Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-14-22 | Navy +12.5 v. SMU | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units SMU is only 1-6 ATS in Weekday games and 1-4 ATS versus opponents with double revenge, but they’re also 0-7 ATS as conference home favorites when coming off consecutive losses. That’s a perfect set-up for Navy’s mind boggling 15-0-1 ATS as a dog off a win versus losing foes. |
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10-13-22 | Temple v. Central Florida -23 | 13-70 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Owls are just 1-4 ATS in this series and riding a 0-6 SUATS losing skein in their last six road games. Ugh. Meanwhile, UCF’s program continues to live the high life (nine bowls in last ten seasons), though fans were somewhat disappointed in Gus Malzahn’s 9-4 debut last year after finishing 41-8 the previous four seasons. They were also quite upset when the Knights took the biggest fall in the AP Poll two weeks ago, snapping a 33-week streak of being ranked. However, UCF has won three straight and with an extra week to prepare, should be in a salty mood here tonight. Since they’ve beaten the Owls by 109 points in the last three meetings, we look for more of the same this evening. |
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10-10-22 | Raiders v. Chiefs -7 | 29-30 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Playing On any Monday night home team coming off back-to-back away games if they are facing a foe coming off a home game. That’s because these MNF hosts are 33-13 ATS in this role when coming off a SUATS win. Tie in the Raiders’ 1-7 ATS mark in games when seeking triple revenge, and their 1-4 ATS record in their last five division road games, and we certainly don’t want to go against Mahomes here, not when he sports a 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS record under the Monday Night lights. |
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10-09-22 | Bengals +3 v. Ravens | Top | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 96 h 51 m | Show |
SNF Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units Baltimore has been outgained in all four games this season. Cincinnati’s strength this season has been its defense as they rank No. 8 in points allowed and No. 11 in overall yards allowed. They are also one of five teams that have been installed as a favorite in every game this year – yet dress up as a dog today. Finally, consider that Cincinnati is 12-1 ATS against foes seeking double revenge. |
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10-09-22 | 49ers -6.5 v. Panthers | 37-15 | Win | 100 | 30 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units San Francisco is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall. The 49ers have only covered the spread twice in their last nine meetings with Carolina, but the Panthers have gone 1-10 ATS in their previous 11 contests overall. San Francisco is scoring just 17.8 points per game (tied-27th), but the Niners’ defense could easily add to the scoreboard while shutting down Baker Mayfield and Christian McCaffrey. Baker Mayfield had a bad day in the office against Arizona’s defense, going 22-of-36 for 197 yards, a TD, and a couple of interceptions. He also lost a fumble, so it’s no strange Baker was booed by the home fans. Christian McCaffrey posted eight totes for 27 yards while catching all of his nine targets for 81 yards and a TD, and DJ Moore added six receptions for 50 yards. |
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10-09-22 | Dolphins v. Jets +3.5 | 17-40 | Win | 100 | 89 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 units Wilson’s late 81-and-65-yard drives to defeat the Steelers last week and with it they bring a Top 10 ranked offense and defense in this game. That makes them a dog with the better offense and the better defense, and that tells us, we’d better take the points. The Dolphins are just 1-7 ATS in this series. To cap it off, playing against any .545 > NFL away team off a loss, that was preceded by three wins, who won 9 or fewer games last season if they are facing a division foe off a win is 16-1 ATS since 1980. |
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10-09-22 | Falcons v. Bucs -8.5 | Top | 15-21 | Loss | -110 | 88 h 50 m | Show |
NFC South Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units Brady is 12-4 ATS in his NFL career when his team is coming off consecutive losses, as well as 23-7 ATS when his team is coming off a double-digit loss. To clinch it, Brady is 7-1 ATS when his team is coming off a double-digit home loss, including 7-0 ATS the last seven games. |
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10-09-22 | Steelers +14.5 v. Bills | 3-38 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Tomlin is 5-0 SUATS the last five games overall when riding a losing streak of three or more games. All of which ties into his terrific 34-9 SU and 28-12-3 ATS mark in games without a winning record from Game Five out in his career – including 11-3 SU and 12-1-1 ATS as a dog. Meanwhile, the Bills return home off a gift at Baltimore where head coach John Harbaugh fell asleep at the wheel while allowing Buffalo to escape with a win. It doesn’t help knowing Buffalo is just 3-7 ATS when coming off back-to-back travelers as well as 3-5 ATS when hosting AFC North guests. |
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10-08-22 | Washington State +13.5 v. USC | Top | 14-30 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 1 m | Show |
PAC-12 Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units Washington State is 7-2 ATS as the visitor in this series and 12-3 ATS in Game One of back-to-back road games. Looking up another Washington State stat yields: 7-0 ATS on the road against double-digit unbeaten favorites. USC makes this decision easier by being 2-11 ATS in Game 6, 1-6 ATS home versus conference triple vengeance, and 2-6 ATS in game two of a back-to-back conference affair at home. Add to that the risk of SC looking ahead to a big-time revenge matchup with Utah next week and the LA crowd might be distracted. |
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10-08-22 | North Carolina +3.5 v. Miami-FL | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 69 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Mack Brown is a soothing 7-2 ATS with the Heels against rested foes, including 5-0 ATS the last five. Word out of Coral Gables is there is more wrong with this Miami team than just QB Tyler Van Dyke, who has lost a ton off his fastball and is missing wide receivers at an alarming rate this season. The honeymoon appears to be over with 1st year head coach Mario Cristobal after the shocking loss to Middle Tennessee, which won’t be helped by his 4-8 ATS record when coming off a SU favorite loss. Most important, playing against any college football favorite coming off an upset loss as a favorite of 20 or more points if they’re facing a .400 or greater foe is 44-25-2 ATS. |
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10-08-22 | Tennessee v. LSU +3 | Top | 40-13 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 21 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units Kelly has been a home hero, going 18-7 SU at home versus undefeated foes, including 13-3 in games in which his troops allow fewer than 21 PPG. LSU is also 5-1 ATS versus conference opponents with rest, and 15-8 ATS as a home dog when coming off an ATS loss, including 4-0 SUATS over the last four. Last week’s win over Auburn was ugly, as Kelly’s team fell behind early, 17-0, before getting it into gear. Tennessee has solid wins against Florida and |
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10-08-22 | Texas v. Oklahoma +7 | 49-0 | Loss | -107 | 76 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Texas is 1-3 ATS in quadruple revenge games. Also, the Horns have been the dog in each of the last 13 games in this series, which makes the Sooners a dog and we simply can’t ignore these ill-at-ease underdogs as the Oklahoma Sooners are 19-1 SU in games off a loss in which they allowed 36 or more points when facing sub .750 opponents. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian is 2-10 ATS as a favorite in his career off a SUATS win when facing a .500 or greater foe, including 0-8 ATS If his team scored fewer than 50 points in the win. |
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10-08-22 | Purdue +3 v. Maryland | 31-29 | Win | 100 | 68 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 units Purdue head coach Jeff Brohm is back in his groove as a dog of 4 or more points where he stands 21-6 ATS. Meanwhile, Maryland’s 4-1 SU start under head coach Mike Locksley is no mirage, as the Terps are the only team to actually threaten Michigan with defeat this season. Unfortunately for Maryland, coach Locksley has an 0-13 SU and 2-11 ATS mark in his career versus foes coming off consecutive wins. We liked the way Brohm’s bunch handled the pressure of the big stage against Minnesota, and with 77 YPG the better defense, we’re back on the beat with the Boilermakers this week. |
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10-08-22 | TCU v. Kansas +7 | 38-31 | Push | 0 | 68 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 units Teams who beat Oklahoma are 4-12-1 ATS the following game as a favorite versus opponents coming off consecutive wins. KU is also 6-2 ATS in its last eight series meetings with the Frogs, and the series host has cashed five of the last six tickets. Consider that 5-0 teams in Game Six tend to do well as dogs, going 56-35-2 ATS overall. Additionally, when they take on an opponent that scored 48 or more points in its last contest, they skyrocket to 16-3-1 ATS. With TCU just 2-6 ATS of late as a Big 12 road favorite or road dog of 4 or fewer points, We'll take Kansas. |
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10-02-22 | Chiefs v. Bucs | 41-31 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Brady has yet to get going because of a cluster injury problem to the Bucs’ offensive line and wide receiver corps. The Buccaneers are getting healthier in those areas. Mike Evans, Brady’s top target, comes off suspension. The Buccaneers are 7-2 ATS following a loss since Brady came on board in 2020. In addition, the GOAT’s is a stellar 11-1-1 ATS all-time as a home dog |
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10-02-22 | Cardinals +1 v. Panthers | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 18 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units NFL home teams in Game Two of a three-game home stand, coming off a SU underdog win, are just 6-10-1 ATS versus non-division foes, including 0-3 SUATS when favored by fewer than three points. Toss in the Panthers’ 2-6 ATS record in the second of a three-game home stand and suddenly we’ve got the makings of a wobbly home favorite. To clinch the selections, Arizona head coach Kliff Kingsbury is 14-4-1 ATS as a road dog during the regular season with the Cardinals, including 7-0 SUATS the last seven games. |
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10-02-22 | Jaguars v. Eagles -6.5 | Top | 21-29 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Given the fact the Jags, with their new head coach Doug Pederson, are 0-10 ATS in the second of consecutive away games, they are also 0-4 ATS against the NFC East. On the other side of the coin, Philly is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games against the AFC South. All good numbers in the Eagles’ favor, for sure. To cap all of this off, consider that playing one any NFL non-division home team in Game 4 if not favored by more than 7 points vs. a foe that scored more than 24 points in its last game is 17-3 ATS since 1980. |
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10-01-22 | NC State v. Clemson -6.5 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 36 h 17 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Week Rating; 4 units Both teams are 4-0 on the season, this marks the Wolfpack’s first ACC tilt while the Tigers bring a 2-0 conference record into this affair. Recent ATS history offer full support to Clemson here, as they are 7-1 ATS as conference chalk of 8 or fewer points, plus the series host has cashed in three of the last four. That’s pretty strong considering State’s 1-7 ATS failure as a dog of 8 or fewer points, and a 1-4 ATS mark playing away from Raleigh after a non-conference home game. Most important, though, is the fact that the Wolfpack tripped up the Tigers, 27-21, as 10.5-point home dogs last season. With Dabo revenge in play here, we’ll lay the points as he has excelled in conference games when seeking revenge, going 14-6 SU and 13-7 ATS in his career, including a perfect 6-0 SUATS as a single-digit favorite. |
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10-01-22 | Northwestern +25.5 v. Penn State | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 32 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Northwestern has won the stats in every game they’ve played this season. The Lions find themselves laying more than 3 TDs for the third time in the last four games, and they’re currently 0-5 ATS as conference favorites of 18 or more points. In fact, head coach James Franklin has struggled as big chalk, going 9-12 ATS as a favorite of 24 or more points, including 2-7 ATS in conference games. After 16-plus years at the helm in Evanston, head coach Pat Fitzgerald has seen it all, and he knows his team has gone 5-1 ATS of late in their initial Big Ten road games of the season. The line hasn’t moved much from the PSU -25.5 opener, so we’ll grab the big points as Northwestern looks to improve to 5-0 ATS away after three straight home games. |
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10-01-22 | Oklahoma State +2.5 v. Baylor | 36-25 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 units Game Four rested teams who find themselves seeking revenge are 38-15 ATS in conference games when coming off a double-dig win. This week we find Oklahoma State fitting the bill. Better yet, put these rested revengers up against with foes coming off a win of 6-plus points and they zoom to 23-5 ATS in this role. |
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10-01-22 | Michigan v. Iowa +10.5 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
Big-10 Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units The 23 points given up by the Hawkeyes in their first four games are the fewest scored on the team since 1966. In addition, Iowa will be looking to avenge last season’s loss to Michigan,42-3, in the Big Ten title game. things to consider are that College football home dogs like Iowa, who won 10-plus games the previous season, are 3-0 ATS in Game Five versus undefeated foes playing their first road game of the season. Additionally, 4-0 College football favorites in their first road game are 1-7 ATS since 1980 in Game Five versus foes coming off consecutive wins. |
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10-01-22 | Kentucky +7 v. Ole Miss | 19-22 | Win | 100 | 28 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Ole Miss’ run success has been impressive, but Kentucky should be able to at least slow it, as they allow 3.7 yards per carry and three scores to date. That should force the Rebels to throw more than they’ve shown, and we think they haven’t shown it because they either aren’t confident, or aren’t capable. Consider that the Rebels are 0-3 ATS vs Double Conference Revenge, and strangely 3-10 ATS in the second of back-to-back games at the Oxford campus. |
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10-01-22 | Georgia State v. Army -8 | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Game Four of the College Football season is often times a critical stepping-stone for teams who play with a week of rest. This is especially true for teams that are either playing at home off a win, or in conference games when seeking revenge. These reinvigorated home teams take the field off a win with a week of rest in Game Four of the season, they are a super-strong 99-67-2 ATS overall since 1980, including 21-9-1 ATS when they sport a .333 win percentage. Army finds itself in this desirable role on Saturday. And better yet, they improve to 14-3-1 ATS in this role when coming off a win of 17-plus points, including 8-0 SUATS in they won 8 or more games last season. |
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09-30-22 | New Mexico v. UNLV -13.5 | 20-31 | Loss | -116 | 15 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Lobo demise (9-41 SU, 10-27-1 ATS) may have actually crested with last week's 38-0 loss to LSU, with a stat debacle that saw 28-2 FD, & 633-88 TY deficits. Over its last 13 lined games, New Mexico has a 379-120 pt shortage, with its lone cover this season coming against a Unlv squad that turned it over no less than 7 times. Rebels have turned their spread fortunes around, with current 11-4-1 ATS run, covering their last home game by 28½. Lobos with just a 2-TD spot are a definite go-against in this. |
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09-30-22 | Washington v. UCLA +3 | 32-40 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Huskies look like they’ll be among the finalists for a berth in the season-ending Pac-12 championship games, our biggest concern is this is their first road outing after opening the season with four straight games at Husky Stadium. Another problem for DeBoer is the Bruins’ recent series domination, going 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS at home, including 4-0 ATS as a dog, as well as 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS with a win percentage of .700 or greater. UCLA practically matches the Huskies in the stats, with each team gaining 500-plus yards and surrendering less than 300 yards this campaign. Washington is also a horrible 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games with conference revenge. Additionally the Huskies are 3-9 ATS as Pac-12 road chalk. Finally, 4-0 College football favorites in their first road game are 1-7 ATS since 1980 in game five versus foes coming off consecutive wins. |
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09-29-22 | Dolphins +4 v. Bengals | 15-27 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Miami showed their true grit knocking off everyone's AFC Darlings, the Bills. Tua toughed it out after slamming his head off the turf in the 1st half & Hill & Waddle are just so dangerous, with Tua Tagovailoa questionable, the Dolphins may have to turn to Teddy Bridgewater, who would bring a 23-9 ATS career mark as an underdog starter into the game. Additionally, the Dolphins 5-2 vs Cincinnati. |
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09-26-22 | Cowboys v. Giants | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 units Giants’ wins has been by a field goal or less. This is the first time since 2016 that the Giants have opened the season 2-0. They hosted division rival Washington in the third game in 2016, when as a 3.5-point favorite they lost, 29-27. Dallas enters with an 8-2 ATS mark the last ten games in this series, as well as 7-2 ATS in its last nine appearances under the Monday Night lights. With Big Blue just 1-8 ATS in games when seeking “double revenge”, look for the G-Men to fall to 2-8 SUATS in games when coming off consecutive wins here this evening. |
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09-25-22 | 49ers -1.5 v. Broncos | 10-11 | Loss | -108 | 52 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units QB Trey Lance is out for the season with a broken ankle, it will likely prove to be the best thing that could have happened for head coach Kyle Shanahan and his troops, given Jimmy G’s 37-18 SU and 33-21-1 ATS career record as a starter in the NFL, including 25-11 ATS in game when not favored by more than 5 points. With Frisco 7-1 ATS in its last eight non-conference roadies, we’ll go mining with the Niners tonight. |
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09-25-22 | Packers +1 v. Bucs | Top | 14-12 | Win | 100 | 48 h 53 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units Green Bay’s is 14-2 ATS in games after battling the Bears, along with the Pack’s 9-5-1 SU and 10-5 ATS record in games when seeking “double revenge”, including 10-2 ATS versus .333 or great foes. On the other side of the coin, the Bucs are 2-8 ATS at home against foes seeking “double revenge”, as well as 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS in Game Three’s of the season. Finally the Packers are 11-2 SUATS with a sub .750 win percentage under head coach Matt LaFleur, including 4-0 SUATS when seeking revenge. |
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09-25-22 | Ravens v. Patriots +3 | 37-26 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Ravens’ task this week, if they are up to it, is to pick themselves back up off the canvas. It should prove difficult given the fact that playoff teams last year (read: Patriots) who are dogs in Game Three are 12-7 ATS against opponents coming off a SU favorite loss. Toss in Bill Belichick’s 33-17 SU and 40-20-1 ATS career mark with New England against foes off a similar SU favorite loss – including 4-0 ATS as a home dog . Finally, Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh owns a 3-10-3 ATS career mark as a favorite when coming off a SU favorite loss, including 0-9-3 ATS when favored by 3 or more points. |
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09-25-22 | Chiefs v. Colts +5.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 45 h 35 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units Matt Ryan now owns a 63.9 QB Rating with the Colts. The saving grace is his 11-5 SUATS career record against AFC West opposition, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS as a dog. On the opposite side of the field, the 2-0 Chiefs – the only undefeated team in the AFC West – enter with a Super Bowl grudge rematch on tap at Tampa Bay next week. Kansas City’s 1-5 ATS record in its last six AFC South skirmishes, and the Colts 6-1 ATS log when coming off a division road. Finally NFL home dogs coming off a shutout loss are 12-2-1 ATS, including 10-0 ATS versus .466 or greater opponents. |
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09-24-22 | Kansas State +12.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 32 h 53 m | Show |
Big-12 Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units K-State has covered the last three matchups in this series, and head coach Chris Kleiman is 7-2 ATS as a dog of 7 or more points, including 4-0 ATS when taking more than a dozen points. There is no question that the Wildcats have struggled offensively this season, but the loss to Tulane last week was truly an aberration for star RB Deuce Vaughn, as the diminutive junior failed to score a TD for the first time in 10 games. Kleiman’s defense, however, is very good. Consider , teams playing AWAY off their first loss of the season find point spread success, nearly reversing their home counterparts by going 139-106-7 ATS dating back to 1980. When these teams are also off an ATS loss (Kansas State), they improve to 121-78-4 ATS in these situations. And if these teams are coming off a SU favorite loss they ratchet up to 69-35-2 ATS, including 38-13-1 ATS as a dog, in addition to 31-10-1 ATS against a foe coming off a SUATS win – and a 20-6 ATS combo as a dog against foes coming off a SUATS win. |
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09-24-22 | UNLV -2.5 v. Utah State | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 30 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rebels have tied their win total from last year already and now get to try to take revenge after last year’s last minute loss. USU hasn’t shown the excellent pass attack that drove them to success in 2021 as they are 115th in passing yards and 119th in yards per play. QB Luke Bonner’s YPA has dropped from 8.4 to 6.4 and he has a 3-3 TD-INT ratio.That could be a big problem because if Utah State’s rushing defense continues to be as bad as it has been, he won’t be able to dig them out of a hole. They are 126th in rushing defense at 240.7 ypg allowed and 102nd in yards per play allowed. UNLV’s two top RBs each average over 6 YPC and have shown big play ability. Add in a QB completing over 70% of his passes at a 9.1 YPA clip and you have a tough mountain to climb for the Aggies. |
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09-24-22 | Florida +10.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 33-38 | Win | 100 | 28 h 12 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units Gators own a huge statistical edge in this series, going 5-1 SUATS the last six meetings, 11-1-1 ATS in Game 4, and a whopping: 16-1 ATS in the last 17 games against Tennessee. The Vols are 0-4 SUATS in Game 4’s, and 1-8 ATS as SEC home favorites of 10 or more points. Tennessee is also 6-8 SU and 4-10 ATS at Rocky Top coming off a home game, and a depressing 0-5 SUATS against SEC foes coming off a win. To cap it off Florida is 14-2 SU and 14-1-1 ATS in this series when Tennessee is coming off a win of 10 or more. |
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09-24-22 | Missouri +7 v. Auburn | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Auburn's first major test was a miserable failure last week, as the 41-12 loss to Penn State was the Tigers’ fifth straight to a Power Five team. Tigers have not had a single defensive takeaway this season through three games. Harsin is 6-11 ATS when favored and coming off a loss, including 2-7 ATS at home. Consider that home teams coming off their first loss of the season is 139-154-4 ATS since 1980. And if they allowed 35 or more points in their initial loss they fall to 45-69-2 ATS. When they are facing a conference opponent, they plummet to 20-39-1 ATS. And when these same teams are taking on conference foes and coming off a loss of more than 21 points, they bottom out at 10-26 SU and 10-25-1 ATS. |
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09-24-22 | Clemson -7 v. Wake Forest | 51-45 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney just signed a new contract extension worth big bucks, and he knows his team can overcome a slow start to get back in the CFB Playoff discussion. Swinney stands 48-5 SU and 34-18-1 ATS in conference games when coming off a win of 20-plus points and an ATS loss, including a 19-5 ATS record away. Consider that Wake has fallen asleep as a home dog against foes coming off consecutive wins, going just 3-34 SU and 10-27 ATS. |
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09-23-22 | Boise State -16 v. UTEP | 10-27 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Broncos hit the highway for the third time in four games tonight surrendering just 230 YPG (No. 10 in the nation), pretty amazing when we consider that Boise State is usually known for its high-scoring offense. Game Fours have worked out well recently for them, who are on a 4-0 SUATS streak with an average win margin of 21.5 PPG. A 1-10 SU failure in Game Fives won’t work here for the Miners, not when they’re 0-6 ATS in this series, and just 23-54 ATS in home losses as an underdog. |
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09-19-22 | Titans +11 v. Bills | 7-41 | Loss | -128 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units NFL teams in Game Two of the season, coming off a double-digit win in Game One, are just 101-124-12 since 1990. When facing foes coming off a SU favorite loss they are 17-37-2 ATS – including 4-16 ATS as non-division chalk. Titans will not enter tonight’s contest lacking confidence, having upended the Bills as underdogs in each of the past two seasons. They are also 8-2 ATS in their last ten Monday night appearances. With Buffalo 0-4 ATS at home on Mondays and 0-3 ATS after playing on Thursdays. Finally consider that Tennessee HC, Vrabel, is 13-3 ATS as an underdog of 4 or more points with 12 outright wins. |
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09-18-22 | Bears v. Packers -10 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 34 h 16 m | Show |
SNF Game of the Month Rating; 5 Units Rodgers has made a living at home in his career with the Packers, going 69-38-4 ATS overall, including 27-12 ATS in division games, as well as 28-9-2 ATS when hosting foes coming off a SUATS win. Green Bay is 20-3 SU and 18-5 ATS in this series since 2011, including 8-0 SUATS when coming off a loss. To clinch it, Green Bay is 9-0 SUATS in regular season games when coming off a loss under head coach Matt LaFleur. |
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09-18-22 | Washington Commanders +1.5 v. Lions | 27-36 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 9 m | Show | |
NFL Play of the Day Rating; 3 Units The Lions have been underdogs in each of their last 25 games. Washington is 19-10 ATS as a small dog of 3 or fewer points, including 10-1 ATS when coming off a win. Detroit is a dreadful 6-19 ATS record as a home favorite when coming off a home game, including 0-5 SUATS when favored by fewer than 3 points. To cap it off, consider that NFL Hard Knocks teams from the preseason (Lions) are 22-36-1 ATS as a pick or favorite in Games 1-8 of the regular season, including 1-13 ATS when not favored by 3 or more points. |
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09-18-22 | Bucs v. Saints +3 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 2 m | Show |
NFC Division Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units Tom Brady comes into this one with a 2-7 ATS career mark when taking to the road as a favorite when coming off a road win after beating the spread by double-digits in his last game including six straight losing tickets in his last six tries. Additionally Tampa is 1-6 ATS away in games with double revenge. Consider as well that New Orleans is 7-1 ATS the last eight games in this series, and 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS as conference home dogs versus .800 or greater opponents. |
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09-18-22 | Dolphins v. Ravens -3.5 | 42-38 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Dolphins are 0-6-1 ATS after Patriots’ performances, as well as 1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in Game Two of the season. The Ravens are 7-0 ATS in games before New England, while also going 9-1 ATS in this series, and 6-0 ATS at home versus the AFC East. Additionally, NFL away teams in Game Two of the season, coming off a double-digit win in Game One, are just 17-35-2 ATS when facing a foe coming off a SUATS win. |
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09-17-22 | UTSA +12.5 v. Texas | 20-41 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units UTSA is 20-8 SU under Traylor, with only two losses by more than 14 points. He is also 18-5 SU in games in which his team has an equal or better overall record than the opponent, including 6-2 ATS as a dog. Consider as well that Traylor is is 17-9 ATS with this team, including 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS away versus non-conference foes. |
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09-17-22 | Michigan State v. Washington -3.5 | 28-39 | Win | 100 | 79 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units MSU is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 games versus the Pac-12, as well as 1-8 ATS in Game Three’s when coming off a victory. Huskies are 5-1 versus the number as non-conference chalk of less than 10 points, 9-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in Game Three, and 12-1 SU and 8-4-1 ATS as a host versus Big Ten opposition. Hang at home with the Huskies. To conclude, if the 2-0 teams managed to beat the spread in each of their first two games, they’ve gone on to beat the spread only 47% of the time in Game Three. And worse, if they are on the road they fall to 66-90 ATS. |
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09-17-22 | Pirates v. Mets -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 units Pirates’ starter Bryse Wilson just pitched against the Mets earlier this month and gave up four runs in a 5-1 Pirates defeat. Wilson is struggling in a big way, posting a 5.73 ERA last month and a 5.40 ERA in his two outings this month. Mets’ starter Chris Bassitt just held the Pirates to one run in seven innings two starts ago and has limited the Pirates to only four runs in 12 career innings. The Mets have outscored the Pirates by a wide 28-13 margin. |
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09-17-22 | Marshall v. Bowling Green +16.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 77 h 15 m | Show |
Mismatch of the Week Rating: 4 units Bowling Green is 4-0 ATS at home in this series and this 6th most experienced team in the nation. Meanwhile, Marshall has struggled on the road when they visit the MAC, going 11-25-1 ATS and 1-5 ATS when coming off a win where they beat a 21 point plus spread. In addition, double-digit ATS winners that are 2-0 road favorites slip badly the following week, going 3-10 ATS the past five years in game 3’s. Consider as well that playing against any college football favorite who upset Notre Dame in its last game if they beat the spread by 17 or more points in the win is 12-1-1 since 1992. |
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09-17-22 | Penn State v. Auburn +3 | Top | 41-12 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 4 m | Show |
Inter-Conference Game of the Month Rating; 5 Units Coach Bryan Harsin after a rough first season, is 27-7 in his first four games of the season and Auburn is 10-2 ATS as home dogs against undefeated foes. Nittany Lions leader James Franklin is 3-10-1 ATS away vs a team coming off back to back wins. PSU being 2-7 ATS vs. the SEC is another reason we’re going with the Tigers. |
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09-17-22 | Western Kentucky +6.5 v. Indiana | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 68 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating; 3 units Finally a decent game from the Hoosiers, behind 155 rushing yards from Shivers. But that was vs Idaho, so note being held to 32 rushing yards s vs Illinois. Indy on 2-12 ATS run, with both covers by a single point. 'Toppers on an 8-1-1 spread run, & 10-1 SU skein (41+ pts 10-of-11 games). |
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09-16-22 | Air Force -16 v. Wyoming | 14-17 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 units I know that's a lot of points to lay on the road, but who is going to stop Air Force this season on the ground. They struggled last week with three turnovers against Colorado and still managed to put up 41 points. Having an experienced quarterback like Daniels is crucial to the option offense. There's no defense that he hasn't seen in defending the option. Wyoming has played three games already and is 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS. The Falcons are 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS after crushing Colorado last week 41-0 as a 17-point home favorite. |
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09-15-22 | Chargers +4 v. Chiefs | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chargers held Derek Carr to a passer rating of 69.1 while sacking him five times and picking off three passes. So the Chiefs face a much sterner test in this early AFC West Division match up. Herbert brings a 2-0 SUATS career ledger at Arrowhead Stadium into this contest and that catches our attention. The visiting team 13-4 ATS the last seventeen games in this series. I am not willing to back Kansas City in this spot. There is almost always going to be value on the road underdog when they are facing a team that the public loves. |
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09-15-22 | A's v. Astros -1.5 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Astros will be starting Lance McCullers Jr. on the mound in this one. He is currently 3-1 with a 2.20 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. In his last start, he pitched for 7.0 innings and he only gave up four hits and two earned runs. Luckily, the Astro's bullpen has also been great this season. They are allowing 2.79 runs per game, which is the lowest bullpen ERA in the league. As a team, the Astros are allowing 3.28 runs per game, which is the second least in the MLB. |
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09-12-22 | Broncos v. Seahawks +6.5 | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 units Playing against any NFL Monday Night favorite in Game One of the season we would have won the money 67% percent of the time, as these Monday Night favorites are 32-27 SU and 19-39-1 ATS since 1980. When the Over/Under total in the game is 41 or greater points, they fall to 25-22 SU and 12-34-1 ATS, including 4-17-1 ATS in division contests. Finally, with the Broncos’ 5-10 SU and 3-10-2 ATS mark in their last 15 Monday Night contests, the points become the play in this one. |
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09-12-22 | Cubs v. Mets -1.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 units Chris Bassitt (13-7, 3.24 ERA) will get the start for the Mets on Monday. He is 5-5 at home this season with a 2.77 ERA in 14 games. Bassitt has been pitching his best baseball late in the season, with a 6-0 record and 1.75 ERA in his last seven starts. The Cubs are in a tough spot having a later travel night on Sunday. They are without Wilson Contreras and also could be missing Hoerner. Chicago has also been outscored 20-4 in their last three road games. |
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09-11-22 | Bucs -2.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 19-3 | Win | 100 | 75 h 26 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units Bucs are 1-6 ATS as non-division road chalk and 1-6-2 ATS in their last nine games against NFC East foes. Looking to the opposite side of the field we find Dallas at 7-0 ATS in its last seven home dog roles, and 4-0 ATS versus the, NFC South. To cap it off consider that an NFL pick or road favorites who won 13-plus games last season are 19-32-1 ATS in season openers, including 0-4 ATS in games with an Over/Under total of 50 or more points. |
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09-11-22 | Steelers +7 v. Bengals | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 68 h 33 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units Steeler head coach, Mike Tomlin makes winning division games a priority, going 65-29-1 in his career – including 10-4-1 in first division contests of the season. Additionally, playing against NFL any division road team not favored by 8 or more points in Game One of the season if they lost in the Super Bowl game last season is a perfect 11-0 ATS since 1988. |
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09-11-22 | Colts v. Texans +7.5 | 20-20 | Win | 100 | 50 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Colts’ track record during Week 1 is absolutely dreadful – 0-7 ATS the past seven years. They’ve lost their last five openers by an average of 16.2 points. This includes an 0-4 SU and ATS Week 1 mark under Frank Reich. If laying more than a touchdown opening week during Weeks 1 and 2 the past 10 years, the Colts would be 2-18 ATS. Judging by preseason, Indianapolis doesn’t look ready again this year. Matt Ryan is the team’s new quarterback. He’s past his prime and has yet to display chemistry with his new receivers, who are mediocre at best. In addition, the Texans are 6-2 in Game Ones at home, and 10-4 ATS as division home dogs of 9 or fewer points. |
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09-11-22 | Ravens -6.5 v. Jets | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 49 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Washed-up Joe Flacco is not a quarterback worth betting on. Flacco hasn’t been good since helping the Ravens to a Super Bowl victory – and that was 10 seasons ago. The Jets scored the fifth-fewest points in the league last season. Their defense even worse, surrendering the most points in the NFL. Since drafting Lamar Jackson in 2018, the Ravens have scored the fourth-most points trailing only the Chiefs, Buccaneers and Saints. Baltimore went unbeaten during preseason again. The Ravens lost in overtime to the Raiders in last year’s opener, but were 5-0 SU and ATS during their previous Week 1 games with their average win margin being 30.2 points. |
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09-10-22 | Baylor v. BYU -3 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 57 h 5 m | Show |
CFB Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units Cougars are 15-7 ATS in home openers, including 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS as a favorite of more than 2 points. The host in this series winning and covering the last three matchups, while BYU is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with Big 12 opponents. To clinch it, Baylor is 2-10 ATS in its first away game of the season, including 0-6 ATS when not favored by more than 14 points. |
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09-10-22 | Boston College +3 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -120 | 54 h 22 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units With at least four games to come against ranked opponents, last weeks loss deals a major blow to the Eagles’ path back to bowl eligibility under 3rd-year coach Jeff Hafley. A long-term 18-7-1 ATS record as conference road dogs since 2013, including 7-1 ATS when both teams are coming off a loss, plus a series spread mark of 8-3 ATS in the last eleven games (4-1 ATS in the last five) means it's a BC call tonight. To seal the deal consider that beaten bowlers in Game Two who lost their season-opening game as a favorite are 54-72 ATS in these games, and if they happen to be seeking revenge in this contest, they dip to 8-17 SU and 6-19 ATS in these frays – including 2-13 SU and 1-14 ATS if they scored 24 or fewer points in the loss. |
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09-10-22 | Kansas +13.5 v. West Virginia | 55-42 | Win | 100 | 52 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units West Virginia, the Mountaineers are recovering from losing the Backyard Brawl last week to Pitt. The numbers are not favorable for head coach Neal Brown, whose seat is heating up more rapidly each passing week. Try 7-11-2 ATS as a home favorite of 9 or more points on for size, including 3-8-2 ATS at home. If that is not enough consider that Game Two bowlers off a season opening defeat when laying points, are just 107-117-2 ATS. To make it worse, if these teams are facing a conference foe that is coming off a loss they dip to 7-18 ATS. |
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09-10-22 | Iowa State +3.5 v. Iowa | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 48 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units One of these 2 teams has an offense, & it ain't the Hawkeyes, who finished 121st in the nation in that category last year. How about Iowa's opening 7-3 win over So Dakota St was the first time that a team scored 7 points with no accompanying TD in forever (1 FG & 2 safeties). The Cyclones have been a premier dog play, standing at 23-9 in that situation over the past few years, & have unveiled QB Dekkers (25-of-31 last wk). Revenge. |
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09-10-22 | Alabama -19.5 v. Texas | 20-19 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 7 m | Show | |
CFB Play of the Day Texas is a paltry 2-9 ATS in its last 11 SEC wars, and not after gaining just 383 total yards in the blowout of ULM. In addition, Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian is 1-10 ATS in games when both teams are coming off a SUATS win if his team scored 35-plus points in its last game. To cap it all off when coming off a season-opening win of more than 44 points, AP Preseason No. 1 ranked teams (Alabama this season) are 7-0 SUATS in Game Two since 1980 – by an average score of 49-8. |
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09-09-22 | Louisville v. Central Florida -5 | 20-14 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units We’ll stick with UCF’s 6-1 ATS mark of late as home chalk of fewer than 7 points, as opposed to Louie’s 2-9 ATS dog log in that same price range. . In addition, beaten bowlers in Game Two who lost their season-opening game as a favorite become sluggish propositions in Game Two. That’s confirmed by their 54-72 ATS mark in these games, a role in which Louisville, will find themselves this week. |
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09-08-22 | Bills v. Rams +2.5 | Top | 31-10 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
Thursday Blowout Rating: 4 Units Rams are 5-0 SUATS Game One of the season the last five years, while head coach Sean McVay is 13-2 SU and 11-4 ATS during the first three games of the season in his NFL career, including 7-1 SUATS at home. With public support overflowing for the Bills, we consider that fact that defending Super Bowl champions are 5-0 ATS as home dogs during the first six games of the season since 1980. |
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09-04-22 | Florida State +3 v. LSU | Top | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 99 h 23 m | Show |
NCAAF Play of the Day 4 Units Kelly hasn’t exactly been an ATM early in the season, going 0-3 ATS in season openers the last three years, and 5-13-2 ATS in the first three games of the year versus foes that won 5 or fewer games the previous season, including 0-5 ATS when not favored by 7 or more points. Meanwhile, Norvell is 16-9 SU and 11-7 ATS versus non-conference opponents, including 7-0 ATS the last seven contests, and 7-1 ATS during the first three games of the season. |
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09-03-22 | SMU v. North Texas +10 | 48-10 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units North Texas HC Littrell is a solid 8-4 SU and 7-3-1 ATS record at home when coming off a win. There’s also the fact that SMU has taken out the N. Texas three straight years, making this a triple-revenge affair for UN – a role in which N. Texas is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in since 2017. In the same vein, teams in Game One of the season are 0-4 ATS since 2000 when facing a foe coming off a win seeking triple revenge when not favored by more than 10 points. |
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09-03-22 | Notre Dame +16.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 10-21 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
5* CFB Blowout The tale of the ATS tape tonight doesn’t strongly favor either side. Ohio State is 34-1 SU in season openers, including 22 wins in a row, and 4-0 SUATS of late in the series (average win 15.5 PPG). The Irish counter with a recent 14-5 SU record versus Big Ten opponents, and in the last 115 games in which ND has tackled the Big Ten, they’ve lost by more than 17 points only 10 times. The bottom line is this many points is simply too much to pass up with a quality team like the Irish. Buckeyes win on the scoreboard, but Notre Dame cashes the ticket. |
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09-03-22 | Utah v. Florida +3 | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 75 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Utes are just 4-9 SU in one-score contests the past five seasons, including 1-6 SU on the road. They’re also 1-5 ATS as non-conference favorites the last four years, numbers that pale next to Florida’s 3-0 ATS run as a home dog, and its 3-0 ATS effort against the Pac-12. Consider that new Florida head coach Billy Napier is 12-6 ATS as a dog, including 7-1 SUATS as a dog of 5 or fewer points. |
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09-03-22 | North Carolina v. Appalachian State +1.5 | Top | 63-61 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 53 m | Show |
NCAAF Game of the Week 5 Units Appalachian State stands 11-1 SU at home under third-year head coach Shawn Clarke, and 32-3 SU on the Mountain since 2016. FYI: the Apps are also 40-11 ITS (In The Stats) the last four years, including 21-3 at home. To seal the deal, consider that Appalachian State is 23-1 SU in regular season games in which they win the stats the past two seasons. |
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09-02-22 | TCU v. Colorado +13.5 | 38-13 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating; 3 Units Head coach Karl Dorrell revamped his offensive coaching staff with four new hires. Despite Dykes owning a money-burning 8-17 ATS as a road favorite, including 3-16 ATS the last nineteen outings, the public is still enamored with the Horned Frogs (now at -13.5). But with a Rocky Mountain high home field advantage, looks for the Buffs to trade scores with TCU and keep the game tight throughout. |
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09-02-22 | Illinois +3 v. Indiana | 20-23 | Push | 0 | 52 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating; 3 Units The Hoosiers gave up 384 yards of offense per game, as the Fighting Illini are going to have multiple opportunities to score throughout this game. Tommy Devito and Chase Brown carried their offense last week, as I wouldn't be surprised if they went off in this one again. Indiana also gave up 33.3 points per game. This was the most in the Big Ten, as I don't see their upgrades completely changing this team. They still have a long way to go and I loved the way the Fighting Illini looked against Wyoming. I understand that they are a weaker opponent, but the offense was humming and they were putting pressure on the opposing quarterback. They will do that again in this one, as Illinois will be able to keep the Hoosiers off the scoreboard for the majority of this game. |
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09-01-22 | West Virginia +8 v. Pittsburgh | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units West Virginia is 9-3 SUATS away in the series, including 5-1 SUATS as underdogs. By comparison, Pitt has posted a 1-6 SU effort versus Big 12 opponents, and a 2-6 ATS record as a non-conference favorite of 8 or fewer points. To cap it off, Coach Brown’s solid 14-7-2 ATS mark as a road dog tells us West Virginia can keep this one close. |
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08-30-22 | Dodgers v. Mets +1.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Taijuan Walker takes the hill for the Mets as he logs his 23rd start of the season in this contest. He comes in 10-3 with a 3.38 ERA, a 1.202 WHIP, 35 walks and 88 strikeouts over 117.1 innings of work on the year. Walker didn’t factor in the decision in his last start, which came last Tuesday on the road against the Yankees. He threw five innings, allowing two runs on four hits with two walks and three strikeouts in a game the Mets eventually dropped 4-2. In his last three starts, Walker is 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, seven walks and eight strikeouts over 13 innings of work. Walker makes his 11th career start against the Dodgers in this contest. He is 3-3 with a 4.25 ERA, a 1.321 WHIP, 18 walks and 48 strikeouts over 53 innings of work against them. Walker has an 8-5 record, a 3.34 ERA, a 1.087 WHIP, 44 walks and 125 strikeouts over 145.1 innings in 26 career appearances, 25 starts, at Citi Field. |
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08-29-22 | Cardinals v. Reds +1.5 | 13-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cardinals starting pitcher Miles Mikolas (10-10, 3.35 ERA) will try to rebound from his 7-1 loss to the Chicago Cubs in his last outing. He allowed five runs (three earned) on six hits in 6 2/3 in innings. Mikolas is 1-1 with a 5.25 ERA against the Reds this season and 3-4 with a 5.37 ERA in 14 career outings against them, including 12 starts. Jonathan India (3-for-8, two homers, three RBIs) and Colin Moran (8-for-29, two doubles, homer, four RBIs) have hit well against Mikolas. Reds are expected to give veteran Chase Anderson his first major league start this season. Anderson was 7-3 with a 4.50 ERA in 27 games, including 16 starts, with the Triple-A Toledo Mud Hens and Double-A Durham Bulls this season. |
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08-28-22 | Lions v. Steelers -4 | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 122 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Lions have been famous for sleeping on the job this time of the season (1-11 SU and 2-9 ATS in previous preseason play entering this August slate of games this year). Consider that the Lions were 7-70-1 ATS in SU preseason losses since 1983 upon entering this year’s fake games – including 7-45-1 ATS as underdogs. To cap if off, consider that playing against any team in Game Three if they won three or fewer preseason games last season is 11-1-1 ATS since 2002. |
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08-27-22 | Nevada v. New Mexico State +10.5 | 23-12 | Loss | -110 | 467 h 48 m | Show | |
NCAAF Upset Special Nevada has managed to win only seven of its 26 games away from Reno by more than 10 points the past four seasons – and those were all with bowl teams. New NMSU head coach Jerry Kill takes over for the Aggies. His presence alone guarantees an uptick in NMSU stock this season. Kill is 7-1 SU in home openers in his college career, with the only loss coming by seven points. Consider that Aggies head coach Jerry Kill is 17-8 ATS as a double-digit dog in his career, including 6-1 ATS at home (6-0 ATS the last six). |
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08-27-22 | Washington Commanders v. Ravens -6 | 15-17 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units We’re continuing to focus on quarterback play to help project preseason matchups. Baltimore has the advantage here with Huntley, but Heinicke and Howell are a strong combination for the preseason. We’re also likely to see some of Wentz, while it’s unlikely that Jackson plays. Huntley has been able to run the Ravens’ offense at a high level, evidenced by his efficient play through the air. There’s a good chance that he keeps up his great play against a Commanders defense that just got shredded by Patrick Mahomes. Baltimore has an added incentive to go for the win, given their record-breaking winning streak during the preseason (21-0 SU, 20-1 ATS). We’re likely to see them get it done at home against a struggling Commanders team. |
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08-27-22 | Rams v. Bengals -2.5 | 7-16 | Win | 100 | 49 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Rams are not winning preseason games with any consistency. Coach Sean McVay is 7-10 in his career in preseason action and the Rams have now dropped four out of their last five preseason games. The Bengals have received outstanding production from backup QB Brandon Allen. He is sporting a 10:6 TD to INT ratio in his limited career action in regular season play. I also like Jake Browning who was a star QB in college. He tallied 190 passing yards against the Cardinals in the first preseason bout and 89 last week. The Rams' defense is giving up several points. They have allowed 22 and 24 points respectively in their two preseason games against the Chargers and Texans. |
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08-27-22 | Jaguars +4 v. Falcons | 12-28 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Atlanta rides a 0-5 SUATS mark in Game Three of the preseason into this contest. Additionally, the dirty birds have a 3-8 SU and 3-7-1 ATS preseason series record against Jacksonville. We seal the deal with the fact that the Jaguars are 12-1 ATS away versus NFC South opponents during the preseason. |
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08-26-22 | Bills +7 v. Panthers | 0-21 | Loss | -135 | 81 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating; 4 Units One might think that road teams coming off consecutive home games during the preseason are primed for a letdown. However, teams in this role are a rock-solid 53-47 SU and 60- 38-2 ATS (61%) ATS when taking to the preseason road and coming off a pair of home victories since 1990. Better yet, bring these same teams in off a win of more than 3 points and they zoom to 13-3 SU and 14-1-1 ATS. Take the Bills |
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08-24-22 | White Sox v. Orioles +1.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -159 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Giolito has struggled most of the season and the White Sox have continued to underachieve given their expectations coming into the year. He was clobbered in his previous contest against Houston and has had issues against the Orioles in his career. Baltimore had their issues of late but they did get back in the win column on Sunday to stay in the thick of the wild card race. Watkins has been up and down of late but he pitched well in the tough loss to the Cubs in his last start. The Orioles play solid ball at home and with the issues Giolito has had, give the upper hand to the hosts in this contest as the Orioles earn the win. |
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08-21-22 | Ravens -5 v. Cardinals | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 54 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units I just can't bet against the ravens in the preseason. They have now won 21 straight preseason games (19-1-1 ATS), as they won't lay down for anyone. They will want to win this game, as well. Even without their starters, I still have faith in the Ravens in this one. Tyler Huntley looked great last week and I see him having a huge day against this Arizona secondary. Arizona gave up 277 yards through the air last week, as the Ravens will be able to air it out in this one. I also see the Raven's defense putting more pressure on the Cardinal's starting QBs, as they won't be able to pick apart the Baltimore secondary. The Ravens finished last week's game with three sacks and three turnovers, as they were putting pressure on the Titans throughout that entire game. It didn't matter who was in the game, as they continued to dominate. Baltimore also showed their experience last week, as they went 2-3 in the red zone. They capitalize on their opportunities and they put pressure on their opponents. I don't expect to see either team's stars on the field and the Ravens are going to want this more than the Cardinals. |
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08-20-22 | Washington Commanders +5 v. Chiefs | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While the Chiefs are unquestionably the stronger team, they have far less to play for in this battle other than individual positional battles. For the Commanders, they will continue to try and grow the chemistry between Wentz and his new wideouts so I expect to see Wentz play at least through the first half. With the reduced preseason schedule the last two seasons, game two of the preseason takes on a much grander scale as teams try to tighten things up before resting their starters entirely in the final week. The Chiefs know what they have at quarterback and they also know that it is imperative that Mahomes is upright and ready to go for the regular season, not a meaningless preseason game in August. I expect Mahomes to play perhaps an additional series in this game but not much more than that. Andy Reid will keep it simple and keep his MVP signal-caller out of harm's way in this one. |
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08-20-22 | Broncos v. Bills -6 | 15-42 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units The Bills are seemingly all in with this game being treated as their legitimate dress rehearsal ahead of the regular season. Coach Sean McDermott has already stated that his starters will play a “healthy amount” on Saturday. So this isn’t a situation where Josh Allen and company play in a series or two and go have a seat on the bench. Buffalo is unleashing the hounds on Denver in this game. Additionally, the Bills are 6-1 their L7 NFLX game twos. |
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08-13-22 | Saints v. Texans +1 | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Smith's teams have generally done fairly well in the preseason and he certainly comes in with a handle on his defense after spending 2021 coaching the unit. In addition, I am confident that Mills sees more action than your typical #1 quarterback in this game as he tries to familiarize himself with new OC Pep Hamilton's playbook. I envision him playing at least two series if not close to the entire first half as the rebuilding Texans work out their new system. The Texans also have far more young players than the Saints that will see and need to see game action while the Saints will likely rest several key veterans. Look for Allen to sit Winston out in this one as there is no need to risk injury to the recovering quarterback. Dalton should give the Saints some solid looks in the first half at QB but, again, Allen may limit his snaps as well because he doesn't want to risk a position that hampered the Saints for much of 2021. Expect to see a lot of 2nd-year quarterback Ian Book for New Orleans. With that in mind, I like the Texans to come out on top in a game that should be a defensive struggle for two teams that should be far ahead of the curve on that side of the ball at this early stage. |
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08-12-22 | Packers +1 v. 49ers | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -110 | 218 h 0 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NFLX Game of the Year Green Bay was sent packing in the 2021 playoffs by a 13-10 home loss to the Niners in the Division Round in a game in which the Cheeseheads held Frisco to a season-low 212 total yards of offense – their fewest in 87 games under Kyle Shanahan – yet were STILL booted from the postseason. In addition, we like the fact that the Pack is 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in preseason openers. Given the fact that San Francisco is one of only two teams (Atlanta the other) that will face all three preseason foes that they downed in real games last season, expect the Packers to give the 49ers the boot tonight. Consider that Green Bay is 5-0 SUATS this time of the year against NFC West opposition. |
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08-11-22 | Titans v. Ravens -4.5 | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 193 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Baltimore’s John Harbaugh. Winner of 20 consecutive exhibition contests (18-1-1ATS) and counting, Harbaugh puts an emphasis on winning during the preseason like no other coach in the league. Sure, the Ravens placed 6 players on the PUP list prior to training camp, but it likely means more playing time for healthy vets. Remember, the Ravens are looking to bounce back from a 2021 season that saw them finish last in the AFC North with an 8-9 record. It all begins here when they improve to 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS in preseason game ones against a Titans team that has lost and failed to cover four straight preseason contests against AFC North foes. |
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08-06-22 | Nationals v. Phillies -1.5 | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Phillies will start Ranger Suarez on the mound. He has been solid this season, as he is (7-5) with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. In his last start, he pitched for 6.0 innings and didn't allow an earned run to the Pittsburgh Pirates. He kept them off the scoreboard and allowed his team to win the game late. Nationals will start Patrick Corbin on the mound. He has struggled this season, as he is (4-15) with a 6.57 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. He was lit up in his last start, as well. He only pitched for 4.1 innings but surrendered seven hits and four earned runs. The Mets hit him early and often, as he stood no chance in that matchup. |
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08-03-22 | Reds v. Marlins -1.5 | 0-3 | Win | 115 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Reds do not win games when Mike Minor is on the hill. They have lost in nine out of his ten starts on the season. The veteran has not been able to find a groove this season, he posted a disastrous 7.71 ERA in June and a 4.91 ERA last month. The Marlins will have no issues scoring against Minor. Marlins’ starter Sandy Alcantara is a reliable pitcher. The ace continues to dominate in most games and has conceded two or fewer runs in four out of his last five outings. Plus he features a stellar 2.86 career ERA against the Reds. |
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07-31-22 | A's v. White Sox -1.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chicago right-hander Dylan Cease (10-4, 2.03 ERA) will start today against the visiting Oakland Athletics and is eager to cap a sterling July with another solid start. Cease is 4-1 with an ERA of 0.61 in five starts this month after going 2-1 with a 0.33 ERA in five starts in June. That dominance wasn't enough to secure Cease a spot on the American League All-Star team, but he hardly sulked. Pitching against Cleveland on July 24 in his first start of the second half of the season, Cease scattered seven hits, walked one and struck out four in six shutout innings. Rookie Adam Oller will make his 12th appearance and seventh start, hoping to get a tough debut campaign turned around as he's 1-3 with an 8.07 ERA through 32.1 innings. |
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07-24-22 | Angels v. Braves -1.5 | 9-1 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Braves have completely rebounded from their sluggish start this season and now are less than a game away from the top spot in the NL East Division. Atlanta is also the 4th highest scoring offense in baseball and sends Anderson to the mound, who is undefeated in the month of July. The wheels have completely fallen off the Angels' season and they are no match for this Atlanta team in this spot. The Angels are scoring less than two runs per game over the course of this five-game losing streak and are giving up 6.8 runs per game in that same time span. |
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07-22-22 | Astros v. Mariners +1.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -160 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Astros’ starter Jose Urquidy has not been able to contain the Mariners' offense this season, allowing 15 runs in the three meetings spanning only 13 innings. Also, Mariners’ starter Marco Gonzales has seen plenty of the Astros this season and has kept them in check, conceding only six runs in 20.1 innings. Gonzales is especially sharp at home where he is sporting a 3.21 ERA. |
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07-14-22 | Dodgers v. Cardinals +1.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -120 | 2 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Dodgers will start left-hander Tyler Anderson (9-1, 3.15 ERA) in today's series finale. Anderson received a no-decision on Friday after allowing three runs on five hits in seven innings against the Chicago Cubs in his last start. Anderson cruised the first time through the Cubs' batting order, then struggled during his second turn. Anderson is 0-2 with a 7.90 ERA in three career starts against the Cardinals. Cardinals right-hander Dakota Hudson (6-5, 4.00) will get the start today. Hudson scattered two hits and walked two over six scoreless innings in a no-decision against the Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday. Hudson is 1-0 with a 1.08 ERA in four career outings (one start) against the Dodgers. |
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07-09-22 | Pirates v. Brewers -1.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 3 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Woodruff has looked like the pitcher that came into this season as a possible Cy Young candidate along with his teammate, and last year's NL winner, Corbin Burnes. He has only allowed 8 hits in the two starts since returning and has upped his pitch count from 76 to 94. I expect Woodruff to be completely restriction-free in this game and to keep the Pirates' poor hitting lineup at bay. Thompson has a solid ERA in the last month but struggles to get into the middle innings. Pittsburgh is also over 10 games below .500 on the road. |
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07-09-22 | Astros -1.5 v. A's | 2-3 | Loss | -164 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Oakland Athletics are the worst team in the Major Leagues and it’s hard to find any value on them as a result, even +1.5 is not worth it considering this starting pitching matchup. Astros’ starter Framber Valdez continues to silence his opposition, conceding a total of five runs in his last 20 innings of work. He also tossed a complete game in a 5-1 win in his only meeting against the A’s this season. Furthermore, the A’s were supposed to have Frankie Montas start this one but he has landed on the IL. The Astros will take advantage of rookie Zach Logue who has filed a 5.47 ERA in his limited action. Houston has won 9 out of their last 10 games and eight of those occurred by two or more runs. They swept Oakland in the lone series this season and should have no issues again in this one. |
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07-07-22 | Cardinals v. Braves -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Braves have won the first two games of this series, as they have won the last 6 games against the Cardinals. They are scoring the fourth-most runs per game and they have the 10th highest overall team batting average. They can score multiple different ways, as they will string together hits throughout this game and also hit a home run or two. They are averaging 1.52 per game, which is the second-highest average in the league. The Cardinals are cold right now, as well. They lost their previous series to the Phillies and they looked shaky in the first two games of this one. I just don't think Matthew Liberatore has what it takes to slow down this impressive offense. He currently has a 5.66 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP rating. |
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07-06-22 | Royals v. Astros -1.5 | 7-4 | Loss | -133 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Right-hander Cristian Javier (6-3, 2.58 ERA) is the scheduled starter for the Astros on Wednesday. He has been exceptional over his past two starts, recording 27 strikeouts against one hit and one walk while allowing one run over 14 innings in wins over the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels. Javier threw seven innings as part of a combined no-hitter against the Yankees on June 25 before recording a career-high 14 strikeouts against the Angels six days later. Javier has a 3.86 ERA and one save over two career relief appearances against the Royals. Right-hander Brad Keller (3-9, 4.24) has the starting assignment for the Royals on Wednesday. It will mark a club-high 16th start this season and the 99th of his career. Keller notched his team-leading eighth quality start against the Detroit Tigers on July 1, allowing five hits and two walks with five strikeouts over six scoreless innings in what was a 3-1 Royals win. Keller is 2-4 with a 4.24 ERA in seven road starts this season with wins in his past two outings away from Kansas City. Keller has faced Houston once previously, allowing three runs on nine hits and three walks, with one strikeout over six innings on June 17, 2018. He did not factor into the decision of a 7-4 loss. |
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07-04-22 | Royals v. Astros -1.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Rookie right-hander Jonathan Heasley (1-4, 5.20) is the scheduled starter for the Royals today. He took the loss in his outing last Tuesday against the Texas Rangers as he allowed a career-high seven runs on nine hits and two walks with three strikeouts over 3 2/3 innings. Heasley is winless over his past three starts, going 0-1 as he has given up 13 runs in 12 2/3 innings with a 9.24 ERA. He is 0-1 with a 5.01 ERA in five road starts this season. He will make his second career start against the Astros. He was the pitcher of record in the Royals' 7-4 loss on June 5, allowing three runs on seven hits and two walks with five strikeouts over six innings. |
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07-03-22 | Orioles +1.5 v. Twins | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Right-hander Tyler Wells (6-4, 3.23 ERA), a Round 15 pick in the 2016 MLB Draft by Minnesota, will face his old team for the fourth time since being picked up by Baltimore in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft. He is 1-0 with a 2.16 ERA in three career appearances and one start against the Twins. Wells had a 1.97 ERA in June and has won four consecutive starts and five of his last six. He comes in off a 9-2 victory at Seattle on Monday during which he allowed one run on one hit over five innings while striking out three. |
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06-14-22 | Braves -1.5 v. Nationals | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Braves will turn today to left-hander Max Fried (6-2, 2.64 ERA), who is coming off two of his best starts of the season. He threw eight shutout innings against the Colorado Rockies on June 3 in Denver, then allowed a run on eight hits with eight strikeouts and no walks over six innings in a 3-1 win over the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday. Atlanta is 8-2 in Fried's past 10 starts. However, Fried has had mixed success against the Nationals throughout his career. Washington will counter with 26-year-old right-hander Jackson Tetreault, who will make his major league debut. Manager Dave Martinez chose Tetreault over Josiah Gray, who was scratched from his start on Monday after the game's first pitch was pushed back due to a 93-minute rain delay. The Nationals have lost five of their past seven games. |