*4 Star Play Under* The Ohio State Buckeyes have a good passing attack. Their problem has been an inability to run the football. Ohio State is 57th in the nation in yards per carry this year. Inside the Big Ten, Ohio State is averaging only 3.66 yards per carry in Big Ten play. Their offensive line has struggled in a big way. Michigan State ranks third in the nation in yards per carry allowed. Michigan State just held Maryland to 0.9 yards per carry last game. That's important because before that game Maryland had been the best rushing attack in the Big Ten.

Ohio State's secondary has been a major problem this year, but I don't think Michigan State has the weapons needed to shred this secondary like some other opponents have. The Spartans are badly banged up at wide receiver. Michigan State will try to slow the game down as they always do. 

The weather here should play a role in this game. The weather forecast calls for winds of 18-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. There is even a chance for some wind-blown snow showers in this one. That should limit Ohio State's passing attack and make both offenses more predictable.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The USC Trojans have a new play caller in this game (Clay Helton) and they get to go against the weakest defense in the Pac 12. In fact, Oregon State ranks 127th out of 130 teams in the country in yards per play allowed. USC is expected to get JT Daniels back for this game, and the USC passing game has a huge advantage here. USC's receivers should have a big day with a lot of open space and height advantages for them over the DB's. Oregon State is allowing a whopping 8.2 yards per play in Pac 12 action this season.

USC's defense has disappointed this year. Oregon State's offense has been much better than expected this season. Jake Luton came back last week for Oregon State and he threw for more than 300 yards against Colorado despite not playing any the first half. He gives the team a much better quarterback now. Look for Oregon State to get some big plays on offense as well. USC is without star linebacker Porter Gustin.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Tulane is all about running the football, and that's a good thing against this USF defense. USF has a good secondary, but they are weak in the front seven. USF ranks 103rd in yards per carry allowed. Tulane's offense ranks 42nd in the nation in rushing offense when adjusted for strength of schedule faced. Look for Tulane to run the ball early and often in this option offense and get some big gainers here.

South Florida's offense plays at a very quick tempo. The Bulls rank 8th in the nation in pace of play. They are up against a Tulane defense that ranks 81st in defensive yards per play when adjusted for strength of schedule faced. The Bulls should be able to move the ball well here. USF has a lot of speed on offense, and that should be hard for Tulane to defend.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* UMass was involved in a low scoring game against UConn due to the weather last week. They are going to be involved in another game with pretty extreme weather here, and I have to take under this high of a number.

The average forecast for this game calls for sustained winds of about 20 mph with gusts to 55 or 60 mph. That kind of weather completely changes the game. In fact, 20 mph sustained winds have made the under hit at a little over 63% in CFB in the long term. In this one we get sustained winds of that amount and some ridiculous gusts. 

While neither defense is good- it is important to note that UMass is without star quarterback Andrew Ford. Also, both of these teams are much worse running the football than throwing it. If the weather forecasts are right, they'll have to run it more here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Ole Miss Rebels have a way of making everything high scoring. This is a really explosive offense with Jordan Ta'amu at the helm, but they also might have the worst defense in the SEC. 

South Carolina has moved to an uptempo offense. Both of these teams rank in the top 25 in the country in terms of pace of play. That will mean a bunch of possessions for both offenses, and Ole Miss games have a lot of big plays both ways because of their strong offense and weak defense. 

The SEC doesn't normally see these shootouts, so the oddsmakers kept the total a little too low here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Texas A&M and Auburn meet on Saturday afternoon. Auburn has been a great under team so far this year, and I don't see that changing here. 

Texas A&M ranks 112th in the nation in tempo. The Aggies are trying to establish a run game more with Jimbo Fisher as their head coach. The problem for them here is Auburn's defensive line is tremendous, and they should get into the backfield often.

Auburn's offensive line is a major problem, and Texas A&M has been strong on the defensive front this year. Stidham isn't playing with any confidence. 

Auburn has forced every game this year into a low scoring battle, and Texas A&M wants a physical low scoring game as well. The styles of these teams should lead to a tight low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* A lot of tempo should be expected here. These two teams rank 5th and 2nd out of 130 teams in the nation in terms of tempo.

Wake Forest's running game is the strength of their offense, and that is where they have a big edge here. Wake Forest's rushing attack ranks 24th in the nation compared to the Syracuse run defense of 87th. 

Syracuse is a balanced offense, and this Wake Forest defense has been very weak against both passing and running teams this year. Wake Forest is 115th in the nation in yards per play allowed. 

The Syracuse defense is one that I have singled out as in line for regression especially since they have been very fortunate on third down so far this year. 

Last year when these two teams met the final score was 64-43.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Maryland Terrapins offense is all about the running game. Maryland ranks third in the country in yards per carry this year, but they played a relatively soft schedule. Maryland still ranks 11th in rushing offense when adjusted for strength of schedule played, but Michigan State's defense ranks 7th in rushing defense. The Spartans aren't likely to let Maryland just run the ball consistently. Maryland hasn't proven capable of moving it through the air against anyone decent this season.

Michigan State's offense is very weak right now. Their top two wide receivers from before the year are both out now. The Spartans rank 125th in the nation in yards per carry on offense. Maryland's defense ranks 27th in yards per play allowed so far this year. 

Michigan State always plays slowly under Mark Dantonio, and Maryland is playing very slowly this year. In fact, Maryland's tempo in Big Ten play alone would rank them among the ten slowest paced teams in the entire country. 

The weather here is an added bonus. The average of 5 different forecasts I reviewed is 16 mph winds with gusts to 25 mph. That is enough to slow the passing games down some more.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a bunch of points for a game between two teams with bad offenses. Bowling Green is 98th in the nation in yards per play. Kent State is 108th in the nation in yards per play. 

Both of these teams are very weak on defense, and that's why this game has gotten bet up, but I see another key factor in this game. The forecast calls for winds of 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph as the game moves on. That's a lot of wind for this high of a total. In the long run games with winds of 15 mph or greater in NCAA FB have gone under the total at about 57%. 

Bowling Green slowed their tempo down in their first game under Pelini as head coach as well. The Falcons are likely to continue to play a bit slower now, and I would expect some more running the football.

With the wind and this high of a total, I have to play the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Syracuse Orange have two very good quarterbacks. NC State's defense isn't as good as their statistics would suggest. NC State's defense was exposed last week against Clemson, and I expect them to struggle the rest of the way. NC State's secondary is no better than mediocre, and they can be beaten deep by good wide receivers.

The Syracuse defense is in line for some major regression to the mean. Syracuse is only allowing opponents to convert on 24.76% on 3rd down. That isn't going to continue. Syracuse ranks 83rd in yards per play overall and 96th in ypc allowed. Why would a defense that can't stop the run be good on third downs? It's a perfect setup for regression and many more points allowed going forward for Syracuse. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Arkansas State's offense was disappointing in the non-conference, but they are going to score a bunch of points in the Sun Belt. The Red Wolves have the best quarterback in the conference in Hansen and they have a great group of wide receivers. Arkansas State also ranks 32nd in the nation in tempo. 

Louisiana-Lafayette ranks 14th in the nation in yards per play. The Ragin' Cajuns have some really talented skill position players, and they have been an explosive plays machine. Louisiana has 24 plays of 30 yards or more which is 11th most in the country. 

Both Arkansas State and Louisiana are playing faster inside the Sun Belt than they were in non-conference contests. Arkansas State is 100th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Louisiana is 121st in the nation in yards per play allowed. Fast-paced and big plays back and forth.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cal Golden Bears defense has been very good this year. Cal ranks 18th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Cal is allowing opponents to convert on only 31.78% of their 3rd downs this year. The Bears should be able to slow down a Washington offense that isn't quite as dynamic as it was a couple years ago. 

Jake Browning's quarterback play has been very poor for Washington this year. They have scored TD's on only 51% of their trips into the red zone, and much of that has to do with Browning's poor decision making. 

Cal's offense has been a mess all year. The Bears have turned the ball over 20 times this season. Cal doesn't have any explosiveness either. Cal only has 7 plays of 30 yards or more all season, which is in the bottom 5 in the country.

As far as tempo- both teams have slowed their pace of play inside the conference. Chris Petersen has shown that he will play things conservatively if Washington gets a lead, and they are a double digit favorite here. 

This is a low total, but Washington has already played 3 games that have stayed under this total. Cal has played 4 games that have stayed under this number.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Houston ranks first in the nation in tempo. South Florida ranks seventh in the nation in tempo. Briles is a great offensive mind, and Houston's offense is firing on all cylinders right now. Houston hasn't scored less than 41 points in a game all year. The Cougars are averaging 48.7 points per game this year. 

Houston has a very good running game. The Cougars are averaging 6.16 ypc this year. Houston is far better in the running game than most people realize. Why is that important? The way to beat South Florida's defense is on the ground with explosive runs. Houston should be able to do just that. 

South Florida is averaging 35.6 points per game this year. The Bulls have a lot of potential on the offensive end.

These are two very explosive offenses. Houston has 26 plays of 30 yards or more this year. South Florida has 24 plays of 30 yards or more. 

Tons of tempo and a high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Buffaloes are likely to either be without Laviska Shenault this weekend or he will be limited. Colorado needs Shenault healthy for later in the season because they are still in the Pac 12 South race. I would be surprised if they want to risk him playing with his turf toe injury in this one.

Oregon State is easily the worst team in the Pac 12. The Beavers are likely to be starting their third string quarterback (Colletto) in this one. Their first two quarterbacks are both injured. Colletto is seen as more of a runner, and his passing accuracy is a big question mark. Oregon State is averaging only 4.65 yards per play in Pac 12 action. 

Colorado's offense isn't even close to the same without Shenault. They can and will score quite a few on Oregon State, but they aren't nearly as explosive. Colorado will likely eat up more time in the process of scoring. Additionally, Mike MacIntyre isn't a guy who has typically run up the score on opponents. 

Both teams are playing significantly slower in recent weeks, likely because of their offensive injuries to key players.

The wind will be a factor here. Sustained winds of 15 mph with gusts to 26 mph are forecast during this game. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UL Monroe Warhawks are a great over team. UL Monroe is one of the worst defenses in the nation. They are 126th in the nation in yards per play allowed. The Warhawks have what is arguably the worst pass defense in the nation. 

Texas State is mediocre defensively. The Bobcats offense is a weakness, but they have shown some very positive signs in recent weeks in the passing game, and I think they will be able to get it going against this UL Monroe pass defense. Texas State has scored 31 points or more in 3 of their last 5 games. 

UL Monroe's offense should light up the scoreboard in the Sun Belt. Monroe has underachieved on offense so far this year. The Warhawks have only scored on 65% of their red zone trips, and they have turned the ball over 13 times. They just posted 45 points on Coastal Carolina and they will score a lot in this conference.

UL Monroe pushes the pace and I think they are likely to have the lead. That forces Texas State to keep the tempo going too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers host the Memphis Tigers in a non-conference game on Saturday. Both of these teams play relatively quickly, at 45th and 21st in tempo. They are both good offenses as well, but this number is extreme.

When adjusted for strength of schedule faced, Missouri ranks in the top 20 in the nation in rushing defense. Memphis is first in the nation in yards per carry, but the Tigers have feasted on terrible defenses on the ground. They won't be up against a weak defensive front this time.

Missouri has done most of their work in the air, but winds of 20 mph on Saturday will make it very tough to throw. 

Games with a high total with strong winds have multiple very strong systems on the under. I would have passed on this game without the wind, but I'll take the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This number is too high given the circumstances of this game. First of all, it is hard to say how Penn State will view this game. They have lost two straight games and their preseason hopes are now gone. How do they respond? I don't see that as a positive for the over.

Indiana has time and time again played tight games against high quality Big Ten opponents, they just haven't been able to get over the hump. Allen is a defensive-minded coach, and I think his defense will be well-prepared for this big home game against Penn State. 

Though both teams are playing a little bit fast, they are only at 41st and 43rd in pace of play, so it is nothing extreme. The Penn State defense has been excellent this year too. Penn State is 21st in the nation in yards per play allowed. They have played a tough schedule as well, and this defense has looked very good even in losses to Ohio State and Michigan State. 

Indiana's offense hasn't been efficient. They are 93rd in the nation in yards per play. The Penn State offense doesn't have the same kind of explosive ability from the running back spot this year with Barkley gone.

I've gone with an average of 5 weather forecasts for this game, and they are calling for 19 mph sustained winds during this game. High totals with a lot of wind have some great long-term systems for under bettors.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Kent State Golden Flashes and the Akron Zips meet in a big rivalry game on Saturday in Kent. This one is for the Wagon Wheel trophy. 

Kent State and Akron are both very weak offensively. Kent State has allowed a ridiculous 29 sacks this year. That's worst in the country (130 teams). Akron has a good defensive line and they should be able to get in the backfield and put Kent State behind the chains here. 

The Akron offense ranks 119th in the country in yards per play. Akron is averaging only 3.36 yards per carry on the year. 

Kent State plays quickly, but they aren't efficient at all. Akron's offense severely lacks the big play potential. The Zips have only 6 plays of 30 yards or more all season.

Kent State's defense isn't very good, but this Akron defense is very good. The Zips are 37th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Weather should be an issue here. An average of five forecasts in the Kent area shows temperatures in the upper 40's with winds around 15 mph guesting to 20 mph, and a 50% chance of showers during this game. That's a big plus for the under.

Take the under. 

*5 Star CFB Top Play Total of the WEEK* The Clemson Tigers offense is excellent with Trevor Lawrence at the helm. Lawrence is playing with a lot of confidence, and he has a lot of weapons around him. Clemson's coaching staff has talked about wanting to push the tempo even more than they are now. Clemson already ranks 34th in pace of play in the nation. They will push the pace here.

North Carolina State has a very good quarterback in Ryan Finley. Finley is the best quarterback Clemson has faced so far this year. What is Clemson's weakness? Clearly, it is their secondary. The Tigers looked really bad in the secondary against Texas A&M earlier this year, and the NC State passing game should exploit this weakness. 

NC State's defense ranks 66th in yards per play allowed. The Wolfpack are 16th in scoring defense. What does this mean? They are due for some serious regression to the mean. This NC State defense isn't nearly as good as they have looked so far this year. Clemson should move the ball easily here.

Both teams can exploit the other defenses weakness here. The pace will stay quick throughout. 

Take the over. TOP Total of the Week. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather for this game is set to be a big problem for both offenses. The average forecast between 5 different forecasts I looked at here calls for 48 degrees with average winds of 26 mph and gusts above 30 mph. There is also a 40% chance of rain showers during this game. These conditions are about as drastic as you will see this time of the year, especially with those wind gusts.

Neither team is efficient at running the football, and with these conditions they will have to run it much more often.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This one originally wouldn't have made my card, but with the weather forecast here I have to take the under. An average of 5 weather forecasts I researched came up with 21 mph sustained winds with gusts to 30 mph. There is a 30% chance of snow during this game as well.

Blindly taking unders with winds of 20mph or greater has hit at a rate higher than 60% in the past 10 years. 

This is a rivalry game where you would expect both teams to be very motivated, and in general that helps the under as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Iowa Hawkeyes host the Maryland Terrapins on Saturday. Maryland is extremely one-dimensional on offense. Maryland has to be able to run the football or they can't move the ball. Maryland ranks 10th in the nation in yards per carry, but they haven't gone against many really good defenses against the run. That all changes when they play against Iowa on Saturday. Iowa is 5th in the nation in ypc allowed at only 2.69. The Hawkeyes are always strong in the front seven on defense, and that is the case again this year.

The tempo for both teams points toward an under. Iowa ranks 105th out of 130 in terms of tempo. Maryland ranks 110th in tempo. What about how often they are running the ball? Maryland runs on 66.4% of their offensive plays. Iowa runs on 57% of their offensive plays. This will mean a lot of moving clock. 

The weather here could be a bonus. The current forecast calls for 15 mph winds with gusts to 20 mph during this one. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a game I considered passing on because of injuries on the Wisconsin defensive side of the ball, but this number is too with all factors considered. 

Wisconsin plays at an extremely slow tempo. The Badgers rank in the bottom ten in terms of pace of play. Illinois ranks is right around the average when it comes to tempo.

The Illinois offense has been dreadful of late. They scored only 7 points last week against Purdue, and the Boilermakers have been only mediocre on defense this year.

The weather forecast here pushes me over the top on playing this under. The forecast calls for 20 mph sustained winds with gusts to 30 mph. There are some very strong angles on betting unders with heavy wind, and this is a high total for a Wisconsin game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Toledo Rockets don't have the same kind of offensive talent they have had in recent seasons. They lost a star quarterback and running back in the last couple years. Toledo is only 48th in the nation in yards per play this year. Toledo has only 14 plays of 30 yards or more on the season thus far (that is 56th best in the country). Buffalo's defense has excelled at stopping the big plays too. Buffalo has allowed only 9 plays of 30 yards or more on the season.

Buffalo's offense relies pretty heavily on Tyree Jackson and big plays through the air. Jackson is a really good quarterback, but winds of 20 mph and rain showers are forecast here. That's a clear negative for this Buffalo offense, and I think they'll have to be more conservative in this one. 

High totals with a lot of wind have some great long-term systems for under bettors.

This is a key battle in the MAC- and one where both teams should be very motivated. That generally benefits the under as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Stanford Cardinal have previously been thought of as a great defensive team. A few years ago that was the case. This year they aren't good defensively. Stanford ranks 70th in the nation in yards per play, and they haven't played many great offenses. The Cardinal have also been very fortunate when it comes to red zone defense. Stanford has allowed a touchdown on only 40 percent of opponents drives into the red zone. That isn't going to continue all year long.

Arizona State's offense is solid. Wilkins has done a nice job at quarterback for them, and Harry is an elite wide receiver. Arizona State's offensive line has been very good this year, and that helps against a Stanford defense that is aggressive rushing the passer. 

Stanford's offense has been more explosive this year. They already have 14 plays of 30 yards or more. Bryce Love will likely play at least some here, though he isn't 100 percent. The Cardinal now have a more efficient passing game, and the Sun Devils defense is weak against the pass. 

The over is 4-0 in Stanford's last 4 road games. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Colorado and USC are both moving relatively quickly on offense. USC's offense has improved as Daniels has gotten acclimated to this offense. He clearly has a lot of talent, and USC has some good skill position players around him.

Colorado's Montez is a very good veteran quarterback. This USC defense is only 58th in the country in yards per play allowed. They give up too many big plays and that should be an issue here.

Colorado's defense hasn't been tested by top notch offenses yet. USC should be able to get their offense going here.

Take the over.

*4 Star Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders offense had trouble getting going early in the season. MTSU has a great quarterback in Brent Stockstill and with Ty Lee on the outside he has a very good wide receiver to get the ball to. I was very impressed with MTSU's offense last week. Marshall is an excellent defense (best in the conference), and MTSU put up 34 points and 420 yards on them. MTSU was shut down by Vanderbilt and Georgia in the early going, but they aren't going to be facing defenses of that caliber anytime soon. MTSU pushes the pace, and I see no reason to expect FIU to slow them down much here.

FIU has been much better on offense than I expected them to be. James Morgan has fit in very well at quarterback. Morgan is averaging 9.79 yards per pass attempt. Him getting the ball up the field so much has really allowed this running game to have more success as well. FIU is 23rd in the nation in yards per play on offense. 

Conference USA is well known for its high scoring affairs. The totals move downward here doesn't make any sense to me. I see a game with quite a bit of tempo and two quarterbacks playing well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Virginia Cavaliers have adopted a new style of offense this year. Bronco Mendenhall's team is running the ball early and often. That plays into the Miami defensive strength though. Miami is 7th in the nation allowing only 2.73 yards per carry, and their defensive line is stacked with talent. The Virginia offensive front isn't likely to be able to get much of a push here.

Miami is running the ball on 61% of their plays this year. Perry has done a good job at quarterback now, but the offense has slowed down tempo-wise. 

We should see a bunch of running clock in this game, and both defenses have been better at stopping the run than the offenses have at running the ball. The matchups appear to favor the defense.

I would expect a tight low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*5 Star NCAA FB TOP Total of the WEEK* The UTSA Roadrunners have the worst offense in college football. UTSA just won 20-3 against Rice, but they had only 178 yards of offense in that game. Their two touchdowns were on drives of 31 yards and 3 yards. Rice turned the ball over 4 times, and UTSA was handed their points in that one. UTSA is last in yards per play in the country. There are even clear signs of regression for their offense when it comes to scoring. UTSA has scored on 100% of their red zone trips so far this year. That can't continue. They are near the bottom in allowing sacks, so that puts them behind the chains often. The lack of explosive plays from UTSA is ridiculous. They have only 2 plays of 30 yards or more in six games! 

Louisiana Tech ranks 69th in the country in yards per play. They have been inconsistent this year. LA Tech has also been fortunate in that they have scored on 100% of their red zone trips this year. A sign of regression.  LA Tech's defense has been good though. They are 47th in the nation in yards per play allowed. It's hard to imagine UTSA scoring very many at all here. 

UTSA has always been good defensively under Coach Wilson. UTSA is a very physical team and they allow only 3.45 yards per carry. I expect LA Tech to get the lead here and as they try to salt this one away later in the game, the UTSA defense should hold their own. 

Last year, LA Tech beat UTSA 20-6. I expect another defensive battle here. 

Take the under. TOP Play. CFB TOP Total of the Week

*3 Star Play Over* The UL Monroe Warhawks and the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have two of the bottom ten defenses in the nation. UL Monroe's offense has underachieved so far this year, but I expect them to put up some big numbers in Sun Belt action. UL Monroe has scored in the red zone only 58.33% of the time this year. That can't continue long term. That's a number that is due for some positive regression. This team has quite a few weapons and they have a speed advantage over the Coastal Carolina defense.

Coastal Carolina's offense has been much more efficient this year. Joe Moglia being back has really changed things for this team. The triple option has been really effective, and they are up against a terrible ULM defense here. ULM is 128th in the nation out of 130 teams in yards per play allowed this year. They are giving up 7.41 yards per play. 

Coastal Carolina's defense is second worst in the nation allowing 6.81 yards per carry on the season. Both of these defenses give up explosive plays by the bunches. Look for a lot of long plays from scrimmage here.

The over is 20-6 in ULM's last 26 conference games. The over is 12-5 in Coastal's last 17 games.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather in Denton, Texas isn't expected to be good at all for this game. A temperature in the mid 60's with winds of 15 mph and gusts to 20 mph and heavy rain are forecast for Saturday. That's some miserable weather for two teams that are reliant on the passing game. While the under is always helped by wind and rain, it is much more of a benefit when you catch a spot where teams are normally passing teams and they must try to get something going on the ground. That's the spot here. 

Both of these defenses have been better this year. Despite playing a weak schedule, Southern Miss is 114th in the nation in yards per carry, so if they have to run the ball it isn't likely to go very well for them. North Texas lost their star in Wilson from the backfield last year. The Mean Green are 94th in the nation in yards per carry. The poor weather would at least somewhat neutralize the best player on the field (Mason Fine QB for North Texas) as well. 

The sharp money is clearly on the under here, and I fully agree. This line is about where it should be without any weather issues. There are clear weather issues in this one- and with two teams reliant on throwing it around, that makes a big difference.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Auburn Tigers and Mississippi State defenses have been dominating this year. Both are extremely strong on the defensive front. What's the weakness of these offenses? The offensive line. That should make both quarterbacks uncomfortable, and lead to a lot of negative plays. Both of these offenses struggle when they get behind the sticks. 

Auburn's offense is only averaging 5.42 yards per play, which is 91st best in the country. Their offensive line has been a huge problem this year. 

Mississippi State is reliant on the run game, and Auburn's defense is 10th in the country allowing only 2.75 yards per carry.

A defensive battle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas A&M Aggies host the Kentucky Wildcats in a big SEC showdown on Saturday night. 

Kentucky's defense ranks 14th best in the nation allowing only 4.46 yards per play. Kentucky is 5th in pass defense (yards per play allowed). 

Kentucky will slow the tempo down as much as possible. They rank 118th in tempo in the country of 130.

Texas A&M also moves slowly at 106th in the country in tempo. The Aggies defense is better than their numbers would indicate. Alabama racked up a bunch of yards on this team.

With both teams preferring to run, the clock should keep moving here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Ole Miss Rebels and the ULM Warhawks both move quickly. They both rank in the top 40 in the nation in tempo. 

Ole Miss takes a lot of deep shots in the passing game. They have some tremendous wide receivers who will have a big advantage in this game. Ole Miss has a whopping 26 plays of 30 yards or more in only five games so far this year. The Rebels will get a bunch of explosive plays against this weak ULM defense. ULM ranks 116th out of 130 teams in the country in yards per play allowed.

The Ole Miss defense is very weak as well. The Rebels rank 102nd in yards per play allowed, and they are allowing 38 points per game this season. ULM's offense has underachieved some this year, and I think we'll see them put up plenty of points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Iowa Hawkeyes defense has been tremendous this year. Iowa ranks 7th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They are giving up only 2.67 ypc (8th best in country). Iowa's offense sits at 72nd in the country in yards per play. Iowa is only 89th in yards per carry offensively this year. 

Minnesota ranks 120th in the nation in yards per play. The Golden Gophers are averaging only 3.63 yards per carry. They have suffered some serious injury problems at the running back spot. This Minnesota team doesn't have enough playmakers on offense to score much on good defense, and this is the best defense they have played yet by a large margin.

Both of these teams run the ball about 61% of the time on offense. Both teams rank among the 25 slowest teams in the country in terms of tempo. There will be a lot of running the ball and playing slowly, which will eat away at the clock here.

Both of the last two years this matchup has stayed well under the posted total. Winds of 10-12 mph are in forecast and that helps the under a bit as well.

It's a low number, but it's low for a reason.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Central Michigan offense is a mess this year. The Chippewas are 128th in the country in yards per play on offense. They have a weak offensive line and a lack of playmakers at the skill positions on offense. Central Michigan has only 8 plays of 20 yards or more all season. 

Buffalo has a good quarterback in Tyree Jackson, but the Bulls have a very weak offensive line and a subpar rushing attack. 

As bad as the Central Michigan offense is, the defense has been great. They are 26th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Their strong defensive line has a big edge in this game. Central Michigan should be able to get heat on Jackson in this game.

Buffalo is 32nd in the nation in yards per play allowed. The Bulls have a good pass rush and are a well-balanced defense.

The weather could play a role here. A 60% chance of rain is in the forecast and 10 mph winds. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Washington Huskies and the BYU Cougars play a similar style of football. Both are very physical teams, and both prefer to run the football and use up the clock. There should be a lot of running clock in this one, and the defenses are the strengths of both teams.

BYU is 106th out of 130 in the nation in tempo. Washington is 101st in tempo. Both defenses have been elite at not giving up big plays this year. BYU has only allowed 4 plays of 30 yards or more in four contests. Washington has only allowed a single play of 30 yards or more in four contests. 

BYU wants to establish the run with Squally Canada, but Washington will likely feel good enough about their pass defense to commit a little extra help in the box here. 

Jake Browning has regressed at quarterback, and this BYU defense should do a good job holding their own on the defensive line.

The under is 6-0 in BYU's last 6 vs. a Pac 12 opponent. The under is 5-0 in BYU's last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 September games. The under is 6-0 in Washington's last 6 September games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing less than 275 yards last game. A 27-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish offense will be much better with Book at quarterback now. Wimbush made too many mistakes and was just very inconsistent. 

This Notre Dame team is going to push the pace. Book talk about how much the coaching staff wanted him to push the pace last week, and he followed the directions well. Notre Dame ranks 21st in the nation in tempo.

Stanford is a much slower paced team, but they are an offense that has big play capability. The Cardinal have a much better passing attack than they have had in most years, and that gives them balance. 

This game finished 38-20 last year, and I see both offenses as better than last year. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* UTSA is second to last in the nation in yards per play so far this year. UTEP is 8th worst out of 130 teams. These are two really bad offenses. 

UTSA has been strong defensively for the past few years, and I expect them to be very good against the pass this year. UTEP doesn't have much of a running game.

The UTEP defense is improved from last year, and they aren't giving up as many big plays thus far. 

UTEP ranks 123rd out of 130 teams in the nation in tempo. Look for an ugly low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Mississippi State Bulldogs offense is very inconsistent, but their defense is very good. The Bulldogs actually played pretty well on defense last week against Kentucky. The strength of this Bulldogs defense is their defensive front. Florida is pretty reliant on the running game, and they are unlikely to have much success there.

Both of these teams are playing at a slower pace than average, and these are two strong defenses. The Florida offense hasn't been nearly as good as their points per game look. They have benefited from a bunch of short fields and special teams touchdowns. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons offense hasn't been up to par so far this year, but I expect them to get their ground game going as they almost always do. They have multiple solid options at quarterback.

Nevada has a great quarterback for their pass heavy system in Ty Gangi. I expect Nevada to put up some big numbers in MWC play this year. Nevada is averaging an impressive 6.54 yards per play this year, and they are 17th quickest in the country in terms of tempo.

Nevada is 87th in yards per play allowed and Air Force is 97th. 

When these teams met last year, Air Force won 45-42. It was no fluke that it was really high scoring either. Air Force had 591 yards offense and Nevada had 424 yards. 

I don't see any reason to expect things to change in this year's matchup. A back and forth high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Appalachian State Mountaineers offense has been a really nice surprise this year. With Thomas at quarterback, they seem to have found a guy who knows the system really well and can make the right decisions. Moore gives this team a really good running back with the ability to break one at any time. Appalachian State is 6th in the nation in yards per play this year. This offense showed what they can do in that impressive season opener against Penn State. 

South Alabama has decided to pick up the tempo this year. The Jaguars rank 42nd in the nation in tempo. They have gotten much better than expected quarterback play from Evan Orth. He threw for 360 yards on just 32 pass attempts against Memphis last week. 

The South Alabama defense is weak. They have allowed a bunch of big plays this year. South Alabama has given up 28 plays of 20 yards or more in the early going this year. They rank 104th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

This number has been beaten down too far.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* It's hard to overstate how bad this UConn defense has been. UConn is dead last in the nation in every key defensive statistic. UConn is allowing a ridiculous 9.22 yards per play. They are allowing 7.97 yards per carry, which is easily worst in the nation. 

Cincinnati's defense is solid, but I think their defensive numbers look better than they truly are right now for a couple key reasons. They played one game (against Miami OH) in a driving rainstorm with 20mph. That makes the job a lot easier for the defense. Second, they played an Alabama A&M team that is awful. 

The Cincinnati offense has gotten better week by week, and they should move easily against UConn as everyone else has. UConn hasn't allowed less than 49 points in a game this year and that includes a game against Rhode Island (FCS school). 

David Pindell is now probable to play here, and the UConn offense is good enough that they should contribute enough here.

This number has gotten too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Late Night BAILOUT* Arizona State is 97th in the nation in yards per carry so far this year. They haven't been able to establish anything on the ground, and I don't see that changing here. The Sun Devils offensive line should be in for a long night against the Washington defensive front here. Washington is loaded with top end talent on the defensive line. 

Manny Wilkins isn't consistent at the quarterback spot. The Sun Devils didn't even get a first down in the second half until there was about 3 minutes left against San Diego State last week. They face an even better defense here. 

Washington's offense hasn't been clicking all that well this year. Jake Browning has been out of sync and the Huskies lack big playmakers on the outside. Arizona State's defense is much improved this year with Herm Edwards and Danny Gonzales here running the 3-3-5. 

I see Washington getting a safe lead here and then running the ball consistently and burning up the clock. Petersen's teams have a history of being very conservative with big leads in the second half. 

The under is 5-0 in Washington's last 5 September games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing less than 275 yards in their last game. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 13-0 angle.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans defense let them down in the second half against Arizona State. The Sun Devils put together two long drives to win in the fourth quarter. Michigan State has had two weeks to get ready for this game, and I expect a much better defensive performance from a team coached by Mark Dantonio.

Michigan State ranks 120th in the nation, so they will be slowing things down a lot here. Indiana was top five in the nation in tempo last year, but they are down to an averaged paced tempo this year. 

Indiana has a strong defensive line, and Michigan State is banged up on the offensive front. LJ Scott is questionable for this game as well, and without him Michigan State is far less potent on offense. 

Both Michigan State and Indiana's offenses have been slightly worse than the average offense in the country. 

Last year's meeting was 17-9 and an epic defensive struggle. The year before that they went into overtime at 21-21 (it was 7-0 at halftime). These teams have a history of low scoring games against each other. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles had a week off after a cancellation due to Hurricane Florence. Their offense gets a boost as Kwadra Griggs is eligible to return at quarterback here. Since Jack Abraham has played so well at QB, Griggs will have to share time with him. 

Southern Miss' offense will go up against one of the worst defenses in the country in the Rice Owls. Rice is allowing 6.01 yards per carry. Their secondary might be even worse though. They are giving up a whopping 10.0 yards per pass completion. Rice has already allowed 13 plays of 30 yards or more in just three games. 

The Rice offense is better than last year. The Owls are a respectable 83rd in the country in yards per play. They have an improved backfield and I think they can break some big gainers in the run game here.

The last two years the score has been 44-28 Southern Miss and 43-34 Southern Miss when these two teams met. Southern Miss put up more than 500 yards of offense last year.

This total has been bet down, and I'll gladly take the over at this low number with a questionable Southern Miss defense and a terrible Rice defense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Vanderbilt Commodores have a much improved passing attack. Vanderbilt gained 420 yards against Notre Dame last week, and the Commodores just blew all sorts of chances to score in the red zone. They should have won that game.

South Carolina is playing much faster this year. The Gamecocks rank 29th in the country in tempo so far this season. With Samuel healthy again, Jake Bentley has an elite weapon to get the ball to and that should make a big difference.

Last year, both of these teams were worse on offense and played slower and their meeting was a 34-27 South Carolina win. 

Maybe Vanderbilt's defense is a little better this year, but I'm not convinced it is as good as it looks on paper so far this year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Which team is dead last in the nation in yards per play so far this year? It's the Northern Illinois Huskies. This Northern Illinois offense wants to rely on the run. They are running the ball more than 61% of the time this year. They just aren't any good at running the football though. The strength of the Florida State defense is their run defense. Florida State ranks 34th in the country, allowing only 3.31 yards per carry on the year thus far.

Florida State's offensive line is a mess right now. It's about as bad of an offensive line as any Power 5 conference has. What's the strength of the Northern Illinois defense? It's clearly their defensive line led by Sutton Smith. Smith is going to be in the Florida State backfield early and often in this one.

This projects as a 20-13 type of game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Clemson Tigers have a tremendous defensive front. Georgia Tech is a team that has to run the football. They have virtually no passing game. Georgia Tech runs on about 77% of their offensive plays. The Yellow Jackets average a little better than 7 yards per carry, but they shouldn't get anywhere near that amount in this contest.

Clemson has been excellent at stopping the triple option of Georgia Tech in recent years. The Yellow Jackets have had 230, 124, and 230 total yards of offense in their last three games against Clemson. Clemson beat Tech 26-7 and 24-10 the last two seasons. The Tigers are a bit vulnerable in the secondary this year, but this is the best defensive line they have had. Clemson also faced a triple option team last week. They should be ready. 

Georgia Tech's defense is showing signs of improving under new coordinator Nate Woody. He did a great job at Appalachian State, and he should do a good job in the long run here too. Tech ranks 53rd in the nation in yards per play allowed so far this year.

With Clemson running at a 56% clip on the year and Georgia Tech running the ball on nearly every play, there will be a bunch of running clock.

Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Total PERFECTION* The Miami (Ohio) Redhawks offense has been bad this year, but this is their chance to breakout of their funk. Miami's offensive numbers are skewed right now. They played a game in torrential rain and wind against Cincinnati and scored 0 points. They then scored 3 against a good Big Ten defense in Minnesota. 

Miami now goes up against a terrible Bowling Green defense. Bowling Green is allowing 7.32 yards per play on the year. That is 123rd in the country. Bowling Green has already allowed 13 plays of 30 yards or more this year. The Falcons allowed 29 points and a whopping 612 yards against Miami last year. The year before Miami put up 40 points on them.

Bowling Green's offense likes to push the tempo, and I think Doege is a good fit for this scheme. In the same way that their offensive stats are skewed to the downside, Miami's defensive stats look better than they should. That torrential rain and wind game helped their numbers. Also, Minnesota has a really weak offense this year. Marshall put up 35 points on Miami in the season opener. 

This is an awfully low total for a Bowling Green game. I think both offenses move the ball well here.

The over is 7-0 in Bowling Green's last 7 conference games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 following an ATS loss. A 17-0 angle.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Georgia Bulldogs offense is better this year than last. Georgia has a much more balanced attack. They have playmakers on the outside, and they have a quarterback who is comfortable in the system and has experience. Georgia ranks sixth in the nation in yards per play on offense so far this year. 

Missouri is in the top 20 in the nation in tempo. Derek Dooley has this offense playing quickly again, and Drew Lock looks great in this new offense. Missouri is 27th in the nation in yards per play, and they'll look to push the pace here.

The Georgia defense is down a notch from last year, and Missouri's defense isn't good at all. 

Georgia had 696 yards of total offense against Missouri last year. The final score there was 53-28 in favor of Georgia. I think both defenses are a little worse this year, and both offenses are definitely more efficient.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over*

Wake Forest ranks third in the nation in tempo. The Demon Deacons will have their quarterback back for this game, and that should make a big difference. Their offense will become more efficient.

Notre Dame's tempo ranks 35th in the country. The Fighting Irish have been disappointing on offense thus far, but they go against a Wake Forest defense that ranks 95th in the country in yards per play allowed. Notre Dame should get their running game going in a big way here.

With lots of pace from each side, I think this number is several points too low.

Take the over.

*4 Star Play Over* The UCLA Bruins might be without Speight here, but I like freshman Dorian Thompson-Robinson and his dual-threat ability. The Bruins will obviously play fast with Chip Kelly as their new coach. 

Fresno State's defensive front isn't as strong as it was a year ago. The Bulldogs won't be bad on defense, but they won't be as strong as they were a year ago. Fresno State hasn't played a good offense yet this year. 

The Fresno State offense will be better than it was a year ago. The Bulldogs have a veteran quarterback and a great offensive-minded head coach. Look for Fresno State to speed up their tempo some this season as well. UCLA's defense is a major weakness, and I think Fresno State can move the ball on a consistent basis here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona State Sun Devils picked up a huge win over Michigan State last weekend. Herm Edwards' team deserves a lot of credit for how they have started out the season. I've been most impressed with Arizona State's run defense. The Sun Devils have allowed only 1.07 yards per carry so far this year. Stuffing UTSA didn't mean too much, but Michigan State averaged only 2.33 yards per carry last weekend. 

Arizona State's defensive coordinator was San Diego State's defensive coordinator last year. I think that really helps them on defense this weekend. San Diego State is without their starting quarterback here. The Aztecs rank in the bottom 5 in the country in pace of play. They will run the ball a bunch here, and that will keep the clock moving. I don't think San Diego State can throw it enough to keep Arizona State's defense honest.

Rocky Long's defenses seem to always be well-prepared. The Arizona State offensive line is a bit weak, and I expect San Diego State to be able to get in the backfield pretty often here and put Arizona State in 2nd and 3rd and long situations. 

Arizona State played so quickly last year, and they are a different team with Herm Edwards as their coach now. I don't think the market is accounting for that change enough right now.

The under is 20-8-1 in San Diego State's last 29 home games. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Missouri Tigers have a potent offense with Drew Lock at quarterback and plenty of playmakers on the outside. Missouri is playing very quickly again this year, and Purdue's defense is much weaker than it was last season.

Purdue's offense is going to be better with Jeff Brohm leading the way. Brohm is a great offensive mind, and I fully expect him to be able to get the passing game going. Rondale Moore is a great weapon to have as well.

With both teams pushing the pace and throwing the ball often- I see this one getting over the posted total.

Take the over.

*4 Star Play Over* The UMass Minutemen will have a great passing attack this year. FIU's weakness on defense is their secondary. FIU has a strong offensive line. What's UMass' defensive weakness? Their defensive front is easy to run the football against.

These two teams met in the final game of the season last year. FIU won that one 63-45. FIU rolled up a ridiculous 674 yards of total offense. FIU ran for 379 yards (7.7 yards per carry). UMass totaled 548 yards, and they threw for 392 yards in that one. 

I don't like to make too much of a game from last year, but it was the final game of the season last year, and both offenses showed they can easily exploit the weakness of the opposing defense. 

Even without last year's contest, I would like the over here. UMass should finish the season in the top 30 or so in pace of play this year, and FIU is right about middle of the pack in tempo. Both defenses have proven vulnerable to big plays. I see a back and forth affair here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Kansas State relies heavily on the running game, and they rank in the bottom 15 in the country in terms of tempo. There is always a lot of running clock and long drives in Kansas State contests.

UTSA lost a bunch of talent on offense from last year. The Roadrunners are going to have trouble scoring all season long. So far this year, UTSA is averaging a miserable 3.49 yards per play on the season. That is worst in Conference USA through the first two games.

Both teams are better at stopping the run than the pass in this one.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green have a fantastic passing attack led by Mason Fine. Arkansas has some major defensive issues. They allowed a bunch of big plays against a weak Colorado State offense last weekend. North Texas should surprise a lot of people with a bunch of big passing plays here.

Arkansas has a good quarterback for Chad Morris' system. The Razorbacks are looking to push the pace more and more every game. While the North Texas offense is very good, their defense is weak. North Texas struggled all year last season with giving up too many big plays.

Lots of explosive plays from both sides.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers always rank in the bottom ten in the nation in terms of pace of play. BYU ranks on the lower end in tempo as well. There will be a bunch of running plays in this game, and with both teams letting the clock roll between plays it will certainly help the under.

BYU couldn't do anything on offense against Cal last week at home. The Cougars got a fumble recovery run back for a touchdown, but had 3 points on offense until the final minute of the game. They scored a TD with less than a minute left with Cal in their prevent defense. Cal's defense is pretty good, but the Wisconsin Badgers defense is clearly stronger. I would be surprised if BYU gets much at all here.

Wisconsin is a very run heavy team. They will run the ball 65-70% of the time this year. They have a great running game, but BYU's defensive strength is definitely stopping the run. The Cougars have a strong front 7. Wisconsin will get their yardage here, but I think BYU does better slowing them down than most teams do. Expect long drawn out drives for Wisconsin.

A 31-10 type of game here with the under showing value.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* The Virginia Cavaliers and Ohio Bobcats meet on Saturday. This total has been beaten down in a big way because of the Hurricane Florence threat. Even if this game is played in Virginia, I think there is some value on the over. However, multiple sources now indicate that this game will be played in Nashville at a neutral site. Beat writers for both teams have reported this.

This is a game that I believe should have a total in the mid 50's given a normal weather day. When a total is this much below that number, I have to fire with a bigger play. 

Ohio's defense is going to be much weaker than they were a year ago. How bad could they be? Ohio allowed a whopping 645 yards to Howard in their first game.

A quick tempo from the Bobcats and a solid Virginia run offense.

Take the over big. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bearcats picked up a big upset victory over UCLA. Cincinnati didn't win because of their offense though. Despite going up against a weak UCLA defense, Cincinnati's offense couldn't get much done. Cincinnati averaged only 3.65 yards per play and finished with 285 total yards. The Bearcats still don't have an identity on offense. Defensively, the Bearcats have a much improved defensive line, and I think they could give the Miami offensive line trouble in this game.

This game is played at Paul Brown Stadium where the Bengals played so it is a neutral site. The remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon are expected to move into Cincinnati on Saturday night. The weather forecast is calling for winds of around 15 mph and a good chance of rain especially later in this game. That could make both teams run the ball more than they typically would. Offenses who are predictable clearly help the defense in a big way.

This is a big rivalry game, and last year's game was dominated by the defenses.  My numbers liked this under a decent amount even without the weather being factored in. With the weather being factored in, I think this is a good value.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Indiana hosts Virginia in a Big 10 vs. ACC battle in Bloomington on Saturday night. Indiana is without their best running back in Morgan Ellison, who is suspended. Indiana has a new quarterback and I would expect the Hoosier to be a run heavy team this year behind a solid offensive line.

Virginia is implementing a new offense this year after star QB Kurt Benkert moved on. They have a youngster at QB who is not a good passer. They will look to run the ball much more this year with both their mobile QB and their running backs. The problem for Virginia is their offensive line is a weakness. Indiana's defensive line is clearly the strength of their defensive unit. Virginia isn't likely to be able to run the ball on them much here. 

The Virginia secondary is the strength of the defense, and I don't think Indiana will try to test them very often. 

Neither team is likely to be effective in the passing game especially with the weather forecast. There is a 90% of chance of rain which could be heavy and 15 mph winds from the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon. One-dimensional teams are much easier to defend.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers have a totally different system on offense this year. Derek Dooley is the OC and they will be more of a pro-style offense with much less tempo than last year. I expect their games to be lower scoring than they were last season. 

The market has already moved this line down a good amount, and it is largely due to the weather. The forecast calls for 13 mph winds sustained throughout the game and some light rain.

Wyoming's passing attack is virtually non-existent, and the way to beat this Missouri defense is through the air. Missouri should be strong against the run this year. Wyoming will try to run it down their throat and control the ball for as long as possible. 

The Wyoming defense returns its top six tacklers from a year ago. The final score in their loss to Washington State last week is a little misleading, since Washington State scored 21 points in the last 11 minutes of the game. Washington State had only 394 yards of total offense.

I like both defensive lines here and with questionable weather and slower pace from both I'll take the under.  

*3 Star Play Under* It's not easy to play a Navy under after the way their defense looked against Hawaii last week, but at this number I have to. Navy plays at the second slowest tempo of any team in the country (only Army is slower). They are going to run the football on more than 90% of their plays this year. 

The Memphis offense will be good this year, but they won't be as explosive as they were a year ago with Riley Ferguson at quarterback. Memphis will look to run the football more often. Though Memphis will still play quickly, I do expect them to be a bit slower than last year.

The Navy secondary is the weakness of their defense and Hawaii had the perfect scheme to take advantage of that. Navy is much better defensively on the front seven. I also feel that Navy is a very well coached team and I would be surprised if this unit doesn't show a lot of fight and perform better this week. 

These two teams have played each of the last 4 years, and none of those games have gone over this total. There is some recency bias in this total. I'll go under this high number.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Mississippi State Bulldogs have a tremendous defensive line. That should make it very hard for Kansas State to do much on offense here. I don't see Kansas State as a team that will be able to throw the ball much this season. They will look to run constantly and the Bulldogs have a big edge on the defensive front. 

Kansas State typically does a good job on the defensive front, and I think they can hold their own enough to slow down the Bulldogs rushing game enough here.

Both of these teams will be much slower than the average team in terms of tempo, and there should be a lot of moving clock in this one with a bunch of rushing attempts. I believe this number should be closer to 50.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona State Sun Devils have a new offensive coordinator and a new head coach this year. I think they are likely to play a little slower on offense. Arizona State also has a new defensive coordinator in Danny Gonzales and he has implemented the 3-3-5 defense that he led at San Diego State. I think that will help the Sun Devils improve on this side of the ball.

UTSA lost a ton on offense. They return only 4 starters this year. They scored 9 points or less in three of their last four games last season. The Roadrunners play at a very slow tempo, and the offense is likely to be very weak this year. UTSA is coached by a defensive minded guy in Frank Wilson. Wilson has improved this defense in a big way, and I think they will be solid yet again. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The SMU Mustangs beat the North Texas Mean Green 54-32 last year. Both of these teams were racking up big gain after big gain. Both SMU and North Texas ranked in the top 40 in the country in pace of play last year. SMU will likely play even quicker under Sonny Dykes this year, and North Texas has a veteran quarterback in Mason Fine, which likely means an even faster pace as he knows the system very well now.

Mason Fine is going to put up some big numbers this year. North Texas has some great receivers and Fine has all the tools. SMU is weak in the secondary and Fine should pick them apart here.

North Texas allowed 16 plays of 50 yards or more last year. The Mean Green defense are aggressive and can force some turnovers, but the trade off is allowing a bunch of big plays. Only one team in the country allowed more plays of 50 yards or more (Tulsa). SMU should have big play ability with a veteran at quarterback like Hicks.

The weather is forecast to be hot and humid on Saturday in Texas. Warm weather has been a nice boost to the over in past years. 

The offenses have big advantages in this one, and both teams will pass heavy so there will be more clock stoppages. Back and forth.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Washington/Auburn Moneymaker* The Auburn Tigers return only one starter on the offensive line from last year. Auburn must also replace their top two running backs from a year ago. The Auburn running game that was terrific last year will be down several notches this year. Washington's defensive front is likely to make it very difficult for Auburn to get anything going on the ground here. Auburn has a good quarterback in Stidham, but he'll be under pressure often in this one, and Washington's secondary is one of the best in the country.

Washington likes to lean on their running game in big games. Auburn's defensive front is one of the four or five best in the country. Washington's offensive line is at a clear disadvantage here. Jake Browning will have to make plays in the passing game, and last year he was inconsistent especially against top defenses and away from home. 

Washington ranked in the bottom 20 in the country in tempo last year, and I expect them to be fairly slow again this year. Auburn was slower than the average team as well. Both teams are run heavy and the clock should keep ticking a lot in this game. 

A hard hitting close game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB TGIF Total DOMINATION* The Stanford Cardinal aren't the same team they were a few years ago. Stanford was known for being tremendous on the defensive front a few years ago. They were consistently piling up 45 or 50 sacks. They were holding teams to 2.9, 3.0, and 3.1 yards per carry. Not anymore. Stanford allowed 4.6 ypc last year, and they had only 32 sacks. Last year's defense was easily the worst in the past six years for Stanford, and the defensive line for Stanford is a big question mark this year. 

Stanford hasn't had a really good quarterback since Andrew Luck was here, but KJ Costello should do very well for them. Costello came on in a big way at the end of last season. He had 14 TD's and only 4 picks last year. As Costello took over at QB later last year, this offense immediately started putting up better numbers. They scored 30 in an upset win over Washington. They put up 38 against Notre Dame. They scored 37 against a good TCU defense in their bowl game.

San Diego State's offensive line is better than Stanford's defensive front. Washington will be a good running back for the Aztecs this year. Chapman has experience at quarterback as well. They should be able to move the ball here.

Bryce Love ran wild against San Diego State last year, and he should be great again here. Stanford should run the ball really well here.

It's a low total where the public is actually taking the under. That's fine with me. The perception of Stanford and San Diego State as defensive teams has this total set at a low number.I'll take the contrarian over here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Mexico State Aggies offense couldn't get a first down for nearly two quarters at home against Wyoming last week. This Aggies offense was fortunate to get 7 points last game, and now they face a Minnesota team with a strong defensive front. New Mexico State's weakness is their offensive line. 

Minnesota ranked 120th out of 130 teams in the country in tempo last year. They have a freshman quarterback, and they are very likely to want to keep things vanilla in this game. New Mexico State should be ready for the run game here.

New Mexico State's defense improved a bunch last year, and I think they will be pretty good again this year. Against a one-dimensional offense they should hold their own here.

New Mexico State played quickly last year, but they appeared to be wanting to slow things down a bit this year with a new quarterback and running back.

Winds of about 15 mph are forecast for this game, and that's enough to change the game some and help the under as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs played in a really high scoring game against Oklahoma, but I don't think we'll see anything like that in the title game.

Georgia plays at the 127th ranked tempo out of 130 teams. Alabama's tempo is 95th out of 130. Georgia is playing at an extremely slow pace, and Alabama prefers to play slowly as well.

Georgia runs the ball on 71% of their plays from scrimmage for the season. Alabama runs it on 66% of their plays from scrimmage. Two teams pounding the ball and using the clock is ideal for an under as long as you have defenses that can stop the run.

Adjusted for strength of schedule played- Alabama's run defense ranks first in the country in run defense. Georgia ranks ninth. 

These two secondaries are both excellent as well, and neither of these passing games are particularly dynamic especially when it comes to creating big plays.

This should be a hard hitting contest where the under holds value.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Miami Florida Hurricanes defense has been tremendous this year. Miami's defensive front has been excellent, and that should help them against a good Wisconsin running game.

Wisconsin ranks 11th in the nation in most runs as a percentage of their overall play selection. The Badgers are going to try to run the ball early and often here. Miami is likely to be able to at least slow them down quite a bit here. Miami is allowing 3.53 yards per carry this year. In their last six games, they are allowing less than 2.7 yards per carry.

The Miami offense scored only 17 points in their last two games. Miami has relied on turnovers much of the year, and their offense is too reliant on the passing game. Miami hasn't been able to run the ball very well. This Wisconsin defense is third in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Miami plays at an average tempo. Wisconsin is the third slowest team in the country in terms of pace of play. The Badgers will have some long clock eating drives that should help the under a lot.

The under is 4-0 in Miami's last 4 bowl games. The under is 45-20 in Miami's last 65 non-conference games. The under is 7-3 in Wisconsin's last 10 non-conference games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB Texas Bowl Total DOMINATION* The Texas Longhorns and Missouri Tigers both like to push the pace. Texas played at the 35th fastest tempo out of 130 teams in the country. Missouri played at the second fastest tempo of anyone in the country this season. 

The Missouri offense is based a lot on timing, and early in the season their timing wasn't down yet. As Drew Lock and the rest of this unit got things down pat, the numbers they put up were massive. Missouri hasn't scored less than 45 points in any of their last six games. 

Texas' defense is very good, but they will be without several key players here. Chris Nelson won't play on the defensive front. DeShon Elliot won't play in the secondary. Holton Hill has been out for the last few weeks at a corner spot, and he's out again here.

The Texas offense finally has two healthy quarterbacks, and this Missouri defense doesn't impress me. Missouri has allowed 6.4 yards per play or more on five occasions this year. 

With both teams playing at this kind of pace, this isn't a particularly high total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Wildcats have been an offensive juggernaut since Khalil Tate took over at quarterback. How good have they been? They haven't scored less than 28 points in any game he started. They have scored 45 points or more in 5 of the 8 games Tate started. 

Purdue has some good defensive numbers on the season as a whole, but they didn't play very many good offenses. Purdue plays in the side of the Big Ten where most teams want to grind it out (Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern for example) and thus Purdue had a bunch of low scoring games. They did allow 35 points and 524 points to Louisville in the season opener.

Purdue likes to play quickly, and I don't see a Jeff Brohm coached team shying away from a high scoring fast paced game. Arizona will play fast and look to get into a shootout. Purdue hasn't been in them this year, but Arizona's defense is bad enough that Purdue should put up a lot of points here. 

Arizona's last eight games have all easily gone past this total. In fact, they have all been 72 points or higher. 

Arizona is first in the nation in yards per carry. The Wildcats defense ranks 93rd in the country in yards per play allowed at 6.03.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs defense was tremendous this year. This team was one of the biggest surprises of the season, and their massive improvement on defense was the key. Fresno State is accustomed to playing in Hawaii, and I think they will be ready to play here.

Houston's offense was really inconsistent this year. The Cougars put up some big numbers on bad defenses in their conference. Houston also plays a bunch of teams that play at a very fast tempo in the American Athletic Conference. Fresno State won't play at that pace here. When Houston has been outside of their conference, the under has had value of late. I think that makes sense because the Cougars run up big numbers on teams like East Carolina in the AAC, but their totals are generally too high in non-conference games.

There isn't one area in this game where the offense holds the advantage (pass offenses and run offenses vs. their opposition). The Houston run defense is dominant and Fresno State hasn't consistent at all in the passing attack this year.

The under is 5-0 in Fresno's last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in Houston's last 5 non-conference games. A 10-0 angle.

Take the under.

*4 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves rank fourth in the nation in pace of play. Arkansas State is going to get off a lot of snaps and quickly. MTSU likes to play quickly as well, especially with Brent Stockstill back under center for the team. 

Both defenses are better at stopping the run than the pass, but both of these offenses are pass heavy. Look for both offenses to take advantage of weak secondaries in this one. 

Arkansas State has shown on multiple occasions that they can get involved in some really high scoring games. MTSU now has their star quarterback Stockstill back, and they finished the season scoring 30 points or more in each of their last four games.

I see this being a back and forth affair with both offenses moving it through the air with ease.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Colorado State Rams are so efficient on offense. They rank 24th in scoring efficiency this year. They are 14th in the nation in yards per play. Gallup is one of the best receivers in the country. They have a strong offensive line as well.

Marshall's defense was good this year, but they didn't face many good offenses. They are up against the best or second best offense they have faced all year for this one. I think they'll struggle.

Marshall's offense has been up and down this year, but Colorado State ranks 101st in the nation in yards per play allowed. Marshall should get going offensively in this contest.

This number is a touchdown too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Auburn Tigers and Georgia Bulldogs just played three weeks ago. This one means a whole lot more. Auburn blasted Georgia in the first game. Georgia's coaches and players weren't very happy with the chatting from the Auburn after that last meeting. They felt Auburn took advantage of the opportunity and ran up the score and then talked about it after the game.

I fully expect to see an extremely motivated Georgia Bulldogs defense in this one. Georgia's defense was bullied on the line by the Tigers offensive front in the first meeting. Don't expect that again here.

Auburn runs the ball on 64% of their offensive plays. The Tigers will be without Kamryn Pettway due to injury, and star running back Kerryon Johnson will likely try to play through a shoulder injury. 

Georgia runs the ball on 69.5% of their offensive plays. The Bulldogs go up against an Auburn defense that has been elite all year against the run. 

Auburn plays at an average tempo. Georgia plays at one of the five slowest tempo's in the country. This much running with a relatively slow tempo should mean a small amount of possessions. 

This game means everything to both teams and intensity usually helps the defense more than the offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB Total PERFECTION* The Georgia State Panthers have absolutely no running game. Adjusted for strength of schedule faced, Georgia State has been the worst running offense in the country. One-dimensional offenses are a lot easier to game plan for. Idaho's pass rush has been solid this year, and I think the Vandals can get some pressure on the quarterback here.

Idaho's offense is lost without quarterback Matt Linehan. How have they done without him the last couple weeks? They scored only 7 points against lowly Coastal Carolina two weeks ago. They scored just 10 points against a terrible New Mexico State defense last week. Idaho isn't any good at running the football, but with their third string quarterback in for this one they are likely to have to try to run the football. Idaho's starting running back Isaiah Saunders is questionable with an injury here too. I don't think Idaho will be able to do much on offense in this one.

Both teams have played quite a few very low scoring games this year. 

The under is 4-0 in Idaho's last 4. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 on turf. The under is 4-0 in GA State's last 4 home games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 on turf. A 19-0 angle.

Take the under.  

*3 Star CFB Friday Night PAC 12 Title Game CASH* The Stanford Cardinal were beaten 42-24 by USC earlier this year. That Stanford team was a lot different than the current version though. David Shaw's team has gotten a solid amount better on defense throughout the year. Their defensive efficiency rank was in the range of #90 early in the season. If you look at the last five weeks only, it is #41. 

USC struggles at times to protect Darnold, and the Cardinal have been good at pressuring the quarterback this year. I think they'll get in the backfield and disrupt things quite a bit during this contest.

The Stanford offense has gotten far less efficient in recent weeks. Bryce Love is playing hobbled and this is a very conservative offense. Stanford ranks 120th in the nation in pace of play. They will look to run the football and use up the clock and keep the USC offense off the field. Since their loss to USC on September 9, only one Stanford game has gone over this total. That was against UCLA and their terrible defense. 

The under is 7-0 in Stanford's last 7 following a win. The under is 4-0 in USC's last 4 following a bye week. An 11-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Wildcats and Arizona State Sun Devils meet on Saturday in what should be a game filled with tons of big plays for the offenses. 

Arizona's offense ranks first in the nation in yards per carry at a whopping 7.03 per attempt. Arizona State's defense is 109th in the country and allowing 5.11 yards per carry. Adjusted for strength of schedule played, Arizona State's run defense ranks in the bottom ten in the country.

Arizona State's passing attack has a big edge on this Arizona Wildcats secondary. Arizona has allowed more than 40 points in 4 of their last 7 games. The Wildcats are giving up huge plays by the bunches this year.

The last five games between these two teams have all gone over this number. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Iowa State Cyclones and Kansas State Wildcats are two of the rare teams in the Big 12 who play slowly and look to control the ball through their run game. Both teams are without their starting quarterback and that should make them more conservative.

I see a game where both teams play slowly and this one is decided by a small margin. We get a little line value from the fact that both teams have played several high scoring games against opponents like Oklahoma and Oklahoma State who are tremendous offensively. There is no great offense in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders offense is much better now that star quarterback Brent Stockstill is back on the field. While Richie James is injured, Ty Lee has turned into a star at receiver and MTSU has a big advantage over an ODU defensive secondary that has struggled all season long.

Old Dominion's offense is certainly better now that Ray Lawry is healthy. ODU has gotten much more balanced on offense in recent weeks since the passing game finds openings because teams are now having to stack up the box to slow the running game once again. ODU should be able to do enough here.

Both offenses have rated much higher in efficiency metrics in the last few weeks. I think this number would have been fair if Stockstill and Lawry weren't back, but with them in the fold I'll take the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers have one of the best defenses in the Sun Belt. Appalachian State is a team that likes to run the ball as often as possible. They often go on long drives that eat up a bunch of time.

Georgia State is dead last in rushing efficiency on offense in the country. Georgia State has to throw it, but Appalachian State has the best secondary in the Sun Belt. I expect Georgia State to have trouble moving the ball here. Georgia State has scored 21 points or less in 5 of their 9 games this year. 

Look for both defenses to match up well in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Boston College has picked up their pace significantly this season. Syracuse is one of the five fastest teams in the country. This number is awfully low based on those tendencies to hurry and get in as many plays as possible.

Boston College and Syracuse got to 48 points last year, but Boston College is playing at a much faster tempo this year, and the Eagles defense has been struggling in recent weeks.

This one has the potential to be a very close game where both teams score plenty.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Boise State Broncos offense has really gotten it in gear of late. Air Force is one of the worst defenses in the country. The Falcons are allowing 6.51 yards per play, which is 118th out of 130 teams in college football.

Boise State's offense led the comeback vs. Colorado State last week. They should put up a big number here. 

Air Force's offense is good enough to put up some points, especially as they play faster when behind.

Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Totals TAKEDOWN* The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are coming off a really high scoring game against Syracuse. The Orange play extremely fast and aren't very good on defense. That basketball-like score has created some value on the under here. 

I leaned to the under even before I saw the weather here because of the overreaction in the market, but after seeing the weather I like the under a good amount.

The Winston Salem area is expected to get 25 mph winds on Saturday night during this game. Both of these teams rank top 25 in the nation in passing efficiency adjusted for strength of schedule. They both rank worse than 65th in the nation in rushing efficiency. I expect both teams to have to run the ball more than they want in this one, and that plays into the hands of the defense.

The under is 10-1 in NC State's last 11 ACC games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after a win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. A 19-1 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Taamu has been terrific at quarterback for Ole Miss. He is completing better than 73% of his passes. Ole Miss' tempo has been even faster since he took over as well. The Rebels offense ranks in the top 15 in pace of play on offense. Texas A&M ranks in the top 20 in tempo as well. There will be a bunch of possessions in this one.

Texas A&M's offense has gotten quite a bit better as the season has moved on, and they are up against a weak defense. Ole Miss has an explosive offense that scores quickly.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston College Eagles and the UConn Huskies will both be playing with backup quarterbacks on Saturday night. Both lost their starter in their last game. That alone would make them likely to be more conservative, but add poor weather to the mix and we should see a lot of conservative play calling.

This game is being played at Fenway Park. The wind is supposed to pick up during the game and the rain is forecast to start falling during this game. By the end of the game, 20 mph sustained winds and showers should be falling. 

Look for a sloppy lower scoring contest here.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under*
The Purdue Boilermakers offense has struggled in recent weeks, but the defense has been tremendous. Iowa's offense couldn't do anything last week in Wisconsin, but the defense made several strong stands.
The early weather forecast calls for 23 mph winds during this game, which changes the game in a big way. It will make both teams more conservative.

Games with 10 mph wind or higher and a temperature of 54 degrees or lower in the last 3 weeks of the regular season are 156 unders and 88 overs (63.9%) unders in the past 10 years

I like this one to stay very low scoring.

Take the under big. 

*This number is moving down as people see the weather report. I would play this for a top play down to 40 points, and four 4 stars below that. Thanks* 

*4 Star CFB Totals System SMASHER* I would not have played the under here normally, but the weather makes me do it because of the extremely strong angle backing the under. 

Louisville is expected to be 53 degrees with 25 mph winds and 30-35 mph gusts during this game. There is a 70% chance of rain. That's downright brutal conditions, and it should change this game.

Syracuse plays very fast on offense. Still, they actually have been less efficient than I expected this year. The Orange rank about 40th in most pass efficiency metrics. They aren't in the top 75 in the country in rushing efficiency. They'll need that running game more than normal with conditions like this. Louisville's pass defense has been terrible this year, but adjusted for strength of schedule this Louisville defense ranks top 20 against the run.

Louisville has a dynamic offense, but the Cardinals are playing at the 62nd fastest tempo of any team in the country, meaning they aren't pushing the issue. This is an extremely high number.

Here's a great system that fits this game: In a game in week 11-13 with a total of 56 points or higher and the home team has a win percentage of 40% or better- with wind of 10 mph or higher the under is a whopping 81-35 in the last 116 contests. That's 70% unders.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* South Alabama is great at making games low scoring. The Jaguars defense is one of the best in the Sun Belt. They have been particularly good when it comes to stopping the run. 

Georgia Southern ranks in the bottom ten in the country in tempo. They are running the triple option, so every possession takes a lot of time off the clock. 

The meeting between these two last year was 24-9. A game in the 30's here shouldn't be a surprise either.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas State Bobcats and Arkansas State Red Wolves meet in Jonesboro on Saturday. The forecast for this one calls for 20-25 mph sustained winds during this game. Arkansas State is very reliant on their passing game. They air it out 57% of the time on offense. That is normally how they would beat Texas State, because Texas State's secondary is weak. However, in those winds it will be hard to throw the ball.

Both teams will fall back and run the ball more often, and both offensive lines are weak. Texas State and Arkansas State both rank in the bottom five in the country in rushing offense efficiency. Both defenses are pretty good against the run. 

In a game that should feature more running, with a high total and a rolling clock, I'm going to take the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oregon State Beavers defense has been terrible all year. Arizona State has been solid in the passing game in recent weeks. Arizona State has scored 37 points or more five times this year. They have 81 points in the last two games alone. 

Oregon State's rushing game has been pretty good this year. The Beavers should be able to run for a lot here. Arizona State ranks in the bottom five in the country in yards per carry allowed when adjusted for strength of schedule. Overall, Arizona State is allowing 5.30 yards per carry on the year.

Arizona State's tempo has been faster in recent weeks, and Todd Graham has talked about wanting the team to continue to play very quick.

Both teams should score quite a few here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather in Waco on Saturday calls for sustained winds of 25 mph with gusts of 35 to 40 mph. That kind of wind is really hard to throw a football in, especially if you are looking to go downfield at all. 

That makes the offenses game plan a lot more vanilla, and both of these defenses are better against the run than the pass. 

Iowa State isn't sure who is starting at quarterback this week since Kempt went down with an injury last week. The Cyclones have been good throwing the ball this year, but they have struggled badly running the football.

The sharp money is on the under in a big way here. There have been multiple steam moves on the under. I agree.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Indiana Hoosiers defense has improved an amazing amount over the last couple years. The defense has become the strength of this team under Coach Allen. In the past it was the clear weakness of Indiana's football program.

Indiana now has a top 20 defense against the run when adjusted for strength of schedule. The Hoosiers are top 30 against the pass. 

This Rutgers offense is as bad as you'll see in the Big Ten. Rutgers wouldn't be likely to score many at all here in normal conditions. 

With a forecast of 20 mph winds and 60% chance of showers, this game should be changed quite a bit by the weather. Indiana likes to throw the ball around, and they are pretty good through the air. With wind like that, I expect Indiana to be more conservative. Especially against a Rutgers offense that can't do much of anything.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under*

The Michigan Wolverines and Wisconsin Bagders meet on Saturday in a huge Big Ten clash. Both of these teams like to run the football consistently. That plays to the strength of these defenses. Look for a bunch of running plays and a very slow pace between two teams who are extremely deliberate in their offensive styles.

Also, the early weather forecast here calls for extremely strong winds and cold temperatures for this game.

Games with 10 mph wind or higher and a temperature of 54 degrees or lower in the last 3 weeks of the regular season are 156 unders and 88 overs (63.9%) unders in the past 10 years

Take the under big.

*This number is moving down as people see the weather report. I would play this for a top play down to 39 points, and four 4 stars below that. Thank you* 

*3 Star Play Under* The long term forecast calls for sustained winds of 22 mph here and gusts of 30 mph during the game. That's some intense wind that really changes the game. Both of these offenses have struggled for much of the season. The defenses are clearly better than the offenses here. Add in the weather factor, and I have to take the under.

Games with 10 mph wind or higher and a temperature of 54 degrees or lower in the last 3 weeks of the regular season are 156 unders and 88 overs (63.9%) unders in the past 10 years. This one easily fits the criteria with a 45 degree temperature and 22 mph winds.

Look for both teams to run more than normal in a low scoring battle here.

Take the under.

*4 Star Play Under* The Memphis Tigers and SMU Mustangs are not normally teams I'd be looking to play an under with. There is an outside factor here though. The weather is expected to be really ugly for this one. 

Memphis is expected to get 20-25 mph winds and some rain during this game. Both of these teams are very pass happy generally, but I fully expect it to be very difficult to throw the ball as normal. Will they still get some big plays? Yes. Still, this game is totaled extremely high. Everything has to go right for the over when the number is set like this. With weather like this, I don't think that will happen.

Games with 12 mph sustained winds and totals of 60 points or higher have cashed at 60% under in the past ten years. We can certainly assume that with rain the number would improve.

I think the elements will make the two teams more conservative. I'll go under this very high number.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The under is a perfect 8-0 in the last 8 meetings between Alabama and Mississippi State in Mississippi. Take a look back at those games and you'll see a lot of the same characteristics. 

Both of these teams run the ball at a high percentage of their overall offensive plays. That has been the case for quite some time. Alabama has generally won this game on the road with great defense and a good enough running game. 

Alabama is 2nd and Mississippi State is 24th in yards per play allowed this year. Alabama runs the ball on 64% of their offensive plays this year. Mississippi State runs it on 62.4% of their plays. That's extremely run heavy compared to the country overall. 

Both teams are also playing slower this year. With a slow tempo and a bunch of running I see this one staying under the total.

Take the under.