20* Purdue/UConn CBB Championship No-Brainer on UConn -6

The UConn Huskies are 11-0 SU & 11-0 ATS in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games dating back to last season.  They have won all 11 games by 13 points or more.  Alabama shot 47.8% from 3 in the Final 4 and still lost by 14.

UConn has no weaknesses.  The Huskies rank 1st in adjusted offense and 4th in adjusted defense.  They have held seven of their last nine opponents to 60 points or fewer, including five of their last six to 58 points or fewer.

Zach Edey is the best player in college basketball, but UConn is the best team in college basketball.  The Huskies will have the edge at the four other positions on the court outside of Edey.  Plus, Edey hasn't had to face a defender as good as Donovan Klingan all season.  He is the best big man defender in the country.

Klingan will limit what Edey can do on the offensive end.  They won't have to double-team him, and that will make life much more difficult on Purdue's guards who won't be getting uncontested looks like they are accustomed to.  This is a terrible matchup for the Boilermakers.  Bet UConn Monday.

20* Alabama/UConn Final 4 No-Brainer on UConn -11

The UConn Huskies are 10-0 SU & 10-0 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games dating back to last season.  They have won all 10 games by 13 points or more.  That's why I'm willing to lay the big number with the Huskies in this one.

UConn has no weaknesses.  The Huskies rank 1st in adjusted offense and 4th in adjusted defense.  They have held seven of their last eight opponents to 60 points or fewer, including five consecutive opponents to 58 points or fewer.  Illinois went 0-for-19 on shots that were contested by Donovan Klingan last game.  Illinois managed just 52 points for the game after coming into the game ranked No. 1 in adjusted offense.  It will be a similar fate for Alabama here, which isn't going to shoot nearly as well as it did against Clemson last game.

Alabama has been playing a little better defense in the NCAA Tournament, but they have still allowed an average of 81.5 points per game.  UConn is going to get whatever it wants offensively.  Klingan is going to dominate the paint on both sides of the court as the Crimson Tide have no answer for him.  And the crazy part about UConn's dominance in this tournament is that they have shot poorly from 3-point range, but it hasn't matter.  They are probably due for some positive 3-point shooting regression at the very least.

Alabama is due some negative shooting regression.  The Crimson Tide were on fire in the 2H from 3 against both Clemson and UNC in their last two games.  UConn has the length on the wing to contest more of their shots, and Alabama isn't going to be able to get anything at the rim against Klingan.  Their suspect defense will get exposed as well, and UConn will control the tempo ranking 315th in adjusted tempo, plus they do not allow anything in transition, which is something Alabama relies on.  This is a terrible matchup for the Crimson Tide on all fronts.  Bet UConn Saturday.

20* Indiana State/Seton Hall ESPN No-Brainer on Indiana State ML -150

The Indiana State Sycamores are clearly out to prove a point that they belonged in the NCAA Tournament.  They haven't hung their heads, and they have had all hands on deck for the NIT.  They have won and covered each of their first four games depending when you bet, beating SMU 101-92 as 7.5-point favorites, Minnesota 76-64 as 7-point favorites and Cincinnati 85-81 as opening 2.5-point favorites but closing 5.5-point favorites, and Utah 100-90 as 4.5-point favorites.

I was part of the Indiana State steam with my 25* NIT GOTY on Indiana State ML -145 which closed -245 against Cincinnati.  A big reason for this strong of a pick was that the NIT Final 4 was special to them because it is being played in Indianapolis in their home state of Indiana, so they have a massive following there.  I was also on them against Utah, and I'm back on them for many of the same reasons in the NIT Championship Game.  The Sycamores are 16-1 SU & 11-4-2 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  This will be a de facto home game.

Seton Hall had the luxury of playing their first three games at home in the NIT against St. Joe's, North Texas and UNLV.  Then they got to play Georgia, which came out of nowhere to make the NIT semifinals after getting a late invite due to so many teams opting out.  So this will be a big step up in class for the Pirates, who couldn't have had an easier path to get here.  This will feel like a de facto road game for them for the first time this entire tournament.

The Pirates only have one day to prepare for Indiana State, which ranks 12th in the country in adjusted offense and is one of the most difficult teams to defend because everyone on the court can shoot the 3-pointer.  That's a huge advantage for the Sycamores as well.  Seton Hall is 1-8 ATS in its last eight games when playing its 2nd game in 3 days.  The Pirates are 0-6 ATS in road games against good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game this season.  Bet Indiana State on the Money Line Thursday.

20* Utah/Indiana State ESPN No-Brainer on Indiana State ML -140

The Indiana State Sycamores are clearly out to prove a point that they belonged in the NCAA Tournament.  They haven't hung their heads, and they have had all hands on deck for the NIT.  They have won and covered each of their first three games depending when you bet, beating SMU 101-92 as 7.5-point favorites, Minnesota 76-64 as 7-point favorites and Cincinnati 85-81 as opening 2.5-point favorites but closing 5.5-point favorites.

I was part of that Indiana State steam with my 25* NIT GOTY on Indiana State ML -145 which closed -245.  A big reason for this strong of a pick was that the NIT Final 4 was special to them because it will be played in Indianapolis in their home state of Indiana, so they will have a massive following there.  The Sycamores are 16-1 SU & 11-4-2 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  This will be a de facto home game.

Utah got to play at home in their first three NIT games beating UC-Irvine, Iowa and VCU.  The Utes have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  But it has been a different story for them on the highway.  The Utes are just 5-12 SU & 6-11 ATS in road/neutral games this season.  They are allowing 77.5 points per game in these road/neutral games and their poor defense will get tested by a Indiana State team that ranks 17th in adjusted offense while scoring 84.6 points per game this season.

Utah is 4-18 ATS in its last 22 games when the line is +3 to -3.  The Utes are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 road/neutral games against a team with a winning record.  Utah is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road/neutral games vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games.  Utah is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road/neutral games against good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  Bet Indiana State on the Money Line Tuesday.

20* NC State/Duke Elite 8 No-Brainer on NC State +6.5

What more does NC State have to do to get some respect?  The Wolfpack are 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with their two non-covers both coming by 0.5 points.  They beat UNC and Duke in the ACC Tournament, and they beat Marquette outright as 7.5-point dogs in the Sweet 16.

Now the Wolfpack come back as 6.5-point dogs to a Duke team that they just beat in the ACC Tournament.  They have had a big change in philosophy and have the perfect lineup right now.  The Wolfpack feel like they can't lose at this point and a brimming with confidence.

Duke got the lucky break of Houston's best player in Jamal Shead going out with an ankle injury in the 1H when the Cougars were dominating.  It changed the entire game and Duke still had to sneak out a 54-51 victory without Shead.  They won't be so fortunate against NC State this time around.

NC State played the early game against Marquette on Friday while Duke played the late game against Houston.  I don't think that extra rest and preparation for the Wolfpack is being factored into this line enough.  It almost never is in these tournament scenarios, and it's one of the real edges we have on the books.  

Duke was in a war late with Houston Friday night and now has to come back and play a 5:05 EST start time on Sunday.  The Blue Devils lack depth as it is and won't have much left in the tank for NC State.  The Wolfpack controlled their game with Marquette from start to finish and didn't have to exert a ton of effort as a result.  They will actually be the fresher, more prepared team for this one.

NC State is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 games as a neutral court underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.  The Wolfpack are 7-1 ATS as neutral court dogs or PK this season.  NC State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games against good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  Bet NC State Sunday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Clemson +3.5

The Clemson Tigers are capable of beating anyone in the country.  They have road wins over Alabama and North Carolina this season and should have beaten Duke in a 1-point loss with a weak foul call by the refs just before the buzzer handed the Blue Devils the win.

The Tigers are showing what they are capable of in the NCAA Tournament.  New Mexico was a popular pick to make a run, and the Tigers mopped the floor with the Lobos in a 77-56 win as 2-point dogs.  They controlled the game basically the entire way against Baylor in a 72-64 win as 4.5-point dogs.  And they once again controlled the game the entire way in a 77-72 win over Arizona as 7-point dogs.

I think Clemson's versatility offensively will give Alabama trouble as well.  Both big men PJ Hall (18.4 PPG, 6.5 RPG) and Ian Schieffelin (9.9 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 48.9% 3-pointers) can shoot it from outside, Chase Hunter (12.9 PPG) has been one of the best guards in the tournament, and Joseph Girard (15.0 PPG) is a 41% 3-pointer shooter.

As stated before, Clemson already won on the road at Alabama 85-77 as 8.5-point underdogs in their first meeting this season on November 28th.  Hall had 21 points and 8 rebounds, Girard 16 points, Hunter 15 points and Schieffelin 9 points and 14 rebounds.  It will be more of the same in the rematch.

The Tigers have the rest advantage after playing the first game on Thursday night and had the luxury of resting and scouting Alabama in the late game.  I always think that's a bigger advantage than what gets factored in as the team that finished first and plays two days later gets more rest and preparation.  

Plus, Alabama just lost sharpshooter Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (9.0 PPG, 44.3% 3-pointers) to a head injury, and now Nick Pringle (6.7 PPG, 5.1 RPG) suffered a leg injury against UNC and was noticeably limping.  The Crimson Tide's lack of depth will catch up to them here.  They are running on fumes after their comeback win over North Carolina from double-digits down in the 2H, especially with the crazy pace they play with.

Clemson is 9-1 ATS as an underdog this season.  Alabama is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games off a win by 6 points or less.  Bet Clemson Saturday.

20* Duke/Houston Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Houston -3.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Houston Cougars after needing OT to beat Texas A&M.  That's just a team they do not match up great against as they only beat the Aggies by 4 on a neutral earlier this season.  It's also a very underrated Texas A&M team that was playing its best basketball of the season down the stretch and knocked off several other SEC powerhouses this season.

Keep in mind Houston led by double-digits in the final two minutes before a crazy comeback by the Aggies as well.  I think getting battle-tested in that game will benefit the Cougars moving forward.  Four starters fouled out, and a walk on had to ice the game from the FT line in OT.  That kind of win will only make them stronger moving forward when they get in this position again.

This will essentially be a home game for Houston being played in Dallas, TX, and Houston crushed everyone at home this season going 17-0 with nobody staying within 8 points or them.  I don't think that home-court advantage is being factored into this line enough.  They did not get the benefit of the whistle against Texas A&M, but they will likely get that benefit here with a rowdy Cougar crowd.

But this is more of a fade of Duke than anything.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Blue Devils after an easy route to the Sweet 16 blowing out both Vermont and James Madison.  This is a very soft Duke team, and that will get exposed against one of the most physical teams in the country in Houston.  I also don't expect the Blue Devils to shoot as well as they have thus far as McCain opened the James Madison game 6-of-6 from 3.

Now the Blue Devils must go up against the Cougars, who rank 2nd in adjusted defense behind only Iowa State.  The Blue Devils were already without Caleb Foster (7.7 PPG) heading into the NCAA Tournament, and now Jeremy Roach (14.3 PPG, 44.2% 3-pointers) suffered a finger injury against James Madison that leaves him questionable and far from 100% if he plays.  We are getting the Cougars at a discount in the Sweet 16 and we'll take advantage.  Bet Houston Friday.

25* Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on North Carolina -4

The North Carolina Tar Heels are the most disrespected No. 1 seed in the tournament.  Hubert Davis is also one of the most disrespected head coaches in the country as he is now 8-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament at North Carolina.  The Tar Heels are 10-1 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall with a pair of wins over Duke both home and away this season.  They just crushed Michigan State 85-69 as 4-point favorites in the Round of 32.  Now they are only 4-point favorites against Alabama in the Sweet 16.

The Tar Heels have no weaknesses.  They have two stud guards in RJ Davis (21.3 PPG, 41.1% 3-pointers) and Elliot Cadeau (7.3 PPG, 4.1 APG) who can both get to the rim whenever they want.  They have two stud big men in Armando Bacot (14.4 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 1.5 BPG) and Harrison Ingram (12.2 PPG, 8.8 RPG) and a sharp shooter in Cormac Ryan (11.3 PPG).

But as much as I love North Carolina, this is more of a fade of Alabama than anything.  The Crimson Tide had an easy path to get to the Sweet 16 beating College of Charleston 109-96 and Grand Canyon 72-61.  Both wins come with asterisks because both of those opponents shot very poorly, and Grand Canyon tried to beat them with 1-on-1 ball.

Charleston started the game 1-of-17 from 3-point range, while Grand Canyon shot 2-of-20 from 3 for the game.  The Antelopes also shot just 23-of-37 (62.2%) from the FT line.  The Crimson Tide won't be able to benefit from those poor shooting numbers against a great shooting team in UNC.  This is still the worst defensive team left in the tournament and UNC will expose those holes.  

Plus, Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (9.0 PPG, 44.3% 3-pointers) has been battling concussion issues all season and just suffered another one that forced him from the Grand Canyon game.  He is a great shooter and their best perimeter defender.  I have a hard time believing he will be anywhere near 100% for this one if he plays, and if he does there is a high likelihood he gets knocked out again.  I like UNC to roll either way.  Bet North Carolina Thursday.

25* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana State ML -145

The Indiana State Sycamores are clearly out to prove a point that they belonged in the NCAA Tournament.  They haven't hung their heads, and they have all hands on deck for the NIT.  They have won and covered each of their first two games beating SMU 101-92 as 7.5-point favorites and Minnesota 76-64 as 7-point favorites.

Now on the brink of getting to go to the NIT Final 4, the Sycamores will be 'all in' tonight to get this win.  The NIT Final 4 is special to them because it will be played in Indianapolis in their home state of Indiana, so they will have a massive following if they get there.  I think they get the job done here but I'm taking them on the Money Line instead of laying the -2.5 current spread.

Cincinnati squeaked by San Francisco 73-72 in their NIT opener before blasting Bradley 74-57.  I think that result over a fellow Missouri Valley team is giving the Bearcats more respect than they deserve.  Indiana State also won both of its meeting with Bradley this season.  Cincinnati also got to play at home but will now have to travel to face Indiana State.

The Sycamores are 15-1 SU & 11-3-2 ATS at home this season.  They have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  Cincinnati went just 4-7 SU in true road games this season.  Indiana State is 9-1 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Bet Indiana State on the Money Line Tuesday.

20* Texas A&M/Houston TNT No-Brainer on Texas A&M +10.5

Texas A&M is playing its best basketball of the season here down the stretch just to get into the NCAA Tournament.  The Aggies are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with wins over fellow NCAA Tournament teams in Mississippi State, Kentucky and Nebraska.  They ran out of gas in their 5-point loss to Florida in their 3rd game in 3 days in the SEC Tournament.

No underdog in this NCAA Tournament has a higher ceiling than Texas A&M.  The Aggies have wins over Iowa State, Florida, Tennessee and Kentucky this season.  They even took Houston to the wire already once in non-conference play earlier this season, losing 70-66 as 7-point dogs on a neutral.  Houston even shot 11-of-27 (40.7%) from 3 in that game while the Aggies only shot 38.2% as a team, yet it was only a 4-point margin.  

I think the Aggies can stay within 10.5-points in the rematch.  Asking the Cougars to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  They just faced one of the worst teams in the tournament in Longwood and won easily.  They they lost by 28 to Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship Game, and injuries and lack of depth is a problem for them.  

Texas A&M is elite defensively and will force Houston into some scoring droughts that they are known for.  The Aggies are the No. 1 offensive rebounding team in the country and can hang with the Cougars on the boards and in the physicality department.  The Aggies also potentially have the best player on the court in Wade Taylor IV, who scored 25 points in the 98-83 win over Nebraska.  But he isn't their only weapon as both Obaseki (22) and Radford (20) topped 20 as well.

Buzz Williams is 21-7 ATS in March games as the coach of Texas A&M.  Houston is 1-7 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season.  Bet Texas A&M Sunday.

20* Grand Canyon/Alabama TBS No-Brainer on OVER 168.5

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 7th in adjusted tempo and 3rd in adjusted offense while having the worst defense of the Nate Oats era.  Alabama is 25-8 OVER in all games this season including 13-3 OVER in road games.

The OVER is 11-1 in Alabama's last 12 games overall with 175 or more combined points in 10 of their last 11 games overall.  The Crimson Tide have scored at least 87 points in nine of their last 10 games overall while allowing 88 or more points in eight of their last 10 games.  They are coming off a 109-96 win over Charleston to easily cash the OVER in a game that saw 205 combined points.

I was impressed with how easily Grand Canyon scored on St. Mary's last round.  The Gaels are one of the best defenses in the country.  The Antelopes put up 75 points on them.  They rank 56th in adjusted offense and also rank in the top third of the country in terms of tempo, ranking 116th.  They won't mind getting up and down with Alabama in this one.

Grand Canyon is 42-24 OVER in its last 66 games.  Alabama is 9-1 OVER after allowing 90 points or more this season.  The Antelopes are 27-12 OVER in their last 39 games against a team with a winning record.  Grand Canyon is 15-3 OVER in its last 18 games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game.  Alabama is 20-5 OVER against a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* James Madison/Duke CBS No-Brainer on James Madison +7.5

James Madison is one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about.  The Dukes are 32-3 this season with their three losses coming to Appalachian State (twice) and Southern Miss.  Keep in mind Appalachian State beat Auburn earlier this season.  The upset Michigan State on the road in non-conference, and they just upset Wisconsin 72-61 as 5.5-point dogs last round to prove they belong.  They dominated that game for all 40 minutes and were never in jeopardy of losing.

Duke had a much easier opponent in the opener with a 64-47 win over a bad Vermont team as 12.5-point favorites.  The Blue Devils lost to UNC twice this season, lost at Wake Forest and lost to NC State in the ACC Tournament.  I think the ACC is just way down this season, so it's going to be hard to trust any ACC team outside North Carolina moving forward.  The Blue Devils are on serious upset alert here.

James Madison is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 non-conference games.  The Dukes are 8-2 ATS against a team with a winning record this season.  James Madison is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or better.  Bet James Madison Sunday.

20* Oregon/Creighton TBS Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon +5.5

The Oregon Ducks are the one NCAA Tournament team that stole a bid by winning their conference tournament that I trust to make a deep run.  The Ducks have won five consecutive games including wins over Arizona, Colorado and South Carolina in their last three.  They have all the momentum right now and are playing their best basketball of the season.

A big reason I trust the Ducks is head coach Dana Altman, who is a proven winner in the NCAA Tournament.  Altman is 17-5 ATS in NCAA Tournament games as the coach of Oregon, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when listed as a 9 seed or higher.  The Ducks may also have the two best players ont he floor in C N'Faly Dante (16.5 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 1.9 BPG) and G Jermaine Couisnard (16.1 PPG), who had 40 points against South Carolina last game.  Both of these guys have taken their games to the next level down the stretch.

Creighton was in a dog fight with lowly Akron until late in the 2H last game.  They won 77-60 despite shooting 56.5% from the field and Akron only shooting 37.9%.  The Zips shot 6-of-27 (22%) from 3 as well, which is uncharacteristic for them, while the Bluejays shot 10-of-17 (59%) from 3.  They won't have those kinds of shooting numbers in their favor here when they take a big step up in class against surging Ducks.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

20* Oakland/NC State TBS No-Brainer on Oakland +6.5

NC State just won five games in five days to win the ACC Tournament.  Four of the five games were decided by single-digits, so it took everything they had and then some.  I question how much the Wolfpack have left in the tank for the NCAA Tournament.

They got through Texas Tech on pure adrenaline, plus the fact that the Red Raiders play zero defense.  This is the game I think all these games will take their toll as the Wolfpack will now be playing their 2nd game in 3 days.  They are going to have to think because Oakland runs a great zone defense, and it's a very tough scheme to prepare for in one day.  I don't think NC State will be ready for it.

I like that the Golden Grizzlies acted like they expected to beat Kentucky after the game.  They feel like they belong, and I expect them to pull the outright upset here Saturday over the Wolfpack to advance to the Sweet 16.  They will have the best player on the floor in F Trey Townsend (16.9 PPG, 7.9 RPG), and he is surrounded by two great shooters in Blake Lampman (12.8 PPG, 36.5% 3-pointers) and Jack Gohike (12.8 PPG, 37.8% 3-pointers), who hit 10 3's himself to lead the upset of Kentucky.

The win over Kentucky was no fluke as Oakland went 2-3 SU & 5-0 ATS against Ohio State, Illinois, Drake, Xavier and Kentucky this season taking all five of those teams to the wire despite playing all five on the road.  The Golden Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS in their last six games off an upset win as a road underdog.  Bet Oakland Saturday.

25* Round of 32 GAME OF THE YEAR on North Carolina -3.5

This will feel like a home game for the North Carolina Tar Heels being played in Charlotte.  That's not being factored into this line enough.  The Tar Heels are 9-1 SU & 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games overaall with a pair of wins over Duke both home and away this season.

The Tar Heels have no weaknesses.  They have two stud guards in RJ Davis (21.4 PPG) and Elliot Cadeau (7.3 PPG, 4.1 APG) who can both get to the rim whenever they want.  They have two stud big men in Armando Bacot (14.3 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 1.5 BPG) and Harrison Ingram (12.1 PPG, 8.9 RPG) and a sharp shooter in Cormac Ryan (11.3 PPG).

Michigan State was fortunate to get a bid into the NCAA Tournament.  The Spartans went 3-5 SU in their final eight games this season including home losses to Iowa and Ohio State.   They are prone to scoring droughts and are not the best shooting team.  They only make 12 FT per game and struggle to get to the rim as well.  Any droughts in this one and they are going to get run out of the building.

North Carolina is 7-0 ATS in its last seven NCAA Tournament games.  This line should at least be -6 in favor of the Tar Heels.  Bet North Carolina Saturday.

20* Gonzaga/Kansas CBS No-Brainer on Gonzaga -3.5

Gonzaga made easy work of an upstart McNeese State team 86-65 and should still be fresh as a result.  The Bulldogs improved to 10-1 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall playing their best basketball of the season here down the stretch.  They upset both Kentucky and St. Mary's on the road during this stretch.

Kansas shot 60.3% from the field and still needed a blown foul call from the refs to put away a bad Samford team 93-89 as 7.5-point favorites in the opener.  It continued a trend of poor play to close the season as the Jayhawks are now 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.

Head coach Bill Self announced that Kevin McCullar Jr. will be out for the NCAA Tournament prior to it.  That leaves the Jayhawks very short-handed and this is a tough spot for them having to play their 2nd game in 3 days after needing to go to the wire to beat Samford on Thursday.  They went with basically a 6-man rotation against Samford and had four starters play anywhere from 35 to 39 minutes apiece.  They will wear down in the 2H as the Bulldogs pull away after intermission.

This will feel like a home game for the Bulldogs with it being played out West in Salt Lake City.  Kansas is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road/neutral games against good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  The Jayhawks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after scoring 85 points or more.  Bet Gonzaga Saturday.

20* James Madison/Wisconsin CBS Late-Night BAILOUT on James Madison +4.5

James Madison is one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about.  The Dukes went 31-3 this season with their three losses coming to Appalachian State (twice) and Southern Miss.  Keep in mind Appalachian State beat Auburn earlier this season.

But what lets me know James Madison can play with Wisconsin is the fact that they went to Michigan State and upset the Spartans in East Lansing.  They won't be scared at all to face a Big Ten opponent like Wisconsin, and I like the fact that this game is being played in Brooklyn, NY so the Badgers likely won't have many fans there.  It's less than a 6 hour drive for James Madison fans and they will have the home-court advantage if anything.

Wisconsin is a tired team after having to play 4 games in 4 days including an OT game against Purdue in the semifinals.  They ran out of gas in the 2H against Illinois in the Championship Game and lost.  I don't think they'll be fully recovered in time for the Round of 64.  James Madison made easy work of its three opponents in the Sun Belt Tournament winning by a combined 42 points and has been off since March 11th.  The Dukes will be the much fresher team for this matchup.

James Madison is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 non-conference games.  The Dukes are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games against a team with a winning record.  I think the Dukes make the Sweet 16, and it starts with an upset win over Wisconsin Friday night.  Bet James Madison Friday.

20* NCAA Tournament TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Charleston/Alabama OVER 170.5

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 11th in adjusted tempo and 3rd in adjusted offense while having the worst defense of the Nate Oats era.  Alabama is 24-8 OVER in all games this season including 12-3 OVER in road games.

The OVER is 10-1 in Alabama's last 11 games overall with 175 or more combined points in nine of their last 10 games overall.  The Crimson Tide have scored at least 87 points in eight of their last nine games overall while allowing 88 or more points in seven of their last nine games.

Charleston also likes to run ranking 59th in adjusted tempo and 58th in adjusted offense while just 175th in adjusted defense.  The Cougars have elite guards and can dice up this Alabama defense just like every other team with elite guards has this season.  Alabama likes to get to the rim and will be up against a Charleston defense that is soft inside ranking 5th-to-last in the entire country in defending shots at the rim.

Charleston is 11-1 OVER in its last 11 road games off a close win by 3 points or less against a conference opponent.  This will likely be the highest scoring game of the entire opening round.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NCAA Tournament BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue -26.5

This is more of a fade of Grambling State than anything.  The SWAC ranks 33rd of 33 conferences according to KenPom.  One look at Grambling State's results in non-conference play and it's easy to see why.

In their first 13 games this season, the Tigers went 3-10 SU with their three wins coming against UNT Dallas, Champion Christian and Biblical Studies, who aren't even ranked in KenPom.  The 10 losses were absolutely laughable.  They included blowout losses by 32 to Colorado, by 55 to Iowa State, by 30 to Dayton and by 39 to Florida.

Now Grambling State has to face the best team they have faced yet in No. 1 seed Purdue.  It's also a highly motivated Boilermakers team after losing to Fairleigh Dickinson last year.  They won't take Grambling State lightly, and it's a very tough spot for the Tigers considering they had a 15-point 2H comeback against Montana State on Wednesday and had to go to OT in an 88-81 victory.

Grambling State was able to get to the rim against Montana State and take advantage of the undersized Bobcats in the 2H.  They won't be able to do that against Purdue, which ranks 45th in average height led by mountain Zach Edey inside.  The Boilermakers will force the Tigers to try and shoot over the top of them from 3.  Grambling State averages just five 3-point makes on 15 attempts per game.  It's just not their game, and the matchup is a terrible one for them.

Purdue is 8-2-1 ATS in non-conference games this season.  That includes a 99-67 win over Texas Southern as 32-point favorites, which is a fellow SWAC team and ranked very similarly to Grambling State in KenPom.  Grambling State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. teams that average 40 or more rebounds per game.  This line should be 30 or higher.  Bet Purdue Friday.

25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on UAB +7

UAB can beat anyone when they are on their game.  The Blazers went 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their final five games of the season beating Temple by 28 as 6.5-point road favorites, SMU by 4 as 1.5-point road favorites, and then made easy work of Wichita State by 12, USF by 10 and Temple by 16 en route to winning the AAC Tournament.

I think the AAC as a whole is better than it gets credit for which is a big reason why Florida Atlantic didn't run through it like everyone expected.  And UAB showed well in the non-conference, too.  They lost by 2 to Bradley, by 1 to Clemson, upset Maryland and upset Drake.  They can play with San Diego State.

I think San Diego State gets too much respect for making the run to the championship game last year.  They were in dog fights every game and were simply fortunate in close games.  They are the most over-seeded team from the Mountain West getting a No. 5 seed.  The rest of the Mountain West got the shaft, and we'll take advantage here and fade the over-seeded Aztecs.

San Diego State is a tired team after making the MWC Championship Game only to lose to New Mexico.  They needed OT to beat UNLV, and five of their last six games were decided by 8 points or fewer.  I question how much gas they have left in the tank.  I know it won't be enough to put away UAB by 7-plus points, especially since the Aztecs struggle to get easy buckets on offense and are a terrible 3-point shooting team, ranking 307th in 3-point percentage at 31.3%.

UAB is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games following a win.  The Blazers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 tournament games.  The Aztecs are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games after playing two consecutive games as favorites.  UAB is 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Blazers are 15-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  UAB is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game.  SDSU is 0-7 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or better this season.

 The Aztecs haven't been nearly as good away from Viejas Arena going just 10-9 SU & 5-14 ATS in all games played away from home.  This is also a sleepy start time for a West coast team with a 1:45 EST which will be like a 10:45 AM body clock game for the Aztecs.  They aren't used to playing this early in the day.  The Blazers are used to playing at this time being in the East.  Bet UAB Friday.

20* NCAA Tournament DOG OF THE WEEK on McNeese State +6

McNeese State is one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about.  The Cowboys went 30-3 this season including a 76-65 road win at VCU, an 81-60 road win at UAB and a 87-76 road win at Michigan in the non-conference.  VCU was one win from the Big Dance, UAB made the Big Dance, and Michigan was playing much better back when McNeese State beat them.

Gonzaga has taken a big step back this season.  The Bulldogs did not deserve a No. 5 seed.  They were just a bubble team prior to beating St. Mary's in the regular season finale.  They went on to lose to St. Mary's in the WCC Tournament.  The Bulldogs have a lot of defensive holes and they aren't a great shooting team.

One thing I love about McNeese State is they take care of the basketball and force turnovers.  The Cowboys rank 25th in turnover percentage on offense and 6th in turnover percentage on defense.  They also rank 7th in 3-point shooting, making 39.4% on the season as a team.  They have a lot of big-time transfers for head coach Will Wade, including TCU transfer Shahada Wells (17.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 3.0 SPG), who will be the best player on the court.  Bet McNeese State Thursday.

20* Duquesne/VCU Atlantic 10 No-Brainer on Duquesne +2.5

Duquesne has been grossly undervalued since late January.  The Dukes won seven consecutive games and have gone 14-3 SU in their last 17 games overall.  They beat Atlantic 10 favorite Dayton 65-57 and followed it up with a 70-60 win over St. Bonaventure yesterday to prove how good they are and that they belong.  They'll remain playing with a chip on their shoulder today as underdogs to VCU.

VCU has had an easier path to the Championship Game and their games have bene closer than Duquesne.  Also, the Dukes won the lone regular season meeting 69-59 as 5-point road dogs at VCU on March 5th, which is a very tough place to win.  It will be more of the same in the rematch today on a neutral.

Duquesne is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a neutral court underdog or PK.  The Dukes are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a good team that wins 60-80% of their games.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Duquesne Sunday.

20* Marquette/UConn Big East No-Brainer on UConn -8.5

The UConn Huskies are a juggernaut and the best team in the country.  They have gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall despite being a public team with everyone knowing how good they are.  The books just haven't been able to set their spreads high enough.

Marquette is without PG Tyler Kolek (15.0 PPG, 7.6 APG, 40% 3-pointers) and cannot compete with UConn without him.  They lost 74-67 as 5-point home underdogs without him, and 81-53 as 7-point road dogs with him.  This will essentially be a home game for the Huskies as their fans take over Madison Square Garden.  Playing their 3rd game in 3 days including one in OT, the Golden Eagles' lack of depth will really get tested today.

UConn is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 neutral court games.  One of those losses came by 2 to Marquette in the Big East Tournament last year, and the Huskies have not forgotten.  They will get their revenge in blowout fashion tonight.  Bet UConn Saturday.

25* CBB UPSET SHOCKER GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +5

The T-Mobile Center in Kansas City is known as Hilton South.  The Iowa State Cyclones always get a great following for the Big 12 Tournament and it's like the same home-court advantage they have when playing in Hilton, and they didn't lose once at home this season.  They made easy work of Kansas State 76-57 in the opener and easy work of Baylor 76-62 yesterday.

Nobody has played Houston tougher than Iowa State.  The Cyclones won 57-53 at home in their first meeting and lost 73-65 to the Cougars on the road in their 2nd meeting.  Nobody else stayed within single-digits of Houston on the road.  But now it will be the Cyclones with the home-court advantage with probably the best following from fans in the entire country for their conference tournament.

Houston is short-handed right now and not a very deep team.  That makes it tougher for them to play 3 games in 3 days.  They are without Joseph Tugler and Ramon Walker, plus J'Wan Roberts is battling a knee injury and questionable for this championship game.  He is quietly their most important player doing all the dirty work down low, and Tugler also provided some of it before he went out.

TJ Otzelberger is 14-2 ATS vs. teams who average 9 or more steals per game as the coach of Iowa State.  The Cyclones are 29-13 ATS in their last 42 conference tournament games.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on South Florida ML -150

South Florida is 24-6 this season including 17-2 in AAC play and still lacking the respect they deserve in the AAC Tournament.  Somehow this team is on the wrong side of the bubble, and the Bulls have been playing with a chip on their shoulder because of it.  That chip will be bigger than ever in the AAC Tournament.

South Florida is coming off an 81-59 win over ECU as 8-point favorites to improve to 22-2 SU in its last 24 games overall.  One of those losses came 75-71 at UAB on January 7th in their lone meeting this season.  The Bulls want revenge from that defeat now and are fresh after blowing out ECU yesterday.

UAB beat Wichita State 72-60 yesterday.  But Wichita State was playing its 3rd game in 3 days after two tough games that went down to the wire.  The Blazers won't have that same luxury today against the fresh Bulls, who will get their revenge and win this game.

USF is 8-0 ATS after winning six or seven of its last eight games this season.  Bet South Florida on the Money Line Saturday.

25* Conference Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State ML -115

The T-Mobile Center in Kansas City is known as Hilton South.  The Cyclones always get a great following for the Big 12 Tournament and it's like the same home-court advantage they have when playing in Hilton, and they didn't lose once at home this season.  They made easy work of Kansas State 76-57 yesterday and will still be fresh today as a result.

Now the Cyclones have their sights set on revenge from a 70-68 loss at Baylor in their lone meeting this season.  They hit a 3-pointer just after that buzzer that counted originally but was waved off.  They had a shot to win despite Baylor shooting 12-of-23 (52.2%) from 3-point range, and the Bears won't shoot that well again.

Baylor needed a 2H comeback to beat Cincinnati 68-56 yesterday.  That was a tired Cincinnati team playing their 3rd game in 3 days as well.  I think the Bears are getting way too much respect here as essentially a PK against Iowa State in a game that will feel like a home game for the Cyclones as it always does in Hilton South.

Iowa State is 28-13 ATS in its last 41 conference tournament games.  Baylor is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after covering four of its last five games.  The Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. top teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game after 15-plus games.  The Cyclones are 8-1 ATS in their last eight games against a good team that wins 60-80% of their games this season.  Bet Iowa State on the Money Line Friday.

20* St. John's/UConn Big East No-Brainer on St. John's +9.5

St. John's has been on a tear since head coach Rick Pitino called out his team.  They have gone 6-0 SU in their last six games overall including an 80-66 upset win over Creighton and blowout wins over Butler by 23 on the road and Seton Hall by 19 in the opener of the Big East Tournament yesterday.

Now the Red Storm have their sights set on revenge on the UConn Huskies.  They led UConn at halftime in each of their first two meetings this season before falling apart in the 2H.  It has been a problem for the Red Storm all season until lately.  They are closing these games out, and I think they will close this one out too with a great chance to pull off the outright upset.

Asking UConn to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  UConn was in more of a dog fight with Xavier yesterday than they should have been trailing 10-0 early.  The Huskies thus had to play their starters in the 2H to put them away.  They have benefited from a pretty easy schedule here down the stretch and will get more of a fight than they bargained for from the Red Storm here tonight.  Bet St. John's Friday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado -3.5

Colorado is a dangerous team when fully healthy and are proving it here down the stretch.  The Buffaloes are 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall with four wins by double-digits, plus road wins over both USC and Oregon.  That includes their 89-65 home win over Utah on February 24th.

It should be another blowout in the Buffaloes' favor in the rematch due to their rest advantage after getting a bye into the quarterfinals, while Utah had to play Arizona State yesterday.  While the Utes made easy work of the Sun Devils, things will come much tougher for them today against a Colorado team that has a legit shot to run the table and win the Pac-12 Tournament.

Utah is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 points or more, and 0-6 ATS when revenging a double-digit loss this season.  Bet Colorado Thursday.

20* Big East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Villanova/Marquette UNDER 143.5

Villanova is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Wildcats rank 348th in adjusted tempo and 14th in adjusted defense and struggle to get easy buckets on offense.  The UNDER is 8-0 in Villanova's last eight games overall with 134 or fewer combined points in 11 consecutive games, which makes for an 11-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 143.5-point total.

Marquette is an UNDER team in its current state.  The Golden Eagles are without G Tyler Kolek (15.0 PPG, 40% 3-pointers) right now.  Kolek scored 53 points combined in his two meetings with Villanova earlier this season, so not having him on the court in the 3rd meeting here will benefit the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Baylor -4.5

Baylor got a bye into the quarterfinals and has a massive rest advantage over Cincinnati.  The Bearcats will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days after a hard-fought 90-85 win over West Virginia in the opener, and then beating a dead Kansas team yesterday that was without its two best players in Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson.

Now the Bearcats take a big step up in class here against a Baylor team that is fully healthy and hitting on all cylinders right now.  The Bears just got Langston Love back from injury for their run through these conference and NCAA Tournaments.  Cincinnati is not a deep team and playing their 3rd game in 3 days will really test that depth.

Baylor is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games after allowing 40 points or more in the first half of two consecutive games, including a perfect 9-0 ATS since Scott Drew took over in Waco.  Cincinnati is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference opponent.  Bet Baylor Thursday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Ohio State -1.5

Firing head coach Chris Holtmann was the best thing that could have happened to Ohio State.  The Buckeyes have gone 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their two losses both coming on the road to Wisconsin and Minnesota.  They upset Purdue at home and Michigan State on the road during this stretch.

The Buckeyes have all of the momentum heading into the Big Ten Tournament and I trust them to get revenge on Iowa after falling 79-77 to the Hawkeyes in Iowa City on February 2nd.  The Hawkeyes don't play defense and they lack good big men inside.  They are just a very hard team to trust.

Ohio State is 8-1 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 45% shooting or higher over the last two seasons.  The Buckeyes are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games when revenging a same-season loss.  Bet Ohio State Thursday.

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on Loyola-Chicago -2

Loyola-Chicago got a bye into the quarterfinals and has the rest advantage over St. Bonaventure today.  The Bonnies were life and dead with La Salle in a 75-73 win yesterday.  They only have a 7-man rotation and their starters played 40, 40, 39, 34 and 22 minutes yesterday.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Ramblers today.  Bet Loyola-Chicago Thursday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Syracuse ML -125

The Syracuse Orange are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  They have gone 4-1 SU in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming on the road to Clemson on Senior Day.  They are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against NC State this season beating the Wolfpack by 12 at home and by 4 on the road.

The Orange have the rest advantage over the Wolfpack today.  They got a bye into this round, while NC State was life and dead with a very bad Louisville team yesterday, winning 94-85.  Not to mention, they are without G DJ Horne (16.8 PPG, 42.9% 3-pointers), who is their best player.  They only have an 8-man rotation and Taylor and Morsell both played 39 minutes yesterday.

NC State is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games after grabbing 5 or fewer offensive rebounds last game.  Bet Syracuse on the Money Line Wednesday.

25* College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa +2

The Iowa Hawkeyes have battled their way back onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games overall with home wins over Wisconsin and Penn State, as well as upset road wins over Michigan State and Northwestern.

Now the Hawkeyes want revenge from their lone loss during this stretch which came 95-85 at Illinois.  That was a close game throughout before the Fighting Illini pulled away in the final minutes.  Iowa actually led 66-61 with 11 minutes left.  They know they can play with this team, and now they get them at home where they are 12-3 SU this season.

This is a terrible spot for Illinois.  The Fighting Illini are coming off a 77-71 home loss to Purdue in which they had a shot to win the Big Ten regular season title had they won that game.  But now they are locked into the #2 seed in the Big Ten Tournament and have nothing to play for.  They won't be that motivated to beat Iowa again after just beating them two weeks ago.  I expect a very flat effort from the Fighting Illini as a result.

Iowa is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after a game with 24 or more assists.  The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games after scoring 75 points or more in four consecutive games.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Iowa Sunday.

20* Drake/Indiana State MVC No-Brainer on UNDER 151.5

MVC Tournament UNDERS have been a great bet for the last 20 years hitting around 65%.  That includes 7-3 to start the 2024 MVC Tournament which would be 8-2 if the Illinois-Chicago/Southern Illinois game didn't go to OT.  It would also be 9-1 without that OT game if you got a good number on the Drake/Bradley game yesterday which we had at 140, but closed 138 and landed 139.  The Enterprise Center in St. Louis is clearly one of the worst shooting backgrounds in the country.

I love betting UNDERS in winner-take-all games like this MVC Championship Game.  Nerves are rampant, defensive intensity is high and these games just seem to slow down.  I think we're getting extra value on the UNDER after Indiana State shot the lights out yesterday making 57.4% as a team and an unsustainable 15-of-29 (51.7%) from 3 against Northern Iowa.  That was the only MVC Tournament game that went way over in this entire tournament.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and this will be their 3rd meeting this season.  After combining for 167 points in their first meeting in a FT fest, these teams combined for just 142 points in their 2nd meeting.  I expect this 3rd and final meeting to finish in the low 140's as well.

Drake has allowed 75 or fewer points in 10 of its last 13 games overall.  That includes an average of 63.7 points per game in its last three games.  Indiana State has allowed 77 or fewer points in seven consecutive games and 11 of its last 12.  I don't expect either team to top 75 points in this one.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Bradley/Drake MVC No-Brainer on UNDER 140

MVC Tournament UNDERS have been a great bet for the last 20 years hitting around 65%.  That includes 7-1 to start the 2024 MVC Tournament which would be 8-0 if the Illinois-Chicago/Southern Illinois game didn't go to OT.  The Enterprise Center in St. Louis is clearly one of the worst shooting backgrounds in the country.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between Drake and Bradley, who met in the MVC Tournament Championship Game last year.  Drake won that game 77-51 for just 128 combined points.  They also combined for 134 points four meetings ago, and 141 and 140 points in their first two regular season meetings this season.  These teams met in the regular season finale so familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  They combined to shoot 32-of-33 from the FT line yet still only combined for 140 points.  The 3rd and final meeting here will stay UNDER 140.

Bradley has really stepped up its defense down the stretch allowing 59.0 points per game and 35.3% shooting in its last five games.  Drake showed what it is capable of defensively when focused in its last two games holding Bradley to 66 and Evansville to 58 points. Drake is 6-0 UNDER in its last six March games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Kentucky/Tennessee OVER 166

Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Wildcats rank 12th in adjusted tempo and 8th in adjusted offense, plus this is one of John Calipari's worst defensive teams since he took over in Lexington.  Kentucky is 22-8 OVER in all games this season, including 4-0 in their last four with 170 or more combined points in all four.

Tennessee ranks 73rd in adjusted tempo and 21st in adjusted offense.  The Volunteers have their best offensive team of the Rick Barnes era and they are playing much faster this season as a result.  That was on display in their 103-92 win at Kentucky on February 3rd in their first meeting this season for 195 combined points.  It should be more of the same in the rematch.

The Wildcats are 18-2 OVER after a combined score of 165 points or more this season.  The books just haven't been able to set their totals high enough this season and they have failed to do so again today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Kentucky/Tennessee CBS No-Brainer on Kentucky +8.5

The Tennessee Vols just won 66-59 at South Carolina to clinch the outright SEC title.  They already beat Kentucky 103-92 on the road in their first meeting this season as well.  I think this is the ultimate flat spot for the Volunteers as a result.

Kentucky wants revenge from that defeat, plus they have a lot to play for with a first-round bye in the SEC Tournament at stake.  The Wildcats have played much better since that defeat back on February 3rd.  They have gone 7-2 SU since with the two losses coming by a combined 5 points.  They upset Auburn 70-59 as 8.5-point road dogs and they have what it takes to take down Tennessee, too.

Kentucky is 7-1 ATS in road games off two consecutive games as a favorite this season.  You rarely get the opportunity to back the Wildcats as this big of underdogs, and we'll take advantage today.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

20* Northern Iowa/Indiana State MVC No-Brainer on UNDER 147.5

MVC Tournament UNDERS have been a great bet for the last 20 years hitting around 65%.  That includes 7-1 to start the 2024 MVC Tournament which would be 8-0 if the Illinois-Chicago/Southern Illinois game didn't go to OT.  The Enterprise Center in St. Louis is clearly one of the worst shooting backgrounds in the country.

Each of the last two meetings between Indiana State and Northern Iowa went UNDER the total in the regular season.  Indiana State won 80-62 on the road for 142 combined points in their final meeting last season, and the Sycamores won 77-66 for 143 combined points in their lone meeting this season.

Northern Iowa has been playing elite defense here down the stretch holding eight of their last 10 opponents to 71 points or fewer.  They held a high-octane Belmont offense to just 62 points yesterday in their 67-62 win that saw 129 combined points.  Indiana State is better defensively than it gets credit for.  The Sycamores have held nine of their last 11 opponents to 74 points or fewer.  They held Missouri State to 59 points yesterday in a 75-59 win that saw just 134 combined points.

Northern Iowa is 6-0 UNDER off three or more consecutive wins this season. The Panthers are 24-10 UNDER in their last 34 conference tournament games.  The Sycamores are 8-2 UNDER in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Villanova ML +105

Villanova has played its way onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament with its best basketball of the season here down the stretch.  The Wildcats have gone 6-3 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with their three losses all coming on the road to UConn, Seton Hall and Xavier.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home during this stretch with four blowout wins over Providence by 18, Seton Hall by 26, Butler by 10 and Georgetown by 28.

The Wildcats could punch their ticket with a 2nd win over Creighton this season and will be max motivated to do so.  They beat Creighton 68-66 on the road in their first meeting this season.  They are 8-2 SU in their last 10 home meetings with the Bluejays and have really had their number.

Creighton is just 3-3 SU in its last six Big East road games with two narrow wins over Xavier and Seton Hall as well as a blowout win over reeling Butler.  They lost by 14 at UConn, lost by 4 at Providence and lost by 14 at St. John's in their most recent road game.  They are clearly vulnerable away from home.   The Bluejays don't have much to play for either as they are locked into the 2nd or 3rd seed in the Big East Tournament.

Villanova is 6-0 ATS in home games with a total of 130 to 139.5 this season.  The Wildcats are 8-2 ATS in home games when playing just their 2nd game in a week this season.  Villanova is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games vs. teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game.  Bet Villanova on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Oklahoma/Texas ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 144.5

Oklahoma is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Sooners rank 223rd in adjusted tempo and 25th in adjusted defense.  The Sooners are without John Hugley IV (8.4 PPG, 54.8% FG's) and could be without Javian McCollum (13.6 PPG), who missed their last game with a shoulder injury and is questionable.

Texas also plays slower than average ranking 209th in adjusted tempo and 47th in adjusted defense.  Leading scorer Dylan Disu (16.1 PPG, 51.4% 3-pointers) was forced from their last game early with a knee injury and is questionable to go Saturday as well.

But the biggest reason for this UNDER play is the head-to-head history between hated rivals Oklahoma and Texas.  The Sooners and Longhorns have combined for 139 or fewer points at the end of regulation five of their last six meetings and 146 in the one that didn't.  This has been an UNDER series.

Oklahoma is 7-1 UNDER in its last eight games vs. a good team that wins 60-80% of its games.  The Sooners are 20-8 UNDER in their last 28 games when revenging a home loss by 10 points or more.  Rodney Terry is 9-1 UNDER after allowing 90 points or more as a head coach.  Terry is 10-1 UNDER after a combined score of 175 points or more as a head coach.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Arkansas/Alabama OVER 173.5

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted offense and 11th in adjusted tempo in the entire country.  They have scored 81 or more points in 10 of their last 11 games, including 95 or more in seven of those.

Nate Oats has one of the worst defensive teams he has ever had at Alabama this season as well allowing 88 or more points in six of their last eight games.  The OVER is 8-1 in Alabama's last nine games overall with 166 or more combined points in eight of those nine games, including 175 or more in seven of those.

Arkansas likes to run as well ranking 34th in adjusted tempo, so this game is going to be played at a rapid pace.  The Razorbacks have scored at least 82 points in four consecutive games.  They have also allowed 83 or more in three striaght, which is really bad when you consider LSU and Vanderbilt were two of those teams.

Arkansas is 12-1 OVER following a win this season.  The Razorbacks are 10-1 OVER after scoring 80 points or more this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Arkansas/Alabama ESPN No-Brainer on Arkansas +15

The Arkansas Razorbacks have been fighting hard for head coach Eric Musselman here down the stretch.  They have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They only lost by 4 as 11-point dogs at Mississippi State, upset Texas A&M 78-71 as 11.5-point road dogs and took Kentucky to the wire in a 9-point loss at 13-point dogs in their last three road games.

Now the Razorbacks are catching too many points today against a reeling, overrated Alabama team that doesn't play defense.  The Crimson Tide are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They needed OT to beat Florida at home and needed to overcome a double-digit 2H deficit to beat Ole Miss.  They lost by 22 at Kentucky, by 7 at home to Tennessee and by 18 at Florida.  They have allowed 81 or more points in all five games and seven of their last eight games overall.

Alabama is 0-7 ATS off two consecutive games where they had five or fewer steals.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Bradley -10.5

Head coach Brian Wardle always has his Bradley Braves (21-10) playing their best basketball in the MVC Tournament.  The Braves will be ready for another run in 2024, and it starts today against lowly Illinois-Chicago (12-20).

Bradley has a rest advantage after getting a bye into the quarterfinals while Illinois-Chicago needed 2 OT to beat Southern Illinois 84-82 last night.  It's safe to say the Flames will be running on fumes tonight.  Three starters played at least 46 minutes for the Flames last night and they have just a 7-man rotation with zero depth  They won't have anything left in the tank for Bradley.

Bradley beat Illinois-Chicago 77-59 on the road and 85-73 at home.  So they have already covered this 10.5-point spread in both meetings this season, and that domination should continue in the 3rd and final meeting given their rest advantage.  Bet Bradley Friday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Evansville/Drake UNDER 150.5

MVC Tournament UNDERS have been a great bet for the last decade hitting around 65%.  That includes 3-1 to start the 2024 MVC Tournament which would be 4-0 if the Illinois-Chicago/Southern Illinois game didn't go to OT.  The Enterprise Center in St. Louis is clearly one of the worst shooting backgrounds in the country.

Evansville beat Illinois State 59-53 for just 112 combined points yesterday.  This opening total of 150.5 against Drake has been set way too high today.  Evansville is terrible offensively ranking 232nd in adjusted offense while averaging just 61.3 points per game in its last four game.  Drake ranks 85th in adjusted defense and will hold the Purple Aces in check.

Drake beat Evansville 97-48 for 145 combined points in their first meeting this season.  Drake won 78-75 in the 2nd meeting but both teams shot lights out, which is unlikely to happen again.  Drake shot 13-of-27 (48.1%) from 3 while Evansville shot 50% from the field and 8-of-18 (44.4%) from 3.  Yet that game still only saw 153 combined points.  This game likely won't be as close with Drake winning in a blowout, which should mean no FT's at the end in the foul game.

Evansville is a perfect 11-0 UNDER after four straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or fewer turnovers this season.  The Purple Aces are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

25* MVC Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Belmont +1.5

Belmont is playing better than anyone in the MVC since they got fully healthy.  I bet the Bruins +2100 to win the MVC Tournament and you can still find +1900 out there heading into this game.  You'll likely see me back this team in every game until they lose because they are grossly undervalued.

Belmont is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in its last nine games overall with its lone loss coming on the road to Drake, which didn't lose a single home game this season.  Seven of the eight wins came by 15 points or more so these games haven't even been close.  That includes their 86-61 win over Valparaiso in the opener of the MVC Tournament.  They led by 26 at halftime and were able to get their starters rest in the 2H and will still be fresh for this game.

While most MVC teams have struggled shooting at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis over the years including to open this tournament, Belmont has not.  The Bruins shot 52.4% as a team and made 10 3-pointers yesterday.  This is one of the best shooting teams in the country since they got healthy, shooting 47.4% or better in seven of their last eight games, including 50% or better in five of them.

Northern Iowa can't match Belmont in the shooting department and has slipped defensively this season.  Belmont shot 52.6% in a 90-70 win at Northern Iowa in their first meeting this season.  The Bruins shot a solid 47.5% and 40% from 3 in a home loss to the Panthers in the rematch, but they weren't fully healthy for that game.  Ja'Kobi Gillespie (17.5 PPG, 57% FG)  scored 18 points in that first meeting which was a win, and he didn't play in the game that they lost to UNI.  Having him healthy has made all the difference for this team.  Bet Belmont Friday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt/Kentucky OVER 160.5

Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Wildcats rank 14th in adjusted tempo and 8th in adjusted offense, plus this is one of John Calipari's worst defensive teams since he took over in Lexington.  Kentucky is 21-8 OVER in all games this season, including 14-3 OVER in its 17 home games where it is scoring 94.2 points per game on 53.5% shooting while also allowing 79.1 points per game at home.

Kentucky beat Vanderbilt 109-77 for 186 combined points in the first meeting this season on February 6th.  So we have 25.5 points to spare with this 160.5-point total in the rematch.  It should be another shootout, and Vanderbilt scored 77 points despite shooting just 35.5% from the field in that first meeting.  I have to expect they'll shoot a little better in the rematch.

The Wildcats are 17-2 OVER after a combined score of 165 points or more this season.  Kentucky is 8-0 OVER in SEC home games this season.  The books just haven't been able to set their totals high enough this season and they have failed to do so again tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on St. John's -17

St. John's has played its way back on the bubble by winning three consecutive games.  The last two were very impressive as the Red Storm upset Creighton 80-66 as 3-point home dogs and crushed fellow bubble team Butler 82-59 on the road.  Now the Red Storm have had the last five days off to rest and get ready for DePaul.

St. John's crushed DePaul 85-57 at home as 22-point favorites in their first meeting on February 6th.  Now they come back as only 17-point favorites in the rematch which is quite the discount.  I have a motivated favorite here trying to make the NCAA Tournament, so the Red Storm will not take their foot off the gas.

Fading DePaul has been a great move here of late.  The Blue Demons are a mess after firing head coach Tony Stubblefield and just ready for this season to be over.  They are 0-18 SU & 6-12 ATS in Big East play this season while getting outscored by 23.7 points per game.  They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall eight of those losses by double-digits and seven by 19 points or more.

DePaul is 1-7 ATS as a home underdog of 10 points or more this season.  St. John's is 8-2 ATS vs. teams that average 6 or fewer steals per game this season.  The Blue Demons are 1-11 ATS vs. good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game this season.  Bet St. John's Tuesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Purdue/Illinois OVER 163.5

Illinois is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Fighting Illini rank 57th in adjusted tempo and 3rd in adjusted offense this season.  Brad Underwood has by far his best offensive team in his time at Illinois, but it's also his worst defensive team.  The Fighting Illini look to run every chance they get and nobody has been able to stop them.

Illinois is 9-0 OVER in its last nine games overall with 162 or more combined points in all nine games.  The OVER is 13-1 in their 14 games overall as well.  The books just haven't been able to set their totals high enough probably because of the perception of the Big Ten, and we're getting another good value on the OVER 163.5 points today.

Now Illinois faces Purdue, which also doesn't mind playing fast and does it efficiently ranking 2nd in the country in offensive efficiency.  Purdue beat Illinois 83-78 in their first meeting this season for 161 combined points.  This despite Illinois not having its best player in Terrance Shannon Jr. (22.0 PPG).  He makes all the difference for the Fighting Illini and he has scored at least 23 points in six of his last seven games overall.  Illinois has looked to run a lot more with Shannon Jr., who leads the country in fast break points.

These are two of the top seven OVER teams in the entire country as Illinois is 21-8 OVER in all games this season while Purdue is 20-9 OVER in all games.  Illinois is 18-2 OVER vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Illinois -1.5

Purdue already clinched at least a share of the Big Ten title with an 80-74 home win as 10-point favorites over Michigan State on Saturday.  They rained down confetti and celebrated the feat at home.  Now they are in a massive letdown spot here on the road at Illinois, especially knowing they have a home game against Wisconsin still on deck to win the title outright if need be.

Illinois doesn't have the same luxury.  The Fighting Illini can pull within one game of Purdue for first place in the Big Ten with a win here tonight.  They want revenge from an 83-78 road loss at Purdue on January 5th in their first meeting this season.  But they didn't have their best player in Terrance Shannon Jr. (22.0 PPG) for that game due to suspension.  He makes all the difference for this team, and he has scored at least 23 points in six of his last seven games overall.  Illinois hasn't lost at home in Big Ten play with Shannon Jr. in the lineup.

The Boilermakers are kind of just going through the motions right now knowing they have a #1 seed pretty much locked up in the NCAA Tournament.  They have gone 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They went to the wire at home with Minnesota and Michigan State, and also lost outright at Ohio State and went to the wire with Michigan on the road.  This is a big step up in class for the Boilermakers compared to what they have been facing here of late.  The spot really favors the Fighting Illini.  Bet Illinois Tuesday.

20* Alabama/Florida ESPN No-Brainer on Florida +1

The Florida Gators want revenge from a 98-93 (OT) loss at Alabama on February 21st just two weeks ago.  They led that game by double-digits in the final 10 minutes but blew the lead and lost in OT.  But now Florida is back home where they are 13-1 SU this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the SEC.

Alabama is coming off a crushing 81-74 home loss to Tennessee in a game that likely decided the SEC regular season championship.  I don't think the Crimson Tide will be able to get back up off the mat after that defeat.  Plus, Alabama hasn't been able to beat good teams on the road this season.  The Crimson Tide lost by 20 at Tennessee, by 18 at Auburn and by 22 at Kentucky.  Bet Florida Tuesday.

20* Stanford/Colorado FS1 No-Brainer on Colorado -12

The Colorado Buffaloes have come up clutch here down the stretch while squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  They have won three consecutive games including blowout home wins over Utah by 24 and California by 10 in their last two games.  They improved to 15-1 SU & 9-6 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the country.

Now the Buffaloes are playing their final home game this season meaning it is Senior Night.  They will be max motivated, and I expect them to win with plenty of room to spare against a Stanford Cardinal team that looks to have quit on head coach Jerod Haase.

Indeed, the Cardinal are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall losing by 20 at Washington, by 13 at Washington State, by 13 at home to Oregon, by 12 at home to Oregon State and by 22 at Utah.  They haven't even been competitive in these games, and now this will be their toughest game during this stretch tonight at Colorado.

Stanford is 1-8 ATS  in its last nine games off a road loss by 10 points or more.  Bet Colorado Sunday.

25* CBB TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Tennessee/Alabama OVER 169

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted offense and 11th in adjusted tempo in the entire country.  They have scored 81 or more points in nine consecutive games, including 95 or more in seven of those nine.  They play even faster and are even more efficient at home where they are averaging 95.8 points per game.

Nate Oats has one of the worst defensive teams he has ever had at Alabama this season as well allowing 88 or more points in five of their last six games.  The OVER is 7-0 in Alabama's last seven games overall with 166 or more combined points in all seven games, including 175 or more in six of those.

Rick Barnes has the best offensive team he has had at Tennessee.  The Vols rank 16th in adjusted offense and 65th in adjusted tempo.  They have scored 86 or more points in six of their last eight games overall.  They put up 91 on Alabama in their first meeting this season.  But Alabama only scored 71 thanks to 4-of-21 (19%) shooting from 3-point range.  They will shoot much better at home, where they make 41.6% from 3 on the season.  Both teams should get 85-plus in this one.

Alabama is 8-0 OVER after scoring 80 points or more in four consecutive games this season.  The Crimson Tide are 11-1 OVER when playing against a good team that wins 60-80% of their games this season.  Tennessee is 15-7 OVER vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Pac-12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on USC/Washington OVER 153.5

Washington is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Huskies rank 27th in adjusted tempo and 34th in adjusted offense this season.  The OVER is 8-3 in Washington's last 11 games overall with 162 or more combined points in nine of those 11 games.

USC has been an OVER team when they've been fully healthy with Collier (16.3 PPG, 4.2 APG) and Ellis (16.5 PPG) on the court at the same time, which is the case right now.  They rank 114th in adjusted tempo and like to push the pace as well.  The OVER is 4-2 in their last six games overall.

USC beat Washington 80-74 for 154 combined points in their first meeting this season on February 4th.  Amazingly, they were missing both Collier and Bronny James in this game and it still got to 154 points despite USC shooting just 4-of-22 (18%) from 3-point range.  

I have to expect they will shoot better in the rematch, and I know Washington will shoot better than the 43.6% they shot in that first meeting.  The Huskies are shooting 51.4% at home this season including 40.2% from 3-point range.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Arkansas/Kentucky CBS No-Brainer on OVER 166

Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Wildcats rank 17th in adjusted tempo and 6th in adjusted offense, plus this is one of John Calipari's worst defensive teams since he took over in Lexington.  Kentucky is 20-8 OVER in all games this season, including 13-3 OVER in its 16 home games where it is scoring 93.2 points per game on 53.3% shooting while also allowing 78.8 points per game at home.

Arkansas also likes to get out and run ranking 49th in adjusted tempo.  The Razorbacks are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall.  They won't mind getting out and running with the Wildcats today.

I think the first meeting between these teams with Kentucky and Arkansas both missing key players is keeping this total lower than it should be.  Kentucky won 63-57 for just 120 combined points.  But the pace was there and the shooting wasn't.  Arkansas shot 20-of-60 (33.3%) while Kentucky shot 23-of-63 (36.5%).  It's safe to say both teams will shoot a lot better in the rematch.

Kentucky is 9-0 OVER off two straight games committing 11 or fewer turnovers this season.  The Wildcats are 16-2 OVER after a combined score of 165 points or more this season.  Kentucky is 7-0 OVER in SEC home games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Villanova/Providence FOX No-Brainer on UNDER 136

Villanova is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Wildcats rank 345th in adjusted tempo and 16th in adjusted defense.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Villanova's last seven games overall with 234 or fewer combined points in all seven games.  This total of 136 is too high for a game involving Villanova right now.

Providence is an elite defensive team as well ranking 20th in the country in adjusted defense.  The Friars are struggling to score right now without Bryce Hopkins (15.5 PPG).  Villanova is also possibly without two key players in TJ Bamba (10.5 PPG) and Jordan Longino (6.6 PPG), who are both questionable.  The Wildcats struggle to score as it is even with these guys in the lineup.

Villanova beat Providence 68-50 for just 118 combined points in their first meeting this season on February 4th.  It will be a similar defensive struggle in the rematch today as familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.

Villanova is 9-1 UNDER vs. poor pressure teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Quinnipiac/Iona OVER 150.5

Quinnipiac is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bobcats rank 18th in the country in adjusted tempo.  They score 78.4 points per game this season.  But they have quit playing defense during their current four-game losing streak which has seen them allow 80-plus points in four consecutive games.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five games with 157 or more combined points in four of the five.

Iona also prefers to play up-tempo ranking 153rd in adjusted tempo while pressing the entire game.  We saw what happened when these two teams got together on January 21st in their first meeting this season and it was an absolute shootout.  Quinnipiac won 91-87 for 178 combined points.  We have 27.5 points to spare here in the rematch in what should be another track meet.

Iona is 10-2 OVER in its last 12 games off an upset loss as a favorite.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Gonzaga/San Francisco ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco +3.5

Both Gonzaga and San Francisco are on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  But Gonzaga looks more in than San Francisco right now, which means the Don need this game more.  The Bulldogs have a huge game on deck against St. Mary's on Saturday, and a win there would likely get them in the Big Dance.  They could be caught looking ahead to that game.

This is the best chance for the Dons to get a signature win, so they will be 'all in' to get it tonight.  Plus, they want revenge from a 77-72 road loss at Gonzaga in their first meeting this season.  The Bulldogs shot 20 more free throws than they did, and that was the difference.  I think they will get the benefit of the whistle at home this time around.

Nobody in the WCC has played Gonzaga and St. Mary's tougher than San Francisco has.  The Dons also lost by just 4 at St. Mary's two games ago.  It's time for them to get rewarded for their efforts tonight.  They are 14-1 SU at home this season.

The Dons are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 points or more.  San Francisco is 7-1 ATS off a blowout win by 20 points or more this season.  Bet San Francisco Thursday.

20* Alabama/Ole Miss ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 166

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted offense and 12th in adjusted tempo in the entire country.  They have scored 81 or more points in eight consecutive games, including 95 or more in six of those eight.  

Nate Oats has one of the worst defensive teams he has ever had at Alabama this season as well allowing 92 or more points in four of their last five games.  The OVER is 6-0 in Alabama's last six games overall with 166 or more combined points in all six games.

Now the Crimson Tide face an Ole Miss team that boasts one of the best trios of guards in the entire country.  The Rebels rank 41st in adjusted offense and 18th in 3-point percentage at 37.7%.  Their guards will get whatever they want against Alabama's defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Seton Hall/Creighton FS1 No-Brainer on Seton Hall +8.5

Seton Hall is making its move to make the NCAA Tournament.  The Pirates have gotten healthy and have gone 5-1 SU in their last six games overall with their lone loss coming on the road at Villanova.  They beat Xavier by 18 at home three games ago, upset St. John's 68-62 on the road two games ago and crushed Butler by 12 at home last time out.

Now the Pirates want revenge from a 97-94 (3 OT) home loss to Creighton.  I love the value we are getting on them catching 8.5 points in the rematch.  They have a huge rest advantage here playing just their 2nd game in 10 days while having the last three days off, while Creighton has only had two days off since their 80-66 road loss at St. John's on Sunday with travel involved as well.  I think the Bluejays remain overvalued after upsetting UConn at home two games ago.

Creighton is 0-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season.  Seton Hall is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games after two straight games with two or fewer assists.  The Pirates are on a mission tonight and I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull the outright upset.  Bet Seton Hall Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Notre Dame +6.5

This is a terrible spot for Wake Forest.  The Demon Deacons are in a massive letdown spot off their 83-79 'upset' home win over a Top 10 Duke Blue Devils team that led to a court storming.  It followed up their blowout home win over Pitt.  The Demon Deacons won't be nearly as motivated to beat lowly Notre Dame tonight.

Wake Forest has been vulnerable on the road this season going 3-9 SU & 4-8 ATS in 12 games played away from home.  Notre Dame is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall and improving as the season goes on under first-year head coach Micah Shrewsberry.  They beat Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech at home, upset Louisville by 22 on the road and only lost by 3 as 7.5-point dogs at Syracuse.

The home team is 5-1 SU in the last six meetings between Notre Dame and Wake Forest.  The Fighting Irish are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after allowing 85 points or more.  This is a dangerous, sleepy spot for the Demon Deacons.  Bet Notre Dame Tuesday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Baylor/TCU OVER 147.5

TCU is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 66th in adjusted tempo and 26th in adjusted offense.  The Horned Frogs are always looking to get out rand run and get easy buckets in transition.  They face a Baylor team that is elite on the offensive end ranking 5th in adjusted offense but one that among the worst in the Big 12 defensively.

TCU is scoring 83.0 points per game at home this season while Baylor is scoring 82.3 points per game overall.  These teams met on January 27th at Baylor with a 105-102 (3 OT) win for TCU being the result.  That game was tied 76-76 at the end of regulation for 152 combined points, so it still went OVER the 148.5-point total in regulation.  And now we are getting an even better number of 147.5 for the rematch.

Baylor is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 games off two consecutive games with five or fewer steals.  The Bears are 8-1 OVER in their last nine road games vs. teams who average 9 or more steals per game.  TCU Is 7-1 OVER vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or better this season.  The Horned Frogs are 8-2 OVER vs. good offensive teams averaging 77 or more points per game this season.  This one has shootout written all over it.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Creighton/St. John's CBS No-Brainer on St. John's +2.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the St. John's Red Storm.  They have gone just 3-8 SU in their last 11 games overall and have failed to cover the spread in four consecutive games.  Head coach Rick Pitino called out his team and it was a bad look, which is giving us the opportunity to 'buy low'.

But the Red Storm responded well to Pitino last game jumping out to a huge lead against Georgetown and coasting home for the victory.  Now the Red Storm want revenge from a 66-65 loss at Creighton as 6-point dogs on January 13th.  Now they are 2.5-point home dogs in the rematch, and the books haven't adjusted enough for flipping home courts as St. John's should be favored.

While the Red Storm need this game like blood and will be max motivated, this is a massive letdown spot for Creighton.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season where everything went right for them in knocking of No. 1 UConn at home.  They are also 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, so we are 'selling high' on the Bluejays here.

St. John's is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after failing to cover the spread in eight or more of its last 10 games.  Rick Pitino is a perfect 9-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in eight or more of his last 10 games as a head coach having never lost in this situation.  Bet St. John's Sunday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Seton Hall -3

Seton Hall is making its move to make the NCAA Tournament.  The Pirates have gotten healthy and have gone 4-1 SU in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming on the road at Villanova.  They beat Xavier by 18 at home two games ago and upset St. John's 68-62 on the road last time out.

The Pirates have had the last five days off to rest and get ready for this game against reeling Butler.  The Bulldogs are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall including a pair of blowout losses in their last two, losing by 22 at home to Creighton and by 10 at Villanova.  The Bulldogs are coming back down to reality as this team just isn't that talented and doesn't play much defense, allowing 71 or more points in seven consecutive games.

Seton Hall beat Butler 78-72 on the road in their first meeting this season to improve to 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with all five wins by 6 points or more.  Butler even shot 39.1% from 3 and 15-of-16 (93.7%) from the FT line in that first meeting and still lost by 6.  It's going to be hard to see them improving on the road in the rematch.

Butler is 1-7 ATS off a conference loss this season.  Shaheen Holloway is 7-0 ATS vs. up-tempo teams that attempt 62 or more shots per game after 15-plus game as a head coach.  Holloway is 9-1 ATS in home games off an upset win as a road underdog as a head coach.  Bet Seton Hall Saturday.

20* Villanova/UConn FOX No-Brainer on Villanova +12.5

The Villanova Wildcats are playing their way back into NCAA Tournament contention by playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming by 3 points at Xavier.  All four wins have come by double-digits by 10 over Butler, by 26 over Seton Hall, by 16 over Georgetown and by 18 over Providence.  The Wildcats haven't lost any of their last seven games by more than 7 points.

Now the Wildcats want revenge from a 66-65 home loss to UConn as 3.5-point dogs.  They are catching 12.5 points on the road in the rematch, which is too much.  Everyone is expecting UConn to bounce back from its 85-66 loss at Creighton, but I'm not buying it.  Villanova needs this game more and will be the more motivated team.

Villanova hasn't lost any of its last 18 meetings with UConn by more than 12 points, making for an 18-0 system backing the Wildcats pertaining to this 12.5-point spread.  Bet Villanova Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on UNLV -1

UNLV is making its push to make the NCAA Tournament playing its best basketball of the season here down the stretch.  The Rebels are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone loss coming after they blew a double-digit lead late to rival Nevada and lost by 3.  Their wins have been mighty impressive including an 80-77 upset win at New Mexico as a 12-point dog.  They bounced back from that loss to Nevada with a 29-point win at Air Force last time out.

Now the Rebels have their sights set on revenge from a 78-75 loss at Colorado State as 7-point dogs.  The Rams are 1-6 SU in Mountain West road games with thier lone win coming at Fresno State.  They lost by 16 at San Diego State, by 13 at Nevada, by 7 at Boise State and by 5 at Utah State.  UNLV is in the same class as those teams and will handle their business at home.

UNLV is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game in the 2nd half of the season.  Bet UNLV Saturday.

25* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Kentucky -1

I love the spot for the Kentucky Wildcats today.  They were humbled with a 75-74 loss at LSU at the buzzer which followed up their 70-59 road win over Auburn handing the Tigers their first home loss of the season.  That was a clear sandwich spot for Kentucky with this game against Alabama on deck.

Now we will get Kentucky's best effort today, and it will be good enough to beat Alabama.  The Crimson Tide are riding high right now winning seven of their last eight.  But they needed OT to beat Florida as 10-point home favorites last time out, and that effort will have taken a lot out of them.

Alabama will be without Mohamed Wague (4.0 PPG) due to suspension and could be without Latrell Whitesell Jr. (9.0 PPG, 44.5% 3-pointers), who missed last game with a concussion.  Conversely, there's a good chance Kentucky gets back Tre Mitchell (12.0 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 3.1 APG) after missing the last two games with a shoulder injury.  They beat Auburn without him, however.

Nate Oats is 4-15 ATS off a home win where they didn't cover as a favorite as the coach of Alabama.  Oats is 1-9 ATS after three straight games where both teams scored 75 points or more as the coach of the Crimson Tide.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Wake Forest -1

I love the spot for Wake Forest Saturday.  They get a chance at quick revenge after giving Duke a run for its money in a 77-69 road loss as 7-point dogs on February 12th.  Now they get to host the Blue Devils in the rematch here two weeks later, and home-court advantage will make all the difference.

Wake Forest is 14-0 SU & 11-3 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 20.1 points per game.  The Demon Deacons are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in ACC home games this season outscoring opponents by 20 points per game.  They have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.

Duke is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 75 points or more in four consecutive games.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Denver/South Dakota State OVER 160

Denver is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Pioneers rank 42nd in adjusted tempo, 95th in adjusted offense and a woeful 354th in adjusted defense.  They score 84.4 points per game and allow 81.2 points per game this season.

South Dakota State has been a dead nuts OVER team under current head coach Ric Henderson.  That's pretty much the case again this season ranking 109th in adjusted tempo, 153rd in adjusted offense and 212th in adjusted defense.  The Jackrabbits are scoring 76.7 points per game overall including 81.4 points per game at home.

Denver beat South Dakota State 99-80 for 179 combined points in their first meeting on January 13th this season.  It should be more of the same in the rematch, and we have 19 points to spare with this 160-point total.  That first total was set at 163, and there's no way the books should have adjusted it down.

Denver is 18-6 OVER in all games this season.  The Pioneers are 8-0 OVER in their last eight games after playing two consecutive games as a favorite.  South Dakota State is 10-1 OVER vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or better this season.  Denver is 7-0 OVER vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Charlotte +5.5

Charlotte is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The 49ers are 17-8 SU & 14-9 ATS this season including 11-2 SU & 8-4-1 ATS in AAC play.  They are in 2nd place in the conference just one game behind South Florida, which is also one of the most underrated teams in the country.

On the opposite end of the spectrum is Memphis, which is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Tigers are 7-6 SU & 2-11 ATS in AAC play this season.  Penny Hardaway is in dangerous territory here looking like he has lost this team.

Memphis followed up a 76-66 loss at North Texas with a 106-79 loss at SMU on Sunday.  The Tigers just quit playing defense against SMU and have now allowed 74 or more points in 10 of their last 11 games overall.  They have upset home losses to Rice as 14.5-point favorites and South Florida as 10-point favorites.  They also only beat Wichita State by 2 as 9.5-point favorites.

Memphis is 0-9 ATS after failing to cover four of its last five games this season.  Charlotte is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games when playing its 3rd game in a week.  The 49ers are 7-1 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  Bet Charlotte Wednesday.

20* Florida/Alabama ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 173.5

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted offense and 11th in adjusted tempo in the entire country.  They have scored 81 or more points in six consecutive games, including 99 or more in four of those six.  Nate Oats has one of the worst defensive teams he has ever had at Alabama this season as well.

Now the Crimson Tide face another dead nuts OVER team in Florida.  The Gators rank 36th in adjusted tempo and 10th in adjusted offense.  The Gators have scored at least 79 points in seven of their last eight games overall.  They are also a shaky defensive team like Alabama.

Alabama averages 91 PPG overall and 96 PPG at home.  Florida averages 85 PPG overall and 82 PPG on the road.  I expect both teams to get to their season averages tonight considering this game will be played at a rapid pace, and if that happens we cash this OVER ticket.

Florida is 6-0 OVER vs. good shooting teams that make 48% of their shots or better this season.  Alabama is 6-0 OVER in its last six games after scoring 80 points or more in four consecutive games.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  These three trends combine for a perfect 16-0 system backing the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on TCU/Texas Tech OVER 147.5

TCU is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Horned Frogs rank 72nd in adjusted tempo and 25th in adjusted offense this season.  Texas Tech ranks 13th in adjusted offense and can light it up on that end of the court.

These teams met on January 30th with TCU winning 85-78 for 163 combined points.  Now we have a total of 147.5 for the rematch, which is just too low.  These teams also combined for 165 points in their final meeting last season.  Texas Tech is scoring 77.2 points per game at home this season while TCU is scoring 79.2 points per game on the road.

TCU is 7-0 OVER in road games off an ATS win this season.  Texas Tech is 8-2 OVER with a total of 140 to 149.5 this season.  The Red Raiders are 13-2 OVER in their last 15 games after playing their last game on the road.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah State -2

I like the spot for Utah State after losing two of its last three games with two of those losses coming on the road to Colorado State and San Diego State.  Now the Aggies want revenge from that loss to the Aztecs on February 3rd.  They shot 26.1% from 3 while the Aztecs shot 45% from 3 and attempted 15 fewer free throws.  They are due for some positive shooting regression and the benefit of the whistle at home in the rematch.

It's a good time to fade San Diego State after going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Aztecs are coming off a huge 81-70 home win over New Mexico to get their revenge on the Lobos from a previous road loss.  The Aztecs are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five road games with their lone win coming at Air Force.  They are also 1-5 ATS in their six MWC road games this season.

Utah State is 11-1 SU & 7-3-1 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 18.4 points per game at home.  San Diego State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Aztecs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games off two or more consecutive wins.  Bet Utah State Tuesday.

20* UConn/Creighton FS1 No-Brainer on UNDER 145.5

UConn and Creighton both play at a snail's pace and both play some of the best defense in the country.  That makes them both dead nuts UNDER teams.  UConn ranks 327th in adjusted tempo and 11th in adjusted defense.  Creighton ranks 221st in adjusted tempo and 24th in adjusted defense.

The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between UConn and Creighton.  They combined for 110 points in a 62-48 win by UConn in their first meeting this season.  In fact, they have combined for 129 or fewer points in each of their last six meetings.  They have combined for 140 or fewer points at the end of regulation in eight consecutive meetings, making for an 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 145.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* CBB Big Monday No-Brainer on William & Mary +17.5

William & Mary is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.  The Tribe lost by 9 as 13.5-point dogs at Hofstra, pulled off the 4-point upset win as 9-point dogs at Northeastern, only lost by 4 as 8.5-point dogs at Monmouth and only lost by 11 as 12.5-point dogs at Delaware.

William & Mary only lost 84-83 as 13-point home dogs to College of Charleston in their first meeting on February 3rd earlier this month.  Now the Tribe are catching 17.5 points in the rematch, which is too much.  That's especially the case considering they have played much better on the road here of late.

Plays on road teams (William & Mary) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against a poor defensive team (74-78 PPG) after 15-plus games, after scoring 55 points or less are 31-9 (77.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Charleston is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall and consistently overvalued.  That's the case again tonight.  Bet William & Mary Monday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on South Florida +5.5

South Florida has been disrespected all season and Florida Atlantic has been getting too much respect after making the Final 4 last season.  That remains the case here Sunday.  I fully expect the Bulls to earn their respect with an outright upset of the Owls, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

South Florida is 18-5 SU & 15-6 ATS this season.  The Bulls have gone 13-2-2 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  They are 12-2 SU at home this season and 11-1 SU in conference play.  Their lone conference loss came on the road by 4 points at UAB.

Florida Atlantic is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games overall and consistently laying too many points to the opposition due to the notoriety of making the Final 4 last year.  But they are getting everyone's best shot with a target on their back, and they will get South Florida's best shot today as well.

South Florida is a perfect 7-0 SU in its last seven home meetings with Florida Atlantic.  Bet South Florida Sunday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona State +18.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Arizona Wildcats off five consecutive victories.  They are coming off a pair of impressive road wins 105-99 (3 OT) at Utah and 99-79 at Colorado.  That win at Colorado was even more impressive because they were coming off that 3 OT game and playing their 2nd game in 3 days in altitude.  I think they take their foot off the gas tonight against Arizona State.

But Arizona hasn't been very impressive in three of its last four home games.  The Wildcats are 1-3 ATS in their last four home games beating Stanford by 11 as 18-point favorites, UCLA by 6 as 18-point favorites and USC by 15 as 20.5-point favorites.  I think Arizona State can stay within 18.5 tonight just as those three teams did.

The Sun Devils are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now.  Their last two games they upset Utah 85-77 as 12-point road dogs and crushed Oregon State 79-61 as 6.5-point home favorites.  Now they are looking at this game against big brother Arizona as their 'national championship' game and will put their best foot forward.

Arizona State pulled the 89-88 outright upset as 12.5-point road dogs last year.  The Sun Devils are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games vs. teams that are called for 3-plus fewer fouls per game than their opponents.  Each of the last eight meetings in this series were decided by 19 points or fewer, including seven by 13 points or fewer.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt +20.5

Tennessee just doesn't take Vanderbilt seriously.  As a result, the Commodores are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with Tennessee.  They lost by 13 as 13.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  They upset the Vols as 10-point home dogs last year.  They only lost by 9 as 16.5-point road dogs and by 9 as 11.5-point road dogs in their last two road meetings.

Vanderbilt treats this game like its 'national championship' game every year.  The Commdores upset Texas A&M 74-73 as 8.5-point home dogs last time out to flash their potential, and they already proved they could play with the Vols int their first meeting this season.  They actually led that game by 5 points at halftime, and the 13-point loss was not indicative of how close it really was.

Vanderbilt is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games off a win by 6 points or less.  Tennessee is 1-9 ATS with a total set of 140 to 149.5 this season.  The Commodores are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 points or more.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on UCF +1

UCF has proven it can hang in the Big 12 in its first season going 8-3 ATS in its 11 Big 12 games.  That includes home wins over Kansas, West Virginia and Oklahoma.  Now they host a Cincinnati team that they can handle here.

Cincinnati is finding the Big 12 to be tough sledding going 3-7 SU in its last 10 games overall.  The Bearcats just lost at home to both Houston and Iowa State and now have to go on the road here against UCF.  This is a brutal stretch that will have taken a lot out of them.

UCF is 10-4 SU & 10-4 ATS at home this season.  The Knights are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games off two consecutive games with 12 or fewer assists.  UCF is 8-1 ATS following a loss this season.  Bet UCF Saturday.

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Georgia +3.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Georgia Bulldogs.  They are 0-5 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall against a brutal schedule.  But now they have had the last week off having played last Saturday to rest and recover.  I expect a big effort from the Bulldogs against their arch rivals in Florida.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Gators.  They have gone 6-1 SU in their last seven games overall.  But they are starting to get overvalued, and they were fortunate to escape with an 82-80 home win over LSU as 11-point favorites on Tuesday.

Georgia will be extra motivated for revenge from a 102-98 (OT) loss at Florida on January 27th.  The Gators shot 54.9% from the field and 17-of-20 (85%) from the FT line and still needed OT to get by the Bulldogs.  Things won't come as easy for the Gators on the road this time around.  Georgia is 11-3 SU at home this season while Florida is 2-4 SU in SEC road games with one win at winless Missouri and the other coming by 3 points.

Florida is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 road games after winning four or five of its last six games.  Bet Georgia Saturday.

20* New Mexico/SDSU MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on New Mexico +6.5

New Mexico has played some of its best basketball on the road this season proving that the Lobos can win away from The Pit.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four MWC road games with three wins by 18 points or more as well as an upset win at Nevada.

Now the Lobos are catching 6.5 points on the road to a San Diego State team that they beat 88-70 at home in their first meeting.  They won by 18 despite shooting just 7-of-24 (29.2%) from 3 and 21-of-31 (67.7%) from the FT line.  There was nothing fluky about that victory at all.  They go from being 3.5-point favorites in that game to 6.5-point road dogs in the rematch, which is a 10-point adjustment.  That's too big of an adjustment for flipping home courts.

New Mexico is 6-0 ATS after allowing 80 points or more this season.  The Lobos are 7-0 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or less this season.  New Mexico is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with San Diego State including a 76-67 upset win as 8-point road dogs last year.  Bet New Mexico Friday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Temple +20

The Florida Atlantic Owls set some unsustainable expectations when they made their run to the Final 4 last season.  They have been overvalued big time in conference play this season.  They have a target on their backs and are getting everyone's best shot on a nightly basis.

The result has been a 3-9 ATS run over their last 12 games overall.  The Owls aren't blowing anyone out.  They have won several close games during this stretch with six of their last 13 games decided by 4 points or fewer.  They had no business covering against Wichita State last game, winning by 13 as 7.5-point favorites in overtime.

Florida Atlantic won't be motivated at all to beat Temple tonight, which is going to make it very difficult for them to cover this inflated 20-point spread.  They have a huge game on deck at South Florida on Sunday against the team that is leading the conference.  They will be looking ahead to that game.

Temple is 1-10 SU in conference play, but all 10 losses came by 18 points or less, and nine by 13 points or fewer.  So they haven't lost by this kind of margin in conference play.  Temple's last six games were all decided by 7 points or fewer or went to OT.  They will be treating this game as their 'national championship' game against FAU.  

Temple has just one loss by more than 18 points all season, making for a 23-1 system backing the Owls pertaining to this 20-point spread.  Florida Atlantic has just one win by more than 15 points in its last 15 games.  Bet Temple Thursday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Seton Hall -2.5

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on Seton Hall.  The Pirates have played a few games without their best player in Kadary Richmond (15.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 4.9 APG) here recently that have contributed to a 2-4 SU stretch of their last six games.  They are coming off their worst loss of the season, an 80-54 road loss at Villanova.

Now the Pirates are back home where they will want revenge from a 74-54 road loss at Xavier in their first meeting this season.  They shot 2-of-15 (13.3%) from 3 while Xavier shot 10-of-20 (50%) which was the difference.  They are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch.  I believe the Pirates are favored for good reason tonight and will bounce back in a big way now that they are fully healthy.

Xavier is 2-5 SU on the road this season with one of those wins coming against DePaul.  Seton Hall is 9-3 SU at home this season with wins over UConn and Marquette.  Their two Big East home losses came by a combined 7 points and they didn't have Richmond in one of them.

The Pirates are 24-10 ATS in their last 34 games off a blowout conference loss by 20 points or more.  Bet Seton Hall Wednesday.

20* Ole Miss/Kentucky ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 162.5

Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 14th in adjusted tempo and 5th in adjusted offense but just 125th in adjusted defense.  They are 18-5 OVER in their 23 games this season, including 12-2 OVER in their 14 home games which are seeing 170.6 combined points per game on average.

Ole Miss is an elite offensive team ranking 30th in adjusted offense but like Kentucky, a terrible defensive team ranking 130th in adjusted defense.  The Rebels are 10th in 3-point percentage hitting 38.7% on the season.  The Wildcats are 1st at 41% on the season.  These are two elite shooting teams, so the OVER is a great bet.

Kentucky is 15-1 OVER after a game with 155 or more combined points this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Penn State/Northwestern Big Ten No-Brainer on Penn State +8.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with three outright upsets on the road at Rutgers by 15 as 7-point dogs, on the road at Indiana by 14 as 7-point dogs and at home over Utah by 10 as 1-point dogs.  They have cover the spread by a combined 54 points in those three games.

The books still aren't giving the Nittany Lions the respect they deserve today as 8.5-point road dogs at Northwestern.  They want revenge from a 76-72 home loss to the Wildcats as 1.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season on January 10th.  That was a rare loss for the Nittany Lions in this series as they are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with the Wildcats with three outright upsets as underdogs.

Northwestern lost sharp shooter Ty Berry to a knee injury in their 80-68 home win over Nebraska last time out.  Berry averages 11.6 points per game and shoots 43.3% from 3 and 89.5% from the FT line. His loss isn't being factored into this line enough.  Berry had 16 points and 5 rebounds while making 4-of-5 from 3-point range in their first meeting with Penn State.

Penn State is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 points or more.  The Nittany Lions are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games as underdogs.  Penn State is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or better.  The Wildcats are due for some 3-point shooting regression, especially without Berry.  They shot 58.3% from 3 in that first meeting and still only won by 4 despite Penn State shooting 3-of-17 (17.6%) from 3.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Colorado +2.5

This is the toughest spot of the season for Arizona.  They are coming off a 105-99 (3 OT) win at Utah in the altitude on Thursday.  Four starters played at least 44 minutes for the Wildcats.  Now they have to turn around and play in the altitude again in Colorado on Saturday.  They won't have anything left in the tank for the Buffaloes.

Colorado made pretty easy work of Arizona State in an 82-70 home win on Thursday.  The Buffaloes should still be pretty fresh for this one.  They have some of the biggest home/road splits in the country over the last decade, which has proven to be the case again this season.

Colorado is 13-0 SU at home this season and outscoring opponents by 19.2 points per game.  Arizona is 2-3 SU in its last five Pac-12 road games despite being favored in all five.  The two wins both came down to the wire, and the three losses came by 18 at Stanford as 12-point favorites, by 3 at Washington State as 9-point favorites and by 3 at Oregon State as 18.5-point favorites.

Colorado is 7-2 SU in its last nine home meetings with Arizona.  That includes a 79-63 win in their most recent home meeting.  Arizona is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game.  The Buffaloes are fully healthy and a dangerous team when that's the case because it hasn't been for much of the season.  Bet Colorado Saturday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Arizona State +13

This is the toughest spot of the season for the Utah Utes.  They are coming off a very deflating 105-99 (3 OT) home loss to Arizona on Thursday.  Now they have to try and get back up off the mat to face the Arizona Sun Devils on Saturday.  They won't have anything left in the tank as their three best players in Madsen (51 minutes), Smith (49) and Carlson (44) have to be running on fumes.

That is going to make it very difficult for the Utes to get margin on the Sun Devils.  Arizona State clearly matches up well with Utah beating them 82-70 as 6-point home dogs in their first meeting this season.  The Sun Devils are now 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Utes.

Utah is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games following a home loss.  Arizona State is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games after two straight games attempting 10 or fewer free throws than their opponents.  The Utes are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game after 15-plus games.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on St. John's +7.5

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on St. John's after losing five of their last seven games overall.  They want revenge from one of those defeats, a 73-72 home loss to Marquette on January 20th.  Now they go from being 1.5-point favorites in that game to 7.5-point road dogs in the rematch, which is too big of an adjustment.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on Marquette off six consecutive victories while also going 5-1 ATS during that stretch.  They have had the last week off, and while that's usually a good thing, it could work against them here because they were on a roll.  It's just like the NFL where you want to back teams who were poor going into their bye and fade teams that were on a roll going into their bye.

St. John's is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games after losing four or five of its last six games coming in.  The Red Storm are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet St. John's Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on NC State/Wake Forest OVER 149

Wake Forest is an elite offensive team.  They score 80.7 points per game overall and 84.9 points per game at home.  They rank 27th in adjusted offense and 109th in adjusted tempo, so they like to play pretty fast as well.

NC State also likes to play pretty fast ranking 120th in adjusted tempo and 100th in adjusted offense.  The Wolfpack are scoring 75.2 points per game this season.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between NC State and Wake Forest with 159, 164, 156 and 177 combined points.  NC State beat Wake Forest 83-76 earlier this season for 159 combined points despite these two teams combining to go just 6-of-26 (23.1%) from 3-point range.  I have to think they will only shoot better in the rematch.

Wake Forest is 8-0 OVER in its last eight games off two consecutive blowout wins by 20 points or more.  NC State is 51-32 OVER in its last 83 road games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida +2.5

I love the spot for the Florida Gators.  They have had the last week off since a tough 67-66 road loss to Texas A&M last Saturday.  They are foaming at the mouth and ready to take their shot at upsetting the Auburn Tigers in Gainesville on Saturday.

Meanwhile, Auburn is in the ultimate letdown spot.  The Tigers are coming off a 99-81 home win over their biggest rivals in the Alabama Crimson Tide.  They got revenge on Alabama after losing on the road to them in their first meeting this season.  That was on Wednesday, so the Tigers have only had two days to get ready for the Gators.

Florida is 9-1 SU at home this season with its lone loss coming to Kentucky by 2.  Auburn is 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS in its last three SEC road games losing at Alabama by 4 and at Mississippi State by 6 with its lone win coming at Ole Miss.

Florida is a perfect 14-0 SU in its last 14 home meetings with Auburn.  Bet Florida Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on TCU +8

I love the spot for TCU Saturday.  They have had the last week off since a 77-66 home loss to Texas.  They want revenge from a 73-72 home loss to Iowa State on January 20th in their first meeting this season.  I expect them to take the Cyclones to the wire at the very least, so we are getting some great value on the Horned Frogs.

Iowa State will be playing its 3rd game in 8 days and is in a letdown spot following a 70-65 upset road win at Texas on Tuesday.  The Cyclones won't be all that motivated to beat TCU again, and they are starting to get a little too much respect after going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.

Three of the last four meetings between Iowa State and TCU were decided by 3 points or less.  TCU is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games off an upset loss as a favorite.  The Horned Frogs are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days.  TCU is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games vs. top teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.  Bet TCU Saturday.

20* Wisconsin/Rutgers Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin -4

I love the spot for the Wisconsin Badgers.  They are riding a season-high 3-game losing streak and will be max motivated for a victory.  They lost in OT at Nebraska, went 3-for-19 from 3 in a 6-point home loss to Purdue, and were upset at Michigan as 8-point favorites last time out.

We will 'buy low' on the Badgers and 'sell high' on Rutgers, which is coming off two consecutive upset road wins at Michigan and at Maryland.  They came back from 15 points down in the 2H to beat Michigan and clipped Maryland by 3.  They had lost their previous three games and none were really competitive, losing by 25 at Illinois, by 8 at home to Purdue and by 15 at home to Penn State.

Home-court advantage has meant very little in this series.  The road team is now 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  This is a very short number for the Badgers to be laying today considering they are by far the superior team.  The rank 11th in offense and 31st in defense while Rutgers ranks 297th in offense.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

20* SDSU/Nevada MWC No-Brainer on Nevada -1.5

Nevada is 11-1 SU at home this season with home of the best home-court advantages in the Mountain West.  Their last two home games have been very impressive with a 77-64 win as 3.5-point favorites over Colorado State and a 90-60 win over San Jose State as 11.5-point favorites.  But neither were as impressive as their 77-63 win as 5.5-point dogs at Utah State last time out, so the Wolf Pack are playing their best basketball of the season right now.

Now they get a chance to boost their NCAA Tournament resume today with a home win over a ranked San Diego State team.  But the Aztecs have been far from dominant over the last month.  They have gone 5-3 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Most concerning has been their performances on the road.

The Aztecs only beat San Jose State 81-78 as 10-point favorites, lost 88-70 at New Mexico as 3.5-point dogs, lost 67-66 as 1-point favorites at Boise State and lost 79-71 as 2.5-point dogs at Colorado State.  They are now 1-4 ATS in their last five MWC road games.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Nevada beat San Diego State 75-66 as a 2.5-point home dog last season.  Bet Nevada Friday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah +6

The Utah Utes are a perfect 12-0 SU at home this season and should not be 6-point home underdogs to the Arizona Wildcats tonight.  This line should be much closer to PK.  The Utes will be more motivated for a win tonight than in any other game all season, and I expect them to pull off the upset to boost their tournament resume.  We'll take the points for some insurance.

Arizona has been very shaky on the road in Pac-12 play this season.  The Wildcats are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four Pac-12 road games with three bad upset losses.  They lost by 18 at Stanford as 12-point favorites, by 3 at Washington State as 9-point favorites and by 3 at Oregon State as 18.5-point favorites.

Utah is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four games.  The Utes are 201-152 ATS in their last 353 home games.  Bet Utah Thursday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Valparaiso +21.5

Valparaiso is one of the most underrated teams in the MVC because of their poor 6-17 SU record.  But the Beacons are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall and continuing to deliver for backers.  They haven't lost any of their last nine games by more than 11 points.

I backed the Beacons in a similar spot against Drake as my 25* MVC Game of the Year.  Drake was coming off a huge win over Indiana State the game prior and was in a letdown spot.  That proved to be the case as Drake only won by 11 as similar 20.5-point favorites.

Now it is Indiana State in the letdown spot.  The Sycamores are coming off a huge 75-67 home win over Drake on Saturday that solidified their spot in 1st place in the MVC.  They beat Bradley in OT two games before and were flat in a 6-point win at Belmont the next game, which was sandwiched in between the Bradley/Drake games.  I fully expect the Sycamores to be flat tonight, which is going to make it very difficult for them to cover this inflated 21.5-point spread.

Valparaiso is 9-1 ATS as a road dog or PK this season, including a perfect 7-0 ATS as a road dog of 10 points or more.  The Beacons are 8-0 ATS in road games vs. teams that are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game this season.  They have done their best work on the road in 2023-24 and will give the Sycamores more of a fight than they bargained for tonight.  Bet Valparaiso Wednesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota +3.5

Minnesota is the best covering team in the entire country going 14-7 SU & 18-3 ATS.  That includes 12-3 SU & 14-1 ATS at home this season.  The Golden Gophers continue to lack the respect they deserve as 3.5-point home dogs to the Michigan State Spartans tonight.

Minnesota wants revenge from a 76-66 loss at Michigan State on January 18th just three weeks ago.  But PG Elijah Hawkins (8.8 PPG, 7.8 APG) missed that game for the Gophers.  He is their floor general and not having him on the road against the Spartans was a massive loss.  Having him back for the rematch will make a massive difference.

Michigan State is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 road games following a win.  The Spartans are 0-7 ATS in thier last seven road games after covering two of their last three against the spread.  The Spartans are 1-3 SU in their last four Big Ten road game with their lone win coming by 2 points at Maryland.  Bet Minnesota Tuesday.

20* Clemson/UNC ESPN No-Brainer on Clemson +8.5

The UNC Tar Heels are in the ultimate letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off a 93-84 win Saturday night against their biggest rivals in the Duke Blue Devils.  They already beat Clemson on the road earlier this season and won't be that motivated to beat them again.

Clemson goes from a 3-point home favorite against UNC in that first meeting to an 8.5-point road dog in the rematch.  That's a massive adjustment.  The Tigers will be highly motivated for a victory after losing two of their last three.  They lost by a single point at Duke and lost by 1 at home to Virginia.

Clemson has some 3-point luck coming their way.  The Tigers shot 1-of-18 (5.6%) from 3 against North Carolina in that first meeting.  They are shooting 30.1% from 3 in ACC play but are a much better shooting team than that making 35.2% on the season.  Opponents are only making 26.8% from 3 against UNC in ACC play, so the Tar Heels are due for some regression in that department.  Opponents are hitting 37.3% from 3 against Clemson in ACC play, so they are due for some positive regression.  The Tigers have been one of the most unlucky teams in the ACC.

Clemson is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after committing five or fewer turnovers last game.  The Tigers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game.  Bet Clemson Tuesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest/Georgia Tech OVER 150

Wake Forest is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Demon Deacons are scoring 80.7 points per game this season.  In fact, 11 of Wake Forest's last 12 games have seen 147 or more combined points.  They rank 25th in adjusted offense.  This total is 150.5 is very low for a game involving Wake Forest.

Georgia Tech ranks 94th in adjusted offense and 182nd in adjusted defense making them more of an OVER team.  The Yellow Jackets are 8-2 OVER in their last 10 games overall with 147 or more combined points in seven of those 10 games.

Wake Forest is 14-4 OVER in its last 18 road games.  The Demon Deacons are 7-0 OVER in their last seven games after scoring 95 points or more.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Purdue/Wisconsin CBS No-Brainer on Wisconsin +2.5

The Wisconsin Badgers should not be home underdogs to the Purdue Boilermakers today.  The Badgers are 11-1 SU & 8-4 ATS at home this season.  This will be Purdue's toughest road test of the entire season today.

Purdue's six Big Ten road games have come against Northwestern, Maryland, Nebraska, Indiana, Iowa and Rutgers.  They lost at Northwestern and lost by 16 at Nebraska as 7.5-point favorites.  Wisconsin took Nebraska to OT last time out and lost in what was a lookahead spot.  They will come back fully focused today.

Purdue is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games following six or more consecutive wins.  The Boilermakers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games as road favorites of 6 points or less or PK.  The Badgers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games vs. top teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.  Wisconsin is 3-2 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings with Purdue with both narrow losses coming by 4 and 2 points.  Bet Wisconsin Sunday.

25* ACC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Syracuse/Wake Forest OVER 150.5

Wake Forest is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Demon Deacons are scoring 79.8 points per game this season.  In fact, 10 of Wake Forest's last 11 games have seen 147 or more combined points.  They rank 38th in adjusted offense.  This total is 150.5 is very low for a game involving Wake Forest.

It is also too low for a game involving Syracuse, which is another dead nuts OVER team.  The Orange rank 41st in adjusted tempo this season.  They just combined for 155 points with Boston College last time out and have allowed 49.2% or higher shooting in three consecutive games.

Wake Forest and Syracuse have combined for at least 151 points in three of their last four meetings.  Syracuse is 12-4 OVER in its last 16 conference road games.  Wake Forest is 32-19 OVER in its last 51 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.