Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-20-22 | Georgetown v. Connecticut -21 | 73-84 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units UConn has covered a 33-point spread and a 39.5-point spread already this season. They have also beaten an excellent Alabama team by 15 points and showed no mercy beating Butler by 22 in the conference opener. With so many transfers leading the way, the Georgetown defense has struggled as they lost to Northwestern, Loyal Marymount, Texas Tech, Syracuse, and Xavier by double-digits. I am not a fan of laying this many points, but UConn has been excellent, and I don't want to go against the nation's top team against the spread at home. It's either UConn or pass. |
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12-19-22 | Rams v. Packers -7 | 12-24 | Win | 100 | 56 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Rested home teams on Monday Night games are 25-12 ATS when coming off a SUATS win, including 19-7 ATS as a favorite of 4 or more points. Toss in the fact that the Pack is 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS in this series since 2007 and you can see where we’re headed. Our QB League check is reminding us that Aaron Rodgers is 23-12-3 ATS in his career against NFC West opponents while Mayfield is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in his last five games when coming off a win. We seal the deal with the fact that future Hall of Fame QB Aaron Rodgers is 10-4-1 ATS when coming off a Bye week in his career, including 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS at home. |
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12-19-22 | Mavs v. Wolves +3.5 | 106-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Dallas has been a terrible team to back away from home this season, as it has gone 3-13 in its last 16 road games. The Mavericks could be playing without the NBA’s second-leading scorer again on Monday, so I have no interest in backing them against a Minnesota team that is coming off its best outing of the season. This is a rare situation where the back-to-back aspect is not a negative thing, as the Timberwolves will be ready to pick up where it left off. They could also be getting some reinforcements back after having four key players out on Sunday. Minnesota has won four of its last six home games and will be oozing with confidence in this spot. |
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12-19-22 | Blazers v. Thunder +7.5 | 121-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oklahoma City is coming off a 115-109 win over Memphis on Saturday in a game in which it was without its two top scorers -- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey. Gilgeous-Alexander missed the game with a lower back contusion. Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said he didn't expect Gilgeous-Alexander to miss much time. Giddey was out with a non-COVID illness. Darius Bazley has missed back-to-back games for the same reason. Oklahoma City has also been without Ousmane Dieng, who has missed the last six games with a right wrist fracture, and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, who has missed the last three with a right ankle sprain. Today's game is the first of four between the teams this season. The Thunder swept last season's four-games series. All four meetings occurred after Lillard was lost with a season-ending abdominal injury. Consider that the Thunder are 42-19-3 ATS in their last 64 games following a ATS win. |
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12-19-22 | College of Charleston v. Coastal Carolina +8.5 | 83-69 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While it may very well be that Charleston comes away with a victory, expecting them to win by more than 4 or 5 in this game could be a stretch. They are on an impressive 10-game winning streak but have earned five-point victories in two of their last three games. In both of those games, they failed to cover the spread. Coastal Carolina has the offensive firepower to stay in this game, and they hit from the free-throw line. Should this be a close game or a contest where both teams are trying to be more aggressive to create turnovers, the Chanticleers can hold their own to stay in this game by hitting free-throw attempts. That should keep this game close, if not help Coastal Carolina earn the victory. |
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12-19-22 | Connecticut +13 v. Marshall | 14-28 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Armed with one of the top defenses in the country, Marshall will take on a surprisingly improved UConn team in the Myrtle Beach Bowl on Monday in Conway, S.C. UConn (6-6) is bowl-eligible for the first time since 2015 under first-year coach Jim Mora Jr. Before losing their regular season finale to Army, the Huskies had a stretch of five wins in six games, capped off by an upset victory over then-ranked No. 19 Liberty. And who did the Huskies play in that 2015 bowl game? Marshall. The Thundering Herd (8-4) have been a regular attendee during bowl season recently. This will be the 11th time in the past 14 seasons that Marshall has gone bowling -- a streak that began in 2009 and stretches across three head-coaching tenures. The Herd have lost their last three bowl games, though, and are looking for their first postseason win since 2018. To clinch this pick consider that Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game while Thundering Herd are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in December. |
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12-18-22 | Nets v. Pistons +8.5 | 124-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Detroit is coming off a 122-113 home loss to the Sacramento Kings. The Pistons led 63-55 at halftime but the Kings took control with a 17-2 run at the beginning of the second half. The Kings outscored Detroit 38-23 during the third quarter. The Pistons crept within three points in the fourth quarter but couldn't complete the comeback. Detroit collected a 141-134 overtime road victory against Charlotte in its previous outing. Consider that the Nets are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a ATS win. |
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12-18-22 | Auburn v. USC +1.5 | 71-74 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Trojans are playing some of their best basketball over the last few seasons and even though they'll be welcoming a dangerous team to town, they'll come away with the win in this one. For Auburn, potentially being without their top guard and top scorer is bound to take its toll on this team, especially as they hit the road in this one. The Tigers' lack of convincing results on the road this season is going to make this one a wake-up call and what USC bringing back quite a bit of experience, they'll be able to coast to the upset at home. Additionally, according to covers.com, Auburn is 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games and are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight-up win. |
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12-18-22 | Bengals v. Bucs +4 | Top | 34-23 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 30 m | Show |
NFL Upset of the Month Rating: 5 Units Bengals are 5-0 SUATS the last fi ve games, and that may sound good to Joe Public, but not to the savvy handicapper as non-rested NFL teams on a 5-0 SUATS win streak have puked as non-division favorites of 5 or fewer points, going just 10-20-1 ATS in this role. On the other side of this hardto-like take are the Bucs, who were totally throttled in last week’s 28-point loss at San Francisco. It doesn’t get much worse than that. In fact, it was the third-worst loss in Brady’s NFL career. And adding more misery, it occurred at the hands of 7th round rookie QB Brock Purdy. By now we all know of Brady’s jaw-dropping 11-1 ATS career mark as a home dog. But don't forget that Tom Brady is 16-3 SU and 18-1 ATS as a pick or dog off a loss in his NFL career, including 10-0 SUATS off a loss of more than 7 points. |
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12-18-22 | Cardinals +2 v. Broncos | 15-24 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Broncos have been installed as favorites for the sixth time this season, bringing with it a tawdry 0-5 ATS mark as chalk under head coach Nathaniel Hackett. Yes, it’s Colt McCoy time once again for Arizona, and for our money he’s more than welcome. That’s because he is 3-1 SUATS as a starter with the Cardinals. Coupled with Kingsbury’s 14-9 SU and 16-6-1 ATS road dog log with Zona, including 9-0 ATS versus losing foes. |
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12-18-22 | Patriots +2.5 v. Raiders | 24-30 | Loss | -107 | 2 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Las Vegas is 1-7 ATS mark when coming off a SU favorite loss, as well as 1-8-1 ATS versus AFC East opponents, and just 1-5 ATS when tackling foes coming off a Monday Night contest. Meanwhile, The Hoodie brings a razor-sharp 9-1 SU and 7-2 ATS career mark in games against any team wearing a Raiders helmet, while winning all four times in games in which the Pats sport the better record. |
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12-18-22 | Green Bay v. Oregon State -16 | 56-65 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Beavers aren't bad, but they'll look like a very good team versus Green Bay. They're a solid offensive club who didn't quit on themselves after a poor first-half shooting versus Seattle, pouring in 48 second-half points. They'll carry momentum from that shooting performance into this matchup, putting the Phoenix away early enough to coast to a comfortable victory. The Beavers' defense (189th in defensive efficiency) should also have no problems containing Green Bay (354th in offensive efficiency). The Phoenix has not shown up in these non-conference matchups, as Georgetown and Stanford blew them out. Against in-state Wisconsin, they couldn't take advantage of an ice-cold Badgers squad (30.2 FG%), as the Phoenix scored just 15 first-half points and 45 total points. |
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12-18-22 | Cowboys v. Jaguars +4 | Top | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units Jaguars’ QB Trevor Lawrence, has over the course of his last three games sport a 111.7 QB Rating with 0 INTs. Meanwhile, the not-so-big news in the Dallas receiver room is that WR TY Hilton will be joining the Cowboys, not Odell Beckham, Jr. The feeling here is OBJ may still be in play for America’s Team, but not until he’s able to take the field. Yes, the Boys are confident, riding an 8-game ITS (In The Stats) win skein entering today’s game. But we can’t ignore that playing against any sub .800 NFL non-division road favorite coming off three straight home games from Game 11 out is 12-1-1 since 1980. |
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12-18-22 | Lions +2 v. Jets | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is not a matchup that NFL fans would have circled on their calendars heading into the season, but it is going to be an electric atmosphere on Sunday. I would rather fade the Jets than the Lions right now, especially with some of the injury issues that New York is dealing with, most notably to White, who is out for this game. Detroit’s offense has been among the best in the NFL all year, and the Lions have gotten even better of late. They have covered the spread in six straight games and are the pick to cover the number on Sunday. |
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12-17-22 | Dolphins v. Bills -7 | 29-32 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Buffalo pulled a win-no cover against the Jets last week, (Miami 0-6 ATS off SUATS loss versus a win-no-cover foe) and now own a one-game lead over the Fish. If you got to see that game, you know the weather in Buffalo was miserable – and it’s going to get worse tonight. All of which spells trouble for the Floridians. Hey, it’s bad enough that they have to play a third straight road game, where they are 1-6 SUATS in this role of late, but it’s borderline criminal to send them up into the arctic-cold of a city that may as well be in Canada. Buffalo QB Josh Allen will take time out from his busy commercial shoots to take care of a little business, namely revenge from a loss to Miami back in September. With the Bills now 5-1 ATS playing at home off a home game, look for the Dolphins to go down again. |
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12-17-22 | Blazers v. Rockets +4 | 107-95 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Surprising and sudden defensive prowess had fueled the Houston Rockets through a five-game homecourt winning streak, highlighted by consecutive victories over the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns earlier in the week. Against the Miami Heat on Thursday, the Rockets proved unable to maintain that defensive momentum, falling 111-108 in the third game of a seven-game homestand that continues on Saturday against the Portland Trail Blazers. Central to the Rockets' struggles against the Heat was on-ball defense, namely against Tyler Herro and Jimmy Butler. Herro poured in a career-high 41 points while sinking 10 3-pointers, also a career best. He torched several defenders in his wake. Butler finished with 20 points and 10 rebounds, and he added seven assists by routinely finding teammates in the corners after beating his defender off the dribble. Houston will face a similar challenge against Portland and its guard tandem of Damian Lillard -- who will enter the game 46 points shy of surpassing Hall of Fame guard Clyde Drexler atop the franchise career scoring list -- and Anfernee Simons. However, what should embolden Houston is the manner in which it competed against Miami down the stretch despite the sharpshooting of Herro and the all-around brilliance displayed by Butler, who also chipped in four steals. Finally, the Trail Blazers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. |
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12-17-22 | Grizzlies v. Thunder +9 | 109-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Grizzlies are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. While the Thunder are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss. |
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12-17-22 | BYU +4.5 v. SMU | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 28 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units History is not riding with the Ponies as they are 0-5 ATS as a front-runner plus 0-3 SU all-time in this series. SMU is also 0-4 ATS versus foes off an ATS win, and 0-6 UNDER on a neutral fi eld. It’s Mustangs’ boss Rhett Lashlee’s first bowl game as a head coach, and first timers are 16-32 ATS vs. teams coming off a win. BYU is 5-0 ATS as a dog off three wins and 5-1 ATS versus a .500 or better AAC team not coming off consecutive wins, plus Cougars head coach Kalani Sitake is a stern 16-7 ATS when a dog of 12 points or less. He will be without star RB Lopini Kotoa but is holding out hope his number one QB Jaren Hall can play on a bum ankle. Finally, BYU is 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS vs. foes with an identical record, including 5-0 when the Cougars are coming off a SUATS win. |
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12-17-22 | Heat v. Spurs +7.5 | 111-101 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Spurs have played six games in Mexico, most recently a 121-119 overtime win over Phoenix as part of the NBA Mexico City Games 2019. It will mark Miami's second game ever in Mexico, with the other a 101-89 loss against the Brooklyn Nets in December 2017. San Antonio got in a vigorous workout on Friday to acclimate to the higher elevation of Mexico's capital city. San Antonio defeated the Heat 115-111 in Miami on Dec. 10 in the first matchup of the year between the teams. Consider that the Heat are 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 games following a straight up win. |
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12-17-22 | Florida +9 v. Oregon State | 3-30 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units If UF finds the red zone, they’ll find the nation’s best red zone defense but that’s about the best number for Beavers fans because the gambling numbers favor the orange and blue. OSU West is 0-4 SU vs SEC foes, 1-4 SUATS in bowls against a team not coming off a double-digit loss. The Pac-12 is 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS vs. the SEC… and it gets a little worse for Oregon State. UF is 5-1 ATS versus Pac-12 teams, all as the underdog, and 7-2 ATS as a bowler not favored by 7 or more points. First year head coaches are 10-4 ATS as a double-digit dog and UF coach Billy Napier is 17-6 ATS as a puppy backed up by a powerful 8-0 ATS run in the last eight. The Pac-12 also limps in with a 15-34-1 ATS record as a bowl favorite. This is a classic conflict of favorable numbers for UF, but the other team is favored and facing a QB that’s never played a meaningful down since his senior year at Chaparral High in Scottsdale, AZ. And our head coach is 17-5 ATS as a dog. |
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12-17-22 | Colts +4 v. Vikings | 36-39 | Win | 100 | 22 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Colts have dropped three straight, while failing to reach the 20-point mark in scoring. Still, the blowout loss at Dallas was a 4th-quarter fluke (Cowboys outscored Indy, 33-0) and defeats against Pittsburgh and Philadelphia came down to the final minutes. The Colts are on an 11-0 ATS run when playing off a double-digit loss, plus they’ve cashed SEVEN straight tickets versus NFC North opponents. The Colts also counter with the league’s 7th ranked stop unit, 89 YPG superior to that of Minnesota. |
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12-17-22 | Alabama v. Gonzaga | 90-100 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The betting trends, though, do not look favorably on Gonzaga's chances. The Bulldogs are 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss and 1-12-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight-up win. They're even performing poorly ATS in neutral site games (1-9-1 ATS in their last 11). I'll bet the more balanced squad playing closer to home to cover the spread. |
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12-16-22 | Nuggets v. Lakers +2 | 108-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Denver beat LA 110-99 as a 5-point home fave in their first meeting of the season on October 26, and the Lakers responded with a 121-110 home victory four days later, playing as 2.5-point home dogs. It was the Lakers’ first win in 2022-23. They held Denver to 42.7% shooting from the field while making 13 of their 30 attempts from beyond the arc. The Lakers nearly defeated the Celtics last Tuesday, and I’m expecting them to grab this one over the Nuggets, whose defense will struggle to cope with both LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Of course, the Lakers will have to bring their best defense and slow down Nikola Jokic as much as possible. Los Angeles is defending the 3-point line well, but Davis has to contain Jokic in the paint. The Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Western Conference, while the Nuggets have covered the spread just once in their previous six games overall. |
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12-16-22 | Weber State v. Cal Poly -5 | 74-45 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Besides Dillon Jones, the Wildcats lack a decent scoring option. Cal Poly is arguably a better defensive team than Weber State, and the Mustangs own three guys who average points in double digits, so I’m backing the hosts to come out on top and cover a 5.5-point spread. The only thing I’m worried about is the fact that Cal Poly’s defense ranks 309th in the nation in free throw rate, while Weber State’s offense ranks 48th in free throw rate. Anyway, the Wildcats have been one of the worst defensive units in the nation thus far (358th in effective field goal percentage, 58.8%). Weber State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games overall and 1-7 ATS in its previous eight showings on the road. On the other side, Cal Poly has covered in five straight contests and seven of its last eight outings on the home court. |
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12-16-22 | Magic +13 v. Celtics | 117-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Orlando has had a season full of streaks, as its current run of four wins in a row follows a nine-game skid that spanned more than two weeks. The Magic will begin a four-game trip after Wednesday's 135-124 win over Atlanta, which extended the team's longest win streak since early in the 2020-21 season. "These guys are just continuing to learn to trust each other," Orlando coach Jamahl Mosley said. "The rhythm that they're finding, the continuity, being willing to make the open pass." Against the Hawks, Franz Wagner scored 24 points to lead an offense that had a 50-point first quarter, the highest-scoring period in Magic history. Bol Bol had 21 points, Paolo Banchero added 20 points and six rebounds, and Markelle Fultz finished with 16 points, seven rebounds and nine assists. Consider that the Magic are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. |
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12-16-22 | Nets v. Raptors +1.5 | 119-116 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Raptors have dropped three in a row for the first time this season after losing 124-123 to the visiting Sacramento Kings on Wednesday. Brooklyn has won all three games with Toronto this season. The Raptors continued to have problems in shooting 3-pointers on Wednesday, going 6 for 21 (28.6 percent). However, Toronto is 10-4 at home. Brooklyn is 7-7 on the road. |
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12-16-22 | Troy +2.5 v. UTSA | 18-12 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Trojans held three teams to season low yardage this year. Troy’s defensive 11 held the seven bowl teams they faced to 17 PPG/326 YPG. They’re 5-0 ATS when receiving points and after all isn’t receiving what the holiday season is all about? UTSA struggles defensively against bowlers, 29 PPG/409 YPG and has yet to win a bowl game, going 0-3 and that includes not covering once. Troy’s first year head coach Jon Sumrall knows his Trojans have won their last four bowl games. |
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12-16-22 | Miami-OH v. UAB -10.5 | 20-24 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Trent Dilfer is perhaps the most maligned winning QB in Super Bowl history fairly or unfairly, but after a strong stint coaching HS ball in Tennessee, he’s the coach in waiting for UAB. Bryant Vincent has this bowl assignment, and his Blazers have gone 3-0 ATS in bowls since 2018. Yes, the RedHawks are 4-0 ATS in bowls since 2011, but this year against bowl teams M-OH has had its problems going 0-5 SU, 1-4 SUATS and ITS (In The Stats). Chuck Martin’s Miamians are also a scary 3-8 In the Stats this season and against fellow bowlers are an average -131. Yecch. Toss in the MAC’s inability to conquer C-USA in the bowls, going 5-18 SU and 7-15-1 ATS, and it’s hard to get excited about Miami winning. Meanwhile, the Blazers are a hearty 15-7-1 ATS as double-digit chalk, including 3-0 ATS in non-conference contests. UAB has also held four foes to season-low yardage, and Martin seems to be conservative in bowl games for some odd reason. Blazers’ players who plan on coming back next season will be very invested in putting on a good show for the incoming Dilfer, and motivation is perhaps the biggest non-numerical reason to pick with or against a team during bowl season. |
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12-15-22 | Pelicans v. Jazz +1.5 | 129-132 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For years, a stifling defense was one of the Utah Jazz's calling cards, which made sense considering they had a three-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year patrolling the paint. If you ask Jazz coach Will Hardy, Utah's recent performance against Zion Williamson and the red-hot New Orleans Pelicans could be considered its best defensive performance since the franchise traded defensive powerhouse Rudy Gobert to Minnesota this past offseason. Whether the Jazz defense can stymie the Pelicans again will be an intriguing aspect of the teams' turnaround rematch today in Salt Lake City. In their 121-100 blowout win over the Pelicans on Tuesday, the Jazz held New Orleans -- previously the league's third-ranked scoring offense -- to its second-lowest scoring total of the season. The visitors, who saw their seven-game winning streak get snapped, only shot 39.8 percent overall and made only 4 of 27 3-point tries. Consider that the Jazz are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. |
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12-15-22 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3.5 | 21-13 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Seattle is 4-0 ATS at home off a home game, as well 8-2-2 ATS in Thursday pressure cookers. Frisco has failed to cover in three straight Thursday appearances, and the Niners are a lousy 2-7 ATS as favorites versus a foe off a SU favorite loss. Look, we don’t expect Brock Purdy to match last week’s eye-popping performance against a desperate Seattle ‘D’, and 49ers all-world star Deebo Samuel is out with a sprained ankle and MCL, though he is expected back before the playoffs. No Deebo and a 2-game cushion for San Francisco in the division race means the hungry, hungry Seahawks find a way to win tonight. |
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12-15-22 | Heat v. Rockets +4 | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Houston Rockets will need many more defensive performances similar to their two most recent efforts in order to climb from the bottom five in the NBA in defensive rating, but the results produced against the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns are nonetheless noteworthy. Houston extended its homecourt winning streak to five games with its 111-97 victory over the Suns on Tuesday, marking the second time this season the Rockets have held consecutive opponents below 100 points following their 97-92 home triumph over the Bucks on Sunday. The Rockets will look to extend their homecourt winning streak, and their stretch of tenacious defensive efforts. Consider that Heat are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up win. |
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12-15-22 | Chattanooga v. Middle Tennessee -5.5 | 82-73 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Mocs are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. While the Blue Raiders are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record, 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 Thursday games, and 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS win. Additionally, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. |
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12-14-22 | Charleston Southern v. Tennessee State -5.5 | 91-87 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Consider that the Buccaneers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Wednesday Games, 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 games following an ATS loss, and 0-3-1 in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss. While the Tigers are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400, 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. |
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12-14-22 | Knicks +4.5 v. Bulls | 128-120 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Knicks come into this matchup playing their best basketball of the season. The Bulls have had trouble at two spots this season, the power forward and point guard. Those happen to be the Knicks two strongest spots with Randle and Brunson the team's two top scorers. The Knicks should dominate the glass in this matchup with the 3rd ranked rebounding team matched up against the Bulls 24th ranked rebounding unit. The Knicks are also 7-6 on the road and 8-5 ATS away from Madison Square Garden. The Knicks are also 6-3-1 ATS in their last ten games. Look for NY to make it five straight wins in this matchup. |
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12-14-22 | Warriors v. Pacers +1.5 | 119-125 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This will be the second game of a back-to-back for the Warriors and they have not been the same team on the road this season. They have only picked up two wins on the road, as I see this game staying very close until the very end. The Pacers are solid on the offensive end of the floor, as I see these two teams attacking one another until the very end. Neither team is special on the defensive end of the court, but they have shown that they can efficiently score. The Pacers are scoring the 12th most points per game and they have the 12th-highest three-point shooting percentage. The Warriors are surrendering the 23rd most points per game and they have been horrible on the road. They won't be able to slow down the Pacers and Indiana will be able to keep this game close until the end. The Warriors were forced to battle the Bucks on Tuesday night, as they will be exhausted for this game. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Pacers have the 16th-highest adjusted offensive rating, as they will continue to attack in this game. The Warriors have not been impressive on the defensive end of the court to begin this season. |
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12-14-22 | DePaul +3.5 v. Duquesne | 55-66 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units DePaul ranked 60th compared to the Dukes' 75th ranking, while they are far more efficient on defense - 122nd to 249th. In addition, DePaul has played a much more challenging schedule thus far, with the 111th-ranked schedule. Duquesne ranks just 287th in terms of strength of schedule thus far. I expect the Blue Demons to exploit the Dukes' shaky perimeter defense and put up high 3pt numbers. Roll with the Blue Demons for a critical road win. |
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12-13-22 | Capitals v. Blackhawks +1.5 | 7-3 | Loss | -140 | 7 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Blackhawks are cognizant of the effort they're receiving from goaltender Arvid Soderblom, who made 29 saves against Winnipeg and consistently has kept the team competitive during its month-long malaise. "He's working his (butt) off in there and backdoor saves left and right," defenseman Seth Jones said. "We're obviously giving up too many chances. Your goalie's got to make timely saves for you, but you've got to do a little bit better job. "He's part of this team, and he's a guy that's never going to complain or show his emotion." Since winning their first two games against Eastern Conference foes this season, the Blackhawks have lost eight of nine. However, head to head, the home team is 13-4 in the last 17 meetings. |
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12-13-22 | Memphis +8 v. Alabama | 88-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Tigers (8-2) roll into the matchup with the Tide riding a six-game winning streak following an impressive 82-73 win over No. 11 Auburn in Atlanta on Saturday. Kendric Davis, the reigning American Athletic Conference Player of the Year, had a season-high 27 points and nine rebounds in the victory over Auburn. DeAndre Williams (16 points, team-high 11 rebounds), Alex Lomax (13 points, four boards) and Keonte Kennedy (nine points, three rebounds) also played key roles in the upset, as did Memphis' scrappy defense. The Tigers limited Auburn to 38.1 percent shooting from the field (24 of 63) and 25 percent from behind the arc (6 of 24). Finally consider that Crimson Tide is 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games. |
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12-12-22 | Hawks v. Grizzlies -9.5 | 103-128 | Win | 100 | 2 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units NBA home favorites that have gone under the total by 30 or more combined points in their last three games are 129-72 ATS (+49.8 units) in the first half of the season, covering the spread by an average of +8.8 points per game. Since 2016, NBA home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a +3 to +7 points per game differential are 64-26 ATS following two or more consecutive unders versus teams with a +3 to -3 points per game differential. This situation has covered the spread by an average of +11.3 points per game and is 32-11 ATS over the last three seasons (2-0 ATS this year). Since January 17, 2022, the Grizzlies are 17-3 ATS off a game in which they made fewer than ten 3-pointers versus opponents with less than three days of rest. |
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12-12-22 | Heat v. Pacers +3.5 | 87-82 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Heat have allowed an average of 117 points in their last three road games which is above their season average of 110 points. The Pacers have a better offensive efficiency rating than the Heat, posting 109.4 points per 100 possessions while the Heat has dipped to 107.9 points per 100. Indiana continues to shine offensively, averaging 120 points in its last four games. They already beat the Heat by a 101-99 score in the lone meeting. Indiana is hot from deep, sinking at least 40% of their threes in three straight clashes including a 48% performance on Saturday. |
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12-11-22 | Tennessee -5 v. Maryland | 56-53 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Tennessee comes in as the hotter of the two teams with seven straight wins and the more impressive resume that includes wins over Gonzaga and Kansas. They have the #1 ranked defense in college basketball and are holding the opposition to 33% shooting. They are 3-1 in neutral games thus far and also possess the 35th most efficient offense in college basketball. Maryland has played well to date and does have quality wins over Miami and Illinois thus far. With the game played at a neutral site, expect defense to travel better than offense. With that in mind, the relentless Volunteers' defense will carry the day and add an 8th straight win to the Volunteers resume. |
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12-11-22 | Panthers v. Seahawks -3.5 | Top | 30-24 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 10 m | Show |
Mismatch of the Week Rating: 5 Units So why is it, that the Seahawks a measly 3.5-point favorite at home against the 4-8 Panthers? Is Vegas telling us something? They may be trying, but we’re not buying. Not with Carolina 0-3 SUATS in NFC West division duke outs this season, and 0-3 SUATS the last three games in this series. And not with the Panthers a pussycat-like 0-4 ATS in games when coming off a Bye week. Turn it around and you’ll find a Seahawks squad 7-3 ATS against foes coming off a Bye week. Better yet, the Seahawks are 25-3 SU and 21-6-1 ATS in games when coming off consecutive ATS losses under head coach Pete Carroll, including 15-0 SU and 14-1 ATS at home. |
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12-11-22 | Bucs +3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 7-35 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 3 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units Brady is simply the best as an underdog, going 41-17-1 ATS in his illustrious career, including 19-4-1 ATS when his team is seeking revenge and 17-5 ATS when his team is coming off an ATS loss. He also stands 21-6 SU in his career in games in which his team is .500 on the season. Perhaps even more impressive is Brady’s 45-14 SU and 43-12-4 ATS mark in games against foes with a better record, including 24-6 ATS when taking points. With Monday night’s stirring comeback win over the Saints, the Bucs currently hold down the No. 4 seed in the NFC playoff picture while the Niners lay claim to the No. 2 seed. Frisco is just 1-7 ATS as non-division home chalk of fewer than four points and Tampa Bay is 7-1-2 ATS as a dog after being a favorite the previous game. Finally consider that playing against any .666 or greater single-digit NFL regular season home team coming off consecutive home wins if they are facing an opponent coming off a loss is 14-2-1 since 1983. |
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12-11-22 | Eagles v. Giants +7 | 48-22 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units There have been 26 games that played to an overtime tie in the NFL since 1980. The good news for Big Blue is that home teams not favored by 3 or more points are 9-2 SUATS when coming off a kiss-you-sister-contest, including 6-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a win. The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in the first of consecutive road games, 1-5 ATS in their last six division road games, and 2-8 ATS as road chalk of three or more points, and the G-Men 6-2 ATS when seeking revenge in this series, the points are the play in this fray. |
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12-11-22 | Browns +6 v. Bengals | 10-23 | Loss | -120 | 3 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Watson dresses up today sporting a 10-2-1 ATS NFL career mark as a dog of six or fewer points versus sub .700 opposition, as well as 9-3-1 ATS as a road dog against sub .700 foes. Meanwhile, the Bengals enter off last week’s hard-fought battle with the Chiefs at just 1-6 ATS as division home chalk of fewer than seven points, as well as 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS in Game Thirteen of the season when taking on division foes. |
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12-10-22 | Celtics v. Warriors +3 | 107-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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12-10-22 | Thunder v. Cavs -5.5 | 102-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland is playing the second game of a back-to-back situation here but on the plus side, at least there was no travel involved for them as both games are at home. The Cavaliers have gotten healthier over the last week or so with Love and Allen both returning to action to bolster their frontcourt. Oklahoma City has played decent basketball but they lack much of a frontcourt presence to contend with Cleveland’s low block presence. The Thunder are second-worst in the league in scoring defense this season and that is going to be problematic, especially since the Cavaliers are #1 in that category. While fatigue could be a small factor, Cleveland’s depth and talent is enough to get them the victory here. |
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12-10-22 | Arizona v. Indiana | 89-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We have a pair of elite teams on the floor in this contest with no home court advantage to speak of as this one takes place on a neutral floor. These teams are two of the top three shooting teams in the country, so it is going to be a highly entertaining contest. Arizona is a very team-oriented offense and they are good on the glass. The Wildcats do have issues on the defensive end of the floor as the Hoosiers have the advantage in that department. With that said, Arizona has four guys that average in double figures this season, two others that put up more than nine points a night and a dynamic point guard in Kriisa, who seems to be a step ahead of opposing defenses. The Wildcats scratch out a win in a terrific basketball game. |
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12-10-22 | Clippers v. Wizards +5.5 | 114-107 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Despite the emotional return of Wall, the Clipper come into this game very banged up and with a compromised bench. Jackson and Powell represent two of the Clippers better shooters from long range and will be missed against a Wizard team that has been scoring at a high rate despite their losing streak. In addition, Washington is 3-1 this season in the second games of back-to-backs. The Clippers have staked their claim this season on scoring defense and rebounding but the Wizards are nearly as effective on the glass and are shooting the ball at a high rate. Look for the Wizards to snap their losing streak against an inconsistent Clippers team. |
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12-10-22 | Navy v. Army +3 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Ken “Nine Lives” Niumatalolo and the Midshipmen, who are staring down the barrel of their third straight losing campaign. Even so, a win against Army can cure a lot of ills, and Navy backers appear to be on board, moving the line from Army -1.5 to pick in just a few hours – not that strange considering the Mids have gone 16-4 SU in the last 20 meetings while being made the favorite 17 times. However, note that the team with the better win percentage in this series (Army this season), is 11-1 SU and 8-4 ATS since 1980 in games in which Air Force has already claimed the CIC trophy. Then there’s the matter of the Black Knights’ 17-13 loss to Navy in 2021 as 7-point chalk. Revenge is the ultimate weapon in military battles, especially for those seeking it against foes sporting a losing record, as they’ve gone 15-5 SU and 13-7 ATS in this role in these military matters since 1995, including 5-0 ATS for those teams who score 34 or more points in their previous game. The series has also seen Army go 7-1 ATS with revenge when coming off a win, including 4-0 ATS the last four years. |
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12-09-22 | Washington +16.5 v. Gonzaga | 60-77 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Zags will keep their home streak intact with a win in this game but this is too big a spread for the Zags based on their recent play. They are turning the ball over too much and haven't necessarily been suffocating on the defensive end. Washington should be able to hang close enough in this game thanks to the Zags turnover issues and Washington's efficiency on the defensive end, ranked 55th in the country. Gonzaga has not yet hit their stride and are still trying to find themselves. They have only beaten two opponents by more than 16 points this season. The Huskies will hang in this game enough to cover the point spread. |
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12-09-22 | Suns v. Pelicans +1.5 | 117-128 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units They say styles make matchups and, in this case, the style of the Pelicans should give Phoenix problems. With Ingram out, Williamson has gotten the bulk of the touches for the Pelicans and his playing his best basketball in two seasons. In truth, he is a nightmare matchup for most teams but particularly a nightmare for Phoenix as they continue to play without Cameron Johnson. Williamson should dominate the paint against the rather light Suns. In other news, while it will obviously benefit the Suns going forward having Paul back, he has a lot of rust to shake off his 37-year old body and looked to be at least a step slow on Wednesday night. If Alvarado is cleared to play, the pesky point guard will surely cause fits for Paul as he tries to get up to speed. This feels like a chance for the Pelicans to make an early statement at home against the recent class of the Western Conference. |
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12-09-22 | Raptors v. Magic +9 | 109-113 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Raptors are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Friday games. The Magic will ride the momentum of Wednesday's victory, scoring 60-plus points in the paint against Toronto's sub-par interior defense. I'll bet the Magic cover the seven-point spread at Amway Center. |
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12-09-22 | Flames v. Blue Jackets +1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Flames are 4-11 in their last 15 after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game, 2-6 in their last 8 vs. Metropolitan, and 2-7 in their last 9 road games. While the Blue Jackets are 7-3 in their last 10 games following a home loss of 3 or more goals. |
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12-08-22 | Raiders -6.5 v. Rams | 16-17 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s now three consecutive wins for the Raiders, with RB Josh Jacobs off another monster game (26 carries, 144 yards, TD), and WR Davante Adams playing up to expectations (eight catches 177 yards, two TDs). The bottom line to this contest is there could be a Baker Mayfield sighting for the Rams tonight (signed but learning a new system), and Los Angeles falls to 2-13 ATS in games when coming off a loss as a dog against a foe coming off a win as a favorite. Back the better team as it keeps their playoff hopes alive. |
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12-08-22 | Clippers v. Heat -6 | 110-115 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Los Angeles Clippers will try to rebound from a confounding loss in the first half of a back-to-back set when they continue a four-game road swing today against the Miami Heat. After opening its Eastern Conference tour on Monday with a 119-117 victory over the Charlotte Hornets, Los Angeles coughed up an 18-point, first-quarter lead on Wednesday and lost in overtime to the Orlando Magic, 116-111. The Clippers went the final 3:22 of regulation without scoring against the team with the NBA's worst record, giving up the last six points. Los Angeles again was outscored 6-0 down the stretch of overtime. Since Nov. 19, Los Angeles is 5-5 and scored at least 114 points in each of the five wins. The Clippers scored 112 points or fewer in each of the five losses. Los Angeles' offensive woes were pronounced at Orlando. Consider as well that the Clippers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. |
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12-08-22 | Red Wings +1.5 v. Panthers | 1-5 | Loss | -145 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Panthers are facing two major issues: injuries among their forwards and uncertainty at goalie. Panthers coach Paul Maurice played Tuesday's game without four of his top nine forwards: captain Aleksander Barkov (non-COVID illness); Anton Lundell (upper-body injury); Anthony Duclair (foot); and Patric Hornqvist (upper body). Hornqvist and Duclair are on injured reserve, although the latter could return this month. Barkov and Lundell are day-to-day. Barkov (39) and Duclair (31) combined for 70 goals last season, and Lundell, 21, is a player on the rise with 22 goals in 89 NHL games. At goalie, Spencer Knight was pulled on Tuesday after allowing three goals on 15 shots. Sergei Bobrovsky, who opened the season as the starter, has struggled this season. He is 4-6-1 with a 3.84 goals-against average that is on pace to be the worst GAA of his 13-year career. Knight has been the better goalie this season, going 8-4-3 with a 2.64 GAA. But it remains to be seen if Knight getting pulled on Tuesday will open the door for a Bobrovsky start today. Meanwhile, the rebuilding Red Wings are much improved and will enter today on a two-game win streak. In fact, Detroit has won four straight road games. Overall this season, Detroit is 6-3-2 on the road. The Red Wings are getting excellent goaltending from Ville Husso, who is 11-4-3 with a 2.54 GAA. The 27-year-old native of Finland had a career year for St. Louis last season, going 25-7-6 with a 2.56 GAA. |
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12-07-22 | Celtics v. Suns | 125-98 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This game could easily go either way, as the two of the best teams in the NBA take on each other for the first time in 2022-23. Chris Paul will probably miss his 15th consecutive game, but the Celtics could be shorthanded, too. Both Malcolm Brogdon and Al Horford are important players for this Boston team, and if they sit out, I’m going with the Suns. Phoenix has won seven of its last eight games on the home court. The Suns will be highly motivated to bounce back from that heavy loss at Dallas and prove their worth against the NBA-leading Celtics. Phoenix is 10-3 ATS in its previous 13 encounters with Boston. |
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12-07-22 | Nebraska v. Indiana -12.5 | 65-81 | Win | 100 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hoosiers have won seven of their last eight games. Even though they were held to their lowest offensive output of the season against Rutgers, they are very good offensively, especially at home where they are scoring more than 85 points per game while making 56 percent of their shots. They have also shot the ball well from the free throw line and they’re very aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring opportunities. They also do a good job protecting the ball and won’t give the Cornhuskers a lot of easy scoring opportunities. |
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12-07-22 | Sabres v. Blue Jackets +1.5 | 9-4 | Loss | -170 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Luukkonen has conceded three or more goals in four of his five appearances this season, giving him a 4.17 GAA and .856 save percentage on the year. Columbus swept the three-game season series a year ago and is 10-3-2 against the Sabres over the previous six seasons. |
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12-06-22 | Iowa +2.5 v. Duke | 62-74 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Duke has been overvalued in the betting market so far this season, covering the spread just twice in its last six games. Iowa has been undervalued dating back to the end of last year, covering in 11 of its last 15 contests. The Hawkeyes have won six straight games against ACC opponents and have been one of the top offensive teams in college basketball. Duke does not have good shooting numbers, which is going to be tough to correct in a neutral-site venue. |
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12-06-22 | Pistons +7.5 v. Heat | 116-96 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Heat entered Monday night winners of four of their previous five games and stood tied for second in the Southeast Division with the Wizards, two games behind the Hawks for the top spot. Miami is 2-2 in the second game of back-to-back situations this season with a -2.7-ppg scoring differential (108.3 ppg for, 111 ppg against) in those contests. The Heat have posted an 8-4 record at home this season with a +1.7-ppg scoring margin (111 ppg for, 109.3 ppg against) in South Beach. Miami is 7-8 against Eastern Conference foes on the season with a -1.7-ppg scoring differential (108.6 ppg for, 110.3 ppg against) to date. |
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12-05-22 | Kent State +15 v. Gonzaga | 66-73 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kent State is exactly the opposite of the type of team that you want to face after a crushing loss. The Golden Flashes are a sneaky-good opponent that are flying under the radar, covering the spread in every game this season. They are one of the most experienced teams in the country, led by a trio of seniors, so they are prepared for this type of game. Kent State gave Houston all it could handle, so I am not worried about the Golden Flashes being overwhelmed. I would be concerned about Gonzaga’s intensity level if I were a Bulldogs’ fan, as they are coming off a crushing loss and will not be motivated by the name on the jersey in this spot. They have been overvalued this year, covering the spread once in their last seven games. |
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12-04-22 | Oregon v. UCLA -9.5 | 56-65 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oregon has owned UCLA over the last two years, and I’m expecting the Bruins to get revenge today in front of the home fans. At the moment, UCLA looks like a better team than the Ducks, who have struggled to shoot the rock so far this season. I’m looking for the Bruins’ backcourt to make a difference, so keep your eyes on Jaquez, Bailey, and Tyger Campbell, who had eight assists against Stanford. On the other side, the Ducks will try to attack the rim and feed N’Faly Dante and Kel’el Ware in the paint. But without a solid shooting night from deep, I highly doubt their chances to keep it close or upset the Bruins in LA. |
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12-04-22 | Seahawks -7 v. Rams | 27-23 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Seattle QB Geno Smith leads all NFL quarterbacks in QBR Rating this season at 108.5. In fact, Smith is 14-5 ATS in his last nineteen NFL starts, including 5-0 SUATS when coming off consecutive losses. With the shell-of-themselves Rams 0-6 SUATS in this series, as well as 1-8 SUATS as a home dog, and with the Seahawks arriving off back-to-back losses consider that Seattle head coach Peter Carroll is 11-1 SUATS in Game 12 of the season with the Seahawks, including 10-0 SUATS when Seattle is not a double-digit favorite. |
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12-04-22 | Titans +4.5 v. Eagles | 10-35 | Loss | -108 | 46 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Eagles win over the Packers on Sunday night was impressive, to say the least. Not only did they manage to amass 363 rushing yards in the contest, (the eighth most in the Super Bowl era) but the Eagles rushed for 153 yards on 18 carries in the first quarter alone. Then in the fourth quarter, they rushed for 92 yards on another 18 carries. Whew. However, we don’t know if another onslaught of the same magnitude is possible this week against the Titans’ 3rd ranked rush defense, one that is allowing 85 RYPG. In addition, Tennessee is 4-0 ATS in matchups when both teams are coming off non-division battles, and 11-2 ATS as a dog of 5-plus points. The Eagles seal the deal entering with a 1-8 ATS ledger when coming off an ATS win versus a foe coming off an ATS loss. |
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12-04-22 | Broncos v. Ravens -9 | 9-10 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Near double digit chalk role is always a bit scary, but until the Broncos can manufacture any sort of reliable offense, they will continue as a solid "go-against", especially with "over/under" proponents, as the "under" has reaped gold: 10-of-11. If the Broncos had scored 18 pts in each of their games, they would stand at 9-2, & not 3-8. Ravens' 2nd-ranked rushing game should provide be enough "O" to cover the spot. Tied with Cincy atop AFC North, to they cannot afford any slippage. |
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12-03-22 | Purdue +17 v. Michigan | 22-43 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units We’re sure those who watched the Wolverines in the second half last week have already plunked their money down on the maize-and-blue, but we think the Boilers deserve more than just a passing glance. Purdue is 3-0 in its last 3 Neutral Site games, 7-1 ATS as conference dogs of 8 or more points, 6-1 ATS off a double-digit Big Ten road win, and 4-1 ATS versus undefeated conference opponents. Word out of Michigan is that RB Corum is not expected to play, as Harbaugh plans to save him for the playoffs. But even without him, the Wolverines rushed for 254 yards against Ohio State, a stat that does not bode well for the Boilers considering they are just 2-5 ATS this season in games where they’ve lost the overland battle. However, before going with Michigan know that head coach Jeff Brohm brings a 28-14 ATS career dog log into this contest, including 7-1 ATS versus foes coming off an ATS win of 20+ points. And while a Buckeye letdown did not occur in this game last year when Michigan destroyed Iowa, we’d be shocked if it doesn’t rear its head here today. In what marks the first meeting for these two programs since 2017, we look for the Wolverines to fall to 3-10 ATS when playing off a SU road dog win. |
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12-03-22 | LSU +17.5 v. Georgia | 30-50 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Tigers were clearly looking ahead to tonight’s title game against the Bulldogs when they were undressed by Texas A&M, 38-23. That defeat ended a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS run for 1st-year head coach Brian Kelly and his Bengals, and the early money has poured in on defending national champ Georgia. It’s important to remember, though, that Kelly is 18-7 ATS as a dog when coming off a loss in his CFB career, including 11-3 ATS versus .700 or greater opponents. Solid history for LSU in this series of late with a 4-0-1 ATS skein in progress, plus the bayou boys have cashed 7 straight tickets in Neutral Site games. Kelly’s heroes are also 8-3 ATS as dogs of 7 or more points while Georgia is just 1-4 SU and 0-4-1 ATS when seeking revenge in this series (Tigers took down Dawgs, 37-10, in 2019 SEC title bout). |
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12-03-22 | Fresno State +3 v. Boise State | 28-16 | Win | 100 | 26 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units So, even though Boise clobbered Fresno this year, 40-20, we know that the wild horses are a whimpering 1-7 ATS after scoring 40 or more points, plus 1-4 ATS in Mountain West Conference title games. We also know that Fresno stands 4-0 ATS in MWC championship contests, with three of those tickets coming against the Broncos. And since BSU has won two straight against the west coasters, its poor 2-5 ATS record at home versus a foe seeking double revenge comes into play here against the Bulldogs’ outstanding 7-1-1 ATS record when playing with double revenge. To cap it off, Fresno's HC has a penchant for getting his teams up in double revenge situations, going 10-5 SU and 9-5-1 ATS in his career, including 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS with his current school. |
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12-03-22 | Kansas State +2 v. TCU | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 22 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Despite losing starting QB Adrian Martinez on the first series of the game, the Wildcats bounced back to take a 28-10 lead at the half under backup QB Will Howard. Unfortunately for KSU, Howard and a half dozen other major K-State contributors were felled by injury in the second stanza, and the Horned Frogs took advantage by scoring the final 28 points of the game. Howard looks ready to go here, and his team has gone 4-1 ATS of late in this series, 4-0 ATS the last four Neutral Site games, and 5-2 ATS with single conference revenge. That goes hand in hand with TCU’s 0-4 ATS failure in Neutral Site games, and its 3-6 ATS mark as Big 12 road chalk of 6 or fewer points. How much longer can the Froggies keep their unbeaten streak going while the pressure increases exponentially with every passing week? |
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12-02-22 | Rockets v. Suns -11.5 | 122-121 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Suns have won six straight games and seven straight home games. They have one of the best offenses in the league and they played better in their last three games, scoring more than 120 points per game while making over 50 percent of their shots. They are very aggressive on the offensive glass and will get a lot of extra scoring opportunities against the Rockets. They also do a good job protecting the ball and won’t give up a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Rockets are terrible defensively, especially on the road where they are giving up more than 117 points per game, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the hot-shooting Suns. The Rockets have lost four of their last six games and four of their last five road games |
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12-02-22 | Pelicans v. Spurs +7.5 | 117-99 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pelicans have not been near as threatening when on the road, losing four out of their last five road games. The Spurs have been competitive at home. They have played six out of their last nine games on the road which has not helped matters in their losing streak. San Antonio has recently covered the spread against the Nuggets, Grizzlies, and Warriors all within their last six home games. The Spurs have been decent in the offensive end, sinking at least 110 points in three out of their last four games, equating to an average of 113.3 points. This includes 110 points against this Pelicans squad in that span and 138 points against the Lakers in their previous home game. |
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12-02-22 | Heat v. Celtics -7 | 120-116 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oddsmakers were taking their time in releasing a line for this game due to Butler’s status. He is Miami’s leading scorer, so his availability will certainly change the line by multiple points. However, I am going to find myself on Boston either way in this matchup. The Celtics have covered the spread in five straight games and are on a 10-game home winning streak. They have the best offense in the NBA and Tatum is looking like an MVP favorite right now. Miami does not have enough offensive firepower to keep pace, so I am expecting a similar result to Wednesday night. |
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12-02-22 | North Texas +8.5 v. UTSA | 27-48 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Chaparral Birds enter on a 9-game win streak following a 1-2 start, but have cashed a ticket in just four of those games. The fact that UTSA has been double-digit chalk in six of its last seven contests makes the opening line of -8.5 look mighty appealing against a North Texas team that lost on this field six weeks ago, 31-21. However, sub .600 teams in conference championship games seeking same-season revenge are 6-0 ATS since 2000. The Eagles also own a profitable 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS mark against foes who surrender 22 or more PPG this season. While the game host’s 7-2 and 6-3 ATS success in C-USA title bouts points to the Roadrunners, consider that same-season revengers taking on opponents coming off a win who scored 34-plus points in their last contest, are 10-2 ATS since 2010. That, and UNT’s 22-point demolition of UTSA last year – Traylor’s worst loss with the Roadrunners – is enough to put us on the dudes from Denton tonight. |
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11-30-22 | Raptors -2.5 v. Pelicans | 108-126 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a tough spot for the Pelicans. While they are home, where they have only lost three times all year, they face a suddenly healthy and surging Raptors team that has back all of its key players. The big boost is Siakam, who is off the injured list. But also, Scottie Barnes and VanVleet, who have spent time on the shelf, are back in the fold. We haven't seen that much of a fully loaded Raptors team, so look for this unit to do some damage. Meanwhile, the Pelicans have been bitten by the injury bug with McCollum out and Ingram questionable. So, while New Orleans is a tough place to play, I like the Raptors to cover here. Take the Raptors. |
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11-30-22 | Ohio State +5.5 v. Duke | 72-81 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Ohio State Buckeyes are the real deal. Their only loss of the season occurred against a ranked San Diego State team. They beat Cincinnati 81-53 and defeated #21 Texas Tech 80-73 on Wednesday. Offensively, the Buckeyes are more efficient than Duke, averaging 115.9 points per 100 possessions, ranking them sixth in DI compared to Duke with 112.3 points. The Buckeyes' defense has also been spectacular. Duke will take a lot of threes, averaging 22.4 three-point attempts per game and the Buckeyes are limiting foes to 26% shooting from deep. Duke has been inconsistent in the offensive end. They only scored 56 points in Sunday's loss and have yet to prove themselves offensively. They are shooting a poor 41.7% and are relying heavily on the defense. |
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11-29-22 | Jackson State v. Miami-OH -4.5 | 78-95 | Win | 100 | 1 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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11-28-22 | Pittsburgh v. Northwestern -7 | 87-58 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pitt may have three straight wins coming in but they are facing a Northwestern team that is battle tested in the early going. The Wildcats have beaten Georgetown on the road and took Auburn to the limit before falling a point short in Cancun. While Northwestern does miss the presence of Pete Nance, the fact remains that they have plenty of returning talent, led by Buie and Audige, to keep the Wildcats in games. The major difference we’ve seen between these teams so far is what we’ve seen on the defensive end of the floor. Pitt, while they have been average, has to contend with a Wildcats team that has stifled opposing teams to the tune of 32.1% shooting from the floor, which is second in the nation. Look for Northwestern’s defense, and home-court advantage, to be the difference in this one. |
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11-27-22 | Packers +6.5 v. Eagles | Top | 33-40 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
Prime Time Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units The ‘return to the norm’ is simply too strong to overcome as ATS losses begin to pile up with each passing week. With it the Eagles enter this week on a 3-game ATS losing skid while having been out yarded in half of their last six games. Granted, the Packers are facing demons of their own, but Aaron Rodgers thrives in these situations, and we expect nothing less today. With it the Pack checks in 7-1 ATS in game versus .750 or greater foes the past two seasons, as well as 8-2 ATS when coming off a Thursday contest. Meanwhile, the Green Birds enter 1-8 ATS versus foes off a SU home favorite loss, and just 3-8 ATS against foes coming off a Thursday game. To cap it off, Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers is 10-1 SUATS as a dog when the Packers are coming off a SU favorite loss, including 7-0 ATS versus .700 or greater foes. |
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11-27-22 | Mavs v. Bucks -7 | 115-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mavericks have struggled on the road and are having to play in back-to-back nights. They have gone 1-8 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a winning record and are winners of just one of their last six games ATS when playing on zero day’s rest. This does not even include the fact that the Mavericks play in Canada, then have to cross the border to take on Milwaukee. This is not a good scenario at all. The Bucks have been incredible at home this season. They are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a losing record on the road and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Milwaukee has the benefit of an extra day off and are at home. Should be a big night for the Bucks. |
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11-27-22 | Wizards v. Celtics -7.5 | 121-130 | Win | 100 | 8 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston has been a team on fire in the early going this season as the transition from Ime Udoka to Joe Mazzulla behind the bench has been seamless. The Celtics continue to pile up gaudy offensive numbers as the addition of Brogdon brought in another scoring option in the backcourt. Washington has been good on the defensive end of the floor but their offensive struggles are hard to overcome. Ranking second-worst in the league in scoring more than a month into the season is a tough sell, especially when you’re facing the league’s top scoring attack. Playing at home with all the weapons that they boast, you have to give the upper hand to the Celtics in this one. |
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11-27-22 | Grizzlies v. Knicks +2.5 | 127-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I like the Knicks here bouncing back from a bad home loss against the Blazers, who played without Damian Lillard. The Knicks committed 35 fouls and that was the difference. The Grizzlies are a very physical team, but the Knicks have the size to match them inside, especially with Mitchell Robinson back. I just think this is a good spot for the Knicks, at home, after a bad loss, playing a Grizzlies team that hit the road after a big win over a divisional rival. The Grizzlies are 7-12 against the spread this season and have lost 4 of their last 6 ATS. Take the Knicks here to cover. |
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11-27-22 | Raiders v. Seahawks -3.5 | 40-34 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If Carroll can guide this team to 10 or more wins and make the postseason sans Wilson and Wagner, he’s almost certain to win Coach of the Year.” Fast forward from June to November and 6-4 Seattle is more than halfway to the 10-win season few thought they could achieve. While the Seahawks have been a major surprise, the 3-7 Raiders have dutifully taken their place as one of the worst teams in the NFL, disappointing eyepatch fans everywhere as they stumble to their fourth losing season in the last five years. Things won’t get any easier after today, either, with Vegas lining up against New England, San Francisco, and Kansas City down the stretch. When it comes to today’s contest, Las Vegas has run out of luck in its last fi ve meetings with NFC West teams, going 1-4 ATS. Not so for Seattle, who boasts a 7-1 ATS record off a SUATS loss versus foes off a SUATS win. It’s not a stretch to suggest that these two are headed in opposite directions, and we won’t be on the one heading south. |
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11-27-22 | Warriors v. Wolves +2 | 137-114 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Golden State Warriors have been horrible on the road this season, as they are (1-9). I see their struggles continuing in this one, as they will allow the Timberwolves to score enough points to cover this spread. Golden State is currently allowing the 28th most points per game and they have the 21st-highest adjusted defensive rating in the league. |
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11-27-22 | North Carolina +1.5 v. Alabama | 101-103 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Tar Heels had their five-game winning streak snapped by the Pilots in their last game. They will try to bounce back from the loss with a win over the Crimson Tide, which will give them their sixth win in their last seven games. North Carolina is averaging 79.5 points per game. They scored 65 points in their last game, making 44 percent of their field goals and 16.7 percent of their three-pointers. R.J. Davis led the Tar Heels with 15 points and three rebounds. Armando Bacot finished with 13 points and nine rebounds, while Caleb Love added 12 points and three assists. North Carolina has played well defensively, giving up 70.5 points per game. They gave up 70 points in their last game and will need a similar effort if they want to get the win. |
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11-27-22 | Falcons v. Commanders -3.5 | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 3 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Commanders are 6-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SUATS wins as well as 4-1 ATS versus NFC South opponents. Meanwhile, the Dirty Birds enter 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS at home when coming off a win, and are 0-7 ATS in Game Twelve of the campaign. They are also riding a 10-game ITS (In The Stats) losing streak, currently the longest in the NFL. |
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11-26-22 | Jazz v. Suns -7 | 112-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Utah is playing their third game in four nights here and this marks their 14th road game this season against eight home games. The Jazz have sputtered on the defensive end of the floor lately and missing Conley is a big blow as he is a floor general on both ends. Phoenix has dealt with their share of injuries as well though Paul could be on the comeback trail in the near future. The Suns have the edge of playing at home the last couple of games so there is no travel involved for them leading into this contest. Phoenix has quality depth and they have been stellar at home this season: that’s enough to get by a tired, banged-up Utah squad here as they even the season series. |
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11-26-22 | East Carolina +4.5 v. Old Dominion | 50-71 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pirates enter with a far better as they have won 5 games and only dropped one this year. The Monarchs are 3-3 this year and are coming off a close loss to Davidson this week. Eastern Carolina is led by Javon Small, who is scoring over 20 points per game. East Carolina has shown that they score big with four of their fives wins coming by double figures. The Monarchs have lost two of their three losses by single digits. The scoring ability of the Pirates will keep them in this game and show that they can win on the road. |
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11-26-22 | Appalachian State v. Georgia Southern +6.5 | Top | 48-51 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Upset of the Week Rating: 4 Units App State is 2-7 ATS in lined games, 1-7 ATS as a favorite (!) and 0-4 ATS when coming off a victory. Georgia Southern is the opposite going 4-0 ATS in regular season finales and a sturdy 5-1 ATS in last home games. Finally, Eagles Coach Helton has never lost four straight (even though Southern Cal die-hards thought he lost every game there) and is 6-2 SUATS when coming off consecutive losses. |
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11-26-22 | Iowa State +10 v. TCU | Top | 14-62 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
Big-12 Game of the Mont Rating: 5 Units Iowa State has out-yarded each of their last five opponents, including a 422-246 margin over Texas Tech in last week’s 14-10 loss. They have also held eight opponents to a season-low – or 2nd low – yardage this year, and that is just enough to apply the slip-knot on the TCU noose. When you consider that the Clones are 5-1 ATS in this series over the last six matchups (3-0 ATS as a dog), and that they own a 6-0 ATS mark as conference road dogs, you’ll find your winner. Finally, playing on any CFB dog off two losses, both as a favorite, if they allow 21 or fewer PPG and they are facing an undefeated opponent is 13-2-1 since 1980. |
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11-26-22 | Oregon v. Oregon State +2.5 | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Oregon is only 8-15 ATS in this series when the Beavers are playing with revenge, including 1-5 ATS as a single-digit favorite. Oregon State has been formidable of late as a home dog of 7 or fewer points, going 6-1 ATS the last seven. Even more amazing is the fact that OSU has gone 9-1 SU and 9-0 ATS in its last ten home games, plus the Beavers have held their last three foes to season-low yards. Finally, head coach Jonathan Smith is 19-11 ATS in games where the Beavers are seeking revenge, including 6-0 SUATS the last six games. |
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11-26-22 | New Mexico State v. Liberty -24 | 49-14 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Freeze loves to catch fish in a barrel with hand grenades: 18-2 SU and 14-3 ATS versus sub .333 opponents by an average of 46-13. This includes a perfect 7-0 SUATS in lined games. This batch of ricin-infused tea also features an evil 18-6-1 ATS mark against teams coming off a SUATS loss, which is a specialty of all college football teams coming out of New Mexico. NMSU is 0-10 ATS off a dog loss while playing a foe off a SU favorite loss and 1-11 ATS in the last 12 Game 11’s. |
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11-25-22 | Iowa -7.5 v. Clemson | 74-71 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hawkeyes have some of the best offensive stats in college basketball. While they clearly haven't been playing world-beaters so far, what's even more impressive than their record is their execution. Individual performance may vary game-to-game, but a well-coached team that executes well will always put itself in a position to succeed. It's also a game between a great shooting team versus a squad that sucks at defending the three-point line. Iowa is 4-0 ATS this season and Clemson is 1-4. Bet the trend and take Iowa to cover. |
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11-25-22 | Arkansas v. Missouri +4 | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman’s goal is to avoid the pangs of a letdown versus Mizzou, but the fact is the Hogs bring a 4-11 SU and 2-13 ATS record into this contest when coming off a SU upset win, including 0-7 ATS versus foes coming off a win. Sitting at 5-6 in their final regular season game, the Tigers are a ‘Shaky 16’ team this week as it’s win or you’re not in time for Missouri. The good news for MU head coach Eli Drinkwitz, who just signed a contract extension several weeks ago, is the host in this series is 7-1 ATS. Drinkwitz also stands 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS versus a foe coming off a SU underdog win, as well as 3-0 SUATS versus sub .560 foe coming off a SU underdog win. Finally consider that Missouri is 9-3 ATS in Last Home Games versus foes coming off a win, including 8-0 ATS versus foes off a win of fewer than 20 points. |
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11-25-22 | NC State v. North Carolina -6 | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Simply expect the unexpected when Tars perform. Led GaTech 17-0 in 2nd, but no pts thereafter for UNC's 4th-ranked "O" vs GT's 95th-ranked "D". 'Pack on 1-7 ATS slide, & winless ATS away. In addition, 'Pack is 2-9 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games, and 2-9 ATS as conference dogs of 8 or fewer points. Can't run, & Finley not the answer. Maye & Co bounce back. |
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11-25-22 | Baylor +10 v. Texas | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units BU is a perfect 8-0 ATS when coming off a loss and its opponent is coming off a win. The Bears are also 7-1 ATS when coming off a home loss, plus they outgained TCU, 501-442, in last week’s last-second loss to the charmed Frogs. For more anti-Longhorn ammunition, defending Big 12 champs like Baylor are 10-5 ATS when coming off two losses. Yes, the Texas offense has looked downright scary lately, scoring 34.3 PPG in its last six outings, but the Longhorns are 4-8 SUATS in LHGs, including 0-4 SUATS when coming off a double-digit win. |
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11-24-22 | Patriots +2.5 v. Vikings | 26-33 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minnesota was a team that I had overrated heading into its abysmal showing against Dallas, although that turned out worse than anyone could have imagined. The Vikings’ stats do not match their record, as they have actually been outscored overall this season. Plenty of bettors are going to look at the records of these teams and back Minnesota, but I like New England here. The Patriots have quietly been playing very solid football, covering the spread in six of its last seven games. They have the much better defense and have won five straight meetings between these teams. |
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11-24-22 | Connecticut -3 v. Oregon | 83-59 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Huskies have won five straight games. They played well offensively in those games, scoring more than 87 points per game while making over 51 percent of their shots. They do a good job finding the open man and they’re aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring opportunities. They have also done a good job protecting the ball and won’t give the Ducks a lot of easy scoring opportunities. |
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11-24-22 | Mississippi State +2.5 v. Ole Miss | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While the visiting Bulldogs haven’t done much better down the stretch, a litany of strong trends support Mississippi State in this battle for the 3rd spot in the SEC West between these intrastate rivals. While Ole Miss owns the better record overall at 8-3 / 4-3 compared to the 7-4 / 3-4 Bulldogs, the Rebels are just 1-6 ATS as conference favorites of fewer than 7 points, and 1-5 ATS in LHGs. Across the field, MSU head coach Mike Leach is backed by an 8-0 ATS mark when playing with double conference revenge, a 10-1 ATS record after an unlined home game, and a 6-1 ATS skein as a series visitor versus Ole Miss. MSU looks to improve to 5-1 ATS as an SEC dog of 8 or fewer points. |