Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-03-16 | Wolves +11.5 v. Clippers | Top | 108-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (10:35 ET): The T'wolves are off a really embarrassing loss last night as they fell to the Lakers, 119-115 as four-point road favorites. They'll be back at Staples Center tonight, only this time to face the Clippers and while the matchup seems far less favorable, taking the points remains an attractive option here. Teams playing in the second game of a back to back, especially on the road and off a loss, are typically undervalued by the linesmakers. I realize that being off a SU loss as a favorite has not been kind to Minnesota this year (0-6 ATS in that role), plus they are 0-8 SU in the second game of a B2B. But a double digit pointspread is simply too good to pass up in this instance as the Clips can be "caught napping." Take the points. Yet another trend that Minnesota must overcome here is that they have lost 14 straight times to the Clippers. The most recent setback came in early December, at home, but that game was decided by only four points. Earlier in the year, they lost by only eight (were +10) here in LA. Because they've lost five straight coming into tonight, the spread is predictably higher for the third go-around. But note that three of the T'wolves last four games have been decided by four points or less and another saw them lose by only seven in Cleveland. Thanks to almost always being the underdog, the team has performed much better against the spread when on the road, going 14-11 this year. I don't know how they lost last night considering they shot 57.5% from the field. Then again, they were just 4 of 17 from three-point range. Further helping to drive up the value here is the fact the Clippers are coming off an impressive 120-93 win and cover over Chicago. That was the team's fourth straight win, though two of those (both on the road) came by just two points each. Remember that Blake Griffin remains out and I'll question just how long this recent defensive "renaissance" (94.0 PPG allowed L5 games) can continue. For the season, LA is allowing just over 100 points per game. After a double digit win, the Clips are only 5-9 ATS this year. This is a situation where the road team should be able to take advantage of a generous pointspread. 8* Minnesota |
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02-03-16 | Notre Dame v. Miami (Fla) -5.5 | Top | 70-79 | Win | 100 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
8* Miami FL (7:00 ET): After "zigging" Saturday, It's time to "zag" w/ the Hurricanes. Yes, I just played AGAINST "The U" in their last game and the result was even better than I had hoped for as they lost outright, 85-69 at North Carolina State as five-point favorites. But tonight they return to Coral Gables where they are 10-1 SU for the season including a perfect 4-0 (3-1 ATS) in ACC play where every win has been by double digits. Remember what I'd said in my analysis for the NC State game. This had been a hot team prior to visiting Raleigh w/ three straight wins to its credit. They do a great job when it comes to not turning the ball over and defensive rebounding. I expect them to bounce back tonight w/ a win. Lay the points. When it comes to facing Notre Dame, three-point shooting will likely determine the outcome of this game. The Fighting Irish shoot the ball well from behind the arc, particularly on the road (41.0 percent!), which seems really high and unlikely to be sustained. Miami is excellent when it comes to limiting the number of looks from three-point range and when the opponent does attempt from distance, they are shooting just 29.1% here in Coral Gables. Overall, the 'Canes are holding teams to just 0.89 points per possession at home. Meanwhile, Notre Dame's 3-pt FG% defense is bad w/ opponents making over 38 percent against them. Miami's three-point prowess has tailed off a bit in conference play, but both Sheldon McClellan (3 for 15 L3 games) and Angel Rodriguez are due to start finding more success in that department. Unlike last season, when Notre Dame took both meetings, Miami is the more experienced team this time around. They're off the loss to NC State, who shot the ball better than expected, but a hot shooting opponent is less likely here at home. The Fighting Irish lost their last road game, 81-66 at Syracuse, and I'd say they are unlikely to replicate the hot shooting we saw Sunday vs. Wake Forest (who is a poor defensive team). They've gone just 3-6 ATS this year after scoring 80+ points in the previous game. I also think that an extra day to prepare for this game is significant for the home team. 8* Miami (FL) |
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02-03-16 | VCU v. La Salle +14 | Top | 88-70 | Loss | -106 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
10* La Salle (7:00 ET): Admittedly, this looks like a tough one on paper. Over the course of the last several seasons, Virginia Commonwealth has proved that a move from the CAA to the A-10 would in no way inhibit their success. This year, they're showing that they don't miss the architect of the program's ascension (Shaka Smart) either. Currently, VCU is one of only a handful of teams in America yet to suffer a conference loss (8-0 SU). The Rams last lost on December 19th and have since rattled off 11 consecutive victories, all but three of them coming by double digits. They continue to rank among the nation's best in terms of forcing turnovers and have shot 38 percent from three-point range. Yet, I feel tonight has "trap game" written all over it. Take the points. At the opposite end of the Atlantic 10 spectrum, we have La Salle, who has lost six straight games and is tied for last place in the Conference. All six losses during the losing streak have come by double digits. Wretched shooting has really hurt the Explorers this season, the last five games in particular as they are just 34.3 percent from the field. That number can only improve. At one point, they missed 10 straight shots Saturday in a 59-44 loss at Dayton. That resulted in a three-point deficit (w/ just over 11 minutes to go) turning into a 16-point hole. At home, however, the Explorers shoot a more respectable 44.3% from the field and they did pull a huge upset over the Flyers (Dayton) here (as 11.5-pt pups) back on January 9th. Tonight will be just the second time playing at Tom Gola Arena since that upset. I'm banking on this being an easy game for VCU to overlook. It won't be broadcast locally and it's a matchup w/ arguably the weakest team in the league. But, it's also the second of B2B road games w/ a more important contest (at home) looming this Friday vs. George Washington. Like another conference unbeaten, San Diego State (who I successfully played against yday), we've probably reached a "tipping point" w/ the Rams who are 12-4 ATS in all games this season. On the road this season, they are only outscoring opponents by 1.5 PPG. The Explorers will find a way to keep this one close. 10* La Salle |
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02-02-16 | Colorado State +12.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 67-69 | Win | 100 | 21 h 5 m | Show |
8* Colorado State (11:00 ET): Scanning the current conference standings across the country, only a handful of teams are w/o a loss. One such team is San Diego State, who is 9-0 SU in the Mountain West following an upset of UNLV over the weekend. The Aztecs continue to lean on a defense that is allowing just 59.5 points per game, but they will be tested here by a Colorado State squad that comes in averaging an impressive 81.2 PPG (tied for 26th in the country). This is a rematch from three weeks ago when SDSU went to Fort Collins and pulled out a 69-62 win as three-point favorites. The number is predictably inflated for the rematch and thus it's time to take advantage and take the points. The Aztecs are favored by double digits here, something that has not been the case for them very often in Mountain West play. It's happened twice recently and neither time did they cover. They pushed laying 12 here at home vs. Wyoming and then didn't cover a large 19-point spread against a terrible San Jose State team (arguably worst team in the conference). CSU is clearly better than both of those teams. It was a double digit win for the Aztecs Saturday in Vegas, but five of their previous seven victories were by single digit margins. They have a trio of victories by exactly three points. I just don't think this team has enough offensively to cover spreads as large as this one. Colorado State will be looking to rebound from a disappointing result over the weekend, one that saw them lose up in Wyoming, which is a tough place to play. This is the top scoring team in the conference, which will serve them well catching this many points. Similar to SDSU not having had to lay double digits many times, rarely has Colorado State been catching so many points. There's been only one other time that the Rams have caught double digits in MWC play. They covered at Boise State (lost by only four), scoring 80 points. They've also stayed within five of Kansas State (from the best conference in the country, the Big 12) on a neutral court, covering there as well. Look for the Rams to make enough shots to stay within the number here. 8* Colorado State |
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02-02-16 | Buffalo v. Northern Illinois -3 | Top | 90-78 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
10* Northern Illinois (9:00 ET): We have two teams off very different results here in the MAC Tuesday night. Northern Illinois lost, as a 5.5-point favorite, at lowly Miami over the weekend while Buffalo was able to go to Toledo and pull a wire to wire upset as 5.5-point dogs. Northern Illinois still is tied for first place in the MAC West, but has dropped B2B games after a 6-0 start in conference play. The loss to Miami was really embarrassing as the RedHawks had previously been winless vs. the rest of the MAC. But the key here is that the Huskies are back in DeKalb where they are a perfect 13-0 SU this season, outscoring teams by a whopping 19.0 points per game. Homecourt advantage is the deciding factor here. Lay the points. While not all those home games have come against top tier competition, the fact is that NIU is 7-1 ATS here including a perfect 4-0 when laying three or less. I don't envision a repeat of the poor shooting we saw in the Miami game where the Huskies finished at just 34.0 percent from the field. Five players combined to go 0 for 17! That was the second time in three games they failed to score 60 points, but what has consistently saved this team is their defense. They held Toledo to just 31.1 percent their last time here and keep in mind they are allowing just 60.5 PPG in DeKalb. The record in conference games is still 29-14 ATS the L3 seasons and this is a double revenge spot as Buffalo has won both meetings the L2 years. Buffalo allows 77 PPG on the road. Their last time away from home, they gave up 91 in a blowout loss to Western Michigan. This will be the Bulls' third time playing B2B road games since conference play got underway. So far, they have won the first game all three times. They are 0-2 in the second leg coming into tonight, allowing 86 PPG. So recent history is certainly against them. The Bulls don't shoot the ball particularly well away from home (39.6 percent) and are quite unlikely to match the kind of three-point shooting we saw from Miami against NIU here. Recent form has brought this line down far below what it should be and created a ton of value on the favorite. 10* Northern Illinois |
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02-02-16 | Celtics -2 v. Knicks | Top | 97-89 | Win | 100 | 18 h 42 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:35 ET): The Celtics had to settle for a split of a home and home w/ Orlando over the weekend as they lost out on the road Sunday due to giving up 119 points on 53.7% shooting. Assuming that they can correct whatever issues there were on defense in that game, I see Brad Stevens' team bouncing back from that outright loss w/ a win here in the Big Apple. Scoring certainly has not been an issue for Boston as they've topped 100 points 12 straight times, averaging 113.2 PPG the L5 games. The Knicks, meanwhile, are trending down w/ five losses in six games and the one win was against Phoenix. Lay the short number here. I expect the Celtics to start moving up the Eastern Conference pecking order. They have the third best point differential (+4.2 per game), trailing only Cleveland and Toronto. The number of blowout victories Boston has produced this year is quite impressive (17 of 27 wins have been by double digits). A poor record in close games has cost them (1-6 SU L7 games decided by 5 pts or less), but is due to turn. It was a six-point loss here at MSG last month (Knicks were 27 of 30 at FT line!). But they are 13-9 ATS playing w/ revenge. The defense should improve here as in the five games previous to the Orlando loss, the Celtics allowed an average of 41.6 percent shooting. Also, don't discount the impact of points off turnovers. The Knicks are last in the league in that department while no team turns its opponents over more than does Boston. The Knicks are not playing well right now. Rookie sensation Kristaps Porzingis has tailed off and he was the key w/ 26 points in 26 minutes in the 120-114 win over Boston last month. In four of their last six games, the team has been held to 95 points or fewer. While they've still outperformed preseason expectations, the fact is that New York is still being outscored on the season and the record vs. teams w/ a winning record (9-17 including four straight losses) is not impressive. Somewhat predictably, they got torched by Golden State last time out, losing by 19, and that signals a poor result is likely here w/ the team just 5-11 SU after allowing 105+ points last game. 8* Boston |
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02-02-16 | Western Michigan v. Toledo -6 | Top | 62-89 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
8* Toledo (7:00 ET): The Rockets have lost three in a row, the last two coming at home. That surprises me. They were seven-point favorites in an 81-79 loss to Ohio last Tuesday and a 5.5-point favorite in a 73-68 loss to Buffalo on Saturday. I'm really shocked to see this team have only a 6-4 SU home record as they are averaging 81.4 PPG here and outscoring opponents by a double digit margin for the season. As you might expect, they have not shot the ball particularly well during this losing skid. It's been 40% or lower in every game, which obviously needs to improve, but fortunately for them tonight they are getting Western Michigan outside of Kalamazoo. The Broncos are just 1-8 SU in road/neutral site affairs while averaging just 64.2 points per game. Lay the points here. Western Michigan gave up a lot of points (86) in its victory Saturday over rival Eastern Michigan, 63 of them in the second half in fact. One would have to go back to December to find the last time the Broncos posted B2B SU victories. In that instance, they were fortunate enough to play Marygrove (a non-DI school). There has been no other instance this year of WMU winning consecutive contests. Now, they aren't favored here, but note they have a poor 3-11 ATS record as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. With the poor defensive effort last time out & the poor YTD offensive numbers on the road, it is difficult to see this team playing well in this spot. It is a virtual certainty that their three-point shooting percentage will drop from the last game where they went 10 of 14. Keep in mind that in "true" road games, the Broncos are 0 for 6 (straight up). Shockingly, Toledo never led Saturday at home vs. Buffalo. That came on the heels of falling behind Ohio by as many as 20 points. Could they really play poorly for a third straight time at home? I'm willing to bet that the answer is no. This three-game losing streak is the program's longest in the last three seasons. The market has had them favored in 15 of 18 lined games thus far, so while they've fallen short of expectations, I do think it speaks volumes as to where the Rockets SHOULD be in the MAC pecking order. I like them to win big here. 8* Toledo |
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02-02-16 | South Carolina v. Georgia | Top | 56-69 | Win | 100 | 17 h 5 m | Show |
10* Georgia (7:00 ET): South Carolina still only has just two losses on its resume, yet they remain on the fringes of the Top 25, which is telling w/ a group of people who generally lean too heavily on wins and losses. The Gamecocks have exceeded even the wildest expectations of HC Frank Martin, going 19-2 SU and 13-4 ATS overall. Interestingly, this looks like the first time all year that they may close as an underdog. Reconciling that w/ the notion of overachieving can be a little bit contradictory, but it also speaks to the fact that the schedule has been somewhat weak. Recent road games have presented a bit of trouble (lost 2 of 3) and after a big revenge win at home Saturday, I see them dropping another here. Georgia is South Carolina's opponent tonight. While the Bulldogs lost both regular season matchups to the Gamecocks last year, they wound up the third time proved to be "the charm" in the SEC Tournament. They come into tonight off a pair of tough road losses to LSU and Baylor. Despite the results on the scoreboard there, the 'Dawgs should be ready to "bark" here, so to speak. Getting to step outside of SEC play over the weekend (Big 12 Challenge) while South Carolina did not is actually an advantage, I think. UGA actually led Baylor by three at halftime, in Waco mind you, and that's a place where no non-Big 12 team has won in the last 34 tries. This is a team w/ four double digit scorers on its roster and they are 10-3 SU here in Athens. Remember that they destroyed another South Carolina school, that being Clemson, here right after X-Mas. I played against South Carolina in their last road game, which was a 78-69 loss to Tennessee, another game that closed in the Pick 'em range. That followed a narrow win at Ole Miss where overtime was required after the Gamecocks somehow rallied back from an 11-point deficit in the final four minutes. They've also lost by 23 at Alabama. Yes, Martin's team has bounced back w/ B2B wins, including avenging that 'Bama loss on Saturday. But they shouldn't count on getting to the free throw line 46 times like they did Saturday (only made 28!). Plus, it will be tough for USC to continue getting away w/ allowing 37.4% three-point shooting on the road. Georgia's three-point numbers are more in line w/ what you'd like to see. 10* Georgia |
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02-01-16 | Wizards v. Thunder -9.5 | Top | 98-114 | Win | 100 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): Despite being considered no worse than the fourth best team in basketball (I have them ranked 3rd), the Thunder have had plenty of problems w/ the pointspread this season. In fact, entering today, they have the second worst ATS record in the entire league (18-30-1 ATS), trailing only Phoenix. Yet the market continues to respect them and deservedly so. They are 36-13 straight up and have lost only one time in their last 11 games. Meanwhile, the non-political news out of Washington shows that the Wizards are off an outright win over Houston (whom OKC also just beat in their last game) after calling a "players-only" meeting. Some will be foolish enough to think that said meeting corrected whatever ails the Wiz, but not I, as the fact of the matter is this team simply isn't very good. Lay the points. Oklahoma City does come into tonight on a five-game ATS losing streak. The problem has been their defense, which has allowed 115 points per game during that time. Consider though that one of those games did go to overtime. Also, four were played on the road. Their last, a 116-108 win over Houston wasn't, but they still are allowing just 98.4 PPG here at home for the season. A "return to form" is what I expect here tonight. The Thunder should have a big edge defensively as Washington is just awful on that end of the floor, ranking 20th in efficiency and giving up 104.8 PPG. With OKC being #2 in offensive efficiency, they should have no problems scoring here against the Wizards. These teams already met once this season and the Thunder dominated in D.C., winning 125-101. They were a seven-point favorite in that contest, which makes the line rather curious here. Not surprisingly, OKC shot the ball very well against the Wizards, finishing 51.2% for the game, including 15 of 23 from three-point range. Washington was just 39.2% overall and 5 of 24 from behind the arc. I anticipate tonight's game to play out in similar fashion. The Wizards are just 2-7 ATS off a SU dog win this year and w/o HC Randy Wittman (brother passed away). Westbrook and Durant will be too much. 10* Oklahoma City |
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02-01-16 | North Carolina v. Louisville -1 | Top | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
10* Louisville (7:00 ET): Rick Pitino's Cardinals ran into a buzzsaw named Virginia Saturday afternoon. The 11th ranked Cavaliers came to the KFC YUM! Center and destroyed the Cards, 63-47 as five-point dogs. Things got ugly in a hurry w/ L'ville scoring only 14 first half points en route to suffering their worst ever loss at the KFC YUM! Center. There were 18 turnovers and UVA shot a somewhat preposterous 58 percent from the field w/ L'ville shot a season-worst 33 percent. As bad as that all sounds, the good news is that it's just one game and Pitino's charges will have a shot at atoning for that miserable performance here tonight, back at home, against #2 North Carolina. The computers still love Louisville and so do I, thus I'll call for a bounce back and a win. Right after Louisville had been humbled by Virginia Saturday afternoon, North Carolina took care of business (as 26-pt favorites!) at home against Boston College. It's quite rare to see a favorite of that size in conference play, but it was actually the second time the Tar Heels had been favored by that many over the Eagles in recent years. The win was UNC's 12th in a row, but I believe it's important to note that none of those came against ranked opponents and just one (Clemson) opponent had a winning record in ACC play. They did beat a pretty good NC State team by 12 in Chapel Hill, but overall the ACC slate has been pretty "light" for Roy Williams and company. Forcing turnovers (season-high 23) vs. Boston College was a real key Saturday. Interestingly, before shooting 53.7 percent against BC, the Tar Heels had been below 40 percent from the field in three consecutive games. Clearly, each team's previous result has played a significant role in this line being so low. I'm quite fond of the ideas of "buying low" and "selling high," and that's what we have the opportunity to do here. Consider that Louisville still has one of the best scoring differentials in the country (+19.1 PPG) and even after the loss to Virginia that number jumps to +26.8 at home! One would have to go pretty far back in time to find the last time the Cardinals were this small a home favorite, let alone a Pick or even underdog. The value here resides w/ them, plus UNC's three point shooting numbers should continue to worry their backers (just 30.8% themselves, 41.8% allowed). 10* Louisville |
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01-31-16 | Oregon v. Arizona State +2 | Top | 91-74 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
10* Arizona State (8:30 ET): Oregon is off a very impressive road win as they snapped Arizona's 49-game home win streak Thursday w/ an 83-75 win as seven-point underdogs. Now comes the inevitable letdown as they have to play a second road game this weekend, this one in Tempe. Arizona State was due for a big win (had lost three straight by 5 pts or less) and that's what they got w/ an 86-68 beatdown of Oregon State here on Thursday. That improved their mark to a strong 9-3 straight up here in Tempe this season. They played the Ducks tough twice last year, but lost both meetings by a total of four points. Time for a bit of revenge in my estimation as this is just the third time the Sun Devils are catching points in Tempe. The first saw them beat Texas A&M (a top five team!) outright. Take the points. Oregon shot 51.6% in their upset of Arizona, but the bigger story was them overcoming the Wildcats shooting 61.0% from the field! Obviously, it is unlikely that they will have such a hot shooting opponent again. But the Ducks are just 1-6 against the spread the last seven times they have laid three points or less on the road and have lost five of those games outright. We know that the rankings can often times be misleading and the fact is that there's really little difference between where Oregon is at (23rd) and Arizona State is. When taking home court advantage into account, I'm not sure that the wrong team isn't favored here. The Ducks were only 1-2 SU in "true" road games before the upset of Arizona. ASU shot a season-best 59.3% vs. Oregon State, but the more encouraging sign for HC Bobby Hurley had to be his team's defense. OSU's best player, Gary Payton II, was held to just two points. On offensive, five Sun Devils scored in double figures and it should be noted that the team has topped 80 points in every Pac 12 home game so far. Another key here could be free throw shooting. As "eye rolling" as it may be, the ASU fans distracting opposing FT shooters does work (road teams shooting just 68.7% from the FT line here) and Oregon is the worst FT shooting team in the Pac 12. 10* Arizona State |
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01-31-16 | Wisconsin v. Illinois +2 | Top | 63-55 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
8* Illinois (7:30 ET): If you like close games, then you have to be loving Wisconsin's run here in Big 10 play, which has seen all but one game (a 79-57 win over lowly Rutgers) decided by six points or less. Following three straight tough losses (by a total of nine points), the Badgers have rallied back to win three in a row (by a total of 10 pts), including Tuesday's 82-79 upset of Indiana (were 1.5 pt home dogs) that required overtime. I was on the Badgers there, but after pulling two upsets in the last three games, now it's time to fade as they visit an Illinois team that will be angry after suffering a home loss (as 2-pt favorites) to Ohio State earlier in the week. The Illini will also have revenge on their minds for last season's sweep at the hands of the Badgers. Take the points. It was also an overtime game for Illinois their last time out, but as I just stated, they came out on the wrong end against Ohio State. They shot just 32 percent from the field and missed 13 of 31 free throws, costly seeing as the game went to OT. They did trail by as many as 13 in the second half, so perhaps a late rally will carry over into this game. It's been a tough time for John Groce's team in Big 10 play (2-6 SU conference record), but they have been much better defensively the L2 games (both of which went to OT), holding opponents to 69.5 PPG despite the 10 extra minutes played and have one of the lowest turnover rates in the entire nation (14.3 percent). Better time should be ahead. I really don't think that Wisconsin should be favored here. They are just 5-8 ATS in that role this season and have a losing road record (straight up). They did cover as a short road favorite 10 days ago, but that was against Penn State. Note that Illinois did beat Purdue on this floor earlier this month. The Illini's top two scorers - Malcolm Hill (18.3 PPG) and Kendrick Nunn (17.9) remain the league's highest scoring duo on any team. Shockingly, Wisconsin has won eight straight in this Big 10 rivalry, including a pair of double digit wins last season. After topping 80 points in their previous game, the Badgers are 0-3 ATS this season. It's time for Wisconsin to cool off and Illinois to pick up a big win. 8* Illinois |
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01-31-16 | Suns +11.5 v. Mavs | Top | 78-91 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (7:05 ET): Back on December 14th, Dallas picked up what seemed like a "ho-hum" 104-94 home win and cover (-3.5) at the expense of Phoenix. Since that time, I probably don't need to tell you that it's been nothing but "dark days" for these Suns, who have gone an unfathomably bad 3-20 SU their last 23 games. The result of this is a much larger spread for tonight's trip into "Big D" and this time, I think there is some pretty significant value on the visitors. Remember that last week's top play was on a large underdog (Brooklyn) that seemingly had nothing going right for it. It's a similar mentality tonight in taking the points as the Mavs probably don't deserve to be in such a lofty price range. Tonight actually marks the first time that Dallas has been favored in consecutive games since early in the month when they hosted New Orleans and Sacramento (didn't cover either game). Helping to drive up the line here is the fact the Mavericks are coming off a 91-79 win and cover over Brooklyn Friday night. That was the second fewest points given up by the Mavs in a game all season. The fewest was 77 in a win over Chicago on January 15th and note they followed that performance up by losing by 29 at San Antonio (allowed 112 pts). Despite being five games over .500, the Mavs have been outscored by their opponents this season and they've had a great deal of good fortune this month, winning three overtime games. When factoring out those OT sessions, the team has topped 100 pts only three times in January! For Phoenix, this is the finale of a four-game trip, the first three all resulting in double digit losses. Just to show how much the market has (deservingly) shifted against them, the Suns were six-point favorites in the season opener vs. Dallas. I took the Mavs there, but public perception has now shifted too far in the other direction. The Mavs' 28-21 ATS record is a far cry from last year while no one has been worse than Phoenix at the betting window this season. However, the great equalizer here is the fact that Dallas has not been a double digit fave even one time in 2015-16. Take the points. 10* Phoenix |
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01-31-16 | Wichita State v. Evansville +4.5 | Top | 78-65 | Loss | -119 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
10* Evansville (4:00 ET): This is a matchup of the top two teams in the Missouri Valley and for first place Wichita State, who is two games up, they have an opportunity to put some real distance between them and the field. However, the Purple Aces of Evansville should have something to say about that as not only did they come closer than any other MVC team to beating the Shockers, but they are also a perfect 11-0 SU at home this season, winning by an average margin of almost 20 points per game! Last month in Wichita, Evansville lost by only three (as 10.5-pt underdogs), but because of how dominant the Shockers have been recently, the linesmakers have adjusted "the other way." That's a mistake. Take the points. Evansville has just four losses all season. The first came at a neutral site vs. Providence, a top 10 team. The others (besides Wichita State) were on the road against Arkansas and Indiana State. The latter came exactly one week ago, but the Purple Aces quickly bounced back by downing Southern Illinois (in overtime) at Carbondale, 85-78, thanks to shooting 55 percent from the field. Normally, I might be inclined to call for regression with that shooting percentage, but this is a team making 56% of its two-point attempts this season (they're not bad from 3pt range either - 38.2%). Indiana State and Wichita State are the only teams to hold them below 50 percent in conference play. The Purple Aces are 6-2 ATS in January. There is no denying how dominant Wichita State has been in conference play. They're 9-0 SU, winning by an average of 21.1 points per game! However, this is the only opponent that has been able to stay within single digits of them. Consider that in that first meeting, WSU never had a lead of more than nine points. It's not hyperbole to call this the Purple Aces' biggest home game in years as they have lost six straight times to Wichita State, including a humiliating 61-41 loss here last season. I expect the crowd to be rocking Sunday afternoon. Wichita State has been ridiculous on the road the L3 seasons (23-9 ATS), but I think we've reached the proverbial "tipping point" w/ this bunch, who cannot continue their current pace for much longer. 10* Evansville |
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01-31-16 | Maryland v. Ohio State +5 | Top | 66-61 | Push | 0 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
10* Ohio State (1:00 ET): The Buckeyes just pulled an upset in their last game (on the road vs. Illinois), but winning here would be even more impressive as #8 Maryland comes calling to Columbus. OSU catches the Terrapins in prime position for a letdown after they picked up a big win over Iowa (in College Park) earlier this week. This is also a huge revenge spot for Thad Matta's team after they were humbled 100-65 down in Maryland just two weeks ago. However, the shift in scene is vital as the Terps have dropped their L2 road games, to Michigan and Michigan State. Also, they lost here last season by 24. Thanks to holding opponents to just 60.1 PPG, OSU is 11-3 SU here in Columbus and they have what it takes to pull the upset. Take the points. Like last year, the computers and various rating systems are not really in love w/ this Maryland team. Thursday's 74-68 (were 5.5 pt favorites) win over Iowa was their first all season over a ranked opponent. They haven't even had many opportunities to win in that situation, mind you, as prior to the L2 games, they'd played just one ranked team, that being North Carolina. Furthermore, this is just their fourth "true" road game (only win by three at Wisconsin), so the Terrapins still have a lot to prove, IMO. Four of their conference wins, including Iowa, have come by six points or less. They had an issue w/ giving up far too many offensive rebounds against Michigan State and Northwestern and that could be an issue here against an opponent that has dominated the glass in its last two games. Ohio State has covered three in a row since that humiliating loss in College Park. If something could go wrong in that first meeting, it did, as Maryland shot 62.7% compared to just 37.3% for OSU. Clearly, you should expect those percentages to even out here. The Buckeyes have held their last two opponents both under 34 percent shooting and as mentioned before have been quite stingy this season at home. As a result, three of their four Big 10 home games have resulted in double digit wins! Under Matta, they are 8-2 ATS seeking revenge for a loss by 20+ points and this year they are a perfect 6-0 ATS at home when the total is 135 to 139.5. 8* Ohio State |
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01-30-16 | Santa Clara v. Portland -5.5 | Top | 90-84 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 59 m | Show |
8* Portland (10:00 ET): The Pilots really let me down Thursday night w/ an 87-76 outright loss here at home to San Francisco. But, despite that, I see them bouncing back in yet another revenge spot, this time against Santa Clara. These teams first met back on January 2nd and there it was Santa Clara prevailing 84-77 as 1.5-point home dogs. But the Broncos' chances of making it a season sweep seem pretty slim to me as they are just 2-8 SU away from home, including 1-6 in "true" road games. Portland has already lost outright (as favorites) four times in conference play. They couldn't possibly get swept for a second time, losing all four games outright, right? Lay the points. Portland had revenge Thursday vs. USF, but fell behind big early (41-25) and could not recover. That makes it seven losses in eight games since opening up 2-0 SU in WCC play. That skid began w/ a loss at San Francisco, which was then followed by a dismal shooting performance (33.3 percent) at Santa Clara. Offense typically is not an issue for these Pilots, who are averaging 77.9 PPG this year, including an impressive 82.2 at home. That's a far cry from their opponent here as Santa Clara checks in at just 65.5 points per game. Assuming Portland can tighten up its defensive woes, it should theoretically be in good shape here. It's their second straight home game while its the Broncos second road game in three nights. Santa Clara was predictably torched by Gonzaga their last time out, losing 84-67. Though they did cover (as 18-pt dogs), it was the team's third loss in a row overall. All three losses have been by double digits. Like Portland, the Broncos currently find themselves in the lower tier of the conference, so this is a matchup the home team simply must take advantage of. The key in that first meeting was Santa Clara going a season-best 32 of 37 from the free throw line. I don't see anywhere close to a repeat of that here. 8* Portland |
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01-30-16 | Kings +2.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 117-121 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
10* Sacramento (8:05 ET): Recently, the Kings have been favored quite a number of times and that's caught me by surprise. The team is now six games below the Mendoza Line (.500), yet has been deemed the favorite by the oddsmakers five times in the last six games. The first three, they actually won and covered. But the last two, including Thursday night in New Orleans, they lost outright. Back to their customary role of taking points, I feel the Kings are a good value tonight in Memphis against a suddenly surging opponent. Defensively, they may still have their issues (30th in PPG allowed), but the Grizzlies are bound to start cooling off. Take the points. When it comes to actual vs. expected wins, no team in the league has a bigger discrepancy than Memphis. Based on point differential alone, they should be a 20-win team (actual record is 27-20), which would have them on par with the Kings. Thus, I'm not surprised to see the Grizz only being given credit for the home court edge here in what linesmakers see as a essentially a toss-up. I will concede that Memphis' point differential remains a bit skewed from some early season blowouts that they suffered, but still, I don't think they're as good as their overall record. Offensively, they've been playing above their heads the last seven games after previously averaging a Western Conference low 95.9 PPG. While they did destroy Milwaukee in impressive fashion Thursday (I cashed the Under in that game), note that four of their previous six wins had come by three points or fewer. George Karl was not on the bench for the Kings when they went down in New Orleans, 114-105, Thursday night. It appeared they missed him as they fell down 37-19 after just one quarter. Karl is not guaranteed to return tonight, but I would look for DeMarcus Cousins to continue his recent strong play on the offensive end. He went for 26-10-6 in the losing effort vs. the Pelicans and will be the best player on the floor tonight. Memphis doesn't have anyone that can go for 30 points in a half like Ryan Anderson did for New Orleans. The Grizzlies are also just 3-6 SU/ATS this season following a double digit win. 10* Sacramento |
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01-30-16 | Providence v. Georgetown -2 | Top | 73-69 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 59 m | Show |
10* Georgetown (8:00 ET): Providence is a team that despite its #10 ranking doesn't get a ton of respect. Case in point, the Friars are underdogs here to an unranked Georgetown team. Most rating systems also aren't as sold on them. Two of the main ones I follow actually have them outside the top 40! So, they'll probably be a good "go against" team for me that first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, but first we have some regular season opportunities to fade this group. One such opportunity is tonight as G'town is quietly improving. Sure, it was just a one-point win over Creighton (at home) Tuesday. But that made it four wins in the last six games for the Hoyas and the only two losses came to Villanova (who's very good) and at UConn. Lay the points here as this will be called an "upset," but really it's not. After upsetting Villanova on Sunday, Providence somewhat predictably fell in a tough spot vs. Xavier just two days later. Tuesday was not a great shooting night for the Friars, who finished the game at just 31.4% overall, including 7 of 34 from three-point range. Meanwhile, Xavier was able to get shots to fall against their zone. Good fortune, for the most part, has gone Providence's way this season as they are 5-1 SU in games decided by four points or less. They also are one of only four teams nationally yet to drop a "true" road game. They are 5-0 straight up and against the spread in other teams' gyms, but the margins for error have often been razor slim, including a 50-48 win at Creighton earlier this year where they somehow got away w/ shooting only 29.6% from the field. Georgetown recently beat Xavier, on the road, and did so by holding the Musketeers to just 35.3% shooting. They followed that up w/ another sound defensive effort at UConn, but lost close. However, rallying back from 11 down to beat Creighton earlier this week might be a turning point. Note that the Hoyas actually have a better record in Big East play compared to Providence (6-2 vs. 5-3) and are only a game back of Villanova for first place. This is a double revenge spot for the home team as well as LY saw them lose both meetings by three points. 10* Georgetown |
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01-30-16 | Nuggets v. Pacers -8 | Top | 105-109 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
10* Indiana (7:05 ET): Needless to say, January has not gone as well as December did for the Pacers. They are just 6-8 - both straight up and against the spread - this month, but you certainly had to like what you saw Thursday night here at home when they thrashed Atlanta 111-92 as three-point favorites. That marked just the second time in the last eight games that they covered, the other being a 12-point loss at Golden State where they were getting 12.5 (I cashed them there!). Here, they are laying a relatively sizable number, but "it's only Denver" and I think you have to like the Pacers' chances. Not only is it the Nuggets' third road game in four nights, but Indiana has revenge for a loss suffered just two weeks ago. Lay the points. The Pacers wasted what was perhaps their best offensive game of the year January 17th in Denver, losing 129-126 despite shooting 58.5% from the field, including 9 of 19 from three-point range. They gave up a mind-numbing 45 points in the fourth quarter and were outscored 16-7 over the final 3:39. Not to make excuses, but Indiana was a bit short-handed there as only 10 players dressed, which is tough when playing in the altitude. This is a much better team at home (14-7 SU) w/ an average scoring margin of +6.1 PPG and a change in the starting lineup worked big time in the last game. Starting for the first time in his career, Myles Turner went for 20 points against the Hawks. Once again, I do not think offense will be a concern here for the Pacers. Denver is off an outright win at Washington two nights ago, 117-113 (were getting 7.5), one night removed from "backdooring" Boston (trailed by 20+). Despite going 6-1 ATS their last seven games, the Nuggets are giving up an average of 111.7 points per game during that stretch. Off a SU win as a dog, they are just 4-9 ATS this year and I think the offensive numbers are due to drop here considering their YTD scoring average away from home is just 98.7. They've played a ton of close games recently, but at the end of a trip out East, I see them simply running out of gas here. I just think that because of recent form on both sides, the pointspread does not accurately reflect the gap between these two. 10* Indiana |
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01-30-16 | Miami (Fla) v. NC State +5 | Top | 69-85 | Win | 100 | 15 h 60 m | Show |
10* NC State (3:00 ET): Last Saturday, I went AGAINST the Wolfpack, here in Raleigh. They hosted desperate Duke team (that was on a three-game losing streak) and after a surprisingly good start (led 43-36 at halftime), eventually the Blue Devils proved to be too much and it ended up being an 88-78 final w/ Duke covering as chalk. Honestly, having already won two early plays that day (ended up going 5-0!), I somewhat had written off that one as a loss. NC State HC Mark Gottfried has every right to say his team is "better than the record" as despite the 1-7 SU mark in ACC play, almost every game has been close (five losses by 7 pts or less). Miami, who is off a win over Duke on Monday, comes in here and I feel is quite vulnerable. Take the points. Against Duke, NC State definitely played good enough to win. They shot 57 percent in the first half and were up by as many as 10. They just couldn't stop Duke in the second half and defense was again an issue Wednesday vs. Georgia Tech as they gave up 90 points. There, the 1st half performance was not good as they were down 47-33 at the break. Thanks to a career-high 22 points from Abdul-Malik Abu and 36 more from Anthony Barber (ACC's leading scorer), the Wolfpack were able to whittle that lead down to one. But, alas, it was not to be. In my mind, I just can't see them dropping a third game in a row at home. Overall, they are 0-4 SU in ACC home games, twice losing outright as favorites. Miami is probably in position for a letdown after beating Duke. Said PG Angel Rodriguez, "I like playing the powerhouses." In many ways, Monday was the Hurricanes best game so far in conference play. They shot 50.8 percent from the field and turned the ball over only seven times. Interesting is that this team is 0-4 ATS in "true" road games so far, including a pair of outright losses to Virginia and Clemson earlier this month. There's an actually been an issue for them in getting off to slow starts as in conference play, they're averaging just 29.3 PPG in the first half. NC State has just been so close so many times that I feel they are just "due" for an upset here. 10* NC State |
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01-30-16 | West Virginia v. Florida -1.5 | Top | 71-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
8* Florida (12:00 ET): The Gators are one of those teams that still draw respect from the computers despite a relatively pedestrian won-loss record. Michael White's (still feels weird not saying Billy Donovan) crew has three losses this season by three points or fewer. That includes Tuesday's tough one-point loss at similarly under-achieving Vanderbilt where they were held to just 0.86 points per possession. What then can we lean on for support? How about the country's fourth best defense in terms of adjusted efficiency (.898 PPP)? That will come in handy here seeing as they welcome in the team that's #1 in defensive efficiency currently, that being West Virginia, Saturday as a part of the Big 12-SEC Challenge. As tough as the Mountaineers have been, their defensive numbers are more likely to regress and they are down one key player due to suspension. Lay the points. After suffering B2B losses to Oklahoma and Texas, WVU has bounced back w/ consecutive victories over Texas Tech and Kansas State. The latter shot just 35.1% percent against them. As I've written about before, this team cannot possibly maintain it's defensive field goal percentage numbers. Teams are shooting just 26.8% against them from three-point range (Kansas St was 1 for 18!) and that number actually goes DOWN when they are the road team. We've actually already started to see a minor increase in opponent's overall shooting percentage. At the same time, the Mounties are shooting 46.7% themselves on the road. Again, that could prove difficult to sustain. Bob Huggins' team is 0-3 ATS vs. the SEC the L3 seasons. The Gators are actually holding their opponents to a lower overall shooting percentage (38.6%!) than WVU. Being favored here, against a Top 10 opponent, is not problematic seeing as UF is 9-1 SU in Gainesville this year and 11-2 SU/8-4 ATS as chalk. The key suspension for WVU that I referenced earlier is forward Jonathan Holton, who had been averaging a double-double (12.3 points, 10.3 rebounds) the L3 games. Provided Florida can regain the shooting touch they lost vs. Vandy (had previously made 9+ 3-pt FGs in four straight games) & takes care of the basketball, this will be an upset that isn't really an upset. 8* Florida |
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01-29-16 | Green Bay v. Wisc-Milwaukee -4.5 | Top | 94-95 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
10* WI-Milwaukee (8:00 ET): This in-state, Horizon League rivalry is renewed for the 54th time Friday night and crazy as this may seem, Milwaukee has yet to cover a single home game this season (0-6 ATS). The Panthers check in off an outright loss, as 3.5-point favorites, to Oakland earlier in the week. They lost the game 82-79 as Oakland sharpshooter Max Hooper made seven three-pointers. The program has had to deal w/ some attrition lately as second leading scorer Akeem Springs (14.3 PPG) is injured and Justin Jordan (MJ's nephew) transferred. Despite that, I like the matchup tonight vs. Green Bay, who is just atrocious defensively. Tonight also marks a double revenge spot for the Panthers. Lay the points. Green Bay is one of the most unique teams in the entire country. What I mean by the term "unique" is that they are incredible offensively, yet horrendous defensively. All program records on the offensive end are set to be smashed in this, the first year under HC Linc Darner. The Phoenix average 86.2 points per game, second most in the nation, due in large part to their ability to get to the free throw line (30.4 attempts per game!). But being on the road here likely limits just how much they get to the charity stripe and then there's the matter of the defense, which has allowed 100+ points FIVE times this season, including each of the last two games! They are allowing 81.3 PPG for the season. After giving up 111 in regulation to Oakland on Saturday, Green Bay gave up 108 in an overtime win vs. Detroit (at home) on Monday. Note that snapped a four-game ATS losing streak in Horizon League play for the Phoenix. Did I mention that Milwaukee already averages 85.6 PPG here at home? This game marks a dramatic departure from the previous five meetings, all of which have seen Green Bay favored, four times by double digits in fact. The Phoenix shot better than 55 percent from the floor in BOTH meetings last year, something I do not see happening here, even w/ the prolific offense. I'm just not sure they can continue competing with a defense this bad. 10* WI-Milwaukee |
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01-29-16 | Magic +8.5 v. Celtics | Top | 94-113 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:35 ET): Both the Magic & Celtics are coming off somewhat of a "bad beat" in their previous games. Orlando actually led Milwaukee (on the road) by as many as 16 in the first half before wilting late and failing to even cover the 5.5-pt spread (lost 107-100). Meanwhile, Boston may have gotten the SU win their last time out, but the result at the betting window was just as unfortunate as Orlando's w/ them seeing a 20-point fourth quarter lead whittled down to a final 111-103 margin, thereby denying them the cover against Denver as 8.5-point chalk. Sadly, I was on the wrong end of both of those decisions. But, in a battle of two teams I just backed, I'm going to take the points here as the Magic are more "due" to cover. Remember when Orlando was the top ATS team in the league? Through their first 30 games, they stood at 21-9 against the spread (70 percent). Since that time, however, things have not gone so well for Scott Skiles' team. They've covered just 2 of their last 13 games and they've won only one time (over Brooklyn) in 2016. They've lost seven in a row coming into tonight, the last three all coming in painful fashion. I already mentioned the blown lead vs. Milwaukee Tuesday night, but before that they dropped B2B overtime games to Charlotte and Memphis. Despite all the recent misfortune, I still feel that this is a competitive team. Note that five of their last seven losses have been by seven points or less. They have actually held a double-digit lead in three of the last four games, only to lose every time. Boston is a team I've spoken of in glowing terms in past analysis, but they are due to cool off a bit offensively after topping 100 pts in each of their last 10 games. Note that they have not won five games in a row, something they are going for here, at any point this season. Defense has been a key during the win streak, but can they really hold a fifth straight opponent under 43 percent shooting? I'm willing to bet the answer is 'no.' Note that in the previous four games, the Celtics were allowing an average of 113.3 PPG. As two-point home dogs, the Magic destroyed them early this season, 110-91 at home. This shapes up as close game where the value is on the dog. 10* Orlando |
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01-28-16 | Pepperdine v. San Diego +7.5 | Top | 75-65 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
8* San Diego (10:30 ET): We are both "buying low" and "selling high" in this conference matchup, which sees USD going for revenge against visiting Pepperdine. I'm not sure who the Torerors angered at the WCC schedule makers office, but so far they have played just six home games. They had to play each of the last four on the road and that went about as well as expected w/ them dropping the last three after an upset of Portland. However, after getting blown out at both Gonzaga and Pepperdine, things were a lot closer Saturday at Loyola Marymount where they lost by only four (as six-point dogs). Meanwhile, this is a good spot to fade Pepperdine, who followed up their blowout of the Torerors w/ an upset of BYU over the weekend. Take the points. Pepperdine was an 11.5-point home favorite when they beat up on USD, 76-58, exactly one week ago. Now, they are being asked to lay a number that's somewhat close to that on the road. Clearly, the linesmakers had to adjust because of the final score of last week's meeting, but don't expect the Waves to come in and shoot 52.3% from the floor like they did at home. Interestingly, they are just 4-8 against the spread when favored this season and just 4-7 SU away from home (includes neutral site games). This marks the fourth time that Pepperdine has been favored out on the conference road and in two of the previous three instances, they have lost the game outright (at Portland and Santa Clara). It was an all-around disastrous shooting effort for San Diego last Thursday as they finished the game at just 37.9 percent, including 5 for 19 from three-point range. They also were just 9 for 15 from free throw line. Scoring has been a bit of a concern this year for the Torerors, but defense has not, at least here at home where they are limiting foes to just 61.8 PPG. If they can keep Pepperdine right around that number, then they should be in excellent shape tonight. Again, this team just hasn't gotten to play many home games this season. Saturday at LMU, the Torerors blew a nine-point lead w/ just over five minutes to go. This is their chance to make up for that and exact some revenge in the process. 8* San Diego |
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01-28-16 | San Francisco v. Portland -5 | Top | 87-76 | Loss | -106 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
10* Portland (10:00 ET): We've reached the point in several of these conferences where revenge will start to become a factor. Yes, the revenge angle can be overplayed. But here, I think we have an excellent opportunity to cash in on a team whose current status clearly reads "buy low." Portland is coming off B2B road losses, first to Pacific, then to St. Mary's, and that has left the Pilots at just 9-13 SU for the year. They've now dropped six of their last seven and that slide started w/ a 107-95 loss at San Francisco (no overtime!), a game where they were actually favored by two. Now having to lay just a few points more at home, where Portland is 7-3 SU and much better defensively, seems like a solid value to me. That first meeting between these two was rather insane as Portland actually scored 62 points in the first half and led by 15 w/ just under 13 minutes to play. From there though, USF caught fire, outscoring the Pilots 41-14 the rest of the way. The fact that Portland ended up losing by 12 is very misleading in the sense that they missed their final eight three-point attempts and five of those had a chance to tie the game. It is highly unlikely here that the Dons will come in and shoot 58.3 percent from the floor like they did at home on New Year's Eve. They also got to the free throw line 40 times the first go around. Looking back, perhaps Portland got excited about their New Year's plans just a little bit too early. The Pilots are a solid 9-2 ATS this season when taking on teams w/ a winning record and San Francisco is now 10-9 SU following an upset of Santa Clara (on the road) exactly one week ago. I really can't see the Dons making it B2B road wins, especially w/ them allowing 76.6 points per game for the season. Portland certainly has had little issue scoring this year (82.0 PPG at home!), so after a couple of "off-nights", I look for them to take advantage here of a USF team that has twice given up 100+ points. Looking at the Dons' last seven games, road wins over San Diego and Santa Clara were the exceptions defensively as in the other five, they allowed 87+ pts. Portland ran into hot-shooting St. Mary's their last time out (62.5 FG%!), something they won't have to worry about here. 10* Portland |
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01-28-16 | Michigan State v. Northwestern +6.5 | Top | 76-45 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 29 m | Show |
10* Northwestern (9:00 ET): Here's yet another opportunity to exploit the rankings. As I've been writing about a lot lately, home dogs, when unranked, have fared quite well for themselves this year when welcoming in a ranked foe. Last night, I had Arkansas, who handed Texas A&M its first loss in some time. Here, we have a Northwestern team that was once 13-1 straight up, but Big 10 play has been unkind, leaving them 15-6 currently. The Wildcats are off their worst loss of the season (in terms of margin), 89-57 at Indiana, so there's now some value here. Michigan State treated me well Saturday (Game of the Week WINNER vs. Maryland), but this shapes up as a letdown spot for them after such a big win. Take the points. Remember that Sparty had lost three in a row itself before turning back Maryland Saturday night. Granted, two of the losses were by a single point and that played into me taking them in that spot. But it was by no means easy for Tom Izzo's team against the Terps as it was still only a three-point game w/ only 23 seconds remaining. Six made free throws made the final margin seem a little more comfortable than it actually was as MSU shot a season-worst 36.1 percent from the floor. Playing on the road here, I wouldn't look for them to have a near 2:1 advantage in FT attempts, which is what they enjoyed vs. Maryland. Meanwhile, N'western is likely due for some offensive improvement after being held under 60 pts in B2B games. One of those saw them lose to Maryland in overtime, on the road, a game where they arguably looked like the better team. Here in Evanston, they are outscoring opponents by almost 14 PPG thanks to holding them to 38.7% overall shooting. At the same time, the Wildcats' own shooting numbers (46.9% at home) look pretty good. Success against Izzo has been virtually non-existent (3-29 SU L32), but for a program that infamously has NEVER made the NCAA Tournament, a win here could go a long way in re-establishing their standing w/ the committee after the fast start. Look for leading scorer Bryant McIntosh to have a big bounce back game here. 10* Northwestern |
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01-27-16 | Mavs +16 v. Warriors | Top | 107-127 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
10* Dallas (10:35 ET): The Mavs are in the unusual position of going from 7.5-pt road favorites one game to huge double digit dogs the next, which is quite the shift and of course has everything to do with the respective opponents. Last night, it was the Lakers and Dallas surprisingly escaped LA only a 92-90 winner. That coupled w/ the fact that this is a revenge spot for Golden State has this line approaching the point of madness and in my estimation the value is on the dog here. Throw in the fact that the Warriors just clobbered the Spurs by 30 and the public's fascination with the defending NBA Champs figures to be back at pre-New Year's levels. Take the points as the Mavs won't be this big of an underdog the rest of the season. When these teams last met, it was a much different set of circumstances. Golden State still only had one loss, but was going to be w/o MVP Steph Curry, so I had no hesitation at all about taking the 3.5 points with Dallas. I ended up not even needing them as the Mavs rolled to a 114-91 win and cover, which until a January 16th loss at Detroit stood as the Warriors' only double digit loss of the season. This go around, Golden State comes in on fire having just annihilated Cleveland, Chicago, Indiana and San Antonio by a combined 107 points! The rematch is also at home where they have yet to lose. Of course, Curry is back too and he just went for 37 points in 28 minutes against the Spurs. But all this has done is serve to drive up the line, which at this point is simply far too high. I realize that this is the second game of a back to back for the Mavericks, who are likely to be w/o center Zaza Pachulia and guard Devin Harris. But, despite the close call last night, the team should be relatively fresh. No player was on the court for more than 34 minutes against the Lakers, a game where the team simply was not at its best offensively. Maybe they won't be here either, but then again they don't have to be given how generous the oddsmakers are being. The Mavs are 7-4 SU and ATS this season when playing in the second game of a back to back. 10* Dallas |
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01-27-16 | Loyola-Chicago v. Wichita State -20 | Top | 54-80 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
8* Loyola Chicago (9:00 ET): Was it really just last month that I was writing about what a desperate team Wichita State was? At that time, I was making a play ON the Shockers as they were set to take on Utah. They won the game, 67-50 as 3.5-pt favorites, but followed that up w/ an 80-76 (overtime) loss at Seton Hall which left them at just 5-5 SU for the season. Of course, you could "blame" the absence of Fred VanVleet (injury) for a poor 2-4 start (two losses by four pts or less). However, VanVleet is back and so too are the Shockers, who have ripped through an admittedly weaker than usual Missouri Valley Conference to the tune of eight straight wins by an average margin of 20.5 points per game. This drastic turn of events has of course taken them from being undervalued to now potentially overvalued, thus my next move with WSU is to go against them as they host an opponent that is more formidable than you think. Loyola (CHI) is a team whose record does not match its overall level of performance. The Ramblers are basically dead even in points scored vs. allowed this year, but are just 9-11 straight up as they've been on the wrong end of far too many close calls. Consider that prior to pulling off a 51-41 upset at Northern Iowa on January 16th, their previous three games - all losses - were decided by a total of five points. But starting w/ that upset of UNI, we've begun to see a much deserved turnaround here. I took the Ramblers getting a nice number at Evansville last Tuesday, and they stayed within it, then it was a win at home against Drake over the weekend. Wichita State has won 27 straight times when favored by 12.5 or more (15-10-2 ATS), but this is going to be a challenge laying this much weight. Not only are they dealing w/ an underrated opponent, but don't discount the potential for a lookahead to a return date this weekend w/ Evansville, who gave the Shockers all they could handle in Wichita earlier this month. Because the Shockers just covered a 30.5-pt spread over the weekend against an awful Bradley team, the linesmakers had no choice to set the bar really high for this one as well, but it's an inflated number worth taking advantage of. 8* Loyola (Chicago) |
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01-27-16 | Hornets v. Jazz -5.5 | Top | 73-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
10* Utah (9:05 ET): I'm going to disagree w/ my own power ratings, which have Charlotte as the slightly better team here, and instead lay the points. My reasoning has to do with each team's previous result. Charlotte won another overtime game Monday (now 5-0 SU in OT games this season), this one a double overtime affair at Sacramento where they had to overcome an early 15-point deficit and 56 pts from Boogie Cousins. Keep in mind that the Hornets actually checked in as eight-point dogs for that contest. Utah, meanwhile, has not enjoyed the same kind of good fortune Charlotte has and lost a close one (as three-point favorites) here at home to Detroit its last time out. I believe the Jazz are better than their record shows, so I'll lay the number even though it's slightly inflated. Despite the win at Sacramento, the Hornets are still only 6-15 SU on the road and are allowing 105.1 PPG. They've won three straight - all as underdogs - but both road wins came in OT and saw them rally back after falling behind by double digits. They in fact have three overtime wins in the last five games. I already touched on the game w/ Sacramento (who I was fortunate enough to play against last night), but should also mention that the Hornets were able to take advantage of the Kings' awful defense and connect on a franchise-record 20 made three-pointers. Here, they'll be running into a far stingier group as the Jazz allow just 97.4 PPG, fifth fewest in the league. Charlotte also recently won a game at Orlando where they overcame a 19-point deficit. Their other OT win over the L5 games came against this Utah team back on January 18th, 124-119 as 3.5-pt chalk. That was another 2OT game, one that saw Kemba Walker score 52 points, a feat that's highly unlikely to be repeated here. Utah would love to have some of the Hornets' recent good fortune as they're just 3-6 straight up in their last nine games decided by five points or less. That includes a 95-92 loss at home to Detroit on Monday, which came on the heels of a date with Washington being postponed due to weather. The Jazz shot only 40% in Monday's loss (13-pt first quarter), but thankfully they are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season when coming off a SU loss as a favorite. Revenge will be theirs. 10* Utah |
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01-27-16 | Tulsa v. Houston +1 | Top | 66-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
10* Houston (8:00 ET): The Cougars are off a very embarrassing loss here as they were 16-point favorites at home against a 3-17 South Florida team (that was down to just SEVEN players) Saturday, but fell 71-62. As head-scratching a result as that may seem to be, it's easy to finger the reason, which was leading scorer Rob Gray, Jr. (who didn't start, more on that in a bit) finishing the game w/ only ONE point on an 0 for 6 shooting night. Also, despite being at home, the Cougars somehow attempted less free throws than USF made! It's time for Kelvin Sampson (remember him?) to put down the phone because its desperation time w/ his team having lost four straight. Fortunately, I think UH is a great value tonight at home vs. Tulsa. It was not a good week for Gray, who not only was a healthy scratch in team's 77-73 loss at SMU last Tuesday, but then didn't start and scored just the one point vs. USF. HC Sampson has not been clear on why Gray was punished, but right, wrong or otherwise, his absence definitely hurt his team. Consider that Gray doesn't just lead his own team in scoring, he leads the entire American Conference at 16.6 PPG! There's been no indication that there will be any more discipline moving forward, so I'm expecting Gray to start tonight. In addition to his not starting, and the free throw discrepancy, I can also chalk up the Cougars' loss to USF as a bit of a letdown spot following the near upset of SMU. Also remember that this team was a perfect 10-0 SU at home (now 10-2) before losing to UConn ten days ago. If trying to snap a four-game losing streak wasn't enough motivation for Sampson's team, tonight is also a triple revenge spot for them. Tulsa was a perfect 3 for 3 against Houston last season, including a 59-51 win in the conference tournament. The Golden Hurricane blow in on a five-game SU/ATS win streak, but they've essentially been beating up on the bottom of the league, which is quite weak. While Houston's offensive numbers are set to improve, Tulsa is just as likely to regress defensively after allowing only 58 PPG (on 38.0% shooting) during the current win streak, setting up a "perfect storm" of sorts for the home team. 10* Houston |
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01-27-16 | Nuggets v. Celtics -8.5 | Top | 103-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:35 ET): On the road, I see Denver having little chance of keeping pace in this one. We know that the Celtics are a better team than their record shows as their +3.9 per game point differential is third best in the East and sixth best in the entire league. They've begun to "put it together" lately w/ three straight wins and covers to improve to a strong 6-2 SU/ATS their last eight. Many of their wins this season have come in blowout fashion (15 by double digits!) and the last two have been no different as they clobbered Philadelphia and Washington on the road by a combined 35-point margin. Here they face a Denver team that is off a 14-point home loss to Atlanta and only 3-15 SU its last 18 visits to Beantown. Lay the points. Due to weather, Boston's game with Philadelphia was pushed back to Sunday and not surprisingly they still handled the woeful 76ers, winning 112-92 as eight-point road chalk. Forced into an unscheduled back to back, Brad Stevens' team showed no ill-effects the following night in D.C. as they dismantled the Wizards, 116-91 as 2.5-point dogs. Scoring has been on the rise for the Celtics, who have averaged 113.7 points per game their last seven contests. That works out great now that they're facing the defensively inept Nuggets, who over their last five games have allowed an average of 111.6 points. I'm a little shocked that Boston is only 12-10 SU at home, but this is a team w/ many close losses on its resume, so that record is set to improve. Meanwhile, I struggle to find any evidence to support a positive outlook for Denver moving forward. They had actually covered six of seven before falling 119-105 at home to Atlanta on Monday, and what was remarkable is that six of those seven games were decided by three points or less (the other by just six). I'd say it's "high time" for the Nuggets to get blown out, something that really hasn't happened since a pair of double digits losses (to San Antonio and OKC) right after X-Mas. Consider they lost by 14 at home (trailed by as many as 22) last time out despite going 33 of 37 from the free throw line. It's unlikely that the officials will be "so kind" to them again here. 8* Boston |
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01-27-16 | Texas A&M v. Arkansas +3.5 | Top | 71-74 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
10* Arkansas (7:00 ET): Here we are again with yet another opportunity to unload on a team taking points at home vs. a ranked opponent. The Top 25 does a great disservice to the public, who simply sees a number next to one team and automatically assumes they are significantly better. In taking advantage of that misconception multiple times recently, I've talked about how the difference between the 15th and 40th best team in the country is not all that significant, particularly after factoring in home court advantage. That doesn't necessarily apply here, however, as instead we're dealing with a #5 ranked Texas A&M squad that has probably reached its apex. They are ripe to be picked off here by a desperate Arkansas team looking to snap a three-game losing skid. Take the points. The Razorbacks are now only 9-10 straight up for the year, but two of their three straight losses have been by a combined five points and both were on the road. The last one (76-73 at Georgia) came in overtime and saw the Hogs shoot just 39.3% from the field. That's well below their season average of 46.4 percent and as you like to see w/ any underdog, this one shoots well from three-point range (47% at home!). Here in Fayetteville, the team still averages 88.3 PPG even after a loss to rapidly improving Kentucky last week. That loss was just the fifth for Arkansas in its last 30 SEC home games. Texas A&M jumped five spots in the polls this week as several teams ahead of them lost. Give credit where it's due, the Aggies are still perfect in SEC play and have won 10 in a row overall. But Arkansas is more likely to be the motivated side in this one, not just because they're at home and playing a Top 5 opponent, but also due to the fact that this is a revenge spot for an ugly 23-point loss in College Station earlier this month. On the road, things have been much tighter for A&M, however. In particular, wins at Mississippi State and Tennessee came by a total of just five points. Defense bailed them out Saturday vs. Missouri as center Tyler Davis sat out. I don't think they can count on that kind of performance being enough here though and a big Top 15 showdown vs. Iowa State this weekend serves as a lookahead. 10* Arkansas |
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01-26-16 | Kings v. Blazers -4 | Top | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
10* Portland (10:05 ET): Predictably, the line has jumped here as Sacramento is off a tough, 2OT loss to Charlotte last night at home. I had anticipate the line doing that, so please note this play remains valid as the Blazers should win big here. It's tough to imagine the Kings having much left in the tank after Boogie Cousins gave them 56 points in the 129-128 loss Monday that saw them blow all of a 15-point first quarter advantage by midway through the third quarter. Making matters all the more difficult for tonight is that Rudy Gay will have to sit out due to a scratched cornea. Short-handed and likely gassed, I just don't see any way the defensively deficient Kings can keep pace here. Lay the number. Yes, defense continues to be an issue for Sacramento as they are giving up 107.7 points per game (most in the league) overall and 108.8 PPG on the road. There was some improvement during a 5-0 SU/ATS run heading into last night, but then they allowed the Hornets to connect on 20 three-pointers and produce a 42-point quarter! In the second of back to backs this season, the team is just 2-9 straight up and allowing 110 points per game. In the five times they've had to go from home to away w/o rest (1-4 SU/2-3 ATS), they're allowing 115 PPG. Simply put, the linesmakers just aren't being kind enough to them considering they face a Portland team that averages 104.8 PPG here at home. Furthermore, the Blazers are well rested (last played Saturday) and are 6-1 SU/ATS this season when playing with exactly two days off. In a result that should not surprise you, they whipped the Lakers their last time out, 121-103 as 11.5-poiunt home favorites. It was the Blazers fifth win in the last seven games (did lose to Philadelphia!). This is now a great opportunity for them to overtake the Kings for the coveted 8th spot in the Western Conference. I realize there's still a lot of basketball to be played this regular season, but listen to Portland PG Damian Lillard, "They're in the spot that we want to be in. It's a huge game, tomorrow doesn't decide anything but it's another great opportunity for us on our home court and we're going to go out there and play like it." The Blazers have already beaten the Kings once this year, in Sacramento. 10* Portland |
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01-26-16 | Magic +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 100-107 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
8* Orlando (8:05 ET): There was a time this season when the Magic were leading the league in the ATS standings, but a disastrous start to 2016 has changed things dramatically. They have still shown a profit at the betting window for the season, mind you, but are just 2-9 ATS in the New Year (1-8 SU w/ the one win coming over Brooklyn). They've lost six in a row straight up, the last two both painfully coming in overtime. Friday saw them blow a 15-point fourth quarter lead, at home, against Charlotte. Then last night saw them get held to only 35 points in the second half and overtime at Memphis (scored 65 pts before halftime!). Despite the fact they had to play overtime and lost, I still don't see why they should be getting this many points tonight in Milwaukee. This is yet another classic case of an unrested visiting team being undervalued. Jason Kidd returns to the Bucks bench tonight, but considering the way the team performed in his absence, I'm not sure this is all too positive of a development. In 18 games w/o their head coach, Milwaukee went a respectable 8-10 straight up. Prior to his hip replacement surgery, the team stood at just 11-17 SU overall. They have lost two straight, the last one coming in the final stop of a four-game road trip, 116-99 at New Orleans. Playing in the second of a back to back, things really fell apart in the second half as the Bucks went from ahead to down 17 in just over 14 minutes of gametime. Defense was again a concern as they allowed the Pelicans to score 30+ points in each of the final three quarters. This team ranks 26th in the league in terms of defensive efficiency. Orlando crushed Milwaukee in the only prior matchup this year, winning 114-90 as 3.5-point home favorites back in November. Clearly, it's been a dramatic shift in the market since then, but should there have been? The Bucks are still a bad team and I don't know that the home court edge they have for this one is going to be enough to offset the discrepancy in defensive numbers. The Magic hold foes to just 99.4 points per game and my guess is this line would look a lot different had they held on to beat either Charlotte or Memphis. Take the points. 8* Orlando |
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01-26-16 | Indiana v. Wisconsin +2 | Top | 79-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
8* Wisconsin (7:00 ET): Looking at the results from this year, this past weekend in particular, unranked home dogs hosting a ranked opponent have done unbelievably well. I had a couple on Saturday, Tennessee and California, both of whom pulled outright upsets at the expense of South Carolina and Arizona respectively. Then on Sunday, I had Temple over SMU. The Owls weren't alone that day as we also saw Oregon State down USC and Virginia Tech cover against North Carolina. Tonight sees this opportunity present itself again for us as Wisconsin hosts #19 Indiana. With the Hoosiers riding a 12-game win streak, but having lost 13 straight times in Madison, something will have to give here. I think I've made it clear which way I'm going. Take the points. Indiana has done a fine job of avoiding the Big 10 heavyweights so far as they have not played a single game against Iowa, Michigan State, Maryland or Purdue. They do own a win over tonight's opponent, but that was by just a single point in Bloomington. Given the final score there (Hoosiers were favored by 7.5), I'm surprised that no real adjustment has been made by the oddsmakers here. Granted, IU has produced some really impressive margins of victory lately w/ three of their last four wins coming by at least 25 points. But those wins all came at home and against the bottom of the league. This is a team that has shot the ball remarkably well this season (52.3 FG%!), the last two games in particular. It will be difficult to maintain that. Wisconsin is off a good week themselves, one that saw them upset Michigan State, then go to Penn State and win 66-60 as 2.5-pt chalk. Something to keep in mind is that the Badgers did hold Indiana to just 59 points, on the road, earlier this season. A similar effort tonight should lead to the same result at the betting window. This was a team due for a turnaround post Bo Ryan (legendary coach retired mid-season) as they have suffered seven losses by six points or fewer, five of them by a combined nine points. Eight of their 13 straight home wins over Indiana have come by double digits. It used to be unheard of to find the Badgers catching points at the Kohl Center, but shockingly this will be the fourth time it's happened so far in conference play this year! The previous three saw one outright upset (Michigan St), one push (Maryland) and an ATS loss by a single point (Purdue). 8* Wisconsin |
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01-26-16 | Ball State v. Buffalo -3.5 | Top | 64-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (7:00 ET): Visiting Ball State comes in off one of the more controversial victories of the season, an 88-87 double overtime decision at Eastern Michigan where MAC officials essentially "gifted" them the game thanks to not one, but two no-calls that were pretty flagrant (note: two of the officials from that game have been suspended). Not only was BSU not whistled for a foul (when it appeared that they were intentionally trying to commit one), but after a steal, a player clearly traveled before dishing the ball for the GW 3-pointer. Comeuppance for the Cardinals will come tonight, however, in the form of a trip to Buffalo, who is looking to bounce back from an ugly result its last time out. Lay the short number. Buffalo is back home here after being taken to the woodshed Saturday in Kalamazoo by Western Michigan. The final score there was 91-71 in what was Buffalo's fourth time playing on the road in the last five games. That game was essentially "over before it started" w/ WMU racing out to a 17-2 lead and they would go on to shoot 51 percent from the field, including 13 of 21 from three-point range. You won't find too many teams that have played only eight of 19 games at home this season, but Buffalo is in that boat. They're back on the road for two more, starting Saturday with a visit to Toledo. So the Bulls need to regroup tonight and thankfully the numbers back them up as they are averaging 83.6 points per game here for the season. They've also won all five games that they've been favored in this year, going 3-1 ATS. Ball State is 4-2 straight up to start conference play. That's pretty shocking considering the previous two seasons saw them go just 4-34 SU vs. the rest of the MAC. Also, during that same time, they were 0-31 SU on the road, regardless if it was a conference game or not! This year has brought improvement in Muncie, but the Cardinals are still only 9-48 SU their L57 tries as an underdog and the likelihood of them pulling off B2B road wins is quite small from where I sit. This is a team that has five wins by three points or less this year, one of them against Alabama A&M and another over Miami (OH). Their last two wins have been by a combined three points. They have not played a single team from a "Power Conference" all year. Meanwhile, Buffalo had won two straight by double digits before taking that bad loss at Western Michigan. They've also beaten Ball State five of the last six times they've played. 10* Buffalo |
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01-25-16 | Kansas +2 v. Iowa State | Top | 72-85 | Loss | -106 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
8* Kansas (9:00 ET): All of a sudden, everyone seems back on the Iowa State bandwagon again. The Cyclones have won three straight, one of them against then #1 Oklahoma exactly one week ago here in Ames. They followed that up by going to TCU and picking up a tough road win as nine-point favorites, 73-60. But despite an amazing 25-4 ATS record when laying three or less at home, I do not see ISU beating its second top three opponent in less than a week's time. Kansas responded from a bad loss to Oklahoma State on Tuesday by rallying back to beat Texas in Lawrence on Saturday. Bill Self's team has dropped B2B road games, but I think they're a steal here as the underdog. Take the points. Kansas has failed to cover four in a row. But this will be the first time all season that they have been an underdog. Even after factoring in the home court advantage for ISU, I do not believe they deserve to be favored here. It was just two weeks ago that everyone was jumping off the Cyclones' bandwagon as they'd lost three of four (admittedly all by five points or less). They've yet to be beaten badly in a game this year, but I'm going to go out on a limb here and call for their biggest margin of defeat all season. Defensively, they have their issues, like when they gave up 94 points in B2B losses to Baylor and Texas earlier this year. When down 35-30 at the half to Texas on Saturday, one could have made the case than Kansas really hadn't played all that well going on 3.5 games at that point. But things sure changed in the second half vs. the Longhorns, whom they outscored 46-32 and I expect there to be a bit of a carryover effect here. KU really hasn't shot the ball well over its last six games, but I expect that to change here. Meanwhile, I don't see Iowa State duplicating its 54% percent shooting from the last game. It's not often that I'll go with the road team in College Hoops, but when a better team is getting points, I'll make an exception. 8* Kansas |
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01-24-16 | Thunder v. Nets +13.5 | Top | 106-116 | Win | 100 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (3:30 ET): Certainly, the Nets are not an "attractive" buy right now, but getting this many points, at home, they are a good value. Any time you have a team that's dropped 10 of 11 games - straight up and against the spread, mind you - like they have, it's a tough sell. But the good news is that the last time we saw them on a five-game losing streak, they won outright, here at home, against the Knicks. Usually, when a team makes a mid-season coaching change, you see SOME sort of improvement over the short-term. That clearly hasn't happened with this group and because of that we are now able to grab what is a TON of points here at home. Oklahoma City is just 5-13 ATS on the road this year. Take the points. Six days ago, the Nets were in Toronto and played the red-hot Raptors rather tough - for three quarters. Up by three, things then fell apart over the final 12 minutes (outscored 31-16) and for many that final score was no better than a push. Returning home, things have only continued to get worse for Brooklyn. They were the wrong team at the wrong time Wednesday vs. Cleveland (who was coming off a humiliating loss to Golden State) and then Friday's game vs. Utah saw a crowd far below capacity due to the weather (only about 5,000 in attendance). The Nets played like they wanted to go home after halftime, getting outscored 37-17 in the third quarter. As bad as things have been here, I just have to imagine that the team is due to play well, at least once. Oklahoma City ended up having to hold on after blowing a 17-point lead Friday night in Dallas. It was their seventh straight win. Yet, outside of Durant and Westbrook, this isn't a great team and they remain one of the worst bets in the league at 18-26-1 ATS overall. Steven Adams (sprained right elbow) won't play here. Consider that back in November, the Thunder failed to cover as 12.5-point home favorites against the Nets. Now, here in Brooklyn, they're being asked to lay more points. Hopefully, the weather cooperates and we get this game in because I think the home side is a great value plus the points. 10* Brooklyn |
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01-24-16 | SMU v. Temple +7 | Top | 80-89 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
8* Temple (12:00 ET): This game was supposed to be played yesterday, but because of the terrible weather on the East Coast, got pushed back a day. Sounds to me like the perfect time to play against still-unbeaten SMU, who is on the road and due to drop a game. The fact that the Mustangs are the nation's lone remaining unbeaten is somewhat ironic considering they are ineligible for the NCAA Tournament due to academic sanctions. It's also somewhat miraculous due to the fact the team is down to seven scholarship players after Keith Frazier, Jr (who was at the heart of the academic scandal) opted to transfer. The Ponies were very lucky to escape with their unblemished record intact Tuesday vs. Houston after trailing much of the way (did not cover). Take the points here. Temple has been quite formidable as an underdog all season, going 6-2 ATS in that role with three outright upsets. Though as a favorite of 10 pts, they had little issue w/ cross-town rival LaSalle on Wednesday, winning 62-49. That marked the Owls' fifth consecutive cover. Three of the previous four had come as underdogs, including outright wins over UConn and Cincinnati. They've actually beaten the Bearcats outright twice. The team's only bad game in conference play came against Houston, ironically enough, but other than that they are 5-0 ATS vs. the rest of the American. This will be their third straight game in Philly, so they clearly should be less affected by the postponement than their visitors from Texas. SMU trailed Houston for nearly the entirety of the first half on Tuesday and led for only eight minutes of game time. Keep in mind that was a home game. This will be the Mustangs third time on the road in the last four games and that can really catch up w/ a team, especially one like this that's so short-handed. This will be a triple revenge spot for Temple, who lost all three meetings with SMU last year due in large part to woeful three-point shooting. They finished the three games just 18 of 71 from behind the arc. They haven't been much better from distance this year, but when they hosted SMU last year, it still was only a five-point loss. SMU clearly should be on upset alert here. 8* Temple |
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01-23-16 | Bulls +11 v. Cavs | Top | 96-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
10* Chicago (8:35 ET): There's going to be a lot of pressure on Cleveland here after the decision to fire David Blatt and I just think double digits is too much to lay, even if I do think Chicago is a tad bit overrated. The Bulls lost last night, 110-101 in Boston, but I say no shame there as the Celtics are a pretty good team. Obviously, the Cavs are the class of the Eastern Conference, but still they're outscoring teams by less than six points per game this season and this looks like a clear overlay. LeBron and company are just 15-20 ATS when favored and lost to the Bulls (as four-point underdogs) on Opening Night. Having dropped six of eight overall (1-7 ATS), Chicago will be just as desperate tonight. Take the points. The humiliating 34-point home loss to Golden State earlier this year (I took the Warriors!) likely "sealed" Blatt's fate to the point that not even B2B double digit wins over Brooklyn and the Clippers could save him. New HC Tyronn Lue has never served in this capacity before and I'm interested to see how he performs. This is a high-pressure situation as no team in league history has ever made a coaching change with a record this good. Consider that going back to LY's Eastern Conference Semifinal, four of the last five meetings between Cleveland and Chicago have been decided by five points or less. Chicago was also recently crushed by Golden State at home (again, I was on the Warriors), losing by 31. They couldn't "hit water from a boat" in that one, going a horrific 1 for 20 from three-point range. They followed that up by going 3 for 13 from behind the arc against Boston last night and turning the ball over 20 times. The good news here is that I just don't think they are capable of playing any worse. Also, there's been a "Derrick Rose sighting" as the former league MVP has averaged 25.3 points the L3 games. Defense has been an issue of late, but I expect the Bulls to keep this one closer than expected as the Cavs likely come out tight. 10* Chicago |
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01-23-16 | Arizona v. California +4 | Top | 73-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
10* California (8:30 ET): Though they just snapped a three-game losing streak w/ a 75-70 win over Arizona State Thursday, this remains a critical game for Cal, who is widely considered to be a bubble team at this point of the season. Something to consider though is that all three losses they suffered came on the road. They're 12-0 SU here in Berkeley, so despite not having senior guard Tyrone Wallace, I like the Bears chances here against #12 Arizona, who finds itself playing on the road for the second time in three days. That's the dreaded situation in this conference and note that all three of 'Zona's losses this year have come away from Tucson. Yes, the Wildcats have won the L4 meetings by double digits, but tonight will be Cal's night. Take the points. Remember that Arizona is also w/o one of its top scorers, Allonzo Trier, a freshman that had been averaging 19.3 PPG in Pac 12 play before breaking his hand in the loss to USC. That didn't deter me from backing this team against what I felt was an overrated Washington squad and they rewarded me by winning by 32. They've followed that up w/ two more double digit wins, but you have to imagine they'll start to feel the loss of Trier. This spot is almost indentical to the USC game as it's a second of two road games in three nights and they're a short road favorite. It is highly unlikely that they will again benefit from an opponent shooting as woefully as Stanford did Thursday (30.6 percent). Cal has been an underdog only two times this season. They covered both games, losing by a combined four points to Oregon and Virginia on the road. Again, they haven't lost at home. This is a team that has two phenomenal freshman, Ivan Rabb and Jaylen Brown, who combined for 37 points in the win over Arizona State Thursday. The Bears' average margin of victory here at home is 17 PPG, so the fact they are an underdog here seems like a steal to me. Especially since this has been the best team in the Pac 12 on the defensive end of the floor, allowing just 66.2 points per game on 37.8 percent shooting. This one "smells" like an upset. 10* California |
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01-23-16 | Bucks +5.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 99-116 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (7:05 ET): The Bucks lost last night in Houston, 102-98 as two-point dogs, but come in undervalued for the second game of a back to back tonight here in the Big Easy. The only reason that I can think of as to why they are taking more points against the Pelicans than they were vs. the Rockets is that it's the second game of a back to back. But betting against this Bucks team when unrested would be a mistake as is evident by their 9-2 ATS record in that role (6-5 straight up). New Orleans, despite four wins in its last five games, remains one of the league's biggest disappointments and is a money-burning 5-8 ATS this year when laying points. The Bucks had covered five straight before yday's loss. Take the points. The Bucks have now been w/o HC Jason Kidd for the last 16 games, but just to show how little that means, they've gone 8-8 SU in his absence as opposed to 11-18 with him on the bench. They'd won a season-best three in a row heading into last night and a late rally that came up just shy should carry over into tonight. The team should also be highly motivated to end a 13-game losing streak here in New Orleans. They lost by just a single point in last year's visit (as seven-point dogs) though. Over its last six games, the Bucks have not been beaten by more than five points. After scoring 100+ in four straight, they've been held under that threshold the last two. But they should have little difficulty scoring here against a porous New Orleans defense that is allowing 105.1 PPG this year. The Pelicans shot 53.5% Thursday vs. Detroit, their second highest percentage in a game all season. Scoring has been way up for this team the L5 games and defensively they've been better as well. But still ranking 28th in defensive efficiency tells the story. This is not a good price range for the Pelicans to be in as they are just 3-12 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. They've also struggled against the Eastern Conference this year, going 4-10 SU/ATS. They did handle Detroit, who was in the second game of a back to back Thursday, but the difference there was that the Pistons were off a win at Houston the night prior, thus making it more likely to be prone to a letdown. 10* Milwaukee |
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01-23-16 | Maryland v. Michigan State -3.5 | Top | 65-74 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
10* Michigan State (6:30 ET): A Tom Izzo coached team had not lost three in a row since 2006-07. That changed Wednesday night when they lost here at home to Nebraska, 72-71, their second straight one-point defeat and third straight loss overall. It's getting to be desperation time in East Lansing and now #7 Maryland comes calling. But I happen to think the Terps are one of the more overrated teams in the country and Sparty is now a tremendous value laying a short number. MSU still allows only 55.5 PPG here at home and if there was a silver lining in Wednesday's loss, it was a return to form for Denzel Valentine, who contributed 24 pts, 6 rebounds and 6 assists. Lay the points. Remember, Michigan State was once ranked #1 in the country. They are actually just 1-3 SU since Valentine returned, which is pretty shocking. Having come 50 points short of the linesmakers expectations during the losing skid is even more shocking. It's difficult to pinpoint what exactly has been the cause of this subpar play, but one could certainly point a finger at Bryn Forbes, who has scored just five points on 1 of 13 shooting in the two home losses. I would expect him to play much better this evening. Wisconsin got to the free throw line 36 times last weekend and Nebraska shot 56.8 percent from two-point range Wednesday. I wouldn't expect to see a repeat of those numbers here either. It's not like Maryland has set the world on fire recently. They happened to be on the right side of a close decision vs. Wisconsin, thanks to a last second shot, then lost at Michigan as three-point chalk. They trailed the Wolverines by double digits, so don't be fooled by the final score (70-67) there. Then, earlier in the week, the offense fell apart in the second half (just 17 points!) and they needed overtime to defeat Northwestern (whom they had beaten by 13 on the road earlier in the year). Turnovers have been a major problem for the Terrapins, who are giving the ball away on 19.6% of all possessions (250th in the country). They are quite lucky to be the fourth best shooting team in the country, but Sparty's defense will rise up here in a "must-win" spot. 10* Michigan State |
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01-23-16 | Duke -4 v. NC State | Top | 88-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
8* Duke (2:00 ET): Somebody sound the alarm in Cameron as Duke has lost three consecutive games as a favorite. I made the mistake of taking them Monday as they dropped a second straight game at home, this one by two to Syracuse (were -11.5). All three losses have come by five points or less. While the loss of Amile Jefferson has definitely left Coach K a little shorthanded, I expect him to turn things around sooner rather than later. It starts Saturday afternoon in Raleigh where they'll face a NC State team in prime letdown mode following a big upset of Pitt (as nine-point dogs) earlier in the week. Previous to that, the Wolfpack were 0-5 SU in ACC play. Duke has owned this rivalry (30-6 SU) and I see that continuing here. Prior to this losing streak, offense had not been an issue for the Blue Devils. They still rank 4th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (according to KenPom) and average 85.6 points per game. But against the Syracuse zone, they scored only 62 pts (season-low) on 37.1 percent shooting. What's most unfortunate about that is that they wasted their own strong defensive effort as they held Syracuse to just 35.2 percent for the game. They are only 123rd in adjusted defensive efficiency and if you're a team w/ size, you can give the Blue Devils some trouble. But I just can't see them dropping a fourth straight ACC game. Not against a NC State squad that is allowing opponents to shoot 41.7% from three-point range here at home. The truth is that NC State is probably better than its conference record shows as the first four games, all losses, were decided by seven points or less. Then came a double digit loss at North Carolina. But everything broke right Tuesday at Pitt as they raced out to an unthinkable 44-19 edge at halftime and cruised to a 17-point win as nine-point underdogs. But I find it hard to believe that they can even come close to duplicating such a performance here. Consider that the Wolfpack still turned it over 19 times in the victory, which is a little bit concerning. With the weather not good in Raleigh this weekend, I wouldn't be surprised if the crowd support isn't what it normally would be for a matchup of this magnitude. 8* Duke |
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01-23-16 | Oklahoma -2 v. Baylor | Top | 82-72 | Win | 100 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma (12:00 ET): For Oklahoma, it's first time atop the polls since 1989-90 is likely to be a short one as they were "upset" Monday by Iowa State, losing 82-77. I used the term upset in quotation marks, because despite the #1 ranking, it was hardly an upset as the linesmakers had Iowa State favored in Ames. OU is favored here, Saturday afternoon in Waco, against a Baylor team coming off a double overtime win against Kansas State on Wednesday. All that extra time does the Bears no favors here as the situation already favored the Sooners (two extra days to prepare), who are 13-4 ATS L17 trips to Waco. Lay the points. At least from a pointspread perspective, Oklahoma has struggled in Big 12 play. They are 1-5 ATS w/ all but one game decided by six points or less. So, perhaps we should have seen Monday's result coming, especially on the heels of B2B two-point victories over Oklahoma State and West Virginia. But make no mistake about it; this is one of the best teams in the country w/ one of the best players (Buddy Hield). Plus, they are the best 3-point shooting team in the country, hitting a remarkable 45.7% for the season and that percentage actually goes UP on the road. Interestingly, the team actually made a season-best 17 three-pointers Monday vs. ISU, yet lost. The problem was outside of the starting backcourt of Hield and Isaiah Cousins, everyone else was a woeful 2 of 15 from two-point range. That's highly unlikely to be repeated. Baylor was destroyed in the Big 12 opener, 102-74 in Kansas, but since then has won five straight and is actually the only team in the league w/ just one conference loss. But the team has been a little fortunate in its last two wins, first needing a buzzer beater to get by Texas Tech (63-60) last Saturday in Lubbock and then as I mentioned earlier, they needed two overtimes to get by Kansas State on Wednesday (trailed by as many as 10 in the first half). So the Bears have been living dangerously and history does not shine on them in this spot as they have NEVER beaten a #1 ranked team (0-6) in program history. Keep in mind that they have been blown out twice (Kansas, Texas A&M). 8* Oklahoma |
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01-23-16 | South Carolina v. Tennessee +1.5 | Top | 69-78 | Win | 100 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (12:00 ET): South Carolina still only has the one loss, 73-50 at Alabama, but I'm not sure there's a single person outside of Columbia that feels Frank Martin's team is one of the nation's elite. In fact, many rating systems don't even have them in the Top 25 and I'm inclined to agree. Wins over Missouri and Ole Miss over the last week again have the Gamecocks somewhat overvalued for this trip to Knoxville where waiting for them will be an angry Tennessee team that just got whipped here at Thompson-Boling Arena by Vandy. Perhaps you recall that I went AGAINST UT there as Vandy is the opposite of South Carolina, a team that is far better than its record shows. I don't see the Vols dropping B2B home games, so look for them to hand USC its second loss of the season. The final score from Wednesday somewhat undersells how easily Tennessee was handled by the Commodores. Normally, losing by 14 at home would be bad enough on its own, but consider that the Vols trailed by as many as 28 in the game. But going back to my analysis, I was sure to point out what a bad matchup that was for UT as the smallest team in the SEC going against the biggest. It sure didn't help that they were outscored 39-12 from behind the three-point arc either. Now having dropped three of its last four, including B2B homes games, it's desperation time for Rick Barnes' team. Barnes called his team's performance "awful," rightly so, but it should be pointed out that they didn't have the usual amount of crowd support due to inclement weather keeping many fans away. The fact that South Carolina even pulled out a victory in its last game is a minor miracle. They actually trailed Ole Miss by 11 w/ just under four minutes to go in regulation, but were able to force OT and win the game by three as 1.5-point favorites. It's been that kind of a season for them as they're now 11-3 ATS, but make no mistake about it, I anticipate this strictly being a "play against" team down the stretch. This will be the first time this season that they are playing B2B "true" road games inside of a week. Tennessee is 6-3 ATS as a dog this year & 18-6 ATS L24 as a home dog of 3 pts or less. 8* Tennessee |
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01-22-16 | Spurs -15.5 v. Lakers | Top | 108-95 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (10:35 ET): Obviously, this spread is rather high. But, in my opinion, the linesmakers can't make it high enough. Consider that my own personal power ratings would have this line above -20! Also, consider that the Spurs are off a 28-point win (I was on the Over) last night in Phoenix where they cashed as 16.5-point road favorites. Phoenix has been very bad of late, but I'm not sure they are worse than the Lakers, who come into Friday riding a four-game losing streak and every defeat has come by at least 17 points. This is a matchup of my #1 and #29 rated teams. I would have expected a higher spread for this one. I'm not sure there are any superlatives left to describe San Antonio's season. Really, the only debate is whether its them or the Warriors that are the league's best. I side with the Spurs, who have a ridiculous +14.6 per game point differential and are on a historic pace at the defensive end of the floor. In terms of efficiency, they allow five fewer points per 100 possessions than the second best team. Since losing as an underdog (to Oklahoma City) in the season opener, Greg Popovich's team has been favored in every game and gone a ridiculous 30-12 ATS. They are 18-4 ATS when facing a team w/ a losing record and a perfect 7-0 ATS when playing in the second game of a back to back. Ridiculous! What's also ridiculous is how bad the Lakers are.They lost by 22 to the Spurs last month, in San Antonio, but a change in venue is likely to bring little in the way of change in terms of result. LA is 30th in terms of defensive efficiency in the league, allowing a stunning 14.5 more points per 100 possessions compared to the Spurs. The organization's mentality of allowing Kobe Bryant to "do his thing" might help sell tickets, but it is stunting the team's growth as they should be focusing on playing the youngsters more. There's no other way to put it - Byron Scott has done a hideous job this season. 8* San Antonio |
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01-22-16 | Pacers +13.5 v. Warriors | Top | 110-122 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
10* Indiana (10:35 ET): This is a lot of points for the Pacers to be taking. In fact, it's the most they've gotten in any game this season. History shines brightly on them in this role as they've gone 13-4 ATS when getting 12.5 or more from the oddsmakers, including a perfect 2-0 ATS the L2 seasons. They don't exactly come into this nationally televised matchup with the Warriors in "prime form," but did at least snap a three-game losing skid Tuesday night w/ a 97-94 win at Phoenix. Backers, myself included, really got "backdoored" in that one as at one point Indiana led by as many as 20 in the second half. There are some ugly trends that Frank Vogel's team must combat here, namely an 0-8 ATS record when seeking revenge for a home loss & a 5-13 ATS mark vs. the West. But they are 14-4 ATS when facing a team w/ a winning record and 8-1 ATS when taking the court w/ exactly two days rest. Take the points. Meanwhile, I also happened to back the Warriors Wednesday night and watched them roll at Chicago, winning 125-94 and covering as only seven-point favorites (I also had them Monday at Cleveland). This is their first game back at home following a three-game East Coast swing, so might there be a little bit of a letdown, particularly w/ the showdown vs. the Spurs looming Monday? Note that Golden State is just 7-9 ATS vs. the East this year. Draymond Green is listed as probable here, but is dealing w/ a head injury. As alluded to above, the Warriors beat the Pacers in Indiana earlier this year, 131-123 as 5.5-point chalk. Golden State shot a ridiculous 54% from the floor in that game and made 14 three-pointers. My feeling is that the Warriors are starting to be a little bit overrated as prior to the B2B blowout wins over Cleveland and Chicago, they had gone 0-3-1 ATS the previous four games. Yes, they haven't lost at home all season, but I think Indiana will give them a tough game here. Note that the Pacers rank third in the league in terms of defensive efficiency. 10* Indiana |
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01-22-16 | St. Peter's v. Iona -6.5 | Top | 58-64 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
8* Iona (7:00 ET): The Gaels are off an outright loss their last time out, on the road, as they fell to Rider 79-75 as four-point chalk. That actually made it B2B outright losses as Friday saw them drop a wild game to Monmouth, 110-102, and no there was not overtime there! What that loss did was snap Iona's 26-game home win streak and things got real ugly as Iona HC Tim Cluess and several of his players didn't take too kindly to the Monmouth bench's continuing in-game antics. So, Sunday's loss at Rider was at least somewhat predictable. Jordan Washington (leading scorer) was suspended for that game, and this one too, but note Iona did quickly take a 16-point first half lead against Rider. They'll persevere here against a St. Peter's team that's playing its third game in six days (second straight on the road). Lay the points. St. Peter's arrives here on a three-game win streak after upsetting Fairfield on Tuesday, 77-71 as three-point pups. The Peacocks shot an insanely good 56 percent from the field in the upset, but what's really keyed each of the last three wins is all three opponents shooting 35.5% or worse. I think it would amount to "wishful thinking" that Iona would shoot that poorly tonight as they come in averaging 84.6 points per game at home. St. Peter's has excelled as an underdog this season, going 7-1 against the spread w/ five outright wins, but maintaining that kind of success is going to be difficult. This is the program's best ever start in MAAC play. Eventually, Cinderella is going to turn into a pumpkin. 8* Iona |
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01-21-16 | Gonzaga +3.5 v. St. Mary's | Top | 67-70 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
10* Gonzaga (11:00 ET): This is annually St. Mary's biggest game of the year and one that typically ends in heartbreak. Not only is Gonzaga 40-8 straight up the last 48 meetings between these WCC rivals (30-18 ATS), but they have won and covered five straight at the expense of the Gaels, including the 2014 Conference Tournament Final. Even on the road, it's been all Zags as they have won 13 of their last 18 visits to McKeon Pavillion. Though many will point to the fact that SMU has had a full week to prepare here and that Gonzaga is having a down year, I still feel the script will remain the same tonight as the better team is getting points. St. Mary's record looks nice, but they clearly have been one of the nation's biggest overachievers. Their only two losses both came on the road and were by a combined seven points to Cal and Pepperdine. The latest loss came as an eight-point favorite and actually marked the first game all season where the Gaels failed to cover (opened 12-0 ATS). They did bounce back against Pacific, at home, two days later. But, again, they failed to cover, this time as big 19.5-point chalk. You had to figure that sooner or later the oddsmakers would begin to catch up and we're starting to see that. The trend continues here as I don't think they should be favored, even though they're the home team. Some teams just have their rival's number and that's certainly been the case w/ Gonzaga vs. St. Mary's. Gonzaga destroyed San Diego last Saturday, winning 88-52, for their largest margin of victory since the second game of the season. But that hasn't made them overvalued in this spot at all. Rather, this will be the first time all season that the 'Zags will come in as an underdog and just the seventh time in the last three seasons. Interestingly, they have won all three "true" road games so far, but failed to cover the spread each time. That's because they were asked to lay double digits in all three. Despite the "down year" in Spokane, Mark Few's team is still averaging over 80 points per game and that makes them quite the live dog. 10* Gonzaga |
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01-21-16 | Troy State v. Louisiana-Monroe -6 | Top | 74-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
8* LA Monroe (8:00 ET): Yet another team off an outright loss here and it's LA Monroe, who has actually suffered the ignominy of four straight losses, all on the road. The last one saw them favored by 2.5 at GA Southern, yet the final result was 66-51, not in their favor. The score was almost identical when they lost at Georgia State two days prior. The first two games of the trip, ironically against stiffer competition, were both close games as the Warhawks fell to Arkansas State and Arkansas Little Rock by a combined four points. Needless to say, they should be thrilled to be back in Monroe for the next four games and I believe they'll start to turn things around tonight at the expense of a poor Troy team. Lay the points. Again, I'll point to the home court edge as a likely deciding factor in this one. Troy is just 2-6 SU on the road and lost by nine in last year's visit here. Despite their own 6-11 SU record (same as LA Monroe), the Trojans' overall numbers reflect a fairly mediocre club, one that is being outscored by only two points per game for the year. But the key is Monroe's impressive home numbers. Not only are the Warhawks a perfect 5-0 SU this year in their own gym, but they're winning by an average margin of 21.4 PPG. You won't find many teams that have played only five of 17 games at home to this point, so I wouldn't be surprised if the next two weeks help to turn around Monroe's season. They are 25-10 SU at home the L3 seasons. Troy had actually dropped six in a row before Saturday's 66-57 home win over Texas State. They'd given up 80+ points in four of those losses, two times 90 or more. Meanwhile, I look at LA Monroe's defensive numbers and wonder how this team could have a losing record. Sure, the numbers at home reflect a small sample size, but consider that they're allowing opponents to shoot just 40.2% for the year. That number decreases at home to 37.4% w/ three point defense (28.3%) being particularly exemplary. They themselves are shooting 52.8% from the field at home, including above 42% from behind the arc. This should be a blowout for the Warhawks. 8* LA Monroe |
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01-21-16 | Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion -9 | Top | 62-68 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
8* Old Dominion (7:00 ET): If you're a regular reader/client, then you know I've been targeting teams off an outright loss in their previous game as potential 'play on' opportunities. Such an opportunity will be presenting itself three times in this report, starting w/ Old Dominion. The Monarchs have actually lost three consecutive times as favorites, so the fact that they remain chalk here shows what kind of faith the market still has in them. Note that those three losses have all been by the slimmest of margins, six points total in fact, so I feel a bounce back is imminent. It's telling that despite the 3-11 ATS record, the Monarchs (9-9 straight up) are still favored here over a 10-8 Western Kentucky team. Lay the points here. Defense and home court advantage are two big edges to Old Dominion here. As far as the former is concerned, the Monarchs are allowing just 56.4 points per game here at home this season. Skeptics will point to them allowing only 38 to a non-board team (Delaware State), but the fact is ODU has allowed fewer than 75 points in all but two games this season and actually ranks 8th nationally in points allowed. Given that they only allow 56.4 PPG here at home, it should come as no surprise to find that they are 8-2 straight up here with a scoring differential of +16.3 per game. They had actually won 32 straight home games before losing here to UAB and Middle Tennessee by a total of four points last week (started 8-0 this year). WKU, meanwhile, was only 1-7 SU on the road this season before a win over a terrible North Texas team this past weekend. The fact that the Hilltoppers were even favored in that game should tell you about the sorry state of UNT right there. Also consider that the 76 points allowed in that win was one of WKU's BETTER performances of late. They allow 77.4 PPG for the year (82.0 PPG on the road) and had given up 94, 82 and 83 in three of their previous four contests. They were destroyed in last year's visit to Norfolk, losing 75-52 as nine-point dogs. The home court edge really is a big deal here as is ODU's defensive prowess. 8* Old Dominion |
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01-21-16 | Memphis v. Cincinnati -7.5 | Top | 72-76 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (7:00 ET): If you recall from the early part of the season, Memphis was a team that I said I was going to target as a 'play against.' So the fact that Cincinnati is in a "buy low" spot here (off two-point loss at Temple Saturday) makes the situation even sweeter. Clearly, Memphis is a program in steep decline under the watch of HC Josh Pastner following the "golden era" of John Calipari. Seven players had transferred out of the program even before this year even got underway and Pastner is nowhere near the recruiter Coach Cal was/is. The Tigers come in having won five of seven, but all the wins were against lesser competition than what awaits them here. Despite only a 13-6 SU record, Cincinnati is a dangerous team that I feel is poised to go on a nice run and land in the NCAA Tournament. Lay the points. Yes, Memphis may have beaten the same Temple team that has now beaten Cincinnati twice, but let's look at those results. Memphis won by two at home over the Owls, while the Bearcats just lost by two to them. That was actually Cincy's fourth two point loss of the season, the others coming to Butler, Iowa State and SMU, all of whom are ranked. Had all three of those results gone "the other way," we'd probably see Mick Cronin's team ranked in the top 15 nationally. Poor shooting has cost them recently (38.7% last 5 games) but I wouldn't worry too much about that as at home, they are at 47.1 percent for the year. Also, they have held their L2 opponents both under 40 percent, a threshold Memphis has been below in four of its last five games. While looking over both teams' defensive numbers, you might figure that points will be at a premium and thus backing the dog is the way to go here. But, again, not so fast. Memphis has played only two "true" road games so far and given up an average of 81 points per game in them. I'm far more confident in Cincinnati's ability to score tonight as they average 81.7 PPG here at home where they are outscoring foes by 18.8 points per game. The price range also shouldn't scare you as the Bearcats are a perfect 5-0 ATS the L3 seasons as home chalk of 6.5 to 9 points. 8* Cincinnati |
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01-20-16 | Vanderbilt -2.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 88-74 | Win | 100 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
8* Vanderbilt (9:00 ET): Vandy, like Texas, is better than its record. I say that even though the Commodores let me down on Saturday by failing to cover an 11-point spot at home against an Alabama team that had just handed South Carolina its first loss of the year. Maybe, with the benefit of hindsight, that spread was too high. But tonight's line certainly isn't as it's a short number the Commies are laying in a visit to in-state rival Tennessee. Once again, it's another opponent fresh off an upset as the Vols beat Mississippi State 80-75 on Saturday as three-point road underdogs. As strong as they've looked in Knoxville this season (8-1 SU), they did lose their last game here, 92-88 to Texas A&M, and as is the case here they came into that game off fresh off an upset win. Lay the points. This will actually be the fifth consecutive game where UT is an underdog, so right there you can get a feel about how the "market" judges them. Four of the team's last six games have been decided by six points or less. Predictably, the three times they've given up more than 80 points during that stretch, they have lost. Fortunately, they do average 79.6 points per game themselves, but what about a Vandy team that comes in averaging 78.4? Unlike the Vols, the Commodores are capable of playing a little defense as they are giving up just 65.4 PPG and allowing teams to shoot just 37.7% (27.5% from three-point range). That will be a big difference in this game. It's hard to believe that Vanderbilt is just 10-7 SU this season given that they have a per game point differential of +13.0! For the sake of comparison, Tennessee is 9-8 SU, but only outscoring its opponents by 3.2 points per game! So the road favorite status is definitely justified for the Commodores here and in fact they came to Knoxville and won last year, 73-65 as one-point dogs. That's their only win in the last four meetings, however, so they won't be lacking for motivation. Throw in the fact that Tennessee will again likely be w/o forward Armani Moore (12.4 PPG), leaving them with a big size disadvantage for this matchup. Vandy has three players at 7 feet or taller on its roster, most notably Luke Kornet, and this is actually a matchup of the SEC's tallest vs. shortest team, which is great for the underrated Commies. 8* Vanderbilt |
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01-20-16 | Wolves +9.5 v. Mavs | Top | 94-106 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (8:35 ET): The T'wolves started the season surprisingly strong with an 8-8 SU record through 16 games. Since then, they have won just five times in their last 27 tries and lately it's been a real ugly 1-10 stretch with the only win coming at home against a similarly downtrodden Phoenix team. The misery continued last night in New Orleans where they were beaten 114-99 as 5.5-point dogs and obviously few will give them a chance here in the second game of a back to back. But, I'll continue to make the case that teams playing w/o rest are typically undervalued (particularly when on the road) and that is the case here in a visit to Dallas where the Mavs are off a SU dog win over Boston their last time out. Take the points. Last night is an exception, but for whatever reason Minnesota has simply played better on the road this season. They are just 7-13 straight up, but 12-8 ATS, which is a reflection of the high spreads they face on a game by game basis. Last night, the linesmakers were of little help as the team allowed the Pelicans to shoot better than 50% from the floor, but overall the T'wolves are being outscored by just 2.5 points per game away from home. It was a six-point game when they hosted Dallas ten days ago, even though it was a poor shooting night (4 of 16 from 3-pt range). While still winless this season in the second game of a back to back (0-7 SU), the T'wolves are 5-2 ATS as road underdogs of 6.5 to 9 points, so this is a good range for them to be in. Dallas is 5th in the West, but realistically nowhere close to the top four in terms of talent or results. They were blown out by both Oklahoma City and San Antonio on the road last week before returning home to surprise Boston Monday night. In retrospect, it was pretty curious that they were getting two points at home in that spot. They did lead by as many as 17 in the fourth quarter before a dramatic swing had the Celtics up six and it looked as if the linesmakers might be 'spot on." But the Mavs were able to force OT and win 118-113. That being the third time they had to go into overtime in the last nine games, you have to wonder if it will be the home team showing signs of fatigue in this one. Dallas has actually been outscored this season (-0.2 PPG) & is just 2-6 ATS coming off a SU win as a dog. 10* Minnesota |
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01-20-16 | Warriors -6.5 v. Bulls | Top | 125-94 | Win | 100 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
8* Golden State (8:05 ET): There probably won't be a better value all season than the one we got on the Warriors Monday night as they were actually a 3.5 point underdog when they went into Cleveland and destroyed the Cavaliers 132-98. Naturally, expecting that kind of performance two games in a row would be somewhat foolish, but that doesn't mean there isn't value in taking the NBA Champs yet again. Here, they visit a Chicago team off its own outright win as a dog (111-101 at Detroit, +3), but previously the Bulls had failed to cover five in a row. I am still not sold on this team under Fred Hoiberg and remember they are now w/o Joakim Noah for the foreseeable future. Golden State is still 60 percent ATS for the year (24-16-2) and just in a different class than Chicago. Lay the points. It was downright ridiculous what the Warriors pulled off Monday night in Cleveland and even I (who took them) could not have anticipated such a one-sided affair. They scored 132 points on 54.1% shooting including 19 made three-pointers. They outscored the Cavs 31-2 in transition and the game was never close after Golden State went up 34-21 after one quarter w/ Steph Curry leading the way w/ 16 points. At one point, they led by as many as 43! Though all four of their losses this season have come on the road, the Warriors are still 15-7 ATS in those games w/ an average margin of victory of +8.7 per game. I don't anticipate any kind of a letdown here. Chicago may be 9-2 SU w/o Noah this season, but his 8.8 rebounds per game were a big part of the team leading the league in that category. Also, the fact that the Bulls have allowed an average of 105.8 points its last six games is somewhat of an ominous sign here going up against the most efficient offense in basketball. I think Chicago is somewhat lucky to be where it's at in the standings (third in the East) as they are outscoring opponents by only 1.4 points per game. They are 14-8 SU in games decided by six points or less, including needing a huge comeback to beat Philadelphia last week. Derrick Rose is nowhere close to the player he once was and for whatever reason this team simply does not shoot the ball well at home (42.8%). Look for another Warriors blowout here. 8* Golden State |
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01-20-16 | Texas +12.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 56-49 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
8* Texas (7:00 ET): Texas is one of those teams that's better than its record, which is now 11-6 (straight up) following B2B wins over Iowa State and Oklahoma State last week in Austin. Remember, this is just year one under HC Shaka Smart, who is w/o his best player (Cameron Ridley). Clearly, tonight's visit to Morgantown will be a challenge, but I think Smart will have his team up for it. WVU is coming off just its second loss of the season (by two at Oklahoma) and because of the nature of that loss, I wonder how they'll respond. This is also somewhat of a "flat spot" for the Mountaineers after playing the two top teams in the nation last week (Kansas, OU). I've said it before, but it bears repeating. WVU is unlikely to continue holding its opponents to such poor shooting numbers, while their own shooting is due to decline as well. Take the points. A case can be made that Iowa State is overrated, but beating them was a nice win for Texas last week. They followed it up by holding off Oklahoma State on Saturday in a game that really wasn't as close as the 74-69 final score indicates. At one point, the Longhorns led by as many as 23 points in the second half and were really rolling. But they missed 14 of their final 16 three-point attempts and that combined w/ poor free throw shooting let the Pokes in through the "back door." But, as an underdog, there's a lot to like about this team. They have yet to be blown out w/ their largest loss coming by 11 points against Texas A&M, which was the third game of the season and in the Bahamas. Four of the other five defeats have come by six points or less. Stylistically, they match up well against WVU as Smart is known to employ a similar kind of defensive pressure as his counterpart Bob Huggins. The last time WVU played here in Morgantown, they "upset" then #1 Kansas, 74-63 (were only 1 pt dogs). In what was a very tough spot, they then had to go to Norman to face #2 Oklahoma and ended up losing 70-68 on a last second tip in. After two games like that, you have to wonder what the Mounties may have left in the tank here. Are opponents really going to continue shooting only 27.4% from three-point range against them? Probably not. Interestingly, Oklahoma was held to just 33.3% shooting and still won the game. WVU turned the ball over 16 times against the Sooners, which is cause for concern here. Consider that in their last three games, Texas has turned it over just 19 times - total. Those numbers are a big deal in a game that is bound to feature a lot of pressing. This spread just seems way too high. 8* Texas |
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01-20-16 | Nebraska v. Michigan State -14 | Top | 72-71 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
10* Michigan State (6:30 ET): Tom Izzo's team has now dropped B2B games outright, first to Iowa in what was a big revenge spot (were -9) and then Sunday at Wisconsin (were -6). But if Nebraska thinks they are going to be able to come into East Lansing and surprise the Spartans, they better think again. Each of the last two seasons, the Cornhuskers have upset Sparty, including 60-51 (as 14-pt dogs) here at the Breslin Center back in 2014. Last year's only meeting took place in Lincoln and it was another upset, this time by two as two-point dogs. Don't think for a second that Izzo won't be constantly reminding his players of that and as a result I expect an angry favorite to take care of business in this spot. Lay the points. Revenge can often be an overrated factor in handicapping and we saw that play out the last time the Spartans were in East Lansing when Iowa came in and beat them for a second time this year, this time 76-59 and that was with Denzel Valentine back in the lineup for MSU. But remember that Iowa is a really good team (I had them in the first meeting), much better than tonight's opponent. Sparty's loss to Wisconsin over the weekend can be more easily "explained away." It was fouling, which they did too much of, leading to the Badgers owning a 36-16 edge in FT attempts. That clearly made a huge difference in a game that was decided by just a single point. Remember though; MSU had been in the top 10 defensively prior to the B2B losses. Though just 1-2 since his return, Valentine being back clearly makes this a better team. Nebraska seems to be trending in the right direction as they have won three straight (4-0 ATS L4). Thus, they are likely to be feeling pretty good about themselves coming into tonight. But I question them being able to maintain their recent hot shooting (54.2% overall L3 games) against a team known for playing stingy defense. They are also not likely to dominate the boards here in the manner they did against their previous three opponents as MSU ranks 11th nationally in rebounding. With the Cornhuskers off a SU dog win at Illinois their last time out & MSU off B2B SU losses as a favorite, it's a clear sell high/buy low situation here. Remember that Nebraska had opened Big 10 play w/ three straight losses. 10* Michigan State |
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01-19-16 | Pacers -6.5 v. Suns | Top | 97-94 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
10* Indiana (9:05 ET): Just last week, the Pacers beat the Suns 116-97 (were -12) in Indiana. Believe it or not, Phoenix had actually taken seven of the nine previous meetings before that while also going a perfect 9-0 against the spread. Certainly, you'd imagine that trend has to start "going the other way" and given the current sorry state of the Suns, I'll call for Indiana to come in here and record another blowout. Now the Pacers have dropped three in a row, including a three-point loss in Denver two nights ago where the defense, uncharacteristically, let them down. But tonight they face an opponent in far worse shape as Phoenix is just 1-13 SU its last 14 games overall. Only three times during that stretch have they covered the spread. Lay the points here. Defensively, Indiana rates as the fourth most efficient team in the league as they allow just 99.1 points per 100 possessions. They were second before giving up 129 in Denver as the Nuggets scored 45 in the fourth quarter alone and 75 in the second half. Needless to say, that was very "un-Pacers" like and the defensive lapse wasted their own 66 point first half (season-high!) on 66 percent shooting. Note, however, that Frank Vogel had only 10 players suit up in the loss and it appeared as if the team ran out of gas. They should have little trouble stopping Phoenix here though as the Suns shot just 40.4% in last week's matchup and have averaged only 96.8 PPG over the last month. That includes only 87 points in Sunday's loss to Minnesota. Scoring should not be an issue for Indiana here either. Yes, they might still be down a few players, but they are facing a Phoenix team that is allowing the highest field goal percentage of any team in the league right now (47.6%), not to mention 113.4 PPG their last seven contests. If you're looking for a trend with the Pacers, note they have not lost four in a row all season long. Three times they've dropped three in a row and they've won and covered the next time out, every time. Unlike past seasons, the Eastern Conference has made a solid account for itself against the West this year, even being responsible for half of the Warriors/Spurs total losses, not to mention eight of the Thunder's 12. Somewhat surprisingly, Indiana has not played a role in that success, but I certainly expect them to take advantage of a lesser non-conference opponent, even if it's on the road. 10* Indiana |
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01-19-16 | Loyola-Chicago +14.5 v. Evansville | Top | 66-74 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
8* Loyola (IL) (9:00 ET): Normally, I might take a look at a team like Loyola, who is off an impressive 51-41 upset of Northern Iowa on Saturday, and call for a letdown spot the following game. But the Ramblers have had quite the unique season so far. Prior to pulling off that upset, they'd lost five in a row, but this is by no means a bad team. Three straight losses came by a combined FIVE points and there is no doubt in my mind that this team is far better than its 8-10 straight up (5-12 ATS) record shows. Tonight, motivation should not be a question as they travel to Evansville to face one of the top teams in the Missouri Valley. There will be no letdown here as Loyola is due to start covering some more games. Take the points. Admittedly, Evansville is a hot team right now. The Purple Aces are 16-3 SU for the season and have won nine of 10, including five straight covers. The one SU loss came by three at MVC leader Wichita State and since then they've posted three consecutive double digit victories, the most recent coming at Illinois State on Friday, 66-55 as 5.5-point chalk. But, perhaps, has this team reached its "tipping point?" They've shot a ridiculous 52.2% from the floor this season and been above 50% in four of the last five games. That's in sharp contrast to Loyola, who is shooting a wretched 40.4% in conference play so far. Eventually though, these shooting percentages will start to even out. Loyola is one of the few teams in the MVC whose scoring average is actually DOWN compared to last year (remember rule changes). Despite being off an SU dog win, it's still a "buy low" situation with the road dog here. As they showed against Northern Iowa, Loyola can certainly play some defense and that will come in handy here. Allowing just 62.2 PPG for the year, the Ramblers held UNI to 41 points on 27.1% shooting Saturday! Evansville is similarly stingy (just 65.5 PPG allowed) and two of its last three opponents have shot worse than 31% from the field. But those defensive numbers certainly seem to indicate that points will be at a premium all around in this one, so naturally backing the underdog seems like the way to go. Ramblers HC Porter Moser made some changes to his starting lineup for the last game and they certainly seemed to pay off. While Evansville has taken three of the last four meetings between the two schools, Loyola won here last season as six-point dogs. 8* Loyola (IL) |
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01-19-16 | Western Michigan v. Ohio -5 | Top | 64-82 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
10* Ohio (7:00 ET): Ohio is off a pretty bad week as they were beaten outright here in Athens, 91-75 by Bowling Green (as 10.5 pt favorites), then fell at Kent State by a score of 89-82 (were 4.5 pt dogs). That makes it three losses in the last four games for the Bobcats (0-4 ATS), who now find themselves in a bit of a hole at the outset of MAC play. But it's not like overcoming a 1-3 SU conference record is insurmountable. Tonight they host a Western Michigan team that treated me quite well on Saturday as they rolled to an 83-69 win over Northern Illinois, but that was their 1st conference win of this campaign. OU takes the court here w/ a little bit of quadruple revenge (0-4 SU/1-3 ATS) on its mind after being swept each of the last two seasons by the Broncos. Lay the points. Though they lost by double digits the last time they played at home, Ohio actually led the game (against Bowling Green) by five at the break. BG caught fire in the second half, scoring 58 points and the Bobcats couldn't stop fouling as they finished w/ the unusual distinction of attempting fewer free throws (21) than their visiting opponent made (22). That was bad news for the Bobcats, who are fourth in the COUNTRY in FT shooting (77.4%), yet uncharacteristically went 12 of 21 against the Falcons. Saturday at Kent State saw them go an outstanding 20 of 22 from the charity stripe, but again the opponent got more opportunities (36) and that ended up being the difference in the ball game. Simply put, it is very important that the Bobcats get to the FT line with greater regularity than Western Michigan here. WMU was at home Saturday and pretty much rolled from the start against Northern Illinois as I'd anticipated. But outside of Kalamazoo, things have tended to not go the Broncos' way. They are just 1-7 SU in road/neutral site games this year while averaging only 64.2 points per game (40.4 FG%). That's a far cry from the offensive output we got on Saturday when the team connected on 12 of 26 three-point attempts. OU, averaging 79.2 points per game this season, is 8-1 SU at home. The home court edge is a big deal in this one and I expect WMU's turnover issues (14.5 per game in MAC play) to haunt them here. 10* Ohio |
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01-18-16 | Warriors +3 v. Cavs | Top | 132-98 | Win | 100 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
10* Golden State (8:05 ET): When last year's two NBA finalists rematched on X-Mas Day, I took Cleveland (as a 7-pt underdog) and the end result worked out in my favor as the final score was "only" 89-83 in favor of the Warriors. Now the Cavs get to play host, but the line has shifted too much in my opinion. I would still make the NBA Champs a favorite here, even though they are off a loss (second in three games!) and Cleveland has lost only one time at home all season. The Cavs just completed a long road trip w/ three games in four nights in Texas and having to return home to face the Warriors in the first game back is a "tough ask." I don't see them holding Golden State to just 89 points again like they did the first time. Take the points. After winning 36 of their first 38 games, the Warriors have now fallen behind the pace set by Jordan's Bulls exactly 20 years ago. All four losses this season have come on the road. But this will be just the second time all year that they've been an underdog. The only other time was when they were w/o Steph Curry and playing the second game of a back to back (also off a loss) at Houston. They would go on to win that game outright. Despite losing to Denver and Detroit this week, let us not forget what this team has accomplished so far this season. They've still outscored opponents by 11.1 points per game and are +7.4 on the road. I seriously doubt we'll see them shoot as poorly again as they did Saturday in Detroit (36.2 percent) and off their three previous losses the team is 3-0 SU, 2-0-1 ATS. Cleveland did just play San Antonio on the road (lost by only four) and then concluded its road trip by holding Houston to just 77 points. Overall, the Cavs have won nine of 10, but I still see them as a "notch below" both the Spurs and Warriors at this time. That can certainly change as Kyrie Irving is still working his way back into shape after missing the first two months of the season. It promises to be a spirited crowd Monday night at the Quicken Loans Arena, but LeBron and company are just 13-19 ATS as a favorite this year and I simply do not believe laying points to a fully healthy Warriors squad is wise at this point. 10* Golden State |
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01-18-16 | Nets +12 v. Raptors | Top | 100-112 | Push | 0 | 20 h 47 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): Since firing HC Lionel Hollins and GM Billy King, the results have largely remained the same for the Nets, who are by most measures the third worst team in the league (only ahead of the Lakers and Sixers). They did beat the Knicks last Wednesday and I was on them there, but they've since dropped B2B games (both by double digits) to fall to 1-7 SU/ATS their last eight games and 11-30 SU overall for the season. However, tonight I see a little value in them taking double digits against a Toronto team that will be returning home following an extended road trip that saw them play a game in London last Thursday. The Raptors have had the last three days off, but the linesmakers have made them quite unappealing in this spot and I'll take the points. Brooklyn last played on Saturday and things certainly did not go well in a 114-86 loss in Atlanta. Fortunately for our purposes, it's hard to see them playing any worse here. They have really struggled to defend lately and the Hawks shot better than 55 percent from the field. But the Nets were better on that end of the floor against Toronto, at home on January 6th, even though they still lost 91-74. Usually you'll see a bit of an uptick, albeit only a temporary one, when a team makes a coaching change. Save for that win over the Knicks, we've really yet to see that with the Nets. Getting blown out again here, needless to say, would be a really bad "look." Surprisingly, they are 5-2 ATS (3-4 straight up!) as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points this season. The Raptors last played at home on January 3rd when they lost outright to the Bulls. Somewhat surprisingly, they are just 11-6 SU at home this year (8-9 against the spread). Many times, in a team's first game back home following a long trip, they struggle. Toronto has won four straight in spite of their own poor shooting, instead relying on defense and an ability to get to the free throw line. While there's no denying who the better team is here, Toronto is only 9-10 ATS when taking on a team w/ a losing record and this price range is pretty rarefied air for them. This is actually the most points they've been asked to lay in any game this season, even more than when they hosted Philadelphia. 10* Brooklyn |
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01-18-16 | Syracuse v. Duke -10.5 | Top | 64-62 | Loss | -118 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
10* Duke (7:00 ET): The Blue Devils are off B2B outright losses here, first to Clemson and then to Notre Dame. Clemson has caught the ACC by surprise and the game was on the road, so Coach K and company at least have a little bit of an excuse for going down there. But I was shocked to then see them fall again, here in Durham, to Notre Dame over the weekend. Then again, maybe I shouldn't have been as the Fighting Irish have now beaten Duke four of the last five times they have played due to matching up relatively well as both teams are typically among the nation's best in terms of offensive efficiency. Tonight's opponent, Syracuse, should be far more to the Cameron Crazies' liking. The Orange, though off a shockingly dominant 83-55 win at Wake Forest over the weekend, still average only 71.1 PPG for the season. Lay the points. The narrative surrounding Syracuse and its back to back wins will be "Boeheim is back." The legendary head coach (longest tenured in the country) missed nine games due to suspension and the team really did struggle w/o him, losing five times, three of those coming by double digits. What we saw offensively from the Orange on Saturday though I feel had more to do with how awful Wake Forest has been defensively, not Boeheim or something the 'Cuse is capable of on a regular basis. The Orange made 10 three-pointers plus had 32 points in the paint. But, honestly, it was a better than usual performance on the defensive end that keyed the victory and Wake really helped out by shooting a woeful 32.6 percent for the game, including 2 for 20 on three-pointers. Duke is far more likely to find success against Syracuse's trademark zone than Wake Forest did. The Blue Devils come in averaging 86.9 points per game (93.3 at home!) and prior to Notre Dame had not dropped a game here in Cameron Indoor all season. Their average margin of victory here at home is +24.2 PPG thanks to 50.1% overall shooting including 40.9% from three-point range. Syracuse, which received a season-best 27 points from Trevor Cooney against Wake Forest, simply won't be able to keep pace. They are 2-8 ATS the L3 seasons after topping 80 pts in their previous game. Duke was victimized by a career-best game from an opposing player their last time out, but is 9-2 ATS after allowing 80+ points. They beat the Orange by 19 here at home last year. 10* Duke |
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01-18-16 | Blazers +5 v. Wizards | Top | 108-98 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
8* Portland (2:05 ET): The Blazers are coming off the most embarrassing loss possible, that being to Philadelphia. Playing in the second game of a back to back, they actually fell behind the Sixers (in Philly) by as many as 31 points in the fourth quarter (were 6 pt favorites!) Saturday night. Though the Sixers had just blown a big lead against Chicago their previous game, few could have predicted that result as Portland actually came in riding a three-game win streak (beat Brooklyn 116-104 the previous night) and does boast the league's highest scoring backcourt tandem in Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum (45.1 points per game). That duo combined to shoot just 10 of 36 from the floor Saturday (2 of 12 from 3-pt range) and as a team, the Blazers were just 5 of 29 from behind the arc. I expect a bounce back here. Take the points. Washington has been quite the disappointment so far this season. With them, I keep coming back to the pledge to play at a faster tempo, a change that has not really worked for the better. While playing at the league's fifth fastest pace, they are tied for only 14th in offensive efficiency and defensively they have been downright awful, giving up an average of 104.1 PPG for the season. Saturday saw the Wizards drop a home game to Boston, 119-117, as Bradley Beal sat out after making his return from a 16-game absence the previous night in Indiana. Beal is expected to play here, but there are other injuries the team is dealing with right now. I also don't know how long HC Randy Wittman is for this job. Portland goes as Lillard goes with the point guard averaging 27.9 PPG in their wins. When he shoots below 38 percent from the field, the team is winless (0-12) w/ him averaging just 18.3 PPG. Coming off the subpar effort in Philadelphia, I expect a return to form here against a poor defensive club. I really don't think that the Wizards deserve to be in this price range against most teams as they actually have a losing SU record (9-12) at home this year. Opponents are shooting nearly 40 percent from three-point range against the Wizards here at home this season. 8* Portland |
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01-17-16 | Southern Illinois v. Drake +4 | Top | 81-76 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
8* Drake (4:00 ET): This line looks a little bit curious, no? Southern Illinois comes in at 15-3 SU (7-1 on the road!), but are laying just a short number to a Drake team that has lost five in a row (just 5-12 SU for the season), four of those coming by double digits. For a lot of people, I think the natural inclination would be to back the short road favorite, but as regular readers/clients will tell you, I'm not "most people." I see some value with Drake here as SIU has been favored in only four of its last nine games and three of those times they did not cover. That includes an ugly outright loss to SIU-Edwardsville plus a non-cover last time out vs. Illinois State. Drake has not shot the ball well of late, but remains at 51.2 percent from the field at home for the year. Take the points. Drake played its last two games on the road and was blown out both times, first by Northern Iowa and then by Evansville. They are now the only team in the Missouri Valley w/o a league win after both Bradley and Loyola pulled upsets in their last games. Despite the 0-5 start in MVC play, the Bulldogs are still only being outscored by 2.5 points per game on the season. Their scoring average has dipped to an awful 57.4 PPG in conference play, but that number is only going to go up as they had to face both Wichita State and Northern Iowa on the road and were held to only 91 points total. This is a team that stayed w/ Iowa (lost by only six) on a neutral floor last month. Two of Southern Illinois' losses this season were close - by five (UTEP) and two (SIU-Edwardsville). But overall, the Salukis have excelled in close games this season w/ six wins by five points or less, including five of them by three points or less. Their "luck" is eventually bound to run out and there is the fact they were blown out on their own floor, 83-58, by Wichita State just two games ago. Tuesday vs. Illinois State, they trailed by as many as 12 in the second half before rallying back and winning the game on a three-pointer w/ just 24 seconds left. The home team won both meetings between these two last season and I see Drake possessing what is the great equalizer if you're an underdog and that's three-point shooting. The Bulldogs are 43.4 percent for the year from behind the arc at home. Look them to regain their "lost" shooting touch in this upset bid. 8* Drake |
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01-16-16 | Bucks v. Hornets -6 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Despite an outright win here at home over Atlanta (as a 3-pt dog) earlier in the week, the Hornets remain a solid value tonight, even as a favorite. Milwaukee played last night and while they ended up with a nice win themselves over the Hawks, the game did go into overtime. The Bucks actually trailed by as many as 11, at home, so it wasn't nearly as impressive as what Charlotte did to Atlanta, which was win by 23. Now the Hornets also played last night and lost - by two - at New Orleans as Anthony Davis won the game on a dunk w/ just two seconds left. Despite it being their eighth loss in the last nine games, my personal power rankings suggest that this line should be closer to double digits. Lay the points. The Bucks are not a good road team. They've gone 5-18 SU away from home while being outscored by 9.6 points per game. While the team has covered four of its last five overall, they dropped both road games during that span, straight up. Defense is an issue here as Milwaukee gives up 105.6 PPG on the road. However, it was a lack of offense that burned them in their previous visit to Charlotte this season. They were held to just 82 points - their second lowest total in any game this season. While the Bucks still covered (were +6.5), it was the eighth time in the last nine matchups with the Hornets that they came out on the short end of the stick. Defense is typically not a concern for Charlotte as they are allowing just 97.9 PPG here at home. Though both teams played last night, I believe that fatigue will be more of a factor of Milwaukee. Giannis Antetokounmpo may have grabbed a career-high 16 rebounds last night, but he played a career-high 50 minutes as well. For the third straight game, Khris Middleton played more than 40 minutes. Being the road team puts the Bucks at an even greater disadvantage. Charlotte is a strong 14-7 SU at home this season and a perfect 3-0 against the spread as a favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. With Nic Batum back in the lineup, their rotation isn't quite as strained as the Bucks is right now. The Hornets actually outscored the Pelicans in three of the four quarters last night. Only two of their players logged more than 30 minutes. The situation definitely favors them here. 10* Charlotte |
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01-16-16 | Northern Illinois v. Western Michigan -1 | Top | 69-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
10* Western Michigan (7:00 ET): This is yet another classic situation where we "buy low" on a team coming off an outright loss as a favorite while at the same time "sell high" on the opponent which is coming off a SU win as a dog. Western Michigan, as a three-point home favorite, lost to Ball State on Tuesday. It was their third consecutive loss and the second in a row where they shot quite poorly. In addition to finishing the game at only 36.5% from the field, they allowed Ball State to connect on a 51.9% clip. Meanwhile, Northern Illinois is off a somewhat notable upset of Toledo as 6.5-point dogs. They are the only team in the MAC w/o a conference loss (14-2 SU overall), but the Huskies are due to fall. Lay a very short number. Historically speaking, this game being in Kalamazoo is a huge edge for WMU. Northern Illinois has won just ONE time here since 1997 (in 17 tries). While only 5-3 SU at home this year, WMU is averaging 82.1 points per game here. That's a little skewed due to a blowout of a non-board team (Marygrove), but note this team has suffered a number of close losses w/ most of them coming here at University Arena. The Broncos are 2-6 SU this season in games decided by six points or less w/ a trio of three-point home losses to Kent State (in overtime), IUPUI-Ft Wayne (also in OT) and Mercer. Simply put, they are long overdue to have one "go their way." Considering they've won 10 of 11 overall against NIU, now seems like that time. This will be NIU's second road game of the week, always a tough spot, and made tougher by the fact that WMU is playing its second straight home game. I think the line speaks volumes here considering the respective records. Northern Illinois has benefited greatly from poor shooting by their opponents this season (just 37.6% overall) but they themselves haven't shot well outside of DeKalb (36.5% overall). They were better than that against Toledo on Tuesday, but Western Michigan is connecting at a 46.6% clip here at home this season. Again, this is a classic case of perception not being reality and I have the Broncos rolling to a much deserved win and cover. 10* Western Michigan |
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01-16-16 | Alabama v. Vanderbilt -11 | Top | 63-71 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
10* Vanderbilt (6:00 ET): I think it's safe to say that Vandy is a team that has not performed up to expectations thus far. The Commies are just 9-7 SU with six of those losses coming in the last nine games. Yet, somewhat surprisingly, they still own a 7-3 ATS record as a favorite after a 75-57 beatdown of Auburn earlier this week. This team is absolutely better than its record shows as they have a +20.6 PPG scoring margin here at home. Having big man Luke Kornet back in the fold now makes them all the more dangerous. He delivered a triple double Tuesday (w/ 10 blocks!). I think its important to remember that this Vandy team was picked to finish second in the SEC this year. Despite what looks like a big number to lay, this is actually a "buy low" spot on the Commodores. Alabama comes in fresh off an upset of previously undefeated South Carolina. That of course only serves to inflate their own value. The Crimson Tide is having quite the week, but a 23-point win as four-point home underdogs usually is a clear signal that a letdown spot is on the horizon. The fact that South Carolina was one of just two unbeatens left in the country was a surprise, but the fact is that the Gamecocks came out somewhat flat on Wednesday and shot only 35.8% for the game including an awful 3 of 18 from three-point range. At the same time, the Tide opened the game by making their first seven attempts from behind the arc and finished 13 of 28. Bama has been fortunate so far this season in the sense that all five games they've played against ranked teams have come in Tuscaloosa. Note that early in the season, they were destroyed (by 32!) at Dayton. They are averaging just 59.2 PPG away from home. Vandy had lost three in a row prior to blowing out Auburn. However, all three losses and for that matter all but one of the team's losses this year have been close. The one exception came at Purdue. Alabama is a team they beat twice last year. Again, looking at the numbers, it's hard to see how this team is only 9-7 straight up. They are shooting 47.1% from the field this season (40.2% from three-point range) and both of those numbers go up here at Memorial Gyn. At the same time, they are holding opponents to just 37% overall shooting including 27% from three-point range. 10* Vanderbilt |
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01-16-16 | Xavier v. Marquette +6.5 | Top | 74-66 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
8* Marquette (2:00 ET): Xavier still only has one loss, though it was an ugly one New Year's Eve when I decided to go against them and lay the points with Villanova (lost by 31!). Since the New Year, the 7th ranked Musketeers have gone 3-0 straight up, twice delivering a double digit victory at home. But the one road game was a little closer than expected and that was against lowly St. John's. In fact, one could argue that none of Xavier's performances in "true" road games since destroying Michigan early in the year have been impressive. Not only did they beat a bad St. John's team by just six points (laying 15), as mentioned earlier they were crushed by Villanova and they were also lucky to get by Wake Forest (trailed by as many as 18). I see this game at Marquette being a bigger challenge than expected. Take the points. Now a case could be made that Marquette should feel pretty fortunate to be 12-5 SU right now. They are a perfect 6-0 straight up in games decided by six points or less since losing the season opener to Belmont, 85-83, and that includes their own narrow win over St. John's here at home. By not covering the spread in that game, the Golden Eagles are now a lousy 12-28 ATS their L40 home games, including 2-8 this season. They are off a 15-point loss at Villanova, but let us not forget this is a team that owns outright upsets on the road over Providence, LSU and Wisconsin. This will be the first time all season that they have taken points at home and I'm sure the players remember last year's ugly 64-44 home loss to Xavier as they were held to 34.6% shooting including 3 of 15 from three-point range. I'm calling for a bounce back in this spot. Against Villanova, Marquette actually led at the half despite trailing by as many as 16 early on in the game. They did manage to cover as big 18-point underdogs. Offensively, they should be able to hang w/ Xavier here as they average 81.3 points per game here at home. Much will be made of the fact that the Musketeers are getting back starting PG Edmond Sumner. But news like that often serves to inflate the number and that's what we have here. Xavier has most likely reached its apex and I really don't see them climbing any higher than they already are. Marquette, despite what happened against 'Nova earlier in the week, seems to be getting a little better. They are 5-2 ATS as an underdog this year, taking four of those games outright. They have the kind of size up front that can give Xavier all sorts of trouble. 8* Marquette |
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01-15-16 | Heat -2 v. Nuggets | Top | 98-95 | Win | 100 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
10* Miami (9:05 ET): A trip out West has been unkind to the Heat as they've dropped three of four, the only win coming at the expense of an awful Phoenix team. Before this trip got underway, no team had played fewer road games this season than had Miami (only 12!). But, at least as far as the last two games are concerned, it's been a high quality of opponent that they've faced (Warriors, Clippers). That will not be the case here as they continue the trek in Denver, facing a Nuggets team that will be in a clear letdown spot coming off its shocking win over Golden State the other night. Despite that win, Denver remains one of the worst teams in the league and they are 3-7 ATS coming off a SU win as an underdog. Lay the short number. Defensively, this game shapes up as a mismatch. Prior to the start of this road trip, only San Antonio, who is on a historic pace (see yday's analysis for Cavs-Spurs - I had the Under), had been more efficient than Miami at that end of the court. The Heat allow just 95.5 points per game, so the last two games have seen them give up far more than they typically allow, but that's predictable considering the opponents they faced. Denver shocked everyone w/ the 112-110 win over the Warriors on Wednesday. But consider that in their three games previous, they had been averaging just 85.7 points per game! Getting back to defense, the Nuggets are bottom six in terms of efficiency and allow 104.3 PPG here at home. Denver has won three of its last four, but every win has been by four points or fewer. Remember when this team had one of the strongest home court edges in the league? That's not the case anymore as they are just 7-11 straight up in the Pepsi Center and 6-11 against the spread. Somehow they beat the Warriors despite shooting only 42.5 percent from the field (were 5 for 22 from three-point range!). Lately, their shooting has been poor (39.5% L4 games), so it's very surprising that they've been able to win multiple games. They have benefited from their opponents not shooting well either (39.9% L4 games) and by dominating the glass. But Miami shoots the ball pretty well (46.1% overall) and is just as strong on the glass as the Nuggets are (teams are roughly equal in rebound rate). I look for them (the Heat) to bounce back. 10* Miami |
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01-15-16 | Wolves +13 v. Thunder | Top | 93-113 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 24 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (7:05 ET): The T'wolves are in a really bad way right now as they've lost eight in a row (and 12 of their last 13!), but because this is a rare national TV appearance for them, I don't think that motivation will be any kind of issue. There are also signs of them slowly but surely turning things around. This is actually the second game of a home and home between them and the Thunder and while OKC won the first meeting (in Minnesota), it was the T'wolves leaving "with the cash" as 10.5-pt underdogs (only lost by five). Both teams then had to play the following night. Minnesota covered again, this time as 7.5-pt dog in Houston (lost by only three) while OKC absolutely crushed Dallas, 108-89, taking advantage of the fact that the Mavs were resting starters (had lost in OT the previous night). I say take the points yet again w/ a desperate Minnesota team that has been much better on the road than at home this year. While a disastrous 4-17-1 ATS at home, on the road the T'wolves are a very respectable 12-6 ATS, not to mention 7-11 straight up. It's a matter of taking more points obviously, something that is of great benefit to a team that's been averaging only 92.0 PPG its last five. But they did score 104 the other night in Houston and average 101.7 PPG for the year away from home. Oklahoma City isn't great defensively (allowing 100.8 PPG at home) and this is a big number they're being asked to lay here. I was on Minnesota in that first matchup three days ago and remember in the analysis I talked about how poor the Thunder have been against the spread when favored. They're now 14-21 vs. the number in that role and have the worst overall ATS record in the league. That includes 4-14 when facing a team w/ a losing record. Minnesota did fall behind by as many as 18 on Tuesday, but a strong finish had them easily inside the number by game's end. What they need to do here is take more three-pointers. They are last in the league in attempts from behind the arc. Oklahoma City has really benefited from some poor shooting by their opponents (41.6 percent overall) their last seven games, but the T'wolves were above that on Tuesday and then even a little sharper in Houston. The Thunder, just 4-10 ATS this year when off a double digit win, are overvalued in this spot. 10* Minnesota |
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01-15-16 | Niagara v. Fairfield -8.5 | Top | 68-73 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
8* Fairfield (7:00 ET): I'm not sure what happened to the Stags in the second half in Monday's 86-74 home loss to Monmouth. They led going into the half - by seven - but then the Hawks couldn't miss, outscoring them 46-27 the rest of the way. It was the three point shot in particular that doomed Fairfield as Monmouth was 12 of 24 for the game from behind the arc. The Stags actually made 12 three-pointers themselves (on 29 attempts) and shot 50% overall. But curiously, they got to the FT line one LESS time than their opponent, which is odd when you're at home. Despite some recent defensive issues, I look for the Stags to bounce back tonight as they're at home again. They haven't dropped B2B games since opening the season 0-3, a stretch that included a game at North Carolina. Lay the points. Niagara, on the other hand, is off a very different kind of result than Fairfield. They upset Manhattan on Saturday, 55-53 as 2.5-pt dogs, on a last second tip-in. Even more fortunate for the Purple Eagles there is the fact that Manhattan's final attempt - a three-pointer which went in - came after the final buzzer had sounded. That upset came on the heels of another two point win where Niagara was again the dog as they beat St. Peter's 63-61, a game in which they led almost the whole way, save for 30 seconds late in the second half. But both of those wins came at home for the Purple Eagles. On the road, they are a pretty woeful 1-9 straight up and as you can tell they don't score much, averaging just 62.8 PPG for the year. This is a double revenge spot for Fairfield, who lost both meetings LY vs. Niagara, which were decided by a total of three points. There is no doubt that the Stags come in as the better team this year, particularly offensively as they are averaging 81.1 PPG here at home where they are 5-2 SU for the season. Prior to pulling those B2B upsets, Niagara was just 3-12 (SU) overall. While they've done well as an underdog (9-2 ATS) this year, the fact is this line is too short as Fairfield should bounce back from a tough defeat and gain a measure of revenge for last season. 8* Fairfield |
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01-14-16 | Washington v. Arizona -12.5 | Top | 67-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
8* Arizona (9:00 ET): Arizona drew somewhat of a "short straw" as they opened Pac 12 play w/ three consecutive road games, the last two of which resulted in narrow losses. Last Thursday saw them rally back from a 14-point second half deficit at UCLA, only to lose on a Bryce Alford three-pointer w/ 1.8 seconds remaining. Two days later, the dreaded second road game in three nights became even more of a challenge as the Wildcats game at USC went to four overtimes and ended up 103-101 not in their favor. Still ranked 18th in the country, I expect Sean Miller's team to bounce back tonight in their long-awaited return to Tucson. They are an incredible 44-0 straight up here at the McKale Center the L3 seasons (nation's longest home win streak), winning by an impressive average of 22.2 points per game. Lay the number. Now you might be concerned about laying double digits to a Washington team that's 3-0 SU in Pac 12 play, especially considering Arizona is now w/o its star freshman Allonzo Trier. But, make no mistake about it, this is a case of "buying low" on Arizona and "selling high" on Washington. The latter may be unbeaten in conference play so far, but all three wins have been by four points or less and two went to overtime. The other saw them rally back from a 22-point deficit, at home, against USC. So the Huskies could just as easily be 0-3 SU in three games where they were a slight dog each time. Despite all the OT periods, defense still has to be a concern for this team. They have allowed at least 83 pts in five of their last six games, one of those being an outright loss to Oakland as 11-pt home favorites. Arizona had been allowing just 61.3 PPG prior to conference play getting underway and I expect them to "tighten the screws" now that they're back at home. Washington has been able to get away w/ some pretty lousy shooting this year (just 38.5% from the field in conference play), particularly from three-point range when they're away from home (29.4%). But that won't be the case here. 'Zona destroyed them last year, up in Seattle, winning by 24 points as 11-pt chalk. Due to recent form, the favorite comes in greatly undervalued for this one. 8* Arizona |
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01-14-16 | Pittsburgh v. Louisville -7 | Top | 41-59 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
8* Louisville (9:00 ET): After rolling through non-conference play w/ the best scoring differential in the country, Rick Pitino's Louisville team has struggled a bit of late. It started the day after X-Mas, in the final non-conference game of the year, a two-point loss to Kentucky. The final score there somewhat undersells how poorly the Cardinals played as they trailed by double digits in the second half and it bears mentioning that UK is clearly "down" this year. L'ville rebounded w/ B2B close victories to open ACC play, but then lost again Sunday, this time at Clemson, 66-62 as seven-point favorites. But that loss no longer looks as bad after the Tigers beat Duke yday. Welcoming in a Pitt team that's off a SU win as an underdog (over Notre Dame), I feel all the value is on the Cardinals tonight. Lay the points. In 11 home games, L'ville has outscored its opponents by a whopping 32.2 points per game. Granted, there's some pretty weak competition mixed in there. But that's still really impressive scoring differential to own and following five consecutive ATS defeats, I look for the Cards to get back to business here in a battle of ranked teams. The team had an "off-shooting" day against Clemson on Sunday as they were just 35.3 percent from the field (3 for 23 from 3pt range!), which nullified another strong effort on the defensive end where they allowed the Tigers to shoot only 32.6% for the game. They also dominated on the glass w/ a 53-31 rebounding edge. But what ended up being the difference was a massive 44-16 edge in free throw attempts for Clemson. Talk about some "home cooking!" Now Louisville is the home team and here they are allowing just 54.5 PPG. So, this will definitely be the stiffest test yet for a Pitt team that is averaging 85.3 PPG. As far as "true" road games go, this will only be the Panthers' second. The first came Saturday in South Bend when they upset Notre Dame thanks to a season-high 10 three-pointers made. This is also the best free throw shooting team in the country right now. Yet, it is Louisville that owns the distinction of being the ONLY team in the country to rate in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Despite recent results, they are going to be just fine moving forward. 8* Louisville |
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01-13-16 | Georgia Tech v. Notre Dame -6.5 | Top | 64-72 | Win | 100 | 19 h 60 m | Show |
10* Notre Dame (9:00 ET): Remember when the Fighting Irish used to be unbeatable here in South Bend under HC Mike Brey? Here, they are coming off an 86-82 home loss to Pittsburgh over the weekend and while it was their first loss of the season at Purcell Pavillion, Notre Dame is now just 10-23 ATS its L33 home games. I look for them to get back on track tonight though against a Georgia Tech team that's probably feeling a little too good about itself following a 68-64 upset of Virginia (were 6-pt dogs) on Saturday. The Yellow Jackets are 3-0 ATS in ACC play, but lost at both North Carolina and Pittsburgh. In fact, the final score vs. Pittsburgh was nearly identical to Notre Dame's result against the Panthers. Lay the points. Overall, the Fighting Irish are just 3-3 straight up and 1-5 against the spread their last six games. In addition to losing to Pitt, they've also fallen to Indiana (neutral court) and at Virginia. But there's really no shame in any of the three SU losses and the team is still averaging 83.1 PPG at home this season. They shot the ball well against Pitt (54.2 FG%) and in fact are one of the better shooting teams in the entire country at 50.6 percent (5th). They shot 62.3 percent in a road win over Boston College last week and I think that the Fighting Irish will find much success offensively against a Yellow Jackets team that's permitting an average of 76.7 points in six games outside of Atlanta this year. Defensively then, Notre Dame obviously has issues. The primary one is that visiting teams have been able to come in and connect on 41.3 percent of their three-point attempts. That can't continue. The offensive vs. defensive dichotomy under Brey has always been quite striking, but I'm not sure it's ever been as pronounced this year as KenPom has the Irish rate 3rd in adjusted offensive efficiency, but 214th in adjusted defensive efficiency. That's pretty insane. Nevertheless, Georgia Tech is off perhaps its biggest ACC win in five seasons under HC Brian Gregory and will be in full letdown mode here. This is a much cheaper price than what ND was asked to lay last year when the Yellow Jackets visited. 10* Notre Dame |
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01-13-16 | Knicks v. Nets +3.5 | Top | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): Despite losing Carmelo Anthony to a sprained ankle early in the second half, the Knicks somehow pulled out a fifth victory in six games (6-0 ATS) last night, beating Boston 120-114. I'm not ashamed to admit that I was on the Celtics there and making things all the more head-scratching is that rookie Kristaps Porzingis battled foul trouble for much of the game. Though I was on New York earlier in the year when they blew out Brooklyn, I'm going "the other way" here as the Knicks are now being asked to lay more points on the road than they were at home in that 108-91 victory last month. Plus, the potential loss of Anthony will be difficult to overcome. Take the points. While the Knicks have been trending in a positive direction, it's a much different feel a borough away as Brooklyn has hit rock bottom. With their future looking rather bleak, the Nets decided to fire HC Lionel Hollins and GM Billy King earlier this week. Who can blame them? The team has lost five straight - both SU and ATS - and were double digit dogs in the last two. They were unfortunate to draw San Antonio in the first game after the changes were made as typically you'll see a temporary spike in play when a team makes a coaching change. The Nets certainly weren't going to beat the Spurs, but I feel they can beat the Knicks as they are catching them at an opportune time. There may be no Anthony and it's the second game of a back to back. Thus, I don't think anyone would fault New York if they didn't have their 'A game.' Brooklyn, on the other hand, needs to show a little fire in the wake of the organizational changes. The Knicks haven't been particularly good when playing w/o rest, going 3-5 straight up in that situation this year and the one time they went from home to away, they lost by 15 points. If Anthony can't go here (and I suspect he will not), that's 21.6 points per game (highest average on team) gone from the lineup. This will only be the third time all season that the Knicks will be a road favorite. The Nets have somehow managed to lose 10 in a row at home, so again, they should be motivated in this spot. 10* Brooklyn |
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01-13-16 | Hawks v. Hornets +2.5 | Top | 84-107 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Early in the season, the Hornets had been one of the real surprises in the league. As recently as three weeks ago, only four teams in the league were outscoring their opponents by larger margin per 100 possessions. However, 2016 has been somewhat of a disaster. They've lost every game in the new year while at the same time going 1-5 against the spread. Overall, they are just 2-10 SU/ATS their L12 games. The biggest issue during the slide has been defense, or rather a lack of it, as five straight teams topped 100 points against them before losses to the Clippers and Nuggets at the end of a four-game West Coast swing. But, with them having two days off and back at home, I'm going to call for a bounce back here as Nic Batum (second leading scorer) has returned. Charlotte's home record is still 13-7 straight up. Take the points. Atlanta has beaten Charlotte twice this year, but both games were decided by three points or less. The Hornets did not shoot the ball well either time. It was a home & home very early in the season and in Atlanta, they were at 40.9 percent from the field. Two days later, here at home, they were at 37.2 percent. Interestingly, they shot well from three-point range (26 of 67) so that means they were a somewhat unfathomable 42 of 107 on two-point attempts. Now with Batum back in the fold, I'd expect a much higher percentage tonight. For the season, the team averages 103.1 PPG here at home. They've had an adequate time to recover from the West Coast trip as well and are 4-2 ATS this season when playing w/ exactly two days rest. The Hawks were lights out from the field in recent victories over the Sixers and Bulls. Both games were decided by double digits and saw the Hawks shoot better than 52 percent while averaging 123 PPG. It's only natural for them to come back down to Earth. At the same time, Charlotte has been below 37 percent shooting its last two games, so that's another case that they're due to turn it around offensively. But defense may be the deciding factor here. The Hornets are still only allowing 98.6 PPG at home. Over the L5 games, the Hawks are giving up 107.2! 8* Charlotte |
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01-12-16 | New Mexico v. UNLV -6 | Top | 74-86 | Win | 100 | 20 h 2 m | Show |
8* UNLV (10:00 ET): So, UNLV has fired Dave Rice. I suppose given how much the Rebels are underachieving this year, the news shouldn't be too big of a shock. Taking over a team that has lost three in a row, interim HC Todd Simon has a tall - and perhaps unenviable - task ahead of him, but I feel that tonight is an excellent "buy low" opportunity on the team at home. Consider that all three recent Rebels' losses were by three points or less, the last two coming on the road. They are seven points away from being 3-0 instead of 0-3 SU in Mountain West play and obviously we'd be having a much different conversation as Rice would still be employed. Look for the Rebels to come out and play inspired ball tonight in Vegas. Lay the points. The home court edge has not meant much in recent UNLV-New Mexico matchups w/ the road team winning outright all four times the past two seasons. But to me, that's all the more reason to believe that the home team will turn it around here. New Mexico is just 2-1 on the road and while they won their last away game, 77-62 as five-point dogs at Fresno State, they did lose at both Purdue and USC while surrendering an average of 80 PPG. The Lobos are likely feeling pretty good about themselves right about now as they rolled to a 77-59 win over Utah State in Albuquerque Saturday. But not only did they shoot the ball well in that game, their opponents were a pretty woeful 34.3% from the field including 6 for 29 from three-point range. That was a 43-18 game at halftime as USU went 10 minutes w/o a field goal in the first half. Impressive as it sounds, I just don't believe that performance is indicative of what you should be expecting from this Lobos team. UNLV has talent; there's no denying that. Rice brought in B2B strong recruiting classes, including NBA prospect Stephen Zimmerman. But the freshman has struggled a bit and for some reason is only sixth on the team in FG attempts. One issue Rice had was managing his rotation. Look for that to be a point of emphasis for Simon and I expect Zimmerman to shoot more moving forward. Though they've already lost outright four times as a favorite, UNLV can absolutely salvage this season and it starts tonight. 8* UNLV |
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01-12-16 | Thunder v. Wolves +11 | Top | 101-96 | Win | 100 | 18 h 9 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): What's that Albert Einstein quote regarding insanity? I feel I'm approaching that point here w/ the T'wolves, who are an unfathomable 3-17-1 ATS at home this year. I've been on the wrong end of a number of those losses of late, though they were close on Sunday as they lost here to Dallas by only six points, getting four. Still though, I'm not sure if I've ever seen any NBA team perform so poorly against the pointspread on its home floor. As I've written about previously, the "worm is likely to turn" as the oddsmakers become more generous, like they are here w/ Oklahoma City coming to town. The Thunder have their own pointspread woes to be concerned over as like Minnesota they're only 14-23-1 ATS for the year (tied for league worst) and that includes a 13-20 mark when favored. Take the points here as Minnesota is well overdue to cover. The Thunder are off a bad 115-100 loss in Portland their last time out as they blew an eight-point lead w/ just over three minutes remaining. Part of that was the Blazers connecting on 19 three-pointers, which wouldn't seem to be a concern here as Minnesota is attempting the fewest number of 3PA in the league. But the fact remains that since X-Mas, OKC has covered just two of nine games. This is their third road game in five night and they have a home game vs. Dallas tomorrow. Defensively, they have issues as they are allowing 103.1 PPG on the road, including 114 PPG on the current trip. Those games, against the Lakers & Blazers, are ones where you'd think the Thunder would win convincingly, but alas they did not. OKC is 1-7 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite this year + 4-13 ATS when facing a team w/ a losing record. Minnesota clearly needs to start taking more threes as overall they are averaging a pretty woeful 88.8 PPG their last five. They've gone 0-6 straight up and against the spread their last six and dropped 10 of 11 overall SU (2-9 ATS). As bad as things have been, two of their last three losses did come by six points or less and they did cover a game at San Antonio late last month. You have to imagine that they'll start to play better at home (can't be any worse) and I say it starts tonight where they'll stay inside the number. 8* Minnesota |
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01-12-16 | Celtics +2 v. Knicks | Top | 114-120 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
10* Boston (7:35 ET): I won't hesitate to say that the Celtics are better than their record. Despite currently being in ninth place in the East, they have the Conference's fourth best point differential. What has hurt them is a league-worst 0-5 SU mark in games decided by three points or less, the latest loss coming Sunday in Memphis where they blew a 21-point third quarter lead in Brad Stevens' return to the bench. The final score was 101-98 and it was Boston's fifth loss in the last six games overall. Perception has started to swing against them, but I feel that makes this is an excellent "buy low" spot as they are an underdog at the Knicks, a distinction that my own power rankings would disagree with. Take the points. New York has covered five in a row (4-1 SU) and their only SU loss during that time came by a single point at San Antonio. They are much improved this year, but keep in mind they'd lost five of six themselves before this current streak got underway. Boston took three of the four meetings last season as well as the first this season, 100-91 as 8.5-point favorites. That number right there, as well as the result, indicate that there is indeed a value we're getting w/ the Celtics on the road here. The Knicks did win three in a row as underdogs here in 2016 and then bounced back from the loss to San Antonio by downing Milwaukee, 100-88. They've averaged 103.0 PPG on 48 percent shooting these last five games, which is noticeably above their season averages, so I'd expect them to start coming back down to Earth. Defensively, the Knicks have allowed just 95.2 PPG over their last five, which is also significantly better than their season average. But Boston is due for a turnaround offensively as this marks the first time all season that they have failed to score 100+ points in three consecutive games. It's also the third time the C's have been on a three-game losing streak. They are 2-0 SU/ATS in this spot previously, having beaten Washington and Minnesota by an average of 17 PPG. Again, they led the Grizzlies by 21, in Memphis, on Sunday. Avery Bradley is back in the lineup and this is a team likely to turn things around. 10* Boston |
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01-12-16 | Miami (Fla) v. Virginia -4 | Top | 58-66 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
10* Virginia (7:00 ET): The 13th ranked Cavaliers have dropped two in a row, both as favorites, on the road. First it was at Virginia Tech, 70-68, as 12.5-pt chalk. Then, 68-64 at Georgia Tech as a six-point choice. This is the first time since 2013-14 that Tony Bennett's team has lost consecutive games. Between then and now, they had been a perfect 8-0 straight up coming off a loss w/ every victory coming by a double digit margin. I was surprised to find that it was UVA's defense that really let them down against Va and Ga Tech. They allowed 66 points per game, which doesn't sound like much, but that's six PPG more than their season average. Tonight, the Hoos return home (where they are 7-0 SU) to host Miami in a crucial ACC battle and I think they'll be up for the challenge. Lay the points. Miami hasn't lost since the end of November when they shockingly fell at the buzzer to Northeastern as 16-pt home faves. That's their only loss. They've won eight in a row including B2B 13-point victories (at home) over Syracuse and Florida State to open ACC play. They've averaged a whopping 90 PPG on the road, which is unsustainable, particularly considering tonight marks just their second "true" road game of the season (that scoring average includes four neutral site games as well). The Canes did not fare well in their last visit to Charlottesville (lost by 25) and then last year fell to the Hoos by nine at home. Over the L3 seasons, the U is actually just 8-12 SU/8-11-1 ATS off an ACC win. This Virginia team has many impressive wins on its resume. Remember that they beat both Villanova and West Virginia by double digits. They haven't rebounded well in the B2B losses and I feel will be a desperate team coming into tonight's game. They remain in the top 10 in the country in scoring defense (60.9 PPG) and assist to turnover ratio. Offensively, the team also shoots the ball quite well; 49% overall including 39% from three-point range. It was a combination of an off-shooting night and Georgia Tech going 8 for 15 from 3-pt range themselves Saturday. Facing what would be their first three-game losing streak in five years, Virginia will come out strong here. 10* Virginia |
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01-11-16 | Heat +12.5 v. Warriors | Top | 103-111 | Win | 100 | 22 h 4 m | Show |
8* Miami (10:35 ET): I do not anticipate the Heat getting "blown out" here. By the rankings, they will be one of the toughest opponents that Golden State will have faced all season. I currently have Miami rated sixth in my own personal power rankings and aside from a visit to San Antonio, they won't be getting even close to this many points in a game all season. While that's obviously true for any team visiting the Warriors, the difference here is the Heat can actually do something about it. They are top six in the league in terms of defensive efficiency and give up just 93.4 points per game on the road. While 9-0 straight up, Golden State is only 5-4 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points and this is the best opponent they have faced when laying that many all season. Take the points. Coming off an ugly 98-83 loss at Utah (no rest) Saturday night, I anticipate Miami being highly motivated. While it's true that they've played the fewest number of road games in the league thus far - just 14 - it's also true that they've been an underdog just seven times previously and are a respectable 3-4 straight up in those games. They are also 7-7 SU on the road and basically dead even in pts scored vs. allowed. They'll clearly have to be better offensively than they were at Utah, which is likely as Dwyane Wade was just 3 for 17 from the field in that game. As a team, they have alternated good and bad offensive showings over the L7 games and haven't gone B2B games w/o scoring 100+ points since before Christmas. The Heat have fared well vs. the West this year (11-3 SU/8-5-1 ATS) and are 7-3 straight up following a SU loss as a favorite (6-4 ATS). Golden State is rolling again as they've won six in a row; the last three coming on the road by a combined 53 points. But the competition there was weak as the Lakers, Portland and Sacramento are all below .500. In fact, this will be the Warriors first game against a team currently sporting a better than .500 record since the loss to Dallas on December 30th. They haven't lost at home this year and have an impressive scoring margin here, but are only 5-7 ATS vs. the Eastern Conference. This will be a tough game for the defending champs. 8* Miami |
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01-11-16 | Chattanooga -2.5 v. Wofford | Top | 77-68 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
10* Chattanooga (6:00 ET): This shapes up as a big game in the Southern Conference as the preseason favorite (Chattanooga) is off a loss and in danger of falling two games back in the standings of tonight's opponent, Wofford. The Mocs are still favored though, and for good reason, as before being upset at Furman Saturday, they'd won eight in a row and were 13-2 SU overall for the season. They hold wins over Illinois, Georgia and Dayton. As fired up as Wofford might be for this game, they come in off a very fortunate win and simply aren't getting enough "help" from the linesmakers to entice me here as their 5-20 straight up record as an underdog (0-7 SU/1-6 ATS this season) speaks volumes. Lay the points. Chattanooga is 11-0 SU this season when scoring 70+ points. They were held to only 55 in Saturday's loss to Furman as they shot just 42.6 percent from the field and were outrebounded. They also turned the ball over 20 times and were just 9 for 19 from the free throw line (71% FT shooting team). Something to keep in mind here is that the Mocs are 6-2 straight up the previous two seasons coming off a conference loss. The road team has actually won three straight in this SoCon rivalry w/ UTC winning each of the last two years here in Spartanburg. In fact, UTC has led Wofford for a total of 127:11 (out of a possible 160 minutes) of game time the four meetings overall, so they've had their number. Wofford was lucky to win its last time out. They trailed Samford by nine w/ just over two minutes remaining, but closed the game on a stunning 14-0 run to not only win the game, but leave w/ the cash (as 4.5-pt favorites) as well. The Terriers still have a losing record (6-9 SU), however, and had lost four in a row prior to the start of conference play. That's in stark contrast to the way UTC largely dominated it's non-conference slate of games. One might point to the continued absence of reigning SoCon Player of the Year Casey Jones as the reason the Mocs lost to Furman, but they were w/o him when they went into Dayton and won outright as 12.5-pt pups. Simply put, this is the best team in their league and they should bounce back from a rare defeat. 10* Chattanooga |
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01-10-16 | Mavs v. Wolves +4.5 | Top | 93-87 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (5:05 ET): Here we go again. "Chasing" is never good, but the bottom line is that the T'wolves HAVE to begin to improve upon this woeful 3-16-1 ATS home record of theirs and this is yet another instance where my own personal power rankings indicate they are a strong value. The team has lost 9 of 10 overall (2-8 ATS) as they ran into a buzzsaw known as Cleveland Friday night and the Cavs couldn't miss, hitting 53.1 percent of their shots in a 125-99 romp. The game prior, it was Minnesota's offense that let them down as they held Denver to 35.8% percent shooting, yet lost 78-74 due to a nine-point fourth quarter. This evening, I'll call for them to "put it all together," finally. Take the points. Dallas also comes in off a loss, one that came in rather heartbreaking fashion, as they lost at the buzzer in Milwaukee Friday night. After a strong finish to December, that marked the fourth time in the last five games where the Mavs failed to cover as they barely led after an 18-point first quarter. They certainly weren't afraid to hoist three-point shots (NBA season-high 44 attempts!) in their last game, so it's pretty disappointing that they still only scored 95 points. At just 10-10 straight up, this team is pretty mediocre on the road, and overall they are outscoring foes by less than one point per game this season. Defensively, the Mavs are allowing 102.9 points per game on the road. As they figure to face a three-point barrage, Minnesota must tighten up defensively in this one. Opponents are making 37.3 percent of their three-point attempts the L10 games against this team w/ Cleveland going 13 of 27 Friday. But a lot of those were well defended shots made by good shooters (JR Smith made seven). As rough as things have been of late, the T'wolves are still only being outscored by less than four points per 100 possessions and you have to think that they're at least due to start covering some of these home games. No other team in the league is even close to as bad at the betting window at home as the T'wolves are. But they'd actually been favored in a surprising number of games recently and I believe getting points, they are a solid value. 10* Minnesota |
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01-10-16 | Louisville -6.5 v. Clemson | Top | 62-66 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
8* Louisville (12:00 ET): Clemson has opened ACC play in a quite profitable way. The Tigers have covered all three league games so far, including B2B outright upsets of Florida State and Syracuse (were also 15.5 pt dogs against UNC). It'll be a big day on campus tomorrow night as the school's football team plays for the National Title, so as a result, I wouldn't be too shocked if the student body wasn't all that fired up for this one. But Louisville should be as they're coming off a couple of close calls against Wake Forest and North Carolina State over the past week. Save for the game against Kentucky (day after X-Mas), Rick Pitino's Cardinals hardly played a daunting non-conf slate, but tip your cap to a +24.9 per game scoring margin for the season (best in the country!). I'll lay the points here. Against NC State on Thursday, L'ville shot the ball very well and actually led by as many as 16 pts in the second half. But the final margin ended up being much closer (five points) as they let the Wolfpack in through "the back door." The fact that it ended up being a non-cover (were seven-point favorites), I think helped create a little value tonight. The Cards have actually now failed to cover four straight, so I feel this is a good opportunity to "buy low" on a team that hasn't played up to par defensively the last few games. They still are #1 among ACC schools defensively, allowing just 58.3 PPG, while offensively they have shot the ball well all season (50.8 FG%). Thursday was the 10th time in 13 games that they shot better than 50 percent this season. Clemson is also relatively strong defensively, but the concern tonight in Death Valley has to be an offense which ranks 14th (out of 15) in the ACC w/ just 69.8 PPG on 43.8 percent. The Tigers exceeded that average against both Florida State and Syracuse, but this is a step up in class and my guess is they'll struggle with the same L'ville defense that at one point caused NC State to miss 14 of 15 shots at one point in the first half. Clemson's win over Syracuse came in overtime Tuesday, so that result certainly could have gone either way. This team had lost three in a row to end December and isn't likely to replicate Tuesday's 53.8% percent shooting here. 8* Louisville |
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01-09-16 | Kansas v. Texas Tech +7.5 | Top | 69-59 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
10* Texas Tech (9:00 ET): Even though they've had four days to recoup, this is obviously still a tough spot for #1 Kansas, who outlasted #2 Oklahoma in triple overtime thriller Monday night. The Jayhawks, who had better depth than the Sooners, seemed to simply outlast them at Allen Fieldhouse after trailing by as many as 10 in the second half. But four players still ended up logging 43 or more minutes and both Perry Ellis and Frank Mason III played 53. Even coming close to duplicating the kind of emotion they had Monday is a near impossibility, which could mean big trouble against an 11-2 Texas Tech team that allows just 63.3 PPG at home (where they are unbeaten) for HC Tubby Smith. Take the points. Though they had an impressive 10-game win streak snapped their last time out (at Iowa State), the Red Raiders still managed to cover (were 11-pt dogs) in the 76-69 loss Wednesday night. They've now covered the spread in each of their last eight lined games. As mentioned before, Smith has this team playing tremendous defense as they allow just 38.9 percent shooting for the year and Iowa State was one of the top shooting teams in the entire country and made only 39.7 percent (a season low for them) against TT. Kansas will obviously be the toughest test to date, but this is a team whose only losses came against Utah and Iowa State and were by a combined 17 points. It was actually just a three-point game w/ just over three minutes to go at ISU. Though they've typically been near the bottom of the conference the last couple of seasons, Texas Tech has always been a "tough out" here in Lubbock. Not only are they 9-0 SU here this season (6-0 ATS), but also 33-12 SU the L3 seasons and 23-11 ATS. They've prevailed by an average margin of 15 points per game so far in 2015-16. Kansas has played only two "true" road games so far, one of them against Chaminade, a D-II school that hosts the Maui Invitational. Look for the Red Raiders' defense to keep them in this one until the end. 10* Texas Tech |
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01-09-16 | Wizards v. Magic -2 | Top | 105-99 | Loss | -116 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:05 ET): Both of these teams played last night. Orlando won, Washington lost. I expect the results to be similar here again tonight. This is a big one for the Magic, who have lost an unfathomable 11 straight times to the division rival Wizards. Already this season, they are 0-3 SU against them, including a one-point loss here at home back in October. The most recent meeting took place on New Year's Day, in the Nation's Capital, and there it was the Wiz prevailing 103-91 as two-point chalk. But, I think there's significant value on Scott Skiles' team as a short home favorite here as they are 67 percent ATS in all other games this year not against Washington. The Wizards have lost their last three games, all at home, and continue to be a major disappointment w/ a negative scoring margin due to their awful defense. Lay the points. Last night, however, it was the offense that failed Washington as they scored only 88 points in a loss to the Raptors. Making the final result even more depressing is the fact Toronto turned the ball over a season-high 23 times. They (Washington) shot just 39.3% for the game, the second time in the last three that they were below 40 percent. If this team is not scoring, then they have little chance given that they also allow 104.1 points per game. Consider that earlier this week against Cleveland they shot better than 55 percent from the field and STILL lost. As a road underdog of three points or less, they are 0-3 against the spread this season. Remember that they still don't have Bradley Beal (leg). In the three previous meetings w/ Orlando, Washington has been fortunate in that the Magic have been just awful from three-point range. I mean, really awful. We're talking 13 of 64, which is just over 20 percent. Considering Orlando is at 35 percent for the year from behind the arc, I think it's accurate to deem the Wizards "lucky," especially given how poor they typically are defensively. The Magic, meanwhile, held Brooklyn to 77 points in an easy road win Friday that snapped a four-game losing streak. They are now a somewhat surprising 12-2 SU when favored this year, 9-5 ATS. 10* Orlando |
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01-09-16 | LSU v. Florida -3.5 | Top | 62-68 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
10* Florida (1:30 ET): Had you "bought low" on LSU over the last seven days, the reward would have been a pair of outright victories to open SEC play as the Tigers first went to Vanderbilt (as 10-pt dogs) and won 90-82 and then followed it up w/ an even more impressive "bell to bell" beatdown of Kentucky (85-67) at home. I was on Ben Simmons and company last Saturday at Vandy, but after watching them cover the spread by almost 40 points in the last two games, I'd say it's probably time to "sell high" on this team. This afternoon, they visit Florida, who is off a loss (at Tennessee) and thus won't be lacking motivation. The Tigers still have defensive issues, particularly on the road, and the Gators are a much different animal here in Gainesville. Lay the points. It probably goes w/o saying that Tuesday's win over Kentucky stands out as LSU's "best" performance of the season. It's also clear that John Calipari probably has his worst team in awhile in Lexington. Nevertheless, we won't take anything away from the Tigers for what they did, but it was at home and Tim Quarterman's 21 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists were certainly all unexpected. It also helped that the Wildcats shot only 32.1 percent in the first half, turned it over 14 times in the game (led to 22 LSU points) and missed 11 of 23 free throws. Those elements certainly won't be present every game for the Tigers and I submit to you the fact that they are still just 1-4 SU away from Baton Rouge, allowing 84.2 points per game. Defensively, it is obvious who the better team is going to be Saturday. Florida allows just 63.5 points per game on 38.2 percent shooting and considering LSU shoots only 40.5% on the road (including neutral site games), expect Simmons and the rest of his teammates to struggle here. Also, when Florida gets its own three-point shooting going, look out. So far, they are at a very low 28.9 percent from behind the arc, but w/ LSU allowing its opposition to make 38.2 percent on the road, today could be the day for the turnaround. What happened Wednesday in Knoxville (Tennessee scoring 53 pts in the 1st half!) was an outlier and I'll call for the Gators to bounce back here. 10* Florida |
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01-09-16 | Virginia Tech v. Duke -17 | Top | 58-82 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
8* Duke (12:00 ET): Can Va Tech make it back to back upsets in one week? Highly unlikely. After besting #4 Virginia on Monday, 70-68 as 12.5-pt dogs, the Hokies now visit Cameron Indoor to play Duke. That upset of Virginia came at home, which is obviously significant, not only because Va Tech has played just one "true" road game to this point (at Radford!), but also due to the fact Duke is so good on their own floor. Coach K's team is 9-0 SU this year here, averaging a whopping 94.8 PPG, and today marks the ACC home opener. The Blue Devils are coming off B2B lopsided road wins over Boston College and Wake Forest to start conference play and their last nine wins have all come by at least 16 points. Lay the number here. Go ahead and "tip your cap" to the job Buzz Williams is doing in Blacksburg, but while Duke has been dominant so far in ACC play, Williams' Hokies are a little fortunate to be 2-0 SU. They opened w/ a 73-68 overtime win against NC State, a game where they erased a 16-point second half deficit. Then somehow they managed to defeat Virginia despite the Hoos shooting 49 percent from the field (NC State shot only 32.3 percent). A major key to those two victories was the fact the Hokies turned the ball over a total of only 12 times. That's after turning it over 22 times in a loss New Year's Eve to West Virginia. Also, if they thought Virginia was tough to defend, Duke is even more lethal. The Blue Devils have shot better than 50 percent in four straight games and in seven of their last eight wins. Consider that Va Tech had only two wins all of last year in ACC play, so this start is definitely surprising (dog both games). What Duke is doing is not that surprising though, even w/o Amile Jefferson, which has left Coach K with a somewhat short rotation. At some point, that may catch up w/ the Blue Devils, but not here. In four of the last six games, they have topped 90 points. Va Tech simply doesn't have the kind of firepower needed to "keep up." After scoring 80+ pts in the previous game, Duke is an impressive 28-14 against the spread the L3 seasons. If ranking #1 in the country in offensive efficiency wasn't enough, they have also made more free throws than their opponents have attempted this season. 8* Duke |
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01-08-16 | Heat v. Suns +5.5 | Top | 103-95 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (9:35 ET): Things had been going quite horribly for the Suns before they beat Charlotte, 111-102 here at home Wednesday night. The nadir for them was most certainly an awful 97-77 loss to the Lakers the game prior, but as the win over the Hornets demonstrated, this is probably a good time to "buy low" on Phoenix after they'd lost nine in a row at one point. Here at home, Jeff Hornacek's team has been far more respectable, going 9-10 straight up (as opposed to 4-15 SU away). Tonight's opponent, Miami, hasn't played many road games this season (league-low 12!) and they're only 6-6 SU so far. While the majority of the betting public will look at this line and likely only see a short number w/ the better team, don't make that same mistake. There's some really good value on Phoenix here and I'm taking the points. I actually just played against the Heat in their last game when they were beaten at home by the Knicks (on ESPN), 98-90 as eight-point favorites. That loss came on the heels of three straight wins, but as I went on in my analysis for Knicks-Heat, Miami was fortunate to beat Indiana on Monday as they rallied back from an 18-point deficit at home and won in overtime. Somehow they got away w/ playing only five road games in the month of December and while their first of January went quite well (97-75 win over Washington, fact is that they average just 93.0 points per game away from home. While the Heat have been solid on the defensive end of the floor much of the season, they should have some difficulty containing a Phoenix side that averages 105.4 PPG here at home. Somewhat incredibly, the Suns have lost to Miami ten straight times. This will be the first meeting this year after going 0-4 ATS the previous two seasons. Phoenix connected on 19 three-pointers in their win over Charlotte two nights ago while Miami allowed the Knicks to shoot better than 55 percent overall from the field. Again, I look for the hosts to score more than enough to stay within this number. My own personal power rankings say this line is about right, but again, the Suns seem to be at their "lowest point" and that's often the best time to take a team. 10* Phoenix |
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01-08-16 | Utah +2 v. Colorado | Top | 56-54 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
8* Utah (9:00 ET): What has happened to the Utes? After starting the season strong (11-2 SU first 13 games), they've dropped their first two in conference play, both on the road. Clients/regular readers may recall that exactly one week ago I went against them as they lost the first of those two games, 70-68 (as five-point favorites) at Stanford. Two days later, in a tough spot, they fell 71-58 at California. The Pac 12 schedule-makers certainly did Utah no favors by giving them three straight road games to open league play, but with several days to prepare, I feel they'll be ready for Colorado here. The Buffaloes had dropped B2B games themselves (including one at Cal) before winning at Stanford Sunday, 56-55. I think the better team is getting points here. Three of Utah's losses this season have been by double digits, but keep in mind this is a team that's also beaten Duke, San Diego State, Texas Tech and BYU (who they won't be playing again anytime soon, apparently). They have center Jakob Poeltl, a potential NBA lottery pick, who is averaging 17.7 points, 9.3 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per game. He'll be the best player on the floor tonight. Being that they are coming off B2B losses, look for the Utes to be highly motivated from the start. They destroyed Colorado not once, but twice, last season as they prevailed by margins of 25 and 28 points. While they are third in the conference in scoring (81.9 PPG), the Utes issue has been defending the three-point line. Opponents are making 39.7 percent of 3-pt attempts against them, which is a very high number that I'd say is due to start coming down. Colorado may be unbeaten at home (8-0 SU), but they have turnover issues w/ the second worst margin in the conference. Though they've played the same conference slate Utah has, the Buffs were not tested as much earlier in the year during the non-conference portion of the schedule. They live and die w/ the three-point shot, which is nice when they're going in, but tonight (despite Utah's issues guarding said shot) I wouldn't be surprised if they are line for an "off-night." CU nearly blew a 16-pt lead at Stanford Sunday night and won't enjoy the same rebounding edge they had there in this game. 8* Utah |
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01-08-16 | Cavs v. Wolves +10 | Top | 125-99 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Well, I'm coming back with the T'Wolves again. That's somewhat scary given just how bad they've been at the Target Center this season (3-15-1 ATS!), but if you'll recall my analysis from the other night, I did say that the inevitable progression to the mean will likely come when the team starts getting big points here at home. Well, they are tonight as LeBron James and Cleveland come calling and Minnesota should be fired up for this one as the game will be on ESPN. The T'Wolves were favored Wednesday vs. Denver and came up short (losing 78-74), but that was one of five home losses this year by six points or less. Surprisingly, they've actually been favored in half of their home games this season. The market has now shifted against them and it's time to take advantage by grabbing the points. Clearly, on paper, this looks like a mismatch. The Cavs come in having won five straight and 11 of their last 13. Fully healthy now (Kyrie Irving back), they have established themselves as the team to beat in the East (what we all expected). But their defense, which had been much improved over the L3 weeks, has fallen off the past two games. Both Washington & Toronto were able to score 100+ against them and they allowed the Wizards to shoot better than 55% for the game Weds night including 14 of 24 from three-point range (the last one resulting in a "backdoor" cover). Cleveland has played a lot of close games so far this year as over half (17 of 33) have been decided by six points or less. With a couple of weak opponents on the horizon (T'wolves & Sixers), it would be only natural to see the Cavs "let up" a bit on what will be a six-game road trip. Minnesota, meanwhile, cannot possibly be any worse offensively than they were in the fourth quarter Weds vs. Denver. There, they scored only 9 points (2 for 20 from the field!) in the 78-74 setback. The YTD trends may not like them here, but again, what's surprising is that they've actually been favored in four of their past five games. Another surprise is that there has been only a handful of games this year where the T'wolves have been getting big points like they are here. Eight of Cleveland's nine losses this year have come on the road where they are just 9-8 SU overall. 10* Minnesota |
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01-07-16 | St. Mary's v. Loyola Marymount +10.5 | Top | 73-48 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
8* Loyola Marymount (10:00 ET): St. Mary's is an incredible 11-0 against the spread this season and while I might be guilty of "chasing," suffice to say we all know that the Gaels won't be covering every game this seaosn. They have opened WCC play w/ four dominant, double-digit wins, the latest coming Saturday at home as they rolled over San Diego by a score of 79-46. But now they're being asked to hit the road for only the third time all season and I think a battle-tested Loyola Marymount team (only five home games) is going to give them all they can handle. The Gaels only loss this year did come on the road, at Cal, and that was one where if you took the opening number (as I did), you actually would have covered going against them. I like the home dog in this one. Take the points. Loyola Marymount was done no favors by the WCC schedule-makers as they had to open conference play with three consecutive road games. They dropped all three, but did at least cover their last time out, losing by only three at Pepperdine as eight-point dogs. As mentioned earlier, the Lions haven't gotten many chances to play at home this season, but when they do they're undefeated at 5-0 SU. The teams that have come here are a real "rogue's gallery," but the good news is that LMU has averaged over 80.0 PPG in those victories. Now the Lions have come up empty the last few seasons against St. Mary's, but this team is "due" having come up just short in OT vs. Pepperdine on Saturday. I figure that they are certainly due to improve upon their woeful 37.6 percent shooting from their first three conference games. St. Mary's was not expected to be this good this season. They rolled in their last game, 79-46 over San Diego, their third 20+ pt victory in four WCC games. But their insanely hot shooting this year (54.3%!) is due to regress. They've been even more ridiculous in conference play (56.7% from the field!) and even less "fair" is that their opponents have shot just 38.4% for the season. I realize that this is the hallmark of a good team, but that kind of discrepancy is also totally unsustainable. Consider that three of their last six opponents have been below 30 percent shooting! I look for LMU to shoot well enough to stay inside the number in this one. 8* Loyola Marymount |
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01-07-16 | Jazz +9 v. Rockets | Top | 94-103 | Push | 0 | 19 h 35 m | Show |
10* Utah (8:05 ET): On paper, the Jazz would seem to be in some trouble here. This is the second game of a home and home w/ Houston, but in between they had to play a game in San Antonio (last night) where they predictably lost big, 123-98. The team has really struggled ever since losing Rudy Gobert to injury. Even worse is that Derrick Favors is now hurt (missed yday's game) as well. But as rough as things may look here, Houston has been a disaster at the betting window this year (league worst 13-23-3 ATS) including five straight non-covers. Utah covered Monday's game, losing by only two, and should have likely won outright as they held a 15-point lead in the second half. The oddsmakers are being quite generous here. Take the points. Win or lose, Utah has typically been strong on the defensive end of the floor this season (97.6 PPG allowed). This was not the case last night, however, as the league-best Spurs torched them for 123 points on better than 60 percent shooting. That was a season-worst effort on the defensive end for the Jazz. Houston might be strong offensively, but Utah held them to only 93 points Monday and outside of James Harden (30 points) no other player contributed much of anything. Of course, we know that the Rockets are not sound defensively and them holding the Jazz to 91 points (on 40% shooting) was an atypical performance. For the season, Houston is allowing a ghastly 105.8 PPG and the four opponents before Utah all topped that average. While the Jazz haven't found much success against the Rockets, particularly here in Houston, they are 10-3 ATS this season playing w/ revenge including 6-1 if said loss occurred at home. As mentioned previously, Houston has been awful at the betting window this year after being the league's best ATS team last year. Laying this many points while being so bad defensively is not a sound combination. As a home favorite, they are a lousy 4-11 against the spread and actually have a losing straight up record in those games (7-8). Incredibly, they have not covered a spread higher than -4 all year w/ the exception of two games against the lousy Lakers. 10* Utah |
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01-07-16 | Cincinnati +7 v. SMU | Top | 57-59 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
10* Cincinnati (7:00 ET): SMU is one of two unbeatens left in College Hoops (South Carolina), but despite that distinction, I'm actually pretty shocked they are favored in this spot here, despite being at home. ICYMI, the Mustangs lost a key contributor mid-week, Keith Frazier, who decided to quit the team. Frazier was part of the academic cheating scandal that landed the program on probation (ineligible for NCAA Tournament) and was one of five double digit scorers (11.9 PPG). Maybe that doesn't sound like a significant loss, but it is. This is a team whose regular rotation only runs eight deep. Tonight sees SMU taking on its toughest test to date, that being Cincinnati, who I give a great shot at pulling the outright upset. Take the points. Cincy is 11-4 straight up and coming off dominant home win (76-57) over Tulsa that was much needed. Previously, the Bearcats had actually dropped B2B games, both at home. The first was to Iowa State, somewhat understandable, but a 77-70 defeat at the hands of 11.5-pt dog Temple was clearly their worst loss of the season. Their only other losses this year have come at the hands of Butler (at the buzzer) and Xavier (unbeaten at the time). Interestingly, three of those four losses came at home. They are 4-1 SU in road/neutral site games, holding teams to just 59 points per game. Note that they are one of just three visiting teams to win here at Moody Coliseum the L3 years, having beaten the Mustangs 62-54 (as 6.5-pt dogs) last season. The Bearcats' defense will be the key to this game. Last year, they held SMU to just 36.5% shooting overall, including 3 for 14 from three-point range in the upset here in Dallas. They actually swept the Mustangs, also winning 56-50 at home and SMU wasn't much better from three-point range in that one, making just 3 of 11. Playing w/o Frazier for the first time, SMU struggled shooting the ball against South Florida on Saturday (season-low 41.1 percent), again particularly from three-point range (6 of 23). After HC Mick Cronin somewhat ripped his team for the B2B losses, the Bearcats responded by holding Tulsa to 33.3 percent shooting (4 of 21 from 3-pt range). I "smell" a potential upset here. 10* Cincinnati |
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01-06-16 | California +3 v. Oregon | Top | 65-68 | Push | 0 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
8* California (9:00 ET): Normally, when a team is off a SU loss as a favorite (such as Oregon is here), I might look to play ON them. But this isn't the first time I've gone against Oregon, nor is it likely to be the last. The Ducks are coming off a 70-57 loss, as 2.5-pt chalk, to rival Oregon State over the weekend and return home to face a Cal team that is just plain better than they are right now. The Ducks are only being "propped up" by the fact that they have won 16 straight here in Eugene, but all good streaks must come to an end and in the case of this one, I wouldn't be surprised if "tonight's the night." Take the points w/ a Cal team whose only loss over its L9 games came by a single point (in overtime) at Virginia. The visiting Bears are off an impressive win on Sunday as they beat ranked Utah, 71-58, in Berkeley. It was their fifth consecutive game covering the spread and they now have the best overall record among Pac 12 teams at 12-3 SU. Cuonzo Martin's team will absolutely be tested on this three-game road trip, but I see them as being up to the challenge. Remember that this team came into the season ranked 14th in the country. That was probably a case of putting "the cart before the horse," but w/ a veteran team back, plus the additions of two top 10 freshman in the country - Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb - this is going to be a dangerous team come March. The two freshman have gotten their respective offensive games going and I think Oregon is going to be in big trouble tonight. Even w/ multiple players in foul trouble on Sunday, Cal was never really in danger of losing to Utah, whom they led by double digits for a good portion of the game. Defensively, this team has really turned a corner as they're allowing only 60.0 PPG their last seven contests and Utah scored only 22 first half points against them. Coming off a 57-point effort (on just 35.8% shooting) against Oregon State, I expect Oregon to have similar difficulties here. Even though OSU's leading scorer Gary Payton, Jr didn't score in the 1st half Sunday, the Ducks found themselves trailing 34-19 going into the break (not a good sign!) and they couldn't come back despite the Beavers attempting only TWO three-pointers the entire 2H! The better team is getting points in this one. 8* California |
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01-06-16 | Nuggets v. Wolves -3 | Top | 78-74 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Well, I'm going back to well w/ Minnesota, at home, again and at this point it's definitely fair to say that I'm "chasing." The T'wolves are an abysmal 3-14-1 against the spread on their own floor this year, most recently suffering a 10-point setback here to Milwaukee. Even more embarrassing though was another outright loss, this one on the road, to Philadelphia Monday night. They became just the second team to lose by double digits to the now 4-33 Sixers and overall it was Minny's seventh loss in its last eight games. I know they've let us down before here at the Target Center, but tonight they get a chance to host a team that is in even worse shape than they are, that being Denver, losers of six straight (and 9 of 10). Lay the points. These teams met not that long ago, here in Minneapolis, and the Nuggets came out on top 112-100 as 6.5-pt dogs. So you can see right away that there's a little bit of value in the shorter line this evening. Since that win, the bottom has dropped out for Denver (has a lot to due w/ injuries) as they've won just the one time in their L10 games. They've given up 110+ points in three straight games and while one of those was an OT loss at Golden State, they were also swept in a home and home by Portland. PG Emmnauel Mudiay is expected back here after missing the L12 games, but I don't think his presence will be enough to lift a Denver team that is allowing 104.2 points per game on the road this season. Minnesota's awful home record is obviously due to regress back to the mean and while normally that might come about as a result of larger spreads in the underdog role, I anticipate perhaps their biggest margin of victory at home all season tonight. They too should be getting back a key contributor, Nikola Pekovic, who hasn't played at all this season following offseason surgeries. The T'wolves have lost to Denver twice this season, but I feel that the third time will be the charm as they are 7-4 ATS when seeking revenge for a home loss, plus the Nuggets are only 4-10 ATS coming off a game where they scored 105 or more points. 8* Minnesota |
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01-06-16 | Knicks +8 v. Heat | Top | 98-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
10* New York (7:05 ET): The Knicks won last night, 107-101 in Atlanta, but by being in the second game of a back to back come in undervalued for tonight's nationally televised showdown in Miami. By sweeping a home and home w/ the Hawks, New York has already exceeded LY's win total, which is pretty impressive, although it also illustrates just how bad they were in 2014-15. While I don't think this is a playoff team yet, they have gone 9-4 against the spread dating back to December 10th and in what likely should be a fairly low-scoring affair tonight, getting all these points from the linesmakers is a nice luxury to have. Over the L3 seasons, the Knicks are just 1-8 SU/ATS vs. the Heat, including 0-4 SU/ATS here in Miami, but I'll call for them to at least cover here. Take the points. The Knicks played very well in the two games against Atlanta, averaging 109 points. Last night, on the road, they led by as many as 16 in the second half before things got tight late. But never surrendering that lead is definitely a positive sign. So is Aaron Afflalo having scored a combined 61 pts the L2 games as it's not only Carmelo Anthony and rookie Kristaps Porzingis carrying the scoring burden. The team did control the paint and outrebounded Atlanta as well. Getting points has served the Knicks well this season (14-9 ATS) and they haven't been too bothered by playing w/o rest, going 4-3 vs. the number in the second game of a B2B. Now things are likely to be tougher here against a Miami team that is surrendering only 94.6 PPG for the season. But the Heat are actually slightly WORSE defensively here at home and were fortunate to record a 103-100 overtime win against Indiana on Monday as Dwyane Wade made a driving layup to tie the game at the end of regulation. They trailed the Pacers by as many as 18 in that game and while it was their third straight win and cover, the team hasn't fared nearly as well when laying a bigger number. In fact, they are just 1-5 ATS as favorites of eight points or more w/ three outright losses. They are also 0-3 SU/ATS this season following three consecutive victories. This all makes sense as the Heat typically don't score a ton (97.4 PPG), so points are likely to be at a premium here. 10* New York |
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01-06-16 | Seton Hall +14 v. Villanova | Top | 63-72 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show |
10* Seton Hall (7:00 ET): Villanova, not surprisingly, has established itself as one of the premier teams in the country. I took them on New Year's Eve as they absolutely destroyed Xavier, 95-64, handing the Musketeers their first loss of the entire season. 'Nova followed that up w/ another easy win, 85-71 at Creighton (were 8 pt favorites) and their three-year ATS record now stands at a remarkable 55-24, including 29-8 here at home. Early in the year, I was playing against them (to mixed results), noting this phenomenal run against the pointspread had to start regressing sooner or later. Well, it hasn't yet, but tonight I'll call for the Wildcats to struggle a bit more than expected as they host another 12-2 team, Seton Hall. Take the points. I also took Seton Hall in its Big East opener. Once again, I was rewarded as the Pirates went into Marquette and dominated, winning 83-63 as 3-pt dogs. Two days later, they hosted DePaul and while they did win for a seventh consecutive time, they failed to cover the 10-point spread (won 78-74). Perhaps they were looking forward to this game as they haven't beaten Villanova in Philly in their L14 tries. However, they have taken two of the last three meetings overall, including a five-point win at home last season (were +7). They are also 2-1 SU in "true" road games so far and their only two losses have both been by single digits. This looks to be a classic over-inflated number due to Villanova's recent form. Five of the seven wins during Seton Hall's current win streak have come by double digits. They also hold victories over Ole Miss (neutral floor) and Wichita State. The last team they lost to was George Washington, who beat Virginia. As I wrote about in the Marquette analysis, the Pirates are led by Isaiah Whitehead, who is now up to 15.1 points and 4.6 assists per game. Angel Delgado continues to pace the Big East w/ an average of 10.3 rebounds per game as he and Khadeen Carrington are the reason why this team does so well in points in the paint, especially second chance opportunities. The Pirates get to the free throw line often as well (73.6% from the charity stripe), but most important here is the fact they allow only 63.9 PPG. I see this being a tight, relatively low-scoring game throughout, which means grabbing the points is the way to go here. 10* Seton Hall |