5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Blowout on Bulls/Knicks UNDER 204
Bottom Line: Coach Thibodeau has said he won't rest his starters, which means I expect a strong effort from the Bulls as they look to go after home court throughout the entire playoffs and avenge a pair of losses to the Knicks. Chicago has allowed New York over the century mark in both meetings this season, so it will really be looking to tighten the screws defensively tonight. Also, Chicago is a perfect 7-0 UNDER when playing a 3rd road game in 5 days this season. We are only seeing a total of 176.6 points scored on average in these games. Pound the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Massacre on Jazz/Hornets UNDER 193.5
Bottom Line: After giving up 111 points to Memphis Sunday, expect the Hornets, which are only allowing 92.3 ppg at home this season, to really dig in here. This will be New Orleans's 3rd game in 4 days, so I expect to see a lot of half-court stuff from Chris Paul and company to save their legs. This has typically been the case in these situations as New Orleans is 20-4 UNDER when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season. We have only seen an average of 180.9 total points scored in this situation. Bet the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Blowout on Thunder/Lakers OVER 189.5
Bottom Line: After 4 straight defeats, this is a game the Lakers really want. Expect them to be very aggressive offensively in the early going to set the tone. Plus, this one figures to be very physical with plenty of fouls, so we should see quite a bit of scoring done at the foul line without the clock moving. Both teams have been unders machines this season, but odds makers have been forced to bring this line down because of it. We saw 195 total points scored in this season's previous meeting in LA and I like this one to reach 200. Bet the Over.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" MASSACRE on Jazz/Spurs UNDER 200
Bottom Line: First off, the Jazz are 10-1 UNDER when the total is 200 to 209.5 since Corbin took over. Utah is also 9-1 UNDER when playing with double revenge (2 straight losses vs. an opponent) this season. We are only seen an average of 190.3 total points scored in these games. In addition, San Antonio is 12-1 UNDER after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. We are only seeing an average of 184.5 total points scored in this situation. Bet the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" MASSACRE on Kings/Grizzlies UNDER 203
Bottom Line: Plays Under on all teams when the total is greater than or equal to 200 (SACRAMENTO) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season, after a blowout loss by 20 points or more - are 143-87 the last 5 seasons. Also, the Under is 5-0 in the Grizzlies' last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, 6-1 in their last 7 home games and 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Bet the Under.

5* Wiseguy TNT Primetime Total on Celtics/Bulls UNDER 179
Bottom Line: Expect the defenses to take center stage in what will feel like a playoff game. Plays Under on all teams (CHICAGO) when the total is between 170 and 179.5 points that have won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games and 60% or more of their games on the season are 43-17 the last 5 seasons. We are only seeing an average of 171.0 total points scored in this situation. The Under is 12-3 in the Celtics' last 15 overall and 9-3 in the Bulls' last 12 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Under is also 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Chicago. Bet the Under.

4* Major NBA *BLOOD BATH* on Mavericks -4.5
Bottom Line: Letdown spot for the Nuggets after coming up short in a game they really wanted against division rival Oklahoma City last night. Major bounce back spot for Dallas, meanwhile, following 3 straight defeats. Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - playing on back-to-back days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record - are 96-55 ATS the last 5 seasons. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Total of the Week on Knicks/76ers UNDER 212.5
Bottom Line: Plays Under on home teams when the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHILADELPHIA) - looking to avenge a loss of 10 points or more to an opponents, off a road loss, are 101-51 (66.4%) since 1996. The Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. Bet the Under as Philly brings the "D" at home, where they are only allowing 95.2 ppg this season.

4* Major NBA "Total" MASSACRE on Thunder/Nuggets UNDER 208
Bottom Line: Plays Under on home teams when the total is 200 to 209.5 (DENVER), that have gone under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, are 71-29 since 1996, including 8-1 this season. We are only seeing an average of 198.7 total points scored in this situation. The Under is 10-3 in the Thunder's last 13 overall and 5-1 in their last 6 road games. The Under is also 13-3 in the Nuggets' last 16 overall. Take the Under.

5* Wiseguy "Total" MASSACRE on Butler/UConn UNDER 129
Bottom Line: The Under is 5-1 in the Huskies' last 6 overall and 22-10-1 in their last 33 games as a favorite. The Under is 7-3 in the Bulldogs' last 10 NCAA Tournament games and 4-1 in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. Also, plays Under on neutral court teams when the total is 129.5 or less (CONNECTICUT) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (63-67 PPG), after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games - are 50-23 since 1997. We are only seeing an average of 121.2 total points scored in this situation. In addition, Butler doesn't turn the ball over very often and UConn doesn't force many turnovers. When points off turnovers are projected to be low, the Under is usually a strong play. Consider that UConn is 6-0 Under after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers this season. Bet the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Blowout on Cavs/Knicks UNDER 216
Bottom Line: Plays Under on home teams when the total is greater than or equal to 210 (NEW YORK) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games and with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season - are 30-10 (75%) since 1996. We are only seeing an average of 205.4 total points scored in this situation. We'll bet the Under.

4* Major Final Four *BLOOD BATH* on Kentucky -2
Bottom Line: The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. UConn may have won the first meeting between these teams back in November, but Kentucky is 8-1 ATS under Coach Cal when playing on the road or neutral court in a revenge game. The Wildcats have won these games by an average score of 75.7 to 64.0. Take Kentucky.

5* Wiseguy Final Four "Total" Massacre on VCU/Butler UNDER 134.5
Bottom Line: Butler has played in 9 NCAA tournament games the last 2 seasons and 7 of those have finished Under the number. Brad Stevens and his staff continue to find ways to get the opposition out of any kind of offensive rhythm and the players are disciplined enough to execute flawlessly. VCU's defense has been terrific as well, holding each of its last 2 opponents to under 37% shooting. This is significant because VCU is on a 10-2 UNDER run when playing away from home after 2 straight games allowing a shooting pct. of 37% or less. We are only seeing an average of 121.1 total points scored in this situation. Bet the Under.

4* Major NBA *BLOOD BATH* on Trail Blazers -2.5
Bottom Line: The Blazers have lost 3 times to OKC this season so they will be out for some series revenge tonight. It's extremely tough to beat any team 4 times in the same season, especially one as good as Portland. The Blazers have won their last 6 home games and are 26-10 in all home contests this season. They really "D" up at the Rose Garden, and I'm confident their defense will earn them the win and cover here. Portland is 11-2 ATS in home games after having lost 2 of its last 3 games this season. It is winning by an average score of 100.1 to 89.4 in this situation. Bet the Blazers.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Massacre on Bucks/Pacers UNDER 189.5
Bottom Line: One of the most lucrative trends this season has been to take the Under in Milwaukee games following a game in which the Bucks finishes Over the totals. The Bucks are an awesome 20-6 UNDER after one or more consecutive overs this season, and we are only seeing an average of 182.2 total points scored in these games. Bet the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT "Total" MASSACRE on Mavs/Lakers UNDER 191.5
Bottom Line: The Lakers have been at their best defensively against the best competition. In fact, LA is 12-2 UNDER versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. We are only seeing an average of 186.2 total points scored in this situation. The Under is 9-4 in the Lakers' last 13 overall and 5-1 in the Mavericks' last 6 overall. We'll take the Under in what should be a lower scoring defensive battle.

4* Major NIT Championship *BLOOD BATH* on Alabama +2.5
Bottom Line: Wichita State has been cruising right along, but that stops tonight against one of the best defensive teams in the country. The Crimson Tide are quietly 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games overall. They are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning SU record and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. The Shockers, meanwhile, are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600, 4-11 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. Take the Tide.

4* Major NBA "Total" Bailout on Thunder/Suns UNDER 212
Bottom Line: Phoenix was killed on the glass by Sacramento last night, which is the biggest reason why it lost the game. Such terrible rebounding efforts have spurred on much better ones for Phoenix this season. In fact, the Suns are a perfect 9-0 UNDER after being outrebounded by 15 or more boards this season. We are only seeing an average of 196.1 total points scored in this situation. Look for Phoenix to get on the boards tonight to limit Oklahoma City's second chance opportunity. The Thunder should score less points as a result. Take the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA Total of the Year on Warriors/Grizzlies UNDER 210
Bottom Line This is a rare situation we can't afford to pass up. Golden State is 20-9 UNDER in road games when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons. If the Warriors are playing their second road contest in as many days, this trend tightens up to 16-3 UNDER! The Warriors have been a money UNDERS play on the road all season. Bet the UNDER!

4* Major NBA "Total" Massacre on Suns/Kings OVER 214
Bottom Line: After a pair of lackluster games offensively, expect the Suns to get it going tonight. Phoenix is 13-2 OVER in road games when avenging a home loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. We are seeing an average of 228.3 total points scored in this situation. Bet the Over.

5* Wiseguy NIT Game of the Year on Wichita State -2.5
Bottom Line: The Cougars have really struggled on the road, going just 3-8 in their last 11 games away from home. In addition, Washington State has been a terrible investment in the underdog role. Consider that the Cougars are 14-30-2 ATS in their last 46 games when catching points. Wichita State, meanwhile, is 5-1 ATS in itslast 6 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. Also, the Shockers have had a lot more success on the road this season, going 13-4 in all games outside Wichita. The Shockers showed what they are made of when they went into Blacksburg and knocked off the Hokies in the 2nd round of the NIT. We'll lay the points tonight as they handle the Cougars on a neutral floor.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Massacre on 76ers/Bulls UNDER 191.5
Bottom Line: Under coach Thibodeau, Chicago is 14-2 UNDER when out to avenge a road loss to an opponent. The Bulls have really tightened the screws defensively in these spots and we are only seeing an average of 179.1 total points scored in this situation as a result. Bet the UNDER.

4* Major NBA Total Play of the Day on Blazers/Thunder Under 192.5
Bottom Line: Under coach McMillan, Portland is an awesome 10-1 UNDER in road games when checking in off a home no-cover in which they won straight up as a favorite. We are only seeing an average of 184.9 total points scored in this situation. The Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these teams in Oklahoma City. The Under is 7-1 in the Thunder's last 8 overall and 12-3-1 in the Trail Blazers' last 16 vs. a team with a winning SU record. Bet the Under.

5* Wiseguy Elite 8 "Total" Blowout on Kentucky/UNC Under 146.5
Bottom Line: UNC is 6-0 UNDER when playing away from home after scoring 40 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. We are only seeing a total of 135.5 points scored on average in this situation. Also, Calipari is 16-5 UNDER when revenging a loss in which his teams' opponent scored 75 or more points in all games he has coached since 1997. We are only seeing 135.4 total points scored on average in this situation. These 2 teams combined for 148 during the regular season, but with the stakes raised this game should have a lot more defensive intensity. Plus, look for Kentucky to take the air out of the ball like it did against Ohio State. Bet the Under.

4* Major NBA Game of the Night on Knicks -4
Bottom Line: Big letdown spot for Charlotte after last night's big come from behind win over Boston. The Knicks, meanwhile, will be out for blood after enduring their 5th straight defeat yesterday. The Knicks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games playing on 0 days rest. The Bobcats are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 0 days rest. The Knicks are the much more talented team and should have their way with Charlotte tonight.

5* Wiseguy NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on UConn -2.5
Bottom Line: UConn is a perfect 11-0 ATS in all tournament games this season, winning these contests by an average score of 78.0 to 66.7. The Huskies are also 8-0 ATS in non-conference games this season, winning these matchups by an average score of 78.9 to 63.2. UConn is 8-1 ATS against Pac 10 conference opponents under coach Calhoun, included 4-0 ATS against Arizona, defeating these foes by an average score of 80.3 to 70.0. Take the Huskies!

4* Major NBA Bailout on Blazers -4
Bottom Line: Without Duncan, the Spurs were able to hang with a defensively challenged Nuggets team the other night. I don't see them hanging here. Portland has won 5 straight at home against the Spurs, including a 13-point win last month. The Blazers have also covered the number in all 5 of those games, winning them by an average score of 99 to 89. Without Duncan, Portland has a big edge on the interior with Aldridge, who scored 40 points against the Spurs the last time he faced them. Expect another big game from him to lead to another comfortable win by Portland.

5* Wiseguy NCAA Tournament Total of the Year on Kentucky/Ohio State UNDER 141.5
Bottom Line: These are 2 of the premier defensive teams in the country. They match up extremely well, which means both teams should have plenty of success defensively this evening. Kentucky has held its last 8 opponents to an average of 61.3 points while Ohio State has held its last 8 foes to 60.1 points on average. UK is 13-4 UNDER in its last 17 games as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less and 7-0 UNDER in its last 7 away games versus very good shooting teams making >=48% of their shots. We'll pound the Under as these 2 heavyweights play this game in the 60's.

5* Wiseguy NBA Double Digit *BLOOD BATH* on Celtics -13
Bottom Line: Motivated by a loss to Memphis last game and a loss to Charlotte last month, expect the Celtics to flex their muscles at home tonight. Boston knows how valuable the home court advantage is in the playoffs, so I don't expect it to just hand it over to the Bulls. A Boston team this motivated should have no problem taking it to a Charlotte squad that has dropped 10 of its last 12 with those 10 defeats coming by 17.5 points on average. Lay the points.

4* Major on Wisconsin -4.5
Bottom Line: Butler could have easily been bounced in the first round but has managed to win by the skin of its teeth. I'm confident, however, that its second straight Cinderella run comes to an end right here. The Bulldogs don't have the size to match up with the Badgers, which means Wisconsin should dominate the boards. Plus, the Badgers don't turn the ball over. So they won't be giving up anything easy in transition. Butler's style has been a major contrast to most teams in the tourney the last 2 years, but Wisconsin plays the same way and is more talented. This leads me to believe the Badgers will be able to wear the Bulldogs down, just as they did to their Big Ten opponents throughout the year. The Badgers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. Take Wisconsin.

5* Wiseguy Sweet 16 *BLOOD BATH* on Duke -8.5
Bottom Line: Duke won 4 of its 6 NCAA tournament games by double digits on its way to a national title last year. It is also 6-2 ATS in its last 8 NCAA tournament games as a favorite. With Coach K saying Irving will get significant time, I expect Duke to be way too much for the Wildcats tonight. Duke also has a huge edge in terms of experience on the floor and in the coaches box. The high over/under number is also a good sign as Duke is 11-4 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season. It is winning these contests by an average of 13.4 points. Lay the number.

4* Major on San Diego State +1.5
Bottom Line: UConn may have the best player on the floor, but SDSU is a better team. It is more balanced, more experienced and much better defensively. Expect SDSU's length and athleticism to really bother Kemba Walker tonight. The Aztecs also have the good fortune of playing close to home where they will have all the crowd support and no body clock issues. SDSU is 13-4 ATS versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4+ points/game this season. Take the Aztecs.

4* Major Wednesday *NIT BAILOUT* Northwestern +4
Bottom Line: Jump on Northwestern tonight with the news of Washington State's top rebounder and third-leading scorer, DeAngelo Casto, being suspended for marijuana possession. Northwestern has some good size in the frontcourt and will take advantage of the Cougars missing one of their better starters. Northwestern has played extremely well to end the season including playing close in the Big Ten Tournament against Ohio State and, most recently, upsetting Boston College to advance in the NIT. The Wildcats are the play tonight.

5* Wiseguy NBA Western Conference Game of the Year on Nuggets -5
Bottom Line: San Antonio enters this match up with the best record in the NBA, however, without one of their key players with Tim Duncan nursing a bad ankle. The Nuggets have looked great at home since the Carmelo Anthony trade. They've won and covered the spread in 6-straight home games and are facing a San Antonio team who is playing in their fourth game in six days. San Antonio also comes in with just a 1-4 ATS record on the road against teams with a .600 home winning percentage or better. The Nuggets fit that description, lay the points.

4* Major Wednesday *BLOOD BATH* on New York Knicks +1
Bottom Line: This is an important spot for the Knicks, who are still fighting for a better seed in the NBA playoffs. Here we have a case of a hot team (Orlando) who hits the road to face a cold home team (New York). The rub is that the Magic's record as the visiting teams is nearly identical to the Knicks' home record. Orlando has looked good of late winning three straight (though failing to cover in all three), but those games were against less talented teams. New York has dropped three straight, but two of those games were on the road and their most recent loss came to one of the top teams in the East in the Boston Celtics. Look for the Knicks to get back on track Wednesday night.

4* Major NIT *BLOOD BATH* (ESPN) on Colorado -10
Bottom Line: Colorado has come ready to play at home in each of its first 2 NIT games, posting wins of 14 and 17 points, and I expect no different tonight. Instead of crying about their NCAA Tourney snub, the Buffs are using it as motivation. They are an impressive 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points while Kent State is a lousy 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Bet the Buffs.

5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT PRIMETIME PUNISHER on Hawks +4.5
Bottom Line: This is a game the Hawks really want after the 18-point loss they were handed in Chicago earlier this month, and they won't be lacking any confidence against a team they have defeated 6 straight times at home by an average of 14.0 ppg. The Hawks match up very well with the Bulls with their physical, athletic lineup, which is the main reason Chicago 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings and 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Atlanta. Take the points.

4* Major NIT *BLOOD BATH* (ESPN2) on Washington State -6.5
Bottom Line: Here we have a good home team and a terrible road club, and I won't hesitate to take the home squad. Oklahoma State is a terrible 15-37-2 ATS in its last 54 road games as an underdog. Meanwhile, Washington State is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home games as a home. The Cowboys have struggled away from home all season, and I fully expect those struggles to continue tonight.

5* Wiseguy Monday NBA Blowout on Bulls -15.5
Bottom Line: The Bulls blew a 35-point lead and lost to the Kings at the United Center last season. That defeat, and the most recent, assures us Chicago will be in major revenge mode this evening. Chicago is a deadly 7-0 ATS in home games after playing 4 consecutive games as favorite this season. The Bulls are winning by an average of 17.3 points in this situation. Bet the Bulls.

4* Major NCAA Tournament Play of the Day on Purdue -9
Bottom Line: Purdue is 18-10 ATS in all lined games this season, including 15-7 ATS when listed as a favorite. The Boilermakers have won the games in which they have been favored by an average of 10.6 points. The Rams have shot out of their minds from 3-point range to knock off USC and Georgetown. Expect Purdue to do a great job of chasing VCU shooters off the stripe to earn the win and get us the cover.

5* Wiseguy Sunday NBA Blowout on Hawks -7
Bottom Line: I fully expect the Hawks to show up today after getting their butts kicked in their last 2. The Pistons have lost 6 in a row on the road by an average of 11.0 points. They have also lost their last 5 in Atlanta, averaging just 86.0 points in those defeats. The Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Expect them to take care of business in this highly motivated spot.

4* Major NCAA Tournament Play of the Day on Wisconsin -3
Bottom Line: Wisconsin is the better defensive team, the more disciplined team and the better free throw shooting squad. These 3 key elements will lead to a nice win and cover for the Badgers. The Wildcats are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. The Badgers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 game against the Big 12. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Blowout Game of the Week on Grizzlies -9
Bottom Line: Indiana is in for a major letdown here following last night's big OT victory over the Bulls. Memphis, meanwhile, will be out for blood following a blowout loss to the Knicks in its last game. The a lousy 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games when playing on 0 days of rest. The 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a defeat of more than 10 points and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 versus the Pacers. Lay the number.

4* Major NBA GAME OF THE NIGHT on Bobcats +9.5
Bottom Line: A double-digit defeat to Houston last game and a double-digit loss to OKC earlier this season assure us the Bobcats will be hungry when they take the floor tonight. The numbers are in our favor as well. Charlotte is 24-9 ATS after having lost 6 or 7 of its last 8 games over the last 3 seasons and 20-8 ATS after being held to 80 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Also, OKC is 3-12 ATS after having won 8 or more of its last 10 games over the last 2 seasons. Odds makers are spotting the Bobcats too many tonight and we'll look to take advantage. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy NCAA Tournament 1st Round Game of the Year on Texas -10
Bottom Line: Plays against underdogs seeded 13-16 in the Big Dance that enter with 8 wins or more in their last 10 games are an impressive 38-13 ATS the past 5 seasons. Teams fitting this system are falling by 16.7 points on average. Plus, Oakland has lost to the likes of W. Virginia, Illinois, Purdue, Ohio State and Michigan by an average of 19.4 points. I fully expect the Longhorns to take care of business in a big way here.

5* Wiseguy Round 1 Monster Line Mistake on Bucknell +10
Bottom Line: Considering the emotional high UConn is riding following its Big East tournament title, and the physical toll winning 5 games in 5 days has taken on this team, odds makers are giving the Huskies too much respect with this line. UConn is one of those teams that is constantly overvalued and that is certainly the case here with books knowing the public money will be pouring in on Kemba Walker and company. I'm not hesitating to go against the grain as UConn is just 4-12 ATS in its last 16 first round tournament games. Bet Bucknell.

4* Major Round 1 *Underdog Shocker* on Wofford +8.5
Bottom Line: BYU has struggled to find consistency without Davies, which opens the door for Wofford to pull off the upset. The Terriers will be lacking no confidence in this one after playing the Wisconsin Badgers to a 4-point game in the first round of the dance last year. The Terriers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games while the Cougars 2-7 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games. It also can't be ignored that Wofford is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Take the Terriers.

4* Major Early CA$H COW on Old Dominion -2
Bottom Line: Old Dominion is every bit as good as it was last year when it upset Notre Dame in the first round. But Butler isn't near the team that made a historic run to the national title game. The Bulldogs will really miss the athletic ability of Gordon Hayward in this one against a very athletic ODU squad. The Monarchs are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall, and I expect them to cash another ticket bright and early Thursday.

4* Major CBI Tournament Game of the Night on Montana pk
Bottom Line: The Grizzlies enjoy one of the best home court advantages in the country. They are 13-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of 16.2 points. Proving they didn't just prey on weaker competition, Montana owns wins over Oregon State and UCLA. The Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games while the struggling Dukes are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Duquesne won't make it out of the bear cave alive tonight.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Blowout on Thunder/Heat UNDER 202.5
Bottom Line: This is without a doubt the strongest totals system I've come across this year. Plays Under on any team (MIAMI) after a huge blowout win by 30 or more, against an opponent that led in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half, are 34-7 since 1996, 17-2 the last 5 seasons and 1-0 this season. We have only seen an average of 185.0 total points scored in this system. Pound the Under.

4* Major NIT Game of the Night (ESPN2) on Wichita State -4.5
Bottom Line: Nebraska has been a terrible road investment for as long as I can remember. We've made some nice money fading them this season on the road, where they are just 1-7. The Huskers are just 20-41-1 ATS in their last 62 road games. I don't believe they'll be able to shake their road woes against one of the best teams in the Valley tonight. Lay the points.

4* Major NCAA Tourney Game of the Night (truTV) on UAB +5
Bottom Line: Look for UAB to take Clemson right down to the wire in this play-in game. The Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games, 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 neutral site games and 8-20 ATS in their last 28 neutral site games as a favorite. The Blazers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games and 15-7 ATS in their last 22 neutral site games as an underdog. Lastly, UAB is 6-0 ATS in away games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games this season. Bet the Blazers.

5* Wiseguy NBA Underdog Game of the Week on Bucks +5.5
Bottom Line: The Hawks have been a pure fade when valued as a home favorite this season. They are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite and 8-19 ATS in all games as a home favorite this season. The Hawks have also struggled in revenge spots like this. In fact, they are just 1-8 ATS in home games when out to avenge a loss to a foe this season. Milwaukee has already taken 2 of 3 from Atlanta this season and it will be lacking no motivation after the way it was pounded by Boston Sunday. Take the points.

4* Major NIT Game of the Night (ESPN2) on Charleston -5.5
Bottom Line: This is a tough spot for the Flyers, going on the road to open the NIT just 2 days after their NCAA tourney dreams were shattered. This isn't just any road game either. It's in Charleston where the Cougars are 12-1 this season. And they haven't just won at home; they have dominated with an average winning margin of 16.0 points. Lay the points with the Cougars in this one.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BLOOD BATH* (ESPN) on Lakers -6
Bottom Line: While winning 9 of their last 10, the Lakers have paid back the Spurs and the Mavs for previous losses this season. I expect them to have their revenge against Orlando tonight. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - avenging a loss to an opponent of 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 62-29 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this system are winning by an average of 8.9 points. In addition, plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - avenging a loss in which it was held to less than 85 points, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 32-10 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting this profile are winning by an average of 11.7 points. Take the Lakers.

5* Wiseguy Sunday NBA *BLOOD BATH* on Celtics -8.5
Bottom Line: The Celtics are one of the best bounce back teams in the NBA at 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games following a SU loss. They have lost back-to-back games just 4 prior times this season, and they have responded to win the next game each time by an average of 16.0 points. Plus, Boston will benefit from the presence of Delonte West and Glen Davis. Both are expected back in the lineup today. Bet Boston.

4* Major Conference Tourney *CA$H COW* on Duke -3.5
Bottom Line: While UNC is lucky to be in the championship game after a pair of come-from-behind wins against Miami and Clemson, Duke has taken care of Maryland and Virginia Tech by double digits. The Dukies, which have won back-to-back ACC titles (and 9 of the last 12), want this one really bad after blowing the regular season title with a loss to the Heels in the last game of the regular season. Expect UNC's luck to run out this afternoon as this hungry Duke squad takes it to 'em. Plays on neutral court teams (DUKE) - an explosive offensive team (>=76 PPG) against a good offensive team (74-76 PPG) after 15+ games, and after a win by 10 points or more, are 29-9 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this system have won by an average of 9.9 points. Take Duke.

4* Major Big East Championship (ESPN) on Louisville -2
Bottom Line: The value clearly lies with the much fresher Louisville team here. The Cards were pushed to OT last night, but they will still have a lot more legs than a UConn club playing its 5th game in 5 days. Look for Louisville to slap on its patented press early to really wear down the Huskies in this one. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 vs. the Big East. Also, the Huskies are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this head-to-head series. A great run by UConn comes to an end here.

4* Major NBA Game of the Night on Bucks -2
Bottom Line: I really like the Bucks in this spot. They have had 2 full days to gear up for this one and they are playing with same season double revenge. The 76ers are primed for a letdown following a huge win over Boston last night. Plus, fatigue will be an issue for them as this is their 2nd game in as many nights and their 4th in 5 days. Philly is just 12-20 on the road this season, and I believe it runs into a buzz saw tonight. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy Pac-10 Tournament Game of the Year on Washington -2.5
Bottom Line: Unranked Washington is favored over a ranked Arizona squad that won the Pac-10? Odds makers know something, and I couldn't agree more. Washington destroyed the Wildcats by 17 at home and then played them to a 1-point game on the road. The Huskies will prove that they are the best team in the Pac-10 with a win and cover in this neutral court battle. Plays on -neutral court teams (WASHINGTON) that are explosive offensively (averaging 76 or more ppg) against a good offensive team averaging 74-76 ppg 15-plus games into the season and after a win by 10 or more points, are an awesome 29-8 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting this system are winning by an average score of 78.8 to 68.7. Take Washington.

4* Major NBA Game of the Night on Bobcats +4.5
Bottom Line: Portland is 1-8 ATS when it has won 4 of its last 5 games this season. It is losing by an average score of 94.7 to 89.4 in this spot. Charlotte is 22-8 ATS after losing 6 or 7 of its last 8 games over the last 3 seasons. It is winning by an average score of 94.3 to 90.2 in this spot. Off a big win over Miami, the Blazers will get caught overlooking a team they crushed last week. Take the points.

4* Major Primetime Punisher (ESPN) on Syracuse -3.5
Bottom Line: Jim Boeheim's zone completely shut down UConn in an 8-point win during the season. Kemba Walker especially struggled, scoring 8 points on 3-for-14 shooting. Expect the Syracuse zone to be the difference again. Plus, it also doesn't bode well for UConn that this is its 4th game in 4 days.

5* Wiseguy Conference Tournament Blowout Game of the Year on Kansas -12
Bottom Line: After getting a major scare yesterday, Kansas will be ready to run a fatigued Colorado team off the court. Consider that Kansas is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games away from home following a close win by 3 points or less. The Jayhawks are winning these games by an average of 14.3 points. Kansas crushed Colorado by 26 last month, and I fully expect another decisive victory by the Jayhawks here.

5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Mavericks -5.5
Bottom Line: Letdown city for the Knicks after last night's buzzer-beater win over Memphis. Dallas, meanwhile, is in extreme bounce back mode after completely peeing away yesterday's contest with New Orleans. Dallas have won 16 of the last 18 games in this matchup. It is also worth noting that 14 of the Mavs' last 17 wins in this series have come by at least 6 points. With Billups ruled out, the Mavs have the huge edge at the guard spots with Rodrique Beaubois, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry and Jose Barea. Plus, Tyson Chandler and Brendan Haywood should be able to hold their own down low with Stoudemire. The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the NBA Atlantic, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. the Eastern Conference. Lay the points.

4* Major Thursday Night Conference Tourney Blowout on Texas -13.5
Bottom Line: We faded South Florida successfully yesterday as it came in riding high off a win over Villanova. Now, we'll fade Oklahoma following its shocking blowout win over Baylor. Texas has handled the Sooners by 20 and 16 points this season, and I don't expect it to show OU any mercy here. Texas is on a mission after letting the Big 12 regular season title get away. The Longhorns are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games overall, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater. Also, the Sooners are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take Texas.

4* Major Big East Tourney Public Burial on Cincy +2
Bottom Line: I really like the way Cincinnati is playing. We rode the Bearcats to our Big East Game of the Year yesterday, and I'm sticking with them here. Cincy is an impressive 9-4 when playing away from home this season. Also, the Bearcats are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games in the underdog role. Notre Dame relies heavily on the 3-point shot, but it is only shooting the 3 at a 32.5% clip away from home this season. With as well as Cincy has been defending - holding its last 5 foes to average of 56.2 points - look for the Bearcats to pull off the upset this evening.

4* Major NBA Double Digit *BLOOD BATH* on Magic -9
Bottom Line: The Magic get Dwight Howard back from suspension tonight, and they will waste no time jumping all over a Sacramento team that upset in their first game out of the All-Star break. Orlando is 20-6 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons, defeating these foes by an average of 15.7 points. Also, the Magic 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take Orlando.

4* Major NBA "Total" Blowout on Mavs/Hornets UNDER 189
Bottom Line: The Hornets only managed 77 points in their last game without Chris Paul to facilitate the offense. He won't be back in the lineup tonight, and that means the offense should continue to struggle. Plus, plays Under on all teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (NEW ORLEANS) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games, after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less, are 51-24 the last 5 seasons. We are only seeing an average of 180.1 total points scored in this situation. Lastly, the Under is 12-4 in the Hornets' last 16 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. Bet the Under.

5* Wiseguy Big East Game of the Year on Cincinnati -10
Bottom Line: This is a huge letdown spot for S. Florida following its huge comeback win over Villanova last night. Cincy is playing its best ball of the season heading into the tourney. It has won 5 of its last 6 games with those 5 wins coming by an average of 12.4 points. In addition, the Bearcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points while the Bulls are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Cincinnati is one of the best defensive teams in the country, and it should have no problem putting the clamps on a tired USF squad that used a ton of energy in last night's comeback. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA MONSTER LINE MISTAKE on Hawks +5.5
Bottom Line: The Lakers are getting way too much respect from odds makers in this situation. I know they have won 7 straight out of the break, but this is a major sandwich game. LA is coming off its biggest win of the season (over San Antonio) and it will be much more concerned with 3 upcoming revenge games against Miami, Dallas and Orlando than it will a Hawks team it defeated by 24 2 weeks ago. While Atlanta won't get LA's full attention, you better believe LA will get all of Atlanta's focus. The Hawks are off consecutive losses, including an ugly loss to the Knicks. Combine that with their ugly loss at LA, and I expect this to be one of the most motivated spots for the Hawks all season. Atlanta has won 3 in a row at home against the Lakers and the last 2 wins have come by 10 and 17 points. We'll take the points.

4* Major Conference Tourney Double Digit *BLOOD BATH* on Akron -12
Bottom Line: After dropping their final two games of the regular season, the Zips will be out for blood against an Eastern Michigan team they have dominated at home. Akron has won 8 of its last 10 at home in this matchup and the last 3 home wins have come by an average of 18.0 points. In fact, the home team is a dominant 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this series. Akron has won its last 7 home game while Eastern Michigan has dropped its last 7 on the road. Plus, the Zips will want this game even more because they lost at E. Mich during the regular season. This one has all the makings of a blowout. Lay the points.

4* Major WCC Championship *CA$H COW* (ESPN) on St. Mary's +1.5
Bottom Line: St. Mary's destroyed Gonzaga by 19 points in last year's WCC championship game, and I expect the Gaels to come through again tonight. St. Mary's is an impressive 10-2 ATS in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons, 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 neutral site games and 4-1 ATS in its last 5 neutral site games as an underdog. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as a favorite. Also, the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the Gaels.

5* Wiseguy NBA Letdown Game of the Month on Thunder +3
Bottom Line: After coming back from 18 down to end Dallas' 8-game win streak on Zach Randolph's buzzer-beater, the Grizzlies are primed for a major letdown today. In addition, OKC wants this game badly after falling at home to Memphis last month. Randolph has been effective against the Thunder this season, but I expect a lackluster performance from him here after logging 42-plus minutes Sunday. OKC is 8-1 ATS in road games this season when looking to avenge a loss in which it allowed its opponent to score 100 or more points. The Thunder are winning these games by an average score of 100.2 to 99.3. Expect the Thunder to earn the outright win.

4* Major (ABC) on Lakers +3
Bottom Line: The Lakers have been out to remind everyone following that they are the two-time defending champs. The Lakers have won 6 straight, and they will be extremely motivated here having lost the season's first 2 meetings with San Antonio. The Lakers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. Western Conference and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Spurs, meanwhile, are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Plus, Friday's blowout win over the Heat won't do the Spurs any favors as they'll come into this one riding a little too high. Expect the Lakers to knock them down a notch with a win Sunday.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BLOOD BATH* (ABC) on Heat -5
Bottom Line: I doubt we will find a team as talented as the Heat in a more motivated spot the rest of the season. Miami has lost the season's first 2 meetings with the Bulls and it enters this contest having lost its last 3 games. Getting absolutely embarrassed by the Spurs on national TV Friday night assures us that the Heat will be extremely focused for this national TV affair. Plays on any team (MIAMI) - off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 46-22 ATS (67.6%) the last 5 seasons. Lay the points.

4* Major Saturday Night NBA *BLOOD BATH* on Clippers -1.5
Bottom Line: Expect Denver to finally endure a letdown against a Clippers team that is back to full strength. The Clippers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Denver has is 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in its last 7 and LA is favored? Odds makers thing the Nuggets are going down, and I completely agree.

5* Wiseguy ACC Game of the Year on Duke +1
Bottom Line: Really like Duke's senior leadership of Smith and Singler to be the difference in this one. Going to the numbers, the underdog is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings and the road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The Blue Devils are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less. UNC is in this position by the skin of its teeth while Duke has been rather dominant. Lookout for the Heels next year, but this year the Dukies capture another ACC title.

4* Major Big East *BLOOD BATH* on UConn -3
Bottom Line: The Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. UConn has won its last 7 at home in this series, and I expect this trend to continue as Kemba Walker leads the Huskies to a win and cover on senior day.

4* Major NCAAB Friday Night Blowout on Indiana State -4
Bottom Line: The Sycamores are playing their best ball of the season heading into the MVC tourney. They have won 5 of 6 down the stretch, and they will be benefited by the return of guard Jake Kelly. Because Evansville defeated the Sycamores twice this season, Indiana State will be even hungrier and more focused in this one. The Sycamores are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite. Lay the points with ISU.

4* Major NBA Non-Conference *Cash Cow* on Warriors +9.5
Bottom Line: Boston is getting too much respect against a Warriors team that will be lacking no motivation following the defeat the Celtics handed them out of the All-Star break. Plus, Boston will be playing with a short bench with Glen Davis and Delonte West not expected to go. Boston is a lousy 31-44 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons, including just 14-26 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points during this span. Going back three seasons, Boston is a dismal 9-23 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points over the last 3 seasons. Take the Warriors.

5* Wiseguy ESPN Game of the Month on Bulls +2
Bottom Line: This is a big letdown spot for the Magic, which used a ton of energy in erasing a 24-point deficit to defeat the Heat last night. Meanwhile, this is a big bounce back spot for a Bulls team that would like to wash the sour taste of Wednesday's loss to the Hawks out of its mouth. Chicago blew a 19-point lead in that contest, which will have it even more focused this evening. Chicago has become an elite defensive team under coach Thibodeau. In fact, it is an impressive 19-6 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game under Thibodeau, defeating these foes by an average of 7.0 points. Chicago's defense will be the difference in this one. Bet the Bulls.

4* Major NCAAB Primetime Punisher (ESPN2) on Washington -8
Bottom Line: Huge letdown spot for UCLA, which just spanked Arizona in its last game. Washington, meanwhile, will be in bounce back mode following an upset loss to Washington State. The Bruins do not match up well with this explosive Huskies squad, as evidence by the 11-point defeat they took at home earlier this season. The Bruins are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. The Bruins are also 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings and 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings at Washington. Lay the number.

5* Wiseguy NBA Monster Line Mistake (TNT) on Magic +5
Bottom Line: The Magic have had this one circled ever since they fell at home to the Heat a month ago. They enter tonight's contest in better current form, and I fully expect them to have their revenge. Dwight Howard has taken his game to another level and that spells bad news for a Miami team that is lacking a physical post presence. The Heat are a poor 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Considering the Magic have an excellent shot to win this one outright, we'll take the points.

4* Major NCAAB Primetime Punisher (ESPN2) on Seton Hall +2.5
Bottom Line: The books are looking to trap the public big time here. Joe public has fallen in love with the Johnnies and the books are well aware. Odds makers have come out with a line the public can't refuse, but we aren't about to take the bait. This is a big rivalry game and Seton Hall will be lacking no confidence against a team in defeated by 9 last season. It's been 13 years since St. John's won a road game against Seton Hall. The Johnnies have excelled in the underdog role, but now they are wearing the target. They'll get Hall's best shot tonight, and I don't think they'll be able to survive it. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Pound the Pirates.

4* Major NBA Late Night Bailout on Blazers -3
Bottom Line: The Blazers will be very hungry tonight after a poor performance against Houston Tuesday. They will be further motivated by a loss to Sacramento in January. The Blazers have won 4 in a row on the road, and they have also won their last 4 in Sacramento. The Trail Blazers are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or less while the Kings are 10-29-1 ATS in their last 40 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or less. Also, the Trail Blazers are 26-11-1 ATS in their last 38 games when playing on 0 days rest. Lay the number.

4* Major NBA "Total" Blowout on Suns/Celtics OVER 199
Bottom Line: Normally the Celtics would look to slow the game down on Phoenix, but Boston is a smaller team now following the trade of Perkins. Plus, Phoenix has played back-to-back overtime games and this will be its 4th road game in 6 days. Expect the C's to run with Phoenix tonight, as they believe they will have more stamina in this one. The result of an uptempo affair should be an easy Overs winner. The Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these teams in Boston. Bet the Over.

5* Wiseguy NBA Public Opinion *Power Play* on Bulls -3.5
Bottom Line: I'm confident the public has this one right. The Bulls are the better team and they are in good current form. Atlanta will be without star forward Josh Smith. Plus, the Bulls will be very motivated by the fact that the Hawks have taken it to them the last few seasons. Chicago is now the better team, and it will look to send a message. The Bulls are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite, 20-6-2 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record and 18-6 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Bet the Bulls.

5* Wiseguy Public Burial on Grizzlies -1
Bottom Line: Memphis has played San Antonio as tough as anyone this season, and I like the Grizzlies to get the win at home against the Spurs tonight. Memphis has now played several games without Rudy Gay and has had others step up. San Antonio, meanwhile, will struggle in its first full game without Tony Parker. Without Parker on the floor, Memphis was able to erase a huge deficit in Sunday's meeting. Plus, we saw how much the Spurs struggled last season when Parker missed significant time. The Grizz are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 versus their division, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Take Memphis in the small chalk.

4* Major Big Ten Game of the Week (ESPN) on Illinois +9.5
Bottom Line: The Illini need this game in the worst way to boost their NCAA Tourney hopes. That motivation will be more than enough for Illinois to keep this one within the number. The Fighting Illini are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Plus, the road team is on a 4-0 ATS run in this series. Take the points.

4* Major NBA Game of the Night on Jazz +5
Bottom Line: The Celtics are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite. The Jazz, meanwhile, are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less. With Kirilenko, Millsap, Jefferson and Favors, the Jazz have plenty of front court depth and talent to take Boston down to the wire tonight. The Celtics don't have nearly as much size and depth up front following their trade of Kendrick Perkins, especially since Shaq and Jermaine O'Neal are yet to return from injury. Boston's bench will be even thinner tonight with Delonte West expected to be held out with an ankle injury. Look for the Jazz to get the cover in their first home game following the All-Star break.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB Primetime Punisher (ESPN) on Villanova +5
Bottom Line: Following back-to-back defeats, Nova will be extremely motivated when it takes the floor tonight. The Wildcats have been solid on the road this season, winning 7 of 10 true road games, and they haven't had any problem against Notre Dame. Nova has won each of the last 2 meetings by 17 and 18 points respectively. Looking back, the Wildcats have taken 10 of the last 14, winning those contests by an average score of 80-70. The Wildcats are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less. Look for Nova to get the cover as they play with a sense of desperation tonight.

4* Major Big Ten Super System Power Play on Northwestern +12
Bottom Line: Strongly believe the Wildcats will be the more motivated team today, so they are showing good value catching this many points. NW was absolutely embarrassed by Wisconsin to the tune of 78-46 last month, and it will be further motivated by a poor performance against Penn State in its last game. Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (WISCONSIN) - off a win against a conference rival and up against an opponent that is off an upset loss at home by 10 points or more, are 71-34 ATS since 1997. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Monster Line Mistake on Lakers pk
Bottom Line: With Jeff Green no longer on the roster, and with Kendrick Perkins (the guy they traded him for) not yet able to play due to injury), the Lakers should be laying several points here. I strongly feel getting them at a pick is a gift. LA already had a big advantage in the paint over the Thunder, which is the reason why OKC traded for Perkins. I expect the Lakers to take advantage of their size in this one. LA has won 11 of the last 14 in this series. Take the Lakers.

5* Wiseguy Big East *BLOOD BATH* (ESPN) on Villanova -6
Bottom Line: St. John's has defeated 3 straight ranked opponents, which has fed into their hype, but it can't be overlooked that all 3 of those wins came at home. The Red Storm hasn't had the same fortune on the road against high-caliber opponents, losing to Notre Dame, Louisville and Georgetown by an average of 21.7 points. Plus, the Red Storm have lost six straight to Villanova by an average of 12.1 points. Lastly, plays against road teams listed as an underdog or pick (ST JOHNS) off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival and up against an opponent that is coming off an upset loss, are 43-19 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting this system are winning by 9.6 points on average. Lay the points.

4* Major Big 12 Blowout on Oklahoma State -8.5
Bottom Line: This is a game the Cowboys want badly, as they have lost 4 in a row overall and lost by 1 at Tech last month. I'll gladly take the plunge, considering Oklahoma State is 8-1 ATS all-time under coach Travis Ford as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. The Cowboys are winning these contests by an average of 16.2 ppg. Lay the points.

4* Major SEC Shocker on Auburn +4
Bottom Line: With Arkansas in a letdown spot following a big upset win over Kentucky, this is the perfect time to hop on the Tigers. Besides, Auburn is a perfect 6-0 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons, winning these contests by an average score of 67.4 to 63.1. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Friday Night *BLOOD BATH* on Trail Blazers -6.5
Bottom Line: This is a big letdown spot for the Nuggets following last night's win over the Celtics. It is also tough to win in Portland and this is the first road game for the Nuggets following their blockbuster trade. Don't expect the road to bring the same good fortune. The this series has been dominated by the home team in terms of the point spread. In fact, the home team have covered the spread in 10 of the last 11 meetings. Also, Denver is just 11-23 ATS in the second games of a back-to-back over the last 2 seasons and 16-28 ATS after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Blazers fell by 19 at Denver earlier this month, so don't expect them to show the Nuggets any mercy tonight. Lay the points.

4* Major NBA *Underdog Shocker* on T-Wolves +5.5
Bottom Line: The T-Wolves have given the Hornets fits this season. They won by 15 at home in December and by 12 in New Orleans earlier this month. I love their chances again tonight as the Hornets are expected to be without David West. The Hornets are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. The Hornets are also just 5-21 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Take the points.

4* Major NBA on TNT Bailout on Celtics -4.5
Bottom Line: The C's have the advantage in this one as they take on a Denver team looking to break in a whole new cast of players. Last night, we played against the Knicks, as Melo and Billups made their debuts, to earn a nice cover with the Bucks +7.5. Those two did some nice things, but it was evident that New York had some chemistry issues. That's expected in the first few games with a new team, and I believe Denver will go through it tonight. Boston's last two wins over Denver have come by 16 and 14 points. Expect the well-oiled Celtics to take advantage of the new-look Nuggets in this one.

5* Wiseguy NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Year (TNT) on Heat -2.5
Bottom Line: The Bulls have been tough to take at home this season, but this is a tough spot for them. They used a lot of energy in last night's loss to Toronto. The Bulls didn't have Noah when they defeated the Heat by 3 points last month. Miami, however, didn't have King James, and Bosh also missed the majority of that one. Motivated to avenge that loss, and with the big three intact, expect Miami to prevail this evening. Plays on road teams when the line is +3 to -3 (MIAMI), good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season, after a blowout win by 20 points or more, are an impressive 91-49 ATS since 1996. Lay the points with the Heat tonight.