Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-26-16 | Texas-Arlington v. Fordham +1.5 | Top | 67-63 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
8* Fordham (5:00 ET): UT Arlington is 3-3 SU so far and the results have essentially gone "according to script." Their three wins have all been against non-lined opponents - TX Southern, St. Francis-IL and Mount St. Mary's - while their three losses all came on the road, to Minnesota, Florida Gulf Coast and Arkansas. Here, they have opened as a slight favorite for another three-game trip, which begins in Fordham. The Rams lost their only road game so far, the season opener, 96-59 at East Tennessee State. But they've bounced back with five consecutive home wins, including routs of their only two lined opponents - Rider and St. Peter's. So I see some value in them only needing a SU win this afternoon. This is also a revenge spot for Fordham, who lost 77-72 (+3) at UT Arlington in the season opener last year. Despite shooting the ball better overall, including from three-point range, the Rams still lost by 5. The key was they only got to the free throw line six times. While they converted every opportunity from the charity stripe, it wasn't enough even w/ UT Arlington shooting only 57.1% there. That's because the Mavericks got to the line 21 times and their six extra makes were essentially the difference. I do not expect that discrepancy to exist today and if it does, it will be in favor of the Rams. Also, the teams both attempt about 21 FT's per game. Fordham is shooting 77% there while UT Arlington is 58.4%. The Rams have won 16 straight at home against non-conference competition, so you can see why this can be perceived as a great value. Defensively, this team seems to be much improved this year. While the class of opponent can be called into question, they've allowed an average of just 55.8 points the L4 games. Forcing turnovers has been huge as they are averaging over 11 steals per game. On both ends of the floor, Joseph Chartouny has led the way as he's averaged better than four steals per game during these L4 games while on the offensive end he's averaging 16.2 PPG on 56% shooting. Meanwhile, UT Arlington will likely be unable to continue its recent hot shooting from the L2 games (53.4 FG%), here on the road. 8* Fordham |
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11-25-16 | Hornets -1 v. Knicks | Top | 111-113 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (7:35 ET): It's pretty shocking that the Knicks have a .500 record. They have been outscored by an average of 3.2 points per game this season and have a similar efficiency rating of -3.5. There's only a handful of Eastern Conference teams doing worse than those numbers currently. However, the Knicks have been able to post B2B wins over Atlanta and Portland to start the week to square their record away at seven wins and seven losses. This is a third straight home, but unlike the first two I see no edges for the Knickerbockers. Charlotte should come in plenty motivated (off three straight losses) and is the better team to begin with. They have started the year by cashing 7 of the 10 times they've been favorites. The number here is virtually irrelevant, but I expect the Hornets to win. New York had some minor edges heading into their past two games. It was an early start time Sunday vs. Atlanta and those always seem to favor the home side. They were catching the Hawks playing the second of B2B road games as well as Charlotte had just beaten them two days earlier. Then, it was a visit from a Portland team who is actually one of the few with a worse defensive efficiency rating than the Knicks. So, a 107-103 win wasn't too surprising there and note that was a close game (could have gone either way) throughout. I would still be concerned w/ the Knicks defense (26th in efficiency) and I won't even waste my breath touching on the offensive situation as Phil Jackson is still pressing the team to run his antiquated triangle scheme. Charlotte just played San Antonio really tough on Wednesday night. That was a home game on ESPN that saw them come up five points short as five-point underdogs. Eight Hornets actually scored in double figures there (good sign!), but a season high 16 turnovers really undid them. It was their third straight loss, but that stretch includes a trip to resurgent New Orleans as well. The home loss to Memphis was not ideal, but the Grizzlies have been playing well of late also. The key is all three of those teams are better than the Knicks, who are just 4-10 SU and ATS as home underdogs of three points or less. 10* Charlotte |
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11-25-16 | Cal Poly v. Illinois-Chicago +4.5 | Top | 71-84 | Win | 100 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
10* Illinois-Chicago (4:30 ET): This is the second game for both teams and of the day in the NIU Showcase (Northern Illinois), played here in DeKalb. Obviously, one stands to reason that UIC would have the edge in whatever crowd support is present Friday afternoon. But Cal Poly did just beat the host team of this event, 68-64 as 10-pt underdogs, Wednesday night. However, for that very reason, I'm calling for a letdown here from the Mustangs, who now curiously find themselves in the role of favorite for this second game here. UIC, meanwhile, looks to atone for a 91-80 loss suffered against Elon. The Flames have scored 80+ points in every game so far, making them the proverbial "tough out" taking points. Interestingly, Cal Poly had dropped its first two "true" road games of the campaign, losing at both Pepperdine and Arizona State by a combined 31 points. Wins over non-lined foes Cat St. Dom Hills and Bethesda weren't enough to impress me, so I actually faded them Wednesday vs. Northern Illinois. That obviously turned out to be a mistake as the Mustangs shot 51.1% from the floor, including 11 of 22 from three-point range, which was probably the difference in the game. After leading for much of the first half, Cal Poly wound up falling behind by six with just over eight minutes remaining in the game and it was looking as if I might have a shot at the cover. But, the Mustangs were able to mount an impressive rally from there and instead take the game outright. Note that they are just 9-14 ATS in the favorite role the past two seasons. UIC is 2-2 SU on the young season. Besides what happened Wednesday, their only other loss came by two points out in San Francisco. Overall, the Flames have shot the ball quite well thus far. They're at 47.7% from the floor. But they've struggled from beyond the arc, connecting at only 28.2%. Assuming Cal Poly "cools off" from outside (compared to their last game) and UIC has a modicum of improvement in that department, there's your difference maker right there. I just can't see Cal Poly winning B2B games out here in the "Land of Lincoln," so an outright upset is a distinct possibility here. 10* Illinois-Chicago |
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11-24-16 | Seton Hall v. Florida -2.5 | Top | 76-81 | Win | 100 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
10* Florida (8:30 ET): It's certainly been an interesting start to the season for Florida. They've yet to play an actual home game as the O'Connell Center is still being renovated. This hasn't seemed to bother them though as they've opened the year w/ four consecutive wins at neutral sites, the most recent being a 78-61 triumph over Belmont on Monday. It was their third double digit victory of the young season so far. Tonight, a much closer game is expected against Seton Hall as part of the Advocare Invitational in Lake Buena Vista. The Pirates arrive in the Sunshine State fresh off a minor upset of an Iowa (in Iowa City!) and while I can see why a lot of people are calling for the same thing here, the value is on the Gators. Lay the short number. It's not like Florida has had to venture far this season. The first two games of the season were played in nearby Jacksonville and neither Florida Gulf Coast nor Mercer proved to be much competition. St. Bonaventure was able to hang tough in Lakeland last Thursday, but as mentioned above, Belmont was no match in Tampa earlier this week. I feel that the fact the Gators have to play their first 11 games all outside of Gainesville will benefit them greatly. While not ranked, I certainly feel Mike White's team is making a strong case and should be favored by more in its home state. A great sign for the Gators thus far is their free throw shooting is much improved from last year when they ranked 323rd (out of 346) nationally. This year, they are up to 75.2% from the charity stripe and that's proven to be a big edge for them so far (more on that in a bit). Seton Hall has shot the lights out in their first three games at 54.2% overall. But here they'll be running into a team that has limited its opponents to a 38.4% shooting thus far and only 60 points per game. Free throw shooting can decide games and this year it looks to be a problem for Seton Hall, who is only at 56.6%, barely higher than their overall field goal percentage! Florida has really benefited thus far from poor opponent FT shooting (57.8%), so could that trend continue? Speaking of trends, Seton Hall is due to regress after posting one of the better ATS records in the country last year. The Pirates could come out flat after being off for a week. 10* Florida |
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11-23-16 | Thunder +2.5 v. Kings | Top | 101-116 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma City (10:35 ET): My, how times have changed? The Thunder are crashing, to the point they are now getting points ... in Sacramento? Yikes. Last night brought a brutal loss, to the Lakers, as Nick Young stunned everyone w/ a go-ahead three-pointer w/ only five seconds remaining. The final score was 111-109, OKC's second consecutive defeat by four points or less. They are now only 8-7 SU this season, their first w/o Kevin Durant, but that hardly qualifies them to be a dog to a lowly foe like the Kings. The difference between the Thunder and Pelicans (who I'm playing against in this 3-pack) tonight is expect the former to be more motivated in their unrested situation. Take the points. Sacramento was on the winning end of a buzzer beater Sunday night, or should I say the right side of a disallowed buzzer beater? Hosting Toronto (were 3-pt underdogs), the Kings led by what ended up being the final score when the Raptors' Terrance Ross hit a three-pointer. But the officials set the clock didn't start on time and disallowed the shot in controversial fashion. Truth be told, the Kings were fortunate they got off to such a strong start (36 first quarter points) as they likely would have lost had the game gone to OT (though I can't prove it!). They also still rank dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. A major story thus far has been their decreased pace of play under HC Dave Joerger. Oklahoma City was 6-1 SU to start the season and still has Russell Westbrook, who is nearly averaging a triple double. They also rank 6th in defensive efficiency, a far cry from where the Kings are at. Joerger started a smaller lineup against Toronto in an effort to speed the pace up, but the problem w/ that here will be OKC figures to dominate them on the boards. The Thunder are currently fourth in the league in rebounding rate. Oklahoma City was an 8.5-point favorite in both visits to California's capital city last season. Obviously, the departure of Durant must be figured in, but this line is a clear overreaction to recent results by the oddsmakers. 8* Oklahoma City |
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11-23-16 | Wolves -1 v. Pelicans | Top | 96-117 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (9:35 ET): New Orleans embarrassed me (and the Hawks) last night as they went on the road and picked up a surprising 112-94 win as eight-point pups. It was their third consecutive win and cover and fifth straight up win in the last seven games following an 0-8 SU start. The return of PG Jrue Holliday has proven huge as its eases the burden of Anthony Davis, who was left to carry a sorry supporting cast early in the year. But I don't like the Pelicans chances tonight in the second game of a back to back as they face a T'wolves squad that's a whole lot better than its 4-9 SU record shows. Most of their games have been in the pick 'em range thus far, but this is an opponent they should be favored to beat - even on the road. Believe it or not, Minnesota still sports a positive YTD point differential and efficiency rating despite the losing record. That's largely owed to the fact that their four wins have all been blowouts. The four teams that they've blown out - Memphis, the Lakers, Orlando and Philadelphia - span efficiency ratings that the Pelicans would fall right in the middle of (below Grizzlies & Lakers, but above Magic & Sixers). The T'wolves still rank 7th in offensive efficiency, even after being held to an average of 82 PPG in losses to Memphis and Boston. The game vs. the Celtics was yet another where this team blew a double digit lead (led by 13 entering the fourth quarter). They've now held a double digit lead in virtually every game this season. The Pelicans are 3-0 SU since Holliday's return, but it was a career night from fellow PG Tim Frazier (21 pts, 14 assists) that set the tone in last night's shocking blowout in Atlanta. Right off the bat, realize that New Orleans is 1-3 SU/ATS this season when playing in the second game of a back to back this season. Don't look for them to duplicate last night's shooting where they were 52% overall and 44% from three-point range. They are also still giving up 113.2 PPG at home, a frightening number considering Davis' presence. Last year, they gave up 144 points to the T'wolves in a loss! 8* Minnesota |
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11-23-16 | Cal Poly v. Northern Illinois -9 | Top | 68-64 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
10* Northern Illinois (8:00 ET): After losing for the first time, I like the Huskies' chances of getting back on track tonight in DeKalb. Saturday, they lost by two out at Cal State Northridge (covered as 2.5-pt dogs), but here it's a West Coast team having to make the trip to their gym. All things considered, it's been an impressive start for Northern Illinois as they've won all three home games, including one against Indiana State. Can't say the same for Cal Poly-SLO, however, as the Mustangs lost and failed to cover their first two road games, at Pepperdine and Arizona State. Back to back home wins over the likes of Cal St Dom Hills and Bethesda aren't going to change my view of this team whatsoever. Lay the points. This is NIU's own tournament, so you'd naturally expect them to play well. Elon and IL-Chicago are also in DeKalb this week and will be the next two opponents for both teams with three games played over a four-day span (no games tomorrow). Yes, I did play against Northern Illinois on Saturday in that trip to CS-Northridge. I was lucky enough to escape with a push (bet the game at -2), but the reality is even that was quite the fortunate result. One could reasonably conclude that the Huskies would have won that game were it not for a massive shooting disparity that saw them make only 34.1% of their FG attempts while CS-Northridge was 51.9%. Both teams actually made the same number of field goals (28), but NIU had 82 attempts to 54 for CSN! If just two of those extra 28 shots would have gone down, they would have won! A big reason that I went against Northern Illinois in that spot was they were on the road and their opponent had revenge. Neither of those situations are present tonight. The Huskies have won 31 of their past 37 home games and are 14-1 SU (10-3 ATS) after scoring 80+ Points the previous game. In the first three games in DeKalb, they averaged 80.7 PPG. Meanwhile, Cal Poly is just 8-23 SU its L31 road games and allowed both Pepperdine and Arizona State to shoot better than 50% from the field earlier in the year. If NIU can get off anywhere near the number of shots they did at Cal-State Northridge, they'll win this one easily. 10* Northern Illinois |
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11-23-16 | Heat +4.5 v. Pistons | Top | 84-107 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
10* Miami (7:35 ET): Coming into the year, these were two Eastern Conference teams expected to trend in very opposite directions. Miami finished third in the conference LY w/ a 48-34 SU record, but the defection of Dwyane Wade and others (no Chris Bosh) led most reasonable minds to conclude that the Heat would tumble down the standings this year. That has pretty much played out as they stand at 4-9 entering tonight after an embarrassing loss to the 76ers on Monday. But, somewhat surprisingly, the Pistons appear to be in just as bad of shape as they've dropped four in a row entering tonight (also 0-4 ATS) and they're simply not playing as well as people expected coming off LY's 8th place finish. Take the points. One bright spot for the Heat right now is their defense. They are one of only three teams in the league to currently be allowing fewer than one point per possession. A big key in that is Hassan Whiteside, who is averaging 14.8 points, 12.5 rebounds and 3.5 blocks per game. He had a career-high 32 points against Philadelphia, but the problem is that no one else stepped up. Quite frankly, the rest of the Heat were terrible as they combined to shoot a horrendous 21 of 69 from the floor, which is barely above 30%. One could point to the absence of Justise Winslow, but things had been going fine previous to Monday as the team had won B2B games straight up and covered four straight. Yes, there was a six-game SU losing streak to start November, but half of those losses were by three points or less. The same can be said for Detroit, who has lost three times by three points or less in this four-game losing streak of theirs. But they're still being priced as if that streak has not occurred, which is a problem for them. I have these teams rated evenly coming into tonight, so anything over +3 is a value on Miami, especially in what figures to be a low-scoring game (Under is 7-0 in Detroit home games so far). Overall, the Pistons are just 2-7 SU and ATS their last nine games. 10* Miami |
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11-23-16 | UL-Lafayette v. James Madison -3 | Top | 82-70 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
8* James Madison (4:00 ET): It has not been a good start to the season for the Dukes of JMU. I should know as I played against them 10 days ago, when as a 6-point favorite, they lost outright to Rice 94-70! They're now 0-4 following losses to Montana State and Texas Southern. Therefore, it may seem curious that the oddsmakers would favor them here, but that probably speaks to how bad UL Lafayette is. The Ragin Cajuns dropped their first two games, both on the road, one at Montana State as well. They've since "bounced back" w/ B2B wins at home, but both came against non-lined opponents, OK Panhandle State and Delaware State. Monday's win over Delaware State came only by a single point. Lay the points here. James Madison did not shoot the ball well vs. Texas Southern and that's putting it mildly. They shot only 18 of 50 (35%) overall from the floor, including a dreadful 5 of 21 from three-point range. It was their second straight bad shooting night as they were just 30.4% overall at Montana State! Ironically, their best shooting game of the young season came in their most lopsided loss, the aforementioned game against Rice. That one was at least at home, so that's something to lean on. I see the offense increasing tonight against a LA Lafayette team that has already given up 82+ points in three games this season. Meanwhile, in the Ragin Cajuns first two road games, they too were below 37% shooting. A big issue for JMU to this point has been the status of Ramone Snowden and Vince Holmes, two key transfers that were expected to contribute immediately. However, both were quickly suspended for violating team rules. Holmes has yet to play in a game. Snowden, who comes by way of Niagara, has played in every game but is struggling to find his shot (30% FG). I look for Snowden to break out here. Winless and off a game where a comeback effort fell short, I'm expecting to see some fire from JMU here in what will be their last home game before December 20th! There's a sense of urgency in Richmond right now that the visitors will be unable to match tonight. 8* James Madison |
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11-22-16 | Indiana -11 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | Top | 68-71 | Loss | -165 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
8* Indiana (9:00 ET): This will be my second time playing against IPFW this year and the reason here will be, generally speaking, the same as the first. Unbeknownst to many, the Mastadons were the top ATS team in the country last year. That's going by percentage at least as they were 21-8 at the pay window. No team that played at least seven games LY covered at that high of a percentage (almost 75%). Therefore, I've stipulated that regression is coming for 2016-17. After IPFW covered the spread in the season opener, losing 92-83 at Arkansas (but as 15-pt dogs), I target them for a fade last Wednesday and they got hammered by Illinois State, 75-57 (getting only 6.5). I've got no problem laying points here w/ an even better team. This is a rare early season road date, but obviously they won't be going far. It's their only scheduled "true" road game of the non-conference slate. Having won by nearly 40 pts on Saturday (against Liberty) and w/ the next game not until Sunday, the Mastadons should have the Hoosiers' full attention here. Already, IU has recorded one impressive win as they beat Kansas in the season opener, 103-99 as six-point dogs. Tom Crean typically fields an offensive juggernaut and this year appears to be no different. Through three games, the team is averaging 96.7 PPG. Yes, overtime was needed to beat Kansas, but even then the Hoosiers scored 89 pts in regulation. One of the games IPFW failed to cover last year was against Indiana. Playing in Bloomington, they lost 90-65 as 20-pt dogs. I don't think that the linesmakers have shifted enough to represent the growing discrepancy between the two programs for this year. Indiana is now ranked #3 in the country. As mentioned earlier, they just destroyed Liberty, holding the Flames to 29.7% shooting from the floor and forcing 26 turnovers. The Hoosiers dominated the rebounding battle and shot better than 60% themselves. It may not be that dominant this go around, but it doesn't have to be. 8* Indiana |
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11-22-16 | Pelicans v. Hawks -8 | Top | 112-94 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): I'm a little surprised that this isn't a double digit spread. I have the Hawks rated among the top five teams in the league currently, alongside all "the usual suspects." (Those being the Clippers, Warriors, Spurs and Cavs). In fact, this team holds a win over the Cavaliers, in Cleveland no less. They come into tonight off B2B losses though, falling on the road to Charlotte (by four) and the Knicks (early Sunday start). The team did drop B2B games once before ... and promptly responded by blowing out a good Houston team here at home immediately after. Therefore, I don't see them having trouble w/ the Pelicans. Considering New Orleans was a seven-point dog at Orlando last week, this price looks like a real bargain by comparison. Lay the points. Since opening 0-8 SU, New Orleans has won four of its last six games. But this team is still "Anthony Davis and little else." Now the return of PG Jrue Holliday has been big as they are 2-0 SU since his return (was tending to his ill wife). Yes, the Pelicans just beat the same Charlotte team that handed Atlanta a loss. But there's a few things that should be pointed out there. One is that the Pellies got them at home in the second night of a back to back (Hornets had just beaten Atlanta the previous night). It was an overtime game as well where NO had to rally from an 11-pt deficit heading into the 4Q. When the Hawks lost to the Hornets the previous night, Dwight Howard was ejected in the 4Q. Dennis Schroeder flat out stunk Sunday in New York, going 0 for 8 from the field. Improvement is a guarantee tonight. Also, the Hawks will welcome key reserve Thabo Sefolosha back to the lineup tonight (missed L3 games). It is important to note that Atlanta is now #1 in the league in defensive efficiency (.96 points per possession) and will be facing a New Orleans offense which ranks 25th. Despite the cities close proximity, this is the first meeting in over a year between these two teams. Atlanta swept last year and was a 13-pt favorite when they hosted. They are 6-1 ATS at home so far this year while New Orleans is 12-26 ATS off its L38 SU dog victories. 10* Atlanta |
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11-21-16 | Western Carolina v. Ohio State -26.5 | Top | 38-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
8* Ohio State (7:00 ET): The Buckeyes are 3-0 SU, but have yet to cover the spread a single time (0-3 ATS). Wins over Navy, NC Central and Providence have all been by 10 pts or less. Therefore, on the surface, it may not seem like a good idea to lay this monster number tonight as Western Carolina pays a visit. But the Catamounts are prime material to get routed seeing as they've already fallen by more than this spread twice this season and this will be their second road game in three days. The first resulted in a 35-point loss at Marshall (were +16 there). They've also lost at Miami FL by 49, in the season opener (were +22.5 there). Lay the points. This game is a part of the non-bracketed, Global Sports Invitational. The two sides have already played one common opponent, that being NC Central. While the Buckeyes certainly could have been a lot more impressive against the Eagles, they still won 69-63 here in Columbus, last Monday (were -24). Meanwhile, Western Carolina lost to them at home, 67-59, in a non-lined affair. "I didn't like a whole lot of what I saw tonight," Ohio State coach Thad Matta said in reference to his team's win over NC Central. Matta would go on to say, "We weren't physically and mentally very tough. Obviously, we have to get that corrected." Fortunately for Matta, his team looked a lot better in Thursday's 72-67 win over Providence, though the MOV was no greater. But OSU did dominate in terms of shooting the basketball, 50 percent to 35.4. Western Carolina scored only 59 pts against NC Central and has been even more inept offensively on the road, scoring just 53 PPG in road losses to Miami and Marshall. Even worse, they've shot below 30 percent in those two losses. I just don't see the issues being corrected here. The Buckeyes have been one of the more dominant home teams in the country under Matta, posting the most home wins of any D-I team at home since 2007-08 w/ 124. JaQuan Lyle had a monster game vs. Providence, registering 21 pts, eight rebounds and seven assists. 8* Ohio State |
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11-21-16 | George Washington v. Georgia -6 | Top | 73-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
10* Georgia (7:00 ET): This game takes place in Kansas City, Missouri and is a semifinal matchup in the CBE Hall of Fame Classic. After losing the season opener, 74-64 at Clemson, the Bulldogs have bounced back to post B2B victories in this event, beating UNC-Asheville and Furman. While both games were closer than the 'Dawgs would have liked, I'm still impressed enough by what I saw. Remember that this is a program that has won 20+ games each of the L3 seasons under HC Mark Fox. As for George Washington, they arrive in KC at 3-0 SU, but were hardly impressive in narrow wins over MD-Eastern Shore or Siena (both decided by four points or less). In their last game, the Colonials were fortunate that Ark Pine Bluff shot a woeful 26.7% from the floor (GW was at 35.6%). It was a different kind of game last time out for UGA as they had to deal w/ Furman shooting the ball at a 50% clip on Thursday. What kept the Paladins in the game was a 10 of 21 mark from three-point range (UGA was just 5 of 18). But while the 'Dawgs may have struggled from distance, they dominated on the interior, going 23 of 35 on two-point attempts. Yante Maten and JJ Frazier again carried the scoring load w/ a combined 55 points. Over the L3 seasons, this team is 9-4 ATS coming off a game where it scored 80+ points. Also of interest is they don't get upset much; their SU record when priced as the favorite is an impressive 31-6 SU. George Washington won the NIT last year, but has far less experience on this year's squad w/ eight underclassmen suiting up. Contrast that w/ Georgia, who figures to be a threat in the better SEC. Again, GW struggled to get by MD-Eastern Shore in its opener (despite a massive +20 edge in attempts at the FT line) and then was back and forth virtually the whole way w/ Siena at home last Tuesday. The Colonials won't have the same edges on the interior here as they did against the Saints, nor will Georgia shoot the ball as poorly as Arkansas Pine Bluff did on Thursday. Neither team has shot the ball particularly well from three-point range, but I'll point to the fact that Georgia has more overall talent and GW is just 2-8 ATS its L10 games vs. the SEC. 10* Georgia |
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11-20-16 | Long Beach State +15.5 v. UCLA | Top | 77-114 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
8* Long Beach State (10:00 ET): UCLA is 3-0 and played three home games against overmatched foes. Not surprisingly, Pacific, CS-Northridge and San Diego all fell by the wayside by double digit margins. Tonight, they host a Long Beach State team whose record is unfair as they've certainly been unafraid to step up and take on strong competition. That's been the hallmark under Dan Monson, but this year has taken things to a whole new level. The 49ers have played Wichita State, North Carolina and Louisville in the L3 games and due to some uncharacteristically poor shooting, all three went really poorly. But I look for a bounce back here and I'm taking the points. Playing a fourth straight top foe on the road and third ranked opponent in less than five days seems like a really tough spot. But Monson should have his team ready. They've shot just 31.2%, 36.4% and 29.5% those L3 games and I cannot state enough how they're almost certain to top those percentages tonight. UCLA is allowed 80 and 87 pts its first two games. Also, bad defense has hurt the 49ers. Both Wichita State and North Carolina shot better than 55% against them. Again, those numbers are a virtual lock to come down. This perennial Big West power is better than its shown thus far and is due for a competitive game. They've played UCLA tough each of the last two years, losing by only 7 and 14 pts. While UCLA is getting at least 14 PPG from five different players, they will not be able to keep that up. Four players on the roster are dealing w/ injuries right now. It should be pointed out that they failed to cover against both CS-Northridge and San Diego. In games with high totals such as this, these teams have experienced very different results. If the total is 160 to 169.5, UCLA is 0-8 ATS the L3 seasons. Meanwhile, LBSU is 11-2 ATS L13, 5-0 if away from home. They are also 10-4 ATS after allowing 80+ points the previous game. This is a bounce back spot for the underdog and a great spot to fade an overvalued favorite. 8* Long Beach State |
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11-20-16 | Jazz +3.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 91-105 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
8* Utah (9:05 ET): Both of these Northwest Division teams are pretty banged up right now. Utah, a popular pick to break through into the upper echelon of the Western Conference this year, started in kind at 6-2 straight up. They are now 7-7 SU. They've lost three straight, the first two as favorites. But then yday, even getting 6.5, they could not cover in what ended up being a 111-102 loss to Houston. But I thought there was some positive takeaways. Other than Gordon Hayward, the other four Jazz starters had a combined seven years of NBA experience. Yet the team actually shot better than 50% from the floor. Really, the box score shows an even matchup except for the 14-5 disadvantage Utah faced in turnovers. Denver has covered its last three games. But they have just one SU win in their last six. They come in off a OT loss here at home to Toronto, 113-111. After falling behind early (trailed by 10 after 1Q), the Nuggets rallied to take a five point lead by halftime. From there, it was a close game throughout. But even though the Raptors shot only 61% from the FT line and 45.7% from the floor, Denver could not get the job done. Part of the problem is that they were a horrendous 4 of 25 from three-point range. Another issue is that they are really thin in the backcourt right now. Both Gary Harris and Will Barton are out and HC Michael Malone has been tinkering w/ his starting lineup. This team's only SU win over the L6 games came at Phoenix's expense. Denver is just 1-4 SU at home this year. I believe Utah is being undervalued here due to the back to back situation. Note Saturday's game was played a little earlier than normal, so this B2B may not be as tough as some others. By the way, the Jazz are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS playing in the second game of a back to back this year! They are also 5-1 ATS playing against a team w/ a losing record. In terms of efficiency, there is no denying which team has been better and even the Nuggets' home court edge shouldn't make them a favorite here. Utah is allowing only 94.4 PPG so far (#1 in the league!) while Denver is allowing 108.3 (bottom 7). The Jazz are 6-2 SU and ATS the L8 head to head meetings including a 4-0 SU sweep LY. 8* Utah |
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11-20-16 | St. Joe's v. Ole Miss -2 | Top | 68-81 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
10* Ole Miss (6:00 ET): Going against St. Joe's didn't prove to be fruitful on Friday afternoon, but I'm going back to the well here on Sunday. The Hawks covered more games (24) than any other team in the country last year, but have lost a lot of talent since then. There's also the simple "law of averages" at play here, which says they simply won't be as profitable here in 2016-17. But after failing to cover the season opener (won by 1 over Toledo), I give them credit for posting double digit wins over Columbia and Loyola Chicago. But now it's time for what is clearly the stiffest test yet, that being a date w/ fellow 3-0 team Ole Miss. I like the Rebels to come through Sunday evening in the Virgin Islands. While Mississippi is 3-0 SU, they are also 0-3 ATS. All three wins thus far have been by seven points or less. That largest MOV of 7 pts also happened to come in an overtime game, their last time out, against Oral Roberts. So because of all the close calls, we're now getting a better than expected value. Note that the Rebels still average 90.3 points per game! Obviously then, you'd like to see them tighten the defense up. But when you have Miami (FL) transfer DeAndre Burnett pouring in 41 pts (like he did vs. Oral Roberts, who needs defense? Also, it's not like Andy Kennedy's team is playing that bad of defense, they just play at a fast pace. No opponent has shot better than 47.7%, at least overall. Oral Roberts was able to stay in the game by shooting a somewhat ridiculous 11 of 19 from the three-point line and 15 of 16 from the FT line. St. Joe's shot 55.2% against Columbia, but other than that they haven't been so hot from the floor. They really benefited from Loyola only getting to the free throw line 12 times on Friday and missing 21 of 27 three-point attempts. Their two best players from last year - DeAndre Bembry and Isaiah Miles - both departed. One returning player (Pierfrancesco Oliva) is already out for the year and another - James Demery - is dealing with a foot injury and will be out 2-3 weeks. I'm not coming off what I said two days ago and that's St. Joe's is fade material right now. 10* Ole Miss |
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11-19-16 | Northern Illinois v. CS-Northridge -2 | Top | 82-84 | Push | 0 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
8* CS Northridge (11:00 ET): Both Northern Illinois and CS-Northridge have played three games. The former is 3-0 while the latter is 1-2. But as is so often the case, records can be misleading. Northern Illinois has yet to leave DeKalb and has played three very weak opponents (Indiana St, Roosevelt, Idaho). Meanwhile, CS-Northridge comes off road dates vs. UCLA and Stanford, neither of which you'd expect them to win (were double digit dogs both times out). Here though, the Matadors are a slight favorite at home and I think a great value. NIU hasn't shot well in either of its two wins over D-I teams. This is also a revenge spot for CSN. Lay the points. Last year, in DeKalb, Northern Illinois beat CS Northridge 83-71 as 9.5-pt dogs. We touched on NIU's relatively poor shooting this year, but let's revisit the shooting numbers from this matchup last year, shall we? The Mastadons actually outshot the Huskies from the floor (47.3% to 44.4%), but three-pointers were huge as were free throws for the eventual winner. NIU was 11-24 from behind the arc while CSN was 4-12. Meanwhile, from the charity stripe, CSN actually missed more than they made and they had 31 attempts. Talk about a lot of missed opportunities in a game lost by single digits. For the record, NIU was 24 of 34 on its free throw attempts. True road games have seen Northern Illinois go just 7-21 SU the previous two seasons (2-8 ATS L10). They are also 9-23 SU as an underdog the L2 years. The 14-point win over Idaho on Wednesday was a bit misleading in the sense that the game was tied at halftime and the Vandals shot only 32% from the floor. Also, NIU had a massive 25-9 edge at the free throw line. This is a good spot for the host Matadors to get back on track. 8* CS Northridge |
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11-18-16 | Loyola-Chicago +5 v. St. Joe's | Top | 57-71 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
8* Loyola Chicago (12:30 ET): I'm looking to go against St. Joe's here simply because the Hawks owe the books some money. What do I mean by that? Well, last year saw them finish w/ one of the best ATS records in the country (24-11). In fact, no team covered MORE games. Earlier this week, recall we faded another team that was quite profitable last year (IPFW) and they were blown out. Here we can grab points at a neutral location (Virgin Islands) w/ a team that has already won three times this year. That would be Loyola Chicago, who has predictably dominated three overmatched foes by an average of 37.4 points per game. Meanwhile, St. Joe's was lucky to escape Toledo in the opener before a hot shooting night enabled them to get by Columbia. There hasn't been a game yet where Loyola has failed to shoot better than 50% from the floor while holding the opponent under 37%. Of course, Alcorn State, Indiana-Northwest and Eurkea is a real "rogue's gallery." But dominating those teams is what was expected from the Ramblers and exactly what they delivered. In the past, this team has taken advantage of getting the points as in a 22-12 ATS record the L2 seasons as an underdog. While picked to finish near the bottom of the Missouri Valley, this is already the best start for the program since '97. The three big wins have given this team some confidence. Remember they nearly upset Wichita State in the MWC Tourney last year. Milton Doyle (16.7 PPG, 5.7 RPG) is a great player and a couple of key transfers have made this roster much better than we've seen in past years. As for St. Joe's, they are by no means as strong as last year's 28-8 SU squad. Their two best players - DeAndre Bembry and Isaiah Miles - both departed. One returning player (Pierfrancesco Oliva) is already out for the year and another - James Demery - is dealing with a foot injury and listed as questionable here. We saw the Hawks struggle in the opener - at home - against Toledo. That was a game they trailed most of the first half and never led by more than four points. They won't shoot as well here in the Virgin Islands as they did vs. Columbia. 8* Loyola Chicago |
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11-17-16 | 76ers v. Wolves -10.5 | Top | 86-110 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Though they let me down in the last game, I'm coming back with the T'wolves here. Despite a poor 3-7 SU/ATS record, they have actually outscored opponents this season by 1.8 PPG. Only ten teams have a better point differential. They rank third in the league in offensive efficiency, behind only Golden State and Toronto. How is it that they have all these impressive stats, but an unimpressive record? Well, the "issue" is that all three of their wins have been lopsided blowouts. Those wins came at the expense of Memphis, Orlando and the Lakers, two of them here at home. Here, the opponent can't be any worse as it's Philadelphia and this is a rare spot to actually fade the 76ers off a win! Lay the points. When I first checked the score Tuesday night, I was happy w/ what I saw. Minnesota led a tough Charlotte team by double digits at the break (were +2) and seemed well on their way to snapping an 0-14 SU skid when off a double digit win (they had blown out the Lakers by 26 Sunday night, my 10* Game of the Week). Unfortunately, what followed was a dreadful third quarter that saw them get outscored 36-17. This was not the first time the T'wolves have blown a double digit lead this season. In fact, it was the sixth time! In eight of the team's 10 games this year, they have led by double digits at some point in the first half. The third quarter has been a killer all year long and defensively the team needs work (28th in efficiency). Fortunately for tonight, they face the worst offensive team in the sport. Philadelphia averages a woeful .947 points per possession, last in the league. Only four other teams are under 1.00 PPP. Per 100 possessions, the Sixers are being outscored by 12 points, which is also (easily) the worst mark in the league. They did beat Washington last night, 109-102, as seven-point dogs. But frankly, the Wizards aren't very good. Note this is a virtually identical setup to the last time Philly was off a win. After upsetting Indiana at home, they had to go on the road the following night and w/o rest got blown out by Atlanta, 117-96. They've failed to cover both game this year when unrested, losing by an average of 17.5 PPG. 10* Minnesota |
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11-17-16 | Elon -4.5 v. South Florida | Top | 74-61 | Win | 100 | 19 h 2 m | Show |
10* Elon (7:00 ET): This line has skyrocketed, but may have reached it apex. Regardless, I would bet ASAP. To the casual observer, this seems like a curious game to experience such a significant line move. However, USF is still w/o Jahmal McMurray, who is expected to be suspended for the first six games of the year for an "undisclosed violation." This is a significant loss for the Bulls. McMurray was their top returning scorer from a year ago (15.2 PPG). At times, he was the only reliable offensive option for a team that would finish 8-25 SU overall. An 84-73 win over non-lined Florida A&M does little to dissuade me that USF is going to be in a lot of trouble w/o their best player. Lay the points here. Elon College, who comes by way of the Colonial, and is off a wild 100-95 loss to Charlotte Monday where they were 4.5-pt home favorites. No the game did not into overtime. While overall shooting was actually in favor of the Phoenix, what ultimately undid them was the three-point line. Charlotte shot a preposterous 10 of 14 from three-point range. Elon took nearly twice as many three-point shots (26), but made one less. I can't stress enough how rare it is to see a team go 10 of 14 from three-point range. South Florida certainly won't, that's for sure. Furthermore, the FT line hurt Elon on Monday as well. They were only 18 of 26 from the charity stripe while Charlotte went 22 of 26. Considering they scored 100 pts in their season opener (vs. lightly regarded William Peace), I don't think the Phoenix will have much trouble scoring here. These schools have never met before. Look for Elon's Steven Santa Ana to be the difference maker here. He went for 32 points in the last game and made five three-pointers. As far as the price range goes, Elon is 10-3 ATS as a road fave of 3.5 to 6 points, including 2-0 the L3 seasons. USF is 6-18 ATS as a home dog in that same range, including 0-4 the L3 seasons. Bottom line is that the oddsmakers made this line way too low and will pay for it. 10* Elon |
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11-16-16 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Illinois State -6.5 | Top | 57-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
8* Illinois State (7:00 ET): Unless you're a real college basketball die-hard (like me!), then you are probably unaware that IPFW was one of the best ATS teams in the nation last year. The Mastadons were an impressive 21-8 at the betting window, the best such record for any team that played more than seven lined games. True to form, they covered in this year's season opener at Arkansas. As 15-pt road underdogs, they lost 92-83. They've since played another game, which was not lined, and beat Kenyon College 117-60. That's a meaningless result. Tonight, they visit Normal, IL and I feel the result will be "anything but normal" for IPFW, at least as far as the pointspread is concerned as the number is way too small. Lay the points. Illinois State dropped its season opener, as a two-point road favorite at Murray State. It was a back and forth game throughout w/ things not decided until a GW three-pointer was made w/ 1.5 seconds remaining. Note that the biggest lead in the game - eight points - was held by ISU. The Redbirds also led by seven w/ 3:23 remaining. So it was a tough loss. A big problem is that while they shot at roughly the same percentage as Murray State from three-point range, the Racers made twice as many. That's an 18-point edge right there, which is tough to overcome on the road. Murray State is also a good team, certainly better than IPFW. It speaks volumes that ISU was favored on the road against them. IPFW will not shoot better than 60% again like they did vs. Kenyon. Note they shot just 36.2% against Arkansas. Illinois State is 24-8 SU its L32 home games. They have also won 28 of the last 37 times (straight up) they have been favored. With the number so short here, I like the Redbirds to win and cover. 8* Illinois State |
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11-15-16 | Hornets v. Wolves +2 | Top | 115-108 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): I'm bucking some pretty serious history w/ this play. Over the past three seasons, the T'wolves are 0-14 straight up (3-11 ATS) when coming off a double digit win. That includes an 0-2 SU/ATS mark already this season. But, despite what you've just read, I'll be taking them at home tonight against Charlotte. This is a much better Minnesota than in years' past and while they are only 3-6 SU so far, their three double digit wins have resulted in a positive point differential for the season (+4.0 per 100 possessions). They are #2 in offensive efficiency, trailing only annual leader Golden State. Charlotte has been impressive in its own right so far, but I expect them to start coming back down to Earth. Take the points. While their three wins have come by a total of 78 points, the T'wolves' six losses have been by a total of only 53 points. Two of the losses were to OKC and the Clippers. The other four were all single digit defeats, three of them by four points or less. Typically, and this goes for all sports, point differential and the ability to win by large margins are better predictors of future success (or lack of it) than a team's actual record. In the case of Minnesota, I like what I've seen and right now would consider them to be the leading contender to nab the 8-seed in the Western Conference. My *10* Game of the Week Sunday was on them as they destroyed the Lakers 125-99, paced by a career-high 47 points from Andrew Wiggins. I actually like Karl-Anthony Towns even more, so there's a real solid foundation for 1st year HC Tom Thibodeau. This is a tough spot for Charlotte following B2B close losses to Toronto and Cleveland. Expect this team to still finish in the top 4-5 of the Eastern Conference as their strong second half LY went largely unnoticed. But, as I just said, I just don't like the spot. Yes, they are 5-1 ATS laying points thus far and surprisingly that includes three road games. But this is only the Hornets' fifth road game overall and the previous three teams they were favored against - Milwaukee, Miami and Brooklyn - should all be considered inferior to this opponent. Jeremy Lamb is still out for the visitors as well. 8* Minnesota |
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11-15-16 | Southern Miss v. LSU -17 | Top | 61-78 | Push | 0 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
8* LSU (8:00 ET): This will be my second time going w/ LSU in this young season. Given my record, you should already have concluded that the first went well. It did as they beat up on Wofford, 91-69 as only a seven-point choice. Now, they face another team off a high scoring Opening Night win, that being Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles come off a 101-96 victory, but that was with double overtime and against a team named "Tougaloo," a NAIA school. Win or not, that result is certainly not a good sign when stepping up in class from a NAIA opponent to one from the SEC. Meanwhile, this is probably a DROP in class for LSU. Lay the points. Little defense was played in that USM-Tougaloo matchup. How do I know? Well, look no further than the box score which reveals that the Golden Eagles shot 56.7% from the floor, including 7 of 14 from three-point range. I don't see a duplication of those numbers tonight, in fact, I see a massive dropoff. Unfortunately, that coincides with a worrisome USM defense which permitted a NAIA school to shoot better than 50% - on the road. Speaking of the road, it has not been kind to USM in recent years, particularly in this price game. The team is just 3-25 SU in true road games the L3 seasons not to mention 0 for its last 42 as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points. LSU, on the other hand, is 26-7 SU its L33 home games including nine straight victories as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points. They are 47-2 L49 at -12.5 or higher in Baton Rouge. Two years ago, they downed Southern Miss by 20 here (were 17-point favorites). Just to rehash from my analysis Friday: though it is by no means "addition by subtraction," I think this team will be better off this year w/o Ben Simmons, who often struggled to integrate himself into the flow of the offense. Another positive in that the Tigers won't be consistently overvalued. Remember, at one point last season, they were 9-3 SU in SEC play! 8* LSU |
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11-15-16 | Delaware v. La Salle -15.5 | Top | 68-74 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
10* LaSalle (7:00 ET): Similar to yday's play on Nevada, we will use fairly "worthless" results to our advantage in handicapping this game. Delaware is 2-0 SU, but one of those wins came at the expense of something called "Goldey-Beacom." The Blue Hens did, and I give them credit here, upset Bradley their last time out as eight-point underdogs. Yet they're even more significant dogs for tonight's trip to Philly as they take on LaSalle. This despite the host Explorers being off an outright loss (were -2.5) at cross-town rival Temple Friday. That was an overtime game for the record. Given Temple just lost last night at home to New Hampshire, one might seek to conclude that this seems like a "real steal" to take the points. But the oddsmakers clearly aren't buying it and nor am I. Had the results discussed above not unfolded they way they did, one has to wonder what this line would have been. I think LaSalle should be commended for still getting to 92 points despite shooting only 42.3% against Temple, including 9 of 28 from three-point range. I think that it's more than reasonable to expect the Explorers to shoot better tonight in their own gym. Yes, overtime aided them in getting to 92 points, but scoring 81 in regulation is "nothing to sneeze at." This is a relatively deep team now, with two freshman starting. Ten different players saw action Friday and all of them have started at one point or another in their careers. Though they're 2-0, I see Delaware really struggling to keep pace in this one. They've scored just 64 and 63 points in their two wins and beat a D-II school by just eight points. They've shot no better than LaSalle to this point and have actually been worse from three-point range (27.6%). So you can see that one team obviously plays at a much faster pace. A key to the Blue Hens success so far has been atrocious shooting from their opponents. Both Goldey-Beacom and Bradley shot 32% from the field. Sure, the Delaware defense needs to be credited there, but only to a point. LaSalle will shoot better, play faster and is simply the Blue Hens' most talented opponent yet. I expect a blowout here, so lay the points. 10* LaSalle |
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11-14-16 | Loyola Marymount v. Nevada -11.5 | Top | 64-79 | Win | 103 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
8* Nevada (10:00 ET): Both teams here already have a game played under their respective belts. Given the pointspread for tonight's matchup, you might be surprised to learn how those first games each went. Then again, considering Loyola Marymount's opponent was something named "Vanguard University" (NAIA school), I think it goes w/o saying that a win there was all but assured. But just to show how little that result meant, the Lions are still sizable underdogs to Nevada here despite the Wolfpack taking it on the chin in their opener (at St. Mary's). We'll use these results to our advantage here as I believe the home team to be significantly undervalued as a result. Lay the points. There are some wild shooting numbers to report on from each team's game on Friday. LMU saw Vanguard University shoot a preposterously low 23.2% from the floor (16-69) including 1 of 18 from three-point range. Those Lions (also Vanguard's nickname) had no "roar" whatsoever as they shot an unconscionable 5 of 35 after halftime and finished w/ only 17 pts in the second half! Needless to say, when LMU jumped out to a 20-2 lead, the game was basically over. But let's not make any conclusions that LMU is significantly better than we thought because of that result, which was a glorified exhibition game. This team is being picked to finish near the bottom of the West Coast Conference and is outside the Top 200 in most reputable power rankings systems. Nevada ran into one of the top WCC teams Friday night, that being St. Mary's, who shot 60 percent from the floor en route to an 81-63 victory. I don't know what it is about the Gaels and early season home games, but they always seem to shoot ridiculously well in them. Keep in mind that St. Mary's opened the year ranked #17 in the country, so this is a massive drop in class for the Wolfpack. I have seen this team projected for as high as a third place finish in the Mountain West this year. Loyola Marymount was very bad defensively last year (allowed 74.8 PPG) and beat only ONE top 150 RPI team all year, that being Pepperdine in double OT. Home team rolls in this one. 8* Nevada |
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11-13-16 | Lakers v. Wolves -4 | Top | 99-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (7:05 ET): The T'wolves let me down last night, losing to the Clippers 119-105. While there's no shame in losing to the best team in the league right now, I had thought Minny could at least take advantage of a generous spread at home w/ LA coming in off a hard fought victory (at OKC) the night before. The problem was they fell behind early and could never really recover. That's a rarity as the T'wolves entered last night as the highest scoring first quarter team in the league. They've blown multiple double digit leads already and I feel they're far better than the 2-6 SU record as they are still own a positive point differential for the season! Meanwhile, it's probably about that time to start fading the Lakers. They've won five of six, including a 126-99 beatdown of New Orleans last night, on the road no less. For those struggling to explain the Lakers' surprising succes this year, it's actually pretty easy. They removed the biggest ballhog in league history from their lineup (you know who) and the offense has improved dramatically. But that offense still hasn't been as efficient as Minnesota's has been. I take a look at this line and can't help but feel its decreased far too much from what it would have been just a few days ago. I give the Lakers credit, but they are clearly playing "above themselves right now" and it's only a matter of time before they begin to regress, in my view. Playing in the second game of a back to back has not been kind to the Lakers in the past; they are just 5-30 SU in that spot the L3 seasons! Yes, they did beat Atlanta earlier in the year w/o rest. Double digits wins like last night have been rare for this team in recent years and they are just 3-9 SU/4-8 ATS off a DD win of any kind the L3 seasons. Last night saw the team shoot better than 55% from the floor (!) and that can't possibly carry over to tonight's game. If anything, LA is due for an off-shooting night. Again, in terms of efficiency, the T'wolves have been the better offensive team this year. To sum it all up, what we have here is one team that's been overperforming its expectations by a wide margin and another that's undeperforming. I look for a return to normalcy tonight. 10* Minnesota |
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11-13-16 | Rice +5 v. James Madison | Top | 94-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
8* Rice (2:00 ET): This little school in Dallas, TX was quite kind to me on Saturday as the football team (had just 1 game all season) went to Charlotte as 10.5-pt underdogs and won outright, a ~SIGNATURE~ 10* ULTIMATE POWER release! Now, I'll look to back the school's basketball program as they look to erase the memory of a bankroll busting campaign last season. The Owls finished 2015-16 at 7-18-2 ATS, which was the worst pointspread record in the country of any team that played at least 10 games. But they were only outscored by an average of 4.7 PPG. I'll make the case that it will be a nice little bounce back season for Mike Rhoades' team. Take the points. James Madison is the opponent for Rice on Sunday and the Dukes have already played a game. They lost it, 62-55, at Old Dominion. JMU did not shoot the ball well from any range, going just 39.6% overall, including 6 for 30 from three-point range. They also didn't help themselves the few times they got to the free throw line, going only 7 of 13 there. JMU actually led (by one) at the half, but allowed the first basket of the second half and trailed the rest of the way. Looking at the preseason CAA projections, the Dukes are a team expected to finish in the middle of the pack and remember that league isn't as strong as it once was. You may recall they went 21-11 SU a year ago, good for third in the league. But they were one and done in the conference tournament. Playing for a second time in three days, though it's early in the season, I don't think does this team any favors. Like JMU, Rice returns four starters from LY. Most notable is Marcus Evans, who led all freshman last year by averaging 21.4 points per game! Evans will be the best player on the floor Sunday afternoon. Not much is expected from the Owls this year (picked for 9th in C-USA), but I think they will exceed those low expectations. The problem for them last season was on the defensive end as they gave up 80.5 PPG, one of the worst marks in the entire country. There's just no way they don't see a decrease in that average. As we saw in their opener, JMU isn't a strong offensive team and they're just 13-27-1 ATS L41 home games. 8* Rice |
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11-12-16 | Clippers v. Wolves +4 | Top | 119-105 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Interestingly enough, my own personal power rankings indicate that the Clippers should be favored by MORE in this contest. But two things need to be taken into account here. One is that the Clips are playing in the second game of a back to back. Often times, we find teams undervalued in this role, but note here as they will have been favored (on the road) both times. Secondly, as good as LA has been to this point of the season (8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS), it is highly doubtful that they'll be able to maintain their current pace where they've been outscoring opponents by an incredible 14.9 points per 100 possessions! Off the tough game last night at OKC, the Clips are ripe to be upset. Take the points. Minnesota might be 2-5 SU, but they are better than their record. Believe it or not, they are outscoring their opponents by almost four points per 100 possessions. They are 4th in offensive efficiency. Both of their wins have been blowouts. The last one, three nights ago, saw them go to Orlando and prevail 123-107 as 2.5-point pups. In retrospect, that was an awful line. Three of the T'wolves losses this year have been by four points or less and they blew double digits leads in all of them. There is a chance PG Ricky Rubio could return tonight, which would be a big boost. Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Wiggins form a strong young core. I do believe that 1st year HC Tom Thibodeau will improve the defense. Right now, I'm leaning towards this team being the #8 seed in the Western Conference. The Clips played their worst defensive game of the season last night against OKC, giving up 108 points. That may not seem that shocking to you, but consider that the Thunder rank in the bottom six in the league in offensive efficiency. To reiterate, Minnesota is fourth in that department. The Clips still are giving up only .92 points per possession. There is simply no way they will be able to maintain that average. The Clips have looked good in the back end of both back to backs this year, but eventually the roll has to slow down. It was a two-point game last night in OKC (won 110-108) and it was essentially close throughout. Can this resurgent LA bench really continue to be trusted? 10* Minnesota |
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11-12-16 | Wofford v. LSU -8 | Top | 69-91 | Win | 100 | 5 h 57 m | Show |
8* LSU (2:00 ET): Last year, LSU was a massive bust at the betting window. Among teams that played more than seven lined games, they had one of the worst ATS records in the country at 11-20-1. That included a poor start to the year w/ an 0-5 (ATS) November. The issue was that they were overvalued because of Ben Simmons, who has now moved on to the NBA. Granted, the Tigers were not a bad team; they finished 19-14 SU and at one point were 9-3 SU in SEC play. But a bad finish, which culminated in an embarrassing 71-38 loss to Texas A&M in the conference tourney was "all she wrote." The team may not be better per se this year, but there is definitely more value in taking them at the window. Lay the points here. Wofford, who we've seen in the NCAA Tournament before, also comes in off a down year. They went 15-17 SU overall and finished 4-10 SU in non-conference play. This year, the Terriers are projected to finish third (I've seen as low as fifth) in the Southern Conference where everyone is chasing incumbent Chattanooga. Last year's leading scorer, Spencer Collins, graduated and that leaves some big shoes to fill. This will a young team this year w/ as many as six freshman possibly being asked to contribute. We saw last night w/ our play against Harvard what relying on so many young players can look like this early in the season. Call me crazy, but I think LSU may come together better than expected w/o Simmons. At times last year, it appeared as if the team did not understand how to utilize its superstar properly. Either they were too reliant, or didn't go to him nearly enough. I think that the coaching staff will have a real emphasis on starting the season strong consider the hole that was dug last year. Antonio Blakeney will be one of the top players in the SEC this year. Wofford is only 11-19 ATS in road games the last two seasons and as an underdog they are 7-13 SU/3-17 ATS. 8* LSU |
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11-11-16 | Harvard v. Stanford -4 | Top | 70-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
8* Stanford (11:00 ET): The Cardinal have moved on from Johnny Dawkins. Last year's 15-15 SU (11-15-1 ATS) finish was the "straw that broke the camel's back." In steps former UAB head man Jerod Haase, who helped that program improve its win total each of the four years he was there. By no means is the cupboard bare here in Palo Alto for Haase. He'll inherit four returning starters from LY's team as well as 10 of the top 11 scorers. So there is no reason to believe this team won't improve here in 2016. This game, it should be noted, takes place in China. Harvard has brought in a strong recruiting class and figures to be the favorite in the Ivy League under HC Tommy Amaker. However, the Crimson have largely been a bust when priced as the underdog. Over the last two seasons, they've won just 4 of 17 games in that role. The line is really short here, it should be pointed out. Stanford is 29-8 SU as a favorite the L3 seasons. Theyve also won 21 of the last 28 non-conference games. Robert Cartwright is a name to pay attention to here. The Stanford PG missed all of last season due to a fractured right arm. Him handling the ball should be a big difference maker. Also, remember that this team won the NIT two years ago. It's not that they were a bad team last year; they simply undeperformed under Dawkins. I have them undervalued coming into this year and will gladly lay the points in this opener. 8* Stanford |
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11-10-16 | Pelicans +4.5 v. Bucks | Top | 112-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (8:05 ET): The Pelicans have yet to win a game. The only other team that can claim that dubious distinction is Philadelphia over in the Eastern Conference and that was probably to be expected. Though dealing with numerous absences, there's no excuse for the Pelicans, who have one of the best players in the league in Anthony Davis. Though the team is on the road tonight, I can see them breaking through for that elusive first win. Milwaukee is a team that surprises me in that they rate a lot higher than I expected in my own personal power rankings. But after three straight high scoring wins and covers (one at New Orleans' expense), they managed only 75 points in a dreadful overtime loss at Dallas Sunday. When these teams met back on November 1st, it was a high scoring affair w/ the Bucks coming from behind to win 117-113 as 3.5-pt dogs. Despite a 35-point effort from Davis, the Pelicans were outscored in the pain and outrebounded somewhat significantly as the Bucks got a variety of stunning contributions. Greg Monroe, coming off the bench, even grabbed 11 rebounds. Another problem for New Orleans was that they finished the game by missing 18 of their final 22 three-point attempts. I do not expect these kind of numbers to appear in the box score in tonight's game. What I do expect is another standout performance from Davis, who averages 30.9 PPG and also is among the league leaders in rebounds, steals and blocks. The Bucks just lost to another team that was winless, Dallas, on Sunday. That was with the Mavs missing two starters as well, so there's hope for New Orleans yet. Milwaukee was just dreadful on on the offensive end in the loss, scoring only 48 points after the first quarter! My god. They were outscored 12-1 in the OT period and 27 turnovers for the game certainly didn't help. Losing a game when your opponent shoots 9 of 38 from three-point range is not a good sign at all. This is also just the third time this year that the Bucks will have been favored. They are 1-1 ATS thus far, failing to cover as eight-point chalk over Brooklyn. The Pelicans are still 58-46 ATS as a dog the L3 seasons. 10* New Orleans |
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11-08-16 | Wolves -4 v. Nets | Top | 110-119 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (7:35 ET): The T'wolves have just one win this year, but it came by 36 points (over Memphis). That's a greater margin than their four losses combine to equal (30 points) even after factoring in their first "bad" game of the year, a 112-92 loss at Oklahoma City Saturday night. Prior to that, Minny had actually led by 15+ points in each of their first three defeats. So, we're coming off the first time all year that the T'wolves didn't lead their opponent by double digits. Much improvement was expected from this team in 2016-17 and I believe they are a lot better than the overall record. Lay the points. Brooklyn, on the other hand, was projected by most to be one of (if not THE) worst teams in the league. Because of that, they have been able to take advantage of some large spreads and start the season 5-1 ATS. They are 2-4 SU, but three of the losses have been by five points or less. While they've performed better than I projected them to (so far), I still have little regard for this Nets squad and I expect them to get run out of the gym here. A number of key players are out for them, most notably PG Jeremy Lin. Randy Foye and Greivis Vasquez are also battling injuries. Foye is listed as probable but Vasquez is not expected to play tonight. Ricky Rubio's absence has affected Minnesota at the point guard position, but they'll have the best player on the floor Tuesday in the form of Karl-Anthony Towns, who is off B2B 30+ pt games. This is not just the best player in this game, but one of the best young players in the league. Something else that's interesting is the fact that the T'wolves rank in the Top 10 in the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency! The Nets haven't played since Friday and this is their fourth consecutive home game. But that second half of the equation may not be a good things considering their awful 4-16 ATS record when taking the court after playing three in a row here at the Barclays Center. 10* Minnesota |
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11-07-16 | Jazz v. 76ers +7.5 | Top | 109-84 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Yesterday's win by Dallas (I was on 'em!) leaves only two teams winless across the league. They are New Orleans (many injuries) and "old reliable" Philadelphia. There hasn't been a lack of trying w/ these young Sixers, however. Saturday night saw them rally back from a double digit deficit here at home against Cleveland to lose by only a single point. Thus, they easily covered the spread there. Utah appears to be getting a bit too much respect by comparison and this is the second game of a back to back for them. Yesterday, in an early start time, the Jazz beat the Knicks by five (114-109), the return of Gordon Heyward to the lineup. But winning by any kind of margin here will prove difficult. Take the points. Saturday night actually saw the Sixers come all the way back to take the lead on Cleveland before the incomparable LeBron James worked his magic and found an open Channing Frye for the GW three-pointer. Still, even though it was their 42nd consecutive loss in October/November, Philly should hold its head high. Joel Embid scored 22 points and was a perfect 4 for 4 from behind the three-point line. He currently leads the team, averaging 18.5 PPG. Three of the Sixers' losses this year have come by six points or less, two of them by two points or less! Other than the game vs. Atlanta, they've generally been pretty competitive. As for Utah, we're all thinking this is their year to breakthrough into maybe the Top 5 in the Western Conference. It certainly was an encouraging sign to see Hayward score 28 points in his return Sunday afternoon. But the B2B scenario should catch up w/ the Jazz here. Laying points on the road is still fairly a new concept for this team. Note they trailed for the majority of the first three quarters yday, even by double digits in the first half. I don't see them shooting better than 50 percent for a second consecutive game. While Hayward is back, Alec Burks and Boris Diaw remain out, leaving them a bit short-handed and that can come back to bite a team when its playing w/o rest. 10* Philadelphia |
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11-06-16 | Bucks v. Mavs -2 | Top | 75-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
8* Dallas (7:05 ET): The decline of the Mavericks is something we all expected this year, but so far the decline has been more severe than initially thought. They enter Sunday as one of only three winless teams in the league. The other two are New Orleans (very injured) and Philadelphia (always terrible). In fact, the Mavs actually own the worst per game scoring differential in the Western Conference right now (-8.8). But they are favored tonight, at home, against an opponent playing w/o rest. Milwaukee won big on their home floor last night, 117-91 over Sacramento, and might be a bit too overvalued here as a result. I'm calling for Dallas to get its first SU win of the year. Lay the short number. Since scoring 121 pts in in an overtime loss to Indiana (season opener), the Mavs haven't hit 100 points again. After two of their first three losses either came in OT or by one point, it's been B2B double digit losses to Utah and Portland. But I'll make the argument that this is their weakest opponent yet. They have dominated Milwaukee through the years, winning 11 of the past 13 meetings including three straight here at home. Yes, I'm well aware there will be no Dirk Nowitzki tonight (or for the foreseeable future), but I think that the remaining pieces can get the job done. Thus far, the team is shooting just 41.8% from the floor. That number can only go up, right? To my earlier point about the Bucks possibly being overvalued here, note that over the L3 seasons they are just 2-10 against the spread when on a three-game win streak. Going back more than a decade, they're 48-87 ATS in the role. They've beaten New Orleans, Indiana and Sacramento, but needed OT to get by the Pelicans and their only other road game so far resulted in a double digit loss to the Pistons. I don't think playing in the second night of a back to back does them any favors here either. Over the L3 seasons, they are just 15-27 SU when playing w/o rest and that includes the double digit loss to the Pistons I just spoke about. 8* Dallas |
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11-05-16 | Clippers +4.5 v. Spurs | Top | 116-92 | Win | 100 | 21 h 14 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (8:35 ET): Both of these Western Conference powers won last night, on the road. The Clippers went to Memphis and won 99-88 and really things were in line to be a bit more lopsided (Grizzlies outscored them 31-23 in the fourth quarter). LA led by as many as 21 in the contest and what should be real scary for San Antonio here is the fact the Clips were able to win so comfortably despite shooting only 37.6% from the floor. The Spurs, meanwhile, gained a measure of revenge for their only loss of the season Friday night. They beat Utah 100-86 as a short favorite, payback for a 106-91 home loss that took place earlier in the week (Jazz were my *10* Game of the Week in that first meeting). In this battle of heavyweights, I'll take the points. The more things change, the more they stay the same. It's the familiar names on top of the Western Conference standings right now and the Clippers are right in the thick of things w/ a 4-1 SU and ATS record. Their only loss so far came by two points, at home, to fellow one loss team Oklahoma City (were seven-point favorites there). Considering last night and that the loss to OKC came by a score of 89-87, it shouldn't surprise you to learn that it's now been B2B poor shooting efforts from Chris Paul and company. But what should surprise you is the fact this team is #1 in the league in defensive efficiency - by a wide margin. They are giving up just 0.89 points per possession, a remarkable achievement when you consider San Antonio led the league LY at 0.96. Obviously, keeping that pace up will be difficult for Doc Rivers' team, but if they can stay near the top of the league, they'll have no trouble at all finishing at least third in the West this year. We know how Greg Popovich sometimes treats these back to back efforts, so there is always the chance some key Spurs could be rested. They are already w/o their starting backcourt of Danny Green and Tony Parker. Therefore, I highly recommend betting this one now as we've already seen the number start to come down. Note: this play still stands regardless of line movement. Note that the Clips are a strong 29-12 SU in the second game of a back to back the L3 seasons, including an 18-pt win over Phoenix earlier this year. This projects to be a low-scoring game, so taking the points is the way to go. 10* LA Clippers |
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11-04-16 | Hawks v. Wizards -2 | Top | 92-95 | Win | 100 | 20 h 21 m | Show |
10* Washington (7:05 ET): At 0-3 SU and ATS, the Wizards are one of just four teams w/o a SU win so far. They are the ONLY team that has not covered. I look for that to come to an end after tonight when they host the team that beat them in the series opener, that being Atlanta. The Wizards have played the fewest number of games in the league to this point, so they still should be fresh. I readily admit to playing the Wiz in the aforementioned season opener and though they lost by 15, it was a one-point game entering the 4th quarter. They also blew a lead on the road, at Memphis, the following game. Wednesday night in the home opener, one would have hoped that things would turn around (I know I hoped they would!), but instead they lost to Toronto 113-103 - despite shooting 58.3% from the floor! The Hawks had the best point differential in the league (+19.3) through the first week, but suffice to say that was going to last. I played against them Wednesday when they lost outright, at home, to the Lakers. The final score there was 123-116 and the Hawks came in favored by 12. They allowed LA to shoot 53.9% overall and score 72 points after halftime. With the losses of Jeff Teague and Al Horford in the offseason, questions are abound re: this team. Defensively, they had been able to maintain last year's standard. That was before facing LA though. Scoring has not been an issue for Washington, who has been in every game. They just need to learn how to finish and not turn the ball over. It's not like this is a young team; they have a talented backcourt. They were my pick to win the Southeast and while early returns have not been good, I'm not giving up. Look for this to be their first win of the year. 10* Washington |
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11-03-16 | Celtics v. Cavs -9.5 | Top | 122-128 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (8:05 ET): Anyone thinking there might a "championship hangover" with the Cavaliers best think again as they are off to a 4-0 start, outscoring opponents by 11.5 points per game. Certainly, it will be a bit of a somber mood tonight in Cleveland after the Indians dropped Game 7 of the World Series across the plaza last night. But that's nothing that LeBron and company can't rectify. This is a big Eastern Conference matchup on TNT considering much has been made of Boston being the Cavs top contender this season. But as you can see, the oddsmakers still believe there to be quite a gap at the top of the pecking order. I agree and will lay the points here as the Celtics are in the second game of a back to back. The Celtics did win last night, 107-100 at home against Chicago, placing them as one of a number of teams in the East at 3-1 SU, one game behind the Cavs. But Boston is only +3.0 in per game point differential, which shows they've hardly been dominant. In fact, every one of their games have been decided by seven points. Under Brad Stevens, they have been an outstanding bet in the second game of a back to back, going 25-12 ATS (league-best during that time). But this is quite the challenge as they could be w/o both Al Horford and Jae Crowder due to injury. Horford is in the league's concussion protocol after leaving last night's game. Crowder sprained his ankle. The team was fortunate to be picked up by Amir Johnson, whose 23-point effort included four three-pointers. Don't expect a repeat of that here. Cleveland was not at its best defensively (far from it) Tuesday night against Houston, but that can be excused given the Rockets forced the pace of play. The #1 team in offensive efficiency thus far, the Cavs scored 128 points for the game, which was moved up to a 6:05 ET start to accommodate the World Series. Even after allowing 120 pts to the Rockets, the Cavs are still top nine in defensive efficiency in the early going. They held both New York and Toronto to under 39% from the field. With Boston having struggled defensively against some subpar offensive opponents thus far, I expect James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love to all have big games here in what should turn into a somewhat surprising blowout. 8* Cleveland |
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11-02-16 | Rockets v. Knicks -1.5 | Top | 118-99 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
8* New York (7:35 ET): I don't have much affinity for the present construction of this Knicks squad (imagine trying to run the triangle offense in 2016 w/ Derrick Rose no less!), but this is a really favorable spot for them as they catch Houston off a big game in Cleveland. In a game where the start time was moved up to accommodate the World Series, the Rockets came up short, 128-120 against the World Champion Cavaliers. My gosh, this is a bad defensive team. Thus far, they are giving up an alarming 1.13 points per possession, the worst such mark in the league. Consider that the Lakers were last a year ago, allowing 1.09. That gap is far more significant that you might think. It's absolutely ludicrous that the Knicks were attracting so much action before the season to win the NBA Finals, but for one night they'll look good. Of course, the Knicks also played last night and lost. Defense wasn't necessarily their problem; rather they shot only 40.7% in a 102-89 loss. Both road games have resulted in less than desirable performances thus far as they also scored only 88 pts in a loss at Cleveland Opening Night. But the Knicks' one previous home game saw them score 111 pts in a win over Memphis. I'm calling for something along those lines here against the defensively inept Rockets. On the positive side, Rose at least contributed a season-high 19 points last night. For Houston, James Harden had a legendary game (41-15-7) last night in Cleveland, but it still wasn't enough. Harden is highly unlikely to match those kind of numbers again tonight; thus it's pretty tough to make a case for the Rockets winning. It's a heavy burden on Harden right now as starting PG Patrick Beverly remains out. Dating back to January of 2010, these teams have played a total of 13 games. The Knicks have won only once straight up (3-10 ATS), but that one win did come last year. Keep in mind they have fielded some pretty bad teams through the years. Also, all three ATS wins have come in the L5 meetings. I just think that the burden on Harden is too great in this second game of a back to back. Adding to the problem is that Trevor Ariza sustained a head injury last night and is listed as questionable here. 8* New York |
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11-02-16 | Lakers +11.5 v. Hawks | Top | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
8* LA Lakers (7:35 ET): Through the first week of the season, it is Atlanta that owns the league's best per game point differential at +19.3. Don't expect them to keep that up, however, as this certainly does not grade out as one of the league's better teams. (I had them rated eighth in the East coming into the year). So, even hosting the Lakers, I look for that lofty point differential to start coming down. Be aware that the Hawks led the Wizards by only one point entering the fourth quarter in their season opener. It was a similar situation Monday hosting Sacramento as they trailed entering the 4Q of that one, before outscoring the Kings 27-14 over the final 12 minutes. This impressive point differential of theirs is basically owed to one game, that being a 104-72 road rout of lowly Philadelphia Sunday afternoon. I'm taking the points here. This is the Lakers' fourth consecutive road game and second of a back to back. That helps to explain why tonight's line is a bit inflated. Since surprising Houston, 120-114 (as six-point dogs) in the season opener (at home), it's been three straight losses for Los Angeles. But they've covered in two of the three, at Utah and last night at Indiana. Yet, we still find them getting the most points they've gotten in any game on the trip here tonight. I patently disagree with the idea of Atlanta laying more points to an opponent than Oklahoma City, the one team the Lakers have failed to cover against on this trip. Even that was a relatively competitive game for Luke Walton's team as they trailed by only four w/ just under five minutes remaining. Last night, they were more than competitive w/ the Pacers, rallying back from a 16-pt deficit to take the lead for a brief time in the fourth quarter. With Kobe Bryant out of the picture, the Lakers can now actually focus on getting better as a team. Last year was a disgrace that stunted the growth of the young players, who had to sit idly by and watch Kobe jack up an inordinate number of shots. We've already seen a modicum of improvement in the early going under Walton. I simply cannot support Atlanta in this price range. 8* LA Lakers |
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11-02-16 | Raptors v. Wizards +1 | Top | 113-103 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 9 m | Show |
10* Washington (7:05 ET): It's been a relatively "light" schedule to this point for the Raptors and Wizards, both of whom are playoff hopefuls here in 2016. Actually, that moniker largely undersells what Toronto hopes to accomplish this season; they were in the Conference Finals a year ago and hope to at least make it back there. Then again, they have already failed their first test, that being a nationally televised home date vs. Cleveland. The result there was a 94-91 loss (they basically trailed wire to wire). Since then, they have bounced back w/ a three-point win over Denver. This will be the first road game for the Canadian contingent and ironically it's in our Nation's capital, a place the host Wizards have yet to play this season. Washington is 0-2 SU/ATS having dropped road games to Atlanta and Memphis. This is a non-playoff team from last year that I have ascending into the top eight in the East. The Southeast Division is clearly wide open and someone must fill the void left by the disintegration of the Heat. With one of the best backcourts in the league (John Wall and Bradley Beal), I believe the Wiz will be that team. You would have hoped they would at least split the first two games, but oh well. Against Atlanta, it was actually a one-point game entering the 4th quarter before things fell apart. The final score against Memphis was also a bit misleading in that the game went to OT, only after Marc Gasol hit a three-pointer in the final seconds of regulation. That was a brutal situation as Gasol made 4 three-pointers in that game; which is one more than he made all of last season. Last year, Toronto owned Washington head to head as they took all four matchups. Two were decided by three points or less, however. This being the Wizards' home opener and them being well rested is a significant advantage, I think. Over the L3 seasons, Toronto is just 31-46 ATS following a game where they scored 105+ points (They beat Denver 105-102). Opponents will NOT continue to shoot 47% from three-point range against Washington. I point to what Minnesota (a team that blew leads in its first two games) did last night as evidence the Wizards are in line for a strong performance tonight. 10* Washington |
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11-01-16 | Jazz +10.5 v. Spurs | Top | 106-91 | Win | 100 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
10* Utah (8:35 ET): This game sets up rather perfectly from where I sit. The demise of the Spurs has certainly been greatly exaggerated as Gregg Popovich's bunch is off to a 4-0 start - both SU and ATS. Most notably, they crushed Golden State on Opening Night, 129-100, and remember that was a road game! Since then, they've beaten three sub-par foes - Sacramento, New Orleans and Miami - all by comfortable margins. But what this run has done is greatly inflate the line for what projects as a tough, low-scoring matchup w/ the improved Jazz. Considering how the low the total is for this matchup, unless the Spurs turn in some sort of remarkable defensive effort, I don't see how they are able to cover this number. Take the points. Utah is the chic pick in the Western Conference this year. While they did not make the playoffs last year (finished 40-42), they had a per game point differential (+1.2) that was better than four teams that qualified. (Only the heavyweights - GSW, SA, OKC and LAC - were better!). But, so far, this year has been a bit of a disappointment. They stand at only 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS following an embarrassing 88-75 loss to the Clippers on Sunday. Seeing that point total, I shouldn't have to tell you that it was a pretty horrendous shooting night for the team as they connected on only 39.7% of their FG attempts and the four starters other than George Hill combined to score only 20 points. Even facing a top tier foe like San Antonio, improvement is all but guaranteed tonight. The Jazz definitely miss Gordon Hayward (out first 20 games), but there is still plenty of talent on hand here. Hill led the way w/ 18 pts Sunday afternoon and backup PG Dante Exum was also in double figures. The quartet of Boris Diaw, Rudy Gobert, Rodney Hood and Joe Johnson combined to go a miserable 8 of 25 vs. LA and that will be improved upon here. Clearly, all the preseason praise led to an overvaluation in the market, but now the team is back to being properly rated, if not undervalued. They have had their struggles in the last few seasons in San Antonio, but this is the best they've brought here in a while. Again, taking the points in a game projected to be as low scoring as this one is typically a good idea, particularly if its a conference game. 10* Utah |
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10-30-16 | Lakers +8 v. Thunder | Top | 96-113 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
8* LA Lakers (7:05 ET): Though Bryant himself was terrible last year, the expectation was for the post-Kobe era Lakers to really struggle this year. Instead, they opened the campaign w/ a surprise win at home (over Houston) and then covered the spread at Utah Friday night. Here, we find them making the trip to OKC and I feel the value is on them as the dog. OKC is 2-0 SU, but also 0-2 ATS as the numbers vs. both Philadelphia and Phoenix proved to be too much. The Thunder are of course also dealing w/ a major offseason departure, that being Kevin Durant. While Russell Westbrook and a formidable frontcourt will be enough to keep them near the top of the Western Conference, it appears as if that's not enough to cover spreads against the teams perceived to be at the bottom of the league. Take the points. In fact, at home, the Thunder were taken to overtime by Phoenix on Friday night. It took 51 points and a triple double from Russell Westbrook to get the 'W.' It was the first time since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1974-75 that we saw a player acheive a triple-double w/ at least 50 points. Such a performance from Westbrook might be both a "blessing and a curse" for OKC this year. While obviously a talented player that's capable of carrying this team to 50+ wins, Westbrook figures to dominate the ball a bit too much and that likely will lead to a few "bad" performances as well throughout the season. The team could become too reliant and the offense too stagnant. Consider only one other player was in double figures Fri night (Victor Oladipo). The team shot just 41.7% from the floor w/ Westbrook taking 44 of the team's 96 attempts. The Lakers have not beaten the Thunder since March of 2014. That's eight consecutive losses and they are just 2-5-1 ATS in those matchups as well. Last year, they were a double digit dog in all four and covered only once. Despite that, there's no denying that the Lakers look like a better team so far in 2016. While OKC figures to have one player dominate the ball, LA is now "done with that" as Bryant thankfully retired. 8* LA Lakers |
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10-29-16 | Magic +12 v. Cavs | Top | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
8* Orlando (7:35 ET): Cleveland's defense of its first ever NBA Championship has gone well so far as they destroyed the Knicks on Opening Night, then won at Toronto last night (by 3). Though they return home tonight (while much of the city will be focused on the World Series), laying double digits w/o rest is a tough spot, even this early in the season. Orlando is 0-2 SU/ATS and thus going to be a pretty desperate team on Saturday night. The Magic are 0-7 SU/1-6 ATS vs. the Cavaliers the L3 seasons, but this is a steep price tag, the largest we have seen attached to any of those seven matchups. Take the points. Now it certainly deserves to be pointed out the Cleveland is 14-0 the L14 meetings vs. Orlando with the average margin of victory coming by 21 points per game! But despite what the early returns may seem to indicate, this year's edition of the Magic should be a lot better than what we've seen the last few seasons. Yes, they lost at home to Miami and then were blown out at Detroit last night. They allowed 50.5% shooting and lost by 26, so clearly this is a "buy low" situation. With Frank Vogel now serving as HC, I expected this team to be a little more stout defensively. Of course, it would also help if the started to shoot a lttle better. They were only 34.7% from the floor last night and 36.6% for the season so far. Even against a top-flight team like Cleveland, I expect that number to go up. Cleveland has had an issue w/ turnovers as they have 31 of them the first two games. That's been mitigated by their first two opponents shooting only 37.85% from the floor thus far, but that percentage is unsustainable. LeBron James actually played center last night as the team is short-handed w/o Channing Frye (death in the family). Orlando, by comparison, has only turned it over 20 times in two games. This is obviously a huge early season number and note that the Magic are 9-4 ATS the L3 seasons as a road dog of 9.5 to 12 points. They are also 20-16 ATS playing in the second of back to backs. Cleveland is just 17-21 ATS w/o rest. I can't see the Cavs wining by this big a margin. 8* Orlando |
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10-28-16 | Warriors v. Pelicans +10 | Top | 122-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (9:35 ET): The world figures to be on Golden State here as the Warriors were flat out embarrassed on Opening Night, losing 129-100 (at home!) to the Spurs. But, I'm of the belief that the Dubs will consistently be overpriced on a game by game basis this season and thus the value is typically going to come fading them. Here, they are being asked to lay double digits, on the road. I realize that the Pelicans failed to win a game where Anthony Davis went for 50 points, 16 rebounds, 5 assists, 7 steals and 4 blocks! But the team also combined to go a horrific 3 for 19 from three-point range, a number that all but HAS to improve tonight. Look for Davis to carry his team to a cover. Take the boatload of points. While the key core returns, there are many new faces on board. The most notable is obviously Kevin Durant, who did play well in the opener. He made 11 of 18 shots, finishing w/ 27 points. Steph Curry had 26, but was only 3 for 10 from behind the three-point line as it's highly unlikely that LY's other-worldly numbers will be repeated. Klay Thompson and Draymond Green were also in double figures. But no one else on the team scored more than five points and that's where the problem lies. The top four is as strong as any top four on any team in league history, but the dropoff after Curry, Durant, Thompson, Green is severe and you have to wonder just who will be able to contribute consistently. Don't discount the fact that HC Steve Kerr has lost his top assistant each of the last two years. Complacency may also set in w/ a team still disappointed about LY's Finals loss. The Warriors were also awful defensively against San Antonio, giving up 30+ points in EVERY quarter. Lost in LY's incredible run is that this was one of the top FG% defenses in the entire league. I expect them to regress in that department this year. Interesting is that not only is the team 5-4 ATS as a road favorite of 9.5 to 12 pts the L3 seasons, those four ATS losses have also all resulte in outright losses. New Orleans may be shorthanded here, but they have Davis and figure to be highly motivated playing the league's best team. When they hosted Golden State last year (granted very early in the season), they were only 5.5-pt dogs. It took 53 points from Curry for the GSW win. 8* New Orleans |
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10-28-16 | Rockets +2 v. Mavs | Top | 106-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
8* Houston (8:35 ET): The Rockets really let me down Wednesday night, losing their first game to the Lakers. Coming into the year, offense was not thought to be an issue for this team under new HC Mike D'Antoni and it wasn't in LA as they went for 114 points. But defense was another matter as they let dreadful opponent shoot better than 50 percent from the floor en route to scoring 120. Houston also failed to shoot well from three-point range (24.1%), something that I do not anticipate being the case moving forward. Were it not for a -15 pt discrepancy from behind the arc, I just don't see how the Rockets lose that game Wednesday. I'll come back w/ them here. Take the points. Dallas has made the playoffs every year this century save for one time (2012-13). They have not had a losing record since 1999-00 (went 40-42) and you'd have to go back to 97-98 to find the last time they didn't win at least 40 games in a full 82-game season. But this year, I expect the Mavs to take a pretty significant step back. They lost a tough one in the opener, 130-121 at Indiana, a game that went to overtime. They had trailed earlier by as many as 14. Dirk Nowitzki simply isn't getting any younger and the supporting cast around him has crumbled. Had it not been for a Harrison Barnes' three-pointer w/ 2.3 seconds remaining in regulation, then the team would have lost in OT. They let the Pacers shoot 52.6% from three-point range and 50.5% overall for the game. Getting back to Houston's three-point shooting from the first game, they missed 15 of 16 attempts in the second half. That can't happen again. While Dallas has taken 29 of the last 43 head to head matchups in this Southwest Division rivalry, note Houston has won six of the last nine. They split four last year. Given the Mavericks' inability to defend Indiana, I think that they are in for a rough outing here against a Houston team that can absolutely pour it on. Look for the road team to come in and take this front end of a home and home. 8* Houston |
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10-28-16 | Hornets +2 v. Heat | Top | 97-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (8:05 ET): Similar to their season opener vs. Milwaukee, the line has moved in the direction of the Hornets here. Miami may have also won its season opener, 108-96 at Orlando (+3), but I'd caution about expecting much from the Heat in 2016-17. This team is a shell of its former self w/ all of the "Big 3" (LeBron, Wade, Bosh) all departed as have Luol Deng and Joe Johnson. As you might expect, Hassan Whiteside led the way against the Magic w/ 18 points and 14 rebounds. Goran Dragic contributed 16 pts in a game the Heat basically led for the entirety of the second half. While Miami has dominated Charlotte through the years here at home (25-5 SU L30), I would expect that to change this season. This is of course a revenge spot for the Hornets as they were eliminated in seven games LY by Miami in the 1st round of the playoffs. Game 7 was here in Miami and saw the Heat prevail by a score of 106-73, one of the largest margins of victory ever in a Game 7. This year, I anticipate only Charlotte making it back to the playoffs. They get a full season of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who was limited to only seven games in 2015-16. He scored 23 pts and added 14 rebounds in the team's opening night victory over Milwaukee. That was a really dominant performance by the Hornets as they led by as many as 24 in the 107-96 SU win and cover. Roy Hibbert was also solid Wednesday night. Not only did he score 15 pts, but so too did his backup Cody Zeller. Miami probably can't rely on another opponent shooting just 38.6% from the field like Orlando did Wednesday. Nor should they rely on the likes of new starters Dion Waiters and Luke Babbit. Both Josh Richardson and Wayne Ellington remain out. Charlotte was a strong defensive team to begin with under Steve Clifford; with Hibbert in the fold, they are even stronger. Don't forget about Kemba Walker either; he should be the best player on the floor Friday night. These teams finished even in the standings LY, but I thought Charlotte was better as they outscored teams by a full point more per game than did Miami. The Hornets are as good or better than last season while the Heat are significantly worse. 8* Charlotte |
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10-27-16 | Wizards +3.5 v. Hawks | Top | 99-114 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:35 ET): The Southeast Division is wide open this year. Miami finished in first place last year, but we know they are set to take a rather significant step back in 2016-17. That leaves a void that needs to be filled. I believe the Wizards are the team most likely to step up. Though they failed to even make the playoffs LY, they still possess one of the top starting backcourts in this league w/ John Wall and Bradley Beal. Health was an issue for the Wiz early on last season, but once the got their full compliment of players back, it was a strong 18-13 SU finish to the campaign. This was definitely the best team in the East not to make the playoffs (faint praise, I know!) & if they can continue to feast on below .500 competition (23-9 SU LY), then I project a big jump in the standings. Atlanta has undergone a significant makeover in an attempt to get them out of the perpetual mediocrity they've resided in for the past decade. Jeff Teague and Al Horford are both gone. They have been replaced with Dennis Schroeder and Dwight Howard. Schroeder is an "in-house promotion" as he was the backup to Teague at the PG position last year. It will be interesting to watch how he handles the significant increase in minutes that comes w/ being in starting lineup. Howard is an interesting call. He is no longer the dominant force he was in Orlando, but has something to prove after awful tenures in LA and Houston. Personally, I feel Schroeder and Howard are both downgrades from the respective predecessors. The only clear sign of improvement for the Hawks this year is that they probably won't go 0-5 SU in overtime games again. I favor the Wiz here and believe the better team is getting points. New HC Scott Brooks is looking to make an impact in his first game at the helm. These teams played four times last year and all were decided by double digits. Expect a more competitive affair here where the points are worth taking. Also key is regression/progression to the mean on the defensive end. Even w/ Howard, don't look for the Hawks to repeat last year's performance where they ranked #2 in the league in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, I expect Washington to improve upon its 104.6 PPG allowed from LY. 8* Washington |
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10-26-16 | Rockets -6.5 v. Lakers | Top | 114-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
8* Houston (10:35 ET): I spent a majority of last season ripping the Lakers as a young team that stood idly by and watched Kobe Bryant take an inordinate amount of FG attempts. The result was a horrible 17-65 SU finish, second worst in the league, ahead of only the 76ers. But now that it's "Mamba Out," my projection for this team gets no rosier. They still figure to be one of the three worst teams in the league. I saw a recent transaction for the club that included the names "Metta World Peace" and "Yi Jianlin." That should tell you all about where this once proud franchise currently stands. While there's good young pieces, it's going to take a lot of time to gel and LY's Kobe victory lap really stunted a lot of potential growth. Lay the points here. Houston had its own issues last year as they barely made the playoffs despite being one year removed from an appearance in the Western Conference Finals. After leading the league at the betting window in 2014-15 at 59.2% ATS (58-40-1, a record that was better than anyone last year), they dropped all the way down to 43.7% ATS (38-49), which was WORST in the league. How about that? Where I come from, that's called "regression to the mean," but expect the team to finish somewhere in the middle during this campaign. The Rockets have thankfully rid themselves of Dwight Howard, who did not have a good tenure here. I expect a bounce back year from James Harden and w/ Mike D'Antoni now running the show, I would not be shocked if this team led the league in points per game. I think you can certainly expect Houston to score plenty of points tonight as they face the team that ranked 30th (ie last) in defensive efficiency a year ago. The Lakers allowed a dreadful 1.09 points per possession in 2015-16 and in a game that figures to turn into a track meet, that's bad news. Over the L3 seasons, Houston has gone 6-1 SU and ATS vs. the Lakers, including a perfect 4-0 here in LA. Every game last year was decided by at least 17 points w/ three coming by 20+, so yeah this is a bad matchup for the home team. 8* Houston |
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10-26-16 | Kings v. Suns -2.5 | Top | 113-94 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (10:05 ET): The Suns were not a good team last year. Actually, that's putting things quite mildly. They went 23-59 SU, getting outscored by 6.7 points per game. Only Brooklyn, Philadelphia and the Lakers were worse in my own personal power rankings. I was actually a bit surprised to find that the Suns were favored a total of 26 times last season (went 11-15 ATS). But only five of those times came after January 1st and two of them were in the meaningless two final games. Therefore, you might be a bit shocked to see me calling to lay the short number here. Don't be. I feel Sacramento is wildly overrated and getting too much respect from the oddsmakers here. This is a rare time when the favorite isn't getting the majority of bets. The Kings have gone 3-1 - both SU and ATS - each of the L2 seasons against the Suns. After losing the first matchup here in Phoenix LY, they won the next three. Interestingly, Phoenix was favored in both home games last year - by six and 10 points respectively. Some are thinking Sacramento can possibly compete for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference, but I don't buy it. This continues to be a dysfunctional franchise as it's difficult to build around Boogie Cousins, even as talented as he is. PG Darren Collison is suspended for the first eight games (domestic abuse) and starting in his place will be Ty Lawson, who has his own set of issues, one of them being he's not a very good point guard at this stage of the game. That's problematic b/c the team doesn't have another true point guard on the roster! The Kings were just 15-26 SU on the road last season and were a terrible defensive team, giving up a league-worst 109.1 PPG. 1st year HC Dave Joeger has a lot of work to do here. Of course, so too does Suns HC Earl Watson. But I like how his roster is progressing. Will this be a playoff contender in 2016-17? Obviously, not. But can they beat Sacramento at home, laying only a short number? Yes. Keep in mind that this team suffered a ton of injuries last season. Eric Bledsoe and Devin Booker is your starting backcourt w/ Brandon Knight coming off the bench as the sixth man. That's a solid foundation. Up front you have Jared Dudley, Tyson Chandler and some good young talent that will be enough to aid in winning this game "going away." 10* Phoenix |
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10-25-16 | Jazz v. Blazers -5.5 | Top | 104-113 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
10* Portland (10:05 ET): In my initial NBA Power Rankings column, I have these teams basically rated as being even. Based on that, one might surmise that I'd feel the Blazers are a tad bit overvalued here on Opening Night. That assertion would be wrong. Utah is a team that I feel will make a leap into the middle of the playoff pack in 2016-17, but they are the ones a tad bit overvalued coming into this season. Calls for 50+ wins or a Northwest Division Title seem to be a case of putting the "cart before the horse" to me. Portland has always been a very strong home team. They were 32-14 SU here last year and that included a pair of wins over the Jazz. Overall, they took three of four head to head last season. Utah is not exactly healthy to start the season w/ Gordon Hayward definitely MIA and Derrick Favors + Alec Burke also possibly out. Lay the points. It's difficult to fathom now, but Portland was actually projected to win fewer than 30 games last season. That was due to them losing FOUR starters from the previous campaign, one of them being All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge. But credit HC Terry Stotts for doing a tremendous job here. There's no such attrition to suffer through coming into this season as the nucleus of LY's playoff team is all back. Most notable is Damian Lillard, the only player in the league besides LeBron James, Steph Curry and Russell Westbrook in the Top 10 in both points and assists. This is a deep roster too; they added Evan Turner for depth in the offeseason. CJ McCollum, alongside Lillard, makes for one of the better starting backcourts in this league. Folks, this team has been in the second round of the playoffs each of the L2 seasons. They averaged a whopping 108.2 PPG at home last year. Utah was not a good road team LY as their record was only 16-25 SU and averaged only 96.8 points per game. Pretty short-handed, I see them struggling to match Portland on the offensive end. I also don't expect them to be in "mid-season form" when it comes to the defensive end. There are some new pieces as well, such as PG George Hill, Joe Johnson and Boris Diaw, that will require time to gel. As a home favorite of 3.5 to 6.5 points, the Blazers went 12-6 ATS last year. 10* Portland |
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06-19-16 | Cavs +5 v. Warriors | Top | 93-89 | Win | 100 | 33 h 40 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:05 ET): A SU win by Cleveland in Game 7 would re-write a lot of history. First of all, no team has ever won a NBA Finals after falling behind in the series, 3-1. Secondly, the last time Golden State has lost three consecutive games was November of 2013. Then there is the matter that no Cleveland sports team has won major professional championship since 1964. But of course, the beauty of this play is that we do not necessarily need a SU victory. The Cavs are getting points here and considering that not only are these teams dead even in points scored during the Finals (610-610), but that the underdog has actually been the more efficient side throughout the playoffs (+9.4 vs +6.5 pts per 100 possessions), I'm on the dog. Going back to Game 3, Cleveland has really dominated the vast majority of the last four games of this series. They've obviously won in blowout fashion three times. Those three SU wins have all come by at least 14 points and by a combined 59. But in the one loss, which took place at home in Game 4, they led at halftime and were up by eight in the third quarter. Clearly, LeBron James has emerged as the best individual player in the series. Not only does he lead his own team in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks, he leads BOTH teams! In the last two games alone, James has gone for 82 points, 24 rebounds and 18 assists. That's preposterously good. In Game 6, it became clear that James has a point to prove here and that point is that he, not Steph Curry, is the best player in the league. By the way, Cleveland is 8-4 ATS taking points this season. Home teams have of course traditionally enjoyed a tremendous home court advantage in Game 7's. But the Warriors are reeling right now. If Steph Curry and Klay Thompson aren't making threes, they're in real trouble. Injuries have also begun to hit them at the worst possible time. Andrew Bogut is out and Andre Iguodala isn't 100 percent, which is a killer defensively. The team's lone remaining interior presence is Festus Ezeli is a non-factor. Harrison Barnes is a horrific 2 for his last 22 from the field. Remember that James has averaged 34.4 PPG in Game 7's in his career. 10* Cleveland |
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06-13-16 | Cavs +7 v. Warriors | Top | 112-97 | Win | 100 | 31 h 3 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (9:05 ET): Draymond Green is out (suspended) and the line is dropping as a result. That's the story from the media and gambling perspectives for Game 5 of the NBA Finals. But truth be told, I'm not concerned with either narrative as I liked the Cavs in this spot well before the news came down Sunday. Even with Green being suspended for Golden State, I feel we're now back to where we were prior to Game 3, which is when everyone was writing Cleveland off and I decided to take them. My reward there was a 30-pt win. I came back with the similarly undervalued Warriors in Game 4 and while this one may not be quite as easy as either of those, the underdog (facing a "must-win" situation) simply isn't getting enough respect here and I'm taking the points. Don't rule out an outright victory either. |
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06-10-16 | Warriors +2 v. Cavs | Top | 108-97 | Win | 100 | 21 h 37 m | Show |
10* Golden State (9:05 ET): Well, the Warriors are off a loss here (just their 15th all season) and save for Game 4 of the last series, you know what that means. They're a sure thing to bounce back. They are 13-1 SU coming off a SU loss this season (9-4-1 ATS) and outscoring opponents by 12.4 PPG in those contests. Now, as you know, I went "all in" on Cleveland for Game 3. What has changed, you ask? Well, for one, you have the fact the Warriors are off a loss. Two, there is the size of that loss. Remember that Cleveland was off a similar margin of defeat going into that last game. Teams off a SU loss by 30+ pts in the NBA Finals are now 3-0 SU/ATS all-time in the next game. The Warriors are also now underdogs, which is rare. Take the points. As dogs, Golden State is 4-2 SU/ATS this year. That does include a 34-point win in this building back on Martin Luther King Day. Betting these series on a game-by-game basis requires one to "go against the grain" often times. This was certainly the case for Game 3 when everyone was writing off Cleveland. Now, perception has swung the other way. The fact is, historically speaking, NBA teams tend to come back and play very well off a blowout loss (by 20 or more) in the playoffs. I also don't see how Steph Curry and Klay Thompson can continue to play as "poorly" as they have. Curry is off one of his worst games all season, scoring only 19 pts in Game 3 as he got into early foul trouble. The Warriors fell into a massive early hole, as they trailed 33-16 after the first quarter and while they got closer by halftime, the deficit was far too great to overcome, especially on the road. I don't see things getting so out of hand again. As a team, the Warriors shot a pretty woeful 42.1% from the field, including just 9 of 33 on three-point attempts. Those numbers will go up tonight. 10* Golden State |
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06-08-16 | Warriors v. Cavs +1.5 | Top | 90-120 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (9:05 ET): It goes w/o saying that this is a "must-win" for the Cavs. Down 0-2 in the series, they have shown few signs of life, enjoying only a brief lead in both games and losing by the combined biggest margin in the first two games of any Finals in history. But if there was to be any game that they'd win, you have to think it would be this one (similar to Toronto in the Eastern Conference Finals). Now, that doesn't mean that they have to win, but I think they will. Though Game 2 was a disaster, history is actually on Cleveland's side here. There have been only two times in Finals history where a team has lost a game by 30+ points. Both times the team that lost big came back to win and cover the next game. Much more so than Game 1 and even Game 2, people are now completely writing the Cavs off and that has created value. There is simply no way Cleveland doesn't improve from its woeful Game 2 performance. Yes, there is a chance that Kevin Love may not play here, but an interesting issue has been raised whether the team may actually be better without him. Defensively, they certainly would be. There is the matter that NO Cavs player besides LeBron James has made any substantive contribution in this series. As we know, role players tend to play better at home. We saw that with Golden State in the first two games. Considering the hot shooting we saw from Cleveland in the first three rounds, it is almost incomprehensible that the same group could be so bad here. Through two games, they've shot below 37% overall and have missed 32 of 44 three-point attempts. Those numbers should go way up in Game 3. Cleveland has not lost at home in the playoffs, going 7-0 w/ the last five victories all coming by double digits. Despite the shift in scene here, they are actually receiving less action here than what they did for either Game 1 or 2. Again, that has to do w/ what happened Sunday night. Three of Golden State's losses this year have come in games where they were road favorites of three points or less. They actually opened as the 'dog here. While Cleveland could conceivably still go off as the favorite, it's still a shocking lack of respect being shown to a team that's 40-8 SU on this floor and outscoring its opponents by 10 points per game. Also note that Golden State has lost every Game 3 during these playoffs, the last two by double digits (allowed 120 & 133 pts). I look for the Cavs to get back into this series. 10* Cleveland |
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06-05-16 | Cavs +6.5 v. Warriors | Top | 77-110 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:05 ET): There are two ways to look at the Cavaliers' 104-89 loss to the Warriors in Game 1. One would be that they lost a game by double digits despite their opponent's top two scorers combining for just 20 points on 8 of 27 shooting. The more positive outlook is that there is simply no way that Golden State's supporting cast will play as well as it did Thursday night and even though they lost by double digits, Cleveland did come back to go up (albeit only momentarily) in the second half despite really no one outside of LeBron James playing that well. That's the outlook I'm taking and I'm also taking the points. The Cavs had been 7-2 ATS as an underdog this season before failing to cover Game 1. In terms of efficiency, they've actually been better than the Warriors this postseason, outscoring opponents by 11.1 points per 100 possessions while Golden State is just +9.4. Then there is the matter of LeBron James being a perfect 9-0 straight up in his career in Game 2's of a playoff series if his team dropped Game 1. Last year in the Finals, we saw a Cleveland team (w/o either Kyrie Irving or Kevin Love) stun the Warriors on this floor w/ an outright win. This Cleveland team is better than last year and I expect them to show that tonight. I just can't see the Warriors players not named "Thompson" or "Curry" combining to shoot 35 of 60 again from the floor. Note that outside of the Cavs' "Big 3" (James, Irving, Love) and Tristan Thompson, the rest of the team attempted only 13 shots! That's not enough. The Cavs shot only 38.1% for the game and made only seven three-pointers. We have seen how deadly they can be from behind the arc throughout these playoffs and I expect the likes of JR Smith and Channing Frye to play a bigger role tonight. I do not rule out a repeat of last year where the Cavs win Game 2 outright. The Cavs' current six-game losing streak to the Warriors matches the longest James has had vs. any opponent in his career. 10* Cleveland |
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06-02-16 | Cavs v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 89-104 | Win | 100 | 33 h 27 m | Show |
10* Golden State (9:05 ET): It's a rematch of last year's Finals, which were of course won by the Warriors in six games. Much will be made of the fact that the Cavaliers now have both Kyrie Irving (injured in LY's Game 1) and Kevin Love (missed the entire Finals LY) at their disposal. But will that be enough? Tonight in Oakland, I don't think so. The Warriors have actually beaten the Cavs five straight times going back to LY's Finals including a 34-pt trouncing in Cleveland during the regular season. I remain concerned about the Cavs' defense, which gave Toronto (and Atlanta, and Detroit for that matter) far too many open looks from three-point range. Though those opponents could not convert, Golden State will. Lay the points. |
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05-30-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -7 | Top | 88-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
full analysis soon |
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05-28-16 | Warriors +3 v. Thunder | Top | 108-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
10* Golden State (9:05 ET): It hasn't happened often this season, but the Warriors are the underdog for tonight's Game 6 in Oklahoma City. They are 3-1 previously - both straight up and against the spread - when taking points. They are also 6-1 ATS when down in a playoff series. It is quite clear that the Thunder were undervalued coming into this series, but that's all changed now and I just don't see the 73-win Warriors going down here. The outright win is likely, but definitely take the points. It's important to recall that Golden State led big in Game 1 (wound up losing) and then also in Game 5 (still won and just barely held on for cover). Yes, both of those games were in Oakland. The two games so far in this series in OKC were both blowouts that went the Thunder's way, but remember that this team has often times struggled to put away opponents, which cost them in the regular season vs. Golden State. Also, the Thunder are just 27-36 ATS after scoring 105+ points and 15-21 ATS after allowing 105+ points. I have to think Golden State is going to be better offensively here than they were in either Games 3 or 4. Their scoring average in this series is about seven points below what it is for the season, so there's clearly room to grow for what was the league's most efficient offense during the regular season. Defensively, they haven't been as strong as we're used to seeing either and I expect that to change tonight as well. OKC is just 4-3 SU/3-4 ATS when up in the series during these playoffs. I think that like Game 5, it is still a great time to "buy low" on the Warriors and "sell high" on the Thunder. 10* Golden State |
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05-27-16 | Cavs v. Raptors +6.5 | Top | 113-87 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
10* Toronto (8:35 ET): The Cavs and Raptors have met eight times this season and all eight times the home team has won. Thus, if I have an opportunity to get points with a host, I'm obviously going to take it. I had the Raptors here at home in both Games 3 and 4 when they won by a combined 21 points and covered the spread by a collective 32 points. Yes, they were completely destroyed in Gm 5 at Cleveland, losing by 38, but all that's done is create a situation where we are again able to get tremendous value in Toronto. With their season on the line tonight, I expect the Raptors to fight until the very end. Take the points. ' I'm just going to go back to my analysis for both Games 3 and 4 when it comes to Toronto's home court advantage. The Raptors have now won 8 of 10 home games in the playoffs to up their YTD mark here to 40-11 straight up. That's with a scoring differential of 6.5 points per game. It's virtually unheard of for a team that's this good at home taking so many points. Essentially, Toronto is getting the same level of respect that 8-seed Detroit did against Cleveland in Round 1. This despite the fact that the Raptors are now a perfect 4-0 ATS as home dogs of more than 3.5 pts this season, winning all of those games outright! DeMar DeRozan is one player that really seems to "turn it up a notch" here North of the border as he scored 32 points both Games 3 & 4, bringing his YTD scoring average to 24.8 PPG here at the Air Canada Centre. Cleveland is only 14-24-1 ATS as a road favorite this year, including 2-7 when laying between 6.5 and 9 points. Remember that Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love went a combined 4 for 28 from the field the last game here in Toronto. Love, in particular, should decline from his breakout Game 5. It's amazing that the Cavs continue to be favored here in Toronto given that they are not only 0-4 ATS here, but 0-4 straight up (favored every time). As a team, Cleveland shot a blistering 57.1% from the field in Gm 5 including 10 of 21 from three-point range. Those numbers absolutely will come down here. 10* Toronto |
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05-26-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -7 | Top | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
10* Golden State (9:05 ET): Who would have ever thought we'd be in this position? The Warriors, who won a record 73 games during the regular season (never once dropping B2B games) now face an elimination game and must win three straight against the red-hot Thunder just to get to the NBA Finals. For the first time all season, they are off B2B losses as they were blown out in both games at Oklahoma City, losing by a combined 52 points. But now they are back at home, where they outscore opponents by 13 PPG for the season and have lost only three times. They "should" have beaten the Thunder in both Games 1 and 2 here and remember that it was a 27-pt victory in Game 2. Lay the points. All season long, I've made the case that the Warriors are vastly underrated on the defensive end of the floor. In the regular season, they finished tied for fourth in efficiency and they're allowing a similar number of points per 100 possessions, ranking 5th overall and tops among remaining teams. But there is no denying they were shredded by the Thunder each of the last two games, giving up a shocking 251 total points. Look for a return to defensive form tonight, plus I don't see OKC getting to the free throw line w/ such frequency like they have the last two games (66 of 77). Offensively, Golden State shot just 41.3% in the two games at OKC and I would expect that number to obviously go up here. This team led the league in offensive efficiency during the regular season, so coming off its lowest scoring game this postseason, it's poised for massive improvement. At no point this season have the Warriors been held under 100 pts in consecutive games. In fact, they are 6-2 ATS in this situation, averaging a whopping 121.25 points per game. That average seems like it would be more than enough to cover here and what's stunning about this run that the Thunder are on is that they came into the playoffs having lost 10 of the 11 games they were an underdog in the regular season. As a road underdog, they're being outscored by six points per game and are just 4-11 (including playoffs). 10* Golden State |
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05-24-16 | Warriors -1.5 v. Thunder | Top | 94-118 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
10* Golden State (9:05 ET): Needless to say, the Warriors have hit a major speedbump in their pursuit of history. Down 2 games to 1 in this series, they were absolutely embarrassed in Game 3 as they lost by a stunning 28 pt margin. They trailed by 37 entering the fourth quarter in what ended up being "only" their second worst loss of the season (lost 137-105 in Portland on Feb 19). But if there's one thing we know about this team, it's they have an incredible ability to bounce back from a defeat. They haven't lost B2B games at any point this season as off a loss they've gone a perfect 12-0 straight up (8-3-1 ATS), winning by an average margin of 16 points per game! Great opportunity to "buy low" on the defending Champs. Game 2 saw Golden State off a loss and they won by 28 points. This is now the first time they've lost multiple times in the same series since LY's NBA Finals. Note that while they are now 0-3 SU/ATS in Game 3's during this year's postseason, they bounced back nicely in Game 4 victories over Houston and Portland, winning those games by a combined 34 points. Consider they are also 36-3 straight up this season after a game where they failed to cover the spread. Tonight's number is so low, that a SU win w/o covering is highly unlikely. When down in a playoff series, this team is a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS its last five. Draymond Green not being suspended here is a really big deal for the Warriors as well. I see no way he won't improve upon a dreadful Game 3 where he shot 1 of 9 from the floor and finished with only six points. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson are both likely to improve upon their combined 15 of 36 effort from Game 3, which included 5 of 19 from three-point range. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is just 1-3 ATS off its previous four SU wins as a dog this season. I do not see them matching their 50% shooting from Game 3 nor do I envision another 33 of 37 performance from the free throw line forthcoming. Durant and Westbrook alone were a combined 20 of 34 from the floor and 21 of 23 from the FT line. Those percentages won't be duplicated. 10* Golden State |
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05-23-16 | Cavs v. Raptors +6.5 | Top | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
8* Toronto (8:35 ET): As you already know, I had Toronto in Game 3. My rationale for backing them again tonight is essentially the same. Cleveland losing was bound to happen sooner or later as the fact is their defense hasn't been very good throughout the playoffs and offensively they could only regress. To quote my own previous writing, "on the road is where you'd expect to see the decrease in productivity. They (the Cavs) average about 4.8 PPG less on the road than they do at home (that's over the course of the season)." Then there's the value of the home court to the Raptors, something that I believe is being drastically undersold by the linesmakers and public alike. Take the points. The Raptors have now won seven of nine home games in the playoffs to up their YTD mark here to 39-11 straight up. That's with a scoring differential of 6.6 points per game. Again, I'll reference my analysis from the last game and point out that it's virtually unheard of for a team that's this good at home taking so many points. Essentially, Toronto is getting the same level of respect that 8-seed Detroit did against Cleveland in Round 1. This despite the fact that they are now a perfect 3-0 ATS as home dogs of more than 3.5 pts this season, winning all of those games outright! DeMar DeRozan is one player that really seems to "turn it up a notch" here North of the border as he scored 32 points in Game 3, bringing his YTD scoring average to 24.8 PPG here at the Air Canada Centre. Cleveland, meanwhile, was nowhere close to its super hot shooting from the first two games in Game 3. They finished at just 34.1% from the floor and jacked up 41 three-pointers. Again, I'll go back to my analysis from the last game and point out that the Cavs are now just 14-23-1 ATS as a road favorite this year, including 0-3 when laying five or more in the playoffs. But the new concern for Cavaliers bettors is that the team is 0-6 ATS in 2015-16 after they scored 85 pts or less the previous game (they scored 84 in Gm 3)! Obviously, you'd expect both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love (combined 4 for 28!) to play better here, but I'm suspicious that improvement from them alone can account for more than a 20-point swing, which is what they'd need to do to cover. Take the points. 8* Toronto |
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05-22-16 | Warriors -2.5 v. Thunder | Top | 105-133 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
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05-21-16 | Cavs v. Raptors +6.5 | Top | 84-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
10* Toronto (8:35 ET): Most are now simply considering it a formality that Cleveland will advance to a second straight NBA Finals. I admit that it certainly hasn't looked good for Toronto in the last two games. They've lost by a combined 50 points and while this has been the franchise's most successful playoff run ever (1st ever Conference Finals appearance), the truth of the matter is they haven't been very impressive as they've actually been outscored (by about 3 PPG) and are just 3-10 against the spread the last 13 games. Now that all being said, the series now shifts "North of the Border" where I feel the Raptors are going to be far more competitive. This is a big number for them to be getting at home and I see it continuing to go up (so you may want to actually wait a little bit before placing your wager). The last time Toronto played here at home, we saw them destroy Miami in Game 7, 116-89 as 4.5-pt chalk. They've won six of eight home games this postseason to bring their YTD record here to 38-11 straight up w/ a scoring differential of +6.4 points per game. It is almost unheard of that a team with that kind of home record would be getting this many points. Only six times all year have the Raptors been a home dog and they have responded by going 5-1 ATS including a perfect 2-0 when taking more than 3.5. They also won both of those games outright! I'm not saying this will be an outright win for them, but I absolutely think the game will go down to the wire and easily be the most competitive game of the series so far. Cleveland's offensive numbers have to start going down soon. They've shot better than 50% against the Raptors so far in the series, but on the road is where you'd expect to see the decrease in productivity. They average about 4.8 PPG less on the road than they do at home (that's over the course of the season) and they are actually a money-burning 14-22-1 ATS overall as a road favorite. They didn't cover in close out games against either Detroit or Atlanta, which were the only two times so far in the postseason they've had to lay at least five points on the road. Take the points. 10* Toronto |
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05-17-16 | Raptors +10.5 v. Cavs | Top | 84-115 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
10* Toronto (8:35 ET): With the quick turnaround the Raptors are facing between series and the long layoff the Cavaliers have gotten to enjoy, I think that the knee-jerk reaction from most bettors is going to be to back the home team in Game 1. But that line of thinking is a little bit flawed when you consider there's just as good a chance that Cleveland comes out "rusty." Sure they are a perfect 6-0 straight up when playing w/ three or more days rest this year, but this is a massive number to lay as Toronto is basically getting the same amount of respect that the 8-seed Detroit did in Round 1. The Raptors are a strong 17-11 ATS as underdogs this season, so take the points. Toronto should also be very encouraged by the way that PG Kyle Lowry finished the Miami series. After some dreadful shooting in the Indiana series, Lowry came alive against the Heat by scoring 33 or more points three times in the last five games. He scored a series-high 36 in Game 7 Sunday and even more encouraging is the way he played against the Cavs in the regular season. There, he averaged 30 PPG while shooting a somewhat ridiculous 66 percent from the floor. Kyrie Irving is not a good defender at all and figures to struggle to contain Lowry when he's on him in this series. Toronto did beat Cleveland in two of the three regular season meetings. Speaking of defense, lost in the Cavs amazing barrage of three-point shooting this postseason is the fact they haven't been very efficient on the other end of the floor. Sure, you can take a look at the raw numbers and see that only one time have they allowed more than 101 points. But, they are also allowing five more points per 100 possessions than Toronto is during the playoffs. Their defensive efficiency rating of 106.5 is easily the worst among the four remaining teams and assuming there's a decline in the insanely good three-point shooting, this team is going to struggle to win by any kind of significant margin. Note that while they are a perfect 8-0 straight up in the playoffs, three of the wins have been by five points or less and only one (Game 2 vs. Atlanta) was really a blowout. 10* Toronto |
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05-16-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 108-102 | Loss | -108 | 57 h 19 m | Show |
10* Golden State (9:05 ET): The Thunder are flying high into the Western Conference Finals as they surprised a lot of people (myself included) by ousting the Spurs in six games in the last round. It turns out that having two of the best five players on the planet really helps! However, I feel the Thunder's task is significantly more challenging here as they face a Golden State team that they don't matchup nearly as well against. It is true that OKC did have a fourth quarter lead in all three regular season meetings, but they still didn't win any of them and I wouldn't necessarily count on them playing that well tonight in Game 1. Remember that the Thunder were destroyed in Game 1 of the San Antonio series. This is a low number to get on the Warriors at home, so lay the points. |
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05-13-16 | Raptors +4 v. Heat | Top | 91-103 | Loss | -102 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
10* Toronto (8:05 ET): Despite the struggles of both Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan throughout the playoffs, the Raptors now have a chance to clinch a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals. All they have to do is win tonight at Miami. With the number being what it is, obviously, I'm thinking there's a very good chance that they do advance, but let's definitely make sure to take the points anyway. As I said in my Game 5 analysis, Toronto was bound to experience some progression to the mean after covering only one of their previous eight games. They'd actually played much better than that ATS record indicates as you're about to read. In fact, Toronto has now led at the half in six of the last seven games with Game 4 of this series being the lone exception. Even in that game, they enjoyed a nine-point advantage with just a little over six minutes remaining in regulation before spectacularly blowing the cover in OT (Miami was never "in the money" until the final seconds). Game 5 finally saw both Lowry and DeRozan "wake up" as the starting backcourt combined for 59 points and the team never trailed at any point in the contest. As underdogs this season, the Raptors are a strong 17-10 ATS with 14 outright victories. I know that this postseason hasn't always been pretty for them, but they have outscored the Heat over the course of this series. All of the games in this series have been pretty low-scoring, so that's another case for taking the points. Toronto's eight-point win in Game 5 was the largest margin of victory in this series and consider that Miami has yet to win a game in regulation. It was only a matter of time before Lowry and DeRozan got their games going and I feel that Wednesday marked the proverbial "turning of the corner." The Heat, as I've said before, remain far too centered around Dwyane Wade on offense and without their best defender (Hassan Whiteside), are in trouble on that end of the floor as well. Much will be made of Coach Spo's excellent ATS record when facing elimination, but this team is not as good as past editions as there's no LeBron James anymore. 10* Toronto |
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05-11-16 | Blazers v. Warriors -12.5 | Top | 121-125 | Loss | -102 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
10* Golden State (10:35 ET): With the return of Steph Curry, this series is all but over. Tonight, I'll not only call for the Warriors to advance, but to do so in rather emphatic fashion. Losing Game 4 all but sealed the Blazers' fate as this has not been a great road team this season (just 17-29 straight up) and they've been outscored by almost five points per game with the rest of the competition obviously not even close to Golden State's level. Furthermore, Portland is just 12-28 ATS its last 40 games in Oakland, including 1-6 ATS the L3 seasons. Lay the points. Curry set a record for most points ever scored by a player in overtime w/ 17 in Game 4 as the team overcame an early 16-2 hole to not only win, but cover the spread as well. I had the Warriors, so I was certainly happy to see that. Yes, it took a vintage performance from the MVP, but if Golden State is able to still cover in that situation, you have to like their chances here as they return home for Game 5. They are now 44-2 at home this year (won Games 1 and 2 by double digits - w/o Curry) and the average margin of victory is +13.7 points per game. Portland has been a road underdog of this size only one time this year and you guessed it, it was here. They lost that game (on March 11th) by 16 points. Even playing without Curry for the vast majority of the time, Golden State is still winning by an average of 12.4 points per game in the playoffs. They've been the second most efficient offense (1.12 points per possession) and as I've said all season, their defense is very underrated as they are also second in terms of efficiency there during the postseason. Portland actually has a negative scoring differential in the playoffs and after playing their best in the last two games and only coming away w/ a split (Curry didn't play when they won), it's tough to like their chances here given the opponent. 10* Golden State |
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05-11-16 | Heat v. Raptors -4 | Top | 91-99 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
8* Toronto (8:05 ET): The fact that the Raptors have been outscored in the postseason (-1.4 PPG) probably does not bode well for them moving forward, but nevertheless I feel that there have been multiple instances of them "snatching defeat from the jaws of victory" in recent games. One such time was Game 4, their second overtime loss of this series. Ironically, that was the first game of the series where they did NOT have a halftime lead, but they were up by nine with just a little over six minutes to go in regulation. Now only 1-7 ATS their last eight games overall, at least they are back home where they have outscored opponents by roughly six points per game over the course of the year (36-11 straight up). I'll call for them to regain the series lead and cover w/ room to spare. It was pretty brutal to see the Raptors "give away" the cover in overtime Monday night. "Give away" might sound like a strong phrase, but consider the Heat were never "in the money" until the final seconds of OT. They also never led, save for 13 seconds, in the fourth quarter. Despite the win, Miami remains far too Dwayne Wade-centric as the rest of the team shot a pretty dreadful 23 of 56 from the floor. The Heat have also been pretty horrible from three-point range the L2 games (5 of 33), including 1 of 15 in Game 4, and keep in mind those were both home games! On the road, the team's scoring average dips to 96.3 points per game and remember they are w/o Hassan Whiteside, who is a game-changer on the defensive end. When Terrance Ross is your leading scorer with only 14 points on 4 of 10 shooting and you still almost win on the road, I think you should actually feel pretty good about yourself in the next game. That's the situation here for the Raptors, who continue to get next to nothing from their two All-Stars, Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. However, here at home, I think one or both are more apt to turn things around. Meanwhile, Wade was only 7 of 17 for 17 points the last game here in Toronto, a 96-92 Raptors win. Miami has a losing record on the road this season, having been outscored by an average of two points per game. 8* Toronto |
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05-09-16 | Warriors -4.5 v. Blazers | Top | 132-125 | Win | 100 | 22 h 45 m | Show |
10* Golden State (10:35 ET): The Warriors actually finished behind the Spurs in terms of efficiency rating during the regular season (+11.8 to +11.6), but thanks to San Antonio losing last night the defending champs now clearly have the best playoff resume w/ a +15.9 efficiency rating (San Antonio is +12.3). Keep in mind they've basically been w/o Steph Curry for the duration of the postseason, so I'm still not concerned that he likely won't be returning for Game 4 tonight against Portland. This is Golden State off a loss, a role they are 10-0 straight up in this season w/ the average margin of victory coming by 15.8 points per game. Game 3 here in Portland was clearly the Warriors' worst outing of this postseason as they were beaten 120-108 as 2.5-pt chalk. Their only other playoff loss came by a single point in Houston and that was largely a result of a poorly officiated finish. There were a few things that stood out to me from Game 3, one being that Golden State made only 10 free throws on 17 attempts (Portland was 23 of 29). The Blazers also connected on 56.7% of their three-point attempts (17 of 30). Finally, Damian Lillard scored 40 points. I do not anticipate seeing "history repeat itself" in any of those departments tonight. Keep in mind that Portland has actually been outscored in the postseason. The Warriors are more than just Curry. They have Klay Thompson, who has already made 36 three-pointers in eight games. That number actually breaks Curry's record (set last year) for most three-pointers made in a team's first eight games of a postseason run. Don't forget Draymond Green either. So far in this series, he is averaging 25.7 points, 12 rebounds and 8.6 assists per game. That's "LeBron-like" and other than simply "playing out of their minds" like they did on Saturday, I do not believe the Blazers have an adequate answer. Yes, Portland is a strong home team (32-13 SU this season), but not only are the Warriors a perfect 10-0 SU off a loss this year, they have gone 6-3-1 ATS in those games. 10* Golden State |
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05-09-16 | Raptors +5.5 v. Heat | Top | 87-94 | Loss | -101 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
8* Toronto (8:05 ET): After the Raptors let me down in both Games 1 and 2, I turned to the total for Game 3 and came away with a (narrow) win on the Under. And wouldn't you know it; Toronto also pulled off the outright win, 95-91 as 5.5-pt pups. That snapped a six-game ATS slide dating back to Game 4 of the Indiana series, but I still believe that unlike Round 1, there is some value (based off the regular season) on Toronto here. They were a better team than Miami over the course of 82 games and even during the six-game ATS losing streak, there were instances where they probably "should have" covered (like Gm 7 vs. Indiana). All three games in this series have been decided by six points or less (two in overtime), so I'll take the points. The big difference for Toronto in Game 3 clearly was the 33 points from Kyle Lowry, who previously had been struggling badly this postseason. Consider that Lowry scored only 25 pts - combined - in the first two games of the series. He had been shooting just 31 percent over from the field in the playoffs, so hopefully that (Game 3) was a sign of things to come. I think that for a player of his caliber to endure such a shooting slump was a bit odd and he was eventually due to turn things around. I hope the same can now be said for fellow backcourt mate DeMar DeRozan, who is just 15 of 41 from the floor the last two games. By the way, the Raptors are now 17-9 ATS as underdogs this season, including 14 outright wins in the role. The big news for Game 4 is that both teams will be w/o their respective big men - Hassan Whiteside for Miami and Jonas Valanciunas for Toronto - as both were injured and lost for the series in Game 3. I think that the Whiteside injury matters more as don't forget the Heat are also w/o Chris Bosh. His absence affects the team most on the defensive end as he led the league in blocked shots (3.7 per game), but Whiteside has also been a "double-double" guy in the playoffs (12 points, 10.9 rebounds) in the playoffs. Provided the starting backcourt of Lowry and DeRozan can both play a good game, the Raptors have more scoring options left than Miami, who was far too "Dwyane Wade-centric" in Game 3. 8* Toronto |
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05-08-16 | Spurs v. Thunder +1.5 | Top | 97-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): After the Spurs absolutely destroyed the Thunder in Game 1 (won 124-91), the last two games of the series have been nail-biters w/ OKC taking Game 2 in San Antonio (98-97 as 7.5-pt dogs) and then San Antonio regaining the homecourt advantage with a 100-96 win and cover in Game 3. Personally, I’m a perfect 3-0 in this series having cashed the Over in Game 1, OKC outright in Gm 2 and the Under in Game 3. Tonight for Game 4, I’m back on the Thunder, who I believe are a tremendous value here at home in what is basically a “must-win” spot. This team is 34-11 SU at home this year (including playoffs) and only once have they dropped B2B home games all year (right after the All-Star Break). Oklahoma City only shot 41.5% from the floor in Game 3, yet still almost won. Both teams made 10 three-pointers, but the difference is that the Thunder attempted 30 to the Spurs’ 19. I have to imagine that we’ll see improvement here from the OKC offense, which shoots at a 47.5% clip for the season while averaging 109.8 points per game. Despite struggling offensively in two of the three games in this series, the Thunder still are third in the league in efficiency during the postseason (1.11 points per possession). They were #2 in efficiency during the regular season (trailing only Golden State). San Antonio was held to just 20 points inside the paint in Game 3, its lowest total for any playoff game in the last 15 years. They have raised their three-point percentage somewhat dramatically here in the postseason and I anticipate that percentage soon regressing to the mean. Something else to keep in mind is that the Spurs have been held to an average of just 98.5 points the last two games after scorching the Thunder in Game 1. When leading in a playoff series, Greg Popovich’s team is just 9-10 ATS the L3 seasons. Meanwhile, OKC is 5-2 ATS when down in a playoff series including the Game 2 outright win. The Thunder know that if they lose here, the series is basically over, so I anticipate them responding accordingly. 10* Oklahoma City |
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05-08-16 | Cavs -5 v. Hawks | Top | 100-99 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (3:35 ET): It would certainly appear as if this series is “all over but the shouting” at this point considering that not only can Atlanta not seem to beat Cleveland (10 straight losses to them!), but the manner in which Game 3 went down. Trailing by as many as 11 in the second half, the Cavs stormed back by outscoring the Hawks 36-17 in the fourth quarter, including a 22-5 run to end the game, as the three-point barrage continued (now 46 made the L2 games!) w/ Channing Frye of all players joining the fray this time (went 7 for 9 on Friday). Cleveland just seems to match up well vs. Atlanta and I’ll call for this series to end in a sweep w/ the favorite covering Game 4 with “room to spare.” Lay the points. Atlanta is now 7-24 ATS its last 31 second round games. That’s pretty indicative of where this franchise is “at” in this point in time and really been for much of its recent existence. They simply cannot compete with Cleveland as every game in this series has been decided by double digits and down 0-3, I see little reason to expect the Hawks to come out and play hard this afternoon. During the 10-game losing streak to Cleveland, they’ve lost by double digits eight times. Consider that they made 16 three-pointers of their own on Friday and still lost the game by double digits. Cleveland’s offensive efficiency has been breathtaking in the playoffs as they are averaging an amazing 1.18 points per possession. This is of course due to the incredible marksmanship we’ve seen from three-point range so far and while it’s probably unsustainable, Atlanta has yet to demonstrate any ability to stop it. Also, there’s the fact that when a LeBron James team is up three games to none in a series (happened 10 times), never has that series lasted more than five games and eight of them have ended in sweeps. The Hawks are only 9-15 ATS as underdogs this year and with Cleveland outscoring its opponents by 12 points per 100 possessions this postseason, this line is simply too low. 10* Cleveland |
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05-07-16 | Warriors -3 v. Blazers | Top | 108-120 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
8* Golden State (8:35 ET): For the record, it appears as if Steph Curry will not be making his return the court here despite the fact that there has been a three-day break in the series. No matter, the Warriors have already beaten the Blazers twice by double digits. While it’s true that those games did take place in Oakland, the fact is Portland simply is not good enough to compete even at home. Golden State is now 6-1 ATS in the playoffs, outscoring teams by 16.5 points per game all while receiving minimal contributions from Curry. This is a good value considering it will only be the third time all season that Golden State has been asked to lay three points or less on the road. The Warriors defense is vastly underrated. In fact, they lead all team in the playoffs in terms of efficiency, giving up just 92.1 points per 100 possessions. In the regular season, they ranked fourth in the league in defensive efficiency. In this series, Portland’s shooting improved a little bit from Game 1 to Game 2, but they wound up scoring fewer points anyway. Though Blazers fans will attempt to “hang their hat” on the fact that they dealt the Warriors a rare loss here during the regular season, the bottom line is they are just 3-10 ATS the L13 meetings. Also, speaking of efficiency, Portland is being outscored by 4.5 points per 100 possessions in the postseason. Toronto is the only other team remaining in the playoffs that can claim to have a negative efficiency rating. Game 2 saw Portland take a double-digit lead in the first half and they still ended up losing the game by double digits. In fact, they led by 11 entering the fourth quarter. This is an ominous sign. The team is 1-6 ATS in the second round of the playoffs the last two years, which is reminiscent of Atlanta and indicative of where those two particular franchises are at. Remember that the Blazers got to the second round in large part because of the massive amount of injuries suffered by the Clippers. Only 3-8 ATS their last 11 games overall, the Blazers have lost four times in the playoffs by double digits already. They are simply not in the Warriors’ class. 8* Golden State |
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05-06-16 | Cavs v. Hawks +3 | Top | 121-108 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (7:05 ET): The Hawks are coming off an absolutely humiliating loss in Game 2 as they allowed Cleveland to make a NBA-record 25 three-pointers and wound up trailing by more than 40 points at one juncture. The 123-98 final score from Wednesday night doesn't even begin to tell the whole story as the Cavs led 35-20 after the first quarter and Atlanta never got any closer. Nothing is even for certain, but I'm pretty confident that Cleveland will not shoot the ball as well tonight (how could they?) as they were 55.6% from three-point range on 45 attempts. The scene does shift to Atlanta now and I feel the home team is a solid value, taking points, off a blowout loss. Going back to LY's Eastern Conference Finals, the Hawks have now lost to the Cavs nine consecutive times. At some point, this streak has to come to an end. What's really remarkable about Cleveland's offensive performance from the other night is that Atlanta ranked second in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season (trailing only San Antonio). The Cavs are now averaging an insane 1.18 points per possession in the playoffs, a number that I expect to start coming down moving forward. Consider that they are currently averaging six more points per 100 possessions than the Warriors, Thunder and Spurs. Here at home, the Hawks allow just 96.8 points per game. Atlanta's shooting has been pretty bad during the playoffs (41.8%), but I expect that number to start going up. When it comes to defensive efficiency, Cleveland is actually the worst team left in the field as even after Game 2, they are allowing 7.4 more points per 100 possessions than is Atlanta. The Hawks are a good home team (30-14 straight up) and they are outscoring visitors by an average of 6.6 PPG this year. They won all three first round home games, two of them by double digits and in the third led by as many as 19 points. 8* Atlanta |
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05-05-16 | Heat v. Raptors -4.5 | Top | 92-96 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 0 m | Show |
10* Toronto (8:05 ET): Though they finally made it out of the first round (first time since '01!), this has hardly been a great postseason for the Raptors. They've been outscored by 4.5 points per 100 possessions, tying Portland for the worst such mark among teams still playing. For a second time in as many series, they dropped Game 1 at home, this time losing in overtime to the Heat, 102-96, but only after a miraculous Kyle Lowry half-court heave went in at the end of regulation. That's actually a lot better than how they performed in Game 1 of the Indiana series where they lost by 10 points. Of course, what I'm going to point to here is the fact they came back to win Game 2 against the Pacers by double digits. It'll be a case of "deja vu all over again" tonight. Lay the short number. It's pretty amazing that Lowry hit that half-court shot considering how he's shot the ball so far in the postseason. He was just 3 for 13 from the floor in Game 1, including 1 of 6 from three-point range, dropping his overall shooting percentage to a rather abysmal 30.6% in the playoffs. That's the worst postseason shooting percentage by any NBA player w/ at least 50 attempts - ever - according to the Elias Sports Bureau. I feel bad for Lowry because he's simply a much better player than this. Of course, DeMar DeRozan hasn't helped matters by shooting just 33 percent himself. Still, despite their top two scorers struggling so mightily, Toronto has gotten to this point. They led Game 1 at halftime, were up big in Game 7 against Indiana (before blowing the cover) and even led at half in an eventual Game 6 loss to the Pacers. Provided Lowry and DeRozan turn things around, the Raptors should be able to make a series of this. The key for Miami in Game 1 was that they shot 72.7% from three-point range (8 of 11) while Toronto was 23.8% (5 of 21). I am envisioning a little "regression to the mean" here for the Heat, who are 3-7 SU and ATS this season when on a three-game win streak. Meanwhile, there's only one way to go for the Raptors and it's "up" as during this 0-5 ATS streak of theirs, they're averaging only 90.6 PPG, which is well below their season average. Here at home, they remain +5.9 PPG for the year while Miami's YTD scoring average on the road is -2.0 PPG. 10* Toronto |
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05-04-16 | Hawks +7 v. Cavs | Top | 98-123 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (8:05 ET): Though they fell behind by as many as 18 in the second half of Game 1, the Hawks were by no means "blown out" as they actually stormed back to take the lead in the fourth quarter, albeit by only a point. But a win of any kind will do us just fine here as would a close game. The final margin may have been 11 points in Monday's series opener, but that was with Atlanta shooting only 37.9% from the floor, including 11 of 34 from three-point range (missed many wide-open looks). I can't imagine them shooting that poorly again, thus the points look attractive here in Game 2 as Atlanta certainly is "due" to beat Cleveland at least once, aren't they? |
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05-03-16 | Heat v. Raptors -4.5 | Top | 102-96 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
10* Toronto (8:05 ET): All things considered, I'm actually a little bit surprised that the Raptors are the favorites to win this series (-140). Sure, they have the home court edge, but Miami is the more marquee team and certainly had a much "easier" Game 7 win in the first round. So, I'm not surprised that 88% of the bets to win this series are on the Heat. But, that being said, it still took seven games for the Heat to eliminate the Hornets, the same number it took the Raptors to dispatch of the Pacers. Bettors probably still have the proverbial "bad taste" in their mouths from the way Toronto blew the cover in their Game 7 (outscored 20-11 in the 4Q), but in my opinion that has created an opportunity where there's value on them here. Lay the points. Miami had no problems covering the spread in their Game 7 victory over Charlotte as they prevailed 106-73 as 6.5-pt favorites. They led the entire way as clearly the Hornets were "not ready for primetime." I think a lot of people still feel the same way about Toronto, who is in the second round of the playoffs for only the second time in franchise history. But I think it's important to point to the home court advantage here as Miami did lose two of three in Charlotte in the first round and is just 21-23 SU in all road games this year. Toronto, meanwhile, is 35-10 SU at home while outscoring opponents by 6.1 PPG. If the Raptors are to advance to their first Eastern Conference Final, they will certainly need better play from their starting backcourt of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. Fortunately, it is highly unlikely that the duo can play any worse than they did against Indiana. Incredibly, Toronto is just the second team in playoff history to win a series in which its two top scorers were both below 33 percent shooting. Those numbers almost HAVE to go up, don't they? I feel that the Raptors played a lot better in their last two games than what the final scores say as the actually led Indiana (on the road) at halftime in Game 6, then were up by as many as 15 in the second half in Game 7. Note that in their three first round losses, the Heat were held under 90 points. Toronto won three of the four regular season matchups vs. Miami, including both here at home (one by 20 pts!). Miami has been held under 47% shooting in each of the last six matchups. The Raptors are the deeper team here and should have an edge in bench scoring throughout the series. With more people likely to take the Heat, I like the home team here in Game 1. 10* Toronto |
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05-02-16 | Thunder +8 v. Spurs | Top | 98-97 | Win | 100 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (9:35 ET): The Thunder are off a humiliating 124-92 loss in Game 1 (as 6.5-pt underdogs) as they were beaten "from pillar to post." The Spurs scored 43 points in the first quarter and not only never trailed, but got to enjoy a double digit lead from the midway point of the 1Q through the rest of the game. Greg Popovich's team shot a blistering 60.7% overall from the floor, including 9 of 15 (60%) from three-point range, but it's going to be very difficult (if not impossible) for them to match those percentages again tonight. I see OKC coming out very motivated here after suffering what was just their six double digit loss of the season. What's impressive is that they are 4-1 straight up off the previous five. Also, teams coming off a 25+ point loss in the NBA playoffs are 67% ATS since 2005. Take the points. I will readily admit that the Thunder have never fared well here in San Antonio during the postseason. Their last four such visits here have all resulted in double digit losses, those coming by an average of 28 points per game. But this team is too good to get blown out in back to back games. I already mentioned that they are 4-1 straight up this season coming off a double digit loss. For them to be an underdog in the situation is rare (happened only once before) and note that off their ONLY 20+ point loss in the regular season (at Cleveland), the Thunder bounced back with a double digit win their next time out. I won't call for an outright win here, but it will be a close game, judging by OKC's history. I am simply of the opinion that you often need to "buy low" and "sell high" whether it's regular season or the playoffs (this goes for any sport). There's simply no way San Antonio will be as good as they were in Game 1 while there's also no way that Oklahoma City will be as bad. Remember that the Thunder have two of the four best players in the sport on their roster and they were just 11 of 35 from the floor in Gm 1 (0 for 5 from three-point range) while totaling only 30 points. I just can't imagine Kevin Durant or Russell Westbrook struggling that much again and note the Spurs are just 23-24 ATS this season when off a double digit victory. 10* Oklahoma City |
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05-01-16 | Pacers v. Raptors -5.5 | Top | 84-89 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
10* Toronto (8:05 ET): To call tonight's Game 7 vs. Indiana "the most important game" in Raptors history is not hyperbole. This is supposed to be the year that they finally make a playoff run. Who knows what will happen to the franchise, which has won just ONE playoff series in its history (and that was all the way back in 2001!), if it loses here. Fortunately, I don't think fans "North of the border" are going to have to worry about that. Coming off an awful second half in Game 6 at Indiana (remember, I had the Pacers), I expect Toronto to rebound (both figuratively and literally) and advance, covering this spread w/ "room to spare." For Game 6, I cited Indiana having home court advantage as a major reason for taking them laying only a small number. Now, that advantage is gone. We know about the success home teams have had in the past in Game 7's in the NBA playoffs as they've won 80% of the time (97-24) including a 6-1 record the past two years. Now, I know what you're thinking. That one loss was Toronto (to Brooklyn) back in '14. But that was a more veteran Nets squad that they had to deal with there. The Pacers are just 20-24 SU in road games this season. It should also be pointed out that of the now four home games in this series, this will be smallest number Toronto has had to lay. They've outscored opponents by 6.2 PPG this seaosn while going 30-14 straight up. We're getting a good value here. It's no secret as to why the Raptors have struggled to put away the Pacers in the series. There's a direct correlation with how their starting backcourt of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry have performed, which is to say they've both been very subpar so far. The two combined for only 18 pts in Game 6 and are averaging 14.6 fewer points per game in the series compared to the reguar season. But despite losing Game 6 by 18 points and DeRozan/Lowry struggling so much, the Raptors actually led that game at halftime. I find it hard to believe that Toronto won't improve upon their 36.7% shooting from the last game and it bears mentioning that Indiana has won just one of its last seven visits here (Game 1). 10* Toronto |
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05-01-16 | Hornets +6.5 v. Heat | Top | 73-106 | Loss | -111 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (1:05 ET): I fear that the Hornets may have blown their chance at winning the series when they dumped Game 6 at home, losing 97-90 as two-point favorites. However, I've maintained throughout the series that they are the undervalued side here and I'm not deviating from that script here in Game 7. They did win here in Miami, outright, in Game 5 (I had them). The last four games of this series have all been low-scoring, so taking the points naturally seems like the way to go in this situation. I do think too many people are writing this this team off despite the fact that they posted a better net efficiency rating than Miami in the regular season. That's a mistake. So, I will be taking the points here. Charlotte's defense, particularly when it comes to guarding the three-point line, is going to be the key to this game. In the three losses in this series, they've allowed Miami to shoot better than 50 percent from behind the arc and in the first two games of the series, the Heat were almost 58 percent overall from the floor. But in the three games that the Hornets won, they held Miami to 42% or worse overall, including 33.3% from three-point range. Thus, we will probably be able to determine pretty early on how this game is going to go. I'm willing to bank on the Hornets defense coming through here as over the last four games they've held the Heat to just 87.5 PPG. It's pretty tough for a favorite of this size to cover when averaging that few points per game. It was pretty ridiculous to see Dwyane Wade make not one, but two three-pointers in the closing minutes of Game 6. Consider that's two more than he had made previously in ALL of 2016! Though Nic Batum's status remains up in the air, I'm still banking on Kemba Walker being the best player on the floor Sunday. He scored 37 points Friday night and is now averaging 25 PPG for the series. The edge that home teams enjoy in Game 7's is very real, but take note that this is the most points that the Heat have been asked to lay in any game this series. It's a classic overlay, in my opinion. 8* Charlotte |
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04-29-16 | Clippers v. Blazers -10 | Top | 103-106 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
8* Portland (10:35 ET): It's now all over but the shouting for the Clippers, a team still reeling from the loss of both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. Portland has taken the last three games of this series, including Game 5 in Los Angeles, 108-98 as 2.5 pt chalk. While the Clips are 10-3 against the spread this season when seeking revenge for a home loss, now they have to do so w/o their two best players, a near impossible task. Plus, they are 0-4 ATS the L3 seasons as a road underdog of at least 9.5 points, which they are here. The price range is justified given how depleted they are and I look for the Blazers to move on. Lay the points. In taking Portland the last time they were here at home (Game 4), I noted in my analysis just how strong they've been this year playing at the Moda Center. They're now 30-13 straight up with a point differential of almost six points per game. Game 4 is of course where "it all went wrong" for the Clippers (losing both Paul and Griffin) and considering they averaged just 86 PPG in the two contests in Portland, with Paul and Griffin both playing most of the way, I just don't know where the scoring is going to come from tonight. As a team, they've shot below 40 percent the last three games including 25.4 percent from three-point range. Making matters worse for them is that Portland has gotten hot from three-point range the L2 games. Here's a trend for you: the Blazers are 17-3 ATS their last 20 home games with a total in the 195 to 199.5-point range. There should be a tremendous sense of urgency here for the home team as they want to avoid having to go back to LA for Game 7. Portland comes off its highest scoring game of the series, another bad sign for the Clippers. I just can't make any case for the Clips to be competitive in this environment. 8* Portland |
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04-29-16 | Raptors v. Pacers -2 | Top | 83-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
10* Indiana (7:35 ET): This is a "do or die" situation for the Pacers, the very definition of a "must win" as they let one get away Tuesday night in Toronto and as a result are now facing elimination on their home floor. They led most of the way in Game 5, by as many as 15 in the second half as a matter of fact, before things imploded and they ended up losing by three. Indiana did leave Toronto "with the cash" (covered as 7-pt dogs), but that's obviously a small consolation. Yet, it is indicative of the fact that the individual games in this series have been a little mispriced. Twice the Pacers have been able to win outright, as dogs, by double digit margins. Tonight marks just the second time they've been favored in a game (lost the first) and given the circumstances, that's warranted. Lay the small number. Paul George has already come out and stated that he's willing to "play all 48" (minutes) tonight, if need be. The fact that there have been two off days between games would seem to allow George to do that and playing w/ two days rest exactly seems to be the Pacers "sweet spot" as they are 12-4 against the spread in that role this season. Remember that this team has really "cleaned up" against conference foes this season, at least at the betting window where they are 35-22 ATS. They might be just 4-5 ATS vs. Toronto, but this series has been relatively even to this point with the Raptors outscoring the Pacers by less than one point per game. Thus, it appears as if the value of home court advantage is being a little "undersold" in this one as Indiana is 27-16 SU on its own floor this season, outscoring teams by 3.9 PPG. There's a lot of pressure in this series on Toronto, who is trying to advance to the second round for just the second time in franchise history. You'd think that would breed a sense of urgency, but note the last game here in Indiana saw the Raptors come in w/ a 2-1 series lead and basically "mail in" the the game. Though DeMar DeRozan broke out a bit in Game 5, the Raptors starting backcourt of he and Kyle Lowry has really struggled so far in this series. As I said at the outset of the series, the Pacers are the far better defensive team here and they've held Toronto under 42 percent shooting in four of the five games. The Raptors' three-point shooting has been nothing short of atrocious (33 of 125). They are also just 1-3 ATS all-time when up in a playoff series. 10* Indiana |
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04-28-16 | Hawks -2 v. Celtics | Top | 104-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (8:05 ET): As you might be able to ascertain from this line, the oddsmakers are basically begging you to take Boston, who is off a horrible 110-83 loss in Game 5 and now faces a situation where they are playing to keep their season alive. I will not take the bait. Atlanta has been the better team for the vast majority of this series, only to twice blow leads of 16 points or greater and end up not covering. The first time was Game 1, which they still won, 102-101. The second was Game 4, which ended up being an overtime loss. The Celtics really miss their second-leading scorer, Avery Bradley in this series (lost for the season in Gm 1) and it shows. I'll lay the points on the road. If losing Bradley wasn't bad enough, leading scorer Isaiah Thomas left Game 5 with an ankle injury. He's currently listed as probable to play, but if not at 100 percent, then I just don't know where the Celtics' scoring comes from. Remember that Atlanta ranked second in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. The Hawks seemed to "figure out" how to defend Thomas by double and even triple teaming him Tuesday and that resulted in Boston's top scorer shooting just 3 of 12 from the field before his early exit. Keep in mind that as a team, the Celtics are averaging just 94.2 PPG in the series. While it might seem tempting to take them as a home dog, note their record in that role this season is only 2-4 straight up and 2-3-1 against the spread. As good as Atlanta's been defensively in this series, it was the offense that keyed them to victory on Tuesday by scoring an incredible 70 points over an 18-minute span! While some teams have a tendency to "phone one in" when up a game in a series, I do not believe that will be the case here with the Hawks - at all - as wrapping up this series ASAP should be a priority given that Cleveland is going to be well rested for Round 2. Those anticipating a letdown off a big win best take note of some Hawks' history as the team is actually an incredible 50-29 ATS the L3 seasons when coming off a double digit win. This series is over after tonight. 8* Atlanta |
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04-27-16 | Hornets +6 v. Heat | Top | 90-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (8:05 ET): My initial assertion, that the Hornets were the better team in the regular season compared to the Heat, didn't look so smart after the first two games of this series. Charlotte, who has never found any kind of playoff success, got rolled in Games 1 and 2 here in Miami, losing by a combined 44 points. But things took quite the dramatic turn once the scene shifted to the Queen City as the Hornets returned the favor with a pair of wins where they were largely in control for most of the two games. Winning Game 4 by only a four-point margin might seem to suggest otherwise, but take note the Hornets led by as many as 18 in the second half and never trailed after the midway point of the second quarter. Back in Miami, they are a solid value. Take the points. Offensively, it's been like night and day for the Heat when it comes to home and away. The first two games of the series saw them average 119 PPG on better than 57% overall shooting, while the two games in Charlotte saw them average only 82.5 PPG on 35.5% shooting. I realize we're now back in South Beach (where the L10 Hornets-Heat matchups have all gone Over the total!), but I don't envision an automatic "return to form" here for Miami, let alone anything resembling what we saw in the first two games of the series. The Heat have simply looked like the older team the L2 games and I don't mean that as a compliment. With the Game 4 win and cover, Charlotte improved to 6-2 straight up and against the spread this season after allowing 85 pts or less in its previous game. Three-point shooting was huge for the Hornets during the regular season, but so far in this series they're below 24 percent. I do expect that number to start to rise. What has offset the three-point shooting woes is an ability to get to the FT line as not only is Charlotte +28 in attempts compared to Miami in the series, but they're also making their free throws (82.8%). Furthermore, there is a chance that Nick Batum - the Hornets' best two-way player, returns tonight (gametime decision). Even without him, the Hornets bench has been able to outscore their Heat counterparts by an average of 15.7 points the L3 games. Again, Charlotte had the better efficiency rating of these two teams during the regular season. 10* Charlotte |
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04-26-16 | Pacers v. Raptors -7 | Top | 99-102 | Loss | -103 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
10* Toronto (6:05 ET): Note that w/ no Western Conference games on tap, it's a bit of an early start time North of the border this evening. The Raptors and Pacers are tied at two games apiece in this series after Indiana won Gm 4 in convincing fashion, 100-83 as 1-pt dogs. They also took Gm 1 here in Toronto, 100-90 as seven-point pups and while I was on the dog there, it's going to be a different story here. Though the series is now even, none of the four individual games have been close. All games have been decided by double digits, so laying points shouldn't seem like much of an issue, plus there's the matter that Toronto is now 26-12 ATS the L38 meetings w/ Indiana here at home including 6-1 ATS L7. They are 12-3 ATS head to head w/ the Pacers overall the L3 seasons. Indiana is just 9-13 ATS coming off a SU win as a dog this season & 3-5 ATS after allowing 85 pts or less in its last game. Toronto shot just 36.5% from the floor in Game 4, a number that you have to figure will improve tonight at home. Now neither team, with the exception of the Pacers on Sunday, has shot better than 44% in any individual game of this series. But Toronto could easily help itself by NOT missing nine free throws like they did in Game 4 and the starting backcourt of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan simply must be better as the duo shot a combined 8 of 27 from the floor, including 0 for 7 from three-point range. I think they will be better tonight. Also, the Raptors have enjoyed an advantage in rebounding in all four games and Jonas Valanciunas should have more than the six he pulled down Sunday. Toronto is 33-10 SU at home this season with a point differential of +6.2 per game. Indiana, who sports a losing (20-23) record, is -0.7 PPG on the road. So, while my personal power rankings might suggest that the Raptors are a tad bit overvalued in this spot, perhaps they are underrating the value of home court advantage. Credit Pacers HC Frank Vogel for making a change to his starting lineup for Game 4 (Myles Turner in for Lavoy Allen) and it working. But the Raptors will be ready for that tonight and I expect their best players to play better. 10* Toronto |
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04-25-16 | Clippers v. Blazers +3 | Top | 84-98 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
10* Portland (10:35 ET): Trailing 0-2 in the series, the Blazers "had to have" Game 3 here at home and they came through with a 96-88 win and cover, snapping a five-game ATS losing streak in the process. Of course, that victory will mean little in the "grand scheme of things" if they were to lose tonight in Game 4. I think it's curious that the Clippers come in favored by a slightly greater margin here compared to Saturday and while they may have an outstanding 20-5 ATS record as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points (7-1 this season), that trend will come to a halt here at the Moda Center where the home team is a very strong 29-13 straight up this season w/ a point differential of +5.8 PPG. Also, Portland is 26-10 ATS off a SU win as an underdog. Take the points. After losing the first two games of the series by 20 and 21 points respectively, what changed for the Blazers in their Game 3 victory? Well, for starters, the Clippers couldn't shoot to save their lives. Just 40.9% overall from the field, Doc Rivers team missed 15 of its 18 three-point attempts, not to mention 10 of 23 free throws. This line is simply moving the wrong way as the majority of teams that the Clippers have covered against as a road favorite in this range are bad teams that missed the playoffs altogether. As mentioned above, Portland has been a great home team throughout the year, particularly of late. They've won 10 of their last 11 home games with that one loss coming by only one point. The notion that the Clippers will bounce back here because of how the first two games played out is quite frankly misguided. Another key to Saturday's victory was the Blazers' outstanding backcourt of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, who combined to score 59 points on 50% shooting. In the first two games, they had combined for just 63 points on less than 35% shooting. So, again, you can see the effect home court has here. Portland averages 107.8 PPG at home for the season and they should still come out as the more desperate team here. 10* Portland |
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04-24-16 | Hawks v. Celtics -1.5 | Top | 95-104 | Win | 100 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
10* Boston (6:05 ET): It’s always worth taking note of public perception over the course of any playoff series and in the case of this one, there’s been a rather seismic shift. For the first two games, which took place in Atlanta, the public liked the dog (Boston) and came away with what some would say was a “fortunate” split as Gm 1 saw the Celtics rally back from a 19-pt deficit to “steal” the cover (but not win the game). Game 3 saw public opinion rather divided, but in what was an obvious “must win” for Boston, they came through with a 111-103 victory as three-point chalk. Now, for Game 4, I’m a little surprised to find that the majority of bettors are taking the Hawks. What I surmise is that those bettors are remembering how the first two games went and that the Celtics are without Avery Bradley. But, at home, Boston remains a strong value laying this small of a number. There were two significant changes that took place for Boston in Game 3 compared to the first two games of the series. One is that they got to the free throw line more, a lot more. In fact, their 33 FT attempts in Game 3 were more than Games 1 & 2 combined (31). This is typical of when a series changes venues. Note, as the road team, Atlanta got to the line only 21 times in Game 3 after a total of 51 attempts in the first two games at home. The other major change was Isaiah Thomas, who went for 42 points on Friday night. I’m not sure that kind of individual performance can be counted upon again, but note the team does average 106.2 PPG here at home, for the season, and Atlanta’s defense significantly worsens when they are the road team. By the way, Boston did lead Game 3 by as many as 20 points, so the final score is a bit misleading. It appears as if three-point shooting, as it so often is in today’s NBA, might be the key to winning games in this series. The Hawks did win Game 1 despite a dreadful 5 of 27 night from behind the arc, but came back in Game 2 to make 11 of 29 attempts. They regressed back to 25% (9 of 36) in Game 3 and I wouldn’t look for that number to go up very much this evening as Boston is holding teams to just 31.1% on 3-pt attempts at home this season. Meanwhile, after going a miserable 16 of 63 from 3-pt range themselves in the first two games, the Celtics were up to 11 of 32 in Game 3. The fact that Thomas is not suspended today (despite blatantly hitting Atlanta’s Dennis Schroeder) looms large in handicapping this game. 10* Boston |
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04-24-16 | Warriors -8.5 v. Rockets | Top | 121-94 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
8* Golden State (3:30 ET): Houston pulled the upset in Game 3, winning 97-96 as 3.5-pt home dogs. The Warriors were of course without Steph Curry (he’ll be back on the floor today), but the game was not without controversy as afterwards the league basically admitted that the officials did an atrocious job down the stretch. There were five blown calls in the final two minutes alone, the most noteworthy being the Rockets’ James Harden getting away with a push off on Andre Iguodala on what turned out to be the game winning shot. I don’t see Houston getting that kind of “help” here in Game 4 and now they have to go back to dealing with Curry. The better team will reassert itself and take control of the series with a blowout victory here. Lay the points. The first thing to take note of here is that the Warriors have not dropped back to back games all season long. Off their nine regular season losses, the team had a scoring differential of +14.5 points per game. They are the only team in league history never to lose B2B games in a regular season. The second thing to take note of is, obviously, the return of Curry. Other than Marreese Speights of all people, Golden State has really struggled from three-point range the last two games. Factoring out Speights, the team is just 25 percent from behind the arc. Curry, if you recall, was an incredible 5 of 7 from distance back in Game 1. He changes the entire dynamic for the Houston defense, which of course isn’t very good to begin with. Off a SU win as an underdog, the Rockets are just 4-9 against the spread. This is a high number attached to this game, but remember that Houston is the worst defensive team left in the field (allow 106.3 PPG). It’s a little surprising to see that the Warriors have shot only 43% in two of the three games in this series (Game 2 being the exception), but then again Curry’s absence led them to the dreadful 6 of 25 performance from three-point range that was touched on earlier in this analysis. That percentage (24.0) was the team’s worst in its last 24 games, but the game now changes w/ Curry, a 45.4% shooter from 3-pt range, returning. I have zero problem with this pointspread as you have to remember the Rockets are team that has been outscored over the course of the regular season while GSW was +11.6 in points per 100 possessions during the regular season. 8* Golden State |
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04-23-16 | Raptors -1.5 v. Pacers | Top | 83-100 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
10* Toronto (3:05 ET): The demise of the Raptors appears to have been greatly exaggerated. Since dropping Game 1 of this series, at home, they've stormed back by posting B2B double-digit victories where they've held the Pacers to an average of just 86 points per game. Going back two full seasons, Toronto is now 12-2 ATS in 14 head to head matchups with Indiana and that includes a 6-1 ATS record on the road. After leading wire to wire in Game 2, the Raps essentially did the same thing in Game 3, so they've really taken control of things and keep in mind that's with their top two scorers, Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan - both being subpar and inefficient. Indiana simply doesn't seem to have an answer for Toronto's better depth or interior dominance. I'll lay the small number here. Toronto's starting backcourt (DeRozan & Lowry) shot a combined 15 of 63 from the floor in the first two games, including an odious 1 of 17 from three-point range. While still not up to par in Game 3, both players were a lot better as they each contributed 21 points. But the key for the Raptors in this series has clearly been Jonas Valanciunas, who is dominating the boards w/ an average of 16 rebounds per game. Valanciunas is the primary reason that Toronto has a +10.7 rebound (per game) edge in the series as well as outscoring Indiana by 13.3 PPG in the paint. Additionally, defensive specialist DeMarre Carroll has shown why the team signed him away from Atlanta. In the two games that he's started (the last two), the Raptors defense has been significantly better. Indiana shot just 38.2% in Game 3 and scored a season-low 36 first half points. While Toronto has been fortunate to have its supporting cast "step up" in the series, the same cannot be said for Indiana. Paul George has seen his scoring decline with each passing game and Monta Ellis had only seven points on Thursday. No one else has really been able to contribute offensively and with the Pacers getting dominated on the glass, I'm not sure who would be able to even fill that void. Those anticipating an Indiana bounce back will be sad to hear that the team is 4-12 ATS this season when seeking revenge for a home loss. 10* Toronto |
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04-22-16 | Spurs -11.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 96-87 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (9:35 ET): While traditionally a home team down 0-2 in the series and coming off a blowout loss might offer something in the way of value (especially taking this many points), the fact is little case can be made at this point for Memphis being even remotely competitive with San Antonio. Yes, Houston did just beat Golden State last night. But, as you know, the Warriors didn't have Steph Curry. Here, the Grizzlies are the team that's dealing with injuries - a ton of them for that matter - as they came into the playoffs down two starters (Mike Conley and Marc Gasol) and with little chance. The Spurs have held them to an average of just 71 points through the first two games and like I said, there's just no case to be made for Memphis to even win a game in this series. Lay the points. What's incredible about the Grizzlies, a playoff team mind you, is that they have now dropped 12 of their last 13 games! The last four losses have all been by margins greater than 20 points! Seven of the 12 losses have been by double digits. They've now played the Spurs six times this season and only once have they stayed within single digits. That was actually in San Antonio. I talked about this during the regular season, but Memphis was quite fortunate to finish with a winning record as no team had a greater disparity between actual and expected wins (using YTD point differential). For the season, they are being outscored by almost three points per game, which may not sound like a lot, but it's practically unheard of for a postseason participant. Honestly, the Grizz probably should have won only 34 games. San Antonio was of course #1 in defensive efficiency during the regular season, turning in the best mark in that department in over a decade. Facing a starting five of Zach Randolph, Matt Barnes, Chris Andersen, Jordan Farmer and Vince Carter almost seems unfair. The Spurs are 14-8 ATS this season after allowing 85 pts or less in their last game and have won twice here in Memphis this season by an average of 17 PPG. Remember that the Spurs finished the reg season with a per game point differential of +10.6. 8* San Antonio |
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04-21-16 | Thunder v. Mavs +9 | Top | 131-102 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
10* Dallas (7:05 ET): After being humiliated in Game 1 of this best of seven series (lost by 38), the Mavs responded by delivering an even more shocking result in Game 2, that being an outright win as 14-pt underdogs. Now the series shifts to Dallas and clearly the oddsmakers are anticipating a bounce back performance from the Thunder as they've hung a number here that is "out of step" with what was already a pretty large spread for the first two games. Using the opening line from Games 1 and 2 (OKC -12.5) as a barometer, the Mavs should probably be in the neighborhood of a 6.5-pt dog coming into Game 3. My own personal power rankings suggest that the line should be even lower than that. So, I'm going to take the points here. Kevin Durant was a disaster in Game 2 for the Thunder as he missed 26 of 33 field goal attempts, the worst shooting performance by any player in the playoffs since the immortal Jerry Stackhouse missed one more all the way back in 2001. Obviously, you'd anticipate Durant shooting better here, but to what degree? Wesley Matthews seemed to do the best job guarding him, holding him to 1 for 11 shooting. Beyond Durant and Russell Westbrook, the rest of the Thunder roster is not to be feared, save for maybe Enes Kanter. This was not a good team at the betting window all season long (36-45-3 ATS) and those anticipating a bounce back will be disappointed to learn that OKC is just 5-11 ATS when coming off a SU loss as a favorite. Offensively, Monday marked just the fourth time all season that the Thunder were held below 85 points. Save for Game 1, Dallas has been playing great defense down the stretch, holding 10 of its last 11 opponents under 100 points (Game 1 the exception). Six of those games have seen them hold the opponent under 90 points! Oklahoma City is just 1-2 ATS coming off those previous three times they were held under 85 pts and they are also just 1-5 ATS after allowing 85 pts or less the last game. I realize that Dallas is dealing with numerous injuries right now (including Dirk Nowitzki, who will play), but Rick Carlisle is the better coach in this series and will get his team to keep this one closer than expected. 10* Dallas |
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04-20-16 | Blazers +8.5 v. Clippers | Top | 81-102 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
10* Portland (10:35 ET): The zig zag theory has been quite profitable thus far in the playoffs, taking into account the teams that failed to cover the spread in the respective Game 1's. Of the five series that have played two games, four of the teams that failed to cover Game 1 came back and covered Game 2. The only exception is injury-riddled Memphis, who has to deal with San Antonio. The first round of the Western Conference looked to be a breeze for all the higher seeds, but note we've already seen underdogs Dallas and Houston fare far better the second time around compared to the first and the Mavericks even took Game 2 of their series outright. Here, we find Portland off a 20-pt loss to the Clippers in Game 1, but I look for them to bounce back with a much better performance tonight. Take the points. I thought HC Terry Stotts did a marvelous job getting his team to the playoffs considering that the Blazers lost four of five starters from last year's squad, one of them being All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge. Portland was actually projected to finish with one of the worst records in the entire league at the start of the season. But they wound up going Over that projection by nearly 20 games and here they are. I don't see them getting held below 40% from the floor for a second consecutive game nor do I see shooting guard CJ McCollum being held to only single digits again. I say that because he hasn't been held below 10 pts in consecutive games since last season. Other than Damian Lillard, Portland's other four starters combined to shoot 10 of 36 from the floor (worst shooting game since 3.14). There will undoubtedly be improvement tonight. The Clippers, Blake Griffin in particular, looked impressive in Game 1. But they are just 15-13 straight up following a double digit win this year and 12-16 ATS. Curiously, they are also 3-9 ATS when playing with exactly two days rest. Just like Portland's shooting numbers are due to improve, the Clippers aren't as likely to be as hot as they were in Game 1 (53.8%). They are 16-24 ATS following an ATS win this season. 10* Portland |
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04-20-16 | Pistons +10.5 v. Cavs | Top | 90-107 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
8* Detroit (8:05 ET): The Pistons certainly played well enough to win Game 1. In fact, given that they shot better than 50% from three-point range and let outright much of the way, they probably feel as if they let one "slip away" Sunday in Cleveland. While a team that didn't shoot particularly well during the regular season is likely to experience somewhat of a decline in Game 2 (at least from behind the arc), what about the Cavs reliance on their "Big 3" (LeBron, Irving and Love), who accounted for a ridiculous 81 of the team's 106 points? I'm not sure that's sustainable either and despite Tyronn Lue making a bit of a savvy decision late (went small), I still trust Stan Van Gundy more to make the necessary adjustments. Take the points. Detroit did beat Cleveland three times during the regular season. One of those wins came in the meaningless final game (both teams rested starters), but still that's two of three that they still won straight up. Overall, they are 4-1 ATS against Cleveland this year and have not lost by a margin greater than eight points. So, a double digit spread doesn't seem justified in this situation, particularly given how the Cavs never enjoyed a lead greater than eight points in Game 1. Cleveland is a money-burning 31-42 ATS when favored this season, indicating that they've definitely been overvauled throughout the campaign. The assumption that they are going to "walk through" the rest of the East has worked against them as they are just 22-31 ATS in conference games. Detroit doesn't lose by double digits often. In fact, it's happened only twice in their last 16 games. They are one of just four Eastern Conference teams to win straight up here in Cleveland this season and led by seven in the fourth quarter on Sunday. I anticipated this line opening much lower than it did. The Pistons, arguably, have better depth than Cleveland w/ five players averaging at least 14 points per game. They also have the better coach. The Cavaliers defensive numbers have regressed ever since Lue took over as the head coach. As long as the Pistons don't turn the ball over as much as they did in Game 1, they should be able to withstand the likely decline in three-point percentage and cover the spread w/ room to spare. 8* Detroit |
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04-17-16 | Hornets +4.5 v. Heat | Top | 91-123 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 12 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (5:35 ET): Similar to the Toronto-Indiana series, this is one where I feel that the lower seed is being undervalued and in this instance, dramatically so. Miami may have finished third in the East, which is in line w/ where they are in terms of the oddsmakers' pecking order, but they actually ranked sixth in both point differential (+1.6) and efficiency (+2.6) in the East during the regular season. That's behind a very underrated Hornets squad (+2.7, +3.3) that also happened to post the best record in the East after the All-Star Break (21-8 straight up). Thus, anything above the token three points for home court advantage is a value on Charlotte, who I give a very good shot at not only pulling the outright upset here, but in the series as well. Take the points in Game 1. Checking in on the personnel department, the Heat will be w/o Chris Bosh for the rest of the season, no matter how long that lasts. I realize that a number of other players - notably Joe Johnson and Hassan Whiteside - stepped up down the stretch, but not having Bosh is still a big deal. Coach Spo has been relying on a pair of rookies - Justise Winslow & Josh Richardson - to play 20+ minutes off the bench. Relying on rookies in the playoffs is not a winning formula. Meanwhile, I realize that Charlotte is fairly inexperienced themselves (franchise has never even won ONE playoff game in its history), but they received some good news on Friday when it became apparent that Nic Batum (team's best two-way player) would be able to play normal minutes after missing three of the final six regular season games. Looking back to the four regular season matchups between these two, it was a 2-2 split w/ each team winning once on the other's floor. The most recent meeting saw Charlotte come here and prevail 109-106 w/ an identical spread. What's impressive about that win is that Miami shot 53.3 percent from the floor and had a 15-pt lead in the first half. I don't see that happening again. To come full circle, I'll reference Toronto-Indiana again and point out that like that series w/ Paul George, this one sees the underdog team having the best player on the floor (Kemba Walker). 10* Charlotte |
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04-16-16 | Mavs +12 v. Thunder | Top | 70-108 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 18 m | Show |
8* Dallas (9:35 ET): The first round in the Western Conference seems like a colossal waste of time as each of the top four seeds are very likely to advance with little difficulty. However, that doesn't mean that the underdogs in these respective series won't provide some value and that's the case here w/ Dallas in Game 1 at Oklahoma City. The Thunder posted the worst ATS record of any playoff team during the regular season - second worst overall (ahead of only Chicago) - at 35-44-3. That includes a 31-38 mark when favored. OKC did take all four regular season matchups from the Mavs, but two of those were decided by just three points. I just don't agree with this being a double digit spread. Take the points. Rick Carlisle is an underrated piece of this series. You have to give the Dallas HC a big edge over his counterpart, OKC's Billy Donovan, who has never coached an NBA playoff game before. Two years ago, Carlisle was able to get his team to take a much more talented San Antonio squad (that won the NBA Finals) to seven games in the first round. Carlisle definitely earned his paycheck down the stretch as he got his injury-riddled team to start playing defense and sure enough the Mavs come into the playoffs having held nine straight opponents under 100 points. I expect them to continue to slow the pace down in this series, thereby limiting the total number of possessions, as any smart underdog should. Dallas is 5-2 ATS here in April and both losses came by single digits to two of the top four teams in the West, the Clippers and Spurs. So they definitely seem to be in "good form" here. They've also won four of their last five road games. It is quite rare to find this team taking this many points. Since the start of March, they've been double digit dogs just once and they covered (at Golden State) easily at +16.5 (lost by only eight). A lot of the Thunder's recent double digit spreads were a byproduct of teams resting players, but it bears mentioning that last month saw them fail to cover at Philadelphia (-15.5) and they also lost outright here at home vs. Minnesota (-12). There is no way Dallas should be in the same price range as Minnesota. 8* Dallas |
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04-16-16 | Celtics v. Hawks -5 | Top | 101-102 | Loss | -108 | 36 h 44 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:05 ET): I feel that the Hawks are being underrated heading into this best of seven series vs. the Celtics. They finished the regular season #2 in efficiency in the Eastern Conference (trailing only Cleveland) on the back of a defense that allows only 98.8 points per 100 possessions. Only one other team in the league allowed fewer than one point per possession and that was San Antonio. Also of consequence here is that Boston is getting a sizable amount of the action (% of tickets written) despite being the road team. I realize that we all think of them as a gritty, underdog type team, but they're actually only 10-14 ATS this season when taking points. Under Brad Stevens, they've actually been mediocre - at best - when it comes to the betting window and NOT being in the second game of a back to back. I'm laying the points here. During Stevens' three-year tenure in Boston, no team has been better against the spread when playing w/o rest. But, curiously, the Celtics have struggled when playing w/ ample rest, including a 3-9 ATS mark this season when having exactly two days off between games. Not having home court advantage in the first round is huge for Boston, who has a losing road record. That's actually owed to Atlanta losing on the final day of the regular season. Additionally, Jae Crowder, who is arguably the Celtics' best two-way player, is currently dealing w/ a high ankle sprain. Boston might be the highest scoring team in the Eastern Conference (105.7 PPG), but their offensive threat - Isaiah Thomas - is only 5'9" and an unlikely candidate to lead his team to any kind of real playoff success. The Hawks beat the Celtics in three of the four regular season matchups, recording double digit victories in both home games. Getting back to defense, Atlanta was able to hold Boston under 45% shooting in all four games this year. Offensively, three-point sharpshooter Kyle Korver finally seemed to regain his lost touch down the stretch by connecting on almost 45% of his attempts from behind the arc over the last 22 games. Remember that Boston trailed by 24 - at home - in its regular season finale against Miami. 10* Atlanta |
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04-16-16 | Pacers +6.5 v. Raptors | Top | 100-90 | Win | 100 | 29 h 9 m | Show |
8* Indiana (12:30 ET): Toronto seems to be getting a lot of "love" coming into the playoffs. The second seed in the East, many are perceiving this to be the year that the Raptors finally break through to the second round and possibly beyond. But let's pump the brakes a bit, shall we? Remember, this is a franchise that has all of ONE playoff win in its history and it came all the way back in 2001 (a 5-game series). I think that they got a much tougher draw than most people realize with Indiana as the difference between the #2 and #7 seeds in this conference isn't all that great. Toronto has covered 10 of the last 11 matchups, including five straight here North of the Border (also 5-0 straight up), but of the four times the teams played this year, it was actually the Pacers' one win that was the largest margin of victory. Take the points. A clear case can be made that the Pacers should have finished the regular season w/ a better record than just 45-37 straight up. They were 0-7 SU in games that went to overtime, one of those losses occurring at home to Toronto. They performed well in conference games, going 30-22 SU and 32-20 ATS, and when working on two days' rest they are 10-3 at the betting window. The line moving just a tad in Toronto's direction seems to work in Indiana's favor as +6.5 to +9 seems to be their "sweet spot" as they're a perfect 4-0 ATS as a dog in that range, on the road. This is a team that ended the regular season on a three-game SU/ATS win streak and they are 7-2 ATS off a SU dog win. What serves them well is a #3 ranking in defensive efficiency (Toronto is 11th). Not only have the Raptors failed to advance in the playoffs, they have struggled to cover games w/ a 2-8 ATS mark the last two years. They have NEVER won a Game 1 in any series, ever. Similar to last year, their best player (Kyle Lowry) is going through a shooting slump at the worst possible time as the point guard is just 32.1 percent from the floor since 3.20. DeMarre Carroll, acquired to be the team's defensive stopper, is not 100 percent either. Toronto often struggles to defend the three-point line (29th in the league!). It is Indiana that may very well have the best player in this series (Paul George) and don't be surprised if they pull off a Game 1 upset. 8* Indiana |
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04-13-16 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -18 | Top | 104-125 | Win | 100 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
8* Golden State (10:35 ET): Predictably, the asking price is high on the Warriors as they go for their historic 73rd win of this regular season. They had plenty of trouble w/ the Grizzlies Saturday night, but that was in Memphis. The 100-99 victory saw them have to rally back from a 10-pt fourth quarter deficit, but the odds of them falling into any kind of similar hole in Oakland, on this night, is simply unlikely. The Grizzlies, who will limp into the playoffs as a very banged-up team w/ almost no chance of advancing (regardless of who the opponent is), are talking a big game but the reality is they have no chance of preventing history from being made tonight. Lay the points. I've written about this before, but it bears repeating. In terms of expected vs. actual wins (which is based on a team's point differential), the Grizzlies are the biggest overachiever in all of the league. They've been outscored - on average - by two points per game. That doesn't sound like much, but over the course of a season that works out to a 162 point difference compared to their opponents. Based on their YTD point differential, you'd expect their record to be 34-47 (it's 42-39). They have suffered multiple blowout losses (eight by 20 or more points) and the latest came last night in LA as the Clippers drubbed them 110-84. Another came in their only other prior visit to Oracle Arena this season, all the way back in November. The final score there was 119-69, easily the Grizzlies worst loss of the year. I'll come out and say it: Golden State surprised me Sunday night in San Antonio. They won 92-86, dealing the Spurs their first home loss all season. That's yet another big accomplishment in a season full of them for this team. The biggest would obviously be winning tonight and I'm actually not worried at all about the huge spread as this game is basically priced as if Memphis was at full strength, which they most certainly are not. We already know that both Marc Gasol and Mike Conley are lost for the year and the team's best defender, Tony Allen, is likely to sit out again due to a hamstring issue. The Warriors missed 26 of 36 three-point attempts Saturday in Memphis and that percentage is likely to go way up tonight. 8* Golden State |
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04-13-16 | 76ers v. Bulls -10.5 | Top | 105-115 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
10* Chicago (8:05 ET): Many times, a road team playing in the second game of a back to back offers some value, but I can't see 10-71 Philadelphia offering up much resistance tonight in the final game of the year. Last night saw the Sixers get crushed, 122-98 (were +12) in Toronto and there's really no reason why it shouldn't be a similar story tonight in the Windy City. Granted, the Bulls aren't going to the playoffs but they can draw motivation from this being an excellent opportunity to give their fans a nice ending to what has been otherwise a very disappointing (and injury-filled) campaign. The oddsmakers are expecting a blowout here and so am I. Lay the points. This is the fourth meeting of the season between these two teams. Chicago has won the previous three, which isn't surprising, nor is the fact that two have been blowouts. All the way back in November, as 10.5-pt chalk, they won 111-88 in Philadelphia. In December, they won 115-96 as 13.5-pt home favorites. It was a closer game (went to overtime) in January (at Philly), but the fact the Bulls were 8.5-pt favorites in that 115-111 win actually demonstrates that there's some value here. Adjusting for home court advantage, you'd expect Chicago to be about a 14.5-pt fave in this spot. Again, they were -13.5 the last time they hosted the Sixers - and covered w/ room to spare. In that January meeting where the Bulls failed to cover, Philly made 12 three-pointers and that isn't likely to happen again here. The numbers are as ugly as you'd expect from the Sixers this season and if you take out the four games in which they were favored (all at home, obviously), they become even uglier. The team has been outscored by a double digit margin in virtually all situations this year, so don't be afraid of this number. They are 0-6 in the second of B2B road games, losing by an average margin of 14.8 points. Now, you might question what will inspire Chicago to win big here. In addition to playing in front of the home crowd, they have a chance to finish the season w/ a winning record. Fred Hoiberg's team shot 57.1 percent and scored 121 pts in a win at New Orleans on Monday and while it will be tough to match either number here, they won't have to against what is the league's worst offensive club. 10* Chicago |