to need it because McCarthy and company will do enough on offense to get us the cover.  The Packers couldn't care less about this game, while it's the 'Super Bowl' for the Vikings to finish with a winning record.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

15* NFC Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Saints/Falcons OVER 43.5

The Saints are going more pass-happy trying to win Tyler Shough rookie of the year.  They are also going more pass-happy due to necessity down their top two running backs.  This pass-happy approach has led to some more high-scoring games here recently and this Saints offense is thriving under Shough.

The Saints have scored at least 20 points in four consecutive games.  Shough went 22-of-27 passing for 333 yards and 2 TD in leading the Saints to a 34-26 comeback win in Tennessee.  He threw 49 times for 308 yards and a TD in leading the Saints to 29 points against the Jets the previous week.

The Falcons are thriving on offense as well down the stretch with Kirk Cousins.  They put up 29 points and 476 total yards on the Bucs three weeks ago, 26 points and 342 yards on the Cardinals two weeks ago and 27 points and 345 yards on the Rams last week.  The Falcons are very healthy on offense as Cousins is clicking wtith London and Pitts, and Bijan Robinson is putting up monster numbers to close out the season.

But the Falcons have a ton of concerning injuries especially in the secondary and on the defensive line.  They have 5 players in the secondary on IR or out, plus top CB AJ Terrell is questionable.  NT Orhorhoro is questionable, and DE Dorlus is out with injuries suffered last week.

The first meeting between these teams ended 24-10 in favor of the Falcons.  But the Saints missed two FG's and scored a total of 3 points on two trips to the Atlanta 1-yard line.  They basically left 17 points off the board in that game.  I suspect they won't do that again in the rematch.

This is a very low total for a game involving both teams teams right now, especially the Falcons.  The Falcons are 7-2 OVER in their last nine games overall, and they have combined for 44 or more points with their opponents in nine of their last 10 games overall.  That makes for a 9-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this low 43.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Saints +3.5

The New Orleans Saints have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They continue to play hard here down the stretch and would love to go into next season on a 5-game winning streak.  I think we are getting tremendous value on the Saints +3.5 here.

The Saints are going more pass-happy trying to win Tyler Shough rookie of the year.  They are also going more pass-happy due to necessity down their top two running backs.  This pass-happy approach has led to some more high-scoring games here recently and this Saints offense is thriving under Shough.

The Saints have scored at least 20 points in four consecutive games.  Shough went 22-of-27 passing for 333 yards and 2 TD in leading the Saints to a 34-26 comeback win in Tennessee.  He threw 49 times for 308 yards and a TD in leading the Saints to 29 points against the Jets the previous week.

But what makes the Saints underrated is their defense, which ranks 9th in total defense at 305.5 yards per game and 7th at 5.1 yards per play.  Not many would guess the Saints have a Top 10 defense, but that's the case here.

The Saints ran revenge from a 24-10 home loss to the Falcons in a very fluky result.  the Saints missed two FG's and scored a total of 3 points on two trips to the Atlanta 1-yard line.  They basically left 17 points off the board in that game.  I suspect they won't do that again in the rematch.

I think the Falcons played their 'Super Bowl' on Monday Night Football last week upsetting the short-handed Rams 27-24.  They will now be on a short week, and they are 'fat and happy' and not worried about the result of this Week 18 game.  I think the Saints want it more and are the healthier, more motivated team coming into this one.

London, Mooney and Pitts are all battling injuries and questionable to go for the Falcons this week.  The Falcons have a ton of concerning injuries defensively, especially in the secondary and on the defensive line.  They have 5 players in the secondary on IR or out, plus top CB AJ Terrell is questionable.  NT Orhorhoro is questionable, and DE Dorlus is out with injuries suffered last week.

This is a very poor Atlanta defense that has allowed at least 24 points in eight of their last 10 games overall, and they should have allowed 24-plus in that first meeting with the Saints.  I think given all their injuries, the Saints will do whatever they want offensively in this one.

The Saints are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS with Shough as their starting QB.  New Orleans is 18-2 ATS in its last 20 games when going for road revenge, 16-1 ATS in its last 17 revenge games overall, and 9-1 ATS in the 2nd meeting with Atlanta the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Cincinnati Bengals -7

Note: I also like a 6-point teaser on the Bengals -1/Broncos -1

The Cincinnati Bengals are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS since getting Joe Burrow back.  They upset the Ravens 32-14 and took the Bills to the wire in a 39-34 loss on the road.  After falling flat in the rematch with the Ravens at home, the Bengals have been unstoppable the last two weeks.

They beat Miami 45-21 as 3.5-point road favorites behind 407 total yards.  They followed it up with a 37-14 home win over Arizona as 7-point favorites last week with 429 yards.  They called off the dogs late in both games.  They won't be calling off the dogs against division rival Cleveland this week, and I fully expect them to finish strong.

The Browns played their 'Super Bowl' last week in upsetting the Steelers 13-6 at home.  That was a Steelers team missing several key starters including both starting WR's in DK Metcalf and Calvin Austin.  It's easy to see how they held the Steelers in check.  Their task gets much more difficult this week against the Bengals.

While the Bengals are very healthy with Joe Burrow, Chase, Higgins and Brown all ready to go on offense plus an ever-improving defense that is pretty healthy, the Browns have too many injuries to be competitive this week.  The Bengals are fully healthy on offense and only missing a DE starter on defense.

Rookie TE Harold Fannin Jr. has been Cleveland's best weapon and scored their lone TD against the Steelers last week.  Once he departed with a groin injury, the Browns couldn't do anything on offense.  They are also without leading rusher RB Quinshon Judkins and TE David Njoku, plus four starters are out on the offensive line.  Shedeur Sanders will not be able to keep up with Burrow and company.

Defensive Rookie of the Year favorite LB Carson Schwesinger suffered a season-ending injury last week against the Steelers.  This defense hasn't been as good since losing DT Maliek Collins to IR.  They had the best run defense in the NFL with him in the lineup, and they've been one of the worst run defenses in the NFL without him since.

The Browns are 1-4 SU in their last five games despite playing four of those five games at home.  In their lone road game during this stretch, they lost 31-3 at Chicago while being held to just 192 total yards.  This game will play out similarly with the Browns getting burried by Burrow and this high-octane Cincinnati offense.  Cincinnati is 12-0 ATS in the 2nd meeting with Cleveland over the last 12 seasons.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Titans/Jaguars OVER 46.5

The Jaguars have one of the best offenses in the NFL since trading for WR Jakobi Myers.  They have scored at least 23 points in nine consecutive games and will hang a big number on this terrible, banged up Tennessee defense this week to lead the way to us cashing this OVER 46.5 ticket.

The Titans have also played in a lot of shootouts here recently due to that poor defense, plus the offense playing their best football of the season.  The Titans are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall going for 60 or more combined points three times.  They have scored at least 24 points in four consecutive games.

But their defense has been awful, allowing 29 points to Cleveland, 37 to San Francisco and 34 to a bad New Orleans offense last week.  The Saints threw for 320 yards on their terrible secondary to get the 34-26 comeback win.

While the Titans are fully healthy on offense which is a big reason for their improvement on that end, they are missing a ton of starters on defense.  That includes LB Arden Key, SS Amani Hooker, FS Xavier Woods and four more CB's in L'Jarius Sneed, Jaylyn Aarmour-Davis, Kevin Winston Jr. and Marcus Harris.

Trevor Lawrence is as hot as any QB in the NFL down the stretch and will have a field day against this Titans defense.  Lawrence has accounted for 16 TD and only 1 INT in his last five games.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, light winds and no precipitation in Jacksonville Sunday.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Seahawks/49ers NFC West No-Brainer on OVER 47.5

The San Francisco 49ers are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  This run has coincided with getting Brock Purdy back healthy, and he leads the NFL in QBR (77.6).  Purdy has this San Francisco offense humming with an average of 35.7 points per game during this six-game winning streak.  

He threw 5 TD passes in a 48-27 win at Indianapolis for 75 combined points two weeks ago.  He accounted for 5 more TD's in a 42-38 shootout win over the Bears last week and 80 combined points.  The 49ers are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall going for 58 or more combined points in six of those eight games.  This total of 47.5 is too short for a game involving the 49ers right now.

The 49ers have a mediocre defense without Warner and Bosa.  They have managed to patch it together, but against the elite offenses of the NFL they have given up a lot of points.  In their last three games, they gave up 24 points to a bad Tennessee offense, 27 points to Philip Rivers and a bad Indy offense, and 38 points to Caleb Williams and the Bears last week.  CB Upton Stout suffered a concussion in that game and likely won't be available this week.

What was amazing about the 49ers hanging 42 points and 496 total yards on the Bears last week was that was a Chicago defense that had been playing better and had been as healthy as they had been for basically all season.  The 49ers also did it without two of their best players on offense in TE George Kittle and LT Trent Williams.  Kittle said he'll be back for this game, and Williams is questionable.  Purdy owns the Seahawks, going 6-1 SU in his career against them.

The Seahawks will get their offense going this week.  They put up 27 points on the Panthers on the road last week, and that followed up a 38-37 shootout win over the Rams at home for 75 combined points.  No question the Seahawks have a solid defense, but they did give up 581 total yards to the Rams, who were without Devante Adams in that game.  The 49ers are nearly as explosive as the Rams.  The Seahawks also lost starting SS Coby Bryant (66 tackles, 4 INT) to injury against Carolina and he will be out for this game.

Seattle is fully healthy on offense with the exception of LT Charles Cross, but that won't be an issue against the 49ers, who have the worst pass rush in the NFL since losing Bosa.  The Seahawks get back WR Rashid Shaheed from a concussion suffered in a big game against the Rams.  He had a 31-yard run and a 58-yard punt return TD.  The Seahawks traded for him at the deadline and he is a big playmaker with speed that they need.

A big reason this total was bet down from an opener of 49.5 is because of the forecast, which is calling for rain throughout the game.  But there is supposed to be less than 1/4 of an inch of rain during the game, so I'm not concerned about it at all.  Both offenses are going to get their tonight and whoever is down late is going to keep coming with the NFC West title and No. 1 seed at stake.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Panthers/Bucs NFC South No-Brainer on Tampa Bay -3

It's easy to see there's value on the Bucs -3 in Week 18.  They were 3-point road favorites at Carolina in their first meeting just two weeks ago, and now they are only 3-point home favorites in the rematch.  It's time to 'buy low' on the Bucs this week.

They are 1-7 SU & 0-8 ATS in their last eight games overall so bettors want nothing to do with them.  That's the time you want to back a team when everyone is off of them.  The Bucs have lost four straight coin flip games all by 4 points or fewer.  They outgained three of their four opponents, so they were the better team in the stats but came up on the wrong end of the scoreboard.

What I like about the Bucs is that they are about as healthy as they have been all season right now.  Baker Mayfield gets LT Triston Wirfs back this week after he sat out last week, and this offense is fully healthy and capable of hanging a big number on Carolina.  The Bucs are also pretty healthy on defense and will activate their best pass rusher in Calijah Kancey from IR this week.  They are really only missing a couple guys in the secondary now.

I don't think this young Panthers team is ready for this moment to go on the road and dethrone the Bucs, who have owned this division and come up clutch late in the season year after year.  I think they have one more clutch game in them to keep their hopes alive for winning the NFC South.

Of course, the Falcons could beat the Saints on Sunday and ruin that, but the Bucs know they have to handle their business first on Saturday for it to even matter.  The Panthers have the luxury of knowing they can lose this game and still win the division if Atlanta beat New Orleans as a 3.5-point home favorite on Sunday.  The Bucs are in true 'must win' mode, while the Panthers are now.

The Panthers had a chance to clinch the division last week and fell flat on their faces in a 27-10 home loss to the Seahawks.  Their offense was held to 139 total yards by Seattle in a game that was every bit as big of a blowout as the final score showed even though it was close for a while.  This Carolina offense has averaged just 231.7 yards per game in its last three games and is broken.

The Panthers won't get back RG Robert Hunt this week, one of their best offensive linemen.  They also lost starting TE Ja'Tavion Sanders to the IR with an injury suffered last week.  Defensively, they will be without two starting LB's in Claudin Cherelus and Trevin Wallace, plus they have some cluster injuries in the secondary.  DE Tershawn Wharton is questionable as well.

Baker Mayfield is 5-1 SU in his career against the Panthers including 3-0 SU at home.  Bryce Young is 4-9 SU when facing an opponent the Panthers beat in their previous meeting.  Mayfield and the Bucs will be ready for the moment today while Young and the Panthers will not.  Bet the Bucs Saturday.

20* Rams/Falcons ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 49.5

The Los Angeles Rams just put up 581 total yards in a 38-37 loss at Seattle last week in their first game without star WR Devante Adams.  If that's not the case for Matthew Stafford to win MVP I don't know what is.  This is the best offense in the NFL and it will be on display again tonight in perfect conditions in the dome in Atlanta.  

This total of 49.5 is too short for a game involving the Rams, who have a suspect defense.  The Rams are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall combining for 59 points with Carolina, 62 with Arizona, 75 with Detroit and 75 with Seattle.

The Rams will get their points, and I think the Falcons can keep up in a shootout.  They put up 29 points and 476 total yards on the Bucs two weeks ago and 26 points on the Cardinals last week.  Kirk Cousins and Kyle Pitts are developing a great chemistry, and WR Drake London just returned from injury last week and should have a big game this week.

I also like the fact that both teams are great at running the football with two-headed monsters at RB, which makes things easier when they get into the red zone to put up touchdowns instead of field goals.  The Falcons have rushed for at least 111 yards in seven consecutive games, and the Rams have rushed for at least 119 yards in seven of their last eight games.

Both defenses have struggled against the run with the Falcons ranking 26th allowing 128.2 rushing yards per game and 25th at 4.6 yards per carry allowed.  The Rams allow 4.1 yards per carry and just gave up 171 rushing yards on 25 carries to the Seahawks last week.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Bears/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 51

The San Francisco 49ers are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with all five wins coming by 11 points or more and by an average of 16.4 points per game.  This run has coincided with getting Brock Purdy back healthy, and he leads the NFL in QBR (75.8).

Purdy has this San Francisco offense humming with an average of 34.4 points per game during this five-game winning streak.  He just threw 5 TD passes in a 48-27 win at Indianapolis.  He should stay hot against a Chicago defense that ranks 19th in scoring at 23.6 points per game, 25th in total defense at 348.1 yards per game and 28th at 6.1 yards per play.

The 49ers are going to hang a big number on the Bears, and Caleb Williams and company will be forced to keep up in a shootout.  I think the Bears are capable with the offensive-minded Ben Johnson calling the shots.  Chicago ranks 5th in total offense at 371.5 yards per game with tremendous balance.  The Bears get back Luther Burden from injury and will have their full compliment of weapons this week outside Rome Odunze.  They have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.

The 49ers have a mediocre defense without Warner and Bosa.  They have managed to patch it together, but against the elite offenses of the NFL they have given up a lot of points.  They just gave up 27 points to Philip Rivers and the Colts last week after allowing 24 points to the lowly Titans the previous week.  

The 49ers are 5-2 OVER in their last seven games overall going for 58 or more combined points in five of those seven games.  This is actually a very low total for this game that features two of the top offenses in the NFL up against two of the weaker defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday night.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Las Vegas Raiders ML +102

Note: I also like a 6-point teaser with the Raiders +7.5 or better paired with the Bengals -1 and/or the Titans +7.5 or better.

The loser of this game will likely get the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft.  I trust Pete Carroll to coach this game harder than interim Mike Kafka, because it's not in Carroll's nature to lose games on purpose.  It's like like it's a killer QB draft class, either.

The Giants have looked like they've been tanking for weeks.  They are 0-9 SU in their last nine games overall and just had 141 total yards in their loss to the Vikings last week.  They don't want to get Jaxson Dart hurt again and haven't been using the entire playbook as a result.

Of course, it's difficult for Dart to have any success being this banged up New York offensive line that will be without three starters this week as the Giants just put LT Andrew Thomas, C John Michael Schmitz and RG Evan Neal on IR.  They also just ruled out one of their best weapons in Theo Johnson, a sign that they are tanking.

The Raiders have at least been competitive here down the stretch.  That was evident last week in a 23-21 road loss to the Texans as 14-point dogs in a game they should have won.  They outgained the Texans 315 to 270, or by 45 total yards.

The Raiders have by far the better defense in this game.  Las Vegas ranks 15th in total defense at 326.1 yards per game and 12th at 5.3 yards per play.  New York ranks 29th in total defense at 373 yards per game and 29th at 6.1 yards per play.

Rookie RB Ashton Jeanty had 188 yards from scrimmage and 2 TD last week against that vaunted Houston defense that is the best in the NFL.  He should feast on this Giants defense whose biggest weakness is against the run.  They rank 31st allowing 150.9 rushing yards per game and dead last (32nd) allowing 5.5 yards per carry.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Raiders on the Money Line Sunday.

15* Giants/Raiders Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 41.5

The loser of this game has the inside track to the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft.  Both teams have decided to sit some guys that makes it seem like they may be doing everything they can to lose this game.  And the best way to lose a game is to not score points, which is why I really like the UNDER in this game Sunday.

The Giants managed just 141 total yards against the Vikings last week in a game it looked like they were tanking as Jaxson Dart attempted only 13 passes despite trailing all game.  They are doing everything they can to keep Dart healthy, which has really limited the playbook.

Of course, it's difficult for Dart to have any success being this banged up New York offensive line that will be without three starters this week as the Giants just put LT Andrew Thomas, C John Michael Schmitz and RG Evan Neal on IR.  They also just ruled out one of their best weapons in Theo Johnson, a sign that they are tanking.

The Raiders have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL and aren't brining back LT Miller, G Powers-Johnson or G Meredith from IR when at least two of them could have returned, especially Miller.  They also just decided to shut down their best weapon in TE Brock Bowers, placing him on IR earlier this week, a sign they are tanking and doing everything to not score.

Las Vegas ranks 15th in total defense at 326.1 yards per game and 12th at 5.3 yards per play.  The strength of the Raiders is their defensive line, and they will wreak havoc on this banged up New York offensive line.  The same can be said for the Giants, who have elite pass rushers to get after Geno Smith.

The Raiders and their opponents have combined for 41 or fewer points in eight of their 15 games this season.  They rank dead last (32nd) in total offense at 248.9 yards per game.  They are a dead nuts UNDER team, and given the tanking nature of both teams with all the players they are missing on offense, I just can't see a shootout.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bucs/Dolphins OVER 46.5

This is the first time that Baker Mayfield has had his full compliment of weapons at RB, WR and TE.  Only LT Tristan Wirfs is out on offense.  This version of the Bucs offense is one of the best in the NFL and the one that was lighting up teams early on in the season.  They should get their swagger back this week.

Mayfield and company should hang a big number on this Miami defense that just allowed 45 points to the Bengals last week the game after getting eliminated from the playoffs.  They let go of the rope, and they have no reason to try and grab back onto it.  They will be without three of their best defenders in FS Minkah Fitzpatrick, DT Benito Jones and his backup in DT Jordan Phillips.  The Dolphins are very thin on the defensive line and in the secondary.

Rookie Quinn Ewers actually played well outside of his 2 INT against in the 45-21 home loss to the Bengals that saw 66 combined points last week.  The Dolphins had 389 total yards in that game, including 260 passing from Ewers completing 20-of-30 attempts.  This Tampa Bay defense can be had as it ranks 27th in the NFL allowing 6.0 yards per play this season.

The forecast looks great for another shootout in Miami with temps approaching 80, no wind and no rain.  I expect the Bucs to get in the 30's and the Dolphins to get in the 20's in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Bengals -7

Note: I love the Bengals -1 in a 6-point teaser.  My favorite pairings with them are the Raiders +7.5 or better and Titans +7.5 or better.

The Arizona Cardinals are 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall losing five times by 7 points or more and four times by 19 points or more.  They are getting blown out on the regular, and they are better off at this point losing games to try and get the best draft pick possible.  Given all the guys they are sitting due to injury here down the stretch, it appears they are doing just that.

The Cardinals have one of the worst defenses in the NFL right now.  They have allowed 40 or more points in four of their last seven games.  They are running out of healthy bodies on defense with 10 guys either on IR or out and most of them starters.  They have another four questionable.  Their entire projected starting secondary is either out or questionable.

That's bad news for them going up against a Cincinnati offense that is one of the top units in the NFL in their current form.  The Bengals are fully healthy on offense basically for the first time all season.  We saw what that led to last week in a 45-21 road win at Miami.  Joe Burrow threw 4 TD passes in the win and looks like his old self again.  Burrow also led the Bengals to 34 points against the Bills three weeks ago and 32 points against the Ravens four weeks ago.  This offense is explosive, and now they face perhaps the worst defense they will have faced all season in the Cardinals, who rank 29th in scoring defense at 27.6 points per game.

The Cardinals are also in trouble on offense due to an offensive line that is basically missing four starters now.  C Froholdt is questionable or it will be five.  That gives Jacoby Brissett little chance of being able to completely keep up with the Bengals in a shootout, because the Bengals are going to hang a big number on them no matter what.  The Cardinals have averaged a modest 20.1 points per game during their current 7-game losing streak.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Saints/Titans OVER 39.5

This game features two of the most exciting rookie QB's in the league in Cam Ward of the Titans and Tyler Shough of the Saints.  I think both rookies will be looking to show out here, especially Shough who is the 2nd choice in Offensive Rookie of the Year odds currently.

Shough has led the Saints to three consecutive victories putting up 24 points on Tampa Bay, 20 on Carolina and 29 on the Jets.  He just threw 49 times for 308 yards last week, a clear sign that QB Kellen Moore is trying to get him the numbers he needs to win Rookie of the Year.  It's also due to injuries to their top two RB's, so the Saints just have to go more pass-happy with a lack of a running game.  A pass-happy game plan will lead to more clock stoppages and more points.

The Titans are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games.  They won a 31-29 thriller in Cleveland for 60 combined points.  They lost a 37-24 shootout to the 49ers for 61 combined points.  And last week they hung 26 points and 376 total yards on the Chiefs.  The running game is clicking, and the Titans are fully healthy on offense right now here down the stretch and it shows.

I like backing OVERS in games between eliminated teams late in the season when I know both offenses are trying.  And that's the case with both of these teams.  I think the offenses are ahead of the defenses at this point in the season too, and this total of 39.5 is too short today as a result.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AFC Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jaguars/Colts OVER 47.5

The Jaguars are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall.  They have gone for 51 or more combined points in six of those eight games.  The only two games they didn't came against two dead nuts under teams in the Chargers and Titans.

Head coach Liam Coen, QB Trevor Lawrence, and new WR Jakobi Myers are all in sync right now and hitting on all cylinders.  In fact, the Jaguars have scored 25 or more points in eight consecutive games while averaging 33.0 points per game in those eight games.

No question the Jaguars are going to stay hot and hang a big number on an Indianapolis defense that just allowed 48 points and 5 passing TD's to Brock Purdy on Monday Night Football.  They also allowed 36 points to the Jaguars three games ago.

I was impressed with Philip Rivers on Monday Night leading the Colts to 27 points in that 48-27 loss to the 49ers that saw 75 combined points.  Rivers threw for 277 yards and 2 TD with one INT in the loss.  The Jaguars did allow 445 total yards to Bo Nix and the Broncos last week, so I think the Colts will have plenty of offensive success to contribute to this total.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Bucs -4.5

The Tampa Bay Bucs are in must-win mode if they want a chance to win the NFC South and make the playoffs.  This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Bucs after going 1-6 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  We'll gladly take advantage and lay the short number here with the Bucs on the road against the hapless Miami Dolphins.

A big reason for the Bucs' struggles has been injuries during this stretch, but they are now as healthy as they have been basically all season going into Week 17.  This is the first time that Baker Mayfield has had his full compliment of weapons at RB, WR and TE.  Only LT Tristan Wirfs is out on offense.

Mayfield and company should hang a big number on this Miami defense that just allowed 45 points to the Bengals last week the game after getting eliminated from the playoffs.  They let go of the rope, and they have no reason to try and grab back onto it.  They will be without three of their best defenders in FS Minkah Fitzpatrick, DT Benito Jones and his backup in DT Jordan Phillips.  The Dolphins are very thin on the defensive line and in the secondary.

The Bucs are fully healthy on defense for the first time in a long time.  The only key player they are missing is CB Zyon McCollum, who has been on IR for weeks.  This version of this defense held the Panthers in check last week to just 23 points and 275 total yards.  They will be good enough to keep rookie QB Quinn Ewers and this Miami offense that lacks weapons in check.  The Dolphins have scored 21 points or fewer in four of their last five games coming in.  

The Bucs have lost three straight games outright to division opponents by 1, 3 and 4 points.  Eight teams have been listed as a favorite since 2009 after losing three straight games against division opponents, and those eight teams went 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS, covering the spread by an average of 15.8 points per game.  The Bucs need it more and they'll go out and get it to keep their playoff hopes alive heading into Week 18.  Bet the Bucs Sunday.

25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cardinals/Bengals OVER 52

The Arizona Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 8-3 OVER in their last 11 games overall.  They are 5-2 OVER in their last seven games, five of which have seen 51 or more combined points, with four of those going for 60 or more combined points.  It took a missed XP and two missed FG for us to not cash OVER 45.5 last week as the Falcons and Cardinals combined for 45 points.

The Cardinals have one of the worst defenses in the NFL right now.  They have allowed 40 or more points in four of their last seven games.  They are running out of healthy bodies on defense with 10 guys either on IR or out and most of them starters.  They have another four questionable.  Their entire projected starting secondary is either out or questionable.

This Arizona offense is forced to play fast to try and keep up in shootouts, and Jacoby Brissett has been doing a good job of it getting the ball to two of the most underrated weapons in the NFL in TE Trey McBride and WR Michael Wilson.  The Cardinals have scored at least 22 points in seven of their last 10 games.  Now WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and WR Xavier Weaver returned from injuries last week to give Brissett more weapons outside.

The Cincinnati Bengals are also a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and terrible defense.  We have seen that offense light up opponents in recent weeks.  The Bengals are coming off a 45-21 win at Miami.  They also got in a 39-34 shootout with Buffalo three weeks ago.  Joe Burrow and this entire offense is fully healthy, so the Bengals are going to put up a big number on this Arizona defense.

It's also say to say this awful Cincinnati defense is going to give up plenty of points to Arizona, too.  The Bengals rank 32nd in scoring defense at 30.5 points per game, 32nd in total defense at 402.8 yards per game and 32nd at 6.6 yards per play.  The Bengals will be without DE Joseph Ossai, and DT B.J. Hill is questionable.  Brissett should have all day to find receivers against this weak Cincinnati pass rush.

It will be great weather in Cincinnati Sunday with temps in the 60's, and the winds won't be too strong plus there is very little chance of precipitation.  This game just screams shootout with the way these two teams are built right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Ravens/Packers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Baltimore +5

This will be a battle of backup QB's with the Ravens going with a healthy Tyler Huntley and the Packers going with a banged up Malik Morris who was limited in practice all week with a shoulder injury.  Jordan Love has been ruled out for this one with a concussion.

I actually think the Ravens have the better QB in Huntley and the better overall roster right now from a healthy standpoint.  They should not be catching this many points on the road as the only thing the Packers have going for them is home-field advantage.

The Ravens also have the motivational advantage.  They are eliminated from playoff contention if they lose this game, so they will be 'all in' for this one.  The Packers were just gifted a spot in the playoffs thanks to an upset loss by the Detroit Lions to the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday.  Now the Packers have a very slim chance to even improve their seeding as they'd need the Bears to lose their final two games while the Packers win their final two games to win the division.  That's pretty unlikely and they know it.

The Ravens are 6-3 SU in their last nine games overall with two losses coming by 5 points or fewer.  This run dates back to Huntley's last start, a 30-16 home win over the Chicago Bears.  Huntley went 17-of-22 passing for 186 yards and a TD while also rushing for 53 yards in the win.  I don't even think he's that big of a downgrade from the current version of Lamar Jackson, who has been playing through injury for weeks.  The Ravens are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL even with the Jackson injury factored in.  They have everyone healthy on offense with the exception of Jackson and all their best players healthy on defense with all 11 starters.

The Packers are coming off consecutive losses to the Broncos 34-26 on the road and the Bears 22-16 on the road.  They needed to go to OT against the Bears last week, so that will make them even more tired coming into this one.  And the injuries are much worse than just Jordan Love.  They are missing arguably their two most important defenders in DT Devonte Wyatt and LB Micah Parsons.  SS Evan Williams is questionable.  

You can run up the middle against the soft part of this Green Bay defense, so expect Derrick Henry to have a big game.  The Ravens have rushed for an average of 192.3 yards per game in their last three games and rank 3rd in the NFL in rushing.  Offensively, C Sean Rhyan, RT Zach Tom and WR Christian Watson are all questionable.  They are already without C Elgton Jenkins to IR.  Baltimore has proven it has one of the best defenses in the NFL since a return to health nine games ago off their bye week.  They have allowed just 17.1 points per game in their last 10 games.  Bet the Ravens Saturday.

20* Broncos/Chiefs AFC West No-Brainer on Denver -12.5

The Broncos got humbled with a home loss to the Jaguars last week.  They outgained the Jaguars 445 to 346, or by 99 yards, so it was a misleading 34-20 defeat.  They must win out to get the No. 1 seed in the AFC now so they have no margin for error.  They certainly won't be taking the division rival Chiefs lightly as a result.

The Chiefs look like they are blatantly tanking right now with all of the starters they are resting due to injury.  It's not even just Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew being out, it's a lot more than that.  The Chiefs will now have to start 3rd-string QB Chris Oladokun.

It looks as if the Chiefs will now be without WR Rashee Rice and WR Tyquan Thornton.  They are also without three of their top four offensive tackles on the O-Line.  Minshew had now chance to be successful last week, and Oladokun has no chance to be successful this week with the offense will be fielding.

The Chiefs lost 26-9 at the Titans last week and it was every bit the blowout that the final score showed.  The Titans outgained the Chiefs 376 to 133, or by 243 total yards.  The Broncos will post a similar beat down of the of the Chiefs not only in the stats, but on the scoreboard as well.  Oladokun is also at a big disadvantage having to prepare to start on a short week with this game being played on Thursday.

The Chiefs are also likely to be without several starters on defense in DT Nadi, CB McDuffie, CB Watson and LB Chenal who were all out last week.  The Broncos have been humming on offense putting up 34 points and 391 yards on the Packers and 445 yards on the Jaguars the last two weeks.  I expect the Broncos to dice up this short-handed Chiefs defense.

The Broncos are very healthy overall including on defense.  This will be a nightmare for Oladokun going up against a Denver defense that ranks 5th in scoring at 19.7 points per game, 4th in total defense at 291.6 yards per game, 2nd in yards per play at 4.9 and 1st in sacks at 4.2 per game.  The books can't set this number high enough as Denver should win this game by 2-plus touchdowns with ease.  

It will be similar to the Week 18 game last year where the Chiefs rested their starters and the Broncos won 38-0.  The Chiefs have incentive to tank to try and build around Mahomes for next year with the best draft pick possible.  With all the guys they are sitting out, it appears at least from a coaching and front office standpoint, they are trying to lose these final games.  The Chiefs will also have no home-field advantage here as almost all their tickets up up for sale and there will likely be more Broncos fans in attendance.  Denver needs this win like blood and will treat it like it.  Bet the Broncos Thursday.

20* Lions/Vikings NFC North No-Brainer on OVER 43

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team with one of the best offenses in the NFL but also one the worst, most banged up defenses in the NFL.  The OVER is 5-0 in Lions last five games overall with 53 or more combined points in all five.  They have combined for 51 or more points in seven of their last eight games overall.  This total of 43 is very low for a game involving Detroit right now.

The Lions rank 2nd in scoring offense at 30.1 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 378.7 yards per game and 2nd at 6.3 yards per play.  Detroit ranks 23rd in scoring defense at 24.9 points per game, 23rd in total defense at 347.4 yards per game and 24th at 5.8 yards per play.

The Lions just allowed 481 total yards to Aaron Rodgers and a suspect Pittsburgh offense last week.  While the Lions are very healthy on offense, their defense is decimated by injuries especially in the secondary.  They are without starting safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, one of their backup safeties in Avonte Madox, and starting CB Terrion Arnold.  They have 10 defenders on IR or out and another four questionable, including three starters.

I think this total has been set too low due to Minnesota going to 3rd-string QB Max Brosmer today.  I think Brosmer hasn't been given a fair shake since his only start came on the road in tough conditions against one of the best defenses in the NFL in the Seattle Seahawks.  Brosmer went 7-of-9 passing taking over to an injured JJ McCarthy last week on the road against the New York Giants to preserve a 16-13 win.

Brosmer is going to look like a completely different QB today at home in perfect conditions in the dome against one of the worst defenses in the NFL, particularly one of the worst secondaries.  I think he is going to ball out today and have a much better game than most anticipate.  He will also be forced to keep up in a shootout because the Lions will get their points even against this solid Minnesota D.  It's a Minnesota D that just allowed 423 total yards to the Cowboys in their last indoor game two weeks ago.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Vikings and Lions.  These teams have actually combined for 50 or more points in seven of their last eight meetings.  This total of 43 is too short today.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* 49ers/Colts ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 45.5

The San Francisco 49ers are a dead nuts OVER team with one of the best offenses in the NFL, but also one of the worst defenses in the NFL at the same time.  With this game being played indoors in perfect conditions in the dome in Indianapolis Monday night, look for a shootout to break out between the 49ers and Colts.

The 49ers are 4-0 since Brock Purdy returned from a toe injury.  They have averaged 31.0 points per game in those four games.  Their offensive line is fully healthy, and they have plenty of weapons for Purdy to get the ball to.

The 49ers should hang another big number on this banged up Indianapolis defense.  The Colts are without their top two corners in Garnder and Ward, so expect Kyle Shanahan to go with a pass-heavy approach to take advantage of their biggest weakness.  That will also favor the OVER.

Philip Rivers came off the coach and nearly upset the Seahawks on the road in wet, windy conditions last week.  Now with a full week of practice, I expect even better things from Rivers and this passing offense this week.  The 49ers are fine letting teams throw the ball as they have one of the worst pressure rates in the NFL due to all they are missing.

In fact, the 49ers rank 21st allowing 5.7 yards per play and 30th allowing 68.7% completions to opposing quarterbacks.  The Colts are pretty healthy on offense right now and have ample weapons for Rivers to be successful with Pittman, Pierce, Downs and Warren all healthy.  Of course, a big game from RB Jonathan Taylor will help ease the pressure.  

Shane Steichen is one of the best play-callers in the game and has gotten the most out of his offenses with little talent at QB his entire time here.  Kyle Shanahan is also an offensive-minded head coach, and he has gotten the most out of Purdy and Mac Jones this season.  Both offenses will be ahead of both defenses tonight in a shootout.  

The 49ers are 7-3-1 OVER in their last 11 games overall with 47 or more combined points in seven of those 11 games.  The Colts and their opponents have combined for at least 46 points in 10 of their last 13 games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta Falcons ML -125

The Atlanta Falcons are coming off a 29-28 road win at Tampa Bay in which they racked up 476 total yards on the Bucs and outgained them by 138 yards.  That was a Thursday game, so this is a mini-bye week for the Falcons and they should come out of it fresh and ready to go.  They also come out of it healthier getting Drake London back in the lineup at WR to give Kirk Cousins a weapon he hasn't had in his time at QB.

The Falcons are poised to hang a big number on Arizona.  The Cardinals have one of the worst defenses in the NFL right now.  They have allowed 40 or more points in four of their last six games.  They are running out of healthy bodies on defense with 10 guys either on IR or out and most of them starters.  They have another two questionable.

It's no wonder the Cardinals are 0-6 SU in their last six games and 1-11 SU in their last 12 games.  They have incentive to keep losing to improve on their draft pick, too, so they aren't rushing anyone back from injury.  They are also down multiple starters on the offensive line including LT Paris Johnson and LG Evan Brown this week.  Jacoby Brissett has his work cut out for him behind this makeshift offensive line.

The Falcons have the much better defense in this matchup.  They are at least an average unit on that side of the ball that gets pressure at one of the top rates in the NFL.  They rank 15th in total defense at 323.6 yards per game and 2nd in sacks at 3.4 per game.  There is almost zero home-field advantage for the Cardinals at this point in the season with nothing to play for.  Bet the Falcons on the Money Line Sunday.

15* AFC Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jaguars/Broncos OVER 46.5

Two thriving offenses square off in perfect scoring conditions for a shootout in Denver Sunday afternoon.  Temps will be in the 60's with 5 MPH winds and no chance of precipitation.  I expect both offenses to continue thriving in this all-important game that could determine the top seed in the AFC.

Trevor Lawrence is playing at another level since getting a reliable #1 receiver in Jakobi Myers.  The Jaguars have now scored at least 25 points in seven consecutive games.  They just hung 48 on the Jets last week behind 6 total TD from Lawrence, which followed up 36 points against the Colts the previous week.  He and Liam Coen are in sync and hitting on all cylinders right now.

Bo Nix has shown he can take his game to the next level when he needs to.  He has one of the best games of his career last week in a 34-26 win over the Packers.  Nix threw for 302 yards and 4 TD against one of the best defenses in the NFL.  He will certainly thrive against this overrated Jacksonville defense that has played a bunch of weak offenses in recent weeks.

In fact, I think both defenses are overrated due to a weak schedule of opposing offenses.  And we've seen some real shootouts in Denver with 65 combined points with the Giants, 68 with the Cowboys and 60 with the Packers in recent weeks.  The Jaguars have certainly tranded OVER on the road combining for 59 points with the Raiders, 65 with the Texans and 51 with the Cardinals in recent weeks.  This total of 46.5 is too short giving how well both offenses are playing.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Falcons/Cardinals OVER 45.5

The Arizona Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 8-2 OVER in their last 10 games overall.  They are 5-1 OVER in their last six games, five of which have seen 51 or more combined points, with four of those going for 60 or more combined points.

The Cardinals have one of the worst defenses in the NFL right now.  They have allowed 40 or more points in four of their last six games.  They are running out of healthy bodies on defense with 10 guys either on IR or out and most of them starters.  They have another two questionable.

This Arizona offense is forced to play fast to try and keep up in shootouts, and Jacoby Brissett has been doing a good job of it getting the ball to two of the most underrated weapons in the NFL in TE Trey McBride and WR Michael Wilson.  The Cardinals have scored at least 22 points in seven of their last nine games.  Now WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and WR Xavier Weaver are expected to return this week to give him even more weapons.

The Falcons are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall going for 46 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  The lone exception was when the Saints got 3 points on two trips to the 1-yard line and missed two more FG's.  Kirk Cousins is proving he still has what it takes, leading the 29-28 comeback in Tampa Bay last week with 476 total yards including 365 passing.

What was amazing was Cousins has been playing without Drake London, who is expected to return this week to make this Atlanta offense that much more potent.  Cousins, Bijan Robinson, London and Pitts should combine to have a monster game against this Arizona defense this week.

It's not like Atlanta is shutting down teams, either, so the Cardinals will get their points.  The Falcons have allowed at least 24 points in seven of their last eight games, including 27 or more six times during this stretch.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 47. or more combined points in five of those six.  This figures to be a shootout in perfect conditions in Arizona this weekend.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFC Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Vikings/Giants OVER 44

The Giants are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 8-1 OVER in their last nine games overall finishing with 44 or more combined points in all nine games, and 47 or more in eight of them.  This total of 44 is too short for a game involving the Giants.

The Giants have allowed an average of 31.5 points per game during their eight-game losing streak.  They have eight defenders on IR or out, plus another three defenders listed as questionable coming into this one.  They cannot stop the run allowing 119 or more rushing yards in every game during their 8-game losing streak.  And they have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL to boot.

But Jaxson Dart and Jameis Winston have kept the offense afloat scoring 20 or more points in eight of their last nine games.  They put up 382 total yards in a 29-21 loss to the Commanders last week.  They are pretty much fully healthy on offense with the exception of the guys they lost early in the season.

JJ McCarthy returned to the lineup two weeks ago and has put together two of the best games of his career.  Not surprisingly, it has come against two NFC East defenses, and he gets another one of the worst defenses in the NFL this week.

McCarthy and the Vikings want to build something here at the end of the season that can carry over into next season and they are motivated to finish strong.  McCarthy threw 3 TD's and led the Vikings to 31 points against Washington in his return two weeks ago, and he came back last week with 3 total TD in a 34-26 road win at Dallas.  He is gaining confidence, and the Giants won't be able to stop it.

Minnesota hasn't exactly been a lockdown defense.  The Vikings have allowed 23 or more points in seven of their last nine games.  They just allowed 423 total yards to the Cowboys last week.  And now injuries are a major concern as they will be without both LB Jonathan Greenard (38 tackles, 3 sacks) and DE Javon Hargrave (45 tackles, 3 sacks) this week after both got hurt against Dallas.  Both offenses will be ahead of both defenses in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Vikings -2.5

JJ McCarthy returned to the lineup two weeks ago and has put together two of the best games of his career.  Not surprisingly, it has come against two NFC East defenses, and he gets another one of the worst defenses in the NFL this week.

McCarthy and the Vikings want to build something here at the end of the season that can carry over into next season and they are motivated to finish strong.  McCarthy threw 3 TD's in a 31-0 win over Washington, and he came back last week with 3 total TD in a 34-26 road win at Dallas.  He is gaining confidence, and the Giants won't be able to stop it.

The Giants have incentive to lose to get a better draft pick and they are playing like it.  The Giants are 0-8 in their last eight games overall with an 18-point loss in New England and an 8-point home loss to Washington in their last two games since Jaxson Dart returned from injury.  The problem isn't Dart and the offense, though, it's this pitiful defense.

The Giants have allowed an average of 31.5 points per game during their eight-game losing streak.  They have eight defenders on IR or out, plus another three defenders listed as questionable coming into this one.  They cannot stop the run allowing 119 or more rushing yards in every game during their 8-game losing streak.  And they have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL to boot.

The best unit on the field should be this Minnesota defense, and I would give Minnesota's offense the advantage as well considering all the weapons McCarthy has to work with.  The Vikings should have no problem winning this game by a FG or more to get the cover.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee Titans +3.5

The Kansas City Chiefs were not only eliminated from the playoffs last year, but they also lost their MVP QB in Patrick Mahomes to a season-ending injury.  They have since lost several other players to injury to will sit out this week, a clear sign the Chiefs don't mind tanking the rest of the way to get the best draft pick possible.

Offensively, the Chiefs will be without Mahomes, WR Rice, WR THornton, LT Simmons, RT Moore, and backup LT Morris.  Gardner Minshew has almost no shot behind this offensive line and lack of weapons this week.  Defensively, the Chiefs will be without DT Nnadi, CB McDuffie and LB Chenal who all suffered injuries last week.  What a mess.

The Titans have no incentive to lose because they have their QB of the future in Cam Ward and they are doing everything possible to get him going in the 2H of the season.  He is really playing well scoring 24 points on the Seahawks, 31 on the Browns and 24 on the 49ers in three of his last four games.  The Titans are very healthy on offense, too.

The Titans have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL led by DE Jeffery Simmons and NT T'Vondre Sweat.  They will have their way with this makeshift KC offensive line, which will help alleviate some of the pressure on their secondary, which is their most banged up unit.  No matter how you slice it, the Titans are better than the Chiefs in their current state, and they should not be catching points at home as a result.  Bet the Titans Sunday.

15* Chargers/Cowboys Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 49.5

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 9-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall behind one of the best offenses in the NFL, but one of the worst defenses.  They have gone for 49 or more combined points in nine of their last 11 games, including 57 or more combined points in eight of those contests.  Dallas home games are averaging 61.6 combined points per game this season.

The Cowboys rank 4th in scoring offense at 29.1 points per game and 1st in total offense at 396.9 yards per game.  The Cowboys are fully healthy on offense with the exception of LT Tyler Guyton.  Dallas ranks 31st in scoring defense at 30.0 points per game and 29th in total defense at 374.9 yards per game.  They are without CB Bland, and both CB Carson and DT Quinnen Williams are questionable.  Williams had to leave the game last week when they allowed 34 points to JJ McCarthy and the Vikings.

This total has been set too low due to the Chargers playing a string of bad offenses but good defenses in the Raiders, Eagles and Chiefs in their last three games.  They are bound to get in a shootout with the Cowboys as Justin Herbert lights up their defense.  He has all of his top weapons healthy for this one and their offensive line will hold up against a Dallas defense that lacks a consistent pass rush.

The Chargers haven't played many elite offenses like the Cowboys this season, so their defensive numbers are a little skewed.  Against some of the better offenses they faced they allowed 38 points to the Colts and 35 to the Jaguars.  If one team gets into the 30's in this game it's going OVER, and it's very likely one team gets into the 30's if not both.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Saints -4.5

The New Orleans Saints believe they have their QB of the future in Tyler Shough.  He is rapidly climbing up the Offensive Rookie of the Year odds with his great play here down the stretch.  And now Shough is primed for his best game yet against what is arguably the worst defense in the NFL in the New York Jets.

The Jets know they don't have their QB of the future on their roster and have incentive to tank.  And with some moves they've made to sit numerous starters out, they are clearly trying to lose games right now.  It has shown by their play on the field in recent weeks, and this is more of a fade of the Jets than anything.

The Jets' 34-10 home loss to Miami two weeks ago looks really bad now when you consider Miami came back the next week and was blown out by Pittsburgh.  Last week, the Jets made Trevor Lawrence look like the best QB in the NFL as he accounted for 6 total touchdowns in a 48-20 loss to the Jaguars.

Giving up 34 points to that weak Miami offense and then 48 to Jacksonville shows just how poorly this defense is playing.  They have gotten much worse since trading away their two best defenders in Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner, and it's really starting to show now that they are injured.  The Jets have eight defenders on IR including three starters in FS Adams, CB Brownlee and CB Thomas.  They have one of the worst CB rooms in the NFL.  They are also without starting LB Mauigoa and backup DE Watts this week.

I haven't even gotten to the offense, which is starting rookie Brady Cook.  If that's not a sign they are tanking I don't know what is because both Fields and Taylor are healthy enough to start.  Cook has been a disaster, completing 57.1% of his passes, averaging 5.4 yards per attempt with a 1-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  He doesn't have much help with WR Garrett Wilson out for the year and TE Mason Taylor out again this week.  This current version of the Jets might be the worst team in the NFL if it's not the Raiders.

The Saints have gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They only lost by 4 at Miami as 5-point dogs, upset the Bucs 24-20 as 7.5-point road dogs and upset the Panthers 20-17 as 2.5-point home dogs.  The Panthers were coming off a bye week, too.  

While I like Shough and his dual-threat ability, it's this Saints defense that is grossly underrated.  The Saints have allowed just 17.8 points per game in their last five games.  They are fully healthy on defense right now too.  I expect the defense to shut down Cook, and Shough to make enough plays with his arm and his legs to lead New Orleans to a win by a TD or more.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

20* Bucs/Panthers NFC South No-Brainer on OVER 45

The Bucs are a dead nuts OVER team in their current state.  Their offense is as healthy as it has been all season with Evans, McMillan, Egbuka, Godwin, Otton and Irving all playing in this game.  They just hung 28 points on the Falcons last week with most of these guys available, but now they will have everyone available this week.

The problem for the Bucs has been defense, where they have allowed an average of 29.3 points per game during their 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS stretch in their last six games.  They allowed 44 points to the Bills, 34 to the Rams, and most shockingly 29 points and 476 total yards to the Falcons and Kirk Cousins last week in their 29-28 defeat.  They do get some guys back from injury this week, but this is a bad, banged up defense.

The Panthers have some injuries of their own on defense that the Bucs can take advantage of.  They will be without DE Tershawn Wharton (36 tackles, 2 sacks) and LB Trevin Wallace (60 tacklers, 2 sacks) this week.  This is a below-average Panthers defense as it is and missing two key starters along the front seven won't help matters.

I think Bryce Young and the Panthers will be forced to keep up in a shootout.  They are fully healthy on offense right now with the exception of one offensive lineman.  Young has some great weapons in Dowdle and Hubbard at RB, plus McMillan, Legette and Coker at WR.  He has proven he can keep up with teams in shootouts just like he did in his last home game, a 31-28 win over the Rams for 59 combined points.  This game will play out similarly.

The Bucs and Panthers combined for 62 and 49 points in their two meetings last season.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 60's, no wind and no precipitation.  Both offenses will have their way with these suspect defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bears +3

Note: I released the Bears +3 Sunday night as soon as the lines came out.  The Packers had a ton of injuries against the Broncos that made this a 25* play at +3.  As of this writing on Friday, the Bears have flipped to the favorites.  I would take the Bears on the Money Line if you purchased this play later in the week.  It's still a 25* play -140 or better.

Few teams are playing as well as the Bears right now since they got healthy on defense.  It was a bit of a fluky start as they were living off turnovers, but that is no longer the case as the Bears are real contenders in their current state.  They proved that by going into Green Bay and taking the Packers to the wire two weeks ago.

The Bears were driving deep in Green Bay territory before throwing an interception in the end zone on 4th and 1 in the final seconds.  They would have gone for 2 and the win had they scored.  That was a very evenly-matched game in Green Bay, but the Bears will have the advantage at home this time around.  They are 5-1 SU at home this season and will have one of the most hostile crowds in franchise history with the NFC North title at stake in this game.

I became a Bears believer when they went into Philadelphia and manhandled the Eagles in a 24-15 victory as 7-point road dogs three weeks ago.  The Bears outgained the Eagles 425 to 317, or by 108 total yards.  What really stood out was they rushed for 281 yards on that Philadelphia defense, which is one of the best in the league.  The Bears had no letdown following that loss to the Packers two weeks ago, handling their business in a dominant 31-3 home win over the Browns last week.  They held the Browns to 192 total yards in the win.

The Bears are fully healthy on defense for the first time all season.  The offense will be without Odunze and Burden, but they were without Odunze last week too.  They have plenty of depth at receiver with Moore, Zaccheaus and Duverney, plus TE's Loveland and Kmet at real weapons.  But what I'm really banking on is the Bears to win the battle at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football and to run wild on the Packers in this one.

The Bears rank 2nd in rushing offense at 152.2 yards per game and 5th at 4.9 yards per carry.  The two-headed monster of Swift and Monangai has been unstoppable, and Caleb Williams has utilized his legs well all season.  The Packers have been good against the run up to this point, but injuries on defense in recent weeks make them very vulnerable moving forward.

It's not just that they lost their best defensive player in Micah Parsons, either.  SS Evan Williams (85 tackles, 3 INT) left the 34-26 loss at Denver last week and hasn't practiced yet this week.  DE Knglsey Enagbare is questionable.  The Packers haven't really recovered since losing their best interior defender in DT Devonte Wyatt.  DE Collin Oliver has been ruled out.  What was a strength of the Packers all season has now turned into a weakness with one of the worst defenses in the NFL in their current state.

The Packers suffered two key injuries in the loss to Denver on offense, too.  WR Christian Watson was hospitalized with a shoulder injury and is highly questionable to play.  RT Zach Tom suffered another injury and is almost certainly out.  RB Josh Jacobs has yet to practice this week and is questionable.  Jacobs, Toms and Williams are more doubtful than questionable after missing practice all week.  

Teams coming off a road game in Denver are 6-17 ATS in the last 23 games, including 0-6 ATS this season.  The travel after playing in the altitude on a short week is not a good spot to be in for Green Bay this week.  The Packers are falling apart at the seams heading into their biggest game of the season.  I think the Bears are finally positioned to dethrone them with their biggest win in years this weekend.  Bet the Bears Saturday.

15* Eagles/Commanders NFC East ANNIHILATOR on Washington +7

The Philadelphia Eagles are getting too much credit for their 31-0 win over the hapless Raiders last week.  They beat a Raiders team with no offense that was playing a backup QB in Kenny Pickett.  It's a Eagles team that was 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their previous three games without outright losses as favorites to the Cowboys, Bears and Chargers.  They were outgained by 108 yards by the Bears and by 134 yards by the Cowboys, too.

The Eagles certainly cannot be 7-point road favorites over the Washington Commanders this week when you consider they are still without two of their best players on RT Lane Johnson and DE Jalen Carter.  Over the last 10 years, the Eagles are 96-41-1 SU when Johnson starts, and 13-26 SU when he doesn't.

Marcus Mariota has been a better QB than Jaden Daniels this season.  Mariota is averaging 7.5 yards per attempt compared to 6.7 per attempt for Daniels.  He is averaging 6.1 yards per carry compared to 4.8 per carry for Daniels.  Time and time again the Commanders are getting disrespected because Mariota is their QB rather than Daniels.  This creates line value we can exploit.

Mariota has been awesome in his last two starts, a 27-26 (OT) home loss to the Broncos, who many believe are the best team in the AFC.  And last week he led the Commanders to a 29-21 road win over the New York Giants.  The team plays hard for him and loves him, and the offense is fully healthy with the exception of TE Ertz and LT Tunsil.  WR McClaurin, WR Samuel and RB Rodriquez are all good to go this week.

The Commanders are also as healthy as they have been in a long time on defense.  They held the Giants to 21 points last week.  DE Drake Jackson returns to bolster a defensive line that could use the help.  And it's not like the Eagles have been explosive on offense at any point this season.  This feels like it's going to be low-scoring, defensive battle so getting 7 points with the home underdog is tremendous value.

That's especially the case when you consider the Commanders always seem to play the Eagles tough.  In fact, five of the last six meetings were decided by one score.  The lone exception was in the playoffs last season when the Eagles blitzed the Commanders on their way to winning the Super Bowl.  So this is Washington's first shot at revenge, and they will put their best foot forward.  The Eagles know in the back of their minds they only need to win one of their final three games to clinch the NFC East, so they aren't playing with much urgency right now.  Philadelphia hasn't won a road game by more than 6 points all season.  Bet the Commanders Saturday.

20* Rams/Seahawks NFC West No-Brainer on UNDER 45.5

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this UNDER 45.5 ticket between the Rams and Seahawks Thursday night.  There will be rain throughout, but the bigger factor is 17 MPH sustained winds with gusts in the 30's.  It's going to be hard for both offenses to throw the football, so this game will be played with a lot of heavy formations and mostly on the ground with a short passing game.

Seattle ranks 2nd in scoring defense at 17.3 points per game, 4th in total defense at 283.4 yards per game and 1st at 4.7 yards per play.  They are also 2nd allowing just 3.8 yards per rush.  In their first meeting this season, the Seahawks held the Rams to 21 points, 249 total yards and 5.0 yards per play.  Nobody has held the Rams down like they did this season, and that was in perfect weather in Los Angeles.

The Rams rank 3rd in scoring defense at 18.6 points per game.  That's why many feel they are the best team in the NFL this season because they have no weaknesses.  But there is a chink in their armor now with WR Devante Adams out for this game with a hamstring injury.  He has 60 receptions for 789 yards and a league-high 14 TD this season.  The Rams are much easier to defend without having to worry about Adams.  Puka Nacua also had to leave the game last week with an injury late but came back in, and he may still be feeling the affects especially on this short week.

It's late in the season and Sam Darnold is regressing again.  The Seahawks managed just 18 points last week against the Colts in similar conditions.  They kicked six field goals and didn't reach the end zone.  In their previous home game, they beat the Vikings 26-0 but that was all defense.  They managed just 219 total yards against the Vikings that week.  

Darnold threw 4 interceptions and led the Seahawks to just 19 points in that first meeting with the Rams.  It saw just 40 combined points, again in perfect weather in Los Angeles.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and I love backing UNDERS in the 2nd meeting in these division games because of it.  The conditions will be much worse for the rematch, and both defenses are well ahead of both offenses right now.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Dolphins/Steelers ESPN No-Brainer on Miami +3.5

The Miami Dolphins are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall to get to 6-7 and back in the conversation of the playoffs at least.  There is something about getting back to .500 on the season that is very motivating, and I think they will be 'all in' tonight to get back to that mark.

The Dolphins have been very impressive beating the Falcons by 24 on the the road, the Bills by 17 at home and the Jets by 24 on the road during this stretch.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL, and their defense is absolutely balling out holding five of their last six opponents to 17 points or fewer.

The offense is lead by a potent rushing attack behind Achane and and Wright.  The Dolphins have rushed for 192.3 yards per game during their current 4-game winning streak.  That makes this a terrible matchup for the Pittsburgh Steelers, whose biggest weakness defensively is stopping the run.

Indeed, the Steelers allowed 249 rushing yards to the Bills and 217 to the Ravens in their last two games coming in.  Now they got the bad news that TJ Watt suffered a punctured lung and is out this week.  Few defensive players are worth a point to the spread, and TJ Watt is one of them.  They are also without CB James Pierre and LT Andrus Peat plus his backup, and RB Jaylen Warren and DE Derrick Harmon is questionable.

I question Pittsburgh's motivation this week.  They are coming off a 27-22 win over their biggest rivals in the Ravens which sets them up to control the tiebreaker in the division.  They can not afford two more losses as long as they beat the Ravens at home in Week 18 and still win the division no matter what.  They aren't playing with the same kind of urgency as the Dolphins are tonight.

I also think this Pittsburgh offense is dreadful, and that's the reason the Steelers shouldn't be laying more than a FG at home tonight.  The Steelers rank 27th in total offense at 284.5 yards per game.  Their passing game is limited to dink and dunk, and their rushing game ranks 29th at 89.2 yards per game.  Mike Tomlin has worked miracle to get this team to 7-6, but they are no better than the 6-7 Dolphins and it will show on the field tonight.  Bet the Dolphins Monday.

20* Vikings/Cowboys NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 47.5

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and terrible defense.  The Cowboys are 9-4 OVER in all games this season with 44 or more combined points in all 13 games, and 49 or more in nine of them.  This total of 47.5 is very low for a game involving the Cowboys, especially at home indoors in perfect scoring conditions.  Dallas' six home games this season have averaged 61.9 combined points.

Dallas ranks 3rd in scoring offense at 29.3 points per game, 1st in total offense at 394.9 yards per game and 6th at 6.2 yards per play.  The Cowboys rank 31st in scoring defense at 29.7 points per game, 29th at 378.6 yards per game and 28th at 6.2 yards per play allowed.  The Cowboys are fully healthy on offense this week with CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson good to go with their only starter out being LT Tyler Guyton, who they have been without for several weeks anyway.

The Vikings won the NFC North last season and as a result have played one of the most difficult schedules in the NFL.  It has been a brutal schedule of opposing defenses that stands out more than anything.  After four straight losses to the Ravens, Bears, Packers and Seahawks, the Vikings finally got a reprieve last week.

The Vikings hung 31 points on the Commanders in JJ McCarthy's best game of his career with 3 TD passes and no picks.  I fully expect McCarthy and company to build off that performance and have another big game against this terrible Cowboys defense that just allowed 44 points to the Lions last week.  The Vikings are fully healthy on offense right now and McCarthy has some of the best weapons in the NFL, so he will be successful.

No question Minnesota has a good defense, but that defense has also benefited from a pretty easy schedule of opposing offenses and playing in some poor weather in recent weeks.  Keep in mind the Vikings have recently allowed 27 points to the Ravens, 26 to the Seahawks, 24 to the Lions, 37 to the Chargers and 28 to the Eagles within their last eight games alone.  The Cowboys will get what they want against the Vikings, who love to play man-to-man coverage, and Dak Prescott kills that coverage.  The Cowboys will get a bunch of explosive plays in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Carolina Panthers -2

I love the spot for the Carolina Panthers this week.  They are coming off a bye week and highly motivated for a victory that would put them in sole possession of 1st place in the NFC South surpassing the Tampa Bay Bucs with a win.  It's also a division game, so they need to secure the division record tiebreaker over the Bucs if they end up tied.

That's why I'm not concerned about them having a letdown following their 31-28 win as 10-point home underdogs over the Los Angeles Rams in the game going into their bye week.  The Panthers didn't have C Cade Mays, CB Jaycee Horn (5 INT) or LB Christian Rozeboom (91 tackles) in that win over the Rams.  All three are expected back this week, and now the Panthers are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL coming out of their bye and arguably THE healthiest.

The spot isn't nearly as good for the Saints.  They are coming off an upset 24-20 win at Tampa Bay as 7.5-point dogs last week.  That's a Bucs team that has now lost five of their last six games with their lone win coming by 3 over the Cardinals at home.  It's a Bucs team that was also missing a lot of key players due to injury and more got hurt throughout the game.  It's a Bucs team that went 2-of-7 on 4th down to pretty much hand over great field position to the Saints time and time again as well.

The Panthers also want revenge from a 17-7 home loss to the Saints on November 9th just a month ago.  That was a clear letdown spot coming off a 16-13 road win over the Packers as 13-point dogs the week prior.  They won't make that same mistake again here, not with what's at stake.  I fully expect them to put their best foot forward for this one.  It will be enough to win by a FG or more and cover this short number on the road.

The Saints have only won three games this season.  In their previous two wins, they are 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS following them losing by 6 as 3.5-point home dogs to the Patriots and by 14 as 1.5-point home favorites against the Falcons.  The Saints are 0-5 SU in their last five games against a team on extended rest, including 0-3 this season losing by 13.3 points per game.  New Orleans is 4-17 SU & 5-16 ATS as a home underdog since 2020, including 0-7 SU in their last seven games as a home dog.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

20* Lions/Rams NFC No-Brainer on OVER 52.5

The Rams rank 4th in scoring offense at 29.2 points per game, 4th in total offense at 373.2 yards per game and 4th at 6.2 yards per play.  Their offense is fully healthy with the exception of RG Rob Havenstein, who they have been without for most of the season anyway.

The Lions are nearly fully healthy on offense right now and showed what they were capable of last week when that's the case by hanging 44 points on the Cowboys.  As long as Jared Goff is indoors, he leads an elite Detroit offense that ranks 1st in scoring offense at 30.3 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 378.7 yards per game and 1st at 6.4 yards per play.

The Rams have a very good defense and will make life a little tougher on Goff than normal, but I still think the Lions will get to at least 24 points in this one.  What I am really counting on is the Rams scoring 30-plus with ease.  While Detroit is pretty healthy on offense, it's their lack of health on defense that has me fading them today.  

The Lions are decimated in the secondary without FS Kerby Joseph and his backup in FS Thomas Harper.  They are down to a 3rd-stringer at FS.  They will also be without SS Brian Branch, who suffered a season-ending Achilles injury last week.  CB Terrion Arnold remains out.  No question Matthew Stafford is going to pick apart this short-handed secondary and hang a big number on the Lions.  It will be similar to last week when the Rams put up 45 points and 530 total yards on the Cardinals.  

The Lions are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall finishing with 51 or more combined points in five of those six games, and 55 or more combined points in four of them.  The Rams have gone OVER the total in each of their last two games going for 59 combined points with Carolina and 62 with Arizona.  The books can't set this total high enough.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.  

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Rams -5

The Los Angeles Rams are the most complete team in the NFL.  They are 10-3 SU & 9-4 ATS this season with their sights set on earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.  

Their three losses were all fluky as they led the Eagles by 19 in the 4th quarter and outgained them by 70 yards on the road.  They fumbled at the goal line going in for the game-winning score against the 49ers and outgained them by 49 yards.  And they were -3 in turnovers in a 3-point loss at Carolina.

The Rams have no weaknesses.  They are 3rd in scoring defense at 17.5 points per game and 6th at 5.1 yards per play allowed.  They are 4th in scoring offense at 29.2 points per game, 4th in total offense at 373.2 yards per game and 4th at 6.2 yards per play.  The are outscoring teams by 11.7 points per game and outgaining them by 1.1 yards per play on the season.

The Rams are also one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.  Their offense is fully healthy with the exception of RG Rob Havenstein, who they have been without for most of the season anyway.  Their defense is fully healthy with the exception of CB Quentin Lake.  CB Darious Williams returns to the lineup this week to help make up for it.

While Detroit is pretty healthy on offense, it's their lack of health on defense that has me fading them today.  The Lions are decimated in the secondary without FS Kerby Joseph and his backup in FS Thomas Harper.  They are down to a 3rd-stringer at FS.  They will also be without SS Brian Branch, who suffered a season-ending Achilles injury last week.  CB Terrion Arnold remains out.  No question Matthew Stafford is going to pick apart this short-handed secondary and hang a big number on the Lions, and I don't think Goff and company are capable of matching them score for score.  

No question Stafford, McVay and company have had this game circled.  They lost 26-20 (OT) at Detroit last year and 24-23 at Detroit in the playoffs two seasons ago.  They finally get the Lions at home this time around for the first time since 2021, which resulted in a 28-19 home win for the Rams in the first meeting between Stafford and Goff since the trade.  The Rams are going to want this one more to wreck Detroit's season.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Las Vegas Raiders +13

The Eagles are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL and should not be favored by double-digits over the Raiders at home.  The Eagles have a broken offense that is averaging 309.4 yards per game, and a mediocre defense that allows 341.6 yards per game.  They are getting outgained by 32.2 yards per game.  That mediocre defense got exposed in their last home game two weeks ago allowing 425 total yards including 281 rushing in a 24-15 loss to the Bears as 7-point favorites.

A big problem for the Eagles right now is they are missing their best player in the trenches on both sides of the football.  RT Lane Johnson remains out, and now DE Jalen Carter is out which was announced this week.  Over the last 10 years, the Eagles are 96-41-1 SU when Johnson starts, and 12-26 SU when he doesn't.  It's also a terrible spot for the Eagles off a short week and off an OT loss in Los Angeles on Monday.  The fans are fed up with them after going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games, and don't be surprised to hear the boo birds all game, which would make this almost a negative home-field advantage for the Eagles.

I think the Raiders will get a spark by starting Kenny Pickett instead of Geno Smith this week.  Pickett is a former Eagle that will relish this opportunity to go against his former team.  Smith is washed up and having the worst season of his career, so it can only be an upgrade.  I was impressed with Pickett in leading the Raiders to 10 points in the 4th quarter once he took over for an injured Smith.  He went 8-of-11 passing for 97 yards and a TD in that 4th quarter against Denver's elite defense.  His mobility makes him much tougher to defend than the statue Smith.

The Raiders have an underrated defense that ranks 16th in total defense at 325.8 yards per game and 11th at 5.3 yards per play allowed.  They are 5th in the NFL allowing just 3.9 yards per rush, so their biggest strength is stopping the run.  The Eagles rank 22nd at 4.1 yards per carry on offense.  That's big here because it is supposed to be very windy in Philadelphia today so this game will largely be played on the ground.  The Raiders will be able to hold up, and with scoring suppressed due to the weather conditions, getting 13 points here with Las Vegas is too much.  Bet the Raiders Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Commanders/Giants OVER 46

These are two of the worst defenses in the NFL especially in the 2H of the season.  The Giants rank 30th in scoring defense at 28.2 points per game, 31st in total defense at 385.8 yards per game and 29th at 6.3 yards per play allowed.  The Commanders rank 28th in scoring defense at 27.2 points per game, 30th at 382.5 yards per game and 31st at 6.4 yards per play.

This Washington defense has now allowed at least 27 points in six of its last seven games overall.  They even allowed 31 points and 3 TD passes to JJ McCarthy and the Vikings stagnant offense last week.  Jaxson Dart and this Giants offense will hang a big number on them today, and they have scored at least 20 points in seven of their last eight games overall so offense hasn't been the issue.  Interim head coach Mike Kafka is the offensive coordinator so they have been all offense and no defense since he took over.

But this Giants defense has been pitiful, allowing 33 or more points in five of their last seven games overall and 24 or more in all seven.  Injuries are a problem without LB Thibodeaux and DE Nunez-Roches again today.  Marcus Mariota has actually been better than Jayden Daniels this season averaging 7.2 yards per pass attempt and 6.5 per rush compared to 6.7 per pass attempt and 4.8 per rush for Daniels.  He will be without Zach Ertz, but the rest of his offense is healthy as he will have his top three receivers for basically the first time all season in McLaurin, Samuel and Brown.

I like backing OVERS between two teams who are out of playoff contention.  It tends to be a more relaxed game with offense over defense.  The Giants are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 47 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Giants right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Browns/Bears OVER 39.5

This total of 39.5 is too low for a game involving the Bears, a dead nuts OVER team with a great offense and terrible defense.  The Bears and their opponents have gone for 44 or more combined points in 10 of their 13 games this season.  They have gone for 39 or more combined points in 12 of their 13 games.

The Bears rank 8th in scoring offense at 25.7 points per game, 5th in total offense at 369.7 yards per game and 12th at 5.7 yards per play.  They just put up 425 total yards on the Eagles two weeks ago, and the Eagles have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They deserved 28 points against the Packers last week but were intercepted in the end zone on the final play.  The Bears rank 27th in total defense at 357.3 yards per game and 30th at 6.3 yards per play.  It's a very banged up Chicago defense which is a big reason for their struggles.

Shedeur Sanders is giving this Cleveland offense some life with more of a downfield passing game to stretch opposing defenses.  Sanders threw for 364 yards and 3 TD in a 31-29 loss to the Titans last week.  He did everything in his power to win the game, but the defense let him down.  They allowed 184 rushing yards to the Titans, and the Bears are one of the best running teams in the NFL and will have a ton of success on the ground in this one.

The Browns have notoriously been much worse defensively on the road than they have been at home, too.  That has been the case again this season as the Browns are allowing 27.8 points per game on the road.  I think Chicago can get to 27 in this one to lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.  With the poor weather, don't be surprised if there is a defensive or special teams TD in this one as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Eagles/Chargers ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles +3

The Chargers came out of their much-needed bye week with a dominant 31-14 home win over the Raiders as 10-point favorites.  They are now one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.  Yes, Justin Herbert will be playing with a hand injury, but it's on his non-throwing hand and we've seen Aaron Rodgers be just fine with basically the same injury.  The offensive line has some injuries, but these backups have had a lot of playing time and are starting to gel now.

While I like this Chargers offense with Herbert and some of the best weapons he's ever had plus RB Omarian Hampton returning from IR this week, it's the Chargers defense that is leading this team.  They rank 3rd in total defense at 275.2 yards per game and are showing what they are capable of when fully healthy on that side of the ball.

The Chargers have been dominant at home this season from a statistical perspective.  They are averaging 371.8 yards per game at home and allowing just 266 yards per game at home, outgaining opponents by 105.8 yards per game.  It's no longer a lackluster home-field advantage like it used to be.  Fans are excited about the direction Jim Harbaugh has this franchise heading.

The Eagles are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL and should not be favored on the road here.  The Eagles have a broken offense that is averaging 304.8 yards per game, and a mediocre defense that allows 347.2 yards per game.  They are getting outgained by 42.4 yards per game.  That mediocre defense got exposed last week in allowing 425 total yards including 281 rushing in a 24-15 home loss to the Bears as 7-point favorites.

A big problem for the Eagles right now is they are missing their best player in the trenches on both sides of the football.  RT Lane Johnson remains out, and now DE Jalen Carter is out which was announced this week.  Over the last 10 years, the Eagles are 96-41-1 SU when Johnson starts, and 12-25 SU when he doesn't.

Jalen Hurts is actually just 1-5 ATS in his next game after an upset loss as a home favorite, including 0-4 ATS as a favorite in his next game.  The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last five MNF games.  Herbert is 12-6-1 ATS as an underdog of +3 or higher in his career.  Bet the Chargers Monday.

15* Texans/Chiefs NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Houston +4

The Houston Texans have dug their way out of the 0-3 hole to start to go 7-2 in their last nine games overall.  They are now just one game out of first place in the AFC South.  They beat the Jaguars, Titans and Bills without CJ Stroud.  Stroud returned last week to lead them to a 20-16 upset road win at Indianapolis.  He threw for 276 yards in his return, and the Texans are fully healthy on offense and should be their best version of themselves moving forward.

But what really makes me like this Texans team is the fact that they have the best defense in the NFL ranking 1st in scoring defense at 16.5 points per game, 1st in total defense at 265.7 yards per game and 5th at 4.9 yards per play.  They rank at or near the top of the NFL in almost every advanced metric as well.

The Chiefs are going to be without three starters on the offensive line in this game in LT Justin Simmons, RT Jawaan Taylor and RG Trey Smith.  Patrick Mahomes is going to be under duress the entire game against the best defensive line in the NFL.  This is not the defense you want to be without three starters on the offensive line.

The Chiefs just have a way of playing in close games win or lose, it just so happens they are losing more of those close games now and I think it's starting to get to their head.  They are 1-6 in one-score games this season.  They aren't finishing games, and I don't see it magically changing this week.  At the very least, they should not be more than 2.5-point home favorites over the Texans, so getting +4 with Houston in a game that is likely decided by a FG either way is nice value.

Houston also wants revenge from a 23-14 loss at Kansas City in the playoffs last year.  The Chiefs were lucky to survive that game en route to the Super Bowl.  The Texans deserved to win and they know it, outgaining the Chiefs 336 to 212, or by 124 total yards.  This Houston defense is built to stop Kansas City and they will do it again with revenge in mind Sunday night.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bears/Packers OVER 44

This total of 44 is too low for a game involving the Bears, a dead nuts OVER team with a great offense and terrible defense.  The Bears and their opponents have gone for 44 or more combined points in nine of their 12 games this season.

The Bears rank 8th in scoring offense at 26.1 points per game, 6th in total offense at 374.2 yards per game and 11th at 5.8 yards per play.  They just put up 425 total yards on the Eagles last week, and the Eagles have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Bears rank 27th in total defense at 359 yards per game and 30th at 6.3 yards per play.  It's a very banged up Chicago defense which is a big reason for their struggles.

Since Matt LaFleur was called out after a 10-7 home loss to Philadelphia, the Packers have been thriving on offense the last three weeks.  They put up 27 points on the Giants, 23 on the Vikings and 31 on the Lions in three consecutive wins since.  They have done so without both WR Jayden Reid and WR Matthew Golden, who are both likely back this week.  Jordan Love will have his full compliment of weapons and will torch this Chicago defense.

It will be cold in Green Bay, but these teams are used to the cold.  The key is there will be no wind and no precipitation, which sets us up for a shootout.  This total of 44 is too short.  Green Bay will likely get to 30 points and Chicago will be forced to run even more up-tempo to try and keep up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee Titans +4.5

The Cleveland Browns cannot be favored by more than a FG over the Tennessee Titans today.  There's value with the Titans, who have gone 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall all against playoff contenders.  They suffered one-score losses to the Seahawks, Texans and Chargers.  In fact, the Titans have played six straight playoff contenders, so this is a huge step down in class for them and a great opportunity for them to get a win.

The Browns are coming off a 26-8 home loss to the 49ers last week.  They certainly won't be all that motivated to face the Titans.  And the injuries are bad for the Browns right now.  They are without three starting offensive linemen in LT Jones, RT Conklin and RG Teller.  Sanders has no chance against this fierce Tennessee defensive line, which is the strength of their team.  The Titans are very healthy with only C Cushenberry and CB Armour-Davis out this week.  Bet the TItans Sunday.

15* Steelers/Ravens AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -5.5

This is a great 'buy low' spot on the Baltimore Ravens.  After winning five straight games all by 7 points or more, the Ravens suffered a massive letdown on Thanksgiving Day with a 32-14 home loss to the Bengals as 7.5-point favorites.  No question getting Burrow back helped the Bengals, but it was a comedy of errors by the Ravens as they fumbled going into the end zone for a touchdown as part of their 5 turnovers.

It was Jeff Monken's worst play-calling game of the season as the Ravens got too pass-happy against the Bengals.  Now they will get back to running the football against a Pittsburgh defense that has been shockingly bad against the run.  The Steelers allowed 249 rushing yards to the Bills last week in a 26-7 home loss.

This Pittsburgh offense is even worse with a banged-up Rodgers at QB and no weapons.  The Steelers managed just 166 total yards against the Bills, who also have a bad defense.  Pittsburgh ranks 27th in total offense at 281.7 yards per game and 5.2 per play.  Compare that to the Ravens, which averaged 317.2 yards per game and 5.9 per play and the Ravens have the much better offense.  Those numbers include all the games missed by Jackson, too.

Pittsburgh is 28th in total defense allowing 365.1 yards per game.  This isn't your classic Mike Tomlin defense, in fact it's probably the worst one he's ever had.  It's an old, banged up defense.  The Steelers will be without DE Derrick Harmon and SS Kyle Dugger, plus they have eight defenders on IR already.  The Ravens should be able to get whatever they want against them.

Baltimore is one of the healthiest teams in the entire NFL.  The return to health since the bye week has made all the difference during this 5-1 run.  The offense has scored at least 23 points in five of their last six games and easily should have topped that number against the Bengals if not for the five turnovers.  The defense has allowed 19 points or fewer in six consecutive games.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Seattle Seahawks -6.5

The Atlanta Falcons had a chance to get back in the NFC South title race last week with a win.  Instead, they lost on a last-second field goal to the lowly Jets to fall to 4-8 on the season and out of contention.  They have suffered gut punch after gut punch with two OT losses and a missed XP in a 1-point loss to the Patriots during their 1-6 SU & 2-4-1 ATS run in their last seven games.

I don't think the Falcons get back up off the mat this week after that last-second loss to the Jets.  It's the type of loss that beats a team twice.  And the Falcons in their current state have no chance of keeping this game competitive against one of the best teams in the NFL in the Seattle Seahawks.

The Falcons were already without QB Michael Pennix Jr. and WR Drake London.  They were hopeful to get London back this week, but now that they are out of playoff contention he's not going to go.  They have nine players out or on IR on offense.  The defense is worse with 12 players out or on IR.  They have allowed 26.0 points per game in their last six games.

The Seahawks are 9-3 SU & 9-3 ATS this season.  They average 6.2 yards per play on offense and allow just 4.8 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.6 yards per play which is the best mark in the NFL.  They have no weaknesses and one of the best defenses in the NFL.  This healthy defense is showing what it's capable of holding the Rams to 249 total yards and the Vikings to 162 total yards in two of their last three games.  They held the Titans in check for three quarters with a three-touchdown lead before letting go of the rope in the 4th with the game in hand.  They didn't make that mistake last week in a 26-0 shutout of Minnesota.

The Seahawks are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.  Their defense wasn't healthy early but it is now and wreaking havoc on teams.  This is a big step down in class for Sam Darnold and this Seattle offense that has been a little disappointing in recent weeks against the Rams, Titans and Vikings, which are three great defenses.  They will get back going here indoors against this bad Atlanta defense that just allowed 27 points to the Jets last week.  This has blowout written all over it given all the factors and I can't believe we are getting Seattle as less than a TD favorite.  Bet the Seahawks Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Saints/Bucs UNDER 42

This will be a rematch from one of the ugliest games of the season in New Orleans in their first meeting on October 26th.  The Bucs beat the Saints 23-3 in a game that saw just 487 yards of total offense.  The Bucs only had 212 yards while the Saints had 275 yards.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and I love backing UNDERS in the 2nd meeting in these divisional matchups as a result.

The Saints are broken on offense.  They rank 30th in scoring at 15.2 points per game, 26th in total offense at 296.6 yards per game and 29th at 4.9 yards per play.  But they have an underrated defense, one that ranks 12th in total defense at 314.6 yards per game and 11th at 5.4 yards per play.

This combination of a terrible offense and underrated defense has led to the Saints going 7-0-1 UNDER in their last eight games overall.  They have gone for 44 or fewer combined points with their opponents in all eight games, and 40 or fewer in six of them.  This total of 42 is pretty high for a game involving the Saints right now.

The Bucs are also broken on offense right now.  Baker Mayfield is playing through injury, and he's doing so without two of his best weapons in Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan.  His best lineman in LT Tristan Wirfs is banged up and questionable.  The Bucs went UNDER the total in their last two games with 41 combined points with the Rams and 37 with the Cardinals.

Mayfield was injured in a 34-7 loss to the Rams.  The Bucs managed just 203 total yards in that game.  He returned last week and the Bucs managed just 20 points and 279 total yards against the Cardinals, one of the worst defenses in the NFL that was giving up big points and yards to everyone prior to that game.  

The Saints will hold the Bucs in check, too.  And a pretty much fully healthy Bucs defense will make life tough on a Saints offense that is missing RB Alvin Kamara and RT Taliese Fuaga.  Tyler Shough is playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, and WR Chris Olave is nowhere near 100% even though he is expected to play.  Points will be hard to come by for both teams in this one.  

The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between the Bucs and Saints with 36 or fewer combined points in six of those eight meetings.  The Saints rank dead last (32nd) in red zone TD percentage (38.7%) while the Bucs rank 25th (50%).  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bengals/Bills OVER 50.5

The Bengals are a dead nuts OVER team especially now with Joe Burrow at QB.  In his first game back from injury, Burrow led the Bengals to 32 points against a very good Baltimore defense.  He didn't even have Tee Higgins due to a concussion, and Higgins is back this week.  The Bengals are basically fully healthy on offense now.

But this Cincinnati defense is the reason they are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bengals rank 32nd in scoring defense at 31.2 points per game, 32nd in total defense at 410 yards per game and 31st at 6.4 yards per play.  It was a fluke they only allowed 14 points to the Ravens, who fumbled going into the end zone for a touchback as part of their 5 turnovers that took a bunch of points off the board.

The Bills will hang a big number on the Bengals at home, where their offense has shined this season.  The Bills are scoring 32.5 points per game and allowing 26.0 points per game at home this season.  They get both TE Dalton Kincaid and LT Dion Dawkins back from injury this week, who they didn't have in scoring 26 points on the Steelers last week with a ground-heavy approach.

Both teams are great at inside zone runs, and both defenses are terrible at defending inside zone runs.  The reason I don't believe the Bills are a real Super Bowl contender is a leaky defense.  And that defense will be without DE Joey Bosa and LB Terrel Bernard this week.  They are all banged up in the secondary as well, so Burrow should feast through the air and Brown should have a big day on the ground.

The forecast is actually going to favor a shootout even though there will be snow.  There will be no wind, which is the biggest factor.  The snow actually favors the offensive players because they know where they are going, while the defenders have to react and that's where the slips happen.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NFL Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Cowboys +3.5

The Dallas Cowboys have one of the best offenses in the NFL.  But the difference in their turnaround is getting healthy on defense, which got as many as five new players into the lineup out of their bye week.  They will be a force on defense moving forward, especially up the middle with the addition of DT Quinnen Williams.  They have a pass rush with LB Overshown back, and their secondary is shored up with the return of FS Hooker, SS Wilson and also rookie CB Revel Jr. mixing in there.

The Cowboys dominated the Raiders on Monday Night Football in a 33-16 win when they actually took knees at the goal line at the end of the game or it would have been 40-16.  They racked up 381 total yards on a solid Raiders defense, while limiting them to just 236 total yards.  They held them to 27 rushing yards, and they now have one of the best run-stuffing duos with DT's Clark and Williams moving forward.

The Cowboys came back from 21-0 down to beat the Eagles two weeks ago.  It was a comedy of errors that got them down 21-0, but the cream rose to the top eventually and the Cowboys were the better team without question.  They racked up 473 total yards on a very good Eagles defense and held them to 339, outgaining them by 134 yards.  That's an Eagles team that beat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl and backed it up with a win in KC earlier this season.

Speaking of Kansas City, Dallas won 31-28 as 3.5-point home dogs over the Chiefs on Thanksgiving.  They racked up 457 total yards on the Chiefs and held them to 362 yards, outgaining them by 95 yards.  So the Cowboys are now coming off consecutive wins over the two Super Bowl teams from last year and two of the better teams in the NFL this year.  There will be no letdown here with this being a National TV game and the Cowboys still on the outside looking in in terms of the playoffs.

The Cowboys are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now and a wagon when that's the case.  Their defense is going to be one of the best in the NFL moving forward and they are already proving that.  Their offense is fully healthy with the exception of LT Tyler Guyton.  It's a Dallas offense that ranks 1st in total offense at 393.1 yards per game and 2nd in scoring at 29.2 points per game.

The Lions are broken and one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the NFL.  They are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost 16-9 at Philadelphia as 2.5-point dogs and needed a 59-yard FG just to force OT as 14-point favorites over the Giants at home.  Jameis Winston and the Giants diced up this Detroit defense for 517 total yards and really should have won.  The Lions then lost 31-24 as 3-point home favorites to the Packers last week.

 It's a Detroit defense that is decimated by injuries right now.  FS Kerby Joseph, CB Terrion Arnold, DE Josh Paschal, DT Levi Onwuzurike and LB Zach Cunningham are all out.  SS Brian Branch is questionable.  The Cowboys are going to get whatever they want against this suspect Detroit defense that was shredded by the Giants and Packers at home the last two weeks.

The injuries aren't much better on offense.  The Lions will be without TE Sam LaPorta, his backup TE Brock Wright and WR Kalif Raymond and C Graham Glasgow.  Four starters along the offensive line are all questionable and battling injuries in LT Taylor Decker, LG Kayode Awosika, RT Penei Sewell and C Graham Glasgow.  What a mess.  

But the biggest blow came last week when star WR Amon-Ra St. Brown was knocked out of the Packers game with an ankle injury.  He hasn't practiced yet this week and is very doubtful to play tonight.  Jared Goff is going to be throwing to guys you've probably never heard of in TeSlaa, Kennedy, Lovett, Dwelley, Firkser and Rucci.  He's also going to be under duress all game and hates pressure up the middle, where Quinnen Williams and Frank Clark reside and will wreak havoc against the run and pass up the middle.

Given the health of the Cowboys compared to the health of the Lions, the wrong team is favored here.  I cannot believe this line opened +3.5 on the Cowboys this week.  I would make them a 25* at any underdog price, so +3 as of this writing is good too.  Make sure to put at least 25% of your bet on the Cowboys money line as well.  Bet the Cowboys Thursday.

20* Giants/Patriots ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 47.5

The New York Giants are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Giants are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall going for 47 or more combined points in six of those seven games, including 51 or more in five of them.  They have a healthy offense but a banged up, terrible defense.

The Giants have allowed an average of 31.7 points per game in their last six games.  They will be without LB Thibodeaux again today.  Their defense is gassed after a 34-27 (OT) loss at Detroit.  They racked up 517 total yards and played great offensively, but they allowed 494 total yards and couldn't get a stop in OT after a 27-27 tie going into it.

The Giants won't be getting many stops against the Patriots, either.  The Patriots have scored at least 23 points in all nine games during their current 9-game winning streak.  Drake Maye is among the MVP favorites, and he is getting the most out of his ample healthy weapons right now.  The Patriots rank 7th in scoring offense at 26.5 points per game and 5th at 6.1 yards per play.

The Giants are once again be forced to try and keep up in a shootout, and I have faith in their offense to be able to punch back.  Jaxson Dart returns from a concussion here and should be ready to go.  There's not much difference between him and Jameis Winston.  The Giants have scored at least 20 points in seven consecutive games.  The offensive is pretty much fully healthy right now with the exceptions of the guys they lost to IR early in the season.

I expect the Patriots to get to 28 or more in this one and the Giants to score at least 20 for a 8th consecutive game.  It will be cold in New England tonight, but there is no wind and no precipitation so the forecast looks good for a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Broncos/Commanders NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Washington +6.5

The Denver Broncos are one of the most fraudulent 9-2 teams I've ever seen.  But because of that misleading record, the Broncos are now nearly TD road favorites over the Washington Commanders this week.  We'll gladly 'sell high' on the Broncos and 'buy low' on the Commanders in this one.

The Broncos have won three straight games by exactly 3 points to improve to 7-2 in one-score games this season.  They have six wins by 4 points or less!  They have simply been fortunate in close games, which is why I say they are nowhere near as good as their record.  Their offense has taken a step back with Bo Nix, and they play a very conservative brand relying on the strength of their team which is their defense.  That conservatism makes it difficult for them to get margin.

The Broncos have only played four true road games all season so they have benefited from an easy schedule.  They are 2-2 SU in those true road games with the two wins coming by 4 at Philly after overcoming a 17-3 deficit and by 3 at Houston after CJ Stroud got knocked out early.  Asking them to go on the road here and win by a TD or more to beat us is asking too much.

I've been fading the Commanders a lot lately simply because they were decimated by injuries.  But they are coming off their bye week and get a lot of key guys back from injury this week that they were missing.  Their best playmaker in WR Terry McClaurin is back, their best defensive lineman in DT Daron Payne is back, and they get back FS Will Harris in the secondary from IR.

Dan Quinn has no quit in him, and he will have the Commanders ready to go this week in this National TV spot on Sunday Night Football.  While the bye came at the perfect time for the Commanders, it came at a poor time for the Broncos.  They had a lot of momentum going into the bye with a last-second win over the rival Chiefs.  I suspect the Broncos were 'fat and happy' over the last two weeks after beating the Chiefs, and they will come out of the bye sluggish and rusty knowing that they have a commanding lead in the division.

The Broncos have actually trailed in all 11 games they have played this season.  They are playing with fire and will eventually get burnt.  Bet the Commanders Sunday night.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Chargers -9

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Chargers.  They suffered a blowout loss at Jacksonville in their last game.  They were a tired, beat up team that desperately needed a bye week and they got that bye last week.  Now they come out of the bye almost as healthy as they have been all season, and they are refreshed and ready to make a playoff run.

It starts with a blowout home victory over the hapless Las Vegas Raiders, who get blown out on a regular basis.  The Raiders are 1-9 SU & 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their only win coming against the Tennessee Titans (1-10), the only team with a worse record than them this season.  Six of Vegas' nine losses have come by double-digits.  That includes a 14-point home loss to the lowly Cleveland Browns last week.

Chip Kelly was the scapegoat, but there's no hope for this Las Vegas offense no matter who is calling plays.  The offensive line is decimated with injuries playing without both starting tacklers in Kolton Millwer and Jackson Powers-Johnson.  RG Jordan Meredith is questionable as well.  They traded away their best receiver in Jakobi Myers, and now TE Michael Mayer is out.  Geno Smith is washed, and opposing defenses basically just have to lock in on stopping RB Ashton Jeanty and TE Brock Bowers.  You know the Chargers have prepared to do just that for the last two weeks.

The Chargers have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They rank 10th in scoring defense at 21.6 points per game, 5th in total defense at 286.1 yards per game and 8th at 5.3 yards per play.  The Chargers are fully health on defense coming out of the bye week and will be one of the best stop units in the NFL moving forward as long as that's the case.  They'll be up against a Raiders offense that ranks dead last (32nd) in scoring at 15.0 points per game, 30th at 268.9 yards per game and 30th at 4.9 yards per play.

The Chargers have elite talent on offense and will be healthier on the offensive line coming out of the bye.  They rank 12th in total offense at 347.3 yards per game and 12th at 5.7 yards per play.  They should have their way with a Raiders defense that is losing motivation by the week due to the shortcomings of their offense.  It's a Raiders defense that ranks 23rd in scoring at 25.2 points per game, allowing at least 24 points in seven of their last nine games, and 30-plus points five times during this stretch.

Jim Harbaugh owns the Raiders.  He is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in his three meetings with the Raiders as the coach of the Chargers with the three wins all coming by 11 points or more.  Justin Herbert is 20-9-1 ATS in his career against AFC West opponents, including a perfect 8-0-1 ATS in his last nine division starts.  Bet the Chargers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Jets +3

Just looking at this from a line value perspective, it's clear there's value on the Jets +3.  The Falcons were 2-point road underdogs last week to the New Orleans Saints.  Now they are 3-point road favorites over the Jets.  I have the Jets and Saints power rated about the same, so this 5-point adjustment in favor of the Falcons has gone too far.

That was a fluky 24-10 win at New Orleans.  The Saints missed 2 FG's and scored 3 points on two trips to the Atlanta 1-yard line.  They simply got nothing out of their scoring opportunities, while the Falcons got one big play to blow it open.  That misleading final has the Falcons overvalued this week.

Remember, the Falcons are still without two of their best players in QB Michael Penix Jr. and WR Drake London this week.  It's. Falcone team that had lost five straight prior to that win over the Saints, including two OT losses.  It's a tired Atlanta team playing for an 8th consecutive week now with a couple OT losses sprinkled in.  Injuries remain a problem down two O-Line starters and possibly a 3rd, plus 9 defenders on IR or ruled out.

Kirk Cousins played fine indoors in perfect elements in New Orleans.  It will be a different story here outdoors in the elements in New York.  There is a 100% chance of precipitation and double-digit winds forecast with gusts up to 30 MPH.  His lack of arm strength will be much more noticeable here.

What makes the Jets grossly overvalued is the wild stat where they don't have a INT all season, and they have forced just one turnover.  That is unheard of and just shows how unlucky they have been.  The Jets rank great from a success rate perspective defensively.  They are 14th in total defense at 321.6 yards per game and 11th at 5.4 yards per play.  They held the Ravens to just 241 total yards last week.

Look for Breece Hall and this Jets rushing attack to have a lot of success against the Falcons this week.  The Falcons rank 26th against the run at 133.1 yards per game and 23rd at 4.6 yards per carry.  This is simply a much more evenly-matched game than this line would indicate.  I have the Jets favored at home here.

The Falcons are 11-23-1 ATS following a win since 2020.  Teams coming off a win that ended a 5-plus game losing or more are just 6-15 SU & 8-11-2 ATS over the last five years.  Tyrod Taylor is 11-2-1 ATS as an underdog in his career when the team he is playing for is under .500.  The Falcons are 0-4 SU in outdoor games this season getting outscored by 11.8 points per game in those four losses.  Bet the Jets Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +5.5

The weather will be similar to the last time Brock Purdy traveled to Cleveland a few years ago.  It was a rainy, windy game where he finished just 12-of-27 for 125 yards with a INT and a fumble in a 19-17 road loss.  Purdy is coming off a 3 INT game against Carolina in his first game back from injury.  He is notoriously bad in poor weather games like this one.

Temps will be in the 30's with 25 MPH sustained winds and gusts of over 40 MPH at times.  The total for this game had cratered to 35.5 as of this writing, but the spread has not cratered with it.  The lower the total the more value there is on the underdog, and boy has there been value on the Browns as a home underdog all season.

Indeed, the Browns are a perfect 4-0 ATS at home this season.  They lost by 1 to the Bengals as 4.5-point dogs with Joe Burrow.  They upset the packers as 7.5-point dogs.  They crushed the Dolphins 31-6 as 2.5-point favorites.  And they hung right with the Ravens in a 7-point loss as 7.5-point dogs.

Shadeur Sanders made his first start for the Browns last week and led them to a 24-10 win at Las Vegas.  He at least gives them the threat of the deep ball as Dillon Gabriel gave them nothing in that department.  It was a move the Browns should have made a long time ago to see what they had in Sanders, and he at least gives them a little more life.

But this comes down to this Cleveland defense, which has been dominant at home.  The Browns are allowing just 14.0 points per game, 235.3 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play at home this season despite facing some very good QB's in Lamar, Burrow, Love and Tua.  Cleveland is a house of horrors for good teams traveling on the road.  The Browns are actually 13-5 SU at home against teams that are above .500 on the season.

The 49ers are a tired, injury-ravaged team that hasn't had their bye yet.  That makes this spot even worse for them on a short week after beating the Panthers at home on Monday Night Football.  They will be playing for a 13th consecutive week and their 4th road game in 6 weeks with a lot of travel involved in between, plus the distraction of Thanksgiving Week.

This is a bad, bad San Francisco defense.  The 49ers allowed 488 total yards to the Cardinals two weeks ago, 42 points to the Rams three weeks ago, 24 points to the Giants four weeks ago and 475 total yards to a bad Texans offense five weeks ago.  This defense has been much worse on the road, allowing 22.7 points per game, 372 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.

The injury situation isn't any better for the 49ers on defense this week, either.  They were already without DE Nick Bosa, LB Fred Warner, DE Gross-Matos and DE Jackson.  Now they will be without two more starters this week as DE Okuayinonu and LB Bethune have been ruled out.  The Browns have a dominant offensive line, and that offensive line should win the battle at the line of scrimmage against this decimated 49ers defense.  That will be the difference in the game.  The 49ers only rush for 99.2 yards per game (26th) and 3.6 per carry (31st) this season so they have struggled to move the ball on the ground.  Bet the Browns Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Texans +4.5

The Houston Texans have fought their way back from a 0-3 start to get to 6-5 this season and back in the playoff race.  But they still trail the Colts by two games in the AFC South, and their best chance of making the playoffs is to win the AFC South.  That makes this a 'must win' game for them to pull within one game of the Colts for first place with the tiebreaker.  A loss and they are pretty much done.

The Texans have won their last three games even without CJ Stroud as Davis Mills has held down the fort nicely in his absence.  But Stroud returns this week at the perfect time with the Texans coming off a mini-bye week after beating the Bills at home last Thursday.  He gets extra time to get re-acclimated into the offense.

The Texans have the best defense in the NFL, and they've even been playing without do-it-all CB Jalen Pitre for the last few games due to a concussion.  Like Stroud, Pitre returns to the lineup this week, and now the Texans are one of the most healthy teams in the league on both sides of the football.  They are remarkably healthy with all 22 starters they had on their depth chart at the start of the season now starting this week.

The Colts benefited from an easy schedule to get off to an 8-2 start this season.  They took a step up in class last week and lost to the Chiefs.  It was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Chiefs outgained the Colts 494 to 255, or by 239 total yards.

Daniel Jones popped up on the injury report with a fibula injury last week, and it turns out it's partially fractured and he will be playing through it.  He won't have the same mobility that he had when everyone was calling for him to win MVP early in the season.  Jones is now back to his former self, the one that was terrible with the Giants.  The Colts are reliant too much on RB Jonathan Taylor to move the football.  Star TE Tyler Warren popped up on the injury report as questionable Saturday with an illness, too, and things are just starting to fall apart a little for the Colts right now.

Jones and Taylor have no chance against this Houston defense, which ranks 2nd in scoring at 16.5 points per game, 1st in total defense at 264.3 yards per game and 3rd at 4.9 yards per play.  The Colts rank 23rd in total defense at 342.7 yards per game and will be without DT DeForest Buckner again this week.  This line should be much closer to PK.  Houston has just one loss in its last six meetings with Indianapolis.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rams/Panthers OVER 45

The Carolina Panthers are a dead nuts OVER team in their current state.  They have a respectable offense with a lot of playmakers, but their defense is terrible and decimated by injuries right now.  They have no chance of slowing down this high-powered Rams offense, who will lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket by hanging a big number on Carolina.

This total is lower than it should be due to both teams coming off low-scoring games.  The Rams benefited from Baker Mayfield getting injured last week.  It was a brutal beat for over backs as the Rams and Bucs combined for 38 points at halftime, but only combined to score 3 points after intermission.  The Rams sat on the ball knowing backup QB Teddy Bridgewater could do nothing to move the football.  The Rams won't have that luxury this week and will have to keep scoring as Bryce Young and the Panthers have shown time and time again they will keep coming.

The Panthers are coming off a 20-9 loss to the 49ers.  That game was also fluky.  Brock Purdy threw 3 INT and almost all of them were deep in Panthers territory to take away points.  Bryce Young threw a INT at the 1-yard line on 1st down to take a TD off the board.  It was a fluky result and should have seen more combined points than it did.  But we'll take advantage here and bet the OVER in a 'buy low' spot off two teams coming off unders last week.

The Rams rank 6th in scoring offense at 27.8 points per game, 9th in total offense at 358.4 yards per game and 7th at 5.9 yards per play.  Matthew Stafford is the MVP of the league, and he has his full compliment of weapons for this one with Adams, Nacua and Williams plus Tutu Atwell returns from injury this week.

The Panthers will be without three starters on defense this week.  They were already without leading tackler Chrstian Rozeboom (91 tackles), but now they will be without their best CB Jaycee Horn and starting SS Tre'Von Moehrig.  Horn suffered a concussion against the 49ers last week, and Moehrig is suspended for punching Jauan Jennings in the balls.  They can't afford to be without these guys if they want any chance of slowing down this Rams offense.

Carolina and its opponents have combined for at least 49 points in five of its last nine games.  The Rams will be without starting CB Quintin Lake, plus FS Kamren Kitchens and NT Poona Ford are questionable.  Young will find some success against this Los Angeles secondary and I look for the Panthers to keep coming to get us this OVER.  Temps will be in the 50's with no wind, so scoring conditions are good.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Bears/Eagles NFC No-Brainer on OVER 44

The Chicago Bears are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bears and their opponents have combined for at least 44 points in 11 of their 13 games this season.  This total of 44 is very low for a game involving the Bears right now.

The Bears rank 8th in scoring offense at 26.3 points per game, 6th in total offense at 369.6 yards per game and 9th at 5.9 yards per play.  The Bears rank 27th in scoring defense at 26.5 points per game, 27th in total defense at 362.8 yards per game and 30th at 6.3 yards per play.  Chicago games are averaging 52.8 combined points per game this season.

A lot has been made of the struggles of this Philadelphia offense, but this is the perfect defense for them to get on track against and hang a big number today.  The injuries are ugly for this Chicago defense.  They will be without all three starting LB's in Hyppolie II, Edwards and Sewell.  They will be without two more starters in DE Robinson and CB Stevenson.  The Eagles should get whatever they want on the ground against Chicago.

I trust the Bears to do enough offensively in this one to get us this OVER.  They will likely be playing fast in the 2H in a trailing game state and it will lead to either quick scores or quick turnovers from Caleb Williams.  The Cowboys racked up 473 total yards on the Eagles last week.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Bengals/Ravens NBC ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -7

Note: I like a 3-team 7-point teaser at +120 on Ravens PK, Cowboys +10.5 & Packers +10 on Thanksgiving Day.  6-Point teaser pairings with the Ravens -1 I like are Packers +8.5 or better, Jets +8.5 or better and Patriots -1.5 or better.

The Cincinnati Bengals are getting too much respect due to the return of Joe Burrow this week.  Burrow is a notoriously slow starter every NFL season, and this will be just like his first start of the season.  He isn't anywhere near 100%, and there's talk of him only being able to play out of the shotgun because his toe is limiting him that much.  He won't be prime Joe Burrow in his first game back from injury.

The Ravens are on a mission to win the AFC North and have played up to their potential since getting healthy.  The Ravens are 5-0 SU & 3-2 ATS since their bye week with all five wins coming by 7 points or more and by an average of 12.8 points per game.  They beat the Bears by 14 and the Jets by 13 in their two home games during this stretch.

The Ravens have one of the best defenses in the NFL now that they are healthy.  They have allowed 19 points or fewer in six consecutive games and and average of just 14.0 points per game in their last six games.  They are fully healthy on offense and defense with the exception of backups with WR Rashod Bateman back to give the offense an added weapon.

The Bengals rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 32.7 points per game, dead last in total defense at 415.8 yards per game and 31st at 6.4 yards per play.  They are without three of their best defenders in DE Trey Hendrickson, DE Shamar Stewart and CB Cam Taylor-Britt.  DE Cam Sample is questionable as well.  

The Ravens are going to get whatever they want against the Bengals.  What really excites me is the thought of the power zone concepts that the Ravens run against a Bengals defense that ranks dead last against that concept.  Derrick Henry is in line for a monster day against a Bengals defense that ranks 31st allowing 156 yards per game and 29th at 5.1 yards per carry.  

Lamar Jackson is 6-1 SU & 4-3 ATS vs. Burrow in their careers.  Night game favorites on Thanksgiving are 14-4 ATS since 2006.  Lamar Jackson is 5-0 SU in his career in early week games (before Sunday) winning by an average of 14 points per game in this spot.  Bet the Ravens Thursday.

15* NFL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Chiefs/Cowboys UNDER 52.5

The Kansas City Chiefs are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They go on long, methodical drives on offense and are one of the worst red zone offenses in the NFL.  They also have one of the best defenses in the league.

The Chiefs are 6-0 UNDER in their last six games overall finishing with 49 or fewer combined points in all six games.  This total of 52.5 is very high for a game involving the Chiefs.  They even played some high-powered offenses in the Lions, Bills and Colts during this 6-0 UNDER run.

The Cowboys will have one of the best defenses in the NFL moving forward.  got as many as five new players into the lineup out of their bye week.  They will be a force on defense moving forward, especially up the middle with the addition of DT Quinnen Williams.  They have a pass rush with LB Overshown back, and their secondary is shored up with the return of FS Hooker, SS Wilson and also rookie CB Revel Jr. mixing in there.

In their first game with everyone back plus the addition of Williams, they held the Raiders to 236 total yards including just 27 rushing.  Last week, they held the Eagles to 21 points and 339 total yards, including just 63 rushing.  These Cowboys totals were justified being so high in the first half of the season when they had no defense, but this total of 52.5 is too high for a game involving these two elite defenses now.  

The Chiefs rank 4th in scoring defense at 18.3 points per game and 6th in total defense at 293 yards per game.  Kansas City will be without two key players on offense RG Trey Smith and TE Noah Gray.  The Cowboys will be without LT Tyler Guyton this week.  The Chiefs do get RB Isaiah Pacheco back, which will give them more confidence to try and run the ball more, which will also benefit the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Chiefs/Cowboys CBS No-Brainer on Dallas +3.5

The Dallas Cowboys have one of the best offenses in the NFL.  But the difference in their turnaround is getting healthy on defense, which got as many as five new players into the lineup out of their bye week.  They will be a force on defense moving forward, especially up the middle with the addition of DT Quinnen Williams.  They have a pass rush with LB Overshown back, and their secondary is shored up with the return of FS Hooker, SS Wilson and also rookie CB Revel Jr. mixing in there.

The Cowboys dominated the Raiders on Monday Night Football in a 33-16 win when they actually took knees at the goal line at the end of the game or it would have been 40-16.  They racked up 381 total yards on a solid Raiders defense, while limiting them to just 236 total yards.  They held them to 27 rushing yards, and they now have one of the best run-stuffing duos with DT's Clark and Williams moving forward.

The Cowboys have a ton of momentum after coming back from 21-0 down to beat the Eagles last week.  It was a comedy of errors that got them down 21-0, but the cream rose to the top eventually and the Cowboys were the better team without question.  They racked up 473 total yards on a very good Eagles defense and held them to 339, outgaining them by 134 yards.  That's an Eagles team that beat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl and backed it up with a win in KC earlier this season.

The Chiefs are coming off a huge 23-20 (OT) win at home over the Colts.  That game went deep into OT before the Chiefs eventually kicked the game-winning FG with two minutes left.  That means their team was on the field for a lot of plays and nearly an extra full quarter.  Now this is a tough spot for them on a short week with travel involved.  Three key players suffered injuries in that game that they will be without this week in RG Trey Smith, TE Noah Gray and CB Chris Roland-Wallace.

The Cowboys are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now and a wagon when that's the case.  Their defense is going to be one of the best in the NFL moving forward and they are already proving that.  Their offense is fully healthy with the exception of LT Tyler Guyton.  It's a Dallas offense that ranks 1st in total offense at 387.3 yards per game and 4th in scoring at 29.1 points per game.

The Chiefs are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in all road games this season with their only win coming against Russell Wilson and the New York Giants.  They lost to the Chargers, Jaguars, Bills and Broncos, and the Cowboys are good enough to beat them at home here.  At the very least this line should be PK, so getting Dallas +3.5 is a tremendous value.

Teams on short rest off an OT game against a team that's not off a OT game are 26-48 SU & 24-47-3 ATS over the last 20 years.  Road teams in this spot like the Chiefs are 9-28 SU & 11-25-1 ATS.  These teams are 6-21 SU & 5-22 ATS in Thursday games during this span.  The Chiefs are 0-5 SU in their last five road games against Dallas.  Dak Prescott is 5-0 SU in his last five home games in an early week spot winning by 11.2 points per game.  Bet the Cowboys Thursday.

15* Packers/Lions FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay +3

The Packers are the better, healthier team with the much better defense.  This line suggest the Lions are the better team, but that's just not the case right now.  I'll gladly take the value and the full 3 points with the road underdog Packers.  Matt LaFleur is 18-6-1 ATS as an underdog of 3 points or more as the head coach of the Packers.

Teams on short rest off an OT game against a team that's not off a OT game are 26-48 SU & 24-47-3 ATS over the last 20 years.  These teams are 6-21 SU & 5-22 ATS in Thursday games during this span.  The Lions are in this dreadful spot off a 34-27 (OT) home win over the New York Giants as 14-point favorites.  They needed a 59-yard FG just to force OT.

Jameis Winston and the Giants diced up this Detroit defense for 517 total yards and really should have won.  It's a Detroit defense that is decimated by injuries right now and was on the field for 76 plays against the Giants.  FS Kerby Joseph, DE Josh Paschal, DT Levi Onwuzurike and LB Zach Cunningham are all out.  CB Terrion Arnold and DE Marcus Davenport are questionable.

The injuries aren't much better on offense.  The Lions will be without TE Sam LaPorta, his backup TE Brock Wright, WR Kalif Raymond and C Graham Glasgow.  Three other starters along the offensive line are all questionable and battling injuries in LT Taylor Decker, RG Tate Ratledge and RT Penei Sewell.  What a mess.

The Packers are fully healthy on offense with the exception of TE Tucker Kraft, WR Jayden Reed and backup WR Savion Williams.  WR Matthew Golden is questionable after sitting out last week, so there's a good chance he returns this week.  RB Josh Jacobs returns to form a great 1-2 punch with Emanuel Wilson, who rushed for for 107 yards and 2 TD in Jacobs' absence in a 23-6 win over the Vikings last week.

The Packers may have the best defense in the NFL right now.  They were only on the field for 39 plays last week and held the Vikings to just 145 total yards.  They rank 5th in scoring defense at 18.4 points per game and 4th in total defense at 278.7 yards per game.  They are also 2nd at 4.8 yards per play allowed.

The Packers beat the Lions 27-13 in the season opener while holding Detroit to 246 total yards.  That was before they traded for Micah Parsons, and their defense has been even better with him since.  Parsons and company will wreak havok in the opposing backfield up against this banged-up Detroit offensive line and make life tough on Jared Goff once again.  The Packers have held eight of 11 opponents to 20 points or fewer this season, and only one team has scored more than 25 against them all season.  Bet the Packers Thursday.

20* Panthers/49ers ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 47.5

The San Francisco 49ers are a dead nuts OVER team in their current state.  They are back to near full strength on offense and have one of the best offenses in the league when that's the case.  But their defense is as injured as any defense in the NFL right now and they just cannot stop anyone.  That forces them to try and win shootouts week after week.

The 49ers are 6-1-1 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 49 or more combined points in five of their last seven games.  That includes 63, 68 and 58 points in their last three games coming into this one.  This is a very low total for a game involving the 49ers right now.

Brock Purdy returned to lead the 49ers to a 41-22 win at Arizona last week.  Purdy went 19-of-26 passing for 200 yards and 3 TD win the win.  He found George Kittle 6 times for 67 yards and 2 TD.  Kittle recently returned from injury, and now Rickey Pearsall is back after making his return last week.  He should get targeted much more this week.

It was a miracle the 49ers only gave up 22 points to the Cardinals when you consider they allowed 488 total yards.  Jacoby Brissett lit them up for 452 passing yards despite not having all of his top weapons at receiver, including Marvin Harrison Jr.  This came a week after allowing 42 points and 401 total yards to the Rams.

The 49ers have been lost without their two leaders on defense in DE Nick Bosa and LB Fred Warner.  The injuries keep piling up as DE Gross-Matos and DE Jackson are both on IR, DE Beal Jr. and LB Bethune are both out, and LB Gifford is questionable.  The Panthers should be able to get whatever they want both on the ground and through the air against this 49ers mash unit.

Bryce Young led the Panthers to a 30-27 (OT) comeback win in Atlanta from 14 points down last week.  It was the best game of his career as he went 31-of-45 passing for 448 yards and 3 TD in the win.  With WR's McMillian, Legette and Coker and RB's Dowdle and Hubbard, the Panthers have some of the most underrated playmakers in the league.  They are also fully healthy on offense with the exception of C Cade Mayes, but backup C Austin Corbett has plenty of experience starting in his place.

The Panthers have injury concerns of their own on defense with both starting LB's Rozeboom and Wallace out for this game.  Those are huge losses as Rozebook has 91 tackles while Wallace has 52 tackles and 2 sacks.  You know Kyle Shanahan will scheme it up to exploit those weaknesses in the middle of this Carolina defense.

The Panthers are 5-3 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 49 or more combined points in five of those eight games.  So this total of 47.5 is also pretty low for a game involving the Panthers right now.  Both offenses will have their way with these two defenses Monday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

25* NFL DOG OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints ML +115

Note: I released this play early in the week when the Saints were underdogs.  I would lay up to -150 with the Saints.

The spot really favors the Saints.  They are coming off their bye week and have a first-year head coach in Kellen Moore who will get the most out of this bye week.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL with only two starters listed as questionable this week, so they come out of the bye week healthy, rested and ready to go.

Look for them to pick up where they left off after a 17-7 road win over the Carolina Panthers going into their bye.  That was a more dominant result than the final score showed.  The Saints outgained the Panthers 388 to 175, or by 213 total yards.  Tyler Shough went 19-of-27 passing for 282 yards and 2 TD in the win and looks to be an upgrade from Spencer Rattler.

The spot couldn't be worse for the Falcons.  They have lost five straight with the last three being gut-wrenching losses after getting blowing out by the 49ers and Dolphins.  Three weeks ago they lost by 1 at New England after a missed XP, two weeks ago they lost in OT by 6 to the Colts in London, and last week they lost by 3 in OT after blowing a 14-point lead to the Panthers.  

The Falcons now sit at 3-7 on the season and eliminated from playoff contention and they know it.  They especially know it now that QB Michael Penix Jr. is out for the season.  They completed folded after he left the game and was replaced by Kirk Cousins last week against the Panthers.  Making matters worse, they will also be without their best receiver in Drake London (60 receptions, 810 yards, 6 TD) this week.

The Falcons injuries don't stop there.  They are without two starting offensive linemen and another two starters are questionable.  They have nine defenders on IR or out and LB Leonard Floyd is questionable.  They have been pitiful on both sides of the ball, especially defensively during this stretch.  And their offense has been atrocious with Cousins at QB.

We saw what Cousins could do with a full week of prep already, losing 34-10 at home to the lowly Miami Dolphins.  He is absolutely washed.  He is averaging just 4.8 yards per attempt on his 52 attempts this season and has yet to throw a TD pass.  The defense is just as big of a concern, allowing 29.8 points per game in their last four games.  They just allowed 486 total yards to the Panthers last week after giving up 519 yards to the Colts in London.  All this travel and all these OT losses will take their toll this week.  Bet the Saints on the Money Line Sunday.

20* Eagles/Cowboys NFC East No-Brainer on Dallas +3.5

Dak Prescott is 21-2 SU at home in his career against NFC East opponents.  That includes 6-1 SU against the Philadelphia Eagles.  He does not lose at home, and he has this Cowboys offense rolling this season and ready to take down the Eagles this week.

But the difference for the Cowboys is their defense, which got as many as five new players into the lineup out of their bye week.  They will be a force on defense moving forward, especially up the middle with the addition of DT Quinnen Williams.  They have a pass rush with LB Overshown back, and their secondary is shored up with the return of FS Hooker, SS Wilson and also rookie CB Revel Jr. mixing in there.

The Cowboys dominated the Raiders on Monday Night Football in a 33-16 win when they actually took knees at the goal line at the end of the game or it would have been 40-16.  They racked up 381 total yards on a solid Raiders defense, while limiting them to just 236 total yards.  They held them to 27 rushing yards, and I think the matchup is a great one for them because they should have one of the best run-stuffing duos with DT's Clark and Williams moving forward.

If anyone can stop the tush push the Eagles love to run, it's the Cowboys.  This Philadelphia team has been getting away with murder this season winning almost every close game.  The Eagles are overrated due to their 8-2 record, and they should not be 3.5-point road favorites over the Cowboys.  While the Eagles have a great defense, their offense has been one of the worst in the NFL and will get shut down here.

The Cowboys rank 2nd in scoring offense at 29.6 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 378.7 yards per game, 6th at 6.0 yards per play and 9th at 4.7 yards per carry.  The Eagles rank 16th scoring 23.4 points per game, 25th in total offense at 300.1 yards per game, 24th at 5.3 yards per play and 25th at 3.9 yards per carry.  

Their offense is broken, and now they will be without their most important offensive lineman in LT Lane Johnson for this game.  Their numbers with him in and out of the lineup are staggering.  The Eagles are 96-41-1 SU when Lane starts and 12-23 SU when he doesn't over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on New England Patriots -7

Note: I really like Patriots O 29.5 team total. I also like 6-point teasers with the Patriots -1. Good options to pair with them are the 49ers -1, Rams -0.5, Cowboys +9.5.

The Cincinnati Bengals fell to 3-7 on the season with their 34-12 road loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers last week.  It was a pretty pathetic effort considering they were off their bye week and with a chance to sweep the Steelers in the season series, which would have kept their hopes alive to make the playoffs.  Now all hope is gone, and I question how much they want to show up this week.

WR Jamar Chase got suspended for this game after losing his temper and spitting on Jalen Ramsey.  The offense will be lost without Chase, who was forming a great chemistry with Flacco.  Now Flacco is clearly nursing a shoulder injury that he is playing through and just hasn't been the same since suffering it.  The Bengals managed just 297 yards against a poor Pittsburgh defense last week and got a lot of those yards in garbage time with the game decided.

But the biggest problem for the Bengals is having the worst defense in the NFL.  They rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 33.4 points per game, 32nd at 418.2 yards per game and 31st at 6.5 yards per play.  The kicker was giving up 39 points and 502 yards to Justin Fields and the Jets and 47 points and 576 total yards to Caleb Williams and the Bears going into the bye.

If things couldn't get any worse for this Bengals defense, they are now without four of their best players on defense in DE Trey Hendrickson, DE Shemar Stewart, DE Cam Sample and CB Cam Taylor-Britt.  You can just imagine what this Patriots offense is going to do to them.

Drake Maye is among the MVP favorites while leading the Patriots to eight consecutive victories coming into this one.  Maye is completing 71.9% of his passes for 2,836 yards with a 20-to-5 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 285 yards and two scores.  Now he gets both WR Boutte (341 yards, 5 TD) and RB Stevenson (279 yards, 3 TD) back from injury this week.  And rookie RB Henderson has scored 5 touchdowns in his last two games without Stevenson and is coming into his own.

What's most amazing about the Patriots is that they are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now despite not having their bye week yet.  They are refreshed with a mini-bye week after beating the Jets 27-14 last Thursday.  You can't run on their defense, which ranks 1st against the run at 84.7 yards per game and 8th at 3.9 yards per carry.  So the Bengals are going to have to be one-dimensional, which isn't a recipe for success in the NFL.  This will get ugly quickly, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see some quit in the Bengals in the 2H.  Bet the Patriots Sunday.

20* Colts/Chiefs AFC No-Brainer on Kansas City -3

There have been 14 teams since 1990 to be 5-5 or worse and favored over a team that has won 80% or more of their games in the 11th game of the season or later.  Those 14 teams went 14-0 SU & 12-0-2 ATS.  The Chiefs are the 15th team in this situation, and they are favored here at home for good reason.

The Chiefs have their bye two weeks ago and are as healthy as any team in the NFL right now.  They came up short on a last-second FG in Denver, but they will bounce back at home here against the Colts.  They go from being 4.5-point road favorites in Denver to only 3-point home favorites over the Colts.  This line makes no sense as the Colts and Broncos are power rated as near equals and even played a coin flip in Indianapolis earlier this season in which Denver was favored.

The Chiefs have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL.  They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 15.8 points per game.  The Colts are 2-2 on the road losing to the Rams by 7 and the Steelers by 7.  They are much more vulnerable on the highway, and this will easily be their stiffest road test of the season.

The Colts have a commanding lead in the AFC South and can afford a loss.  I also think the bye week came at a bad time considering they were rolling.  The bye week could have only halted their momentum as they went into it fat and happy.  Teams winning 80% or more of their games and coming off a bye in Week 10 or later are just 36-50-1 ATS since 2005.

Sitting at 5-5 on the season, the Chiefs need this game like blood and cannot afford a loss if they want to make the playoffs.  I think they put their best foot forward as a result.  The Chiefs went 9-1 to open last season but actually had worse numbers than they do at 5-5 this season. The difference is they won all their one-score games last year, and they are 0-5 in one-score games this season.  They are averaging 364.2 yards per game and 5.9 per paly on offense and allowing just 396.8 yards per game and 5.6 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 68 yards per game.  Bet the Chiefs Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Giants/Lions OVER 49.5

The New York Giants are a dead nuts OVER team in their current state going 5-1 OVER in their last six games.  Jameis Winson is an OVER QB who will stretch the field but also make costly mistakes to set up opponents for easy scores.  And the Giants currently have one of the worst defenses in the NFL due to all their injuries.

The Lions are pretty healthy and explosive on offense when in a dome, which they will be this week when they return home.  But the Lions are decimated with injuries on defense, and I think Winston and company will have success against them through the air against their banged up secondary.

The Lions are scoring 33.5 points per game at home this season.  They'll be facing a New York defense that is allowing an average of 31.2 points per game in their last five games.  The Giants will be without LB Thibodeaux and CB Adebo again this week, and SS Nubin and CB Banks are both questionable.  The Lions will top their season average in this one, especially against a Giants D that has allowed an average of 175.2 rushing yards per game in their last five games.  The Lions will score every time they get to the red zone.

Winston had the ball deep in Green Bay territory before throwing a INT in the end zone in a 27-20 loss last week.  That was nearly a 27-27 tie and 54 combined points.  That's a Green Bay team with an elite defense too, and he held up well against it.  His job will be much easier this week indoors against this hobbled Detroit defense.  It will also be easiest since he gets his best receiver in Darius Slayton back from a hamstring injury.

The Lions will be without both CB Terrion Arnold and FS Kerby Joseph this week.  DE Josh Paschal and DE Marcus Davenport remain out.  After facing two poor offenses in the Commanders with Mariota and the hapless Eagles offense, the Lions will meet their match this week.  Keep in mind they gave up 27 points to the Vikings and JJ McCarthy in their last home game, and McCarthy couldn't have looked worse since.  The Giants will easily get into the 20's while the Lions get into the 30's and we easily cash this OVER 49.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Bills/Texans AFC No-Brainer on Houston +6

I'll gladly take 6 points with the best defense in the NFL at home against anyone.  The Texans rank 1st in scoring defense at 16.3 points per game, 1st in total defense at 258.1 yards per game and 2nd at 4.8 yards per play.  They are pretty much 1st or 2nd in every major defensive statistic this season.

That's why they can get away with having backup QB Davis Mills.  I think Mills is one of the best backups in the NFL, and it's not that much of a downgrade from CJ Stroud to him, especially with how healthy everyone else is around him right now.  Mills is completng 60% of his passes for 726 yards with a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio on the season, mostly from the last two weeks.  Hew threw for 293 yards against the Jaguars and 274 yards against the Titans the last two weeks.

The Texans are fully healthy outside of Stroud and NB Jalen Pitre.  That makes them a dangerous team right now.  The Bills are far from full strength, which makes them vulnerable and explains how poorly they have played on the road this season.  The Bills are without TE Dalton Kincaid, WR Curtis Samuel and WR Mecole Hardman on offense.  They are without DT Ed Oliver, SS Taylor Rapp and FS Damar Hamlin on defense.

Injuries along the defensive line are a big reason the Bills rank 31st in rushing defense allowing 153.0 yards per game and 31st at 5.4 yards per carry allowed.  The Texans know they can get what they want on the ground with Woody Marks and company, which will take a lot of pressure off of Mills having to do it all with his arm.

Two of the Bills worst performances came in two of their last three road games.  They lost 24-14 at Atlanta and 30-13 at Miami.  Josh Allen isn't nearly as good on the road, and he had one of the worst games of his career the last time he faced Houston on the road.  Last season, Allen went 9-of-30 passing for 131 yards in a 23-20 road loss to the Texans.  Houston outgained Buffalo 425 to 276 in that contest, or by 149 total yards.

In their last two games with Mills at QB, they outgained the Jaguars 412 to 213, or by 199 total yards.  They outgained the Titans 315 to 229, or by 86 yards.  That was a Titans team coming off a bye and getting several key players back as well as it was a tricky spot.  The Texans need wins like blood sitting at 5-5 on the season and need this win more than the Bills do.  They haven't lost at home by more than 3 points all season, and they have just one home loss by more than 5 points over the last two seasons combined.  Bet the Texans Thursday.

20* Cowboys/Raiders ESPN No-Brainer on Dallas -3

I love the spot for the Dallas Cowboys this week.  They are off their bye week and had extra time to deal with the death of Marshawn Kneeland.  Now they will be playing inspired football for their teammate, and their defense will look nothing like it has up to this point in the season, which has been one of the worst units in football.

The Cowboys could have as many as five key contributors available that they haven't had this season.  They traded for Quinnen Williams and he and Kenny Clark will form one of the best run-stuffing duos in the NFL moving forward.  They get back pass-rusher DeMarvion Overshown from IR, and he is the player the Cowboys believed in enough to trade away Micah Parsons.  They get CB Shavon Revel to make his season debut.  S Malik Hooker should be back from IR and felow S Donovan Wilson will be back as well.  This is going to be one of the most improved defenses in the NFL moving forward.

The Cowboys have an elite offense and are fully healthy on offense to boot.  They rank 4th in scoring offense at 29.2 points per game and 4th in total offense at 378.4 yards per game.  Their offensive line is fully healthy, and they have their full compliment of weapons for Dak Prescott.  This will remain one of the best offenses in the NFL moving forward.

The Raiders are an absolute dumpster fire.  They are 2-7 on the season and traded away their best receiver in Jakobi Myers, who is already making big plays for the Jaguars.  Their offense is embarrassing, ranking 31st in scoring offense at 15.4 points per game and 30th in total offense at 272.7 yards per game.  Basically stop Brock Bowers and Ahton Jeanty and you stop the Raiders, which will be Dallas' focus.  QB Geno Smith was noticeably hobbled in the 2H against the Broncos last week and may not be 100%.  He will be playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL especially now that they are down two starters in LT Kolton Miller and RG Jackson Powers-Johnson.

The Raiders just don't have the firepower to keep up with the Cowboys, and I think the defense is a little overrated due to a pretty easy schedule of opposing offenses.  When they have faced some of the better offenses in the NFL they have allowed 41 points to the Commanders, 40 to the Colts, 31 to the Chiefs and 30 to the Jaguars.  I expect the Cowboys to get to 30 tonight, and it will be more than enough to cover this 3-point spread.  Bet the Cowboys Monday.

20* Chiefs/Broncos AFC West No-Brainer on Kansas City -3.5

I love the spot for the Kansas City Chiefs.  They are coming off their bye week and motivated to chase down the Broncos in the AFC West.  This is a must-win game for them, so I know we are going to get their best effort, and it should be good enough to cover this 3.5-point spread on the road.

Andy Reid is 22-4 SU off a bye.  The Chiefs are 11-1 SU against AFC West opponents with extended prep time under Mahomes.  Reid and Mahomes are 31-7 SU with extended prep time together since 2019.

The Chiefs are rolling right now with one of the best offenses of the Mahomes era now that he has all of his weapons healthy.  The Chiefs have averaged 29.2 points per game since getting Xavier Worthy back from injury.  Since then they've gotten back Rashee Rice from suspension, and he has been a walking touchdown.  And now LT Josh Simmons returns from a month absence due to personal reasons, so the Chiefs are fully healthy on offense with the exception or RB Isaiah Pacheco, who they can work around.

Year in and year out, the Chiefs have one of the best defenses in the NFL as long as Steve Spagnolo is calling the shots.  That is the case again this season as the Chiefs rank 4th in scoring defense at 17.7 points per game and 6th in total defense at 291.8 yards per game.  They are better than the Broncos on both sides of the football right now.

The Broncos are 8-2 this season despite trailing in all 10 games at some point.  They are one of the most fraudulent 8-2 teams in NFL history.  They have recent lucky, narrow wins over the Raiders by 3, the Texans by 3, the Giants by 1 and the Jets by 2 just in their last five games alone.  Those are some very bad teams, and they all had the Broncos on the ropes.  This is where their luck runs out.

The Broncos are a banged up, tired team playing for an 11th consecutive week to start the season.  They are without two key starters on defense in 2024 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Pat Surtain and leading tackler Alex Singleton (89 tackles), and both of Singleton's backups are on IR.  The Chiefs will throw all over this Denver defense not having to deal with Surtain.  Riley Moss is one of the most overrated, slowest corners in the NFL and will get burnt time and time again.

Bo Nix has been a major disappointment and has failed to make that Year 2 leap.  He put up just 10 points on the Raiders, 18 on the Texans and 13 on the Jets in recent weeks.  He is a liability for Sean Payton, one of the best play callers in the NFL who is just limited on what he can do with Nix, who averages just 6.1 yards per attempt.  And now the offense is banged up with RB JK Dobbins on IR.  Dobbins has been by far their most productive back with 772 rushing yards and 5.0 per carry.  It's a bigger loss for them than what is being factored into the line.  Bet the Chiefs Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati Bengals +5.5

I love the spot for the Bengals this week.  They are off their bye week and have everything in front of them.  This is a must-win game if they want to make the playoffs with Joe Burrow likely to return later on in the season.  They only trail the Steelers by two games for 1st place in the AFC North and can cut that lead to one with a win here.  They would also hold the tiebreaker having swept the Steelers as well.

Cincinnati has been competitive since trading for Joe Flacco.  All four games were decided by single-digits, including the last three by 5 points or fewer.  Flacco has led the Bengals to 33 points and 470 yards in a 2-point win over the Steelers, 38 points and 398 yards in a 1-point loss to the Jets and 42 points and 495 yards in a 5-point loss to the Bears.  He won't mind getting another shot at this Pittsburgh defense that he just lit up recently.

This Pittsburgh defense is overrated.  The Steelers rank 28th in total defense allowing 376 yards per game.  Injuries have hit their defense hard as they will be without LGB Cole Holcomb, LB Alex Highsmith, CB Darius Slay, FS Elliott and CB Trice Jr. this week.  They have eight defenders on IR alone.  They are getting old, and teams know they just have to stop TJ Watt and they are doing so by chipping him at the highest rate in the NFL.  The Bengals will deploy the same strategy.

The Steelers also rank just 29th in total offense at 280.7 yards per game.  They are getting outgained by nearly 100 yards per game as a team.  That's why they are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL right now and I keep looking to face them because they aren't as good as their 5-4 record would suggest.  I successfully faded them with the Chargers in a 25-10 loss in Los Angeles in primetime last week.  And I'm fading them again this week as Flacco and company have the goods to keep up with the Steelers in another shootout that will likely be decided by 5 points or fewer for a 4th consecutive week.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Packers/Giants OVER 43.5

Matt LaFleur has taken a ton of heat the last two weeks for poor offensive performance.  But his entire team and coaching staff have had his back, and I expect them to respond in a big way this week for LaFleur.  The offense in particular will shine for a number of reasons.

The biggest is the fact that the Giants have one of the worst defenses in the NFL in their current state.  They have allowed an average of 32.3 points per game and 401.3 yards per game in their last four games during their current 4-game losing streak.  They are decimated with injuries defensively playing without SS Nubin, LB Thibodeau, DE Nunez-Roches and LB Golston right now.  Two other starters in CB Adebo and LB Okereke are questionable, and they have 5 other defenders on IR.

The Packers got good news on the injury front on offense as Romeo Doubs and Matthew Golden are both likely back this week.  That will give Jordan Love his full compliment of weapons with the exception of TE Tucker Kraft and Jayden Reed, who are both on IR.  Josh Jacobs should have a massive game on the ground against a Giants defense that is allowing 187 rushing yards per game in their last four games.  Their 5.5 yards per carry allowed is the worst mark in the NFL.

Jameis Winston is an 'Over' quarterback.  He will try to make throws that most quarterbacks won't, and he will push the ball down the field every chance he gets.  That will lead to some big plays on offense but also to some catastrophic plays and possible defensive touchdowns, or at the very least set the Packers up for easy scores.

This is a very low total for a game involving the Giants right now.  The Giantsand their opponents have combined for 44 or more points in five consecutive games, including 51 or more in four of them.  The Packers will do the heavy lifting here similar to their 35-25 win at Pittsburgh in their last road game that saw 60 combined points.  In their road game prior, they beat the Cardinals 27-23 for 50 combined points.  Their offense just seems to play better when on the highway this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Chargers -2.5

The Chargers are one of the best, most underrated teams in the NFL.  I backed them last week as my 25* NBC SNF GOTY in their 25-10 win over the Steelers.  And I'm back on them this week for many of the same reasons.

Too much is being made of the offensive line injury to Joe Alt.  Not enough is being made of Justin Herbert being one of the best, most mobile QB's in the NFL and it just doesn't matter that much.  Especially since they traded for Trevor Penning from the Saints, and their backups in Pipkins and Hart are pretty good.  This is a loaded offense with playmakers in Gadsden, Allen, McConkey, Johnston and Vidal.  It's the best weapons Herbert has had with the Chargers.

This is also the best defense the Chargers have had in a long time.  They rank 8th in scoring defense at 20.3 points per game and 4th in total defense at 280.2 yards per game.  They are as healthy as they have been all season defensively and may be completely back to full strength this week if S Molden and CB Still play, who are both listed as questionable.  They have recently gotten DE Hand, LB Perryman and LB Mack back from injuries, and you would be hard-pressed to find a better defense than this one in its current state.

The current state is impressive.  In their last three games, the Chargers held the Vikings to 10 points and 164 total yards, the Titans to 6 offensive points and 206 total yards, and the Steelers to 10 points and 221 total yards.  Now they will shut down this banged up Jaguars offense this week.

The Jaguars just blew a 19-point 4th quarter lead to Davis Mills and the Houston Texans last week.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice, and I question if they'll be able to get back up off the mat for this game.  The Jaguars only managed 213 total yards while allowing 412 total yards to the Texans, getting outgained by 200 yards.

Injuries are mounting up for the Jaguars.  They are without their two best playmakers at receiver in WR Brian Thomas Jr. and WR Travis Hunter.  They are also without RT Anton Harrison and CB Jourdan Lewis.  This is a bad Jaguars defense as it is ranking 20th in scoring defense at 24.4 points per game and 23rd in total defense at 344.6 yards per game.  What this defense has given up in recent weeks is alarming.  The Jaguars allowed 36 points to the Texans, 29 to the Raiders and 35 to the Rams in their last three games.  

I love the fact that the Chargers have a bye on deck next week, so they will be 'all in' trying to get this win to go into their bye week on a positive note and right on the heels of the Denver Broncos for the AFC West title.  They could find themselves tied atop the division with the Broncos with a win and a Denver loss to Kansas City this week.

Since 2019, teams who blew a 14-plus point lead in the 4th quarter of their previous game are 5-13 SU & 6-12 ATS in their next game.  It has happened four times since Week 6 alone and those teams are 0-4 SU.  Jim Harbaugh is 26-8 SU & 24-9-1 ATS when playing in the Eastern or Central time zone as a head coach, including 17-3 SU & 15-5 ATS in the East.  The Chargers are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games following a primetime game.  Bet the Chargers Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bengals/Steelers OVER 49.5

The Bengals are a dead nuts OVER team.  Joe Flacco has revived the offense, but this is arguably the worst defense in the NFL in its current state.  The Bengals can't help but play in shootouts because they have to try and outscore their opponents.

The Bengals are 6-1-1 OVER in their last eight games finishing with 58 or more combined points in six of those eight games.  In their last three games with Flacco, they went for 64 combined points with the Steelers, 77 with the Jets and 89 with the Bears!  This total of 49.5 is very short for a game involving the Bengals right now.

Flacco has led the Bengals to 33 points and 470 yards against the Steelers, 38 points and 398 yards against the Jets and 42 points and 495 yards against the Bears.  He won't mind getting another shot at this Pittsburgh defense that he just lit up recently.

Aaron Rodgers won't mind facing this defense to get back on track, either.  The Bengals rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 33.2 points per game, dead last in total defense at 426.6 yards per game and 30th at 6.5 yards per play.  They are without their best pass rusher in DE Trey Hendrickson and without one of their best run stuffers in 1st-round pick DE Shemar Stewart, who was just placed on IR.

This Pittsburgh defense is overrated.  The Steelers rank 28th in total defense allowing 376 yards per game.  Injuries have hit their defense hard as they will be without LGB Cole Holcomb, LB Alex Highsmith, CB Darius Slay, FS Elliott and CB Trice Jr. this week.  They have eight defenders on IR alone.  They are getting old, and teams know they just have to stop TJ Watt and they are doing so by chipping him at the highest rate in the NFL.  The Bengals will deploy the same strategy.

No question Rodgers is on his last leg, but he should find plenty of success here against the Bengals again.  The Steelers went for 31 points and 396 total yards against Cincinnati in that first meeting.  I just don't see any way this isn't a shootout with how poor and banged up both of these defenses are right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Green Bay Packers -7

Note: I love a 6-Point Teaser on the Packers -1/Ravens -1.5 this week.

The Green Bay Packers will be highly motivated for a victory this week after suffering consecutive home losses to the Panthers by 3 and Eagles by 3.  Sometimes it does a team good to get away from the negative media at home and hit the road.  We last saw the Packers beating the Steelers 35-25 in their last road game.

Matt LaFleur has taken a ton of heat the last two weeks for poor offensive performance.  But his entire team and coaching staff have had his back, and I expect them to respond in a big way this week for LaFleur.  The offense in particular will shine for a number of reasons.

The biggest is the fact that the Giants have one of the worst defenses in the NFL in their current state.  They have allowed an average of 32.3 points per game and 401.3 yards per game in their last four games during their current 4-game losing streak.  They are decimated with injuries defensively playing without SS Nubin, LB Thibodeau, DE Nunez-Roches and LB Golston right now.  Two other starters in CB Adebo and LB Okereke are questionable, and they have 5 other defenders on IR.

The offense has been terrible without Jaxson Dart this season.  He is out with a concussion this week, and while Jameis Winston is a solid backup, he just doesn't have much to work witho.  Malik Nabers, Cam Skattebo and Beaux Collins are on IR, and the next-most productive receiver has been Darius Slayton, but he is out this week as well.  This is an embarrassing group of receivers he has to throw to, and there's going to be at least one or two Winston mistakes that cost their team.

The best unit on the field by far is this Green Bay defense.  The Packers rank 9th in scoring defense at 19.6 points per game, 5th in total defense at 287.2 yards per game and 2nd at 4.8 yards per play allowed.  Their starters are fully healthy and ready to dominate this week.

The Packers got good news on the injury front on offense as Romeo Doubs and Matthew Golden are both likely back this week.  That will give Jordan Love his full compliment of weapons with the exception of TE Tucker Kraft and Jayden Reed, who are both on IR.  Josh Jacobs should have a massive game on the ground against a Giants defense that is allowing 187 rushing yards per game in their last four games.  The Packers should continue to pile on the points late in this game to make a statement for LaFleur.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

20* Commanders/Dolphins NFL Spain Early ANNIHILATOR on Miami ML -125

The Dolphins are much healthier than the Commanders this week which is the biggest reason I am on them.  I also like what I've seen from the Dolphins in recent weeks playing hard for head coach Mike McDaniel.  The Commanders are a complete dumpster fire right now and it's only going to get worse before it gets better due to all their injuries.

The Dolphins are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall.  They beat the Falcons 34-10 on the road while holding the Falcons to just 213 total yards.  They did lose 28-6 to the Ravens at home, but that was a misleading final as they were -3 in turnovers and just struggled once they got deep in Baltimore territory.  They were only outgained by 6 yards by the Ravens and held them to 338 yards.  Last week, they dominated the Bills from the jump in a 30-13 win as 8-point home underdogs.

With their next three games against the Commanders, Saints and Jets, the Dolphins have a great opportunity to make a late-season surge and a run at the playoffs.  They will remain focused this week with this being a standalone game in Spain, and I fully expect them to handle their business.

The Commanders have been in a downward spiral since fumbling late in a 25-24 home loss to the Bears.  Jayden Daniels got hurt in his next game, a 44-22 road loss to the Cowboys.  Marcus Mariota has been no match for anyone.  The Commanders lost 28-7 at Kansas City in their next game.  Daniels returned in a 38-14 blowout home loss to the Seahawks, but they left him in the game late in the 4th quarter and he suffered another injury.

Last week, the decimated Commanders lost 44-22 at home to the Lions.  They came away from that game even more banged up.  Offensively, they are without QB Daniels, WR McClaurin, WR Burks, WR Brown and WR McCaffrey.  Mariota just doesn't have a chance with his lack of playmakers.

The Commanders came into the season with the oldest defense in the NFL and it's showing.  They are without DE Armstrong, DE Jean-Baptiste, DE Wise Jr., DE Jackson, CB Amos, FS Harris and CB Lattimore right now.  Then DT Payne got suspended for this game for throwing a punch at St. Brown of the Lions last week.  What a mess.

Washington ranks 29th in scoring defense at 28.0 points per game, 30th in total defense at 394.6 yards pre game and 31st at 6.6 yards per play.  Those numbers have skyrocketed in recent weeks due to these injuries.  They are allowing 38.5 points per game and 451.3 yards per game in their last four games.  Tua and the Dolphins will continue to light up this defense this week, and I trust the Dolphins to be able to handle Mariota and his lack of playmakers.  

Mariota is 0-7 SU in his last seven starts when listed as an underdog.  The Commanders are the first team to lose four straight games by 21 or more points in 23 years.  Oddsmakers haven't caught up to just how bad this team is right now.  We'll take advantage.  Bet the Dolphins on the Money Line Sunday.

20* Jets/Patriots AFC East No-Brainer on New England -10

The Patriots are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall as the most underrated team in the NFL this season.  They have a bye on deck next week, and with that in mind they will be 'all in' here looking forward to going into the bye week with positive momentum.

I fully expect the Patriots to make easy work of the short-handed Jets tonight.  The Jets traded away their two best players in DT Quinnen Williams and CB Sauce Gardner prior to the deadline.  They have stockpiled draft picks to set them up for the future with those two moves, but in the interim they are going to be one of the worst teams in the NFL.

The Jets were able to overcome those losses with a 27-20 home win over the lowly Cleveland Browns last week.  It was one of the most misleading wins of the season as the Jets benefited from a 99-yard KO return TD and a 74-yard punt return TD within one minute of each other.  The Jets were held to just 171 total yards by the Browns, and this is one of the worst offenses in the NFL in its current state.

The Jets will be without their best receiver in Garrett Wilson tonight.  Without him, they lack playmakers on the outside.  They won't be able to keep up with this high-powered Patriots offense and MVP candidate, Drake Maye.  

He leads a New England offense that ranks 8th in scoring at 26.5 points per game, 10th in total offense at 359.1 yards per game and 5th at 6.2 yards per play.  Maye is completing 71.7% of his passes with a 19-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.9 per attempt.  Going on the road and beating the Bucs who were off a bye 28-23 last week was mighty impressive.  The Patriots racked up 435 total yards on a very good Bucs defense, and Maye threw for 270 yards and 2 TD in the win.  Rookie RB Henderson rushed for 147 yards and 2 TD and should play a huge role tonight.

The Jets were already without Williams and Gardner due to those trades, but now they will be without fellow starting CB Azareye'h Thomas, and both DE Will McDonald and DT Harrison Phillips are questionable.  The Browns weren't able to take advantage of all these players gone, but the Bengals went for 38 points on them the game prior.  And the Patriots will be able to get what they want offensively here.

I love the matchup for the Patriots tonight, too.  The Jets need to be able to run the ball with Hall and Fields to be successful.  The Patriots will have none of it, forcing Fields to try and beat them with his arm, which he cannot.  New England ranks 1st in the NFL allowing just 79.2 rushing yards per game and 4th allowing 3.8 yards per carry.  This is a terrible matchup for the short-handed, terrible Jets tonight.  Bet the Patriots Thursday.

20* Eagles/Packers ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia +2.5

The Philadelphia Eagles are starting to look like the team that won the Super Bowl last season.  They predictably got off to a slow start with a bunch of narrow wins, and it eventually caught up to them.  But after an upset loss to the Giants, the Eagles have turned a corner.

They bounced back with a 28-22 win at Minnesota behind a breakout passing game from Jalen Hurts, who completed 19-of-23 passes for 326 yards and 3 TD.  They avenged that loss to New York with a 38-20 win over the Giants in the rematch.  This time, they got their running game going rushing for 276 yards.  Barkley rushed for 150 yards on 14 carries while Bigsby rushed for 104 yards on 9 carries.

Now the Eagles are coming off their bye week and primed for a big effort against the Packers.  The Eagles are about as healthy as they have been all season.  Their defense is basically fully healthy now with the return of LB Nolan Smith from IR.  This is one of the best defenses in the NFL when they are as healthy as they are right now.  All of their playmakers are healthy on offense, and the only loss there is C Cam Jurgens.

The Packers are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL going 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They are coming off a 16-13 home loss to the Panthers as 13.5-point favorites.  That's the same Panthers team that just lost 17-7 at home to the Saints this week.  They also struggled to put away Arizona by 4, Cincinnati by 9 and needed a big 2H comeback to beat the Steelers.  Before that, they tied the Cowboys and lost outright to the Browns as 7.5-point favorites.

This will be the Packers' toughest test of the season against an Eagles team that eliminated them in the playoffs with a 22-10 victory last year.  We saw the Eagles handle this situation well twice already, beating the Chiefs and Rams this season, two teams they also knocked out of the playoffs last year.  I think they enjoy their dominance of these teams and really get up for these games.

The Packers have a ton of injury questions coming into this one.  On offense, WR Matthew Golden, WR Dontayvion Wicks, WR Savion Williams and RT Zach Tom are all questionable.  They were already without WR Jayden Reed, and now TE Tucker Kraft suffered a season-ending injury against the Panthers last week.  They could not afford to lose Kraft, who has easily been their most productive player in the passing game consistently bailing out the offense with his ability to run after the catch.  Kraft has 32 receptions for a team-high 489 yards and 6 TD up to this point.  They could not afford to lose him, and I don't think they can beat the Eagles without him.  Bet the Eagles Monday.

25* NBC Sunday Night Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Chargers -2.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Chargers and 'sell high' on the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.  Both teams are coming off misleading results that have made this line lower than it should be.  The Chargers should be more than 2.5-point home favorites over the Steelers, and this is my favorite play of the entire season on the Sunday Night Football Stage as a result.

The Steelers are coming off a 27-20 home win over the Indianapolis Colts.  The Colts gift-wrapped them that win by committing 6 turnovers, yet it was still a one-score game.  The Colts outgained the Steelers 368 to 225, or by 143 total yards.  It was a very fluky result and one of those games where just everything goes the Steelers' way.  It happened earlier this season when the Patriots committed 5 turnovers against them in a one-score game.

It was criminal that the Chargers didn't cover as 9.5-point favorites against the Titans last week in a 27-20 win.  The Titans had a pick-6 and a punt return TD and didn't score a single TD on offense.  The Chargers outgained the Titans 343 to 206, or by 137 total yards.

Everyone is making a big deal about the Chargers losing Joe Alt to a season-ending injury.  But not enough is being made of the fact that the Chargers traded for Trevor Penning of the Saints to take his place.  That was a great coup and one that will pay big dividends for them moving forward.  I'm also not that concerned about the loss of RT Bobby Hart because Trey Pipkins III is back healthy.  The Chargers are going to be just fine along the offensive line, and Herbert's mobility is a big weapon to counter it.

The numbers show the Chargers are by far the superior team.  The Chargers are 5th in total offense at 374.6 yards per game and 10th at 6.0 yards per play while also ranking 6th in total defense at 286.8 yards per game and 11th at 5.4 yards per play.  The Chargers are outgaining opponents by 88 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play.

The Steelers rank 28th in total offense at 288.1 yards per game and 22nd at 5.4 yards per play.  They rank 30th in total defense at 383.8 yards per game and 25th at 5.8 yards per play.  They are getting outgained by 95 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play on the season.  The Chargers are the much superior team and it will show on the field Sunday night.  

Aaron Rodgers is 2-5 ATS in his last seven primetime games, including 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS as an underdog.  Justin Herbert is 5-0 ATS in his last five primetime games and 16-9 ATS overall, including 10-3 SU as a favorite in primetime games.  Bet the Chargers Sunday. Bet the Chargers Sunday.

15* Rams/49ers NFC West ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -3.5

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Rams this week.  They had their bye two weeks ago and returned from it with a 34-10 dismantling of the New Orleans Saints.  They outgained the Saints 438 to 224, or by 214 yards.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now, and they are ready for revenge on the 49ers from a fluky 26-23 (OT) loss in their first meeting on October 2nd.  They fumbled that game away going in for the winning score late.  They racked up 456 yards on the 49ers and should have won.

The 49ers are a tired, injury-ravaged team right now that just won't be able to put up much of a fight in the rematch.  They will be playing for a 10th consecutive week here as they have yet to have their bye week.  They are without Brock Purdy, Rickey Pearsall, Brandon Aiyuk and could be without G Ben Bartch on offense.  They are without Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Yetur Gross-Matos and have another four starters listed as questionable on defense.  Their front seven in particular is in shambles.  The 49ers rank dead last in pressure rate and 2nd-to-last in sacks since losing Bosa.

The fatigue fact is amplified after consecutive long road trips to Houston in a 26-15 loss and New York in a 34-24 win over the equally injury-ravaged Giants.  They had to fly across country and won't have had much time to prepare for the Rams, who were at home last week and will have a short trip to Santa Clara for this one.

The Rams are legit one of the best teams in the NFL as they are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS this season and even their two losses were fluky.  One was that loss to the 49ers where they had 456 yards and fumbled it away, and the other was a blown 26-7 lead on the road to the Eagles where they had their game-winning FG blocked at the buzzer.

The Rams have rebounded nicely from that loss to the 49ers going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with a 14-point win at Baltimore, a 28-point win at Jacksonville and a 24-point home win over the Saints.  You could make the argument the Rams are the best team in the NFL when you look at the numbers.  They are 7th in total offense at 369.9 yards per game and 9th at 6.0 yards per play, while ranking 10th in total defense at 302.9 yards per game and 5th at 5.0 yards per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 67 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play.

The 49ers have been winning with smoke and mirrors as they are actually getting outgained by 0.1 yards per play.  Four of their six wins came by 5 points or fewer, while each of their last two losses came by double-digits to Houston and Tampa Bay.  Their luck runs out this week against a Rams team that wants it more and is the much more rested, healthy and better team.  

The 49ers are 1-14 ATS in their last 15 games following a win.  The Rams are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 division games when playing in the 2nd meeting of the season on the road.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Lions -8

I love the spot for the Detroit Lions this week.  The Lions are a perfect 12-0 SU & 12-0 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss.  They will be extra motivated this week for revenge after losing to the Commanders in the playoffs last year.  Detroit is 20-5 SU & 19-6 ATS since 2023 when revenging a defeat.  The Lions won't mind kicking the Commanders while they are down this week.

And boy are the Commanders down in the dumps.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall getting upset by the Bears at home, losing by 22 in Dallas, losing by 21 in Kansas City and losing by 24 at home to Seattle last week.  Head coach Dan Quinn leaving Jayden Daniels in to suffer an injury late in a blowout to Seattle might have been the final straw.

The Commanders are a tired, injury-ravaged team that will be playing for a 10th consecutive week as they have yet to have their bye week.  They are also without their best WR in Terry McClaurin and two more WR's in Noah Brown and Luke McCaffrey on offense, giving Marcus Mariota almost no shot of being successful on offense.

The defense is one of the oldest units in the league and extremely slow.  That defense is missing four pass-rushers who are on IR right now in Armstrong, Wise Jr., Jackson and Jean-Baptiste.  It is also down a starting CB in Marshon Lattimore, while FS Quan Martin, backup FS Tyler Owens and DT Eddie Goldman are all questionable.  The Commanders are a complete mash unit right now everywhere, giving them little to no chance of keeping this game competitive.

The Lions are coming off a misleading 27-24 loss to the Minnesota Vikings last week.  They held the Vikings to just 258 total yards a week after holding the Bucs to 251 total yards in a 24-9 win.  The problem was losing starting tackles Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell to injuries during that game that had their offense unable to handle Minnesota's blitz-happy scheme.

Well, the Lions got good news on the injury front as both Decker and Sewell practiced this week and should be good to go.  This Washington defense isn't capable of creating the kind of pressure that Minnesota did, and Jared Goff should have a clean pocket to pick it apart.  The Commanders rank 22nd in scoring defense at 26.2 points per game, 28th in total defense at 377.8 yards per game and 30th at 6.4 yards per play.  

Opponents have torched the Commanders for 33.8 points per game and 410 yards per game during their current four-game winning streak. You can just imagine what this high-powered Lions offense is going to do to them this week.  The Lions are 2nd in scoring offense at 29.9 points per game and should get whatever they want.  Detroit also has one of the most improved defenses in the NFL.  They rank 8th in total defense at 294.8 yards per game and 8th at 5.3 yards per play.  Detroit just had a bye two weeks ago and is the much fresher, healthier, better team.  Bet the Lions Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Carolina Panthers -5.5

The Panthers are one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season going 5-4 despite being an underdog in all nine games.  Oddsmakers continue to not adjust enough for how improved this team is, and you're going to hear a lot about how they can't cover as a favorite this week.  But these aren't your old Panthers.

Carolina is favored by 5.5 points for good reason this week as I fully expect them to win by a TD or more.  The Panthers are facing arguably the worst team in the NFL in their current state in the New Orleans Saints, who pretty much showed they were giving up on their season by trading away two of their best players at the trade deadline in LT Trevor Penning to the Chargers and WR Rasheed Shaheed to the Seahawks.

The Saints are 1-8 this season and have rarely been competitive here of late.  Five of their last six losses have come by double-digits, so they are getting blown out on the regular.  They are a tired team playing for a 10th consecutive week, and they will now have a lot of travel in between their 34-10 loss in Los Angeles to the Rams over the weekend.  They were outgained 438 to 224 by the Rams, or by 214 total yards.

Tyler Shough made his first career start against the Rams and was terrible, and he's a downgrade from Spencer Rattler in my opinion.  He is set up to fail after trading away Shaheed and Penning.  The Saints will essentially be without both starting tackles with the loss of Penning and now RT Taliese Fuaga is out this week.  They also have four other offensive linemen on IR, and this may be the worst offense in the NFL moving forward.

The Saints are 31st in scoring offense at 15.3 points per game, 29th in total offense at 287.1 yards per game and 30th at 4.9 yards per play.  They are 24th in scoring defense at 27.0 points per game, 18th at 333.3 yards per game and 12th at 5.5 yards per play.  They are getting outscored by 11.7 points per game and outgained by 50 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play.

The Panthers are fully healthy on offense with the exception of RG.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games with Bryce Young at QB.  He has underrated weapons at receiver and a two-headed monster at RB in Dowdle and Hubbard.  This is one of the most underrated offenses in the NFL.

The Panthers also have a vastly improved defense ranking 13th in total defense this season at 316.6 yards per game.  They shut out the Falcons, held the Jets to 6 and held the Packers to 13 points.  They are also fully healthy on defense, and overall one of the most healthy teams in the NFL right now which is key this late in the season.

The Panthers are 3-1 SU & 3-1 TS at home this season playing much better on their home turf.  Their lone loss was with Andy Dalton at QB to a pissed off Buffalo Bills team coming off their bye week and two consecutive losses.  Dalton was playing with a broken thumb to boot.

Adding to the Saints' fatigue is the fact that their defense was on the field for 44 minutes agains the Rams.  They only possessed the ball for 16 minutes and 40 plays.  Teams coming off a game with 40 offensive plays or fewer have gone 4-11 SU since 2014, including 1-10 SU as underdogs.  The Saints are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog of 14 points or less.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tampa Bay Bucs -2.5

I love the spot for the Tampa Bay Bucs.  They are coming off a much-needed bye week to get healthier.  They worked wonders to get to 6-2 this season as Baker Mayfield made his case for MVP by leading several game-winning drives.  And now they come out of the bye much healthier and ready to knock off the New England Patriots.

The Patriots are running on fumes right now playing for a 10th consecutive week as they have yet to have their bye.  They were fortunate to escape with a 24-23 home win over the Falcons last week after a missed XP by Atlanta late.  Their luck runs out this week.  They have benefited from playing the easiest schedule in the NFL to this point.

A tired New England team will now have to battle the heat in Tampa Bay with temps in the 80's for this one.  Injuries are starting to mount up too as they will be without leading rusher Rhamondre Stevenson (279 yards, 3 TD) and leading TD receiver Kayshon Boutte (431 yards, 5 TD).  They will also be without second-leading tackler Christian Ellis (53 tackles).

The Bucks have been without RT Luke Goedeke and RG Luke Haggard.  Both returned to practice this week and both could return, which would give them their entire starting offensive line back.  The bye week was good for Emeka Egbuka (34 receptions, 562 yards, 5 TD) as well as he was battling a hamstring injury the last few games going into it.  And this Tampa Bay defense will be as healthy as it has been all season this week.

Teams who are off a bye against a team that hasn't had their bye week yet are 6-0 SU this season with all six wins coming by 9 points or more.  Baker Mayfield is 4-0 SU as a favorite off a bye in his career.  The Patriots have won 6 consecutive games, and teams on a 6-plus game winning streak in Week 10 or later when listed as an underdog are 28-42-1 ATS.  The Bucs are favored for good reason and should be favored by more given the favorable spot for them.  Bet the Bucs Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Baltimore Ravens -3.5

The Ravens released their injury report this week and nobody was on it.  The go from one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the NFL to the healthiest, and now I have them as the best team in the NFL in their current state.  I've backed them with success the last two weeks since returning from their bye healthy, and I'm not about to jump off them now.

Even without Lamar Jackson the Ravens blasted the Bears 30-16 at home two weeks ago off their bye.  They got Jackson back on Thursday in their next game, and he led them to a 28-6 win over the Dolphins while throwing 4 TD passes with only 5 incompletions.  Jackson is completing 72.9% of his passes with a 14-to-1 TD/INT ratio on the season.  Now the Ravens are on extra rest here after playing last Thursday and primed for a big effort.

The Minnesota Vikings are in the ultimate letdown spot.  They shocked the Lions 27-24 as 9.5-point road underdogs last week.  It was a fluky result as the Vikings managed just 258 total yards and were outgained by 60 yards by the Lions.  JJ McCarthy is not their savior.  He went 14-of-25 passing for 143 yards, while rushing for just 12 yards on 9 carries in the win.  McCarthy isn't going to be able to match Jackson score for score in this one as it's a huge mismatch at the QB position.

Jackson thrives against the blitz, and the Vikings are one of the most blitz-happy teams in the NFL with Brian Flores as their coordinator.  The Vikings have really been leaking oil defensively in recent weeks against other QB's like Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert that own the blitz.  They allowed 28 points and 316 passing yards to the Eagles and 37 points and 419 total yards to the Chargers before giving up 24 points to the Lions, who suffered multiple O-Line injuries throughout that game that disrupted their rhythm.  The Ravens have one of the best O-Lines in the NFL.

Lamar Jackson is 37-8 SU when facing a head coach for the first time like he will be Kevin O'Connell this week.  Jackson is 24-3 SU against the NFC as a starting QB for the Ravens.  The Vikings are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after facing the Lions under O'Connell, failing to cover the spread by an average of 11.9 points per game.  Teams playing the 2nd of back-to-back road games are 30-12 SU & 29-13 ATS since 2018.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Patriots/Bucs OVER 47.5

This game really sets up for an OVER.  We have two of the top MVP candidates at QB in Baker Mayfield and Drake Maye up against two poor pass defenses.  And both defenses are elite against the run, so I don't expect either offense to try to run the football much.  The ball will be in the air a lot, which favors the OVER.

Maye leads a Patriots offense that ranks 7th in scoring at 26.3 points per game and 5th at 6.1 yards per play.  He is completing 74.1% of his passes for 2,285 yards with a 17-to-4 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 270 yards and two scores on the ground.  He'll be up against a Bucs defense that ranks 22nd against the pass.

Mayfield leads a Bucs offense that ranks 15th in scoring at 24.6 points per game.  He is completing 63.9% of his passes for 1,919 yards with a 13-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 158 yards.  He is back healthy now and wasn't running as much leading into a much-needed bye last week.  He should use his legs more moving forward, which is a big weapon of his to move the chains.  He'll be up against a Patriots defense that ranks 19th against the pass and 25th allowing 7.0 per attempt.

The Bucks will be without LB Haason Reddick and his backup in Markees Watts.  They were already without Calijah Kancey and really lack a pass rush right now.  The Patriots lost LB Christian Elliss to injury last week and he is out for this one.  I expect both offenses to have their way with these defenses, especially given the forecast.  

Temps will be in the 80's with single-digit winds and only a 25% chance of rain.  The OVER is 3-0 in Bucs three home games this season finishing with 49, 56 and 56 combined points.  The Patriots are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Bears -4

I love the spot for the Chicago Bears this week.  They are back home after consecutive road games against the Ravens and Bengals and taking a step down in class here against the Giants.  They have played five of their first eight games on the road.  They are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS at home this season with their lone loss coming back in Week 1 against the Vikings after blowing a double-digit 4th quarter lead.  They have since beaten the Cowboys by 17 and the Saints by 12 at home.

While the Bears are the fresher, healthier team after already having their bye week, the Giants will be playing for a 10th consecutive week and are running on fumes right now.  They are losing bodies left and right and are one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the NFL.  This is much more of a play against the Giants than it is a play on the Bears.

The Giants haven't recovered from blowing a 19-0 lead over the Broncos to lose in the 4th quarter.  They came back and lost 38-20 on the road to the Eagles before falling 34-24 to an equally injury-ravaged 49ers team at home last week.  Their defense is in shambles, allowing an average of 35 points per game in their last three games.

It's easy to see why as the Giants are without CB Paulson Adebo, LB Chauncey Golston, and several other key depth pieces.  The offense isn't any healthier.  The Giants will be without WR Malik Nabers, WR Beaux Collins, RB Cam Skattebo, C John Michael Schmitz Jr and K Graham Gano.  They could also be without RT Jermain Eluemunor, who is questionable.

The Giants are 0-5 SU on the road this season.  The Bears are basically fully healthy on offense, and while they are missing four starters on defense in all, they are still in much better shape than the Giants.  I look for them to make easy work of them here.

The forecast is calling for temps in the 30's, 25 MPH sustained winds and a sloppy field.  The team that runs the football better is going to have the advantage, and that is the Bears.  They will have their full compliment of RB's available and have the much better run-blocking O-Line and play-caller in Ben Johnson.  This is where the Giants will really miss Skattebo getting those tough yards.

The Giants rank 19th averaging 4.2 yards per carry while the Bears rank 2nd overall in rushing at 144.4 yards per game and 6th at 4.9 yards per rush.  The biggest weakness of the Giants is stopping the run.  They rank 32nd allowing 150 rushing yards per game and 32nd allowing 5.5 yards per carry.  They have allowed an average of 192.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

15* Falcons/Colts NFL Berlin Early ANNIHILATOR on Indianapolis -6

I love the spot for the Indianapolis Colts.  They are coming off a humbling, misleading loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in which they gave the game away by committing six turnovers.  They still only lost by 7 despite the 6 turnovers, a sign of a great team.  They outgained the Steelers 368 to 225, or by 143 total yards.  It was a very fluky result.

The Colts are very close to being undefeated this season.  Their other loss to the Rams was fluky as well as they had two TD's overturned, one by penalty and one by dropping the ball before the end zone.  The Rams still needed a game-winning TD in the final two minutes to win by 7 in Los Angeles.  The Colts are winning by blowout week after week, outscoring opponents by 12.1 points per game on the season.  They will get back to their dominant selves this week in Berlin.

The Colts are a complete team other than injuries in their secondary.  Well, they addressed that matter by trading two first-round picks for CB Sauce Gardner, who is easily a Top 2 CB in the league right alongside Patrick Surtain of the Broncos.  Gardner will come in handy particularly in this game matching up with Drake London of the Falcons.  Stop London and you stop this Atlanta passing attack as they are so reliant on him.

The Falcons are a mess right now.  They have lost three in a row with a 10-point loss at San Francisco, a 24-point home loss to Miami and a 1-point road loss at New England. They trailed the Patriots by 14 points last week before a flurry of one-handed catches by London got them back in it.  They missed the potential tying extra point and since cut their kicker.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

The Falcons are decimated by injuries along their offensive line right now.  They are without three starters in RT Kaleb McGary, his replacement in Storm Norton, and LG Matthew Bergeron.  Another starter in Chris Linsdtrom is questionable. Michael Penix does not deal well with pressure, and he will be under duress all game.  Penix is actually 0-5 SU in outdoor games in his career as well.  That includes the loss to New England, the 10-point loss to the 49ers and the 30-point loss to the Panthers earlier this season.

I love the matchup for the Colts.  Both teams rely heavily on their running game with the Jonathan Stewart for the Colts and Bijon Robinson and Tyler Algier for the Falcons.  The Colts have one of the best offensive lines in the league, while the Falcons have one of the worst in their current state.  The Falcons rank 23rd allowing 124.4 rushing yards per game and 20th at 4.4 per carry.  The Colts rank 4th allowing just 87 rushing yards per game and 11th at 4.0 per carry.

Favorites are 39-14-1 SU & 34-20 ATS in International games, including 29-9-1 SU & 24-15 ATS as a favorite of a FG or more.  Teams coming off a SU loss as a favorite before an International game are 15-9 ATS, including 2-0 ATS this season.  Bet the Colts Sunday morning in Berlin.

20* Raiders/Broncos AFC West No-Brainer on Denver -8.5

Note: I really like a 6-point teaser with the Broncos -2.5/Eagles +8.5.  The Lions -2.5 or better is another good option to pair with the Broncos.

Teams on short rest off an OT game are 26-47 SU & 23-47-3 ATS over the last 20 years.  Road teams in this spot are 9-27 SU & 10-25-1 ATS.  Worse yet, those same overtime teams when playing on Thursday night football are 6-21 SU & 4-23 ATS over the last 20 years.

That's what the Las Vegas Raiders are up against tonight.  They are coming off a gut-wrenching 30-29 OT loss to the Jaguars last week in which their defense was on the field basically the entire 2H.  That game was their 'last stand', and they missed the potential game-winning 2-point conversion in OT.  It's going to be hard for them to get back up off the mat after that defeat.  

The Raiders were sellers at the trade deadline sending their best receiver in Jakobi Myers to the Jaguars.  This is likely the worst WR room in the NFL now and it's no wonder Geno Smith has looked like a shell of his former self all season.  The Raiders rank 29th in scoring at 16.5 points per game and 30th in total offense at 283.2 yards per game.  It's not going to get any better without Myers moving forward.

Geno is playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL to boot.  That offensive line will not hold up tonight against the best pass rush in the NFL in the Broncos, who lead the NFL with 40 sacks and are also 1st in allowing the fewest sacks (9) in the league.  Denver ranks 4th in scoring defense at 18.4 points per game, 3rd in total defense at 279.9 yards per game and 1st at 4.8 yards per play.

This tired Raiders defense will not be able to contain this Denver offense.  This Raiders D was on the field for 76 plays against the Jaguars on Sunday.  The Raiders have allowed 25 or more points in five of their last six games with the only exception coming against the lowly Titans.  They have allowed 30 or more points in four of their last six games.  Denver should easily win this game by double-digits, just as it did in both meetings last season.  Bet the Broncos Thursday.

20* Cardinals/Cowboys ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 51.5

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team and really should be 8-0 to the OVER this season instead of 6-2.  They combined with the Eagles for 41 points in the 1st Half before a lightning delay took all of the wind out of the sails of the offenses.  They combined for 38 points in the 1st Half with the Bears but the Cowboys suffered a ton of injuries on offense in that game and Dak Prescott was pulled late.

In their six OVERS, the Cowboys went for 59 combined points with the Jets, 77 combined points with the Giants, 80 combined points with the Packers, 57 combined points with the Panthers, 66 combined points with the Commanders and 68 combined points with the Broncos to sail OVER those totals.

Dallas ranks 2nd in scoring offense at 30.8 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 384.1 yards per game and 7th at 6.1 yards per play.  What makes this even more impressive is the fact that the Cowboys have been playing most of the season without multiple starting offensive linemen, WR CeeDee Lamb and WR/KR KaVontae Turpin.  Well, the Cowboys are now as healthy as they have been all season on offense with Lamb and Turpin back and all five starting offensive linemen expected to play.

What really makes the Cowboys a dead nuts OVER team is their defense, which cannot stop anyone.  The Cowboys rank 31st in scoring defense allowing 31.2 points per game, 31st in total defense allowing 404.6 yards per game and 32nd allowing 6.4 yards per play.  They are without FS Hooker, CB Diggs, LB Overshown, S Clark, LB Sanborn and S WIlson.  Fellow S Thomas and CB Revel are questionable.  What a mess this defense is.

The Cowboys allowed 30 points to Bryce Young and the Panthers, 37 to Russell Wilson and the Giants, 31 to Caleb Williams and the Bears, 40 to the Packers, and 44 to Bo Nix and the Broncos to name a few.  Dallas' three home games in perfect conditions in the dome this season went for 77 combined points with the Giants, 80 with the Packers and 66 to the Commanders.  The OVER is now 10-3 in Cowboys last 13 home games.

Arizona is 3-0 OVER in its last three games overall.  Jacoby Brissett took over for an injured Kyler Murray and kept the Cardinals competitive, losing 31-27 at Indianapolis for 58 combined points and 27-23 at home to Green Bay for 50 combined points.  Brissett led the Cardinals to 400 total yards against the Colts and 330 total yards against the Packers.  He is likely to get the start again this week after practicing with the first-team on Friday, and I like the OVER either way.

The Cardinals also have a pitiful defense.  They were diced up for 31 points by the Colts and 27 by the Packers the last two weeks.  Injuries are a big reason the Cardinals have regressed defensively.  CB Will Johnson, CB Garrett Williams, LB BJ Julari, DL Walter Nolen were all limited in practice on Friday and are highly questionable.  The Cowboys will dice them up, and the books just can't set these Dallas totals high enough.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.