20* UConn/Michigan NCAA Championship No-Brainer on UConn +7

Dan Hurley is 21-4 ATS as a head coach in the NCAA Tournament.  That includes a perfect 15-0 ATS in the Round of 32 or later.  The Huskies are 15-1 SU in non-conference games this season with their only loss coming to Arizona by 4.  They are 11-0 SU in neutral site games this season.

Since the 2023 NCAA Tournament, UConn has gone 18-1 ATS with its only non-cover coming against Furman in the first round this year.  Since 2009, the Huskies are 34-7 ATS in all NCAA Tournament games.  This is a winning program, and at some point you have to give Dan Hurley his respect.  I think the Huskies come out and earn it again tonight playing with a big chip on their shoulder that they are once again underdogs.

Michigan has been very 3-point reliant this tournament.  The Wolverines have managed to shoot 44.4% or better from 3 in four of their five NCAA Tournament games and are shooting 45% for the entire tournament thus far.  I have to think they are due some negative shooting regression in this one.

The Wolverines suffered a big blow when their best player in Yaxel Leneborg (15.1 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.2 BPG) suffered a leg injury against Arizona and only played 15 minutes.  He won't be anywhere near 100% for this game just two days later.  That injury really gives UConn a great shot of pulling off the upset tonight.  Bet UConn Monday.

20* Arizona/Michigan Final 4 No-Brainer on Arizona ML +105

Arizona is the best team in the country.  The Wildcats are 36-2 this season with their only losses coming on the road at Kansas by 4 and to Texas Tech on OT back when they had JT Toppin.  The Wildcats rank 4th in adjusted offense and 2nd in adjusted defense with zero weaknesses.

Arizona is 17-0 SU & 12-5 ATS in non-conference games this season.  They have wins over Florida, UCLA, UConn, Auburn, Alabama, Arkansas and Purdue in the non-conference.  They have made easy work of their first four NCAA Tournament opponents beating LIU by 34, Utah State by 12, Arkansas by 21 and Purdue by 15.

That win over Purdue is significant considering Michigan lost by 8 to Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament.  No question the Wolverines are right up there with Arizona as the 2nd-best team in the country in my opinion, but they have had a much easier path to the Final 4.  They got to face short-handed Alabama and 6th seed Tennessee in their last two games.  This will be far and away their toughest game of the tournament.

Arizona has the size that can counter Michigan, as the Wolverines have enjoyed a size advantage against almost everyone.  I think Arizona has the better guards as well.  The Wildcats don't rely on the 3-pointer to score, while Michigan does.  Arizona is 18th in the country defending the 3-pointer (30.4%).  They are elite in transition D, and Michigan relies on getting easy points in transition, which won't be available against Arizona.  I also expect Michigan to cool off from 3 after shooting 45% from deep in the tournament thus far.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Arizona on the Money Line Saturday.

20* NIT TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Tulsa/New Mexico OVER 160.5

Tulsa is a dead nuts OVER team going 23-11 OVER in all games this season.  The Golden Hurricane rank 36th in adjusted offense and 139th in adjusted defense.  They rank 25th in effective FG percentage offense, 5th in 3-point percentage (38.9%) and 17th in FT percentage (78%).

New Mexico is also a dead nuts OVER team going 23-12 OVER in all games this season.  The Lobos rank 48th in adjusted tempo, 56th in adjusted offense and 50th in 3-point percentage (36.2%).  They play fast, efficient offense and this game shapes up as a shootout.

A big reason both of these teams have made it this far in the NIT is because both are fully healthy and have all guys on deck.  Both teams have their top seven scorers playing.  Tulsa just got back leading scorer David Green (15.7 PPG) after sitting out the first two NIT games, but with him back in the lineup they beat Wichita State 83-79 for 162 combined points last game.

Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis is a shooter-friendly venue.  Look for both teams to light it up tonight in this NIT showdown.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* UConn/Duke Elite 8 No-Brainer on UConn +5.5

Dan Hurley is 19-4 ATS as a head coach in the NCAA Tournament.  That includes a perfect 13-0 ATS in the Round of 32 or later.  The Huskies are 13-1 SU in non-conference games this season with their only loss coming to the best team in the country in Arizona by 4.  They are 9-0 SU in neutral site games this season.

Duke is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Blue Devils beat FSU by 1, were fortunate to cover in a 12-point win over Clemson, beat Virginia by 4 and then beat Siena by 6 as 28.5-point favorites in the Round of 64.  The Blue Devils trailed most that game and it wasn't decided until the final seconds.  That was a Siena team that played all 5 starters 40 minutes, too.

The Duke Blue Devils have been tied or trailing with 15 minutes remaining in each of their three NCAA Tournament games.  Their game against TCU was very misleading, and they needed a late surge to put away St. John's by 5 as 6.5-point favorites.  Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngonba are back, but neither are 100%.

Tarris Reed is a monster for UConn and gives them a great chance to hold up inside against Boozer.  Alex Karaban is a senior who is playing his best basketball.  Solo Ball finally got a few shots to fall against Michigan State, and Mullins and Demary Jr. are shooters to complement those other three.  I simply trust Dan Hurley to make the proper adjustments and keep his team in this game for 40 minutes.  I believe Duke is grossly overvalued, and it has shown dating back to the ACC Tournament.  Bet UConn Sunday.

20* Purdue/Arizona Elite 8 No-Brainer on Arizona -6

Arizona is the best team in the country.  The Wildcats are 35-2 this season with their only losses coming on the road at Kansas by 4 and to Texas Tech on OT back when they had JT Toppin.  The Wildcats rank 4th in adjusted offense and 3rd in adjusted defense with zero weaknesses.

Arizona is 14-0 SU & 11-5 ATS in none-conference games this season.  They have wins over FLorida, UCLA, UConn, Auburn and Alabama in the non-conference.  They have made easy work of their first three NCAA Tournament opponents beating LIU by 34, Utah state by 12 and Arkansas by 21.

Purdue has been fortunate to advance this far.  After a dominant win over lowly Queens, they were life and death with both Miami and Texas the last two rounds.  They don't have what it takes to hang with Arizona, especially on defense.

The weakness of the Boilermakers is defense where they rank 36th in adjusted defense and 234th in effective FG percentage defense.  Arizona ranks 1st in effective FG percentage defense to compare.  Purdue's guards are terrible at staying in front of opposing guards with a big lack of athleticism from Smith and Loyer.  Burries and Bradley will torch them time and time again.

Trey Kaufman-Renn will be a non-factor against these Arizona bigs, who will shut him down.  The same can be said for Oscar Cluff, who doesn't have a very polished offensive game.  Arizona's big men will dominate, too, and they are just better everywhere.  This will also feel like a home game for Arizona being played in San Jose.

Purdue lost 81-58 to Big 12 opponent Iowa State in the non-conference, and that was a home game to boot.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

20* Iowa/Illinois Elite 8 No-Brainer on Illinois -6.5

The Illinois Fighting Illini have only lost one game since December 22nd that didn't go to OT, and that was to Michigan, arguably the best team in the country.  They beat Iowa 75-69 on the road in their lone meeting this season.  That was a 17-point game in the 2H and a misleading final as the Fighting Illini dominated.

Iowa's run comes to an end here.  The Hawkeyes have been very fortunate in close games with all three games against Clemson, Florida and Nebraska going down to the wire.  The Hawkeyes never led against Nebraska until there were under two minutes remaining as the Huskers went cold in the final five minutes.

This is a much tougher challenge for Iowa against Illinois.  The Fighting Illini were in control of each of their first three games of the NCAA Tournament with a 35-point win over Penn, a 21-point win over VCU and a 10-point win over Houston in what was basically a home game for the Cougars being played in Houston.  The Fighting Illini led by double-digits throughout.

Illinois ranks 2nd in adjusted offense and 21st in adjusted defense.  Iowa ranks 19th in adjusted offense and 32nd in adjusted defense.  The Fighting Illini are better everywhere, and their ability to go 5 out with 5 3-point shooters on the court at the same time makes them a matchup nightmare for everyone, not just Iowa.  They are also the much better defensive team in this game.  Bet Illinois Saturday.

20* NCAA Tournament TOTAL OF THE WEEK on St. John's/Duke UNDER 142.5

Two of the best defensive teams in the country square off in the Sweet 16 when Duke takes on St. John's.  Duke ranks 1st in adjusted defense while St. John's ranks 8th.  Duke also ranks 281st in adjusted tempo and will control the tempo in this one.

Both teams are elite at forcing opponents to beat them from the outside or from the midrange without giving up anything at the rim.  And with Duke's most important defender in C Patrick Ngonba Jr. back from injury, they will be even stronger inside.  Both teams struggle shooting the 3-pointers as St. John's ranks 218th in the country at 33.2% and Duke is 142nd at 34.6%.  Duke is even worse off offensively now without Caleb Foster (8.5 PPG, 40.2% 3-pointers), their best 3-point shooter.

The Red Storm are 9-3 UNDER in their last 12 games overall.  They went for 124 combined points with UConn in the Big East Championship Game, 132 combined points with Northern Iowa in their NCAA Tournament opener and 132 combined points with Kansas last round.  This total of 142.5 is very high for a game involving St. John's right now.

Duke is 24-12 UNDER in all games this season largely due to that top-ranked defense and playing at such a slow tempo.  The Blue Devils are 12-5 UNDER in their last 17 games with 139 or fewer combined points in 12 of those 17 games.  This total of 142.5 is also too high for a game involving Duke right now.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas +8.5

John Calipari is 8-0 ATS in his last eight NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.  With Kentucky and Arkansas, Calipari is 12-0 ATS as an underdog in the NCAA Tournament or SEC Tournament.  I love backing Calipari in this role as the hunter, and hate backing him in the big favorite role as the hunted.

Arkansas is 7-0 SU in its last seven games overall.  Teams riding a 6-plus game winning streak entering the Sweet 16 as underdogs have gone 41-16-2 ATS since 2005 and 30-7 ATS since 2011.  The value is clearly there to pull the trigger on Arkansas.

Arkansas has wins over Texas, Missouri and Vanderbilt during this stretch.  They beat Hawaii by 19 and High Point by 6 to open the Big Dance.  I think that close result against High Point is keeping people off Arkansas, but High Point beat Wisconsin the game prior and was the most impressive mid major in the NCAA Tournament in my opinion.

Arizona has won 11 consecutive games with some good fortune in close games.  The Wildcats have five wins by 7 points or fewer during this stretch, a 10-point win over Colorado and a 12-point win over Utah State last round.  That was a 4-point game late before Arizona pulled away at the foul line in the final seconds for a 12-point victory over the Aggies.

Arkansas has the athletes and the heigh to match up with Arizona.  The Wildcats rank 7th in the country in average height and have had the advantage inside against almost everyone.  That advantage is much less here against Arkansas, which ranks 34th in average height and has elite wing span, most notably from F Trevon Brazile (13.2 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 1.7 BPG) and Malique Ewin (9.9 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.1 BPG).  And Nick Pringle (4.6 PPG, 3.9 RPG) should be back for this game after sitting out the first two games with a hamstring injury to give Arkansas some depth.

I will take Arkansas' guards over Arizona's guards all day, and guards are what wins in the NCAA Tournament.  Darius Acuff Jr. (23.3 PPG, 6.5 APG, 44.6% 3-pointers is the best offensive player in the country.  He has scored at least 24 points in six consecutive games and has upped his game when his teams needs him most.  Meleek Thomas (15.6 PPG, 42% 3-pointers) and Billy Richmond (11.1 PPG) both get slept on due to what Acuff is doing.

This is the largest underdog role for John Calipari in 85 NCAA Tournament games with his biggest coming as a +7.5 dog with UMass way back in 1996.  Tommy Lloyd has never been past the Sweet 16 as a head coach, going 0-3 SU in three previous tries with two outright losses as a favorite.  This is a game the Razorbacks are clearly capable of winning outright.  I think they're the most underrated team left in the Big Dance.  Bet Arkansas Thursday.

20* George Washington/New Mexico NIT No-Brainer on OVER 161.5

New Mexico is a dead nuts OVER team going 23-10 OVER in all games this season including 12-5 OVER in all home games.  The Lobos rank 48th in adjusted tempo and 59th in adjusted offense.  They are coming off a 107-83 home win over Sam Houston State for 190 combined points.  They are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall.

George Washington also profiles as an OVER team ranking 83rd in adjusted tempo, 58th in adjusted offense and 140th in adjusted defense.  The Revolutionaries went for 169 combined points with St. Louis in the Atlantic 10 Tournament and 157 with Utah Valley in the NIT opener.  They will get in another shootout with the Lobos tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* UNLV/Tulsa NIT No-Brainer on OVER 160.5

Tulsa is a dead nuts OVER team going 22-10 OVER in all games including 11-3 OVER in home games.  The Golden Hurricane rank 140th in adjusted tempo, 34th in adjusted offense and 146th in adjusted defense.  They rank 23rd in effective FG percentage on offense and 5th in 3-point percentage (39%) as they have elite shooters across the board.

UNLV is a dead nuts OVER team going 20-13 OVER in all games this season including 10-4 OVER in its last 14 games overall.  The Rebels rank 49th in adjusted tempo, 82nd in adjusted offense and 161st in adjusted defense.  This looks like the perfect matchup for a high-scoring NIT game tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* St. John's/Kansas East Region No-Brainer on UNDER 144.5

Kansas is a dead nuts UNDER team going 23-11 UNDER in all games this season.  The Jayhawks rank 9th in adjusted defense and can defend as well as almost anyone.  But they really struggle on offense, and that has been on display.

Kansas lost 69-47 to Houston in the Big 12 Tournament for just 116 combined points.  The Jayhawks came back with a 68-60 win over Cal Baptist for just 128 combined points in the opening round.  This total of 144.5 is very high for a game involving the Jayhawks.

St. John's ranks 10th in adjusted defense, and like Kansas, the Red Storm are much better on defense than they are on offense.  The Red Storm are 8-3 UNDER in their last 11 games overall.  They went for 124 combined points with UConn in the Big East Championship Game and 132 combined points with Northern Iowa in their NCAA Tournament opener.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Vanderbilt/Nebraska South Region No-Brainer on Vanderbilt -2.5

Nebraska can hang with teams who aren't very athletic like Troy.  The Huskers made easy work of the Trojans in the Round of 64 to get their first NCAA Tournament win in program history.  I can only think it's a letdown spot off such a monumental victory for the program.

Now they take a big step up in class here against a very athletic team in Vanderbilt.  The Commodores beat Tennessee by 7 and Florida by 17 before falling to Arkansas in the SEC Championship Game.  Arkansas shot 15-of-24 (62.5%) from 3 and there wasn't much they could do.

After a slow start with perhaps a bit of a hangover from that SEC Championship game loss, Vanderbilt crushed McNeese State in the 2nd half and pulled away for a double-digit victory.  McNeese State was a very athletic team that put the pressure on Vanderbilt.  This non-athletic Nebraska team will be much easier for them to handle.

Vanderbilt went 16-0 to open this season with a perfect non-conference record.  That included wins over VCU by 15, St. Mary's by 27 and SMU by 19.  That St. Mary's game is a perfect comp for Nebraska, an unathletic team that likes to milk the shot clock and rely on good defense.  But Nebraska doesn't have the offense to match Vanderbilt.

The Commodores rank 8th in the country in adjusted offense and have been even better since getting Duke Miles (16.4 PPG) back healthy for the stretch run.  Nebraska ranks 54th in adjusted offense this season.  They are very easy to defend, much easier than the teams that Vanderbilt faced in the SEC gauntlet.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

20* TCU/Duke East Region No-Brainer on TCU +11.5

Duke is extremely vulnerable without two starters in C Patrick Ngongba Jr. (10.7 PPG, 6.0 RPG) and Caleb Foster (8.5 PPG).  The Blue Devils have gone 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall without those guys.

Duke beat FSU by 1, was fortunate to cover in a 12-point win over Clemson, beat Virginia by 4 and then beat Siena by 6 as 28.5-point favorites in the Round of 64.  The Blue Devils trailed most that game and it wasn't decided until the final seconds.  That was a Siena team that played all 5 starters 40 minutes, too.

TCU has gone toe-to-toe with some of the best teams in the country this season and will not be scared of Duke.  TCU only lost by 4 to Michigan, upset Florida and Wisconsin, and beat Iowa State, Texas Tech and Ohio State.  They have the physicality to match Duke and actually be the more physical team, especially without Ngonba on the court for the Blue Devils.  Bet TCU Saturday.

20* Louisville/Michigan State East Region No-Brainer on Michigan State -4

It's been a bad look for the ACC to this point in the Tournament going 0-7 ATS as of this writing.  I don't think Louisville is the team to buck that trend, especially playing without Mikel Brown Jr. (18.2 PPG).

Louisville only beat South Florida by 4 despite shooting 13-of-25 (52%) from 3-point range.  They also only won by 4 despite USF shooting a woeful 5-of-33 (15.2%) from 3-point rangers, including 0-11 from and only 4 points form their best player in Wes Enis.

Now the Cardinals take a big step up in class here against Michigan State.  The Spartans only lost one game in the non-conference this season and it came by 6 against Duke.  They made easy work of North Dakota State 92-67 as 16.5-point favorites in the Round of 64.

That gives the Spartans an advantage as they did not have to stress late in that game against NDSU, while Louisville was life and death with USF.  The Cardinals being short-handed without Brown here playing their 2nd game in 3 days really hurts them.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

20* Miami Ohio/Tennessee Midwest Region No-Brainer on OVER 148.5

This is a very low total for a game involving Miami Ohio.  The Redhawks go 5 out with five 3-point shooters on the court at all times.  They are an elite offensive team but a mediocre defensive team, and that formula usually yields shootouts.

They rank 61st in adjusted offense, 5th in effective FG percentage and 22nd in 3-point percentage as they have been riding their offense all season.  But they are just 152nd in adjusted defense, which is why they have found themselves in so many close games all season.

Miami is 18-12 OVER in all games this season including 3-0 on neutral courts.  Miami has played 33 games this season, and 29 of those saw at least 146 combined points, with 26 of them seeing 149 or more combined points which would top this 148.5-point total.

Tennessee has played 33 games this season with 21 of those seeing 146 or more combined points.  The Vols got Nate Ament (17.5 PPG) back healthy for the SEC Tournament, and he pairs with Ja'Kobi Gillespie (18.0 PPG) as one of the best guard tandems in the country.  They will both have big days against Miami's soft defense.

Tennessee ranks 1st in the country grabbing 45.1% of its own misses on offense.  The Vols are going to dominate the Redhawks on the glass in this game and get plenty of easy put backs.  The Redhawks lack size inside which is their biggest weakness.  But Tennessee may also have to go more small ball to match Miami in this one as well, which would lead to a more up-tempo, higher scoring game.  Either way, I think we easily top 148.5 combined points in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Hofstra/Alabama Midwest Region No-Brainer on Hofstra +12

Hofstra was impressive in the non-conference beating Penn by 17 on the road, upsetting Pitt by 7 on the road and upsetting Syracuse on the road.  The Pride also only lost by 4 at UCF as 9.5-point dogs for a good result against another NCAA Tournament team.

Hofstra has been absolutely dominant down the stretch going 11-1 SU & 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games overall.  The lone loss came at UNC-Wilmington by 4, which won the regular season CAA title and just beat Yale on the road in the NIT.  Seven of the 11 wins came by 9 points or more.

Hofstra plays the perfect style to compete with Alabama.  The Pride play very slow ranking 317th in adjusted tempo.  They ranks 3rd in the country in 2-point percentage defense (44.2%) and 77th defending the 3 (32.3%). They force teams to beat them from the midrange.

Alabama only shoots layups and 3's, playing right into the strengths of Hofstra.  The Crimson TIde also play zero defense ranking 67th in adjusted defense and 75th in effective FG percentage defense.  This is the worst defensive team of the Nate Oats era, which is saying a lot.

But the biggest reason I'm on Hofstra is due to Alabama's 2nd-leading scorer Aden Holloway (16.8 PPG) getting kicked off the team earlier this week due to legal issues.  Holloway is their best shooter hitting 43.8% from 3-point range and 86.4% from the FT line.  The Crimson Tide were a tough team to tame with Holloway and Labaron Philon (21.7 PPG) running the show, but now they are much easier to defend knowing that Hofstra can focus in on only having to stop Philon.

Hofstra ranks 51st rebounding 34.9% of its own misses on offense.  Alabama ranks 292nd in defensive rebounding allowing opponents to grab 32.8% of their own misses.  Hofstra is going to have a field day getting offensive rebounds and extra opportunities for points.  This is a terrible matchup for Alabama, and the Pride are live underdogs here in the Round of 64.  Bet Hofstra Friday.

25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on Akron +8.5

Texas Tech lost Jadyn Toppin (21.8 PPG, 10.8 RPG, 1.7 BPG) to a season-ending injury in a loss at Arizona State on February 17th.  With the injury, the Red Raiders' postseason hopes were absolutely crushed as he was one of the best players in the country.

The Red Raiders responded well initially without Toppin, beating Kansas State and Cincinnati at home and upsetting Iowa State on the road thanks to hot 3-point shooting in their first three games without him.  But they have come back down to reality since, losing by 8 as 8.5-point home favorites to TCU, losing by 6 as 2.5-point dogs and getting crushed in the rematch with Iowa State by 22 in the Big 12 Tournament.

In that loss to Iowa State, both G Christian Anderson (18.9 PPG, 7.4 APG) and F LeJuan Watts (11.5 PPG, 6.0 RPG) suffered injuries on the slick floor in the Big 12 Tournament.  The Big 12 elected to change back to a hardwood court the next round due to those injuries.  While Anderson and Watts are expected to play in this game against Akron, I can't think they will be 100%.

Akron was the best team in the MAC all season despite the fact that Miami went 31-0.  The Zips were the more dominant team, and they rank 30 spots higher than Miami in Kenpom.  They went 29-5 this season while ranking 54th in adjusted offense and 114th in adjusted defense.  Akron played a tough non-conference schedule to prepare them for the NCAA Tournament, too.

Akron's has an elite 5-out offense that can score on anyone.  Tavari Johnson (20.1 PPG, 5.0 APG), Amani Lyles (14.6 PPG, 8.0 RPG) and Shamah Scott (12.7 PPG, 42.2% 3-pointers) lead the way.  The Zips featured five of their top six scorers shooting at least 37.3% from 3-point range, and all seven top scorers shoot at least 31.1%.  So they can shoot it with anyone as they rank 8th in effective FG percentage and 14th in 3-point percentage in the country.

Akron's weakness is defending big men because they are a smaller, more athletic team.  This is where Toppin's absence really hurts.  They now match up very well with Texas Tech, which has had to deploy more small ball without Toppin inside.  He draws so much attention that he opens things up for everyone else.  Anderson has had 6 or more turnovers in four of his last seven games without Toppin.  He is being forced to do more and it's leading to a lot of empty possessions for the Red Raiders.  The Zips are a very live underdog in this game and I actually expect them to win outright.  Bet Akron Friday.

20* NDSU/Michigan State East Region No-Brainer on UNDER 143.5

Michigan State is a dead nuts UNDER team ranking 253rd in adjusted tempo and 13th in adjusted defense.  Nothing comes easy against the Spartans and they don't allow 2nd chance opportunities ranking 1st in defensive rebound rate.

North Dakota State also plays slow ranking 239th in adjusted tempo.  The Bison were a great rebounding team this season but a lot of that was due to the opposition in the Summit League.  They won't get any easy 2nd chance points against Michigan State, and it will be a lot of one shot and done on offense for both teams as both are great rebounding teams.

North Dakota State is 11-4 UNDER in its last 15 games overall.  The Bison just went for 132 combined points with North Dakota, 124 with Omaha and 141 with Oral Roberts in their three Summit League Tournament games.  This total of 143.5 is very high for a game involving NDSU right now.

Michigan State has been in a lot of overs lately which has inflated this total.  But teams have shot 45.5% or better from 3 against them in four of their last five games.  That's unsustainable, especially since they were great at defending the 3 prior to that.  Even after that onslaught, the Spartans still rank 112th defending the 3 at 32.9% for the season.  The Bison will get nothing easy against them.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Troy/Nebraska South Region No-Brainer on UNDER 138

Two dead nuts UNDER teams square off when Troy meets Nebraska in the Round of 64.  This will be an ugly, low-scoring game and this total of 138 has been set too high as a result.

Troy ranks 309th in adjusted tempo.  The Trojans have gone 9-2 UNDER in their last 11 games overall with 138 or fewer combined points in eight of those 11 games.  And that's even with playing several up-tempo teams in the Sun Belt.

Nebraska ranks 218th in adjusted tempo and 7th in adjusted defense.  The Huskers have gone 20-6 UNDER in their last 26 games overall.  They went for 132 combined points with Purdue, 124 with UCLA and 140 at the end of regulation with Iowa in their last three games coming in.

With neither team looking to push the tempo, this game will be one of the best defensive battles of the opening round.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* SMU/Miami Ohio First 4 No-Brainer on Miami Ohio +7

Miami Ohio has the luxury of playing this First 4 game less than an hour from their campus in Oxford.  This First 4 game will be played in Dayton, and there's no question it will feel like a home game for the Redhawks.

Look for fans to come out strong in support of this team that went 31-0 in the regular season.  And look for the Redhawks to be playing with a chip on their shoulder after the committee basically gave them the shaft by making them play in the First 4 instead of putting them in the Round of 64.

SMU is lucky to have made the NCAA Tournament as it was the last team in.  The Mustangs did not earn it at all going 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games including blowout road losses to Stanford by 20 and FSU by 13.  They went 3-8 SU in true road games this season with their three wins coming against non-tournament teams in Miss State, Wake Forest and Pitt.  This will essentially be a true road game for them.

A big reason the Mustangs got into the NCAA Tournament is because they were without 3rd-leading scorer BJ Edwards (12.7 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 4.9 AGP), who is also their best defender.  They announced he would return for the NCAA Tournament likely to help their chances.  But I have to think since he sat out the ACC Tournament over the weekend that he's nowhere near 100%.  They were fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives and he sat.

I think the Redhawks were carrying a huge burden for much of the season trying to keep their perfect record alive.  I think they had a letdown in the MAC Tournament against UMass, which was what I called for when I backed UMass.  But now I think they can reset, refocus and come back playing free again in the First 4.  And they will give SMU a run for its money in what will basically be a home game for them Wednesday night.  Bet Miami Ohio Wednesday.

20* NIT GAME OF THE WEEK on South Alabama +17.5

This is a complete fade of Auburn which doesn't want to be here.  The Tigers were one of the last teams left out of the NCAA Tournament.  They played a tough schedule, but their 17-16 record that included a 3-9 finish had them being left out.

There's no chance Auburn is going to be motivated to beat South Alabama in the NIT.  The Tigers have players more concerned about preparing for the NBA draft.  Meanwhile, South Alabama wants to be here and certainly relishes the opportunity to beat a Power 4 team from the SEC and an in-state opponent to boot.

South Alabama went 21-11 this season with 10 of those 11 losses coming by 13 points or fewer.  The Jaguars play a grinding style ranking 321st in adjusted tempo which allows them to be competitive against almost anyone.  It also opens up the door to playing to their level of competition both good and bad.  Bet South Alabama Tuesday.

25* SEC Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Vanderbilt ML -130

Vanderbilt had the tougher path to the SEC Tournament Championship Game.  But they will be the fresher team because they made such easy work of their two opponents.  After beating Tennessee 75-68 on Friday, the Commodores came back with a 91-74 win over Florida on Saturday.

They also played in the early game Saturday so they have that extra 3 hours of rest over Arkansas.  And because they blew out Florida, only two players played more than 30 minutes for them yesterday.  They were able to rest their starters in the final minutes.

Meanwhile, Arkansas was life and death with Oklahoma on Friday in a 82-79 win.  They were life and death with Ole Miss in a 93-90 (OT) win on Saturday.  Those are two of the worst teams in the SEC that won't be going to the NCAA Tournament to boot.

Darius Acuff played all 40 minutes against Oklahoma and then another 40 minutes against Ole Miss yesterday.  Four starters played at least 40 minutes in that OT game against Ole Miss.  The Razorbacks only have a 7-man rotation so they aren't very equipped to handle this 3rd game in 3 days.  The Commodores are the better, more rested team and should be bigger favorites today as a result.  Bet Vanderbilt on the Money Line Sunday.

20* Virginia/Duke ACC No-Brainer on Virginia +8.5

Duke is without two starters in Caleb Foster (8.5 PPG) and Patrick Ngonba Jr. (10.7 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.1 BPG) for the ACC Tournament.  The loss of Ngonba is huge as he controls everything in the paint for Duke.  Without him, they won't be nearly as dominant defensively.

That was on display in their first game as Duke was life and death in a 80-79 win over Florida State as 17.5-point favorites.  The Blue Devils were fortunate to cover as 10.5-point favorites in a 73-61 win over Clemson where they got a tip-in to cover in the closing seconds.  That was a tired Clemson team playing its 3rd game in 3 days and one missing a starting big man due to injury.

This is a big step up in class here against a healthy, rested Virginia team.  The Cavaliers are on equal rest to Duke after getting a double-bye into the quarterfinals.  The difference is Virginia has made easy work of its first two opponents and should be the fresher, deeper team as a result.  Especially with Duke down two starters.

Virginia beat NC State 81-74 in the opener before crushing Miami 84-62 yesterday.  The blowout nature of that win over Miami allowed the Cavaliers to rest their starters late and stay fresh for this game against Duke.  This line should be much closer to PK given the injuries to Duke.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

20* St. Joe's/VCU Atlantic 10 No-Brainer on St. Joe's +6.5

St. Joe's is the most underrated team in the Atlantic 10.  The Hawks have gone 14-3 SU & 15-2 ATS in their last 17 games overall with their three losses all coming by single-digits.  They have won and covered 7 in a row heading into the semifinals of the Atlantic 10 Tournament.

Their big finish allowed the Hawks to earn a double-bye into the quarterfinals.  They made easy work of Davidson in a 70-58 win as they led by 20 late before calling off the dogs and saving their energy for this game against VCU.

Meanwhile, VCU was in a dog fight with a 71-66 win over Duquesne yesterday, failing to cover as 6.5-point closing favorites.  They can't be identical 6.5-point favorites against St. Joe's, a team that is much better than Duquesne.  They have been fortunate in close games with their last three games all resulting in wins by 6 points or fewer.  This one will go down to the wire as well.

St. Joe's only lost 79-72 on the road at VCU in their lone meeting this season, and that was way back on January 19th.  The Hawks have improved by leaps and bounds since, and they're ready to give VCU a run for its money in the rematch today.  Bet St. Joe's Saturday.

25* Atlantic 10 Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Joe's -1

St. Joe's is the most underrated team in the Atlantic 10.  The Hawks have gone 13-3 SU & 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall with their three losses all coming by single-digits.  They have won and covered 6 in a row coming into the Atlantic 10 Tournament.

The Hawks earned a bye into the quarterfinals thanks to their big finish.  Now that bye will pay off in a big way with the rest advantage over Davidson tonight.  The Wildcats had to play Thursday and needed OT to beat the worst team in the Atlantic 10 in Loyola-Chicago by a final of 64-59.  I question how much they'll have left in the tank today.

St. Joe's won 70-67 as 1.5-point dogs at Davidson on March 4th just over a week ago.  They have to be more than 1-point favorites on a neutral now in the rematch given their rest advantage.  Bet St. Joe's Friday.

20* Iowa State/Arizona Big 12 No-Brainer on Iowa State +4.5

The Iowa State Cyclones have the best following at the Big 12 Tournament every year.  That's why they call it Hilton South in Kansas City.  That was on display as the Cyclones crushed Arizona State 91-42 in their opener.  They followed it up with another dominant 75-53 win over Texas Tech yesterday.

The blowout nature of those two wins allowed the Cyclones to rest their starters in the 2H and conserve them for the rest of this tournament.  That's why I'm not even giving Arizona much of a rest advantage at all despite the fact that they are playing just their 2nd game in 2 days.

Now the Cyclones want revenge from a 73-57 road loss at Arizona on March 2nd earlier this month.  They shot 29.2% from the field and 23.3% from 3-point range and are clearly due some positive shooting regression in the rematch today.

This will basically be a home game for Iowa State, and it's not being factored into this line enough, which is the case almost every year.  Arizona is going to be the No. 1 seed regardless of what happens in the Big 12 Tournament.  The Wildcats have much less to play for than the Cyclones and won't be all that motivated to beat them again.  Bet Iowa State Friday.

20* UMass/Toledo MAC No-Brainer on UMass +3.5

UMass ranks 300th in KenPom's luck metric.  The Minutemen are 17-15 this season with 13 of those losses coming by single-digits.  They have been a tough luck loser all season.  They finally had some positive luck regression yesterday handing Miami Ohio its first loss of the season to show their potential.  They had taken Miami Ohio to the wire in both regular season meetings as well.

Toledo was in a 77-76 battle with Bowling Green yesterday.  The Rockets really only go 7 deep and won't be able to handle these back-to-back situations as well as a deeper UMass team.  It's also worth noting the Minutemen had 8 days off prior to the MAC Tournament.

UMass beat Toledo 84-82 as 2.5-point home favorites in their lone meeting this season.  Toledo shot 54.9% from the field, 42.9% from 3 and 80% from the FT line and still lost that game.  That bodes well for the Minutemen in the rematch.  Bet UMass Friday.

20* Ohio State/Michigan Big Ten No-Brainer on Ohio State +13.5

Ohio State is showing how potent they can be when they are fully healthy like they have been to end the season.  The Buckeyes have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall upsetting Purdue by 8 as 6.5-point dogs, blasting Penn State by 32 on the road and blasting Indiana by 13 as 3.5-point home favorites.

The Buckeyes led by double-digits throughout and held on for a 72-69 win over Iowa yesterday in their opening Big Ten Tournament game.  They overcame the Hawkeyes shooting 47.6% from 3-point range.  They avenged a 17-point loss to Iowa earlier in their first meeting on February 25th.  Now Ohio State is motivated to avenge a pair of losses to Michigan.

The Wolverines won the Big Ten regular season title and swept their biggest rivals in Michigan State in the regular season finale.  I think they come into the Big Ten Tournament 'fat and happy' and I don't think they will be all that motivated at all.  They know they already have a No. 1 seed locked up no matter what happens in the Big Ten Tournament.

It's also worth noting Michigan lost LJ Cason (8.4 PPG) to a season-ending injury three games ago.  He is their most productive player off the bench and it hurts their guard depth.  The Wolverines were in dog fights with Iowa and MSU in their first two games without him.  Either way, I don't think the Wolverines should be 13.5-point favorites today.  Bet Ohio State Friday.

20* Florida State/Duke ACC No-Brainer on Florida State +19

Florida State is a legit sleeper to make a run in the ACC Tournament.  The Seminoles have been undervalued for a few months now going 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They have gone 10-2 SU in their last 12 games with road wins over Virginia Tech by 23 and Clemson by 5, as well as a home win over SMU by 13.

First-year head coach Luke Loucks has the Seminoles improving rapidly and ready to make a run.  They opened with a 85-79 win over California in which they were never challenged and led by double-digits throughout.  That was a very misleading final score.

Now the Seminoles can hang with Duke, which will be without two starters in Caleb Foster (8.5 PPG) and Patrick Ngonba Jr. (10.7 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.1 BPG) for the ACC Tournament.  The loss of Ngonba is huge as he controls everything in the paint for Duke.  Without him, they won't be nearly as dominant defensively.  This line is absurd given the losses of these two starters for the Blue Devils.  Bet Florida State Thursday.

20* BYU/Houston Big 12 No-Brainer on Houston -8.5

The Houston Cougars have a massive rest advantage over BYU in this game.  Houston got a bye into the quarterfinals, while BYU will be playing its 3rd game in 3 days.  That rest advantage will lead to a blowout victory for Houston today.

BYU opened with a 105-91 shootout win over Kansas State on Tuesday followed by a 68-48 win over West Virginia on Wednesday.  BYU was already short-handed without Richie Saunders (18.1 PPG).  I question how much they'll have left in the tank for this game tonight as they really only go 7 deep.

Houston beat BYU 77-66 on the road in their lone meeting this season.  That was back when they had Saunders healthy.  Houston was a 6.5-point favorite in that true road game.  Houston needs to be more than an 8.5-point favorite on a neutral now in the rematch without Saunders.  Bet Houston Thursday.

25* ACC Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami ML +120

I love the spot for the Miami Hurricanes.  They want revenge from a 92-89 home loss to Louisville on Senior Day in the regular season finale.  They had gone 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their previous eight games prior to that defeat with their lone loss coming by 3 at Virginia.

Miami has the rest advantage after getting a bye into the quarterfinals while Louisville had to come back late to beat SMU 62-58 yesterday.  That was an SMU team that was missing BJ Edwards and had to play the previous day.  It was a very poor showing.

Louisville is without Mikel Brown Jr. (18.2 PPG) for the ACC Tournament.  Four starters played at least 33 minutes for the Cardinals yesterday, and they really only went with a 7-man rotation.  Having to play back-to-back days while being short-handed is a huge disadvantage.

Louisville only beat Miami by 3 in the regular season finale despite shooting a ridiculous 62.3% from the field and 12-of-24 (50%) from 3-point range.  I have to think they are due some negative shooting regression in the rematch today, especially since they are on tired legs.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Miami on the Money Line Thursday.

25* Big Ten Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Ohio State PK

Ohio State is showing how potent they can be when they are fully healthy like they have been to end the season.  The Buckeyes have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall upsetting Purdue by 8 as 6.5-point dogs, blasting Penn State by 32 on the road and blasting Indiana by 13 as 3.5-point home favorites.

Now the Buckeyes have the rest advantage over the Iowa Hawkeyes after getting a bye into the 3rd round.  Iowa had to play yesterday and actually trailed at halftime in a 75-64 win over Maryland.  The Hawkeyes had to play their starters big minutes.

This is an Iowa team that is tanking down the stretch going 3-6 SU & 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They are a one-man show with Bennett Stirtz.  That makes them very easy to defend.  Stirtz played 39 minutes yesterday and was one of three starters to play at least 34 minutes as the Hawkeyes only have a 7-man rotation.

Ohio State wants revenge from a 74-57 road loss at Iowa where they were without Christoph Tilly (11.0 PPG).  They shot just 5-of-18 (27.8%) from 3 while Iowa shot 7-of-14 (50%) from 3 as well.  The Buckeyes are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch today.  Bet Ohio State Thursday.

20* UMass/Miami MAC No-Brainer on UMass +8

Miami Ohio just completed a 31-0 regular season with yet another one-possession win.  Their last three wins have all come by exactly 2 points, and they are the 8th-luckiest team in the country according to KenPom's luck metric.  They have 13 wins by single-digits this season.

I think this is where the Redhawks take a breather.  They will be in the NCAA Tournament no matter what happens in the MAC Tournament.  And they won't be nearly as motivated as they were to go undefeated in the regular season.

UMass ranks 320th in KenPom's luck metric.  The Minutemen are 16-15 this season with 13 of those losses coming by single-digits.  They have been a tough luck loser all season, including in their two meetings with Miami Ohio this season.

UMass only lost 86-84 at Miami Ohio and 86-77 at home against the Redhawks.  I think they can take them to the wire again in this 3rd meeting and possibly pull off the upset to advance in the MAC Tournament.  They are a legit sleeper to win it all.  Bet UMass Thursday. 

20* Wake Forest/Clemson ACC No-Brainer on Clemson -6

Clemson has a big rest advantage over Wake Forest tonight.  The Demon Deacons needed OT to beat Virginia Tech 95-89 yesterday.  Meanwhile, the Tigers earned a bye into the 2nd round and will be the much fresher team tonight.  They will also have a ton of fans in attendance with this game being played in Charlotte, NC only 2 hours from campus.

Juke Harris played 44 minutes , Myles Colvin 36 minutes and Sebastian Akins 32 minutes for the Demon Deacons yesterday.  Nate Calmese (10.1 PPG) is on a minutes limit due to coming back from injury for the ACC Tournament and only played 14 minutes yesterday.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Clemson and 'sell high' on Wake Forest.  The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall, while the Demon Deacons are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Bet Clemson Wednesday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Liberty -5.5

Liberty has had the C-USA regular season title locked up for a couple weeks now.  Not surprisingly, the Flames have struggled to find motivation down the stretch as a result.  They have gone 3-3 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  I throw all six games out.

Now it's time to 'buy low' on a Liberty team that has been the class of C-USA all season.  We are getting the Flames as only 5.5-point favorites because they struggled ATS down the stretch.  But they'll be locked in and focused now with a trip to the NCAA Tournament at stake.

The Flames have the rest advantage here getting a bye into the quarterfinals.  Meanwhile, Missouri State was in a 75-72 dog fight with Florida International yesterday.  Four starters played at least 34 minutes for the Bears yesterday, and I question how much they'll have left in the tank for the Flames tonight.  Bet Liberty Wednesday.

20* USC/Washington Big Ten No-Brainer on Washington -4.5

USC has gone in the tank and is just ready for this season to be over.  The Trojans lost Rodney Rice (20.3 PPG) early in the season, and then Chad Baker-Mazara (18.5 PPG) left the team in the last few weeks.  They simply cannot hang in the Big Ten without these guys.

The Trojans enter the Big Ten Tournament on a 7-game losing streak.  They have gone 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall losing by 36 at home to Illinois, by 19 at UCLA, by 15 at home to Nebraska, by 19 at Washington and by 21 at home to UCLA.  They haven't even been competitive.

Now USC has to face that same Washington team that they just lost by 19 to on March 4th a week ago today.  It's a Washington team that is much superior here and it will show in the Big Ten Tournament as they enter it very healthy.  Bet Washington Wednesday.

20* Oklahoma State/Colorado Big 12 No-Brainer on Colorado ML -115

The Colorado Buffaloes went 5-5 SU & 7-3 ATS in their final 10 games of the season.  They gave Arizona all they could handle and took BYU to OT in losses, and they handled their business against the bottom of the Big 12.

The Buffaloes beat Utah by 14, K-State by 9, Oklahoma State by 14, ASU by 8 and TCU by 26 during this closing stretch.  That 83-69 win over Oklahoma State came just two weeks ago on February 21st.  And I think it will be more of the same in the rematch tonight.

The Cowboys no longer have big man Parsa Fallah (14.7 PPG, 6.0 RPG), who is out with a season-ending injury.  Fallah had 14 points in that 14-point loss to Colorado.  The Cowboys will get absolutely owned on the boards without him.

Oklahoma State is 2-7 SU & 3-6 ATS in its last nine games overall and has really missed Fallah down the stretch.  Both wins came in OT against WVU and UCF as well, so they are very close to being 0-9 over this stretch.  The Buffaloes should be favored by more tonight.  Bet Colorado on the Money Line Tuesday.

20* Iowa/Nebraska Big Ten No-Brainer on Nebraska -5.5

Nebraska wants revenge from a 57-50 road loss at Iowa on February 17th.  The Huskers shot just 20.8% from 3-point range.  They will be much better at home today, where they are 14-2 this season.

Iowa is just 3-7 SU in true road games.  The Hawkeyes are coming off a tough loss to Michigan where they had a chance to tie it at the buzzer at home.  But that's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.  Iowa's last three road games were ugly losing outright at Maryland as 10.5-point favorites, outright at Penn State as 9.5-point favorites and by 13 at Wisconsin.  Bet Nebraska Sunday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Temple/Tulsa OVER 152.5

Tulsa is a dead nuts OVER team going 19-9 OVER in all games this season including 9-3 OVER in home games.  The Golden Hurricane are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 153 or more combined points in four of those five games.  This total of 152.5 is short for a game involving Tulsa.

Temple is 3-0 OVER i its last three games overall with 149 or more combined points in all three.  This will be their first meeting with Tulsa.  Neither team has much to play for, so this should play out like a pick up game in the final regular season game before both teams head to the AAC Tournament.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Colorado +14.5

This is the letdown spot for Arizona.  The Wildcats clinched the outright Big 12 regular season title with a home win over Iowa State last time out.  Head coach Tommy Lloyd called out the media for calling his team soft.  But I expect a very soft effort from the Wildcats today in this clear letdown spot.

Colorado is no pushover at home.  The Buffaloes are 13-4 SU at home this season.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four Big 12 home games beating K-State by 9, Oklahoma State by 14, ASU by 8 and TCU by 26.  This is their 'national championship' on Senior Day and we will get an inspired effort from the Buffaloes tonight.  Bet Colorado Saturday.

25* College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Coastal Carolina -1.5

The Sun Belt Tournament is staggered this season to give the top teams the biggest advantages.  The 1 and 2 seeds get a bye all the way to the semifinals, while the 3 and 4 seeds get a bye to the quarterfinals.

Coastal Carolina earned the 3rd seed with a big finish in the regular season.  The Chanticleers went 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their final six games with their lone loss coming by 2 to James Madison.  They avenged that loss in the season finale and have been off since February 27th.

The Chanticleers have one of the best rest advantages I've ever seen heading into this quarterfinal matchup with Georgia Southern, which will be playing its 4th game in 4 days.  And all three games were absolute wars with a 88-84 win over ODU Wednesday, a 80-77 win over Arkansas State Thursday and a 94-85 win over South Alabama Friday.

The Eagles had to erase a double-digit deficit in the final 10 minutes to upset South Alabama Friday.  Four starters played at least 33 minutes.  They made a school-record 23-of-44 (52%) from 3-point range to pull off the upset.  I have to think they are due some shooting regression today, especially playing on such tired legs.  This is where their run ends, and getting the Chanticleers as basically a PK is an absolute gift tonight.  Bet Coastal Carolina Saturday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Utah/Baylor OVER 149.5

This will be a carefree shootout between two bottom feeders in the Big 12.  Both teams are all offense and no defense, and that will play out on the court today in what will feel like a pick up game with nothing at stake for either team.

Baylor ranks 28th in adjusted offense but 114th in adjusted defense.  The Bears have played several shootouts here down the stretch going for 193 combined points with BYU, 153 with Louisville, 164 with K-State, 167 with Arizona and 173 with UCF in five of their last seven games.

Utah ranks 94th in adjusted offense but just 195th in adjusted defense.  The Utes are coming off a 92-78 loss to Colorado and 170 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on Colorado State ML -115

Colorado State is playing better than anyone in the Mountain West to close the season.  The Rams are 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They beat New Mexico and UNLV on the road, while also beating San Diego State at home during this stretch.

The Rams are now in a tie for 5th place in the Mountain West.  The top four seeds get a bye in the conference tournament, and they own the tiebreaker over 4th place Grand Canyon.  So a win today coupled with a loss by Grand Canyon would get them a bye.

Boise State is also in a tie for 5th place in the Mountain West.  But the Broncos lost both meetings with Grand Canyon this season and that would have them losing out on the tiebreaker.  They are much less motivated than the Rams heading into the season finale, which is Senior Day as well.  Bet Colorado State on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Marquette +9.5

The Marquette Golden Eagles have been grossly undervalued while the UConn Huskies have been grossly overvalued due to their records this season.  UConn sits at 27-3 while Marquette site at 11-19.

The Huskies are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games overall with 10 wins by 12 points or fewer.  They have been fortunate in close games all season, which is the opposite of Marquette, which has 13 losses by 11 points or fewer and nine by single-digits this season.

Marquette has not quit, going 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Golden Eagles are coming off a 78-56 road win at Providence.  They will be motivated to wreck UConn's bit at earning a share of the Big East title, which is what they are aiming for today.  This is Marquette's national championship game and it's Senior Day to boot.  Bet Marquette Saturday.

20* Arkansas/Missouri ESPN No-Brainer on Missouri -1.5

Missouri is squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament currently listed as a Last 4 byes team according to Joe Lunardi.  The Tigers could really use this signature win over Arkansas that would likely get them into the Big Dance.

Not only will the Tigers be motivated to make the tournament, they'll be motivated to send their Seniors out a winner on Senior Day.  They also want revenge from a 94-86 loss at Arkansas as 9.5-point dogs on February 21st just two weeks ago.  That was a rare loss for the Tigers here down the stretch as they have gone 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games.

But the biggest reason I'm backing Missouri and fading Arkansas is the fact that the Razorbacks will be without one of the best players in the country in Darius Acuff Jr. (22.2 PPG, 6.4 APG) today due to an ankle injury.  He will be missing his first game of the season.

The loss of Acuff Jr. cannot be overstated.  He just had 28 points and 13 assists in a win over Texas last time out.  He had 20 points in that first game against Missouri.  And he recently scored 49 against Alabama.  He makes everything go for them offensively.  The Tigers should be favored by more today given Acuff's absence and the motivational advantages.  Arkansas has already clinched a double-bye in the SEC Tournament and appears to be punting this game.  Bet Missouri Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech +12

Virginia Tech is squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  The Hokies are currently listed on the 'First 4 Out' line according to Joe Lunardi.  A win over rival Virginia would certainly put them on the right side of the bubble.

Virginia Tech already beat Virginia 95-85 (OT) at home in their first meeting this season.  So the Hokies already know they can play with them.  And they have actually been a better bet on the road than they have been at home this season.

Indeed, the Hokies are a perfect 9-0 ATS in true road games this season.  They've lost just one road game by double-digits all season.  This one will go down to the wire as well.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on South Alabama -5

I love the spot for South Alabama tonight.  The Jaguars got a double-bye into the quarterfinals of the Sun Belt Tournament.  They will be playing their first game tonight, while Georgia Southern will be playing its 3rd game in 3 days after two wars.

Georgia Southern beat Old Dominion 88-84 on Wednesday and Arkansas State 80-77 on Thursday.  I question how much the Eagles have left in the tank tonight.  Spudd Webb (15.5 PPG) has played 73 minutes and Alden Applewhite (13.8 PPG) 75 minutes in the two games.

South Alabama crushed Georgia Southern 87-71 on the road no less in their lone meeting this season.  The Jaguars outrebounded the Eagles 43 to 30 in that win.  They will dominate the glass again and put forth better energy than the Eagles, who are running on fumes.  Bet South Alabama Friday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo +8.5

The Buffalo Bulls are trying to lock up a spot in the MAC Tournament.  Only the Top 8 teams in the MAC play in the conference tournament.  The Bulls sit in 7th place and would be out of the tournament with a loss coupled with a win by Central Michigan tonight due to tiebreaker reasons.  They are max motivated to pull off the upset and get into the conference tournament.

The spot is terrible for Toledo.  The Rockets are already assured a spot in the MAC Tournament and actually locked into the 4th seed with nothing to play for but pride.  Worse yet, they are coming off a 74-72 loss to Miami Ohio nearly handing the Redhawks their first loss of the season.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice, and I don't expect the Rockets to show up at all tonight.  

The Bulls have played their best basketball on the highway this season going 8-5 SU & 10-3 ATS in true road games.  Bet Buffalo Friday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pepperdine/Portland OVER 152.5

Pepperdine has been a dead nuts OVER team here down the stretch.  The Waves are a perfect 10-0 OVER in their last 10 games overall with 156 or more combined points in eight of those 10 games.  They are playing faster, more efficient offense and zero defense allowing 79 or more points in 10 consecutive games, and 83 or more in nine of them.

One of those games came against this same Portland team on February 18th.  Pepperdine beat Portland 95-87 for 182 combined points.  We have nearly 30 points to spare here in the rematch with this total set at 152.5.  Fouls will likely be a factor in the end as well as neither of these teams want their season to end in the first round of the WCC Tournament.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE MONTH on Rutgers +20

Rutgers has quietly gone 6-3 ATS in its last nine games overall.  This run stems back to a 88-79 (OT) home loss to Michigan State as 14.5-point dogs.  Now the Scarlet Knights want their revenge, and even if they don't get it they will stay within this inflated 20-point spread in the rematch tonight.

This looks like the letdown spot for Michigan State even though it's Senior night.  The Spartans are coming off four consecutive wins.  The last two they earned with road wins at Purdue and at Indiana.  And they have an even bigger game on deck against rival Michigan.  That makes this the sandwich spot for the Spartans, and I do not expect their best effort tonight.  Bet Rutgers Thursday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +11.5

Purdue continues to be overvalued as a double-digit road favorite at Northwestern tonight.  The Boilermakers are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone win coming at home against Indiana.  They lost to Michigan by 11 and Michigan State by 2 at home, while also losing by 8 as 6.5-point road favorites at Ohio State.

Northwestern is playing its best basketball of the season to close. The Wildcats are 3-0 SU in their last three games and now will be motivated for an upset win on Senior Night in their final home game.  Senior F Nick Martinelli (22.5 PPG) is one of the best players in program history, and you can bet his teammates will be extra motivated to get him a win here in his final home game.

Northwestern is 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four home meetings with Purdue.  Both losses were close as they lost by just 6 and 3 points.  Getting 11.5 points with the Wildcats at home tonight is tremendous value.  Bet Northwestern Wednesday.

20* Big East TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Marquette/Providence OVER 161

Providence is a dead nuts OVER team going 20-9 OVER in all games this season including 11-4 OVER in home games.  The Friars rank 21st in adjusted tempo, 24th in adjusted offense and 193rd in adjusted defense.

Marquette also likes to play fast ranking 108th in adjusted tempo and 14th in average length of offensive possession.  The Eagles get shots up very quick on offense, and this game will see a ton of possessions because the Friars want to do the same thing.

Marquette beat Providence 105-104 (OT) in their first meeting this season.  But they didn't even need OT to cover the OVER.  This game was tied 94-94 at the end of regulation for 188 combined points, which is 27 points more than this total of 161 giving us a ton of room to spare in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE WEEK on St. Joe's +4

St. Joe's is the most underrated team in the Atlantic 10.  The Hawks have gone 11-3 SU & 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall with their three losses all coming by single-digits.  They sit in 4th place in the Atlantic 10 and are highly motivated to lock up a double-bye for the conference tournament as the top 4 teams in the conference all get one.

St. Joe's also wants revenge from a 62-56 loss to Davidson prior to this 11-3 run.  The Hawks shot just 3-of-22 (13.6%) from 3-point range in that game yet still only lost by 6.  I have to think they are due a ton of positive shooting regression in the rematch tonight.  Bet St. Joe's Wednesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati -2

Cincinnati is playing its best basketball of the season to close to put itself in position to make the NCAA Tournament.  The Bearcats are either first 4 out or next 4 out right now and needing to continue this momentum to get in.

Cincinnati has gone 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six games overall with its lone loss coming at Texas Tech.  The Bearcats beat Kansas by 16 on the road, K-State by 29 on the road, UCF by 20 at home, Utah by 4 at home and Oklahoma State by 23 at home during this 6-game stretch.

Now the Bearcats are playing on Senior Night with three Senior starters.  They take on a BYU team that just hasn't been the same since losing Richie Saunders (18.1 PPG) to a season-ending injury.  The Cougars are playing their worst basketball of the season to close, going 3-7 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They lost outright as 14.5-point home favorites to UCF and by 8 at WVU in their last two games.  Bet Cincinnati Tuesday.

20* IPFW/Green Bay Horizon League No-Brainer on Green Bay -4

Green Bay is playing as well as anyone in the Horizon League to close out the season.  The Phoenix have gone 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Their two losses came by 3 and 4 points on the road, and they also upset Oakland on the road.

The Phoenix have been dominant at home of late going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home games beating Detroit by 13, IPFW by 17 and Youngstown State by 22.  They get to host this Horizon League tournament opener tonight against IPFW.

IPFW is 3-5 SU & 3-5 ATS in its last eight games overall.  The Mastodons' three wins have come against the two worst teams in the Horizon League beating IU Indy twice and CLeveland State once.  All three wins came by 6 points or fewer, too.

Green Bay is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in two meetings with IPFW this season with both being blowout wins.  The Phoenix won 72-54 on the road and 76-59 at home.  It will be more of the same in the 3rd meeting tonight.  Bet Green Bay Tuesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE MONTH on TCU +8.5

TCU is squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament and needing a big finish to get in.  The Horned Frogs would cement their place in the big dance with an upset win at Texas Tech tonight.  And the Red Raiders are ripe for the picking in this perfect spot.

Texas Tech is coming off a 82-73 road win at Iowa State as 9.5-point dogs to hand the Cyclones their first home loss this season.  They shot 48.3% from 3-point range to pull off the stunner.  This is their letdown spot now when they return home.  And they are due some negative shooting regression, and for JT Toppin's (21.8 PPG, 10.8 RPG) season-ending injury to finally take its toll.

TCU is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last seven games overall.  TCU is 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Texas Tech.  The Horned Frogs need this game more, and getting 8.5 points with them is a tremendous value here tonight.  Bet TCU Tuesday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Tennessee/South Carolina UNDER 141.5

The Tennessee Vols will be without freshman sensation Kyle Ament (17.4 PPG) for the first time this season tonight.  Not having his scoring will really hamper them offensively as only he and Ja'Kobi Gillespie average in double figures scoring for the Vols this season.

Tennessee ranks 300th in adjusted tempo and 15th in adjusted defense to profile as an UNDER team.  South Carolina ranks 225th in adjusted tempo and 106th in adjusted offense.  It's no wonder these teams struggle to score when they get together.

Indeed, Tennessee and South Carolina have combined for 140 or fewer combined points in each of their last seven meetings, a 7-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 141.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Big Sky GAME OF THE WEEK on Eastern Washington -3.5

Eastern Washington has gone 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in its last eight games overall to pull within one game of 1st place in the Big Sky.  There's no way the Eagles are going to let down now with what's at stake, and I expect them to cap off this perfect run to end the season to give themselves a chance at a share of the Big Sky regular season title if Portland State loses tonight.

The Eagles have won by 8 or more points in seven of their last eight games with the lone exception being a 1-point road win at Montana State as 4.5-point dogs.  They are tied with Montana State in 2nd place.

Idaho has been getting way too much respect here down the stretch.  The Vandals are 4-7 SU & 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Their four wins have all come against the bottom 3 teams in the Big Sky beating Northern Arizona twice, Sacramento State and Idaho State.  

They have really struggled when they have stepped up in class with six of their last seven losses coming by 5 points or more.  They just lost their second-best player in Kolton Mitchell (13.6 PPG) to injury.  This line is simply too short tonight.  Bet Eastern Washington Monday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Charlotte +7.5

The Charlotte 49ers are actually tied for 4th in the AAC right now.  The 3rd and 4th place teams get double-byes into the quarterfinals of the conference tournament.  They have a lot to play for right now.

The Florida Atlantic Owls (8-8) are kind of in limbo right now with much less to play for.  They are struggling to the finish line going 2-7 SU in their last nine games overall with their only two wins coming against UTSA by 8 and Temple by 4.  Those are two of the worst teams in the conference.

Making matters worse for the Owls is that they have been without their best player in Devin Vanderpool (15.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG) for the past three games and he is unlikely to return today.  The Owls have no business being favored by 7.5 over the 49ers in their current state.  Bet Charlotte Sunday.

20* Gonzaga/St. Mary's ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on St. Mary's +2.5

St. Mary's wants revenge from a 73-65 road loss to Gonzaga in their first meeting this season.  The Gaels have gone 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS since so that loss really inspired them.  Now they get their revenge at home this time around.

St. Mary's is coming off an impressive 86-67 home win over Santa Clara to improve to 16-0 SU at home this season.  They are also motivated to keep their perfect record at home, which is one of the toughest places to play in the country.  They are 11-4 ATS in all home lined games this season.  Bet St. Mary's Saturday.

20* Summit League GAME OF THE WEEK on North Dakota +12.5

North Dakota State has already clinched the Summit League regular season title outright.  The Bison are really lacking motivation to close out the regular season.  They were blown out by 22 at St. Thomas on Thursday, and now they have just one day off in between games to get ready for North Dakota.

Meanwhile, the Fighting Hawks last played last Saturday, so they have had an entire week to get ready for this game against their most hated rivals.  They will be out for revenge from a 83-66 loss to the Bison in their first meeting this season.  They want this game more and it will show today.  Bet North Dakota Saturday.

20* Horizon League GAME OF THE WEEK on Green Bay -1.5

Green Bay has gone 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall and is playing its best basketball of the season to close.  The Phoenix sit in a tie for 4th in the Horizon League, and a win would assure they get a home game for the first round of the conference Tournament.

The Phoenix are also motivated with this being senior day in their final home game.  They are also rested and ready to go last playing on Sunday, so they have had five days off to rest and prepare to get revenge on Youngstown State, who they lost by 7 to on the road earlier this season.

Youngstown State is a much more tired team with just two days off since a 78-65 road loss to lowly Utah.  The Penguins will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days as well.  They sit at 8-11 in the conference with nothing to play for here.  Bet Green Bay Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Clemson +2

Clemson will be highly motivated for a victory today after four straight losses that have put the Tigers on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  The Tigers have had an entire week off to rest and get ready to beat Louisville.

The Cardinals are coming off a 77-74 loss at short-handed UNC on Monday and will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days.  They don't have a signature road win all season, and they won't be getting on here, either.  They are just 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS in true road games this season.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Clemson Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Seton Hall +14

This is the ultimate letdown spot for UConn after the beat down they just put on St. John's.  That was a rare blowout win for the Huskies, who are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall with nine wins by 12 points or fewer.  They aren't blowing anyone out, so it was just an off game for the Red Storm.

Now the Huskies will be flat as a pancake hosting Seton Hall, which needs a signature win to improve its tournament resume.  They nearly had it in a 69-64 loss to UConn in their first meeting this season as 6.5-point home dogs.  This is a big adjustment for the rematch at +14.  Especially since the Pirates have had a week off coming into this game to rest and prepare to beat the Huskies.  Bet Seton Hall Saturday.

20* Michigan/Illinois FOX No-Brainer on Illinois +1.5

I love the spot for Illinois tonight.  The Fighting Illini are coming off a 95-94 (OT) loss at UCLA on Saturday where they blew a 23-point lead.  They will be pissed off, and they will be rested and ready to go after having the last five days off to prepare for this huge showdown with Michigan.

The Wolverines don't have that same luxury.  They will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days with just two days off since a 77-67 home win over Minnesota as 21.5-point favorites.  That followed up a 68-63 loss as 3.5-point favorites to Duke on a neutral last weekend.

Michigan has a 3-game lead for 1st place in the Big Ten with three games remaining.  The Wolverines can afford this loss and still win the conference outright with one more victory.  Illinois is the team playing with more of a sense of urgency tonight, and it will be a raucous home crowd where the Fighting Illini are 13-2 SU at home this season.  Bet Illinois Friday.

20* Dayton/George Washington ESPN 2 No-Brainer on George Washington -2.5

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Dayton Flyers.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with three of those wins at home.  They are coming off a 77-62 home win over the best team in the Atlantic 10 in St. Louis.  It's only human nature for them to let down here.

George Washington wants revenge from a 79-72 road loss at Dayton in their first meeting this season.  The Revolutionaries get them at home this time around where they are 11-3 SU this season, and the Flyers are just 4-5 SU on the road.

The Revolutionaries will be the fresher, more prepared team.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 10 days, while the Flyers will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days and their 5th game in 13 days.  Bet George Washington Friday.

20* Big East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Xavier/Providence OVER 170.5

Xavier is a dead nuts OVER team going 20-7 OVER in all games this season and 7-2 OVER In road games.  The Musketeers rank 38th in adjusted tempo, 27th in average length of offensive possession, 86th in adjusted offense and 122nd in adjusted defense.

Providence has a similar profile going 19-8 OVER in all games this season including 10-4 OVER in home games.  The Friars play even faster, ranking 18th in adjusted tempo, 41st in average length of offensive possession, 29th in adjusted offense and 190th in adjusted defense.

This will be a rematch from January 10th when Xavier beat Providence 97-84 for 181 combined points.  Neither team lit it up with Providence going 8-of-32 (25%) from 3-point range and Xavier 12-of-30 (40%) from 3.  And there were no fouls late with the game already decided.  We have a lot of room to spare in the rematch with this total of 170.5 plus the possibility of fouls coming into play with this game expected to be close.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Tulsa/Tulane OVER 156

Tulsa is a dead nuts OVER team going 18-8 OVER in all games this season including 8-2 OVER in true road games.  What makes those numbers even more impressive is the fact that the Golden Hurricane haven't played a single OT game all season.  They rank 130th in adjusted tempo, 97th in average length of offensive possession, 34th in adjusted offense and 170th in adjusted defense.

Tulane has great guard play with its top three scorers in Brumbaugh (18.9 PPG), Woods (13.1 PPG) and Williams Jr. (12.1 PPG) playing in every game this season.  Their chemistry has been great down the stretch with four straight wins.  They put up 77 points on North Texas and 81 on Rice in their last two games, two teams that play at a snail's pace.  That's not Tulsa.  This has shootout written all over it.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Summit League GAME OF THE MONTH on Nebraska-Omaha ML -122

Nebraska-Omaha has been dominant since getting Paul Djobet (18.8 PPG, 43.7% 3-pointers) back from injury.  He has missed 13 games this season.  The Mavericks are 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall including two wins over Denver and another over St. Thomas, the best team in the Summit League.

South Dakota has tanked since losing its best player in Isaac Bruns (20.7 PPG, 38.7% 3-pointers).  The Coyotes have gone 3-5 SU & 4-4 ATS in their last eight games without him with their three wins coming against Oral Roberts, UMKC (OT) and South Dakota State (by 1).  Those are the three worst teams in the Summit League.  They also lost to Oral Roberts in the rematch and lost by 20 to Denver in their last two games coming in.

Omaha wants revenge from a 68-64 home loss to South Dakota on January 21st.  Omaha shot a horrendous 1-of-19 (5.3%) from 3-point range in that game yet still only lost by 4.  It's safe to say they will have some positive shooting regression in their favor in the rematch tonight.  Bet Nebraska-Omaha on the Money Line Wednesday.

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Joe's +1.5

St. Joe's is 9-3 SU & 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games overall and one of the most underrated teams in the country right now.  One of those losses came 60-52 at George Mason, and now they get their shot at revenge at home this time around.

The Hawks are 11-3 at home this season.  They Patriots are 4-4 SU & 2-6 ATS on the road this season.  The Patriots have really come back down to reality going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall with a 12-point loss at Richmond, a 19-point loss at George Washington and a 15-point home loss to Dayton.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet St. Joe's Wednesday.

20* UCF/BYU ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on UCF +13

BYU is coming off two massive games.  The Cougars lost 75-68 at Arizona before bouncing back with a 79-69 home win over Iowa State.  They will now be playing their 3rd game in 7 days, and this looks like a letdown spot for them as they host UCF.  They lost second-leading scorer Richie Saunders (18.1 PPG) to a season-ending injury, so they cannot be favored by 13 here without him.

UCF is motivated to make the NCAA Tournament.  The Knights sit at 19-7 overall and 8-6 in Big 12 play and are one of the more underrated teams in the conference.  They are coming off a 73-71 road win at Utah on Saturday and have a short drive to Provo to face BYU in this one.  I think they hang here and stay within this inflated number.  Bet UCF Tuesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Baylor +8.5

The Arizona Wildcats are in a massive letdown spot.  They are coming off a 73-66 road win at Houston that gave them the inside track to win the Big 12.  They handed Houston its first home loss of the season.  That's a Houston team that is really faltering right now losing three straight for the first time in the Kelvin Sampson era.

Not only is Arizona coming off that massive win, the Wildcats also have another big game on deck Saturday hosting Kansas.  They will be looking for revenge on the Jayhawks after losing on the road to them in their first meeting.  Sandwiched in between is this game against lowly Baylor, which they will not be up for.

This is Baylor's last chance to get a signature win, and it could go far in terms of getting them into the NCAA Tournament.  The Bears will be 'all in' for this game, and they are fully healthy unlike Arizona.  The Wildcats will be without 2nd-leading scorer Koa Peat (13.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG) for this one.  Bet Baylor Tuesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota +22.5

The Michigan Wolverines are in the ultimate sandwich spot tonight.  They are coming off two huge games against Purdue and Duke, and they have Illinois on deck Friday.  This is the letdown game for them hosting Minnesota.

Minnesota is coming off a pair of impressive blowout wins by 17 at Oregon and by 19 at home against Rutgers.  The Golden Gophers just don't get blown out often due to their style of play, which is extremely slow to limit possessions and give themselves their best chance to be competitive.

Indeed, Minnesota hasn't lost any of its last 17 games by more than 19 points.  The Golden Gophers have just one loss by more than 12 points during this stretch.  They will stay within this inflated 22.5-point spread tonight as well.  Bet Minnesota Tuesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on NC State +7

NC State wants revenge from a 76-61 home loss to Virginia on January 3rd in their first meeting this season.  The Wolfpack have been a much better team since, going 7-2 SU in their last nine games overall with their only losses coming at Louisville and at home to Miami by 1.

The Wolfpack are coming off a 82-58 home win over North Carolina last Tuesday.  They have had the last week off to rest and prepare to get their revenge on Virginia.  And I don't think that rest advantage is being factored into this line enough.

Virginia was just in a war with Miami in a 86-83 win as 7.5-point home favorites on Saturday.  The Cavaliers will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days.  They are in a big lookahead spot with a showdown with top-ranked Duke on deck Saturday.  I don't think they give NC State their full attention, especially after already dominating them on the road in the first matchup.  That will prove detrimental tonight.  Bet NC State Tuesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UTSA/Tulsa OVER 158

Tulsa is a dead nuts OVER team going 17-8 OVER in all games this season including 8-3 OVER in home games.  The Golden Hurricane rank 137th in adjusted tempo, 102nd in average length of offensive possession, 35th in adjusted offense and 165th in adjusted defense.

UTSA is 9-3 OVER in road games this season.  The Roadrunners also like to play fast ranking 123rd in adjusted tempo and 120th in average length of offensive possession.  They are abysmal defensively, ranking 324th in adjusted defense.  They are allowing 89.9 points per game on the road this season.  Tulsa is scoring 90.4 points per game at home.  Bet the OVER In this game Sunday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Villanova +3

The UConn Huskies are very fortunate to have a 24-3 record this season.  They have 10 wins by 8 points or fewer and have gone 10-2 in such games.  They are just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games overall and should not be favored at Villanova today.

The Wildcats want revenge from a 75-67 (OT) road loss at UConn in their first meeting this season.  They already proved they could play with the Huskies on the road, and I love their chances of pulling off the upset at home today.  They have won six consecutive games coming into this one and are one of the more underrated teams in the country.  Bet Villanova Saturday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston -4.5

The spot really favors the Houston Cougars today.  They are coming off a 70-67 road loss to Iowa State on Monday.  They led by double-digits in the 2H and it took a minor miracle for the Cyclones to come back and beat them.  They gave Iowa State their toughest home test of the season, a place that is very difficult to play.

Now the Cougars are rested and ready to go after having the last four days off.  They will be highly motivated to bounce back, especially with the Big 12 regular season title on the line today.  And while they are fully healthy, the same cannot be said for Arizona.

The Wildcats have been exposed in their last three games going 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS.  They lost to Kansas without Dylan Peterson, lost in OT at home to Texas Tech, and barely beat BYU by 7 at home despite the Cougars missing their 2nd-best player in Richie Saunders.

The Wildcats have injury problems of their own without second-leading scorer Koa Peat (13.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG) for this one.  They also just played BYU on Wednesday, so they have just two days to get ready for Houston.  The Cougars are 13-0 at home this season outscoring opponents by 25.4 points per game.  Bet Houston Saturday.

20* Big East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Xavier/Butler OVER 159.5

Xavier is a dead nuts OVER team going 20-6 OVER in all games this season and 7-1 OVER In road games.  The Musketeers rank 37th in adjusted tempo, 27th in average length of offensive possession, 91st in adjusted offense and 121st in adjusted defense.

Butler also likes to play fast ranking 129th in adjusted tempo and 83rd in average length of offensive possession.  They are much better on offense (67th) than defense (126th).  They also just got leading scorer Finley Bizjack (17.5 PPG) back from injury.

Xavier beat Butler 89-75 for 164 combined points in their first meeting this season.  Neither team shot very well either with Xavier shooting 47.3% overall and 32.1% from 3, while Butler shot 43.3% overall and 29.6% from 3.  So there's room for improvement in the shooting department for both teams in the rematch today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bowling Green/Miami Ohio OVER 153

Miami Ohio is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Redhawks are 14-9 OVER against the closing line and 17-6 OVER if you bet at the right number just factoring the last three games that all went under the close by 0.5 points with 164, 164 and 163 combined points and closing totals of 164.5, 164.5 and 163.5.

The Redhawks rank 46th in adjusted tempo, 45th in average length of offensive possession, 60th in adjusted offense, 4th in effective FG percentage offense and 147th in adjusted defense.  They are scoring 92.3 points per game and have ridden their elite offense to a perfect 26-0 record.

Bowling Green also plays pretty fast ranking 139th in adjusted tempo.  They let teams get shots up quick ranking 30th in average length of defensive possession.  That plays right into Miami's hands.

We saw that play out in a 93-83 win by Miami Ohio in their first meeting this season for 176 combined points.  Bowling Green shot just 5-of-22 (22.7%) from 3-point range in that first meeting and is due some positive shooting regression on the rematch.  With this total at 153, we have 23 points to spare in the rematch.

Miami and its opponents have combined for at least 153 points in 20 of its 26 games this season.  This total of 153 is very short for a game involving the Redhawks right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Big West TOTAL OF THE WEEK on CS-Northridge/UCSB OVER 155.5

CS-Northridge is a dead nuts OVER team thanks to ranking 4th in adjusted tempo and 13th in average length of offensive possession.  The Matadors are 15-9 OVER in all games this season and 8-3 OVER in road games.  This total of 155.5 is very short for a game involving CS-Northridge tonight.

UCSB ranks 70th in adjusted offense and 258th in adjusted defense.  Better yet for the OVER, the Gauchos rank 28th in effective FG percentage offense and 312th in effective FG percentage defense.  So despite playing at a much slower pace, the Guachos are an OVER team due to being so efficient on offense and so terrible on defense.

UCSB is 3-1 OVER in its last four games overall going for 160 combined points with UC-Davis, 163 with UC-Irvine and 168 with Cal Poly.  I know the first meeting went well under the total in a 74-65 win by CS-Northridge and 139 combined points.  But UCSB shot 6-of-30 (20%) from 3-point range while Northridge shot 3-of-18 (16.7%) from 3-point range.  I fully expect some major positive shooting regression for both teams in the rematch tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* MWC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Boise State/Utah State OVER 152.5

Boise State has quietly gone a perfect 10-0 OVER in its last 10 games overall with 152 or more combined points in nine of those 10 games.  The Broncos are an elite shooting team but a poor defensive team this season.

Utah State ranks 134th in adjusted tempo, 86th in average length of offensive possession, 21st in adjusted offense and 12th in effective FG percentage.  We've seen the Aggies tack on points late to try and help their net rating in their last three games.

Indeed, Utah State is 3-0 OVER in its last three games combining for 168 points with Wyoming, 169 with Fresno State and 174 with Memphis.  This total of 152.5 is too short for a game involving Boise State and Utah State right now.

Utah State beat Boise State 93-68 in their first meeting this season for 161 combined points.  The Aggies will hang another big number on the Broncos today, who should have much more success offensively in the rematch after hitting just 36.8% from the field and 26.9% from 3 in that first meeting.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Kansas/Oklahoma State OVER 158.5

Oklahoma State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Cowboys rank 13th in adjusted tempo, 59th in adjusted offense and 106th in adjusted defense.  This total of 158.5 is too low for a game involving Oklahoma State, which will control the tempo playing at home tonight.

Kansas plays much faster and much more efficiently on offense with the best player in the country healthy.  Darryn Peterson (19.8 PPG, 41.3% 3-pointers) is healthy and looking to make a statement after a season-low in points in a loss to Iowa State last time out.  Oklahoma State will offer much less resistance, but the Cowboys can keep up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Charlotte/Tulsa OVER 150.5

Tulsa is a dead nuts OVER team going 16-8 OVER in all games this season including 7-3 OVER in home games.  The Golden Hurricane rank 145th in adjusted tempo, 107th in average length of offensive possession, 32nd in adjusted offense and 168th in adjusted defense.

Charlotte is 14-10 OVER in all games this season.  The 49ers are a solid offensive team ranking 112th in adjusted offense but a terrible defensive team ranking 296th in adjusted defense.

This is a rematch from a 86-74 road win by Tulsa on January 14th for 160 combined points.  It should be more of the same in the rematch, and this total of 150.5 has been set too low.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Miami Ohio/UMass OVER 161.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when Miami visits UMass.  This will be a rematch from a 86-84 home win by Miami and 170 combined points on January 27th.  Neither team shot the lights out in that game, so it should be another high-scoring game in the rematch tonight.

Miami is 14-8 OVER in all games this season.  The Redhawks rank 45th in adjusted tempo, 61st in adjusted offense and just 147th in adjusted defense.  They rank 3rd in effective FG percentage offensively and are scoring 92.6 points per game this season.

UMass plays even faster ranking 33rd in adjusted tempo.  The Minutemen are 92nd in effective FG percentage offensively and 244th in effective FG percentage defensively.  They are 16-9 OVER in all games this season scoring 81.0 points per game.

UMass has gone OVER in three consecutive games coming in with 184 combined points with Central Michigan, 185 with Coastal Carolina and 191 with Akron.  This total of 161.5 has been set too short for this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Big East TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Villanova/Xavier OVER 151.5

Xavier is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Musketeers are 19-6 OVER in all games this season including 11-4 OVER in home games.  They rank 39th in adjusted tempo, 29th in average length of offensive possession, 90th in adjusted offense and 116th in adjusted defense.  They are also just 260th in effective FG percentage defensively.

Xavier is 8-1 OVER in its last nine games overall finishing with 152 or more combined points in eight of those nine games.  This is a very low total for a game involving Xavier.

Villanova is 10-2 OVER in its last 12 games overall.  The Wildcats are an elite offensive team ranking 31st in adjusted offense.  They will hang a big number on this poor Xavier defense to lead the way to use cashing this OVER ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Houston/Iowa State ESPN No-Brainer on Iowa State -2.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are 14-0 at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  They are outscoring opponents by 27.3 points per game at home this year.  If they want to win the regular season Big 12 title, this is a must-win for the Cyclones as they trail Houston by 2 games in the standings.

Iowa State just blasted Kansas 74-56 at home on Saturday and held arguably the best player in the country in Daryn Peterson to a season-low 10 points.  Now they get to stay at home which is a huge advantage for this quick turnaround to face Houston on Monday.

Houston doesn't have the same luxury.  The Cougars will be playing their 2nd game in 3 days and their 3rd game in 7 days with a lot of travel in between.  They failed to cover at Utah on Tuesday before failing to cover at home against Kansas State on Saturday.  They have benefited from a very soft Big 12 schedule here of late during their current 6-game winning streak.

This will be Houston's toughest road test of the season.  They also lost at Texas Tech in their previous toughest test.  Amazingly, Houston has not had to play at Hilton Coliseum since 2024, which saw Iowa State win 57-53 as 1.5-point dogs.  The home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings.  Bet Iowa State Monday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Campbell -2.5

I love the spot for the Campbell Camels today.  They will be out for revenge from a 87-83 road loss at Charleston as 3.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  Charleston shot 55.6% from the field while Campbell shot 47% and still only won by 4.

Connor Hickman (11.6 PPG) scored 18 points for that Cougars in that first meeting.  Well, Hickman has been ruled ineligible for the rest of the season.  Campbell is a 2.5-point favorite in the rematch, so it's an adjustment of 6 points from that first meeting.  That's not enough for shifting home courts and for the loss of Hickman.

Charleston is 4-4 SU in true road games this season.  They are coming off consecutive upset home losses to UNC-Wilmington by 12 and Hofstra by 4.  They will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days and are a tired team right now without Hickman.

Campbell has the luxury of having the last seven days off last playing on February 7th.  It's safe to say they will be fresh and prepared for this rematch.  They come in playing their best basketball of the season going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  The Camels are 8-2 SU at home this season as well.  Bet Campbell Sunday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgetown +17

The UConn Huskies are very fortunate to have a 23-2 record this season.  They have nine wins by 8 points or fewer and have gone 9-1 in such games.  They are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall and should not be laying 17 points to Georgetown today.

Georgetown has been a tough luck loser all season with seven losses by single-digits.  But the Hoyas are playing their best basketball of the season right now, going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming to Villanova by 7.

Now the Hoyas want revenge from a 64-62 home loss as 11.5-point dogs to UConn in their first meeting this season on January 17th just a month ago.  They already proved they could play with the Huskies at home, and getting 17 points in the rematch after nearly pulling off the upset in the first meeting is too much. 

The Hoyas have a big rest advantage here as they last played on Saturday getting a full week off in between games.  UConn just beat Butler by 10 as 11.5-point favorites on Wednesday, getting just two days off in between games.  Bet Georgetown Saturday.

20* Big West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UCSB/Cal Poly OVER 159.5

Cal Poly is a dead nuts OVER team and should not have a total in the 150's tonight.  The Mustangs rank 4th in adjusted tempo, 3rd in average length of offensive possession and 264th in adjusted defense.  They are scoring 81.0 points per game and allowing 85.5 points per game this season.

UCSB is an elite offensive team ranking 72nd in adjusted offense while scoring 79.2 points per game this season.  The Guachos are terrible defensively, ranking 238th in adjusted defense.  They rank 31st in effective FG percentage offense and 301st in effective FG percentage defense.

This will be a rematch from a 107-67 win by UCSB over Cal Poly in their first meeting this season that saw 174 combined points.  UCSB probably won't shoot 51.7% from 3 again like they did in scoring 107 points, but Cal Poly is due some positive shooting regression after shooting 26.9% from 3 in that first meeting.  The end result should even out and this game should sail OVER 159.5 combined points once again.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Texas Tech/Arizona ESPN No-Brainer on Texas Tech +9.5

Arizona finally suffered its first loss of the season to Kansas.  I always like fading teams in the next game after having their unbeaten record get blemished.  There tends to be a hangover, and they just don't show up with the kind of intensity they were before trying to keep that perfect record intact.

Even if it wasn't a terrible spot for the Wildcats, they have no business being 9.5-point favorites over Texas Tech.  Asking them to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  The Red Raiders have just one loss all season by double-digits.

Texas Tech is one of the best teams in the Big 12 at 18-6 this season.  The Red Raiders rank 16th in adjusted offense and 26th in adjusted defense with really no weaknesses.  They made easy work of Colorado 78-44 last time out and will be fresh and ready to go trying to take down the No. 1 team in the country tonight.  Bet Texas Tech Saturday.

20* Sun Belt TOTAL OF THE MONTH on South Alabama/Arkansas State OVER 150.5

Arkansas State likes to play real fast ranking 20th in adjusted tempo and 10th in average length of offensive possession.  The Red Wolves will control the tempo playing at home today, and this total of 150.5 is very short for a game involving them.

South Alabama has busted out for 81 points against Buffalo and 84 points against Southern Miss in its last two games coming in.  The Jaguars can keep up in a shootout, which they've already proven once this season.

In their first meeting, South Alabama beat Arkansas State 91-87 (OT) in a game that was tied 81-81 at the end of regulation for 162 combined points.  Neither team shot well as South Alabama shot 22.2% from 3 while Arkansas State shot 29.5% from 3.  Both teams are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch, and this total should sail OVER 150.5 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* ACC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on SMU/Syracuse OVER 156

SMU has been a dead nuts OVER team all season going 15-9 OVER in all games.  The Mustangs rank 93rd in adjusted tempo, 39th in average length of offensive possession, 15th in adjusted offense and 91st in adjusted defense.  They have stayed remarkably healthy all season.

A return to health is a big reason Syracuse has been a dead nuts OVER team in recent weeks.  Indeed, the Orange are 9-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall with 154 or more combined points in nine of those 11 games.

SMU is 5-1 OVER in its last six games overall while going for 162 or more combined points in all six games.  This total of 156 is very low for a game involving SMU and Syracuse right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* MAC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Ohio/Miami Ohio OVER 163

Miami Ohio is a dead nuts OVER team going 14-7 OVER in all games this season including 8-2 OVER in home games.  The Redhawks are scoring 92.7 points per game overall and 98.4 points per game at home this season.

The Redhawks rank 44th in adjusted tempo, 62nd in adjusted offense and 150th in adjusted defense.  They have gone for 159 or more combined points with their opponents in 11 of their last 14 games overall.  This total of 163 is actually pretty short for a game involving the Redhawks.

Ohio also likes to play fast ranking 86th in adjusted tempo.  The Bobcats are a terrible defensive team ranking 238th in adjusted defense.  They have gone for at least 157 combined points in six of their last 10 games and 162 or more in five of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on South Dakota State/Denver OVER 158.5

Denver is a dead nuts OVER team going 19-4 OVER in all games this season including 7-1 OVER in home games.  The Pioneers rank 122nd in adjusted tempo, 76th in adjusted offense and just 358th in adjusted defense.

South Dakota State is also better on offense (196th) than defense (221st).  This will be a rematch from a 87-79 home win for SDSU over Denver on January 8th and 166 combined points.  Neither team shot the lights out as SDSU made just 33.3% from 3-point range while Denver shot 43.5% overall and 37.5% from 3-point range.  It should be another shootout in the rematch here.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Horizon League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Robert Morris/Cleveland State OVER 151.5

Cleveland State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Vikings rank 95th in adjusted tempo, 151st in adjusted offense and just 357th in adjusted defense.  They are 15-7 OVER in all games this season, and this total of 151.5 is pretty short for a game involving the Vikings.

Indeed, Cleveland State and its opponents have combined for at least 156 points in nine consecutive games coming into this one, making for a 9-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 151.5-point total.  The Vikings and their opponents have combined for at least 152 points in 12 of their last 13 games as well.

Robert Morris is also a much better offensive team than defensive team.  The Colonials rank 165th in adjusted offense and just 229th in adjusted defense.  And while they like to play much slower than their opponent tonight, the Vikings will control the tempo playing at home.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Big East TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Providence/Seton Hall OVER 149.5

Providence is a dead nuts OVER team going 18-6 OVER in all games this season including 6-1 OVER in road games.  Only three times all season have Providence and its opponents combined for less than 150 points, so this total of 149.5 is very short for a game involving the Fryers.

That's especially the case now that leading scorer Jason Edwards (17.6 PPG) is back healthy for the Fryers.  He had 25 points on only 13 shot attempts in a 90-72 win over DePaul last time out.

Seton Hall has played a run of slow, defensive-minded teams and that's the reason the Pirates are 6-1 under in their last seven games overall.  They went OVER the total in their lone game against an up-tempo team in Xavier with a 86-68 win for 154 combined points.  They will be able to let their hair down against Providence here.  

The Fryers rank 17th in adjusted tempo, 20th in adjusted offense and just 198th in adjusted defense.  They force their opponents into shootouts home or away.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on BYU/Baylor OVER 158

BYU is a dead nuts OVER team going 4-1 OVER in its last five games overall.  The Cougars combined for 169 points with Utah, 169 with Arizona, 172 with Kansas and 191 with Oklahoma State.  The only game that went under came against Houston, which plays elite defense and runs offense at a snail's pace.

BYU ranks 59th in adjusted tempo and 11th in adjusted offense but just 49th in adjusted defense.  The Cougars have really been exposed defensively in Big 12 play.  Now they face another elite offensive team in Baylor, which ranks 30th in adjusted offense but just 88th in adjusted defense as one of the worst defensive teams in the Big 12.

This is a good chance to 'buy low' on a OVER in a Baylor game.  The Bears are 4-0 UNDER in their last four games overall, but three of them came against slow, elite defensive teams in Cincinnati, WVU and Iowa State.  They are ready for a shootout here with BYU.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* ACC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UNC/Miami OVER 156.5

North Carolina has been a dead nuts OVER team since getting G Seth Trimble (14.2 PPG) back healthy.  The Tar Heels are 8-1 OVER in their last nine games overall going for 160 or more combined points in eight of those nine games.  This total of 156.5 is very low for a game involving UNC right now.

Miami profiles as an OVER team ranking 53rd in average length of offensive possession.  The Hurricanes are 12-2 OVER in all home games this season.  We are seeing an average of 160 combined points in all Miami home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Arizona/Kansas ESPN No-Brainer on Kansas +3

No analysis. On vacation from Tuesday, February 3rd to Monday, February 9th. Will be back with analysis Tuesday, February 10th.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Xavier +16

No analysis. On vacation from Tuesday, February 3rd to Monday, February 9th. Will be back with analysis Tuesday, February 10th.