*3 Star Play Under* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish haven't had any downfield passing game. Riley Leonard's average depth of target the last three games is barely above 5 yards. Notre Dame is relying on a strong offensive line and a good running game to get them enough points. With Love being less than 100%, I think Leonard will be leaned on even more in the running game. This makes long slow drives from Notre Dame even more likely. Notre Dame is bottom 25 in the country in tempo. 

Penn State is 81st in the country in tempo, so they don't play very fast either. Notre Dame is second in the country in explosiveness allowed. The Fighting Irish have what is probably the best secondary in the country. They are first in passing play success rate allowed and first in QBR allowed. Penn State is only 108th in explosiveness, so I think they'll find big plays hard to come by. 

Notre Dame was just in a hard fought low scoring game against Georgia. I think this one plays out similarly. 

Penn State is first in defensive line yards this year. Notre Dame should find it tough to run consistently on Penn State. Notre Dame hasn't shown the ability to throw it deep. 

Both teams are great defensively in the red zone. The long drives leading to field goals help an under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish defense has been excellent all year. It certainly is a negative to be without Mills on the defensive line, but Notre Dame as a unit is still very strong on defense. The secondary is the best in the country. They are 2nd best in the country in explosiveness allowed. I think it will be tough for Georgia to break big plays here.

Georgia will start backup quarterback Gunner Stockton. He is a highly recruited guy, but he is untested in the passing game. The Notre Dame secondary is an extremely difficult matchup for them. The Georgia wide receivers aren't as good as normal, and drops have been a major problem. 

The Bulldogs ground attack has been subpar all season. Georgia is 84th in offensive line yards this year. They are just 79th in ypc. They will likely run it more in this game. Georgia is just 72nd in offensive explosiveness. 

Notre Dame will likely run the ball a bunch with Riley Leonard and Love in this game. I expect them to have some success, but I think they will have long slow drives. Notre Dame is 107th in the country in tempo. I think Kirby Smart and company will have a good defensive game plan ready for this one.

I expect a tight and low scoring contest here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Memphis Tigers offense has been playing their very best at the end of the season. In the last six games, Memphis has averaged a little more than 39 points per game. 

Memphis has a history of showing up with some great offense in bowl games under Ryan Silverfield as well. Memphis put up 36 points against a good Iowa State defense last year. They scored 38 on Utah State a couple years ago. Memphis also had that 53-39 loss to Penn State in the Cotton Bowl under Silverfield. 

Seth Hennigan is a good veteran quarterback and he's up against a West Virginia defense that is 124th in QBR allowed. Now, West Virginia is without two corners who are in the transfer portal. West Virginia is also without star linebacker Josiah Trotter. The Mountaineers defense has allowed 36.17 points per game in their last six games. Now, they are missing some of their very best defenders.

West Virginia has most of their key guys on offense playing here. The Mountaineers are 10th in the nation in offensive explosiveness, and Memphis gives up a bunch of big plays. The Tigers are 123rd in explosiveness allowed. Memphis played a very weak schedule of opposing offenses,  but they allowed 44 against UTSA and 56 against Navy. Even in their win against Tulane, they allowed 7.3 YPP.

These two teams are 123rd and 124th in explosiveness allowed, and I think we'll see quick touchdown drives both ways. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Jacksonville State Gamecocks offense started the year off in disappointing fashion. They underachieved for a bit before they settled on Tyler Huff as the starting quarterback. Huff's dual threat ability really helped this team go to the next level throughout the season.

Huff was injured last week against Western Kentucky. He has a leg/ankle injury and is questionable for this game. If Huff does play he should be less than 100%. He has less than a week to recover before this Friday night contest.

Western Kentucky doesn't have much of a running game. That should put a lot of pressure on Veltkamp to be great here. I think the Jacksonville State pass rush can get to Veltkamp some in this game. 

These two defenses both do a really good job of preventing plays. They are both top 30 in the country in explosiveness allowed. Both defenses have done a great job bending but not breaking and being strong in the red zone.

This total is set pretty high for question marks surrounding the most important player on the Gamecocks offense. Western Kentucky has been inconsistent offensively this year as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Charlotte 49ers gained 8.2 yards per play and put up 39 points on Florida Atlantic last week. Charlotte has a new coach, and they were more aggressive offensively in that game. 

UAB scored 40 points in a 40-14 win over Rice last week. UAB is 32nd in the nation in tempo. The Blazers have had a lot of points in most of their games by one team or the other. In fact, every UAB game this year has had one team with at least 31 points. In six of their last eight games, one of the teams involved has hit at least 40 points.

UAB has actually hit some more big plays with Kitna at quarterback. The Charlotte defense has allowed 33 plays of 30 or more yards this year.

Charlotte is first in the nation in explosiveness on offense. They are likely to hit a few big gainers here. They have 58 plays of 20 yards or more on the season. 

Both offenses have been bothered by strong defensive lines that cause havoc in the backfield. Both of these defenses rank in the bottom 15 in the country in havoc created, so the quarterbacks should have time.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams are 121st and 122nd in pace of play. There shouldn't be very many possessions in this game. 

Miami is first in the MAC in yards per play allowed. Salopek is the leader of a really good Miami Redhawks defense. 

Bowling Green is likely to load up the box and try to make Gabbert and Miami's offense to beat them through the air. Miami's wide receivers have loads of drops this year, and Gabbert has struggled for much of the season.

These two teams are 63rd and 66th in the country in explosiveness on offense. I don't think there will be many big plays.

Fannin Jr. is banged up and is questionable here. He will likely play for Bowling Green, but him at less than 100% certainly slows this offense.

The wind here is forecast to be 18 mph sustained with gusts to 25 mph. This is a stadium where the wind tunnels and it should change the game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma defense has been superb this year. They are 13th in success rate allowed. They are first in the SEC in yards per carry allowed and 2nd in the SEC in yards per play allowed. The Oklahoma team this year has disappointed, but it definitely hasn't been the fault of the defense.

Alabama is bottom 30 in the country in offensive line yards. The Crimson Tide offensive line has really struggled in run blocking this year. Jalen Milroe is excellent and he has made some things happen even with that poor offensive line play. In general though, Alabama has been better in the passing game.

Oklahoma will be up against an underrated Alabama defense. They are 14th in success rate allowed on defense. Oklahoma is averaging a miserable 2.49 yards per carry on offense. I don't think they'll be able to run the ball here.

The weather could play a major role here. There are expected to be sustained winds of 17 mph and gusts to 30 mph during this game. In general that leads to more running and I think both run defenses have the advantage.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders have a good quarterback in Vattiato. The problem this year has been the offensive line is really bad in pass blocking and he hasn't had enough time to throw. When he has time to throw, he is a solid quarterback. New Mexico State ranks 119th in pass rushing grade at PFF and they have just 13 sacks all season. I think the MTSU passing game is going to look better in this game.

New Mexico State does have a good rushing attack. They are 38th in offensive line yards and 43rd in rushing play success rate. MTSU is 122nd in rushing play success rate allowed. Liberty just ran for more than 330 yards on them. LA Tech rolled up 551 yards of offense against MTSU. The Blue Raiders defense is a bottom ten unit in the country.

There are two bottom 15 defenses in the country in this contest. These offenses have been inconsistent, but I think the defenses are bad enough that the offenses can get it going some here. Also, this game means little to the teams with no chances of a bowl berth. That lends itself to higher scoring games on the whole.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers and Michigan State Spartans meet on Friday night in East Lansing. Purdue is having a very forgettable season. Michigan State has been inconsistent, but they have shown promising signs under Coach Smith.

Both of these teams play at a very slow tempo. Purdue is 108th in tempo out of 134 teams despite being far behind in most of their games. The Boilermakers have slowed their tempo down even more in Big Ten play. 

Michigan State is 120th in the country in tempo. The Spartans offensive line has struggled this season. They are 114th in offensive line yards and 117th in yards per carry. Michigan State is 121st in offensive explosiveness, so they haven't gotten many big plays.

Purdue has a decent running game, but the strength of the Michigan State defense is their ability to slow down the run. They are 24th in defensive line yards and 30th in rushing play success rate allowed. 

The weather here calls for sustained winds in the 16-17 mph range with gusts in the low 20's. There is also a chance for a passing shower.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Toledo Rockets host the Ohio Bobcats on Wednesday night in Toledo. 

Ohio has the second ranked defense in the MAC. The Bobcats are giving up just 3.06 yards per carry in MAC play. Ohio is 20th in rushing play success rate allowed on defense. The Bobcats defense has been in great form of late. They have allowed a total of 26 points in their last three games combined.

Toledo is 37th nationally in rushing play success rate allowed. They are good at getting teams behind the chains with their aggressive front seven. Ohio is just 103rd in offensive explosiveness. The Bobcats are reliant on slowly moving the ball down the field. Ohio is 108th out of 134 teams in the country in tempo.

The two offensive lines here are subpar, and I think the defensive fronts can do a good job slowing down the run game. 

The weather here calls for 20 mph winds with gusts pushing 30 mph with rain showers expected. This kind of weather definitely changes the game and should make the teams more conservative on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas offense has come on in a big way the last few games. Kansas is now first in the Big 12 in yards per play because of their great showings the last few weeks. Kansas put up 8.6 yards per play and 42 points on a good Houston defense. They just torched a good Iowa State team for 536 yards and 45 points. Jalon Daniels is taking shots down the field, and the Jayhawks offensive line is dominating in the trenches. 

BYU is just 88th in yards per carry allowed. They are 82nd in rushing play success rate allowed. I think Kansas can have a big day on the ground here. 

The Kansas defense is still a major weakness. Kansas is 116th in defensive line yards. BYU has improved running the football and will do damage here. Retzlaff is good for a couple big plays through the air too. Kansas is 9th in the Big 12 in yards per play allowed.

I expect a tight back and forth contest here. There is even a possibility of overtime with a spread this close and BYU's propensity for playing close games.

The two offenses are both better than the defenses here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs have played eight games against FBS opponents this season. Five of those eight games have finished with 45 combined points or fewer. Most of their lowest scoring games have been against the best teams they have played (Ole Miss, Texas, Clemson) with only the Alabama game being high scoring. 

Georgia's rushing attack has been very weak this year. Tennessee's front seven on defense is arguably the best in the country. The Bulldogs are going to have to throw the ball. I don't trust Carson Beck to do a good job moving it down the field with a lot of pressure in his face.

The Tennessee offense is only averaging 24.5 points per game in the SEC. They are 10th in yards per play in the SEC. The Volunteers have played six straight games that have stayed under this total! 

Nico Iamaleava is banged up and is questionable to play in this one. Even if he plays he'll likely be less than 100 percent. The passing game hasn't been working, and I think Kirby Smart will scheme up his defense to stop the run here and try to make Tennessee throw the football.

I like the defenses to have the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd have impressed on the offensive line. They are 23rd in offensive line yards this year. Marshall is 11th in the nation in yards per carry. That should be a problem for Coastal Carolina. Coastal Carolina is 120th in defensive line yards. They are 114th in rushing play success rate allowed. 

Coastal Carolina's offense has been pretty good this season. The Chanticleers are 51st in the country in yards per play. They are 20th in offensive explosiveness, and Marshall has given up a decent amount of big plays this year. 

Marshall has played some of the lower scoring and slower paced teams in the Sun Belt. Marshall has recent wins over UL Monroe and Southern Miss for example. Marshall did get in a high scoring shootout against App State earlier in the year.

Both of these teams play at a pace that is a little faster than average. I think this total is a few points too low. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Illinois Huskies have played eight games against FBS opponents so far this year. Five of those eight games have finished with a combined total of 43 points or fewer. 

Northern Illinois is coming off a high scoring game against Western Michigan, and I think that has given us a little extra value to the under in this game. Western Michigan has forced all of these MAC games to be high scoring. Northern Illinois now plays Akron, who has played in some low scoring games and some high scoring games.

The weather here should matter too. The forecast calls for steady rain and winds of 12 mph with gusts to 17 mph. That should make the coaching staffs a bit more conservative. That tends to lead to tighter games that stay under the number.

Akron is a respectable 54th in defensive line yards. N. Illinois isn't very good in the passing game, and the Huskies are 113th in explosiveness on offense. N. Illinois is 12th in the MAC in yards per play.

Akron is 116th in offensive line yards and should struggle to run the ball much here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Western Michigan Broncos have played five games in the MAC thus far. The total number of points scored in their five games in the MAC thus far: 87, 58, 89, 73, and 70 points. All five games have gone over this posted total. All but one of their games in the conference have hit at least 70 points. The fact that Western Michigan got into a shootout with a Northern Illinois team I consider a solid under team speaks volumes as to what they do to games.

Western Michigan is first in the MAC in yards per play at 7.01 yards per play. Bowling Green is 115th in defensive line yards. The Falcons have struggled to stop the run against the best rushing teams they have faced. 

Bowling Green had a low scoring game last week which has depressed this total some. That game was played in heavy winds against Central Michigan who was starting their third string quarterback in that game. Bowling Green has a lot of talent on offense. The Western Michigan defense is 124th in success rate allowed. Bowling Green has several key matchup advantages in this one.

Take the over. 

*Note- this one has moved a bit since I selected it, but I would still bet this for the same rating at 59 or lower. Thank you*

*3 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Volunteers offense has struggled against good defenses, but against the worst defenses they have played this year Tennessee has run up the score in a big way. Mississippi State is one of the very worst defenses in the country. Mississippi State is 129th out of 134 teams in the country in success rate allowed on defense. The Bulldogs are giving up a ridiculous 8.03 yards per play in SEC action. They allowed 41 points against Toledo. They allowed 58 points against Arkansas. They gave up 45 points to Florida. Tennessee should do a lot of damage here.

The Mississippi State offense has been better of late. Van Buren is doing a solid job at quarterback. The Bulldogs put up 31 points against Georgia recently. They also scored 24 on a good Texas A&M defense. While the Tennessee defense is very solid, I think the Volunteers letting up with a lead late could help Mississippi State put up quite a few points in the second half here.

These two teams both rank in the top eight in the country in tempo. There will be a lot of possessions in this game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The NC State Wolfpack offense is playing much better in recent weeks. Bailey has really started to play some good football at quarterback after he has gotten some more experience. NC State crushed Stanford by putting up 59 points on them last week. NC State averaged 8.5 yards per play in that contest. 

Duke put up 31 points in their loss to Miami last week. The NC State offense has improved, but this NC State defense has been very weak this year. The Wolfpack are 12th in ACC play in yards per play allowed. They have been especially bad against the run.

NC State had several very low scores right after Grayson McCall was injured. They had to get things together as an offense. They also played some teams who play very slowly and are under teams. Duke is top 25 in tempo. I think those low scores from earlier in the year are giving us value on the over here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The East Carolina Pirates are first in the nation in tempo. East Carolina is pushing the pace to the extreme. Katin Houser is a clear upgrade from Jake Garcia, and the offense has finally found its way of late. East Carolina has been piling up the points and giving up the points in bunches of late. Their last three games have finished at 79, 73, and 90 total points. 

Florida Atlantic's defense has fallen apart. They just gave up 44 points to USF who was without star quarterback Byrum Brown in that game. Florida Atlantic is playing at a faster than average pace, and they have been throwing the ball at a higher rate of late. Five games in a row against FBS opponents have finished at 58 combined points or more for Florida Atlantic. 

Both teams rank in the top 25 in explosiveness on offense. Both teams rank in the bottom 40 in explosiveness allowed. The fast pace and big plays make me like the over here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Iowa Hawkeyes are definitely better on offense this year than they have been the last couple seasons. I know McNamara is out for this game, but I think Brendan Sullivan is better than McNamara. The market has hit this total downward with McNamara out, but I consider it a plus that Sullivan is starting at quarterback here. Sullivan gives them some ability to run at the quarterback position as well.

Wisconsin's offense is 4th in the Big Ten in yards per play at 6.21. The Badgers struggled against Penn State, but the Penn State defense is better than Iowa's defense this year. Iowa is just sixth in the Big Ten in yards per play allowed. The Hawkeyes defense isn't bad by any means, they just aren't nearly as dominant as they were before.

Wisconsin is 86th in YPC allowed. Iowa is 12th in YPC. The Hawkeyes should get quite a bit of work done on the ground here.

I think this total is set like Iowa's totals were last year, and this Iowa team is definitely different than last year's team.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arkansas Razorbacks offense looked amazing against the Mississippi State Bulldogs horrible defense yesterday. Now, they go up against an Ole Miss defense that is first in the nation in success rate allowed.

Ole Miss is easily first in the nation in tackles for a loss, and the Arkansas offensive line is 92nd in havoc allowed. Ole Miss should be in the backfield a bunch in this one. Arkansas wants to run the ball a lot, but Ole Miss is first in the nation in yards per carry allowed and first in the nation in defensive line yards.

The Ole Miss offense hasn't topped 27 points in their last four games. The Rebels are inconsistent on offense. They are just sixth in the SEC in yards per play on offense.

I think this number is too high. The oddsmakers aren't giving the Ole Miss defense enough credit.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The NC State Wolfpack offense has been playing much better of late. Bailey is throwing the football well. NC State is up to 26th in the nation in passing play success rate on offense. NC State isn't a great offense, but they have been decent in recent weeks and I think the market is underrating them.

Ashton Daniels missed quite a bit of time, and the Stanford offense was much worse when he was out. He was back last week and is expected to play here. Daniels does the turn the ball over quite a bit, but he allows the offense to have some dual threat ability. Stanford has excellent wide receivers who will be a mismatch for the NC State secondary.

These are two bad defenses. NC State is 92nd in the nation in yards per play. They are 103rd in success rate allowed. NC State is 102nd in pass play success rate allowed.

Stanford is terrible against the pass. The Cardinal are 124th in QBR allowed. They are 115th in yards per play allowed. 

This total is set too low for a game with two poor defenses.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The BYU Cougars have a good secondary, but they are weak against the run. UCF is 2nd in the country in rushing play success rate. The Knights are 5th in offensive line yards. BYU is 77th in rushing play success rate allowed. They are 82nd in defensive line yards. UCF just ran for 354 yards and averaged 7.1 yards per play against a good Iowa State defense. I think UCF can have a big game on offense here too.

BYU is 42nd in the nation in yards per play on offense. The Cougars are 44th in QBR on offense. They have multiple good receivers, and the weakness of the UCF defense is definitely their secondary. I think Retzlaff and the BYU wide receivers can take advantage of that weakness. UCF is 99th in explosiveness allowed on defense. 

Both of these defenses have faced quite a few weak offenses. I believe both defenses are overrated right now. 

UCF pushes the pace and Brown looks like a good fit at quarterback. BYU has scored 34 points or more in all but one of their games so far this season.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* You could make a good argument that this is a matchup of 2 of the bottom 5 defenses in the country. Kent State is either the worst defense in the country or they are second or third worst. Kent State is allowing 6.94 yards per play on the season. Kent is especially bad against the pass. Their opponent QBR allowed is 132nd in the nation. 

Western Michigan is giving up 7.32 yards per play in MAC play. The Broncos defense has been even worse than Kent in conference play alone. Western Michigan has allowed 19 plays of 20 yards or more in three games in MAC play. 

Western Michigan's offense is one of the best in the MAC. They have great balance. Western Michigan is PFF's 6th ranked offense in the country. I think they'll hit plenty of big plays against this Kent State defense. 

Kent State has been weak on offense for the year overall, but in MAC play they are 4th in yards per play on offense.

Three of Western Michigan's last five games have finished with a combined total of 87 points or more. Kent State has seen two of its last three games finish at 72 points or more.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers defense isn't good, but I think it is a little better than it looks on paper now. The Mountaineers were absolutely crushed by Clemson and that skewed their stats some. Marshall scored 52 points on them with less than 400 yards of total offense because of turnovers and short fields. Appalachian State looked better on defense against Louisiana last game. They have too much talent to be terrible on defense all year. 

Georgia State's offense has been slumping of late. Georgia State has scored only 20, 14, and 21 points in losses to Marshall, ODU, and Georgia Southern in their last three games. The Georgia State offense is just 92nd in offensive explosiveness. 

Appalachian State is reliant on explosive plays on offense, and their running game has been way down this year.

These two teams are just slightly faster than average in tempo in a neutral game state. This is a very high posted total for two offenses who are mediocre. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both of these teams get behind the sticks too much. Kentucky 128th in tackles for loss allowed and Florida 71st in the country. Neither offense is consistently good enough to dig out of these holes.

I'm encouraged by what I’ve seen from this Florida defense the last couple games. 4.4 YPP allowed to UCF- I know UCF has issues but still impressive for the Gators defense. Just 4.5 YPP allowed to Tenn on the road. Fla doing a good job not giving up big plays.

Florida is 73rd in tempo and 117th for Kentucky in pace so there shouldnt' be many possessions.. Kentucky running the ball on 63% of their offensive snaps. Kentucky run game is successful without being explosive which can lend itself to unders especially since they aren’t good in the red zone. Long possessions ending in field goals are a big positive.

The fact is we have two teams who rank in the bottom 20 in the country in explosiveness. We have two defenses who are excellent at preventing big plays. I think this will be a tight low scoring game.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas Longhorns had one weakness coming into the season. That weakness is their secondary. The team overall is fantastic, but the secondary was beaten by good passing attacks last year and that was the big question coming into this year. What good quarterback/passing game has Texas played so far this year? Their opponents have been Colorado State, Michigan, UTSA, Miss State, and Oklahoma. There isn't a single decent passing attack on that schedule thus far. 

Georgia's Carson Beck is capable of big things. Beck has been a bit inconsistent this year, but a lot of that has been due to drops. Georgia still is light years better in the passing game than anyone else Texas has played. I think the Bulldogs can move it through the air in this one.

On the other side, Texas is taking advantage of their scoring opportunities this year. They have 26 touchdowns on 33 trips into the red zone. Texas has amazing weapons on offense. The Georgia defense is just 56th in yards per play allowed. This Georgia defense gave up 31 points to Mississippi State last week. They also were torched by Alabama. I think the Longhorns can put up plenty here.

Both teams like to throw the football, and I see both teams scoring plenty in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Illinois Huskies have been very good at forcing their style of play onto the opposition. Northern Illinois wants to run the football and decrease the amount of possessions in the game. Northern Illinois runs the ball on 65% of their plays on offense. They are just 102nd in explosiveness on offense, but they are a decent 62nd in YPC on the season. Their drives take a lot of time off the clock.

Northern Illinois is 12th in the nation in yards per play allowed this year. The Huskies defense has been elite! Northern Illinois held Notre Dame to 14 points. They gave up just 184 yards to Buffalo in an overtime game. They allowed only 171 yards to NC State. They gave up 210 yards and 7 points against Bowling Green.

Toledo's offense has been inconsistent, but their defense has been excellent. The Rockets are 22nd in yards per carry allowed. They are 21st in rushing play success rate allowed. They should at least be able to slow down the Huskies rushing attack. On offense, Toledo is 103rd in offensive line yards. They are just 89th in yards per play on offense. 

Both of the defensive fronts are in the top 25 in the country in havoc created. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Navy Midshipmen offense is completely different this year under a new offensive coordinator. Drew Cronic is the new offensive coordinator who came over from Mercer. Cronic has helped this team become far more dynamic and explosive on offense. 

Navy is third in the nation in yards per play this season. The Midshipmen are 25th in offensive explosiveness. The offensive line play has been elite. They are first in the nation in havoc allowed. Horvath has been fantastic at quarterback. Navy has scored 41 points or more in three of their five games. They have scored 34 points or more in all of their games.

Charlotte found a new quarterback, and the 49ers offense looks much better of late. Charlotte rolled up 517 yards and 55 points on E Carolina in their last game. The 49ers defense is really weak though. They are 123rd in the nation in yards per play allowed. They are also 123rd in explosiveness allowed. 

I think Navy scores a lot here and Charlotte scores enough as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Auburn Tigers take on the Missouri Tigers on Saturday afternoon in Columbia.

Auburn has been terrible at finishing drives this year. Auburn is a run heavy team, but Missouri is 11th in the nation in rushing play success rate allowed. Auburn's Payton Thorne isn't a trustworthy passer. Auburn has slowed their pace down a lot in SEC games too.

Missouri is 97th in the nation with just 23 plays of 20 yards or more all season. Missouri's lack of explosiveness on offense has been stunning. Brady Cook has played poorly compared to last season, and they definitely miss Schrader in the backfield. 

While the Auburn offense has disappointed much of the season, the Auburn defense has been good. Auburn is 32nd in yards per play allowed, and they have played their best defensively of late. Auburn held Arkansas to 4.0 yards per play and Georgia to just 5.8 yards per play.

I don't think we'll see many big plays here, and I like the defenses to have the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both of these teams have been in some very high scoring games this year. Washington State went to overtime at 46-46 against San Jose State. They lost 45-24 to Boise State. They also beat Portland State 70-30. 

Fresno State just lost 59-14 to UNLV. The Bulldogs beat Sacramento State 46-30. They gave up 485 yards of offense to New Mexico as well in a game that probably should have been higher scoring than it was. 

Washington State is 2nd in the country in explosiveness on offense. They have a great offensive coordinator in Arbuckle. They play at the 18th quickest tempo in the country. 

Fresno State plays at a quicker than average pace as well. They have been pretty good through the air this season. Washington State's safeties are a weakness. Defensively, Washington State is 117th in explosiveness allowed.

The weather here looks good and I like this to be a high scoring game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Old Dominion isn't very good, but they sure do play extremely fast. They are the second fastest paced team in the country this year. Old Dominion had a low scoring game against S Carolina early, but of late they have had higher scores. Colton Joseph has come in and played well at quarterback in relief of Grant Wilson. 

The Monarchs lost 45-37 at Coastal Carolina last week. Old Dominion had their best offensive game of the season thus far in that game. Old Dominion also put up 30 points in a win at Bowling Green two games ago.

Georgia State is playing faster than I expected this year. They are 42nd out of 134 teams in tempo. Georgia State is airing it out too. Old Dominion has a bottom 20 pass rush and a bottom ten tackling grade in the country. They have both starting safeties banged up- those guys missed the second half of last week and are questionable here. The Panthers should move the ball through the air.

Both defenses are far worse than average in explosiveness allowed. A lot of possessions here and some explosive plays. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* This isn't really a game I expected to bet on, but the line is just showing too much value for me to pass it up.

Rutgers gave up more than 500 yards to Washington and was fortunate to allow only 18 points in that game. The Scarlet Knights then gave up only 14 to Nebraska, but that game was played in a windstorm that absolutely limited the points in that contest. 

Rutgers has been poor against the run this year. The Scarlet Knights are 116th in rushing play success rate allowed. They are 113th in defensive line yards allowed. I think Wisconsin with their 31st rushing play success rate on offense can have success here.

The Wisconsin defense has gotten much worse. They are 71st in yards per play allowed. They are 95th in defensive line yards, and the Rutgers ground attack should get going here.

Rutgers has gotten decent quarterback play from Kaliakmanis which is an upgrade from their QB play the last couple years.

The weather here looks good. 

I think the recent low scoring games for Rutgers has made this total too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Ball State Cardinals defense is next level bad. Ball State is allowing 8.22 yards per play on the season. They have given up at least 34 points in every game so far this year. That includes allowing 34 against SE Missouri State and 37 against a poor Central Michigan offense. 

The Ball State offense has come to life of late. They played some good defenses earlier in the year, but Ball State put up 6.0 yards per play and 42 points on Western Michigan last week. I think their passing attack can have success here.

Kent State's defense is awful too. They are 131st in the nation (134 teams) in yards per play allowed, QBR allowed, and YPC allowed. The Kent State offense has been weak overall, but they showed signs of life last game in scoring 33 points against Eastern Michigan. Now, they face the worst defense they have played all season.

These are two really bad teams, but I think the two defenses are so bad that there will be quite a bit of scoring here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers defense has been very weak so far this year. They are 95th in success rate allowed. They rank 129th in tackling grade at PFF. The Chanticleers have faced Virginia and Old Dominion in their last two games. Virginia rolled up 525 yards and 43 points. A bad Old Dominion offense put up 462 yards and 37 points on the Chanticleers. 

James Madison has been excellent on offense this year. The Dukes are coming off a rare poor offensive performance against an upstart UL Monroe team. I think James Madison can get it back going again in this matchup. The Dukes are 30th in yards per play this year. They are 22nd in the country in explosiveness on offense. Alonza Barnett is a great dual threat at quarterback and I expect him to have a big game here.

Coastal Carolina has a good offensive scheme. The Chanticleers put up 45 points on a pretty good Old Dominion defense this past weekend. They had 6.7 yards per play against Virginia in the previous game as well. 

James Madison really hasn't faced many good offenses. They played Charlotte with half the 49ers team injured. They played Gardner Webb. They played Ball State. Even with this weak schedule of opponents, the Dukes rank 98th in tackling grade this year.

James Madison plays at a pretty quick pace and I like both offenses to have success here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas Tech Red Raiders are an over team. Texas Tech is playing at a top 15 tempo in the country. They are also throwing it on 55% of their offensive plays. Behren Morton is more than capable of throwing a pick six with some of the dangerous throws he makes, but he will also impress with some great ones. Tahj Brooks is one of the most underrated running backs in the country. 

Arizona's Noah Fifita is an excellent quarterback. He makes good decisions and has a 90.0 PFF passer rating so far this year, which is excellent. He has one of the best wide receivers in the country in McMillan, and no one in the Texas Tech secondary has much of a chance of even slowing him down.

These two teams are 15th (Tech) and 4th (Arizona) in explosiveness in the country. There should be a lot of big plays from both offenses. Texas Tech is 115th in explosiveness allowed on defense and Arizona is 49th.

Three of Texas Tech's five games this year have gotten to at least 85 points total. I think this one will be another high scoring affair.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Ball State Cardinals defense is next level terrible. Ball State is 133rd in the country in yards per play allowed this year. They are giving up a mind boggling 8.65 yards per play. Ball State has allowed 39 plays of 20 yards or more already this year. 

Ball State has allowed a minimum of 34 points in every game this year. Missouri State scored 34 points. Central Michigan scored 37 points. Miami scored 62 points on them. James Madison scored 63 points on them. 

Western Michigan is 112th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They are 121st in success rate allowed. Ball State has faced some pretty good defenses in Miami and James Madison. Western Michigan is a clear step down from them. I think the Ball State passing attack should be able to do some work here.

Western Michigan's ground attack will be too good for Ball State. Western Michigan is just 28% on 3rd down so far this year, but I expect that to improve. The Broncos have played very good defenses this year. Now, they play arguably the worst defense in the country.

The weather looks good for Saturday here with clear skies forecast and a temperature in the 70's with 4 mph wind.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* I have been extremely impressed by Northern Illinois on the defensive end this year. Northern Illinois allowed just 286 yards and 4.7 yards per play against Notre Dame. They allowed just 184 yards and 3.4 YPP despite an overtime against Buffalo. They allowed just 171 yards and 3.6 YPP against NC State last weekend.

UMass has struggled offensively because they just don't have enough of a running game. Northern Illinois has an excellent secondary and the Huskies should be in the backfield quite a bit in this one.

The UMass defense is much improved this year. They only allowed 258 yards against a good Toledo offense. They allowed just 349 yards and 5.7 YPP in overtime against Miami last week. 

The pace of this game should be extremely slow. Both teams are slow pace wise and aren't typically very explosive on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* There should be a bunch of tempo in this game. Washington State 13th in tempo in the country. Boise State 41st despite playing from the lead much of the time.

Ashton Jeanty is the best running back in the country. Boise State has an unreal six rushing plays of 60 yards or more already this season! They are averaging 8.81 yards per carry. Washington State has had significant trouble defending the run. The Cougars are 107th in the nation in YPC allowed and they have allowed 22 rushes for 10 yards or more already this season.

John Mateer has been good for Washington State. The Cougars have scored 37 points or more in three games already this year. Washington State is going against a Boise State defense that isn't very good. The Broncos are 78th in success rate allowed and 119th in explosiveness allowed.

These two teams are first (Washington State) and tenth (Boise State) in explosiveness on offense. Both of them are top 40 tempo teams too. A lot of pace and explosiveness in this one. The weather forecast looks great with virtually no wind also.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Under* The Troy Trojans are 102nd in the nation in tempo. That is despite the fact that they have been playing from behind a lot this year. UL Monroe is 132nd out of 134 teams in the country in tempo. The Warhawks clearly want to play very slowly. 

UL Monroe has just 3 plays of 30 yards or more this season. This offense isn't explosive at all. Troy is 83rd in offensive success rate. The Trojans are just 100th in rushing play success rate on offense. 

UL Monroe has done a good job keeping everything in front of them. They have allowed only 3 plays of 30 yards or more on defense despite playing Texas and UAB. 

These are two teams who are limited on offense and struggle to punch it in once they get into the red zone. The tempo that this game will be played at means there shouldn't be very many possessions.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kent State Golden Flashes lost two quarterbacks for the season in last week's game against Penn State. Ulatowski will start here because he really is the only option. Ulatowski has been dealing with a finger injury too, and he isn't 100 percent healthy. Even when everyone is healthy this is a terrible offense. Kent State averages 1.67 yards per carry on the season. The Golden Flashes have no explosiveness. They have only 7 plays of 20 yards or more in four games.

Eastern Michigan is typically a conservative team who likes to win lower scoring contests under Chris Creighton. Eastern Michigan is 107th in explosiveness in the country, so the Eagles aren't breaking many big gainers either. Eastern Michigan is averaging just 2.90 yards per carry. 

Last year these two met and it was 28-14 with low offensive success rates. I see Kent State being ultra conservative here with no playmakers and a hurt quarterback. Eastern Michigan should play from the lead and slow things down too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The James Madison Dukes just score 70 points in an epic 70-50 win over the North Carolina Tar Heels. James Madison has found a really good quarterback in Alonza Barnett. He can win with him arm or his legs at any time. 

James Madison is 21st in the country in explosiveness on offense. The Dukes have had a nice balance of run and passing success.

Ball State ranks dead last in the country in total defense so far this year. The Cardinals are atrocious against the run. They just allowed Central Michigan to run for 335 yards last game, and the Chippewas aren't a rushing powerhouse by any means. Ball State allowed 34 points against Missouri State (FCS). James Madison should put up a big number here.

Ball State has picked up the pace a bit. They are throwing it around and Kadin Semonza is at least a decent quarterback. They did win big, but James Madison allowed UNC's Criswell to throw for 475 yards.

Ball State is giving up 8.88 yards per play which is just crazy. This total is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Navy Midshipmen rushing attack is much more dynamic this year than it was last season. Navy has seen all 3 games go over the posted total. Navy has reached 49 points, 38 points, and 56 points by themselves on offense in their three contests. They are averaging 6.45 yards per carry on the season. Navy ran for 361 yards against Memphis last week in a 56-44 win.

UAB plays at a quick pace. The Blazers are 26th in the nation in tempo. UAB has a solid quarterback in Zeno. They should get some decent chances against a Navy team that is weakest in the secondary. 

UAB defensively is 102nd in the nation in yards per carry allowed. They were beaten badly on the ground by UL Monroe.

Navy is playing at a faster pace than they have in recent seasons. They aren't breaking any records, but they are no longer playing at an extremely slow pace. Navy already has 12 plays of 30 yards or more on the season too.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bulls upset the Northern Illinois Huskies on Saturday 23-02, but Buffalo couldn't do anything on offense in that game. They finished with just 184 total yards. Buffalo is averaging only 4.5 yards per play on the season. The Bulls are 122nd in the nation in offensive success rate. 

UConn just ran for 421 yards against Florida Atlantic this past weekend. I wouldn't expect a repeat here. UConn only ran for 88 yards against Maryland. They only had 4.6 yards per play overall against Duke. 

Defensively, Buffalo has been elite at preventing big plays. Opponents have only two plays of 30 yards or more all season against the Bulls.

Both of these teams are running the football on about 65% of their offensive plays. Both of these teams have the ability to get into the backfield and get the opposition behind the chains at times. 

A lot of running and the clock moving quickly here.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Toledo Rockets just destroyed Mississippi State in Starkville this past weekend. Nothing about their win looked like a fluke. Their offensive was humming. Now, the Mississippi State defense is certainly bad, but it was still impressive for a MAC school against an SEC team.

Western Kentucky brought in backup quarterback Veltkamp last week in their win over MTSU after Finley was injured. Veltkamp went a whopping 27/30 for 398 yards passing and 5 TD's/0 INT's. A ridiculous line. 

On the other side, Western Kentucky allowed a really bad MTSU offense to put up 9.5 yards per play on them. The Blue Raiders were slinging it around in the second half with very little defense at all holding them back. I think Toledo's Gleason will have a lot of success throwing it here.

Toledo's tempo was slower last week because they were blowing out Miss State, but they have generally been top 35 in the nation in tempo. Western Kentucky is 34th in tempo. There should be a lot of possessions in this game with both offenses being pretty explosive as well.

I see the offenses having the upper hand. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The N Texas defense- it’s nearly impossible to say anything nice about them. Gave up 7.1 YPP to S Bama and 8.3 YPP to Tex Tech. N Texas was an over train last year and I don’t see anything to make me think they are anything different this year. 116th in explosiveness allowed.

Wyoming's offense is bad, but this will be the worst defense they have faced yet. On the other side though, the Wyoming defense is MUCH worse than expected. They allowed 6.8 YPP against BYU. They allowed 7.0 YPP against Arizona State even though the Sun Devils shut it down in the 4th quarter. We aren’t accustomed to seeing bad Wyoming defenses, but it looks like this group is weak.

Chandler Morris is an over quarterback. He will hit some big gainers but could throw a pick six at any time.

Another plus in this one is the game time temperature of 92 degrees. Those very hot temperatures have been good to over bettors in the past. The defenses can have a tough time tackling in the heat.

Take the over here.

*3 Star Play Over* The East Carolina Pirates are first in the nation in tempo. They are going to get a lot of plays off and very quickly. Liberty plays at about an average pace, but they are well known for their explosive plays with Salter at quarterback and Chadwell as a bright offensive mind at coach.

East Carolina has had major trouble with turnovers and red zone efficiency on offense this year. If those can regress toward the mean, the Pirates have the ability to score a lot of points with the pace they are playing at. Liberty's biggest weakness by far is their secondary, and East Carolina is going to throw the ball early and often.

East Carolina is good on the defensive front, but the Pirates secondary can be beaten. I expect Salter to be able to create some plays with his legs and his arm in this one.

I had this number a good amount higher than this total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado State Rams offense has been a huge disappointment so far this year. Colorado State was shut out by Texas which is at least somewhat understandable. They were also held to only 9 points by Colorado, and the Buffaloes defense is only mediocre. 

Tory Horton is reportedly doubtful for this game. Horton is easily the best player on this Colorado State offense, and with him slowed down or not playing at all, this offense isn't even close to the same. Fowler-Nicolosi is still young and the running game hasn't been consistent. 

UTEP is 108th in the nation in yards per play on offense. They haven't had much of an identity on offense so far this year. The Miners only put up 10 points on Liberty and could only score 24 against Southern Utah in an overtime game.

These two offenses are near the bottom of the nation in explosiveness on the season thus far.

The weather on Saturday in Fort Collins is notable too. The current average of four weather forecasts calls for 18 mph winds with gusts of about 33 mph during this game. There is a chance for showers as well. This kind of wind can really change a game and make the play calling more conservative.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bulls have a new coach in Pete Lembo. He is a defensive minded coach, and Buffalo's secondary is a clear strength. The Bulls still have to find an identity on offense though. 

Buffalo is terrible on the offensive line. The Bulls also have big weaknesses at both the quarterback and running back positions. The overall lack of talent on this offense is striking. Buffalo scored 0 against Missouri earlier this year. They just scored 34 against UMass, but had just 5.2 yards per play in that game. 

Northern Illinois is coming off that huge win at Notre Dame. I'm really impressed with the coaching staff of the Huskies and their strength on the defensive line. Northern Illinois plays at a slow pace. They are 107th in the nation in tempo so far this year. 

Both of these teams run the ball about 64% of the time on offense. There should be a lot of moving clock and I wouldn't expect many possessions in this game. 

I think both defenses can prevent the explosive plays quite well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Mississippi State Bulldogs are a completely different type of team under Jeff Lebby this year. Their goal is to play as quickly as possible and be aggressive on offense. They'll look to throw it around quite a bit. Blake Shapen is a good fit at quarterback for this system. 

Toledo lost a superstar defensive back in Quinyon Mitchell from last year. The Rockets secondary is much weaker than it has been in recent seasons. Toledo is without star LB Gant from last year too. 

Toledo has a good quarterback in Gleason and a really good group of wide receivers. The Rockets should be able to move the ball against a Bulldogs defense that is way down from a year ago as well. 

Both of these teams are ranked in the top 18 in the country in terms of pace of play. There should be a bunch of possessions here.

There is a small chance of some rain during this one, but the winds are very minimal and that is the key. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UAB Blazers just lost 32-6 to ULM last week in an embarrassing performance. UAB's defense is 68th in the nation in yards per carry allowed, and their two opponents played have been Alcorn State and ULM. That's a very weak schedule of rushing attacks. 

Arkansas is coming off a heartbreaking double OT loss against Oklahoma State. Still, the Razorbacks offense showed us a lot in that game. Arkansas put up 648 yards of offense and 7.0 YPP. Taylen Green looks great in Petrino's offense. Arkansas is playing very quickly too. There is no reason to believe UAB can even slow them down in this game.

The Arkansas defense is susceptible against the pass, and I think Zeno and company can do some work through the air here. UAB is a top 30 tempo team, and they will be pushing for extra possessions in this one.

This number has dipped a couple points, and at this number I have to go with the over.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The East Carolina Pirates are playing much faster this year. They are running the air raid and pushing the pace to the extreme. They are 4th in the nation in tempo. East Carolina has turned the ball over quite a bit in opponent territory so far this year, but they have been moving the ball well. East Carolina had 466 yards of offense against a pretty decent Old Dominion defense last week. 

Appalachian State just gave up 66 points to Clemson last week. Cade Klubnik went 24/26 passing against this secondary. They'll look much better in this game than that, but there are troubling signs for the Mountaineers defense overall. 

Appalachian State's offense is excellent in the passing game with Joey Aguilar. They have the best wide receivers in the Sun Belt, and they'll be very tough covers for East Carolina. They are 28th in the nation in tempo so far this year. 

These two teams played last year and Appalachian State won 43-28. Now, East Carolina is playing much quicker than they did a year ago. 

I think this total is set too low by a good amount. Look for a lot of passing and a fast pace. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Washington State won 70-30 over Portland State last weekend. John Mateer was in a tight quarterback battle with Cam Ward before last year, and Washington State is in pretty good shape at quarterback with him and Eckhaus both in the fold this year. Mateer threw for 352 yards and 5 TD's on just 17 attempts. Washington State put up a whopping 12.5 yards per play in week one.

Texas Tech won 52-51 in overtime over Abilene Christian in week one. They allowed 615 yards to FCS Abilene Christian. This Red Raiders secondary lost a ton from last year, and they allowed more than 500 passing yards to Abilene. 

Ben Arbuckle is a great offensive coordinator and I think Washington State will be ready with tempo and a ton of deep looks down the field against this weakened Texas Tech secondary.

On the other side, Washington State allowed 30 points against Portland state, and this Cougars defense is down a lot from last year. They are bad against the run and Tahj Brooks is a really underrated running back for Texas Tech. Morton is a good passer who should have a big game here.

Who's going to get stops? I don't think there will be very many.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Volunteers offense looked like a well oiled machine against Chattanooga last week. Yes it was Chattanooga, but the Mocs are actually a pretty decent FCS team. Nico Iamaleava is a budding star at quarterback. The Volunteers were winning so big that he didn't play a large portion of the game, but when he was in he looked fantastic. Remember, it was Nico who carved up an amazing Iowa defense in the bowl game last year.

Tennessee vowed to play tempo to the extreme this year, and they played ridiculously fast in game one. They averaged just 19.44 seconds between plays, and that is with slowing down some late with a huge lead. They'll push the tempo here.

NC State struggled with Western Carolina. NC State's defense was very poor in that game. In fact, Western Carolina ran for 6.32 yards per carry in that game. Tennessee's offensive line is very good and I think they'll clear quite a few holes here.

The weakness of the Tennessee team is their secondary. The Volunteers will give up big plays through the air. That's exactly where I think McCall and the NC State offense can have success. With NC State likely playing from behind here, I expect them to throw it around and hit some big ones against this Volunteers secondary.

I like both offenses chances of moving the ball a lot in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tulsa Golden Hurricanes and Arkansas State Red Wolves both want to play fast. I expect a bunch of possessions in this game with both teams running their uptempo offense. 

Tulsa put up 62 points on Northwestern State in game one. Francis played very well at quarterback. Arkansas State allowed 7.1 yards per play against Central Arkansas. The Red Wolves defense appears to still have major problems this season.

Arkansas State has a star quarterback in Jalen Raynor. Raynor has good WR's to throw it to, and this Tulsa secondary is a bottom 20 secondary in the country. I think Arkansas State moves the ball well in this one. 

Two defenses who have a history of being weak and giving up a ton of explosive plays. Two offenses who play fast and will take chances down the field. I see a lot of points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* South Alabama coming off a shootout game against N Texas. They had 582 yards of offense, but still lost by 14 points. The Jaguars ran tempo for much of the game. They averaged only 22 seconds between snaps- very quick. They ran 84 plays in game one. Gio Lopez looks like a pretty decent QB for this S Alabama system. He threw for 432 yards and ran for 62 on 13 carries. Ohio’s secondary is completely new and they were absolutely torched by McCord and Syracuse last week.

Kane Wommack is a great defensive mind, and him being gone hurts South Alabama in a big way. Ohio had 10 rushes for 10 yards or more in game one against Syracuse. I don't think Syracuse's defense is good, but they are better than the South Alabama defense.

South Alabama should push the pace, and Ohio's defense is no longer the stout unit they were in the past. South Alabama gave up 52 points against North Texas.

I think this total is too low.

Take the over.

*4 Star Play Over* The Syracuse Orange showed their improvements on offense last week in their 38-22 win over Ohio. Syracuse averaged 6.86 yards per play. The Orange got a good game out of Kyle McCord. Gadsden is an elite tight end and I expect a big season from him. LeQuint Allen is an underrated running back too. 

For as good as the offense looked for Syracuse, the defense looked that bad. They allowed 6.54 yards per carry against an Ohio running attack that I don't expect to be very good. They were gashed by a team that had very little deep passing attack to keep them honest. The worst news of all for Syracuse was their star Marlowe Wax, the team's best defender, was injured and the coaching staff said they expect him to miss a few weeks.

Georgia Tech played very slowly tempo wise in the game against Florida State as part of the game plan, but they played at a normal pace last week. The Yellow Jackets offense is really tough to defend with an excellent OC in Buster Faulkner and a dual threat quarterback in Haynes King. They should get a lot of big gainers on Syracuse.

The Yellow Jackets defense is still a problem. They played a Florida State offense with issues and then a Georgia State offense that is extremely weak. They still are allowing 4.13 yards per carry. This is a defense I don't trust. 

Syracuse pushed the pace in week one and I think they will here too. Georgia Tech's offensive efficiency should continue.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Florida Atlantic Owls have a terrible offensive line and a subpar quarterback in Cam Fancher. Florida Atlantic is going to struggle badly on offense this year. They put up just 10 points on a Michigan State team that isn't loaded by any means on defense. Florida Atlantic does have a very tough defense with the front seven being a clear strength.

Army used 31 seconds between plays in week one, and they will be one of the slowest paced teams in the country this year. They are expected to be extremely run heavy this year. In their first game, Army attempted 8 passes and ran the ball 46 times. I would expect something similar here unless they get down big early. With the spread inside a field goal, that isn't too likely.

The Army defense could struggle against high powered passing attacks, but Florida Atlantic is definitely not that type of team. 

I think this one will be a tight hard fought battle where the defenses have the advantage. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Charlotte 49ers have played slowly on offense under Poggi. I would expect them to do their best to try to win sloppy low scoring games. The Charlotte defense is the strength of the team. Poggi is a defensive minded coach. Charlotte was able to pick up a bunch of secondary transfers in the portal. The pass defense should improve this season. The defensive line was a solid unit last year and should be again. 

Charlotte lacks the star power at QB/RB/WR to put up a lot of points on hardly anyone. They have some solid TE's and they will use them as much as they can. 

James Madison gets a whole new look this year. Chesney has been a good coach for many years and I like the hire of him. I think it is likely that JMU will want to establish the run with this offense. The wide receivers are a weakness for the Dukes. The James Madison defense is clearly way down from last year, but I still think it is an above average Sun Belt defense. I think they can limit big plays.

I expect a fairly slow tempo for both teams. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas A&M Aggies have defensive mastermind Mike Elko as their new head coach. Elko is one of the best defensive minds in the nation. It's also especially interesting in this one because he knows Riley Leonard, the new Notre Dame quarterback, as well as anyone. Leonard was the quarterback for Elko last year at Duke.

I expect the extremely young Notre Dame offensively line to struggle badly against Scourton and the stars on the defensive line for Texas A&M. Notre Dame is unlikely to have much time throw the ball down the field here. I think they'll play things pretty safe on offense.

The Notre Dame defense has stars on the defensive line in Cross and Mills as well. Texas A&M has a new offense to learn and an extremely tough defense to test it out against here. I think the Aggies will play at a slower pace than most teams this year on the whole.

The two defenses have the upper hand here, and the defensive lines have the single biggest advantages. I think it will be tough to move the ball here, and when the teams do move the ball I think they'll settle for field goals pretty often.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines still have an absolutely elite defensive line. I think Mason Graham is going to be a major problem for nearly every opponent this year. Michigan should dominate Fresno State's offensive line in this one. Mikey Keene is a solid quarterback, but I don't think he'll have much time at all to throw here. The Fresno State running backs aren't going to have room to run either.

Michigan's offense lost so much from last year. McCarthy was a great leader and he made things happen when the play was busted. I expect Orji to get most of the snaps at quarterback for Michigan here. He's a good scrambler, but I don't know that Michigan trusts him a lot in the passing game yet. Fresno State is an excellent secondary, and I do expect them to make things tough on the Michigan passing attack.

Michigan should play slowly under Sherrone Moore, and I would expect a very run heavy attack. The Wolverines play Texas next weekend in one of the biggest non-conference clashes of the season this year. Why would Michigan put a lot on tape here for Texas to see? The Wolverines should be happy to run the ball and be pretty vanilla on offense.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Kennesaw State is in their first season of FBS action. I expect them to run the ball early and often from their pistol option offensive attack. They should also play very slowly and attempt to reduce the amount of possessions here. 

UTSA should be a little less explosive without Frank Harris at quarterback. The Roadrunners have big games against Texas State and Texas coming up right after this. The Roadrunners are unlikely to show anything too much in a game like this. I think they'll be less likely to want to run up the score than they would in a different situation.

The UTSA defensive line should be too much for the Kennesaw State offensive front that is a clear question mark heading into the season.

UTSA should win comfortably here and I think Kennesaw State struggles to do much scoring at all.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines and Alabama Crimson Tide meet in what should be an epic semifinal in the Rose Bowl. Michigan was the more consistent team through the year, but Alabama's talent is second to none. The Wolverines offense has struggled a bit to get going at times this year. The Wolverines defense has been solid as ever this year.

Michigan defensively has no clear weakness. The Wolverines are 6th in YPC allowed and 6th in the country in opposing QBR allowed. While Alabama has been quite explosive on offense, Michigan has done a great job not giving up big plays this season. 

Alabama's offense has relied more on explosives than normal. Milroe is a fantastic play maker, but he does take too many big negative plays. I think the Michigan pass rush can give him a difficult time here. 

The Alabama defense is supremely talented. They are good against the run, and the secondary is elite. Michigan is 112th in explosiveness on offense. The Wolverines are just 75th in the country in yards per carry. Without Zinter, their best offensive lineman, I think Michigan will have a hard time just running it right at Alabama here. 

Michigan is dead last (133rd) in the country in pace of play. The Wolverines are going to be happy to move very slowly and take a lot of time on their drives. Alabama is 105th in tempo, so they play pretty slowly as well.

I like the defenses to make it hard for the opposing offenses here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Memphis Tigers have been able to make almost every game they play in a shootout this year. In fact, eight of their last nine games have gone over this total. The one that didn't go over was still at 52 points. 

The Memphis defense gives up loads of big plays. They have given up 71 plays of 20 yards or more on the season. Iowa State is first in the nation in explosiveness on offense. Becht has done a great job as quarterback for the Cyclones.

Iowa State's secondary was pretty good during the year, but they are shorthanded here. TJ Tampa is a star in the secondary and he has opted out. Malik Verdell is injured and is questionable to play too.

Seth Henigan and the Memphis offense should be able to do enough to get this game over the number. Memphis is averaging 39.6 points per game this year. This is a better defense than they usually face, but I think the Memphis team speed on offense can get them some scores.

Iowa State has a huge advantage on offense, and I like Memphis to be able to score when playing from behind.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The SMU Mustangs defense was underrated all season long. SMU ranked fourth in success rate allowed in the country. They were 12th in the nation in YPC allowed. The strong run defense of SMU is key here since Boston College runs it on 60% of their plays for the year as a whole. Boston College has been even more run heavy in recent weeks.

Castellanos for Boston College has been banged up and the BC offense has been much more buttoned up of late. Boston College comes into this game very short handed at both running back and wide receiver based on the transfer portal. I don't trust the BC offense to get much done here.

SMU is without Preston Stone at quarterback. They are more conservative with Jennings at quarterback. This Mustangs offense is solid, but not spectacular.

Fenway Park is the venue here and this game has a history of a lot of windy games with poor weather in general. It's an 11 am eastern kickoff in Boston in winter. The long range forecast calls for rain showers and a decent amount of wind. I like the under even without weather, but this could be a nice bonus too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* FSU put up just 3.9 yards per play on a bad Florida defense last week. I know it is a rivalry game, but that is concerning. Florida had been getting torched weekly until last week. FSU 4th in explosiveness on offense for the year, but likely less explosive with Tate Rodemaker at QB. 

Louisville defense 40th in YPP allowed, but 21st at PFF in overall defense grade. 6th in defensive line yards. FSU is 111th in offensive line yards. I don’t think FSU can just run it down their throats. 

Louisville 91st in OFF Line yards. FSU 13th in DEF Line yards. I think the Cardinals ground game has trouble getting going too. The FSU defense has been underrated throughout the season. Louisville's Plummer has been inconsistent at quarterback this year.

There is some rain and a little wind in the forecast as well.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* Preston Stone is a key loss for SMU at quarterback. Jennings has very little experience at quarterback.

SMU gave up just 4.4 yards per play in the AAC. Amazing! The Mustangs held 4 of their last 7 opponents to 14 points or less. 

Tulane’s offense didn’t really work nearly as well as expected this year. Tulane was 108th in rushing play success rate on offense- very low for a Willie Fritz coached team. SMU 11th in rushing play success rate allowed.

SMU has a great pass rush. 5th in the country in pass rush grade at PFF. 40 sacks!! Pratt is good but I think he’ll be under pressure more than normal here. 

Tulane plays at a slow pace. They run on 60% of offensive plays.

SMU offense should be a bit more conservative with Jennings. If anything I would expect more running. The Tulane run defense has been elite. The way to beat the Tulane defense has been passing.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* The Toledo Rockets won 17-7 last year in the MAC Title game against an Ohio Bobcats team without their star quarterback. Toledo ran the ball over and over again in that game and grinded it out. Now, Toledo goes into the title game in the MAC against a Miami team without star quarterback Brett Gabbert.

Aveon Smith has struggled badly for Miami. Miami is going to want to run the football as much as they can and move very slowly. They don't want a high scoring game, because their offense simply isn't good enough to win shootouts. Toledo does give up successful running plays, but they are excellent in the secondary and they don't give up explosive plays. Miami's drives should take a bunch of time off the clock. 

Toledo had just 4.3 yards per play in their 21-17 win over Miami in the regular season. The Rockets want to run the ball a lot, but Miami has the best run defense in the MAC. Miami has allowed 21 points or fewer in every MAC game they have played this year. 

I don't think we'll see many big plays here. Toledo likely wins, but Miami's defense won't make it easy.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Rutgers defense ranks first in explosiveness allowed. The Maryland defense ranks 8th in explosiveness allowed. These two are very good at not giving up that huge play. 

Rutgers is 127th in the nation in tempo. The Scarlet Knights are going to play slowly, and they are going to run the football as often as possible.

Rutgers is 10th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Schiano's defenses always play very hard and this one is no different. The strength of their defense is their secondary. Maryland likes to throw the ball and Rutgers should have the guys to slow them down.

Maryland's defense is much improved this year. They are 25th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

The Rutgers offense has scored 16 points total in the last two years against Maryland. They will likely struggle again here. Rutgers is much better defensively this year than the last two years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Virginia Tech Hokies offense has hit a whole new gear in recent weeks. With Drones at quarterback instead of Wells, this is a much more explosive offense. Drones has been very good running and good enough in the passing game too. VA Tech put up 7.6 yards per play on a very good NC State defense last week. They put up 8.3 YPP two weeks ago on the Boston College defense.

Virginia has a good young quarterback in Colandrea. He is a big play guy either way at this stage in his career. He throws too many picks and a pick six is always a possibility, but he is creating big plays for the Cavs on offense too. Virginia has 6.4 YPP on a good Louisville defense two weeks ago and an impressive 6.3 YPP against Duke last week too.

Virginia has picked up their pace of late. 

These two teams are 114th and 120th in the country in explosiveness allowed. The weather calls for a nice day here. Expect some big plays.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders passing attack has been much better in the last few weeks. Quarterback Nicholas Vattiato has 12 touchdown passes compared to just 4 interceptions in MTSU's last four games. The offense has picked up their pace significantly too, and it has been working. 

Sam Houston State's offense was dreadul early in the season, but they have been much better in the last five games.

Both teams are snapping the ball every 24.1 seconds which is far quicker than the national average. A total set this low for a game played at this pace is pretty rare unless there are elite defenses.

The MTSU defense is 77th in the nation in YPP allowed and Sam Houston is 99th. MTSU is 11th in the nation in explosiveness on offense.

It's the last game for both and I think the offenses will show up.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Jayden Daniels has impressed me the most of any player in the country this year. He was very good last year in Brian Kelly's system, but this year he has been elite. LSU is clearly putting up as many stats as possible for Daniels to try to get him the Heisman Trophy. Daniels is one of the two favorites (Bo Nix) for the award. Nix is likely to get more games to play while Daniels will not. This is LSU's last chance to feature Daniels and put up a big number.

The Texas A&M secondary is banged up right now, and LSU should be able to hit some explosive plays on them. Texas A&M has a good defense overall, but Miami put up 48 points on them and Ole Miss scored 38. The LSU offense is the best one they have faced all seaosn.

The LSU defense is one of the worst in the SEC. While we don't know if it will be Henderson or Johnson at quarterback for A&M here, I think they can score enough regardless. LSU has allowed 117 plays of 10 yards or more this year.

LSU will score a lot here. I expect A&M to do enough too.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles take on the Buffalo Bulls in Buffalo on Tuesday night. Eastern Michigan and Buffalo are 9th and 10th in the MAC in yards per play on offense. 

Buffalo had high scoring games in the non conference, but in MAC contests they have had a bunch of low scoring games. Buffalo has seen 5 of their 7 games in the MAC finish at 38 total points or lower. Eastern Michigan has had five games finish at 36 points or lower.

These two are the least explosive offenses in the MAC. They rarely get big plays and the defenses should have the edge.

The weather should play a big role here. There is rain in the forecast with sustained winds 17 mph and gusts to 25 mph. That should make the play calling even more conservative.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The NC State Wolfpack have gone full out stall mode on offense of late. In their last three games they are the second slowest paced team in the country. NC State is a run heavy offense that doesn't have much explosiveness at all. NC State is 114th in explosiveness in the country.

The VA Tech defense has given up some big plays, but on a down to down basis they have been good. I don't think NC State is the type of team who can break those big gainers. VA Tech's defense is 23rd in the country in havoc. They are 24th in success rate allowed. 

VA Tech's offense has been much better with Kyron Drones at quarterback. They are running about 60% of the time on offense. NC State's defense has been excellent of late. The Wolfpack are 17th defensive line yards and 22nd in rushing play success rate allowed. 

VA Tech ranks in the bottom ten in the country in terms of tempo in the last three games alone. Two running teams with very slow paced offenses.

NC State's last four games have finished: 24-3, 24-17, 20-6, and 26-6. Four of their last six games have finished with a total of 32 points or fewer.

Take the under here. 

*This line has moved since I selected it early this week. I would still take this as long as it is at or above the key number of 41. Thanks and good luck.* 

*3 Star Play Over* The UAB Blazers had a rare very poor showing on offense last week. Navy slowed that game down and UAB didn't play to their potential on offense. UAB overall for the season though is 25th in success rate on offense and the Blazers have scored 35 points or more four times. On the other side, UAB has allowed 41 points or more six times. UAB's tempo is 19th quickest in the country and that often turns their games into shootouts. 

Temple's offensive stats are skewed because E.J. Warner missed time and the Owls offense could do nothing in his absence. With Warner in the fold, Temple's offense is very good throwing the football. The Owls are 17th in tempo in the country. Temple's defense is 110th in YPP allowed in the country. They are especially terrible against the pass. Jacob Zeno is a good quarterback for UAB and he should have success. Temple has allowed 36 points or more six times this year.

I see a back and forth game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines didn't throw a single pass in the second half against Penn State. Michigan just edged their way down the field and controlled things with the running game. 

One major reason Michigan running the football so much is important to a total is the Wolverines ranks 132nd (or second slowest) in tempo in the country. They move very methodically. Michigan is 103rd in the country in explosiveness. I have little doubt they'll move the ball well against Maryland, but it should take a lot of time off the clock. Maryland is 13th in the country in explosiveness allowed, so they don't give up big plays very often.

The Michigan defense is 3rd in the country in success rate allowed. They are second in opposing QBR allowed. Michigan is 19th in YPC allowed, but Maryland is only 93rd in the nation in YPC.

Michigan has Ohio State next week and the Wolverines would be well suited to get a lead and get out of here with a win playing conservatively.

The weather here is a plus too. The blend of four forecasts calls for 16 mph winds with gusts of about 28 mph here. That tends to make teams both more conservative and helps the defenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UCLA Bruins saw Ethan Garbers and Dante Moore both get banged up in their loss to Arizona last Saturday. Neither of them practiced on Monday. Ethan Garbers wasn't even at the practice and Moore watched practice without his helmet on. That leaves UCLA thin at QB and would make them more predictable on offense.

Trenton Bourguet was injured very early in the Arizona State blowout loss to Utah. Because of other injuries, Arizona State was down to Jacob Conover (4th string QB) and he went 5/22 and was a disaster against Utah last week. Conover might be the man again Saturday. Coach Dillingham said if the game were today Bourguet wouldn't be able to play. 

The UCLA defense has been fantastic all year. Arizona State's defense has been better than expected. After a poor effort last week, I think the Sun Devils defense will at least play better here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The pace will help a lot here. Wash State 31st in tempo this year. Cal is 11th. Lots of pace and plenty of possessions here.

The Cal defense is very bad. There are 123rd at PFF in defensive grade. They are also 130th in passing play success rate allowed. We know Washington St will throw it a bunch. 60% of their plays are a pass. Cam Ward is hot and cold, but I like his chances of having a good game against this secondary. Cal’s Dline 122nd in havoc rate. Wash State OLine poor in pass blocking, but they won’t get dominated here like they are some games.

Cal’s strength on offense is clearly in the running game. Ott is a tremendous runner and they have some depth behind him and a fairly mobile QB. Wash St 100th in rush play success rate allowed. Wash State 11th in Pac 12 in YPC allowed. I think Cal gets the ground game going here.

Washington State has had a couple lower scoring games of late which has kept this number down, but I think this sets up as a track meet type game with the offenses having a bunch of success.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas Razorbacks are playing much different under new offensive coordinator Kenny Guiton than they did under Dan Enos. That's a good thing for the team and for the over. Their offense was terrible and the play calling was bad earlier this year. Arkansas played nearly two seconds per play quicker last week than they did on average the rest of the season. 

Arkansas also has Rocket Sanders back and Coach Pittman said he's healthier coming into this game than he was going into last weekend. Sanders had his best game of the year last week against Florida. He makes this offense much better when he is at least pretty healthy. 

Auburn's running game should have some success against a mediocre Arkansas defense. The Razorbacks just allowed 36 points against Florida. Auburn's passing attack has been slightly better of late to give them some balance.

I think this number makes sense for the season as a whole, but it is too low based on the changes for Arkansas. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather is key in this one. Right now the National Weather service says 85% chance of rain during this one. Sustained winds of about 20 mph and gusts as high as 30 mph. If that comes to fruition that absolutely is enough to make a big impact on the game.

6 of Utah’s 9 games have finished with 41 points or fewer total. Whittingham knows they don’t want a shootout against this Huskies team.

Washington has played a lot of high scoring games this year, but the weather and an opponent with a weak offense and very strong defense is coming up in this one.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* The UAB Blazers have played eight games against FBS opponents. The lowest combined score has been 58 points. They have hit 70 points or higher in four of their eight games. They have only stayed in the 50's once. 

UAB's passing attack is very good with Jacob Zeno back in the fold. Zeno was 29/35 for 484 yards and 5 TD's passing last week. Navy has a passing defense that is ranked in the bottom ten in passing play success rate allowed. 

UAB's defense is atrocious against the run. They are 132nd out of 133 in the country in rushing play success rate allowed. They are 130th in YPC allowed. We know Navy will run the football a lot, and they should have success against this UAB defensive front. 

UAB will push the pace in a big way. Both defenses are weak. This total has moved down to the point I have to fire on an over. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Colorado Buffaloes made a offensive coordinator change late last week. I didn't like the move at all. Sean Lewis is a really good offensive coordinator, but the move was made to Shurmur and Lewis was demoted. Shurmur was brought in likely to run the ball more and play at a slower pace. The Colorado offensive line has been so bad that Shedeur Sanders has gotten banged up badly. He clearly isn't himself right now. 

Colorado played 2.5 seconds per play slower last week than they have for the year overall. The Buffaloes were pass heavy, but they playing from pretty far behind and they were unable to get any offense going at all until very late in the game. 

Arizona's defense is flying under the radar. The Wildcats defense is much better of late. Arizona is  25th in explosiveness allowed. You aren't going to get big plays on them. They can get in the backfield often too with their talented linebackers. The Colorado OLine is going to be in trouble here.

Colorado's defense has played somewhat better of late. They have at least slowed down UCLA and Oregon State in the last couple weeks. Arizona's offense is a good one, but they are playing at a pretty slow tempo.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Temple Owls offensive numbers are skewed. E.J. Warner is everything to this offense and he missed a couple games recently and they were absolutely hapless in those games. Temple is a good offense with Warner on the field though. He came back last week and was great against Navy. Now, Temple goes to take on a weaker defense in USF.

USF is 132nd in the nation in explosive plays allowed. The Bulls are 1st in the nation in tempo though. Their games have been absolutely shootouts. They lost 59-50 last week against Memphis. In USF's last six games, five of them have finished at 70 total points or higher. 

Temple had games finish at 74 and 83 points total before Warner was hurt. Temple is a fast paced team as well. 

There should be a lot of possessions and I like this one to be a back and forth game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Georgia offense is better than people realize. Georgia's Carson Beck is playing good football right now. Even without Brock Bowers, Georgia has solid weapons in the passing game. Georgia put up 486 yards and 7.4 yards per play against Florida last week. The Bulldogs are capable of big things on offense.

Missouri's offense has been much improved this year. The play caller here is doing a good job taking advantage of Missouri having one of the best WR rooms in the country this year. Brady Cook has been excellent and Burden and company are a tough cover for anyone. 

Georgia's defense is clearly very good, but what good offense have they faced this year? This is one of the weakest opposing offenses schedules you could find. Missouri will be the best offense they have seen this year. 

The Missouri defense allowed 21 points to Vandy. They gave up 27 points to Kansas State. LSU put up 8.1 yards per play and 49 points on them. The Tigers defense is worse than they were a year ago.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Memphis Tigers won 45-42 over North Texas last weekend. Memphis gained 600 yards of total offense, but they allowed 591 total yards. Both teams averaged better than 8 yards per play. 

Memphis has 44 plays of 20 yards or more on the season. They are solid offensively and are pretty explosive. South Florida has 44 plays of 20 yards or more on the season as well. What about the defenses? Both defenses have given up loads of explosive plays this year. USF is 130th in explosiveness allowed (out of 133 teams).

USF is second in the nation in tempo. The Bulls are absolutely flying on offense. Alex Golesh and this group want to turn every game into a track meet. USF has seen four of their last five games finish with 70 combined points or more. USF has allowed 56 points twice in their last three games. 

Memphis is allowing 5.47 yards per carry in AAC play. USF is 123rd in yards per play allowed on the season.

The pace here will be very quick and I like this one to be high scoring.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats are a run heavy offense. They are running the ball on 61% of their offensive plays in Big 12 play. Texas is first in the Big 12 in run defense, and the Longhorns big defensive front should slow down Kansas State much better than the Wildcats recent foes have. 

Kansas State's secondary was weak early in the season, but they have been amazing of late. In their last two games, Kansas State allowed 3 points against TCU and 0 points against Houston. 

Texas is without Quinn Ewers at quarterback. Maalik Murphy wasn't asked to do very much last week against BYU. I think Ewers will be missed especially because of his ability to throw the ball deep. 

Kansas State likely wants to run the ball and play slowly here. Both teams have looked excellent on defense lately. I expect a tight hard fought battle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The new clock rules have really made a difference in the higher total games. There is only so much time to score with the clock moving even after first downs. There will certainly still be some very high scoring games, but they have become more rare. 

Totals of 62 points or higher are 34-20 to the under this season.

Colorado has allowed 35 sacks. This Buffaloes offensive line is going to be beaten badly here. PFF rates the UCLA pass rush the e highest of anny in the country. Sanders is going to be under a lot of heat here. Colorado does play quickly but they aren’t always efficient.

The Colorado run defense isn't good, but it has been less bad in recent weeks. They are allowing only 3.94 YPC in Pac 12 play.

Only one of UCLA’s games against FBS competition has finished higher than 45 points.

Ethan Garbers is a more conservative quarterback and I think that could lead to less pick sixes and short fields for the opposition which Moore had done all too often.

Take the under here.

*3 Star Play Over* The Vanderbilt Commodores defense has been atrocious this year. They have given up 126 plays of 10 yards or more on the season thus far. In the SEC, they are allowing 6.85 yards per play. Vanderbilt gives up big plays in bunches, and Ole Miss is the definition of a big play offense.

Ole Miss has 52 plays of 20 yards or more already this season (3rd best in the country). The Rebels can do it through the air or on the ground. I don't think they'll get to 4th down very often in this game at all. 

Vanderbilt's offense isn't great, but through the air they have some explosiveness. That is a good fit here since Ole Miss has been weakest in the secondary. Ole Miss is 84th in total QBR allowed. They are 90th in pass play success rate allowed.

The two teams are 7th and 14th in the nation in explosiveness on offense. 

These two met last year and Ole Miss won 52-28. Ole Miss had 9.9 yards per play. Vanderbilt's defense is worse this year. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Ohio Bobcats are nothing like they were last year. Ohio is excellent defensively this year. They are bottom 10 in the country in tempo. The Bobcats are happy to win low scoring games with strong defense this season. 6 of Ohio’s 8 games have finished with a combined total of 37 points or fewer.

The Miami OH defense has been tremendous especially in MAC play. They are allowing an average of 11.25 points per games in the MAC. Salopek is a star linebacker that leads the way for them.

Miami OH will be without star quarterback Brett Gabbert who had season ending surgery after an injury in the second half of the Toledo game. Aveon Smith is a decent backup, but there is a significant drop off from Gabbert to Smith. Smith is a runner first and he makes the Miami OH offense much more predictable. Gabbert’s big play ability in the passing game is no longer there.

Both teams rank in the bottom 25 in the country in terms of tempo. There shouldn't be many big plays here. It's a very low total, but I think it's low for a good reason.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* The Charlotte 49ers have shown us their game plan pretty clearly at this point. Charlotte wants to play as slowly as possible and run the football and control the time of possession. Charlotte is using 31 seconds between plays in their conference games. The 49ers rank in the bottom 10 in tempo in the country. 

Charlotte is 126th in the nation in rushing play success rate, but they are running the ball on more than 60% of their offensive plays in the conference. Charlotte's defense is much improved under Biff Poggi who is a defensive minded coach. The 49ers are 32nd in success rate allowed. They are giving up just 4.52 yards per play in conference action so far.

Florida Atlantic has been a big disappointment on offense so far this year. The Owls have been held to 187 points or fewer in four of their seven games. They gained just 2.9 yards per play against a mediocre UTSA defense last week. 

Charlotte has seen 4 of their 7 games (including 3 of their last 4) this year finish with a combined total of 29 points or fewer. This is the type of game Charlotte wants to play with their lack of big playmakers on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns were off last weekend. Louisiana has played five FBS opponents this year. The final combined total points scored in those games were: 69, 62, 83. 59, and 64 points. 

Louisiana is 12th in the nation in yards per play. They are balanced team who can beat you through the air or on the ground. 

Georgia State is 41st in the nation in yards per play on offense. The Panthers play quickly (39th in the nation in tempo). Georgia State is 11th in the nation in explosive plays on offense. 

Defensively, Georgia State is 121st in explosiveness allowed. The Panthers allowed 35 points against Rhode Island and 25 points against a really bad Charlotte offense. Even in their win last week, Georgia State gave up 6.7 yards per play against Marshall.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bulls defense looked terrible in the non-conference slate. They have played better against MAC competition. Obviously the MAC is a weak conference, but this has been a common trend for Buffalo. The defense ends up being above average in MAC play. 

Buffalo has given up just 4.83 yards per play in three MAC games. Kent State's offense is averaging a miserable 3.89 yards per play in the MAC. For the season as  a whole, Kent State is 132nd out of 133 teams in the country in yards per play.

Buffalo's offense has very little big play ability. In fact, Buffalo has only five plays of 30 yards or more all season long. Kent State's biggest weakness as a defense has been giving up the big play, but I don't think Buffalo will take advantage of that.

Buffalo is 127th in the nation in yards per play on offense. 

These are two really weak offenses.

The weather forecast here calls for 16 mph winds with gusts above 20 mph and showers during the day on Saturday. This is a long range forecast, and the weather is just a bonus.

Take the under. 

*This line has been moving down some throughout the week. I would still play this as long as it is 42 points or higher. Thanks and good luck.* 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers offense is extremely reliant on being able to run the ball this year. Joe Milton's efficiency has been very poor in games against good opponents. Tennessee scored just 20 points against Texas A&M. They scored only 16 points against Florida. Alabama will easily be the best defense the Volunteers have faced. Alabama ranks #1 in overall defense grade at PFF.

Alabama held a very good Ole Miss offense to 10 points at home earlier this year. Alabama is very run heavy this year on offense. Jalen Milroe is inconsistent through the air. Alabama has run the ball on 63% of their plays so far this year.

Tennessee's defense is much improved from a couple years ago. The Volunteers are 5th in the nation in success rate allowed. They are 7th in defensive line yards. I think they could give the Alabama offensive line a tough time here.

This total looks low when you consider what these two teams did last year, but these teams are very different than a year ago. I think the low total is justified.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UTSA Roadrunners got their star quarterback Frank Harris back last Saturday. Harris had been badly banged up earlier this year and tried to play through it. He then had to sit out for a period of time. UTSA's offense finally looked like what we expected last weekend. UTSA put up 49 points and 7.3 yards per play in their win over Temple last weekend. 

UTSA's defense has disappointed this year. The secondary in particular lost a lot of talent from a year ago, and the drop off has been significant. Temple put up 542 yards in that 49-34 loss to UTSA last weekend. 

UAB has been throwing the ball a lot. Zeno is a quality quarterback for the Blazers. UAB ranks 19th in success rate on offense. They are throwing the ball on 53.6% of their offensive plays. UAB hasn't had a game against an FBS opponent finish with less than 58 points total this year. Two of their four against FBS opponents finished with 81 and 84 points.

The UAB defense is extremely weak. They are 130th in success rate allowed. They have allowed 35 points or more in every game against an FBS opponent this season.

A fast track here for two offenses ranking in the top 20 in tempo.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under*  Oregon State is 105th in the nation in tempo. 56.5% of their plays on offense are a run. I think they want to establish the run in this one. Oregon State is a good run defense (3.21 ypc) on the year. Oregon State should at least hold its own against the run of UCLA.

UCLA’s Dante Moore is capable of big things, but Chip Kelly doesn’t look like he fully trusts him yet.. He also has an OLine that isn’t pass protecting well. 110th in pass blocking grade.

I knew the UCLA defensive front was good, but I didn’t expect them to shut down a great passing attack like Washington State last week. Washington State had a 19%!!! Success rate on passing downs last week. UCLA is 1st in the nation in yards per play allowed. They have a 93.2 PFF overall defense grade. 2nd best in the country. UCLA 6th in explosiveness allowed. An excellent defense so far this year.

UCLA hasn’t played a game against an FBS opponent this year that finished with more than 45 total points. 

I’m on the under.

*4 Star Play Under* The Air Force Falcons are 133rd in tempo out of 133 teams in the country. They are running the football on 94% of their offensive plays. With the new clock rules, the Air Force games are really going to move quickly. There aren't many possessions in their games. The Falcons have only faced one good run defense (Sam Houston) and that game was 13-3. 

Wyoming has played against some pretty good offenses this year, and I tend to think the Wyoming defense is a little better than their year to date stats look. Craig Bohl's teams have a history of being very good at defending the triple option as well. 

Andrew Peasley isn't a good quarterback. He just had a fantastic game against Fresno State, but I don't expect to see a repeat of that. Air Force is 4th in yards per play allowed this year. The Falcons are a veteran defense that does not give up big plays.

The last three meetings between these two teams were 20-6, 24-14, and 17-14. I don't see any reason to expect this one to be a higher scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather forecast in this one calls for rain throughout the day on Saturday and sustained winds of 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. That is significant enough to change the way the game is played. 

Buffalo prefers to throw the football, but they are unlikely to be able to throw it downfield much in this weather. Buffalo is averaging just 3.51 ypc (111th in the country). Bowling Green should be able to cheat up in the box to stop the run more here.

Bowling Green on offense is 118th in success rate so far this year. The Falcons are 99th in success rate in the running game. Buffalo's run defense is 51st in success rate allowed on the ground. PFF grades Buffalo as the 31st ranked run defense in the country. 

With the weather and game plans being changed by it, I'll take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams met last year and the final was Troy 10 Army 9. While I don't expect a game that low again, I do think this total is too high.

Army is 131st in pace of play this year. They run the ball on 75% of their plays on offense. Army is going up a Troy defense that is ranked #7 in the country in run defense by PFF. Troy is 12th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. I think Army will find it hard to move the football here.

Troy's offensive line is their biggest weakness. They get too many big negative plays and get behind the sticks. 

The weather is an extra help here too. The forecast calls for half an inch or more of rain during the day at West Point. Winds of 10-12 mph are expected as well. There should be even less of a downfield passing attack from these two teams based on the weather.

Expect a lot of running and the clock to keep ticking here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers offense hasn't been nearly as explosive or consistently good this year. Hendon Hooker was a perfect fit for the offense, and to this point Joe Milton really hasn't been. Milton can make a highlight play once in a while, but his passing efficiency numbers are very poor. He hasn't been able to stretch the field, and now without Bru McCoy the wide receivers aren't nearly as good. Tennessee will want to run the football here, but Texas A&M is 6th in YPC allowed.

Tennessee and Texas A&M have both been excellent at getting into the backfield and creating big negative plays with their front seven. I think it will be tough for the offenses to stay ahead of schedule here. The Volunteers defense is much better than it was a couple years ago. Tennessee ranks 10th in the nation in success rate allowed.

The weather should be a bit of a boost here for the under too. A chance of showers (not much rain) and winds of 17 mph with gusts to 28 mph is the average of four forecasts here. Those kinds of winds are the key. It should help keep the play calling a bit more conservative.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Charlotte’s biggest strength as a team is their defensive line. Biff Poggi is a unique guy and he knows defense. I think Charlotte is better suited to slow down the unique option that Navy is running than most teams. I know Navy isn’t just a triple option team now, but let’s be honest they are definitely still an option team.. They have run the ball on 79% of their offensive plays this year. 

Navy is 123rd out of 133 teams in tempo. With all those running plays and the new clock rules, the clock will keep moving a lot when they have the ball. Even if they score it should take a lot of time off the clock.

Charlotte is running the ball on 58% of their offensive plays. I think they want it to be even higher than that, but they have been down big in some games and had to start throwing it more. Charlotte 115th in tempo. 

Conservative play calling from both teams and I don’t see many big plays from either side. A game that likely gets completed in 3 hours or less. I’ll take the under expecting a 21-17 type game. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles are 132nd out of 133 teams in the country in offensive explosiveness. Kent State's defense isn't good, but they have been burned by big plays quite a bit. Eastern Michigan hasn't proven capable of getting big gainers consistently even against weaker defenses. 

Eastern Michigan is 125th in tempo, and the Eagles run the ball a lot. They use up a bunch of time on their drives. Austin Smith isn't a good passer and the opposing defenses have started to figure out that Eastern Michigan is a weak downfield passing team.

Kent State's offense is awful. The Golden Flashes are 132nd in the nation in yards per play. Kent State is running the ball on nearly 65% of their plays, but they are 131st in rushing play success rate. Eastern Michigan is 15th in explosiveness allowed. The Eagles aren't likely to give up big plays here.

The long range weather forecast calls for showers and sustained winds during this game. I'm going to go ahead and bet the under as I expect a move down during the week. 

Take the under.