Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-10-20 | Portland v. Oregon State -13.5 | Top | 87-86 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
10* Oregon State (8:00 ET): Oregon State is off B2B outright losses at the hands of Wyoming and Washington State, but should get back on track tonight against a lowly in-state foe. Both OSU losses have been close. They lost by four at Wazzu, then by only three to Wyoming. That Wyoming loss really stung as the Beavers led by six with under two minutes to go. They led Washington State by double digits early in the second half of that game as well. Really, the Beavers easily could be coming into this game unbeaten at 4-0. Portland is 3-1 and on a three-game win streak, but two of those three wins came against non-board teams. They did just beat rival Portland State 86-73 as a 2.5-point home dog last Saturday. The fact the Pilots were home dogs to a team like Portland State should speak volumes. I’ve got Portland ranked outside my top 300. As a reminder, there are “only” 347 D-I College Hoops teams. The Pilots have never won more than 11 games in any of HC Terry Porter’s previous four seasons here and are a terrible 7-61 SU in conference play. Oregon State’s problems thus far have been turnovers and a bizarrely low FG% on 2-point attempts. We should see those issues rectified tonight in what shapes up to be a “get-well game” for them. Portland also has turnover issues and while they do a great job at getting to the free throw line, they are outside the top 300 in the country in offensive efficiency, which is very bad. Oregon State should have a significant edge on the boards in this matchup and will be looking for a “pound of flesh” after blowing 2H leads in the L2 games. 10* Oregon State |
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12-09-20 | Boise State +5 v. BYU | Top | 74-70 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
10* Boise State (9:00 ET): Boise State is going to look to exact some revenge here for what happened on the football field. In case you forgot, the Broncos’ football team suffered its only loss of the season at BYU earlier this year and it came in embarrassing fashion on the blue turf. The hoops team heads to Provo, looking to build off an 86-55 win over Sam Houston State that came all the way back on 11/29. The Broncos only other game this season was a 68-58 loss at Top 10 Houston. BYU has been much busier than Boise State thus far as they come with a 5-1 SU record on the year. They’re off B2B wins (against St. John’s and Utah State), the latter coming on the road by three points. The Cougars weren’t tested during a 3-0 start and then suffered a blowout loss at the hands of USC, 79-53 as 3.5-point chalk. Tonight will be the most points they’ve had to lay since that game and my power ratings say the number is too high. I’ve got these teams rated pretty evenly and home court advantage just doesn’t mean much right now. Boise State has really struggled from three-point range thus far, making only 21.5% of their attempts. I expect that number to start going up immediately. The Broncos do an excellent job at crashing the glass and getting to the free throw line. They also are excellent at forcing turnovers (20th in NCAA) and defending the three-point line (22.9%). Those numbers are significant as BYU has a high turnover percentage (22.1% of its offensive possessions) and struggles at the FT line. This is a good matchup for the underdog. Take the points. 10* Boise State |
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12-09-20 | SIU-Edwardsville +12 v. Valparaiso | Top | 58-80 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
8* SIU Edwardsville (7:00 ET): I don’t think Valpo should be laying double digits to anybody right now, even a “lesser” opponent like SIU Edwardsville. The Crusaders opened the season with three straight road defeats, one of them as a favorite to old Horizon League foe IL-Chicago. (The other two were at Purdue and Vanderbilt, so to be fair a strong start was unlikely). An 85-45 win over Judson College on Sunday was pretty meaningless considering that the opponent was a non-DI team. SIU Edwardsville started with an ugly loss at Saint Louis, but has since been a competitive squad. It’s other two losses were to LSU (easily covered that game as 30-pt underdogs) and Saturday at home vs. Omaha (by just two points). The Cougars pulled an upset in their last road game, beating Northern Illinois (by 20!) as a nine-point underdog! Having lost each of the L2 seasons to Valpo (by a total of just 18 points), the Cougars will be looking for revenge. Valpo has struggled from distance so far, shooting just 28% from three-point range. Even if that number is set to improve (it probably will), it’s going to be tough to cover a large spread such as this one. SIU Edwardsville has shot better than 50% in three of its five games and is much more proficient from behind the arc (including an impressive 41.8% in four games away from home). A poor 1H cost the Cougars the game against Omaha on Saturday. They’ll come out sharper here. 8* SIU Edwardsville |
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12-08-20 | Illinois +4 v. Duke | Top | 83-68 | Win | 100 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
8* Illinois (9:30 ET): It was exactly one week ago that I took Michigan State plus the points here at Cameron Indoor and watched as the underdog pulled off the outright upset. Could Duke suffer another outright loss to a Big 10 opponent at home? Yes, I think so. I’ve got Illinois rated even higher than Michigan State, so this is a no brainer for me. I expect an outright win, but will take the points with the better team. Even after factoring in the minimal home court edge, I still think the Illini should be favored tonight. A young Duke team is off to an 0-3 ATS start. In addition to the outright loss to Michigan State last Tuesday, the Blue Devils did not cover against Coppin State in the opener or against Bellarmine on Friday. Now to be fair, they were favored by more than 30 in both games. But those spreads also reflect the fact Duke is overvalued right now. According to my own personal power ratings, they are not even a Top 25 team, let alone #10. Their current ranking is completely based on reputation. Coach K is also still trying to figure out his starting lineup. Eight different Blue Devils have found their way into the starting lineup in the first three games, which is a reflection of how young the squad is. Illinois is a veteran team looking to bounce back from a double digit loss to #2 Baylor. That was a close game for the first 30 minutes before Baylor pulled away. Note that while Duke lost by “only” 6 to Michigan State, they trailed by double digits much of the second half. 8* Illinois |
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12-08-20 | Kent State +1.5 v. Detroit | Top | 80-66 | Win | 100 | 19 h 12 m | Show |
10* Kent State (7:00 ET): I thought the oddsmakers made an error when they opened Detroit as the favorite for this game and it appears as if I wasn’t alone in that assessment given how the line has already moved. The Golden Flashes gave Virginia all they could handle over the weekend (in Charlottesville!), taking the Hoos into overtime and coming up only seven points short. They were 18.5-point underdogs, so they covered the spread easily. The only other game Kent State has played was a 90-41 win over Point Park. Detroit is 0-2 SU, but 2-0 ATS as they’ve covered the spread against Michigan State and Notre Dame. Both games have come in the last five days. The Titans were very fortunate to draw Michigan State just a few days after Sparty went to Cameron and upset Duke. The situation played out just as you might think as Detroit took advantage of MSU being in the letdown spot, staying even for most of the game before losing 83-76. On Sunday, the Titans lost by eight at Notre Dame, a game they were expected to lose by 12. Though Detroit has played two P5 teams tough thus far, they are the ones in a bit of a letdown spot Tuesday night. The team is probably somewhat discouraged by the fact they didn’t win either game and isn’t likely to “get up” as much for an opponent like Kent State. So look for the Golden Flashes to take full advantage as they are better rested and confident after taking Virginia to OT. Had it not been for FTs, they would have won that game. Another reason they should be confident is that they beat Detroit by 35 points last season. 10* Kent State |
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12-07-20 | NC-Wilmington +9.5 v. East Carolina | Top | 78-88 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
8* UNC Wilmington (5:00 ET): UNC Wilmington is gunning for a third consecutive upset here as they travel to face 3-0 East Carolina. The Seahawks have previously beaten UNC Asheville and Troy, games where they were six and three-point dogs, respectively. All three of their games thus far were played in Asheville (which is a lovely place to visit) as part of a tournament to open the season. They are led by Jaylen Sims, who is coming off a career-high 29 pts vs. Troy and averaging 26.7 PPG (on 63% shooting) overall. East Carolina might be unbeaten, but that’s a byproduct of who they’ve played. A season-opening win over Charlotte was a decent resume builder, but since then it’s been victories over NC Wesleyan (non-DI opponent) and Radford. The Pirates’ defense has been pretty good so far as they are allowing just 56.3 PPG, but I don’t expect that to continue. UNC Wilmington has scored 73 or more points in all three games and shoots very well (40%) from three-point range. The Seahawks have two other double-digit scorers besides Sims. While UNCW did allow 98 points to Western Carolina in the season opener, they’ve been much better defensively in the last two games, particularly vs. Troy. They held the Trojans below 30% shooting for the game and allowed only 50 points. While not expected to make a ton of noise in the Colonial this season, the Seahawks deserve more respect than they’re getting here against a team that’s overrated simply because they have a “0” in the loss column. 8* UNC Wilmington |
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12-06-20 | California +10.5 v. UCLA | Top | 56-76 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
10* California (8:00 ET): The university from Berkeley treated me so well yesterday on the football field (outright win over Oregon as my 10* NCAAF Game of the Week) that I thought I’d try the basketball team on Sunday. In all seriousness, me taking both programs on the same weekend is mere coincidence as this play is all about my skepticism over UCLA being ranked in the Top 25. I don’t see it. The Bruins’ season started with them losing outright (as a 3-pt favorite) to San Diego State. While it was a road game, they lost by 15 points and only managed to score 58 points on 39.5% shooting. From there, they did score 107 points the next game, but that was because of TRIPLE overtime. The Bruins were extremely fortunate to get the ATS win against Pepperdine (won 107-98) as they were NOT covering the 7-point spread for roughly 99% of the game. After a game with Long Beach State was postponed, UCLA finally got to play its home opener Thursday and it was their most complete effort to date. But that 78-52 win came against lowly Seattle, who was a 20-point underdog. Cal is 2-2 SU, but 0-2 in Pac 12 play. They’ve suffered losses to Oregon State and Arizona State, both coming by exactly eight points. The Bears didn’t shoot well in either game (just under 40% overall) and really struggled from 3-point range. But I didn’t exactly see great defense from UCLA in their first two games. Thus the Bears should see improved shooting tonight. The eight-point final margin against Arizona State was actually somewhat misleading as it was the largest they faced the entire game. It was a close game throughout. The same should end up being true here. Take the points. 10* California |
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12-04-20 | Texas-Arlington +6 v. Tulsa | Top | 64-79 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
8* UT Arlington (5:00 ET): UT Arlington is off to a 1-3 start (straight up), but that record doesn’t do justice to how competitive the Mavericks have been in those four games. Rather you should look to the fact they are a perfect 4-0 ATS. They only lost by 7 to Oklahoma State, by 5 at Louisiana Tech and by 12 at Arkansas. The Tulsa team that they are facing Friday is 0-2 SU and ATS and hasn’t done much in the way of scoring. When these teams met in Arlington last season, the Mavericks were 14 pt winners, holding Tulsa to just 59 points. This is a matchup where taking the points makes a lot of sense. Covering as underdogs is nothing new for UT Arlington. After all, they are a remarkable 70-38 ATS the L108 times taking points including 3-0 already this season. The fact they’ve been able to cover all of these games has been a testament to their defense as the Mavericks are shooting below 40% from the field thus far. They were able to hold Arkansas to just SIX points over the final 10 minutes on Wednesday, but it still wasn’t enough. You have to figure they’re going to start shooting better moving forward and I say that happens here. Tulsa’s season has started with losses to TCU and South Carolina, both of which were part of the Hall of Fame Classic in Kansas City. Despite only losing by 5 to TCU, the Golden Hurricane never led in the second half. They jumped out to an early 9-0 against sloppy South Carolina, but after that were pretty much dominated and ended up losing by 11. This is the first time Tulsa has been favored and UT Arlington is on a 14-5 ATS run vs. teams with losing records. Tulsa’s three-point shooting has been dreadful and I smell upset here. Take the points. 8* UT ARLINGTON |
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12-03-20 | Niagara +21 v. Syracuse | Top | 45-75 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
8* Niagara (8:00 ET): These two upstate New York teams have combined to play just ONE game thus far and it was Syracuse delivering a thoroughly unimpressive 85-84 win over Bryant. While you’ll always take a win, given the fact the Orange were favored in that game by 22 points, winning 85-84 is not what they had in mind. The fact they made only 40% of their field goal attempts against such a lesser foe is NOT a good sign moving forward and the Orange could be looking ahead to next week’s game vs. Rutgers, who is a Top 25 team. Take the points in this matchup. It would not be a shock to see Niagara keep this game close. After all, last year they lost by only 14 (71-57) here at the Carrier Dome and that was despite shooting just 32.4% from the field, including 6 of 27 from three-point range. You’d expect them to shoot better this time around. The 2019-20 season was not a good one for the Purple Eagles offensively, but they should be better at that end of the floor this season. They return LY’s leading scorer Marcus Hammond, who is one of the top players in the MAAC. The fact that Jim Boeheim’s son (Buddy) is the best player on the team is an insight into the relatively sad state of Syracuse basketball right now. No longer is this program a power on the national level. They are probably looking at a middle of the pack finish in the ACC. While they are likely to win tonight, their struggles in the season opener reiterate this is not a team you want to lay a ton of points with. Failing to cover against Bryant drops the Orange to 1-5 ATS the L6 times they’ve been a home favorite of 18.5 to 24 points. 8* Niagara |
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12-03-20 | Connecticut v. USC +1.5 | Top | 61-58 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
10* USC (7:00 ET): Two unbeaten teams here meeting in the Mohegan Sun Arena for what is a de facto home game for UConn. It seems as if it’s been FOREVER since the Huskies were relevant on the national scene, but they are 2-0 right now and averaging 85.0 points/game. Still, neither win could be considered all that impressive as one was against Central Connecticut State and the other a non-cover vs. Hartford. Tonight is the Huskies’ stiffest test to date as they face a 3-0 USC team. Southern Cal has shot 50% or better in all three of its games thus far and played exceptional defense in the last two. After holding Montana to just 33.3% shooting last Saturday, the Trojans were even stingier vs. BYU, limiting the Cougars to a 27.5 FG% in what was termed an “upset” two nights ago. But you wouldn’t have known USC was a 3.5-point dog by the way they played Tuesday. They won by 26 (79-53) on this same floor. Both Mobley brothers finished with double-doubles and Drew Peterson led the scoring with 19 points. I’ve got USC rated as the better team here. If this were just a “one-off” at the Mohegan Sun, I’d be less inclined to back them, but that’s not the case. After watching the Trojans destroy BYU here two days ago, I’m comfortable in pretty much disregarding any advantage UConn might otherwise have by playing this game within the state border. It’s not as if fans are a factor in 2020. I’ve been very impressed with the USC defense the L2 games while UConn’s scoring average is inflated by one big game against a terrible opponent. UConn had its game (vs. Vanderbilt) scheduled for Tuesday cancelled and will struggle with USC’s size. The Trojans have won six straight going back to the end of last season. 10* USC |
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12-02-20 | Oregon State v. Washington State | Top | 55-59 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
8* Oregon State (10:00 ET): The Pac 12 has wasted little time getting conference play underway and here we have Oregon State travelling to Pullman to face Washington State. Both teams are 2-0, however Wazzu is 0-2 ATS as both wins were close. OSU is coming off a 114-point effort last Friday, albeit against a non-DI opponent (Northwest Col). But the Beavers also have already picked up a win over a conference opponent, beating Cal 71-63 in the season opener. Oregon State is hoping to avoid a repeat of what happened LY here in Pullan when they arrived as 3.5-point favorites and lost outright, 89-76. That was a bad shooting night for the Beavers, at least from three-point range where they finished just 2 of 13. That shouldn’t happen again here as the Beavers are deep and one of the most experienced teams in the entire country. Six players are averaging in double figures thus far, led by senior Ethan Thompson, who has started every game in his career. Washington State had to rally past both Texas Southern and Eastern Washington to win by four and three points, respectively. The Cougars shot poorly in the first game, then actually trailed 16-3 early against an Eastern Washington side that was down to just seven scholarship players (COVID). Looking at the injury report here, I see a lot of question marks for Wazzu and that’s not good for a team that simply isn’t very deep. They have the worst record in the Pac 12 over the past two seasons as well. 8* Oregon State |
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12-02-20 | South Dakota State +3.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 71-68 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
10* South Dakota State (7:00 ET): The better team is getting points here, at least in my opinion. Even if you may not agree with that assessment, there certainly is no denying that the underdog is the more “battle-tested” of the two teams. South Dakota State has already played #11 West Virginia, Utah State & St. Mary’s. The Jackrabbits have emerged from that stretch with a 1-2 SU/2-1 ATS mark. Meanwhile, Iowa State has played only one game (Ark-Pine Bluff) and is without starter Tre Jackson. All three of South Dakota State’s games were a part of the Bad Boy Mowers Classic, which was held in nearby Sioux Falls. They were actually favored to beat St. Mary’s (-3), which shows this team is already respected in the marketplace. That line was probably also based on the fact the Jackrabbits had just clobbered Utah State by 24 points the day prior. Playing their third game in three days, SDSU had an “off-shooting” night vs. SMU (36.2 FG%), which included 2 of 12 from 3-pt range. They even missed 12 of 27 FT attempts. Keep in mind that the Summit League contingent was able to outrebound West Virginia in the season opener! Iowa State will miss Jackson as he was one of the team’s best three-point shooters. Though they ended up winning comfortably (80-63), the Cyclones actually trailed Arkansas Pine Bluff at halftime here in Ames in the season opener. South Dakota State returns the fourth most minutes in the entire country from last season, so this is a veteran team that won’t be intimidated by playing in a Big 12 building. (Home court advantage obviously doesn’t mean much right now anyway). They’ve been off since Friday, giving them plenty of time to recoup after the Bad Boy Mowers Classic. 10* South Dakota State |
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12-01-20 | Michigan State +4.5 v. Duke | Top | 75-69 | Win | 100 | 21 h 28 m | Show |
10* Michigan State (7:00 ET): Michigan State has had a curious lack of success against Duke through the years. Their only win in the L10 tries against the Blue Devils came in the Elite Eight of the last NCAA Tournament played (2019), a 68-67 “upset” as 2.5-pt underdogs. Sparty is 0-3 SU all-time vs. Duke when matched up in the Champions Classic, plus they lost outright to them LY in the ACC-Big 10 Challenge 87-75 as 6.5-pt chalk. Things are different this year, however. I’ve got MSU rated as the better team, so this is looking like a good value. Take the points. Michigan State is already 2-0 with wins over Eastern Michigan and Notre Dame. They defeated Eastern Michigan 83-67 as 22.5-pt favorites and then Notre Dame 80-70 as a 9.5-pt favorite. The Spartans shot better against Eastern Michigan, which is to be expected, but also played better defense vs Notre Dame. Joshua Langford is back after missing all of last season and the final 18 games of the year prior, which is a big boost. Also, don’t let that final score vs. ND fool you. Sparty led by as many as 28 in the 2H. After having its first game (vs. Gardner-Webb) cancelled, Duke finally opened its season on Saturday with an 81-71 win over Coppin State. They too opened a sizable lead (17 pts), but were unable to hold on to it. Still, the Blue Devils never even came close to covering the 39-point spread in that one. That was due to a combination of letting Coppin State make 10 three-pointers plus 22 turnovers. Duke is a young team and home court advantage doesn’t matter much in this scenario. MSU is 16-6 ATS after scoring 80+ points and I like them as a dog early in the season. 10* Michigan State |
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11-30-20 | Texas -7 v. Davidson | Top | 78-76 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
8* Texas (12:30 ET): Both of these teams started the season with a win. However, Texas was clearly more impressive than Davidson. The Longhorns clobbered a clearly overmatched Texas Rio Grande Valley 91-57, easily covering the 21-point spread. Davidson won comfortably against High Point, 82-73, but didn’t come close to covering the 19-point spread. For both teams, it boiled down to defense. Texas held UTRGV to 26.1% shooting. Davidson let High Point shoot a far more respectable 46.6% overall. That impressive showing by the Longhorns in the season opener was a continuation of what we saw from this team last year in non-conference play. They gave up only 61.5 PPG in non-conference play in 2019-20, going 10-3 SU in those games. Meanwhile, Davidson was just 6-6 SU in non-conference play a year ago. This is a big step up in class for the Wildcats facing the #22 ranked team in the country. I’ve got Texas very high in my own power ratings and expect this to be a blowout win Monday. This game is part of the “Maui Invitational,” which is actually being held in Asheville, NC. Despite the in-state advantage for Davidson, I still feel this should be a double-digit spread. Texas shot 57% from the floor in the opener. While it probably won’t be that easy on Monday, Davidson did just allow High Point to make 11 three-pointers and shoot 40% from behind the arc. The Longhorns did struggle on the offensive end last year, so their shooting in the opening game was certainly a welcome sight. I think it carries over here. Lay the points. 8* Texas |
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11-27-20 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. NC-Greensboro -2.5 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
10* UNC Greensboro (7:00 ET): Little Rock and UNC Greensboro were both good teams last year. Little Rock went 21-10 SU and were regular season champs in the Sun Belt. (Conference Tournament was never played). UNC Greensboro won 23 games in 2019-20, finishing third in the always tough SoCon. The Spartans would not have made the NCAA Tournament though as they were upset in the 1st round of the conference tournament by Chattanooga. Arkansas Little Rock has already played a game this season while UNC Greensboro has not. Little Rock’s first game here in Louisville was far too close for comfort if you’re a Trojans fan as they could only beat a bad Prairie View A&M team 71-66 despite being 14-point favorites. Had they not enjoyed a massive edge at the free throw line (+25 in attempts, +19 in makes), they very well could have lost the game outright. The Trojans trailed at the half and let Prairie View A&M shoot nearly 50% for the game. That’s not a good sign when getting set to face a much superior team tonight. UNC Greensboro actually failed to cover the spread in its final five games last year. That has the Spartans undervalued coming into this 2020-21 season. This was a good defensive team last season as it held opposing teams to just 63.1 PPG. They return 11 players and have won 103 games the last four years (20+ wins every season). "I think this may be the deepest team I've ever coached," said HC Wes Miller. This looks like one of the better mid-majors in the country, so lay the short number. 10* UNC Greensboro |
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11-25-20 | Tennessee Tech v. Indiana -21 | Top | 59-89 | Win | 100 | 22 h 8 m | Show |
10* Indiana (8:00 ET): The Hoosiers are 4-0 SU in all-time meetings with Tennessee Tech, though the last one took place back in 2017. It was an 87-59 win here in Bloomington. Tennessee Tech did not have a good season last year as they finished with a 9-22 SU record. What’s interesting is that four of those wins came in their final seven games. They closed on a 6-1 ATS stretch and were 4-0 ATS L4. Despite that, they failed to even qualify for the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. I wouldn’t put much stock in that finish to last season for Tennessee Tech. At one point, their record was just 5-19 SU. Will the Golden Eagles be more competitive this season? Ultimately, yes. But not here against a “blue blood” program. Indiana was 20-12 SU last season and while they do lose some depth, LY’s leading scorer Trayce Jackson-Davis does return. The Hoosiers should definitely be back in the NCAA Tournament in March. They received votes in the initial Top 25 and certainly deserved consideration to be in that first poll. The last few seasons have seen IU be a really strong home team. They’ve won 30 of the last 40 games here at Assembly Hall and are 15-0 SU when favored by 12.5 or more. Of course, winning straight up is not the concern here for the Hoosiers. Given that they averaged 77.2 PPG at home last season and Tennessee Tech averaged only 58.4 while going 3-14 SU away from home, I can say with full confidence that you should lay the points in this one. The Hoosiers won their first eight non-conf games last year, all by double digits. 10* Indiana |
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11-25-20 | Oakland +19.5 v. Xavier | Top | 49-101 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
8* Oakland (12:00 ET): This is a lot of points than Xavier is laying here. Leading scorers from last year, Tyrique Jones and Naji Marshall, are both gone. Hampton transfer Ben Stanley’s eligibility waiver was denied, so he won’t be making the expected impact. While there is some returning talent and promising newcomers, I just think that it’s too many points for a Musketeers team predicted to finish in the middle of the Big East to lay in the first game. They are just 2-9 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 or more. After a hot 9-1 start to last season, Xavier really sputtered down the stretch. Their season officially ended with a 1st round loss to DePaul in the Big East Tournament. But it was dropping six of their first eight conference games when things really began to take a turn for the worse. The Musketeers did finish with a 19-13 SU record, but they were only 11-20 ATS and the season ended on a three-game losing streak. Oakland has a LOT of new faces to open the 2020-21 season. They have eight freshmen on the roster and five players left via the transfer portal. But while it looks like a rebuilding year for HC Greg Kampe, I’m banking on him getting the most out of his team on Wednesday. This will be his 22nd year on the bench. Though off B2B losing seasons, the Golden Grizzlies did close LY by winning six of seven before falling to Green Bay in the Horizon League Tournament. Their three-point shooting should be a lot better in 2020-21. Take the points. 8* Oakland |
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10-09-20 | Heat v. Lakers -7 | Top | 111-108 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 52 m | Show |
10* LA Lakers (9:05 ET): This is the 36th time in NBA Finals history that a team has been up 3 games to 1. The ONLY time a team facing that deficit came back and won the series was four years ago when LeBron James and Cleveland shocked Golden State. When the Finals are 3-1, the series has ended in five games over 50% of the time (18 of 35 chances) and that’s what I’m banking on here as the Lakers look to close out the Heat. It’s been a nice run for Miami, but the bottom line is that they have been behind by double digits in 6 of the last 10 games and never led in the final 20 minutes in Game 4. Lay the points. The Heat looked to be “down and out” after losing the first two games of the series. Both Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic were injured. The team trailed by as many as 32 in Game 1 and also trailed virtually the entire way in Game 2. In those first two games, Miami was ahead for only 10:44 out of a possible 96 minutes and most of that was the first quarter of Game 1. A resilient effort in Game 3, led by Jimmy Butler’s 40-point triple double, briefly cast some doubt. But that was quickly put to rest in Game 4 where the Lakers held the Heat to 96 pts on 42.7% shooting, despite Adebayo returning to the lineup. Miami did cover the spread in Game 4, thanks to Tyler Herro draining a 3-pointer with 1.1 seconds remaining. While it was the quintessential “back door cover,” I do recognize that the Heat were “in the money” most of the way. Still, they did again trail most of the way and that was in an “off shooting night” from the Lakers. It remains fairly obvious who the better team is here and I expect the Lakers to win their 17th NBA Championship (1st since 2010) Friday night and do so in convincing fashion. Their previous three series have all ended in five games and they’ve won every close out game by at least nine points. 10* LA Lakers |
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10-02-20 | Heat +9.5 v. Lakers | Top | 114-124 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
10* Miami (9:05 ET): The Heat were a trendy pick in Game 1 (+4.5) and early on things were looking great. They raced out to a 25-12 advantage with four minutes left in the 1st quarter. From that point forward though, it was a Lakers “avalanche” as the Purple & Gold seized the lead by the end of the 1Q and outscored Miami 104-73 the rest of the way. Adding injury to insult, Miami will very likely be without both Bam Adebayo (shoulder) and Goran Dragic (foot) in Game 2 (both listed as doubtful). What a way to start the Finals! Given the Game 1 result and the injury news, you would naturally expect the line to jump for Game 2. It has, by several points. I think it’s a “classic overreaction” that the public will fall for. While both Adebayo and Dragic are key contributors, the Heat have largely been getting it done “by committee” this postseason, which has seen them go 12-4 SU & ATS. Game 1 was just the third time they were beaten in regulation and they’ve yet to drop B2B games. They are a perfect 3-0 ATS off those previous three defeats. Jimmy Butler (who is dealing with an ankle injury himself) and Tyler Herro are still here and can carry the load offensively. Where the Heat will need to improve is at the defensive end as they allowed the Lakers to shoot at a 56% clip in the 1st half of Game 1 and 39.5% overall from 3-point range. I do not see those numbers repeating themselves here. This marks the 1st time Miami has been trailed in a series thus far and they are 10-3 SU/8-4-1 ATS off a DD loss this season. They are being undervalued for Game 2 and you should take the points. 10* Miami |
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09-25-20 | Heat v. Celtics -3 | Top | 108-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
10* Boston (8:35 ET): After jumping out to big leads in each of the first three games, the Celtics found themselves playing from behind almost the entire time in Game 4. That was an unfortunate result on this end with Boston being my Game of the Year. Quite frankly, the Celtics should be disgusted with themselves that they aren’t at least tied with the Heat in this Eastern Conference Finals. The total points scored in this series is dead even (441-441) though four games. Now facing a “win or go home” scenario, the Celtics are the call again Friday night. Boston has outshot and outrebounded Miami in this series. But turnovers and second-chance opportunities have been the story as the Heat are averaging six more shot attempts per game, largely due to the fact they are forcing an average of 16 turnovers per game. In Games 2 & 4, the Heat have scored 43 points off 39 Celtics turnovers. That’s unacceptable if you are Boston. So was giving up 37 points to Tyler Herro in Game 4. But you already knew that, if you watched that game. Now is when I’ll remind you that Boston has been up by 14 in the 4Q of Game 1 (lost in OT), 15 in the 3Q of Game 2 (lost by 5) and then by as many as 20 in Game 3 (won). This reminds me a bit of Boston’s last series with Toronto. The four Celtics’ wins in that series were by a combined 48 points while the three losses were by a total of 11 (one coming in 2 OT and another at the buzzer). I still believe the Celtics are the better team here. Miami’s three-point shooting has gone down in every game. With the season on the line, look for Boston to take better care of the basketball tonight and improve to 12-5 ATS when off a SU loss as a favorite. (Miami just 4-9 ATS off SU win as dog). 10* Boston |
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09-23-20 | Celtics -3 v. Heat | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -108 | 31 h 31 m | Show |
10* Boston (8:35 ET): The Celtics were FINALLY able to put away the Heat in Game 3. It wasn’t easy, but they ended up prevailing 117-106 and thus covered the 3-pt spread. For Miami, the loss marked the first time this postseason that they lost a game in regulation. But don’t let that distinction fool you into thinking they’ve been anywhere close to dominant in the Eastern Conference Finals. In fact, it’s been quite the reverse. In all three games in this series, they’ve been down double-digits! The Heat’s propensity for starting slow caused Jimmy Butler to quip “I think it gets old, playing from behind consistently.” For the record, in this series the Heat have trailed by 14 in the 4Q of Game 1 (won in OT), by 15 in the 3Q of Game 2 (won by 5) and then by as many as 20 in Game 3. While they did end up losing by 11 points, the Heat actually got within 5 in the final minute of Game 3. This reminds me a bit of Boston’s last series with Toronto. The four Celtics’ wins in that series were by a combined 48 points while the three losses were by a total of 11 (one coming in 2 OT and another at the buzzer). The Celtics were pretty clearly better than the Raptors, although it took them seven games to advance. I also think the Celtics are better than the Heat. They could easily be up 3-0 in this series and thus be in position for the sweep Wednesday night. They’re not, but the way this series has gone is definitely worth noting. Miami’s shooting - both overall and from three-point range, has declined with each passing game in the series. In Game 3, Boston crushed Miami in points in the paint, 60-36. It must also be pointed out that Gordon Hayward is now back and while he didn’t have the greatest statline, his presence was still key to attacking Miami’s zone defense. The Celtics are also a better defensive team than the Heat. They have yet to allow more than 106 points in regulation this entire postseason! They are also now 23-8-1 ATS their L32 playoff games when favored. 10* Boston |
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09-19-20 | Celtics -2.5 v. Heat | Top | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
10* Boston (8:35 ET): There have been two teams this NBA postseason that have completely confounded me - Denver and Miami. While the Nuggets’ somewhat miraculous run seems likely to end in the Conference Finals, Miami is up 2-0 on Boston and now 10-1 SU/ATS overall in the playoffs. They are unbeaten in regulation as the only loss came in OT against Milwaukee, in Game 4 of the last round. But let’s not lose sight of the fact the Heat were trailing the Celtics by 13 points at halftime of the last game. Boston also led a majority of the way in Game 1. This despite shooting not shooting nearly as well as Miami did. They shot much better in Game 2 (50%) and also held the Heat in check from three-point range. Game 1 saw Miami make 44.4% of its 3PA, a number I guaranteed would go down in Game 2 and it did. So how did the Heat pull off the Game 2 comeback? It boiled down to basically one bad quarter for the Celtics as they were outscored 37-17 in the third. Speaking of “bad quarters,” Miami has had three in this series where they’ve scored less than 20 points … and yet somehow they’ve won both games! Maddening! Boston obviously HAS to win here, or the series would basically be over. While that doesn’t necessarily mean they WILL win, the Celtics have not dropped three in a row since the restart. Before losing Game 2, they’d been on a 6-0 ATS run off a loss dating back to August 6th. Their five playoff losses have been by a total of 19 points. 10* Boston |
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09-17-20 | Heat v. Celtics -2.5 | Top | 106-101 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
10* Boston (7:05 ET): Tip your cap to Miami for still being unbeaten in regulation this postseason. They are now 9-1 SU/ATS overall since the playoffs began. The only loss came in OT when they were looking to sweep Milwaukee and blew a late lead. Ironically, they needed overtime to rally and pick up the Game 1 victory over the Celtics. The Heat definitely has me “scratching my head” a bit as they are overachieving in my eyes. Game 1 marked the team’s NINTH OT win this season, easily the most in the league. I feel they’ve been quite fortunate throughout the 2019-20 campaign. Despite losing Game 1, I don’t think Boston should necessarily be hanging its collective head. By his own admission, Kemba Walker was “terrible” as he needed 19 shots just to get 19 points (was 1 of 9 on 3PA). It was Walker’s third straight under 20 points and 32.0% shooting. Yet the Celtics still only lost by three in overtime and actually led most of the way. They were up double digits entering the 4Q! And Miami shot much better than they did, especially from three-point range. This is the first time Boston has trailed in a series this postseason. They swept the 76ers in the first round, then won the first two games against Toronto. Three of the Celtics’ four losses this postseason have either come at the buzzer or in overtime. The four losses are by a total of 14 points. They pretty clearly were a better team than Toronto (despite needing seven games) and my power ratings have them as the better team here. Since August 6th, they are a perfect 6-0 ATS if they failed to cover in the previous game. Lay the short number in a pretty obvious bounce back situation. 10* Boston |
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09-15-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers -7.5 | Top | 104-89 | Loss | -102 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (9:05 ET): The Clippers letting this series get to a 7th game is pretty inexcusable. They have led by 16+ points in four of the six games, including each of the last two, both of which they somehow lost. The Game 6 collapse was stunning in nature as LA led by 18 nearing the midway point of the 3Q only to get blitzed the rest of the way. Denver ended up shooting a series-high 54.1% from the field, including 12 of 25 from 3-pt range, something that isn’t going to happen again here. I have no choice but to take the better team in Game 7. The Nuggets are now 5-0 SU/ATS when facing elimination this postseason. They are trying to become the first team in the history of the NBA Playoffs to come back from two 3-1 series deficits in the same postseason as that’s what they did vs. Utah in the last round. Keep in mind that I felt this was a lucky team BEFORE the playoffs got underway as they had a league-high 9 wins by 3 pts or less during the regular season. With all the come from behind wins, I believe Denver is living on borrowed time. While perfect SU/ATS when TRAILING in a playoff series, they are just 4-12 ATS when TIED in a playoff series the L3 years. The Clippers are 14-5 ATS off an outright loss as a favorite this season as well as 8-1 ATS off a loss by 10 or more. The large shooting discrepancy from Game 6 (Clippers shot just 41% as a team) won’t exist again tonight. While the franchise is now 0-7 SU in games when they have a chance to make the Conference Finals, this is the night that streak FINALLY comes to an end. Consider that Denver was outscored by 48 points in its first four games vs. Utah. It truly is a miracle that they are even still playing. Expect LA to get another big lead, only this time they’ll hold it. 10* LA Clippers |
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09-10-20 | Lakers v. Rockets +5 | Top | 110-100 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
10* Houston (7:05 ET): Despite being up 2-1 in this series, apparently not all is well in “Laker-land.” The team is reportedly griping over the fact its last eight games have all started at 8:30 ET or later. This lessens the advantage of no travel they say. Regardless, what they need to be more concerned about is the fact they have shot lights out each of the L2 games and still barely beaten the Rockets both times. I don’t think that LA is going to be able to shoot 55%+ from the field again and the fact their two wins (when doing so) have both been by 10 pts or less, that has me taking the points in Game 4. Game 1 was an easy Houston win, 112-97, as they held the Lakers to 42.2% overall shooting and 11 of 38 from three-point range. Coming off a second straight Game 1 loss (also lost Gm1 to Portland last round), the Lakers predictably stormed back with a fast start to Game 2, jumping out to a 36-20 lead after the 1Q. But by the end of the 3rd, that lead was entirely gone. Ultimately, the Lakers won 117-109, but they needed to shoot 56.6% overall to do so. Game 3 saw Houston lead most of the first half, but again the Lakers’ hot shooting was too much as they finished 55.1% for the game and won 112-102. To put it in “plain English,” I just don’t see the Lakers shooting that well again. Normally, when a team shoots that well, they win in blowout fashion. The fact LA didn’t do that in either Games 2 and 3 should be a concern. Tonight, I think it’s Houston that will rediscover its shooting touch in a game they need to have, so they’re not facing a 3-1 series deficit. In the L6 meetings, both teams are 3-3 straight up. 10* Houston |
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09-08-20 | Lakers v. Rockets +5 | Top | 112-102 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
10* Houston (9:05 ET): Despite falling way behind early (trailed by as many as 21 in the 2nd quarter), the Rockets erased that entire deficit in Game 1 and actually led going into the final quarter. But their usually efficient offense betrayed them over those last 12 minutes as they were held to just 17 points. I still cashed an Over bet as the Lakers finished the game at 56.6% from the field and won 117-109. But they won’t shoot that well again tonight and I’m taking the undervalued Rockets plus the points in Game 3. Houston needs more from Russell Westbrook if they are to win this series. The All-Star was pretty bad in Game 2 as he was just 4 of 15 shooting, including 1 of 7 from behind the arc. Yet still, the Rockets led going into the 4th quarter and that’s with the Lakers shooting a ridiculous percentage for the game! It was actually tied for the most points allowed by the Rockets in regulation since the playoffs began. They’ve been a lot better defensively than we’re accustomed to seeing. One thing that’s evident when watching the Lakers is that beyond LeBron James and Anthony Davis, this roster is very unimpressive. That All-Star duo accounted for 62 of the team’s 117 pts in Game 2 and did so on an uber-efficient 25 of 41 shooting. But that can’t happen every game. The Lakers are just 4-10 ATS in the bubble, evidence that they’ve been overvalued and sure enough my own power rankings indicate that this line should be shorter. 10* Houston |
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09-05-20 | Nuggets +9 v. Clippers | Top | 110-101 | Win | 100 | 29 h 11 m | Show |
10* Denver (9:05 ET): Classic “zig zag theory” in this one as the Nuggets are coming off a blowout loss in Game 1, but should certainly play a lot better here in Game 2. Basically one big quarter (the 2nd) was the difference Thursday night as the Clippers outscored Denver 38-20 in that 12 minute stretch. The other three quarters, LA had only a five-point edge, but it still ended up being 120-97 in the end. I don’t see the Clips shooting 57.1% from the field again nor do I see Denver only making 25% of their threes. Take the points. The fact the Nuggets were coming off a seven-game series w/ Utah didn’t really help their cause heading into Game 1. They had just one day off in between series. The Clippers had three. Jamal Murray, who had that memorable 142 point three-game stretch against Utah (Gms 4-6), was held to 12 points in Game 1 on just 5 of 15 shooting. Perhaps that was fatigue. Whatever the reason, the good news for Game 2 is that Denver is a perfect 6-0 ATS the L2 years when trailing in a playoff series. My own personal power rating said that the Nuggets were a bit overvalued in the series with the Jazz. It’s somewhat ironic then that those same numbers say they are being undervalued in this series. I’ve got the line at around -4/-4.5. That’s a pretty big difference. I abstained from taking the points in Game 1 due to the difference in rest (cashed the Under instead), but will “swoop in” here and do so. 10* Denver |
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09-04-20 | Bucks -5 v. Heat | Top | 100-115 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (6:35 ET): In both Eastern Conference semifinal series, the top seed fell into an 0-2 hole. Yesterday we saw the Raptors pick up a much needed win over the Celtics, nailing a three at the buzzer to substantially aid their chances of survival. The top seeded Bucks hope for less “nail-biting” on Friday when they face a “must win” against Miami, who is undefeated (6-0 SU/ATS) since the playoffs began. I have to admit that I am stunned how these first two games have unfolded. Milwaukee has to win tonight. Lay the points. It certainly seemed as if we were headed for overtime in Game 2 Weds nights. But the Bucks foolishly “returned the favor” in fouling a jump-shooter in the closing seconds. In their instance, they fouled with no time left on the clock, allowing Jimmy Butler to sink the GW free throws. Though Milwaukee has been able to score 60+ pts in the 1H of both games, they have struggled in crunch time and only shot 43.5% overall in Game 2 (7 of 25 from 3-pt range). Another issue has been the defense allowing Miami to hit 29 of 76 three-point attempts. The Bucks were #1 in defensive efficiency during the regular season. None of the Bucks’ gaudy regular season statistics will mean much if they don’t win tonight. They are now basically hoping for a reverse of what happened to them in LY’s Eastern Conference Final against Toronto when a 2-0 lead turned into a series loss. The Bucks have lost three in a row only one time all season and that was in a four-day stretch out on the West Coast. Here in the bubble, they are 3 for 3 - SU and ATS - when off B2B losses. Those wins have all come by double digits (avg of 14 PPG). 10* Milwaukee |
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09-03-20 | Raptors -1 v. Celtics | Top | 104-103 | Push | 0 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
10* Toronto (6:35 ET): The Eastern Conference side of the bracket has been turned “upside down” with the top two seeds (Milwaukee, Toronto) both down 0-2 in their respective series. In the case of the Raptors, they have yet to solve the “Boston mystery” in that they are 0-3 vs. the Celtics in the bubble and 11-0 SU against everyone else. Game 2 saw the defending NBA Champs blow a double-digit lead in the 2H and lose 102-99. But I’m not prepared to “count them out” yet and will take them here in this “must-win” situation. Boston has won 10 of its last 11 including all six playoff games where they have held the opposition to just 99.2 PPG. They swept the Sixers in Round 1 (three of four games decided by single digits) and have subsequently held the Raptors under 100 pts in both games of this series. Throw in a 122-100 win back on August 7th and it really seems as if the Celtics have Toronto’s number. But let’s not forget how the Raptors were down 0-2 in the Eastern Conference Finals against Milwaukee last year. They would of course go on to win the NBA Finals. Such a run may not happen again in 2020, but I just can’t see them losing three straight. The Raptors have lost three in a row only two times this season. It makes little sense that they could look so good against “everyone else” while struggling against one particular opponent. So far, they’re shooting below 40% for the series and are 21 of 80 from three-point range. Look for improved shooting tonight in Game 3. Boston was just 42.1% from the floor in Game 2, but made 15 of its 36 three-point attempts (39.5%) with Marcus Smart in particular going “off.” Three-point shooting has been the key for the Celtics in both games, but they can’t live off that every night. 10* Toronto |
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09-02-20 | Heat v. Bucks -5 | Top | 116-114 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (6:35 ET): I’ve apparently misread the Heat as they are very much for real this postseason. A first round sweep of the Pacers and a Game 1 upset of top seed Milwaukee has them a perfect 5-0 ATS. I did not think Miami was anything special as a 5-seed in this tournament. They did have a better YTD point differential than the Pacers, but not by much. The team also was a lot better at home than on the road prior to lockdown, so their success in the bubble (neutral site) is a bit surprising. The Heat’s overall won-loss record is also propped up by an extremely fortunate 8-1 mark in OT games this year. No other team had more than five overtime wins and it was easily the league’s best win % in OT. The Bucks were the overwhelming best team in the league prior to the shutdown. They had the best record, point differential and net efficiency by a pretty wide margin. That they lost Game 1 shouldn’t set off too many alarm bells. The same thing happened last round vs. Orlando and they stormed back to take the next four games, all by double digits. Another thing Milwaukee has going for it is a 36-15 ATS mark the L3 seasons when coming off a SU loss as a favorite. Meanwhile, Miami is just 1-7 ATS this season off a SU win as an underdog. Game 1 saw the Bucks shoot better than the Heat and make four more three-pointers. But a big difference was foul shooting as Miami made 25 of its 27 attempts while Milwaukee made only 14 of its 26 (Giannis Antetokounmpo was the biggest offender, going 4 of 12). The Heat also made more 2-pt FG’s due to second chance opportunities. Antetokounmpo should have a bounce back game here, like he did in Game 2 vs. Orlando when he went 28-20. His teammates should help deliver a big bounce back win. 10* Milwaukee |
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09-01-20 | Jazz +1.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 78-80 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
8* Utah (8:00 ET): I came into this series believing Utah to be the better team and see no reason why I should come off that point for this deciding Game 7. Normally, handicapping a Game 7 in the NBA Playoff simply comes down to the question of “who’s at home?” But the 2020 season is anything but normal. Also not normal would be the Jazz blowing a 3-1 series lead. They have never lost a series that they led 3-1. Conversely, Denver has never won a series in which it trailed 3-1. History will NOT be made Tuesday night. Game 6 marked the first time in the series that the Jazz did NOT have the lead entering the 4Q. They have outscored Denver in the series by an average of 4.3 PPG. They were up 15 in the third quarter of Game 5, meaning the Nuggets were perilously close to having their season end. Something else that’s interesting is how the individual games have been priced as the series has progressed. Denver was favored in Games 1 & 2 while Utah was favored in the last four. Now the market has moved back to the Nuggets favor. While the Jazz have been held to a series low 107 points in B2B games, Donovan Mitchell continues to do his part and will almost certainly break LeBron James’ record for most points in a playoff series. Denver’s Jamal Murray could do the same, but it’s the Nuggets’ defense that I trust less in this situation. They were just 17th in defensive efficiency coming into the series (Utah was 12th) and only 7th in the Western Conference in net efficiency rating. I thought they were the “phoniest” of the higher seeds and must play accordingly. 8* Utah |
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09-01-20 | Celtics v. Raptors -1.5 | Top | 102-99 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
analysis soon 10* Toronto (5:35 ET): The Raptors have only lost twice in the bubble, but both times were to the Celtics and each has come in rather convincing fashion. Back in the seeding games, they were beaten 122-100. Game 1 on Sunday was every bit as bad (lost 112-94) as the defending NBA Champs have not led at any point in the two games vs. Boston and trailed by double digits at the half both times. I’m counting on a big bounce back in Game 2 though. Toronto is 13-5 SU off a loss this year, winning by nearly 7.0 PPG. In Game 1, the Raptors shot only 36.9% from the field and were 10 of 40 from three-point range. That’s not going to get it done. It was their worst offensive showing in the bubble, at least in terms of points scored, with the first game against Boston marking the previous low. I’m not concerned though as this is a resilient bunch that has done its own damage defensively since the restart. There have been only four games where they’ve allowed more than 110 points. Again, two were vs. Boston, but another was a game where they scored 150 points. There is no reason to believe the Celtics have some sort of “mastery” over the Raptors. Six players were in double figures in the Game 1 victory, but that’s as likely to be repeated as the unusually poor shooting we saw from Toronto. Remember that Gordon Hayward is still out. Earlier, I mentioned how good the Raptors have been off a SU loss this year. Well, if that loss was by double digits, they have gone 5-1 ATS the next game. I can’t see them losing two straight. 10* Toronto |
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08-31-20 | Rockets v. Thunder +5.5 | Top | 100-104 | Win | 101 | 24 h 29 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma City (9:05 ET): The Thunder took a major “L” on Saturday, losing Game 5 by 34 points (114-80), which has them on the verge of elimination. The big story heading into the last game was the return of Russell Westbrook for Houston. Westbrook played 23 minutes and had a 7-6-7 statline, which really isn’t that impressive, but keep in mind it was his 1st game since the restart. The other story was what a HORRIBLE shooting night it turned into for Oklahoma City. They missed 39 of 46 three-pointers and finished w/ a 31.5 FG% for the game. Those numbers obviously WILL improve here in Game 6. Helping OKC improve offensively will be a full game of Dennis Schroeder. Schroeder was leading the team with 19 points, 18 of those coming in the second quarter, when he got ejected for a skirmish with Houston’s P.J. Tucker. While the Thunder have now suffered three double-digit losses in the series, a number of key trends indicate they’ll bounce back Monday. Chief among them is a 10-2 SU/8-3-1 ATS record when coming off a double digit loss. The Thunder were the best ATS team in the league when the season was stopped in March. They are 27-14 ATS as underdogs this season as well as a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS when coming off a game in which they were held to 85 points or less. On the other hand, the 80 points allowed by Houston in Game 5 established a new-season low. When you think back to the fact OKC was FAVORED to win Game 1 of this series, this number looks like a great value. Classic zig-zag theory. Take the points. 8* Oklahoma City |
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08-30-20 | Nuggets v. Jazz -2.5 | Top | 119-107 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
10* Utah (8:35 ET): The Jazz missed out on their first opportunity to eliminate the Nuggets, but don’t look for them to miss a second time. They were up by as many as 15 points in the third quarter of Game 5 and it very much looked like they’d squash Denver for good. Something of real note from this series is that Utah has led going into the fourth quarter in all five games! The Nuggets have been extremely fortunate in head to head play w/ the Jazz so far this season. All four wins have been by six points or less, two of them in overtime. That good fortune (and their season) ends tonight. Lay the points. Meanwhile, two of Utah’s wins in the series have been by 19 and 37 points. Though they started the series as a slight underdog (were getting points in Games 1 & 2), I had them ranked as the better team. They’ve been favored in each of the last three games now and while they’re just 1-2 ATS, I feel they have very much looked like the better team. Remember that the Nuggets posted only the 7th best net efficiency rating in the West during the regular season. A first round elimination is something that would not shock me in the least. Jamal Murray has carried Denver in this series with 154 points in five games. But what’s crazy is that Utah’s Donovan Mitchell has been even better with 188 points, just 53 shy of the NBA’s all-time record for most points scored by an individual player (LeBron James) in an entire series. The teams are a combined 0-5 ATS this season when playing on three or more days rest, so no edge there. The edge is that Utah has simply been the better team over the course of the season and has scored 38 more points than Denver in this series. 10* Utah |
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08-30-20 | Clippers v. Mavs +10.5 | Top | 111-97 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
8* Dallas (3:35 ET): The Mavericks are facing elimination this afternoon, yet are the biggest underdogs they’ve been for any game in the series. That’s due in no small part to two things. One is they were absolutely hammered in Game 5, 154-111. The other is injuries. They are without Kristaps Porzingis while Luka Doncic is dealing with an ankle injury. Still, I disagree with the oddsmakers inflating this number so much. In many ways, this is similar to yday’s game between the Lakers and Blazers (who were w/o Damian Lillard) where the underdog ended up covering. Take the points. As for what happened in the last game, do not expect a repeat of that to take place today. The Clippers shot a ridiculous 63.1% for the game and were an even more ridiculous 22 of 35 from three-point range. After shooting just 29 percent in the first four games, Paul George stepped up with 35 points. There’s some obvious regression set to take place here for LA and I’m not sure the extra days off help them. They are only 1-3 ATS playing w/ 3+ days rest this season. The Mavs didn’t have Porzingis either of the last two games. While Game 5 was a disaster, they won Game 4. In fact, no team has been able to win B2B games in this series as the famed zig zag theory is a perfect 4-0 ATS. Doncic didn’t shoot well in the last game, but still had 22 points. Dallas has the most efficient offense in the league and will not go quietly. They are so much better than what they showed in the last game. 8* Dallas |
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08-29-20 | Thunder v. Rockets -5 | Top | 80-114 | Win | 100 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
10* Houston (6:35 ET): After largely dominating the first two games of this series, the Rockets now find themselves tied 2-2 with Thunder as this is now a best of three. But let’s look at the series. Houston’s two wins were by 15 and 13, games in which they largely led from start to finish. Oklahoma City has won in overtime (Game 3) and then a three-point game (Game 4) where they rallied back from a 15-point deficit. Now Russell Westbrook is set to return for Game 5 and in my mind that clearly makes the Rockets the better side. Lay the points. This series has been kind to us as I had the Under in Game 2 (cashed by double digits) and then OKC in Game 3 (outright winner). With the Thunder off an upset win in overtime, I thought it best to “lay off” Game 4 as I wasn’t all that confident the Rockets would bounce back. For a while I was kicking myself, especially when they led 93-80 in the third quarter. But the Thunder then stormed back, securing their 17th win of the season when trailing entering the 4th quarter (league best). Oklahoma City has largely overachieved this season. Just consider the comeback stat I just mentioned and also the fact they had the best ATS record in the league when the season was shut down. But I don’t see them shooting 61% again in the 1st quarter nor do I see a +30 edge in bench points, both of which we saw in Game 4. A third straight upset seems unlikely tonight as the Rockets own a pretty considerable +25 scoring differential in regulation for the series. All reports are saying that Westbrook has looked great ("explosive" is the exact word I heard). Obviously, his return has factored into this line. But if I was willing to take Houston at the previous price w/o Westbrook, I'm certainly willing to back them w/ him, only laying a few more points. The couple day break has benefited the Rockets. 10* Houston |
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08-24-20 | Pacers +6.5 v. Heat | Top | 87-99 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
10* Indiana (6:35 ET): I’m going to the well one more (final?) time with the Pacers, who are down 0-3 in this series, which is a hole no team in NBA history has ever come back from. Furthermore, they are 0-3 ATS against the Heat with losses coming by 12, 9 and 9 points. I’m a little perplexed here as my numbers clearly state these teams are about even, but Miami has obviously looked better through the first three games. Still this is the biggest number Indiana has gotten all series and I’m taking it. Boston and Toronto have already swept their respective first round series and with Milwaukee advancing at the expense of Orlando considered a formality, the entire Eastern Conference side of the bracket is looking like a bit of a “wash.” But note I did take Philadelphia (facing elimination) plus the points on Sunday and they covered the spread, despite their season still ending. I expect the same level of desperation here from the Pacers, who obviously don’t want their season to end like this. Miami enjoyed a massive advantage at the free throw line in Game 3, attempting 52 tries (made 43) while Indiana only took 28 (and made 21). That’s more than the difference in the game right there and I expect the discrepancy to be rectified here in Game 4 after Nate McMillan’s postgame comments. T.J. Warren, who was one of the top players in the seeding games (averaged more than 30 PPG) has been held to only 19 PPG in this series and I expect more from him Monday night as well. Prior to Game 2, Indiana had been 6-0 ATS off its L6 SU losses. Miami is still only 8-20 ATS off an ATS win. 10* Indiana |
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08-24-20 | Bucks v. Magic +13.5 | Top | 121-106 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
8* Orlando (1:35 ET): Since upsetting the Bucks in Game 1, the Magic have lost by 15 and 14 pts respectively the last two games. Both times they were blitzed early only to “rally” late to make things interesting from a pointspread perspective. I think we all expect Milwaukee to move on when this series is said and done, but in Game 4 look for Orlando to keep things a bit more interesting. Take the points. Orlando entered this series undermanned with no Aaron Gordon or Michael Carter-Williams. Still that didn’t prevent them from pulling the outright upset in Game 1. Since then, it’s been a combination of bad offense and bad defense. Game 2 saw the Magic make just 34.8% of their FG attempts including only 7 of 33 from three-point range. Game 3, they shot much better from behind the arc (19 of 40), but that hardly mattered as they watched the Bucks make 56.5% of their FG attempts on their way to building a 30+ lead in the 2H. Despite being overmatched these last two games, the Magic still have yet to lose by more than 15 pts in the series. I expect them to be a lot better defensively in this game as this was one of the top five scoring defenses during the regular season. The Bucks will probably enter overconfident. Before Game 3, they had been 0-6 ATS their L6 times off a SU win. That includes 0-3 here in the bubble. 8* Orlando |
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08-23-20 | Clippers v. Mavs +8 | Top | 133-135 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
8* Dallas (3:35 ET): While Luka Doncic remains a game-time decision for the Mavericks, I’m going to go ahead and take the points regardless. Were Doncic (sprained ankle) to play here in Game 3, then we’re obviously getting tremendous value. Even if he doesn’t, I still feel this is an overreaction by the oddsmakers for a matchup where my power rankings indicate there’s only a 1.5-point difference between the two teams. Doncic, as good as he is, wouldn’t be worth 7+ points in my estimation. All year, I’ve said the Mavs were better than their record and this is their chance to show I wasn’t lying. From a pure numbers perspective, Dallas was the third best team in the West during the regular season (behind only both LA teams) as they had the third best net efficiency rating and point differential. A league-worst 2-11 SU record in games decided by three points or less is what doomed them to the 7-seed and this matchup with the Clippers but all hope is not lost, at least not yet anyway. Both Dallas losses in this series have been by eight points while they won Game 2 by 13. Game 1 saw them “in the money” most of the way before fading in the final moments. In Game 3, they had to overcome the loss of Doncic, something they’ll potentially be better prepared for here. The league’s most efficient offense, with or without Doncic, should still be able to cover here. Take the points. 8* Dallas |
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08-23-20 | Celtics v. 76ers +8 | Top | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (1:05 ET): It’s “win or go home” for the Sixers this afternoon and despite the obvious disadvantage they are at, I expect them to at the very least “compete” here, if not pull the outright upset. Two of the three losses to Boston have been by eight points and in Game 3, they actually led 94-92 with just under two minutes remaining, only to be outscored 10-0 the rest of the way. They were that close despite shooting a hideous 29.5% for the game, a percentage which should obviously rise dramatically today. Take the points. The loss of Ben Simmons may have “cooked” the Sixers season, but let’s not forget that Boston is now without Gordon Hayward for the foreseeable future. The Sixers have defended well in two of the three games here, holding Boston to 42.2% shooting in Game 1 and then 41.4% in Game 3. The Celtics were also 18 of 62 from three-point range in those two games. So it’s not like they’ve been shooting the lights out either. Assuming they don’t go “off” like they did in Game 2, this figures to be another low-scoring game. The difference now is that Philly is getting more points than they have in any previous game in the series. There is a value on the team down 0-3 in the series as most are willing to write them off while already advancing Boston to the next round. The Sixers are 5-2 SU this season when faced with a three-game losing streak. They will not go quietly on Sunday. 10* Philadelphia |
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08-22-20 | Rockets v. Thunder +3.5 | Top | 107-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma City (6:05 ET): Like the Pacers, the Thunder also have their proverbial “backs against the wall” on Saturday. They are down 0-2 in this series and responsible for the other loss (besides Indiana) for “zig-zag” bettors. Perhaps it's difficult to fathom now, but OKC was actually favored to win Game 1. That was a case of bad pricing, but with the public firmly OFF their bandwagon now, I’m grabbing the points with the Thunder for Game 3. Important to note that OKC has not lost more than three in a row all season. (They lost their final seeding game, FYI). Houston hasn’t had Russell Westbrook’s services in this series nor have they needed them. Six Rockets are averaging double figures in this series, led by James Harden’s (somewhat modest) 28.7 PPG. This is somewhat of a “best case scenario” for the Rockets being up 2-0 despite Westbrook not playing. But they did trail at halftime and after three quarters in Game 2. Oklahoma City had the league’s best ATS record in the regular season. They also have a history of coming up big in this spot, going 5-0 SU the last five Game 3’s where they dropped the first two games of the series. While it’s a little scary that Houston is up 2-0 despite not playing its best, the Thunder got 21 fewer points in Game 2 from Gallinari & Adams than in Game 1. They should both bounce back. 8* Oklahoma City |
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08-22-20 | Pacers +5 v. Heat | Top | 115-124 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
8* Indiana (3:35 ET): Admittedly, I’ve been on the wrong side (Indiana) in both games of this series. But I’m not ready to come off the point that I have these teams essentially evenly rated. Excluding the Boston-Philadelphia series, “zig-zag” players (taking ATS losers from the previous game) are 8-2 ATS in the NBA Playoffs. One of those two losses was obviously the Pacers in Game 2. But with their backs against the wall today (season pretty much on the line) and getting points, I’m coming back with them again. Indiana had the same net efficiency rating as Miami coming into this series and actually rated higher on the defensive end, which is something I put a lot of stock into this time of year. The respective YTD point differentials of these two teams was pretty similar as well. It’s not as if Indiana has been blown out in either game. They’ve lost by 12 and 9 points. Game 1 saw them lose Victor Oladipo to an eye injury in the 1st quarter and still it was a one-possession game heading into the 4th. Not since the first game of the bubble has Indiana allowed more than 114 points. Theoretically, that should make them a live dog. Miami shot 51.4% from three-point range in Game 2, which won’t happen again today. T.J. Warren, who averaged 31.0 PPG in the seeding games on 57.4% shooting, has been held to 18.0 PPG in the first two games of this series. His numbers should improve. The Pacers aren’t dead yet. 8* Indiana |
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08-22-20 | Bucks v. Magic +12.5 | Top | 121-107 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
8* Orlando (1:05 ET): After “shocking the world” in Game 1 (won 122-110), the Magic predictably dropped Game 2 to the Bucks by a score of 111-96. After shooting so well in the first game, there was a dramatic dropoff in Game 2 with the Magic making only 34.8% of their total shot attempts including just 7 of 33 from three-point range. Now that Milwaukee has proven the “zig zag” theory (take ATS loser of previous game to cover) correct, this time it’s Orlando’s turn. Take the points. The offensive effort turned in by the Magic in Game 1 is something we are unlikely to see again. But certainly they should shoot better than they did on Thursday when they missed 25 of their first 28 FG attempts. Evan Fournier, the team’s second leading scorer, is making only 33% of his FG attempts in this series. He should improve today. There have been no issues for leading scorer Nikola Vucevic, who has averaged 33.5 points and 12.0 rebounds. Though not quite as efficient as the Bucks are defensively, Orlando isn’t bad at that end of the floor. In fact, they were top five in scoring defense during the regular season, holding opponents to just 108.3 PPG. MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo is shooting just 45.8% in the series and has 12 turnovers. Two days ago, we saw a Brooklyn team catching double digits and coming off a DD loss, cover wire-to-wire. Favorites have gone 8-0 ATS the L2 days in the NBA Playoffs. It’s time for the dogs to “get some back.” 8* Orlando |
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08-21-20 | Celtics v. 76ers +5.5 | Top | 102-94 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (6:35 ET): The Sixers are down 0-2 in the series, so that all but makes this a “must-win.” Of course, as I’ve said many times previously, “must win” doesn’t necessarily mean “will win.” But I like Philly to at least cover the spread in Game 3, something they’ve yet to do in the series. They were a lot closer in Game 1 (lost 109-101) than they were in Game 2 (lost 128-101) but I expect improved numbers across the board tonight. There’s been much conversation about Philly’s limited offensive abilities, especially now that they are without Ben Simmons. The team shot just 41.2% in Game 2 including 5 of 21 on three-point attempts. They obviously need to be better in Game 3 and I believe they will be. The three-point line has been huge for Boston so far in the series as they are out-scoring the Sixers 87-42 from distance. But they didn’t make a very high percentage in Game 1 and I don’t see them shooting 25 of 43 2-pt attempts again like they did in Game 2. The Sixers are just 3-7 ATS in the bubble with one of those covers coming in the meaningless seeding game finale. As overmatched as they’ve looked against Boston, I expect the Sixers best effort of the series to come tonight. The Celtics don’t have Gordon Hayward any longer, remember that. Philadelphia has covered five straight times when coming off a loss by 10 or more points. 8* Philadelphia |
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08-20-20 | Heat v. Pacers +4.5 | Top | 109-100 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
10* Indiana (1:05 ET): Despite the Game 1 loss, I believe Indiana is still being undervalued in this series. My own personal power ratings indicate this matchup should be a near pick ‘em. The Pacers and Heat have similar YTD point differentials and net efficiency ratings, the latter metric being dead even. Therefore, I’m not sure why the Heat are laying this many points. Also key is the Pacers’ 5th place ranking in defensive efficiency, something I highly value this time of year. Let’s try taking the points again for Game 2. Game 1 was a back & forth affair and a one-point game heading into the 4Q. This despite Indiana losing Victor Oladipo to an eye injury early in the 1Q. That was ill-timed as Oladipo just had his minutes restriction lifted and was expected to be a big part of the Pacers’ offense in this series (along with TJ Warren). Despite losing Oladipo, the Pacers kept with Miami most of the game. That’s a good sign then if Oladipo can’t go Thursday. He’s currently listed as day to day despite the team saying there were no initial concerns. Indiana went 6-2 SU/ATS in its seeding games while Miami was just 3-5 SU/ATS. Since the opening win over Philadelphia (127-121), the Pacers haven’t given up more than 114 points in any game. They are also 10-2 ATS this season when coming off a DD loss. Miami is just 8-15 ATS off a DD win and is 17-36 ATS in that situation the L3 seasons. We saw the “zig zag” theory come through in a pair of afternoon games yesterday. I’ll go w/ it again. 10* Indiana |
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08-19-20 | Mavs +6.5 v. Clippers | Top | 127-114 | Win | 100 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
8* Dallas (9:05 ET): By some metrics, the Mavericks were the third best team in the West this year. They posted the third best net efficiency rating (+4.2) and the third best point differential (+4.9 per game). Unfortunately, what determines a team’s seeding is its won-loss record. In that regard, Dallas finished 7th, earning them a tough 1st round matchup with the Clippers. The Mavs are better than their record. If it feels like I said this all before, that’s because this is all from my Game 1 analysis! Now Game 1 didn’t work out for the Mavs. They lost 118-110 despite 42 points from Luka Doncic, the most ever by a player making his playoff debut. Clearly they were hurt by the ejection of Kristaps Porzingis early in the second half. Yet they remained within striking distance until the final minute. A 110-point effort is below the standard set by the team that had the #1 offensive efficiency during the regular season. While Dallas is just 2-7 ATS in the bubble and the Clippers 7-2 ATS, my own personal power rankings continue to have this number closer to +2, so there’s value on the dog. Half of the Mavs’ bubble losses have been by four points or less. Another zig-zag opportunity. 8* Dallas |
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08-19-20 | Jazz +4 v. Nuggets | Top | 124-105 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
8* Utah (4:05 ET): I’m standing pat with my read on this series. I took the Jazz in Game 1 and that should have been an outright win. Up four, they had the ball with 1:54 remaining. That’s when Donovan Mitchell (who scored 57 points!) was called for an 8-second violation. Denver answered with a three, which followed a backcourt violation that wasn’t called. From there, the game went to overtime where the Nuggets won and covered 135-125. It was the second time in the bubble that the Nuggets beat the Jazz in overtime. Winning close is something we’ve seen far too often from Denver. It’s how they ended up with the 3-seed in the West despite having the Conference’s 7th best net efficiency rating. Utah knows this all too well. They are now 0-4 SU vs. the Nuggets this season with Monday’s OT loss following three that came by a total of 11 points. As I said in my Game 1 analysis, “all things equal, I have Utah rated as the better team here.” Now the Jazz are without Mike Conley for at least one more game and Bojan Bogdanovic. But Mitchell’s 57 points in Game 1 show me he can certainly carry the scoring load. Will he match that in Game 2? Probably not. But Denver won’t shoot as well as it did from 3-point range (53.7%!) again either. The Nuggets have defensive issues as they’ve allowed 125+ points in all but two games since the restart. Furthermore, they are dealing with the absences of Will Barton and Gary Harris. Take the points. 8* Utah |
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08-19-20 | Nets +11.5 v. Raptors | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
8* Brooklyn (1:35 ET): We all know the Nets entered the bubble short-handed. But that didn’t stop them from going 5-3 SU/6-2 ATS in the seeding games (despite being an underdog in all eight games). With so many scoring options on the sideline, Caris LeVert picked up the slack. The team scored 115+ points in every seeding game but one. For the first time in team history, the Nets scored 115 or more in six consecutive games. They beat Milwaukee and the Clippers outright while nearly keeping Portland out of the postseason mix (lost by 1 in a game where they had nothing to play for while the Blazers had to win). Now Game 1 against the Raptors obviously didn’t go well. The Nets fell into an early 33-point hole while holding LeVert to just 15 points. On the bright side, they didn’t roll over. At one point, Brooklyn got the margin back down to eight points. LeVert had a career-high 15 assists, continuing a positive trend that saw him average 6.7 of those per game in the seeding games. Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot had a career-high 26 points. Things got out of hand again late, but that’ll happen when you fall into such an early hole. Playoff underdogs off a double digit loss and getting double digits from the oddsmakers in the next game are prime underdogs for the famed “zig zag” theory. Clearly, not many are giving the Nets much of a chance in this series. After all, Toronto is the defending NBA Champion and won Game 1 by 24 points. But Brooklyn is 11-8 ATS this season off a DD loss. Meanwhile, the Raptors are 9-14 ATS off a DD win this year. The big key from Game 1 was Toronto shot 50.0% from 3-pt range while Brooklyn was at just 31%. The discrepancy won’t be as severe this time around. Take the point. 8* Brooklyn |
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08-18-20 | Heat v. Pacers +4.5 | Top | 113-101 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
10* Indiana (4:05 ET): This is yet another Game 1 where my own personal power ratings differ greatly from the actual line. To me, this series is a pick ‘em. The Pacers and Heat have similar YTD point differentials and net efficiency ratings, the latter metric being dead even. Therefore, I’m not sure why the Heat are laying this many points. Also key is the Pacers’ 5th place ranking in defensive efficiency, something I highly value this time of year. I’m definitely taking the points here in Game 1 and obviously would not be surprised at an outright upset. The Pacers have performed better than expected here in the bubble. They’ve gone 6-2 SU/ATS and played as well defensively as any team has. Victor Oladipo reversing his decision to ‘opt out’ probably has a lot to do with the team exceeding expectations. But make no mistake about it, TJ Warren has been the breakout star here as he had 53 pts in the opener vs. Philadelphia and shot an astounding 65.3% from the field in the first three games. Over the L7 contests, Indiana has not allowed more than 114 pts to any opponent, which includes Miami twice. Warren vs. Miami’s Jimmy Butler seems to be the headline story for this series. Neither player suited up when these teams just played Friday. The Pacers won that game anyway 109-92. They did lose the first matchup by a similar margin (114-92), but that was one of only three victories in the bubble so far for the Heat and it was a terrible shooting night for the Pacers. Miami simply hasn’t been great away from home this year and doesn’t have a “go-to” second option for scoring behind Butler. Something else I like is the Pacers’ 10-3 ATS record playing on three days rest the L3 seasons. 10* Indiana |
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08-17-20 | Mavs +6 v. Clippers | Top | 110-118 | Loss | -104 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
10* Dallas (9:00 ET): By some metrics, the Mavericks were the third best team in the West this year. They posted the third best net efficiency rating (+4.2) and the third best point differential (+4.9 per game). Unfortunately, what determines a team’s seeding is its won-loss record. In that regard, Dallas finished 7th, earning them a tough 1st round matchup with the Clippers. I’ve been through this before, but the Mavs are better than their WL record. I think they are a great value here in Game 1. Dallas hasn’t been all that great in the bubble as they went just 3-5 SU and saw the aforementioned net efficiency/point differential go down. Interesting to note, they were favored in only two of eight games. So it’s not like oddsmakers were expecting a better showing. There were several games with blown leads though and three of the five losses were by three points or less. That’s been a problem for the Mavs all season as they are a league-worst 2-11 SU in games decided by three points or less. Fortunately, we’ve got a workable pointspread here that would negate that issue. The Mavs have posted the league’s best offensive efficiency this year. They are one of just two teams better than the Clippers in that department. The Clips have only lost three times in the bubble, but twice they were a favorite of 9 or more. So there’s a precedent for them getting upset. I am not ready to give up on this Mavs team as my own personal power rankings indicate this number should be closer to 2 points! 10* Dallas |
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08-17-20 | Jazz +5 v. Nuggets | Top | 125-135 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
8* Utah (1:35 ET): The Jazz will enter this series against the Nuggets short-handed as PG Mike Conley has left the bubble for the birth of his son. Ed Davis is out too. They were already without second-leading scorer Bojan Bogdanovic and his 20 PPG. But this is all about fading a Nuggets team I believe to be highly overrated. I was hoping that somehow we’d get a Nuggets-Mavericks 1st round series as that would have been Dallas’ for the taking. But Utah plus the points will have to do here. All things equal, I’ve got the Jazz rated as the better team here. Now the loss of Conley and Bogdanovic obviously has to be accounted for. But let’s not forget that Denver has been without multiple starters the entire time in the bubble. Neither Will Barton nor Gary Harris has played a single game and their statuses are listed as questionable for Game 1. Just last week, Utah was FAVORED to beat Denver. This line seems like an overreaction to the Conley news, plain and simple. Maybe the line also has to do with the fact Denver is 3-0 SU vs. Utah this season. But those three wins have been by a total of 11 points. The most recent, last week, saw the Nuggets win by two (134-132) in double overtime. The Jazz have a higher defensive efficiency rating than the Nuggets, which is something I really value this time of year. Denver not only gave up 125+ pts in all but two games in the bubble, they have also lost the last three games. Utah still has Donovan Mitchell to carry the load. In the meeting last week, Utah led 63-49 at halftime and somehow lost despite going 22 of 55 from three-point range while Denver was just 9 of 37. 8* Utah |
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08-15-20 | Grizzlies +6 v. Blazers | Top | 122-126 | Win | 100 | 23 h 48 m | Show |
10* Memphis (2:35 ET): My numbers say the Suns were better than both of these teams. However, a superior net efficiency rating (for the whole season), or even an 8-0 SU/ATS run in the bubble was good enough to get them in. So we’ve got Portland & Memphis duking it out for the right to face LeBron & the Lakers in Round 1 of the playoffs proper. Memphis needs to defeat Portland both today AND tomorrow to qualify while Portland only needs to win one of the two games. If the Blazers win Saturday, then they move on and the Grizzlies go home. Despite a remarkable showing from Damian Lillard the L3 games (154 points by himself!), the Blazers were still only able to defeat Philadelphia, Dallas & Brooklyn by a combined SEVEN points. Philadelphia played short-handed (no Simmons or Embiid) while the other two opponents had nothing to play for and sat starters. Still, the Blazers got a run for their money every time. Scoring is not an issue for Portland, but defense is. They’ve allowed 121 or more points in four straight games and six of eight here in the bubble. They have the 4th worst defensive efficiency in the LEAGUE this season. Not much has gone right for the Grizzlies in the bubble. They came in holding the 8th seed, but went just 2-6 SU and now have to win two straight days to make the playoffs. But that’s all water under the bridge now. The Grizzlies took the Blazers to overtime in the first game here in Orlando, losing 140-135 after blowing a double digit lead. They were only a three-point underdog for that game. Granted, they still had Jaren Jackson at that point, but my numbers still say this matchup is close to a ‘pick ‘em.’ Portland is overvalued in this spot. 10* Memphis |
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08-13-20 | Bucks +2.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 106-119 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (4:05 ET): It’s all come down to this for the Grizzlies, who need a win to clinch a spot in Saturday’s play-in series. They still have a shot to move back up into 8th (meaning they’d need to win just once in the play-in series instead of twice), the spot they’d occupied going all the way back to January - that is until they lost Sunday to Boston. The Grizz are a poor 1-6 SU since the restart, have lost Jaren Jackson to injury and generally played very poorly in Orlando. Unfortunately (for them), I do not expect a win in this “must-win” game Friday. Now the Grizzlies have been given a bit of a “gift” in that Giannis Antetokounmpo has been suspended for head-butting Washington’s Mo Wagner. The Bucks still won that game, mind you, 126-113 as nine-point chalk. Giannis was likely to sit this game out anyway (rest) but note that if he did play, I’d have the Bucks as 12-point favorites! He’s an MVP candidate, but I’m not sure any one player is worth more than 12 pts to the spread. Of course, the Bucks could rest other players. But even so they scored 126 pts vs. Washington on Tuesday despite several absences. We really should not be that surprised about Memphis struggling here in the bubble. They’ve only been favored by one time. Full disclosure - we’re rooting for Phoenix to make the playoffs as our numbers say they are pretty clearly the 8th best team in the West. The Grizzlies simply have no momentum or confidence right now and probably deserve to lose this game. 8* Milwaukee |
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08-11-20 | Celtics v. Grizzlies +4.5 | Top | 122-107 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
8* Memphis (5:05 ET): After picking up a “statement” win over Toronto (122-100!) on Friday, the Celtics were able to avoid any kind of letdown in their next game. Granted, they needed OT to defeat Orlando on Sunday 122-119 and they failed to cover as 8.5-point chalk. Still, locked in as the the #3 seed in the Eastern Conference, the Celtics will take that result. However, I do see motivation being an issue the rest of the way, certainly relative to their opponents for today’s game. While Boston’s playoff position is set, Memphis’ fate continues to hang in the balance. A 1-5 start here in Orlando has the Grizzlies hanging on by a thread to the 8-seed in the Western Conference. Three teams (Portland, Phoenix, San Antonio) are within one game of them and they still need a win just to clinch a place in Saturday’s “play-in game” (which has the potential to be a 2-game series) for the final playoff spot. A win here would take all the pressure off for the regular season finale (Thursday vs. Milwaukee). I’m taking the points. Save for a 121-92 win against Oklahoma City last Friday, where I had them, the Grizzlies have been struggling to find their shot here in the bubble. They lost Jaren Jackson Jr for the rest of the season and the starters had a bad collective game vs. Toronto Sunday (lost 108-99). But I can see them breaking out in this game, which Boston figures to take pretty lightly. For the Grizzlies, finishing 8th means everything as they would only need to win one play-in game (as opposed to two). Boston is 7-12 ATS off 3+ SU wins this season. 8* Memphis |
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08-09-20 | 76ers +2.5 v. Blazers | Top | 121-124 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (6:35 ET): This line seems to be a complete overreaction to the Sixers losing Ben Simmons for the rest of the season. Simmons, who dislocated his kneecap in Wednesday’s win over the Wizards, is a very good player. But I never saw much chemistry between him and the Sixers’ other star, Joe Embiid. Sure enough, Philly won its first game w/o Simmons, defeating Orlando 108-101 Friday and covering the spread as 4.5-point chalk. Portland suffered a BRUTAL loss yesterday, falling to the Kawhi Leonard-less Clippers 122-117, a game where the Blazers were bet heavily and ended up closing as favorites. Even as a 3.5-pt dog, I felt the Blazers were being a bit overvalued. Closing as a favorite, they were definitely overvalued. The same scenario exists here as my numbers would have Philadelphia favored by 3.5 points if Simmons were playing. This looks like another overreaction towards Portland. The Blazers are one of the teams fighting to get that last playoff spot in the Western Conference. That’s what made yesterday’s result all the more tough to swallow. Remember that this is a team that’s been outscored per 100 possessions and is playing the second game of a B2B (likely without Hassan Whiteside). The Blazers are seven games below .500 for the year and are every bit as bad on the road as the Sixers. In Philly’s win over Orlando on Friday, Al Horford stepped up big with 21 pts and 9 rebounds. Don’t be surprised if that happens again. Portland is just 3-8 SU in the 2nd game of a B2B this year. 10* Philadelphia |
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08-07-20 | Thunder v. Grizzlies +5 | Top | 92-121 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
8* Memphis (4:05 ET): To say the Grizzlies hold on the 8th place position in the Western Conference is “loosening” would be an understatement. The team is 0-4 SU since the restart (also 0-4 ATS) and probably won’t be favored in any games the rest of the way (unless opponents start resting starters). The poor record here in Orlando has resulted in the Grizzlies’ lead being whittled down to one-half game over Portland. Four other teams are within three games. Remember - all that is needed to force a play-in game is for the 9th place team to finish within four games of 8th. At this rate, the Grizzlies might not even be involved in such a play-in scenario. With Toronto, Boston and Milwaukee all looming on the schedule (three top teams in the East!), tonight’s game is basically a must-win for Memphis. They face an Oklahoma City team that just whipped the Lakers 105-86 as a five-point dog. The Thunder have definitely overachieved this season as is evident by the fact they have the league’s best ATS record. They held the Lakers to a dreadful shooting night on Wednesday, but let’s not forget that after a similar impressive showing vs. Utah in the first game, OKC lost their next time out (to Denver) as a favorite. Memphis was on the wrong end of a 22-1 run against Utah Weds afternoon and that was the difference in a 124-115 final. The Grizzlies actually had a higher field goal percentage than the Jazz. Also remember that the Grizzlies first two losses in the bubble came in overtime and by two points. While 0-4 is bad, they definitely have played better than the record. They are due for a win here. Take the points. 8* Memphis |
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08-06-20 | Clippers v. Mavs +4 | Top | 126-111 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 36 m | Show |
10* Dallas (6:35 ET): Tuesday marked the 1st time since the restart that Dallas won a game. They beat Sacramento 114-110 in overtime, however they also dropped to 0-3 ATS as they were 5-point favorites at the betting window. I’ve been terribly disappointed with how the Mavs have started as this was a team I earmarked to make some noise in Orlando. For what it’s worth, both of their losses were by just two points and each time they blew a double-digit lead in the game. That’s a troubling carryover from before lockdown when they had the worst record in the league in games decided by three points or fewer. The Clippers also have a pair of 2-pt losses on their resume. The most recent, 117-115 against Phoenix, was one that we were on Tuesday. The Clips were 9.5-pt favorites in the contest, but I said there was no way they were going to match the ridiculously hot shooting from the last game (126-103 win over New Orleans) when they set a franchise-record for three-pointers made. The loss to the Suns was also costly in the sense that PG Patrick Beverley suffered a calf injury. He’s already been ruled out for this contest. This could very well end up being a 1st round playoff matchup. The Clippers are seeded 2nd right now while the Mavs are 7th. Even though it's the Clippers that are off a loss, the sense of urgency is likely to be greater on the Dallas side here. Again, the Mavs easily could be 3-0 SU since the restart and probably should be. Luka Doncic was ridiculous on Tuesday with 32 pts, 20 rebounds and 12 assists. His teammates didn’t help much though as they went a combined 21 of 66 from the field, including 7 of 35 from 3-pt range. Those numbers will improve here as will the Mavs’ record in close games. They still boast the league’s top offensive efficiency rating. 10* Dallas |
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08-05-20 | Grizzlies +4.5 v. Jazz | Top | 115-124 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
10* Memphis (2:30 ET): Underdogs had a strong effort yesterday, especially in the daytime where there were two huge upsets - Nets over Bucks and Suns over Clippers. The former was the largest upset the NBA has seen (in terms of pointspread) since 1993. I was on the latter. Were Memphis to defeat Utah Weds afternoon, it would obviously not be in the same realm of those aforementioned upsets. But still give us the Grizz plus the points in this one. Both of these teams are 0-3 ATS since the restart. The only difference is Utah did win a game straight up, their opener, 106-104 over New Orleans. But the Jazz trailed by double digits in that one. Memphis just played New Orleans, and lost, a result I was happy about since I laid points with the Pelicans. Having lost three in a row, the Grizzlies hold on 8th place in the Western Conference has gotten a lot more tenuous. They entered Tuesday just two games up on both the Spurs and Blazers. A play-in scenario is all but assured with whomever finishes ninth, but right now Memphis simply needs to worry about winning a game. After suffering a third straight loss, news got even worse for Memphis when it was announced yday that forward Jaren Jackson Jr is out for the season due to a knee injury. Jackson had averaged 25.3 points in the three games so far. However, let’s not forget Utah is playing without its second leading scorer - Bojan Bogdanovic - as well. Also concerning for the Jazz is that their last two opponents have shot better than 50% from the field. Memphis is more desperate here. 10* Memphis |
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08-04-20 | Suns +9 v. Clippers | Top | 117-115 | Win | 100 | 16 h 56 m | Show |
8* Phoenix (4:05 ET): The Suns entered the restart with the worst record among remaining Western Conference teams, but have managed to go 2-0 including a come from behind win over Dallas on Sunday. Before that, they had no trouble dispatching Washington 125-112. I like them plus the points here as this line is greatly inflated due to the Clippers’ performance in their last game. Were it not for the Nets-Bucks game earlier today, this would be the highest line for any NBA game since the restart. In this case, it is unwarranted. The Clippers set a new franchise record with 26 made threes in a 126-103 blowout of New Orleans Sunday. That broke the old mark of 24, set against Miami earlier this season. They were 16 of 24 from behind the arc in the 1st half Sunday, taking a 77-45 lead into the break. Needless to say, the Clips aren’t going to be shooting that well anytime soon. They’re actually shooting less than 43% overall in the two games so far. Let’s also not forget the Clippers lost their first game. Yes, by only two points, and it was to the Lakers. But it was a loss nevertheless. Even with six more games to play, it’s extremely likely that the Clips are going to finish 2nd in the West. There’s a far greater sense of urgency for the Suns, who not only need to finish within 4th games of 8th place, but also need to leapfrog several teams. The Suns actually sport a better net efficiency rating than several of the teams they are competing against. Take the points. 8* Phoenix |
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08-03-20 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans -4 | Top | 99-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (6:30 ET): The Grizzlies meet the Pelicans Monday in a KEY matchup. Both teams are 0-2 since the restart and fighting for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Memphis played yesterday, losing by two to the Spurs, which puts them at a distinct disadvantage for tonight’s matchup. They will be the first team since the restart to play on B2B days (Spurs also play later tonight). The Pelicans have been one of the bigger disappointments thus far. They were flat out embarrassed Saturday night by the Clippers in a 126-103 loss. They trailed at one point by as many as 42 points. Zion Williamson’s playing time been restricted, which could be the case again tonight, as the #1 overall DC has played a total of just 29 minutes. Trailing the Grizzlies by 3.5 games in the standings and needing to jump two teams (Spurs, Blazers), the importance of tonight’s game seems not lost on the Pelicans players. "This is basically a must-win game for us," said Lonzo Ball. It’s worth mentioning that in their first game, NO led Utah by as many as 16 pts before falling apart down the stretch. Memphis only lost by 2 pts yday, but was down by 11 in the second half. Not only is this a 2nd night of a B2B for the Grizzlies, they also played an OT game on Friday. New Orleans was 2-0 SU/ATS vs. Memphis in the regular season, averaging 132.5 PPG. Memphis has the 3rd lowest offensive efficiency rating of the 22 teams invited to Orlando. 8* New Orleans |
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08-02-20 | Kings +2.5 v. Magic | Top | 116-132 | Loss | -104 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
10* Sacramento (6:05 ET): Orlando has to like its chances of finishing 7th in the East now. After a convincing 128-118 win on Friday, the Magic leapfrogged a severely depleted Nets squad in the standings and now hold a commanding 6.5 game lead over ninth place Washington. The big story for the Magic in their 1st game of the restart was the offense as they scored 111 pts through three quarters, which is more than the team averaged per game prior to lockdown. The Magic led the game by as many as 29 points. Out West, Sacramento is in a much more precarious position when it comes to making the playoffs. They started as one of four teams within 3.5 games of 8th place Memphis. But they lost to one of the four, San Antonio, 129-120 on Friday. Even though they scored 120 points, the Kings did not shoot well from three-point range, making only 12 of 38 attempts. The Kings can ill-afford another loss Sunday or they’ll risk losing even more ground to the Memphis-San Antonio winner. At least New Orleans lost again yday. My guess is that Orlando might be feeling a little too good about itself coming into this one. They won’t have the same sense of urgency that Sacramento will. I can’t see the Magic shooting as well as they did vs. Brooklyn, who - again - is playing with a real “skeleton” crew right now. The Kings outscored the Spurs over the final three quarters Friday and unlike Orlando should shoot better here. Take the points. 10* Sacramento |
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08-01-20 | 76ers v. Pacers +5.5 | Top | 121-127 | Win | 100 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
8* Indiana (7:05 ET): The Sixers seem to be getting a lot of love from bettors prior to the restart, but have people forgotten just how subpar this team was away from home? Their 10-24 SU road record was easily the worst among the 22 teams invited to Orlando. Therefore, I expect them to struggle more than expected. When the NBA hit the pause button on the season, the Sixers and Pacers were tied with identical 39-26 SU records. The reason that the Sixers are favored by several points is due to the uncertain status of Victor Oladipo. Even if he chooses to not play, I expect Indiana to compete on Saturday. Take the points. Originally, Oladipo had said he was NOT going to play in Orlando. But there was a change of heart and he suited up from the team’s scrimmages. My guess is that if he was willing to scrimmage, he’s likely to play. With Oladipo in the lineup, there’s no reason to believe the Pacers can’t beat the Sixers straight up and thus taking points is a “no brainer.” But even if he doesn’t play, Philly has proven itself untrustworthy on the road. As an away favorite, the Sixers are just 4-10-1 ATS this season. Their .641 difference between home and road percentages was set to be the largest of any team since the league went to an 82-game schedule. I view this as an excellent shot at fading the public, who is too high on a Philadelphia team that is - at best - 4th in the Eastern Conference pecking order. If Oladipo plays, it’s a bonus. 8* Indiana |
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07-31-20 | Rockets v. Mavs +1 | Top | 153-149 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 59 m | Show |
10* Dallas (9:05 ET): The Mavs were better than their record prior to the season being put on pause. They were 7th in conference, with a 40-27 record, but also had the West’s 3rd best per game point differential (+6.1) by a wide margin. Something else to like about them is the fact they boasted a 21-12 SU road record. That was better than all but three teams. Bottom line: if you’re looking for a so-called “dark horse” team to make a deep run into the playoffs this summer, Dallas may be your team. Houston was 6th in the Conference at the time of the shutdown, just three games up on the Mavs in the loss column. As alluded to above, the Rockets +3.7 per game point differential can’t match that of the Mavs. They also weren’t as accomplished on the road, which is a big deal now that every game is being played in Orlando. The Rockets will also be closely monitoring the health of Russell Westbrook, who tested positive for COVID-19 earlier in the summer. (Westbrook is currently listed as probable as of Monday night). I love the Mavs’ offensive efficiency numbers. Who wouldn’t? They were tops in the league in that department and moving forward it will be interesting to see if they can maintain said efficiency. I like the Mavs and expect them to come out and make a statement in their first game. 10* Dallas |
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03-11-20 | Nebraska +15 v. Indiana | Top | 64-89 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
8* Nebraska (8:30 ET): Look, there’s no sugarcoating how badly Nebraska has been beaten up by the rest of the Big 10 this year. The Cornhuskers not only enter the Tournament as the lowest seed, but also short-handed due to the suspensions of Burke and Mack. With their last win coming all the way back on January 7th, they clearly are not long for this event. It’s a 16-game losing streak they're on right now. But Indiana happens to be the classic “overvalued” bubble team tonight. If you believe in Joe Lunardi, the Hoosiers are currently one of the “last four in” the field of 68. They would be the 10th team representing the Big 10 in the NCAA Tournament. Because of the “must-win” nature that they face right now, bettors have jumped on IU here and driven the line up to a far higher place than it should be. I don’t see the line getting any bigger, so jump in and play now. Indiana has beaten Nebraska twice this year, but both wins were by single digits. The Hoosiers have a problem outside of Bloomington in that they only average 60.8 PPG. Incredibly, they did not win a single “true” road game during the regular season (0-12). Ask yourself - do you really want to lay double digits with a team like that? The Hoosiers have dropped three of their last four games and were held under 60 pts in two of the losses. 8* Nebraska |
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03-11-20 | Washington v. Arizona -5 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
10* Arizona (5:30 ET): Is it really true that Washington was once ranked in the Top 25 this season? I swear that it is! The Huskies even opened their season by beating Baylor. They got as high as #21 in the polls before the “bottom dropped out” and that “bottom” just so happened to be “conference play.” Going into last week, UW was just 3-13 SU vs. the rest of the Pac 12 and two of those victories came back in January. Two wins last week are not enough to convince me that this team is ready to make a move in the conference tournament. Arizona can be prone to some truly awful shooting nights. But I believe this team is MUCH better than its 5th place regular season finish in the Pac 12 would seem to indicate. There’s a case to be made that on any given night the Wildcats are as good as any team in the league. Even though they underachieved and (like Washington) are no longer ranked, I still consider Arizona as a Top 20 team and a real “darkhorse” in the NCAA Tournament. This is a revenge spot for the Wildcats, who dropped the regular season finale (at home) to Washington by a score of 68-62. They went into that game as 10-pt chalk. It was one of their “bad shooting nights” as they finished just 35.1% from the field despite shooting a reasonable percentage from 3-point range. Still a top 15 team in defensive efficiency, I’ll call for the Wildcats to shoot the ball MUCH better from inside the arc here. I can’t see Washington pulling a third straight upset after going 1-10 SU its previous 11 games. 10* Arizona |
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03-10-20 | Canisius v. Iona -3.5 | Top | 60-70 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
10* Iona (7:00 ET): I thought Iona underachieved this season, but now they have a chance to atone for that in what looks to be a wide-open MAAC Tournament in Atlantic City. The Gaels’ regular season ended with three consecutive losses, but all were either by three points or less or in overtime. That’s almost par for the course for a team that was favored in the majority of its games this season only to end up with a losing SU record (11-16). But the irony of the three-game losing streak is it placed them in the bottom half of the tourney bracket (seeded 7th) and away from top seed Siena. In the first round, they face a Canisius team they swept in the regular season! Canisius finished second to last in the MAAC with a 7-13 SU conference record. They are just 12-19 SU overall. While the Golden Griffins were generally pretty good as underdogs (14-5 ATS), they failed to cover at Iona (+2.5) and were then blown out in the rematch 86-65 as a 1.5-pt home favorite. They are 0-4 SU/ATS vs. Iona the L2 seasons. So while Iona obviously would have loved to avoid playing in the first round of this tournament, Canisius is definitely not a bad matchup. Canisius did end the regular season w/ B2B wins, but they came against arguably the two weakest teams in the MAAC (Niagara, Marist) and one of those wins was by a single point. The Golden Griffins hadn’t won B2B games since mid-January prior to the current streak. They came into March having lost 11 of 13 games and BOTH wins were by 1 point! I have no unearthly idea how they were able to beat Niagara in the regular season finale as they shot below 40% overall (including 5 of 21 on 3-pt attempts) and made only 8 FT’s. Iona’s luck changes here! 10* Iona |
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03-10-20 | Illinois-Chicago v. Northern Kentucky -4 | Top | 62-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
8* Northern Kentucky (7:00 ET): Northern Kentucky came into yesterday knowing that whomever the opponent was, the Horizon League Championship Game would be an opportunity for revenge. The Norse have lost only two games since the start of February. One was a two-point loss to regular season champ Wright State. The other was a shocking 30-point loss to UIC. Surprisingly, they find themselves with the opportunity to avenge the more shocking defeat as UIC upset top seed Wright State in yesterday’s semifinal round. Of course, NKU also had to handle its own business in the semifinals yesterday. They did just that, beating Green Bay 80-69 as a 5.5-point favorite. The Norse weren’t necessarily dominant, but they got the job done. They went ahead for good with 9:52 left in the game and now look to make the NCAA Tournament for the third time in the last four years. They’d been regular season champs each of the past two seasons, so make no mistake about it - this has been the dominant program in the Horizon League. When the Norse lost 73-43 (at home!) to UIC back on Feb 16th, they had to endure one of the most wretched shooting nights of the entire College Basketball season. They connected on only 22% of their total field goal attempts and were 4 of 32 from three-point range. Meanwhile, UIC shot 50% overall and was 11 of 20 from behind the arc. Needless to say, that kind of shooting discrepancy isn’t happening again here. Northern Kentucky beat UIC by 16 in the season’s first meeting and should roll in similar fashion tonight. 8* Northern Kentucky |
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03-09-20 | Elon v. Northeastern -8.5 | Top | 60-68 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
8* Northeastern (8:30 ET): The second of the two Colonial semifinals is NOT the matchup anyone expected as the 6-seed Northeastern faces the 7-seed Elon. Elon ensured that William & Mary would not make their first ever NCAA Tourney, beating the 2-seed 68-63 as a 7-pt dog yday. In the nightcap, Northeastern upended 3-seed Towson, but what was most interesting about that quarter final battle is that the lower seeded team (N’eastern) was the betting favorite (-3.5). They won 72-62. Elon is actually playing its third game in as many days here, which puts them at a pretty distinct disadvantage. Before last night’s upset over William & Mary, the Phoenix had to come from behind to defeat James Madison 63-61 in the 1st round of the tourney on Saturday. JMU finished in last place in the CAA this year, so that less than impressive win made Elon’s upset yday all the more surprising. Prior to Sunday, no team seeded 5th or lower had pulled an upset in the CAA Tournament since 2011. The fact we had two teams do it is noteworthy! Again though, Northeastern’s win on Sunday should NOT be considered an upset as they went off as the betting favorite. Now it was an upset when Elon beat N’eastern on Feb 1st 74-69. They were 7-point dogs, but playing at home and they shot a ridiculous 61.4% from the floor. This is a neutral setting (Washington D.C.) and before yday, Elon had failed to cash in seven straight neutral court games. Northeastern did win the season’s first meeting 77-68 and should win by a larger margin tonight. 8* Northeastern |
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03-09-20 | Hornets +4.5 v. Hawks | Top | 138-143 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (7:35 ET): The premise of this play is pretty simple. Atlanta shouldn’t be favored by this many points against anyone. Sure, Charlotte has actually played WORSE than its 22-41 SU record when measured by point differential. But they still are better than the Hawks and have covered six straight games coming into tonight. Their last game was an outright win over Houston, 108-99 as eight-point home dogs. Four of the six games in the ATS win streak have been against teams with a .614 or better win percentage. Atlanta (19-46 SU) has the worst record in the Eastern Conference, so for Charlotte this is a drop in class compared to previous opponents. The Hawks have been as bad as ever recently, going 0-3 SU/ATS their L3 games including a 17-point loss at Memphis Saturday night where they shot just 33.7% from the floor. Leading scorer Trae Young has been battling the flu. Defensively, the Hawks are as bad as it gets. They’ve allowed 117 or more points in seven straight games and 11 of the last 12. For the season, they are 28th in defensive efficiency and dead last in points allowed. Charlotte can exploit this with Terry Rozier, who is having a career year. Atlanta’s health issues extend beyond Young battling the flu and the bottom line is this team should never be expected to win by any kind of margin. 10* Charlotte |
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03-09-20 | UL - Lafayette v. Georgia Southern -8 | Top | 81-82 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
10* Ga Southern (7:00 ET): The Sun Belt Tournament gives a tremendous amount of preferential treatment to the teams that finished at the top of the regular season standings (as more “mid-major” tourneys should). The top two teams get triple byes into the semifinals, which take place in New Orleans, and prior to that all games are at campus sites and hosted by the higher seed. Here we’ve got the #5 seed Georgia Southern hosting the #8 seed Louisiana (who had to beat Arkansas State Saturday just to get here). Louisiana benefited from the home court advantage rule against ASU on Saturday, winning 73-66 as a 3.5-pt favorite. While five Ragin Cajuns finished in double figures, they only led by one in the final minute. Neither team shot well, though Louisiana did a much better job at converting its free throw opportunities. Important to keep in mind that the Cajuns are a below .500 team (14-18 SU) that ranks outside the top 200 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They are only 3-11 SU on the road while being outscored by 11.7 PPG. Take away the games where they were a home favorite and Louisiana’s record falls to 8-18 SU and 9-14-1 ATS. Ga Southern comes into the Sun Belt Tourney off a 1-pt loss, which should have them plenty motivated here. The loss was at home last Tuesday, to Arkansas State, and saw them blow a 10-point lead in the final minutes. The good news is that the Eagles are 9-3 off a loss this year and 9-5-1 ATS when playing on 3+ days rest. They were 12-pt favorites when they hosted Louisiana earlier this year (won by 20), so this is a great value we’re getting. They also beat the Ragin Cajuns by 7 in Lafayette. 10* Ga Southern |
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03-08-20 | Pistons +5.5 v. Knicks | Top | 84-96 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
10* Detroit (7:35 ET): The Pistons lost again on Saturday, but after falling behind by as many as 22 points, they made it close and covered for me as 8.5 point underdogs against Utah. The final score was 111-105. One important thing to point out is that while it was the 10th loss in 11 games for the Pistons, seven of those have been by double digits and they’re 4-0 ATS the L4 games. Tonight finds them getting points against one of the worst teams in the league and it’s a revenge game as well. The Knicks have had a wild week, one that saw major changes in the front office and massive revolt by its core fanbase. After Leon Rose officially became team president, the Knicks won two straight games, one of them coming against Houston as a 10-point dog. But they’ve subsequently lost B2B games (both here at home) and are now just 2-8 SU the L10 games (not much different than the Pistons). Other than the fact Detroit is playing in the second game of a back to back and on the road, I don’t really understand why NY is the favorite here. Even after factoring in the home court advantage, my numbers say the Knicks should NOT be favored in this matchup. They have a -7.5 net efficiency rating while the Pistons are -3.8. Even if you want to give the Knicks a little “extra boost” for being rested, I still don’t see how you get to this number. The Knicks aren’t favored all that often and the last seven times it’s happened, the number has always been three points or less. 10* Detroit |
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03-07-20 | Cal Poly v. UC-Santa Barbara -13.5 | Top | 67-69 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 50 m | Show |
10* UC Santa Barbara (10:00 ET): The second place team in the Big West concludes its regular season Saturday night and couldn’t have asked for a better opponent as it’s the last place team in the conference Cal Poly. When these teams met earlier in the year, UCSB won by 18 on the road as they held the Mustangs to 28.3% shooting. Compounding problems for the underdog tonight is they’ve lost six in a row and given up at least 77 points in five of those games. This should be a very easy win for UCSB. This game has some major seeding implications for UCSB. The Gauchos could clinch the #2 seed in the Big West Tournament with a win, but could fall precipitously down the standings with a loss. The team they are tied for second with is Cal Northridge and they swept the regular season series from the Gauchos. But again, UCSB couldn’t have asked for a better opponent in this spot. It’s tough to ignore the kind of defense UCSB is playing right now. They just held Cal State Fullerton to 53 points Thursday as they held on for a two-point win. The Gauchos are allowing just 64.1 PPG this year at home where they’ve gone 12-3 SU. Incredibly, Cal Poly is 0-16 SU away from home this year and lost those games by an average of 13.2 PPG. They lost Thursday 80-73 at Long Beach State and are just 5-22 ATS the L3 seasons following a game in which they allowed 80+ points. 10* UC Santa Barbara |
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03-07-20 | Jazz v. Pistons +8 | Top | 111-105 | Win | 100 | 26 h 56 m | Show |
10* Detroit (7:05 ET): The Pistons have not played well over the last month or so. They’ve lost 9 of 10 w/ the lone victory coming by two points (at Phoenix) eight days ago. But they have covered three in a row and tonight are catching the Jazz in the second night of a back to back. This being a home game is another obvious edge for the Pistons, who (predictably) are far more competitive here in the Motor City. Detroit has basically been in this same price range for each of those last three games. They last played on Wednesday when they lost to the Thunder 114-107 as a nine-point home dog. They dug themselves a sizable hole in the first half but were able to erase it, which impressed me. What wasn’t impressive was the Pistons defense as they allowed OKC to shoot better than 60% from the field. That won’t happen again here. March has been a good month for the Pistons as they are 25-8 ATS the L3 seasons. Utah won in Boston last night 99-94. That’s a really impressive win and was the fourth in a row against an Eastern Conference team. But before that, they’d lost four in a row (all at home). This is their third road game in four nights and fourth in the last six nights. The situation is not on their side here. The Jazz are just 1-5-1 ATS their L7 games as favorites. 10* Detroit |
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03-07-20 | Auburn v. Tennessee -2 | Top | 85-63 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (12:00 ET): Throughout this season, I have NOT been as high on Auburn as the pollsters. The Tigers clearly benefited from being one of the last unbeatens in the country, just like the Duquesne team I successfully faded last night, but in similar fashion (to Duquesne) there has been “sputtering” down the stretch as four of the Tigers’ six losses this season have come over the L6 games. They just got beat at home Wednesday 78-75 (as a 12-pt favorite) by Texas A&M. Tennessee will be honoring its senior class today, fresh off an upset at Kentucky earlier in the week. The Volunteers won 81-73 in Lexington as an 8.5-point dog, which followed a big win last weekend (here in Knoxville) against Florida. Speaking of seniors, UT’s John Fulkerson has led the way the L2 games w/ 49 points. Some other good news for the Vols is that they are 2-0 ATS this season after scoring 80+ pts the previous game. I think it “speaks volumes” that Tennessee is favored here, even at home. The KenPom ratings list Auburn as the 39th best team in the country and my own personal power ratings are pretty much in line with that (#33). Tennessee is holding visitors to just 58.1 PPG here in Knoxville and in addition to having a chance to defeat their former HC (Bruce Pearl), the Volunteers have a shot at avenging a 73-66 loss from earlier in the year where they blew a 17-point lead. 8* Tennessee |
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03-06-20 | Thunder v. Knicks +7.5 | Top | 126-103 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
10* New York (7:35 ET): Depending on what closing line you got, the Knicks may or may not have covered the spread in their last game. They lost 112-104 to Utah Wednesday night. The spread opened +7.5 but closed +9. Regardless of your outcome there, there’s no denying NY played well in its previous two games, clear wins over Chicago and Houston, the latter coming as a 10-point underdog. They get to stay at MSG tonight where they’ll host an OKC team that’s on a 5-game ATS losing streak. After suffering a humiliating 47-point loss at Milwaukee on Saturday night, the Thunder lost again by double digits (109-94) to the Clippers on Tuesday. They finally got back into the win column Wednesday in Detroit where they won 114-107. But they did not cover the nine-point spread. OKC’s 5-game ATS losing streak has taken them down to 37-24-1 on the year, still a league-best, but it’s clear there’s a “market correction” taking place w/ this team right now. Case in point, this is just too high. While the Thunder are 21-8 ATS on the road this season, but the average spread for them in those games has been +2.5. There just haven’t been many games, save for the last one (where they failed to cover!), that they’ve been asked to lay this many points. Oddsmakers have taken notice of this team that has overperformed expectations in 2019-20. Despite being 18-11 SU on the road this year, the Thunder are only outscoring opponents by 0.2 PPG. Take the points. 10* New York |
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03-06-20 | Richmond -1 v. Duquesne | Top | 73-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
10* Richmond (7:00 ET): Other than #3 Dayton (who has completely dominated this conference), no other team from the Atlantic 10 is considered a safe bet to make the NCAA Tournament. Two teams vying for second best in the conference meet Friday and the winner could have a case for the Big Dance. Richmond is the hotter of the two, having won 8 of its last 9 games. The lone loss during that stretch was by 4 pts at St. Bonaventure. Tonight the Spiders travel to face a Duquesne team whose number they’ve really had through the years. Duquesne was actually one of the last remaining unbeaten teams in the country. They started out 10-0 SU but are just 11-8 since. I personally never took them very seriously, although they have played Dayton tough on two different occasions. The Dukes also just beat VCU three days ago, 80-77, but needed OT to do so in what was their third straight win by 4 points or less. Two of those have been overtime games. The Dukes have been among the most fortunate teams in the entire country this season w/ NINE wins coming by six points or less. As alluded to above, Richmond has owned this particular A-10 rivalry. They are 22-2 SU the L24 times facing Duquesne while also going 18-6 ATS. The teams have not previously met this season. But Richmond has clearly been the more impressive team in conf play, going 13-4 SU w/ a +9.3 PPG scoring differential while Duquesne is 11-6 and only +1.5 PPG. The Spiders beat Davidson 80-63 earlier in the week and are 7-1 ATS this season after a game where they scored 80+ pts. 10* Richmond |
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03-05-20 | California v. Oregon -15 | Top | 56-90 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
8* Oregon (11:00 ET): Since picking up a huge overtime win at Arizona two Saturdays ago, the Ducks have played a “light schedule.” They’ve played only one time and it was a 69-54 win at Oregon State last Thursday. They’ll conclude the regular season w/ a pair of home games they definitely “should” win - this one and vs. Stanford on Saturday. Plenty is still on the line, not just for seeding purposes in the NCAA Tournament, but the Ducks are also competing for a Pac 12 regular season championship. They currently trail UCLA by one game in the win column. California has little to play for this week, though they’ve shown some grit recently by pulling three outright upsets in their last four games. Two were last week as they beat Colorado 76-62 (as an 8.5-pt dog) and Utah 86-79 (as a 1.5-pt dog). But both wins came in Berkeley. While they did win at Washington State the previous week, that’s the Bears’ ONLY “true” road win of the entire season (1-8 SU) and Wazzu is hardly on par with Oregon. Two days after they went to Wazzu and won, Cal lost by 35 at Washington. Lack of offense has been a real issue for the Bears when they leave campus as they are averaging a paltry 54.8 PPG away from home. That’s a real problem for tonight as not only has Oregon won 20 straight games in Eugene, but they are averaging more than 80 PPG here this season. This one turns into a rout in a hurry. 8* Oregon |
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03-05-20 | Clippers v. Rockets +1 | Top | 120-105 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
10* Houston (8:05 ET): The Rockets certainly weren’t expecting their 6-game win streak to end Monday when they visited New York. But it did as they fell 125-123 as a 10-point favorite. That’s a game they should have won. But now they turn their attention to the Clippers and ending what is the league’s current longest win streak at 5 games. I like their chances of doing so. Houston has beaten LA two of the three head to head meetings this year and led by five in the final minute of the one loss, which came at Staples Center on 11.22. Because they are at home, Houston should be the favorite here in our eyes. Yes, they did lose to the Knicks, but the Rockets are every bit as hot right now as the Clippers. During its six-game win streak, Houston beat Boston twice. They are not only 16-9 SU vs. .500+ teams this season, they are also 16-9 ATS in those games. I like what the Rockets are doing with their “small-ball lineup” right now and while they are often (rightfully) maligned for their defensive play, the Clippers have shown they can have bad defensive games as well. They just gave up 130 pts to the 76ers Sunday, the third time in less than a month they’ve allowed that many in a game. Houston is #2 in the league in both scoring (118.9 PPG) and offensive efficiency. They can certainly make the Clippers pay for a bad defensive night. 10* Houston |
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03-04-20 | Jazz v. Knicks +7.5 | Top | 112-104 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 34 m | Show |
10* New York (7:35 ET): After a four-game SU/ATS losing streak, the Jazz have rebounded to win two straight, beating both Washington and Cleveland by double digits. Those are the two worst defensive teams in the league and sure enough Utah was able to score 129 and 126 pts against them. Another weak opponent is up next on the docket and that’s the “Spike Lee-less” Knicks (ha!). But the Knicks have surprisingly performed well of late, also scoring 125 pts in B2B wins, the latest coming as a 10-point dog here at home vs. Houston. New York had lost six straight before its two wins in a row, so their recent form isn’t all that different from the Jazz. Now, over the course of the season, the Knicks have obviously performed a whole lot worse. But a change up in the front office (new team president) certainly seemed to invigorate NY as they led by as many as 21 against the Rockets. It was a similar deal after the coaching change that took place earlier in the season. For the record, the Knicks have covered six of their last eight games against teams that have winning records. Utah is 5th in the West w/ a 38-22 SU record. But they certainly have issues defensively as they’ve given up 113+ pts in six straight games. That obviously makes it pretty difficult to cover consistently, which is why they are just 2-5 ATS the L7 games vs. sub-.500 teams. This spread is simply too high for a Jazz team that has only been able to cover once in its last six tries as a favorite (four outright losses). 10* New York |
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03-04-20 | Xavier v. Providence -5 | Top | 74-80 | Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show |
10* Providence (6:30 ET): Providence has made an impressive run the last two weeks by going 4-0 SU and ATS. Three of those victories have been upsets as they’ve beaten Seton Hall, Georgetown (on the road) and Villanova (also on the road). This run has the Friars somewhat “solidly” in the field of 68 (NCAA Tournament) later this month as the current projections have them around a 9-seed. But they can’t afford any kind of letdown here in the final week of the regular season. A strong finish would cement their status. As a whole, the Big East is projected to do well on Selection Sunday. There could be as many as seven teams from the conference making the Big Dance. Besides Providence, Xavier is another team fighting to make the cut line. The Musketeers only played once last week and they earned a 3-pt win @ Georgetown. While they failed to cover (were -3.5!), they are still 6-2 SU and ATS the L8 games. Note, however, they needed a 3-pointer w/ 4.5 seconds remaining to beat G’town. Xavier easily could have lost that game. This is a rematch from a game played almost a month ago where Xavier won 64-58 as a 4-point choice. In that game, neither side shot well from 3-pt range. Providence had the lead at halftime, but could not hold. At home, the Friars seem to have the advantage though as they outscore opponents by 13.6 PPG here as opposed to a -3.0 PPG differential on the road. That’s a pretty dramatic swing there. The Friars area also 4-1 ATS when seeking revenge for a road loss this season. 10* Providence |
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03-03-20 | Wolves +11.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 139-134 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): An absolutely miserable stretch for the T’wolves continued Sunday w/ a 20-pt home loss to Dallas. But remember that the Mavericks are a really good team, one that is much better than its won-loss record and is a top five team in the league by at least two key metrics (point differential, net efficiency rating). Tonight, Minnesota is on the road, but facing a team I feel is overvalued. It’s three straight ATS losses for New Orleans coming into tonight as the marketplace continues to struggle to put an accurate price on them with Zion Williamson in the lineup. While two of those Pelicans’ ATS losses came against the Lakers, including Sunday, the other was them failing to cover a double digit spread against Cleveland. That’s arguably the worst team in the league. While Minnesota has had a rough go and is w/o Karl Anthony-Towns, they are better than Cleveland. They’ve covered two of the last three times they’ve been a DD dog, even winning one of those outright (at Miami). Winning at Miami isn’t easy. That was the just the 4th time the Heat lost at home all season. Minnesota missed 11 of its first 12 shots against Dallas and never recovered. They ended up shooting just 36.4% for the game. They should certainly shoot better here against a Pelicans team that gives up 116.9 PPG. New Orleans has also struggled to make outside shots recently as their best three-point shooter (J.J. Redick) is out for at least another seven games. The Pelicans still have a negative point differential on the year. Laying double digits is not a role well suited for them. 10* Minnesota |
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03-02-20 | Texas Tech v. Baylor -7.5 | Top | 68-71 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
10* Baylor (9:00 ET): The last time #2 Baylor was off a SU loss, we grabbed them and cashed a winning ticket. It was last Tuesday when they crushed Kansas State 85-66 as a DD home favorite. The Bears will almost certainly have dropped in the rankings by the time tonight’s game tips off as they fell Saturday in Ft. Worth, 75-72 to TCU (were -9.5) in what was certainly their “worst” loss of the season to date. But just like last Tuesday, I expect them to bounce back in a major way here. Baylor’s only two other losses this year were to Kansas (current #1 team in the country) and out in Washington in the second game of the season. All of a sudden, after a record 23-game win streak, the Bears have now dropped 2 of 3. But as they showed against Kansas State, this team certainly remains formidable at home. They are 13-1 SU in Waco, winning by an average margin of 14.3 PPG. Getting them as a single digit favorite is a real bargain tonight. Now Texas Tech presents a far greater challenge than Kansas State did, but the Red Raiders also aren’t Kansas (the only visitor to win in Waco this season). The Red Raiders are off a bad week where they lost to both Texas and Oklahoma (favored in both games) and that will certainly drop them out of the Top 25 when the new rankings are released later today. Back in January, Baylor went to Lubbock and won 57-52 as a 3.5-pt underdog. Following two more sub-60 pt efforts LW, I can’t see TT scoring many points tonight and that’s obviously problematic. 10* Baylor |
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03-02-20 | Blazers +7 v. Magic | Top | 130-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
10* Portland (7:05 ET): Playing in the Western Conference (as opposed to the East) can certainly have its disadvantages. Just look at Portland, who is nine games under .500 (admittedly not good!), yet buried in 12th place. Orlando, who is six games below .500, would be a playoff team in the East as they are currently in 7th place. These teams were even more closely aligned record-wise, before recent form kicked in. The Blazers are just 1-6 SU and ATS their L7 games while Orlando has won 5 of 7 and covered 4 straight. Of course, Damian Lillard being out indefinitely has literally and figuratively hurt the Blazers. You can tie his groin injury to when the team began to falter. Yet, it’s not a lack of offense that’s killing the Blazers right now. They are giving up an average of 121.7 PPG in their last six losses. They gave up 129 to a lousy Atlanta team Saturday night, which may have been rock bottom for the season. Fortunately for the Blazers, Orlando comes in averaging just 105.3 PPG, which has them near the bottom of the league in that regard. The Magic’s 43.8 FG% is also at the bottom of the league. In Lillard’s absence, Hassan Whiteside has picked up the slack. Not only is Whiteside averaging 14.2 rebounds per game this year, he leads the league w/ 172 blocked shots. I look for this to be a close game. Orlando doesn’t blow many teams out. They are just 11-17-2 ATS at home and 8-16 SU vs. the Western Conference. 10* Portland |
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03-01-20 | Virginia Tech v. Louisville -12 | Top | 52-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
10* Louisville (6:00 ET): #11 Louisville has a chance to be in first place all by itself w/ a win tonight. That’s thanks to Florida State getting upset Saturday. But with the Cardinals having been swept by FSU this season, that means they’ll need to finish at least a game ahead. I look for them to take no prisoners Sunday in this matchup w/ Va Tech. L’ville is off its second straight loss to FSU, which occurred Monday in Tallahassee. They’ve had plenty of time to “stew” over that 82-67 defeat. Virginia Tech has had little to no success throughout this ACC campaign. The Hokies have dropped eight of their last nine games, the only win coming at home vs. Pitt (were three-point favorites). They just lost Wednesday in Blacksburg, to Virginia, 56-53 as a three-point favorite. They’ve now failed to cover 10 of their last 11 games. Louisville has won and covered three straight in this ACC rivalry including 72-64 in Blacksburg in their only meeting last season. With almost a week to prepare and coming off a loss, I expect a really strong effort here. They’ve had two extra days to prepare compared to Va Tech. It’s also “Senior Day” (final home game). Yes, they must overcome the injury to Malik Williams, but the Cardinals are 16-1 SU at home this season, winning by almost 17 PPG. 10* Louisville |
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03-01-20 | Mavs v. Wolves +7 | Top | 111-91 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (3:30 ET): I’ve got a ton of respect for Dallas and actually think they’re much better than their current WL record, which has them 7th in the Western Conference. In terms of both point differential and net efficiency rating, they are 5th in the entire league! However, with a questionable Luka Doncic, I am not about to lay points on the road w/ this team. It’s not just Doncic’s questionable status either. The Mavs can be wildly inconsistent (as they showed in a recent loss at Atlanta). Dallas also lost in Miami Friday, which isn’t that big of a deal considering how good the Heat are at home. But the Mavs did give up 126 points as lack of defense continues to be an issue for them. Tonight certainly has the potential to be another game where they give up plenty of points. Minnesota has scored at least 123 in each of its last three games. If they can get there again, you have to like them at home in this price range. Of course, the T’wolves are giving up plenty of points themselves. But they did just win at Miami, something Dallas failed to do. Now the T’wolves also just lost in Dallas and gave up 139 pts in doing so. I just think at home we’re going to get a better effort from them. As we saw last night w/ our winning call on Golden State, any team can win on a given night in this league. 10* Minnesota |
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02-29-20 | Utah State v. New Mexico +8.5 | Top | 64-66 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
10* New Mexico (10:00 ET): Utah State is trying to make sure that TWO Mountain West teams get in the NCAA Tournament (San Diego State the other) as they have won six in a row, the last three all coming by double digits. But while the last 10 days have seen the Aggies prevail by scores of 78-58 (over Wyoming) and 94-56 (San Jose State), both of those games were at home. They also were against the two weakest teams in the conference. Tonight they visit Albuquerque where the home team has lost only three times. When it hosted San Diego State back on January 29th, New Mexico was undefeated at home (13-0). They were blown out in that game, 85-57, and have subsequently nosedived with six more losses in the last seven games. They are now 14-3 SU at home and the reason for the downturn has to do with injuries and players leaving the program altogether. Still, you should expect the remaining Lobos to “show up” for this final game of the regular season. The Lobos still average 83.2 PPG at home. The game vs. San Diego State marked the only time they were getting more than a single point here in “The Pit.” I think Utah State is due for an “off-night” here as they get ready for the Mt West Tournament, an event where they must at least make the final. They’re just 3-6 ATS on the road. 10* New Mexico |
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02-29-20 | Warriors +8.5 v. Suns | Top | 115-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
10* Golden State (9:05 ET): The nightmare season for Golden State will finally get some positive news tomorrow when former MVP Steph Curry makes his return to the lineup. But first is a game tonight at Phoenix, who just lost as a nine-point favorite last night. Curry’s return couldn’t come at a more needed time for the Warriors, who have lost eight in a row and routinely been blown out in doing so. But one of their two ATS wins in those L8 games came on this floor 17 days ago. Tonight’s spread is strangely larger. I realize the Warriors have been very bad since picking up the ATS win at Phoenix with the last four losses all coming by 14 points or more. But the Suns are not very familiar with this kind of price range and last night showed that as they lost outright (here at home) to a struggling Pistons squad. The Suns are now just 3-10 ATS their L13 games overall and they’ve dropped B2B games SU here at home. Going back to MLK Day, Phoenix has been a favorite just five times and lost four of those games outright! The Suns haven’t been good on the second night of a back to back either, going just 4-6 SU/ATS in that situation this season. Furthermore, they are just 11-20 SU and 11-19-1 ATS in home games. In addition to covering at Phoenix earlier this month, the Warriors also beat the Suns right after X-Mas. 10* Golden State |
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02-28-20 | Davidson +10.5 v. Dayton | Top | 67-82 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
10* Davidson (7:00 ET): Dayton has emerged as a national force this season by winning 26 of its 28 games. The Flyers currently rank #4 in the country and unlike a San Diego State team that just lost its first game this season, I’ve got this team more in line with the pollsters. Right now, the only other team in the country w/o a conference loss is New Mexico State and they play in the rather hideous Big West. I’m not sure what it says about the rest of the A-10 that no one has been able to beat the Flyers yet. What’s interesting here is that Dayton was NOT even the preseason pick to win the conference. They were pegged for third behind VCU and Davidson. The latter is who comes calling Friday and lately the Wildcats have FINALLY begun to flash the form that made them a choice to finish ahead of Dayton this year. They have won 8 of 11 including a very impressive 74-49 beatdown of LaSalle earlier this week. Looking at the only three games Davidson has lost over the last month or so, one was a 4OT game and another was decided by a single point. You’d have to go all the way back to early December to find a game that the Wildcats lost by more points than what the oddsmakers are calling for tonight. While it’s been a disappointing season for them, this will be treated as the “Game of the Year.” Dayton’s last four wins have all been by single digits. 10* Davidson |
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02-27-20 | Lakers v. Warriors +13 | Top | 116-86 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
10* Golden State (10:35 ET): The Warriors get a break here as LeBron James is sitting this one out for the Lakers due to a sore groin. Certainly, the Dubs will take any break they can get at this point as they enter Thursday w/ the worst record in the league at 12-46 SU. It has been a precipitous fall for the team that has represented the Western Conference in each of the L5 NBA Finals. That’s thanks to injuries, but hopefully now they can take advantage of an opponent missing its best player. We shouldn’t need to go through what James means to the Lakers. With the decline of Golden State, the Lakers have taken their spot atop the Western Conference w/ James playing in 54 out of a possible 56 games. LeBron matched a season-high w/ 40 points in Tuesday’s win over New Orleans. Anthony Davis is still bothered by a sore left elbow. The bottom line here is that I’m banking on the Lakers not taking this game very seriously. Despite what I think the mindset will be for LA tonight, we’re still able to grab a boatload of points. The Warriors are at home where they only lost by five to the Lakers earlier this month and that was with LeBron on the court. Home or away, Golden State has not done well recently (losing seven straight), but this is still a prideful bunch that knows its playing on national TV and has a chance to “steal one” against a team taking the floor without arguably the best player in the league. The Warriors have covered both times this year when they’ve gotten double digits at home. 10* Golden State |
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02-27-20 | Indiana v. Purdue -6 | Top | 49-57 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
10* Purdue (7:00 ET): Despite an overall record of .500 (14-14 SU), Purdue’s NCAA Tournament hopes aren’t done yet. But it’s getting to be “do or die” time for the Boilermakers, who not only need a strong finish to the regular season, but a strong showing in the Big 10 Tournament as well. They’ve lost four in a row, two of those coming as home favorites. But they’ll have many more chances to show that they’re better than several of the Big 10’s presumed NCAA Tourney teams, including here as they face the last time they beat. It was back on Feb 8th that Purdue went to Indiana and won 74-62 as a three-point dog. That was the night Bobby Knight made his long-awaited return to Bloomington. At the time, it seemed like the Boilermakers were finally ready to “turn the corner” for good. They were coming off an impressive shellacking of Iowa (104-68!) here in West Lafayette just three days prior. But things haven’t gone their way since, including an ugly 71-63 home loss to Michigan on Sunday where they shot just 28% in the 1H. IU has won three of its last four since Purdue handed them what was (at the time) a 4th straight loss. But I still consider Purdue the better team here, especially at home. This is the first time the Boilermakers have lost B2B home games in six years. Despite the .500 SU record, I still consider them to be just on the outskirts of the top 25 teams in the country. It’s been a massively disappointing season so far for Matt Painter’s team, but they’ve got a chance to rewrite the script against an Indiana team that is just 8-23 SU its L31 road games including 2-6 (SU and ATS) this season. 10* Purdue |
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02-26-20 | Missouri -2.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 61-52 | Win | 100 | 26 h 30 m | Show |
10* Missouri (9:00 ET): I happen to think the SEC isn’t very good this year. Other than Kentucky, there’s no team I feel is a strong bet to get out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament (and the Wildcats are far from a lock to do so themselves). Neither of the two teams in question here are going to even make the NCAA Tournament, but it’s a matchup where there’s definitely value as the last place team in the conference is getting far too much respect here. Vanderbilt is last in the SEC with a 1-13 SU conference record. That one win was a real shocker as they upset LSU (who was unbeaten in conference play at the time), here in Nashville. However, other than that, this season has been a disaster for the Commodores. They are being outscored by 11.4 PPG in SEC play and have lost their last five games by a pretty similar margin. I see no reason to expect them to win tonight. Missouri isn’t exactly a world-beater but this spread basically dictates that all we need from them tonight is a SU win. The Tigers had covered four in a row before losing to Arkansas last Saturday. Mizzou has had a lot more success in the SEC this year than has Vandy, beating the likes of Arkansas (first time around), Auburn and Florida, all of whom could be NCAA Tournament teams. They also nearly upset LSU on the road. Lay the points here. 10* Missouri |
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02-26-20 | Nets v. Wizards +1.5 | Top | 106-110 | Win | 100 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
10* Washington (7:05 ET): Over the previous few days, I’ve experienced success by both taking and fading Brooklyn. Of course they just lost Kyrie Irving for the year, so fading the Nets seems logical right now. But not last Saturday when I said they were the right side in Charlotte and sure enough came away with a 29-point victory. But facing a much better Orlando team Monday, they lost 115-113 as a 3.5-point favorite. So what’s a bettor to do Wednesday when the Nets host Washington? The Wizards fall somewhere in between the Magic and Hornets in my power rankings, so that makes the decision on how to answer the question above a little murkier. Three straight losses since the All-Star Break have done the Wiz no favors. But Bradley Beal has gone for 50+ (points) in B2B games. That the Wizards have lost both is somewhat incredible as Beal is the first player in league history to go for 50+ in B2B games since Kobe Bryant did it four straight times back in ‘07. Brooklyn blew a 19-pt lead Monday, the second time in less than a week they blew a lead of that size and lost. It’s been a profitable February for them (6-2-1 ATS) but they have just two road wins and one was by a single point. They lost here in D.C. back on Feb 1, 113-107, and are now just 10-17 SU on the road for the season. The Wizards are 6-1 ATS this season when off 3+ SU losses. They have a red hot Beal while the Nets just lost Irving. Washington is 14-2 SU its L16 games vs. Brooklyn. 10* Washington |
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02-25-20 | Kings v. Warriors +5.5 | Top | 112-94 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
10* Golden State (10:35 ET): It’s been hard times for the Warriors this season as injuries to Steph Curry and Klay Thompson had them derailed from the very start. They have gone from being the best team in the league over the last five seasons to having the worst record in 2019-20, which is as precipitous a fall as I’ve seen in this league in a long time. But I’m still unsure that they should be getting this many points at home against the Kings, a team that just isn’t favored on the road very often. The Kings didn’t need any points to defeat the Clippers on Saturday. The 112-103 outright upset (were +9) was the Kings’ second win in a row and fifth in the last seven games. That said, they are still 10 games below .500 and unlikely to make the playoffs. They are just 3-3 STRAIGHT UP in the road favorite role and my guess is this could end up being the most points they have to lay in any road game all season. The Warriors have lost six in a row coming into tonight’s game, so they should be hungry for a win. No Marvin Bagley III means it will be tough for Sacramento to keep winning and I think they are prone for a letdown here after upsetting the Clippers. I just don’t think the spread should be this high. 10* Golden State |
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02-25-20 | Kansas State v. Baylor -13.5 | Top | 66-85 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
10* Baylor (8:00 ET): Pretty simple here as Baylor is looking to bounce back from its loss Saturday to Kansas. That loss snapped the Bears’ 23-game win streak and dropped them from #1 in the polls. Still though, there’s plenty to celebrate here in Waco. This remains a very likely #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and they could end up as the #1 overall seed in the field of 68. Kansas State is the team that finds itself in the unenviable position of facing Baylor tonight. This is a case of “wrong place, wrong time” for the Wildcats and to make matters worse they come in on a seven-game losing streak. The most points they’ve scored in any of those games is 67, ironically against Baylor, but the issues scoring are likely to really bite this team tonight w/ Baylor allowing just 56.8 PPG at home. Provided there’s no letdown amongst the players, Baylor should easily roll in this one. Kansas State has major issues scoring (60.5 PPG away from Manhattan) and has just one win away from home all season. The Wildcats’ current form doesn’t inspire any confidence that they can get the job done here and this one has the potential to get “ugly” in a hurry. Baylor is #2 in the country in defensive efficiency and has proven it can win games by large margins even w/o large production from its leading scorers. 10* Baylor |
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02-24-20 | Knicks +14 v. Rockets | Top | 112-123 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show |
8* New York (8:00 ET): It normally would take a lot for me to consider the Knicks as a viable play, but in this case we are getting “a lot” … a lot of points that is! There haven’t been too many games this season where NY has gotten more points than they are here. On the flip side of that, this could end up being the most points Houston has had to lay in any game this season. The Rockets do come in on a 3-game SU/ATS win streak, but two of the victories were by less of a margin than what the oddsmakers are calling for tonight. The Knicks have played just one game since the All-Star Break and it was a 106-98 home loss to Indiana. They actually finished with a higher overall FG% than the Pacers (43.2 to 40.6), but were ultimately undone by the fact Indiana made more free throws than NY even attempted! I should point out that prior to the Break, the Knicks started February on a 4-0 SU/ATS run with three of those wins coming on the road. One (at Indiana) even came as a DD dog. The Rockets are just 7-5 STRAIGHT UP when coming into a game on a win streak of at least three games. While there’s no debate as to who the better team is in this matchup, laying this many points is not something I’d really advise doing in any NBA matchup. Let’s not forget that Houston does not defend particularly well. 8* New York |
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02-24-20 | Magic +3 v. Nets | Top | 115-113 | Win | 100 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
8* Orlando (7:35 ET): One of these teams is very likely to end up as the 7th seed in the Eastern Conference Playoffs. Brooklyn currently occupies the spot and I backed them in a major way Saturday when they went to Charlotte as a three-point road favorite. They won 115-86, which was quite the statement considering Kyrie Irving is now done for the year. But remember who they were playing. Much of the basis for my play on the Nets was the Hornets are one of the worst teams in the entire league. Orlando is 24-32 SU, which puts them 2.5 games back of Brooklyn. But they are a fairly safe 3.5 games up on the 9th place team in the East. This Magic team does not seem to be as strong as last season and their first game after the All-Star Break was a major disappointment as they lost 122-106 at home to Dallas. But the Mavs are a really good team. The last time the Magic faced the Nets, which was in Orlando, they won 101-89. As will be the case the rest of the way, Brooklyn did not have Kyrie Irving suit up in that game. The Nets have enjoyed a profitable February, going 6-0-1 ATS the last seven games. But they’ve been underdogs for more than half of those contests and lost two straight up. While I did play them as a favorite Saturday, again, that was all about fading a very bad Charlotte team. Orlando is going to make the playoffs and actually leads the league in PPG allowed (105.7)! I think they’ll defend well enough to at least get the cover tonight and most likely the outright win! 8* Orlando |
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02-24-20 | Heat v. Cavs +6 | Top | 119-125 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:00 ET): For my first NBA selection after the All-Star Break, I chose to fade the Heat as a road favorite. The move worked beautifully as the Heat lost outright in Atlanta. Now there were clear signs that might happen. Miami has one of the strongest home vs. road splits in the league right now as they are 23-3 SU at home and just 13-17 SU on the road. Tonight they are again laying points against one of the league’s weakest teams and I’ll be fading here too. Cleveland has a rather eventful All-Star Break as HC John Beilein, who was never a good fit, was let go. The team responded by winning its first game under interim J.B. Bickerstaff, 113-108, in a come from behind effort at Washington. Then came a loss to the Heat. But that 124-105 setback was in Miami. I can’t say the Cavs are a great home team, but they’ve obviously got a much better shot at beating the Heat at home than on the road. This is also Bickerstaff’s 1st game at home, so expect an inspired effort. Miami has dominated Cleveland through the years, winning the last eight matchups. All three wins this year have been by double digits. But the Cavs players obviously wanted the coaching change and should play better as a result. The difference in the Heat’s play at home (+10.9 PPG) vs. the road (-2.9 PPG) cannot possibly be overstated. While it was against Atlanta, the Cavs did win the last time they played here at home. Look for this to be tighter than expected. 8* Cleveland |
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02-24-20 | West Virginia v. Texas +4.5 | Top | 57-67 | Win | 100 | 22 h 59 m | Show |
10* Texas (7:00 ET): West Virginia has a problem winning on the road. An overtime loss at TCU Saturday dropped them to just 3-7 SU and ATS in “true” road games. It was their 5th consecutive loss away from Morgantown and three of those have come as favorites. As good as the Mountaineers are at home, I just can’t trust them laying points on the road right now and will play accordingly tonight as they visit Austin. Texas is coming off a 2-0 week, including a win over TCU. While the Longhorns got the Horned Frogs here at home, they did have to travel to Kansas State for Saturday’s win and Manhattan is not an easy place to win. Even more impressive is that the 70-59 upset (UT was +5) was a lot more lopsided than the final score showed. The Longhorns led 42-23 at the half and were never really threatened. To say Texas is “thinking revenge” here would be putting it mildly. They lost by 38 up in Morgantown last month, a result I’m sure HC Shaka Smart and his players have not forgotten. As noted above, WVU is obviously a much different team on the road. They are just 1-4 SU/ATS their L5 games overall. The Longhorns allow just 60.8 PPG in Austin and have allowed less than that in three of their last four games overall. Believe it or not, WVU is just one game up on Texas in the Big 12 standings. The Longhorns are getting career-best production out of Courtney Ramey right now. 10* Texas |
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02-23-20 | Pistons v. Blazers -4.5 | Top | 104-107 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
10* Portland (9:05 ET): The Blazers have lost Damian Lillard (groin) for an indefinite period of time and he’s not the only one currently sitting on the bench due to injury. But I believe this team still has enough to defeat the sorry Pistons, who have lost five in a row as well as 10 of their last 12 games. Portland is still very much in play for that 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference and isn’t about to let a chance like this slip by. Detroit, meanwhile, is rapidly seeing its already slim playoff hopes get even slimmer. Even with only six teams in the East over .500, the Pistons are six games back of the final playoff spot. They’ve averaged only 97 PPG during the five-game losing streak and remember they don’t have Blake Griffin. A 20-point home loss to Milwaukee on Thursday was the latest setback as the team fell to 9-26 SU in games where it is an underdog. Portland is a disappointing 15-12 SU at home this year, but finds itself laying a short number here. After losing three straight games to teams they are battling for that 8-seed (including two to New Orleans), look for the Blazers to blow through the Pistons tonight as they’ve had enough of the losing. Even without Lillard, they still scored 115 points in their last game. 10* Portland |
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02-23-20 | Wichita State v. Cincinnati -4 | Top | 64-67 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
10* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): At last glance, Cincinnati is considered to be one of the last teams in the field of 68 (NCAA Tournament) that wouldn’t be in a “play-in game.” That makes today’s game vs. Wichita State critically important for the Bearcats as a loss here would place them squarely on the Tourney bubble. A win further solidifies their status as one of three teams from the American Conference likely to get in. Wichita State is one of the two (Houston being the other) that is considered “safe” as far as making the Tourney goes. After a three-game losing streak to start the month, the Shockers have now won three straight - all by double digit margins. But those three wins have all come against bottom teams in the American. Interestingly enough, two of those three losses they took earlier this month came against Houston and Cincinnati. They lost 80-79 at home to Cincy as five-point chalk. Cincinnati has only been beaten twice in its last nine games. Once was by a single point at UConn. The other was Wednesday vs. UCF, a game which went to double overtime. So, again, you can see how important this game is for them. While they’ve failed to cover four straight (overall), this is a team that’s 11-2 SU at home and covered both times they’ve been in the -3.5 to -6 range here. 10* Cincinnati |