Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-13-21 | Oregon State v. Colorado -8 | 70-68 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
632 Oregon State & Colorado This is not a good scheduling spot for the Beavers. First off they are playing their third game in three days. After being beaten pretty badly by in-state rival Oregon to end the season. They somehow beat UCLA in overtime to open up the tournament. The advanced stats showed the Bruins to be the more dominant team in that game, so Oregon State was very fortunate. Then last night the Beavers gained revenge on heated rival Oregon. Now they take on a Colorado team that beat them by a combined 33 points in their two losses. Colorado has been tested in their two tourney contests, winning by margins of 2 and 3 points. The spot screams Buffaloes and the line is a bit cheap. PLAY COLORADO |
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03-13-21 | Georgetown +8.5 v. Creighton | 73-48 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
619 Georgetown & Creighton This line suggests that the Hoyas are going to run out of gas playing its fourth game in four days. But Creighton is playing its third game in three games as well. But our estimation Georgetown is being penalized by three points in this line because of the rest or lack of situation. But these are still young kids with a chance to win the tournament championship, so we aren’t concerned to that degree. These two split the season series with the Hoyas winning 86-79 on the road, and losing 63-48 at home. Georgetown was 5-10 on the season at one point and have run off a nice 7-2 record since. As much as we like this Creighton team, this line is simply too high. Give us the upstart Hoyas plus the points. PLAY GEORGETOWN |
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03-13-21 | Morgan State +2.5 v. Norfolk State | 63-71 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 15 m | Show | |
307503 Morgan State & Norfolk State The Bears faced Norfolk State four times this season, losing three of those meetings. But all four games were decided by five points or less. When we look deeper, we find Morgan State actually outplayed the Spartans in three of those games, when looking at the advanced shooting stats. The Spartans have the advantage of being rested in this contest. But keep in mind in the 87-58 win over North Carolina Central in the opening round, the advanced stats show it was the best game of the season for this squad. After a blowout win, with a rest advantage, and playing a team you beat three of four matchups, the Spartans are not only overpriced here, they are fat and happy. Not who we want to put our money on. Give us Morgan State. PLAY MORGAN STATE |
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03-12-21 | Cavs +7 v. Pelicans | Top | 82-116 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
527 Cleveland at New Orleans The Cavaliers were playing solid ball before the All-Star Break, and could be fully healthy for the first time all season tonight. Larry Nance Jr is back in action after having hand surgery. Also Garland and Love have been updated to questionable. Kevin Love is still a quality player when he is able to stay healthy, and he and Garland both practiced fully yesterday. New Orleans does one thing well, crash the offensive glass. But Cleveland is a team that is built to keep the opposition off the glass, especially if Love gets some minutes tonight. Cleveland is the fresher team and didn’t have anyone participating in the weekend festivities. Great spot for the Cavaliers to take this to the wire. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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03-12-21 | Missouri +4.5 v. Arkansas | 64-70 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
831 Missouri & Arkansas The Tigers have fallen on tough times as of late after winning 13 of 16 to start the season. Since then Missouri has gone 3-5 including an overtime loss to Arkansas in mid-February. But a closer looks shows that this team has matched up very well with the Razorbacks. The first meeting was an 81-68 road win that was very impressive. The overtime loss showed Missouri outplayed the opposition when looking at the advanced stats. Arkansas is the hot team right now winning 11 of 12, but this line has been bet up off the opener. We have an overpriced hot favorite against a team that many feel is an afterthought. Yeah, that’s the type of underdog we can play with confidence. PLAY MISSOURI |
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03-12-21 | Oklahoma State v. Baylor -9 | 83-74 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
856 Oklahoma State & Baylor So this is how the Cowboys used to feel like after committing an armed robbery. Our advanced stats show that Oklahoma State should have lost its last six games, yet they have posted a 5-1 record. Wins by 5 in OT, 4 in OT, 4, 5 and 3 points. The only loss was an 11 point defeat to these Baylor Bears. The luck runs out for the Cowboys on Friday as it’s high noon against this superior Bears squad. Baylor hasn’t played exceptionally well as of late, and they clearly took for granted the Kansas State Wildcats last night. But now facing what many would call the hottest team in the country this side of Gonzaga, we expect this team to come out on a mission. After 15 and 11 point victories so far this season, you know Baylor won’t lack in confidence. PLAY BAYLOR |
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03-11-21 | Canadiens +102 v. Flames | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 6 m | Show | |
19 Montreal at Calgary Second of a back to back situation for the Canadiens who played last night in Vancouver. In 5x5 G+-/60 we find Montreal ranked 1st and Calgary 17th. In xG/60 The Canadiens are +0.60 and the Flames +0.12. A substantial edge for the visitor. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Montreal ranks 10th and Calgary 16th. Looking at xG/60 we find the Canadiens +5.62 and the Flames +4.87. Looking at the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Montreal ranks 9th and Calgary 15th. In the advanced stats of xG/60 we see the Canadiens -6.12 and the Flames -5.43. As Calgary has the expected advantage. With this game currently in the coin flip range we much prefer the Canadiens, even on the end of a back to back situation. Just haven’t seen much improvement for Calgary after the coaching change. PLAY MONTREAL |
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03-11-21 | Northern Arizona v. Eastern Washington -14.5 | 60-66 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 26 m | Show | |
722 Northern Arizona & Eastern Washington The Lumberjacks lost to Eastern Washington at home 80-64 in the only regular season meeting. They are coming off their most impressive advanced stats game of the season by beating Portland State yesterday. The reason was 12 of 16 offensively from downtown, while allowing only 6 of 30 from distance. Obviously we would expect some regression in those numbers, especially defensively where the Lumberjacks rank 320th in defending the perimeter. Eastern Washington was expected to win the Big Sky Conference, but started the season 3-6 after a tough non-conference schedule. Since then the Eagles have won 10 of 11. Major class difference here and in all truth Northern Arizona is a bad team. Look for the Eagles to name the score here. PLAY EASTERN WASHINGTON |
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03-11-21 | Jets v. Maple Leafs -174 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 13 m | Show | |
6 Winnipeg at Toronto In 5x5 action we find the G+-/60 rankings of Toronto 4th and Winnipeg 16th. Looking at the advanced stat of xG/60 we see the Leafs at +0.40 and the Jets at -0.35. So basically 3/4 of a goal advantage for the host in 5x5 play. Looking at the Power Play we see Toronto ranking 2nd in G+-/60, and Winnipeg 12th. In xG/60 the Leafs are +9.00, and the Jets +5.74. A huge advantage for the Maple Leafs. On the Penalty Kill neither team is especially good. Toronto ranking 24th in G+-/60 and Winnipeg 18th. In xG/60 Winnipeg is -6.20, and Toronto -4.67. So there is a bit of positive regression coming for Toronto. Let’s lay it with the Maple Leafs. PLAY TORONTO |
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03-11-21 | Morgan State -3 v. Florida A&M | 77-75 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 37 m | Show | |
307305 Morgan State & Florida A&M The Bears enter this game off an 82-75 loss to Delaware State. That came on the heels of a 92-67 win over the same opponent. But looking at the advanced stats in that last contest we see the Bears played the better game. So despite losing three of four heading into this tourney, the advanced shot numbers aren’t concerning. Florida A&M finished the season winning six of nine games. But upon closer inspection every one of those games came against teams ranked 296th and higher. The Rattlers are 1-7 straight up playing teams ranked higher than 296th. Morgan State is currently ranked 222nd. Give us the Bears in this one. PLAY MORGAN STATE |
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03-11-21 | Butler v. Creighton -10 | 56-87 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
698 Butler & Creighton The Bulldogs pulled off the shocker yesterday in overtime, likely knocking Xavier out of an at large bid. But while Butler claimed the victory, the advanced stats show they were extremely fortunate. And that’s the way the season has gone for this 10-14 team, that we have graded more like a six win club. Creighton just faced Butler in the last game of the regular season, and won 93-73 in a game they dominated. We are big fans of this Blue Jays team, a group we feel is a solid long shot candidate to win the big dance. That said, their stock took a hit with losses to Xavier and Villanova the last eight days of the regular season. Look for the better team to name the score here. PLAY CREIGHTON |
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03-11-21 | Seton Hall -1 v. St. John's | 77-69 | Win | 100 | 16 h 52 m | Show | |
695 Seton Hall & St Johns The Pirates enter the tourney having lost four straight and 7 of 11. The last time out Seton Hall lost at St Johns 81-71, in a game the advanced stats say should have gone the other way. They did beat the Johnnies 77-68 previously at home. So despite splitting the two games Seton Hall played the better ball in those two combined meetings. Despite the record differences coming into this contest, we have Seton Hall rated as the slightly better squad. Throw in the quick revenge aspect and the four game losing streak, and the spot screams Pirates. PLAY SETON HALL |
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03-10-21 | Canadiens -143 v. Canucks | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show | |
77 Montreal at Vancouver Looking at 5x5 G+-/60 we find Montreal the top ranked team in the league and Vancouver ranked 25th. In xG/60 the Canadiens dominate at +0.60, while the Canucks come in at -0.37. So basically based on 5x5 action Montreal is a full goal better than Vancouver. On the Power Play the rankings show Montreal 10th and the Canucks 24th in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Canadiens are +5.62 and the Canucks +5.41. Much closer than the actual outputs. On the Penalty Kill it’s much closer in the ranking of G+-/60 with the Canadiens 9th and the Canucks 14th. In xG/60 Montreal is -6.12 and Vancouver -7.04. The 5x5 advantage for the Canadiens cannot be ignored. Having the edge in all three categories put us clearly on the road team here. PLAY MONTREAL |
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03-10-21 | California v. Stanford -6.5 | Top | 76-58 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 6 m | Show |
636 California & Stanford The Bears have dropped 11 of 12 heading into the conference tournament. They have already lost twice to Stanford 76-70 and 70-55. In looking at the advanced stats those were two games California really wasn’t overly competitive. Stanford has dropped four straight heading into this tourney, with the last game being the worst advanced stats game of the season. An embarrassing 79-42 loss at USC. The Cardinal is facing a team they are extremely confident against, and they take out a can of whoop ass on the Bears tonight. PLAY STANFORD |
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03-10-21 | Kings -125 v. Ducks | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
75 Los Angeles at Anaheim In 5x5 G+-/60 LA ranks 21st and Anaheim 23rd. In xG/60 we find the Kings at -0.39 and the Ducks -0.27. On the Power Play in where there is a clear advantage for LA, ranking 5th and the Ducks coming in 30th in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Kings are +6.93 and the Ducks +5.97. So we can expect to see some regression in those expected numbers. On the Penalty Kill Los Angeles ranks 13th and Anaheim 17th in G+-/60. Looking at the advanced numbers we see xG/60 the Kings -6.20 and the Ducks -5.86. A slight edge to the host. While the numbers say this should be an even matchup, we can’t ignore the Kings improvement since the start of the season. Give us the visitor to grab the victory here. PLAY LOS ANGELES |
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03-10-21 | UTEP -2.5 v. Florida Atlantic | 70-76 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 28 m | Show | |
645 UTEP & Florida Atlantic The Miners had a four game winning streak stopped at Kansas on Thursday. But no doubt about it UTEP was the better team that day. In they had played anywhere else in the country UTEP would have won that game. It’s a shame certain big school teams get these type of breaks. What we do know is the Miners will come into this game with a load of confidence, and something to prove. Florida Atlantic is also playing good ball as of late, winning four straight. The last two games against Middle Tennessee State was their best back to back advanced stats games of the season. But in our mind they looked so good because of the competition, or lack there of. We will look to fade the overconfident Owls. PLAY UTEP |
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03-10-21 | Nebraska +7.5 v. Penn State | Top | 66-72 | Win | 100 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
639 Nebraska & Penn State The Cornhuskers are 7-19 but our numbers show them with a 9-17 record based on the advanced stats. We backed them last time out against Northwestern and had a nice cover. Are they a good team? No. But it all comes down to value when betting on sports. Penn State is 10-13 and off back to back wins over Minnesota and Maryland. But everyone is beating the Golden Gophers right now, and the Terrapins win wasn’t fully deserved. When looking at the advanced stats and shot selection, Maryland was the much better team. These two have played twice thus far and Penn State has outscored Nebraska 147-145. No way this line should be this high. PLAY NEBRASKA |
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03-10-21 | Coyotes v. Avalanche -191 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
74 Arizona at Colorado In G+-/60 5x5 play Arizona ranks 25th and Colorado 15th. In 5x5 xG/60 we find the Coyotes -0.18 and the Avalanche +0.45. On the Power Play in G+-/60 we see Arizona 21st and Colorado 9th. In xG/60 the Coyotes are +4.17 and the Avalanche +7.27. A large advantage for the host. On the Penalty Kill we find in G+-/60 Arizona is -9.05, and the Avalanche -5.46. Another huge edge for the host. Clearly Colorado is the better team and the special teams have a dominant advantage. PLAY COLORADO |
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03-10-21 | New Mexico v. Fresno State -7.5 | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 22 h 20 m | Show | |
624 New Mexico & Fresno State The Lobos program has fallen on hard times, with a 6-15 record on the season. The four Division 1 wins came against #195 Rice, #321 Dixie State, #298 San Jose State and #296 Air Force. They lost the second meeting against the later two by 12 and 7 points. Fresno State has an 11-11 record, but in looking at the advanced stats we grade the Bulldogs more as a 13 win team. While Fresno State has dropped two of three entering this contest, the advanced stats had them outplaying the opposition in all three games. That includes Boise State and Utah State to end the season. The Bulldogs are playing its best ball of the year, and should easily dispose of this Lobos squad. PLAY FRESNO STATE |
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03-10-21 | Marquette v. Georgetown +3 | 49-68 | Win | 100 | 18 h 5 m | Show | |
626 Marquette & Georgetown The Golden Eagles are off back to back wins over DePaul and Xavier, along with winning four of five overall. They beat Georgetown 64-60 in the only meeting, but the advanced shooting stats say the Hoyas were clearly the better team. Georgetown is a 9-12 team but our ratings have them more like an 11-10 team based on its schedule. The Hoyas are coming in off its worst advanced stats performance of the season, a 98-82 loss at Connecticut. Our numbers have this game as a toss up, so we will gladly take the underdog Hoyas in this matchup. PLAY GEORGETOWN |
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03-09-21 | Panthers -127 v. Blue Jackets | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 9 m | Show | |
61 Florida at Columbus In 5x5 G+-/60 we find Florida ranked 7th and Columbus 23rd. In xG/60 the Panthers are +0.35 and the Blue Jackets -0.30. A substantial edge for the visitor. On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Panthers rank 7th and the Blue Jackets come in 26th. Looking at the advanced stats we find Florida +7.50, Columbus +3.44. A huge advantage for the visitor. On the Power Play Florida ranks 21st in G+-/60, while Columbus ranks 18th. In xG/60 the Panthers are -6.22, and the Blue Jackets -5.47. So an edge here for the host. Overall Florida is the better team and the price is more than fair, give us the Panthers in this one. PLAY FLORIDA |
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03-09-21 | Oakland +2.5 v. Cleveland State | 69-80 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
823 Oakland & Cleveland State Somewhat surprised that Oakland is the underdog here based on recent play. The Golden Grizzlies only have a 12-17 record, but played a brutal non-conference slate. Games against Xavier, Toledo, Michigan, Purdue, Oklahoma State and Michigan State primed Greg Kampe’s team for this type of situation. We have this team ranked more as a 14 win team than the 12 win team that they are. Cleveland State on the other hand are 18-7 on the season, but are rated more like a 15 win team. Even last time out against Milwaukee they were very fortunate to grab the 71-65 victory. They outshot the Panthers from distance 8 of 17 to 3 of 17. Considering the Vikings rank 241st in the country in three point accuracy, we can’t expect them to repeat that performance. Wrong team favored here. PLAY OAKLAND |
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03-09-21 | Iona v. Quinnipiac +6 | Top | 72-48 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
814 Iona & Quinnipiac The Gaels ended the season in fine fashion sweeping Monmouth. They come in to this tourney after posting an 8-5 record on the regular season. The Bobcats beat Iona 74-70 in their only meeting, and we see no reason why they can’t do it again. Despite the 9-12 regular season record, the advanced shooting stats say this is a 13 win team. Quinnipiac deserved a better record based on shot selection for themselves and their opponents. They enter this contest off a 66-64 loss to St Peter’s, a game they outplayed the Peacocks. This line is too high as we have these two much closer in talent. PLAY QUINNIPIAC |
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03-08-21 | Northern Kentucky v. Oakland +1.5 | Top | 58-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
786 Northern Kentucky & Oakland The Norse have been very fortunate to have the 14-10 record they do. When factoring shot selection and advanced stats this team plays more like a 10 or 11 win team. Tuesday Northern Kentucky knocked off Detroit 70-69, but the game could have and probably should have turned out differently. They had a 42.4 offensive rebounding percentage, the fourth best of the season. They held Detroit to a second best 14.3 free throw rate. You have to tip your cap to the Golden Grizzlies who started the year playing Xavier, Toledo, Michigan, Purdue, Oklahoma State and Michigan State. This is not a team that will be intimidated by these surroundings. The advanced stats see this as a 14 win team, not the 11 win club that the current record shows. Oakland has a recent 7-2 record when playing teams ranked 200th and higher. The two losses were in double overtime. We have Northern Kentucky currently ranked 206th. PLAY OAKLAND |
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03-08-21 | Blues v. Sharks +141 | 2-3 | Win | 141 | 24 h 57 m | Show | |
80 St Louis at San Jose In 5x5 G+-/60 the Blues rank 12th and the Sharks 29th. Looking at xG/60 we find St Louis -0.02 and San Jose -0.12. Much closer than the actual results would suggest. On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Blues rank 11th while the Sharks are 24th. In xG/60 St Louis is +6.13, while San Jose is +5.95. Again much closer than the actual goal difference suggests. In Penalty Kill situations in G+-/60 St Louis ranks 25th and San Jose is 20th. In xG/60 we find the Blues -7.01 and the Sharks -5.50. Once again favoring the home underdog. The Blues have been a popular team to play on lately, but the advanced numbers disagree with that. Give us the Sharks at home off a shutout loss to the Golden Knights. PLAY SAN JOSE |
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03-08-21 | Golden Knights v. Wild +100 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
42 Vegas at Minnesota The Knights have the longest winning streak in the league, with the Wild contributing to that streak. But if you watched that series the games were much closer than the final scores would indicate. In G+-/60 in 5x5 play we find both teams having great success. The Knights rank 5th and the Wild 4th. In xG/60 in 5x5 play the Knights are +0.12 and the Wild +0.52. On the Power Play Vegas has a solid advantage in ranking at 19th to dead last 31st for the Wild. In xG/60 Vegas is +6.66 and Minnesota +6.10. Closer than the actual goals would suggest. On the Penalty Kill we find both teams having success. Vegas ranks 3rd and the Wild are 7th. In xG/60 the Knights are -5.23 and the Wild -4.42. So we can expect a better performance for the Wild. Give us the Wild here to get back into the win column, as Vegas is a bit fat and happy to trust them in the road favorite role. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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03-08-21 | Rider +6.5 v. Canisius | 78-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
791 Rider & Canisius The Broncos enter this contest with a 5-16 record on the season. An afterthought in many minds. But when we break this team down by the advanced stats we feel this is one of the most underrated teams in the country. Our numbers show this team plays more like an eight win club, that should be riding a three game winning streak into this contest. Off back to back losses to Monmouth, in which Rider deserved to win both. Canisius was limited to playing just 12 games in the regular season, posting a 7-5 mark. But our advanced numbers show them as more like a four win team. The Golden Griffins rank 297th in offensive effective field goal percentage, and 324th in three point shooting. No way this team should be favored by this number. PLAY RIDER |
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03-08-21 | Elon v. Hofstra -5 | 76-58 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
780 Elon & Hofstra The Phoenix knocked off James Madison yesterday, but the advanced stats say they didn’t deserve the win. Elon was just 8 of 25 from two point range. The Pride are the much better team although end of season records wouldn’t agree. Based on the shots taken and the results, Hofstra should have 15 wins, not the 13 they achieved. Thus Pride offense is clearly the better of the two, and the line is right where we can take advantage. PLAY HOFSTRA |
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03-07-21 | Capitals -106 v. Flyers | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
33 Washington at Philadelphia Now that the Flyers are coming off a major rivalry series with the Penguins. We can continue to fade one of the most overrated teams in the league. In 5x5 G+-/60 the Capitals rank 10th and the Flyers 9th. In xG/60 we find Washington at +0.10 and Philadelphia -0.07. On the Power Play both teams are mediocre. Washington ranking 14th and Philadelphia 17th. The Capitals are +6.03 in xG/60 and the Flyers are +5.93. On the Penalty Kill Washington has a huge lead in the rankings at 12th to 28th. In xG/60 we find the Capitals -5.42 and the Flyers -7.14. It’s clear Washington is the better team when looking at the stats. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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03-07-21 | Panthers +130 v. Hurricanes | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
29 Florida at Carolina Big fans of both these teams but the line is just too large not to look at the visitor. In 5x5 G+-/60 Florida ranks 6th to 8th for the Hurricanes. In xG/60 we find the Panthers +0.41 and the Hurricanes +0.28. These are two of the best when looking at the Power Play. Florida ranks 5th and Carolina 1st in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Panthers are +7.89 and the Hurricanes +7.07. So once again an edge for the visitor. On the Penalty Kill Florida ranks 22nd with the Hurricanes 10th tin G+-/60. In looking deeper we have Florida -6.51 and Carolina -4.18 in xG/60, so the clear edge is with Carolina. These two are virtually equal in our ratings, with home ice being next to nothing right now we will take the plus price with Florida. PLAY FLORIDA |
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03-07-21 | Lightning -195 v. Blackhawks | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
27 Tampa Bay at Chicago In 5x5 G+-/60 Tampa ranks 2nd and Chicago 21st. Looking at the advanced stats we see the Lightning at +0.21 and the Blackhawks at -0.22. On the Power Play Tampa ranks 7th and Chicago 4th in G+-/60. in xG/60 we find the Lightning +6.37 and Chicago +6.02. So puck luck has been in the favor of the Blackhawks thus far. On the Penalty Kill Toronto has a huge ranking edge in G+-/60 of 2nd to 21st. Looking at xG/60 we see Tampa with -4.42 and Chicago -6.14. A sizable difference. With Chicago going all out for the victory Friday, we look for the Lightning to grab this one. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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03-07-21 | Nebraska +7 v. Northwestern | Top | 78-79 | Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
737 Nebraska at Northwestern It’s been an ugly season for the Cornhuskers, but they had been playing more competitive at least until Thursday. That’s when they suffered their most embarrassing loss of the season, a 102-64 defeat at Iowa. Northwestern had lost 13 straight games before knocking off Minnesota and Maryland. But the advanced stats show the Wildcats should have lost to Minnesota. Sure the Wildcats have three more wins on the season, but is this line really indicative of the talent on these two teams. We don’t think so, give us the Huskers off an embarrassing loss. PLAY NEBRASKA |
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03-06-21 | Golden Knights v. Sharks +181 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
76 Vegas at San Jose Really nice spot here for the Sharks who could have given up after falling behind 2-0 in the early minutes of the game yesterday. Vegas is sure to relax after starting the third string goalie last night, knowing Fleury will be in net this evening. We won’t bother you with the stats as we well know Vegas is superior. But the spot, the rivalry intensity and the price make too hard not to back the underdog Sharks. PLAY SAN JOSE |
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03-06-21 | Flames +116 v. Oilers | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
73 Calgary at Edmonton The Flames made a surprising move yesterday making a coaching change. We look to take advantage of that new found energy on Saturday. In 5x5 action Calgary ranks 14th in G+-/60, while Edmonton ranks 23rd. In looking at the advanced stats we see the Flames at +0.05 in xG/60, and the Oilers at -0.06. So much closer than the actual goals achieved. On the Power Play Calgary ranks 16th in +-G/60, Edmonton 8th. In xG+-/60 The Flames are +4.90 and the Oilers +7.59. A sizable advantage for the host. On the Penalty Kill Calgary ranks 15th in G+-/60 while the Iolers are at spot 22. Looking a bit deeper we see the Flames with a -5.25 xG/60, and the Oilers -7.84. That’s a big advantage for the visitor. The numbers come out pretty even in this one, but the rejuvenation of the Flames because of the management move should really make a difference. PLAY CALGARY |
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03-06-21 | Blues v. Kings +126 | 3-4 | Win | 126 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
20 St Louis at Los Angeles The Blues seem to be on a nice run as of late, but much of that is because of puck luck. The value here is on the Kings at home. In 5x5 G+-/60 the Blues rank 13th, the Kings 19th. In xG/60 St Louis is -0.03, the Kings -0.45. On the Power Play we find St Louis ranking 14th in G+-/60, and LA 7th. Looking at advanced stats the Blues are +6.08 and the Kings +7.32. Nice advantage for the host. In Penalty Killing St Louis ranks 25th in G+-/60 and LA 11th. In xG/60 we find St Louis at -7.09, Los Angeles -6.07. Once again a nice advantage for the Kings. The advanced stats show LA to be just as good as St Louis, and we are getting an inflated price based on nothing but puck luck. PLAY LOS ANGELES |
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03-06-21 | Blue Jackets v. Stars -134 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
18 Columbus at Dallas We lost on the Stars in this matchup on Thursday, but we are not budging on our beliefs. Here is a repeat of our analysis for that game. In G+-/60 in 5x5 Columbus ranks 24th and Dallas is 15th. In xG/60 the Blue Jackets are -0.35, and the Stars +0.14. On the Power Play we find Columbus ranking 21st and Dallas 13th. In xG/60 the Blue Jackets are +3.72 and the Stars are +5.96. So the expected goal differential is even wider for the host. On the Penalty Kill we see both teams struggle. With Columbus coming in at 20th and Dallas at 22nd in G+-/60. Looking at xG/60 we find Columbus -5.47 and the Stars at -7.33, finally an advantage for Columbus. Still even with the Blue Jackets performing better on the penalty kill, the advantage is with the Stars. The price is fair with Dallas. PLAY DALLAS |
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03-06-21 | Maple Leafs -195 v. Canucks | 2-4 | Loss | -195 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
11 Toronto at Vancouver We called for the upset on Thursday as it was a terrible spot for the Maple Leafs. Now we switch sides and back Toronto off a loss. In 5x5 G+-/60 Toronto has a large edge ranking 4th to Vancouver’s 26th. In xG/60 we find the Leafs +0.29 and the Canucks -0.34. Much closer than the actual numbers would suggest. Maybe a little regression is in store for each of these clubs. On the Power Play Toronto comes in ranked 2nd and the Canucks 26th. In xG/60 the Leafs are +8.57 and Vancouver 5.51. A huge advantage for Toronto. Looking at the Penalty Kill we see Toronto 17th and Vancouver 14th. In xG/60 the Leafs are -4.67, and the Canucks -7.26. So the host isn’t nearly as good as the actual numbers show. PLAY TORONTO |
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03-06-21 | Butler v. Creighton -12.5 | Top | 73-93 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
644 Butler at Creighton Butler survived the earlier home meeting 70-66 in overtime. But were a bit lucky to do so when checking out the advanced stats. Creighton has dropped two straight including a 72-60 loss at Villanova on Wednesday. Looking at the advanced stats in that game we see it was by far the worst performance for the Blue Jays this season. We expect a big rebound from Creighton in this one, as they can’t afford another loss to a middling team. Especially considering their Big Dance seed. PLAY CREIGHTON |
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03-06-21 | USC v. UCLA +1.5 | 64-63 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show | |
638 USC at UCLA The Trojans beat the Bruins 66-48 at home. In that game they held the opposition to 3 of 19 from distance. USC also held the Bruins to a defensive season low in free throw percentage. USC is off its most impressive performance of the season in beating Stanford 79-42. UCLA has dropped two straight but should have fared better last time out at Oregon. The Ducks had the hot shooting touch hitting 23 of 34 from two point range and 8 of 17 from distance. We look for UCLA to even up this rivalry game tonight. PLAY UCLA |
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03-06-21 | Rangers v. Devils +106 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 21 m | Show | |
4 NY Rangers at New Jersey This is an afternoon game on Saturday starting at 1PM Eastern. In 5x5 action the G+-/60 ranking show the Rangers 15th and the Devils 22nd. In looking at the advanced stats we see NY +0.04 and NJ -0.03. Virtually equal, so the regression favors the host. On the Power Play we see the Rangers ranking 21st in G+-/60 and the Devils at 28th. Looking closer via xG/60 we have NY +6.46 and NJ 3.59. A significant advantage for the Rangers. On the Penalty Kill the Rangers rank 6th in G+-/60 and the Devils rank dead last. In xG/60 New York is -5.74, and the Devils -7.38. Another nice advantage for the visitor. The Rangers just blew this team away on Thursday, but the game played much closer than the final score. Keep in mind that New Jersey won the first two meetings of this season. New York went all out on Thursday playing with double revenge. It’s time for the Devils to bounce back here. PLAY NEW JERSEY |
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03-06-21 | South Florida +11.5 v. Wichita State | 63-80 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 59 m | Show | |
613 South Florida at Wichita State The Bulls gave Wichita State all they could handle in an 82-77 overtime loss at home. But since the month of February started South Florida has fallen down and haven’t gotten back up. Losses in six of seven games with the last three coming by margins of 21, 46 and 18 points. This is a team that nobody wants right now, which means from a betting standpoint there is value on the Bulls. The Shockers are 14-4 on the season and just faced 11 Top 150 squads. Can’t see them getting up for this game with conference tourney action on deck. It’s time to fade the Shockers. PLAY SOUTH FLORIDA |
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03-05-21 | Ducks v. Avalanche -237 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
70 Anaheim at Colorado As we said yesterday with Carolina. We have no problem laying big numbers if the value is there. And tonight the value is on the high priced Avalanche. Looking at G+-/60 in 5x5 play Colorado ranks 11th and the Ducks 26th. In xG/60 in 5x5 play Colorado is +0.40 and Anaheim -0.21. On the Power Play the Avalanche rank 9th in G+-/60 and Anaheim ranks dead last. Looking at xG/60 Colorado is +7.48 and the Ducks 6.08. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Avalanche are -5.68 and Anaheim is -6.15. Colorado has the abundance of talent and the Ducks look like the weakest team in this division, especially offensively. Lay it with the Avalanche. PLAY COLORADO |
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03-05-21 | Lightning v. Blackhawks +168 | 3-4 | Win | 168 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
64 Tampa Bay at Chicago Lost this game in terrible fashion last night. Even more reason to back the Blackhawks here. In order to save time I just copied the analysis from yesterday. If this game would have been played the first week of the season, we would likely be looking at Tampa domination. But that’s not the case as Chicago looks much better than the preseason expectations. In 5x5 G+-/60 Tampa ranks 1st and Chicago 21st. In xG/60 the Lightning are only +0.14, and the Blackhawks are -0.18. That’s much closer than the actual goals tell us. Which means Tampa Bay has been lucky thus far. On the Power Play both teams excel. Tampa ranks 5th and Chicago ranks 3rd in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Lightning are +6.63 and the Blackhawks +6.46. Very evenly matched. On the Penalty Kill Tampa has a huge advantage, ranking 2nd to Chicago’s 26th in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Lightning are -4.67 and the Blackhawks 6.37. So the advantage for the Lightning is with a man advantage. But is that enough to substantiate this type of price? Considering Chicago is playing much better than earlier in the season we say no way Jose. Give us the nice home dog price on the Hawks. PLAY CHICAGO |
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03-05-21 | Idaho State v. Eastern Washington -12 | 62-75 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show | |
806 Idaho State at Eastern Washington The Bengals just pulled the upset over the Eagles on Wednesday. Winning 68-63 and holding Eastern Washington to 5 of 22 shooting from deep. Considering Idaho State ranks 320th in the nation in defending the three point line, we won’t expect a repeat. The loss for the Eagles broke a nine game winning streak. When looking at advanced stats our numbers show value on the favorite here, as this team has played better than its 12-7 record. Eastern Washington also played quality non-conference opposition in Washington State, Arizona and Oregon. Coming just short of beating the Wildcats in Arizona. Let’s lay it as we catch the better team in revenge. PLAY EASTERN WASHINGTON |
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03-05-21 | Evansville v. Indiana State -5.5 | 43-53 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
870 Evansville at Indiana State The Purple Aces have had a pretty good season considering they were projected at the bottom of the Missouri Valley Conference. Evansville ended the regular season with its second most successful game of the season when looking at the advanced stats. That victory broke a seven game losing streak. It’s been said that it’s tough to beat a team three times in a row in the same season. But that thought process has been debunked. The Sycamores beat Evansville 87-73 and 76-70 in mid-February. Coming off its second worst game of the season when looking at the advanced stats, we look for the 3-0 sweep. PLAY INDIANA STATE |
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03-04-21 | Austin Peay +2.5 v. Eastern Kentucky | 67-70 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
773 Austin Peay & Eastern Kentucky The scores say that the Governors have dropped four of five to end the season, and that is true. But the only game they were actually outplayed when looking at the advanced stats was last time out in a 75-67 loss to Jacksonville State. Austin Peay is only 10-10 in conference, but this team has the ability to win this tournament. Picked third before the season the Governors have the talent to make the Big Dance. They split the season series with Eastern Kentucky, outscoring them by 10 points. The Colonels have an outstanding 21-6 record. But the advanced stats show they were very fortunate. In every one of the six losses they were uncompetitive, in looking at the advanced stats. This team can be beat and we think their season ends tonight. PLAY AUSTIN PEAY |
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03-04-21 | Blue Jackets v. Stars -145 | 3-2 | Loss | -145 | 25 h 6 m | Show | |
34 Columbus at Dallas In G+-/60 in 5x5 Columbus ranks 24th and Dallas is 15th. In xG/60 the Blue Jackets are -0.35, and the Stars +0.14. On the Power Play we find Columbus ranking 21st and Dallas 13th. In G/60 the Blue Jackets are +3.72 and the Stars are +5.96. So the expected goal differential is even wider for the host. On the Penalty Kill we see both teams struggle. With Columbus coming in at 20th and Dallas at 22nd in G+-/60. Looking at xG/60 we find Columbus -5.47 and the Stars at -7.33, finally an advantage for Columbus. Still even with the Blue Jackets performing better on the penalty kill, the advantage is with the Stars. The price is fair with Dallas. PLAY DALLAS |
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03-04-21 | Lightning v. Blackhawks +193 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 39 m | Show | |
32 Tampa Bay at Chicago If this game would have been played the first week of the season, we would likely be looking at Tampa domination. But that’s not the case as Chicago looks much better than the preseason expectations. In 5x5 G+-/60 Tampa ranks 1st and Chicago 21st. In xG/60 the Lightning are only +0.14, and the Blackhawks are -0.18. That’s much closer than the actual goals tell us. Which means Tampa Bay has been lucky thus far. On the Power Play both teams excel. Tampa ranks 5th and Chicago ranks 3rd in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Lightning are +6.63 and the Blackhawks +6.46. Very evenly matched. On the Penalty Kill Tampa has a huge advantage, ranking 2nd to Chicago’s 26th in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Lightning are -4.67 and the Blackhawks 6.37. So the advantage for the Lightning is with a man advantage. But is that enough to substantiate this type of price? Considering Chicago is playing much better than earlier in the season we say no way Jose. Give us the nice home dog price on the Hawks. PLAY CHICAGO |
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03-04-21 | Murray State -2 v. Jacksonville State | 65-68 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
771 Murray State & Jacksonville State The Racers enter tournament play off back to back losses to Tennessee Tech and this Jacksonville State team. The Gamecocks were hot from the field in that contest hitting 19 of 33 from two point range and 13 of 24 from downtown. The long distance success wasn’t normal for this Murray State defense which ranks 99th in defending the three. They say beating a team three straight times in a season is tough, but that’s been proven to be a falsehood. And that’s what the Gamecocks are looking to do tonight. But our numbers show Murray State is the better team here. Looking at the advanced stats we find the Racers deserved a three game better record on the season, than the 13-12 record they bring into this game. We are backing an underrated squad here and the early money seems to agree. PLAY MURRAY STATE |
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03-04-21 | Red Wings v. Hurricanes -285 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 42 m | Show | |
24 Detroit at Carolina Don’t normally lay this type of price, but if there is value there is value. And in a card of five games the underdogs help to balance out this card. In 5x5 G+-/60 Detroit ranks 29th and Carolina 8th. In xG/60 the Hurricanes are +0.29 and the Red Wings -0.29. On the Power Play Detroit ranks 30th and Carolina 1st in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Red Wings are +4.67 and the Hurricanes +6.93. That’s about as big of an advantage you will ever see. On the Penalty Kill Detroit ranks 30th and Carolina 10th in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Red Wings are -7.05, and the Hurricanes -3.80. Another huge advantage for the host. So the only real chance Detroit has in this game is to stay out of the penalty box. If Detroit is at a player disadvantage the Hurricanes can load up and blow them out. PLAY CAROLINA |
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03-04-21 | Sabres +165 v. Islanders | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 31 m | Show | |
47 Buffalo at NY Islanders In 5x5 G+-/60 the Sabres rank dead last in the league, the Islanders 9th. In xG/60 Buffalo is -0.30 and the Islanders +0.37. So the visitor has been extremely unlucky. On the Power Play Buffalo ranks 4th and NY 8th in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Sabres are +6.53 and the Islanders +6.30. So these two are pretty equal with a man advantage. On the Penalty Kill we find NY ranking 5th and the Sabres 12th in G+-/60. The advanced stats show Buffalo -6.56 and the Islanders at -5.29. While New York has the better team, we like the underlying numbers of the Sabres. It also doesn’t hurt that the public wants nothing to do with bad teams. But hockey is a very luck based game, much more than football and basketball. So the worst teams can be bet on for profit. PLAY BUFFALO |
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03-04-21 | St. Joe's v. Massachusetts -3 | 66-100 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show | |
762 St Josephs & Massachusetts The Hawks knocked off La Salle yesterday 72-66 to advance to this round. They are riding a four game winning streak heading into this contest. Considering this team only has five wins on the entire season, that’s really saying something. But to its credit coming out of COVID this team has made the most of it. UMass is 7-6 on the season and 6-4 in Atlantic 10 play. The Minutemen ended the regular season off back to back losses to Richmond and St Louis. We look for a nice bounce back here from Massachusetts, the better and rested team. PLAY MASSACHUSETTS |
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03-03-21 | Stanford +7.5 v. USC | Top | 42-79 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
699 Stanford at USC The Tree had little problem scoring on this USC defense in the last meeting. Making 20 of 36 from two point range, and 7 of 16 from distance. It was a very poor 15.8 free throw rate that cost Stanford the game. Coming off two straight games against Oregon where the Cardinal really struggled to get to the line, we expect a squad on a mission tonight. USC has lost three of four with the lone win coming at home against Oregon. The Trojans were really pumped for that game because of how hot the Ducks have been this season. Despite back to back losses, we can’t see USC being overly motivated to run the score up here. Not with UCLA, their big rival on deck. This is also senior night and USC has three players to honor. We like to fade teams in this situation, as it takes the players away from their normal routine. PLAY STANFORD |
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03-03-21 | Maple Leafs v. Oilers +107 | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
14 Toronto at Edmonton Let’s keep this hot streak going with the Edmonton Oilers. In G+-/60 5x5 Toronto ranks 4th and Edmonton 18th. But the xG/60 has the Leafs +0.29 and the Oilers +0.01. Much closer than the actual goals would suggest. On the Power Play both teams have had success. Toronto ranks 2nd and Edmonton 9th in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Leafs are +8.57, while the Oilers are +7.59. Again closer than the actual goals scored. On the Penalty Kill in +-G/60 Toronto ranks 17th and Edmonton 19th. Looking at the advanced stats the Leafs are -4.67, and the Oilers -7.07. A bigger edge for Toronto than actual goals suggest. Now we take a look at the eye test. Toronto right now is feeling really good about themselves, and the national media is buying in. But as we know that is the exact time we look to fade a team, when fat and happy. Edmonton is playing much better now than earlier in the season, so the year to date numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. The price is more than fair to back the home squad here, in what should be a terrific game to watch. PLAY EDMONTON |
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03-03-21 | Providence v. St. John's -1 | 67-81 | Win | 100 | 25 h 56 m | Show | |
676 Providence at St Johns The Friars are off an impressive victory over Xavier on Wednesday. Shooting 11 of 21 from distance and allowing just 3 of 17 from the three point line. The advanced stats say it was the third best game this season for Providence. So what happened directly following the prior two best outings? A 21 point loss to Indiana, and a home loss to Creighton. St Johns has dropped three of four including a 23 point loss at Villanova. The advanced stats have that rated as the worst performance of the season for the Johnnies. The previous worst was an 18 point loss at Creighton. They followed that up with a 12 point victory over Butler. Look for St Johns to get right tonight hosting the Friars. PLAY ST JOHNS |
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03-02-21 | Hurricanes -124 v. Predators | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
41 Carolina at Nashville Getting quite a bit of line value here with the visitor. In G+-/60 in 5x5 the Hurricanes rank 8th and the Predators are 29th. In xG/60 Carolina is +0.28 and Nashville +0.03. So Nashville is playing much better than its results, yet still well behind in this matchup. On the Power Play Carolina ranks 1st and Nashville 22nd. Looking at xG/60 the Hurricanes are +6.84, while the Preds are 5.79. Better than the actual ranking for the host, but still far behind the league leader. On the Penalty Kill we find the Hurricanes ranking 9th and the Predators 28th. Via xG/60 Carolina is -3.86, Nashville -6.29. That’s the major difference as Nashville is horrendous on the penalty kill. Let’s lay it with confidence. PLAY CAROLINA |
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03-02-21 | Flyers v. Penguins +100 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
4 Philadelphia at Pittsburgh The Flyers rank 5th in G+-/60 in 5x5 play, while the Penguins rank 18th. In xG/60 Philadelphia is actually -0.05 and Pittsburgh -0.22. So a lot of Philadelphia’s success in 5x5 play has been puck luck. On the Power Play we find the Flyers ranking 16th and the Penguins 27th. In xG/60 Philadelphia is +5.48 and Pittsburgh +4.77. An edge in both counts to the visitor. On the Penalty Kill neither team is doing well with Pittsburgh ranking 27th and the Flyers at 29th. In xG/60 Pittsburgh is -6.03 and Philadelphia -7.13. A solid advantage for the host. While the numbers say this game is even, the eye test tells us something different. Pittsburgh really struggled in goal early on and seem to have corrected that problem. That and home ice gives us a nice betting opportunity on the host. The fade of the Flyers continues. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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03-02-21 | Fresno State +13.5 v. Boise State | 67-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
633 Fresno State at Boise State The Bulldogs lost in this building earlier 73-51. They were held to a season low offensive effective field goal percentage in that contest. Coming off a game they lost but outplayed UNLV, this should be a fired up team. Most will look for a big performance out of the Broncos here, off back to back losses at San Diego State. But keep in mind that this is senior day, and the team will honor two key departing players in Derrick Alston Jr and Abu Kigab. With the pregame hoopla we like to fade the host because it takes them out of their normal routines. Also the conference tourney is on deck and another chance for Boise State to meet the Aztecs. PLAY FRESNO STATE |
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03-02-21 | Wake Forest v. Pittsburgh -6.5 | Top | 57-70 | Win | 100 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
610 Wake Forest at Pittsburgh Wake has dropped 13 of 16 in conference action this season. One of the three victories came against this Pittsburgh squad. In that game the Demon Deacons shot 15 of 32 from distance, and had a 59.8 effective field goal percentage. Pittsburgh has dropped eight of nine, including five straight. But every one of those five losses were by seven points or less. With a trip to Clemson to end the regular season, the Panthers need this victory to gain double digit victories. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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03-01-21 | Oklahoma +1 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 75-79 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
845 Oklahoma at Oklahoma State Quick home and home revenge game for the Sooners, who just lost at home to the Cowboys 94-90 in overtime. It’s just the second home loss of the season for the Sooners. In that game Oklahoma was held to a season low offensive rebounding percentage. State has now won four straight games heading into this rematch. But the advanced stats say this team was fortunate to win the last two contests, both overtime victories. We love Lon Kruger as a coach and expect his team to have an additional spark here. The Sooners have dropped two straight and have Texas on deck. This is a must win for the visitor. PLAY OKLAHOMA |
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03-01-21 | Canucks +120 v. Jets | 4-0 | Win | 120 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
75 Vancouver at Winnipeg Winnipeg ranks 14th in G+-/60 in 5x5 play, while Vancouver sits at 27th. But the advanced stats show a different story. In xG/60 in 5x5 the Jets are -0.55, while the Canucks are -0.28. Which shows that these two clubs have had much different puck luck in this season of action. Taking a look at how they have fared on the Power Play, we find Winnipeg ranked 13th and the Canucks 28th. The advanced stats show the Jets at +5.80 G/60, and Vancouver at 5.57. Much closer than the scoreboard shows. In Penalty Killing Winnipeg once again shows a lead in rankings at 12th compared to 15th. In xG/60 we find the Jets at -6.39, and the Canucks at -7.47. The only category where Winnipeg agrees on both counts. The numbers show the Jets to be slightly better when taking puck luck into consideration, not nearly what this current line is saying. We will take the value on the Canucks with this plus money price. PLAY VANCOUVER |
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03-01-21 | Nuggets v. Bulls +5.5 | 118-112 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
510 Denver at Chicago This could be a tough spot for the Nuggets to get motivated. Off a satisfying 30 point road blowout of the Thunder, with a trip to Milwaukee tomorrow. Chicago is playing really good ball as of late, winning five of seven. The two losses at Philadelphia by 7, and hosting Phoenix losing by 9. The game at Toronto on the 28th was postponed. So the Bulls have the better rest advantage. Not overly sold on this Nuggets team who lacks consistency. Give us the hard trying Bulls in an underdog role. PLAY CHICAGO |
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02-28-21 | Red Wings v. Blackhawks -182 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
66 Detroit at Chicago The Red Wings finally broke through against the Blackhawks last night, but we look for a reversal on Sunday. The advanced stats showed Detroit was very fortunate yesterday, as the game was much closer than the final score. When looking at xG/60 on 5x5 these two teams are very close. But that’s the only area in which Chicago doesn’t have an advantage. On the Power Play Chicago ranks 5th and Detroit ranks 30th. In xG/60 the Blackhawks are +6.35 and the Red Wings +4.61. On the Penalty Kill neither team has done well, with the host ranking 24th and the visitor 30th. The xG/60 are -6.41 for Chicago, and -6.90 for the visitor. Chicago by way of the Power Play will gain its revenge on Sunday. PLAY CHICAGO |
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02-27-21 | Hurricanes -118 v. Panthers | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 2 m | Show | |
41 Carolina at Florida These two rank 5th and 8th in G+-/60 in 5x5 action. In xG/60 the Hurricanes are +0.45, and the Panthers are +0.30. In looking at the Power Play Carolina ranks 3rd and Florida 6th. In xG/60 the Panthers are actually stronger at +8.05, compared to +6.99. In Penalty Killing is where these two separate. The Hurricanes rank 9th and the Panthers 16th. In xG/60 Carolina is -3.84, and Florida -6.61. We trust the visitor a bit more than the host here, and the line is well within our range. PLAY CAROLINA |
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02-27-21 | Penguins v. Islanders -115 | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 56 m | Show | |
44 Pittsburgh at NY Islanders In G+-/60 in 5x5 action the Islanders rank 10th, while the Penguins are 20th. In xG/60 NY is +0.35 and Pittsburgh -0.20. So we are looking at more than a half goal advantage for the host. On the Power Play New York has a sizable advantage ranking 12th to 26th for Pittsburgh. In xG/60 the Islanders are +5.91 to +4.89. Closer but still a solid goal advantage for the host. The major difference between these two is the Penalty Kill. Where it’s a 5th to a 25th ranking advantage for New York. In xG/60 we find the Islanders -5.64 and the Penguins -5.52. Much better for Pittsburgh than the raw actual scoring numbers. The Islanders are the better team, but Pittsburgh is a bit underrated based on the advanced stats. Still, with revenge for a prior meeting and the home ice advantage, this number is rather cheap. PLAY NEW YORK ISLANDERS |
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02-27-21 | Rhode Island +1 v. Duquesne | 75-86 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 20 m | Show | |
729 Rhode Island at Duquesne The Rams had won 21 or more games in three of the past four seasons. They enter play on Saturday 10-13. This is a team that gets to the foul line offensively, and plays good quality defense. The problem has been 3 point shooting, ranking 273rd in the country. In the prior meeting, a 71-69 road loss, the Rams shot 4 of 20 from distance while allowing 8 of 18. That in itself was the reason why Rhode Island tasted defeat. Duquesne has been in a terrible shooting slump from deep. Over the last six games the Dukes have made 39 of 142, less than 25% from distance. Look for the Rams to get the victory here as the Dukes continue to struggle from three point range. PLAY RHODE ISLAND |
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02-27-21 | Furman -1.5 v. Wofford | Top | 73-74 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
735 Furman at Wofford The Paladins have won four straight and haven’t played a bad game since the 81-71 loss to Winthrop in mid-December. But there is one game i’m sure they have circled, tonight’s matchup with Wofford. You see the Terriers are the only team to beat Furman in Timmons Arena this year. In that game the Paladins had a season low free throw rate as the team just didn’t push the action. Wofford is coming off its best game of the season blowing out Western Carolina 80-56. You couldn’t ask for a better spot for the visitor. PLAY FURMAN |
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02-27-21 | SE Missouri State v. SIU-Edwardsville +2.5 | 69-63 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 25 m | Show | |
712 SE Missouri State at SIU Edwardsville The Redhawks have won three of four but we prefer SE Missouri State when playing in the Show Me Center. When taking to the road this team is just 3-9 SU on the season. This club has been outplayed when looking at advanced stats in 11 of 13 games. On Thursday they shot 12 of 25 from distance to win at Eastern Illinois. Edwardsville had lost five straight before a home win over Tennessee Martin on Thursday. With a 9-15 record on the season the Cougars can reach double digit wins for only the second time in the past six seasons. They played the Redhawks within two points on the road earlier, we expect the host to meet their double digit goal on Saturday. PLAY SIUE |
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02-27-21 | TCU v. Iowa State | 76-72 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 23 m | Show | |
714 TCU at Iowa State The Horned Frogs got off to a great start in non-conference action, but it hasn’t been nearly as easy once Big 12 action started. Now 7-2 out of conference but only 4-8 in conference. One of those victories was a 79-76 home win over these Cyclones. Iowa State is the best 2-17 team we’ve seen in years. The Cyclones have dropped 13 straight games. But when looking at advanced stats this team should much more competitive. They are winless on the season when taking to the road. So trips to Texas Tech and Kansas State are likely to result in losses. Iowa State also hosts Texas on Tuesday, which means this is likely the best chance to win again this season. They deserved better than a defeat in the prior matchup, they get the win here. PLAY IOWA STATE |
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02-27-21 | Austin Peay +4 v. Jacksonville State | 67-75 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 28 m | Show | |
691 Austin Peay at Jacksonville State The Governors were highly touted coming into the season. Being ranked up there with Belmont and Murray State. While the 14-11 record as fine, it’s not nearly what Matt Figger and his club expected. This is a team coming off 21 and 22 win seasons. After losing back to back games to Tennessee Tech and Eastern Ilinois, the Governors need a victory here to finish the regular season with a winning record. While the record is a bit disappointing, the advanced stats say this team is extremely underrated. Jacksonville State has won six of seven lately, losing only to Belmont. But we have these two clubs rated much closer than others. After dropping a 76-70 game at home, we expect the visitor to win this one outright. PLAY AUSTIN PEAY |
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02-27-21 | Marquette +7 v. Connecticut | 62-80 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 60 m | Show | |
645 Marquette at Connecticut The Golden Eagles are off a confident building added game victory at fabled North Carolina. That came on the heels of a 16 point victory at Butler. Those games look to be a buy sign for Marquette who had really struggled over the previous three weeks. The Golden Eagles were beaten at home 65-54 at the hands of these Huskies in early January. In that game UConn hit 8 of 16 from long distance, and had 44.1% offensive rebounding success. The Huskies have Seton Hall home revenge on deck, and are only 3-3 SU in Gampel Pavilion this year. Simply can’t trust this team to lay points right now in this building. PLAY MARQUETTE |
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02-27-21 | Flyers v. Sabres +138 | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 16 m | Show | |
62 Philadelphia at Buffalo We’ve made a pretty penny this year fading the Flyers. We stubbornly bet on them in Lake Tahoe because of the price and deservedly lost 7-2 to the Bruins. But we are back on the fade train here against a Sabres team nobody is staring in line to bet. In G+-/60 in 5x5 action Philadelphia ranks 14th and Buffalo 30th. But when looking at the advanced stats we find the Flyers -0.38, and the Sabres -0.06. Buffalo is better but has suffered from puck luck. In Power Play action Buffalo ranks 1st and Philadelphia 14th. In xG/60 the Sabres are +6.71 and the Flyers +5.08. Slightly closer than the actual on ice numbers. Even on the Penalty Kill Buffalo is doing better. Ranking 20th to 29th for Philadelphia. In xG/60 we find Buffalo -6.36 and Philadelphia -7.28. Not much was expected for Buffalo coming into the season, and the on ice numbers support that. But when looking underneath the surface we see a team playing in bad luck. Philadelphia was considered a contender, but even looking closer we find no reason to think anything is going to change. PLAY BUFFALO |
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02-26-21 | Kings v. Pistons OVER 227.5 | 110-107 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
531 Sacramento at Detroit The Kings are riding a nine game losing streak, and are ending a five game road trip. The last four games they allowed 140, 127, 128 and 122 points. And oh yeah, they are unrested after playing in New York last night. Detroit returns home after its own five game road trek. Wednesday in New Orleans the Pelicans ran them to death and they faded in the fourth quarter. The Pistons coaching staff has said they are going to run the Kings as much as possible tonight, as they finally have the rested legs. With this being a high paced game we look for points to be plenty. PLAY OVER |
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02-26-21 | Southern Utah v. Northern Arizona +8 | Top | 92-62 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
836 Southern Utah at Northern Arizona The Thunderbirds just beat the Lumberjacks 85-80 on Wednesday. Having now won six straight and 16 of 19 on the season, what is their motivation to run up a score here? Especially with a pretty good Portland State two game trip on deck. This is the final regular season game for the Lumberjacks. We don’t have to worry about any senior night distractions, as this team doesn’t have anyone graduating. Off three straight losses, including two uncompetitive games, you have to think you get a full effort from the host here. Much better spot play for the Lumberjacks. PLAY NORTHERN ARIZONA |
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02-26-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Troy State +5 | 75-59 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
848 Coastal Carolina at Troy The Chanticleers swept Troy at home 90-81 and 70-65 in late January. But it took 20 of 43 shooting from deep to do so. This team has just one loss all season in the HTC Center, but is only 1-5 all year when taking to the road. Troy is riding a five game losing streak into this contest. But are 7-2 SU at the Trojan Arena this season. Huge home/road dichotomy for these two teams. Look for the host to come out with extra special motivation here. PLAY TROY |
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02-26-21 | Appalachian State v. Georgia Southern -1.5 | 84-78 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
830 Appalachian State at Georgia Southern App State has fallen on hard times as of late, dropping five straight heading into this contest. But we could see it coming as two of the three prior wins were more luck that skill. In fact, the Mountaineers have only played one good game since the last time these two tangled on January 9th. And despite sweeping the Eagles in those two games, the advanced stats show Georgia Southern to have played the better games. The Eagles shot a combined 33 of 54 in those games from two point territory and still found a way to lose. Since January 2nd the Eagles are just 6-7, but the advanced stats show a better 10-3 deserved record. Off back to back losses to Coastal Carolina and Georgia State, we look for the host to get its revenge. PLAY GEORGIA SOUTHERN |
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02-26-21 | Tulane +6 v. Cincinnati | 71-91 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 5 m | Show | |
817 Tulane at Cincinnati The Green Wave have struggled in conference action, posting a 4-10 mark. But five of those defeats came by single digits, including a 64-61 home loss to these Bearcats. In that game Tulane shot just 3 of 12 from distance. That has been a problem all season, shooting from the field. Tulane ranks 49th in the country in free throw shooting, but put a hand in their face and suddenly they struggle. But that’s not what we want from this club. What we are looking for is defense, and Tulane is 52nd in the nation in defensive adjusted efficiency. They force turnovers at the 15h best rate in college basketball. That defense is enough to keep the Green Wave in this till the final buzzer. Cincinnati is having a down season, but have won five of six entering this contest. But those wins have come by margins of 3, 3, 2, 1 and 1 points. All less than what this current line is. The high offensive output in those games was 71 points. The Bearcats just don’t score enough points to be trusted in this price range. PLAY TULANE |
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02-25-21 | Washington State +9 v. Arizona | 53-69 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 55 m | Show | |
787 Washington State at Arizona The Cougars are playing their best ball of the season winning five of seven, including an 85-76 triple overtime victory over Stanford on Saturday. A main reason for their success as of late is keeping the opposition off the offensive glass. Washington State has now broken into the Top 100 in that defensive category, a huge improvement as the season has gone on. That puts them in the Top 90 in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. That along with an offensive free throw rate of 68th, prove this team is really playing good hard basketball for Kyle Smith and his crew. Arizona is 15-8 on the season, but the Wildcats have dropped four of six as of late. They beat Washington State 86-82 in double overtime in early January. Simply don’t trust them here laying this type of number. PLAY WASHINGTON STATE |
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02-25-21 | Oregon State v. California +1 | 59-57 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 56 m | Show | |
786 Oregon State at California They say beating a team three times in a season is tough. And that’s what the Beavers are looking to do tonight at California. Oregon State won the opening game of the season hosting the Bears 71-63, then again at home 73-64. But now the Beavers have to take to the road, and this team has only one victory on the season away from home. Cal is desperate for a victory having lost 9 of 10, and face Oregon on Saturday. We expect a supreme effort from the host. In the last meeting the Beavers shot the lights out from distance making 9 of 20. These two clubs are not that different from each other to expect a 3-0 sweep, especially with Oregon State’s struggles on the road. Give us the desperate Bears. PLAY CALIFORNIA |
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02-25-21 | San Francisco +11 v. BYU | 73-79 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show | |
767 San Francisco at BYU The Dons have dropped four straight games including a 39 point blowout hosting Gonzaga. But despite a current 2-5 recent record, the Dons, based on advanced stats should have gone 5-2. One of the undeserved losses came at the hands of these Cougars. BYU won 72-63 at San Francisco, but it was a terrible offensive rebounding game and free throw rate contest. In fact, the 4.8 free throw rate was the Don’s worst of the season. BYU is a high quality team, no doubt about it. With losses to Gonzaga twice, USC, and Boise State. But the Cougars also lost at Pepperdine, a similarly power rated team as San Francisco. With the Cougars having higher future aspirations, the Don’s should be the more focused squad. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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02-25-21 | Oregon v. Stanford -1 | 71-68 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 60 m | Show | |
772 Oregon at Stanford The Ducks were one of the hottest teams in college basketball heading into Monday’s contest at USC. But they fell behind early and never had a chance in a 72-58 loss. It was the very worst performance on the season for Oregon. So naturally the Ducks should be a popular play on Thursday. But we are looking to fade the hot team off a loss. Stanford is off a triple overtime 85-76 loss to Washington State. A game in which neither team looked interested in grabbing the victory. But the 6.3% offensive rebounding night was a season low for the Cardinal. Low offensive rebounding numbers along with a low free throw rate, show one glaring conclusion. Lack of effort. You can bet Jerod Haase and his staff will be drilling that information into the heads of his players. The last time these two played the Ducks won comfortably 73-56. But the Cardinal were 3 of 18 from distance and had an 8.8 offensive rebounding percentage. Look for the host to play with high intensity here. PLAY STANFORD |
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02-25-21 | Stars v. Panthers -125 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
4 Dallas at Florida Quick revenge game for the Panthers who were shutout last night 3-0. When looking at G+-/60 5x5 rankings Dallas is 8th and Florida is 10th. The Stars are +0.39, the Panthers +0.28. In xG/60 Dallas is +0.17 and Florida +0.29. So slight value on the host. Looking at Power Play numbers these two are tied at 9.8 xG/60 which ranks 7th. But in looking at the advanced stats we find Dallas at +6.40 and Florida at +8.23. A larger advantage for the host. Taking a look at the Penalty Kill units, we find the Stars ranked 20th at -7.28, and the Panthers 15th at -6.15. The advanced stats are -6.93 for Dallas and -6.02 for the Panthers. So once again Florida has the edge. That coupled with home loss revenge from last night puts us squarely on the host. PLAY FLORIDA |
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02-25-21 | Nebraska +17 v. Illinois | 70-86 | Win | 100 | 21 h 6 m | Show | |
747 Nebraska at Illinois Major contrarian play here as nobody will want to fade the Illini after a loss. Nebraska is 1-13 in conference action. With the lone victory coming by a single point at Penn State. But upon closer inspection this team is playing far better than its record suggests. Even in the previous meeting, a 77-72 overtime loss, the Huskers were every bit as good as Illinois. The Illini just lost at previously dead Michigan State on Tuesday. With Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio State to end the conference season, many will expect a blowout here. We disagree as we fade the obvious play here and take the points. PLAY NEBRASKA |
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02-24-21 | Wild +162 v. Avalanche | Top | 6-2 | Win | 162 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
89 Minnesota at Colorado Like the big underdog price here for the Wild, after Colorado played a tough four game series vs the Golden Knights. That was a huge series for both clubs as they are expected to be title contenders in the west. Looking at the numbers we find both teams slightly underrated in 5x5 play. Colorado with an xG/60 of +0.35 and Minnesota at +0.39. Colorado ranks 10th in Power Play G+-/60, Minnesota 25th. But the advanced stats has these two much closer. In xG/60 on the Power Play the Avalanche are +6.80, the Wild at +5.39. Looking at Penalty Killing these clubs are both excellent ranking 2 and 3 on the season. But the advanced numbers have Minnesota slightly better in xG/60 at -4.28 and Colorado at -6.21. These two clubs are very similar when looking at expected goals. That and the bad spot for the Avalanche put us squarely on the underdog here. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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02-24-21 | McNeese State +4 v. Southeastern Louisiana | Top | 96-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
307323 McNeese State at SE Louisiana The Cowboys matchup very well with Southeastern Louisiana. In fact, in the earlier meeting they had the best PPP of the conference season. Unfortunately they lost 92-88 in what was a very even game. The Cowboys have played their best ball of the season as of late despite a 2-4 record. This team has been right there in every game except the 64-56 loss to Lamar. This is an undervalued team right now. The Lions of Southeastern Louisiana have had more success lately in the win/loss column. But when looking at the advanced stats they have been extremely inconsistent. The recent wins have been legit, but the losses were much worse than the final scores. For example last Saturday in an 86-84 overtime loss to Nichols State, the Lions were completely outplayed and should have lost by double digits in regulation. The host has been rather lucky as of late while the visitor has been better than the final scores indicate. We will gladly take the points with the Cowboys. PLAY MCNEESE STATE |
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02-24-21 | Flames +130 v. Maple Leafs | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
61 Calgary at Toronto The Flames rank 18th in G+-/60 in 5x5, while the Maple Leafs are 4th ranked. But the advanced stats have these two much closer. In xG/60 Calgary is +0.16 and Toronto +0.29. Toronto has a sizable power play advantage in xG+-/60 at 8.93 to Calgary’s 5.05. The Leafs also have a -4.90 xG/60 to -6.07 advantage in the penalty kill. While the numbers show Toronto to be superior, we prefer the Flames. Early money has come in on the dog and we agree. Just don’t trust Toronto as a decent size favorite over a quality team. PLAY CALGARY |
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02-23-21 | Blackhawks v. Blue Jackets -125 | 6-5 | Loss | -125 | 22 h 24 m | Show | |
56 Chicago at Columbus In 5x5 action Columbus ranks 23rd and Chicago 29th in G+-/60. In xG/60 Chicago has fared better at -0.25 compared to -0.48 for Columbus. But keep in mind the Blue Jackets have played better since the big trade. The Chicago power play has been better ranking 8th compared to 21st in G+-/60. The xG/60 is also better for the Black Hawks at 6.28 compared to 3.85. The penalty killing is 19th for Chicago, and 20th for Columbus. But the Blue Jackets own the better xG/60 at -5.50 compared to Chicago’s -6.57. Columbus outplayed Chicago in the last meeting but the Black Hawks came away with the victory. At home seeking revenge we favor the Blue Jackets with this short line. PLAY COLUMBUS |
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02-22-21 | Wild -139 v. Sharks | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
81 Minnesota at San Jose The Wild have a 5x5 xGF/60 0.48, while the Sharks sit at a -0.06. Which is about double what these teams have played to on the ice. The Sharks are showing a 6.60 xGF/60 on the power play, while the Wild come in at a slightly less 5.04. Minnesota ranks 3rd in G+-/60 on the penalty kill, with an xG/60 of -4.44. The Sharks rank 22nd in G+-/60 with a xG/60 of 4.82. We’ve lost some value overnight on the line, but there is still enough value out there to back the Wild. Play slightly less than our normal play. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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02-22-21 | Houston Baptist v. Northwestern State -4.5 | 80-86 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show | |
307206 Houston Baptist at Northwestern State The Huskies of Houston Baptist have just one road win all season, a victory at Incarnate Word. One of their four victories overall was against this Northwestern State team 99-93 in overtime. But when looking at the advanced stats the Huskies were lucky to have won that contest. They held the Demons to 7 of 31 from downtown in that contest. This team isn’t known for its defensive prowess, ranking 315th in the country in adjusted efficiency. Northwestern State started the year losing 14 of 16, but have won five straight games entering this revenge contest. This team is playing much better ball than the previous meeting. Look for the Demons to continue their recent success here. PLAY NORTHWESTERN STATE |
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02-22-21 | Sabres +144 v. Islanders | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
77 Buffalo at NY Islanders The two worst performing teams in 5x5 G+-/60 on the season are the Senators and the Sabres. But neither team is as bad as the numbers have shown. In fact, Ottawa was a nice underdog winner yesterday. The reason we are so confident in the value of these two teams are the advanced stats. For example Buffalo is -1.01 G+-/60 in 5x5 action. But looking at xG/60 the Sabres are actually +0.05. That’s over a goal per game better when taking out the luck factor. On the Power Play Buffalo ranks 3rd in the league, while the Islanders rank 13th. In xG+-/60 Buffalo should be +6.16, with NY at 6.13. On the Penalty Kill the Islanders rank 9th and the Sabres 16th. In xG/60 the Islanders are -5.79 and the Sabres -7.02. So Buffalo is just as good as the Islanders in every category except on the penalty kill. And yet the value is on the visitor. Give us the Sabres in a game that plays out much closer to even than the line suggests. PLAY BUFFALO |
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02-21-21 | Jets v. Canucks +100 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
34 Winnipeg at Vancouver In 5x5 play Winnipeg is virtually even in G+-/60, but in xGF/60 they are -0.39 goals. So the results have been better than they deserve. The Canucks on the other hand are -0.56 G+-/60, but should be slightly better at -0.29 when looking at XGF/60. The same type of numbers also show up in power play situations, as the Jets are overachieving while the Canucks have had poor puck luck. Both teams are close to projections on the penalty kill. With the expected numbers backing the host we find value of the Canucks. PLAY VANCOUVER |
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02-21-21 | Flyers +155 v. Bruins | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
25 Philadelphia at Boston We’ve been fading the Flyers on a regular basis this season because their advanced stats don’t equal the on ice results. Tonight we look to back them as this line is simply too large. When betting for a living it’s all about value, and the Bruins right now are an overpriced team. We could get into all the reasons, but the truth is we know value when we see it and the Bruins don’t deserve to be this large a favorite. In G+-/60 the lucky Flyers rank 7th, while Boston ranks 17th. These two are much closer in talent than this line suggests. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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02-20-21 | Utah +9.5 v. Oregon | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
765 Utah at Oregon The Utes had been playing pretty well with three straight victories. But have now dropped back to back games against Stanford and Oregon State. This is the third straight road game for Utah, as it looks to even out the season series with the Ducks. Oregon won the prior meeting 79-73 in Mid-January. Oregon is the hot team in the PAC 12 right now, winning 13 of 16 overall. After this contest the Ducks take to the road for four straight games. After knocking off Arizona and Colorado, we can see this as being a late spot for the host. PLAY UTAH |
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02-20-21 | Canisius v. Fairfield +5.5 | 53-66 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show | |
686 Canisius at Fairfield The Golden Griffins took care of the Stags last night 80-69. But a closer look at the advanced stats show they were lucky to come out ahead. Canisius had a season low offensive turnover percentage, and held Fairfield to 15 of 39 from two point range. This team has won five straight, but the advanced numbers say they should have had a 3-2 record. Fairfield has had a difficult season with a 5-15 record, but are playing much better as of late. Posting a 4-6 conference record since January 2nd, and winning three of six as of late. Luckily for us we rate the teams on how they are playing now, not contests played in December. PLAY FAIRFIELD |
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02-20-21 | West Virginia +3.5 v. Texas | 84-82 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
653 West Virginia at Texas The Mountaineers are coming in off a double overtime loss hosting Oklahoma. They have had a full week to stew over that defeat. Now they face a Texas team for the second time after a 72-70 home loss in Mid-January. That game was decided around the basket as the Mountaineers shot only 15 of 37 from two point range, while allowing the Longhorns to make 23 of 39 from that distance. Texas defends underneath the basket very well, so we expect West Virginia to try more shots from three point range. They rank 43rd in the country from distance. PLAY WEST VIRGINIA |
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02-20-21 | Texas Tech +1.5 v. Kansas | 61-67 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 54 m | Show | |
639 Texas Tech at Kansas The Red Raiders are in a positive situation on Saturday. Off their second straight loss to West Virginia, a team they clearly don’t match up well against. Now looking for revenge against a Kansas crew that beat them 58-57 in Mid-December. Texas Tech had a horrible shooting game in that contest, with 14 of 39 from two point range and 6 of 23 from downtown. Tech ranks 6th in the country in defensive turnovers, and 21st in defensive adjusted efficiency. Kansas is riding high with a four game winning streak, and have Texas revenge on deck. They were blown out by 25 vs the Longhorns, so you know that game has been circled. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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02-20-21 | Kentucky +7 v. Tennessee | 70-55 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show | |
619 Kentucky at Tennessee The Wildcats are finally playing better as of late with back to back wins over Auburn and Vanderbilt. Even in previous losses to Missouri and these Volunteers, Kentucky showed signs of coming around. Tennessee is still being picked by many to be a strong long shot in the Big Dance. But the Volunteers are only 4-4 SU lately in SEC play. Teams are starting to figure out this defense a bit. Coupled with the Wildcats improvement, the visitor is worthy of a wager. PLAY KENTUCKY |
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02-19-21 | Oilers +110 v. Flames | 2-1 | Win | 110 | 26 h 7 m | Show | |
69 Edmonton at Calgary The Oilers are at a slight disadvantage here in 5x5 action. Edmonton is -0.11 in G+-/60 and -0.01 with xGF/60. Calgary is +0.29 in G+-/60 and +0.16 in XGF/60. Edmonton does have a substantial edge on the power play ranking 10th in xGF% with a +14 goal advantage. Calgary ranks 26th in xGF% with a +9 goal power play advantage. Both teams are close to even in penalty killing with the Oilers -12 goals and the Flames -11 goals. The power play edge for the visitor is too good to ignore in this price range. Give us the Oilers to grab this road victory. PLAY EDMONTON |
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02-19-21 | South Alabama +3 v. Appalachian State | 65-63 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show | |
833 South Alabama at Appalachian State The Jaguars scuffled through most of the season but have run off six straight victories. They split the home series against Appalachian State, winning by 9 and losing by 6. That defeat on January 16th was the last loss in regulation for South Alabama. They shot a combined 21 of 44 from distance in those contests, and rank 84th in the country shooting from three point range. This is a club that ranks 23rd defensively in free throw rate, so don’t expect the Mountaineers to get many free throws. Appalachian State dropped both meetings at Troy over the weekend. While they rank 272nd in defensive adjusted efficiency, they do very well keeping the opposition from the line at the 12th best rate in the nation. In what we expect to be a lower scoring game we will take the road dog to win this outright. PLAY SOUTH ALABAMA |
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02-18-21 | Wild v. Ducks +113 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 57 m | Show | |
64 Minnesota at Anaheim We agree the Wild should be favored here based on the advanced stats. But to make them a road favorite of this size we disagree with. When it comes to 5x5 play the results are basically even but the Wild have been controlling the puck and deserve better results. On the power play neither team has had much success with both teams scoring just three times with a man advantage. The teams are each -6 goals on the penalty kill. So the actual numbers show these two squads being dead even. The advanced stats show an edge for the visitor in 5x5 action. No matter how we work these numbers this line is too high for the Wild. PLAY ANAHEIM |