Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-22-18 | Eastern Michigan v. San Diego State -11.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 43 m | Show |
412 Eastern Michigan at San Diego State Long travel scenario for the Eagles who haven’t played in the Pacific Time Zone in at least 20 years. The Eagles have 10 time revenge against Northern Illinois on deck, so we don’t know how much preparation this Chris Creighton team has put into this game. Since it’s the third straight road game this club may use this week as a mini vacation in beautiful California. The Aztecs defense has performed well against Stanford and Arizona State out of the PAC 12. Hosting the Cardinal to only 30.6% successful plays and the Sun Devils to just 41.4%. The offense is right around league average despite being underdogs in both those games. With a bye on deck before a big showdown with Boise State, this is a great spot play on the host. PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE |
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09-22-18 | Louisiana Tech +21 v. LSU | Top | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 124 h 38 m | Show |
383 Louisiana Tech at LSU Rare chance for the Bulldogs to play big brother in the state of Louisiana. The last time these two met was in 2009, a 14 1/2 point cover for La Tech. The Bulldogs are off a bye while the Tigers pulled the road upset over rival Auburn. Skip Holtz is a solid 6-2 ATS as a 20 point or more underdog at Louisiana Tech. He’s also 10-3 ATS as a road underdog of any number the past 4+ seasons. His team is also 6-4 ATS vs Power Five Conferences since taking over the Bulldogs in 2013. LSU beat both Miami Florida and Auburn, but had a +4 turnover advantage in those two games. This is obviously a sandwich game for LSU with Mississippi on deck after playing Auburn. The Tigers are now 0-4 ATS as a 20+ favorite in the last year plus under Ed Orgeron. Great spot here to fade the public favorite. PLAY LOUISIANA TECH |
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09-22-18 | UNLV +7.5 v. Arkansas State | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
377 UNLV at Arkansas State Is this the year UNLV finally returns a winning record? It’s first since 2013 and only winning mark in the last decade. We believe it’s a strong possibility as the defense looks much improved. Offensively the offense produced 71.8% successful plays against UTEP, the worst program in the FBS. But it’s still impressive against anyone. Under Tony Sanchez the one positive role has been as road dog with a 12-4 spread mark including the cover earlier at USC. Arkansas State returns home after playing at Alabama and Tulsa. Even with a +2 turnover margin in those games the Red Wolves were outscored 77-36. When measuring successful play percentages this team has produced 32.3% while allowing 56.8%. Obviously Arkansas State wasn’t expected to compete with Alabama, but it took a +2 turnover margin to win at Tulsa. Not sure this Sun Belt squad is good enough to beat what we consider to be at least an average Mountain West Conference team by a margin. PLAY UNLV |
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09-22-18 | Charlotte +7.5 v. UMass | Top | 31-49 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 25 m | Show |
315 Charlotte at Massachusetts After a 1-11 season a year ago we like what Brad Lambert and his squad have done this season in Charlotte. In its short history in the FBS this program has won just one less game on the road than at Jerry Richardson Stadium. So we get the team in the preferred road underdog role against a team without much of a home field advantage. Massachusetts hasn’t won more than two home games in any season since 2010. Under Mark Whipple the Minutemen have been favorites just 11 times in four plus seasons. UMass returns home off a very rare three game road trip, losing at Boston College, Georgia Southern and FIU. Defensively this is one of if not the worst defense in the nation. The opposition has produced 63.6, 55.4 and 69.1% successful plays against the Minutemen. While Charlotte doesn’t have an explosive offense, they can move the ball at will against this squad. Tough to lay over a touchdown when you can’t stop anyone. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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09-22-18 | Notre Dame v. Wake Forest +7.5 | Top | 56-27 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
344 Notre Dame at Wake Forest What has happened to this Irish offense? Last year it averaged 34.2 points per game. This season it has scored 24, 24 and 22 points. More telling is the lack of success in offensive plays. Just 33.3, 41.7 and 44.6% of plays have been successful. Tough to lay points in the road favorite role with an offense that is struggling. Wake Forest has faced two FBS squads and put up better success percentage numbers than both Tulane and Boston College. Keep in mind the Demon Deacons are at a -3 turnover disadvantage in those games. Under Dave Clawson Wake has been a very good home underdog and this is the third straight home game for the Deacs. No way the Irish remain in the Top 10 after this week. PLAY WAKE FOREST |
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09-21-18 | Mets v. Nationals +145 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
952 NY Mets at Washington We all know how great Jacob deGrom has been this year, and he’s been just as good on the road. But even in a Cy Young year this number is way too high. We rate the Mets starter 32% better than Ross, but the other key stats all all heavily on the Nats. This game should be much closer to a pick ‘em. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-20-18 | Jets v. Browns -3 | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 51 h 22 m | Show | |
302 NY Jets at Cleveland The Jets took advantage of a tell from Matt Stafford in the opener and won big on Monday Night Football. Then on a short week had to host a division rival and didn’t have the same success against the Dolphins. Now on another short week the team travels to Cleveland. The Browns remain winless but managed to cover both games, against far tougher opponents than the Jets have faced. To hold the Steelers and Saints to 21 points each in a total of nine quarters is impressive. The short week will expose the Jets rookie QB, as no additional plays will be able to be added to the playbook. This gives the Cleveland defense plenty of chances to force turnovers, which it has in abundance the first two games. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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09-18-18 | Nationals -184 v. Marlins | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 0 m | Show | |
903 Washington at Miami Strasburg and Alcantara We don’t usually tread in this deep of water when it comes to playing large favorites, but this line is really cheap considering the matchups. The Nationals rate 36% better in starting pitching, 18% better in the bullpen and 23% better offensively. Strasburg owns a 2.26 ERA on the road with a 1.05 WHIP and .229 opposing team batting average. He hasn’t allowed a run to the Marlins in five innings this year. Alcantara has gotten off to a nice start with the Marlins but keep in mind he had a 1.80 WHIP last year in St Louis and has always suffered with control problems. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-16-18 | Lions +6.5 v. 49ers | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
281 Detroit at San Francisco Short week for the Lions after being embarrassed at home on Monday Night Football. The Jets picked up on signals from Matthew Stafford and knew what plays were being called. Now with time to correct that the Lions are priced as a bargain. San Francisco suffered many injuries last week at Minnesota. That is much more worrisome than what happened for the Lions. With two teams rated virtually equal coming in to the season, this line should be closer to the home field value of 2 1/2. PLAY DETROIT |
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09-16-18 | Panthers +6 v. Falcons | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -102 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
263 Carolina at Atlanta The Panther defense was superb in shutting down the Cowboys last week. Holding Dallas to a mere 33% successful offensive plays, and winning the sack battle 6-3. The Panthers have been a terrific road underdog with a 20-8 spread mark the past 6+ years. Atlanta took a great deal of money before the season opener, but neither team had much offensive success, especially in the red zone which has been a constant problem for the Falcons. Atlanta produced just 35% successful plays offensively, and lost despite a turnover advantage. Under Dan Quinn the Falcons are 8-13 ATS as a home favorite, and this line is simply too high. PLAY CAROLINA |
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09-16-18 | Dolphins +3 v. Jets | 20-12 | Win | 100 | 23 h 44 m | Show | |
273 Miami at NY Jets Miami outlasted the Titans last week in a lightning slowed game. There wasn’t much continuity because of the weather in Florida. But Miami was the better team posting a 57% successful play average, while Tennessee was only 40%. The Dolphins have won 3 of 4 in this series, and grade out as the slightly better team. The Jets have a short week after playing Monday Night Football, and were helped by a +3 Turnover margin. With a rookie quarterback we won’t see many games in which the Jets win the turnover battle. Not only is New York on a short week, but it plays Thursday night in Cleveland. PLAY MIAMI |
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09-16-18 | Vikings -2 v. Packers | 29-29 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 10 m | Show | |
265 Minnesota at Green Bay We mentioned last week that we expected the Vikings to be the best team in the league this year, and it got off to a great start hosting the 49ers. The Vikings have won 4 of 5 as of late against the Packers, holding them to 0, 10, 14 and 13 points in those victories. This line is set as if a healthy Aaron Rodgers would line up behind center. But that’s not guaranteed, so this line has no where to go but up for the Vikings. Even if he plays the Packers didn’t show much Monday Night when the Bears weren’t trying to run out the clock. The Pack only has 39% successful offensive plays while allowing 45% to the Bears. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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09-15-18 | Twins +113 v. Royals | 3-10 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
971 Minnesota at Kansas City De Jong & Kennedy Young Chase De Jong rates 5% higher than veteran Ian Kennedy and the Twins bullpen is 19% better than the host. Minnesota also has a 15% offensive advantage. A clean sweep on the underdog, can’t pass this one up. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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09-15-18 | White Sox v. Orioles +115 | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
970 Chicago at Baltimore Lopez & Ramirez Bullpen game for the Orioles with Yefry Ramirez on the mound. He has been much better pitching at home than on the road. Lopez on the other hand has a 4.65 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and .268 opponent batting average away from home. Our numbers show Ramirez with a 16% advantage and the Baltimore bats with an 8% edge. Chicago does have a 4% bullpen advantage. Wrong team favored here. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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09-15-18 | Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois -14 | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -108 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
158 Central Michigan at Northern Illinois We expected the Chippewas to be down a year ago and the team posted an 8-5 record. I guess we were a year too soon as this team has looked terrible in the early going. Central lost at Kentucky by 15 in the opener, but it owned a +4 turnover margin. A 2 point cover with a +4 TO margin is not very impressive. Central Then hosted Kansas, a team that had lost over 40 straight times on the road. Not since 2009 had the Jayhawks tasted victory on the road. We Kansas not only won, but blew out the Chippewas 31-7. Northern Illinois faced Iowa and Utah to open the season, two of the best defensive teams in the country. Despite double digit losses to both squads, the Huskies looked better than the final scores. When looking at productive plays Northern Illinois produced just 34.4% but allowed only 35.2%. A much better showing than what the final scores indicated. After facing those two tough defenses, we expect this Huskies offense to have a much easier time. After losing to the Chippewas the past four years, you know this team has had this game circled. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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09-15-18 | Vanderbilt v. Notre Dame UNDER 53 | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 115 h 13 m | Show | |
138 Vanderbilt at Notre Dame The Commodore defense regressed last year by allowing 31.3 points per game, up from 24.0 the prior season. With seven returning starters we look for this defense to bounce back this season. Against Middle Tennessee and Nevada Vanderbilt permitted just 7 and 10 points. This team is allowing just 65% in early down success rate. Which is the percentage of first downs on first and second down decided by total first downs. Notre Dame is permitting just 62% in early down success rate, allowing 17 and 16 points to Michigan and Ball State. The Irish offense has gotten off to a slow start and we expect that to continue here. PLAY UNDER |
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09-15-18 | Kent State +35.5 v. Penn State | Top | 10-63 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 13 m | Show |
119 Kent State at Penn State We’ve been very impressed by the job first year coach Sean Lewis has done in Kent. Outplaying Illinois on the road most of the game and clobbering FCS opponent Howard. The same Howard team that beat UNLV straight up on the road in last years opener. This along with Hawaii are likely to be the two most improved programs in college football. Penn State is a step down from the previous two seasons. This team lost a lot of talent to the NFL. State had to go to overtime to beat a pretty good Appalachian State team, and couldn’t put away the Pitt Panthers until the second half. Conference season starts early as the team travels to Illinois to play the Illini on Friday. We expect the Nittany Lions to go through the motions here on a short week. Keep in mind after the Illini game Penn State hosts power Ohio State. The Lions are 4-6 ATS laying 20 or more under James Franklin. The Golden Flashes have the talent to keep this one relatively close. PLAY KENT STATE |
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09-15-18 | Troy +10.5 v. Nebraska | 24-19 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
129 Troy at Nebraska Under Neal Brown the Troy Trojans are 8-1 ATS as a road underdog. The last three seasons Troy has gone to Boise State, LSU, Clemson, Mississippi State and Wisconsin. Covering every single game including beating LSU outright and losing at Clemson by just 6 points in the Tigers championship year. This is a team you can trust when stepping up in class. Scott Frost and his squad have played just once after weather cancelled the opener against Akron. In that contest Colorado beat the Cornhuskers outright in Lincoln. In that game the starting quarterback was injured and a walk on had to play. The two original backups left the program after the starting quarterback announcement. Now the Huskers hope the starter last week returns, but if he does he will be extremely hampered. PLAY TROY |
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09-14-18 | Diamondbacks +177 v. Astros | Top | 4-2 | Win | 177 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
927 Arizona at Houston Ray & Keuchel Our numbers show the Diamondbacks with a solid 15% starting pitcher edge, while the Astros have the bullpen and hitting advantages by 18% and 15%. That’s not nearly high enough to be a favorite in this price range. Robbie Ray has been outstanding on the road all season with a 2.90 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and .193 opponent batting average. Dallas Keuchel at home is just 4-5 on the season with a 3.66 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and .253 opponent batting average. Nice spot to take the generous dog price with the much better starter. PLAY ARIZONA |
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09-12-18 | Astros -1.5 v. Tigers | 5-4 | Loss | -160 | 3 h 35 m | Show | |
915 Houston at Detroit Cole & Norris Run Line Play Huge advantages across the board here for the Astros. Starting pitching is a 35% advantage, a 31% bullpen edge and an 18% hitting advantage. The Astros hit left-handed starters on the road 18% better than league average. Daniel Norris continues his trek to return from injury. It hasn’t been a productive return as the last two years have seen his ERA in the 5.40 range. Just too many good hitters in this Astros lineup. PLAY HOUSTON -1 1/2 RUNS |
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09-09-18 | Bills v. Ravens -5.5 | Top | 3-47 | Win | 100 | 913 h 25 m | Show |
460 Buffalo at Baltimore Let’s get this one out early as we see this number rising by game time. Baltimore has traditionally looked good in preseason as John Harbaugh is 26-13-1 ATS with the Ravens. Word is that Flacco has really been focused now with Baltimore taking Jackson in the first round. He was really good before his big contract, and seemed to rest on his laurels after getting the big money. The threat of losing his job has brought out the best in him. The Ravens brought in some talented receivers to open up the offense, something that has been a real sore spot on this team as of late. With a strong defensive team we look for the Ravens to be in contention all season. The Bills have brought in a new offensive coordinator after a nine win season a year ago. But while this team really sold out to make the playoffs last season, the advanced numbers say this club didn’t deserve the winning record. Last year Buffalo faced the easiest schedule of opposing defenses, and still struggled offensively. This team was fortunate with a +9 turnover margin. Now the Bills have a new quarterback. Taylor had been one of the best signal callers in the league when it comes to taking care of the football. Now the team will have someone behind center who has never been considered an NFL starter. The offensive line which was fifth in the league in positional spending a year ago, is now 29th this season. The win totals have steadily gone down on this team as money has poured in on the under. We expect this line to continue to go up by game day. Let’s get ahead of this one. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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09-09-18 | 49ers v. Vikings -5.5 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 691 h 7 m | Show | |
456 San Francisco at Minnesota No team enters the season with more hype than the San Francisco 49ers. After winning just two games in 2017 this team jumped up to six wins a year ago. After starting the season poorly the brass traded for Jimmy Garoppolo and the rest is history. The offense ranked 30th in salary a year ago and now ranks 2nd, with most of that money going to Jimmy G. While it’s nice to know your team is willing to spend money, the Niners gave sizable raises to questionable players. The defense will remain a concern as our numbers show this team to be quite weak when not having the ball. The club had a sack margin of -13 last season and we don’t see how that has been addressed. The offense is solid but the defense will hold this team back. Minnesota in our opinion is the most complete team in the NFC, including the Super Bowl Champion Eagles. In back to back years the Vikings lost its starting quarterback before the regular season and still won 21 total games. Kirk Cousins took a great deal of flack in Washington, but keep in mind his offensive lines there were terrible. Injuries kept Cousins from having the success he can have here in Minnesota. Throw in the fact that no NFL QB faced a tougher schedule of pass defenses the past two years, and you see how enamored we are able this signing. Even with an early major injury in camp this Vikings offensive line is much better than what he played with in Washington. We expect this line rise so let’s get this one up early. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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09-08-18 | Maryland v. Bowling Green +16 | Top | 45-14 | Loss | -106 | 51 h 58 m | Show |
362 Maryland at Bowling Green The Terrapins shocked the Longhorns of Texas again last week for the second time in two years. Maryland won as a 12 point underdog. The team was helped along in that game with a +3 turnover advantage. This is a program that was a road favorite just once last season, a 31-24 loss at Rutgers. Only once in the last three years has Maryland won by more than this spread away from home. Bowling Green held tough at Oregon last week. In fact, the Ducks played starters well into the second half of that game. BG had a solid 71% early down success rate against a team in a power five conference. This club has enough offense to take on Maryland head to head here with a chance to pull off the upset. Off a 2-10 season without a home victory, the Falcons will be primed for this Big 10 visitor. PLAY BOWLING GREEN |
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09-08-18 | North Carolina -16.5 v. East Carolina | 19-41 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 57 m | Show | |
341 North Carolina at East Carolina Despite the 24-17 loss last week at California, we were impressed by this Tar Heels squad. NC lost the turnover battle by 4 and won the sack count 4-0. This team travelled cross country with many suspensions and played the Bears evenly. Larry Fedora will have his club’s attention this week as the last time these two met in 2014 East Carolina put up 70 points on these Tar Heels. East Carolina was 3-9 each of the last two seasons, and if the opener against North Carolina A&T is any indication, this team won’t taste many wins. Last year the Pirates were outscored by 20.1 points per game. Overall 6 of its 12 games resulted in opponents scoring 50 points or more. The Pirates are 6-13 ATS at home the past three seasons. This team has one of the lowest home field advantages in college football. North Carolina wins this one going away. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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09-08-18 | Buffalo v. Temple -4 | Top | 36-29 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 50 m | Show |
346 Buffalo at Temple This is the only game on grass for the Bulls this season. Buffalo has an excellent quarterback and many feel this team is in for a big season. Coming off an impressive showing against Delaware State, the Bulls are a popular choice by the masses this week. But we don’t buy in to the Bulls nearly as much as others. In fact, this number should be much higher in our opinion. Temple struggled last week against Villanova. But many people are unaware that the team was having headset problems in the first half. The quarterback had to make the play calls because the OC wasn’t able to get his plays relayed from the press box in the first half. After that was corrected the team played much better in the second half. PLAT TEMPLE |
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09-08-18 | Western Michigan +28 v. Michigan | Top | 3-49 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 37 m | Show |
309 Western Michigan at Michigan The last five seasons the Broncos are 8-4 ATS when stepping up against power five teams. That includes a half point spread loss to Purdue in 2014. Out of those 12 games Western has yet to lose by more than the current spread on this contest. The Broncos are also 14-6 ATS as a road dog the past five seasons. Michigan is looking to rebound off a 24-17 loss at Notre Dame. The Wolverines failed to surpass 36 points in any game last year, and despite the optimism we doubt that number can be reached here. Therefore we have a team that’s not likely to score much more than the current line in this contest. Easy call on the dog here, as it’s much more important for the directional state school. PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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09-07-18 | Astros +100 v. Red Sox | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
969 Houston at Boston Cole & Price Terrific series between the two best teams in baseball. Cole rates 16% better than Price, although both are elite starters. Boston has a 2% better bullpen, but both are among the league leaders. Offensively Houston excels with a 4% advantage, although combined these two are 30% better than league average in hitting. Cole is equally good on the road as opposed to home. His opponent batting average away of .206 is simply outstanding. Price has been better at home than away, but his inconsistency has hurt his season. Keep in mind he only pitched 74 innings a year ago, so he may be hitting a wall about now. We would rather trust Cole and company, and this line is quite the bargain. PLAY HOUSTON |
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09-05-18 | Rays -122 v. Blue Jays | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -122 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
965 Tampa Bay at Toronto Glasnow & Sanchez Huge pitching advantage for the Rays as we rate Glasnow 52% higher than Aaron Sanchez. The Tampa Bay bullpen has a 6% advantage, while Toronto owns a 2% batting advantage. Sanchez continues to make his way back from major surgery, and while he does we can continue to take advantage. A 5.22 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP give us all the numbers we need to go against this starter. While it is a small sample size Tyler Glasnow has a 2.89 road ERA and a 0.70 WHIP on the road, along with an opponent batting average of .117. His overall numbers through 86.2 innings are very good as well. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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09-04-18 | Cubs -103 v. Brewers | Top | 1-11 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
907 Chicago at Milwaukee Montgomery & Miley Chicago owns the advantages across the board with a 12% starting pitcher edge, 3% bullpen advantage and 3% offensive edge. Montgomery has been better on the road, while Miley has done the same. The Cubs are the better squad and Miley is living on borrowed time. PLAY CHICAGO CUBS |
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09-04-18 | Tigers +154 v. White Sox | Top | 8-3 | Win | 154 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
921 Detroit at Chicago Liriano & Giolito Detroit has a 14% starting pitcher advantage, and an 8% hitting edge, while the bullpens are virtually equal. The White Sox hit 16% worse than league average at home vs left-handed starters. Giolito has been a disaster in the major leagues, after being a highly touted prospect in the minors. He has pitched great his last three outings, which is why this line is so high. That said we cannot ignore his MLB history of a 5.09 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Let’s take advantage of this small sample size as we expect Giolito to regress in this start. PLAY DETROIT |
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09-03-18 | Virginia Tech v. Florida State OVER 56.5 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -106 | 245 h 30 m | Show |
219 Virginia Tech at Florida State Getting this one up early as the line has been moving, and we want to lock this one in before it continues. We expect this Hokies defense to take a step back this year. The defensive backfield has already suffered attrition since spring practice. We also expect this offense to be better this season after taking a 6.8 peg drop a season ago. But the real reason for this play is the massive change of pace expected in Tallahassee this season. Jimbo Fisher preferred a slow pace to his offense which really made no sense considering he out talented just about every opponent on the schedule. When you have the better athletes you want to have more plays to exploit that fact. By slowing the pace all you are doing is giving the opposition a chance to stay in the game. Enter Willie Taggart who wants to hike the ball as fast as he can. It keeps the defense from substituting and gives his superior team a better chance to shine. The Seminoles averaged 27.8 peg last year. After averaging 37 mpg the prior six seasons. Let’s get this one in now before this thing rises any further. PLAY OVER |
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09-03-18 | Angels v. Rangers -106 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
976 LA Angels at Texas Shoemaker & Springs Matt Shoemaker finally makes his second start of the season after not pitching in the majors since March. The line is based on him going somewhat deep into the game, but we expect this to be a bullpen game for the Angels. Exactly as it will be for the Rangers. Our numbers show the Rangers with a 10% starter advantage, with a 6% bullpen edge. The host also has a 6% offensive advantage in this one. Very cheap price on the host today. PLAY TEXAS |
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09-01-18 | Navy -10 v. Hawaii | Top | 41-59 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 15 m | Show |
215 Navy at Hawaii The midshipmen are coming off a down 7-6 season, their worst record since 2011. While only nine starters return, that’s a regular occurrence with the military teams. After losing 6 of 7 to end the season, Ken Niumatalolo and company should rebound nicely. Hawaii off a 3-9 season shocked Colorado State in the opener. But we believe most of that had to do with the Rams head coach not being healthy enough to coach the practices. Keep in mind that Hawaii last year was outscored by 11.1 ppg, and had lost 9 of 10 to end the season. The Warriors permitted 5.3 ypr each of the last two seasons. We see the Navy running game wearing out this very questionable Hawaii defense. Hawaii is 4-15-1 ATS at home the past three seasons. This home field advantage is very low. PLAY NAVY |
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08-31-18 | Blue Jays v. Marlins +105 | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
930 Toronto at Miami Sanchez & Straily Aaron Sanchez continues to work his way back into the Blue Jays future plans. The problem for Toronto fans is that he’s still not close to his pre-injury days. While Toronto has nothing to play for the management wants to get him in playing shape for next season, and build up his arm strength. That’s a big advantage for us as we rate Aaron Sanchez 43% lower than an average MLB starter. While Toronto does have a 12% bullpen edge, it’s Miami with a 3% batting advantage. PLAY MIAMI |
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08-31-18 | Syracuse v. Western Michigan +6 | Top | 55-42 | Loss | -106 | 75 h 4 m | Show |
144 Syracuse at Western Michigan The Orange had 15 and 18 returning starters the last two seasons and managed to win just four games each year. The team brings back 14 starters this season. While the team will have veterans, keep in mind the Orangemen haven’t posted a winning record since 2013. In the past three seasons Syracuse has a combined two wins away from home. Western Michigan went 13-1 two years ago and fell to 6-6 last year under Tim Lester. The Broncos know this Syracuse squad very well as not only the head coach, but the offensive and defensive coordinators recently coached at Syracuse. Just two years ago Lester was the quarterback coach for Orangemen signal caller Eric Dungey. Here we get a home team that is 17-6 in Waldo Stadium the past four seasons, that knows the opposition better than anyone. PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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08-30-18 | Angels v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
966 Los Angeles at Houston Heaney & Verlander Major starter edge for Verlander as we rate him 31% higher than Heaney. The Angels starter has hit a wall as of late as his innings count is much higher than the two previous injury prone years. The Astros bullpen also dominates with the same 31% advantage. And the host has a 12% hitting edge. Instead of laying the high price on the money line we feel very confident the Astros win this one going away. PLAY HOUSTON -1 1/2 |
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08-30-18 | Wake Forest -6.5 v. Tulane | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 41 m | Show | |
139 Wake Forest at Tulane The Demon Deacons long known as a defensive football team, really broke out offensively last year. Going from 20.4 ppg to 35.3 last season. The Deacons need to replace its starting QB and its second returning receiver who is out with injury. Other than that this team returns mostly intact offensively. Tulane is coming off a 5-7 season under Willie Fritz. 12 starters return including starting QB Jonathan Banks. The team averaged 27.5 ppg a year ago but the offensive line which returned five starters last year must be rebuilt. We also have concerns about a secondary that lost an NFL draft choice. Our numbers say the Demon Deacons win this game by double digits, as the Wake stop unit is the best unit on the field. PLAY WAKE FOREST |
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08-30-18 | Twins +195 v. Indians | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 55 m | Show |
961 Minnesota at Cleveland Odorizzi & Clevenger This line is way too high by our numbers. Cleveland does have a 13% starting pitcher advantage, but that’s the only major edge for the Tribe. The Indians put Miller on the DL again, and Cody Allen has lost all confidence. The hitting is virtually identical. Odorizzi has shown better numbers on the road, while so has Clevenger. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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08-29-18 | Mariners v. Padres -109 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 37 m | Show | |
922 Seattle at San Diego Ramirez & Lucchesi The Padres have a 22% starting pitcher advantage, as our numbers really like Joey Lucchesi. He has a strange delivery which takes time to adjust to, especially in an interleave situation. The Padres bullpen also rates a 17% edge, while the Mariners own a 4% offensive advantage. Erasmo Ramirez is off three productive starts, but his career numbers have been mediocre at best. On the road he has a 5.23 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and allows opponents a .286 batting average. Joey Lucchesi has actually pitched better on the road, as home runs have been a problem at home. He has permitted 12 homers in only 61.1 innings of work here at Petco. That’s an anomaly we don’t see continuing. Nice price with the better pitching staff. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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08-28-18 | Pirates v. Cardinals -157 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
958 Pittsburgh at St Louis Nova & Flaherty The Cardinals starter has a solid 27% advantage over Nova. The Pittsburgh bullpen does have a slight 5% advantage. St Louis owns the offense by 11% as the Pirates hit righties on the road 10% lower than league average. Jack Flaherty has been good at home with a 3.10 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .205 opponent batting average. Ivan Nova owns a 5.18 ERA away with a 1.38 WHIP and a .278 opponent batting average. We don’t normally tread in this price range but the value is there on the host. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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08-26-18 | Rangers v. Giants -146 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
978 Texas at San Francisco Gallardo & Holland Major starting pitcher advantage for Holland who rates 35% better than Yovani. San Francisco also holds a 15% bullpen edge, to go along with a 20% hitting advantage. The Rangers are 14% below league average on the road vs left handed starters. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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08-26-18 | White Sox v. Tigers +104 | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 11 m | Show | |
968 Chicago at Detroit Kopech & Zimmermann Michael Kopech has gotten a ton of hype which is why we can take advantage of the betting market here. We’ve followed his career in the minors and frankly we feel he is overrated. He struck out four batters in two innings in his debut, which helped push the hype train. While we rate him 7% better than Zimmerman, the host has the other key edges. A 6% bullpen advantage and a 14% hitting edge, as the Sox are 15% below league average on the road vs righties. PLAY DETROIT |
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08-26-18 | Phillies -110 v. Blue Jays | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 5 m | Show | |
975 Philadelphia at Toronto Velasquez & Estrada Major pitching edge here as Marco Estrada is finally showing the regression many have called for the last few years. We rate Valasquez 26% superior to the Jays starter. The Phillies bullpen has a 12% advantage and offensively Philadelphia is 11% better than Toronto. We are getting quite a bargain on this contest. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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08-25-18 | Rangers v. Giants -141 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 25 m | Show |
928 Texas at San Francisco Perez & Suarez Despite the win/loss records of the starters, we have a pitching mismatch by our numbers. Clear data sports has the Giants’ starter rated 39% higher than Perez. The San Francisco bullpen has a 15% edge and the offense a 17% advantage. Many times we agree with the line moves on games but this one is an exception. The opener was in the correct ballpark. Perez has battled through injuries throughout his career and has never lived up to the hype. He has a 6.82 ERA on the road this season with a whopping 1.91 WHIP and an opponent batting average of .362. While he’s obviously not that bad, that just tells you how he has struggled this season. Andrew Suarez has been much better at home than on the road. He owns a 3.79 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and an opponent batting average of .247. His strikeout to walk ratio is almost twice as high at home than on the road. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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08-24-18 | Cardinals -105 v. Rockies | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
959 St Louis at Colorado Mikolas & Senzatela Major pitching advantage for the Cards here as Mikolas rates 30% better than his mound counterpart. Colorado owns a 4% bullpen edge, while the Cards have a 2% offensive advantage. Mikolas has a perfect 7-0 mark on the road this year. With a solid 3.47 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and .241 opponent batting average. Antonio Senzatela has pitched better at home this year with a 3.00 ERA. But his whip is high at 1.43 and his opponent batting average is .277. So don’t let that ERA fool you as he has permitted just one home run at Coors in 21 innings on the mound. We really though the Cards would be a sizable favorite tonight, this is a bargain price. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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08-23-18 | White Sox v. Tigers -131 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 1 h 23 m | Show |
914 Chicago at Detroit Shields & Boyd Big advantages for the host here. Detroit has a 29% starting pitcher edge, a 6% bullpen advantage, and a whopping 20 offensive edge. Chicago hits lefties on the road 20% worse than league average. Boyd is 5-3 with a 2.80 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and .185 opponent batting average at Tiger Stadium. James Shields on the other hand is 1-7 on the road with a 5.75 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. PLAY DETROIT |
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08-22-18 | Cardinals +152 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 152 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
961 St Louis at Los Angeles Flaherty & Buehler Very surprised by the size of this line as we have this matchup much closer. Flaherty rates 5% better than Buehler, also we love both of these starters. While the Dodgers bullpen does have a sizable 23% advantage, it’s been in shambles as of late. The Dodgers have a 15% advantage offensively, but not nearly enough to support this high spread. The Cardinals are on a 19-6 run including taking the first two games of this series. The Dodgers on the other hand have lost 8 of 11. Plenty of value on the dog here. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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08-21-18 | Indians v. Red Sox -142 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -142 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
916 Cleveland at Boston Bieber & Eovaldi As an Indians fan we watch every Tribe game all season. While the starting pitching staff has been terrific, we feel Shane Bieber is a ticking time bomb. Most of his stuff is pedestrian, and he’s had success because he’s only allowed seven home runs in 68 innings. His ERA is 4.37 which is mediocre. His WHIP is 1.41 which is high, and he allows opponents a .295 batting average which gets you sent to the minors very quickly. He’s having success at this level by smoke and mirrors. Nathan Eovaldi has always had a terrific fastball in which he tried to overpower the batter and get the strikeout. Because of that he was too predictable and couldn’t go long in the game. This year because of getting older and prior injuries he’s finally learning how to be a pitcher. Since coming to the Red Sox he’s pitched 15 innings in Fenway Park and has yet to give up a single earned run. On the season his ERA is 3.62 with a WHIP of 1.04. This line is low because of public perception, especially on the Bieber side of the equation. Let’s look for the Sox to even this series. PLAY BOSTON |
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08-20-18 | White Sox v. Twins -158 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -158 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
966 Chicago at Minnesota Giolito & Gonsalves Decent price to go against one of our worst rated pitchers in the league. Not only do the Twins have a massive starting pitcher edge, but also a 20% advantage in the bullpen. Offensively Minnesota owns a 27% advantage offensively. Chicago hits lefties on the road 16% lower than average, and now must face a pitcher the players have never seen at this level. Stephen Gonsalves has been simply amazing in his minor league career. He owns a 53-20 record with a 2.46 ERA. His WHIP is 1.10 with an opponent batting average of .199. That covers 599 minor league innings. We always like to back rookie lefties the first time through the league, and he should dominate this light hitting White Sox lineup. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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08-19-18 | Astros -144 v. A's | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
927 Houston at Oakland Verlander & Manaea Strong starting pitcher advantage for the Astros here. Our numbers show a 33% advantage with Verlander. Houston also shows an 18% bullpen edge. Houston also rakes on the road vs lefties hitting 20% higher than league average. Justin Verlander has dominated on the road this year with a 1.74 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent batting average of just .195. While Manaea’s home stats are good the A’s haven’t backed him with much support. He’s only 5-5 on this mound this season. PLAY HOUSTON |
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08-17-18 | Mets +154 v. Phillies | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
901 NY Mets at Philadelphia Syndergaard & Nola Two excellent starters go head to head on Friday and we believe the line is a bit inflated on the host. Our numbers show the only real advantage in this game being the Phillies bullpen, but Syndergaard normally goes deep into games. We also feel that after the Phillies permitted a total of 30 runs yesterday, the bullpen will obviously be a little taxed. The Mets have played nine road games this month against the pitching staffs of the Nationals, Marlins, Yankees, Orioles and Phillies. In those nine games New York produced 73 runs. Since the All-Star Break the Mets have averaged 6.7 runs away from home. With Thor on the mound and the Mets being underrated on the road all season we like our chances in this one. PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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08-16-18 | Mets +145 v. Phillies | Top | 24-4 | Win | 145 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
953 NY Mets at Philadelphia Oswalt & Suarez First Game of Today’s Doubleheader Taking a look at Corey Oswalt’s numbers suggest a much better pitcher than a 5.03 ERA would indicate. He’s allowed seven home runs on the season which is why the ERA is so high. But in reality he has a 1.07 WHIP and allows opponents just a .224 batting average. The Mets are one of if not the best road hitting team in baseball. It’s Citi Field that keeps this offense from getting the respect it deserves. Philadelphia was just in a series against the team running away with the best record in the league, the Red Sox. That was a show me series for this young team. We can’t see them getting up for the lowly Mets here. Our numbers have New York as a real bargain here. PLAY NEW YORK METS 1ST GAME OF DOUBLEHEADER |
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08-15-18 | Pirates v. Twins -117 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 1 h 9 m | Show |
918 Pittsburgh at Minnesota Archer & Berrios The Minnesota hitters should have an advantage here as they are very familiar with Chris Archer from his years in Tampa Bay. The Pirates hitters on the other hand are unfamiliar with Jose Berrios. The Minnesota hurler has struggled in 2 of his last 3 starts, but should bounce back strongly here. He has a 2.95 ERA at home with an amazing 0.88 WHIP. Opponents are hitting just .187 against him on this mound. We rate Berrios with an 11% starting pitcher advantage, and a 15% hitting edge here, with the bullpens being even. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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08-14-18 | White Sox v. Tigers -128 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -128 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
962 Chicago at Detroit Giolito & Hardy Lucas Giolito was once a prized pitcher in the Washington farm system. He was traded to the White Sox, and after Tommy John surgery has never been the same. He’s pitched much better on the road than at home this season, and he still has terrible numbers away. It’s even worse when he pitches at night, with a 7.24 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. This is not a pitcher we want anything to do with in this price range. Clear Data Sports rates Giolito 50% worse than an average major league pitcher. The White Sox continue to trot out three of the worst starters in baseball. Hardy rates 49% higher than Giolito, the Detroit bullpen has a 6% edge, and offensively Detroit hits 6% better against right-handed starters than the White Sox. Hardy has been a real bright spot for the Tigers this year. We trust him and the Tigers to make quick work of the visitor tonight. PLAY DETROIT |
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08-13-18 | Nationals v. Cardinals -137 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
904 Washington at St Louis Milone & Mikolas Devastating loss for the Nationals last night with their ace starting the contest. Losing a 3-0 lead in the bottom of the ninth with one swing is about as bad of a loss as you can think of. Now the Bats have to travel off a night game to face the rejuvenated Cardinals. Huge pitching edge for the host who has a 41% advantage in the starters. The bullpens are equal, while Washington does have a 4% batting advantage. Miles Mikolas has been outstanding in this ballpark. A 2.01 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP on the season. He’s allowing opponents a .237 batting average and has only permitted two home runs in an amazing 71.2 innings of work at home. While that last stat is sure to regress, this man has owned this mound all season. Cheap number considering the circumstances. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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08-12-18 | Red Sox v. Orioles UNDER 8.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 1 h 58 m | Show | |
968 Boston at Baltimore Sale & Cobb Not much time for analysis on this one. Basically we have Sale on the mound against Cobb who is finally starting to get back to his previous years form. It’s getaway day after a high scoring series including a double header. We can see plenty of early swings here as neither team wants to extend this game. The Red Sox just want to get out of town and enjoy a day off, and the O’s know success against Sale is likely futile. PLAY UNDER |
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08-11-18 | Cardinals -154 v. Royals | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
929 St Louis at Kansas City Flaherty & Duffy While we have made a living on underdogs this season, this is the time of year that favorites are golden. Once rosters expand we will find great value on underdogs and youth energizes losing teams. But for now we will lay it with the Cardinals tonight. Huge starting pitcher advantage for the Cards in this one with a 36% advantage with Flaherty. St Louis also holds a nice bullpen edge over the Royals. St Louis should dominate in the batters box with a 21% advantage as the Cards his lefty starters on the road 13% above league average. Let’s take a look at home poorly Danny Duffy has performed at home this season. He is 1-5 with a whopping 6.48 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. Opponents are hitting .288 against him. Only three times this season has he permitted less than 4 earned runs in a home start. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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08-10-18 | Diamondbacks -123 v. Reds | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -123 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
955 Arizona at Cincinnati Buchholz & DeSclafani Fair price for the far better team here as we look to back Buchholz on the road. When healthy Clay has been a very good pitcher in his career. After two years struggling with injuries he’s back and resembling his old self. Our numbers count his injury struggles in the past and he still rates slightly higher than his mound opponent. The Arizona bullpen has a huge 18% advantage in this contest. The Diamondbacks also have a wide 14% offensive edge, as Cincinnati is 17% below league average at home vs right-handed starters. Buchholz has an excellent 2.10 ERA and 0.93 WHIP on the road, he also hold opponents to a .198 batting average. He owns a 29 to 7 SO to W ratio. DeSclafani has a 5.65 ERA at home with a 1.47 WHIP. Opponents are batting .287 against him in Cincinnati. PLAY ARIZONA |
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08-09-18 | Pirates v. Giants -128 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -128 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
908 Pittsburgh at San Francisco Nova & Suarez Time to take advantage of one of the biggest home/road dichotomies in the league. Ivan Nova has been solid pitching at PNC Park, but look at what he has done the last few years on the road. This season 5.40ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Last year 5.02 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with a 3-12 record. In 2016 he had a 6.65 ERA And a 1.46 WHIP. Andrew Suarez is coming off his worst start of the season allowing 8 earned runs and 10 hits in just 5 innings of work. He has been a much better pitcher at home posting a 3.64 ERA and 1.07 WHIP on the season. Our numbers rate him 13% better than Nova, with the bullpens rating virtually identical. But the Giants have a large 14% hitting edge as the Pirates are 11% below league average on the road vs left-handed starters. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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08-08-18 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays +134 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
968 Boston at Toronto Johnson & Hauschild We’ve been looking for a chance to go against Brian Johnson and the price is right here to take the underdog Jays. While the numbers say Johnson has a 2.22 ERA on the road this year, he has been extremely lucky. His road WHIP is 1.56 and he permits a .293 opponent batting average. Last year on the road he had an 8.22 ERA with a 1.96 WHIP and a .324 opponent batting average. Our numbers show Mike Hauschild to be 6% better than Johnson, with the bullpen being virtually equal. Boston hits right-handed starters on the road equally as well as Toronto hits lefties at home. This line should be closer to even. PLAY TORONTO |
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08-07-18 | Cardinals -155 v. Marlins | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
903 St Louis at Miami Mikolas & Lopez We have a 15% starting pitching edge for the Cardinals, as well as a 12% bullpen advantage. St Louis also has the dominant offense by 14%, as the Marlins are 11% below league average at home vs right-handed starters. In home games Pablo Lopez has a 5.60 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and allows a .304 opponent batting average. While Mikolas is known for his outstanding 2.01 ERA at home, he’s actually done very well on the road. He’s 6-0 with a solid 3.56 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and a .244 opponent batting average. Let’s lay it with the Cards, a team that looks ready to make a playoff push. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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08-05-18 | Rockies +103 v. Brewers | Top | 5-4 | Win | 103 | 1 h 24 m | Show |
909 Colorado at Milwaukee Gray & Miley While John Gray has looked like an entirely different pitcher since being sent down to the minors. This handicap is based strictly on going against Wade Miley. The Brewers pitcher has long been a fringe starter simply because he pitches from the left side. If he had been a righty he would have been out of baseball years ago. He has 206 career innings with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. IN 2017 his ERA was 5.61 with a WHIP of 1.73. In 2016 his ERA was 6.17 with a WHIP of 1.57. In 29.1 innings of work this season he has a 1.53 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP. Do we trust a 200 inning career or 29 innings this season? If you have followed our work for any time I believe you know the answer to that. Small sample sizes get the novice better excited, but a veteran capper knows how to take advantage of blips on the radar. Our numbers give Gay a whopping 53% advantage over Miley. Milwaukee does have a 6% bullpen edge, and a 7% hitting advantage. But those numbers cannot even come close to the starter advantage for the Rockies, who actually hit league average on the road vs lefties. PLAY COLORADO |
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08-04-18 | Royals v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
972 Kansas City at Minnesota Smith & Berrios Burch Smith is one of the worst starting pitchers in our database. He rates as 35% worse than an average Major League pitcher. The Kansas City bullpen traded away its two most reliable arms at the trade deadline. Yesterday the Royals bullpen threw 101 total pitches. That likely means the Smith will be taking one for the team today. He has a 6.18 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in his career. Berrios has been lights out at home the past two years. This season he is 7-2 with a 2.99 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP. Last year he was 9-1 with a 2.41 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. He is coming off a poor start in which he went 4.2 innings allowing 3 earned runs and nine hits. Even though the line in this game is high, it’s still a bargain. But we are going to lay the 1 1/2 runs here as we really expect these Twin bats to pound Burch Smith. PLAY MINNESOTA RUN LINE |
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08-03-18 | Angels +182 v. Indians | 7-4 | Win | 182 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
919 Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Barria & Clevinger Word out of LA is that Mike Trout is questionable tonight which is why this line is so high. Questionable means there is a 75% chance he plays, but the line is saying he won’t. Even if he doesn’t suit up we are still getting quite a bargain in this price. Cleveland does have a 9% starter advantage here and a solid bullpen edge. But the Angels have a 9% hitting advantage here as LA is 15% better than league average against right-handed starters on the road. Interesting numbers from Mike Clevinger as he pitches much better on the road than at Progressive Field. This year he has a 4.26 ERA at home compared to a 2.69 ERA on the road. At home he has a 1.31 WHIP and is allowing opponents to hit .270 against him. Last year he had a 3.79 ERA at home compared to a 2.45 ERA away. His WHIP was 1.35 at home and he let opponents hit 46 points better here than on the road. The Indians are 7-5 since the All-Star break but have faced a very easy schedule of Minnesota, Detroit, Pittsburgh and Texas. The Tribe doesn’t deserve to be a favorite of this magnitude. PLAY LAS ANGELS ANGELS |
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08-02-18 | Rockies v. Cardinals -138 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 18 m | Show | |
952 Colorado at St Louis Senzatela & Mikolas Pretty simple handicap here as we rate Mikolas with a massive 35% starting pitching advantage in this one. That number doesn’t even consider the home/road dichotomy of these two starters. Senzatela has an ERA over 7 on the road this year, although his advanced numbers are better than that. But Mikolas has a 2.09 ERA at home to go along with a 1.01 WHIP. He’s a perfect 6-0 in day games. While the Colorado bullpen is 7% better, the Cardinals own a 5% hitting advantage against the Rockies. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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07-31-18 | Mets +168 v. Nationals | Top | 4-25 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
953 NY Mets at Washington Matz & Roark This contest is very similar to our play on the Orioles with Bundy the other day. We have a pitcher that has struggled his last three starts, while everyone is ignoring the larger sample size. Steven Matz has allowed 12 earned runs in his last 17.1 innings. This is opposed to his solid 3.79 ERA on the season. Matz has really struggled at Shea Stadium the past three years with a 5-13 record, 1-9 the past two years. We are getting his one the road, off three poor outings, at an inflated price. Tanner Roark is coming off his best start of the season, eight shutout innings with an 11-1 strikeout to walk ratio. But that game was pitched in Milwaukee. He’s been dreadful at home the last two years. He’s 2-6 with a 5.98 ERA here this year, and 6-6 with a 5.04 ERA last year. Let’s grab the nicely priced underdog as the Nationals continue to underperform. PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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07-30-18 | Giants -102 v. Padres | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
907 San Francisco at San Diego Holland & Lauer A couple of mediocre lefties take the hill for these two western squads on Monday. Holland has been downright terrible the two previous years, but he’s been very productive for the Giants this season. It looked like his best years were far behind him when he pitched quality ball for the Rangers. But he’s starting to resemble himself from those years. Because he has been bad for so long, he’s an afterthought in the betting marketplace. But that only gives us value tonight. We have Holland rated 14% better than Lauer. While San Diego did have a sizable bullpen edge, that’s gone now with Cimber and Hand being traded to Cleveland. Without them the bullpen has really struggled. With the offenses grading out equally, we can take advantage of the Padres recent struggles. As this team has really taken a step back the last month or so. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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07-29-18 | Rays v. Orioles +109 | Top | 5-11 | Win | 109 | 3 h 33 m | Show |
968 Tampa Bay at Baltimore Chirinos & Bundy We love to play against overreactions and small sample sizes, and today we have a classic example. Yonny Chirinos is getting a chance to start again for the Rays. He’s been good this season but he hasn’t racked up many innings because of injury. We like his future but he can’t expect to go very long today. He opposes Dylan Bundy who is the established ace of this staff. But we are getting him and the O’s today in an underdog role based on his current form. In his last three starts he has been lit up for 15 earned runs in 12.1 innings of work. Thats a short sample size people overreact to. The time to play against Bundy was three games ago, not now when everyone and their brother a going against him. The buy market is screaming for the Orioles today and we take advantage. Sports betting is all about ebbs and flows. Selling high and buying low. We have these two starters rated virtually even. While the Rays do have a 12% better bullpen, the hitting advantage is all Orioles. Baltimore hits righties at home 17% better than the Rays hit righties on the road. We look for the Baltimore bats to do some pounding today. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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07-28-18 | Cubs v. Cardinals +100 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
902 Chicago at St Louis Quintana & Mikolas Very fair number here to back Miles Mikolas at home. He’s been dynamite on this mound all season with an amazing 1.99 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Our numbers show him at 21% stronger than Quintana, while the bullpens are almost exactly rated even. St Louis does have a 5% offensive edge against lefties at home, compared to the Cubs road work against righties. We go against the public team here in a major rivalry game. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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07-27-18 | Phillies -106 v. Reds | 4-6 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
953 Philadelphia at Cincinnati Pivetta & DeSciafani Small sample sizes are our friend. When others overreact to recent form we step in and take advantage. It worked for us last night going against what had been the red hot Pirates, and we believe we have another edge to exploit here. Nick Pivetta has terrific stuff, he’s dominating in strikeouts per inning. But he as many young pitchers are deals with inconsistency. Others will look at his last three starts and see eight earned runs in 14.2 innings of work. Doing that against the light hitting Padres, Orioles and Pirates. But closer inspection shows an 18 to 3 strikeout to walk ratio in those games. In his last start after the All-Star Break he had 9 strikeouts without a walk against the Padres. We have the Phillies righty graded 24% stronger than Anthony DeSciafani. Along with sizable edges in the bullpen and offensively, the Phillies are a bargain on Friday. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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07-26-18 | Mets +140 v. Pirates | 12-6 | Win | 140 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
903 NY Mets at Pittsburgh Matz & Kingham Great spot to go against the Pirates who had a long winning streak broken in Cleveland yesterday. In that game two of its red hot hitters were injured and unlikely to play today. Pittsburgh is basically a league average team who is coming off a nice run, but the Pirates have shown it can have a losing streak just as easily. The starting pitcher matchup favors the host slightly, but the Mets bullpen has the same small advantage. Neither team is in its preferred hitting situation. As the Mets are 9% below league average on the road against righties, while the Bucs are 7% below average at home vs lefties. If this game had been played two weeks ago Pittsburgh would have been a -120 favorite. Because of a recent two week stretch we are getting a great amount of value with the visitor. PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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07-25-18 | Astros -118 v. Rockies | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -118 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
977 Houston at Colorado Morton & Gray Two superior starters take the mound in Colorado. Which isn’t always a good pitching result because of the altitude. But in this case we rate the host slightly better from a starter standpoint. The Houston bullpen along with the Yankees are the two most lethal in all of baseball. We see a 26% bullpen edge for the Astros here. We also prefer the Houston bats by 10% against right-handed starters, as opposed to the host. Charlie Morton has been very consistent this year at home and away. Jon Gray has been consistent too, but he’s having a down year overall. In fact, the Rockies had sent him to the minors in order to work out his problems. We feel much better about Morton here in regards to this start, as we can’t guarantee the old Gray has returned. PLAY HOUSTON |
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07-24-18 | Pirates +172 v. Indians | Top | 9-4 | Win | 172 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
925 Pittsburgh at Cleveland Musgrove & Bieber In interleague action this year the National League has dominated. That’s a major break from the American League having the upper hand for years. Pittsburgh continued that streak with a rain shortened win over the Tribe yesterday. Here we find two young hurlers going head to head, and we believe the line is drastically high. Both starters rate equally but let’s take a closer look at Shane Bieber. Opponents are hitting .291 against him this season, with a 1.34 WHIP. While the 3.53 ERA is fine, that number is sure to rise based on the lack of success he has had getting opponents out. He’s been very lucky in allowing just four home runs in 43.1 innings of work. Laying such a large favorite into a team on a long winning streak is something you should rarely do. The closer dive into Bieber’s numbers make us a buyer on the Pirates. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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07-22-18 | Dodgers -115 v. Brewers | 11-2 | Win | 100 | 2 h 45 m | Show | |
907 LA Dodgers at Milwaukee Wood & Suter Cheap number in our opinion on the Dodgers here, especially because Hader and Knebel combined for 55 pitches yesterday. When handicapping the Brewers the key point is to pay special attention to the bullpen. It may not be a major concern coming ogg the All-Star break, but neither will be 100% on Sunday afternoon. We show the pitching overall to be a wash, with the Dodgers starter holding a slight edge, but the bullpen making the pitching even. We do like LA on the road against a left-handed starter, as Milwaukee at home vs lefties are 7% below league average. PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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07-21-18 | Giants v. A's -130 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
982 San Francisco at Oakland Bumgarner & Cahill While the San Francisco lefty owns a 9% talent edge in this contest, the situation and history clearly shows Cahill to be a play on here. The bullpen slightly favors the host. Offensively the A’s have dominated at home against left-handed starters. Oakland has a whopping 17% offensive edge in this game. MD has posted an 8-11 record on the road the past three seasons, as he isn’t nearly as dominant outside of San Francisco. Cahill is off his two worst starts of the season and is well rested to resume what had been an excellent campaign. He’s been nearly untouchable at home with a 0.64 ERA and 0.79 WHIP. He has a major home/road dichotomy in which we can take advantage. PLAY OAKLAND |
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07-20-18 | Astros v. Angels +117 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 12 m | Show |
922 Houston at LA Angels Keuchel & Skaggs With the Angels now 14 games behind the Astros and 9 behind Seattle in the wildcard chase, this team needs to start the second half of the season in style. And the situation screams for the host here. The Astros just had a number of players flying into and out of the nation’s capital for the All-Star Game. It’s a great honor to be a participant in those festivities but it wrecks havoc on your body clock. As opposed to the Angels, the Astros had a major group who were in Washington DC this week. That’s a major advantage for the Angels here in what is sure to be a tough night for many players. Especially offensively as the first game after the break traditionally is lower scoring. While both starters are in excellent current form, we prefer Skaggs in this matchup. Our numbers have him as a rising star that’s being undervalued in the marketplace. The offenses rate very close to even, but the situational advantage hurts the visitor. While Houston has the vastly superior bullpen, we believe the wrong team is favored here. PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS |
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07-14-18 | Rays v. Twins -130 | Top | 19-6 | Loss | -130 | 1 h 13 m | Show |
966 Tampa Bay at Minnesota Archer & Berrios Chris Archer back from the DL has had a very disappointing year. He’s still rated 7% better than an average starting pitcher, but he just hasn’t been the same this season. Jose Berrios on the other hand has been excellent, with a 20% better number than his mound opponent today. The Minnesota bullpen rates 11% stronger as well, so the pitching should be a dominant advantage on Saturday. Then we turn to the offenses where Minnesota rates 15% higher than Tampa Bay against right-handed starters. The line is very fair for the home team as the Twins grab the victory. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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07-13-18 | Cubs v. Padres +115 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
912 Chicago Cubs at San Diego Chatwood & Richard Great opportunity to go against our lowest rated starting pitcher at a plus money price. Tyler Chatwood is 44% below average for a major league starter. He just can’t keep the opposition off base. Chatwood comes in with a horrendous 1.78 WHIP on the season, which is even worse his last seven starts at 2.01. While the Cubs offense is 18% stronger than the Padres, the San Diego pitching edges rule this contest. San Diego has a 36% edge on the starting rubber, as well as an 11% advantage in the bullpen. Fading public teams is a good way to build your bankroll, as we do so here. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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07-13-18 | Nationals v. Mets -118 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
904 Washington at NY Mets Roark & Syndergaard The Nationals are really struggling right now, especially offensively. They only have a 3% offensive advantage in this contest. Washington has invested heavily in the bullpen and is still just 4% stronger than that of the Mets. The huge advantage for the host here is on the starting bump, where Syndergaard is 52% better than Roark. That’s one of the biggest starter advantages you will see, and yet the price is very manageable. Roark is 3-11 on the season and in his last seven games he sports a 6.99 ERA. He has permitted 13 earned runs in his last 11 innings, and one of those opponents was the light hitting Marlins. The Nationals have scored 23 total runs in 8 games this month when not playing the lowly Miami Marlins. Don’t expect much offense against the Mets ace. PLAY NY METS |
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07-12-18 | Blue Jays +170 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
961 Toronto at Boston Happ & Price A battle of two solid lefties takes place tonight in Fenway Park. While the matchup slightly favors the host, the batting edge is all with the visitor. JA Happ is coming off two bad performances and now takes on a very good hitting Red Sox team. But all that does is increase the value on the road dog. Small sample sizes are the quickest way to ruin for sports gamblers, and we would rather take a look at how he has done for the year and his career. We rate Happ 11% better than David Price with the bullpens having a slight edge for the Sox. We talked about the Red Sox hitting of lefty starters at home, but it’s only 5% better than the Blue Jays against lefties on the road. Happ is 4-1 with a 2.83 ERA on the road this season, with a good WHIP of 1.11. Price at home is 3.63 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Great value taking the better starter in this price range. PLAY TORONTO |
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07-11-18 | Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 7 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 110 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
912 Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Maeda & Lucchesi Two of our highest rated pitchers tangle tonight, and neither is considered to be elite by the general public. We rate Kenta Maeda 26% better than league average, and Joey Lucchesi 12% above the league norm. The home plate umpire is also known for a wide strike zone which gives us another advantage. Both starters have been on their game as of late so we expect a solid pitchers duel. The bullpens are also better than average by 7% and 12%. Look for a nice pitchers duel out west. PLAY UNDER |
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07-10-18 | Diamondbacks -103 v. Rockies | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
957 Arizona at Colorado Corbin & Anderson Rare when we get all key components lining up on the same squad in this price range. Patrick Corbin is an All-Star this season for good reason. We rate him 38% better than Tyler Anderson in this contest. The Arizona bullpen has a 2% edge while the offenses are virtually even. As good as Corbin has been at home he has a 2.32 ERA and 1.03 WHIP on the road. Anderson comes in hot after back to back eight inning shutouts, but he has pitched much better on the road with a perfect 4-0 mark. Nice price on the better team here as we back the visitor. PLAY ARIZONA |
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07-09-18 | Reds +180 v. Indians | Top | 7-5 | Win | 180 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
921 Cincinnati at Cleveland DeSciafani & Clevinger Surprised by this high line considering how well the Reds have played over the last month. Cincinnati also plays very well in this in-state series. We do rate Clevinger 12% better than his opposition today, but keep in mind he has pitched much better on the road than at home in his career. The last two seasons his ERA is above one run better when he pitches on the road. Cleveland does have a sizable bullpen edge, but the offenses are even. Chances are Cleveland wins this game, but the true odds are much lower than the current markets indicate. Nice price on the red hot Reds. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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07-07-18 | Rays v. Mets +121 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
926 Tampa Bay at New York Snell & Matz Blake Snell has been the hottest pitcher in the league as of late. But take a look at his home/road splits. An ERA of 0.87 with a WHIP of 0.87 at home. On the road an ERA of 3.47 with a WHIP of 1.14. He’s very good on the road but not unworldly as he has been at home. We like both these pitchers but Snell does rate 14% better than Matz. New York does have a slight edge in the bullpen, but the big advantage here is in hitting. The Mets are 16% better than Tampa Bay against left-handed starters. In fact, the Rays are a whopping 15% below league average. In what looks to be a low scoring game we get the Mets at solid plus money in a game that should have been lined around pick. PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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07-06-18 | Braves v. Brewers -115 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
958 Atlanta at Milwaukee Foltynewicz & Peralta Two quality young starters take the mound in this one. Everyone knows the breakout year Mike F has had this season, but not as many know about Freddy Peralta. This young righty has impressed thus far and we rate him 21% better than Foltynewicz, and for those who have been following, we love Mike F. The Milwaukee bullpen is deep and talented which gives them a edge against this also solid Braves bullpen. Offensively our numbers show a 4% advantage offensively for the host. With the public jumping on what they consider to be a live dog, we will back the Brewers at a cheaper number. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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07-06-18 | Rangers -101 v. Tigers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
967 Texas at Detroit Colon & Zimmermann At the age of 102 Bartolo Colon rates 13% better than Jordan Zimmerman. That’s really all you need to know about the former Washington National. Texas owns a 9% bullpen edge and is slightly better offensively. Detroit has been on a terrible run after showing signs of life about a month ago. But now the Tigers are playing up to its talent level, which isn’t very good. Nice number for the Rangers here. PLAY TEXAS |
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07-05-18 | Angels v. Mariners -126 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
916 Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Barria & Gonzales Sizable starting pitcher advantage of 18% here for the Mariners lefty. Throw in a 3% bullpen advantage and an 8% offensive edge and we have a clear play on the host here. Barria has done a nice job for the Angels but in our opinion he’s pitching over his head. His rest of year projections have him rated as a 4.91 ERA pitcher with a 1.35 WHIP. He’s been pretty fortunate in exit velocity for what he has in talent. Gonzales was hit hard against New York and Boston, but he’s fared well when stepping down in class. The Angels have plenty of holes in this lineup to pitch around the top three hitters. PLAY SEATTLE |
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07-04-18 | Rays v. Marlins +105 | 0-3 | Win | 105 | 2 h 46 m | Show | |
968 Tampa Bay at Miami Andriese & Urena The Rays outlasted the Marlins yesterday in 16 innings where both teams went deep into the bullpens. The top three relievers for the Rays threw a total of 77 pitches, including 42 for the closer Sergio Romo. Now Matt Andriese who has been a bridge pitcher in most cases is being called on to pitch a long outing. Miami’s three best relievers totaled 55 pitches last night. But Urena has had starters pitches all season long. While Jose Urena is 0-7 at home on the season his stats have been pretty good. A 4.25 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and a .255 opponent batting average. He has thrown 86 pitches or better in six straight starts. That’s a sizable edge here for the Marlins. PLAY MIAMI |
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07-03-18 | Red Sox v. Nationals -107 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 51 m | Show |
918 Boston at Washington Johnson & Roark Brian Johnson owns a 4.54 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in his career. He was once a highly thought of prospect but he’s never really panned out. Because of injuries the Red Sox were forced to promote him to the big leagues. He doesn’t figure into Boston’s future. Roark has a 3-9 record this year but a passable 4.10 ERA, his WHIP is 1.27. But his career has been a good one thus far with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. He just hasn’t gotten much run support this year. Our numbers suggest Roark is 7% better than Johnson, with the Nationals bullpen having a whopping 26% advantage. The Nationals are also solid hitting against lefties, while Boston is 10% lower than league average against right handed starters. We have the host as a solid favorite here and the betting markets are giving us a cheap price. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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07-01-18 | Indians v. A's +121 | Top | 15-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
924 Cleveland at Oakland Clevenger & Montas Mike Clevenger has been terrific all year but he’s about to reach the same amount of MLB innings as he did last year in his rookie season. In fact, management was so worried about that fact that they pushed him back an extra day for rest. Starters are used to pitching every five days, so that little tweak may have an effect on his today. Frankie Montas isn’t a strikeout pitcher but he doesn’t have to be in this ballpark. He’s coming off a poor start but we expect him to bounce back strong today. The only real edge the Tribe has today is in the bullpen, but Miller continues to be out of action. Nice price on the host here as Oakland has beaten up on the Indians pitching staff in this series. PLAY OAKLAND |
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06-30-18 | Pirates v. Padres -115 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
964 Pittsburgh at San Diego Williams & Lucchesi Nice edges across the board for the Padres, especially with the starters. We rate Lucchesi 17% better than Williams. The Padres bullpen is a whopping 16% stronger than that of the Pirates. Offensively neither team stands out but San Diego does have a 2% advantage. None of the key bullpen arms went yesterday for the Padres. This line should be much higher in our opinion. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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06-29-18 | Nationals v. Phillies -109 | Top | 17-7 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
902 Washington at Philadelphia Fedde & Pivetta This is the second time in a week Erick Fedde has faced the Phillies. Last time out he had his longest start of the season going 6 full innings and allowing 3 earned runs. Philadelphia hit .318 against the young righty. Nick Pivetta has had a somewhat breakout season for the Phillies. He does have a 4-6 record with a 4.06 ERA. But he has 101 strikeouts in just 84.1 innings of work. He has been excellent at home with a 3.04 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Twice this year he has permitted six earned runs in a game, one of those times was against this Nationals squad. So it’s a bit of a payback game for Pivetta. We rate the Philly righty 29% higher than Fedde. While the Nationals have a 7% better bullpen the offenses are equal. Huge starting pitcher edge here for the host puts us squarely on the Phillies. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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06-28-18 | A's -103 v. Tigers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
961 Oakland at Detroit Manaea & Fulmer Sean Manaea started the year on fire including tossing a no-hitter. Then he regressed a bit and everyone lost interest. But he’s back to pitching well in his last three starts, going going 20.1 innings and allowing just 6 earned runs. Michael Fulmer had been thought of as a major building block for the Tigers. But he’s struggled this season and his name has been brought up in trade talk. Our ratings have Oakland better across the board with a 7% starting pitching edge, 3% relief advantage and 6% offensive edge. Detroit has struggled to step up against quality teams and this Athletics team is holding its own in the best division in baseball. PLAY OAKLAND |
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06-27-18 | Rockies v. Giants -141 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
910 Colorado at San Francisco Freeland & Bumgarner Rare chance tp get an elite pitcher at home in this price range. The Giants are playing good ball right now and Madison is coming in off his best start in this injury shortened season. Bumgarner has been excellent at home in his career, allowing opposing batters to hit .216 this year, .228 last year, .198 in 2016 and .192 in 2015. We rate Mad Bum 19% better than Freeland. The bullpens are equal, but the Giants hot lefty starters 16% better than the Rockies do. Here we have a team catching its stride and having its ace on the mound. Cheap number we can take advantage of. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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06-26-18 | Reds +150 v. Braves | Top | 5-3 | Win | 150 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
955 Cincinnati at Atlanta Harvey & Sanchez Having success in handicapping sports is very much like playing the stock market. You want to buy low and sell high. While we can’t fully back Harvey here in a buy low scenario, we are all in on selling Anibel Sanchez. The 13 year veteran has posted a 2.55 ERA on the season in 42.1 innings of work. If the season ended now it would be a career best season. But there is an excellent chance of regression with Sanchez. The past three seasons he has posted ERAs of 6.41, 5.87 and 4.99. That was over 415.2 innings of work. So basically we have ten times as much data saying he is a very poor pitcher at this stage of his career, as opposed to a single 42 inning sample size. We rate Harvey 6% better than Sanchez with the offenses being virtually equal. The Atlanta bullpen is better which is why the Braves are favored, along with home field advantage. But over the last month or so Atlanta has reverted back to the pack while the Reds have been surging. We can buy the Braves as a slight favorite here, but this line is just silly. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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06-25-18 | Padres +140 v. Rangers | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
919 San Diego at Texas Lucchesi & Hamels Nice underdog price here with a Padres team that continues to be under the radar. Lucchesi is coming off the worst start of his career which led to a stint on the DL. But until that poor start which can be attributed to injury he had been outstanding. A major advantage is the way he hides the ball and his funky delivery, which should really be effective against an American League squad. Cole Hamels has had a nice bounce back year, but most of his success has been on the road. He’s 1-5 with a 4.91 ERA at home. We rate the Padres starter 23% stronger than Hamels, with last year really holding the lefty back. San Diego has a 5% advantage in the bullpen, while Texas does have a 7% hitting edge. But we expect the Rangers to struggle against an unfamiliar lefty, and the value is on the dog. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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06-24-18 | Marlins +157 v. Rockies | Top | 8-5 | Win | 157 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
961 Miami at Colorado Smith & Marquez This line is majorly inflated because of the getaway record for the Miami Marlins. Miami has really struggled in the last game of a series. But is that really a trend or just a small sample size? Keep in mind each series ends with a different starting pitcher on the hill. Each series is against a different team. It’s not like the coaching staff empties the bench in the final game of each series. Therefore we don’t respect this trend, while the linebackers do. That gives us a huge edge here in this number. Our analysis shows this to be a far more even game than the markets. We rate Caleb Smith at the better starter, with the offenses being equal. The big edge for the Rockies is the bullpen. Let’s take a look at German Marquez as of late. On the season he has a 7.45 ERA at home. In his last three overall starts has has permitted 15 earned runs in 16 innings of work. Does that should like someone you want to back in this price range? PLAY MIAMI |
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06-23-18 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates +111 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
906 Arizona at Pittsburgh Greinke & Musgrove We backed the Diamondbacks last night and were finally rewarded in 13 innings. Today we look for the Pirates to rebound. Greinke has an enormous home/road split. Over the last two seasons Zack is 16-2 at home and only 7-10 when on the road. While win/loss records don’t mean as much as other advanced stats, the disparity is rather shocking. this season his home ERA is 2.40 while on the road it’s 5.66. We simply cannot back Arizona as a road favorite with his road numbers. Musgrove is coming off his worst effort of the season as Cincinnati pounded him. We expect a rebound effort. Arizona has the bullpen advantage, but other than that we like the Pirates in every category. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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06-22-18 | Diamondbacks -112 v. Pirates | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
951 Arizona at Pittsburgh Corbin & Nova Patrick Corbin faces the Pirates 11 days ago and Pittsburgh pounded him hard. Now on the road with a 2.78 ERA and an undefeated record, we expect Corbin to get his revenge. We rate the Diamondbacks lefty 16% better than Ivan Nova. The Arizona bullpen is also better by 11%. Pittsburgh does have a 5% offensive edge. As the Arizona offense gets healthier the more we can expect the D’Backs to hit, and Nova is very hittable. PLAY ARIZONA |
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06-20-18 | Tigers v. Reds -125 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 2 h 15 m | Show |
972 Detroit at Cincinnati Fulmer & Mahle Michael Fulmer was once considered the ace of this Tigers program but he just hasn’t progressed. In his last seven starts he is posting a 4.76 ERA and he’s never been a guy who can beat you with the strikeout. We have him rated 15% below a league average hurler, which is very disappointing to the Tigers management. Tyler Mahle didn’t have the same early success as Fulmer, but he’s developed better than his American League competitor. In his last seven starts he’s allowed a 3.53 ERA. While Detroit is a pretty good pitchers park this Cincinnati venue is great for hitters. We rate the Reds 17% better offensively in this matchup as this team really does have some productive bats. Cheap number here in this afternoon affair. PLAY CINCINNATI |