*3 Star Play Over* The Tulane Green Wave are led by star running back Tyjae Spears. Spears is averaging 8.9 yards per carry over his last seven games. Tulane's Michael Pratt has a 25/5 touchdown to interception ratio. The Green Wave are far more dynamic on offense than most believe. 

The USC defense has been bad all year. USC is 128th in success rate allowed against the run. The Trojans are 113th against the pass. If they aren't forcing loads of turnovers, they are giving up a bunch of yards and points. 

Tulane's defense has been hurt by the best offenses they have played. They are up against the most talented offense they have played all season here. Tulane's run defense is a particular concern here. USC's offensive line ranks 8th in offensive line yards. Tulane's defense ranks 100th in stuff rate and 118th in havoc. 

Caleb Williams is said to have healed up pretty well during the team's long break between games. USC should be able to put together quick scoring drives against a Tulane defense that is outmanned.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Georgia Bulldogs offense is far better than most give it credit for being. Georgia is 4th in the nation in offensive success rate. The Bulldogs are 7th in yards per play. They have 69 red zone scores in 71 trips into the red zone. In those 71 trips into the red zone, an impressive 48 possessions have ended in a touchdown. 

Ohio State's offense is 9th in the nation in success rate, but they are 2nd in the nation in yards per play. The Buckeyes have 40 plays of 30 yards or more on the season thus far. Ohio State's passing game should do some damage in this game. Georgia is 11th in QBR allowed, but the Bulldogs didn't face many really good passing attacks. LSU put up 505 passing yards on them in the SEC Championship game. The Buckeyes wide receivers are the best in the country, and C.J. Stroud should be able to hit some big gainers here.

Ohio State gave up all kinds of explosive plays against Michigan, and the Buckeyes secondary is vulnerable. Stetson Bennett has improved a lot as a passer, and his ability to keep plays alive with his legs will bother Ohio State here too. Georgia's Brock Bowers is going to have a huge game here.

I think both offenses will have success here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The NC State Wolfpack defense has been great all year. NC State does have a couple opt outs on defense, but the majority of their star studded defense decided to play here. I think NC State is motivated here, and I expect to see a good performance from this defense.

Maryland's offense was good during the season, but the single biggest strength of the Terrapins was their deep group of talented receivers. Three of their top four receivers opted out of this game. The wide receivers are now unproven and that will make life tougher on Taulia Tagovailoa. The Maryland running game wasn't very good during the season, and NC State has a top ten defense against the run. 

The NC State offense hasn't gotten more than 5.0 YPP in a game since their win over UConn way back at the beginning of the season. They were the worst offense in the ACC. I don't expect them to come out and have a lot of success either. 

This should be a sloppy game throughout. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toledo Rockets have the best defense in the MAC. The MAC is a league where there are loads of high scoring shootouts between a lot of teams who have virtually no defense. Toledo is by far and away the best defensive team in the league.  They rank 12th in yards per play allowed on defense. They are 8th in the nation in success rate allowed. 

Liberty was a solid team defensively for much of the year as well. The Flames are 27th in YPP allowed and 10th in success rate allowed. Liberty's defense played poorly late in the season, but I think the players knew Freeze was out the door and now that he is actually gone it is more likely we see a more motivated Liberty team again.

The two offenses have been very inconsistent. Both offensive lines have given up quite a few tackles for loss. 

The weather in Boca Raton calls for 15 mph winds and gusts of 25-30 mph during this game. The current forecast also calls for an 80% chance of rain during this game. 

I like the under some even with a normal weather setup, but if this weather comes to fruition it is a huge positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Louisville Cardinals defense was underrated through the year this year. Louisville finished 40th in YPP allowed. The Cardinals sacked opponents a whopping 42 times on the season. They are an aggressive defense, but they still were a solid 52nd in explosiveness allowed.

Malik Cunningham and Tiyon Evans have both opted out of this game. Cunningham was the guy that made things go for this Cardinals offense. He created big plays out of nothing. Evans was very efficient as well. Tyler Hudson is also not expected to play here.

Louisville is without their head coach from the season as Satterfield goes over to Cincinnati. What a weird spot here in this bowl game.

Cincinnati is also without their coach after Luke Fickell left for Wisconsin. The Bearcats are expected to be without Josh Whyte (TE) and Tre Tucker (WR). Their center also entered the transfer portal. 

Cincinnati's offense didn't end the season playing well. The Bearcats had just 4.9 YPP against Tulane and 5.0 YPP against Temple. 

Fenway Park is the site for this bowl game. The weather here calls for 10-20 mph winds through the game with even a small chance of rain/snow. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* It's Kansas State vs. TCU in the Big 12 Conference Championship on Saturday afternoon at AT&T Stadium.

The first game between these two was a wild one. Kansas State led 28-10 before TCU came storming back and won 38-28. At one point in that game, Kansas State was down to their third string QB (and that didn't go well). Will Howard is expected to get the majority of the playing time here. Howard has been playing great. He has 11 TD's and just 1 interception since the first meeting between these two. Howard threw for 225 yards on only 20 pass attempts in the first meeting with TCU.

Kansas State is averaging 40.2 points per game in their last five games overall. The Wildcats have a big play guy in the backfield in Vaughn and he should have a big game here.

On the other side, TCU is loaded and balanced on offense. Max Duggan is in the Heisman Trophy talk because he has been so consistently tremendous. TCU has been without their star wide receiver (Johnston) of late, but he is expected back and at 100% for this game. 

TCU is 9th in the country in yards per play on offense. They are 5th in the nation in explosiveness. 

On a fast track here I think both offenses will have a lot of success, and there should be big gainers coming from both sides. 

This should be a tight game, and overtime is a possibility as well.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The TCU Horned Frogs are trying to keep their dream season going. TCU has been winning a bunch of close games of late. While their records wouldn't indicate this would be particularly close, Iowa State has an excellent defense.

Iowa State is the best defense in the Big 12. The Cyclones are 12th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Iowa State has played seven straight games that have finished at 45 points total or fewer. Four of those seven games have finished at 34 points total or fewer.

TCU's defense has improved a lot, and this is a well coached unit. Iowa State has the best defense in the Big 12 and the worst offense in the Big 12. Iowa State is 121st in the nation in ypc on the year. 

If TCU does get a decent lead here there isn't much incentive for them to run up the score. They'll have a very tough game next week in the Big 12 title game.

There is 14 mph winds in the forecast here and a slight chance of rain during the game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon State Beavers rank 126th in tempo in the country. They are running the football on nearly 62% of their offensive plays in Pac 12 contests. Oregon State has been far less explosive on offense with Gulbranson at quarterback, but he also doesn't make the big mistakes that Nolan was making. That has made this Oregon State team more of an under team than they were earlier in the year.

Oregon's Bo Nix is banged up with an ankle injury. He only attempted one run last week against Utah. The Utes defense did a great job slowing down Oregon in that game. Oregon State's defense has been much better than Utah's on the whole this season. The Beavers are #1 in the Pac 12 in total defense. 

Though both offenses are solid, they are 97th and 115th in explosiveness on offense. Even the scoring drives should take some time here, and I think both defenses can get some holds in the red zone. 

Take the under in this rivalry game. 

*3 Star Play Under* Troy has the best defense in the Sun Belt. The Trojans excel in not giving up big plays which I think is really key to a lower under. Troy is 10th in yards per play allowed on the season and they are 12th in preventing explosive plays. 

Arkansas State's offense is far less potent than it has been in recent years. The Red Wolves have also drastically slowed down their pace of play. Arkansas State is 79th out of 131 in tempo this year. Troy is even slower at 101st.

The weather here should be a factor too. The forecast calls for 90 percent chance of rain and winds of about 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. 

Both defenses are much better than the offenses in the run game. Expect more running than normal here thanks to the weather.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Marshall Thundering Herd have seen no more than 49 total points scored in their last eight games. In 7 of their last 8, the combined total in the game has finished at 37 points or less. Their game that hit 49 points had two special teams touchdowns.

Marshall is fantastic on the defensive side of the ball. The Thundering Herd rank second in the nation in success rate allowed. They are sixth in yards per play allowed. Georgia State runs the ball on 67% of their offensive plays. Marshall is allowing only 2.96 ypc on the season. Georgia State hasn't shown the ability to throw the ball around very often at all this year.

Marshall's offense is very weak. Cam Fancher is a below average quarterback who doesn't take many shots down the field. The Thundering Herd will try to lean on their running game as well. Marshall ranks 130th out of 131 teams in the nation in offensive explosiveness. They'll run the ball a lot and their drives will take quite a bit of time. While Georgia State isn't great on defense, they do get in the backfield a lot. They are 42nd in defensive havoc caused by the front seven. Marshall's offensive line is 126th in the country in havoc allowed. Marshall should get behind the sticks quite a bit too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Longhorns host the Baylor Bears on Friday in an early game in Austin the day after Thanksgiving. 

Texas has made some big strides on defense this year. The Longhorns are 26th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They are 27th in success rate allowed. Texas has occasionally given up big plays, but Baylor isn't a team that gets a lot of big plays this year with Blake Shapen at quarterback. 

Baylor is coached by a defensive mind in Dave Aranda. The Bears have only allowed 41 plays of 20 yards or more so far this year. They should be able to limit Texas' big plays better than most teams have. 

The weather should play a role in this game too. The current weather forecast calls for half an inch of rain during the game and winds of about 14 mph with gusts above 20 mph. That should make both teams more conservative and those conditions clearly benefit the under in the long run.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats offense is really weak this year. The offensive line has been a major problem. Kentucky has allowed 39 sacks despite having far fewer plays than most teams in the country because of their slow pace. The Wildcats are averaging only 3.29 ypc on the year. They are up against the best run defense in the SEC here.

Kentucky is 131st (slowest in the country) in tempo this year. The Wildcats are trying to run the ball and win with defense. Georgia is 108th in tempo, so the Bulldogs are fine with a slower paced game as well.

Georgia's offense is very good, but the Bulldogs have shown to be willing to slow the game down and be conservative with a lead. I expect them to be playing from ahead by a solid margin here. I think Georgia slows things down even more and runs the football a lot in the second half.

The weather here is a bit of a help for the under too. Sustained winds of 15 mph and gusts to 24 mph are in the forecast during this game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines and Illinois Fighting Illini will square off in Ann Arbor on Saturday afternoon. 

Illinois star running back Chase Brown suffered a fairly major injury late in their loss to Purdue. Brown is the leading rusher in the nation so far this year, and to say an injury to him hurts the Illini is a big understatement. There isn't really an update on his status yet, but I would be surprised if he plays. If he does play here, Brown will be less than 100% and he will be up against an elite rushing defense.

Michigan is 126th out of 131 teams in the country in tempo. The Wolverines are an excellent team, but they are content to run the football and slowly move the ball down the field. Michigan ranks 127th in explosiveness on offense in the country. The Illinois defense is second in the nation in rushing play success rate allowed. 

Michigan's defense is second in the nation in YPC allowed. The Wolverines defense is getting better as the season goes along. In Big Ten play, they are allowing only 2.33 ypc.

The early forecast for this one calls for 20 mph sustained winds with a temperature in the 20's. That could make these teams even more conservative with the play calling.

Take the under. 

*As the weather conditions have become more clear that wind will be fairly significant the under has taken money. I would bet this for 4 stars down to 42 and a 3 star rating down to 40. Thank you* 

*3 Star Play Over* The Alabama run defense has been much weaker in recent weeks. Alabama has shown some weakness especially against mobile quarterbacks and run games that use tempo. Jaxson Dart is mobile enough to do some damage, and we know Ole Miss plays quickly.

Ole Miss is third in the nation in tempo this year. They are playing faster than Tennessee. The Rebels have two star running backs in Judkins and Evans. I think both of them can have some success here. Dart is inconsistent at quarterback, but he has an average depth of target of about 11 yards so he takes a lot of shots down the field. Dart is capable of hitting some big gainers against this Alabama secondary that has been prone to giving up the long ball.

The Alabama offense should be able to move the ball all over this weak Ole Miss defense. Early in the year they looked much improved, but this defense has completely fallen apart against any kind of decent competition. Look at their recent performances against Vanderbilt, Auburn, LSU, and Texas A&M for examples. They gave up 500 yards to LSU. They allowed 34 points against a very questionable Auburn offense. They let a terrible A&M offense score 28 points and roll up 480 yards. Bryce Young should have a huge day here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marshall Thundering Herd are a great under team. Marshall's defense ranks first in the entire country in success rate allowed. This is a really good group of defenders that has no clear weakness. Marshall is second in havoc created by the front seven. The Thundering Herd are allowing only 2.57 ypc on the season. 

Appalachian State prefers to run the ball. The Mountaineers have good running backs, but I think they will have more trouble running it in this game against this great front seven. App State has run the ball on 55.4% of their plays overall this year. 

Marshall's offense is a hot mess. Cam Fancher doesn't look downfield much at all. The Thundering Herd are running the ball on 63% of their plays in Sun Belt action. Though the Marshall run game is decent, opponents are now game planning for the run and loading up the box since Marshall isn't stretching the field.

Marshall has played six straight games that have finished with a total of 37 points or fewer.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini haven't played a game that went over 44 total points all year. They probably will at some point, but I think this will be another low scoring contest.

Purdue has had much lower scoring games on the road under Jeff Brohm than they have when playing at Ross Ade Stadium. The Boilermakers rely heavily on the passing game, and Illinois is first in the nation in opposing QBR allowed. 

Illinois wants to run the football and use up the clock. The Fighting Illini should be able to dictate a slow pace in this one as well.

Early forecasts call for winds of 15-20 mph in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I had been leaning strongly toward an under in this game to begin with, but now the news of AJ Swann being out for Vanderbilt has pushed me to bet the under in this one.

Vanderbilt's offense was helped a lot by Swann's play making ability. Kentucky's defense has been fantastic all year. The Wildcats are 9th in the nation in defensive success rate allowed. 

In SEC play, only game for Kentucky has gone over this total and that was their loss to Tennessee. It only finished at a total of 50 points. The rest of the games have finished with: 42 points, 41 points, 38 points, 44 points, and 38 points. 

The Kentucky offense plays at the slowest tempo of any team in the country. Look for them to run the football a lot here and use up the clock.

The weather could be a bit of a factor here as well. Winds of 15 mph with gusts to 22 mph are in the early forecast.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Troy Trojans have the best defensive line in the Sun Belt. Troy is 13th in the nation in YPC allowed. They are also 18th in explosiveness allowed on defense, so they don't give up big plays very often. 

Louisiana has relied on big plays to score this year. The Ragin' Cajuns are just 112th in the nation in success rate on offense. They don't have the strong running game they have had in recent years. 

The Troy offense isn't good at all. They have been running the ball more lately, but they are averaging only 2.75 ypc. The Louisiana secondary is top 15 in PFF coverage grade rankings. 

Troy's pace of play has slowed down drastically in conference play. They are using more than 30 seconds between snaps and they have slowed their pace down more than 2 seconds compared to their average pace in the non-conference.

Louisiana has seen 4 of its 8 games finish with 38 total points or fewer. Troy has seen 4 of its last 5 games finish at 37 points or fewer.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marshall Thundering Herd are a really good under team. Marshall is a really poor offensive team. They rank 128th out of 131 teams in the country in terms of explosiveness. They also are just 113th in success rate. Marshall has been held to 13 points or fewer in three of their last five contests. 

On the other side, the Marshall defense is tremendous. The Thundering Herd defense is allowing only 4.48 yards per play this year (7th in the country). They rank third in the nation in success rate allowed. Marshall has allowed 16 points or fewer in three of their last five contests. The Thundering Herd rank second in defensive havoc created by the front seven.

Old Dominion's offense has looked good in the Sun Belt action so far, but they have played weak defenses. Arkansas State, Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia State are all much worse than average defenses. Now, they take on the best overall defense in the Sun Belt.

Old Dominion played a couple low scoring games earlier against quality defenses with a poor offense. Their games against Virginia and Virginia Tech stayed well below the number.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers defense has been better than anyone could have possibly expected. Missouri ranks 14th in success rate allowed on defense so far this year. Missouri is 12th in success rate allowed against the run.

Kentucky will want to run the ball as much as possible. In SEC play, Kentucky is running it on nearly 61% of their offensive plays. The Wildcats are also dead last in the nation in tempo (131st out of 131). Kentucky is only averaging 3.31 ypc in SEC action. Their offensive line is much weaker than it was a year ago.

Kentucky's defense has been excellent this year. The Wildcats rank 12th in success rate allowed. Missouri's offense has slowed their tempo drastically in conference play. The Tigers rank only 101st in explosiveness on offense as well.

The long range weather forecast calls for 15 mph winds and a chance of rain here. I like the under even without any help from the weather, but this would be a bonus for the under as well.

I think this one stays low scoring.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather forecast in West Lafayette is pretty wild for this one. A blend of three different forecasts calls for 25 mph sustained winds with gusts of about 30-32 mph during this one. There is also a good chance of rain during the game. The wind is the big deal here, but any rain added in is also a plus.

Iowa is an under team through and through. This Hawkeyes defense is elite. The Hawkeyes offense is awful. Iowa plays at an extremely slow tempo.

How good is the defense? Iowa is YPC allowed on the season. They are 13th in opponent QBR. 

Purdue is 29th in YPC allowed this year. The secondary is a little weak, but Iowa isn't a team that can take advantage of that.

Both teams should be playing far more conservatively if the weather forecast is even close to correct here. Purdue is a great passing team, but their run game averages only 3.45 ypc in Big Ten play. Iowa averages just 2.9 yards per carry.

Two good run defenses and a lot of running clock here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I have kept an eye on this game and the weather report throughout the week. I didn't want to fire on this one too early since I wouldn't want to bet under this number without the help of weather conditions to keep the scoring down. 

Checking from 8 different weather sources, there is a solid consensus now that the winds during this game will be very intense. The National Weather Service, which I consider one of the best weather resources out there, has upped their wind forecast for this game as the week has gone along. They are calling for sustained winds of about 25-28 mph throughout this game with gusts of 45 or even 50 mph. 

That kind of weather changes a game in a big way. Maryland has an explosive passing attack, but if this weather forecast is even close to right it will make Maryland more conservative in their play calling. The Terrapins aren't great at running the football.

Wisconsin's passing attack has occasionally worked of late in the play action passes. Expect less of that here with Maryland loading up the box.

Does the wind matter? The answer is absolutely yes. I ran a query and found the following:

Games with an average wind speed of 20 mph and an average temperature lower than 60 degrees have gone a whopping 52-13 to the under in the last 15 years. That's an 80% win rate. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marshall Thundering Herd have one of the best defenses in the country. Marshall is 9th in YPP Allowed and 3rd in success rate allowed. The Thundering Herd are third in the country in defensive havoc created by the front seven. They should be in the Coastal Carolina backfield quite a bit in this one.

Coastal Carolina has been a high scoring team much of the season, but this is the best defense they have faced on the season. Coastal Carolina moves at a very slow pace. They rank 107th in the nation in tempo. The Chanticleers run on 57.5% of their plays on the season. 

Marshall's offense is a mess. The Thundering Herd are 128th in the nation in explosiveness. They are 126th in passing play success rate. They will try to run it early and often. They are running the ball on 65% of their plays in Sun Belt action. 

This number has been bumped up enough that I have to back the under here. Coastal Carolina carries some risk to unders, but Marshall has been an under machine. I'll count on Marshall to keep this one down.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Illinois is a far better defense than many people have given them credit for being. Ryan Walters is an excellent defensive coordinator, and he has really taken this Illinois team upward with his great defensive schemes.

Illinois hasn't had a game this year above 44 total points. The Fighting Illini are playing a faster paced opponent here, so I understand the total being set higher, but I still like the value on the under in this one. 

Nebraska's offense hasn't played a defense even close to this good so far this year. The Cornhuskers will likely have a hard time getting into rhythm and I don't think we'll see many explosive plays. 

Illinois is primarily about the running game. Chase Brown is really good and he'll get his yards here, but the Nebraska defense has improved quite a bit in run defense in the conference. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oregon Ducks offense has outperformed all expectations so far this year. Kenny Dillingham is doing a tremendous job with this unit. Bo Nix is having a better season than anyone could possibly predict. Oregon ranks 2nd in the nation in success rate. The Ducks are averaging 7.09 yards per play. They are averaging 6.14 ypc (2nd in the country). 

The Cal defense that is usually very strong is much weaker than normal this year. Cal is 117th in the nation in rushing play success rate allowed. Oregon should have a bunch of success running the ball. In Pac 12 play, Cal is allowing 6.08 yards per play.

The Oregon defense isn't as good as it was expected to be. The Ducks are 97th in yards per play allowed. They are 100th in defensive success rate allowed. They are worst against the pass (115th in success rate allowed). Cal should be in passing situations quite a bit in a big underdog role in this game.

Look for Oregon to move the ball easily here and Cal will get enough to put it over.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights defense has been very good this year. Rutgers has seen 4 of its last 5 games finish at 41 points or lower. The only game to go over this total was their meeting with Ohio State. Minnesota is clearly nothing like Ohio State. Rutgers is 10th in YPP allowed on the season. 

As good as the Rutgers defense is, the offense is that bad. Rutgers is 110th in YPP on offense. They have scored 16 points or fewer in four of their last five games. Rutgers has been held to 10, 10, and 13 against Ohio State, Iowa, and Nebraska. 

The Minnesota offense is extremely run heavy. Minnesota is running it on 65% of their offensive plays on the season. Rutgers has been especially strong against the run this year. Tanner Morgan is questionable for Minnesota here as well.

Rutgers is 114th in tempo and Minnesota is 128th. The clock should be rolling here and I don't expect to see many possessions.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas Razorbacks offense is very explosive. They just put up 52 points at BYU. Arkansas is elite in the running game, and that will be a big problem. The Auburn run defense is 97th out of 131 teams in the country in rushing play success rate allowed. Auburn is allowing 5.4 yards per carry in SEC action. KJ Jefferson is good enough in the passing game to keep Auburn honest in the secondary as well. 

Auburn's offense has been far more explosive than most would expect. The Tigers rank 4th in the country in explosiveness. The Tigers have a great weapon in Tank Bigsby. Arkansas has virtually no shot at stopping him. The Razorbacks run defense is 122nd in the country in rushing defense success rate allowed. Ashford has been decent at quarterback for Auburn. He is capable of big plays either way. He could throw a pick six or he could hit a deep pass. Arkansas is 128th in explosiveness allowed.

Arkansas pushes the pace in a big way. The Razorbacks are 16th in pace of play in the country. 

I expect a lot of big plays in a tight high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles defense is a very good unit. Southern Miss is 19th in success rate allowed on defense this year. Southern Miss has given up only 8 plays of 30 yards or more as well, so they are also very good at preventing big plays.

Texas State has slowed their pace of play down drastically this year. The Bobcats have usually been a top 25 tempo team under Spavital, but they are 83rd on the season. Their tempo they have played at in their three Sun Belt games is two seconds slower than they were playing in the non-conference slate as well so they have really shifted things down. 

Texas State is much improved on defense. The Bobcats are 30th at preventing big plays. They are allowing just 3.31 ypc in Sun Belt action. Texas State is a bit weaker in the secondary, but Southern Miss does have a weak passing attack.

Both teams like to play slowly and I think they'll be several long drives that end in field goals here as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I've really been impressed by the Missouri defense in their last few games. In their 3 SEC games they have allowed just 5.21 ypp. Those games were at Auburn, home against Georgia, and at Florida. 

Vanderbilt and Missouri have both slowed their tempo drastically in SEC play. Vanderbilt is using 30.51 seconds between plays on average (more than 2 seconds slower than in non-con action). Missouri is using 28.29 seconds between plays (about 1.5 seconds slower than in non-con action). The tempo should stay very slow in this contest.

The weather here calls for 12 mph winds with gusts of 23 mph during the game. That should encourage a more conservative game plan. Vanderbilt has given up a lot of big plays through the air this year, but the weather and the conservative nature of the Missouri offense should help. The Missouri defense has really been much better against the run in recent games.

A slower pace and some weather helping as well.

Take the under.  

*4 Star Play Under* There is a lot working in the favor of delivering value on the under in this matchup.

James Madison just played a 45-38 shootout against Georgia Southern. GA Southern is an extremely fast paced team who makes every game high scoring. James Madison is having a really good season. The Dukes have a good offense, but they haven't had to play a defense as good as Marshall yet. The Thundering Herd are second in the nation in ypc allowed. James Madison will move it through the air here, but they don't play terribly quickly. If they are playing from the lead late (they probably will be), they have shown to be very conservative and run the ball a lot.

Marshall's offense has been absolutely awful, especially in their last few games. Marshall put up 2.5 YPP against Troy a couple games ago. They then put up just 276 yards and 4.2 YPP against Louisiana last week. They only found the end zone very late in the game when Louisiana had backed off into a prevent defense. 

James Madison is #1 in the nation in YPC allowed. Marshall is all about the run. The Thundering Herd are running the ball on 68.5% of their plays in Sun Belt action so far. I don't expect them to have much success at all.

These two defenses are #2 and #4 in success rate allowed. This total is set too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Ohio Redhawks have changed the way they play now that Aveon Smith is under center. Miami has slowed their tempo down to a crawl. They are using 33 seconds between snaps in the MAC contests. Miami is running the ball on 68.2% of their offensive plays. That plays to the strength of the Western Michigan defense, which ranks 19th at PFF in rushing defense grade. 

Western Michigan's offense is terrible. They haven't found a quarterback who is even decent all season. Miami is beatable through the air, but the Redhawks have been excellent against the run all season. Western Michigan is playing at a below average pace as well.

Miami has had two of their last four games finish at 31 points or lower. The Redhawks should control the ball here and use the clock a bunch. I think this is a sloppy lower scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather here should be a big factor. An average of three major weather forecasting sites is calling for 18-20 mph sustained winds with gusts of 30-35 mph during this contest. That is enough wind to change the way the game is played.

Spencer Sanders was playing banged up against TCU. He is tough and put in a strong effort, but he wasn't nearly as accurate later in the game. It is his throwing arm which is concerning. Oklahoma State's rushing attack is 76th in rushing play success rate. Texas is 10th in rushing play success rate allowed on defense. If Sanders isn't healthy and the wind is blowing this hard, the Oklahoma State offense is in a far less than ideal situation.

The Texas offense is very good. Texas though should have a bit different looking offense with this kind of weather conditions. Ewers isn't likely to be able to air it out deep as much as normal. That helps the Oklahoma State defense a bit. 

Wind games have consistently gone under in the long term especially wind games of this extreme. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Wake Forest's defense has quietly been a lot better this year. New defensive coordinator Brad Lambert has done a great job with improving this unit. Wake Forest is up to 41st in success rate allowed. Here, they are up against a one dimensional Boston College offense.

Boston College ranks dead last in the nation in yards per carry on offense. The Boston College offensive line is awful. They are bad in run blocking and pass protection. I don't expect Phil Jurkovec to have much time to throw it in this one. Wake Forest will bring the heat and get Boston College behind the chains in this contest.

Wake Forest is a good offense, and they do play fast. The Demon Deacons only rank 100th in explosiveness on offense though, so they aren't getting as many big gainers this season. I think Jeff Hafley is a good defensive mind, and the BC defense should have a good scheme ready to at least slow down Wake somewhat. Boston College had a bye week before this game to get prepared.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Ohio Bobcats and Northern Illinois Huskies have the two best quarterbacks in the MAC in Rourke and Lombardi. 

Ohio's passing attack has been fantastic with Rourke leading the way this year. Ohio is averaging 6.39 yards per play overall. They are 31st in the nation in passing play success rate. The Bobcats have 17 plays of 30 yards or more this season. In MAC play, Ohio is first in total offense so far this season. 

Northern Illinois has a terrible pass defense. The Huskies are 129th out of 131 teams in the country in opponent QBR. They have already allowed 18 plays of 30 yards or more. 

Rocky Lombardi is back from injury, and that makes this Northern Illinois offense dangerous. Lombardi is a top 10 quarterback in PFF grade this year. Northern Illinois was good offensively without him, but they are excellent offensively with him on the field. 

Ohio's defense is 130th out of 131 teams in the country in yards per play allowed (7.02). I see no reason to believe they'll stop Northern Illinois in this one.

A back and forth game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UAB Blazers want to run the ball early and often. It is very rare to see a UAB total set this high. UAB had a high total against a terrible Charlotte defense last week, and that game stayed under the total by 11 points. 

UAB ranks 124th out of 131 teams in the country in tempo. The Blazers have ran the ball on 65% of their offensive snaps on the season. Western Kentucky is 22nd in the nation in ypc allowed. I do think UAB will have success running here since W Kentucky hasn't faced good running teams yet, but UAB will take a quite a while to move down the field. If they are settling for some field goals it will help the under a lot.

Western Kentucky's offense is good, but they aren't nearly as good as they were a year ago with Bailey Zappe and company. The Hilltoppers offense ranks 42nd in success rate in the country. UAB is easily the best secondary W Kentucky has played so far this year. UAB is 3rd in opponent QBR allowed.

Both defenses have done well with not giving up big plays. UAB has allowed only 21 plays of 20 yards or more this season. W Kentucky has only allowed 24 plays of 30 yards or more. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green play at a very fast pace. North Texas ranks 26th out of 131 in the nation in overall pace. The Mean Green have a really good rushing attack. In this case that is a good matchup advantage against a LA Tech team that ranks 127th in rushing play success rate and 124th in YPC. 

LA Tech has been throwing the football more lately. Their offense isn't consistently great, but they have great explosiveness. LA Tech has 16 plays of 30 yards or more this year. They are up against a North Texas defense that ranks 111th in YPP allowed. 

North Texas has played in four straight games that have gone over this total. Their games have finished with 86, 85, 78, and 73 points. 

LA Tech has allowed an average of 44.75 points per game against FBS opponents this year. The Bulldogs defense is a major weakness in their new system.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Devin Leary was injured last week in the contest vs. Florida State. Leary hasn't been fantastic by any means this year, but the NC State offense without him looked very rough.

Jack Chambers played for the last 5 minutes of the third quarter and the whole 4th quarter against Florida State. That game was very much up for grabs, and NC State only attempted one pass with him under center. They went into a run only offense and played at a slow pace. They were extremely conservative.

Syracuse ranks 16th in the nation in defensive success rate allowed. I don't expect NC State to have much success here. Leary is doubtful for this game and if he plays he will be less than 100 percent. 

The NC State defense is easily the best defense Syracuse has faced thus far. The Wolfpack have some studs who will be good NFL players in the next couple years. Syracuse ranks 112th out of 131 teams in the country in tempo. 

A slow paced game where both offenses should be fairly conservative. I see the defenses having the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota defense ranks #6 in success rate allowed so far this year. Illinois ranks #2 in success rate allowed. I think these are two top 10 or 15 defenses in the country. 

Minnesota is 129th in tempo. The Golden Gophers run on 65% of their offensive plays. That can lead to some very long drives that kill the clock in a big way. If they aren't scoring touchdowns, but move the ball some it can really help an under. Illinois has a fantastic defensive coordinator in Ryan Walters. I think Walters is one of the top defensive minds in the country, and I expect him to have a good game plan for the Golden Gophers rushing attack.

Illinois will likely be led by backup quarterback Artur Sitkowski in this one. Tommy Devito suffered an ankle injury in the team's last game. The Fighting Illini are going to need to run the ball even more than normal here. I would expect Minnesota to try to load up the box and dare Illinois to beat them through the air.

The long range weather calls for 15-20 mph winds in this game. If that does come to fruition it is just a nice bonus for a game that should be dominated by the defenses.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Penn State Nittany Lions and Michigan Wolverines meet up in Ann Arbor in a huge Big Ten clash on Saturday afternoon. Penn State and Michigan both come into this game unbeaten. 

Penn State comes into this one with the #21 ranked defense in terms of YPP. The Nittany Lions have a really good defensive line that isn't likely to get pushed around by Michigan like most teams will. Penn State has only given up more than 14 points in a game once this year, so this is a very solid defense.

Michigan's defense ranks #4 in the country in yards per play on defense. This team hasn't faced many good offenses though, so that ranking is a bit too high. Still, I don't consider Penn State a really good offense either. Penn State's offensive line is still a major problem, and Michigan should be able to take advantage of that weakness.

Michigan has a new offensive coordinator, and they are playing much slower so far this year. Michigan ranks 119th in the nation in tempo. Penn State is 73rd in tempo so they are a bit slow as well.

This is a high total for two teams playing slowly. Additionally, the long range weather forecast is calling for 20 mph winds during this game. I like the bet even without the weather, but that is a nice bonus if it happens.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Utah State Aggies offense has been really inefficient so far this year, but I don't think they can continue to be this bad in the long run.

Logan Bonner was playing banged up and is now out for the year. Cooper Legas is the new starting quarterback for Utah State. Legas looked pretty good against a solid BYU team last week. Utah State put up 26 points in a losing cause. 

Utah State ranks 15th in the nation in tempo. The Aggies have been unsustainably bad in the red zone. They have only even scored a point of any kind on 9/16 trips into the red zone so far this year. A bunch of interceptions/fumbles in the red zone will do that to you. This will improve in time. 

Air Force is a great offense led by Daniels. The Falcons will be able to run and mix in some explosive throws against a Utah State defense that is worse than a year ago. They really miss Justin Rice at the linebacker spot. Air Force is 6th in success rate on offense, and I expect them to be efficient here.

The weakness of the Air Force defense is their secondary. They haven't faced even a mediocre passing attack this year. They have faced Northern Iowa, Colorado, Wyoming, Nevada, and Navy. Utah State has the best QB and wide receiver talent they have faced.

This game was 49-45 last year. I don't expect that high of a score again, but this total is set too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Ole Miss Rebels are thought of as a run and gun team that would play a bunch of overs. The Rebels do play very fast. They rank third in the nation in tempo. They run the football a lot though. They also are one of the most improved defenses in the country. 

Ole Miss shut down the Kentucky offense last week in a really impressive performance. Kentucky scored only 19 points and this Kentucky team has a very good runner in Rodriguez and a good QB in Levis. 

Vanderbilt has slowed their pace down to a crawl in their last couple games. I think Clark Lea realizes his team is overmatched against their opponents now, and they are going to try to stick around by running it more and playing at a slow pace. 

Ole Miss will run it a bunch and mix in some deep passes from Jaxson Dart. Dart hasn't been efficient through the air so far this season. 

Ole Miss isn't giving up any big plays on defense so far this year. They are 4th in the nation at preventing explosive plays.

Ole Miss will likely be playing from a large lead and a running clock later in the game is a plus.

The under is 11-0 in Ole Miss' last 11 games against an FBS opponent. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Duke Blue Devils have a very good quarterback in Riley Leonard. Leonard is averaging more than six yards per carry. Leonard also has a completion percentage of 72.0% on the season thus far. 

Duke ranks 10th in rushing play success rate in the country. The Blue Devils have a huge edge over the Georgia Tech run defense who ranks 119th in rushing play success rate allowed. Duke is 15th in yards per play in the country. They haven't scored less than 27 points in a game all year. They have scored 30 points or more in all but one game. 

Georgia Tech's game was extremely low scoring last week, but that was at least somewhat thanks to the wind and rain in Pittsburgh. The Yellow Jackets rushing attack impressed me in that game though. GA Tech had 232 rushing yards in that game. Duke's defense is middle of the road in general.

The Yellow Jackets have been abysmal in the red zone, but that should positively regress toward the mean in the long haul. Georgia Tech has scored on only 10 of their 18 trips into the red zone this year. They have just 6 TD's in those 18 trips inside the 20 yard line. 

This is a low total for a game with two questionable defenses. Duke has become an impressive offense with Leonard this year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee offense is very good. They have only played one good defense this year though. That was the Pitt game, where Tennessee only scored 27 in regulation. Wins over Ball State and Akron weren't much of a test. 

LSU has looked pretty good on defense for most of the year. I'm not impressed with the LSU offense though. Jayden Daniels is banged up, but expected to try to play through it here. The best play for the LSU offense has been Jayden Daniels scrambling and making something happen on a busted play. I'm not sure he'll be able to do that as much here. LSU threw for just 85 yards against Auburn last week. 

LSU is likely going to try to slow the pace of this game down. I don't think Brian Kelly wants a shootout against this Volunteers team. 

Both of these teams are run heavy, which will mean a moving clock for much of the game. 

I think this one will be relatively high scoring, but this is a very high total. A 35-24 or 34-28 type game still says under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pitt Panthers rank 126th out of 131 teams in the country in pace of play. Pitt also runs the ball on nearly 62% of their offensive snaps. The Panthers are very happy to run the ball and use up the clock, especially when they have a lead later in the game. Pitt is a huge 24 point favorite in this game against lowly Georgia Tech. They should be in the role of running the ball and using up the clock a bunch in this game.

Georgia Tech's offense has scored 10, 10, and 0 points against their three FBS opponents this year. Those opponents were Clemson, Ole Miss, and UCF. The Yellow Jackets now face a Pitt team with a great defensive line. The Georgia Tech offensive line is in trouble in this one.

The Pitt offense has only been mediocre. They rank 61st in the nation in yards per play. Georgia Tech's defense has at least been very good at preventing explosive plays (20th best in the country).

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I really like the South Alabama defense. Kane Wommack is a tremendous defensive mind. The Jaguars are 29th in the country in yards per play allowed so far this year. They are 19th in YPC allowed. Louisiana is 109th in rushing play success rate on offense. They will try to, but I don't think the Ragin' Cajuns will have success running the football against this Jaguars front. Louisiana has been really inconsistent in the passing game too, and they really haven't played a good secondary yet.

Louisiana's offense ranks only 100th in the nation in yards per play on offense despite facing a schedule of SE Louisiana, E Michigan, Rice, and UL Monroe. That's a terrible schedule of defenses.

The Louisiana defense is 52nd in defensive success rate allowed. They have been really bad in the red zone, but I think that shows there is some regression to the mean coming for them in the red zone. Opponents have scored 10 TD's in 13 trips into the red zone against them.

Neither of these teams really want to play all that fast, and this total is at a point where a 28-20 type game stays under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather report for this game is looking worse as it gets closer. These are two teams who usually rely on the pass very heavily, but that could change some here.

The forecast is calling for rain during the day on Saturday with sustained winds of about 18 mph and gusts to 33 mph. That kind of wind alone can make a large difference, and with rain combined it is even more of a difference maker.

Michigan State has a very good run defense, so if there is increased running in this game it certainly helps the Spartans defense.

Michigan State offensively isn't nearly as efficient when running the ball as they were last year (losing Kenneth Walker makes a big difference for this team), and Maryland should be able to at least slow them down.

With this weather report just 48 hours out, I'm going to take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UConn Huskies rank 107th in the nation in tempo. Even when they are losing, UConn is playing slowly and running the football a lot. UConn is running the football on 63% of their offensive plays on the season. They are playing with a backup quarterback since their clear best starting QB was injured early in the year.

Fresno State will be without star quarterback Jake Haener for this game. Fife is a decent backup, but he is clearly a step down from Haener. The Bulldogs will likely be a bit more conservative on offense with him.

The weather here calls for rain which will be heavy at times during the game. A wind of about 11 or 12 mph and gusts to 20 mph are also a factor. This kind of weather is a clear plus for the under. 

The weather combined with the backup QB's makes me like the under here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* I think Iowa has a top 3 or 4 defense in the country. Iowa's linebackers are elite as always, and their secondary is tremendous once again this year. Iowa was embarrassed defensively by Michigan in the Wolverines 45-3 win in the Big Ten Championship last season. This unit has absolutely been looking forward to this game to try to show they can stop the Michigan offensive attack.

Michigan's offense is playing much slower this year. They have a new offensive coordinator, and Michigan now ranks 109th in tempo in the country. The Wolverines haven't even played a team with a top 50 defense so far this year. They'll be tested in a big way here.

The Iowa offense is one of the worst in the country. They are 128th out of 131 in yards per play. Iowa has a terrible offensive line that is awful in pass protection and weak in run blocking. Spencer Petras is a bad quarterback, and I think Iowa will do their best to try to run the ball a lot here.

The Michigan defense played pretty well against a really good Maryland offense. The Terrapins had only 5.4 ypp on offense in that one. Michigan's defense is a top 6 or 8 defense in the country.

PFF grades these two defenses as the #1 and #6 teams in the country in terms of tackling. They also grade them as the #1 and #2 overall defenses in the country.

The total is low, but it is low for a reason. The pace will be very slow and I don't expect many big plays here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Georgia State Panthers rank top ten in the country in pace. They will push the tempo every time that they have the ball. 

Georgia State wants to run the football as much as they can, which is actually good in this case. Army ranks 129th in rushing play success rate allowed. This is a much weaker Army run defense than they have had in recent seasons. The Panthers should be able to have some success here.

Army's rushing attack is tremendous. Army is actually successfully mixing in a few more passing plays than they have in most recent seasons as well. This offense is first in the nation in explosiveness so far this year. They have a whopping 12 plays of 30 yards or more already this season. Georgia State's defense isn't very good. They have already allowed 74 plays of 10 yards or more this year. Army should break quite a few big gainers in this one.

Army is better offensively and worse defensively than they were a year ago. Georgia State is playing even faster than they did last season.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers defense looked bad last weekend against Ohio State, but the Buckeyes were firing on all cylinders and they are going to make a lot of defenses look bad this year. Wisconsin is still a well coached defense by Jim Leonhard and they should be well prepared for this game.

Illinois is going to want to run the ball and get it to Chase Brown even in the short passing game. Brown is a good back, and they should get yardage here, but I expect it to be in slow long drives rather than explosive plays. Wisconsin has been a good red zone defense for many years now, and I think they can force Illinois to kick field goals.

Wisconsin's offense is all about the running game. They are running on 65% of their plays on offense. The Illinois defense has been fantastic so far this year. Illinois is second in the nation in rushing play success rate allowed. They just shutout a Chattanooga (FCS) team that is actually pretty good. Chattanooga nearly beat Kentucky last year. Illinois also held Virginia to 3 points earlier this year. 

Wisconsin plays at a bottom ten pace in the country, and Illinois should be more than happy to run and try to use up the time as well. This game will have a running clock for much of the time.

Illinois has scored a grand total of 7 points on Wisconsin the last two times they have played them. The Illinois defense has gotten a lot better under Ryan Walters too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Jose State Spartans have a tremendous defensive line. They are great run stuffers. That is really important in a game like this because Western Michigan really wants to run the football as much as possible. Western Michigan's quarterback play has been brutal. They badly miss Eleby and the star receivers they have lost in recent seasons. I don't trust Western Michigan to be able to take advantage of San Jose State's relative weakness in the secondary.

San Jose State's offensive line really holds back their offense. The Spartans rank 127th out of 131 teams in the country in offensive line yards so far this year. They are also 100th in explosiveness, so they aren't getting many big plays. 

Two teams who have weak offensive lines and struggle in 3rd and short situations here. I think this is a game where even when they get into the red zones, it could be field goals instead of touchdowns several times.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves have one of the worst defenses in the country. Arkansas State has allowed a whopping 14 plays of 30 yards or more already this year. They rank 128th out of 131 in explosiveness allowed this season. 

Old Dominion's offensive numbers don't look very good this year, but they have played a good slate of defenses. Virginia is a much improved defense. Virginia Tech is a good defense. East Carolina is a pretty solid defense as well. Arkansas State will easily be the worst defense they have faced. Old Dominion plays at the 23rd fastest tempo of any team in the country. The Monarchs should get more scoring chances here.

Arkansas State is a pretty good offense led by former Florida State quarterback James Blackmon. The Red Wolves are capable of putting up a big number on offense as well, and they showed that last week against Memphis. Old Dominion's defense is a below average defense. Arkansas State's offensive line has struggled in pass protection, but ODU doesn't have a good pass rush.

The weather looks very nice for this game. I think this one is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Ole Miss Rebels are thought of as an over team because of their pace, but the under is actually 9-1 in their last 10 games. Ole Miss runs the football a lot which keeps the clock moving. They have run the ball on 64.1% of their snaps so far this season. 

Ole Miss is also much better on defense than they were in the past. In fact, this year's defense looks to be the best Ole Miss defense in quite a few years. The Rebels haven't played good offenses, but it is still really impressive for them to rank 8th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They shut out Georgia Tech last weekend.

Tulsa's biggest weakness is their offensive line. The Golden Hurricanes have already allowed 10 sacks this year. Ole Miss is going to be in the backfield here. The Rebels have gotten 13 sacks already this year. 

The tempo played here will be quick, but I expect Ole Miss to have the lead and look to be running the clock in the fourth quarter. This is a very high number.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Both of these are teams I'm looking to bet overs with throughout the season when given the opportunity. I like the matchup here. 

Memphis has an explosive offense led by quarterback Seth Henigan. Henigan is an underrated passer who can make something out of nothing at times. The Tigers have enough weapons around him to be very dangerous.

The Memphis defense is weak, especially against the run. North Texas has a strong offensive line. The Mean Green offense has worked nicely all year. Their only issue has been turnovers in key spots that stall out drives. North Texas has 399 yards or more of total offense in every game this year.

Memphis has seen the total get to 72 and 76 points in two of their games already this year. North Texas has seen two of their games get to a total of 85 points. 

Both teams rank in the top 25 in the country in tempo. Both teams rank in the top five in the country in offensive plays of 30 yards or more. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Indiana Hoosiers rank first in the nation in tempo. Indiana is getting a bunch of quick snaps off. The Hoosiers aren't that efficient as an offense, but they do have 10 plays of 30 yards or longer already this season.

Indiana has also been terrible in the red zone so far this year. The Hoosiers have only scored on 10 of 14 trips into the red zone. They have a touchdown on only 6 trips out of 14 in the red zone. Those are among the worst in the country. That is something that should regress in a positive way a bit through the year.

Cincinnati's offense has impressed me this year. They are averaging 7.24 yards per play on the season. The Bearcats already have 11 plays of 30 yards or more. Cincinnati ranks 20th in the nation in offensive explosiveness. Indiana's defense is particularly weak against the pass (106th in passing play success rate allowed) and Cincinnati's passing game has been good this season. The Bearcats have sped up their pace of play as well, ranking 46th out of 131 in terms of tempo.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Rocky Long's defense at New Mexico is a tough one. Rocky Long is one of the best defensive minds in the country. Many coaches have tried to copy his 3-3-5 defense because of how innovative it has been. New Mexico is a tough nosed defense that will make you fight for yards. They don't usually give up big plays either.

New Mexico's offense is awful. The Lobos play at an extremely slow pace and they are very run heavy. So far this year, 65% of their offensive snaps have been running plays. The Lobos should end the season as a bottom ten offense in terms of efficiency, and they'll be bottom 20 in terms of tempo as well.

UTEP has a pretty weak secondary, but they are very good against the run. New Mexico isn't the type of team that will take advantage of the UTEP secondary. Look for UTEP to stuff the run here.

UTEP won 20-13 when these two played last year. UTEP lost their two star receivers Cowing and Garrett and they are clearly worse on offense this season.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves had major problems with giving up big plays last year. They are back at it again this year. Arkansas State has allowed six plays of 40 yards or more on the season. They have serious problems in the secondary. Memphis is a team that should be able to once again take advantage of those issues. 

Memphis put up 55 points in Jonesboro last season. The Tigers rolled up 680 yards of total offense. Memphis had 417 passing yards. Seth Henigan is back, and he's an above average quarterback who isn't afraid to take shots down the field. Memphis was very good on offense last week against Navy, and I think they'll look really good again here.

Arkansas State put up 50 points in their loss to Memphis last year. I don't think they'll score that many here, but the Red Wolves should be able to move the ball too and score enough. James Blackmon is capable of some explosive plays of his own, and I don't rate this Memphis defense very highly.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Cougars offense has been a big disappointment so far this season. With Dana Holgorsen being such a good offensive mind, I find it hard to believe they won't improve through the season. Clayton Tune is a good quarterback, and he has an elite receiver in Tank Dell.

Jalen Daniels and this Kansas offense look tremendous. They have some real talent in the backfield, and Daniels has been underrated for too long now. 

This Houston defense is still pretty good, but they aren't the dominant force they were a year ago. The Kansas defense is a major weakness still. West Virginia put up 42 points in regulation against them last week. 

Look for both teams to do quite a bit of scoring here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Ole Miss has been a good under team of late. Why? The Rebels have been running the ball a lot more than most people realize. Lane Kiffin's team does play quickly, but there is a lot of running clock because they are running the football on nearly 60% of their offensive plays the last couple seasons. 

With a total of 60 or higher, the under is a perfect 7-0 in Ole Miss' last 7 contests. Ole Miss has allowed only 13 points in their first two games. They haven't played great offenses, but the Georgia Tech offense isn't good either. Ole Miss picked up a lot of new transfers on defense, and so far they have been working out.

Georgia Tech has been pretty good against the run so far this year. Ole Miss will get their yards on their ground here, but the Yellow Jackets have at least improved a bit on the run defense.

The Yellow Jackets offense is very short on playmakers. Sims will likely be under a lot of pressure from the Ole Miss defense that will likely blitz quite a bit in this one.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Kansas State talked about possibly playing faster this year, but the Wildcats rank 121st out of 131 in tempo so far this year. Tulane also ranks as slower than the average team. 

Both of these teams like to run the football as much as possible and mix in a deep pass here and there. Those plays can be explosive at times. 

I think the weather forecast here matters quite a bit. There are going to be showers and thunderstorms off and on. More importantly, winds of 17 mph with gusts to 32 mph are in the forecast. This kind of weather should lead to both teams being more conservative. Those explosive plays should be harder to come by.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Virginia Cavaliers hired an offensive coordinator who has decided to change the way they play. Virginia continually tried to run the football last week despite being down big against Illinois. The Cavaliers are no longer the fun uptempo offense that just airs it out with Brennan Armstrong. 

Armstrong is a good quarterback, but there are a couple key problems for the Virginia passing game. First, Virginia's offensive line is one of the three or four worst in the country. Second, they lack playmakers on the outside in a big way. 

Old Dominion ranks 131st in offensive success rate. The Monarchs are a scrappy team, but they aren't efficient at all on offense. Virginia's defense has actually improved under their new defensive coordinator this year. Their biggest improvement has been not allowing big plays on offense.

I see this as a game where both offensive coaches keep it more conservative than many would think. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baylor Bears defeated the BYU Cougars 38-24 last season. Baylor rolled up 534 yards of total offense in that one. BYU put up 409 yards of offense. BYU actually had 7.4 yards per play to 7.1 yards per play for Baylor. The offenses had a big advantage in that game a season ago.

BYU returned all their starters from a year ago on defense. They weren't very good on defense though. I think they will improve some, but I don't think BYU's defense is their strong suit. The Cougars are excellent on the offensive line, and they have an underrated quarterback in Hall. BYU also has two strong receivers on the outside.

Baylor's defense is very strong on the defensive line, but the Baylor linebackers and secondary are clearly down from a year ago. I think BYU can hit some big plays on this Baylor defense.

Baylor's offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes has done a tremendous job putting his quarterbacks in a situation to succeed. Baylor's Blake Shapen is protected by an elite offensive line, and against an average BYU defense I think they can put up points as well.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Mexico State Aggies have a terrible offense. They put up just 91 yards of total offense against Minnesota last week. Yes Minnesota is a good defense, but that is still a terrible showing. Jerry Kill's New Mexico State team wants to play as slowly as possible and run the football a lot. That plays into the strength of the UTEP defense. The UTEP Miners defense is susceptible against great passing attacks, but their defensive front is excellent against the run. I think New Mexico State will have a hard time moving the ball here.

UTEP just gave up a bunch of points against Oklahoma. Oklahoma plays extremely fast, and to say New Mexico State is a huge step down from Oklahoma is a massive understatement. UTEP wants to play slowly as well, and they should get their wish here. I expect them to play from the lead and look to establish the run as much as they can.

This total has bumped up enough where I want to go with the under in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Virginia Tech Hokies are a team I have pegged as a team to look to bet unders with. Brent Pry is a good defensive mind, and the Hokies have a strong secondary as they generally do. The linebacker unit is a major strength as well.

Virginia Tech's offense is limited. The offensive line is one of the worst in the conference, and there aren't good options at wide receiver. Grant Wells hasn't consistently proven he can be that guy at quarterback. The Hokies will likely play at a slightly slower than average pace.

Boston College lost 4 guys from their offensive line from last season. The Eagles offensive line struggled badly in their season opener against Rutgers. Rutgers doesn't have a very good defensive front either. While Jurkovic is definitely a good quarterback, he'll be in a tough spot here. It will be a weak offensive line in front of him and a strong VA Tech secondary against him.

This projects as a game where both offenses struggle to put positive plays together consistently. I would expect them to settle for field goals several times as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Nebraska Cornhuskers play at an extremely quick pace. Nebraska ranks 19th in tempo so far this year. Casey Thompson has been a good fit at quarterback for the Cornhuskers. Nebraska already has 34 plays of 10 yards or more in two games. They now face a very weak Georgia Southern defense that is unlikely to be able to slow them down.

Georgia Southern has decided to run the spread and play very fast under Clay Helton this year. Georgia Southern played very fast last week even into the fourth quarter when they had a big lead against an FCS team. 

The Nebraska defense has been really weak so far this year. Nebraska ranks 68th in the country in yards per play allowed despite playing North Dakota and Northwestern (not a good offense). 

The pure pace of this game makes me think both teams will have a lot of chances for points.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The FIU Panthers won 38-37 over FCS Bryant in their first game. FIU was extremely fortunate to win that game. Bryant put up 6.0 yards per play in that game. It's important to note that it isn't like Bryant is some really good FCS program either. They lost 35-14 last year at Akron and only had 146 yards of total offense in that game. 

FIU has some major problems on their defenses. Bryant had a whopping 8 plays of 20 yards or more in that season opener against FIU. 

FIU's offense played at an ultra fast pace in their season opener. They were snapping it on average at between 18 and 19 seconds between plays. That would have been the fastest in the country last year.

Texas State wants to play really fast under Jake Spavital as well. They finally have a good quarterback to work with in Layne Hatcher. Texas State's offensive line had trouble against Nevada's solid defensive front, but I would expect Hatcher to have a lot more time to throw it in this game.

The Texas State defense has been a major problem for years now and I expect the same again this season. 

A lot of pace for a total set this low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* South Alabama is a good defensive team under Kane Wommack. Wommack did a great job with the Indiana defense, and they have dropped off badly since her left. He's doing a really good job with this South Alabama defense as well.

Central Michigan just had an extremely high scoring game against Oklahoma State, and that certainly gives me some pause, but Oklahoma State played at a lightning fast tempo in that one. Central Michigan also put up most of their offense after Oklahoma State had built a massive lead and had backups in on defense.

I expect this game to play out differently. Look for Central Michigan to try to run the football with star running back Lew Nichols. I think they'll have some success, but South Alabama was good at preventing big plays last year. 

South Alabama's offensive line is a question mark, and the Central Michigan defensive front is the strength of their defense.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Army games can either be extremely low or very high scoring. Why the big differences? When they face triple option attacks, this Army defense is excellent. They know their assignments extremely well and will consistently shut down those triple option teams. On the other hand, when Army takes on teams with unique offensive attacks that can beat them through the air they can really struggle.

Coastal Carolina put up 38 points on Army last week, and that was a Coastal team that brought back Grayson McCall and virtually nothing else on offense. 

Army did put up 7.3 yards per play on offense, and the Black Knights are likely to have success on the ground here against an UTSA team that lost a lot on the defensive end from a year ago. 

UTSA has a great aerial attack led by Frank Harris and a trio of talented receivers. UTSA is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Houston. The Houston defense is much more talented than Army's defense, and UTSA should find a lot more receivers running open in this one.

The defenses in this one are facing two offenses they are not at all accustomed to facing.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Wake Forest Demon Deacons will continue to play fast on offense, even without Sam Hartman at quarterback. Wake Forest put up 44 points and averaged 6.8 yards per play against VMI in week one. They now take on a Vanderbilt defense that just gave up 31 points and 6.5 yards per play against lowly Elon last week. I think the Demon Deacons will get their points here with their playmakers at the skill positions.

Vanderbilt's offense looks much better with Mike Wright running the show this year. Vanderbilt has 14 plays of 20 yards or more in two games, so there is some real explosiveness to the offense. Wright can make things happen with his legs and that really makes a big difference. 

Both offenses should have success in both the ground game and through the air. Neither of these defenses have been good at pressuring the opposing quarterback.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boise State Broncos return 20 of their top 22 tacklers from last year. Andy Avalos is a defensive minded head coach, and I expect this Boise State defense to be very good. Their defensive line is tremendous and their secondary is full of big hitters who have NFL potential. 

Boise State's offense is weak on the offensive line. They averaged just 3.14 yards per carry a year ago. The offensive line is once again the biggest question mark this year. They also lost their star receiver (Shakur) from last year. They lack big play weapons around Hank Bachmeier. 

Oregon State is a well coached offense and they are typically efficient on that side of the ball. I do think the Boise State defense is one of the best they'll see this year. Oregon State prefers to play at a slow pace, and they run the football a lot. That should make their drives take quite a bit of time throughout this contest. 

This is a fairly high total for a game with an excellent defense like Boise State. Totals of 56 or higher in game one are 57.1% to the under since 2006. 

Take the under in this one. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Miami (Ohio) Redhawks have a very good QB in Brett Gabbert. Miami has a good offensive line that gives Gabbert great pass protection most of the time. The Kentucky defense is easily weakest in the secondary. Kentucky will be exposed by good passing attacks this season. Their pass rush is also much weaker than it was a few years ago. Miami should be able to move the ball some here.

Kentucky's offense is very good with Levis leading the way at QB and Rodriguez and a host of really talented RB's in the backfield. The Miami Ohio defense lost a star in Ivan Pace who transferred to Cincinnati. The glaring weakness of the Miami defense is their secondary. Kentucky's Will Levis is better than the quarterbacks Miami is accustomed to facing in MAC play, and I think Kentucky can move the ball in big chunks during this game.

Two passing attacks who should have a big edge and a total that is set pretty low at 51.5. Neither pass rush is very good, so I think the quality quarterbacks will be given time to set their feet and throw a quality ball consistently.

I look for both offenses to be pretty efficient in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon Ducks defense actually disappointed much of last year, and even though they lose Thibodeaux I think this Oregon defense will be better. Dan Lanning is a tremendous defensive mind, and there is a lot of talent on this Oregon defense. The linebackers are superb led by Noah Sewell and Justin Flowe. 

The Georgia offense lost a lot. They lost their two star running backs. They went from a top 2 or 3 RB unit in the country to top 20 or so. That's a big dip. Stetson Bennett is a pretty good QB, but he isn't a star and he also lost Pickens and Burton on the outside. Georgia should be content to play very slowly again this year, and I don't think they'll be terribly efficient here.

The Oregon offense will be led by Bo Nix. Nix is capable of big things occasionally, but he isn't consistent enough The Georgia secondary led by Ringo is amazing, and I would be surprised if Oregon moves it much through the air. Oregon lost their two star RB's from a year ago as well (Dye and Verdell). They are running a completely new offense.

While the Georgia defense is down compared to a year ago, they are still an absolutely elite unit. They should be able to get into the Oregon backfield a lot in this one.

Lanning knows the Georgia offense well and that doesn't hurt either.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Sonny Cumbie is the new head coach at Louisiana Tech. Cumbie has a history of playing very quickly, and he has said to whoever will listen that this LA Tech team will play much faster than they did a year ago. Skip Holtz's LA Tech teams have been pretty conservative offensively in recent seasons. While the running game doesn't look very good, they do have solid pieces at QB and at WR and TE. 

LA Tech is very weak defensively. The linebackers and the secondary are especially weak spots. I would expect the move to a quicker pace on offense to hurt this fairly thin defense if anything. 

Missouri will start Brady Cook at quarterback this year. Cook has some serious talent at wide receiver. Mookie Cooper and Luther Burden should be a tremendous duo on the outside. They should be able to burn the Tech secondary pretty often in this game. The offensive line is a pretty experienced solid group as well.

The Missouri defense is a weak unit overall. The secondary has major questions all over the place. They allowed far too many big plays a year ago. Tech will be playing extremely fast and getting some chances through the air.

Missouri's offense should be very efficient here, and I expect LA Tech to be playing quick enough to get enough points for this one to get past the posted total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Two programs with new coaches and completely different schemes square off in this "Week 0" contest.

Nevada had the second most roster turnover in the country. The Wolf Pack were excellent last year, but about everyone is gone from that team- both the players and coaches. Ken Wilson brings in an offense that will be far more about the running game than the passing game. I expect a slower pace for the Wolf Pack as well. Nevada has a couple quality running backs, but the offensive line is a huge weakness. I would expect Nevada to try to play some lower scoring games this year to make the transition a bit easier.

New Mexico State is now coached by Jerry Kill. The Aggies have a really weak QB room. They will be forced to run the football early and often. Kill has made it clear that this offense will slow down and try to grind away games. I would expect this team to be bottom ten in the country in tempo at a neutral game state. While the defense isn't going to be good, I would expect the biggest improvement here to come in the front seven with the run defense. New Mexico State has improved depth here and Jerry Kill has some good defensive minds on this staff. 

This game should be an ugly one. There is certainly some risk that the defenses are bad enough that the offenses get a little too much scoring going. At the same time, the offenses want to play very slowly and bleed the clock. A ton of question marks here and I'm going to go with this being a sloppy first game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bearcats defense is legitimately elite. Cincinnati has 4 or 5 NFL plays on their defense. The secondary is arguably the best in the country. John Metchie being out hurts Alabama's passing attack a lot. Bryce Young is great and he'll have some success here regardless, but they will have to rely very heavily on Jameson Williams. Expect Cincinnati's secondary to have more success slowing down Alabama than did Georgia.

The Cincinnati Bearcats have been run heavy of late. They'd like to do the same in this game, but I think it will be tough. Alabama can be beaten through the air sometimes, but their run defense is tremendous. The Crimson Tide are allowing only 2.51 ypc and PFF ranks them as the #1 run defense in the country. 

Is Desmond Ridder good enough to air it out and consistently burn Alabama? I don't think it is terribly likely. The guys who have burned this Alabama defense in the past (Watson and Joe Burrow for example) are several levels better than Ridder.

Cincinnati has to want a low scoring battle here and they should play at a slow tempo. Alabama has played very slowly with a lead all year and they are a big favorite.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Pitt Panthers will be without star quarterback Kenny Pickett here. Pickett opted out of this game and will get ready for the NFL Draft. The Panthers will also be without offensive coordinator Mark Whipple who resigned to go to Nebraska to be the OC. Whipple did a great job with this offense and I consider this a big loss. Pickett is clearly a massive loss and the drop in production to Nick Patti is massive at the quarterback spot.
Kenneth Walker III will sit out this game for Michigan State. The Spartans don't really have another game breaking player on their offense, and this is a huge hit. Thorne has been decent in the passing game, but Pitt has an elite defensive line who will pressure him early and often here. Michigan State would prefer to run, but Pitt has a top 10 run defense in the country and Michigan State is without their star running back.
Both of these offenses had actually been much weaker in their last couple games anyways, and now they are without their stars.
Take the under. 

*Note- this has moved down a bit since I selected it. I would still play this for a 4 star rating down to 55.5 and a 3 star rating down to 54. Thank you and good luck.* 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Golden Gophers rank 130th in the country in tempo. No one in the country plays as slow as Minnesota. Minnesota is going to run the football and try to very slowly move the ball down the field. 

The Golden Gophers run on 69.5% of their offensive plays. This is a conservative offense. Minnesota is up against a West Virginia defense that is much better at stopping the run than the pass. The Mountaineers are a solid 48th in rushing play success rate allowed.

The Minnesota defense is 4th in the nation in total yards per game allowed. Minnesota ranks 18th in success rate allowed defensively. The Golden Gophers are solid on all levels on defense. They don't give up big plays either. They have only allowed 35 plays of 20 yards or more all year (3rd best in the country). 

West Virginia star running back Leddie Brown will not play in this game. This puts more pressure on a relatively weak offensive line and a quarterback in Jarrett Doege who has been subpar. 

A lot of running the football and very few big plays here. West Virginia is 93rd in pace as well, so a slow tempo from both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles are very reliant on the passing attack. Eastern Michigan is averaging only 3.4 yards per carry (108th out of 130 teams in the country). The Eagles rely on Ben Bryant to complete a bunch of quick passes and do damage through the air. Liberty's strength on defense is their pass defense and their pass rush. Eastern Michigan has given up 38 sacks (Liberty has 33 sacks too). Liberty ranks 17th in passing play success rate allowed.

Eastern Michigan's defense isn't good, but they do rank 9th in explosive plays allowed. They don't give up many big plays. That will help against Liberty's explosive offense. Liberty has allowed 50 sacks this year, and the Eagles should get to Willis some of the time. Eastern Michigan has done a good job slowing teams down once they get into the red zone as well.

There is rain in the forecast for this one and that could keep things a little more conservative. I think Liberty will do a good job slowing down Eastern Michigan's passing attack especially with help from the weather.

The pace of the game should be fairly slow.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Pitt Panthers offense has been fantastic all year. They rank 19th in the nation in yards per play. Pitt has been led by star quarterback Kenny Pickett. Pickett ranks 2nd in PFF passing grade in the country this year. He should be able to rip apart this Wake Forest defense. Wake Forest is 105th in the nation in defensive success rate allowed. 

How has the Wake Forest defense fared against the top offenses they have played this year? They allowed 34 points against Louisville. They allowed 55 points against N Carolina. They allowed 48 points against a bad Clemson offense. They gave up 56 points to Army. They allowed 42 against NC State. Pitt ranks as the second best offense they have faced this year. 

Wake Forest ranks 4th in tempo in the country. Sam Hartman has had a special year as well. The Demon Deacons should be able to score quite a few on a Pitt defense that isn't nearly as good as they have been in past seasons. Pitt is 78th in opponent QBR and 58th in passing play success rate allowed. Wake Forest has a whopping 39 plays of 30 yards or more on the season.

Two explosive offenses in what should be an exciting back and forth game. Overtime is a possibility in a game that should be tight as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers take on the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns in the Sun Belt Championship on Saturday afternoon. 

The first game between these two got to 54 points, but that was largely because of App State turnovers leading to short fields and quick scores. These are two good under teams on the season. The under is 7-5 in App State's games. The under is 9-3 in Louisiana's games.

Levi Lewis has struggled at QB for Louisiana this year. The App State defense has really been strong at the end of the season. I expect Louisiana to have a conservative game plan and run the football quite a bit here. App State allowed 7.8 points per game in their last four games overall.

Both teams have slowed their tempo down in recent games. I don't see a lot of possessions in this contest. 

The two teams run the ball on 60% and 61% of their offensive plays. A lot of moving clock in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Northwestern Wildcats have a terrible offense this year. Northwestern ranks 112th in the nation in success rate on offense. The Wildcats have been able to break a long play here and there, but that should be very difficult to do against an Illinois defense that has been great at preventing big plays. Illinois is 3rd in the nation in defensive explosiveness allowed. They have a great safety in Kerby Joseph, and Walters has been a great defensive coordinator for the Fighting Illini.

Illinois is very run heavy on offense. Northwestern will give up yards here, but they have been preventing big plays as well. The Wildcats rank 14th in the nation in defensive explosiveness. Illinois has slowed their tempo down as the year has gone on. A crazy 7 of the last 8 games for Illinois have stayed at or below 38 points. Last week, their game went over the total, but Iowa only put up 3.6 ypp and neither team got to 300 yards of total offense. 

Northwestern has scored 14 points or less in all but two of their Big Ten games. In both of the other two they only scored 21 points. 

Illinois should control the tempo and run the ball a lot here to keep the clock moving.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Houston Cougars have a spot in the AAC Title game against Cincinnati. That game is next week and that is the big one for Houston. I wouldn't expect Houston to try to run up the score here, because it really doesn't matter to them. They just want to get a win and get out of here. 

UConn is admittedly very bad on defense. They are even worse on offense though. The Houston defense ranks 6th in the nation in success rate allowed. The Cougars have been dominant on the defensive side of the football.

The weather here should play a role as well. Winds of about 20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph are expected during this contest. That should make both teams more conservative.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are playing for a spot in the ACC Title game. Wake Forest will have a pretty tough challenge against a Boston College team that has played much better with a healthy Phil Jurkovec.

Wake Forest is a very fast paced team. They rank 4th in the nation in tempo. Wake Forest does rely on the passing game heavily. Sam Hartman has been very good this year. He is going up against a Boston College secondary that has been excellent this year though. Boston College ranks 14th in coverage grade at PFF. They have shut down some solid passing attacks this year.

Boston College lacks a dynamic running game. That is important because Wake Forest has been terrible against the run this season. The Eagles should be able to move the ball here, but they aren't likely to get huge chunk plays as some other teams have been able to.

The weather here is important as well. The forecast calls for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph during this game. That is the kind of weather that makes a huge difference. There are strong angles for the under in this situation.

I don't generally want to bet unders with Wake Forest. In this case with them playing for so much and in extreme wind, I'll do so.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams rank 120th (Air Force) and 122nd (UNLV) in pace of play. The tempo will be very slow here.

Air Force runs the ball on 87.4% of their offensive plays. They will be very run heavy again here. UNLV is a bad team, but they have done one thing well this year. UNLV has a good defensive line. They have the 24th ranked run defense in the country according to PFF. UNLV has a top 15 stuff rate in the country. They won't shut down the Air Force triple option, but I think they can do a better job here than most would believe.

The UNLV offense is really bad. The Rebels would prefer to run the ball or throw short passes. The weakness of the Air Force defense is their secondary, but I don't think UNLV can take advantage of that weakness. Air Force has a great pass rush, and UNLV has allowed 36 sacks already this year. Air Force will be in the backfield here.

Air Force has seen 7 of their last 8 games finish regulation with a combined total of 48 points or lower. In fact, 5 of those 8 games finished with a total of 41 points or less. 

Air Force should have the lead burning up the clock late in this game to salt it away and that is a big positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Baylor ranks 108th in the country in tempo. The Bears have played very slowly all year and I would expect the same here. Kansas State ranks 128th in the nation in tempo. The Wildcats want to control the ball and use up the time.

Baylor just played a very low scoring game against Oklahoma which tells you quite a bit about the Bears. Dave Aranda is improving this Baylor defense throughout the course of the season. 

Kansas State's has drastically improved in recent weeks. The Wildcats have given up just 13.0 points per game in their last three contests (TCU, Kansas, and West Virginia). 

Baylor runs the ball on 61% of their offensive plays. Kansas State runs the ball on 59% of their offensive plays. There should be a lot of running clock through this game. 

These are the 2nd and 4th ranked defense in the Big 12. They rank 2nd and 3rd in the Big 12 in rushing defense. Neither passing attack is known for big plays. They do a lot of short passes to keep the defense honest. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini want to run the football early and often. Bret Bielema's team has been running the ball on more than 65% of their offensive plays of late. Iowa allows only 3.00 yards per carry which is 7th best in the country. Illinois has virtually no passing game.

Iowa has played two quarterbacks, but neither one of them are very good. The Illinois defense has improved a lot through the season. This group has a better defensive coaching staff this season.

This is an extremely low total, but it is very low for good reasons. Illinois has played in 7 straight games that have finished under this low total! Iowa has seen 5 of their 10 games this year stay under this very low total.

Both teams play slowly and are conservative on offense. Both defenses rank in the top 15 in the country in preventing big plays. A lot of running clock and the defenses having the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boston College Eagles have Phil Jurkovec back and it makes a world of a difference for this offense. Boston College looked like an offensive machine last week in their win over Georgia Tech. They put up 41 points on 8.9 yards per play. Jurkovec had an average depth of target of more than 18 yards per pass, so they were really being aggressive and taking shots down the field. Zay Flowers is a mismatch for most teams, and I don't think Florida State has an answer for him.

Jordan Travis has been playing well for the Florida State offense. Travis is a good runner, but he has really matured as a passer as well. Travis led Florida State to 424 yards and 31 points last week in a win over Miami. He has been making good decisions with the ball.

Boston College's offensive numbers for the year are misleading since Jurkovec was out for much of the season. This is a completely different offense with him on the field. 

This should be a back and forth game and overtime is even a possibility with a spread of less than a field goal here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Ball State Cardinals host the Central Michigan Chippewas on Wednesday night in the MAC. Both of these teams have at least a shot at the MAC West still (Central Michigan has the better chance). 

Ball State has a pretty good defense at least by MAC standards. Central Michigan is a good run defense and a poor pass defense. 

Ball State doesn't allow big plays which is crucial for an under. Ball State ranks 4th in the nation in defensive explosiveness. Central Michigan has relied heavily on big plays this year, and Ball State should be able to slow those down better than most MAC teams.

Both teams probably will need to rely on the run more than normal in this game. The weather forecast for Muncie on Wednesday night calls for winds of 16 mph with gusts to 22 mph and rain throughout this game.

Both defenses are clearly better against the run than the pass, so their weaknesses might not be exposed as much as normal here thanks to the bad weather.

Take the under. 

*This line is moving down as the weather forecast is being seen by more of the market. I would bet this game down to 58. Thanks and good luck.* 

*3 Star Play Over* The UL Monroe Warhawks host the Arkansas State Red Wolves in Sun Belt action here. This is far from a "good" matchup, but I see value on this one. 

Arkansas State ranks 12th in the nation in tempo. UL Monroe ranks 29th in the nation in tempo. Arkansas State ranks 130th in yards per play allowed (out of 130 teams). UL Monroe ranks 113th out of 130 in yards per play allowed. 

Arkansas State throws the ball on 60% of their offensive plays. UL Monroe ranks 117th in opponent QBR. The Red Wolves should bust some big plays here.

Arkansas State's defense is the worst in the country, and it isn't close. Arkansas State has allowed a ridiculous 13 plays of 60 yards or more this season! Only one other team in the country has allowed more than 7. In fact, 15 teams have allowed zero. Arkansas State is ultra vulnerable against a fast paced offense that has home run possibilities.

Both offenses rank in the top half of the country in explosiveness. Good weather is in the forecast for this one. A fast pace with two weak defenses and very little to play for is usually a good thing for a high scoring contest.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers host the South Alabama Jaguars here. 

South Alabama is expected to be without Jake Bentley at quarterback. Former starter Desmond Trotter will step in and be under center here. The Jaguars haven't been able to run the ball on hardly anyone this year, and I wouldn't expect them to be able to run on Appalachian State here. South Alabama is 104th in the nation in YPC. Their offensive line allows the opponent in the backfield too often.

The Appalachian State offense likes to run the football. The Mountaineers run the ball on nearly 58% of their offensive plays. South Alabama is 19th in the nation in YPC allowed. Chase Brice has been pretty good for Appalachian State this year, but I think this is a game where Appalachian State will be happy to salt this game away with the run game.

The weather here is part of the reason I like the under. Sustained winds of 16 mph with gusts to 28 mph are in the forecast. That is certainly enough to change the way the game is played. A more conservative game script likely means more running clock and less chances for big plays.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Cougars defense ranks 5th in the country in success rate allowed. They are 13th in YPP allowed and that is despite a high scoring contest against an elite SMU offense this past weekend. 

Houston won't be up against anything like that here. USF is 99th in the nation in yards per play on offense. The Bulls try to run the ball as much as possible, but Houston's strength is their run defense. The Cougars are 4th in the nation in yards per carry allowed at just 2.82. 

Houston's offense isn't special. Clayton Tune is more of a game manager and this Houston team ranks 105th in the nation in pace of play. The Cougars should be happy to get a lead and run the block and play conservatively. 

Houston only gave up 355 yards against SMU. The Cougars defense has been dominant much of the year. They should be great again here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Oregon Ducks take on the Washington Huskies in Seattle on Saturday evening. The weather forecast in Seattle is pretty extreme over the next few days. What's in the forecast? A bunch of rain day after day. It's pretty wet in general in Seattle, but this is extreme weather. For a couple days there will be fairly significant winds as well. One of those days is Saturday. Sustained winds of about 18 mph with gusts up to 25 mph are forecast for this one.

I would expect a more conservative game plan from both teams in this one. What will it mean? Likely a bunch of running the football. Both of these teams rank in the top 25 in the country at preventing explosive plays. 

Washington isn't a very good run defense, but they will likely put more people in the box in these conditions. Oregon isn't quite as explosive on the ground without Verdell either.

Washington's ground game isn't good. The Huskies rank 100th in ypc on the season. They are up against an Oregon defense that ranks 29th in ypc allowed this year. 

None of Washington's Pac 12 games have gone over this total in regulation this year. Now we add in some bad weather. 

Take the under here. 

*Update- This line is moving down as more people are seeing the weather forecast here. I would play this for a 4 star rating down to 49 and a 3 star rating down to 47. Thank you.* 

*3 Star Play Under* One of Clemson's ACC games has gone over 45 points in regulation. Which one was it? It was last week's contest against Florida State which should have finished with 43 points but for the laterals backward 40 yards and a touchdown at the final whistle for a terrible beat on the under.

Louisville plays slowly, but relies on a pretty efficient running game to be successful on the offensive end. While Clemson's offense is a mess, the Tigers still have an elite defense. How good are they? Clemson ranks 7th in YPP allowed this year. They are 9th in the country in success rate allowed. I don't think Louisville will have an easy time navigating things against this Clemson front seven.

The Clemson offense has no real identity. The Tigers rank 111th in the nation in yards per play. Louisville's defense has improved in recent weeks and I think the Cardinals can hold Clemson in check as other teams have this season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marshall Thundering Herd and Florida Atlantic Owls both play pretty fast so taking an under here doesn't feel great initially, but once you look at the matchup more closely I think there is value.

Marshall is all about throwing it around. Florida Atlantic's defense ranks 6th best in the country in opponent QBR. The Owls have an elite secondary. Grant Wells has struggled against the top secondaries he has faced so far this year. Marshall's rushing attack isn't very good. 

Florida Atlantic's N'Kosi Perry has been terrible when under pressure this year, and Marshall ranks in the top six in the country in pass rush grade. The Thundering Herd should get a lot of heat on Perry here. 

I see both offenses having some big negative plays and getting behind the sticks. Even if they move the ball down the field, there could be some field goals instead of touchdowns.

The defenses have the upper hand. Winds of about 20 mph during this game are definitely a positive for the under as well. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats have played one game all season that has gone over this posted total. Their opponent in that game was the Oklahoma Sooners. 

Kansas State ranks 4th in the Big 12 in yards per play allowed. They are 30th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. They have been pretty good at preventing explosive plays especially in the running game.

Kansas' offense isn't good at anything, but they are especially bad if you force them to throw the ball. I expect Kansas State to do precisely that in this contest.

Kansas State ranks 127th in the nation in pace of play. Kansas ranks 121st in the nation in pace of play. It is very rare you'll see a posted total set this high in a game with two teams who play this slowly.

Kansas has only allowed 15 plays of 30 yards or more. The Jayhawks will give up yards and points, but it is likely to usually be longer drives from Kansas State that take quite a bit of time.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini have played six straight games that have finished with a total of 38 points or fewer. Illinois has been an under machine. The Fighting Illini defense has improved throughout the season. They have a very good set of safeties to lead the defense. The Illinois offense is still a mess. Peters isn't healthy enough and the offensive line has been disappointing.

Minnesota is on their third string running back. They have still been good running the football, and I do think they'll get their rushing yards here. It's key to point out the pace that Minnesota plays at. Minnesota ranks 129th in the tempo in the country. Only one team is using more time between plays than them and that is Army. 

The Golden Gophers are 14.5 point favorites here. They should have the lead late and that would mean they are using the clock and trying to end the contest. That's a good game script for the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego State Aztecs clearly have a good defense. San Diego State has proven they are good against the run. Their pass defense looks very good by the numbers, but they haven't been tested by anyone. Let's look at the offenses they have faced thus far: New Mexico State (Terrible team in general), Arizona (awful passing attack), Utah (before the switch to Cam Rising), Towson (FCS team), New Mexico (Bottom 15 passing attack in country), San Jose State (with a backup quarterback), and Air Force (they just run it all the time). 

San Diego State has a pretty good pass defense, but I'm not convinced they are as good as the numbers would make you think right now. Fresno State ranks 9th in the nation in passing play success rate. Jake Haener has been tremendous and Jalen Cropper is an elite wide receiver.

Fresno State's run defense has been beaten by some teams this year. San Diego State has been running it better in recent weeks. The Aztecs are accustomed to coasting late in the game and using up the clock. I think Fresno State will score enough that San Diego State will have to keep going until the final whistle here.

A total of 44.5 is extremely low when one of the teams is as good offensively as Fresno State. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles defense is a pretty solid unit. Southern Miss ranks 39th in defensive success rate allowed. They have given up quite a few big plays this year, but Alabama skewed those stats some and they obviously don't play any other team that has talent like that. The Golden Eagles are especially strong against the run.

Southern Miss is atrocious on offense. The Golden Eagles are 129th out of 130 in the country in yards per play. They are averaging only 4.08 ypp even in CUSA play against really weak defenses. They are putting up a miserable 1.56 ypc in CUSA action. The Golden Eagles have scored 32 points in their last 3 games combined. 

Middle Tennessee State is 98th in the country in yards per play on offense. The Blue Raiders have some success throwing the football, but their rushing attack has been very weak. 

MTSU is good in the secondary, but they are weak against the run. Southern Miss hasn't been able to run it against anyone so far this year.

Showers are in the forecast for this game (not heavy), but they could change the game some. The winds are expected to be 12 mph with gusts up to 20 mph during this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Indiana has scored a grand total of 28 points in their four Big Ten contests. It looks like they might be without their top two quarterbacks (Penix and Tuttle) in this one. Against Ohio State, they had to play McCulley and Gremel quite a bit and the offense went nowhere fast. McCulley was 1/6 for 30 yards passing. Gremel was 3/4 for 9 yards passing.

Maryland has been far less dynamic in the passing game without Demas on the field. The Terrapins have shown they are willing to slow the game down and run it more when they have a lead. They are favored in this contest.

Indiana's running game has been non-existent for the last two years. The Hoosiers offensive front is terrible. Maryland has taken on some good offenses in recent weeks and their defensive stats are a bit skewed. In their current state, Indiana is a terrible offensive team. The Hoosiers are still coached by a good defensive mind and I think their defense can improve the rest of the way.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Texas Longhorns have picked up their pace. In their last couple games they have been playing about two seconds per play faster than they did earlier in the season. Texas ranks 12th in the nation in yards per play on the season. Thompson has done a good job at quarterback. Bijan Robinson is the star of the team, and he has been doing some major damage. 

Baylor's Gerry Bohanon has been tremendous at quarterback for the Bears. The Bears offensive line also ranks in the top 5 in the nation at PFF in both pass blocking and run blocking grade. Baylor's offense ranks 3rd in the nation in yards per play. 

Texas' defense ranks 109th in YPP allowed. Baylor ranks 35th in the nation in yards per play. Both teams have given up a lot of big plays this year. Baylor has already allowed 32 plays of 20 yards or more on the season. Texas has already allowed 38 plays of 20 yards or more on the season. These offenses should be able to bust big plays here.

Baylor's contests against West Virginia and BYU topped this total. Oklahoma State slowed down both of these offenses, but that is the best defense in the Big 12 and neither of these defenses are on that level.

I made this total several points higher.

Take the over.