Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-22-15 | Boston Celtics v. Portland Trail Blazers -7 | Top | 90-89 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
8* Portland (10:05 ET): Even with the absence of both rest and LaMarcus Aldridge, I don't think the Blazers should have any great difficulty beating up on the slumping Boston Celtics. Portland, who has lost four of five itself (also going 1-4 ATS) is in major need of a drop in class having recently played some of the best teams the Western Conference has to offer. Thankfully, Boston fits the bill and already this season we've seen the Blazers go an impressive 17-2 straight up against the Eastern Conference. The Celtics have lost three in a row coming into tonight and this six-game West Coast swing they're on should pretty much "sink" their season for good. Lay the points. Last night, Portland was in Phoenix and suffered a tough 118-113 defeat. They did cover the 7.5-point spot though, thanks to a big 37-point outburst in the fourth quarter. They were actually leading outright, 110-105, w/ just over two minutes to play. This after giving up 40 first quarter points and falling behind by as many as 25 in the game. Said Nicholas Batum, "Down 25, up five with two minutes to go, you can't lose that game." But the Blazers did and now they figure to return home angry. That's not good news for Boston considering Portland is 19-4 SU at home this season, holding teams to just 93.3 points per game. The Celtics, meanwhile, are allowing 104.2 PPG this season and have just four road wins to speak of, only one of which has come since December 15th. They lost out in LA, 102-93 to the Clippers on Monday, just sneaking inside the 12-point number. That followed a 14-point loss to Atlanta and a 16-point loss to Chicago, both at home. At one point, this was actually one of the highest scoring teams in the league, but since the departure of Rajon Rondo, Boston is averaging just 98.6 PPG and shooting only 42.1% from the field the L8 games. They are also 0-4 in non-conference road games, allowing 110.3 PPG. On the other hand, you have a Portland team that's gone 20-2 vs. sub .500 foes (2nd best record in the league) and 7-2 SU in the second night of back to backs (6-3 ATS). Also, starting in place of Aldridge, Dorell Wright scored a season high 15 points last night. 8* Portland |
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01-22-15 | Maryland v. Indiana | Top | 70-89 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
10* Indiana (9:00 ET): We've got a battle of ranked Big 10 teams here w/ surprising Maryland facing its toughest test on the road to date in its new conference. The 13th ranked Terps have won five of six conference games so far, but that one loss did come on the road at Illinois, a game that was a near pick 'em. We have a similar line tonight in Bloomington and host Indiana has thrived in the past when the line is three points or less (either way) here at Assembly Hall, going 26-9 against the spread, including a perfect 3-0 this season. Just 12 days ago, they beat Ohio State outright, 69-66 as 2-pt home dogs and since that time have won two more times, including a big road win over Illinois on Sunday. I'm going w/ the home team here. I do have to give Maryland some credit for how easily they've assimilated into the Big 10 fold. Incredibly, they've already swept the season series from Michigan State, including a 75-59 win in College Park (-1.5) on Saturday. So far, defense has been the key w/ conference opponents averaging just 68.7 points per game on 37.6 percent shooting. But Indiana and its 81.6 PPG scoring average (12th in the country) will be the best offensive team they've faced yet. For the sake of comparison, Maryland has scored 82 or more points only four times all season and those games came against: Wagner, Central Connecticut State, VMI and Winthrop, all games played in the first month of the season. Even w/ the benefit of double overtime, the Terrapins scored just 68 pts in their first win over Michigan State. Indiana has four losses this season, two of them of the blowout variety (Louisville & Michigan State), but the other two were close, one by two points and the other in OT. In pulling the upset at Illinois on Sunday, the Hoosiers overcame an early 11-2 deficit. Now they're at home for the third time in their last four games and Assembly Hall has been very kind to the team this year as they're 11-1 straight up. Over the last three seasons, they have won 42 of 49 home games. Their three-point shooting (40.2% at home) figures to give Maryland all kinds of fits as that high percentage also comes on a high volume of attempts (22 per game), which is quite impressive. 10* Indiana |
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01-22-15 | Utah Jazz +7.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 101-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
8* Utah (8:05 ET): The Jazz did not play a good game last night in Cleveland, shooting only 41.4 percent from the floor in a 106-92 loss that was never really close. But that was also against a Cavs team that really seems to be coming together. Tonight, they'll face a Bucks squad that has had some trouble scoring of late (12 consecutive Unders!), having not topped 100 pts in any of their last nine contests. Milwaukee too is off a loss, 92-89 to Toronto here at home Monday, which dropped them below .500 for the season at home (8-9 SU). An impressive 27-13-1 ATS record overall is largely a byproduct of being an underdog most of the time and while the Bucks are a solid 10-4 ATS when favored this season, I think they're laying too many points in this situation. Utah, who has lost five of its last six and played two bad games in a row, is 9-1 ATS this year after allowing 105+ points their previous game. So they have that working for them. Also, it's highly unlikely that they will have to deal with the kind of offensive efficiency that they faced last night as the Cavs shot a season-best 64.9 percent on two-point attempts and all five of its starters scored at least 15 points. Milwaukee, who I mentioned has been scuffling offensively of late, is averaging just 93.2 PPG its last five contests. They also have a -6.2 rebounding margin (per game) during that same time. Simply put, the Bucks are not built to cover spreads as high as this one. So, Milwaukee has actually gone a perfect 4-0 ATS this month as a favorite of six or more points, which is why the overall record when favored this year looks so strong. But it needs to be pointed out that those four games came against the Sixers, T'wolves and Knicks (two), otherwise known as the three worst teams in the league. I'm not trying to make a case that Utah is a playoff team by any means, but they are certainly better than those aformentioned clubs, yet are getting the same small amount of respect from the linesmakers here. Even playing w/out rest, that doesn't seem right, so I'm taking the points in this one. 8* Utah |
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01-22-15 | DePaul v. Seton Hall -10.5 | Top | 64-60 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
8* Seton Hall (7:00 ET): Depaul is now 6-0 ATS in Big East play following Sunday's outright win at home over St. John's, 71-67 in overtime, a play I had w/ the Blue Demons +5.5. But for Thursday, they won't be the only team on the floor that's experienced a great deal of success at the betting window. Seton Hall has gone 12-3 ATS in all of its lined games this season, including an 8-1 mark as a favorite. That one failure as chalk, however, came their last time out as they lost here at home to Butler, 79-75 as two-point faves. Having had such ample time off and off a SU loss to boot, I expect the Pirates to roll a Depaul team whose 4-2 SU conference record has to be considered a major surprise. Lay the points. Seton Hall remained in the top 25 despite the loss to Butler, which happened nine days ago. That's quite the break between games and although guard Isaiah Whitehead remains out w/ a foot injury, I expect the team to be more than ready for this latest test. It was an overtime loss to Butler as the Pirates went cold in the second half, making only 12 of 36 field goal attempts, and also their first home loss of the season. They had previously covered each of their first six lined home games. Depaul though has struggled away from home, going just 2-6 SU (2-5 ATS) in road/neutral site games while allowing an average of 78.1 points per game. The Blue Demons have never won in six previous road trips to Seton Hall, including an 86-69 loss last season. Though I was on Depaul Sunday, I have to admit I was pretty fortunate to cash a winning ticket as they had to rally back from an 11-point second half deficit against St. John's. They shot just 35.3% from the field, but made 10 three-pointers while the Red Storm made only two. Already the Blue Demons have their most conference wins in a season since 2007-08, and again I'll reiterate that they were not expected to be a very competitive squad at the start of the year. With 49 straight losses to ranked opponents, 24 of those coming on the road, including 81-64 at Villanova earlier this month, I don't think we have to worry too much about the road dog being competitive in this one. 8* Seton Hall |
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01-21-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Washington Wizards -1.5 | Top | 105-103 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
10* Washington (8:05 ET): Generally speaking, I have not shared in the linesmakers' enthusiasm for Oklahoma City this season. I've kept a pretty mediocre rating on them even w/ Kevin Durant permanently returning to the lineup on New Year's Eve. And I think the record shows that I was right for doing so as the team failed to cover its first seven games w/ Durant back. (Note: they went 5-4 ATS w/ him from Dec 2-18). More recently, the team has won three straight - both SU and ATS - to move past .500 for the 1st time all season. The latest win came last night, in Miami, 94-86 as 7.5-point favorites. However, playing w/out rest, I still see them as overvalued as the head into the Nation's Capital tonight to face the Wizards. I'm laying the short number. Washington is off its easiest win of the season where they beat Philadelphia Monday by a score of 111-76 as 13.5-point chalk. The 76 points allowed and 35-point margin of victory were both season bests. So too was their 55.5 field goal percentage for the game. They continue to maintain the second place position in the Eastern Conference w/ a 29-13 SU record thanks in large part to a defense which ranks 3rd in the league in points allowed (96.9 PPG). In winning seven of their last nine, they've been even stingier, holding opponents to 93.6 PPG on 41.8% shooting. Offensively, they are shooting over 50% overall the L4 games, including nearly 70% from within four feet of the basket. Something else to know about this Wizards team is that not only are they 18-5 SU at home this season, but also they have taken care of business when favored, going 23-5 SU in those games. Remember that this is a very small number. As for OKC, they do have the league's fifth best straight up record (18-8) since Thanksgiving. But as alluded to before, that doesn't mean they're not being overvalued in the marketplace as well. This season has seen the Thunder go 0-5 SU/ATS in games where they are a road underdog of three points or less. Remember what I said earlier about the Wizards' defense? Well, last night was the first time all year that OKC won a game in which it scored 96 pts or less. The Thunder are just 7-14 SU overall on the road and playing w/out rest does them no favors here. 10* Washington |
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01-21-15 | Toronto Raptors v. Memphis Grizzlies -5 | Top | 86-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
8* Memphis (8:05 ET): Toronto has taken a sizable hit in the standings over the last month, and not just because Atlanta is on fire. The Raptors have lost 8 of 11 themselves to fall behind not only the Hawks, but the Wizards too, and they were somewhat fortunate to record a win Monday in Milwaukee. Even w/ six players scoring in double figures, they needed some pretty inept play down the stretch from the Bucks there. The Raptors' only other two wins this month came at home and were at the expense of Boston and Philadelphia. Tonight, they step up in class to face a Memphis team that hails from the much better conference and is looking to rebound from a home loss to Dallas on Monday. Lay the points. Prior to losing to the Mavericks Monday afternoon, the Grizzlies had won and covered four straight. This is a team that doesn't lose at home very often (16-5 SU this year) and they just beat a very good Portland team here over the weekend. Against Dallas, the excellent combination of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph went for 40 points and 30 rebounds, yet that somehow was not enough, thanks to falling behind 25-16 after the first quarter. Memphis did rally back to take the lead w/ just four minutes remaining, but unfortunately ran out of gas. Another issue was that they missed 19 of 22 three-point attempts. This is a team that shoots 37.7% from behind the arc at home this season. Adding to the Grizzlies' motivation here is the fact that this is a revenge spot. They lost up in Toronto back in November, 96-92, but that result actually doesn't look that bad when you consider they were short-handed and had another "off-night" from three-point range. Five Grizzlies sat out that first meeting due to a stomach virus, yet they still led 48-42 at the half and only faltered late with both Gasol and Mike Conley logging season-highs in minutes played. Conley himself had missed time before returning for the Dallas game where he led the team w/ 22 points. With its full compliment of players, I just believe that the Grizzlies are simply the better team here. 8* Memphis |
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01-21-15 | Memphis v. Tulsa -4 | Top | 55-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
=10* Tulsa (7:00 ET): It's pretty rarified air for Tulsa to be favored against Memphis, going back to the two rivals' stay in Conference USA. The last time it happened was nearly five years ago and Memphis won that game (here in Tulsa) outright, 93-86. Though my information "only" goes back to 2008, I have to assume that is the lone time the Golden Hurricane has been favored to beat the Tigers in over a decade. Tonight, they are the chalk though and I believe catching Memphis at an opportune time. Sure, the Tigers have won three straight since suspending and then dismissing Kuran Iverson from the program, and 8 of the last 10. But this is just their third "true" road game and as an underdog, Memphis is 0-4 ATS this season. Memphis scored 99 points Saturday in a rout of UCF at home, but scoring points on the road has been far tougher chore for HC Josh Pastner's team. Including three neutral site games, the Tigers are averaging just 59.2 PPG away from home this season. They were held to 56 by Wichita State, 47 by Baylor and 59 at SMU. They did win their last road game, but that came at Houston, who is currently 0-6 SU in conference play. As for Tulsa, they are having a very good 1st year in the American Athletic Conference. They are the league's lone unbeaten at 5-0 in conference play and have won seven games in a row overall. That includes a 66-58 win over defending National Champion UConn in their last home game. Saturday at USF, they shot exactly 50 percent from the field and four players finished in double figures. With the rivalry w/ Memphis being renewed here (weren't in the same conference last year), I expect a fever pitch in the building and the players and coaching staff will be eager to end a six-game home losing skid to the Tigers. 10* Tulsa |
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01-21-15 | North Carolina v. Wake Forest +8 | Top | 87-71 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
8* Wake Forest (7:00 ET): North Carolina has failed to cover its last four games, three of those being decided by two points or less. Sunday saw them beat Virginia Tech 68-53, but it wasn't nearly enough to cover the 22-point number in Chapel Hill. Now they take on a Wake Forest team that has been experiencing opposite results at the betting window of late. The Demon Deacons are on an impressive 7-0 ATS run, which doesn't even include a 70-63 win over Bucknell (NL) back on December 22nd. They've played both Louisville and Duke tough here at home and then last Tuesday stayed within three points of Syracuse. They had the weekend off, so the schedule works in their favor here. Take the points. UNC has not won its first three ACC road games in seven years. They also lost here in Winston-Salem (as 6.5-point favorites) last year. So w/ road wins against Clemson and NC State already under their belts, history is certainly not on the Tar Heels' side tonight. Against Virginia Tech Sunday, the team committed 17 turnovers and was somewhat lucky to escape with a double digit victory. Wake Forest has covered each of the last four times they have played a game w/ at least seven days rest. Not only does the schedule set up in their favor, but I think the Demon Deacons will be able to match up w/ UNC on the boards. The Tar Heels rank 2nd in the country in rebounds per game, so that's usually a big edge for them, but Wake Forest is not far behind at 15th. With a little less luck, North Carolina easily could have been on a three-game losing streak heading into Sunday and I just think that this is too many points to be laying on the road. 8* Wake Forest |
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01-20-15 | San Antonio Spurs v. Denver Nuggets +8 | Top | 109-99 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
10* Denver (9:05 ET): Yeah, I whiffed badly on the Nuggets last night as they got crushed by Golden State. But this isn't the Warriors they'll be facing Tuesday night and they'll be at home too when they face the defending NBA Champs. San Antonio was one of the few teams in the league that didn't play yday and comes in riding a 3-0 SU/ATS win streak. But this simply looks like too many points to lay as my power ratings indicate a line that should be closer to four points here. The Spurs are only 11-10 SU on the road this season and have lost five of their last seven away from home. The only win they had by more than five points during that time came at the expense of Minnesota. Take the points. Last night marked the biggest loss of the season for Denver. They were crushed by 43 points, getting outscored by double digits in three of the four quarters. With a result like that, it's simply best to discard, but it's true importance comes in how it has inflated the line for this game. My guess is that San Antonio would NOT be favored by this many points had Monday not gone the way it did for the Nuggets. What I can GUARANTEE you not happening here is Denver finishing the first half w/ only 28 total points, something they did yday. They'll improve on the overall 34.5% shooting as well. Denver is still 12-9 SU at home this year and averaging over 104 PPG in those games. So at the risk of repeating myself, this is a really good price. The Spurs have actually lost two of the four road games in which they've been favored by 6.5 to 9 points this year. That's outright. They're also 4-6 ATS off a double digit win (had them Sunday vs. Utah) and 2-5 ATS following 3 SU wins exact. 10* Denver |
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01-20-15 | Iowa v. Wisconsin -7.5 | Top | 50-82 | Win | 100 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
8* Wisconsin (9:00 ET): In the second leg of the Super Tuesday doubleheader on ESPN, we have Wisconsin hosting Iowa. The sixth-ranked Badgers remain the class of the Big 10 despite losing to Rutgers last week as 15-point favorites. They responded by winning by that exact margin last Thursday against Nebraska, where I took them and the game fell right on the number. They had Saturday off and are now being asked to lay a much smaller number tonight in Madison. Iowa has beaten North Carolina, Ohio State and Minnesota all on the road so far, but after beating the Buckeyes for a second time this year (on Saturday) I see them being "up against it" here. Lay the points. Wisconsin's best player, Frank Kaminsky, sat out the loss to Rutgers, but returned against Nebraska and led the way w/ 22 points. Yes, the team is now w/out its starting point guard Traevon Jackson, but Bronson Koenig seemed to fill-in well vs. the Cornhuskers as he finished w/ 11 points. There are two key stats that you have to like if you're a Badgers fan (as I am here), those being in the turnover and free throw departments. No team turns it over fewer times than this one (8.3 per game) and opponents are getting to the charity stripe only 12.4 times per game, also the fewest in the country. Iowa is playing for the second time in four days and third time in the last seven. With this being their toughest matchup of the three, it's obviously not a good scheduling spot. Especially since the Hawkeyes have lost the last three meetings w/ the Badgers, though those games have been decided by a total of 13 points. Still though, like last night w/ Kansas, this is a pretty cheap price with a team that's typically dominant at home. Wisconsin is 38-7 in Madison the L3 years and 60-14 SU as a favorite. 8* Wisconsin |
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01-20-15 | LSU v. Florida -10 | Top | 79-61 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
10* Florida (7:00 ET): The Gators are nowhere near as average as their record shows. I've made this case before in previous plays on them and feel no differently today. Yes, this seems like a bad time to "double down" on Billy Donovan's team, after they just lost at Georgia 73-61 Saturday to fall to 10-7 on the season. But I point out that was actually their largest margin of defeat all season and that five of their previous six losses were by six points or less, four of those coming by four points or less and three by two pts or less. LSU might have a superior record here at 13-4 SU, but other than West Virginia has beaten no one of substance. Lay the points in this one. Might I remind you that Florida had won 24 straight games in the SEC before Saturday's loss. That includes 20+ point blowouts of Mississippi State and Auburn here in Gainesville in the L10 days. Saturday saw them allow a ridiculous 56.1% shooting, negating their own strong shooting performance. Falling behind on the road 12-0 obviously didn't help. Maybe it was a case of short rest as the Gators had just played Thursday night (Georgia last played Weds)? Whatever the reasoning was, I know that Florida is still 7-2 SU at home this year and limiting opponents to just 51.8 points per game here. They are also on a 5-1 ATS run as home favorites of 9.5 to 12 pts the L3 seasons. Over the previous two seasons, Florida has dominated LSU all three times they have played. Each win has come by at least 18 points and that's w/ only one them being played here in Gainesville. LSU arrives here off their own outright loss, a 67-64 defeat suffered at the hands of Texas A&M in Baton Rouge Saturday, a game that they were favored to win by five points. All four of the Tigers' SEC games thus far have been close, but after watching them blow a halftime lead to the Aggies and shoot just 39.1 percent for the game, it's tough to make a case for them here. Something to keep in mind is that Texas A&M had not won a "true" road game all season before Saturday. 10* Florida |
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01-19-15 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Phoenix Suns -10.5 | Top | 100-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (10:35 ET): Both teams had the weekend off. In the case of the Lakers, they probably needed it seeing as they have now dropped four in a row and six of their last seven. Even though this is a national TV game, Kobe Bryant is unlikely to play, which as we've seen in the past isn't necessarily a bad thing. But here, I think it will be as I don't see LA having the horses to keep pace w/ a Phoenix squad that's averaging 107 points per game for the season. Not only will the Lakers struggle to score, but they will struggle to stop the Suns as well, considering LA allows the 2nd most PPG in the league at 106.5. Bad matchup here for the road team. Phoenix has covered only one of its last five games. That was last Tuesday at home vs. Cleveland. They have only played one time since, Friday at home vs. Minnesota, winning 110-99. The spread was larger there, so they didn't cover, but it should be pointed out that they virtually led the whole way and 11 different players scored. They shot 55.2% for the game and have won 12 of 16. With Oklahoma City now at .500 and on their heels, this is the kind of game the Suns must win and win big. The next three games, while all at home, are against Portland, Houston and the Clippers. Fortunately, Phoenix is already 3-0 SU vs. the Lakers this season, including a 20-point win at home very early in the year. This line is actually SMALLER than that one, which screams value to me. The Suns have averaged over 115 PPG against the Lakers in the three wins. Consider that in two of their last three games, the Lakers have scored 85 points or less. They just lost at Utah Friday night and have lost seven in a row here in Phoenix by an average of 16.4 PPG. The Suns are averaging 111.4 PPG their last 16 games, only Golden State is averaging more during that same time. 10* Phoenix |
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01-19-15 | Oklahoma v. Kansas -5.5 | Top | 78-85 | Win | 100 | 22 h 52 m | Show |
10* Kansas (9:00 ET): The Jayhawks are off a tough 86-81 loss at Iowa State Saturday night, so they should be more than eager to take the court at historic Allen Fieldhouse tonight. Prior to losing to the Cyclones, KU had won and covered five straight. That includes four double digit wins at home. As previously noted, the Big 12 is absolutely loaded this year w/ 7 of 10 teams currently ranked. Home court is going to be key as the last time Oklahoma took their act on the road, they were blown out 86-65 at West Virginia. Kansas has not lost at home this year and has beaten the Sooners 13 straight times here in Lawrence. Lay the points. Oklahoma had actually dropped B2B games before beating rival Oklahoma State 82-65 on Saturday. One was the one at WVU, and they also lost ourtight as 12-point chalk at home to Kansas State the previous Saturday. I realize that three of the Sooners losses this year have been by three points or less. But this is some really great value on Kansas at home, who has been favored in the -3.5 to -6 point range only one other time previously in the last three seasons. Oklahoma has not won here in Lawrence since 1993. Their last five visits have resulted in defeats by an average of 17 PPG. Coming off a rare loss, this one just might "mean a little more" to the Jayhawks, who have road games on deck at Texas and TCU. I don't see them struggling on defense like they did in Ames Saturday night. Off their last 57 conference losses, Kansas is 45-12 SU including 6-3 ATS the L3 years. 10* Kansas |
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01-19-15 | Pittsburgh v. Duke -15 | Top | 65-79 | Loss | -106 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
8* Duke (7:00 ET): Once again, the demise of Coach K's Blue Devils seems to have been greatly exaggerated. After suffering B2B losses to NC State and Miami (only two losses this year), the team bounced back w/ a big 63-52 win at Louisville as 3-point dogs. They did it w/ a zone defense that completely shut down L'ville's offense to the tune of 29.5 percent shooting for the game. Not only was it the first double digit loss for Rick Pitino in the L3 years, but it was the program's second worst loss at the KFC Yum! Center, which opened in 2010. So, yes, this team is still really good. That should be reinforced tonight w/ this home game vs. Pitt. Last week's loss to Miami (FL) snapped a 41-game home win streak for the Blue Devils. They're outscoring visitors by 27.1 points per game in Durham this year and a Pitt squad that's averaging just 63.2 PPG in ACC play is going to have a difficult time "keeping up." Duke is 9th in the country in points per game at 82.0 PPG (90.2 here at home) and they've done so on the nation's 4th best shooting percentage (50.2%). The 63 pts they scored in Saturday's win at L'ville were actually their fewest in a game all year. Another issue for Pittsburgh here is that they are allowing opponents to shoot 40% from three-point range in conference play. Duke had been shooting 39 percent from behind the arc prior to the L3 games. Pitt comes off B2B home wins, beating Florida State and Georgia Tech. But those two teams are a combined 1-9 in ACC play right now, so I wouldn't put too much stock into what's happened over the last week. For the Panthers, it was switching OUT of a zone (into man to man) w/ six minutes to go against Ga Tech that proved to be the difference as the Yellow Jackets went scoreless for a five minute stretch. Still though, they won by only five. This is just a big step up from Pitt's previous ACC foes and this is not the same caliber of team we're used to seeing under Jamie Dixon. They have a number of close wins over weak opponents. The lone ranked team they've played to this point was San Diego State and they lost to the Aztecs by 17 on a neutral floor back in November. 8* Duke |
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01-19-15 | Denver Nuggets +14 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 79-122 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
8* Denver (4:05 ET): Golden State continues to win in remarkable fashion as Saturday's 131-106 beatdown of Houston not only improved them to 32-6 SU for the year, but made it 10 straight wins by double digits. Those 10 wins have not come consecutively mind you, but nine of them have come over the L10 games (lost to OKC Friday night). The Warriors continue to pace the league w/ a +10.9 per game point differential, so when they're playing a team like the Denver Nuggets at home, you know the spread is going to be high. The Nuggets, who have lost two straight, including at home to Minnesota Saturday, had previously gone 5-1-1 ATS over a seven-game stretch and aren't blown out too often. I'll take the points. Going all the way back to December 10th, Denver has only lost two times by 10 or more points. This will be the most points they've gotten in a game all year. Interestingly, the Nuggets are one of four teams that Golden State hasn't beaten at home since the start of last season. The road team won all four times these teams played in 2013-14 and this is the first matchup of 2014-15. Again, Denver had won five straight before losing the back end of a home & home to Dallas Friday. Then they followed that up w/ the outright loss to Minnesota, a game where they got off to a slow start, but still led at the half. Golden State's pace eventually HAS to come down, no? I can't see a team continuing to outscore its opponents by a double digit margin over the course of an entire season. For the sake of comparison, the league's top scoring differential last year on a per game basis belonged to San Antonio at +7.7 per game. So the wins eventually are going to come by tighter margins and we have a lot of room to work with here as this is a very generous number. With that large scoring differential, the Warriors have obviously been defying the oddsmakers as well at 69.4% ATS for the season. That figure should start to come down as well. Add it up, and I'll take the points. 8* Denver |
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01-18-15 | Utah Jazz v. San Antonio Spurs -11 | Top | 69-89 | Win | 100 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
10* San Antonio (7:05 ET): The last two times that Utah has posted B2B victories, they needed matchups w/ Orlando and Philadelphia to do so. Therefore, off a 94-85 home win over the Lakers Friday night and playing in San Antonio here, it's difficult to drum up any support for the underdog Jazz. Yes, they're catching a big number, but the Spurs have Kawhi Leonard back and just took care of a very good Portland team 110-96 Friday night. That was the defending NBA Champs' fourth win in the last five games and sixth in the last eight. With revenge from an embarrassing loss last month in Salt Lake City (as nine-point favorites), you can look for San Antonio to take care of business in this spot. Here in San Antonio, Utah has not had much luck through the years. They're 6-35 SU and 12-26-3 ATS going all the way back to 1996. Including one playoff series, the Jazz have lost nine straight here at the AT&T Center and in doing so have allowed an average of over 110 points per game. They have been much better defensively of late, but I still don't know how much I trust them. Especially because they'll be going up against the Spurs' full starting lineup, one that had played all of eight minutes together this season before Friday. Leonard returned to score 20 pts vs. Portland and the team assisted on 37 of 42 made shots. So, don't be surprised to see San Antonio start to play a lot better in the coming days/weeks. Last month in Utah was just "one of those games" as far as I'm concerned and I'm not about to proclaim any kind of matchup advantages for the Jazz here. They'd lost three straight before beating the Lakers Friday, two of them by double digits. San Antonio is averaging 106.9 PPG at home this season and w/ its full compliment of players is going to be very difficult to stop moving forward. The Jazz have lost all three times this season after allowing 85 pts or less the previous game. 10* San Antonio |
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01-18-15 | Boise State v. New Mexico -5 | Top | 69-59 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
10* New Mexico (6:00 ET): Boise State just snapped a four-game losing streak Tuesday w/ an 82-73 overtime win at home against UNLV, but face a far greater challenge this evening as they go on the road to face a New Mexico team that has gone 36-4 SU in the famed "Pit" in Albuquerque. The Lobos have gone 6-1 SU/ATS the last seven meetings w/ the Broncos and that lone SU loss came by a single point LY in Boise. The only non-cover came LY in the Moutain West Tournament when UNM was favored by six and won by only three. Here at home, they beat the Broncos by nine last season. Having already dispatched of Colorado State on this floor, I expect the Lobos to continue their home excellence in this spot. The 82 pts scored by Boise State on Tuesday was a huge departure from what we'd seen from them in the previous four games where they'd averaged just under 57 PPG. Playing OT obviously inflated that number as they finished w/ 68 pts at the end of regulation vs. the Rebels. New Mexico's defense is tough to crack, as they've allowed 64 pts or less in five straight games and opponents are shooting just 27.5% from three-point range against them for the year. Boise State has shot below 40% overall in each of the last four meetings w/ the Lobos. Something else to keep in mind is that Boise State's record could be even worse if not for a 3-0 SU record in games that went to overtime. One of their guards, Igor Hadziomerovic may not play again here (questionable) due to a concussion. I can't stress enough what a hostile venue this is as visitors are averaging just 54.8 PPG here in Albuquerque. New Mexico is a strong 29-14 ATS its last 43 conference games and figures to get better rebounding here than they did Wednesday vs. Air Force when they got only four boards from its top four frontcourt players, yet ended up w/ an overall 33-22 edge on the glass. 10* New Mexico |
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01-18-15 | St. John's v. DePaul +5.5 | Top | 67-71 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
8* Depaul (2:30 ET): The Blue Demons may have somewhat tricked people into thinking they're a NCAA Tournament-worthy team w/ a 3-0 start to Big East play. They'd previously dropped six in a row, and now have lost their last two, to Villanova & Georgetown. But I can see them rebounding this afternoon at home against St. John's. The Johnnie's have their own set of problems and while coming off their first league win, 83-70 at Providence, aren't really a great candidate to be laying points on the road. Depaul, meanwhile, is 7-3 SU at home and has covered five in a row. Take the points. The Blue Demons played a back and forth game w/ G'town on Tuesday that featured 12 lead changes and 12 ties. That was their third home loss of the year. Really, the only "bad" game they've played in the Big East portion of the schedule came against 'Nova & that was to be expected, plus St. John's lost to that same Wildcats team by 18 pts at home anyway. Today's line means the Blue Demons have now been an underdog for all six Big East games and as you can see they've done quite well w/ the points thus far. While not a tournament team, this version of Depaul basketball has certainly been better than past editions. St. John's is playing only its fourth "true" road game here. It's tough to imagine things going any better than they did vs. Providence on Wednesday as they shot 59% from three-point range and got significant contributions off the bench. Yes, this was a team once ranked in the Top 15, but the Red Storm is very inconsistent. After a strong start to the season defensively, they've now allowed 70 or more points in every conference game, including 90 to Villanova. St. John's being in this price range definitely would scare me a bit, if I was backing this team. But I'm not! 8* Depaul |
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01-17-15 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Denver Nuggets -11.5 | Top | 113-105 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
8* Denver (9:05 ET): We've seen in the past how playing the second of B2B road games in Denver is a major disadvantage and it's not like Minnesota has much going for it anyway. The Western Conference worst T'wolves lost again Friday night, this time 110-99 at Phoenix, a game where I was able to cash the Under. Denver also lost last night, 97-89 in Dallas, in what was a revenge spot for the Mavs. When those teams played just two days prior, it was here at the Pepsi Center w/ Dallas unrested and the end result was a 114-107 win for the Nuggets. I anticipate a far larger margin of victory tonight against a much weaker opponent. In the analysis for yday's game I spoke of how poorly Minnesota has performed in the past as a sizable road underdog. Last night made it 16 straight times they've lost at +12.5 or higher when playing away from home and that streak doesn't figure to come to an end tonight in Denver where the home team has won three straight. I don't have much affinity for HC Brian Shaw, but this is a game his team should win easily. I just cannot see Minnesota stopping Denver from scoring here. Before last night's loss, the Nuggets had been averaging 109.8 PPG during a five-game win streak. The T'wolves are the league's worst defensive team, allowing 108.2 PPG and on the road things get even more scary as they allow 112 per game. These division rivals just met 12 days ago in Minnesota and the Nuggets scored 110 pts, winning by a nine-point margin. That should increase tonight here at home. 8* Denver |
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01-17-15 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Detroit Pistons -13 | Top | 89-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
10* Detroit (7:35 ET): The Pistons' remarkable turnaround since dumping Josh Smith has been discussed in great detail elsewhere. The bottom line is that they've now won 10 of their last 12 w/ one of the losses coming against an Atlanta team that's even more red hot than Detroit is right now. The Pistons picked up another win last night, this one in Indiana, 98-96 where the line fluctuated around a pick em. Crazy as it may seem, a team that's still 10 games below .500 absolutely deserves to be favored by double digits here as they draw a historically bad Philadelphia team coming off a rare SU win. Lay the points. The 76ers pulled off a major surprise last night, upsetting the Pelicans 96-81 as seven-point dogs. However, before we go patting them on the back too much, it should be pointed out that New Orleans played w/out its two best players, Anthony Davis & Jrue Holliday. Arguably, it was Philadelphia's finest game all season. It was the first time they didn't trail at any juncture and at one point they led by as many 19, their largest advantage in any game this year. Don't look now, but the team is actually a respectable 5-3 SU/ATS its last eight games. But they're still averaging only 85.7 PPG on the road where they are a poor 2-8 ATS as dogs of 12.5 or more points. You may recall that the Pistons started out this season by failing to cover their first eight times as favorites. After blowing out both Orlando and Sacramento, they failed as chalk vs. Brooklyn (still won SU) and then against New Orleans (lost outright) earlier this week. But you won't find a weaker team than the Sixers, although this is a revenge spot for the Pistons as they lost to Philly as 9.5-point chalk earlier in the year at home. That should just add to the motivation here as Detroit knows it can still get back into the Eastern Conference playoff picture. I look for them to roll tonight. 10* Detroit. |
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01-17-15 | Central Michigan v. Akron -4.5 | Top | 76-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
10* Akron (7:00 ET): This is a big matchup in the MAC as two of the league's better teams face off at the JAR in Akron. The host Zips responded from their first conference loss w/ a 67-50 beatdown of Bowling Green on Wednesday, which was their third straight win here at home by a double digit margin. Central Michigan, who is off an impressive looking 105-77 win over Miami (OH), has split its first two conference road games. First, they went to Toledo and won 65-62 as seven-point dogs. That's impressive, especially considering Akron lost there 84-67 three days later. But an 83-65 loss at Ball State last Saturday is cause for concern if you're a Chippewas fan and I'll lay the small number in this one as Akron looks to stay dominant at home. Keith Dambrot's Zips led by as many as 24 on Wednesday, holding Bowling Green to a paltry 32.8% shooting for the game, which included 4 of 20 on three-point attempts. Akron has made it quite hard on visitors this season, allowing them to score just 57.4 points per game on 39.1% shooting. That's a major reason why they've lost only one time here at the JAR all season. Long-term, they've won 37 of their last 41 home games and they're also a perfect 4-0 ATS as favorites of 3.5 to 6 points. Meanwhile, it would be difficult for Central Michigan to top what they did Wednesday, routing Miami (OH) by 28 points thanks in large part to a 64-point explosion in the first half that saw them shoot 69% from the floor. The Chips have won seven of eight, including outright wins on the road over Northwestern and Toledo, but the rest of the schedule has been fairly weak to this point. Their scoring dips dramatically on the road and it should be pointed out that this is a team that has lost 28 of its past 33 "true" road games, at least those that had a line attached to them. A program that came into the year having lost 29 of 36 league games the previous two seasons has been a major surprise so far, but I don't see this one going their way. 10* Akron |
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01-17-15 | Gonzaga v. Loyola Marymount +19.5 | Top | 72-55 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
8* Loyola Marymount (4:00 ET): Here we go again, against Gonzaga. The 'Zags had, by far, their closest call in WCC play on Thursday, slipping by Pepperdine by only two points on the road. As I've said all along, by virtue of being such a prohibitive favorite to win the conference, the #3 ranked Bulldogs are going to be drastically overvalued in the majority of their games. Of their first seven league games, this will be the fifth on the road. They won the two at home in blowout fashion, though they still failed to cover vs. Santa Clara last Saturday (part of my 3-0 sweep!). In the first three on the road, they won by 12 pts or less each time. Today, they are caught laying a monster number against Loyola Marymount, who just snapped a 5-game losing streak w/ an 80-68 upset of Portland as four-point home dogs. Take the points one more time. LMU isn't having a great, or even good season, but they do own wins over Depaul and now Portland in games where they were the underdog. The Lions have covered three in a row overall, staying within the number at both San Diego and BYU, then turning in probably their best performance of the year vs. Portland on Thursday. They shot 51% from the field (8 for 12 on three-pointers) against the Pilots, a far cry from the team's overall 63.8 PPG scoring average. Things will not be easy here, but it is worth noting this is the most points that the Lions have gotten in a home game in many seasons. They lost by only 10 here last year to Gonzaga. Even after shooting nearly 70 percent from the floor in the first half Thursday, the Zags were unable to shake a pesky Pepperdine team. Missing 19 of 33 free throw attempts certainly didn't help and that's something to keep an eye on moving forward as the team is barely over 70 percent for the year. This is the most points Gonzaga has been asked to lay on the road in over three seasons. Another thing to keep an eye on is the status of LMU's Evan Payne. The guard, who is the WCC's third leading scorer, sat out last Saturday's game at BYU (team still covered) and scored only seven points off the bench Thursday in 23 minutes. Averaging 19.3 PPG, Payne's presence could give the Lions a shot at pulling the upset. 8* Loyola Marymount |
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01-17-15 | Baylor v. Kansas State -1 | Top | 61-63 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
10* Kansas State (3:00 ET): While the rankings called it an "upset," Baylor actually failed to cover in its SU win over #11 Iowa State earlier this week. They were 2-point favorites in Waco, and won 74-73, the second time in three games things were decided by a single point. Mixed in between this Wednesday's big win and last Wednesday's 56-55 loss to Kansas was an overtime game against TCU last Saturday, which they won 66-59 as two-point dogs. Playing to all those close finishes can take a lot of out a team and this afternoon sees the Bears going to Manhattan to face a Kansas State team that's won its last three games, also all in comfortable fashion. I think that the home court, as it often is, will be the deciding factor in this one. From a motivational standpoint, the edges here likely lay w/ the host team. Kansas State not only has double revenge from last year, but is also one of only three teams in the Big 12 (remember, just 10 teams now) not to be currently ranked. This despite a 3-1 start to conference play, which is better than everybody else besides Kansas. They've already beaten one of the ranked Big 12 teams, that being Oklahoma last Saturday, and they did so in Norman as 12-point underdogs (in OT). For the sake of comparison, Baylor lost at Oklahoma in its conference opener, by 10 points. The Wildcats followed up their upset of OU by beating Texas Tech Wednesday, 58-51, which made it 10 straight games holding the opposition below 65 points. Yes, they already have seven losses, but Bruce Weber's team could potentially have a much better record. Four of those losses came by four points or less. They come into this game on a four-game winning streak (in the regular season) against ranked conference foes. At home, not only is Kansas State 7-1 SU this year, but they have won 38 of 42 in the Octagon of Doom. The double revenge factor is big as well considering Baylor has not beaten the Wildcats three straight times since 2000-2002. Both of last year's matchups could have gone either way as Baylor won here by two and the game in Waco went to double overtime. The linesmakers again are calling for a toss-up, but as mentioned above I think the home court advantage is enough to carry the Wildcats. 10* Kansas State |
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01-16-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers +8 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 126-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (10:35 ET): The Cavs have not performed well as an underdog this season, but the vast majority of those games have come w/out LeBron James in the lineup. James is now back and the team finally got back in the win column last night w/ a 109-102 win over the Lakers. While that win was a little more hard-fought then you would have liked to see, and this is the second game of back to backs on the road, remember no travel is involved. So the schedule isn't that big of a deal, in my opinion, plus you have to think Cleveland is going to start making some of their losses back after a brutal 1-9 SU/ATS stretch. Take the points here. LeBron led the way w/ 36 points last night in a game the Cavs actually trailed at halftime. I had the Over, which looked great early (30-30 tie after 1Q & 61-57 at halftime), but needed a strong finish after a low-scoring third quarter. Kevin Love is questionable for this game after reaggrevating his back, but might the Cavs be better off WITHOUT him, anyway? He certainly wasn't much help when James was out. If he does play though, I don't think it's a negative. Cleveland has a lot of work to do right now to get back into the race in the Eastern Conference and I simply cannot see them getting blown out here. The Clippers have been a losing proposition at the betting window all year (17-22 ATS) including here at home where they are 10-13 vs. the number. Coming off a big win on the road against Portland and with a road game tomorrow night, might this be a bit of a letdown/lookahead for them? They did lose at home to Miami on Sunday. I look for this one to go down to the wire. 8* Cleveland |
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01-16-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Toronto Raptors -1 | Top | 110-89 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
10* Toronto (7:35 ET): After leading the Eastern Conference for much of the year, the Raptors have recently ceded that honor to Atlanta, who is now on top at 31-8 SU thanks to a 10-game winning streak. Toronto has actually fallen into third place (4.5 games back of first) and because of that seems a little bit undervalued for tonight's big home game w/ the Hawks. You have to remember that the Raptors have already beaten the Hawks twice this season and these teams are a lot more even then what the linesmakers are saying with this number. The last time Toronto hosted Atlanta, they were 4.5-point favorites. So we're getting some good value as the respective recent results for both squads are due to even out. Give Atlanta their due. They have not only won 10 straight, but have covered the spread in their last eight. Overall, they are 13-1-1 ATS the L15 games, a monster run that has at them at the top of the NBA ATS standings at 71.1 percent (27-11-1). They have won at both Portland and LA (against the Clippers) during this streak. But this will also now be their third road game in four nights. After playing Boston and Philadelphia, it's a significant step up in class. Remember how hot Toronto was at the start of the season? Well, in similar fashion, I now expect the Hawks to start "giving some back." The Raptors have failed to cover six of their last seven games. But they were also 18-point favorites when they beat Philadelphia 100-84 Wednesday night. This is their fifth consecutive home game, so the schedule sets up much more nicely for them. At home, Toronto is 16-5 SU, holding teams to an average of 96.1 points per game. They are also averaging an Eastern Conference best 107.6 PPG themselves. But perhaps the most important factor of all is something I have yet to even touch on & that is the return of DeMar DeRozan to the lineup. He'd missed 21 straight games before playing against Philadelphia. The team is now 14-3 SU this season when he plays. 10* Toronto |
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01-16-15 | Marist +7 v. Fairfield | Top | 54-60 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
8* Marist (7:00 ET): It's been a tough season so far for Marist, whose ONLY win of the season came by four points (Fresno State) the day before Thanksgiving. The Red Foxes have dropped all six of their conference (MAAC) games by an average of 13 points per game, so of course they'll be a decided underdog tonight as they visit Fairfield, who themselves are having a rough go of it. The only question for Marist would be "is it enough points?" and considering Fairfield has just one win in its last seven games overall, I would lean towards "yes." Take the points. The Stags (Fairfield) won their first two MAAC games back in December, but since then have been on a downhill slide. Their last two losses have both been by 16 points, the most recent being at Iona on Tuesday, even though at one point they led that game by as many as nine. But when you're opponent ends up shooting 56.5% for the game, chances are you're going to come out on the losing end and that's what happened there. Sandwiched in between the 16-pt loss to Iona and another here at home to Rider was an outright win over Siena as 7-pt dogs. But that was on the road, and shockingly the Stags have actually performed worse at home this year. Their just 2-6 SU on their own floor and as favorites are only 1-2 SU/ATS. In other words, it's not going to happen very often that you get this many points going against Fairfield. Marist, predictably, has been an underdog in every game. Overall, they haven't performed well at the betting window this season, but lately things have been trending in an upward direction a bit w/ covers in three of their past five games. Sunday vs. Quinnipiac saw them finish off a backdoor job after falling down big early, so at least we know the Red Foxes aren't likely to just roll over. Also, one advantage they do have here is two extra days to prepare. Khallid Hart, the team's second leading scorer (17.0 PPG), returned to the lineup vs. Quinnipiac after missing the previous 13 games. He missed all five shots he took, but I anticipate a better performance from him tonight now that he's back in the lineup. 8* Marist |
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01-15-15 | Gonzaga v. Pepperdine +12 | Top | 78-76 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
8* Pepperdine (10:30 ET): My belief is that Gonzaga is going to be tremendously overvalued throughout the WCC campaign and so I've been going against them pretty regularly since the start of conference play. It paid off last week when they hosted Santa Clara, as they just missed out on the cover, laying 25 points in a 79-57. The Zags arent laying nearly as many tonight, but they're on the road and w/ Pepperdine coming off B2B outright wins on the road over BYU and San Diego (impressive!), the hosts will not be intimidated. Take the points. Somehow, Pepperdine has lost 26 straight times to Gonzaga. That's pretty incredible. They lost by 15 and 17 points in LY's two matchups. Overall, they're just 9-25 ATS vs. Gonzaga since '97. But, overall, this has been a very good team to bet on in the underdog role the last three seasons. They've gone 43-24 ATS in all of their games during that time and that includes an 11-3 record this season. As an underdog, they're a very profitable 28-14 ATS including 5-1 this season. As mentioned previously, they just pulled upsets at BYU and San Diego, beating the linesmakers' projections there by more than 35 points! This is Gonzaga's best start in conference play since the 2001-02 season, so in addition to being due to drop a game to Pepperdine, they're probably due to drop a game period. Now, keep in mind that I'm not calling for the outright upset by an means. But getting double digits with a team that has held its last six opponents to an average of 59 points per game on 39 percent shooting seems like a pretty safe bet to me. 8* Pepperdine |
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01-15-15 | Nebraska v. Wisconsin -15 | Top | 55-70 | Push | 0 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
10* Wisconsin (9:00 ET): The seventh-ranked Badgers come into this game off just their second loss of the season, and figure to be in an angry mood. The loss came Sunday, as 15-point favorites, at Rutgers by a score of 67-62. Incredibly, they blew a 12-point halftime lead. The usually sound defense we're used to seeing under Bo Ryan just wasn't there as the Scarlet Knights shot a preposterous 67 percent in the second half and 54.3% for the game. Keep in mind that Rutgers came into that game as the worst shooting team in the entire Big Ten! So, back in Madison, I expect the Badgers (54.9 PPG allowed) to put the clamps down. Nebraska is a team in the wrong place at the wrong time. Lay the points. Wisconsin has lost a home game this season, but that was against Duke. They followed it up w/ eight straight wins, seven of them coming by double digits. They did fail to cover in their first two Big 10 home games, but the number is slightly lower here than it was vs. Penn State and Purdue. A big difference between tonight and the game vs. Rutgers is that leading scorer Frank Kaminsky will be in the lineup. Averaging 16.9 PPG and 8.2 RPG, Kaminsky missed the Rutgers game w/ a concussion. Unfortunately, the team has now lost PG Traevon Jackson for the season, but his absence won't mean as much as Kaminsky's did. Nebraska is just 2-8 ATS vs. teams w/ a winning record this year and has dropped three of its four "true" road games to this point. In their last one, a 70-59 loss at Iowa, they scored only two points over the game's final three minutes. Coming in averaging only 65.9 PPG for the season will be a problem for the Cornhuskers facing the usually defensively sound Badgers. In their last visit to Madison, which came all the way back in 2013, Nebraska was held to just 46 points and lost by 31. The Badgers will look to deal a similar beatdown here. 10* Wisconsin. |
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01-15-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Houston Rockets -1.5 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
8* Houston (8:05 ET): I know they played a good chunk of games w/ out Kevin Durant (Russell Westbrook missed some time as well), but that still really doesn't excuse Oklahoma City from not having yet climbed over .500 at any point this season. Currently, they're one game below and that's after beating lowly Utah last Friday. They've been off ever since, which I realize plays a significant role in this line being where it's currently at, and added to that is the fact the Rockets just played last night (and lost to Orlando). But it's an overadjustment by the linesmakers in my opinion, so I'm gonna lay the very short number here. The Thunder come into tonight having failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games. I feel they've been overvalued ever since Durant's return to the lineup and also telling is the fact they are also 0-5 against the spread this year as a road underdog of three points or less. In all road games, they're just 5-13 ATS and they've won only four times all year as an underdog. Their last two road games were both disasters as they got blown out by Golden State and Sacramento, losing by a combined 47 points. Consider that they have now been held under 100 pts in three straight games, the second time that's happened this season. The team didn't experience such a stretch at any point in the L3 seasons. Houston had been rolling prior to last night's outright loss in Orlando where all the improvement we've seen on the defensive end this year was persona non grata. The Magic, who are pretty inept offensively, finished w/ 120 points. That's a huge departure from the 92.4 points per game the Rockets are allowing at home this season. I'll reference their 69-65 win over the Thunder earlier this year, even though neither Durant nor Westbrook played for OKC that day. But even w/ a massive scheduling disadvantage, the Rockets are clearly the better team here in my book and you know James Harden is going to want to play well against his former team. Had Houston won last night, I'd be less inclined to back them here, even though the line screams value. But they lost, so that should keep them motivated. 8* Houston |
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01-14-15 | Miami Heat +15 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 89-104 | Push | 0 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
8* Miami (10:35 ET): Both teams played last night and won. The Heat, still four games below .500 for the season, beat the sorry Lakers 78-75. But that final score, ugly as it may look, is a tad bit misleading as they jumped out to an early 18-0 lead. That's not a misprint, I assure you. (By the way, allow me to take a moment to reiterate what a terrible player Kobe Bryant is right now). Also remember that the Heat just beat the Clippers, also in LA, Sunday afternoon. As for Golden State, it was business as usual last night as they won in Utah 116-105 for their SEVENTH consecutive double digit victory. It was actually a close game at home (full disclosure: I was on the Jazz), but in the end the Warriors improved to 22-7 ATS as favorites and are a league best 70.6% ATS overall. Eventually, they've got to "come back down to Earth." Maybe not all the way, but slightly. Take the points here. Golden State has yet to drop a game to an Eastern Conference opponent. Admittedly, that's unlikely to change here. But at what point do they at least come down a little bit? As mentioned earlier, they were neck and neck w/ Utah in the first half last night before a 44-point explosion in the third quarter. Led by Steph Curry's 27 points, six Warriors scored in double figures, and all but one player had at least eight. When these teams met earlier in the year, in Miami, Golden State shot a blistering 57.3% overall while the Heat were at only 38.8%. I would expect those percentages to move closer to one another tonight. Miami is likely w/out Dwyane Wade tonight, but that's okay as don't forget the Warriors lost to the Lakers not that long ago when Kobe Bryant was out of the lineup. If anything, defense has been the Heat's calling card this season as they rank 5th in the league, allowing just 97.4 points per game. This will be the most points the Heat have gotten against any opponent in the last five years. Eventually, Golden State HAS to have an off-night, right? 8* Miami |
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01-14-15 | Washington Wizards v. Chicago Bulls -5.5 | Top | 105-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
8* Chicago (8:05 ET): I don't necessarily have the Bulls rated as significantly better than the Wizards, but they do have a big edge here in that they are catching Washington off a big win over San Antonio last night. Furthermore, it's a revenge spot for the home team, who lost in D.C. last week 102-96 as one-point dogs. With three losses in the last four games, two of them coming when they were double digit favorites, I expect this to be targeted as a "must win" by HC Tom Thibodeau. Also, I feel the Bulls almost have to improve upon their 12-8 SU home record (7-13 ATS). They've failed to cover six straight times at home vs. the Wizards, a streak which can't go on forever. This is a really tough spot for the road team w/ no rest. Washington improved to 17-4 SU at home w/ last night's 101-93 win over San Antonio. That victory also snapped a 17-game losing streak to the Spurs. So a letdown could be seen as almost inevitable tonight at the United Center. The Wizards' splits as a favorite vs. underdog are pretty dramatic. While they are 22-4 straight up in games in which they are favored, they are just 4-8 SU as a dog. That includes a 31-point loss at Atlanta Sunday. I mentioned their strong home record, well, on the road they're a rather pedestrian 9-8 straight up. That includes a 1-5 SU and ATS mark as a dog of 3.5 to 6 points. When Washington beat the Bulls 102-86 last Friday, it marked the first time in eight head to head meetings that John Wall was victorious against Derrick Rose. Remember that Rose was injured for last year's playoff series, which contributes to the Wizards' strong record here in the Windy City. Chicago comes off a disastrous defensive performance Monday vs. Orlando, something I expect to be rectified here. The subpar defensive numbers for the Bulls have been a surprise, but keep in mind they are also now averaging 104.9 PPG here at home this season. That's a significant increase over previous seasons. With revenge and a significant scheduling edge, I see the home team taking care of business here. 8* Chicago |
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01-14-15 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Brooklyn Nets +6.5 | Top | 103-92 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): For a second straight game, the Nets are catching a significant number at home against a Western Conference opponent. Things didn't go so well their last time out as they fell to Houston, 113-99, which extended their losing streak to six games. They are also 1-6 ATS their last seven games. Offense has been an issue this season, but defense really hasn't, save for that last game vs. the Rockets which was the only game in the losing streak they allowed 100+ points. Tonight, they welcome in a Memphis team that's off a somewhat misleading 122-110 victory over Phoenix Sunday night as that game went to double OT. (Fortunately, I cashed the Grizz as favorites). But take the points here as the Nets should be able to take advantage of a generous number. Memphis had lost three of four prior to beating Phoenix. All three losses came on the road and were by double digits. In fact, the three straight losses have come by an average of 16.6 points per game. We'd be foolish to expect a final margin close to that number tonight, but Brooklyn can certainly still keep it close. While they've won all three games this year where they were a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points, the Grizzlies have covered just one of the three and that obviously doesn't include a non-cover at Philadelphia back on December 13th where they were favored by 10. Bottom line is that this is a lot of points to lay. Over the last six games, Brooklyn has averaged about 6.5 PPG less than their overall season average. A minor sign of encouragement was seeing them score 99 pts in the loss to Houston. Kevin Garnett's suspension is a non-factor as far as I'm concerned as he's well past his prime anyway. Memphis may struggle integrating the recently acquired Jeff Green into its lineup. The Grizzlies have won just 5 times in the last 12 games and I have them currently rated lower than Houston, so I don't mind backing the Nets at a price they just failed at in the last game. 10* Brooklyn |
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01-14-15 | LSU v. Ole Miss -6 | Top | 75-71 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
10* Mississippi (7:00 ET): Ole Miss has been a covering machine of late, going 5-0 ATS their last five, including a near upset of #1 Kentucky (in Lexington) last Tuesday. One might think that a letdown would be inevitable in their next game, but that simply was not the case as the Rebels bounced back from their 5th SU loss of the year by routing South Carolina, 65-49 as three-point favorites, here in Oxford. Tonight, they take on a LSU team that's off a three-point win over Georgia Saturday (double OT), but before that lost at Missouri (another OT game), who I played against last night and we all saw what happened there. Lay the points in this one as a rout is likely. With the SEC now a 14-team league, teams don't always meet twice during the regular season. That's been the case w/ these two the L2 years. Ole Miss has taken both matchups since the start of the 2012-13 campaign, both by 14 point margins, games where the line was three points or less. Last year, it was an 88-74 win here in Oxford w/ LSU not shooting the ball particularly well, just 36.9% for the game. Poor shooting cost them again in their last road game, Thursday at Missouri, as they made only 36.4%. On the road this season, the Tigers are scoring just 69 PPG. It should be another tough night here w/ Ole Miss holding visiting teams to just 63.1 PPG on 37.6% shooting this season. South Carolina shot just 36.7% and never led Saturday here at Tad Smith Coliseum. It's taken some time, but the Rebels' starting backcourt of Jarvis Summers and Stefan Moody finally seems to be gelling. The duo combined for 36 pts Saturday. Meanwhile, playing three overtime periods in a 48-hour span last week will likely have a negative effect here on LSU, who actually fell behind by as many as 9 points in the first OT vs. Georgia Saturday. You could say that the three-point shot was the difference maker as the Tigers were 11 for 29 from behind the arc while Georgia was just 2 for 12. When on the road, LSU is allowing opponents to shoot 38.7% from three-point range. So, you can look for a different story tonight. 10* Mississippi |
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01-14-15 | Toledo v. Ohio +4 | Top | 80-73 | Loss | -116 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
8* Ohio (7:00 ET): Save for a win over DePaul, things have not gone particularly well for Ohio dating all the way back to Thanksgiving. The Bobcats have dropped 7 of 10 overall and that includes an 0-2 start in MAC play w/ the latest loss coming Saturday at Bowling Green, 69-54. That followed an outright loss (as 8-pt faves) to Northern Illinois exactly one week ago here in Athens. Tonight, they'll look to bounce back against the conference favorites, that being Toledo, who is off an 84-67 win over Akron last Friday. It was a dominant second half for a team that's suffered several close losses already, and here I just don't like the Rockets laying points away from home. They're battle tested, but OU is desperate. It hasn't happened this year, or even the last couple seasons, but tonight Ohio falls into a role they've been absolutely perfect in over the long term. That's a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points, a range which has seen them cover eight straight times! They did lose (by two) getting just one point earlier this year vs. Belmont, the only previous time they've been a home dog in 2014-15. But they have also had Toledo's number here in Athens, winning of 8 of 10 home games against them, including last year's 95-90 victory as three-point favorites, an overtime game. Something to keep in mind is that the Rockets came into that game at 18-2 SU, so Ohio shouldn't be intimidated here. Toledo has played a fairly daunting schedule to this point, including road trips to VCU, Oregon and Duke. But they have not been immune to losing to inferior opponents, such as Central Michigan, who pulled a 65-62 upset in the MAC opener last Tuesday. That game was in Toledo. The Rockets do own three "true" road wins, but two of them were by five points or less, so again laying points on the road probably isn't the best situation for them. Overall, they're just 2-5 ATS as chalk this season. Friday against Akron, they were red hot from the field, shooting 56.3% for the game including 9 of 11 on three-pointers. I can't see that repeating itself tonight. Take the points. 8* Ohio |
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01-14-15 | North Carolina v. NC State +3.5 | Top | 81-79 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
8* NC State (7:00 ET): Wednesday sees North Carolina State going for a 2-0 sweep of their main rivals, Duke and North Carolina, who happen to be the blue ribbon programs in the ACC. Not only do I see the Wolfpack avoiding the letdown against the Tar Heels, I see the likelihood of an outright victory being pretty great. After playing both Virginia and Duke in the last seven days, it's clear that NC State won't be intimidated here and remember they lost by only one when UNC visited Raleigh last season. The Tar Heels are coming off a tough week where they played a couple of one-point games, first against Notre Dame, then vs. Louisville, splitting them, so you have to figure they are ripe to be upset here. Take the points. Though North Carolina has essentially "owned" this ACC rivalry, note that w/ the upset of Duke (were 9-pt dogs), NC State has now won 17 of its last 22 conference home games. While it is difficult to imagine the Wolfpack being any better than they were vs. the Blue Devils, where they shot 55% overall (10 of 16 from three-point range) and allowed only 36.9% shooting, they really don't have to be. We probably can count on another strong defensive effort as their four ACC opponents have combined to shoot just 37.3 percent from the floor. Making their task easier on that end of the floor is that UNC leading scorer Marcus Paige is dealing w/ plantar fasciitis. FWIW, Wednesday has been "pay day" for North Carolina State in the past. They are a perfect 12-0 ATS their L12 Wednesday games. More applicable here though is a 4-0 ATS mark against ACC foes. Meanwhile, after losing at home to Notre Dame last Monday, the Tar Heels needed to overcome a 13-point second half deficit against Louisville on Saturday, also in Chapel Hill. A size advantage over the Cardinals was crucial in that the Tar Heels enjoyed a tremendous edge on the boards, negating a significant deficit in transition points. UNC took 17 more shots than L'vill in the painted area. This has been an inconsistent team all year that has lost at home to both Butler and Iowa. 8* NC State |
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01-13-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Utah Jazz +8 | Top | 116-105 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
8* Utah (9:05 ET): You have to give it up to Golden State right now as they are "lapping the rest of the league" w/ a 29-5 SU record and a stunning +11.0 point differential on a per game basis. They have covered 75 percent of their games as a favorite (21-7 ATS) so far and a league high 69.7% overall. They arrive in Utah on a six-game win streak, covering the spread in each of the last five (despite being DD favorites three times!), but are again predictably big favorites and in this instance I do not think having three days off since their last game is any kind of help. Four of the Warriors' five losses this season have occurred on the road and while I don't think a SU loss here is too likely, I do see them struggling to cover this spread. Take the points. Utah comes off a tough three-game road trip that saw them play at Chicago, Oklahoma City and Houston. While most would have guessed they would have come up empty, they did beat Chicago by 20 points at the start of the trip. After that though, they fell in predictable fashion. Like the Warriors, the Jazz are also rested w/ their last game taking place Saturday. This will only be the second time all season that they have taken 6.5 or more points at home; the first was a 100-96 outright upset of San Antonio back on December 9th. Since that time, the team is a pretty respectable 11-6 at the betting window including a strong 7-1 ATS when taking eight or more points. I mentioned that four of the Warriors' five losses have come on the road. They are 0-3 SU their last three away from home and in that skid have averaged just 96.3 points per game on 43.2 percent shooting. While two of the losses came against the Clippers and Memphis, the other was as a large favorite to the Lakers, who were playing w/out Kobe Bryant. While their average margin of victory at home has come by roughly 15 PPG, on the road that number dips to "just" 6.2. If Utah can continue their recent strong play on the defensive end (92.2 PPG allowed L10 games), then they should be able to stay within the number here. 8* Utah |
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01-13-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers +5 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 100-107 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (9:05 ET): LeBron James may or may not play here (gametime decision). He practiced Tuesday, certainly a good sign, but with or without him I'm taking the points with the Cavs here in Phoenix. This is despite a 1-8 SU record without James, the latest loss coming in embarrassing fashion to Sacramento Sunday night by a final score of 103-84. That was their fifth loss in a row - both straight up and against the spread. If James were to play here, the number I got would obviously be a bargain, but even if he doesn't then there's still value as the Suns are off B2B losses to San Antonio and Memphis. After going 10-1 ATS over an 11-game stretch, Phoenix is 0-2-1 ATS its last three. Take the points. Cleveland is a poor defensive team, but the good news here is that so is Phoenix. Only a few teams are allowing more than the 105.0 PPG the Suns are and Sunday at Memphis, they gave up 122. While that number and the final margin are somewhat misleading (game went to double OT), let's not forget that this is also the same team that allowed 111 pts to Minnesota in regulation earlier in the road trip. Also, they were lucky to even be in extra time with the Grizzlies as they trailed that game by as many as 14 early in the fourth quarter (I had Memphis and won laying the points). The team is 1-3 ATS following a double digit loss this season. A James' return would obviously be big time. Statistically, he's having a very good season, averaging 25.2 points and 7.6 assists per game. There are also multiple new faces in the lineup w/ Timofey Mozgov turning in a solid debut w/ 14 pts and 12 rebounds Sunday and JR Smith being predictably erratic w/ two games of four points or less and one w/ 27. I refuse to believe this team is done as the East remains wide open. As for tonight, I look for a "circle the wagons" type performance regardless if James plays or not. 10* Cleveland |
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01-13-15 | Missouri v. Kentucky -23.5 | Top | 37-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
8* Kentucky (9:00 ET): All of a sudden, thanks to two close calls, the narrative surrounding #1 Kentucky has changed dramatically. They've gone from a team perceived to be highly likely to run the table to one that's all of a sudden very vulnerable. But the oddsmakers clearly aren't buying that here vs. Missouri and neither am I. After playing three overtime periods in their first two SEC games, the Wildcats should roll tonight in Lexington as Mizzou is w/out its second leading scorer Montaque Gill-Caesar (11.5 PPG). That's a big loss when facing the top team in the nation and the Tigers are already 0-6 SU all-time vs. UK. Lay the points. Kentucky is 11-0 SU at home so far w/ an average margin of victory of 25.5 points per game. Obviously, there are some "cupcake" teams mixed in there, but let's not forget this is a team that was able to beat North Carolina by a double digit margin on this floor and the Tar Heels are currently ranked in the Top 16 in the country and just beat Louisville. Missouri is just 1-6 SU outside of Columbia this season and this is actually just their third "true" road game. Their only win away from home thus far came at the expense of Chaminade. So their chances for success tonight in Lexington seem pretty slim to me. To be honest, Missouri's 7-8 SU record could be a lot worse. With the exception of an overtime win at home against LSU, their only other victory since December 11th came against Lipscomb. The Tigers have actually really struggled against inferior competition this year, including an outright loss in the season opener to the University of Missouri-Kansas City! Wins over Elon and SE Missouri State came by a combined nine points. They've played two ranked teams so far, Arizona and Oklahoma, and those games resulted in a pair of 19-point losses. Kentucky is obviously the toughest opponent they'll see all season and given what we've seen so far, there's no reason not to expect a blowout tonight. Look for Coach Cal's team to get back on track w/ a big national TV win. 8* Kentucky |
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01-12-15 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Boston Celtics +5 | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
10* Boston (7:35 ET): As I've written about previously, New Orleans is a team that has had difficulty sustaining any kind of success this season. Somewhat incredibly, they have yet to produce a win streak of more than two games. Thus, it should come as little surprise to see them entering tonight's contest w/ the most mediocre of records, exactly at .500 for the year (18-18 SU) w/ a scoring differential that's just barely in the black. While they may hail from the better conference, the Pelicans don't deserve to be favored by this many points Monday night in Boston, as the Celtics have generally been more competitive that their record shows, only being outscored on average by 1.5 points per game. Take the points here. New Orleans is off a win here, and an impressive one at that, as they downed Memphis Friday night, 106-95 as one-point home favorites. That was the third time this season that the Pelicans led a game wire-to-wire, but all of those victories have been at home. Prior to beating the Grizzlies, they had dropped two in a row, including an outright loss in Charlotte as 5.5-point favorites. This is a tough team to trust outside of the Big Easy, especially laying points, because they're just 6-13 SU away from home (including 0-6 vs. the Eastern Conference!). They average only 96.4 PPG on the road, so you shouldn't expect the same kind of shooting we saw vs. Memphis to take place here. The Pelicans made 10 of 20 three-pointers vs. the Grizzlies, a percentage that's way above their season average of 31.5% for the year behind the arc in road games. Meanwhile, I went AGAINST the Celtics in their last game and fortunately for me they were unable to cover up in Toronto, despite getting double digits. Things have not been good here since the Rajon Rondo trade as the team has lost 9 of 11. But many of those losses have been close (four by 5 pts or less) and at home Boston is averaging an impressive 104.6 PPG this season. The Celtics were also unrested going into Toronto, having played an overtime game the night before in Indiana. That put them at a severe disadvantage, one that they won't have to deal with tonight, and I see the end result being a game that goes down to the wire. 10* Boston. |
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01-11-15 | Portland Trail Blazers -6 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 106-94 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
10* Portland (9:35 ET): These teams just met a week ago and both are coincidentally coming off wins over Orlando as well. Last week, it was the Blazers escaping w/ a 98-94 win as big 13-point favorites, and they actually needed a rally behind Damian Lillard's 39 points to beat a Lakers team that was playing w/out Kobe Bryant. Kobe's presence this season has at times been more detriment than help and for tonight his status is questionable. The last time he played, he was awful, scoring just four points in a blowout loss to the Clippers. Without him, the team beat the Magic Friday night 101-84 as small favorites. But if he plays or not really doesn't matter as Portland is simply the much better team and I'll lay the small number. The Blazers have won three straight, seven of their last eight and 12 of their last 14. Next to Golden State, they are currently rated as my second best team in the league right now. Impressively, they lead the league not only in rebounding (46.6 per game), but also points allowed per game (96.5). That latter stat is the big difference between this year and last as they actually led the league in rebounding last year as well. Despite not covering, they did hold the Magic to just 92 pts last night, but the reason for them not covering is that they were laying double digits. They did, however, jump out to a 24-9 lead and would be up by as many as 19. Here, they should be able to score at will against a terrible Lakers defense that allows 107.6 PPG, which is second most in the entire league. Personally, I'd have this spread closer to double digits. Portland is actually averaging more points per game on the road (105.1) than at home. That's important because their defense isn't nearly what it is at home. But this is a Lakers team that was averaging just over 90 PPG over a three-game stretch before beating the Magic Friday. They've shot just 41 percent from the field since January 4th with Bryant playing a large role in that. What we have here is two teams at very opposite ends of the spectrum (my 2nd rated team vs. my 27th!) and that makes laying a very short number really attractive, even on the road. 10* Portland |
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01-11-15 | California v. UCLA -7 | Top | 54-73 | Win | 100 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
10* UCLA (7:30 ET): Right away, this line should tell you something about Cal. Before picking up a much needed win (in overtime) Thursday vs. Stanford, UCLA had dropped five in a row straight up and was performing even worse at the betting window, failing to cover seven straight times and 10 of their last 11. But the Bears have been no better of late, dropping four of five w/ their last three losses all coming in games where they were favored. Last time out, it was a 71-57 loss at USC, not a good sign considering how poor the Trojans have looked this year for HC Andy Enfield. UCLA still only has one loss all season at home and could be undervalued in the short-term due to bad losses to a pair of Top 10 teams. Cal is not a Top 10 team, in case you hadn't looked at the rankings in a while. It's not like UCLA was playing bad teams during its losing streak. Three of the teams that the Bruins faced are currently ranked inside the Top 10: Gonzaga, Kentucky and Utah and only the Gonzaga game took place here in Westwood. A big reason for UCLA's home success this year is that their scoring average jumps all the way to 85.1 points per game. They will be challenged to match that here against a Cal defense allowing just 61.9 PPG. But last year, they had no problem scoring on the Bears, averaging 81 PPG in a pair of wins, one of them coming by 20 in Berkeley. Cal also can't score as they average just 62.4 PPG away from home. Scoring in that range here tonight will almost certainly lead to a blowout loss. The Bears shot just 35.4 percent against USC, which was the 8th time in the last 10 games that they failed to cover. So we actually have two teams that have been shaky propositions at the betting window of late. This is the first time Cal has had to play B2B "true" road games all season and in this instance I feel the home court is being undervalued. We saw the turnaround for the Bruins against Stanford and it continues here. 10* UCLA |
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01-11-15 | Phoenix Suns v. Memphis Grizzlies -5 | Top | 110-122 | Win | 100 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
8* Memphis (6:05 ET): At the betting window, these teams have been trending in opposite directions w/ Phoenix at 10-2-1 ATS their L13 and Memphis just 3-8 ATS their L11. To boot, the Grizzlies are coming off B2B SU losses on the road, to Atlanta & New Orleans, coming into this one. However, they have beaten the Suns all five times the teams have played the L2 seasons, including a 102-91 win in Phoenix earlier in this season. Defensively, these teams are certainly at opposite ends of the spectrum as Memphis allows just 97.8 points per game (8th) and Phoenix is at 104.5 PPG (28th), a number that jumps to 106.2 on the road. Defense has played a role in the Grizz's win streak over the Suns as they've held them to an average of just 92.6 PPG. I'm backing the home team in this one. Both teams are also in the process of bringing new players in via trade. In the case of Memphis, that will be Jeff Green and his career best 17.6 PPG average. Green will not be in the lineup tonight, however, but PG Mike Conley certainly will and he's averaging 23.3 PPG (59% shooting) to go along w/ 8.3 assists per game his L3 games vs. the Suns. Having the home court is a nice advantage here for Memphis as they've won their L2 games at the FedEx Forum by double digits while Phoenix is just 5-9 SU on the road vs. the Western Conference. As a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 pts, the Grizz are a perfect 4-0 SU this year and 3-1 ATS. Phoenix may have the newly acquired Brendan Wright in the lineup Sunday. Considering they were outscored 50-32 in the paint by San Antonio on Friday, you can see why they would covet Wright. But Wright alone will not be able to overcome Phoenix's issues defensively and in case you hadn't heard Memphis now has Zach Randolph back in the lineup. He had 11 pts, 11 rebounds his return vs. New Orleans and w/ he and Marc Gasol both healthy and in the lineup this is a totally different team, one that actually turned in the best record in the league in the calendar year for 2014. Memphis also comes in averaging 104.9 PPG at home. They are a safe bet at home. 8* Memphis. |
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01-10-15 | San Jose State v. UNLV -21 | Top | 40-74 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
8* UNLV (10:00 ET): The Runnin' Rebels have been a very up and down team this season. After they upset Arizona right before Christmas, I took them in their next game, against overmatched Southern Utah. They won that one, 79-45 as 17-point chalk. But since then, it's been three straight losses. It started at Wyoming on New Year's Eve (did cover there) and then they fell at Kansas, which is certainly understandable. They didn't cover in Lawrence, but even so, I suppose it was somewhat predictable that they would have a letdown Thursday at home vs. in-state rival Nevada, who beat the Rebels outright as 9.5-point dogs, 64-62. Tonight though I see Dave Rice's team getting back on track against a San Jose State team that has been absolutely brutal. San Jose State's only two wins this year have been against Bethesda and St. Catharine, neither of which is a D-I school. They've even lost to another non-board team, that being Seattle by a score of 54-38 and that was at home. Simply put, you're not going to find many teams in the country worse than the Spartans. They are just 3-9 ATS in lined games and averaging only 55.6 points per game. This has been a program in disarray for some time now as is evident by an 18-57 SU record and 23-43 ATS mark the L3 seasons. On December 31st, they were held to 33 points by Utah State, and then on the road again Wednesday they lost to Air Force by 22. The AFA shot a preposterous 61.1 percent in that game. UNLV is going to be "out for blood" here as they have yet to win a conference game. They've lost only one time at the Thomas & Mack Center, that being the Nevada game, so the odds of bouncing back strong are high here. The Rebels beat SJSU by 24, on the road, last year and easily covered the 8.5-point spot. We've seen them handle the bad teams on their schedule so far and this one should be no different. Lay the points. 8* UNLV |
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01-10-15 | Santa Clara +25 v. Gonzaga | Top | 57-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
10* Santa Clara (8:00 ET): Despite having to open WCC play w/ three straight road games, #6 Gonzaga has cleaned up w/ a 3-0-1 ATS mark and obviously winning all four games straight up in convincing fashion. They finally got to play a conference home game earlier this week and delivered a massive beatdown to San Francisco, 88-57, as 20.5-point chalk. So Santa Clara definitely appears to be "up against it" Saturday night in Spokane. Twice thus far the Broncos have been blown out by WCC opponents, including 78-61 at Portland Thursday night. But they've won their other two league games and as I've mentioned before Gonzaga is going to get everyone's best shot this year. Take the points as we have a big number here. Though we've heard a similar narrative before, this could very well be Mark Few's best team ever. They are outscoring teams by an average of 21.2 points per game so far and their only loss came at Arizona in overtime. But that average margin of victory, as lofty as it is, still would not be enough to cover this spread. Because of the 'Zags strong start to conference play, we're already seeing huge, inflated lines. Only two teams have beaten Santa Clara by what the oddmakers are calling for here, those being Michigan State and BYU. Gonzaga may be their toughest opponent yet, but one they are at least familiar with. In fact, last year saw the Broncos stay within two points of the 'Zags in two of the three meetings. The other one, which was here in Spokane, also saw them cover (as 16-pt dogs). So that's 3-0 ATS and Santa Clara is also 4-2 ATS the past three seasons when taking 12.5 or more points on the road. Just to put this line in perspective, it will only be the fourth time Gonzaga has been asked to lay between 24.5 and 30 points in the last three seasons. Previously, they've gone just 1-2 ATS. Eventually, they are going to have an "off-night" and I don't expect them to continue this ridiculously hot 52.8% shooting clip they've been on (season-to-date). This is an overlay. 10* Santa Clara |
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01-10-15 | Boston Celtics v. Toronto Raptors -11.5 | Top | 96-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
10* Toronto (7:35 ET): This is a really tough spot for Boston coming off an overtime loss in Indiana last night. The team has not played well since trading away Rajon Rondo and arrives North of the Border having dropped 8 of its last 10. For much of the year, I've labeled this team as underrated as they have an ability to score (102.6 PPG) and are only being outscored by 1.1 points on a per game basis. But tonight, they are running into an angry bunch of Raptors that will be eager to end a shocking four-game slide (SU and ATS). Plus, you can look for Toronto to score plenty of points against a Celtics defense that comes in allowing 103.7 PPG for the year. The Raptors are averaging an Eastern Conference best 107.7 PPG. Lay the points. Toronto's last loss came in pretty shocking fashion as they were 13-point favorites against Charlotte Thursday night, but ended up on the wrong side of a 103-95 decision. That was their first game back home after a six-game road trip that did not end well w/ the team losing three in a row out on the West Coast. Despite the loss, they're still 14-4 SU at home, outscoring teams by nine points per game. I realize that this is a high spread, but consider that before this current losing skid, the Raptors had not dropped more than two straight all season. DeMar DeRozan (missed L19 games) not being back yet has hurt, but they're a much better team than Boston and should be able to take advantage of a depleted roster. The Raptors have won all five division games this season. Meanwhile, Boston is running out of bodies. Just last night (right before tip-off), they dealt leading scorer Jeff Green to Memphis. So, if you're keeping score the team's leading scorer and assist man are now both gone. They were still able to hang last night in Indiana, despite falling behind early, but actually had to overcome a 13-point deficit in the fourth quarter just to force OT. They didn't shoot well (39.8%), but fortunately neither did Indiana. Here, I expect the Raptors to bring their 'A' game offensively and be able to score at will against what has been a pretty porous Boston defense. 10* Toronto |
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01-10-15 | Cincinnati v. Connecticut -4.5 | Top | 56-62 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show |
8* Connecticut (11:00 AM ET): Despite not having one double digit scorer on the roster and coach Mick Cronin taking a leave of absence due to health issues, Cincinnati has somehow managed to keep it together w/ four straight wins. They've covered the three games where there was a line. But tonight sees them facing their toughest test w/out Cronin as they visit UConn, a team I just won w/ earlier in the week in a blowout of South Florida. As I mentioned there, the Huskies having five losses really isn't as bad as it sounds as three of them have come by a combined six points (two by 1 pt, the other in OT) and the other two were to Duke and West Virginia (both ranked) at neutral sites. At home, I look for the defending National Champs to roll here. The Huskies come into this game off B2B road wins over Florida and USF. Keep in mind that those were their first "true" road games of the season. We've seen this team clean up at the betting window over the last two Januarys, going a combined 13-4 against the spread. And as we saw against South Florida, they are capable of playing tremendous defense. The Bulls scored only 44 points on 38.3 percent shooting as UConn is allowing just 59.5 PPG this season. At home, that number drops down to 57.2. The fact that they were still able to beat the Bulls by a comfortable margin was impressive when you consider that leading scorer Ryan Boatright (16.8 PPG) was in foul trouble most of the game and that the offense got off to a slow start. Cincinnati can also play some defense, but can they score? They've failed to top 60 pts seven different times this season, one of those even coming in a double OT loss to Nebraska. The Bearcats' only other "true" road game since then resulted in an impressive win over NC State, so the hostile environment here could be an issue. Also, don't expect UConn to shoot as poorly as East Carolina did against Cincinnati Tuesday. The Huskies are 10-3 ATS the L13 meetings vs. the Bearcats, covering the last five. Most recent matchups have been close and low-scoring, but today I just can't see the visitors hanging around. 8* Connecticut |