Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-24-21 | Grizzlies -4.5 v. Thunder | Top | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Grizzlies/Thunder MAX UNIT Top Play (Grizzlies -4.5) I love the value here with Memphis as a small road favorite against the Thunder. The Grizzlies come into this game with some momentum having beat the Warriors 111-103 and the Celtics 132-126 in their last 2 games. They shouldn't have any problem staying locked in here against a Thunder team they just lost two a couple weeks ago in OKC. It was a game that had to sting a little. Memphis won each of the first 3 quarters and had a 10-point lead going into the 4th quarter, only to get outscored 36-22 to lose by 6. Grizzlies are 8-2 ATS last 10 games as a favorite. OKC who just finished up a 4-game road trip is a mere 3-7 ATS last 10 at home after a road trip of 7 or more days. Give me Memphis -4.5! |
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03-23-21 | Nets v. Blazers -1.5 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH (Blazers -1.5) I will gladly back the Blazers at basically a pick'em at home against a Brooklyn team that will be without at least 2 of their 3 starters. Durant is still out with a hamstring injury, Irving is out for at least 3 games to deal with a personal matter and Harden is questionable with a neck injury. This shouldn't be much of a problem for Portland and while it might be tough for the Blazers to take the Nets seriously if all 3 are out, I'm confident they find a way to win. Portland should be motivated here regardless of who plays, as they were just embarrassed by the Mavs 132-92 in their last game. Blazers are still a very strong 7-3 SU in their last 10 games. Portland has also covered 5 of their last 7 off a double-digit loss at home. Give me the Blazers -1.5! |
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03-22-21 | Hawks +6.5 v. Clippers | 110-119 | Loss | -104 | 24 h 23 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT (Hawks +6.5) I will take my chances with Atlanta as a 6.5-point dog against the Clippers. The Hawks are 8-0 SUS and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games. They have found something here under interim head coach Nate McMillan. They just knocked off the Lakers as a road dog on Saturday and I see them being extremely motivated to pull another upset here against the Clippers. As for the other LA team, I just don't think the Clippers have really locked it in. In their last 14 games they are 6-8 SU and 6-8 ATS. They just don't seem all that interested. Hawks are 7-3 ATS last 10 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 4-1 ATS last 5 as a dog. LA is 0-6 ATS last 6 off a win. Give me the Hawks +6.5! |
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03-18-21 | Pelicans +1 v. Blazers | Top | 93-101 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Western Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Pelicans +1) I will gladly take my chances here with New Orleans at basically a pick'em against the Blazers. This is a rematch from Tuesday, a game that saw the Pelicans lose 124-125, despite leading 115-98 with 6:53 left on the clock in the 4th quarter. It was an epic meltdown and outstanding comeback by Portland. I just think the quick turnaround and how that game played out, will have the Pelicans as the much more motivated team in the rematch. You don't erase a deficit like that in that amount of time very often. It will be really hard for Portland to have some kind of letdown off that win. On the flip side, New Orleans has to be sitting their pissed off and sick to their stomach about what happened. I think Pelicans will stick to what got them that big lead and maintain that chip on their shoulder this time around. Give me New Orleans +1! |
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03-18-21 | Thunder +7 v. Hawks | 93-116 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money DOG OF THE DAY (Thunder +7) The Hawks have won 6 straight and covered 5 of those games. No question that this team is playing better under interim head coach Nate McMillan, but I think it has them a bit overvalued in this particular spot. After this game the Hawks will be getting on a plane to head out west for a lengthy 8-game road trip. One that will start with games at the Staples Center against the Lakers on Saturday and Clippers on Monday. I just think it's going to be hard for Atlanta to get up for this game against an OKC team that really isn't all that exciting. While the Thunder don't offer much in terms of star players, they do play really hard and have won 3 of their last 5 games all as dogs. If Atlanta doesn't show up with the right mindset, OKC could definitely win outright. Give me the Thunder +7! |
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03-17-21 | Clippers v. Mavs +2.5 | Top | 89-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
50* CLIPPERS/MAVS NBA on ESPN *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Mavs +2.5) We cashed a 50* Top Play on the Clippers in Monday's 109-99 win at Dallas. I was really big on LA in that game, as they were out for revenge from an ugly 50-point loss to the Mavs earlier in this season. Now that the Clippers got that revenge, I'm going to jump sides and go big on Dallas here as a home dog in the rematch. The Mavs didn't really play great in that first meeting and yet still only lost by 10 points. They only managed 21 points in the 4th quarter and were held scoreless for the final 3 minutes and 15 seconds. Doncic had a triple-double with 25, 10 and 16, but he was just 9 of 23 shooting from the field, missing a lot of big shots late. LA's had trouble bringing a consistent effort and I just think the Mavs are in a prime position to win this game. Give me Dallas +2.5! |
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03-17-21 | Heat v. Grizzlies +1 | 85-89 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
40* NBA PUBLIC MONEY ATS MASSACRE (Grizzlies +1) I just feel like this is a great spot and price to back Memphis at home against Miami. You knew the Heat were going to get things figured out and go on a run like they have, but as a result they are now overvalued in a really bad scheduling spot. Miami is not only playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back on the road after hosting Cleveland last night, this will be their 5th game in 7 days since returning from the break. I wouldn't be surprised if the Heat didn't sit a couple guys in this one. I think it's an even tougher spot given it being a 1-game road trip, as they will fly right back to Miami with their next 4 at home. Give me the Grizzlies +1! |
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03-17-21 | Nets v. Pacers +4 | 124-115 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
40* NBA SHARP MONEY ATS STEAMROLLER (Pacers +4) I will take a shot here with the Pacers as a 4-point home dog to the Nets. The books are definitely making a stand with Indiana in this one, as they know the betting public is going to be all over Brooklyn as a small favorite. I know Indiana let us down in their last game at Denver, losing by 15 as a 4-point dog, despite going into the 4th quarter with the lead. Pacers managed just 15 points in that final period. I still think there's a lot to like with this Indiana team going forward now that they got Caris LeVert in the fold. No question this game means a little more for LeVert, as the Nets are the ones that shipped him out of town in that big trade earlier this season. I also think Brooklyn is kind of just going thru the motions right now. They didn't cover in either of their last two at home against the Pistons and Knicks. Indiana will definitely be the more motivated side in this one. Give me the Pacers +4! |
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03-16-21 | Wolves +9 v. Lakers | Top | 121-137 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
50* WOLVES/LAKERS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Wolves +9) I really like the value here with Minnesota as a 9-point dog against the Lakers. The Timberwolves have looked like a different team out of the All-Star break and a big reason for that is the improved play of rookie Anthony Edwards. Not only his strong play, but the effort level across the board for the team has been a lot better. Minnesota returned from the break with a shocking 135-105 win at New Orleans as a 8-point dog, They then lost 121-125 at home to the Blazers as a 5-point dog and beat Portland 114-112 as a 5-point dog in the rematch. Lakers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a convincing 128-97 win at Golden State last night. I just think LA is a bit overvalued here. Not only are they in a big flat spot on no rest, but they are playing shorthanded right now. Give me the Timberwolves +9! |
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03-16-21 | Knicks +7 v. 76ers | 96-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
40* KNICKS/76ERS NBA ATS NO-BRAINER (Knicks +7) I like the value here with New York as a 7-point dog against the 76ers. We cashed in on the Knicks as a 8.5-point dog last night at Brooklyn. I know playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here is concerning, but it's not like this is a great spot for the 76ers. Philadelphia will be playing their 4th game in 6 days as they just played 3 in 4 before getting yesterday off. This is also the first of a back-to-back that has them hosting the Bucks in a huge showdown tomorrow. Plus, they are still without one of their top players in Embiid. I know Philly has been rolling here of late, but this just feels like a real flat spot. Give me the Knicks +7! |
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03-16-21 | Jazz v. Celtics +4.5 | 117-109 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
40* JAZZ/CELTICS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Celtics +4.5) I'll take a shot here with Boston as a 4.5-point home dog against the Jazz. The Celtics are finally starting to play up to their potential, as they come in having won 5 of 6 with the only loss coming on the road against the Nets. While Boston is surging and likely a little undervalued right now, Utah is slumping and still way overvalued from their crazy run. Utah has lost 3 of 4 and failed to cover in each of those games. The only win coming against a Rockets team that has a bunch of 2nd and 3rd stringers playing big minutes. I just think the price here is too good to pass up. Give me the Celtics +4.5! |
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03-15-21 | Pacers +5 v. Nuggets | 106-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
40* PACERS/NUGGETS NBA ATS NO-BRAINER (Pacers +5) I think the Pacers +5 is worth a shot as Indiana will visit Denver on Monday. Indiana really went into the All-Star break in bad shape. The Pacers had lost 12 of 17 games, including a 10-point loss at home to the Nuggets in the last game before the break. In the first two games back the Pacers have looked pretty good. They did lose 100-105 at the Lakers on Friday, but really should have won that game. What I liked is they didn't let the loss linger as they went out the very next night and upset the Suns 122-111 as a 7-point dog. Also, the Pacers finally got Caris LeVert on the floor, who was their big get in the Oladipo trade. LeVert debuted Saturday against the Suns, scoring 13 points with 7 rebounds and 2 assist in 27 minutes. His return not only provides a boost in terms of their rotation, but it also really gives them a jolt mentally. With Denver off a home loss to the Mavs and Jamal Murray in a bit of a funk right now (5 for 27 shooting last 2 games), I like the Pacers not only covering but winning this game outright. Give me Indiana +5! |
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03-15-21 | Clippers -1.5 v. Mavs | Top | 109-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
50* CLIPPERS/MAVS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Clippers -1.5) There's just some losses to teams that it doesn't matter how long it's been since that loss occurred, it's one that you don't forget. I believe the Clippers 73-124 loss at home to the Mavs back on Dec. 27th is one of those games. Dallas not only won the game by 51, they lost by 50 at the half. Not only does LA have that for motivation here, but they also just got embarrassed yesterday at New Orleans by 20 in a 135-115 loss. Playing on back-to-back games is never easy, but the Clippers have covered 6 straight in the second of a back-to-back. They are also 17-5 ATS last 22 off a loss by 10 or more and 5-1 ATS last 6 trips to Dallas! Give me the Clippers -1.5! |
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03-15-21 | Knicks +8.5 v. Nets | 112-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
40* NETS/KNICKS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Knicks +8.5) I think we are getting a great price with the Knicks as a 8.5-point dog against the Nets. Brooklyn has been rolling, winning 12 of their last 13, but are still without Durant and there's just not a lot more for this team to prove. They have shown that when they are locked in, they are going to be extremely difficult to beat. I'm not saying they are going to start losing a bunch of games, but I think we could see them struggle to get up for some of the lessor teams. They did just barely hold on for a 100-95 win at home against the Pistons in their last game and really shot the 3-ball poorly in that game. You know the Knicks are going to get up for this game and New York has been playing really well over the last month. They are 9-4 in their last 13. I like them to at least keep this close. Give me the Knicks +8.5! |
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03-14-21 | Cavs +6.5 v. Hawks | 82-100 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
40* CAVS/HAWKS NBA SITUATIONAL NO-BRAINER (Cavs +6.5) I will take a shot here with Cleveland as a 6.5-point dog against the Hawks. Definitely getting some value here with the Cavs, who just got blasted 82-116 at New Orleans on Friday. Books got no choice but to inflate the number here on Atlanta, who has won 4 straight and are a team the public likes to get behind when they are playing well. I just think we are going to see a much better effort here from Cleveland. They did get back Kevin Love and Larry Nance Jr. for that game. They also didn't have one of their top playmakers in Darius Garland, who is expected to play in this game. Atlanta is also just not a team that can be trusted and with this being the 2nd game of a back-to-back and 3rd in 4 nights, it has flat spot written all over it. Give me the Cavs +6.5! |
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03-14-21 | Spurs v. 76ers -3.5 | 99-134 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
40* SPURS/76ERS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (76ers -3.5) I'll take my chances here with the 76ers as a small home favorite against the Spurs on Sunday. Philadelphia won their first game back from the All-Star break 127-105 at Chicago and did so without Embiid or Simmons. Embiid came back for their next game, a 127-101 blowout win at Washington, but were still without Simmons. Now Embiid is back out with a knee injury, but Simmons will return. Thing is, this is a deep 76ers team and when they are hitting shots like they have been here of late (shot 50% or better in 4 straight), this is tough team to beat. Also, the Spurs are playing here without two of their top players, as DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge are both out. San Antonio did destroy the Magic 104-77 in their last game, but Orlando is in about as bad as shape as any team right now. Give me the 76ers -3.5! |
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03-13-21 | Knicks -5 v. Thunder | 119-97 | Win | 100 | 4 h 28 m | Show | |
40* KNICKS/THUNDER NBA ATS MASSACRE (Knicks -5) I got no problem laying the 5-points with the Knicks on the road against the Thunder. New York should be highly motivated here after they got embarrassed 134-101 at Milwaukee in their first game back from the All-Star break. That just can't sit well with this team, who had won 8 of 11 going into the break. Oklahoma City returned from the All-Star break with a 116-108 win at home over the Mavs, but that's a very misleading score. Dallas was not only playing on no rest, they sat their two best players in Doncic and Porzingis. I think that win really covered up how bad a shape the Thunder are in right now. OKC is down starting point guard Shai Golgeous-Alexander, power forward Darius Bazley and key reserve Hamidou Diallo. Not to mention they are still without veterans George Hill and Trevor Ariza. Unlike the Mavs, who play no defense, New York defends extremely hard and I think that defensive effort by the Knicks will be the difference in this one. Give me New York -5! |
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03-12-21 | Pacers v. Lakers -4.5 | 100-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
40* PACERS/LAKERS NBA ATS KNOCKOUT (Lakers -4.5) I just can't help myself with the Lakers as a mere 4.5-point home favorite against the Pacers on Friday. Neither of these teams were playing great going into the break. LA had lost 6 of 8, while the Pacers were just 1-5 in their last 6. I just trust the Lakers a lot more to get this thing figured out and playing at home definitely helps matters. LeBron just doesn't take losing lightly and he should be rested and ready to take over for LA until AD is back. Lakers were also much better in their last few games before the break once Dennis Schroder returned from a 4 game absence (LA lost all 4). Indiana just isn't playing well on either side of the ball, especially on the defensive end. In their final 5 games before the break they gave up 116.4 ppg n 53.5% shooting. Give me the Lakers -4.5! |
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03-04-21 | Heat v. Pelicans -2.5 | Top | 103-93 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
50* HEAT/PELICANS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Pelicans -2.5) We successfully played against the Pelicans last night, easily cashing the Bulls +5 in Chicago's 128-124 win (wasn't as close as the final score). It was just the perfect letdown spot for New Orleans coming off that huge win at home over the Jazz and having this prime time TNT matchup on deck with Miami looming tonight. I just think we are going to see a much more focused and determined Pelicans team in this one. The one thing you do have to concern yourself with in the last game before the all-star break is motivation, but I don't see that being a problem. Zion was so upset about how he played last night that he went back out on the floor for more shots after the game. The Heat have been playing much better here of late, but did just have their 6-game win streak snapped last time out in a 80-94 loss to the Hawks. They just couldn't get anything going offensively and that could be a problem here as well if Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo aren't able to play. Both are questionable with knee injuries and you have to wonder if it's worth it for the Heat to play them here instead of resting them with the long layoff looming. Even if they do play, I still like the Pelicans to win and cover. Give me New Orleans -2.5! |
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03-04-21 | Clippers -5 v. Wizards | 117-119 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
40* CLIPPERS/WIZARDS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Clippers -5) Regardless if Kawhi Leonard plays tonight (questionable), I really like the value with the Clippers as a mere 5-point road favorite against the Wizards. I see a very motivated LA team taking the floor in this one, as the last thing they want to do is go into the All-Star break on a 3-game losing streak. Paul George even went as far to say "It's a must-win for us...We wanna go into the break with a win, go into the break with positive...the game in Washington is a must-win" Laying points on the road with the Clippers hasn't been a bad strategy over recent years. LA is 33-18 the last 3 seasons as a road favorite. They are a dominant 20-9 ATS last 29 times they are off an upset loss as a favorite (lost 112-117 at Boston as a 4-point favorite last time out). Wizards are a better team than they get credit for and even with losses in their last 2 games they are 7-3 SU in their last 10. However, I think this recent run has them getting a little too much respect here. Wizards are just 1-4 ATS last 5 at home vs a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and LA crushed Washington 135-116 in an earlier matchup between these two teams this season. Give me the Clippers -5! |
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03-03-21 | Bulls +5 v. Pelicans | 128-124 | Win | 100 | 29 h 43 m | Show | |
40* BULLS/PELICANS NBA ATS SLAUGHTER (Bulls +5) I'm going to take the Chicago Bulls +5 on the road against the New Orleans Pelicans. I think this is the perfect spot to fade the Pelicans. New Orleans just had arguably their biggest win of the season on Monday, as they knocked off the hottest team in the league in the Utah Jazz 129-124 as a 6.5-point dog. Keep in mind that's a game a lot of people tuned into, as it was televised on NBATV. The betting public won't be able to help themselves. All they are going to see is the Pelicans off that big win laying what looks like a short number at home against a mediocre at best Bulls team. What they will fail to take into account is that New Orleans is more than likely destined for a major letdown off that win. Not only will they be feeling fat and happy after that big upset over the Jazz, but they also will have a tough time not looking ahead to Thursday's game against the red-hot Heat in prime time on TNT. Note that New Orleans went all out against the Jazz, 4 of the 5 starters played 34+ minutes with big man Steven Adams the only not to. They also played a mere 3-guys off the bench. I wouldn't be surprised if they either looked to restrict some minutes on key guys in the 1st of a back-to-back or even sit a couple stars completely. I was on the wrong end of a horrible non-cover by Chicago in Monday's 6-point loss to the Nuggets, as the Bulls fouled down 4 with just over 1 second to play and were getting 5. Good news is Chicago is 18-5 ATS the last 2 seasons off a loss by 6 or or less, 9-1 ATS last 10 on the road vs a team from the Western Conference and 7-1 ATS last 8 as a road dog. Give me the Bulls +5! |
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03-03-21 | Hawks -3.5 v. Magic | Top | 115-112 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
50* HAWKS/MAGIC NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Hawks -3.5) I really like the value here with the Hawks as a mere 3.5-point road favorite against the struggling Magic. Atlanta has been one of the biggest underachievers in the first half of the season, but I think now is a great time to buy low on them. The Hawks fired head coach Lloyd Pierce on Monday and in their first game under interim head coach Nate McMillan they beat the Heat on the road 94-80. Doing so despite Trae Young only having a mere 5-points thru the first 3 quarters. I think the effort defensively was as good as it's been for the Hawks in that game and it's not uncommon for a team to flip the script and play with a new since of energy after a head coach gets fired. It also helps they are playing a Magic team that has not been playing well. Orlando comes in having lost 4 straight, giving up 124 or more in each of their last 3 games. They also could be down one of the better players in Evan Fournier, which would be a big loss with all the guys they already have out. Give me the Hawks -4.5! |
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03-02-21 | Nuggets v. Bucks -7 | 128-97 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
40* NUGGETS/BUCKS NBA ATS NO-BRAINER (Bucks -7) I got no problem laying the 7-points with Milwaukee at home against the Nuggets. I'm still pissed about Denver pulling off that stupid cover last night against the Bulls. Nuggets were lucky not to lose that game after leading by double-digits. I just don't see Denver having enough gas in the tank here to keep it close against a Bucks team that I believe is starting to get back on track. Not only are the Nuggets playing on no rest, this will be their 3rd road game in 4 days. A stretch that is that much more difficult when you factor in all the guys the Nuggets have been without. Bucks have won 5 straight and covered in 4 of those. They are also riding a huge wave of momentum after their comeback win at home over the Clippers last time out. Give me Milwaukee -7! |
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03-02-21 | Grizzlies v. Wizards +1 | 125-111 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
40* GRIZZLIES/WIZARDS NBA ATS SLAUGHTER (Wizards +1) I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the Wizards as a home dog against the Grizzlies. Washington isn't viewed as a very good team and are just 13-19 on the season. Thing is the Wizards have been playing their best basketball over the last couple of weeks. Washington is 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games. The other big thing here is we are seeing Memphis way overvalued after their 133-84 thrashing of the Rockets on the road in their last game. That was more of Houston being an absolute mess than anything. Not saying the Grizzlies aren't a good team, but I don't think they should be favored on the road here. Wizards are 10-1 ATS last 11 home games after covering 4 of their last 5. Give me Washington +1! |
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03-01-21 | Nuggets v. Bulls +5 | Top | 118-112 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
50* NUGGETS/BULLS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Bulls +5) I love the value here with the Bulls catching 5-points at home against the Nuggets. Denver is just getting a little too much love here on the road coming off that big 30-point road win over OKC. Even with that win the Nuggets are just 6-7 over their last 13 games. Denver figures to continue to struggle until they get back to full strength. They are down two key players right now in Milsap and Harris. They also won't have JaMychal Green. Bulls come in off a 9-point home loss to the Suns, but had won 5 of 6 prior to that loss. What I love here is that Chicago is well rested, playing on a full 2 days off. They also haven't had to deal with any travel, as they last played on the road Feb. 22nd. Bulls have covered 12 of their last 16 vs a team from the Western Conference. Nuggets are also just 3-15 ATS last 18 off a game where they made 55% or more of their shots and 4-16 ATS last 20 on the road after a win by 15 or more. Give me the Bulls +5! |
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02-28-21 | Wizards v. Celtics -5.5 | Top | 110-111 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
50* WIZARDS/CELTICS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Celtics -5.5) I will take a shot here with the Celtics as a 5.5-point home favorite against the Wizards. Boston made it clear they wanted to finish out their last 4 games before the All-Star break and they delivered in their first game, beating the Pacers 118-112. I've seen it all from this team over the last couple months, but I'm confident they show up here and make easy work of Washington. Boston caught a lot of grief losing at Washington as a 7-point road favorite a couple weeks ago, so I don't see them looking past the Wizards. This is also a brutal spot for Washington, who will not only be playing on the road in the 2nd leg of a back-to-back, but their 5th game in the last 7 days. Give me the Celtics -5.5! |
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02-27-21 | Pacers +1 v. Knicks | 107-110 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
40* PACERS/KNICKS NBA ATS SLAUGHTER (Pacers +1) I think this is the perfect spot to jump on the Pacers. We are getting some exceptional value here with Indiana because of the fact that they have lost 9 of their last 13, while the Knicks come in having won 5 of their last 7. It's clearly not been great for Indiana of late, but I just think more than anything they haven't got some breaks in games and have had played a pretty tough schedule during their current skid. New York is clearly better than they were a season ago, but this is still a mediocre team at best. I mean their 5 wins during this 5-2 run have come against the Kings, Timberwolves, Hawks, Rockets and Wizards. Indiana was a 10-point home favorite against New York back on Jan. 2, which means if those two would have played in NY on that day the line would have been something like Pacers -6 or -7. I just don't think the Pacers are that much worse and the Knicks are that much better that this line should be adjusted this much. Give me Indiana +1! |
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02-26-21 | Clippers -6.5 v. Grizzlies | 119-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
40* CLIPPERS/GRIZZLIES NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Clippers -6.5) I'll take my chances here with the Clippers exacting their revenge and covering the 6.5-point spread against the Grizzlies tonight. These two teams played last night in Memphis and the Grizzlies embarrassed LA in a 122-94 win as a 8-point dog. As you can see we are getting 1.5-points of value off the spread, which I think is huge given how motivated the Clippers should be for this game. LA couldn't have played much worse in last night's loss, as they shot just 40% from the field and allowed Memphis to shoot 54%. They were also -8 in turnovers, were outscored 74-24 in the paint and 21-4 in fast break points. No way this team plays that poorly in back-to-back games against the same team. Give me the Clippers -6.5! |
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02-26-21 | Suns -5.5 v. Bulls | Top | 106-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
50* SUNS/BULLS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Suns -5.5) I will gladly lay the 5.5-points on the road with Phoenix against the Bulls. I just think Chicago is getting a little too much respect in this one. Bulls have gone 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games, but it's really not that impressive when you look at who they have played. The 5 wins during this stretch have come against the Pacers, Pistons, Kings, Rockets and Timberwolves. So 4 of those wins are against teams who currently own the 4 worst records in the league in Detroit, Sacramento, Houston and Minnesota. Indiana is just 15-15 and have been playing some of their worst basketball of late. Phoenix is one of the best teams in the league with a 20-11 record. The Suns have won and covered 9 of their 14 road games this season and will definitely be motivated for this game coming off an ugly 121-124 loss at home to Charlotte as a 9-point favorite. Give me Phoenix -5.5! |
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02-24-21 | Wolves v. Bulls -4 | Top | 126-133 | Win | 100 | 26 h 14 m | Show |
50* WOLVES/BULLS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Bulls -4) I love the Bulls -4 at home against the Timberwolves tonight. Chicago has won 4 of their last 5 and have owned bad teams at home like Minnesota, cashing 8 of their last 10 at home against a team with a losing road record. The Timberwolves are just 1-9 in their last 10 games, have failed to cover 5 straight and are a mere 3-13 on the road this season. If that's not bad enough, Minnesota is also in a horrible rest situation playing on no rest and their 3rd road game in 4 days. This line should be closer to 7. Give me the Bulls -4! |
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02-24-21 | Warriors v. Pacers -3 | 111-107 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 24 m | Show | |
40* WARRIORS/PACERS NBA ATS NO-BRAINER (Pacers -3) I'm going to take the Indiana Pacers -3 at home against the Golden State Warriors. I just feel this is too good a price to pass up with the Pacers at home, given the huge rest edge they will have on Wednesday. Indiana has had the last week off after Saturday's game at Houston was postponed because of the ice storm that hit Texas and Monday's game at home against the Spurs because of a Covid outbreak within the San Antonio organization. While the Pacers will be fresh and eager to get back in action, the Warriors will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back after Tuesday's game in New York against the Knicks. Not only will Golden State be on no rest, but this will be their 4th game in 6 days as they played a back-to-back at Orlando and Charlotte on Friday/Saturday. The word is the Warriors could be getting back two big men in Kevon Looney and James Wiseman for the game against the Knicks. Those are definitely two key guys returning for Golden State, but if they play against New York I wouldn't be shocked if they played it safe and didn't play them against the Pacers. Either way those two figure to be a little rusty. I also wouldn't be surprised if the Warriors didn't rest some other guys in this spot. Also worth pointing out Golden State has been a good fade on no rest, as they are just 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 games in the second of a back-to-back. They are also just 5-13 ATS last 18 trips to Indiana. Give me the Pacers -3! |
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02-23-21 | 76ers -1.5 v. Raptors | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
40* 76ERS/RAPTORS NBA ATS SLAUGHTER (76ers -1.5) I'll take my chances here with the 76ers as a mere 1.5-point road favorite against the Raptors. I know Toronto has been playing well here of late, having won 4 straight and covered in 9 of their last 12. Raptors also just beat Philly at home 110-103 on Sunday as a 3-point dog. I just think it's going to be really tough here for Toronto to beat this 76ers team in back-to-back games. One thing to keep in mind with that recent meeting is Philadelphia was right there with a chance to win despite shooting a miserable 38.8% from the field and allowing the Raptors to shoot 49.4%. 76ers get their revenge. Give me Philadelphia -1.5! |
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02-23-21 | Warriors -2.5 v. Knicks | Top | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
50* WARRIORS/KNICKS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Warriors -2.5) I absolutely love this spot and price with Golden State as a mere 2.5-point road favorite against the Knicks. Warriors are going to be extremely motivated to get back in the win column after giving away their last two games at Orlando and Charlotte. I also think there's some value here because of how well New York has been fairing of late. Knicks are 6-3 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games. Thing is a lot of these wins have come against bad teams. I think they also benefit a lot from teams not showing up with their "A" game against them. The Warriors will be ready for this one and could be getting a huge boost to their rotation. After playing several games now without a traditional center, both Kevin Looney and James Wiseman could be returning for this game. Both practiced in full, so while they are questionable, it seems likely both will suit up. Either way, I like the Warriors to get the win and cover here. Give me Golden State -2.5! |
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02-21-21 | 76ers -2.5 v. Raptors | 103-110 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
40* 76ERS/RAPTORS NBA SHARP STAKE (76ers -2.5) I will gladly lay the 2.5-points on the road with the 76ers as they visit the Raptors on Sunday. When Philadelphia has had their full complement of players this season, they have been extremely tough to beat. While the Nets may have overtaken Philly as the team to beat in the East, this is still an extremely talented team. Toronto has been playing better here of late, but are unlikely to have one of the best players in Kyle Lowry. I just think that's a big loss to overcome in this matchup. We saw the Raptors only score 86 points in their last game against the Wolves without him. I know this team just swept the Bucks in a mini 2 game series at Milwaukee, but I think it has them a bit overvalued in this spot. Give me the 76ers -2.5! |
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02-21-21 | Pistons v. Magic -1.5 | Top | 96-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
50* PISTONS/MAGIC NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Magic -1.5) I can't help myself here with the Magic as a mere 1.5-point home favorite against the Pistons. Orlando has won 3 of their last 4 and covered 4 of their last 5. It's no coincidence their recent strong play has coincided with them getting back a few guys from injury. I just don't think the number here is near enough with what the Pistons are working with right now. Detroit won't have Delon Wright for this game and are sitting one of their best players in Blake Griffin to be traded. It's a real struggle for this Pistons team to score and it's why this team is a mere 2-13 SU in road games this year. Give me the Magic -1.5! |
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02-20-21 | Kings -2 v. Bulls | 114-122 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
40* KINGS/BULLS NBA NO DOUBT BLOWOUT (Kings -2) I have to take a shot here with Sacramento. The Kings come in having lost 5 straight, all at home, and yet are laying points on the road against the Bulls? This line makes absolutely no sense. The betting public is going to be all over Chicago. There's no choice here but to trust the oddsmakers and take the Kings. Sacramento is definitely going to be motivated to get back in the win column, but their biggest advantage in this game is rest. Kings were off yesterday and will be playing just their 2nd game in the last 5 days. Bulls on the other hand are playing on no rest after last night's prime time matchup with the 76ers on ESPN. Give me Sacramento -2! |
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02-20-21 | Heat +3 v. Lakers | 96-94 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
40* HEAT/LAKERS NBA ATS NO-BRAINER (Heat +3) I will take my chances here with the Heat as a small 3-point road dog against the Lakers. The betting public can't help themselves when it comes to betting LA, but this is not the time to be backing the Lakers. They are without Anthony Davis and Dennis Schroder right now. The got LeBron, but that offense looked a bit lost in their last game against an awful Brooklyn team. The Nets didn't care who was suiting up for LA, they wanted to send a message to the defending champs. It's going to be the same thing for Miami, who as even more incentive to want to win here after losing the Lakers in the Finals last year. Give me the Kings +3! |
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02-18-21 | Raptors v. Bucks -5.5 | 110-96 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
40* RAPTORS/BUCKS NBA ATS SLAUGHTER (Bucks -5.5) I will gladly lay the 5.5-points at home with Milwaukee against the Raptors. This feels like the ultimate time to buy low on the Bucks, who have dropped 4 straight and the most recent loss was a 113-124 home loss to the same Toronto team on Tuesday. So not only do we have one of the best teams in the league extremely motivated to get back in the win column, but they are playing with some serious revenge. Toronto could also be down one of their best players with Kyle Lowry questionable to play after leaving the game on Tuesday with an ankle injury. Bucks are 32-16 ATS last 48 off an upset loss as a favorite and 15-3 ATS last 18 when off loss by 10 or more as a favorite. Give me Milwaukee -5.5! |
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02-16-21 | Nuggets v. Celtics -2.5 | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
40* NUGGETS/CELTICS NBA SHARP STAKE (Celtics -2.5) I think this is the perfect spot to back the Celtics as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Nuggets on Tuesday. Boston couldn't look much worse here of late, as they have lost 4 of 5 with the last two being ugly losses to the Pistons as a 7-point home favorite and the Wizards as a 7-point road favorite. I just think enough is enough with this poor play and we are going to see the Celtics come out with one of their best showings of the season tonight. On the flip side of this, I love fading the Nuggets here. Denver is in a big letdown spot after their big home win over the Lakers on Sunday. On top of that, this is a banged up Nuggets team, who will be without Garry Harris, Will Barton and Paul Millsap. Monte Morris is also questionable. If Morris can't play they got absolutely nothing at the guard position outside of Murray. Give me the Celtics -2.5! |
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02-13-21 | 76ers v. Suns +1 | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
40* 76ERS/SUNS NBA VEGAS MASSACRE (Suns +1) I will gladly back the red-hot Suns as a home dog against the 76ers in Saturday's early matchup on the pro hardwood. I really like this Philadelphia team, but this is far from an ideal spot for the 76ers, who are playing their 3rd of 4 on their west coast trip. While Philadelphia's likely running on fumes at this point, the Suns are going to be extremely fresh. Not only has Phoenix had to deal with no travel of late, playing their 5th straight at home, they also will be playing here on a full 2 days of rest. Suns are also playing their best basketball of the season. They are 7-1 SU and 7-1 ATS over their last 8. Chris Paul and Devin Booker are really starting to gel together. Give me the Suns +1! |
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02-12-21 | Clippers -6 v. Bulls | 125-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
40* CLIPPERS/BULLS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Clippers -6) I will gladly take a shot here with the Clippers now that this line has dropped down. LAC has been one of the better road teams in the league the last few years. Despite how often they are asked to lay big numbers, the Clippers have gone 31-16 ATS in their last 47 as a road favorite. They are 10-4 SU and 9-5 ATS away from home this season. I think we are getting value here due to the fact that they have failed to cover each of their last 3. As well as the fact that Chicago is coming off such an impressive 129-116 win at home over the Pelicans. Bulls shot a ridiculous 59.3% from the field in that game and hit a franchise record 25 3-pointers. I see that game as more of a fluke than anything. Chicago had gone just 2-6 SU in their previous 8 games and it's worth noting they were catching the Pelicans in the second game of a back-to-back. Bulls are just 1-12 ATS last 13 home games off a home win. Give me the Clippers -6! |
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02-12-21 | Pelicans +3 v. Mavs | 130-143 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
40* PELICANS/MAVS NBA on ESPN NO-BRAINER (Pelicans +3) I was just on the Mavs in their last game against Atlanta, which they won SU but couldn't cover as a 3.5-point favorite. It was an impressive win for the Mavs, who looked dead in the water in the 3rd quarter. It took some ridiculous shooting for them to win that game in the 4th and I just don't think it's sustainable. With how bad their defense is, its really bad, it's hard to trust this team against a Pelicans team that is really clicking on the offensive end. I don't think the Mavs will have any answer for Zion after watching John Collins score 33 against them on Wednesday. Note Collins scored 35 against them the week before. Pelicans are off a 116-129 loss at Chicago, but they shot 50.6% from the field. Chicago just couldn't miss. It was the 5th straight game that New Orleans hit at least 50% from the field. I just don't know that a tired Mavs team will be able to keep pace. Give me the Pelicans +3! |
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02-12-21 | Wolves v. Hornets -3.5 | 114-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
40* WOLVES/HORNETS NBA ATS STEAMROLLER (Hornets -3.5) I just can't help myself here with Charlotte as a small home favorite against the Timberwolves. As obvious as this play might look to some, I do think we are getting a good price here because of the fact that Minnesota has gone 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games and just covered at home against LAC in the first game with Karl Anthony-Towns back in the mix. Towns was decent in his first game back, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's a little more sluggish in his second game on the road with just 1 day between games. Aside from Towns and the T-Wolves recent ATS surge, I also think we are getting a good price with Charlotte given they are coming off an ugly 114-130 loss at Memphis. Hornets shot 55% from the field in the defeat and have scored 111 or more in 7 straight. Lastly, let's also not overlook the fact that the Timberwolves are a mere 2-11 SU on the road this season and are giving up 118.6 ppg on 49% shooting away from home. They also will be without one of their top scorers in D'Angelo Russell. Give me the Hornets -3.5! |
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02-11-21 | Heat v. Rockets +2.5 | Top | 101-94 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
50* HEAT/ROCKETS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Rockets +2.5) I will gladly back the Rockets as a home dog against the Heat. I know that Miami has won 3 straight, but this team has a long way to go before they can be treated like the team that made the NBA Finals last year. Those 3 wins were against the Knicks twice and the Wizards. Not to mention they barely beat New York in their two meetings with them and had lost two days earlier to Washington before winning the rematch. Houston has lost their last 3, but they haven't been full strength much at all here of late. They rested Wall and Gordon in the first of a back-to-back and Oladipo in the second game. Not having those guys combined with the injury to Wood put them in a horrible spot. All 3 of those guys should be in action here. Simply put, the Heat should not be a road favorite in this one. Give me the Rockets +2.5! |
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02-10-21 | Hawks v. Mavs -3.5 | 117-118 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 57 m | Show | |
40* HAWKS/MAVERICKS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Mavs -3.5) I'm going to take the Dallas Mavericks -3.5 at home against the Atlanta Hawks. I just can't help myself here with the Mavs at this price. While Dallas has won 3 of 4 since enduring that 6-game losing streak, they have failed to cover each of their last 3 and are just 1-9 ATS over their last 10 games. I strongly believe that this recent stretch of failed covers is playing into a very favorable line with Dallas at home. Their only cover during this stretch was last week's 122-116 win at Atlanta. Note that the Mavs were a 2-point road favorite in that matchup, which means they should be closer to a 5.5-6-point home favorite against the Hawks. Another thing to note from that recent meeting is Dallas was able to win by 6 on the road, despite the fact that the Hawks shot 50% from the field and were 14 of 38 from deep. The Mavs won that game at the free throw line and with a +6 edge in turnovers. I think now that they have got everyone back and into the mix of things, this is an even stronger Mavs team than the one that won in Atlanta. It's also not like the Hawks are playing great basketball. They come in off a win at home over the Raptors, but had lost 3 straight prior and caught Toronto coming off a huge game against the Nets the night before. Simply put I think Atlanta is getting way too much respect here. Give me the Mavs -3.5! |
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02-09-21 | Knicks v. Heat -5.5 | 96-98 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
40* KNICKS/HEAT NBA ATS NO-BRAINER (Heat -5.5) We cashed on the Heat -5.5 at New York on Sunday, as Miami did just enough to secure a cover in a 109-103 win. That's now back-to-back wins and covers for the Heat after a brutal stretch where they went just 1-7 SU and 1-7 ATS over 8 games. Key here is Miami has got back their best player in Jimmy Butler and while they aren't full strength, they are as healthy as they have been. Heat also are in a position where they have to keep fighting for every win, as they got a lot of ground to make up with a record of 9-14. Simply put, they can't afford a loss here at home to a mediocre Knicks team and it's a big deal that they are switching venues, as it's not been factored into the line at all as we are getting Miami at the same price as we just got them on the road. Give me the Heat -5.5! |
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02-08-21 | Wizards v. Bulls -2.5 | 105-101 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
40* WIZARDS/BULLS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Bulls -2.5) I'll back Chicago as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Wizards. The Bulls will be without a few key players in Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter and Wendell Carter, but this Chicago team is filled with a bunch of above average role players. They still got plenty at their disposal to take out a bad team like Washington. Wizards are just 5-15 overall and 3-8 on the road. The books were way off with their number in their last game, listing the Wizards as a 1.5-point road favorite. A game they lost 97-119. Now they are another near pick'em on the road in a bad spot, playing their 4th straight on the road and on no rest. Give me the Bulls -2.5! |
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02-08-21 | Raptors -2 v. Grizzlies | Top | 128-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
50* RAPTORS/GRIZZLIES NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Raptors -2) I love the Raptors here at basically a pick'em on the road against the Grizzlies. Memphis was playing really well for awhile, but they have cooled back off with 3 straight losses. Toronto to me feels like they are about to make their push after sleepwalking through the first 1/4 of the season. Raptors did lose last time out at Atlanta, but that was in a huge flat spot after their big win over the Nets. I look for Toronto to return to their winning form here and wouldn't be shocked if they won here going away. Give me the Raptors -2! |
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02-07-21 | Heat -5.5 v. Knicks | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 4 h 36 m | Show | |
40* HEAT/KNICKS NBA ATS SLAUGHTER (Heat -5.5) I'll take my chances here with Miami as a 5.5-point road favorite at New York on Sunday. The Heat have been one of the biggest disappointments in the league. After a surprise run to the NBA Finals in the bubble, Miami is sitting with a record of just 8-14. Only the Wizards, Pistons and Timberwolves have fewer wins. It's not just bad play. Injuries and players constantly being out because of covid have played the biggest role in the Heat's slow start. While they won't have Goran Dragic for this one, they got the majority of their core available and are coming off one of their best showings of the season in Friday's 122-95 win over the Wizards. The Knicks come in having won 2 straight, but the first was against the Bulls in a rematch after Chicago had beat them two nights earlier. The other was yesterday's easy win over a depleted Blazers team. I just think playing on no rest against a hungry Heat team is the perfect recipe for a Miami cover. Give me the Heat -5.5! |
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02-06-21 | Warriors v. Mavs -4 | 132-134 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
40* WARRIORS/MAVS NBA STEAMROLLER (Mavs -4) I really like the Mavs as a slim 4-point home favorite against the Warriors on Saturday. Big time revenge game here for Dallas after losing 116-147 at home to Golden State on Thursday. Big thing to note about that loss is the Mavs were playing on no rest after a road win at Atlanta on Wednesday. There's also not a lot they could do with how well the Warriors shot the ball in that last game. Golden State hit 57.3% of their shot attempts and were 22 of 43 (51.2%) from behind the 3-point line. Look for some big regression from the Warriors and for Dallas to bounce back in a big way after they only shot 41.3% from the field. Give me the Mavs -4! |
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02-06-21 | Spurs v. Rockets -1.5 | 111-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
40* SPURS/ROCKETS NBA NO-BRAINER (Rockets -1.5) I just can't help myself here with the Rockets as a mere 1.5-point home favorite against the Spurs. Houston is a team on the rise right now. The Rockets come in having won 7 of their last 8 games. Their only loss came at OKC two nights after they absolutely destroyed the Thunder on the road. While Houston is surging, the Spurs have really not been playing well. San Antonio did win their last game at home against the Timberwolves, but only by 3 as a 7.5-point favorite. Prior to that they lost back-to-back at home to Memphis by 17 and 31 points. Spurs are playing right now without one of their best players in LaMarcus Aldridge. They also will be without starting guard Lonnie Walker and starting point guard Dejounte Murray is questionable. Give me the Rockets -1.5! |
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02-05-21 | Bulls -2 v. Magic | Top | 119-123 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
50* BULLS/MAGIC NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Bulls -2) I will gladly lay a mere 2-points on the road with Chicago against a Magic team that has completely fallen off here of late. Orlando comes in having lost 4 straight with all 4 losses coming by at least 13 points. They are just 2-12 SU and 3-11 ATS over their last 14 games. The Bulls are 1-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last 5, but I still like what I've seen out of this Chicago team. With all the injuries the Magic are dealing with combined with their recent form, I feel like this number should be 3-4 points more than what it is. Keep in mind the Bulls have been a great bet away from the United Center as they are 8-2 ATS in their 10 road games. Magic are just 4-7 ATS at home and 3-15 ATS over the last 2 seasons as a home dog. Give me Chicago -2! |
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02-04-21 | Nuggets +5 v. Lakers | 93-114 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
40* NUGGETS/LAKERS NBA LATE NIGHT BAILOUT (Nuggets +5) Most are going to see the Lakers as a mere 5-point home favorite and run to place a bet on LA in this one. I'm going the other way here. After a slow start to the season the Nuggets have really come to life over the last couple of weeks. Denver is both 6-1 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games. There's zero doubt that we are going to get a max effort here from the Nuggets, as this is their first game against the Lakers since they got knocked out of the playoffs by LA in the Western Conference Finals last year. Denver is 100% going to see this game as a measuring stick game to see where they are. As for the Lakers, I think they could have a hard time getting up for this game. While LA has had the last 2 days off, there's a good chance they are still feeling the effects of that long 7-game east coast road trip they were just on. It's a spot they haven't performed well in, as they are 0-4 ATS last 4 times playing at home after a road trip of 7 or more days. They are also just 1-4 ATS last 5 at home, while Denver is 7-3 SU on the road. Another thing to note is that these two will turn around and play each other again in LA on Saturday, which I think only adds to the likelihood of the Lakers not showing up with their best effort in this one. Give me the Nuggets +5! |
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02-03-21 | Celtics v. Kings +2 | 111-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
40* CELTICS/KINGS NBA ATS SLAUGHTER (Kings +2) We played against the Celtics last night and lost, as Boston was able to squeak out a 111-107 win at Golden State, just barely covering as a 2.5-point favorite. I'm not going to let that result keep me from fading the Celtics again tonight. Boston is playing without the heart and soul of their team in Marcus Smart and after their big 3 of Kemba Walker, Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brown all played big minutes last night, this is the ultimate flat spot here for the Celtics in what is now their second game on their 5-game west coast trip. Also, you have Boston in a big sandwich spot coming off that prime time game on TNT against the Warriors with another nationally televised game on deck against the Clippers on ESPN Friday. Give me the Kings +2! |
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02-03-21 | Knicks v. Bulls -3.5 | 107-103 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 40 m | Show | |
40* KNICKS/BULLS NBA ATS NO-BRAINER (Bulls -3.5) I'm going to take the Chicago Bulls -3.5 at home against the New York Knicks. These two teams just played each other on Monday, which the Bulls won 110-102 as a 3.5-point home favorite. I know that came was really close before Chicago pulled away late for the cover, but I can't help myself but take a shot with the Bulls at the same price on Wednesday. You might be thinking New York will be the more motivated team having lost the first meeting, but the numbers suggest it's a bad move to back the Knicks because of revenge. Home teams that won the first meeting of these home and home series are 13-1 SU and 12-2 ATS the last 14 times it's come up. I know the overall records are almost the same with the Knicks sitting at 9-13 and the Bulls at 8-11, but I don't think there's any question that Chicago is the more talented of the two teams. More than half of the Bulls 11 losses this season have come by 4 or fewer points. In comparison, just 2 of the Knicks 13 losses have been by 4 or fewer. Also a lot of the Bulls struggles have come against some of the better teams in the league. Chicago is 9-3 ATS last 12 games vs a team with a losing record and a perfect 6-0 ATS last 6 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Give me the Bulls -3.5! |
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02-02-21 | Celtics v. Warriors +2.5 | 111-107 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
40* CELTICS/WARRIORS NBA TNT SHARP STAKE (Warriors +2.5) I will take my chances here with the Warriors as a small 2.5-point home dog against the Celtics in Tuesday's TNT showdown. Both teams are down a key player with Boston having lost guard Marcus Smart and Golden State playing without rookie big man James Wiseman. While both are big losses, I think the loss of Smart is really a big blow to the Celtics, especially in this game where they could really use his defense on Steph Curry. If you look back in the past, Curry has used and abused Boston's Kemba Walker. Not to mention Curry is starting to find his groove and we know the Warriors will be up for this game. I do have some concerns here with the Celtics mindset coming off that devastating home loss to the Lakers on Saturday. That was such a huge game there's going to be a letdown after that matchup. Add in the lengthy road trip to the west coast and I just think the Celtics could be sleepwalking through the first couple quarters. Give me the Warriors +2.5! |
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02-01-21 | Grizzlies v. Spurs -3.5 | 133-102 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
40* GRIZZLIES/SPURS NBA ATS NO-BRAINER (Spurs -3.5) I will gladly take my chances here with the Spurs as a small 3.5-point favorite against the Grizzlies. These two teams just played each other in San Antonio on Saturday and Memphis won that game 129-112 as a 3.5-point dog. It was the Grizzlies 6th straight win. It's just not easy beating the same team twice in a row, especially on the road. Spurs are also a team that has a history of bouncing back from a loss to an opponent. San Antonio is 29-17 ATS last 2 seasons when revenging a loss and 40-15 ATS in the last 3 seasons when revenging a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. Memphis is also a mere 9-24 ATS in their last 33 when they come in having won 6 or more games in a row. Give me the Spurs -3.5! |
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01-31-21 | Jazz v. Nuggets -1 | Top | 117-128 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
50* JAZZ/NUGGETS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Nuggets -1) I will gladly lay the -1 with the Nuggets at home against the Jazz. Most will avoid betting against Utah given they have won and covered 11 straight games, but if you take a closer look at the schedule for the Jazz they have really been beating up on a bunch of bad teams or teams not playing up to their potential. One of those wins was on the road against Denver, but Utah only managed to win that game 109-105 despite them shooting 51.3% from the field and the Nuggets only shooting 40.0% Denver outrebounded Utah 63-50 and were +4 in the turnover department. Since that loss the Nuggets have gone 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS with the only loss coming in the final game of a 5-game road trip. Give me the Nuggets -1! |
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01-30-21 | Suns v. Mavs -2 | 111-105 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
40* SUNS/MAVS NBA ATS SLAUGHTER (Mavs -2) A lot of people might be hesitant to back Dallas even as a small 2-point home favorite against the Suns, as the Mavs come in having lost 4 straight, including back-to-back blowout losses at Utah. They also will be on no rest, but because last night's game wasn't close against the Jazz, they were able to limit the minutes of their starters. The Suns are also the perfect team to get right against. Phoenix is just 2-5 in their last 7 games and are expected to once again be without their best player in Devin Booker. I just think Booker's absence is much bigger than this line would suggest and I'm expecting a very motivated and inspired effort here from Dallas. Give me the Mavs -2! |
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01-30-21 | Lakers -1.5 v. Celtics | 96-95 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
40* LAKERS/CELTICS NBA ATS NO-BRAINER (Lakers -1.5) I don't play the Lakers a ton because the line is almost always inflated with them, but I will gladly back LA at basically a pick'em on the road against the Celtics. A big reason for that is we can bank on a big time effort from the Lakers coming off back-to-back losses. LA doesn't take losing lightly and are going to be a pissed off bunch after an embarrassing 15-point loss to an awful Detroit team on Thursday. Boston is a good team and has been playing well of late, but are simply outclassed and more than anything catching the Lakers at the wrong time. LeBron and AD will be ready to go in prime time and I wouldn't be surprised if this got ugly. Give me the Lakers -1.5! |
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01-30-21 | Blazers v. Bulls -2 | Top | 123-122 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
50* BLAZERS/BULLS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Bulls -2) I will gladly back Chicago as a small 2-point home favorite against the Blazers. The Bulls have lost their last two games and failed to cover both after an incredible 11-2 ATS run in their previous 13 games. This feels like the perfect spot to jump back on Chicago, as they are not only going to be motivated to get back in the win column, but they are going to have extremely fresh legs after a 4-day break. As for the Blazers they are playing their 2nd road game in 3 days and are missing a bunch of key players right now. Portland will be without CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic. They are also still without Zach Collins and Robert Covington is questionable. Portland is simply getting too much respect on the road in this one. Give me the Bulls -2! |
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01-29-21 | Clippers v. Magic -3.5 | Top | 116-90 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
50* CLIPPERS/MAGIC NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Magic -3.5) I'll gladly take my chances here with the Magic as a 3.5-point home favorite against the Clippers tonight. LA was able to win at Miami last night without George or Leonard and that will entice a lot of square bettors to back them here as a road dog against a mediocre Orlando team. I see it the exact opposite. With their two starts both still out, this has flat spot written all over it for the Clippers playing a bad team on no rest in what will be their 3rd road game in 4 nights. Not to mention LA had to use up a ton of energy in their win against the Heat as they trailed by as many as 18 in that game. I'm confident Orlando will show up at home and that should be more than enough to get the dub and cover. Give me the Magic -3.5! |
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01-29-21 | Pacers v. Hornets +3.5 | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
40* PACERS/HORNETS NBA ATS STEAMROLLER (Hornets +3.5) We backed Charlotte at basically the same price on Wednesday and came up short, as the Pacers won 116-106. It's not going to stop me from backing the Hornets again in the rematch. If anything I like them even more in this rematch spot, as they are going to be the more motivated team here. This is also a bit of a flat spot for the Pacers, as they just beat Charlotte a couple days ago and have a massive home game on deck Sunday against East leader Philadelphia. Not to mention I don't think Indiana can expect to get another 28 off the bench from Doug McDermott (only 3rd time all season he's scored more than 20) and a triple-double from Sabonis. Give me the Hornets +3.5! |
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01-28-21 | Blazers v. Rockets -4.5 | Top | 101-104 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
50* BLAZERS/ROCKETS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Rockets -4.5) I love the value we are getting with the Rockets at -4.5 at home against a depleted Blazers team. I just feel like Houston is flying under the radar right now. Everyone kind of threw this team under the bus when they traded away Harden, but there's a ton of talent still on this team and they are expected to get back one of their best players in big man Christian Wood. As for Portland, they are down 3 starters in CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic and Robert Covington. They are also still without a likely starter in Zach Collins. As good as Damian Lillard is, and he's really good, he just doesn't have enough around him right now to be all that competitive, especially on the road against a team like Houston that is playing with a chip on their shoulder. Give me the Rockets -4.5! |
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01-27-21 | Celtics -3 v. Spurs | 106-110 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 1 m | Show | |
40* CELTICS/SPURS NBA ATS NO-BRAINER (Celtics -3) I'm going to take the Boston Celtics -3 on the road against the San Antonio Spurs. I've backed Boston in each of their last two games and didn't have to sweat either game as they destroyed the Cavs 141-103 as a 6-point home favorite on Sunday and cruised to a 119-103 win at Chicago on Monday. I'm sure some might hesitate to back Boston in this game because of the fact that they got a huge home game on deck against the Lakers Saturday night that will be televised on ABC. I just don't think it's going to play as big a role with them getting a full 2 days off before that game. I also think the Celtics are playing with a sense of urgency right now and there should be some excitement around this game against San Antonio. Assuming Boston doesn't rest anyone this is going to be their first game this season with Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker and Jaylen Brown on the floor at the same time. It's really as healthy as the Celtics have been all season. On the flip side of this, the Spurs just had a game on Monday that was postponed because neither them or the Pelicans had the required 8 players available to play. As of right now there's not anyone new on the injury report for San Antonio, but my guess is we are going to see at least a couple key guys for the Spurs miss this game. Even if that's not the case, I still like Boston in this spot, especially at this price. Give me the Celtics -3 |
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01-27-21 | Pacers v. Hornets +1.5 | 116-106 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
40* PACERS/HORNETS NBA ATS MASSACRE (Hornets +1.5) I will take my chances here with Charlotte as a small home dog against the Pacers. If both teams were healthy and playing on equal rest, Indiana is the better team, but that's just not how this one shapes up. The Pacers are still down two big pieces to the puzzle in T.J Warren and Caris LeVert. I also think there's a good chance they will be without arguably their best player in Domantas Sabonis, who injured his knee in the first quarter of their last game and didn't return. The x-rays did come back negative and Sabonis is listed as questionable, but I have to think they play it safe here and give him this game off with just 1 day off. I also think Indiana as a team is tired right now. The Pacers will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights as well as their 5th game in the last 8 days. I also think there's a little less motivation in this game for Indiana given the two will turn around and play again at Charlotte on Friday. Give me the Hornets +1.5! |
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01-26-21 | Wizards v. Rockets -3.5 | Top | 88-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
50* WIZARDS/ROCKETS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Rockets -3.5) I will gladly lay the 3.5-points with Houston at home against a depleted Wizards team. Washington will barely have enough guys to field a team in this game, as Hachimaura, Wagner, Smith, Bertans, Brown Jr, Avdija are all out for quarantine. Neto is also questionable. If he doesn't play they will be down 2 starters and the entire 2nd unit. The Rockets are going to be without Christian Wood, but have a more than capable replacement in veteran DeMarcus Cousins. Plus they got a pretty good backcourt trio of John Wall, Eric Gordon and Victor Oladipo. This team is not in as bad a shape as many people think after the Harden trade. This is one they should win with relative ease. Give me the Rockets -3.5! |
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01-25-21 | Celtics -5 v. Bulls | 119-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
40* CELTICS/BULLS NBA SHARP STAKE (Celtics -5) I got no problem laying the 5-points with Boston on the road against the Bulls. The Celtics snapped a 3-game losing streak with a 141-103 blowout win at home against the Cavs on Sunday. While Boston will be on no rest here, they didn't have a single player play more than 27 minutes yesterday and are also expected to get back one of their best players in Jason Tatum. The Bulls have been playing well, especially in terms of the spread, as they are 11-3 ATS in their last 14, but they did fail to cover last time out in a 90-101 loss to the Lakers. Bulls scored just 33 points in the first half and were down by 30 at intermission. They did make it look respectable with a decent 2nd half surge, but I just wonder if that wasn't the start of a poor stretch for this team. They really didn't shoot the ball well and I just don't see Boston not getting up here having lost 3 of their last 4. Give me the Celtics -5! |
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01-25-21 | Raptors v. Pacers -2 | 114-129 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
40* RAPTORS/PACERS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Pacers -2) I like the Pacers to get their revenge against the Raptors in Monday's rematch. These two teams played on Sunday and Toronto squeaked out a 107-102 win. Considering Malcolm Brogdon only had 12 points and Domantas Sabonis managed just 10 points and didn't score in the 2nd half, that's a pretty good sign that Indiana can flip the script. There's also a chance Toronto could be down two of their better players as both Kyle Lowry and Pascal Siakam are listed as questionable after not playing on Sunday. More than anything, I just feel like Indiana is the better team and will be the more motivated side at home in this one. Give me the Pacers -2! |
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01-24-21 | Cavs v. Celtics -6 | 103-141 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
40* CAVS/CELTICS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Celtics -6) I really like Boston at -6 at home against the Cavs. I think we are getting great value here with Boston coming off 3 straight losses against a Cleveland team that has won 3 straight. Thing is the Celtics just lost back-to-back road games at Philadelphia (I was on the 76ers in both games). Even if they were healthy those two games would have been tough to win. The Cavs just pulled off two big upset wins at home against the Nets in Brooklyn's first two games with their Big 3 of Irving, Durant and Harden. Those were huge games for Cleveland and even more so given they had a couple guys they recently acquired from Brooklyn in that Harden trade. You also have to factor in just how bad the Nets are defensively right now with Irving and Harden both major liabilities on that side of the ball. It won't be so easy against a motivated Celtics team on Sunday. Give me Boston -6! |
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01-23-21 | Nuggets v. Suns +2.5 | 120-112 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
40* NUGGETS/SUNS NBA ATS SLAUGHTER (Suns +2.5) I'll take my chances here with Phoenix as a home dog against the Nuggets in a rematch from last night, which the Suns saw a double-digit lead evaporate in the 2nd half of a 126-130 loss. It's really tough to beat the same team in back-to-back games, especially on the road and I just don't think the Nuggets should be favored in this spot. Suns are 20-9 ATS last 29 revenging a home loss, while the Nuggets are just 4-14 ATS last 18 after covering the spread in 2 straight games and 15-29 ATS last 44 on the road after scoring 115 or more points. Give me Phoenix +2.5! |
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01-23-21 | Pelicans -8 v. Wolves | 110-120 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
40* PELICANS/WOLVES NBA NO-BRAINER (Pelicans -8) I got no problem laying the big number with New Orleans on the road against the Timberwolves. It's been a disappointing start to the season for the Pelicans, who are sitting at 5-9, but we know the talent is there and I just think we are going to get a big time effort here in a game they have to feel like they have to have. The Timberwolves are every bit as bad as their 3-11 record, especially as long as they continue to play without their best player in Karl Anthony-Towns. The offense for Minnesota has been dreadful of late, as they are averaging just 98.8 ppg in their last 5. This is also a brutal spot for Minnesota playing on no rest after last night's ugly 116-98 loss at home to the Hawks. Give me the Pelicans -8! |
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01-22-21 | Celtics v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 110-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
50* CELTICS/76ERS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (76ers -4.5) We played and won on the 76ers in Wednesday's 117-109 win at home over the Celtics and will fire right back with Philadelphia at the same price on Friday. I know it can be difficult to beat a team twice in a row, but with the 76ers back to full strength (getting back Seth Curry tonight) and the Celtics still without one of their best players in Jason Tatum this is just too good a price to pass up. Celtics had no answer for Embiid in the game on Wednesday. He shot 12 of 19 from the field and 17 of 21 from the free throw line in route to 42 points. He should be in store for another big game here, as Boston just doesn't have the guys inside to contain him. I also love the 76ers getting Curry back. He was really playing well before he went out. Philadelphia is also 8-1 SU at home this year. Give me the 76ers -4.5! |
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01-21-21 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Jazz | Top | 118-129 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
50* PELICANS/JAZZ NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Pelicans +6.5) I'll take my chances here with New Orleans as a 6.5-point road dog against the Jazz. These two teams faced off in Utah on Tuesday and the Jazz won that matchup 118-102. Not a lot the Pelicans could do in that first meeting, as Utah went off from behind the 3-point line, hitting 21 of 47 (45%) from deep. New Orleans in comparison was just 6 of 26 (23%). One thing I liked from that first meeting is the fact that Utah had no answer for Zion Williamson, as he went 14 of 19 for 32 points. If he'd just got a little more help from his supporting cast, that would have been a much different outcome. New Orleans should be the much more motivated team in the rematch and I not only think they cover, but I give them a great shot here of winning the game outright. Give me the Pelicans +6.5! |
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01-20-21 | Heat v. Raptors -4 | 111-102 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
40* HEAT/RAPTORS NBA SHARP STAKE (RAPTORS -4) The Raptors slow start was one of the more surprising developments early on. Toronto opened the season a mere 2-8. Some of that was bad luck, as 4 of those losses were by 5 or fewer and only 2 were by double-digits. Raptors have finally got things going in the right direction with 3 straight wins and a big reason for that is they have got some things figured out with their rotation. Thing is I think we are still getting some value on Toronto because of how they started the year. I just can't pass up on the Raptors at this price with Miami's injury situation. We know the Heat will be without Jimmy Butler and Avery Bradley and there's a chance they won't have Tyler Herro (questionable). Give me the Raptors -4! |
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01-20-21 | Celtics v. 76ers -4.5 | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
40* CELTICS/76ERS NBA NO-BRAINER (76ers -4.5) I like the value here with Philadelphia laying what I feel is a short number against the Celtics. It's been a struggle of late for the 76ers, but that's more because of covid and some injuries to guys like Embiid. Not only has Embiid been upgraded to probable, but so has Seth Curry, who might be their most underrated player. While Philadelphia is getting healthier, Boston is still playing without arguably their best player in Jayson Tatum. They are also adjusting to the return of Kemba Walker, who made his season debut in their last game against the Knicks. He was far from himself, scoring just 9 points in 20 minutes on 3 of 13 shooting. Give me the 76ers -4.5! |
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01-20-21 | Mavs +1 v. Pacers | 124-112 | Win | 100 | 26 h 16 m | Show | |
40* MAVS/PACERS NBA ATS ANNIHILATOR (Mavs +1) I'm going to take the Dallas Mavericks +1 on the road against the Indiana Pacers. Both teams are coming in off an ugly loss. The Mavs got routed 116-93 at Toronto on Monday, while Indiana suffered a 129-96 loss at LA on Sunday. You might think that the Pacers have an edge here with rest given they will have had 2 days to prepare, while Dallas will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. I think fatigue wise both teams are going to be a little bit tired. Indiana just finished up a 4-game west coast road trip that spanned 8 days. The Mavs have a bunch of role players that are questionable to return, but there's a possibility they could get a couple guys back. Either way their starting 5 of Doncic, Brunson, Hardaway Jr, Porzingis and Cauley-Stein should have a big edge in this game. Indiana has been without one of their top scorers in T.J. Warren for a while. They also traded away another top scorer in Victor Oladipo and the guy they got in return, Caris LeVert ended up finding a mass on his kidney in his physical from being traded that has him out. On top of all that, Myles Turner has a fracture in his hand that forced him to miss their last game. Turner did practice on Tuesday, but I would be shocked if he played here. He's still suppose to go and get it reevaluated in a couple days and it was wrapped up pretty good in practice. It might not be the 2-3 weeks they thought, but there's no real incentive here to rush him back. This game also just means more to the Mavs, who after losing 3 straight are now sitting T-10th in the Western Conference. Indiana on the other hand is 4th in the East at 8-5 and just 0.5-game back of Boston for the top spot in the conference. Dallas has gone 27-12 ATS in their last 39 off a loss by 10 or more and are 24-10-1 ATS last 35 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Pacers have failed to cover 4 of their last 5 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Give me the Mavs +1! |
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01-18-21 | Rockets -1.5 v. Bulls | 120-125 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
40* ROCKETS/BULLS NBA SHARP STAKE (Rockets -1.5) I'm going to lay the small number with Houston on the road against the Bulls. The Rockets aren't going to get back John Wall for this game, but Eric Gordon and DeMarcus Cousins are set to return from injuries and Victor Oladipo will be making his debut after getting traded to Houston from Indiana. I really think this is team that is going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder after the Harden trade and while they aren't elite without him, there is a lot of talent on the roster. As for the Bulls, this is a really tough spot for Chicago. They just finished up a 13-day 6-game road trip yesterday at Dallas and are being asked to play their first game back home on no rest. I just think the jet lag is going to really hit this team hard here and with 3-days off after this game it will be really easy for them to just kind of go through the motions here. Give me the Rockets -1.5! |
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01-18-21 | Bucks v. Nets +2 | 123-125 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
40* BUCKS/NETS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Nets +2) Regardless if Kyrie Irving suits up for this game, I will gladly take my chances with Brooklyn as a home dog against the Nets with just the duo of Kevin Durant and James Harden. You have to completely block out what you saw out of Harden in his limited time with Houston this season. He was doing everything in his power to get traded. All you have to do is look at his first game with Brooklyn. Harden scored 32 points with 12 rebounds, 14 assists and 4 steals. Durant scored 42 points as the two combined for 74 in their first game together since their days way back with the Thunder. These two are going to be a nightmare to stop and I see the Nets extremely motivated here to make a statement against the Bucks on their home floor. Give me Brooklyn +2! |
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01-16-21 | Hawks v. Blazers -4.5 | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
40* HAWKS/BLAZERS NBA LATE NIGHT BAILOUT (Blazers -4.5) I know the Blazers are coming off an ugly 87-111 loss at home to the Pacers on Thursday, but that was a tough spot for Portland playing on no rest after a up-and-down 132-126 win at Sacramento the night before. I believe that loss is what's giving us such great value here. Atlanta is broken right now. The Hawks are missing some key pieces and Trae Young is playing with zero confidence. Atlanta comes in having lost 5 of their last 6 and the only win during this stretch was against a depleted 76ers team. Look for Lillard and McCollum to abuse Young in this one. Give me the Blazers -4.5! |
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01-16-21 | Rockets v. Spurs -6.5 | Top | 91-103 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
50* ROCKETS/SPURS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Spurs -6.5) I love the value here with the Spurs at -6.5 at home against the Rockets. These two teams just played each other at San Antonio on Thursday. It was Houston's first game since trading James Harden and they were absolutely depleted in that game. You could tell the Spurs thought they could just go into that game and win without trying. It bit them in the ass. Popovich isn't going to let them make the same mistake twice and with several key players again out for Houston, this game figures to get ugly in a hurry. Give me the Spurs -6.5! |
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01-15-21 | Bulls +1.5 v. Thunder | 125-127 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
40* BULLS/THUNDER NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Bulls +1.5) I'll gladly take the points with Chicago as a small road dog against the Thunder. I'm expecting a big effort here from the Bulls as they are going to want to give their new head coach, Billy Donovan a win in his first game against his old team in OKC. Not only that, Chicago is playing great basketball right now. They have covered in 5 straight and 8 of their last 9 overall. They also are expected to get back one of their best players in Lauri Markkanen. Plus the Bulls have a big edge in rest, as Chicago will be playing on a full 4 days of rest, while the Thunder will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Give me the Bulls +1.5! |
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01-14-21 | Hornets v. Raptors -7 | 108-111 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 48 m | Show | |
40* HORNETS/RAPTORS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Raptors -7) A lot of people are going to look at this line and wonder how the heck a Raptors team that is mere 2-8 to start the season is laying this big a number against a red-hot Hornets team that has won 4 straight going into Wednesday's game against the Mavs. That's the big key here for me. Charlotte will be playing this game on no rest, while the Raptors will be playing on a full two days of rest. Not to mention it will be a lot easier for the Hornets to kind of look past this game given these two teams will come right back and play each other again on Saturday. There's also been some positive signs that Toronto is getting this thing figured out. In their last 3 games they beat the Kings 144-123, lost by just 1-point on the road at the Warriors and suffered another 1-point loss at Portland in the second leg of a back-to-back on Monday. I just think the Raptors will be the much more motivated team and things aren't as bad as it might seem with their record. Give me Toronto -7! |
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01-13-21 | Grizzlies v. Wolves -2.5 | 118-107 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 5 m | Show | |
40* GRIZZLIES/TWOLVES NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Timberwolves -2.5) I'm going to take the Minnesota Timberwolves -2.5 at home against the Memphis Grizzlies. I just think this is a great spot to buy low on Minnesota, who is just 1-7 in their last 8 games. One of the big reasons that Minnesota has such a poor record is Karl-Anthony Towns has played just 3 games. They are 2-1 in the 3 games he's played, which includes a 116-111 win at Utah as a 9.5-point dog. The only loss being by a mere 3-points in OT against the Spurs. He did sit out the rematch against the Spurs the following night, which they won, but that was simply because they didn't want him playing both games of a back-to-back. He'll be back in action for this game and we should see a fresh Timberwolves team playing on a full 2 days of rest. A spot that has favored them, as they are 4-1 ATS last 5 times on 2 days of rest. As for the Grizzlies, they come in having won their last two, but one of those was a win over Brooklyn minus both Durant and Irving and the other was against an absolutely depleted Cavs team. With Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr and Justice Winslow all still sidelined, this is a team that is going to struggle to win games, especially on the road. Grizzlies are just 1-6 ATS last 7 as a road dog, 1-6 ATS last 7 vs a team with a losing record and 1-6 ATS last 7 off a SU win. Give me the Timberwolves -2.5! |
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01-13-21 | Lakers v. Thunder +8.5 | Top | 128-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
50* LAKERS/THUNDER NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Thunder +8.5) I really like the value and the spot for OKC as a big home dog against the Lakers tonight. The betting public can't get enough of the Lakers regardless of the price and they are certainly going to be on them here with the Lakers coming off back-to-back covers. Also these two teams were both in action last night. The Lakers got their second straight cover with a 117-110 win over Houston as a 5-point favorite. OKC on the other hand lost 102-112 as a 2.5-point home dog to the Spurs. Big thing on the second leg of a back-to-back is motivation and I don't think there's any question the Thunder will be motivated for their first crack this season at the defending champs and this game probably had something to do with their poor showing last night. Lakers don't care about beating teams like the Thunder and it wouldn't surprise me if they rested some guys in this one. Give me Oklahoma City +8.5! |
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01-12-21 | Pacers v. Warriors -3 | Top | 104-95 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
50* PACERS/WARRIORS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Warriors -3) I will gladly lay the 3-points at home with Golden State as they get ready to host the Pacers. The Warriors got off to a really slow start, but have got things rolling here of late. Golden State is 6-2 SU over their last 8 games and have covered 4 of their last 5. The biggest factor here is the scheduling spot for the Pacers. Indiana just opened up a 5-game west coast road trip last night at Sacramento. A game they lost 122-127. The big key here is the Pacers basically used a 6 man rotation in that game as all 5 starters played 30 or more minutes and McDermott also logged 30 of the bench. No other player played more than 15 minutes. I just don't see the Pacers haven't enough gas in the tank for this one. Give me the Warriors -3! |
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01-12-21 | Nuggets v. Nets +1 | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
40* NUGGETS/NETS NBA SHARP STAKE (Nets +1) I will gladly take Brooklyn at basically a pick'em on their home floor against the Nuggets tonight. The Nets will again be without Kyrie Irving, but they got back Durant in their last game and should have more than enough to take down Denver in this spot. The Nuggets are getting a lot of love from the books here as they have won 4 of their last 5 and are off a 114-89 thrashing of the Knicks on Sunday. Thing is it couldn't have been much easier for Denver in this 5-game stretch. They played the Timberwolves twice without Karl Anthony Towns, played the 76ers without several starters and the Knicks. The one good team they played in this stretch was the Mavs at home and they lost by 7 as a 2.5-point favorite. You also have to look at the spot here for the Nuggets. It's far from ideal, as Denver will be playing their 3rd straight on the road and this will be their 3rd game in the last 4 days. Nuggets are just 8-22 ATS last 30 off 2 straight wins and 7-20 ATS last 27 on the road off a win by 10 or more. Give me the Nets +1! |
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01-11-21 | Grizzlies +1 v. Cavs | 101-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
40* GRIZZLIES/CAVS NBA STEAMROLLER (Grizzlies +1) Most are going to run to back Cleveland here at basically a pick'em on their home floor against a Memphis team they just beat on the road last Thursday 94-90 as a 6-point dog. I like the Grizzlies in this spot. I just think Memphis will be the much more motivated team here with that short-term revenge. Not only could the Cavs struggle to get up for a team like the Grizzlies who they just beat on the road a few days ago, but this is historically flat spot for them. Cleveland just finished up a season-long 6-game road trip on Saturday. The jet lag from that trip will really be setting. Memphis on the other hand has had little to no travel of late with their last 4 games at home and they had 2 days off leading up to their trip to Cleveland. Give me the Grizzlies +1! |
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01-10-21 | Thunder v. Nets -9 | 129-116 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
40* THUNDER/NETS NBA ATS CASH COW (Nets -9) I will gladly lay the 9-points here with Brooklyn at home against the Thunder. We know for sure the Nets are going to have Durant for this game and I'm confident that Irving is going to suit up as well. These are going to be extremely fresh and this Brooklyn team needs to get back on track after losing 5 of their last 8. As for OKC, this feels like the perfect time to jump off the Thunder bandwagon. OKC has gone 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS over their last 4 games, but I just haven't been impressed. The Thunder did not shoot the ball well during this stretch. This is also their 5th straight road game in a 9 day stretch. The gas tank has to be on empty and I just think the Nets are going to put this team away early and really take the fight out of the Thunder. Give me Brooklyn -9! |
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01-09-21 | Suns v. Pacers -3 | 125-117 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
40* SUNS/PACERS NBA SHARP STAKE (Pacers -3) I just can't pass up a play here on the Pacers as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Suns on Saturday. The books continue to undervalue this Indiana team and those that have been on the Pacers' bandwagon have profited nicely, as they enter this game 6-2 ATS. The biggest factor here is rest. The Pacers are going to be fresh having played their last game at home on Wednesday. So they have had no travel and 2 days off to get ready for this game. Phoenix on the other hand is playing in the second leg of a back-to-back road set after last night's game at Detroit. The spot gets even worse, as their game against the Pistons went to OT. I just don't see the Suns having enough in the tank to pull off the upset here. Give me the Pacers -3! |
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01-09-21 | Heat -5.5 v. Wizards | 128-124 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
40* HEAT/WIZARDS NBA ATS MASSACRE (Heat -5.5) I'm expecting a big time effort out of the Heat and an easy cover on the road against the Wizards Saturday. Jimmy Butler called out his team after their most recent loss to the Celtics and if that doesn't light a fire under this team, I don't know what will. One thing is for sure, Butler is going to show up and I look for him to come out looking to make a statement against Washington's Bradley Beal who is coming off two monster games (60 points on Wednesday and 41 last night) and leads the league in scoring at 34.3 ppg. Rest should definitely give Miami the upper-hand in this game. The Heat will be playing on 2 days rest, while the Wizards are playing in the second leg of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in the last 4 days. Give me Miami -5.5! |
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01-08-21 | Bulls +10 v. Lakers | 115-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
40* BULLS/LAKERS NBA LATE NIGHT ANNIHILATOR (Bulls +10) We will gladly take the double-digits with the Bulls against the Lakers on Friday. Chicago has been an absolute covering machine of late. The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games. They have won 4 of those 7 games outright as a dog, including 3 where they were a dog of 6 or more. Not only are we getting the Bulls playing some of their best basketball, but this is a really tough spot for the Lakers. LA will be playing on no rest and their 5th game in the last 8 days. For a team that had almost no offseason, they have to be running on fumes. I know they haven't really rested LeBron or AD a lot in these back-to-backs but I wouldn't be shocked if they did it here. LeBron hasn't missed a game yet and AD has only missed one. This would be the ideal spot against a lessor opponent and a day off tomorrow before they go back on the road for 3 more games Sunday-Wednesday. Give me the Bulls +10! |
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01-08-21 | Hornets v. Pelicans -6.5 | Top | 118-110 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
50* HORNETS/PELICANS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Pelicans -6.5) I think this is the ideal spot to back New Orleans as a relatively small home favorite against a bad Charlotte team. We are getting value here because of the fact that the Pelicans have lost and failed to cover each of their last 2 games, plus the fact that the Hornets come in off a huge 102-94 upset win over the Hawks as a 6-point dog on Wednesday. Thing with Charlotte's win over Atlanta was that was more of the Hawks playing awful than anything. Hornets only shot 38% from the field in that win and have now gone 4 straight games where they have shot worse than 42% from the field. That's not going to cut it on the road against a team like New Orleans. In those previous 3 awful shooting performances they lost by at least 15 in all 3 games. Give me the Pelicans -6.5! |
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01-07-21 | 76ers v. Nets +2 | 109-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
40* 76ERS/NETS NBA SHARP STAKE (Nets +2) *Analysis Coming* |
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01-06-21 | Bulls v. Kings -7 | 124-128 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
40* BULLS/KINGS NBA LATE NIGHT BAILOUT (Kings -7) The Bulls +10 was my 50* Top Play for Tuesday and they didn't disappoint winning outright at Portland. Now it's time to fade Chicago. The Bulls will be playing in the second game of a back-to-back on the road on the west coast. The jet lag is going to be creeping in and for a team that isn't very good defensively they need those legs to keep games close. Another big factor here is they are running into what should be an extremely motivated Kings team. Sacramento has lost 3 straight and were absolutely embarrassed in their last game at Golden State (lost 106-137). I think all signs here point to a blowout in favor of the home team. Give me the Kings -7! |
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01-06-21 | Celtics v. Heat -2.5 | Top | 107-105 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
50* CELTICS/HEAT NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Heat -2.5) I think we are getting a gift here with Miami as a mere 2.5-point home favorite against the Celtics. Boston was able to beat the Raptors with a depleted roster in their last game and I think it has them overvalued in a really tough spot. Celtics are playing their 4th straight road game and this will be their 3rd game in the last 4 days and 4th in the last 6 days. Miami's been up and down to start the season, which was to be expected after their deep run to the NBA Finals and short offseason. They absolutely dominated OKC in their last game 118-90 and there's no doubt in my mind we get a max effort here against a team like Boston, especially with the game being televised on ESPN. This is also just the 2nd game in the last 5 days for Miami, so they are going to be the much fresher team here. Give me the Heat -2.5! |
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01-05-21 | Bulls +10 v. Blazers | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 24 h 32 m | Show |
50* BULLS/BLAZERS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Bulls +10) I will gladly grab double-digits with Chicago in Tuesday's road game against the Blazers. The Bulls got off to an ugly start with a 20 point loss to the Hawks at home followed by a 19-point home loss to the Pacers. Outside of an ugly showing at Milwaukee on New Year's Day they have really played well of late, winning 3 of their last 4 outright. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. Billy Donovan was a very underrated hire for this team and it was to be expected that this team was going to be more competitive. The Blazers are just 3-4 with only one of those 3 wins coming by double-digits. Portland has really struggled shooting the ball. They come in having shot a mere 43.5% from the field in their first 7 games and are riding a 3-game streak of shooting 43.5% or worse. They are also giving up 119 ppg and have allowed 4 of their last 5 opponents to shoot 47% or better. Another thing to note here with Portland is the scheduling spot. Blazers just finished up a 4-game road trip and are on just 1 day of rest. I really think we could see a flat Blazers team struggle to pull away. Give me the Bulls +10! |
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01-04-21 | Mavs v. Rockets -3 | 113-100 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
40* MAVS/ROCKETS NBA NO-BRAINER (Rockets -3) I'll gladly lay the short number at home with the Rockets. Houston has won 2 straight after dropping their first two. The thing you have to remember is they were decimated in those first two games with a bunch of guys out because of Covid. They have recently got back John Wall, Eric Gordon and DeMarcus Cousins. Ben McLemore and Kenyon Martin Jr. will be added to the mix for this game and James Harden is expected back after he sat out their last game with an ankle injury. Dallas is in the second game of a back-to-back. They were without their Luka Doncic in last night's 108-118 loss to Chicago. Donic is listed as questionable, but I wouldn't be shocked if they rested them in this one with two days off after this matchup. Dallas is also still without Porzingis and are just 2-4 SU and 2-4 ATS to start the season. I know there's a lot of talk with Harden getting traded, but I also think it's what is giving us value with Houston right now. This is a very good team with the roster as is. Give me the Rockets -3! |
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01-04-21 | Cavs v. Magic -5 | Top | 83-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
50* CAVS/MAGIC NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Magic -5) I will gladly lay the 5-points with Orlando at home against the Cavs. This is a great spot to jump on the Magic, who have lost their last two after an impressive 4-0 start to the season. Poor shooting is to blame for both recent losses, as they shot just 35% from the field in a 24-point loss to the 76ers on New Year's Eve and 37% in Saturday's 9-point setback to the Thunder. This is a team that averaged a solid 120.3 ppg in their 4-0 start and shot 48% or better from the field in 3 of those games. I'm confident Orlando gets back their stroke in this one. As for the Cavs, they have surprised some people by starting out 4-2. Two of those wins have come against bad teams in the Hornets and Pistons. They did beat the 76ers, but Philly was playing on no rest and rested Embiid. Their most recent win over the Hawks was also misleading, as Atlanta was on no rest after laying it all on the line in their previous two games against the Nets. Give me the Magic -5! |
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01-03-21 | Nuggets -8.5 v. Wolves | 124-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
40* NUGGETS/WOLVES NBA SHARP STAKE (Nuggets -8.5) I got no problem laying the big number here with Denver on the road against the Timberwolves. This feels like the ultimate buy low spot for the Nuggets, who at 1-4 have been one of the biggest disappointments early on in the NBA season. Given their slow start, we can bank on a max effort here from Denver as they have to feel like this is a must win. Minnesota wasn't going to sniff the playoffs with the roster they brought into the season and are playing right now without their best player in Karl-Anthony Towns. In their last game without Towns they got absolutely destroyed by the Wizards 130-109 and Washington was without Russell Westbrook and hadn't won a game coming into that matchup. If we get the kind of effort I'm expecting from the Nuggets, they should win here by double-digits without much problem. Give me Denver -8.5! |