Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-26-21 | Golden Knights -130 v. Wild | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
15 Vegas at Minnesota Once again the Knights dominated play and failed to get the win. On the season Vegas is 4-2 when in revenge for losing a game the advanced stats show should have been a win. Interesting side bar for Vegas is that in four years of postseason play they still haven’t clinched a series in front of the home crowd. Minnesota was a house of horrors for this team previously, but that is no longer the case with the road team dominating on the scoreboard. PLAY VEGAS |
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05-26-21 | Penguins -104 v. Islanders | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
9 Pittsburgh at NY Islanders This has been an extremely tight series like we expected. It’s been a clear zig zag series like you would expect from these two squads. With Pittsburgh losing at home last time out in a game it should have won, based on the advanced stats. The Penguins are 5-2 on the season in revenge, when losing a game it fared better in the advanced stats. Look for the road team to come out with a little more fight tonight. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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05-25-21 | Lakers -1.5 v. Suns | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
533 LA Lakers at Phoenix Despite a major size advantage inside the Lakers were dominated on the boards in the opening game 47-33. That shows a lack of effort that the Lakers have to correct in a hurry. We believe they will come out with a totally different mindset here. Shooting just 26.9% from beyond the arc also didn’t help. The Lakers have plenty of playoff experience to the one game the Suns have played. Look for Los Angeles to force the style of play here. PLAY LOS ANGELES LAKERS |
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05-25-21 | Mariners v. A's -165 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -165 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
974 Seattle at Oakland Listed Gilbert & Irvin Logan Gilbert enters this game with an average game score of 40 and an ERA of 9.45. But his advanced numbers are even worse. His average exit velocity is 94.7 mph, and his hard hit percentage is 65.2. To make matters worse, those two starts came against the Tigers and Indians. The wRC+ of those teams vs righties are 91 and 84. Now he takes on an Oakland team with a 102 wRC+ vs right handed starters. Cole Irvin isn’t as good as his stats suggest, but he is a legit MLB starter. Seattle has a 77 wRC+ on the season vs lefties, second worst in baseball. After pulling out a 4-2 victory yesterday, it’s revenge time for the A’s. PLAY OAKLAND |
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05-24-21 | Heat +4.5 v. Bucks | 98-132 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 3 m | Show | |
521 Miami at Milwaukee The Bucks gained their playoff revenge in the opening game, but failed to cover the spread. That says a lot about how the Heat match up well with Milwaukee. Miami has a huge coaching advantage, and have the type of players that are better as a team as opposed to individuals. Look for Miami to even up this series as they continue to be a thorn in the side of the Bucks. PLAY MIAMI |
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05-24-21 | Rays -108 v. Blue Jays | 14-8 | Win | 100 | 1 h 27 m | Show | |
907 Tampa Bay at Toronto Listed Yarbrough & Thornton The Rays are now second in baseball in wRC+ vs righties with a 114 rating, right behind the Dodgers. Despite the recent work of Yarbrough his numbers from an advanced metric are far superior to Thornton. Exit velocity of 84.4 compared to 90.2. Hard hit percentage of 27.6 to 51.6. Tampa Bay is playing great ball right now and finding ways to win. Eight straight wins by multiple runs. Don’t want to fad that in this price range. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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05-23-21 | Oilers -121 v. Jets | 4-5 | Loss | -121 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
67 Edmonton at Winnipeg Maybe we are a gluten for punishment, but we believe the Oilers have outplayed the Jets in this series, despite being down 2-0. Maybe getting out of town will be the elixir for this Edmonton offense. This was a group that excelled all season putting goals on the board, and we aren’t giving up on what we consider to be the better team. What we have done all season is not going to change after two bad resulting games. Give us the Oilers to get back into this series. PLAY EDMONTON |
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05-23-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -133 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show | |
958 Arizona at Colorado Listed Widener & Gray The Rockies are simply a different team at home than on the road. It’s been this way for years but even more pronounced this season. They are 15-12 in Coors Field and 2-17 when on the road. John Gray’s last four home starts have resulted in game scores of 66, 60, 62 and 56. He knows how to pitch in this ballpark. Taylor Widener has never started a game here. Arizona is fading fast losing 9 of 10 games and seven straight. Up until scoring six runs yesterday they had scored a combined seven total runs in the previous six games. With a 9-20 road record on the season, we will fade the DBacks on Sunday. PLAY COLORADO |
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05-22-21 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs -183 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
56 Montreal at Toronto The underdogs have had a great amount of success in the opening game of these series. The same was true in this one, as Toronto likely took them for granted. Now that the Maple Leafs staff has seen what the Canadiens are trying to do, we look for the better team to make the needed adjustments. PLAY TORONTO |
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05-22-21 | Tigers +135 v. Royals | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
917 Detroit at Kansas City Listed Boyd & Singer The Royals have an 84 wRC+ on the season vs lefty starters. Detroit has a 91 wRC+ vs right handed starters. Detroit is playing the much better ball as of late winning 8 of 10 games, the Royals remain in a 20 game skid. Matthew Boyd has been very good this season with a 2.45 ERA. His last seven starts have had an average 59 game score. His last three on the road resulted in a 40 game score against the White Sox, the best lefty hitting team in baseball. Along with a 66 game score at Oakland, and a 61 at Houston. Brady Singer has a bright future and we really like him, but this line is simply too high to consider the Royals who are still trying to right the ship. PLAY DETROIT |
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05-22-21 | Mavs +6 v. Clippers | 113-103 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
509 Dallas at LA Clippers In the opening game of a series, we have had success in the past by playing on a team looking for playoff revenge. That team ended their dreams the prior season, and the squad has been waiting for the change for revenge for a full year. PLAY DALLAS |
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05-22-21 | Penguins v. Islanders -108 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
54 Pittsburgh at NY Islanders This series has been about as close as you could have asked for. But during the regular season Pittsburgh was close to unbeatable at home, but not nearly as good on the road. Now trailing the series 2-1 we can expect the host to get the better of the Penguins. This looks to be a six or seven game series, and we expect the hosts to have a sizable edge from here on out. PLAY NY ISLANDERS |
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05-22-21 | Heat v. Bucks -5 | 107-109 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 8 m | Show | |
504 Miami at Milwaukee In the opening game of a series, we have had success in the past by playing on a team looking for playoff revenge. That team ended their dreams the prior season, and the squad has been waiting for the change for revenge for a full year. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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05-22-21 | White Sox +183 v. Yankees | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 54 m | Show | |
913 Chicago WS at New York Yankees Listed Cease & Cole This line is way too high based on the talent of these two teams. The White Sox have a higher wRC+ on the season between these two. Yes Cole is the better pitcher, but Dylan Cease has been extremely good as of late. In his last seven starts his average game score has been 60, while Cole’s has been 68. This isn’t nearly as big of pitching edge for the Yankees as this line suggests. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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05-21-21 | A's +102 v. Angels | 8-4 | Win | 102 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
973 Oakland at LA Angels Listed Kaprielian & Quintana The A’s are 11-6 on the season vs lefties, with a 115 wRC+. The Angels are 15-18 vs righties with a 104 wRC+. James Kaprielian made a successful Major League debut nine days ago at Fenway Park. He should find success in Anaheim tonight. Jose Quintana has only two of his last seven starts better than league average in game scores. He’s not as bad as his 8.53 ERA, but he’s no longer a successful Major League starter. The Angels are without Mike Trout and the team is trying to fit in backups in the starting roles. We would trust the Oakland bats to have more success here. PLAY OAKLAND |
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05-21-21 | Jets v. Oilers -165 | 1-0 | Loss | -165 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
46 Winnipeg at Edmonton We lost on the Oilers in game one, but despite the defeat we liked the way they played. According to the advanced stats Edmonton suffered from bad puck luck. That and only getting one power play chance the entire contest. The Oilers are dominant on the power play, and Winnipeg stayed out of the penalty box in that opening meeting. But you can’t expect that to happen again with the speed of this Edmonton first line. Let’s look for a nice rebound here for the Oilers. PLAY EDMONTON |
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05-21-21 | White Sox -105 v. Yankees | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
963 Chicago WS at NY Yankees Listed Rodon & Montgomery Facing left-handed starters this year the White Sox lead baseball with a wRC+ of 142, the Yankees 105. Record wise the Sox are 9-2 vs lefties while the Yankees are 5-6. Rodon has been the far more impressive starter, with a no-hitter to his credit and a 1.47 ERA. But his last start was his worst of the season with a 39 game score. Montgomery is also coming in off a bad start with a 29 game score at Baltimore. Overall five of his last seven starts have been below the league average of a 50 game score. Carlos Rodon has increased his 4 seam fastball by 2.2 mph this season, and his slider is also up in velocity. All three of his pitches have all improved when looking at WOBA. We trust this White Sox team vs lefties, and Rodon has been much more consistent than his mound counterpart. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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05-21-21 | Red Sox +144 v. Phillies | 11-3 | Win | 144 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
977 Boston at Philadelphia Listed Perez & Nola The starting pitcher matchup isn’t nearly as dominant for the Phillies as you would expect. In fact, Perez actually has a lower ERA, and has had better game scores his last four combined starts than Nola. Boston is 4th in baseball in wRC+ vs righties while the Phillies are 17th in wRC+ vs southpaws. Boston’s road record is also better than the Phillies home mark. Philadelphia has been held to one or less runs in five of its last ten games. No way we trust this team in this favorite role. PLAY BOSTON |
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05-20-21 | Golden Knights v. Wild -102 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -102 | 24 h 28 m | Show |
40 Vegas at Minnesota Being a season ticket holder we went to the first two games in Las Vegas. After watching those games in person, and viewing the regular season games on television, it’s clear that these two teams are equal against each other. While the Golden Knights have dominated against the bottom feeders of the division, Minnesota has the speed and talent to match up extremely well in this series. While the Knights grabbed the 3-1 victory on Tuesday, the Wild were the more consistent team throughout the game. Now going up north to Minnesota, we expect a big bounce back from the host. Considering that Vegas has won once in regulation in four years in Minnesota, and the Knights are off a satisfying victory, it’s time for the Wild to shine. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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05-20-21 | Panthers +129 v. Lightning | 6-5 | Win | 129 | 22 h 35 m | Show | |
33 Florida at Tampa Bay Coming into the series Florida had the home ice advantage, and yet Tampa Bay was made the series favorite. After the first two games the scoreboard would agree with the Lightning as the better team. But the Panthers played much better than the final scores indicated. Now returning home with a 2-0 series lead, the Lightning can’t help but think they are in complete control of this opponent. As for Florida, this is a do or die game from a team that knows it can compete on a daily basis with Tampa Bay. Look for the Panthers to be the more aggressive team, and the price is certainly a value. PLAY FLORIDA |
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05-20-21 | Astros -114 v. A's | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
915 Houston at Oakland Listed Garcia & Irvin The Astros rank right behind the White Sox in wRC+ vs left-handed starters. They have a 125 wRC+ which is 25% better than an average team. Cole Irvin has over performed for the A’s with a nice 3.02 ERA on the season. His 4.1% walk rate has been outstanding. But in looking over the advanced stats he is due for some regression. His four seam fastball is 2 mph slower than a year ago. His other pitches have all dropped a full mph from last year as well. His exit velocity is 91 mph and his hard hit rate in 41.7%. We look for the Astros bats to have success early. Luis Garcia has really good advanced stats with a hard hit rate of only 87.9 mph, and a strikeout percentage of 27.8. He has had five straight starts of better than average game scores. PLAY HOUSTON |
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05-19-21 | Astros -113 v. A's | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
975 Houston at Oakland Listed Greinke and Montas On the season vs right-handed starters the Astros have a wRC+ of 115, 2nd in baseball. The Athletics have a 98 wRC+ on the year. Oakland has beaten up weak opposition but has struggled when stepping up in class. Zack Greinke hasn’t been great this year with a 4.18 ERA, but he has had a lot of success against Oakland. His last five starts against the A’s have resulted in a game score of 61, with no start worse than a 47. Frankie Montas over the last two seasons has permitted 18 home runs in 95 innings of work, with an ERA of around 5.30. Would rather trust the veteran Greinke with the much better offense. PLAY HOUSTON |
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05-19-21 | Jets v. Oilers -148 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -148 | 30 h 54 m | Show |
28 Winnipeg at Edmonton In 5x5 play in G+-/60 Winnipeg ranks 15th and Edmonton 18th. In xG/60 the Jets are -0.29 and the Oilers are -0.02. So the Oilers are much better than the actual goals scored would suggest. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Winnipeg ranks 9th and Edmonton 1st. In xG/60 we find the Jets +6.34 and the Oilers +7.89. Over 1 1/2 goals per 60 minutes on the power play for the host. Playing Short Handed the Jets rank 10th and the Oilers 16th in G+-/60. In xG/60 Winnipeg is -6.91 and Edmonton -7.00. So virtually equal when looking at expected goals. Edmonton won 7 of 9 in this series, outscoring the Jets 34-23. There are only two quality teams coming out of Canada in these playoffs, Toronto and Edmonton. We will gladly lay the price here to get the Oilers at home. PLAY EDMONTON |
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05-19-21 | Mets +166 v. Braves | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
957 NY Mets at Atlanta Listed Peterson & Morton Yes the Mets have been dealing with injuries as of late, and the lineup isn’t as strong as it was a couple weeks ago. But how can you trust Charlie Morton and this Braves team against lefties in this price zone? The Braves have an 82 wRC+ on the season vs lefty starters, 18% worse than a normal league average. Morton has just one of his last six starts with a game score better than league average. Peterson has been much more impressive his last six starts. A 69 game score at Tampa Bay, and a 61 game score at Chicago Cubs in his previous two road starts. This game has been bet up overnight, which now gives us a solid selection on the underdog Mets. PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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05-18-21 | Wild v. Golden Knights -155 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
18 Minnesota at Vegas In 5x5 G+-/60 Minnesota ranks 27th and Vegas 10th. In xG/60 we find the Wild +0.22 and the Knights 0.41. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Minnesota ranks 23rd and Vegas 20th. In xG/60 the Wild are +5.42 and the Knights +7.47. A huge advantage for the host that doesn’t show when looking at actual goals. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Minnesota ranks 14th and Las Vegas ranks 2nd. In xG/60 the Wild are -5.33 and the Golden Knights are -5.13. Minnesota has played very well against Vegas this season, but the Knights are 4-2 playing with revenge off a game they outplayed the opposition and still lost. On a rink that has produced a 21-5-2 regular season record, we look for the host to even up this series. PLAY VEGAS |
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05-18-21 | Indians v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
924 Cleveland at LA Angels Listed Plesac & Heaney The Indians have a wRC+ of 78 on the season vs left handed pitching. The Angels are a 105 wRC+ vs right-handed starters, but they will be without their best hitter. Plesac has been terrific all season, but especially as of late with game scores of 69, 83, 65 and 60 entering this contest. Heaney has been inconsistent, but has still had success. We can’t see this weak hitting Cleveland lineup having too much success in this one. PLAY UNDER |
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05-18-21 | Islanders v. Penguins -135 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
14 NY Islanders at Pittsburgh We played the Islanders in the first game of this series, and came away with a nice overtime victory. But in watching that game it was clear that Pittsburgh was the better team. The Penguins have a 4-2 record in revenge after outplaying the opposition and still losing. Now back home down 0-1 we have to expect a rebound from the Penguins on Tuesday. This team posted a 22-4-2 record on this ice during the regular season. And the Islanders won only 11 of 28 total games on the road. Lay it with the host. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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05-17-21 | Nationals +140 v. Cubs | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
955 Washington at Chicago Cubs Listed Lester & Alzolay Big game for Jon Lester as he spent the last six seasons with the Cubs. You know this game was one that he had circled coming into this season. And so far this year he has been a pleasant surprise with the Nets. His game scores have been 57, 50 and 56. While the Cubs are 9-3 on the season vs lefty starters, their wRC+ is only 101. Adbert Alzolay has a bright future, and he has been very good this young season. But this line is simply too high not to take a solid shot with Lester and the Nationals. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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05-17-21 | Bruins -125 v. Capitals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 39 m | Show |
1 Boston at Washington Now that the Capitals took the first game, we have a solid opportunity on Boston to even the series. In 5x5 G+-/60 the Bruins are 12th and the Capitals 4th. In xG/60 we find Boston +0.27 and Washington +0.15. So regression is in store for the visitor. On the Power Play Washington ranks 8th and Boston 16th in G+-/60. In xG/60 we find the Bruins +5.31 and the Capitals +6.41. A sizable advantage for the host. Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 Boston ranks 3rd and Washington 5th. In xG/60 the Bruins are -3.92 and the Capitals -5.27. A terrific advantage for Boston, as Washington is overrated in the rankings. Boston should have won the first game and now Washington is having a weaker goaltending situation. PLAY BOSTON |
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05-16-21 | Nationals v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 30 m | Show | |
910 Washington at Arizona Action These two have combined for 15 and 19 runs the past two days. But we feel the pitching will rule the day here. Each team has had two big offensive games their last ten, but the vast majority of the time these offenses have struggled. The other eight games for the Nationals had two runs scored four times, and none more than five in a game. The Diamondbacks had six of eight with scoring of two runs or less. Washington ranks 22nd in wRC+ vs righties starters, and Arizona comes in 19th in the same category. No reason to expect another high scoring affair. PLAY UNDER |
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05-16-21 | Islanders +120 v. Penguins | 4-3 | Win | 120 | 1 h 5 m | Show | |
63 NY Islanders at Pittsburgh The Islanders backed into the playoffs after struggling at the end of the season. But this is a well coached team that has shown itself to be able to compete with the majority of teams in this league. In 5x5 play G+-/60 NY ranks 8th and Pittsburgh 6th. In xG/60 we find the Islanders +0.36 and Pittsburgh -0.05. On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Islanders rank 14th and the Penguins 5th. In xG/60 we see NY +6.33 and Pittsburgh +5.73. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Islanders rank 4th and the Penguins 23rd. In xG/60 NY is -5.50 and Pittsburgh -5.55. So we are getting the better team in expected goals as an underdog. A team that is being an afterthought in the playoff discussion. Yep, that’s something we want to take advantage of. PLAY NEW YORK ISLANDERS |
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05-15-21 | Braves v. Brewers UNDER 8 | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
954 Atlanta at Milwaukee Listed Anderson & Anderson Sounds like a lawyers office with Anderson vs Anderson on the Saturday slate. The Braves rank 29th on the season vs lefties with a 66 wRC+. The Brewers have struggled vs righties with a 76 wRC+, also ranking 29th in baseball. Both pitchers have been league average or better this season, with both ERA’s under four. After scoring nine last night, let’s look for a lower scoring affair. PLAY UNDER |
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05-15-21 | Royals v. White Sox -181 | 5-1 | Loss | -181 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
970 Kansas City at Chicago White Sox Listed Minor & Rodon Don’t usually lay this type of number on the diamond, but in this case the line is cheap. Looking at season to date wRC+ vs lefties, the Royals are 79 and the Sox 154. The Royals split the doubleheader yesterday to break a ten game losing streak. Mike Minor is facing the Sox for the third time already this season, he has allowed six earned runs in nine innings of work. Rodon threw a six inning shutout of the Royals about a week ago. Chicago is on a 23-1 run when facing a lefty starter. Just can’t pass up a chance to back them at a very reasonable number. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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05-14-21 | A's v. Twins +106 | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
924 Oakland at Minnesota Listed Montas & Shoemaker Frankie Montas has pitched just twice on the road this season. He faced these Twins once at the Big O and allowed six earned runs in four innings. The Twins lit him up for three homers. Matt Shoemaker has been a solid starter when healthy. But he too has had consistency problems this season. He was hit hard in Oakland allowing five earned runs in 3.1 innings of work. On the season vs righties the respective wRC+ numbers are Minnesota 108 and Oakland 93. Oakland has been very lucky when looking at one run games and extra inning contests, with a combined 11-3 record. The Twins have been the opposite at 3-14. Things haven’t gone right with Minnesota this season but this team has equal if not more talent than Oakland. Let’s take the nice price with the Twins. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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05-14-21 | Phillies +142 v. Blue Jays | 5-1 | Win | 142 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
931 Philadelphia at Toronto Action Not going to specify pitchers in this one as we rate both projected starters in the same range. More of a situational play along with line value. Toronto is back in Dunedin for the first time in quite a while. Having traveled to Oakland, Houston and Atlanta, three teams expecting to be in the playoffs. Now in the first game back after a three game sweep in Atlanta, we can see this team being preoccupied. We had some interest in the overnight lines, but now that Toronto has taken action, it’s time to pounce on the road dog with value. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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05-13-21 | Indians -112 v. Mariners | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
971 Cleveland at Seattle Listed Plesac & Gilbert There is a song by one of our favorites, Motorhead, called “The chase is better than the catch”. While that song is about pursuing a woman, the same could be applied here with Logan Gilbert. Seattle has a loaded minor league system and tonight the Seattle faithful get to see the two players they have been waiting on for the last two years. They will both be in the lineup tonight against the Indians. But while the future is bright for both these players, the Major Leagues are a huge step up in quality. There is excitement in the air for not only baseball fans, but sports bettors as this line has dropped 20 cents since the opener. And that move puts us squarely on the Tribe and Zach Plesac. Did you know that the young righty for the Indians has pitched three games this season without allowing a run? When not facing the Chicago White Sox he has put up game scores of 83, 65, 60, 77 and 54. Outstanding work for a pitcher that finished last season with a 2.28 ERA. The Indians have won eight of nine games heading into this contest, and are 10-7 on the season away from Progressive Field. Seattle on the other hand has faded of late, losing four straight heading into this contest. The Mariners rookies are going to be good, but they are not saviors in their first game. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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05-13-21 | Wild -108 v. Blues | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
37 Minnesota at St Louis The Wild were embarrassed yesterday and we expect a major bounce back. They are 6-3 this year playing in the second game of a back to back situation. In 5x5 play in G+-/60 the Wild rank 9th and the Blues 19th. In xG/60 we find Minnesota +0.20 and St Louis -0.33. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Minnesota ranks 23rd and St Louis 4th. In xG/60 the Wild are +5.13 and the Blues +6.02. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Wild Rank 11th and the Blues 22nd. In xG/60 we find Minnesota -5.23 and St Louis -7.63. The only advantage St Louis has is on the Power Play, but that is overshadowed by the other two situations for Minnesota. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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05-13-21 | Royals -102 v. Tigers | 3-4 | Loss | -102 | 1 h 23 m | Show | |
961 Kansas City at Detroit Listed Lynch & Turnbull Daniel Lynch is a highly regarded pitching prospect for the Royals, who has gotten off to a terrible start in his first two games at the Major League level. He enters play with an 18.56 ERA in 5.1 innings of work. Both those starts were in Kansas City, and it can only help that he’s getting out of town. The Royals have also lost ten straight games coming into this contest. But yet, we much prefer the Royals in this afternoon matchup. Over the last three seasons Spencer Turnbull has posted a combined 8-23 record with the Tigers. In looking at wRC+ vs lefty starters the Tigers have a 45 wRC+. Keep in mind league average is in the 100 range, and the Tigers are dead last. Do we really want to back the Tigers in this situation as a favorite. Hell No! Give us the team with more talent, a pitcher with a much higher ceiling and getting the Royals as an underdog. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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05-12-21 | Blue Jays +107 v. Braves | 4-1 | Win | 107 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
925 Toronto at Atlanta Listed Ryu & Fried Two terrific lefties take the mound tonight in Georgia. On the season the Blue Jays have a wRC+ of 106 vs southpaws and the Braves 59, second worst in baseball ahead of the Tigers. Max Fried looked good in his first start since coming off the IL, with a 60 game score at Washington. But he only threw 72 pitches and his season high is only 86. We rank him very closely with Ryu, so the starters should be close to a wash. Toronto is 11-12 away from home while the Braves are only playing .500 ball in this building. With the major hitting edge here for the visitor, we can’t pass up this underdog price. PLAY TORONTO |
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05-11-21 | Canucks v. Jets -165 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
26 Vancouver at Winnipeg Limited writeup today based on time constraints. The Jets outplayed the Canucks yesterday, despite coming up short on the scoreboard. Quick revenge spot here for the better team. It’s a battle between the Jets and the Canadiens on who can avoid Toronto in the first round. Two games left for Winnipeg and one for Montreal, with the Jets holding a one point lead. We preferred Vancouver yesterday if we had to make a choice, Winnipeg comes through tonight. PLAY WINNIPEG |
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05-11-21 | Rangers v. Giants OVER 8 | 2-4 | Loss | -118 | 2 h 56 m | Show | |
971 Texas at San Francisco Listed Lyles & Webb Both teams rank in the Top 10 in wRC+ this season vs righties. Neither pitcher has been effective with ERA’s of 7.09 for Lyles and 5.34 for Webb. Logan Webb has one start all season better than league average, Lyles has accomplished that just twice. After a low scoring affair with two much better starters yesterday, the bats shine tonight by the bay. PLAY OVER |
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05-10-21 | Avalanche -108 v. Golden Knights | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show | |
21 Colorado at Vegas Most of the time when you have a must win contest it’s a team that put themselves in that position by not winning enough games. Colorado is a team that suffered key injuries to put themselves behind the eight ball. They trail the Knights by four points, and it’s extremely important to win the division because nobody wants to play Minnesota in the opening round. In 5x5 action in G+-/60 Colorado ranks 1st and Vegas 3rd. In xG/60 we see the Avalanche at +0.88 and the Knights at +0.39. Basically a half goal per 60 minutes of 5x5 time. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Colorado ranks 3rd and the Knights 19th. In xG/60 we find the Avalanche at +8.10 and Vegas at +7.20. Basically a full goal better on the power play for the visitor. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Colorado ranks 9th and Vegas ranks 3rd. In xG/60 we find the Avalanche are -5.11 and the Knights are -5.20. So positive regression is on the side of the Avalanche. Colorado has advantages everywhere and are in a must win situation, yet the current line shows plenty of value on the visitor. PLAY COLORADO |
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05-10-21 | Blues v. Kings +118 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
20 St Louis at Los Angeles The Blues can’t move up in the standings, or move down. They are locked into that fourth position in the division. They gave little effort last time out vs Vegas, and we can see them not being too interested here. Los Angeles on the other hand has fared well against the Blues this season, and are looking to pass the Sharks for sixth place in the west. On the season St Louis is a net -10 goals and the Kings a -16 goals, so these teams are much closer than the records suggest. In xG/60 Los Angeles is the better team, and to get them as a home dog in their final home game is a no brainer. PLAY LOS ANGELES |
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05-10-21 | Red Sox -134 v. Orioles | 1-4 | Loss | -134 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
907 Boston at Baltimore Listed Perez & Lopez We rarely go out of our way to back Martin Perez, but he’s actually not that bad this season. The league average game score is 50, and he has been within 10 of that number in all but one start this season. That bad start was against the White Sox, and we all know how Chicago pounds lefties. His last two starts resulted in game scores of 51 and 60. Jorge Lopez is one of the worst starters in baseball. The last three seasons his ERA is roughly 6.50. He hasn’t had a season with an ERA under six. He faced the Red Sox once this year going four innings and allowing seven earned runs. Boston is 14-10 vs righties and the Orioles are 5-8 vs lefties. Boston is 12-4 on the road, while the O’s are 4-13 at home. We liked this game overnight and the line has even gotten better. PLAY BOSTON |
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05-09-21 | Senators +178 v. Flames | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
9 Ottawa at Calgary Must win game for the Flames as they are still mathematically alive to make the playoffs. Which is why this line is so high. But we’ve always said that teams in must win games must not be very good to put themselves in this type of situation. Over the last ten games Calgary has gone 5-5-0 and Ottawa 8-1-1. The Sens have played three more games but have two more points than Calgary. After spending the entire season in dead last this team can finish the season in fifth place. So even though Ottawa played yesterday, in their minds they are also motivated in this contest. In G+-/60 in 5x5 play we find Ottawa ranking 26th and Calgary 18th. In xG/60 we see the Sens -0.19 and the Flames +0.17. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Ottawa ranks 28th and Calgary 22nd. In xG/60 we find the Senators +5.36 and the Flames +5.36, exactly even. Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 the Senators are ranked 13th and the Flames 21st. In xG/60 we find Ottawa -5.94 and Calgary -5.68. White the Flames need to win this game to keep their season alive, the numbers say these two teams are close to even. A huge advantage in price for the Senators. By the way, Ottawa has taken six of eight games in this series this season. PLAY OTTAWA |
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05-09-21 | Phillies v. Braves +102 | 1-6 | Win | 102 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
962 Philadelphia at Atlanta Listed Nola & Ynoa Aaron Nola is a popular betting choice every time he takes the mound, and for good reason. His average game score in his last seven starts has been 61. But on the road this season his starts have been 47, 52 and 58, good but not outstanding. Huascar Ynoa has come out of nowhere to be the Braves savior this season. His six starts have averaged a 61 game score, the same as Nola. But at home he has put up numbers of 71, 64 and 67. The Phillies are only 5-10 on the road this season, and despite the current records, the Braves are the better team in our ratings. Nice number for the home squad. PLAY ATLANTA |
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05-09-21 | Dodgers -180 v. Angels | 1-2 | Loss | -180 | 3 h 18 m | Show | |
979 Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels Listed Bauer & Quintana Simply put, you would have to look a long while before you saw a pitching mismatch this large. Bauer has been outstanding once again this season with an average game score in his last seven starts of 66. He has a 2.44 ERA after a 1.73 ERA last season. We know what we will get from Bauer, excellence. Jose Quintana not so much. His last seven starts overall have a 37 average game score. Only once in that time frame has he had a start better than the league average of 50. Looking for regression in one run games combined with extra inning results. We see the Dodgers at 5-15 and the Angels 4-3. Despite the bad luck of the Dodgers they are still 18-16 on the season, the Angels 14-18. We don’t often lay numbers this big, but the value is too large to pass up. PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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05-09-21 | White Sox -144 v. Royals | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 42 m | Show | |
967 Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Listed Giolito & Minor Lucas Giolito has had just one start all season with a game score under 52. League average is 50, so only once was he not good this season. But that one start at Boston has screwed his confidence from the betting markets. Mike Minor has had just one start this season over that 52 game score. The Sox are 9-7 on the road while KC has slumped to 8-11 at Kaufman Field. Chicago is 6-1 on the season vs lefties, with a wRC+ of 141. Picking right up where this team left off last season, raking against southpaws. Chicago is just 3-6 combined in one run and extra inning games, the Royals on the other hand have been very fortunate at 7-2. We look for regression in those numbers. Give us the lefty killing Sox with their ace on the mound. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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05-08-21 | Red Wings +118 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
57 Detroit at Columbus In 5x5 G+-/60 Detroit ranks 25th and Columbus 30th. In xG/60 we find the Red Wings -0.4 and the Blue Jackets -0.46. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Detroit ranks 30th and Columbus 26th. In xG/60 its the Red Wings at +4.14 and the Blue Jackets at +3.82. So the Red Wings are better than the actual goals suggest. Playing Short Handed Detroit ranks 28th and Columbus 15th. In xG/60 we find the Wings -6.78 and the Jackets -5.11. A substantial advantage for the host. Detroit leads the season series four to three, and this is the final game of the season for both these squads. The Red Wings came into the season with no expectations at all. While the Blue Jackets expected to make the playoffs. We expect the visitor to come out with more energy as this team has played pretty well down the stretch. Columbus not so much. PLAY DETROIT |
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05-08-21 | Senators +162 v. Jets | 4-2 | Win | 162 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
65 Ottawa at Winnipeg In 5x5 G+-/60 Ottawa ranks 27th and Winnipeg 15th. In xG/60 the Senators are -0.20 and the Jets -0.34. Regression heavily favors Ottawa. On the Power Play Ottawa ranks 28th and Winnipeg 7th. In xG/60 we find the Senators at +5.39 and the Jets +6.38. A nice edge for the host. On the Penalty Kill the Senators rank 13th and the Jets 12th. In xG/60 we find Ottawa -5.97 and Winnipeg -6.95. An equal edge for the visitor. Winnipeg has won six of the nine games this season, but the last six have been split. Ottawa is playing the much better hockey down the stretch with a 7-2-1 mark while the Jets are 3-7-0. This line is simply too high to consider the favorite. PLAY OTTAWA |
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05-08-21 | Red Sox -131 v. Orioles | 11-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
919 Boston at Baltimore Listed Richards only Garrett Richards has always had talent, but injuries have cost him a big part of his career. But he looks healthy now and his numbers this season have been pretty good overall. But outside of Fenway Park is where he really has had success. In his road starts his game scores have been 54 here in Baltimore, 57, 69 and 61. The Sox are 10-4 on the road this season, and 7-3 vs lefty starters. On the year vs lefties Boston has a wRC+ of 110 while the O’s are 78 vs righties. Nice value here for the road squad. PLAY BOSTON |
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05-07-21 | Blues v. Golden Knights -163 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
46 St Louis at Vegas In 5x5 play in G+-/60 the Blues rank 19th and the Knights 3rd. In xG/60 St Louis is -0.32 and Vegas +0.38. A solid .70 goals advantage per 60 minutes for the host. On the Power Play St Louis ranks 3rd and Vegas 15th in G+-/60. Looking at xG/60 we find the Blues +5.97 and the Knights +7.20. So there is major regression on the horizon for both these teams, with Vegas having a sizable expected goal advantage. On the Penalty Kill St Louis ranks 27th and Vegas 3rd in G+-/60. In xG/60 we see the Blues -7.67 and the Knights -5.14. A major advantage of over 2.5 goals per 60 minutes playing short handed. Vegas is 4-2 in the season series with one of the losses coming in a shootout. The line is cheap here because many expect a letdown after finally winning in Minnesota a couple days ago. Normally that would be a concern, but a similar situation occurred about a week ago. The Knights had just beaten Colorado in an important game to bring their winning streak to ten games. They traveled to Arizona and were dominated by the Coyotes 3-0. The team as a whole talked about taking that game for granted and said they couldn’t afford to do that again. With that situation fresh in their minds we expect 100% effort from the host tonight. Look for the Knights to make a statement against their likely first round playoff opponent. PLAY VEGAS |
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05-07-21 | Padres v. Giants +130 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 130 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
962 San Diego at San Francisco Listed Snell & DeSclafani We’ve been riding DeSclafani this year because he has been severely underrated. As mentioned before, when not pitching in the launching pad of Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, his numbers have been solid. This season he has had six starts, with five of those being 55 or better game scores. His worst start of the season was a 43 at Philadelphia, another great hitters park. He faced the Padres just six days ago and allowed three earned runs in six innings. Blake Snell faced off against him in that game and yielded just a single run in five innings of work. In two road starts for Snell this season his game scores have been 33 and 51. Pitching at home DeSclafani has produced game scores of 67 and 89. The Giants are 7-4 on the season vs lefty starters, and are 10-3 at home this season. Nice value on the host. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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05-07-21 | Red Wings +128 v. Blue Jackets | 5-2 | Win | 128 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
31 Detroit at Columbus In 5x5 play in G+-/60 the Red Wings rank 25th and the Blue Jackets 30th. In xG/60 we find Detroit -0.42 and Columbus -0.47. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Detroit ranks 30th and Columbus 26th. In xG/60 the Red Wings are +4.13 and the Jackets +3.82. So the advanced numbers favor the visitor. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Columbus ranks 15th and Detroit 28th. In xG/60 the Blue Jackets are -5.12 and the Red Wings are -6.81. A sizable advantage for the host. These teams have split the six game season series thus far, but Detroit is playing much better now than earlier in the season. With a win here Detroit can knock the Blue Jackets into last place. Considering the start this team had that would be a major accomplishment. Columbus is just playing out the disappointing season, look for the Red Wings to dominate play tonight. PLAY DETROIT |
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05-06-21 | Rays +115 v. Angels | 8-3 | Win | 115 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
919 Tampa Bay at Los Angeles Angels Listed McHugh & Heaney Looks like a bullpen game for the Rays as McHugh has only thrown 5.1 innings on the season. But that’s ok in our book as we really like these Rays relievers. Andrew Heaney can look incredible one start and terrible the next. His game scores this year have run the gamut of 23 to 75. Simply can’t trust him here against a team with post season veterans. Tampa Bay is 10-5 on the road this season, while the Angels have a losing record at home. The last three seasons Tampa has won seven of the ten meetings in this series, along with all three this season. The Angels bats have been silent as of late scoring just seven runs combined the last four games. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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05-06-21 | Braves -113 v. Nationals | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
905 Atlanta at Washington Listed Smyly & Lester Two starters have have seen better days go head to head on Thursday. Jon Lester finally took the mound for the first time with the Nationals and he went five innings without allowing a run. But don’t get excited, it’s still the same Jon Lester. Drew Smyly looked good in his first start of the season but has since put up game scores of 40, 30 and 25. He has allowed nine home runs in only 19 innings of work. But other than his last start against Toronto in the launch pad that is Dunedin, his control has been good. We expect a bounce back start from the veteran lefty. Looking a possible regression for these two teams as Atlanta has a combined 5-10 record in extra inning and one run games. Washington is 6-2 in those categories. We like the Braves chances here as we have much more confidence in the better team PLAY ATLANTA |
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05-05-21 | Jets v. Flames -123 | 4-0 | Loss | -123 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
14 Winnipeg at Calgary In 5x5 G+-/60 Winnipeg ranks 17th and Calgary 18th. In xG/60 we find the Jets -0.34 and the Flames +0.17. A nice advantage for the host. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Winnipeg ranks 7th and Calgary 18th. In xG/60 it’s the Jets at +6.47 and the Flames +5.44. A substantial edge for the visitor. Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 we find Winnipeg ranking 15th and Calgary 17th. In xG/60 the Jets are -7.11 and the Flames -5.76. A major advantage for the host. Calgary has taken some money overnight, and we firmly agree with that move. This line is cheap for the host. PLAY CALGARY |
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05-05-21 | Pirates +1.5 v. Padres | 2-4 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
963 Pittsburgh at San Diego Listed Brubaker & Darvish Here is our did you know segment of the week. Did you know over the past three seasons Pittsburgh has won 9 of the 13 meetings between these two clubs? For some reason the Pirates have matched up extremely well with the high priced Padres. JT Brubaker has never faced San Diego, advantage pitcher. In his last seven starts he has been consistently good, with an average game score of 56. His starts on the road this year have produced game scores of 54, 68 and 64. He is coming off his worst start of the season, a 48, just two points lower than league average. We all know how good Yu Darvish has been, Cy Young good. But the Padres bats have been in hibernation lately, scoring four runs in their last three games. With a total of 6 1/2 this game should be extremely pitching heavy and competitive. We are recommending the run line here. PLAY PITTSBURGH +1 1/2 |
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05-05-21 | Golden Knights v. Wild +102 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
12 Vegas at Minnesota In 5x5 G+-/60 Vegas ranks 3rd and Minnesota 7th. In xG/60 the Knights are +0.37 and the Wild are 0.16. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Vegas ranks 17th and Minnesota 23rd. In xG/60 we find the Knights +7.11 and the Wild +5.67. A sizable advantage for the visitor. Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 Vegas ranks 3rd and Minnesota 10th. In xG/60 the Knights are -5.32 and the Wild -5.10. Much better than the actual results show. The numbers suggest Vegas to be the better team, and they are. But this has been the toughest matchup for the Golden Knights in their short history. They have yet to beat Minnesota in regulation in this building. Even the head coach came out this week and said it’s in their heads after blowing a two goal lead heading into the third period on Monday. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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05-05-21 | Canadiens v. Senators +133 | 1-5 | Win | 133 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
80 Montreal at Ottawa In 5x5 G+-/60 Montreal ranks 13th and Ottawa 28th. In xG/60 the Canadiens are +0.35, and the Senators -0.23. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Montreal ranks 13th and Ottawa 28th. In xG/60 the Canadiens are +5.54 and the Sens +5.32, much closer than the actual goals show. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Montreal ranks 11th and Ottawa 12th. In xG/60 the Canadiens are -5.90 and the Sens -6.02. While the seasonal stats show Montreal to be the better team, the Senators are playing much better as of late. Montreal is 5-5-0 as of late, Ottawa is 7-2-1. Montreal needs the win to try to avoid Toronto in the opening round, but that need is included in this line. The opener was much too high, and we agree with the line move. PLAY OTTAWA |
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05-05-21 | Orioles +105 v. Mariners | Top | 6-0 | Win | 105 | 2 h 29 m | Show |
965 Baltimore at Seattle Listed Means & Kikuchi John Means has simply been outstanding this year. In his last seven starts he has a 67 average game score with a 1.67 ERA. To make those stats even better, 5 of his last 7 starts have been on the road. Even more impressive those starts were at really strong venues of the A’s, Rangers, Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays. Now he takes a step down to face the Mariners, who according to wRC+ is the weakest offensive opponent he has faced. Kikuchi has been better this year, but he still owns a 4.40 ERA. Pitching at home this year he has permitted eight earned runs in 13 innings of work. We always look for luck factors in small sizes this early in the season. Baltimore is a combined 6-6 in extra innings and one run games. Seattle is 11-4 in those situations. Look for the Mariners luck to take a hit in the near future. No time better than now. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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05-04-21 | Indians v. Royals UNDER 9 | 7-3 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
922 Cleveland at Kansas City Listed Henkes & Minor Both teams have struggled vs lefties this year, with KC posting a 84 wRC+, and the Tribe a 90 wRC+ vs southpaws. In his two previous starts against Cleveland Mike Minor has a 71 average game score with a 0.60 ERA. The Royals are 17-3 to the under vs lefty starters the past two seasons. PLAY UNDER |
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05-04-21 | Rangers +152 v. Twins | 6-3 | Win | 152 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
919 Texas at Minnesota Listed Gibson & Happ Both starters have been tremendous so far this season, surprising many. Butwe trust the changes Kyle Gibson has made more than what Happens has accomplished. The Rangers are 9-4 on the season vs lefties, and have s runs overall in their last three games. The offense is getting healthy and this team has been a credible 6-8 on the highway. Give us the visitor in what we see as an over inflated favorite. PLAY TEXAS |
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05-04-21 | Nets +2 v. Bucks | 118-124 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
505 Brooklyn at Milwaukee The Nets have some shooting advantages in this game that the Bucks are weak defending. Brooklyn is 2nd in the league shooting from distance, but Milwaukee ranks 26th defending the perimeter. The Nets are also 2nd in the league shooting mid-range shots, and the Bucks rank 22nd defending from that range. In the half court Brooklyn is #1 in points per play, but Milwaukee ranks 21st defending in the half court. That’s enough to get us to the window with the Nets. PLAY BROOKLYN |
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05-03-21 | Indians v. Royals +103 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 60 m | Show |
964 Cleveland at Kansas City Listed Civile and Lynch Aaron Civale came into the season highly thought of. And overall he has been good, but his two best performances were against the light hitting Tigers. He is opposing Daniel Lynch, a hot shot lefty making his Major League debut. The Indians are 5-7 on the season vs left-handed starters, and rank 28th overall in wRC+. The Royals rank 14th in WRC+ and are 11-5 vs right-handed starters. With an 8-5 home record and coming off a blowout loss at Minnesota, we expect the host to win this one. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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05-02-21 | Marlins +149 v. Nationals | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 15 m | Show | |
901 Miami at Washington Listed Rogers & Scherzer Both starters have produced 59 game scores their past seven starts. But Rogers has better numbers this season. Sure he has been helped by allowing just one homer in 28 innings, but his stuff is legit. We also prefer the Marlin’s bullpen as Washington continues to struggle in the late innings. The Nationals are just 2-4 on the season facing lefty starters. PLAY MIAMI |
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05-01-21 | Kings v. Ducks +119 | 2-6 | Win | 119 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
26 Los Angeles at Anaheim The Kings are 4-3 in this series in 2021, and are off a victory in this building last night. But Anaheim was the better team last night, and yet the line has risen overnight. The Kings believe they are still in playoff mode but we’re not buying it. Because of the must win situation we are getting value on the Ducks. This is the final home game of the season for Anaheim who finishes the season with touch games at St Louis and Minnesota. After dropping 3 of 4 against the Kings the past two weeks, we expect a strong effort from the host on Saturday. PLAY ANAHEIM |
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05-01-21 | Giants +164 v. Padres | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
963 San Francisco at San Diego Listed DeSclafani & Snell We talked about Anthony DeSclafani last time out before he had a complete game shutout. He has been terrific in his career when not pitching in the launchpad of Great American Ballpark. In his last five starts against the Padres he has an average game score of 60 with a 2.17 ERA. His game scores this season have been 56, 67, 64, 42 and 89, with the league average being 50. The Giants are 7-3 on the season vs lefties. Nice value here on the road team which ranks higher in the standings. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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05-01-21 | Stars +100 v. Predators | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
21 Dallas at Nashville The Stars are playing their second of a season ending seven game road trip. Coming off a 3-0 loss at Tampa Bay. They are only 3-4 vs Nashville but all four losses came in overtime or a shootout. Dallas is built for regulation play as they have been bad when being extended. Off a shutout loss and playing with revenge we prefer Dallas in this contest. PLAY DALLAS |
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05-01-21 | Dodgers v. Brewers +114 | 5-6 | Win | 114 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
960 Los Angeles at Milwaukee Listed May & Woodruff Can’t pass up the chance to play Brandon Woodruff as a home underdog. He has a 1.55 ERA on the season, and 1.48 ERA with an average game score of 69 in his last seven outings. The Dodgers are 10-6 on the season vs right handed starters, the Brewers 15-9 vs the same. The Dodgers have dropped 7 of 9 as of late with 7 of those 9 games coming at home. Don’t trust the Dodgers as a road favorite right now. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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05-01-21 | Penguins v. Capitals -108 | 3-0 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
6 Pittsburgh at Washington Quick revenge game for the Capitals who dropped a 5-4 overtime decision to the Penguins on Thursday. Pittsburgh has taken five of seven in this series. But we have these two rated virtually identical. With Washington in revenge and at home, the value is on the Capitals. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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04-30-21 | Golden Knights -186 v. Coyotes | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -186 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
73 Vegas at Arizona Somewhat surprised by the value on the Knights here, based on the team with the league wide highest winning streak this season. Sure Vegas is off that key game with Colorado, but what have they shown to not be a substantial favorite here? Vegas is 16-7-0 on the road this season, while Arizona is only 11-10-3 at home. The Knights are on a 7-1 run away from home, and are 5-1 vs the Coyotes on the year. In 5x5 G+-/60 the Knights rank 2nd and the Coyotes rank 21st. In xG/60 We find Vegas at +0.42 and Arizona -0.25. On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Knights rank 18th and the Coyotes 23rd. In xG/60 Vegas is +7.13 and Arizona +4.79. A huge advantage for the visitor. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Vegas ranks 2nd and Arizona 18th. In xG/60 we find the Knights -5.33 and the Coyotes -7.71. Another major advantage for the visitor. We played Dallas at Detroit in this price range earlier, and the Stars completely dominated the game. They had to go to overtime to win, but the stats showed it was a complete mismatch. This looks like the strongest road favorite value on the season, despite having to lay close to -200. This line should be much higher. PLAY VEGAS |
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04-30-21 | Cardinals v. Pirates +103 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 34 m | Show |
902 St Louis at Pittsburgh Listed Gant & Brubaker On the season these two clubs have been almost identical offensively with St Louis ranking 22nd with a 90 wRC+ and Pittsburgh at 23rd with the same wRC+. John Gant has a 48 average game score his last seven starts, while JT Brubaker is averaging a 57 game score in his previous seven. Gant has been very fortunate in his young career allowing just 5 home runs in 101.1 innings of work. His advanced stats show his barrel % to be a career high of 8.9, while his fly ball % is 21.4, also a career high. Last year he was a major ground ball pitcher with 66.7% of his pitches being beaten into the ground, but his lifetime marks suggest something in the range of 47.8%. He throws the sinker 51% of the time as compared to 39% last year. So he’s throwing his best pitch more, but he’s getting less success with it. This year his WOBA on that pitch is .325, while last year it was .205. We expect some negative regression. The Pirates had yesterday off which is an offensive advantage. JT Brubaker has been terrific thus far as he was a standout coming into the season. His barrel rate is 2% lower than Gant, and he is at a 59% ground ball rate. His walk percentage is 5.5, much better than Gant’s 14.8. So we have a rested team, with a superior starter who has better advanced stats in virtually every category. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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04-29-21 | Flames v. Oilers -122 | 3-1 | Loss | -122 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
62 Calgary at Edmonton Used the Oilers last night and we were rewarded with basically a wire to wire winner. Edmonton has won 5 of the 8 meetings this season. The Oilers are also a strong 5-2 playing in the second game of a back to back situation. Edmonton has a whopping 2.4 xG/60 advantage on the Power Play. But Calgary is better on the Penalty Kill by 1.7 xG/60. We firmly believe other than Toronto, that Edmonton is the only quality team is this division. We will put our money on that opinion tonight. PLAY EDMONTON |
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04-29-21 | Flyers -127 v. Devils | 3-5 | Loss | -127 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
51 Philadelphia at New Jersey Not often we are looking to back the Flyers as a road favorite, but we just can’t ignore the numbers. Philadelphia is a very respectable 12-10-3 on the road, New Jersey is a poor 5-17-3 at home. Philadelphia has won 3 of 4 meetings this year, with the lone loss coming two days ago. In 5x5 G+-/60 the Flyers rank 22nd and the Devils 17th. In xG/60 Philadelphia is -0.02 and New Jersey is exactly even. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Philadelphia ranks 24th and New Jersey 29th. In xG/60 we find the Flyers at +5.91 and the Devils +4.66. A sizable advantage to the visitor. Playing Short Handed these are the two worst teams in the league in G+-/60. Philadelphia ranks 30th and New Jersey 31st. In xG/60 we find the Flyers -6.32 and the Devils -7.53. A much larger advantage for Philadelphia as opposed to the actual goals. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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04-29-21 | Phillies v. Cardinals UNDER 7 | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 1 h 19 m | Show | |
952 Philadelphia at St Louis Listed Nola and Kim Kim has allowed just 3 earned runs in 23.2 innings of work in his short career at home here in St Louis. Because of the terrible injury to Brice Harper this Phillies offense is loaded with bench players. After the top four hitters we are seeing Herrera, Kingery, Quinn and Maton hitting above the pitcher. That is a very weak lineup that can be pitched around. In his last seven starts Kim has an average game score of 58. Aaron Nola has owned the Cardinals as of late with an average game score of 70 in his last five against them, with a 1.78 ERA. His last seven starts overall have an average game score of 56. After scoring 11 and 13 runs the past two games, it’s time for the pitching to shine. PLAY UNDER |
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04-28-21 | Oilers -107 v. Jets | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 41 m | Show | |
41 Edmonton at Winnipeg In 5x5 play in G+-/60 the Oilers rank 15th and the Jets 17th. In xG/60 we see Edmonton is -0.01 and Winnipeg -0.29. On the Power Play in G+-/60 we find both teams faring well as the Oilers rank 2nd and the Jets 5th. In xG/60 Edmonton is +7.79 and Winnipeg +6.55. A nice edge for the visitor. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Oilers rank 25th and the Jets 10th. In xG/60 Edmonton is -7.42 and Winnipeg -7.19. Much closer than the actual goals suggest. The Oilers have been solid on the road all season winning 14 of 23 games, Winnipeg has struggled a bit at home winning 11 of 24. The Edmonton speed has led them to winning six of the eight meetings this season. Look for that strength to be the difference here. PLAY EDMONTON |
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04-28-21 | Cubs v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 0-10 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
906 Chicago at Atlanta Listed Hendricks & Ynoa The Cubs enter this game with a 91 wRC+ on the season. Atlanta comes in at 98, an average score would be 100, so both offenses have underperformed. These pitchers have faced this opponent once already this year with bad results. Hendricks had a 19 game score allowing seven earned runs in only four innings. Ynoa had a 28 game score allowing six earned runs in four innings. But both of those games have been outliers on the season resumes. The other Hendricks starts had game scores of 40, 69 and 57. The other Ynoa starts were 67, 71 and 64. Both these starters are much better than what they showed against these hitters earlier. With neither team knocking the cover off the ball, we look for a solid pitchers duel. PLAY UNDER |
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04-28-21 | Blues v. Wild -135 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -135 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
38 St Louis at Minnesota Many will look at this as a must win for the Blues, who are fighting off Arizona to make the playoffs. But Minnesota only sits a point behind Colorado and five behind Vegas for the divisional title. St Louis is off back to back upsets of the Avalanche, and face Minnesota five times down the stretch. In 5x5 play in G+-/60 the Blues rank 19th and the Wild 6th. In xG/60 we find St Louis -0.31 and Minnesota +0.12. On the Power Play St Louis ranks 6th and Minnesota 20th in G+-/60. In xG/60 we see the Blues +5.87 and the Wild 5.84. Much closer than the actual goals would suggest. Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 the Blues rank 28th and the Wild 6th. In xG/60 we find St Louis -7.98 and Minnesota -4.91. A major advantage for the host. St Louis has been a solid 12-8-2 on the road this year, but the Wild has been an outstanding 17-4-0 in this building. Let’s lay it with the far better team. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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04-27-21 | Panthers -108 v. Predators | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
29 Florida at Nashville Because of time constraints today we will need to keep this analysis short and sweet. Florida has a .4 xG/60 advantage skating 5x5. The Panthers have a huge 1.4 goals advantage on the power play. The penalty kill is very close with Nashville actually having a slight edge. Florida has won 4 of the 7 meetings, but was pounded yesterday 4-1. Look for the better team to bounce back tonight with a solid victory. PLAY FLORIDA |
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04-27-21 | Phillies v. Cardinals -103 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
956 Philadelphia at St Louis Listed Eflin & Martinez Over the years Carlos Martinez has fared well against the Phillies, but 11 days ago he posted a 36 game score. Allowing six earned runs in five innings. That was his worst start of the young season. His last time out he threw a 62 game score at the Nationals. Zach Eflin beat St Louis and Martinez in that game 9-2, throwing a nice 63 game score. But home Eflin and road Eflin have been two different things. In his last six road starts he has game scores of 43, 66, 32, 47, 41 and 29, an average of 43. Keep in mind league average is 50. When looking at the Statcast data from last year to this year, we are deeply troubled. Checking his velocity his 4 seam fastball is down 1.5 mph, and his sinker is down 1.8 mph. His solid hit percentage is a career high 11.5. Eflin’s fly ball percentage of 32.1 is also a career high. Philadelphia is just 2-7 on the road heading into Monday night. Look for the Cards bats to reverse the earlier 9-2 loss with a solid victory in this competitively priced game. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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04-26-21 | Mariners +160 v. Astros | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
921 Seattle at Houston Listed Sheffield & Urquidy Eight days ago the Mariners ended a three game series with Houston at home, outscoring the Astros 13 to 8 in taking two of three. They faced Urquidy just ten days ago. When comparing the two starters they are very similar with average games scores of 54 each the past seven overall starts. What has been so impressive about Justus Sheffield is that six of his last seven starts have produced game scores of 58, 63, 59, 52, 61 and 52. All consistently above league average. The Mariners are 10-5 vs righty starters while Houston is 5-6 vs lefties on the season. Seattle is 7-4 on the road and Houston is 4-6 at home. Yes, Houston has the better talent, but this line looks extremely inflated. Plenty of value on the confident underdog Mariners here. PLAY SEATTLE |
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04-26-21 | Hurricanes -119 v. Stars | 3-4 | Loss | -119 | 22 h 16 m | Show | |
3 Carolina at Dallas The Stars are coming off six games against the weak competition of Detroit and Columbus. Against the top three teams in the division Carolina, Florida and Tampa Bay, the Stars are 4-14 on the season. Carolina just split on the road at Tampa Bay and Florida, and end the month vs the Stars and Red Wings. This is the fourth game of a six game road trip, but every game is important right now for Carolina. In 5x5 play in G+-/60 the Hurricanes rank 8th and the Stars 13th. In xG/60 we see Carolina +0.43 and Dallas +0.28. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Carolina ranks 1st and Dallas 9th. In xG/60 we see the Hurricanes +6.00 and the Stars +6.62. So Dallas is due for some positive regression. Playing Short Handed is where the visitor has a sizable advantage. In 5x5 G+-/60 Carolina ranks 2nd and Dallas 20th. In xG/60 the Hurricanes are -3.85 and the Stars -6.05. With the Stars struggles against the elite, look for Carolina to bounce back from blowing a late lead in Florida. PLAY CAROLINA |
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04-26-21 | Avalanche -155 v. Blues | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -155 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
69 Colorado at St Louis Important game for the Avalanche who are now trailing the red hot Golden Knights. Neither team wants to have to face Minnesota in the first round, so clinching first place is extremely big in this division. In 5x5 play in G+-/60 Colorado ranks 1st and St Louis 19th. In xG/60 we find the Avalanche +0.90 and the Blues -0.30. A full 1.2 goals better in 60 minutes of 5x5 play. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Colorado ranks 4th and St Louis 8th. In xG/60 the Avalanche are +7.96 and the Blues +5.86. Over two full goals per 60 minutes of power play time. Playing Short Handed the Avalanche rank 8th and the Blues 28th in G+-/60. In xG/60 Colorado is -5.06 and St Louis -6.53. Basically a 1 1/2 goal per 60 minutes advantage for the visitor. Colorado is 5-2 in this series and are off a loss. Look for the much better team to get the victory on Monday. PLAY COLORADO |
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04-25-21 | Brewers -122 v. Cubs | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 3 h 59 m | Show | |
957 Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs Listed Woodruff & Arrieta Brandon Woodruff has been outstanding against the Cubs, with a 67 average game score and a 1.84 ERA in his last five starts against them. In his last seven starts overall he has a 66 average game score and a 2.06 ERA. In looking at the Statcast data his velocity is up slightly and he has taken more off his off speed pitches. Jake Arrieta has struggled against the Brewers with a 5.53 ERA and 46 average game score in his last five. To his credit he has pitched well this year, but not to the level of today’s mound opponent. The Brewers are 12-8 on the season vs righty starters, the Cubs 4-10. Milwaukee has been excellent on the road with an 8-3 mark. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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04-25-21 | Royals -111 v. Tigers | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 2 h 46 m | Show | |
971 Kansas City at Detroit Listed Duffy & Fulmer Danny Duffy has added velocity so far this season, a major source of his success. His 4 seam fastball is up 1.6 mph, his slider 1.3 mph, and his off speed pitches are slower. Which is a nice combination for the Royals lefty. Michael Fulmer looks healthy this year which is great for this once promising starter. But in his two starts he has only thrown 78 and 60 pitches as the brass is looking to ease him in to a full workload. The Tigers are only 1-5 on the season vs lefty starters, and have scored two or less runs in 6 of its last 7 games. The Royals are playing the much better ball right now and are worth a look at this cheap price. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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04-24-21 | Rangers +150 v. White Sox | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
927 Texas at Chicago WS Listed Gibson & Keuchel Kyle Gibson has had a great deal of success against Chicago with an average game score of 55 in his last five starts against them. The last four has been even more impressive with starts of 45, 62, 71 and 66. In his last three starts overall this season he has been outstanding with scores of 80, 64 and 67. He made pitching changes in the off-season and his 2.53 ERA this year is proof. Dallas Keuchel has struggled a bit out of the gate with game scores of 32, 47, 49 and 48 in this young season. All starts worse than the league average of 50. The Rangers are 6-3 vs lefty starters this year, while the Sox are 6-8 vs righties. Texas is also a solid 6-5 on the road. The Texas bats have erupted for 22 runs its past four games, look for that to continue with this solid underdog. PLAY TEXAS |
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04-24-21 | Stars -190 v. Red Wings | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
47 Dallas at Detroit Not many times will we recommend a team as an away favorite in this price range. But a look at the stats shows this line should be much higher. In 5x5 G+-/60 Dallas ranks 13th and Detroit 24th. In xG/60 we find the Stars +0.23 and the Red Wings -0.26. So about 1/2 goal advantage for the visitor in a full 60 minutes of 5x5 play. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Dallas ranks 7th and Detroit 30th. In xG/60 the Stars are +6.47 and the Red Wings +4.31. Over two goals per 60 minutes advantage on the Power Play. Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 the Stars rank 20th and the Red Wings 29th. In xG/60 Dallas is -6.14 and Detroit is -6.55. Major advantages across the board for the Stars, along with revenge for an embarrassing 7-3 loss on Thursday. Dallas has won 5 of the 7 games played between these two this season. The Stars worst goal prevention on the season was allowing five goals twice. Now off a seven goal effort look for Dallas to clamp down majorly on Saturday. PLAY DALLAS |
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04-24-21 | Angels +132 v. Astros | 2-16 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 21 m | Show | |
919 LA Angels at Houston Listed Canning & Odorizzi These clubs have split the season series the past two years. The loss of Mike Trout for the Angels is big, but not nearly as large as this line would suggest. Keep in mind the excellent Houston closer Pressly had to throw two innings and 29 pitches last night, so that likely loss is large as well. Griffin Canning has a 55 average game score in his last seven starts, Jake Odorizzi is a 46. Just this season Canning has posted 52 and 50 game scores, Odorizzi 30 and 45. Each team is struggling lately having lost 7 of 10 games. The Angels are 8-6 vs righties while the Astros are 4-4. This line is simply too high. PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS |
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04-23-21 | Phillies +111 v. Rockies | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
959 Philadelphia at Colorado Action Normally we list pitchers but in this case we will be looking to bet on the offenses as opposed to whomever starts. It’s likely a bullpen game for the Phillies and we are OK with that. Our numbers have the Rockies as the worst team in baseball. This is the least talented team in the league. They are 6-12 on the season, including 3-10 vs right handed starters. And yet, they are favored over one of the most potent lineups in the National League. Throw out the pitching here and just give us the better team, as an underdog no less. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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04-23-21 | Predators -123 v. Blackhawks | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
35 Nashville at Chicago We were extremely lucky to cash with the Blackhawks on Wednesday, as the Preds completely outplayed them. While we are not giving the money back, we had a wrong side winner in that contest. In 5x5 G+-/60 Nashville ranks 18th and Chicago 8th. In xG/60 the Preds are -0.01 and the Blackhawks come in at -0.40. On the Power Play in G+-/60 we find Nashville ranking 20th and Chicago 13th. In xG/60 the Predators are +4.92 and the Blackhawks are +5.06. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Nashville ranks 28th and Chicago 26th. In xG/60 we see the Preds -5.95 and the Blackhawks -5.71. The Predators have won 5 of 6 meetings this year and should have won Wednesday. They bounce back here in a big way. PLAY NASHVILLE |
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04-22-21 | Senators +125 v. Canucks | Top | 3-0 | Win | 125 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
27 Ottawa at Vancouver Going unnoticed by the casual fan, the Senators are playing well right now. Coming off a 4-2 road win at Calgary along with a 4-0 victory at Montreal. Previously they spit a two game home series with Winnipeg, outscoring them 6-5. And they also took Toronto to the wire in a 6-5 loss on the road. In 5x5 G+-/60 Vancouver ranks 19th and Ottawa 31st. But in xG/60 in 5x5 action the Canucks are -0.46 and the Senators -0.33. So positive regression is in store for the visitor. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Ottawa ranks 28th and Vancouver 25th. In xG/60 we see the Senators +5.25 and the Canucks +5.61. Playing Short Handed the Senators are 18th, and the Canucks 21st in G+-/60. In xG/60 we find Ottawa -6.38 and Vancouver -7.36. A major advantage for the visitor. Vancouver is 5-0 on the season vs Ottawa, but these teams aren’t the same as they were in January. The last two meetings in March were both decided after regulation. Look for Ottawa to get the nice underdog victory tonight. PLAY OTTAWA |
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04-22-21 | Maple Leafs -128 v. Jets | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
81 Toronto at Winnipeg Getting nice value on the far better team here. If this game had been played two weeks ago the Maple Leafs would have likely been a -160 favorite. But because of this poor run we are finding the superior team at a great price. In 5x5 G+-/60 Toronto ranks 5th and Winnipeg 14th. In xG/60 the Leafs are +0.51, and the Jets -0.29. A sizable advantage for the visitor. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Toronto ranks 8th and Winnipeg 4th. When looking at the advanced stat of xG/60 the Leafs are +7.90 and the Jets +6.51. So major positive regression is in store for Toronto. Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 the Leafs rank 23rd and the Jets 12th. In xG/60 we find Toronto -4.83 and Winnipeg -6.49. A huge advantage for Toronto over the actual goals scored. We have the much better team with a major chip on their shoulders. Look for a terrific effort out of the visitor. PLAY TORONTO |
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04-21-21 | Predators v. Blackhawks +104 | 4-5 | Win | 104 | 24 h 44 m | Show | |
2 Nashville at Chicago In 5x5 play in G+-/60 Nashville ranks 15th and Chicago 21st. In xG/60 we find the Predators -0.05 and the Blackhawks -0.37. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Nashville ranks 20th and Chicago 13th. In xG/60 we find the Preds +5.00 and the Blackhawks +5.15. Playing Short Handed the Predators rank 28th and Chicago 27th in G+-/60. In xG/60 we find Nashville -6.08 and Chicago -5.81. So the stats show these two to be completely equal on the season. Nashville is 11-12-1 on the road, Chicago is 11-8-2 at home. The Preds are playing in its fourth different city in the past five games. Coming off a 5-2 home win over Chicago on Monday. Nashville has beaten Chicago all six meetings this season. So now we get the Blackhawks at home as an underdog. The numbers show these two to be even, and yet Nashville has come out on top every meeting. We don’t buy the dominance, give us the Blackhawks as a small home dog. PLAY CHICAGO |
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04-21-21 | Braves +121 v. Yankees | Top | 4-1 | Win | 121 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
975 Atlanta at NY Yankees Listed Anderson & Kluber We’ve faded Corey Kluber before and we have seen no reason to stop. Going back to the year 2015 his highest barrel percentage allowed was 8.9 in 2019. It’s currently 15.6%. His highest exit velocity was 87.9, it’s now 90.7, and he’s only had 32 batted balls against him. He’s been very lucky as the 2021 launch angle is only 6.6 degrees, it’s normally twice that since 2015. Ian Anderson is clearly the better starter at this point in their careers. In hard hit percentage the Yankees rank 28th and the Braves 13th. Looking at wRC+ we find the Yankees ranking 26th and Atlanta 9th. Better hitting, stronger starting pitching, and an underdog. Count us in. PLAY ATLANTA |
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04-20-21 | Cardinals v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
903 St Louis at Washington Listed Wainwright & Corbin Both of these starters have really struggled in the early part of the season. Wainwright has had game scores of 20, 57 and 48. The Cardinals are just 2-5 his last seven starts. Corbin has been even worse. With game scores of 29 and 3 in his only two starts. Washington has now lost seven straight Corbin starts dating back to last year. He was great in 2019 but in the past two seasons he has allowed 49 earned runs in 72 innings of work. He is allowing a whopping 52% hard hit rate, to go along with a 17.5 BB%. These two teams rank 11th and 13th on the season in hard hit % offensively. We look for this to be a high scoring affair. PLAY OVER |
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04-20-21 | White Sox v. Indians +105 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
912 Chicago WS at Cleveland Listed Rodon & Plesac Quick rematch of the Rodon no-hitter with a venue change. We usually look to fade a pitcher off the emotional high, and it’s especially true after the injury battles Carlos Rodon had to go through to get to where he is now. It was a great story, but we have to move on to the next game. Plesac was bombed in that game as he simply didn’t pitch well. The last time he had a game anywhere near that result he pitched an 87 game score his next outing. We all know the Sox rake against lefties, with a 4-1 record this season. But they are only 4-8 on the year vs righties. Looking at hard hit rate Cleveland ranks 7th and Chicago 19th. Yet the White Sox have an 18% better wRC+. That means Cleveland is hitting better than the actual runs scored would suggest. With the Indians 4-1 at home this year, and the embarrassment of being no-hit, we will back the Tribe as an underdog today. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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04-19-21 | Wild v. Coyotes +131 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 24 m | Show | |
44 Minnesota at Arizona After three straight wins at home Minnesota now travels for four straight on the road. They have won 5 of 6 on the season in this series. The Coyotes played eight straight away from home, before returning ti Phoenix with a 3-2 win over the red hot Blues on Saturday. In 5x5 play in G+-/60 we find the Wild ranking 11th and the Coyotes 21st. In xG/60 it’s Minnesota at +0.16 and Arizona -0.24. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Minnesota ranks 25th and Arizona 22nd. In xG/60 the Wild are +5.77 and the Coyotes +4.55. So positive regression is in store for the Wild. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Minnesota ranks 5th and the Coyotes 18th. In xG/60 it’s the Wild -4.59 and the Coyotes -7.99. A major advantage for the visitor. While the numbers show Minnesota to be the better team, the spot favors the host. The Wild is great at home but just mediocre on the road at 10-9-3. At 11-8-3 for the Coyotes at home, we find value in a must win game for Arizona. The Coyotes are barely handing on to the final playoff spot in this division, with a one point lead over St Louis. PLAY ARIZONA |
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04-19-21 | Blackhawks +125 v. Predators | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 30 m | Show | |
41 Chicago at Nashville The Blackhawks are looking for their first win of the season against the Preds. Three of the games were lost by a single goal. In 5x5 G+-/60 Chicago ranks 8th and the Predators 18th. In xG/60 the Blackhawks are -0.37, while Nashville is -0.05. So much closer than the actual goals scored would suggest. On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Blackhawks are ranked 12th and the Preds 18th. In xG/60 Chicago is +5.21 and Nashville +5.17. Neither teams is good on the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 with Chicago ranking 28th and Nashville 27th. In xG/60 we find the Blackhawks -6.02, and the Preds -6.17. We have these two rated virtually even, so there is really no reason why Nashville has won the first five meetings. Look for Chicago to get in the win column here. PLAY CHICAGO |
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04-18-21 | Cardinals +166 v. Phillies | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 35 m | Show | |
901 St Louis at Philadelphia Listed Gant & Nola Simply put, this line is way too high to back the Phillies. St Louis is 5-3 on the road while Philadelphia is 6-2 at home. The Cards scored nine times against this Philly pitching staff yesterday. With the bullpen throwing 120 pitches. In hard hit rate the Cards rank 16th and the Phillies 21st. In wRC+ the Cards are 16th and the Phillies 27th. So this line all comes down to the starting pitchers. Gott has a 47 average game score his last seven starts, Nola comes in at 52 in the same time frame. In his career Gant has a 46 average game score against Philadelphia, Nola has a 62 against St Louis. While those numbers clearly point to the Phillies starter, it’s not nearly as dominant as this line would suggest. Plenty of value on the road team on Sunday. PLAY ST LOUIS |