4* Major NBA "Total" Bailout on Nets/Warriors UNDER 208.5

Bottom Line: The Golden State defense wasn't nearly good enough last game against San Antonio, and I expect the Warriors to do something about it. They are 11-2 UNDER the last 2 seasons in home games after allowing 110 points or more last game and have held opponents to an average of just 93.5 points in this spot. Golden State is also 13-2 UNDER the last 2 seasons after a home game where both it and its opponent scored 100 points or more. We have seen only 199.1 total points scored on average in this situation. Bet the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons +7

Bottom Line: The Pistons are off to a slow start, but they are a talented team and it's only a matter of time before they start clicking. They'll be confident here as they go up against a Washington team they have had a great deal of success against, and I'm not hesitating to take them getting a big number. They are 18-5 in the last 23 meetings. The Pistons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a winning home record while the Wizards are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 home games versus a team with a losing road record. The Wizards are also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest. Pound the Pistons.

4* Major NBA *BEST BET* on Magic +11

Bottom Line: Orlando won't have Toronto's full attention tonight. The Raptors have won 8 straight in the series, including a 13-point win Nov. 1 and will be looking ahead to Thursday's showdown with the Bulls as a result. Double-digit dog off 2 or more consecutive overs that average 92-98 ppg and are playing a team that allows 92-98 ppg are 41-15 ATS the last 5 seasons.

4* Major NBA *BEST BET* on Knicks +1.5

Bottom Line: The Knicks lost in Atlanta by 7 points Saturday, but we are catching a good number at home in the rematch. This line is factoring in fatigue for the Knicks, who are playing their 5th game in 7 days, but I don't see it being an issue this early in the season. History supports my opinion. When the line is +3 to -3, teams playing a 5th game in 7 days in the month of November are 64-26 (71%) ATS since 1996. The home team is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings, and the Knicks have won 26 of 34 at home against the Hawks dating back to 1996.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Lakers +3.5

Bottom Line: This is a good spot for the Lakers to pick up their first win of the season. They have had four days to rest their bodies and prepare for the Hornets. I expect LA to be very determined. The underdog is 15-3 ATS in the last 18 meetings.

4* Major Pacific Division *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Suns +1

Bottom Line: The Warriors are 5-0 SU and ATS on the season and are being overvalued by odds makers because of it. Playing against road teams in Sunday that have beaten the spread by 42 points or more in their last 5 games has resulted in a 20-6 ATS record over the last 5 seasons. The Suns won both home meetings in last season's series, and the home side is 6-1 ATS in the last 7.

4* MAJOR NBA *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Clippers -4

Bottom Line: The Clippers have yet to cover a spread this season, but now is the time to back them. Consider that teams with a win percentage of 51-60% that have failed to cover the spread in 5 or more consecutive games are an impressive 71-37 ATS the last 18 years. Doc Rivers wasn't at all happy with how his team performed at Golden State last time out, and he made it well known. The Clippers respect their head coach, and I expect them to answer the bell.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Mavs -3.5

Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from Utah following Wednesday's buzzer-beating win over the Cavs. Dallas took it on the chin in Portland last night and will be chomping at the bit to get back on the floor against a Utah team it defeated 120-102 Oct. 30. Playing against November home dogs off a close home win of 3 points or less has produced a perfect 11-0 ATS record the last 5 seasons.

5* Wiseguy NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Suns -5

Bottom Line: The Kings crushed Denver Wednesday but are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Suns lost by double digits to Memphis the same night but are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Suns are 10-1 ATS at home when the total is between 205 and 209.5 under Hornacek, and they have won these games by 11.0 points on average.

4* Major ESPN *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Thunder +7.5

Bottom Line: No Durant or Westbrook, but the Thunder still have enough fire power to keep this one within this generous number. The Thunder are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.

4* Major NBA on TNT *BEST BET* on Spurs +4

Bottom Line: The Spurs played last night but had 4 days off prior and are playing just their 4th game of the season so fatigue shouldn't be an issue. The Rockets are playing their 6th game overall and 3rd in 4 days so I don't see an advantage for them in terms of fresh legs. Because Houston is undefeated and because it swept the season series last season, I expect the defending champs to get up for this one. The Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing without rest. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

4* Major NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons -4

Bottom Line: I like the Pistons to finally break into the win column tonight. They've had 3 days to prepare for this game while the Knicks are being asked to play their 2nd game in as many nights. The Knicks are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a double-digit loss at home. The favorite is a perfect 10-0 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Dominator on Suns/Lakers UNDER 215

Bottom Line: The Lakers have gone over the total in each of their last 3 games with at least 218 total points scored in each. And, these teams combined for 218 total points when they met last week. Yet, odds makers have set a total 3 points lower, which means they're begging for action on the over. We won't bite. When the total is 210 or higher, playing the UNDER on teams like the Lakers that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent and are off a road loss of 20 points or more has resulted in an 83-43 (66%) record since 1996. Pound the UNDER.

4* Major NBA *PUNISHER* on Blazers +3

Bottom Line: Excluding pushes, Portland is 85-56 ATS over its last 141 games as a home underdog of 6 points or less and has only lost by an average of 0.4 points in these contests. The Blazers were 31-10 at home in the regular season last season so they aren't used to losing at home. Sunday's home loss to the Warriors should provide all the motivation they need. Grab the points.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Nuggets -7

Bottom Line: Following consecutive big wins over the Blazers and Clippers, expect a letdown from the Kings in Denver tonight. The Kings are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a win while the Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss. Sacramento is also on a 65-91 ATS slide in road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. The Kings are 3-8-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Bet Denver.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on 76ers +9.5

Bottom Line: I like the 76ers at home catching nearly double digits against a Houston team that's riding high from a 3-0 start. With the Heat, Spurs and Warriors this week, the Rockets will have a tough time focusing on the task at hand. Besides, home court has been huge in this matchup with the home side going 6-0 ATS in the last 6. Pound Philly.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Trailblazers -3.5

Bottom Line: It looks like the Warriors will again be without David Lee, and it finally hurts them here. Lee will be missed against a Portland team that will expose the Warriors down low with Aldridge, Lopez and Kaman. Bogut is a good interior defender, but he can't handle all these guys on his own, which is basically what is being asked of him tonight. The Blazers should also be the fresher team as they had yesterday off while the Warriors played last night and traveled. Pound Portland.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Hornets +4

Bottom Line: The Knicks are getting a little too much respect following their win over Cleveland. New York is on a 3-14 ATS slide at home in the first half of the season while the Hornets are on an 11-2 ATS run in first half of the season road games. Charlotte is coming off a loss in Memphis last night but is on a 27-14 ATS run following defeat and 4-1 ATS in its last five after being held to less than 75 points. The Knicks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 2 days' rest. The Hornets are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in New York.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz +2

Bottom Line: Tough spot for Phoenix as it hits the road for the first time this season following a huge win over the Spurs. This one has letdown written all over it for the Suns, who are 0-2 in their last 2 versus the Jazz and 1-4 in their last 4 in Utah. They are 1-4-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and have dropped 23 of 35 in Salt Lake City. Pound Utah.
 

4* Major Eastern Conference *SUREFIRE* on Magic +6.5

Bottom Line: This is a look-ahead spot for Toronto which will be much more concerned about tomorrow's content in Miami than an Orlando team it has defeated 7 straight times. The Magic have been competitive at home in the series, though, losing the last 2 in Orlando by only 2 and 5 points, respectively. The Raptors are 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a win and 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 games versus a team with a losing record. Bet the Magic.

5* Wiseguy NBA Game of the Week on Kings +6

Bottom Line: The Kings were horrible in their opener, shooting just 30.8% from the field and committing 26 turnovers. We're getting a great number here because of it, and rest assured they'll put forth a much better effort tonight. The Kings won 123-119 as a 5-point dog the last time Portland visited. And, they lost by a single point in Portland in the most recent meeting so I'll gladly take the points here. The Kings are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Trail Blazers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a win of more than 10 points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Pound Sacramento.

4* Major NBA *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Cavs +4.5

Bottom Line: The Bulls rolled the same Knicks team that beat Cleveland last night. So the Bulls should roll tonight, right? If that's your strategy, it's going to be a long season. LeBron James was embarrassed last night, and I expect a massive effort as he looks to save face. The Bulls still have some jelling to do as well with Rose back and Gasol added to the mix. It may not have looked like it against the Knicks, but New York was horrible that night. Chicago has been the worst home favorite in the NBA lately, going 26-44 ATS in the role the last 2 seasons. Bet the Cavs.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Knicks +13

Bottom Line: The Knicks were smoked last night by a Chicago Bulls team that can really defend. I expect them to shoot the basketball much better tonight. The Cavs are loaded with talent, but it will take them some time to jell on both ends of the floor. The Knicks are a fantastic 14-5 ATS in their last 19 Thursday games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after a loss greater than 10 points. Pound New York.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Kings +4

Bottom Line: This is a game the Kings have been looking forward to. They were embarrassed 102-69 at Golden State last April and will be highly motivated as a result. Sacramento is 24-11 in its last 35 home games versus the Warriors, and it has won or lost by fewer than 4 points in 7 of its last 10 home games in the series. Pound the Kings.

4* Major NBA *PUBLIC MASSACRE* on Jazz +3.5

Bottom Line: The public is piling on the Rockets following their easy win over the Lakers, but Houston is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games following a double-digit victory and 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing without a days' rest.

4* Major NBA *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on Pistons +6.5

Bottom Line: The Pistons underachieved last season and that is showing up in this line. I expect them to be greatly improved under Stan Van Gundy. The Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 versus Western Conference opponents and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Lakers +6

Bottom Line: After winning last season's first meeting by a point, the Lakers were crushed by Houston in the final 3 matchups of the season. Those lopsided losses assure us LA will be lacking no motivation on opening night. I expect a strong performance from Kobe Bryant, who will be out to silence doubters. The Lakers are 50-33 versus Houston since 1996, including 29-15 at home. Bet LA.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Mavs +4.5

Bottom Line: Dallas has been an awesome road play under coach Carlisle and is 51-26 ATS all-time under his watch in road games played in the first half of the season. It is 72-40 ATS under Carlisle as a road underdog of 6 points or less, including 24-11 ATS in this role the past 2 seasons. For the Spurs, opening night will be about honoring last season's achievement. For the Mavs, it will be about revenge. They pushed the Spurs to the limit in last season's playoffs and will be out for a little payback. Pound the Mavericks.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals GM 5 *BEST BET* on Heat +6

Bottom Line: The two-time defending champs won't go down without a fight.  I expect them to take San Antonio right down to the wire with a chance to pull out the victory in Game 5.  Miami is 29-13 ATS when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons, 13-3 ATS off a home loss over the last 2 seasons and 24-9 ATS in road games off a loss of 20 points or more since 1996.  The Heat know they have to do a better job on the boards.  A big reason why they won Game 2 is because they won the rebounding battle.  They came up with just 35 boards last game but are 9-0 ATS the last 2 seasons in road games after a game of 35 rebounds or less.  They have won by an average of 12.9 points in this spot.  Lastly, the Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 2 days' rest.  Pound the Heat.

4* Major NBA Finals GM 4 "Total" Line Mistake on Spurs/Heat UNDER 197.5

Bottom Line: Despite historic first-half shooting from the Spurs (59.4% for the game) and 51.6% shooting from Miami, we saw only 203 total points scored in GM 3. That's less than 2 3-pointers more than the number we are getting here.  I'm willing to bet my hard-earned money that neither teams shoots nearly as good in GM 4 with the law of averages kicking in and the defenses ratcheting it up a notch.  The UNDER is 12-5 in the Spurs' last 17 games following a win of more than 10 points and 7-3 in the Heat's last 10 games following a loss of more than 10 points.  Plays UNDER on road teams when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points that have a win percentage of 60-75% on the season and have beaten the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games has resulted in a 26-8 record the last 3 seasons.  Bet the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Heat -5

Bottom Line: Miami played well in Game 3, the Spurs just happened to set a Finals record for first-half shooting.  Because the Heat were playing catch-up from the start in Game 3 and because they know this is basically a must-win game, they will come out with the type of fury we are used to seeing from them following a loss.  The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss, and they have an average winning margin of 9.6 points in these games.  Additionally, Miami is 13-2 ATS following any home loss over the last 2 seasons and has won by an average of 13.4 points in these games.  The Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Miami lost its first home game against the Spurs in last year's Finals and then won its next three.  2 of those wins came by 7+ points.  Pound the Heat.

4* Major NBA Finals GM 3 "Total" DOMINATOR on Spurs/Heat UNDER 198

Bottom Line: Miami tightened the screws defensively in Game 2, and the score came in under the number as a result.  We saw 194 total points scored in Game 2, and it would have been even less had the teams not gone off from 3-point land again.  The Spurs are an amazing 25 for 51 (49%) from beyond the arc in the series, but I don't see the hot shooting continuing in Miami.  The Spurs have made an average of just 5.7 3-pointers in their last 3 games in Miami. The UNDER is 25-11 in the last 36 meetings overall and 13-5 in the last 18 meetings in Miami.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals GM 3 *BEST BET* on Heat -4.5

Bottom Line: The Heat are 40-9 at home this season, including 8-0 in the playoffs.  They are 29-5 at home in the playoffs since the start of the 2012 postseason and are 11-0 in their last 11 home playoff games going back to last year's Finals.  These 11 victories carry an 11.6-point average margin of victory.  The Spurs have shown some weakness on the road where they are 2-7 ATS in their last 9.  They've lost 3 of their last 4 on the road in these playoffs with the 3 defeats coming by 11, 9 and 13.  The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a winning road record.  Pound Miami.

4* Major NBA Finals GM 2 *SUREFIRE* on Heat +4.5

Bottom Line: Miami wants a 3-peat just as badly as San Antonio wants revenge, and I'm not hesitating to back the Heat plus the points in this bounce-back spot.  The Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss and 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a loss of more than 10 points.  The Spurs are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 2 days' rest.  Playing against home favorites that outscore opponents by an average of 6.0 ppg or more on the season has resulted in a 94-53 ATS record the last 5 seasons if they are up against an opponent that allowed 110 points or more in its last game.  The Heat were going good in Game 1 until LeBron James started having cramping issues.  They'll come storming back here.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals Total of the Year on Heat/Spurs UNDER 199

Bottom Line: The Spurs have finished OVER the total in back-to-back games.  The Heat are 4-0-1 OVER in their last five.  These trends are significant because teams that are off 2 or more consecutive OVERS and matched up against an opponent off 4 of more consecutive OVERS are on a 125-69 UNDERS run the last 5 seasons (note: this system excludes pushes).  The UNDER is 11-5 in the Spurs' last 16 games following a win of more than 10 points and 6-1 in the Heat's last 7 games when playing on 2 days' rest.  GM 1 would have gone under easily if the Spurs and Heat didn't combine for 25 made 3-point shots.  We hadn't seen more than 18 total 3-point makes in the previous 4 meetings so I definitely don't expect the long balls to fall so often in GM 2.  Additionally, Miami will place a big emphasis on the defensive end after allowing San Antonio to shoot 58.8% from the floor.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals GM 1 "Total" DOMINATOR on Heat/Spurs UNDER 199

Bottom Line: When the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, playing the UNDER on teams that scored 110 points or more in 2 straight games (San Antonio) has resulted in a 24-6 (80%) record since 1996 if they are matched up against an opponent that scored 60 points or more in the first half last game.  We've seen an average of only 182.9 total points scored in this situation.  This number is off the mark considering these teams have combined for 198 points or fewer at the end of regulation in 3 of the last 4 matchups.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals GM 1 PUNISHER on Spurs -4

Bottom Line: Last year's NBA Finals loss to the Heat is all the motivation the Spurs will need in Game 1.  San Antonio has been unbeatable at home in the playoffs.  It is 8-0 in its last 8 home games with a 21.5-point average margin of victory in these contests.  Each of these wins came by at least 6 points.  Additionally, the home team is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings with an average winning margin of 11.2 points.  Pound the Spurs.

5* Wiseguy GM 6 *BEST BET* on Thunder -158

Bottom Line: I'm taking the Thunder on the money line to rule out any sort of backdoor ATS loss in a game I fully expect them to win.  OKC has complete confidence at home where it is on a 9-0 run versus the Spurs.  All 9 wins have come by at least 6 points.  The Spurs are 0-3 in their last 3 road games, losing these contests by 11.0 points on average.  The Thunder are 4-0 in their last 4 at home, winning these by 8.5 points on average. The home team is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings with all 6 wins combing by 9 points or more.  Pound the Thunder.

4* Major NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Pacers/Heat UNDER 182.5

Bottom Line: With all that's on the line for both teams, I expect a tense, slow-paced, defensive-minded game to come in under the number.  We saw only 175 total points scored when these teams met in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals last year.  The Pacers are an incredible 34-15 UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season.

5* Wiseguy GM 6 *BEST BET* on Pacers +7.5

Bottom Line: The Pacers are being undervalued on the road because of what happened in the first 2 games of this series in Miami.  They lost them both by 12 points, but they weren't facing elimination in either.  Teams staring elimination in the face tend to play with desperation.  We saw that from Indiana last game, and we saw it in their first round series against Atlanta.  After losing highly competitive series' to the Heat the past 2 seasons, Indiana made a concerted effort to get home court so that it would have the edge in another playoff series.  It knows its gets a Game 7 at home so it will leave it all on the floor tonight in hopes of getting an opportunity to play a Game 7 in its own building.  Indiana cannot stomach losing in the playoffs to the Heat 3 consecutive seasons so I'm expecting an outstanding effort.  Additionally, the Pacers have started to figure out the Heat.  After allowing Miami to shoot above 50% in the first 3 games, they have held the Heat to 46.4% and 45.3% in the last two.  Indiana has won or lost by fewer than 7.5 points in 6 of the last 9 meetings and 12 of the last 19.  Pound the Pacers.

4* Major GM5 *SUREFIRE* on Spurs -4.5

Bottom Line: Look for the Spurs to bounce back strong at home where they are on a 7-0 run in these playoffs.  Each of these 7 wins came by 6 points or more with the last 6 by no less than 17 points.  The home team is a dominant 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings, including a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS in the last 5.  Each of these 5 victories came by at least 9 points. 

5* Wiseguy NBA Western Conference Finals Total of the Year on Thunder/Spurs OVER 206

Bottom Line: The last 3 games of this series have come in under the number, and we are catching a very favorable number as a result, especially in San Antonio where these teams have averaged 211.3 points over the past 4 meetings.  The Spurs are 20-7 OVER after 3 or more consecutive unders the last 3 seasons.  They are 18-9 OVER in home games when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season.  The Spurs are 6-2 OVER in their last 8 home games and 12-3 OVER in their last 15 games following a loss of more than 10 points.  The Thunder are 5-0 OVER in their last 5 games following a win of more than 10 points.  Pound the OVER.

4* Major NBA *SUREFURE* on Pacers +3

Bottom Line: Look for Indiana to rise to the occasion and extend this series.  Home court has been too meaningful in this matchup to ignore.  The home team is 11-1 in the last 12 meetings.  Additionally, when the line is +3 to -3, home teams playing with triple revenge against an opponent off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite has resulted in a 69-37 ATS record since 1996. 

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Line Mistake on Heat/Pacers UNDER 185

Bottom Line: We've seen 186 and 192 total points scored in the last 2 games of this series, but both of those were in Miami.  These teams are on a 4-1 UNDERS run in Indiana where they have combined to average just 176.4 points during this span.  Indiana is 19-7 UNDER in home games when the total is 180.0-189.5 this season.  We've seen an average of just 181.1 total points scored in these games.  Expect a slow-paced, defensive war in this elimination game.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy GM4 *BEST BET* on Thunder -140

Bottom Line: I fully expect the Thunder to cover the 2.5 points, but I'm taking them on the money line for insurance.  The return of Ibaka made a huge difference in Game 3, and his presence will be felt again.  Plus, coach Brooks' decision to play Reggie Jackson alongside Westbrook and to give Steven Adams extended minutes paid off as well.  We'll see more of the same tonight.  After getting Game 3, the Thunder will be lacking no confidence, especially in this building where they are 8-0 SU and ATS in their last 8 versus the Spurs.  They have won these by an average of 10.9 points.  Pound the Thunder.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +6.5

Bottom Line: Indiana is a team of response, going 31-17 ATS the last 2 seasons following a road loss.  Recently, the Pacers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following any loss.  They have really responded well following embarrassing double-digit defeats.  In fact, they are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of 10 points or more and have won these contests by 6.0 points on average.  Prior to Game 3, these teams had traded wins in 13 consecutive games which shows how competitive this series has been.  We'll pound the Pacers catching points in this double-revenge spot.

5* Wiseguy Eastern Conference Finals Total of the Year on Pacers/Heat UNDER 184

Bottom Line: Indiana hasn't been at its best defensively in this series, and it knows it.  That's why it is currently facing a 2-1 series deficit.  After allowing the Heat to connect on 54.4% of their shots in Game 3, the Pacers will tighten the screws tonight.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Indiana's last 6 games following a loss and 7-3 in its last 10 games following a loss of more than 10 points.  The Pacers are 34-14 UNDER on the season when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points.  We've seen an average of just 180.8 total points scored in these games.  Miami's defense has been solid the past 2 games, holding the Pacers to just 83 and 87 points.  The Heat are 23-11 UNDER in home games after holding foes to 90 points or less in 2 straight games under coach Spoelstra.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Game of the Year on Thunder -2

Bottom Line: The Spurs have looked unstoppable thus far in the series, but Kevin Durant and company won't go down without a fight.  With the home crowd behind them, the Thunder will come storming back in Game 3.  OKC is 7-0 SU and ATS in its last 7 home games versus the Spurs, winning these by 11.1 points on average.  The Spurs have been unconscious at home lately, but the road hasn't treated them nearly as well.  They are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.  Pound the Thunder.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Pacers +7

Bottom Line: The Pacers aren't getting the respect they deserve with this number, even if Paul George can't go.  They are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last 5 road games, winning them by an average of 9.6 points.  They are also 7-0 in their last 7 games following a defeat, winning these contests by 7.1 points on average.  Indiana has won or lost by fewer than 7 points in 5 of its last 6 games versus Miami.  Grab the points.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Thunder/Spurs UNDER 212

Bottom Line: The Thunder will make a concerted effort to keep San Antonio out of the paint after what happened in Game 1.  In order to do so, they'll play a bigger lineup, and they'll ask their smalls to do a better job of defending the drive on the perimeter.  This strategy will force the Spurs to take more perimeter shots, which should lower the shooting percentage and keep this one under the number.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the Thunder's last 5 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, 9-4 in their last 13 games following a SU loss, 11-5 in their  last 16 games following an ATS loss and 5-2 in their last 7 games following a loss of more than 10 points. 

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Thunder +6

Bottom Line: The Spurs were able to take advantage of Ibaka being out in Game 1, but I expect the Thunder to make the necessary adjustments.  OKC went small in Game 1, but it will do so in shorter stretches tonight.  I expect Nick Collison and Steven Adams to be very active on the defensive end and on the glass.  Playing them together will allow the Thunder to match up better at the defensive end. We can't forget that the Thunder are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings and 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13.  The Thunder are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Spurs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.  Pound OKC.

5* Wiseguy Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Year on Heat -138

Bottom Line: I'm confident the Heat will bounce back, and while I fully expect them to cover the 2.5 points, I'm protecting my investment by taking them on the money line at what I consider to be a pretty nice price.  Every point counts, especially this time of year.  The Heat are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss of more than 10 points.  They are also 26-11 ATS the last 2 seasons when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent.  The Pacers are 18-37-1 ATS in their last 56 games overall, 5-14 ATS in their last 19 home games, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games versus a team with a winning road record and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a win of more than 10 points.  Indiana is 2-11 ATS off an upset win as a home dog under coach Vogel, and it has lost by an average of 8.8 points in this spot.  When the line is +3 to -3, playing against road teams that went over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game has resulted in a 37-6 ATS record the last 5 seasons if they have a win percentage of 60-75% and are playing a winning team.  This system tightens up to 24-2 ATS over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 ATS this season.  Pound Miami.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Heat/Pacers UNDER 185

Bottom Line: Neither team played much defense in Game 1, as evidenced by each squad shooting 51+% from the floor.  I expect a huge commitment on the defensive end from both teams here.  That's been the norm in this matchup as we saw combined scores of 184, 167, 191, 174, 175, 168 and 169 in the 7 meetings prior to Game 1.  The Pacers are 18-7 UNDER this season in home games with a total of 180 to 189.5 points.  Just 181.6 points were scored on average in these games.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy GM1 *BEST BET* on Spurs -5.5

Bottom Line: The Spurs are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last 4 home games with these wins coming by 23, 24, 17 and 22 points.  They are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a win of more than 10 points and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games following a cover.  San Antonio is 29-15 ATS the last 3 seasons in home games against winning teams in the 2nd half of the season.  It has defeated these teams by an average of 10.6 points.  The Spurs lost all 4 regular-season meetings, but Ibaka was a huge part of OKCs success in those games, especially on the defensive end.  Without Ibaka patrolling the paint, Parker and San Antonio's slashers will have a much easier time getting to the rim.  Additionally, getting swept will only add to San Antonio's level of focus in Game 1.  The favorite is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Pound the Spurs.

5* Wiseguy GM1 *BEST BET* on Pacers +3.5

Bottom Line: The Pacers are being undervalued at home because they have looked vulnerable at times in the past two rounds.  However, we can't forget that basketball is all about matchups, and Indiana has given the Heat big problems with its size and toughness.  The Pacers looked complacent at times down the stretch of the regular season and in the first two rounds, but you can bet they won't in this series.  They knew all along the road to a championship goes through Miami, and they'll be highly focused and motivated after getting knocked out of the playoffs by the Heat the past two seasons.  I'll gladly take the points considering how dominant the home team has been in this matchup.  The home side is on a perfect 8-0 run, and Indiana's home wins during this span have come by an average of 7.0 points.  Pound the Pacers.

4* Major NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Thunder/Clippers OVER 212.5

Bottom Line: After back-to-back unders the last 2 games, the value has shifted back to the over, especially since we are getting the lowest total line of the series.  The OVER is 6-1 in the Clippers' last 7 games following a loss and 5-1 in the Thunder's last 6 games following a win.  The OVER is 7-1 in LAs last 8 home games and 19-3 in its last 22 home games as a favorite of 6 points or less.  OKC is 16-6 OVER in road games following a home game this season.  Bet the OVER.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +4.5

Bottom Line: Washington can't trusted laying this many points at home against an Indiana squad that will be highly motivated after laying an egg in Game 5.  The Wizards are 11-20 ATS as a home favorite this season and 13-26 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less the last 3 seasons.  The Wizards have won by only 0.4 points on average in these 39 instances.  The Pacers are 19-9 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons and have won these by an average of 0.9 points.  The Pacers have quietly won 4 in a row SU and ATS on the road, and I expect this trend to continue.  Pound the Pacers.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Total of the Week on Nets/Heat UNDER 189

Bottom Line: I fully expect to see a half-court, grind-it-out defensive battle in Game 5.  The Nets lost Game 4 as they allowed Miami to shoot 52.9% from the field, and they know they must tighten the screws if they are going to live to see another day.  I expect a very gritty performance from them.  I also expect to see Miami's killer instinct kick in.  The Heat want to end the series tonight so they can have a rest advantage against their Conference Finals foe.  They have held Brooklyn below 44% shooting 2 of the last 3 games, and they'll be dialed in defensively with a chance to punch their Conference Finals ticket.  These teams have finished UNDER the total in 6 of their last 7 meetings in Miami while combining for an average of 184 total points in these matchups so we are getting a great number here.  Pound the UNDER.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Clippers +5.5

Bottom Line: The Clippers carry a lot of momentum into Game 5 after rallying back from a 22-point deficit in Game 4 to even the series.  Despite winning the game, the Clippers failed to cover the spread, and the road team is now 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings with 4 of the wins coming outright.  The Clippers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 road matchups with the Thunder and 12-4 ATS this season after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games.  In a game involving teams with winning percentages of 60-75%, playing against teams like OKC that are off a cover in a game they lost straight up has resulted in a 77-40 ATS record the last 18 seasons.  Grab the points in a game that should go right down to the wire.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Wizards/Pacers UNDER 181

Bottom Line: When the total line is between 180 and 189.5 points, plays UNDER on home teams with a winning percentage of 60-75% that are off 2 or more consecutive road wins has resulted in a 75-36 record the last 18 seasons.  We've seen just 179.4 total points scored in these games on average.  Indiana is 28-19 UNDER at home this season, including 17-6 UNDER at home when the total line is between 180 and 189.5 points.  Washington is 28-15 UNDER the last 3 seasons in road games when playing with double revenge.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these teams in Indiana.  Pound the UNDER.

4* Major NBA Playoffs *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on Blazers +4

Bottom Line: Playing against favorites that are leading in a playoffs series has resulted in a 36-12 ATS record since 1996, provided they have a win percentage of 75% or greater and are playing a team with a win percentage of 60% to 75%).  This system tightens up to 5-1 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  The Spurs are still 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and 4-10 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Portland, and they are laying too many points here against a team that will be playing desperate.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs "Total" Blowout on Spurs/Blazers UNDER 211

Bottom Line: Each of the first 3 games of this series have gone over the totals, and the Spurs have finished over the number in 6 straight going back to their first round series.  We are getting an excellent number here as a result, especially since the first 2 games of this series were below and at this number.  Playing the UNDER on any team after 3 or more consecutive overs that is up against an opponent off 4 or more consecutive overs has resulted in a 73-33 record the last 5 seasons.  When the total is greater than or equal to 210, playing the UNDER on any team that has given up 110 points or more in 3 consecutive games and is coming off a game with a combined score of 205 points or more has resulted in a 35-15 ATS record the last 5 seasons.  When the total is greater than or equal to 200, playing the UNDER on road teams that are off a win of 15 points or more and are up against an opponent off a loss of 15 points or more has resulted in a 36-12 record the last 5 seasons.  Additionally, the Spurs are 17-3 UNDER after 4 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better over the last 2 seasons.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Pacers/Wizards OVER 180

Bottom Line: The Wizards are 24-10 OVER the last 18 seasons when out for revenge for a home loss of 20 points or more.  We have seen an average of 202 total points scored in these games.  Washington is also 18-6 OVER after 2 straight games where both it and its opponent scored 90 points or less the last 18 seasons.  We've seen 196.8 total points scored on average in these contests.  Indiana is 21-8 OVER in road games off a road win under coach Vogel, and we've seen an average of 195 total points in these games. The Wizards let the Pacers dictate a slow pace the last 2 games, and it cost them.  Washington had a lot of success pushing the ball against the Bulls in its opening series, and it will look to do that here because it knows without a doubt that doing so gives it the best chance to win.  An increased tempo greatly favors the OVER. Pound the OVER.

5* Wiseguy GM4 *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Wizards -4.5

Bottom Line: Playing against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that average 92-98 ppg and have held their opponent to 90 points or less in 2 straight games has resulted in a 43-12 ATS record the last 18 seasons if they are up against a team that allows 98-102 ppg.  This system tightens up to 13-1 ATS the last 5 seasons.  Indiana is 0-9 ATS in road games after scoring 90 points or less in 2 straight games under coach Vogel.  It has lost these contests by an average of 12.6 points.  The Wizards are 29-11 ATS the last 2 seasons when out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent.  Pound the Wizards.

4* Major "Total" DOMINATOR on Thunder/Clippers UNDER 215.5

Bottom Line: The Clippers fit into a totals system that has been hitting at a high rate for years.  When the total is greater than or equal to 210, playing the UNDER on teams playing with double revenge has resulted in a 42-17 record the last 18 seasons if they are matched up against an opponent that is off an upset victory.

5* Wiseguy GM4 *BEST BET* on Clippers -4.5

Bottom Line: We'll lay the points with the Clippers at home in this bounce-back spot behind some compelling evidence.  The Clippers are 16-3 ATS this season when out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent.  They have won by an average of 13.0 points in these games.  The Clipps are also 14-2 ATS this season following an upset defeat and have won these contests by an average of 12.9 points.  Lastly, LA is 12-3 ATS this season after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games.  It has won by an average of 14.2 points in this spot.  Pound LA.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Blazers +1.5

Bottom Line: When the line is +3 to -3, playing home teams that are playing with triple revenge has resulted in a 69-36 ATS record the last 18 seasons if they are matched up against an opponent that is off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite.  The Blazers are 9-2 in their last 11 home games versus the Spurs, and they are an impressive 51-31 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less the last 18 seasons.

4* Major NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Spurs/Blazers UNDER 209.5

Bottom Line: When the total is greater than or equal to 200 in the 3rd game of a playoff series, playing the UNDER has resulted in a 68-32 record the last 18 seasons.  Additionally, when the total is greater than or equal to 200, playing the UNDER on road teams off a win of 15 points or more that are up against an opponent off a loss of 15 points or more has resulted in a 36-11 record the last 5 seasons.  The Spurs are 9-1 UNDER after 4 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better this season.  They are also 8-1 UNDER in road games after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite this season.

5* Wiseguy Eastern Conference Semifinals Game of the Year on Nets +1.5

Bottom Line: The Nets are down 0-2, but they aren't about to go down without a fight.  I fully expect this experienced group to bounce back at home in Game 3.  The Nets are 18-3 at home since February.  Plus, they are 10-1 ATS this season in home games when playing with double revenge and have won these games by an average of 8.5 points.  They are also a perfect 9-0 ATS the last 2 seasons after 2 straight losses of 10 points or more and have won these contests by an average of 12.2 points.  Pound Brooklyn.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +4.5

Bottom Line: I'll grab the points with the superior defensive team.  The Pacers have held the opposition to 41.7% shooting or worse in 6 of their last 8 games.  Washington has held its opponents below the 41.7% mark just 2 times in its last 10 games.  Indiana gets in trouble when it gets too reliant on the 3-point shot.  It has diagnosed itself.  It only attempted 12 3's in Game 2 and made an extra-effort to go inside.  It paid off, and I expect the Pacers to stick with the same game plan.  The underdog has now covered each of the past 3 meetings and 5 of the last 7, and I expect this trend to continue.  Pound the Pacers.

5* Wiseguy GM2 *BEST BET* on Blazers +7

Bottom Line: Road teams that score an average of 103 points per game or more on the season are 39-12 ATS the last 18 seasons if they trailed by 20 points or more at halftime of their last game.  This system tightens up to 7-1 ATS the last 3 seasons.  Even with the Game 1 loss, the Blazers have still won 4 of the last 7 meetings.  And, they have lost by more than 7 points just twice in the last 8 meetings with the Spurs.  Pound Portland.

4* Major GM2 *SUREFIRE* on Nets +8

Bottom Line: The Nets ran into a buzz saw in Game 1 as they were still emotionally and physically drained from their opening series.  This veteran Nets squad is playoff-tested, and it will be motivated by the poor performance in Game 1, and it won't be lacking any confidence having won each of the 4 regular season battles.  Brooklyn is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games following a loss or more than 10 points.

4* Major "Total" DOMINATOR on Heat/Nets UNDER 192

Bottom Line: 193 total points were scored in Game 1 as these two teams inched over the total, which was set at 192.  But, the pace favored the under.  Miami shot well above normal (56.8%), and the Nets also shot above their season average (47.1%).  Plus, the teams combined for 19 3-point makes.  The Nets average only 8 3-point makes per game on the road, and Miami averages 8 per game at home.  Look for the defensive intensity to pick up in Game 2, and the shots not to fall as easily.  Brooklyn is 19-5 UNDER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons.  An average of only 188.1 points have been scored in these games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these teams in Miami.

4* Major "Total" DOMINATOR on Clippers/Thunder UNDER 215

Bottom Line: Playing the UNDER on road teams when the total is greater than or equal to 200, after a blowout win of 15 points or more and up against an opponent after a blowout loss of 15 points or more, has resulted in a 35-11 record the last 5 seasons.  Additionally, playing the UNDER on home teams when the total is greater than or equal to 210, a team out for revenge for a loss where they allowed 100 points or more and up against an opponent off an upset win of 10 points or more, has resulted in a 29-7 record since 1996.  Bet the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy GM2 *BEST BET* on Thunder -5.5

Bottom Line: The Thunder have been an awesome investment when out for revenge for an upset defeat under coach Brooks, going 54-33 ATS in this spot.  In this spot at home the last 2 seasons, they are 17-7 ATS with an average winning margin of 10.9 points.  Teams headed up by coach Rivers are a dismal 36-59 ATS all-time following a road win of 10 points or more.  The Thunder, meanwhile, are 44-26 ATS under Brooks when out for revenge for a loss of 10 points or more.  Pound OKC.

4* Major GM2 *SUREFIRE* on Pacers -4.5

Bottom Line: Even though the Pacers lost Game 1 of this series, I'm not going to jump ship when they're on their home floor.  The home team is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings, and the Pacers are 12-1 in the last 13 home meetings.  In terms of the spread, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the Pacers are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 home meetings.  The Pacers were outrebounded 65-46, and I don't see that happening again.  They had won the rebounding battle in each of the previous 7 matchups.  Bet the Pacers.

4* Major "Total" DOMINATOR on Wizards/Pacers UNDER 215

Bottom Line: The UNDER is 29-11 in Indiana's games this season when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points, including 16-6 at home.  The Pacers are 12-3 UNDER this season at home when the total is between 185 and 189.5 points, and we have seen just 179.0 total points scored on average in these 15 contests.  Bet the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Heat -7

Bottom Line: Despite losing each of the 4 regular-season meetings with Brooklyn, Miami is laying quite a few points.  That's because Miami will be extremely fresh following a week off and highly focused as it looks to make a statement to Brooklyn that the playoffs are a different animal.  This line is significant because favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for 2 straight losses to an opponent are 54-27 ATS the last 18 seasons if they are up against a team that is off an upset win over a division foe.  Additionally, favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off 2 consecutive wins against a division foe are 39-16 ATS the last 5 seasons.  After a grueling 7-game series, the Nets will run out of gas in the second half.  Pound Miami.

4* Major GM1 "Total" BAILOUT on Clippers/Thunder UNDER 213

Bottom Line: Playing the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200 on all teams that are out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent has resulted in a 34-12 record the last 5 seasons if the matchup features teams with winning percentages of 60-75%.  We've seen an average line of 209.6 in these contests but only 199.6 total points scored on average.  We saw just 208 total points scored the last time these teams met so this line is being influenced by the recent scoring outputs of each team.  But consider that OKC is 12-2 UNDER the last 2 seasons after scoring 120 points or more and the Clippers are 4-1 UNDER in their last 5 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.

5* Wiseguy GM1 *BEST BET* on Pacers -4

Bottom Line: Home court has been huge when these teams get together.  The home team is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings with each of the wins coming by at least 8 points.  Home court has especially been huge for the Pacers when facing the Wizards.  Indiana is 12-0 in its last 12 at home versus Washington with all 12 wins coming by at least 4 points.  Pound the Pacers.

4* Major "Total" Dominator on Mavs/Spurs UNDER 198

Bottom Line: Not much defense was played in Game 6 as both teams shot over 50% from the field.  That will change here.  In Game 1, when both teams were trying to establish themselves in the series, neither shot better than 43.2% and only 175 total points were scored.  I expect buckets to be tough to come by in this one as well with a place in the 2nd round at stake.  Playing the UNDER on road teams that are off an upset win over a division rival, provided they are a winning team playing another winning team and the total line is 190-199.5, has resulted in a 31-9 record since 1996.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Spurs -6

Bottom Line: Look for San Antonio to take care of business at home in Game 7.  The Spurs are 9-1 in their last 10 home games versus the Mavs with the wins coming by an average of 14.3 points.  The Spurs are 23-12 ATS off an upset loss over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 10.0 points in this spot.  They are also 64-46 ATS in home playoff games under coach Popovich, winning these games by an average of 7.0 points.  Pound the Spurs.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies +8

Bottom Line: I believe odds makers aren't giving enough respect to a Memphis team that held Oklahoma City to 39.8% shooting or worse in Games 2-5.  Each of those 4 games went to OT, and I'm expecting another tight game with a place in the Western Conference Semis on the line.  Memphis has won or lost by fewer than 8 points in 12 of its last 16 versus the Thunder.  The Grizz are 14-6 ATS following a loss, 5-1 ATS following a loss of more than 10 points, 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 first-round playoff games and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 at OKC.  The Thunder are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a win of more than 10 points and 1-3-1 in their last 4 in this series.  Pound Memphis.

4* Major NBA Playoffs *BLOOD BATH* on Nets -4.5

Bottom Line: At home, where they have won 17 of their last 20 (17 wins came by 10.9 points on average), I expect the Nets to extend this series.  The Nets are an impressive 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games versus teams that have a winning record.  Additionally, they have thrived in highly motivated spots such as this one.  When at home and out for revenge for two straight losses to an opponent, they are 9-1 ATS this season with an average margin of victory of 8.0 points.  This is the type of game where having experienced winners like Paul Piece and Kevin Garnett really pays off. Bet the Nets.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Raptors/Nets UNDER 191

Bottom Line: Following their worst defensive performance of the series and staring elimination in the face, the Nets will put the clamps on defensively tonight.  The Nets needed to speed up the pace in Game 5 and look for three-point opportunities because these faced a huge deficit.  These two teams combined for 69 points from beyond the arc in the game.  They hadn't combined for more than 42 points from three in any of the other games of the series.  Both prior games played in Brooklyn in the series were played at a very slow pace, and we saw just 166 total points scored in Game 4.  We saw 200 total points scored in Game 3 despite the slow pace, but neither team was getting after it defensively the way they will in this elimination game.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the Nets' last 6 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Toronto is 10-1 UNDER after a close win of 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons.  We have seen only 187.3 total points scored on average in these 11 games.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Warriors +1.5

Bottom Line: Home court has been too big to ignore when these teams get together.  The home team is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings with the 10 wins coming by an average of 17 points.  Golden State is 16-3 in its last 19 home games versus the Clippers, including 6-1 in its last 7.  Combine the 10-2 series home trend and the 16-3 Warriors home trend, and we have a convincing 26-5 trend in our favor.  Additionally, Golden State is 30-15 ATS under coach Mark Jackson after a loss of 10 points or more, including 8-1 ATS in this spot this season with an average winning margin of 15.9 points.  Pound the Warriors.

4* Major GM6 *SUREFIRE* on Thunder -2.5

Bottom Line: The Grizzlies are just 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a win.  The Thunder are 14-3 ATS the last 3 seasons after a close loss of 3 points or less, bouncing back to win by an average of 9.9 points.  Road favorites that are off a home loss and are out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent are 122-75 ATS since 1996.  I expect the Thunder to dig down deep to force a Game 7.

4* Major "Total" DOMINATOR on Hawks/Pacers UNDER 187

Bottom Line: After allowing Atlanta to shoot 50% in Game 5 and with their playoff lives on the line, I expect the Pacers to bring the "D".  The Pacers are 27-10 UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season.  They are 56-28 UNDER when out for revenge for a home loss of 10 points or more since 1996. The Hawks are 31-10 UNDER in home playoff games since 1996.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the Hawks' last 6 home games and 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams in Atlanta.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Rockets -5

Bottom Line: Despite losing the 1st 2 games of the series at home, Houston is still 19-5 in its last 24 on this floor versus the Blazers.  That's too much history to go against, especially in a game where the Rockets will be playing for their playoff lives.  The Blazers have been a poor investment in the postseason, especially when on the road following a win (they are on a 9-21-2 ATS slide in that spot).  They are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 postseason games overall.  Bet the Rockets.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Blazers/Rockets UNDER 214

Bottom Line: Playing the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 210 on all teams that have allowed 100 points or more in 3 straight games has resulted in a 31-12 record the last 5 seasons if they are taking on an opponent that scored 105 points or more last game.  Playing the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200 on home teams that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent has resulted in a 40-15 record the last 5 seasons if the opponent is off a home win of 3 points or less.  Playing the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200 on road teams that are off a home win of 3 points or less and are playing only their 2nd game in 5 days has resulted in a 25-7 record the last 5 seasons.  Game 4 should have finished under the total as only 212 total points were scored prior to OT.  Even with OT, these teams combined for only 175 shots so the pace slowed considerably since Game 3 when they combined for 195 shots.  Pound the UNDER as I expect the defensive intensity to pick up in this elimination game.

5* Wiseguy NBA Western Conference Playoffs Game of the Week on Clippers -5.5

Bottom Line: The Clippers have been dealing with some off-court issues surrounding the team owner.  However, Sunday's 21-point defeat assures us they will be extremely focused and motivated tonight.  The Clippers are an impressive 19-7 ATS following a loss this season, bouncing back to win by an average of 9.8 points in these contests.  They are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games directly following a defeat of more than 10 points.  They are also 13-2 ATS on the season following an upset loss and have responded to win by an average of 13.1 points in this spot.  Teams out for revenge for a road loss of 20 points or more that are off an upset loss of 15 points or more are 38-13 ATS the last 18 seasons.  Pound LA.

4* Major "Total" Dominator on Wizards/Bulls UNDER 184

Bottom Line: These two teams have finished over the total in each of the previous four games of the series, and the UNDER is showing some serious value as a result.  Playing the UNDER on any team after 2 or more consecutive overs that is playing against an opponent that checks in off 5 or more consecutive overs has resulted in a 66-31 record the last 5 seasons.  The Bulls are 31-19 UNDER when the total is 180-189.5 this season, including 18-7 at home when this is the case.  An average of 179.5 total points were scored in these 25 home games so I'm not hesitating to take the UNDER here.

5* Wiseguy NBA Western Conference Playoffs Total of the Year on Spurs/Mavs UNDER 203

Bottom Line: Playing the UNDER on all teams (Dallas in this case) when the total is greater than or equal to 200 has resulted in a 76-33 record the last 5 seasons if they have a winning percentage of 51-60% and are playing a team that has a winning record.  If the team you're playing the UNDER on in the previous situation is at home and the total is between 200-209.5, this system tightens up to 35-12.  Additionally, when the total is greater than or equal to 200, playing the UNDER on all teams that have lost 4 of their last 5 games (San Antonio) has resulted in a 31-12 record the last 5 seasons if they are a winning team playing another winning team.  Lastly, playing the UNDER on all teams when the total is greater than or equal to 200 (San Antonio) that are out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent that is off a close home win of 3 points or less has resulted in a 43-20 record the last 5 seasons.  Pound the UNDER.

4* Major NBA *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on Pacers -6.5

Bottom Line: The Pacers have really tightened the screws defensively, and that bodes extremely well for us as the series shifts back to Indy.  The Pacers are 9-1 ATS in home games the last 2 seasons after 2 straight games of holding foes to 39% shooting or worse.  It has won by an average of 16.8 points in this spot.  The Pacers won 101-85 in their last home game in the series despite Atlanta draining 10 3-pointers, and I expect another double-digit win from the top seed in the East.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Bobcats +7.5

Bottom Line: The Heat will be looking to close out Charlotte tonight, but the Bobcats won't go down without a fight.  I expect them to give Miami all it wants and to keep this one within the generous number.  The Heat are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games while the Bobcats are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games.  The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a cover and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 10 points.  The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points.

4* Major NBA "Total" BAILOUT on Blazers/Rockets UNDER 215

Bottom Line: If the total line is greater than or equal to 210, Playing the UNDER on all teams, Houston in this case, that have allowed 110 points or more in 3 straight games and are up against an opponent that scored 105 points or more last game has resulted in a 31-11 record the last 5 seasons.  We've seen just 207.7 total points scored on average in this situation.

5* Wiseguy NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs 1st Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Raptors/Nets UNDER 192

Bottom Line: I'm pounding the UNDER here as these teams fit into an extremely profitable postseason totals system.  When the total is between 190 and 199.5, playing the UNDER on all teams in the 4th game of a 1st round NBA playoff series has resulted in a 44-14 record since 1996.  We have seen only 185.9 total points scored on average in these games.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Warriors +2

Bottom Line: Look for Golden State to even the series this afternoon.  The Warriors are 8-0 ATS in home games played in the 2nd half of the season versus teams with a winning percentage of 60-70% the last 2 seasons, and they have defeated these teams by 9.5 points on average.  Additionally, when the line is +3 to -3, home teams off a home loss in a game involving teams with win percentages of 60-70% are 46-19 ATS since 1996.  The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 at Golden State.

4* Major "Total" DOMINATOR on Wizards/Bulls UNDER 183.5

Bottom Line: The first 3 games of this series have easily gone over but that changes here.  This game means a lot for both teams and the defensive intensity will kick up a notch as a result.  Playing the UNDER on any team, Chicago in this case, after 2 or more consecutive overs that is up against an opponent that is off 5 or more consecutive overs has resulted in a 42-15 record the last 5 seasons.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Thunder -3

Bottom Line: I'll back the Thunder in this highly motivated spot.  After losing 2 straight to the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year, the Thunder will be out for blood tonight.  Since coach Brooks took over, OKC is 54-32 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, 47-27 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses, 50-32 ATS when out for revenge for 2 straight losses to an opponent and 53-33 ATS when out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent.