Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-02-20 | San Francisco +3.5 v. Nevada | 85-60 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
701 San Francisco at Nevada First of a home and home series tonight in Reno. Coming off of playing Virginia and Rhode Island, this is a slight step-down in class for the Dons. San Francisco does a great job of protecting the ball, and is coming off two poor shooting games from around the rim. Nevada is a solid team that has been getting a bit lucky when it comes to defending the three. Opponents have made just 21 of 88 from beyond the arc, something we don’t see continuing. The line has now gotten to the point where we find value on the Dons. This game is going to come down to the wire in our opinion. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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12-01-20 | Cleveland State +8 v. Toledo | 61-70 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
613 Cleveland State at Toledo The Vikings are slowly making their way back to the program they were in the past. They are now projected to be a contender this year in the Horizon, after not winning more than 12 games in any season the past five years. This is the first game of the season Toledo just doesn’t have the guard play we look for in backing a favorite of this size. The Rockets have played three games thus far against Bradley, Oakland and Xavier. In those games Toledo was 35 for 103 from two point range. It’s been hot shooting from downtown that has kept them competitive. Can’t expect that here against a good defensive team like the Vikings. PLAY CLEVELAND STATE |
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12-01-20 | Nebraska-Omaha +20 v. Creighton | 67-94 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
605 Nebraska Omaha at Creighton The Mavericks have defended well around the basket in its first three games. Ranking 31st against two point shooting. Not one of its opponents reached 50% from that range. Creighton is a talented team that is expected to contend in the Big East. It struggled from deep against its only opponent thus far, North Dakota State. Our numbers show that this line is too high to ask the Bluejays to extend. Sure they can get hot from the outside, but that’s not something they can bank on here. Let’s take the points with a team that matches up well around the basket. PLAY NEBRASKA OMAHA |
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11-30-20 | Stanford v. Alabama -1.5 | 82-64 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
878 Stanford at Alabama Key matchup is the Stanford defense against the Alabama offense. Nate Oats and his squad want to run you out of the building by making this a track meet. With four returning starters and a talented bench, this will be a tough assignment for the Cardinal. Stanford had to deal with covid and haven’t played a game yet. And we have not been impressed by the PAC-12 as a whole. The long travel for the Cardinal is also a concern. The Tide is rising and we can’t see the Cardinal stopping them. PLAY ALABAMA |
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11-29-20 | Houston Baptist v. Arizona State -34.5 | Top | 77-100 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
307102 Houston Baptist at Arizona State The Huskies went 4-25 last year and 0-9 when not playing a league participant. They are expected to once again bring up the rear of the Southland Conference. This is a team that lacks talent and depth, two traits that don’t work against this fast paced and talented Sun Devils squad. Arizona State is taking a huge step down in class after facing Rhode Island and Villanova. Off a loss in which it scored just 74 points, we can see this team continuing to score at win regardless of the lead. Lay it in a clear talent and depth mismatch. PLAY ARIZONA STATE |
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11-29-20 | Browns v. Jaguars OVER 48.5 | Top | 27-25 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
257 Cleveland at Jacksonville Browns stats have been heavily influenced by bad weather games this season. Now playing in Florida in a game not expected to be heat related, we can see both these offenses having success. Both teams have major holes defensively in this game. Jacksonville is extremely thin in the defensive backfield. Cleveland on the other hand will be playing without its best two defenders, likely ProBowl talent. The line has risen this week but we still find plenty of value. PLAY OVER |
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11-28-20 | Drexel v. Pittsburgh -10 | 74-83 | Loss | -107 | 1 h 15 m | Show | |
704 Drexel at Pittsburgh The Dragons are predicted in the lower echelon of the Colonial this season. They are bringing back four starters from a 14 win team. But the 14 victories have been the most in the past five seasons. Pittsburgh is expected to be in the lower half of the Atlantic Coast, a much stronger conference. But Jeff Capel has increased the victories from 8 to 14 to 16 last year. After dropping the season opener to St Francis PA, we look for a major bounce back today. This is a team on the upswing, and despite the fine guard play of the Dragons, we lay the points with the Panthers. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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11-28-20 | Texas Tech +11 v. Oklahoma State | 44-50 | Win | 100 | 20 h 30 m | Show | |
221 Texas Tech at Oklahoma State The Red Raiders have cashed four straight in this series by margins of 20, 38.5, 3.5 and 11 points. Although just 1-8 SU on the road under Matt Wells, we like the matchup here for the visitor. Oklahoma State started the season on fire, winning four straight before losing to Texas 41-34. Since that defeat the Cowboys have been outgained by Kansas State by 115 yards, and Oklahoma by 246 yards. In fact, the Sooners actually doubled the Oklahoma State yardage. These two clubs are much closer in talent than this number says, give us the Red Raiders plus the points. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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11-28-20 | Northern Illinois v. Western Michigan -19 | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 15 m | Show | |
198 Northern Illinois at Western Michigan The Husky defense hasn’t shown any semblance of stopping the opposition thus far. Allowing point totals of 49, 40 and 31 points in three straight losses. Northern is being outgained on the ground by 2.1 yards per attempt, as this team is losing the battle in the trenches badly. Western has scored 58, 41 and 52 points in its three contests. Producing yardage totals of 484, 437 and 628. The Bronco defense is the weakness allowing 4.8 yards per carry, but the Huskies haven’t shown any ability to run the football and shorten the game. Add in the fact that the host is playing with revenge for a 17-14 season ending loss as a 9 point favorite. And we have a fired up squad that can name the score. PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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11-27-20 | Pepperdine v. UCLA -7 | 98-107 | Win | 100 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
622 Pepperdine at UCLA The Waves are expected to be in the upper echelon of the West Coast Conference, and the team returns four starters from a 16 win team from a year ago. The talent is solid but the line here is a bit cheap from the UCLA standpoint. We faded the Bruins at San Diego State, but this is still a very good basketball team. UCLA returned all five starters from a 19 game winning club from a year ago. They had a great deal of hype coming into the season, and this line looks as if that hype has been tempered. But that gives us value here as this line would have been three points higher if the Bruins won at San Diego State. PLAY UCLA |
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11-27-20 | Ohio +16.5 v. Illinois | 75-77 | Win | 100 | 2 h 8 m | Show | |
609 Ohio at Illinois Too many points here in our opinion as Ohio U has excellent guard play to keep this game close. Off back to back weak competition it is a step up game for the Bobcats. That said, the non-blowouts in those two games have given us plenty of spread value here. Illinois won by 62 and 59 points the first two outings, but neither of those teams play any defense. With a huge game against Baylor on deck, we can see the Illini taking Ohio U for granted here. PLAY OHIO |
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11-25-20 | UCLA v. San Diego State +3 | 58-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
686 UCLA at San Diego State Lots of Bruins love in the offseason after the way this team finished a year ago. Returning their entire starting lineup is also a reason why this club is getting love. But this is a new year and despite the lack of personnel changes, we can’t expect the team to be in full gear to start the season. San Diego State is once again the class of the Mountain West Conference. After a 30 win season and 8 of 12 players being upperclassmen, it’s hard to imagine this team as a home underdog. Sure the top scorer has gone, but this team has others who can pick up the slack. We are buying low on Brian Dutcher and the Aztecs, on one of the strongest home courts in the country, despite the lack of fans. PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE |
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11-25-20 | Idaho State +12 v. Santa Clara | 49-62 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
627 Idaho State at Santa Clara The Bengals are projected to be one of the lesser teams in the Big Sky this year, despite bringing back 3 of 5 starters. But we like the new additions and a couple key players returning from redshirts. Santa Clara has the size advantage but lacks the guard play to win in this price range. The Broncos won 20 games last year under Herb Sendek, but we see a regression this season. Keep in mind they were only 6-10 in conference action. The schedule was loaded with weak opposition. Take the points with the team with higher preseason upside. PLAY IDAHO STATE |
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11-23-20 | Rams v. Bucs -4.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 24 m | Show |
474 LA Rams at Tampa Bay This is a tough matchup for the Rams defense. While the numbers say this stop unit is elite, we look a bit deeper. The Rams haven’t played an offense with this many different weapons. Tampa Bay uses offensive schemes that the Rams struggle with. Offensively we all know how Goff struggles under pressure and on the road. Tampa Bay does a great job of getting pressure. Better than just about anyone on the Rams schedule. While we know the strength of this defense in rushing the QB from the inside, which is a problem for Brady. We have much more concerns about Goff and the LA offense. In what could turn into a lower scoring game, we back the MNF favorite. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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11-22-20 | Eagles v. Browns -2 | Top | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 162 h 49 m | Show |
452 Philadelphia at Cleveland Very surprised by the current line on this game as the Eagles continue to underperform. The only Philadelphia wins this season have come against a banged up 49ers team, the NY Giants and Dallas. Against the AFC Central the Eagles tied the Bengals and lost to Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Carson Wentz has struggled in the passing game all year, and Cleveland has limited 3 of the last 4 opponents to 153, 148 and 101 yards through the air. Cleveland has the much better run game and they take much better care of the football. The Browns loses this year have come against Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Oakland. Three of the top teams in the NFL. Against the NFC East they have won by 14 over Washington and 11 over Dallas. The Eagles simply don’t have the talent this year to compete on the road against a healthy Browns squad. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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11-21-20 | Boise State -14 v. Hawaii | 40-32 | Loss | -107 | 104 h 9 m | Show | |
423 Boise State at Hawaii The last three meetings were dominated by the Broncos, winning by margins of 21, 36 and 55 points. Many teams treat the trip to the islands as a vacation, but that won’t happen in the COVID era. Coming off seasons in which the Broncos won 12, 10, 11 and 10 games, the only blemish was a 51-17 beatdown at the hands of BYU. And we know now how good the Cougars are this year. We get a bit of line value here as the special teams, a major strength that has gone mostly unnoticed in betting markets. Hawaii has struggled when stepping up in class, losing to Wyoming by 24 and San Diego State by 24. The Warriors are in a really tough part of the schedule having just faced San Diego State, and having Nevada and San Jose State on deck. Boise State has been at it’s best in the role of road favorite. Posting a 35-17 spread mark over the past decade plus. PLAY BOISE STATE |
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11-21-20 | Indiana v. Ohio State OVER 66.5 | 35-42 | Win | 100 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
357 Indiana at Ohio State The Hoosiers haven’t ran for more than 3.1 yards per carry in any game this season, averaging just 2.6 ypc on the year. As a three touchdown underdog Tom Allen knows the only way to complete with the Buckeyes is to put the ball in the air. Say what you want about the offenses of Michigan and Michigan State, but those are still good defensive teams. And Indiana produced 342 and 320 yards against them. Defensively Indiana has yet to play an offense with a legit quarterback. This week they may be playing the Heisman Trophy Winner. Ohio State can and will score on everyone. Putting up point totals of 52, 38 and 49 points this season. With Wisconsin on deck we can see the starters leaving the game early. That said the Buckeyes are dominant in recruiting and the young players will likely be favored over the Indiana starters. PLAY OVER |
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11-20-20 | New Mexico +10 v. Air Force | 0-28 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
329 New Mexico at Air Force The new DC for the Lobos this year is Rocky Long. He was the head coach here for eleven years, and was the man in charge of San Diego State the past eight seasons. At SDST the Air Force was held to 24 points or less the past three meetings. So far at New Mexico the Lobos are permitting just 3.1 yards per carry. A far cry from the 4.3 ypc New Mexico permitted last year. The weakness for the Lobos is defending the pass, but Air Force has only completed 17 passes in three games. New Mexico has cashed 4 of the last 5 meetings with the Falcons. We feel this line is just too high to back the favorite. PLAY NEW MEXICO |
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11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks OVER 56.5 | 21-28 | Loss | -116 | 4 h 19 m | Show | |
321 Arizona at Seattle When breaking down these two teams by yards per play, we see just how dominant these two offenses are. Arizona ranks 1st in rushing yards per play at 5.28, and 7th in passing yards per play at 7.42. Seattle is 5th in passing yards per play at 7.80, and 6th in yards per rush at 4.87. In the NFL if you have a dual threat offense you can have much more success than only being good throwing or running the football. Defensively Arizona ranks 22nd defending the run, while Seattle is 28th vs the pass. So both teams have weaknesses that can be exploited. 71 points were scored in the first matchup. While second matchups typically are lower scoring, we simply can’t see how either of these two squads get stops. PLAY OVER |
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11-18-20 | Toledo v. Eastern Michigan +7 | Top | 45-28 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
312 Toledo at Eastern Michigan The Eagles have played Toledo virtually equal the past three seasons, despite playing two of those games on the road. In 2017 as a 13.5 point underdog Eastern lost by only five points. In 2018 Eastern won outright 28-26 as a 1.5 point underdog. Last year at Toledo the game went to overtime in a 37-34 loss as a 3.5 point underdog. In fact, the Eagles have covered each of the past four years. This despite the Rockets winning nine more games than the Eagles overall during that timeframe. Eastern Michigan is a tremendous underdog under Chris Creighton. Posting a 24-4-1 record when catching points the last 4+ seasons. With the Eagles coming in 0-2, we look for this to be a circled game for the host. The Rockets are only 3-9 straight up on the road as of late, including a last second loss at Western Michigan a week ago. PLAY EASTERN MICHIGAN |
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11-17-20 | Buffalo -31 v. Bowling Green | 42-17 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
303 Buffalo at Bowing Green The best vs the worst in the Mid-American Conference face off tonight. The last two seasons the Bulls won by margins of 42 and 30 points, and this year the talent level is even greater. Explosiveness and finishing drives is the key to this handicap. Buffalo should be able to name the score with a passing explosiveness rate ranking of 7th in the country, against a Falcons pass defensive rating of 125th. The Bulls are also 1st in the country in power success rate, so the running game should move the chains regularly. The visitor ranks 10th in the nation in finishing drives, while BG ranks 124th defending that category. Bowling Green is 122nd in passing success while the Bulls defend at a 11th ranked clip. Finishing drives is also a struggle for BG ranking 125th while Buffalo is 17th defensively. With no lookahead in sight for the Bulls we expect this to be wire to wire domination. Let’s fade one of the two worst teams in the country as Buffalo wins in impressive fashion. PLAY BUFFALO |
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11-16-20 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 43.5 | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
275 Minnesota at Chicago It’s not been reported too much nationally, but the Vikings lead the league in passing yards per play, and overall yards per play offensively. As well as 5.46 ypp running the football which also leads the NFL. So we not only have the most proficient offense overall in yardage, but the team is equally good running and passing. Defensively the Vikings rank 30th overall in defensive yards permitted per game. The Bears have reassigned the play calling duties, and are going to play faster offensively. That should allow this offense to compete with the Minnesota scoring unit. This is an extremely low total considering league average right now is around 51 points. PLAY OVER |
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11-15-20 | Bucs -5.5 v. Panthers | 46-23 | Win | 100 | 67 h 18 m | Show | |
261 Tampa Bay at Carolina While the per game numbers won’t support this play, other factors have to be considered. Tampa Bay has lost three games to teams with a combined 17-8 record. Carolina has won three games against teams with a combined 10-15 record. The Bucs completely laid an egg on Monday Night Football. Tom Brady has a 67% cover rate following a loss. And make no mistake that was an embarrassing loss to the Saints. There is a 63 point net differential between these teams and Carolina is just 1-3 straight up at home. The Panthers will also be without McCaffrey once again in this contest. The Bucs defense has been outstanding all season and played terrible just six days ago. We look for a statement win for the Bucs. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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11-14-20 | Nevada -13.5 v. New Mexico | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 14 m | Show |
179 Nevada & New Mexico in Las Vegas This game has been moved to Las Vegas because of the high cover counts in New Mexico. The Wolf Pack have looked impressive out of the gate with Impressive wins over Wyoming, UNLV and Utah State. They outgained the opposition in those contests by a total of 616 yards. The passing game has produced 420, 350 and 421 yards. Over the past five seasons Nevada has faced New Mexico three times. Covering by margins of 7 1/2, 6 and 13 1/2 points. The Wolf Pack just played in this building two weeks ago, which should be a sizable advantage. Head Coach Jay Norvell is 6-2 ATS as a road favorite. New Mexico has posted a combined record of 8-30 straight up the past three plus seasons. With this game being moved, this will be the third of five straight games away from Albuquerque. The Lobos pass defense has been horrendous thus far, allowing 891 passing yards in two games. The opposition is completing 73.1% of its passes. With Nevada QB Carson Strong coming in with a 9 to 0 TD to INT ratio, as well as an outstanding 171.7 quarterback rating. This looks like a long night for this Lobos stop unit. PLAY NEVADA |
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11-14-20 | Louisville +3 v. Virginia | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -107 | 117 h 22 m | Show |
225 Louisville at Virginia This is the rescheduled game from a week ago which was postponed because of covid. Two weeks ago the Cardinals had nine players sit out the Virginia Tech game because of the virus, but the entire team has tested negative heading into this week. The Cardinals fought hard in a 42-35 loss to the Hokies, and are really looking forward to getting back on the field. Louisville has won f of the last 5 meetings in this series, including an outright underdog victory a year ago. Despite the 2-5 record coming into this game, having an extra week to prepare should really help Scott Satterfield in his second season. There is only one team in this matchup with big play ability, and that’s the Cardinals. In seven games the offense has produced 45 plays of 20 yards or more, while allowing just 31. Virginia on the other hand in six games have produced just 19 plays of 20 yards or more, while allowing a whopping 44. While Louisville enters this contest off a loss, the Cavaliers pulled a major upset of North Carolina last time out. That despite allowing 443 yards through the air to the Tar Heels. In the Virginia victories this season the Cavaliers have a +5 turnover advantage. Without the turnover edge this team has yet to taste victory. With Louisville dominating recent play, off a loss, and having a huge explosive play advantage, we will back the visitor. PLAY LOUISVILLE |
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11-14-20 | TCU v. West Virginia -3 | Top | 6-24 | Win | 100 | 136 h 50 m | Show |
142 TCU at West Virginia The Horned Frogs need to run the football to be effective. They are averaging 4.5 yards per carry. The passing game has struggled all year including managing just 73 yards last week hosting Texas Tech. Unfortunately they are going up against a West Virginia defense allowing just 3.3 yards per carry. The Mountaineers are even better against the pass, holding every team to 230 yards or less. Including 6 of 7 opponents to less than 190 yards. West Virginia is undefeated at home this season. They have covered by margins of 16 1/2, 23 1/2, 6 and 17 1/2 the last four years against TCU. The Mountaineers have the more complete offense and the better defense. This is always a tough place to play, especially for TCU who have been outscored the last two visits here by a combined score of 81-20. PLAY WEST VIRGINIA |
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11-14-20 | Indiana v. Michigan State +7 | Top | 24-0 | Loss | -104 | 45 h 48 m | Show |
164 Indiana at Michigan State The Hoosiers are now highly ranked after its blowout victory over Michigan. Now a perfect 3-0 on the young season. But when breaking down the Indiana games we see that they are being outgained per play 5.28 yards to 4.71 yards. The three teams they have beaten are a combined 2-4 straight up when not facing Indiana. When looking at turnover rates we see Indiana at +6 while Michigan State is -7. Regressing works in the favor of the home dog here. Both teams played Rutgers and Michigan. Indiana won both games with a combined yardage advantage of 199. Michigan State split with a yardage advantage of 90. The Spartans have won 9 of the last 10 games between these two clubs. Indiana also has a major lookahead with a trip to Ohio State on deck. We are not buying into the Hoosier hype. Take the points with the Spartans. PLAY MICHIGAN STATE |
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11-11-20 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State OVER 61 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show |
117 Eastern Michigan at Ball State Putting this one up a bit late as we wanted to verify the weather. Looks like 41 degrees and clear with no chance of rain and only 7 mph winds. In other words good weather for an over bet. The last four meetings have shown point totals of 52, 62, 70 and 89 points, as this has been a high scoring series. Both offenses are stout, and can strike in a big way through the passing game. We have serious questions about these two stop units however. Each team allowed 30 points per game last year in MAC play, and neither team has addressed that side of the ball enough in the offseason. The Eagles didn’t have much of a run game last year, and produced just 1.9 ypr in the opener against Kent State. The only way Eastern can match Ball State offensively is to throw the ball, which lengthens the game. Look for this one to be a shootout. PLAY OVER |
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11-10-20 | Miami-OH +8.5 v. Buffalo | 10-42 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
111 Miami Ohio at Buffalo The Redhawks have won eight straight games decided by a touchdown or less. Chuck Martin since coming to Oxford has an outstanding 27-18 spread record as an underdog. Miami has beaten Buffalo 3 of the last 4 meetings including a 34-20 win last year as a two point underdog. Buffalo is expected to be the class of this conference, along with Western Michigan and Toledo. But the Redhawks are being undervalued in our eyes. This team returned 17 players from a MAC Championship squad, and the offense looks much better than a year ago. As we have seen many times this season, having a coaching staff that knows how to win close games is a blessing. Look for the Redhawks to be in this game throughout. PLAY MIAMI OHIO |
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11-08-20 | Seahawks v. Bills OVER 54.5 | 34-44 | Win | 100 | 3 h 27 m | Show | |
451 Seattle at Buffalo Wanted to wait for the latest weather reports before confirming this selection. Looks like 64 degrees and very light winds in Buffalo today. Seattle games are averaging 62 points so far this season, with every game reaching 53 or more points. The team is averaging 5.0 yards per carry and dominating through the air. Wilson is completing 71.5% of his passes, and nobody in the league throws the long ball better. Unfortunately for the Seahawks, the defense has really struggled this season. The opposition is gaining 359 yards through the air on average. Josh Allen has shown the ability to go up and down the field against a defense of this caliber. Scoring 30 or more points against the Dolphins, Rams and Raiders. The past three weeks have been lower scoring because of the weekly game plans. When you throw out the games against the limited offenses of the Jets and Patriots, the Bills have struggled. Buffalo has permitted 410 yards to Miami, 478 to the Rams, 383 to Vegas, 466 to the Chiefs. Tennessee was held to 334 yards but that added up to 42 points for the Titans. We view this as an up and down game with both teams having great success offensively. PLAY OVER |
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11-07-20 | Clemson -5.5 v. Notre Dame | 40-47 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 13 m | Show | |
401 Clemson at Notre Dame When you have elite talent and elite coaching, sometimes it’s hard to get motivated. That has been the case with the Tigers this year. The Tigers had just one game so far that drew any type of interest, and it resulted in a 25 point victory over Miami Florida. After a 73-7 blowout of Georgia Tech the team looked disinterested the past two games. Now with a full game of reps for this highly touted freshman quarterback, we once again see the Tigers with something to play for. Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly is 3-11 SU lifetime vs Top 10 opposition. Every time this team steps up it gets knocked back down by better coached teams. The speed differential in this game is huge, and the Irish have really struggled against better athletes. With Clemson coming in off two poor performances, we look for Dabo and company to lay the wood here. PLAY CLEMSON |
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11-07-20 | West Virginia +7 v. Texas | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 137 h 25 m | Show |
377 West Virginia at Texas The Mountaineers have won 3 of the last 5 meetings including two straight in Texas, both in the underdog role. Coming into this contest 0-2 on the road this season, makes sure Neal Brown and the coaching staff will have this team ready. QB Jarret Doege has an impressive 11 to 3 TD to INT ratio, and the running game has been solid. Defensively West Virginia is allowing just 2.9 yards per rush, and have 9 interceptions to 7 touchdowns allowed. Texas beat Oklahoma State a week ago, but only had a 3% chance of victory at the end of the game. In other words they were very lucky. Getting outgained 530 to 287 in yardage. The Longhorns took advantage of a +4 turnover edge. Texas has only produced one passing game of over 290 yards on the season, that was the opener against UTEP. Without having success through the air we see no way this host gets past this number. Keep in mind Texas is 6-11 ATS as a home favorite under Tom Herman. PLAY WEST VIRGINIA |
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11-07-20 | Michigan State v. Iowa -6.5 | 7-49 | Win | 100 | 45 h 21 m | Show | |
350 Michigan State at Iowa Great time to fade the Spartans after Mel Tucker’s biggest win of his coaching career. For a team like Michigan State, a win over either Michigan or Ohio State is a major accomplishment. Keep in mind the prior five games against those two resulted in losses by 34, 24, 20, 14 and 45 points. The Spartans have a brutal schedule remaining including Northwestern, Ohio State and Penn State. They were 0-3 ATS as a road dog a year ago. Iowa enters this game 0-2 on the season, but they outgained both Purdue and Northwestern. Two teams we have rated much better than this Michigan State squad. The last five plus years Iowa is 27-9 SU in Kinnick Stadium. In what will be a defensive battle we prefer the Hawkeyes with their backs to the wall. PLAY IOWA |
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11-07-20 | Tulane v. East Carolina +4 | 38-21 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 7 m | Show | |
318 Tulane at East Carolina The Pirates have won 8 of the last 9 meetings in Greenville, with the lone loss coming in overtime. After losing a game because of a terrible officials call, we expect the Pirates to play fired up football on Saturday. This is a team that has played with great heart this season after two separate Covid outbreaks. According to the coaching staff the team has had its best practice of the season this week. Despite the 1-2 record the past three games, East Carolina outgained all three opponents. Tulane is coming off a 38-3 blowout of Temple. This is a letdown spot for Tulane after facing the likes of UCF, SMU and Houston the previous three games before the Temple win. The Green Wave is on a current 3-8 SU run on the road. PLAY EAST CAROLINA |
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11-05-20 | Wyoming -3 v. Colorado State | 24-34 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
305 Wyoming at Colorado State The Rams have dropped four straight to rival Wyoming, scoring just 58 points in the process. After four and three win seasons Colorado State hired former Boston College head coach Steve Addazio. We’ve never been a fan of the conservative Addazio, with his BC team averaging less than 30 points per game all but one of his seven seasons in Chestnut Hill. The Rams have played just one game, a 38-17 loss to a questionable Fresno State squad. This team has gone just 5-10 straight up at Canvas Stadium as of late. Wyoming has two games under its belt, winning big against Hawaii and taking Nevada to the wire. Craig Bohl is our favorite coach in this conference, and he has a 33-21 spread record his last for plus years in Laramie. Other than Boise State and Nevada, the Cowboys are the best of the bunch in the Mountain West. After dropping six straight games on the road, you can bet Bohl has his team ready. PLAY WYOMING |
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11-04-20 | Bowling Green v. Toledo -22 | Top | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 31 h 51 m | Show |
292 Bowling Green at Toledo How bad has it been for the Falcons to keep a talented quarterback? James Morgan transferred to FIU, Jarret Doege is now the starter at West Virginia, and last years QB Grant Loy is sitting the bench for Auburn. Junior Matt McDonald will be the signal caller this year after throwing eight passes the last two seasons at Boston College. The two deep chart features nine true freshmen and seven redshirt freshmen. Bowling Green had three victories a year ago. Beating FCS entrant Morgan State, Winless Akron, and a 20-7 upset win over these Rockets. Last year was the first time in over a decade the Rockets didn’t have a winning record. Toledo started the year losing to a solid Kentucky team, then reeled off four straight victories before the BG upset loss. That game completely turned around the Toledo season, so we know Jason Candle has circled this game for the hosts. The Rockets return 14 starters and have a much more veteran team than the Falcons. This should get ugly. PLAY TOLEDO |
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11-01-20 | 49ers v. Seahawks -2.5 | 27-37 | Win | 100 | 76 h 16 m | Show | |
270 San Francisco at Seattle Despite the Seahawks having a half game lead over the Cardinals and Rams, this is an extremely important divisional game for the host. A loss here would make Seattle 0-2 in the division, while the Cardinals are 2-0 and the 49ers 2-1 with the victory. Seattle has a habit of playing to the competition which makes them a questionable big favorite. But in a close lined game we will put our trust in Russell Westbrook. San Francisco is getting healthier, but still has weaknesses that can be attacked. We like the chances of the host. PLAY SEATTLE |
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11-01-20 | Raiders v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 16-6 | Loss | -110 | 138 h 19 m | Show |
260 Las Vegas at Cleveland The key to slowing down this Browns offense is to put pressure on Baker Mayfield. Cleveland has beaten every team not excelling in defensive sacks per pass attempt. The two Cleveland losses were to the Steelers and Ravens. That's the 1st and 4th ranked in that defensive category. The Raiders rank 25th in the league. When facing teams not ranked in the top four, Cleveland has scored 35, 34, 49, 32 and 37 points. Lay the number with the Browns in what looks to be a big offensive game for the host. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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11-01-20 | Patriots +3.5 v. Bills | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 73 h 2 m | Show | |
255 New England at Buffalo Despite the records being 2-4 for the Pats and 5-2 for the Bills, Buffalo only has a 24 point plus/minus advantage on the season over the Patriots. With the Dolphins deciding to start a rookie quarterback the rest of this season, the Bills can really distance themselves from the rest of the division with a victory here. The most acclaimed coach in my lifetime has his back to the wall. New England is an underdog to a division rival in a do or die game for the Pats. This is a team that has dominated this division for years and years. We will take our chances on the visitor here. PLAY NEW ENGLAND |
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10-31-20 | Charlotte +10 v. Duke | Top | 19-53 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 44 m | Show |
125 Charlotte at Duke Big game for Will Healy and the 49ers who get the rare opportunity of taking on in-state rival Duke. QB Chris Reynolds had an excellent QB rating a year ago at 153.6, and he’s picked right back up this year. Duke has shot themselves in the foot all season when it comes to turnovers. Losing 10 of 13 fumbles and throwing 12 interceptions to only 6 touchdowns. The team passer rating is only 106.68 on the year. Chase Brice, the Clemson transfer has been a major disappointment. Charlotte takes care of the football with only three turnovers on the season. Can’t see the Blue Devils getting right against this well coached veteran Charlotte team. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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10-31-20 | Rice +1.5 v. Southern Miss | Top | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
155 Rice at Southern Miss Rice showed a great deal of heart in losing to Middle Tennessee State in overtime a week ago. It was the first game action of the season for the Owls, who started slowly as expected. But after adjusting to the game speed it was clear Rice was the better team. Now after the quadruple doink field goal miss, we expect the Owls to bounce back big time on Saturday. Southern Miss is down to its third head coach this season. As Scotty Walden took a step down in our opinion to take the Austin Peay job. If your interim coach would bale in the middle of a season, what does that tell you about this job. Enough said, go Owls! PLAY RICE |
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10-30-20 | East Carolina +17 v. Tulsa | 30-34 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
107 East Carolina at Tulsa The Pirates were missing key players last time out against Navy, but should be close to full strength on Friday. QB Holton Ahlers returns, as well as key players Tank Robinson and Darius Pinnix. Tulsa has been a major surprise this season under Philip Montgomery with a 2-1 record including an upset at Central Florida. But keep in mind this team won two games in 2017, three in 2018 and only four last year. Just a year ago the Golden Hurricane permitted 31 points per game, and this year brought back only four defensive starters. In a small sample Tulsa has looked great, but how much of this improvement can we count on. East Carolina has an extra week to prepare, is off a loss, and are looking to avenge a 25 point loss to Tulsa in the season finale last year. PLAY EAST CAROLINA |
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10-25-20 | Dodgers v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
959 LA Dodgers & Tampa Bay The last two seasons these clubs have met eight times. All eight meetings saw at least 8 runs being scored. Tampa Bay has a 121 wRC+ against lefties, and the Dodgers are an MLB leader at 126 wRC+ vs righties. League average wRC+ is 100. Both offenses are well acquainted with these starters as Kershaw and Glasnow got this series off to its start. In the first meeting 11 runs were scored. We haven’t seen any reason that all of a sudden pitching should dominate in this series. PLAY OVER |
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10-25-20 | Panthers +7 v. Saints | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 20 m | Show |
461 Carolina at New Orleans Who has the better offense in this game? If you said the Saints you may want to step back and look at the numbers. New Orleans ranks 14th in passing yards per play and 22nd in rushing yards per play. And it gets even worse for the Saints as they are missing key members of this offense this week. Carolina by the way comes in at 8th and 19th respectively. With the Panthers defense ranking 2nd in passing yards per play allowed at 5.94, we have a clear play on the touchdown underdog. PLAY CAROLINA |
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10-24-20 | Cincinnati +2.5 v. SMU | Top | 42-13 | Win | 100 | 31 h 37 m | Show |
347 Cincinnati at SMU Big three weeks for the Bearcats who play the Mustangs, Memphis and Houston. Luke Fickell has done a terrific job here off back to back 11 win seasons. This defense allowed 20.6 points per game a year ago and brought back nine starters. After three games Cincinnati has intercepted 7 passes while allowing exactly zero passing touchdowns. SMU and former Texas standout Shane Buechele lead a strong passing game for the Mustangs. But this team hasn’t faced a defense anywhere near as good as the Bearcats. Cincinnati is currently ranked in the Top 10. In Sonny Dykes career his teams are 0-7 SU vs Top 10 and 4-17 SU vs Top 25 opposition. We will back the Bearcats here. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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10-24-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. Rice -3.5 | 40-34 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 13 m | Show | |
394 Middle Tennessee at Rice Strange scheduling situation here as the Blue Raiders will be playing its 7th game of the season, while the Owls play their first. Middle Tennessee has been a major disappointment this year and the coaching staff is talking about how beat up this team is. The second half last week showed this team to be fading fast as the end couldn’t come fast enough. Rice is expected to be much improved this third year under Mike Bloomgren. The Owls finished last year with three straight wins against this Blue Raiders team, North Texas and UTEP. Rice was catching 14 against Middle Tennessee a year ago, winning 31-28. Let’s back the fresh team here to continue its uptick. PLAY RICE |
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10-24-20 | Rutgers +13.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 38-27 | Win | 100 | 70 h 3 m | Show |
339 Rutgers at Michigan State What does it say about this Michigan State program that it replaced a legend in Mark Dantonio, with Mel Tucker who went 5-7 in his only head coaching job a year ago at Colorado. The same 5-7 record the Buffaloes had in each of the two prior seasons. The Spartans averaged only 22 points per game in 2019, and still haven’t announced who the starting quarterback is. Defensively Michigan State only brings back three starters, so questions abound all over this roster. Greg Schiano is back in his familiar territory of New Brunswick. He started here in 2001 and left after the 2011 season. He has a winning record with the Knights, 68-67 in his previous tenure. That’s enough to celebrate his return to New Jersey. The Scarlet Knights added some big transfers including QN Noah Vedral from Nebraska. Overall 16 starters return to what looks to be a far more physical squad. Rutgers is also looking to avenge a 27-0 shutout in its final home game of 2019. Money has come in on Rutgers since the opener, and that’s smart money. Nobody but pros would step in to back a 3-21 football team the past two seasons. We agree with the move as Schiano has proven himself to be a quality college football head coach, something this state hasn’t seen since he left close to a decade ago. PLAY RUTGERS |
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10-23-20 | UL-Lafayette v. UAB +2.5 | 24-20 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 8 m | Show | |
310 UL Lafayette at UAB The Blazers are a perfect 21-0 SU at Legion Field since a return to college football in 2017. That includes four outright victories in the underdog role. The only loss on the season for UAB was a 17 point loss at Miami Florida. The Ragin’ Cajuns were 11-3 last year and were highly ranked earlier in the season. But this team has continued to disappoint its backers. While 3-1 SU on the year ULL hasn’t covered a contest since the opening game upset at Iowa State. Just can’t trust this team to lay points into a major home field advantage for the Blazers. PLAY UAB |
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10-22-20 | Arkansas State +13.5 v. Appalachian State | 17-45 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 21 m | Show | |
305 Arkansas State at Appalachian State The Red Wolves have been able to move the ball on everyone. The two quarterback attack has produced 191 points in five games. That includes covers against Memphis and Kansas State, the later being an outright victory. The team has a terrific 23 to 4 TD to INT ratio. App State hasn’t played a game since September 26th against Campbell. The Mountaineers have yet to provide its backers with a spread cover. Zac Thomas the senior QB has a 2 to 2 TD to INT ratio in three games. This line is simply too high with two quality signal callers for the Red Wolves. PLAY ARKANSAS STATE |
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10-18-20 | Rams -3 v. 49ers | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 2 m | Show |
273 Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco The Rams rank 1st in the NFL in average yards per pass attempt at 8.68, the 49ers 23rd at 6.68. That means every time one of these quarterbacks go back for a pass the Rams have a 2 yard advantage offensively. The Rams also lead the NFL allowing just 5.56 ypp, while the Niners sit 13th at 6.74. So the passing advantage is huge for the visitor. LA also is 2nd in defensive sacks per attempt. The 49ers are getting healthier but the Rams are still better in the trenches. PLAY LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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10-18-20 | Falcons v. Vikings -3.5 | Top | 40-23 | Loss | -109 | 95 h 16 m | Show |
256 Atlanta at Minnesota The Texans had success last week after firing it's head coach in the middle of the season. But that's a rarity when it comes to covering the spread. Atlanta cleaned house after losing on Sunday, but this team has more problems than the head coach and GM. The Falcons defense continues to struggle against teams it should be able to beat. Blowing leads has been the norm, and this club is now 0-5 on the season. With a veteran team we can only see things getting worse. Minnesota has played better as of late and they almost pulled off the upset at Seattle on Sunday. This team continues to play with heart, something we just haven't seen from the Falcons. Grab this play now before the line rises. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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10-18-20 | Texans +3.5 v. Titans | Top | 36-42 | Loss | -115 | 71 h 37 m | Show |
257 Houston at Tennessee Despite the current records we feel the Texans to have the better roster. And now without a Head Coach/GM that held them back, there is plenty of value on the visitor. The Texans rank 3rd in the NFL in passing yards per play, Tennessee 14th. Houston also runs the ball better than the Titans, 4.15 ypr to 3.87. Defensively Tennessee does have a slight edge defending the pass, 15th to 17th. But once again Houston’s defense against the run is better, 25th to 32nd and dead last for Tennessee. The Titans allow 5.49 yards per rush, which is higher than the LA Rams allow per pass! With home field advantage being lower than ever, we will back the better team catching points. PLAY HOUSTON |
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10-17-20 | Marshall v. Louisiana Tech +13.5 | Top | 35-17 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 39 m | Show |
162 Marshall at Louisiana Tech We’ve been a big believer in the Thundering Herd this year, as Doc Holliday continues to be one of the best coaches in the college ranks. That said, this team is really being priced high here against a quality Bulldogs squad. Over the last decade the Herd is only 11-19-2 ATS as a road favorite, and haven’t posted a winning mark in that regard since 2015. Tech is coming in off a ten win season in 2019, and Skip Holtz has a history of rewarding backers in the underdog role. The Bulldogs struggled against UTEP last week, but this Miners team is much better than any other squad Dana Dimel has coached in El Paso. Since 2014 Louisiana Tech is 28-8 straight up at home. Throw in the fact that this team was embarrassed by Marshall last year 31-10, and we have a terrific revenge situation. PLAY LOUISIANA TECH |
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10-17-20 | Kansas v. West Virginia -22 | 17-38 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 55 m | Show | |
128 Kansas at West Virginia Both teams off a bye heading into this one. Les Miles will miss the game after coming down with Covid. Not sure it matters much as he has done nothing but collect a paycheck since coming to Lawrence. The Jayhawks will be using a backup quarterback here, although the drop off is negligible. West Virginia is looking to bounce back from a rare losing season in 2019. 2013 was the last losing season in Morgantown, and the club won three games more the following season. The Mountaineers have a habit of blowing out lesser teams. Winning by margins of 37, 44, 16, 29, 35, 22, 43, and 36 points the past three seasons when laying double digits. Lay it with the host. PLAY WEST VIRGINIA |
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10-17-20 | Liberty -2.5 v. Syracuse | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 48 m | Show | |
129 Liberty at Syracuse Revenge game for the Flames who were shutout 24-0 by the Orange in the season opener a year ago. Hugh Freeze has done a wonderful job in Lynchburg in his short stay. Winning eight games a season ago and being one of the big surprises early on in 2020. Last week we backed the Orange and lost and failed to cover, despite a +4 turnover advantage. Syracuse is down to a backup quarterback and have been competitive because of smoke and mirrors. A huge +10 turnover advantage on the season has kept them from being embarrassed. That ends here as we back the clear team on the rise, with the far better coach. PLAY LIBERTY |
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10-16-20 | Astros v. Rays -129 | 7-4 | Loss | -129 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
902 Houston and Tampa Bay Big hitting advantage for the Rays here as we see a battle of lefties taking the mound. Tampa Bay is fourth in baseball with a wRC+ of 121 on the season. Houston on the other hand is 20th with a 94 wRC+. Keep in mind league average is 100. Houston has struggled away from home with a 13-25 record, while Tampa sits at 22-14 away from the Trop. The Rays also have a huge back of the bullpen advantage going 4-3 in extra innings, and 16-7 in one run games. The Astros counter with 2-7 in extras and 12-15 in one run contests. The Rays put this series in the rearview mirror tonight. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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10-13-20 | Rays -106 v. Astros | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
967 Tampa Bay & Houston The Rays have a 105 wRC+ vs righties, while the Astros are 94 wRC+ against southpaws. The major advantage from a pitching standpoint is the Tampa Bay bullpen, as we simply do not trust the pitchers in this Houston pen. Case in point is the records in extra innings and one run games. Tampa is a combined 19-8 while Houston sits at 12-22. The fact is this Tampa team is built to win close games. Throw in the fact that the Rays are 21-12 on the road, and Houston is 13-25 away from home, and we have quite an edge with the Rays. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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10-11-20 | Vikings +7 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 32 h 51 m | Show |
475 Minnesota at Seattle The Vikings defense has been a sieve this year, but the Seahawks have been just as bad. Minnesota ranks 31st in defensive passing yards per play, but they have stopped the run at the tenth best rate in the league. Seattle also excels in stopping the run, but ranks 28th defending the pass. The Seahawks are first in offensive passing yards per play, and 11th in rushing yards per play. Minnesota has been even more balanced offensively at 5th and 3rd respectively. Other than New Orleans the Seahawks suffer the loss of home field advantage more than any other team without all fans. Throw in the fact that Seattle tends to play to the competition, and we find value on the Vikings catching this key number. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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10-10-20 | Charlotte -3 v. North Texas | 49-21 | Win | 100 | 30 h 4 m | Show | |
355 Charlotte at North Texas Two teams that have the ability to put up points, but only one has any semblance of a defense. The Green Wave play as if it’s basketball on grass, scoring at a moments notice. But the defense gives it up just as fast as the offense. Charlotte on the other hand can move the ball at will in this contest, but has a defense that can slow down this fast paced North Texas team. Defense will determine the winner here, and that’s all 49ers. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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10-10-20 | Alabama v. Ole Miss +24 | 63-48 | Win | 100 | 53 h 13 m | Show | |
328 Alabama at Mississippi Two teams that are loaded offensively and have great coaching. But these defenses have been a disappointment thus far. We would like to play this game over the total, but the hurricane put a stop to that as weather is a concern. That said, we feel the Rebels can stay within this number, despite what went down when both coaches were in Tuscaloosa. With Georgia on deck for the Tide, we can see Saban giving playing time to some bench players in this one. PLAY MISSISSIPPI |
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10-10-20 | Temple -3.5 v. Navy | 29-31 | Loss | -105 | 51 h 28 m | Show | |
347 Temple at Navy First game of the season for the Owls. But they have been practicing for the option during the preseason. With film on the Midshipmen you would have to think Temple has the advantage here. Navy could be the biggest disappointment in college football. This club has played just one good half of football all season. Can’t see that changing much against what we consider to be a pretty solid Temple squad. PLAY TEMPLE |
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10-10-20 | Pittsburgh -6 v. Boston College | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 37 m | Show | |
311 Pittsburgh at Boston College Big bounce back game here for the Panthers after blowing a late lead to NC State a week ago. Pitt had four shots at the end zone from the one yard line and failed to score in that contest. Nothing stronger than that to motivate an offense that has been stagnate. BC is having major problems running the football which is a Pitt defensive strength. With a one-dimensional offense, we can count on the Pitt stop unit to have a big day. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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10-10-20 | Duke v. Syracuse +2.5 | 38-24 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 10 m | Show | |
310 Duke at Syracuse Clemson transfer QB Chase Brice has had a real problem with turnovers this year, and this Syracuse stop unit has been very good at forcing turnovers. Tommy DeVito struggled with interceptions in the past, but he has been able to limit those mistakes for the most part this year. Duke ranks last in the conference against the run, and Orange freshman RB Sean Tucker looked good last time out. Wrong team favored here, give us the Orangemen. PLAY SYRACUSE |
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10-06-20 | Marlins +185 v. Braves | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 37 m | Show |
909 Miami at Atlanta The Marlins have a 111 wRC+ vs lefties, while the Braves are 126 vs righties. Both teams hitting much better than league average. Miami has the better road record, 22-14 vs 16-14. Sandy Alcantara has a 59 average game score in three starts against the Braves. Max Fried has a 48 average game score in his last five starts against Miami. Overall the past seven starts have shown both pitchers with a 55 average game score. While we understand that the Braves should be favored, this line is very much inflated in our eyes. PLAY MIAMI |
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10-04-20 | Jaguars +3 v. Bengals | Top | 25-33 | Loss | -100 | 144 h 49 m | Show |
257 Jacksonville at Cincinnati Money is coming in on the host here so we should be able to get a better number later in the week. Cincinnati has been a team that finds a way to cover as an underdog, with 3-0 or 2-0-1 ATS on the season. But now the Bengals are being installed as a favorite, and we want nothing to do with this club laying points. The public perception is that this club is a hard trying team with a future star at quarterback. And that’s true, but this offensive line is currently terrible. With 32 teams in the league the Bengals rank 31st in rushing yards per play and 31st in passing yards per play. Cincinnati is 29th in sacks per pass attempt. While we love the future of Burrow, he just doesn’t have enough protection to lift up this ailing offense. Nobody expected anything from this Jacksonville team coming into the season. But this is a team that has outgained the opposition each of the last two weeks, and the opening week win over Indianapolis is looking even more impressive now. With extra time to prepare after losing to the Dolphins last Thursday, we will look for a big bounce back from the visitor. The Jags are 7th in rushing yards per play while the Bengals defense ranks 26th in stepping the run. PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
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10-03-20 | Virginia Tech -12 v. Duke | 38-31 | Loss | -105 | 46 h 49 m | Show | |
113 Virginia Tech at Duke The more games the Blue Devils play, the more reasons to bet against them become obvious. This is a turnover machine right now, and the coaching staff doesn’t have a quality backup to bench the starter. Duke doesn’t have anyone to stretch the field, relying on the tight end and running backs. Virginia Tech has a duel threat quarterback, which should really find success against this Duke defense. The Hokies struggled with Covid a couple weeks ago, and many of those players are expected to return for this game. PLAY VIRGINIA TECH |
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10-03-20 | Texas A&M v. Alabama -17.5 | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 45 h 30 m | Show | |
144 Texas A&M at Alabama Kellen Mond played one of his better games last year and the Aggies still lost by 19. The offensive line has experience but didn’t look very good last time out against Vandy, a team on the opposite spectrum from the Tide. Alabama has advantage in the trenches, which means the host can dictate the pace of play. The defense played a mobile quarterback last week, so should have an edge against Mond. There is no love lost between these coaches, and after the Tide allowed a late td a week ago, we feel Saban keeps up the pressure. PLAY ALABAMA |
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10-03-20 | North Carolina -13.5 v. Boston College | 26-22 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 20 m | Show | |
111 North Carolina at Boston College Boston College was very lucky to escape with a victory last week against Texas State. The running game has really struggled, which is very much needed to keep the defense off the field. Against a fast paced Tar Heels team, you need to give your defense a rest. We backed North Carolina in the season opener, and the team has been on the sidelines since. With the additional practice time we are looking for a fired up offense to take advantage of this BC stop unit. When the Eagles fall behind this team doesn’t have the offensive playmakers to forge a comeback. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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10-03-20 | Missouri +13 v. Tennessee | 12-35 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 51 m | Show | |
115 Missouri at Tennessee The Volunteers were highly hyped in the offseason after winning its final six games. The streak continued last week with an unimpressive victory over what could be a bad South Carolina team. This game opened up at 11 and is starting to show 13 in some places. We disagree with the line move, as Missouri looked decently well against powerhouse Alabama last week. The Missouri signal callers were 26 of 39 for 253 yards against one of the best defenses in all of football. Missouri has enough talent to keep this game easily within the current number. PLAY MISSOURI |
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09-30-20 | Cardinals +150 v. Padres | Top | 7-4 | Win | 150 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
949 St Louis at San Diego Nice price on the road underdog Cardinals here. Kwang Hyun Kim has an average game score of 60 in his last seven starts. But a closer look shows just how hard he is to hit the first time you see him. Against Milwaukee the first time he posted a 74 game score, down to 54 in his next start against the Brewers. Facing Pittsburgh for the first time he had a 66 game score, but dropped to 43 the second time the Pirates saw him. Same with Cincinnati, 69 the first time and 63 the second. Obviously this is the first time he will face San Diego. Chris Paddack regressed as expected this season. He got off to a red hot start last year and faded a bit down the stretch. This year he has a 4.73 ERA and his last seven starts show him as a league average 50 game score. Clear pitching advantage here for the underdog. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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09-29-20 | White Sox -115 v. A's | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 30 m | Show |
937 Chicago White Sox at Oakland Oakland has a wRC+ of 104 vs righties, but the Sox have a whopping 143 wRC+ vs lefties. In fact, Chicago is 14-0 on the season when facing a lefty starter. Luzardo has a 51 average game score in his last seven starts. Giolito in that same time frame is at 67. Lucas G has faced the A’s twice in his career posting game scores of 53 and 66, league average is 50. The Sox enter this series slumping a bit, but that just helps keep this line in control. Keep in mind that teams did not face equal schedules this year. The White Sox competed in a division with three playoff teams, the A’s on the other hand had themselves and Houston. Can’t understand why the A’s would throw a lefty against this lineup, but we will take advantage of it. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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09-29-20 | Astros v. Twins -167 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -167 | 3 h 47 m | Show |
934 Houston at Minnesota Minnesota has a 108 to 102 wRC+ advantage on the season vs righties, compared to Houston. The Astros have been terrible on the road with a 9-23 record. The Twins have been outstanding at home with a 24-7 mark. When playing .500 teams or better the Astros stand at 4-13 on the season, while Minnesota is 18-12. In the last seven starts overall Greinke has a 47 average game score, his best start was a 56 against the lowly Texas offense. Kenta Maeda has likely been the best free agent signing this season. His average game score in his last seven starts has been 65. His worst start of 56 equalled Greinke’s best start. This is the third straight series Houston is playing on the road, while the Twins are playing its third straight series at home. The price is steep but for good reason. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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09-27-20 | Packers v. Saints -3 | 37-30 | Loss | -108 | 79 h 41 m | Show | |
488 Green Bay at New Orleans When buying stocks you are told to buy low and sell high. When betting sports you make money by doing the exact same thing. Right now the Packers are 2-0 and have dominated the opposition. The two victories were against Minnesota and Detroit, two teams who also looked bad when not facing the Packers. Just a month ago everyone was looking to fade Green Bay because of all the positives from last season. They were down on the Packers draft. Now after playing two of the most disappointing teams in the early season, this team is taking money against the Saints in New Orleans? We tend to remember what we saw last and the Saints losing at Vegas is certainly in many peoples minds. But did New Orleans really look that bad? They dominated the Raiders in yards per play, but were penalized just about every time this team had a key play. This against a Raiders team known to lead the league in penalties each and every year. Not to start a controversy but the ref calls in that game were extremely strange, as if the league wanted the Raiders to come away with the win. That type of situation isn’t likely to help the Saints foe on Sunday. PLAY NEW ORLEANS |
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09-27-20 | Texans +4 v. Steelers | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -103 | 71 h 14 m | Show |
465 Houston at Pittsburgh Texans enter this contest after playing the toughest schedule in the history of the NFL the past two weeks. Kansas City and Baltimore are at least 3 points better than any other team in the league. Despite being outscored 67 to 36 in those contests, there are some positives for Houston. The Texans lost the turnover battles in both games, -3 on the season. That is likely to regress when facing lower rated opposition. When looking at the all important yards per play category, Houston is holding its own. Baltimore beat Houston 6.7 YPP to 5.7 YPP. But the Texans beat the Chiefs 6.7 YPP to 5.6 YPP. Teams that start the season 0-2 lose favor in the minds of the bettors, we take advantage of that here. As opposed to the schedule Houston played, Pittsburgh faced two of the worst teams in the league, the Giants and Broncos. Despite having the better talent the Steelers struggled to put away the opposition, barely beating the Broncos with a back up quarterback last week. With home field advantage being worth less than ever, the Texans are a live dog here. PLAY HOUSTON |
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09-27-20 | Washington Football Team v. Browns -7 | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 71 h 11 m | Show | |
472 Washington at Cleveland Extra practice time for the Browns who remain at home after outlasting the Bengals on Thursday. The Browns have produced 740 total yards the first two weeks. This offense is loaded and looked unstoppable on Thursday. Washington had just 239 yards in the opener against a banged up Philadelphia defense. The Washington football team did nothing against the Cards in the first half Sunday. We expect this number to rise through the key number of 7, let’s take advantage with this early release. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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09-27-20 | Raiders v. Patriots -5 | 20-36 | Win | 100 | 70 h 6 m | Show | |
462 Las Vegas at New England Now that this line has been bet down it’s time to come in on the favored Pats. Short week for the Raiders off that highly emotional win over the Saints on Monday. A game in which the Raiders received every break possible from the refs. Carr had pointed to that contest as his coming out party and the offense sure looked good. But that defense was not impressive at all, as the Saints clearly did as they wanted from a yards per play aspect. New England has been terrific off a loss, a trademark of this regime. The Pats just played at a very tough venue and took the Seahawks to the wire. As much as we wish our new hometown team success, the Raiders looked better than they really are. Coaching advantage to the Pats, especially on defense. PLAY NEW ENGLAND |
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09-26-20 | UTEP v. UL-Monroe UNDER 50 | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
448 UTEP at Louisiana Monroe These are the two lowest ranked teams in our power ratings. In the last three seasons the Miners have won two combined games. After surviving two FCS squads to start the year, this is a confident bunch heading into this contest. UTEP only averaged 20 mpg a year ago, and only five starters returned to that side of the ball. Even in victories this season the scoring unit has struggled. The Warhawks are looking for its first victory of the season. That means we expect a very conservative game plan. With teams of this magnitude wins are a rarity, so they don’t want to be criticized by turning the ball over. ULM is breaking in a new QB this season and the offense hasn’t come around as of late. We expect a closely fought game with scoring at a minimum. PLAY UNDER |
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09-26-20 | Army v. Cincinnati UNDER 45 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
446 Army at Cincinnati The Black Knights averaged 57 running plays a game last year. This team only threw the ball 59 times all season a year ago. Army specializes in long clock absorbing drives which is what you are looking for when playing a game under the total. Cincinnati permitted just 21 points per game in 2019 and bring back nine defensive starters. Luke Fickell is a very conservative coach who looks to win by running the football and playing strong defense. We expect the clock in this contest to fly by, as both teams keep the ball on the ground. PLAY UNDER |
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09-26-20 | Georgia Southern +11.5 v. UL-Lafayette | 18-20 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show | |
421 Georgia Southern at Louisiana Lafayette A perfect 2-0 on the season in games involving the Ragin’ Cajuns. Georgia Southern was hit hard by Covid the first game of the season. Now with time the team looks to bring back the majority of players that missed the opener. This is a team that can easily wear down the opposition because of a powerful running attack. Last year the Eagles averaged 51 carries per contest. ULL fought hard last week after falling behind early, grabbing victory from the hands of defeat. That’s a lot of spent energy after knocking off a ranked Big 12 opponent on the road for the first time in school history. Look for the Eagles to dictate the pace and stay well under this number. PLAY GEORGIA SOUTHERN |
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09-25-20 | Reds v. Twins -134 | 7-2 | Loss | -134 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
920 Cincinnati at Minnesota Hitting against righties the Twins have a 110 to 94 wRC+ advantage. Tyler Mahle has fit in well with the Reds, but a closer examination shows he has been much better at home than on the road. On the road he has been a league average starter with a 50 game score, but when at home his game score numbers have been 63, 58, 71, 74 and 45. Jose Berrios has been very consistent with game scores of 78, 45, 68, 53 and 67 his last six outings. With the Twins being 23-5 at home this season, this number looks like a bargain. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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09-23-20 | Lightning v. Stars +139 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
026 Tampa Bay & Dallas The Lightning evened up the series last time out despite losing expected goals 5.44-3.34. In fact, after two games Dallas has an expected goal lead of 7.81-6.48. That’s pretty impressive for a Stars bunch who excels on the defensive end. This team packs down towards the goal and waits for a long deflection shot, leading to a fast break opportunity. It worked well throughout these playoffs. Tampa is likely the better team, but in hockey as we have seen the better team doesn’t always win. Give us the plus money with the Stars tonight. PLAY DALLAS |
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09-21-20 | White Sox +104 v. Indians | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 17 m | Show | |
905 Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Offensively looking at wRC+ the White Sox have a 24% hitting advantage in this contest. Aaron Civale has faced Chicago four times in the last two years with an average game score of 53. His last three overall starts at Progressive Field have shown game scores of 48, 57 and 53. Dane Dunning has been very impressive with an average game score of 60 since his promotion. In his first game against an opponent his numbers are 47, 73, 68 and 70. He has been especially good when teams haven’t seen him before, and this will be the first time the Tribe has faced him. The White Sox are fighting for the top spot in the playoffs, while Cleveland is basically locked into the Wild Card contest. Look for a big effort out of Dunning and the Sox here. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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09-20-20 | Royals +140 v. Brewers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 22 m | Show |
967 Kansas City at Milwaukee Neither team is very good vs right-handers, with Milwaukee at a wRC+ of 85 and the Royals at 89. But we do like the pitching matchup for Kansas City. Brad Keller has a 60 average game score in his last seven starts. He hasn’t given up a home run in 43.2 innings of work. Is it sustainable? Of course not, but in the last three seasons he has only allowed 22 homers in 349.1 total innings. So he has long term homer suppression. He is built up to go a long way today with his last three starts showing total pitches of 111, 106 and 103. Josh Lindblom has a 48 average game score this season. His return to the majors hasn’t been as smooth as he would have liked. He hasn’t gotten a victory in his last six starts. We don’t think he and the Brewers deserve to be substantial favorites here. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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09-20-20 | Vikings v. Colts -3 | Top | 11-28 | Win | 100 | 144 h 47 m | Show |
274 Minnesota at Indianapolis Heading into the opening week this is one game we had circled and we bet the lookahead line. Despite the Colts losing to the lowly Jags we like this game even better now. We graded the Colts five points higher than the Vikings comming into the season, and that may be a bit conservative. The Colts simply dominated Jacksonville Sunday in just about every category you look at, except turnovers. Indy was -2 in the turnover department despite winning yardage by 204. Keep in mind the Colts never punted in the entire game. Minnesota lost by nine points at home to a team expected to regress badly this year. The Vikings lost the yardage battle by 140. We know this line is going to rise and getting it on the right side of three is a bonus. Wouldn't surprise if we saw the same type of line movement which led to our early release last week. PLAY INDIANAPOLIS |
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09-20-20 | Rams v. Eagles +1 | 37-19 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 53 m | Show | |
262 Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Less impressed by the Rams victory over the Cowboys than most, if we are to believe the line move in this one. Money has poured in on the visitor, despite the host getting healthier each and every day. The Eagles held the Redskins to 239 yards but 27 points. The Redskins had three drives start in Eagles territory as Philadelphia lost the turnover battle 3 to 0. Our preseason numbers like the Eagles much more than the Rams. Teams starting the season 0-1 have been golden when playing a 1-0 squad. The threat of an 0-2 start brings out the best of the winless team. Considering the Eagles are at home and have more talent puts us squarely on the host. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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09-19-20 | Wake Forest +1 v. NC State | Top | 42-45 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 47 m | Show |
07 Wake Forest at North Carolina State Wake fared about as well as expected by facing Clemson out of the gate. This is a team really dropping down in opposition, with a game already under its belt. The Demon Deacons are running one of the fastest offenses in college football. We expect this team to have a great deal of success against a team not used to that type of pace. NC State has been dealing with Covid 19, so its been tough getting players on the field together. In what we expect to be a high scoring game we will back the visitor. PLAY WAKE FOREST |
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09-19-20 | Braves v. Mets +143 | 2-7 | Win | 143 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
920 Atlanta at New York Mets Two highly touted starters take the hill in the Big Apple tonight. Ian Anderson has been terrific in his first four starts with an average game score of 65. He has been fortunate with the long ball allowing a single home run over 22 innings of work. David Peterson hasn’t been as flashy, but he did put up a 57 game score the first time he faced these Braves. The Braves pound vs righties, but only have a 93 wRC+ vs lefties this season. The Mets on the other hand dominate righties with a 128 wRC+ on the season, tied for first in all of baseball. Nice spot to fade the start of Anderson, catching the Mets at home at an inflated price. PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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09-19-20 | UL-Lafayette v. Georgia State +15.5 | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
104 Louisiana Lafayette at Georgia State We backed the Ragin’ Cajuns last week with success, but we are looking to fade them on Saturday. ULL is off its first ever Top 25 road win in the programs history. Now 1-26 away vs elite opponents. Not only is Lafayette off a road first, but the team itself is now being ranked. Despite putting up 35 points last week the offense only gained 272 yards. Early in the season it’s tough to get a grasp on teams because of small sample sizes. ULL is a good team but this line is inflated because of one game. Give us the home dog here to keep this much closer than anticipated. PLAY GEORGIA STATE |
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09-17-20 | Dodgers v. Rockies +150 | 9-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
918 Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Could very well be a letdown spot here for the Dodgers after taking 2 of 3 against the up and coming Padres. LA is only posting a wRC+ of 101 vs lefties, while the Rockies come is with a wRC+ of 94 vs southpaws. So the LA offensive advantage is minimal. Urias hasn’t been very good against the Rockies with an average game score of 39 in his last five matchups. In Colorado his scores have been 24, 39 and 38. Freeland is having a really strong year despite back to back 27 and 25 games scores 3 and 4 starts ago. He’s bounced back with 69 and 58 game scores his last two outings against the Padres and Angels. After facing the Astros and Padres, there is value against the Dodgers tonight. PLAY COLORADO |
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09-17-20 | Bengals v. Browns -6 | Top | 30-35 | Loss | -104 | 54 h 28 m | Show |
102 Cincinnati at Cleveland Mixed thoughts surrounding the debut of Joe Burrow. He only had a passer rating of 54 and the offensive line continued to have problems. He didn’t have a single August practice that had his full slate of receivers healthy. Those timing issues are especially needed when traveling on a short week where there is no time to work out the problems. The Browns played the Ravens much closer than the final score, but mistakes plagued the team all afternoon. Cleveland lost the yardage battle 377-306, but really struggled in key downs going 3 of 15 on third and fourth, while the Ravens went 6 of 11. The Browns also lost the turnover battle 3 to 1. So while the Bengals looked competitive in the opener, the Browns were much better than the final score. This Cleveland team is loaded, and with a chip on its shoulder we expect the best of the Browns here. Year after year the home team in these Thursday games have dominated. With what happed last week we really like Cleveland here. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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09-16-20 | Indians v. Cubs -101 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
976 Cleveland at Chicago Cubs The Indians have now lost seven straight games. In a season of 60 a streak of this kind can really be a killer. And that’s what has happened as just a week or so ago the Tribe was battling for first place in the division. How it’s hanging on to the last Wild Card spot. Aaron Civale has a 55 average game score his last seven starts, but five of those came against the dregs of the league when hitting righties. Detroit has a wRC+ of 84, Kansas City 90, Milwaukee 81, Pittsburgh 62 and St Louis 96. All below the league average of 100. The Cubs sit at 102 wRC+ on the season. Jon Lester isn’t nearly the pitcher he used to be, but he has had no problem with the Tribe. In his last five starts against the Indians his average game score was 64, with a 1.73 ERA. He is coming off his best start of the season, and Cleveland’s wRC+ vs lefties is 75. PLAY CHICAGO CUBS |
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09-16-20 | Braves v. Orioles +165 | 1-5 | Win | 165 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
962 Atlanta at Baltimore Battle of two lefties tonight in Baltimore. Cole Hamels returns from the DL for his first appearance of the season. His pitch count will likely be low since he has been out so long. While once a legit top of the line starter, he’s now just an average MLB pitcher. Keegan Akin looked great in his first two starts of the year. But as expected the Yankees saw him twice in the same week and the second start resulted in a 30 game score. Now that he’s facing the Braves for the first time we expect a successful outing. We’ve always loved backing unknown left-handed starters the first time through the league. Baltimore should have a solid pitching edge here. As good as the Braves have been this season vs righties, their wRC+ vs lefties is only 89, 11% worse than league average. Baltimore comes in at a wRC+ of 102 against southpaws. Nice underdog price here with the O’s. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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09-13-20 | Cowboys v. Rams OVER 51 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -105 | 46 h 41 m | Show |
477 Dallas at Los Angeles Rams Last year these two clubs finished in the top three in pace of play. Word out of LA is that this is also a very fast field, great for breakaway speed. These offenses are very talented and we have questions about both defenses, which are banged up at key positions. With the game on the key number of 51 and this being a nationally televised night game. This total has nowhere to go but up. PLAY OVER |
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09-13-20 | Eagles v. Washington Football Team +6.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 143 h 45 m | Show |
464 Philadelphia at Washington Can’t trust the Eagles in the road favorite role. Week one divisional dogs are on a 21-5-1 run, and teams not making the playoffs the previous season have been golden when up against a playoff participant. Washington has quality players, it’s been the organization that has been the drawback. With the promise to change the name we feel the management is now starting to join the 21st century. The Eagles have major injuries coming into this game with Jeffrey, Wentz, Reagor and Sanders being banged up. The defense has many question marks as well with Avery, Maddox, Effs, Hargrave and Barnett not being 100%. Touch to lay this type of number on the road to a team very familiar. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-13-20 | Colts -8 v. Jaguars | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -105 | 38 h 27 m | Show |
467 Indianapolis at Jacksonville This Colts team is simply loaded. It’s likely the best offensive line in the NFL. Rivers has never had protection like he will have this season. This is going to be an explosive offense and the defense is likely top ten as well. Jacksonville is the worst team in the league, and has already made moves to get its franchise quarterback of the future. The Jags normally have very little home advantage, so that likely won’t change much if not at all this season. Getting this one out now as we expect this line to rise. PLAY INDIANAPOLIS |
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09-12-20 | Coastal Carolina +7 v. Kansas | 38-23 | Win | 100 | 81 h 48 m | Show | |
403 Coastal Carolina at Kansas The visitor should be well prepared in this contest as they have had 15 more spring practices than the Jayhawks. They also return more starters than the host. The coaching staff returns in full along with its starting quarterback. Kansas has a new OC and must replace its quarterback. Simply can’t trust this terrible football program to lay points to a team it lost to just last season. PLAY COASTAL CAROLINA |
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09-12-20 | Syracuse v. North Carolina -22.5 | Top | 6-31 | Win | 100 | 71 h 36 m | Show |
396 Syracuse at North Carolina Don’t think much of this Syracuse team who has won five or less games 5 of the last 6 years. After a breakout 2018 in which the Orangemen won ten games, the team dropped to a 5-7 record last year. The players sat out practices because of the COVID, and really look like a team just going through the motions right now. This was an experienced team a year ago, no so in 2020. They hired a new defensive coordinator who is installing a 3-3-5 defense. Tough to make those type of changes and have to face an NFL caliber quarterback right out of the gate. North Carolina is a team on the rise under second year coach Mack Brown. I had originally hated the signing as I felt the game had passed him by. I’m big enough to admit my mistakes, and that was a big one. As the Tar Heels went from winning two games in 2018 to seven last year. QB Sam Howell was dominant last year and really put his name out there for those looking from the next level. North Carolina finished the year scoring 41 and 56 points, we expect a huge offensive season from this team. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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09-12-20 | UL-Lafayette +11.5 v. Iowa State | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 22 h 20 m | Show | |
415 Louisiana Lafayette at Iowa State When a Sun Belt team plays a Big 5 program and the money has come in on the underdog you need to give it some respect. And for good reason as Lafayette had an 11 win season a year ago and is projected to be even better this year. Senior returning quarterback with a 26-4 TD to INT ratio has us interested. We also have a head coach in Billy Napier who was a hot commodity in the offseason and decided to stay put in search for the Sun Belt Championship. Iowa State is a good football program but we much prefer them as an underdog than laying double digits. This is a team under Matt Campbell that prefers to be very conservative and slow the pace down. Under Campbell this team is 6-9 ATS as a home favorite, 17-8 ATS as an underdog. PLAY LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE |
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09-11-20 | Reds v. Cardinals +111 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
920 Cincinnati at St Louis The Cardinals have dominated this series the past three seasons winning 29 of 45 meetings. Adam Wainwright isn’t the dominant pitcher he was in the past but his command and control this season has been excellent. Wainwright has just nine walks in 40.1 innings of work. He’s also been one of the most consistent starters in all of baseball. In six 2020 starts his game scores have been 66, 59, 57, 49, 78 and 58. Keep in mind the MLB average is 50, so you know when you bet on Wainwright in 2020 you are going to get a good effort. Luis Castillo has had nice success against the Cards with an average game score of 56 in his last five starts in this series. But in his last seven starts overall he is a league average of 50. Cincinnati is only averaging 3.4 runs per contest offensively its last ten games, with a high of six. This isn’t a team crossing the plate on a regular basis. On the season vs righties the Cards are a league average 100, while the Reds are 89, 11% worse than league average. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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09-10-20 | Giants +165 v. Padres | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
967 San Francisco at San Diego Two righties go dead to head in this one as Cahill and Paddock do battle. Both teams have hit righties well this year with the Padres coming in at a wRC+ of 125 and the Giants 110. That give the host a 15% offensive edge. But when looking at the starters it’s been Trevor Cahill who has had the more impressive season. His game scores this year have been 50, 50, 68, 53 and 53. All league average or better. Chris Paddack is averaging a 47 game score on the season. In his MLB career he has permitted 33 home runs in just 188 innings. Even in his last two starts in which he didn’t allow a homer, his average game score was just 52. Over the last three seasons the Giants have won 22 of the 41 meetings. Over the last ten games overall, the Giants have scored 71 runs while allowing just 36. And you are going to make them an underdog of this magnitude? We don’t think so, give us the Giants at this inflated price. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |