*4 Star Play Under* I don't see Washington State having the same kind of offensive success against Oregon that they had against Oregon State.

Oregon's defense is the best in the Pac 12 on paper. The Ducks secondary is arguably the best in the country. As good as De Laura looked in week one against the Beavers, he shouldn't have as easy of a time against the Ducks.

I also want to note that Washington State played at a very slow pace in their week one win. This isn't going to be the aerial attack fast paced offense it was under Mike Leach. They will run the ball a lot more, and I expect them to play at a slower than average tempo.

The early weather report calls for strong winds in this game, and that is another positive for the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Nevada Wolf Pack aerial attack really impresses me. Carson Strong is a really good fit for the air raid, and he has one of the best wide receivers in the country in Romeo Doubs. 

New Mexico was just torched through the air by a Hawaii team that isn't great in the passing game. New Mexico has already allowed eight plays of 40 yards or more in two games! This Lobos defense is really bad.

New Mexico plays very fast, and there should be quite a few possessions in this game. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather forecast here calls for winds of 20 mph during the game with gusts to 30 mph. There is also a 60-70% chance of rain during the game. That kind of weather can really change a game. 

Purdue is unsure if they will have Rondale Moore back for this game. He has been sidelined for undisclosed reasons. Purdue's running game has been very weak and the weather should hurt the passing attack.

Northwestern has a better quarterback this year, but they still aren't taking very many risks offensively. The Wildcats are actually playing at a slower pace this year than they did a year ago. 

This Northwestern defense is elite. They are 7th in the nation in yards per play allowed so far this year. Pat Fitzgerald's teams are always good on defense, and Northwestern has great veteran leaders at linebacker this year.

With these conditions, I'm on the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears are a defensive-minded team. Baylor averages only 4.71 yards per play on offense. The Bears are allowing 3 sacks per game. Baylor also isn't getting many big plays. 

Texas Tech offensively has been a big disappointment. They haven't gotten the good quarterback play they expected. They have struggled to get explosive plays as well.

The weather here is a big reason for the play. The winds here are expected to be 25 mph sustained with gusts of 35-40 mph. That is some intense wind, and it will make both teams far more conservative. 

High totals with a lot of wind have been great under plays in the past, and I like the value here. Neither team has a good running game, and the passing game should be more difficult here with the weather conditions.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* UTEP will play about as slow as anyone in the country this year. Coach Dimel is looking to try to save the defense which isn't deep. They'll run the football and attempt to use the clock and win low scoring games. It's the recipe his old school (Kansas State) uses to win games.

UTSA is much improved on defense, and the area where they have been susceptible is through the air, but I don't see UTEP being able to take advantage of that weakness.

Look for both defenses to have the edge here in what should be a game where both teams struggle in the red zone.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The West Virginia Mountaineers won 20-17 over TCU late last year in a game where neither team got to 300 yards of total offense. I think the defenses will be ahead of the offenses again here. 

TCU didn't look very good defensively early in the season, but in their last couple games they have rounded into form. Gary Patterson is a defensive-minded coach, so his defense improving at this stage of the season shouldn't be a surprise.

West Virginia ranks in the top ten nationally in all major defensive categories. They haven't played a tough schedule, but this TCU offense isn't good either. TCU lacks playmakers at the skill positions on offense. 

I see this as a lower scoring battle where both teams struggle to get into the end zone.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Virginia Tech Hokies run defense has been awful this year. Miami has big play potential in the backfield at all times. Virginia Tech has allowed 35 plays of 20 yards or more on the year. The Hokies are allowing 5.16 yards per carry on the year. 

Miami is allowing huge plays on defense this year too. This Hurricanes defense is far worse than they have been in recent seasons. Miami has allowed a whopping 37 plays of 20 yards or more already this season. 

Both Virginia Tech and Miami are much improved on offense this season. Miami is playing faster with King at quarterback as well. Both of these teams rank in the top 15 in the country in explosive plays on offense.

Expect a lot of big plays both ways.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Indiana Hoosiers passing attack looked very good last week. I wasn't sure if Penix was going to be consistent as a passer, but he looked great against what should be at least a decent Michigan secondary last week. Indiana's single biggest strength on offense is their pass catchers. They have tremendous wide receivers and they have a lot of size. That will be very tough for Michigan State to matchup against this week. 

Michigan State has been known as a defensive juggernaut in recent seasons, but this team is far different. They allowed 38 to Rutgers and 49 to Iowa. It's true the offense and its miscues played a big role in those scores, but this defense is no longer any better than mediocre. 

Michigan State will have to throw the ball often here. Indiana's run defense is very strong, but I do think their secondary can be beaten by many teams. Since I think Indiana will be ahead here, that should put the Spartans in passing downs for much of the game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Ball State Cardinals lost 38-31 against Miami last week. Eastern Michigan lost 27-23 against Kent State last week. Ball State is going to have quite a few high scoring games this year, but I think Eastern Michigan wants to do everything they can to keep games lower scoring this season.

Eastern Michigan played slowly against Kent State, and the Eagles averaged only 4.5 yards per play in that game. They held Kent State to 27 points. Kent State was able to put up 62 points on Bowling Green on Tuesday night. Bowling Green averaged 5.8 yards per play on offense in that game, and I don't think Kent State's defense is very good. Eastern Michigan lacks playmakers on offense in a big way. Their offensive line has been a strength in the past, but it isn't anymore. 

Ball State's secondary was expected to be pretty good this year. They weren't good in week one, but I think they'll look better here. 

Since I expect Ball State to have the lead, I think they'll slow their tempo down later in the game here. This total is posted 5 points higher than the posted total when these two played last year. The final score in that game was 29-23.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New Mexico Lobos have a new coaching staff and they want to play as fast as they possibly can. New Mexico only used 22.75 seconds between plays last weekend. The Lobos did get 7 plays of 20 yards or more in game one. 

Hawaii will play quickly under Todd Graham. They struggled badly on offense last week against Wyoming, but this New Mexico defense is far worse than that Wyoming defense. New Mexico gave up 7.52 yards per play against a very ordinary San Jose State offense last week.

Look for a lot of points from both sides.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* I have really been impressed with Coastal Carolina this year. How could you not be? Coastal Carolina is due for some regression to the mean on offense with their red zone and third down conversion numbers. Still, it is important to point out how much this Coastal defense has improved. Their defensive front is getting in the backfield a bunch, and they are up against a weak S Bama offensive line.

Both of these teams are very run heavy and they play slowly. Look for a lot of running clock in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 star Play Under* I'm very high on the Oregon defense this year. The Ducks have arguably the best secondary in the nation. They also have a good pass rush and good inside linebackers to stuff the run. It should be very hard to score on this team this season.

Stanford always plays slowly and I would expect the same this year. Stanford's defense looks improved especially in the secondary.

The Oregon offense is down a notch after they lost Justin Herbert. Look for a more conservative game plan from the Ducks this season.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Colorado Buffaloes don't have a good option at all at quarterback. They also have a new coaching staff who really wants to run the football and try to control the clock. I look for the Buffaloes offense to be much more conservative this year. They do have depth at the running back spot, and they are likely to use that early and often. 

UCLA has DTR at quarterback and he should be pretty good this year, but he doesn't have much talent around him, and the offensive line in front of him is a weak one. The UCLA defense isn't great by any means, but they are better than last year.

I don't think the market knows how much Colorado will run the football this year and play slowly. Look for them to grind away in this game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Florida Atlantic Owls have played three games this year. The final scores in those games have been: 21-17, 20-9, and 24-3. Western Kentucky has scored 14 points or less on offense in their last four straight games. These two teams have shown the ability to play in some very low scoring games. 

The tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico will change this game. The current forecast calls for sustained winds of 25-30 mph in this game with gusts to 40 mph. There is an 80 percent chance for rain and there could even be some heavy rain and thunderstorms during this one. 

These two teams are already fairly conservative on offense, but they will likely be even more conservative here. It will be very tough to kick field goals in this weather. 

Neither of these teams get many big plays to begin with, and in this weather that should be cut down even more.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Oklahoma State's game against Texas last weekend was deceptive. It was a very high scoring game, but Texas only gained a measly 3.8 yards per play. Oklahoma State turned the ball over in their own end a bunch, and they also gave up a kick return touchdown. 

Kansas State is a good under team with their running the football and very slow paced offense. 

Oklahoma State is a very run heavy team as well, and I think Kansas State will try to load up the box in this one.

The early forecast for this game calls for 25 mph winds with gusts of 35-40 mph. That would be a big boost to the under as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines defense was a disappointment last week against Michigan State. I think they'll play better here. Michigan has a strong defensive line. They are up against an Indiana team that is really struggling on the offensive front. Penix isn't a bad quarterback for Indiana, but he hasn't had much time to throw. Stevie Scott hasn't had anywhere to run either.

Michigan's offensive line is a major weakness this year too, and Indiana has a solid defensive front seven. I don't know that Michigan has the tools to make Indiana pay for their relative weakness in the secondary.

Both of these teams have struggled with getting big plays offensively in recent years. These are two teams with defensive-minded head coaches. 

I think this one should be around 51 so I'll take the value here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* I really like Carson Strong in the air raid offense of Nevada. Nevada's passing attack couldn't be stopped against a Wyoming defense that is clearly better than this UNLV defense. UNLV allowed 5.67 yards per play against San Diego State offense that has major problems. 

UNLV should improve some offensively, and I think they'll have to pick up their pace as they are likely playing from behind in this game. The Rebels have several options at quarterback this season.

I had this one in the low 60's.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* I've been really impressed by the Arkansas secondary so far this year. They have faced some good passing attacks and really shut them down. Their performance against Ole Miss was particularly impressive. Barry Odom is doing a great job with this defense. 

Kellen Mond and Texas A&M are inconsistent on offense. I see this being a team that can look great on some days and terrible on others. Arkansas should give them enough looks that frustrate them and make them less efficient than normal.

Arkansas on offense has only 11 plays of 20 yards or more in four games. The Razorbacks don't get big chunks, and Texas A&M is a well-coached defense. 

This one is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma State Cowboys are both significantly better on offense than they have been in recent seasons. They returned a lot of talent defensively, and Texas upgraded at the defensive coordinator spot. 

Oklahoma State is a run heavy team, so the clock should keep ticking on a lot of their offensive plays. Texas will give up some yards here, but they have been solid at not giving up big rushing plays. 

Texas' offensive line hasn't held up well against the best defensive lines they have played this year. I think this Oklahoma State defensive front gets in the backfield quite a bit in this contest.

The weather here calls for winds of 15-17 mph which is a bit of a help for the under as well.

The recent high scores between these two has given us some value on the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* With a new offensive coordinator this year, Northwestern is playing much quicker. The Wildcats offense looked great against Maryland in game one. They averaged 6.47 yards per play in that contest. Iowa is clearly better on defense than Maryland, but Iowa's defense is definitely down from a couple years ago.

Iowa still has enough weapons on offense to move the ball at least some of the time in this game.

The posted total was set so low that with the pace Northwestern is playing at, I had to back the over here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights only scored a bunch of points on Michigan State because Michigan State turned the ball over 7 times! Rutgers only managed 3.9 yards per play on offense. The Scarlet Knights will be improved on offense from a year ago (it would be hard not to be), but this offense isn't good. 

Rutgers will play at a relatively slow pace this year, and I would expect a lot of running plays. That plays into the strength of the Indiana defense, which is their front seven. Indiana has gotten so much better against the run in the last few years under Tom Allen. 

Indiana wasn't good offensively against Penn State. They averaged only 3.4 yards per play on offense. Again, it was Penn State's miscues that led to easier scores for Indiana. The Hoosiers will look quite a bit better on offense here, but their offensive line isn't very good. I think Penix and the skill position players will make some nice plays, but I don't think they totally dominate this Rutgers defense.

This one is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UCF Knights games have been extremely high scoring this year. In fact, three of their five games have finished with 79 points or more. The Knights other two games finished with 60 and 70 points. 

UCF ranks third in the nation in tempo. They are averaging a whopping 7.05 yards per play. Houston's defense has been terrible against the pass, and UCF has plenty of weapons in the passing game. BYU put up 43 points on Houston, and BYU doesn't play at a quick pace.

The UCF defense has disappointed this year. They have allowed 34 points or more in their last three games. Houston's weapons at skill positions on offense are very solid.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Southern Eagles play at an extremely slow pace. They are using nearly 33 seconds between plays, which would have ranked them as the slowest pace team in the nation last season. This is an extremely slow paced team that runs the football nearly 75% of the time. There will be a lot of running clock in this one. 

South Alabama is improved on offense, but they have played some really weak defense and they are due for some regression. They are converting on 49.32% of third down conversion attempts and that can't continue for a team that is getting behind the chains with as many big negative plays as they are right now. They are improved on offense, but they aren't this much better. South Alabama is also slower than the average team by quite a bit in terms of tempo. 

Some wind is expected for this one in Statesboro on Thursday night. Sustained winds of about 16 mph are a boost to the under. 

This midweek games have trended under through the years in college football. I see value on the under here.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* Nevada returns 10 starters on the offensive end this year. They will run the air raid with Mumme as their offensive coordinator. With a second year quarterback who looked good as a freshman, I expect their offensive numbers to be much better this season.

Wyoming has two solid quarterback options in Chambers and Williams. The Wyoming offensive line is probably the best offensive line in the Mountain West. The Cowboys should be able to run the ball on nearly everyone in this conference. 

Wyoming's defense should be way down from a year ago, and that is the primary reason I think this total is several points too low. 

With more scoring in general this year, this is a very low posted total. I think both teams get into the mid 20's here at least.

Take the over. TOP Rated play. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* Texas has had several high scoring games that are very misleading. They went into 4 overtimes vs. Oklahoma, but both teams averaged less than 5 yards per play. They also had a bunch of special teams/defensive setups for scores against Texas Tech in a game that should have never been so high scoring.

Baylor has a great defensive mind at head coach now and I think they can scheme their way to making Texas work hard. Also, Texas lost their top receiver due to injury.

My number here is in the upper 50's. Take the under. TOP Rated play. 

*4 Star Play Over* Ole Miss is one of the best over teams in the country right now. Lane Kiffin's team was slowed down by the windy weather, a bunch of turnovers, and a really good Arkansas secondary last weekend. That made this total low enough to bet the over.

Auburn's offense was better than the final score would indicate against South Carolina. It was their turnovers that really stopped them. Auburn averaged 5.8 yards per play. They are up against a much weaker defense in Ole Miss this week.

The Ole Miss offense is the best offense Auburn has faced so far this year. While Auburn doesn't have a bad defense, it is clearly much weaker than it was a year ago.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* These two teams both rank in the top 15 in the country so far this year in tempo. Temple's defense has been a strength in recent years, but they lost nearly everything they had from a year ago. 

Memphis is going to score a lot of points on nearly everyone in this conference with their skill position talent and the tempo they play at on a consistent basis. Temple should be able to throw the ball on this Memphis secondary, especially if they are playing from behind. 

While this total is set at a high level, I had this one a few points higher. Look for a lot of points in this contest.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green rank first in the nation in tempo, and it isn't particularly close. This team is absolutely flying up and down the field. Their offense is solid. They haven't scored in the red zone at the rate you would expect or they would have scored even more points. That should improve over time.

North Texas' defense might be the worst in the country. They give up big gainers constantly. MTSU has been inconsistent on offense this year, but against this North Texas defense they should be able to move the ball and score easily.

MTSU's defense is very weak against the run, and that is the strength of the North Texas offense.

I made this total in the low 70's, so I like the value here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Wake Forest plays extremely fast. They want their game to be a shootout, and they have been pretty good at forcing those shootouts. Wake Forest has a good quarterback in Hartman and they have enough skill position players to give Virginia some trouble. The Cavs secondary isn't what it was a couple years ago.

Virginia's starting quarterback is questionable here, and we may well see the backup here. That is a big reason why this total has moved down. I wouldn't have bet this game over the total at the opening line, but after the substantial drop this one is too good of a price for me to pass up.

Virginia has sped up their pace of play this year. We have two teams ranked in the top 14 in tempo out of all the teams playing thus far this season. 

We have seen a lot of higher scoring games in college football this year, and a number this low in a Wake Forest game is an over bet for me unless they are playing an elite defense. They aren't in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Duke is playing 2.5 seconds faster between snaps than they were a year ago. We have seen a couple high scoring games from the Blue Devils in their last two contests. I think we will see another one here.

Chase Brice is being more aggressive with the football. That can be good for the over because he throws pick sixes, and it can be good because Duke is getting more big plays than they did a year ago. 

These teams have given up 23 and 24 plays of 30 yards or more already this year. Both offenses rank in the top ten in explosive plays. We should see tempo and plenty of big gainers.

The weather looks good in this one, and I had this one projected several points higher.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather forecast here plays a large role in me taking the under. Sustained winds of 22 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph are in the forecast for South Bend. That kind of weather really changes the game, and makes both offenses more predictable. In the long run, that kind of weather has been great for under bettors.

Both of these teams play at a very slow tempo, so we shouldn't see too many possessions here. 

The Louisville defense has been bad this year, and I do think Notre Dame will score a decent amount of points here. Notre Dame's defense is pretty good, and Louisville should be more one dimensional than normal here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Liberty Flames have a very good quarterback in Malik Willis. Willis is an excellent runner who can really put pressure on a defense with his dual threat abilities. The Syracuse defense wasn't very good to start with, and now they are without star safety Andre Cisco. Syracuse gave up more than 600 yards last week against Duke. I think Liberty will move the ball quite a bit here.

Liberty's defensive numbers look pretty good this year, but you have to consider who they have played against. The Flames have faced Western Kentucky, FIU, UL Monroe, and an FCS team. Those are terrible offensive teams. Syracuse is bad offensively as well, but they have much higher recruited talent than any of those other teams. They also play at a very fast tempo.

This is a game played inside and with a total set at a low level. Given the pace these two teams play at, I like the value on the over.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats are going to do a lot of running the football this year. They ran all over Ole Miss, but the Mississippi State defense should be a tougher task. Kentucky will still get a lot of yards. I do expect it to take them time though. Look for Kentucky to try to keep the ball away from Mike Leach's air raid offense by controlling the time of possession here.

Mississippi State has allowed only 1.91 yards per carry so far this year. The offense looked amazing against LSU, but it stumbled badly against Arkansas. The Kentucky defense is a veteran group and with an 0-2 record coming into this one, we should get a strong effort from Kentucky.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The highest total in a game between these two teams in the last four years has been a combined score of 41 points.

TCU's defense hasn't looked good in the first two games of the season, but Patterson is a defensive-minded coach and this group has a lot of talent. I would expect much better results going forward.

Kansas State has a QB injury with Skylar Thompson questionable here. Even if he does play I like this under. The Wildcats play very slowly and they won't change that style no matter what.

TCU's offense isn't very efficient, and Kansas State's isn't either.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston College Eagles host the Pitt Panthers on Saturday afternoon. I've really been impressed with this Boston College defense under new coach Jeff Hafley. He was a defensive coordinator at Ohio State and did a great job with that Buckeyes defense. He is already helping this Eagles defense immensely.

Pitt has a top five defense in the country. Rashad Weaver is one of the best pass rushers in the country. The Panthers rank 3rd in the nation in yards per carry allowed (1.98). 

The weather in this game should be helpful. Sustained winds of about 20 mph are in the forecast with gusts to 25 or 30 mph. That is enough to change the game, especially since the winds are forecast to be blowing side to side in the stadium rather than at the back of either team.

Both of these teams prefer to throw rather than run, but the weather will make it more difficult. Both teams have really struggled to get any running game going. 

I expect a defensive battle here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game is set for Saturday afternoon in Jonesboro, Arkansas. The weather forecast for here looks very bleak. The current forecast calls for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph. There is also a 50% chance of rain through the day. 

Arkansas State doesn't have a good defense, but they are stepping down in class to play Central Arkansas instead of Memphis, Kansas State, or a good Coastal Carolina offense. 

Arkansas State is more than a two touchdown favorite here. The Red Wolves and the Bears of Central Arkansas are very likely to play more conservatively with this kind of weather. It would be very hard to throw the football very often with winds blowing side to side at 20-35 mph here.

The run defenses aren't very good, but if they know what is coming it should help quite a bit. Totals set this high in weather games have been great under bets over the years. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Liberty Flames are expected to have Malik Willis back for this one. He is a star quarterback who can do it all. ULM's defense has already allowed 21 plays of 20 yards or more, and Liberty will get a lot of big gainers in this one as well.

Liberty pushes the tempo, and they'll be playing in the lead here. ULM will have no choice but to pick up the pace.

ULM showed some offensive strength finally last weekend against a decent Georgia Southern defense. Liberty is very weak defensively, and ULM should be able to produce enough offensively here, especially since they should get some garbage time points.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The North Carolina Tar Heels offense hasn't been very good so far this year, but this offense has too much talent to struggle all season. Sam Howell is one of the better quarterbacks in the nation. He has a good offensive line and very good receivers around him as well.

Virginia Tech's running game has really impressed me so far this year. The Hokies are averaging a whopping 7.01 ypc through their first two games. I certainly don't expect anything like that in this game, but the Hokies offensive line has been great in run blocking. North Carolina's defense hasn't been tested by a team that has any semblance of a running game.

There is some rain in the forecast for this one which has made the total go down a few points, but the projected wind is 4 mph. Rain without wind is a neutral for the total. 

There are numerous injuries and COVID related absences in the secondary for both teams. That could lead to some big plays for both teams.

Hendon Hooker is expected to play for Virginia Tech here, and he is their top option at quarterback.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tulane Green Wave have played faster this year. They will still run the football early and often, but I think that will help them against a Houston Cougars defense that should be weak against the run this year. Tulane's uptempo run game should get yards in bunches here.

Houston has yet to play a game, but Dana Holgorsen has talked about wanting to play quickly. The Cougars have improved weapons at the skill positions around Clayton Tune this season. Tulane has yet to play against a really good offense. I think the Tulane secondary can be beaten.

These two put up 69 points last year. I had this number several points higher than the current posted total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green rank first in the country in tempo so far this year, and it isn't very close. North Texas coach Seth Littrell took over the offense this year and he said they wanted to go fast. He wasn't kidding. 

North Texas has a good spread offense with the ability to run or throw. The Mean Green are averaging 7.16 yards per play this year (9th in the country so far). 

Southern Miss allowed 66 points in an embarrassing loss to Tulane last week. I'm not expecting that kind of number allowed here, but this Southern Miss defense is allowing all kinds of big plays. They have already allowed 13 plays of 30 yards or more this year. 

Southern Miss does have a good passing attack. I expect them to be able to move the ball against a North Texas defense that is one of the worst in the country. North Texas gave up 65 points to SMU. Southern Miss definitely isn't SMU, but the Golden Eagles should be able to throw it around here too.

The pace should be there the whole way. Yes, this is a very high total, but my numbers put this game reaching into the upper 70's.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Ole Miss offense is going to play extremely fast under Lane Kiffin this year. Ole Miss gashed a really solid Florida defense this past weekend. They had 7 plays of 30 yards or more. Amazing. 

Kentucky has a pretty good defense, but I don't think they'll shut down Ole Miss either. The Rebels have a lot of playmakers at the skill positions on offense and they'll be put in a good position to succeed. 

Kentucky's offensive line is much better than the Ole Miss defensive front. I would expect Kentucky to have a much easier time moving the ball than they did last week against Auburn's defense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats put up a big number last week, but that was largely due to Oklahoma's mistakes. Kansas State only had 10 first downs in that contest.

Kansas State is playing at the third slowest pace of any team currently playing in college football. This team wants to run the ball and use up the clock. They should want to do that even more than normal here to keep Alan Bowman and this Texas Tech offense off the field. 

Texas Tech still plays quickly on offense, but they aren't quite as fast as they were a few years ago. The Red Raiders offense is far less efficient as well. They are only 23rd out of 72 teams in the country in yards per play on the year. Last week's game against Texas was misleading from a totals standpoint. Texas Tech only gained 5.8 yards per play and allowed just 5.3 yards per play against Texas. 

The last two years the meetings between these two teams have stayed well under this posted total. 

It isn't easy taking an under in a Texas Tech game, but I think Kansas State will control the tempo here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UTSA Roadrunners have played much quicker this year than they did a year ago. UTSA averaged 25.79 seconds between snaps last year, but they are averaging only 22.35 seconds between snaps this year. 

UTSA also only averaged 5.06 yards per play last season, but they are at 5.86 yards per play this year. Their running game has had quite a bit of success in the early going. 

UAB is also playing a little more than a second quicker this year. The Blazers quarterback for this one is Bryson Lucero, who had a big game last week against UAB. I think he gives the team more big play ability through the air than Johnston does. 

UTSA has a very weak defense. They are unlikely to be able to slow down UAB here. While UAB does have a good pass defense, their run defense has been shaky this season. Look for UTSA to be able to break some big gainers in the running game.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* I see West Virginia as an under team with their strong defensive front and weak offensive line. The Mountaineers don't push the tempo like most in the Big 12 do either.

Baylor looks like they were great offensively against Kansas if you just look at the final score, but that was primarily special teams greatness against a terrible Kansas kick coverage team. Baylor's YPP was a weak 5.25 against a bad Kansas defense.

Coach Aranda is obviously a defensive guy and Baylor should be pretty good on defense. 

The Mountaineers defense is one of the best in the Big 12. 

This one is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers should lean on the run game a lot this year. The strength of their entire team is the offensive line. They played slowly a year ago, and I expect them to play slowly again this season. 

Tennessee's defense didn't give up big plays last year. They were 3rd in the nation in fewest 20 yards or more plays allowed. With the secondary as a major strength I see that being the case again this year.

South Carolina brought in Mike Bobo to be the new offensive coordinator. He has talked extensively about the team huddling up this year and slowing the tempo down a lot compared to what it was in recent seasons. Collin Hill won the starting job and I'm not high on him at quarterback. There isn't enough talent on this South Carolina offense. Marshawn Lloyd was going to be the star of the show here at RB, but he is out for the year with an injury.

Look for a slow pace and a lot of moving clock in this game. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Duke Blue Devils offense hasn't been able to get going in the first two weeks. Struggling on offense against Notre Dame was to be expected, but averaging less than 5 yards per play against a questionable Boston College defense last week is a cause for concern.

Virginia lost star Bryce Perkins, and their offense will look totally different. Virginia threw it on more than 54% of their plays last year, and I would expect a lot more running this season. They are likely to play slowly and try to keep the clock moving. 

Duke's secondary is injured badly, but the Blue Devils have great pass rushers. Virginia doesn't have the passer or receivers to make Duke pay through the air. 

The Virginia defense is strong led by a great group of linebackers. The Duke offensive front is likely to struggle with the front seven of the Cavs. 

Look for a tight low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Spencer Sanders' injury hurts the Oklahoma State offense in a big way. Their backups are extremely weak as we saw on Saturday against Tulsa. The Cowboys were outgained by Tulsa, and their offensive line play was poor.

Sanders is very questionable for this game (he's in a boot right now), and even if he plays he will be far less than 100%.

The Mountaineers defensive line is the strength of their team. They should be able to slow down strong running attacks this year. 

Last year when these two teams met the final was 20-13. West Virginia's defense is better than it was a year ago. Oklahoma State returned 10 guys on defense, and they looked great in the season opener (though it was against Tulsa). 

With the uncertainty around Sanders, I believe this line is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The TCU Horned Frogs offense isn't likely to be good this year. They have serious questions at the quarterback spot. Matthew Downing has been named the TCU starter at quarterback. Max Duggan has been cleared to play and might play some (he was diagnosed with a heart condition in the offseason). The Horned Frogs offensive line will have trouble with strong defensive fronts this year. 

Iowa State's offense is Brock Purdy and a bunch of question marks. Purdy is a solid quarterback, but the line in front of him and skill position talent around him isn't nearly as good as it was a year or two ago. 

TCU's defense looks much stronger on the defensive front this year, and Gary Patterson's teams are always good in the secondary.

Iowa State's defense should get in the TCU backfield quite a bit here.

In my opinion, these are the top two defenses in the Big 12.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Syracuse Orange offense is dreadful. Syracuse is averaging less than 3 yards per play through their first two games. Pitt is a great defense so we can give them a partial pass for that, but North Carolina's defense isn't tremendous. Still, averaging 2.85 yards per play and having allowed 14 sacks in two games is just brutal. Neither of Syracuse's quarterbacks are the answer. The offensive line might be the worst in the country. 

Georgia Tech's defense is improving under Collins, who is a defensive-minded head coach. The Yellow Jackets allowed a bunch of points last week against UCF, but UCF is going to score in bunches against nearly everyone. Look for Georgia Tech's defense to look strong again in this one. 

The Syracuse defense has impressed me so far this year. They are running a new 3-3-5 defense, and it is hard prepare for. The Orange have confused opposing offenses. Georgia Tech has some improved skill position talent, but they are still young and I think the 3-3-5 can at least slow them down.

Syracuse isn't going to just methodically move the ball up and down the field on anyone in their current state. If they don't hit big home run long touchdown, they aren't scoring. Look for the defenses to hold the upper hand in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* I expect really big things from the Oklahoma State offense this year. The Cowboys were very good offensively last year, but I expect them to take the next step to being elite on offense this year as Spencer Sanders improves in his sophomore season at quarterback.

Oklahoma State has who I believe is the best running back in the country in Hubbard. Oklahoma State also has a top 3 or 4 group of wide receivers. The Cowboys want to play fast and they should be able to get plays in large bunches against a Tulsa defense that is going to be very weak this season. 

Tulsa's defense hasn't been very good in recent seasons, but they lost their top three defenders from last year's team. Tulsa's secondary is a mess, and Oklahoma State should be able to take advantage.

Tulsa's offense is improved this year. With Smith at quarterback, Phillip Montgomery can actually run the type of offense he's been wanting to run for the last few years. Their pace will be extremely quick.

No bad weather is in the area, and with the tempo this will be played at I expect a very high scoring game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Appalachian State Mountaineers have a veteran offense led by Zac Thomas at quarterback. They have a deep group of running backs and a good offensive line as well. I expect App State to be a balanced and very strong offense this year.

Appalachian State lost all 3 linebackers from last year, and all three of them were stars. They return just 5 starters on defense. The Mountaineers won't be bad defensively, but they are a clear step down from a year ago.

Charlotte returns a bunch of production on offense. Reynolds is a really underrated quarterback for this team. They have the offensive line to run on most teams. The 49ers have talked about playing a bit faster this year as well.

The 49ers defense isn't good enough to consistently slow down App State. The 49ers lost their top defensive lineman from last year.

These two teams met last year and the final score was 56-41 App State. Do I think we see something like that again? No I don't. However, they don't have to get even close to that high scoring to cash the over here.

Rain is expected here, but without wind I don't see rain as a negative, especially with two teams with great running games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Ohio Bobcats played in 7 games this year that reached at least 61 points. Ohio is a big play offense, and the Bobcats defense is no longer the strength it was a few years ago. Ohio is 87th in yards per play allowed this year, and that was playing an extremely easy schedule. The MAC has many very bad offensive teams.

Nevada has gotten a bit healthier in the last few weeks. Their offense should be able to break some big plays against Ohio. The Wolf Pack passing attack improved in the last couple weeks with Carson Strong airing it out quite a bit.

Ohio has a star quarterback in Nathan Rourke. The Bobcats averaged 6.7 yards per play (11th in the nation) this year. It would be pretty surprising if Nevada can do much of anything to slow down Ohio's offense. Nevada is 106th in opponent QBR and Rourke should make this Nevada secondary look bad.

The weather looks good for this one and this fits a system of two teams with less than 65% wins straight up going 59% over the posted total in the last 15 years in bowl season.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Michigan Wolverines offense got quite a bit better late in the season. During the Penn State game it seemed something finally clicked for Shea Patterson and this group. The new faster paced offense is better than their previous pro style slow paced offense. 

The Alabama defense isn't what it has been in previous seasons. The Crimson Tide allowed 48 points against Auburn. They also allowed 23 to South Carolina and 31 to Ole Miss. 

Alabama's offense might be without Tua, but they still have all kinds of playmakers. The Alabama wide receivers will be the best group of receivers Michigan has seen all year. The Crimson Tide excel in getting big plays. 

While the Michigan defense is good, they were moved on easily by the best teams they played this year. Wisconsin rolled to 35 points and Ohio State racked up 56 points. 

Conditions look good here so weather shouldn't be a factor. Look for both teams to get to the end zone pretty often in this contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Navy Midshipmen take on the Kansas State Wildcats in the Liberty bowl on Tuesday.

Navy looked great in their final regular season game against Army. This Midshipmen team is much improved in every way compared to a year ago. What is most improved? The Navy defense. Navy ranks 14th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. They drastically cut down on the explosive plays they gave up.

Kansas State's Chris Klieman saw the triple option a lot in his time in FCS football with North Dakota State. I would expect his coaching staff to do a good preparing his defense for the tough task of slowing down Navy. Navy will get their yards, but I don't think it will come all that easily. 

Kansas State had only 48 plays of 20 yards or more (104th in the nation). That was playing against a bunch of bad defenses in the Big 12. The Wildcats are not a big play offense. 

Kansas State ranks 127th in pace of play and Navy ranks 117th. Navy runs the ball 88% of the time on offense and Kansas State runs it on 64% of their plays. A lot of moving clock here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Memphis Tigers offense is explosive. No one can deny that the Tigers have big play ability at all times. Memphis isn't accustomed to playing a defense as good as Penn State though. The Tigers played the 71st toughest strength of schedule according to Sagarin. The best defense they went up against this year was Temple. Penn State will now clearly be the best defense Memphis has gone up against. 

Penn State ranks 1st in the nation in yards per carry allowed. Memphis is accustomed to getting some big gainers on the ground, and I don't think they'll get many of them here. Brady White is a good quarterback, but he hasn't been great against the best defenses he has faced in his career. 

The Penn State offense ranks only 58th in yards per play so far this year. They have been very inconsistent this year. Memphis' defense isn't a major strength by any means, but they aren't the weakness they were in past seasons. The Tigers are 36th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Both of these teams play at about an average pace. This is a high total for a game involving an excellent defense and two teams who play at an average pace.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Iowa Hawkeyes have been a team I've backed many times for unders in recent years, but I'll be on the over in this game. USC has been a very good over team, and I think this number is set a little low.

Iowa plays in the Big Ten West. To say that there aren't good quarterbacks in the Big Ten West is an understatement. Truthfully, there aren't any good passing attacks. Iowa's seccondary is good, but they aren't as good as the numbers on the stat sheet will tell you. Let's take a look at some of the opponents they have faced. They faced Miami (Ohio), Rutgers, Purdue (without their QB and Rondale Moore), Northwestern (yikes), MTSU, Illinois, and Nebraska (Martinez isn't good). Even the good teams they played this year aren't that good through the air (Wisconsin and Michigan for example). 

Iowa actually gave up 400 plus yards 3 times (Iowa State, Wisconsin, and Minnesota). Their defense is good but not great.

USC has three guys projected to be first round draft picks at wide receiver. Slovis is an excellent quarterback. Graham Harrell is an excellent offensive coordinator and I expect USC to be well prepared offensively. 

Iowa also isn't accustomed to facing defenses as weak as USC's defense. The Trojans are banged up in the secondary, and their run defense is really bad to start with. USC only allowed less than 20 points twice this year. The Trojans don't have the pass rush needed to make Iowa uncomfortable. 

The weather shouldn't play a role here in San Diego. The Hawkeyes have a good quarterback in Stanley and I think he makes some big plays here. Slovis and his wide receivers should connect on some big gainers. 

Iowa isn't likely to end up in a low scoring game like they would against most of their Big Ten West opponents. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game is being played in Boca Raton (at Florida Atlantic). The weather here should be factor. Winds of 20 mph with higher gusts are forecast for gametime here. 

I wouldn't typically want to play an under with these two teams, but with this high of a number and the weather factor- I'm taking the under.

Both of these teams are more explosive through the air than on the ground. With high winds like this it should limit the downfield passing attacks some. 

I would expect to see some more running of the football than most would expect, and both rushing defenses are pretty strong. With more running plays the clock keeps moving which is clearly a plus for the under.

There are numerous very strong systems for high wind unders with a high posted total. I'll go with the systems here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego State Aztecs have been an under machine this year. Only one of their games has gone over the posted total. In fact, San Diego State's last four games have all finished with a total of 30 points or lower. 

San Diego State plays slowly on offense, and they are very inefficient. Juwan Washington is a good running back when he's healthy, but he is banged up now and is questionable for this game. San Diego State has very little passing game.

Central Michigan had a good year offensively, but they were up against some extremely weak defenses in the MAC. Central Michigan scored only 12 points against Miami and 0 points against Wisconsin. 

Though this is certainly a low number, I think this game is likely to stay in the 30's.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Utah State Aggies are second in the nation (out of 130 teams) in tempo. Kent State is 8th in the nation in tempo. Both teams have struggled at times this year with teams who look to slow the game down and bleed the clock while controlling the ball most of the game. That won't be an issue here. Both teams want to get snaps off as fast as they can, and there should be a bunch of possessions in this contest.

Jordan Love has had a disappointing season. Love was terrific a year ago for Utah State. He is clearly a very talented quarterback, but the cast around him wasn't quite as good this year. They also played some solid pass defenses in the Mountain West. Adjusted for strength of schedule, Kent State's pass defense ranks 128th in the country this year. This is a great chance for Jordan Love to go out with a bang and put up a lot of yards against this Kent State defense.

Crum has done a nice job for Kent State at quarterback. He doesn't make sensational plays too often, but he is efficient with the football. He has good receivers on the outside, and I think Kent State can get some big gainers in this game. 

Bowl games between two teams with middling records have been strong to the over in the past few seasons. 

Look for the extreme tempo to lead to quite a few points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Clemson Tigers are just way too good for everyone in the ACC. Clemson's offense didn't play up to expectations for a while this year, but they have been great in recent weeks. Dabo Swinney made it clear a few days ago that he believes the country doesn't respect them enough. Will Clemson want to prove a point in this game? It seems likely.

Virginia's defense was really good early in the season, but if you look at the recent trends from this Cavs defense it is very concerning. Virginia gave up 25 first downs and 483 yards against a subpar Virginia Tech offense. Liberty threw for 313 yards against this Virginia secondary. Virginia gave up a whopping 28 points to a very weak Georgia Tech offense. The Cavs defense is not finishing the season strongly at all. Virginia is without star cornerback Bryce Hall and that has really hurt this unit. 

Clemson has scored 52 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games. The Tigers have rolled up 516 yards of offense or more in seven straight games. I think they'll put up a big number here. 

Virginia has scored 20 points or more in all but one game this year. The Cavs do have a good quarterback in Bryce Perkins. Perkins though can make some bad mistakes with the football or hold the ball too long at times. It could create big plays for either the Virginia offense on a big gainer or a pick six or strip six if he doesn't get rid of the ball quicker.

The weather looks good for this game. I see this number as a little too low considering how consistent both of these teams have been at scoring.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* This Pac 12 title game between Utah and Oregon will be played on Friday night in Santa Clara. Utah has a lot on the line here. If LSU beats Georgia, the Utes have a real chance to sneak into the playoffs this year. Utah would be well served to not only win, but be impressive in winning.

The Oregon offense hasn't been good against quality defenses this year. Oregon has had long droughts against good defenses. The Ducks were only 4th best in the Pac 12 in yards per play on offense. Utah was easily first in the conference in yards per play allowed. In fact, Utah was 4th best out of 130 teams in the nation in yards per play allowed. Utah doesn't give up big plays. The Utes should do a great job keeping Oregon in front of them.

The Utah offense relies on the running game. Utah runs the ball on nearly 66% of their offensive plays. Utah has also played at the single slowest pace of any team in the nation this year. They take a lot of time off the clock even when they do score. Oregon ranks 13th in the nation in yards per carry allowed.

Both of these teams are far stronger on defense than offense. 

The forecast in Santa Clara calls for rain all week. On Friday night, rain and some winds are in the forecast. Levi's Stadium has been good for unders to begin with, and this weather would help the under quite a bit.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Utes defense is tremendous. The way they have been dominating games lately has been truly amazing. Utah has allowed 7 points or less in five of their last six games. The Utes have only allowed 20 plays of 20 yards or more all season. That is some excellent work at preventing big plays. Colorado's offense has been disappointing all year, and I would be surprised if they have much success at all here. 

Utah plays at the second slowest tempo of any team in the country. The Utes also run the ball on 66% of their offensive plays. They have shown they are willing to slow down and run the ball even more when they are ahead by a large margin. That is likely to be the case here. 

Colorado's defense has played much better in their last three games. They have a defensive-minded head coach and their seems to be improvement being made. Colorado has been more conservative on offense of late and slowed the pace some too.

I see Utah winning big here and this one staying under the total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Iowa State has one of the better defenses in the Big 12. There are so many really high scoring teams in the Big 12 that the oddsmakers have to put a fairly high total on every game. Still, it can create some opportunities in spots where the defenses seem to have an advantage.

Kansas State runs the ball 62.5% of the time on offense. This is an offense that wants to be conservative and move very slowly. Kansas State ranks 127th in the nation in tempo. The Wildcats are only 79th in yards per play on offense.

Iowa State's strength is stopping the run defensively. The Cyclones are 36th best in the country in ypc allowed. They are giving up only 3.93 yards per carry in conference play.

Iowa State plays at a slightly slower than average tempo. The Cyclones usually rely on the pass to move the football.

The weather looks very shaky for this contest. Heavy winds of 20-25 mph are forecast according to multiple sources. 

I like the under without the wind, and with the wind this looks very valuable.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pitt Panthers are a strong under team. Pitt is playing slightly faster this year, but their offense isn't efficient at all. Pitt is 114th in yards per play this year. The usually strong running game just isn't good this season.

Pitt is excellent defensively. Their strength is stopping the run. Pitt ranks 7th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. The Panthers easily rank as the best run defense in the ACC.

Boston College is all about the run. If you can stop the run, you should have a lot of success stopping the Eagles offensively. I expect Pitt to at least slow them down here. 

The weather looks questionable in Pittsburgh on Saturday. If there is wind and rain it would be a plus for the under.

Look for a low scoring contest here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Southern Miss is much improved offensively this year. They rank 24th in the nation in yards per play. Their running game hasn't been very good, but they have been very good throwing the football. Southern Miss ranks 10th in the nation in yards per pass attempt.

Florida Atlantic started the season a little slow offensively, but the Owls have gotten things going as one would have expected. The Owls are third in CUSA in yards per play. They are first in total yards. Florida Atlantic is the second fastest paced team in the conference. 

Both of these teams have really had trouble with keeping the play in front of them. Both defenses have given up a lot of big plays this year. Southern Miss has allowed 26 plays of 30 yards or more (86th in country). Florida Atlantic has allowed 31 plays of 30 yards or more (114th in the country). 

Look for both teams to score quite a few points here. Both offenses have clear advantages.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears have had a bunch of low scoring games in the Big 12. We all know this is a conference where a good defense and low scoring games are very rare. 

In Baylor's last 9 games, 7 of them have had 44 points or less total in regulation. The Bears have gotten more conservative on offense and they are leaning on their very strong defense. 

Baylor quarterback Charlie Brewer is banged up with an ankle injury. He is likely to play through it, but that likely makes them a little more conservative on offense. 

Kansas has relied strongly on big plays this year on offense. They aren't an offense who can consistently put together strong drives. The Jayhawks face a Baylor defense who is great at preventing big plays. Baylor has only allowed 32 plays of 20 yards or more (7th in the country). 

An important factor here is the weather. The forecast calls for sustained winds of 22-25 mph and gusts of 35-40 mph during this game. There are very strong angles for taking unders in that kind of wind. It should make both teams run the ball a lot more often here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Syracuse Orange offense has been better the last couple games. Syracuse put up 510 yards last week against Louisville. They had 395 yards and 49 points against Duke the week before. Syracuse always plays quickly. They are 16th in the nation in pace of play this season.

Wake Forest is 12th in pace of play, so they are extremely quick. The Demon Deacons are without a couple receivers on offense, but they still put up 618 yards and 39 points on Duke last weekend. I rate the Syracuse defense as the worst defense in the ACC.

Both teams have given up a bunch of big plays this year, and I would expect quite a few big gainers again here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers and Indiana Hoosiers have a fierce rivalry. They play for the Old Oaken Bucket. These two teams always get up for this game, and I would expect a lot of intensity on Saturday in West Lafayette. 

Indiana's defense is much improved this year. The Hoosiers rank 35th in the country in yards per play allowed. Indiana has slowed their tempo offensively to help the defense this year, and it has worked. 

Purdue's offense is a shell of its former self without Rondale Moore and Elijah Sindelar. Purdue is reliant on throwing the football now. They have virtually no ground game. Purdue ranks 127th in the nation in yards per carry at a paltry 2.65 per carry.

Indiana's offense also relies on the pass quite a bit. The Hoosiers are 104th in the nation in yards per carry. 

These teams relying on the pass could hurt quite a bit here based on the weather this weekend as well. Multiple forecasts are calling for rain all throughout the day on Saturday, and the rain could be an inch or more. The wind is expected to pick up and be an issue too. The field at Purdue is a grass field and it can get torn up pretty easily. Those conditions are helpful for the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The TCU Horned Frogs and West Virginia Mountaineers are two of the better under teams in the Big 12. We see a very low total here for a Big 12 game, but I think it is justified. 

The forecast for Friday calls for heavy rain and 15 mph wind. This is a grass field and that will make it tough for scoring.

In addition, West Virginia has virtually no running game. How will they move the ball here? TCU is excellent in pass coverage and the weather will hurt as well.

TCU relies on the run, but West Virginia is excellent at stopping the run. 

The matchups and the weather make this an under play for me.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Iowa Hawkeyes haven't played a game that has gone higher than 46 points in the Big Ten. That is just slightly above this number, but there is another key factor involved.

The weather for Friday's game in Nebraska looks terrible. Freezing rain and rain with winds of 15 mph sustained and gusts to 20-25 mph are expected throughout the game. That is definitely significant enough weather to change the game. 

Iowa is 13th in the Big Ten in yards per carry, and I don't think they can consistently move the ball by being extremely conservatively. It will be hard to do anything other than be very conservative in this weather.

Nebraska plays quickly, but they haven't been efficient on offense.

Both defenses are excellent at preventing big plays. Even if the teams move the ball it should be in small increments and take quite a bit of time off the clock.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Northern Illinois hosts Western Michigan for this Tuesday MACtion contest. Western Michigan has been the most consistent team in the MAC this year. The Broncos have a good offense and a weaker defense. Northern Illinois has been a disappointment in general this year. The Huskies are 98th in the nation in yards per play.

Both of these teams prefer to play at a slow tempo. Western Michigan ranks 75th out of 130 in tempo. Northern Illinois is 98th in tempo. 

The weather here is the primary reason for this play. The forecast calls for 20 mph winds with gusts of 35 mph during the game. Rain is expected as well throughout the game. A clear positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* San Diego State hasn't seen a single game finish above 48 total points so far this year. I fully understand that they are playing a Hawaii team who is capable of playing very high scoring games here, but I have to take the under in a San Diego State game with a line set this high.

San Diego State's running game isn't even close to what it was a couple years ago. Washington is banged up in the backfield, and the offensive line isn't very good. Ryan Agnew is a clear weakness at quarterback. The Aztecs don't have good weapon on the outside either. 

The Aztecs still have a good defense though, and they have been good at preventing big plays.

Hawaii's offense is all about explosive plays, but I think they'll find those harder to come by this week. Hawaii only plays at the 85th rated tempo out of 130 in the country, so they play much slower on offense than most realize.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* Arizona State is likely to want to slow the pace down here and keep this a low scoring game. I believe they will know that gives them a better chance in this contest. The Sun Devils offense hasn't been very explosive this year. Arizona State has only 39 plays of 20 yards or more (105th in the nation). 

Oregon's defense has been really good all year. The Ducks rank 9th in yards per play allowed. Oregon ranks 4th in opponents QBR rating allowed. Arizona State's run offense has been really weak all year. It's hard to see Arizona State having too much offensive success in this game.

Oregon's offense has been very inconsistent this season. The Ducks have had several key injuries on offense. 

Arizona State has allowed just 12 plays of 30 yards or more all year (11th best in country). Oregon has allowed only 8 plays of 30 yards or more all year (2nd best in country). I like defenses who prevent big plays when looking for an under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers offense has been awful the last four games. First, they scored only 14 points in a loss to the hapless Vanderbilt Commodores. Missouri then followed it up by scoring 7 points at Kentucky. Kentucky is a decent defense, but they aren't great. Missouri was then shut out by Georgia and held to 6 points by Florida. The Tigers have scored a total of 27 points in their last four contests. They have only one touchdown in their last three games.

Tennessee's defense has been very solid this year. Adjusted for strength of schedule faced, this is a defense that I rate as a top 30 defense. The Volunteers aren't likely to give up many big plays here.

Missouri's defense has been excellent this year. The Tigers rank 14th in yards per play allowed. Tennessee's offense is 91st in yards per play on the season.

I think this is a tight low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Desmond Ridder is playing banged up right now, and it is making Cincinnati a more predictable team. Temple is a defense that is due for positive regression. All year Temple has been much better in yards per play allowed than points per game allowed. This is a team with a very solid front seven on defense. 

Cincinnati wants to play slowly and eat up time. The Bearcats weren't particularly good at getting big gainers even with Ridder healthy, but they have gotten worse in that area with him at less than 100% percent.

Temple's offense ranks 11th in the conference in yards per play. They have very little running game. They also lack a trustworthy quarterback.

I see a lower scoring game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs have proven to be a great team led by an amazing defense and solid running game. Georgia plays very slowly. The Bulldogs are 122nd in the nation in tempo. With a lead, Georgia has been more than willing to just run the ball up the middle and burn up the clock. They are a decent sized favorite here, so they are expected to be playing in the lead during this game. That's a positive for the under.

Texas A&M's offense has been a disappointment this year. They are 6th in the SEC in ypc, but Georgia is first in ypc allowed. Kellen Mond has been disappointing this year, and he doesn't have receivers who break many big plays.

The weather is a factor here. Georgia's field is a grass field that can get sloppy in rainstorms. There is heavy rain expected before this game and showers during the game. Winds of 10-15 mph will be blowing during the game too. 

I see both teams being conservative in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green expect to have Mason Fine back under center here. Fine is the best quarterback in Conference USA. Fine should be able to find a lot of holes in this Rice secondary. Rice has been pretty good at stopping the run this year, but their secondary just isn't good enough. North Texas has the quarterback and the receivers to make them pay.

Rice has started to show some more offense in recent weeks. The Owls are now up against one of the weakest defenses in the conference. The Mean Green have been giving up scores by the bunches. 

This total is set several points too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* We have 2 good defenses in this matchup.  VT ranks 30th and Pitt ranks 7th in yards-per-play. VT ranks 31st and Pitt ranks 6th in yard-per-rush. VT ranks 39th and Pitt ranks 14th in yard-per-attempt. Pitt also leads the nation with 45 sacks and VT ranks 12th in the same category. Both defense also rank in the top 25 of red zone scoring percentage..

*3 Star Play Over* The biggest weakness of this Notre Dame team this year is their rushing defense. We saw it against Michigan in a big way. It also has showed up in some of their other games. Notre Dame ranks only 55th in yards per carry allowed. The Fighting Irish now go up against a Boston College offense that has gotten a bunch of big gainers on the ground this year. 

Boston College has scored 89 points in their last two games. Their problem is they don't have any defense. Boston College has allowed more than 40 points in three games already this year. The Eagles are 117th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Notre Dame ranks 38th in pace of play. The Fighting Irish will get plenty of chances to score here. Boston College ranks 4th in tempo. The Eagles should be able to score their fair share as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Ohio State's offense has been tremendous this year with Justin Fields and J.K. Dobbins giving the team two great runners in the backfield. The offensive line has been far better than anyone could have imagined. Ohio State has excellent receivers too. Penn State has been victimized by good passing attacks the last couple weeks. I think Ohio State can do damage there and the screen game with Dobbins could give Penn State fits as well.

Ohio State's defense has been very good this year, but they haven't had to play too many good offenses. The Buckeyes will likely give up some explosive plays against a Penn State offense that takes a lot of chances.

This total was set under several key totals numbers. Both teams play quickly and I see this line as a solid value.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Akron Zips scored two touchdowns last week against a weak Eastern Michigan defense. Don't let that fool you into thinking Akron is getting good offensively though. Akron hit a 87 yard TD pass for one of the scores and then they scored with a minute left when Eastern Michigan was up huge and playing a prevent defense.

Miami (Ohio) has the best defense in the MAC. Akron has been held to 6 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. A touchdown or less from Akron is very possible here. 

Miami (Ohio) is weak offensively and they typically try not to run up the score. The Redhawks should win this game comfortably, and I believe that's a good thing for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia State Panthers will be without star quarterback Dan Ellington in this one. Ellington was hurt at the end of the second quarter in last week's 45-31 loss to ULM. Georgia State scored 24 points while Ellington was in that game, and they scored only 7 points without him. Cornelious Brown was 8/18 for 80 yards in relief of Ellington. Brown isn't the player that Ellington is, and Georgia State is up against a good defense here.

Appalachian State's defense didn't look very good earlier this year, but they have rounded into form. Appalachian State has allowed 7 points or less in three of their last four Sun Belt games. In their last five games overall, the Mountaineers have given up an average of 11.2 points per game.

Georgia State's defense is bad, and Appalachian State should be able to move the ball a lot on them. The Mountaineers have slowed their pace down with big leads though, and I think this total is several points too high given the GA State quarterback situation.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both schools actually rank in the top 40 in yard per play and despite Air Force's slow tempo, they have been able to put points on the board due to their effectiveness in the red zone (averaging 38 points per game in conference play so far). The Falcons also have a bit more of a passing game to keep teams honest than they have had in recent seasons. 

*4 Star Play Under*  Bo Nix and the Auburn offense has struggled when they step up in class. While he does look better at home, that has been against far inferior defenses. On the flip side of the ball, Auburn's defense has been outstanding all year long, including holding LSU to their lowest point total and their lowest yard per play (per game) of the season, and that was in Baton Rouge. Auburn's defense has been impressive in nearly every aspect of the game, stopping the run, preventing explosive plays and red zone defense.

Georgia is going through at a surprisingly slow tempo this year, ranking 125 of 130 teams (and last in the SEC in just conference games). While their offense has looked good, they don't have the experience of the schedule that auburn has faced so far and I would give the edge to auburn's defense, especially with the hostile home crowd at Auburn. Both defenses rank in top 20 in yards-per-play allowed as well as red zone TD scoring %. Both offense run the ball frequently (57% of the time for UGA and 60% for Auburn), so the clock should keep rolling a lot in this one.  Great defenses and a running clock would favor a low scoring affair as the Deep South's Oldest Rivalry adds a new chapter.

In a game that mean a lot to both teams, look for the defenses to be ready to go. The offenses will have to work hard for their points. Take the under.

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats have had less than 45 total points scored in every SEC game other than their opener against Florida. Remember, that game had 43 points and as Florida tried to run out the clock with a few seconds left they busted a long TD run. Kentucky has run the ball a bunch all year, and the Wildcats offense has really struggled. Their defense has kept them in games. 

Vanderbilt's offense is absolutely hapless. They are averaging a miserable 3.93 yards per play in SEC play. That is easily last in the conference. In SEC play they have only 13 plays of 20 yards or more all season. The Commodores often get behind and need to try to throw the ball, but their passing game is absolutely awful.

Both of these teams play at a pace far slower than the average team. I would expect an ugly contest here that stays under the total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Troy Trojans have been a really good over team this year. Troy ranks 15th in the nation in tempo. The Trojans are 28th in yards per play on offense as well, so they have been putting up some big numbers. Troy has multiple options on the outside, and they have a veteran signal caller under center.

Texas State ranks 48th in tempo. The Bobcats offense has finally started to click a bit better in recent weeks. There are some good offensive coaches on this staff, and I would expect them to be able to get things going more on the offensive end the rest of this year- and then especially get it going even more next year.

These two teams rank 13th and 6th in the nation in percentage of plays that are a pass. That being the case, there should be a lot of possessions in this game with both teams playing at a fast pace too.

This total is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers defense ranks 10th in the country in yards per play allowed. They likely aren't that good since they have played a weak schedule, but the strength of this Missouri team has been their defense.

Missouri's offense ranks 11th in the SEC in yards per play at 5.01 yards per play. The Tigers only have 37 plays of 20 yards or more this year (97th in the country). This offensive line has allowed 19 sacks, and the Florida defense ranks 5th in the country with 35 sacks so far this year. They'll be in the Missouri backfield in this game.

Florida's offense and Missouri's offense both play at a slightly slower than average pace. Florida has been pass heavy this year, and the strength of the Missouri defense is the secondary.

Florida's defense ranks 24th in yards per play allowed, and that number is skewed from their giving up so much against LSU. Missouri's offense clearly isn't LSU. 

This total has been bet up to a point where I see a good amount of value. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* I view San Diego State as a great under team. They are so consistent in playing low scoring games. They have only played one game all season that has finished higher than 44 points. That's truly amazing this late in the year. 

Both offenses rank in the top half in conference play on percentage of plays that are runs as both run the ball north of 50%  of the time, which means a lot of running clock which is good for the under (SD St running the ball on 60 % of plays in conference games so far).

*3 Star Play Under* The Akron Zips have scored a grand total of 9 points in their last four games. Akron's offense is the worst in the country. The Zips are averaging 3.50 yards per play inside a MAC that is filled with bad defenses.

Eastern Michigan has been a disappointment this year, but they are a big favorite here as they should be. Eastern Michigan is a good passing team, but they can't run the ball. If they get a lead, I wouldn't expect them to have much success running later in the game as they bleed the clock. 

Akron's defense actually ranks 54th best in the country and 4th best in the MAC. They are a respectable unit.

It is set to snow in Akron on Tuesday. Most of the snow will likely be done by the time the game starts, but winds of about 13-15 mph and very cold temperatures will still be around during this contest.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* San Diego State is great at turning games into a rock fight. They are great defensively. They are challenged offensively. They are also well-coached. San Diego State hasn't had a single game finish with anymore than 48 combined points all year. That's truly amazing this deep into the season. They have also had 4 games with 37 points or fewer in them. 

Nevada's offense has been hapless of late. They don't have an answer at the quarterback spot. This team has no identity on offense, and I find it hard to imagine them scoring many at all in this game.

San Diego State is typically a team that doesn't win by margins. They are content to run the ball and use up a bunch of the clock. They should do it again here once in the lead.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears defense has really impressed me this year. Baylor ranks 20th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Baylor already has 26 sacks this year. They have been very good at getting into the opponents backfield. This is an aggressive Bears defense that is likely to cause the TCU questionable offensive line trouble.

TCU has a solid defense too. The Horned Frogs rank 40th in yards per play allowed, but they have played some very good offenses. Gary Patterson is a defensive minded coach who should have this defense ready for this matchup.

Baylor put up some big numbers early in the season against some weak teams. Their offense is decent, but it is a bit overvalued. TCU's offense hasn't been good all season.

Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Early Bird Special* The Penn State Nittany Lions rank first in the country in yards per carry allowed (1.99 ypc allowed). Minnesota runs the ball on nearly 70% of their offensive plays. P.J. Fleck's team will try their best to use up a bunch of clock. They run the ball that often and then play at a bottom five pace. Minnesota will try to keep Penn State's offense off the field here. 

Penn State's offense has a star in Hamler, but the rest of the unit is good and not great. Clifford is up against a very good secondary here. Minnesota is a well-coached team and I would expect Penn State to have trouble picking up big plays. Minnesota is 5th in the nation in least 20 plus yard plays allowed. 

Look for some Big Ten smash mouth football played in Minnesota in what is a huge game for both teams. Both teams enter unbeaten and this is a big test for them.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Oregon secondary hadn't really been tested until the last two games. They failed their test. Washington threw the ball easily on this Oregon secondary. Washington State put up a big number against them as well.

USC has many problems, but they still have some of the best receivers in the country. They also have a good quarterback to get them the ball. I think USC can pick up big plays in the air against Oregon here.

The USC defense is allowing 5.81 yards per play. The Trojans have allowed a whopping 127 plays of 10 yards or more on the season (112th in the country). Oregon's offense is good on the ground and through the air. They should move the ball with ease as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northwestern Wildcats offense has been historically bad this year. Northwestern has played 7 games so far this year. They have scored 10 points or less in five of those games. 

Indiana's defense isn't great, but it has been much better than I expected. The Hoosiers rank 34th in the nation in yards per play allowed. 

Northwestern only has 10 plays of 20 yards or more in 7 games. That is easily worst in the nation. The Wildcats have absolutely no passing game, and the running game isn't very good.

Indiana's offense has slowed their pace drastically this year. The Hoosiers will go up against a very solid Northwestern defense here. The Wildcats rank 44th in yards per play allowed despite playing a very tough schedule.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Oregon State is much better on offense than many realize. Jake Luton has done a nice job under center, and they have a pretty good ground game as well. This offense was quieted down by Cal and Utah recently, but now they go against a very weak defense in Arizona.

Arizona is playing at the fastest tempo of any team in the Pac 12. The Wildcats rank 18th in the nation in yards per play, so offense hasn't been the problem for much of the season. 

Arizona just fired defensive coordinator Marcel Yates, but I don't think there is a quick fix for their defensive woes. The Wildcats are giving up 6.2 yards per play.

Oregon State's defense isn't much better. They are allowing 5.89 yards per play.

Oregon State and Arizona both play quickly, and the offenses have clear advantages in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Utes play at the 129th pace in the country out of 130 teams. The Utes also run the ball on 65% of their offensive plays. Utah is a grind it out team. They will use their offensive line to try to wear you down a little bit at a time over the course of the game. 

Washington isn't likely to get much at all on the ground in this one. Utah is second in the country in yards per carry allowed. The Huskies offense has been inconsistent this season. I wouldn't expect them to be able to consistently put together good drives against this elite Utah defense. 

Washington also plays slowly. The Huskies rank 92nd in the country in pace of play. 

The Huskies defense has been much better in recent seasons at home, and I think they'll stay in this game. Utah is the better team though and I think they dictate the flow of this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas Razorbacks continue to push the tempo. Arkansas has played a lot of good defenses so far this year. The Razorbacks have faced Auburn and Alabama in the last two weeks. Those defenses will shut a lot of offenses down. 

Arkansas isn't good offensively, but Mississippi State is really bad on defense. The Bulldogs were great on defense last year, but they had to replace nearly everyone- and it hasn't gone well. Mississippi State ranks 111th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Mississippi State has already played three games that finished with a total of 66 or higher. Two of their last four games finished at 79 points total.

These are the 12th and 13th ranked defenses in the SEC. Expect the two offenses to have quite a bit of success.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Colorado State's offense has been far better than most people realize this year. Patrick O'Brien is quietly dominating at quarterback for the Rams. He has completed 61% of his passes and has 1,716 yards despite starting the season on the bench. The Rams have 10 plays of 60 yards or more this season, which is best in the nation. 

What is UNLV's defensive weakness? They can't keep the opposition in front of them. UNLV has been beaten deep many times this year. The Rebels have allowed 27 plays of 30 yards or more already this season (127th in the country). 

UNLV has played several teams who consistently have low scoring games this year, and that has skewed their overall point totals down. They have already played Northwestern, Wyoming (they had a high scoring game here), Vanderbilt, and San Diego State.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Charlotte's offense has been excellent this year. The new coaching staff deserves all kinds of credit. Charlotte was a bottom ten offense in the country for many years in a row. This year, Charlotte ranks 23rd in the country in yards per play. The 49ers have an impressive 48 plays of 20 yards or more already this year. 

MTSU has found a pretty good quarterback in Asher O'Hara. The Blue Raiders running game has gotten going in a big way the last couple games. MTSU is averaging 5.47 yards per carry (12th in the nation). The Blue Raiders can do enough through the air to keep teams honest.

Both of these defenses are really weak. MTSU ranks 103rd in the nation in yards per play allowed. Charlotte ranks 116th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Look for a lot of big plays both ways here.

Take the over.