*3 Star CFB Thursday Night THUNDER* Houston's Greg Ward Jr. is banged up pretty badly right now, but he'll try to play in this one. There's no doubt that he isn't himself, and that has slowed this Houston offense down badly. 

One thing that most people forget is how good this Houston defense is this season. Houston is second in the nation in yards per carry allowed at only 2.76 yards per carry for opponents. Louisville is obviously a run heavy offense, and I think this Houston defense is much better equipped to slow down Lamar Jackson than the average defense. 

Houston's tempo is slower this year than last. Louisville's tempo is slower than the average tempo in the country. These are two offenses who are capable of big plays, so I understand the total being pretty high, but this one is set several points too high. 

Also important to note is the fact that the weather is calling for 10-15 mph winds and a chance of rain in this one. That isn't severe weather, but it is enough to make me like this play a little bit more.

Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Late Night Bailout*  San Diego State has the most underrated running back in the country in Donnell Pumphrey. The Aztecs will run the ball relentlessly in this contest. San Diego State ranks in the top five in the nation in terms of percentage of offensive plays that are a run. Expect them to methodically move the ball down the field and take a lot of time in the process.

The Nevada offense was not good to start with and now they are without their starting quarterback. Nevada will be running the ball a lot as well and that plays into the strength of the Aztecs defense. San Diego State has been a shutdown defense in the Mountain West Conference.

With both teams moving at a slow pace, I see plenty of value on this selection. Take the under.

*4 Star Play Under* Here's a total that has been set a few points too high because of the opponents each of these teams have played of late. 

USC is coming off games against Oregon (45-20 win) and Cal (45-24 win). Washington is coming off a 66-27 win over Cal. 

This is important because Cal and Oregon play at fastest and second fastest tempo of any team in the Pac 12, and they have very good offenses and bad defenses. Every game involving them is high scoring. 

The fact that both of these teams just played these high scoring games has created a situation of recency bias in this posted total. 

Last year, when Washington and USC got together it was 17-12. Both teams are much better offensively this year, but I still think this is too high of a number. 

Neither team is blazing fast in terms of tempo, and USC is running the ball a high percentage of the time. Look for a game that stays in the 50's here. 

Another important factor here is the weather. Rain showers and 25-30 mph winds are expected throughout this game. That changes the game in a big way, and it definitely helps out the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play CFB Total DOMINATION*  USF has a really good tandem in the backfield with Flowers at quarterback and Mack at running back. USF ranks in the top five in the country in yards per carry. Flowers is an excellent dual threat quarterback, and he can make some tremendous plays with his foot speed. Mack is an underrated runner and he is a guy the NFL scouts really like.

Memphis quarterback Riley Ferguson has done an excellent job in this system. Ferguson had to follow Paxton Lynch and some were worried about the Memphis passing game but Ferguson has been more than adequate. Memphis has had a lot of success throwing the ball down field this season. South Florida's defense has been a big disappointment this season.

Both teams play at a quick tempo and I expect a shootout. Take the over.

*4 Star Play Under* The Auburn Tigers and Georgia Bulldogs are both run heavy teams. This is a game that should move very quickly with the clock running most of the game. Both defenses are very solid against the run. Auburn has slowed their tempo down this year, and Georgia is playing at a very slow pace this season. I see Auburn grabbing a lead here and consistently running the football and using up the clock. I had this one set at 45. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under*  The Vanderbilt Commodores have only played one game all season that has gone over this posted total. Vanderbilt is very good at making the game "ugly". The Vanderbilt passing attack is non-existent, which puts a lot of pressure on the running game. Even though Missouri hasn't been good on defense this year, I expect them to slow down the one dimensional Vanderbilt offense.

Missouri plays fast on offense but the Tigers aren't efficient. Drew Lock is inconsistent at the quarterback position and Missouri doesn't get many explosive plays. Vanderbilt has a couple stars on defense and I think they can hold their own in this spot.

When Vanderbilt is involved, I have to take an under at this price point. Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* The Rice Owls have the worst defense in the nation, and it isn't even close. Rice has allowed 13 plays of 70 yards or more this season. How is that even possible?! The second worst mark in the country is 7 plays of 70 yards or more allowed.

Charlotte's defense isn't good either. The 49ers rank 101st out of 128 teams in the nation in total defense. Rice ranks 128th out of 128. 

Charlotte likes to push the tempo of the game, and that makes me believe there will be enough possessions, and enough chances to break big plays, for this game to go over the posted total. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Both of these teams rank in the top 1/3 of teams in the country in terms of tempo. East Carolina has made a habit of piling up the yards and turning the ball over near the goal line. This is something that I believe will regress toward the mean and improve the rest of the season.

Both teams have big play ability and I see both defenses as being vulnerable to the explosive plays. My numbers made this game 65 points, so I see value here with both teams putting up quite a few points.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Alabama Crimson Tide defense is getting better and better every single week. Alabama ranks first in yards per play allowed at 4.06. That's just an amazing number. Let's look at the last three weeks. Alabama allowed only 2.59 yards per play against Tennessee. They allowed 4.03 yards per play against a good Texas A&M offense. They only allowed 2.45 yards per play last week against LSU. In 6 of Alabama's 9 games so far this year, they have allowed 10 points or less. 

Alabama isn't going to give up many points here. On the other hand, I'm not sure Alabama will run the score up as much as expected here. This is a noon start coming off a huge win at LSU. That was the toughest game on Alabama's schedule, and that was an extremely physical game. Alabama is likely to want to get out of this one healthy.

The sharp money here is clearly on the under with the early line move. I agree and will take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under*  I certainly don't like taking unders at this price but I believe there are many good reasons for the total to be set extremely low in this contest. Jake Bentley has been solid for South Carolina in their last three games but he has yet to play against a strong defense. Florida is third in the nation in total defense. South Carolina is 120th out of 128 teams in the nation in total offense. I can't imagine South Carolina scoring many points here.

Florida is without quarterback Luke Del Rio for this game. The Gators offense has been miserable of late and South Carolina should come well prepared to stop the run.

Both of these teams rank among the twenty slowest paced teams in the country. Take the under.

*3 Star CFB Tuesday Night MONEY* The Kent State Golden Flashes defense is actually a pretty good defense. Kent State is 41st in the nation out of 128 teams in rushing defense. Kent State is 36th out of 128 teams in the nation in passing defense.

The problem for Kent State is their offense. Kent State is dead last (128th) in the nation in total offense. Right now, Kent State has a wide receiver/running back playing quarterback. Nick Holley is a good runner, but it is difficult to move the football against quality defenses when they know the run is coming every time. 

Western Michigan is a really good team, and they run the ball very often. The Broncos will score their points here, but I think Kent can slow them down better than the average team. 

Both of these teams rank in the bottom 25 in terms of tempo. They also run the ball far more often than the average team in the country. A moving clock and possessions that take a lot of time will help here.

The under is 19-7-1 in Kent State's last 27 conference games. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Two teams who love to push the tempo and get off as many snaps as possible meet in this AAC showdown. Tulsa is playing at the second fastest pace of any team in the country. 

The Golden Hurricane offense started the season a little slower than expected, but they have cranked it into gear of late. They have scored less than 43 points only one time in their last six contests. Tulsa has scored 50 and 59 in their last two games. 

East Carolina's offense has put up huge yardage numbers without scoring at a high rate. That should regress to the mean with time, and last week we saw East Carolina put up 41 points on a good UConn defense. 

The over is 19-7 in Tulsa's last 26 home games. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams.

I see a high scoring game all the way here. Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Total of the MONTH* These two teams run the football more than any other teams in the country. Army only throws the football on 14.31% of their plays. Air Force only throws it on 19.85% of their passes. It will be a running clock almost all the time in this one. That's really important for the under. 

Also, these two offenses generally benefit from going against defenses who aren't well-prepared to stop the triple option. That won't be the case in this one. Both teams practice against the triple option on a daily basis. That's the single most important factor for this wager.

Army plays at the second slowest pace of any team in the country. Air Force is slightly slower than the average team as well. The long slow drives will eat up a ton of clock here. 

My number here was 42. A lot of value on this one. Take the under big. TOP Total of the Month. 

*Note- This line has dropped since I released this early in the week. I would still play this for a TOP rated play down to 45 points. Below 45 I would make it a 4 star play. Thank you!*

*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini are likely to be without starting quarterback Wes Lunt again in this game. Without Lunt, the Illinois offense has been a mess. Illinois had just 245 yards last week against Minnesota. They had only 8 first downs and 172 yards against Michigan two weeks ago. Even against lowly Rutgers, Illinois had only 10 first downs and 320 yards of offense. Michigan State's defense hasn't been up to par this year, but I think they'll be able to slow down this very short-handed Illinois offense. 

On the other side, Michigan State's offense hasn't been good this year either. The Spartans can't find an identity on offense. Illinois has gotten much more competitive on the defensive end, and Lovie Smith is a good defensive-minded head coach. 

Both teams play in the bottom 25 in terms of tempo, so there won't be very many snaps in this game. I see an ugly game between two teams who aren't likely to be able to put together long drives. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* This is definitely a low posted total, but I think it is this low for good reason. Wisconsin and Northwestern are both much better on the defensive side of the ball than the offensive end. 

Northwestern is 88th in the nation in total offense. Wisconsin is 95th in the nation in total offense. Northwestern is 54th in the nation in yards per play allowed at 5.4. Wisconsin is 12th in the nation in yards per play allowed at 4.6. 

The last two years the final score when these two met has been 20-14 and 13-7. The tempo of the game should be slow, and both teams like to run the football a lot. This is the type of game where I wouldn't expect to see many explosive plays. Both defenses are good at avoiding those. 

On the other hand, this sets up as a game where both teams struggle to punch it in the end zone, and end up settling for a lot of field goals. 

The under is 29-8 in Northwestern's last 37 home games. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane and Memphis Tigers met last year in a game that Memphis won 66-42. Memphis rolled up 704 yards of offense in that one. Tulsa had 534 yards in the loss.

Tulsa ranks second in the nation in terms of tempo. They are going to look to get plays off as soon as possible every single time. Evans is a really good fit for this offense. The Memphis defense has given up more than 40 points twice already this year.

Memphis ranks in the top 25 in terms of tempo. The Tigers are averaging 38.4 points per game so far this year. 

Tulsa has seen four of their last five games go over this total. In fact, all 4 of those games have gone to at least 77 points. The one that went under finished at 69 points also.

I see two offenses with big play ability up against defenses that are mediocre or worse. The pace of the game is a huge key. Take the over. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Total of Week* The Georgia Bulldogs and Florida Gators both play at a very slow pace. Both of them struggle to get explosive plays with their offense. When they score it is usually from long methodical drives.

Florida ranks in the bottom 25 in the country in terms of tempo. The Gators haven't proven anything against a good defense yet this year. Georgia's defense should be ready with a bye week and coming off a disappointing 17-16 loss to Vanderbilt.

Georgia is awfully one-dimensional right now, and Florida has one of the best defenses in the country. Florida is going to load up the box and force Georgia to try to beat them through the air. I don't think they can do it. Florida's secondary is among the best in the nation.

I think this game stays in the 30's. This total is several points too high. Take the under big. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati offense clicked better than it had all season last week. Why? Because finally Gunner Kiel was put back in the lineup. Kiel is the team's best quarterback and had been riding the bench while the offense struggled all year. Cincinnati put up more than 500 yards of offense last week, and I see this being a good offense moving forward.

Temple's running game has been much better of late. The Owls really showed me a lot on the ground last week against USF. Phillip Thomas has regressed as a quarterback, but he has big play potential both ways (long TD passes or interception runbacks for the opposition). 

The weather here is scheduled to be very nice, and this number is very reasonable. I think this is a spot where Cincinnati's poor offensive play earlier in the year is giving us a discounted total. Look for the Bearcats numbers to keep climbing throughout the rest of the season. I'll look to buy in on the over before those numbers take off too much. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Army Cadets play at the second slowest tempo of anyone in the country. Army cannot throw the football, and we saw great evidence of that last weekend. They threw four interceptions and only completed 7 passes.

The Cadets will be back to running it here, but I'm not sure they'll have much success against this strong Wake Forest defense. Dave Clawson is known as a great defensive coach, and he is doing a tremendous job with this Demon Deacons team. Wake Forest ranks 22nd in the country in yards per carry allowed.Wake Forest already stuffed the option very well once this year when they took on Tulane. There's no reason to believe they won't fare well in this one once again.

The Wake Forest offense has been terrible this year. They have no passing game and a subpar rushing game. Wake Forest also plays at a very slow tempo. 

I see this one as a game where we see a bunch of running clock, and not many possessions. Even on the possessions where they score, it should take a bunch of time off the clock. Take the under in this one. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys host West Virginia in a really big game in the Big 12 and for the national landscape. West Virginia hasn't lost a game yet. The Mountaineers defense is much better than anyone thought it would be. West Virginia only allowed 17 points to the high flying Texas Tech offense. They only gave up 10 points against a very good TCU offense also. Only once this year has West Virginia allowed more than 21 points.

Oklahoma State is definitely a good offense, but they are heavily reliant on the passing game with Mason Rudolph. The Cowboys should be hurt by the weather in this game. The forecast calls for 20-25 miles per hour winds during this game, which is plenty to change the way the passing game will work.

I see the weather making both teams run the ball more often. Also, in the last three years, the 3 meetings between these two teams haven't been any higher than 52 points at the end of regulation. This game is totaled too high.

The under is 21-7 in the Mountaineers last 28 games. The under is 17-4 in their last 21 conference games. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets play at the single slowest pace of any team in the country. Georgia Tech takes a ton of time in between plays. They are also up against a Duke team that has been terrific at stopping the option.

Take a look at the last three times Duke has played against a triple option team. They gave up 6 points and 3 points to Army in the last two seasons. They gave up 20 points against Georgia Tech last year. They have held their opponents way below their normal rushing yards consistently as well.

How does Duke do so well stopping option? Duke is using a very smart strategy of basically sacrificing one defensive player to try to blow through the line with an aggressive dive, but not make the tackle. It's a very cool thing to watch, and it has worked well. The one player disrupts the option read and slows the play down in the backfield, and it has caused a lot of lost yardage plays for triple option teams.

Duke's offense isn't very good at all. Their efficiency has been poor in almost every game this year, and I don't see them putting up too many points here. 

I like this one to stay in the 40's. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Central Michigan Chippewas run defense has been good against everyone except for Western Michigan so far this year. Western Michigan has one of the best offenses in the nation though, so I can forgive a poor performance there. The reason that is so important is because Kent State can only run the football. 

Kent has converted Nick Holley from a running back/wide receiver over to quarterback because of poor quarterback play and injuries. Holley is a good runner, but he can't throw it much at all. Central Michigan knows what is coming here, and they should be able to stop it. 

On the other side, Central Michigan's offense hasn't been balanced this year either. They haven't been able to get a running game going. Kent's defense is in the top 1/3 of teams in the country in pass defense. 

This projects as a game where Kent puts up a really low number and Central Michigan wins comfortably. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Toledo Rockets run the football very well, but Ohio's strength on defense is stopping the run. Ohio is 15th in the nation in rushing defense when it comes to yards per carry. They are allowing only 3.18 yards per carry. 

The Rockets play at a slower tempo than a normal team, and Ohio plays at an average tempo. Neither team will be pushing the tempo here. Ohio's offense has struggled this year. The Bobcats don't have enough playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. Ohio only put up 20 points two weeks ago against a subpar Eastern Michigan defense. They only scored 14 in their win against Kent State last week.

With both teams running the football a lot, the clock will be ticking away here. I had this game lined at 53 points, so I see plenty of value here. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas Tech Red Raiders have already played three games that have gone over this total. Oklahoma has played two that went over this total as well. Texas Tech's offense was disappointing last weekend and Kliff Kingsbury was upset with their pace and production. Look for a better output from them in this one. 

Oklahoma's pass defense has some really ugly numbers so far this year. The Sooners are susceptible to big plays in the passing game. 

Texas Tech's defense is among the worst in the nation, and I see the Sooners breaking big plays on a constant basis here. While it is hard to set a total there, my number for this game was 89. 

Take the over in what should be a shootout. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers still have a dynamic offense led by Mike White at quarterback. White isn't as good as Brandon Doughty was in this system, but he's still very good. It helps having an outstanding wide receiver on the outside in Taywan Taylor. Also, Anthony Wales is a very good running back who is sometimes overlooked.

Old Dominion's pass defense numbers aren't too bad so far this year, but look at who they have played. The only decent passing attack they have played all year is NC State. Western Kentucky will easily be the best passing offense they have gone against. 

In the last two years, Western Kentucky scored 66 and 55 points against Old Dominion. I don't think they'll reach those numbers, but it won't surprise me if they get close to 50 here. 

Western Kentucky's defense is down a notch from last year. They lost some key guys in the secondary, and the Hilltoppers have been giving up a lot of big plays through the air.

The tempo should be pretty quick in this one. The weather is also expected to be great. The high of 65 degrees with almost no wind is perfect.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane rank number one in the country in terms of pace. I have looked for spots to play Tulane unders this year, but with the quick line move down, there is too much value on the over for me to pass on this one. Tulsa has been a scoring machine this year. Outside of their loss to Ohio State, they have scored at least 31 points in every game. In fact, Houston is the team that held them to 31 points. In the rest of their games, they have scored at least 41 points. 

Tulsa will play extremely fast, and Tulsa's offense should be able to get some big plays on this Tulane defense. Tulane hasn't been playing teams that play the style that Tulsa does. On the other side, Tulane's option offense should break some plays against a weak rushing defense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons can run the football extremely well. They run the triple option and they are going to run it constantly. Hawaii hasn't been able to stop the run at all this year. In fact, opponents are averaging a whopping 5.6 yards per carry against this Hawaii defense. They aren't accustomed to defending the triple option, and Air Force put up 58 points on them last year.

The Hawaii offense is playing faster of late, and Dru Brown has done a nice job at quarterback. Hawaii has a quality back in Saint Juste and I expect some big plays out of him. Air Force's secondary has been susceptible to big plays this year, and Hawaii should pick up some big ones both through the air and on the ground.

Three of Hawaii's last five games have topped 70 points. Air Force has allowed 80 points in their last two games. Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA FB TOP Total of Week* The Kent State Golden Flashes cannot throw the football. They have tried multiple guys at quarterback, and quite frankly, none of them have played well at all. 

Kent finally decided to go with Nick Holley a couple weeks ago. Nick Holley returns punts, played wide receiver and running back in the past, and can't throw the football well. Still, Holley was the best option the team had, because he is a good runner. Unfortunately for Kent, Holley got hurt last week in the team's 18-14 loss at Miami (Ohio). Holley suffered a concussion and is questionable to play Saturday.  

If Holley doesn't play this weekend, the team is thinking of going to another running back who has no experience at quarterback. This is a really messy situation for Kent State.

Consider that Ohio is their opponent here, and Ohio is great at stopping the run. The Bobcats are #15 in the nation in yards per carry allowed at 3.15 per carry. Kent is going to be very one dimensional if Holley plays, and just about 100% one dimensional if Holley doesn't play. I have to think that if Ohio knows the run is coming, they will be able to stop it.

On the other side, Kent State's defense has been pretty good this year, at least when they play against MAC schools.

Ohio's offense is nothing special either. Both of these teams prefer to run the football and the advanced forecast for this game is calling for 15-20 mph winds which would certainly make it even harder to throw the ball.

I think 46 is several points too high. Given all the factors going into this one, I'm going to take the under for a big play here. TOP Total of the Week. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UCLA Bruins have an injured star quarterback. Josh Rosen's status is very much in doubt for this game, and that is why the number is where it is on the spread in this game. Rosen won't be healthy if he does play, and I think it would be unwise for him to play after watching him at the end of last game.

UCLA's backup, Mike Fafaul looked terrible in his quarter of play against Arizona State, and I think the UCLA offense is in trouble if he is under center.

Washington State has been running the ball more of late, and their offensive line is much improved this season. The Cougars defense is also light years better than it was in previous seasons.

UCLA's defense is very talented, and they have kept the Bruins in several games this season when the offense has been bad.

The single biggest reason I'm making this bet though is the weather. The weather forecast for Pullman, Washington on Saturday night calls for steady rain and wind gusts of 30 mph. That's great weather for an under.

Look for a sloppy game here. Take the under. 

*5 Star CFB Hidden GEM TOP Total* The Colorado State Rams go to Boise to take on the Boise State Broncos here. The weather should be a major factor in this game. There is currently a 70% chance of rain and more importantly heavy wind during this game. The wind is expected to be 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph during the game. 

Wind like that makes it very difficult to throw the football. Last weekend, the games that were played during Hurricane Matthew in the southeast all stayed well under the posted totals. It was a perfect example of why the biggest weather factor to betting totals is wind. A lot of wind is a big positive for the under. 

Colorado State's best quarterback, Colin Hill, just went down with an injury last weekend, and now the Rams must go back to quarterbacks who struggled in the first two weeks of the season. Boise State's defense has been better than expected this year, and CSU has a poor running game. I find it hard to believe that Colorado State will score much at all in this one.

Boise State is likely to be content running the ball with a big lead late in the game and ugly weather conditions.

The under is 8-1 in Boise State's last 9 home games. I liked the under some before the weather conditions looked so bad, and I like the under a lot when factoring in the weather. Take the under big. 

*This line has moved and I expect it to continue to move when people get the weather report here. I would play this as a 5 star play as low as 55 points and for 4 stars below that level. Thank you*

***FINAL CORRECTION*** 

*4 Star Play Under* The UConn Huskies are great at making a game low scoring. Even the high flying Syracuse Orange could only get the total to 55 points when they played against UConn. 

UConn has one of the worst offenses in college football. The Huskies can't throw it and they definitely can't run the ball.

The UConn front seven on defense is very good though, and USF runs the ball a bunch. I expect UConn to do a solid job slowing them down.

Last year, the meeting between these two was 28-20, and I think a total of 47 or 48 is about where this one should be.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas State Bobcats and Louisiana Monroe Warhawks are similar teams. They both have first year head coaches who are looking to push the tempo and institute a pass happy offense. 

Neither of these teams are very good, but I think the offenses will look good in this one against two bad pass defenses. I like spots like this where we see two offenses that aren't all that efficient, but they are going to run a ton of plays against a really bad defense. It generally makes the offenses look a lot better than they are, and turns the game into a shootout. 

I expect both teams to air it out constantly, and big plays for both sides are likely during this game. Look for a close game with the offenses having the edge throughout. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* I believe we are getting some value here from Syracuse playing a really low scoring game last week. It is important to note though that game was played in North Carolina when Hurricane Matthew was going through. All the games played in those conditions were extremely low scoring.

This one will be played in a dome, and this is a fast track. Virginia Tech's offense has been very efficient this year, and I think they'll carve up this Syracuse defense. 

Syracuse pushes the tempo so well, that they will get a bunch of cracks at scoring here, and they should be successful enough to get us past this number. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers defense is worse than it was a year ago. They lost some key pieces in the secondary. MTSU is no better than mediocre on the defensive end.

These two teams both love to air it out early and often. Both of these teams look to push the tempo and get as many possessions as possible.

Brent Stockstill is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country, and he should have a huge game for MTSU here. They've had two weeks to prepare and they play a Western Kentucky team that just gave up 55 points to LA Tech. 

White has been a pretty good fit for Western Kentucky, and the MTSU defense has been torn up several times this year. The Hilltoppers have a pretty good running game as well.

Big plays all game from both teams. Take the over. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini don't know yet if Wes Lunt is going to play here. Illinois hasn't had much success on offense with him, but the drop off is large when he isn't playing as well.

The Illinois defense should improve with Lovie Smith and a good defensive coordinator. The Rutgers offense scored 0 points on Ohio State and 0 on Michigan. Back to back shutouts! Rutgers lost their best offensive player (Grant) a couple weeks ago, and this team is totally lost on offense.

I had this one lined at 47 points, and I see a bunch of value here. Neither team plays very fast, and both offenses are extremely inefficient. I see a sloppy game all the way that stays well below the posted total. Take the under big. 

*This line has moved the last couple days. I recommend playing this as a top rated play as low as 51, and for 4 stars below that level. Thank you*

*5 Star College Football TOP Total of the Week* The Purdue Boilermakers are good at turning things into a high scoring game. Why? They are much improved on offense, and they should be able to run the ball against an Iowa defensive front that is actually allowing more than 4 yards per carry this year. 

Purdue also has a terrible defense that gives up a bunch of big plays. Beathard is a good quarterback for Iowa, and the Hawkeyes have a strong offensive line that will dominate Purdue's defensive front.

Purdue is pushing the tempo and playing about as fast as anyone in the Big Ten right now. The Boilermakers have consistently turned the ball over in places where the opposition gets quick scores, and I think that happens again in this one.

Iowa's defense isn't as strong as normal, and Purdue's offense is better than normal. I had this total lined at 58 points. Take the over big. 

*This line has moved the last couple days. I recommend a top rated play up to 53 points, and a 4 star rating at a higher level than that. Thank you*

*4 Star Play Under* The Miami Hurricanes are playing at a significantly slower pace of late under Mark Richt. Richt's teams have always played at a methodical pace, and the Hurricanes are turning into that team right now. Miami ranks in the bottom 30 teams in the country in tempo. 

Florida State is just one spot above Miami in my tempo rankings (31st slowest in the country). The Seminoles offense has been inconsistent this year. Francois is a very good long term quarterback, but this is a difficult situation for a youngster. 

Dalvin Cook is a great back, but Miami ranks tenth in the nation in yards per carry allowed at only 2.60 yards per carry. Florida State's offensive line isn't likely to be able to get a good push against Miami. 

The Florida State defense has been poor this year. They have allowed too many big plays in the passing game. Still, this defense has too many guys who are talented to be terrible all year long. 

Here's a case where we get two teams who play slowly and we still see a total of 65.5. It's too high. I think this is a game that is played to the high 50's. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Alabama Crimson Tide and Arkansas Razorbacks have played two tough games against each other the last two years. Last year, Alabama won 27-14 in Alabama. Two years ago, the Crimson Tide won 14-13 in Arkansas. 

Two years ago there were only 562 total yards of offense when these two played against each other. Last year, there were only 616 total yards of offense when they met. This has usually been a defensive battle.

I think we see a lot of defense again here. The Crimson Tide defense is excellent, and they stop the run very well. Arkansas is always a run first team, and I don't see Bama's defense giving up too much on the ground. 

Alabama's offense is good, but it isn't yet great. Arkansas has a veteran defense that should be able to at least slow them down. 

Arkansas plays at the fifth slowest tempo of anyone in the country. Alabama ranks among the bottom quarter of teams in tempo as well.

Take the under. 

*Note- The market has moved this number lower since I placed my bet early in the week, but I would still play this for the same rating down to as low as 48 points. It would be a 3 star play lower than that. Thank you*

*5 Star TOP Play Under* This number is several points too high. I was surprised to see this line when it was released. I made this total 45 points. Vanderbilt's offense still can't do anything this year. The Commodores have only been able to score when their defense creates a bunch of turnovers and gives them short fields constantly. 

Kentucky has had some high scoring games this year, but they played a 17-10 game two weeks ago against a South Carolina team that I believe is similar to this Vanderbilt team. The Wildcats offense isn't very good, and Vanderbilt still has a pretty good defense.

Vanderbilt moves very slowly and will run the ball consistently and try to milk the clock. With a total set this high, I'll take this one as a top play under. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Jose State Spartans and the Hawaii Warriors meet on Saturday afternoon. These are two defenses who have been giving up big plays a ton this year. How much? San Jose State has allowed 18 plays from scrimmage of at least 30 yards this year. Only 3 teams in the entire country have allowed more than that. Hawaii is near the bottom of the pack as well, having allowed 14 plays of 30 yards or more. 

Both offenses have 15 plays of 30 yards or more on the year, so in this one we have two offenses who are very capable of big plays on a consistent basis against defenses who give them up regularly.

Hawaii has picked up their tempo in their last couple games, and they have found a quarterback for the system in Dru Brown. San Jose State's defense is one of the worst in the nation. 

San Jose State has a nice playmaker in Kenny Potter at quarterback and he is expected to be healthier in this one, after having an ankle injury last weekend and playing through it.

Take the over in this contest. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Air Force Falcons pass the ball on only 17.18% of their offensive plays. Air Force is all about the triple option. Craig Bohl and his defensive coordinator have both had a lot of experience defending the triple option.

Wyoming hosts this game, and the Cowboys are clearly an improved team. Where are they improved most? On the defensive line. Wyoming is allowing only 3.74 yards per carry so far this year compared to 5.3 yards per carry a year ago. It's quite a change, and the Cowboys are well equipped to at least slow down Air Force.

Wyoming is throwing the ball on only 39.79% of their passing plays. The Cowboys are a run first team. Air Force has been tremendous against the run this year. The Falcons are second in the nation against the run this year. They are allowing only 1.84 yards per carry on the season. Wyoming is likely to find it hard to run on Air Force.

The fact that both teams run the ball so often keeps the clock running. This is a really high total for a game between two teams who run it often and two defenses who stop the run very well. 

The two meetings between these two teams since Bohl came to Wyoming were 31-17 and 17-14. In last year's 31-17 game, the score was 14-3 after 3 quarters. In the 2014 matchup, the score was 10-7 after three quarters of play.

The under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams. Take the under big! 

*4 Star Play Under* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and NC State Wolfpack would likely surpass this posted total in normal conditions, but the latest forecasts show winds of around 20 mph and heavy rain during this game from Hurricane Matthew. 

While rain by itself doesn't hurt scoring as much as most people think, wind driven rain definitely hurts the passing games. Neither of these teams are particularly good on the ground, and they are going to be forced to run it more than they want to in this game. I expect the weather to play a large role in this game.

Also important to note is the fact that both of these teams are playing slower than average tempo-wise. I think the pace slows down even more in the drenching rain and heavy wind. 

Sometimes you have to make plays based on the weather, and that is exactly what this one is a: a play on wind and rain keeping this one lower scoring. Take the under. 

*Note- The latest forecasts are looking even worse for this game and the total is crashing. With wind expected at 35 mph, this game should be brutal. I continue to like the under here as long as the price is 56 or higher. Thank you*

*3 Star Play Under* The Auburn Tigers are a much different team this year than they have been in the past. When you think of Auburn, you typically think of a fast paced offense. This year, they are actually in the bottom 50 in terms of tempo. You also think of a high powered offense, but they don't have that this season. The Tigers have put up big point totals on Arkansas State and UL Monroe, but against quality opponents they have struggled to score.

Mississippi State's defense has been very good against the run so far this year. The Bulldogs have held 2 of their 4 opponents under 100 yards rushing and both of those were home games. They'll be at home here, and I think they can slow down this Auburn rushing attack.

Auburn's defense is much better this year, and Mississippi State is missing playmakers on the offensive end. The Bulldogs passing game is poor, and they rely heavily on the ability to run. Auburn has a good front 7 led by Lawson, and I think they will hold their own here.

I expect a hard fought game here without many big plays. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Midnight MADNESS* The Hawaii Warriors host the Nevada Wolf Pack in a game where weather should play a major role. Showers are expected throughout the game, but the bigger story will be winds gusting at 25 miles per hour during the game. While rain is often neutral for points in a game, winds are always very good for under bettors. 

Nevada's offense has really struggled to get going this year. Their efficiency on offense has been far worse than I expected. The Wolf Pack are going to have to run the ball here, and Hawaii will know it is coming.

Hawaii is improved on offense, but most of their improvement comes from a better passing game. I don't think that passing game will work with these winds. 

Nevada has a strong front seven on defense and I think they can make it hard for Hawaii to score in these conditions. 

This isn't a game I would play the under on in normal conditions, but in weather conditions like this, I'll play the under. 

One final very telling number here. Of all the bets placed on the total here thus far: 60% of them are on the over, but 74% of the money is on the under. The sharp money has sided with the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Indiana Hoosiers rank sixth in the country in tempo. Indiana is going to want to turn this into a high scoring game. They want as many possessions as possible. While you would think a game against Michigan State would have to stay low scoring- look at the recent meetings between these two teams. A whopping nine straight meetings between these two teams have gone over this posted total! Two years ago the score was 56-17 and last year the final was 52-26. 

The Spartans haven't had any trouble scoring on this Indiana defense, and the Hoosiers are just as bad as ever on defense this year. The entire defensive line is new from last year. MSU put up 36 points on Notre Dame. Notre Dame isn't a good defense this year, but they are certainly a better defense than Indiana.

Indiana put up over 600 yards of offense against Wake Forest, but turnovers haunted them in that game. The Hoosiers should have enough offense to keep this one pretty close.

The over is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings. Take the over.

*3 Star Play Over* Larry Rose III is back for the New Mexico State Aggies, and he makes this a totally different offense. New Mexico State's Tyler Rogers is a pretty good quarterback who can make plays, but having Rose in the backfield with him makes this offense much better. 

LA Lafayette is coming off a really tough 4 overtime loss to Tulane 41-39. The Ragin' Cajuns have an excellent running back in McGuire, and he should run through this weak run defense of the Aggies without any issues. 

Last year's meeting between these two was 37-34. This year, both of these teams have picked up their tempo compared to last season. This total is set a few points lower than I believe it should be. 

The weather in Las Cruces is expected to be beautiful for this game, and I think we'll see a high scoring contest. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Central Michigan Chippewas have a really good quarterback in Cooper Rush. With Rush at the helm, Central Michigan is a team that can create big plays. Central Michigan is 7th in the nation in "explosive" plays, plays of 20 yards or more with 28 already this year.

Western Michigan's defense has improved a lot against the run this year, but they are giving up big plays in the passing game. The Broncos have already allowed 4 passing plays of 40 yards or more on the year despite not playing against good quarterbacks. Also, Western Michigan has allowed their opponent to throw for a season high in passing yards in each of their games.

On the other side, Western Michigan's offense is as balanced as you will ever see from a MAC team. The Broncos can score on anyone. They have a good quarterback and two great running backs. Davis is an elite wide receiver. The Broncos should be able to move the ball consistently here. 

Rain in the area is the only reason this play isn't rated higher. I'll temper my enthusiasm a bit, but still a recommend a play on the over. 

Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA TOP Total of the Month* The Charlotte 49ers and the Old Dominion Monarchs both have horrendous defenses. Both of these teams give up big plays by the bunches. Last year when they met the final score was 37-34. This year, both of the teams are much more experienced on offense. Old Dominion is getting much better quarterback play than a year ago, and the Monarchs should score plenty here.

Charlotte has Miami transfer Kevin Olsen at quarterback and he has been up and down, but against this weak ODU secondary he should look good. The 49ers have a couple good running backs who are more than capable of busting some big runs also. 

I made this total 66 points. A lot of value on the over in this game. Take the over big. TOP Total of the Month. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* The Bowling Green Falcons defense is awful. They allowed 77 points to Ohio State. That was Ohio State so it is somewhat understandable, but last weekend they allowed 77 points to Memphis. The Memphis Tigers scored 77 points on Bowling Green. The worst part was Memphis had 77 with 14 minutes left and then quit scoring out of kindness.

Bowling Green's offense should have more success against an EMU defense that is among the worst defenses in the country. The Falcons still have some offensive weapons from last year's team that was great on offense.

Eastern Michigan is playing quicker and has much more talent on offense than they have had in past years. I think this one gets into the 70's. Take the over big. 

*4 Star Play Under* Navy and Air Force both run the same offense. They both run the ball nearly every time they line up. While it is usually really difficult for the opposition to prepare for these offenses, in this case it is easy. They play against it every single day in practice. 

Navy is one of the slowest paced teams in the country. They often have long 7 or 8 minute drives and that makes a big difference when you have a total like this one. Air Force is slower than the average team as well.

Look for the two defenses to understand their assignments well here. With tons of running the football, this clock will be ticking away quickly. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Florida State Seminoles offense got on track in a big way last week against USF. Dalvin Cook ran for 267 yards on only 28 carries last week. The USF defense isn't a bad one either. Florida State had a hiccup at Louisville, but remember they also put up 45 points against a good Ole Miss game in the season opener. This offense is capable of very big things. 

North Carolina's secondary is good, but the Tar Heels struggle against good running teams (4.97 yards per carry). That showed again last week when the Tar Heels were very fortunate to beat Pittsburgh after the Panthers dominated them on the ground. Expect FSU to have a big game on the ground here. 

North Carolina's offense plays very fast and they make big plays. The Tar Heels rank in the top ten in pass plays of more than 30 yards. Florida State ranks in the bottom 20 in the nation in allowing explosive plays. The Seminoles defense is a real concern, and I see North Carolina putting up plenty of points here too.

Back and forth in this one. Take the over. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Play Over* The East Carolina Pirates are playing quickly still, and their defense is very weak. UCF has changed the way they play with Scott Frost as head coach. He has termed the team "UCFast". Here is another chance for them to play very quickly against an opponent who wants to do the same.

These offenses aren't the most efficient ever, but at a number of only 57.5 I have to go with a big play on the over. My projected number here was 65. 

With this many possessions for each team, I expect there to be enough big plays to get us past the posted total.

Take the over big. 

*Note- this line has moved since I sent it out to clients early this week- but I still like the play at current levels for a top rated selection*

*4 Star NCAA FB Early Bird Special* The Georgia State Panthers offense had a really good quarterback in Nick Arbuckle the last couple years. Arbuckle put up huge stats for this team, and the Panthers offense was solid last season. Look at the last two meetings with Appalachian State though, and you'll see that Georgia State could do nothing on offense. Importantly, that was with Arbuckle under center. Georgia State scored 0 points and had only 62 yards of total offense two years ago! Last year, they scored only 3 points. 

It's hard to see Georgia State scoring many in this game. The Panthers have talent downgrades at some key positions on the offensive end, and Appalachian State has the best defense in the Sun Belt. Another important factor in this game is Appalachian State's pace of play. They rank among the slowest teams in the nation. The Mountaineers should be glad to run the football late to just use up the clock.

Marcus Cox is the Mountaineers star at RB and he is doubtful for this game. The Mountaineers will still score plenty of points here, but it definitely is a downgrade. 

A blowout win for App State with the defense dominating should be expected. 

The under is 7-0 in GA State's last 7 on turf. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 conference games. The under is 2-0 in the last 2 meetings between these two. A 14-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Play Late Night BAILOUT* The Cal Golden Bears play extremely fast, and they play absolutely zero defense. Arizona State plays almost as fast, and their defense isn't good either. It was 48-46 last time these two met and I see another shootout here. I projected this total at 89 points, so I'm glad to get this number. 

Cal's Webb is a great fit at quarterback, and he has some nice playmakers around him. The Arizona State secondary is a major weakness. Look at what happened when they played Texas Tech earlier this year. 

Tons of tempo and the offenses with the edge all night. Shootout on the West Coast here. I certainly don't like to make a habit of taking overs at this kind of number, but it wouldn't surprise me if this game got to 100 points combined with the kind of tackling I've seen out of these two defenses so far this year.

Take the over big. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Memphis Tigers are still playing at a pretty quick pace this year. They use the spread offense. Bowling Green is playing at the ninth fastest pace of any team in the country. Bowling Green's offensive numbers this year don't look impressive, but I think that is at least somewhat understandable.

Bowling Green faced a great Ohio State defense in week one. Last week, they played against MTSU in a monsoon, where the field was tearing up and the offenses were stalling out late in the game. The Falcons should still be able to score quite a few in the long term. At the same time, the Bowling Green defense is among the worst in football, and they'll give up a lot of quick scores throughout the year.

Take the over.  

*3 Star Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders offense is going to score a lot of points this year. Tony Franklin is their new offensive coordinator and he is looking to push the tempo at every opportunity. Brent Stockstill is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country, and Franklin is great at coaching up quarterbacks. I see huge things ahead for Stockstill. 

Louisiana Tech's defense lost just about everything from a year ago. The Bulldogs allowed 24 points against lowly South Carolina State two weeks ago, and then Texas Tech put up 59 points on them last weekend. I'm not suggesting MTSU will score 59, but they should score a lot.

At the same time, MTSU has been gashed in the running game two weeks in a row. Vanderbilt ran for 231 yards two weeks ago. Bowling Green, who had been bad running the football prior to last week, ran for a whopping 304 yards against MTSU last weekend. Craft is averaging better than 7 yards per carry for LA Tech and the Bulldogs have a long history of producing good running backs. LA Tech should score a lot here as well.

Nice weather and two high powered offenses. Take the over. 

*5 Star CFB Hidden GEM TOP Total* The Fresno State Bulldogs aren't any good this year, but they want to play quickly. That plays right into the hands of the Tulsa Golden Hurricane. Tulsa has played some pretty good defenses this year, and that has kept their numbers down. That gives us line value to take the over here. 

The Fresno State defense will rank among the bottom 10 or 20 in the nation at the end of the year, and this is a defense that Tulsa's run and shoot offense should carve up. Look for Dane Evans and Keevan Lucas to have huge days. I think the Fresno State defense will be particularly vulnerable to teams who can spread them out and that is what Tulsa is great at on the offensive end. 

Tulsa gave up the second most points in the country last year at almost 40 points per game. Fresno State should be able to put up enough to get us there. Virgil is a guy who many believe can turn into a solid quarterback in time, and he is up against a weak defense.

Take the over big. 

*3 Star Play Over* The North Carolina Tar Heels always like to play quickly. I don't expect that to change in this one. North Carolina's Mitch Trubisky will improve in this offense as the season moves along. He has plenty of weapons around him, and in this one he is up against a really weak Pittsburgh secondary.

Pittsburgh's problem on defense is they are having to send blitzes to get pressure on the quarterback, and they simply don't have enough talent in the secondary to constantly send blitzes. Still, Pat Narduzzi's style is to be aggressive on defense. North Carolina should be able to beat them over the top some as both Penn State and Oklahoma State did in recent weeks. The Cowboys Mason Rudolph threw for a ridiculous 372 yards in the first half alone last weekend.

Pitt's offense is improved this year. They have a new system that is taking more chances, and I like what I've seen from this group. North Carolina's defensive line isn't very good against the run, and Pitt can do damage there. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both of these offenses are better than they were a year ago. In last year's game, the final was 36-31. UTSA's Dalton Sturm is a much improved quarterback, and against a team like ODU he should have plenty of ability to extend plays as he is so good at doing. The Roadrunners have a new offensive system which I believe suits their skillsets better than last year's.

Old Dominion has the best offensive line they have had in years. The Monarchs have a very solid group of running backs, and I see them having a big day here. Old Dominion saw their last 7 games last season go over this posted total. 

In last year's contest between these two, there were almost 1,000 yards. The weather is forecasted to be nice for this one. I have to side with the over in this one. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Virginia Tech Hokies are a different team this year. They are spreading things out and playing much faster. Justin Fuente had a ton of success with this style of play at Memphis, and now he is implementing it here. The Hokies have been pretty good so far this year. They put up 49 points against a good Boston College defense last week. They also scored 24 on a good Tennessee defense the week before.

East Carolina beat Virginia Tech 35-28 last year. The Pirates will get Virginia Tech's best effort here. East Carolina has been better than I expected this year, mainly because they have a top ten passing attack in the country. East Carolina is looking to play quickly, and that should give them opportunities here.

East Carolina's secondary is a weak spot, and I think Virginia Tech can exploit it. The Hokies don't have a dominating defense this year, and ECU should score plenty as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Can Kent score here? Kent State hasn't been able to do anything on offense all year. They can barely score on FCS teams. I'll be surprised if the Golden Flashes put up more than 7 points here. Alabama has no real reason to drive Kent State into the ground here. Rather, it would make far more sense for the Crimson Tide to take care of business, stay healthy, and move onto the next week.

Look for a sloppy game where the under cashes in because Alabama is unmotivated. Remember, they are coming off a game where they got their revenge against Ole Miss. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Purdue Boilermakers are trying to play at a quicker tempo this year. Purdue does have the ability to get yards this year. In fact, they moved up and down the field against a pretty good Cincinnati defense. They just turned it over five times. If they can avoid the turnover, they should be able to score quite a few on a weak Nevada defense.

Nevada runs the spread offense, and they have a veteran (Stewart) at quarterback who should pick apart this soft Purdue defense.

My numbers made this total 62.5, so I see plenty of value. Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Saturday Late Night BAILOUT* The Arizona Wildcats offense hasn't been able to get going so far this year, but I think they have found the perfect tonic for their problems: the Hawaii defense. Hawaii gave up 51 points to Cal. They allowed 63 points at Michigan. They allowed 36 points to Tennessee Martin (an FCS team). 

Arizona's Anu Solomon is questionable for this game, but I feel confident in either Solomon or backup Brandon Dawkins in this one. In fact, Dawkins is one of the most highly touted quarterback recruits to go to Arizona. Nick Wilson should be able to have a big day here. Hawaii allowed more than 200 rushing yards to Tennessee Martin, and that tells you a lot. 

The Hawaii offense is definitely improved this year with new coach Nick Rolovich. Woolsey is a decent quarterback who can spread the ball around. This Arizona defense allowed 35.8 points per game last year. I do believe they are some better this year, but they are still going to allow plenty of yards and points.

This total has gotten too low based on Arizona's initial problems on offense this year. I'll take the value on the over. 

*5 Star SEC TOP Total CRUSHER* The Missouri Tigers are playing much faster this year. There is no question about that. The part that I question is whether their offense is efficient enough for totals to be going this high against a good defense. The posted total here opened at 45 points. It' now sits at 56 points. Now, I wouldn't have played the under at 45 points, but I definitely have to play it at 56 points. 

Missouri is 25th in the nation in tempo, so they are playing quickly. However, Missouri ranks in the bottom 25 teams in the country in terms of offensive efficiency. Drew Lock is only a mediocre quarterback and the Tigers offensive line and running game aren't very good.

The Georgia Bulldogs have a defensive minded coach in Kirby Smart. I don't expect to see Georgia get carved up by this faster paced Missouri offense here.

Georgia is a very slow paced team. The Bulldogs offensive coordinator came from Pittsburgh, and the Panthers ranked among the ten slowest paced teams in the country last year. The Bulldogs have all sorts of question marks on their offense right now. 

Georgia doesn't know who to play at quarterback, and that's always a problem. The offensive line wasn't expected to be a problem, but they have been bad so far this year. They didn't even average 4 yards per carry against Nicholls State. Missouri's strength is their defensive line, and I see them being able to slow down this Georgia offense.

I know these teams are different this year, but the final was 9-6 last year when they played and it was 34-0 two years ago. I don't see this game blowing up and being really high scoring. My number is 49 points here.

The under is 4-0 in Georgia's last 4 following an ATS loss. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 after allowing less than 275 total yards last game. The under is 11-0 in their last 11 after allowing 170 passing yards or less last game. The under is 5-0 in Missouri's last 5 games following a straight up win. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a win by 20 points or more. The under is 2-0 in the last 2 meetings between these two. A 33-0 angle. 

Take the under big. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Navy Midshipmen and Tulane Green Wave both want to run the ball nearly every play. That much running of the football means the clock will be rolling almost all the time. Tulane runs the option now with new coach Willie Fritz and Navy has a ton of experience running and defending the option obviously. Tulane has slowed Navy down better than the average team in the past couple tries (last year they actually outgained Navy in a 31-14 loss), and their experience defending the option this year can do nothing but help. 

I had this one lined at 42 points, so I see significant value. Take the under big. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UCF Knights are looking to play a very fast tempo this year. UCF has Scott Frost as their new head coach and he's been at Oregon in the past. UCF gets a good chance to play much faster in this one as they take on a Maryland team who wants to play much quicker this year as well with D.J. Durkin at the helm.

Maryland put up 41 points against FIU last week, and FIU is a team that slows the game down. UCF won't slow things down, and the UCF defense isn't what it was a couple years ago. With their quicker pace, I expect UCF's defensive numbers to be poor this year.

Justin Holman is questionable at quarterback for UCF, so I've kept this down to a 3 star play instead of something bigger, but I believe UCF can score some here regardless of who plays. Maryland's defense is nothing better than mediocre.

Tempo is the key in this one. Take the over. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Total of the Week* The Georgia Southern Eagles have one of the top three rushing attacks in the country. Georgia Southern's Matt Breida is a monster in the backfield, and he's going to rack up at least 1,500 yards again this year. Both Upshaw and Ellison are excellent at the quarterback spot. This is a potent running attack that can break huge plays against weak defenses.

Louisiana Monroe is one of the worst teams in all of college football. Their single biggest weakness is stopping the run. This is a recipe for disaster for them. Monroe's defense is at least as bad as a year ago, and Georgia Southern rolled up 503 yards of offense and 51 points when playing at LA Monroe last season. It won't surprise me if Georgia Southern gets around 50 again here. 

Louisiana Monroe plays a much different style on offense this year than they did last season. Last year, they were one of the slowest paced teams in the country. New Coach Matt Viator has them spreading out things and looking to play quickly this year. Sophomore quarterback Garrett Smith is a pretty solid quarterback, and I expect him to have some pretty good numbers in this system.

Georgia Southern's biggest weakness is their secondary, where they had to replace everyone from a year ago. The Eagles haven't been tested in the secondary so far this year, but I think LA Monroe can get some plays down the field in this one. 

Last year's game was 51-31 with both teams playing slowly. The defenses are worse on the whole this year, and the tempo will be quicker. 

The over is 30-13-1 in LA Monroe's last 44 games vs. a team with a winning record.

Take the over big. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather forecast here is pretty ugly. Showers throughout this game and even more importantly wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph. That should slow things down in this game. Colorado relies heavily on the passing game, and I don't see them having much success throwing the ball in these conditions. Michigan's front seven on defense are too good for Colorado's offensive line. The Buffaloes are unlikely to be able to run the ball here.

Michigan plays at one of the slowest paces in the country. Because they have seen 9 straight games go over the posted total at home, the total has been inflated by the oddsmakers on this game. Without the weather, I would have passed here. With the bad weather, I think this one is worth a play on the under. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* The Syracuse defense looked about as hapless as you could look in last week's loss to Louisville. If it weren't for Louisville turning it over in key situations, they would have scored 70 points or more against this Cuse defense. South Florida's Quinten Flowers is a very underrated quarterback, and he plays a lot like Lamar Jackson from Louisville. He isn't quite as good, but he can do similar things. He'll have a field day against this Syracuse defense that is thin up front and is now missing two cornerbacks due to injuries.

Syracuse's offense should just improve over time as Dino Babers has proven to be a great offensive minded coach. Dungey fits the system well. 

USF put up 48 on Northern Illinois last week, and I think they score that many or more here as well. Syracuse should be able to score enough to get us well past the total. Take the over big. 

*I had this one projected at 80 points, so even with the line move during the week I still like the over in this game. Thank you*

*5 Star TOP Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders are playing much quicker with Tony Franklin as their offensive coordinator and Brent Stockstill is a great guy to have under center in this type of offense. MTSU should move the ball at will against this terrible Bowling Green defense. MTSU moved it easily against Vanderbilt last week and then had turnovers and penalties. This week, they play a much worse defense.

Bowling Green hasn't been able to get the offense rolling this year, but I think they do this week. MTSU is weak on the defensive front and the Falcons play a tremendous uptempo style of offense. 

There will be a ton of possessions in this game. Take the over big. 

*3 Star CFB Total DOMINATION* The Iowa Hawkeyes and Iowa State Cyclones are obviously rivals. When these two meet, there is a long history of low scoring games. The last four games between these two have stayed under the total. None of them have gone higher than 48 points. In fact, the game that went over the total five years ago was a triple overtime game where the score was at 48 points at the end of regulation.

Generally, in a rivalry game you see the defenses pick up their level of play. The two teams know each other very well, so there are generally less big plays. I see that type of game here. Iowa State will want to run it a lot with Warren. New Coach Matt Campbell has been all about the running game in his career. I think it continues at Iowa State. 

The Iowa Hawkeyes always prefer to run the ball, and they always play at one the slowest tempos in all of the country. There should be some long drives that take a bunch of time off the clock here.

I will look for this one to stay in the 40's. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Georgia Southern Eagles have the best running game in the country. Matt Breida is one of the most underrated running backs in college football. He will put up some huge numbers this season. 

Georgia Southern ran for 489 yards last year against South Alabama. The Eagles scored 55 points in that game. They probably won't put up that kind of number here, but I do think they'll score a lot. South Alabama's big weakness is their rushing defense, and that is a very bad problem to have against this Georgia Southern offense. Ellison and Upshaw are tremendous QB's for the system, Breida is a great RB, and they have a very good offensive line.

South Alabama did find a much better quarterback this year in Davis. He has some mobility and a strong arm. Georgia Southern returns zero starters in the secondary, and I expect them to get beat deep quite a bit this year. The Eagles are playing a new defensive scheme, and it often takes time to get accustomed to these changes.

I see both teams putting up a solid amount of points here. Take the over. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Total of the Week* Navy's offense worked like a well-oiled machine with Keenan Reynolds at the helm. Reynolds graduated with all sorts of records at the school. Navy's offense was going to be down a good amount this year because they lost him, but now they took another big hit when new starting quarterback Tago Smith went down with a season-ending knee injury in week one. 

Will Worth now takes over the job and he is a step down from Smith and a huge step down from Reynolds. Navy is up against one of the best defenses they will play this year this weekend. The UConn Huskies have turned into a really good defense under Bob Diaco. Navy only put up 343 yards (they averaged 425) last year against UConn. The Huskies held Army's option attack to 265 yards and 9 first downs last year. This is a defense that appears ready for the triple option.

UConn's offense struggled to get going all season last year. They struggled badly against Maine (FCS) last weekend also. The Huskies have no clear identity on offense, and I don't see them scoring very many here.

A big key to this game is the tempo that both teams play at. Navy always ranks in the bottom ten in tempo, and UConn is in the slowest quarter of teams in the country. Expect a bunch of running and long drives that eat up the clock. 

Take the under big. TOP Total of the Week. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane played at the second fastest tempo of any team in the nation last year. Their goal is to play even faster this year. They have senior quarterback Dane Evans at the helm, and he knows this offense very well now. Keevan Lucas is back from an injury last year, and he is one of the most underrated receivers in the country. 

Ohio State decided to pick up the tempo on offense this year. Urban Meyer really likes JT Barrett in a fast paced system. The Buckeyes hung 77 points on Bowling Green last week. I'm certainly not going to suggest they'll score that this weekend, but Ohio State should put up a very big number in this contest. Tulsa's defense allowed about 40 points per game last year, and the Golden Hurricane won't face a team with more offensive talent than Ohio State. The Buckeyes have far too many weapons for Tulsa, and Ohio State scoring less than 55 here would surprise me. 

The Buckeyes defense is clearly down from a year ago, and the area where they are most down is likely in the secondary. Tulsa should be able to make some plays throughout this game. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish offense was tremendous last week. Especially when Kizer was at quarterback. Notre Dame should be able to do whatever they want against this Nevada defense. The Wolf Pack lost a bunch of guys from last year, and they will be totally outclassed.

Nevada is looking to push the tempo more this year, and that's a big reason for this selection. The Wolf Pack have a good ground game and a veteran quarterback. Notre Dame's defense is better than they showed last week against Texas, but they are down quite a bit from a year ago. 

I see Notre Dame giving up some points late here as they will likely rest the starters for next week's big matchup vs. Michigan State. If Notre Dame puts the 2nd stringers in on offense, I still think they keep scoring against this Nevada team. 

I expect a 45-21 type game here. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The BYU Cougars are completely changing up the way they play this year. BYU is going to go from a no huddle offense to an offense that huddles up after every play and uses pro style sets. Ty Detmer's offense is going to look to run the ball much more often and use the tight ends. Expect some long drives from the Cougars that use a lot of clock.

Arizona will continue to play fast, but I do think the BYU defense is plenty good enough to slow down Arizona better than most teams. This Cougars defense is better than it was a year ago, and Arizona has a bunch of question marks at wide receiver.

On defense, I expect Arizona to be better this year. Their new defensive coordinator comes from Boise State where he did a tremendous job. He will make the necessary adjustments to help Arizona slow down BYU here.

This game is totaled too high considering BYU's changes, so I'll grab the value on the under here. Take the under. 

*4 Star USC/Alabama Total DOMINATION* The Alabama Crimson Tide certainly lost a lot on defense, but I fully expect them to be one of the best defenses in the country again. Several key players actually turned down the NFL. Strong safety Eddie Jackson surprised in coming back, and I expect a huge season out of him. Reuben Foster is set to be a star at the linebacker spot. Alabama is always strong on the defensive front, and this year will be no different. 

Alabama's offense has a question mark at quarterback. I don't think they have anyone who will play as well as Coker did for them last year. The running backs are very talented here, but they are inexperienced. Alabama's offense plays at a slow pace, and I think they will slow things down a bit more for the new starter in game one.

USC has a new starting quarterback as well. Browne has talent, but he isn't likely to have a good game against this strong Crimson Tide defense. The Trojans have a strong offensive line, and I expect their game plan to be to try to run the ball early and often. Running the ball that often takes a lot of time off the clock. The Trojans may have limited success running it, but I don't see them running it well consistently against this defensive front. 

I think this total should have been 49 or 50, so I see plenty of value in this one. Take the under here. 

*4 Star CFB Under Radar Total* The North Texas Mean Green brought in Seth Littrell as their new head coach. They definitely needed something new after a really ugly season a year ago. Littrell wants to totally change the way the Mean Green play, and he has brought in Graham Harrell to run the offense here. Harrell was previously a quarterback in the Texas Tech system, and he is implementing the Air Raid offense at North Texas. Alec Morris is an Alabama transfer, and he'll run this offense this year.

North Texas allowed 41.3 points per game last year. They return 8 starters here, but is that really a good thing when they were this bad? The Mean Green look weak on every level again this season.

SMU Coach Chad Morris looked back at the tape last year and decided he simply didn't like the way SMU failed to push the tempo. He said they played it too cautious last year and things will be different in the year ahead. He said in the offseason, "We tried slowing down last year, and we didn't like it: it's not us." Morris wants the team to be blazing fast this season. How fast? He said, "If the official spotting the ball sets his feet before the ball snaps, we're going too slow." SMU will push the tempo this year.

The Mustangs have a very good quarterback in Matt Davis, and I expect big things from him this year. The receivers are much better this year, and SMU should score easily against North Texas.

SMU allowed a whopping 45.7 points per game last year, and that was before they pushed the tempo. The defense is more experienced, but there will be more possessions this year, and this stop unit is still terrible.

Look for a fast paced high scoring game. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Total Value Play* The Georgia Bulldogs are going to be all about the running game this year. Nick Chubb is expected to play here, and reports are that he has looked very good in practice. The Georgia offensive line is one of the best in the SEC once again this year, and they'll be able to run the football against most teams. 

North Carolina gave up 5.2 yards per carry last year and 5.1 yards per carry this year. The Tar Heels have had trouble stopping much lesser running attacks than this Georgia one, and I see them getting gashed here. 

North Carolina has one of the best offensive lines in the country. The Tar Heels lost Marquise Williams and many will expect their offense to be down, but I see this offense being excellent once again. Don't be surprised if they come close to last year's numbers (they averaged more than 40 points per game). The Tar Heels have a great running back in Elijah Hood, and running behind that experienced offensive front, he should have a huge season. Mitch Trubisky was great as a backup last year, and he knows Larry Fedora's system well. This will be the same high-octane offense we saw last year. 

With North Carolina pushing the tempo and Georgia breaking big runs on the ground, I see a back and forth game that goes over the posted total. Take the over here. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Arkansas Razorbacks defense returns a ton of talent, and I expect their numbers to be much more like what they were two years ago than last year. Arkansas loses a ton from their offensive line, and the Razorbacks don't have the depth at running back they have had in the past. They also have a new quarterback who will be much weaker than Brandon Allen.

Louisiana Tech has historically had one of the better defenses in their conference. They lost Jeff Driskel and Kenneth Dixon (their star QB and RB) from last year and this offense will be significantly weaker. Now, their projected starter has gotten in trouble with the law and won't start this game. 

The Arkansas offense always moves at a very slow tempo, and that should be the case again this year. Louisiana Tech will likely play slower on offense with Driskel gone as well, especially with a backfield that needs more reps.

This total is several points too high. Take the under big. TOP Rated Play. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UCLA Bruins will change it up and run a pro style offense this year. Josh Rosen and this offense are expected to play a little slower (they were 13th fastest in the nation in tempo last year. With Paul Perkins gone, the Bruins have less of a running game to lean on as well. Three UCLA offensive lineman from last year are gone. UCLA lost their top two receivers from a year ago. Rosen is good, but the pieces around him aren't as good this year. 

The Bruins defense should be better than a year ago. Eddie Vanderdoes is an excellent defensive tackle and he missed nearly the whole season last year. The same goes for cornerback Fabian Moreau, who should have a big season this year. UCLA returns nine starters and I expect their defensive numbers to be better.

Texas A&M picked up Trevor Knight to run their offense at QB. Knight isn't a guy that I trust just yet. He is learning a totally new offense, and he'll be up against a good defense. The Aggies primary weakness is their offensive line, and that's important here. 

John Chavis did a great job with this Texas A&M defense a year ago. The Aggies defense should be even better this year. Texas A&M's only question mark on defense is the linebacker spot. The d-line and the secondary both look strong. The Aggies allowed only 22.0 points per game and 380 yards per game last year. 

This number has risen to a point where I believe the under is a value. We'll take the under in this season opener. 

*3 Star Play Over* This number actually opened at 56 and has gone down to 51.5. It's pretty rare that I go against a line move like this, but there's too much value on the over for me to pass on this total. 

Western Michigan's offense is absolutely loaded this year. With Terrell at quarterback they can expect very solid play. Their running backs are better than most backs at the biggest schools in the country, and they have a star at wide receiver in Davis. The offensive front is pretty good as well.

Northwestern's defense was excellent last year. The Wildcats lost a lot up front though, and I see their defensive line being down quite a bit from last year. Western Michigan is going to be one of the better offenses Northwestern plays all year.

Northwestern's offense was very weak last year, but I expect far better production from them here. The Wildcats have a great back in Jackson, and he should have a lot of room to run against a weak Western Michigan front seven. The Broncos allowed 5.1 yards per carry last year. 

This should be a close game throughout, and overtime is certainly a possibility as well. I think a 31-28 type final score here should be expected. 

This number was set too low based on Northwestern being an under machine last year. Things change from year to year and Northwestern is a different team now.  In Western Michigan's last 16 games only 3 of them have gone below this total.

Take the over. 

*5 Star College Football Friday TOP Total* The Colorado Buffaloes offense averaged 24.5 points per game last year, but I expect that number to go up in the year ahead. Colorado brought in a new offensive coordinator from Texas Tech and he is expected to get this team playing at a quicker tempo. Sefo Liufau is healthy, and I see him being a pretty good fit for this offense. The Buffaloes have good depth at both RB and WR, so the tools are there for this offense to work well.

Colorado State lost their entire defensive line and their defensive coordinator from last year. I expect this Rams defense to be down several notches from last year. The Rams are going to give up tons of yards on the ground, and they'll have almost no pass rush. The secondary is a bit weaker, and their numbers should be much worse overall thanks to the very weak pass rush. 

In last year's game, Colorado State gained 500 yards but turned it over in scoring situations. Colorado State's offense also looks to play at a quicker tempo in the second year of Mike Bobo's system. 

Both teams should get a lot of possessions because of the quicker tempo, and 54 isn't a high total at all. I don't think the tempo changes are being accounted for by the oddsmakers in this total. Look for a close game where both quarterbacks play well.

Take the over big. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Louisville Cardinals offense will be much more dynamic this year. Lamar Jackson is the answer at quarterback, and I loved the way he closed out the year for the Cardinals last year. Louisville scored 34 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games last year. They return nine starters on offense this year, and I think this is the year things start to click for them.

Bobby Petrino's teams have usually had explosive offenses in the past. In his third year back, and now with the players to fit his system, there should be a big difference. In this particular game, it should be easy for Louisville to break all kinds of explosive plays (gains of 20 yards or more). Charlotte's defense will rank among the worst in the country this year. The 49ers defensive line is going to be totally overmatched here. 

Charlotte finished last year with the tenth fastest pace of play in the country last year. They are expected to push the tempo again this year. Why are they pushing the pace? I'm not really sure. It doesn't make much sense for a bad team to try to allow their opponent to get more possessions, but that is what they do. 

Charlotte's offense will definitely be better with Kevin Olsen at quarterback. He was very highly touted coming out of high school, and he is the younger brother of Panthers star Greg Olsen. 

The Cardinals defense is good, but they are less experienced than last year, and in a blowout they should give up some points. 

I look for Louisville to top 50 points here, and that makes me like the over. Take the over in this one. 

*Note- Trevone Boykin was suspended a few hours after I made this selection. I would NOT recommend the over now with him out of the game. This game would be a pass for me. Boykin means too much to that team.* 

*3 Star Sugar Bowl 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Oklahoma State Cowboys have a way of making just about every game high scoring. Oklahoma State ranks 95th in the nation in total defense. That's really bad when you consider there are only 128 teams and so many of them at the bottom are terrible teams.

The Cowboys are giving up 42.8 points per game in their last five games. Oklahoma State's defense will be tested by Mississippi's speed on the outside. The Rebels have a lot of big playmakers starting with Laquon Treadwell. I expect a bunch of explosive plays from Ole Miss here.

Oklahoma State's offense ranks eighth in the nation in passing yards. Ole Miss has been strong on the front seven this year, but their secondary is way down from a year ago. The Rebels have four guys injured or suspended on their defensive front, so they will be thin there.

Both teams play with a bunch of pace, so I expect a lot of possessions. 

The over is 6-0 in Oklahoma State's last 6 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. team with a winning record. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 on turf. A 15-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star Rose Bowl Red Hot CASH* The Stanford Cardinal and Iowa Hawkeyes meet in what should be a very physical game in the Rose Bowl on New Year's Day. Stanford's Christian McCaffrey finished second in the Heisman Trophy race, and he'll get the ball a bunch here. Stanford runs the ball a bunch, and they take their time between plays as well. Stanford's pace of play ranks at 122nd out of 128 teams in the country, so they definitely take a lot of time on their drives.

Iowa has played a much weaker schedule, but thus far this year Iowa has been very good against the run. The Hawkeyes defensive front is good. On offense, Iowa rarely creates big plays. This is a Hawkeyes team that runs the ball and methodically moves the ball down the field.

This is the type of game where I see both teams having long drives that take away 7 or 8 minutes at a time. If they are forced to settle for a field goal a few times on those, as I believe they will, then the under becomes a nice value play.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Notre Dame/Ohio State Total DOMINATION* The Ohio State Buckeyes offense didn't play up to expectations this year. First of all, the Buckeyes started the wrong quarterback for a very long time this year. Cardale Jones has a big arm, but he isn't the best fit for this system. J.T. Barrett gives the team a better runner and a more accurate passer. 

For the majority of the season, Ohio State couldn't pour on the points as expected, but they seem to have found something in their last game at Michigan. Ohio State played with much more uptempo looks and it helped them wear down the Wolverines defensive front. 

That's important here because Notre Dame's defense wasn't good against the run this year. Notre Dame gave up 4.52 yards per carry. Ezekiel Elliot and this Buckeyes ground game should have big day.

Notre Dame's offense has been underrated by many. I like their big play ability, and Ohio State hasn't faced teams with as many weapons as the Fighting Irish. The Buckeyes defense is very good, but with Notre Dame should break several big plays here.

The over is 6-0 in Notre Dame's last 6 following a loss. Take the over. 

*4 Star Michigan State/Bama MONEYMAKER* The Alabama Crimson Tide and Michigan State Spartans play a similar style of football. That should mean a lot of excitement in the Cotton Bowl on Thursday night, especially if you like hard hitting football. I expect both of the defenses to bring their best effort in this one.

Michigan State needs this game to be low scoring, and they are going to bleed the clock on offense as much as possible. Michigan State ranks in the bottom 15 in the nation in terms of tempo. Alabama is also slower than the average pace in college football. With both teams expected to run the ball a lot, that is important because it means the clock will be ticking throughout much of this game.

Michigan State's defense has been amazing in the past four games. They have allowed 12.5 points per game against some quality competition during that time. Included was their domination against the Ohio State Buckeyes offense that is very talented. Alabama will be able to move the ball here, but I don't think it will come easy, and I think they'll have to settle for some field goals.

Michigan State's offense has been really inconsistent this year, and this Alabama defense has been the best in the nation all year long. I don't think Michigan State will be able to score many in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Orange Bowl Bookie BASHER* The Clemson Tigers and Oklahoma Sooners both have explosive offenses. Clemson and Oklahoma both play very quickly as well. Clemson plays at the 29th quickest pace in the country and Oklahoma plays at the 40th quickest tempo (out of 128 teams). With these quick tempo teams on the field together, we should see a lot of snaps and plenty of opportunities for big plays.

Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield has been great in the air raid system. I don't think Perine gets enough credit for how good he is at running back though. Since Oklahoma started being more balanced with Perine touching the ball more often, this offense has been much better. Oklahoma has scored 44 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games. 

Clemson has scored 33 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games. The Tigers have the best player on the field in Deshaun Watson as well. The Clemson running game is solid, and I really like Jordan Leggett at tight end for Clemson.

The Clemson defense is giving up 27.17 points per game in their last six games. Oklahoma's defense has also given up a lot of big plays down the stretch. The offenses should have the upper hand.

The over is 20-8-1 in Oklahoma's last 29 games. The over is 7-2 in Clemson's last 9 games. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Holiday Bowl HEATER* The USC Trojans have transformed themselves into a team that primarily runs the football here late in the season. USC has slowed the tempo down as well. Early in the season they ranked in the top 20 in terms of tempo. Now, they are right in the middle of the pack at #61. 

Wisconsin is a team that runs the ball almost every play. They have to because Joel Stave is not a good quarterback. The Badgers running game has been much less productive this year than they have been in recent years.

With both teams running the ball constantly, the clock will be ticking throughout in this one. Both defenses are much better against the run than the pass. Wisconsin is only giving up 13.1 points per game on the year. I see a low scoring close game. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Saturday Night MONEY* The UCLA Bruins have a good young quarterback in Josh Rosen, and they go up against a Nebraska secondary that has struggled all year long. Nebraska ranks 122nd in the nation out of 128 teams against the pass. Look for Rosen to beat this secondary consistently with the pass. 

At the same time, Nebraska's offense has been very good down the stretch. The Cornhuskers have averaged 34 points per game in their last four contests. Armstrong and his receivers are getting more accustomed to Mike Riley's new offense. The Cornhuskers prefer to play quickly, and they like to use the no huddle package quite a bit. UCLA ranks as the 8th fastest paced team in the country as well.

UCLA's defense has been hit hard by the injury bug this year. Their two best players will miss this game. I see both offenses having a lot of scoring chances throughout. Take the over.  

*3 Star CFB Pinstripe Bowl Power Play* The Duke Blue Devils offense was up and down this year, but Duke plays at the ninth fastest tempo of anyone in the country. Indiana plays at the single fastest tempo of anyone in the country. There will be a bunch of snaps in this one, and the more snaps there are the more scoring opportunities come up. 

The Indiana defense is dreadful. How bad are they? Indiana's pass defense ranks dead last in the country. Opponents are throwing for more than 326 yards per game against them. Duke's passing game should look a lot better than usual against this Indiana defense. 

The Duke defense will be without star safety Jeremy Cash. Cash is the team's best defensive player, and he's a big loss. Indiana's offense is one of the most balanced in the country, and star running back Jordan Howard returning from an injury, Indiana is going to be even more dangerous. 

The over is 38-15-1 in Indiana's last 54 games. Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Sun Bowl SMASHER* This is a matchup of two very good quarterbacks. I'm high on both Brad Kaaya and Luke Falk. They play in different systems, but both guys have done a really nice job progressing over the course of their careers.

Miami's offense has been pretty good since their blowout loss to Clemson. The Hurricanes finished the season strong, and they have a speed advantage on the outside here. Washington State's secondary should have trouble staying with these wideouts. 

Washington State's offense has all sorts of playmakers at the wide receiver spots. Luke Falk is the perfect quarterback for Mike Leach's system. Falk spreads the ball around and doesn't lock in on any one guy. The Cougars always like to play quickly in the Leach offense, and that won't change here.

Washington State's defense has certainly improved this year, but I'm still not convinced they are good. Miami's defense will be without two starters who were suspended for this game. 

Both offenses have a lot of big play ability. Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Marshall Thundering Herd were a high powered offense in the past, but they aren't that anymore. Marshall took a huge step backward when Rakeem Cato graduated. Marshall ranks 64th in the nation in total offense. I think the perception is still out there that Marshall is a good offense because of what they did in the past, and that gives us value on the under.

UConn's defense has gotten so much better under Bob Diaco. The Huskies are giving up only 19.8 points per game. This is a unit that has been consistently very good all season long. Marshall's defense is only allowing 18.4 points per game. I think both offenses will have a difficult time getting things going in this one.

The under is 5-0 in UConn's last 5 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 non-conference games. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 after allowing less than 170 passing yards last game. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in Marshall's last 4 following a loss. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 following a loss by 20 points or more. A 31-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs and Arkansas State Red Wolves meet on Saturday night in New Orleans. Louisiana Tech has a really good offense with Jeff Driskel (Florida transfer) and Kenneth Dixon at quarterback and running back. Driskel was a disappointment at Florida, but he's been great at Louisiana Tech. Arkansas State's Fredi Knighten and Michael Gordon are a really nice quarterback and running back combination too. Both of these teams have big play ability on offense.

When you look at the schedules these two teams played, they didn't play very many dynamic offenses, and when they did, they gave up a bunch of points. Louisiana Tech just gave up 58 points against Southern Miss in their last game. Arkansas State allowed 31 points or more five times this year, and this will be the second most talented offense they have faced this year. Both offenses in this game prefer to play at a quick tempo.

The over is 5-0 in Arkansas State's last 5 games after gaining more than 450 yards last game. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 40 points or more last game. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 games after gaining 200 yards or more on the ground last game. A 16-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star BYU/Utah Total DOMINATION* The BYU Cougars and the Utah Utes absolutely hate each other. This is one of the meanest rivalries in college football today. Both teams should be plenty motivated here. We are going to see some very hard hitting action. 

Utah's offense is really banged up right now. The Utes are expected to be without star running back Devontae Booker here. Booker carries a massive load for this offense. He's averaged nearly 5 yards per carry in his career, and he is a workhorse. Britain Covey, Utah's best receiver and best kick returner is also doubtful for this one. That means there will be a lot more pressure on Travis Wilson. Wilson isn't a guy I trust very much, especially when he doesn't have enough weapons at the skill positions around him.

BYU's offense hasn't been able to run this year, and Utah presents a major challenge for the Cougars offense. Utah has a tremendous pass rush and the Utes also have a very good secondary. 

I see both offenses struggling in a close game throughout. Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB Bowl Season Kickoff CASH* The New Mexico Lobos have the home field advantage in this one, but they are at a significant talent disadvantage. Rather than get involved on the side in this game, I'm going with the over. New Mexico and Arizona are two rushing attacks that both make a bunch of explosive plays. I think we'll see a lot of long runs in this game.

Arizona ranks 4th in the nation in pace of play. The Wildcats are going to look to get off as many plays as they can quickly, and that's obviously very helpful for an over. New Mexico's defense has improved quite a bit this year, but they haven't faced many offenses with the type of talent Arizona has.

Arizona's defense is giving up 4.42 yards per carry this year. The Wildcats haven't allowed less than 30 points in a single game in their last six contests. They allowed 45 points or more five times this year.

The over is 4-0 in Arizona's last 4 after allowing 450 yards or more last game. The over is 4-0 in Arizona's last 4 non-conference games. The over is 7-1 in Arizona's last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. A 15-1 angle. Take the over.  

*5 Star Army/Navy TOP Play SMASHER* The Army Cadets and the Navy Midshipmen renew their tremendous rivalry this Saturday. This one will be played at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. The Navy Midshipmen had a great season in their first year in the American Athletic Conference. Army has struggled once again to a 2-9 record. 

Navy and Army have a long history of playing low scoring games against each other. It really makes a lot of sense. The single biggest advantage of running a triple option offense is that opposing defenses typically aren't accustomed to seeing it. That obviously isn't the case when these two teams play each other. The defenses work against triple option attacks every single day in practice.

Earlier this year, both of these teams played Air Force and both teams saw their games go under against Air Force. Army's game with Air Force was particularly telling. It was a 20-3 game that never got even close to the posted total. While Army's defense was bad overall this year, they did well against Air Force.

In the past nine years, there hasn't been a single game between these two finish with a higher total than 48 points.

The under is 9-0 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams. The under is 10-1 in Army's last 11 games in December. The under is 10-1 in Navy's last 11 games in December. The under is 5-0 in Navy's last 5 neutral site games. The under is 6-1 in Navy's last 7 on grass. A 40-3 angle. Take the under big.  This line is dropping through the week. I would play this for a top rated play down to 49 points. *TOP Rated Play*

*4 Star Pac 12 Title MONEY Total* The Stanford Cardinal and USC Trojans meet in the Pac 12 title game this Saturday night. USC's defense has been a big disappointment this year. USC ranks number 70 in the nation in total defense this year. They are giving up 400 yards per game. USC gave up more than 40 points three times this year, including their first meeting this year with Stanford.

Stanford's defense isn't very good either. They are 50th in the nation in total defense. Stanford has allowed more than 30 points four times this year. USC has an improved running game since their first meeting with Stanford, and I think their improved balance as an offense will help them find success against Stanford's mediocre defense.

Christian McCaffrey is one of the best game breakers in the nation, and USC gives up a bunch of big plays. Kevin Hogan is a winner who makes big plays when needed. USC has plenty of offensive playmakers. The over is 14-6 in the last 20 meetings between these two teams. Take the over.