Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-07-23 | Rangers -1.5 v. A's | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rangers send Dane Dunning (9-4, 3.14 ERA) to the mound today. The right-hander is coming off one of his best starts of the season. He held the visiting Chicago White Sox to one run on three hits and a walk in 7 1/3 innings, and struck out a career-high 11 in an 11-1 win. Dunning has faced the A's six times, including five starts, and is 1-0 with a 3.65 ERA spanning 24 2/3 innings. He had 23 strikeouts and 13 walks along the way. Oakland counters with rookie lefty Ken Waldichuk (2-7, 6.52), who has been used as a starter and as a reliever this season. His last appearance came in a start on Tuesday. He gave up four runs on one hit and three walks with five strikeouts in a 7-3 loss to the host Los Angeles Dodgers. The left-hander wasn't effective against the Rangers in his lone appearance against them this year. He ended up with a no-decision after allowing four runs (three earned) on seven hits and five walks over five innings during a 9-7 win in 10 innings on May 12. |
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08-04-23 | Nationals v. Reds -1.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Reds send their hottest pitcher to the mound in the series opener in right-hander Graham Ashcraft (6-7, 5.31 ERA). In Sunday's 9-0 win over the Dodgers, Ashcraft allowed just five hits in six shutout innings to record his third win in five starts. Ashcraft limited the Nationals to one run and seven hits over six innings on July 5, earning the win in Cincinnati's 9-2 victory. In his brief career, Ashcraft has made two starts against the Nationals and won them both, posting a 1.38 ERA over 13 innings. He has allowed two runs and 11 hits. Washington sends lefty Patrick Corbin (7-11, 5.07) to the mound on today. Corbin, who is making his 23rd start of the season, is coming off a win in his last start. Against the New York Mets on Saturday, he surrendered four runs on six hits over 5 2/3 innings in an 11-6 victory. Things didn't go as well when Corbin started against the Reds on July 4. He was tagged for six runs on 10 hits, three walks and a hit batter over five innings and took the loss in Cincinnati's 8-4 win. |
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08-03-23 | White Sox v. Rangers -1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rangers dominated the first two games, outscoring the White Sox by a combined 13-1. Texas starters Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning struck out 11 batters apiece in the first two games of the series. Enter Scherzer, who has 121 strikeouts in 107 2/3 innings. Scherzer (9-4, 4.01 ERA) will be appearing for his sixth team in 16 seasons after the New York Mets traded him to the Rangers for shortstop prospect Luisangel Acuna. The deal also included cash to pay roughly half of the $58 million that is owed to the right-hander for the rest of this season and next season. On Friday, in his last start for the Mets, Scherzer allowed six hits and a run in seven innings against the visiting Washington Nationals. Scherzer has made 24 career starts against the White Sox, but none since 2016. He is 13-6 with a 2.43 ERA in 163 innings against them. The Rangers also got a big boost to their lineup after Corey Seager returned last night and picked up where he left off going 2-4 with a home run. |
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08-02-23 | Padres -1.5 v. Rockies | 11-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rockies have been selling ahead of the deadline while the Padres have kicked the tires on adding pieces. San Diego reportedly added Rich Hill to their pitching staff ahead of the deadline and were looking at other pieces. The Padres are the better team with plenty of talent that has underachieved all season long. With that said, Musgrove has been rolling along, posting an 8-1 mark with a 1.66 ERA over 11 starts since June 1. Meanwhile, Freeland leads the National League in losses and has dropped his last seven decisions with his last victory coming back on May 14. San Diego knows that they have to take care of business here if they want to make a run. Look for Musgrove to handcuff the Rockies and deliver the victory here. |
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07-29-23 | Twins -1.5 v. Royals | 7-10 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Lyles is one of the worst pitchers in baseball. He has a 6.19 ERA paired with a 5.01 xERA and 5.45 FIP in 19 starts this season. If the Royals weren’t so bad, he would have been gone weeks ago. But, Kansas City is at the bottom of the division and the American League, so Lyles will continue to throw batting practice on the mound every 5 days. That day is today, and I’m expecting another bashing of Lyles. The veteran ranks in the 8th percentile in xSLG, 17th in barrel rate, 22nd in xBA and 11th in whiff rate among pitchers this season. At home with Lyles on the mound, the Royals are 0-9 straight up and 2-7 against the spread. Bailey Ober has allowed 3 runs or less in 15 of his 16 starts. He has a 2.76 ERA paired with a 3.52 xERA and a 3.59 FIP and has been even better away from Minnesota. On the road, Ober is 4-1 with a 2.41 ERA and 0.830 WHIP in 6 starts. He’s limited hitters to just a .196 batting average and .552 OPS during those 37.1 innings which gives me confidence he can limit a struggling Royals lineup. |
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07-28-23 | Angels +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 1-4 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Since the All-Star break, the Angels are hitting .259 BA/.354 OBP/.491 SLG/.846 OPS, averaging 6.4 runs per game. Even without Mike Trout, this lineup can make things difficult for Jays starter Gausman, who gave up four long balls in his last start (LA has the third-most HRs in MLB). Giolito held the Blue Jays to two runs and four hits in six frames on July 4 and is coming off a nine-strikeout game in his last outing with the White Sox. Toronto has been hot at the dish this month, but it's an inconsistent ballclub, with a 7-5 post-All-Star break record despite its impressive hitting stats. It's struggled to cover the run line as betting favorites no matter the venture, but especially at home, where it scores just 4.2 runs per game this year. LA, averages 5.2 runs on the road. |
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07-25-23 | Pirates v. Padres -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pittsburgh has lost 11 of its last 14 overall and the Pirates have dropped 16 in the last 21 playing on the road. Pittsburgh is well down the standings in the run line, as the Pirates are 45-54 against the run line. The Padres have won four of the last six and have won five of the last six at home. Pittsburgh starting pitcher Rich Hill has been hit hard in each of the last five starts allowing a total of 19 runs in only 26 ⅔ innings with the Pirates losing three of the five. In contrast, San Diego starting pitcher Blake Snell has had 11 consecutive strong outings allowing one earned run or less in 10 of the 11. Snell was on the mound in late June when San Diego lost to Pittsburgh, but the left-hander gave up just two earned runs and received little run support as San Diego scored just one run. |
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07-23-23 | Astros -1.5 v. A's | 3-2 | Loss | -133 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Astros despite their loss last night, have been playing pretty well winning 5 out of the last 8 games since their return from the All-Star break. In 5 of the wins, 4 of which they defeated their opponents by at least 2 runs. Expect the Astros to bounce back against one of the worst teams in the MLB and especially during games that are played during the day. The Athletics have lost close to 85% of the games that have been played during the day, losing 39 out of 46 games. It is also important to note that the Astros had won 9 straight games against the Athletics before losing yesterday. As the price for the ML is a little steep, I expect the Astros to win on the road in dominant fashion and win by at least 2 runs. |
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07-23-23 | Padres -1.5 v. Tigers | 1-3 | Loss | -128 | 3 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units San Diego Padres right-hander Joe Musgrove has been lights out since late May. The Detroit Tigers have the unenviable task of trying to solve Musgrove when they face the visiting Padres on Sunday in the finale of a three-game series. Musgrove (9-2, 3.16 ERA) is 8-0 in his last 10 starts. He's only allowed 12 earned runs during that stretch, spanning 61 1/3 innings -- good for an ERA of 1.76. Musgrove has been very stingy in three July starts. He held the Los Angeles Angels to one run and three hits while striking out 11 on July 4. He then tossed six scoreless innings while striking out seven against the New York Mets on July 9. In his first post-All-Star break appearance, Musgrove gave up one run and five hits while striking out seven in six innings at Toronto on Tuesday. Detroit is expected to turn to right-hander Alex Faedo (1-4, 6.98), who allowed seven runs on six hits in 3 2/3 innings against the Blue Jays on July 7 in his most recent outing. |
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07-22-23 | Astros -1.5 v. A's | 1-4 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Astros are 8-0 against the A's this season and have won seven of those games by multiple runs. A's starter Paul Blackburn in his last three outings (two starts), is 0-2 with a 10.03 ERA, a 2.14 WHIP, seven walks and nine strikeouts over 11.2 innings of work. Blackburn makes his seventh career appearance and seventh start against the Astros in this contest. He is 0-4 with an 11.25 ERA, a 1.833 WHIP, six walks and 14 strikeouts over 24 innings of work in those outings. Blackburn is 5-11 with a 6.41 ERA, a 1.538 WHIP, 40 walks and 106 strikeouts over 132 innings in 28 career appearances, 27 starts, at the RingCentral Coliseum. Astros starter Cristian Javier has a 7-1 record including a dominating win over the A's in May. |
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07-22-23 | Pirates v. Angels -1.5 | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pirates lost to the Angels on Friday to fall to 19-29 on the road. Meanwhile, the Angels improved to 28-22 at home. The Angels have won four straight, overall, while the Pirates have lost 10 of their last 12. The Angels will turn to Reid Detmers on Saturday, who has struggled on the road, but has a 3.63 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP at home. The Pirates are sending Bido (1-1) to the mound for his seventh start of the season. He is 1-1 with a 5.00 ERA and 25 strikeouts through 27 2/3 innings pitched. In his last outing on Sunday against the San Francisco Giants, the righty tossed 2 2/3 innings, giving up three earned runs while surrendering four hits. The 27-year-old has a 5.00 ERA and 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings over seven games this season, while allowing a batting average of .266 to opposing hitters. |
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07-21-23 | Astros -1.5 v. A's | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units - The implied probability of a win from the Astros is 72.5%. - Valdez has a 2.76 ERA and 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings in 18 games this season, while giving up a batting average of .227 to his opponents. - Athletics have won in 27, or 27.6%, of the 98 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year. - Houston is one of the most-disciplined teams at the plate this season, ranking fifth with an average of 7.8 strikeouts per game. |
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07-21-23 | Giants v. Nationals +1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units - The Nationals have posted a record of 50-44-0 against the spread this season. - So far this season, Giants starter Wood has not recorded a quality start. - The Nationals have the fifth-best batting average in the majors (.261). - Giants come in after finishing a long series in Cincinnati with SF's bats going very cold in the final two games. |
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07-20-23 | Astros -1.5 v. A's | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units - A's have lost in each of Harris's last five appearances. - Athletics have an implied victory probability of 38.9% in this matchup. - Athletics are last in MLB with a .221 batting average. - France has seven quality starts under his belt this season and is 4-3 with a 3.31 ERA |
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07-19-23 | Red Sox -1.5 v. A's | 5-6 | Loss | -129 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston right-hander Brayan Bello isn't close to arbitration eligibility, yet his impressive pitching has the Red Sox already thinking about offering the second-year player a contract extension. Bello is 7-5 with a 3.14 ERA this season, and he has been even more impressive lately, going 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA in his past six starts. He is scheduled to pitch this afternoon in Oakland in the rubber game of a three-game set against the Athletics. Opposing Bello will be Oakland left-hander Ken Waldichuk (2-6, 6.66 ERA). With the exception of a three-batter hiccup by opener Joe Jacques on Tuesday, the Red Sox have pitched brilliantly in the first two games against the A's, winning 7-0 on Monday before falling 3-0 in the rematch. Bello is 2-0 in July, having beaten the visiting Texas Rangers before the All-Star break and then the host Chicago Cubs in his first start back. The Red Sox offense has really come alive as of late as well and Boston has the highest OPS versus opposing southpaws since July 1st. Additionally, they the following numbers, .264 BA/.349 OBP/.422 SLG/.771 OPS against left-handed pitchers and .269/.341/.448/.789 in day games. |
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07-16-23 | Yankees -1.5 v. Rockies | 7-8 | Loss | -136 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Gerrit Cole hasn’t met the Rockies since 2019, and he’s 5-1 with a 2.47 ERA in seven career starts against Colorado. Cole, who’s enjoying a nice season, has thrown 12.1 innings at Coors Field, allowing six runs (four earned) on 13 hits in the process. I trust Cole to pitch well in Denver this Sunday, so give me the Yankees -1.5. On the other side, it’s hard to trust Chase Anderson, who’s yielded five or more earned runs in each of his last four outings. The current Yanks know Anderson well and are 17-for-79 with a whopping seven home runs against him. The current Rockies are only 16-for-87 with one home run versus Gerrit Cole. |
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07-16-23 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 5-7 | Loss | -142 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A pair of left-handers will match up today when Toronto's Yusei Kikuchi (7-3, 4.24 ERA) and Arizona's Tommy Henry (5-1, 3.75) take the mound. Kikuchi has fanned 96 batters in 93 1/3 innings but has been touched up for 22 homers in 18 starts. He has served up 111 in 559 2/3 innings over his four-plus major league seasons with the Seattle Mariners (2019-21) and Blue Jays. Kikuchi, 32, received a no-decision in his last outing when he gave up four runs and eight hits over five innings against the Chicago White Sox on July 6. He has allowed nine runs in 9 1/3 innings over his last two turns after allowing nine total over his previous six outings. The Japan native is 0-1 with a 4.09 ERA in two career starts against the Diamondbacks. Evan Longoria (1-for-2) has homered against Kikuchi. Henry has won four consecutive decisions since last losing on May 11 to the San Francisco Giants. Over his last four outings, the 25-year-old is 2-0 with a 1.48 ERA. Henry last pitched on July 5 when he blanked the New York Mets on two hits over six innings. He received a no-decision. |
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07-15-23 | Tigers v. Mariners -1.5 | 6-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mariners know Michael Lorenzen well and are 13-for-49 with a couple of home runs and 13 RBI against Detroit’s All-Star. Last season, Lorenzen emerged victorious in the Los Angeles Angels’ 8-7 win at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners tortured him for three earned runs on four hits and two walks across five innings, and Lorenzen gave up a solo home run to Julio Rodriguez and a two-run dinger to Carlos Santana, who’s now with the Pittsburgh Pirates. On the other side, the current Tigers are 5-for-16 with one home run and three RBI against George Kirby, who’s 1-1 in two career starts against Detroit. The Tigers hold an 87 wRC+ against the righties in July, so Kirby should fare well in this matchup. The Mariners own a 127 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers and 124 wRC+ versus the southpaws in July |
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07-14-23 | White Sox v. Braves -1.5 | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta (60-29) has won three of its last four games, 12 of its last 14, and has won 11 consecutive series dating back to Arizona, June 2-4. The Braves lead the NL East by 8 1/2 games over the Miami Marlins. The White Sox (38-54) have lost seven of their last nine games and are 0-3-1 in their last four series. They have dropped 15 of their last 23 and lost 18 of their last 27. Chicago is in fourth place in the American League Central, eight games behind Cleveland. The pitching matchup for the series opener features a pair of right-handers -- Atlanta veteran Charlie Morton (9-6, 3.43 ERA) vs. Chicago's Michael Kopech (3-7, 4.08). Kopech has already been tagged for a career-high 17 home runs in just 86 innings pitched this season. Morton, 39, has won his last four starts. In his last appearance on Friday, he pitched 6 1/3 innings and allowed one run on four hits, two walks and six strikeouts in a win over Tampa Bay. |
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07-09-23 | Royals v. Guardians -1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -111 | 4 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Kansas City Royals continue to struggle. They have lost five games in a row entering Saturday including losses in the opening two games of this series. Royals' starter Ryan Yarbrough is seeing his first action since May. The veteran has not been able to find a groove as seen in his 6.15 ERA. The Cleveland Guardians have won two of their last three series. Guardians’ starter Shane Bieber should dominate in this one. He just registered six shutout innings against the Royals in late June and has silenced the rivals throughout his career, posting a dazzling 2.80 ERA and an undefeated 6-0 record. Beiber is sporting a 3.02 ERA at home. |
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07-08-23 | Blue Jays -1.5 v. Tigers | 0-2 | Loss | -130 | 5 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Toronto Blue Jays appear to be heating up as the All-Star break approaches. They have won four straight heading into their road game against Detroit this afternoon. Toronto right-hander Kevin Gausman will start the second game of the series. Gausman (7-4, 3.04 ERA) leads the American League with 146 strikeouts and has only given up nine home runs in 18 starts. He has posted 13 quality starts, most recently on June 27 when he held San Francisco to one run and three hits while striking out 12 in six innings. In his last outing, Gausman gave up two runs and five hits while notching seven strikeouts against Boston. However, he labored at times, requiring 98 pitches to get through five innings. Gausman, who is 2-2 with a 3.41 ERA in 10 career starts against Detroit, will be making his last start prior to the All-Star Game. The Tigers will turn to Matt Manning, who is making only his fifth start of the season, and only his third start since spending some 2 months on the IL. He gave up 4 runs to the Blue Jays in April, and Manning has been below average in general so far in his career. Toronto has the far superior bullpen (at least in the back end), and we saw what happened on Friday when the Tigers’ bullpen got involved. |
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07-05-23 | Rockies v. Astros -1.5 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rockies are hoping to turn their season around but the Astros look to make a push in the division and control this game at home. The Astros should drive in runs at will with Kyle Tucker, Chas McCormick, and the rest of the lineup making hard contact and powering the ball against the Rockies pitchers to easily circle the bases. The Astros should limit a Rockies lineup that averages only 4.42 runs per game with J.P. France building off a scoreless outing and delivering multiple strong innings to allow the bullpen to close out the game with a comfortable lead. The Astros should win the game and cover the spread in a dominant win at home. |
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07-04-23 | Rockies v. Astros -1.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rockies have been miserable on the road this season with a record of just 13-29. Freeland has been a part of those struggles with an ERA over five away from Coors Field. Freeland is winless over his past eight starts, with an 0-4 record, a 7.15 ERA and a .932 opponents' OPS. He has allowed seven home runs over 39 innings during that span. The Astros have rebounded from a rough stretch playing without MVP candidate Yordan Alvarez to win seven of ten games leading into this series. The Astros are hitting .270 as a team over the past ten games with 37 extra-base hits including 15 home runs. While France has struggled at home this season, he has the good fortune of battling a Rockies team that averages just 3.74 runs on the road this season. Additionally, France was solid in his last two home starts, allowing a total of three runs in 13.2 innings of work. |
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07-02-23 | Marlins v. Braves -1.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta captured the first two games of the series, 16-4 on Friday and 7-0 on Saturday. The Braves have won seven straight games and 15 of their last 16. Atlanta has won eight of nine games against the Marlins, who they now lead by eight games in the NL East. Alcantara (3-6, 4.82 ERA) will be opposed by Atlanta's Spencer Strider (9-2, 3.73), the major league strikeout leader who is trying to become the fifth pitcher to reach double-digit wins. Braves Strider comes in with a strikeout rate of over 15 at home this season and a WHIP under one. He will be backed up by the most dominant offense in baseball in June, with the Braves hitting over .300 as a team in June and belting 61 home runs. |
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07-01-23 | White Sox -1.5 v. A's | 6-7 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Right-hander Dylan Cease (3-3, 4.04 ERA) is scheduled to start for the White Sox today. Cease made five consecutive solid starts in June but emerged with five straight no-decisions. He wound up with a 2.20 ERA, 42 strikeouts and 10 walks in 28 2/3 innings last month. He did not allow more than two runs in any outing, all of which wound up in being one-run games, with Chicago winning three of them. The fifth-year major-leaguer has dominated the A's in three career meetings, going 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA, 21 strikeouts and seven walks in 18 innings. The 27-year-old's only previous start in Oakland saw him throw six shutout innings, allowing three hits, in a 4-1 win last July. Oakland is flat-out the worst team in the league and is playing the part again following their June hot streak. |
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06-29-23 | Brewers +1.5 v. Mets | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mets' miserable June continued on Wednesday, when Blake Perkins laced a tiebreaking single in the sixth inning to help the Brewers to a 5-2 win. New York, which went 101-61 last season, has gone 7-17 this month to fall into 12th place in the National League. The Mets are 19th in the majors in OPS (.714) and 25th in ERA (4.59). Scherzer earned a win on Saturday when he allowed two runs over six innings as the Mets beat the Philadelphia Phillies 4-2. He is 3-4 with a 2.63 ERA in 12 career games (11 starts) against the Brewers. Scherzer lost at Milwaukee on April 4, when he yielded five runs on eight hits in 5 1/3 innings. Houser last pitched on Friday, when he tossed a scoreless inning of relief in a 7-1 win over the Cleveland Guardians. |
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06-28-23 | Tigers v. Rangers -1.5 | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Detroit starter, Joey Wentz, has been horrific this season with a 6.72 ERA and a 5.47 xERA paired with a 5.46 FIP. He also has just a 63 ERA+, so all signs point to Wentz not having a good game. He’s 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA in June and will have to travel to the hitter’s paradise known as Globe Life Field for today’s start. This will be the southpaw’s first trip to Arlington this season, but it won’t be his first start against the Rangers. At the end of May, Texas knocked Wentz around in Detroit for 7 hits in 4.1 innings but managed to only get 1 run across – an odd occurrence from a powerful lineup. It only gets worse for Wentz too because he’s been worse on the road than at Comerica Park this year. In 6 starts away from home, the lefty is 1-5 with a 7.48 ERA and a .286 opponent batting average. |
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06-27-23 | Padres -1.5 v. Pirates | 4-9 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The San Diego Padres are in need of wins and I expect them to rebound in this series against a Pirates squad that has been a disaster this month. The Pirates now look similar to last year. They recently lost 10 in a row and have just one win in their last 13 bouts due to a slumping offense. Padres’ starter Yu Darvish has shined against the Pirates in his career, sporting an outstanding 2.63 ERA and a 4-2 record in nine career meetings. Pirates’ starter Rich Hill has squandered six runs in his last 10.2 innings pitched and has a 4.62 ERA at home. The Padres have been stellar against lefties this season, posting a .778 OPS compared to a .695 OPS against righties. |
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06-26-23 | Nationals v. Mariners -1.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mariners have won two of their last three games and five of their last seven home games. They are playing very well offensively at the moment and scored 27 runs in their last three games. Expect them to play well offensively in this game because Williams has struggled on the mound, especially on the road where he has given up 16 runs in his last four starts. With the Nationals also having the third-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down Seattle’s hot bats. The Nationals have lost seven of their last nine games and five of their last eight road games. They have struggled offensively and scored only eight runs in their last three games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because Castillo has done a good job on the mound for Seattle, giving up nine earned runs in his last four starts. He gave up only two runs in his last three home starts and will keep Washington’s offense in check. |
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06-26-23 | Brewers +1.5 v. Mets | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Milwaukee Brewers are playing better after a rough patch, going 6-3 in their last nine games after posting a series win in Cleveland on the weekend. The New York Mets continue to struggle and are probably the most disappointing team in the big leagues this year. They have lost six of their last eight games. Mets’ starter Justin Verlander has not been nearly as dominant as we’re used to seeing. The Cy Young winner allowed four runs in three innings against the Braves three starts ago and another four runs in his previous outing against the Astros last week. The Mets are not winning games with him on the mound, losing in four of his last five outings. |
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06-24-23 | Royals v. Rays -1.5 | 9-4 | Loss | -134 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Royals were smacked around 11-3 on Friday night in St. Pete, splashing cold water on the team after a surprising 6-5 win in the series opener. Kansas City turns to RHP Jordan Lyles, and it has been an adventure for the veteran right-hander all season. He is 0-11 with a 6.72 ERA, and on pace to be the first 20-game loser in the majors since Mike Maroth in 2003 with the Detroit Tigers. Kansas City is 0-5 in the last 5 third games in a series, while going 12-39 in the last 51 against teams with a winning overall record. The Rays are 35-17 in their last 52 games following a win, while going 51-17 in the last 68 games at Tropicana Field, which is a winning percentage of .750. |
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06-23-23 | Nationals v. Padres -1.5 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nationals are 3-14 over the past 17 games with losing streaks of six and five games. Yesterday afternoon, Washington gave up four unearned runs in the makeup game against Arizona on what originally was an off day -- before flying cross country. The Friday pitching matchup will feature Washington left-hander Patrick Corbin (4-8, 4.89 ERA) and Padres right-hander Joe Musgrove (5-2, 4.22). Neither pitcher faced the other team last month. Over his past five starts, Musgrove is 4-0 with a 2.15 ERA, a 1.091 WHIP and a .243 opponents' batting average. Corbin is 0-3 over his past three starts with a 4.76 ERA, a 2.000 WHIP and a .361 opponents' batting average. In 23 career appearances (18 starts) against the Padres, he is 7-10 with a 4.76 ERA, a 1.478 WHIP and a .285 opponents' batting average. |
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06-21-23 | Rockies v. Reds -1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cincinnati Reds are riding a 10-game winning streak -- matching their longest run since 1957 -- heading into the finale of a three-game series against the visiting Colorado Rockies on Wednesday afternoon. The Reds have won 13 of 15 and 32 of their last 52 since a 7-15 start to the season. At 39-35, Cincinnati is four games over .500, its best mark since ending the 2021 season with an 83-79 record. Cincinnati starter, Andrew Abbott (3-0, 0.00 ERA) has yet to allow a run in three starts, covering 17 2/3 innings. Since the mound was moved to its current distance in 1893, Abbott is the only pitcher in major league history to open his career with three scoreless starts of at least five innings. Abbott will be facing Colorado for the first time. The Rockies, attempting to snap a seven-game losing streak, will look to conclude their 10-game road trip on a positive note. Right-hander Connor Seabold (1-3, 5.88 ERA) gets the starting assignment, his 10th start and 17th appearance of the season. Seabold is making his second start this season against Cincinnati. He allowed six runs, four earned, on eight hits over 4 1/3 innings on May 15. |
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06-20-23 | Rockies v. Reds -1.5 | 6-8 | Win | 109 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Reds will send right-hander Ben Lively (4-4, 4.07 ERA) to the mound on Tuesday for his first career start against Colorado. However, he did make a relief appearance against the Rockies on May 15, when he took a loss after allowing a run in 2 1/3 innings. Lively matched a season high with 10 hits allowed against the Kansas City Royals on Wednesday in his most recent start. However, he allowed just two runs in 5 2/3 innings to earn his fourth win. The Rockies will counter with right-hander Noah Davis (0-1, 6.17 ERA). Davis was an 11th-round selection by the Reds in 2018, and he started his professional career in the Cincinnati minor league system in 2019. Tuesday will mark the fourth major league start of the season for Davis, but his first since allowing seven runs on seven hits in two innings in an 11-4 home loss to Arizona on April 29. Davis subsequently landed on the IL due to right elbow inflammation. After returning to make one rehab appearance for Albuquerque, he was optioned to the Triple-A club on June 1. In seven Triple-A starts overall this year, Davis is 0-2 with a 6.31 ERA. |
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06-18-23 | Phillies -1.5 v. A's | 3-2 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If the Athletics are back to losing consistently, it's safe to bet against them every night again. Especially with a streaking Philadelphia team in town and their top starting pitcher on the mound for the start. Active Oakland batters have just 10 combined PA against Wheeler in their careers, and that unfamiliarity should benefit the pitcher, especially with his diverse 5-pitch repertoire. Hogan Harris can give Oakland a chance, but the Athletics' offense, defense, and bullpen won't be much backup. Philadelphia has won 12 of 14 and five straight. Take the team that's better, hotter, and needs a win more, which is the Philadelphia Phillies. |
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06-16-23 | Blue Jays v. Rangers +1.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a great price to get the best offensive team in baseball as a home dog. Perez has had three subpar outings this season, all on the road, but at home, Texas is undefeated in Perez's four starts where he is 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA in four starts covering 25 2/3 innings. The Rangers are also 6-2 against the runline as a home underdog this season. Blue Jays starter Gausman allowed six runs on seven hits with four walks and four strikeouts over 4 2/3 innings in his last start. Even if Toronto wins, three of their last four victories have only come by one run. Take the Rangers at +1.5. |
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06-14-23 | Rockies v. Red Sox -1.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rockies starting rotation has been decimated by injuries and cuts (shoutout Jose Urena), but one guy that has remained healthy the entire time has been Austin Gomber. Unfortunately for Colorado, he’s turning into Jose Urena 2.0 because he’s been throwing batting practice in his last few outings. His ERA is up to 7.57, his xERA sits at 7.6 and his FIP is an absurd 6.75 – all of that means his struggles are no fluke. To list a few of the things that Gomber has struggled in: 1st percentile in xBA (.323), 2nd percentile in xSLG (.582), 6th percentile in strikeout rate (14%) and 25th percentile in barrel rate (9.9%). It’s not like the lefty had a rough start to the season and has bounced back either because in June, he’s allowed 9 runs, 17 hits, 5 walks and 4 home runs in 6.2 innings. Those 2 starts were against the Royals and Padres who rank 15th and 29th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching in the last 30 days, as for the Red Sox, they rank 7th with a 124 wRC+. Boston starter Whitlock missed a month of action, but now he’s back and better than ever. In 3 outings since returning, the 27-year-old has allowed 6 runs and 16 hits while racking up 15 strikeouts in 16 innings. Although his sinker can run him into trouble sometimes, Whitlock still has the arsenal to keep the Rockies lineup off balance. |
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06-12-23 | Heat v. Nuggets -8.5 | 89-94 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The spread is pretty wide here, but after the last two games, where the Nuggets won by double digits on the road, I think it is warranted. The Nuggets came into this series as a heavy favorite and just a flat out better team. Miami has been overachieving all season and Erik Spoelstra h as been making the right adjustments, outcoaching everyone is his wake. But he met his match with Malone, who has been one step ahead of the Heat. First he used the Nugget's size to his advantage, and then when Miami adjusted, they went outside and punished them from three. The Nuggets also shut down the role players that killed the Celtics and let Butler and Adebayo do their thing. A championship is so close they can taste it, and they will take care of business in front of the home crowd. Take the Nuggets to cover. |
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06-11-23 | Twins v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Gausman has been lights out in Toronto with a 2-0 record and a 1.65 ERA and has been mediocre on the road with a 3-3 record with a 3.76 ERA. Fortunately for Gausman, today’s start will be at home. This will be his 3rd straight start at home too, and in his last 2 starts combined, he’s surrendered just 1 run, 9 hits and a whopping 24 strikeouts in 13.2 innings. His opponent on today will be the Twins, and even though they lit up the scoreboard on Saturday, this is actually a great matchup for Gausman. Gausman, more than likely will use his splitter about 40% of the time today, and it’s gotten a 47.5% strikeout rate while limiting hitters to a .169 batting average. That’s a pitch that Minnesota has been terrible against this season as they rank 29th against splitters, with only the White Sox being worse. |
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06-11-23 | Diamondbacks -1.5 v. Tigers | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Arizona Diamondbacks have been a reliable squad to back on the road and remain one of the hottest teams in the big leagues, sporting an 8-2 record in their last ten games including an 11-5 win on Friday and a 5-0 victory on Saturday. The Detroit Tigers are decimated with injuries and have lost eight consecutive games. D-Backs’ starter Zac Gallen continues to dazzle. The ace has conceded just four runs in his last 17.2 innings pitched including strong outings against the Phillies and Braves in that span. Tigers’ starter Joey Wentz has been clobbered, squandering 17 runs in his last 15.1 innings pitched. Seven of the D-Backs' last 10 wins have been by two or more runs. |
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06-09-23 | A's v. Brewers -1.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The A’s are looking for their first three-game winning streak of the season, but I doubt their chances to beat the Brewers on Friday night. Luis Medina has been awful thus far, posting a catastrophic 11.68 ERA and 2.27 WHIP through three road starts (12.1 innings pitched). Although Oakland’s offense has shown signs of life lately, I’m backing the Brewers because of their pitching staff. The Athletics’ bullpen has been horrible for most of the season. It has improved over the last ten days, tallying a 3.96 ERA and 3.26 FIP, but the Brewers’ bullpen has accounted for a 2.96 ERA and 3.73 FIP in that span while going 2-0 with three saves. |
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06-07-23 | Dodgers v. Reds +1.5 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Reds have won six of their last 10 games. They are playing well offensively, scoring 11 runs in their last three games. They have hit the ball well against right-handers and Syndergaard hasn’t been effective on the mound this season, giving up 14 runs in his last three starts. He gave up nine runs in his last two road starts, and with Los Angeles’ bullpen being one of the worst in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Reds in this game. The Dodgers have lost three of their last four games and five of their last eight road games. Even though Williamson has struggled on the mound for the Reds, he has done a better job at home where he gave up five earned runs in two starts. With the Dodgers struggling against left-handers this season, they will have a hard time keeping up with the Reds in this game. |
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06-06-23 | A's v. Pirates -1.5 | 11-2 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A's right-hander James Kaprielian (0-6, 8.12 ERA) is scheduled to start opposite Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller (7-1, 3.25). Kaprielian has split time this season between Oakland and Triple-A Las Vegas. He is the first A's pitcher to start a season 0-6 since Mike Mohler lost his first eight decisions in 1997. Kaprielian has the dubious distinction of pitching no more than seven innings in all 54 of his career starts. Keller, who has never faced the A's, has won four decisions in a row and has notched at least eight strikeouts in seven straight outings while establishing himself as the Pirates' ace. Of the A's 62 games this season, they've lost by more than one run 49 times. They are now 5-26 on the road. |
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06-05-23 | Tigers v. Phillies -1.5 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Phillies will hand the ball to Aaron Nola (4-4, 4.70 ERA) today. Nola has been effective in his career against the Tigers, posting a 1-0 record with a 1.93 ERA in three starts. The Tigers gave up four runs in the bottom of the ninth inning and fell 6-2 against the Chicago White Sox on Sunday. Jake Burger hit a walk-off grand slam. The Tigers, who received a two-run homer from Spencer Torkelson in that loss, will arrive in Philadelphia after being swept by the White Sox in a three-game series. Detroit starter, Wentz has had a rough first half of the season with a 7.28 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP in 11 starts, and he’s had very little run support in any of those outings. But even without his offense scoring for him, Wentz has the tendency to put his team in a hole early on. He has a .289 xBA with a 45% hard-hit rate and a 9.4% barrel rate which all rank in the bottom 30% in their respective category. |
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06-04-23 | Heat +8.5 v. Nuggets | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Expect Erik Spoelstra to go back to the zone he used in most of the Boston series and that will help slow down the Nuggets. That defensive gimmick will help a lot more in Game 2 when the Heat have their legs back since they have Friday and Saturday off. There's no doubt that going seven games against Boston had an effect on their performance on Thursday along with the altitude. Strus, Caleb Martin and Robinson combined for 2-for-23 in Game 1 and all three will bounce back in Game 2. Martin has been terrific in the postseason, averaging 13.5 points and shooting 44% from beyond the arc. But the biggest factor is Butler getting a couple of days off to rest his ankle and he will be looking to get to the line a lot more in this game. The Heat will push the Nuggets to the limit in Game 2 and will shoot a lot more than two free throws. |
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06-03-23 | Angels v. Astros -1.5 | 6-9 | Win | 115 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cristian Javier (6-1, 2.97 ERA) has the starting assignment for the Astros as they attempt to clinch the series today. The right-hander has won each of his past four starts, including a 10-1 victory on Sunday against the Oakland Athletics when he allowed one run on four hits and three walks with three strikeouts over five innings. Javier has a 1.96 ERA during that four-game stretch with 24 strikeouts against seven walks in 23 innings. Javier is 4-1 with a 2.65 ERA over nine career appearances (five starts) against the Angels. He earned a 5-4 victory over the Angels on May 10 after allowing two runs on three hits and one walk with a season-high 11 strikeouts over six innings. Patrick Sandoval (3-4, 3.42 ERA) will make the start for the Angels today. The left-hander absorbed the 2-0 loss against the Miami Marlins on Sunday, allowing two runs on eight hits and two walks with two strikeouts over six innings. Sandoval has surrendered two or fewer earned runs in seven of 10 starts this season. Sandoval is 0-4 with a 7.55 ERA in eight career appearances (seven starts) against Houston, which selected him in the 11th round of the 2015 draft and traded him to the Angels in July 2018 in exchange for catcher Martin Maldonado. In his most recent start against Houston, Sandoval did not factor into the decision on May 8 after allowing four earned runs on seven hits and no walks with two strikeouts over 6 1/3 innings. |
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05-29-23 | Heat v. Celtics -7 | 103-84 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I'm usually not about chalk and big numbers in this situation, but Miami just had one of the most heartbreaking losses in the history of the NBA playoffs. Not to mention that they nearly won a game where Butler and Adebayo's jump shots were M.I.A. Butler's performance has regressed in the last two games where he's starting to show some fatigue. He's getting no lift on his jumpers and drives and it shows where Boston had blocked his shot 10 times in this series. Boston has also found a way to slow down Adebayo with the length of Robert Williams and the experience of Al Horford. Martin, Max Strus, Vincent and Duncan Robinson are not enough to defeat a more athletic Boston team even without Malcolm Brogdon. Tatum will go bonkers at home in Game 7. |
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05-29-23 | Braves -1.5 v. A's | 2-7 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With a couple of convalescents on the mound, I can only rely on Atlanta’s offense to make a difference. Also, Oakland’s bullpen is arguably the worst in baseball and sits at 6.36 ERA and 5.50 FIP for the season. The Athletics’ relievers have accounted for a 5.05 ERA and 4.32 FIP in the last ten days and 35.2 innings of work, while the Braves’ bullpen has thrown 33.2 frames in that span, posting a 4.54 ERA and 3.85 FIP. The Braves have won 11 consecutive games against the Athletics dating back to 2008. Atlanta is undoubtedly a much better offensive team than Oakland. |
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05-28-23 | Astros -1.5 v. A's | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Oakland has been awful all season and one has to credit Mark Kotsay for keeping his team competitive with a franchise that is on par with the Cleveland Indians of the early part of the movie “Major League.” The A’s continue to flounder and it’s hard to have faith in a team that entered Saturday with nine straight losses, not to mention 43 defeats in their first 53 games where only 10 of those 43 losses came by one run. Houston bounced back nicely from two straight losses by taking the opening game of this series. The Astros should be able to take advantage of Medina, especially his wildness, while Javier shouldn’t have problems as he has in the past here. Take Houston to win on getaway day and clinch the series. |
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05-26-23 | Mets v. Rockies +1.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Colorado has a 12-9 run line record following a win, the fifth-highest win percentage in those games. It also sports a 10-8 run line record as home underdogs. New York has a 7-14 run line record as road favorites and the worst overall run line record in MLB this season, too. I'm betting on Colorado to cover at home in game one. NY is traveling from Chicago after a Thursday night game with the Cubbies after dropping the first two games of the series. It's lost some momentum from its five-game win streak and could be on upset alert Friday, even with its ace on the bump. The Rockies boast much better splits at home (.274 BA/.329 OBP/.439 SLG/.768 OPS) than they do in road games (.234/.299/.349/.648) and hit right-handed pitchers (.260/.321/.404/.725) better than lefties (.240/.294/.367/.662). I'll bet on them to cover against the inconsistent Scherzer |
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05-25-23 | Marlins v. Rockies +1.5 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kyle Freeland broke into the big leagues with Colorado in 2017 and knows how to pitch at Coors Field. He also tends to bounce back well from poor outings. He had been particularly sharp over his previous three outings. Freeland had two starts which he didn't allow a run and he was a hard-luck loser in the other, allowing two runs over seven innings of a 2-0 loss at Pittsburgh. Freeland has pitched well in five career outings, three starts, against Miami, going 2-0 with a 3.60 ERA. On the other side, Marlins starter Braxton Garrett is more of a wild card here, going 0-1 with a 3.12 ERA over 8 2/3 innings and making his Coors Field debut. Miami is also just 4-13 in their last 17 games played in Colorado. |
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05-21-23 | Celtics v. Heat +3.5 | 102-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics are inexplicably three-point favorites in this one. What does Miami have to do to get some respect? I just don't see how you can favor the Celtics in this one, given that the Heat have not lost at home so far in the playoffs. The Celtics are the higher seed and the more talented team, but I have no confidence in their ability to close out a game in crunch time, especially against this Heat team, which has come up big time after time. The Celtics are 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 meetings versus the Heat. The Celtics could possibly win this but it would be only by a bucket late. Take the Heat getting the points. |
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05-19-23 | Heat +9 v. Celtics | 111-105 | Win | 100 | 23 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I picked the Heat to cover in game 1 but I honestly did not expect them to actually win the game. Now they are 9 point underdogs and again, that feels like a lot. While I fully expect the Celtics to win in this game -- they have to or they are pretty much done. But Miami is not the type of team you blow out -- and 9 points is a lot. I just can't see the Celtics winning by double digits here. Miami won't shoot 52% from three again but they will play good enough defense and make enough big shots to keep this game close down the stretch. The Celtics will survive, but the Heat will cover. Take Miami getting the points. |
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05-19-23 | Diamondbacks -1.5 v. Pirates | 3-13 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Diamondbacks are proving they are the real deal. They have won five of their last six games including a series win against the Giants and continue to dazzle at the plate. The Pittsburgh Pirates are plummeting. They have yet to win a series this month and have dropped seven of their last ten games and are just 1-5 in their last six home bouts. It’s been nearly an automatic win when Zac Gallen is on the hill. The right-hander has led Arizona to victory in seven of his last eight starts. He is an ace, ranking near the top in all pitching categories including ERA and WHIP. He has conceded either zero or one run in five of his last seven outings. Pirates’ starter Johan Oviedo is struggling, allowing 18 runs in his last 17.2 innings. I recommend the run line as each Diamondbacks' win with Gallen on the hill has been by at least two runs. |
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05-17-23 | Heat +8 v. Celtics | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For the third time in four years, the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics are squaring off in the Eastern Conference finals. Miami won the first go around in 2020 while the Celtics took care of business last year. Boston has had a tendency to play loose at home in the playoffs, and coming off that historic game 7 win, I see them having a letdown here. Miami will be rested and ready to go, looking to steal one here. In the four meeting between the two this year, three were decided by less than the spread for this game. This spread seems too big, so take the Heat here getting the points. |
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05-15-23 | Diamondbacks -1.5 v. A's | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units There is no escaping the fact that the Athletics are going to take their lumps this season with a transitioning roster and suspect pitching. Oakland has actually been worse at home than on the road with just four wins heading into their series finale with Texas. Muller has been slightly more effective at home, taking advantage of ample foul territory that has proven to be somewhat of a saving grace for Oakland's pitchers. However, he still owns a hard-hit percentage of nearly 50% and has had trouble putting batters away this season with a marginal strikeout percentage of just 14%. Kelly, meanwhile, has been an outstanding road pitcher this season with an ERA just north of a run per game. He faces an Oakland lineup that is hitting just .214 at home this season. Meanwhile, as a team, the Diamondbacks are hitting .266 against lefties this season. |
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05-11-23 | Rays v. Yankees +1.5 | 8-2 | Loss | -160 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Yankees are playing their best baseball in nearly a month and have scored nearly 30 runs over the last three games. The return of Aaron Judge to the lineup has paid immediate dividends. German has pitched well at home, with an ERA a run lower at Yankee Stadium compared to the road. He kept the Rays in check last week at Tampa, allowing just four hits in 5+ innings of work. Rasmussen has pitched well also but I like the Yankees in this spot coming off a much easier series with the A's compared with the Rays tough three-game set with Baltimore. |
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05-10-23 | Heat +3.5 v. Knicks | 103-112 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Heat have been beasts against the spread, going 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall. That includes all four games of this series. Also, the Heat are 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings in New York. Likewise, the Knicks are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest and 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games overall. I have to stick with the battle-tested Heat in this one to continue their streak of ATS wins. They have been here before and know how to win on the road. Now, I actually think the Knicks find a way to pull this game out, but it will be a slim margin and the Heat will cover. Take Miami here. |
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05-10-23 | Rockies +1.5 v. Pirates | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Colorado has won six of its last eight and the Rockies are 5-1 in the last 6 when playing against a team with a winning record. Pittsburgh has stumbled a bit of late losing seven of its last eight and the Pirates have struggled against right-handed starting pitching, losing each of the last five in that situation. Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Antonio Senzatela has had just one start after opening the season on the injury list. The right-hander gave up just three hits and one run in five innings last Friday in a 1-0 loss to the New York Mets. Senzatela had command of all of his pitches through five innings but did not receive any run support from teammates. Pittsburgh's Rich Hill is coming off a poor outing in which the veteran left-hander allowed eight hits and four runs in 5 ⅓ innings with Pittsburgh losing 4-0 to Toronto last Friday. |
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05-09-23 | Suns v. Nuggets -5.5 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nuggets are primed to get back into the win column as they return home and there's little doubt that they'll return to their games one and two form. Denver has been dominant at home this season and considering how strong their depth has been in those home games, that is sure to be a massive advantage in this one. They won't let Booker and Durant continue to beat them and with little help beyond those two on Phoenix, keeping pace will be difficult for the Suns. Additionally, Denver is 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games and are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two teams. |
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05-09-23 | 76ers v. Celtics -7 | 115-103 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics have largely outplayed the Sixers in this series, yet here we are, tied at 2 games apiece. The series shifts back to Boston and after a bitter, bitter defeat on Sunday afternoon in game 4, the Celtics will come out fired up and focused. They went from taking complete control of this series and having a chance to close it out to now facing a critical game where a loss would result in an elimination game in Philly. After losing game 5 at home to the Bucks in the second round last year, and needing to win games 6 and 7 to advance, I can't see history repeating itself here. Take the Celtics here. |
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05-08-23 | Warriors +3 v. Lakers | 101-104 | Push | 0 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Warriors might not win this game outright but they will find a way to be in it going into the final seconds. Curry continues to be elite but he'll find a way to get the supporting cast far more involved in this one. Steve Kerr did a great job after Davis' game-one dominance to make adjustments and there's no doubt that he'll be able to find a way to disrupt him again in game four. The supporting cast showed up for the Lakers in game three but given their own inconsistencies, it'll be expected to see a drop-off, especially with confidence high. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss and are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight-up loss. |
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05-05-23 | Nuggets +4.5 v. Suns | 114-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Denver might be hitting the road but they have a great chance to make it a 3-0 series lead and will at least keep it close in this one. They have far too much depth for Phoenix to run away with the game, even at home. Jokic and Murray continue to be one of the best duos in the league and their ability to dictate the game and generate efficient offense, will keep them within a possession without a doubt. Expect the offensive and defensive glass to be key as well, especially considering how strong the Nuggets have looked in that department. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Nuggets are 8-1 ATS in their last nine Friday games and are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up win. The Suns, on the other hand, are 0-4 ATS in their last four conference semifinals and are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings against Denver. |
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05-05-23 | Red Sox +1.5 v. Phillies | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philadelphia ace Zack Wheeler (3-1, 3.86 ERA) will get the start. The right-hander dazzled in his previous outing last Friday in Houston, fanning seven batters through six scoreless innings in a 6-1 win. Boston's bats have been hot, though, as the Red Sox have won six straight, tallying at least six runs in each contest. They are coming off a dominating 11-5 win over the Toronto Blue Jays on Thursday to complete a four-game sweep. The Red Sox have great splits versus right-handers (.274 BA/.341 OBP/.474 SLG/.815 OPS), including 33 homers, 46 doubles, and 129 RBI. 4-1 in their last five road games vs. a team with a losing record and 7-3 in their last ten vs. a right-handed starter. The Red Sox will also have their ace on the mound as left-hander Chris Sale (2-2, 6.75) will be aiming to deliver another stellar start after his vintage outing against the Cleveland Guardians on Sunday. The 34-year-old allowed just one run on three hits over 6 1/3 innings against Cleveland in a 7-1 victory. |
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05-04-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -5.5 | 100-127 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The idea of the Lakers winning two in a row in such a short time frame, at the Chase Center, doesn't add up, as the Warriors will come away with the win to even the series. The Lakers had a great gameplan in using Lebron in unique ways but the Warriors now have that tape and there's no doubt that the defense will be better prepared. The frontcourt mismatch was expected to land in the Lakers' favor but with the way Looney has been playing, there's no doubt both teams have the ability to hit the offensive and defensive glass. Expect Golden State's depth to be too much for LA in this one. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last six Thursday games, while the Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up loss. |
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05-04-23 | Mariners -1.5 v. A's | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Athletics have lost six of their last seven games and nine of their last 10 home games. They have struggled offensively and scored only eight runs in their last three games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because they have struggled against right-handed pitchers this season and Kirby has done a good job on the mound for the Mariners, especially on the road where he has given up only two runs in two starts. He gave up six runs in his last three starts against the Athletics and with Seattle having the fourth-best bullpen in the league, they won’t have trouble keeping Oakland’s offense in check. The Mariners also struggled in recent games, but they’ve won two of their last three road games. They are playing well offensively, scoring 12 runs in their last three road games. Expect them to play well offensively in this game because Rucinski didn’t look good in his first start of the season, giving up five runs in that game. With the Athletics also having the worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Mariners in this game. Go with Seattle to cover the run line. |
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05-03-23 | Brewers v. Rockies +1.5 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Brewers own a 70 OPS+ against the left-handed pitchers in 2023, and I’m expecting them to continue to struggle against Kyle Freeland. On the other side, Eric Lauer will have a tall task to keep the Rockies quiet, and given his awful displays at Coors Field in the past. Lauer is 1-5 with an 8.39 ERA in 11 career starts against the Rockies, and the numbers get worse in Denver. Six of his starts have come there, where he is 0-5 with a bloated 15.91 ERA. Freeland pitched relatively well in his last start against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Friday but was tagged with the loss despite having a quality start. He is 3-2 with a 2.32 ERA in five career starts against the Brewers. |
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05-02-23 | Heat v. Knicks -5.5 | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Jimmy Butler injury looms large and given how much he has met to this team, his absence would be too much to overcome for this team. The Heat have struggled on the road overall this season and grabbing a win for the second-straight night in Madison Square Garden will be asking too much. For the Knicks, they have a few injuries of their own that they're worrying about but with their scoring depth at hand, finding success on the offensive end will extend this game and make things difficult for Miami to keep pace. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss and are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between the two sides. |
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05-01-23 | 76ers v. Celtics -9 | 119-115 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics will roll in Monday's matchup and with the advantages across the board, there's no doubt that they'll start this series strong. Being without Embiid is going to be too much for the 76ers to overcome, on both ends of the court. The 76ers will match the scoring to keep pace with Tatum and Brown, let alone one of the deepest backcourts in the league. Their frontcourt will also have the advantage against Paul Reed. Add in a road game and have to shake some rust off, and it makes sense that this one is determined to be a double-digit win for Boston. Additionally, according to covers.com, Boston is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning straight-up record, are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings against the 76ers in Boston, and is 5-0 ATS against the 76ers in the last five meetings. |
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04-28-23 | Kings +7.5 v. Warriors | 118-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I just don't think the Kings are ready to go down, and they certainly won't go down without a fight. They showed that they can go toe to toe with the Warriors in the Chase Center, as they should have won game 4 but blew it late. That near miss will be top of mind Friday night. Of the five games played thus far, three of them have been decided by less than 7 points and another has been decided by 8 points. So these games have pretty much all been close, with all going down to the wire. Fox should be ready to go and I like the Kings to keep it close enough to cover. Take the Kings getting the points. |
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04-27-23 | Celtics v. Hawks +7 | 128-120 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hawks are riding a wave of momentum from the game five win and even if they don't win game six, they have all the tools and confidence to take it to within one possession. Not only are they at home but they also welcome Murray into the fold as well, which will give them plenty of offensive options beyond just Young. The Celtics have been solid but with the frontcourt struggling, the Hawks have been able to dominate on the offensive and defensive glass, which is a trend bound to continue in this close one. Additionally, the Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four Thursday games. |
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04-27-23 | A's v. Angels -1.5 | 7-8 | Loss | -135 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Angels have won three of their last five games and five of their last seven home games. They are playing well offensively, scoring 19 runs in their last five games. They will play well offensively in this game because they have done a great job against left-handers this season and Sears has struggled on the mound, especially on the road where he gave up seven runs in two starts. He gave up two runs in his only start against the Angels and with Oakland having the worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Angels in this game. The Athletics have lost three of their last five games and four of their last six road games. With the exception of the first game of the series, they have struggled offensively, scoring more than four runs twice in their last five games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because they don’t hit the ball well against right-handers and they haven’t had a lot of success against Ohtani, who gave up two runs in his last five starts. He gave up only one run in his last four starts against the Athletics and will keep their offense in check once again, so go with Los Angeles to cover the run line. |
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04-26-23 | Heat v. Bucks -11.5 | 128-126 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After Monday's disheartening and shocking loss, I fully expect to see an angry, focused Bucks team. They have no choice, because a loss ends their season -- and that would be embarrassing as they are the top seed and had the best record in the NBA. Giannis was great on Monday and that's a great sign. There is no way he lets his team lose at home. Middleton and Holiday were subpar and you can bet that Giannis will light a fire under them and they will bounce back with big games at home. This one has all the earmarks of a Milwaukee blowout, as Miami focuses on the game 6 closeout at home. Take the Bucks here giving up the points. |
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04-26-23 | Lakers +4.5 v. Grizzlies | 99-116 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Grizzlies might be at home but the Lakers have already shown that they can muster up a performance strong enough to win on the road. Add in Lebron and Anthony Davis dominating on both ends and it's asking far too much of the Grizzlies to match that expected output. Morant is elite but without a ton of help in the scoring department, it's difficult to see an avenue where they keep pace with the Lakers. Add in injuries to the frontcourt and it's clear they are missing that advantage on the offensive and defensive glass. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Lakers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams. |
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04-25-23 | Clippers v. Suns -12 | 130-136 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units What exactly do the Clippers have left to play for? With Kawhi Leonard out and Paul George still sidelined, LA doesn't have a fighter's chance of advancing. The motivation to keep the score respectable isn't there, even in a closeout game. Russell Westbrook's hustle will go unappreciated if he's asked to carry too much of the offensive load, which isn't his forte. Phoenix has been on its A-game since dropping game one, beating Los Angeles inside-out. In game four, the Suns scored 48 points in the paint and outrebounded the Clippers 49-33 with 14 offensive rebounds. They also hit 9 of 22 shots from three (40.9%). While this is a large spread, I believe it's just. The Clippers, 5-23 ATS in their last 28 games playing on two days of rest, aren't suited for a battle in the valley on Tuesday. If this game's even close for more than a quarter, I'll be surprised. The Suns have the killer instinct required to put away a down and desperate Clippers team. |
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04-25-23 | Wolves +10 v. Nuggets | 109-112 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minnesota won't win this game but this series has shown that they'll at least be able to keep thing interesting and close in this game four showdown. The big men on Minnesota have had their way the last few games and their ability to improve this group's rebounding on both ends is sure to help. Anthony Edwards is the top scorer in this game and his ability to be explosive gives them another dimension towards keeping things close. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Timberwolves are 29-7 ATS in the last 33 meetings in Denver. |
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04-23-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +4 | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The big game for Denver was game 3 to essentially put the Timberwolves away. Since an 0-3 deficit is virtually a death knell for a team, Denver may take the foot off the gas a bit here while Minnesota will be focused on not being swept and getting at least one win. Make no mistake Denver will end this in 5 back in Denver, but Minnesota finds a way to win here at home on Sunday night. Also, the Timberwolves are 18-8 against the spread in their last 26 Sunday games. Take the Timberwolves here getting the points. |
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04-23-23 | Celtics -5.5 v. Hawks | 129-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a great opportunity to lean heavily on a Celtics team that has a huge talent edge over the Hawks. Boston spent far too much of game three trying to outscore the Hawks rather than dig in defensively. Atlanta dominated the glass against what appeared to be a disinterested Boston front line. Boston failed to record a blocked shot for the first time in the series and the league's fifth-best defensive unit allowed Atlanta to shoot 56%. Look for Boston to make the necessary adjustments in game four to gain back control against an Atlanta team that was given free rein to drive to the basket for easy buckets in game three. I expect to see a heavy dose of Celtics defense in game three and a comfortable Boston win. |
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04-20-23 | Kings +6 v. Warriors | 97-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Draymond Green just can't keep his emotions in check and that has cost the Warriors throughout his career, as he has been absent before from big games like this one because of his actions on the court. I think the Warriors will hold on here for the win, just because I have complete faith in Steph Curry to not let his team down. Plus, the Warriors are like night and day when playing at home and on the road. They are great at home and awful on the road. The home crowd here will push them to a win, but the scrappy Kings will cover. Take Sacramento getting the points. |
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04-19-23 | Heat v. Bucks -6 | 122-138 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With all eyes glued to the status of Giannis, it's actually the injury woes for Miami that will make this game fall in Milwaukee's favor. The Heat will be without their top perimeter threat in Herro and could be without one of their most experienced backcourt pieces in Lowry. For the Bucks, the supporting cast isn't going to be a shocked in Wednesday's showdown to have carry much more of workload, though if Giannis can go, that'll only increase their likelihood to win with ease anyway. The Bucks were one of the best teams in the league at home, while Miami was one of the worst road teams of the playoff teams, which will further ensure things swing back into Milwaukee's favor in this one. |
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04-18-23 | Knicks +6 v. Cavs | 90-107 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With how New York has performed this season in this matchup, there's no reason to think that they won't at least keep things competitive in this one. Their balance in the frontcourt and backcourt is crucial, especially when compared to Cleveland's struggles last game. New York's depth seems to be an advantage but having to win two games in a row overall might be too much to ask. Expect the Knicks to focus on the defensive end and slowing the game down, which might not serve them well in the result but will allow them to stay right within striking distance as the game comes to a close. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Knicks are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS win, while also sitting 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with Cleveland overall and 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in Cleveland. |
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04-18-23 | Hawks v. Celtics -10 | 106-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Until they got sloppy in the second half, the Celtics' offense was able to get whatever they wanted. Brown and Tatum's drives to the basket went unchallenged and the Celtics consistently found themselves with open looks from long range. Atlanta's inability to consistently shoot the three will ultimately do them in against a Celtics team that shoots the 3pt shot at the second-highest rate in the NBA. The Hawks, for their part, shoot the highest percentage of two-point shots in the NBA. Unfortunately for Atlanta, Boston's Al Horford, and Rob Williams III consistently met players at the rim and altered their shots on Saturday. The pair combined for three of Boston's seven shot blocks in the game. Look for Boston to establish both Brown and Tatum going to the basket, which will again open up their shooting from long range. |
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04-17-23 | Nets v. 76ers -10 | 84-96 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nets simply don't have the star power to keep up with this 76ers team, especially not on the road. They have some fantastic players, but nobody on that team is going to take over a game the way that Joel Embiid or James Harden can. Playing on the road against a 76ers team that's superb at home, the Nets don't stand a chance. We've seen them fall to Philly five times already between the regular season and game one, and this game should go the same way. The 76ers control the game and take a 2-0 lead in the series. |
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04-16-23 | Wolves v. Nuggets -7.5 | 80-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minnesota has at least sharpened their edge as they have played twice since the end of the regular season. That is a double-edged sword as it has helped keep the rust off but it has added extra wear and tear to key players in the rotation. Denver was on cruise control over the final month or so of the season as they held the advantage for both the Northwest Division and the top spot in the Western Conference. That gave the Nuggets the ability to rest some of their key players, like two-time reigning MVP Jokic, and prepare for the postseason run. Denver was a sparkling 34-7 at home this season while the Timberwolves were 20-21 as the road team on the year. Give the Nuggets the upper hand in this contest as the rest factor works in their favor. |
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04-16-23 | Heat v. Bucks -9 | 130-117 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It will be interesting to see how the Heat chooses to defend Antetonkoumnpo. They could defend him with Adebayo but that might force the team's best rebounder to the bench with foul trouble. Butler, arguably the Heat's best defender, doesn't have the length to cover the Greek Freak and I'm not sure Spoelstra will want to wear out his best offensive player by covering Antetonkoumnpo all night. With that in mind, I like the Bucks to dominate the first game. Milwaukee exposed the Heat's other defenders this season on the perimeter, nailing over 18 3pt field goals per matchup. Miami will adjust but that adjustment will likely come after a substantial game-one loss. This will be the first time all season that the Heat will face the Bucks at full strength and the combination of Antetonkoumnpo and Middleton will be too much for them. Don't discount the ability of Holiday to take his man in the paint for easy buckets as well. Beyond Adebayo and Butler, the Heat do not possess quality man-to-man defenders. |
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04-16-23 | Pirates +1.5 v. Cardinals | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pirates will start right-hander Mitch Keller (1-0, 3.57 ERA) in the series finale. Keller has delivered two quality stars in April, allowing just three runs on 10 hits in his last 13 innings. He is 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA in eight career starts against the Cardinals. Tommy Edman (5-for-16, double, three walks, three RBIs) and Lars Nootbaar (4-for-8, double, three walks) have had success against him. St. Louis will counter with struggling veteran Miles Mikolas (0-1, 10.05 ERA). In his last start, the right-hander allowed six runs on 10 hits, including three homers, in five innings of a 9-6 victory at Colorado. Mikolas is 5-5 with a 3.05 ERA in 19 career appearances against the Pirates, including 16 starts. Bryan Reynolds (9-for-28, four doubles, three RBIs) and Ke'Bryan Hayes (4-for-10, double) have hit well against him. St. Louis has only won three of its last 10 games against divisional opponents. |
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04-15-23 | Hawks v. Celtics -9.5 | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics provide several difficult matchups for a Hawks' team that struggles against athletic wings. Both Tatum and Brown will be able to get what they want both going to the rim and on the perimeter and that will force the Hawks to send help to both matchups. This will create tons of good looks from long range for a Celtics team that has thrived on the 3pt shot. The Celtics averaged over 22 3pt field goals per game against Atlanta this season, shooting over 46%, which indicates the Hawks' difficulty with keeping up with the Celtics' inside-out offense. Young will get his points in this series but Boston is one of the few teams in the NBA that can match up multiple players, Marcus Smart and White, to make him work for those points. Murray was not as effective against the Celtics this year thanks to Boston's length at the wing position. Williams III can neutralize Capella on the glass as well and the Hawks simply don't have the depth to match Boston. |
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04-13-23 | Pirates v. Cardinals -1.5 | 5-0 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Jordan Montgomery (2-0, 2.25 ERA) will start the series opener against the Pirates. He allowed three hits in seven innings in his latest start, a 6-0 victory at Milwaukee on Saturday. He struck out nine batters and walked two. The Pirates will turn to Vince Velasquez (0-2, 9.82 ERA) as they open a seven-game road trip. The right-hander lasted just 2 2/3 innings in his latest start, an 11-5 loss to the Chicago White Sox on Saturday. He allowed five runs on six hits and four walks with one strikeout. Velasquez is 1-3 with a 5.67 ERA in seven career appearances against the Cardinals, including six starts. |
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04-11-23 | Cardinals v. Rockies +1.5 | 9-6 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units St. Louis has sputtered mightily at the plate this season in key situations and that is a major reason why they are in the cellar of the NL Central. The Cardinals are hitting .275 with the bases empty and .315 with runners on base, but that number craters to .230 with runners in scoring position on the year. They are zero for eight with the bases loaded so far this season. Mikolas has struggled in his first two starts, allowing five runs in each outing as he’s been tagged for a league-high 19 hits. Colorado has been up and down this season but Freeland has been stellar in his two outings this season. The Rockies are a prolific offensive team at home and that works in their favor here, especially facing an eminently hittable pitcher like Mikolas. Give Colorado the advantage at home as they prevail behind another solid start from Freeland. |
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04-11-23 | Capitals v. Bruins -1.5 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bruins look to wrap up their historic season with a win and should overwhelm a struggling Capitals team on both ends of the ice. The Bruins, who average 3.64 goals per game, should find the back of the net at will with David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand, and the rest of the forward unit controlling the puck in the offensive zone and creating open shots with quick puck movement. The Bruins, who allow only 2.10 goals per game, should eliminate the Capitals' offense with Hampus Lindholm, Charlie McAvoy, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers in the neutral zone and defensive zone alike while goaltender Linus Ullmark blanks the shots on the net. The Bruins should win the game and cover the spread in a dominant win on their home ice. |
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04-09-23 | Clippers -12.5 v. Suns | 119-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This one is an absolute no brainer. As it stands right now, the Suns look like they are going to rest all of their star players - Durant, Paul, Booker and Ayton. So, expect a lot of big minutes from bench players. The Clippers should be playing everyone, because they will need this to lock down a top 6 seed in the West and avoid the play-in. The Lakers and Warriors are both playing at the same time. There is some question as to whether teams will avoid the fifth seed to avoid the Suns, but no one wants to be 7th either. I love the Clippers here. Take the Clippers to win and cover. |
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04-09-23 | A's v. Rays -1.5 | 0-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rays enter the game with a plus-46 run differential after winning their first eight games by four runs or more. That run differential through eight games is the largest in the modern era of MLB, eclipsing the plus-40 marks recorded by the 1955 Chicago White Sox and tied by the 1999 Cleveland club. The Rays also are on their longest winning streak since May 2021, when they won 11 games in a row. Tampa Bay has outscored its opponents 64-18 in their season-starting blitz -- although they've faced the Detroit Tigers, Washington Nationals and the A's, teams which combined for winning percentage of just .372 in 2022. Right-hander James Kaprielian (0-0, 9.00 ERA) -- a former first-round pick of the New York Yankees -- will take the ball as the A's hope he can slow Tampa Bay's juggernaut offense. In his most recent start, on April 3, Kaprielian was tagged for five runs on seven hits in five innings in a wild 12-11 loss against the Cleveland Guardians. Drew Rasmussen (1-0, 0.00), a right-hander, will start for the Rays on Sunday. He held the Nationals to two hits over six shutout innings with seven strikeouts and no walks in a 6-2 win on April 3. In his only career start against Oakland, Rasmussen earned the victory on May 2, 2022, giving up one run and throwing five innings of one-hit ball. |
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04-08-23 | Blazers v. Clippers -16.5 | 125-136 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Los Angeles has covered the spread in six straight home games against Portland, and I do not expect that trend to end on Saturday afternoon. The Trail Blazers enter this game with no motivation, as they are resting almost all of their key players and are already eliminated from playoff contention. Los Angeles is as motivated as any team in the NBA, as it needs a win to avoid the play-in tournament. The Clippers have won 11 of the last 12 meetings between these teams and should continue their dominance on Saturday. Portland has only picked up one win in its last eight games and is not playing competitive basketball without Lillard. |
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04-08-23 | Nuggets v. Jazz +6.5 | 114-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Throw out all the stats and trends for this game, because you are going to see two teams playing deep bench players. It will basically be like a summer league game. So, any trends I might be able to dig up would not be relevant as they don't pertain to the players who are going to be out on the court for this one. So, I'm going to defer here to the home team. The Jazz are in front of their home fans, the ones that show up for this meaningless game, that is, and that should be enough to push them to a win. Take the Jazz here to win and cover. |
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04-07-23 | Bulls v. Mavs -8.5 | 115-112 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I don't love backing the Mavs, but it's now or never for them. With Dallas still competing for a play-in spot and the Bulls' postseason hopes already decided, the Mavericks have a strong advantage. Expect to see the Bulls give a lot of minutes and opportunities to players outside of their big three. I expect Chicago to play hard, but they have dropped two straight games by double-digits, and with Dallas' season on the line, I expect them to pull away for a big win. |
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04-07-23 | Raptors +1 v. Celtics | 102-121 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Only one of the two teams in this matchup has anything to gain from a win. Toronto will trot out their regular lineup in this one while I expect the Celtics to rest more than at least one of their key players. Toronto has a lot to gain by potentially catching the Hawks in the standings. The Raptors are just 14-26 on the road this season but a far more respectable 26-14 at home. Look for Toronto to control the pace and take advantage of a depleted Celtics roster. |
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04-06-23 | Thunder -6.5 v. Jazz | 114-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams have struggled of late and that is why we enter the final days of the season with one team fighting to hang on for the final playoff spot in the West and the other fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive. Injury issues and the trades that Utah made at the deadline may have bolstered their chances for the future but made things tougher for making the postseason. Oklahoma City is at as close to full strength as they have been in the last couple of months here and they have to be motivated. The Thunder took the last two meetings between the teams last month, both at home: they make it three straight and eliminate the Jazz from playoff contention, with a win here. |
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04-06-23 | Red Sox v. Tigers +1.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -135 | 3 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Detroit's Spencer Turnbull will be making his first home start since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2021. The 30-year-old right-hander, who tossed a no-hitter against Seattle on May 18, 2021, will pitch at Detroit's Comerica Park for the first time since May 29 that same year. He recorded his last win that day when he held the New York Yankees to one run in 5 2/3 innings. He's 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in two career starts against the Red Sox. Boston left-hander Chris Sale gave up seven runs on seven hits, including three homers, to Baltimore in three innings Saturday. Sale was bailed out by the Red Sox offense, which rallied for a 9-8 victory. Boston committed two errors in the series finale and has allowed 14 stolen bases without a caught stealing this season. |
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04-04-23 | Nuggets -9 v. Rockets | 103-124 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nuggets have won five of their last seven games and two of their last three road games. They are playing well offensively, scoring more than 112 points per game on the road. They do a good job finding the open man and they were very aggressive on the offensive glass in their last three games, which will give them more scoring chances. They also cut back on their turnovers in their last three games and won’t give the Rockets a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Rockets aren’t very good defensively and gave up more than 120 points per game in their last three games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Nuggets in this game. The Rockets have lost eight of their last nine games and three of their last four home games. They are playing well offensively, scoring more than 114 points per game in their last three games. Their ball movement isn’t very good, but they’ve been attacking the offensive glass relentlessly in recent games, so expect them to get extra-scoring chances. They have been very careless with the ball, even at home, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Nuggets, who averaged more than eight steals per game in their last three games. The Nuggets are playing very well defensively, holding their last three opponents under 107 points per game, and won’t have trouble keeping Houston’s offense in check. Go with Denver to cover the spread. |
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04-04-23 | Celtics +2 v. 76ers | 101-103 | Push | 0 | 29 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Boston Celtics take on Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers in Eastern Conference play today. The 76ers are 8-6 against the rest of their division. Philadelphia averages 115.1 points while outscoring opponents by 4.5 points per game. The Celtics are 9-4 in division play. Boston is second in the Eastern Conference with 35.6 defensive rebounds per game led by Jayson Tatum averaging 7.8. The teams meet for the fourth time this season. The Celtics won 110-107 in the last matchup on Feb. 26. Jaylen Brown led the Celtics with 26 points, and Embiid led the 76ers with 41 points. |