Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-07-21 | Bucks +2 v. Nets | Top | 86-125 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (7:35 ET): On the Nets’ very first offensive possession of Game 1, James Harden went down with an injury. He immediately went back to the locker room, never returned and has already been ruled out for Game 2. For most teams, the loss of a player like Harden would be devastating. But Brooklyn still has Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, who combined for 54 points. Then you had the likes of Joe Harris, Blake Griffin and Mike James combining for 49. The Nets ended up taking control of Game 1 in the second quarter and never looked back, winning 115-107 as 3.5-point chalk. They are 10-1 SU/ATS L11 games. I don’t think for a second that the triumvirate of Harris-Griffin-James is giving Brooklyn almost 50 points again. Also concerning were the number of minutes logged by both Durant (40:06) and Irving (44:35) in Game 1. While the Nets are “used to” playing w/o Harden at this point, this is the playoffs and his absence is more significant. Harden missed 18 straight games from April 5th to May 11th and the team lost eight of those games. This is not a team I trust defensively and Milwaukee is going to shoot much better from 3-point range in Game 2 than they did in Game 1. The Bucks also dominated the paint Saturday night, scoring 72 points. The Bucks did not shoot the ball well from 3-point range in Game 1 of the first round series against Miami. They missed 26 of 31 attempts. I immediately jumped on them for Game 2 and sure enough they shot 22 of 53 from behind the arc in a 132-98 blowout victory. Not saying it will be THAT easy tonight, but you can definitely count on improved 3-point shooting from Game 1 when they made just 6 of 30. This is a team that makes 38.3% of threes for the year. Eventually, the Bucks have to cover as underdogs (0-5 ATS this year). I think it happens Monday. Take the points. 8* Milwaukee |
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06-06-21 | Mavs v. Clippers -6 | Top | 111-126 | Win | 100 | 27 h 31 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (3:35 ET): Led by Kawhi Leonard’s 45 points (tied a career playoff high), the Clippers forced a Game 7 with a 104-97 win (as three-point favorites) on Friday night. According to ESPN’s Stats & Info department, this is the first time in NBA Playoff history (excluding LY’s bubble - when there was no home court advantage) that the road team has captured the first six games of a series. The road team is 6-0 ATS as well. I just can’t see the streak reaching seven games though. I released a ~SIGNATURE~ *10* ULTIMATE POWER for Game 6 and they came through. Now look for the home team to finally win (and cover) a game. As I noted in my Game 6 analysis, LA has gone off as the favorite for every game in the series. The spread for Game 7 is roughly on par for what it was in Games 1, 2 and 5. While the Clippers lost all of those games, I still point to the fact they have outscored Dallas in the series - now by 21 points. Something that jumped out to me when analyzing Game 6 is that the Clippers have been the much better team on a per possession basis. Dallas has also seen its shooting decline dramatically the L3 games. They’ve been below 42% overall from the field each game w/ 3pt shooting really taking a tumble. The Clippers were the NBA’s #1 three-point shooting team in the regular season (41.1%) so it’s been surprising to see them down at 35% in this series. Still, I take it as a positive sign that they were able to win Game 6 despite shooting just 29.4% from behind the arc. They did take twice as many free throws compared to the Mavs and made 10 more. But Leonard was the key, not just offensively, but also at the defensive end when it came to stopping Luka Doncic. I think he’ll be the difference again Sunday. Lay the points as the home team is “due” to win (and cover) Game 7. 10* LA Clippers |
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06-06-21 | Hawks +3 v. 76ers | Top | 128-124 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (1:05 ET): The Hawks turned a lot of heads when it took just five games to eliminate the Knicks. Trae Young was most definitely the best player on either team in that first round series and if Joel Embiid (questionable for Game 1) remains out for the 76ers, then Young is probably going to be the best player on the floor in this second round series as well. Regarding Embiid, though the Sixers did win the clincher vs. Washington, they are just 10-11 SU this season w/o the MVP Finalist. I don’t think many realize just how good this Atlanta team has been since Nate McMillan took over. They are 27-11 SU. That win percentage (.711) is the best in the Eastern Conference during that time. Philadelphia, who finished first in the East, won at a .703 clip in that same stretch. The Hawks were not a healthy team in the regular season as players combined to miss 278 regular season, fourth most in the league and most of all playoff teams. But now they are pretty healthy. DeAndre Hunter did an excellent job at stopping Knicks’ leading scorer Julius Randle. Atlanta held the Knicks to 39.9% overall shooting and 97.0 PPG. It won’t be that easy here, but Philly isn’t going to be shooting 51.1% in this series as they did vs. the defensively inept Wizards. If Embiid is out for any length of time, another potential issue for the 76ers is that their defensive efficiency rating jumps to 114.8 with the other four starters on the floor. Just to give you an idea of how big of a jump that is, a 114.8 defensive efficiency rating would rank dead last in the NBA. Philadelphia actually finished second overall in defensive efficiency. Now they have to concern themselves with Young, who is averaging 29.2 PPG in the playoffs and went over 30 in all three road games. Even if Embiid does play, he won’t be 100 percent. Atlanta is a hot team that is much better than most realize. This spread speaks volumes. 8* Atlanta |
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06-05-21 | Bucks +4 v. Nets | Top | 107-115 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (7:35 ET): Unlike the previous two postseasons, Milwaukee seems to be a bit underrated. They surprisingly made quick work of Miami in Round 1, sweeping the four game series and winning the L3 games by a combined 80 points. As I was looking ahead to the potential for a second round series with the Nets (which has obviously become a reality), my hope was that the Bucks wouldn’t be quite as dominant as I didn’t want them being viewed as a public side here. They’re still underdogs though and I think a case can be made that they were better than Brooklyn in the regular season. Take the points. Much will be made of the fact Milwaukee has had a full week off between series. Rest or rust? While I can’t fully answer that question now, I do think it was a GOOD thing that the Bucks had time to “come down” from the Heat series where they were looking to avenge LY’s Eastern Conference Finals. When it comes to the rest vs. rust debate, I don’t think there’s any real advantage or disadvantage here as Brooklyn has also had three days off. Both teams are 2-0 SU this season on 3+ days rest. The three regular season meetings between these teams were decided by a total of 11 points (none by more than six), so taking the points here seems like a reasonable option. Milwaukee posted the better regular season net efficiency rating and point differential. Obviously, Brooklyn is a different team now with all three of its stars (Durant, Irving, Harden) all in action. The Bucks had the higher defensive efficiency rating, which I view as key this time of year, and don’t be surprised when their three-point shooting improves from the previous round. Even with the home court advantage, I don’t think that the Nets should be favored by this many points. 8* Milwaukee |
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06-04-21 | Clippers -2 v. Mavs | Top | 104-97 | Win | 100 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (9:05 ET): The road team is 5-0 in this series, a trend the Clippers certainly hope continues Friday as they look to stay alive in the best of seven series with Dallas. They’re now down three games to two after dropping Game 5 105-100 as 7.5-point chalk. Los Angeles has been favored in all five games and has actually outscored Dallas, so it has to be terribly disappointing for them to be down in the series. I considered the Clippers to be the #2 overall team in the NBA coming into the playoffs, so it’s hard for me to see them bowing out of the playoffs so early. Lay the points here in Game 6. You’d have to go back more than a quarter century, to 1995, to find the last time the first five games of a playoff series all went to the road team. So history is not on the Clippers side. But this is a team that’s 23-15 SU away from home this season. Meanwhile, Dallas’ home struggles are nothing new. While their YTD record here at the American Airlines Center is 21-17 SU, they are actually 15-23 against the spread and have been outscored. The last game here in Dallas saw the Clippers win by 25. They won Game 3 by 10 points while shooting 57.9% from the field. The Mavs’ overall shooting has come down the last two games. They made only 34.8%, including 5 of 30 from three-point range, in Game 4. Then it was 41.6% in Game 5, only for them to get bailed out by an incredible individual from Luka Doncic. The Clippers played one bad quarter on Wednesday, that being the third when they went 8 of 21. This was the #1 three-point shooting team in the league during the regular season and they had a higher defensive efficiency rating than Dallas in the regular season. They are actually scoring the third most points per possession in the playoffs. They are 8-2 ATS L10 in Dallas and I still believe they are the better team. 10* LA Clippers |
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06-03-21 | Nuggets v. Blazers -5 | Top | 126-115 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
10* Portland (8:05 ET): The Blazers are both facing elimination and at home tonight, so I’ll lay the points in this “must-win” scenario. Game 5 of this series was an all-timer as it went to double overtime, but despite 55 points from Damian Lillard (made 12 threes!) the Blazers still lost the game 147-140. The “zig-zag theory” (simply take the ATS loser of the previous game) has been a fairly reliable 3-1 ATS so far in the series and you just get “the feeling” that these teams are destined for a Game 7. It’s impressive that Denver has the series lead here despite being without their two primary ballhandlers: Jamal Murray and Will Barton. Nikola Jokic is having himself quite the series, averaging 32.4 and 11.0 rebounds per game and he’s registered a double-double three times. But playing this game on the road, I don’t think the Nuggets can count on the kind of performances they got from Monte Morris (28 pts), Michael Porter Jr (26) and Austin Rivers (18) in Game 5. Going back to last season, Denver is 0-5 ATS when leading in a playoff series. Lillard’s teammates really let him down in the two overtime periods Monday as they shot a collective 1 for 19 from the floor. That’s atrocious. Similar to the regression I see happening with some of the Nuggets’ role players, I look for Portland’s (role players) to improve. Besides Lillard, the rest of the Blazers went 9 of 31 from three-point range in Game 5. This is a team that shoots 38.7% from behind the arc for the season. While a lot of that is Lillard, expect CJ McCollum to play a lot better here. 10* Portland |
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06-02-21 | Wizards v. 76ers -7 | Top | 112-129 | Win | 100 | 31 h 8 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): The 76ers failed in their first attempt to eliminate Washington, losing Game 4 by a score of 122-114 (as 8.5-point favorites). Even worse, Joel Embiid left Monday’s loss with a sore knee. Long-term, that is something definitely worth monitoring. Short-term, I still expect the Sixers to end this series in five games, even if Embiid does not play Wednesday. The Wizards’ overall fitness is not exactly 100 percent and they are 0-7 SU in the City of Brotherly Love the L3 seasons. Lay the points. In addition to the Embiid injury, it was one bad quarter that doomed Philly’s prospects on Monday. After they took an 11-point lead in the 1Q, things tightened up by halftime. Then they were outscored 32-19 in the 3Q, which is when the game - and the franchise’s chance at its first series sweep in 36 years - got away from them. It was during the 3Q that Washington chose to employ a “Hack-a-Ben” strategy, as in Ben Simmons, whose inability to hit free throws really cost the team. Simmons is a hideous 5 of 20 from the charity stripe in this series. It will be interesting to see if the Wizards continue to elect to send him to the line in this game. If they do, Simmons must make them pay. Let’s not forget that Washington was last in the league in the regular season in points allowed per game. They’ve been even worse in this series, allowing the 76ers to score an average 122.7 points in the four games. Russell Westbrook has played the L2 games, but is banged up, and Davis Bertans is now out for the rest of the series. That’s no matter as the Wizards’ season is going to end tonight as Philadelphia is a strong 8-2 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite this season. Three-point shooting has been a massive problem for the Wiz in the L3 game, which is not a surprise as the Sixers were #2 in the league during the regular season in number of points allowed per possession. Vintage “zig zag theory” here. 8* Philadelphia |
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06-01-21 | Celtics v. Nets -12 | Top | 109-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
8* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): I went with the Nets in Game 4 and that turned out to be rather easy as they blew past the Celtics 141-126. It was the most points ever scored by the franchise in a playoff game as they torched Boston for 57.8% shooting, including 16 of 27 from three-point range. More importantly, the win puts Brooklyn on the cusp of advancing to the second round. It is certainly in their best interest to advance ASAP, given that Milwaukee swept Miami. I think it’s pretty clear that the Nets are the vastly superior team here and short of another 50-point game from Jayson Tatum, they should win big. Tatum did go for 40 in Game 4, but that wasn’t nearly enough as his teammates shot just 42.8% from the field. Tatum got nearly half his production from the foul line (17/17), which can’t be counted on when you’re on the road like Boston now is for Game 5. Making Tatum’s job even tougher here is that the Celtics are playing short-handed. Both Kemba Walker and Robert Williams III sat out Sunday and may be out again here. Even if one or both injured players were to suit up tonight, I don’t think it will matter much. Walker is shooting just 31.8% in the series. Williams averages only 6.3 points per game. Going back to the end of the regular season, Boston has won only three of its last 10 games. I did take them in Game 3 (winner!), figuring that would be their “best effort” of the series and it was. But they are clearly outclassed here as the Nets got 80+ points from Durant/Harden in Game 3, then 80+ from Durant/Irving in Game 4. Too many weapons. Brooklyn is averaging 123.5 PPG in the series and shooting 49.3% overall, 41.3% from three-point range and 92% from the FT. Boston is now 0-9 ATS in its L9 times when playing with just one day of rest. Look for this series to end tonight in blowout fashion. 8* Brooklyn |
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05-30-21 | Nets -7 v. Celtics | Top | 141-126 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:05 ET): The Nets jumped out to a 19-4 lead on Friday and appeared well on their way to taking a 3-0 series lead. But Boston had the lead (33-32) by the end of the first quarter, something they would only briefly relinquish, and would end up winning 125-119 as seven-point underdogs. They were carried by Jayson Tatum’s 50 points. As someone who had the Celtics plus the points in Game 3, I loved it. But I also don’t think there’s any disputing who the stronger team is in this series. I’ll go with them (that being the Nets!) tonight in Game 4. Lay the points. Going into Game 3, Brooklyn was basically even money to sweep this series. So the odds are still strong that they’ll finish off the Celtics in five games instead of four. Boston simply shot the ball better in Game 3 (50.6%) than they did in either game at Brooklyn, led by Tatum’s incredible individual effort. If you were to take out the shooting of Kemba Walker and Romeo Langford, then the Celtics’ Game 3 shooting effort was downright insane. It’s something that won’t be repeated tonight in Game 4, even though they are still at home. Boston has not won B2B games in the month of May. Meanwhile, Brooklyn had won and covered seven straight before the Game 3 loss. An “off-night” was fairly predictable, which is why I took the Celtics in the last game, but so is the bounce back tonight. Outside of the “Big 3” (Durant, Harden, Irving), the rest of the Nets scored just 23 points on Friday. That number is going to go up here. The Nets were the NBA’s highest scoring team in the regular season and actually averaged more on the road than they did at home. This is the first time in the series with just one off day between games. Boston is 0-8 ATS its L8 games with just one day of rest. 10* Brooklyn |
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05-29-21 | 76ers v. Wizards +6.5 | Top | 132-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:05 ET): Same strategy here as last night’s winners on Boston and the Clippers. We’re taking the team down 0-2 and this one seems real similar to the Celtics play as the Wizards are at home and being largely “written off” in this series with the top seeded 76ers. Right now, the big story is the “iffy” status of Washington PG Russell Westbrook, who rolled his ankle in Game 2 and is listed as questionable for Game 3. But if there was ever a time to take the Wiz it would be here as you’ve got to figure we’re getting their best effort with the season on the line. Even if Westbrook does not play, the Wizards still have Bradley Beal, who was the league’s second leading scorer in the regular season. Westbrook or no Westbrook, Washington will definitely shoot better from three-point range here compared to the last game when they went a dismal 2 of 22 from downtown. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen such poor three-point shooting, especially from a team that averages 116.5 PPG. As you’d expect, the Wizards’ scoring average jumps here at home (to 119.6 PPG) and the role players should universally benefit from being back in familiar surroundings. Washington has won its last four home games and the last time they played here (play-in game vs. Indiana), they scored 142 points. Philadelphia won’t shoot 55.7% from the floor again as they did in Game 2. They’ve now scored 120 or more in four straight games, going back to the end of the regular season. But all four games were at home. Their scoring drops pretty dramatically on the road where they average just 109.8 PPG (as opposed to 117.7 at home). While the Sixers are 31-7 SU at home this season, they are only 20-16 SU on the road. Washington has covered five straight times off an ATS loss and Philly is 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games. 8* Washington |
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05-28-21 | Clippers -2 v. Mavs | Top | 118-108 | Win | 100 | 24 h 59 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (9:35 ET): The biggest swing that we’ve seen so far in terms of series odds is from Clippers-Mavs. The Clippers, initially -400 to win this series, are now down 0-2 and listed at +220. That’ll happen when you lose twice at home. Only 6.3% of teams that have fallen behind 0-2 in a best of seven series have gone on to advance. That’s the situation the Clippers find themselves in now, but the deficit is far from insurmountable. After all, they’re actually favored to win Game 3 in Dallas where they are 6-2 ATS L8 visits. I’m laying the short number Friday in what is an obvious “must-win” situation. Now, as I’ve detailed many times before, “must win” does not necessarily mean “will win,” But you’ve got to think the Clippers will at least start to rectify this discrepancy we’ve seen behind the three-point line. In the first two games of the series, Dallas has made 50% of its 3PA (35 of 70). The Clippers are at 24 of 73 or 32.8%. This is awfully strange for LA, who led the league in three-point shooting percentage (41.4%) during the regular season. They scored 73 points in the first half of Game 2 … and still lost! That’s because Dallas shot 58.5% overall and made 18 threes. Not only do I expect the Clips’ three-point shooting to get better in Game 3, I expect the defense to improve as well. They were a top eight team in defensive efficiency during the regular season. The good news is that after the last six times LA gave up 125+ points in a game, they came back and covered five times. They lost 127-121 in Game 2. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are both doing their jobs; they just need their teammates to start stepping up. The All-Star duo has 118 combined points through two games. I just cannot see this Clippers team losing a fifth straight game outright as favorites. I had them #2 overall in my own personal power rankings, heading into the playoffs. 10* LA Clippers |
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05-28-21 | Nets v. Celtics +7.5 | Top | 119-125 | Win | 100 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
8* Boston (8:35 ET): It certainly FEELS as if everyone is writing off the Celtics at this point. In fact, the general consensus seems to be that they’re about to be swept by the Nets. But down 0-2 in the series and back at home, I anticipate their strongest effort coming in Game 3. Remember that they were ahead at the half, on the road, in Game 1. Yes, I’m well aware of the fact that Jaylen Brown is out for the season and Jayson Tatum had to leave the last game - a 130-108 loss - with an eye injury. But Tatum’s status was upgraded on Thursday and he will play. Meanwhile, the Nets are going to be without Jeff Green the rest of this series. Now obviously the Nets are relying heavily on their “Big 3” - Durant, Irving & Harden - who played a total of just nine games together in the regular season (202 total minutes). They haven’t had a problem so far in this series, particularly Game 2 when they shot much better than they did in Game 1. The team shot 52.3% and made 17 threes with the “Big 3” scoring a combined 61 points. But really the star of the game was Joe Harris, who made seven of those 17 threes himself and finished with a team-high 25 points. One thing’s for sure and that’s you shouldn’t expect a repeat performance from Harris, who had 16 points in the 1Q, helping the Nets get out to an early 14-point lead and 24-point lead by half. Boston has yet to defeat Brooklyn this season in five tries and four of those losses have been by double digits. But, again, if they were to win one it would likely be this game. Home teams down 0-2 in a best of seven series have been excellent bets through the years. In this instance, it looks like we’re getting some tremendous value as the Celtics closed +8 and +8.5 in the first two games and those were in Brooklyn. This will be the Nets’ first road game in 17 days. The Celtics are 20-8 ATS L28 as home underdogs. 8* Boston |
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05-26-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -8.5 | Top | 129-141 | Win | 100 | 29 h 57 m | Show |
10* Utah (10:05 ET): The Jazz shockingly went down in Game 1, 112-109 as eight-point favorites. But PG Donovan Mitchell is on track to play in Game 2 and I’m willing to bet that the #1 overall seed in the playoffs bounces back from an overall dreadful night of shooting. A team that usually makes 46.8% of its field goal attempts made only 42.0% in Game 1 and things were even uglier from three-point range where Utah shot only 25.5%. Again, this was a 52-win team in the regular season and Sunday was only the sixth loss at home all season. They are almost +13.0 PPG at home and only five times this year have they lost B2B games. Lay the points. I’m not sure Memphis can possibly expect things to go any better than they did in Game 1. At one point, they missed 14 consecutive shots yet still led at halftime. Utah went 12 of 47 from three-point range when they normally average 38.7%. The average number of threes per game that the Jazz hit is 17. Dillon Brooks had 31 points for the Grizzlies in Game 1, which is something I don’t see being repeated. Memphis has now won eight of nine, including three straight since the play-in round began. But those three wins were all by five points or less (total of 12 pts). Mitchell sitting out in Game 1 for the Jazz has been a big topic of conversation over the last 48 hours. His presence is key considering the team lost six of its last 16 regular season games without him. Mitchell largely outplayed Brooks in two head to head regular season meetings, scoring twice as many points while shooting a far higher percentage. The Jazz were +14 in FT makes in Game 1, but lost in large part due to taking 20 fewer FG attempts. Memphis had 16 offensive rebounds, an edge I don’t think they’ll have again in any game moving forward. The Grizzlies are just 2-7 ATS off their L9 ATS wins. 10* Utah |
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05-25-21 | Lakers -1.5 v. Suns | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
10* LA Lakers (10:05 ET): The Lakers were still listed as the favorites to win the Western Conference coming into the playoffs (despite being a 7-seed!), but Phoenix was listed as the fave for Game 1 of this series and certainly looked like the better team Sunday afternoon. The Suns won 99-90, holding the Lakers to less than a point per possession, which is an impressive defensive effort. LA shot just 43.4% as a team, including 7 of 26 from three-point range. LeBron had just 18 points (only 13 FG attempts) while Anthony Davis shot 5 of 16 and had a +/- of -18. I think the Lakers bounce back in Game 2. The big story to monitor is Chris Paul’s shoulder. If the Phoenix PG is hampered by it, then the Suns are in trouble. Remember that the Lakers did lose Game 1 in Round 1 last year and then went on to win the next four over Portland, not to mention the NBA Championship. Getting back to the apparent Paul injury, he was clearly bothered by it late in Game 1. That’s probably why the Lakers are now favored to take Game 2. Well, that and the fact it seems unlikely they would fall down 0-2 in the series. Classic zig-zag play on the Lakers here. Oddsmakers are just trying to “scare bettors off” by making them the favorite. Let’s not forget how it’s the Lakers that ranked #1 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. I thought they did a pretty good job at that end of the floor in Game 1. They held the Suns 16 points below their season average. You’ve got to think the Lakers’ shooting will improve for Game 2. Meanwhile, the Paul injury could have a massive impact on the Suns offense. Obviously, you could say the same about James and the Lakers, but I’ve got more confidence in his ability to “play through it.” Look for him to go inside more often (took only four shots within 10 ft in Gm 1). 10* LA Lakers |
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05-24-21 | Blazers v. Nuggets -1.5 | Top | 109-128 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
10* Denver (10:05 ET): Despite shooting 50% for the entire game, leading at halftime and playing at home, the Nuggets still found a way to lose Game 1 to the Blazers - by 14 points. How could that be? Well, it basically boils down to two things: the third quarter and three-point shooting. With the former, they got outscored 38-25 in the third, which was basically the difference in the game. With the latter, they shot just 11 of 36 from 3-point range (30.6%) while Portland was 19 of 40 (47.5%). I don’t think we’ll be seeing a discrepancy like that again in Game 2 and am going full “zig zag theory” on this one. Lay the points. For those that are unfamiliar, the famed “zig zag theory” is as simple as it gets. You just take the ATS loser of the previous game. With Denver, they obviously cannot afford to drop both home games. This is a team that generally shoots much better from three-point range than they did in Game 1. They are now 0-4 ATS this season head to head with the Blazers, which seems odd seeing as how they have the better overall record. I think the majority of signs point to a Denver bounce back in this game and I’m honestly shocked the spread is not higher. Portland did a pretty decent job at defending Nikola Jokic in Game 1, which sounds odd as he went for 34 points. But he had only one assist, a career-low for the playoffs. I know the Nuggets are missing both Jamal Murray and Will Barton, but I’d remain leery of a Portland team that finished the regular season only ahead of Sacramento in terms of most points allowed on a per possession basis. Denver has been outstanding this season when seeking revenge for a home loss, going 10-1 straight up and 9-2 against the spread. They are also 11-2 ATS the L3 years when trailing in a playoff series. 10* Denver |
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05-24-21 | Heat v. Bucks -4.5 | Top | 98-132 | Win | 100 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (7:35 ET): For awhile there in Game 1, the Bucks had to be having flashbacks to LY’s Eastern Conference Semifinals as they were having all sorts of problems scoring against Miami. But thanks to Kris Middleton, who hit the GW in OT, the Bucks did win Game 1, 109-107. Winning a game where you shoot a horrendous 5 of 31 from three-point range is pretty huge in my book. You have to think that the Bucks, who were 4th in the league during the regular season in 3-point shooting (38.9%), will do better from distance in Game 2. Because of that, I’m laying the number tonight. Conversely, Miami should NOT feel good about losing Game 1. They made a franchise record 20 three-pointers (on 50 attempts!), meaning they outscored Milwaukee by 45 from behind the arc and still didn’t win. Also, hitting 20 threes and still only scoring 107 points (with overtime!) is pretty dreadful when you think about it. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo both struggled as they combined to go 8 of 37 from the field. As a team, the Heat made just 32.7% of their two-point attempts. They did cover, but just for the third time in their last 10 tries as a road underdog. The previous two seasons saw Milwaukee come into the playoffs with the best regular season record in the league. They “flamed out” both times, losing in the Eastern Conference Finals to Toronto two years ago and then Miami in the semis last fall. This year’s team “only” finished third in the Eastern Conference standings, but I feel they’re a much better value vis a vis the rest of the field, at least compared to the L2 years. The Heat made a somewhat improbable playoff run in a “bubble” LY, but now the Bucks have home court advantage and I like them to go up 2-0 in the series. 8* Milwaukee |
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05-23-21 | Hawks +1.5 v. Knicks | Top | 107-105 | Win | 100 | 32 h 19 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:05 ET): I don’t think many could have predicted that the Knicks, who finished 21-45 SU in LY’s abbreviated regular season and thus weren’t even invited to the bubble, would have home court advantage for a first round playoff series. Then again, Atlanta is another team that went from “not being good enough for the bubble” to the playoffs this season. Two of the league’s most improved teams square off here in this first round series and I like the Hawks to take Game 1. Take the points. New York’s massive jump in the standings this season was largely a byproduct of their defense, which gave up a league-low 104.7 PPG in the regular season. The team also covered at a shocking rate, going 45-25-2 ATS, the best such mark in the league. There is no doubt that MSG, which will be near full capacity (15,000 fans), should be rocking Sunday night as it’s been a long time since the “World’s Most Famous Arena” hosted a playoff basketball game. But the Knicks feel like a very “public” side here and it’s rather curious the line is so short. Personally, I’m not shocked as I view these teams as being pretty even. The reason the Knicks have home court advantage for this series is because they went 3-0 head to head with the Hawks in the regular season. I don’t think NY has any distinct matchup advantage, so Atlanta is due to break through with a victory here. The Hawks led two of those three games at the half, so it’s not as if they played poorly. Since Nate McMillan took over as the interim HC, the Hawks are 27-11 SU. New York was pretty fortunate in close games down the stretch and I see things likely to go “the other way” for them here. 10* Atlanta |
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05-22-21 | Celtics +8 v. Nets | Top | 93-104 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
8* Boston (8:05 ET): The Nets are reportedly attracting plenty of action to win the NBA Finals. With the trio of Durant, Irving and Harden, it’s easy to see why they’d be so attractive to the public. But I am far less sold on this team’s championship prospects - at least in year one together. In the past, we’ve seen “super teams” (like the Heat in 2010) fail to meet their championship goal in their first season together. With this one, the three stars have spent a very limited amount of time on the court together (9 games, 202 total minutes). I’ll take the points with Boston in Game 1. The Celtics won the play-in game vs. Washington to become the #1 seed. They controlled most of the way and really took control in the third quarter where they outscored the Wizards 38-26. It ended up being a 118-100 final with Jayson Tatum’s 50 points leading the way. It will obviously be nowhere near that easy in this series, but Boston didn’t even shoot 40% on Tuesday and still won comfortably. It was that kind of mentality that led me to (successfully) take Memphis last night. Boston has covered its last three games. Brooklyn is on a 5-0 SU/ATS run. So something will have to give at the betting window tonight. With these teams being division rivals, there’s a sense of familiarity and typically the underdog (especially when getting this many points) is the way to go in such matchups. Now the Celtics did lose all three regular season meetings and are 0-5 SU/ATS L5 trips to Brooklyn. But HC Brad Stevens is 7-1 ATS his L8 first round playoff games and the Celtics are 6-1 ATS L7 as road dogs. 8* Boston |
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05-21-21 | Grizzlies +4 v. Warriors | Top | 117-112 | Win | 100 | 22 h 20 m | Show |
8* Memphis (9:05 ET): That the Grizzlies were able to still win on Wednesday, despite it being a poor offensive night, is probably a good thing. They did jump out to a commanding 38-19 lead after one quarter. But from there, they scored just 62 points over the final three quarters with 28 of those coming in the fourth as they held on for the 100-96 victory. They shot just 7 of 22 from three-point range and were an ugly 54.2% from the FT line. I say it’s “probably a good thing” (that they shot poorly and still won) because it’s highly unlikely they’ll shoot that poorly again tonight vs. Golden State. The Warriors obviously lost on Wednesday, 103-100 to the Lakers, thus setting up this winner take all game. It wasn’t a particularly great shooting game for Golden State either on Wednesday, outside of Steph Curry. Curry had 37 points on 12 of 23 attempts, including 6 of 9 from three. But he had only one teammate score more than 10 points. Yes, it’s likely that Golden State’s “other players” will contribute more now that they’re at home. But might Curry be a different story? Everyone remembers him dropping 46 on the Grizz in Sunday’s regular season finale. But it was somewhat inefficient in doing so, needing 36 shots and he took a season-high 22 3PA. Memphis isn’t going to shoot as poorly tonight as they did Sunday nor as poorly as they did on Wednesday. They average 116.6 PPG on the road, which is significantly more than they average at home (109.8). I think most people are going to see Steph Curry and the Warriors laying short number at home and jump all over it. So the Warriors will be a very “public play” tonight (especially with this being the lone game). But I see these teams as being pretty even and the Grizzlies actually posted the higher offensive efficiency rating in the regular season. Memphis is 9-2 ATS L11 as a dog. 8* Memphis |
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05-20-21 | Pacers +3.5 v. Wizards | Top | 115-142 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
10* Indiana (8:05 ET): Four games into the NBA’s new “Play In Tournament,” the home team has yet to lose. However, despite the way the regular season series went down, I believe Indiana has a great shot at changing that here against Washington. Yes, the Wizards won all three regular season meetings and had a strong close to their regular season. But Indiana has now covered five straight games and obviously looked far more impressive Tuesday night. Take the points in this one. The Wizards are 15-6 their L21 games, but picked a poor time to play their worst game in over a month. They lost by 18 in Boston Tuesday, a game which could have gotten them into the playoffs as the 7-seed. Now they get a second try and can be the 8-seed, but despite the strong finish to the regular season, I have my concerns. This is the worst defensive team in the entire NBA, at least in terms of points allowed per game. They also have a negative net efficiency rating as they are outscored by 1.6 points per 100 possessions. Based on that, I’m not sure they should be the favorites tonight, even with the home court advantage. Indiana has a positive net efficiency rating and obviously looked great on Tuesday, shooting 55.2% from the field on their way to an easy 144-117 beatdown of Charlotte. While they did lose every regular season matchup with the Wizards, the Pacers still ended up averaging 132.3 points in the three games. Now the flip side of that is they obviously played terrible defense. But I have no doubt that they will score a ton of points tonight. Two of the three regular season losses were close, one of them went to OT. Indiana actually has a better record on the road (21-15 SU) than at home. 10* Indiana |
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05-19-21 | Warriors v. Lakers -4.5 | Top | 100-103 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 52 m | Show |
8* LA Lakers (10:05 ET): Given that the Lakers are still listed as the odds on favorite to win the Western Conference, it seems highly unlikely that they would fail to make it out of the NBA’s first ever “play-in tournament.” Then again, it’s pretty remarkable that the defending NBA Champs are even involved in this. But injuries to both LeBron James and Anthony Davis really derailed this team’s regular season and they fell all the way to 7th in the Western Conference. All things considered, it’s really an incredible matchup we have here with the reigning champs taking on the former three-time champion Warriors. Golden State, as was expected, improved dramatically from LY’s disastrous 15-win campaign. Steph Curry (injured most of last season) being back was responsible for most of that improvement as the former MVP led the league in scoring at 32 points per game. But let’s be clear that this is not the “same old Warriors team” of a few seasons ago. Believe it or not, they were only favored in 31 of their 72 regular season games. So they actually “overachieved” in getting to 39-33 SU. They were pretty good at home (25-11 SU, 23-13 ATS), but the road was a different story as their record was 14-22 SU and ATS. Bettors seemed to think that this spread opened too high, but I now see a pretty substantial discount on the Lakers here. If anything, Golden State figures to be a pretty public dog Wednesday night. It’s rare that the public isn’t siding with LeBron, but it’s the case here. Not only are James and Davis back, but so too is Dennis Schroeder. The Lakers are #1 in the league in defensive efficiency and I view this as the ultimate “buy low” spot. Kelly Oubre Jr is out for Golden State. The Lakers won the season series 2-1 with the wins coming by 31 and 26 points. The one loss saw them ahead by 14 going into the 4Q. 8* LA Lakers |
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05-19-21 | Spurs v. Grizzlies -3.5 | Top | 96-100 | Win | 100 | 27 h 23 m | Show |
10* Memphis (7:35 ET): San Antonio is NOT a team I see winning in this play-in tournament. There was a five-game gap between them and 9th place Grizzlies, which is larger than the gap between 7th and 10th in the Eastern Conference. I thought the Spurs were a weaker team than New Orleans, who didn’t even make the play-in tourney. Greg Popovich’s team did not have a good close to the regular season, losing the last four games as well as 10 of the last 12. Five of those were double digit defeats, three of them by 22+ points. Memphis lost the regular season finale, 113-101 at Golden State, denying them an opportunity to take on the Lakers for the right to be the 7-seed. Though beating the Lakers was probably unlikely, it still would have been an easier path to the playoffs for the Grizzlies as they’d have two chances. Now they must win here just to earn the right to face the Lakers/Warriors loser for the 8-seed. While the road team took all three regular season matchups between San Antonio & Memphis, the Grizzlies will be glad to get this one at home where they’ve won four in a row. They’d won five straight overall before the loss to Golden State. They are simply better at both ends of the floor than the Spurs, who have posted B2B losing season for the first time since the mid-1980s. Following a DD loss, the Grizzlies have gone 15-5 ATS this season (it was 113-101 at Golden State). The Spurs have lost 14 of 17 to teams with a better than .500 record and have let four of their last five opponents shoot 50% or better from the field. Memphis has let only four of its last 19 shoot that well. 10* Memphis |
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05-16-21 | Hornets +6.5 v. Wizards | Top | 110-115 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (1:05 ET): Both of these teams will be in the Play-In Tournament, which begins Tuesday. It’s just a matter of which seed they end up with and who they’ll face. It could end up with them facing one another again. This game will go a long way in determining the East’s 8-10 seeds. Both Charlotte and Washington are 33-38 SU entering the final day of the regular season. So is Indiana, who plays Toronto Sunday. The winner of this game is guaranteed the 8-seed, which is huge as it means that the team would only need to beat Boston (easier said than done) to get into “the normal playoffs.” The loser of this game finishes either 9th or 10th in the East, depending on what happens in that Pacers-Raptors games. That means whoever loses here would not only have to beat the Pacers (possibly on the road), but then also the loser of the Celtics vs. #8 seed game, just to get into the playoffs. Got all that? The bottom line is that this is one of the more important games on Sunday’s slate. Charlotte is 2-0 SU/ATS vs. Washington this season (both wins by double digits), but has been fading badly down the stretch. Yesterday’s overtime loss to the Knicks was the Hornets’ fourth straight. Meanwhile, the Wizards have been surging with a 14-5 SU record the L19 games including a 15-point victory over Cleveland on Friday. All five losses since April 12th have been by four points or less. But I think this team has been playing “over its head” and it’s difficult to look past the fact they allow the most PPG in the league. They may also not have leading scorer Bradley Beal today. Charlotte got back Miles Bridges yesterday and he scored 30 in his return from quarantine. I think this is too many points. 10* Charlotte |
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05-13-21 | Spurs +5 v. Knicks | Top | 98-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (7:35 ET): Last night, the Spurs failed to clinch the final spot in the Western Conference’s “play-in tournament” as they lost 128-116 at Brooklyn. It was a game they never led and trailed by double digits most of the way. With their two final regular season games both coming against high-flying Phoenix, San Antonio could badly use a win here so that they don’t have to worry about beating the Suns. I know that it’s the second game of a back to back, but their opponents are returning home after a long West Coast swing, so there’s no situational advantage in terms of scheduling. Take the points. The Knicks are the league’s biggest surprise this season as they have clinched a top six spot in the East and could finish as high as fourth. To the point they’ve been surprising, no team in the league has a better ATS record than New York’s 44-23-2. They are covering games at a near historic pace, but I think the oddsmakers are eventually going to “catch up with them.” This is a team that has been an underdog in two-thirds of its games including each of the last five. After a series of high-profile non-conference clashes vs. the likes of the Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets and Suns, this could be letdown territory for the favorite. The Knicks-Lakers game on Monday saw 22 lead changes and went to OT. The Knicks lost 101-99 as they shot below 40% overall. Over the L4 games, the Knicks have not broken 106 points. San Antonio is just two games removed from a shocking 146-125 win over Milwaukee and while they lost at Brooklyn last night, the Spurs are a better team on the road with a 19-16 SU record. The Knicks could be playing short-handed tonight as four players are listed as questionable on the injury report. 8* San Antonio |
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05-12-21 | Wizards v. Hawks -6 | Top | 116-120 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:05 ET): Here’s a stat for you: five of Washington’s last six games have been decided by two points or less! Four of them have been decided by one point! They are 2-2 SU in the four one-point games, including a 125-124 loss here in Atlanta on Monday. I thought the Wizards were a bit lucky to make a game of it, though I may be biased considering I laid the points with the Hawks, who had a 17-point lead going into the fourth quarter. The Wiz didn’t have Bradley Beal in the lineup Monday and he’s out again tonight. Missing the NBA’s second leading scorer is significant and I don’t see the road team being so “lucky” this time. By going 15-5 SU in its last 20 games, Washington is likely going to make the playoffs. But only three teams in the entire Eastern Conference have a worse YTD point differential and those are Detroit, Cleveland and Orlando. Defensively, the Wizards are very bad as they are giving up an average of 132.4 points the last five games. Granted, two of the games went to OT, but there’s been just one time in the L6 games that they did NOT give up at least 124 in regulation. They are dead last in the entire NBA in points allowed per game. I can’t see Washington shooting better than 50% overall - and from three-point range - again like they did Monday. Not with Beal out of the lineup. This opens the door for the Hawks to win their ninth in a row at home. Before beating Washington Monday, the previous six home wins had all been by at least seven points. The Hawks fell victim to a 45-point 4Q on Monday, something I certainly don’t see repeating itself here. Look for the home team to win big. 10* Atlanta |
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05-10-21 | Rockets v. Blazers -14.5 | Top | 129-140 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
8* Portland (10:10 ET): It’s a lot of points to lay with Portland tonight, but they are taking on a very bad team that will be playing its third difficult road game in four nights. Houston is last in the NBA with a 16-52 SU record and has lost five in a row, Their last two losses came Friday in Milwaukee and Saturday in Utah. They actually covered both spreads, but with nothing left to play for - and the season winding down - you’ve got to wonder what (if anything) they’ve got left in the tank. Plus, Portland has played REALLY well of late, winning seven of eight. Six of those seven wins have been by double digits. These teams have met twice before this season and both games were close, decided by three points or less. Houston won one of them, but that was at home. It’s also important to note that both prior meetings occurred before “the bottom dropped out” in Houston after the James Harden trade. They were 8-9 after beating Portland on January 28th. They’ve only won eight of 51 games since. Bottom line though, the Blazers are going to take this one seriously. Especially since they are trying to clinch a top six spot in the Western Conference to avoid the “play-in” tournament. The Blazers are currently one game ahead of the Lakers for sixth. They have the tiebreaker over LA by virtue of winning the season series. Their last game was a 22-point win over San Antonio and they are now 8-2 ATS L10 games vs. losing teams. The Rockets have had only eight players available each of their L2 games, so it’s a minor miracle they were even able to cover. They could have 10 players available tonight, but the returnees would be Christian Wood and Kelly Olynyk, neither of whom are exactly “All-Stars.” Lay the points here. 8* Portland |
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05-10-21 | Wizards v. Hawks -7.5 | Top | 124-125 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Washington seems to have played itself into the Eastern Conference’s play-in tournament, which will determine the final two seeds in the playoffs proper. Since April 7th, the Wizards are 15-4 with three of those losses coming by a total of five points. Two were by one point and the three-point loss came in OT. But it’s just as important to note the Wiz are still four games under .500, have been outscored on the season and on a per possession basis. Perhaps most important of all is that they won’t have the NBA’s 2nd leading scorer, Bradley Beal, in the lineup tonight vs. Atlanta. The Hawks are trying to chase down the #4 seed in the Eastern Conference, which would mean home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Right now, they trail the Knicks by one game in the race for that spot. Losing at Indiana on Thursday did not help, but the Hawks have had three days to recover from a game where they allowed the opponent to shoot 62.1 percent from the floor and score 133 points. The positive from that is Atlanta is a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS this season following a game where they surrendered 130+ points. The rest is also huge, especially facing a team that’s playing it’s fourth road game in six nights. While the Wizards’ last three losses have all been very close, what I failed to mention is that they are coming off B2B OT wins as well. Beal scored 50 in a 133-132 win against Indiana on Saturday. He will be sorely missed tonight. For Atlanta, De’Andre Hunter could return to the lineup tonight (gametime decision) as he practiced in full on Sunday. They did just lose at Indiana, but the Hawks have won seven straight at home and their last time here saw them destroy Phoenix by 32. Coming off extended rest, I believe they are well positioned to blow out their division rival tonight. 10* Atlanta |
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05-09-21 | Bulls v. Pistons +9 | Top | 108-96 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
10* Detroit (8:05 ET): Chicago is off B2B blowout victories, but it’s probably a case of “too little, too late” as they still trail by three games in the race for the final play-in spot. You’ve got to wonder where the team would be had leading scorer Zach LaVine not missed so much time. LaVine is now back and so is Nikola Vucevic. The Bulls have to be happy that they just beat Charlotte and Boston (two teams ahead of them) by nearly identical scores. But laying this many points with them on the road would be a bad idea. In last place in the Eastern Conference, Detroit is in the second game of a back to back here. They lost at Philadelphia, 118-104, and a relatively high-scoring second half cost me my Under. Not happy about that, especially after the Pistons scored just 17 points in the first quarter. I do expect them to shoot the ball better tonight and remember what I talked about in yesterday’s analysis. Though they’re giving their young players most of the minutes right now, the Pistons are probably better than their record. They are definitely better than the two teams directly ahead of them in the standings, Cleveland and Orlando. Chicago is just 3-5 SU its last eight games and has been favored only once during that span. The number of times this season they’ve been favored by more than five points is THREE and they lost two of those games outright. All three games were at home. There is a chance this could be the most points the Bulls have had to lay in any game all season. So there’s some real value in fading them off rare B2B blowout victories. The Pistons are 17-9 ATS off a double digit loss. 10* Detroit |
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05-08-21 | Nets -3.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 125-119 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (10:05 ET): The Nets’ current four-game losing streak is a season-worst. Previous to this, they’d only lost three in a row one other time and that was back in early February. After that three-game losing streak, the team proceeded to win (and cover) its next eight games. But a 113-109 loss at Dallas Thursday night ensured there would be no repeat of that. The Nets have also now failed to cover four in a row. There’s only been one longer ATS losing skid this season and that occurred in the first seven games of the season. But I do see Brooklyn bouncing back tonight in Denver as the Nuggets find themselves in the second half of a challenging back to back. Last night, the Nuggets were in Utah and lost to the Jazz 127-120. Now in fourth place in the Western Conference, they have a very comfortable lead (five games) over fifth place Dallas, but last night’s loss leaves them one game back of the Clippers. I don’t see Denver catching the Clips. Not without PG Jamal Murray, whose season is done due to an ACL tear. While the Nuggets have actually fared quite well (so far) w/o Murray (10-3 SU), they’ve dropped two of three and the injuries have really started to pile up with Morris, Barton and Dozier all out. Brooklyn is missing James Harden and is just 10-9 SU without him. But they still have Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, the latter of whom scored 45 against the Mavs Thursday. There’s a greater sense of urgency for the Nets right now (compared to Denver) as they are now three games back of first place Philadelphia in the East and tied with Milwaukee for second. The Nets haven’t shot the ball all that well the L4 games, odd for a team that averages 118.5 PPG, while I don’t see Denver matching last night’s 51.8% shooting. The Nets won by six when these teams met in January to improve to 5-1 ATS L6 meetings. 10* Brooklyn |
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05-07-21 | Magic +9.5 v. Hornets | Top | 112-122 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
9* Orlando (8:05 ET): This is definitely more of a fade on Charlotte than any kind of endorsement of Orlando. The Hornets got blown out last night, here at home by Chicago, 120-99. A team I have been skeptical of for most of this season probably shouldn’t be laying this many points to anybody, let alone on the second night of a back to back. I suppose that theory will be put to the test tonight as the Magic are off a 36-point home loss to Boston the other night. Look for them to play a lot better here and take the points. Prior to getting blown out by Boston, the Magic had won two in a row. One of those was in Detroit and the other at home against Memphis. It’s been a long season for the Magic, who have the worst point differential in the Eastern Conference. But a division game where they are getting a lot of points, and off a blowout loss, is a good “buy low” spot. They’ve already split two games with Charlotte this season with the loss coming by only three points on the road. The Hornets continue to deal with injuries, even though LaMelo Ball and Malik Monk are back. Devonte Graham is questionable for tonight after also sitting last night and forward Miles Bridges is also out. Ball shot 1 for 10 against the Bulls, but the team was actually 16 of 35 from three and still lost by 21 at home (and scored less than 100 points). Charlotte is a below average team by the numbers. Reports out of Orlando is that the team had a good practice following the humiliating loss on Wednesday. I don’t see them getting blown out again. 9* Orlando |
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05-06-21 | Lakers v. Clippers -8 | Top | 94-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (10:05 ET): I have the Clippers rated #2 in my own power rankings (Utah is #1). But right now they are tied for third in the conference and could be looking at a first round playoff matchup with the Lakers. They probably want to avoid that, even though they are already 2-0 vs. the Lakers this season. Ironically, if they were to beat their rival again here it would increase the probability of that first round playoff matchup happening. But I don’t think the Clippers care about that right now. They’ve lost three of five and see a Lakers team that won’t have LeBron James tonight. I think the Clips win big. The Lakers won’t have James (rest) or Dennis Schroeder (quarantine), so that’s their two primary ball-handlers out. They did just win in Denver, but the Lakers have been struggling of late with only two wins in the last eight games. The win in Denver snapped a seven-game ATS losing skid. I just don’t like the way the Lakers are trending and it seems unlikely they will turn things around with James out of the lineup, although they did win Monday without him. But the Lakers have been bad as underdogs, going 4-15 straight up and 6-13 against the spread. The Clippers now have Kawhi Leonard back and while they are 0-2 ATS since his return, the lineup they’ll have on the court tonight is going to be much stronger than what the Lakers trot out. Patrick Beverley returned from injury on Tuesday. The last five games have seen the Clippers go 0-5 ATS and average only 104.4 PPG. I see them “breaking out” at the offensive end in this game. They beat the Lakers by 18 last month. Anthony Davis is back for the Purple & Gold, but James isn’t and Schroeder’s absence will be felt as well. 8* LA Clippers |
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05-05-21 | Kings +6.5 v. Pacers | Top | 104-93 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
10* Sacramento (8:05 ET): The Kings won their third straight game last night, squeaking by the Thunder (in OKC) 103-99. I had the Under there, which was an easy win (cashed by 27 points!), as I loved the fact that both teams were playing without their respective leading scorers. The loss of De’Aaron Fox hasn’t seemed to bother Sacramento all that much however, as the team has not only won (and covered) three straight, but also five of its last seven. I’ll take the points Wednesday as Indiana is even more banged up than the Kings. The Pacers have scored an incredible 293 points their last two games. That’s the good news. While they turned in the biggest road win in NBA history (at OKC) on Saturday (152-95), they turned around and gave up 154 (no OT!) to the Wizards on Monday. They allowed the Wizards to shoot 61.2% from the field, an alarming number which included only nine made three-pointers for the Wiz. Indiana has not been good ATS at home all year, owning an 8-22 record. There are rumors that HC Nate Bjorkgren’s future here may be in some trouble as he’s had trouble “gelling” with players & staff. Sacramento isn’t likely to make the playoffs, but this three-game win streak shows they aren’t going down without a fight. Beating the Thunder isn’t anything special, but the two previous wins were against the Lakers (w/ LeBron) and Dallas. Indiana will likely be in the “play-in” tournament in the Eastern Conference, but is also four games below .500 and the record-setting thrashing of the Thunder is their only win in the L4 games. With seven players listed as questionable or out, the Pacers shouldn’t be laying this many points. 10* Sacramento |
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05-05-21 | Blazers v. Cavs +11 | Top | 141-105 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:35 ET): My condolences to anyone who may have bet the Cavs last night. A double digit home dog, they took Phoenix into overtime but did NOT get the cover as they were outscored 20-4 in the extra five minute period. That’s tough. But I’ll use that result to my advantage tonight as the Cavs are again catching double digits at home, but facing a weaker opponent. Having failed to cover any of their last seven games, Cleveland is “due” to get the cash sooner rather than later. So take the points here. Portland comes into C-town off a 123-114 loss at Atlanta. This is the final game of a six-game trip out East for the Blazers and while they won the first four, the schedule is bound to catch up with them. This is their third road game in four nights, always a tough situation. While the Blazers do have a 20-13 SU road record this season, they are outscoring teams by just 1.2 points per game. So they should feel fortunate to have that record. Quite frankly, I’ve been skeptical of this team finishing in the top six in the West for some time now. The Blazers are just one game back of Dallas and the Lakers for sixth. They could end up finishing as high as fifth, but I don’t see that happening. This team is very bad defensively as they give up the second highest number of points per possession in the league (only Sacramento is worse). Though Portland wasn’t nearly as healthy the first time these teams met, it’s notable they were only -3.5 at home. This is the most points they’ve been asked to lay on the road all season and it’s only the third time they’re set to go off as a DD favorite, period. 8* Cleveland |
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05-04-21 | Raptors v. Clippers -9.5 | Top | 100-105 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (10:05 ET): Toronto will look to make it an “LA double” tonight as they face the Clippers on TNT. Sunday saw the Raptors pull off an upset of the Lakers (as 10.5-point dogs). The 121-114 win was much needed as not only did it snap a three-game losing streak, but it also kept the team’s fleeting playoff hopes alive. While I do think the Raptors are better than their overall record shows, it’s hard to look past an 11-22 SU record on the road this season. Kawhi Leonard is back for the Clippers and now it’s their turn to snap a three-game losing streak. Lay the points. Leonard made his official return on Saturday, playing 30 minutes in the Clips’ 110-104 loss to Denver. That loss dropped the team into fourth place in the Western Conference, even though they own the league’s second best net efficiency rating (trailing only Utah). I expect a big finish to the regular season from them, starting here, as the current three-game slide matches their longest of the season. The only previous time they were on a three-game losing streak, they responded by destroying Golden State 130-104. The Clippers have not shot the ball recently and have failed to score 110 points in any of the last four games. Look for that to change here as this is the #2 team in the league in offensive efficiency and they still are averaging 116.7 PPG at home. Toronto is playing its fourth road game in six days, not to mention third in the last four, and the previous opponents were Denver, Utah and the Lakers. So this is the end of a treacherous gauntlet and I can see them being out of gas. 8* LA Clippers |
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05-03-21 | Spurs +7 v. Jazz | Top | 99-110 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (10:05 ET): Admittedly, this looks like a challenging spot for the Spurs. They lost for the third straight time yesterday and it was the second straight loss in overtime. They’ve played three OT games in the last seven days. Now they must turn around and head to Salt Lake City where the league-leading Jazz await. But Utah has been much shakier of late, at least at the betting window where they’re 1-4 ATS L5 and 3-8 ATS L11. I’ll take the points as this is a critical game for San Antonio. Friday saw the Spurs blow all of a 32-point lead and lose to Boston 143-140 in overtime. Jayson Tatum scored 60 for the Celtics in that one. Yesterday, San Antonio actually rallied from a 10-point 4Q deficit to force OT. But it was still the same painful end result as they went down 113-111. On the bright side, the team is now 5-1 ATS in its L6 games. But they’ve lost three in a row SU (all by 5 points or less) and their lead over New Orleans for the final playoff spot is down to 2.5 games. It’s imperative that they turn things around. The fact they took the Sixers to OT yesterday was actually impressive when you consider the Spurs were down four starters. Two of them - DeMar DeRozan and Jakob Poeltl - rested and should be back tonight. This will be the first of two straight games in Salt Lake City (next one is Wednesday). Over the last five games, Utah has just one win by more than four points. They’ve actually lost three of the five outright, including two to Minnesota. So the Jazz aren’t immune to being upset. The Spurs are 21-9 ATS on the road this year. 8* San Antonio |
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05-03-21 | Magic v. Pistons -2 | Top | 119-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
10* Detroit (7:05 ET): You may remember the last time I went with the Pistons. It was April 19th and they actually closed as a dog, here at home, vs. Cleveland. They would go on to win that game 109-105 after jumping out to an early 32-9 lead. Despite the fact the Pistons were the last place team in the East and starting several young players, I was adamant that they were a better team than Cleveland. Three weeks later, they’re still in last and still going with a youth movement. But I feel even stronger about the Pistons being a better team than Orlando, who they’ll host Monday. You’ll want to lay the short number in this one. By most objective measures, it’s pretty obvious that the Pistons are better than the Magic. They’ve got a better per game point differential (-4.0) compared to Orlando (-8.3). Not only are the Magic last in the East in PD, they are also last in net efficiency rating. I’ve got them from second from the bottom overall in my own personal power ratings, ahead of only Oklahoma City. Detroit, despite having the worst record in the Eastern Conference, is actually ahead of six teams in the power ratings. Orlando does have the better won-loss record, but only by a game and that discrepancy can be rectified tonight. You may also recall that I just faded the Pistons on Friday when they lost to Charlotte 107-94. But that was a road game. At home, Detroit isn’t bad defensively as they allow just 107.7 PPG, which is much less than they give up on the road. Orlando is off a win here, just their third since April 1st, so now it’s an appropriate time to fade them. They scored just 75 points in their last road game and have lost 13 of 16 overall. The Pistons are 17-8 ATS off a double digit loss this season. 10* Detroit |
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05-02-21 | Knicks -9.5 v. Rockets | Top | 122-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* New York (8:05 ET): Houston actually had a 55-49 halftime advantage last night against Golden State. But things then turned - rather dramatically - in the third quarter as the Steph Curry Warriors went on a 24-0 run and outscored the Rockets 39-12 over the 12 minute period. It ended up being a 113-87 final and now Houston must play the second half of a back to back against the surprising Knicks, who lead the NBA in points per game allowed and are an incredible 13-1 ATS their last 14 games. It’s a big number to lay on the road, but I think the Knicks are going to cover it. I don’t think anybody - myself included - envisioned the Knicks finishing fourth in the Eastern Conference this season. But that’s where they are and most of the metrics say this team is a legit #4 in the conference right now. As I already mentioned, they are giving up the fewest number of points in the entire NBA. Last time they took the floor, they held Chicago to just 94 points as it was commanding fourth quarter performance, leading to the Knicks’ 10th SU win in their L11 games. That win over the Bulls took place on Wednesday, meaning the Knicks have had three days off. That’s a tremendous edge to have against an opponent playing in the second night of a back to back. ICYMI, the Rockets scored only 87 points on 36.0% shooting last night. So they figure to struggle against Tom Thibodeau’s stingy defense. Houston is a team that has won just five games since Feb 5! They are a miserable 8-24 ATS this season coming off a double digit loss, not to mention 8-26 ATS in all home games. The Knicks have been outstanding when favored this year, going 17-5 SU/16-6 ATS. Yeah, this is a big number, especially for them. But the situation very much calls for it. The Knicks won the first meeting by 22 and the Rockets are a skeleton crew, playing out the string. 10* New York |
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05-01-21 | Pistons v. Hornets -7 | Top | 94-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Though I don’t think the Hornets are as good as their record indicates and the Pistons are probably better than theirs, the former is involved in a playoff race and the latter is last in the Eastern Conference. So when it comes down to motivation Saturday night in the Queen City, there should be no question which team is more motivated. Charlotte has also had Detroit’s number the L3 seasons, winning all nine matchups straight up (7-2 ATS) including 105-102 here back on March 11th. You may recall that I faded the Hornets their last time out, which was at Boston. That turned out to be the correct call as they lost 120-111 as 6.5-point dogs and are now 3-7 SU L10 games. Injuries (Gordon Hayward, Malik Monk, LaMelo Ball) have played a major role in the downturn, but they are still 8th in the East at 30-32 overall. Despite falling behind by 20 at the end of the first quarter and shooting just 42.5% for the game, the Hornets were still able to make it a competitive game in Boston. They should find things a lot easier tonight at home against Detroit, who is playing a lot of rookies right now. The Pistons are 3-8 SU their L11 games and lost 115-105 to Dallas Thursday despite shooting 50.7%. Virtually all of the Pistons’ wins in April came against teams that are out of playoff contention. They are a putrid 7-27 SU on the road this season and averaging only 104.4 points the L5 games overall. This is a critical stretch for Charlotte and I think they’ll start May with a big win. 10* Charlotte |
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04-29-21 | Pelicans v. Thunder +8.5 | Top | 109-95 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (9:05 ET): The Thunder snapped a 14-game losing streak by beating Boston 119-115 on Tuesday. They were 11-point road underdogs for that contest, which they led most of the way and put to bed with a 41-point fourth quarter. Now the team can pick up its first win at home this month as they host the Pelicans tonight. They’re obviously not favored to do so, but at least the Thunder now have some confidence, which is more than I can say for New Orleans, whose playoff chances seem to be fading rapidly. The Pelicans have now lost six of eight after falling in Denver last night, 114-112. They did cover the spread, but that’s merely a pyrrhic victory for a team that finds itself four games off the playoff pace in the Western Conference. Really, New Orleans should not have covered last night, let alone been in position to tie the game. They were down nine points with 52.8 seconds remaining when Denver (who is without starting PG Jamal Murray) started turning the ball over. New Orleans has only one win by more than seven points this month and that was at home. The team’s last road win by more than seven points came all the way back on February 16th! This is somewhat unprecedented territory for them to be laying so many points away from home and the Pelicans’ ATS record as a favorite this season is only 11-21. The only other time in 2020-21 they’ve been in the second of B2B road games, they lost by 28 points. Not saying OKC wins here, but they’ll keep it close. 10* Oklahoma City |
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04-28-21 | Hornets v. Celtics -7.5 | Top | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
10* Boston (7:35 ET): The Celtics are not only looking to avenge Sunday’s loss in Charlotte here, but also bounce back from a very embarrassing defeat last night where they fell, at home, to Oklahoma City. The Thunder came into Tuesday on a 14-game losing streak, so the Celtics ought to be pretty perturbed over that result. I know that both Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker were out, but that’s a game Boston HAS to win in the midst of a playoff race. HC Brad Stevens is hopeful that Tatum and Robert Williams III will be back in the lineup tonight as the team seeks to end a three-game losing streak. Regardless if either returns, I look for the Celtics to snap that losing streak and exact some revenge in the process. Charlotte, who beat Boston 125-104 on Sunday, also played last night and lost. They went down at home to Milwaukee 114-104 as 9-point underdogs. It was a 17-point deficit at halftime. While things got closer in the 4Q, the Hornets simply didn’t have enough firepower to get over the hump. Remember that they are playing without Gordon Hayward, Malik Monk and LaMelo Ball. I have been shocked that this “skeleton crew” has remained in playoff contention, although they are now a game below .500 and only one game ahead of ninth place Indiana in the East. I know things went poorly on Sunday, but given that the Celtics were 8-point favorites in Charlotte, it looks like we’re getting a major “discount” with the line here. The Hornets are 0-4 SU and ATS their last four visits to Boston. The Celtics have been struggling offensively the last several games, including shooting 11 of 49 from three-point range last night. You’ve got to think that percentage is set to improve here. At the same time, the Hornets aren’t going to shoot as well here compared to what we saw Sunday when they hit 50% overall, including 21 of 43 from 3-pt range. Charlotte has massively overachieved this year and I’m not a believer. 10* Boston |
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04-27-21 | Blazers -5 v. Pacers | Top | 133-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
10* Portland (7:05 ET): Portland has lost five in a row, three of them as favorites, while Indiana is on a three-game win streak. Yet it’s the Blazers who are favored here, on the road. How can that be? Well, Indiana is without multiple starters and the fact their three wins came against Oklahoma City, Detroit and Orlando (maybe the three worst teams in the league?) has to be accounted for. Portland’s last four losses have been to the Clippers, Denver and Memphis twice with three of them coming by a total of four points. I look for the Blazers to get back on track tonight with a big-time win. Full disclosure, I’ve openly predicted that Portland would fall out of the top six in the Western Conference and that is precisely what has happened. I can’t say I’m a big fan of a team that is 29th in defensive efficiency, but remember the Blazers were 29-18 at the start of this month. You’ve got to think Damian Lillard is going to turn things around after shooting just 34.7% his L3 games. Again, most of the Blazers’ recent losses have come in close games. Four times this month they’ve been beaten by 1 or 2 points. While Portland’s best player (Lillard) is set to improve, I can’t possibly see Indiana matching its 54.9% shooting from the Orlando game on Sunday. Nor are they going to hold the Blazers to 39.6% like they did to the Magic. The three-game win streak for the Pacers has come against teams that are a combined 57-127 SU this season and two of the teams they beat are currently on losing streaks of 6+ games. Indiana won’t have Domantas Sabonis for this game and we know Myles Turner is out as well. The Pacers are just 11-17 SU at home this season and 8-20 ATS. They are 0-2 SU/ATS off three straight wins. 10* Portland |
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04-26-21 | Cavs +10 v. Raptors | Top | 96-112 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:35 ET): The Cavs lost a tough one last night as they blew an eight-point fourth quarter lead in Washington and fell 119-110. It was a game they shot 51.3% from the field, despite not having leading scorer Collin Sexton. As an added “kick in the teeth,” they ended up not even covering the 7.5-point spread. While Sexton remains questionable for tonight (concussion) and it’s the second night of a back to back, the number looks generous here for a Cleveland team that probably feels “it should have” won on Sunday. Toronto, while better than its record, probably shouldn’t be laying this many points to anybody. Remember (that because of COVID-19) there’s no home court advantage for the Raptors this season. All “home games” have been played in Florida and this displacement has led to a 15-15 SU “home” record. Ironically, they’ve been significantly worse in "true" road games (10-20 SU), but the bottom line is that all this travel has put the team at a severe disadvantage this season. The Raptors do have a better YTD point differential than all of the teams they are chasing for a spot in the “play-in” round, but they’ve lost outright the last three times they’ve been favored by 6.5 or more points. One of those losses was to this Cleveland team. They also lost on Saturday, 120-103 at New York. In that one, the Raptors allowed 56% shooting, including 51.3% from three-point range. So there’s definitely hope for Cleveland here. Toronto is just 4-8 straight up and 3-9 against the spread following a double digit loss. In addition to losing to the Cavs last month, they've also been beaten by the Thunder and Rockets in the L30 days. Not saying the Cavs will win outright, but you definitely want to take the points here. 8* Cleveland |
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04-26-21 | Spurs -2 v. Wizards | Top | 146-143 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
10* San Antonio (7:05 ET): The Wizards extended their win streak to eight games with a 119-110 victory over Cleveland last night. But even though they were facing a weak opponent, it was by no means “an easy win.” The Cavs led much of the game and shot 51.3% from the floor despite not having their leading scorer Collin Sexton. Washington was down eight early in the fourth quarter when Bradley Beal (NBA’s 2nd leading scorer) took over. Obviously, “a win’s a win,” but it should be pointed out that even with an eight-game win streak, the Wizards are only 10th in the Eastern Conference and still six games below .500 on the year. San Antonio is also fighting for its playoff life right now. Like the Wizards, they currently occupy the last remaining slot in the “play-in round” for their conference. Winning four of five has definitely helped their cause as did Golden State losing last night. It was a key win on Sunday when the Spurs won in New Orleans, 110-108 as three-point underdogs. So they too are a “hot team” right now. The win over the Pelicans also improved them to 17-10 SU and 19-8 ATS on the road this season. They've won their last three on the road, one of those coming at Phoenix. Washington is at a disadvantage here being in the second night of a back to back. While he’s apparently fine, Beal did have a scary moment last night when he limped off the court in the final minute. The team was concerned that it might have been an Achilles injury, but that is not the case. Still, it's something worth monitoring. While the Wizards have been very successful the last two weeks, most of the wins have come against bad teams and they remain pretty horrible at the defensive end (28th in PPG allowed). I think the win streak ends here as San Antonio beat them handily (121-101) back in January. 10* San Antonio |
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04-24-21 | Spurs v. Pelicans -2 | Top | 110-108 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (8:05 ET): I can’t overstate what an important game this is for the Pelicans as they come in trailing the Spurs by 3.5 games for the final spot in the “play-in” tournament. Coming off a 35-point in Orlando (which snapped a four-game losing streak), New Orleans definitely has some confidence entering Saturday. A win tonight would at least give them the tiebreaker over the Spurs as they’d take the season series. The previous two meetings saw each team win by three at home. The Pelicans led by as many as 42 points Thursday night en route to their largest margin of victory this season. Now you can’t play the Magic every night, but San Antonio is a slightly below average team in my eyes. Despite resting several players, the Spurs did win themselves on Thursday (106-91), but that was against a Detroit team that has an even worse record than Orlando. Leading scorer DeMar DeRozan is still listed as questionable for this one and a short-handed Spurs lineup isn’t likely to be as successful tonight. I view these teams as close to even, so the 3.5 game gap in the standings is misleading. New Orleans is at home, so they deserve to be favored and I’ve got no hesitation laying the short number. They’ll have the best player on the floor (Zion Williamson). San Antonio is just 1-7 ATS off its last eight double digit wins. We saw them lose by 20 at home to Miami the last time in this situation. The Spurs’ record is actually better on the road than at home, but I’m unsold. 10* New Orleans |
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04-22-21 | Lakers v. Mavs -2 | Top | 110-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
8* Dallas (9:35 ET): The Mavs just missed out on covering the 10.5-point spread last night as they downed Detroit 127-117. It was a game they largely controlled in the second half - as they should have considering where the Pistons are in the standings. Dallas will gladly take the SU win, but it’s still six straight ATS losses for a team that had lost four in a row at home going into last night, including two to losing teams. I will point out that they led the Pistons by as many as 17 in the fourth quarter. The number is a LOT shorter tonight and I will lay it as the Mavs look to win two in a row. The big story for this game is that Anthony Davis is expected to return for the Lakers. Davis says he’s now “100% healthy,” but how effective can he be after missing 30 games? The Lakers went 14-16 SU in his absence and now trail the Nuggets by 2.5 games for fourth place. Remember there’s still no LeBron James. The team hasn’t played since Monday when they lost 111-97 to Utah. While they’ve been alternating wins and losses all month long, I just don’t like their chances here as they are only 3-8 ATS in their L11 games as an underdog. I truly believe Dallas will pass Portland for sixth place in the Western Conference. Remember how important that is as sixth place allows you to avoid the play-in round. Finishing sixth or better is a stated goal for this team, which has been vocal in its displeasure over the “play-in round.” The six straight ATS losses matches a season-high, previously set in late January. A win here would tie the Mavs with Portland for sixth place. A SU win almost certainly will equal an ATS win and I think we’re getting a real discount due to the Davis news (I don’t think he’ll be that effective). 8* Dallas |
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04-22-21 | Suns v. Celtics +5.5 | Top | 86-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
10* Boston (7:05 ET): Phoenix continues to show they deserve to be mentioned among the league’s elite as they’ve begun the most difficult road trip of the season (five games out East) with wins over Milwaukee and Philadelphia. But playing for the third time in four nights at Boston, this is hardly what I’d call a “good spot” for them. It was the narrowest of escapes last night in Philly as the Suns won 116-113 when Joel Embiid’s last second desperation heave went “in and out.” The Celtics are dealing with injuries, but are rested and have won 8 of 10. Take the points here. Boston’s six-game win streak came to a bit of a shocking end Monday as they fell here at home to Chicago, 102-96 as 4.5-point chalk. The team had also previously covered four in a row. Two 18 point quarters doomed the Celtics and they were outscored by 14 in the third. But this team is still a solid 18-11 SU at home and could really use the win here as they are locked into a tight three-way battle for fourth place with the Knicks and Hawks. Not finishing sixth is imperative as it would allow the Celts to avoid the three Eastern Conference heavyweights in the first round of the playoffs. Both Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart missed Monday’s loss. They are expected back in the Boston lineup tonight. The team is less optimistic about Jaylen Brown (doubtful) while Jayson Tatum has said he WILL play. Regardless, this is a really good value on a team that isn’t a home dog very often. Phoenix was only a three-point favorite when they hosted the Celtics back in February. They could be excused for an “off-night” here considering the situation and they’ve got another back to back upcoming with the Nets/Knicks. Winning all these games isn’t going to happen. 10* Boston |
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04-21-21 | Wolves v. Kings -4.5 | Top | 125-128 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
8* Sacramento (10:05 ET): Here we go again, fading the T’wolves off a win. It’s been about the surest bet in the NBA this season. Since starting 2-0, Minnesota has not won back to back games at any point. They are 0-14 SU off a win since that 2-0 start, going 2-11-1 ATS as well. They are being outscored by about 15 PPG in this situation. The last time they were off a win was Sunday and I faded them in Los Angeles (against the Clippers) in what turned out to be a 124-105 loss. They won last night here in Sacramento, 134-120 as 3.5-point underdogs, so there’s only one way to play this matchup from where I sit. Given all the information listed above, it would be quite embarrassing for the Kings at home B2B days and for a third time this month to the T’wolves. Certainly, little has gone right for Sacramento over the last month as they’ve lost 10 of 11 to play themselves right out of the playoff race. But I can’t see Minnesota shooting 56.7% from the field again (like they did last night). The Kings actually led going into the fourth quarter, which is when everything began to fall apart. They scored just 17 points over the final 12 minutes and were on the wrong end of a 17-3 run down the stretch. When the T’wolves are off a SU win as a dog, they are 0-12 SU the next game and 2-10 ATS. In the second night of a back to back, they are getting outscored by 9.2 PPG this season. They entered yday tied with Houston for the worst SU record in the league. The Kings are surely better than how they’ve played of late and will be desperate to win at home for the first time this month. Given the situation at hand, I’ll make the RARE move to lay points with them. 8* Sacramento |
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04-20-21 | Magic +12.5 v. Hawks | Top | 96-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:35 ET): The Magic are obviously a team in complete disarray right now, but this is a massive number for the Hawks to be laying at the betting window. Even though they’ve won 8 of 10, Atlanta still has only two wins by more than 12 points this month and both were against New Orleans. This is a more familiar opponent, one that has won and covered six of the previous nine meetings. When these teams played last month in Orlando, it was only a three-point win for the Hawks. They did cover as 2.5-point chalk, but the line has obviously grown significantly larger for tonight’s rematch. Orlando has just one win in its last nine games (115-106 at Chicago on 4/14) and now is the “proud owner” of the worst point differential in the Eastern Conference. Perhaps “rock bottom” occurred on Sunday night when they lost at home to a Rockets team that has won only four games since Feb 4. While I do not expect the Magic to win tonight’s game, I do expect them to keep it close. It was really just one bad quarter that killed them Sunday and they still only ended up losing by four. The Magic are 5-2 ATS L7 as road dogs. Atlanta has been asked to lay double digits only one other time all season and that came all the way back on December 28th against the Pistons. They won that game, but only by eight points. Subsequently, there have been only a handful of times where they’ve had to lay seven or more points. Twice they lost outright. That they blew all of a 20-point lead against Indiana Sunday night is a concern, even though they still wound up winning that game by 12. The Hawks have a bigger game tomorrow night at New York to worry about. Take the points. 10* Orlando |
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04-19-21 | Cavs v. Pistons +2.5 | Top | 105-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
10* Detroit (7:05 ET): The Pistons couldn’t be further from the success of the legendary “Bad Boys” of the late 1980’s or even the teams from 15-17 years ago. They have basically spent the entire year in last place in the Eastern Conference. Their current record is 17-40 SU and they’ve dropped four of five following a 21-point setback (121-100) in D.C. on Saturday. But I just can’t understand why they’d be getting points, at home, from a Cleveland team who has a far more negative point differential. Yes, the Cavs have a better SU record. But this is just the third time they will be a road favorite in 2020-21. I know the Pistons are currently fielding a VERY young lineup. A majority of the veterans are dealing with injuries, so they will be resting tonight. It’s not like the team was doing that well with those players on the floor, so I don’t really view this as a negative. While the Pistons were blown out by a surging Wizards team over the weekend, this is basically the same starting lineup that beat Oklahoma City here at home on Friday. While the Thunder are 30th (last) in my personal power rankings, the Cavs are 29th. So this is a very winnable game for a Detroit team that’s already 16-5 ATS this season when off a double digit loss. This is also a big revenge game for the Pistons. They are 0-2 vs. the Cavs in 2020-21 (and 0-9 SU in all division games!). The day after X-Mas saw the Pistons blow a late lead and lose in double overtime. Then it was a rare hot shooting night for Cleveland (at home) in the second meeting. The Cavs have a per game point differential of -7.3 (Detroit just -3.8, which is actually better than three teams in the East, including the Wizards). I just faded the Cavs as a short road dog against a Chicago team that had dropped five in a row and that turned out to be an easy win. Cleveland has also lost four of five and should NOT be favored in this one. 10* Detroit |
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04-18-21 | Wolves v. Clippers -10 | Top | 105-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (10:05 ET): The Clippers are off a rare loss (106-103 at Philadelphia) while Minnesota is off an even rarer win (119-111 over Miami). Typically, this is a tremendous spot to bet against the T’wolves. Not only have they failed to win B2B games since a 2-0 start to the season, they are 2-10-1 ATS off their previous 13 SU victories. When off a win this season, the T’wolves are being outscored by 12.6 points per game. The last time, they lost by 30 at Brooklyn. They are a league-worst 5-23 SU on the road and the last two away games have seen them surrender 141 and 145 points. The Clippers had won seven in a row before losing in Philly Friday night. Playing without Kawhi Leonard for the fourth straight time, they fell behind early (trailed by 11 after one quarter) and had no answer for Joel Embiid, who had 36 points and 14 rebounds. But they still made a game of it. Leonard is questionable for tonight, but Paul George has been the best player in the Western Conference over the last week and the opponent is as weak as it gets here. The last time the Clips hosted Minnesota, they won by 23. They are 22-8 SU at home this season and also beat the T’wolves by seven on the road in February. Minnesota was a seven-point dog in Friday’s upset win over Miami. When off a SU win as a dog, they are 0-11 SU/2-9 ATS the next time out. Not only did they recently lose to the Nets by 30, they also lost by 25 to the Bucks. I bring those results up because those are top tier teams like the Clippers. The T’wolves are allowing 122.1 PPG when off a SU win and here they are facing the league’s most efficient offense. After a SU loss, LA is 14-4 SU/12-6 ATS with a point differential of +9.9 PPG. 10* LA Clippers |
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04-17-21 | Cavs v. Bulls -1.5 | Top | 96-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
10* Chicago (8:05 ET): When the Bulls traded for Nikola Vucevic last month, it was supposed to lead to a charge up the Eastern Conference standings. Instead, the team is now 3-9 SU since that trade and on a five-game losing streak (also 0-5 ATS) following last night’s defeat at the hands of Memphis. Obviously, leading scorer Zach LaVine being in COVID protocol doesn’t help. But recent losses to the likes of Orlando and Minnesota are downright inexcusable when in the stretch run. As ugly as things have gotten here in the Windy City, I just can’t see the Bulls losing at home tonight to lowly Cleveland. The Cavaliers are actually just two games back of the Bulls, which should be a major wake-up call for the home team tonight. The Cavs are very much a bottom five team in the league, despite their “closeness” to the Bulls in the standings right now. I make that statement based on their YTD point differential and net efficiency rating. Cleveland is the worst offensive team in the NBA on a per game and per possession basis. If Chicago can’t win this one, they really ought to be ashamed of themselves. The last time these teams met was last month and the Cavs did win here in Chicago, 103-94 as 7.5-point underdogs. But as you can see, we’re getting a MUCH shorter line with the home team in this one. The Bulls were just 28.6% from three-point range in that last meeting, a number I expect them to improve upon tonight. Cleveland has lost 8 of 11 since beating the Bulls, so they’re in no better shape. I can’t see the Bulls’ defense being as bad as it was in the 2H last night. This is a classic “buy low” spot. 10* Chicago |
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04-16-21 | Pacers +9.5 v. Jazz | Top | 111-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
8* Indiana (3:05 ET): We’ve got a rare weekday afternoon game in Salt Lake City Friday as the Jazz host the Pacers. Utah still has the best overall record in the league (41-14 SU), however they’ve gone just 3-3 their last six games and were very short-handed in Tuesday’s 106-96 win over sorry Oklahoma City. Three players were out, and as a result the Jazz actually fell behind the Thunder by as many as 17 points. Only seven players ended up scoring, but that ended up being enough to get the win. As of this writing, it’s unclear how many of the three injured players (O’Neale, Ingles, Clarkson) will return tonight. Conversely, Indiana had a MUCH easier time in its last game. They led wire to wire in a 132-124 win at Houston. That was the fourth win in the last five games as the Pacers try to lock down a spot for the postseason (which begins next month). Currently 8th in the East, Indiana has shown more offense these L5 games, averaging 126.2 PPG. They typically have NOT performed well ATS when coming off a high-scoring effort, but it’s also rare to find them getting as many points as they are here. While winning in Salt Lake City is tough, the Pacers do sport a 17-12 SU road record this season, which is pretty good. Also, the Jazz did just lose here at home, 125-121 to Washington on Monday night. That snapped a 24-game home win streak. They’ll likely still be short-handed here and the Pacers make for their toughest opponent in over a week. (The Jazz’s L3 games have been against Sacramento, Washington and OKC). The Pacers were able to keep it close (lost by 8) when the teams played last month. I think they do the same again here. 8* Indiana |
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04-15-21 | Kings +12 v. Suns | Top | 114-122 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
10* Sacramento (10:05 ET): Obviously, this does not seem like the ideal spot for the Kings to end an ugly eight game losing skid. After all, they are in the second night of a back to back and facing a team that is second in the Western Conference. Last night saw them drop a home game to the Wizards, 123-111 as two-point underdogs. While I don’t think they can beat the Suns, I do think this is a generous number for a battle of division opponents. It’s more than the Kings were getting when they traveled to Utah last week. Utah is the only team ahead of Phoenix right now in the Western Conference, though the red hot Clippers are hot on the Suns’ heels. Two nights ago I laid a much shorter number with the Suns here at home and they rolled to an impressive 106-86 win over Miami. But an odd trend has developed with Phoenix over the last three weeks; they’ve failed to cover B2B games even one time. They are 0-6 ATS off their previous six ATS wins and while they’ve suffered only one straight up defeat during that time (Clippers), this is a big number to cover. The last two times Phoenix has been off an ATS win and laying double digits, they were playing Houston. Both times they failed to cover as they won those games by only three and six points. After an ATS win, the Suns are only +4.8 PPG this season. So expect this one to be closer than the oddsmakers (and public) think as Sacramento is desperate for something resembling a competent performance and should turn one in here. 10* Sacramento |
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04-13-21 | Heat v. Suns -3 | Top | 86-106 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (10:05 ET): The Suns used a big 1st half, which included a NBA record 18 made three-pointers, to roll to a 126-120 victory last night over Houston. The good news is that the hot start enabled them to go on “cruise control” down the stretch, important since they were in the front end of this back to back. The bad news is for anyone who bet them as a 23-point halftime advantage wound up shrinking down to six by the final whistle as the Suns failed to cover as 12.5-point favorites. I’ll “swoop in” tonight though and take them laying a much shorter number. Since the start of March, Miami has been very hot and cold. They went on a five-game winning streak, then a six-game losing streak and are now 6-1 SU their L7 games. Sunday night, the Heat began what will be a four-game road trip with a 107-98 win in Portland. As is the case with Phoenix here, the Blazers were in the second night of a back to back. Miami actually built a 20-point lead early in the fourth quarter. But this is a much more challenging opponent set for Tuesday as the Suns are 30-8 their L38 games including 8-1 L9. Phoenix is 2nd in the Western Conference, just 1.5 games behind Utah, who lost last night. While the Heat have had the Suns’ number in the past (20-6 ATS L26 head to head meetings, 11-1 ATS L12 here in Phoenix), the last two matchups have gone Phoenix’s way. That includes a 110-100 win in Miami last month as two-point favorites. Though the Heat are in fifth place in the Eastern Conference, they still have a negative point differential on the season. The Suns don’t have to travel for this back to back (last night’s game was also at home) and they are 5-1 SU this season in the 2nd of B2B home games, winning by an average of 9.3 PPG. They are the much better side here. 10* Phoenix |
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04-13-21 | Clippers -3 v. Pacers | Top | 126-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (7:35 ET): If Kawhi Leonard was playing tonight, this line would obviously be higher. But even after factoring in Leonard’s absence and the Pacers’ home court “advantage,” the number looks a little low to me. The Clippers are a hot team right now as they’ve won five in a row by an average of nearly 14 points per game. Keeping up with the Jazz and Suns is imperative. Without Kawhi, they were able to defeat Detroit 131-124 on Sunday. As I’ll get into momentarily, Indiana’s home record is shockingly poor. While the Clippers are trying to inch closer to the top of the Western Conference, Indiana is just trying to remain relevant in the Eastern Conference. Right now, the Pacers are in 9th place and that’s with a three-game win streak coming into tonight. Those wins - which were against Minnesota, Orlando and Memphis - have them within two games of .500. The mediocre overall won-loss record is largely owed to the fact they are 9-15 SU (7-17 ATS) at home, one of the worst such records in the entire league this year. So there’s really no “home court advantage” for the Pacers here. Myles Turner is out for them and defensively there are issues with two of the last three opponents scoring at least 125. The Clippers are #1 in the league in offensive efficiency and while not having Leonard hurts a little, they still have Paul George, who went for 32 against the Pistons. When these teams met in January, the Clippers ran away with a 129-96 victory as seven different players finished in double figures. 8* LA Clippers |
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04-10-21 | Rockets v. Warriors -8.5 | Top | 109-125 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
10* Golden State (10:05 ET): I didn’t have many positive things to say about the Warriors when I faded them yesterday. Sure enough, they ended up losing outright (here at home) to the Wizards 110-107 as 4.5-point chalk. So why would I turn around 24 hours later and lay an even bigger number with the Dubs? Well, look at who they’re hosting. Houston also played last night and was a double digit loser to the Clippers (126-109). That was the Rockets’ 28th loss in their last 31 games. They’ve covered the spread only seven times during that stretch. In yday’s analysis, I mentioned that GS isn’t favored all that often. But the result against the Wizards aside, the Warriors usually win when laying points. They were 13-5 SU in the chalk role going into Friday. Now they have lost 8 of the last 10 games overall as they are fighting just to hold on to a spot in the “play-in” round of the postseason. Their lead over the 11th place Pelicans has dwindled to a single game. If Steph Curry and company don’t get this ship righted, then they could be the “odd team out.” Just last month, the Warriors beat the Rockets by 14 in Houston. They closed as 11-point favorites for the game, so this spread looks like a bargain by comparison. The Rockets were outscored 41-10 in the second quarter last night, which tells you all you need to know about what they are going through. Meanwhile, the Warriors were winning their game with less than 10 seconds remaining. I may not have trusted the Dubs last night, but I do here. 10* Golden State |
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04-09-21 | Wizards +4.5 v. Warriors | Top | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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04-08-21 | Blazers +7 v. Jazz | Top | 103-122 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
10* Portland (10:05 ET): A REAL tough spot for Utah here. They just lost in overtime to Phoenix last night, which was a significant result as it shrank the Jazz’s lead atop the Western Conference to 1.5 games. Yes, Utah still has the best record in the NBA and this is only the second time they’ve been off B2B losses since early January. But laying this many points to a sneaky Portland team, even at home, seems like a tough ask. I’m taking the points in this one. The Blazers are currently sixth in the West, 10 games over .500 despite a slightly negative point differential for the season. Normally, I’d be looking to fade a team with that kind of resume, but the situation is favorable here and they are getting a lot of points. While Portland has suffered an alarming number of blowout losses this season, such as the 17-point one they took at the hands of the Clippers Tuesday, they are 16-8 ATS off an ATS loss. They have not suffered B2B double digit losses at any point this season. Furthermore, Portland has dropped B2B games only one time since the beginning of March. I realize Utah has won 22 straight home games, but this is one they can lose. Given that mentality, why wouldn’t you take the points? 10* Portland |
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04-07-21 | Hornets -4.5 v. Thunder | Top | 113-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (8:05 ET): I can’t say that I’m all that excited about the Hornets’ long-term prospects as they are dealing with multiple key injuries right now. Their YTD point differential and net efficiency rating (both negative) indicate that they’ve been a pretty clear overachiever to this point. But they are 5th in the Eastern Conference and you’ve got to give them credit for that. Tonight they are at Oklahoma City to face a Thunder team in even worse shape right now. I’ll lay the points! The Thunder have lost three in a row and it has been ugly. The three losses have all been by 24 points or more and they’re playing no defense with 132 or more points allowed in every game. They lost by 37 at Phoenix and 44 at Portland before losing by 24 at home to Detroit (who has the worst record in the Eastern Conference) on Monday. I had the Over in that game vs. the Pistons and OKC allowed Detroit to score a season-high 132 points. Like Charlotte, OKC is dealing with multiple absences from the rotation right now. Charlotte’s scoring average has come way down the L5 games as they are without LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward and Malik Monk. But the Thunder’s woeful defense should allow for some significant improvement at the offensive end tonight. Meanwhile, I just don’t see much in the way of improvement coming for OKC as they’ve not only dropped three straight, but six of seven and 8 of 11. The Hornets are 4-0 ATS L4 as road favorites and 20-5-1 ATS L26 road games against teams with a losing home record. OKC is 9-16 SU at home. 10* Charlotte |
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04-06-21 | 76ers v. Celtics +1.5 | Top | 106-96 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:35 ET): The 76ers have once again ceded the top spot in the Eastern Conference to the Nets. Brooklyn won last night while Philly lost by 16 at home to Memphis on Sunday. That was the fourth time they failed to cover in the last five games, a stretch where the only two SU wins have come against Cleveland and Minnesota - arguably the two worst teams in the entire NBA. Tonight the Sixers find themselves in Boston, facing a Celtics team that’s coming off B2B home victories. It was a very easy win for the Celtics on Sunday as they blew past injury-riddled Charlotte 116-86 as 9.5-point chalk. Six players, including the entire starting five, finished in double figures and the team made 21 three-pointers. It was also a solid effort at the defensive end, holding the Hornets to 40% overall, including 10 of 31 on 3PA. While only 7th in the East, Boston is only a game out of 4th place. You would assume they’re going to move up the standings before the playoffs begin. They cannot afford any kind of letdown. Adding to the motivation here is the fact this is a double revenge spot for the Celtics. They lost twice down in Philadelphia back in January. Each time they blew a halftime lead. Now the Sixers are without Joel Embiid (still) and he was the dominant presence on the court in those two January meetings. Philly actually trailed Memphis by 26 points heading into the fourth quarter Sunday (again, that was at home!) and they are not a particularly great road team (17-36-3 ATS L53). 8* Boston |
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04-03-21 | Houston +5 v. Baylor | Top | 59-78 | Loss | -104 | 53 h 49 m | Show |
10* Houston (5:14 ET): The National Semifinal that will have more intrigue (regarding the outcome) is an all-Texas affair between Baylor (1-seed from the South Region) and Houston (2-seed from the Midwest Region). I had both teams getting here, so this matchup is not a surprise. Much will be made of the fact that Houston did not have to defeat a team seeded higher than 10th in any of the first four rounds. But it would be quite foolish to undersell this squad. They have won 11 consecutive games with seven of those victories coming by a margin of 16 points or more. This will be just the second time all season the Cougars are underdogs. The first was all the way back on 11/29 vs. Texas Tech and they won that game 64-53 as three-point pups. Houston’s calling card remains their defense. They are #2 in the country in points per game allowed (57.6). None of the other teams in the Final Four rank higher than 62nd in PPG allowed. The Cougars are also #1 in the country in field goal percentage defense. Opponents have shot just 37.3% against them this season. In the four tournament wins, they’ve allowed an average of only 55.75 PPG. There have been only two times during the 11-game win streak that they allowed more than 61 points. Both were against Memphis. Simply put, when you’re not giving up many points, more often than not you will win. In this case, Houston is GETTING points. The key here (for me) is that Houston is a perfect 10-0 SU/9-0-1 ATS coming off an ATS loss. They probably “should” have covered for us vs. Oregon State in the Elite 8 as they led 34-17 at halftime. But they let the lead shrink in the 2H, then allowed a “meaningless” three-pointer in the closing seconds to blow the cover. I told you to take the Cougars the last time they were off an ATS loss (this was in the Sweet 16 vs. Syracuse) and they won that game by 16 points. Coming off an ATS loss this year, UH has won all ten times by an average of 28.1 PPG! Absolutely take the points here. 10* Houston |
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04-02-21 | Bucks v. Blazers +3.5 | Top | 127-109 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
8* Portland (10:05 ET): The Blazers have overachieved a bit in getting to 11 games over .500. I say that based on the fact they’ve actually given up more points this season than they have scored. Typically, you won’t find a team with a negative YTD point differential sitting 11 games over .500. But there’s no denying the fact the Blazers are in better shape now than they’ve been at any point this season. Both CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic are back in the lineup and the team has won four in a row. Milwaukee has the best point differential and net efficiency rating among Eastern Conference teams, but they are still only third in the standings. So you can make the case they’ve underachieved. They did snap a three-game losing streak Wednesday, but that win came against the depleted Lakers so it’s not like it could be called “impressive.” Prior to that, the Bucks were just 1-6 ATS their L7 games and what’s been concerning is some of their defensive efforts. They are allowing 114.8 PPG on the road this season. There are times when I’d look at how these teams have performed relative to their metrics and say it’s time for things to “balance out.” But this isn’t one of those times. Portland is coming off a 4-0 road trip (averaged 120.8 PPG) and is 7-2 SU its L9 games overall. Getting points with them at home looks to be a very nice value Friday night. The Bucks are just 2-7 ATS this year in games where the total is 230 or higher. The Blazers just turned in a 73-point second half in their most recent game, so take the points. 8* Portland |
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04-02-21 | Wolves v. Grizzlies -6.5 | Top | 108-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
10* Memphis (8:05 ET): You probably don’t need me to tell you that Minnesota has been pretty dreadful this season. Stuck in last place in the Western Conference, the T’wolves’ only shot at escaping the basement is if Houston continues to tank. The T’wolves are off a win, 102-101 over the Knicks on Wednesday night, but that makes for an excellent time to fade as not only are they 1-10 SU this season off a win, but they are 3-7-1 ATS and been outscored by an average of 11.8 PPG in this situation. The one time that Minny won B2B games was when they started the season 2-0! Since then, it’s been 10 consecutive SU losses when off a win. Last time they were in this spot, they lost by 22 … to the Rockets (!) That was after beating the Rockets the previous night. Memphis is well-positioned to “step in” and do some damage here as they’ve covered six of their last seven contests. While only 4-3 SU in those same seven, all three losses were to the first place Jazz. Two of the three losses were by four points or less. The Grizzlies actually led the Jazz going into the 4Q here at home on Wednesday. They were obviously unable to hold that advantage, despite getting 36 (points) from Ja Morant, but it was still a solid effort. With them now favored, we need more than just a “solid effort” here, but considering how the team really needs the win to get back to .500 and move closer to the top eight in the West, I think we’ll get the Grizz at their best here. They easily defeated the T’wolves back in January, 118-107, and are 7-1 ATS against them the L3 seasons. Lay the points. 10* Memphis |
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03-31-21 | Heat -1.5 v. Pacers | Top | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
10* Miami (7:05 ET): The Heat ended a 6-game losing streak on Monday with a 98-88 win in New York. They go for two (wins) in a row tonight in Indiana. I think it’s important to remember that prior to the six-game losing skid, the Heat had won 12 of 13 games. The vast majority of those six losses were close games. Two were to the Pacers, one of which was NOT close. They were both at home. So this is a big-time double revenge spot as Miami not only looks to stay in front of Indiana, but also move up the standings in the depth-shy Eastern Conference. The Pacers are off a 132-124 loss (as seven-point favorites) to the Wizards. They’d won four of five before that, including the two wins over Miami. The first saw them shoot the lights out (58.4 FG% including 20 of 33 from 3-pt range) while the second game went to OT. Prior to winning four of five, the Pacers went through a 2-8 stretch themselves, so they’ve had their own struggles. They are only 8-12 SU at home this season (6-14 ATS). In addition to that, they have one of the league’s worst overall ATS marks. The loss on Monday doesn’t bode well as Indiana is 0-3 ATS this season coming off a game where they allowed 130+ points. Miami isn’t quite at full strength, but they’re close. The recently acquired Victor Oladipo is ill and not expected to play here. But Goran Dragic returned to the lineup Monday after missing four games. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo combined for 47 points against the Knicks (Adebayo had 18 rebounds too) while Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro combined for 32 more. It was one of the Heat’s better defensive efforts this season and after the six-game slide, I believe this team is due to start turning things around in a positive direction. The double revenge angle is strong here and the Pacers won’t shoot the ball the way they did in the first meeting. The Pacers have also given up 132 or more in two of their last four games. 10* Miami |
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03-30-21 | USC +8.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 66-85 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
8* USC (7:15 ET): Southern Cal promises to be the toughest test for Gonzaga (29-0 SU) this season. While the Zags do hold early season victories over the likes of Iowa and Kansas, neither of those teams play defense the way the Trojans do. Ironically, USC could have faced both Iowa and Kansas on their path to the Elite 8. But the Hawkeyes got bounced early. Kansas was USC’s 2nd round opponent and was no match as the Trojans won that game “going away” 85-51 (as 1-pt favorites) in what may have been the most impressive single-game effort I’ve seen in the Tournament thus far. In addition to destroying Kansas, USC has beaten 11th seeded Drake and 7-seed Oregon to get here. As I alluded to above, it has been their defense that has led the way. After watching them hold both Drake and Kansas below 30% shooting, I had no choice but to roll with the Trojans in the Sweet 16. Same as their regular season matchup against the Ducks, they rolled to a big first half lead and coasted from there. Not only did USC hold Oregon to 37.7% shooting (including 5 of 21 from 3-pt range), but they shot 57.4% themselves (10 of 14 from three). They’ve now shot better than 50% from the floor each of their L4 games. Gonzaga is obviously the best offensive/overall team in the country, but they’ve failed to hit their season average in PPG in six of the last seven contests. The Bulldogs actually generate a very high percentage of their offense from two-pointers, which could be a problem here as USC has held opponents to 41.5% on 2PA this season, which is #1 in the country! USC has been an underdog only five times this season and never by more than +3.5. This is a lot of points for the #4 ranked defensive team in the country to be getting. The fact this is Gonzaga’s first single digit spread since December is significant. 8* USC |
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03-29-21 | Arkansas +8 v. Baylor | Top | 72-81 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
8* Arkansas (9:57 ET): The Razorbacks have certainly been “living dangerously” in this Tournament as they’ve won their last two games by two points each. They also trailed Colgate early in the first round. But this Elite Eight matchup with Baylor marks the first time in Tourney that the Hogs have been underdogs and I’m grabbing the points as this line has been bet up. Arkansas has a higher defensive efficiency rating compared to Baylor and I believe is due to “break out” offensively tonight. Arkansas averages 81.7 PPG, but they’ve gone Under in five straight while being held below that season average four times. The only time in the Tournament they exceeded their season average in points per game was against Colgate. But it will be a shock to Baylor’s system to face a team that likes to play at such a fast tempo. Per KenPom, the Razorbacks play at the 17th fastest pace in the country. Baylor’s last two opponents - Wisconsin and Villanova - were 329th and 336rd in adjusted tempo, which is as slow as it gets. Arkansas made just one three-pointer in its 72-70 win over Oral Roberts. They average seven makes from behind the arc per game, for the season. That’s not a ton, but it’s more than one. They only attempted nine three-pointers vs. Oral Roberts, a really low number. Baylor kept Villanova to 3 of 19 in three-point shooting Saturday, a very low number. So at the same time Arkansas’ 3-point shooting is set to improve, Baylor’s three-point defense is set to regress. Expect this to be a close game. 8* Arkansas |
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03-29-21 | Raptors -4.5 v. Pistons | Top | 104-118 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
8* Toronto (8:05 ET): It’s been a miserable March for the Raptors, who are now 1-11 SU this month. Last night saw them waste a 41-point first quarter as they lost 122-117 at home to Portland. But it is worth mentioning that I was with Toronto in their lone win this month, which occurred last Wednesday when they vanquished a good Denver team by a score of 135-111. Last night was the fifth time this month that the Raptors lost a game by five points or less. Their point differential & net efficiency rating for the year both suggest they should be much better than 10 games below .500. So I’ll back them again here. Detroit is still in last place in the Eastern Conference, a spot they’ve occupied for most of this season. They’ve lost four in a row and while they played both Indiana and Brooklyn tough, they also lost by 14 to Chicago and Washington. Scoring only 92 points against the Wizards should be considered a huge embarrassment. As was the fact the Pistons trailed by as many as 30 points in that game. They only made things a little closer once Bradley Beal, the NBA’s leading scorer, exited the game with an injury. This is the third time this month that these teams have played. As you can ascertain from the info given above, the Raptors lost both times. I know times are tough, but how can someone look at themselves in the mirror after losing to the likes of the Pistons three times in one month? Detroit is just 1-8 SU otherwise in March. Toronto was favored by 7.5 and 6.5 in those two games, so we’re getting a bit of value here. Detroit shot abnormally well (above 51% overall and 32 of 70 from 3-pt range), which I don’t see happening again tonight. The Pistons are just 2-8 SU L10 games despite allowing only 107.5 PPG. 8* Toronto |
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03-29-21 | Oregon State v. Houston -7.5 | Top | 61-67 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
10* Houston (7:15 ET): This “madness” (pun intended!) with Oregon State MUST come to an end. The Beavers, picked to finish LAST in their conference (Pac 12) this season, are somehow one of the final eight teams left in the NCAA Tournament. Had it not been for winning the Pac 12 Tournament, OSU wouldn’t have even qualified for the Big Dance and they are now just the second-ever 12 seed to make the Elite 8. They’ve been a covering machine as well: 6-0 ATS L6, 13-1 ATS L14 and 19-2-1 ATS L22. But I feel it all comes to an end here against a vastly superior Houston side. The Cougars are on the verge of their first Final Four since the Phi Slamma Jamma days of the early 80s. Incredibly, they won’t have to defeat a team seeded higher than 10th to get there. Having benefited from some upsets, Kelvin Sampson’s team has beaten Cleveland State, Rutgers and Syracuse to get here. I had them in the Sweet 16 as they locked in defensively and beat the Orange 62-46. They allowed a shooting percentage of just 28.0% for the game, including 21.7 from three-point range. Fourth in the country in defensive efficiency, those are the kind of defensive numbers I’m looking for here from the Cougars. Oregon State has been incredibly fortunate from three-point range during their six-game win streak, going 50 of 120 (41.7%) themselves while the opponents have shot just 30 for 142 (21.1%). Houston is #2 in the country in points allowed (57.5 PPG) and teams have shot just 28.0% from 3-point range against them for the season. As I said in the writeup vs. Syracuse (another team that was on a 6-0 ATS run), Houston is a team that’s been winning big. Seven of their last 10 victories have been by 16 or more points. 10* Houston |
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03-28-21 | Oregon v. USC -1.5 | Top | 68-82 | Win | 100 | 79 h 12 m | Show |
8* USC (9:45 ET): So we’ve got a matchup of conference rivals in the Sweet 16 as USC takes on Oregon. It’s been a great Tournament thus far for the Pac 12 as they placed four teams in the Sweet 16. USC is the only one favored to make it to the Elite 8, however. As you may have guessed, these teams did meet in the regular season (just once). The Trojans prevailed 72-58 and really it wasn’t even that close as they led 43-22 at the half. I think USC is the much better team here and will gladly lay the short number in the rematch. Oregon caught quite the break as they didn’t even have to play a 1st round game. Their scheduled opponent, VCU, was forced to withdraw due to COVID-19. The Ducks took full advantage of that “bye” by then going out and blitzing 2-seed Iowa 95-80 in an upset as 5-point underdogs. For the fourth time in the last five games, the Ducks shot better than 55% from the field (55.9%), which is remarkable. But I don’t think they’ll have that kind of “touch” here against a USC team that has held its first two Tournament opponents below 30% from the field. It has been two dominant efforts on the defensive end from the Trojans. They held Drake to 56 points and then Kansas to 51. For the year, their opposing FG% is 38.7, which is just fantastic. The Trojans also tend to dominate on the glass, something Oregon knows all too well as it was outrebounded 39-25 in the first meeting. Annihilating Kansas by 34 should garner more respect in the marketplace than it has as USC is very much a team that “deserves” to be in the Elite 8 as I consider them to be a top 10 team in the country. They were underseeded. 8* USC |
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03-28-21 | Creighton +13.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 65-83 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 42 m | Show |
8* Creighton (2:10 ET): I’m gonna “take the bait” (i.e. the points) here against #1 Gonzaga. Full disclosure - this did NOT work well when I took Norfolk State in the first round of the Tournament. But at least now we’ve got a team that has a chance to win. Not that I think Creighton will win, but I see the Bluejays keeping this one within single digits. I used them in the last round when they blew past Ohio 72-58 and really it shouldn’t have even been that close. Creighton is 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season, by the way. The most points they were getting in any game was +5.5 at Villanova. Through their first two games of the Tournament, I’ve seen nothing to dissuade me from thinking (like everybody else) that Gonzaga is the “team to beat.” They annihilated Norfolk State in Round 1, 98-55 as a 33-point favorite, then beat Oklahoma 87-71 and covered the 14-point spread there. That win over Oklahoma extends the Zags’ perfect SU record on the season to 28-0 and the last 25 victories have all been by double digits. But, according to my current power ratings, Creighton will be the best team that the Zags have faced all season besides Iowa, whom they defeated by “only” 11 points. My power ratings say this spread should be several points lower. The key is that Creighton can score. The Bluejays average 76.3 PPG. They really haven’t shot the ball well - so far - in the Tournament. But that can change. They have lost only two games by double digits all season. Six of the eight losses were by eight points or less, half of those by five or less. Creighton is 12-4 ATS when coming off a game where they allowed 60 points or less. Look for this to be “closer than the experts think” on Sunday. 8* Creighton |
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03-27-21 | Syracuse v. Houston -6 | Top | 46-62 | Win | 100 | 55 h 23 m | Show |
8* Houston (9:55 ET): One quarter of this year’s Sweet 16 are double digit seeds and two of those four teams reside in the Midwest Region. Both are from P5 conferences, so these aren’t “Cinderellas” in the true sense of the term. That said, I certainly did not expect to see Syracuse still standing at this juncture of the Tournament. The Orange have upset 6-seed San Diego State and 3-seed West Virginia to get here and are on a 6-0 ATS run, the lone SU loss in that stretch coming by three points to Virginia in the ACC Tournament. Houston was my pick to come out of this region, so I’m not at all surprised to see them still playing. With the top seed in the Midwest (Illinois) out, I think you’ve got to make the Cougars the favorites to move on to the Final Four. They certainly made it look easy in the first round when they absolutely buried Cleveland State 87-56 (were 20.5-pt favorites), but it was a lot tougher against Rutgers in the second round. They ended up winning 63-60 (were -7), but had to rally to do so. The Cougars have lost only three games this season and the last one was over a month ago at Wichita State. They come into the Sweet 16 on a nine-game win streak and the good news is they often follow a close win with a blowout. Of the nine consecutive victories, three have been by exactly three points each. But the other six wins were all by 24 points or more! Houston is 8-0 ATS this season off an ATS loss, winning those games by an average of nearly 30 PPG! This is a really good team. Most don’t know it yet, but they will after Saturday as Syracuse’s 76.1 PPG allowed when away from home remains a concern. The Orange have shot above 53% overall in the Tournament thus far, but I don’t see that happening here against a team that gives up only 57.9 PPG (#2 in the country). 8* Houston |
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03-27-21 | Bulls v. Spurs -3 | Top | 104-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
10* San Antonio (8:35 ET): In the wake of a big trade that yielded Nikola Vucevic, most are going to want to take the Bulls in this spot. But I’m not necessarily “buying the hype” … yet. While it’s true Chicago does now have two All-Star caliber players (Vucevic, Zach LaVine), it’s going to take time for all the new pieces to gel (they made some other moves as well). They haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since early in January and just lost to lowly Cleveland in their last game. They’ve lost four of five overall, only breaking 100 points once during that stretch. San Antonio has lost four in a row, the last three of which were here at home. This is a season-long nine-game homestand, so they need to start taking advantage if they want to hold onto their current spot. I will point out that three of the Spurs’ four losses have come against either the Bucks or Clippers. The second game vs. the Clips saw them struggle offensively down the stretch. That was too bad as they held LA to 38.2% shooting for the game. San Antonio is still 8th in the West, two games above .500. That’s better than Chicago, who is five games below .500 and in 10th in the weaker East. Acquiring Vucevic has brought increased optimism in the Windy City, but I remain unsold. The Bulls are a horrendous 2-15 SU/5-12 ATS vs. teams that have winning records. Last time they faced one, they lost by 25. Granted that was the Jazz, but it was also at home as was the loss to Cleveland. Can’t see the Spurs losing four in a row at home and the line looks short to me. 10* San Antonio |
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03-27-21 | Oral Roberts v. Arkansas -11 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 48 m | Show |
10* Arkansas (7:25 ET): For just the second time in the NCAA Tournament’s history, a 15-seed has made it to the Sweet 16. The other was Florida Gulf Coast in 2013, a run which ended in this round with a double digit loss to Florida. Oral Roberts looks to avoid that same fate on Saturday as they take on 3-seed Arkansas. The Eagles have upset both Ohio State and Florida (ironic!) to get here, which you have to give them credit for doing. But while on a 7-game SU win streak (6-0 ATS L6), five of those wins have come by four points or less and the last four have been by a total of 11 pts (one went to OT). This is a regular season rematch as the teams met all the way back on December 20th in Fayetteville. Arkansas won 87-76, but did not cover as 19.5-point favorites. Obviously, this game is not taking place on the Razorbacks’ campus. However, looking at the line for the regular season matchup and comparing it to this one, you can see some value. Personally, I do not believe the loss of “home court advantage” is worth some eight points to the spread. Since the start of February, Arkansas is 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS. They covered both NCAA Tournament games, beating Colgate 85-68 and Texas Tech 68-66. Look for Oral Roberts’ “Cinderella” run to end Saturday. I’ve been high on this Arkansas team for much of the season and now they are playing up to their potential. They are top 10 in the country in defensive efficiency whereas Oral Roberts is 238th. The Hogs already come in averaging 82.0 PPG (#7 in the country), so they should score a ton here. ORU allowed Florida to shoot 55.2% in the last round and somehow won despite being down 11 in the second half. Ohio State was very much overrated. This team finished 4th in the Summit League! They are not in the Razorbacks’ class. 10* Arkansas |
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03-26-21 | Nuggets v. Pelicans +2 | Top | 113-108 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (8:05 ET): The Pelicans are a team that “should have” a better record. Point differential wise, they are “in the black” (meaning they’ve outscored their opponents this season), yet they currently are five games BELOW .500. Compare that to a team like Portland, who is eight games over .500 despite a negative YTD point differential. But lately, New Orleans has taken matters into its own hands by picking up B2B wins. They beat Denver 113-108 and the LeBron-less Lakers 128-111. Now it’s a rematch with Denver at home. The Nuggets are pretty clearly the West’s 5th best team this season, although they certainly didn’t look like it on Wednesday when I (wisely) decided to fade them against the Raptors. As short road favorites, the Nuggets lost 135-111 to a Toronto team that was on a nine-game losing skid. It was Denver’s worst loss of the season. The game was never really close and quite frankly I was shocked at what an easy winner that ended up being. While there’s no doubt that Denver is going to be looking to bounce back, New Orleans just beat them and is a better team than its record shows. Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson are both really good. The Pelicans’ starting forwards both went for 30+ last week vs. Denver, then Ingram scored a career high 36 vs. the Lakers. Williamson has 21 straight games with 20+ points. The team averages 118.1 PPG at home. Denver is only 1-7 ATS (2-6 SU) this season when the total is 230 points or higher, so this is the kind of game they typically lose. 8* New Orleans |
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03-25-21 | Louisiana Tech v. Western Kentucky +1 | Top | 72-65 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
10* Western Kentucky (10:00 ET): These Conference USA rivals met twice in the regular season, both times in Bowling Green (that’s WKU) and they split the pair. WKU won the first one, 66-64, but then was a 63-58 loser the following day. LA Tech covered both spreads as they were eight-point underdogs in the first meeting and then obviously an outright winner the second time around. But using those first two lines as “barometers,” it would certainly appear as if we’re getting some decent value on WKU for the “rubber match” as they are now a pick ‘em here in Frisco, TX for the NIT Quarterfinals. These were the two division winners in C-USA in the regular season. Both were ousted by eventual winner North Texas in the C-USA Tourney. LA Tech went down first (in the semis) then WKU lost in the final. That tourney final went to OT and was the Hilltoppers’ fourth game in as many days, so I thought it was pretty impressive that they were able to bounce back and defeat a good St. Mary’s team 69-67 in the opening round of the NIT. Though it ended up as a two-point game, WKU took the lead for good with eight minutes to go in the first half. Louisiana Tech upset Ole Miss in its first NIT game. They had a full week off between the C-USA Tournament and NIT while WKU had just three days in between their loss to North Texas and the win over St. Mary’s. Now it’s WKU that comes in with more rest for this game as they last played eight days ago while La Tech last played Saturday. The Hilltoppers did not shoot the ball well in either regular season matchup (35% overall), but I look for that to change here as they earn an 11th win away from home this season. 10* Western Kentucky |
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03-25-21 | Wizards v. Knicks -3 | Top | 102-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
10* New York (7:35 ET): These teams just met Tuesday with the Knicks winning 131-113 as 2.5-point underdogs. I had NY Tuesday and see no reason to “deviate from the script” for tonight’s rematch. The Knicks are a major surprise this year in that they are currently 6th in the Eastern Conference. HC Tom Thibodeau has just done a tremendous job here as the team is #1 in the league in points per game allowed (105.0). The fact that they scored 131 the other night is not surprising as Washington happens to be dead LAST in the league in PPG allowed, giving up an average of 120.2. The Wizards have dropped seven of their last eight games and there’s been only one time during that stretch they didn’t give up more than their season average in points allowed (and that one time wasn’t the lone win either). It is an absolute embarrassment that a team with Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook may not even make the playoffs in the weak Eastern Conference. Not helping their cause tonight is the fact their scoring dips by more than eight points per game on the road compared to when they’re at home. Six Knicks finished in double figures Tuesday night, led by Julius Randle’s 37 points. The team shot a blistering 16 of 30 from three-point range and led by 20 at halftime. Normally, I might say the Knicks are likely to “cool off,” but facing the Wizards it should be yet another big night at the offensive end of the floor. This is just a really good matchup for NY, who is 2-0 SU/ATS this season following a game where they scored 130+. The Wiz are just 5-19 SU vs. conference opponents this season. 10* New York |
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03-24-21 | Nuggets v. Raptors +1.5 | Top | 111-135 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:35 ET): This is the second night of a back to back for Denver as they face a Toronto team that’s in complete disarray right now. The Raptors are responsible for ending the Rockets 20-game losing streak as they went down in Houston 117-99 on Monday. They are now on their own nine-game losing skid and rumors are swirling about the team being a “seller” at the (trade) deadline with Kyle Lowry and Norman Powell being the possible departures. But amidst all this chaos, the Raptors are only a slight home dog to the Nuggets tonight and I think they’re going to “show up.” Take the points. Having been hit hard by COVID-19 and injuries, Toronto is now 17-26 SU on the year and in 11th place in the Eastern Conference. Keep in mind they were .500 and very much considered a playoff team before the current losing skid began. Tonight is very much a “buy low” spot in my eyes. OG Anunoby is set to return to the lineup tonight (sat out Monday) and you’ve gotta think this defense is going to improve. I fully understand that the Raptors have fallen out of favor with much of the public, but their statistical profile is of a team that should be close to .500, not nine games under. Denver was up big on Orlando last night, then nearly let all of a 20+ point lead slip away. They ended up winning 110-99 and covering as 7.5-point road favorites. The Nuggets are solidly in the top five in the Western Conference right now and looking to take advantage of the fact the Lakers’ two stars are both out with injuries. They’ve only lost twice this month, at home to Dallas and New Orleans, but everything about this line “stinks” and I believe it’s a trap game for a team playing w/o rest. Denver is just 1-4 ATS following its last five SU victories. 8* Toronto |
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03-23-21 | Wizards v. Knicks -2.5 | Top | 113-131 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
10* New York (7:35 ET): The NBA’s Eastern Conference is very BAD this year. Or at least you can say that it’s “lacking depth.” There are only three teams (Philly, Brooklyn, Milwaukee) that are currently more than one game above .500. The massive drop-off after that trio sees seven teams separated by just 2.5 games. Surprisingly, one of them is the Knicks. At the start of the season, no one saw this team as a likely playoff contender. But here they are in 7th place and allowing the lowest number of points per game in the entire league. Tom Thibodeau clearly deserves some sort of award. As depth-shy as the East is this season, Washington still finds itself way off the pace for even a play-in spot. They are 15-26 SU and at the opposite end of the spectrum (from the Knicks) when it comes to points allowed as they give up a league-high 120.0 per game. They surprisingly held the Nets to just 113 the other night, in a game effort, but the end result was still a loss, their sixth in the past seven games. Sunday was the first time during that 1-6 SU stretch that they didn’t allow more than 120 points. The Knicks aren’t a high-scoring team, but I expect them to post a big number tonight. They might be just 1-3 SU L4 games, but all three losses came by five points or less, two of them by a total of four points. Also, those losses were to Brooklyn and Philadelphia. Sunday’s loss to the Sixers was an OT game. It’s very sad that Washington isn’t a real playoff contender in the East, considering they have both Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook. New York is simply the better team here and playing with more effort, especially on the defensive end. They beat the Wiz 109-91 as three-point road favorites last month. 10* New York |
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03-22-21 | Hawks v. Clippers -6 | Top | 110-119 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (10:05 ET): For a while now, I’d thought Atlanta was much better than its record showed and sure enough they’ve really picked up the pace by going a perfect 8-0 in March, including 6-0 since the All-Star Break. This is a team that has had a positive scoring differential and net efficiency rating for basically the entirety of the season, so I’m not surprised to see them up in 4th place in the Eastern Conference right now. However, this shapes up to be their toughest matchup in quite some time and I see the win streak coming to an end tonight. The Clippers have been maddeningly inconsistent all year. You’d have to go back more than a month to find the last time they strung together B2B wins. However, they are still 4th in the West, the stronger of the two conferences, and coming off a commanding 27-point victory over Charlotte that took place here at home Saturday night. In four of the last five games, the Clips have held their opponent to 105 points or less. This despite being w/o both Patrick Beverley and Serge Ibaka. Give credit to Atlanta for its eight-game win streak, but they’ve been beating some weak teams such as Orlando, Sacramento, Cleveland, Houston and Oklahoma City. They also just faced the Lakers, the game where LeBron got hurt. Not having to deal with James or Anthony Davis, the Hawks rallied to win that game by five points. That helped the Clippers out and now they can help themselves as there’s definitely room to move up with the Lakers being so vulnerable right now. They still have Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, so I’m not concerned about the injuries to Beverley and Ibaka. 10* LA Clippers |
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03-22-21 | Colorado +1.5 v. Florida State | Top | 53-71 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
9* Colorado (7:45 ET): I feel that the wrong team is favored in this #4 vs. #5 (seed) matchup in the East Region. Colorado very much looked like a Final Four team as they completely dismantled Big East Tournament Champion Georgetown 96-73 in the first round. The Buffaloes came out red hot and took a 24-point lead into halftime. They wound up hitting 16 three-pointers for the game and led by as many as 32 at one point. Leading scorer McKinley Wright IV only had 12 points and that didn’t even matter. FSU had a bit of a tougher time with UNC Greensboro on Saturday. Though the Seminoles pretty much led wire to wire, they saw a double digit lead cut down to just one in the final five minutes. It wound up being a 10-point victory as the ‘Noles were very efficient from inside the arc, making 25 of 39 two-point attempts. They were 0 for 9 from three-point range, however, and that could be a major problem here as they face a team that just made 16 3PA in its first round game. FSU is just 1-4-1 ATS its L6 games, losing three of them outright despite being a favorite in all six. While I don’t think Colorado can possibly shoot as well from 3-point range here as they did vs. G’town, I also am predicting Florida State to have a downturn in its own shooting as well. I’ve been relatively high on this Buffs team all season and very much believe they have Final Four potential. Wright may have only had 12 points, but he had 13 assists and got help from freshman Jabari Walker, who had 24. Colorado is a perfect 8-0 SU this season (and 7-1 ATS) following a game where they scored more than 80 points. 9* Colorado |
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03-22-21 | Ohio v. Creighton -6 | Top | 58-72 | Win | 100 | 31 h 31 m | Show |
10* Creighton (6:10 ET): Creighton, a popular pick to get upset in the first round, was able to hold on for a 63-62 win over UCSB on Saturday. They obviously did not cover the spread (-7.5), but HC Greg McDermott will take it as his team got to move on. It’s been a bit of a “trying month” here with McDermott getting himself suspended for poor phrasing and the Bluejays getting clobbered in the Big East Final by Georgetown. But I still believe this is a Sweet 16 worthy club and they get a great break in playing 13-seed Ohio in the Round of 32. Ohio caught a massive break with its first round draw against Virginia. Due to COVID protocol, the Hoos weren’t able to practice together and didn’t even arrive in Indianapolis until Friday. This put them at a severe disadvantage and they played like it, shooting only 35% from the field, including 8 of 31 from three-point range. The Bobcats are hardly noted as a great defensive team as they rank 152nd nationally in efficiency, which is easily the worst among the 24 remaining teams in the Tournament (only one other is lower than #86 and that’s LSU). Creighton is an elite offensive team that should take advantage of Ohio’s defensive shortcomings. This matchup is similar to Villanova-North Texas, which I cashed in on yesterday. My power ratings suggest that the Bluejays are being significantly undervalued and this line should be double digits. Remember what I said about 13 seeds in Round 2 of the NCAA Tournament yday? They remain “0-fer” the L5 Tourneys in the 2nd round, losing by an average of more than 20 PPG. 10* Creighton |
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03-21-21 | North Texas v. Villanova -5 | Top | 61-84 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
9* Villanova (8:45 ET): ‘Nova treated me well on Friday as they were my top Round 1 selection. A popular pick to be upset, the Wildcats instead won and covered, 73-63 as six-point chalk. With so much talk about the injury to PG Colin Gillespie, I think it’s fair to say the Wildcats are being underrated by the oddsmakers right now. I felt it should have been a double digit spread against Winthrop and think the same here as they face 13-seed North Texas. Lay the points here as Jay Wright’s team catches a very favorable second round matchup. Tip your cap to North Texas for pulling a 78-69 upset over Purdue in Round 1. The Mean Green were 7.5 point underdogs going into that game and are now 5-0 SU/ATS their L5 overall. But remember the Purdue game did go to overtime as UNT was unable to hold on to its early lead. I thought the Mean Green really caught a big break in that the Boilermakers started out very slow and shot poorly throughout. For the game, Purdue shot 36.2% overall and 30% from 3-pt range. Betting against teams seeded 13 or lower in Round 2 is typically the way to go as they struggle to maintain their “momentum” (hate that word) from the first round upsets. In particular, 13 seeds are “0-fer” in the previous four NCAA Tournaments, losing by an average of 18.8 PPG. Again I see some substantial value here on a Villanova team that just won by 10 despite not shooting the ball particularly well. North Texas’ last four victories have all come by fewer than seven points or in overtime. 9* Villanova |
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03-21-21 | Oral Roberts v. Florida -7 | Top | 81-78 | Loss | -114 | 32 h 13 m | Show |
10* Florida (7:45 ET): Although they shot a blistering 56.5% from the field, Florida needed OT to get by Va Tech 75-70 in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The Gators actually trailed by as many as 10 in the first half and were down 44-36 with just 15 minutes to go in regulation. But despite playing short-handed, they found a way to win and that was mostly by dominating the Hokies on the glass (36-22 rebounding edge). Really, had it not been for turnovers and some poor FT shooting, the Gators should have taken the game in regulation. Meanwhile, 15-seed Oral Roberts became the big surprise of the 1st day of Tourney action by stunning Ohio State 75-72 as 15-point underdogs, another game that went to OT. The Eagles, who finished fourth in the Summit League and have the worst defensive efficiency of any team in the NCAA Tournament, pulled off one of the biggest upsets in history despite shooting only 35.7% from the floor. Not to throw “cold water” on the situation, but it’s a game I thought Ohio State really “threw away” in the closing moments of regulation. Turning it over only six times was huge for Oral Roberts. This matchup reminds me a lot of my top first round selection - Villanova over Winthrop. The line is just way too low. It’s because of injuries on the Florida side (remember ‘Nova was missing its starting PG and still won), but they’ve still got Tre Mann, who has averaged 21.6 points the L5 games and Colin Castleton (who went for 19-14 vs. Va Tech). Oral Roberts really got dominated on the glass by Ohio State (-17) and considering what Florida did to Va Tech, I expect that to happen again here. Only one 15-seed (Fla Gulf Coast) has ever made the Sweet 16 and I don’t like Oral Roberts’ chances of becoming the second. Six straight wins for them sounds nice, but four have been by four points or less. 10* Florida |
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03-21-21 | Wisconsin +6.5 v. Baylor | Top | 63-76 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
8* Wisconsin (2:40 ET): The Badgers probably couldn’t have played any better than they did in their 85-62 thrashing of North Carolina on Friday. I was happy to see it. Remember that I said the “wrong team was favored” in that matchup and was on the Badgers. In turning in their fourth largest margin of victory this season, Wisconsin turned it over only seven times vs, UNC while shooting 51% overall and 57% in the second half. Maybe it was the fact the game was played in “familiar territory,” that being Mackey Arena, home of Big 10 rival Pudue. Or maybe it’s that the Badgers are simply far better than their seed indicates. Something else I brought up in my analysis of their first round matchup is the fact that their last four losses all came to ranked teams and were by five points or less. While I don’t think they’ll be able to duplicate the 13 of 27 shooting from three-point range we saw vs. UNC, remember that Wisconsin is a top 15 team in defensive efficiency. In the KenPom ratings, they are in the top 12 overall! Though they had an easy time in Round 1 vs. Hartford, winning 79-55, Baylor really hasn’t looked the same since its season was paused for three weeks in February. They are just 1-7 ATS the L8 games. Even against a 16-seed, they struggled to shoot the ball Friday, making only 41.3% of their FG attempts including 11 of 33 from behind the arc. It will get much harder to make shots today. I just think Wisconsin was really underrated coming into this Tournament. They are 11-3 ATS vs. Big 12 teams. 8* Wisconsin |
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03-20-21 | Abilene Christian +9 v. Texas | Top | 53-52 | Win | 100 | 36 h 21 m | Show |
8* Abilene Christian (9:50 ET): There seem to be a lot of trendy underdogs in this Tournament, but I’m not seeing the name Abilene Christian mentioned among them. Maybe that’s because few people follow the Southland Conference. Or maybe it’s because they draw a tough 3-seed in Texas. But the Wildcats know how to defend as they are top 30 nationally in efficiency. They will be a tough out here. Among teams seeded 11th or lower, only Utah State has a higher defensive efficiency rating than Abilene Christian. No 14-seed has won outright in the L3 NCAA Tournaments. You’d have to go back almost 20 years to find the last time there was a four-year stretch w/o a 14-seed winning. Abilene Christian comes in hot as they’ve won 12 of their last 13 games and steamrolled regular season champ Nicholls 79-45 in the Southland Tournament Final. That defense I mentioned earlier was on full display as they held the Colonels to 29.7% shooting. It was the team’s third consecutive win by 20 or more points. While Texas (5-0 SU/ATS L5 games) has played very well of late for HC Shaka Smart, four of their last six wins have come by four points or fewer. The past three #3 seeds to lose in the first round were all Big 12 teams. Now I’m not saying the Longhorns lose straight up here, but after winning the Big 12 Tournament they feel a bit overvalued. They are just 1-6 ATS vs. teams averaging 77 or more points per game and Abilene Christian averages 77.6 PPG. Take the points with a dog more people should be talking about. 8* Abilene Christian |
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03-20-21 | Norfolk State +34 v. Gonzaga | Top | 55-98 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 31 m | Show |
8* Norfolk State (9:20 ET): Obviously, I’m not predicting an upset here. But this is a ton of points, the largest spread we’ve seen in the NCAA Tournament thus far and I’m grabbing the points. Norfolk State was a 54-53 winner in the “First Four” Thursday, holding off a comeback attempt by Appalachian State, whom they led by as many as 19 points. I think the close call works in our favor here. Had the Spartans won in blowout fashion, my feeling is this line wouldn’t be nearly as high. For the record, my own power ratings suggest this number should be +30. Gonzaga is seeking to become the first team since Indiana in 1976 to run the table and go undefeated for a full season. There is no doubt that the Zags were the best team in America during the regular season. I agree that they should be the favorite to cut down the nets in three weeks. But covering a spread this large can be problematic. There were several times this year where the Bulldogs got “backdoored.” In the seven games this season where they were favored by at least 30 points, they went just 2-5 ATS. Norfolk State has covered its last six lined contests. They’ve won seven in a row overall SU. Their leading scorer Devante Carter scored just four points against App State on 1 of 10 shooting. Expect him to play better here. Defensively, the Spartans allowed just 25.8% shooting in the “First Four” game. Obviously, they won’t get that lucky again, but there’s a lot of pressure on Gonzaga this season and I don’t see them winning this game by 30+ points. For the record, their average margin of victory this season is 23.0 PPG. 8* Norfolk State |
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03-20-21 | UC-Santa Barbara v. Creighton -7 | Top | 62-63 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 40 m | Show |
8* Creighton (3:30 ET): It seems as if the public has turned on Creighton, whether it be due to HC Greg McDermott’s poor choice of words or the team’s hideous showing against Georgetown in the Big East Tournament. Whatever the reason, I’m seeing a great “buy low” opportunity on the Bluejays here in the 1st round vs. UCSB, who did not play a single team from a major conference during the regular season. I expect the underdog Gauchos to really struggle to defend an elite offensive team like Creighton. Lay the points. UCSB is 18-1 SU its last 19 games, but the lack of quality competition certainly helps explain that record. They rolled in the Big West Tournament, but it is worth mentioning that in their four losses this season, the Gauchos let the opponents shoot 44% from downtown. Creighton is a very good three-point shooting team as they make 36.7% of their attempts from behind the arc. I really don’t know how to explain what happened vs. G’town, other than to say it was “one of those days.” I certainly don’t see that happening again. There have been only two times this season when the Bluejays lost B2B games. It was basically dreadful shooting in the first half that sunk Creighton in its last game. Look for them to come out hot here. UCSB has not made the Tournament since 2011. My power rankings say this spread should be double digits and that doesn’t even take into account the fact that UCSB’s third leading scorer (Ajare Sanni) has been downgraded to doubtful for this contest. 8* Creighton |
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03-20-21 | St Bonaventure +2 v. LSU | Top | 61-76 | Loss | -109 | 46 h 30 m | Show |
10* St. Bonaventure (1:45 ET): LSU is precisely the kind of team I look to play against in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament. While the Tigers may be an elite team offensively, their defensive efficiency rating (125th in the country!) really sticks out like a “sore thumb” (in my eyes) and holds them back. They also aren’t a very good rebounding team. The fact that the Bayou Bengals just made it all the way to the SEC Tournament Final cast an even greater public spotlight and this is a great matchup to fade them, IMO. St. Bonaventure, rather quietly, won the regular season and tournament championship in the A-10. The Bonnies are 16-4 SU on the season and won/covered all four neutral court games during the regular season. In the A-10 Tourney, they got by both Saint Louis and VCU, two very good teams. Key here is the fact the Bonnies are 16th in the country in defensive efficiency, a huge edge over LSU. In fact, KenPom rates them as the better overall team in this matchup. I like the fact that teams are shooting less than 39% against them for the season. Remember that I did take LSU (plus the points) in the SEC Tourney Final vs. Alabama. But the Crimson Tide were also coming off a spirited come from behind win over Tennessee less than 24 hours prior. That was also the third meeting of the season between the teams. St. Bonaventure, a team with five double-digit scorers, is less familiar. LSU, for all its scoring prowess, has just four players averaging more than 4.2 PPG. The Tigers are 0-3 ATS L3 NCAA Tournament games. In a battle of two hot teams, the Bonnies are better. 10* St. Bonaventure |
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03-19-21 | Winthrop v. Villanova -6.5 | Top | 63-73 | Win | 100 | 80 h 39 m | Show |
10* Villanova (9:57 ET): It’s the one time of year when I’m looking to FADE underdogs. Bettors are craving upsets during the first round of the NCAA Tournament, which results in many “unfamiliar” sides becoming public darlings. I believe we’ve got one such team here in Winthrop. The fact this is a 12-5 matchup will be sure to attract the public’s eye even more, but the bottom line is that my own personal power ratings suggest this line is substantially off - double the discrepancy of any other first round line vs. my own power ratings. I’ll happily lay the number here. Yes, I’m well aware of the fact Villanova lost it starting PG (Collin Gillespie) to a season-ending injury. But they still finished off Creighton without him and should be well-rested coming into Friday after an early exit from the Big East Tournament. (They lost in the closing seconds to Georgetown). That early exit actually marked the second straight loss for the Wildcats and third in the last four games. But the last two were by a combined three points and games they could have easily won. This is the 1st time all year Nova has been off B2B losses. Winthrop has just one loss this season and it came by two points to UNC Asheville. They dominated the Big South this year, but that’s a pretty weak conference. The key to this game will be tempo as Winthrop likes to play fast while Villanova doesn’t. I think a massive overadjustment has been made here by the oddsmakers in light of Nova’s B2B losses and the Gillespie injury. I’m going to trust my power ratings here. Winthrop turns the ball over at a fairly high rate and I wonder about their interior defense going against the likes of co-Big East Player of the Year Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. 10* Villanova |
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03-19-21 | Morehead State v. West Virginia -13 | Top | 67-84 | Win | 100 | 55 h 7 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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03-19-21 | Pacers v. Heat -4 | Top | 137-110 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
10* Miami (8:05 ET): Indiana has been in a downward spiral for some time now as they’ve dropped 8 of their last 10 games overall, including three of four since the All-Star Break. Some tough matchups haven’t helped as they first had to go on the road to face the Lakers, Suns and Nuggets, followed by a home game vs. red hot Brooklyn. But the fact that they’ve gone just 1-8-1 ATS in those L10 contests speaks to the fact all's not well here. The Pacers are now five games below .500 on the year and now are set to face a Miami team that’s trending in a much different direction. Though the Heat are 11-2 SU their L13 games and up to 4th (place) in the Eastern Conference, they are off a loss here. Ja Morant hit the game winning layup with just over a second remaining as the Grizzlies ended up beating the Heat 89-85 on Wednesday. In the only two losses over the last month, Miami has been held to 85 points or less. That seems to be a recurring theme for them as they’ve now been held to 85 pts or less a league-high six times. But after the last one, they bounced back quickly and defeated the Pelicans by 10 points in the next game. Miami is now healthier than it's been all season, which helps explain the recent surge. They may also have Trevor Ariza making his debut tonight after acquiring him in a trade with OKC. This is the first time facing Indiana since the Heat swept them in the first round of last year’s playoffs. The teams play again here on Sunday. The Heat couldn’t have asked for a better time to face the Pacers than right now. By the way, Miami has been playing excellent defense of late as they’ve held seven of their last eight opponents below 100 points, a remarkable achievement in today’s NBA. 10* Miami |
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03-19-21 | Wisconsin +1.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 85-62 | Win | 100 | 77 h 52 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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03-19-21 | Liberty +7.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 60-69 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 17 m | Show |
8* Liberty (6:25 ET): Here’s an upset bid I do like. Oklahoma State is overvalued right now following a run to the Big 12 Tournament Final. The Cowboys had covered eight in a row before losing to Texas 91-86 (as three-point underdogs) on Saturday. They are 8-2 SU L10 games, the only other loss coming to then-undefeated Baylor. However, a number of those wins were close. Five of them were by five points or less. KenPom has them rated only 30th, very low for a 4-seed, and they aren’t in my Top 25 either. Take the points in this one. Speaking of win streaks, Liberty hasn’t lost since January 15th. The champions of the Atlantic Sun Conference have won 12 straight, not a surprise as they were double digit favorites for most of the games, but they also covered the spread in the majority of them. The fact that the Flames play at a very slow tempo, which will minimize the number of possessions in this game, should increase variance and improve their upset chances. Their lone double digit loss this year was the opener against Purdue. OSU has the likely next #1 overall draft pick in the NBA, Cade Cunningham. But that probably over-values them in the marketplace. This team is just 5-6 ATS as a favorite. Meanwhile, Liberty is 4-1 ATS as a dog. Believe it or not, Oklahoma State has not been favored in any game since they faced an Iowa State team that went winless in Big 12 play, back on February 16th. The only time all year that the Pokes were favored by more than three points against a NCAA Tournament team was the second game of the season vs. Texas Southern (who is in the “First Four.”) 8* Liberty |
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03-19-21 | Georgia Tech v. Loyola-Chicago -2.5 | Top | 60-71 | Win | 100 | 74 h 57 m | Show |
8* Loyola Chicago (4:00 ET): The Ramblers, everyone’s favorite from the 2018 Tournament (when they made a run to the Final Four) is back and they are DANGEROUS. While seeded only 8th, they led the country in defensive efficiency and are considered a Top 10 team (overall!) at KenPom. This is a team no #1 seed wanted to see in the second round, so Illinois better be prepared. But of course, Loyola must first take care of business in the Round of 64 against Georgia Tech. I think they will. Georgia Tech came out of nowhere to win the ACC Tournament. Keep in mind that they got a free pass into the Tournament Final when Virginia had to bow out due to COVID-19. That was after a narrow escape against fledgling Miami, who led them at the half despite playing its third game in as many days. Then, once again playing with a rest advantage, the Yellow Jackets somehow beat Florida State by five in the Final despite the Seminoles shooting 56% from the field and 53.3% from three-point range. The key to that game was FSU turning the ball over an astounding 25 times, leading to 31 Ga Tech points. Yes, it’s now an 8-game win streak for the Yellow Jackets, but I believe it’s a great time to “sell high” on them. As I stated earlier, Loyola is no joke. They are 24-4 SU on the year with the only loss in the last two months coming by a single point at Drake (in the second game of a back to back). They allow just 55.5 PPG (also #1 in the country) and are 22-2 SU/16-7-1 ATS when favored. They also shoot 50% themselves. Georgia Tech has very little depth and already has had a player test positive for COVID before arrival in the Tournament bubble. Before the current win streak, the Jackets were only 9-8 SU. 8* Loyola Chicago |
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03-19-21 | Utah State +4.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 53-65 | Loss | -112 | 47 h 2 m | Show |
8* Utah State (1:45 ET): The Aggies of Utah State finished second in the Mountain West this season and were the runners up in the conference tournament. They are a top 10 team in the country in defensive efficiency. So I like ‘em getting points in this first round matchup with inconsistent Texas Tech. The Aggies have tremendous size in the frontcourt with 7-footer Neemias Queta averaging a double double (15.1 points, 10.0 rebounds) and forward Justin Bean right behind him in both departments (11.3, 7.7). Teams that have size have given Texas Tech problems all season. There’s always an upset or two on the first full day of the Tournament and this may very well be one of them. Take the points. Texas Tech has gone far in both of its previous NCAA Tournament appearances under HC Chris Beard. You may recall that I was quite high on them during their run to the Championship Game in the last Tournament (2019) where they ultimately fell to Virginia (in overtime). They were an Elite Eight team in 2018. Perhaps it’s this resume why most bettors seem to think the Red Raiders will be fine here. But this particular group is NOT as strong as those previous two Tourney teams. This year, Texas Tech ranks “just” 24th in defensive efficiency. That’s obviously still pretty good, but not as good as Utah State and not as good as the 2019 Red Raiders team that was #1 in the country in defensive efficiency. Texas Tech is 0-3 ATS in neutral court games this season and just 3-5 SU in its last eight games overall. Utah State is 4-0 ATS after a game where it was held to 60 pts or less. They are 20-6 SU overall L26 games with three of the losses by four points or less. 8* Utah State |
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03-18-21 | UCLA +2.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 86-80 | Win | 100 | 56 h 2 m | Show |
10* UCLA (9:57 ET): So UCLA’s regular season did not end well. They come into the NCAA Tourney having lost four in a row, those losses coming to: Colorado, Oregon, USC and Oregon State. Those would be the three teams I considered the best in the Pac 12 and also the team that won the conference tourney. Furthermore, it’s not like the Bruins played poorly in these games. Against USC, they led the whole way - until 1.3 seconds were left and the Trojans hit the GW three-pointer. Their exit at the hands of Oregon State in the Pac 12 quarterfinals may have been even more painful as they blew a 16 pt lead. You will probably hear numerous times about how Michigan State has wins over Illinois, Ohio State and Michigan in the last month. While that is rather impressive, Sparty was a clear underachiever this season. That’s evident by their 9-18 ATS record, which includes 3-11 when favored. They had those three impressive wins, but they also lost by 30 to Iowa and Rutgers. In three of their last five games, MSU failed to score 60 points, including a 68-57 exit against Maryland in the Big 10 Tournament. The fact UCLA has shot better than 50% its L5 games, but gone 1-4 SU, is a bit mystifying. They led the Pac 12 in three-point shooting this year at 39%. I think the Bruins are going to be a handful for a MIchigan State team that has just THREE wins outside of East Lansing this season while averaging just 63.5 PPG. UCLA has five double digit scorers, led by Kentucky transfer Johnny Juzang’s 14.0 PPG. They’ve led at the half in each of the L4 games, but are 0-4 SU! That’s insane! They are the better team here and should be favored. 10* UCLA |
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03-17-21 | Kings v. Wizards -3 | Top | 121-119 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
10* Washington (7:05 ET): Once again, I’m fading Sacramento. The last time I did so was Monday and sure enough they blew a 4Q lead and lost 122-116 in Charlotte. This play is quite similar in that we’re laying a short number to them on the road. Washington may not be as strong as Charlotte this season, but after losing to the Sixers and the Bucks twice, they should be ready to take advantage of a rare favorable spot. The Wizards’ current 1-6 SU slide is very much a byproduct of “who they’ve played” and I like them to bounce back here. The Kings lost more than a game on Monday. Marvin Bagley III, one of their top players, fractured his hand and will be out indefinitely. I’m sure the team will still figure out ways to score, but the issue for them remains on the defensive end where they are about as bad as anyone. No team in the league gives up more points per possessions and sure enough they’ve allowed 120+ points in five of the last six games. They shot 55.8% themselves on Monday and still lost. That dropped them to 3-13 SU since Feb 9 and those wins came against Detroit (worst team in the East), the Lakers (no LeBron/Davis) and Houston (17-game losing streak). Two of the three wins were by three points each. If there’s one thing that the Wizards do well, it’s score. So expect a ton of points from them tonight. Now, like the Kings, they too struggle at the defensive end. Notice how high the total is for this game. But, when the total is 230 or higher this season, Sacramento’s ATS record is just 4-12 (2-14 SU). Hopefully, 3-point shooting specialist Davis Bertans (knee) will be able to suit up tonight for the Wiz. If not, Bradley Beal (NBA’s leading scorer) and Russell Westbrook (off 23-17 game) should still carry them to a win and cover. 10* Washington |
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03-16-21 | Thunder v. Bulls -5.5 | Top | 102-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
10* Chicago (8:05 ET): The East isn’t particularly deep this season (only three good teams, IMO) and there is only a four-game gap between 4th and 11 place in the conference. Chicago is a team “in the mix” despite a SU record of 17-20. They just took advantage of the shorthanded Raptors Sunday night, earning one of their most lopsided wins in awhile, 118-95 as a three-point favorite. Now the Bulls can make it B2B wins by beating what I consider one of the weaker teams in the league, Oklahoma City. It’s a home game and a short number and I say lay it. The Thunder are also coming off a win on Sunday as they beat the Grizzlies 128-122 as a 9.5-point home underdog. It was OKC’s third win in the last four games, though they are still closer to the bottom than the top in the West with a 17-22 overall record. They’ve been a bit more competitive than expected, especially on the road where their ATS record is 13-5. But by most objective measures, they still should be counted among the worst teams in the NBA. After a game where they score 115+ points, it's a good time to fade the Thunder. They are just 1-7 SU/2-6 ATS in this situation. Chicago didn’t even get much from leading scorer Zach LaVine against Toronto as their leading scorer finished with only 15 points, his second lowest total of the season. He had 35 in the first meeting with the Thunder though, which the Bulls lost 127-125 in OT. The Bulls were favored to win that game (-2.5) and I like the revenge angle here, especially considering their 15-5 ATS mark this season when facing teams with a losing record. OKC can be pesky on the road, but this number is too low. 10* Chicago |
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03-15-21 | Kings v. Hornets -3 | Top | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): It would certainly appear as if the oddsmakers opened this line far too low. Not that I’m any kind of “big believer” in Charlotte, but Sacramento is most definitely one of the worst teams in the league (again) this season as they have the third worst record in the Western Conference and are giving up a league-high 120.0 PPG. Lay the points in this one. With three consecutive victories, the Hornets have climbed above the .500 mark and into sixth place in the Eastern Conference. This is something few would have imagined at the start of the season. In Saturday’s 114-104 win over the Raptors, they had a huge 1st quarter (44 points) and never really looked back. They wound up tying a season-high with 21 made three-pointers, 11 of those coming in the big opening quarter. Considering how porous the Kings are at the defensive end, Charlotte seems poised for another big offensive effort tonight. Two weeks ago, they won 127-126 in Sacramento, led by a career-best 42 points from PJ Washington. The Kings have split their two games since the All-Star Break, but are coming off a 15-point loss to the Hawks. They are also just 3-12 SU since Feb 9. Those three wins came against: Detroit (worst team in the East), the short-handed Lakers (no LeBron/Davis) and Houston (who is on a 16-game losing streak). Two of the three wins were by three points each. I know Charlotte has had its share of close wins recently, but unlike Sacramento, they can play defense. The current three-game win streak has seen them allow 102, 102 and 104 pts. With about 3,000 fans now allowed in, there’s a sense of home court advantage here. 8* Charlotte |
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03-14-21 | Jazz v. Warriors +7 | Top | 119-131 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
10* Golden State (4:05 ET): The Utah Jazz were THE surprise team in the league in the first half. Not that no one expected to be good, but ascending to the top spot in the entire NBA was something few, if any, saw coming. But somewhat predictably, the Jazz have begun to “give a little back.” They lost their final two games before the All-Star Break, then failed to cover Friday against Houston, although they were massive 19-point favorites for that one. Golden State comes in on a season-worst four-game losing streak. Three of those losses - to the Lakers, Suns and Clippers. While it’s notable that those are three of the best teams in the Western Conference, so is the fact that all four losses have been on the road. Prior to this current losing skid, the Warriors had not dropped more than two in a row at any point this season. Ironically enough, this four-game losing streak came on the heels of their first three-game win streak of the season. The first Utah-Golden State matchup of the season did not go well for the Warriors as they lost by 19 points. But that game was in Salt Lake City. Seven of Utah’s nine losses this season have come on the road while Golden State is a solid 12-6 SU at home. Also interesting is the fact the Dubs were “only” 7-point underdogs when they visited Utah for that first meeting. Now the number is roughly unchanged for a home game. I’m seeing some value today on the underdog especially since they’ve won three straight here in San Francisco. 10* Golden State |