Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-18-21 | Eastern Illinois v. Murray State -16 | Top | 68-59 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
754 Eastern Illinois at Murray State The Panthers of Eastern Illinois have had a disappointing season. They rank 303rd in offensive adjusted efficiency, and 290th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They don’t get to the line ranking 331st in free throw rate, and when they get there they shoot 66.0% 295th in the country. But somehow they found a way to beat Murray State 74-68 back in early January. The Racers have won 8 of 11 games since that loss, as Murray State has turned around its season. With only SIU Edwardsville on deck after beating them by 29 on Monday, you know the Panthers have their full attention. This one should get ugly in a hurry. PLAY MURRAY STATE |
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02-18-21 | Jacksonville State +12.5 v. Belmont | 59-63 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show | |
751 Jacksonville State at Belmont The Gamecocks are 14-7 on the season and 10-5 in the Ohio Valley. They are riding a four game winning streak into this step up game against Belmont. They lost at home to the Bruins 98-91 in Mid-January. In that game the Gamecocks had no problem getting the shots it wanted going 15 of 32 from downtown and 22 of 37 from two point range. Defensively the 1.33 PPP was by far its worst defensive performance of the season. Belmont is 22-1 and have reeled off 19 straight victories. The two toughest games remaining on the schedule are next Thursday and Saturday at Eastern Kentucky and Morehead State. The two teams the Bruins just beat by 18 and 15 points in the last week. In the middle of a four game homestead we can easily see this club overlooking the opposition. Too many points not to back a solid team in Jacksonville State. PLAY JACKSONVILLE STATE |
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02-18-21 | Islanders +106 v. Penguins | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 3 m | Show | |
49 NY Islanders at Pittsburgh The Islanders have a +5 advantage in goals scored on 5x5 between these two. They also rank higher in puck control. There is a big advantage to the Islanders on the power play. With a +10 advantage compared to only +4 for the Penguins. In xGF% the Penguins are dead last in the league. On the penalty kill NY is -6 and the Penguins are -11. So the actual game stats show a huge edge for the visitor. Using xG/60 in 5x5 play the numbers show the Islanders with a 0.34 goals advantage, slightly better than the +0.22 G+-/60. Pittsburgh is -0.18 xG/60, slightly better than the actual -0.29. The Islanders are the better team and the advanced stats agree. PLAY NEW YORK ISLANDERS |
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02-17-21 | Jets v. Oilers -135 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 28 h 36 m | Show | |
46 Winnipeg at Edmonton The Jets are becoming one of the most overrated teams in the league. Despite the 9-5-1 record the Jets rank 30th in xGF% in 5x5 action. On the season they are 12th in G+-/60 at +0.19, but are -0.59 in xG/60 in 5x5 play. That’s playing 3/4 goals per game better than they deserve. The Oilers are at -0.26 G+-/60, but are actually +0.01 xG/60. Edmonton is better on the power play at +13 to +11. Lay the price with the host here. PLAY EDMONTON |
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02-17-21 | Blackhawks v. Red Wings +114 | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 9 m | Show | |
42 Chicago at Detroit The Blackhawks are 8-5-4 on the year, while the Red Wings are 4-10-3. So you can see why Chicago is a road favorite here. Luckily we don’t just pick up the sports page to make our selections. When looking at 5x5 xGF% Detroit ranks 22nd, while Chicago sits 29th. The Red Wings have actually been outscored by less than the Blackhawks in 5x5 play. In G+-/60 in 5x5 play Detroit is actually 0.28 goals better than Chicago. When looking at xGF/60 Detroit is better by 0.22 goals. Yes, the Chicago special teams have performed much better, but you have to take that with a grain of salt considering the small sample size. But still the Blackhawks own the advantage there. But is it nearly enough to make them prohibitive favorites on the road? We don’t buy it. PLAY DETROIT |
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02-17-21 | Western Carolina +8 v. Chattanooga | Top | 81-89 | Push | 0 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
681 Western Carolina at Chattanooga The Catamounts have really struggled in Southern Conference play. Posting a 2-10 record and losing to the Mocs 74-67 just two weeks ago. But despite the record Western has been very competitive this season, at least until Saturday when Furman took them to the woodshed in a 88-70 loss. They were actually fortunate in that contest, as the advanced numbers show it was the worst performance of the season for the Catamounts. What Mark Prosser’s team has done this season is bounce back from a bad performance. Chattanooga comes into this contest fat and happy. On a five game winning streak, including victories over East Tennessee State twice. Now they face the lowly Catamounts before taking on a home revenge contest against UNC Greensboro. Quite the sandwich game here for the host. Give us the points with the Catamounts to take this to the wire. PLAY WESTERN CAROLINA |
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02-17-21 | Kentucky v. Vanderbilt +4 | 82-78 | Push | 0 | 24 h 5 m | Show | |
688 Kentucky at Vanderbilt The Wildcats got a rare win on Saturday outlasting Auburn 82-80. This team has a habit of letting games slip away and they did their best to give the Tigers the victory. But survive they did and now they travel to Tennessee to face the Commodores and Volunteers. Kentucky beat Vanderbilt in early January 77-74 at home. In that game Kentucky had a 58.2 free throw rate, its highest of the season. They got all the calls in that one, can’t expect that to continue on the road. They are 2-8 SU away from home, with only one win coming in regulation. Vanderbilt has split its last four games overall, but even in defeats at the hands of Georgia and Auburn this team was very competitive. In fact, in the last four contests the Commodores have outscored the competition 302 to 278. Look for the host to continue its improved play. PLAY VANDERBILT |
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02-17-21 | The Citadel v. Wofford -8.5 | 67-81 | Win | 100 | 24 h 60 m | Show | |
690 The Citadel at Wofford The Bulldogs have dropped 8 of 11, but they did beat Wofford at home three weeks ago. In that game they dominated from distance hitting 14 of 27 while allowing just 5 of 29. That was a very rare quality defensive performance as 10 of 12 league games the opposition surpassed 1.0 PPP. In fact, the game after beating the Terriers, East Tennessee State scored 112 points with a whopping 1.51 PPP against these Bulldogs. Wofford enter this game having dropped two straight. In fact, after facing East Tennessee State, Chattanooga and Furman, this team is stepping down in class to face the Bulldogs. The Terriers haven’t lost more than two straight games all season. That continues here as Wofford wins by a margin. PLAY WOFFORD |
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02-16-21 | Devils v. Rangers -143 | 5-2 | Loss | -143 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
80 New Jersey at NY Rangers The Devils rank 3rd in the league in G+-/60 when 5x5 at +0.99. But when looking at the advanced stats in the category of xGF/60 New Jersey is +0.12. So this team has been very fortunate to have a 4-3-2 record. The Rangers rank 24th on G+-/60 in 5x5 play at -0.45. But the advanced stats show the Rangers to be a bit unlucky at 0.01 xGF/60. The Rangers have the advantage on the power play at +5, while the Devils are +2. In fact, New Jersey has just three power play goals on the season. The Rangers are -6 goals on the penalty kill, New Jersey is -11. So while the two teams are virtually equal in 5x5 xGF%, the Rangers special teams are much better. PLAY NEW YORK RANGERS |
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02-16-21 | Northern Illinois v. Akron -16.5 | 76-81 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
602 Northern Illinois at Akron The Huskies have had a long season for various reasons not limited to on court play. They were behind the proverbial eight ball before the season even started. North Illinois owns two victories on the season. The first over a Chicago State team that was so bad it gave up and quit a third of the way through the year. The other victory, a 67-65 win hosting this Akron Zips team. In that game the Huskies hit 7 of 14 from deep and held the Zips to its second best defensive PPP of the season. Akron has lost four games all season, the defeat to the Huskies was the season low point. Since that time the Zips have reeled off 8 of 9 victories. Akron is also undefeated at home this year, with only two wins coming by single digits. Akron only has Ball State on deck and they whipped the Cardinals by 32 in the prior meeting. This one could get very ugly. PLAY AKRON |
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02-15-21 | Blue Jackets v. Hurricanes -166 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
88 Columbus at Carolina The Blue Jackets with a quick one game series with the Hurricanes a week after splitting two games at home. Both games were decided by a single tally in regulation. Columbus ranks 20th in G+-/60 in 5x5 action, being outscored by 0.22 goals. In looking at xGF/60 in 5x5 the Blue Jackets sit at -0.44. So they have been slightly lucky. Carolina ranks 7th in G+-/60 at +0.59 goals, while the xGF/60 in 5x5 action is 0.66. Neither team has given up a goal when on the power play with Columbus scoring 7 times, and Carolina 10 times. Columbus is -6 goals when on a penalty kill, the Hurricanes -8 goals. Carolina returns home after traveling to Chicago, Columbus and Dallas. This is just the fourth home game of the season for the host, currently 3-0 on the year. While we don’t normally like to back a team coming home from a road trip, the exception is a holiday such as Valentines Day. It’s a time to show appreciation for your wives and family, and that’s a positive thing. PLAY CAROLINA |
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02-14-21 | Fairfield v. St. Peter's -10 | 49-66 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
820 Fairfield at St Peter’s The Stags upset St Peter’s yesterday 55-50, in one of the ugliest games you could imagine. The two teams combined for 8 of 37 from distance, and 28 of 66 from two point range. The Fairfield defense held the Peacocks to 2 of 17 from three point range, a season best. We don’t expect those numbers to repeat as the Peacocks rank 142nd in the nation from distance at 34.2%. St Peter’s is also ranked 2nd in the country defending the two, so don’t look for the visitor to duplicate the pedestrian 15 of 35 yesterday. After being held to its second lowest point total of the year, we expect a big bounce back effort from the host. Only one of these clubs has a defense, and we see why on Sunday. PLAY ST PETER’S |
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02-14-21 | South Dakota State -3 v. Oral Roberts | Top | 95-80 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
821 South Dakota State at Oral Roberts The Jackrabbits had a litter of mistakes yesterday in a 103-86 loss to Oral Roberts. The defense which had been only slightly below average simply didn’t give any effort. The 103 points allowed was a season high, besting the previous high of 84 in a win over Bradley. The 125.2 defensive PPP was also a season high, and they permitted 16 of 30 from downtown. This was also the lowest ranked team the Jackrabbits have lost to this season. Oral Roberts has a good offense, but this defense is ranked 306th in Adjusted Efficiency. This club simply does not have the defensive prowess to hold down the Jackrabbits in back to back games. South Dakota State has followed losses this season with wins by margins of 24, 3, 43 and 11 points. That includes a good Utah State team, and Big 12 participant Iowa State. PLAY SOUTH DAKOTA STATE |
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02-14-21 | Lafayette v. Loyola Maryland -2.5 | 69-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
307162 Lafayette at Loyola Maryland These two played a classic triple overtime contest yesterday, with the 2 1/2 point favorite Leopards winning by three. Can you imagine having Loyola in that contest and covering through regulation, overtime and a second overtime only to lose by the hook? Lafayette has now won back to back games after dropping three straight. But the advanced stats showed the Leopards should have lost all five contests. They held Loyola to only 4 of 24 from distance yesterday, a season best for the visitor. This will be the fourth straight time these two have tangled. Lafayette won the last two after Loyola took the opener 75-62. The Greyhounds have outscored the Leopards and only have a 1-2 mark to show for it. This club ranks 69th in the country in two point percentage, look for more pounding the ball inside from the host. PLAY LOYOLA MARYLAND |
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02-14-21 | Hofstra +2 v. James Madison | 70-74 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
795 Hofstra at James Madison The Pride dropped a 93-89 decision on this court yesterday. The Dukes shot 29 of 45 from two point range, the most two pointers Hofstra have allowed all season. It was also the worst defensive PPP on the year for this club. We expect a nice bounce back here from a team who had won 6 of 7 until that defeat on Saturday. James Madison sits fat and happy now riding a six game victory streak in the Colonial Conference. In what is expected to be a tight contest we want no part of this Dukes team ranking 280th in the country with a 67.0% free throw rate. PLAY HOFSTRA |
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02-14-21 | NJIT v. Hartford -2 | 61-75 | Win | 100 | 4 h 52 m | Show | |
307154 NJIT at Hartford The Highlanders have been alternating wins and losses for the past month. Yesterday NJIT beat Hartford 67-57 while holding them to 8 of 34 from distance. This is a good team defending the perimeter, so that’s not a complete surprise. That said, the 85.1 defensive PPP was a season best for the visitor. The Hartford Hawks are at their best pounding the ball inside. Yesterday they were solid 14 of 24 from two point range, they just settled for three pointers. That’s not the way John Gallagher wants to play, as the 24 inside shots tied a season low. While the 34 shots from distance was a season high. Look for the Hawks to get back to their preferred style of ball, by pounding the 239th ranked two point defensive Highlanders into submission. PLAY HARTFORD |
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02-13-21 | Flames v. Canucks +128 | 1-3 | Win | 128 | 28 h 3 m | Show | |
78 Vancouver at Calgary The Canucks really outplayed Calgary on Thursday despite the 3-1 defeat. Vancouver had an expected goal advantage of 3.31-1.72, which is pretty dominant. In fact, according to Money Puck’s Deserve to Win O’Meter, Vancouver should have won 75.3% of meetings with those shot attempts. The teams are virtually equal in xGF% on the power play. Keep in mind the Canucks have faced Edmonton twice, Calgary three times, Montreal five times along with Toronto three times. That’s a hell of a schedule for this time of the season. Expect the Canucks numbers to normalize starting today. PLAY VANCOUVER |
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02-13-21 | Hurricanes v. Stars +109 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 11 m | Show |
74 Carolina at Dallas Dallas has beaten up on bad teams thus far, but have struggled when stepping up in class. But we did see a light at the end of the tunnel on Thursday. Despite the 5-3 loss, Dallas dominated play. Winning expected goals 3.90-3.39. Looking at the Money Puck Deserve to Win O’Meter, the Stars should have won 72.9% of games with those shooting stats. The teams are very similar on the penalty kill, but Dallas is superior on the power play. The Stars rank 10th in xGF% as opposed to Carolina which is 16th. Dallas is +14 goals with a player advantage, the Canes just +9. Look for Dallas to gain confidence off that defeat and even up this series. PLAY DALLAS |
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02-13-21 | UCLA v. Washington +9.5 | Top | 64-61 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
744 UCLA at Washington Bruins have dropped three of four with the offense really struggling as of late. They did beat Washington in Mid-January 81-76 but only shot 20 of 50 from two point range. UCLA was just blown away at USC 66-48, then dropped a 81-73 decision to Washington State. A team the Bruins beat by 30 points just four weeks prior. No way we want to lay points with this squad at the moment. Washington is a bad basketball team but have been a competitive 3-5 SU at home. The offense has improved greatly as of late with five of nine games producing 59.6 or better EFG%. They can compete with this fading Bruins team. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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02-13-21 | South Alabama v. Troy State +2 | 58-51 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
720 South Alabama at Troy The Jaguars beat the Trojans yesterday 73-70 in a game they were actually outplayed according to the advanced stats. A low 13.8% turnover rate and 24 of 41 from 2 point range was enough to gain the victory. Now riding a five game winning streak with Appalachian State revenge on deck, it’s quite possible South Alabama overlooks the Trojans here. Troy has been playing outstanding ball as of late, despite dropping its last two games. Advanced stats show the Trojans have outplayed the opposition now in 7 of 8 games. This is a team on the rise that has been under the betting market radar. We are ahead of the curve with this squad. PLAY TROY |
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02-13-21 | Wofford v. East Tennessee State -2 | 49-71 | Win | 100 | 4 h 54 m | Show | |
678 Wofford at East Tennessee State The Terriers are really struggling right now being outplayed in the advanced statistics in four straight games. But because they were able to split those games on the scoreboard it has gone under the national radar. The Buccaneers are off two losses themselves after winning 5 of 6. In the previous meeting East Tennessee State permitted the Terriers to shoot 20 of 31 from 2 point range, the second worst mark of the season. This from a team that’s held their own all season from that defensive range. With just two losses all season at the Freedom Hall Civic Center, we look for the Buccaneers to right the ship. Pun intended. PLAY EAST TENNESSEE STATE |
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02-13-21 | Texas Southern -3.5 v. Grambling State | 75-73 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 30 m | Show | |
307125 Texas Southern at Grambling The Tigers of Texas Southern are playing really good ball as of late. Winning four straight games, while the advanced stats show they have outplayed the opposition in five straight. The difference between the two was a 78-72 home loss to these Grambling Tigers. That was the only loss at H&PE Arena this season. Grambling was good to us earlier in the week but now we look to fade this team. They are riding a four game winning streak, but it’s likely not sustainable. This team has been hot from distance, something it hasn’t shown at any other time this season. They are ranked 150th in 3 point shooting percentage on the year. We are looking to fade a team playing above expectations. PLAY TEXAS SOUTHERN |
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02-13-21 | Iowa v. Michigan State +5.5 | 88-58 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 45 m | Show | |
654 Iowa at Michigan State The Hawkeyes have dropped four of six games lately, but are coming off a nice home win over Rutgers. That was the most dominant game for Iowa since blowing out Northwestern January 17th. The problem all season for the Hawkeyes has been a non-existent defense and a head coach that pulls his best players at the slightest sign of foul trouble. The previous meeting Iowa won at home 84-78 while having its third best adjusted offensive numbers of the season. Michigan State had dropped seven of nine before back to back wins over Penn State and Nebraska. But even in that loss to Iowa on the 2nd, Michigan State hung in there despite a season worst defensive effort in PPP. The Spartans certainly aren’t near prior editions, but this is a team starting to come around. Let’s back this improving team against an overrated Hawkeyes squad. PLAY MICHIGAN STATE |
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02-13-21 | Butler v. Georgetown -1 | 63-78 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show | |
630 Butler at Georgetown The Bulldogs are coming off three highly competitive contests with the most recent being a 76-73 OT win over St John’s. The advanced stats show that Butler was lucky to come away with two victories. Defense has been a concern all season, with a 277th ranked effective field goal percentage. Georgetown has dropped 7 of 9, but deserved better results. After facing Creighton twice and Villanova, we expect a drop down in class after five straight Top 75 teams. With no other game for the Hoyas for another seven days, they are extremely motivated in this one. PLAY GEORGETOWN |
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02-13-21 | Auburn v. Kentucky -1.5 | 80-82 | Win | 100 | 19 h 20 m | Show | |
626 Auburn at Kentucky The Tigers haven’t played well of late dropping 3 of 4. The lone win came Tuesday at Vanderbilt 73-67. Four weeks ago these two met in Auburn and they came away with a 66-59 win. That was despite 5 of 24 shooting from distance. But that’s what the Wildcats are good at, ranking 72nd in the country in three point defense. After facing Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri and Alabama, we see the host getting even with the Tigers here. Not often we find value on a big name program like Kentucky, but Saturday we back the Wildcats. PLAY KENTUCKY |
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02-12-21 | Georgia Tech +4.5 v. Clemson | 72-74 | Win | 100 | 27 h 25 m | Show | |
883 Georgia Tech at Clemson The Yellow Jackets are a solid 9-7, but should have 11.9 victories based on the numbers at shotquality.com. Tech just gave Virginia all the Cavaliers could handle in a 57-49 loss, that was played much closer than the final score. Georgia Tech dominated Clemson in the earlier meeting 83-65, and nothing from that game would show the Tigers should be a sizable favorite here. Clemson started the year 9-1, but have gone 3-4 as of late. The defense ranks 15th in adjusted efficiency, but the offense ranks in the lower half of college basketball in just about every offensive category. We just don’t trust this team to score enough points to distance themselves from this Yellow Jackets team. PLAY GEORGIA TECH |
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02-12-21 | Bruins v. Rangers +149 | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 21 m | Show | |
56 Boston at NY Rangers You wouldn’t believe it by this line but the Bruins have been outscored this year in 5x5 play. Allowing 19 goals while only scoring 18. That’s not what you would expect from a team with a 9-1-2 record. On penalty kills the Bruins have been very fortunate by scoring three times short-handed while allowing five goals. They rank 15th in G+-/60 in 5x5 play, slightly higher than the 22nd ranked Rangers. New York dropped a 3-2 overtime decision on Wednesday. A game in which the Rangers had a 2.97-2.67 expected goal edge. Boston is the better team, but not by the size of this line. Give us the Rangers to even up this two game series. PLAY NEW YORK RANGERS |
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02-12-21 | Stetson -5.5 v. Kennesaw State | 74-61 | Win | 100 | 25 h 25 m | Show | |
307069 Stetson at Kennesaw State The Hatters had its three game winning streak snapped Saturday vs Lipscomb. But despite the 69-61 score Stetson was the better team. This is a club that ranks 68th in 3 point accuracy, but was a combined 22 of 57 in the two game Lipscomb series. Kennesaw State is 3-15 on the season with every victory coming against a Non-Division One program. Overall eight of the 15 defeats were by double digits. The Owls have lost to a who’s who of lower 200 opponents. Pun intended. Winless on the road, and losing by more than this spread in all but one of those games. Lay it with the much better team. PLAY STETSON |
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02-12-21 | Manhattan +5.5 v. Iona | Top | 67-85 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
845 Manhattan at Iona The Jaspers have dropped four straight, but were the better team last time out in a 71-69 overtime loss to Monmouth. Only one of the last seven losses was by more than 5 points, with three games going to overtime. This is a much better team that its record. The Gaels have won three straight, but have been nothing special other than ranking 44th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. Manhattan is actually pretty good as well ranking 89th in that category. Plenty of value here on an underdog that is quietly staying under the radar. PLAY MANHATTAN |
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02-11-21 | Oilers +130 v. Canadiens | 3-0 | Win | 130 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
27 Edmonton at Montreal Really tough spot here for the Canadiens after facing rival Toronto on this ice last night. The offensive explosion earlier in the season is starting to fade, after scoring only twice against Ottawa in their two game series. Montreal was leading the league in G+-/60 but are still showing a high positive xGF. But regression is a bitch and this team is now dealing with it. How much regression is coming? How about this statistic. Montreal has scored 7 goals this year on the penalty kill. No other team in the league has more than two. Edmonton was swept in the earlier two meetings 5-1 and 3-1. In that last contest Edmonton actually should have won based on expected goals. In fact, the win expectancy was just slightly in the Canadiens favor. Let’s look for the Oilers to take advantage of the situation and grab this important victory. PLAY EDMONTON |
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02-11-21 | Iowa State +15 v. Kansas | 64-97 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 6 m | Show | |
721 Iowa State at Kansas According to Shot Quality stats the Cyclones are a much better team that its record. With a 2-12 mark on the season, the team should have 4.8 wins based on the type of shots they are able to get. Iowa State has lost 11 of 12 but have played an extremely tough schedule. Eleven games against Top 100 opposition, seven against Top 30 squads. Off a 79-76 loss to TCU, in a game in which the advanced stats show Iowa State should have been the winner. Texas is off that huge win over Oklahoma State. Now faces Iowa State twice and Kansas State. It's a game that the Jayhawks will likely put on cruise control. That makes this line extremely high. PLAY IOWA STATE |
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02-11-21 | Utah -5 v. California | Top | 76-75 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 20 m | Show |
713 Utah at California The Utes were a team that suffered some bad luck losses early on. But have now won 4 of 6 as of late. One of those defeats came while hosting Cal in a 72-63 defeat. Since that time they outplayed Washington in a 83-79 loss, and beat Colorado and Arizona. Cal is only 5-5 straight up in this building, with four of those five victories coming against 180th and higher ranked opponents. On the season against Top 120 opposition the Bears are 2-14 SU. Look for that to continue on Thursday. PLAY UTAH |
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02-11-21 | Purdue v. Minnesota -2 | 68-71 | Win | 100 | 21 h 9 m | Show | |
738 Purdue at Minnesota The Boilermakers are 3-5 SU on the road, but only one victory came by more than two points. Purdue crushed the Golden Gophers 81-62 just 12 days ago at home. In that game Purdue made 8 of 15 from distance. But this team hasn’t had the same success shooting from three on the road. Just 49 of 170 away from Mackey Arena. Minnesota is 12-1 straight up at home this year. All victories by 5 or more points. After snapping a three game losing streak last time out against Nebraska, we feel the Golden Gophers come to play here. They avenged a loss earlier when pounding Michigan by 18. Minnesota brings that revenge mark to 2-0 here. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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02-10-21 | Bradley -1.5 v. Valparaiso | Top | 76-52 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
671 Bradley at Valparaiso We backed Valpo on Sunday as a sizable underdog against Drake. Not only did they cover wire to wire they actually ended the undefeated season for the Bulldogs. But this is another day, as we look to fade the fat and happy club off a nationally recognized upset win. While the Braves are 1-7 SU on the road this year, they have played much better than their record. A one point loss at Xavier, a one point loss at Missouri and a double overtime loss to these Crusaders. In that earlier meeting Valparaiso had a 53.5 free throw rate, which is the worst defensive FTR of the season for Bradley. The Braves on the other hand had a 21.8 FTR in that meeting. Bradley has lost 7 of 8 games recently, but our advanced stats show they should have split those eight games. We are catching an underrated team, with revenge, against a Valpo squad off its biggest win in recent memory. PLAY BRADLEY |
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02-10-21 | Wichita State v. UCF +2 | 61-60 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
654 Wichita State at Central Florida The Shockers recently knocked off the Golden Knights 93-88 in overtime. In that contest they really struggled to control UCF in the paint, as the Golden Knights shot 29 of 43 from two point range. In fact, the 62.3 effective field goal percentage was the worst defensive outing of the season for Wichita State. Central Florida has lost 8 of 10 as of late, but are coming off a confidence building win at Tulsa. The only home losses for the host came against Houston and SMU. We like the Golden Knights to shock Wichita State. PLAY CENTRAL FLORIDA |
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02-10-21 | Chattanooga +4.5 v. Wofford | 78-66 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
667 Chattanooga at Wofford I’m sure the Mocs have had this game circled after being beaten at home by Wofford in the earlier meeting. In that game they shot just 4 of 21 from distance, and allowed a 40.5 offensive rebounding percentage to the Terriers. Keep in mind Chattanooga rank 78th in the country in three point percentage, and 77th keeping the opposition off the glass. Wofford is struggling a bit as of late. Losing to VMI in overtime on this court, and squeaking out a 75-67 win at Furman. While the final margin was seven points, the Terriers were lucky to come away with a win. They held the Paladins to a season second best 9.4 free throw rate. PLAY CHATTANOOGA |
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02-09-21 | Jets v. Flames -128 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
22 Winnipeg at Calgary The Jets have a slightly positive 5x5 G+-/60 at 0.09, but looking at expected goals the deficit is more pronounced at -0.34. The Jets are 7-3-1 on the season but have only outscored the opposition in 5x5 23 to 21. The Flames are 5-5-1 on the year but have outscored the opposition 19 to 16 in 5x5 play. The Flames have a G+-/60 on 5x5 of 0.33. It holds up in expected goals at 0.27. We will back the host tonight in what is a very fair number. PLAY CALGARY |
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02-09-21 | Syracuse v. NC State -1 | 77-68 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 4 m | Show | |
612 Syracuse at NC State Orange are really struggling as of late and are coming off its worst effort of the season. They have dropped 5 of its last 9 games. One of those victories was just ten days ago in a 76-73 home victory over these Wolfpack. NC State has had troubles of their own as of late dropping 6 of 8. But they deserved a better outcome at Syracuse, as advanced stats show they should have pulled out that victory. After a satisfying win at Boston College we expect State to get its revenge in this one. PLAY NC STATE |
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02-09-21 | Notre Dame +8 v. Duke | 93-89 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
607 Notre Dame at Duke Big revenge game for the Irish after losing at home 75-65 in Mid-December. This club is starting to heat up as of late with wins in 4 of 6. But when looking at the advanced stats Notre Dame should have gone 5-1 in those contests. They are coming off an 82-80 loss at Georgia Tech, a game in which the Yellow Jackets shot 7 of 14 from distance and 28 of 46 from two point range. That’s the second best offensive effective field goal percentage of the season for Georgia Tech. Duke for some reason has been taking money today. This is still a team that has lost 5 of 7 overall, with just one win in its last seven games by more than this spread. It’s also a likely letdown spot after playing arch rival North Carolina on Saturday. PLAY NOTRE DAME |
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02-08-21 | Oklahoma State +6.5 v. Kansas | Top | 66-78 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
863 Oklahoma State at Kansas Cowboys off by far its worst offensive PPP of the season at 0.83. Made just 19 of 55 two pointers, keep in mind this is a Top 100 team from that range. Kansas has lost 5 of 7 as of late. Only wins were against TCU and Kansas State. Jayhawks are 4-7 vs Top 50 opposition, 4 of those wins were by 4 points or less. This line is simply too high to back the host. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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02-07-21 | Chiefs v. Bucs OVER 56 | 9-31 | Loss | -103 | 51 h 18 m | Show | |
101 Kansas City at Tampa Bay Super Bowls are tough to handicap with the two weeks between games and all the hoopla. But we will do our best to try to provide youth a winner. In our opinion the side outcome is a tossup. Kansas City has the better offense, Tampa Bay the better defense. The only concern we have with the Chiefs is the weak offensive line. Because of that and the Buccaneers strong defensive run stoppage, we think we have some value in the total. Kansas City has an elite quarterback and terrific receivers. Andy Reid is one of the top coaches in the league, and he’s been money in the bank with extra time to prepare. Therefore we can expect the Chiefs to virtually abandon the running attack. That means short quick throws from the pocket for Kansas City. It’s the best way to take advantage of this Buccaneers defense. In turn, look for Tampa Bay to try to match the Chiefs on the scoreboard by doing much of the same. Unlike a regular season game where you may let up on a team in case you play them later, the pressure will be constant from the team in the lead. We are well aware that 6 of the 7 Super Bowl games with totals in the 50’s have gone under. But that only gives us additional value here. PLAY OVER L Bell under rushing yards Mahomes pass attempts over Second half more points than first No missed pat |
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02-07-21 | Indiana State v. Northern Iowa -2 | 67-70 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
818 Indiana State at Northern Iowa The Sycamores are riding high winning seven straight before this quick rematch with Northern Iowa. But Indiana State relies too much on four players who play at least 68% of the available minutes. We realize these are young college kids, but after winning seven straight games how invested will they be for this contest. Northern Iowa is having a down season by anyones standards. Posting a 5-12 record on the season and 3-8 in conference action. The one thing this club does very well is keep the opposition off the offensive glass, ranking 4th in the country in that regard. UNI is also a very deep team with six players getting half or more available minutes each game. Look for that depth to be the difference here. PLAY NORTHERN IOWA |
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02-07-21 | Boise State -5 v. Nevada | 62-73 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
821 Boise State at Nevada The Broncos were upset yesterday in Reno 74-72. That’s just the third loss of the season for Boise State. This club is really tough on the boards ranking 102nd in offensive rebounding percentage and 5th keeping the opposition off the glass. In turn they are 34th in the country in two point shooting percentage. That wasn’t the case yesterday as Boise only made 15 of 30 from short distance, while the Wolf Pack cashed in on 22 of 35 from two point range. That all comes down to lack of effort and weak physicality, two things we believe the Broncos bring today. Nevada is a good team, but not the type of squad that is going to sweep a superior team on back to back nights. PLAY BOISE STATE |
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02-07-21 | Drake v. Valparaiso +13 | 57-74 | Win | 100 | 3 h 6 m | Show | |
808 Drake at Valparaiso The Bulldogs continued its undefeated season yesterday but it’s getting harder and harder for this team to cover the number. In four of its last five games Drake only won by single digits. It hasn’t had a good shooting game from distance since January 4th against Southern Illinois. Valpo started the season going 3-9, but have played much better ball as of late. It’s 6-3-3 lately with only one loss coming by more than seven points. Our numbers show that with season average shooting the Crusaders would have won 4 of those 6 games. They play this very tight once again. PLAY VALPARAISO |
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02-07-21 | Towson +4 v. College of Charleston | Top | 53-66 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 11 m | Show |
801 Towson at College of Charleston The Towson Tigers just lost to this team 90-88 in double overtime yesterday. Now seek to even the score at TD Arena. Towson is a team that is terrific on the offensive glass, ranking 14th in the nation in that regard. But the Cougars held their own in that category yesterday. Charleston isn’t anything special on this court with a 5-5 straight up mark. Two of those contests went to overtime. Look for Towson to even up the score here as they have shown a propensity to play better in these back to back contests. PLAY TOWSON |
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02-07-21 | Iowa -2.5 v. Indiana | 65-67 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 49 m | Show | |
797 Iowa at Indiana The Hawkeyes are in a bit of a slump right now losing 3 of 4 heading into this revenge game against Indiana. Iowa dropped an 81-69 decision on the 21st of January, a game that started this down trend. In that game they had an effective field goal percentage of 42.1, the lowest mark of the season. Iowa also shot 5 of 23 from downtown, its worst shooting from distance game. Keep in mind the Hawkeyes rank 20th in the nation in three point percentage. Indiana had a 66.0 free throw rate, which was the worst of the year for Iowa, and the best for the Hoosiers. The Hoosiers also shot a solid 8 of 17 from distance, the second best long range shooting game of the season for the Hoosiers. Iowa has struggled defensively as of late, but on the season they rank middle of the pack in defensive adjusted efficiency. Important game for the visitor here. PLAY IOWA |
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02-06-21 | Grambling State +6.5 v. Southern | Top | 72-69 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
307029 Grambling at Southern The Tigers have won 4 of 6 and two straight heading into this Southern rematch. The Jaguars won earlier on the road 61-55. That game was decided from long distance as Grambling shot just 3 of 17 while Southern cashed in on 8 of 18. Those numbers aren’t even close to how these two have performed from 3 point range on the season. Southern enters this contest off just its second road victory of the year, a 76-59 win at Alcorn State. The Jaguars held the Braves to a season low PPP of 76.4. Alcorn made just 1 of 13 from distance in that contest. Look for a bit of revenge here from Grambling who really should have had better success in the previous meeting. PLAY GRAMBLING |
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02-06-21 | Nicholls State +2.5 v. Sam Houston State | Top | 71-78 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
307031 Nicholls State at Sam Houston State The Colonels are running hot as of late winning eight straight games. Its last loss coming to this same Sam Houston State team. In that meeting the Bearkats hit 12 of 24 from distance, tying the worst 3 point defensive game of the season for Nicholls State. Sam Houston also enters this contest with a hot hand, with 10 of 11 victories. The lone loss was last time out at Stephen F Austin. While the Bearkats are playing on an undefeated home court, the price is a bit high playing into a hot avenging underdog. Should be a great competitive game but the Colonels get the victory. PLAY NICHOLLS STATE |
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02-06-21 | Creighton -4.5 v. Marquette | 71-68 | Loss | -117 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
701 Creighton at Marquette The Bluejays enter this contest off an embarrassing home loss to Georgetown. Creighton permitted 10 of 21 shooting from downtown against the Hoyas. That was their second worst performance in that regard this season. This is also a revenge game as it lost to Marquette at home 89-84 in Mid-December. In that contest the Golden Eagles had a PPP on 132.6, by far the worst defensive performance for the Bluejays this season. To put it in perspective, the second worst PPP was 117.2. Marquette shot 12 of 21 from downtown in that contest, once again the worst defensive mark of the season for Creighton. Marquette has dropped 3 of 4 lately with the only win coming by 3 hosting Butler in its last game. The Golden Eagles have only won two games all season on this court against Top 100 opposition. Take the road favorite here. PLAY CREIGHTON |
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02-06-21 | Charlotte -4.5 v. Middle Tennessee | Top | 60-73 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
703 Charlotte at Middle Tennessee State These two played a really good game yesterday with the Blue Raiders coming out on top 66-65. That broke a three game winning streak for the 49ers. But upon closer inspection did the winning team deserve it? Charlotte simply wasn’t aggressive, with just a 16.7% in free throw rate. That is by far the worst performance of the season in that regard. It also didn’t help to shoot 3 of 12 from distance. Charlotte is by far the better team and we really don’t like the way Middle Tennessee State performs. Love to get the better squad off an embarrassing loss, especially in revenge. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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02-06-21 | Montana v. Portland State +3 | 56-61 | Win | 100 | 21 h 7 m | Show | |
668 Montana at Portland State The Grizzlies have reeled off 5 of 7 victories as of late, including an overtime victory over Portland State on Thursday. That’s three overtimes Montana has played in its last two games. The Grizzlies held the Vikings to 6 of 29 from distance in that contest. When backing Montana at this point of the season heavy negative regression is in store. This team ranks 8th in college hoops in free throw percentage at 79.3. But the real regression comes from the opposition, as the Grizzlies opponents are shooting just 61.1% from the foul stripe, the worst in all of basketball. Obviously since there is no defense involved in free throw shooting Montana has been extremely lucky. This is also the fourth straight road game for this club. Portland State has won 2 of 3 as of late with the only loss in overtime to these Grizzlies. This is also the fifth straight home game for the Vikings. Give us the avenging host in this one. PLAY PORTLAND STATE |
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02-06-21 | Louisiana Tech v. North Texas -4 | 55-57 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
638 Louisiana Tech at North Texas Quick revenge spot for the Mean Green after dropping a 68-63 contest at home yesterday to Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs dominated inside yesterday hitting 23 of 36 from two point range, while allowing only 17 of 29. That’s not what was expected as North Texas on the season ranks 32nd offensively from that distance and 54th defensively from two point range. We look for the host to bounce back in this one. PLAY NORTH TEXAS |
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02-06-21 | Canadiens -247 v. Senators | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 14 m | Show | |
33 Montreal at Ottawa Is this play obvious? Of course. But that doesn’t mean it doesn’t have value. Montreal did everything in that last matchup except win. This club still ranks #1 in the league in G+-/60. It has an xGF/60 of 1.04. It’s still an elite team after losing one game. Ottawa still ranks dead last in G+-/60 at -1.81. Its xGF/60 is -0.40. The Senators are better than their record, but still lacking in talent compared to the Canadiens. PLAY MONTREAL |
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02-05-21 | Predators v. Panthers -126 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
26 Nashville at Florida The Panthers dominated play yesterday and let a win slip through their fingers. We expect a similar game with different results here. In 5x5 play this season the Preds are being outscored by 0.07 G/60, the expected goal differential is -0.05. Florida has been the much better team at +0.36 G/60, and an even better 0.42 in xG/60 in 5x5 play. The Panthers rank 9th in xGF% in 5x5 while the Preds sit 17th. Better team with motivation puts us squarely on the home squad. PLAY FLORIDA |
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02-05-21 | Louisiana-Monroe +9 v. Texas-Arlington | Top | 56-63 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
857 UL Monroe at UT Arlington 4-13 Monroe rides an eight game losing streak into this matchup with Arlington. They already dropped two home meetings 77-64 and 75-74. But we really liked the way the defense played in that last meeting, holding the Mavericks to 3 of 18 from downtown and 12 of 34 from two point range. That was the best defensive ppp of the season for the Warhawks. Arlington could be a bit fat and happy here after winning two of three lately, along with that earlier sweep. They are only 2-3 straight up at the College Park Center this year vs division one competition. Just too many points to lay for a team ranked 309th in offensive effective field goal percentage. PLAY UL MONROE |
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02-05-21 | Akron v. Kent State -2 | Top | 72-61 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
872 Akron at Kent State We faded the Zips on Tuesday with success against Toledo. We do so again here with its cross town rival Kent State. The last time these two tangled was New Years Day when the Zips pulled out a 66-62 home victory. But a closer look at the stats show Akron held the Golden Flashes to 5 of 23 from downtown. The Zips had its second lowest offensive ppp in that contest and still won the game. That likely won’t hold up in the rematch on Friday. Kent has been riding hot as of late winning 7 of 8. The only loss coming at Toledo by two points. The only losses in regulation for Kent State this season have come against Toledo twice and these Zips. Look for Kent State to even this series with a solid victory. PLAY KENT STATE |
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02-05-21 | Wagner v. St Francis NY -2.5 | 84-81 | Loss | -101 | 3 h 4 m | Show | |
307364 Wagner at St Francis NY The Seahawks beat the Terriers 74-67 last night, but were very fortunate to do so. They held St Francis to an offensive ppp of 98.0, the second best defensive effort of the season for the visitor. That’s totally out of character for Wagner as they rank 290th in adjusted defensive efficiency on the season. The Seahawks had its second highest offensive rebounding percentage of the season, and by far its top free throw rate of the campaign. The 26 of 45 shooting from 2 point range was also a season high. St Francis NY is now off back to back losses for only the second time this season. They followed the last losing streak with a 19 point rout. After three straight bad performances from distance we look for the Terriers to have better success on Friday. PLAY ST FRANCIS NY |
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02-04-21 | Flames -115 v. Jets | 1-4 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
15 Calgary at Winnipeg The Flames were a small favorite on Monday and came up short against the Jets 2-1. But Calgary actually outplayed Winnipeg in that contest when looking at the advanced numbers. When looking at G/60 on the season with 5x5 action Calgary is +0.25, while the Jets are -0.13. In xG/60 in 5x5 play Calgary should have a +0.31 advantage, while Winnipeg has a .40 deficit. The Flames are just 4-4-1 on the season but are playing better than the 6-3-1 Jets. Look for Calgary to bounce back here with a solid victory. PLAY CALGARY |
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02-04-21 | Capitals v. Rangers -107 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
10 Washington at NY Rangers Major regression coming for the Capitals who in our numbers are the most overrated team in the league. In 5x5 per 60 minutes Washington is outscoring the opposition by 0.87 goals. Which is the fifth best in the league. But when you look at xGF/GA per 60 the Capitals should have been outscored 2.10-1.78. They have been extremely fortunate. The Rangers on the other hand played much better last game without DiAngelo on the team. Many times cutting a player is actually a positive, and in the one game sample size New York looked much more lively. NY in G+-/60 on 5x5 is being outscored by 0.45 goals, but when looking at expected goals that number reduces to -0.02. So we have a team that is majorly overrated against a team that is better than its record would show. Give is the Rangers at this bargain price. PLAY NEW YORK RANGERS |
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02-04-21 | Tennessee State +2.5 v. SIU-Edwardsville | 60-68 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 44 m | Show | |
725 Tennessee State at SIU Edwardsville The Tigers come in with a very disappointing 3-12 record. But they slightly outplayed SIU in the earlier 67-65 loss at home. They had the higher EFG% in that contest 47.1 to 42.4. SIU Edwardsville has the better record at 6-8, but they haven’t won a home game all season. They are 0-3 in the Vadalbene Center. Losing all three games against teams we rate in the 300’s. There is no way we can trust this team laying points at home. When two bad teams face each other points are the way to go. Give us the Tigers to pounce on this victory. PLAY TENNESSEE STATE |
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02-03-21 | Wolves v. Spurs -8 | 108-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
574 Minnesota at San Antonio The Timberwolves haven’t won a road game since the second game of the season. They almost broke that streak last time out in Cleveland in a 100-98 loss. In fact, they may be feeling pretty good about themselves after outscored the Cavs 207-204 in that home and home series. But we’re not buying it as Minnesota ranks dead last in the league defensively the past 14 days. This is also a team that is 30th, dead last, on the year offensively. San Antonio is in the final game of a five game home stand. They are off back to back blowout losses to the Memphis Grizzlies, one of the hottest teams in the league. This is a big step down in talent tonight for the Spurs. San Antonio is in a good scheduling spot as well, having had yesterday off and don’t play against until the 6th at Houston. PLAY SAN ANTONIO |
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02-03-21 | Bruins -129 v. Flyers | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
75 Boston at Philadelphia The matchup we have been waiting for. Our numbers have the Bruins as a major contender this season, while we feel the Flyers are the most overrated team in the league. In 5x5 action the Flyers have outscored the opposition 2.85-2.60 in GF/GA per 60 minutes. But in xGF/GA per 60 minutes they should have been outscored 2.02-2.38. This is a lucky team thus far that doesn’t deserve their 7-2-1 record. Boston is 6-1-2 and owns a 1.96-1.97 deficit in GF/GA per 60 in 5x5 action. But deserves a whopping 2.11-1.56 advantage in that category. In all categories Boston should be 2.72-2.04 and Philadelphia 2.61-2.69. The Bruins are the much better team and the early betting backs that up. The public will likely be on a home dog with a gaudy record, we will fade the public in this one. PLAY BOSTON |
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02-03-21 | Wizards v. Heat UNDER 229 | 103-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
566 Washington at Miami Both teams are coming off embarrassing defensive performances. In fact, Washington has permitted 146 and 132 the past two games. Each team talked about doing a much better job on the defensive end entering tonight. The Heat rank 25th offensively on the season, but even worse the past two weeks at 29th. Defensively Miami is 19th defensively, but 15th the past two weeks. Washington is 12th offensively on the season, but just 24th the past 14 days. The defense is 28th overall and 29th as of late. With both teams desperate for a win we look for the increased defensive presence to be the key. PLAY UNDER |
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02-03-21 | Seton Hall v. Providence | Top | 60-43 | Win | 100 | 24 h 39 m | Show |
681 Seton Hall at Providence The Pirates are riding a season long three game losing streak heading into Providence. It’s also a team looking to avenge an earlier 80-77 overtime defeat. In that game the Friars shot 9 of 18 from deep, that was the second best shooting from downtown on the season. That from a team who ranks 213th in the country from 3 point range. Providence has seven victories on the season vs Top 100 competition. Three of those wins came in overtime. According to the Shot Quality website the Friars have 9 wins but only deserve 7.5 based on their shot selection. Seton Hall actually is a bit underrated, having won 9 but deserve 9.3 victories. With the Pirates desperate for a win we look for Seton Hall to have success on Wednesday. PLAY SETON HALL |
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02-02-21 | Coyotes +151 v. Blues | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
61 Arizona at St Louis Nice price on the Coyotes who rank 12th in xGF% on the season. They have played better than the 3-4-1 record. St Louis ranks 26th in xGF% but have been much more fortunate. When looking at xGF/xGA/60 the Coyotes are -0.13 while the Blues sit at -0.40. This line should be more towards the pick ‘em price. PLAY ARIZONA |
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02-02-21 | Morgan State v. Coppin State +3 | Top | 95-82 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
307306 Morgan State at Coppin State This is the fourth meeting of the season between these two as the Bears have taken 3 of 4 including a 79-76 win on Saturday. It’s also the second of four straight on the road for Morgan State. Coppin State played a much tougher non-conference schedule, with games against Duke, Georgetown and Virginia Tech. Since getting into league action the Eagles have won 5 of 7, the two losses coming against the Bears. We expect Juan Dixon and company to take out some frustration on Tuesday. PLAY COPPIN STATE |
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02-02-21 | Akron v. Toledo -5.5 | 76-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
618 Akron at Toledo Zips were able to defeat the Rockets in overtime 95-94 in the previous meeting. That was on the heels of back to back losses to Eastern Michigan and Northern Illinois. That victory turned around the season for Akron who has since run off six straight victories. The Zips are just 2-3 SU away from The JAR this season. Akron has their second highest offensive ppp in that previous contest. While allowing a season high 127.9 defensive ppp to the Rockets. Toledo is undefeated at John F Savage Arena, and would have had a 13 game winning streak if not for that previous loss. Look for Toledo to get even with the Zips on Tuesday. PLAY TOLEDO |
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02-02-21 | West Virginia v. Iowa State +11.5 | 76-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
626 West Virginia at Iowa State The Mountaineers won the first meeting 70-65, but the game was played virtually evenly. The Cyclones dominated inside with a 19 of 32 mark on two pointers. West Virginia has struggled in the last eight overall games, going 4-4 with only two wins being by more than three points. Iowa State isn’t a very good team this year, dropping 9 of 11. But they have played a very tough slate with six games against Top 40 opposition. Off five straight losses the Cyclones will be playing with their hair on fire here. Just too many points for West Virginia to lay on the road. PLAY IOWA STATE |
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02-02-21 | Eastern Kentucky v. Jacksonville State -1.5 | Top | 86-82 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
634 Eastern Kentucky at Jacksonville State The Colonels knocked off Jacksonville State in early January 69-66 in Overtime. Both teams were horrendous from distance combining for 9 of 54. Now on an 11-1 run heading into the rematch, the visitor looks to be a bit fat and happy. The Gamecocks are coming in off an embarrassing 85-66 home loss to Morehead State. That makes two straight defeats at the Pete Mathews Coliseum, after Belmont beat them 98-91 a little over two weeks ago. Those are the only two home losses on the season. With lowly Tennessee Martin on deck, we see the Gamecocks strutting after this one. PLAY JACKSONVILLE STATE |
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02-02-21 | Maryland-Baltimore County -3 v. NJIT | 75-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
307307 MD Baltimore County at NJIT Early start on the added board slate. The Retrievers lost to the Highlanders last night, shooting a miserable 11 of 31 from two point range. On the season they are at 50.3% from that range. Obviously it was the worst shooting of the season from inside. NJIT on the other hand had their best shooting game from two point range all season. That’s not to be expected again as they only hit 44.5% from that range all season. This team ranks 310th in the nation from that range. Look for the better team to be more physical here as the Retrievers fetch and early afternoon winner. PLAY MD BALTIMORE COUNTY |
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02-01-21 | Bruins -137 v. Capitals | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
43 Boston at Washington Season long xGF% when 5x5 is clearly in the favor of the Bruins, ranking 4th compared to the Senators 25th. That is in stark contrast to the results of 5x5 play. Boston has been outscored 12 to 10 while the Senators own a 24 to 15 advantage. Even in the previous meeting the Bruins had an xGF advantage of 4.19 to 1.79 and still found a way to drop a 4-3 game. That was the first game back for some key Washington players, so you can understand the emotional lift. But Boston is the better team, and we expect some revenge in this one. PLAY BOSTON |
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02-01-21 | Predators +154 v. Lightning | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 41 m | Show | |
45 Nashville at Tampa Bay In 5x5 action Nashville ranks 13th while the Lightning come in ranking 9th. The Predators have outscored the opposition 12 to 10, while Tampa owns a 13 to 6 5x5 advantage. Nashville played the Lightning tough on Saturday in a 4 to 3 loss. But these two clubs were very even in that contest with Tampa only owning a 2.44 to 2.42 xGF advantage. Tampa is the better team, but Nashville at this price is worthy of a wager. PLAY NASHVILLE |
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02-01-21 | Penguins v. Rangers -101 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 39 m | Show | |
48 Pittsburgh at NY Rangers The Penguins have already beaten the Rangers three times this year. Each game by one score with two going extra time. When looking at the xGF & xGA in those contests Pittsburgh should have lost the first meeting by 0.17 goals, won the second by 0.21 goals and won the third by just 0.09 goals. So after three games that were coin flips the Penguins sit a perfect 3-0. That kind of luck doesn’t last long in this league. In the last seven Rangers games they have outscored the opposition 22-19, yet won just two of those contests. Pittsburgh has been outscored on the season 34-27 yet have a 5-3-1 record. The Rangers finally get in the win column on Monday. PLAY NY RANGERS |
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01-31-21 | UNLV v. Nevada -2.5 | Top | 60-89 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
838 UNLV at Nevada The Rebels have played much better ball as of late winning 5 of 6 heading into this in-state rivalry. But keep in mind 4 of the 5 wins were against St Katherine, Benedictine Mesa and New Mexico twice. The only good team they have beaten all year was a 59-56 win over Utah State, who beat them by 9 in the quick rematch. The Rebels have won just one game on the road all year, at a very weak Kansas State. Nevada is off back to back losses at Wyoming, a tough home court. The only other defeats on the season were to San Francisco, Grand Canyon and San Diego State twice. This is a team that gets to the foul line extremely well and when its there it converts. UNLV on the other hand ranks 342nd in offensive free throw rate. Look for the host to take advantage of its longest home stand of the season, and get a solid victory against the Rebels. PLAY NEVADA |
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01-31-21 | Islanders +108 v. Flyers | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
31 NY Islanders at Philadelphia The Philadelphia Flyers are the most overrated team in the league based on its 6-2-1 record. Sure this team was highly thought of coming into the season, but the scoreboard simply doesn’t indicate how bad the ice numbers are for this squad. The Flyers rank 28th in xGF% on 5x5 at 43.93. Just ahead of the Sharks, Kings and Ducks. The Islanders rank 16th in that category. But in reality New Jersey has been outscored 5x5 14 to 11, while the Flyers are up 20 to 19. After losing in a shootout yesterday, we expect the 3-4-1 Islanders to play with major motivation here. Line is just too high to pass up. PLAY NY ISLANDERS |
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01-31-21 | Blue Jackets v. Blackhawks +127 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 127 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
34 Columbus at Chicago By our numbers the Blue Jackets are one of the most overrated teams in the league. In 5x5 action they have produced a xGF% of 45.21 which ranks 27th, yet they have outscored the opposition 17 to 16. Chicago on the other hand have an xGF% of 48.21 but have been outscored 18 to 11. In Friday’s matchup Columbus won 2-1 but were completely dominated. Chicago had a whopping 69.86 xGF% and should have won the game 3.41 to 1.47 according to Evolving Hockey. Now with a day off we expect a better outcome for the Blackhawks. PLAY CHICAGO |
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01-31-21 | Devils +141 v. Sabres | 5-3 | Win | 141 | 2 h 29 m | Show | |
25 New Jersey at Buffalo Early starting game for Sunday. The Sabres pulled out a 4-3 shootout victory over the Devils yesterday. But according to Evolving Hockey they were fortunate to do so. The Devils held an xGF% edge in that contest of 55.15. They should have won based on the way the game was played 2.85-2.32. On the season in 5x5 action Buffalo has been outscored 18 to 14, while the Devils are up 14 to 10. If New Jersey can do a better job of staying out of the penalty box, they have a solid shot of gaining revenge here. We’ve been higher on the Sabres this year than just about everyone, but the value is on the dog here. PLAY NEW JERSEY |
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01-30-21 | Flames +112 v. Canadiens | 2-0 | Win | 112 | 27 h 41 m | Show | |
11 Calgary at Montreal Is it possible that the Canadiens are overrated right now? According to the advanced stats that’s exactly what is happening. Montreal in 5x5 action is averaging 3.84 goals per 60 minutes, allowing 1.82 goals per 60 minutes. That’s a whopping 2.02 goals advantage per game. But in comparison to expected goals per contest, Montreal should average 2.49 and allow 1.65. Still very good, but nowhere near the success they have had in this short season. The Flames rank 14th in 5x5 xGF%, yet have been outscored on the season. But they are expected to score 2.30 goals per game and allow just 2.08. While the Canadiens have gotten extremely lucky, the Flames have played better than their record. Value on the dog here. PLAY CALGARY |
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01-30-21 | Penguins v. Rangers -105 | 5-4 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 41 m | Show | |
18 Pittsburgh at NY Rangers Pittsburgh has a 4-3-1 record but has been outscored 30 to 22 on the season. When looking at G+-/60 the Penguins rank 29th, just ahead of Detroit and Ottawa. When looking at xGF & xGA per 60 minutes Pittsburgh should be scoring 2.37 goals a game while allowing 2.52. This is a fringe playoff team at best, but are being priced too high in the betting markets. The Rangers currently have a G+-/60 of -0.11, but are expected to outscore the opposition 2.84 to 2.45 via xGF%. So despite the 2-4-1 record this team has actually played better than the Penguins. The Rangers lost the two previous matchups on the road 4-3 on a shootout and 3-2. They avenge those losses here. PLAY NY RANGERS |
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01-30-21 | Maple Leafs v. Oilers +109 | 3-4 | Win | 109 | 27 h 40 m | Show | |
14 Toronto at Edmonton The Maple Leafs are considered along with Montreal to be the best team in this division. But despite the 7-2-0 record, this team is only outscoring the opposition 5x5 16 to 14. It ranks 22nd in xGF%, Edmonton ranks 13th yet has been outscored 5x5 22 to 15. Toronto overall has outscored the opposition 30 to 25, but has a xGF/60 of 2.31 while allowing 2.40. Toronto has been a very fortunate squad. Edmonton ranks 8th overall in xGF% but have been outscored 33 to 26. In xGF/60 in 5x5 action they should be scoring 2.70 goals per game while allowing 2.62. This team is better than its 3-6-0 record. The Oilers played well in the last matchup but failed to get the victory. They remedy that on Saturday. PLAY EDMONTON |
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01-30-21 | Virginia -4.5 v. Virginia Tech | 51-65 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
719 Virginia at Virginia Tech The first meeting of the season between these two was postponed. Now they meet in Blacksburg where Evan Miya rates this home court 244th in the season. The Hokies have a lofty 12-3 record but are only 1-2 vs Top 50 opposition. The losses coming to Penn State by 20 and Syracuse by 18. Virginia has won 10 of 11 with the lone loss coming to Gonzaga. This is a team that started slow, being shocked in its second game vs San Francisco. We’ve since learned the Dons are a Top 100 team. This is a strong matchup for the visitor, as what the Hokies do best offensively, the Cavaliers do better defensively. The number fits right into what we were looking for. PLAY VIRGINIA |
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01-30-21 | Utah +8.5 v. Colorado | 77-74 | Win | 100 | 1 h 27 m | Show | |
645 Utah at Colorado Early start in the PAC 12 should help provide value to the underdog. Utah comes in with a 6-7 record on the season, but Bart Torvik shows that bad luck has been consistent for the Utes. His numbers show that Utah was only outplayed in three games this season. So you would expect some positive regression for this team we have much better than their record. Colorado steps up in class here after playing Washington State and Washington. Keep in mind despite the strong record the Buffaloes are only 4-3 vs Top 100 opposition. Too many points to lay here in this afternoon affair. PLAY UTAH |
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01-29-21 | Cavs -1 v. Knicks | Top | 81-102 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
573 Cleveland at New York Third meeting between these two this year with each team grabbing a victory. In the first meeting the Knicks shot lights out from distance in a 95-86 victory. What made that so surprising was that the vast majority of those threes were defended very well. In the second meeting New York wasn’t nearly as lucky and Cleveland won 106-103. Now almost fully healthy we look for Cleveland to once again get the better of the Knicks. New York returns home for the first time after playing four games on the west coast in six days. We all know how hard it is the first time back in town from a family situation. The Knicks are 23rd in offensive turnover percentage which can really be a problem against the 1st ranked turnover defense of the Cavaliers. Cleveland’s offensive success is predicated on turnovers as this team also has great success with deflections. The guard combo for the visitor has great speed which leads to easy baskets for the Cavs. We expect that to happen often here. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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01-29-21 | Monmouth v. Niagara +4 | 77-67 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 1 m | Show | |
832 Monmouth at Niagara Hawks are playing very well as of late winning four straight games. But keep in mind when looking at its 7-4 record, this team has played 9 of those 11 games at home. Monmouth hasn’t traveled since January 4th at Siena for two games. They lost to the Saints in both those games. So we have a winless on the road Hawks team laying points on the road. This is a team that ranks 304th in the country in letting opponents get to the line. That’s especially concerning when the vast majority of games were played in friendly confines of the OceanFirst Bank Center. Yes, this is a step up game for the Purple Eagles after facing Qunnipiac, Manhattan and Rider. But this is just the fifth home game of the season for Greg Paulus’ crew. They are 3-1 straight up at home this year. The early line move towards the Hawks is overblown, give us the Saints as a home underdog. PLAY NIAGARA |
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01-28-21 | Ducks v. Coyotes -135 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
52 Anaheim at Arizona The Ducks took care of the Coyotes a couple days ago in a low scoring slugfest. But the host is the better team by the eye test and by our numbers. Anaheim ranks 30th in xGF% and have been outscored just 14 to 12. They have been very lucky in that regard. Arizona is 20th ranked in xGF%. They have also been outscored by 2, 19 to 17. Neither team fares well on the power play with the Ducks ranking dead last and the Coyotes not much higher at 28th in xGF%. Look for another low scoring contest with the host evening the series. PLAY ARIZONA |
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01-28-21 | Red Wings +190 v. Stars | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
49 Detroit at Dallas About time for some Dallas Stars regression. They have outscored the opposition 12 to 3 yet rank dead last in xGF%. This team has feasted on the power play scoring 9 goals without allowing any. Its xGF% on power plays is 100.0%, easily ranking at #1 in the NHL. Detroit is in the middle of the pack in xGF% but have been outscored 22 to 13. The Red Wings are the underdog for a reason, but this line is a bit crazy considering the Dallas luck factor. PLAY DETROIT |
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01-28-21 | Kings v. Wild -160 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
48 Las Angeles at Minnesota Kings are 3-2-2 despite ranking dead last in 5x5 xGF% at 42.28. They have been outscored 5x5 13-12 on the season. Minnesota on the other hand ranks 2nd1/28/2021 in 5x5 xGF% at 58.61. They have been outscored 12-10 on the season in 5x5 action. It’s been the power play in which the Kings have dominated with a 6-0 GF/GA. Minnesota has struggled thus far in that category with a 2-0 GF/GA mark. Our numbers in all strengths show the Wild ranking 5th with LA coming in at 19th. Look for a quick revenge winner with the Wild. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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01-27-21 | Thunder v. Suns -7 | Top | 102-97 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
552 Oklahoma City at Phoenix Thunder are playing its third game in for days all in different cities. They just broke a three game losing streak in Portland last night. This is the final game of a five game trip, and may be satisfied after that victory last night. Phoenix hasn’t played the past three days, so this is a team in much better position to play wire to wire. Especially when you consider this is their fifth game in the last 18 days. Coming off back to back overtime losses hosting Denver, the Suns have much more motivation for a victory tonight. The Thunder are dead last in offensive rebound rate, which should be a major deal against a Suns team that clears the boards defensively in the Top 10. PLAY PHOENIX |
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01-27-21 | Miami-FL +11 v. Florida State | 59-81 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
659 Miami Florida at Florida State The Hurricanes are a much better team than its record suggests. Based on ShotQuality numbers this team is one of the most unlucky in the nation. Miami has won only six games but based on the type of shots taken, as well as the player skill for those shots, the Hurricanes should have 9.4 victories. Florida State on the other hand has been extremely lucky. Having won 9 games where the shot numbers show a 7.4 win team. Florida State no doubt will win the three point battle, but Miami does enough things well enough to stay under this number. PLAY MIAMI FLORIDA |
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01-26-21 | Maple Leafs v. Flames +102 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 50 m | Show | |
24 Toronto at Calgary Leafs are a bit overrated in this contest, coming in with a nice 5-2 record. But this club ranks 10th in 5x5 xGF%, and has outscored the opposition at full strength 22-19. Calgary is just 2-1-1 on the season, but has a 3rd ranked 56.63 xGF% in 5x5 action. The Flames have outscored the opposition 13-9 when playing at full strength. Finding value on the host in this one. PLAY CALGARY |
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01-26-21 | Butler +5.5 v. Connecticut | 51-63 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
633 Butler at Connecticut Revenge game for the Bulldogs who lost to the Huskies at home 72-60. In that game UConn shot 10 of 21 from long distance. Butler ranks 17th in the country in keeping the opposition off the offensive boards. This is also a team that should see some positive regression at the free throw line, ranking 340th with a 60.8 free throw percentage. We’ve made money on the Huskies this year, but the team has gotten a bit overrated. Its terrific offensive rebounding edge won’t have the same affect here. Off back to back losses many will look for a bounce back here from the host, but this is the 284th ranked home court via Evan Miya. ShotQuality states that the Bulldogs are an underrated bunch, projected to have won 10 games instead of the 8-7 record they possess. Connecticut has been a bit lucky with its 8-3 mark. They are only in the 86th percentile offensively, and 91st defensively. Nice value on the road dog here. PLAY BUTLER |
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01-26-21 | Oklahoma +4.5 v. Texas | Top | 80-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
621 Oklahoma at Texas Sooners have won three straight games but now step up in class to play three straight Top 20 squads. Oklahoma ranks 4th in the nation in opponent free throw rate, which is very important when playing on opposing courts. Evan Miya currently has Texas the 312th ranked home court in college basketball. So there will be no intimidation factor for the Longhorns. According to shotquality.com Oklahoma is in the 99th percentile in adjusted offensive SQ rank, and in the 96th percentile in the same defensive ranking. That means the Sooners take high quality shots and limit high scoring chances for the opposition. Texas sits at 93 and 92 in those categories. Texas is 11-2 on the season but have been very lucky with their scoring chances. ShotQuality states that the Longhorns should only be 8.7 and 4.3 in win/loss record. We will fade the overrated Longhorns here on a weak home court. PLAY OKLAHOMA |
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01-25-21 | Senators +135 v. Canucks | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 22 m | Show | |
65 Ottawa at Vancouver After two heavy cards of action on Saturday and Sunday, the lone battle on the ice for Monday is in Canada. Two teams desperate for a victory get together when Ottawa visits Vancouver. Simply can’t trust the Canucks here who rank 29th in the league in 5x5 xGF%. This is a team that has given up 20 goals already in 5x5 play. Ottawa ranks 20th in xGF% in 5x5 action. Being outscored just 11 to 9 at full strength. With home ice advantage meaning less this season than any other, the road dog has solid value. PLAY OTTAWA |
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01-24-21 | Cavs +6.5 v. Celtics | Top | 103-141 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
571 Cleveland at Boston The Cavaliers continue to be overlooked just because of the name on the front of the jersey. This team is a money maker and are now almost fully healthy with Dellavedova and Love remaining out. The trade with the Nets made this one of the deeper teams in the league. This club leads the NBA in defensive turnover percentage and tipped passes. That’s a concern against a Boston team ranking 20th in offensive turnover percentage. The entire team has been buying in defensively, and now the starting backcourt is fully healthy. Jason Tatum remains doubtful for the Celtics as well. We feel the visitor wins this outright. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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01-24-21 | Red Wings +118 v. Blackhawks | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 25 m | Show | |
43 Detroit at Chicago Morning action here on Sunday as the Red Wings look to even this series. The visitor has a slightly better xGF% in 5x5 action. Detroit has been outscored 8 to 6 at full strength, the Blackhawks on the other hand have been outscored 14-4 in 5x5 play. Detroit was a no show in the last meeting, and are a bargain in this quick revenge spot. PLAY DETROIT |
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01-23-21 | Senators +132 v. Jets | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
41 Ottawa at Winnipeg Despite the records showing Winnipeg to be the better team, we find value on the road underdog on Saturday. The Jets are showing an 8-4 scoring advantage in 5x5 action. But a closer look shows they rank 21st in xGF%. This team has been getting very fortunate. The Senators on the other hand are only 1-2-1 but are ranked 13th in xGF%. The Jets won the previous meeting 4-1 but expected goals were dead even, as well as money puck’s deserve to win meter. The clear value is on Ottawa here as we take the plus money visitor. PLAY OTTAWA |
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01-23-21 | 76ers v. Pistons +7 | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
558 Philadelphia at Detroit Over the last 12 days the Sixers have beaten Miami twice and Boston twice, two of its main competitors for the Eastern Conference crown. They just beat Boston yesterday at home and now must travel as a substantial road favorite. Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS on the road this year and were terrible away from home last year as well. Detroit is just 3-12 on the season but are much better than those numbers suggest. The Pistons have played the 5th toughest schedule in the league, as opposed to the 24th toughest for the Sixers. The Detroit defense ranks 3rd in the league in turnovers, and that is a major weakness for the visitor. Philly ranks 28th in offensive turnover percentage. Nice spot for the home dog here as the Sixers likely go through the motions. PLAY DETROIT |
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01-23-21 | Pittsburgh v. Wake Forest +2.5 | Top | 75-76 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
744 Pittsburgh at Wake Forest The Panthers are riding high, winning 8 of 9 and 4 of 5 in conference. Off two wins over Syracuse and beating Duke. After four Top 70 opponents, and six Top 70 opponents on deck, we can see the Panthers overlooking the Demon Deacons here. Wake has lost six straight games, all against top competition. The Panthers at #70 in our ratings are actually the worst team Wake has faced this entire month. After facing the cream of the crop in the ACC, Wake Forest is extremely underrated. Wake is weak defending inside but Pitt is just average from that range. We smell upset. PLAY WAKE FOREST |
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01-23-21 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State +9 | 81-66 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 12 m | Show | |
642 Baylor at Oklahoma State Tough stretch of games for the Bears who just beat Kansas, Texas Tech, TCU and Oklahoma. They are 13-0 on the season, and along with Gonzaga they are elite. But that doesn’t mean they can’t be beaten. Oklahoma State are 9-3 on the year and just 3-3 in conference. But the three losses have been by 1 to TCU, 3 at Texas and 3 vs West Virginia. While this is the third game in eight days for the Bears, the Cowboys haven’t played since the 12th. That gives Mike Boynton and his crew plenty of time to game plan for this contest. We will back the substantial home dog to take this to the wire. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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01-22-21 | Avalanche v. Ducks +170 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
28 Las Vegas at Arizona The Knights are a perfect 4-0 on the season, but have been very fortunate thus far with great 3rd period success. The Golden Knights are outscoring the opposition in 5 on 5 10-5 thus far. But when looking at xGF% they rank 16th in the league. Vegas has gotten great goaltending thus far, but have been very inconsistent in scoring. Arizona is a team we want to be on in the underdog role. Despite the 1-2-1 record this club ranks 7th in the league in xGF% at 55.22. Just above Colorado, Montreal and Calgary. This despite being outscored 9-7 in 5 on 5 action. We watch every Vegas game being a season ticket holder. This team has been extremely fortunate in the early going. PLAY ARIZONA |