Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-19-17 | Bulls v. Suns -3 | Top | 105-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (8:05 ET): For the Suns to be favored, you have to know that the opponent is weak and sure enough, in comes Chicago on Sunday. This is not exactly the "marquee matchup" on the NBA slate for Sunday as Phoenix comes in at 6-11 SU (but are being outscored by 9.0 PPG) while Chicago is 3-10 SU (-9.5 PPG). Surprisingly, both are off wins here. The Bulls upset Charlotte on Friday, 123-120 as 6.5-point underdogs, snapping a five-game losing skid. Meanwhile, that same night saw the Suns gain a measure of revenge against the Lakers (who beat them earlier in the week) as they prevailed 122-113 as 7.5-pt road dogs. You could make a case that Phoenix is lucky to have six wins, but the bottom line is this is one of the rare times they come in as the better team. Lay the short number at home. It was a 40-point fourth quarter for Chicago against Charlotte on Friday that enabled them to get the victory. To call that kind of scoring outburst "rare" from this team would be putting it mildly. The previous game saw them score only 79 points total, including just SEVEN in the first quarter. This is one of only three teams in the league NOT to be averaging 100 PPG as they are at 94.9 PPG, which ranks 29th (only ahead of Sacramento). They are also 29th in efficiency as well, joining the Mavs, Lakers and Kings as the only teams not to be averaging one point per possession. It's not like they're very good defensively either as they rank 20th in efficiency there. On the road this season, they are 1-6 straight up and being outscored by 9.3 points per game. They have not scored 100+ pts in B2B games at any point this season. Phoenix has actually scored 112 or more points in four of its last five games! Now, defensively, this team leaves a lot to be desired. But as discussed earlier, they don't have a lot to worry about here checking the Bulls. One thing that will be interesting to note during the course of this game is the pace. Phoenix is tied for the fastest pace in the league while Chicago plays at the fourth slowest. If the Suns can "speed the game up," then it's advantage them. The Bulls have lost all five games against the Western Conference this year, by an average of 20 points per game. It's pretty rare that you'll get to go against them laying this few points. Do it! 10* Phoenix |
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11-18-17 | Celtics -6.5 v. Hawks | Top | 110-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:35 ET): A road favorite, tempting as they may be, that's this hot is typically something I might shy away from. But I'll make an exception here as the Celtics, who have won 13 straight (while going 12-1 ATS!), play the lowly Hawks. Not only did Atlanta hand Boston it's lone ATS defeat during the 13-game SU win streak, but they are also coming off a rather shocking 46-point victory (franchise record!). It was only their third SU win of the entire season and to put it in perspective, they did play the Kings. Meanwhile, just to show where Boston is at right now, they were able to beat the Warriors on Thursday despite shooting less than 40% from the floor. This is a massive drop in class for them, as they go from facing the best team in the league to one of its worst. It's just the opposite for the Hawks. Lay the points. Atlanta was actually off a win the last time they faced Boston, albeit of a much different variety. They had just stunned Cleveland the day before, 117-115, as 11-point road dogs. Here, they've had some time off (two days) since pulling off the most lopsided win in franchise history. Just to show how much different the market now views Boston, they were only 7.5-pt favorites at HOME for the first meeting w/ the Hawks. While there were 24 lead changes in the game, note the Celtics did lead by as many as 10 in the 4Q. Note the Hawks shot 50% from three-point range in that game, something I seriously doubt they'll repeat tonight. After all, Boston is the #1 team in the league in terms of defensive efficiency and holds opponents to only 42.8% shooting overall. They just held the WARRIORS to 88 points on 40% shooting. The fact that Boston won Thursday night, despite shooting only 32.9% from the field (7 of 32 from 3-pt range!) is remarkable. It also reinforces that they are the best defensive team in the league right now. It's become cliche to say, but what a remarkable coaching job Brad Stevens is doing here. Yes, you can point to the massive edge the Celtics enjoyed in FT's as a reason for them beating Golden State. But no such edge will need to be present to beat this lowly opponent. Over the L3 seasons, Atlanta is just 5-15 ATS when facing an opponent that is giving up less than 98 points per game. Boston gives up 94.1 PPG. This is a much bigger mismatch than the oddsmakers are accounting for. 8* Boston |
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11-18-17 | Princeton +2.5 v. St. Joe's | Top | 58-71 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
10* Princeton (7:00 ET): The Ivy League contingent has opened a disappointing 0-2 SU/ATS, having faced both Butler and BYU. They were favored over the latter, at home, Wednesday night but shot only 37.7% from the floor and scored 56 points. That was a major disappointing considering how well they shot (55.6%) against Butler (road game) in the opener. I'll call for something close to that here as Princeton faces a St. Joe's squad, which has given up an average of 90 points through its first two games. The Hawks would be 0-2 themselves if not for an overtime win at UIC Monday. They trailed by as many as 11 late in the second half there. That was after giving up 98 in regulation at Toledo in the season opener. Though less rested and on the road, I like the underdog here. This game will come down to how well Princeton can shoot the ball. Considering they shot at a 55.6% clip already this year, we know what they're capable of doing. They even shot 60% from three-point range in that first game. The issue there was they fell behind early (trailed by 10 at half) and were dominated on the boards by Butler (outrebounded 31-18). I do not expect either situation to present itself again tonight. Against BYU, the Tigers actually enjoyed a 36-23 edge on the boards, but in a cruel twist of fate could not make baskets. It was a two-point game w/ just three minutes to go, but Princeton could get no closer. As I stated earlier, St. Joe's should feel pretty fortunate that they too are not entering this contest at 0-2 SU. Trailing UIC by double digits is not a "good look," even if the Hawks were slight underdogs on the road. Nor was getting blitzed by Toledo a good look either. St. Joe's fell behind in that game, 18-4, and trailed the whole way. They also allowed the Rockets to make 14 of 25 from three-point range! Considering Princeton has shot at a 47.1% clip from behind the arc these first two games, look for that to be an effective option tonight. Take the points. 10* Princeton |
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11-17-17 | Pistons v. Pacers -1.5 | Top | 100-107 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
10* Indiana (7:05 ET): I said to fade Detroit in their last game and sure enough they ended up losing, 99-95 (as 3.5-pt dogs) at Milwaukee. Now, for some, that closing line may have actually ended up a little higher, thereby affecting the ATS result. But my view of the Pistons has not changed here as I believe they've overachieved due in large part to a home-heavy schedule (no one going to games though!) in the early part of this season. They'd played only five road games prior to visiting Milwaukee on Wednesday and were coming off a perfect 5-0 home stand. But they've failed to top 95 points in either of their last two roadies, which includes a 20-pt loss to the Lakers. Tonight they'll be facing a revenge-minded Indiana squad that lost by 17 up in the Motor City earlier this month. Prior to that loss, the Pacers had won and covered seven of the previous eight meetings w/ this particular Central Division rival. That included a 4-0 SU/ATS sweep last season and a 4-0 SU/ATS mark here at home the L2 seasons. Indiana is not expected to be a playoff team this year, but at 7-8 SU, they've at least been competitive. They are coming off a 116-113 win at Memphis Wednesday night, which saw them score 67 first-half points (most allowed by the Grizzlies this season) and build a 17-point lead in the fourth quarter. Darren Collison had himself a remarkable game, scoring 30 points (12 for 12 from FT line) w/ eight assists (no turnovers). Unlike Detroit, the Pacers have played a majority of their games on the road. This will be just their third home game in November. They've lost the previous two, to New Orleans and Houston. So I suspect motivation will not be lacking here, especially when you add in the revenge factor. Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last five revenge spots, by the way. Meanwhile, despite losing by only four at Milwaukee Wednesday, the Pistons trailed by 13 entering the fourth quarter. So we have a couple of misleading final scores to deal with here and as a result we have a home side that's being undervalued. 10* Indiana |
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11-17-17 | Quinnipiac +17 v. Colorado | Top | 69-70 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
8* Quinnipiac (6:00 ET): This is a neutral site affair, part of the Paradise Jam, which takes place in Lynchburg, Virginia. The winner will play either Drake or Wake Forest in Saturday's semifinals. Colorado is 2-0 SU, having beaten in-state foes Northern Colorado and Denver by double digits. But despite also going 2-0 ATS in those games, it really tells us very little about where the Buffaloes are actually at entering 2017. This is a much different team than the one that went 19-15 SU a year ago, personnel wise. Four players were lost to graduation, leaving a rotation that is a "work in progress" according to HC Tad Boyle. There are eight newcomers that have seen action thus far. One of them is NOT freshman Evan Battey, who was expected to be a starter in the frontcourt, but instead must sit out this entire year due to academics. Quinnipiac is 1-1 SU so far, having played two close games against Ivy League schools. They opened w/ a one-point win over Dartmouth and then followed that up by losing by seven to Brown. Both were home games for a school known more for its polling institute than its athletic programs. From 2009 to 2014, the Bobcats produced three 20+ win seasons. However, they are just 34-57 SU the L3 seasons under HC Tom Moore. One positive here though is that they have covered four of their last five neutral court games. They also have one of the top players in the MAAC, that being Chaise Daniels, a senior who has 39 pts, 11 rebounds and six blocks in the first two games. Freshman Rich Kelly looks to be an impactful newcomer as he's scored in double figures in both games. Though they've previously covered twice as double-digit favorites, this is the biggest spread to date for Colorado and I wouldn't trust them just yet, especially at a neutral setting. Furthermore, they've actually lost 6 of their previous 10 neutral site games. Not saying they'll lose this one outright, but winning by this kind of margin seems unlikely. The 27-point win over Denver on Tuesday can be explained by the fact that the Buffs had four days off before the game. They still allowed the Pioneers to shoot 55.6% from the floor in the 1H though before the underdog admittedly ran out of gas. I'm also not sure CU will get to enjoy a 2:1 rebounding edge, like they had vs. Denver, again tonight. Quinnipiac actually shot well in the loss to Brown (48%) and if they can do that again, they should easily cover here. 8* Quinnipiac |
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11-16-17 | Missouri v. Utah -3 | Top | 59-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
10* Utah (8:00 ET): Here's an interesting, early-season non-conference battle. Both Missouri and Utah are 2-0, but that was expected by the oddmakers. The Utes have played a couple of cupcakes - Prairie View A&M and Mississippi Valley State - and blew them out by a combined 59 points. Missouri actually opened w/ Iowa State (in Columbia) and won by 15 as six-point chalk. The Tigers' last opponent, Wagner, was totally overmatched in a 99-55 final. So who comes out on top here? Well, the answer to that question likely depends a lot on who will or won't play here. Mizzou could be w/o at least one key contributor and that could be the difference. Regardless if they are shorthanded or not here, I'm fading them in their first road trip of this young season. Utah outscored MVSU by 20 pts in each half on Tuesday, resulting in a 91-51 win. What it was clearly an overmatched opponent, I was nevertheless impressed w/ how the Utes dominated despite being w/o one of their top players Sedrick Barefield (sick). They also didn't have Jayce Johnson for a second straight game. Those are expected to be two key contributors for a team that lost four of its top six scorers from a year ago, so it's pretty impressive that they haven't "skipped a beat." Barefield is reportedly feeling better and thus is probable to play tonight. As I'll get to more in a moment, this game taking place in Salt Lake City is huge and not just because the Utes are 32-5 SU their last 37 games here. Missouri has lost an unconscionable 35 consecutive "true" road games dating back to a win at Arkansas in 2014! I'd say that's a "pretty big" deal in handicapping this matchup, don't you? Also there's a good chance they will be w/o their projected NBA lottery pick Michael Porter Jr, who is battling a hip injury. He's currently listed as questionable for tonight. Also, another player - guard Blake Harris - left the last game w/ a leg injury. Not only has Mizzou been an atrocious road team that last four seasons, they predictably haven't been good as an underdog either, losing 39 of 44 straight up in that role, most of those coming away from Columbia. More of the same here. 10* Utah |
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11-15-17 | 76ers v. Lakers +3 | Top | 115-109 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 25 m | Show |
10* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): The infamous "process" is starting to pay dividends in Philly as the Sixers have started 7-6 SU. They're also 9-4 ATS, a continuation of last year's success at the betting window when they were the best bet in the league. They just beat the Clippers here in L.A., 109-105 Monday (as 1.5-pt dogs) and will now play their second straight game at Staples Center, this one coming against the Lakers. "Showtime" is also off a win, theirs coming at Phoenix, which snapped an ugly three-game SU/ATS losing skid. The Lakers are playing remarkably well at the defensive end this season (4th in efficiency!) and with this being the finale of a five-game trek out West for the 76ers, you have to wonder what they may have left in the tank. Love the home dog here. Yes, the Lakers are one of four teams currently allowing fewer than one point per possession. The other three are: Boston, Oklahoma City and Portland. This is quite the remarkable achievement considering that it was just last season that the Lakers ranked dead last in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up 1.11 points per possession. They held Phoenix to just 93 points Monday night, thus avoiding what could have been a winless four-game trip. In addition to the defensive improvement that has already taken place here, we should expect the Lakers to be better on the offensive end in this game as well. I say that because they are averaging 106.0 PPG at home this season as opposed to just 100.6 PPG on the road. Philadelphia is a bit of a question mark defensively as they are giving up 109.5 PPG. That number jumps to 110.8 on the road. Admittedly, that's a bit skewed due to giving up 135 at Golden State over the weekend. However, let us not forget that this group also lost outright (as a favorite) in Sacramento late last week as well. I'm not yet convinced that this team has earned the right to be consistently favored away from home. They've only been favored four times all year and lost two of those games outright. The two they covered were at home against lowly Atlanta and Indiana. To me, this is more of a "pick 'em" type affair. Consider that over the last three seasons, this will be just the TENTH time that Philadelphia has been favored! Cart before the horse? 10* LA Lakers |
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11-15-17 | Creighton v. Northwestern -3 | Top | 92-88 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
10* Northwestern (9:00 ET): We find a Big 10 team laying a pretty short number here to a team from the Big East, even though the game takes place in the former's gym. Northwestern has started its season w/ a couple of closer than expected victories over Loyola MD and St. Peter's, both coming by just single digits. I believe that's played an instrumental role in driving down this number far more than it ought to be. Creighton, on the other hand, has scored 92 and 109 points in its two victories, so it's easy to see why they'd look so attractive as an underdog. But I won't be taking the bait; in fact, this marks a great opportunity to take an undervalued favorite that is ranked #20 in the country. Michigan State is obviously the heavy favorite this year in the Big 10, but don't be surprised if Chris Collins has this N'western team not too far behind. I've seen the Wildcats pegged as high as a third-place finish! Again, they are ranked (currently #20), so they won't be sneaking up on anybody. The close win over St. Peter's comes w/ a caveat in that the Wildcats led by 18 w/ 12 minutes to go. It was clearly a case of letting the underdog back in through the back door. It was a similar story in the first game against Loyola, who they allowed to score 51 points in the second half. I suspect such lapses will not be taking place in this game. At least they better not or the Wildcats will taste defeat for the 1st time this season. Remember that Collins got N'western to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in school history last season. Four starters are back from that team. Creighton always seems to rank near the top of the country in offensive efficiency for HC McDermott. They've already made 24 three-pointers this season, shooting at a 41.1% clip from behind the arc. But that was also against much lesser competition than what they'll be facing here. Two players - Marcus Foster and Khyri Thomas - have accounted for 40% of all Blue Jays' scoring this year, which is quite a bit when you consider the team has scored 201 points in the two games. Those two are the only two starters back from LY, so they're less experienced compared to their opponent tonight. That matters this time of year as does the fact Creighton is just 8-13 ATS the L21 times it has been an underdog, winning only five of those games straight up. Northwestern has covered three straight against Big East opponents, plus is 14-5 ATS their last 19 against that conference. 10* Northwestern |
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11-15-17 | Pistons v. Bucks -3.5 | Top | 95-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): Somebody break up the Pistons! In their return to downtown Detroit, the team has started 10-3 SU. Only Boston, Golden State and Houston can claim more victories right now. If only people would start going to the games! Tonight though, they're in Milwaukee for what sets up as an interesting Central Division battle. The Bucks are only 7-6 SU, but have won three straight (all against Western Conference teams) since acquiring Eric Bledsoe in a trade w/ Phoenix. Pairing Bledsoe w/ everyone's favorite dark horse MVP candidate - Giannis Antetokounmpo - makes Milwaukee a significantly better team than the one who lost 105-96 in Detroit two weeks ago. I'll take them minus the short number in this revenge spot. Detroit has won five in a row, but all of those victories were achieved at home, in front of all of those empty seats. While the team is now 7-1 SU in the Motor City, they're only 3-2 SU on the road. Their last road game also happened to be their last loss and it was an ugly one, 113-93 to the Lakers. They did win at Golden State two nights before that, but still, I question if this team can play consistently well away from home. They are just 34-55 SU in road games under HC Stan Van Gundy. A big reason for them beating Milwaukee the first time around (besides no Bledsoe for the Bucks) was a +19 edge in FT attempts. That's not likely to exist here in this rematch being the game is in the Bradley Center. Antetokounmpo leads the league in scoring (31.3 PPG), but clearly needed help as the Bucks were lacking in depth. Help has arrived in the form of Bledsoe, who may not be shooting the ball that well yet, but that was to expected given he had yet to play this season. In his first game w/ the team, the Bucks won at San Antonio. They've since won and covered here at home against the Lakers and Grizzlies. A strong defensive effort was the reason they beat the Grizz, whom they held to just 12 pts in the third quarter Monday. The two games before that, they held the opposition to 42.5% and 41.9% shooting respectively. I like those defensive numbers and w/ the Pistons still relatively unproven on the road, I think this is a great spot to fade them. 8* Milwaukee |
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11-14-17 | Spurs -6.5 v. Mavs | Top | 97-91 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (8:35 ET): We've got a mismatch as big as Texas itself on the Tuesday NBA card and not even home court advantage can help the lowly Mavs against the Spurs. Dallas enters tonight's tilt tied w/ Atlanta for the worst record in the league (2-12 SU), though admittedly there are worse teams. But don't let that minor detail fool you into thinking the Mavs have a chance tonight. They failed to cash as home dogs Saturday vs. Cleveland, so a superior opponent in the same price range seems like a solid value to me. The Mavs also failed to cover on Saturday, losing 112-99 as 10-point dogs at Oklahoma City. Meanwhile, San Antonio had zero difficulty against another bottom feeder in its last game as they routed Chicago 133-94 on Saturday. Lay the points. It seems as if the oddsmakers have been slow to catch onto the Mavericks' decline as they stand at 3-11 ATS overall, including 1-6 at home. They're being outscored by 8.2 PPG overall and that's against opposition that is mostly inferior to the team they'll face tonight. Offensively, there are big issues in 'Big D' w/ the team ranking 26th in efficiency. They are one of five teams currently not averaging at least one point per possession. But defensively, they are actually worse as they come into this game ranked 29th in efficiency. It's a struggle to even get the 39-year Dirk Nowitzki on the court these days as Rick Carlisle now has to lean on the likes of Harrison Barnes and rookie Dennis Smith, Jr. Expect this team to have a high draft pick next summer. As for the Spurs, they've managed to go 8-5 SU despite being w/o Kwahi Leonard and Tony Parker. Their offense has really picked up of late w/ the third best efficiency rating in the league over the L5 games, so I expect them to slice and dice that porous Mavs defense. The Spurs defense, as per usual, ranks near the top of the league at #6 in efficiency. There was a four-game losing streak earlier in the year (included Boston and Golden State), but other than that, San Antonio has been as good as usual. Consider they were w/o roughly one-third of the roster and still beat Chicago by 39 points on Saturday. That's actually important to note as the Mavs are pretty comparable to the Bulls these days. 8* San Antonio |
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11-14-17 | Michigan State v. Duke -2 | Top | 81-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
8* Duke (7:00 ET): Unlike football, we don't have to wait for a playoff for #1 vs. #2 in College Hoops as we're getting it here in just the second game of the season! It's Duke vs. Michigan State tonight as part of the "Champion's Classic" in Chicago The top ranked Blue Devils have actually played twice and as you'd expect, they had no difficulty in dispatching of both Utah Valley State and Elon. Michigan State has just one game under its belt and similarly had no problem, even covering a 31-point spread (barely) against North Florida (won 98-66). Sparty does have revenge here for a nine-point loss in Cameron LY (were 13-pt dogs), but the Blue Devils will be too tough yet again. Everyone likes to say how Coach K "does things the right way," but all the young talent he's "renting" for the time being would make even Coach Cal blush. Only one Duke player - Grayson Allen - even played in LY's Michigan State game. The freshman class, led by the superb Marvin Bagley III, will carry this year's team. Thus far, Bagley has been as good as advertised, posting a double-double in each of his first two games. Bagley went for 24-10 Saturday against Utah Valley State (99-69 final), helping Coach K become the first in his profession to 1,000 career wins. Three other freshman also scored in double figures. Incredibly, Duke's first 40 points were all scored by freshman. Four start and expect there to be times when five are on the court together here. By the way, none of this should be viewed as a negative. This team is supremely talented. Michigan State has some key freshman as well and they'll be charged w/ helping Sparty's six-game losing skid to the Blue Devils. That includes a 2015 Final Four loss. One concern I have here for Coach Izzo's team is that they shot only 25% from three-point range in the season opener. They will NOT be able to impose their will here on the inside against a much stronger opponent. Were the spread a bit larger, I'd at least consider the underdog here, but it's basically nil and all we basically need is a straight up win from the favorite. Duke is the better team on paper and I do expect them to win. Consider that Izzo is just 5-14 SU his L19 game when listed as the dog. Look for #1 to beat #2 in this early season showdown. 8* Duke |
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11-13-17 | Lakers v. Suns -2 | Top | 100-93 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (9:05 ET): This is hardly a marquee battle in the Western Conference as two teams at the bottom face off. The Lakers, playing their fourth road game in seven days, come in on a three-game losing streak. To avoid a winless trip, they'll have to beat Phoenix, which may actually be easier said than done. That's because Saturday saw the Suns pull a nice upset here at home, 118-110 over Minnesota. Widely projected to be one of the worst teams in the entire league this year, Phoenix started 0-3 and promptly fired HC Earl Watson. They are a far more respectable 5-6 SU under interim Jay Triano and the situation clearly favors them tonight as they're playing a fourth consecutive home game. Thus, I wasn't surprised to see early betting change who's favored here. Both Devin Booker and TJ Warren scored 35 points for the Suns Saturday night as the team shot a blistering 52.5% from the field. Minnesota is a bad defensive team, mind you, but I expect the Lakers' own defensive numbers to start plummeting as well. They come into tonight ranked 6th in defensive efficiency, which downright shocked me. When these teams played back in the second game of the season, it was a 132-130 final w/o overtime. But the Lakers' offense has been a problem recently, failing to even score 100 pts in any of the L3 games, so I seriously doubt they'll match that kind of production. They are near the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency coming into tonight as #2 overall DC Lonzo Ball continues to struggle w/ his shot. Ball almost had a triple double in that first meeting (one assist shy), but finally became the youngest player in league history to record one as he finished w/ 19-13-12 in Saturday's 98-90 loss at Milwaukee. But, as alluded to earlier, his shooting has been way off in the early part of his pro career. The expectation here will be this is a much "easier" game for the Lakers following three in a row against top tier teams from the Eastern Conference. But I still don't like their chances as they're just 1-5 SU on the road overall and getting outscored by 8.5 PPG overall in those contests. Keep in mind Milwaukee was playing in the second night of back to back Saturday and should have been ripe for a letdown, considering they'd just upset San Antonio. The Lakers still failed to take advantage. Meanwhile, the Suns won their last game, despite being in the 2nd game of a B2B themselves (Minnesota had been off for two days). Considering those respective results, you have to like the Suns here in what is a far more favorable situation. 10* Phoenix |
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11-13-17 | La Salle +2.5 v. Pennsylvania | Top | 75-71 | Win | 100 | 21 h 1 m | Show |
8* LaSalle (7:00 ET): Last year, LaSalle and Penn played the final of the Big 5 (Philly schools) matchups. This year, they face one another almost right out of the gate. Both squads have a game under their belt w/ LaSalle winning and Penn losing. LaSalle beat St. Peter's, handily, 61-40 as 9.5-pt home chalk on Saturday. Penn, on the other hand, got off to a disappointing start by losing 80-72 at Fairfield (also on Saturday). As much as the Quakers will be looking to bounce back here, there's another factor at play that I deem more significant and that's the fact the underdog (LaSalle) comes in w/ double revenge. Penn beat them each of the last two seasons, including an upset LY in their own gym. I'll call for the Explorers to turn the table here tough and pull off their own outright victory. Take the points. Since making the NCAA Tournament back in 2013, La Salle has experienced some lean years. Things bottomed out two years ago w/ a 9-22 (SU) campaign, but HC John Giannini got them back to respectability last season w/ a .500 finish that was actually a bit on the disappointing side as they were 11-5 SU at one point before losing 10 of their final 14 games. They were even 5-1 SU in A-10 play at one point. This year's team is being pegged for middle of the road in the conference standings, but who knows as both Dayton and VCU should be "down" in 2017-18, thus leaving the door open. I was impressed by the team's defense in the season opener as they held St. Peter's to 15 of 49 shooting (30.6%!). I'm hoping for something similar here as LY, they allowed Penn to shoot 47.5% in a game the Explorers probably should have won. The Ivy League contingent shot only 36.1% in its opener, including 9 of 39 from three-point range. That number of attempts marked a school record, so we know what the philosophy seems to be here. The Quakers were outscored in the paint 36-26 by the Stags, not really a good sign when you think about it as they get set to face a bigger opponent. LaSalle clearly needs to exploit the interior in this game. It's not as if Penn is some powerhouse out of the Ivy League; they're expected to finish below Princeton, Harvard and Yale. Last year, they were fortunate to hold off LaSalle, winning by just three thanks to a career-best 35 pts from AJ Brodeur. This is a pretty young roster, especially for an Ivy League team. With two games coming against ranked teams next week, it's pretty imperative that LaSalle wins this one. I think they will. 8* LaSalle |
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11-12-17 | Rockets -3 v. Pacers | Top | 118-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
8* Houston (6:05 ET): Indiana has been able to outperform its - admittedly small - expectations in the early part of the season, going 6-7 straight up. But that should change here as they play one of the league's best teams in Houston. It should be pointed out that prior to beating lowly Chicago (105-87) on Friday, the Pacers had lost four in a row - failing to cover the spread all four times. Houston comes in having won five in a row after last night's double revenge spot where they finally beat Memphis, 111-96, as seven-point favorites. Hitting the road w/o rest should not be a problem for the Rockets, who are far more talented that their counterparts this evening. Lay the short number. Houston is now 10-3 SU overall, which has them tied w/ Golden State for the best record in the Western Conference. Of course, they opened the season by upsetting the Warriors, rallying back from a big second half deficit in the process. They're 9-1 SU against everyone besides Memphis thus far w/ the only loss coming at home to Philadelphia, a game in which the Sixers couldn't miss (55.0 FG%). Last night, it was James Harden leading the way w/ 38 points and the game was even more of a rout than what's let on by the final score as Houston led by 23 entering the fourth quarter. They made 16 three-pointers, the fifth straight game w/ at least that many, tying their own NBA record set just last season. This team is not known for defense, but they had 14 steals and forced 20 turnovers last night. Indiana actually swept Houston last season, so there is a revenge angle in play here tonight for the road faves. Houston shot shockingly poor in both games against the Pacers last season (36.4%, 41.0%) and went just 21 of 84 (25%) from three-point range. They should easily top those numbers tonight. Indiana allowed every opponent to shoot 50% or better during the four-game losing streak, before getting the benefit of facing the Bulls, who shot a woeful 39.8% from the floor. Save for games against the Bulls and Kings (league's two worst teams?), every Indiana opponent has scored at least 101 pts, save for one. Here they face a team that ranks #2 in offensive efficiency, trailing only (of course) Golden State. The only way to beat Houston is to play good defense, but the Rockets actually come into this game w/ a better defensive efficiency rating than the Pacers. 8* Houston |
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11-12-17 | George Mason v. Louisville -18.5 | Top | 61-72 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
10* Louisville (2:00 ET): To say it was a tumultuous offseason for Louisville just might be the understatement of the decade. Rick Pitino was forced to resign in disgrace amidst scandal that had engulfed the program. So too were multiple assistants. But while the coaching staff may have changed, there is still plenty of talent remaining on the court. New HC David Padgett (just the third L'ville HC since 1971!) inherits a Top 20 team with numerous returning starters back and I have no reason to believe that the Cardinals won't be very good this season. Early on, I think we'll be able to take advantage of some soft lines as the expectation is L'ville might "fall on its face." That's not going to happen though and my read for this opener is that they're severely undervalued. This is a deeper L'ville team compared to last year. Just how much they'll miss Pitino's coaching remains to be seen, but my guess is that it's something that's being overstated. Padgett can lean on preseason award winners Deng Adel and Quentin Snyder, both of whom averaged more than 12 PPG last season, not to mention a trio of returning starters - Ray Spalding, V.J. King and Anas Mahmoud. Furthermore, there is a trio of freshman and one key incoming transfer (Dwayne Sutton) that should bolster the depth. Again, this is a very talented team. As long as Padgett can block out the distractions, the Cardinals are going to win plenty of games this year and possibly nap second place (behind Duke) in a loaded ACC. George Mason (forgot to mention them!) is the first opponent for Padgett and Louisville. The Patriots have already played a game, winning Friday by just two (67-65) over Lafayette. The game was won on a pair of free throws w/ just six seconds left. GMU has some quickness, but will be severely overmatched inside as L'ville has a massive size advantage w/ four players checking in at 6'6" or taller. George Mason's tallest player in the starting lineup is 6'7" (Goanar Mar) and there really isn't any other bigs to speak of beyond him. The Patriots won on Friday in large part to Lafayette shooting only 42.2% from the field. Louisville will shoot much better than that thanks to the advantage down low and that will eventually wear the underdog down. 10* Louisville |
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11-11-17 | Clippers v. Pelicans -7 | Top | 103-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (7:05 ET): The Clippers really let me down last night, failing to even cover in Oklahoma City. They lost 120-111, dropping to 1-6 SU and ATS their last seven games, following a 4-0 SU/ATS start. They are also now 2-14 ATS the L3 seasons following three consecutive games in which they went Over the total. Last night's game went Over, so that trend is still in play tonight as they visit New Orleans. The Pelicans just concluded a 4-0 ATS road trip (against mostly bad teams), going 3-1 SU as well. They did lose the last game, by four at Toronto, but should be able to take advantage here of the Clips playing in the second night of a back to back. It may seem strange to see the Pelicans favored over LA, but I believe the line is justified. The Clippers defense has been very poor each of the L2 games and it doesn't appear as if that is something that can be fixed quickly. They allowed both the Spurs and Thunder to shoot better than 51% from the floor. More troubling for them is that the Pelicans have shot better than 50% each of its last two games. Paul George, who hadn't done much of anything for OKC, went off for 42 pts last night vs. LA and it was the Thunder's highest scoring game of the year. Really, it was a pretty misleading final considering the Clips trailed by as many as 20 pts in the second. This is their third road game in five nights and they're short-handed to boot. Patrick Beverly (knee), Danilo Gallinari (glute) and Milos Teodosic (plantar fascia) have all been ruled out tonight. It's been a bit of a strange season for the Pelicans thus far as they are 5-3 SU on the road, yet only 1-3 SU on the road. They are 2-0 ATS against LY's NBA Finalists here, however, having beaten Cleveland and covered against Golden State. This team has two of the best players in the league, Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins, who can dominate the interior. Guard Jrue Holliday also had 32 pts and 11 assists Thursday against Toronto. I don't think New Orleans will have any issue scoring in this game. After all, despite the home record, they are averaging 110 PPG here. Assuming they can slow down and unrested and short-handed foe, it should not be an issue covering tonight. 10* New Orleans |
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11-11-17 | Notre Dame v. DePaul +9 | Top | 72-58 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
8* DePaul (4:00 ET): While virtually all of the South Bend faithful will be paying attention to the football team's huge Top 10 showdown w/ Miami tonight, Notre Dame's basketball team comes into the season ranked #14 in the land. It's a solid starting point, but probably a bit too high in my estimation and it's not like the Fighting Irish have ever been a particularly great road team under HC Mike Brey. Therefore, I'm making the call to take underdog DePaul and the points in this season opener. This will be one of the bigger games of the year for the Blue Demons, who are unveiling their brand new arena in Chicago. For Notre Dame, it's simply "just another game" and not one they'll have much interest in winning by any kind of significant margin. DePaul is off a 9-23 SU season, but they have four starters back, at least giving them some much-needed experience. They should be extremely motivated here. "We want to play well and win the game. We want to show that the change of DePaul's culture is real," said Blue Demons' junior guard Eli Cain. He added "It's not just talked about. It's not just something we can go around saying in interviews and put on social media. We want to show that that's the real deal." Furthermore, the Blue Demons haven't beaten Notre Dame in some time. They've lost nine straight times to the Irish, their longest losing skid EVER in the 105 all-time meetings and are just 1-8 ATS in those games. But it will be a stronger DePaul team than per usual taking the court Saturday, one that not only has four returning starters, but also three key transfers. Led by senior Bonzie Colson, Notre Dame is thinking Final Four this season. Last year's team only made it to the Round of 32 (eliminated by West Virginia), but the two years before that, they made it all the way to the Elite 8. Again, my view is the Irish are slightly overrated coming into this season. The team was picked to finish third in the rugged ACC (by the media), behind Duke and UNC, but I think it's a VERY thin line between third and seventh in the league and the Irish could finish anywhere in between. They are only 3-8 ATS the L11 times they have been a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points, losing five of those games outright. They've also failed to cover in any of their last three games vs. Big East opponents. Take the points here in what should be a close game. 8* DePaul |
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11-10-17 | Austin Peay v. Vanderbilt -25 | Top | 54-73 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
8* Vanderbilt (9:30 ET): Vandy typically owns one of the more unique homecourt advantages in all of College Basketball and we should see that on display in the season opener against overmatched Austin Peay. The Commodores were a NCAA Tournament team a year ago, their first under HC Bryce Drew, and once again figure to be a factor in the SEC. Don't let the pointspread scare you here as Vandy is 6-1 ATS the last seven times it has had to lay at least 12.5 points at home while Austin Peay is 1-6 ATS the last seven times they've gotten that many. The Commies are also 25-7 SU, 18-10 ATS the L2 years here in Nashville. Austin Peay has a brand new HC (1st time since 1990) and a pretty young roster to boot. They're really "up against it" tonight. Last year ended in heartbreak for Vandy when Matthew Fisher-Davis inexplicably fouled Northwestern's Bryant McIntosh in a tie game when there were just 14.6 seconds remaining in a 1st round NCAA Tournament matchup. Fisher-Davis was arguably the team's best player LY and he's back for 2017-18, ready to build on a 13.9 PPG scoring average. The All-SEC guard should also have some help up front w/ the triumvirate of Clevon Brown, Djery Baptiste and Ejike Obinna. If even one of those players steps up, it should be a good year for the Commies. Also, there is Jeff Roberson, who is in-arguably the team's best two-way player. It's a new era for Austin Peay as Dave Loos is done patrolling the sideline, which he occupied since 1990! Former South Carolina assistant Matt Figger replaces him and has a lot of work to do considering all the newcomers on the roster. Figger also will likely be implementing the defensive system learned under Frank Martin at South Carolina and that's going to take time and there will be growing pains. Especially here as Vandy has a number of holdovers that can shoot the ball, plus two impressive newcomers in Saben Lee and Max Evans. This should turn into a blowout rather quickly. 8* Vanderbilt |
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11-10-17 | Clippers +6 v. Thunder | Top | 111-120 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (9:35 ET): Oklahoma City's woes against the Western Conference continued last night w/ a 102-94 loss in Denver. Now, it's REALLY getting hard for me to justify them being close to the top of my personal power rankings as that loss drops them to 4-7 SU on the year, even though they have outscored opponents by a decent margin. But it's now four straight losses (and counting?) and their record vs. conference foes is now an ugly 0-6 SU and ATS. Tonight, they host a fellow contender (Clippers) and I want no part of laying points w/ the Thunder right now. Certainly not w/ LA on its own losing skid right now (three games), making them just as desperate. This is a matchup where you almost HAVE to take the points. I will. The Clippers started the year looking great. They were 4-0 SU and ATS, leaving many to ask "Who needs Chris Paul, anyway?" Well, turns out that question is as silly as it reads as ever since the Clips are just 1-5 SU/ATS, leaving them at .500 overall. The three straight losses came to Memphis, Miami and at San Antonio. I played against them in the last one, but it's interesting to note they've opened as bigger dogs here than what they closed at for that Spurs game. That doesn't make a ton of sense to me, quite frankly. Like the Thunder, LA has outscored its opponents by a decent margin this year, which means they are better than their overall record. While it was just one bad quarter vs. the Spurs that doomed them, shouting could reportedly be heard afterward in the Clippers locker room, leading me to to believe they will be an angry and motivated bunch tonight. The Clippers fell victim to some red hot Spurs' shooting the other night (15 of 28 from three-point range), but they should count on that NOT being the case here as OKC came into last night's game shooting a dismal 42.5% from the field its L5 games. They shot right around that percentage Thursday and managed only 19 pts in the fourth quarter to lose 102-94. They've now failed to score even 100 pts in four consecutive games. This situation clearly favors the road team as OKC is playing w/o rest after dealing with the high altitude of Denver. The Clippers last played Tuesday. Both teams are a bit banged up, but the bottom line is that I expect a close game here and am not sure how the oddsmakers could favor the Thunder this significantly, given the situation. I'd take the points here no matter which team was the underdog. 10* LA Clippers |
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11-10-17 | Northern Iowa v. North Carolina -16.5 | Top | 69-86 | Win | 100 | 20 h 8 m | Show |
8* North Carolina (7:00 ET): Defending Nat'l Champion UNC has to start the season w/o the services of PG Joel Berry II, but still shouldn't have much difficulty here w/ Northern Iowa. Berry is certainly a key loss; he was named Most Outstanding Player in LY's Final Four and it's a completely silly reason why he is out (broke his hand punching a door after reportedly losing a video game!), but nevertheless there's still plenty of talent on hand for the ninth ranked team in the country. It was another strong recruiting class, which will be counted on to replace the top four rebounders from a year ago. Seventh Woods and Jalek Felton will be the ones charged w/ filling Berry's lost production and, if anything, because of that injury the Tar Heels are undervalued for their opener. Now Northern Iowa is no stranger to pulling upsets. Two years ago, they even beat UNC, but that was at home. Last year was an ugly 85-42 loss in Chapel Hill and while it may not get that bad again this year, clearly the Panthers are outclassed here. Ben Jacobson's team was a disappointing 14-16 SU overall last season and thus they enter 2017-18 w/ reduced expectations compared to previous seasons. Last year's team was also a very poor 10-19-1 ATS at the betting window. While that usually results in a better mark the following year, the fact is the Panthers were just terrible as underdogs a season ago, going 3-10 SU and getting outscored by 17 pts per game. You may want to wait until MVC play begins to start betting this team. UNI is picked for second this season in the Missouri Valley as they have four returning starters plus an impressive freshman in Tywhon Pickford. But, still, they should be outclassed here as they'll struggled to keep pace and find success on the boards against what is certainly a taller and more athletic team. Typically, the Panthers are not very good away from Cedar Falls (9-17 SU, 10-16 ATS L2 seasons) and they really struggled to score on the road last year (59.1 PPG). Obviously, that's quite problematic when facing a foe that averaged 84.4 PPG last year, which was among the highest averages in the entire country. Last year's meeting saw UNI shoot only 33.3% from the floor and get to the FT line just eight times. 8* North Carolina |
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11-09-17 | Lakers +10.5 v. Wizards | Top | 95-111 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
10* LA Lakers (7:05 ET): I've written before that teams playing the second game of a back to back are often undervalued, especially if they're playing on the road. That looks to be the case here w/ the Lakers, who lost last night in Boston. Lonzo Ball and company fell behind big early (33-16 after 1Q) last night, but was able to make a game of it due to holding the Celtics to just 38.8% shooting. They got as close as two points. Yes, the Celtics lost TWO key players to injury (Horford, Tatum), but I was nevertheless impressed by the Lakers not giving up. Here, they're facing a Wizards team that is not only 0-5 ATS at home, but also 1-6 ATS when favored at any site w/ four outright losses. I'll grab the big number as Washington appears to be overvalued. The Wiz are off an incredibly embarrassing defeat, here at home, Tuesday night. They lost - as 9.5 pt chalk - to the Mavs. Not only did they lose, they lost by double digits. They allowed the Mavs, who came as losers of six in a row, to shoot 52% in the first half and score 64 points. That's pretty unforgiveable. Keep in mind the Mavs came into that game ranked 28th in the league in points per game (97.9) and wound up scoring a season-high. Defense continues to be an issue for this Wizards team as they're giving up 118.2 PPG at home. Again, they have yet to cover a game at home and are just 1-6 ATS laying points. By the way, this is the second time these teams have met this season. The Lakers won the first meeting, outright as a home dog, back on 10.25. It was 102-99 as 5.5-pt dogs, a game which went to OT after the Wiz were outscored by 10 in the fourth quarter. It was also one of the Lakers' best defensive efforts of the season. What Luke Walton needs right now though is #2 overall DC Lonzo Ball to start shooting the ball better. He's at only 29.5% this season, which would be the second lowest FG% over a player's first 11 games (w/ a min of 100 FG attempts) - EVER! You have to expect Ball to start shooting better moving forward. Considering the Wizards allowed 122 and 130 in home losses previous to Washington, there's no doubt in my mind that the Lakers will be able to put up enough points to cover here. They showed they can play defense against the Wiz in that first meetings, thus look for another close game. 10* LA Lakers |
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11-08-17 | Knicks v. Magic -5 | Top | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:05 ET): On the short list of pleasant, early-season surprises, I present the Magic. They're 6-4, which is tied for the third best record in the Eastern Conference right now. That WL record was even better before they dropped B2B games (at home), to Chicago and Boston. The latter loss is certainly excusable, considering the run the Celtics are on right now, but beating the Bulls would seem to be a prerequisite for being truly taken seriously. Another surprising 6-4 team in the East is the Knicks, who invade Orlando tonight off B2B wins, the latest coming last night against Charlotte. Interestingly, the Knicks trailed by double digits entering the 4th quarter in each of their last two wins, making it quite the improbable win streak for them. I hate the situation they're in tonight and will fade accordingly. Just to illustrate how rare an achievement the Knicks have pulled off here, this is the first time they have EVER won B2B games when trailing by DD entering the 4Q in the shot-clock era (1954-)! It's the first time they've won B2B games when trailing by 15+ (at any point) in both since '06. Last night saw them rally back from 15 down to beat Charlotte at home, led by Kristaps Porizingis' 28 pts, which has his scoring average at exactly 30.0 PPG through 10 games. No Knick has ever averaged that many through the first 10 games - ever! Three nights ago, the team rallied from 19 back to beat Indiana, also at MSG. The first of three wins, again at MSG, came at the expense of lowly Phoenix. I know Knicks fans are DYING to cheer about anything right now and it's impressive that the team has won 6 of its last 7 (started 0-3). But, I'm just not ready to buy in yet. They are still have a negative efficiency rate. As I said earlier, I hate the situation tonight from the Knicks' perspective. Yes, teams are often undervalued playing in the second game of a B2B. But that's not the case here. If anything, it's Orlando that's being undervalued here. Despite B2B sub-90 pt efforts, they are still averaging 109 PPG. On the defensive end, they're holding opponents to just 41.9% shooting here at home and that's a problem for a Knicks team that comes in averaging only 95.7 PPG on the road. (Again, the entirety of this Knicks' win streak has been at MSG). The Magic have also been off since Sunday. The Knicks will also not come anywhere near the 60.0 FG% we saw last night while Orlando should drastically improve upon its own 36.3 FG% from its last game. 10* Orlando |
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11-07-17 | Clippers v. Spurs -3.5 | Top | 107-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
10* San Antonio (8:35 ET): Early on, it appeared as if the Clippers wouldn't miss Chris Paul at all. They opened 4-0 SU, but reality has since set it w/ them losing four of five. The most recent defeat came at home Sunday afternoon, 104-101 to Miami, a game in which they trailed by as many as 25. Things get no easier for the Clips tonight as they must travel to San Antonio. The Spurs' season has followed a similar pattern to their counterparts here as they started 4-0, only to then drop four in a row. But they've bounced back w/ B2B wins over Charlotte and Phoenix here at home. They may have actually trailed the Suns at halftime (by four), but the second half was a complete rout w/ Greg Popovich's team building a lead that got as high as 27 pts. I'll lay a short number here w/ them at home. San Antonio is uncharacteristically not near the top of the league in defensive efficiency. That has a lot to do w/ the fact Kwahi Leonard has yet to suit up this season. He's been ruled out for tonight, as has PG Tony Parker, but there is enough holdover talent here to keep winning. Remember that last Thursday, they led Golden State by 19 before letting the game slip away (lost 112-92). Despite the lack of efficiency, the Spurs are still #5 in the league in points allowed (100.0 per game). The defense was on full display Sunday vs. Phoenix when they allowed just 13 points in a critical third quarter. LaMarcus Aldridge is having a fine year here, averaging 22.4 PPG (team-high) on 48.3% shooting (also a team-high). The entirety of the Clippers' 1-4 stretch was at home, which is not a good sign. The lone win was against league-worst Dallas as well. In fact, the Clips have played only two road games all year and one was against the Lakers, which really shouldn't count (teams share the Staples Center). So that leaves them having played only one "true" road game and it was a one-point win over Portland. San Antonio is notoriously one of the toughest places to play in the league and all things considered this is a really short number. Note LA is 2-12 ATS after going Over in three straight games, something they have done coming into tonight. 10* San Antonio |
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11-05-17 | Hornets +5.5 v. Wolves | Top | 94-112 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (8:05 ET): Second week in a row that I'm using the Hornets as my top play of the week. Last Sunday, it was a 120-113 win at the expense of overachieving Orlando, which begat a three-game win streak for them. That came to an end Friday w/ a close loss in San Antonio where they just missed out on covering as 4.5-pt pups (lost 108-101). Speaking of "just missing out on covering," the T'wolves got "backdoored" last night by Dallas as they were outscored 30-19 in the fourth quarter, resulting in "only" a 112-99 win. That was significant for me as I had the Mavericks +13.5! As good as Minnesota may have looked (for three quarters) last night, I'm willing to bank on that not being the case tonight against a better opponent. Take the points. I've said this many times before, but Charlotte was my pick for "Most Improved Team" coming into the year. Now, they didn't make any particularly splashy moves in the offseason, save for bringing in Dwight Howard. But the key here is they were quite unlucky last season, most notably going 0-9 SU in games decided by three points or less, not to mention 0-6 in overtime games. That's just not going to repeat itself this year. They've yet to play a game decided by three points or less this year, but this game certainly profiles as being a potentially tight affair where taking the points would seem prudent. Minnesota, who is 4-0 SU in games decided by three points or less so far, dropped to 0-4 ATS in the favorite role w/ last night's non-cover. In fact, the T'wolves have actually been outscored in spite of their 6-3 SU record. They're giving up a woeful 111.6 points per game and rank 27th in defensive efficiency, which helps explain the poor ATS record as chalk. Prior to last night, they'd yet to win a single game by more than six points this year. Charlotte ranks 6th in defensive efficiency and is a much better team when Cody Zeller is healthy (check the record!), which he is now. Also keep an eye on Jeremy Lamb, who has scored 15+ points in nine consecutive contests. One final note is that this is Minnesota's first win streak of more than three games dating back to 2012. Laying points, they're an excellent "fade" team right now. 10* Charlotte |
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11-04-17 | Mavs +13.5 v. Wolves | Top | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:05 ET): The "glory days" are most certainly over for the Mavs as what was once a playoff mainstay has declined severely and should be considered one of the worst teams in the Western Conference. Actually, in terms of WL record, there's nobody worse than the Mavericks (in either conference) as their 1-9 SU start is a league-worst. Perhaps just as embarrassing is the team's 2-8 ATS record and both covers came at the expense of Memphis in a home and home last week. They lost last night, albeit close, 99-94 to New Orleans at home as 4.5-pt dogs. Them being in the 2nd of a B2B here adds value as early in the season we often find teams in this situation getting way too many points from the oddsmakers. Minnesota is a team that I would hesitate to lay this many points with, at least until further notice. Case in point, they've already lost outright this season - as 10-pt chalk - to Indiana here at home (gave up 130 pts). This will be an improved team this year, maybe not to the degree originially expected (48 wins seemed a bit too much in my view), but all five wins so far have been by six points or less. Five of those have been by three points or less. So when the T'wolves win, they've been winning close. They achieved their largest MOV of the season on Wednesday, beating New Orleans 104-98 as 2-pt road dogs. I'd like to point out that Minnesota is 0-3 ATS so far in the favorite role. Dallas has been shooting the ball horrifically to this point as they are at only 41.5% from the floor, for the entire year. But facing the T'wolves should remedy that as they are allowing better than 50% shooting for the year, including over 55% here at home! This team has been VERY slow to pick up on Tom Thibodeau's defensive philosophy. In fact, they rank 29th in the league in defensive efficiency. This is as many points as Dallas was getting for a road game against Houston a couple weeks back. Minnesota is certainly not on Houston's level currently and they haven't won four straight games since 2012. Take the points. 10* Dallas |
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11-03-17 | Heat +5 v. Nuggets | Top | 94-95 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
10* Miami (9:05 ET): It's always interesting, at least early in the season, when you have two non-playoff teams from a year ago facing off and both think have postseason aspirations for the current year. That's what we have in this matchup w/ Denver hosting Miami. The Nuggets know they probably don't have a chance to crack the top four in the Western Conference, but beyond the Warriors, Spurs, Rockets and Thunder, they have as good a shot as any team out West (of making the playoffs). Over in the East, Miami actually finished with the fifth best point differential (+1.1 per game), but ended up at only .500 due to digging themselves to big of a first half hole (went 11-30 SU first 41 games). This year, it's the pointspread giving the Heat problems as they are the ONLY team in the league yet to cover a single time (0-5-2). But I'm calling for that to change here. Take the points. Ironically, the Heat were one of the best ATS teams in the league last season (funny how that works out!). I faded them in the season opener, which ended up being a 116-109 outright loss to Orlando. Since then, they've gone 3-3 SU, but the wins were over Indiana, Atlanta and Chicago, who you can expect to find near the bottom of the Conference by season's end. Also, all three wins were at home. In fact, the Heat haven't played a road game since the season opener in Orlando. They're set to embark on a six-game road trip, most of them out West, but one of the (literally!) big reasons I like them here is that Hassan Whiteside is back in the lineup. Making his 2017-18 season debut Wednesday, the big man had 13 pts and 14 rebounds in just 26 minutes as Miami beat Chicago 97-91. Denver is off an impressive win, 129-111 over Toronto, to start this season-long six-game homestand. Anything that could go right for the Nuggets there, did, and they led by 32 pts going into the fourth quarter. But I wouldn't look for such a performance to be duplicated anytime soon. I'm a little miffed at how much respect the Nuggets are commanding in the marketplace as they've been favored in every game since the season opener. They're just 3-4 ATS during the stretch w/ two of the wins coming against Sacramento and Brooklyn. The road team won both matchups between these two last season. 10* Miami |
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11-03-17 | Suns v. Knicks -3.5 | Top | 107-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
8* New York (7:35 ET): The Knicks are not good, but fortunately for them, neither are the Suns and that's who they're hosting Friday night at MSG. It was exactly a week ago when I took the Knickerbockers in an almost identical situation, that being laying a short number at home against a bad team. The result was a 107-86 beatdown of the Nets, which was NY's 1st ATS win of the season (started 0-3). They quickly followed that w/ upsets of the Cavs and Nuggets, but saw the three-game win streak come to an end Wednesday when Houston showed up and blew them out. I like this spot as a bounce back as the Suns have overachieved since making an early season coaching change. They're 5-0 ATS (4-1 SU) for interim HC Jay Triano. But I don't think anyone thinks this is the start of something big and thus I'll fade them here. Lay the points. Under Triano, Phoenix has averaged 113 PPG. But they've faced some bad defensive teams during this stretch and scored 122 in B2B games. One of those was against Brooklyn. The other, which took place Wednesday, saw them battle back from a 20-point deficit to defeat Washington. That comeback was led by TJ Warren, who finished w/ a career-best 40 points. Again, not to "beat a dead horse," but I expect regression to start taking hold here. This is not a good team and it's either them or Sacramento that will finish in the basement of the Western Conference. This was a team that posted only ONE three-game win streak last season and all three games were at home. The Knicks are off a horrific defensive effort as they allowed Houston to sink 19 three-pointers in the 119-97 loss. The good news is that NY is 16-12 ATS the L3 seasons after allowing 115+ points their previous game. Kristaps Porzingis was unable to finish the game Wednesday due to being sick and while he's currently not a lock to play, he is listed as probable. So I expect far more from him than the 19 points he scored against the Rockets. This is also a bit of a revenge spot for the Knicks, who twice lost to Phoenix last season, both times by just two points. The Knicks won't get my endorsement too often, but for the second Friday in a row, they're being undervalued (against a bad team) at home. 8* New York |
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11-01-17 | Bucks v. Hornets -3.5 | Top | 121-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Milwaukee let me down last night, big time, so I'm going after them here. Actually, that's not the sole reason as even had they beaten the Thunder at home Tuesday night, they'd still find themselves playing the 2nd game of a B2B here, on the road, against a team I feel is set to be among the most improved in the league this year. The Hornets are in off B2B wins here, first cashing as my *10* Game of the Week on Sunday (over Orlando), then upsetting Memphis (on the road) the following night. As I've written about previously, Charlotte is a much better team when Cody Zeller is in the lineup and it's no coincidence that the team has won both games since he returned from his knee injury. Now they're back at home and I'll lay the short number. As alluded to at the top, the Bucks did not play well last night. They were soundly beaten at home, 110-91 by Oklahoma City, as 2.5-pt dogs. "The Greek Freak," Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to put up MVP-like numbers (28-8-3 last night), but the problem is that the Bucks are not a deep team. That became obvious last night when he had to go to the bench early due to foul trouble. The Bucks were just 1 of 14 from three-point range at one point and never really did get back in the game after falling behind by double digits in the 1st quarter. They trailed by 18 at the half, at home, mind you. It's not as if OKC had been overtly impressive prior to last night's game either. Milwaukee is also going to miss Greg Monroe, who is out for at least 12 days. Him not making his usual presence felt in the paint last night really hurt the Bucks - at both ends. This is also an early season revenge spot for the Hornets, who lost 103-94 (as 6.5-pt dogs) in Milwaukee back on 10.23. They did not have Zeller for that contest and shot just 42.3% from the field. It wasn't exactly a banner shooting night yday either, but Charlotte was able to overcome a double digits deficit and going just 41.6% from the floor to beat Memphis 104-99 Monday night. Keep in mind that the Grizzlies had not lost a home game before Monday. Kemba Walker led the way w/ 27 points after going for 34 Sunday vs. Orlando. Believe it or not, but Dwight Howard also looks revitalized here. I say that even though he's off - easily - his worst game in a Hornets' uniform. I expect him to play much better tonight, especially because he won't have to deal w/ Monroe. Charlotte is also playing excellent defense so far as opponents are shooting just 40.9% against them for the year! They are top six in defensive efficiency, which is far ahead of Milwaukee, who ranks just 19th. 10* Charlotte |
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10-31-17 | Thunder v. Bucks +1.5 | Top | 110-91 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): Two teams w/ lofty 2017-18 expectations meet in Milwaukee Tuesday as the Bucks host the Thunder. OKC is coming off a whitewashing of Chicago, 101-69 on the road, but let's keep in mind the opponent there and the fact that the Thunder are still only 3-3 SU on the young season w/ their three wins coming against three very bad Eastern Conference teams (Knicks, Pacers, Thunder). As for Milwaukee, they've lost to Cleveland and Boston, a sign that they may not be ready to leap into the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference just yet. But I like the value here on them at home as this will be the 1st time since the season opener (won 108-100 over Boston) that they are NOT favored. OKC has its version of a "Big 3" this year (Westbrook, Anthony, George), but Milwaukee has the NBA's leading scorer in Giannis Antetokounmpo (34.7 PPG) and he just may be the best player on the court tonight, which is saying something. Coming off a lopsided result like Saturday may not bode well here for the Thunder. They are just 3-8 ATS the L3 seasons after a game where they held the opponent to 85 points or less. They may not have an opponent shoot as poorly as the Bulls (28.2%) did Saturday, the rest of the season. It's interesting that in all three wins this year, OKC's opponent has shot the ball horrendously, including a 33.7% effort from Indiana last week. Opponents will certainly not go on shooting under 42% for the year against the Thunder, so take those defensive numbers w/ a "grain of salt." Facing the league's leading scorer is bound to affect those defensive numbers. Antetokounmpo has scored 30 or more pts in five of the first six games and additionally is averaging 10.7 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game. No player in league history had ever previously averaged 34-10-5 over his team's first six games! Now OKC has Russell Westbrook, who already has three triple doubles in the first six games, also a first in league history. But lost in the fact that the Thunder have benefited from some truly horrific shooting performances from their opponents is the fact they haven't shot the ball all that well themselves. Only once this year have they shot 50.0% in a game. Every other game has seen them at 48% or below. Tonight, they face a team that is third in the league in both effective FG% and true shooting percentage. I'm not ready to buy into OKC as any kind of defensive stalwart yet and w/ this being their third road game in five nights, I see them struggling to stop the "Greek Freak" and company. 8* Milwaukee |
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10-30-17 | Wolves -2.5 v. Heat | Top | 125-122 | Win | 100 | 19 h 10 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (7:35 ET): The T'wolves came into the season w/ a lot of hype and a projection befitting a top five team in the Western Conference. Personally, I thought those expectations were pretty lofty. Early returns haven't exactly been what management had hoped for, as the team currently sits at 3-3 SU w/ every win close (by three points or less). Two of those were at Oklahoma City's expense, including one on Friday at home. I should point out something about the team's previous two games, however, both of which were losses. Jimmy Butler missed both games and though he's new to this team, the absence was certainly felt. Against OKC, Butler played a team-high 38 minutes and scored 13 of his 25 pts in the 4Q. He was clearly the best player for the T'wolves, which is saying something considering Karl-Anthony Towns also went for 33 points and 19 rebounds. Miami is just 2-3 SU despite playing all but one game at home. Their lone road game was the season opener, where I played against them, and they lost outright at Orlando. They quickly bounced back w/ a two-game win streak, but those wins happened to come at the expense of Indiana and Atlanta, two of the very worst teams the Eastern Conference has to offer. They've since lost to both the Spurs (by 17) and Celtics (by 6). Against the spread, the Heat are 0-4-1 ATS so far, a far cry from last year when they finished as one of the league's top teams at the betting window. With Butler in the lineup, Minny is clearly a better team. The fact the team is 3-1 SU in the lineup definitely means something. Meanwhile, Miami is going to be w/out one of its top players Monday, that being Hassan Whiteside, who has been out since the opener. The Heat trailed by 11 going into the fourth quarter against Boston and were held below 100 pts the first time this season. Perhaps its reasonable to expect a bounce back on the offensive end here, but I see a team that lacks the firepower to compete w/ the T'wolves right now and Whiteside's absence will continue to loom large on the defensive end. Minnesota isn't even shooting the ball that well yet, and still is averaging 106.8 PPG. 10* Minnesota |
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10-29-17 | Magic v. Hornets -3.5 | Top | 113-120 | Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (6:05 ET): Are the Orlando Magic the best team in the Eastern Conference? Well, according to record and point differential they are, but it's obviously way too early to start drawing any real conclusions from that. Still, tip your cap to a franchise that has done nothing since Dwight Howard left town back in 2012. The Magic have opened 4-1 SU and are outscoring opponents by a shocking 10.8 point per game margin. That margin drastically improved w/ a somewhat shocking result Friday night, a 114-87 win over the Spurs (as 5.5-pt home dogs). They've also beaten Cleveland, by 21 point, also at home. But they've also lost a game at Brooklyn. To me, it's time to "sell high" on Magic stock as here they're facing a team I've proclaimed as one of the most likely to improve in 2017-18. Charlotte was an unlucky 36-46 SU last year. I say unlucky b/c they actually outscored their opponents over the course of the season, despite finishing 10 games below .500. The issue was that they were 0-9 SU in games decided by three points or less and 0-6 SU in overtime games. It's interesting to note that in their 48-34 season two years ago, they went 5-0 SU in OT games. This year, largely due to multiple injuries, has gotten off to a disappointing start. Minus Nicolas Batum (out 6-8 wks), Cody Zeller, Michael Carter-Williams (also out indefinitely), Treveon Graham and Julyan Stone, the team lost Friday at home to Houston by a score of 109-93 (were 2.5-pt dogs). The Hornets that did play did not shoot well (37.5% overall) particularly in the second quarter when they missed 18 of 22 shots. Note, however, that it was still a four-point game entering the 4Q. Thankfully, it appears as if Zeller will return here. That's huge as the Hornets were a completely different (i.e. better) team w/ him in the lineup LY. He's missed the L4 games due to a bone bruise on his right knee. Prior to the loss Friday, the Hornets were 2-0 at home, winning both games by double digits. They are also 21-15 ATS coming off a DD loss the L3 seasons. Orlando was a stunning 57.1% from the floor against San Antonio, including 11 of 23 on three-point attempts. Meanwhile, the Spurs shot just 33.7% overall and were 4 of 24 from beind the arc. There may not be a game the rest of the season where the Magic enjoy such a decided edge in shooting percentage. They are a virtual lock to decline tonight and that's a big reason while I'll lay a short number w/ the home team here. 10* Charlotte |
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10-28-17 | Rockets +1.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 89-103 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
8* Houston (8:05 ET): I'm a little bit surprised that the Rockets are off a win here as I though last night's matchup (in Charlotte) would be conducive to defeat. But they won going away, 109-93 as three-point favorites to improve to 5-1 SU on the young season. They are w/o Chris Paul for an indefinite period of time, but remember they didn't have him last year and won 55 games. They've pulled out two come from behind victories in the early going, the first in the season opener at Golden State and then earlier this week at Philly. Early in the season, I don't think back to backs matter as much and in fact, the Rockets look to be underrated in this spot against a Memphis team that just struggled in a home and home w/ lowly Dallas (went 0-2 ATS). I think the wrong team is favored here. The Rockets shot an ungodly 22 of 57 from three-point range in last night's win w/ James Harden going for a triple double as well (27-11-10). They beat a Charlotte team that I have a ton of respect for, even though the Hornets are dealing with multiple unfortunate injuries right now. Now will the Rockets be as prolific from behind the arc this evening? Probably not, but I'm envisioning they won't have to be. Memphis is notoriously one of the weaker three-point shooting teams in the league, even as they move towards the kind of faster pace that has engulfed the modern NBA. In two wins over the Grizzlies last year, the Rockets "doubled up" on points from behind the three-point line, outscoring them 102-51 in that department, Defensively, Houston was strong last night as well, holding Charlotte to 31.3% shooting in the first half, including 4 for 22 from the floor in quarter number two. Memphis, like Houston, has a win over Golden State. But they also just lost at Dallas and then failed to cover against the Mavs in the second game of a home and home Thursday (I had the Mavs plus the points Thurs). They've now failed to break 100 pts in three consecutive games (trouble when playing Houston). This is also a rematch from a 98-90 Memphis' win in Houston from earlier in the week. I cashed Memphis there, but it's important to realize they ended the game on a 20-2 run (won 98-90) after trailing by as many as 10 in the fourth quarter. They were also eight-point underdogs in the contest, so needless to say there's been a dramatic swing in price for the rematch, one that can not be simply explained away by change in venue. The Rockets are the better team here and getting points, I'm on them. 8* Houston |
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10-27-17 | Nets v. Knicks -2.5 | Top | 86-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
10* New York (7:05 ET): The sorry Knicks are only winless team left in the league as they've lost their first three games by an average of 15.3 points per game. They're dead last in scoring (93.3 PPG) and speculation has already begun that HC Jeff Hornacek might be fired if they lose this game. So, needless to say, there's a little bit of motivation here. Brooklyn will be welcomed into MSG tonight, fresh off a stunning upset of Cleveland Wednesday night. That marked the Nets' fourth consecutive cover, a streak the likes of which we rarely saw in last season's moribund 20-62 (SU) campaign. In fact, there were only two times all of last year that the Nets covered four consecutive times. Not once did they cover five in a row. So, now seems like a good time to fade them and coincidentally, at the same time, it's a great spot to "buy low" on the Knicks. These area rivals have split the eight H2H meetings the L2 seasons, including a 2-2 mark in 2016-17. The Knicks won the first two last year with the Nets then squaring things away w/ a pair of wins in March. Note that for LY's first meeting, the Nets came in riding a 3-game ATS win streak, were off an upset win (vs. Minnesota) and promptly lost by 14 here at the Garden. It's certainly a bit of a surprise to see them w/ more wins than losses currently, given they lost PG Jeremy Lin on Opening Night. This is a better team compared to LY's version (how could it not be?), but I assure you that the "L's" will begin to pile up. They are just 4-10 ATS the previous two seasons when facing a team averaging less than 98 PPG. The Knicks are still trying to figure things out in this post-Carmelo Anthony era. At least, there's no debate now as to whom their best player is, as Kristaps Porzingis is averaging 25.3 PPG, which is second most in the league! I expect the Knicks' offense to get going tonight as the Nets are not a good defensive team. Despite the surprising 3-2 SU/4-1 ATS start, Brooklyn has allowed at least 107 pts in all five game so far. The Knicks did manage to score exactly 107 in their only home game thus far and I'm not going to put a ton of stock into the two 21-pt road losses seeing as they came against Boston and OKC, who both project as Top 10 teams this year. Brooklyn remains a bottom 10 team and staring at an 0-4 start that would likely get their coach canned, I believe the Knicks come up big here. 10* New York |
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10-26-17 | Mavs +8 v. Grizzlies | Top | 91-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:05 ET): Suffice to say, the "glory days" are officially over for Mark Cuban's Mavs. I would think that if Dirk Nowitziki and the rest of the current roster walked into the "Shark Tank" studio tomorrow, Cuban would tell them "I'm out." The team got off to a rather ugly 0-4 SU and ATS start to the season, but last night they finally did crack into the win column w/ a 103-94 upset of Memphis (were 3-pt underdogs) at home. Now comes the second game of the home and home w/ the division rival Grizzlies and I'm going to call for the Mavs to cash - as underdogs - again. Obviously, with tonight's game being in Memphis, the oddsmakers are going to be more generous. That's good, because the Grizzlies are not a team I typically like to lay points with, especially this many. Memphis' start to the season was just the opposite of Dallas' as they opened 3-0 SU and ATS. I took them Monday in what turned out to be an upset of Houston on the road (no Chris Paul for the Rockets remember). It is worth nothing though that the Grizz trailed by as many as 10 in the fourth quarter of that game, before storming back to end the game on a 20-2 run! Yes, you have to tip your cap to David Fizdale's team for beating both Golden State and Houston thus far, but both wins came in the underdog role. Some trends that go against Memphis here are that they are 4-17 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive unders and 14-28 ATS off a division game. Last night, it was Dennis Smith Jr leading the way w/ 19 points and five assists for the Mavs in the 103-94 upset. Smith's team never trailed after taking a commanding 32-18 lead after the first quarter. Dallas is now 6-3 SU/ATS the L9 head to head meetings vs. Memphis and will be going for their third straight win and cover tonight. A major plus will be having Chandler Parsons back in the lineup after he was given last night off due to still not being medically cleared to play both games of a back to back. Dallas didn't have nearly the same kind of results against Golden State and Houston that Memphis did, but their other two losses both came by six points or fewer. This is some good early season value on a dog playing the second game of a home and home. 10* Dallas |
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10-25-17 | Jazz v. Suns +6 | Top | 88-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (10:05 ET): Coming into the year, the Suns were projected to be at the very bottom of the league and sure enough, there's already been plenty of turmoil in the first two weeks. HC Earl Watson was fired after the team started 0-3, prompting PG Eric Bledsoe to (now infamously) tweet "I don't want to be here anymore." Bledsoe told management that the tweet had nothing to do w/ the team, but rather him being at a hair salon w/ his girlfriend at the time! (Can't make this stuff up). That equivalent of "the dog ate my homework" didn't fool management, who immediately sent him home and it's now likely Bledsoe has played his last game w/ the team. We saw a positive response from those Bledsoe has left behind as Monday brought a 117-115 victory for the Suns (over the Kings). What the ongoing controversy has done here is create a little bit of value on this team. I'm taking the points tonight as they are facing a tired opponent. The opponent in question here is Utah, who started its season 3-0 ATS (2-1 SU). But the Jazz ran into the Clippers Tuesday night and were soundly beaten, 102-84 as five-point road underdogs. A lot of times, at least early in the season, we'll find teams that are undervalued in the second game of a back to back. That's not the case here though w/ Utah favored. The Jazz have not been able to top 100 pts since the season opener and the second of B2B road games isn't a likely spot for them to erase that trend. The current average of 95.8 PPG is second lowest in the league, ahead of only the Knicks. While some came into this year thinking the Jazz could still make the playoffs (8 seed?) despite an exodus of talent, I just don't see it as their division (Northwest) is tough w/ the other four teams all thinking playoffs as well. In addition to Gordon Hayward leaving for Boston, PG Dante Exum is out indefinitely and George Hill also missed last night's game and is listed as questionable for tonight. Give credit to the Suns for the way the played Monday. Yes, they may have won by only two points, but they came out clearly inspired after the coaching change and led by as many as 22 in the first quarter. We see this constantly in the NBA where teams tend to perform a bit better post-HC change as the players are motivated to either improve or maintain their current standing within the organization. Though 0-7 (SU) vs. Utah the previous two seasons, Phoenix has played them tough during this time, particularly last year when they covered all three games. None of the losses came by more than seven points and w/ Utah being both unrested and unable to blow the opposition out, they are prime fade material here. 10* Phoenix |
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10-24-17 | Knicks +9 v. Celtics | Top | 89-110 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
8* New York (7:35 ET): I cashed a live dog last night (Memphis) and some of the same aspects from that selection are in play here. Boston was a team that made "My Most Overrated List" coming into the year. Yes, the team that finished #1 in the Eastern Conference LY added Kyrie Irving. But they also lost a lot in the offseason and I do not believe the team is better off here in 2017-18. I certainly don't buy them as being better than Cleveland, who they lost to on Opening Night. That loss was made even worse by the horrific injury suffered by Gordon Hayward, who is done for the year. The following night, the Celtics lost in Milwaukee. They did then win for the 1st time, beating Philadelphia (as a dog!) on Friday. But back to the role of favorite tonight, I have little interest in backing them here. Now, it figures to be a long year for the Knicks. They've started 0-2, losing to Oklahoma City and Detroit. The loss to the Pistons, at home, took place Saturday. So, like the Celtics, they're well rested here. Something odd that took place between these Atlantic Division rivals last year is the road team won outright in three of the four meetings.One positive I see for the Knicks this year is that the Carmelo Anthony drama is now over (traded him to OKC), opening the door for Kristaps Porzingis to lead the team. Porzingis has scored 30+ pts in both games so far. No Knick has done that to start a season since Patrick Ewing almost a quarter century ago. Also, note the Knicks jumped out to a 21-pt lead over Detroit Saturday night. Enes Kanter is another player to watch here as he has averaged 13.4 points and 5.9 rebounds per game in his career against Boston. The Celtics have not shot the ball well so far (41.8% overall). Irving has really struggled the L2 games, going 14 for 42 overall including 3 of 12 from three-point range. Marcus Smart missed the Philly game w/ an ankle injury. While he is listed as probable to return here, we know Marcus Morris remains out. With only FOUR players back from LY's team, we knew there would be growing pains in Beantown. The Hayward injury has only exacerbated that and right now I want zero part of laying this many points with them. 8* New York |
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10-23-17 | Grizzlies +8 v. Rockets | Top | 98-90 | Win | 100 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
10* Memphis (8:05 ET): Houston is 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) and most impressive of all is they won the last two games w/o the services of Chris Paul. That's after beating the Warriors on opening night. So this is a team certainly coming into Monday w/ a lot of confidence. But tonight they'll be hosting a team that also holds a win over the Warriors, 111-101 as 8.5-pt dogs, that being Memphis. The Grizzlies only have two games under their belt so far, both wins, as they opened w/ a double digit win over New Orleans. This is a team that I expected to regress a bit in 2017, but as an underdog (like they are here), there's probably some value. They've split eight games w/ the Rockets the last two years and I see tonight's Southwest Division matchup being a close one. Take the points. Center Marc Gasol led the way against the Dubs w/ 34 points Saturday. Seven other players also scored in double figures. One of them, Mike Conley, only shot 3 of 14 from the floor. I'd certainly expect him to improve on the offensive end tonight. It was impressive that they held Golden State under 40 percent shooting and even more impressive that they led by as many as 19 points in the third quarter. Houston is w/o Paul (knee) indefinitely and that's eventually got to catch up with them. While they did win big Saturday here at home over Dallas (107-91), their first two wins were both by five points or less. The oddsmakers set lofty expectations for this team (55.5 wins) and even w/ a healthy Paul, I didn't think they'd live up to them. Yes, the components of last year's team are still here - most notably James Harden - and the defense seems to be much improved. They beat Golden State thanks to a rare Warriors' fourth quarter cold streak and the other two wins were against Dallas and Sacramento, two of the very worst teams in the West. I just think this spread is too high. 10* Memphis |
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10-21-17 | Blazers +3.5 v. Bucks | Top | 110-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
10* Portland (8:35 ET): Coming into the year, there were seven teams that I considered "locks" for the playoffs in the Western Conference: Golden St (obviously), Houston, San Antonio, OKC, Minnesota, Denver and the Clippers. Maybe I should start thinking about making it eight and completing the field as Portland is 2-0 SU w/ a pair of double digit road wins. Now critics can point to who those wins came against, that being Phoenix and Indiana, two of the worst teams in the league. But still, blowing them out by a combined 66 points is quite impressive. Remember the Blazers were the 8-seed last year (lost in 1st round to GSW) and the 5th seed the year before that. I like their chances of making it a perfect 3-0 SU road trip to start the year, as they draw Milwaukee in an ideal spot. Both teams are in the second game of a back to back here. Portland won 114-96 in Indiana Friday while the Bucks lost 116-97 here at home to Cleveland. That Milwaukee loss is likely to have a carryover effect as Bucks fans are thinking their team can be the Cavs' top challenger in the East this season, but last night's game said otherwise. Watching that game, it was pretty clear to me that the Bucks are not a deep team and lean too heavily on Giannis Antetokounmpo. "The Greek Freak" accounted for over one-third of his team's points last night, shooting 15 of 22 from the floor. Everybody else combined to go a woeful 23 of 60 (38.3%). The Bucks are 6-14 ATS the previous two seasons when off a SU loss as a favorite. Their first game saw them be the beneficiary of the opponent (Boston) being off a demoralizing loss, ironically also to Cleveland. Portland opened its year w/ the biggest Opening Night blowout in league history, beating Phoenix by 48 points. Then last night, they again dominated from start to finish, building an 18-point lead after three quarters and then coasting from there. In order to complete the perfect road trip, the Blazers will have to reverse a bit of recent history as they've not won here in Milwaukee since 2013 and were swept in the season series last year. But the two games last year were only decided by a combined 11 pts. Neither time did Portland shoot well, although they actually blew a 58-51 halftime lead in the visit here to the Bradley Center. I believe they will reverse the recent trend and pick up a win. Take the points. 10* Portland |
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10-19-17 | Knicks +12 v. Thunder | Top | 84-105 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 38 m | Show |
8* New York (8:05 ET): In an attempt to compete w/ the historically great Warriors, OKC has elected to join the "super team" fad, adding both Paul George and Carmelo Anthony in the offseason. Alongside Russell Westbrook, that triumverate will be among the most talented "Big 3" any team has outside of Oakland. But the negative of that is you're going to see inflated lines such as this one. Thus, there will often be value in FADING the Thunder, especially early on when all the new pieces are learning to gel. The Knicks being the opponent in tonight's season opener works two ways. Yes, no one is expecting anything from the Knicks this year. But because of that the line is even more inflated than I thought it would be and I'll gladly grab a double digit spread in Game 1. The Knicks have been a complete disaster even before Phil Jackson was foolish handed the keys to the organization. They are coming off B2B 50+ loss seasons and bordering on being irrelevant. However, with Anthony now gone, maybe they can now perhaps concentrate on moving forward? It was a winless preseason, but that hardly matters. Kristaps Porzingis was the Knicks' best player last year and w/ Anthony gone, he has an even better chance of individual success due to losing a ball-dominant teammate. The Anthony trade netted Enes Kanter, who is another good player. Again, I'm not so crazy to think NY can win this game outright, but the points are plentiful, particularly for a first game. For OKC, I like the George addition, but Anthony and Westbrook playing together will certainly be interesting. Both are ball dominant players and "this just in" ... there's only one ball. Westbrook carried the Thunder to 47 wins last season, so I do understand the projection of 54.5 for this season. But not sure they'll quite get there. It's a tough Northwest Division that they play in, plus I have them ranked as only the fourth best team in the West, behind Golden State, Houston and San Antonio. Depth is still a bit of a concern. The team had a (ever so slightly) negative efficiency rating last year (allowed more points per 100 possessions than they scored) and ranked only 17th offensively despite all of Westbrook's individual accolades. Going from one player (Westbrook) "carrying the load" to sharing the burden w/ two other former All-Stars is going to be a transition for the mercurial Westbrook and I just do not expect the Thunder to be a "well oiled machine" this early in the season. Anthony may try and "press" (to the detriment of the team) given that he's facing his former team here. 8* New York |
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10-18-17 | 76ers v. Wizards -7 | Top | 115-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:05 ET): Philadelphia, believe it or not, was the top ATS team in the league a year ago as they finished 49-33 at the betting window. That and all the young talent they've accumulated during this rebuilding process have them as a VERY trendy playoff pick for this season, which would be quite the remarkable achievement given they have not won more than 30 games any of the previous four campaigns. To me, their ceiling is the 8-seed, which only speaks to the lack of depth in the Eastern Conference. One of them teams that will assuredly finish above them is LY's Southeast Division Champs, the Wizards, who went 49-33 in the regular season before bowing out to the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Wiz did lose outright twice to Philly last year, but both of those games were on the road. Here at home, they beat them by 16 pts. |
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10-18-17 | Heat v. Magic +3 | Top | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:05 ET): I'm a bit surprised that - in some circles - the Magic are being discussed as a potential playoff darkhorse (for the 8-seed only). But that only speaks to the current state of the Eastern Conference. There certainly does seem like a logical argument for them to finish in the top eight as there are only seven teams likely to finish w/ winning records and this will be the first time in a LONG time the Magic aren't projected to be a last place team. (That dubious distinction belongs to Atlanta this season). I don't think they'll make it, mind you, but for tonight's season opener, there is plenty of value to be had w/ them as a home dog to rival Miami. The Magic have actually played the Heat tough the L2 seasons, splitting eight games, including taking three of four last year. Take the points here. Miami is one of the seven teams you have to think will make the playoffs in the East. Last year, they finished tied for the 8th spot (at 41-41) and had the 5th best point differential in the conference at +1.1 PPG. But they lost a tiebreaker to the Bulls and did not make the "tournament." This is now a "new era" on South Beach as Dwyane Wade joined his buddy LeBron James in Cleveland. The issue last season was that the Heat dug themselves too big of an early season hole. They did beat Orlando on Opening Night, 108-96 (as a three-point road dog), but would proceed to drop 30 of the next 40 games. Even a 13-game SU/ATS win streak that took place right before the All-Star Break was for naught. Looking at the actual matchup, Orlando has to be better defensively than they were a year ago. Defense was HC Frank Vogel's calling card in Indiana, so I do expect them to improve on that end of the floor. This was the league's worst ATS team a year ago, odd because it's not as if they're favored much. But I look for a far better performance at the pay window this year. I find it interesting that despite being a better team this year, they've gone from a three-point home favorite to a three-point home dog against the same opponent in consecutive season openers. Thanks to that 13-game win streak, Miami finished near the top of the league's ATS standings, but if you take that one run out, they were basically an average team at the betting window and very subpar overall. They were a road favorite only seven times in 2016-17. Look for the Magic to surprise here. 10* Orlando |
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10-17-17 | Celtics v. Cavs -3.5 | Top | 99-102 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (8:05 ET): Batten down the hatches here as we have a rematch of LY's Eastern Conference Finals w/ Kyrie Irving having "switched sides" from Cleveland to Boston. Needless to say, emotions will be running high at the Quicken Loans Arena Tuesday night. My play on the Cavs does come w/ a rather giant caveat, that being if LeBron James doesn't suit up, the play is off. So, please, be sure to pay attention to the news throughout the day and as soon as I hear something definitive, I'll try and provide an update. But assuming King James does play, then I feel the emotion of opening the season at home against a hated rival will carry his team to the SU win and cover. Lay the short number (again, provided James plays). It's not just Irving, but Boston has a LOT of new faces this year. It's quite rare to see a team that finished #1 in its conference totally remake its roster, but that's precisely what GM Danny Ainge did here. He shipped his best player (Isaiah Thomas) to Cleveland in order to get Irving. That deal also saw the Celtics have to part ways w/ Jae Crowder, a key interior presence and defender. It's now the Cavs that will benefit from his services. Ainge also signed Gordon Hayward, off a career-year in Utah (21.9 PPG), to a big deal. Having a lot of "shiny" new pieces always seems fun on paper, but don't be surprised if the Celtics underachieve in 2017-18. I say that knowing full well that LY's team ranked only 3rd in net efficiency in the East, behind Cleveland and Toronto. Last year's group was built to overachieve. To me, this year's group will be just the opposite. They have just FOUR returning players from 2016-17. They're going to miss Avery Bradley for sure. Certainly, I don't see this team matching LY's league-best 29-18-2 ATS record on the road. Cleveland also has a lot of new faces. In addition to getting Thomas and Crowder in the Irving trade, they signed Dwyane Wade (LeBron's best buddy) and Derrick Rose. Both those players are probably "over the hill" and won't mean much to the pointspread, but at least Wade will keep James happy. The starting lineup will also be different w/ both Tristan Thompson and JR Smith relegated to bench roles. Neither may be happy about it, but the team is better served this way. (Wade, likely at James' behest, took over Smith's starting role at SG). Kevin Love now plays center, meaning it's a smaller lineup, but that's when the Cavs are at their best. They shredded Boston in LY's ECF to the tune of 120.4 PPG. Again, provided LeBron plays, I'm "all in" on the Cavaliers here. For the record, J.R. Smith is on record as saying James is "gonna go." 8* Cleveland |
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06-12-17 | Cavs +9 v. Warriors | Top | 120-129 | Push | 0 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (9:05 ET): So it turns out that the Warriors will not finish the postseason a perfect 16-0 SU as they lost to the Cavs in Game 4, 137-116, thereby preventing them from pulling off the sweep. Despite still holding a commanding 3-1 series lead and returning home for Game 5 tonight, there's a curious amount of pressure on the Dubs, of course due to the fact that LY saw them blow a 3-1 series lead (first time in NBA Finals history) to these Cavs. Of the four games so far, only one hasn't been decided by double digits, but I'll call for a closer affair tonight as Cleveland appeared to have rediscovered its lost shooting touch Friday night. Take the points. Surprisingly, the Warriors are only 1-5 ATS this season following a double digit loss. They are 5-1 straight up in those same games, thus high pointspreads like the one we have here have generally come into play. Their defense was absolutely carved up in Game 4 as they allowed the Cavs not only to make a Finals record 24 three-pointers, but do so at an astounding 53.3% clip. For all the complaining about the officiating GSW did after the game, they actually attempted more free throws in the game than did the Cavs. A huge start to Game 4 was key for Cleveland and it should be noted the defending World Champs played the Warriors tough for much of Games 1 and 2 here in Oakland. Game 3 saw a blown six-point lead in the final three minutes at home and the Cavs were -12 in the two minutes LeBron James was off the court. If either of those two things had been rectified, the discussion of this series would be much different now. James averages 32.5 points per game in elimination contests, so expect another big game from him here. He's already averaging a triple double in these Finals. While the Cavs' record as an underdog is far from great this season, note that the majority of the games have come w/ James out of the lineup. I feel the pressure is on the Warriors here as another loss would bring up the ghosts of last season. I'm not saying the Cavs will win outright and extend the series tonight, but I certainly expect a close game. 10* Cleveland |
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06-07-17 | Warriors v. Cavs +4 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 14 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (9:05 ET): The defending World Champs appear to be in major trouble, down 0-2 to the Warriors. But let us not forget that the same scenario took place in LY's Finals, only for the Cavs to come back and take four of the next five games in (somewhat) improbable fashion. In fact, the results of the first two games last year, when the Warriors did NOT have Kevin Durant, were even more lopsided (combined 48 pt margin of victory) than what we've seen so far in this series (41 pts). So, Cleveland should not give up all hope - yet. Things now shift to Quicken Loans Arena, where they've been far stronger all year long, and notable is the fact that prior to the start of the series, they were to be favored here at home. After what transpired in the first two games, the oddsmakers have shifted from Cavs -2 to them now being a small home dog. Value! Take the points. Cleveland as a home dog is rare, provided LeBron James is in the lineup. He obviously will be for Game 3. James quietly turned in a triple double in Game 2 w/ 29 pts, 11 rebounds and 14 assists. Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving also contributed a combined 46 points. But what about the rest of the roster? How about just 38 total pts on 13 of 36 shooting. Those players have to give the team SOMETHING as it was more of the same in Game 1 as well. What we typically see from a "supporting cast" is better play at home, thankfully. Note the Cavs are 36-11 SU at home this year (including playoffs), winning by an average margin of 8.2 points per game. Virtually every player on the roster sees their shooting improve here, which is evident by a 48.6 overall FG% including 39.5% from three-point range. I mentioned earlier that Cleveland is rarely a home dog w/ James in the lineup. One such time came on Christmas Day (+3.5) against these Warriors as they came from behind to win outright, 109-108. Clearly, the Cavs also need to work on their defense and slowing the pace down. Easier said than done, but going back to LY's Finals, their five wins (including X-Mas) over GSW have seen them allow no more than 108 points every time. They can't win a game in the 130's. Good news is that they are 5-1 SU/ATS after allowing 130+ pts the previous game. I know the Dubs look invincible right now, but will they really "run the table" and go 16-0 (SU) in the playoffs? I'm still thinking "no!" 10* Cleveland |
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06-04-17 | Cavs +8.5 v. Warriors | Top | 113-132 | Loss | -102 | 59 h 34 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:05 ET): Shortly after a humbling 113-91 loss in Game 1, both LeBron James and Cavs HC Ty Lue were quick to remark that they "know" their team is capable of playing better. Certainly, it would be difficult to imagine the Cavaliers playing any worse. Thursday saw them shoot just 34.9% from the floor and turn the ball over 20 times (compared to just 4 TO's for GSW). Additionally, they were dominated early on the offensive glass. It goes w/o saying that you can't beat the Warriors when you allow them to attempt 20 more shots than you. Golden State wound up attempting 106 field goal attempts in Game 1, which is just insane. Another key here is that the public was largely on the underdog Cavs in Game 1. With the lopsided result, it appears as they (the public) have "abandoned ship" so-to-speak and now we're able to get a better number. Take the points in Game 2. James and Kyrie Irving certainly did their part for the Cavs in Game 1. The duo scored or assisted on 73 points on 58 shots w/ LeBron attempting a playoff-high number of field goals in the paint. Unfortunately, the rest of the team was just dreadful and that's putting it mildly. The Cavs players w/o the names "James" or "Irving" on the back of their uniforms combined for just 18 points on 3 of 28 shooting, including 1 of 10 from three-point range when neither of the two assisted. Considering the offensive efficiency we saw from the Cavs as a whole in the first three rounds (#1 overall, even ahead of GSW), it goes w/o saying that we should see marked improvement for Game 2. Tristan Thompson had 0 points and 4 rebounds. Whatever happened to Kyle Korver? On the defensive end, we also need some improvement from the Cavaliers. There were far too many easy layups from the Warriors in Game 1. Kevin Durant, in particular, had a field day en route to a game-high 38 points. What's crazy is that Klay Thompson was just 1 of 12 from the field and Draymond Green had only nine points. The Warriors actually only shot 42.5% as a team, but the key was the volume of attempts. They still had two quarters of 33+ points. For a frame of reference, in no other playoff game has GSW taken more than 91 FG attempts. Yes, the Dubs remain unbeaten in the playoffs and there's a certain "air" of invincibility surrounding this team right now. But, to me, that marks a good "go against" opportunity as you have to remember Cleveland held a double digit lead in each of its previous 10 games. 10* Cleveland |
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06-01-17 | Cavs +7 v. Warriors | Top | 91-113 | Loss | -105 | 85 h 26 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (9:05 ET): Much is being made of the fact that favorites have gone 11-1 ATS the last 12 years in the NBA Finals. This includes the Warriors winning and covering each of the last two years at the Cavs' expense. For the third year in a row (an NBA first!), these teams meet again to determine to who is the best the league has to offer. Though Golden State has Kevin Durant for the rubber match and has yet to lose this postseason (12-0 SU), I'm a bit surprised how little respect the defending league champs are getting, not just for Game 1, but the series as a whole. Clearly, regular season numbers (particularly at the defensive end) were not up to LY's standard. But that had a lot to do w/ an 0-9 SU record when LeBron James was out of the lineup. Contrary to conventional wisdom, James and company have "flipped a switch" here in the playoffs, turning in the third best defensive efficiency rating (GSW is 1st) while being #1 (by a wide margin) in offensive efficiency. Cleveland has lost only one time in the playoffs and that came in a game they led by as many as 21 points. Take the points in Game 1. People like to criticize the East, but Golden State had about as easy a path through the West as one could imagine. First round opponent Portland was hardly an equal. The same could be said for second round opponent Utah. In the Conference Finals, San Antonio led them by 25 pts in Game (here in Oakland!) before Kwahi Leonard got hurt, which changed the entire complexion of that series. There has been one game in each round where the Dubs have had to overcome a deficit of at least nine points. So while there have been some impressive performances along the way, it hasn't been flawless. Note the Cavs have enjoyed a double digit lead in 10 consecutive games going back to the close out game of the 1st round. That's pretty impressive considering they are the underdog here. A key weapon here for the Cavs (besides the obvious answer of LeBron) is the three-point shot. Golden State is thought of as "three-point shooting team," but in the playoffs Cleveland has been better. In fact, the Cavs are connecting at a historical pace. They are averaging a stunning 14.6 three pointers made per game, which if it holds, would be a playoff record. They're shooting at a 43.5% clip and that's including a 4 of 12 mark from Richard Jefferson & James Jones, who don't figure to shoot much in these finals. Something not even being considered here is the fact that Golden State HC Steve Kerr is likely to miss Game 1. That HAS to matter some, right? 8* Cleveland |
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05-23-17 | Celtics +15.5 v. Cavs | Top | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
8* Boston (8:35 ET): Going into Sunday night, it was considered a formality that both the Cavaliers and Warriors would sweep their way into a third straight NBA Finals matchup. Golden State has since held up its end of the bargain, but something funny happened in Cleveland. The Cavs lost Game 3, at home, despite holding a 21-point lead in the second half. It appeared as if they completely "shut it down" far too early, thereby enabling the Boston comeback. Keep in mind that the Celtics were w/o their best player, Isaiah Thomas, and that will continue to be the case the rest of the way. Despite the shocking win Sunday night, the oddsmakers have made no real adjustment for Game 4 and I believe that to be a mistake. Take the points here as the Cavs' level of dominance in the first two games continues to skew the number far too much in their favor. Obviously, I would be stunned at another outright win by the Celtics here. LeBron James is highly unlikely to go "M.I.A." again like he did in the second half of Game 3. But we finally did start to see some regression from the Cleveland side when it comes to three-point shooting. Currently, the team is on pace to set a new NBA record for # of three-pointers made per game. They're over 15.0 per game right now and eventually that number is going to drop. They also obviously are not going to continue shooting at a near 60% clip from two-point range, something they did in Games 1 and 2 in Boston. Let's also not forget about the Cavs' defensive issues from the regular season where they finished just 22nd in efficiency. Without Thomas, Boston got a number of key contributions in Game 3. Front and center was Marcus Smart, who made seven three-pointers and finished w/ 27 points. Avery Bradley hit the game-winner and finished w/ 20 points. Kelly Olynyk and Jonas Jerebko were both key contributors off the bench. Obviously, not all these players will be able to perform at the level we saw Sunday. But I also don't think all are going to regress either. As long as someone can step up for the Celtics, they should be more than capable of staying within this very generous number. 8* Boston |
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05-15-17 | Wizards +5 v. Celtics | Top | 105-115 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
10* Washington (8:05 ET): Admittedly, I'm bucking a lot of history here. Washington is 0-8 SU/ATS its last nine visits to Boston. The home team has won ALL 10 head to head meetings between these two teams this season. And home teams have historically dominated Game 7's in the NBA playoffs, winning 23 of the previous 30 straight up, though Utah did win in LA in Round 1 this year. As a whole, this series has been very even w/ the Wiz outscoring the Celtics by just a single point. Therefore, my natural inclination is to take the points. Throw in the fact that the Wiz raced out to double digit leads in each of the first two games here in Boston and one could make the arguement that they've been the better team. Actually, they've led by double digits in four of the six games so far. Take the points. Game 6 was Washington's turn to come from behind as they erased a five-point fourth quarter deficit and won on a John Wall three-pointer in the closing seconds. Now, that's by no means a large come back, so again, it somewhat plays into the fact that the Wizards have been the better team in this series. There is likely to be a ton of focus here on a "clock error," at the end of Game 6, which cost the Celtics some time to win the game. But that's all "water under the bridge now." Somewhat shocking is the fact that home teams were 0-10 straight up in these playoffs when facing elimination prior to the Washington win Friday night! So that's a trend that clearly now favors the Wizards. Being able to win a game while shooting 5 of 24 from three-point range was huge for the Wiz. You have to think they'll shoot better here, even on the road. Overall, Washington has not shot well in B2B games. They're just over 40% overall from the field and are an awful 12 of 53 from three-point range. Again, you have to think those numbers are going to improve here. That means trouble for Boston, who is actually worse defensively at home to begin with. Keys for Washington defensively are to force the Celtics into driving (just 7 of 31 L3 games, including an awful 1 of 13 from Isaiah Thomas) and focus on Al Horford, not Marcus Smart. Smart has been a borderline disaster in this series, shooting just 32 percent from the floor and below 50 percent from the free throw line. Yes, home court advantage is powerful in these Game 7's. But I simply do not believe the Celtics are any better than the Wizards, which makes the points look attractive. 10* Washington |
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05-12-17 | Celtics v. Wizards -5 | Top | 91-92 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
8* Washington (8:05 ET): The first quarter has typically belonged to the Wizards in this series, but that certainly was NOT the case in Game 5 at Boston as they were outscored 33-21 and never really recovered (lost 123-101). But all that did was square away the two teams' scoring in the series. The 22-pt win doubled the Celtics' margin of victory from Games 1 and 2 combined while the Wizards won Games 3 and 4 (here at home) by a total of 44 pts. The home team has now won all nine H2H meetings this season, so right there is a natural lean to Washington. Throw in the fact that they held a double digit lead in each of the first four games of the series and the fact they're still dead even with Boston in point differential despite being down a game, I'm laying the short number here. Save for Game 5, the pattern of Washington beating Boston by a larger margin than the other way around goes back to the regular season. In the Celtics' four trips to the Nation's Capital this season, they have lost by margins of 25, 15, 27 and 19! That's an average of 21.5 points per game! While the Wiz sport a losing record on the road, they are 35-11 SU at home and average 110.7 PPG. More importantly, they also allow about 5.5 PPG fewer at home compared to the road. Boston, who is only 8-15 SU as a 'dog this year, scores roughly four points per game less on the road. Since '05, NBA playoff teams off a double digit road loss and returning home cover at a 56% ATS rate. Again, it bears mentioning that Washington held a double digit lead in each of the first four games of this series. They'd outscored Boston by 22 points over those four games, so the series being "even" at that point was certainly misleading. I know the Celtics then dominated Game 5, but I see no way they repeat their 53% shooting (65% in 1st quarter!) or go 16 of 33 on three-point attempts again. Washington shot just 38.5% overall in Game 5 (series worst), including 7 of 29 from three-point range. This is a classic "zig zag" game. Look for this series to go to a Game 7. 8* Washington |
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05-10-17 | Wizards +4.5 v. Celtics | Top | 101-123 | Loss | -108 | 33 h 47 m | Show |
10* Washington (8:05 ET): The home team has yet to lose in this series, so after four games we're all squared away at two games apiece. That may give the impression that it's been an even battle so far between the Wizards and Celtics, but a deeper investigation reveals that is simply not the case. In fact, the top seed should feel very fortunate not to be eliminated already. Boston has not just trailed by double digits in every game in this series, but has allowed Washington to go on individual runs of 16-0, 22-0 and 26-0 at various points. I believe that the Wiz are the better team here and if you look at the individual game lines, it would appear the oddsmakers agree w/ that assertion. Yes, they're 0-7 SU/ATS their last seven visits to Boston, but they scored 80 first quarter points in Games 1 and 2 and led at the half both times. That 0-7 streak seems due to end. If not now, when? After blowing those double digit leads (17 in Gm 1, 13 in Gm 2) in Boston, Washington easily could have folded their tent. But instead they blew the Celtics out in both home games. Game 3, like Games 1 and 2, saw them get off to a blistering start. This time, however, they were able to maintain the advantage and won 116-89. Game 4 marked the first time in the series that the Wizards did NOT score at least 38 pts in the 1Q and the Celtics actually led early in the second half. But, thanks to an insane 26-0 run, the Wizards put together another huge quarter (42 in 3Q) and won 121-102. Washington has now scored at least 111 pts in every game in ths series. Remember that the loss in Game 2 came in overtime. I can't overstate enough how the Wiz have mostly outplayed the Celtics over the course of the first four games. If not for Isaiah Thomas, Boston might very well be sitting at home right now. Let's also not forget that Boston dropped Games 1 and 2 at home in their 1st rd series against a pretty pedestrian Bulls team. That series swung on a key injury to Chicago PG Rajon Rondo. So that's two series where you can say the Celtics have had the "luck of the Irish." In each of the first three games, Washington scored at least 63 pts by halftime. They won Game 4 w/out Kelly Oubre, Jr and now get him back from a one-game suspension. What does the extra day off between games mean? Well, historically speaking, good things for the Wizards. They are 9-5 ATS, 10-4 SU when playing w/ exactly two days' rest. Meanwhile, Boston is just 5-11 ATS, 6-10 SU. Yes, the home team has won all eight times these teams have met this year. But the games here in Boston have been much closer. Take the points. 10* Washington |
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05-07-17 | Spurs v. Rockets -5.5 | Top | 104-125 | Win | 100 | 35 h 55 m | Show |
10* Houston (9:05 ET): The Rockets opened this series w/ an impressive 126-99 win and cover as six-point chalk. Despite then getting blown out themselves in Game 2, their series' prospects were nevertheless looking pretty good as they were returning home and the Spurs are now w/o Tony Parker for the rest of the season. But, things have a funny way of working out sometimes as it was San Antonio taking care of business in Game 3 w/ a surprise 102-93 win and cover. Holding Houston below 100 pts in consecutive contests is no small achievement, but then again San Antonio was #1 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. Still, I anticipate the Rockets bouncing back offensively tonight and squaring this series up at two games apiece. Lay the points. Game 3 actually marked the lowest scoring game for the Rockets ALL YEAR! That was after Game 2 marked their second lowest scoring game of the season. This is a team that had been held below 100 pts in only FIVE games during the regular season. Remember, they shot 22 of 50 from three-point range in Game 1 en route to scoring an impressive 126 points. So we know they're capable of exceeding their average PPG against San Antonio. Certainly, we should expect some sort of bounce back tonight. They average 116.3 PPG at home and James Harden did get back on track in Game 3 w/ 43 points. The problem was the bench totaling only 10 pts and nine of those came from one player, Eric Gordon. A team's supporting cast and reserves tend to play much better at home and in this department, I expect a huge upgrade for Houston in Game 4. The loss of Parker has yet to be felt by the Spurs, but it should soon take hold. LaMarcus Aldridge scored 26 pts in Game 3, but I would not expect a repeat of that tonight. He's averaged less than 15 PPG so far in the postseason and had just 19 pts total in the first two games. Again, this is unprecented territory w/ Houston coming off consecutive games where they were held under 100 pts. That did not happen a single time in the regular season! Following a SU Loss this season, the Rockets are 23-6 SU and 18-10-1 ATS, winning by an average of 9.3 points per game. This is a "must-win" game for them as they can't afford to go down 3-1 in the series w/ just one more game (at most) at home. 10* Houston |
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05-05-17 | Cavs v. Raptors +3.5 | Top | 115-94 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:05 ET): It goes w/o saying that the Raptors have to be thrilled to be out of Cleveland. Going back to last year's Eastern Conference Finals, they are 0-5 SU/ATS in the playoffs there, losing by an average of nearly THIRTY points per game! Game 1 of this series was bad (lost 116-105), but Game 2 was even worse (lost 125-103) and Toronto basically trailed the entire time in both games. DeMar DeRozan was downright awful Wednesday night as he was just 2 for 11 from the field and scored only five points. Plus, he's now resorting to (facetiously) offering $100 to anyone who knows how to stop LeBron James! Even worse is that Kyle Lowry now has a sprained ankle. The good news is that DeRozan can't be any worse than he was in Game 2 and I have to believe Lowry is going to try and at least give it a "go" here. I view teams like stocks and tonight clearly marks an opportunity to "buy low" on the Raptors. Take the points. Let us not forget what happened in LY's Eastern Conference Finals. As they did in this series, the Raptors got blown out in Games 1 and 2 in Cleveland. But then they came back to take the next two here at home. There's some real value here considering Cleveland was only a seven-point home favorite for Game 2. Plus, I anticipate the public continuing to bet this number up, so I'd probably wait as long as possible to get the best available number. Toronto is 30-14 SU at home this year, outscoring visitors by 7.6 points per game. Their scoring average jumps to 110.3 PPG (only 101.7 PPG on the road). Cleveland actually finished w/ a losing road record in the regular season (20-21 SU) and has been outscored away from home over the course of the year. They trailed Indiana by as many as 25 in Game 3 of the 1st round before a miraculous comeback. The Cavs have been on fire in the first two games, particularly from three point range. They are now averaging over 14 makes per game from behind the arc and shooting 42.3% there for the entire playoffs. That's a clip that probably cannot be sustained. Let's not let the offensive outbursts from the first two games mask the fact that the defending World Champs are questionable at best on the defensive end where they ranked 22nd in efficiency (lowest among all playoff teams!) during the regular season. Toronto, who was just 5 of 17 from three-point range in Game 2, should be the ones "getting it going" from distance tonight. The Raptors, not Cleveland or Boston, were the team that had the best net efficiency rating and point differential in the Eastern Conference this year. 8* Toronto |
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05-04-17 | Celtics v. Wizards -5 | Top | 89-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
8* Washington (8:05 ET): There's two ways to look at the Wizards' performance in Boston in Games 1 and 2. The pessimist would say that they blew two golden opportunties to "steal" a game on the road and take away the Celtics' home court advantage in the series. The pessimist certainly has a point. When you score a combined 80 pts in the first quarter and still end up 0-2 ATS, well, that's pretty inexcusable. But the optimist would point to the fact that the Wiz could easily be up 2-0 in the series, having held double digit leads in both games. We also know they are a significantly better team at home (33-11 SU here). Sure, the line might "turn some off" (Washington now favored by more here than Boston was in either Games 1 or 2!), but not I. I'll lay the points w/ the Wizards in a "must-win" game. In the regular season, Boston was 2-15 ATS when on a win streak of at least three games. But they now come into tonight on a six-game SU and ATS win streak. An emotional Isaiah Thomas, still dealing w/ the tragic death of his sister, has been borderline unstoppable so far. Especially in Game 2 where he went for 53 points. But nor he or his team can keep up the production we saw in the first two games of this series. In averaging 126 points per game, the Celtics have shot 51.1% against the Wizards. But history now says it is Washington's turn to break out offensively. Their three-point shooting percentage in particular goes way up when at home (to 39.8%). They were only 10 of 34 in Game 2 w/ Bradley Beal being the biggest offender at 1 of 9. Of course, it's not as if Washington has had much problem scoring against the Celtics. They've gotten off to ridiculous starts both games (again, 80 pts in the 1Q!) and averaged 115 PPG. As the underdog, you would have figured they would have covered at least once, if not taken a game outright. Game 2, which ended up going into overtime, saw Boston take its first lead halfway through the fourth quarter! The Wizards led by as many as 13 late in the third quarter. That was after also holding a DD lead in Game 1. Remember that the Celtics also caught a massive break in Rd 1 in that Bulls' starting PG Rajon Rondo got hurt, which totally changed the complexion of that series. This is a weak top seed that lost two home games to an 8-seed and has trailed by double digits in two others. Washington won both regular season meetings at home, by 15 and 25 points. 8* Washington |
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05-03-17 | Rockets v. Spurs -5 | Top | 96-121 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (9:35 ET): The Cavs and Warriors are the only teams yet to lose a game this postseason, but don't sleep on the Rockets, who have only dropped one and just ran the Spurs out of the gym Monday night. In a real shocker, Houston came into San Antonio and took Game 1 w/ incredible ease, rolling up 126 points on what was the #1 rated team in defensive efficiency during the regular season. The Rockets are now 12-4 ATS as underdogs this season, a role which they find themselves in yet again for Game 2. However, not to expect a bounce back from the Spurs would be foolish. When off a SU loss this year, the team has outscored its opponents by an impressive margin of 11.6 points per game. With the series set to move to Houston for the next two games, this is basically a "must win" for San Antonio and I see them getting the job done. As mentioned already, the Spurs were #1 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. They allow only 97.5 PPG at home. So the 126 they allowed to Houston was definitely a surprise to most. Given that no team was better at defending the three-point line this year, one would think the Spurs were uniquely suited to stop the Rockets, a team that very much "lives and dies" behind the arc. But instead, Game 1 saw Houston go 22 of 50 from three-point range, a rather stunning performance. I'm willing to bet on that NOT happening again. Furthermore, we should see improvement from San Antonio's offense as well, which was held under 100 pts (9 of 29 from 3-pt range) by a subpar defensive team. Perhaps the biggest surprise of all from Game 1 was the incredible amount of support James Harden received from his supporting cast. The four other starters combined for 64 points on 21 of 43 shooting, including 11 of 25 from three-point range. Trevor Ariza scored 23 and Clint Capela added 20. I just can't see a repeat of that taking place here. Meanwhile, the Spurs' LaMarcus Aldridge was a disaster w/ a -36 plus-minus, the worst ever turned in by a Greg Popovich coached player in the postseason. He'll be better tonight. It's way too early to write off the Spurs. They shot just 36.9% from the floor in Game 1, a percentage which should easily be topped here tonight. Expect much better play - on both ends of the court - for Game 2. 8* San Antonio |
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05-03-17 | Raptors +7.5 v. Cavs | Top | 103-125 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:05 ET): The Cavs and Warriors are the only teams yet to lose this postseason, so let the inevitable discussion about a potential NBA Finals "rubber match" commence. Never before in league history have the same two teams met three consecutive years in the Finals, by the way. While Cleveland swept Indiana in the 1st round, it was hardly an impressive four-game stretch as they won by an average of only four points per game while giving up an average of 108.7 points per game. Defense was a real issue for the defending World Champs down the stretch and they finished 22nd in the league in efficiency, which actually ranks LAST among all playoff teams. However, they were seemingly able to "turn it on" in Game 1 of this series, beating Toronto 116-105 as 6.5-pt chalk. They never trailed. The Raptors did take the Cavaliers to six games in LY's Eastern Conference Finals, but their four losses were by an average of 28.5 PPG and they dropped all three games here in Cleveland. So what must the underdog do to reverse the course of history here? Well, shooting better would be a good start. They finished Game 1 at just 43.8% from the field, which won't get it done against the Cavs. Considering Indiana, an inferior offensive team, was able to shoot 46.6% in Rd 1, I expect better from Toronto here. Digging themselves an early hole doomed them Monday. It should be pointed out that the Cavs' penchant for blowing large leads again reared its ugly head though as the Raptors were able to cut the deficit to seven in the third quarter. It should be noted Toronto is 7-3 STRAIGHT UP following a double digit loss this year. Until further notice, I'll maintain that Cleveland's defense (or lack there of) remains a problem. Remember that they actually trailed by 25 in Game 3 of the opening round and also were fortunate that the Pacers missed a wide-open shot that would have won Game 1. With three or more days rest, the Cavs are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS this year. But in all other games, they're just 34-45-4 ATS. The Raptors were 14-8 ATS as a road dog this year prior to the Game 1 loss. Really, I can't see them playing any worse than they did Monday and note they were essentially dead even w/ the Cavs over the final three quarters. 8* Toronto |
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05-01-17 | Raptors +7 v. Cavs | Top | 105-116 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
10* Toronto (7:05 ET): Believe it or not, but of these two teams, it was the Raptors that finished the regular season w/ the better point differential and net efficiency rating. Yes, this is "the playoffs," but Cleveland was hardly impressive in Round 1, even in sweeping the far less talented Pacers. They won the four games by an average of only four points per game w/ largest MOV in any game being just six. They were fortunate in that Indiana missed potential GW shots in Games 1 and 4, plus blew a 25-point halftime lead in Game 3. Unlike Indiana (Paul George), Toronto has more than just one reliable option and the Cavs defense remains worrisome. The road team won three of the four regular season matchups and I'll gladly take the points here. Among playoff teams, Cleveland posted the worst defensive efficiency rating in the regular season. They rank 22nd overall in that department, a far cry from the 10th place ranking they had in LY's Title run. Against Indiana, the defending World Champs conceded an average of 108.7 points per game on 46.6% shooting. They gave up no fewer than 102 pts every game and could never seemingly put the Pacers away in any game. That's worrisome as they prepare to face a far better offensive opponent. I'm also a tad bit concerned over the heavy usage rate of LeBron James. Right now, he's averaging a playoff-high 43.8 minutes per game. Three of the four regular season matchups w/ the Raptors were decided by four points or less, the other was a Raptors win where the Cavs rested starters (reg season finale). Toronto wound up needing six games to eliminate a pesky Milwaukee team in Round 1, but they won that series despite averaging only 93.8 points per game. That means, unlike Cleveland, they played some defense. In fact, they were #2 in defensive efficiency in Round 1, trailing only Golden State. Meanwhile, the Cavs were actually WORSE defensively in the series vs. Indiana than they were in the regular season. If it's not become patently obvious to you yet, let me be clear that I expect the Raptors to break out offensively in this game and this series. Will it be enough to win? Not sure, but they are a better team now compared to the one that took the Cavs to six games in LY's Eastern Conference Finals. 10* Toronto |
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04-30-17 | Wizards +4.5 v. Celtics | Top | 111-123 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
8* Washington (1:05 ET): Both of these teams won their respective first round series in six games. The Wizards ousted the Hawks while the Celtics took care of the Bulls. However, as recently as 10 days ago, one might find it hard to believe that both teams would finish off their opponents in the same time. Washington jumped out to a 2-0 series lead on the Hawks, before dropping both games in Atlanta. But, on the road in Game 6, they wound up playing their "best" game of the series, finishing things off w/ a 115-99 win and cover. While they did led the Hawks get back into the game, the Wiz led by as many as 22 - again, on the road. Meanwhile, it's easy to forget, but Boston once trailed the 8th seeded Bulls two games to none before storming back to win and cover four straight. That series clearly turned on the (Rajon) Rondo injury. I'm not sure Washington isn't the better team here, so I'll gladly grab the points. These teams split the regular season series with the home team winning all four meetings. Washington has actually lost and failed to cover five in a row here in Boston. But both regular season matchups here were close (decided by single digits), something that was NOT the case in D.C. Something to consider is that prior to the Game 6 closeout of Chicago, Boston was just 2-15 ATS this season when on a win streak of three or more games. Again, they were quite lucky that Rondo got hurt as a middling Bulls team was a lot worse off w/o him. The Celtics' own star player, Isaiah Thomas, has some question marks coming into this series as well. He just attended the funeral for his sister, who was tragically killed in an auto accident, yesterday. The quick turnaround between series certainly does him no favors. I believe the best player in this series has "Wizards" on the front of his jersey. That would be John Wall, who went for 42 pts in the closeout game of Atlanta. Now Wall's 17.8 PPG average vs. Boston in the reg season was his lowest vs. any Eastern Conference opponent this year. But, Bradley Beal more than helped pick up the slack by averaging 28.3 PPG in the three matchups he played. Offensively, the Wizards will present a far greater challenge to the Celtics than the inept Bulls (30th in eff FG%) did. For the sake of comparison, the Wiz are sixth in eff FG%. Note they are also 8-3 ATS off a SU win as a dog this season. 8* Washington |
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04-27-17 | Raptors v. Bucks -1.5 | Top | 92-89 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 49 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (7:05 ET): For the 1st time, the Bucks trail in the series and now they face a "must-win" to stay alive in Game 6. Thankfully, they get the contest at home. The reason that they are in this position is that they lost in Toronto, 118-93 on Monday. It was their second straight double digit loss to the Raptors and I continue to be astounded at how few points Milwaukee is scoring. But, as alluded to earlier, I like the home team in this spot as Toronto is just 1-6 ATS all-time when leading in a playoff series, including 0-4 the L3 years. Not only that, but the Raptors were red hot from the field in Game #5 (57.7% overall) and probably will be unable to match that. The Bucks need more than just 63 total points outside of Giannia Antetoukounmpo, which is what they got in the last game. Fortunately, at home, "The Greek Freak" should have more support. Lay the very short number. Milwaukee won both Games 1 and 3 of this series. Game 3, which was here at home, saw them completely dominate en route to an easy 104-77 win and cover as two-point chalk. While they didn't shoot the ball well at all in Game 4, Game 5 they did as they finished 50% from the floor. They were even 10 of 22 from three-point range. Missing 11 free throws certainly hurt, but the bottom line is that Toronto simply found a way to get even hotter. Fortunately, the Bucks are 6-2 straight up this year following a game where they allowed 115+ points. Earlier, I briefly touched upon Toronto's past playoff failures at the betting window. Well, they've also NEVER won three consecutive playoff games in their franchise history. So they have that working against them tonight. One player to monitor here is Bucks' guard Khris Middleton. He obviously wasn't feeling well in the last game and it showed w/ him shooting just 3 of 8 and going for only eight points. He sat out Wednesday's practice, but will set to go for the game. He's averaged 13.6 points, 4.8 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game for the series. Coming off a blowout loss, I feel that the Bucks are being written off a bit too much considering that this has been a relatively even series (Raptors have only outscored Bucks by a single point). 10* Milwaukee |
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04-25-17 | Jazz v. Clippers -3 | Top | 96-92 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): Injuries have taken their toll in this series. While tied at two games apiece, one could argue that the Jazz have been the team to adjust better. Granted, it helped that Rudy Gobert made a surprising return for Game 4, which resulted in a 105-98 win. Meanwhile, the Clippers are still figuring out how to deal w/ the loss of Blake Griffin. But considering the difference in the line here compared to the last time the Clips hosted a game (Gm 2), it seems to me as if the oddsmakers may be overvaluing the loss of Griffin. Is he really worth approximately six points to the spread? That seems like a lot to me when a team still has Chris Paul. Utah, as noted by me previously, has been lousy as an underdog this year (6-19 straight up). Conversely, the Clips are 28-8 SU when priced as a home favorite. I'll lay the short number for Game 5. It was an interesting split of the two games in Utah as both saw come from behind efforts. Utah had what appeared to be a commanding double digit lead early in Game 3 before wilting late. Then, the Clippers "returned the favor" in Game 4, blowing an 87-80 fourth quarter advantage. The Jazz shot well in both games (53% overall!), so they are the ones that have to feel they may have let one "slip away." I still think not having the home court edge for the series is a major detriment to them. In the two games here in LA, they averaged only 94 points on roughly 47% shooting. That was despite going 18 of 44 from three-point range, a relatively good percentage. It's a good thing that Gobert came back for Game 4 as All-Star Gordon Hayward missed the entire 2H due to being sick. He's listed as probable for tonight, but I question how effective he'll be. Gobert probably isn't going 6 for 6 from the field again either, nor do I see Joe Johnson continuing his surprising strong play either. The Clippers clearly need Paul to step up as he did in Game 3. Though the team only turned it over nine times in Game 4, they didn't shoot the ball nearly as well as Utah did (54% to 44%) and that ultinately was the difference. Defensively, the Clips are a much better team at home, allowing just 44% shooting for the year and about 100 PPG. Something else to keep in mind is that they have not lost B2B games since St. Patrick's Day. That's over a month. For the year, they are outscoring opponents by an impressive 11.1 points per game as a home favorite. They've played w/o Griffin before and I think will get the job done here. 10* LA Clippers |
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04-24-17 | Wizards +2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 101-111 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
10* Washington (8:05 ET): Just a few days ago, the Wizards' playoff prospects were looking quite rosy. Not only did they hold a 2-0 series lead over the Hawks, but in the other half of their bracket, the 8-seeded Bulls had the same edge over the top-seeded Celtics. What a difference a couple of days can make! Not only have the Celtics rallied to tie up their series (2-2), but the Wiz were blown out in Game 3 by Atlanta, 116-98. It was a game the Hawks "had to have" and they played like it, leading the entire way. But that one result has created somewhat of an ideal scenario for Game 4 where I believe Washington is a solid value. Atlanta is still a mediocre group in my eyes and the likelihood of them playing that well in B2B games is quite minimal. Take the points. Don't blame the great John Wall for the Wizards' Game 3 loss. He scored 29 points, just missing out on a third straight 30+ pt effort. The issue was the other four members of the starting five combined for only 30 points Saturday! I'm willing to write that performance off as a "one-hit wonder" though as Washington fell behind huge early and never recovered. It was a 38-20 game after the first quarter and that 18-pt difference wound up being the final margin. For the Hawks, Paul Milsap and Dennis Schroeder both turned in strong efforts w/ 29 and 27 pts respectively. I wouldn't necessarily be anticipating a repeat of that performance tonight. Meanwhile, Wall's backcourt mate Bradley Beal is in line for a bounce back as he scored only 12 points on 6 of 20 shooting (0 for 6 from three-point range) in Game 3. That was after averaging 26.5 points in the first two games. Emotions are running high in this series w/ Markieff Morris and Milsap trading barbs via the media. Note that the impressive and somewhat physical defensive effort we saw from the Hawks in Game 3 is somewhat rare. They actually allow 105.6 PPG at home this year. I often forget Dwight Howard is even on this roster (you too?). After a double digit win, Atlanta is only 6-11 ATS this season. They're also just 4-8 ATS after topping 115 points. I look for improved shooting from Washington tonight and don't discount the importance of them having the best player in the series (Wall) on their roster. 10* Washington |
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04-23-17 | Celtics v. Bulls +3 | Top | 104-95 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
10* Chicago (6:35 ET): After zigging with my Game of the Week on the Celtics in Game 3, I'll be "zagging" so-to-speak here on the Bulls for Game 4. The home team has yet to win a game in this best of seven affair, which 8th seeded Chicago now leads two games to one. The big story going into Game 3 had been the top seeded Celtics being down 0-2, but quickly shifted once it was annouced that the Bulls' Rajon Rondo would be out for the remainder of the series w/ a broken thumb. The early returns w/o Rondo were not good as the Bulls lost Game 3, 104-87, while committing 17 turnovers and having only 14 assists. But, I believe they'll bounce back tonight, as Rondo's absence really doesn't affect the Bulls' one key edge in this series and that's rebounding. Take the points. Chicago finished the year 4th in rebound rate. Boston was 4th worst (27th). The Bulls, not surprisingly, currently own a significant edge on the boards through the first three games of this series. In playing Boston Game 3, I somewhat disregarded this edge for the Bulls and instead chose to focus on their poor shooting numbers. Sure enough, Jimmy Butler had an "off-night" as he was 7 of 21 from the field and didn't even attempt a single free throw (just 4th time all season). Now though, I expect Butler specifically and the rest of his teammates to bounce back. As we all know, rebounding is the way to counteract poor shooting. I can't envision Chicago shooting below 40% from the field again at home, which included 6 of 21 from three-point range. At the same time, expect Boston to regress from its 47.7% shooting percentage from Game 3. I also don't expect them to make 17 three-pointers again. Boston came into the playoffs as a somewhat shaky #1 seed. After the first two games, they appeared to be even shakier. As I anticipated, they then blew the Bulls out in Game 3, but one result won't change everything, nor will Rondo's absence. Concerning is that the Celtics only got to the FT line SEVEN times in Game 3. I should also mentione that they are just 5-11 ATS (only 9-8 SU) the game following a double digit win. As an underdog, the Bulls are 28-18 ATS this season, including 10-5 at home. They did cut the Boston lead to one (after trailing by as many as 20!) in Game 3. The Bulls are also still the better defensive team here. 10* Chicago |
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04-22-17 | Spurs -3.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 108-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
10* San Antonio (8:05 ET): The Spurs actually lost a game to Memphis, getting blown out in Game 3, 105-94 as 3.5-pt favorites. That final score is a little misleading in the sense that the Grizzlies led by as many as 22 in the second half (81-63 after third quarter). That snapped a 10-game playoff losing streak to San Antonio and was also HC David Fizdale's first ever postseason win. But while the price range has remained unchanged for Game 4, I believe that the result will. The Spurs have been an excellent bounce back team all season long, going 16-5 SU off a SU loss w/ the average margin of victory coming by 11.8 points per game. Fizdale's epic post-game rant (after Game 2) did its job, but it will be difficult to match that emotion for a second straight game. Remember that the Grizz are still w/o ace defender Tony Allen. Lay the points. What was the difference between Games 1 & 2 vs. 3 (besides the venue)? Well, Memphis simply shot the ball a lot better. They were above 50% from the field, a far cry from the pair of sub-40% performances in San Antonio. While they may not shoot as poorly tonight as they did in the first two games, I do expect a sharp decline from Game 3. Remember that the Spurs are #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. Memphis is one of the lowest scoring teams in the entire league and actually doesn't even average 100 PPG for the year. They scored only 82 in each of the first two games. Essentially, it was one quarter (the 3rd) that broke Game 3 open for the Grizzlies as they outscored the Spurs by 14. That quarter saw them make 10 of their first 14 shots while San Antonio missed 11 of its first 17. That stretch basically decided the game. At the other end of the floor, look for the Spurs' Kawhi Leonard to regain his lost touch. After matching his career playoff high w/ 32 pts in Game 1 and then setting a new high w/ 37 in Game 2, he went for only 18 pts in Game 3. Without Allen to defend him, it's simply not likely that Leonard will have too many more "off nights" in this series. Tony Parker averaged 15 PPG in San Antonio, but was scoreless on four shots in Game 3. LaMarcus Aldridge was the only other starter besides Leonard to score in double figures as the entire five was pulled in the fourth quarter. Expect across the board improvement from each of the individual starters here. Meanwhile, Memphis has won only two of nine games in April and regression is likely. I expect Greg Popovich to stress the importance of finishing this series in five games to his players. 10* San Antonio |
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04-22-17 | Raptors +2.5 v. Bucks | Top | 87-76 | Win | 100 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
10* Toronto (3:05 ET): Needless to say, the Raptors got humiliated in Game 3. They lost 104-77 (were 2-pt underdogs) and the game was never really close as they trailed by 20 after the first quarter and 32 after three. That loss dropped them to a terrible 7-20 ATS in all playoff games the L3 years, including 2-12 ATS in first rounders. DeMar DeRozan was as big a culprit as any Thursday night, going 0 for 8 from the field. That was the worst shooting performance in the playoffs by a player who averaged at least 25 points per game in the regular season, ever. Toronto now trails the lower seeded Bucks 2-1, but as was the case in Game 2, I expect them to bounce back from a SU loss. We saw w/ a play earlier this week (OKC over Houston Gm 2) that teams off a blowout loss are often vastly undervalued the next game. That's the case here. You'll perhaps recall that PG Kyle Lowry took the brunt of the blame for the Raptors' Game 1 loss at home. He shot 2 for 11 overall, including 0 for 6 from three-point range. In my Game 3 analysis, I wrote that a big game from both DeRozan and Lowry was imperative considering the Raptors are 8-2 SU when both scored 20+ in the same game. This Toronto team, not Cleveland or even Boston, finished the regular season w/ the best net efficiency rating and point differential in the Eastern Conference. That was despite being w/o Lowry for most of the second half. Being held to 83 pts and 77 pts by Milwaukee in this series has been relatively stunning. This is a team that averages 106.2 PPG for the year. Fortunately, DeRozan should improve. So if Lowry can keep his act together, the Raptors may again get a good game from both members of its starting backcourt. In Game 2, they combined for 45 points on 50% shooting. Also notable is that the Bucks are just 7-18 ATS the L3 seasons after holding a team to 85 points or less. This was priced as only a 39-win team in the regular season. Remember; Milwaukee is a young team that is not accustomed to playing with any kind of series lead. Ranking only 19th in defensive efficiency is worrisome as well (Toronto is 8th) and the Bucks are also inferior at the offensive end as well (13th vs. 6th). Had the Raptors not shot only 20% in the second half of Game 1, they very well would have won both home games. 10* Toronto |
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04-21-17 | Celtics +1.5 v. Bulls | Top | 104-87 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
10* Boston (7:05 ET): Coming into the playoffs, many questioned the validity of the Celtics as the East's #1 seed. Certainly, they were not the favorite (Cleveland is). Nor did they finish the regular season with the best point differential or net efficiency rating (Toronto did). But I don't think anybody expected them to drop both games at home to the mediocre Bulls. The only way I can explain what has transpired so far in this series is that the 8-seed has a decided edge in rebounding and has exploited it. In the regular season, Chicago ranked 4th in rebound rate while Boston was 27th. In the two games so far, the Bulls are +22 on the boards, although Game 2 was close to even. Obviously, the passing of Isaiah Thomas' sister has had an effect on the Celtics' best player, but he did have 33 pts in Game 1 and the team still lost. With the series now moving to the Windy City, I think people are going to be quick to write off the Celtics, but that's a mistake. Take the points. With Chicago winning both games in Boston, a shift from the oddsmakers was predictable, but I'm not yet convinced the Bulls should be favored. As I said earlier, this was a decidedly mediocre team in the regular season. They barely outscored their opponents over the course of the 82 games. They were only priced as a 36-win team, so they slightly overachieved, and when favored they actually didn't perform all that well. Not only did they go 15-21 ATS, but they were just 19-17 straight up. They were also 28th in true shooting and 30th (last) in effective field goal percentage, so this is a bad offensive team. But they shot 51.1% from the floor in Game 2. I'm as shocked as any that they've averaged 108.5 points the first two games. The likes of Paul Zipser and Bobby Portis have made unlikely contributions thus far. Changes are likely in the Celtics lineup for Game 3, but HC Brad Stevens in being coy. One thing we do know is that Boston is 8-3 SU/ATS this season following a double digit loss. This team posted a winning road record in the regular season and it's their offense that I expect to come alive tonight in the United Center. Note Chicago only shoots 43.8% from the floor at home. Boston averages a healthy 106.5 PPG on the road and I expect FT shooting to improve from the first two games. This is a team that shoots over 80% from the charity stripe. A "must win" for the Celtics and I have them getting the job done. 10* Boston |
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04-20-17 | Raptors +1.5 v. Bucks | Top | 77-104 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
8* Toronto (8:05 ET): I'm going w/ the Raptors, on the road, for Game 3. They evened this series up at 1-1 w/ a 106-100 win in Game 2 Tuesday. However, they failed to cover (closed as 8-pt favorites), dropping them to 2-11 ATS in first round playoff games the L3 years. But, they did lead by double digits early in the fourth quarter before letting the Bucks back in the game. Kyle Lowry was a lot better than he was in Game 1, shooting 50% overall, and the team went from making just five three-pointers in Game 1 to 14 in Game 2. Even after factoring in the change in home court, it certainly seems to appear as if there's some value here on Toronto, who is now an underdog for just the second time in seven meetings this year vs. Milwaukee. Take the points. After winning and covering this season's first three head to head meetings w/ the Bucks, Toronto has failed to cover three in a row. But as I just stated, only once previous to tonight have they been an underdog to Milwaukee. While they did lose that game, 101-94 (despite outshooting the Bucks), I still feel the oddsmakers have overadjusted here. Toronto went 12-7 ATS in the regular season as a road dog and overall they've been favored in 15 of their last 18 games. The key tonight is not just Lowry, but DeMar DeRozan as well. Game 2 marked the 10th time that both members of the Raptors' starting backcourt scored 20+ points. The team has gone 8-2 SU in those games. Milwaukee was not great as a home favorite during the regular season, going only 18-11 SU and 12-17 ATS. Obviously, the pointspread is likely irrelevant here as the SU winner is almost assured of covering the spread. But still, that SU record isn't exactly great either. Overall, the Bucks were favored just 39 times during the regular season, so you can actually say they overachieved. Down the stretch, they went 17-10 SU, but were actually outscored on a per possession/game basis. Ranking only 19th in defensive efficiency is worrisome as well (Toronto is 8th) and the Bucks are also inferior at the offensive end as well (13th vs. 6th). The Raptors are simply the better team here and were it not for a dreadful second-half shooting performance in Game 1 (20%!), then they'd likely already be up 2-0. 8* Toronto |
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04-19-17 | Thunder +8 v. Rockets | Top | 111-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): I came into this series thinking that OKC didn't have much of a chance seeing that I've labeled them as "overrated" much of this year. But even I was taken aback at how thoroughly they were dominated by the Rockets in a 118-87 Game 1 loss. Thus, I anticipate it will an "abandon ship" mentality here from the majority of bettors. But I'll choose to "buy low" as I expect a bounce back tonight in Game 2. Remember that last year saw the Thunder get crushed in a Game 1 matchup vs. the Spurs (124-92) and they came back to not only win Game 2, but the entire series. There's no Kevin Durant obviously for this go-around and I'm not convinced OKC can come back to win this series. But they'll at least cover tonight. Take the points. This series very much centers around the individual battle between Houston's James Harden and OKC's Russell Westbrook, who are thought to be the two leading MVP candidates. In the four regular season head to head matchups, Westbrook outscored Harden by about 16 PPG. But, scoring was 37-22 in favor of Harden in Game 1. Obviously, if Westbrook only scores 22 again, the Thunder have little chance. But I anticipate his scoring will go up tonight. He probably can't shoot any worse than he did Sunday night when he went 6 of 23 from the field, including 3 of 11 from three-point range. Patrick Beverley gave Westbrook trouble, but can he do it again? I should point out that the series opener was a five-point game going into halftime. Things really fell apart for OKC in the fourth quarter, leading to a somewhat misleading final score. On the defensive end, the Thunder did a good job limiting the Rockets on three-pointers. Houston was just 10 of 33 from behind the arc in Game 1, so the fact they still won by 31 is somewhat shocking. The key was 62 points in the paint, half of them coming on second-chance opportunities. Here is where the big difference should come for Game 2. OKC was actually the top rebounding team in the league during the regular season, so I don't anticipate Houston enjoying that same kind of edge inside again. Overall, the Thunder rate as the better defensive team here (10th in efficiency vs. 17th). Beverley scoring 21 pts again shouldn't happen as defending Westbrook is likely to wear on him. 10* Oklahoma City |
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04-18-17 | Bulls v. Celtics -7 | Top | 111-97 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
8* Boston (8:05 ET): Every home team playing on Tuesday lost Game 1 outright. The Celtics are the top seed in the Eastern Conference but a 106-102 loss to the pedestrian Bulls will do nothing to dispel the notion that they are somewhat fortunate to own that distinction. Of course, a major storyline heading into this series is the death of Isaiah Thomas' sister. Thomas, his team's best player, performed admirably in Game 1 (33 points on 10 of 18 shooting) but clearly had to be affected by the obviously horrible situation. For the first 44 minutes of the game, neither side had more than a two possession lead. So it's not as if Boston played all that poorly. They were outrebounded (53-36) and their bench outscored (35-22). But I don't expect those kind of discrepancies here plus Chicago's Jimmy Butler isn't likely to score 23 pts in the second half again. Lay the points. The Bulls were thought to have the edge in rebounding coming into this series as they ranked 4th in rebound rate during the regular season while the Celtics were 27th. But cleaning up the defensive glass is imperative here for Boston considering how poorly Chicago tends to shoot the ball. In the regular season, the Bulls ranked dead last in the league in effective field goal percentage and were 28th in true shooting percentage. It's not like they shot the ball that well in Game 1. They were just 42.9% overall including 8 of 25 from three-point range. Going 20 of 23 at the line was key as were all 35 pts from the reserves. The performance of Bobby Portis was particularly preposterous as he had 19 points, nine rebounds and two blocked shots. Portis averaged only 6.8 points and 4.5 rebounds in the regular season. So besides rebound better and hope the Bulls bench regresses, what else can the Celtics hope for here? Well, they should shoot better as a whole. They averaged 109.4 PPG at home during the regular season on 45.5% shooting. They were slightly below both numbers in Game 1. Also, I should point out that Chicago is just 17-25 SU on the road. They had gone 0-2 SU/ATS in their two reg season visits to Boston, including a 20-point loss last month. As much as I feel the Celtics are a weak #1 seed (I have them rated third in the conference behind Toronto and Cleveland), it's not like the Bulls are a great team. The home team should bounce back in this one as teams seeded 1-3 in the first round of the playoffs are 50-6 SU, 37-17-2 ATS if they lost Game 1 outright. 8* Boston |
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04-18-17 | Bucks v. Raptors -7.5 | Top | 100-106 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:05 ET): So, as alluded to in the play on the Over for this game, I'm going to be laying the points w/ the Raptors here. Incredibly, Game 1 marked the EIGHTH conseuctive playoff series that Toronto dropped Game 1. Twice last year, they were able to rally back after doing so, ousting Indiana and Miami. I feel it will be a similar "song and verse" in this series. Much of my confidence comes from the likelihood that Toronto's offense, Kyle Lowry in particular, will perform much better tonight than Saturday. For the record, after losing Game 1 of their first round series vs. Indiana LY, the Raptors came back to not only win, but also cover the spread in Game 2. Same thing this year. Lay the points. Toronto actually led Game 1 at the half, 51-46. But the wheels came off after halftime w/ them scoring only 32 total points on 7 of 35 shooting! They finished the game at only 36% from the field. Lowry was the biggest offender, going 2 for 11 (no FT attempts!) including 0 for 6 from three-point range. As a team, they shot 5 of 23 from behind the arc. I expect across the board improvement here in Game 2. Like I mentioned in the Over writeup, this is a team that averages 110.2 PPG at home for the year. They shoot 47.2% overall from the floor including 37% from three-point range. The Bucks are 6-18 ATS the L3 seasons after allowing 85 pts or less the last three seasons. Though I like this game to go Over, it is worth noting Milwaukee has failed to top 100 points in six consecutive games. Interesting is that even though the Bucks went 17-10 SU down the stretch, they were outscored during that time. This is a team w/ a losing road record and considering they've already "stolen" home court advantage for the series, the likelihood of a letdown here is strong. 8* Toronto |
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04-17-17 | Grizzlies +11 v. Spurs | Top | 82-96 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
10* Memphis (9:35 ET): The Grizzlies were absolutely hammered in Game 1. I had the Over, a play which cashed, but it was no thanks to the Grizz. They scored just 82 points in a 29 point loss. Predictably, after suffering such a blowout, they'll be getting plenty more points in Game 2. That's a perfect time to attack, in my opinion. Needless to say, it's not as if things can go any worse than they did Saturday where they shot only 39.2% from the floor and the Spurs shot 53.2%. As explained in my analysis for Game 1, losing Tony Allen hurts both literally and figuratively, but Memphis remains a staunch defensive team. They also beat San Antonio twice during the regular season. Granted, both wins were at home, but never have they gotten this many points. With a pointspread this high and a total so low, taking points just seems like the natural way to go. It should be pointed out that it was only a three-point game at halftime Saturday and Memphis actually led after one quarter of play. After halftime, they could make nothing. They scored just 33 pts in the second half. Incredibly, they scored only 52 points over the last three quarters! That's very rare. As good as the Spurs are defensively (#1 in efficiency), they will be hard pressed to match that Game 1 performance. They key trend here is that double digit dogs are 26-12-1 ATS come playoff time when off a SU loss. Think of the Grizzlies as a stock. This is a good "buy low" situation. I know that in the analysis for my Game 1 Over play, I wrote extensively about the impact Allen's absence would have. But the Grizzlies were the #3 team in defensive efficiency during the regular season and should be able to play respectable enough on that end of the floor even w/o Allen. Kawhi Leonard is unlikely to match Saturday's performance in which he matched a career playoff high w/ 32 points. Lost in the blowout was the fact the Grizzlies' Marc Gasol scored 25 first half points, the most by any player against a Greg Popovich team in playoff history! Gasol obviously isn't likely to be as prolific in the first 24 minutes here, but he's also likely to score more than the seven he scored in the second half Saturday. Spurs are just 2-5 ATS L7 when leading in a playoff series. 10* Memphis. |
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04-15-17 | Jazz +5.5 v. Clippers | Top | 97-95 | Win | 100 | 33 h 56 m | Show |
10* Utah (10:35 ET): Make no mistake about it. The fact that the Jazz conceded home court advantage to the Clippers late in the year for this 1st round playoff series could end up being their death knell. But, that's no reason to think they can't be competitive or even steal a game here at Staples Center. After all, the Jazz did finish the year w/ a superior efficiency rating. They are also the superior defensive team here, ranking third in the league in defensive efficiency and first in points allowed. That's obviously significant. The Clips' three regular season wins over the Jazz all did come by double digits, but I anticipate this game being close w/ the underdog certainly having a shot at the outright win. Take the points. Look for the Jazz to slow the pace down in this series. They played at the slowest pace in the league during the regular season. That aided them in giving up just 96.8 points per game. Considering the defensive numbers, I have been absolutely shocked to see this team struggle as an underdog. They are just 5-17 SU and 6-15-1 ATS in that role, but it's rare that they get this many points. It's difficult to overstate Rudy Gobert's impact on the defensive end as he averages a league-high 2.64 blocks per game. For so much of the year, this team was not healthy. They still won 51 times and remember they were priced to win 60. That's more than the Clippers, who were favored "only" 58 times. After a 14-2 SU start, LA went a modest 37-29 the rest of the way. Yes, some of that was Chris Paul and Blake Griffin both missing time. When that duo plays together, this is certainly a dominant team. But while bench play is somewhat mitigated this time of year, the Clippers' reserves have long been an albatross. In the four head to head meetings between these two, the Jazz' reserves outplayed their Clippers' counterparts. In their three losses to the Clippers, Utah shot poorly. I do not anticipate that being the case here in Game 1 as overall this was a good shooting team (46.6 FG%) during the year. 10* Utah |
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04-11-17 | Hornets +7.5 v. Hawks | Top | 76-103 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 57 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (7:35 ET): Atlanta is off a pair of stunning victories over Cleveland, the second of which saw them become just the third team in NBA history to rally back from a deficit of 26 points or more in the fourth quarter. Those two wins have them in the playoffs, though their seeding remains totally up for grabs. They could finish anywhere from fifth to seventh depending on how these last two games go. Tomorrow night, they'll wrap their regular season up against Indiana, a national TV game that will play a significant role in who finishes were (the Pacers are one of the teams fighting w/ the Hawks for playoff position). But up first, the Hawks must host Charlotte and this looks like a classic overlay due to the teams' respective lots in life. Take the points. I'm telling you right now. Next year, I will be subbing Charlotte in for Atlanta as a playoff team in the Eastern Conference. Despite being only 36-45, which is 6.5 games back of the Hawks, the Hornets have actually outscored their opponents over the course of the season and have a positive net efficiency rating. Atlanta can claim neither of those two distinctions. In fact, the Hawks are ninth in the Eastern Conference in point differential. Charlotte lost last night in Milwaukee, 89-79 as 6.5-point dogs, and will again be w/o leading scorer Kemba Walker here. That, along w/ Atlanta trying to lock down the 5-seed, has conspired to make this line far higher than it should. Teams are often significantly undervalued in the second game of a back to back. Now, the Hornets are just 4-22 SU as underdogs this year. But the real reason they won't be making the playoffs is an 0-9 SU record in games decided by three points or less. They are also 0-6 SU in overtime games. Another close loss here would do us just fine and I should note that Charlotte is 3-0 SU/ATS head to head vs. Atlanta this season.That includes one of those four SU wins as a dog, which took place here in Atlanta back on December 17th. As discouraging as last night's offensive effort was, Charlotte is definitely undervalued in this spot. Atlanta, meanwhile, is just 3-8 ATS after scoring 115+ points the previous game. They were extremely lucky to beat Cleveland both times over the weekend. 8* Charlotte |
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04-10-17 | Rockets +5.5 v. Clippers | Top | 96-125 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
8* Houston (10:35 ET): The Clippers find themselves in the midst of a fierce battle for home court advantage (w/ the Jazz) in the 1st round of the playoffs while the Rockets already know who they'll be taking on next week (Oklahoma City). That being said, LA does not deserve to be favored by this much against a superior team, even here at Staples Center where they have lost only seven times all year as a favorite. They are just .500 at the betting window in home games. I suspect the reason for this inflated number is that Houston finds itself playing in the second game of a back to back. They won last night in Sacramento, 135-128, but failed to cover as nine-point favorites. It was their seventh straight game not covering. But fortunately, they are 13-2 SU, 10-4-1 ATS in the second game of a back to back. Take the points here. The Rockets put up 75 points in the first half last night, the 10th such time they've tallied 70+ before halftime this season. Granted, it was "only the Kings," but be aware that non-cover was a byproduct of being "backdoored" in the fourth quarter (outscored 39-28). James Harden, who is the thick of the MVP race, answered Russell Westbrook w/ his own triple double last night (35-11-15). To me, Houston is clearly the third best team in basketball. It is rare to find them getting points, but when they do - take 'em. Their record as an underdog this season is 9-3 ATS (9-1-1 on the road). Earlier I mentioned the Rockets' excellent record when playing w/o rest. I've often harped upon the fact that unrested teams are among the most undervalued in the sport, especially when on the road. Incredibly, the Rockets are outscoring opponents by over 10 PPG in the second game of a B2B and that includes a 3-0-1 ATS mark if both were on the road. The Clippers have taken advantage of a somewhat fortuitous schedule of late in compiling a five-game win streak. That includes games against the Suns, Lakers and Mavs. They did post an impressive 98-87 victory at San Antonio (who was NOT resting starters) on Saturday. I suspect that result also has a heavy influence in this number being inflated. The Clips' defense has been much better of late, but this is the second most efficient offense in the game they'll be facing tonight. It's a national TV affair and w/ Harden making his case for MVP, Houston will be motivated. To me, this line should be closer to a pick 'em. 8* Houston |
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04-07-17 | Thunder v. Suns +8 | Top | 99-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (10:05 ET): Yes, it must be mentioned that a Suns team that has lost 13 straight games has absolutely nothing to play for here. But neither does Oklahoma City really. In all likelihood, the Thunder will be the 6-seed in the playoffs play Houston. From an individual perspective, Russell Westbrook is still looking to make history and become the first player since Oscar Robertson to average a triple double over the course of a season. He needs one more triple double to set the single season record (42). But something I've been harping on all season is that overall, OKC's offensive efficiency is way down from last year w/ Kevin Durant. They also have a losing road record and are outscoring teams by less than a point per game. Clearly, this number is inflated. Take the points. Phoenix has not won a game since beating Dallas 100-98 back on March 11th. While a 13-game losing skid is bad no matter what way you "slice it," the fact is the Suns have been competitive in most of the games. They did fall behind Golden State 41-18 after one quarter on Wednesday, but quickly rallied back to make it a five-point game at halftime and very nearly covered the spread for the game, losing by nine as 8.5-pt home dogs. This line is curious because Oklahoma City is getting basically the same respect from the linesmakers as did the Warriors and that notion is pretty preposterous. Golden State is outscoring teams by double digits this season while the Thunder have been pretty mediocre. The Suns beat the Thunder here at home last month (118-111) and were only five-point underdogs then. I mentioned earlier that OKC has a losing road record. They are just 17-21 SU and being outscored by 4.3 points per game. They did just win at Memphia, but only by three. Giving up 108.1 PPG on the road makes it tough to cover as a favorite in this price range and while the defense has been better the L2 games, I see it regressing here as the Suns are #2 in the league in tempo and average 109.1 PPG at home. Rookie point guard Tyler Ulis has played well of late, including a 34-point effort Sunday vs. the Rockets. I see the home team keeping this one closer than expected. 10* Phoenix |
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04-06-17 | Bulls v. 76ers +6.5 | Top | 102-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): The Sixers infamous "process" has generally been maligned, but at least the team is getting it done at the betting window where they are a league-best 48-29-1 ATS. Miami is the only other team in the league right now that can claim to be covering at better than a 60% clip. Now things have gotten dicey in the City of Brotherly Love recently as the team has reverted back to its past ways by losing four in a row. By far, the more humiliating (and inexcusable) defeat of the quartet came here at home Tuesday against Brooklyn when they allowed 141 points. That result is sure to cause the majority of bettors to "write this team off" but I'll buy low as Chicago is unworthy of being in this price range on the road. Take the points. The Bulls also enter in off an embarrassing defeat. There's also came Tuesday, but on the road. Fighting for their playoff lives, they fell to the sorry Knicks, 100-91 as five-point chalk. Don't let that final score fool you into thinking it was a close game either; the Bulls trailed by as many as 25 in the third quarter in a disastrous effort which saw them shoot 38.1% from the field and commit 15 turnovers. I was on the Knicks in that game and in my analysis I made it clear that the Bulls are an unworthy road favorite. I'm sticking to that story here. The team's record away from the Windy City is just 15-24 straight up. This will be just the 8th time all year that they have been favored on the road. Overall, they've been outscored this season, including by 2.6 points per game on the road. I'll concede that Philadelphia's current lineup resembles a M*A*S*H unit, but there's still a sense of pride involved with professional players and those left playing out the string will certainly want to atone for Tuesday's disastrous showing. "Today our performance was under any NBA level," said rookie forward Dario Saric, in reference to the Brooklyn loss. There is simply no way that the Bulls will end up shooting as well as the Nets did Tuesday night. Not only did Brooklyn score 81 (!) pts in the 1H, they were 12 of 17 on three-pointers and shot 64% overall for the game. Chicago has been one of the worst offensive teams in the league all season, ranking 28th in true shooting and dead last (30th) in effective field goal percentage. A very easy schedule may cause this subpar team to make the playoffs, but it won't come easy. 10* Philadelphia |
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04-05-17 | Heat v. Hornets -1.5 | Top | 112-99 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 27 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): To call this an "important game" from both the Hornets' and Heat's perspectives would be a mild understatement. Right now, both are on the "outside looking in" when it comes to the Eastern Conference playoff picture. Miami is in much better position though as they are just one-half game out of seventh place, which is currently shared by Indiana and Chicago. Charlotte is two games back and with only four more to play, a loss here would be crippling. Losing last night in Washington really hurt. Getting outscored 36-18 in the third quarter is what did them in. But I've maintained all year that this team is better than its record shows (they have outscored their opponents this season!) and I'm going to stick w/ them here. If the Hornets ultimately do not make the playoffs, they can pin their fate on an awful 0-9 SU record in games decided by three points or less. They are also 0-6 SU in overtime games. That is quite the contrast from last season when they went 5-0 SU in OT and finished sixth in the East. I already mentioned that this year's squad has a positive point differential for the year and their net efficiency rating is also "in the black." Overall, I rate the Hornets as slightly better than the Heat, so I believe this line should be higher. Normally, when these teams meat here in Charlotte, the Under is automatic. It's cashed eight straight times and 23 of the L29 meetings. But here, beware of the fact the Hornets come in averaging 112.8 PPG their last five games and 106.6 PPG overall at home. Miami is also off a loss. Actually, they've dropped B2B games as favorites, both at home. The losses came to the Knicks and Nuggets, the latter taking place on Sunday as they basically trailed the whole way. They were torched for 116 pts, including 37 in the first quarter. A real key to the recent stumbles has been the absence of Dion Waiters. He'll be out again tonight. Waiters was the reason the Heat beat the Hornets in the last meeting (24 pts), but in the first two meetings this year, the team shot just 35.7%. One final thing I should point out here is that Charlotte blew a double digit lead last night. Holding division opponents to just 97.6 PPG this year, I look for the home team to record a huge win tonight. 10* Charlotte No ActionNo |
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04-04-17 | Bulls v. Knicks +4 | Top | 91-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
10* New York (8:05 ET): Chicago finds itself in currently in playoff position, despite being one game below .500. They've won four straight and are in seventh place. Right now, only five games seperate fifth from 11th place in the East. The Bulls have only a one game lead over ninth place Indiana. Meanwhile, the Knicks are already out of contention in what has been another lost year. They come into tonight having lost 10 of 13, including a 110-94 loss to Boston on Sunday. Yet they're a good value here, or rather the Bulls are a team I wouldn't want to be laying points with on the road. As bad as things might have been in the Big Apple this year, the Knicks do have a winning ATS record. Take the points. Chicago's road record is only 15-23, so they are hardly an ideal candidate to be laying points in this situation. Over the course of the season, they've still been outscored, not only on the road, but overall as well. Like I said earlier, they have won four in a row though. Three of those victories came as dogs. The latest was in New Orleans Sunday, 117-110 as 8.5-pt dogs. That was a game where Jimmy Butler scored 39 points and the entire team shot well. But I look for a decline in offensive numbers moving forward. For the year, they average just over 102 PPG. Their last five games have seen them average 117 PPG. The Knicks are 2-0 SU/ATS head to head w/ the Bulls this season, including a 15-pt win here in MSG back in January. They also won by double digits in Chicago early in the season. While the Bulls are projected for a decrease in offense, the Knicks are set to see an uptick given that they average 105 PPG at home, yet have failed to break 100 pts in five of the past six games. Carmelo Anthony did not play Sunday, but is set to return here. Who cares about the absence of Derrick Rose at this point? As bad as things have been for the Knicks this year, I would still rate this matchup as a pick em, so naturally taking the points is the way to go. 10* New York |
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04-03-17 | North Carolina v. Gonzaga +2 | Top | 71-65 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
10* Gonzaga (9:20 ET): It has all come down to this. Two #1 seeds, one stored program and the other not so much. Gonzaga let me and the rest of their backers down Saturday, beating South Carolina 77-73 as 6.5-pt dogs. (They had led by as many as 14 in the second half). But the 'Zags will "take it" as they won their first Final Four game ever. North Carolina also survived a close call, winning by just a single point over Oregon and thus not covering. To preserve the victory, they got two offensive rebounds after going 0 for 4 at the free throw line. It was a very lucky win as was the one over Kentucky in the Elite 8. That's two straight wins by two points or less for UNC. Teams favored by two points or less in the National Championship Game have lost four straight times. I'm on Gonzaga here. Defensive efficiency is such a key metric to me. It's something I've been harping on throughout this tournament. It actually served as a great predictor of South Carolina's surprising run as they rank third nationally in defensive efficiency. Gonzaga ranks 1st. North Carolina isn't bad, but they're 16th. They held Oregon to just 37.9% shooting Saturday, which was impressive, not to mention needed as they only shot 36.8% themselves. Outside of Kennedy Meeks, no UNC player had a good offensive game. People will want to predict improvement for this matchup, but I'm not so sure. Gonzaga has held 11 of its last 12 opponents below 42%. Only three teams shot better than 40% during that span. I expect the most efficient defense to assert itself again here and triumph over the UNC offense. Despite the non-cover Saturday, Gonzaga is still 23-10 ATS this year. Tonight will mark the first time all season that they have not been favored. I would have them favored here. Yes, much of the focus here will be on UNC atoning for LY's Champ Game loss to Villanova. But this is Gonzaga's year. They have been the best team in the nation virtually the entire year. They will show that tonight and win the school's first ever Championship. Roy Williams and company will have to settle for being bridesmaids a second year in a row. 10* Gonzaga |
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04-02-17 | Hornets +5.5 v. Thunder | Top | 113-101 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (3:05 ET): Here we have a classic case of a team that's better than its record taking on a team that is not as good as its record. Charlotte would be the former, OKC would be the latter. Here's the eye-opener. The Hornets are six games below .500 and the Thunder are 11 games over .500. Despite that discrepancy, however, they have identical YTD point differentials! That makes this line somewhat inflated, IMO. Charlotte was a nice win for me Friday night by downing Denver. Meanwhile, I won that same night going against OKC as they blew a huge lead at home against San Antonio. That one will sting. Take the points. The Hornets actually rank higher in offensive efficiency. I keep harping on this, but the Thunder have seen their offensive efficiency nosedive this year despite Russell Westbrook's individual exploits. They are 22nd in the league in assists. They clearly miss Kevin Durant. They were held below 100 pts (2nd time in 3 games) by the Spurs. Charlotte comes in averaging 113 PPG its last five games and has hit at least 105 in seven straight. I should point out that the Hornets have already beaten the Thunder once this year. It was 123-112, in Charlotte, back in January. Key for the Hornets was getting to the FT line 49 times. Two games out of the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference, Charlotte can't afford to lose many games the rest of the way. Thus, taking points seems like a natural move here. I'd actually rank them as the better team here. Overall, they've won six of eight. 8* Charlotte |
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04-01-17 | Kings +11.5 v. Wolves | Top | 123-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
8* Sacramento (8:05 ET): This is the second of a back to back for the Kings, who lost last night 117-89 in New Orleans. Predictably, they've become undervalued here as a result. Truth be told, this team's season ended for all intents and purposes at the All-Star when they traded DeMarcus Cousins. They've won only five games since the Break, but interestingly the last time was when they were playing w/o rest. Granted that was at home, but the opponent was a good Memphis team. Tonight, they're in Minnesota, who is better than their record but probably should never be favored in this price range. Take the points. The T'wolves had lost six in a row (also 0-6 ATS) before beating Indiana (by one) and the Lakers. I've made the case many times before that this is a team whose record should be much closer to .500 (their point differential is near 0). However, this price range really doesn't fit them. Sure they did just cover as DD faves against the Lakers Thursday. Off a SU win, they are only 11-18 ATS this year. As a favorite, they are only 13-19 ATS. Off a double digit win, they are just 5-12 SU. Bottom line is that this is a team I simply would not favor by double digits in consecutive contests. The Kings shot below 40% from the field last night, so they should probably improve in that department. I just can't see them getting blown out for a third straight game. This is a clear case of "buying low" on a team. They are 9-5 ATS after allowing 115 points in the last game. The offense almost HAS to improve after four straight sub-100 pt efforts. They've averaged just 92 PPG the L5 games, which is well above their season-long average of 102.1 PPG. If they can get to that season average, then they should be in good shape here. The T'wolve let opponents shoot above 47% from the field. They also give up nearly 106 PPG. Look for the road team to stay within a generous number. 8* Sacramento |
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04-01-17 | South Carolina v. Gonzaga -6.5 | Top | 73-77 | Loss | -105 | 101 h 44 m | Show |
10* Gonzaga (6:09 ET): Just to show how unlikely a run its has been for South Carolina getting to the Final Four (1st appearance in school history), note that they have been an underdog in all four games in this Tournament. Yes, they were even a slight dog as the higher seed vs. Marquette. Three times they have trailed going into halftime. Sunday, in the Elite 8 against Florida, they faced a seven-point deficit at the break, but were able to overcome that by holding the Gators to 0 for 14 from three-point range after half. Gonzaga also is making its first Final Four appearance in school history, but in their case the trip is long overdue. This has been one of the nation's most successful programs over the last 17 years. A top seed, the Bulldogs are now 23-9 ATS this season. They have been favored in every game. I'll lay the points here as South Carolina's unlikely run ends. Gonzaga had no problem w/ 11-seed Xavier in the Elite 8, winning that matchup 83-59 as 8.5-point chalk. I laid the points there as well. Something that continues to get overlooked is the fact that the Zags are #1 in the country in defensive efficiency. They held Xavier to just 35.5% shooting. That was the 8th time in the L11 games where they held the opposition below 37% shooting. So, with all the talk likely to be about South Carolina's defense, note Gonzaga's is better. Northwestern is the only tournament opponent of Gonzaga's to score more than 60 points thus far. This is just the fourth team in the last 20 seasons to enter a Final Four w/ a scoring differential better than +20 PPG. While South Carolina is #2 nationally in defensive efficiency, they are outside the top 100 offensively. For the sake of comparison, Gonzaga is 14th in offensive efficiency. It's been rather shocking to see South Carolina score 70 or more in every Tournament game so far, but here is where I expect their offense to begin to struggle. In the halfcourt, Gonzaga's defense is allowing only .69 points per possession, an astounding number. They've allowed more than 65 points just four times in the L22 games. The 'Zags depth should allow them to avoid "wearing down" in the second half, something we've seen from previous South Carolina opponents. Also, Gonzaga doesn't turn the ball over much and that's an area that the Gamecocks have really benefited by forcing 17 TO's per game. South Carolina also is - by far - the weakest of the four remaining teams from behind the arc. For the year, they are connecting on just 33.3% of their three-point attempts. Gonzaga holds its opponents below 30% while hitting 37.8% itself. I think this line is off here far more than it was for the Zags game against Xavier. 10* Gonzaga |
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03-31-17 | Spurs -2 v. Thunder | Top | 100-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (8:05 ET): The Spurs figure to be in an ornery mood here after blowing a 22-pt lead and losing to Golden State their last time out. I was on the Warriors in that game, so that result was "A-ok" by me and now I can use it again to my advantage. The Spurs are 13-3 SU this year when off a SU loss and outscoring foes by 12.7 points per game in that situation. The opponent tonight is a somewhat overrated OKC side that again benefited from a virtuoso Russell Westbrook its last time out. Westbrook went 57-13-11 in a 114-106 win over Orlando that required overtime. Not only did it take OT to outlast the Magic though; the Thunder actually trailed by as many as 22 pts in the second half! I'll lay the short number with the road team here. The come from behind effort Wednesday was the largest in team history for the Thunder. Again, trailing Orlando by 22 is not a "good luck." Though 12 games above .500, I can make a pretty compelling case that OKC is a pretty mediocre team. In terms of points scored vs. allowed per 100 possessions, they're basically dead even. They have been a good home team, but the defensive numbers (106.1 PPG allowed) still concern me. So too does the offensive efficiency. Aside from Westbrook's individual exploits, this has not been a great offensive team this year. They are just 16th in offensive efficiency. San Antonio is 1st in defensive efficiency in the league and is the only team besides Utah to be giving up fewer than 100 PPG. In addition to the usual strong bounce back effort that we see from this group, they are 28-8 SU on the road. It's rare that they are favored by so little as well. Before losing to Golden State, they'd won five in a row, including the destruction of Cleveland on Monday. Underrated is a Spurs offensive which is top six in the league in efficiency. They are also 19-7 ATS This year vs. teams that average at least 106 PPG. Meanwhile, the Thunder are just 5-10 ATS their last 15 games vs. teams averaging that many points per game. 8* San Antonio |
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03-31-17 | Nuggets v. Hornets -2 | Top | 114-122 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Of the two teams in question here, Denver has the far better shot at reaching the playoffs. They are 1.5 games back of Portland, the current 8-seed out West. A crippling loss to the Blazers Tuesday really hurt, however, and was their second loss in a row. Meanwhile, Charlotte is seven games below .500 and three games back of the final playoff spot in the East. But their statistical profile is actually superior that of Denver. The Hornets are both outscoring teams over the course of the season as well on a per possession basis. They are off a much needed outright win in Toronto two nights ago and I believe will keep the momentum going here. Lay the short number. Overall, Charlotte is 5-2 SU and ATS their last seven games. Offensively, they appear to be peaking w/ a scoring average of more than 110 points over the L5 games. At home this year, they average 106.2 PPG. Therefore, they should take advantage of a defense which is among the very worst in the league. Denver is 29th. That's ahead of only the Lakers. If you look back at recent results, certainly one could make the case that Denver's defense is costing them big time. Over the L5 games, they've given up an average of over 118 PPG. Denver isn't a particularly good road team. They're just 15-21 SU overall. Several players are listed as questionable for this game - Will Barton, Darrell Arthur and Mason Plumlee - and any of their absences would obviously hurt. Then there is the fact that Charlotte has already beaten Denver this year, 112-102 in Denver, earlier this month. That game saw prolific Hornets shooting from three-point range and given the Nuggets allow an ever higher percentage from behind the arc on the road, I can see that being the difference again. 10* Charlotte |
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03-30-17 | Cavs v. Bulls +5.5 | Top | 93-99 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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03-29-17 | Warriors +5 v. Spurs | Top | 110-98 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
10* Golden State (9:35 ET): The Warriors shouldn't have been underdogs last night (I played them and they won in Houston) nor should they be a dog tonight. Yes, I'm well aware that this is the second game of a back to back and the opponent is San Antonio. I have this game essentially as a Pick 'em, so naturally taking points is the way to go. The only time all season, previous to last night, that the Dubs were getting points came here in San Antonio on 3.11. But that was w/ them resting all their stars. Being that their record vs. the Spurs is 0-2 SU/ATS this season (lost by 29 to them at home on Opening NIght), I'd say this game will be treated w/ the utmost importance by the defending Western Conference Champs. After all, they only lead the Spurs by 1.5 games in the standings. Teams playing in the second game of a back to back are often undervalued and that's what we have going on here. With last night's 113-106 win in Houston, the Warriors joined the Jordan-era Bulls as the only two teams in league history to win 200 regular season games over a three-year span. It goes w/o saying that's very impressive. I said it last night and I'll say it again here. This was the top team in the league each of the L2 years w/o Kevin Durant, so his absence doesn't bother me all that much. Last night, it was the Dubs' defense that shined, holding high-powered Houston to a season-low five three-pointers made. They led by as many as 22 in the second quarter and keep in mind Draymond Green didn't have a particularly good game. While last night was all about the defensive advantage over the Rockets (teams are 1-2 in offensive efficiency), tonight I'll tout the Warriors' offensive edge in a battle of the two most efficient defenses. While the respective defensive efficiencies are virtually dead even here, GSW is a clear 1st in the league on the offensive end. San Antonio is sixth. The Warriors are 11-4 SU this season when playing w/o rest, so the situation shouldn't bother them. As for San Antonio, they are off a dominant showing Monday vs. Cleveland and looking for a sixth straight win. I laid the points w/ Greg Popovich's team Monday, but that was the first time they won a game by double digits since beating the depleted Warriors roster three weeks ago. Keep in mind that Golden State has now won eight straight and six of those have been by double digits. Really impressive is that the Warriors are holding opponents to a "Spurs-like" average of 96.4 points the L5 games. Look for them to dictate the pace and cover the spread. 10* Golden State |
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03-29-17 | Bucks +8 v. Celtics | Top | 103-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (7:35 ET): I thought this number was too high even before the Bucks went into Charlotte and whipped the Hornets last night, 118-108 as four-point dogs. Therefore, I'm clearly going to back them here as this is an inflated number due to the fact they're in the second game of a back to back. Often times, NBA teams are undervalued in this spot (especially on the road) and that's precisely what we have going on here. Even through the "bad times," I've been pretty consistent in preaching that this Milwaukee team is better than its record shows. Sure enough, they've won 12 of 15 here in March. Meanwhile, Boston is now the top seed in the East (Cleveland fading!), so it's probably a good time to fade them. Take the points. The Celtics have been pretty hot in their own right, winning four in a row and seven of their last eight. But backing up the notion that it's likely a good time to "sell high" on them is the fact they are 2-13 ATS this season when off three or more consecutive SU wins. Sure enough, they failed to cover Sunday vs. Miami, winning only 112-108 as six-point home chalk. I've got Milwaukee rated as a better team than Miami, so again, this line looks off to me. The last four games for Boston have all come here at home and they've hardly been winning by dominant margins. Their biggest win came against Phoenix and that was by only 10 pts. That happened to be the game where Devin Booker went for 70 by himself. Boston's defense is not as good as it's been in past years as they allow over 105 PPG. Also, this season has seen the team go just 4-7 SU and 3-8 ATS when playing w/ exactly two days rest. Aside from the obvious top four in the Eastern Conference, I like this Milwaukee team the most. They shot 62.2% from the floor last night and dominated Charlotte. They had 72 points by halftime and led by 18 going into the fourth quarter. That's despite forcing only FOUR turnovers the entire game and getting outscored 15-2 in transition. I wouldn't be too afraid of any kind of letdown here given the Bucks are 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS when coming off a SU win as a dog. In the only prior meeting this season, Milwaukee was the favorite, though at home and they lost. But given that Boston is only outscoring foes by two points more per 100 possessions than is Milwaukee, my view is that this line is simply too high. 10* Milwaukee |
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03-28-17 | Warriors +1.5 v. Rockets | Top | 113-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
8* Golden State (8:05 ET): It does appear as if some early sharp money showed up on the Rockets here. I can only assume that has something to do w/ the fact that the Warriors are playing in San Antonio tomorrow night. But I'm of the opinion that the Dubs should NOT be an underdog here. Really, they shouldn't ever be an underdog. After some early struggles w/o Kevin Durant, clearly this team has gotten things going. They've won seven games in a row, the last six all coming by double digit margins. I've stressed this before and I'll reiterate it again here: this was the top team in the league each of the L2 years w/o Durant and there's no reason to expect they can't be again. They were 5.5-pt favorites in January's visit to Houston (won 125-108) and I don't buy that Durant's absence should have that significant an impact on the pointspread. Over the L3 seasons, these teams have played 19 times. Golden State has won 16 of those games. It's actually not the 1st time they will have been a dog. On New Year's Eve 2015, they were 3.5-pt dogs here in Houston and won 114-110. Not only did they not have Durant in that last game, they were w/o Steph Curry as well. Certainly, the Rockets are improved this season. But while they're almost at the Warriors' level offensively (teams are 1-2 in efficiency), it's not even close at the other end of the floor. Always underrated is the fact that the Warriors consistently rank near the top of the league in defensive efficiency. This year, they're second, just slightly behind the Spurs. Houston is tied for 16th. Over the L5 games, the Rockets have given up an average of 117.8 points per game. Golden State has allowed an average of just 93.6. The Warriors have only been a dog in one other game this year. It was 17 days ago when they rested all their key players in San Antonio. So this will be the first time all year you don't have to lay points w/ them and get Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green all in the lineup. On the other side, Houston's James Harden injured his wrist in Sunday's win over OKC. He's listed as probable, but the problem is that the Rockets are far more dependent on Harden that the Warriors are on any one player. There is simply no way Houston matches its shooting from Sunday when it went 63.3% from the floor (2nd highest percentage by any team this season) including 20 of 39 from three-point range. For a point of reference, they were just 7 of 35 from behind the arc the last time they faced the Warriors. 8* Golden State |
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03-27-17 | Cavs v. Spurs -4.5 | Top | 74-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (8:05 ET): Cleveland is in big trouble right now. Not just because they enter the day now tied w/ Boston for 1st place in the Eastern Conference (Celtics won yday). Their defense has just been awful of late and as a result their efficiency rating at that end of the floor has plummeted to 23rd, which would be the lowest of ANY playoff team except Denver, who will be mere first round fodder for Golden State. Forget about winning a potential rubber match with the Warriors in the NBA Finals, the defending NBA Champs may not even get out of the East! After another terrible defensive effort against the Wizards Saturday at home (lost 127-115), tonight brings a much tougher test as LeBron and company visit the Alamo to play the Spurs. Fade them. San Antonio has no such issues defensively. In fact, they are #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. That's a huge edge over the Cavs here as the offensive rating are somewhat similar (Cavs 3rd, Spurs 6th). While it's true the Spurs haven't won a game by double digits since beating the Warriors (who were resting everyone) two weeks ago, here they are finally not required to do so. This is probably one of the shorter spreads San Antonio will see at home all year, if not the shortest. Cleveland is just 2-9 SU as an underdog, 3-8 ATS. Sure, the majority of those games have come w/ LeBron resting, but the fact remains that this number is way too low. Cleveland has let four of its last five opponents shoot better than 50% from the floor and the Wizards finished at almost 60%! Look for the efficient Spurs to exploit that leaky defense. Particularly concerning for the Cavs is that they trailed both Denver and Washington most of the way and the deficit was often double digits. San Antonio is at a whole different level compared to those two teams. They too are in a battle for the top spot in their conference as they currently trail Golden State by only two games. The Spurs already beat the Cavs this year, in Cleveland, despite not having either Tony Parker or Pau Gasol in the linup. Kawhi Leonard scored 41 pts and given the Cavs' defensive ineptitude, could be in line for another big effort tonight. Cleveland gives up 109.9 PPG on the road while San ANtonio allows only 97.7 at home. 8* San Antonio |
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03-27-17 | Magic v. Raptors -9 | Top | 112-131 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
10* Toronto (7:35 ET): If you're a regular follower of mine, much of the case I'm going to make for the Raptors here will be "old hat." But it bears repeating how undervalued this team has become in the wake of the Kyle Lowry injury. It is them, not Cleveland or Boston, that sports the Eastern Conference's top net efficiency rating and point differential. Those numbers have only continued to improve in the wake of a current five-game win streak, which has seen them prevail by double digits four times. I had them Saturday night in Dallas when they were badly mispriced (+1) and won 94-86. Tonight finds them laying the biggest number since the Lowry injury, but it's still not nearly enough against the lowly Magic, a team which rates as the third worst in the entire league. Orlando has actually won three of its previous four games, including a 115-87 decision at Detroit on Friday. But that only serves to keep the number down. The Magic's other two wins came against Phoenix and Philadelphia, both fellow bottom five teams. Shockingly, they did beat Toronto twice in a week back around the Super Bowl. One win came here "North of the Border" as 11-pt dogs. The other was as a 5.5-pt home dog. But tonight should be all about the Raptors' gaining revenge. It starts w/ the fact that Orlando is only 2-14 SU this season off a SU win as a dog. They are also 0-9 SU after scoring 115+ points the previous game. They shot 51.6% from the floor against the Pistons, something that is unlikely to be repeated given that they rank 29th in offenseive efficiency. In six of their previous eight games, they shot 43.7% or worse. Defense has been a big reason for the Magic winning three of their last four games. Detroit shot just 35.4% on Friday while Philadelphia and Phoenix also both had bad shooting nights. The 76ers are the only team in the league w/ a lower offensive efficiency rating than Orlando and Detroit is the only team worse in true shooting percentage. Meanwhile, Toronto is a top five team in the league in offensive efficiency and averages 110.8 PPG at home. Even w/o Lowry, there are plenty of options here, most notably DeMar DeRozan. Defensively, the Raptors have held four opponents to 91 pts or less during the current win streak. This should be a blowout, which is why I'm laying the points! 10* Toronto |
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03-26-17 | Pelicans +5.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 115-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (8:05 ET): Pre-DeMarcus Cousins, I could see this line being valid. But the Pelicans seem to have now integrated "Boogie" into the lineup and are a lot better team now, even though they did lose to Houston Friday. Previously, they'd won three straight and five of six. Tonight's game may very well be "for the season" as they are at eighth place Denver. With 10 games to play, they are five back of the Nuggets. A loss here and the Pelicans can probably kiss their playoff chances goodbye. I'll concede that Denver has been hot of late (6-2 SU L8 games, 7-1 ATS), but it's probably about time for them to cool off a bit. Defensively, they are not a good team at all and to me, that makes them unappealing in the role of favorite. Take the points. Yes, I'm well aware that Cousins is listed as questionable for tonight due to an ankle injury. But given the stakes, I'd be surprised if he didn't play. If he doesn't, I'm actually okay w/ that too. The team has won both games he's missed since coming over from Sacramento, by margins of 16 pts or greater. One of those wins came against the Rockets. With Cousins in the lineup, the Pelicans lost to the Rockets Friday, but note it was actually a one-point game going into the fourth quarter and they did a pretty good job defensively. This will be the first meeting w/ Denver since the season opener, a game the Pelicans lost by five despite 50 pts and 15 rebounds from Anthony Davis. There's a chance Denver could be w/o its leading scorer, Danilo Gallinari, as well. So the absences could end up "cancelling each other out" here. I noted earlier that the Nuggets are not good defensively. To illustrate that point, they rank 29th in efficiency, which places them right between the Nets and Lakers. They are actually closer to last place than they are 28th! Their last three opponents have all shot at least 50% from the field. It's tough to keep winning when you're allowing that kind of shooting. With a big five-game road trip looming, I wouldn't be shocked if Denver gets caught "peeking ahead" and overlooks tonight's game a bit. That won't be the case for New Orleans, who again faces a must win. 8* New Orleans |
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03-26-17 | South Carolina v. Florida -3 | Top | 77-70 | Loss | -108 | 27 h 2 m | Show |
10* Florida (2:20 ET): This line is several points lower than it ought to be and I'm taking full advantage. It always stinks not to be able to cash a winning ticket, but nevertheless I still came away impressed w/ Florida did Friday night. The Gators won what was the "game of the Tournament" thus far, beating Wisconsin 84-83 in overtime on a miraculous three-point shot at the buzzer. How ironic that Wisconsin sent the game to OT on a similar shot. Though it was not a cover for me (had UF -2), being able to win after such a dominant peformance the previous round is pretty impressive. I still put a ton of stock into the Gators' 65-39 dismantling of Virginia in the second round. Meanwhile, I do not believe South Carolina will be able to respond as well from its best Tourney performance to date, a 70-50 beatdown of Baylor in the Sweet 16. Lay the short number here. Defensive efficiency is so important this time of year and in that department there is no real edge in this matchup. South Carolina may have been considered a "long shot" to make the Tournament, but they rank 3rd nationally in defensive efficiency, one spot ahead of Florida. It was the 70-50 win over Baylor on Friday that moved them slightly ahead. In that game, the Gamecocks held their opponents to just 30% shooting for the game. That's after holding Duke to 38% in the second half in a stunning second round upset. But Florida is no slouch in this department as they held Virginia to 29.6% shooting. Wisconsin shot 50%, but again, that makes winning all the more impressive for the Gators. But the real key here is a massive gap on the offensive end. Florida ranks 25th in offensive efficiency while South Carolina is 115th, easily the worst among the Elite 8 (no one else lower than 27th). These teams being SEC rivals, obviously we have regular seasons results to analyze. This will be a rubber match w/ each team having won on its home floor. The Gamecocks won 57-53 in Columbia due Florida going an unfathomable 0 for 17 from three-point range. In Gainesville, the Gators were 9 of 19 from behind the arc and won 81-66. The two games have seen South Carolina only shoot 37 of 107 from the floor (including 7 of 27 from three-point range). Often, I might call for those numbers to improve, but not here. Florida holds its opponents to just 30% shooting from three-point range for the year. The Gators are also 25-3 SU when favored this season, going 19-8-1 ATS. 10* Florida |
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03-25-17 | Wolves +7 v. Blazers | Top | 100-112 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (10:05 ET): Though Portland is the one fighting for a playoff berth (and was a playoff team LY as well), I think most objective measures would consider the T'wolves to be the better overall team here. Thus, a spread this high is certainly not warranted, not even w/ Minny being in the second game of a back to back. Sure, last night was the latest in a long line of frustrating setbacks for the young T'wolves, not to mention possibly the most embarrassing one yet. They fell, in overtime, to the Lakers by a score of 130-119. It was a game they led by 15 in the third quarter. Blowing leads, many of them the double digit variety, has been far too common for Minnesota this year, but getting points tonight I feel comfortable giving them my endorsement. Take the points. Even after five consecutive SU losses, a streak which has also seen them go 0-5 ATS, the T'wolves are basically dead even with their opponents in terms of scoring over the course of the year. This despite actually being 15 games below .500 entering tonight's game. Clearly, it's been a case of a young team being rather "unlucky" as there's plenty of talent on hand here. Andrew Wiggins scored 36 points last night and Karl Anthony Towns is a top 10 player in this league. They were up by eight last night w/ just over two minutes to go in regulation! When Zach Lavine and Nikola Pekovic return next season (both OFY) plus another lottery pick is in the fold, this will be a lock to make my "Most Improved" list. Teams are often undervalued in the second game of a B2B and sure enough the T'wolves are 7-4 ATS in that role this season. Portland was a pleasant surprise LY, surviving the loss of four starters from the previous season, one an All-Star in LaMarcus Aldridge. But after three consecutive playoff appearance (twice made the Conf Semis), this year finds them fighting for their postseason lives. Entering tonight, they still trail Denver by 1.5 games for the 8th and final spot in the West. They have been outscored by a larger margin that Minnesota has over the course of the year and the defense has generally been awful (24th in efficiency). Not to mention, this is one of the worst ATS teams in the league at 31-40 (ahead of only Orland). They did just beat the Knicks, who were in the second game of a B2B, Thursday. But Minnesota is a far more formidable opponent. The underdog has won outright in both prior meetings between these teams this season. 8* Minnesota |
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03-25-17 | Oregon +6.5 v. Kansas | Top | 74-60 | Win | 100 | 30 h 4 m | Show |
10* Oregon (8:49 ET): Kansas seems to be the "toast of the town," both literally and figuratively right now. Playing in Kansas City, they are heavy favorite to advance to the Final Four as the top seed in their region. They may want to consider applying for membership in the Big 10 after thrashing both Michigan State and Purdue in their last two games, winning by a combined 52 points. But their Elite 8 opponent, Oregon, just happened to beat the Big 10's hottest team (Michigan) themselves. The Ducks have been able to persevere despite losing big man Chris Boucher to a season-ending ACL injury before the Tournament. It's rare to find them getting this many points (in fact, this will easily be the most they've gotten in any game this season), so I'll leap at the opportunity. Take the points. The Ducks have been an underdog in only three games all season, twice to UCLA and in an early season game at Baylor. That's a pair of Sweet 16 teams. Kansas is better than both, so it's not shocking to find the Jayhawks favored by more, but I still believe the line is inflated based off KU's last two results. Note that it was only a five-point game vs. Michigan State at the half and the margin stayed the same halfway through the second. Closing the game on a 30-15 run (including 21-6 over the final 7 minutes) certainly skewed perception. Then against Purdue, Bill Self's team trailed most of the first half. Again though, it was a dominant second half performance. I simply refuse to believe the Jayhawks can continue shooting at the current rate (47% on 3's, 60% on 2's!) and I've got to again point out the team has a fortunate 12-3 SU record in games decided by single digits. Oregon has shot the ball quite well themselves in this Tournament and has an offense capable of matching Kansas. The Ducks turned the ball over just FIVE times against Michigan. Given the Jayhawks have been making a "killing" in transition, if Oregon can take care of the basketball again, they should be in good shape. They are after all 11-3 ATS this season vs. teams averaging 77 points or more. And remember they were favored in the bulk of those contests. Defensively, these teams are basically even w/ Kansas 23rd in efficiency and Oregon 24th. The Ducks actually own the better scoring differential, however, at +13.5 compared to "just" +12.1 for KU. All things considered, I would have this spread several points lower and it's probably a good time to fade Kansas coming off a "peak" performance. 10* Oregon |
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03-25-17 | Raptors +1 v. Mavs | Top | 94-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
10* Toronto (8:35 ET): I've been pretty clear of late that I feel the Raptors have become severely undervalued in the wake of the Kyle Lowry injury. The numbers continue to back me up. Not only do they have the best net efficiency rating in the Eastern Conference, but their YTD point differential has now surpassed Cleveland. Thursday's 101-84 rout of Miami (on the road!) was really impressive, especially when you consider the Heat were 24-5 ATS their previous 29 games. Considering all that you've just read, I'd hope you'd join me in wondering how in the world Toronto would be a underdog, even so slight, to a team like Dallas. The Mavs did beat the Clippers here at home Thursday night, but had dropped four of six previous to that. I'm on the road team here. Thursday's win in Miami made it four straight for the Raptors. Three of those wins have been by double digits w/ the only exception coming against Chicago, who (for whatever reason) always seems to give them trouble. Another recent lopsided win for them came at the expense of tonight' opponent. North of the Border, they crushed Dallas 100-78 on 3.13, doing so as 4.5-pt home chalk. Shockingly, there has been to little to no adjustment by the oddsmakers for the rematch. Granted, they have to be careful about putting too much stock into just one result, but it's pretty clear to me who the better team is here. Note after initially falling behind the Heat by as many as 14 in the fourth quarter, the Raptors outscored them 31 the rest of the way. Given what Miami has done lately, that's pretty eye-opening. In three of the past four games, the Raptors have held their opponent to 91 pts or less. The game vs. Chicago went to overtime remember. There's a pretty massive discrepancy at the offensive end of the floor between these two teams. Toronto is 5th in the league in offensive efficiency and averages 107.1 points per game. Dallas is just 22nd in efficiency and is the ONLY team in the league that does not average 100 PPG. It was just eight days ago that the Mavericks lost by 42 in Philadelphia. I faded them earlier in the week as they lost by 25 here at home to Golden State. Though it seemingly worked against the Clippers two nights ago, Mavs HC Rick Carlisle is going with a younger and more unproven starting lineup right now. That's going to result in some inconsistency. The Raptors are the better team and have far more to play for here. 10* Toronto |
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03-25-17 | Xavier v. Gonzaga -8 | Top | 59-83 | Win | 100 | 27 h 19 m | Show |
8* Gonzaga (6:05 ET): Xavier has clearly represented a "buy low" situation thus far in the Tournament as they've won all three of their games as an underdog (I was on them all three times!). Most forget that the Musketeers were actually considered a Top 10 in the country early in the season. Injuries, the most notable being the season-ender for Edmond Sumner (knee) threatened to derail the campaign though. A six-game losing skid last month had their NCAA Tourney hopes on "life-support," but Chris Mack's team then responded by winning six of seven while going a perfect 7-0 ATS at the betting window. However, here is where the Cinderella story ends and I jump off the bandwagon. Top seed Gonzaga has survived some close calls thus far, but I believe is primed for their best showing of the Tournament tonight. Lay the points. I keep stressing teams' defensive efficiency for a reason. It is typically a great predictor of future success. Even an Elite 8 "longshot" like South Carolina ranks 3rd nationally at that end of the floor. Xavier, however, is 67th. That's easily the lowest ranking of the remaining eight teams. In fact, no one else is lower than 24th! Gonzaga is 1st, which is something that I bet most don't know. They just held West Virginia to an ugly 26.7% shooting for the game in the Sweet 16. That's really impressive even by the Zags' lofty standard. Incredibly, only one of their previous nine opponents has shot better than 41.5% from the floor (BYU, who handed them their one loss). Seven times during that stretch, Mark Few's team has held the opponent below 37% shooting. In the Tournament, they've held teams to 37% shooting on two-point attempts. This is really impressive! Xavier comes in having shot at least 50% from the floor in all three Tournament games, so clearly something will have to give here. I'm banking on it being the Musketeers' offense obviously. A key reason that I've played Xavier in all three games thus far is that I've felt all of their opponents were overrated in terms of seed. That ceases to be the case here. Another huge key has been Xavier's Tourney opponents shooting only 24% from three-point range despite a rather high volume of attempts. That seems unsustainable. Gonzaga has shot just 29% themselves from behind the arc, but don't let that fool you into thinking this is a great matchup for the underdog. Rather, I believe we'll see some regression to the mean on both sides of that equation. Look for the Zags to make their shots and advance to the school's first ever Final Four in convincing fashion. 8* Gonzaga |
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03-24-17 | Wisconsin v. Florida -2 | Top | 83-84 | Loss | -107 | 84 h 36 m | Show |
8* Florida (9:55 ET): The East region has been thrown into total upheaval with the early exits of the top two seeds, Villanova and Duke. Furthermore, Virginia was considered the "darkhorse" third option and they're gone too. To me, that leaves the team that eliminated the Hoos, Florida, as the new favorite. While all the talk will be about what Wisconsin did to 'Nova, Florida's massive beatdown of Virginia may have been the most impressive win of the entire Tournament to date. They absolutely bludgeoned UVA, 65-39, which I assure you is not a misprint. Yet, they're only a small fave for this Sweet 16 matchup and don't seem to be getting the majority of public support. I don't understand that all and will gladly lay the short number here. Wisconsin was probably underseeded, something that was quite unfortunate if you're Villanova. The Badgers did have a late season three-game skid including an outright loss in Madison (as 11.5-pt faves) to Iowa. But since the regular season finale, they've turned things around. Their only loss in the L6 games was in the Big 10 Tournament Final to Michigan. The final margin over Va Tech in Rd 1 may have been 10 pts, but that was their largest lead of what was a basically a two possession game the whole way. The Badgers also benefited there from a school record eight three-pointers by Bronson Koenig. Then came the upset of 'Nova. Yes, the Badgers led for a large percentage of that game, but they were also down 57-50 w/ just over five minutes remaining. They very likely will not be as fortunate to shoot as well here as they did vs. Nova (53.1%!) considering the Gators rank third nationally in defensive efficiency. I know Wisconsin "has experience," but they still turned the ball over too much and got into foul trouble the last game. There are a number of Sweet 16 teams that have been able to overcome key injuries. Count Florida among the list. They lost big man John Egbunu to a season-ending knee injury back in February. They proceeded to go just 3-3 SU their next six games, twice losing to Vanderbilt, but have had little problem in the first two rounds of this Tournament. I had them against East Tennessee State, which was a 15-point win. Then came the brutal beatdown of Virginia. The "impressiveness" of that victory cannot be understated. They held the Hoos below 30% shooting for the game, including 1 of 15 from three-point range. Will they be able to duplicate those numbers here? Unlikely. But if they even come remotely close, they'll advance w/ ease. Remember that Virginia is one of the best defensive teams in the entire country. Speedy guards Kasey Hill and Chris Chiozza broke down the vaunted Tony Bennett "Pack Line defense" like it was nothing. Even w/o Egbunu, the Gators have four players that can lead the team in scoring and both Devin Robinson and Justin Leon had double doubles (21 total rebounds) against UVA. 8* Florida |
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03-24-17 | UCLA v. Kentucky +1 | Top | 75-86 | Win | 102 | 83 h 17 m | Show |
10* Kentucky (9:35 ET): Though I didn't expect it to be by much, I have to say that I'm pretty shocked Kentucky isn't favored here. They are after all - Kentucky - and the higher seed. If the line holds, or even goes up for some reason, then it will be just the second time this season that the Wildcats close as the dog. The first was admittedly not a pleasant experience as they lost at Florida by 22. But the Gators may very well end up being a Final Four team. UCLA is a group that I tabbed as overrated long ago. Sure, the Bruins proved me wrong by covering against Cincinnati, but they actually trailed at the half in that game. Their struggle to put away Kent State in the first round also should be a red flag. Simply put, the Bruins 77th place ranking in defensive efficiency (lowest among 16 remaining teams) is bound to eventually catch up with them and I think Friday is the time and place. As was expected, UK got a scare in Round 2 from a severely underseeded Wichita State team. I took the points w/ the Shockers (and covered!), but that play wasn't due to a lack of respect for what Coach Cal's team is capable of doing. Rather, I respected WSU that much. UK might be the youngest team left in the field, but they now also boast the longest active win streak in the country at 13 games. They've been able to advance despite their best player Malik Monk not shooting all that well. Imagine if he turns it around. Unlike the matchup vs. Wichita State, UK has a significant edge on the defensive end here as they rank 8th in efficiency. This is also a revenge spot for a five-point loss in Lexington back in December. That day, UCLA was able to score 97 points (shot 53.0%) in an outright upset as 10.5-pt dogs. I do not see history repeating itself here and it sure seems as if there's been a massive overadjustment w/ the line. Kentucky has not lost a neutral site game all year (9-0 SU). As mentioned above, UCLA trailed Cincinnati at the break on Sunday night. It may not have been a significant deficit, but they certainly struggled against an athletic and long defense. Kentucky is both longer and more athletic than Cincinnati. Thus, I believe we're more likely to see something resembling the Bruins team we saw in the 1st Half vs. Cincy than the 2nd (when they scored 49). On the defensive end, there has been much discussion about an alleged "improvement" down the stretch by UCLA. I just don't see it. They gave up 80 pts to Kent State. Unlike the Bruins first two Tournament opponents, Kentucky has an offense capable of "keeping up." (they average 85.2 PPG). Look for the 2-seed to advance in this one. 10* Kentucky |
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03-24-17 | Suns +15.5 v. Celtics | Top | 120-130 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (7:35 ET): Boston is now just one-game back of seemingly slumping Cleveland and all the talk obviously now centers around whether or not they can pass the defending champs for the top spot in the East. I actually think Toronto is a better overall team than Boston, for the record. But with the weight of expectations comes larger pointspreads and here we find the Celtics as big a favorite as they've been in any game all season. In fact, this will be just the third time they've been asked to lay double digits this season. They are 0-2 ATS previously with non-covers against Brooklyn (season opener!) and Philadelphia (January 6th). I understand that bettors will hardly be flocking to the window to bet Phoenix here, but let's take advantage of that fact and grab what looks to be a severely inflated number. Last night saw the Suns suffer the indignity of getting crushed by Brooklyn. They were actually five-point underdogs (against the Nets!) in the embarrassing 128-96 defeat. Clearly, this marked a low-point in another lost season. Incredibly, the starting lineup that was trotted out last night was not only the youngest in NBA history (avg 21 yrs, 14 days), but the average age of the starters was actually younger than seven of the eight teams that played last night in the NCAA Tournament! Given we know the veterans on this team aren't very good, this is probably a good idea over the long-term. In the short-term, the results haven't been good. Phoenix is 0-6 SU and ATS its last six games with the last three all coming by double digits on the road. As bleak a picture as I may have just painted, it wasn't that long ago that the Suns had gone 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS over a six-game stretch. Sunday in Detroit saw them actually lead by double digits before completely falling apart down the stretch and losing by 15. This will be the third straight game getting double digits. However, even by their standard, it's a huge number. The only times they've gotten 16 or more from the oddsmakers this year came against the Rockets and Warriors. Boston might be a good team, but they're a notch or two below those teams. I can't possibly make a case for the Suns to win outright here, but I'll call for the overconfident Celtics to overlook this game and fail to cover the spread. 10* Phoenix |
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03-24-17 | Cavs v. Hornets +3 | Top | 112-105 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Cleveland is in trouble and LeBron James seems to know it. The defending World Champs have just been awful defensively this season as is evident by their 22nd place ranking in defensive efficiency. That would be the lowest ranking of any likely playoff team w/ the exception of Denver, who is a sub .500 team that is just hoping to be the 8-seed in the West. For the sake of comparison, last year's Cavs team ranked a respectable 10th in defensive efficiency. Speaking of the Nuggets, they just torched LeBron and company for 126 points Wednesday night. That dropped the team to 0-3 ATS on the current road trip. I know that James has essentially "owned" Charlotte throughout his brilliant career, but going West to East does Cleveland no favors here and the Hornets are a far better team than their WL record indicates. Take the points. Charlotte enters Friday 2.5 games back of Miami for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Maybe they won't make the playoffs, but I'm already tabbing them as an excellent bounce back candidate for next season. Consider that despite being seven games below .500 currently, they've actually outscored their opponents and posted a positive net efficiency rating. If nothing else, they've been terribly unlucky w/ an 0-9 SU record in games decided by three points or less and 0-6 SU record in overtime! That's in stark contrast to last season when they were 5-0 SU in OT games. However, we're starting to see signs of potential late season turnaround as they come into tonight riding a three-game SU and ATS win streak. They have a winning record at home this year. The narrative here will be James' comments after the Denver loss as he called his teammates out. He should have as the Cavs were just horrific defensively, allowing 73 first half points and 70 points in the paint overall. They forced only six turnovers against 35 Denver assists. Every opponent on this trip has shot at least 50% from the floor against them. They are giving up 110.1 PPG on the road where they've been outscored for the year. Charlotte comes in averaging a healthy number (105.6 PPG at home). I realize that the Hornets are just 1-9 SU vs. Cleveland since James "came home" (0-3 SU this year) and 2-19 SU as dogs overall this season. But I rate this as a pick em game and Charlotte has proven itself to be a totally different team w/ Cody Zeller in the lineup. 8* Charlotte |
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03-23-17 | Xavier +7.5 v. Arizona | Top | 73-71 | Win | 100 | 60 h 7 m | Show |
10* Xavier (10:05 ET): The Musketeers have treated me quite well so far in this Tournament. I've been on them in both games. First, they knocked off overrated Maryland 76-65 as a two-point dog. Then came one of the most impressive performances of the entire tournament as they whipped Florida State 91-66 as 7.5-pt dogs. That was their sixth consecutive cover as it's become pretty apparant this team was undervalued in the wake of the Edmond Sumner injury. But like Oregon w/o Chris Boucher, they are making "due." Sure, there was a six-game losing streak towards the end of the regular season, but they've clearly righted the ship. Arizona is a team that's also been covering of late (5-0-1 ATS L6), but I feel they're drastically overrated. Take the points. In the interest of full disclosure, I went against Arizona against St. Mary's. Though that play was ultimately unsuccessful (Wildcats won 69-60 as five-point chalk), note that they were NOT "in the money" most of the way. In fact, they got behind big early, trailing 24-14. But credit them for catching fire in the second half where they shot 59.1% from the floor. But such a come from behind effort cannot be counted on regularly. Granted, 'Zona is 5-2 SU in games decided by five points or less this season. But, defensively, I believe them to be the INFERIOR foe in this matchup. Yes, they held St. Mary's to only 60 points, but that has as much to do w/ the Gaels' slow tempo as anything else. Prior to that win, the Wildcats had allowd 75+ pts in five of six games. Meanwhile, Xavier has held five of its last six opponents to 65 pts or less. What the Musketeers did to Florida State last Saturday was really impressive. The Seminoles were the tallest team in the field, yet Xavier actually outrebounded them and was able to shoot 55% from the field. There was also a massive discrepancy from behind the arc as Xavier was 11 of 17 while FSU was only 4 of 21. That is unlikely to be repeated, but I don't think it has to be for the Musketeers to pull off yet another upset. Their zone really confused the 'Noles and I'd be shocked if we didn't see it again here. Also, Xavier did a great job at taking care of the basketball last game, turning it over just nine times. I don't have Arizona rated that much higher than FSU, so this line looks to be a real "steal." Arizona has shot 53.5% from the field its last five games. That's due to regress, right? 10* Xavier |
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03-23-17 | Knicks +11.5 v. Blazers | Top | 95-110 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
10* New York (10:05 ET): The miserable Knicks may have come up just short again last night, but for a second straight time they at least covered the spread. It was a 108-101 loss at Utah, a good team that allows the fewest number of points per game in the league. Predictably, the Knicks are again catching a ton of points tonight in Portland. I get that this is the second game of a back to back (not to mention the 3rd road game in 4 nights), but are the Blazers really deserving of as much respect as the Jazz? I don't think so. Not w/ their 24th place ranking in defensive efficiency or the fact they just lost at home to Milwaukee. Overall, Portland has posted the second worst ATS record in the league, ahead of only Orlando. As lousy as the Knicks have been, they are actually top 10 at the betting window, largely due to situations such as this where they are getting so many points. The worst thing of all for Portland on Tuesday night is they wasted what was actually a rare strong effort on the defensive end. They held Milwaukee to just 93 points, yet still lost outright at home. They shot just 42.2% from the floor and had only 35 points by halftime. They trailed by as many as 15 in the second half and were a terrible 4 of 21 from three-point range. The offensive number are obviously likely to improve tonight, but at the same time, I expect the defensive numbers to regress. This team allows 109.7 PPG, which makes it very difficult to cover as a favorite of this magnitude. In fact, Portland has been outscored over the course of the season. They are only 17-15 SU at home. It's become apparent that the Knicks are deliberately tanking w/ an eye towards next year. They've lost six of seven w/ two losses to Brooklyn during that time. But they were competitive against the Clippers Monday night (lost by 9) and then again in Utah last night (actually led going into the fourth quarter). I project them topping 100 pts for a fourth straight game, which makes covering the spread seem very likely. Furthermore, they've already beaten Portland this season, doing so back in November at MSG. Off three or more consecutive SU losses, the Knicks are 7-2 ATS this season. They're a bad team playing young players, but at least that means we'll be getting a decent effort and this is just way too many points for Portland to be laying against any team. 10* New York |