Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-10-16 | Heat v. Bulls -10 | 100-105 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
40* NBA Situational ATS Blowout (Bulls -10) It's all about picking your spots with Chicago, as the Bulls have a tendency to not play up to their potential against bad teams. I don't see that being an issue here against the Heat, as Dwayne Wade wants to make sure to remind Miami what they lost by not resigning him. I expect the rest of the Bulls players to also bring their "A" game for their new teammate, as they want to remind Wade he made the right choice leaving them. At the same time, the Heat are decimated with injuries right now and playing on no rest. This one should get ugly in a hurry. Give me the Bulls -10! |
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12-10-16 | Blazers -1 v. Pacers | 111-118 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie ATS Crusher (Blazers -1) Really tough spot here for the Pacers, who are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set after losing last night in Dallas. Indiana also just finished up a 5-game road trip and it's tough for teams to play well in the first game back home after a long road trip. Portland has had the Paers number of late, including a 22-point win at home back on 11/30. Indiana is also just 15-26 ATS in their last 41 against the Western Conference and 3-13 ATS in their last 16 after scoring 100 or more points in 4 straight games. Give me Portland -1! |
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12-07-16 | Kings -3.5 v. Mavs | 120-89 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
40* NBA Vegas Line Mistake (Kings -3.5) I like the Kings to cover this small spread on the road against the Mavericks. Sacramento isn't as bad as their record would lead on, but clearly have a ways to go. Dallas is awful and I just don't see it getting any better for the Mavericks anytime soon, especially with the injuries they are dealing with. The loss of Bogut is huge for this one, as they are already without Dirk, leaving them no good options to matchup up against Cousins inside. He should absolutely dominate this game and it wouldn't surprise me if this one got ugly in a hurry. Give me the Kings -3.5! |
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12-06-16 | Suns +7 v. Jazz | 105-112 | Push | 0 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Knockout (Suns +7) This is a great spot to back the Suns, who are showing a lot of value here as a decently priced road dog against the Jazz. Phoenix is going to come out motivated here after getting embarrassed in a 109-138 loss at Golden State last time out. They will also have fresh legs, as they have had the last two days off. That's key here, as Utah will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set after playing last night in LA in a hard fought 107-101 win over the Lakers. This is also the Jazz's 3rd game in 4 nights and a big look ahead spot with a huge game against the Warriors on deck. Look for the Suns and their fast-paced attack to give the tired legs of Utah trouble here. Note that Phoenix is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 110+ points in their previous game and 20-8 ATS in their last 28 off a blowout loss by 15 or more points. Take Phoenix! |
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12-06-16 | Spurs v. Wolves +4.5 | 105-91 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
40* NBA Dog of the Day (Wolves +4.5) The books have made the Spurs a short road favorite here trying to entice some action on San Antonio in a bad spot. The Spurs will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set after playing last night in Milwaukee. This is also their 7th game in the last 12 days, which makes this a golden opportunity for Popovich to rest some players against a bad team. While Minnesota has been a major disappointment so far, they have been playing a lot better than their 6-14 record would lead on, as they have suffered a number of close losses. This is a statement game for the Timberwolves at home and with 2 days off before this one, they should be able to take advantage of the tired legs of the Spurs. Give me Minnesota +4.5! |
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12-05-16 | Wizards -5.5 v. Nets | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Wizards -5.5) Washington isn't as bad as their 6-12 record would lead on, while the Nets are every bit as bad as their 5-14 record. Brooklyn caught a lot of teams off-guard early in the season with their hard play and they opened up 7-2 ATS because of it. That hard play isn't paying off anymore, as the Nets are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10. Not only are they not covering, they are struggling to keep games close. During their current 1-9 SU stretch the closest loss has been 7 points and 7 of the 9 defeats have come by double-digits. The Wizards are a desperate team right now, so there's no overlooking Brooklyn here, which should allow them to win here comfortably. Give me Washington -5.5! |
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12-04-16 | Kings +2.5 v. Knicks | 98-106 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
40* NBA Situational ATS Knockout (Kings +2.5) This line is begging you to take the Knicks at home as a small favorite, but my money is on the Kings to get the big road win here. New York has won 7 of 10, but the majority of those wins have come against bad teams or teams that haven't been playing well of late. With a trip to Miami and their warm weather on deck after this one, I look for the Knicks to come out flat here. I also think think this is a bad matchup for New York, as they really don't have an answer inside for Cousins and the defense hasn't been good even during this recent stretch where they have been winning. The Knicks have allowed 100+ in 6 straight and 8 of their last 9 overall. Give me the Kings +2.5! |
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12-03-16 | Heat v. Blazers -6.5 | 92-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Knockout (Blazers -6.5) This is the time to fade the Heat after pulling off back-to-back road wins over the Nuggets and Jazz. While it's not easy winning at those two venues in consecutive nights, the wins are a little misleading, as Denver isn't playing well and Utah was missing several key players to injury. Miami simply can't have any gas left in the tank for this one. Portland likes to play at a fast pace and can light up it up offensively. The Heat simply won't be able to keep up, as they are team that relies on their defense to keep them in games. It's also worth pointing Miami continues to play short-handed, which only makes this spot that much more difficult, as they get ready to play their 3rd road game in 4 nights against a Blazers team that is out to get their season back on track and playing with fresh legs on two days rest. Give me Portland -6.5! |
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12-03-16 | Bulls -3 v. Mavs | 82-107 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
40* NBA Situational ATS Money Maker (Bulls -3) This year's Bulls team has made a point of not suffering let downs against lesser opponents and for the most part they have done just that. Even coming off the huge win at home last night against LeBron and the Cavs, I expect Chicago to show up and take care of business against the Mavs tonight. With Wade not playing, I look for Butler to really take it on himself to deliver a big game in this one. Dallas is 3-15 and have shown little signs of life, as they have dropped 10 of their last 11. Give me Chicago -3! |
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12-02-16 | Pistons v. Hawks -2.5 | 121-85 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Knockout (Hawks -2.5) Love the value here with the Hawks laying less than 3-points at home against the Pistons. Atlanta comes in having lost 7 of 8, but most of those came on the road. The Hawks are 6-2 at home and will be all business in this one. Detroit comes in playing well and off a couple of big road wins at Charlotte and Boston, but this is a bad spot for the Pistons, who will playing their 4th straight on the road and 3rd in the last 4 days. Detroit is still just 3-8 ATS on the road this season and are 2-4 ATS this season when playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Atlanta is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after losing 5 or 6 of their last 7 and 3-1 ATS over the last 3 seasons after 2 straight losses by 6 points or less. Give me the Hawks -2.5! |
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12-01-16 | Magic -1.5 v. Grizzlies | 94-95 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Knockout (Magic -1.5) It doesn't seem right that Orlando is a road favorite against a Memphis team that has a winning record at 11-8, but it's more than justified. The Grizzlies are playing short-handed and in about as bad of a rest situation as you are going to find in today's NBA. Memphis will be playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and their 5th in the last 7 days. They will be doing so without starters Mike Conley, Chandler Parsons and James Ennis. They are also without a huge bench player, who plays big minutes in Zach Randolph. Orlando might not be the most talented team, but are certainly capable of winning this game against a depleted and tired Memphis team. The Magic will be playing with a lot of confidence after taking down the Spurs on the road 95-83 last time out. Give me Orlando -1.5! |
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11-30-16 | Pacers +7.5 v. Blazers | 109-131 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Knockout (Pacers +7.5) Indiana is worth a look here as a decently priced road dog against the Blazers. I believe we are getting value here with Indiana because of Paul George not expected to play. However, the Pacers have been playing well without him of late, including a 118-97 win over Brooklyn and 91-70 win against the Clippers in their last 2 games. This is a deep Indiana rosters that is built to withstand an injury to a key player like George. As for the Blazers, they are not playing great to start the season, as they come in just 9-10. They are only 5-4 at home (2-7 ATS) and their struggles can be pinpointed to their inability to get stops on defense. Portland comes in giving up 113.7 ppg on the season and are even worse at home, where they are allowing 115.3 ppg. When you don't play defense, it's hard to blow teams out. Give me the Pacers +7.5! |
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11-29-16 | Cavs v. Bucks +7.5 | 101-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Knockout (Bucks +7.5) Milwaukee is worth a look here as a decently priced home dog against the Cavaliers. Cleveland has been on a mission to start out the season, going 13-2 in their first 15 games, but they also have been overvalued on a consistent basis, as they are just 6-8 ATS. Milwaukee is still trying to get things figured out, but despite their losing record (7-8), they have been competitive against a lot of the upper-tier teams and I expect an all out effort here at home in their first crack against the defending champs. Easy game for the Cavs to overlook with a huge showdown at home against the Clippers on deck Thursday and 3 big road games against the Bulls, Raptors and Knicks following that. Cleveland also figures to be minus two key players here, as Frye is on personal leave and Shumpert is questionable with a hamstring injury (no reason to rush him back). Give me the Bucks +7.5! |
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11-27-16 | Hawks -4 v. Lakers | 94-109 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
40* NBA Situational Vegas Line Mistake (Hawks -4) I had my eye on this game and was hoping the books would set a low number here on Atlanta after their dreadful performance last time out against the Jazz. This is the perfect bounce back spot for the Hawks and a game they know they can't afford to lose with a road date against the Warriors looming tomorrow. The Lakers on the other hand just played a home-and-home set against Golden State and were completely outclassed in both meetings, losing 106-149 at Golden State and 85-109 at home. The absence of Russell is huge for LA. Not only is he one of their top scorers, but it takes away from their depth, which is a big reason for their strong start to the season. They could also be missing Julius Randle, which would be another big loss. Atlanta is the better and more motivated team in this one. Give me the Hawks -4! |
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11-26-16 | Pistons v. Thunder -3.5 | 88-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Blowout (Thunder -3.5) I think we are getting some great value here on OKC due to a couple of things. Detroit just won at home 108-97 over the Clippers last night as a 6.5-point dog and the Pistons crushed the Thunder 104-88 in an earlier meeting in Detroit. What is getting overlooked is the Pistons don't travel well and are in a horrible spot playing the 2nd of a back-to-back on the road. Detroit is just 1-7 away from home and are giving up 104.9 ppg on the road, which is a staggering difference from what they allow at home, as they are only giving up 96.5 ppg on the season. Thunder have a solid home court edge and should come out with a chip on their shoulder after losing the way they did to the Pistons a few weeks back. Give me Oklahoma City -3.5! |
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11-25-16 | Bulls -7.5 v. 76ers | 105-89 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Blowout (Bulls -7.5) I like Chicago to make easy work of the 76ers on Friday. I look for the Bulls to come out extremely motivated after losing 107-110 at Denver on Tuesday, a game they feel like they should have won after jumping out to a 31-19 lead in the 1st quarter. This is also the last game of their 6-game road trip and a win gives them a winning record on the trip at 4-2. Philadelphia has been a lot more competitive than the last few years, but are still just 4-11. Their best player so far has without a doubt been big man Joel Embid, but he's on a minutes restriction and won't suit up for this one. Chicago should run away with this one, as they come in averaging 105.3 ppg and will be facing a 76ers defense that is giving up 106.9 ppg. Give me the Bulls -7.5! |
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11-23-16 | Hawks v. Pacers +1 | 96-85 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Knockout (Pacers +1) This is a great price to bet the Pacers at home, especially with most of the key players that have been out with injury expected to return. Indiana may be just 7-8 overall, but they are 6-3 at home and will be extremely motivated here off that ugly 83-120 home loss to the Warriors last time out. Atlanta is getting a lot of respect from their strong start, but the Hawks are in a funk right now. They have lost 3 straight, including a 94-112 loss at home to the Pelicans last night. Atlanta is a tired team that will be playing on no rest here and I look for their struggles to continue. Give me the Pacers +1! |
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11-22-16 | Bulls -1.5 v. Nuggets | 107-110 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Knockout (Bulls -1.5) Chicago has been one of the bigger surprises to start the season, as a lot of people thought the Bulls would struggle offensively with the additions of Wade and Rondo with Butler, as none of the three are great 3-point shooters. That hasn't been the case at all, as Chicago ranks in the Top 10 in offensive efficiency. They are also in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency and come into this one clicking on all cylinders. The Bulls are 3-1 to start out their west coast road trip and have won 5 of their last 6 overall. They have also covered the number in all 6 games during this stretch. Denver is just 5-8 overall and 2-4 at home this season. A lot of that has to do with their struggles defensively, as they come in allowing 106.9 ppg overall and 109.0 ppg at home. I'll gladly take my chances with the red-hot Bulls laying a small number. Give me Chicago -1.5! |
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11-21-16 | Rockets v. Pistons +2.5 | 99-96 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Knockout (Pistons +2.5) I'll gladly back the Pistons as a home dog against the Rockets tonight. I believe the Rockets are getting way too much respect here and a lot of that has to do with the fact that they come in having covered 4 straight and 8 of their last 10 overall. At the same time, Detroit is undervalued after losing their last 3 and going just 2-6 in their last 8 overall. The key here is that this bad stretch for the Pistons has come with them playing 6 of their last 8 on the road. Returning home is huge for Detroit, as they are 5-1 at home this season. I expect an all out effort from the Pistons in this one and they should win here rather comfortably. Give me Detroit +2.5! |
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11-18-16 | Warriors v. Celtics +6.5 | Top | 104-88 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Celtics +6.5) I'll take the points with Boston at home against the Warriors Friday night. I don't think it's any secret who is going to want this game more. This is a game the Celtics have had circled on the calendar ever since Durant decided not to come to Boston and took his talents to Golden State. I know they might be shorthanded here with Crowder sidelined and Horford potentially out as well, but this is a deep team that's going to lay every once of energy they have to win this game at home. It's also worth pointing out that it's going to be electric inside the Garden with this being a nationally televised game on ESPN. I also like the fact that Boston is a disciplined and efficient team on both sides of the ball, which is critical if you want to have success against this Warriors team. I also like the fact that Boston played the Warriors tough in both meetings last year, losing by just 5 at home and winning on the road at Golden State. Give me the Celtics +6.5! |
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11-15-16 | Hawks -6 v. Heat | Top | 93-90 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Hawks -6) I got no problem laying this big number on Atlanta away from home against Miami. Even though the Hawks come into this game at 7-2, I don't think people realize how well they are playing. Atlanta is outscoring opponents on average by 10.7 ppg. The only team better is the Clippers at 16.6 ppg. They rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Miami has played well on the defensive side of the ball, but they are 29th in offensive efficiency and figure to be without starting point guard Goran Dragic for this one. Miami also likes to play at a slow pace, but I think it's going to be Atlanta that dictates the tempo and the Hawks rank 4th in pace. The Heat are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and their 3rd in 4 nights overall. Atlanta on the other hand is well-rested, as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 nights. I look for the Hawks to push the pace and pull away for a comfortable win here. Give me Atlanta -6! |
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11-11-16 | Raptors v. Hornets -2.5 | Top | 113-111 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 60 m | Show |
50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Hornets -2.5) I'm backing the Hornets as a small home favorite against the Raptors tonight. Charlotte has really been impressive to start the season. They are 6-1 and come in riding a 4-game winning streak. This wasn't a team that was getting a lot of hype coming into the season, so I still think the books aren't giving them the respect they deserve. Toronto on the other hand is a team that was picked to be right behind Cleveland in the east standings and are coming in off a what's perceived to be a big win at OKC. I'm not as big on the Thunder as others and look for the Raptors to come up short in this one. Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings at home against Toronto and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Give me Charlotte -2.5! |
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11-10-16 | Bulls +2.5 v. Heat | 98-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
40* NBA Situational ATS Blowout (Bulls +2.5) I know the Bulls just lost at Atlanta last night and the Heat have the edge here in rest, but I just like this spot to much with Chicago. This will be Wade's first game back in Miami since jumping ship in the offseason. The Bulls' players understand just how important this game is to Wade and I expect them to lay everything they have on the line in this one to make sure he leaves with a win against his former team. I believe their poor play last night, especially on defense, had a lot to do with them looking ahead to this matchup. Chicago is also the much better team in this one. Miami is just 2-4 and their wins have come against the Magic and at home against the Kings. Give me the Bulls +2.5! |
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11-09-16 | Blazers +9.5 v. Clippers | Top | 80-111 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Blazers +9.5) I like the value here with Portland as a near double-digit road dog against the Clippers. I know the Blazers are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but this is a young team that can handle this spot early in the season. I also think the line here is inflated due to LA coming in off a 32-point blowout win against the Pistons, which followed 24-point win at San Antonio. Not to mention the Clippers are 6-1 ATS on the season, so the books really have no choice here but to make this line a lot higher than it should be. Portland played the Clippers tough at home in back in the opening week of the season and I like the revenge angle here. Give me the Blazers +9.5! |
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11-08-16 | Pelicans v. Kings -5.5 | Top | 94-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Kings -5.5) This might seem like a lot of points for the Kings to be laying, but I think we see a dominant performance at home by Sacramento tonight. The Kings are just 3-5, but they have also played 6 of their first 8 on the road and one of their 2 home games was against the Spurs. This team is hungry for a win and are catching the Pelicans in a bad spot, as New Orleans just played last night in Golden State and are depleted with injuries right now. I just don't see the Pelicans having the energy needed to keep this one competitive. Give me the Kings -5.5! |
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11-08-16 | Wolves -4 v. Nets | 110-119 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
40* NBA No Doubt Bookie Knockout (Timberwolves -4) Minnesota has not got off to the start most expected, as they are just 1-4 in their first 5, but they could just as easily be 4-1, blowing double-digit leads in 3 of those 4 losses. The Nets are playing hard, but are clearly behind the 8-ball in terms of talent. Minnesota isn't going to overlook the Nets in this spot and that should be more than enough for them to get the win here by at least 5 points, as I could see this one getting ugly in a hurry. Give me the Timberwolves -4! |
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11-08-16 | Hawks +9 v. Cavs | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Crusher (Hawks +9) Atlanta is worth a look here as a near double-digit dog against the Cavs. We knew Cleveland was going to be overvalued coming into the season after winning it all last year and that certainly hasn't changed after they have started out 6-0. They are just 2-4 ATS and have failed to cover in 4 straight. This Hawks team is a lot better than people think and are certainly capable of giving the Cavs a run for their money here. Keep in mind Cleveland's only win this season by double-digits is their opener against the Knicks. Give me the Hawks +9! |
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11-05-16 | Kings +1.5 v. Bucks | 91-117 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Crusher (Kings +1.5) I believe the books are begging for you to take the Bucks as a small home favorite. Milwaukee comes in having won 2 straight and 3 of 4 overall, including back-to-back outright wins as an underdog. The Kings on the other hand have lost 3 straight on the road, including an ugly 94-102 defeat at Orlando last time out. I know they are just 2-4, but I like what I have seen from the Kings early on and I expect them to bounce back here in what feels like a must-win game with a road game at Toronto on deck tomorrow. On the other side of this, I don't trust this Bucks team, at least not until Middleton returns from injury. Kings swept the season series a year ago, including a 129-118 win at Milwaukee as a 4.5-point dog. There's a reason this line has dropped from it's opening number of the Bucks -4. Give me Sacramento +1.5! |
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11-04-16 | Warriors v. Lakers +11 | 97-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
40* Warriors/Lakers Late Night ATS Bailout (Lakers +11) This situation is just too good to pass up and if you play against teams like the Warriors in this spot, I'm confident you will profit long-term. Golden State just played the biggest game of their season to date last night at home against the Thunder, as Durant got his first crack at his old team. The Warriors laid everything they had into winning that game for their new teammate. I believe they are going to have a hard time matching the intensity of this young Lakers team in another nationally televised game, especially playing on no rest and this being their 3rd game in 4 nights. This is LA's chance to showcase themselves in a primetime game and I expect them to lay everything they have on the line at home tonight. Give me the Lakers +11! |
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11-03-16 | Nuggets v. Wolves -3 | 102-99 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
40* NBA No Doubt ATS Knockout (Wolves -3) After blowing double-digit leads in their first two games on the road, the Timberwolves returned home and routed the Grizzlies 116-80. I know Memphis was missing some key players, but I really like this Minnesota team and expect them to be a great bet at home at least in the early portion of the schedule until the public catches on. It's no secret the Nuggets are a better team at home than on the road and I think they struggle to keep this one close against a Timberwolves team that is loaded with young talent. I also think we are getting some value here because Minnesota is without starting point guard Ricky Rubio, but I don't see a dropoff with rookie Kris Dunn at the point and he's a better defender, which fits Thibodeau's style. Give me the Timberwolves -3! |
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11-02-16 | Thunder v. Clippers -7 | Top | 85-83 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Clippers -7) I really like this Celtics team and I even though they are 3-0 and have covered all 3 of their games, I don't feel like they are getting the respect they deserve. On the flip side of this, I think OKC was way overrated coming into the season and it hasn't changed after the Thunder's 3-0 start. I'm still not buying this team. They have beat the 76ers, Suns and Lakers and could have easily lost two of those. LA is a well coached team an unlike the other teams OKC has faced, they are going to make a point of making someone other than Westbrook beat. Either way, the Thunder rely way too much on Westbrook and it's not a recipe for long-term success. Give me the Clippers -7! |
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11-02-16 | Bulls v. Celtics -3.5 | 100-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
40* NBA Vegas Line Mistake (Celtics -3.5) Big time revenge spot for Boston, who lost at Chicago last Thursday. They fell behind by 15-points in the first half. They rallied to take the lead late, but just didn't have enough left in the tank to get the win. Boston was on no rest in that game, so it made sense they couldn't finish off the Bulls on the road. Now they get them at home on 2 days of rest. It's also important to note that we are getting a great line here due to the Bulls coming into this one at 3-0 and having covered in all 3 games. Give me the Celtics -3.5! |
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11-01-16 | Grizzlies v. Wolves -3.5 | 80-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
40* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout (Wolves -3.5) This is a big revenge spot for Minnesota, who blew a big lead in a loss at Memphis to open the season. The Timberwolves are a talented young team that have to feel like they should be 2-0 instead of 0-2. The key here is the 0-2 record provides us with some great value, as the Grizzlies are not a great road team. Keep in mind each of their first two games were on the road. Minnesota brings an all out effort here and I just don't see the Grizzlies keeping pace. Give me the Timberwolves -3.5! |
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11-01-16 | Magic -4.5 v. 76ers | Top | 103-101 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Magic -4.5) I know both teams have yet to win a game this season, but I think the value here is with the Magic. Until the 76ers get Ben Simmons back from injury they are going to struggle to be competitive and even then they are still not a great team. Embid is the only thing they got right now and he's on a minutes restriction, limiting him to just 20 mins a night. Orlando has some nice young talent and I fully expect them to win here by at least 5 points. Orlando has won each of their last 3 trips to Philly and are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 after playing two straight games as an underdog. Give me the Magic -4.5! |
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10-31-16 | Suns +10.5 v. Clippers | Top | 98-116 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Suns +10.5) I think we are getting some great value here with the Suns catching double-digits here. Phoenix is still be undervalued from last year's 23-win campaign, but injuries played a big part of their struggles last year. I see this Suns team as one of most improved teams in the league, as they have a lot of young talent. They are 0-3 SU, but have covered each of their last 2, losing by just 3 in OT at OKC and by just 6-points at home to the Warriors as a 11.5-point dog. While Phoenix is way undervalued, the Clippers are way overvalued here after starting out 2-0 both SU and ATS. The Suns are going to be the more motivated team in this one and win or lose I expect them to keep this one within double-digits. Give me the Suns +10.5! |
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10-29-16 | Magic +11.5 v. Cavs | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
40* NBA Dog of the Day (Magic +11.5) Orlando is showing great value here as a double-digit dog against the Cavs on Saturday. I just don't see Cleveland taking this game all that seriously. They just played in a dog fight last night in Toronto, which they escaped with a 94-91 win. The previous game was at home against the Knicks in an emotional affair, as they got their rings and watched the banner fall for winning the championship last season. Orlando comes in off a 12-point loss at home to Miami in their opener and 26-point defeat last night in Detroit. I look for an all out effort here against the defending champs as they try to secure that first win of the season. I just don't see the Cavs matching the intensity, which is going to make it hard for them to win here by more than the number. Give me Orlando +11.5! |
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10-28-16 | Lakers v. Jazz -8.5 | Top | 89-96 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Jazz -8.5) This might seem like a big number for the Jazz to be laying, but I really think Utah is going to be one of the most improved teams in the league. I know they are still without Hayward and might not have Favors, but I don't think it hurts them against this young Lakers team that will struggle on the road. Not to mention LA is coming off a huge home win against the Rockets, which made them look a lot better than they were. Houston plays zero defense and now they face a Utah team that prides itself on that side of the ball. Lakers biggest issue is their defense. With this being the Jazz's home opener and then coming off a loss, I believe it adds up to a blowout win. Give me Utah -8.5! |
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10-28-16 | Pacers -6 v. Nets | 94-103 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
40* NBA Situational ATS Knockout (Pacers -6) Each year there's a team that cathes fire early in the year and the books are slow to adjust. I believe that is going to be Indiana. The Pacers are one of the most improved teams in the league and are right there with the Raptors as the second best team in the east. Brooklyn on the other hand is one of the worst teams in the league. They covered on Wednesday at Boston, losing by just 5 as a 11.5-point dog. However, that's a misleading final, as they were down 23 in the 4th quarter. I have the Pacers ranked ahead of Boston, so if they are a 11.5-point home favorite over the Nets, no way should Indiana only be laying 6 at Brooklyn. Keep in mind the Nets don't exactly have a great home court edge. Give me the Pacers -6! |
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10-27-16 | Spurs v. Kings +8.5 | 102-94 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
40* NBA Underdog of the Week (Kings +8.5) I really like the value here with the Kings catching a big number at home against the Spurs. San Antonio just embarrassed the Warriors on their home floor on Tuesday and the betting public isn't going to hesitate backing them here at Sacramento. I really like this Kings team and they didn't disappoint in their opener last night, going into Phoenix and routing the Suns. This is also a significant game for Sacramento, as they debut their new $557 million stadium. Give me the Kings +8.5! |
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10-26-16 | Heat +4 v. Magic | Top | 108-96 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Heat +4) I believe the perception of this Heat team is they aren't going to be very good after losing Wade in free agency and not bringing any big names in free agency. I think they are going to surprise some people. Wade's departure opens a bigger role for Justise Winslow, who showed flashes in his limited role as a rookie. They have one of the best young centers in the game in Hassan Whiteside and one of the more underrated point guards in Goran Dragic. I also like their two young guards in Josh Richardson and Tyler Johnson. As for the Magic, they are getting some love after adding in Serge Ibaka, Bismack Biyombo and Jeff Green, but I'm just not sold on this team. They don't have a ton of outside shooting, so teams are going to be able to clog up the paint and really make them work to score. Miami's definitely not a team you want to try and attack inside often with Whiteside. I think the Heat win here outright, but I'll take the points as some added insurance. Give me Miami +4! |
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06-05-16 | Cavs +6.5 v. Warriors | 77-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Knockout (Cavs +6.5) I was on Cleveland in Game 1 and they failed to cover, but I'm not jumping off the Cavaliers bandwagon just because of one loss. Cleveland got a bit of a wakeup call in Game 1, as they no longer are playing against the weak Eastern Conference. If the Cavs can continue to hold Curry and Thompson in check, I like their chances of making this a series. It was the Warriors role players who stole the spotlight in Game 1 and this time I look for Cleveland's role players to be the difference. James knows that this is a must-win game for the Cavs and while I'm taking the points, I like Cleveland's chances of winning this game outright. Give me the Cavaliers +6.5)! |
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06-02-16 | Cavs +6 v. Warriors | 89-104 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Knockout (Cavs +6) I look for the Warriors to come out a bit flat here in Game 1 against the Cavaliers. Golden State just laid everything they had on the line to come back from a 3-1 deficit against the Thunder. Cleveland on the other hand had another easy series against the Raptors and have been waiting for this moment since the postseason started. I know the Warriors made easy work of the Cavs in the regular season, but Cleveland is playing at a whole different level right now and the addition of Frye has really changed the dynamic of this team. I expect this to be a very close game and wouldn't be shocked if Cleveland pulled off the upset. Give me the Cavaliers +6! |
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05-28-16 | Warriors +2.5 v. Thunder | 108-101 | Win | 100 | 23 h 11 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Knockout (Warriors +2.5) Most think the Warriors aren't going to be able to go into Oklahoma City and get a win. Hard to blame them after what happened in Game 3 and Game 4, but I think Golden State is going to remind everyone why they won 73 games. Getting Bogut going in Game 5 was huge for the Warriors. He looked a lot more fresh moving around than he did earlier in the series. If he plays close to how he did in Game 5, Golden State will be tough to beat. All the pressure is on Oklahoma City in this one and the Warriors seem to thrive with their backs against the wall. Steph Curry won't let his season end on Saturday. Give me Golden State +2.5! |
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05-26-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -7.5 | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Knockout (Warriors -7.5) I don't know if the Warriors are capable from coming back from the 3-1 deficit they are up against, but I am confident that there will be a Game 6. Golden State was too good during the regular season to go out like this and I look for them to play one of their best games here at home in Game 5. As much as OKC would love to close out the series, I think this will be a difficult game for them to get up for. They have the commanding 3-1 lead and played their hearts out in games 3 & 4 at home. I think this could be very similar to what we saw last night with the Raptors not showing up for Game 5 in Cleveland. Give me the Warriors -7.5! |
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05-25-16 | Raptors v. Cavs -10.5 | 78-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Knockout (Cavs -10.5) No one expected this series to be headed back to Cleveland for Game 5 tied at 2-2, especially after how easily the Cavs dismantled the Raptors in games 1 and 2. Toronto certainly played much better at home, but I also think Cleveland didn't give them their full attention. I look for the Cavaliers to return to the form of the first two games of this series and make easy work of the Raptors tonight. Cleveland seemed to figure out Toronto in the 2nd half of Game 4 and I'll take my chances that DeRozan and Lowry don't carry over their hot shooting on the road. Give me Cavaliers -10.5! |
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05-23-16 | Cavs -6 v. Raptors | 99-105 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
40* NBA No Doubt Bookie Blowout (Cavaliers -6) I'm confident that Game 3 was a fluke and the Cavaliers will return back to the form that saw them win Game 1 by 31 and Game 2 by 19. Toronto just isn't on the same level as Cleveland and are completely outmatched when the Cavs decide to show up to play. Something they didn't do in Game 3, while Toronto laid everything they had on the line to avoid falling behind 0-3. I look for Cleveland to respond in a big way after their first playoff loss and win here by double-digits. Give me the Cavaliers -6! |
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05-19-16 | Raptors +12.5 v. Cavs | 89-108 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
40* NBA No Doubt Bookie Blowout (Raptors +12.5) The Raptors are worth a look here in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Toronto was embarrassed in Game 1 by 31 points. While that may have came as a surprise to some, it shouldn't have. Toronto simply had nothing left in the tank after playing a Game 7 just two days prior. They quickly realized they had no chance against the well rested Cavaliers and turned their focus two Game 2 before Game 1 was in the books. I look for a much more spirited effort here from the Raptors. The key here is we don't need Toronto to win, just keep it with 12-points, something they are more than capable of doing. Give me the Raptors +12.5! |
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05-18-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -8.5 | 91-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Knockout (Warriors -8.5) Golden State jumped out to a 14-point lead in Game 1, only to fall apart in the 2nd half in a shocking 102-108 loss. While the media has overreacted to the win, the oddsmakers haven't. After losing Game 1 as a 7.5-point favorite, the Warriors are now laying 8.5 in Game 2. Golden State is primed for a huge bounce back performance in a must-win scenario at home tonight. The Warriors simply got too comfortable with their early lead and didn't execute their offense. They won't make that mistake tonight and are going to keep their foot on the gas the entire way through. Give me Golden State -8.5! |
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05-17-16 | Raptors v. Cavs -10.5 | 84-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
40* NBA No Doubt ATS Knockout (Cavs -10.5) This is going to seem like a big number to lay on the Cavaliers in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, but the situation sets up for a Cleveland blowout. The Cavaliers have looked like a completely different team in the postseason. They made easy work of both the Pistons and Hawks in back-to-back sweeps. As for the Raptors, I have not been impressed with what I have seen so far in the playoffs. Sure DeRozan and Lowry are playing better, but the two are going to have to play exceptional just to keep this close, especially on the road. You also can't ignore the edge that Cleveland has here with the extra rest. The Cavs will have had 8 days off since their last game, while the Raptors just played a all or nothing Game 7 on Sunday. Give me Cleveland -10.5! |
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05-16-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -7.5 | 108-102 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Knockout (Warriors -7.5) I believe we have fallen into a perfect situation to back the Warriors at home in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. Golden State had a difficult time putting away the Blazers, even with Curry back in the lineup, but Portland was a tougher matchup than people realized, as they had the ability to go small and matchup with the Warriors. Oklahoma City on the other hand is getting all kinds of praise for taking out San Antonio, but I wasn't all that surprised to see that unfold. The Thunder lost all 3 against the Warriors in the regular season and I wouldn't be shocked if Golden State turned this into a blowout. Give me the Warriors -7.5! |
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05-15-16 | Heat v. Raptors -4.5 | 89-116 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Knockout (Raptors -4.5) Toronto is worth a look here in Game 7. These two teams have alternated wins and covers over the last 4 in the series and I expect that trend to continue with the Raptors cashing in with a victory by at least 5 at home this afternoon. Toronto is a much better team at home and the Heat have had their fair share of problems on the road. With DeRozan and Lowry both finally playing well, the Raptors have the advantage in this one. Give me Toronto -4.5! |
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05-13-16 | Raptors v. Heat -4 | 91-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
40* NBA Vegas Sharp Shooter (Heat -4) This is a great price to back the Heat facing elimination at home in Game 6. Closing out a series is hard enough, it becomes that much harder when asked to do it on the road. Miami has been a covering machine on their home floor, cashing winning tickets in 10 of their last 12. I just feel the pressure will be too much for the Raptors to overcome and based off what we have seen in the playoffs so far, there's a good chance DeRozan and Lowry both struggle after solid performances in Game 5. Give me the Heat -4! |
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05-11-16 | Heat v. Raptors -4.5 | 91-99 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie No Brainer (Raptors -4.5) Toronto is worth a look here at home in Game 5. The Raptors two starts didn't play well at all in Game 4. Lowry and DeRozan combined for just 19 points. On the flip side, Miami got a great game from Wade, who had a game-high 30 points. You would expect Miami to have won by double-digits, but instead they needed to rally late before winning in OT. I look for Lowry and DeRozan to play much better at home and easily win here by at least 5 points. Give me Toronto -4.5! |
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05-10-16 | Thunder v. Spurs -7 | 95-91 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Knockout (Spurs -7) Oklahoma City has made this a series, but I look for San Antonio to take back control in Game 5 at home. The Spurs are simply too good on their home floor and have been a excellent team to back anytime they find themselves tied in a playoff series. San Antonio has covered the spread 30 of the last 42 times this situation has come up and have covered in this spot by an average of 7 points. The Spurs are simply a much better team at home and I look for them to have a breakout game offensively after 3 straight sub-par performances by their standards. Give me San Antonio -7! |
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05-09-16 | Raptors v. Heat -5 | 87-94 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Knockout (Heat -5) Miami has to feel like they should be leading this series, but instead they find themselves down 1-2. The Heat are going to come out in desperation mode and I look for them to have no problem winning and covering this spread at home. Toronto's loss of Valanciunas is huge, as they now have no real threat in the paint and that's going to allow Miami to put that much more focus on stopping DeRozan and Lowry. The Raptors got the split they wanted and I just don't see them matching the intensity of the Heat, who simply can't afford to lose this matchup. Give me Miami -5! |
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05-08-16 | Cavs v. Hawks +6 | 100-99 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Knockout (Hawks +6) This series may be all but over in terms of who is going to advance, but I'm not expecting the Hawks to just lay down at home in Game 4. Atlanta is going to come out and lay it all on the line to avoid getting swept by Cleveland in the playoffs for a second straight season. Atlanta looked like they were going to pull out the win in Game 3, leading by 8 with just over 9 minutes to play in the 4th. The Cavaliers are primed for a letdown here and I'm willing to bet their red-hot shooting from long-distance won't continue in this one. Hawks are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 and Cleveland is 0-8 ATS this season after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7. Take Atlanta +6! |
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05-07-16 | Warriors v. Blazers +4 | 108-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
40* NBA No Doubt Bookie Blowout (Blazers +4) With Curry not expected to be back in the lineup like originally thought for Game 3, my money is on the Trail Blazers to cover at home with their season on the line. Portland knows that with Curry close to coming back and already down 0-2 in the series, they absolutely have to have this game. Portland is a much better team at home and showed they are capable of competing with Warriors, as they had a double-digit lead going into the 4th quarter of Game 2. Blazers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 following a SU loss by more than 10 points. Give me Portland +4! |
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05-05-16 | Heat v. Raptors -4.5 | 92-96 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
40* NBA Vegas Sharp Shooter (Raptors -4.5) I really like this spot for Toronto and the cover. The Raptors are all but in a do or die situation in Game 2, as they simply can't afford to fall behind 0-2 in the series with the series shifting to Miami for Games 3 and 4. Toronto has shown great resilience in the postseason so far, as they have not lost back-to-back games. The Raptors lost Game 1 at home against the Pacers and came back the next game with a win and cover. I expect the same thing to happen here, as Toronto's season is on the line. Give me Toronto -4.5! |
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05-03-16 | Heat v. Raptors -4.5 | 102-96 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
40* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout (Raptors -4.5) Toronto is worth a look here as a relatively small home favorite against the Heat in Game 1. The Raptors won 3 of their 4 home games against the Pacers, but are catching a great number due to having lost 4 straight against the spread. Miami is in the much more difficult spot having to travel on just 1-day of rest after playing a do or die Game 7 at home and the Heat have had their struggles on the road. Prior to winning Game 6 in Charlotte, Miami lost both Game 3 and Game 4 on the road to the Hornets. The Raptors also won both meetings at home in convincing fashion. They won 101-81 on 1/22 and 112-104 on 3/12. It's also worth noting that the home team has gone a perfect 3-0 SU & ATS in Game 1 of the conference semifinals this season. Toronto is also a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 games. Give me the Raptors -4.5! |
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05-02-16 | Thunder +8 v. Spurs | 98-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
40* NBA No Doubt ATS Crusher (Thunder +8) Oklahoma City couldn't have played any worse than they did in Saturday's 92-124 loss in Game 1 and as a result we have seen the public jump all over the Spurs in Game 2 with a slightly bigger spread (Game 1 closed at 6.5). The Thunder are a team that can get beat badly when Durant and Westbrook aren't on their game, but are also capable of winning on the road against a team like San Antonio when they play well. I'm confident the duo will play better and keep this game respectable. OKC is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss of more than 10 points and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Give me the Thunder +8! |
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05-01-16 | Blazers +9.5 v. Warriors | 106-118 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Annihilator (Blazers +9.5) I really like the value we are getting with Portland in Game 1 against the Warriors. Golden State was able to get past the Rockets without MVP Steph Curry for the majority of the series, but Houston was a team that didn't even look like they wanted to be in the playoffs. Without Curry I think this series is a lot closer than what the spread for Game 1 is indicating. Portland isn't going to be intimated by the Warriors at all and I wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. Give me the Blazers +9.5! |
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04-30-16 | Thunder v. Spurs -6.5 | 92-124 | Win | 100 | 26 h 56 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Annihilator (Spurs -6.5) My money is on the Spurs to take care of business in Game 1 at home and cover the spread against the Thunder. There was a clear cap between the Thunder and the top two in the west in the Spurs and Warriors. Teams like OKC, who rely so much on 1-on-1 basketball to score offensively have little to know chance of beating the Spurs, especially on the road. San Antonio made easy work of the Grizzlies and have had 5 days to put together a game plan for the Thunder. If either Durant or Westbrook struggles at all in this game, this could get ugly in a hurry. Give me the Spurs -6.5! |
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04-29-16 | Raptors +2 v. Pacers | 83-101 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Crusher (Raptors +2) The Raptors outscored the Pacers 25-9 in the 4th quarter to steal Game 5 102-99 at home and I believe that win is going to give Toronto the confidence needed to close out the series tonight in Indiana. Keep in mind the Raptors won Game 3 on the road 101-85. While Toronto gained some serious momentum with how they rallied in Game 5 at home, the loss will be extremely difficult for Indiana to bounce back from. The Pacers continue to rely almost exclusively on Paul George and I think he's going to try and do too much in this spot. Give me the Raptors +2! |
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04-27-16 | Hornets v. Heat -6 | 90-88 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Destroyer (Heat -6) This is a great spot to back the Heat at home in Game 5. Miami won both meetings at home by double-digits before losing the last two on the road. The Heat simply didn't look like the same team in Charlotte as they did at home, but don't let that fool you into thinking they have lost their edge in the series. I fully expect Miami to come out an play well at home. The Heat shot 58% in both games 1 and 2 at home and then shot 34% and 40% in game 3 and 4. The shots will fall for Miami at home and I look for another double-digit win tonight. Give me the Heat -6! |
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04-26-16 | Pacers v. Raptors -6.5 | Top | 99-102 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Raptors -6.5) The series shifts back to Toronto for Game 5 and I give a big edge to the Raptors on their home floor. Indiana caught Toronto off guard in a 100-90 win in Game 1, but the Raptors answered with a 98-87 win in Game 2. I look for Toronto to bounce back in a big way after an ugly 83-100 loss in Game 4 at Indiana. The Raptors shot a miserable 36.5% from the field, while the Pacers shot a sizzling 47.1%. It was the first time Indiana made more than 43% of their attempts in a game in this series and I look for their shooting woes to return on the road. Pacers defense has been solid, but Indiana is just 7-22 ATS in their last 29 road games after 5 straight games holding their opponent to 42% or worse from the floor. Give me the Raptors -6.5! |
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04-25-16 | Clippers -3.5 v. Blazers | Top | 84-98 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Clippers -3.5) I wasn't all that surprised to see the Trail Blazers steal Game 3 at home with the Clippers poised for a bit of a letdown after taking a 2-0 series lead. Portland was fortunate to win that game, as the Clippers shot just 41% from the field, including a miserable 3 of 18 from long distance. I look for a much more motivated LA team to take the floor in Game 4, as they want to take a 3-1 lead and close out the series at home in Game 5. Let's also not forget they won the first 2 games in this series by at least 20 points, so winning on the road by just 4 should be no problem. Give me the Clippers -3.5! |
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04-24-16 | Warriors -9 v. Rockets | Top | 121-94 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Warriors -9) Golden State will be welcoming back Curry after he sat out the previous two games and I look for the Warriors to make easy work of the Rockets in a critical Game 4 in Houston. After losing Game 3 Golden State is going to come out extremely motivated to not allow the Rockets to tie it up at 2-2. The Warriors want to end this series as quickly as possible and let's not forget they won by 26 points in the only game Curry has played in the series so far. Houston also doesn't look all that interested and there's clearly some major chemistry problems on this roster. I look for Golden State to jump out to an early lead and the Rockets to throw in the towel. Give me the Warriors -9! |
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04-23-16 | Clippers v. Blazers +1 | 88-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
40* NBA Situational ATS Knockout (Blazers +1) The Clippers made easy work of the Blazers in their 2 games at home, but with the series shifting to Portland I look for the Blazers to answer the call an avoid falling behind 0-3. Portland has a huge home court advantage and with their season on the line, look for an energetic home crowd. LA on the other hand is poised for a letdown here, as they are simply looking to split the two teams in Portland and take a 3-1 lead back home for Game 5. Clippers are just 8-17 ATS in their last 245 after scoring 100+ in 3 straight games and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games when playing a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Portland is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 off a SU loss by more than 10 points. Give me the Blazers +1 |
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04-23-16 | Raptors v. Pacers +2 | 83-100 | Win | 100 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
40* NBA No Doubt Bookie Blowout (Pacers +2) Indiana is worth a look here as a home dog against the Raptors in Game 4 on Saturday. I was on Toronto in Game 3, as they were going to be out to get back home court. This time it will be the Pacers who are the more motivated team and will come out on top with a victory to even up the series at 2-2. Raptors are just 11-25 ATS in their last 36 after an upset win of 15 or more points as a dog, while Indiana is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 after trailing by 15 or more points at the half in their previous game. Give me the Pacers +2! |
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04-21-16 | Raptors -1 v. Pacers | 101-85 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster ATS Annihilator (Raptors -1) I really like the spot and value we are getting with Toronto here in Game 3 against the Pacers. The Raptors bounced back from an ugly 10-point loss at home in Game 1 with an easy 98-87 win in Game 2. Toronto is sitting here tied 1-1 in the series and have got little to nothing out of their star blackout of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry. Those two aren't going to continue to struggle and the Pacers have to rely too much on Paul George to carry the load offensively. Raptors have won 11 of the last 13 meetings overall, including 5 of their last 6 trips to Indiana. Give me Toronto -1! |
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04-20-16 | Hornets +5.5 v. Heat | 103-115 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
40* NBA Situational ATS Knockout (Hornets +5.5) Charlotte got embarrassed by 32 points in Game 1 and the betting public is going to want nothing to do with the Hornets in Game 2. Like we saw with the Mavericks in their series against the Thunder, you can't overreact to one game. I look for a completely different Charlotte team to take the floor tonight and wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they won this game outright. Hornets are 20-7 in their last 27 revenging a blowout loss of 20 or more points. Give me Charlotte +5.5! |
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04-19-16 | Celtics v. Hawks -6.5 | 72-89 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
40* NBA Situational ATS Knockout (Hawks -6.5) Atlanta nearly let a 19-point lead slip away in Game 1, as they wound up winning by a final of just 102-101. I'm not letting how that game ended change my thought process on this series. I liked the Hawks coming in and even more now that Boston is likely without Avery Bradley for the rest of the series. His loss is going to be felt on the defensive side of the ball. I'm confident we are going to see a much better shooting effort here from the Hawks, who went just 5 of 27 (18.5%) from long distance. Atlanta also is a team that has playoff experience to fall back on and understand how important it is to hold serve at home. Give me the Hawks -6.5! |
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04-18-16 | Pacers v. Raptors -7 | 87-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
40* NBA No-Doubt Bookie Knockout (Raptors -7) Toronto lost 90-100 at home in Game 1 and I simply don't see the Raptors dropping both games at home against the Pacers. Indiana's primary goal was to split these 2 games on the road and with that already accomplished they are poised for a letdown in Game 2. Toronto on the other hand is going to come out like this is Game 7 of the NBA Finals, as they simply can't afford to lose this game. Raptors had won each of the previous 2 in the series by at least 7 points prior to the loss on Saturday and I look for them to have no problem covering the number here. Give me Toronto -7! |
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04-16-16 | Celtics v. Hawks -5.5 | Top | 101-102 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Hawks -5.5) I really like the value here with Atlanta laying less than 6 points at home against the Celtics. After a slow start to the season the Hawks started resembling the team that won 60 games a year ago down the stretch. They made it to the Eastern Conference Finals last year and I look for that experience to pay off big in this series. I also think Atlanta and Boston play a similar style of game. Both have balanced offensive attacks and are efficient on the defensive side of the ball. Essentially the Hawks are a better version of the Celtics. Give me Atlanta -5.5! |
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04-13-16 | Pacers v. Bucks -5 | 97-92 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
40* NBA No-Doubt Bookie Blowout (Bucks -5) Indiana has locked up the No. 7 seed in the east and have absolutely nothing to play for in the finale on the road against the Bucks. I look for the Pacers to rest several starters or at least drastically limit their minutes, which is exactly what the oddsmakers are expecting with this line. Milwaukee is just 3-9 over their last 12, but I look for them to play hard in their home finale here. Another key factor here is we have the Pacers playing on no rest after last night's game against the Knicks. I just don't see the focus being there and as long as Milwaukee shows up to play this one should get ugly in a hurry. Indiana is just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 on 0 days of rest and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 off a SU win by more than 10 points. Give me the Bucks -5! |
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04-11-16 | Kings v. Suns -6 | 105-101 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Crusher (Suns -6) Great spot to back the Suns and fade the Kings. Phoenix has continued to play hard down the stretch, despite not having a whole lot to play for. The Suns have won each of their last two, both on the road and are an impressive 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games, including 3 straight covers. The Kings managed to beat the Thunder 114-112 in their home finale on Saturday and that was the final home game before moving to their new arena next year. That game meant everything to the Kings and I'm confident they don't show up here on the road against the Suns. Give me Phoenix -6! |
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04-09-16 | Suns -1.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 121-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Suns -1.5) The fact that Phoenix is favored here really says a lot about how the books see this one playing out. The Suns come in off a 124-115 road win over the Rockets as a 12-point dog, but are just 1-7 in their last 8 overall. Rarely will you see a bad team like this favored on the road. That says a lot about the state of the Pelicans, who are decimated by injuries right now. New Orleans has played hard down the stretch despite the injuries, but Phoenix isn't the type of team to get motivated for. It's a very similar spot to their road game at the 76ers, which they lost outright by 14 in just the 3rd time this season Philadelphia was favored on the spread. Give me the Suns -1.5! |
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04-06-16 | Pistons +2 v. Magic | Top | 108-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Pistons +2) I really like the value we are getting here with the Pistons as a dog against the Magic. Orlando has been playing well of late. They have won 4 of 5, including a 12-point home win over the Grizzlies last time out. That has this line way off rom what it should be. The Magic can't be trusted at this point in the season with nothing to play for. Detroit on the other hand has a chance to cement a playoff spot. The Pistons are currently 8th in the east and 2-games up on the Bulls with just 3 to play after tonight. Detroit is also a 1/2-game back of 7th place Indiana, which is someone they want to catch, as it keeps them from having to play the Cavaliers in the first round of the playoffs. Give me the Pistons! |
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04-05-16 | Pistons v. Heat -4 | Top | 89-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Heat -4) Dwayne Wade is questionable for this game, which is why this line took a while to come out. Regardless if he plays or not, I really like Miami at this price at home. The Heat are going to be motivated for several reasons here. They are coming off an ugly 17-point loss at Portland, are playing with double-revenge against the Pistons and are still in the running for the No. 3 seed in the east (1/2-game back of both Boston and Atlanta). Miami is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 off a loss by more than 10 points, 15-5 ATS in their last 20 against the east and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games. Detroit is 4-13 ATS in last 17 road games after playing their previous on the road and 1-5 ATS last 6 off a cover. Give me Miami -4! |
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04-03-16 | Thunder v. Rockets +3 | 110-118 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
40* NBA Situational ATS Knockout (Rockets +3) Oklahoma City has the No. 3 spot in the west locked up and I just don't see them coming out all that motivated here against the Rockets. Houston on the other hand is coming off a devastating loss at home to the Bulls and now trail both the Mavericks and Jazz by 1-game. Great value here with Houston catching points, as I have them winning this game outright. Give me the Rockets +3! |
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04-01-16 | Heat -8 v. Kings | Top | 112-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
50* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month (Heat -8) I made the mistake of backing the Heat on the road against the Lakers as a big favorite, as they wound up losing the game outright. I'm not letting that loss keep me from backing Miami in a great spot here on the road against the Kings. Sacramento will be without their best player in Cousins and have really struggled when he's not on the floor. At the same time, I look for Miami to come out pissed off after letting a game they know they should have won get away from them. The Heat won't take this game lightly and should cruise to a double-digit win over the Kings. Give me Miami -8! |
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03-30-16 | Heat -10 v. Lakers | Top | 100-102 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Heat -10) I'm not buying the Lakers coming out inspired after a 48-point loss at Utah last time out. This team has quit on the season and there's zero chemistry right now in the locker room with D'Angelo Russell's latest antics with Nick Young. Even if LA plays with more effort than they did against the Jazz, I don't think it will be enough to keep this game competitive. Miami is safely in the playoffs, but has a lot to play for. The Heat are just 1-game back of Atlanta for 3rd in the east and with the Hawks playing at 2nd place Toronto, Miami knows this is a golden spot to close the gap. The Heat are also just a 1/2 game up on both Boston and Charlotte. They simply can't afford to lose this game. They have won 7 straight in the series including an easy 13-point win at home back in November. Give me Miami -10! |
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03-30-16 | Warriors v. Jazz +5 | 103-96 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
40* NBA Situational ATS Knockout (Jazz +5) This line really says it all. Oddsmakers aren't setting this number this low without good reason, which has me thinking the Warriors are resting some of their key players in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set. Either way, I look for Utah to put up a serious fight at home and wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. The Jazz are playing some of their best basketball, as they have won 8 of their last 10. Keep in mind they almost beat Golden State at home earlier this season, losing by just 3-points in a game they arguably should have won. Utah was a 7-point dog at home against the Cavs back on 3/14 and won that game outright 94-85. This line is simply too far off from what it should be. Give me Utah +5! |
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03-29-16 | Hornets -11.5 v. 76ers | Top | 100-85 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
50* NBA Sharp Money Top Play (Hornets -11.5) I have no problem laying this big number on the road with the Hornets against the 76ers. Charlotte is a team on a mission to not only secure a playoff spot, but potentially climb up the standings. The Hornets are just 2-games back of Atlanta for the No. 3 spot, but also just 3.5 ahead of 8th place Detroit. I don't see this team letting their foot off the gas until they have officially clinched a spot in the postseason. Beating the 76ers by double-digits doesn't figure to be a problem. Philadelphia is in a free-fall to close out the year and will struggle to come out with any intensity after closing out a 4-game road trip with a max effort at Golden State on Sunday. These two teams have played twice this season and the Hornets have won by 25 and 20. I expect a similar outcome in this one. Give me the Hornets -11.5! |
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03-28-16 | Knicks -5.5 v. Pelicans | 91-99 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
40* NBA No-Doubt ATS Blowout (Knicks -5.5) The public may have a hard time laying this many points on the road with a bad team like the Knicks, but I like the value New York is showing in this matchup. The Pelicans are decimated with injuries right now and homecourt isn't going to be enough to save them. New Orleans has really struggled offensively of late, scoring 99, 84 and 91 points in their last 3 games. They are also giving up 108.4 ppg over their last 5 on the defensive side of the ball. The Knicks have held 4 of their last 7 opponents under 100 points and are still playing hard despite nothing to play for. Give me New York -5.5! |
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03-28-16 | Hawks v. Bulls +3 | Top | 102-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Bulls +3) This is going to seem like an obvious spot to back the Hawks as a small 3-point favorite against the slumping Bulls, but I really like Chicago in this spot. Atlanta is due for a let down and are going to have trouble taking the Bulls seriously given their poor play of late and back-to-back double-digit wins in the series. Chicago is going to lay everything on the line in this game, as they try to fight their way back into the playoffs. Bulls have played the better teams well at home and I expect that trend to continue tonight. Give me Chicago +3! |
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03-27-16 | Wizards -7 v. Lakers | 101-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
40* NBA No-Doubt Bookie Blowout (Wizards -7) Washington is showing decent value here even as a relatively large road favorite against the Lakers. The Wizards season is on the line in this one, as a loss here would all but end their hopes of making the playoffs. The Lakers are the perfect opponent to get back on track against, as LA is a complete mess right now. Kobe Bryant isn't helping matters by playing hurt and the Lakers aren't expected to have the services of D'Angelo Russell. After an embarrassing home loss to the Timberwolves last time out, I look for Washington to keep their foot on the gas in this one. Give me the Wizards -7! |
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03-26-16 | Pacers -4.5 v. Nets | 110-120 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
40* NBA Situational ATS KNOCKOUT (Pacers -4.5) I'm well aware of the fact that Paul George is listed as questionable and may not play. If anything that's giving us some extra value here with the Pacers. Indiana is fighting for their playoff lives and with or without George are going to come out highly motivated for a win. The same can't be said for Brooklyn, who is in a major letdown spot after pulling off a massive upset at home over the Cavaliers last time out. The Nets have won consecutive games once since Dec. 12. Brooklyn is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 off a SU win, while the Pacers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. Give me Indiana -4.5! |
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03-25-16 | Grizzlies +13 v. Spurs | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
40* NBA Situational ATS Knockout (Grizzlies +13) The Grizzlies have been hit hard with injures of late, but have continued to play well. Memphis laid an egg in their last game against the Lakers, losing 100-107, but as a result are showing great value here against the Spurs in a game where they are going to be missing a lot of key pieces. Kawhi Leonard is out with a quad injury and Boris Diaw, Patty Mills and Danny Green are all taking this game off for rest. Note that the Grizzlies have won each of the last 3 meetings against the Spurs when Leonard has been sidelined. I don't expect an outright win for Memphis, but I'm confident they keep this within the number. Give me the Grizzlies +13! |
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03-25-16 | Hornets v. Pistons -2 | 105-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
40* NBA Vegas Line Mistake (Pistons -2) Detroit is worth a look here as a small home favorite against the Bobcats. The Pistons come into this game playing extremely well, as they have won 4 straight. All of those victories came at home, where they are 23-12 on the season. Charlotte has been playing really well of late, but a lot of that success has come at home. The Hornets are just 14-19 on the road. You also have to factor in how much more this game means to the Pistons, as they are fighting just to make the playoffs. Detroit is also going to be out for major revenge, as they have lost each of the first two meetings in the series by 15+ points. Give me the Pistons -2! |
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03-23-16 | Mavs v. Blazers -6 | 103-109 | Push | 0 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
40* NBA Situational ATS KNOCKOUT on (Blazers -6) Here we have a case of two teams that just played each other. The Mavericks won 132-120 in overtime at Dallas on Sunday and that's keeping this line lower than it should be. Dallas is a team that's trending the wrong direction even with that win. They are just 2-7 in their last 9 and just lost Parsons to a season-ending injury. Portland is a very good team at home, having gone 21-12 at home on the season. The Blazers will simply be the more motivated team in this one and should be able to put away Dallas and cover this spread rather easily. Give me Portland -6! |
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03-22-16 | Hornets v. Nets +6.5 | Top | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Nets +6.5) This is a great spot to fade the Hornets after last night's huge win at home over San Antonio. Charlotte managed to rally from a 23-point deficit (trailed 7-30) to pull out a 91-88 win. It's safe to say that the Hornets invested a lot into that victory and that leaves them vulnerable on the road playing without no rest. You also have to factor in this being Charlotte's fifth game in the last seven days. Brooklyn is not only capable of keeping this game within the number, but winning this game outright. The Nets have really been playing well offensively of late, as they have shot 50% or better in 3 of their last 4. They should be able to take advantage of the tired legs and unfocused Hornets in this one. Give me Brooklyn +6.5! |
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03-21-16 | Grizzlies -2 v. Suns | Top | 103-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Grizzlies -2) Despite being hit hard with injuries, Memphis continues to play well and are coming off a an impressive 113-102 home win over the Clippers as a 9-point dog. Normally I would consider this a letdown spot against a bottom feeder like the Suns on the road, but the Grizzlies will be out for double-revenge after losing twice to the Suns in just 9 days from late February to early March. Phoenix comes in off a 95-90 win over the Lakers and will be playing on 2 days of rest, but they have struggled in this spot. The Suns are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 off a win by 6 points or less and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 playing with 2 days of rest. Memphis is 29-13 ATS in their last 42 road games off an upset win as a home dog. Give me the Grizzlies -2! |
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03-21-16 | Kings v. Bulls -7.5 | 102-109 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
40* NBA Situational ATS Knockout (Bulls -7.5) This is every bit a fade of the Kings as it is a play on the Bulls. Chicago is starting to play up to their potential and are catching Sacramento in a horrible spot. The Kings have nothing to play for at this point in the season, which is going to make it extremely difficult for them to match the intensity of the Bulls in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set. This is also Sacramento's 3rd road game in the last 4 days and 5th game overall in the last 7 days. Bulls beat the Kings 107-102 in Sacramento earlier this season and the Kings are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 when revenging a home loss this season. Chicago is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team with a losing record. Give me the Bulls -7.5! |
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03-19-16 | Thunder -3.5 v. Pacers | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
40* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer (Thunder -3.5) I believe we are getting some great value here with Oklahoma City due to the fact that this line is a little lower than it should be due to the Thunder playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set. The key here is that this is a huge revenge game for OKC, as the Pacers went into their house and won 101-98. A game the Thunder let get away late. Indiana is just 9-18 ATS in their last 27 against the Western Conference and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games. Give me the Thunder -3.5! |
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03-18-16 | Blazers -1 v. Pelicans | 117-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Crusher (Blazers -1) The Blazers are showing big time value here at basically a pick'em against the Pelicans. New Orleans comes in off a blowout win against the Kings, but that's nothing to get excited about. Prior to that the Pelicans had lost 8 of their previous 9. Portland is without a doubt the better team and we can count on a max effort here after dropping their last two. Blazers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 after allowing 110 or more points and 21-12 ATS in their last 33 off a SU loss. Pelicans on the other hand are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 off an upset win as a road underdog. Give me Portland -1! |
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03-16-16 | Clippers v. Rockets -3 | 122-106 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie BLOWOUT (Rockets -3) This is a great price to back the Rockets at home against the Clippers. Los Angeles is slumping and find themselves in an awful spot. The Clippers just invested a lot of energy in back-to-back games against the Cavaliers and Spurs. Both ended in losses by 20+ points, including last night's 87-108 defeat at San Antonio. Now LA has to turn around and play on no rest against a Houston team that likes to play at a fast pace. The Rockets also have had the Clippers number of late, winning 5 of the last 6 meetings. The only loss coming in LA. Houston is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and the Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against at team with a winning record. Give me the Rockets -3! |
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03-15-16 | Clippers +9 v. Spurs | 87-108 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
40* NBA Situational ATS Knockout (Clippers +9) Los Angeles comes into this game off an ugly 24-point home loss to the Cavaliers. That combined with the fact that the Spurs are 32-0 at home this season, has the Clippers showing some big time value here in a huge bounce back spot. LA has proved to be a difficult matchup for San Antonio. The Clippers have shot 47% or better in each of the last 6 meetings with the Spurs. Winning 4 of those outright. LA is an impressive 20-11 on the road this season, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 off a SU loss and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 off a double-digit loss at home. Spurs are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Give me the Clippers +9! |
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03-14-16 | Cavs v. Jazz +4.5 | Top | 85-94 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
50* NBA Sharp Money Top Play (Jazz +4.5) The Cavaliers are coming off an impressive 114-90 road win over the Clippers, giving them 6 wins in their last 7 games. However, I think this will prove to be a tough spot for Cleveland, playing on the road in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set is no easy task, especially when that second game is in Utah. The Jazz are finding their form again, as they have won two straight. Utah needs this win more and have the defense to keep the Cavaliers in check. Utah only lost by 4 on the road at Cleveland earlier this season and have won 5 of the last 6 meetings at home against the Cavaliers. Underdogs revenging a loss where they allowed 110 or more points are 30-8 ATS over the last 5 seasons off 2 straight covers as a favorite. Give me the Jazz +4.5! |
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03-13-16 | Jazz -2.5 v. Kings | 108-99 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
40* NBA Situational ATS KNOCKOUT (Jazz -2.5) Utah comes into this game off an impressive 114-93 blowout win at home against the Wizards, which was a much-needed victory after losing 7 of their last 8. The Jazz can't afford to let their foot off the gas if they want to make the playoffs and Sacramento is a team they simply can't afford to lose to, especially with the current form of the Kings. Sacramento has lost 4 straight and 8 of 9 overall and there's clearly some major chemistry issues with the players and head coach. Add in the fact that Utah is playing with double-revenge and the Jazz should have no problem covering this spread. Give me Utah -2.5! |