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Basketball Archive | |||||||
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
04-01-09 | Charlotte Bobcats +9 v. Boston Celtics | 109-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
3* SUREFIRE on Bobcats +9
The Bobcats are going after the final playoff spot in the East hard and I like their chances tonight against a Boston team playing without KG and Leon Powe. The Bobcats just beat the Lakers last night and that win is going to give them an added boost of confidence. Charlotte has played its best basketball against the best teams and already has a win over the Celtics this season when Boston was at full strength. Charlotte is getting too many. Take the points. |
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03-31-09 | Atlanta Hawks v. Philadelphia 76ers -1.5 | 85-98 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
3* SUREFIRE on 76ers -1.5
Expect a letdown from the Hawks tonight after a big win over the Lakers as they go out on the road against a hungry 76ers team off back-to-back defeats. The 76ers have already dropped one double digit defeat on the Hawks this season so this system becomes significant as play against underdogs (ATLANTA) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a home win by 10 points or more are 123-76 ATS since 1996. Lay the number. |
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03-31-09 | Los Angeles Lakers -5.5 v. Charlotte Bobcats | 84-94 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA REVENGE GAME OF THE WEEK on Lakers -5.5
After losing by 10 points to the Hawks and only scoring 76 points, expect LA to bury the Bobcats tonight as it fights with Cleveland for home court advantage throughout the playoffs. Charlotte beat LA by 7 in Tinsel Town earlier this season so the Lakers will be out for additional revenge tonight. The Lakers are 9-1 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season this season, winning these games by 11 points on average. Lay the number. |
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03-31-09 | Baylor v. San Diego State UNDER 136 | Top | 76-62 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NIT TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Baylor/SDSU UNDER 136
SDSU is one of the best defensive teams in the nation, allowing just 59.2 ppg. Because of its "D", SDSU is 11-3 UNDER in its last 14 games, holding each of its last 8 opponents to 66 or fewer points and 6 of its last 8 to 59 or fewer. Baylor is 11-3 UNDER its last 14 as well. Despite this, this public is on the over, right where the books want it so there's no question we are on the right side here. SDSU is 20-5 UNDER off a home win over the last 2 seasons, with the score totaling 124.5 points in these spots. SDSU is also 9-2 UNDER in non-conference games this season, with the score totaling 124 points in these contests. Pound the Under! |
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03-30-09 | Milwaukee Bucks v. New Jersey Nets -4.5 | Top | 107-78 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy 31-0 ATS NBA Double Digit Blood Bath on Nets -4.5
There's no question about it, the Bucks have packed it in for the 2008-09 season, dropping 10 of their last 12 SU and 11 of their last 12 ATS. To add insult to injury, Milwaukee is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 meetings in New Jersey and 3-13 ATS in the last 16 meetings overall. Milwaukee has been miserable away from home this season at just 11-27. The Bucks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or less. I like the Nets to bounce back strong after a very disappointing loss to Minnesota. Lay the points! |
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03-29-09 | San Antonio Spurs v. New Orleans Hornets OVER 177.5 | Top | 86-90 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
5* NBA "TOTAL" Blowout of the Month on Spurs/Hornets OVER 177.5
Both of these teams are solid defensively so that drives this number down. Plus, the Hornets have gone under in 8 straight games so that drives the number down even more. New Orleans has lost back-to-back games and it knows it will need to speed up the tempo to beat the Spurs tonight. With the Spurs back at full strength with Ginobli back in the lineup, I expect to see a better San Antonio offensive as well. The Over is 8-1 in Spurs last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 4-0 in Spurs last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Also, plays over on teams where the total is between 170 and 179.5 points in a game involving two average defensive teams (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games are 94-38 (71.2%) since 1996. Bet the Over! |
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03-29-09 | Oklahoma v. North Carolina -7 | 60-72 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
4* Major Elite Eight BLOOD BATH on UNC -7
The Tar Heels struggled without Lawson in the lineup, beating VA Tech by just 3 points and then losing to FSU in the ACC tournament. Since his return, the Heels have put together a pair of dominant wins over LSU and Gonzaga. Truthfully, Gonzaga matched up better on paper than the Sooners as far as being able to run with the Heels so this one has the potential to get ugly. UNC was taken out in the Final Four a season ago and this team will not be denied getting back there for a chance at a national title. Experience will prove huge for the Heels today. The Tar Heels are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. Lay the number! |
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03-28-09 | Memphis Grizzlies +13 v. Portland Trail Blazers | 66-86 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
3* Late Night NBA Bailout on Grizzlies +13
Off a huge blowout win over the Suns and with Utah up next in a big division game, expect the Blazers to get caught overlooking the Grizzlies tonight. Memphis did just play last night, but it got a big win over the Kings and any win is a huge confidence booster for this team. This season, Memphis has played Portland to 4 and 11 point games so I have no doubt the Grizzlies can keep this one within the number as well. Memphis is 17-5 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons, losing by just 1.0 points in these games. Take the points! |
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03-28-09 | New York Knicks v. Charlotte Bobcats -6.5 | 85-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA Double Digit BLOOD BATH on Bobcats -6.5
NY is just 10-24 on the road all season and stands no chance tonight playing back-to-back in a letdown spot after an upset win over the Hornets. Charlotte played last night as well, beating Philly on the road, but expect no letdown from the Bobcats as they continue to fight for the final playoff spot. The Bobcats are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Atlantic. We'll lay the points. |
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03-28-09 | Villanova v. Pittsburgh -2 | Top | 78-76 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Elite 8 Game of the Year on Pitt -2
Pitt is overdue to put a complete game together in this tournament and I have a strong feeling Villanova will bring the best out of the Panthers. Pitt went down to Nova during the regular season in a game where DeJuan Blair was not very effective. Expect Blair to have a huge game and for the Panthers to roll in this revenge spot. The Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 20 points, but here's the clincher. Pitt is 8-1 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) this season, winning in these spots by 12ppg. Lay the number. |
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03-27-09 | Kansas v. Michigan State -1 | Top | 62-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Sweet 16 REVENGER on Michigan State -1
Outside of Collins and Aldrich, the Jayhawks are young and inexperienced. They rely heavily on Collins to score points and there is no way that Tom Izzo is going to let one guy beat them. Big Ten Player of the Year Kalin Lucas will put a lot or pressure on Collins both on offense and on defense. That matchup will likely be a wash, but the Spartans have the better supporting cast and therefore have the edge. Michigan State crushed Kansas by 13 points in January in a game that wasn't even as close as the final score indicated. That game was at Michigan State but the Spartans have arguable played better away from home this season with a 16-3 mark outside East Lansing. That is not the case for Kansas, which is just 9-7 when playing away from home this season. Kansas is the reigning national champ and that puts a target on its back that I don't believe this team is capable of defending against a high caliber opponent like Michigan State. Plays against neutral court teams as an underdog in a game involving two good defensive teams (63-67 PPG), after a combined score of 110 points or less are 33-9 ATS since 1997. Michigan State is a perfect 6-0 ATS against Big 12 conference opponents over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average score of 77.2 to 70.0. Take the Spartans |
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03-27-09 | Syracuse +1 v. Oklahoma | 71-84 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 19 m | Show | |
3* SUREFIRE on Syracuse +1
If it weren't for injuries, the Orange would have been right in the mix for a Big East title this season. They are now healthy and have played down the stretch like we expected them to play all year, winning 9 of their last 10 games. I really like Cuse in this one because I see its patented 2-3 zone creating major problems for the Sooners. It will force OU to beat the Orange from the perimeter and I don't see that happening as the Sooners have rode on the back of Blake Griffin all season. One of the only ways to beat the Orange is to force them to turn the ball over, but OU is not good in that department. Cuse is 8-1 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season, winning these matchups by an average score of 84.2 to 68.4. Also, you have to like that Cuse is is 7-1 ATS in all tournament games this season. I'm taking Boeheim's boys. |
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03-27-09 | Charlotte Bobcats +5.5 v. Philadelphia 76ers | 100-95 | Win | 101 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
4* Major Friday Night NBA BEST BET on Bobcats +5.5
The Bobcats have had a day to regroup after losing to lowly Washington and they'll be ready to go tonight. Every game from here on out is a big one with the Cats trying to play their way into the postseason. The Bobcats are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs. Eastern Conference, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Atlantic, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. The 76ers are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games, 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a losing SU record, and 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. We'll take the points. |
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03-26-09 | Missouri v. Memphis -4.5 | 102-91 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
4* Major Big Dance Bailout Blowout on Memphis -4.5
The old saying "teams who press don't like to be pressed" will ring true here as Memphis has the better pressing defense and will make life miserable for Mizzou's young guards. You can say that Mizzou's turnover numbers look pretty good, but this is what Memphis' defense does to those teams. Memphis is 6-0 ATS in road games versus excellent ball handling teams - committing <=12 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average score of 75.7 to 60.2. Memphis in a rout! |
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03-26-09 | Purdue v. Connecticut UNDER 134.5 | 60-72 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
4* Major NCAA Tournament TOTY on Purdue/UConn UNDER 134.5
UConn has had a cake walk in the first two rounds and its high point production has really raised this number up. Purdue is one of the elite defensive teams in the nation, allowing only 59.4 ppg. Both teams prefer to play in the half court on offense as well. The pace of this game and a pair of exceptional defense teams will see the under prevail here. Plays Under - Neutral court teams against the total (CONNECTICUT) - good defensive team - allowing <=64 points/game on the season, after scoring 80 points or more 2 straight games are 82-43 since 1997 and Plays Under - Neutral court teams against the total (CONNECTICUT) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG, after scoring 80 points or more 2 straight games are 123-69 since 1997. Pound the Under! |
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03-26-09 | Purdue +7 v. Connecticut | Top | 60-72 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy 2009 NCAA Tournament GOTY on Purdue +7
The public has fallen into the UConn trap like you wouldn't believe here after watching the Huskies dominate in the first 2 rounds. We won't get caught in the same trap. If Purdue had been healthy all season, you likely would have seen this team win the Big Ten. The biggest reason why Purdue covers is because it is exceptional on defense, allowing only 59.4 ppg. History tells us to fade UConn after 2 big wins as it is just 3-13 ATS in road games after 2 straight blowout wins by 20 points or more since 1997, winning by just 3ppg on average in these spots. Purdue won't go away in this one and has an excellent opportunity to pull off the shocking upset. NCAA Tourney GOTY - Good Luck! |
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03-25-09 | Denver Nuggets +4.5 v. New Orleans Hornets | 101-88 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA Deadly Dog of the Week on Nuggets +4.5
The Hornets are being overvalued tonight. I'll take the points with the better team here. The Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600 while the Hornets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. New Orleans is not playing as well as the wins and losses indicate as they have had a very soft schedule of late. Denver wins this one outright! |
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03-25-09 | Boston Celtics +3.5 v. Orlando Magic | 82-84 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
3* NBA Playoffs Preview on Celtics +3.5
The Celtics have endured some injury problems but they are getting healthier. I believe Boston is still the better team in this matchup and they will be out for revenge after losing by 7 at home to the Magic earlier this month. Boston is 12-3 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons and 14-4 ATS in road games revenging a straight up loss vs. an opponent as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. The Magic are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or less. Take Boston. |
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03-25-09 | Kentucky v. Notre Dame -2.5 | Top | 67-77 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NIT Double Digit Blood Bath on Notre Dame -2.5
I'll take the better team at home laying a small number in this one. Notre Dame is 14-3 at home this season with all 3 of those losses coming to teams who made the big dance. Kentucky obviously did not make the field of 64 and you will see first hand how good the Big East is compared to the SEC in this matchup. The Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Fighting Irish are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss. After getting a gut check with a tight one against New Mexico, the Irish will be ready to go tonight. They also have a big edge in terms of game prep time. All signs point to a win and cover for Notre Dame and I don't think it will be close! |
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03-24-09 | Houston Rockets v. Utah Jazz -5.5 | 86-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA Game of the Night on Jazz -5.5
The Jazz were an 8.5-point favorite when they played the Rockets at home 20 days ago. The Jazz won that game by 7 points. With the number now set 3 points lower, I'll jump all over the Jazz here against a Rockets team coming off a highly emotional win against rival San Antonio. Utah is 18-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average score of 106.4 to 95.5 in these spots. We'll lay the points with the Jazz at home. |
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03-24-09 | Golden State Warriors v. San Antonio Spurs -10.5 | 106-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
3* SUREFIRE on San Antonio Spurs -10.5
I expect the Spurs to take out their frustration over back-to-back losses out of the Warriors tonight. Golden State is a terrible 6-29 on the road this season, allowing 111.9 ppg in these contests. The Spurs are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS at home against the Warriors the last 3 seasons, which includes a 123-88 win at home earlier this season. The Warriors are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Favorite is 7-0-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Home team is 18-6-1 ATS in the last 25 meetings. The Warriors are 3-13 ATS in the last 16 meetings in San Antonio. Bet San Antonio in this bounce back spot. |
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03-24-09 | Baylor +3.5 v. Auburn | Top | 74-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NIT MONSTER BEST BET on Baylor +3.5
Baylor hugely underachieved this season but they are taking full advantage of the opportunity to play postseason basketball, even if it isn't in the Big Dance. After getting to the Big 12 Title Game, the Bears have taken down Georgetown and Virginia Tech - two teams better than Auburn. We'll gladly take them catching points here. Baylor is 13-4 ATS in road tournament games over the last 3 seasons, winning in these spots by an average of 3.2 ppg. The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. I strongly believe that Baylor is the better team and will prevail tonight. |
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03-23-09 | Davidson v. St Mary's CA -4.5 | Top | 68-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
5* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Mary's -4.5
The Gaels really feel like they were snubbed by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee and they went out and proved it in round one by thumping Washington State. The Gaels are a better team than Davidson and Curry may not even be the best player on the floor as Patty Mills is getting healthier and healthier for the Gaels. He will be a handful for the Wildcats tonight and the Gaels also have a huge advantage on the interior. St. Mary's is 14-1 at home this season and I like them to keep getting it done on their home floor tonight. The Gaels are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. Lay the number. |
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03-23-09 | Vermont v. Oregon State UNDER 127.5 | 70-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
4* Major CBI Tourney Total of the Year on Vermont/Oregon St UNDER 127.5
Odds makers have made a huge mistake with this line as Oregon State is an unders machine with its Princeton style offense. Oregon State held a high powered Houston offense to just 45 points in round 1. Vermont is 7-0 UNDER in March games since 1997. The Under is 7-0 in Beavers last 7 home games and 6-0 in home games after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season. Bet the Under. |
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03-23-09 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Atlanta Hawks -11.5 | 97-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
4* Major Monday Night NBA BEST BET on Hawks -11.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers ended Atlanta's 7 game winning streak and now the Hawks will be out for blood against a Timberwolves team which just played yesterday. Because of the injuries to key players, the Wolves have had to live and die by the 3 and that will not treat them well tonight as Atlanta is 8-0 ATS in home games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season. The Timberwolves are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings. The Hawks are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games, 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. Western Conference. Lay the points. |
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03-22-09 | Marquette +4.5 v. Missouri | Top | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NCAA Tournament Public Massacre on Marquette +4.5
Marquette escaped round 1 against an inferior Utah State team and will have a heightened sense of focus and determination because of it. This veteran Marquette squad is getting no respect against a Missouri team which is relatively new to winning. You hear a lot of talk about Missouri's press, but I really wasn't that impressed with it. I like the strong Marquette backcourt to eat the Tigers alive. The Tigers are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite of 6.5 or less. The Golden Eagles are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games and 6-0 ATS in neutral court games where the total is 145 to 149.5 over the last 3 seasons. Marquette surprises the public here! |
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03-22-09 | Oklahoma State v. Pittsburgh -8 | 76-84 | Push | 0 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
4* Major Double Digit Blood Bath on Pitt -8
We are 2-for-2 on these double digit blood bath plays in the dance and I like our chances of getting to 3-0 here. Here's the key: Okie State finds itself in a letdown spot following a highly emotional win while the Panthers will be out for blood following a poor first round performance. Pitt is 14-6 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season, winning by an average score of 75.8 to 63.3. Lay the number. |
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03-22-09 | Wisconsin v. Xavier -3.5 | 49-60 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
3* SUREFIRE on Xavier -3.5
This Xavier team made a deep run last season and that experience gets it into the Sweet 16 against the young Badgers. Wisconsin is just 2-10 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games this season. Wisconsin had to make a big comeback by shooting lights out to beat FSU and I don't see them being able to go the distance with a more balanced Xavier squad. |
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03-21-09 | New York Knicks v. Orlando Magic -12 | 103-110 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
4* Major Saturday Night NBA Double Digit Blood Bath on Magic -12
The Knicks have been slaughtered each of their last 2 games and they have a fresh Magic team waiting for them tonight. The Magic have all the motivation in the world to put the hurt on NY here as they chase Boston for the second best mark in the East, which would give them home court if they were to meet in the playoffs. Orlando is 14-3 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season. We'll lay the points. |
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03-21-09 | Purdue +1.5 v. Washington | Top | 76-74 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NCAA Tourney REVENGE GOTY on Purdue +1.5
We are 2-for-2 on these plays in the NCAA Tournament thus far and I like our chances of staying perfect with this beauty. I don't care if Washington is playing in its own backyard. Purdue is the better team in this matchup on any floor. It is finally healthy and it is peaking at the right time. A little bit of a letdown was inevitable in round one after the high that comes from winning the Big Ten Tourney. We saw it from Mississippi State in its game against Washington. Purdue first round scare serves as a wake up call and you better believe the Boilers will be ready to show the Pac-10 champs what the Big Ten is all about. Washington is a young team, especially at the crucial guard spots, and this will be its downfall against a Purdue club that will not accept going home in the second round for a second straight year. Defense wins big games and Purdue has the hands down better defense, allowing just 59.0 ppg to Washington's 69.3. Lastly, Purdue is 15-6 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons, winning in these spots by an average of 8.0 ppg. Take Purdue! |
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03-21-09 | Maryland v. Memphis UNDER 132 | 70-89 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
4* Major NCAA Tourney "TOTAL" BLOWOUT on Maryland/Memphis UNDER 132
Memphis is one of the best defensive teams in the country and after allowing Northridge to put 70 points on them in round one, expect the Tigers to put the clamps down today. Maryland is 15-6 UNDER in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons. Memphis is 17-6 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season and 8-1 UNDER in road games versus very good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=39% over the last 3 seasons. Bet the under here as we see a defensive battle to get into the Sweet 16. |
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03-20-09 | Wisconsin v. Florida State -2.5 | Top | 61-59 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 44 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy First Rd GOTY on FSU -2.5
Wisconsin is getting way too much respect with this line. The Badgers have really struggled when playing away from home. They have lost 6 of their last 8 road games and they get an FSU team playing very confident basketball behind one of the best player in the ACC in Toney Douglas. FSU is the better team playing the better basketball and we will jump all over the Noles in this spot. Here's the key: Wisconsin is just 1-9 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games this season. The Badgers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Seminoles are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS loss and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss. All Noles here. |
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03-20-09 | Robert Morris v. Michigan State -16.5 | 62-77 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
3* SUREFIRE on Michigan State -16.5
After bowing out early in the Big Ten Tourney, I expect the Spartans to come out strong in this one. Here's the key: Michigan State was embarrassed by Ohio State in the Big Ten Conference Tournament and it is 9-0 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons, exploding to win by 17.1 ppg on average in these spots. Lay the points. |
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03-20-09 | Minnesota Timberwolves +11.5 v. Houston Rockets | 88-107 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
3* NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Timberwolves +11.5
I like the Wolves to give the Rockets a run for their money tonight with a chance to win this game so I will take the points. Houston has a revenge game with the Spurs on deck so I expect them to be looking ahead here while the Wolves are playing with triple revenge against Houston this season so they will be playing to avoid being swept. The Timberwolves are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater, 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games, and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Rockets are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 11.0 or greater and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games. Rockets are overvalued. Take the points! |
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03-20-09 | Morehead St. v. Louisville -20.5 | 54-74 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
3* SUREFIRE on Louisville -20.5
Louisville already owns a 38-point win over Morehead State this season. While it is to Morehead's benefit having already seen the Cards, I don't expect to see an 18 point drop off in win margin today, especially after Louisville watched the other No. 1 seeds roll. Lay the points. |
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03-20-09 | Temple v. Arizona State -5.5 | 57-66 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
4* Major Double Digit Blood Bath on ASU -5.5
This one looks very similar to yesterday's win with Washington except that I'm expecting an even bigger margin of victory here. Expect to see ASU playing with a lot of passion here after going down in the Pac-10 Tourney Final. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ARIZONA ST) - team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a second tier conference, off a loss against a conference rival are 48-18 ATS since 1997. Lay the points! |
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03-19-09 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 185.5 | 92-97 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA on TNT Prime Time Total on Blazers/Cavs UNDER 185.5
I would already expect a defensive battle in this one, but with Portland wearing itself out last night, I like the Under even more. Plain and simple, plays under on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (PORTLAND) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 58-28 under the last 5 seasons. Bet the Under. |
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03-19-09 | Mississippi State v. Washington -6 | 58-71 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show | |
4* Major Double Digit Blood Bath on Washington -6
Washington has been money in bounce back spots this season so the combination of them losing in the Pac-10 Tourney and playing close to home in Portland should be a deadly one here. Washington is 7-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season, winning by an average score of 76.7 to 65.7 in these spots. Lay the points. |
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03-19-09 | Tenn Chattanooga +21 v. Connecticut | Top | 47-103 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NCAA Tournament MONSTER BEST BET on Tennessee Chat +21
Of all the No. 1 seeds, UConn gets the toughest draw as far as opponent and where it must play. UConn has not been very explosive offensively down the home stretch and you'll see this one stay well within the number. How about this: UConn is just 3-12 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 12.5 or more points since 1997, 0-7 ATS in March road games over the last 3 seasons, and 2-10 ATS in first round tournament games since 1997. Take the points! |
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03-19-09 | Radford v. North Carolina -25 | 58-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
3* SUREFIRE on North Carolina -25
It really doesn't matter if Lawson is on the floor for this one as the Heels will be out for blood following a loss in the ACC Tourney. If Lawson doesn't play, they will be out to send a message that they can bury teams without him. They did not spare Mt. St.Mary's a season ago, thumping them by 39, and I expect another monster blowout here. UNC is 21-8 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons and 16-6 ATS versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons. Lay the points. |
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03-18-09 | Houston v. Oregon State +1.5 | 45-49 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
4* Major CBB Steal of the Week on Oregon State +1.5
The Beavers are an absolute steal at home catching points tonight against a Houston team which hasn't beaten anybody on the road all season. Houston is 0-7 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season, losing by an average of 10.7 ppg in these spots. That's the key as Oregon State's 1-3-1 defense will give a Houston team which doesn't shoot it particularly well from the perimeter fits tonight. |
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03-18-09 | Chicago Bulls v. Oklahoma City Thunder -2 | Top | 103-96 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA DOUBLE DIGIT BLOOD BATH on Thunder -2
With the Bulls coming from behind to beat the Celtics last night, I don't think they'll have anything left when they head out on the road to face a Thunder team that has won 4 straight at home. And it's not as if the Thunder has just been beating powder puffs. 3 of those 4 wins are against quality opponents - the likes of Dallas, Philly, and San Antonio. The Bulls are just 10-26 on the road this season and in a terrible letdown spot. I like the Thunder by double digits! |
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03-18-09 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Indiana Pacers +2 | 95-85 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
3* NBA DOG OF THE NIGHT on Pacers +2
Hungry for a win, I like the Pacers to get the job done against a Blazers team that has struggled on the road all season. With Cleveland tomorrow night, I think you'll see the Blazers get caught looking right past the Pacers. Indiana has been no push over at home at 19-12 this season. The Trail Blazers are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Indiana and 1-10 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take the Pacers. |
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03-17-09 | Boston Celtics v. Chicago Bulls +2.5 | 121-127 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
3* NBA Public Massacre on Bulls +2.5
The Celtics have lost 8 of their last 9 ATS and are really struggling without KG. Chicago is 20-11 at home this season and sniffing the playoffs. It will get up for this one like you haven't seen before this year. The Bulls are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Celtics are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing SU record, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. We'll take this 24-0 ATS Angle to the bank! |
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03-17-09 | George Mason v. Penn State -6 | Top | 73-77 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NIT BLOWOUT OF THE YEAR on Penn State -6
Penn State is 15-4 at home this season and while the Lions wanted to be dancing, they're not about to roll over in front of their home fans against George Mason tonight. Here's the Key: The Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Nittany Lions are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 home games and 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite. The game I look to is when GM was beaten by 13 at Creighton as an 8-point dog on Feb. 21. Penn State is better than Creighton and laying less points on its home floor. We'll take the Lions in a rout. |
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03-17-09 | Sacramento Kings +12 v. Atlanta Hawks | 97-119 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA Underdog of the Month on Kings +12
Off a blowout win over the Blazers and with a big game against the Mavs coming up, the Hawks have no incentive to blowout a Kings team that is quietly playing very well right now. The Kings are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games. They have a win over Denver and a 3-point loss to Cleveland during the stretch. The Hawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. the NBA Pacific. The Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Odds makers have horribly undervalued the Kings here and they will keep this one within single digits. |
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03-16-09 | Houston Rockets v. New Orleans Hornets -3.5 | Top | 95-84 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Western Conference GOTY on Hornets -3.5
With a chance to move into second place in the NBA Southwest to creep that much closer to San Antonio, I like the Hornets to get the job done here. The Hornets return home from a 4-game road trip out for blood after getting crushed 79-97 by the Bulls. This matchup is all about home court as both teams have 9-point wins at home this season. In fact, the Home team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings and New Orleans is 4-1 SU and ATS at home against Houston the last 3 seasons. The Rockets are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings overall and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. the NBA Southwest. The Hornets are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or less. New Orleans is 9-0 ATS in home games in March over the last 2 seasons and 19-6 ATS after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Lay the points! |
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03-15-09 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Atlanta Hawks -4.5 | Top | 80-98 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK on Hawks -4.5
The Hawks are rolling having won 4 in a row and they are an outstanding 24-7 in home games this season. The Blazers are only 13-18 away from home and have dropped 6 of their last 7 road games. The Hawks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning SU record, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game, and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. The Trail Blazers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Lay the points. |
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03-15-09 | Mississippi State v. Tennessee -5 | 64-61 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
4* Major SEC Championship Game DAGGER on Tennessee -5
This is the end of the road for Mississippi State as it will endure a big letdown after knocking off No. 1 seed LSU. Tennessee is clicking like many expected it would all season long. The Volunteers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as a favorite and the Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings. We'll lay the points. |
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03-14-09 | San Antonio Spurs +2.5 v. Houston Rockets | 88-85 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
3* SUREFIRE on Spurs +2.5
Off a loss a loss to the Lakers, I look for a fresher Spurs team to bounce back tonight against a Rockets team which just played in Charlotte last night and then had to travel back home. Also, the Spurs will be out to avenge an embarrassing 84-103 loss when they visited here earlier in the season. The rest factor is crucial as Houston is just 1-8 ATS in home games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season. Another thing to look at is how solid the Spurs have been on the road, going 20-12 SU and 18-13 ATS this season. The Spurs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. We'll bet San Antonio in this one. |
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03-14-09 | Arizona State -1.5 v. USC | 63-66 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
4* Major Pac-10 Championship Game BLOOD BATH on ASU -1.5
Shortened writeups to get these out to your plenty early fellas and ladies. I see a big letdown for USC after winning against its biggest rival. ASU is rolling and will roll to the conference tourney title tonight. Here's the key: USC is 1-13 ATS off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog since 1997. Lay the number. |
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03-14-09 | Purdue -3.5 v. Illinois | Top | 66-56 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy 2009 Conference Tournament GOTY on Purdue -3.5
Shortened writeups to get these out plenty early fellas and ladies. Plain and simple; the Illini took both regular season meetings in this matchup and now it's time for Purdue to pay them back. Purdue is 14-4 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average of 8.2 ppg in these spots. Lay the number. |
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03-13-09 | Dallas Mavericks v. Golden State Warriors -1 | 110-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA BAILOUT GOTM on Warriors -1
With Dallas looking ahead to the Lakers, look for the Warriors to jump up and bite the Mavs tonight. Golden State is 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS at home against the Mavs the last 3 seasons as they have had a terrible time with Golden State's uptempo offense. The Home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Mavericks are 2-12-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings in Golden State and 7-22-1 ATS in the last 30 meetings. All Warriors here! |
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03-13-09 | Penn State v. Purdue -7 | Top | 65-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
5* Big Ten Conference Tournament GOTY on Purdue -7
The Boilermakers finished tied for second in the Big Ten this season, but it was still a disappointing season by their standards as they had their sights set on a conference title. Here's their chance to make up for it. Purdue is the better team in this matchup and that fact that they lost to Penn State once this season will not allow the Boilermakers to overlook the Nittany Lions. Purdue won by 14 points as a 10.5-point favorite in their home revenge game against Penn State last month and I like the Boilermakers laying just 7 points here in what will basically be a home game with plenty of Purdue fans in Indianapolis. Purdue lost its last 2 regular season games and that will fuel the fire tonight as well. Purdue is 9-0 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 74.1 to 57.4. Pound Purdue! |
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03-13-09 | Maryland +6.5 v. Wake Forest | 75-64 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
4* Major ACC Tourney Quarterfinal BEST BET on Maryland +6.5
Maryland played Wake to a 2-point game just 10 days ago and this would serve as another resume boosting win for the Terps. The Demon Deacons are just 6-21 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games. I'll take a hungry Maryland team that wants to make absolutely sure it is not on the bubble with a big win over Wake. |
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03-12-09 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Phoenix Suns +5 | 119-111 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA on TNT BEST BET on Suns +5
The Suns have now lost 5 straight and are seeing their playoff hopes slip away. They can't afford to drop another game tonight so we can expect to see maximum effort from this team. The public is all over the Cavs and that only makes me like Phoenix more tonight as Cleveland has lost each of its last 2 ATS on the road. The Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Phoenix and the Home team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. The Cavaliers are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games. The Suns are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games. I really like the Suns to pull off the upset tonight so I'll take the points. |
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03-12-09 | Syracuse +5 v. Connecticut | 127-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
3* Big East Tourney BLOOD BATH on Syracuse +5
I've said it before and I'll say it again, UConn is not the same team without Dyson. The Cuse lost on the road by 14 against UConn during the season but MSG is their building and they are playing very confident basketball with 5 straight wins, including a cruiser against Seton Hall last night. I like a confident Syracuse team to hit UConn in the mouth here. Plays on neutral court teams as an underdog (SYRACUSE) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season are 45-18 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the points. |
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03-12-09 | Virginia v. Boston College -4.5 | Top | 63-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy ACC Tournament GOTY on Boston College -4.5
BC is more than likely dancing, but there's no way it is going to let a first round loss to lowly Virginia give the committee any reason to screw it over or give it a bad seed. The Eagles won by 10 points on the road against the Cavs this season and I like them to bury Virginia today. This BC team felt like it was one of the elite squads in the ACC this season but had a couple slip ups down the stretch to cost it a first round bye. You won't see one today against a Virginia side that is only 1-9 when playing away from home this season. |
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03-11-09 | Los Angeles Lakers +2 v. Houston Rockets | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
3* SUREFIRE on Lakers +2
This is a statement game for the Lakers after getting crushed by Portland last time out. LA has now lost its last 3 road games and this is a situation where Kobe puts the team on his back and grinds out a "W". Not having Odom in the lineup doesn't affect the Lakers at all tonight as he is usually non-existent in physical games anyhow. Look for LA to get out in transition to take Yao out of the action as much as possible. The Lakers are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Houston and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Plays on road teams (LA LAKERS) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 31-10 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take LA! |
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03-11-09 | New York Knicks v. Detroit Pistons UNDER 206.5 | Top | 116-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA Super System Play of the Month on Knicks/Pistons UNDER 206.5
The Knicks just played a tough, emotionally draining triple revenge game last night so it is going to be hard for them to run all over a very good defensive Pistons team which will be out for some revenge against them. Detroit is 10-0 Under revenging a straight up loss vs. an opponent as a favorite this season. Detroit is also 17-5 Under revenging a loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. When it comes time for revenge the Pistons turn up the intensity on defense. The Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings, 4-0 in Pistons last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 and 4-0 in Pistons last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Take the Under! |
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03-11-09 | Massachusetts v. Duquesne -2 | 81-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
4* Major Conference Tournament Game of the Night on Duquesne -2
Duquesne crushed UMass 94-77 on the road during the regular season and I look for the Dukes to run up the score again in this neutral court battle. Duquesne is confident that it has a team capable of making it to the championship game as it beat Xavier and played all other top contenders right down to the wire, including Rhode Island, who will be waiting for the Dukes in round 2. There's no way that Duquesne misses out on a chance to pay the Rams back for a 2-point loss just 10 days ago. The Dukes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss. Losing to Dayton in the season finale gets the Dukes refocused and gives them the motivation to crush the Minutemen. Bet the Dukes. |
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03-10-09 | New York Knicks +3.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 120-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy MONSTER BEST BET on Knicks +3.5
The Knicks have been dominated by the Bucks this season, losing all 3 meetings with the last 2 coming by double digits. There's no doubt that the Knicks will be motivated by those defeats against a Bucks team which will no longer have Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut in the lineup. The Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and the Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Bucks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite while the Knicks are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games as a road underdog. Lastly, NY is 18-6 ATS revenging a home blowout loss vs. an opponent of 20 points or more since 1996, winning these games by an average score of 97.5 to 96.0. Knicks win outright tonight! |
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03-10-09 | Princeton v. Pennsylvania UNDER 117.5 | 59-56 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
3* Total of the Night on Princeton/Penn UNDER 117.5
Princeton is 10-3 UNDER against conference opponents this season with the average score totaling 112.7 points in these games. 9 of Princeton's last 11 games have gone under and 6 of Penn's last 7 have gone under. Princeton dictates the tempo in every game it plays because it is so disciplined with its half court sets. The Ivy League has been an unders machine and we will continue to ride it. |
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03-10-09 | Northern Illinois v. Kent State -12 | 61-64 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
4* Major Early Blowout on Kent State -12
Kent State is a team on the rise and I like the Golden Flashes to crush the Huskies today. The Huskies have been terrible on any court but their own this season and I expect this trend to continue. NIU is 0-8 ATS in road games against conference opponents this season, losing by an average score of 54.6 to 72.5 in these spots. Lay the points! |
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03-09-09 | South Alabama v. Arkansas Little Rock -2 | 54-44 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
4* Major Conference Tourney BLOOD BATH on Arkansas Little Rock -2
There's just too much at stake for the Trojans to go down here in what is basically a home game. Little Rock is 8-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. S. Bama is 4-11 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Lastly, plays on any team off 2 no-covers where they won straight up as a favorite, playing their 2nd road game in 3 days are 35-11 ATS the last 5 seasons. This is where the Trojans really see the prize and kick things in high gear. |
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03-09-09 | Houston Rockets v. Denver Nuggets -3.5 | 97-95 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
3* SUREFIRE on Nuggets -3.5
We took the Nuggets in a good spot last night, but it was a sad performance for the Nugs as they were handled by the Kings. Coming off one of their worst defeats of the season, in terms of how they played in relation to the importance of the game, puts Denver in an even better spot tonight against a Rockets team that has really struggled away from home, losing 5 of its last 6. Denver sees its name outside of first place today and that is going to really get this team going tonight as it knows it is in for a battle the rest of the way out. Denver returns home after 2 consecutive road games and this situation has been a very profitable one. Off back-to-back road games, the Nuggets exploded to a 16-point win at home over Portland last Thursday and we were all over it. In fact, Denver is 24-9 ATS after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons. Houston is just 4-15 ATS in road games off 2 or more consecutive home wins over the last 3 seasons. We'll lay the points. |
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03-09-09 | Washington Wizards +4 v. Minnesota Timberwolves | 110-99 | Win | 100 | 7 h 60 m | Show | |
3* SUREFIRE on Wizards +4
The Wizards will get up for this one as they know it is a game they can win. We'll play against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a road cover where they lost straight up as an underdog, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season. This system is 32-9 ATS the last 5 seasons. |
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03-09-09 | Orlando Magic v. Detroit Pistons UNDER 187 | Top | 94-98 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA Total of the Year on Magic/Pistons UNDER 187
Double System Dagger: Plays under on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (ORLANDO); an extremely tired team playing their 3rd game in 4 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record. This System is 55-26 the last 5 seasons. Also: Plays under on home teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (DETROIT) after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 46-19 the last 5 seasons. These teams haven't totaled more than 178 points in 2 prior meetings this season. With Orlando in a letdown spot after playing at Boston Sunday, I can't see the Magic putting up big numbers and the Pistons haven't done much scoring all season! Bet the Under tonight. |
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03-08-09 | South Alabama v. Troy | 78-75 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
4* Major Conference Tourney BEST BET on Troy pk
Troy has South Bama's number. The Trojans beat South Bama by 24 on the road in January and then by 5 points at home on Feb 28. Troy is on fire having won 12 of its last 13 and I like the Trojans to hit the Jags in the mouth a third time this season. The Trojans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning SU record while the 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Troy is playing the best ball in the Belt right now and I'll take it in this spot. |
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03-08-09 | Denver Nuggets -7 v. Sacramento Kings | Top | 106-114 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA Revenge Game of the Month on Nuggets -7
The NBA Northwest is heating up with the Nuggets leading by just half a game in the division. With Utah coming on strong, the Nuggets know they cannot afford to take a night off. The road has not treated Denver well lately and this is a spot where the Nuggets will prove to themselves that they can win on the road and I expect it to be an explosive effort. Denver already has 2 blowout wins against the Kings this season and I have them collecting a third Sunday. The only thing you could say the Kings have going in their favor is that they are well rested, but that hasn't worked out well for them as they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest. The Kings are also 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a home underdog and the road team is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Lay the points. |
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03-07-09 | Miami Heat v. Cleveland Cavaliers -9.5 | 89-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
3* SUREFIRE on Cavs -9.5
I don't expect the Cavs to sit and sulk over last night's loss to Boston, especially LeBron James who had a rough night. The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 0 days rest while the Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest. The Cavaliers are 25-6 ATS in their last 31 home games and I'll keep riding the Cavs at home tonight. |
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03-07-09 | Detroit Pistons +3 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 83-87 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA Underdog of the Month on Pistons +3
It's all clicking for the Pistons right now, having won 4 in a row and 5 straight against the number. These weren't just any wins as this run includes victories over the Magic, Celtics, and Nuggets. The Hawks are struggling, having lost 6 of their last 8. This is a huge revenge game for the Pistons who have lost 2 close ones to the Hawks already this season. The Hawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Bet the Pistons! |
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03-07-09 | East Carolina v. Central Florida -10 | 71-74 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
3* SUREFIRE on UCF -10
This is a big revenge game for UCF which went down to ECU a month ago. UCF has won 9 of the last 10 in this matchup, including a 110-75 home win over ECU last season. ECU is 0-7 ATS off a home loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons, getting smoked by an average score of 66.3 to 84.9 in these games. Lay the number. |
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03-07-09 | Texas Tech v. Iowa State -3.5 | Top | 76-78 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy CBB Letdown GOTY on Iowa State -3.5
Great spot for the Cyclones today. First off, Texas Tech is 0-10 in true road games. Secondly, the Tech is coming off a 19-point win over Kansas and if that doesn't spell letdown then I don't know what does. Thirdly, ISU is 12-6 at home this season and you better believe the Cyclones will bring it in their last home game of the season. Tech is 3-13 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog since 1997, getting blown out in these spots by an average score of 61.6 to 76.6. Take ISU! |
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03-07-09 | Connecticut +3.5 v. Pittsburgh | 60-70 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
4* Major First Blood (CBS)on UConn +3.5
With a Big East title on the line, I like UConn to rise to the occasion and return the favor to Pitt today. The Road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the Underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings which meshes with what we saw when Pitt won on the road in the season's first matchup. The Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog while the Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 6.5 or less. Take UConn! |
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03-06-09 | Evansville v. Illinois State -4.5 | 68-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
3* MVC Tourney BEST BET on Illinois State -4.5
This line would be higher if Illinois State hadn't lost its last 3 games. But those losses came in a tough bracket buster game at Niagara, and to then to the 2 best teams in the MVC by a combined 6 points. Illinois State crushed Evansville at home by 30 and then won by 2 over the Aces on the road. This team had high hopes of winning the Valley this season and this is its chance to make things right. Big win for the Red Birds! |
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03-06-09 | Phoenix Suns v. Houston Rockets -5.5 | 112-116 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
3* SUREFIRE on Rockets -5.5
The Rockets are 10-0 SU and 7-2-1 ATS their last 10 home games and I'll lay the points with Houston again tonight. This is a game where the Suns will really miss Amare Stoudemire as you figure that Shaq and Yao will play to a standstill, if Yao doesn't even gain a bit of an advantage. With no other consistent scoring presence inside for the Suns, I expect a confident Rockets team to take care of business. The Rockets already have a 12-point road win over the Suns this season and Phoenix is 0-7 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite this season, losing by 12.0 ppg in these situations. Lay the points! |
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03-06-09 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Boston Celtics -1.5 | Top | 94-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA Eastern Conference Finals Preview on Boston Celtics -1.5
The home team has won each of the last 14 meetings between these 2 teams and I don't see that trend ending here, even without Garnett in the lineup for Boston. This is a statement game for the Celtics, who were crushed 98-83 at Cleveland in the last meeting. This is a situation where Boston can prove that it is the best team in the East with or without one of its stars. Boston is 19-9 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average score of 96.1 to 90.5 in these games. Home court is huge in this matchup and I'll take the Celtics at home tonight. |
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03-06-09 | New Jersey Nets +9 v. Orlando Magic | 102-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA Letdown Game of the Week on Nets +9
The Nets have covered 5 in a row and I love them tonight against a Magic team that will be more worried about its next game with the Celtic. New Jersey will be very much worried about this game though as it was embarrassed 101-84 the last time these teams faced off. Expect a letdown from the Magic in this look ahead spot. |
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03-05-09 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Denver Nuggets -5 | 90-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA on TNT BEST BET on Nuggets -5
With the Blazers having to fight from being double digits last night to squeak out a win, they will be physically and emotionally spent against a hungry Nuggets team. Denver is 23-9 ATS after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons and plays against road teams; a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a win by 6 points or less are 40-14 ATS the last 5 seasons. This is just a bad spot for Portland. |
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03-05-09 | California v. Arizona -4 | 83-77 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
3* Pac-10 SUREFIRE on Arizona -4
This is a great spot for the Wildcats, who finally return home after 3 straight road losses. As if that doesn't fuel the fire enough, they take on a Cal team which beat them 69-55 back in early January. The Wildcats are a much better team than they were back then and I fully expect them to beat Cal for the 12th straight time at home since 1997. In all, the Cats are 21-4 in their last 25 meetings with the Bears. Arizona is 9-0 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season and 10-0 ATS vs. excellent 3 point shooting teams - making >=41% of their attempts after 15+ games since 1997. We'll take the Cats to cash for us tonight. |
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03-05-09 | Indiana State +4 v. Drake | Top | 62-55 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy MVC Tournament GOTY on Indiana State +4
The public is all over Drake which won the Mo Valley tournament a season ago and you can be rest assured that has the books licking their chops. Indiana State's record is deceiving as the Sycamores were not completely healthy for much of the season. They finally clicked about a month ago, winning 6 of their last 7 games while Drake lost 10 of its last 14. Drake is 0-9 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons, losing in these spots by an average score of 63.9 to 67.1. I like the Sycamores in this one as they are playing the better basketball entering the tournament. |
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03-04-09 | Houston Rockets v. Utah Jazz -8.5 | 94-101 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
3* SUREFIRE on Jazz -8.5
I really like the red hot Jazz at home tonight against a Houston team which just played last night and is struggling on the road. Utah is 15-4 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 103.4 to 91.6. Lay the points! |
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03-04-09 | San Antonio Spurs v. Dallas Mavericks -1.5 | Top | 102-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA SW Division GOTY (ESPN) on Mavs -1.5
We'll take the Mavs in the perfect spot tonight. Dallas had this one circled since it was crushed 76-93 in San Antonio on Feb. 24. Tim Duncan did not play in that game and will be back tonight, but the Mavs wouldn't have it any other way as they look to prove they can beat the Spurs at their best. Only they're not, as Ginobli remains out. Josh Howard's status is uncertain for Dallas, but Jason Terry is back and playing well. What fuels Dallas' fire even more tonight is the fact that it was caught looking ahead and lost to lowly Oklahoma City last game. Play On - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) - off a upset loss as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 42-13 ATS since 1996. Pound the Mavs! |
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03-04-09 | Georgia v. Kentucky -17 | 90-85 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
4* Major CBB Double Digit BLOOD BATH on Kentucky -17
Kentucky smacked Georgia 68-45 on the road last month and would have no real incentive to blow the Dawgs out here except that it is coming off back-to-back losses and this is its last home game of the season. The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 13.0 or greater while the Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 13.0 or greater. Lay the points! |
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03-04-09 | Atlanta Hawks v. New York Knicks | 105-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA Point Spread Blowout on Knicks pk
The Hawks run out of gas playing their 3rd game in 4 days tonight against the run and gun Knicks. Atlanta has struggled with the Knicks this season going 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. NY won at home by 8 in late January to improve to 19-5 L24 home games against the Hawks. NY has lost 3 straight and that makes the Knicks very hungry tonight! |
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03-04-09 | Ball State +6 v. Western Michigan | 82-84 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
3* SUREFIRE on Ball State +6
Ball State is the better team and should not be catching this many points here. WMU has lost 9 of its last 10 ATS and with just a .500 home record this season with only a 3.4 margin of victory in those games can not be trusted to lay this many points. |
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03-03-09 | Indiana Pacers v. Sacramento Kings +2.5 | 117-109 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
3* SUREFIRE on Kings +2.5
The Pacers are just 7-25 on the road this season and I'll fade them here in a letdown spot coming off a big win over the Nuggets. The Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Underdog is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings in this series. The Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss. Bet the Kings tonight. |
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03-03-09 | Toronto Raptors v. Houston Rockets -8 | Top | 97-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA Blowout of the Week on Rockets -8
The Rockets have won 9 straight at home while the Raptors have lost 6 of their last 7 on the road. The Raptors have been crushed by the Suns and the Mavs their last 2 games and while they would like to bounce back tonight, it's just not in the cards as the Rockets will be playing to avenge a terrible 21-point loss to Toronto in January. The Raptors are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall, 6-22-1 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. The Rockets are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Take the Rockets tonight. |
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03-03-09 | New Jersey Nets +4 v. Milwaukee Bucks | 99-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
3* SUREFIRE on Nets +4
The public is going to get crushed by taking the Bucks tonight. The Nets are 17-11 ATS on the road this season and have owned the Bucks to the tune of 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Nets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or less and 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. Take the Nets! |
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03-03-09 | Virginia v. Clemson -14.5 | 57-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
4* Major CBB Double Digit BLOOD BATH on Clemson -14.5
I've got another Double Digit Blood Bath for you in the college ranks tonight. Clemson is off consecutive losses and looking to avenge an earlier season loss to the Cavaliers. That spells trouble for Virginia here. Clemson won by 31 at Virginia a season ago and has that potential in this spot tonight. Lay the points. |
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03-02-09 | Dallas Mavericks v. Oklahoma City Thunder +5 | 87-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
3* SUREFIRE on Thunder +5
The Mavericks are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Thunder are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 vs. the NBA Southwest, 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog, 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games, and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. With the Mavs looking ahead to San Antonio next, we'll take the Thunder at home. |
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03-02-09 | The Citadel -6 v. Georgia Southern | 74-53 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
4* Major CBB Double Digit BLOOD BATH on The Citadel -6
This is a huge mismatch and I can't see Georgia Southern getting back up from the 99-56 beating Davidson handing it Saturday. A loss against Wofford ended The Citadel's 11-game winning streak and I fully expect it to bounce back big here with a double digit win to lock up a first round bye in the conference tournament. The Citadel is 11-0 ATS in road lined games this season. Lay the number. |
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03-02-09 | Atlanta Hawks -4 v. Washington Wizards | Top | 98-89 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta -4
Off a 1-point loss to Cleveland, don't expect a letdown from the Hawks here. Rather, expect an offensive explosion against one of the worst teams in the league as the Hawks look to get right back in the win column. The Hawks just beat the Wiz easily by 21 points back on Feb. 10 for their 4th straight win against them. Washington is 0-12 in division games this season while Atlanta is 9-3. The Hawks are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Washington and the road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. The Wizards are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning SU record, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Monday games, and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or less. The Hawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference. Take Atlanta. |
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03-01-09 | Denver Nuggets v. Indiana Pacers +2.5 | 94-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA Letdown Game of the Month on Pacers +2.5
Off a double digit win over the Lakers, expect a major letdown out on the road from the Nuggets tonight. Indiana is playing good ball, having covered the number in 4 of its last 5 and 7 of 11. The Pacers are 18-11 at home this season and have won 5 straight at home. Two of these recent home wins have come against the Cavs and the Magic. Indiana lost by 20 at Denver in January and the Pacers will be looking to pay the Nuggets back here. Indiana is 17-5 ATS revenging a same season loss this season. Take the Pacers. |
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03-01-09 | New Orleans Hornets v. New Jersey Nets +4 | 99-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
3* SUREFIRE on Nets +4
New Orleans has really struggled away from home all season long as it is just 10-16 ATS. It has struggled even more lately and finds itself at 1-6 ATS in its last 7 road games, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. The Nets are a very profitable 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog of 4.5 or less points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. The Public is all over the Hornets here and will fry for it. |
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03-01-09 | Massachusetts +5 v. La Salle | Top | 88-97 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Atlantic 10 Game of the Year on UMass +5
We'll take the Minutemen in a sweet spot today. First, UMass will be after revenge as it went down at home to LaSalle by 8 in late January. Second, UMass is coming off a bad loss against Duquesne and that will further motivate the Minutemen. Third, LaSalle finds itself in a letdown spot off a big win at Temple as a 9.5-point dog. UMass is 6-0 ATS off a home loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 84.2 to 74.5, and 7-0 ATS in road games off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 79.6 to 70.0. Take UMass. |
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02-28-09 | South Carolina v. Vanderbilt -1 | 83-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
3* SUREFIRE on Vandy -1
This is a revenge game for Vandy and I like the Commodores to get it at home where they are a strong 12-4 this season. SC has struggled on the road, going just 2-4 in conference play. SC's road wins have been no picnic as they won at Baylor by just 1, at Kentucky by 1, and at Alabama by 2. Vandy will dominate at home in this spot. |
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02-28-09 | Houston Rockets v. Chicago Bulls +1.5 | 102-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
4* Major Saturday Night NBA BEST BET on Bulls +1.5
Bulls are coming off a bad loss against lowly Washington and will be out for blood tonight against a Rockets team that has lost 3 in a row on the road to the likes of Milwaukee, Memphis, and NY. This is a letdown spot for Houston as well after a dominant performance against Cleveland. The Bulls are playing their best ball of the season with the playoffs well within reach. Take the Bulls at home. |
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02-28-09 | Houston v. Rice +9 | 56-51 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
3* SUREFIRE on Rice +9
With Houston looking ahead to Memphis I look for Rice to have a great opportunity to pull off the shocker. Rice always plays Houston tough and is 6-1 SU and ATS in the last 7 meetings at home. We'll take the points here. |