*5 Star CFB TOP Play of the Week* The Memphis Tigers are a different team than they have been in the past. Justin Fuente's team has been all about defense in the past, but they return only three starters on defense this year. Memphis does have a veteran offense though, and with superb quarterback play from Paxton Lynch, I expect Memphis' offense to be very good. The Tigers are pushing the pace a lot more this year. Kansas is a terrible team overall, but David Beaty is working on getting this team to play much faster. The Jayhawks are going to give up a bunch of points against everyone this year. They allowed 41 in a loss to South Dakota State last week. Both teams are playing fast and both teams have question marks on the defensive side. I've had this game circled since before the season started. Take the over big! CFB TOP Play of the Week. *Note- This one has moved a lot since I first posted it, but I did make this total 68, so I still like it as a 5 star play up to 63*

*3 Star NCAA FB Totals TKO* The Wyoming Cowboys lost 24-13 at home against North Dakota in week one. It will be a long year for the Cowboys. Eastern Michigan was beaten in week one by Old Dominion. Neither of these teams are going to be good this year, and both have tons of question marks on offense. Eastern Michigan's best player is their quarterback, and he is injured and questionable to play here. Even if he plays, I like this one, but I like it even better if he doesn't. Both teams play very slowly and run the football a bunch. This should be an ugly game that stays under the total. Take the under. 

*5 Star CFB Hidden GEM TOP Total* The Washington State offense is known for their ability to throw it against anyone. Rutgers is now without five of their top six players in the secondary after suspensions and injuries. Falk is expected to start here at quarterback for Washington State and I expect him to have a field day against this Rutgers secondary. The Cougars will push the tempo as they always do. Rutgers should have no trouble moving the football here either. Washington State's defense is one of the very worst in the nation. Rutgers put up 41 points against them last year (a 41-38 final in Pullman, Washington). I think this one has a very good chance to top the 70 point mark, which is why I like this total so much. Take the over big! 

*3 Star NCAA FB Total Value* The Clemson Tigers had a dominant defense last year. They returned only three starters this year on defense, and this unit is way down from last season. On the offensive side, Clemson should be better this year with a healthy Deshaun Watson under center. Watson has a ton of talent and the Tigers will run a fast paced offense all year. Appalachian State has some playmakers on offense and I think they can move the football in this one. Clemson will let up late as they have a big game coming up on Thursday night and they'll want to rest. That should allow Appalachian State to score more late. I think this one gets into the 60's. Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA FB Week One TOP Rated Play* The Wisconsin Badgers and Alabama Crimson Tide meet in Arlington for a week one huge clash. Wisconsin was thumped at the end of last year by Ohio State and then turned things around to upset Auburn in their bowl game. Alabama came up just a bit short against Ohio State in the playoffs. These are two teams who have a great tradition, and this game should be a good one.

When I look at these two teams, I see two teams who likely won't be able to throw the football much at all. Wisconsin won't even try to throw it much with a poor QB in Joel Stave and very few good receiving options. Alabama's QB situation isn't good at the start of the year either. Both teams have a strong offensive line though and good running backs. While Melvin Gordon Jr. is gone, Corey Clement will be good for the Badgers. Henry and Drake are two good runners for Alabama. 

Paul Chryst is the new top man at Wisconsin, and he will want to run it even more often than Gary Andersen did. Alabama has ranked in the bottom few teams in terms of pace of play for the last few years, and I think Wisconsin will this year as well. 

What does all this mean? It means that the clock will be running a lot thanks to constant running of the football. Neither team will be looking to snap it quickly at all. Both teams also have good defensive coordinators who know the opposition will be looking to run it all the time. I think we see a lot of long drives eating up a bunch of clock. This total is several points too high. I expect it to drop, which is why I'm taking this one early. Take the under big!  

*Note- This line has moved since I took this play more than a week ago. I would play for 5 stars down to 49 points and for 4 stars down to 48 points. Thank you*

*4 Star NCAA FB Under Radar Total* The Oklahoma Sooners have changed their system in the offseason. No more traditional looks on offense for them. Oklahoma is now going to run the Air Raid offense and hurry to the line. Baker Mayfield should be a great fit since he has experience in the Air Raid from Texas Tech. Akron's defense will do well against MAC opponents, but they'll be overmatched by Oklahoma's skill here. The Sooners should be able to put up a big score. Akron's offense should be much improved this year, and with the amount of chances I expect them to get and the fact that this score should be pretty lopsided, I think Akron puts up plenty to get us past this total. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Auburn/Louisville Totals CRUSHER* The Auburn Tigers defense is going to be much better under the leadership of Will Muschamp this year. Muschamp might not have worked out well as a head coach, but he's proven he is a great defensive mind. Louisville's defense will be much stronger than it was a year ago. Devante Fields is now a Cardinal and he immediately becomes the team's best player (he was the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year at TCU). Louisville likely slows this game down a bit too, because I doubt they want a shootout with Auburn. The Tigers offense will be good in the long run, but it should take some time to get things squared away with new guys at the skill positions. Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB Totals TKO* The Old Dominion Monarchs lost their star quarterback, and they are undergoing some big changes this year. Old Dominion's coach has gone on the record to say they will be slowing the pace down bigtime this year. In the past, ODU has been an uptempo offenses that gets as many possessions as possible. Eastern Michigan's defense isn't good, but ODU is working in a new starter at QB, and they'll look to eat up the play clock every time. ODU's defense was terrible last year, but I expect them to be much better this year and Eastern Michigan's offense is really bad. The slower tempo and new skill position players on offense should keep this one lower scoring than expected. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Opening Night KNOCKOUT* The FIU Golden Panthers improved a lot last year. Sure, they were only 4-8, but they went 1-11 in the previous year. Ron Turner is known as a good defensive mind, and FIU was much better defensively last year. They allowed 24.8 points per game vs. allowing 37 points per game the previous year. FIU's offense isn't very good, and they rely very heavily on being able to run the ball. While UCF has all sorts of question marks on the offensive side of the ball, their defense will be very good again this year. With UCF and FIU both running the ball a lot, the clock should tick away quickly. Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star Florida State/Oregon Total DOMINATION* The Oregon Ducks and Florida State Seminoles meet in the first college football playoff game at 5 pm ET at the Rose Bowl. Oregon is going to continue their normal uptempo style of play, and Florida State's defensive flaws should continue to show as they have all year long.

Marcus Mariota won the Heisman Trophy this year, and he absolutely deserved it. I love his decision making and he has the talent around him to put up a lot of points here. Florida State's defense has given up big plays all year long. Oregon's defense ranks 83rd in the nation in total defense. The only way they have gotten by is by forcing so many turnovers and holding opponents to field goals. Florida State has been able to pile up the points when needed this year, and they should need a bunch here. Look for a spirited effort from Winston and the Seminoles offense who believe they aren't getting enough respect.

They should light up the scoreboard in Pasadena. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Fiesta Bowl MONEY* The Arizona Wildcats and Boise State Broncos are actually relatively similar teams this year. Arizona likes to get off as many snaps as possible and win with an uptempo offense. Boise State is absolutely the same way. In the past, Boise State has had a very good defense, but that isn't the case this season. The Broncos defense has been exposed by all of the top offenses they have faced this year. The Pac-12 has looked great in bowl season thus far, and I think Arizona will put up a big number here. Boise State can score too though with Ajayi and Hedrick leading the way. This one should be a shootout. Take the over. 

*3 Star Texas Bowl Total DOMINATION* The Texas Longhorns and Arkansas Razorbacks meet in an intriguing Texas Bowl matchup on Monday night. The strength of both of these teams is their defense. The weakness of both teams is quarterback play. These teams are both going to try to establish the running game, but that also plays right into the strength of their opponent. Arkansas has improved so much this year largely because of their turnaround on the defensive side of the ball. The Razorbacks run defense has been amazing down the stretch. Texas has underperformed on the defensive line the last few years, but Charlie Strong is finally getting this group to realize their potential. 

The under is 4-0 in Arkansas' last 4 games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 bowl games. The under is 5-0 in Texas' last 5 following a double digit loss at home. A 15-0 angle. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Oklahoma Sooners defense has been pretty consistent this year. Clemson's defense has arguably been the best defense in the nation this year. One of the biggest keys to this game is the fact that Deshaun Watson will not be playing here. Backup Cole Stoudt gets the start for Clemson. To say that Stoudt is a large drop off from Watson is a massive understatement. I have made a lot of money taking the under or fading Clemson when Stoudt is at quarterback this year. Clemson's offensive game plan will be very vanilla with Stoudt under center. The Sooners offense is at its best when running the football, but Clemson has the best defensive line in the nation. I don't expect Oklahoma to be able to establish the run game here. 

The under is 6-0 in Clemson's last 6 on grass. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a Big 12 opponent. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 200 yards or more on the ground last game. A 19-0 angle. Take the under big! 

*4 Star NCAA FB Total DOMINATION* The Boston College Eagles and Penn State Nittany Lions both have had several very low scoring games this year. When these two teams collide on Saturday, I see a very low scoring game. Boston College's offense is all about the running game and Tyler Murphy is the key. Penn State has zero running game, and their offensive line isn't any good. Christian Hackenberg is a decent quarterback, but he won't have time to throw here, and he doesn't have many weapons at the skill positions. Both teams like to play at a slow tempo and use up a bunch of the play clock. The under has been the way to go in recent bowl seasons, and even though this number is very low, it's low for a reason. The under is 5-0 in Boston College's last 5 vs. the Big Ten. The under is 22-7 in Boston College's last 29 non-conference games. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB New Mexico Bowl Total* The Utah State Aggies have been great at stopping the run in recent years. The Aggies front seven has proven that they are the type of team that can stop the run even when the other team has a strong offensive line. The strength of the UTEP team is their offensive front. UTEP really can't throw the football, so they'll try to run here. I don't think they'll have all that much success. At the same time, Utah State is starting their third string quarterback here, and the Aggies offense hasn't had much success in recent weeks. UTEP will be highly motivated in this game, and both teams are going to do a lot of running. Take the under. *Note- This line continues to move down. I would play this for 3 stars at 46 or lower. Thank you*

*5 Star Army/Navy TOP Play CRUSHER* The Army and Navy game is always a lot of fun to watch. No matter the records of these two teams, you get everything in the tank from everyone on the field here. The emotions surrounding this game are amazing. The key to this play for me is the fact that both of these teams defend the triple option every single day in practice. That makes it a lot easier to be well-prepared to stop it this weekend. The primary reason the triple option is so tough to defend for most teams is the fact that they aren't used to seeing it. These teams don't need any special preparation for this week's game. They have gotten it all year long. While neither of these defenses have looked good overall this year, the past history between these two tells me the defenses should put up a spirited effort in this one. In the past eight years, the highest scoring game between these two finished at 48 points.

The under is a perfect 8-0 in the last 8 games between these two teams. The under is 9-0 in Army's last 9 games during the month of December. The under is 6-0 in Army's last 6 after scoring 40 points or more last game. A 23-0 angle. Take the under big! 

*Note- The line here has moved down a few points since I picked this game early in the week. My number for this game was 51 points.  I would still make this a 5 Star TOP Play all the way down to 56 points. Thank you*

*4 Star NCAA FB Total DOMINATION* The North Carolina Tar Heels offense has been great all year. The only reason the Tar Heels have been considered a disappointment this year has been their brutal defense. Just about everyone has done whatever they want against this defense. North Carolina State has a play maker at quarterback in Jacoby Brissett. The Wolfpack defense is going to struggle to get off the field here, but the offense should be able to pile up the points. This has been a highly competitive and high scoring series in the past few years. I think both of those trends continue this weekend. I made this total 75 points. Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Early Bird Special* The Boston College Eagles have surprised a lot of people this year. Steve Addazio deserves a ton of credit for that. Boston College has really bought into Addazio's system, and the Eagles have fought hard all season long. The defense is pretty good against both the run and the pass. Syracuse's offense is downright awful right now. They have virtually no running game, and the passing game is even worse. The Orange do have a solid defense that keeps them in most games. Boston College and Syracuse will both be doing a lot of running in this one, so we'll see the clock keep on ticking away.

The under is 5-0 in Syracuse's last 5. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the ACC. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after a loss by 20 points or more. The under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Totals TKO* The Indiana Hoosiers and Purdue Boilermakers have a history of high scoring affairs against each other. Indiana's defense is one of the worst in the nation. Purdue is improved from last year, but the main place they have improved is on the offensive end. The Boilermakers defense gives up big plays very frequently, and I expect Tevin Coleman to have a big day here. Both of these teams like to snap the ball quickly, so we should see both teams get a lot of possessions in this one. The weather shouldn't be bad on Saturday in Indiana, and that helps the over as well. Close game here with both offenses seeing lots of success. Take the over. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Play 100% CRUSHER* The UTSA Roadrunners and North Texas Mean Green have both been teams I have played the under on successfully all season. I've had this game circled for a while. These are two offensively challenged teams. When they get together, I expect a very low scoring game. In fact, I think there is a good chance the winner of this game won't top 20 points. UTSA has gotten awful quarterback play all year. It's likely that no team has had worse play from the quarterback position over the course of the season. North Texas' defense isn't particularly good, but they'll likely look good when going against this Roadrunners offense. North Texas can only run the ball, if they are forced to throw they are in real trouble. The UTSA defense is actually quite good, and they should do a good job stopping the run.

The under is 7-0 in UTSA's last 7 home games. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 November games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 on grass. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss by 20 points or more. A 27-0 angle. Take the under big! *Note- This line has moved down since I originally played it early in the week. I would play this for 5 stars down to 41 points and for 4 stars down to 39 points. Thank you.**

*4 Star CFB Friday FEAST* The Missouri Tigers and Arkansas Razorbacks get together in an underrated showdown on Friday. This is a game I'm really looking forward to, and there is a lot on the line here. Missouri will represent the SEC East in the SEC title game with a win here. Arkansas has pitched two consecutive shutouts against LSU and Ole Miss at home. The Razorbacks defense is arguably the most improved in the nation this year. Maty Mauk and the Missouri offense have been a big disappointment. The Tigers are in this position because of a very good defense and a lot of timely turnovers. Arkansas runs the ball on nearly every down, and Missouri is running it most of the time as well. A lot of running clock in this game. I see a close game all the way and the defenses having the upper hand. Take the under here. 

*3 Star NCAA Friday Early Bird Special* The Marshall Thundering Herd were passed by the Boise State Broncos in the most recent Playoff rankings. Marshall is fighting to become the top ranked team outside the power five conferences. What does that mean Marshall needs to do? They need to pick up some major style points. Marshall absolutely needs to run up the score at any chance they can. Marshall gets a chance to do that this weekend against one of the worst defenses in the nation. Western Kentucky has allowed 42 points or more on six occasions already this year! The Hilltoppers are going to get gashed by this Marshall offense on the ground and Rakeem Cato will have a monster day through the air. The Hilltoppers do have a very good passing attack with Brandon Doughty at the helm. Doughty and the Hilltoppers have scored on nearly everyone, and I think they'll put up their fair share here too. 

The over is 4-0-1 in Western Kentucky's last 5 after gaining 280 yards or more through the air last game. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The over is 8-1 in Marshall's last 9 after throwing for 280 yards or more last game. A 15-1 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Late Night BAILOUT* The Nevada Wolfpack offense has gradually gotten better throughout the course of the year. Cody Fajardo is a real star for Nevada, and he's playing in the final home game of his career here. Fresno State's defense hasn't slowed down anyone all year, and it's hard to see them slowing down Nevada's balanced attack here. While Nevada's defense appeared improved earlier this year, the Wolf Pack defense has been awful in recent weeks. Fresno State still has a lot of talent on the offensive end. The Bulldogs should be able to make some big plays on offense here. Look for a shootout in this rivalry game. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA FB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boise State Broncos offense has been tremendous this year, but their defense is way down from the level they have been at in recent years. Boise State's defense has given up at least 27 points in six straight games. Wyoming isn't particularly good on offense, but the Cowboys offense has been much better on their home field. Boise State has scored 50 points or more on offense in three of their last five games. They might not get there in this one, but if they get into the 40's we have a very good shot of cashing this play.

The over is 5-0 in Boise State's last 5 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 conference games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following an ATS loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a straight up win. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 200 yards or more on the ground. The over is 4-0 in Wyoming's last 4 following a loss. A 25-0 angle. Take the over. 

*5 Star USC/UCLA Top Play Total* The UCLA Bruins and USC Trojans are bitter rivals. Both of these teams have had this game circled for a very long time. USC has gotten some tremendous quarterback play from Cody Kessler this year. Kessler has thrown 29 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and he has completed 70.2% of his passes. Brett Hundley has been running the ball more often of late, and his dual threat ability makes this Bruins offense much better. Two very good quarterbacks should put on a show in this one. The UCLA defense has been a big disappointment this year, and I expect USC to put up a nice number against them. On the other hand, USC's secondary has had significant problems this year and Hundley is capable of making big plays with his arm as well. High scoring back and forth game here. Take the over big! 

*Note- The line has moved up here since I picked this on Tuesday evening- I would play this for 5 stars up to 63 points. 4 stars up to 65 points. Thank you*

*4 Star NCAA FB Totals TKO* The Arkansas Razorbacks defense is one of the most improved in the nation. Arkansas just shutout a pretty decent LSU team last weekend. Bret Bielema's group only allowed 14 points against the top ranked Alabama Crimson Tide. Ole Miss has been one of the top defenses in the nation all year long. The Rebels offense has let them down in some big games, and that is why they have lost twice. Arkansas loves to run the football, but I think they'll have a hard time running it against a Ole Miss defense that knows the run is coming. I don't trust Bo Wallace to make big plays for the Rebels, and I see this being a very close low scoring affair. Take the under. 

*3 Star ACC Total Takedown* The Pittsburgh Panthers have almost no passing game. The Syracuse Orange have virtually no passing game. Pittsburgh plays at one of the slowest paces of any team in the nation. The Panthers run the play clock all the way down and hand it off nearly every time. That definitely helps an under since it reduces the number of times each offense will get the ball. Syracuse's offense has been bad all year, but the Orange have a good defense. They should be able to at least slow down the Panthers running attack. Syracuse's play calling has been very conservative lately with young quarterbacks under center. This looks like a game where both teams keep it simple and it turns into an ugly low scoring game with a bunch of field goals. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under the Radar Total* The North Texas Mean Green have some major problems on offense. They have essentially zero success throwing the football, so if the running game isn't working they are done. FIU has a really bad offense, but they are much improved on defense. This is an FIU defense that definitely has shown they can stop the run, and I see them forcing North Texas to try to beat them through the air. North Texas is still decent on the defensive end, and this FIU team has gotten really bad quarterback play all year. This is going to be an extremely ugly game. I can't imagine anyone wanting to watch this one, but I do like both defenses to hold up their end and keep this game low scoring. Take the under big! 

*Note- This line has moved since I selected it on Tuesday- I would play it for 5 stars down to 48 and for 4 stars down to 46. Thank you.*

*5 Star TOP Play of the Week* The Colorado State Rams have quietly put together a really nice year. Jim McElwain is doing a great job with this team. He is a terrific offensive mind, and Colorado State has a nice balanced attack. I think this is one of the most underrated offenses in the nation. New Mexico has one of the very worst defenses in the country. The Lobos have given up 499 yards per game this year. New Mexico has allowed 277 yards per game on the ground alone. New Mexico is giving up 34.3 points per game. New Mexico allowed 60 points when they played Boise State this year.

While New Mexico is just brutal on defense, they have been able to run the football on nearly everyone. They are averaging 319 yards per game on the ground. Colorado State's defense is only mediocre. Last year when these two teams got together, the final was 66-42. Both teams had more than 500 yards of total offense in that one. Take the over big here! 

*Note- This line has moved since I first selected it on Tuesday evening. I would play this for 5 stars all the way up to 68.5 and for 4 stars up to 70 points. Thank you*

*4 Star NCAA FB Hidden GEM Total* The Old Dominion Monarchs have a tremendous offense with Taylor Heinecke at quarterback. This Monarchs offense has been able to move the football against every single team they have played against this year. Why haven't they won more games? Old Dominion has an absolutely awful defense. The Monarchs defense is so bad that the head coach has started going for it on most fourth downs on offense because he knows they aren't going to stop the opponent enough times to win. The only way ODU has a chance is to outscore the opposition. Louisiana Tech has a good offense led by Sokol at quarterback and Dixon at running back. They should slice up the ODU defense.

The over is 4-0 in ODU's last 4 games. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 following a win. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 November games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following an ATS loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing more than 200 yards on the ground. The over is 3-0-1 in LA Tech's last 4 following an ATS win. A 23-0 angle. Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Late Night BAILOUT* The UTEP Miners have found a formula that is helping them excel. Sean Kugler realized that the team's old strategy of throwing it every down and trying to outscore the opposition was failing miserably, so he changed the way UTEP would play. The Miners now play at the single slowest tempo of any team in the country. They also run the ball a bunch. They attempt to shorten the game and take pressure off their defense. It has worked very well. North Texas has a miserable offense this year. Dan McCarney's team just doesn't have enough good skill position players. The Mean Green can hold their own on defense. Both teams should run the ball a lot here. I made this total 50 points, so I clearly see a lot of value in this one. North Texas should struggle to score very much, and UTEP will have some long methodical drives. Take the under big here! 

*4 Star CFB Totals TKO* The Utah State Aggies are playing with their string quarterback right now. He is doing a decent job holding things together for the team, but he certainly isn't as productive as someone like Keeton or Garretson would be under center. New Mexico has an excellent running game, but the Lobos are awful at throwing the football. The problem for them in this game is Utah State excels at stopping the run. The Aggies know that New Mexico can't throw it, and they will be ready to shut down this Lobos running game. Utah State should be content to kill the clock late after grabbing a nice lead early on here. A lot of moving clock in this one. This total is a few points too high. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play of the Week* The Navy Midshipmen and the Georgia Southern Eagles both run the triple option. It is pretty rare to find a game with two triple option teams squaring off against each other, but that's what we have here. I love playing the under in situations like this because these defenses see the triple option every day in practice. The biggest advantage to running the triple option is generally that the opposition never gets to see it so they struggle to prep for it in just a week or two. In this case the opposing defense sees it all the time and they should be much better at slowing it down than the average team. Having said that, both of those teams have very good quarterbacks who are going to make some big plays. There will be points scored here, but I don't think it gets into the 60's. With both teams running almost every play, the clock will tick away quickly. Expect very long drives that eat up a bunch of time. Take the under big in this one! 

*5 Star TOP Play Big Ten Total* The Indiana Hoosiers passing attack is non existent right now. Indiana had absolutely no depth at quarterback to start the season, and now they are starting their third string quarterback. Zander Diamont has completed less than than 50 percent of his passes, and he has thrown no touchdowns and two picks. Rutgers' defense isn't tremendous, but they have played much better at home. They know Indiana has to run here, so they'll stack up the box. The Rutgers offense has been struggling of late. Gary Nova isn't playing at 100 percent, and that is slowing things down. Indiana used to be a team that would push the tempo in a big way, but they don't do that nearly as much with a freshman third string quarterback under center. Rutgers plays very slowly and we should see a bunch of running clock here. Take the under big! 

*5 Star TOP Play CRUSHER* The Umass Minutemen really found a gem in quarterback Blake Frohnapfel. He tranferred in from Marshall, and he has been tremendous for the Minutemen. Frohnapfel has 23 touchdowns and has revived an offense that was dreadful the past couple years. UMass is averaging 31 points per game this year. The Minutemen still have one of the worst defenses in the nation though, so they often play in shootouts. UMass allows 35 points per game and their defense is rated number 100 or worse (out of 128) in every major defensive category. Ball State's offense is improved in the last few games with Milas at quarterback. The Cardinals defense has been getting hurt by big plays all year. Both of these teams like to play quickly, so I expect a lot of possessions for both teams. 

The over is 6-0-1 in UMass' last 7 following a loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after running for 100 yards or less last game. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 450 yards or more of total offense last game. A 15-0 angle. Take the over big! *Note- This is a 5 Star TOP Play for me all the way up to 62 points. This is a 4 star play for me up to 65 points. It would be 3 stars at 65.5 or higher. Thank you.*

*4 Star CFB Hidden GEM Total* The New Mexico State Aggies defense ranks dead last in the nation when it comes to stopping the run. New Mexico State is allowing an eye-popping 325 yards per game on the ground! That's just ridiculous, and the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns averaged 6.5 yards per carry last year in the meeting between these two. Lafayette should rumble all over them with their running game in this one as well. New Mexico State's offense put up 35 points last year against Lafayette, and while it might be hard for them to reach that number here, they should score plenty against a Lafayette defense that isn't good. Expect lots of big plays from both teams in this game.

The over is 4-0 in Lafayette's last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The over is 7-0 in New Mexico State's last 7 after gaining 280 yards or more through the air last game. The over is 11-1 in their last 12 after allowing 170 yards passing or less last game. The over is 10-1 in the Aggies last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. A 32-2 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star Alabama/LSU Total DOMINATION* The Alabama Crimson Tide and the LSU Tigers are similar teams in terms of style. Both teams like to play slowly and win with their strong defense. Alabama plays at a slower pace than any other power conference team in the entire nation. LSU's offense really can't throw the football much at all this year, and the Tigers are totally reliant on the running game. Alabama's rushing defense is ranked second in the nation when it comes to stopping the run allowing only 77.6 yards per game. LSU is going to have to run the football to score many points here, and I don't think they'll be able to do it. LSU's defense struggled early in the year, but the Tigers are very talented on the defensive end and they are playing much better of late. This shapes up to be a game where both teams look to run the ball often, which will keep the clock rolling. A low scoring hard hitting game. Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Louisville Cardinals defense played a bad second half last week against Florida State, and that cost them an upset victory. Fortunately for them, they won't have to face an offense the caliber of Florida State this week. Louisville's defense is still one of the best in the country. The Boston College Eagles defense is playing really hard for Steve Addazio, and I think you have to be impressed with the job he is doing with this team. Both of these teams struggle throwing the ball. There should be a bunch of running in this game. The strength of both defenses is stopping the run. I had this one lined at 42 points, so I see several points of value on this play.

The under is 4-0 in the Cardinals last 4 road games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 November games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after throwing for 280 yards or more last game. A 14-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Big 10 Total DOMINATION* The Northwestern Wildcats offense has been pitiful of late. Michigan's offense has been awful all year long. Don't let Michigan's decent offensive performance last week fool you. That was against an Indiana defense that is among the worst in the nation. Northwestern's defense has been solid this year, and that's the only reason the Wildcats have been able to hang around in most of their games. Michigan's defense is ninth in the nation in total defense. That will probably surprise a lot of people to see that, but it just shows how poor their offense has been. The Wolverines defense is fine, but the offense is in lots of trouble. Last year when these two met, there were a grand total of 18 points scored in regulation (all field goals). Expect another ugly game here. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Totals Takedown* The Arizona State Sun Devils defense isn't very good. They have looked better in recent weeks, but that was against teams that don't have a good offense. It's one to slow down Utah (one-dimensional), Washington (were without their starting quarterback), and Stanford (poor offensively this year), but it's going to be a whole different thing to try to slow down the Notre Dame offense. Everett Golson has this offense moving well against everyone. I see no reason to believe Arizona State will slow them down. The Notre Dame defense looked good early in the year, but they have been exposed of late. In their past three games they have allowed 43, 31, and 39 points in their last three games. Taylor Kelly is getting healthier and the Sun Devils have plenty of weapons offensively. Last year's game finished 37-34, and I see a similar type of game here. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Totals TKO* The Syracuse Orange have been really bad on offense all year, and now they are going to have a third string quarterback starting in this one. I don't think that will help anything here. Duke is going to load up the box and force Syracuse to have to throw it, and they likely won't be able to. While the Syracuse offense is in a lot of trouble here, the Orange have been excellent on the defensive end. The strength of the Syracuse defense is their front seven, and that's very big for the under here since Duke is primarily a running team. Duke isn't as good as their record would indicate, and I don't think they'll run away with this one. I had this total set at 47 points. Take the under in this contest. 

*4 Star NCAA FB Early Bird Special* The Minnesota Golden Gophers overachieve every single year. Why are they able to do that so consistently? Jerry Kill is a really good coach, and the coaching staff around him is great at getting the most out of the talent they have. Iowa's defense seems to reload and be solid against the run every single year. The Minnesota Golden Gophers absolutely cannot throw the football, and Iowa's defensive coaches know that. They are going to load the box and make it really hard to run the ball. Iowa's physicality in the defensive front seven is going to be tough for Minnesota to match. Iowa's offense has looked better of late, but they haven't played all that well on the road in the past couple seasons. Minnesota's defense always plays hard. 

The under is 5-0 in the Hawkeyes last 5 games following a win by 20 points or more. The under is 5-0 in Minnesota's last 5 after giving up 170 yards or less in the passing game. The under is 4-0 in Minnesota's last 4 after a loss. The under is 4-0 in the Gophers last 4 following an ATS loss. The under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 22-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB Conference USA Total* The UTEP Miners have changed their stripes in a big way this year. What's different about this team? It's a team that used to have a ton of high scoring games because of a fast tempo and a horrible defense. Their defense still isn't very good, although they did pitch a shutout last week, but UTEP is now slowing the game down in a big way. UTEP is using up the play clock every single time. The Miners are playing at the slowest pace of any team in FBS right now. The oddsmakers are struggling to react to that change from a team that is off the radar of many. For a few more games we should be able to get value on the under. Southern Miss is a one-dimensional offense, and they won't be able to take advantage of UTEP's weak run defense. Take the under. 

*3 CFB Totals Takedown* The San Jose State Spartans defense looked really bad last weekend at Navy. San Jose State has played pretty well at home on defense, but this Colorado State offense is much better than the offenses they have been up against. It's one thing to slow down UNLV, but it's a whole different thing to stop the well-balanced Colorado State offense. The Rams can run it or throw it equally well, and they have an improved offensive line. San Jose State is getting solid production out of Gray, and Colorado State's defense has given up a lot of points in the second half of games this year. This number is set too low. I had this number at 59. Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Totals Cash* The UNLV Rebels defense is one of the worst in the nation. In fact, they are 124th in the nation out of 128 in total defense. They are giving up 525 yards of total offense per game. Last year, New Mexico rolled up 581 yards of offense in a 56-42 loss to UNLV. The Lobos offense is great at running the football, and UNLV can't stop the run. The Lobos aren't able to throw it, but they won't need to against the Rebels. UNLV's offense has been inconsistent this year, but playing against a slow defense like New Mexico should allow UNLV's speedsters at the skill positions to have another big game. I made this line 65 points. Take the over.

*Note- This line has moved up significantly since I selected it on Tuesday. I would play this for 4 stars up to 59. I would play it for 3 stars up to 62. Thank you.*

*4 Star CFB Totals TKO* The Idaho Vandals and Arkansas State Red Wolves both like to play fast. These are teams that want to get off as many snaps as possible. Arkansas State has moved the ball against just about everyone they have played, and they played a tough non-conference schedule. Idaho's defense is one of the worst in the nation. The Vandals are unlikely to be able to slow down Kneighten and this Red Wolves attack. Linehan has done a good job for Idaho at quarterback and Arkansas State's defense isn't even close to as good as they have been in the past couple years. Look for lots of scoring opportunities for both teams. Take the over.

*Note- This line has moved up significantly since I posted this pick on Tuesday- I would play this for 4 stars up to 65 and for 3 stars up to 68 points. Thank you.*

*4 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The USC Trojans have a totally different team this year than they did last season. Steve Sarkisian has this team playing much faster on the offensive end. Cody Kessler is doing a great job for this team at the quarterback spot. In fact, I think Kessler has been one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country so far this year. Kessler is completing 70 percent of his passes, and he has thrown 20 touchdowns and only two interceptions. Washington State's defense is ranked 113th out of 128 FBS teams in pass defense. The Trojans are going to put up a lot of points. At the same time, the Washington State offense isn't the reason this team is 2-6. The Cougars are 7th in the nation in total offense and first in the nation in passing yards per game at 490 passing yards per contest. USC is a bit weaker in the secondary this year than normal. Both teams like to play fast and there will be a bunch of passes thrown in this game.

The over is 5-0 in the Cougars last 5 following a double digit home loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after gaining 450 total yards or more last game. The over is 6-0 in the Cougars last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The over is 4-0 in the Trojans last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these two at Washington State. A 27-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB SEC Total* The Missouri Tigers offense has been one of the most disappointing in the nation. Missouri simply can't get the passing game going, so opposing defenses are loading the box and making it tough for the Tigers to run the football. Kentucky's defense is much better than they have been in the past, and they have been able to handle most teams running games. The Wildcats offense looked good in the non-conference action, but against SEC defenses, and especially on the road, they have been poor. Missouri leads the SEC in sacks and the Kentucky offensive line will struggle to keep this group away from Towles. I don't expect to see much scoring here. Take the under. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Play Total* The Georgia Bulldogs have really played well this year. They put up a poor performance in South Carolina and it cost them, but I've been really impressed with the way they have responded to that loss. Georgia has elevated their level of play in a big way on the defensive end. The Bulldogs stop the run well. Florida's offense is a total mess right now, and the only thing the Gators can do is run it. I don't think any of the Gators QB's can throw it effectively against Georgia. The Bulldogs offense is run heavy, and why wouldn't they be? Even without Gurley, Georgia has a ton of talented running backs and Chubb has been tremendous for them. Both teams will run the ball a bunch here. Florida's defense has been excellent in every game other than the Alabama game. This game means a lot to both teams. Look for a lot of defense in this one. Take the under big! 

*Note- This line has moved in a big way since I selected it on Tuesday. I would play this one for 5 Stars down to 50, for 4 stars down to 48, and for 3 stars down to 46. Thank you*

*3 Star CFB ACC Total Value* The Syracuse Orange have some major problems on offense right. That has overshadowed some really nice performances by the defense so far this year. Last week's 16-6 loss at Clemson was a good example of that. I played the under in that one and cashed in, and I'm going to take the under again. NC State's offense has been really inconsistent this year, and the Wolfpack defense is improved. I don't think either of these offenses have what it takes to put together consistent long drives in this game. Expect a sloppy low scoring game. Take the under.

*Note- This line has moved against me- I would play this one for 4 stars at 51 points or higher. Thank you.*

*5 Star TOP Play Late Night BAILOUT* The Utah Utes and USC Trojans meet in what should be a really good game Saturday night in Utah. One thing most people forget about the Utah Utes is they have a tremendous home field advantage thanks to the elevation they play at. USC's weakness is their lack of depth. I think the Trojans offense will be far less effective than they have been in recent weeks in the elevation here. Utah's offense has transformed in a way that means they run the ball nearly every down. The Utes have been getting such poor play from their quarterbacks that this team is just handing it off to Booker constantly. That helps the total in a couple ways. Number one it means the clock keeps rolling here. Number two it plays into the strength of the USC defense which is stopping the run. I think this game is much lower scoring than most expect.

The under is 3-0-1 in Utah's last 4 conference games. The under is 8-1-1 in USC's last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 3-0-1 in Utah's last 4 overall. The under is 7-1-1 in Utah's last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. A 21-2 angle. Take the under big. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Total of the Month* The Ohio State Buckeyes have scored at least 50 points in four straight games. I'm not sure the Buckeyes can get to 50 points against a decent Penn State defense, but I think they can get a lot closer than most believe. J.T. Barrett has been absolutely amazing quarterbacking this Ohio State team. The Buckeyes offense is having play makers step up around him as well. They have talent at the wide receiver position and they have two very good tight ends. The Buckeyes have found a very good runner in Ezekiel Elliot. Ohio State is going to make a lot of defenses look bad this year. The Buckeyes defense still has a long ways to go though. Hackenberg and the Nittany Lions should break some big plays against a secondary that still isn't very good. I expect Ohio State to jump out to a lead and keep their foot on the gas. The Nittany Lions score plenty to push this one over.

The over is 5-0 in the Buckeyes last 5 overall. The over is 6-0 in the Buckeyes last 6 following a win. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after giving up 20 points or less. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS win. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 40 points or more. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 conference games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after a win by 20 points or more. A 33-0 angle. Take the over big! TOP Total of the Month 

*4 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Clemson Tigers offense isn't the same without DeShaun Watson under center. I really think Watson is going to be a tremendous player in this offense, but he's out with a broken hand now. Cole Stoudt is the man getting the start here, and Stoudt is dinged up himself. Behind Stoudt, the Clemson offense has struggled to get going. Syracuse isn't any good on offense, and the Clemson defense is one of the best in the country. Look for the Tigers defensive line to flex their muscles in this one. Clemson also lost their top running back last week, so the Tigers have some real issues on offense. I see a defensive struggle here.

The under is 4-0 in Clemson's last 4 games after giving up less than 20 points. The under is 6-0 in Clemson's last 6 following a win. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 after allowing 275 yards or less. The under is 7-0 in Clemson's last 7 after gaining 125 yards or less on the ground in 2 straight games. A 23-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Total Value* This is the perfect combination of two teams who throw the ball nearly every play and two secondaries who are just dreadful when it comes to defending the pass. Doughty is having a tremendous season under Coach Brohm at Western Kentucky and this Old Dominion defense may be the worst he has faced all year. Heinecke is a star in the making for ODU and the NFL scouts really like him a lot. Both of these teams play very fast and there are going to be a bunch of possessions in this game. Look for this one to get into the 80's as both teams light up the scoreboard. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Totals TKO* The Toledo Rockets and UMass Minutemen both like to air it out early and often. Neither team is any good at defending the pass. The Minutemen have gotten a major boost from transfer quarterback Blake Frohnapfel who has been far better than most expected. UMass has been getting better and better offensively every week. This is a team that was awful offensively last year and the oddsmakers are having a hard time catching up to their new style of play. Toledo's offense is way too quick and athletic for a poor UMass defense. The Rockets had a week off before this game and their offense should be clicking with some key injured players getting back in the lineup. Bombs away in this one. Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Early Bird Special* The Navy Midshipmen run the football nearly every down, and San Jose State likes to run the football as well. I like playing unders with teams that run it this often because the clock keeps ticking and there are far fewer plays. San Jose State's offense took a big hit when their best running back was suspended indefinitely this week. The Spartans defense has been pretty good against the run and they have played a triple option team a lot in recent years so this is more familiar to them. Navy's Keenan Reynolds is banged up and that is slowing down this Midshipmen offense. The under is 8-1 in Navy's last 9 after scoring 40 points or more. The under is 4-0 in SJ State's last 4 on turf. A 12-1 angle. Take the under. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Play Total DOMINATION* The Boise State Broncos and BYU Cougars both like to play at a quick tempo. That means we'll see plenty of snaps in this one, which is obviously a big boost for an over play. The posted total here comes in several points below where I expected it. These two teams combined for 967 yards of total offense when they met last year. Both defenses are significantly worse than they were last season. Grant Hedrick and the Boise State offense have put up 51 and 37 points in the last two games. Christian Stewart is doing a solid job at quarterback for BYU. The Cougars topped 600 yards in a 42-35 loss to Nevada last week. Both of these teams are turnover prone, and a defensive score or two here wouldn't be a big surprise. The public perception of these two teams as strong defenses is no longer the case. That's giving us value on the over. The over is 4-0 in BYU's last 4 games. The over is 6-2 in Boise State's last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. Take the over big! 

*4 Star SEC Total Takedown* I was extremely impressed by the Georgia Bulldogs defense in their win last week over Missouri. Georgia's defense totally stonewalled a pretty decent Missouri offense led by Maty Mauk in that game. They pitched a shutout on the road in Columbia. Arkansas' defense gave up only 14 points against an Alabama offense with a bunch of weapons too. These are two teams that stop the run well. That's important here because that's pretty much all these two offenses do. That being said, I see a lot of running clock and solid work from both defenses in the front seven. A tight game here with the defenses controlling. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Hidden GEM Total* The SMU Mustangs are a really bad football team. They did show a little bit of hope on the offensive end in their last game against East Carolina though. As bad as the SMU offense is, they should be able to score several times on Cincinnati who is among the worst defenses in the nation. The Bearcats secondary has been absolutely torn up by everyone this year. SMU's defense is awful, and Gunner Kiel and the Bearcats passing game is excellent. Cincinnati could throw for 500 plus yards in this game and it wouldn't surprise me one bit. I expect Cincinnati to score at least 40 points in this one. 

The over is 4-0 in SMU's last 4 overall. The over is 7-0 in their last 7 October games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after giving up 40 plus points in a game. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after giving up 280 yards or more through the air. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after losing by 20 points or more. The over is 10-1 in their last 11 following a loss. A 33-1 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star ACC Total Value* The Clemson Tigers aren't the same team without DeShaun Watson at quarterback. Watson broke his hand last week in the team's narrow victory over Louisville. The Tigers offense was a mess after Watson left. Cole Stoudt has experience, but he just isn't all that good. Stoudt is also playing slightly dinged up, so Clemson's playbook will probably look a little different this week. Look for more running from Clemson and not quite as quick of a tempo. Boston College will play to force Stoudt to beat them through the air and I don't think he can do it. The Eagles slow the game down and like to run the ball a bunch, so the clock should keep ticking away in this one. I think this one is a real defensive battle. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB MAC Total Takedown* The Central Michigan Chippewas have a couple great offensive players in Titus Davis and Thomas Rawls. Both of these guys missed time earlier this year, and the Chippewas offense struggled. Rawls has carried it 40 times in both of the team's last two games. He has quickly become the best running back in the MAC. Davis was great last year and he's getting cranked up again now that he's healthy. He's the best receiver in the MAC, and no one from this Ball State secondary can match his athleticism. Ball State plays quickly and they have found a better quarterback the last couple weeks who helps them move the ball. The Chippewas defense is no better than mediocre. This posted total is a few points too low. Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The UMass Minutemen are a team that have made me a lot of money with the 'over' so far this year. UMass has had tons of trouble scoring the past few seasons, but they got a new quarterback this year and he has sparked the team in a big way. Blake Frohnapfel was stuck behind Rakeem Cato at Marshall the last couple years, but now he is thriving at UMass. With him at the helm, the Minutemen are killing teams through the air. Eastern Michigan's defense is absolutely atrocious, and UMass will likely put up 40 points or more. Eastern Michigan's offense got a spark from a freshman quarterback last week, and UMass' defense is really bad. This number isn't terribly high, and I see the potential for huge plays back and forth all the way through this one. Really bad defenses and improving offenses. 

The over is 4-0 in E. Michigan's last 4 following an ATS win. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 200 yards or more on the ground. The over is 5-0-1 in UMass' last 6 games. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 games after gaining 450 yards or more last game. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 on turf. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 following an ATS win. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 conference games. A 30-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB MAC Total* The Bowling Green Falcons have a new offensive system under Coach Dino Babers this year. The Falcons are doing great on offense even without starting quarterback Matt Johnson. Why have they been disappointing overall? Bowling Green went from having the best defense in the MAC, to having one of the worst defenses in the entire nation. Western Michigan has a good young quarterback and a good young running back. The Broncos have scored 34 points or more in four of their six games so far this year. Western Michigan has tons of defensive issues, so Bowling Green should put up a bunch. A back and forth high scoring affair. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Early Bird Special* The UCF Knights and Tulane Green Wave are two teams with some severe issues on the offensive end. UCF has an inconsistent quarterback in Justin Holman. Tulane will likely start Nick Montana for a second straight week with starting quarterback Tanner Lee injured. In their last two games, Tulane has put up 6 points and 12 points. The Tulane defense is the reason this team was so improved last year, and they are still solid this year. UCF's defense is always underrated under Coach O'Leary. Neither of these teams like to play fast, so I don't expect very many possessions in this game. This total is set rather low, but it should be even lower.

The under is 4-0 in Tulane's last 4 after gaining 170 passing yards or less last game. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their last game. The under is 4-0 in UCF's last 4 conference games. The under is 4-0 in the Knights last 4 after giving up 170 yards or less through the air last game. A 16-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star Big 12 Total Value* The West Virginia Mountaineers and Baylor Bears have scored 115 and 133 points the last two years when they have squared off. They might not score that many points this time around, but I think they'll score a bunch. Both teams air it out early and often, and Clint Trickett is playing some amazing football right now. We know Bryce Petty and the Bears offense can score in a hurry, but so can West Virginia. I think both teams have a good chance to put up 40 plus points here. A back and forth game with lots of quick scores. The total is high, but not high enough. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB TGIF Total DOMINATION* The Houston Cougars and Temple Owls meet Friday night in Houston. On paper, both of these defenses look solid, but when you look at who they have played you'll see the whole story. Temple's opponents have been Vanderbilt, Navy, Delaware State, Tulsa, and UConn. Only Navy has a decent offense, and that is a triple option attack. Houston's opponents have been UTSA, Grambling, BYU, UNLV, UCF, and Memphis. Only BYU and Memphis have decent offenses there, and those two put up 33 and 24 points on the Cougars. P.J. Walker is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the nation and I see him making plays in this one against an overrated Houston defense. The Cougars will probably play two quarterbacks here (Ward and O'Korn) and the Cougars like to play fast and keep the tempo moving. The over is the play at this low level. I had this line set at 55 points myself. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Late Night BAILOUT* The Nevada Wolf Pack played in a very high scoring game last week. The fact that they played an abnormally high scoring game last week sets up a lot of value on the under in this game. I suspect this line would have been in the upper 50's or about 60 before last weekend. Both Nevada and Colorado State take their time between snaps, so there won't be much hurry up offense in this game. The Wolf Pack defense is much improved from last year. Both teams will keep it on the ground quite a bit here as well. This number is several points too high.

The under is 8-0 in Nevada's last 8 following a loss. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 after allowing more than 280 passing yards last game. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following an ATS loss. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after giving up 200 yards or more on the ground. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 280 passing yards or more on offense last game. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 37-0 angle. Take the under.  

*4 Star CFB Total Value* These are two teams that are a total mess on the offensive side of the ball. Neither one is able to put together a consistent drive, and they both have tons of quarterback problems. FIU is starting to get more respectable as a team because their defense is playing well. Larry Coker always puts a solid defense on the field. This sets up as one of those really ugly games that no one wants to watch. The winner here might finish in the teens. Take the under. *Note- I would play the under for 4 stars down to 41 and 3 stars if the number is lower than that. Thank you.* 

*3 Star Oregon/UCLA Total DOMINATION* Both Oregon and UCLA were upset at home as double digit favorites last week. This game would have been even bigger had they won last week, but since the playoff system is in place now both teams still have a chance if they win out. These are two fast-paced offenses that do it with big plays. Big plays equal a lot of quick scores and that can lead to some real shootouts. These defenses are both far worse than they were a year ago. Marcus Mariota and Brett Hundley should have some big numbers in this contest. High scoring tight game here. Take the over. 

*4 Star Baylor/TCU Total CASH* The TCU Horned Frogs are known for their defense, but they are unbeaten right now because of their offense. The defense is still solid, but TCU's offense is no longer a liability. Even with their offense being weak last year, TCU lost 41-38 against Baylor in a back and forth game. Baylor kept things under wraps last week against Texas, but the Bears offense will be high-octane again Saturday. TCU has gotten a huge boost from Trevone Boykin's improved play. TCU is also playing at a much faster tempo this year than they have in the past. Both teams should get the ball plenty of times here. Lots of scoring chances.

The over is 5-0 in TCU's last 5 after gaining 450 yards or more last game. The over is 12-1 in Baylor's last 13 games after giving up 20 points or less last game. A 17-1 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Hidden GEM Total* The NC State Wolfpack offense was tremendous a couple weeks ago against Florida State, but they were shut out and completely embarrassed last week in a loss to Clemson. They'll find things much easier going in this one against a mediocre Boston College defense. The Eagles offense has gotten a major spark from Tyler Murphy and the running game. NC State's defense isn't any good, and they've been routinely allowing 40 plus points. It's a battle of two former Florida quarterbacks (the Gators probably want them back now), and I expect both quarterbacks to play well here. 

The over is 5-0 in BC's last 5 games following an ATS loss. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 conference games. The over is 7-0 in NC State's last 7 following an ATS loss. A 16-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Totals TKO* The Army Black Knights and Rice Owls meet in a game between two teams that love to run the football. Army virtually never throws the ball, and Rice only throws it occasionally. While I do expect both teams to gain quite a few yards in this one, with the clock ticking away constantly it will be hard for them to get into the 60's. I made this total 55 points, so I see several points worth of value. Without quick scores, a total in the 60's is typically not attainable. Look for long drives that eat up a bunch of time to make it difficult for these two to reach this lofty number. Take the under here. 

*4 Star CFB Friday Night Lights CASH* The New Mexico Lobos have one of the worst defenses in the nation. That's why when I saw a total of 46 points in this game, I jumped on the over immediately. San Diego State has a freshman quarterback starting here, and I know he didn't play well in his first start, but he should look better against this New Mexico defense. Also, Pumphrey and company should rack up a bunch of yards on the ground against New Mexico. On the other side, the Lobos are improving as an offense. This is a team that gives defenses fits because of their option and pistol looks on offense. Bob Davie's team can run the football effectively against most squads. The final last year was 35-30 when these two met. It might be lower this time around, but I think this game still tops 50 points. The over is 11-5 in New Mexico's last 16 games overall. Take the over. 

**Added note- This line has moved all over the place throughout the week after I selected it early in the week. I would suggest this as a 4 star play up to 50 points and a 3 star play up to 52 points. Thank you.**

*5 Star NCAA FB Thursday TOP Play* The UCF Knights lost a lot when Blake Bortles and Storm Johnson went pro after last season. Not surprisingly, their offensive numbers have suffered in a big way. They still haven't found a reliable option at either quarterback or running back. UCF does continue to play terrific defense though, and they slow the game down by running the ball a lot and bleeding the clock in between plays. BYU is a totally different team without Taysom Hill at quarterback. Hill is out for the year with after suffering a leg injury last week. I expect that to make the BYU offense much more conservative. I also don't believe BYU will play as fast without their leader under center. UCF has played in several sloppy low scoring games already this year, and BYU is very capable of doing the same without their star offensive player. I had this total projected at 42 points, so I'm seeing a good amount of value here. Look for a defensive battle all the way. The under is 5-0 in BYU's last 5 Thursday games. The under is 5-1 in their last 6 road games. Take the under big! 

**Note- This line has moved in a big way since I selected it. I recommend this as a 5 star play down to 45.5 and as a 4 star play down to 44, I would play for 3 stars down to 43. Thank you. **

*3 Star CFB Late Night BAILOUT* When Washington State and Cal meet there are two things that are going to happen: there are going to be a ton of passing plays, and they are going to be a bunch of points. I don't like taking totals that are this high, but I do think this one should be even higher. I made this total 82 points. Jared Goff is a very underrated quarterback, and this Cal offense is among the best in the nation. Connor Halliday can air it out with the best of them, and this Cal defense is awful against the pass. Last year's game finished at 66 points, and that was with Cal blowing a ton of scoring opportunities. Cal is much better this year, and this game should be a close one. Watch the scoreboard light up in this contest.

The over is 3-0-1 in Washington State's last 4 October games. The over is 4-0-1 in Cal's last 5 after allowing 450 yards or more. The over is 4-0 in Washington State's last 4 after gaining 450 yards or more. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. A 16-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB SEC Total* The Kentucky Wildcats defense has impressed me this year. Kentucky did a great job defensively against an improving Florida offense, and they didn't allow Vanderbilt to score an offensive point last weekend. South Carolina's defense is much improved in recent weeks, and Kentucky still has a lot of room for improvement on offense. Another key factor in this game will be the weather. Wind gusts of 25 mph are expected during this game, which should lead to problems for the passing games. Expect a lot more running plays which means the clock will just keep ticking. The under is 10-3 in Kentucky's last 13 home games. Take the under. 

*4 Star Big 10 Total* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights running game isn't very good now without Paul James. He was their star running back and he's out with an injury. Michigan's defense hasn't been the reason for their problems this year. In fact, Michigan ranks ninth in the nation in total defense. Rutgers has a strong defensive front seven, and Michigan has no passing game to take advantage of Rutgers' weakness in the secondary. The weather here is expected to be rainy and windy, which is a big boost for the under. I expect a very sloppy low scoring game Saturday night. Take the under. 

*3 Star Stanford/Notre Dame Total* The Stanford Cardinal have the number one ranked defense in the nation. They are first in the nation at defending the pass. Notre Dame's offense is totally reliant on throwing the football right now. The Fighting Irish have no running game and they won't be able to run it against Stanford. The Stanford offense has taken a definite step backward without any elite running back in their stable this year. Notre Dame's defense has been very solid this year. This game will be played in windy conditions that make it tougher to throw which helps the under a lot here. Take the under in this one. 

*5 Star Alabama/Ole Miss TOP Total* The Alabama Crimson Tide defense is still elite. Alabama has totally dominated against the Ole Miss offense in recent years, and I think they'll fare very well against them again in this one. Bo Wallace is far too turnover prone, and he makes way too many bad decisions against a swarming defense like Alabama. The Rebels have scored a grand total of 21 points in their last three games against Alabama. Last year, Alabama pitched a shutout against Ole Miss. The Rebels defense is tremendous this year as well. While Blake Sims has been very good so far this year, this will be his toughest test thus far. The Rebels secondary hits hard and flies around the field. I see a low scoring game all the way here as both defenses flex their muscles. Take the under big! 

*5 Star CFB TOP Total of the Month* The Air Force Falcons and Navy Midshipmen both run the triple option. What does that mean? It means that both of these teams practice against the triple option on defense every single day. That's a huge advantage for the defenses in this game. The under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings between these teams, and the familiarity with the offense is absolutely the reason why. The main advantage of running a triple option offense is that most defenses aren't well prepared to defend it. That is not the case this weekend. Both teams will run it almost every down, which keeps the clock ticking away. I made the total on this game 48 points, so more than a touchdown lower than this line. 

The under is 6-0 in Navy's last 6 after allowing 450 yards or more last game. The under is 6-0 in Navy's last 6 after throwing for 170 yards or less. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after gaining 450 yards or more. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 2-0 in the last 2 games between these teams. A 23-0 angle. Take the under big! 

*3 Star NCAA FB Early Bird Special* The Miami (Ohio) Redhawks are a much better team than they were a year ago. Miami has the nation's longest losing streak at 21 games, but they have a real shot to snap that losing streak on Saturday. UMass' secondary is atrocious, and Miami's Andrew Hendrix is a quality quarterback. Chuck Martin is the new coach at Miami and he brings a much better offensive philosophy. UMass' defense is still terrible, but their passing game has been good this year as well. They have put up 38 points or more twice this year. I think this one gets into the 60's. 

The over is 4-0 in UMass' last 4. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 450 yards or more last game. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after running for 100 yards or less last game. A 17-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MAC Total Value* The Akron Zips and Eastern Michigan Eagles meet Saturday in Akron. The weather will be a factor here as showers and strong winds are expected in Akron on Saturday afternoon. Eastern Michigan's offense is dreadfully terrible. The Eagles "passing attack" is averaging just barely more than 3 yards per passing attempt this year, which is downright awful. Akron's defense has shown some major improvement this year, and the Eagles should struggle to score. Terry Bowden has never been one to run it up a great deal, so I think Akron is happy with a comfortable win here. I had this number at 45 points. Take the under. 

*4 Star Duke/Miami Total* The Miami Hurricanes and Duke Blue Devils have had tons of offensive fireworks the last two times they have played each other, and I see no reason to expect anything different this time. Duke's offense isn't missing a beat this year with Boone and Sirk at quarterback. They are improved in the backfield as well. Miami's defense has some serious problems and that certainly showed up last week when they allowed 41 points against a one-dimensional Nebraska offense. Miami has a freshman quarterback, but he's able to have some pretty solid success thanks to the parts around him. The Hurricanes have a star in Duke Johnson at running back, and the play makers at wide receiver are among the best in the nation. I set this total at 68 points. Take the over. 

*3 Star Missouri/South Carolina Total DOMINATION* The South Carolina Gamecocks secondary has some major problems this year. We saw that not only against Texas A&M, but also against East Carolina and even Vanderbilt at times. Maty Mauk is a far better player than most believe, and he should be able to lead this Tigers offense up and down the field. South Carolina's offensive line will have a big advantage here, and the Gamecocks should run right up and down the field against a Missouri defense that was torched by Indiana last week and struggled against Toledo earlier this year. I also expect this to be a very close game, and there is always a chance we get helped by overtime. The over is 7-0 in Missouri's last 7 games following a game where they had zero turnovers. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 games on grass. An 11-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Under Radar Total* The UTSA Roadrunners play tremendous defense under the leadership of Larry Coker. Coker is one of the most underrated coaches in the nation. This team totally shut down a very good Houston offense in week one. They were overmatched last game against Oklahoma State, but they'll matchup just fine against Florida Atlantic. The Owls defense is the strength of their team as well. Both of these teams like to play slowly and limit possessions, which is a big help when betting the under. I see very few big plays in this one. Look for long drives and field goals throughout this contest. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Hidden GEM Total* The Idaho Vandals are quietly becoming a pretty good offensive team. Paul Petrino is a good offensive mind, and he has a solid freshman quarterback in Linehan. Idaho should be able to score points on everyone on their schedule this year, but their issues are on the defensive side of the football. The Vandals defense is shredded to pieces on a weekly basis. South Alabama's offense has had a hard time in their last couple games, but a matchup with the Idaho defense should help fix their problems in a hurry. Idaho hasn't allowed less than 36 points in a game yet this year. Plenty of points to go around in this one. 

The over is 4-0 in Idaho's last 4 home games. The over is 7-0 in their last 7 on turf. The over is 6-0 in Idaho's last 6 conference games. A 17-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Mismatch Total* The Auburn Tigers like to play fast, and everyone knows that. Auburn will relish the opportunity to fix some of their offensive problems from their last game against Kansas State. Coach Malzahn is an offensive guru, and I know he had to be frustrated by the Tigers lack of efficiency on offense that game. Louisiana Tech's defense will be totally outclassed, and Auburn isn't going to let off the gas early in this one. Auburn could certainly put up 50 points by themselves in this one and it wouldn't be a surprise to me. Louisiana Tech's offense is much improved with Sokol at QB and lots of depth at running back. I expect them to be able to score some on an average Tigers defense. I lined this one at 68 points. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Totals Takedown* The Buffalo Bulls lost Khalil Mack after last year. He might have been the single most dominant defensive player in the nation last year. Not surprisingly, the Bulls defense has taken a major step backward this year. Miami (OH) didn't win a game last year, and they haven't won this year so far. Still, the Redhawks are clearly a much better team this year. The reason they have gotten much better is their offensive improvements. Hendrix is their quarterback and he used to be at Notre Dame. Chuck Martin is the new head coach and he worked with Hendrix in the past. Miami has been moving the ball much better so far this year. I made this line 62 points. Take the over. 

*4 Star MAC Total* The Bowling Green Falcons are a team I've done well with for 'over' plays this season. Dino Babers has implemented a new system for Bowling Green. The Falcons are playing extremely fast and scoring tons of points. The problem for them is they are also giving up loads of points. I never expected the Bowling Green defense to be this bad after being a strong unit in the past couple years, but for the purpose of playing overs that is an added benefit. UMass is a bad team in general, and they have given up tons of points to poor offenses already this year (Colorado, Vanderbilt, etc). Bowling Green likely puts up a really big number here. UMass is better on offense this year, and everyone has moved the ball easily on BG's defense. Take the over.

**Please note this line has moved in a big way since I selected this game on Tuesday- I would play the over for 4 stars up to 66 points and for 3 stars up to 71 points. Thank you.**

*4 Star Big 10 Totals TKO* The Indiana Hoosiers picked up a stunning road win at Missouri last week. That win certainly shocked me, and I think the Hoosiers played Missouri at the right time since they caught the Tigers looking ahead to South Carolina. Indiana's defense is among the worst in the nation. They were ripped for 39 first downs in a loss to Bowling Green. The Falcons had a backup quarterback playing in that game. Maryland's defense has been really disappointing this year as well, and injuries are costing them in a big way. Look for Diggs and the rest of the Terrapins wide receivers to have a field day against Indiana's pass defense. Indiana has play makers at RB and WR and they'll have a big day too. I think this game gets to the mid 70's. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Rutgers/Tulane Total* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights have their top two running backs injured right now. Gary Nova isn't a very good quarterback, and without James or Huggins in the backfield at tailback this offense isn't any good. Rutgers does have a strong front seven on defense though, and I think they'll make it really tough for Tulane to move the football. Tulane's defense is better than most believe, and the Green Wave have played in a lot of low scoring games in the past two seasons. My numbers made this total 49 points, so I see solid value on this game. Look for a sloppy performance from the two offenses. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Hidden GEM Total* New Mexico vs. New Mexico State is a solid intrastate rivalry game. These two teams have one thing in common: neither of them are good at all defensively. Both teams give up huge chunks of yardage on a consistent basis. New Mexico rolled up 66 points and 608 yards of offense last year. New Mexico State didn't cash in nearly as often with 17 points, but they did have 451 yards. The Aggies offense looks significantly better so far this year. It's hard to imagine either defense getting many stops in this game. Look for the scoreboard to light up in a big way here.

The over is 5-0 in the Lobos last 5 September games. The over is 9-1 in their last 10 after allowing 200 yards or more on the ground last game. The over is 5-0 in New Mexico State's last 5 after allowing 170 passing yards or less last game. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 280 yards or more through the air. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after rushing for 100 yards or less. A 27-1 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA FB Totals TKO* The Illinois Fighting Illini defense allowed 35.4 points per game last year, and they aren't any better this year. Texas State has an underrated quarterback in Tyler Jones. The Bobcats will be able to move the football consistently in this game. On the other side, Illinois' offense has improved with Wes Lunt under center. The Texas State defense is much weaker this year, and I think Illinois' strong offensive front will dominate in the trenches. The Fighting Illini offense has been good this year, and I see them putting up a big number in this game. The Fighting Illini will play fast and put pressure on Texas State right from the start. Take the over in this one. 

*4 Star CFB Total DOMINATION* The BYU Cougars and Virginia Cavs both have terrific defenses. In their matchup last year, neither team was able to get out of the teens. A similar game wouldn't surprise me at all on Saturday afternoon. This Virginia defense has shown how good they are against both UCLA and Louisville this season. BYU's defense is very talented, and the Cougars are always very tough to score against on their home field. The defense is the strength of both teams. Look for Virginia's defense to slow down Taysom Hill, and Virginia's offense is too one-dimensional to be able to have much success against a high quality offense. Take the under. 

*5 Star Florida/Alabama TOP Play Total* The Florida Gators offense should be better under Kurt Roper this year, but I'm not convinced they'll be far better right away against elite defenses. Alabama's defense didn't look great in their season opener against West Virginia, but they were missing leader Trey DePriest at the linebacker spot. In addition, Alabama didn't seem to be terribly interested in that season opener. It was as if they overlooked West Virginia. They aren't going to overlook Florida. This Alabama defense is one of the top five defenses in the country, and I don't see Florida having much success. Florida's defense was solid all of last year despite their horrible record. The Gators defense is very good again this year. Alabama has plenty of question marks at the quarterback spot, and the Gators are going to load up the box in this one. Nick Saban's teams always use up the clock and play slowly. The defenses should have the advantage all the way here. Take the under big! 

*4 Star Auburn/Kansas State Totals CASH* Bill Snyder is a very smart man. Snyder is one of the best coaches in the country, and he absolutely knows that it wouldn't be wise for his Kansas State team to get into an up and down affair with Auburn. The Tigers have far more playmakers and are much more likely to win if it is a high scoring game. Just like they did last year against Baylor, I look for Kansas State to try to milk the clock as much as they can and keep the ball away from Nick Marshall and company. The Auburn defense is a little better than they were a year ago, and Kansas State's offense hasn't impressed me thus far. This is a total that is set too high. I think this one should be set in the high 50's, so plenty of value on this line for me. Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB Totals TKO* The Arizona Wildcats and Nevada Wolfpack both like to get a lot of snaps off. There will be plenty of plays for each offense in this one, and Arizona's backfield combination of Solomon and Wilson. Nevada has a solid secondary, but their front seven isn't any good against the run game. Arizona is going to run it early and often here, and I think they'll have a lot of success. Cody Fajardo is an underrated quarterback and I expect him to find openings in the Arizona secondary that is very inexperienced. Look for both offenses to have little trouble moving the football in this contest. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Late Night BAILOUT* The Colorado Buffaloes have some major defensive problems. They allowed 38 points against a dreadful UMass offense last week. Last year they allowed 54 points against Arizona State. To put that into context though, you need to understand that Arizona State had 47 points at halftime and 54 points midway through the 3rd quarter before completely calling off the dogs. The Sun Devils defense was elite last year. This year Arizona State has some major problems on defense, so Colorado should put more on the board. Arizona State will probably still get their 45-50 points on Colorado too. A high scoring affair in Boulder on Saturday night.

The over is 5-0 in Arizona State's last 5 September games. The over is 5-0 in Colorado's last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 7-1 in Arizona State's last 8 after allowing 170 passing yards or less last game. A 17-1 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA FB Television Total* The Boston College Eagles host USC Saturday night. While Boston College isn't a talented team, they do play very hard for Coach Steve Addazio. The Eagles defense is likely to slow down USC a little more than most expect. Remember that USC is in a very bad spot here, because USC just won at Stanford and is in a letdown situation. Boston College's offense is terrible, and I would be surprised to see them put up anything more than 14 points in this game. Last year's game between these two was 35-7, and a total in the 40's sounds about right to me again this year. Too much value on the under for me to pass this one up. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Hidden GEM Total* The Idaho Vandals are quietly getting a much better offense. Idaho's quarterback is Mike Linehan (son of Scott Linehan from the NFL) and he is really impressing in this offense. Paul Petrino is getting this Idaho offense moving with a quick tempo offense and a lot of short passes that give their playmakers at wide receiver a chance to work in the open field. Western Michigan's defense was torched by Purdue, and Purdue's offense isn't any good. The Broncos offense is improving though, and Idaho regularly allows 40 points or more in a game. It's hard to imagine either team coming up with many stops in this one. This number is set too low.

The over is 5-0 in Idaho's last 5 on turf. The over is 7-1 in their last 8 following an ATS win. The over is 7-1 in their last 8 overall. The over is 5-1 in W. Michigan's last 6 road games. A 24-3 angle. Take the over.