Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-17-21 | Valparaiso v. Stanford -13.5 | 60-74 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cardinal did get beat by a strong Santa Clara team, but Valparaiso is going to be much easier to defeat. Stanford beat San Jose State by 14 points on Monday, and I think this opponent is similar on a talent level. The Beacons have yet to cover or win this season and allowed Illinois-Chicago to upset them in overtime on Saturday. Stanford should cover the spread. |
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11-17-21 | Rockets v. Thunder -2.5 | 89-101 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a nice payback spot for the Thunder, who fell 124-91 in Houston on Oct. 22. That remains the Rockets' lone win. OKC had won four straight before losing its last two. We should get a nice bounceback game from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who scored a season-low 10 points in Monday's loss to the Heat. Houston rookie Jalen Green was minus-37 in Monday's 34-point loss at Memphis, with three turnovers and one assist. He might have a bigger role as a creator if Kevin Porter Jr. (thigh) can't play. Lay the small number. |
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11-17-21 | Central Arkansas v. Baylor -34.5 | 47-92 | Win | 100 | 3 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Central Arkansas is off to a cold start. It lost by 35 and 32 to unranked opponents in its first two games. Now, it has to face a Baylor team that is red-hot. KenPom ranks Baylor as the sixth-best team in the nation, while Central Arkansas is terrible on both ends of the court. It is 322nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 346th in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. Both Bears teams play with pace, which favors a blowout. Lay the points with Baylor. |
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11-17-21 | Pacers -6.5 v. Pistons | 89-97 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pistons already have a limited roster, but things are even worse now that Kelly Olynyk (knee) is out for an extended period. They did beat the Raptors without him, but they lost both of the other two games that he missed by at least 20 points. Those included a 22-point defeat at home at the hands of the Kings on Monday. Look for them to have a hard time scoring enough points to keep up with a Pacers team that should have Malcolm Brogdon, Caris LeVert and Domantas Sabonis available. |
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11-17-21 | Wizards v. Hornets +1 | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Wizards have won five straight to get to 10-3, and Bradley Beal is coming back tonight. But I'll back the Hornets to win their fourth straight because what they're doing is more sustainable. Washington needed a 19-point comeback to beat the lowly Pelicans last time out. Spencer Dinwiddie is coming off amazing games versus New Orleans and Orlando; he'll find it harder to maintain that level versus LaMelo Ball. Back Charlotte to improve to 7-1 ATS in the last eight home meetings. |
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11-17-21 | Drexel v. St. Joe's +1.5 | 78-75 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units ESPN has the Hawks by 2.2 points and Sagarin by 2.7. The Hawks are coming off a convincing 80-60 victory over NEC Champion Mount St. Mary's on Saturday. Drexel won this matchup by four last year, but the Hawks have won the past nine at home in the series. |
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11-16-21 | Spurs v. Clippers -7.5 | 92-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 60 m | Show | |
Los Angeles is looking to begin another winning streak after having its seven-game run snapped by Chicago on Sunday. Paul George is among the top scorers in the NBA with an average of 26.5 points per game and is coming off his fifth double-double of the season as he had 27 points and 11 rebounds against the Bulls. The Spurs are just 1-7 against Western Conference rivals and have allowed at least 114 in three straight contests. Take the Clippers. |
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11-16-21 | 76ers +10.5 v. Jazz | 85-120 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The 76ers have gone 0-4 SU and ATS without Joel Embiid, but I like them to be competitive tonight at Utah. The Jazz have lost four of five and have been getting punished inside. Tobias Harris and Andre Drummond should have big games. The line is inflated based on Utah's performance at home last season. Take the points. |
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11-16-21 | Nevada v. Santa Clara +4 | 74-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Santa Clara has four guys averaging at least 14 points -- a lot of returning talent -- and ranks fifth nationally in shooting percentage (58.1) and eighth in assists per game (23.0). Nevada is solid but should not be giving 3.5 points on the road, and it wouldn't surprise me to see this number dip soon. |
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11-16-21 | Seton Hall +8.5 v. Michigan | 67-65 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Michigan 7-foot sophomore Hunter Dickinson gets his first real challenge tonight against Seton Hall, which features 6-10 Tyrese Samuel and 7-2 Ike Obiagu. The Pirates are relishing the underdog role as they visit Ann Arbor as part of the Gavitt Tipoff Games. They shouldn't be fazed too much by the hostile atmosphere: their average age is 21.3 years old. The Wolverines, of course, are loaded again, but they are shooting 56.5 percent from the free-throw line. That could come into play late. Grab the points. |
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11-16-21 | Western Michigan v. Eastern Michigan +5.5 | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units When Eastern Michigan hosts Western Michigan in Mac action tonight they will do so knowing the eagles are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in Last Home Games when not coming off a double-digit loss and hosting a foe coming off a spread loss. EMU is also 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS on Tuesdays in conference play, including 4-0 SUATS as a dog. With the visiting Broncos riding a 0-4 ATS losing skid as favorites on Tuesdays in MAC games, we're going with EMU tonight. |
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11-16-21 | William & Mary v. Norfolk State -2.5 | 74-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Spartans were named the team to beat in the MEAC after winning it last year and reaching the Big Dance and are 3-0 for the first time 1995-96. William & Mary has lost its first two games by double digits. These schools are about 45 miles apart on I-64 in Virginia. The Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games. I've seen this number rise to -3 already at some books so let's lock it in. |
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11-16-21 | Winthrop -2.5 v. Middle Tennessee | 65-76 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Normally, I might worry that this is the school's first road game of the year, but the Eagles have the nation's longest road win streak dating back to last season with 12 straight. D.J. Burns Jr. leads Winthrop in scoring at 23.0 ppg while shooting an absurd 72 percent. Middle Tennessee is 2-0 but has played two cupcakes. Winthrop is 16-5 ATS in its past 21 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. |
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11-16-21 | Wright State v. Purdue -16 | 52-96 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Boilermakers are loaded with talent, and according to KenPom, they rank second in adjusted offensive efficiency and 24th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They won their first two games by 29 and 25 points. Now they get to face the Wright State Raiders, who let up 96 points to Marshall in their last game. Lay the points. |
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11-15-21 | Long Beach State +29 v. UCLA | 79-100 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Long Beach State is not a bad team -- it has a handful of good fifth-year seniors and added Joel Murray, a former Division II All-American, via transfer. He had 28 points for the Beach in the opener. I'm not saying UCLA is going to lose this game obviously, but it would be natural letdown spot off last Friday's big win in a potential Final Four preview vs. Villanova. For what it's worth, two seasons ago the Beach only lost by four at UCLA. I'd think they can stay within this big number. |
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11-15-21 | Bulls -1 v. Lakers | 121-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These teams are in a similar spot. They both played Sunday (and won) and are missing a key star. The Lakers are without LeBron James (abdomen) and the Bulls are without Nikola Vucevic (COVID-19). On the bright side for the Bulls, Coby White is expected to make his season debut. The Bulls still have a lot of firepower with Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan and Lonzo Ball. I think Ball and Alex Caruso will make things difficult for Lakers guard Russell Westbrook and the Bulls get the win Monday. |
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11-15-21 | Providence +5.5 v. Wisconsin | 63-58 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I believe Providence has a more complete roster than Wisconsin, returning four starters from last year's team - including big man Nate Watson. The Badgers will have no answer for Watson, who is averaging 18 points, eight rebounds and two blocks so far this season. I think the Friars are more than capable of winning the game outright, so I love taking them with the points here. |
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11-15-21 | Rams -3.5 v. 49ers | 10-31 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units As far as the Rams are concerned, they will be monitoring QB Matthew Stafford’s inured back. At halftime last week he was just 9-of-16 for 62 yards and the pair of picks. A bigger problem looms on the other sideline where slumping San Francisco is just 1-11 the last dozen games when playing at home in Santa Clara. Frisco appears destined for its sixth losing season in seven years. With Los Angeles 5-1 ATS as a division road favorite of late, and the Niners 0-4 SUATS at home this season, as well as 1-3 SUATS in their last four games under the Monday Night lights, we’ll back the better team tonight. |
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11-15-21 | Rockets +11 v. Grizzlies | 102-136 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Coach Stephen Silas suggested he's going to change the starting lineup of his 1-12 Rockets, and a good move would be benching Daniel Theis. Houston has been outscored by 21 points per 100 possessions with Theis on the floor. More minutes for 19-year-old Alperen Sengun (9.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg) would be a plus. Either way, look for Houston to be more competitive tonight against the NBA's worst defensive team. Before getting blown out by Phoenix, the Rockets had played seven straight games in which they lost by 13 or less. Take the points. |
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11-15-21 | Suns -3.5 v. Wolves | 99-96 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Suns could be forced to play without Deandre Ayton (leg) for the sixth straight game. His absences haven’t slowed them down, though, considering that they are 5-0 with him out. They are 4-1 ATS on the road this season, which is where they will be again Monday. This could be another favorable matchup, considering the Timberwolves are just 1-6 ATS at home. They have lost five straight at home, four of which they lost by at least nine points. |
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11-15-21 | Southern Miss +14.5 v. TCU | 51-83 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Southern Miss could not find the basket from long distance against Louisiana on Friday. The Golden Eagles went 2-for-19 from 3-point range and and committed 25 turnovers while losing by 21 points. I think we are seeing a reaction to that performance in this line. I don't know if TCU is good enough to win by 15. The Horned Frogs only beat McNeese by 16 points in their season opener, and McNeese is consistently ranked among the bottom 15-20 teams in the nation. Grab Southern Miss and the points. |
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11-15-21 | Kings -4.5 v. Pistons | 129-107 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We're getting strong value with them at this number. Sacramento has had two days off after a stretch of four games in six days during which it went 0-4. The Pistons are coming off a 2-1 road trip but have lost three straight at home and four of five overall on their own court. Take the Kings. |
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11-15-21 | Celtics -2.5 v. Cavs | 98-92 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics have had two days to stew over blowing a 19-point lead in Saturday's 91-89 loss in Cleveland. For the rematch, they get Al Horford and Josh Richardson back in the lineup. Look for Jayson Tatum (1 of 8 from 3-point range, 8 of 22 overall, six turnovers) to play much better as the Celtics get payback. |
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11-15-21 | The Citadel +3.5 v. Presbyterian | 70-74 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I'll take the Citadel to give Presbyterian some trouble Monday. The Bulldogs just beat Pittsburgh outright by 15 when they were +10.5-point underdogs at the close. I think they will again outperform their expectations. The model agrees, making this game a pick'em. Take the points. |
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11-15-21 | Illinois -7.5 v. Marquette | 66-67 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Maryland transfer Darryl Morsell (23.5 ppg) is carrying Shaka Smart's new team, but the other Golden Eagles are 8 for 41 from 3-point range. Tonight they host a loaded Illinois team. The Illini are relishing the chance to show they go a lot deeper than Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn. Dosunmo now plays for the Chicago Bulls, while Cockburn is serving the final game of a suspension. Led by Coleman Hawkins, Jacob Grandison, Trent Frazier and Andre Curbelo, the Illini have held their first two opponents to 33.6 percent from the field. Lay the points. |
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11-14-21 | Blazers v. Nuggets -6.5 | Top | 95-124 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day The Trail Blazers have been bad on the road this season, posting a 1-6 record there ATS. Now, they’ll have another uphill battle against the Nuggets with Damian Lillard (abdomen) ruled out. While he’s struggled with his efficiency, he’s still averaged 20 points per game. Filling in for him will be the likes of Anfernee Simons and Dennis Smith Jr. The Nuggets could roll here. |
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11-14-21 | Texas State v. Vanderbilt -7 | 60-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Vanderbilt hosts a Texas State team that is coming off an 84-59 loss at LSU. The Commodores return two starters from last year's team - including Scotty Pippen Jr., who averaged 20.8 points last season and was a Preseason First Team All-SEC selection. In Vanderbilt's 91-72 season-opening win against Alabama State, it shot just 28.6 percent from 3-point range. Texas State allowed LSU to shoot 55 percent from beyond the arc, so I expect Vanderbilt to bounce back from long distance and cover at home. |
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11-14-21 | Vikings +3 v. Chargers | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 93 h 57 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Inter-Conference Game of the Week The Vikings went up 17-3 just prior to halftime, but some more miserable time management allowed the Ravens to score a touchdown in the final seconds before intermission (that’s on you, Mike Zimmer). Still, the much-maligned Cousins had a nice performance, despite the loss, as he went 17-of-28 for 187 yards and two passing TDs and a running touchdown. The bottom line is Minnesota’s season – and possibly Zimmer’s job – is on the line in this contest. With seven of Minny’s eight games this season having been decided by 8 or fewer points, including three overtime sessions, we’ll take a look at the fact that Minnesota is 15-5-1 ATS as a dog in non-division games when coming off a loss under Mike Zimmer, including 9-1-1 ATS versus .600 or greater opponents. |
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11-14-21 | Western Carolina v. East Carolina -7.5 | 79-95 | Win | 100 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is an in-state rivalry game with Western Carolina coming off two straight underdog covers to open the season against Bowling Green and Wake Forest. I have ECU ranked right around the same tier as Wake Forest, and that game had an 18.5-point spread and was decided by 12. We should see a similar double-digit result, so this line is too soft. Take the favorite. |
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11-14-21 | Saints +3 v. Titans | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 90 h 0 m | Show |
Rating: 4 unit NFL Mismatch of the Week New Orleans dropped 22 points on Atlanta in the 4th quarter to take the lead, after trailing by 18, then failed on a 2-point conversion to leave the door open for a field goal win by the Falcons. That’s exactly what happened, so we expect to see a frustrated bunch of Saints in Music City this afternoon, taking it out on a Tennessee team that suddenly looks unbeatable. We know better. The visiting squad in this series has cashed four straight tickets, and the chest-puffing Titans have collapsed after rumbling with the Rams, going 1-6 ATS of late. Also consider that NFL teams coming off four consecutive underdog wins in a row are 2-5 SU and 1-5-1 ATS since 1999 as a favorite the following game. |
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11-14-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team +10 | 19-29 | Win | 100 | 90 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units QB Tom Brady is 20-4 SU against everyone other than New Orleans since joining the Bucs, but only 1-3 SU versus the Saints. On the other side of the field, the WFT enters on a 0-4 SUATS slide knowing that head coach Ron Rivera is 12-1 ATS against the NFC South (his former division) when his troops are coming off a SUATS loss. And speaking of the NFC South, Washington sports a 12-3 ATS log as a dog of more than 3 points against this division. With the Bucs 0-5-2 ATS versus NFC East opponents, and Ron Rivera is 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS during the regular season in his NFL career against foes coming off a Bye, including 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS versus non-division foes, we have to go with the WFT. |
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11-14-21 | Lions +9 v. Steelers | Top | 16-16 | Win | 100 | 47 h 53 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NFL Upset of the Week The plain truth is that the Steelers’ Monday Night win over Chicago featured one of the worst-officiated games we have ever seen. The officials seemingly did everything in their power to decide this outcome. The greatest offense by the officials occurred when the Bears seemingly forced a punt in the fourth quarter. Cassius Marsh sacked Roethlisberger on third down, but Marsh was flagged for taunting – even though he only stared at Pittsburgh’s bench. He didn’t even say anything! Yet, the flag was thrown. Chances are the same crew won’t be working this game, which could be bad news for Detroit. No problem, we say, as the Lions are a hearty 8-1 ATS with rest, while Aged Beef Ben and his charges have gone 2-5 ATS after Monday Nighters. The win-starved Lions should want this more, and if Roethlisberger is as tired as he looked on Monday, Detroit has a great opportunity to get off the 0-8 schneid. Also consider that playing on any winless NFL with rest from Game Five out team versus a .500 or greater opponent if the opponent is not coming off a double-digit win is 13-0 ATS since 1980. |
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11-14-21 | Florida State -1 v. Florida | 55-71 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Seminoles have dominated the Gators over the past years. They have covered the spread in the last eight matchups, including seven straight-up wins in a row. FSU put up 105 points against Penn, while Florida struggled in its first game. Florida State has more firepower and should continue the series dominance. |
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11-13-21 | Grizzlies -4 v. Pelicans | 101-112 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pelicans’ season has quickly gone into a downward spiral. Zion Williamson (foot) isn’t close to playing in his first game and Brandon Ingram (hip) has missed seven straight. The result has been a 1-12 record with a -11.1 point differential that is the second worst in the NBA. If Ingram is out again, this game could get out of hand in a hurry. |
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11-13-21 | New Mexico v. Colorado -14.5 | 76-87 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Colorado is a top-60 program, and New Mexico comes in below 250th in most rankings. We're getting a soft line because the Buffaloes almost lost to Montana State, needing overtime to secure a four-point win when they were 12-point favorites. I make this matchup -19 in favor of the Buffaloes. Take the favorites to cover. |
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11-13-21 | Heat +7 v. Jazz | 111-105 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Rough Friday in the NBA for me. I blame La Nina or Nino or whatever, the weather here is wacky. Which reminds me, time to stream the final season of Narcos. No show is better. Anyways, there is no way the Heat should be 7-point underdogs against anyone whether Jimmy Butler plays or not (he probably won't). |
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11-13-21 | Maryland +13 v. Michigan State | 21-40 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units It’s true the Terps have pitched a no-no in conference games this season (0-6 ATS), but head coach Mike Locksley is 2-0 ATS in his career in games against foes coming off a SU favorite loss – and a hard loss it was, as the Spartans had their undefeated “bubble burst” in the loss at Purdue. Despite Michigan State’s surprising success in 2021, the Spartans are just 1-6 ATS as Big Ten chalk of more than seven points, and 2-7 ATS at home versus conference revenge. Meanwhile, the Terps have cashed in three of their last four games against MSU, and the visitor in this series is on a 3-0 ATS run. Consider that playing againts any CFB favorite who started the season 7-0 or better, coming off its inital loss (as a favorite) in which they scored 28 or more points if they are facing a conference opponent is 11-2 ATS since 1980.. |
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11-13-21 | Michigan -1 v. Penn State | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 65 h 22 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Big-10 Game of the Week Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin brings is a 13-23 SU and 16-20 ATS career mark into games against opponents with a better win percentage, including 5-11 SU and 4-12 ATS versus .875 or greater foes. This will mark the fourth time in the last five years these two teams will meet as ranked teams, so neither side should find the stage too large. However, to Michigan’s credit, the Maize-and-Blue did not buckle beneath the weight of the “bubble burst” following the contested loss against Sparty, methodically grinding out a 29-7 win over Indiana last Saturday, holding the Hoosiers to just 195 total yards. The feeling here is the Wolverines are the better team, and they’ll be out to avenge a season-ending home loss to the Lions last year, one that denied them a .500 campaign. Consider that Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh is 40-8 |
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11-13-21 | Oklahoma v. Baylor +5.5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 101 | 65 h 10 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Big-12 Play of the Day OU is still unbeaten but not ATS under Riley, instead they’re a middling 9-14 in that category. There is one Jimmy the Greek style checkmark in the Sooners column, a powerful 14-2 ATS mark as road chalk of 8 or fewer. BU is coming off a surprise loss to TCU last week but in their series with OU, Da Bears are 3-0 ATS in the last three and 7-1 ATS as a home dog when coming off a loss. In conference revenge games, Baylor is a sturdy 10-2 ATS, plus, BU is 20-5 SUATS in Waco since 2011 against foes coming off a win, including 8-0 ATS as the dog. It’s only the eighth time in this long series both teams have been ranked, all of them since 2011, and OU is 4-3. Consider that since 1980, undefeated College Football teams playing on the regular season road from Game Nine out facing .700 or greater opponents are just 49-50 SU and 40-57-3 (41.2%). Say hello to Oklahoma. Worse, these same guys have seen their necks snap like they’re swinging from the gallows pole when they’re installed as road favorites of 4 or more points, falling to 14-31 ATS. And when installed as favorites of 4 or more points when coming off a win of 20 or more points, they drop to 16-13 SU and SU and 7-22 ATS in these games, including 6-7 SU and 1-12 ATS against foes that were favored by more than 7 points in their last game |
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11-12-21 | Villanova +4 v. UCLA | 77-86 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Wouldn't be a legitimate capper if I didn't preview this potential Final Four preview with an awesome late-night tipoff from UCLA. Frankly, this spread shocks me. The Bruins are good but I think a tad overrated -- remember, they barely snuck into the NCAA Tournament last year and should have lost in the First Four. Also, the Bruins lost starting big man Cody Riley to a knee injury in the opener. He averaged 10.0 points and 5.4 rebounds last season. Villanova is a veteran team that might not get this many points the rest of the regular season. UCLA might win at home but no way I'm not taking this many points. |
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11-12-21 | Idaho State v. Pepperdine -4.5 | 60-65 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It's obviously impossible to know in-depth about every team in the country. Don't know a heck of a lot about Idaho State of the Big Sky -- the Bengals were picked to finish sixth in the conference and opened with a win over Montana State. Pepperdine lost its two best players off last year's team that won the College Basketball Invitational but has eight guys back and a couple of good freshmen in Houston Mallette and Mike Mitchell Jr. Lorenzo Romar has recruited well wherever he has been. The SportsLine Projection Model has the Waves winning by 12. Sagarin by about 9. ESPN power rankings by 10.5. |
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11-12-21 | Indiana State v. Purdue -25.5 | 67-92 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Boilermakers are absolutely loaded and they proved it in their first game as they put up 96 points on 50 percent shooting. Even though the Sycamores won their first game, they didn’t look good. They turned the ball over at a very high rate and their defense was subpar. The Boilermakers should be able to put up 90-plus points again and cover. |
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11-12-21 | Kings v. Thunder +4.5 | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Thunder have been a much more competitive team at home than on the road. Despite three of their four home games being tough matchups against the Sixers, Warriors and Lakers, they are 3-1 ATS. Meanwhile, the Kings have lost three straight and might be without Tyrese Haliburton (back), who is listed as questionable, for the third straight game. I like the Thunder to keep this close. |
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11-12-21 | Cornell v. Lafayette -2.5 | 90-85 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cornell lost all five starters from its 2019-20 team -- the Ivy League didn't play last season -- while Lafayette has four starters back off last season's team that was a Patriot League contender. The SportsLine Projection Model has the Leopards winning by 11. Not sure I agree with that but ESPN's power rankings have Lafayette 6.6 points better. The Big Red are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games. |
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11-12-21 | Knicks v. Hornets +1.5 | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Knicks are known for defense under Tom Thibodeau but lately they've been getting lit up. Opponents are shooting 41 percent from deep over New York's last seven games. And the Knicks' starters are the biggest problem: they've been outscored by 15.6 points per 100 possessions. The young and talented Hornets got a huge win in Memphis last time out and I think they carry it over here. |
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11-12-21 | Northern Illinois +25.5 v. Indiana | 49-85 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units he Northern Illinois Huskies were impressive in their season opener, winning by seven as big underdogs to Washington. They registered 14 blocks and held Washington below 30 percent shooting. Indiana should win but this is too many points. |
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11-12-21 | Hartford v. Campbell -5.5 | 67-68 | Loss | -107 | 1 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This game is part of the Duke Veterans Day Weekend Showcase in Durham. The Camels are North Division favorites in the Big South; they returned 99 percent of their scoring and minutes played from last season. Hartford won the America East last season but is not as good defensively; this season they're picked to finish fourth. In their opener, the Hawks got 16 more free throws and still lost by 18 to Wagner. Look for Campbell to execute its Princeton offense effectively and cover. |
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11-11-21 | Heat v. Clippers -3.5 | 109-112 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After an overtime loss to the Lakers on Wednesday, the Heat have a quick turnaround to play again Thursday. To complicate matters, Jimmy Butler suffered a sprained ankle that will likely keep him out. Not only is he averaging 23.6 points per game, he’s one of the keys to their defense, averaging 2.1 steals with his ability to guard multiple positions. There’s just too much going against the Heat in this matchup. |
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11-11-21 | CS-Fullerton v. San Jose State +6 | 76-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units San Jose State wasn't good last season but has a new coach in Tim Miles and five Power 5 transfers. Cal State Fullerton fell 84-77 at Santa Clara on Tuesday. Fullerton probably wins but this spread is a few points too high. The Titans are 3-7 ATS in their past 10 games as favorites. |
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11-11-21 | Ravens -7.5 v. Dolphins | 10-22 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Once again, Jacoby Brissett filled in for peanut brittle Tua Tagovailoa, who sat the game out with a broken finger. Interestingly, 11 of the 16 AFC teams own winning records after nine weeks of the season while just one team in this matchup checks that box. Lamar Jackson became the first NFL quarterback this season to win three games after trailing by double-digits, digging the Ravens out of a 17-3, second-quarter hole with both his arm (266 yards, three touchdowns) and his legs (120 yards on 21 carries). The bottom line is Miami is 0-3 ATS in its last three games when coming off a win, and 1-4 SUATS on Thursdays. Next to Baltimore’s 8-0 ATS record in this series, 7-1 ATS mark in its last eight games versus the AFC East, and 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS on Thursdays. |
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11-11-21 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh -6.5 | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A check of the ATS archives reveals a lot of Carolina blue goose eggs: 0-5 ATS Weekdays, 0-5 ATS after Wake Forest, and 0-5 ATS before a non-conference home game. Remember, teams who knock off a 7-0 or greater opponent are just 40-60-3 ATS when on the road the next game, including 1-9 ATS the past two seasons. And when this year’s Tar Heels don’t win, they don’t cover, as all four of their losses were both SU and ATS. We fully expect another shootout tonight between Pitt QB Kenny Pickett and UNC QB Sam Howell, but with both of Pitt’s previous SU losses taking place at Heinz Field, the Panthers have extra incentive to make amends with a strong performance here. With Pittsburgh boasting a 6-1 ATS log in Weekday games, we're siding with the Panthers. |
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11-11-21 | Raptors v. 76ers -3.5 | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No Joel Embiid again for the Sixers, but the Raptors aren't really built to take advantage of that in the paint -- plus, they are without Pascal Siakam and Khem Birch. The Sixers will get back second-leading scorer Tobias Harris from COVID protocols and are likely to get back Seth Curry from a one-game injury absence. That should be enough to cover against a Raptors team playing the second of a B2B and on a three-game skid. |
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11-11-21 | Merrimack -3 v. NJIT | 61-54 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Look, I don't know much about NJIT -- their own laughable website doesn't even have a media guide or preview of the team this season. I do know the Highlanders were 7-12 last year and their best player, Zach Cooks, transferred to Hofstra. All the models are saying that NJIT is better than Merrimack, but I don't agree with what I do know. The Warriors reached the NEC title game last year and are one of only five teams in the country to return 99 percent of its point production from a season ago. Merrimack also has a game under its belt, beating something called Emerson (Ralph Waldo? Fittipaldi?) College on Tuesday. KenPom also ranks Merrimack quite a bit higher. |
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11-11-21 | George Washington +18.5 v. Maryland | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Colonials won their first game despite a second-half collapse. They showed a lot of potential, especially on defense. They held the Red Flash to 38 percent shooting from the field. The Colonials' biggest issues were that they allowed 13 offensive rebounds and sent the Red Flash to the line 33 times. The Terrapins were a terrible free-throw shooting team last season. In their first game, they shot just 15 of 23 on free throws. George Washington's stingy defense should allow the Colonials to stay within the number. |
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11-11-21 | Vermont +6 v. Northern Iowa | 71-57 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units KenPom ranks Vermont at 106 nationally and Northern Iowa 128. The Catamounts are annual contenders in the America East Conference -- they won their fifth straight regular-season title last year -- and had two players named to the preseason all-conference team in reigning America East Player of the Year Ryan Davis and Ben Shungu. I can't find a model that has UNI winning by more than four -- SportsLine's has it with a four-point margin. ESPN's power rankings have this as essentially a pick'em. Sagarin has UNI by 3.5 points. |
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11-10-21 | Pacific v. Northern Colorado | 65-67 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It concerns me a bit that this spread dropped from an open of Pacific -3.5 to a pick'em ... I can't find any relevant injury news, etc., that might have led to that move. If this game were at Northern Colorado, I'd probably stay away as the Bears of the Big Sky bring back all five starters. However, it's in Hawaii and I think Pacific of the WCC should win in the school head coaching debut of Leonard Perry. Former coach Damon Stoudamire left this offseason to join the Celtics. Pacific brings back three key players from last year's squad and welcomes two good transfers in Luke Avdalovic and Alphonso Anderson, who was last year's Mountain West Sixth Man of the Year. KenPom ranks Pacific as the No. 125 team in the nation and Northern Colorado at 200, so I'd be stupid not to take a pick'em, right? |
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11-10-21 | Raptors +3 v. Celtics | 88-104 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics are 0-3 ATS at home and will have to play without Jaylen Brown (hamstring), who will miss his second straight game. Meanwhile, the Raptors are 4-0 ATS on the road. They were underdogs in each contest, yet they won each game outright. Add in Pascal Siakam returning and they have a favorable chance of winning this game as well. |
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11-10-21 | Bucks v. Knicks -4 | 112-100 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a tough spot for the Bucks, who have injury issues and will be playing the second game of a back-to-back set. Jrue Holiday has battled an ankle injury that previously forced him to miss five straight games, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him sit this out. This would be his third game in the last four days. The Knicks could be thin at center with Mitchell Robinson (hip) and Nerlens Noel (knee) listed as questionable. But with a deeper overall roster and home-court advantage, take them to cover. |
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11-09-21 | Blazers v. Clippers -3 | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Blazers have been awful on the road this season. Not only have they lost all four games, three of them came by at least 10 points. Included is a 30-point loss to the Clippers in Los Angeles. This game should be closer, but I still like the Clippers to cover this small number. |
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11-09-21 | Kentucky v. Duke -2.5 | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Obviously it's a challenge handicapping a college basketball team's first game of the season -- this is part of the Champions Classic at Madison Square Garden -- and both these programs hugely underachieved last season. Duke does bring three starters back and should have the best player on the floor in freshman Paolo Banchero, very possibly the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft. UK might be without one key transfer in Iowa's CJ Fredrick, a great three-point shooter. Then there's the Mike Krzyzewski factor. You think his players don't want to win Coach K's final-ever season opener? Tuesday marks Coach K's 1,400th game as Duke's head coach. The Blue Devils are 39-2 in season openers under Krzyzewski, including winning 21 straight. Welcome back college hoops! |
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11-09-21 | Coppin State +31.5 v. Loyola-Chicago | 45-103 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This spread seems quite high considering it will be a bit of a transition for Loyola early in the season after losing excellent coach Porter Moser to Oklahoma, although his former assistant Drew Valentine takes over. Ramblers star Cameron Krutwig is now playing in Belgium. Coppin State is a solid MEAC program that hung within 10 at Duke last year and tied for the MEAC regular-season title. I'd think the Eagles can manage to only lose by 30. |
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11-09-21 | Jackson State +27.5 v. Illinois | 47-71 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Needless to say, who wins this game isn't in question but Jackson State was a good SWAC team last year and was picked to finish third in the league this season. The Illini probably will sleepwalk a bit through this one with Big Ten Preseason Player of the Year Kofi Cockburn out due to suspension and senior guard Trent Frazier in question with a knee injury. The Tigers were 5-1 ATS in their final six road games last year. They can stay within 26 or so. |
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11-09-21 | Miami-OH v. Georgia Tech -9 | 72-69 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Yellow Jackets lost ACC Player of the Year Moses Wright and ACC Defensive Player of the Year Jose Alvarado, which has created holes to fill but also some value. Senior Michael Devoe (15.0 ppg) has unlimited range and will lead this team after winning ACC Tournament MVP honors. Former USC transfer Jordan Usher is a 6-7 defensive whiz. Deebo Coleman and Miles Kelly are top-100 recruits, evidence that Josh Pastner is attracting better talent. The RedHawks return everyone from a squad that went 9-8 in the MAC. They rely on their smallish backcourt for scoring, but could struggle versus Tech's length. |
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11-09-21 | Belmont -3.5 v. Ohio | 80-92 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The tough Ohio Valley Conference competition wore Belmont down last season. The Bruins failed to cover their last five games and missed the NCAA Tournament. But all those starters are back from the team that dominated the regular season. Ohio had some March Madness success but lost its best player to the NBA. Take Belmont to cover. |
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11-09-21 | Eastern Michigan +24.5 v. Indiana | 62-68 | Win | 100 | 3 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Thanks to Trayce Jackson-Davis, Mike Woodson's first season at Indiana may end in an NCAA Tournament berth. But this is too many points, even against a lower-tier MAC team. Noah Farrakhan, a highly touted recruit who transferred from East Carolina, will be the key for new coach Stan Heath. He erupted for 27 points in a 74-69 exhibition road win over Oakland. He'll beat defenders off the dribble and set up his teammates. Take the points. |
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11-08-21 | Hawks v. Warriors -3.5 | 113-127 | Win | 102 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s been a rough start to the season for the Hawks, who have lost five of their last six games. Four of those losses came on the road and all five came by at least four points. In fact, three of those came by at least 11 points. The Warriors are a sparkling 8-1 with a league high +13.7 point differential. Add in home-court advantage, and the Warriors have a favorable chance of covering. |
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11-08-21 | Bears +7 v. Steelers | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Tomlin has been unable to get his troops to fully focus under the Monday Night lights where they are 1-4 ATS at home under his lead in non-division contests, including 0-3 ATS when coming off a win. For Chicago, it was another week of frustration, as they enter this contest on a 0-3 SUATS and ITS (In The Stats) slide. Despite failed fourth-quarter drives, QB Justin Fields still had a solid performance in a losing cause against San Francisco last week, going 19-of-27 for 175 yards, one touchdown and the pick. He also scrambled 10 times for 103 rushing yards and another score. However, Chicago brings a 9-1 SU and 7-2-1 ATS ledger in games against the AFC North, including 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS with a losing record into this battle. |
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11-08-21 | Knicks v. 76ers | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The 76ers have decided to rest Joel Embiid and are still missing Tobias Harris (COVID-19). They defeated Portland in the only other game Embiid has missed this season, which also was a contest in which Harris sat. However, with the Knicks looking to bounce back from Sunday's disappointing loss to Cleveland, expect them to take advantage of Philadelphia's depth issues. |
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11-07-21 | Titans +8 v. Rams | 28-16 | Win | 100 | 99 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Titans are 5-0 ATS as a dog versus .800 or greater opponents, as well as 5-0-1 ATS in this series. For the Rams, sometimes NFL scores can be misleading. This is one of those instances. The Rams dominated the Houston game from start to finish, eventually leading 38-0 before allowing the Texans 22 unanswered points in junk time. However, they will need to exert more of themselves against this red-hot juggernaut today. With a Monday night fight up next against division rival San Francisco, and just 2-8 ATS before Monday nighters, look for the Rams to fall tonight. Consider that NFL Sunday Night dogs of more than 7 points are 18-4 ATS when facing a non-division foe coming off a win of more than 14 points. |
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11-07-21 | Cavs +7.5 v. Knicks | 126-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Cavaliers enter this matchup having won three straight. In each of those games, they were underdogs by at least five points. Despite those outright wins, they again find themselves as heavy underdogs. Winning this game will be difficult for Cleveland, but give me the points. |
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11-07-21 | Nets v. Raptors +3.5 | 116-103 | Loss | -107 | 3 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Toronto will see the season debut of arguably its best player in forward Pascal Siakam, a good defender who can give Kevin Durant some trouble -- well as much trouble as is possible giving Durant. With Siakam and stud rookie Scottie Barnes, the Raptors might be pretty dang good. I'll happily take the points here. The Nets are 1-4 ATS in their past five on the road. |
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11-07-21 | Broncos +10 v. Cowboys | Top | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 93 h 8 m | Show |
Rating: 4 UnitInter-Conference Play of the Day For what it’s worth, the most lucrative situation in the NFL this year has been that of road dogs coming off a win of 6 or more points. That’s because these dogs are 12-6 SU and 15-3 ATS season to date. Sure, the resurgent Cowboys are 3-0 ATS at home this year, but they’re still dragging a 3-10 ATS log as non-division home favorites of 10 or fewer points. Will Prescott make it back? Or will Rush be asked to save the day again? We’re ambivalent since we’re backing a Broncos team that’s gone 5-0 ATS as non-division road dogs of 5 or more points. Consider that Denver QB Teddy Bridgewater is 23-5 ATS away as an NFL starter, including 10-0 ATS versus winning opponents. |
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11-07-21 | Patriots v. Panthers +3.5 | Top | 24-6 | Loss | -106 | 92 h 46 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week Although Panthers head coach Matt Rhule has been taking a lot of heat this year, he’s still 41-21 ATS as a dog in his CFB and NFL careers, plus he’s 4-1 ATS as a dog with the Panthers against foes coming off consecutive wins. The Pats are just 1-4 ITS (In The Stats) in their last five games, so with or without Darnold behind center, we can’t wait to capitalize on the fact that Pats head coach Bill Belichick is 9-12 SUATS away in games when coming off a SU underdog win, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS as a favorite. |
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11-07-21 | Falcons +6.5 v. Saints | Top | 27-25 | Win | 100 | 27 h 19 m | Show |
Rating: 6 Unit Upset of the Year Teams who upset the defending Super Bowl champion as a dog are just 26-36 SU and 24-37-1 ATS versus division foes the following game, including 19-36 SUATS when not favored by 7 or more points. So now the Saints are 5-2 and hoping to have Winston back and healthy to face Brady and the Bucs when it really counts – in January. In addition, the visiting team is 4-2 SUATS of late in this series. Toss in the “beat the Super Bowl champ” letdown factor, as teams in division game who upset the defending champs are just 15-25 SU and13-27 ATS since 1990. The clincher: playing on any .400 or greater NFL division dog playing with triple revenge is 12-0 ATS since 1980. . |
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11-06-21 | UTSA v. UTEP +12 | Top | 44-23 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit CFB Upset of the Day UTEP battled back from a 28-10 4Q deficit to fall, 28-25, at Florida Atlantic last week, but at 6-2 this season, the Miners will be bowling for the fi rst time since 2014. Why, you ask? Because they are 7-1 ITS (In The Stats), winning the stats by +100 YPG, and are 4-2 ATS as double-digit pups over the past two seasons. Will another double-digit dog pull an upset this week? A total of 34 FBS games have fallen into that category this season and this has a strong possibility of being another. Consider as well that playing against any 7-0 or greater college football dog road favorite coming off a week of rest if they are facing a .444 or greater opponent that is not coming off a win of 7 or more points is 12-0 ATS since 1980. |
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11-06-21 | Celtics v. Mavs -3 | 104-107 | Push | 0 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The big news surrounding the Celtics is that Jaylen Brown (hamstring) will miss this game. That’s a huge loss given his averages of 25.6 points, 6.1 rebounds and 2.5 assists. Meanwhile, the Mavericks could get back Kristaps Porzingis (back), who practiced Friday. I think Porzingis plays and the Celtics will have a hard time scoring enough to keep this game close on the road. |
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11-06-21 | 76ers v. Bulls -3.5 | 114-105 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bulls haven’t played since Wednesday, against these same Sixers. That game was played in Philadelphia. The Bulls were down big early and tried to mount a comeback in the second half, but they ultimately lost by five. The big news surrounding the Sixers is their outbreak of COVID-19. Tobias Harris was first to test positive and now Matisse Thybulle was placed inside the health and safety protocols Friday. His defense against Zach LaVine was big in the last game, so with him out and this game being played in Chicago, I’ll roll with the Bulls to win in decisive fashion. |
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11-06-21 | Michigan State v. Purdue +3 | Top | 29-40 | Win | 100 | 71 h 15 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Big-10 Game of the Week The 5-3 Boilermakers are 6-2 ITS (In The Stats) this season, winning the stats by an average of 72 net YPG. They beat a Top 10-ranked Iowa team three weeks ago, and are looking to do the same here today. Consider this: the Spartans are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in post-Michigan meetings in which they managed to score 30 or more points, including 0-4 ATS in games in which MSU allows more than 20 PPG. They are also 1-5 SUATS after taking on UM in games in which they coughed up 30-plus points. Can you spell L-E-T-D-O-W-N? Also consider that playing against any college football road favorite who won SU as an underdog against a 5-0 or better opponent in its last game is o 4-20 ATS in this role from Game Seven out. And if this is a conference game, they drop to 3-18 ATS. |
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11-06-21 | California -11.5 v. Arizona | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -108 | 53 h 29 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit PAC-12 Mismatch On the heels of back-to-back wins, call this a crucial game for the 3-5 |
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11-06-21 | Wake Forest +2.5 v. North Carolina | 55-58 | Loss | -103 | 68 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units North Carloina takes the field here with a 22-38 ATS mark versus undefeated opponents, including 0-7 SUATS after allowing 35 or more points in his team’s previous game. The inconsistent Heels have won back-to-back games just once this year, but to their credit, they have not lost two consecutive games, either. That starts today as you consider that Head coach Dave Clawson is 24-12 ATS against conference foes without a winning record, including 5-0 ATS when his team sports a .800 or greater win percentage. |
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11-06-21 | SMU v. Memphis +5.5 | Top | 25-28 | Win | 100 | 68 h 41 m | Show |
Rating: 5 UnitCFB Game of the Week The 44-37 defeat was the first loss of the season for SMU, and Dykes now runs into another prolific passing attack in Memphis, ranked 18th in the nation (296 YPG). He is also 4-11 ATS as conference road chalk, including 0-4 ATS versus greater than .333 opponents. Meanwhile, Memphis had covered six straight times in this series until getting nipped last season, 30-27, on a field goal at the final gun. That sets up a conference revenge situation for the Tigers, a role in which they are 4-1 ATS at home. In addition, at 4-4 on the season, Ryan Silverfield’s squad is battling to earn a bowl bid for the eighth year in a row. A win today will help, and so does the fact that SMU is 2-9 ATS as a conference road favorite of 17 or fewer points, including 0-4 ATS from Game Nine out. Better yet, playing against any CFB favorite who started the season 7-0 or better, coming off its initial loss (as a favorite) in which they scored 28 or more points if they are facing a conference opponent is 10-1 ATS since 1980. |
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11-05-21 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Ducks | 1-3 | Loss | -165 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I really had no interest in this game but now will take a shot on the winless Coyotes on the puckline at -170, which is the same price as an Anaheim moneyline win. The Yotes have been competitive of late and netminder Karel Vejmelka has a 1.69 GAA and .951 save percentage through his last three starts. He gets no offensive help. Ducks No. 1 goaltender John Gibson has just been ruled out and backup Anthony Stolarz is 0-2-1 with a 3.63 GAA. I smell upset win here but will take the +1.5. If Arizona were home, I would take it outright. |
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11-05-21 | Clippers -2 v. Wolves | 104-84 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These teams just played in Minnesota on Wednesday and the Clippers won by 11 points. D’Angelo Russell (ankle) did not play and won’t take the floor Friday, either. As good as Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards have been, the loss of Russell puts the Timberwolves’ offense in a tough spot. Take the Clippers to cover. |
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11-05-21 | Grizzlies +2 v. Wizards | 87-115 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After a 5-1 start to the season, the Wizards have lost back-to-back games. First, they fell to the Hawks by seven points on the road. Then, they lost by nine points to the Raptors at home. Those were two tough matchups and Friday brings another one against the Grizzlies. They are 6-2 ATS, including 4-1 ATS as an underdog. They won three of those games, outright. With Ja Morant rolling, I like them to continue their success as underdogs. |
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11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts -10 | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Colts are in must-win mode as they enter a two-game stretch of games against the lowly Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars. Indianapolis lost 34-31 in overtime to the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. Quarterback Carson Wentz threw one interception with less than two minutes left in regulation and another in overtime. The Jets come into this one off a big win but that euphoria may be short-lived, as they arrive in Indianapolis with an 0-3 ATS mark in Thursday action, and a 1-7 SUATS failure when coming off a win as a 7-point or larger dog. The Colts counter with a 14-4-1 ATS effort on Thursdays, and a near-perfect 5-0-1 ATS mark after tangling with the Titans. |
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11-04-21 | Celtics v. Heat -6.5 | 95-78 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Heat look like they are on a mission this season. They are 6-1, with their only loss coming on the road to the Pacers in their second game. At home, they are 3-0 with all three wins coming by at least 15 points. The Celtics will be playing the second game of a back-to-back set and have been underwhelming out the gate, posting a 3-5 record. This will also be their third game in the last four days, two of which will be on the road. Despite this large number, I still like the Heat to cover Thursday. |
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11-03-21 | Blue Jackets +1.5 v. Avalanche | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 26 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Colorado will be for sure without top winger Mikko Rantanen and stellar young defenseman Cale Makar, plus another key forward, Andre Burakovsky, is in question. Even more important, shaky backup Jonas Johansson already has been named the starter in net. Not ready to back Columbus at +175 to win outright on the road, although I thought about it, so we'll take the Jackets at -130 on the puckline. |
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11-03-21 | Blazers v. Cavs +5.5 | 104-107 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Trail Blazers are only going to go as far as Damian Lillard can carry them. He’s only shot 34.9 percent from the field this season, including 23.1 percent from behind the arc. That’s played a big role in their 3-4 start. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers have been more competitive than last season, using an improved defense to go 5-3 ATS. After finally returning home from a long road trip, look for the Cavaliers to put up a good fight. If Lillard remains cold, they could even win outright. |
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11-03-21 | Bulls +2 v. 76ers | 98-103 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bulls mounted a furious comeback in their last game against the Celtics, erasing a 19-point deficit in the second half to win by 14. Not only do they have a 6-1 record this season, but they are also 6-1 ATS. Although the Sixers are expected to get Joel Embiid back for this game, Tobias Harris (health and safety protocols) and Ben Simmons will remain out. This is a favorable opportunity for the Bulls to remain hot. |
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11-02-21 | Pelicans +11.5 v. Suns | 100-112 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units At 1-6, the Pelicans have had issues with players being in and out of the lineup. Uncertainty lingers around several of them, including Devonte' Graham, Brandon Ingram and Garrett Temple. Yet, New Orleans has kept games close as it has lost each of its three games by fewer than seven points. Take the value here on the double digits with the Pelicans. |
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11-02-21 | Kings v. Jazz -9 | 113-119 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Jazz will be facing the Kings for the second time this season. In their prior matchup on Oct. 22, Utah outscored Sacramento by 15 points in the second half to win 110-101 on the road. Expect the Jazz to put on an even better performance at home and improve to 6-1. |
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11-02-21 | Heat -2 v. Mavs | 125-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Miami's Bam Adebayo (knee) and Dallas' Kristaps Porzingis (back) are listed as questionable, so both teams could be without a key frontcourt member. Porzingis has missed three straight games and the Mavericks play again Wednesday, so there might be a better chance that he sits out. Meanwhile, Adebayo was a full participant in Monday’s practice. Even with him sidelined for their last game, the Heat smoked Memphis by 26 points on the road. Not only are they 5-1, but all five of their victories have come by at least 13 points. I’ll take Miami to cover this small number. |
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11-02-21 | Bucks v. Pistons +4.5 | 117-89 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pistons aren't very good, but the Bucks are down three starters, including Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday, while Detroit looks healthy -- rookie No. 1 overall pick Cade Cunningham will play. Milwaukee enters on a three-game skid and while the Greek Freak apparently will play, he's not 100 percent, either. Dating to last season the Bucks are 1-7 ATS in their past eight vs. teams with a losing record. |
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11-01-21 | Giants +10.5 v. Chiefs | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Chiefs give up an NFL-high 6.6 yards per play. Even though we can expect a bounceback from the K.C. offense -- it helps that Giants safety Jabrill Peppers is out -- the Chiefs' defense will leave the backdoor open. New York has already covered at Washington and New Orleans (outright win). The Giants got blown out at Dallas but that was a game in which Daniel Jones got knocked out early. Back New York to improve to 23-7 in its last 30 as a road dog. |
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11-01-21 | Magic v. Wolves -8.5 | 115-97 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Timberwolves won at Milwaukee last week and were dominating Denver at home three days later before falling apart in the fourth quarter. Karl-Anthony Towns did not score in the fourth, and that game is a huge learning lesson for a team that has a ton of talent. Orlando, we have a problem! |
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11-01-21 | Blazers +2 v. 76ers | 103-113 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units There are rumors out that that Sixers star Joel Embiid will sit this one out simply for rest. He is quite banged up. Thus, we'll take a shot that it's true as I think Portland could now win outright since Ben Simmons still isn't around for Philadelphia, either. |
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11-01-21 | Cavs v. Hornets -5 | 113-110 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s been a grueling road trip for the Cavaliers, who will be playing their fifth straight game away from Cleveland. They won the first two contests of the trek but have dropped each of the last two by at least nine points. The Hornets finally are at full strength with Terry Rozier back. He’s only played in two games this season, one of which was an 11-point win at Cleveland. To complicate matters for the Cavaliers, Kevin Love (health and safety protocols) will be out for this rematch. |
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11-01-21 | Spurs +3 v. Pacers | 118-131 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Spurs are 3-0 against the spread on the road, and Indiana is dealing with some significant injuries. Malcolm Brogdon (hamstring) was considered questionable in today's first injury and has only rested for one game. Caris LeVert (back) is questionable after logging 16 minutes in his season debut. If both players are ruled out or at least one is limited, the Pacers' backcourt will be at a disadvantage. I'm rolling with the Spurs team that beat the shorthanded Bucks by nine points over the weekend as the road team. |
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10-31-21 | Cowboys v. Vikings +2.5 | 20-16 | Loss | -114 | 102 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating; 3 Units Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer is still frothing following last season’s 31-28 home loss to Dallas as 7-point chalk, a loss to backup QB Andy Dalton that snapped a 3-game Vikings win streak, as well as a 4-game Dallas losing skid. In the end it eventually cost the 7-9 Vikings a losing season. Now back at the scene of the crime, Minny will look to improve on its 10-2 ATS series ledger, while Zimmer looks to pad his 16-3-1 ATS career mark at home against .500 or greater non-division foes. The Boys’ 11-17 SU and 9-19 ATS record against NFC North foes since 2009 adds another log to the fire. In addition, consider that 5-1 NFL teams in Game Seven, coming off five wins in a row, are 3-13 SU and 4-12 ATS since 1980 if not favored by more than 3 points, including 0-6 SUATS versus sub .600 opponents. |
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10-31-21 | Blazers v. Hornets +1.5 | 113-125 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Trail Blazers are off to a 3-2 start with all three wins coming at home. They’ve only played one road game, which they lost by 30 points to the Clippers. The Hornets should get Terry Rozier (ankle) back for this game with him being listed as probable. That would provide a significant boost for their offense. Add in stellar play from LaMelo Ball and with Miles Bridges averaging 25.5 points per game, and I think the Hornets take care of business on their home floor. |