Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-22-21 | Golden Knights v. Coyotes +155 | 2-5 | Win | 155 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
28 Las Vegas at Arizona The Knights are a perfect 4-0 on the season, but have been very fortunate thus far with great 3rd period success. The Golden Knights are outscoring the opposition in 5 on 5 10-5 thus far. But when looking at xGF% they rank 16th in the league. Vegas has gotten great goaltending thus far, but have been very inconsistent in scoring. Arizona is a team we want to be on in the underdog role. Despite the 1-2-1 record this club ranks 7th in the league in xGF% at 55.22. Just above Colorado, Montreal and Calgary. This despite being outscored 9-7 in 5 on 5 action. We watch every Vegas game being a season ticket holder. This team has been extremely fortunate in the early going. PLAY ARIZONA |
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01-22-21 | Hawks -6 v. Wolves | 116-98 | Win | 102 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
541 Atlanta at Minnesota The Hawks just beat this Timberwolves team 108-97 just four days ago in Atlanta. Now back to .500 on the season at 7-7, it’s time for Atlanta to get a very important victory. With Milwaukee, the LA Clippers and Brooklyn on deck, this is a must win game for the visitor. Atlanta ranks 2nd in the league on the offensive glass, while Minnesota is dead last in keeping opponents off the offensive boards. That will be a huge edge for Atlanta with key front court plays out for this Minnesota team which is still missing three key contributors. The T-Wolves simply don’t have the scoring ability to keep this close, especially when your defense ranks 29th in points per possession. PLAY ATLANTA |
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01-22-21 | Sabres -109 v. Capitals | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
15 Buffalo at Washington Senators will be short handed tonight with the Covid news affecting key players. Even at full strength this team has been a bit overrated this year. Washington ranks 23rd in 5 on 5 xGF%. They have outscored the opposition 5 on 5 12-7 but are only showing 45.79% in xGF%. Now without key pieces we expect this team to struggle. As opposed to Washington, Buffalo is a team we want to play on. Despite the 1-3-0 record this team ranks 3rd in the NHL in 5 on 5 xGF% of 58.61. The Sabres have been outscored 9-7 in 5 on 5, but deserve a much better result. PLAY BUFFALO |
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01-22-21 | Georgia State v. Appalachian State +4 | Top | 71-80 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
836 Georgia State at Appalachian State The Panthers have gotten off to a nice 8-2 start on the season, 2-1 in the Sun Belt Conference. Coming off a rarity, three straight games against Coastal Carolina. After winning the last two, we can see this team having a bit of a letdown here. Georgia State is a team that forces defensive turnovers and gets to the foul line. But this team ranks 329th in free throw shooting at 61.9%. Always tough laying points with a bad free throw shooting team, especially on the road. App State ranks 2nd in the nation in opponent free throw rate, as they simply do not give away free points at the line. They also take decent care of the ball, so turnovers shouldn’t be a concern. The Mountaineers are 7-2 straight up at Holmes Center this year, with one of those losses coming in overtime. This should be a good matchup for the home underdog. PLAY APPALACHIAN STATE |
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01-21-21 | Canadiens -131 v. Canucks | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
11 Montreal at Vancouver The Habs outplayed the Canucks last night and still walked away with a shootout loss. We look for Montreal to even the score here. They rank 12th in the league in 5 vs 5 xGF% compared to the host at 26th. The Vancouver victory yesterday was the first of the season. A main reason was the penalty situation. The Habs had 12 penally minutes while the Canucks had just two. Montreal is the better team and primed after what they feel was a game it should have won. PLAY MONTREAL |
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01-21-21 | Portland +22.5 v. BYU | 67-95 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
757 Portland at BYU The Pilots are not a good team and are 0-4 in conference. They enter play having dropped five straight games. But the spot screams Portland here. BYU just played San Francisco, St Mary’s and Gonzaga, with a home and home with Pepperdine on deck. They have won 6 of 7 with the only loss at Gonzaga. After facing the top of the conference we can’t see the Cougars getting excited to play the Pilots here, with its next game coming up on Saturday. BYU is clearly the better team, but this line is a high threshold to overcome. PLAY PORTLAND |
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01-21-21 | Lakers v. Bucks UNDER 229 | 113-106 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
524 LA Lakers at Milwaukee These two teams have played the weakest defensive strength of schedules in the league. So their offensive numbers are a bit inflated coming into this matchup. The Bucks defensive possession length is 14.8 seconds, which is the highest in the league. Neither team draws a lot of fouls and these are the two top teams in defensive free throw rate. So scoring with the clock stopped won’t be much of a factor. The Lakers lead the NBA in defensive points per possession, and both squads are off a rare loss. Look for this game to have extra intensity as it stays well below the posted total. PLAY UNDER |
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01-21-21 | Jets v. Senators +110 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
2 Winnipeg at Ottawa Thursday the Jets beat Ottawa 4-3 in overtime. The Senators dominated play in that contest with a 71.7% winning expectancy, along with a 2.96-1.80 goal expectancy. Murray was terrible in the net with a .857 save percentage. In xGF% the Jets rank 28th in the league while the Senators are a surprising 5th. Look for the host to get its revenge here as Ottawa continues its good start to the season. PLAY OTTAWA |
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01-20-21 | Magic -3.5 v. Wolves | 97-96 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
513 Orlando at Minnesota Two teams desperately looking for a victory. Orlando has really struggled to put the ball in the basket as of late with the team suffering key injuries. But the Magic have done a nice job with turnovers ranking 5th offensively. The Magic have also done a fine job of keeping the opposition off the offense glass ranking 4th. Minnesota on the other hand have struggled keeping the opposition off the offensive boards. Especially now without its best player Towns who is down with Covid. The Timberwolves have beeb a sieve defensively, so we expect the Magic even shorthanded to have offensive success. PLAY ORLANDO |
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01-20-21 | Northwestern v. Wisconsin -11.5 | Top | 52-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
712 Northwestern at Wisconsin After starting the conference season with a 3-0 mark, the opposition has made the needed adjustments to Chris Collins’ scheme. The Wildcats have dropped five straight losing by margins of 23, 10, 25, 19 and 15 points. Now they must travel to what evanmiya.com considers the strongest home court in the country. Wisconsin has had plenty of time to prepare after bouncing back from that terrible performance at Michigan. It won 60-54 at Rutgers, a tough place to play. Wisconsin shot 6 of 25 from distance against the Scarlet Knights, the worst long distance shooting of the season. We expect the Badgers to run the Wildcats out of the building. PLAY WISCONSIN |
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01-19-21 | Pelicans v. Jazz -6 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
572 New Orleans at Utah Pelicans finally got back into the win column on Sunday with a 128-123 win over Sacramento. Now they face Utah in elevation for two games over a three day span. This team is excellent on the boards, but struggle from the exterior. Utah comes in with five straight victories for this six game home stand. The Jazz have been pounding the offensive boards this year, and have been terrific defensively. Ranking 1st in defensive effective field goal percentage and free throw rate. This club defends well without fouling, a unique trait that’s hard to find. Utah is terrific at shooting from distance and the visitor gives up the most 3 pointers in the league. PLAY UTAH |
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01-19-21 | Colorado State +8 v. Utah State | 64-83 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
635 Colorado State at Utah State Strong spot here for the Rams who have won 8 of 9 with the lone loss coming at San Diego State. Utah State is undefeated in conference and they just swept San Diego State at home. Keep in mind there were many questions about the Aggies heading into that two game stretch. They had already lost to VCU, South Dakota State and BYU. The schedule was loaded with weak opposition in their victories. Now off back to back show me games, we can’t help but think this team is a bit overrated. PLAY COLORADO STATE |
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01-19-21 | Blue Jackets v. Red Wings +160 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 160 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
072 Columbus at Detroit Really like the way Detroit played yesterday despite the loss. This is a team that doesn’t have a great deal of talent, but has been very feisty thus far. Been looking for the chance to fade the Blue Jackets, and this looks like a terrific squad. Clear fade of a team we feel is overrated. PLAY DETROIT |
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01-19-21 | Blackhawks +148 v. Panthers | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
63 Chicago at Florida Panthers seem to be getting a great deal of credit for just one game. Our xGF% numbers with 5 on 5 ranks them near the bottom at 27th. Not the type of numbers we want with a favorite of this size. Chicago on the other hand is 21st in that same category, despite not tasting victory yet this season. This is the type of game the pros pad their bankrolls with. PLAY CHICAGO |
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01-18-21 | Hurricanes -114 v. Predators | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 8 m | Show | |
45 Carolina at Nashville To our eyes the Hurricanes have been just as impressive as any other team in the early going. They lost a game they dominated last time out vs Detroit, so there is no looking past the Preds tonight. Nashville is undefeated with back to back wins over Columbus. But we weren’t impressed at all in those victories. The better all around team is Carolina, and they bounce back here. PLAY CAROLINA |
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01-17-21 | Tarleton St v. Weber State -12 | Top | 79-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
842 Tarleton State at Weber State This is a huge situational advantage for the host. The visitor is one of the worst programs in Division 1 hoops. It has yet to beat a team on its Divion 1 schedule. They are playing the third road game in three days, and only use a seven man rotation. Weber State has 13 days off because of Covid, and played yesterday in a game it won by 80 points. The bench played extended minutes in that contest. So we have a very rested team that got the rust off yesterday against Yellowstone Christian. Well rested in altitude is the situation today. A huge edge for the host. PLAY WEBER STATE |
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01-17-21 | Bucs v. Saints -3 | 30-20 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 18 m | Show | |
308 Tampa Bay at New Orleans We’ve watched both of the previous meetings and it’s clear that this is a bad matchup for Tom Brady and the Bucs. He doesn’t have the ability to throw the ball long with accuracy against this defense. A stop unit very much superior to the Bucs defense. Drew Brees is much like Brady, in that he doesn’t have the arm strength. But he has been playing in this offense for years, and he never was a gun slinger. Teams that have beaten the opposition twice previously have won over 65% in this third meeting. The better team at home gets it done. PLAY NEW ORLEANS |
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01-17-21 | Browns v. Chiefs OVER 57 | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -104 | 26 h 53 m | Show |
305 Cleveland at Kansas City In order to compete with the Chiefs you need to match them on the scoreboard. This Cleveland team has the ability to do so. It’s the most explosive running attack in the NFL, and KC is weak against the run. The Chiefs should have a field day passing on this Browns defense. Sure Cleveland will get its two best secondary players back, but Kansas City has more than two major weapons in the passing game. The Browns are extremely weak covering tight ends, so Kelce should have a monster day. We expect this game to be high scoring with both teams finding plenty of success. PLAY OVER |
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01-17-21 | Western Kentucky v. Marshall -2.5 | Top | 69-67 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 60 m | Show |
816 Western Kentucky at Marshall Quick home and home for these two after the Hilltoppers won on Friday 81-73. We expect some regression from the foul line for the visitor who ranks 6th in the country in free throw shooting percentage. That’s a far cry from the 252nd ranked 3 point percentage, and 157th ranked 2 point offensive percentage. Marshall isn’t very good at getting to the line, but the previous matchup was by far the worst in that regard all season. Just a 7.0 free throw rate compared to a season rank of 25.9. We also see that the Thundering Herd allowed a season high 43.8 offensive rebounding percentage. Marshall has lost on this court just once all season, in overtime to a Top 70 Toledo team. Look for Dan D’Antoni to have his team playing with much more energy here than on Friday. PLAY MARSHALL |
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01-17-21 | Penn State +5.5 v. Purdue | 72-80 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 21 m | Show | |
807 Penn State at Purdue Extremely important game for the Nittany Lions who are already 0-3 in conference. State is 3-4 overall on the season with two of those losses in overtime, and a four point defeat at Michigan. The only time Penn State wasn’t competitive was in a 98-81 home loss to Illinois. Purdue sits at 9-5 on the year and 4-3 in Big 10 action. Off back to back wins over Michigan State and Indiana. This is the first time the Boiler Makers have played at home since Christmas Day. Off four straight road games including back to back victories, this could very well be a letdown spot for the host. Purdue has the fourth worst home court advantage in the league according to the excellent site evanmiya.com. Our numbers show plenty of value on the visitor. PLAY PENN STATE |
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01-16-21 | Kansas State v. Texas -17 | 67-82 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
770 Kansas State at Texas The Wildcats have been a major disappointment this season. This club has a defensive efficiency field goal percentage of 54.6, ranking 312th in the country. It doesn’t defend well from anywhere on the court. We’ve been really impressed by this Texas squad, both offensively and defensively. Coming off a last second loss to Texas Tech, after blowing a sizable lead. We expect Shaka Smart and his club to play with added intensity here. PLAY TEXAS |
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01-16-21 | Arizona State v. Oregon State +6 | 79-80 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
760 Arizona State at Oregon State Been fading the Sun Devils all season with solid success. That continues on Saturday as we simply do not trust this team as a road favorite. It’s one and done for this team as it ranks 329th in the nation in offensive rebounding success. Coming off a game in which it held USC to 3 of 22 from distance and still lost by nine points, this continues to be a fade team. Oregon State is off a blowout home loss to Arizona, the only noncompetitive game of the season for the Beavers. With a tough game with USC on deck, this is the game the Beavers need to have. PLAY OREGON STATE |
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01-16-21 | Rams v. Packers UNDER 45.5 | Top | 18-32 | Loss | -101 | 77 h 45 m | Show |
302 Los Angeles at Green Bay This Rams defense is legit, holding 8 of 17 opponents this year to it’s three lowest yardage totals on the season. And it’s getting better as the year has gone on. In fact, 4 of the last 5 opponents have been held to bottom three seasonal outputs. The only team to have any yardage success, was the Jets in that shocking 17 point underdog upset. The Rams are starting a quarterback with a broken thumb on his throwing hand in a cold weather game. Not the ideal situation for a warm weather visitor. With offenses struggling we expect this to be a tightly fought low scoring affair. PLAY UNDER |
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01-16-21 | Sharks v. Coyotes -125 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 37 m | Show | |
16 San Jose at Arizona The Coyotes outplayed the Sharks in the last matchup but lost based on puck luck. In retrospect we should have been on the visitor in the opening game. The media was brutal in the offseason regarding the demise of the Sharks, and the team came out with something to prove. But it’s still an aging team that has seen better days. Look for more normalcy here as the Coyotes get their revenge. PLAY ARIZONA |
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01-15-21 | Middle Tennessee -1 v. Southern Miss | 54-84 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
881 Middle Tennessee at Southern Miss Blue Raiders are a bad offensive team, no doubt about it. But this team does a fine job defensively. They rank 2nd in the country defending the three. Overall 60th in the nation in defensive effective field goal percentage. It’s also a team that forces turnovers with a 19th ranking. Southern Miss isn’t any better offensively. Turnovers are a major problem for the Golden Eagles, ranking 322nd offensively and 292nd defensively. We trust the much better defense with a big ball handling advantage. PLAY MIDDLE TENNESSEE |
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01-15-21 | Penguins -106 v. Flyers | 2-5 | Loss | -106 | 20 h 4 m | Show | |
1 Pittsburgh at Philadelphia If you watched the last meeting on opening night, it was clear that the Penguins were the aggressor. In fact, they had the edge in expected goals 2.74 to 2.50. We rate these two clubs evenly to start the season. And without any home ice advantage, along with no travel. We look for the visitor to even up this quick two game opening series. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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01-15-21 | Bowling Green v. Buffalo -5 | Top | 76-69 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
852 Bowling Green at Buffalo The Falcons took the previous meeting at home 86-78, getting to the free throw line on a regular basis. That’s not a regular occurance for this team and we expect somewhat of a reversal here. Buffalo struggled offensively early on, but have been much better the past four games. The Bulls have won 4 of 5 as of late with the lone loss in overtime at Syracuse. Like the revenge angle here for a team on the rise. PLAY BUFFALO |
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01-14-21 | Ducks +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -132 | 35 h 31 m | Show |
71 Anaheim at Las Vegas The Ducks don’t have a great deal of offense, but their youth is very exciting. This is a team that will get better as the year goes on, and will always play full out. Vegas is expected to contend out west, but we do have some worries early on with our home town team. This was by far the strongest home arena in the NHL in the past. The lack of fans along with the league’s Covid rules will lessen that advantage more than any other team. Vegas is always a destination for visiting teams, but these players won’t be going out partying like in the past. The Golden Knights also will be without two major pieces of the puzzle this season because of cap issues. While Petrangelo is a great signing, not sure this team is better without Schmitty and Patches. PLAY ANAHEIM +1 1/2 |
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01-14-21 | Northern Colorado -6 v. Idaho | 74-54 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
745 Northern Colorado at Idaho Backing the Bears here off three straight losses including an overtime affair last time out vs Montana State. At 2-4 in conference it’s time to get right for Steve Smiley’s bunch, against a very bad Idaho squad. The Vandals rank 319th in offensive adjusted efficiency, and 331st in defensive adjusted efficiency. If Idaho falls behind big it will be tough to battle back as they don’t shoot many threes, and Northern Colorado is 59th in the country defending from distance. PLAY NORTHERN COLORADO |
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01-14-21 | Longwood v. Winthrop -16 | 61-72 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
307026 Longwood at Winthrop This game all comes down to tempo. The Lancers are a slow paced team that struggles to defend at the rim. Withrop on the other hand has superior athletes and leads the nation in adjusted tempo. The host will be able to dictate the pace, and the visitor has been terrible in transition defense. Lay it! PLAY WINTHROP |
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01-14-21 | Stanford v. Utah +1.5 | Top | 65-79 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
718 Stanford at Utah The Cardinal have reeled off 7 of 8 wins as of late, but were only 1-1 against top 100 opposition. The victory by just three points at home against Arizona. This team ranks 286th in the nation in 3 point percentage. The past five games Stanford has gone 18 of 77 23% from long range. That tells us that if the Cardinal fall behind here it will be very difficult to come back. Utah is just 4-5 on the season but are a much better team than the record suggests. According to the Bart Torvic site, the Utes should have won six of those contests. Off four straight losses this is a must win for the host. We’ve been looking to back the underrated Utes and the time is right. PLAY UTAH |
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01-13-21 | Canucks +125 v. Oilers | 5-3 | Win | 125 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
Vancouver at Edmonton PLAY VANCOUVER |
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01-13-21 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State -6.5 | 56-55 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
696 Texas A&M at Mississippi State Aggies are 6-4 on the season but only 1-3 in conference action. They are 1-4 straight up against top 100 opposition. The defense when stepping up in class has been very poor. In fact, 3 of the last 4 opponents had points per possession numbers of 1.18, 1.07 and 1.22. This is a team that ranks 335th in offensive turnover percentage. Free throw percentage should see major regression for both teams here. A&M rank 9th in defensive percentage at 61.1, while Miss State ranks 310th offensively at 63.2%. Considering Ben Howland’s team ranks 19th in 3 pointers and 177th in two pointers, you would expect much better shooting from the line. With a top 40 ranked Florida on deck, the Bulldogs need this victory to continue the winning pace. Keep in mind the only losses the last 10 games have been in double overtime games. Clear class difference here. PLAY MISSISSIPPI STATE |
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01-13-21 | Canadiens +125 v. Maple Leafs | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 97 h 1 m | Show | |
43 Montreal at Toronto We really liked the way the Habs played at the end of last season. This is a team on the rise. Expect the goaltending to be even better this season. We always like taking teams that have strong possession numbers, and this team ranked right behind the Golden Knights and the Lightning in that regard a year ago. Puck luck should be much better this season for Montreal. Toronto made a lot of changes in the offseason, and without preseason games we can assume a feeling out period early on. This is a great offense but we still have concerns about the defense and goaltending. Home ice advantage will be very low this season, so catching plus money with a capable road team is the way to go here. PLAY MONTREAL |
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01-12-21 | Alabama v. Kentucky -3 | 85-65 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
638 Alabama at Kentucky Bama has been a hot team as of late in the betting markets, after winning five straight and beating Mississippi and Tennessee. But you are paying a price now with this high scoring fan favorite. Keep in mind the Tide has only played two true road games on the season. Kentucky, like always it seems is an extremely young team. The Wildcats started the slate with a 1-6 record but have run off three straight wins in conference action. Keion Brooks rejoined the lineup last time out against Florida, and he should get extended minutes here. Virtually all the key college basketball websites will have Alabama as the favorite here. But they don’t include Brooks or the way Kentucky has played as of late. In fact, Kentucky has been taking wise guy money after the opener. We agree with that notion as the Cats are back baby! PLAY KENTUCKY |
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01-12-21 | Jazz v. Cavs UNDER 207 | Top | 117-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
536 Utah at Cleveland Jazz in their sixth of seven on the road with the finale in Washington tomorrow. Don’t think Utah wants to push the pace with tired legs, especially with another game tomorrow. This team has had two back to backs already this season, scoring just 95 and 96 points on the front end of those occurrences. Cleveland has now played eight straight games scoring less than the century mark. This team simply doesn’t have any scoring with virtually half the squad sitting on the sidelines. Worked for us yesterday, let’s play it again. PLAY UNDER |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama OVER 74.5 | Top | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 79 h 4 m | Show |
499 Ohio State & Alabama We are taught to buy low and sell high in sports betting. Ohio State is off its best game of the season by far, with a 144.7 game grade according to Phil Steele. The previous high was against Michigan State 129.9. Ohio State has a tremendous +2.8 ypc advantage (6.0-3.2). Offensively Ohio State was either first or second in yards vs every opponent they played this season. The Buckeyes really only played against one good QB all season, last week against Clemson, and they permitted 400 passing yards. Alabama has a 1.9 ypc advantage on the season (5.1-3.2). The Tide defensively held just two teams to season lows in yardage, Mississippi State and Arkansas. Alabama struggled defensively against competent passing offenses. This game looks like a complete shootout as we can't see either defense making stops. Keep in mind both these teams played games in which they had big leads and turned off the offensive faucet. Don't think that will be the case here. PLAY OVER |
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01-11-21 | Grizzlies v. Cavs UNDER 206.5 | Top | 101-91 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
518 Memphis at Cleveland Since the Ja Morant injury the Grizzlies are averaging just 100 points per game. These two played just a few days ago and the Cavaliers pulled out a 94-90 victory. Since that time the Cavs have gotten Isaac Okoro back, their best overall defender. Cleveland has failed to reach 100 points in seven straight games. Sexton is day to day while virtually half the team is currently out. The only way either of these teams have success is on the defensive end of the court. PLAY UNDER |
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01-10-21 | Browns v. Steelers -3.5 | 48-37 | Loss | -113 | 153 h 48 m | Show | |
152 Cleveland at Pittsburgh Simply put the Steelers own the Browns. Big Ben has owned Cleveland in his career. Even Sunday in a game the Steelers played backups, the Browns really struggled to get the outright victory. This line will rise during the week, so let’s get this play in right now. |
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01-09-21 | UNLV v. Colorado State -7 | 80-83 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
692 UNLV at Colorado State Rebels enter this contest at 1-5 on the season after battling the Rams tooth and nail in a 74-71 loss on Thursday. This team simply has not played well at all this season, especially defensively. Ranking 290th in defensive effective field goal percentage. They are 309th in getting to the line, while the opposition get there 19.3% more often. We want no part of this team right now until they can stop someone. Too many bad shots from Bryce Hamilton and his 47.9 effective field goal percentage. Colorado State also with San Diego State and Boise State are the class of this conference. The Rams are just 2-2 on the road thus far, a perfect 5-0 in this building. The Rams struggled on the boards in the first meeting with a weak 10.8 offensive rebounding percentage. Look for the host to clamp down defensively here. PLAY COLORADO STATE |
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01-09-21 | Alabama -5 v. Auburn | 94-90 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 15 m | Show | |
607 Alabama at Auburn Tide is riding high right now holding five straight opponents to under a full point per possession. This is a club ranking 33rd in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 34th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Auburn has lost its first three conference games, having a very tough time holding on to the ball. Ranking 306th on the season in turnover percentage. Not a good matchup for an Alabama team looking to run. The poor 62.1% free throw percentage is a concern in the final moments of both halves. Lay it with the rolling Tide. PLAY ALABAMA |
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01-09-21 | Ohio State v. Rutgers -4 | 79-68 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 59 m | Show | |
616 Ohio State at Rutgers State beat Rutgers 80-68 earlier by dominating from 2 point range, hitting 23 of 39 shots. But that hasn’t been the norm for the Buckeyes who are middle of the pack in that stat on the season. Rutgers has dropped 3 of 4 including back to back losses against Iowa and Michigan State. Shooting was a problem in both those contests, especially the embarrassment vs the Spartans. In that game the Scarlet Knights had a points per possession number of 0.66 which is by far the worst shooting game of the season. We will look for a strong rebound today from the host, as it gains revenge on the Buckeyes. PLAY RUTGERS |
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01-08-21 | Thunder v. Knicks -2 | Top | 101-89 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
550 Oklahoma City at New York The Thunder enter play with a 3-4 mark, but have been very fortunate to have that number of wins. They are 3rd in the NBA in wins over expectation, as their numbers show it should have only 1.9 victories. This is a team that ranks 30th in points per possession, and 30th in offensive rebounding percentage. New York ranks 3rd defensively in points per possession, and 2nd in effective field goal percentage. Austin Rivers ranks in the 100th percentile in points per shot attempt, while Julius Randle is in the 98th percentile in bigs with a 30.2% assist rate. Can’t see the Thunder having any success offensively here as the Knicks continue to be underrated in the betting markets. PLAY NEW YORK |
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01-08-21 | Lipscomb v. Bellarmine +1 | 77-72 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
307056 Lipscomb at Bellarmine The Bisons have yet to win a road game all season. This was a 16 win team a year ago, after three straight 20 win campaigns. The step back has been sizable. Lipscomb hasn’t left Nashville in over a month, with seven straight home games. We’ve been impressed by Ballarmine in its first year of division one basketball. Their only loss at home this season has been to Chattanooga who is currently 10-2 on the season. The host has terrible defensive numbers but do rank 42nd in offensive field goal percentage. They also lead the nation in 3 point field goal percentage. While that obviously will regress, Lipscomb doesn’t have the defense to take advantage. PLAY BELLARMINE |
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01-07-21 | Illinois v. Northwestern +6.5 | 81-56 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
758 Illinois at Northwestern The Illini have been excellent so far this season with an 8-3 record. But they are just 2-2 straight up on the road with victories over a down Duke team and Penn State. Illinois doesn’t put any pressure on the oppositions ball handlers, ranking 319th in opponent turnover percentage. That’s a big deal when you are playing on the road. Northwestern is off back to back road losses to two of the top three teams in the league, Iowa and Michigan. In those games the opposition shot lights out from downtown, 23 of 53. Keep in mind the Wildcats rank 96th in the country in defending the three. Now back at home we look for this team to take this game to the wire. They have permitted 39 of 149, just 26% from 3 point range at home. PLAY NORTHWESTERN |
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01-07-21 | UNLV v. Colorado State -9 | Top | 71-74 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
740 UNLV at Colorado State Rebels enter this contest at 1-4 on the season and they haven’t played since December 5th because of Covid. This team simply has not played well at all this season, especially defensively. Ranking 291st in defensive effective field goal percentage. They are 331st in getting to the line, while the opposition get there 19.2% more often. We want no part of this team right now until they can stop someone. Too many bad shots from Bryce Hamilton and his 49.5 effective field goal percentage. Colorado State also with San Diego State and Boise State are the class of this conference. The Rams are just 2-2 on the road thus far, a perfect 4-0 in this building. The wins here have been by margins of 12, 39, 22 and 22 points. Since it’s a back to back situation with the Rebels, the altitude should be more pronounced in the first game. The Rams run defensive circles around the Rebels, the line here is high for a reason. PLAY COLORADO STATE |
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01-07-21 | Oregon v. Colorado -3 | 72-79 | Win | 100 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
766 Oregon at Colorado This is the best team the Ducks have played all year, and it’s just the second true road game of the season. The first was an unimpressive 74-71 win at Washington. Colorado is back home after a tough three games on the road at Arizona, USC and UCLA. All three Buffalo losses this season have come on the road. With this being the only game in an 11 day stretch, Colorado should be primed to even up its conference record at 2-2. This team ranks 4th in the nation in free throw shooting, which is a big consideration in a low lined game. Bounce back for the Buffs. PLAY COLORADO |
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01-06-21 | Virginia Tech +5 v. Louisville | Top | 71-73 | Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
673 Virginia Tech at Louisville Hokies first road game of the season could be a concern here. That said, we’ve been very impressed by VT thus far this season. Coming in with an 8-1 mark with wins over Villanova and Clemson. Louisville is still without two of its best players, and we still aren’t sold on the Cards offense. This team has won 7 of 8, but were very fortunate to beat Kentucky and Seton Hall. Keep in mind opponents are only shooting 61% from the free throw line, which obviously isn’t sustainable. Give us the points in what should be a very tight contest. PLAY VIRGINIA TECH |
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01-05-21 | Rutgers +2.5 v. Michigan State | 45-68 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
633 Rutgers at Michigan State Early money has come in on the due system of playing Michigan State in a must win game. But we simply can’t see it. The Spartans have underperformed all season, and a 7 point victory over Nebraska isn’t going to change our mind. This team held all but one non-conference opponent to less than 1.00 points per possession. But once they started playing teams that know them the Spartans have struggled defensively. The Spartans don’t force turnovers ranking 304th in the country, and rarely get to the free throw line 271st, to take advantage of a 33rd ranked free throw percentage. Rutgers only losses were a 12 point defeat at Ohio State, and a 2 point loss at home to powerhouse Iowa last time out. Bart Torvik’s website shows the Scarlet Knights should have won both those games according to his game scores. Rutgers is a proven commodity while Michigan State looks a major step down from previous editions. PLAY RUTGERS |
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01-05-21 | Jazz v. Nets +4.5 | 96-130 | Win | 100 | 2 h 10 m | Show | |
502 Utah at Brooklyn Nets will be without Kevin Durant tonight and the line has moved 7 1/2 points because of it. That’s too much of a move in our opinion as Durant is just starting to get his feel with these new teammates. Purely a value play on this one as we get the Nets at home as a sizable underdog. Can’t pass this one up. PLAY NEW JERSEY |
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01-04-21 | Cavs +5.5 v. Magic | Top | 83-103 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
575 Cleveland at Orlando The Magic really want to run this year, but they haven’t done it with a whole lot of success thus far. Orlando will have troubles tonight against a Cavs team that has had success in the open court as well as in the half court game. We really expect the big men for Cleveland to have a big night as the Orlando front court players are weak defensively, especially the All-Star center who is more worried about offense. Cleveland is the more rounded team here and we expect this club to win at least one of these two games outright. The points are a nice bonus. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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01-04-21 | Southern Illinois +10.5 v. Drake | Top | 55-86 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
867 Southern Illinois at Drake Heading into this season Southern Illinois was expected to finish 4th in the Missouri Valley Conference. Drake was expected to be a 7th place team. Now after ten or so games being played Drake is a double digit home favorite against the Salukis. Sure the Bulldogs pulled away late for an 18 point victory yesterday, but this was a close game for the majority of the contest. In fact, that win yesterday was the first Division 1 victory for the Bulldogs over a team with a current winning record. And it isn’t even close as many of the Drake victims have been horrible. Drake is undefeated on the season against the spread. Many people have used Drake as their own personal ATM. But the betting lines tend to catch up, and this line based on talent is simply insane. PLAY SOUTHERN ILLINOIS |
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01-03-21 | Jets +4.5 v. Patriots | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -110 | 158 h 23 m | Show |
115 NY Jets at New England Now that tanking for Trevor is over in New York, the Jets have played really good ball the last two weeks. It also helps that New York just played a Browns team without its top four receivers. Because the New England passing game downfield has been non-existent this season. The Patriots have a short week of preparation, from playing Monday night. This is also a quick revenge game for the Jets who should have beaten the Pats on national television just a few weeks ago. PLAY NEW YORK JETS |
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01-02-21 | Stanford v. Oregon -5.5 | Top | 56-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
Undefeated in the New Year after sweeping the Friday board. Now on a 26-17 overall run. We set our sights out west for this Strong Selection in College Basketball. One club on this PAC 12 card has a major mismatch advantage we feel isn't being fully appreciated in these betting markets. We set our sights on taking full advantage of that weakness. |
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01-02-21 | St Bonaventure +5 v. Richmond | 69-66 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
715 St Bonaventure at Richmond Like the Bonnies here who we feel are underrated because of a small sample size. Off a loss to Rhode Island on Wednesday, we look for this game to go down to the wire. The overall numbers show this team to be a bad shooting team from distance. But the 1 of 14 opener against Akron should be taken with a grain of salt. This team was coming out of covid and was playing a veteran team. Since that time the Bonnies have hit 12 of 31 from deep. This is a club that creates turnovers ranking 38th in the country. It’s also a team that ranks 16th defensively in 3 point percentage. Richmond really struggled against West Virginia earlier, a team that puts pressure on the guards. We look for more of the same in this contest. PLAY ST BONNAVENTURE |
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01-02-21 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma -1.5 | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
680 West Virginia at Oklahoma Really tough matchup for the Mountaineers after having its best offensive rebounder opt out. This is a team that has struggled offensively all year, especially with outside shooting. Oklahoma excels in that regard defensively which puts them in a great position to win this game. The well coached Sooners will take advantage of the weaknesses of the visitor here and gain a comfortable win. PLAY OKLAHOMA |
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01-01-21 | Old Dominion v. Florida International +1.5 | 67-82 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
874 Old Dominion at Florida International Tough matchup here for the Monarchs who have been terrible defending from distance. In fact, Old Dominion is getting overwhelmed from 3 point range. The team ranks 279th in offensive 3 point shooting percentage, and 309th defending the three. FIU ranks 13th nationally from 3 point range. This is a team that depends on long distance shooting, attempting 26 or more in every game. Four times this season the Panthers have hoisted 40 or more from distance. Let’s back the host in this first of a back to back situation. PLAY FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL |
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01-01-21 | Cincinnati +7 v. Georgia | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
327 Cincinnati & Georgia Plenty of reasons to back the Bearcats here. This is an undefeated team with a chance to play a top team from the SEC. Cincinnati feels they were slighted by the selection committee and have something to prove. Georgia on the other hand did not have dreams before the season to be playing in this game. Their expectations were much higher. Throw in the fact that many of the top players for the Bulldogs are sitting out in preparation for the draft. And we have a team likely not fully focused on the contest. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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12-31-20 | Michigan -1 v. Maryland | Top | 84-73 | Win | 100 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
737 Michigan at Maryland The undefeated Wolverines have already beaten three top 100 squads by margins of 22, 4 and 20 points. This club ranks 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 33rd in the defensive equivalent. Michigan has dominated in the paint ranking 9th offensively and 2nd defensively. Michigan hasn’t played in six days, while Maryland is playing its fourth game in ten days. Maryland is 1-3 vs top 100 opponents, and the only win was last time out in a road upset of Wisconsin. While the offense for the Terrapins ranks 17th in adjusted efficiency, the Maryland defense isn’t high quality. In a pick and win situation the Wolverines have been by far the more consistent squad. PLAY MICHIGAN |
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12-29-20 | Knicks v. Cavs -3 | Top | 95-86 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
560 New York at Cleveland Coming into the season both these teams were rated almost exactly the same. The Knicks enter play at 1-2 while the surprising Cavaliers are undefeated at 3-0. We’ve watched all three Cleveland games, and this team is much better than the preseason expectations. The Cavs lead the league in spread difference at +16.7, and are 2nd in the NBA in defense. Cleveland now has two really good big men that have kept the opposition out of the paint. The offense is being led by two of the best young players at the guard spot in Garland and Sexton. Neither were very good defensively last year, but with the new style of play they have picked up the defense very well. In our opinion Garland was so bad last year he could be a nice comeback player of the year candidate. Kevin Love is out from 3-4 weeks, which actually helps the youngsters keep the ball moving. Cleveland has been excellent on assisted baskets in this young season. Number is cheap once again, as the Cavaliers are much improved. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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12-29-20 | Wofford v. Mercer -2.5 | 78-65 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
616 Wofford at Mercer Two teams we really like facing off tonight in Macon Georgia. This is stylistically a good matchup for the host. Wofford is a team that relies heavily on the 3 pointer, hoisting 30 or more in all but one game this season. It’s also a terrible free throw shooting team ranking 331st at 51.5%. Mercer on the other hand is at its best defending from downtown. They rank 54th in the nation in 3 point shooting defense, allowing just 28.7%. After back to back road games we like the Bears to shut down this Wofford offense. PLAY MERCER |
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12-28-20 | Missouri State +3.5 v. Northern Iowa | Top | 75-85 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
833 Missouri State at Northern Iowa Quick rematch after the Bears pounded Northern Iowa yesterday 79-59. The big differential that will be talked about is the perimeter shooting. The visitor shot 11 of 25 from 3, while the host was 4 of 20 from long distance. But keep in mind, the Panthers rank 250th in the country defending the 3 pointer. The only team they kept in check from distance was St Ambrose, a 2 for 25 from long distance, also the only win on the season for Northern Iowa. That 8% from distance really brings down these terrible defensive numbers. Missouri State has played much better ball in the early going. Despite the quick revenge situation, the Bears are the better team catching points. PLAY MISSOURI STATE |
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12-27-20 | 76ers v. Cavs +7 | Top | 94-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
530 Philadelphia at Cleveland Second game of a back to back for Joel Embiid after playing over 30 minutes last night at New York. Teams get up to play in Madison Square Garden, and a likely letdown here traveling to Cleveland is likely. The Cavs on the other hand have played very well to open the season. The offense is flowing better than anyone projected, and the defense is much better with the additions up front. This is a team with confidence right now, and the line is simply too high to not back the surprising Cavs at home. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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12-27-20 | Bengals v. Texans -7.5 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
464 Cincinnati at Houston The Bengals just played their Super Bowl on Monday night with a third string quarterback against their hated rival. Keep in mind even in that game how bad this offense has been. Now it’s taking on a Houston scoring unit that has moved the ball well all season. While Monday was the big game for the Bengals, this game means more for the disappointing Texans who actually entered the season with high expectations. Houston lets out some frustrations here. PLAY HOUSTON |
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12-26-20 | Liberty +7 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
283 Liberty & Coastal Carolina in Orlando Short and sweet. Our numbers have this as a four point advantage with the favorite. A one point loss cost Liberty its own undefeated season. And because of the national press Coastal has gotten, this line is inflated. Liberty has the ability to run the football extremely well and keep the opposition at bay. This game goes down to the final possession. PLAY LIBERTY |
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12-25-20 | Mavs v. Lakers -6 | 115-138 | Win | 100 | 23 h 6 m | Show | |
584 Dallas at LA Lakers We went against Dallas in the opener on Wednesday, and see no reason to change anything here. Without Porzingas to take some offensive pressure off Doncic, the Mavericks simply are not as good as they were a year ago. The Lakers failed to win or cover in the opener, but we could see that coming. Teams simply do not play well on ring night, and as expected the Lakers got off to a terrible start. You have to be ready to play four quarters and LA only played three. That won’t be the case here as we get the better team, at home, off a loss. Give us the champs. PLAY LOS ANGELES LAKERS |
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12-25-20 | Wisconsin v. Michigan State UNDER 140.5 | Top | 85-76 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
752 Wisconsin at Michigan State The Badgers have been a fan favorite this year, coming in with a 7-1 record. The only loss coming at Marquette, the lone road game on the schedule. Wisconsin put up great scoring numbers in non-conference play, but had just 65 on the road at Marquette, and 67 of the 120 scored vs Nebraska in the first conference game of the season. Michigan State sits at 6-1, but 0-1 in the Big Ten after losing to an improved Northwestern on the road Sunday. With road games on deck against Minnesota and Nebraska, this is a very important game for the Spartans. Teams in conference play know all about what you are trying to run offensively, which is why unders are preferred early in conference play. With the importance of this game, along with the pace rating of 324 for the Badgers, we expect this to be a low scoring affair. PLAY UNDER |
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12-23-20 | Mavs v. Suns -1 | 102-106 | Win | 103 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
576 Dallas at Phoenix Two teams with a lot of upside meet tonight in Arizona. Phoenix was undefeated in the bubble last season and has high expectations. It signed one of the most competitive players in the NBA to run the show in Chris Paul. His addition is exactly what this young talented team has needed. Dallas star Luka Doncic has admitted that he’s a bit out of shape in this early return to the NBA. Which could be a major problem for many teams after the shortened preseason. Porzingis being out certainly hurts the Mavs. Phoenix took 3 of 4 from Dallas last year, and the Suns are now a better squad. PLAY PHOENIX |
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12-23-20 | Hornets -2 v. Cavs | Top | 114-121 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
551 Charlotte at Cleveland The Cavaliers will have a tough time scoring tonight without Kevin Love and its key sixth man. Colin Sexton is coming off an ankle injury in the final preseason game, so he likely won’t be 100%. Charlotte addition Gordon Hayward is expected to play after coming back from a broken finger. The addition of LaMelo Ball should make this team a step better than a season ago. With little to no home court advantage we prefer the team on the rise. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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12-22-20 | North Carolina -1 v. NC State | Top | 76-79 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
673 North Carolina at NC State The Tar Heels have played very well in this series as the coaching edge has definitely been with North Carolina. We backed the Tar Heels earlier in the week with success, and we feel the inside area will be dominated by the visitor. Keep in mind the Tar Heels rank 5th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. This team is also 20th in defensive adjusted efficiency. The Wolfpack doesn’t have very good guard play, and they are a bit beat up heading into what should be a physical contest. State has benefited from an easy slate, playing only one team ranking in the top 200. That was against St Louis, and the Wolfpack lost that game by 11. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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12-21-20 | Arkansas-Little Rock +1 v. Missouri State | 77-85 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 46 m | Show | |
781 Arkansas Little Rock at Missouri State The Trojans have gotten off to a nice 4-2 start. The offense has been impressive ranking 67th in effective field goal percentage, 46th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 30th in free throw rate. Missouri State is stepping up in class after beating William Jewell and Northwestern State. The Bears have terrific stats, but may have played the easiest schedule in the country. One area in which this team has struggled is free throw shooting. Ranking 319th in the nation at 57.1%. That number tells us more about the weak opposition, than the success the Bears have had. Give us the Trojans who have been better tested. PLAY ARKANSAS LITTLE ROCK |
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12-20-20 | 49ers -4 v. Cowboys | Top | 33-41 | Loss | -106 | 1 h 13 m | Show |
367 San Francisco at Dallas Late smart money has been backing the Niners this morning. We agree with the line move, good time to bet against a Cowboys team just playing out the season. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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12-19-20 | Radford v. Vanderbilt -11.5 | 50-59 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 13 m | Show | |
307230 Radford at Vanderbilt Not a huge fan of this Highlanders team who has questionable guard play. Redford lost all five starters from a year ago, and ranks 310th in offensive adjusted efficiency, and 245th defensively. This is a poor three point shooting team, which is not a good sign when the opponent has the better talented squad. Vandy is coming off a home loss to Richmond in which its defense failed them. This is a club that dominates the boards with a 10th place offensive rebounding ranking, along with a 9th place rating in keeping the opponents off the offensive boards. With a team that ranks 2nd in college basketball from the free throw line, we can feel secure laying the number here. PLAY VANDERBILT |
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12-19-20 | North Carolina -3 v. Kentucky | 75-63 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show | |
631 North Carolina at Kentucky Much prefer the Tar Heels here who have shown a lot more fight than the very young Wildcats. North Carolina’s only losses this year were to Texas and Iowa, two of the best squads in the country. In those games they lost the 3 point battle 26 to 7. Allowing the opposition to shoot 26 of 62 from long range. While the Tar Heels don’t shoot a lot from distance themselves, they need to limit the long ball from the opposition. The Tar Heels pound the boards hard ranking 3rd offensively and 60th defensively in rebounds. Kentucky has lost four straight games with every contest producing offensive points per possession numbers of under 96. Below the national average in each game. Kentucky ranks 296th in 3 point shooting, which is how you beat the Tar Heels. Look for the North Carolina big men to be the difference. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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12-19-20 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State +6 | Top | 27-21 | Push | 0 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
232 Oklahoma & Iowa State in Arlington Since Matt Campbell has come to Ames the Cyclones have fared well against the Sooners. Earlier this year Iowa State won 37-30, as a 7.5 point underdog. Last year as a 14.5 point underdog they lost by a single point. In 2018 Iowa State was an 18.5 point underdog and only lost by 10. In 2017 the Cyclones upset the Sooners 38-31 as a whopping 31 point underdog. In 2016 Iowa State lost by 10 while getting 20.5 points. That’s a perfect 5-0 ATS covering by 85 combined points. When looking at Phil Steele’s average game grades the Sooners should only be a 2.7 point favorite. Under Matt Campbell the Cyclones are 18-8 ATS as an underdog. Give us the better coached team catching points in a series they have dominated ATS. PLAY IOWA STATE |
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12-18-20 | Tennessee Tech v. Tennessee UNDER 129.5 | 49-103 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
838 Tennessee Tech at Tennessee The Golden Eagles rank 315th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. Every offensive statistic, including free throw shooting, say this team simply can’t score. Now it’s going up against arguably the best defense in the country. Tennessee is 22nd in the nation defending the three, and 27th defending the two pointer. That includes games against Colorado, Cincinnati and Appalachian State. This is a complete mismatch, as we doubt the Golden Eagles can reach 40 points. Instead of laying the huge number, we look for this to be a low scoring affair. BTW, Tennessee’s adjusted tempo is 329th. PLAY UNDER |
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12-17-20 | Nebraska-Omaha v. Wyoming -10.5 | 78-82 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
790 Nebraska Omaha at Wyoming Derrin Hansen’s bunch enters play with a 2-6 record with the wins coming against Middle Tennessee by a point, and SIU Edwardsville by two points. Omaha hasn’t produced an offensive ppp of over 96 in any of its eight contests. Its adjusted offensive efficiency is 307th in the country. The Mavericks just played at Colorado yesterday, and now travel to Wyoming off a 32 point loss. The Cowboys are well rested having not played since last Saturday. Wyoming, unlike tonights opposition, has had no problem scoring. Ranking 27th in offensive effective field goal percentage. Omaha is 53rd in the nation in adjusted tempo, which means it will try to force the faster pace, which helps the better team. PLAY WYOMING |
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12-16-20 | Montana v. Washington UNDER 132.5 | 66-58 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
702 Montana at Washington Two pretty good teams desperate for a victory here. Montana, expected to be among the top of the Big Sky, sits 1-4 on the season. In games involving top 100 squads the Grizzlies had a 89.3 ppp against USC and a 69.0 ppp against Georgia. This club is really struggling to score against sound defensive squads. Washington ranks 83rd in our power ratings, but has won just once in five games to start the season. The Huskies too have struggled when stepping up in class with ppp numbers of 77.7 vs Baylor, 89.0 against Utah and 98.9 vs Oregon. Expect the pace to be slow with the importance of a victory for both these teams. PLAY UNDER |
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12-16-20 | Northern Colorado -6 v. Denver | 83-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
683 Northern Colorado at Denver The Bears are off an embarrassing 81-45 loss just two days ago at Colorado. But this is expected to be a true contender in the Big Sky this year. Coming off three straight 21 or more win seasons, Steve Smiley has inherited a really talented squad in Greeley. Denver is one of the worst teams in college basketball, entering with a 1-3 record. The lone victory came against Regis, a team Northern Colorado also beat by a larger margin. The Pioneers rank 328th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 307th in adjusted defensive efficiency. What makes matters worse for Denver is they play with a fast pace, 52nd in the country. So not only are they bad on individual possessions, they want to play with more possessions per game. That’s not how you win basketball games. PLAY NORTHERN COLORADO |
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12-16-20 | San Diego -6 v. Cal Poly | 70-61 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
665 San Diego at Cal Poly The Toreros will be taking a major step down in class here after losing to both UCLA and Nevada to open the season. You can expect a regression after shooting just 32.9% from two point range in the first two contests. Cal Poly is 2-2 on the season, but both victories were against a lower division team and a weak San Jose State squad. The Mustangs have really struggled shooting thus far with 26.4% from behind the arc. Only one of the four games have they produced at least 50% from two point range. This is a get right game for the more talented squad. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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12-15-20 | Loyola-Chicago +9 v. Wisconsin | 63-77 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
643 Loyola Chicago at Wisconsin The Ramblers are expected to compete for the Missouri Valley title this season. They brought back all five starters from a 21 game winning club. The Ramblers have excellent guard play which is a major advantage in what is expected to be a low scoring game. This club ranks 3rd in the nation in effective field goal percentage, but it will be stepping way up in class in this contest. Wisconsin returns 4 of 5 starters from a 21 win team a year ago. The Badgers split the past two games against comparable clubs to the Ramblers in Marquette and Rhode Island. Wisconsin also has a lookahead to Saturday against Louisville. The Badgers do a great job of taking care of the ball, but this line is a bit high considering the posted total. Too many points to lay into a veteran Ramblers squad that you know has this game circled. PLAY LOYOLA CHICAGO |
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12-13-20 | Packers v. Lions OVER 54.5 | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
151 Green Bay at Detroit Expect a shootout here between these two divisional rivals. Packers have scored 30 points or more in 9 of 12 games, only once have they scored less than 22. Green Bay ranks 2nd in red zone efficiency, while the Lions rank 11th. The Packers are 25th in defensive red zone efficiency, while the Lions rank 30th. Detroit tied a season high of 34 points last week after the head coach firing, the 460 yards was clearly a season high. Keep in mind Detroit was highly thought of in season win circles, the coaching change could bring that excitement back for the future. With neither team defending the pass well, this game should easily surpass this total. PLAY OVER |
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12-12-20 | Boise State v. Wyoming +10 | Top | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
130 Boise State at Wyoming The Broncos have dominated this series winning 13 of 14 meetings. But last years game went to overtime, and this line is simply too high. Tough to back a road favorite who is being outgained 4.6 yards per carry to 3.8 yards per carry on the ground. Despite the 4-1 record Boise State has given up seven first downs more than they have obtained. This is a big play offense that is taking on a stop unit that allows just 3.6 yards per carry on the season. Wyoming the past four games have permitted just 92, 158, 255 and 110 yards through the air. This is also just the second home game of the season for the Cowboys. The last five seasons Wyoming is 21-6 straight up at War Memorial Stadium. A win here extends the Cowboys non-losing seasons streak to five years, that’s important in these trying times. PLAY WYOMING |
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12-12-20 | Winthrop -10.5 v. USC Upstate | 95-77 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
307669 Winthrop at USC Upstate The Eagles are the class of the Big South as this team is loaded. Excellent guard play and likely the best depth in the country. Defensively this club ranks 49th defending the three. Something that should revert to normal is opponent free throw percentage of 85.7%. USC Update brings back all five starters from a team that won 13 games a year ago. That’s after seasons of 6 and 7 victories the prior two seasons. Upstate has dropped four straight to open the season, by margins of 3, 17, 28 and 10 points. Last time out hosting Georgia Southern they came up short 72-69, but that can be explained in the long distance shooting numbers. The Spartans were 10 of 19 while Georgia Southern shot 2 of 17. Can’t expect those numbers to be sustainable against this quality opponent. Lay it! PLAY WINTHROP |
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12-12-20 | Michigan State v. Penn State -14.5 | Top | 24-39 | Win | 100 | 117 h 45 m | Show |
392 Michigan State at Penn State The Spartan running attack has been pathetic all season averaging just 2.7 yards per carry. Only once has this team broken the 4 ypc barrier, and that was 4.1 ypc against Northwestern. The passing game was adequate the first two games but since then this team has thrown for 180, 167, 131 and 227 yards. In those last four games the Spartans have totaled 48 total points, just 12 per game. Now it takes on a rejuvenated Penn State squad. The Nittany Lions lost the turnover battle in each of its first five games. Tough to win and cover when you can’t hold on to the football. But the last two games turnovers were even and Penn State won both contests by a combined score of 50-24. On the season the Nittany Lions have a whopping +87 first down advantage when compared to the Spartans. This team made every mistake imaginable early, but the talent is now shining through. PLAY PENN STATE |
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12-11-20 | Iowa State v. Iowa -12.5 | 77-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
632 Iowa State at Iowa Have not been impressed with the Cyclones through two games. A 17 point win over Arkansas Pine Bluff, one of the worst teams in the country, and a 3 point home loss to South Dakota State. State has been terrible from distance and rank 304th in the nation in free throw rank. Anytime you have a bombs away offense the results will be less predictable, but we can’t see this team having better success against a top 20 Hawkeyes team. Iowa is undefeated on the season and are off an impressive win over North Carolina. There is no lookahead for Iowa as Northern Illinois is on deck. Iowa leads the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, while Iowa State’s defense is middle of the pack. Unless the Cyclones suddenly get hot from deep, this looks like a blowout. PLAY IOWA |
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12-10-20 | UMKC +18 v. Minnesota | Top | 61-90 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
855 UMKC at Minnesota Kansas City enters play at 2-2 on the season and this is a major step up in class for the Roos. But this team is well rested having not played since November 30th, and is very slow paced. Ranking 309th in adjusted tempo, which is big when taking on a team as a double digit underdog. Minnesota enters with a perfect 5-0 record, but other than the 30 point opening night win over Green Bay, this team hasn’t looked overly impressive. The last three games were home wins over Boston College in overtime, a nine point victory over North Dakota, and a three point win hosting Loyola Marymount. This is a huge sandwich game after the overtime win over BC on Tuesday, and a huge conference matchup with Illinois next Tuesday. This really could be the toughest scheduling spot of the season for the Golden Gophers. PLAY UMKC |
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12-09-20 | Southern Utah -3.5 v. Utah Valley | Top | 81-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
637 Southern Utah at Utah Valley The Thunderbirds are flying high off back to back wins over a good Montana squad. Todd Simon and Southern Utah are off back to back 17 win seasons, and look improved again with a 3-1 start to the season. This despite allowing 43.5% shooting from beyond the arc. This is a veteran team with nine upperclassmen. Utah Valley is projected to be slightly higher in the standings than Chicago State. That should tell you all you need to know about the Wolverines. This club returns zero starters from a team that won just 11 games a season ago. They only have one senior on the roster, as this is obviously a young group. They were able to beat two non-division one programs, but lost to BYU by 22. With a 2-1 record this will be the last time we see the Wolverines over .500 this season. They rank 330th in adjusted offensive efficiency, shooting just 37.2% from 2 point range. Clear class difference here. PLAY SOUTHERN UTAH |
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12-09-20 | Eastern Illinois -3.5 v. Evansville | Top | 65-68 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
623 Eastern Illinois at Evansville The Panthers started the year with losses to big boys Wisconsin, Marquette and Dayton, but won the last two when stepping down in class. Eastern won 17 games a year ago under Jay Spoonhour, and the schedule gets easier from here on out. The Panthers have an amazing seven seniors on the roster, with just two underclassmen. Evansville was winless in the Missouri Valley Conference last year, and brings back four starters. Is that good or bad? So far, bad would be your answer, as the club has dropped three straight to start the season. Coming off a heartbreaking double overtime loss to Tennessee Martin, we simply can’t see this club fully focused here. The goal from Todd Lickliter was to improve the defense, but the club currently ranks 273rd in adjusted defensive efficiency. Give us the more talented senior laden Panthers. PLAY EASTERN ILLINOIS |
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12-08-20 | Kent State -2.5 v. Detroit | 80-66 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
811 Kent State at Detroit The Golden Flashes have looked really good so far, blowing out a cupcake and taking powerhouse Virginia to overtime on the road. This is the only game in a week for Kent State. This is the third game in five days for the Titans who gave Michigan State and Notre Dame close encounters. But Michigan State rarely looks good early on in a season, and the Irish are not very good this year. There is also some regression on the horizon for the Titans, who lead the nation with a 90.5 free throw percentage. Detroit is a veteran team but are majorly overrated at this juncture. PLAY KENT STATE |
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12-07-20 | Bills +1 v. 49ers | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 34 h 39 m | Show | |
485 Buffalo & San Francisco in Arizona This game is being played in Arizona because of the San Francisco lockdown. The 49ers still aren’t healthy and are getting too much credit for its win over the Rams. This coaching staff always looks good against the Rams, so it’s coming off what is an artificial high. In gambling, like in the stock market you want to buy low and sell high. Right now the 49ers are clearly priced high. The Bills have the better rating across the board, and are the healthier team. PLAY BUFFALO |
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12-06-20 | Rams -2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
LA Rams at Arizona The Rams have dominated this series, as Sean McVay has owned the Cardinals. Wins by 33, 16, 22, 27 and 7 points. The key to the Rams offensive success is keeping Goff clean, and the Cardinals don’t put a lot of pressure on the quarterback. Even less because of the Cardinals defensive injury situation. Add in the fact that Murray’s go to receiver Larry Fitzgerald is out, and we see a cheap number for Los Angeles. PLAY LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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12-05-20 | Alabama -28.5 v. LSU | 55-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
441 Alabama at LSU Major revenge game for the Tide as it lost to the eventual national champions 46-41 last year as a 6.5 point favorite. Alabama had won the past seven meetings including a 29 point victory the prior year. From a game score perspective the Tide should be a 27 point favorite, but there has never been any love between these two coaches. Alabama has the offense to score on every possession, and Saban has no qualms about adding on an additional score late. The Tigers simply don’t have the horses to keep this interesting. PLAY ALABAMA |
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12-05-20 | Rider v. Syracuse -22.5 | Top | 52-87 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
656 Rider at Syracuse The Broncs won 18 games last year but have been devastated by graduation and transfers. In fact, the team will have all five new starters today in its first game of the season. Coach Kevin Baggett came out this week and said his team just isn’t ready to compete. Syracuse beat us earlier in the week and we were very impressed. This is a team that is known for its defense and should have little problem facing a team coming out of Covid. PLAY SYRACUSE |
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12-05-20 | Texas v. Kansas State +7.5 | 69-31 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
414 Texas at Kansas State The Wildcats have cashed four straight years against the Longhorns, and are 17-4 ATS in the role of a home underdog. The is a club that hasn’t lost in the home dog role under Chris Klieman. With a 4-5 record this is a very important game for this Manhattan program. The loss last week to Iowa State looks like it will cost Tom Herman his job. He came into Austin with much promise, but the team is only 30-18 under his direction. His teams have had a losing spread record each and every year when made a favorite. Texas only has two wins this year larger than the current line, a blowout win over UTEP and an 11 point victory hosting Baylor. This Texas team isn’t good enough to win on the road by margin. PLAY KANSAS STATE |
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12-04-20 | UL-Lafayette +3 v. Appalachian State | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
327 Louisiana Lafayette at Appalachian State This is the game the Ragin’ Cajuns have had circled all year. Billy Napier has yet to beat App State in his three years in Lafayette, and this team was built to change that outcome. With two losses in the Sun Belt Championship by 7 and 11 points. That’s five straight defeats in three years in this matchup, and eight straight losses overall. But our numbers have Lafayette being the slightly better team this year. Both teams have terrific running games, which rank evenly. But we really like how the visitor has played as of late. The last four games Louisiana has produced 511, 506, 440 and 614 yards. Averaging just under 45 points per game. We make this game a toss up, and getting points is a nice bonus. PLAY LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE |
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12-04-20 | St. Peter's +14 v. Maryland | 57-90 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 54 m | Show | |
793 St Peter’s at Maryland This is an early start on the Friday schedule. After an 18 win season, we are high on the Peacocks who have a real shot at the title in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. St Peter’s has the length and depth in the front court to compete with a team in the rough and tumble Big 10. The Peacocks took a similarly talented St John’s team to the wire earlier in a 76-75 loss. They then beat La Salle and Stony Brook. This club ranks 32nd in three point accuracy, and 286th in adjusted tempo. As slowing the game down works well for double digit underdogs. Maryland enters undefeated on the season with three lopsided victories. With a road game scheduled at James Madison tomorrow, we can see this team overlooking the Peacocks. Mark Turgeon’s team is also slow paced ranking 292nd, so less scoring opportunities help our squad. PLAY ST PETER’S |
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12-03-20 | Air Force -11 v. Utah State | Top | 35-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
325 Air Force at Utah State Huge edge for the Falcons here if you look at game grades. The lowest score of the season was 83.5 at San Jose State, while Utah State is averaging 70.1 on the season. So if Air Force matches its worst game, this line would make sense. Fortunately we expect a much better outcome for the Falcons here. Obviously Air Force wants to run the football, with a 5.8 ypc on the season. Utah State allows 5.1 ypc on the year. The Aggies have really struggled getting off the field, allowing 64 more first downs than they create. That’s not what you want to see when facing a team that runs the ball down your throat. Look for this game to be competitive early, but for the visitor to wear out the Aggies as the game progresses. PLAY AIR FORCE |
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12-03-20 | Texas-San Antonio v. Oklahoma OVER 157 | Top | 66-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
765 UTSA at Oklahoma The Roadrunners have an excellent backcourt which is willing to run with the Sooners. Adjusted tempo ranking 24th, Assist Rate of 15th and a good free-throw shooting squad ranking 8th in the country. Steve Henson is a Lon Kruger former assistant. Oklahoma is tipping off its season here before stepping up in class against TCU and Xavier. With three sophomores and two freshmen on the team we can see the coaching staff letting the squad play a bit more street ball here. Roll out the ball and see what you have if you will. Should be a fun atmosphere in this one. PLAY OVER |
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12-03-20 | Connecticut -1 v. USC | Top | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
751 Connecticut & USC Major step up game for the Huskies who have faced just Central Connecticut and Hartford. That said, we really feel the elite Husky guards should dominate this contest. UConn enters this game ranked 14th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. USC is big underneath which is the strength of the team, but UConn has enough height to keep the Trojans off the boards. USC is coming off a blowout victory over BYU, an impressive win. But the Cougars simply don’t have the athleticism that the Huskies have. Off a 3-0 start and the hype from the BYU victory, USC comes into this contest a bit overrated. PLAY CONNECTICUT |