*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas Jayhawks have turned up the tempo in a big way. In the middle of the year, they decided to change the way this offense was run. Their last four games have all finished with at least 65 points total. Kansas' offense is much improved compared to a year ago. I'm really impressed with the job Les Miles has done thus far.

Kansas State is coming off that stunning win over Oklahoma. The Wildcats are thought of as a defensive team, but this defense hasn't been very good. Kansas State ranks 110th in the country in yards per play allowed. They have been very fortunate to not give up more points. This defense is a regression candidate.

I think this total has been bet down because recent games between these two have been so low. These are different teams.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The under is a whopping 33-9-1 in service academy matchups since 2005. It makes a lot of sense. These teams generally benefit on offense from the fact that the opposing defense isn't accustomed to seeing the triple option. That benefit isn't there when you are playing against another service academy. 

Additionally, these teams badly want to win matchups against each other. In games with this kind of high level of motivation, it tends to lead to lower scoring games.

Both teams play at such a slow pace that even if they move the ball down the field it should take a very long time. Even long drives with field goals are big positives for the under.

Air Force has been throwing the ball a little more this year, but they are expected to have the lead and with a lead they are good at running the ball and using up the clock.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* UMass is the worst defense in the country, and it isn't close. The Minutemen are allowing a whopping 7.71 yards per play this year. UMass has allowed 55 plays of 20 yards or more. They are equally bad against the run and the pass.

Liberty's offense is due for some positive regression. They rank 28th in the nation in yards per play, but they are 60th in the nation in points per game. The Flames get a great chance to put up a big number here.

The Liberty defense is allowing 6.12 yards per play. Liberty has had some red zone luck on defense or their opponents would have scored more. 

UMass surprisingly pushes the pace. The Minutemen rank 7th in the nation in tempo. Hugh Freeze wants his Liberty team to play fast as well. 

This number is several points too low.

Take the over.  

*3 Star Play Over* The Utah State Aggies are playing at the single fastest pace of any team in the country so far this year. Jordan Love and the Aggies offense haven't been quite as efficient as one would have expected, but I expect Love and the passing game to improve the rest of the year. 

Air Force has multiple quarterbacks who know the system well and who can run the triple option and have success. The Falcons have scored 38 and 32 points on Utah State the last two years. They have allowed 38 and 42 points in those games. This is a series where there have been a bunch of points.

The Air Force offense is much better this year than they have been in recent seasons. Air Force's defense has been weak against the pass this year. Love should have success against them. With the pace that this game will be played at this isn't a high total. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather forecast here calls for sustained winds of 15-18 mph with gusts of 25 mph. There is heavy rain expected as well. 

Michigan's defense is a top ten defense in the country. Notre Dame really hasn't faced many really good defenses this year. Ian Book is a question mark to me when he goes against good defenses.

Notre Dame's defense showed me a lot in their close loss to Georgia. This is a Fighting Irish defense that has allowed only 16 plays of 20 yards or more all year (5th best in the nation).

The weather here is significant enough that we should expect the two defenses to have the upper hand in this big game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Kentucky has played five games in the SEC. Only one of those games has gone over this total, and that game should have stayed under this number as well. It was their 29-21 loss to Florida. The Gators ran for a 76 yard touchdown with 30 seconds while they were leading 22-21. Kentucky's games since then have finished at 41, 31, 44, and 24 points. 

The Wildcats are averaging only 13 points per game in SEC play. They are without their starting quarterback, and it has definitely limited them on offense. Kentucky is playing the second best defense they have faced thus far in this game. Missouri ranks 6th in the nation in yards per play allowed. The Tigers excel at not giving up big plays, and I don't think Kentucky will be able to consistently move down the field on Missouri.

The Tigers offense has been extremely inconsistent. They lack big playmakers on the outside, and the Tigers will be tested by a Kentucky defense that is improving as the season moves along. 

The weather forecast calls for heavy rain and winds of 15 mph in this one. That will make both offenses more conservative than normal. That is clearly a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* MTSU is 50th in the nation in yards per play offensively. They are 106th in the nation in points per game. MTSU is playing at the fastest pace of any team in Conference USA in its conference games so far this year. The Blue Raiders should be more efficient over time. They have only 10 touchdowns in the red zone in 19 trips into the red zone this year. That should regress toward the mean. MTSU has been able to move the ball this year.

FIU started the season off slowly on offense, but they are averaging 6.38 yards per play in CUSA thus far. They have played at the 4th fastest pace of any team in league play this year. 

FIU's defense ranks 68th in yards per play allowed. MTSU ranks 118th in the nation in yards per play allowed. These two defenses have shown plenty of vulnerability.

This is a low total with two teams playing quickly and two offenses capable of scoring in bunches.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* North Texas likes to throw the football a lot, and I can't blame them since they have a star quarterback in Mason Fine. Charlotte's defense has been mediocre against the run, but they are terrible against the pass. The 49ers defense is 124th in QBR allowed, so they have been getting torched through the air. North Texas ranks 35th in the nation (2nd fastest in CUSA) in tempo as well.

Charlotte doesn't play fast, but they have hit a bunch of big gainers this year, especially in their running game. The 49ers already have 21 plays of 30 yards or more on the season. What's the weakness of the North Texas defense? Stopping the run. The Mean Green are allowing 4.77 yards per carry on the season.

I see a back and forth type of game as both teams put up a lot of points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Louisville Cardinals have a good offense this year, but they haven't faced many good defenses. They were shut down by a really good defense (Clemson) last week. Louisville has piled up huge offensive numbers against teams like Eastern Kentucky, Boston College, and Wake Forest. Virginia ranks 8th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Virginia's offense ranks 122nd in tempo. The Cavs look to slow down the game. Virginia averages only 3.33 yards per carry, so they rely on the passing game quite a bit. 

The weather forecast here calls for upper 60's and 20 mph sustained winds with 1-2 inches of rain in the afternoon. This is enough to push me onto the under in this game. Look for a lot of running the ball and moving clock.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan State defense is better than their overall statistics look so far this year. Michigan State has played a really tough slate of offenses so far this year. The Spartans took on Ohio State and Wisconsin in their last two games. Both of those offenses skewed the Michigan State defensive numbers. Michigan State's defense ranks 8th best in the nation when adjusted for strength of schedule faced.

Penn State ranks first in the nation in yards per carry allowed. The Nittany Lions front seven should be in the Michigan State backfield early and often here. Michigan State ranks 97th in the country in yards per play on offense. The Spartans have yet to show they can do much of anything on offense against quality defenses. Penn State's defense is very good.

The weather here is another plus for the under. A low 50's temperature with 15-20 mph winds and rain that picks up as the game goes on is in the forecast.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Wyoming Cowboys play at the 110th fastest pace in the country (130 teams). Wyoming runs the ball consistently. The Cowboys have run the football on 76.6% of their offensive plays in conference games. They have very little passing attack, so the successful drives their offense has often take a very long time with a moving clock and small gains little by little.

Nevada plays at a slightly slower than average tempo. The Wolf Pack offense ranks 112th in the nation in yards per play. They haven't been able to find much to get them going offensively.

The early weather forecast calls for heavy winds in Laramie the whole week. Heavy wind played a big role in last week's game against New Mexico, and with winds things are likely to get even more conservative than normal for both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles have a new offensive coordinator this year, and this team is much improved on the offensive end. Southern Miss is 15th in the nation in yards per play. The Golden Eagles put up 30 points against a quality LA Tech defense last week. They scored 47 points on Troy earlier this year. Their offensive numbers are pulled down a bit by being held in check by Alabama and Mississippi State, which is to be expected. This is a good Southern Miss offense.

Rice can stop the run pretty well, but the Owls aren't any good in the secondary. They rank 122nd in yards allowed per pass attempt. Southern Miss should be able to take advantage.

Southern Miss had a great defense last year, but this year they have a subpar defense. Southern Miss is 122nd in the nation in yards per play allowed, and they are 129th in the nation in yards allowed per pass attempt.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines are playing faster this year, but they aren't playing efficiently at all on offense. Michigan is 81st in the nation in yards per play. They are up against a Penn State defense that has been tremendous this season. The Nittany Lions rank 3rd in the nation in yards per play allowed. I think Michigan will have a hard time putting together sustained drives against this Penn State defense. The Nittany Lions have a big advantage with their defensive front against the Michigan offensive line.

Penn State's offense hasn't been consistent this year. The Nittany Lions have hit quite a few big plays, but they haven't shown the ability to put together long drives against good defenses. Michigan typically does a good job not giving up big plays, and this will present a challenge for Penn State.

Both teams run the ball a little more than the average team, so we'll see a lot of moving clock. I think this is a game where points will be at a premium. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Western Michigan is second in the nation in explosive plays of 20 yards or more. The Broncos have struggled in the red zone though, and this is a team that is due for some positive regression when it comes to points per game. Western Michigan's offense is elite, and they aren't playing against even decent defenses in the MAC.

Eastern Michigan has been even worse in the red zone than the Broncos. The Eagles also should have some positive regression on the way. The Eagles are throwing the ball around a lot more this year and Western Michigan's defense has allowed a whopping 108 plays of 10 yards or more already this year.

Both teams should have a lot of offensive success here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Washington State Cougars defense has been awful this year. Washington State is allowing 6.65 ypp on the year. Colorado's defense has been even worse. The Buffaloes are giving up 6.87 ypp. These two have been even worse on defense in Pac 12 play. Washington State is allowing more than 8 yards per play in the conference. 

Both teams like to throw the ball a lot and there should be a lot of possessions in this contest. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Utes have the slowest tempo of any team in the nation. Utah ranks 130th out of 130 in pace of play. Utah also likes to run the football early and often. Almost 65% of Utah's offensive plays are running plays. 

Arizona State's defense has been beaten badly in the passing game this year, but they have been good against the run. They haven't played a running attack as good as Utah, so they will give up some yards here. Still, Utah will be taking a lot of time off the clock and if they get held to some field goals it is a big boost for the under.

Arizona State ranks 102nd in yards per carry this year, and Utah's defense ranks the best against the run of any defense they have faced. Michigan State also excels at stopping the run, and they shut down Arizona State's offense.

Neither passing game is very good to begin with, and the weather is a key factor here too. Rain is likely later in this game, and it is expected to be windy throughout the entire game.

With both teams playing slowly and running a lot, I think this one stays low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats have had a really hard time moving the ball against quality defenses this year. Kentucky is up against a great defense here in Athens. 

Georgia's offense is very good, but they do play at a slow pace and run the football a lot. That means that while they usually move the football a lot, they take a lot of time off the clock as well.

Kentucky plays at the 95th ranked tempo out of 130 teams in the nation. Georgia ranks 113th in tempo. Both of these teams prefer to run the ball when they can.

A tropical storm is expected to bring heavy rain to Athens earlier in the day on Saturday. The rain might stop before the game or it may be light rain here, but there will still be winds of 15 or 16 mph during this game. Additionally, this is a grass field and with rains of over an inch expected during the day on Saturday- the field might not be in very good shape. The weather is a plus for the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Vanderbilt Commodores are just an awful team this year. Their star running back (Vaughn) is dinged up and is listed as questionable for this game. Vanderbilt has a quarterback controversy. Neither of the quarterbacks are good. 

Missouri is a quality team this year. The Tigers are led by a defense that is 6th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Missouri is excellent in pass coverage, and they are above average against the run. The Tigers offense is a run heavy offense.

Missouri is very likely to be in control of this game. We have some interesting references of spots where Missouri has a large lead. The Tigers have taken their foot off the gas and had low scoring second halves multiple times.

-Missouri led Troy 42-7 at halftime and the final score was 42-10.

-Missouri led West Virginia 31-0 at halftime and the final score was 38-7

-Missouri led SE Missouri State 37-0 at halftime and the final score was 50-0

Consistently they have had very low scoring 3rd and 4th quarters in games where they lead.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers put up 40 points last week with backup quarterback Jack Plummer at the helm and Rondale Moore out of the lineup. That was against a weak Maryland defense though. Purdue couldn't do anything against Penn State's defense, and I'll be surprised if they have much success here against a good Iowa defense.

Moore is one of the most electrifying players in the country, and him being out is a huge loss for Purdue. The Boilermakers rank 129th out of 130 in the country in yards per carry, so they don't have a running game to lean on. Iowa is 16th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Iowa's offense has some potential, but they play a pretty conservative brand of football. The Hawkeyes play at a slow pace and there shouldn't be too many possessions in this game as they grind things down when they are in the lead.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Syracuse offense is a mess this year. Tommy DeVito hasn't been nearly as good as expected in this offense, and now he is trying to play through an injury. DeVito plays behind one of the worst offensive lines in the nation as well. Not a great combination when you are trying to play through an injury and avoid getting hit. Syracuse has allowed 26 sacks in only six games. 

The Pitt Panthers defense ranks second in the nation with 27 sacks so far this year. They are going to bring a ton of pressure on DeVito in this one, and I think the Syracuse offense will likely struggle with the Pitt defensive line.

The Pitt Panthers offense ranks 108th in yards per play this year. Kenny Pickett just hasn't looked like he is in a rhythm in the passing game. Pitt has been throwing it more this year, but the strength of this Syracuse defense is their secondary. 

Take the under in this one. 

*Note- I would play for this for 4 stars down to 51.5 and for a 3 star rating down to 50*

*4 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves love to play fast. Arkansas State ranks 19th fastest out of 130 teams in the country in pace of play. Arkansas State has also averaged a whopping 7.77 yards per play in their two Sun Belt contests thus far.

Arkansas State's defense is awful though, and they are going to give up a lot here. The Red Wolves allowed a ridiculous 722 total yards against Georgia State. They also gave up 28 points and more than 500 yards against FCS level SIU. This is a really weak defense.

Louisiana's offense didn't look good against Appalachian State, but they have arguably the best defense in the Sun Belt. The Ragin' Cajuns scored a 47-43 win over Arkansas State last season.

Louisiana ranks 8th in the nation in yards per play on the season as a whole. These two offenses should have a lot of success.

Take the over. 

*5 Star Top Play Under* The Wyoming offense isn't any good at all. They were able to run all over the UNLV defense a couple weeks ago, but I'm not going to let that make me think their offensive woes are fixed. Wyoming can't throw the ball, and San Diego State will just key in on the run here and force Chambers to beat them through the air. I don't think he can do it.

Ryan Agnew has been really bad at quarterback for San Diego State this year. San Diego State is 126th in offensive yards per play this year. They scored a whopping 6 points against Weber State and only 24 points against an awful Colorado State defense. 

San Diego State's games this year have finished with final totals of: 6 points, 37 points, 41 points, 40 points, and 44 points. Two of Wyoming's games have finished at 37 points.

Take the under. TOP Rated play. 

*3 Star Play Under* Notre Dame's offensive statistics are skewed so far this year. Notre Dame has piled up big offensive numbers against a couple terrible defenses. Against the decent or better defenses they have faced, Ian Book and company just haven't been that good. USC isn't a great defense, but they are a lot better than some of the other units Notre Dame has played against.

USC is reliant on the passing game, and the Notre Dame secondary is excellent. Slovis is expected back for USC here, but I expect USC's passing attack to be less effective than normal because of the defense they are facing and the weather.

The weather here calls for 15 mph sustained winds with gusts of 25 mph through the game. This is a clear positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Charlotte's offense has really impressed this year. Their coaching staff is doing a tremendous job turning this team that was previously hapless on offense into a very good offensive squad. The 49ers are averaging 6.54 yards per play (26th in the country). Charlotte has been breaking big runs consistently. That's important here because the FIU front seven has been really weak against the run. Look for Charlotte's ground game to do damage here.

FIU's offense is finally starting to come around. They were an underachiever early in the year, but this offense has a lot of talent. Charlotte is way too reliant on their aggressive pass rush. FIU's offensive line grades out as above average, and I think FIU can burn Charlotte for being too aggressive on defense in this matchup.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles are a completely different team than they were a year ago. Southern Miss is now weak on defense, and they are much improved on offense in their new scheme.

North Texas has an elite quarterback in Mason Fine, and he is up against a weak Southern Miss secondary. Look at the numbers Troy's passing game put up against Southern Miss. This looks like a great spot for North Texas to pick up their production on offense.

I had this game projected at 63 points, so I'm glad to grab this one at 58.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* MTSU's defense has been shredded all season long. Marshall may have only scored 13 points last week, but the Thundering Herd put up 578 yards of offense. MTSU's defense hasn't shown me anything that would make me confident at all about their ability to slow down Florida Atlantic here. MTSU is 120th in the nation in yards per play allowed. 

Florida Atlantic's offense started the year struggling against good competition, but the Owls offense has been great in their last three games. Lane Kiffin's team should put up a lot of big plays here.

MTSU has been good on offense. The Blue Raiders passing attack should have a big edge on the FAU secondary which has been a clear weakness.

Both of these defenses have been fortunate in the red zone. They have been getting away with forcing teams to kick field goals or turning them over in the red zone. I expect defensive regression in points per game allowed for both teams.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* For the last couple weeks, Clemson has heard a lot about how they aren't as good as they were expected to be. Dabo Swinney mentioned that he is getting tired of hearing it. The Clemson offense has been a bit of a disappointment. Here is a great chance for them to get back on track.

Florida State plays at the 4th fastest tempo in the country, and Clemson has played quickly this year as well. The Seminoles defense has allowed a lot of big plays in the passing game, and I think Trevor Lawrence and company are in for a big day.

I see Clemson putting up a big number here and Florida State doing enough.

Take the over. 

*5 Star Top Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans defense looked dominant in the first quarter last weekend against Ohio State. Ohio State ended up looking great offensively in the second quarter before struggling again in the second half. That was a weird game, but Michigan State did show they have a lot of talent on the front seven defensively.

Wisconsin is a really good team, but they don't have the offensive balance Ohio State has. Wisconsin is going to run the ball over and over. Wisconsin's Jack Coan doesn't impress me in the passing game. The Badgers will lean heavily on the running game and use up a bunch of clock. Michigan State will give up some yards here to a great Wisconsin running game, but I do think they'll hold their own.

The Michigan State offense is really weak. Wisconsin is first in the nation in yards per play allowed so far this year. The Spartans don't have an explosive offense at all, and I don't think they'll be able to consistently put together long drives against Wisconsin.

The weather forecast here calls for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts of 30 to 35 mph during the game. This is a clear positive for the under.

Take the under. TOP Rated Play. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Mississippi State Bulldogs aren't even close to what they were a year ago on defense. I think the market has been slow to adjust to their defensive weaknesses. Mississippi State was a top five defense in the country last year. They rank 104th in the nation in yards per play this year. The Bulldogs have allowed 31 plays of 20 yards or more. 

Tennessee isn't a good offense, but I think Maurer gives them a better chance at quarterback than Guarantano. The Volunteers have turned it over too much this year, and if they can hold onto the ball a little better, I think they can score against teams like Mississippi State.

Mississippi State's offense should improve the rest of the way. The Bulldogs have enough weapons to be putting up better numbers than they have thus far. 

Both teams should put up a decent number of points in this one.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* This is a rivalry game in northwest Ohio. The weather calls for sustained winds of 16 mph and gusts to 28 mph during this game. That is plenty to change the game. Neither of these offenses are as explosive as they have been in the past. 

The Bowling Green offense ranks 125th in the nation in yards per play. Toledo is much better offensively, but they have shown that they are willing to slow down the game a lot once they have a lead. They should have a lead here throughout.

This is a very high total for a high wind game. These windy unders have treated me well in the past, and I'll back the under again here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Applachian State Mountaineers take on the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns in one of the best midweek games we have had in a small conference in quite some time.

This game means everything to both teams. These are two of the top three teams in the Sun Belt. 

There's no doubt both teams have been scoring machines so far this year, so you can understand a high total here. Still, this is an extremely high total for a game between two teams who run the ball often and don't play at a fast pace.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon Ducks defense ranks 4th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Oregon is far better defensively than most people realize. Cal wasn't good on offense with Garbers at quarterback, and they are even worse on offense with Modster under center. I would expect Cal to have very little success on offense in this matchup.

The Cal defense is a strong one. They rank 36th in the nation in yards per play allowed, and that is despite the fact that they have played some good offenses this year. Cal's defense is a top 25 or top 30 unit in the country. 

Oregon plays on Friday this coming week, and the Ducks may be happy to slow things down with a big lead in the second half here.

I see Cal having a hard time getting past 10 points or so here. A hard fought game between two good defenses.

Take the under. 

 *4 Star Play* Ole Miss' offense has been impressive in recent weeks. The Rebels already have a whopping 33 plays of 20 yards or more so this has been a really explosive offense. They also rank 10th in the nation in tempo. Ole Miss will continue to push the tempo here, and I don't see this weak Vanderbilt defense doing a good slowing them down. Vanderbilt has allowed 34 plays of 20 yards or more this season.

Vanderbilt's offensive numbers don't look very good so far this year, but they have played some excellent defenses. The Commodores offense should be good enough to put up a decent number against a weak Ole Miss defense here.

I had this number in the mid 60's. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Rice Owls have done a good job staying in games by running the football consistently and using up the play clock. Rice is much better defensively than they were a year ago as well. The coaching staff knows they don't have much of a chance at all in high scoring games, and they are doing a nice job dictating the tempo. 

UAB's offense is way down from the last couple years. The offensive line went from a strength to a weakness. The Blazers still have a very strong defense, and Bill Clark is a defensive minded coach as well.

Expect a lot of running plays and a slow tempo.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* When these two teams get together, I like to look for the under. Both of these offenses usually have the upper hand against a normal opponent because that opponent isn't accustomed to facing the triple option. That isn't the case when they play each other though. 

Both of these defenses see almost exactly the same offense they will face in this game every day in practice. That gives the defense a strong advantage.

Also, both of these teams run the ball at such a high rate and play at a slow tempo. We should see some drives that take a ton of time off the game clock. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders offense has really impressed me so far this year. MTSU ranks 45th in the nation in yards per play despite facing Michigan, Iowa, and Duke in three of their four games thus far. They are airing it out eraly and often, and Marshall's secondary has been really weak so far this year. 

Marshall has been doing damage on the ground this season. Marshall ranks 17th in the nation in yards per carry. MTSU ranks 122nd in yards per carry allowed. The Thundering Herd have multiple running options in the backfield at all times, and I would expect some big plays from them here. 

Both teams prefer to play at a pretty brisk pace normally, and I think there will be enough possessions here.

The hot temperature (90 degrees) is helpful too- overs have done well in hot weather games in the past.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* I view both of these teams as having clearly better defenses than offenses. Iowa State has had some unfortunate bounces and they have had poor luck on red zone defense. The Cyclones are 23rd in the nation in yards per play allowed though, and they have played some solid offenses. TCU ranks 9th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Gary Patterson's team is almost always well prepared defensively. 

There is bad weather in the forecast here, which is clearly another positive. With wind and rain that should make both of these offenses even more conservative and predictable. 

Look for a close low scoring battle here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The forecast in Laramie calls for 20-25 mph sustained winds with gusts to 40 mph during this game. That kind of wind is enough to make a huge difference in a game. 

Wyoming and UNLV are already fairly predictable offensively. These are two bottom five passing offenses in the nation. The passing game will be even less of an option with this weather. Expect both teams to load up the box and dare their opposition to try to throw it over them.

UNLV plays at a moderate pace, and Wyoming plays very slowly. UNLV does have a lot of potential in the running game normally, but Wyoming is 13th in the nation in ypc allowed. Wyoming's running attack will move the ball here, but it should take a lot of time off the clock. Field goals will definitely be difficult in this weather as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The pace between these two should be especially quick. Arkansas State has a backup quarterback here or this would have been a bigger play for me. I still think the Red Wolves can have enough offensive success here though.

Troy has been excellent on offense thus far this year, and I think they can take advantage of a weak Arkansas State secondary. Troy has big play ability and they have a veteran signal caller.

Both defenses have given up a bunch of explosive this year. Look for a quick pace with plenty of big plays to get us to a relatively low total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Huskies are typically a pretty conservative team under Chris Petersen. Petersen is a great coach, and he should have his team ready for this game. Clay Helton isn't a good coach. USC has a lot of talent, but it's hard to say how prepared they will be here.

USC starts quarterback Matt Fink here. Fink had good numbers last week against Utah, but he threw a lot of jump balls that ended up working out. Washington's secondary is definitely better than the Utah secondary though, and I'm not confident Fink will look as good here.

Washington should have the lead here, and they play at a slow tempo. They will run it more often late in the game if they are in the lead.

Also important to note is the weather. The forecast calls for a 50% chance of showers during this game in the pacific northwest. There will be 11 mph winds and gusts to 22 mph. That is definitely a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Ball State Cardinals offense looks different this year with Drew Plitt at quarterback. Ball State is airing it out far more often than they did in recent seasons. Plitt has thrown 11 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions so far this year. He is completing a whopping 70.6% of his passes. 

Ball State ranks 10th in the nation in tempo. They will try to play as quickly as possible here. They are also likely to be behind, which should make them play even quicker and be even more pass heavy. The Cardinals offense has been much better than most expected this season.

NC State has gotten decent production from their offense this year, and Ball State's defense is very weak. Ball State has very little pass rush, and I think they'll give up quite a few big plays here.

While NC State's defense is good, they are much better against the run than the pass. This secondary isn't great and I think Ball State can score enough to get over this reasonable total.

Take the over. 

*5 Star Top Play Over* Texas State ranks 19th in tempo so far this year. Georgia State ranks 24th in the nation in tempo. Two top 25 teams in pace of play should mean a lot of possessions here. 

Georgia State ranks 129th out of 130 teams in the country in yards per play allowed. Texas State ranks 119th in yards per play allowed. These two defenses have been terrible. 

Texas State is allowing nearly 6 yards per play, and Georgia State is going to run it early and often here. They should be able to expose the weakness of the Texas State run defense here.

Texas State's new OC Bob Stitt wants them to air it out early and often. How much are they throwing it? Texas State has thrown the football on a whopping 68% of their offensive plays so far this year. If it weren't for some terrible turnovers in plus territory, Texas State's offense would have scored a lot more points so far this year.

Plenty of tempo from both teams and two very weak offenses. 

Take the over. 5 Star TOP Play. 

*4 Star Play Under* UAB has typically been a good rushing offense, but the Blazers are averaging only 3.24 ypc yards per carry so far this year. That's bad to start with, but when you consider they have played Alabama State and Akron that is especially bad.

UAB does still have a very solid defense. Though they have played two bad teams, they have allowed only 20 plays of 10 yards or more and 7 plays of 20 yards or more. 

South Alabama has improved defensively from a year ago. This is a team that is being coached to try to avoid giving up the big play this year. UAB moves slowly so even when they score it is likely to take quite a bit of time.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Western Michigan Broncos have a really strong offense. Western Michigan has very nice balance. They rank 9th in the nation in yards per play. The Broncos have 22 plays of 20 yards or more already this season. The Syracuse defense has been a disappointment. The Orange have allowed a whopping 48 plays of 10 yards or more already this season.

Syracuse's offense hasn't looked good so far this year. They have played a pretty tough schedule though, and Western Michigan's defense is very weak. Remember, Western Michigan's defense made Michigan State's very weak offense look great just a couple weeks ago.

Syracuse will push the pace, and their offense should look a lot better here. Western Michigan's offense should be able to move the ball a lot as well.

Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* Texas State’s new offensive scheme is a good one. They couldn’t get anything going against Texas A&M, but they moved the ball easily against Wyoming. Texas State’s turnovers and missed FG’s make it look like their offense wasn’t that good. The score doesn’t reflect how well their offense played. They also played much faster than they did in week one. Bob Stitt’s system is being implemented.

SMU looks much better offensively with a good quarterback to run Sonny Dykes’ system. They have put up 37 and 49 points in their first two contests. Take the over.

*5 Star TOP Play Under*

Both of these teams always circle this game. It’s an important rivalry game for these two schools. These rivalry games make me lean to the under to start with, and in the recent games against each other the under has had value.

Ohio has decided to slow the tempo down drastically. They rank as the 9th slowest team in the nation pace wise. Marshall is also slightly slower than an average team in tempo.

This is too high of a number. Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* The Troy Trojans offense will likely throw the ball a lot this year with a veteran quarterback and a good group of wide receivers. 

Southern Miss had an elite defense last year, but they lost a ton of players from that unit. The Golden Eagles aren't bad defensively, but they aren't close to last year's level.

Southern Miss is playing quicker and they are going to take more shots downfield in their new offensive scheme. Look for them to be able to get some big gainers on a Troy secondary that is questionable.

This total is a few points too low. 

The over is 40-17 in Troy's last 57 non-conference games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UMass Minutemen defense is atrocious. They allowed 48 points against a terrible Rutgers offense in week one. They then gave up 45 points to Southern Illinois (a subpar FCS team) in week two. I’ve been really impressed with the Charlotte offense under their new head coach. They rolled up more than 500 yards of offense against Appalachian State last week. 

UMass has allowed a ridiculous 33 plays of 10 yards or more in just two games. Charlotte has been explosive on offense already this year. They have 34 plays of 10 yards or more offensively in two games. 

Both of these teams rank in the bottom 25 of the country in total defense. UMass should score enough here, and Charlotte is likely to put up a big number. 

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Under* Iowa/Iowa State under- Brock Purdy is a good quarterback for Iowa State, but he lacks weapons around him. Iowa State’s front seven on defense is amazing. Iowa always plays slowly and has a fairly cautious game plan. The Hawkeyes once again have a very good defense. This is a rivalry game where points are at a premium normally. I don’t see that being any different this season. Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* Graham Harrell’s offense looked great last weekend in USC’s win over Stanford. Slovis is a nice fit at quarterback, and he has some extremely talented receivers around him. USC is playing very quickly as well. This USC defense is way down from where it was a few years ago. USC ranks 78th in YPP allowed so far this year, and they haven’t even played great offenses. BYU’s offense should be improved with Wilson at the helm.

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The last three games between Miami (Ohio) and Cincinnati have finished with a total of 47, 38, and 21 points. Last year's game was played in poor weather, so that one should be discounted at least somewhat. Still, this has been a low scoring series for quite some time. The under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two.

This is a game that means a lot to both teams. Miami Ohio is in Oxford, which is only about 50 minutes from Cincinnati. Cincinnati has been winning in this series consistently, but there have been a bunch of close low scoring games.

Cincinnati's defense looked bad last week against Ohio State, but the Bearcats defense was excellent last year, and they certainly aren't playing an offense similar in any fashion to Ohio State here in the Miami Ohio Redhawks. 

Miami only ran for 2.4 ypc against Iowa in week one. The Redhawks totaled only 245 yards. In fact, Miami only had 349 yards against Tennessee Tech last weekend. There are a lot of questions about this Miami offense. They are young at quarterback, and he isn't surrounded by very much talent. 

Cincinnati's offense was due for some regression after their amazing success on 3rd down and long last year. The Bearcats are good on offense, but Miami's defense is the strength of their team. The Redhawks won't be able to stop Cincinnati, but I think they can slow them down.

In terms of tempo, Miami is 91st in the country and Cincinnati is 120th. There won't be any fast paced play going on here. I think both defenses do a good enough job of preventing explosive plays to make this under very valuable. 

Miami is running the ball nearly 60% of the time so far this year, and Cincinnati runs it on 63% of their plays. Running clock is always helpful.

I had this one lined quite a few points lower.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over*

Wake Forest pushes pace about as much as anyone in the country. North Carolina wants to play quicker this year as well. The Tar Heels have faced two good defenses in the first two weeks. The Wake Forest defense isn’t good. Wake Forest has put up big numbers in back to back games, and I think they’ll be able to score plenty again here. Lots of pace and a lot of scoring from each side. Take the over.

*4 Star Play Over* Western Kentucky will look to play faster and air it out under Helton this year. The Hilltoppers defense was taken advantage of by Central Arkansas last week. FIU has a very efficient offense and I would expect FIU to take advantage of Western Kentucky's secondary here.

FIU faced a much tougher defensive line in Tulane last week and that bothered them. They don't face anything similar here from Western Kentucky.

Look for a lot of scoring in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Florida State was clicking on all cylinders in the first half last week against Boise State. They stalled out in a big way in the second half. Expect Kendal Briles to have some fixes for this week. The Seminoles have a huge talent advantage against the LA Monroe Warhawks here.

Importantly, Florida State was playing 5 seconds per play quicker than they did a year ago. The Seminoles played at the 2nd quickest pace of any team in the country in week one. I think they can put up a big number here.

Monroe has a veteran quarterback and a pretty good offense. They won't score too many, but it should be enough to get this past the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Baylor ranked 125th in red zone offense last year. They had some very untimely turnovers in the red zone last year, and I would expect much better from them with another year in this system and a veteran quarterback in Charlie Brewer. Brewer has improved weapons around him, and this offensive line is definitely better than a year ago.

UTSA has nowhere to go but up compared to last year on offense. They still won't be good on offense, but they will be improved. They have a new offensive coordinator who has helped them have a better scheme.

Baylor's offense is way too good for this UTSA defense. The UTSA secondary is a major weakness, and I would expect Baylor to have a lot of guys running wide open in this one. The Bears have picked up their tempo a bit as well.

The extreme heat (100 degrees) is helpful for an over as well. There are multiple strong angles regarding taking the over in a hot game. 

Look for Baylor to put up a big number here and UTSA to do enough to get this past the posted total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Colorado Buffaloes defense is way down from a year ago. Nebraska will push the tempo in a big way here, and I think this number is lower than it should be based on Nebraska's struggles last week. Nebraska's offense should get right this week and put up a big number here.

The Colorado offense is really dangerous with Montez and Shenault as the stars of the unit. Look for them to be able to find holes in this Nebraska secondary. 

I think this number is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Mississippi State's defense was amazing last year. While I don't think they will be bad this year, they lost nearly everything from last season on the defensive end. The Bulldogs defense is going to give up a lot more than they did a year ago.

On the other side of the ball, Tommy Stevens is likely a good fit for the Bulldogs offense due to the fact that he has worked with Joe Moorhead in the past and knows this offense well.

Southern Miss has a new offensive coordinator this year. He was an assistant at Arkansas State, and I would expect Southern Miss to turn up the tempo this year and pick up more big gainers. Southern Miss has a strong offensive line and the Golden Eagles offense should be far more efficient this year than it was a year ago.

Both of these teams played in a lot of low scoring contests last year, which has kept this number down enough to give us value.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Purdue Boilermakers aired it out early and often last week against Nevada. Purdue averaged 6.41 yards per play, so they moved the ball well. Turnovers were a big problem for the Boilers. Vanderbilt has had a strong secondary in the past, but they lost a lot from that unit, and I would expect Purdue's excellent group of wide receivers to be able to do damage against this secondary. Elijah Sindelar is a quarterback capable of throwing a pick six on a questionable decision or completing a long touchdown. The Boilermakers tempo was more than two seconds per play faster than last season in their week one game, and that is despite the fact they led for much of that game.

Vanderbilt said in the preseason they would play somewhat faster under their new offensive coordinator, and that was true in week one. They faced an elite defense in Georgia last week, but this Purdue defense is far worse. Purdue gives up too many big plays. Riley Neal and the Vanderbilt offense should move the ball pretty well here too.

I had this number at 60, so we are getting several points of value.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Eastern Michigan Eagles have arguably the best secondary in the MAC. Eastern Michigan will give teams who want to air it out often a hard time this year. Eastern Michigan is weak in the front seven though. Kyle Rachwal was the heart and soul of the linebackers and he is gone after racking up 127 tackles last year. The defensive tackles aren't very good against the run. That's important in this game.

Coastal Carolina is all about the run. The Chanticleers ran it on 66% of their offensive plays last year, and they might run it even more this year. They have some impressive talent at running back, and they have several guys who will see the field at that position. Look for them to have success breaking some big plays here.

Eastern Michigan's offense should be improved this year. The Eagles should be more balanced with a good athlete at quarterback in Mike Glass. The Coastal Carolina defense was horrible last year. They allowed 7.30 yards per play last year. They allowed a whopping 82 plays of 20 yards or more. Eastern Michigan should be able to move it consistently here as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Kendal Briles is the new offensive coordinator at Florida State. At Houston, Briles' offense was easily the fastest pace team in the nation. Briles has been stressing pushing the tempo ever since he got to Florida State. 

The Seminoles offense has too many talented players at the skill positions to not improve a lot in this new system. The OLine is still the weakness, but Briles should be able to draw up better plays and get the ball out quicker. 

Boise State isn't as strong in the secondary as many years, and I think the Seminoles will break some big plays. 

Boise State's offense typically moves at a normal tempo, and I don't think they will slow the game down too much here. The Broncos still have playmakers on the offensive end, and this Florida State defense will have to adjust to being on the field more with the offense playing at such a quick tempo.

This game was moved to Tallahassee and will start at noon. The hurricane winds shouldn't reach here until at least Sunday, and the current forecast calls for winds of only 6 mph during this game. 

With the tempo this game will be played at, I have to side with the over.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play on Over* The Kent State Golden Flashes play at an extremely fast pace under Sean Lewis. He was an assistant under Dino Babers, and he'll keep speeding this team up. Woody Barrett returns for another year at quarterback, and I think he is a really good fit for this offense. Barrett can run or throw, and the receivers are very solid for the Golden Flashes.

Kent State's defense gives up loads of big plays. The Golden Flashes allowed a whopping 42 plays of 30 yards or more last year. They won't be good this year either, and Arizona State still has some big play guys on offense.

Arizona State lost Manny Wilkins, but I really like Jayden Daniels. Daniels might struggle against top defenses as a freshman, but this is a great opportunity for him. Eno Benjamin is a great running back, and he should have a huge game against this Kent State defense. 

I would expect the pace here to be pretty quick, and the explosive plays from Arizona State should come often. Kent State's offense will be much improved this season.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas State Bobcats will look totally different this year. Jake Spavital is an offensive minded coach who wants to play uptempo. He brought in Bob Stitt, who is known as a mastermind of the fly sweep and many other unique offensive formations. Stitt is a guy who coaches turned to as they looked for innovation in the spread formation. 

Look for Texas State to go 4 or 5 wide often and use a lot of motion and quick passes. They won't substitute often because they really want to push the pace. While the Bobcats aren't great on offense right now, I think they can do enough here against Texas A&M.

The Aggies have a huge advantage offensively vs. an undersized Texas State defensive front. Look for plenty of big gainers from the Aggies offense led by Kellen Mond. 

With the tempo being at an extreme and the weather looking favorable here, I think this total is too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats had a terrific season. Kentucky is led by their great defense. Kentucky's defense ranks 16th in the nation adjusted for strength of schedule. The Wildcats have a future NFL linebacker in Josh Allen. He is likely the best player on the field here, and I expect him to give Penn State quarterback Trace McSorley a hard time. Kentucky's pass rush is excellent and Penn State has struggled in protection at times this year.

The Kentucky offense is all about the run. Snell is a good running back, but it is hard to move the ball against a quality defense when you don't any other threats. Kentucky's passing game is very weak. Penn State will be looking to try to make Kentucky beat them through the air. The Wildcats run the ball on about 64% of their plays from scrimmage, and they play at a very slow pace.

Six of Kentucky's last nine games finished with a combined point total of 35 points or less. Penn State has seen four of their last seven games finish at 41 points combined or less. 

Both teams are great at preventing big plays. I expect a hard fought game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Northwestern Wildcats and Utah Utes are somewhat similar in that the strength of their defense is the defensive line. Pat Fitzgerald and Kyle Whittingham are defensive-minded coaches. Both offensive lines have allowed a lot of tackles for a loss (NW 52nd best and Utah 80th). Utah is 7th in tackles for a loss on defense and NW is 70th. 

Both of these teams have done a good job preventing explosive plays. Both teams have allowed only 20 plays of 30 yards or more this year. Utah is 73rd in the country in plays of 30 yards or more and Northwestern is 117th. Northwestern is 43rd in 3rd down conversion percentage allowed and Utah is 25th. The two offenses are 62nd and 79th on 3rd down. 

Northwestern is 124th out of 130 in yards per play. This Wildcats offense just isn't any good. Clayton Thorson doesn't have enough weapons around him, and the offensive line is weak. This Utah defensive line is going to give them problems.

Utah will be without their two best playmakers in Britain Covey (WR) and Zack Moss (RB) here. Tyler Huntley is expected to play some at QB after being injured the last few games, but he may not start. 

I see both teams having to work hard to get anything on offense, and these defenses have been great at forcing field goals instead of allowing touchdowns in the red zone.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans are very good at turning games into sloppy low scoring games. How good? Their last seven games of the season all finished with a combined score of 38 points or lower. Four of their last six games finished with 28 points or less. 

The Spartans have an excellent defense and a terrible offense. Michigan State ranks 125th in the nation in yards per play. The Spartans is 13th in yards per play allowed. 

Oregon had a lot of high scoring games this year, but this is the best defense they have faced. They also aren't accustomed to teams who play at a very slow tempo as Michigan State does. 

The weather should help here. Santa Clara's Levi's Stadium is known as a nice under field because of the grass and conditions. The wind is expected to be blowing at around 20 mph during the middle of this game. That's a clear plus for the under with it making it harder to get big plays in the passing game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These are two excellent defenses. Clemson is first in the country in yards per play allowed. Notre Dame ranks eighth in the country in yards per play allowed. 

Clemson's defensive line is without one starter here in Dexter Lawrence, but I still expect them to be too much for this Notre Dame offensive front. Notre Dame has been acceptable in pass blocking this year, but they have a very hard task ahead of them to keep the pocket clean here. Clemson's Brent Venables is the best defensive coordinator in the country in my opinion, and I expect this Tigers defense to have a lot of different looks ready. The secondary was good most of the year, though they did have a couple slip ups. I expect them to get a lot of help from the pass rush. It's also important to keep in mind that Ian Book doesn't have much experience, and he hasn't played many good defenses yet. That changes here.

Trevor Lawrence is a really talented quarterback, but he's a freshman and he hasn't faced defensive challenges very often yet. Clemson's run game isn't likely to be able to dominate against this Notre Dame defensive front. Clemson hasn't had a great downfield passing game this year. 

Both of these defenses have been excellent at preventing big plays. That can make scoring take a lot longer, and it increases the likelihood of field goals instead of touchdowns. 

Two great defensive coordinators here and two very young quarterbacks. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Miami Hurricanes and Wisconsin Badgers meet in a rematch of last year's bowl game. Wisconsin won that game 34-24 because of a rare great passing game for the offense. Wisconsin will be without Alex Hornibrook for this game due to a concussion. That makes Coan the starting quarterback. He has thrown a lot of very safe short passes in his time under center. There isn't a big threat of the deep ball. 

Wisconsin is good at running the ball, but Miami is 11th in the country in yards per carry allowed. The Hurricanes are very strong in the front seven. Taylor will get his yards here, but I don't think they will come as easy as they do in most games. Especially with Miami knowing there isn't much of a passing threat.

Miami's quarterback situation isn't good at all. The Hurricanes have the 112th ranked passing attack in the country. Wisconsin's defense will likely dare Miami to beat them with the passing game.

Both defenses have been good at not giving up big plays. They both rank in the top 30 in the country at preventing explosive plays. Both offensive are in the bottom half of the country at getting explosive plays.

This game is played at Yankee Stadium in late December. The weather could help the under here as well with cold weather and possible winds.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather here looks significant. The current forecast calls for sustained winds of about 28 mph with gusts to 40 or 45 mph during this game. There is also a 50% chance of rain.

That kind of weather changes a game significantly. Most defenses fair much better against the run than they normally do in these conditions. Why? The opposing offense is more predictable. 

FIU's offense is all about getting big plays in the passing game. Those will be much harder to come by with this weather. 

The FIU defense has done a great job keeping the opposition from breaking big plays. That's important against a Toledo offense that is capable of breaking big plays in the running game.

The pace that these two play at isn't very quick for a total set this high. FIU ranks among the 30 slowest teams in the country. Toledo ranks 49th. Both teams will use a decent amount of time between the snaps.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UAB Blazers and Northern Illinois Huskies meet in an early season bowl game in the Boca Raton Bowl. UAB is all about running the football and they take their time between snaps. They can use a bunch of clock getting down the field, and if they are forced to kick a field goal it really helps the under a lot. 

Northern Illinois is 129th in the nation in yards per play on offense. The Huskies simply can't do much of anything on offense. Northern Illinois has been up against weak MAC defenses all year, and they still didn't have much success. 

On the other hand, Northern Illinois is a great defensive team. They rank third in the nation in yards per carry allowed. That's important since UAB is going to run the ball so often here. Northern Illinois is a tremendous defensive front. They have 50 sacks this year, and they should be in the backfield a bunch. 

UAB's defensive front is very aggressive, and Northern Illinois often hurts themselves with big negative plays on first down. UAB can take advantage of that to put them in bad spots.

This looks like a very low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Southern Eagles rank 130th in the nation in pace of play. They are using about 33 seconds between plays. Georgia Southern is also running the ball on nearly 85% of their offensive plays. They can use up a ton of time getting down the field. 

Eastern Michigan's defense has had a long time to get ready for the option attack of Georgia Southern. That has to be a positive. The more time you have to prepare for a unique offense, the more it helps the defense. Eastern Michigan also did a pretty good job slowing down Army's triple option. Army only averaged 4.0 yards per carry in their win over Eastern Michigan.

Eastern Michigan's offense doesn't have much of a run game at all. They are left to try to throw the ball, but this offensive line is terrible in pass protection. Eastern Michigan often has a hard time recovering from these big negative plays on offense. 

A big key to this selection is the ability of both teams to prevent big plays. Georgia Southern allowed only 17 plays of 30 yards or more this year (12th best in the nation). Eastern Michigan allowed only 18 plays of 30 yards or more (20th best in the country). 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs defense has really impressed me in the last couple seasons. This is a very well-coached unit. Fresno State ranks 19th in yards per play allowed. They also rank as a top 12 defense against the pass. 

Arizona State's passing attack takes a big hit with N'Keal Harry sitting this game out. I expect the Sun Devils to rely more on the ground. While they are likely to get some yards here, I don't think it will come all that easy. Fresno State knows the Sun Devils are without their star wideout and they'll be loading up the box more than normal.

The Fresno State offense hasn't been very good running the ball this year. They have been very good throwing the ball, but the Mountain West had some very weak pass defenses this year. I'm not convinced they'll tear up the Arizona State secondary as they have some other teams. 

I think Arizona State runs the ball much more than normal here and plays conservatively. Both teams play at a slow tempo as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Tulane Green Wave and the Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns both have very solid offenses. These are both offenses that rely on the run, but they both get a lot of big gainers on offense as well.

Tulane has a whopping 36 plays of 30 yards or more (14th in the country) this season. Louisiana has been even better with an impressive 40 plays of 30 yards or more. That is ninth best in the country. How are the defenses when it comes to defending explosive plays? These two teams have allowed 34 and 33 plays of 30 yards or more, meaning both of them rank in the bottom 30 in the country in that category. There should be some big plays here.

Tulane found a good playmaker at quarterback in Justin McMillan. He has made good decisions in the option offense, and throws a decent ball as well. 

The Ragin' Cajuns defense was consistently allowing a bunch of yards and points this year. They allowed a whopping 6.39 yards per play. They only held one FBS team below 26 points. 

The Ragin' Cajuns offense has been great and they are balanced. They put up 42 points or more five times this year.

These are explosive offenses and this isn't a total that is all that high.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Ohio State Buckeyes offense put on a show last week against Michigan. That was the top ranked defense in the country before Ohio State put up 62 points and more than 500 yards on them last week. Last week wasn't the first week the Buckeyes offense has looked good though. The passing attack is excellent with Dwayne Haskins leading the way. Haskins has a rocket for an arm and he has quite a few good receiving options on the outside. The Buckeyes running game has improved some in recent weeks as well. 

Northwestern's offense has improved toward the end of the year. Bowser has given them at least some decent production in the backfield. This is a team that throws it around often though, and they'll throw it around against a weak Ohio State secondary here. Clayton Thorson is a solid quarterback, and I think he'll have a good game here.

Both of these teams push the tempo, so there should be a lot of possessions in this game. Ohio State absolutely needs to win big here and be impressive, so I think they'll have their foot to the floor the whole game. We should see a wide open playbook as the Buckeyes showed last weekend. The Buckeyes defense has been weak all year, and I see Northwestern scoring a decent amount here too.

This game is played on a fast track under a dome in Indianapolis which should help the scoring as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boise State Broncos and Fresno State Bulldogs know each other very well at this point. They played twice last year, and this will be their second meeting this year. The previous three meetings were all won by Boise State with the following scores: 28-17, 17-14, and 24-17. None of those games were even very close to this total. 

In a title game, the motivation level should be very high to start with, and you know how badly Fresno has to want to beat Boise State now. The higher the motivation level- long-term it is good for the under. 

There is a slight chance of snow showers during this game. If that does come to fruition it helps the under ever so slightly in my opinion. 

Boise State's defensive numbers on the year are disappointing for sure, but they have played much better of late. Boise State has a lot of talent on defense, and I think this group is better than the statistics say. Fresno State has an elite defense, and they are great at not giving up big plays. 

Both teams play much slower than an average team, and that clearly helps as well.

This one should be a great game, and I like the value here.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* This is the Conference USA title game, and we have two well-coached teams here. MTSU beat UAB 27-3 last week, though that game meant very little to UAB. 

This is the game that decides the Conference USA title, and I expect a strong effort from both teams. 

UAB is a very run-heavy team. The Blazers rank 115th out of 130 teams in the country in tempo as well, so they can really eat up the clock as they move down the field. UAB also has multiple injuries on the offensive line. If those guys play they are going to be less than 100 percent. AJ Erdely the team's starting QB, is dealing with a shoulder injury. He'll likely try to play through the pain. 

MTSU's defensive line dominated UAB's offensive line last weekend. The Blue Raiders defensive front has turned into one of the best in the conference. 

MTSU's offense is all about the passing game with Brent Stockstill at quarterback. UAB has the best pass defense in the conference. The Blazers are very experienced in the secondary and I expect them to be well-prepared for the Blue Raiders passing attack here.

The weather is a big plus for the under. The average of forecasts now calls for rain and winds of about 16-18 mph for this one. That makes MTSU run the ball more and they aren't efficient there. It should reduce the amount of explosive plays.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers beat the Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns 27-17 at home earlier this year. That was a regular season game, and this is the Sun Belt Conference title game. This game clearly means a lot to both teams.

The Ragin' Cajuns have a great rushing attack,  but Appalachian State's defensive front is very good. App State ranks first in the Sun Belt in yards per carry allowed this year. I think they'll do a good job once again against the Louisiana running attack.

Appalachian State has a good offense, but it isn't as dynamic as it was earlier this year. The Mountaineers lost star running back Jalen Moore to an injury, and that hurts the offense quite a bit. Thomas is a good quarterback, but Moore was the star of the show at running back.

Both teams play slowly. Louisiana ranks 87th in tempo and Appalachian State ranks 99th in the country in tempo. Both teams run the ball much more than the average team in the country, so there is a lot of moving clock when they play each other.

The weather here should be a factor. The average of 4 forecasts calls for 42 degrees with 13 mph winds and gusts of 20 mph or slightly higher. All forecasts are calling for a very high chance of rain as well. Cold rain and wind is a clear positive for the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The San Diego State Aztecs have played 11 games this year. None of them have gone over this total. San Diego State excels at controlling the time of possession, running the play clock down and keeping their defense off the field. 

Hawaii is a big play offense, but San Diego State is good when it comes to not giving up big plays. The Hawaii defense has been much stronger against the run in recent weeks, which is important since San Diego State will be running the ball a lot here. 

This is a similar type of game to Hawaii/Army earlier in the year. Army runs it better than San Diego State though, and San Diego State has a better defense. I think we see a game in the 40's as San Diego State gets a lead and then runs the ball and eats up a bunch of the clock. Hawaii plays only at an average pace, and San Diego State plays very slowly.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* SMU has to win this game to become bowl eligible. Teams looking to become bowl eligible in their final game of the regular season have been strong trends toward the under. That certainly makes sense to me because as games means more it tends to help the under.

It has surprised me that SMU has actually been better on the defensive end than on offense this year. When Sonny Dykes took over, that isn't what you would expect. However, SMU has been winning games thanks to their defense. SMU's defensive numbers in the conference would make them a top 50 defense in the country. 

Tulsa is averaging a brutal 4.26 yards per play in the conference. Remember, this isn't a conference with many good defenses either. Tulsa is just that bad on offense. They have no passing game at all. 

SMU is all about the pass. The Mustangs have a very weak running attack. Ben Hicks and the passing game are solid, but Tulsa is much better against the pass than the run on defense.

The weather here helps the under also. Winds of 16 mph with gusts above 20 should make it harder to move the ball through the air.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over*  Louisiana Lafayette has a brilliant offense and a weak defense. The Ragin' Cajuns are 11th in the nation in yards per play. They are 107th in the nation in yards per play allowed. This is a team that has a whopping 35 plays of 30 yards or more so far this year. 

LA Monroe's offense has been a bit disappointing of late, but they tore up this LA Lafayette defense last year, and I think they'll have a lot of success here too. Monroe has had terrible turnover issues in the red zone this year, and with some normalization of those red zone numbers their offense should improve.

A back and forth high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UTEP Miners were blasted last week at Western Kentucky. That was primarily because of a ridiculous turnover problem. UTEP's defense has actually gotten a lot better throughout the season. UTEP is doing a good job not giving up big plays. The Miners are 50th best in the country allowing only 46 plays of 20 yards or more on the year. UTEP's yards per play allowed has trended in the right direction inside conference play.

Southern Miss has been great on defense this year. The Golden Eagles are 13th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Southern Miss has allowed only 29 plays of 20 yards or more, which is 5th best in the country.

The weather should play a role here too. Winds of about 20 mph are expected in El Paso for this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs take on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets on Saturday. This is a big rivalry game, and we've seen a bunch of lower scoring games when these two get together. 

Georgia Tech couldn't get anything going offensively last year in this matchup. Kirby Smart is a great defensive mind, and I would be surprised if Georgia Tech's triple option attack has a ton of success here. Georgia Tech's passing attack is terrible.

Both teams are very run heavy, and both teams move slowly. In fact, both rank in the bottom 12 in the country in terms of tempo.

A slow pace in a rivalry game with a lot of moving clock- I believe this total is too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* This number is a case where recency bias has allowed us to get a lower number than we should have on this game. Texas Tech is coming off a really poor offensive outing against Kansas State. The Kansas State secondary is solid though, and it is important to note that there were winds of 20-25 mph in that game. That helped slow down Texas Tech as well.

Baylor is coming off a couple low scoring games, but that was against Iowa State and TCU. Those are great defensive teams that are limited on offense. That isn't the type of opponent Baylor has in this game.

Baylor has allowed 32 plays of 30 yards or more this year. Texas Tech has allowed 33 plays of 30 yards or more this year. 

This one is played in AT&T Stadium, which is certainly good for the over.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* If you just look at these two teams from a statistical standpoint, this total looks about right. If you look at more of the outside factors, this total appears too high. Both of these teams are 5-6 and need a win here to get to a bowl game. The under trends are strong when one team is trying to reach a bowl game, and they are very strong when both teams are attempting to reach a bowl game.

In addition, the forecast calls for winds of 12 or 13 mph. That isn't enough to make a huge difference, but it does have a small effect on the game.

Thirdly, this is a very hard fought rivalry. The winner of this game gets the Old Oaken Bucket. It's one of the best rivalry trophies in sports. 

These two badly want to beat each other, and there is a lot on the line. This total has been bet up to where I have to take the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Buffalo Bulls have already wrapped up their side of the MAC. That means they can play wide open in this one. Bowling Green has nothing to play for here other than pride. The less the game means to both teams, the more helpful it is to an over in my opinion.

Buffalo's passing attack with Jackson and Johnson are too good for this Bowling Green secondary. Buffalo's defense looked bad last week and I think Bowling Green's uptempo offense can do enough here as well.

Both of these offenses have been bad in the red zone, and I think they are bound to have some positive regression toward the mean as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Iowa has played some tremendous defense at home this year. The Hawkeyes are giving up 11 points per game at home. Iowa ranks 8th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Iowa's run defense is a huge area of strength. Iowa ranks third in the nation in rushing defense when adjusted for strength of schedule. Overall, Iowa is allowing only 3.08 ypc. That's important here since Nebraska is a team that relies on running the ball. The Cornhuskers average 5.49 ypc, but I don't see them being able to gash the Hawkeyes defense like they have to many others this year. Iowa's defense has only allowed 23 plays of 20 yards or more all year. That is second best in the country. 

Iowa's offense is much better in the passing game than the running game. Iowa is averaging only 3.97 yards per play on the year. Nebraska's secondary has been strong, but their run defense has been susceptible. I'm not sure Iowa has the running game to take advantage of that. 

The passing attacks will be impacted by the weather here. The weather calls for steady light rain and 15 mph winds with gusts to 25 mph during this game. That's a clear plus for the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Air Force triple option is hard to prepare for any time, but when you have a short week like Colorado State does here, it is especially difficult. Colorado State ranks 124th in the country in yards per play allowed. This is a defense that has struggled badly all season.

Collin Hill has done a decent job leading this offense since taking over at quarterback. Colorado State will throw it a lot, and Air Force's clear weakness on defense is their secondary. Air Force is 120th in the nation in yards allowed per pass attempt.

The weather looks fine for this one and I see both offenses moving the ball a lot.

Take the over.  

*3 Star Play Over* The Vanderbilt Commodores host the Ole Miss Rebels on Saturday. Ole Miss has been able to turn just about all of their games into shootouts with their elite offense and very weak defense. 

Ole Miss has been so successful this year because they are a big play offense. Ole Miss has a whopping 48 plays of 30 yards or more on offense this year. That's because Jordan Ta'amu has a good deep ball, and Ole Miss has the best group of receivers in the SEC. 

Vanderbilt's offense has been better than most expected this year. Shurmur has been playing well at quarterback, and the Commodores still have a decent running game. Ole Miss has allowed 31 plays of 30 yards or longer, which is the 15th most in the nation. 

Both teams air it out a lot, which helps since the incompletions also stop the clock. Ole Miss won 57-35 when these two played last year. I wouldn't expect that many points here, but I do think another back and forth affair is coming.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Over* East Carolina ranks fifth in the nation in pace of play. The Pirates are going to keep playing really fast. East Carolina's offense hasn't been efficient this year though. Holton Ahlers is a guy the coaching staff is high on, and I expect him to improve over time. Ahlers will get a great chance here against a hapless defense.

The Pirates offense has been inefficient this year, but they are up against a UConn Huskies defense that is historically bad. UConn is allowing 8.88 yards per play (easily last in the country). Have they gotten better in conference play? Nope. They are allowing an even worse 9.26 yards per play in the AAC. They have allowed a mind-boggling 89 plays of 20 yards or more this year. 

The East Carolina defense has gotten worse as the season has gone along. The Pirates have allowed 26 plays of 30 yards or more. UConn's offense is middle of the road, but with a lot of possessions in this one they should put up enough in this situation.

Both offenses have had some bad luck in the red zone- which suggests that positive regression could be on the way especially when facing a weak defense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Air Force and Wyoming have both been a bit questionable on defense against the pass this year, but both of these teams excel at stopping the run. That works out for this selection since both offenses are virtually unable to throw the ball. 

Air Force has the 71st best rushing attack (ypc) in the country this year when adjusted for strength of schedule played. Wyoming ranks 17th at stopping the run. 

Wyoming has the 47th best rushing attack (ypc) in the country when adjusted for strength of schedule played. Air Force ranks 24th at stopping the run.

Both of these teams are much slower than the average team in terms of tempo. 

The weather forecast calls for 19 degrees with winds of 12-14 mph and about 4 inches of snow on Saturday. These conditions clearly help the under.

Take the under. 

*5 Star Play Top Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves and UL Monroe Warhawks meet this Saturday and I expect a lot of points here.

Arkansas State and ULM rank first and second in the Sun Belt in tempo. There will be a bunch of possessions in this game. Both teams are big play offenses and both defenses have given up a lot of big plays throughout the season. 

The strength of the ULM offense is their rushing attack. They are 39th in the nation in yards per carry. Arkansas State's biggest defensive weakness is against the run. Arkansas State has a big edge in the passing game against a terrible ULM secondary. 

Last year these teams played to a 67-50 final score. Arkansas State had 781 yards compared to 590 for ULM. 

Ironically, both of these teams have scored 38 and 44 points in their last two games leading into this one. The offenses are clicking right now and the offenses should have the upper hand all the way in this one.

Take the over. Top Rated Play. 

*3 Star Play Over* This line has dropped four points during the week, and it is low enough now that I am going to take the over. Northwestern ranks 30th in the nation in tempo. The Wildcats have locked up the Big Ten West. I would expect them to continue to play hard for Pat Fitzgerald though. 

There might have been some concerns about the weather from some, but the only real concern here is the cold temperature. A temperature around 23 degrees is expected, but winds of just 6 or 7 mph are in the forecast. In the past 10 years, games with a temperature of 30 degrees or lower and less than 10 mph winds have cashed to the over at a 58.5% rate.

Minnesota's defense is allowing a whopping 7.22 yards per play in the Big Ten. Northwestern's offense isn't very good, but they play fast and should be able to improve on their numbers from the year against this really weak defense. Minnesota's secondary has been very weak since Antoine Winfield Jr. has been out with an injury.

The Minnesota offense has been much better since Morgan started playing at QB. Minnesota is averaging 34.5 points per game in their last four contests.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* UAB ranks 8th in the country in yards per play allowed. Southern Miss ranks 16th in yards per play allowed. Both of these defenses are much improved from a year ago. Both offenses play much slower than the average team. UAB is favored here and is likely to be winning and running the clock and taking their time in the second half.

Southern Miss has very little running game and UAB has a tremendous secondary. I think Southern Miss will have a lot of trouble scoring here.

UAB and Southern Miss are both very good at not giving up big chunks of yardage. There should be a lot of moving clock here and a limited amount of big plays.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves are the fastest paced team in the Sun Belt. They have a veteran quarterback and the best wide receivers in the conference. Coastal Carolina's defense has been extremely weak all year. Coastal Carolina is allowing a whopping 8.48 yards per play in the Sun Belt. That's easily worst in the league. Coastal Carolina is worst in both pass defense and run defense in the league. 

Coastal Carolina's triple option should be able to move the ball against a weak Arkansas State run defense. The Red Wolves are allowing 5.52 yards per carry in the conference. Coastal Carolina is 34th in the nation in yards per play.

Arkansas State has allowed 28 plays of 30 yards or more this year. Coastal Carolina has allowed 30 plays of 30 yards or more. These are both among the worst in the nation. I see a lot of explosive plays back and forth here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This Alabama offense is tremendous, but Mississippi State clearly has the best defense they have faced so far this year. LSU ranks 39th in yards per play allowed. Mississippi State ranks 5th in yards per play allowed. Alabama will get their points here,  but I think it will be tougher than it normally has for them this season.
Mississippi State's Nick Fitzgerald hasn't proven he is capable of doing much of anything through the air against any quality defenses this year. Alabama will load up the box and force him to beat them through the air. While Alabama's defensive stats don't look amazing compared to some years, when they are in a closer game where they are focused like we saw last week against LSU this unit is elite. 
Both teams play very slow. Mississippi State ranks 110th in pace of play and Alabama ranks 91st. A lot of running from both teams here helps the clock keep moving.
Alabama is less likely to be fully motivated and that lowers the odds of them running up the score here. They wanted to prove a point last week and they proved that point in Baton Rouge.
Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Charlotte 49ers have changed the way they play this year. Charlotte was a fast paced team with a weak defense in the past. Now, the defense is the strength of this team and they are slowing things down and running the ball as much as possible to stay in the game. It has helped them stay competitive. They only allowed 7 points on defense against Tennessee last week.

Marshall has the best defense in Conference USA, and it would surprise me quite a bit if Charlotte is able to do much of anything on offense in this game. Marshall beat Charlotte 14-3 last year on the road.

I expect another low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*5 Star Top Play Under* Troy has the best run defense in the Sun Belt Conference. Georgia Southern is going to run the ball consistently with their triple option attack. I expect Troy to be much better at stopping it than a normal team. Georgia Southern plays at the slowest pace of anyone in the country as well. A lot of moving clock and long drives. If they are doing anything other than scoring a touchdown it is helping the under.

The Troy Trojans offense is a lot less explosive now that they are starting their backup quarterback. Troy has had some very low scoring games of late, and I think this one will trend the same way.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over * The UMass defense is extremely weak. How bad are they? They are 117th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They are 121st in yards per carry allowed. UMass still pushes the pace on offense. They rank 28th in tempo in the country. 

I've been impressed by Ross Comis' play at quarterback. He hasn't been the big step down from Andrew Ford that I expected him to be. The Minutemen have continued to be excellent on offense.

BYU's offense hasn't played a defense this weak so far this season, and I expect them to break a lot of big gainers.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Ohio State Buckeyes have a good passing attack. Their problem has been an inability to run the football. Ohio State is 57th in the nation in yards per carry this year. Inside the Big Ten, Ohio State is averaging only 3.66 yards per carry in Big Ten play. Their offensive line has struggled in a big way. Michigan State ranks third in the nation in yards per carry allowed. Michigan State just held Maryland to 0.9 yards per carry last game. That's important because before that game Maryland had been the best rushing attack in the Big Ten.

Ohio State's secondary has been a major problem this year, but I don't think Michigan State has the weapons needed to shred this secondary like some other opponents have. The Spartans are badly banged up at wide receiver. Michigan State will try to slow the game down as they always do. 

The weather here should play a role in this game. The weather forecast calls for winds of 18-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. There is even a chance for some wind-blown snow showers in this one. That should limit Ohio State's passing attack and make both offenses more predictable.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The USC Trojans have a new play caller in this game (Clay Helton) and they get to go against the weakest defense in the Pac 12. In fact, Oregon State ranks 127th out of 130 teams in the country in yards per play allowed. USC is expected to get JT Daniels back for this game, and the USC passing game has a huge advantage here. USC's receivers should have a big day with a lot of open space and height advantages for them over the DB's. Oregon State is allowing a whopping 8.2 yards per play in Pac 12 action this season.

USC's defense has disappointed this year. Oregon State's offense has been much better than expected this season. Jake Luton came back last week for Oregon State and he threw for more than 300 yards against Colorado despite not playing any the first half. He gives the team a much better quarterback now. Look for Oregon State to get some big plays on offense as well. USC is without star linebacker Porter Gustin.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Tulane is all about running the football, and that's a good thing against this USF defense. USF has a good secondary, but they are weak in the front seven. USF ranks 103rd in yards per carry allowed. Tulane's offense ranks 42nd in the nation in rushing offense when adjusted for strength of schedule faced. Look for Tulane to run the ball early and often in this option offense and get some big gainers here.

South Florida's offense plays at a very quick tempo. The Bulls rank 8th in the nation in pace of play. They are up against a Tulane defense that ranks 81st in defensive yards per play when adjusted for strength of schedule faced. The Bulls should be able to move the ball well here. USF has a lot of speed on offense, and that should be hard for Tulane to defend.

Take the over.