*3 Star Play Under* The Jacksonville State Gamecocks run the ball at a very high rate. Jacksonville State has had trouble finishing drives. They are 128th in the nation in red zone touchdown rate. 

Kennesaw State's offense is way down this year. The Owls have Rickie Collins at quarterback, who transferred in from Syracuse. Collins is very inconsistent and the Owls are leaning on the run game. Kennesaw State torched West Georgia (FCS) in game one, and they haven't scored more than 17 points in a game since. 

Jacksonville State has seen their four games against FBS opponents be a total of 40 points, 56 points (48 before OT), 58 points, and 36 points. 

Kennesaw State has had 48 points against a good GA State offense, 51 points against Tennessee, and 31 points total against Arkansas State. 

I think this total should have been a few points lower.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arkansas State Red Wolves are playing completely different than they did a year ago. The oddsmakers haven't adjusted enough yet. With Trey Owens and a completely new offense they are running the football far more, and they are playing much slower. This was a top 10 tempo team in recent years. They are 11th slowest right now out of 138 teams. A drastic change.

Louisiana had a high scoring game against USC, but the rest of their games have been a slower pace and grind it out type affairs. I think they prefer to run the ball and use up the clock. Louisiana is bottom 20 nationally in tempo.

A lot of running clock here.

Take the under. 

*I would take this one as low as 47. Thanks and good luck*

*4 Star Play Under* The TCU Horned Frogs are strong defensively especially up front. BYU is a run heavy offense, and I think TCU can at least make them work hard to score here.

BYU is bottom 15 nationally in tempo. TCU is below average in tempo. The Horned Frogs are running the football a lot more now with their new OC Sammis. 

TCU is first nationally in explosiveness allowed. They are third in PPA/rush allowed. That should make this a tough matchup for the BYU ground game.

TCU hasn't shown much on offense against their better opponents this year. I don't trust their passing attack, and the BYU defensive front seven is very strong.

Take the under here. 

*4 star play as low as 49.5 and 3 star play down to 47. Thank you.* 

*3 Star Play Over* These are two awful defenses. South Alabama is 131st in success rate allowed. ULM is 137th in success rate allowed. South Alabama is 134th in explosiveness allowed. ULM is 122nd in explosiveness allowed.

South Alabama has been running the football really well of late. They have two good quarterbacks. I don't know if Davenport will be back for this one, but if not we should see a lot of running the football. ULM is 135th out of 138 teams in PPA/rush allowed this year. ULM is 132nd in offensive line yards allowed. South Alabama is averaging 75.5 plays per game on offense, and that run game should find a lot of running room.

ULM got Aidan Armenta back last game and that does help them some. ULM is 46th in rushing play success rate and 75th in PPA/rush. South Alabama is 138th in PPA/rush allowed. The Jaguars are getting torched on the ground by everyone this season. 

ULM has seen three of their four games reach 62 points or higher. South Alabama's last two games have been 77 and 66 points total. They haven't had a game lower than 52 this season.

I think this is a sneaky over.

*I would bet this as high as 58.5 points. Thank you* 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Colorado State Rams are allowing 7.4 yards per play this season. That is bottom five in the country. Oregon State just went up against UTEP who couldn't score in the red zone and looked pretty pathetic in general on offense, but Colorado State's offense is far better and they move much faster.

Colorado State is top 15 nationally in tempo. Oregon State is top 30 in tempo. This game will have a bunch of possessions. It has the makings of a track meet.

Oregon State's Atkinson is a really good quarterback, and this team throws the ball on more than 70% of their offensive plays in a neutral game state. They are looking to throw it around. They should have a lot of success.

Oregon State's defense isn't as good as it looked last week.

Take the over. 

*This is a play as high as 64. Thanks and good luck*

*3 Star Play Under* The Cal Golden Bears offense is a mess. JKS is a talented quarterback, but the play calling here has been horrible. The weapons around him are also weaker than a year ago. The Cal offense is 129th in PPA/rush. They are 104th in PPA/pass. They are 129th in the country in explosiveness. 

UNLV is 90th in PPA/pass on offense. They are 92nd in PPA/rush. The Cal defense is really good in the secondary. They have great safeties patrolling the middle of the field. Jackson Arnold hasn't been very good in this UNLV offense.

These two teams are 123rd and 127th in points per opportunity on offense. They aren't doing a good job cashing in on their red zone trips. 

UNLV has played four games this year and all four have stayed under this total. This is despite them playing two "over" type teams in North Texas and Memphis. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Florida Gators have scored at least 44 points in all four of their games. I don't think they'll score that many in this one, but I do think they'll put up a pretty big number. Buster Faulkner might be the best offensive coordinator in the country. Baugh is an electric running back that is still underrated by many people. Philo has been playing well with all the talent around him. 

Missouri lost a lot from last year's defense. The Tigers are just 76th in yards per pass attempt allowed (Florida is 6th offensively here). They are also 74th in rushing explosiveness allowed, and I think Baugh could have a big day here.

Missouri's offense has worked pretty well through the air with Simmons at quarterback. Missouri is 21st in PPA/pass this year. Florida is just 68th in PPA/pass allowed. The Tigers are an underdog here, and I think they could put up quite a few yards and points in catch up mode.

The weather here looks perfect here with a mild temperature and very little wind.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Oregon State Beavers passing attack has been tremendous so far this season. Braden Atkinson has been airing it out early and often. Oregon State is easily first in the nation in pass play rate. They are going to throw it a lot here, and with the matchup they have against the UTEP secondary I think it should go really well.

UTEP is 138th (out of 138 teams) in pass play success rate allowed. They are 136th in PPA/pass allowed. They are 128th in QBR allowed. The Miners secondary is their single biggest weakness as a team. That isn't a good weakness to have going against this Oregon State offense.

Oregon State is top 25 in the nation in tempo. They'll be pushing the pace throughout in this one. UTEP has slowed the pace down against Oklahoma and Michigan, but in the past this team has liked to play quickly. I think that was likely a game plan for playing those much stronger teams. Scotty Walden's philosophy in general has been to play fast. I think they'll get back to that.

UTEP is 61st in PPA/pass on offense. They have found a little bit in the passing game. Oregon State is just 87th in PPA/pass allowed. Oregon State is 103rd in QBR allowed this season.

Oregon State should pile up the points and UTEP should do plenty to get us this one over the total.

Take the over. 

*I would play this to 57 at 4 stars and up to 59 for 3 stars. Thanks and good luck*

*3 Star Play Over* The South Carolina Gamecocks are top 20 in pace of play. Briles and this system are always going to try to push the issue. 

Alabama's pass defense has disappointed so far this year. The Crimson Tide are 121st in yards per pass attempt allowed and 132nd nationally in passing explosiveness allowed. LaNorris Sellers is inconsistent and so are his wide receivers, but they should have some chances for big gainers at times here. 

Russell has had a nice start to his career at Alabama. He'll go up against a South Carolina defense that is 120th in PPA/pass allowed. They are also 104th in havoc created. Alabama has been excellent in points per scoring opportunity (5 points per opportunity) and S Carolina has struggled in red zone defense. Look for the Crimson Tide to cash in on their red zone trips. 

Alabama has scored 45 points or more in each of their contests this season. They might not score quite that many here, but I think it will be a lot. The pace that S Carolina plays at will give them chances too.

Take the over. 

*I would bet this as high as 55.5. Thanks and good luck*

*3 Star Play Under* The Arkansas State Red Wolves are playing completely differently than they have in recent seasons. Arkansas State went from one of the fastest tempos in the nation to a very slow pace. The Red Wolves are 127th out of 138 teams in tempo.

Kennesaw State's offense is far weaker this year with Rickie Collins at quarterback. Kennesaw has lost their explosiveness compared to a year ago. The Owls are unlikely to hit the big plays here, but they should run the ball quite a bit.

Arkansas State wants to run as well. With the clock moving and the two teams typically not breaking big plays I see value on the low side here.

Take the under. 

*I would play this as low as 52. Thank you*

*3 Star Play Under* The Old Dominion Monarchs are 135th in the nation in success rate on offense. Old Dominion is dead last on offense in havoc allowed. The Monarchs get behind the sticks far too often. 

Old Dominion is 15th in the nation in success rate allowed. The Monarchs do have a very strong defense. 

James Madison's offense put up just 20 points on Liberty and 26 on San Diego State. Their offensive stats are skewed by what they did on their FCS opponent (87 points). 

This is a massive game for both teams. They both have aspirations of being the top team in the Sun Belt. I think the defenses have the upper hand here.

Take the under. 

*I would take this as low as 47.5. Thank you*

*3 Star Play Over* The Auburn Tigers are first in the nation in tempo. Alex Golesh's team is absolutely flying on offense. They put up 39 points on Florida yesterday. The Auburn defense was also torched for 44 points and 6.5 yards per play by Florida.

Auburn's first game against Baylor should have been higher scoring and that has kept their totals down a bit too much in the market.

Vanderbilt is better in the passing game with Curtis at quarterback. The Auburn pass defense is 103rd in PPA/pass allowed. Vanderbilt is 25th in passing explosiveness, and Auburn is 125th in passing explosiveness allowed.

The Auburn dual threat QB Byrum Brown should break some big gainers against a questionable Vanderbilt defense too.

Take the over. 

*I would play this up to 56. Thank you. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wyoming Cowboys offense has been terrible this season. They scored 10 and 13 points on their two FBS opponents. They only scored 21 points against Northern Colorado (FCS). Wyoming is 130th nationally in explosiveness on offense. Wyoming is bottom 30 in the nation in tempo as well.

Hawaii's offense is a mess right now too. Micah Alejado was last seen in a sling. He has been taking all sorts of hard hits this season with a terrible offensive line in front of him. Hawaii is 121st in success rate on offense. They are up against a Wyoming defense that is 35th best nationally in explosiveness allowed.

The wind is pretty heavy in Laramie on a frequent basis this time of the year. The current forecast calls for winds around 18 mph during this game which could make the two teams more conservative and make big plays tough to come by.

Take the under. 

*I would play this as low as 43. Thanks and good luck*

*3 Star Play Over* The Notre Dame offense is going to be very good this year. I think their stats are a bit skewed negatively on offense so far this season. Notre Dame just played against a pretty good Michigan State defense in a bad weather game. It was rainy and windy in that one and that changed the way the game was played. I also think the Wisconsin defense is a good unit and the Fighting Irish played them in week one. They had one easy opponent (Rice) and in that one they put up 42 points in the first half and won 52-0. Rice has no offense, but Notre Dame gashed the Rice defense.

Purdue is clearly much improved on offense. I really like what I've seen out of Ryan Browne. He is making good decisions and the Boilermakers are 12th in the nation in PPA/pass so far this season. 

Notre Dame's offense is second nationally in yards per pass attempt. Purdue is 129th in yards per pass attempt allowed. This Boilermakers defense in general is a huge weakness. They are 131st in explosiveness allowed. I expect Carr and Notre Dame to hit a lot of big plays in this one. 

Last year's game was Notre Dame 56-30 over Purdue. I don't think Purdue will score 30 again here, but this Purdue offense is pretty good. Purdue's defense will be overmatched by the Notre Dame offense.

Take the over. 

*I would play this as high as 59.5. Thanks and good luck*

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors host the New Haven Chargers on Saturday afternoon. This is the type of game I bet often in college basketball often, but it is also one where I'm going to take a wager in college football this time around.

The weather report is the reason here. North Andover's forecast calls for heavy rains on Saturday from the Noreaster. The winds will be heavy as well. More than an inch of rain during the day on Saturday with sustained winds of 22 mph and gusts to 45 mph. These are really nasty conditions where it should be tough to play the game in any normal sort of game plan.

Both of these teams have already had several low scoring games this year, and this one should stay lower because of the elements.

Take the under. 

*I would play this as low as 42.5. Thanks and good luck*

*3 Star Play Under* I've actually been pretty impressed with the San Jose State defense so far this year. They didn't give up too many explosives to an excellent USC offense. They gave up only 4.13 yards per play against Eastern Michigan on the road as well. 

Fresno State is an excellent defense. The Bulldogs have one of the best G6 secondaries in the country. San Jose State wants to throw the ball around with Weaver. I think Fresno State is more built to slow that down than the normal team.

Fresno State will want to run the ball early and often here. The Bulldogs also want to control the tempo and keep this one lower scoring.

The game last year between these two was only higher scoring (55 points total) because there were loads of turnovers that led to short fields.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The South Dakota Coyotes are averaging 46 points per game so far this year. That is 6th best in FCS. South Dakota has a really good ground game and a quarterback who does have the potential to air it out when needed. 

Boise State just played a 38-20 game against Memphis. The Broncos won that game, but their defense was absolutely gashed in that game. Memphis averaged a whopping 10.0 yards per play. The lack of late down success and a key turnover really held Memphis back from scoring. That game should have been much higher than 38-20. 

Boise State's offense should be too much for South Dakota to handle. Boise State put up 578 yards of total offense on Memphis last week. Their offensive line has been great thus far. 

South Dakota has allowed at least 20 points in all three of their FCS games thus far. They allowed 55 points in their loss to Iowa State last year. I think their defense will be pushed around here.

Take the over. 

*Note I would take this as high as 59. Thanks and good luck.

*3 Star Play Under* The Arkansas State Red Wolves have completely changed the way they play this year. They talked in the preseason about slowing the pace down and controlling the clock. So far this year, they are the 5th slowest paced team in the country (138 teams). They were 13th quickest in the nation last year. 

TCU is also changing their style of play. The Horned Frogs have a new OC and they want to run the football more and slow things down a bit. They are now slightly slower than the national average in tempo after consistently being a fast paced team under Sonny Dykes in the past.

TCU's defensive front is their strength. I don't think Arkansas State can have much success running the football here.

TCU rolled up a big number on Grambling last week, but this offense still has plenty to prove.

With the new slower tempo from them both, I think this number is set too high.

Take the under. 

*I would play this as low as 55. Thank you and good luck*

*3 Star Play Over* The UCF Knights talked a lot about playing at a faster pace once again this year. UCF is coming off an ugly 12-7 loss to Pitt last Saturday. The weather was terrible in that game and it definitely changed the way that game went. Pitt is a solid front seven on defense too, and they got into the backfield a lot.

In this game, UCF is playing against an inferior opponent that has a very big specific weakness on the defensive front seven. UCF's Alonza Barnett should have far more time to throw in this game. The ground game for UCF will have more success here as well. 

Georgia State's Cameran Brown is a good quarterback, and McCreary has come on at running back. The Panthers still have their clear problems on defense, but this Georgia State offense is above average. I think they can do some damage against a UCF defense that isn't dominant.

Scott Frost's teams have been good at running up the score against weaker opponents leading to overs. Frost's teams have been favored by 17 or more at home on 10 occasions, 7 of those 10 have gone over the total and the average margin for the whole 10 game sample size is +9.25 points over the posted total.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Old Dominion and East Carolina both lost their star quarterbacks from a year ago, and these teams look a whole lot different on offense now. 

Old Dominion has slowed down to playing a slower than average pace after playing very fast the last few seasons. The Monarchs have a veteran defense that should be elite in the front seven against other Group of 6 teams. They just don't have the offense to win shootouts on a regular basis anymore.

East Carolina could only muster 24 points against a below average App State defense last week. The Pirates are still better than average on defense, but their high flying passing attack has been significantly weakened without Houser. 

I had this game circled in the preseason to bet toward the under. I haven't seen anything in the first couple games from these two that makes me want to change my mind.

A hard fought defensive battle is what I expect.

Take the under. 

*I would bet this as low as 47.5. Thank you*

*4 Star Play Under* The Ball State Cardinals want to play slowly and keep games lower scoring. They don't have the offensive firepower to get into shootouts. 

Liberty's offense was broken last year. It has been awful again so far this year. Chadwell seems to not be able to find a quarterback to run his unique system. Liberty struggled and only scored 24 points on FCS Gardner Webb yesterday. Liberty could only muster 13 points against JMU in the season opener.

Tempo wise both teams are crawling. This should be a game that doesn't have many possessions. 

Liberty's defense is strong enough in the trenches to hold down the Ball State running attack. A lot of rushing attempts in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The latest forecasts here make this game looked interesting for Saturday. There is rain in the forecast for Ann Arbor on Saturday, and the latest forecasts are upping the rainfall amounts. It looks like heavier rain is possible during this game. Importantly, the wind forecasts keep moving up as well. The expectations now are for sustained winds of 12 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. This kind of rain and wind can really change the game.

UTEP was unable to score a point against Oklahoma in game one. The Miners have slowed their tempo down to where they are bottom 50 in the nation in tempo. 

Michigan is bottom 25 in the nation in tempo so far this year. The Wolverines should be run heavy here and keep things vanilla before they play a really good defense (Iowa) next week.

My number was already below the posted total and with the added factor of rain and wind I am firing here.

Take the under. 

*I would play this as low as 47*

*3 Star Play Under* This is not a game I would have expected to play under the total in the preseason, but here we are. North Texas is 125th out of 138 teams in the country in tempo. The Mean Green are playing very slowly, and they want to run the football a lot. 

Texas State is 23rd in the nation in tempo. The Bobcats certainly prefer to play quickly. Beau Sparks is the star wide receiver for Texas State. He missed last game and is a game time decision for this one. Sample is another key wide receiver and he is questionable as well.

Texas State's passing attack wasn't as good as normal against a poor pass defense in UTSA last week. Texas State threw the ball 30 times for just 192 yards. That game was 31-26 and it was a game of two strong offenses who like to play quickly. Here, we have a total set higher than that and one of the teams is looking to stall and control the football.

This is a really high total in today's college football, and I'm going to go under this high total.

Take the under. 

*I would play this one as low as 61. Thanks and good luck*

*3 Star Play Under* I expect Sac State to struggle to score this season. They have way too many FCS guys at the skill positions and a below average offensive line. 

Fresno State is going to play very slowly and look to run the football with Luke at running back. The new quarterback looked terrible against USC. He will likely look better here against the Sac State defense, but Entz is a run first coach who doesn't typically try to run up the score as much as the average guy.

Both teams should be run heavy here. Fresno is the better team and they should have some long time consuming drives.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* When these two teams met last year, Navy put up 503 yards of total offense and Florida Atlantic gained 444 total yards. The final was 42-32 Navy. 

Navy's offense is down some from last year in the passing game, but they will still be very good on the ground. Florida Atlantic has struggled to stop the run in recent seasons, and I need to see them prove it before I trust them to stop the run.

The Florida Atlantic Owls passing attack should be better with another year in Kittley's offensive system under their belts. VeltKamp is capable of slinging it around and Easton Messer is a good second option at QB. 

The Navy defense is weakest in the secondary. Navy was even beaten through the air multiple times last week by Towson. Navy is very vulnerable to pass heavy teams. FAU definitely will be that all season.

Florida Atlantic is the fastest paced team in the country, and they'll make sure there are plenty of possessions in this game.

Both offenses have the upper hand.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Nico Iamaleava played well for much of the game against Cal this past weekend. He was banged up late in the game, but Bob Chesney said in the postgame that he was fine and just cramped up some. Nico did come back in to take the final snap in the game. 

San Diego State gave up 375 yards of total offense to Portland State. Aurich is gone and a bunch of the top San Diego State defensive talent went with him. I expect the Aztecs to be much weaker on defense this season. 

San Diego State's offense was playing quite a bit quicker last night, and I look for that to continue. Sean Lewis wants to speed up the pace. Sutton is a good runner.

The UCLA running backs are dynamic. I really like Knight as a big playmaker in the backfield. He is really shifty. Anthony Woods averaged 14.8 yards per carry against Cal and he's a star as well. UCLA should pile up the rushing yards here.

Take the over. 

*I would play this for 4 stars up to 53 and for 3 stars higher than that* 

*4 Star Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders offense got much better late last year when Gagliano took over at quarterback. The passing game started surprising people. They put up 8.0 yards per play against W Kentucky late last year. MTSU just put up 8.3 yards per play on Murray State in game one this season. Murray State is a bad team, but MTSU has struggled with FCS foes in the past. The Blue Raiders offense is improved.

Marshall looked terrible in week one against Penn State. The Thundering Herd were a no show in that game. I think it will look a lot different for the Marshall offense against a very weak MTSU defense. The Blue Raiders secondary will be one of the worst in the country. Carlos Del Rio-Wilson has good receivers and Marshall's passing attack should look good in this one. 

Marshall will be playing fast with Rob Smith as their offensive coordinator. 

Last year when these two met the final was 42-28 Marshall. MTSU had 7.8 YPP and Marshall had 6.3 YPP. Marshall had 448 total yards of offense. 

Lower scoring games in the first game brought this total down. I think that created value for us.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Cal Golden Bears played at a much faster pace in game one. Cal was at a very quick 23.5 seconds per play in their opening game loss to UCLA. JKS is a really good quarterback. He was up against a UCLA defense that I think is much improved. I do expect him to have success against many secondaries.

Syracuse is much better offensively. They have a star quarterback back in Angeli. Last year when he was hurt the productivity was way down. The Orange want to play faster and their RPO style offense is likely to work well against a Cal defense that I believe is pretty weak. 

Two teams with very good quarterbacks playing in a dome on the fast track. I think this total is set too low.

Take the over. 

*I would play this for 4 stars up to 57 and 3 stars anything higher. Thanks and good luck*

*3 Star Play Under* The BYU Cougars lost a bunch of talent at wide receiver. I expect BYU to be even more run heavy this season with Martin and a strong offensive line. Bachmeier is good, but isn't the type of guy that will drop back and throw the deep ball a lot. I think BYU's offense will be successful this year, but I don't think it will be all that explosive. BYU also plays at a bottom ten tempo. A lot of time consuming drives. 

Arizona's offense has a good quarterback in Fifita, but the weapons around him have gotten much worse. The Arizona offensive line is likely to have trouble controlling the line of scrimmage here too. The BYU defensive front and linebackers are excellent. I think the Cougars will be in the backfield a lot in this game.

The weather could help out here too. The average of three forecasts is calling for 19 mph winds with gusts to 30 mph during this game. That would make the two offenses more conservative and help the defenses stack up the box to stop the run.

Take the under. 

*I would bet this as low as 46. Thanks and good luck*

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego State Aztecs slowed their pace down last year to win with their strong defense. A bunch of the key San Diego State defenders from a year ago either left to go to Nebraska with their old defensive coordinator or graduated.

Sean Lewis at his heart is a fast tempo offensive coach. He has talked about getting the pace back this season, and this is a great chance for them to do just that. Portland State is a really bad defensive squad. They allowed 69 points in a 69-0 loss against BYU last season. The Portland State run defense is abysmal. 

Portland State's offense has shown some signs of life, and they definitely prefer to play fast. I think they can do just enough here.

San Diego State should throttle down and they should hang a big number. I think this team is being priced too much like last year's team.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Troy Trojans have a new offensive coordinator this season. Adam Austin comes in from Tarleton State where the team played at a very fast tempo and was excellent offensively. Troy has been conditioning a bunch in the offseason to try to play at a fast pace and wear down opposing defenses. The Trojans have also been practicing with a shorter play clock to make snapping the ball sooner a consistent thing. 

Goose Crowder is a really good quarterback. He has nice touch on the deep ball, and makes good decisions with the ball. The Sam Houston defense is a major weakness, and I think Troy can hang a big number here. 

Troy's defense lost all 3 of their starters at linebacker. The Trojans aren't bad defensively, but they will be down some.

Sam Houston's offense should improve some this season. McCaskill is a really talented back, and they should have some stability at the quarterback spot. Longo has more of the guys he wants on this offense than he did a year ago. They will also play quickly here, so there should be a lot of possessions in this game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Memphis Tigers have a dominant defensive front. They overwhelmed UNLV late in their first game. Memphis is definitely more complete on the defensive end of the field. The offense still has question marks with youth and inexperience. They hit a few big plays against UNLV, but they were inconsistent.

Arkansas State brought in a new offensive coordinator from Vanderbilt (Altman). Altman has been a run heavy guy who likes to play at a very slow pace. I think he will slow things down quite a bit for the Red Wolves. Raynor is gone at quarterback too. Arkansas State is likely to try to be very run heavy here while the game is competitive. They should be able to shorten the game somewhat.

At a key number here, I like the under with the Memphis very strong defensive line and Arkansas State slowing the pace down.

Take the under. 

*This line has moved some during the week. I would play this as low as the key number of 52. Thanks and good luck*

*3 Star Play Over* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights have a star receiver in KJ Duff. There is no one on this UMass roster who is even remotely capable of defending him. Rutgers quarterback Dylan Lonergan isn't a star by any means, but he will look good against this lowly UMass defense. Rutgers has a pretty solid offensive line, and they have skill position talent around him that will overwhelm UMass.

The Rutgers defense is still a big weakness. This Rutgers defense was beaten badly even by weaker teams last year. I don't think UMass will score a lot of points here, but I do think they'll score some and move the ball. Pop Watson gives UMass a much better quarterback than they have had in a few years. Watson is a Virginia Tech transfer who has a high upside. Griffin is his top receiver. Griffin was on Watson's team in high school and they have a great connection.

Rutgers is still priced as a lower scoring games type of team. Last year, they won 34-31 over Ohio in week one. They beat Miami Ohio 45-17 in week two. Miami actually had better than 8 yards per play in that one as well. Iowa scored 38 points on this Rutgers defense a year ago.

Rutgers has big offensive advantages and Schiano has run up the score in the past in these situations. UMass has a bottom two or three defense in the country. The Rutgers defense is a big weakness too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* I'm very high on the USC offense this year. They have a star quarterback in Maiava who is going to pick apart most defenses they face. The depth USC has in the backfield is nearly unmatched nationally. The Trojans have recruited really well on the offensive line, and I expect the line to be much better this season. USC has a lot of speed on the outside too with young receivers ready to make a big impact.

San Jose State's defense should be one of the worst in the country this year. San Jose State's defensive line is below average, and the linebackers and secondary are terrible. I expect the Spartans to be picked apart on a regular basis. It starts here against a USC offense that is just too talented for them.

USC has a history of giving up some points in these blowout spread games. San Jose State has a decent quarterback in Weaver and the spread and shred offense is expected to play quickly. They will try to throw it around and break a play here or there.

In Lincoln Riley's last 15 games as a favorite of more than 28 points, the over is a whopping 13-2. The average total score in those 15 games is 73.47 points. Last year they beat Missouri State 73-13 and then beat GA Southern 59-20. 

I don't think it is out of the realm of possibilities that USC tops 60 by themselves here. A 56-10 type of game or somewhere in that range. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Tech Red Raiders defense is superb. Shiel Wood is a top three defensive coordinator in the country. He is a defensive wizard. Texas Tech is first nationally in PPA/rush and YPC this season. They are third in success rate allowed on defense. They are #2 nationally in pass rush grade at PFF. The defensive front is arguably the best in the nation. They dominated both Utah and BYU's offensive lines that are very good.

Oregon's offense was very good this year, but when they stepped up in class they did struggle. Oregon only scored 18 points at Iowa. They had just 17 points in regulation against Penn State. They put up only 4.2 yards per play at home against Indiana.

Texas Tech's offense has been very inconsistent. Morton is fine, but he isn't a big playmaker. The Red Raiders rushing attack is subpar. Oregon is weakest against the run, but I don't think Texas Tech can take advantage of that.

Oregon is playing slower this year. Texas Tech is an under team. I expect a hard fought game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* LSU is 134th in explosive play rate this year. Without Nussmeier, the LSU offense is clearly much worse. LSU couldn't score on Western Kentucky a few weeks ago. Van Buren is a scrambler who has a lot to prove. LSU has played at a very slow pace all year as well. Houston's defense is 54th in explosiveness allowed, and they have been good on the whole this season.

Houston's offense might be without a couple key starters here. The Houston offense is 115th in points per scoring opportunity. I don't see this as an explosive offense. LSU will be down several defenders here, but they do have good depth on the defensive side of the ball.

This game is lacking big play makers on offense. The LSU defense is still a quality unit. The Houston defense has been pretty good this year, and LSU's offense has been a mess. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Golden Gophers and New Mexico Lobos are both bottom 25 in the country in pace of play. Minnesota can likely move the ball some here, but they are 133rd nationally in explosiveness, so I don't think they'll pick up many big plays. The New Mexico defense is an impressive 22nd in the nation in points per scoring opportunity. 

The New Mexico Lobos are accustomed to having an advantage with their offensive line, but I think the Big Ten strength of the Minnesota defensive front will be tough for them to handle. 

Minnesota could be without their top two running backs here. New Mexico has turned it over a lot in the red zone, and they should struggle to finish drives. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma Sooners have a top three defense in the country. Oklahoma is 2nd in success rate allowed. They are 1st in rushing success rate allowed. Oklahoma is also third in havoc created, while Alabama is 27th in havoc rate allowed. The Alabama offensive line has played very poorly in recent weeks. 

Ty Simpson is a good quarterback. He hasn't been getting much help from the wide receivers. It also seems Simpson is less than 100% healthy. Williams at WR is definitely banged up too. Alabama's offense has been out of sorts for quite a while now. They scored only 20 at home against LSU. They had just 280 yards of offense against Auburn. They could muster only 7 points against Georgia.

The Oklahoma offense has been a mess as well. Oklahoma had just 212 total yards in the first meeting against Alabama. They were aided by Alabama turnovers in their scoring 23 points. Oklahoma put up only 17 points against Missouri and 17 points against LSU in their last game. John Mateer hasn't been the same since his injury and surgery. The Sooners are 106th in rushing success rate, and that has been the lone way to beat the Alabama defense during this season.

The weather here is interesting as well. A blend of three forecasts calls for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts in the 30-35 mph range. That should change the game a bit.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Delaware Blue Hens defense has been overmatched against good rushing attacks. Delaware has allowed a whopping 23 rushes of 20 yards or more this season. That's among the worst in the nation. Whether it is Lunch Winfield or Walker Howard, I would expect Louisiana to be able to move the ball well in this one.

Delaware's offense is top 25 in plays per minute. They'll push the pace and get plenty of plays off in this one. The Louisiana defense is 127th in the nation in defensive success rate allowed. Delaware's passing attack is likely to move the ball pretty easily in this game.

Delaware played a 61-31 game against UTEP. They played a 59-30 game against Liberty. They gave up 52 points and a whopping 9.7 yards per play against a very mediocre Wake Forest offense.

I think both teams score quite a bit here.

Take the over. 

*Note this line has moved up some since I took this last week. I like this one as long as it is below 63. Thanks and good luck* 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Tech defense has flown under the radar a bit, but this is a dominant defense that deserves a ton of credit. Shiel Wood is one of the very best defensive coordinators in the country. Texas Tech is third in the nation in defensive success rate. The Red Raiders are 4th in explosiveness allowed. They are also first nationally in both yards per carry allowed and PPA/rush allowed. They are 4th in points per opportunity allowed, so they are keeping opponents out of the end zone.

BYU likes to run the football a bunch with Bachmeier and Martin, but it is very tough to do against this Red Raider defensive front. BYU is 34th in rushing play success rate on offense, and they are running the ball on 56.5% of their offensive plays. They are just 70th in red zone touchdown percentage on offense. BYU is 102nd in pass success rate on offense. They are up against a Texas Tech defense that is 4th in pass play success rate allowed.

BYU defensively is solid as well. They are 30th in success rate allowed. They are 25th in explosiveness allowed. BYU is 8th in red zone TD percentage allowed on defense. 

The first game between these two saw both teams average less than 5 yards per play.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Washington State Cougars have been a great under team in the last half of the season. Washington State is playing at a bottom ten tempo out of all 136 teams in the country. Washington State is a very run heavy offense that doesn't take many shots down the field.

Oregon State is 13th in stuff rate on defense and 17th in defensive line yards. Robb Akey's defense is actually not a bad unit. They are 34th in success rate allowed.

Washington State's defense has been excellent in the back half of the season. They are 30th in points per scoring opportunity allowed too, and Oregon State is 123rd in points per scoring opportunity on offense. 

These two just played each other a couple weeks ago and it was 10-7. I expect the defenses to have the upper hand once again.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane host the UAB Blazers on Saturday in the season finale for both teams. 

UAB has had some major problems inside the football program at the end of the season. It's hard to say how motivated they will be in this one. UAB is only averaging 19 points per game in their last three games. The Tulsa defense has been decent this year, and they don't give up too many big plays.

UAB's defense isn't good, but Tulsa is inconsistent on offense. The Golden Hurricanes often struggle to throw the ball.

The weather forecast here is a big reason why I find this play valuable. The current forecast calls for rain throughout the game and it could be heavy at times. The winds are expected to be sustained at 20 mph with gusts to 31 mph. That kind of weather changes a game significantly. The play calling should be more conservative with more running of the football.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys have been much better in recent weeks. They are fighting hard to the finish in what has been a terrible season. They have a new head coach on the way and I think they can play hard one more time.

Iowa State's defense has played a bit better of late. They are 46th in defensive success rate. They are 35th in PPA/rush allowed. The run defense is the strength of the team. Iowa State has seen 3 of their last 5 games finish 43 points or lower.

Oklahoma State's last two games have been 31 and 20 points total. The Cowboys offense is 131st in the nation in success rate. The Cowboys are likely to have to run here, and that is their biggest weakness.

The weather is a big part of the handicap. Sustained winds of 23 mph with gusts to 38 mph are in the forecast for this one. That should make both teams far more conservative. A lot of running and the clock keeps moving. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Air Force is without quarterback Liam Szarka and he was the huge key to their offense which was a huge success for much of the season. They were only able to muster 3 points and 2.7 yards per play against New Mexico last week without him. 

Remember earlier in the year when Air Force had loads of high scoring games? Air Force has now played in five straight games that have finished with a total of 45 points or less. The Falcons defense has gradually played better, but their offense has no explosiveness now.

Colorado State is very poor on offense too. The Rams don't have the speed on the outside to take advantage of the Air Force secondary weaknesses. 

A slow paced game with a lot of running of the football.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers may have the worst power 5 offense in the country. They can't complete passes, and their offensive line isn't nearly as strong as it was in past seasons. Illinois defensively has struggled badly against the pass,  but they are solid against the run. That is a good matchup for Wisconsin, since the Badgers passing attack has been nearly non existent. Illinois is 47th in YPC allowed and 27th in rushing explosiveness allowed.

Illinois is just 62nd in explosiveness on offense. The Fighting Illini are likely to struggle to run against the Badgers defense that is 27th in YPC allowed.

Wisconsin has had 7 straight games go under this low total. I think this will be an 8th straight.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Air Force was an absolute over team earlier this year. The defense is still bad, but they have gotten a bit better. They were allowing more than 8 yards per play in the first half of the season, and they are at 6.4 YPP allowed in their last three games. They actually played pretty well against a good UConn offense last week.

Air Force star quarterback Liam Szarka was injured last week (fracture in hand/arm of throwing arm). Air Force coach said Szarka likely out for the season. The Falcons offense had been struggling a little more of late, and without Szarka this simply isn't the same offense. New Mexico has been excellent at stopping the run. The Lobos are 20th in Defensive Line yards. They are 24th in YPC allowed and 20th in rushing explosiveness allowed. New Mexico's weakness has been against the pass, but with Szarka out Air Force is severely limited through the air.

New Mexico is playing at a very slow pace, and the Lobos offense is just 105th in rushing explosiveness. 

Both of these teams will run the football a bunch here, and this total hasn't been adjusted enough for Szarka's injury.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UTSA Roadrunners are a completely different team at home. UTSA's offense is on a whole different level at home on their fast track in the dome. UTSA is averaging 48.3 points per game at home. They are also allowing 27.3 points per game at home. UTSA is accustomed to track meets on their home turf. Owen McCown has been poor on the road, but at home he has a 74.4% completion percentage and a 13/0 touchdown to interception ratio. 

East Carolina wants to play as fast as possible. They are top three in the nation in all pace metrics. The Pirates want to throw the ball a ton too, and that is a good fit for this one since UTSA is terrible against the pass. UTSA is 114th nationally in yards per pass attempt allowed. UTSA is also 124th in passing explosiveness allowed. Katin Houser's numbers are better on the road than home, and he should play very well here. UTSA's red zone defense has been a big weakness all season long. 

Both teams will be airing it out and East Carolina will push the tempo in a big way. This game should go down to the wire. I expect both offenses to put up a lot of points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The James Madison Dukes have a real opportunity to make the College Football Playoff. It is their defense that has been extremely dominant. James Madison is first in the nation in success rate allowed. They are 5th in explosiveness allowed. They are also 8th in havoc created.

Washington State has been a great under team of late thanks to a couple key things. First, they are playing at an extremely slow pace. Washington State is bottom five in the country in tempo in the last month. They also are only 122nd in yards per play on offense. They are 127th in explosiveness on offense. Second, Washington State has really improved on defense of late. They have allowed just 3.6 yards per play in their last three games (3rd nationally). Washington State is allowing only 11.5 points per game in their last six games and two of those games were against Ole Miss and Virginia.

Both teams are run heavy, and I expect the clock to be moving quickly here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Louisville Cardinals defense is very good. Louisville is 12th in success rate allowed this season. The Cardinals are 9th in PPA/pass allowed. They are 6th best in passing down success rate allowed. SMU is a pass heavy team. The Mustangs have the 20th highest percentage of plays being a pass of anyone in the country. Louisville is 33rd best in the country in explosiveness allowed. 

The SMU defense has been excellent all season. SMU is 3rd nationally in PPA/rush allowed. The Mustangs should shut down the run game here. SMU can be thrown on at times, but they are still 35th in PPA/pass. The important factor for me here is Louisville's offensive line is very weak. They are 87th in havoc allowed. SMU is 6th nationally in havoc created. They should be in the backfield here.

Louisville has a quarterback problem with Miller Moss playing poorly and questions about who will play QB this game.

I see both defenses with an advantage.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego State Aztecs defense has been elite this year. They are coming off their worst performance of the season at Hawaii. I expect a big bounce back from them here. San Diego State is allowing just 10.3 points per game at home this year. The Aztecs are 2nd in PPA/pass allowed and 10th in PPA/rush allowed this year.

San Diego State will be up against a backup quarterback for Boise State. The Broncos were held to 7 points by Fresno State at home in their last game. 

Boise State is 13th nationally in success rate allowed.

This is a huge game for both teams in the Mountain West Conference race. I expect both defenses to be ready to go. 

A rare poor weather day in San Diego is expected here. A 90% chance of rain is forecast here, and there is a flood watch for Saturday. There are winds of 12-18 mph expected too. This is a grass surface and it could be in rough shape.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Coastal Carolina offense started the year horribly, but with Samari Collier this offense has taken off. Collier is a dual threat quarterback who is a very solid runner. The rushing explosiveness in the Chanticleers offense has really made a huge difference. Coastal Carolina has scored 45, 44, and 40 points in their last three games.

Now, Coastal Carolina goes up against one of the worst run defenses in the country. Georgia Southern is 135th out of 136 teams in YPC allowed. They are dead last at 136th in rushing explosiveness allowed. 

Georgia Southern plays at a quick pace. The Eagles are good at converting in the red zone, and they are 40th in rushing success rate and 30th in pass play success rate on offense. Coastal Carolina's defense has allowed 37, 27, and 27 points in their last three games. Coastal is 120th in rushing explosiveness allowed.

The season long numbers for Coastal's offense don't matter anymore, with Collier this is a good offense that is playing quickly.

Take the over. 

(This number has moved a bit during the week- I would still bet this for 4 stars as high as 60 and a 3 star rating above 60. Thank you) 

*4 Star Play Under* The Oregon State Beavers defense has played pretty well with Coach Akey as the interim head coach. They held Washington State to 7 points and then held Sam Houston State to just 157 yards (Sam Houston scored 2 special teams TD's in that game). 

Oregon State's offense plays slowly, and they aren't explosive at all. Johnson doesn't throw the ball down the field. They are reliant on Hankerson hammering away to get 4 yards or so on the ground. 

Tulsa is very inefficient on offense. This team hasn't found a good quarterback all season, and they struggle badly in the red zone.

The long term weather forecast calls for rain and heavy winds here on Saturday. I would play the under without that weather, but it is a nice extra bonus.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles and Ball State Cardinals square off in a MAC battle on Saturday afternoon.

The weather in Muncie Indiana looks very windy for this game. The current blend of three forecasts calls for sustained winds of about 20 mph with gusts to 33 mph during this game. That kind of wind can change a game in a big way.

Eastern Michigan's defense isn't good, but they have definitely improved in MAC play. Eastern Michigan has actually seen 5 of 6 MAC games stay below this posted total in regulation.

Ball State has one of the worst offenses in the nation.  Ball State is 133rd in offensive success rate. They are just 118th in explosiveness on offense too. Four of Ball State's five MAC games have finished at 42 combined points or lower.

Games with average winds of 10 mph or more at Ball State are 22-11 to the under in the last 33.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Northwestern Wildcats are 135th out of 136 teams in the country in plays per minute. Northwestern is slowing the game down in a big way. They are 40th in rush rate, so the clock should be moving while they try to run the ball here. 

Michigan is 14th in YPC allowed and 14th in rushing explosiveness allowed. The Wolverines aren't likely to give up many big plays here. Northwestern is a miserable 129th in points per scoring opportunity on offense too, so when they get into scoring position they have struggled to cash in with touchdowns.

Michigan's offense has been inconsistent this year. Michigan will play slowly as well and they are pretty conservative with their play calling. Northwestern is 41st in points per scoring opportunity allowed. They are a solid red zone defense.

The winds here could play a role in Wrigley Field. Sustained winds of 16 mph with gusts to 27 mph are expected. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams both prefer to play at a much slower pace than the national average. 

Florida is 89th in the nation in explosive play rate on offense. The Gators are 113th in passing play success rate. They rely more on running the ball. Kentucky is 31st in YPC allowed and 36th in rushing play success rate allowed. 

I've been very impressed by the Florida defense this year. The Gators are 25th in rushing play success rate allowed. They are 37th best at preventing explosive plays. Kentucky is just 126th in explosive play rate offensively. The Wildcats are very poor in the red zone offensively. 

Two teams who are better on defense than offense and both teams are playing slowly.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers offense is terrible. Wisconsin is averaging 6.75 points per game in their last four games. Wisconsin is 133rd in the nation in tempo, so they are stalling in a big way. Wisconsin is 135th out of 136 teams in the country in explosive play rate on offense. They are also 134th in points per scoring opportunity, so they are awful at cashing in if they ever do get down deep into opponents territory.

Washington struggled offensively badly at Maryland and at Michigan. The Huskies offense hasn't looked the same on the road. Washington is 80th in tempo. The Wisconsin secondary has been poor, but the run defense is above average.

The Washington defense is 21st in explosiveness allowed. They are 35th in the nation in yards per carry allowed.

The weather here could be a factor. The forecast calls for some rain showers that could even turn to snow showers later in the game. The winds will be picking up later in the game. Sustained winds of 12 mph late in the game with gusts to 19 mph are expected.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Carolina Tar Heels defense has been amazing the last few weeks. They held Virginia to just 10 points in regulation. They held Cal to 291 yards of offense. They didn't allow a defensive touchdown against Syracuse last week. This unit has really put it together of late.

North Carolina has played very slow on offense. The Tar Heels are 121st in the nation in tempo. They played at an extremely slow pace last week with the lead. They are favored in this game as well. 

These two offenses are 125th and 112th in the nation (out of 136 teams) in yards per play on offense. They are 121st and 125th in the country in explosiveness on offense as well. 

Both of these teams have been dreadful at finishing drives. They are 127th and 119th in the country in points per scoring opportunity on offense. 

A slow pace and two offenses who struggle to hit big plays or cash in when in the red zone.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are a completely different offense with new quarterback Samari Collier leading the way. Collier is a really good runner who has made some good passes in the system as well. Coastal Carolina has scored 45 and 44 points in the last two games after struggling badly to score earlier this year. 

Georgia State plays quickly, but they are a really weak defense. They have allowed 41, 41, and 38 points in their last three games. I think they'll give up a lot again here.

Coastal Carolina's defense has allowed 27 points or more in three of their last four games. 

Both teams play at an above average pace.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Arkansas State is heavily reliant on the passing game, and Southern Miss is excellent in the secondary. Southern Miss is 19th in passing play success rate allowed. Southern Miss is 20th at PFF in coverage grade. Southern Miss is 42nd in passing explosiveness allowed. Southern Miss is 10th nationally in pass rush grade. Arkansas State is 119th in havoc allowed. The Red Wolves have a low early downs EPA on offense. I think Raynor and Arkansas State will be in a lot of bad spots on offense.

Arkansas State has improved a lot defensively of late. The Red Wolves have allowed 14, 24, and 10 points in their last three games. They gave up just 2.8 yards per play to Troy a week ago. Their run defense has improved drastically in the last three contests. 

Neither of these offenses have been very good at hitting big plays. Above a couple key numbers, I'll go to the under in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oklahoma defense is clearly good, but they aren't as good as they looked on paper. They hadn't faced a good offense so far this season, and Ole Miss rolled up 431 yards and 34 points on the Sooners. 

Tennessee plays at the second fastest pace of any team in the nation. The Volunteers are 12th in the nation in yards per play (Ole Miss is 25th), and I expect Tennessee to have success on offense here. Joey Aguilar has been great at home, and the Volunteers backfield is very good.

John Mateer has explosiveness in both the run and passing game, and the Vols defense has given up big plays all year. Oklahoma is 42nd quickest in the nation in tempo too, so there will be a lot of possessions in this game.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Auburn Tigers put up 33 points on Arkansas last week. Arkansas is a horrible defense, and even then Auburn only averaged 5.4 yards per play in that game. Arkansas turned the ball over 4 times and gave Auburn quite a few of those points. 

Auburn made a quarterback change to Ashton Daniels during the game last week. Daniels looked a bit better than Jackson Arnold in limited time, but I don't think he is going to fix this offense. Auburn is 116th in yards per pass attempt. They are 135th in sacks allowed per game. We don't know who the quarterback will be, but whoever it is will be playing behind a poor offensive line. 

Kentucky needs to run the football on offense to have much success. The Wildcats are 118th in passing play success rate on offense. They are 103rd overall in yards per play. Auburn is elite at stopping the run. They are 3rd nationally in YPC allowed. They are also third in rushing success rate allowed. They should stuff Kentucky on the ground.

These two teams are 99th and 119th in explosive play rate on offense. Neither offense is good in the red zone either.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have really impressed me on defense this year. Jake Dickert's team is playing really hard on that side of the ball. 

Wake Forest is first in the nation in yards per pass attempt allowed this year. The Demon Deacons are 11th in success rate allowed. They are 16th best in the nation in explosiveness allowed. 

Florida State is 33rd in the nation in yards per play allowed. The Seminoles are 30th in explosiveness allowed overall and 11th in rushing explosiveness allowed. 

Wake Forest is reliant on breaking big running plays, and the Seminoles appear set to slow that down. Wake Forest is just 123rd in the nation in offensive success rate.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego State Aztecs defense is dominant in every way. San Diego State is 4th in defensive success rate allowed. They haven't allowed a play of 50 yards or more all season (only 4 teams in the country can say this), and they are second best in the country in points per opportunity allowed. They don't give up big plays and are really tough in the red zone. They are fantastic against both the run and the pass. San Diego State has already held three teams to 0 points this season.

Wyoming's defense is top 5 in the country in points per opportunity allowed. Wyoming is also solid at not allowing explosive plays. The Cowboys are 18th nationally in explosiveness allowed. On offense, Wyoming is 108th in PPA/rush and 102nd in QBR. They are just 106th in explosiveness on offense.

San Diego State is bottom ten in the nation in tempo. The Aztecs are happy to run the football a bunch with a lead and keep the clock moving. That should be the case in the latter stages of this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Western Michigan Broncos are a solid under team. They are a slow paced team that lacks explosivity on offense. They are 95th in the nation in tempo. They are 127th in explosiveness on offense. Western Michigan also has one of the best defenses in the MAC though. The Broncos are 15th nationally in yards per play allowed.

Central Michigan is one of the most run heavy teams in the country. They are 132nd out of 136 teams in the country in tempo. They are happy to shorten the game. 
These two teams are 104th and 92nd in the nation in points per scoring opportunity.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona State Sun Devils will be without Sam Leavitt in this one. Leavitt is a really good QB and the drop off to backup Jeff Sims is a really big one. Jordyn Tyson is one of the best wide receivers in the country and he is considered doubtful for this game. Kyson Brown is out at RB as well. Center Ben Coleman will also miss this game.

Arizona State's game plan on offense should be far more conservative than it has been for the season overall. While others have taken advantage of the Iowa State injuries in the secondary, with Arizona State being so shorthanded I don't think they can do the same.

Arizona State's highest scoring game against an FBS opponent this year has been a total of 52 points. Their last two games have both been low scoring. 

Iowa State has been very poor in red zone offense. The Cyclones are just 78th nationally in explosiveness on offense too. Arizona State's defense is 14th in havoc rate so they should keep Becht a little unsure back in the pocket. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Cougars are a slightly below average tempo team who has shown the willingness to drastically slow their pace when they are playing from a larger lead. 

West Virginia is a fast paced team that is wildly inefficient on offense. West Virginia is 112th in success rate on offense, and in recent weeks they have been even worse than that. The Mountaineers are run heavy because they are so banged up at quarterback, but Houston is a solid run stuffing team. Houston is 28th in the nation in YPC allowed. West Virginia is 125th in PPA/pass, and I don't think they'll be able to throw it here.

Houston's offense is run heavy, but they are just 122nd in the nation in rushing success rate. West Virginia isn't good against the pass, but the Mountaineers are 37th in rushing play success rate allowed. West Virginia's red zone defense has actually been very solid this season.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The James Madison Dukes have an excellent defense. James Madison is 2nd nationally in defensive success rate allowed. They are 4th in YPC allowed. They are 4th nationally in explosiveness allowed too. James Madison is 4th in explosiveness allowed in the run game. 

James Madison is 123rd out of 136 teams in the country in pace of play. They are running the football quite a bit and using the clock. Texas State is 15th in pace of play, so we have a pace war here. 

Texas State is 15th in pass play success rate on offense. They are only 58th in rushing play success rate on offense. The Bobcats have relied on the pass and they lack explosivity in the run game.

The weather in San Marcos is a big factor here. The blend of 3 major forecasts calls for 20 mph sustained winds and gusts to 32 mph during this game. That really hurts Texas State's ability to throw the ball here. James Madison should run it a lot and slow the game down.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Stanford was only able to put up 3 points against BYU and 10 points against SMU. Those defenses aren't better than the Miami defense. Miami is 15th in success rate allowed on defense. They are 6th in the nation in defensive line yards. They are 13th nationally in 3rd down conversion percentage allowed. 

Stanford's quarterback Ben Gulbranson is hobbled now, but is trying to play through the injury. I think this will be a tough game for him. 

Offensively, Miami is just 117th in offensive explosiveness. Stanford is 36th in PPA/rush allowed. the Cardinal have been very solid against the run in recent weeks.

The weather here should matter. A sustained wind of 23 mph and gusts to 30 mph here. This stadium is partially covered by a canopy for the seats, but the playing surface isn't covered. The wind will matter some. There are rain showers expected at times on Saturday evening too. This playing field is grass where the rain would matter more.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers have scored a grand total of zero points in their last two games. Billy Edwards Jr is still injured and the Badgers are rotating between Hunter Simmons and Danny O'Neil under center. Neither of them have had any kind of success leading the way at QB.

Oregon's defense is 7th in the country in explosiveness allowed. They are 1st in QBR allowed and 21st in YPC allowed.

Wisconsin's defense has struggled against the pass, but they are still good against the run. The Badgers are 32nd nationally in PPA/rush allowed. They are 4th nationally in rushing explosiveness allowed.

The weather here should be a major factor. The forecast calls for steady rain and sustained winds of 19 mph with gusts to 34 mph during the game. That will make both teams more conservative with the play calling. A lot of moving clock in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Longhorns offense is just not working. They managed just 3.3 yards per play against Kentucky last week. Texas is 107th in the nation in success rate on offense. The Longhorns are just 66th in offensive explosiveness as well.

Mississippi State is 22nd in opponent QBR allowed. The secondary has been excellent. The Bulldogs are 90th nationally in YPC allowed, but they are 13th in rush explosiveness allowed.

Texas has had five games that stayed below this posted total. The Longhorns defense is top notch. They are 20th in PPA/pass allowed and 9th in PPA/rush allowed. They are 5th in the nation in explosiveness allowed.

Miss State is a fast paced team, but their offense has struggled against the better defenses they have faced. Texas will be the best defense they have played thus far. Miss State has played 3 of their 6 FBS opponents to a final score of 44 total points or lower.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Vanderbilt is easily first in the nation in points per opportunity- this team is cashing in bigtime on their scoring chances. Vandy 7th in rush success rate. Missouri 30th in rush success rate allowed. Vandy 7th in explosiveness in run game- Missouri 51st in rushing explosives allowed.

Missouri wants to run the football! Auburn made that very hard on them last week. Vandy is 26th in the nation in PPA/rush allowed. They are only 12th in the SEC in tackling grade at PFF though, and that concerns me some for the Vanderbilt defense with Ahmad Hardy coming at them early and often here. He’s first in the nation in yards after contact.

The two defenses are 74th and 70th in points per opportunity allowed. Vandy 1st on offense and Missouri 10th. Pace of the game will be slow, but I do think they can have success on offense in this game.

We're below a key number here, and I think Vanderbilt will push the scoring here and Missouri will do enough to get this one over the total.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington State Cougars have drastically slowed their pace down. They rank as the second slowest paced team in the country in their last three games.

Toledo is very solid all around on defense, but the Rockets offense is very inconsistent. I've been super impressed by the Washington State defense and how they held down both Ole Miss and Virginia.

The weather in Pullman looks very poor for this game. A steady rainfall through the game and winds of 14 mph with gusts to 24 mph. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Kansas Jayhawks offense has been very good this year, and it has been excellent at home. Kansas put up more than 10 yards per play at home against Cincinnati. 

Kansas State is thought of as a defensive team, but this team isn't what they once were. The Wildcats are 66th nationally in yards per play allowed. They are also 92nd in explosiveness allowed. 

On the other side, Kansas has a very weak defense. The Jayhawks are 123rd in the nation in YPC allowed. They are 103rd in explosiveness allowed. 

Last year, these two teams put up 6.7 yards per play and 6.2 yards per play and got to 56 points. I think the defenses are worse this season.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Volunteers are third in the nation in pace of play. Heupel's team is pushing the pace to the extreme as they always do. Tennessee is much worse defensively this year than they have been the last couple seasons, but they have a better and more balanced offense. The Tennessee ground game should find success here. Alabama is 104th in the nation in YPC allowed, and they are 125th in rushing explosiveness allowed.

Ty Simpson has been amazing the last few games for the Alabama offense. Tennessee is one of the worst secondaries in the SEC. They are 81st nationally in PPA/pass. I think the Crimson Tide have a big game through the air in this one. 

These two teams have both been tremendous in the red zone at converting those trips into touchdowns. Look for them to finish the drives in this game too.

This total has come down, and I disagree with the line move.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams are 126th and 132nd in yards per play offensively. Akron had one good offensive game against Central Michigan, but in general they have been terrible. The Zips are 133rd in rushing explosiveness and 125th in yards per passing attempt. 

Ball State averaged 1.8 yards per play on offense last game against Western Michigan. They'll be better than that here against Akron, but the Cardinals have major offensive issues too. They are 131st in success rate on offense.

Neither of these defenses are very good overall, but they have both been pretty good in the red zone. The two offenses are terrible in the red zone as well.

As a potential bonus the long range weather calls for winds in the 20 mph range with a chance for a shower here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd offense has been better than expected this year. Marshall's Carlos Del-Rio Wilson has 11 TD's and zero interceptions on the year. Marshall has scored 38 points or more in four straight games.

Texas State is 33rd in the nation in tempo. The Bobcats just allowed a very mediocre backup quarterback in Tucker Kilcrease from Troy to throw for 419 yards and 5 touchdowns. Texas State is 122nd in the nation in explosiveness allowed. Combine that with the fact that they are one of the worst red zone defenses in the country and you get a really poor defense that gives up a load of points. 

Texas State offensively is 32nd in yards per attempt on offense, and Marshall is 118th in yards per passing attempt allowed. The Bobcats offensive line has been good, and the Thundering Herd have relied on havoc to even slow down opposing offenses.

Two teams who are both in the bottom 15 in the country in explosiveness allowed. Three straight games of Marshall have gone to at least 70 total points.

Three of Texas State's games have finished with 79 points or more. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons have a star quarterback in Czarka. He runs the triple option offense extremely well, and he is a much better passer than they have had in recent seasons. Air Force put up 603 yards of total offense against UNLV last week. Air Force is first in the nation in points per scoring opportunity. They are converting red zone trips into touchdowns. 

Defensively, Air Force is a complete mess. They have allowed a whopping 11 plays of 50 yards or more, and no one in the country is giving up more explosive plays. The Falcons just don't have enough speed on defense. Wyoming just had their best offensive showing last week against San Jose State, and this defense is even worse.

Wyoming is 100th in defensive line yards and 106th in yards per carry. Air Force will run all over Wyoming.

Air Force games have continually gone over the total, and most haven't even been close. I'll go to the high side again here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Illinois Huskies are a solid under team. Northern Illinois is bottom 30 in plays per game. They definitely move at a slow pace. Northern Illinois is also 135th nationally in yards per play out of 136 teams. They are averaging an ugly 4.21 yards per play. Thomas Hammock's group is pretty good defensively though. They are 44th in PPA/pass allowed and 53rd in PPA/rush allowed. 

Ohio is a below average tempo team as well. The Bobcats are top ten nationally in rushing explosiveness thanks largely to Parker Navarro. Northern Illinois though is 34th nationally in rushing explosiveness allowed. Ohio is an above average MAC defense and that should be enough to stop Northern Illinois here.

These two teams are both top 16 in the nation in red zone touchdown percentage allowed.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Northwestern hosts Purdue in their temporary football stadium right on Lake Michigan here. The weather plays a large role here with this right on the lake. A chance of scattered rain showers and winds of about 12-15 mph are expected here. That should be enough to make a difference at this venue.

Northwestern plays at an extremely slow pace. The Wildcats scored 42 points on both Western Illinois and ULM, two teams who were extremely overmatched in the trenches. Northwestern has struggled badly to score on most teams they have played this year.

Purdue has been improving, and they should have won at Minnesota last week. The Boilermakers defense held up well in that game against Minnesota. Purdue isn't a big play offense either.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bulls have one of the best defenses in the MAC. UMass has the worst offense in the country. UMass is 136th in yards per play and 130th in explosiveness on offense. They only scored 6 points and put up 3.3 yards per play on a terrible Kent State defense last week. 

UMass isn't good defensively, but they are much better on defense than offense. They are actually 14th best in the country in explosiveness allowed. They'll give up points, but it should at least take some time. Kent State only had 5.3 yards per play on them- it was turnovers and short fields that led to the points.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma Sooners offense isn't the same with John Mateer at less than 100%. Now, they'll look better than they did last week because they don't have to face the Texas defense. Still, South Carolina is an above average defense.

Oklahoma is far less explosive with Mateer banged up. The Sooners were out of sorts last weekend. South Carolina's offense is a complete mess. The Gamecocks are 132nd in the nation in yards per carry. The offensive line is a glaring weakness, and this Oklahoma defensive front might be the best in the nation.

Sellers is a really good QB, but he is going to be in all kinds of bad spots in this game. Oklahoma is 1st in defensive success rate allowed against the run. They are first against the pass as well. The Sooners are second in the nation in havoc. They are second in points per opportunity allowed also. South Carolina has been awful in the red zone. The Gamecocks are 130th in points per scoring opportunity.

Defensively, both of these teams are in the top 11 in red zone TD percentage allowed.

South Carolina hasn't had a game finish higher than 49 points all year. They have had three games finish at 38 points or less. Oklahoma's highest scoring game this year was 45 points. The Sooners have had four games finish at 41 points or fewer. 

Take the under. 

*5 Star Top Play Under* My numbers support a larger play on the under in this one. LSU has played four games against FBS schools and none of those games have topped 43 points (that one was Ole Miss). Recent South Carolina games have been higher scoring than they should have been due to fluke defensive/special teams plays to score or have consistently short fields.

LSU hasn't scored more than 23 points in a game against an FBS opponent all season long. The Tigers offense just hasn't been any good. The defense is leading the way with their excellent pass rush.

Sellers is a star for the Gamecocks, but the offensive line in front of him is a mess. The LSU pass rush is the strength of the team. There should be a bunch of big negative plays for South Carolina and they'll be behind the sticks a lot.

Take the under. Top Rated play. 

*4 Star Play Over* This USC offense is extremely tough to slow down. They have two weeks to get ready for this game. The Michigan pass defense is only mediocre. They rank 45th in QBR allowed so far this year. USC should be able to hit explosives and finish in the red zone here. The Trojans have the balance that allows them to finish drives at a very high rate. 

The USC defense is talented, but they are still really inconsistent. I've overall liked what I've seen from Underwood. I think they have success here against a USC secondary that is an ugly 102nd in QBR allowed this year. Michigan State was able to move the ball quite a bit against USC, and I think the Wolverines can here too.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons have played four games against FBS competition this year. The combined total scores in those games have been: 79 points, 86 points, 79 points, and 65 points. 

Air Force is dead last by a mile in yards per play allowed this season at 7.71 yards per play allowed. The Falcons allowed 44 points against a Hawaii team that has badly struggled to find a rhythm on offense the rest of the season. 

Air Force is wasting some very good output on offense from quarterback Liam Szarka. They have been explosive in both the passing and running game. UNLV has been very weak against the run, and I think Air Force will hit them with a lot of big gainers on the ground here. UNLV is allowing 5.15 yards per carry on the season.

The Air Force defense is 136th out of 136 teams in the country in explosiveness allowed, and UNLV has big play potential with Thomas on the ground and Colandrea and company through the air. 

UNLV's defense has shown the ability to give up a lot. They allowed 38 points to Miami (OH) and 31 points against FCS Idaho State.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Western Michigan Broncos have played two MAC games. The score against Toledo was 14-13. The score against UMass was 21-3. I think Western Michigan based on their style of play and improved defense will have a lot of low scoring games in the MAC this year. Western Michigan is 57th in YPC allowed and they are 11th in PPA/Pass so far this season.

Ball State is coming off a shocking win over Ohio. The Cardinals are playing at a very slow pace on offense. The Cardinals did a good job slowing down the Bobcats offense last week, and they have made some improvements on defense.

Not very many possessions in this one- take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wake Forest Demon Deacons best offensive player is Demond Claiborne. He's banged up and is likely to play but at less than 100 percent here. If he is banged up it really hurts this teams explosiveness. Ashford is probable to play here too but has been banged up quite a bit this year.

Oregon State has been unable to run the football on anyone this year. They are 128th in YPC and 133rd in rushing explosiveness. The Wake Forest defense is 5th in the nation in yards per attempt allowed in the passing game. Wake Forest is also 10th in stuff rate defensively. Wake Forest has been sneaky good on defense.

Oregon State's defense has played much better at home than on the road. They have a very good home field advantage. Oregon State is much better against the run than the pass.

I like that this could be a more conservative game with the better run defenses. The weather here calls for rain showers and winds of about 8 mph with gusts to 15 mph. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Penn State is coming off an absolutely stunning outright loss at UCLA. No one saw that one coming. Now, the Nittany Lions come into this one on a two game losing streak.

How will Penn State respond? I expect to see the defense look a whole lot better this week. Northwestern is terrible offensively. The Wildcats have looked good against an FCS foe and a far overmatched Sun Belt opponent, but against the bigger teams they have played Northwestern has done nothing on offense. The Wildcats are also bottom ten in the country in tempo.

Northwestern is a feisty defense, and the Penn State offense isn't explosive at all right now. Penn State is 122nd in the nation in offensive explosiveness. The Nittany Lions are 91st in the nation in PPA/pass. Drew Allar has played very poorly all season long.

The under is 27-15 in James Franklin's 42 games at Penn State as a home favorite. The under is 20-8 as a home favorite of 10.5 points or more.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Liberty Flames have disappointed all year, especially on the offensive end. Ethan Vasko will probably be back here, but he hasn't played well. Liberty is up against a UTEP defense that is 24th in havoc created. Liberty is 105th in pass blocking grade. UTEP should get in the backfield quite a bit here.

UTEP is 134th in the nation in success rate on offense. The Miners have gone between Nelson and Locklear, but both have been bad at QB. 

The weather here calls for sustained winds of 16 mph with gusts to 27 mph. That should make the game more conservative and it is overall very helpful for an under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane have struggled badly on offense this year. They only scored 19 on a bad Oklahoma State defense. They only put up 14 and 4.6 yards per play against a Tulane defense that is only ok. Tulsa only scored 14 points and had 4.9 yards per play against a lowly New Mexico State defense.

Tulsa is better at running the football than throwing the football, but the strength of the Memphis defense is stuffing the run. Baylor Hayes has struggled badly throwing the ball when blitzed, and Memphis brings a bunch of blitzes. 

The Memphis offense is bottom 30 in the country in tempo. They are also top 20 in the country in rush rate, so they like to run the football. Tulsa is 30th in explosiveness allowed. This isn't a great Tulsa defense, but they are much improved from a year ago.

Tulsa is 128th in stuff rate allowed when running this year, and Memphis is 11th in stuff rate on defense. The Golden Hurricane should play from behind the sticks here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Heavy winds in Lincoln should change this game. The average of three forecasts here calls for 20 mph sustained winds with gusts to 28 mph during this game. 

Michigan State's front seven is pretty strong. Nebraska is a pass heavy team that really struggles running the ball. If it is this windy here in this game, I think it slows the Nebraska offense quite a bit. Nebraska is 133rd in rushing explosiveness. 

Michigan State is 128th in stuff rate allowed on offense. The Spartans offensive line has struggled all season. They are just 93rd in rushing explosiveness too.

Teams who are lacking explosives with very slow pace (126th and 77th tempo wise) with this kind of wind. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish offense is becoming a juggernaut. Notre Dame is getting great play from CJ Carr at quarterback. The wide receivers have stepped up their game quite a bit. The running game might be the best in the country with Love and Price. Notre Dame is 13th in the nation in yards per play. They are 2nd in pass success rate. They are 23rd in rush success rate. They are 17th in explosiveness on offense. What is Boise State defensively in explosiveness allowed? The Broncos are 136th (dead last) nationally. 

Notre Dame's defense is way down this year. The Fighting Irish are 99th in yards per play allowed. They are 112th in havoc created. Boise State is 18th nationally in yards per play. They have a very strong offensive line and a good QB in Madsen.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Florida Gators have seen their last three games finish at 34 points, 30 points, and 33 points. Now, Florida must take on a Texas team that clearly has a top two or three defense in the country. 

Texas is first nationally in explosiveness allowed. You aren't going to beat them with big plays. They are also elite in red zone defense. Texas is 5th in the nation in yards per pass attempt allowed. They are 4th in the country in yards per rush attempt allowed. The Longhorns defensive front will be too good for the Florida offensive line.

The Florida defense has been very good this season. Florida is 29th in success rate allowed. They are 22nd in explosiveness allowed. 

The Texas offense has sputtered under Arch Manning. Manning has been good for a great throw once in a while, but the passing game overall has been very weak even against poor competition. Texas is 119th in PPA/pass attempt despite playing teams like UTEP, San Jose State, and Sam Houston.

Florida's offense has struggled badly under Lagway all season. They have been bottled up by far worse defenses than this Texas unit.

Both teams are bottom 10 in the country in explosiveness on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Last year's meeting between these two teams saw major fireworks as the teams went back and forth, and I think this will be another high scoring contest.

Vanderbilt just won 55-35 against Utah State. They beat Georgia State 70-21. Diego Pavia and this offense are humming along amazingly. They are first nationally in PPA/Pass attempt. The Alabama defense is just 63rd in PPA/Pass attempt allowed. Vandy is 1st in pass downs PPA and Alabama is 98th in passing downs PPA allowed.

Alabama's Ty Simpson is starting to look really comfortable at quarterback. He has some great skill position talent around him too. The Vanderbilt defense struggled against Utah State and they really have yet to be tested by a good offense. They'll be tested here in a big way.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Akron Zips are a really bad team. Akron has almost nothing going for them. The one relative strength they have as a team is their ability to slow down the run. They are 34th in PPA/rush allowed and 42nd in rushing explosiveness allowed. Central Michigan is all about the run. They are running the ball on more than 66% of their offensive snaps. Matt Drinkall is going to run the football early and often here with the Chippewas. 

Central Michigan is 111th in the nation in explosiveness on offense. They haven't been a big play offense. They usually very methodically move the ball down the field. Central Michigan has been one of the worst red zone offenses in the country too.

The Chippewas defense has been beaten by good passing teams, but Akron is 134th in passing downs success rate. Akron is 131st in yards per attempt in the passing game too.

This projects as a sloppy low scoring contest. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* These teams are 136th and 134th in yards per play offensively. There are only 136 teams in FBS. Both teams have been a real mess on offense all season. 

Western Michigan is a solid 56th in yards per play allowed on defense. Western Michigan is 22nd in explosiveness allowed, so they don't give up big plays. UMass should really struggle to score here.

Western Michigan is a run heavy team that plays at a slow pace whenever they aren't far behind in a game. The Broncos should run the ball consistently here. Defensively, UMass isn't good, but they are a decent 71st in explosiveness allowed. 

I expect a sloppy game where both teams look bad on the offensive end. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UAB Blazers are 56th quickest in tempo in the country. Army isn't as slow as they have normally been, they come in at 94th out of 136 teams. 

UAB's Jalen Kitna is a pretty good quarterback who I consider an over type quarterback. He'll take chances and it could lead to big plays for the offense or even a pick 6 for the defense. UAB is 15th in the nation in pass explosiveness. Army is 125th in pass explosiveness allowed. Army has struggled to slow down the deep passing game. UAB is 28th in the nation in PPA/pass, and Army is just 104th in PPA/Pass allowed. UAB has a path to scoring quite a few points here. UAB put up 24 points and 6.9 YPP against a Navy defense that is better than this Army unit. 

Army should have success offensively here. UAB is 135th in rush success rate allowed. They are 134th in defensive line yards. Army has some ability to throw it this year and UAB is dead last in the nation in PPA/pass allowed. 

Both defenses have been really weak in the red zone, and I think both teams can score touchdowns when they have opportunities in the red zone.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Pitt Panthers are a matchup specific defense. Pitt is great against the run with their stout defensive line. The Panthers can struggle though against teams who are pass heavy. The Panthers secondary is prone to giving up big plays. 

Boston College is 4th in the country in pass rate, so they are throwing it around a lot. Lonergan has been a pretty good quarterback for them, and I think he can have success here against this Pitt defense. Boston College is 33rd in QBR offensively, while Pitt is 85th in QBR allowed. Pitt has also struggled to keep teams out of the end zone once they enter the red zone.

Pitt's offense is fast paced (14th in the nation) and they like to throw it around too. They are 17th in pass rate nationally. Eli Holstein has been inconsistent this year,  but the Boston College defense is subpar. Boston College is 67th in PPA/pass, and they haven't seen many good passing attacks this year either.

Both teams throwing it around and both teams top 40 in the country in tempo.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Colorado State with MASSIVE problems. Against a Washington State defense that isn’t very good, they just scored a grand total of 3 points. Col State put up 16 against a bad UTSA team. They scored 21 points against Northern Colorado who is a weak FCS team. The Rams lack playmakers on offense.

SD State now 112th in pace of play. Sean Lewis knows the strength of his team is the defense. Offensively, Jayden Denegal has been disappointing for the Aztecs. They don't have much of a downfield passing attack.

San Diego State shutout a decent Cal offense with JKS two weeks ago. They allowed 3 against N Illinois last week. Fields is an excellent edger rusher and Chambliss is a top notch linebacker.

I waited this one out for the slight move upward that I expect on low totals. It came, and now I'm backing the under.

Take the under here.

*3 Star Play Under* The last four times these two teams have played the combined total has finished at 38 points or less. 

Kentucky's offensive numbers are propped up by rolling up a big number on the lowly Eastern Michigan Eagles defense. Eastern Michigan is a bottom three defense in the country. Kentucky had just 4.6 YPP on offense against Toledo. The Wildcats passing game is very weak. They are reliant on running the football. South Carolina is 34th in rushing PPA allowed. They are 23rd in preventing explosive rushing plays. Kentucky will have to slowly work the ball down the field on the ground. 

South Carolina's offense has struggled overall this season. Sellers is a superstar, but the offensive line is very weak. The Gamecocks are 130th in offensive success rate. They are 130th in red zone TD percentage too, so they are struggling to finish drives. 

It is supposed to rain earlier in the day, and there are possible showers at times during the game. This is a grass field and the footing could be worse than normal here.

Take the under.