Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-21-19 | Nationals v. Mets UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Washington-NY Mets You'd be hard-pressed to find two more disappointing teams in either league than the Mets and Nationals. By rule, someone had to win yesterday's game and it was the Mets doing so by a score of 5-3. Of course, one team will prevail again today, but the better bet is on the Under as neither team is doing much hitting lately, the Mets especially. They had been shutout in consecutive games (by Miami!) coming into this series and are hitting .206 over the last week. Even worse is that in those two shutout losses to Miami, they managed only three hits. They'd lost five in a row overall before yesterday. Washington has scored more than five runs only twice in its last 10 games. Erick Fedde is starting here only because of an injury to Anibal Sanchez. He did allow four runs (in relief of Sanchez) last week to the Mets, but should be better here. Again he'll face Zack Wheeler, who didn't exactly pitch well last Thursday either. But before that he'd tossed five quality starts in six tries. Play UNDER Washington-NY Mets AAA |
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05-20-19 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 7 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Arizona-San Diego Arizona is a team you probably don't hear about all that often, but they have managed to stay above .500 and are still in a good spot, despite suffering back to back losses. We had the Under in Sunday's game vs. the Giants, which was a 3-2 loss that went 10 innings. So you may be surprised to see that we're going Over in Monday's matchup with San Diego, which - on paper - would seem more conducive to an Under play. But the number is too low here. Padres starter Chris Paddack has been very good in his rookie year, guiding the team to a 6-2 record when he's on the mound and doing so with a 1.99 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. But he's off his worst start to date as he allowed six runs in just 4 2/3 innings to the Dodgers. San Diego is off three straight losses to Pittsburgh here at home and all three games went Over. The Diamondbacks go with Luke Weaver for this series opener and like Paddack he's pitched well. It was a 2-1 game when Weaver and Paddack met back in April, but the total there was 8.0. Arizona averages 5.6 runs/game on the road and the Over has cashed in 11 of their last 15 series openers. Plus, it is 12-4-1 their last 17 division games. Play OVER Arizona-San Diego AAA |
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05-20-19 | Mariners v. Rangers OVER 11 | Top | 9-10 | Win | 102 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play on OVER Seattle-Texas A Seattle-Texas matchup should almost be an automatic "green light" to take the Over in our opinion. The Mariners have given up the most runs in all of baseball (292), but at the same time they have also scored the second most (258). Therefore, it's no shocker that they are the top Over team in the sport with a 34-12-3 O/U record. True to form, they are off a four-game series (against Minnesota) where they allowed 40 runs. Texas is off a series with St. Louis where every game went Under, but they are still giving up a high number of runs per game for the year (5.5). At the same time, they too can bring the offense as they average 5.8 runs/game, which is #1 in all of MLB! The only previous series between these teams in 2019 brought three Overs in four games (one push). The three games that went Over all saw the winning side score no fewer than 14 runs. Seattle starter Mike Leake did win his last time out, an impressive performance which saw him limit the A's to just three runs (only one earned), but he entered that start with an 0-5 TSR his last five starts. The Rangers hand the baseball to Mike Minor, who has a 4.21 ERA in nine career appearances vs. the Mariners. Play OVER Seattle-Texas AAA |
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05-19-19 | Cubs v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Cubs-Nationals We were on the Nationals last night as the thinking was Jon Lester's recent numbers weren't all they were cracked up to be. Sure enough, they got to Lester five times by the fifth inning and that was enough. Cubs manager Joe Maddon protested the loss due to the delivery of Washington reliever Sean Dolittle, which he complained about twice. Perhaps it was just seeing the Nationals bullpen pitch well that had Maddon raising his eyebrows. This group has been a disaster with a 6.77 ERA so far. Tonight's starter Jeremy Hellickson isn't much better with a 6.28 ERA his last three starts and a 7.90 ERA at home for the year. The Cubs would then seem to have a rather substantial edge in this matchup with Kyle Hendricks pitching as he has allowed just one earned run his last three starts where he's pitched 25 innings. But Hendricks is also a lot worse on the road with a 5.91 ERA. The Over is 14-7-1 in Cubs road games so far. Play OVER Cubs-Nationals AAA |
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05-19-19 | Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 220.5 | Top | 112-118 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Milwaukee-Toronto Game #1 was a bad shooting night all-around as both teams finished below 40% from the field. The Bucks came from behind to win that one, 108-100, but then it was a wire to wire victory in Game #2 with them clobbering the Raptors 125-103. That was the most points given up by Toronto in any game in the playoffs and just the third allowing more than 108 points. All three have been on the road (twice at Philadelphia), so at least expect a lot better defense from the Raptors tonight in Game #3. They are still holding teams under 100 PPG overall in the playoffs. They've allowed just one 100+ point game at home the entire playoffs and that was the first game. At the same time, they haven't had a game where they shot 50% themselves since Game 1 vs. Philly. Milwaukee is a great defensive team as it led the league in efficiency in the regular season. The last five games have seen them limit opponents to a 38.1 FG%. In 10 playoff games, the Bucks have allowed more than 103 points only twice! Play UNDER Milwaukee-Toronto AAA |
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05-19-19 | Giants v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER San Francisco-Arizona These teams went Over on Saturday with the Giants winning 8-5. That was a bit of a rare occurrence as they previous five meetings (dating back to last August) had all gone Under. Three of those five games, including Friday's opener, were shutouts. San Francisco is not a team that's going to be able to consistently put runs on the board this year, so look for them to struggle at the plate today as they get set to face Robbie Ray, who has a 1.10 ERA his last three starts. Ray has allowed more than three earned runs in just one start all year, but even more key is that he's had the Giants number with a 3-0 record and 2.45 ERA in seven starts against them dating back to 2017. Right now, he looks like the pitcher who had a career year two seasons ago. SF's Pomeranz has had his struggles and will be coming off the DL here. But the Under is 5-2 his last seven starts. Play UNDER San Francisco-Arizona AAA |
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05-19-19 | Blues v. Sharks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 29 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER St. Louis-San Jose Boston is already onto the Stanley Cup Final, but we're guaranteed at least six games in the Western Conference Final where things are now squared back at two games apiece. The Blues shook off a brutal Game 3 finish to win Game 4, 2-1, and our read here is that another low-scoring affair is in the cards. We're now heading back to San Jose where the Sharks seem to have an advantage. The Over cashed in the first two games of the series here and the first three games overall. But the Under is 25-11-2 in the Blues last 39 games after scoring two goals or less their previous time out. They have Jordan Binnington in net. This rookie was a difference maker again in Game 4 by stopping 29 of 30 shots. At the same time, St. Louis had only 22 shots on goal themselves. Shot totals have not been particularly high in this series. We don't think they will be for this crucial Game #5 where both goalies figure to be at their best. Play UNDER St. Louis-San Jose AAA |
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05-18-19 | Warriors v. Blazers OVER 221 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Golden State-Portland Portland did not shoot well in Game #1 (36.1 FG%). As a result, they lost 116-94. We called for them to shoot much better in Game #2 and they did. Ultimately though, it did not matter as they dropped a 'heartbreaker' 114-111. Unlike Gm 1, that was an Over and that's how we're playing the Game #3 total. Portland is obviously a more prolific offensive team at home where tha average 118.1 points/game. The Warriors, even without Kevin Durant, have little issue scoring. They've gone for an average of 115 points in the first two games while shooting better than 50% overall. Steph Curry, as you might expect a former MVP would, has picked up the scoring slack in Durant's absence. Without question, the Blazers will be desperate in Game 3. But that doesn't mean the Warriors won't do their fair share of scoring as well. The Over is 12-4 when Portland is off a loss. It is also 13-3 the last 16 times they have hosted the Warriors. Play OVER Golden State-Portland AAA |
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05-18-19 | Cardinals v. Rangers OVER 12 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER St. Louis-Texas We're going Over the high total in this Interleague matchup. There has been a pitching change here with the Rangers now going with Jurado, who will be making his first start of the year, although it probably won't be for long. Jurado is being used as more of an "opener" and hasn't pitched more than 2 1/3 innings in any appearance this season. Though it did its job last night, it's not like the Rangers bullpen is very good. The offense scored all seven of its runs in the second inning and has now put 29 on the board the last three games. They've only given up five in the same stretch, but the three games before that saw them allow 37. We look for the St. Louis offense to break out of its mini-slump here as the Rangers are still giving up 5.5 runs/game, which is among the highest numbers in the sport. The Cardinals get to use a DH this weekend, so that helps. Problem is that Texas averages 6.6 runs/game at home, which is the highest average in either league. So Dakota Hudson is probably going to struggle here for St. Louis. He already has a 6.43 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in three road starts and other than Coors Field, this will probably be the most hitter-friendly park he pitches in all season. Play OVER St. Louis-Texas AAA |
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05-17-19 | Raptors v. Bucks OVER 215.5 | Top | 103-125 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Toronto-Milwaukee We had the Under in Game #1, but go the other way (Over) for Game #2. Neither team shot well (both below 40% FG) Wednesday night. That's not likely to happen again. While Game #1 may have been just the fourth time in the playoffs that Toronto allowed more than 100 points, they may need to get used to doing so in this series seeing as Milwaukee led the league in scoring this season (118.1 points/game) and was #1 in offensive efficiency here. The Bucks aren't likely to shoot 39.8% from the field again, nor are they likely to miss three quarters of their three-point attempts. It was a similar poor shooting effort in Game 1 of the Boston series (they lost that one) and then they came back to score 123 points in the next game. Toronto is no slouch in the offensive department either. They were only 19 of 50 on two-point attempts in Game #1. They'll better that for sure tonight. The Over is 4-1 in Milwaukee's last five games on one day's rest, all of those coming in the playoffs. Play OVER Toronto-Milwaukee AAA |
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05-16-19 | Cardinals v. Braves OVER 10 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 102 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER St. Louis-Atlanta The Cardinals and Braves have exchanged a couple of commanding wins here, albeit in much different fashion. St. Louis won the first game 14-3 while Atlanta won last night 4-0. For the Cardinals, this is a continuation of a "feast or famine" approach at the plate. Twice in the last five days they've scored 14 or more runs in a game and they have scored six or more runs in four of their last nine. But the other five have seen them score just three runs total as they've been held to 1 or 0 every time. We expect more "feast" tonight as they are set to face Julio Teheran, whose had himself an up and down to start the year. The Over is 9-3-2 the last 14 times St. Louis scored 2 runs or less in its last game. They are still third in the National League in runs scored. The Over is 4-0 the last four times Teheran has started on at least five days rest. He hasn't pitched since last Friday. Adam Wainwright will start tonight for the Cardinals. The Over is 16-7-1 when he starts off a team loss. Wainright has been a lot worse on the road so far where his ERA is 5.39. Play OVER St. Louis-Atlanta AAA |
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05-16-19 | Brewers v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 11-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Milwaukee-Philadelphia Virtually all the trends say that we're heading for another Under between the Brewers and Phillies Thursday, which would be the third straight in the series. (Monday's game, a 7-4 Philly win, did go Over). The Under is 5-1 in the Brewers last six games as well as 6-1 in the Phillies last seven. Then you have the fact that today's starter for Milwaukee, Zach Davies, is 8-0 Under this year. Philadelphia, looking to earn itself a split of this four-game series, goes with Zach Eflin. He's pitched even better than this year than his counterpart with the 8-0 Under record, including a complete game effort in his last start. Despite all this, we look for this game to still go Over. We played the Over last night and it was looking good early with Milwaukee up 4-1 after just three innings. But things really settled down after that and it ended up a 5-2 final. It's not like both offenses aren't capable of a big day at the plate. Milwaukee has averaged 5.0 runs/game in the series. Philadelphia scored 6 or more in three straight games before the last two days. Let's try this again. Play OVER Milwaukee-Philadelphia AAA |
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05-15-19 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 217.5 | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Toronto-Milwaukee Neither Eastern Conference Finalist had a very hard time in Round 1 with the Raptors advancing after only five games against the Magic and the Bucks sweeping the Pistons. Toronto needed seven games to get rid of Philadelphia in Round 2, however, with the series coming down to a heart-stopping shot by Kawhi Leonard. It was the first playoff buzzer beater in a winner take all game since the infamous Michael Jordan shot over Craig Ehlo 30 years ago. While the Raptors were playing until Sunday, Milwaukee has enjoyed a full week off since eliminating the Celtics in five games. They had a similar amount of time off between the first two series and did lose Game 1 to Boston, scoring only 90 points in the process. That's the Bucks only loss of the playoffs so far. Toronto is giving up just 96 points/game in the playoffs and has allowed more than 100 in just two of the last 11 games. Not to be outdone, Milwaukee led the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season and has allowed no more than 104 points in seven of their nine playoff games. Play UNDER Toronto-Milwaukee AAA |
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05-15-19 | Brewers v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Milwaukee-Philadelphia This is a four-game series the Phillies and Brewers are involved in and so far each team has notched a win. Milwaukee got their yesterday, 6-1, snapping a three-game losing streak in the process. But prior to that three-game slide, they'd won seven in a row. Philadelphia had won 5 of 6 before tasting defeat on Tuesday and in those five wins had scored 35 runs. They've been one of the top offensive teams in the National League, especially at home where they are scoring 5.6 runs per game. It may look like a bit of a tough assignment tonight vs. Gio Gonzalez, but the numbers from Gonzalez are a byproduct of a small sample size with two of the three starts coming against the Mets. The Over is 10-3 the Phillies last 13 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Jake Arrieta goes here for Philly and he allowed three home runs in his last start. He'd allowed just five in his previous seven starts combined and the three homers given up came in an American League park. But Arrieta definitely seems to be "slowing down" lately with a 6.19 ERA his previous three starts. Play OVER Milwaukee-Philadelphia AAA |
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05-14-19 | Blazers v. Warriors OVER 219 | Top | 94-116 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Portland-Golden State Golden State is making its fifth straight Western Conference Finals appearance while Portland is here for the first time since 2000. The experience edge should ultimately prevail here in Game 1 and the series. But we like the Over too as both of these teams can score. The big story coming into this series is the absence of Kevin Durant, but the Warriors did just fine without him in closing out Houston Friday night. They scored 118 points with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson combining for 60 points as they were 11 of 24 from three-point range. With Durant out, we expect Curry to more than pick up the slack. Of course, Portland's starting backcourt can score too with Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum taking turns leading their team. It was McCollum's 37 points in Game 7 vs. Denver that was the difference as the Blazers overcame a 17-point first half deficit. Lillard had scored 32 points in Game 6 of that last series and he's put together some big games vs. the Warriors this year, averaging 28.3 points per contest (4 games). The Over is 19-7 the last 26 times these teams have played. Play OVER Portland-Golden State AAA |
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05-14-19 | Astros v. Tigers OVER 10.5 | Top | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Houston-Detroit As you might expect, the Astros rolled to an 8-1 victory last night in the series opener here in Detroit. The Tigers appeared overmatched from the jump as starter Boyd gave up three early runs and Houston never trailed en route to its sixth straight victory. Boyd is Detroit's best starter, so you have to figure the Astros are going to continue to score runs here at Comerica Park, today in particular as they are set to face Ryan Carpenter, whose first start did not go well at all. Against the Angels last Thursday, Carpenter conceded six runs and lasted just five innings. Houston has scored 34 runs in just the last three games and scored 10 or more four times in its last 10 games overall. But we should also see the Tigers put more runs on the board Tuesday. Houston's Wade Miley has pitched well this season, but strikeout numbers are low and four previous starts against Detroit have brought zero wins and an ERA of 6.63. He also has an ERA above 4.00 on the road this year. Play OVER Houston-Detroit AAA |
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05-13-19 | Angels v. Twins OVER 9 | Top | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER LA Angels-Minnesota Minnesota is the biggest surprise in baseball right now as they have the best overall record at 25-14. They did lose to Detroit on Sunday, but have to be feeling good about their chances tonight as they'll send out Jose Berrios. Berrios has been tremendous so far with 51 strikeouts against only eight walks in 53 1/3 innings. The Twins have won seven of the eight times he's started and Berrios has posted a 2.53 ERA and 0.919. But two previous starts against the Angels have resulted in a 5.56 ERA, so do not be surprised if he gives up more runs here than per usual. Tyler Skaggs goes for the Angels and he has a 6.38 ERA and 1.581 WHIP on the road this season. The Angels let me down big time on Sunday, but are still scoring 5.9 runs/game over the last week. There have also been three times in the last eight games they've allowed 10 or more runs. The Twins are scoring 5.3 runs per game this year, so this total looks low. The Over is 8-1 the Angels last nine tries off a loss and 7-1 the last eight times the Twins have taken on a left-handed starter. Play OVER Angels-Twins AAA |
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05-12-19 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 209 | Top | 90-92 | Win | 100 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Philadelphia-Toronto This series has seen mostly low-scoring games, so it stands to reason that Game #7 will follow suit. Toronto has played exceptional defense throughout the playoffs. They are allowing only 96.5 points/game on 41.1% shooting. Philadelphia happens to have blown by those averages twice in the last four games, but both instances came when they were the home team. No visitor has been able to score more than 104 points in Toronto this postseason. But the Raptors have still dropped two home playoff games, including one in this series (Game #2) where they scored only 89 points. They've topped 101 points only one time in the last five games. There have been only three playoff games where they have scored more than 108 points. Not only is the Under 5-0 the last five times Philly has been off an ATS win, but the Under is 4-0 the last four times Toronto has been off an ATS loss. Play UNDER Philadelphia-Toronto AAA |
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05-12-19 | Reds v. Giants UNDER 7 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Cincinnati-San Francisco In the opener of this three-game series, we took the Over. The Reds definitely did their job in the game, scoring seven times, but the Giants were shutout and thus we missed the Over by a half run. Saturday's game did go Over, with the Reds winning again, this time a closer game. It was 5-4 with the Reds scoring three times in the first and then getting a run in both the 5th and 7th innings to tie and win the game. The Over has hit in five of six meetings this season and it was 4-0 in last weekend's series in Cincy. We think this game goes differently though as SF has Bumgarner on the hill. He's off two straight quality starts where he allowed a total of four runs in 12 innings. Even more impressive is the fact the last one came at Coors Field. His last home start saw him allow just one run to the Dodgers. He did not pitch in the series against the Reds. Cincy goes with Mahle, who has both yet to win and yet to see a start go Over. The Under is 6-0-1 in Mahle starts with the Reds being shutout in three of them! In the seven starts, Cincinnati has scored just nine runs total and four of the games have seen three or fewer runs scored total! Mahle has allowed just 1 ER in each of his last two starts. Play UNDER Cincinnati-San Francisco AAA |
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05-12-19 | Hurricanes v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -125 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Carolina-Boston Carolina had a 2-1 lead going into the third period of Game 1, but that quickly went away when Boston scored on consecutive power play opportunities, those goals coming less than 30 seconds apart. That 3-2 advantage held until just over two minutes were left in regulation when the Bruins scored on an empty net. They added another for good measure seconds later. So from a total bettor's perspective, the fact the game "easily" went Over is highly misleading. Boston was tied for third in goals allowed in the regular season. So we should see Carolina limited again here offensively. But with Petr Mrazek back in net, we likely won't be seeing another four goal period from the Bruins either. Game 1 was the most goals the Hurricanes allowed in a game since losing 6-0 to Washington back in the first round. In between those two losses, they won six straight times and gave up only 10 goals. In the four-game sweep of the Islanders, they allowed only five goals! The Under is 4-0 the previous four times the Bruins have been off a game where they scored five or more goals. Play UNDER Carolina-Boston AAA |
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05-11-19 | Blues v. Sharks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -123 | 29 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play UNDER St. Louis-San Jose Both the Blues and Sharks needed seven games to get here and we were on both in the respective Game 7 victories. St. Louis outlasted Dallas, winning a thrilling double OT game at home on Tuesday. The following night was San Jose's turn as they also won by one goal, beating Colorado 3-2, a game which swung on a disallowed goal. The key to St. Louis getting this far has been goaltender Jordan Binnington. He led the league in goals against average (1.89) in the regular season and allowed just two goals in the final two games of the last series. San Jose has scored more than three goals only one time in its last six games. The last six times these teams have played, the game has stayed Under. Three were shutouts, two of those taking place this year. So another low-scoring game should be in the cards tonight, especially with both teams having done such a great job recently at limiting the number of shots their goaltenders have seen. Play UNDER St. Louis-San Jose AAA |
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05-11-19 | Mariners v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 102 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Seattle-Boston We had the Over in this matchup last night and the Red Sox did all the "heavy lifting" in a 14-1 beatdown of the Mariners. That result is fairly indicative of the way things have been going lately for each team. After digging itself an early season hold, Boston is 14-6 its L20 games and now over .500 for the first time all year. Seattle started 13-2, but is just 7-19 since and trending in a direction that will have them below .500 in no time. Part of the Mariners problem is that they are giving up way too many runs. Yesterday was a "Exhibit A" in that regard. It was the 4th time they've given up double digits runs (10 or more) to the opponent in the last 12 games. At the same time though, they still lead the league in runs scored and home runs. Yesterday was a bad day at the plate, but the M's had scored 10 in two of their five games before last night. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are averaging 5.1 runs/game at Fenway Park. The should do well today against Felix Hernandez, whose best days are long behind him. Hernandez recently allowed 7 runs in a bad night at Yankee Stadium. Things aren't likely to go any better here. The Over is 3-1 in Hernandez's last four starts and he has a 6.16 ERA on the road. Boston's Rick Porcello has pitched better of late, but he still has a 5.11 ERA and 1.567 WHIP on the year and the Over is 6-1 in his 7 starts. Play OVER Seattle-Boston AAA |
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05-10-19 | Reds v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Cincinnati-San Francisco This is a rematch of a series played last weekend in Cincinnati. The Reds and Giants split four games, but all of them went Over. Tonight's series opener in San Francisco should also go Over the number. The Giants offense has slowly woken up. After those four straight Overs last weekend in Cincinnati, they put 25 more runs on the board in two games at Colorado. Unfortunately for them, they also allowed 12 yesterday as what would have been a remarkable comeback at Coors Field (trailed 7-0 after two innings) ultimately fell short. That was the 5th time in the past 10 games the Giants pitching staff allowed 10 or more runs. Cincinnati's offense really hasn't been producing that much this year, but they did score 37 times in four games vs. the Giants last weekend. They should score plenty more here against Dereck Rodriguez, who they homered off four times last Saturday while scoring eight runs in just five innings. Rodriguez has allowed a total of 14 runs in his last two starts. The Reds go with Castillo, who allowed four runs in his start vs. SF last weekend. Play OVER Cincinnati-San Francisco AAA |
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05-10-19 | Mariners v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 1-14 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Seattle-Boston The Red Sox used yesterday to visit the White House, but are now back to playing baseball as they'll host the Mariners for a three-game series. Things have started come full circle for Boston, who opened the 2019 season by losing three of four up in Seattle. They were 6-13 on April 17th, but have since gone 13-6 to square themselves up at .500. The Mariners are going the opposite direction. They started 13-2, but have cooled off considerably, losing 18 of the last 25 games. One thing they haven't stopped doing though is having their games go Over the total. No team has produced more Overs this year than has Seattle (27-10-3 O/U record). They've hit the most home runs and scored the most runs in all of baseball. The Red Sox are also starting to produce, at least they are at Fenway Park, where they average 5.1 runs per game. Friday starter Rodriguez has seen six of his seven starts go Over, including four straight. Even though he has a 5-2 TSR, his ERA is 5.40 and his WHIP is 1.50, not impressive numbers. Seattle starter Swanson has seen his last three starts all go Over as he has an ERA & WHIP of 5.74 and 1.40 in them. Play OVER Seattle-Boston AAA |
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05-09-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers OVER 215.5 | Top | 108-119 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OVER Denver-Portland Look for a big time rebound from the Blazers at home in Game #6 Thursday night, especially offensively. They were blown out in Game #5, losing 124-98. It was easily their worst game in the playoffs and it put them behind the proverbial 8-ball as they'll now have to win the next two games to make the Western Conference Finals. In Game #5, Portland only shot 36.7%, easily their worst field goal percentage of any playoff game yet. Something we've harped on previously is that Denver is way worse defensively on the road. They allow less than 103 points/game at the Pepsi Center. On the road, that number jumps to 110.8. The Over is now 7-0 in Denver's last seven road games. For whatever reason, oddsmakers have decided to stick to their guns with fairly low totals in this series. That doesn't make much sense though seeing as the Over has hit eight of the nine times these teams have met this season with many of those games going Over by double digit margins. The Over is 19-7-1 in Portland's last 28 home games too. Play OVER Denver-Portland AAA |
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05-09-19 | Nationals v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Washington-LA Dodgers The Dodgers haven't been giving up many runs at home all season and they shouldn't give up very many today as they open a weekend series against the slumping Nationals. Washington has lost six straight series and four games in a row and the biggest reason for that is they just aren't scoring. Three Opening Day starters are on the disabled list and they have scored more than three runs in just 2 of their previous 13 games. Dodger Stadium hasn't been too kind to opposing teams so far as they are hitting just .223 here. Rich Hill should take care of this scuffling Washington lineup tonight. He has an 11-0 TSR his last 11 starts vs. NL East teams. If the Nats are too have any chance of winning this game, it will be because of Patrick Corbin, who had a 0.77 ERA in four starts vs. LA last year when he was a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Corbin posted a 2.49 ERA in his first five starts this year and has had only one non-quality outing all year. Play UNDER Washington-LA Dodgers AAA |
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05-09-19 | Reds v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Cincinnati-Oakland The Reds and A's went 13 yesterday with the home team finally winning 5-4. That's a final score that we'd "accept" again this afternoon given the total posted by the oddsmakers. Cincinnati has been one of the lower scoring teams in all of MLB, but maybe a visit to an American League park might do the trick? Now they get to use a designated hitter. They've already been trending in an "Over direction" recently with five of the last six games going that way. Oakland has held them to just two runs in the two games so far (won both) as Michael Fiers tossed a no-hitter Tuesday. They will send Chris Bassitt to the mound for the finale. But while Bassitt has a 2.12 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in three starts, we don't expect him to pitch all that well today. Same for Reds starter Roark, who has a 1.53 WHIP on the year (seven starts). It's still a limited sample size with Bassitt to draw any real conclusions. The Over is 5-2 in Cincy's last seven Interleague road games, which supports our theory concerning the DH. The Over is also 24-9-1 the L34 times the A's scored at least five runs the previous game. Play OVER Cincinnati-Oakland AAA |
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05-08-19 | Rockets v. Warriors UNDER 219.5 | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Houston-Golden State We had the Under in the last game, which Houston won. The Under did too, albeit barely. Every game in this series has been close, including that last one, which was a 112-108 final. All four games in this series have been decided by six points or less. Game 5 has all the makings of another tight affair, but again our call is on the Under. The Under is now 10-3 the past 13 meetings and 20-8-1 in the Rockets last 29 games overall. The Under is also 9-3 the last 12 times the Warriors have been off a straight up loss. In the playoffs, Houston has really stepped up its defense, giving up an average of just 104.1 points/game. Steph Curry somewhat rediscovered his shooting touch in Game 4, however, he still missed 10 of 14 three-pointers and is below 30% from behind the arc in the series. Speaking of shooting, Houston isn't as likely to shoot the ball as well on the road as they did at home. They averaged just 104.5 points/game in the first two games here in Oakland. We're 4-0 in this series, cashing side & total in Game #1, Houston in Game #3 and the Under in Game #4. Play UNDER Houston-Golden State AAA |
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05-08-19 | Twins v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Minnesota-Toronto Minnesota delivered another shutout against Toronto on Tuesday, winning 3-0, but tonight's game should feature a lot more runs. The two starters here simply are not as good as who pitched yesterday. The surging Twins got a four-hitter from their top starter Jose Berrios, but Kyle Gibson is probably the 4th best option in their rotation at this point. He has a 4.68 ERA overall and should feel very lucky to have a 3-1 team start record on the road seeing his ERA and WHIP are 5.31 and 1.62 respectively. As for the Blue Jays, they'll be sending out Trent Thornton, who is not only still winless after seven starts but he also has a 5.00 ERA at home. The Twins have been doing a lot of scoring on the road so far, averaging 5.8 runs/game. That's #4 in all of baseball. Meanwhile, Toronto has yet to score in this series, losing the first two games by scores of 8-0 and 3-0. That should change here, even though the poor offensive numbers might suggest otherwise. The Over is 5-1 in Gibson's last six starts against the Blue Jays. Play OVER Minnesota-Toronto AAA |
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05-07-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets OVER 213 | Top | 98-124 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Portland-Denver Total is still too low for this series, which has seen three of the four games go Over. It's not just that though. All four regular season meetings between Denver and Portland also went Over. Game 4 saw 228 total points scored. All three Overs in the series have cashed by double digits. Yes, one of them was a 4 OT game. But considering we are dealing with two teams that have averaged more than 110 points/game over the course of the season, the point still stands that this number is too low. The Over is 13-6-1 in Portland's last 20 games following a straight up loss. The Over is 6-2 in Denver's last eight games off an ATS win. Even though Damian Lillard has been off since going for 39 points in Game 1, two of the three games have still gone Over. There are enough contributors on both teams that each will again find a way to get points. Play OVER Portland-Denver AAA |
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05-07-19 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 211.5 | Top | 89-125 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Philadelphia-Toronto Every game in this series has gone Under. In fact, for both teams, the Under trend extends back into the first round. Philadelphia's last six games have all gone Under. This series has seen them get held Under 100 points three times and now they aren't at home anymore. In Games #1 and #2 in Toronto, they were held to 95 and 94 points. Toronto has allowed no more than 96 points in seven of its last eight games, which is a remarkable achievement in the modern NBA. Going back to the final game of the regular season, the Under has hit in 9 of the Raptors previous 10 games. Despite the Under continuously hitting, often by comfortable margins, the oddsmakers still haven't dropped the total by nearly enough for Game 5. Expect Toronto to continue to play outstanding defense as there have been only two playoff games where the opposing team shot better than 40.2% from the field. One of those was the 76ers in Game 3, but that was in Philly. On the road, their points/game average drops by almost seven full points. Play UNDER Philadelphia-Toronto AAA |
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05-07-19 | Nationals v. Brewers UNDER 8 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Washington-Milwaukee Playing the Under here was a rare loss for us on Monday, but coming back with it is the right call. There has been a pitching change for Milwaukee. They will be going the "opener" route as originally scheduled starter Freddy Peralta has been terrible in the first inning (12.81 ERA). Peralta will pitch eventually in this game and we like the move by Brewers skipper Craig Counsell. Washington will go with Stephen Straburg and there's no reason to expect we won't be getting a strong outing from him. In his last three starts, Strasburg has a 1.25 ERA and 0.78 WHIP with 29 strikeouts. He's gone at least 6 2/3 innings in all three and never allowed more than two earned runs. Last night's game was a 5-3 Milwaukee win, just sneaking Over the total of 7.5. Be ready for an Under tonight though as we "get it back." The Brewers have given up three runs or less in six of their last eight games and every game in their last series went Under. The Nationals have gone Under in 5 of their last 7. Play UNDER Washington-Milwaukee AAA |
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05-07-19 | Angels v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER LA Angels-Detroit Unlike the other two games in this package, this is a series opener. The Angels and Tigers had Monday off. For the Angels, the day off was needed as they returned to the United States after a somewhat disastrous two game trip down to Mexico where they gave up 26 runs to the Astros. Before that, they'd won five in a row. Detroit managed to win its last game, in walkoff fashion, beating Kansas City 5-2, but that was after allowing 15 runs in a loss on Saturday. We expect lots of runs to be scored in this game as well, even if the distribution ends up being a little more even. Griffin Canning will be making only his second start for Los Angeles. The first was okay, but he lasted just 4 1/3 innings and still gave up three runs. Daniel Norris goes for the Tigers and he's lasted only five innings in each of his three turns. The respective workloads of the two starters lead us to believe we'll be seeing plenty of the bullpens here and that's a good thing for an Over bet seeing as Angels relievers have a 6.07 ERA/1.67 WHIP on the road while Tigers relievers have a 5.40 ERA/1.53 WHIP overall. Play OVER LA Angels-Detroit AAA |
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05-07-19 | Mariners v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Seattle-Yankees Seattle started the year like a house of fire, winning 13 of their first 15 games and putting up some incredible offensive numbers in the process. They hit at least one home run in 25 straight games, which is a new MLB record to start a season. Things have since screeched to a grinding halt at the plate, but that doesn't mean the Mariners aren't still an "Over team." The Over is 26-8-3 in their 37 games played this year as they are now giving up runs in bunches. The Yankees scored 7 on them yesterday. There was a point last week when they allowed 11 or more runs three times in a four-game stretch. One of those was started by Marco Gonzales, who lasted only 1 2/3 innings. This will be Gonzales first time starting since then. He'll be opposed by Masahiro Tanaka. Tanaka has definitely had the Mariners number in his career, but despite that and the fact Seattle only scored three runs yesterday, look for this one to still go Over. Seattle did score 10 runs on Sunday and still leads MLB with 70 home runs. Play OVER Seattle-Yankees AAA |
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05-06-19 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 221.5 | Top | 108-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Golden State-Houston Houston had to have Game #3 (we took them) and they came through with a 126-121 win in overtime, led by James Harden's (who else) 41 points. That win may ultimately be for naught if the Rockets don't win here as well, but this time we're keyed on the Under. Every game in the series has been close (decided by 6 pts or less). We are actually 3-0 in the series, winning with the Rockets in Games #1 (they covered plus the points) and #3. We also won with the Under in Game #1. The last two games have been pretty high scoring, which is what you'd expect when these teams play one another. But the Under is actually still 9-3 the previous 12 meetings and 19-8-1 in the Rockets' last 28 games overall. The Under is also 8-3 the last 11 times Golden State has been off a straight up loss. In the playoffs, Houston is only giving up an average of 103.6 points/game. Their scoring is also way down (108.7 points/game). A lot of that has to do with playing Utah, but note Game 3 was "only" 112-112 at the end of regulation. Play UNDER Golden State-Houston AAA |
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05-06-19 | Nationals v. Brewers UNDER 8 | Top | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Washington-Milwaukee Seeing Max Scherzer with a 1-6 team start record is certainly something we're unaccustomed to, but it's the reality entering Monday's start in Milwaukee. The Washington ace really hasn't pitched that poorly, although he's definitely not been up to the usual Scherzer standard. His WHIP is a very respectable 1.17 though. Even though the Nationals have lost his last two starts, both were quality efforts from Scherzer as he went seven innings and allowed three runs or less each time. Strikeout numbers are still good. So we expect Scherzer to pitch well in this spot tonight. He has a 2.40 ERA in eight career games vs. Milwaukee. The problem lately for Washington has been scoring runs as an injury-depleted lineup has been held to three runs or less in 8 of its last 10 games. Milwaukee is off a series (three-game sweep of the Mets) where every game stayed Under. The Under is 6-1 this year with tonight's starter (Chacin) on the mound. Chacin has pitched better at home so far and has a 2.88 ERA in 10 career starts vs. the Nationals. Play UNDER Washington-Milwaukee AAA |
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05-06-19 | Bruins v. Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Boston-Columbus The Bruins will be looking to close out the Blue Jackets Monday, but to do so they'll have to win in Columbus. This is the first time facing elimination for the Jackets in these playoffs as they of course pulled off a stunning first round sweep of top seed Tampa Bay. Boston was taken to a Game 7 in Round 1 by Toronto, but this time it's a little different as they enter Game 6 on the road up 3-2 in the series, rather than down. Game 7 (if necessary) is in Boston, so the Bruins have that ace in the hole. The first four games of the series were all Unders before Boston won Game 5 by a score of 4-3. With the stakes even higher tonight, this should go back to being a low-scoring series. Both goalies have been great so far. Boston's Tuuka Rask has a .932 save percentage in the playoffs and is above that number in this series. For Columbus, Sergei Bobrovsky isn't far behind with a .928 postseason save percentage. Both of these teams have seen far more Unders than Overs this season, so the way this series has played out should not be shocking to anyone. The Under is 11-3 the last 14 times Columbus has been favored on the money line. Play UNDER Boston-Columbus AAA |
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05-05-19 | Braves v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UNDER Atlanta-Miami No team has scored fewer runs this season than Miami. They have just 90 in 32 games, which means less than three per game and they've stayed true to that form in this series vs. the Braves where both games have seen them score just twice. But both games have gone Over due to Atlanta scoring as the Braves have been one of the highest scoring teams in the National League. Thus, this game would normally set up as a mismatch, but don't be shocked if/when Miami starter Lopez keeps his team in this one. Lopez has a 3.18 ERA and 0.941 WHIP in his last three starts. That he gave up four runs his last time on the mound seems pretty unfair seeing as he allowed only three hits. What's really crazy about Lopez's starts though is how few runs Miami has scored. They've been shutout in three of them and scored just four total in the last five! All five starts have gone Under. Braves starter Teheran shouldn't have much trouble keeping the Marlins bats in check here. Take away the three home runs he allowed vs. San Diego on Tuesday and Teheran actually pitched pretty well in his last outing. Play UNDER Atlanta-Miami AAA |
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05-04-19 | Mariners v. Indians OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 102 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Seattle-Cleveland We had the Under when these teams met Friday. That was an easy winner with the Indians winning 2-1 in walkoff fashion on Tyler Naquin's pinch-hit single that came with two outs in the bottom of the ninth. Cleveland is now 4-0 vs. Seattle this season. After starting the year by winning 13 of their first 15 games, the Mariners are really on a downward slide right now. They've lost 14 of 19 and in five of the last seven games, they've scored 0 or 1 run. But the Over is still 23-8-3 in all of their games and we expect them to rediscover some of that "lost" offense today against Cleveland's Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco has given up four or more runs in half of his starts so far. Seattle has still scored the most runs in all of baseball with 190 in 34 games. They've also hit 61 home runs, tied for the major league lead. Unfortunately, it doesn't help them that they have Mike Leake pitching today. Leake arrives in poor form, having delivering a 5.82 ERA and 1.588 WHIP his last three turns in the rotation. The Over is 3-0 when he starts on the road this season. He gave up nine runs in his last start. Much different game than last night. Play OVER Seattle-Cleveland AAA |
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05-03-19 | Mets v. Brewers UNDER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Mets-Milwaukee You can't get any lower scoring than the Mets last two games, each of which were 1-0 finals. They won one and lost one, the win coming yesterday thanks to a tremendous outing from Noah Syndergaard. The loss was started by Jacob deGrom. Tonight's starter Steven Matz doesn't have the resume of those two starters, but we expect him to pitch well in this spot. Matz's overall numbers remain heavily skewed due to one terrible effort against the Phillies. But the other five starts have all seen him allow no more than three runs. Matz's last two starts have seen him go 13 innings while allowing only three runs. Meanwhile, Milwaukee just gave up 22 runs the last two days in a pair of losses to Colorado (11 each game). That shouldn't continue here seeing how few runs the Mets have scored recently. They have put just 22 runs on the road in the last eight games. So look for a quality start here from Brandon Woodruff, who gave up just one run in five innings when he faced the Mets last week. In that same series, Matz went seven innings and allowed just two runs on five hits. Play UNDER Mets-Milwaukee AAA |
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05-03-19 | Mariners v. Indians UNDER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UNDER Seattle-Cleveland The Indians were dealt a big blow in the last 48 hours when Corey Kluber was struck with a line drive, breaking his right arm. We'll see how that affects them moving forward, but another issue the club is dealing with is an inability to consistently score runs. They've scored three runs or less in six of the last eight games and are hitting only .215 as a team. That's the lowest team BA in the American League. Seattle is near the top of most offensive categories, but they seem to be running on fumes now after losing seven of nine. They're batting just .202 the last 18 games. The last four games have seen them get outscored 46-7! They were swept at home by the Indians just a couple of weeks ago. Two struggling offenses should result in an Under in this game, even with neither starter possessing overwhelmingly great numbers. But Shane Bieber got the job done for Cleveland at Seattle in that last series, limiting them to one run and four hits. For the Mariners, Kikuchi has allowed more than 3 ER in just two starts. He'll stop the bleeding in terms of runs allowed, but we don't expect much scoring here from Seattle either. Play UNDER Seattle-Cleveland AAA |
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05-02-19 | Bruins v. Blue Jackets OVER 5 | Top | 4-1 | Push | 0 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OVER Boston-Columbus The scrappy Columbus Blue Jackets now lead the Bruins 2 games to 1 in this best of seven series. It's been a nice rally from the Jackets after dropping Game #1 in Boston. Of course, what else should we have expected. This is a team that stunned the hockey universe by sweeping a historically great Tampa Bay team (won 62 regular season games) in Round #1. No matter who's won in this series, every game has gone Under. Game #3, won 2-1 by Columbus, was the lowest scoring to date. What's interesting about the series being 3-0 Under is that there have been a lot of shots on goal, a little over 70 per game to be exact. Tip your cap to the two goaltenders then as Tuukka Rask and Sergei Bobrovsky have really done their jobs. But I think Game 4 will be the highest scoring of the series. Can Bobrovsky really maintain his high level of play, moving forward? He has a .937 save percentage so far in the playoffs. He was tied for only 16th in goals against average in the regular season and was 21st in goals against average. Play OVER Boston-Columbus AAA |
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05-02-19 | Rays v. Royals UNDER 8 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Tampa Bay-Kansas City Shockingly, the Royals were able to sweep Wednesday's doubleheader from the Rays. That result is in no way indicative of how the two teams have started the season. Kansas City is still only 11-20 on the year and in last place in the AL Central. Tampa Bay is 19-11 and still leads the AL East. The Rays had also gone 10-1 vs. KC since the start of last season before losing two yesterday. Maybe they get their revenge today, but look for the Under to definitely hit. A big reason why the Rays are in first place is their pitching, which is tied for the Major League lead in runs allowed. Charlie Morton goes today and not only is he unbeaten (3-0) in six starts, he has a 1.72 ERA in his three road starts. Now the Rays were only able to score two runs in both games Wednesday, which is obviously a problem. Danny Duffy will make just his second start of 2019 here after coming off the disabled list. He was OK on Friday as he allowed three runs in five innings. We expect him to be better today. Duffy has a 2.90 ERA in five career starts vs. Tampa Bay. In those five starts, he has 37 strikeouts and only eight walks in 31 innings pitched. Play UNDER Tampa Bay-Kansas City AAA |
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05-01-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets OVER 219 | Top | 97-90 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
analysis coming |
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05-01-19 | Cardinals v. Nationals OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER St. Louis-Washington Max Scherzer is from St. Louis, so getting to face the Cardinals will always hold a special meaning for him. But the bottom line is that in 2019 Scherzer has not looked like the same pitcher we're used to seeing. His first month of the season produced a 1-5 team start record as well as a 4.12 ERA. That the Nationals are 0-4 at home with him on the mound is really surprising. Now Scherzer has pitched better in D.C. than his record would suggest. He's also still striking out plenty of hitters. Regardless of how well Scherzer pitches Wednesday, we feel this game is set to go Over due to the Nationals hitters facing Miles Mikolas, who has not been very sharp for the Cardinals. Six starts have brought a 5.29 ERA for Mikolas and the Over is 5-1. The road is where he's been at his worst as the Over is 3-0 and he has a 6.60 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. In three games vs. Washington, Mikokas has a 6.43 ERA. Both offenses are averaging more than 5.0 runs/game this season. This should be an easy Over as St. Louis is 14-3 Over after giving up two runs or less in its last game. Play OVER St. Louis-Washington AAA |
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05-01-19 | Tigers v. Phillies UNDER 8 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Detroit-Philadelphia This is going to be a low-scoring affair. For starters, Detroit doesn't bring much offense to the table. They are last in the American League in runs scored. Put them in a National League park where they can't use the designated hitter and you have to figure that they'll really struggle to put runs on the road. Sure enough, they scored only three times last night, but that was enough for a win over the Phillies. Holding Philly to just one run again might prove difficult, but we think we can count on yet another rough day at the plate for the visitors. The Phillies are heavy favorites Wednesday and if they can get to the ninth with a lead, that will chop off half an inning. Seven of the Phillies last nine games have seen the losing side held to 0 or 1 run. Off their last two losses, they came back and delivered a win in shutout fashion. Tonight's starter Aaron Nola gave up just one run in his last start and his two best outings of the year were both here at home. Tigers starter Norris is just two starts removed from tossing five shutout innings. He's given up two runs or less in three of his last five starts. Play UNDER Detroit-Philadelphia AAA |
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04-30-19 | Sharks v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | Top | 4-2 | Push | 0 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER San Jose-Colorado This series is tied up at one game apiece after the Avalanche won a wild Game 2 that saw four goals scored in the last 10 minutes (2 per side). After falling behind early, the Avs twice led by as many as two goals. It was their first time beating the Sharks in five tries this season. Now the series goes to Denver where the Avs have won 13 of 16. While Game #3 seemingly sets up well for the home team, the Under looks like the better (and safer) call. Game 2 certainly "should have" been an Under as it was a 2-1 game with just under 10 minutes to go. The goal that sent the game Over came on a Sharks power play in the final minute when they had a two-man advantage. It was the second goal scored in the game's final 62 seconds. San Jose's goals per game average drops on the road, which isn't surprising, but the fact Colorado's goals per game average stays the same at home (vs. the road) is notable. With every meeting this season resulting in an Over, it's time for an Under. The Under is 4-1 in San Jose's last five road games. Play UNDER San Jose-Colorado AAA |
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04-30-19 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 220 | Top | 102-123 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Boston-Milwaukee Boston came out and took Game 1 from Milwaukee, winning 112-90 as eight-point underdogs. They held the Bucks, who lead the league in scoring mind you, to 34.8 percent shooting. That's quite impressive as is the fact the Celtics have now won and covered six straight going back to the final game of the regular season. But we don't expect the visitors to shoot the ball as well in Game #2 as they did in Game #1. Sunday saw Kyrie Irving and company sink 54% of their total shot attempts, including 13 of 31 from three-point range. That's a lot of 3-pt attempts too, far more than we're accustomed to seeing from Boston. To avoid falling into a dangerous 0-2 series hole, Milwaukee must not only fix its shooting woes from Game #1, but also its play on the defensive end. The latter component shouldn't be that hard as the Bucks were #1 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. They held the Pistons, an admittedly inferior team compared to the Celtics, to 98 points/game in Round 1. Boston has allowed fewer than 100 points in four of its five playoff games. Play UNDER Boston-Milwaukee AAA |
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04-29-19 | Astros v. Twins OVER 8 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Houston-Minnesota Minnesota just hit 12 home runs in a three-game sweep over the weekend. Of course, they had the luxury of facing a Baltimore pitching staff that is bad as any in baseball. It won't be as easy to start the week as they are going up against Houston, beginning with Justin Verlander occupying the mound Monday. But the Twins are at home at least. And this time it won't be them having to do all the scoring for Over bettors. The Astros are off a hard fought four-game split with Cleveland, which ended with a 4-1 win last night. But when they faced the Twins last week, they scored 22 runs in three games. Verlander has obviously been great in 2019 as was anticipated. He held Minnesota's lineup to 1 run and 4 hits in a win last week. But the Twins still average 5.7 runs per game for the year and should be able to put more on the board here in their home park. Jake Odorizzi has been surprisingly good for Minny, but Monday's starter is also at the disadvantage of facing the opponent for the second time in a week. The Over is 5-1 the last six times Odorizzi has started a series opener. The Twins have scored 55 runs in the last eight games. Play OVER Houston-Minnesota AAA |
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04-28-19 | Rangers v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | Top | 14-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UNDER Texas-Seattle Seattle got clubbed yesterday, losing 15-1 to Texas. That was a case of getting a taste of its own medicine as the Mariners are the team used to putting a bunch of runs on the board. They lead the majors with 183 runs scored. But scoring over six runs per contest is a pace no team is going to be able to maintain. For the sake of comparison, only four teams averaged 5.0 runs/game last season. We have already seen the Mariners begin to taper off as they've been held to three runs or less in three of their past five ballgames. The Over is still 20-7-3 in all games, but that is going to start changing as the offense slowly begins to regress. They are also not going to be giving up anywhere close to the number of runs they allowed Saturday. Texas had not topped five runs in the last week before scoring 15 times yesterday. Starting today for the Mariners will be Erik Swanson. While 0-2, he has a 0.77 WHIP. Lance Lynn goes for the Rangers. He was hit hard by Oakland in his most recent start, but had given up two runs or less in each of three starts prior to that one. The under is 4-1 the last five times Texas has been off a win. Play UNDER Texas-Seattle AAA |
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04-28-19 | Rockets v. Warriors UNDER 224.5 | Top | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Houston-Golden State Last year's Western Conference Finals between the Rockets and Warriors resulted in far more Unders (5) than Overs (1). It was a seven-game series remember (Game 1 total pushed) and the Rockets had a 3-2 series lead before Chris Paul was lost to a hamstring injury. The Under trend continued in the regular season with three of four games games going that way. It's not as if the two teams have something against scoring, it's that their respective reputations have led to consistently high totals. It's usually a hard fought game when they play with more defense being played than the public thinks. Houston won three of the four regular season games, holding Golden State under its season average three times, the exception being an overtime game. The Rockets have gotten a lot better defensively down the stretch as well. They just held Utah to an average of 97.8 points and 40.0% shooting in the first round series. The Under is 16-5 the last 21 times they have played Golden State and 21-8-1 their last 30 games overall. We expect Golden State to defend reasonably well here as well. Play UNDER Houston-Golden State AAA |
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04-27-19 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OVER Cubs-Diamondbacks Both starters in this matchup have really struggled so far in 2019. Yu Darvish of the Cubs has a 5.96 ERA and 1.72 WHIP after five starts. (The team is just 1-4 in those games). Zack Godley of Arizona may have a better team start record (3-2), but the personal numbers more closely resemble Darvish. Godley has a 6.67 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. So expect a lot of runs to be scored Saturday night at Chase Field. Last night, the Diamondbacks opened the series by winning 8-3. It was their fifth straight win and they've scored 8 or more runs in three of the five wins. This is the second series of the year between the teams and these games at Chase Field figure to be higher scoring than the ones at Wrigley were. The Cubs average 6.3 runs per game on the road, but also allow 6.2. The Cubs bullpen has also been quite terrible this year and things are even more dire on the road with a 7.20 ERA and 1.86 WHIP. All three Darvish starts on the road have been Overs. Four of Godley's overall starts have been Overs. The Diamondbacks have the most extra base hits in the National League with 113. They homered twice off Darvish last week. Play OVER Cubs-Arizona AAA |
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04-27-19 | Yankees v. Giants UNDER 7 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Yankees-Giants Playing the Under on this matchup last night was a rare misfire for us and our lone loss on the board. We'll go with the Under again today. The Giants offense remains very poor and we remain skeptical that the "rogue's gallery" that the Yankees are trotting out as an everyday lineup can get the job done on the regular. San Francisco scored just three runs Friday, which is right in line with their season average. They are 28th in runs scored, 29th in batting average and 29th in OPS. They figure to not do much today against a starter (J.A. Happ) that has delivered two straight quality outings. Happ may need another quality outing today if the Yanks are to win though. Yes, they managed to score 11 runs last night. But they don't have Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton or a designated hitter in this series. The former two absences are due to injuries while the latter is because of National League rules. Whatever the reasons, it's certainly to the benefit of Giants starter Derek Holland, who has allowed more than three runs only once in five starts anyway. Play UNDER Yankees-Giants AAA |
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04-27-19 | Reds v. Cardinals UNDER 9 | Top | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UNDER Cincinnati-St. Louis The Reds exploded for 12 runs Friday night. Such an offensive display is highly irregular for them. Before yesterday, they had barely been averaging three runs per game on the road and were batting less than .200 as a team. At the same time, they've also allowed the fewest runs among NL teams, so them holding the Cards to 1 was pretty par for the course. Obviously, Cincy has been a strong Under bet the first month of the season with 19 of their first 25 games going that way. The Under is 4-0 when Saturday starter Tyler Mahle is pitching. Figure on the Reds bats being somewhat silenced today, at least compared to yesterday's performance. Day games have resulted in even fewer runs per game than usual for the Reds. Dakota Hudson has been far from great in four starts for St. Louis, but facing the team with the lowest batting average in baseball would seem to be a favorable matchup. The Reds are also bottom five in runs and OPS. They won't be hitting five home runs again as they did Friday. Play UNDER Cincinnati-St. Louis AAA |
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04-26-19 | Yankees v. Giants UNDER 6.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Yankees-Giants The Yankees have a real "skeleton crew" for a lineup right now with no Aaron Judge and no Giancarlo Stanton in the lineup. Something else they won't have in the lineup this weekend is a DH. They head to San Francisco to face the National League's Giants and tonight's game figures to be a challenge for the Pinstripes at the plate. They'll have to go against Madison Bumgarner. Stanton has actually had a lot of previous success against Bumgarner, so he'll be especially missed. No one in the projected lineup for the Yankees on Friday has ever faced Bumgarner. MadBum has a 0.97 WHIP in five starts this season. He'll be opposed by James Paxton, who has delivered back to back outstanding starts for New York. Paxton has delivered 14 consecutive scoreless innings with only five hits allowed and 24 strikeouts. The Giants are one of the worst offensive teams in all of baseball right now, hitting only .212 as a team (.196 at home) and averaging only 3.1 runs/game (2nd fewest overall). This shapes up to be a really low-scoring game. Play UNDER Yankees-Giants AAA |
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04-26-19 | Angels v. Royals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Angels-KC The Angels came through in the clutch for us last night, beating the Yankees 11-5. They actually trailed 4-0 headed into the bottom of the fifth, which is when the game totally changed. That kind of effort at the plate has been pretty rare for LA this season, though there have been two previous times they scored at least 10 runs in a game. However, each time they followed with an Under the next time out. Such should be the case again tonight as they head to Kansas City. The Under is 8-2-1 in all Angels road games so far. Starter Tyler Skaggs has seen the Under go 4-0 his last four starts, even though he gave up three home runs in his last start, which was two weeks ago. He's battled a sprained left ankle. Kansas City's Danny Duffy is starting for the first time all season. His one rehab start (in Double A) went well enough. Skaggs has a 0.43 ERA in three previous starts vs. KC. The Royals also scored 10 runs in their last game, so they're due for an off-night at the plate as well. Play UNDER LA Angels-Kansas City AAA |
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04-26-19 | Hurricanes v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Carolina-NY Islanders This should be a "grind it out" series where goals are tough to come by. We expect Game 1 to be especially low scoring. The Islanders swept the Penguins in the first round and allowed just six goals in the entire series. Carolina had some ugly defensive games in the Washington series, but did a great job at limiting shots. The Capitals averaged just 27.7 shots per game, which is a low number and should serve Hurricanes goalie Petr Mrazek well moving forward. As for Islanders goalie Robin Lehner, he posted a .956 save percentage vs. the Penguins. He has been a big reason why the Islanders allowed the fewest number of goals in the league this season. The Under is 45-18-2 in the Islanders last 65 games. Game 1 has Under written all over it. Play UNDER Carolina-NY Islanders AAA |
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04-24-19 | Tigers v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Detroit-Boston This three-game report really sees us "bucking" the early season trends. We're going Over with the top Under team (Cincinnati) and Under on one of the top Over teams (Baltimore). Right below the Reds in the Under "pecking order" is a Detroit team whose games are averaging less than 7.0 runs (14-8 Under). They've scored the third fewest runs while giving up the fifth fewest. But, in line with the rest of today's card, we're going the other way today. Yesterday, they swept Boston in a day/night doubleheader here at Fenway Park (won 7-4 and 4-2). The Red Sox couldn't possibly be more disappointing and a big reason for that is they have given up the second most runs in all of baseball. Only Baltimore has given up more. Tonight's starter Eduardo Rodriguez has been a big part of the problem as he has a 7.20 ERA and 1.65 WHIP through four starts. The Red Sox bullpen has also been very bad this year. Tyson Ross will start for the Tigers and he has struggled in both road starts, walking more batters (8) than he has struck out (7). His ERA and WHIP in those two starts are: 4.91 and 1.55 respectively. Play OVER Detroit-Boston AAA |
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04-24-19 | White Sox v. Orioles UNDER 10 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
analysis coming |
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04-24-19 | Braves v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play OVER Atlanta-Cincinnati The Reds are by far and away the top Under team in baseball right now. They came into last night's game vs. Atlanta sporting a 17-4 Under mark in the first 21 games. But wouldn't you know - last night's game went Over with the Reds bats even showing up for once. They won 7-6, which snapped a 7-game Under streak. Three of the Reds previous four Overs came in a row, but since then the Under had been 10-1. Tonight, we'll look for another Over. Last night was the Reds most runs scored in a game since crushing Miami 14-0 back on the 9th. They may be last in batting average, but as we saw last night, Atlanta can be accommodating. The Braves are giving up 6.3 runs/game on the road, the highest average in all of baseball. Mike Soroka will start for them here and he has just one start under his belt. On the flip side, Atlanta is scoring 6.2 runs/game itself on the road. Is it any wonder the Over is 7-2 in their nine road games? Braves hitters are quite familiar with the pitcher they'll face today, Tanner Roark, who spent the last several seasons with Washington. Play OVER Atlanta-Cincinnati AAA |
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04-23-19 | Golden Knights v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Vegas-San Jose Of the five Round 1 series that are now in the books, the lower seeded team is a perfect 5-0. That's a good sign for Vegas (the team, not necessarily the sportsbooks) here for Game 7 in San Jose. But a 2-1 double overtime loss in Game 6, at home, was not a good sign. That kind of loss can definitely be difficult to get over. While we don't rule the Golden Knights out, we definitely wouldn't play them here, or touch the moneyline either way. Though the teams combined for just three goals in 90+ minutes in Game #6, expect more scoring here for Game #7. Game #6 was the first in the series where the winning team did NOT score at least five goals. Vegas had 59 shots on goal though. While Sharks goalie Martin Jones has definitely gotten hot the last two games (stopped 88 of 91 shots), let's not be quick to forget the fact that Vegas scored 16 goals in Games #2-4. On the road, the Golden Knights are prone to giving up more goals too. They allowed the third fewest # of goals per game at home in the regular season. On the road, they ranked #17. Play OVER Vegas-San Jose AAA |
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04-23-19 | Rangers v. A's UNDER 8 | Top | 5-11 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Texas-Oakland I took Oakland last night and that was a pretty easy winner as they blew out the Rangers 6-1. The teams had a similar number of hits (A's 7 to Rangers 6), but the obvious difference is that the A's were able to take advantage when they had runners in scoring position. The final result was also a departure from what we'd seen from each club recently. Texas came into this series having won 6 of 7. But all those games were played in Arlington. The road has seen them go just 2-5 and they've been held to two runs or less in four of those seven games. Oakland had lost five of six going into yesterday and had scored two runs or less in four of its last five. We expect a low scoring game tonight as two good looking starting pitchers take the hill. Lance Lynn is one Ranger not bothered by the road. His two starts away from Arlington have yielded a 2.08 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Oakland's Frankie Montas has a 1.46 ERA and 0.65 WHIP in two home starts. Montas has yet to allow more than 3 ER in a start while Lynn has given up just five in his last 18 2/3 innings pitched. Play UNDER Texas-Oakland AAA |
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04-23-19 | Nets v. 76ers UNDER 230 | Top | 100-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Brooklyn-Philadelphia Brooklyn has been a little tougher than expected for Philadelphia, yet they come into tonight facing elimination on the road. The Nets took Game 1 by holding the Sixers to only 102 points and they'll need a similar effort on the defensive end if they are to stay alive tonight. The good news is the Nets were better defensively in Game 4, allowing 112 points, but it still wasn't enough to get the win at home. But it was a marked improvement from Games #2 and #3 when they gave up 145 and 131 points. As for the offense, Brooklyn is only shooting 43.0% overall in the series. Philly plays a little better defense at home (110.5 PPG allowed) and this total would appear to be a little high. The Nets are 8-3 Under the last 11 times they have been off an ATS loss. Play UNDER Brooklyn-Philadelphia AAA |
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04-22-19 | Bucks v. Pistons UNDER 218.5 | Top | 127-104 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Milwaukee-Detroit We already talked about the Bucks defense, which has held the Pistons to an average of 96 points per game on 38.0% shooting, and ranks #1 in the league in efficiency. Detroit didn't exactly come into the playoffs as any kind of offensive juggernaut either. They had the lowest offensive efficiency rating of any playoff team, so this really was a mismatch from the start. Furthermore, the Pistons are bottom five in the league in true shooting and effective field goal %. Milwaukee is averaging 120 points/game in the series and as a result the last two games both went Over. But even though we like them to cover, we'll call for a slight decrease in scoring for Game #4. The Under is 6-0 the last six times following a game where Detroit scored 100 points. The Under is also on a 15-6-1 run when they are off a double digit loss at home. Play UNDER Milwaukee-Detroit AAA |
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04-21-19 | Blue Jays v. A's UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Toronto-Oakland Toronto is seeking a three-game sweep in Oakland on Sunday. They've taken the first two games by scores of 5-1 and 10-1. Once again, we expect the home team to do little scoring. Over their last four games, the A's have scored a grand total of five runs, never scoring more than two in any game. That kind of offensive output is a far cry from how they started the year. At one point, they had gone Over in eight straight games. As for the Blue Jays, they've been one of the weaker offensive teams in all of baseball. Saturday marked a season high in both runs (10) and hits (15), so expect a lot less at the plate today. Oakland's Brett Anderson is 3-0 this year with a 2.62 ERA. Toronto's Aaron Sanchez is 2-1 with a 2.86 ERA. Sunday's two starters should "rule the day" here in a game that shouldn't see much offense. The Blue Jays have only allowed 84 runs in 22 games. It's a little surprising that the Under hasn't come in more for them, but it will today. Play UNDER Toronto-Oakland AAA |
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04-21-19 | Nationals v. Marlins UNDER 7 | Top | 5-0 | Win | 109 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Washington-Miami Miami just fired its hitting coach. Considering they had scored the fewest number of runs in all of baseball, it was a predictable move. In their first game since the firing, they scored nine runs in a shocking display against Max Scherzer and in the process guaranteed they'd win their first series all year. We seriously doubt it was all on the hitting coach though and with the hitters remaining the same, expect the Marlins struggles at the plate to continue moving forward. They'll have to face arch nemesis Stephen Strasburg today. Strasburg has had Miami's number through the years. In 31 career games, he's 17-7 against them with a 3.02 ERA. In 173 innings pitched, he has 182 strikeouts. Miami will go with Trevor Richards, who has a killer changeup, but zero wins. But with the Nationals having been held to four runs or less in seven of the last eight games, Richards may very well be in line for that elusive victory today. Regardless, this will be a low-scoring affair. Play UNDER Washington-Miami AAA |
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04-21-19 | White Sox v. Tigers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER White Sox-Tigers These teams were rained out on Saturday, thus they finish what will be a three-game set here and this is a rubber match. Detroit took the first game 9-7. They gave up seven runs again the second time, but this time couldn't score enough to keep pace with the White Sox, who limited the Tigers to just three on Friday. The Tigers probably like their chances going against Reynaldo Lopez today as he's really struggled this year with an 8.85 ERA and 2.12 WHIP. But Lopez was much better in his last start where he held the Royals to just one run in six innings. Detroit goes with Daniel Norris, who will be making his first start of 2019. Norris, who has pitched out of the bullpen so far, was slated to go yesterday before Mother Nature came calling. He has pitched well in the past vs. the White Sox (2.53 ERA in five appearances). This is Lopez's scheduled turn, so he's working on normal rest (Ervin Santana skipped). Lopez has had success against Detroit (3.22 ERA in seven starts). The Tigers are only averaging 3.0 runs/game. This one stays Under. Play UNDER Chicago-Detroit AAA |
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04-20-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs UNDER 208 | Top | 117-103 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Nuggets-Spurs Given the pace these teams typically play at, we've been a bit surprised to see the last two games go Over. What we were not surprised about in Game 3 was San Antonio winning and getting the cover. We laid the points with the Spurs, noting that they easily could have taken both games in Denver (blew late lead in Game 2). They got the job done in Game 3 despite the Nuggets shooting better than 50% overall and from three-point range. It was the Nuggets' 14th straight loss here in San Antonio. It's tough to imagine them shooting any better than they did in Game 3. It's also tough to imagine the Spurs Derrick White coming anywhere close to the career high 36 points he turned in two nights ago. Again, pace of play is key as both teams rank in the bottom five in adjusted tempo. Denver is in some real trouble in this series, but we like the Under most of all for Game 4 as some of the numbers we saw in Game 3 won't be matched here. The Under is 20-8 in Denver's past 28 games. Play UNDER Denver-San Antonio AAA |
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04-19-19 | Mariners v. Angels UNDER 9 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Seattle-LA Angels Something had to give last night as the Mariners, losers of six in a row, took on an Angels team that had dropped three straight. Turns out that it was the former's losing skid that came to an end and it did so in a way that has been all too familiar - Seattle scoring a ton of runs. They won 11-10, increasing their league leading total of runs scored to 143 (in 22 games played). The Mariners actually blew an 8-run advantage before scoring the go-ahead run in the top of the 9th. The Angels scored all but one of their runs in one inning (7th) and the absence of a big inning tonight is probable for a team that's gone 13-5-1 Under in all games this season. Even worse is they are facing a lefty (Marco Gonzales) and are 1-4 vs. lefties (Under is 5-0), scoring only 1.8 runs/game and batting .173. Gonzales has allowed three runs or fewer in three straight starts. Seattle had cooled off considerably at the plate before yesterday's explosion. During the six-game losing streak, all of which was at home, they had scored a total of 15 runs. Angels starter Pena has a 1.05 ERA in two home starts. Play UNDER Seattle-LA Angels AAA |
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04-19-19 | Celtics v. Pacers OVER 203.5 | Top | 104-96 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Boston-Indiana Talk about low scoring. It doesn't get much more low scoring than what we've seen in the first two games of this Celtics-Pacers series. Boston is up 2-0 despite not scoring 100 points in either game. They've held Indiana to 74 and 91 points, really taking charge in the second half of both games. After shooting very poorly themselves in the first half of Game 1, the Celtics held the Pacers to eight points in the third quarter and went on to cruise to victory. Game 2 saw them hold Indiana without a field goal over the last five minutes. But now the Pacers are back home and we should see a pretty substantial improvement in their shooting. They are just 38.8% from the field in the series, including 31% from three-point range. For the year, they are shooting 47.8% overall and 38.1% from three at home. Boston is also a better offensive team that what they've shown so far. Only three players scored more than six points in Game 2 and you figure that has to change as well. The Pacers have had three sub-20 point quarters in the series. There will be nothing of the sort Friday as the Over is 4-1 the last five meetings in Indiana. Play OVER Boston-Indiana AAA |
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04-19-19 | Royals v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Royals-Yankees The surprising thing about last night's game between the Royals and Yankees was who won. The Royals punched a ticket at +182 on the money line, winning 6-1 here at Yankee Stadium. New York continues to struggle as their record is 8-10, although having a positive run differential says they've played better than you might think. What was not surprising about last night's game is that it stayed Under the total. The Yankees last five games have all stayed Under. For the Royals, that streak is four straight. Expect tonight's game to be another low scoring affair. The Yankees are averaging only 3.8 runs per game at home. We mentioned that in another Under play we had on them earlier this week (against Boston). The Royals are scoring even less on the road (3.4 runs/game) while batting .218. All three Jake Junis starts have gone Over this year, but it's critical to note two of them did not see more than nine total runs scored. CC Sabathia pitched better than anyone could have imagined in his only start. He held the White Sox scoreless for five frames while allowing just one hit. Play UNDER Royals-Yankees AAA |
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04-18-19 | Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 237 | Top | 132-105 | Push | 0 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Golden State-LA Clippers With both teams shooting better than 53% in Game 2 and combining for 266 total points, it's no wonder that the total is so high for Game 3. Of course the "real" story from Monday night is that the Clippers erased a 31-point deficit in the second half and won straight up as 14-point underdogs. In terms of margin, it was the greatest comeback in playoff history. Golden State will obviously be fired up for Game 3 and we see them turning things up on the defensive end. The Under is 4-1 the last five times the Warriors allowed 125 or more points the previous game. It is also a perfect 6-0 if they themselves topped 125 the last game. This is the highest total for any of the three games so far and three of the four regular season meetings also went Under. Neither team will shoot the ball as well as they did in Game 2 and Golden State is now without DeMarcus Cousins. Play UNDER Golden State-LA Clippers AAA |
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04-17-19 | Giants v. Nationals UNDER 9 | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER San Francisco-Washington The Giants are one of the weakest teams offensively in either league. They rank dead last in OPS and are bottom three in both runs scored and team batting average. So selecting the Under when they take the field seems only natural. We really like the idea of doing so tonight as they actually scored seven times last night, which matched a season high for them. In more than half of their games (11 of 19), the Giants have been held to three runs or less. Washington knows that feeling as well. They've been held to exactly three runs in four straight games. The Giants shocking hit 3 HR's last night off Stephen Strasburg, matching the total # of HR's hit from the previous six games combined. Look for the power surge to be short-lived, however, as they go up against Jeremy Hellickson, who threw six shutout innings at Philadelphia exactly one week ago. Hellickson also has a history of success when facing San Francisco. The Under is 16-3 in his last 19 starts. History has not been kind to Giants starter Jeff Samardzija when facing the Nationals, but he has pitched well in 2019 (1.62 ERA in three starts) and is being backed by a bullpen that entered yesterday's game with a 1.77 ERA. Play UNDER San Francisco-Washington AAA |
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04-17-19 | Pacers v. Celtics UNDER 203.5 | Top | 91-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UNDER Indiana-Boston All eight Game 1's in the NBA Playoffs went Under and none were lower scoring than Indiana-Boston, which was an 84-74 Celtics win. To say the Pacers performance in the third quarter was "ugly" would be an understatement. They scored all of eight points! That one quarter was the difference in the game. It turned a seven-point halftime lead into an 11-point deficit going into the 4th quarter. Boston did not outscore Indiana in any other quarter. But enough about that. Game 2 promises to be low scoring too. Maybe not as low scoring as Game 1, but low enough for the Under to hit again. Indiana's calling card all season has been defense. They give up the fewest number of points per game (104.6 in regular season) in the league. We've also seen how they're going to struggle (mightily) to score in this series (remember, no Victor Oladpio). The Under is 9-2 in Indiana's last nine road games and 21-10 their last 31 visits to Boston. Play UNDER Indiana-Boston AAA |
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04-17-19 | Indians v. Mariners UNDER 8 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Cleveland-Seattle My, oh my, has Seattle hit the skids. It's now five losses in a row. Can't say that we're surprised considering they couldn't possibly continue the torrid pace they set at the plate to start the year. They have actually homered in every game this season, but they're getting little else, at least recently. The last four games have seen the Mariners score a grand total of 9 runs. Meanwhile, Cleveland hasn't had much offense all season. Not that they've needed much in this series, but 10 runs scored in two games is actually a lot for the Indians. They are averaging just 3.6 runs/game with a team batting average of .207. They are bottom four not only in team batting average, but also in OPS. Carlos Carrasco has not pitched well on the road so far, turning in two pretty dreadful showings. But we expect Carrasco to resemble the pitcher of the last few seasons today. Pitching for Seattle will be Erik Swanson, who is starting for the first time at the big league level. While he's worked in relief previously, Swanson is still an unknown to the Cleveland hitters, so that's an advantage for the pitcher. Take our word for it - this is going to be a low scoring game. Play UNDER Cleveland-Seattle AAA |
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04-17-19 | Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 9.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Red Sox-Yankees Are the Red Sox actually BAD? By the numbers, the answer would be a resounding "yes." Last night's loss dropped them to 6-12 on the season. It's not just that they are losing though. They are routinely getting crushed. The Yankees beat them 8-0 Tuesday, which drops the Red Sox season run differential to -40. Only Miami, who isn't even trying this year, has been outscored by more runs. The culprit for Boston has been awful pitching as they've given up the most runs. But a once mighty lineup isn't scoring anywhere close to the same rate as last season. Take the last two games. They've scored just ONE run. The team is hitting just .229 this season. Yes, both of tonight's starting pitchers have not been good. Boston's Nathan Eovaldi has a 3-0 team start record, but both his ERA (8.40) and WHIP (1.867) aren't good. The same holds true for J.A. Happ of the Yankees as he has an 8.76 ERA and 1.946 WHIP. But despite these gaudy numbers, we expect tonight's game to go Under. Boston just isn't doing much scoring while the Yankees are only averaging 4.0 runs/game at home. The Under is 6-1 the last 7 games here. This would have been an appropriate total last season, not this season. Play UNDER Red Sox-Yankees AAA |
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04-16-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 208 | Top | 105-114 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER San Antonio-Denver Game 1 of this series, which surprisingly went to San Antonio, was an Under as the final score was 101-96. All four regular season meetings between the teams also were Unders. None of that is all too surprising considering neither team plays at a fast pace. You might think of the Nuggets as a "fast paced" team, but they're not. Only three teams in the regular season averaged a fewer number of possessions per game. San Antonio doesn't go much faster as they were tied for 23rd in number of possessions per game. The Under is 7-1 in Denver's last eight home games and 22-7 their last 29 games overall. The Under is 8-2 in San Antonio's last 10 road games and 10-0 their last 10 conference games. When their jumpers aren't falling, the Spurs can struggle to score. While that's not a problem entirely unique to them, they are pretty dependent on three-point shots going in and despite a high shooting percentage, they don't take many. The Nuggets play much better defense at home (103.6 PPG allowed) than on the road, but Game 1 showed that it won't be easy for team that lacks a primary scorer and playoff experience to score. Denver shot just 42% overall in Game 1 and 21.4% from distance. Play UNDER San Antonio-Denver AAA |
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04-16-19 | Islanders v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER NY Islanders-Pittsburgh The Penguins are down 0-3 in this series and have barely led in any of the three games. They've clearly been outplayed by the upstart Islanders and it might be time to start thinking about summer tee times in Pittsburgh. The Penguins simply can't get anything going offensively, having been held to two goals in the last two losses. The Islanders are doing a great job of forechecking and blocking shots, which is what made them one of the league's biggest surprises this year. Obviously, it's also helpful to have a goaltender playing at the level that Robin Lehner is right now. New York's netminder has stopped all but five of the 103 shots he's seen in the series. Lehner and Thomas Griess were instrumental in the Islanders giving up the fewest goals in the league in the regular season. Even if Pittsburgh is finally able to check into the win column, it'll be tough. Expect a low scoring Game 4. The Under is 44-18-2 in the Islanders past 64 games. It's 16-4-1 the Penguins' last 21 games. Play UNDER New York-Pittsburgh AAA |
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04-15-19 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 11 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -111 | 4 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Baltimore-Boston In celebration of the Boston Marathon, we expect plenty of runs to be scored in this early start Monday. This is the finale of a four-game set that started Friday. Boston has won 2 of 3, including 4-0 on Sunday. But in terms of runs allowed this season, these teams are the two worst. They're both 6-10, something that Red Sox could not possibly have expected. It was a 9-5 loss Saturday. But Boston is a huge favorite here as they'll go up against Dan Straily, who struggled mightily in his first start of the year. He gave up five runs in 3 1/3 IP and allowed two home runs. Yesterday's game may have gone Under, but Baltimore is still 11-5 Over in all games while Boston is 10-5-1. The Red Sox go with Hector Velazquez, who may not be expected to go long considering he went just three innings in his only other start. Going into yesterday, the Red Sox were giving up 6.5 runs per game. They were averaging 5.7 themselves. Play OVER Baltimore-Boston AAA |
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04-14-19 | Thunder v. Blazers OVER 225 | Top | 99-104 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER OKC-Portland All four NBA playoff games stayed Under on Saturday. But if the first game on Sunday (Indiana-Boston) doesn't stop the trend, then this one definitely well. Third seeded Portland has lost just two games since St. Patrick's Day, going 11-2 their last 13, and both losses were on the road. Oklahoma City finished as the 6-seed thanks to a five-game win streak to end the regular season, which included a huge win over Houston that shook up the standings in the Western Conference. Both teams can score as they average a near identical number of points per game. OKC is at 114.5 while Portland is 114.6. The Blazers scoring average jumps to 118.2 PPG at home where the Over has gone 16-5-1 the last 22 games. OKC's scoring average doesn't even decline on the road. So an Over seems to be in the cards for Game 1 as this is a much lower total than the last time the teams met. The last three meetings have all delivered at least 231 total points scored. OKC averaged over 120 PPG itself in sweeping the season series (4-0). Play OVER OKC-Portland AAA |
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04-13-19 | Clippers v. Warriors OVER 231.5 | Top | 104-121 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER LA Clippers-Golden State Golden State wasn't the same dominant team this year as they were in regular seasons past, but they still won 57 games, which speaks volumes. For a fourth consecutive year, they wound up leading the league in offensive efficiency. While they didn't have the highest scoring average (Milwaukee did), the first time that's happened since 2013-14, they did end up with their highest scoring average of the Steve Kerr era at 117.7 points per game. Something else notable was a decline at the defensive end. They gave up 111.2 points per game. (They allowed 107.5 last year). Every season under Kerr, the Warriors have been a top 10 team in defensive efficiency. But this year was their lowest ranking at #10. Of course, they're still better defensively than the Clippers, who were 21st in efficiency. LA gave up 114.3 points per game. Only five teams gave up a worse average and none of them made the playoffs. The Over was 7-2 in the Clippers last nine regular season games. It's also 9-2 the last 11 times they've faced Golden State. Play OVER Los Angeles-Golden State AAA |
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04-13-19 | Tigers v. Twins OVER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Detroit-Minnesota So, we also like the Over in this game. Even though Twins starter Pineda doesn't figure to have much difficulty mowing down the Tigers lineup, expect the road team to still score a couple runs. But Minny will do the heavy lifting here as they impressively scored 20 runs in their last two games (at a NL park). Detroit's Tyson Ross was dominant in his last start, but that was because he got to face the Royals, who make any pitcher look good. More telling was Ross giving up multiple home runs and four walks to the Yankees in his first start. He lasted just five innings there. The Twins have scored at least five runs in six of the last eight games. The Over is 6-2 in those games. We think they can easily get to 5 here, if not more, and this is a low total. (We probably should have mentioned in the writeup for the side that the Twins are also 14-2 in their last 16 division games). Play OVER Detroit-Minnesota AAA |
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04-13-19 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Baltimore-Boston Expect plenty of fireworks (i.e. scoring) in this game. Baltimore figures to be a welcome sight for a Boston team that has struggled out of the gate. The Red Sox are only 5-9, which is the same record as the Orioles, something most never thought they'd see - even this early in the season. As expected, Boston took care of its business last night, winning 6-4. They are now 17-3 the L2 seasons against the Orioles. This is also the first time all year Boston has won back to back games. As bad as the Orioles look to be on paper, Rick Porcello is not someone we'd want to invest our money in right now. The Red Sox starter for Saturday has a 13.49 ERA and 3.134 WHIP after two starts, both of which have gone Over. Baltimore is going with Andrew Cashner today and he hasn't been much better with a 5.28 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. Yesterday (where they still allowed 6 runs, mind you) snapped a seven-game Over run for the O's. These teams have given up the most and second most runs in all of baseball entering Saturday's games. Play OVER Baltimore-Boston AAA |
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04-12-19 | A's v. Rangers OVER 10.5 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Oakland-Texas After losing the first game of the series in Baltimore 12-4, the A's steamrolled the Orioles over the next three games, scoring 31 runs in the process. The Over is 5-0 the last five times they've taken the field with them scoring 43 runs by their lonesome. Arlington is generally a place where scoring is not a problem, thus we expect another Over for Oakland tonight. The Rangers are coming off a 2-4 road trip that saw them score 11 runs in the first game (win) but only 13 total in the next five. A return home should do wonders for the Texas offense though as they put up an average of 5.7 runs in their six home games to start the year. Unfortunately, they're also sending out Drew Smyly, whose two starts have not gone well. He's yet to last more than 3 1/3 innings and that's a problem with a bullpen that has a high ERA and WHIP. Oakland's Michael Fiers is off a disastrous showing in Houston where he gave up six runs and couldn't even get out of the second inning. That raised his ERA and WHIP to 5.94 and 1.56 for the year. Play OVER Oakland-Texas AAA |
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04-12-19 | Phillies v. Marlins OVER 8 | Top | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Philly-Miami The Phillies got shellacked in their last two games, giving up 25 runs in pair of losses to the Nationals. But it'll likely be them doing the shellacking here as they head to Miami for a three-game series against the struggling Marlins. In the first week of the season, Philly had no trouble scoring as they put eight or more runs on the board five times in the first six games. But since then, they've scored no more than six in a game and been held to two runs or less in three of their last five. Now that's nothing compared to what happened to Miami in its last series as the Marlins got swept in Cincinnati. They scored ONE run in the three games! We look for both offenses to turn things around tonight, however. The Over is 4-1 the last five times the teams have played against each other. The Marlins are 10-4-1 Over the L15 home games when coming off a road trip of 7 or more days. Starterd Sandy Alcantaras has looked good at times, but had five walks and zero strikeouts in his last start. Philly goes with veteran Jake Arrieta, who is 33 years old and seen his ERA go up each of the last three seasons. He has more walks than strikeouts after two starts. Play OVER Philadelphia-Miami AAA |
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04-12-19 | Blue Jackets v. Lightning OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play OVER Columbus/Tampa Bay Talk about a shocker. Columbus stormed back to win Game 1 in Tampa Bay by a score of 4-3. How the Blue Jackets did it might be the most shocking thing of all. They came back from a 3-0 first period deficit, scoring three goals in the third period, one of them shorthanded. It can't be overstated just how stunning a result and the manner it took place were. The Lightning had a record setting regular season as they finished with 21 more points than every other team, which is the largest gap between one team and the field since the 1995-96 Red Wings. They produced four different win streaks of at least seven games, also matching a record set by Gretzky's Oilers in 1983-84. They had the highest power play percentage in league history (28.1%) and averaged 3.93 goals per game, the most by any team since those 95-96 Red Wings. In four games against the Blue Jackets this season, they've scored 20 goals and those all came in 10 periods of action. Don't want to lay the juice, but the Over is a good call here for Game 2. The Over is now 12-3-1 in Columbus' last 16 tries as a playoff underdog. Play OVER Columbus-Tampa Bay AAA |
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04-11-19 | Hurricanes v. Capitals UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -102 | 51 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Carolina-Washington (Game 1) The Hurricanes are obviously thrilled to be in the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time in a decade. They had the league's longest postseason drought, which is quite the ignominious distinction. But the Canes also probably wished they had drawn a different first round opponent. Washington not only won the Metropolitan Division for a 4th straight year, they swept Carolina in the regular season, going 4-0 in head to head meetings. Lest we forget that they are the defending Stanley Cup Champs as well. Carolina will try and push the puck and play fast here (like they always do), but we're not sure that'll work out for them. In those four regular season games against Washington, they were held to an average of 27.5 shots per game, which is well below their season average. The last three times these teams have faced off, the game went Under. Carolina scored just four goals in those three games. Capitals goalie Braden Holtby had a great regular season and posted a .947 save percentage across his last five starts. However, if there's something that can keep Carolina in this game and series, it's extraordinary depth on the blue line as well as the goaltending of Petr Mrazek, who had his own strong finish to the regular season with a .942 save percentage his last four starts. The Hurricanes were 7th in the league in goals allowed, giving up only 2.7 per game. Play UNDER Carolina-Washington AAA |
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04-11-19 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 102 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Toronto-Boston Toronto scored 7 runs Tuesday, which may not sound like much, but it was a season-high for them. It also, not shockingly, came against the team which has given up the second most runs in all of baseball, that being Boston. The Red Sox, like the Blue Jays, have had their own offensive woes to start the season. But both teams woes should be cured, at least temporarily, by facing each other. Wednesday was an off-day, but I expect the scoring to resume early and often tonight. You have Aaron Sanchez pitching for the visitors. He has faced two weak offenses so far (Cleveland, Detroit), so tonight will be a test. Sanchez has an ERA north of 4.00 in 19 career starts vs. the Red Sox. Boston will go with Nathan Eovaldi in this spot. While his TSR is 2-0, Eovaldi hasn't really pitched all that well. He's given up 9 runs and 12 hits in 10 innings so far. Going back to the end of last season, the Over is 5-0 his last five starts. Dustin Pedroia is now back to help the Boston offense too. Play OVER Toronto-Boston AAA |
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04-08-19 | A's v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 4-12 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Oakland-Baltimore Both clubs are limping into this series. Oakland just got swept in Houston while Baltimore suffered the same fate over the weekend, at home against the Yankees. The Orioles have lost four straight overall as you have to remember they're likely to be one of the worst teams in all of baseball. The A's have yet to win a game away from home. So something will have to give tonight in Camden Yards. Whomever wins, expect plenty of runs to be scored in this one. In the three games vs. the Yankees, Baltimore pitching conceded 29 runs with their bullpen posting a 14.22 ERA and 2.53 WHIP. Tonight's starter Andrew Cashner has a 5.40 ERA and 1.70 WHIP after two outings. Oakland goes with Marco Estrada, who looked great in his first outing, but not so much the second. Estrada is far from overpowering. In road games, the A's are allowing an average of 6.4 runs. Play OVER Oakland-Baltimore AAA |
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04-07-19 | Marlins v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Miami-Atlanta Playing the Over with these teams did not work out yesterday. Miami was able to snap Atlanta's four-game win streak, prevailing by a final score of 4-2. All of the Marlins came from the long ball as they hit three total, two from Jorge Alfaro including the game winner in the top of the ninth. Reliance on the long ball doesn't seem like a sustainable way to score runs to me though and today Miami will face a pitcher that doesn't give up many. Braves starter Sean Newcomb has not allowed a HR in seven of his last nine starts going back to last year. He also had Miami's number in 2018, going 4-0 against them with a 0.75 ERA in four starts. That's a great sign as is the fact Newcomb didn't allow any runs in four innings in his first start of this season. He may be pitching to keep his spot in the rotation today, so expect a strong outing. Atlanta has not allowed more than four runs in any of its last five games. Miami is going with its own southpaw here in Caleb Smith, who had eight strikeouts in five innings his first start. He allowed just two runs and four hits. We made a mistake taking the Over yesterday, but are fully on board with the Under today. Play UNDER Miami-Atlanta AAA |
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04-06-19 | Marlins v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Miami-Atlanta Atlanta shut Miami out last night, 4-0. It was the Braves fourth straight win and the Marlins fourth straight loss. It was the second straight series opener where the Braves shut their opponent. They beat the Cubs 8-0 on Monday and would go on to score 23 runs in that series. They are now a perfect 4-0 at home following last night's victory. Going back to last year, they've won nine in a row at SunTrust Park and they've also beaten the Marlins nine straight time at home as well. While this looks to be another easy win, and we do expect the Braves to score plenty of runs, look for Miami to cross the plate a good number of times as well. Kyle Wright is making just his second career start today for Atlanta. His first saw him walk five batters in 4 1/3 innings and allow three runs. Some of that was cold weather, but Wright has also yet to prove himself. Atlanta's bullpen hasn't been very good either. Miami's Sandy Alcantara was dominant his first time out, but that was at home. The Over is 8-0 the last eight times the Marlins have faced a team with a winning record on the road. Play OVER Miami-Atlanta AAA |
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04-04-19 | Cavs v. Kings OVER 228 | Top | 104-117 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Cleveland-Sacramento Cleveland has been exceptionally porous on the defensive end of late. The Over is 5-0 their last five games and it doesn't take much digging to understand why that is. They are giving up 122.6 points per game on 55.1% shooting. The last six opponents have all shot better than 50%. The Clippers shot 62.4% against them Saturday, then they gave up 122 points to Phoenix, who shot 54.8%. This is really nothing new. The Cavs have the worst defensive efficiency in the league. Sacramento actually gives up more points per game than Cleveland, so a high scoring game certainly looks to be in the cards here. The Kings, who are trying to finish with a .500 record for the first time in 13 seasons, were shredded for 130 points by Houston two nights ago. The good news is they scored 129 in the first meeting with Cleveland and shot north of 57% from the field. We imagine something similar tonight. The Cavaliers have gone Over their last seven times following a loss. Play OVER Cleveland-Sacramento AAA |
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04-03-19 | Flames v. Ducks OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -123 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Calgary-Anaheim The teams just met Friday with Calgary winning 6-1. While the rematch is Anaheim and the Flames have nothing to really play for, we see it being every bit as high scoring as the last time they played. Calgary may not be quite as high scoring on the road, but they still average a healthy 3.05 goals/game. And while Anaheim is the lowest scoring team in the league, they do score more at home. Each of the Ducks last five games have gone Over. They've scored a total of 18 goals in those five games while also allowing 18. That's 3.5 goals scored and allowed per game. Calgary's last three games have all gone Over. They have scored 18 goals in those three games, an average of six per game. Chalk up another high scoring game tonight. Play OVER Calgary-Anaheim AAA |
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04-03-19 | Cubs v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Cubs-Braves I played the Under on the first game of this series (Monday), which won or pushed depending on whether or not you got 8 or 8.5. But tonight, I'm looking Over with the Cubs and Braves. The teams had off yesterday. Monday was an 8-0 Braves win, their first of the season. The Cubs have given up 8, 11 and 8 runs their last three games, all of which have been losses. Jon Lester starts tonight and while he pitched well on Opening Day, this will be his first time facing the Braves since their renaissance of last season. The Over is 6-0 the last six times Lester has started on five or more days rest. In addition to having given up 27 runs in the last 24 1/3 innings, the Cubs committed six errors on Monday, their first time doing so in a 9-inning game since 1982. Fortunately the offense had scored 28 runs in the first three games before getting stymied Monday. We expect Chicago to bounce back at the plate tonight against Julio Teheran, who allowed three runs in five innings his first start of the year. Play OVER Chicago-Atlanta AAA |
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04-03-19 | Mets v. Marlins UNDER 7 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Mets-Miami With Jacob deGrom pitching, you have to figure Miami is going to struggle to score runs today. Not like they have an impressive offense to begin with. In four of six games so far, they've been held to three runs or less. deGrom should have no problems doing the same. Yes, he actually did go 0-2 vs. the Marlins last season. But 2018 also saw deGrom post the lowest single season ERA (1.70) since the mound was lowered in 1968. His first start of '19 was right in line with where he left off last season. He held Washington scoreless for six frames while striking out 10 batters. Not to be overlooked here is the performance Miami starter Trevor Richards had in his first start of the year. He allowed just one run (on four hits) in six innings of work. The fact the Marlins lost that game 6-1 (to Colorado) was obviously the fault of the bullpen. Richards also shutout the Mets for 6 2/3 innings in his final start last season. This is a game where few runs will be scored. The Mets aren't going to keep averaging more than six runs per game. Play UNDER Mets-Marlins AAA |
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04-03-19 | Orioles v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Baltimore-Toronto Someone break up the Orioles! Last year's worst team has started 4-1 out of the gate with all of those wins coming on the division road and two were as huge underdogs in New York. The last two days have seen the O's record one-run victories in Toronto, 6-5 and then 2-1. Similar to yesterday, we think we're in store for another low-scoring affair Wednesday afternoon. You have to like the way Blue Jays starter Matt Shoemaker pitched last Friday when he threw seven shutout innings of two-hit ball. Really, with the exception of Monday, the entire Blue Jays starting staff has been pretty remarkable. Take away Monday and they were working on a 29-inning scoreless streak until Marcus Stroman gave up a pair of runs in the 6th of yesterday's game. Of course Monday saw an Orioles starter (David Hess) pulled while in the midst of a no-hitter. Nate Karns will "open" today's game for Baltimore as the first of several relievers to get on the mound. All six of Toronto's runs scored in this series have come in the final three innings. For the year, they are batting .018 (1 for 55) in the first three innings. Karns threw two shutout innings the first time he opened this year, against the Yankees. Play UNDER Orioles-Blue Jays AAA |
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04-02-19 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 8-5 | Win | 107 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Arizona-San Diego The Padres are a team we've found success with in the early part of the season, playing them twice and winning both times. But both wins were at the Giants' expense and as they found out (the hard way) last night, Arizona is a much different animal. The Diamondbacks pummeled the Padres yesterday here at Petco, winning 10-3, with much of the damage done against San Diego starter Strahm. Starting pitching had been a strength for the Padres so far this season with today's starter Lauer getting the season off to a strong start with six scoreless innings on Opening Day. Again, facing Arizona is going to be a lot tougher than San Francisco was. In his rookie season (last year), Lauer was hit hard in two games against the Diamondbacks with the Arizona lineup recording a .311 batting average and Lauer ending up with a 1.50 WHIP. It sounds weird to say this, but the Diamondbacks may have to worry about Zack Greinke tonight consider how bad he looked in his first start. Greinke gave up seven runs and four homers against the Dodgers Opening Day. San Diego's offense is much more formidable now than in past years. Play OVER Arizona-San Diego AAA |
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04-01-19 | Bulls v. Knicks OVER 212.5 | Top | 105-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Chicago-New York Not much defense should be expected in this game as the Bulls and Knicks have just two weeks left in what has been a miserable (as expected) season for both. The key will be whether or not they can make some shots. The Knicks are 0-6 straight up and against the spread their last six games and a big reason for that is they've failed to top 100 points four times. But the other two games saw them score 116 and 113 points and we should see something in line with those numbers here. The Bulls have been held to 103 points or fewer in four straight games. All were losses. But the big key here is all of the games in both teams losing streaks have come against playoff teams. Each will find far less resistance at the defensive end tonight. The Over is 4-1-1 in Chicago's last six games vs. sub-.400 teams. Play OVER Chicago-New York AAA |
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04-01-19 | Cubs v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UNDER Cubs-Braves Between these two, the Over is off to a 5-1 start to the season. The lone Under in came in last night's 5-1 loss by the Braves in Philadelphia. Once again on ESPN, we should see Atlanta involved in a low scoring game. The Cubs were unable to overcome a disastrous start from Yu Darvish Sunday and lost 11-10 in Texas. Despite scoring 28 runs in the three games in Arlington, the Cubs still lost the series. But now they return to National League play, which still involves the pitchers coming up to bat and scoring should subside accordingly. This works both ways as not only should the Cubs see their own scoring decline here in Atlanta, the pitching should improve. Kyle Hendricks was very good in 2018 and finished with a 1.52 ERA and 0.85 WHIP his last seven starts. The Under was 22-10-1 in all of his starts last year. Four career appearances against Atlanta have yielded a 2.33 ERA. Sean Newcomb will be on the mound for the Braves, looking to lead his team to its first win of the young season. The bullpen was more of a problem for Atlanta in Philly than were the starters, so a strong outing from Newcomb would go a long way here. Newcomb was stronger in the first half last year, including a quality effort against these Cubs. The Under is 6-2-1 the last nine times Newcomb has started a series opener. Play UNDER Chicago-Atlanta AAA |
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04-01-19 | Mets v. Marlins UNDER 8 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER on NY Mets-Miami The Mets had a chance to sweep the Nationals yesterday, which would have been quite the statement to open the season. But a late rally ultimately fell short as they lost in walkoff fashion. Still, you have to like what you've seen from this club so far. Miami is going to struggle massively this season in a NL East where the other four teams are all thinking playoffs. That said, winning the last two games while holding the Rockies to just three runs is impressive. We look for this game to be low-scoring. These division foes ended last season with a three-game series against one another and the Mets scored a total of three runs. They also shut Miami out in two of the three games. One of those games was started by Steven Matz, who tossed six innings of three-hit ball. Matz posted a 1.53 ERA in three starts vs. Miami last season. Really, the only problem he had in a strong 2018 (3.97 ERA) was lack of run support. That's how he ended up with no wins in his final seven starts despite a 2.29 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. The Mets scored three runs or less 13 times for Matz last season. It's early, but the Marlins are batting just .216 so far. But starter Caleb Smith should keep them in this one as he had a 3.09 ERA in a couple of starts vs. NY last year. Play UNDER NY Mets-Miami AAA |