Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-19-21 | Astros v. Royals OVER 7 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER It would truly be a shocking result if the Royals were to sweep this series. They’ve kept the Astros at bay, winning 7-6, 3-1 and 3-2 in the first three games. Houston (70-50) still leads the AL West by 2.5 games as they are lucky Oakland is also on a four-game losing streak. Kansas City (52-67) remains in last in the Central, although they do now have a winning record at home. Win or lose, you’ve got to think the Astros’ offense gets it going today. They are #1 in the majors in runs/game. Their scoring average on the road, 5.5 runs/game, is higher than it is at home. They will face Mike Minor Thursday. Minor isn’t very good; he has a 5.35 ERA in 24 starts. He also has a 4.29 ERA in 16 career appearances vs. the Astros. Over his last three starts, Minor has given up six home runs. Kansas City should score too though. Houston’s Luis Garcia has a 4.93 ERA on the road. His last start of July and first start of August were both on the road. Both times he allowed at least five runs and didn’t make it through the fifth inning. Our view is that today’s game will be more like the opener (7-6) than either of the last two games. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-18-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 7 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER This total seems to have gotten a bit too low. Sure, the Brewers and Cardinals played to a 2-0 final last night and we’ve got two starting pitchers in good form set to go tonight. But Milwaukee, who now has 41 road wins, should have scored a lot more in yesterday’s game. They collected 14 hits on Tuesday. Scoring only two runs in a game where you have 14 hits is quite rare. The team went 3 for 15 when they had runners in scoring position. St. Louis wasn’t any better, going 0 for 5 in that situation. Some timely hitting would go a long way today and that’s what we expect. Jack Flaherty has a 5.21 ERA in his career vs. Milwaukee. So history says he will struggle in this spot. It was only three starts ago that Flaherty was charged with seven runs, four of them unearned, in a loss against the White Sox. The Brewers score 5.0 runs/game away from home, a big reason for their success there. As for Freddy Peralta, who starts tonight for the Brewers, there can be no denying what a great year he is having. But it won’t take much to send this one Over. The Cardinals scored 29 runs in the four games previous to yesterday’s loss. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-15-21 | Dodgers v. Mets UNDER 8 | Top | 14-4 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 9* on UNDER The game went 10 innings last night, but there were still only three runs scored on eight hits. The Dodgers now can sweep the Mets Sunday night on ESPN. It’s been a pair of one-run victories for Los Angeles so far, 6-5 and 2-1. We think tonight’s game - in terms of number of runs scored - will mirror what happened Saturday. Mainly because we have an outstanding pitching matchup. Max Scherzer will make his third start for the Dodgers since being traded from Washington. Scherzer was limited to 3.3 innings in his last start because of rain. He didn’t give up any runs though. That was after keeping Houston to two runs in seven innings in his Dodgers debut. In 10.3 innings pitched for his new team, Scherzer has 16 strikeouts. This is someone with a 2.67 ERA and 0.89 WHIP for the season. Carlos Carrasco is the Mets starter for Sunday. This will be his fourth appearance since starting the year on the DL. Carrasco is definitely better than what he’s shown thus far in limited work. You also have to consider this game taking place at Citi Field. No park has been lower scoring in 2021. The Mets and their opponents have combined to average just 6.6 runs/game here. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-15-21 | Reds v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER So far, this series has been an exchange of 6-1 victories. Cincinnati drew first blood on Friday. Then Philadelphia paid them back on Saturday. With the Reds, there’s a big difference in how many total runs per game are scored when they are at home (11.0) vs. the road (8.8). The Phillies only put 4.2 runs/game at home. Today’s game could very well be more competitive than the previous two, but we believe it will again be low-scoring. Aaron Nola pitching for the home team should play a major role in today’s game staying Under. Nola has a 2.97 ERA and 0.96 WHIP at home. He threw four shutout innings against the Dodgers on Tuesday. That was at home. Before that, Nola’s previous home start saw him finish one out shy of a complete game four-hitter (only allowed one run). Today Nola is opposed by Sonny Gray. Gray has been effective in two of his last three starts. The last one, he gave up just two runs and three hits. The Under has hit seven straight times when these teams play in Philadelphia. The Reds are 40-18-3 Under L61 games vs. the NL East. The Phillies are 7-0-1 Under their last eight games. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-14-21 | Padres v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 101 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER San Diego’s penchant for “playing down” to their level of competition reared its ugly head again last night as they fell 3-2 to Arizona. The Diamondbacks have won a league-low 37 times in 2021. But six of those wins have been at the Padres’ expense. That’s a really high percentage considering the Padres still have to be considered a top 10 team and figure to make the Wild Card Game. San Diego probably likes its chances tonight with Joe Musgrove starting. Musgrove’s last four starts have spanned 25 innings and he’s given up four runs. But what’s pretty shocking is how the Padres are just 12-10 in Musgrove starts. Ten times they’ve gone out and scored three runs or less in games he has started. So our call here is for the Under to hit. Arizona is simply not much of a threat to score many runs in this game. The wildcard is Tyler Gilbert, making his big league debut as a starter. San Diego has only scored five runs in the last three games. So look for Gilbert to surprise in this spot. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-13-21 | Toronto v. Winnipeg UNDER 47.5 | Top | 7-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Toronto and Winnipeg each claimed victory in Week 1. The Argos were narrow 23-20 winners at Calgary, but that’s a win they’ll take as they were 6.5-point underdogs on the road. They outgained the Stampeders 410-353. After an impressive start to that game, the Argos needed to mount a comeback and they outscored the Stamps 11-3 in the fourth quarter. They did not find the end zone in the second or third quarters. Winnipeg’s win last week was less thrilling as they stymied Hamilton on their way to a 19-6 triumph. The Bombers defense allowed less than 300 total yards and shut the Ti-Cats out over the last three quarters. Scoring has been down league-wide thus far with the first five CFL games seeing less than 40 points/game scored. This one should follow the trend as the Argos will struggle to move the ball. The Over is 8-0 the last eight times these teams have played. That’s due to end, right? Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-13-21 | Cardinals v. Royals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the UNDER The only interleague series on tap for this weekend is the “I-70” rivalry between the Cardinals and Royals. It takes place in Kansas City, so the Cardinals will be forced to use the designated hitter. Don’t fall into the trap of thinking that will necessarily lead to an increase in scoring, however. When the Cardinals came to Kauffman Stadium last year, they averaged just 3.0 runs/contest. They are the 4th lowest scoring team from the National League. Offensively, Kansas City ranks near the bottom of the American League. We like the fact Jack Flaherty is going to start today for St. Louis. He is 3-0 all-time vs. the Royals. In those three starts, he has a 0.95 ERA. He didn’t pitch in last week’s series where the Cardinals held the Royals to just two runs in two of three games. The Royals also scored two runs yesterday. St. Louis’ only loss in its last six games was the finale of the last series with KC, a game that had a long rain delay. They just swept the Pirates and allowed one run in the first two games of that three-game series. All we need is Mike Minor to just do his job as the Royals starter. His last four starts have all gone Under. None of the games have had more than seven runs scored. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-12-21 | Washington Football Team v. Patriots UNDER 36.5 | Top | 13-22 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER We’ve seen this total move quite a bit over the course of the week. We’re not exactly entirely sure WHY though. Both teams field good defenses and it’s not like these preseason games see a ton of scoring. Especially the first one. Last week’s Hall of Fame Game saw just 19 points scored between the teams. It was 3-0 at halftime. There are open QB competitions for the starting jobs with both teams. But that doesn’t mean you should expect a “shootout” tonight. Cam Newton and Mac Jones are both expected to see time for the Patriots. Jones is a rookie and this will be his first taste of NFL action. Newton’s health is always a concern, so he’ll be dialing it back as a runner. The Patriots are going to be practicing against the Eagles next Monday and Tuesday, so they may throw the towel in during the second half here. The Hunter Henry injury will probably have Coach Belichick even more on edge when it comes to pulling starters. The Football Team did not have a good offense in 2020 and the available names at quarterback are not inspiring. Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is 38, is probably going to be their Week 1 starter. With his age, he isn’t gonna play much tonight. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-12-21 | Cardinals v. Pirates UNDER 9 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 60 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER It seems like you can always count on the Pirates not to score many runs. Over the course of a seven-game losing streak, they have put up 12 runs total. Twice they’ve been shutout. One of those two times was yesterday, 4-0 by the Cardinals. Pittsburgh was already the lowest scoring team in baseball prior to the losing streak. Now the gap between them and the second lowest scoring team has gotten even more severe. Texas and the Mets are the only teams that haven't put up at least 50 more runs than the Pirates this year. So when playing the total with this team, Under has to be your natural reaction. They have just three hits in this series with the Cardinals! Wade LeBlanc, a lefty that has put up good numbers of late for St. Louis, is who they will face today. LeBlanc has a 2.94 ERA his last seven starts and is coming off a hard-luck no decision against Atlanta. He allowed only two runs and three hits in six innings, a game the Cardinals ultimately lost 8-4. The Cardinals aren’t all that high scoring either. They are the NL’s third lowest scoring team. It’s been a rough ride of late for the Pirates JT Brubaker. However, he did pitch very well in his last home start, giving up just one run and three hits. Throw in the fact this is a day game and you’ve gotta go Under. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-11-21 | Marlins v. Padres UNDER 8 | Top | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER It’s been a couple Overs to start this series. San Diego has won the two games by scores of 8-3 and 6-5. Miami has lost five in a row overall. In all five losses, the Over has hit. The Over is 8-1 in Miami’s last nine games. The Over is 8-1-1 in the Padres' last 10 games. So it does seem reasonable to expect another 11-run game. Neither of the two starters for today’s game have been very good of late either. But we have some faith in Miami’s Sandy Alcantara to bounce back from an absolutely hideous showing at Colorado. He was charged with 10 runs. Prior to that, he’d allowed zero runs in seven innings against the Yankees. Fernando Tatis will again not be on the Padres’ lineup card. Alcantara has far more good starts than bad ones this year. The Under is 14-7 in all Alcantara starts. But the thing is, he likely can’t count on much run support today. Miami is not a team that scores a ton on the road. Visitors to Petco Park only average 3.7 runs/contest. Ryan Weathers threw four shutout innings for the Padres against the Marlins just last month. His last two outings didn’t go well, but he’s not facing those teams today. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-10-21 | Dodgers v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Coming off last year’s World Series win, the Dodgers have once again been one of the best teams this year. But the Phillies are the hottest team in August with a perfect 8-0 mark. These teams collide for three games starting Tuesday. We like the opener to go Over the total. The Dodgers are the highest scoring National League team. So we know we can count on them for five or more runs. They average 5.4 per game on the road and have put up an average of 6.3 the last seven games overall. Philadelphia - even after a low-scoring series with the Mets where every game went Under - have scored 55 runs during their win streak. That’s an average of nearly seven runs/game. We know Max Scherzer is a very good starting pitcher and obviously the Dodgers do too (why they traded for him!) but four of his last five starts have gone Over including his Dodgers debut. He’s allowed at least one homer in all five starts. Aaron Nola has seen four of his last six starts go Over. The last one saw him give up five runs. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-09-21 | Marlins v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Yesterday’s 2-0 win for the Padres was the lowest scoring game they’ve been involved in since the second half of the season began. There had been a couple times they’d been held to one run, but two total runs in the game was a new low. You would think they figure to do well in this home series against Miami. But the Padres do have a penchant for dropping games to bad teams. They split a four game series with the Marlins a couple weeks ago. We are confident in Joe Musgrove getting the job done, however. In his previous three starts, Musgrove has allowed only three runs in 19 innings. His ERA and WHIP for the year currently stand at 3.07 and 1.01. The numbers get even better at home. But his team start record of 11-10 shows Musgrove doesn’t always get run support. The Marlins’ pitching staff is top six in the National League for least amount of runs allowed. (San Diego is 5th). Thompson is making his 10th start for the Marlins tonight. The Under is 7-2 with him on the mound so far. He has a 2.74 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, very comparable numbers to the more heralded Musgrove. After being swept in Colorado over the weekend, Miami is going to be desperate for a win here. The problem is they only score 3.9 runs/game. This is going to be a low-scoring affair. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-08-21 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER We are looking to avenge one of the two losses we’ve suffered over the last five days (12-2 overall run). We had the Over in the first game between the Mets and Phillies, which saw the latter win 4-2 to take over first place in the NL East. In that game, the Mets were 1 for 8 with runners in scoring position. They were no better in that situation last night, going 0 for 5, and they didn’t even score a run until the ninth inning. It was a 5-3 loss this time. The Phillies have won seven in a row. They scored four of their runs in one big inning last night. We’d seen plenty of offense from them before this series got underway as they had scored 43 runs in five games. We think it is likely that they will have their highest scoring effort of this series today. They face Taijuan Walker, whose last six starts have all gone Over for the Mets. The last four have seen Walker pitch poorly. He’s given up 21 runs in his last 15 innings. Not good. For the Phillies, Zack Wheeler has allowed four or more runs in three of his last five starts. The teams are somewhat due to play a high-scoring game. Mets’ road games are definitely higher scoring than their home games. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-08-21 | Mariners v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 102 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER One could make the argument that - with five one-run losses over the last week - the Mariners have gotten a taste of their own medicine. Prior to those five losses, the team had been 23-8 in one-run games, which is some pretty darn good fortune. But the Mariners have had no luck this weekend in Yankees Stadium where they’ve lost the first three games of the series. Yesterday’s 5-4 loss was probably the most painful as they blew a 4-1 lead. The Yankees scored the game-winning run on a double play. Earlier in the inning, they capitalized on a three-base error. Winners of 10 of their last 12 games, the Yankees are playing their best baseball of the season right now. The odds have curiously swung towards Seattle for Sunday, so we will stay away from rendering a decision on who is going to win. But look for it to be a clean sweep with the Under in this series. The first three games have seen only eight, five and nine runs scored. Seattle has the lowest batting average in the majors while New York has scored the fourth fewest number of runs in the American League. Only the three last place teams have scored less. Kikuchi is a really solid starter for the Mariners. Of the two runs he allowed in his last start, only one was “earned.” Gil’s first career start for the Yankees couldn’t have gone much better. He didn’t allow a run in six innings. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-07-21 | Tigers v. Indians UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER We also like this Tigers-Indians matchup to stay Under the total. We already went through Cleveland’s head to head domination of Detroit In the analysis for the pick on the side. Also know that the Tigers have scored no more than three runs six of the last 10 times they’ve faced Cleveland. The Tigers’ last eight games have all stayed Under with no more than nine combined runs scored in any of them. As we stated in the other writeup, Cleveland rookie Eli Morgan is likely to continue a strong stretch of starts today. But the Indians probably won’t match their scoring from yesterday. They only average 3.8 runs/contest when facing a left-handed starter. Detroit’s Tyler Alexander is a lefty. We think he can limit the damage somewhat, though the Indians will still win this one. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-07-21 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 10.5 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Reds pummelled the Pirates last night, winning 10-0. It was 7-0 after the first innings. Cincinnati is 7-1 vs. Pittsburgh this year, 5-0 at home. The first two games of this series have seen 11 and 10 runs scored. We should be in for another high-scoring affair Saturday night. Neither starter is anything to write home about. Pittsburgh’s Mitch Keller has been getting shelled recently. He’s allowed four runs in back to back starts. Neither start went more than five innings. Cincinnati’s Gutierrez has a 7.17 ERA at home. Truthfully, none of the Reds starters have done very well at Great American Ballpark this year. Opponents have averaged 5.5 runs/contest here. So the Pirates, weak as they may be offensively, should at least put SOME runs on the board Saturday. Of course, the Reds will too. They average the same number of runs/contest that they allow at home. In eight games vs. the Pirates this year, the Reds have scored 68 times. That includes 16 runs in the first two innings of the last two games. In their last 10 games, the Reds have scored six or more runs eight different times. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-06-21 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
full analysis to follow |
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08-06-21 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER This is a battle for first place in the NL East. The Mets have held the top spot for a long time now, but their lead is now down to a half game. The Phillies swept their last series, winning all four games in Washington. The Mets weren’t nearly as successful in Miami where they lost two of three. Philadelphia did have to come from behind yesterday, scoring four runs in the top of the ninth, but they’ll take a win anyway they can get it. They’ve won five in a row now and all five of those games also went Over. The Mets had a three-game Over run stopped yesterday in a 4-2 loss where they left 15 runners on base. A big key here is how Mets’ road games tend to see a lot more scoring than their home games. It’s a difference of 2.8 more runs/game on the road. The Phillies have scored 43 runs during their five-game win streak. So we’ve got no worries with them. A pitching matchup of Stroman vs. Gibson might give you some pause about betting the Over here, but Stroman did allow four runs in his most recent start. Gibson is making his second start since coming over from Texas and the National League remains an unfamiliar scene. The two previous times Gibson has faced the Mets have resulted in a 6.75 ERA. The Over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Philadelphia. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-05-21 | Angels v. Rangers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER When Texas won the first game of this series, they found themselves on a three-game win streak. That was their longest win streak in over a month and just the fifth win streak of that length all season. So a return to poor form was all but assured and wouldn’t you know - the Rangers have lost two straight to the Angels. In doing so, they’ve scored only four runs. They lost 11-3 on Tuesday while last night was a lot closer at 2-1. This team just can’t hit. They came into yesterday with a .214 batting average over the last week. In addition to being the lowest scoring team in the American League, the Rangers are either last or next to last in batting average, OPS, OBP and slugging. So don’t worry about them scoring many runs in today’s matinee. Angels starter Dylan Bundy has pitched well vs. Texas in his career. He’s made 10 appearances against them and gone 5-2 with a 3.51 ERA. But the road team hasn’t done much scoring as of late either. In six of the last seven games, Los Angeles has not scored more than three runs. Five times they’ve scored two or less. Spencer Howard is making his Rangers debut today after being traded over from the Phillies. Howard was the Phillies’ #1 pitching prospect at the start of this season. Given how little the Angels have been scoring as of late (save for Tuesday), Howard should do fine here. The Angels are 10-1 Under in their past 11 road games. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-04-21 | Astros v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Astros and Dodgers are two of baseball's best. They are also the two highest scoring teams. Houston averages 5.5 runs/game. Los Angeles averages 5.2. Now last night’s game was low-scoring, a 3-0 win by the Astros. But you should expect something different tonight. Though they are being forced to send the pitcher up to bat here, the Astros did just fine under the same circumstances in their last series. Facing San Francisco, who has permitted the least number of runs in MLB in 2021, they still scored an average of six runs/game. They average 5.8/game on the road, which is #1 in baseball. The Dodgers scored 13 times in a win Sunday over Arizona. So you should expect them to bounce back from just their fourth shutout loss of the season. Max Scherzer is making his Dodgers’ debut tonight. It will be interesting to see if there is an adjustment period. He arrives in LA with a 6.48 ERA in his last three starts. Even worse is Astros’ starter Jake Odorizzi as he has a 6.75 ERA his last three starts. Odorizzi’s last three starts have all gone Over. The Over is 35-17-5 when the Dodgers are coming off a loss. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-04-21 | Twins v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Twins and Reds will wrap up this very brief two-game series in an early afternoon affair. Last night saw the visitors prevail 7-5 as Jorge Polanco delivered a three-run homer in the top of the ninth. Minnesota, despite not playing with a DH, probably should have scored even more runs. But they were only 3 for 15 with runners in scoring position in the game. Still, the Over hit and high-scoring games at Great American Ballpark are nothing new. On average, Reds’ home games see 11.0 runs scored. They score 5.4 runs/contest themselves while giving up 5.6. No other park sees a higher average of runs/game scored, not even Coors Field. We look for the deluge of runs to continue on Getaway Day. Luis Castillo has engineered a remarkable turnaround for the Reds with a 1.95 ERA since June 1st. He had started the 2021 season with a 1-10 team start record. But two career starts vs. the Reds have brought Castillo a 16.20 ERA. Don’t be surprised if the Twins get to him. Starting here for the Twins will be Charlie Barnes. It’s just his second career big league start. The Over is 63-39-5 in all Twins’ games this year. That’s the highest Over percentage in baseball. Cincinnati isn’t far behind, in fifth place. The Over is 33-17-3 in Twins’ road games and 29-10-1 if they are the underdog, which is the case this afternoon. Six of their last seven games have gone Over. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-02-21 | Phillies v. Nationals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER These teams split a four-game series last week. The two games that the Phillies won also went Over. The two games the Nationals won both stayed Under. Washington followed that up by winning two of three from the Cubs with 7, 9 and 11 total runs being scored in those games. The Phillies followed up by losing two of three to the Pirates. They did score 15 runs in a win Sunday. But that was after scoring just two runs in the two previous games. The two starters for Monday have a combined one start between them in 2021. It comes from Washington’s Josiah Gray and that one start wasn’t even with his current team. Gray was just acquired from the Dodgers in a trade. He allowed two runs in four innings last week in what was his only start for his former team. He also made one relief appearance five days earlier. Gray is now the top pitching prospect in the Nationals organization. They must like him because he came over in the Scherzer/Turner deal. We believe he will pitch well tonight. Ranger Suarez is making his first start since 2018 for the Phillies. He’d recently been serving as the team’s closer. He’s made 27 appearances this year and has given up just nine runs (four of them unearned) and 21 hits. The Under is on a 21-10-3 run when these NL East teams meet. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-01-21 | A's v. Angels UNDER 9.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER To say runs have been “scarce” in this series would be an understatement. The A’s and Angels have played three games this weekend. A grand total of seven runs have been scored between them. The first six all came from Oakland as they won 4-0 on Thursday and 2-0 on Friday. Then the scoring decreased to the lowest point possible with the Angels winning 1-0 yesterday. Will scoring go up a bit today? Most likely. But we still don’t see more than nine runs being scored in this game. There is an “unknown factor” on the mound Sunday as Reid Detmers makes his major league debut for Los Angeles and Daulton Jefferies makes only his second career big league start for Oakland. Jefferies prior start at this level came last year. He got the call up from Triple A Las Vegas due to an injury to James Kaprielian. The Angels scored only two runs on A’s pitching in five July meetings. Oakland scored 16 runs in those five games, which sounds like a lot compared to what LA did, but it’s really not that much. Detmers looked good in both Double-A and Triple-A this year and has improved his fastball velocity. He had 106 strikeouts in 60 innings. The Under is 6-0 in the A’s last six Sunday games. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-31-21 | Reds v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER Mets’ home games have been REALLY low scoring in 2021. You’re looking at just 6.2 total runs being scored per contest. Last night was a little higher scoring than usual though as the Reds spoiled the season debut of Carlos Carrasco. Much of the way it looked like your typical game at Citi Field as the Reds took a 3-1 lead into the ninth. But then the scoring doubled in the final inning and the game ended up 6-2. Joey Votto has homered in seven straight games for Cincinnati. The Reds are averaging 6.3 runs over their last seven games and have scored at least five times in eight straight games. Rich Hill, recently acquired in a trade with Tampa Bay, will be making his second start as a Met on Saturday. The first went okay as he permitted three runs in five innings. The Mets won the game 5-4, which would be enough runs to cash an Over today. The Reds, whose pitching is normally not good, will send out Wade Miley. Don’t be fooled by his ERA as he’s actually given up 21 hits in his last three starts as well as 10 walks. None of the Reds last six games have stayed Under (two have pushed). Play on OVER AAA |
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07-30-21 | Rockies v. Padres UNDER 8 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Heading into yesterday, both these teams were coming off series where every game went Over. But those series were against American League opponents. In the case of Colorado, they were on the road, so they got to play with a DH. Yesterday’s 3-0 win by the Padres marked a return to form for both teams. When the Rockies are on the road and NOT getting to use a DH, the results at the plate are typically pretty dire. They are putting up just 3.1 runs/contest away from Coors Field this year. As a team, they have hit .210 in those games. That is clearly the predominant reason for their 11-39 road record. As for San Diego, shutting out the Rockies yesterday was not all that special. Visitors are putting up only 3.7 runs/contest at Petco Park this season. In their last four games here, the Rockies have scored a total of eight times. They’ve actually won two of those four games though as the Padres have also scored a total of eight times. The Under is 4-0 in those four games obviously and you should expect it to come in again tonight. Jon Gray has had a nice six-start stretch for Colorado. One of those six starts saw him limit San Diego to one run and three hits in six innings. Gray has a 2.99 career ERA vs. SD and has limited them to a .227 average this season. Ryan Weathers opposed Gray back on July 11th and that ended up being a 3-1 final. Weathers again opposes Gray today. He’s since thrown four shutout innings vs. Miami on 7/24. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-30-21 | Orioles v. Tigers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER After scoring twice in the first inning last night, Detroit never looked back and ended up beating Baltimore 6-2. The Tigers have now won three in a row and are within five games of .500. The Orioles are 31 games below the Mendoza line and simply playing out the string. They had won four of five coming into this series, but all of those games were against National League teams and at home. They’ve given up a lot of runs in 2021, more than any other AL team in fact, but Detroit isn’t likely to score more than they did here last night. Matt Harvey, believe it or not, has been pretty good for B-more of late. He’s allowed no runs in his last two starts, both of which were six-inning efforts. He’s only allowed four hits and one walk! Skubal will pitch tonight for the Tigers and he’s got a 0.94 WHIP his last three starts. The Orioles got just 29 at-bats last night (which is two more than the minimum) and had only four hits. The last time Skubal pitched at home, he allowed one run in six innings. His last three starts have all gone Under and that doesn’t even count a start here at home on 6/27 when he held Houston (MLB’s highest scoring team) to one hit in seven innings. The Under is on a 7-3-1 run for the Tigers if they scored 5 or more runs in the last game. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-29-21 | Yankees v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-14 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Both games in this series have gone Under as have the Yankees' last six games overall and the Rays’ last four. In the six game stretch for New York, they have never scored more than four runs. As we’ve previously talked about (we had the Under in Tuesday’s game), NY is one of the lowest scoring clubs in the American League. Only Texas has scored less runs over the duration of the season. Tampa Bay has scored a combined six runs in the last three games. They had only three hits Wednesday in a game that was 1-1 heading into the 10th. (Yankees won 3-1). Gerrit Cole will be starting Thursday’s game. We can probably count on him keeping the Rays in check based on a 2.74 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Over his last three starts, Cole has 31 strikeouts and has allowed just four runs in 20 innings. One of those was a complete game shutout at Houston. Back on May 12th, Cole didn’t allow any runs when he faced the Rays, limiting them to just three hits in eight innings. Yesterday the Rays had just four at-bats with runners in scoring position. It’s probably up to Luis Patino to keep Tampa Bay in this game. Fortunately for him and the Rays, the game is at home. In three previous home starts, Patino’s ERA is 1.04. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-28-21 | Braves v. Mets UNDER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Over their last six games, Atlanta has scored two or less runs four times. They won just one of those games. There have also been two games where they scored 12 and 15 times. The 12 came last night, quadrupling the number of runs scored from the previous three games combined. They played a doubleheader against the Mets on Monday. Those games ended up being 2-0 in favor of Atlanta and 1-0 in favor of the Mets. While doubleheader games are only now seven innings, we also know that Mets’ home games on average are very low scoring. This was discussed in our 10* Total of the Week release on Monday. They are putting up only 3.5 runs/contest, but allow only 2.7. This Tylor Megill has been a bit of a revelation in the starting rotation. In six starts he has a 2.10 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. He has a 12-inning scoreless streak going and has allowed only two runs total in his last four starts. So the Braves offensive numbers should nosedive tonight. Remember they lost Ronald Acuna Jr for the year. The Mets don’t score much either and Max Fried has a 2.80 ERA in 15 career starts against them. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-28-21 | A's v. Padres UNDER 8.5 | Top | 10-4 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8 * on UNDER The Padres were able to beat the Athletics 7-4 on Tuesday. The series wraps up this afternoon and we think this matinee will be a lower-scoring game compared to the opener. The home team used a 5-run fifth inning to get the ‘W’ yesterday. Getting another big inning like that will be much more difficult here as they face Sean Manaea. The Under is 7-1-1 in Manaea road starts and he’s put together a 2.94 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in those nine games. His season-long numbers got even better after his last start where he struck out 13 and gave up just one run on three hits. Oakland won that game 4-1 over Seattle. That’s also the last time they won a game. Four straight losses have seen them score just 14 runs. They have scored no more than four times in eight of their last nine games. The struggles at the plate are likely to continue as they come up to bat today without the DH. San Diego is allowing just 3.6 runs/contest at home. They’ve got Blake Snell going and he’s 6-1 at Petco Park with a 1.43 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Six of those seven starts have stayed Under. Snell also allowed just one run and three hits in his last start. If there is a saving grace for Oakland here it’s that they only give up 3.8 runs/contest on the road. The Under is 13-3 if they allowed five or more runs in the last game. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-27-21 | Rockies v. Angels UNDER 9 | Top | 12-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Colorado simply can’t score (or win) on the road. It’s really gotten embarrassing. Yesterday’s 6-2 loss in Anaheim was an all-too familiar result for Rockies fans, whose team is 10-37 away from home where it averages 2.9 runs/game. The struggles outside Coors Field are nothing new for the franchise, but this season seems to be a new low. We have no reason to expect they’ll score many runs tonight either. They have not scored more than three times in six of the last seven road games. They have crossed the plate only four times in the last three. But maybe Austin Gomber can keep them in the game Tuesday. Gomber has pitched very well this season as he has a 2.31 ERA and 0.74 WHIP in his previous seven starts. He was 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in June. He’s made only one start this month because of forearm tightness. That one start did see him allow three solo shots. But those were the only runs he allowed. Jose Suarez is making his 4th start for the Angels here. The previous three all stayed Under. The Under is 20-7 in the Rockies’ last 27 games. Two southpaws going in an interleague game should equal a low-scoring output. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-27-21 | Yankees v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The AL East is the only division where four teams have won at least 51% of their games. Tampa Bay is 60-40 and sitting in second place, 1.5 games behind Boston. They’ve allowed fewer runs than all their division rivals. The Yankees are tied (with Baltimore) for last in the division in runs scored. There’s only one team in the whole American League that has scored less runs than New York and that’s Texas. Similarly, there’s only one team in the whole AL that’s allowed fewer runs than the Rays and that’s the White Sox. The Yankees have gone Under in four straight, scoring all of 14 runs in those games. The number of runs allowed per game at home by the Rays is only 3.2 with the opponents batting average just .207. While this sounds like a big edge going to the Rays tonight, Jordan Montgomery figures to keep the visitors alive. The Yankees’ left-hander has a 2.94 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in his last three starts. The Under is 3-0. He’s given up no more than three runs in 10 of his last 11 starts. For the Rays, Shane McClanahan has allowed only one run in back to back starts. He’s given up no more than three runs in 12 of his 14 starts this year. Look for this to be a low-scoring affair. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-26-21 | Braves v. Mets UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The first game of today’s doubleheader between the Braves and Mets figures to be a pretty low-scoring affair. Remember that we’re playing only just seven innings here, which is why the total is so “low.” The Mets have the division lead and are up by five games over Atlanta coming into today. The weekend saw the NL East leaders take two of three from Toronto while the Braves split a four-game series in Philadelphia. Atlanta has alternated wins and losses since the break, going 4-5 overall. They lost 2-1 Sunday, marking the fourth time in six games they failed to score more than two runs. Scoring more than two in this first game might prove difficult as they are set to face Marcus Stroman, who threw eight shutout innings in his last start, which was against a Reds lineup that is pretty strong. Stroman allowed only one hit for the game. There have been only five times this season where Stroman allowed more than three runs and this game will be shorter than usual. Three of the five times he allowed more than three runners to score, runs were unearned. Mets’ home games average just 6.1 total runs. The Under is 7-1 in Stroman home starts. Kyle Muller has a 2.41 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in four starts for Atlanta, so look for a low-scoring game all-around. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-25-21 | Pirates v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 101 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER San Francisco is looking to avoid what would be a very surprising sweep on Sunday. It’s not just that they are at home and have the best win percentage in baseball. What makes the results of the last two days truly shocking is that they have lost to the Pirates, who have the fourth worst win percentage in all of baseball. A 10-2 score on Saturday caught us off-guard. Pittsburgh pounded out a season-high 16 hits and was one run away from matching a season high. It certainly stands to reason they’ll do worse at the plate today. The Bucs have scored the fewest number of runs in MLB. The Giants have given up the fewest number of runs per game. We will put our trust in Alex Wood today. Wood is unbeaten his past seven starts and he’s allowed a total of eight runs in the last four. He’s given up just one home run in those four starts. That’s one half of the equation. The other half is Pirates starter JT Brubaker keeping the Giants offense in check. We think that will happen too, even though Brubaker has struggled a bit recently. The Giants have gone five straight games with nine or fewer hits and they are 8-2 Under after scoring two runs or less the previous day. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-24-21 | Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 9 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER If you haven’t been paying close attention, the Rockies’ record against the Dodgers this year is as poor as you’d expect it to be. It’s 3-8 and that’s after a 9-6 win yesterday, a game that went 10 innings. The Dodgers’ bullpen has seemingly become a bit of an issue as it gave up six runs in the last three innings yesterday, three of them in the 10th. The Dodgers are now 1-10 in extra innings this year. That means 58-30 if they wrap things up in the usual nine. They probably will do that today. It is a three-game losing streak with blown save opportunities in every game. But Colorado is just not a good road team. Yesterday was only the 10th road win of the season. They are 2-14 at +175 or higher. No, we aren’t playing the money line though. Take the Under in this one as Tony Gonsolin (2.80 ERA in seven starts) should have no problem taking care of a Colorado lineup that is averaging 3.0 runs on the road. The Dodgers are facing Kyle Freeland whose last five starts have all gone Under. The last one was vs. the Dodgers and he only gave up three runs in six innings. Those last five starts have seen him allow only seven runs in 28 innings. Expect a low-scoring affair tonight at Chavez Ravine. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-24-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Red Sox season-long domination of the Yankees continued Friday night with a 6-2 win at Fenway Park. Boston is now 9-2 overall vs. their hated rival in 2021, 5-0 at home. This after going 6-23 against them the previous two years. This afternoon they will face Jameson Taillon for the third time. The last one did not go well as Taillon held them to just four hits in 5.3 innings and did not give up a run. Taillon has been much better recently with a 1.47 ERA in his last three starts. But he’s still averaging fewer than five innings per outing this season. He has a 7.20 ERA on the road where all seven starts have gone Over the total. The Red Sox offense has been one of the big surprises in baseball this season, averaging 5.1 runs/game and 5.4 at Fenway. We look for them to have a lot more success facing Taillon today than they did last weekend. Nathan Eovaldi is starting for Boston on Saturday. This will be the fourth time he’s faced New York in 2021, all of the starts coming since June 4th. So the Yankees definitely know him well. They’ve had very little success vs. Eovaldi mind you, but we think they’ll score enough to help get this one Over the number. The Over is 13-6-1 the past 20 times NY has been a dog. Play on OVER AAA |
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07-23-21 | A's v. Mariners OVER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Yes, we took the Under in last night’s A’s-Mariners contest and won. We cited Seattle’s really awful offensive numbers at home. Those haven’t changed, but we’ll be switching course to the Over for tonight’s game. The number is low, so it won’t take much. Yusei Kikuchi is coming off back to back rough starts for Seattle where he’s given up 12 runs in 10 innings. Oakland’s last five games have gone Under as have the last three starts by Frankie Montas. So we’re probably looking at a situation where they are due for a high scoring game. They are a higher scoring team on the road. Montas’ ERA is still 4.34 for the year. The A’s have scored at least four runs in each of their last five games vs. the Mariners. So we can count on their offense to get the job done. The Over is 12-4 the last 16 times Seattle has been off a loss, so maybe we should count on theirs too? Play on OVER AAA |
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07-23-21 | Cardinals v. Reds UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER The last time the Cardinals and Reds hooked up, the latter swept a four-game series in St. Louis. The previous series between them, also in St. Louis, was a three-game sweep for the home team. Now they meet in Cincinnati. The Reds have lost five of six games since the All Star Break. St. Louis has won five of its last six. The last two Cardinals wins were over the Cubs, both 3-2 finals. The Reds were shut out in their last game, 7-0 by the Mets on Wednesday. They finished with just one hit and two base runners for the game. Thus, we are looking for this game to be a low-scoring affair. Reds’ home games have been high scoring this year, but St. Louis comes in hitting only .219 in road games. They had just five hits in yesterday’s win. Tyler Mahle has done well in two prior starts vs. the Cardinals this year. He won both and allowed just five runs in 12 innings. One of those runs was unearned. He also has 17 strikeouts vs. only three walks. As for St. Louis, they turn to Wade LeBlanc and his 1.62 career ERA vs. the Reds is fourth best among all active starters. In his last four starts, LeBlanc has permitted only five runs over 18 innings. The number was set too high for this one. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-22-21 | A's v. Mariners UNDER 8 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Coming back home after playing two games at Coors Field should have a negative impact on the Mariners offense today. They are hitting .203 at T-Mobile Park, which is without question the lowest batting average for any team at home this year. They also own the lowest on base percentage. So do not expect Seattle to score many runs today off Sean Manaea. On top of everything you just read, Manaea shutout the Mariners over a full nine innings last month. The Under is 5-0 the past five teams Seattle has taken on a lefty at home. (Manaea is a lefty). But if there’s a “saving grace” for the Mariners in today’s game, it would be that Chris Flexen is starting. Flexen has been great at home this year with a 1.76 ERA. The Under is 7-3 in his 10 home starts. His last three starts, two of which did come at home, have resulted in a 0.90 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. His last seven starts have resulted in a 1.77 ERA and 0.94 WHIP and none of them have seen Flexen allow more than three runs. He’s allowed one or less five times and has always made it through six innings. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-20-21 | Marlins v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER It was not even close on Monday as the Nationals destroyed the Marlins 18-1. It was 10-0 after two innings and the Nats wound up finishing with 18 hits. Juan Soto has absolutely been hitting the cover off the baseball since the All Star Break. While it was the team’s second straight win, the six straight losses that preceded them shouldn't be forgotten as they gave up 10 or more runs three times in that run. So the Marlins should not wave the white flag on this series just yet. They have an excellent opportunity to put a big number on the board tonight against Paolo Espino, who last pitched in a 24-8 loss last Friday. He did not start that game, but did surrender three runs in 2.3 innings. In Espino’s last start, he gave up three runs in 3.6 innings. He has an 11.25 ERA in two prior starts vs. Miami. Of course, you’ve obviously got to respect what Washington’s lineup has been doing of late. It’s not just Soto either. They’ve pounded out double digit hits in eight of the last 11 contests. Soto is batting .588 with five home runs in the past four games. Miami’s Trevor Rogers has not made it through six innings in any of his last four starts. Nine of Washington’s last 11 games have gone Over the total and this one should follow suit. Play on OVER AAA |
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07-18-21 | Giants v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Giants had a five-game win streak snapped last night as they lost 3-1 to the Cardinals. That result definitely caught us by surprise even though we’d acknowledged how good Kwang Hyun-Kim had been for St. Louis. Today we’ll take the Over as it won’t be Kim pitching for the Cardinals. Instead it will be veteran Wade LeBlanc. His four starts have yielded a 1.77 WHIP. Three of those fours starts have seen LeBlanc fail to go five innings. You have to figure he’ll be giving up several runs here to a Giants offense that averages 5.0 runs/game and is 10-4 Over its last 14 games at Busch Stadium. But the reason we’re taking Over here (as opposed to the Giants again) is because San Francisco’s starter isn’t much better than LeBlanc. While LeBlanc gave up three runs in the first inning of his last start, Johnny Cueto gave up four runs in six innings to this very opponent back on 7/6. Cueto has given up nine runs in his last two starts. He has a 5.64 ERA and 1.68 WHIP on the road. Play on OVER AAA |
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07-16-21 | Mariners v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER These two AL West clubs hooked up right before the All Star Break. Seattle won the first two games, but then the Angels avoided a sweep with a 7-1 win on Sunday. We expect there to be a fair number of runs scored tonight. Seattle’s Chris Flexen has made six starts on the road so far. All six have gone Over the total. He’s been a big contributing factor in that, posting a 6.97 ERA and 1.74 WHIP. Andrew Heaney, who will start for the Angels Friday, has also been a bit of an “Over machine.” The Over is 12-2 in his 14 starts and he’s got a 9.42 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in the previous three. So there’s definitely reason to believe that one or both starters will struggle tonight. This series being in LA should also lead to more offense than what we saw from the Angels last weekend when they scored a total of 10 runs in three games. They are putting up 5.5 runs/game at home. That’s tied for the third highest average in baseball. The only teams higher are Toronto (who is playing in a minor league stadium) and Colorado (Coors Field). The Over is 51-24-3 in the Angels past 78 home games, including 41-17-2 when they are the favorite (as they are here). Play on OVER AAA |
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07-14-21 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 221 | Top | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 59 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Both teams shot relatively well in Game 3. Phoenix, despite trailing by double digits most of the way and losing by 20 points, actually shot slightly better. They finished the game at 48.2% while Milwaukee was at 47.8%. The Bucks attempted seven more shots total and made three more. They were also more effective from three, going 14 of 36 while Phoenix was only 9 of 31. We had predicted the Suns wouldn’t come close to making 20 threes again (like they did in Game 2) and sure enough we were correct about that. The Bucks were also better from the free throw line, a series first. While the Bucks winning Game 3 was never in doubt, the total came down to the wire and the result (Over or Under) very much depended on what number you got. We believe Game 4 will be the lowest scoring game in the series to date. Both these teams are giving up less than 105 points/game in the playoffs. Giannis Antetokounmpo, seemingly no longer injured, is coming off back to back 40+ point games. Don’t think we’ll see a third in a row though. During the playoffs, the Bucks are 5-1-1 Under when down in a series. The Under is also 7-3-1 L11 home games. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-10-21 | Yankees v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Yankees turned in a very impressive victory on Friday night as four pitchers combined to turn in a three-hit shutout of the Astros. That’s no small feat. Houston scores more than every other team in baseball - at 5.5 runs/game. So it’s difficult to imagine them getting shut down again. This time, Houston must face Gerrit Cole, but he’s 0-3 in his last three starts and his ERA and WHIP are 6.46 and 1.63. The Over is also 3-0 in those three starts. It’s 5-1 in Cole’s last six starts. He’s really struggled in the last two, giving up 10 runs in 8.3 innings. Cole has allowed at least one home run in six straight starts, a rather dubious streak. The Yankees, who have not gone Under in back to back games this month, will face Zack Greinke. Again, this may sound challenging from an offensive point of view. But the Over is 13-5 in Greinke starts in 2021, 8-1 at home. He has a 5.26 ERA at home. Before yesterday, the previous seven Yankees games averaged 11.0 total runs scored. Play on OVER AAA |
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07-10-21 | Braves v. Marlins OVER 7 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OVER Our only losing selection on Friday was the Over in this matchup. We’re doubling down on Saturday. Atlanta put up five runs yesterday, which we expected. But we did not see Miami getting blanked. The Marlins could manage just two hits against Charlie Morton, even though it was the fourth time they’d faced him in 2021. Expect them to fare better at the plate this afternoon vs. Max Fried. Fried has yet to defeat Miami in eight career tries. He’s 0-3 with a 6.19 ERA. Two of those losses have come this year as he’s allowed 11 runs in 10 innings. Also, Fried just gave up six runs in his last start. The start before that, however, was a 20-2 win. His last three starts have all gone Over. He has a 6.65 ERA and 1.65 WHIP on the road. Trevor Rogers is having a great rookie season for the Marlins … except when he faces the Braves. He has a 7.00 ERA in two career starts against them. This is a pretty low total for a matchup where one of the starters looks shaky and where you have to figure one of the teams (Atlanta) is going to score 4-5 runs. Play on OVER AAA |
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07-09-21 | Braves v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER These teams just met last weekend. All three games were decided by one run. The first two - a 1-0 win for the Braves and then a 3-2 win for the Marlins - were low-scoring games. Then the Braves took the series with an 8-7 win on the 4th of July. Their next series, which saw them drop two of three to Pittsburgh, didn’t go as well. But they did score 14 runs in the final game Wednesday. Miami just wrapped up a series against the Dodgers that went much better than expected. Though they lost yesterday 6-1 (we had the Dodgers), Miami won the first three games of that series and did so by scoring 16 runs. We are predicting today’s game to be pretty high-scoring. We’ve got our concerns about Braves starter Morton, who is 0-1 with a 7.63 ERA in three starts vs. Miami this year. Four different catchers have caught Morton in 2021 and the one who had been doing the best job was just sent back to Triple-A. In a rematch from Sunday, Morton is once again matched up with Thompson for Miami. Thompson has just five big league starts under his belt, but two were against Atlanta. So the Braves hitters should be more comfortable facing him this time. The Over is 17-3-2 in Atlanta’s last 22 Friday games. Play on OVER AAA |
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07-08-21 | Bucks v. Suns UNDER 219.5 | Top | 108-118 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Game 1 went Over the total, just as we predicted. In a surprising plot twist, Giannis Antetokounmpo was cleared to play right before tipoff. He scored 20 points and grabbed 17 rebounds. We expected a high volume of threes from the Bucks and they delivered on that, attempting 36 and making 16. Kris Middleton led the team with 29 points. But it wasn’t enough to overcome 32 points from Chris Paul in his NBA Finals debut as the Suns won 118-105. Phoenix may not have been as productive from behind the arc, but they were 25 of 26 from the free throw line. Deandre Ayton also had a better game than Giannis - statistically speaking - with 22 points and 19 rebounds. But there was a touch of bad news for the Suns coming off their first Finals win in 28 years. Dario Saric tore his ACL and will miss the remainder of the series. So Monty Williams is going to have to reconfigure his rotation. Expect Paul’s scoring to decrease in Game 2. Ayton now doesn’t have a backup. Overall, six Suns scored in double figures in Game 1. That’s probably not happening again. For Milwaukee, it remains to be seen if Antetokounmpo can play as well as he did in Game 1. Middleton, like Paul for Phoenix, will likely see his scoring decrease in Game 2. The Under is 8-1 for Milwaukee when they are off a straight up loss. The one exception was Game 5 vs. Atlanta, ironically the first of two games without Giannis. They are also 8-2 Under this season when on a streak of three or more consecutive Overs. The Bucks’ last three games have all gone Over. Not this one. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-08-21 | Tigers v. Twins UNDER 10 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER A new series starts Thursday with two teams at/near the bottom of the AL Central. Minnesota has been one of the biggest disappointments of the first half. They are in last place with a 35-50 record and could end up being sellers at the trade deadline. Only Arizona, who is having a disastrous year, has dropped more units at the betting window than have the Twins. They’ve lost seven of nine including each of the past two days to the White Sox. Detroit has been surprisingly competitive of late with wins in six of its last eight. They just beat Texas 5-3 yesterday afternoon. The thing about the Tigers though is you can’t really trust their offense. They are down among the lowest scoring American League teams. Lucky for them then that the Twins have scored just one run each of their last two games. The respective starters for Thursday - Tarik Skubal for Detroit and J.A. Happ for Minnesota - don’t exactly have the most sparkling numbers. But we expect both to pitch well in this spot. Both are lefties. Neither team is great vs. left-handed pitching. The Tigers are on a 10-3-2 run to the Under when facing a team that scored two runs or less in its last game. After a recent offensive surge and the Over going 7-0-2 their past nine games, they are due for a bit of a decline. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-07-21 | Yankees v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Yankees beat the Mariners last night by a score of 12-1. That made us happy as we were on the road team. The Yankees were very desperate for a win as they are 4th in the American League East and had previously dropped seven of nine games. Starting the series with such an emphatic win is something they hope leads to a strong final week before the All Star Break. For the Mariners, blowout losses are not uncommon. They have a -53 run differential on the year. We point that out because their record is 45-41. The 34-52 Rangers have a -51 run differential. So Seattle is lucky to even be in Wild Card contention. Tonight’s game may not end up being so lopsided, but we anticipate it being just as high scoring. In his last four starts, the Yankees’ Domingo German has allowed 18 runs in 15.3 innings. That’s more runs than Seattle’s Yusei Kikuchi has allowed in his last nine starts combined. But Kikuchi is facing a team that just put 12 runs on the board last night. The Yankees are 5-1 Over their last six games. Seattle is 6-1 Over after a loss. Play on OVER AAA |
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07-06-21 | Bucks v. Suns OVER 218.5 | Top | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The obvious story coming into these NBA Finals is the health of Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo. Milwaukee probably can’t win the series without him. But in the last two games, they have proven they can at least score with Giannis on the bench. Putting up 118 and 123 points was impressive. Consider that those last two games vs. Atlanta both rank among the Bucks’ top five highest scoring games this entire postseason run. Giannis is doubtful for G1 (despite “good progress”), so we’ll just assume he isn’t going to play. Based on those last two games, we do think Milwaukee will score enough to help send this one Over the total. In Game 6 vs. the Hawks, they knocked down 17 of 45 three-point attempts. We envision a high volume of three-point attempts tonight. Middleton and Holliday have certainly proven they can pick up the slack when Giannis is out. Phoenix scored 130 when it closed out the Clippers last Wednesday. They are 7-0 Over this season after a game in which they scored at least 130 points. The last three times they have faced Milwaukee, the Suns have scored a minimum of 125 points. The Bucks give up about 114 points/game on the road. That seems like a reasonable number for Phoenix to hit tonight and if they do, this one almost certainly goes Over the total. Play on OVER AAA |
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07-06-21 | White Sox v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER The first place White Sox came into Monday with a 14.5 game lead over the last place Twins. A big reason for that was an 8-1 head to head record in the season series. But the AL Central leaders could not get the bats going until it was too late last night and ended up losing 8-5. It was the third straight loss for the White Sox, tied for their second longest losing streak of the season. They have gone Over in eight straight games, but injuries are mounting and will begin to take a toll on this lineup. Jose Berrios is who will be starting today for Minnesota. He’s really had the White Sox number in the past. Berrios is 12-2 with a 2.77 ERA in 18 previous starts against them. He may not be as good as Bailey Ober was last night, but Berrios hasn’t given up more than four runs in any start this year. We don’t expect to see another eight-run effort from the Twins tonight as they face All-Star Carlos Rodon. The numbers for Rodon are better on the road than at home. He and Berrios faced off last week and while that game also ended up being an 8-5 final (but in favor of the White Sox), this one should feature a lot less scoring. Rodon has allowed one or no runs in 10 of his 14 starts this year. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-05-21 | Reds v. Royals OVER 10 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Reds are one of the higher scoring NL teams, so with the DH in play here in Kansas City it stands to reason they will have no trouble scoring runs off Royals pitching. Now Cincy has been winning in relatively low-scoring fashion recently. They’ve had to put no more than three runs on the board in each of the last three wins. But tonight they’re up against Mike Minor, who has an 8.64 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in his last three starts. Minor gave up five runs to Boston in his last start. That was after giving up nine to Texas. The Over is 6-2 in all Minor home starts this year. But also with poor numbers of late is Reds starter Gutierrez. He has a 8.22 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in his last three starts. He just gave up six runs to San Diego his last time out. The Royals had scored a combined 13 runs the previous two days before losing 6-2 Sunday. They are giving up 5.1 runs/game for the year. Meanwhile, on average, Reds’ games are already the second highest scoring in the league (trailing only the Angels). Play on OVER AAA |
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07-03-21 | Cardinals v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -119 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER It was a pretty misleading final score last night at Coors Field. The Cardinals won 9-3, but scored six runs in the top of the 10th. Still, while the game ended up higher scoring than what it “should have been” (still went Under), this is Coors Field and plenty of runs should always be expected. The Rockies, as is usually the case every year, lead all teams in runs per game at home. This year, the number is 5.8 runs/game. You can count on Colorado scoring more tonight than they did Friday as they will face Wade LeBlanc, who has made two less than impressive starts for St. Louis. The Rockies’ last six games have all gone Under, which is atypical, especially since the last five have all taken place at home. But they’re not facing the Pirates anymore (who they swept in the last series and shutout twice). The Cardinals should put up runs here against Kyle Freeland, who has a 6.54 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. While Freeland has allowed just one run total in his last two starts, those were against Pittsburgh and Seattle, perhaps the two weakest offenses in MLB. After a string of low-scoring games here, expect the typical Coors Field affair on Saturday night. Play on OVER AAA |
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07-03-21 | Bucks v. Hawks OVER 216 | Top | 118-107 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER In the last two games of this series, we have seen both teams deliver a win without the respective superstars. With Trae Young out, Atlanta shot 50.6% in a 110-88 win in Game 4. Young also missed Game 5, as did Giannis Antetokounmpo for the Bucks. This time it was “the others” on the Bucks stepping up. The new starting five combined for all but 17 of Milwaukee’s 123 points in the win Thursday night. Whether it was Atlanta without Young in Game 4 or Milwaukee without Giannis in Game 5, the home team responded better to not having their superstar both times. It remains to be seen if either will play in Game 6. But regardless, we think the total is too low. It opened more than 10 points lower from where it closed in Game 2. That makes sense due to the uncertain statuses of Young and Giannis. But the supporting casts have proven themselves capable of picking up the slack. It’ll probably be Atlanta’s turn tonight. They averaged 111 points/game in the two without Young. Milwaukee is averaging 112.4 points/game in the series. We see both teams getting to 110 tonight. Play on OVER AAA |
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07-03-21 | England v. Ukraine UNDER 2.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -125 | 24 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER England has yet to concede a single goal at Euro 2020. No other side can say that about themselves. Taking it further, there have been only four goals scored in all four matches involving The Three Lions and two of those came in the Round of 16 win over Germany. England has held each of its four opponents to tournament lows in shots on goals. So that’s the task ahead of Ukraine, who is in a World Cup/Euro Cup quarterfinal for just the second time in its history. They defeated Sweden to get here, getting the game-winning goal in the 121st minute. Sweden was playing with 10 men, if you recall. Ukraine has scored twice in three of its four matches, but that’s including an added time goal and facing North Macedonia. They did get blanked by Austria. We don’t see them getting on the scoresheet Saturday. But we can’t trust England to do so either, at least inside of 90 minutes. So Under is the correct call for this quarterfinal matchup. England has not allowed a goal in their last 540 minutes of competition. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-02-21 | White Sox v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The White Sox just swept a series against another division rival (Minnesota). All three games also went Over. The team’s win streak and Over streak is actually now at four, going back to a 7-5 win against Seattle on Sunday. In each of the four games, Chicago scored seven or more runs. Not sure they’ll go that high today. But they’ll score enough to help another game go Over the total. They average 5.0 runs/game on the road. The number here is pretty low considering how hot the White Sox have been at the plate of late. Also, Detroit totaled 16 runs in a doubleheader sweep of Cleveland on Wednesday. They had yesterday off. Lance Lynn, who had been having an outstanding year for Chicago, has struggled some of late. His ERA in the last three starts is 5.54 and his WHIP is 1.54. The team is 0-4 in his last four starts. He’s certainly owed some run support though as the White Sox have scored only nine runs in those last four starts. We think he’ll get the requisite run support here. But also look for Detroit to put some runs on the board. Casey Mize will start for the Tigers on Friday. 13 of his 15 starts have stayed Under, but we’ll buck that trend as this will be the third time the White Sox have faced him in 2021. Play on OVER AAA |
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07-01-21 | Astros v. Indians OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Houston just suffered what was possibly the most shocking sweep of the MLB season, losing all three games to Baltimore as big-time favorites. Now they turn around and head to Cleveland to face an Indians team that was just swept in a doubleheader - by Detroit - yesterday. The Astros have played 16 games in 16 days. So fatigue could be a factor for both clubs heading into this one. Nevertheless, we expect the hitters to take charge in tonight’s series opener. Houston is the highest scoring team in baseball at 5.8 runs/game and actually averages more when they are on the road. Tonight they go against JC Mejia, a starting pitcher that has a 6.27 ERA so far this year. It should be pointed out that Indians pitching allowed 16 runs in only 14 innings yesterday to a Tigers team that averages significantly fewer runs/game than the Astros do. The saving grace for Cleveland is that they score about a half run more per game at home than on the road. They will face Framber Valdez Thursday. Valdez has allowed a HR in three straight starts. The Indians have gone Over in their last six home games vs. a left-handed starter. The last five Houston series openers have gone Over as well. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-30-21 | Angels v. Yankees UNDER 9.5 | Top | 11-8 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Yankees finally got a win on Tuesday and in doing so they scored 11 runs. That’s more than they scored during the entirety of their four-game losing streak, which was snapped yesterday. So don’t go expecting another game like that from the home team. Last night was the Yankees season high in runs scored for a single game. They’ll be facing the dynamic Shohei Ohtani tonight. After hitting three homers in the last two games, Ohtani now returns to the mound where he’s produced a 2.58 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 11 starts this year. His last start marked the sixth time he’s allowed one run or less. The fact that he’s pitching tonight probably will have an effect on his hitting, so don’t go expecting him to add to his MLB-leading 27 home run total. It’s amazing though that he’s every bit as good a pitcher as he is a hitter. The Yankees’ Domingo German is only focused on pitching right now as he looks to turn around a rough June. This may be the right opponent as German has a 0.82 ERA in three previous appearances vs. the Angels. Road teams have hit just .213 at Yankees Stadium this year. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-29-21 | Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 219 | Top | 88-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The last game featured good shooting from both teams and still they combined for only 215 points. The big story for Game 4 is going to the questionable status of Atlanta’s Trae Young, who is nursing a bone bruise in his foot. Though he went for 35 in Game 3, you can’t reasonably expect that kind of production again, if he even plays at all. Young’s absence would be extremely detrimental for the Hawks as he has been carrying them offensively. He sprained his ankle at the end of the third quarter in Game 3. The Hawks would then go on to score only 17 points in the fourth. For the entire playoffs, the Hawks are only averaging 105.6 points/game. Over the last five games, that average is down to 102.2. The offensive efficiency rating plummets when Young is off the floor. Milwaukee has shot well the last two games, but doing so three straight times might be a bit tricky, especially with this game being on the road. The one positive bit of info for Atlanta if Young can’t go is that their defensive efficiency goes way up with him off the floor. A hobbled/absent Young means we can count on low-scoring from Atlanta while Milwaukee isn’t likely to get 38 from Middleton again. The Bucks are allowing just 102.4 points/game in the playoffs. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-28-21 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 214.5 | Top | 116-102 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Unlike their previous two series, the Clippers were unable to even things back up after four games. Having fallen into an 0-2 hole in every series thus far, the magic may have “left the hat” after a Game 4 loss to Phoenix. Though they ended up losing by only four, the Clippers trailed the entire game and were down by as many as 16 at one point. It was an ugly game, which ended up an 84-80 final and that was fine by us as we had the Under. That’s how we’re going to play Game 5 as well. The shooting will improve, but not by enough to approach this O/U line. The Suns didn’t score 100 points in either game at Staples Center. They probably will tonight, but the thing is they are only allowing 100.8 points/game in the playoffs. The Clippers have not scored more than 106 in any of the last three games. The amount of scoring has decreased in every game and while we’re not likely to see a repeat of Game 4 (164 points), something along the lines of Game 3 (198) and Game 2 (207) is pretty likely. Still no Kawhi Leonard for LA, remember. Phoenix has missed 58 of its last 78 threes. The Clippers are 13-6-1 Under off an ATS loss. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-28-21 | Orioles v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is 10* on OVER These teams played a three-game series in Baltimore and it went just like you thought it would. Houston won all three games. They scored 10 and 13 runs in two of the wins. Now having won 12 of their last 14, the Astros are massive favorites at home Monday. This despite losing two of their last three games (to Detroit!) all in low scoring fashion. Baltimore has lost 22 of its last 23 road games though, so Houston deserves this level of favoritism. We don’t want to bet any team in this price range though. But because they scored 93 runs in a 10-game win streak (ended Saturday), we’ve got no issues taking the Astros to go Over the total tonight. Baltimore has given up 10 or more runs in half of its previous 10 games. They lost 12-4 yesterday. Today’s starter Eshelman gave up six runs when he faced the Astros last week and that was in only four innings. The Over is 12-4 in Zack Greinke starts this season for Houston. Part of the reason for that is a 5.24 home ERA. The Astros are also the highest scoring team in baseball. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-28-21 | Canadiens v. Lightning UNDER 5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER We’ve got an unusual matchup in the Stanley Cup Finals. It’s “unusual” for a number of reasons. For one, it’s a matchup that would be impossible in every other season because these are two Eastern Conference teams. The Habs and Lightning have actually been in the same division since the last realignment. But for this unique season, which had travel restrictions, they have not met at all. Montreal being here is a shocker as no one expected the lone playoff team with a negative regular season goal differential to make it this far. It’s not a surprise that Tampa Bay, the defending Stanley Cup Champs, is still playing though. We like Game 1 to go Under. None of Montreal’s past seven games have had more than five combined goals scored. Tampa Bay has turned in two straight shutouts at home. They’ve also scored two or fewer goals in four of the past five contests. The Canadiens haven’t fared well in the past vs. the Lightning, especially in Tampa. The Under is 5-1 in the last six overall meetings. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-27-21 | Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 224.5 | Top | 113-102 | Win | 100 | 20 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Hawks are really struggling with their three point shooting. They’re barely above 25% in the last three games and have never been above 35% in any of the last seven. They finished with just 91 points in a pitiful Game 2 loss and while the series is heading back to Atlanta, we don’t necessarily think the Hawks will score a ton in Game 3. Looking at their entire playoff run, they’ve been above 110 points just four times. Milwaukee’s defense has been very strong. The number of points per game allowed by them in the playoffs is 102.5. The Hawks are 18-9 Under their last 27 games vs. winning teams and most of that has been the playoffs. Don’t forget how Kris Middleton of the Bucks sees his offensive production drop in road games. Jrue Holiday should also cool off after a hot first two games. The team scored 77 in the first half of Game 2, a really high number that probably can’t be touched again. Expect them not to shoot 52% from the field again. This has the makings of another hard-fought, low-scoring playoff game. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-26-21 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 219 | Top | 84-80 | Win | 100 | 34 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER After losing two close ones in Phoenix, the Clippers finally broke through in this series with a 106-92 win in Game 3. Other than the second quarter, the Clippers were largely in control throughout the last game. We are in control of this series with a 3-0 record. We took the Suns in Game 1, the Clippers in Game 2 (they covered the spread) and then the Clippers were our 10* Game of the Month in Game 3. We are laying off the side in Game 4 and will instead play the total. The last two games have gone Under. The Suns had only 92 points on 38,9 percent shooting in their loss Thursday. No one on their team scored more than 18 points and Booker/Paul combined to shoot 10 of 40 overall (3 of 14 on 3PA). You have to figure they are going to improve. But the oddsmakers have that built into the number. The Suns are allowing just 102.4 points/game in the playoffs. So the Clippers aren’t going to score a whole lot either here. Still no Kawhi Leonard. Phoenix may not have Cameron Payne, who has been so key as Chris Paul’s backup. He was injured very early in Game 3 (ankle) and did not return. “We missed him a lot” said Devin Booker. Marcus Morris is also listed as a game-time decision for the Clippers. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-26-21 | Angels v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Rays beat the Angels last night by a score of 4-3. That makes the Rays 5-0 in the season series as they swept a four-game set back in May. The Angels have lost four in a row overall, scoring just nine runs in the process. They scored exactly three in losses to the Rays, Giants and Tigers plus they were also blanked by the Giants on Tuesday. Tampa Bay has won three straight, including a game on Thursday where they did not get a hit until the eighth inning. But you can look for the hitters - on both teams - to wake up on Saturday. Alex Cobb is pitching today for the visitors. He’s got a 6.64 ERA and 1.62 WHIP on the road. He’d allowed five runs in back to back starts before shutting Detroit down in his last one. The Angels scored 11 runs in Cobb’s last start, so the Over is 3-0 the past three times he’s taken the mound. For the Rays, it’s Shane McClanahan. This will be his fifth start in June and he’s still without a win. McClanahan has actually pitched fairly well despite the lack of wins, but he has a higher WHIP than you like to see and a 4.67 ERA on the road. The Over has hit five straight times when the Angels are in the second game of a series. The Over is also 14-4 their last 18 games overall. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-24-21 | Golden Knights v. Canadiens OVER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Those pesky Habs won’t go away and are now just a win away from the Stanley Cup Finals. They came in as massive underdogs in this semifinal series with Vegas, who tied for the most points in the league during the regular season (and had the best goal differential). The series started with Vegas easily taking Game 1 and most figured Montreal’s magical run was done for. Not so fast. They’ve won three of the last four games. What continues to impress us is not just the fact the Canadiens have won 10 of their last 12 games, but they’ve never trailed in 9 of those 10 wins. Now we also had Vegas as our Game of the Year in Game 4, which they won. They are not going quietly into the night. While no game in this series has had more than five goals scored, we are going to predict this one will. Six of the Golden Knights top seven goal scorers have failed to put the puck in the net (even one time) in this series. This was the third highest scoring team in the league in the regular season. Each team has had a game where they scored four times. So both are capable of big offensive nights. Montreal’s penalty killing, which is 28 for its last 28, is due to give one up. Note four of the five games in the series have seen EXACTLY five goals scored. We just need one more to get over the hump here and we’ll take our chances. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-23-21 | Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 226.5 | Top | 116-113 | Loss | -109 | 28 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Two teams that won Game 7’s on the road will meet in this year’s Eastern Conference Finals. There’s a little bit of irony in Milwaukee making the Conference Finals in a year they weren’t “supposed to.” The last two years, they had the best record in the league. But all that got them was a loss in the Conference Finals and then a loss in the Conference Semifinals. Atlanta is in its first ECF since 2015 (were swept by Cleveland) and only the second since the 1960s! It’s been almost a half century since either franchise was in a NBA Finals, so there will be new blood coming out of the East either way. We like Game 1 to go Under. That’s the way most of the Bucks games in the last round (vs. Brooklyn) went. Same with Atlanta against Philadelphia. The last four Hawks-Sixers games all stayed Under. We had the Under in both Games 6 and 7. Atlanta playoff games have averaged just 211.2 points/game with the Under being 8-4. Milwaukee playoff games have averaged just 210.2 points/games with the Under being 7-3. So this number looks way too high. In the three home games against Brooklyn, the Bucks allowed 83, 96 and 89 points. Atlanta scored 103 or less in four of its last six games, never topping 111. The most points Milwaukee scored in regulation vs. Brooklyn was 109. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-22-21 | Canadiens v. Golden Knights UNDER 5 | Top | 4-1 | Push | 0 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER We are coming off a couple huge wins in the NHL. It was 8-0 last night with Tampa Bay. The night before last we won our 10* Game of the Year with Vegas. For the Golden Knights, that overtime victory evened this series up at two games each. The big story was the decision to start Robin Lehner in goal. After a disastrous start in Game 1 of the Colorado series, Lehner stopped 27 of 28 shots in Game 4 vs. Montreal. We don’t know for sure who will be starting Game 5 for Vegas - Lehner or Fleury - but either way we know we’ve got a solid goaltender between the pipes. This is not a game where we see more than five total goals getting scored. The Under is 3-0-2 in Montreal’s last five, so there has not been more than five total goals scored in any game of this series, obviously. Game 4 was the lowest scoring one yet with just three goals, including OT. Both teams are giving up just 2.3 goals per game in the postseason. We don’t see the winning side having to score more than two goals to take tonight’s game. The Habs’ Carey Price has a .931 save percentage in these playoffs. The Under is 23-6-7 in Montreal’s last 36 games as a playoff underdog. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-20-21 | Hawks v. 76ers UNDER 216 | Top | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Expect a low-scoring Game 7 from the 76ers and Hawks Sunday night. Since making 20 three-pointers in Game 1, Atlanta’s long distance shooting has fallen off a cliff. They made just 10 of 31 three-point attempts in Game 6, a major reason they lost, and have averaged only 9.5 made threes per game since Game 1. As a team, they’ve shot 43.1 percent overall in those last five games and averaged 104.8 points/game. Other than Trae Young, the Hawks scored 65 points in Game 6. Bogdan Bogdanovic is questionable for Sunday after leaving the last game with a knee injury. That would be a significant loss at the offensive end for Atlanta. The last three games have all stayed Under with 215 being the max amount of total points scored. These are not good free throw shooting teams. Philadelphia was #2 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. Offensively, they cannot continue making threes at a rate above 40%. Like most Game 7’s, this one stays Under. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-20-21 | Phillies v. Giants UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-11 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Giants had a five-game win streak snapped yesterday in a most shocking way as the Phillies beat them 13-6. Those 13 runs scored by the Phillies were nearly as many as the number they’d scored the previous five games combined (16), all of which were Unders. The Giants are typically one of the stingier teams in baseball as their pitching staff has allowed a batting average of just .218 for the year and .204 at home. Now Sammy Long, making his first career start, is a bit of a question mark for Sunday. But given the Phillies’ previous offensive woes, we believe Long will limit them. Phillies pitching has also been pretty good of late. In the seven games leading up to yesterday, they’d allowed an average of only 3.3 runs and a .196 batting average. Spencer Howard was scratched so that Zach Eflin can go Sunday. We like the move as Eflin is coming off two good starts in a row, both of which went Under. This game should be nothing like yesterday. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-20-21 | Turkey v. Switzerland OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Turkey and Switzerland have disappointed thus far at Euro 2020 and thus both will be desperate for points in the finale of the Group stage on Sunday. There’s no guarantee that either will make the Round of 16, but one (not both) could. Turkey has a terrible goal differential of -5, worst in the entire draw. At -3, Switzerland needs a big win as well. So what we expect here is a wide-open match. Neither side can afford a draw, so it will stay wide open throughout. Turkey not having scored a single goal in two matches is a bit stunning. Oddsmakers had them pegged for 3.5 goals in this tournament, though the expectation of them advancing past the group stage was probably factored into that. Still, with the likes of striker Burak Yilmaz, it seems like a near impossibility that Turkey won’t notch AT LEAST one goal here. Switzerland, like Turkey, was blanked 3-0 by Italy. But they definitely feel they should have had one more goal against Wales (overturned by VAR). We see both sides scoring here and at least one scoring two goals. That makes Over the play here. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-19-21 | Lightning v. Islanders UNDER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER We played Game 3 Under and that turned out to be a correct call with the Lightning winning 2-1. The visitors now have a 2-1 series lead after dropping Game 1 at home, also by a score of 2-1. Game 2 was 4-2 (in favor of the Lightning), but we don’t expect to see many more games like that in this series. The Islanders have found the back of the net just five times against Andrei Vasilevskiy. Tampa Bay did an excellent job at blocking shots in the last game as 11 players combined to block 21 Islanders shot attempts. Game 3 also brought the fewest number of total shots (53) we’ve seen in any game in the series so far. While they’ve allowed more shots than usual this postseason, the Islanders allow only 28.1 per game at home. So the decrease in shots for the Lightning in Game 3 wasn’t the least bit surprising. The Islanders allow just 2.1 goals/game on home ice as well. Tampa Bay has allowed just five goals its last four games, going back to when they closed out Carolina. The Under is 7-0 the last seven times TB has been off a win. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-19-21 | Poland v. Spain UNDER 2.75 | Top | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER There’s been much chatter about how scoring is up in this edition of the Euro Cup, at least compared to 2016. Well, we just cashed an Under on Friday with Sweden-Slovakia where a penalty was the lone goal scored. Spain was Sweden’s first opponent in this draw and the result there was a scoreless draw. Luis Enrique’s side left the pitch feeling like they should have scored at least one goal in that one. But alas they ended up sharing the points. Poland was a 2-1 loser to Slovakia their first time out. But as detailed in the writeup for the previous day’s match, they were down to 10 men by the end of the match and Slovakia got the game winner only after Grzegorz Krychowiak was sent off with a red card. The only other goal conceded by Poland was a dreaded own goal. So don’t be fooled by the two goals allowed. There is a lot of hand-waving going on right now with Spain and the fact they failed to score a goal against Sweden. Our best guess is this one ends up 1-0 in favor of La Roja. Regardless of what the exact final outcome ends up being, expect the Under to hit. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-18-21 | 76ers v. Hawks UNDER 222 | Top | 104-99 | Win | 100 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the UNDER This series is now 3-2 Atlanta after Philadelphia has blown big leads in each of the last two games. In Game 4, they led by 13 at halftime but lost 103-100 as the Hawks ended up taking 16 more shots. Game 5 was an even worse scenario. The Sixers led by as much as 26, but could not close the deal and suffered another three-point defeat (109-106) putting them on the brink of elimination. We chose to play the 1st half Under in Game 5 and even with Philadelphia scoring 62 by halftime, that bet was still a winner. Not pertinent to our bet was Atlanta having the huge 40-point fourth quarter. We don’t see that kind of offensive production from either side in this game. The Sixers have shot better than 40 percent from behind the three-point line for four straight games. It’s difficult to imagine them doing that for a fifth straight game. They’ve actually shot 51.2% overall in the series. Again, it’s very likely that number will decrease. There were 45 made free throws in Game 5. That’s yet another number that is unlikely to be matched. Atlanta is now 24-7 Under when leading in a playoff series, going 3-1 in that spot this year. Philadelphia was one of the league’s most efficient defensive teams in the regular season. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-18-21 | Slovakia v. Sweden UNDER 2.25 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the UNDER The second round of Group E action begins with Sweden taking on Slovakia Friday. Both sides were able to take points from their initial group match. Slovakia beat Poland 2-1 to get the full three points while Sweden played favored Spain to a goalless draw. While that was just one point for the Swedes, it was arguably a more impressive showing than what Slovakia did against a Polish side that was down a man by the end of that match. Shortly after Grzegorz Krychowiak was shown a red card for Poland, Slovakia struck with the game winner in the 69th minute. Their only other goal was a gift from the other side as Poland’s goalkeeper committed the cardinal sin of an own goal. So multiple goals from Slovakia in this one certainly seems to be unlikely. Probably content with the win from the initial group match, they’d be happy with a draw here. Same for Sweden, who has Poland yet to come. A draw here and a win there would likely move them to the knockout stage. So don’t go expecting more than a single goal scored in St. Petersburg and there may not be any scored at all. Sweden has already played one goalless draw and this could very well be another. Both sides will be content to pack the midfield. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-17-21 | Lightning v. Islanders UNDER 5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 118 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER As we predicted, the Lightning evened this series up at a game apiece. They won Game 2 on Tuesday, 4-2, as they never trailed and were up three goals for most of the third period. That kind of performance was to be expected following a sluggish outing in Game 1. Now the series heads to Uniondale where the Islanders are extremely tough to beat (25-9 home record this year). So we’re going to back off Tampa Bay for a moment and look at the total instead. The Isles’ scoring does jump at home, but they only allow 2.1 goals/game here and we don’t see them scoring more than three goals tonight. This season, New York is 9-3 Under following a loss by two or more goals. Tampa has seen seven of its last nine games go Under and has only gone Over in back to back games one time in the playoffs. That was back in the first round series vs. Florida. So coming off a game that went Over, we’ll call for less scoring in Game 3. The Islanders have just two even strength goals in the two games. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-16-21 | Canadiens v. Golden Knights UNDER 5 | Top | 3-2 | Push | 0 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER After never trailing in seven consecutive playoff wins, Montreal fell behind quickly and never led in Game 1 of their Stanley Cup semifinal vs. Vegas. The Golden Knights got a 1st period goal from Shea Theodore and went on to win 4-1. You get the sense that the Habs are in over their heads in this series. The North Division was weak and now they are up against the best team in the NHL. The odds obviously reflect that. Vegas is once again a heavy favorite to win Game 2. We don’t want to lay that much juice, but we will play the Under again, just like we did in Game 1. Marc-Andre Fleury has a .927 save percentage in the playoffs. Since getting blitzed by Colorado in Game 1 of the last round, Fleury has allowed just 12 goals in six games. Montreal’s only real hope here is their goalie Carey Price stepping up. Price is certainly capable. He has a .929 save percentage in the playoffs. We do not see Vegas scoring another four goals in this one, which is the key. The Canadiens are 22-6-5 Under L33 games as a playoff underdog. That trend continues Wednesday as Game 2 should be even lower scoring than Game 1. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-15-21 | Bucks v. Nets OVER 217 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The big surprise of this Eastern Conference semifinal is that all four games have stayed Under the total. Basically, ever since the first half of Game 1, scoring has come to a grinding halt between the Nets and Bucks. The four games haven’t just gone Under; they’ve all stayed Under by double digits. Game 1 stayed Under by 17.5 points, Game 2 stayed Under by 27 points, Game 3 stayed Under by a record-setting 66 points (!) and Game 4 stayed Under by 26 points. Brooklyn will also be without James Harden and Kyrie Irving for Game 5. So what we have is a somewhat unprecedented shift in the O/U line. We’re currently looking at more than a 20-point difference in where the number opened for Game 1 to what it is for Game 5. The value is now with the Over. Kevin Durant certainly can carry the scoring load for the Nets. He could easily go for 40+ tonight. Back at home, his teammates will shoot better than they have the previous two games. Milwaukee hasn’t shot the ball all that well either in this series and that can change in a heartbeat. We haven’t seen a total this low for either team in quite some time. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-14-21 | Canadiens v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Vegas is a huge favorite to win Game 1 of this Stanley Cup semifinals, but after watching the Islanders pull an upset yesterday we’re in no rush to lay such a massive price with the Golden Knights. Plus, Montreal is clearly a team with momentum right now. They’re on a seven-game win streak where at no point have they trailed. The Canadiens have allowed just 2.18 goals per game in this improbable playoff run as goalie Carey Price has looked like his old self with a .935 save percentage and 1.97 goals against average. Only three power play goals have been allowed by the Habs in the playoffs on 31 chances. This will be their toughest test to date, however. Vegas is much better than anyone from the all-Canadian North Division. The Golden Knights just held Colorado to eight goals in the last four games. The Over might be 5-0 in the last five meetings, but these teams haven’t faced off since pre-pandemic. The Under is 22-6-4 in Montreal’s past 32 games as a playoff underdog. Vegas scored six goals in the close out game vs. the Avs, but is on a 5-1 Under run coming off a 5+ goal game. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-14-21 | Rays v. White Sox UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER This should make for an excellent three-game series. We’ve got the first place team in the East and the first place team in the Central. For Monday’s opener, it should be an excellent pitching matchup as Glasnow opposes Lynn. Glasnow checks in with a 2.57 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. He’s been even better of late though with a 1.64 ERA and 0.82 WHIP the last three starts. He has 30 strikeouts in 22 innings and allowed only four runs. That said, Lance Lynn has perhaps been even more dominant. He’s allowed two runs or fewer in every start but one this season. He’s yet to allow more than three. Over his last seven starts, Lynn has given up a total of five earned runs. In the past eight games for both teams, the respective staffs have held the opposition to below a .210 batting average. Five of the last seven games have seen the White Sox give up two runs or less. Tampa has the best bullpen ERA and is 1.59 the past 17 games. Given all of the above, how do you not take the Under here? Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-13-21 | Suns v. Nuggets OVER 222 | Top | 125-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Phoenix Suns had not made the playoffs in over a decade entering 2020-21. But they had no problem ending the league’s second longest postseason drought, going 51-21 and finishing behind only the Jazz in the Western Conference standings. One more win and they’re in the Conference Finals (against either Utah or the Clippers), which is how far they made it in their last postseason run with Steve Nash back in 2010. We know we can count on the Suns to score tonight. They’ve reached 113 points in five straight games and average 114.6 points/game for the year. It’s Denver that’s been a problem for Over bettors the last two games. They’ve averaged just 100 points/game. That’s well below their season average. They average 117.5 per game at home. It was a 41.1 FG% in Game 3 as Nikola Jokic’s teammates didn’t step up to support him on the night he was awarded the league’s MVP award. While the Under is 2-0 in the previous two games, it’s been close both times. Denver’s role players are likely to step up tonight as the season is on the line. That’s how this one goes Over. The Nuggets are 10-5 Over after a loss by 10 or more points. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-13-21 | Rockies v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Colorado continues to be an absolute horror show on the road. They are 5-26 away from Coors Field. Yesterday was even worse than usual, which is really saying something, as they lost 10-3 to the Reds. The last three days have seen them outscored 32-12 including 21-8 in the two games in Cincinnati. The Rockies have now hooked up with the Reds six times in 2021 and at least 11 runs have been scored in every game. Four of those were in Coors, but the two here in the Queen City have seen 16 and 13 total runs scored. So you can’t just attribute the scoring to Denver. The Reds have horrible pitching; they’ve allowed more runs than all but two NL teams (Colorado being one of them). Tony Santillan is being called into duty for his first career big league start on Sunday. While it may seem tough to make a projection on him for this game, we know the Over is 21-8-1 for the Reds after a game where they scored five or more runs. They got to 10 yesterday without even hitting a single home run. It was their 10th game this season scoring 10 or more runs. The Reds give up more than six runs per game at home. Senzatela has a 6.75 ERA and 1.90 WHIP on the road for Colorado. This will clearly be a high-scoring affair. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-12-21 | Russia v. Belgium OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 107 | 238 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* On OVER If you don’t know, Belgium is the #1 ranked team in the world entering Euro 2020. In qualification for this tournament, they ended up with the maximum 30 points. They are unbeaten in their last nine matches and considered the favorite to win Group B. Not all the news is great though as playmaker Kevin De Bruyne is out due to facial fractures sustained in the Champions League Final. But we expect the Red Devils to still score multiple goals in this Euro Cup opener with Russia. This is typically a high-scoring side and they beat Russia twice - 4-1 and 3-1 - during qualification. Those are the only losses sustained by Russia during Euro Cup qualification, however, and we look for them to score a goal in this one. This match is in St. Petersburg and it’s been awhile since the Russians failed to score a goal in a match. There was a 2017 International Friendly between these two sides that ended up 3-3. Expect some fireworks. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-11-21 | 76ers v. Hawks OVER 224.5 | Top | 127-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER The Sixers seem to be firing on all cylinders offensively in these playoffs. They are averaging more than 123 points/game and have shot almost 54 percent from the field in the first two games vs. Atlanta. Joel Embiid is averaging 39.5 points/game for the series and is showing no real ill-effects from the cartilage issue that was thought to be a problem last week. Atlanta has no answers for stopping Embiid and they just took another hit at the defensive end with De’Andre Hunter having to undergo season-ending surgery. Hunter was arguably the team’s best individual defender. The good news for the Hawks is that the next two games are at home where they have won 13 straight times. Their season scoring average at home is 115.1 points/game. Trae Young missed six of his seven three-point tries in Game 2. You’ve got to think he’s going to bounce back with a big game tonight. Philadelphia has scored at least 114 points in every playoff game. This may not end up as high scoring as Game 1, but it will be higher scoring than Game 2 and that means OVER. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-10-21 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 234 | Top | 83-86 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Despite Brooklyn shooting a blistering percentage from the field, the Under is 2-0 in their series with Milwaukee. Credit the blowout nature of the two games for some of that. Game 1 was on pace to go Over through three quarters. But then the fourth happened and only 40 total points were scored. We were still fine with how things played out; we had the Nets and the win was a lot easier than the 115-107 final score would seem to indicate. Game 2 was never close as Brooklyn led by 19 after one quarter, 26 at halftime and won by 39. Milwaukee never scored more than 24 in any quarter and ended up with a season-low 86 points for the game. It was only the fifth time in 2020-21 that they were held below 100. The other four all saw them score at least 96 points. After they went 14 for 57 on three point shots in the first two games, look for that facet of the game to improve by a lot now that the series heads to Brew City. This is a team that shoots almost 49% overall and 40% from three at home. Their season scoring average at the Fiserv Forum is 120.8 points/game. Brooklyn, even without James Harden, is going to keep shooting the ball well. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-09-21 | Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 222.5 | Top | 98-123 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Game 1 went Over, which is par for the course for these teams as that’s the way the last three meetings have gone as well as six of the last seven here in Phoenix. But we believe Game 2 will go a bit differently. Phoenix shot really well in Game 1, making 54.1 percent of their attempts. Denver wasn’t too far behind at 46.7%. It’ll be difficult for both teams, particularly Phoenix, to match those percentages. As for Denver, they’ve gone Over in all their playoff games but one. But as they found out Monday, they are now playing the Suns and not the Blazers. Portland had the worst defensive efficiency rating of any playoff team. So it was only logical that MVP Jokic and his teammates had their way offensively with them. But in seven playoff games, the Suns are allowing less than 100 points/game. They are only scoring 106.6 per game themselves though. Can they really count on 23 points again from Mikal Bridges? Probably not. Four starters (Bridges, Ayton, Paul & Booker) combined to shoot 33 of 51 (64.7%). No way we see that again. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-08-21 | Clippers v. Jazz UNDER 220.5 | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Clippers turned in their highest scoring effort of the first round when they most needed it, winning Game 7 against Dallas 126-111. But with just one day off, we think it’s going to be extremely difficult to match that against Utah in Game 1 of the second round. But the good news for Los Angeles is that Utah hasn’t played in six days and thus is also likely to start slow offensively. It was a similar amount of time off that the Jazz had going into the first round. In Game 1 of that series with Memphis, they turned in their lowest scoring effort of just 109 points. Them and the Grizzlies found a way to sneak Over in all five games that they played, but we expect a different scenario to play out here with the Clippers. In the last five games, the Clippers held Dallas to an average of 100.4 points/game on just 42.3% shooting. Mike Conley is questionable tonight for Utah and that would be a big loss. Conley had a great first round series against his former team. On the bright side for the Jazz, they give up only 105.2 points/game at home. The Under is 5-1 the last six times the Clippers have been underdogs, which doesn’t happen often. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-07-21 | Royals v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 101 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER We also like this Royals-Angels game to go Over on Monday. Even after a 2-1 loss Sunday, Kansas City has averaged 6.9 runs over its last seven games. The Over is 7-1-2 their L10 games. They had a seven-game stretch of scoring at least five runs before losing Saturday and Sunday. However, the biggest news out of Kansas City for this game is that one of their top prospects will be starting. Jackson Kowar dominated down at Triple-A Omaha, but this is the big leagues now and we expect him to give up some runs. The Angels are a really solid club offensively when they are at home. They put up 5.4 runs/game in Anaheim. Only three teams average more at home and two are Colorado and Toronto, both of whom play in hitter friendly parks. While we like Dylan Bundy to pick up his first win of the season today for the Angels, it is somewhat difficult to look past his 6.49 ERA. It’s going to take runs for the Angels to win this game and we think they’ll get them. One of Bundy’s better starts this year came against the Royals. So go with the Angels and the Over in Monday’s series opener. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-07-21 | Bucks v. Nets UNDER 234.5 | Top | 86-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The pace was furious, but slowed down in the fourth quarter and the end result was that the Bucks and Nets went Under in Game 1. After 62, 62 and 58 combined points were scored in the first three quarters, there were only 40 in the fourth. While none of the quarters in tonight’s Game 2 may end up as low scoring as the fourth was on Saturday, we also don’t think the pace will be quite as furious as we saw early on in Game 1. The big story is James Harden being OUT for Brooklyn due to hamstring tightness. Harden missed all but one possession in Game 1 and while the Nets still scored 115 points, that’s below their season average and they shot 46.9%. Durant and Irving went a combined 23 of 51. But the big surprise was Griffin and Harris going 14 of 24 overall and 9 of 18 from three. We just don’t see those two doing that again. Milwaukee’s three-point shooting was an issue in Game 1 as they missed 24 of 30 attempts. They also were 11 of 19 from the FT line. While those percentages probably will improve, it’s still a very high total that we’re dealing with and we don’t see 15 more total points scored than what we saw in Game 1. Milwaukee is 4-0 Under off a loss. The 115 points they allowed in Game 1 were a playoff high (previous high in regulation was 103). Brooklyn has allowed an average of 104.5 points in four playoff home games. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-07-21 | Marlins v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER This is Miami’s second trip to Fenway Park in the last 11 days. The first one did not go well as they lost both games. That started a free fall as the Marlins wound up losing eight in a row, a streak that didn’t end until yesterday’s 3-1 win in Pittsburgh. However, this time they may be catching the Red Sox in a favorable spot. Boston went 3-0 over the weekend at Yankee Stadium and that’s a high that will be difficult to come down from. The previous two games between these teams also both stayed Under. The final scores were 5-2 and 3-1. The Marlins lack of offense was odd considering they get to play with a DH. Expect more runs from them the second time around at Fenway. Nick Pivetta, despite owning a 9-2 team start record, has not exactly been a dominant starter for Boston. The Over is 5-1 in his six home starts and his ERA in his last three overall is 5.29. We don’t think the Red Sox will have much difficulty scoring runs either as they are putting up 5.2/game at Fenway. They averaged six per game over the weekend against Yankees pitching. Pablo Lopez, who starts Monday for Miami, has twice allowed six runs in a start this year. Both times were on the road. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-06-21 | Jets v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Carey Price’s eighth career playoff shutout gave Montreal a 2-0 series on Friday. It was 1-0 Montreal in Game 2, the lone goal actually coming when the Habs were playing short-handed. That was a sharp contrast to Game 1, a 5-3 game that featured two four goal periods. Price made 30 saves in Game 2. Montreal got off only 24 shots though, so it was a very fortunate win for them. They have not trailed at any point during their 5-0 playoff run, something that has not been done by any team in the Stanley Cup Playoffs since 2012. The Under is 10-3-1 in Montreal’s last 14 home games and 4-0 in Winnipeg’s last four road games. Stasny may return for the Jets tonight, but Scheifele remains suspended. So they are thin at the center line position. We expect goalie Connor Hellebuyck (.940 save percentage in the playoffs to step up in this one as well. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-06-21 | Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 210.5 | Top | 111-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The only Game 7 of the first round comes from a series where the road team is 6-0. That had never happened before the Mavs and Clippers, but here we are. It’s a series where we’ve gone 6-1, our only loss coming with Dallas in Game 6 as we had expected them to break “the curse” of the home team. That obviously did not happen. But we are 4 for 4 when playing the total. We had the Under in Games 1, 4 and 5 so that’s been our favorite bet throughout the series. Sharp money has definitely hit the Under hard for Game 7, which should not be a surprise. The Under has hit each of the last three games (Game 6 ended up being 104-97), none of which have exceeded 205 total points. Also, Unders have done historically well in Game 7’s, hitting over 60% of the time. Dallas is making only 43.9% of their shots the last five games after a hot start to the series. The Clippers have not been hitting their threes as Game 5 saw them plummet down to 29.4 percent (10 of 34) from that range. As we’ve stated before, the Mavs typically go Under when they’re underdogs. That record now stands at 23-7 for the year. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-05-21 | Mets v. Padres UNDER 6 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the UNDER Jacob deGrom is pitching Saturday night for the Mets and even though he’s facing San Diego, we’ve got a very low total on our hands here. We’ll still go Under. deGrom has a 0.71 ERA and a 0.57 WHIP. There has been one time in eight starts that he gave up more than one run and the three he allowed that day (at Colorado) were all unearned. So that’s just four earned runs he’s given up in 2021. But deGrom is not the only reason we like this game to go Under. San Diego will be sending Joe Musgrove to the mound. In addition to throwing the franchise’s first ever no-hitter back on April 9th at Texas, Musgrove has given San Diego a 2.43 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. His numbers over the last three starts are even better than deGrom’s. The Padres only give up 2.8 runs/game at home. That coupled with the best pitcher in baseball make this an easy call on the Under. Expect very few runs to be scored tonight. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-04-21 | Avalanche v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER As we said in the Game 2 analysis, Colorado looks like the team to beat in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. They are 6-0 in the playoffs and have scored 30 goals. They did need overtime to win Game 2 over Vegas in what was their lowest scoring effort of the postseason (three goals). The Avalanche have not lost a game since May 5th and are 14-1 L15 overall. Averaging 5.0 goals/game in the playoffs and 3.7 for the year, there’s no doubt with us that the Avs are likely to score three or more this evening. When on a win streak of three or more games, the Avs are 16-4 to the Over this year. Vegas is back home now - where they’ve always had an advantage. It may not be enough for them to overcome this juggernaut, but look for the Golden Knights to score as they are averaging 3.4 goals/game in Sin City. The last time they played at T-Mobile Arena, they scored six times in a Game 7 victory over the Wild. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-03-21 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 228 | Top | 126-115 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER There’s been lots of scoring in the Nuggets-Blazers series, but Game 5 was the peak as the teams went into double overtime and combined for 287 points. Damian Lillard had 55 of those, but his team lost 147-140. It was 121-121 at the end of regulation, so even without OT it would have been the highest scoring game of the five so far. Only Game 4 has gone Under. That happened to be the last time they played in Portland, which is where Game 6 is tonight. Denver scored just 95 points in Game 4. Game 5 happened to be the first time in the series where both teams shot better than 43 percent from three. So that isn’t likely to happen again. Lillard isn’t going to score 55 again and Denver’s supporting cast around Nikola Jokic isn’t going to produce here like they did at home. Four Denver guards - Rivers, Campazzo, Morris and Howard - have combined to shoot 42% from three in the series, which cannot possibly continue. We think there’s a good shot tonight ends up being the lowest scoring game of the series so far. Portland is 5-1 Under after allowing 130 or more points. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-02-21 | Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 217.5 | Top | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the UNDER We’ve won once with Dallas in this series (Game 2), once with the Clippers (Game 3) and once with the Over (Game 2). But the Under is something we’ve won with twice (Games 1 and 4) and that’s how we’re playing Game 5 tonight between the Mavs and Clippers. The home team is 0-4 SU/ATS in this series with the Clippers having come back from an early 0-2 hole. They dominated Game 4 in Dallas, winning by 25 and holding the Mavs to a series-low 81 points. The Mavericks shot just 34.8 percent overall and were 5 of 30 from three point range. Luka Doncic was dealing with neck pain and had his least productive game of the series. The Under is now 22-6 this season in games where Dallas is the underdog. The Clippers are 15-5 Under in their past 20 games. We don’t think that LA can continue shooting 50% like they have over the course of the first four games. They are an underrated team defensively as they allowed the eighth fewest points per possession in the regular season. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-01-21 | Lakers v. Suns UNDER 207.5 | Top | 85-115 | Win | 100 | 23 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Lakers seemed to be well in control of this best of seven series. Then they lost Game 4. In that 100-92 setback, Anthony Davis strained his left groin and did not play in the second half. Already nursing an ankle injury, it seems doubtful that Davis will play tonight. The Lakers have not shot the ball well from three point range in the series, making only 29.1 percent of their attempts. This is a series where the losing team has been held below 100 points in three of the four games. There’s been one Over and that was Game 2 where a bunch of late free throws pushed the scoring past the number. Phoenix has shot 32.1 percent or worse from three in all but one game. Chris Paul is not 100 percent for them. Seeing as how none of the four games have had more than 211 total points scored and two have had less than 200, we’re going Under for Game 5. The Lakers are 28-9 Under this year vs. teams with winning records. They are 9-4 Under off a straight up loss as a favorite. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-01-21 | Angels v. Giants UNDER 7 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Some fascinating trends to consider when playing the total in this Angels-Giants game today. The Angels have gone Under in five straight games. They could only manage one run in yesterday’s loss to the Giants. Tuesday’s starter Heaney is 7-0 Over his last seven starts, but neither his WHIP or ERA are all that terrible. Starting for the Giants will be Alex Wood and the Under is 4-0 his last four starts. The final scores of those four games were: 3-1, 4-1, 1-2 and 3-4. So no more than seven runs in any of them. There were seven total runs scored in yesterday’s game, six of them by San Francisco. The Angels don’t have Mike Trout (injured) and can’t use the designated hitter in this series. So their offense is severely weakened right now. Ohtani is relegated to being a pinch-hitter. Visiting teams are scoring just 3.3 runs/game in San Fran this year. So as long as the Giants offense doesn’t go off, and we don’t think it will, this game is staying Under. Play on UNDER AAA |
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05-31-21 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Toronto fans have to be getting uneasy as their team has lost two straight overtime games and now the series with Montreal comes down to a winner take all Game 7. Those fans can take solace in the fact Vegas was also in this position and the third time turned out to be the charm when it came to putting Minnesota away. Like the Knights, the Leafs get the deciding game on home ice. They’ve outshot Montreal in the series and have outscored them 17-11. Seven of Montreal’s 11 series goals have been in the last two games, two of those obviously game winners in OT. While we certainly favor Toronto tonight, the money line is just a little too rich for our blood. We like the Under more anyway as Habs goaltender Carey Price is doing “Carey Price things” with a .926 save percentage for the series. The Under is 20-5-4 in Montreal’s last 29 playoff games as the underdog. The Under is also 8-3-1 the previous 12 Montreal vs. Toronto clashes. Play on UNDER AAA |
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05-30-21 | Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 222 | Top | 106-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER The Clippers are back in this series after winning Game 3 118-108. The last two games have both gone Over as Dallas won Game 2 127-121. We had the Over in that game as well as the Under in Game 1, which was a 113-103 win for the Mavs. After cashing the Clippers in Game 3, it is back to the total for Game 4 and we are taking the Under in this one. The Clippers shot 57% in Game 3. No way they’ll do that again. Plus, the Mavericks have to start cooling off from behind the three point line. In the series, they are 55 of 109. That’s over 50%! They made only 18 of 47 two-point shots in Game 3. Dallas went from 58% in Game 2 to 44% in Game 3 on all field goal attempts. We expect a similar decrease tonight on the Clippers side after that 57% shooting on Friday night. The Under is 20-7 in Dallas past 27 games as an underdog. Play on UNDER AAA |
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05-30-21 | Nets v. Celtics UNDER 229 | Top | 141-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER It took a Herculean effort from Jayson Tatum (50 points!) for the Celtics to win Game 3, 125-119 as a seven-point underdog. We don’t think Tatum will be going for 50 again nor do we think Boston will go 16 of 39 as a team from three-point range again. The Celtics were 50% overall from the field in Game 3, a number they weren’t close to in Games 1 or 2 where they shot 36.9% and 42.4% respectively. Even if you assume Kemba Walker shoots the ball better today compared to Game 3, it’s probably a net loss in offensive production when you factor in Tatum’s likely regression. Same thing with Brooklyn’s Kyrie Irving, who did not shoot the ball well in the last game. But Kevin Durant and James Harden combined for 80 points. Will they do that again? Unlikely. The Nets’ own three point shooting (now over 43% the past two games) is probably going to start going down as well. The Under is 4-1 the last five times they’ve been off an ATS loss. Play on UNDER AAA |