Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-27-21 | Marshall v. Indiana -10.5 | 79-90 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Indiana is 5-0 and has covered every double digit spread it has seen since letting Eastern Michigan hang around to open the season. EMU was concerning, but Indiana seems to have woken up since and I think the Hoosiers keep rolling. Marshall has struggled against teams much worse than this. The model has this as a 14-point spread in favor of Indiana, so I'm getting my coveted three-point edge. Lay the points with the Hoosiers. |
|||||||
11-27-21 | Northeastern +2.5 v. Harvard | 57-77 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I feel like the wrong team is favored. My model makes this game a pick 'em, but Harvard lost to Sienna and barely covered against Albany so I am a bit confused on why the Crimson are favored. This is a big Boston-area rivalry game; I think Northeastern shows up, and the model agrees. Grab the points in what should be a close one. |
|||||||
11-27-21 | Penn State -1 v. Michigan State | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 39 m | Show |
Rating 5 UnitsBig-10 Game of the Week Our numbers for this game clearly put the Spartans at a disadvantage, including a 0-5 ATS mark after playing Ohio State, and a 0-4 home record against the number when they have conference revenge. On the flip side, regardless of the outcome of this game, neither team can improve or regress in the standings of the Big Ten East Division when the 7-4 / 4-4 Lions invade East Lansing to take on the 9-2 / 6-2 Spartans. With that being the case, you know it’s a much more important result for PSU as far as bowl positioning is concerned. The Nittany Lions are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in LRGs, as well as 4-1 ATS away versus conference revenge. PSU’s 26thranked defense (335 YPG) is also leagues better than MSU’s 119th rated stop-unit (463 YPG)... and therein lies your edge. Consider as well that Penn State head coach James Franklin is 30-4 SU and 27-7 ATS in games when coming off a win versus an opponent coming off a loss, including 14-2 SU and 15-1 ATS versus greater-than .400 foes. |
|||||||
11-27-21 | Ohio State -7.5 v. Michigan | 27-42 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units OSU HC Day is 33-3 SU and 21-14-1 ATS in all games, including 24-0 SU and 16-8 ATS versus foes with at least one loss on the season, as well as 12-0 SU and 8-3-1 ATS away. As for today’s all-the-marbles matchup, Ohio State is 7-1 ATS of late as road chalk of 8 or fewer points (check line), while Michigan owns a dreadful 0-8-1 ATS mark as a conference home dog of 10 or less points. We could go on, but with Harbaugh just 1-13 SU and 3-11 ATS as a dog against .900 or greater opponents, Michigan will be little more than a speed bump at the Big House, as the Buckeyes barrel towards the Big Ten title game, and a spot in the CFB Playoff. |
|||||||
11-27-21 | Wake Forest v. Boston College +5.5 | Top | 41-10 | Loss | -111 | 21 h 11 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Upset of the Week Wake has limped to the barn at the end of the season many times, 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS, and a frightening 0-5 SUATS versus teams coming off a SUATS loss. The Demon Deacons are also 3-12 ATS in the back half of back-to-back conference roadies. Meanwhile the Boston Brawlers are 5-0 ATS as conference road dogs of 4 or more, 15-3 ATS versus conference opponents they defeated in a most recent meeting, as well as 8-3 ATS vs .800 or greater vs. conference opponents. They have thrived since QB Phil Jurevic returned. Consider that playing on any .500 or greater college football conference home dog coming off one loss-exact if they lost SU as a favorite from Game Seven out if they allow 24.5 or fewer PPG and they average more than 120 rushing yards per game if they are facing an .800 or greater opponent that allows 17.5 or more PPG who won fewer than 12 games last season is 15-0 ATS since 1980. Wake Forest needs a M-U-S-T W-I-N, but we see U-P-S-E-T instead. |
|||||||
11-26-21 | Duke v. Gonzaga -7.5 | 84-81 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Yes, Duke is a very good team, but no team is on Gonzaga's level. The Bulldogs proved that with their 20-point beatdown of UCLA. According to KenPom, the Bulldogs rank first in adjusted offensive efficiency and seventh in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Blue Devils have looked impressive but they haven’t faced a good opponent since their first game. This spread is too small. |
|||||||
11-26-21 | Blazers v. Warriors -6.5 | 103-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Trail Blazers are a dreadful 1-8 ATS on the road, while the Warriors are 8-2-1 ATS at home. It looked like the Warriors were going to suffer a disappointing loss at home to the shorthanded Sixers in their home game Monday but stormed back in the second half to eventually win by 20 points. They now have a +13.5 point differential, which is the best in the NBA. Look for them to keep rolling at home. |
|||||||
11-26-21 | Oregon State +5 v. Wake Forest | 77-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oregon State is 0-5 against the spread and Wake Forest is undefeated this season, but my model has Oregon State as a one-point favorite. Wake Forest has not had a very difficult schedule, and Oregon State might be able to keep this closer than expected, if not win outright. This is definitely a bit of a contrarian play, but if you play systemically you need to trust it. |
|||||||
11-26-21 | Bucks -2.5 v. Nuggets | 120-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It's been a rough stretch for the Nuggets, who have lost five straight games. Three of those games came with Nikola Jokic (wrist) out, and he might not be back for this game, either, since he’s listed as questionable. Even if Jokic is able to return, the Nuggets will still be without Michael Porter Jr. (back), leaving them without one of their best scoring options. The Bucks are 4-1 ATS as road favorites and have a favorable opportunity to cover this small number. |
|||||||
11-26-21 | Washington State v. Washington +1 | 40-13 | Loss | -108 | 32 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The oddsmakers have installed Washington State as the favorite in this game, despite the fact they are 1-7 ATS as a favorite in this series, as well as 3-13 SU in their last sixteen games at Husky Stadium. At 4-7, the only place Washington is going is home after this contest, but there is no better incentive for a bitter rival than to dress up as the underdog at home – and put a pin in the balloon of its hated rival. Meanwhile, UDub sports the nation’s No. 20 overall defense, one that is 69 YPG superior than its adversary, and the Huskies are 6-1 SUATS as home dogs of fewer than 2.5 points. Yes, WSU had gone 3-1 ATS away this year when seeking revenge, but that number is trumped by Washington’s red-hot 6-0 SUATS series run. |
|||||||
11-26-21 | Morehead State v. Arkansas State | 75-51 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a true home game for Arkansas State and not a neutral site tournament. The Red Wolves (soon to be possibly also be the Washington Football Team's nickname) are projected to win by seven via the SportsLine Projection Model and by 4.5 via ESPN BPI. A-State returns all five starters, 97.1 percent of minutes, 97.9 percent of scoring and 96.6 percent of rebounds from last season. |
|||||||
11-26-21 | Iona +4 v. Belmont | 65-72 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Rick Pitino's Iona team is coming off an upset win over Alabama in which the Gaels made just 4-of-21 3-pointers. The Gaels have a balanced attack, led by forward Nelly Junior Joseph, who averages 16.3 points and 7.8 rebounds. Four starters average double figures in points. In a game where the spread is just 3.5 points, free throw shooting could prove to be crucial, and Iona ranks third in free throw attempts while Belmont checks in at No. 222. Grab the points with the hot Iona team. |
|||||||
11-26-21 | Xavier v. Virginia Tech -4.5 | 59-58 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Folks, this is why I sit home all day monitoring numerous news feeds -- to get you guys the immediate information (and win some bets myself). Thankfully, I have an understanding wife! We crushed fading Georgia Tech earlier today because they were hit hard by the flu. Well, Xavier just ruled out starters Dieonte Miles and Colby Jones with fellow key players Jerome Hunter and Adam Kunkel as game-time decisions vs. the Hokies. The Musketeers are dealing with a flu bug, too. |
|||||||
11-26-21 | South Alabama v. Hawaii +4 | 72-69 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Jaguars have had only three games against Division I teams and their offense has struggled. They have averaged just 64.3 PPG in those games. The Rainbow Warriors have a very explosive offense as they are averaging 84 PPG. All five of their starters are averaging double-digit points. Only two Jaguars are doing that. Hawaii is likely the better team so taking any points here is a good deal. |
|||||||
11-26-21 | Colorado +24 v. Utah | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We like fading teams off record-setting performances, and with the Pac-12 title game on deck for Utah, we figure head coach Kyle Whittingham will go vanilla here before tangling with Oregon, Oregon State or Washington State. Helping Colorado’s chances is the Utes’ mediocre 3-8 ATS effort in their last eleven games against .333 or less conference opponents. Conflicting trends show the Buffs are 0-5 ATS in recent series results, but 4-1 ATS as dogs of more than 14 points in the final game of the season. In addition, coach Dorrell is 23-12 ATS when taking points, including 11-3 ATS against foes coming off a double-digit win. The bottom line is Utah will be content with a ‘W’ while the Buffaloes have plenty of room to roam inside the 24-point impost |
|||||||
11-26-21 | Coastal Carolina v. South Alabama +15.5 | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 29 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Last year at this time the Chanticleers were undefeated and clinched a perfect regular season with a road win-no-cover at Troy, but they were denied an opportunity to win a Sun Belt title game when it was postponed due to COVID. This year, they take a 9-2 ledger into Mobile as they will once again be spectators for the conference title bout. With it, they may find it difficult getting up for an opponent that is riding an 0-3 SUATS streak. There will be no shortage of incentive for the 5-6 Jags, though, as they’re looking to pick up a win to become bowl-eligible, after going 9-26 SU the previous three seasons. A 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS record in lined home gams since joining the FBS, including three SU underdog wins the last four years, catches our fancy. With CCU still warm and fuzzy from sending the seniors off in Conway last week, we’ll back a starving dog in South Alabama that stands a perfect 6-0 ATS of late as a home dog of 7 or more points. |
|||||||
11-26-21 | Cincinnati v. East Carolina +14 | 35-13 | Loss | -102 | 28 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While the Pirates are 2-10 ATS versus undefeated conference opponents, they |
|||||||
11-26-21 | Utah State -15 v. New Mexico | 35-10 | Win | 100 | 26 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New Mexico will be scoreboard watching, only the Lobos will be looking at the time remaining in this game, so they can finally call an end to a miserable 3-9 season. The campaign started with some degree of promise at 2-0, but those wins came against Houston Baptist and New Mexico state, and a step up in class resulted in a 1-8 SU slide. Even worse, if we throw out the Houston Baptist game, UNM has torched the money big-time this year, going 1-9 ATS. Meanwhile, Utah State should be mad as hell after getting ambushed by the Wyoming Cowboys last week, losing 44-17 as 6-point chalk, and the Aggies have cashed four straight tickets in the series. And with USU head coach Blake Anderson now 23-3 SU and 18-8 ATS as a double-digit favorite, the likelihood of an upset is next to nil |
|||||||
11-26-21 | SE Missouri State v. Incarnate Word +7 | 79-76 | Win | 100 | 1 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is too big of a spread for the Incarnate Word Thanksgiving Invitational game. This is a spot for Incarnate to show up in its own tournament. My model makes the Cardinals only three-point underdogs, so we are getting nearly a four-point edge. Grab the points. |
|||||||
11-26-21 | Kansas State +3 v. Texas | 17-22 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Kansas State is 5-1 ATS in this series of late when coming off a SUATS loss, they’re also an impressive 6-0-1 ATS as road favorites or road dogs of 3 or less points. Head coach Chris Klieman does not suffer SUATS losses lightly, going 6-1 ATS in his last seven tries in that role. Coach K also boasts an 11-3 SU and 10-2 ATS mark versus .500 or fewer foes, including 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS the last eight. And we can’t forget last year’s horrific 69-31 loss to Texas, especially with the Horns now 3-8 ATS at home versus a revenging conference opponent. We can almost hear the “Bring Back Herman” chants as you read this. Consider that college Football teams on a 6-game-exact losing streak are 3-22 SU and 8-15 ATS at home in their final game of the regular season, including 0-5 ATS as either a favorite or a dog of fewer than 3 points. |
|||||||
11-26-21 | Miami-FL -1 v. North Texas | 69-63 | Win | 100 | 2 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Got destroyed on college hoops, I'll admit it. Still firmly believe I should have won two of the three and one was a bad beat of a lifetime. Oh well, we move on. This game is in Orlando and KenPom ranks Miami at 102 and North Texas 114. The last three games, Miami started four sixth-year players and a third-year player, owning a combined 27 seasons of experience. This early in the season, I'll take experience like that. |
|||||||
11-25-21 | Louisville v. Mississippi State -1 | 72-58 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units CBS Sports Network has this game from the Bahamas. KenPom ranks unbeaten Mississippi State six spots ahead of Louisville nationally. The Bulldogs have trounced their first four opponents but this will be an obvious step up in competition. Louisville has a home loss to Furman on its resume and comes off a not-impressive close home win over Detroit. MSU leads the SEC in field goal percentage (52.0) and three-point field goal percentage (45.7) and has four impact transfers. Louisville is 1-7 ATS in its past eight as a dog. I believe this spread should be a few points higher. |
|||||||
11-25-21 | Bills v. Saints +6 | 31-6 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Siemian owns an 88.9 QB Rating in his four starts this season, throwing 8 TDs and 2 INTs. He is also 9-5 SU and 8-5-1 ATS in his NFL home starts, including 4-0 SUATS when his team is coming off a loss of more than 3 points. More important, the Saints are 5-0 ATS in this series, as well as 7-0-1 ATS as home dogs of fewer than 6 points. Knowing that New Orleans head coach Sean Payton is 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS when coming off three consecutive losses, including 5-0 SUATS as a dog – and provided New Orleans shakes the injury bug – look for the Saints to improve to 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS on Thanksgiving Day here tonight. Consider that playing on any .500 or greater NFL non-division home dog who was a playoff team last year if they’ve won 16 or more of their previous 28 home games and they’re facing a foe coming off an ATS loss of 7 or more points is 14-1-1 since 1996. |
|||||||
11-25-21 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -2 | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bulldogs find themselves in another payback situation tonight, falling in last year’s Egg Bowl, 31-24. That works well with the Rebels’ money-burning 3-8 ATS record when taking on foes playing with conference revenge. Ole Miss has ridden the Lane Train to an impressive 9-2 SU record this season, but head coach Kiffin is only 3-10 ATS in games with the better record when coming off consecutive wins. And in case you missed Mississippi State’s win over Auburn, you missed a totally unflappable coach in Leach, never losing his cool despite his team starting in a 28-3 hole, then ripping off 40 unanswered points to beat the Tigers, 43-34. In tonight’s annual slugfest between two of the seven SEC teams dotting the College Football Playoff Rankings, we’ll stick with Professor Leach and MSU’s 13-1 ATS success in the second of back-to-back home games. |
|||||||
11-25-21 | New Mexico +11.5 v. UAB | 73-86 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No sport changes my mind about playing or not playing a game more than college basketball regarding injuries simply as they are so hard to track with nearly 400 schools in Division I. Well, I just happened across some pretty good injury news for New Mexico in this one as star guard Jaelen House, an Arizona State transfer, will play after missing the previous game, and senior guard Saquan Singleton, the Lobos’ top returning scorer/rebounder/assist leader from last year, will make his season debut off a heart abnormality. Frankly, I thought this spread was a couple of points too high regardless but now like the Lobos quite a bit in Las Vegas. |
|||||||
11-25-21 | Baylor -12.5 v. VCU | 69-61 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bears are much better than the Rams offensively and defensively. The VCU defense has only allowed 52 PPG so far this season, but it hasn't faced an offense like Baylor. The Bears average 85.8 PPG and shouldn't slow down today. KenPom ranks BU as the fourth-best team in the nation and VCU 91st. This spread is too small for how good the Bears are. |
|||||||
11-25-21 | Presbyterian v. New Orleans -1.5 | 68-66 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a true home game for New Orleans as it hosts the UNO Classic. This spread seems off via various models as SportsLine's has the Privateers winning by seven and ESPN's BPI by 10. New Orleans has perhaps the best backcourt in the Southland Conference in seniors Derek St. Hilaire (21.6 ppg) and Tony Green (10.5 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 4.3 apg). The Privateers won easily on Wednesday, while Presbyterian had to play down to the wire vs. VMI. New Orleans is 10-1 ATS in its past 11 at home. |
|||||||
11-24-21 | 76ers v. Warriors -11 | 96-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Warriors are rested as they face the shorthanded 76ers. Philly is 2-6 SU and ATS without Joel Embiid, the wins and covers coming against the depleted Nuggets and the lowly Kings. Tobias Harris, Seth Curry and Danny Green all are questionable tonight. Even if they play, I like Golden State to improve to 8-3 ATS at home and 13-5 ATS overall. The Warriors rank first in defensive efficiency, by a wide margin, while Philly is 25th. |
|||||||
11-24-21 | Blazers -1.5 v. Kings | 121-125 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Trail Blazers have struggled on the road, going 1-7 SU and ATS, but this is a good spot for them against the flailing Kings. After a poor start to the season, Damian Lillard has been outstanding over his last eight games. He had 25 points in 31 minutes last night. Sacramento is 2-7 SU at home and enters this one on a 1-8 SU and ATS skid. The Kings just lost by eight at home to a very depleted 76ers lineup. Back Portland. |
|||||||
11-24-21 | Oilers v. Coyotes +1.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -145 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Hey, a decent puckline price finally on an underdog! (-140). Don't look now, but the Coyotes have won three of four and new No. 1 goaltender Scott Wedgewood has been great since being picked up off waivers as he's 3-1-1 with a 2.04 GAA with the Yotes. The Oilers are playing the second of a back-to-back and were shut down Tuesday in a loss in Dallas (we won on the Under). Edmonton also is missing a handful of injured guys. |
|||||||
11-24-21 | UC San Diego +5.5 v. Montana | 61-71 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I have this game as +2.5 for UC San Diego. The Tritons have gone 3-0 against the spread so far this season, winning every game by double digits, and are facing a Montana squad that lost to North Dakota. I think we have a much closer game than five points, and UC San Diego might just win outright. Grab the points. |
|||||||
11-24-21 | Hawks v. Spurs +4 | 124-106 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hawks hit the road to face the Spurs, who are in complete disarray having lost five straight. Grab Atlanta. |
|||||||
11-24-21 | Baylor -12.5 v. Arizona State | 75-63 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Baylor Bears aren’t being talked about enough with the top tier of teams. They are stacked. They have been dominant on both ends of the court. According to KenPom, the Bears rank sixth in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency. The Sun Devils have been very inconsistent. Their offense has had a lot of troubles and they haven’t played a defense of Baylor's caliber. Lay the points. |
|||||||
11-24-21 | Bulls v. Rockets +9.5 | 113-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bulls' ascent in the Eastern Conference has been one of the best stories on the young season. But they are coming off their worst loss this season to the Pacers, 109-77. I expect this young team to have a letdown against a Rockets team that is overdue for a competitive game. Take Houston. |
|||||||
11-24-21 | Heat v. Wolves | 101-113 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units OK, I understand the Heat are in the second of a road/road back-to-back and that Minnesota is playing much better of late, but the Heat are underdogs? That truly baffles me. Hey, I'll take it. Dating to last season, Miami has covered its past seven in the second of a B2B. |
|||||||
11-24-21 | Lakers v. Pacers -4 | 124-116 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a tough spot for the Lakers. They are a veteran-laden team that will be playing the second game of a back-to-back set. They have played two back-to-back sets this season and lost the second game of both. One was an eight-point loss to the Thunder, and the other was an 18-point loss to the Bulls. While LeBron James will return from his suspension, Anthony Davis just played 34 minutes last night while sick, so he might not be in top form. I’ll lay the points with the Pacers. |
|||||||
11-24-21 | Nicholls State v. Utah Valley | 63-74 | Win | 100 | 2 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units KenPom ranks Utah Valley at No. 188 and Nicholls State 215. While the SportsLine Projection Model has the Wolverines winning by a point in the SoCal Challenge, Sagarin has them by 4.3. Utah Valley has the WAC's best player in Fardaws Aimaq, who leads the Wolverines in both scoring (22.6 ppg) and rebounding (13.2 rpg). Utah Valley returns 10 players, including three starters, from last year's squad that won a share of the WAC regular season title. The school is coached by former NBA scrub Mark Madsen -- remember him dancing years ago at a Lakers title celebration? |
|||||||
11-24-21 | Connecticut -3 v. Auburn | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This game will be the Huskies' real start to the season. They have played four really bad teams. They're averaging 92 points while shooting better than 50 percent from the field and nearly 40 percent from deep. They've allowed 51.3 points per game while holding opponents to 33 percent shooting. The Tigers got a scare from South Florida last time out. UConn is a much better team than Auburn. This spread is too small. |
|||||||
11-24-21 | Jacksonville State v. Drexel +3.5 | 72-64 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Let's get our day started on a winning note from the Bahamas. Is this spread wrong? The various models appear to think so. SportsLine's has Drexel winning by two points. ESPN's BPI has the Dragons has about a point better. CAA Preseason Player of the Year Camren Wynter for Drexel will be the best player on the floor. |
|||||||
11-24-21 | Stony Brook v. Fairfield | 78-83 | Win | 100 | 1 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units KenPom ranks Fairfield 15 spots better nationally and this is a true home game for the Stags. The SportsLine Projection Model has them winning by 3. Sagarin and ESPN's BPI have it about the same. Fairfield played both Boston College and Providence tough, while Stony Brook is 0-2 on the road. Fairfield is one of four teams in the nation to welcome back more than 99 percent of its scoring and 99 percent of its minutes from last season. |
|||||||
11-24-21 | Maryland-Eastern Shore +18 v. Campbell | 55-66 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This spread seems too high at least according to various models -- SportsLine's has about the highest point differential I've seen at Campbell winning by 17. Campbell is a good Big South program but UMES has had some quality outings this season, only losing to Saint Joseph's by two and winning at Fordham. The Hawks should be able to stay within this number. |
|||||||
11-23-21 | CS-Fullerton v. UT-Rio Grande Valley +9.5 | 67-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The model makes this one a seven-point spread, and it looks like Texas-Rio Grande Valley should be able to keep this game within double digits. The Vaqueros play with an elevated pace and can go on scoring runs. Grab them and the points. |
|||||||
11-23-21 | Virginia v. Providence -2.5 | 58-40 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Friars are 5-0 on the season and already have taken down two Big Ten teams in Wisconsin and Northwestern. They now will face a Virginia team that struggles with an offensive efficiency rating that ranks them No. 156 in the country. No one has had an answer for Providence big man Nate Watson, who averages 18.6 points, 6.2 rebounds and 1.4 blocks. The Friars are a top-50 team rebounding the ball on the defensive end, while Virginia checks in 200 spots lower in the same category. Lay the small number with the better team on a neutral court. |
|||||||
11-23-21 | George Mason +5 v. Nevada | 69-88 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The wrong team is favored in this game. The Wolfpack have been terrible so far. They lost by 27 points yesterday while allowing 102 points. The Patriots have looked good on both ends of the floor. They are on fire from beyond the arc and that should continue against the Wolfpack’s terrible defense. |
|||||||
11-23-21 | Southern Utah v. Yale +1 | 88-85 | Loss | -113 | 2 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This play is a fade on the Thunderbirds. In their three games against Division I opponents, they are 0-3 straight up and against the spread. They have looked terrible on both ends of the court and they have shown no potential to get better. The Bulldogs are really strong defensively and they have shown some sparks offensively. The Bulldogs are a much better and more experienced team. They have good chemistry and it shows on defense. Lay the points. |
|||||||
11-22-21 | Gonzaga v. Central Michigan +34.5 | 107-54 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Gonzaga is the number one team in the country for good reason. The Zags are stacked. But they have their hardest game of the season Tuesday against UCLA. Once they get ahead big here, they likely will rest starters. The Chippewas' offense has shown potential. This spread is too high. |
|||||||
11-22-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -10.5 | 119-118 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Grizzlies are not expected to have Dillon Brooks or De'Anthony Melton tonight. It's a bad spot for Memphis against a surging Jazz team that's won and covered three straight. Utah has covered those three by an average of 13 points. The Jazz remember that Memphis stole Game 1 in Salt Lake City in last year's playoffs. Lay the points. |
|||||||
11-22-21 | Suns -5.5 v. Spurs | 115-111 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day The Suns have won 12 games in a row, and nine of those victories have been by at least seven points. They did just play against Denver on Sunday, but neither Chris Paul, Devin Booker nor Deandre Ayton logged more than 28 minutes in the lopsided win, so they should be relatively fresh. The Spurs have lost seven of their last nine, with the two wins during that stretch coming against bad Orlando and Sacramento teams. I like the Suns to come through with another decisive victory. |
|||||||
11-22-21 | Pacers v. Bulls -2.5 | 109-77 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This line looks cheap because the Bulls played Sunday and beat the gritty Knicks 109-103. But tonight it’s just the rudder-less Pacers trying to find themselves in Rick Carlisle’s scheme. They routed the Pelicans on Saturday to end a three-game slide, but I think Indiana's overall road woes (2-9 SU away) weigh more here than the Bulls playing yesterday. |
|||||||
11-22-21 | Belmont v. LSU -5.5 | 53-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units My model has this one at 8.5. This is a huge matchup on the road for Belmont, and I think it might be a bit too tall of a task. The Tigers are 4-0 against the spread and have won every game by at least 16 points. Lay them with LSU. |
|||||||
11-22-21 | Thunder v. Hawks -10.5 | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta is concluding a five-game homestand during which it won the first four contests after losing six straight overall. Three of those victories came against Milwaukee, Boston and Charlotte. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City lost the first two contests of its three-game road trip and is just 2-6 away from home this season. Expect the Hawks to cruise to their fifth straight win. |
|||||||
11-22-21 | Hofstra +9.5 v. Richmond | 68-81 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pride are underrated. They're 1-3 but every game has been close. Dating back to last season, the Pride are 10-3 against the spread in their last 13 as underdogs. The Spiders have been inconsistent, especially on defense. Their defense has been really bad the last three games and it has cost them two wins. Take the points. |
|||||||
11-22-21 | Virginia -7 v. Georgia | 65-55 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Tony Bennett's Virginia squad has looked uncharacteristically shaky out of the gate, starting the season 2-2. However, Georgia may be the Power Five's worst team this season and has an adjusted offensive efficiency rating that ranks it 189th in the nation. The Cavaliers have struggled to score through four games but have a good matchup here against a Bulldogs team that has a defensive efficiency rating that is No. 230 in the country. Virginia's tight defense should smother Georgia enough to cover the number. |
|||||||
11-22-21 | Ohio State v. Seton Hall | 79-76 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pirates took care of business against the bad teams and then beat fourth-ranked Michigan. According to KenPom, they rank 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Buckeyes had two scares against bad teams at home. Their last game was their first game on the road, and they lost to unranked Xavier. Now they have to face a better team in the Pirates. Lay the small number. |
|||||||
11-22-21 | Texas A&M v. Wisconsin -2.5 | 58-69 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I'll grab the favorite here as the model has it at -5.5 for the Badgers. This game is probably going to come down to turnovers, and Wisconsin has the edge there. The Badgers are eighth in the nation in turnovers allowed, while the Aggies are 22nd in turnovers forced. The high rate for Texas A&M has given it some good wins, but against a team that protects the ball like Wisconsin, the Aggies may have trouble covering. |
|||||||
11-22-21 | Northern Illinois v. Arkansas-Little Rock -2 | 60-67 | Win | 100 | 1 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Let's get this winning day started with an 11 a.m. ET tip from Jacksonville. Neither team is great with KenPom ranking Little Rock at No. 300 and Northern Illinois at 319. The Huskies have lost three straight in blowout fashion. They were picked to finish dead last in the MAC so I simply like Little Rock as the lesser of two evils. The SportsLine Projection Model has the Trojans winning by 6. |
|||||||
11-21-21 | Indiana State +9 v. New Mexico State | 66-80 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I had this as a play at +7.5 Saturday night and the market has moved it another 1.5 points in my favor. I'll take it. The model makes this a 4.5 spread, meaning we are getting five points of value on this line by my numbers. Indiana State has quietly covered three of its first four games, including both as an underdog. This line is simply too big. I don't think Indiana State wins, but it won't lose by 10. Take the points. |
|||||||
11-21-21 | Northeastern +2 v. Southern Illinois | 59-47 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The wrong team is favored here. I make Northeastern -1.5, so we are getting a nice four-point edge. Both teams have been playing decent basketball, but I think this one comes down to a bucket at the end of the game, and I'll take the points in that scenario every time. |
|||||||
11-21-21 | UL - Lafayette +12 v. Indiana | 44-76 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This line has fallen but there's still value on Louisiana. The Ragin' Cajuns are extremely stout defensively and they have the size to make Indiana work for every basket. The Hoosiers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games dating to last season, while Louisiana is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine versus teams with .600-plus winning percentages. Take the points. |
|||||||
11-21-21 | Colorado State v. Creighton +4 | 95-81 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The model has Creighton favored by one point. Colorado State has only covered against Oral Roberts, failing to do so against Pine Bluff and Bradley, and now this will be their first game with a single-digit spread. I just don't see the Rams doing well enough to win by four points. If anything, the Bluejays have an advantage in the Paradise Jam semifinals because they have a tenured coach who has led them to back-to-back solid wins against Nebraska and Brown. Take the points. |
|||||||
11-21-21 | Bengals v. Raiders +1 | Top | 32-13 | Loss | -109 | 92 h 55 m | Show |
5* NFL Game of the Week The Bengals were battered, 41-16, by the Browns in a big step-up game for Cincinnati as they enter this contest reeling with a 0-2 SUATS and ITS (In The Stats) ledger, as the magical elixir that was a 5-2 SUATS start to the season has disappeared. Sure, they may be coming in with a week of rest, but the fact of the matter is the black cats are 0-6 ATS when coming off a Bye as well as 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in non-division games versus foes coming off a double-digit defeat as an underdog under head coach Zac Taylor. Consider that NFL away teams coming off one home game that was preceded by three away games are 7-17 ATS, including 1-8 SUATS versus sub .600 non-division opponents. |
|||||||
11-21-21 | Niagara v. Youngstown State +2.5 | 58-53 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Have to say I don't get this spread whatsoever -- every model has Youngstown State as the favorite. SportsLine's has the Penguins winning by 7. ESPN's by 3.6. Sagarin's by 2.6. It's the third game in three days for both and that clearly favors the home side. Youngstown is 5-1 ATS in its past six as a dog. |
|||||||
11-21-21 | Ravens v. Bears +5 | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 89 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units We realize the Monsters of the Midway tend to stay in a deep sleep following Bye weeks, but a four-game losing streak has the natives restless. The price range also puts the Bears in a good situation, as they’re 8-2 ATS as non-conference home dogs of 4 or more points, while bumbling Baltimore shows up 0-5 ATS as non-division road favorites of more than 3 points. Like Shakira’s hips, these numbers don’t lie. |
|||||||
11-21-21 | Packers v. Vikings +2.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 89 h 57 m | Show |
4* NFC Division Game of the Day Kirk Cousins had a fine day in leading the Vikings past the Chargers last Sunday, when he completed 25-of-37 passes for 294 yards and two touchdowns, as the Vikes moved up to the No. 8 seed position in this year’s NFL playoff picture, as they now trail the Pack by 3.5 games in the NFC North. With it, we love fading teams with huge leads in divisional matchups, especially against those that are scratching and clawing to earn a playoff berth. Green Bay’s lousy rush defense allows 4.6 Yards Per Rush, which fits like a glove into Minnesota’s 4.4 Yards Per Rush offense. Consider that Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer is 10-4 ATS as a home dog in his NFL career, including 4-0 ATS in division games. Also playing against any .400 or greater NFL Road Favorite from Game Nine out who allows 4.6 or more yards Per Rush if the beat the spread by more than 6 points and scored 27 or fewer points in its last game, if they are facing a .444 or less opponent that averages 3.5 or more Yards Per Rush is 21-0 ATS since 1980. |
|||||||
11-21-21 | Old Dominion v. Pennsylvania +2.5 | 63-71 | Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Quakers have looked really good even with a 2-4 record. They have had a tough schedule. The Monarchs have had an easy schedule but have looked terrible. Their offense is a mess. The last two games, they scored 96 points combined on 30.4 percent shooting. The wrong team is favored in this game. |
|||||||
11-20-21 | 76ers v. Blazers -6 | 111-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Doc Rivers has already said Joel Embiid isn’t playing Saturday night at Portland, and the Sixers come off a huge win at Denver without him after five straight losses (0-5 ATS). Last game of a road trip. My theory: the Sixers are content with their Denver win and go back to being lousy without Embiid. The Blazers are 7-1 at home and have covered their last four as favorites. Huge home edge. Blazers to cover. |
|||||||
11-20-21 | Jazz -7.5 v. Kings | 123-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After a win over the Pistons, the Kings have reverted back to their struggling ways, losing both of the last two games by at least 10 points. Playing at home hasn’t helped them much this season, either, given their 2-5 record there ATS. This isn’t part of a back-to-back situation for the Jazz, so there shouldn’t be any rest days to worry about. This has plenty of blowout potential. |
|||||||
11-20-21 | Oklahoma State -10 v. Texas Tech | 23-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units OSU’s tough-as-nails defense has limited five foes to a season low yardage, including each of the last three games. The Pokes are ranked third in the country in Total Defense (4.58 yards per play allowed), are tied with Marshall for the top spot in Sacks (37), and allow just 14.8 fi rst downs per contest (ranked 5th). They held TCU QB Chandler Morris to just 103 yards passing in Saturday’s 63-17 win, one week after Morris lit up Baylor for 461 yards. Consider that the 'Pokes are getting better by the week, as 9-0 ATS & 10-1 SU runs attest. |
|||||||
11-20-21 | Western Illinois v. DePaul -9.5 | 80-84 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units My numbers have DePaul winning this by 13 points and I would play 9.5 or -10 as well. DePaul has yet to lose ATS, going 2-0-1 to open the season. On Thursday they notched an upset win against Rutgers and now are less double digit favorites against Western Illinois. This is mostly because the Leathernecks beat Nebraska, but Nebraska just isn't playing well, and DePaul will be a much tougher test for Western Illinois. Trust the model. |
|||||||
11-20-21 | Oregon +3.5 v. Utah | 7-38 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Kyle Whittingham has made Utah a West Coast powerhouse, and no fun to play at all, but despite his great work over the years, Kyle is just 10-18 ATS versus .900 or greater opponents, including 2-11 ATS as the favorite. Oregon won at Ohio State earlier this year, and winning a game at the Horseshoe is a Get Out of Jail Free card in our minds. Ducks’ Head Coach Mario Cristobal, the dream candidate in the hearts of Miami Hurricanes fans hyperventilating to replace Manny Diaz, is 6-1 SUATS away versus .700 or greater foes. Much like Baron Von Raschke applying the Claw to another helpless opponent in the ring. Consider that Cristobal is 32-12 SU in games with the better record, including 3-0 SUATS as a dog. |
|||||||
11-20-21 | Minnesota -7.5 v. Indiana | 35-14 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Back-to-back SUATS losses to a pair of I’s (Illinois and Iowa) have knocked the boat-rowers out of the water; however, IU presents a great chance to get the oars in the water again. The Hoosiers have had a miserable fall after 2020. Indiana stands 2-8 / 0-7, including 0-4 ITS (In the Stats) in the last four games, and are surrendering 192 YPG more than what they gained. IU has gone bowling the last two seasons, and this season they will also have time to go bowling, play bocce, and fi nd out if Mike Woodson is the right choice for Hoosiers hoops. It’s not an easy fi x for Hoosier football, and we don’t have the solution here. |
|||||||
11-20-21 | Illinois +13 v. Iowa | 23-33 | Win | 100 | 3 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hawkeyes are 0-4 ITS (In the Stats) in their last six games, after beginning the season holding opponents to seasonlow or second low yardage in the fi rst six. Iowa is also a shaky 2-9 ATS as a conference home favorite of more than 10 points, and are 1-4 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games. In the blue corner we have the Illini, who are 4-1 ATS on the road after a bye. Dick Butkus’ alma mater is also 7-2 ATS as a conference road dog of 17 or fewer points. While Iowa is leaking oil, our very own “impervious to leaks” Well Oiled Machine says 4-6 teams coming off a win, while taking double digits in Game Eleven of the season, are a Chunky Soup hearty 35-20-1 ATS since 1980, |
|||||||
11-20-21 | Northern Arizona v. UT-Rio Grande Valley +4 | 89-87 | Win | 100 | 2 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I have the wrong team favored on this one as the model is making the Vaqueros -2. We've been pretty successful with the home underdogs so let's look to keep it rolling with this sizable edge. I'd play it all the way down to +1.5 but it's been going the other way today so you might be able to get an even better number before the 2 p.m. tipoff. |
|||||||
11-20-21 | Richmond v. Drake -4.5 | 70-73 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Drake has played two games so far, and the stat line already looks like a Drake one from last season when the team started 18-0. The Bulldogs shoot at a high percentage (53.5), defend well (37.7 shooting percent allowed) and are shooting 51.1 percent from 3-point land. They also have all five starters back. A well coached team of upperclassmen doesn't make mistakes often. The home edge for Drake against Richmond gives this more value than the number indicates. Bulldogs cover. |
|||||||
11-20-21 | Stanford v. Baylor -14.5 | 48-86 | Win | 100 | 1 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bears have looked incredible to start this season. They have been dominant on both sides of the ball as they are ranked sixth in the nation in adjusted efficiency margin, per Kenpom. The Cardinal are 3-1 but haven’t looked good. In their one road game, they lost by 16 as a 3.5 point favorite. Now they have to go to Waco to face the reigning champions. The Bears amazing offense and fast pace should carry them to a huge win and cover. |
|||||||
11-20-21 | Iowa State +4 v. Oklahoma | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -115 | 64 h 12 m | Show |
4* Big-12 Play of the Day Iowa State is a solid 5-1 ATS away with conference revenge, and 4-1 ATS as dogs of less than 10 points. Meanwhile, the deflated Sooners have the look of “bubble burst” written all over them after falling to the Baylor Bears, and we’ll look for the Clones to stick another pin in their balloon today, especially since Oklahoma is 0-5 ATS at home in this series when coming off a SU favorite loss. The Sooners are also 6-10 ATS in games when coming off their first loss of the season, including 2-7 ATS versus foes who allow fewer than 23 PPG. ISU head coach Matt Campbell going against teams coming off an upset loss, is 6-0 ATS as a dog when facing an opponent that was upset as a favorite, as well as 8-2 ATS in games when his team was upset. Also, playing against any unrested college football favorite from Game Eight or later who allows 13.3 or more PPG on the season coming off its first loss of the season if they were favored by 4 or more points in the loss and lost to the spread by 14 or more points, if they are facing an opponent coming off a loss is a perfect 22-0 since 1980. |
|||||||
11-20-21 | Michigan v. UNLV +13 | 74-61 | Push | 0 | 14 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This seems like a big number considering how mediocre Michigan has looked and that UNLV is unbeaten, a veteran team and at home, although technically a neutral site at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas in something called the Roman Main Event. I'd expect this game to do massive betting action because of the start time: 12:30 early Saturday morning ET. People love to chase on late-night games -- why Hawaii football home games do so well. That unusual tip time might affect the Wolverines a lot more than the Rebs as well. |
|||||||
11-19-21 | Air Force +2 v. Nevada | Top | 41-39 | Win | 100 | 49 h 26 m | Show |
5* MWC Game of the Week The Wolf Pack is yet another team that appears to have hit the wall, going 2-2 the past four games following a 5-1 start to the season. Nevada is also 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS as a dog or as a favorite of fewer than 4 points versus military teams. Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun checks in with a 10-4 ATS mark as a dog against foes with an identical record. Consider as well, that .700 teams playing in Game 11 pretty much have their holiday bowl plans in the making, it is also a major letdown time for these teams dressing up without rest as contented home favorites in these contests. That’s confirmed by the fact that these chalk artists are just 74-82-1 ATS (47%) in this role since 1980. And when these teams are coming off a loss and facing .500 or greater opponents, they fall to 11-26 ATS. Worse, these teams tumble to 1-14 ATS as favorites of 6 or fewer points. |
|||||||
11-19-21 | Georgia Tech v. Georgia +4 | 88-78 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Ah, the Clean Old-Fashioned Hate rivalry. This spread seems a bit off -- bet it drops by morning -- so I'll happily take the Dawgs and the points. Tech's lone loss is at home to a MAC school, while Georgia's is at a good Cincinnati team. The SportsLine Projection Model has Tech currently winning by a point and a few others I've checked list UGA as the favorite. Coach Tom Crean's club is led by three good veteran transfers in Aaron Cook, Kario Oguendo and Braelen Bridges. |
|||||||
11-19-21 | Stetson v. Lamar +1.5 | 60-59 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Respect to readers if you can tell me where both Stetson and Lamar are located. Or if you know anyone named Stetson or Lamar personally (I don't know them but Georgia QB Stetson Bennett and of course Ravens QB Lamar Jackson). Anyways, this line seems off. The SportsLine Projection Model has Lamar winning by 5. So does ESPN's power rankings. Sagarin has the Cardinals by 2. Stetson has been blown out in both road games and had a quick turnaround/travel after losing Wednesday at Miami of Ohio. |
|||||||
11-19-21 | Southern Illinois v. Colorado -7.5 | 67-63 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Early projections show the Buffs should be around 10-point favorites for this Paradise Jam matchup in the Virgin Islands -- I actually attended that once. Quite fun. Colorado hasn't been challenged in a 3-0 start. The Buffs are averaging 90.3 points and shooting 51.5 percent from the field. Southern Illinois lost at Little Rock and beat Austin Peay so an obvious step up here for the Salukis. CU has outrebounded its three foes by 17 per game and will have a massive size advantage here. I'm thinking this spread rises a few points by tipoff. |
|||||||
11-19-21 | Magic +12.5 v. Nets | 113-115 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Orlando is truly terrible, but there are rumors Kevin Durant will take the game off -- frankly, the Nets should still win, but not by more than 12 points without the NBA's No. 2 scorer. |
|||||||
11-19-21 | Pacers v. Hornets -1 | 118-121 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hornets recently had a tough road trip where they went 1-4. However, they have bounced back on their current home-stand with a 3-0 record. All three wins were against quality opponents in the Knicks, Warriors and Wizards. With LaMelo Ball leading the way, I like the Hornets to continue their recent hot streak at home. |
|||||||
11-19-21 | George Mason v. James Madison +3 | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units we'll take this solid edge and continue to bet on home teams getting points. George Mason is coming off a big win over Maryland, which is probably what is giving JMU the value here (i.e. letdown for Patriots). |
|||||||
11-19-21 | Hofstra +11.5 v. Maryland | 67-69 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This pick is a fade on the Terrapins, who have looked terrible to start this season. They are 3-1, but it is easy to see this team isn’t good. The Terrapins have struggled on both ends but play at such a slow pace it doesn’t show up in the stats. Now they have to play against a good Hofstra team. The Pride are 1-2, but they have looked good and are elite from three-point range. That is where Maryland has had most of its defensive struggles. If the Pride get hot from downtown, they should win this game outright. But for safety, take the points. |
|||||||
11-19-21 | Siena v. Georgetown -15.5 | 65-83 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units this spread is too small for Georgetown. Siena has lost all three games by at least 18 points (0-3 ATS). The Saints were given +3 and +3.5 in their two most recent games, and they lost by 20 and 28. Those were against Delaware and Yale, and Georgetown is a level above those teams. Fade Siena until the Saints show they can keep a game anywhere near close. |
|||||||
11-19-21 | Norfolk State +9.5 v. Bowling Green | 90-84 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We won on a good Norfolk State team -- won the MEAC last year and a game in the First Four of the NCAA Tournament -- on Tuesday against William & Mary and I'm pretty surprised at this number at Bowling Green. The 1-2 Falcons were picked to finish sixth in the MAC and have a loss to Western Carolina, which isn't as good as Norfolk Sate. The SportsLine Projection Model has BGSU winning by 4. So does Sagarin. I will be quite shocked if the Spartans don't cover this spread and frankly think they can win outright. |
|||||||
11-18-21 | Wyoming +1.5 v. Washington | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cowboys have looked great to start this season, dominating on both ends of the floor. Dating back to last season, Wyoming has covered its last eight games. The Cowboys' defense has been spectacular, holding both teams they played under 50 points. The Huskies have struggled offensively to start the season, shooting 33.9 percent. Take Wyoming. |
|||||||
11-18-21 | 76ers v. Nuggets -7.5 | 103-89 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams have been hammered by injuries, which makes things a little tricky. The Nuggets likely will be without both Michael Porter Jr. (back) and Will Barton (back), while the 76ers are expected to be missing Joel Embiid (COVID-19), Matisse Thybulle (COVID-19) and Danny Green (hamstring). With those three out on Tuesday, Philadelphia lost by 35 points in Utah. Add in the Sixers' 2-6 record ATS as underdogs and I like Nikola Jokic to lead the Nuggets to a cover. |
|||||||
11-18-21 | Washington State v. Idaho +19.5 | 109-61 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This spread is about five points too high for the Battle of the Palouse. Are you aware this is the longest continuous running rivalry in the country? It is now because the Ivy League didn't play last season. Wazzu hasn't won a game by more than 19 yet and those were at home. Idaho played both Long Beach State and Fresno State very tough in losses. Transfers Philip Pepple Jr. and Mikey Dixon have shined for the Vandals in the early going. It's a veteran team that is shooting 47.8 percent from behind the arc, ranking first in the Big Sky and 10th in the nation. Teams shoot better from deep at home. |
|||||||
11-18-21 | Rutgers v. DePaul +3.5 | 70-73 | Win | 100 | 6 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Rutgers is 3-0 but has failed to cover the spread in each game. All three of its wins have come against teams ranked by KenPom No. 230 or lower. The Scarlet Knights have struggled to find their rhythm offensively ever since losing guard Jacob Young in the transfer portal to Oregon. DePaul enters as one of the nation's top rebounding teams and has four players averaging 13 points or better. Take the home underdog getting more than one possession. |
|||||||
11-18-21 | Clippers v. Grizzlies +1.5 | 108-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Clippers are really thin injury-wise right now as on top of Kawhi Leonard, Serge Ibaka and Marcus Morris all being out, which we knew, Nic Batum and Terance Mann probably are both sitting tonight as well. There's only so much Paul George can do by himself. This is also LA's first road game in 13 days and the front end of a B2B. Memphis is rested and healthy. I'd be willing to bet the Grizz are favored by tipoff. |
|||||||
11-18-21 | Louisville -19.5 v. Duke | 62-22 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cardinals annihilated Syracuse at home last week, 41-3, and will win their 2021 golden bowl ticket by dropping another ‘L’ on the Duke tonight. The 5-5 Cards are relieved to see the Blue Devils here with Kentucky on deck, as they’ve torched the Devils in each of their only other two meetings in this series, winning both games by an average score of 32-9. We certainly can’t go into battle against that armed only with Duke’s near-lifeless 0-19 SU and 7-12 ATS mark as a 20-point or larger home dog. |
|||||||
11-18-21 | UAB v. South Carolina +2.5 | 63-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units UAB, the preseason C-USA favorite, is unbeaten but has faced UNC-Asheville, Morehead State and Division III program Rhodes College. Thus, I'm pretty surprised the Blazers in their first road game against a good Power 5 program are giving 2.5 points at South Carolina. One issue for the Blazers in the early going is rebounding and USC has a +45 rebounding edge through three games. Every model I can find has the Gamecocks winning outright -- SportsLine's by two points. |
|||||||
11-18-21 | Marquette v. Ole Miss -3.5 | 78-72 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Fading Marquette didn't work out for me against Illinois, but I'll try again tonight with Ole Miss. The Rebels have a deep roster, they should commit fewer turnovers than the Illini did, and they're shooting 39.2 percent from deep. The Golden Eagles won't have the home crowd to fuel their pressure. Lay the small number. |
|||||||
11-18-21 | Ohio State v. Xavier +2.5 | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units My model is currently at a 57 percent win rate this year, 55-41-1 on the season and 38-20 (66 percent) in the last week. I preface this pick with the full track record because going against a huge team like Ohio State takes some guts and full trust in the model. The numbers are coming back with this game as a pick'em. This is going to be a contest that likely comes down to the final possessions, and in that situation, I'll take the home team with the points. Don't go any lower than +2.5 though. |
|||||||
11-18-21 | New Hampshire v. Providence -13 | 58-69 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Friars are already battle-tested, going on the road to Wisconsin and coming home with a 63-58 win. They are now hosting a New Hampshire team that recently lost to Marquette, 75-70, but don't let the score fool you. In that loss, New Hampshire made 12-of-27 3-point attempts after going just 3-of-16 from downtown in its season opener. I expect a worse shooting performance tonight, which should allow the much better Providence team to pull away. |
|||||||
11-17-21 | Bulls +1.5 v. Blazers | 107-112 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both Damian Lillard (abdomen) and Norman Powell (ankle) are listed as questionable for Portland. Losing either player would be significant, considering how little amount of depth the Trail Blazers have. When Lillard sat out against Denver on Sunday, they lost by 29 points. The Bulls are hot right now, winning back-to-back games on the strength of DeMar DeRozan's offensive explosion. I think Chicago could win this game outright, even if Lillard and Powell play. If they don’t, the Bulls could run away with the victory. |
|||||||
11-17-21 | Utah Valley +3 v. Long Beach State | 84-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Let's grab the points with Utah Valley. The Wolverines are coming off a 12-point win against Pepperdine in which they were 3.5-point underdogs, and my model makes them one-half point favorites versus the Beach. This isn't the biggest edge, but there's a good chance Utah Valley can win outright, and we get to cash in if it's a one-point contest as well. |
|||||||
11-17-21 | UC-Davis v. Pepperdine | 67-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Love those pick'em games because if we can't pick a winner outright, what are we doing here? I've had success on Pepperdine dating to last season and will back the Waves again at home. The SportsLine Projection Model has them winning by 11. I don't think that's right. ESPN power rankings has Pepperdine by 8.9 points. Also seems high. Sagarin by 1.5 points. This is the first-ever meeting between Pepperdine and UC Davis. |