4* NBA Playoff Total of the Week on Bulls/Pacers OVER 187.5
We saw 172 total points scored in Game 3, but the Bulls and Pacers shot 38.9% and 37.9% respectively. We'll see much better shooting in this one.

Indiana knows it must play fast to have a shot, and down 0-3, it can play free and loose. The Pacers know they're not going to win this series but they want to steal a game very badly.

Also, the Bulls fit into a very lucrative "over the total" system. Consider that plays Over on all teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points, coming off a road win against a division rival and well rested team (playing only their 2nd game in 5 days) are 85-34 since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation have faced an average total of 185.1 and have combined with their opponent to score an average of 193.4 points. This system is 6-1 this season.

The Over is 6-1 in the Pacers' last 7 games as a home underdog and 15-5-1 in their last 21 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less. Bet the Over.

4* NBA "Total" Dominator on Cavs/Knicks UNDER 216
The Knicks have been well Over this number in their last 3. Also, the last 2 meetings in this series have gone well Over this number. Despite these things, odds makers have set the line at just 216. I smell something fishy.

NY has lost 11 straight games to the Cavs, including each of the season's first 3 meetings with the league's worst team. That is not sitting well and the Knicks know the only way to do something about it is to "D" up. I'm confident the "D" finally shows up against a Cavs' squad averaging just 94.1 ppg on the road. Cleveland has been held below the century mark in 12 of its last 14 games.

The Under is 9-2 in the Cavaliers' last 11 overall and 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog of 11.0 points or more. We'll bet the Under.

5* NBA "Total" Game of the Week on Warriors/Grizzlies UNDER 211.5
The Warriors and Grizzlies have combined for at least 213 points in each of their last 8 meetings and yet the books opened with an over/under line of 210. In addition, Golden State has been Over this number in each of its last 4 games and Memphis was Over it in its last game. I smell a rat.

Naturally, the public is all over the Over, which is precisely where the books want it. I won't hesitate to go against the grain, avoiding what is certainly a bookmaker trap.

Golden State has the perception of a high-scoring team, but it hasn't been nearly as good offensively on the road. As a result, the Warriors are 24-14 Under in road games this season. They are also 37-23 Under in a road game when the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 2 seasons.

It is also to our benefit that the Warriors are coming off a tiring overtime game last night. That's because the Under is 5-1 in the Warriors' last 6 games when playing without a day of rest. Also, the Under is 16-3 when the Warriors are playing their 2nd road game in 2 days over the last 2 seasons.

Also, Memphis has held 4 of its last 5 foes under the century mark. It has also held its opponents to an average of 87.3 points in its last 4 home games. With 2 full days of rest to gear up for this one, I expect the Grizzlies to be very successful on the defensive end against a tired Warriors squad. We'll pound the Under tonight.

4* NBA "Total" Dominator on Celtics/Pacers OVER 188
The Indiana Pacers will have an excellent chance to win this game because they should be able to dictate the tempo, which should result in this one going over the number.

Motivated by back-to-back poor offensive performances, and a trio of poor offensive showings against Boston this season, expect Indiana to really look to push the pace early in this one. Plus, Boston just played yesterday, so it will have a much more difficult time staying in front of the fresher Pacers.

Going to the numbers we find that Boston is 13-2 Over off a road no-cover where it won straight up as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. We are seeing an average of 200.8 total points scored in this situation. Bean Town is also 17-5 Over in its last 22 road games after allowing 85 points or less in 2 straight games. We are seeing an average of 196.6 total points scored in these spots.

It is also worth noting that the Over is 5-0 in the Pacers' last 5 games as a home underdog, 6-1 in their last 7 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 9-3 in their last 12 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Take the Over tonight.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Warriors/Wizards OVER 211
After struggling offensively the past couple games, the Wizards should have no trouble scoring on the Warriors tonight. The Warriors are one of the worst defensive teams in the league, allowing 107.3 ppg on the road. In addition, fatigued legs are not conducive to playing good defense, and the Warriors will be fatigued having just played last night.

We all know what Golden State is capable offensively, and it shouldn't have any trouble scoring the ball against a Wizards squad that has allowed an average of 110.0 ppg over their last 8 games.

The Over is 5-0 in the Warriors' last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. The Over is 4-0 in the Wizards' last 4 games following an ATS loss and 4-0 in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Bet the Over.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Bobcats/Bulls UNDER 185
These teams combined for 187 points when they met in Charlotte last Wednesday. The Bulls allowed 96 points in a losing effort but we can expect a much better defensive performance on their home floor tonight. Chicago is only allowing 91.0 ppg at home this season and Charlotte is only scoring 90.4 ppg on the road.

One thing the Bulls have done in revenge games is picked up their defensive intensity. In fact, Chicago is 11-1 Under this season when revenging a road loss to an opponents. The Bulls have held the opposition to just 87.5 points on average in this situation. We have only seen a total of 180.4 points scored on average in these games.

It is also worth noting that the Under is 15-4-2 in the Bobcats' last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, including 7-1-1 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Bet the Under.

4* NBA on TNT Total of the Month on Knicks/Magic UNDER 213
New York is 0-2 against Boston and 0-2 against Miami. Looking for a signature win against an Eastern Conference powerhouse, the Knicks know they must bring the "D" tonight.

We can normally count on strong defensive performances from the Magic, which are only allowing 91.1 ppg at home this season. It is worth noting that the Under is 15-5-1 in the Magic's last 21 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. It is also worth noting that the Under is 3-0-1 in the Knicks' last 4 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.

Getting a little more specific, we find that Orlando is 12-3 Under as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points since the beginning of last season. We are only seeing 185.2 total points scored in these games.

There's sure to be playoff intensity tonight, and I expect it to result in the Under.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Mavs/Thunder UNDER 203.5
The fact that Dallas won the season's first meeting at OKC plays right into our hands here. Consider that plays Under on all teams when the total is greater than or equal to 200 revenging a straight up loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite, provided that team has won 60-75% or more of its games on the season, are 87-43 the last 5 seasons (66.9%). This system is already 2-0 this season.

The Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these teams in Oklahoma City. Odds makers have set the bar too high tonight. Bet the Under.

5* NBA Total of the Month on Blazers/Suns OVER 204.5
With the Suns out to avenge Tuesday's loss to Portland, and with the Blazers having just played last night, I love our chances with the Over. We saw 205 total points scored in Tuesday's matchup, and Blazers starting point guard Andre Miller didn't play in that game. He has thrived when playing at Phoenix, scoring 22.8 points and 8.0 assists in his last five visits.

Portland is a good defensive team, but it won't be able to bring the same energy to the defensive end tonight after just playing a game last night. In fact, the Over is 5-2 in the Trail Blazers' last 7 games playing on 0 days rest and 9-2 in their last 11 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day.

The Over is 14-3 in the Suns' last 17 games when playing on 1 day of rest. Phoenix is also a perfect 8-0 Over after playing a home game this season. We are seeing 230.4 totals points on average in this situation. Bet the Over.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Heat/Mavs UNDER 189
Right away I love the fact that plays Under on any team off a road win versus a division rival, against an opponent coming off a home win, are 6-1 this season.

In addition, plays Under on road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points off a home win, extremely tired team playing their 3rd game in 4 days, are 76-39 the last 5 seasons, including 2-0 already this season. We are only seeing 183 total points scored on average in this situation.

Miami is 15-3 Under in road games where the total is between 185 and 189.5 points over the last 3 seasons, and we are only seeing an average of 179.1 total points in these games. Lastly, the Under is 15-5-1 in the Mavericks' last 21 home games. Expect a hard-fought defensive battle between two of the best defensive teams in the league to result in the Under.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Knicks/Bobcats UNDER 206.5
These 2 teams combined for 217 points in last night's meeting, but that certainly hasn't been the norm in this showdown. Prior to that game, 5 straight had easily found their way under this number. I expect Charlotte to tighten the screws defensively to keep this one under tonight.

This is a terrific unders situation. In fact, plays Under on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (Charlotte in this case) after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, against an opponent that has gone over the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, are 70-33 the last 5 seasons. Bet the Under.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator (ESPN) Suns/Heat UNDER 209
The Heat have played to the Over in 6 straight. Plus, they are playing the Suns, who have annually been among the highest scoring teams in the NBA since Steve Nash landed in the desert. Because of the public perception associated with the 2 aforementioned facts, odds makers have purposely set the bar too high tonight. They are looking to trap the public, but we won't bite.

Miami held each of its first 7 opponents to 97 or fewer points. It held 5 of those below 90. Since, the Heat have given up 100 or more in 3 straight. I expect to see a defensive effort resembling the first 7 tonight. Miami is well rested, having not played since the 13th. Plus, it is facing a Phoenix team that will be playing its 4th game in 6 days.

In addition, Phoenix becomes an even more perimeter oriented team with the injury to Robin Lopez. Miami should have a lot of defensive success against a Suns team that will have to settle for a lot of contested jump shots. Bet the Under tonight.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on T-Wolves/Hawks OVER 204.5
Minnesota has played to the Under in 4 straight while facing totals of 214.5 or higher. Now, the number has been lowered by double digits. This creates excellent line value with the Over, especially since the Hawks will be ready to take out the frustration of a 4-game skid on an inferior opponent.

We saw 216 total points scored when these teams met last week. Plus, Minnesota is allowing 112.3 points on the road this season, and Atlanta is 21-0 OVER its last 21 home games when its scores 105 or more points. We are seeing an average of 218.2 total points scored in these 21 games. Bet the Over.

5* NBA Finals Total of the Year on Lakers/Celtics UNDER 190.5
In the last two games of this series, neither team has shot better than 44.7 percent. I expect the defensive intensity to remain high in Game 4 with the Celtics especially taking things up another notch as this is a must-win game for them. As a result, I expect to see Game 4 come in well Under the number as well. The Lakers are 9-1 Under after allowing 85 points or less this season. Boston is 12-4 Under when revenging a home loss vs. an opponent this season. In addition, the Under is a perfect 4-0 in the Celtics' last 4 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Also, we can't overlook how good of a job the Lakers are doing of getting back on defense to slow down Boston's transition game. Defense wins championships and both of these teams know that. Defense should also keep us Under this number. Best of Luck!

5* NBA Playoffs "Total" Dominator on Celtics/Magic UNDER 189.5
This matchup has been an Unders machine as the Celtics are one of the few teams in the NBA that have proven they can defend the Magic consistently. In fact, we have seen 7 of the last 8 meetings play to the Under and 9 of the last 12 meetings in Orlando finish Under. And I also love the fact that road teams with a total of 180 to 189.5 points revenging a same season loss versus an opponent, if that opponent is off 2 or more consecutive road wins, are 72-36 to the Under since 1996, including 18-5 over the last 3 seasons and a perfect 1-0 this season. We are only seeing 181.1 total points scored on average in these games. The Under is 7-1 in the Celtics' last 8 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record and also 7-1 in the Magic's last 8 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Pound the Under.

5* NBA Playoffs "Total" Dominator (ESPN) on Cavs/Celtics UNDER 196.5
Boston doesn't want to go back to Cleveland for a Game 7, and Cleveland is fighting for its playoff life. In other words, we can expect a very physical, defensive minded Game 6 in Boston tonight. Cleveland just gave up 120 points on its home floor so you can bet it will be tightening the screws defensively. And we can't ignore the fact that the Under is 28-13 in the Celtics' last 41 games following a win of more than 10 points. In addition, Boston is on a 17-4 Unders run after a huge blowout win by 30 or more, and we are only seeing 182.7 total points scored on average in these spots. Also, the Under is 7-1 in the Cavaliers' last 8 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points and 26-12 in their last 38 games following a double-digit loss at home. Pound the Under.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Lakers/Jazz UNDER 207
We missed with the Under 203 in Game 3 as the Lakers and the Jazz combined to make 23 3-point shots. To put this in further perspective, these 2 teams only average a total of 12 makes on the season. In other words, the Lakers and Jazz put 33 more points on the board from behind the 3-point line than they normally get. So if they had just hit their averages, we only would have seen 188 points scored in Game 3. With the total having been raised to 207, and with it being highly unlikely that both teams will find so much success behind the 3-point line in Game 4, I love our chances with the Under. I mean, there's no way Kyle Korver is going 9 of 10 from the field and 5 of 5 from beyond the arc in this game. I don't think there's any way Ron Artest even goes 4 of 7 from deep in this game. We've seen 4 of the last 5 in this series go Under in Utah. We also can't overlook the fact that Utah is on a 17-4 Unders run in the 4th game of a playoff series, and we are only seeing 184.1 total points scored on average in these game. Bet the Under.

3* NBA Playoffs "Total" Dominator on Lakers/Jazz UNDER 203
The first two games of this series have gone over the number, the under is still 7-2 in the last 9 meetings. It is also a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Utah. This is the first game this series where the total has been listed at over 200 points and that is significant because the Lakers are 14-6 Under when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season, and we are only seeing 195.2 total points scored on average in these games. In addition, Utah is 22-11 Under in home games where the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 2 seasons, and we are seeing an average total score of just 201.8 points in these games. It is also worth noting that the Lakers are 12-4 Under as a road underdog this season, and we are only seeing 188.6 total points scored in this situation on average. With both teams extremely fresh after several days of rest, I expect them both to really get after it on the defensive end tonight. Bet the Under.

5* NBA Playoffs Total of the Month on Jazz/Lakers UNDER 199
7 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams have finished Under the number with Game 1 of this series finally breaking the Unders streak. Game 1 only finished a few points over the number despite the Jazz allowing the Lakers to shoot over 53 percent from the field. I don't see that happening again tonight. Plus, the Lakers are well-known for playing a slower pace in the postseason than they do in the regular season. As a result, the Under is 20-8 in the Lakers' last 28 playoff games as a favorite and 16-5 in their last 21 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Under is also 12-5 in the Lakers' last 17 home games. The fact that odds makers have come back with basically the same line that was set for Game 1, despite that game going over, tells me that they are looking for action on the over. And they are getting it. We'll gladly go against the grain as both of these teams really buckle down defensively in what should be a very intense Game 2. Bet the Under.

3* NBA Playoffs "Total" Dominator on Suns/Blazers UNDER 204.5
Each of the first two games in this series have gone Over, and yet the total for Game 3 is right around where it has been in each of the first two games. This tells me that odds makers are looking for action to come in on the Over, and they are getting it. Portland, a team that takes pride in its defense, was absolutely embarrassed in Game 2, giving up 119 points to the Suns and allowing them to shoot 52.3% from the field. Expect the Blazers to be extremely motivated to get after it on the defensive end after such a poor performance. In fact, Portland is 16-5 Under after allowing 110 points or more over the last 3 seasons, and it is only allowing 89.7 points on average in these spots. Also, Phoenix is 8-1 Under in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season, and we are only seeing a total of 201.6 points scored on average in these spots. Bet the Under.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Magic/Hawks UNDER 196
We've seen the last 4 meetings between these two teams finish Under the number with the average combined score in these games totaling just 180.8 points. This matchup will feel like a playoff game as the defensive intensity should increase. The fact that Orlando crushed the Hawks by 18 the last time these two teams met will have Atlanta out for blood tonight. Revenge plays in our favor here as Atlanta is 19-6 Under when revenging a road loss of 10 points or more versus an opponent over the last 2 seasons, and we are only seeing 184.8 total points scored in these spots on average. Plus, Atlanta is 23-12 Under vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons, and we are only seeing an average of 182.3 points scored in these games. Yes, Orlando has been scoring the rock lately, but it is 16-4 Under after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons, and we are only seeing an average of 191.3 points scored in these spots. We'll take the Under tonight.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Lakers/Kings UNDER 206
Plays Under on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA), tired team playing its 3rd road game in 5 days, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season, are 130-82 since 1996, including 63-33 the last 3 seasons. The Lakers just played a fast-paced game in Golden State last night so they aren't going to have the energy to run and gun again here. Expect the Lakers to slow the pace as much as possible, operating in the half court offensively. The Lakers are also 24-11 Under when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons, and we are only seeing 199.8 points scored in the games on average. The Under is also 5-0 in the Lakers' last 5 games following an ATS loss and 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. We'll bet the Under.

4* Major NBA "Total" Public Massacre on Mavericks/Timberwolves UNDER 207
The public money is coming in on the Over in this matchup tonight because Dallas has played to the Over in 6 of its last 7 and Minnesota in 3 straight. Also, we have seen high-scoring affairs the last two times these teams have faced off. But I don't expect these trends to hold up tonight. The Under is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings between these two sides, including a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Minnesota. Furthermore, Dallas is extremely tired right now having played a ton of games in few days since the All-Star break. Also, the average total score in Mavs road games this season is 199.7 points. In T-Wolves home games, it's 199.1 points. These two teams have played much lower scoring games in Minnesota and we expect this trend to continue tonight.

3* Sunday NBA "Total" Dominator on Thunder/Kings UNDER 202.5
These two teams just played Tuesday in OKC and we saw them combine for 220 points. The Thunder gave up 107 points in that game and then they gave up 119 to Denver the next night. Kevin Durant spoke about how disappointed he was with the team's defensive effort in those games, and rightfully so, as the Thunder have only been allowing 96.4 points this season. They stepped up against the Clippers Friday, holding them to just 87 points, and I expect them to bring the "D" again tonight. Prior to Tuesday's encounter, the three previous meetings had all come in Under 200 points. Plus, the Kings have scored 98 or fewer points in 7 of their last 10 games so their offense clearly isn't what it was prior to trading Kevin Martin. The Under is also 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in Sacramento between these two teams. Take the Under.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Kings/Thunder UNDER 203
We've seen each of the last three meetings between these two teams coming in under the number with scores of 197, 191 and 199, and I'm expecting this one to stay under 200 as well. OKC is coming off a blowout win over Toronto, and it has Denver up next, but I don't believe the Thunder will get caught looking ahead here because they will be looking to avenge a loss to Sacramento. That means we can expect to see Oklahoma City's rock solid defense that is only allowing 95.2 ppg at home. The Kings have really struggled to score on the road, tallying scores of just 98, 89 and 88 in their last 3 road games. In fact, the Kings have been held to 98 or fewer points in 6 of their last 7 games and the Under is 5-2 in those games as a result. Sac is 9-1 Under on Tuesday nights this season and 12-3 Under in road games against Northwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons. The Under is also 18-7-1 in the Thunder's last 26 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Bet the Under.

5* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Suns/Thunder UNDER 204
Plays Under on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200, Phoenix in this case; a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team, in February games, are a perfect 15-0 this season. With Steve Nash not playing tonight, the Suns won't have as much success pushing the pace and their pick-n-roll game won't be nearly as smooth. Plus, Phoenix is 7-0 Under in the second half of the season this season and 10-0 Under in road games on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons. We'll bet the Under here.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator (ABC) on Cavs/Magic UNDER 195
I expect a very physical defensive battle as this game takes on the feel of a playoff game Sunday afternoon. After allowing 106 points or more in each of its last 3 games, expect a Cleveland team only allowing 94.9 ppg on the season to really clamp down on the defensive end. Orlando will be equally motivated to "D" up after allowing 115 points to the Cavs just 10 days ago. The Magic are only allowing 94.2 ppg at home this season. This is a very strong system as it applies to both teams: plays Under on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, extremely well rested team playing 3 or less games in 10 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, are 38-13 the last 5 seasons, including a perfect 2-0 already this season. The average total posted in these games has been 195 and we are only seeing a total of 187.1 points scored on average. Bet the Under.

5* Never Lost NBA "Total" Dominator on Suns/Mavs UNDER 217.5
Plays Under on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200, Phoenix in this case; a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team, in February games are 51-15 the last 5 seasons including a Perfect 10-0 this season. In addition, plays Under on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200, Dallas in this case; cold team failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of their last 15, well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, are 26-4 since 1996 and 10-1 the last 3 seasons. With the Mavs still adjusting to their new teammates, I don't think they will have enough offensive cohesiveness to push this one over the number.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Mavs/Thunder UNDER 195
The Mavericks have acquired DeShawn Stevenson, Brendan Haywood and Caron Butler and they are expected to see action right away. This is going to create some chemistry problems initially, especially on the offensive end, and this is the chief reason why I think this one comes in Under the number tonight. Plus, I like the fact that plays Under on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, well rested team playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%), are 43-18 since 1996, including 11-2 over the last 3 seasons. The Under is also 9-1-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams played in Seattle/Oklahoma City and 10-2 in the Thunder's last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. We'll bet the Under.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Kings/Knicks UNDER 215.5
The Kings are 7-0 Under on Tuesday nights this season and we are only seeing 196.2 points in these games. I think it no coincidence either as the Kings are just 6-17 ATS on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons while only scoring 98.1 points in these games. Tuesday is a flat night for this team, most likely because it is often times their first game of the week. The Under is also 7-1 in the Knicks' last 8 Tuesday games and 5-0 in their last 5 games when playing on 2 days rest. NY is also 10-1 Under after trailing in its previous game by 20 or more points at the half over the last 3 seasons and Sac is 11-1 Under after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. We'll take the Under here.

3* NBA on TNT "Total" Dominator on Spurs/Lakers UNDER 194
With Andrew Bynum listed as doubtful and with Kobe Bryant clearly not at 100 percent (listed as questionable), we can't expect to see the Laker offense hitting on all cylinders tonight. Plus, these two teams always know that it is a possibility they could see each other in the postseason so these games tend to mirror the postseason in terms of defensive intensity. That's why we've seen so many low-scoring contests. The Under is a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Los Angeles and 7-2 in the last 9 meetings overall. The Under is also 6-0 in the Spurs' last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 and 5-1 in their last 6 road games period. Over the last 80 games between these two teams, we have seen an average combined score of just 187 points. And in the last 6 meetings in LA, we are only seeing an average of 186 combined points. We'll take the Under.

5* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year (ESPN) on Nuggets/Lakers UNDER 202.5
The Under is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings between these two teams, including 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in LA. The Under is also 6-1 in the Nuggets' last 7 road games and 5-0 in the Lakers' last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. The last time these two teams met, clear back in November, we only saw 184 total points scored with the Nuggets holding the Lakers to just 79 points. The Lakers have not soon forgotten that embarrassing loss and I expect them to really buckle down on the defensive end tonight. But on top of the motivation, the star power in this matchup is banged up. The Nuggets are expected to be without Carmelo Anthony once again and Kobe Bryant is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. We'll pound the Under.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Bobcats/Trail Blazers UNDER 189.5
Portland has gone over in 6 straight and Charlotte is 5-0-1 Over in its last 6 and this has elevated tonight's line. This matchup has typically been a low scoring one. In fact, we haven't seen a total set this high between these two teams since 2007, and that line was just 190. In the last two meetings, we have seen lines of 179.5 and 171 respectively, and we have seen total scores of just 162 and 154. Both of these teams prefer to play in the half court, and that

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Warriors/Thunder UNDER 214
The Under is a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams when the Warriors have visited the Thunder and I fully expect this trend to continue. The Thunder prefer to play at a slower pace, averaging just 98.7 ppg at home, and they are strong defensively, allowing only 94.7 ppg at home. In fact, OKC is even 15-5 Under in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots per game over the last 2 seasons, and we are only seeing an average of 196.5 points scored in these spots. The Thunder enter on a 6-1 Unders run and the Warriors are 4-1 Under in their last 5 road games. Bet the Under.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Hawks/Magic UNDER 193.5
Each of the last 3 meetings between these teams have finished Under the number while averaging only 177.7 combined points scored. Revenge is a great defensive motivator. In fact, Atlanta is on a 25-7 Unders run when revenging a loss of 10 points, and we are only seeing 184.7 combined points in these games. The Under is also a perfect 8-0 in the Magic's last 8 games playing on 1 day's rest and 7-1-1 in the Hawks' last 9 games following a S.U. win. Bet the Under.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Lakers/76ers UNDER 204.5
I expect these two teams to keep this total Under the 200 mark tonight. The Lakers are 10-2 Under after a blowout win by 15 points or more this season, with the average total score coming in at just 190.1 in these spots. After an easy win over Indiana, the Lakers will be much more concerned about being fresh for their next game against Boston than they will about hammering the 76ers. Plus, this is the Lakers 6th straight road game so I expect Phil Jackson to give his bench plenty of minutes tonight, and that bench hasn't been getting the job done over the course of the season. Philly has played to the Under in 5 straight and 8 of its last 9 games as it has been held under the century mark in 7 of its last 9 contests. The Under is also 6-0 in the 76ers' last 6 home games. We'll take the Under here.

5* NBA on TNT Total of the Year on Celtics/Magic UNDER 190
This matchup has been an Unders machine with the last 6 meetings playing to the Under and 6 of the last 7 meetings in Orlando coming in Under the number. I fully expect this trend to continue this evening as these two Eastern Conference powers engage in a defensive battle. The Magic are struggling from the field, and as a result, we've seen them play to the Under in 5 of their last 6 and 8 of their last 10. Boston has played to the Under in 4 of its last 5 as well. One thing we can usually count on is Boston bringing the "D" against top notch competition, especially now that K.G. is back. In fact, Boston is 11-1 Under in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons and we are only seeing an average of 177.8 points scored in the games. The Under is also 5-0 in the Magic's last 5 games playing on 2 day's rest, 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record, and 6-0 in the Celtics' last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Under.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Bucks/Mavs UNDER 198
This matchup has seen a lot of Overs in recent years, but tonight's situation looks very favorable to the Under. First off Milwaukee is 9-4 to the Under in its last 13 road games. Secondly, plays Under on any team, Milwaukee in this case, after a huge blowout win by 30 or more, against an opponent that led by at least 15 points at halftime in its last game, are 15-1 over the last 3 seasons. And when the team is off a blowout win by just 20 or more points in the above situation, the Under is 103-48 since 1996. Both of these teams had ridiculous shooting percentages from the floor in their last games, better than 57%. That won't happen again tonight. Bet the Under.

5* NBA "Total" Dominator of the Month on Blazers/Celtics UNDER 185
When Kevin Garnett went down with an injury, the Boston Celtics lost their identity as a shutdown defensive team. Well guess who's back? Garnett returns to the lineup tonight and I expect his presence to provide the C's with a big lift no matter how much he plays. Portland has been a strong defensive team on the road, only allowing 93.2 ppg, but it hasn't been able to do much on the offensive end, scoring only 93.8 ppg. With Brandon Roy not in the lineup tonight, I expect the Blazers to struggle offensively against a Celtics squad primed and ready to dig in on the defensive end. The Blazers are really hurting on the interior with both Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla's absences leaving them paper thin. Expect Boston to really slow this game down to take advantage of scoring opportunities inside tonight. Portland is going to want to make this game a track meet and I just don't see the Celtics letting the Blazers control the tempo on their home floor. Each of these two teams have played to the Under in 3 straight and the last two head-to-head matchups have averaged only 174 points. We'll take the Under.

3* NBA "Total" Bailout on Bulls/Clippers UNDER 195
The Bulls have been an Unders machine on the road at 11-6-1 to the Under this season. Meanwhile, the Clippers have been an Unders machine at home, going 16-6 Under. The last time these two teams met in LA we only saw 170 points put up on the board while facing a similar number (196). With that in mind, we should be seeing a lower number tonight, but the Clippers have elevated the line by playing to the Over in 5 straight. The Clippers are also 11-3 Under in home games where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season with the average combined score totaling just 188 points in those games. Take the Under.

5* NBA "Total" Dominator on Heat/Bobcats UNDER 191
This system can't be ignored tonight: Plays Under on any team, Miami in this case, after a blowout win by 30 or more points against an opponent which led in its previous game by 15 or more points at the half, are 14-1 the last 3 seasons (already 2-0 this season). Charlotte is the best defensive team in the NBA, allowing only 92.9 ppg, and that number goes down to 91 ppg when playing at home. Both of these teams have played some high scoring games of late, but that is because they were playing teams that prefer to play uptempo basketball. These two teams prefer to play in the half court. Bet the Under.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Suns/Bobcats UNDER 208
With both of these teams playing last night, fatigue figures to be an issue, especially for a Suns team which relies on its uptempo game. Expect the Bobcats to slow the pace, and also for each team's shooting percentage to suffer due to tired legs. The Suns are 13-8 to the Under on the road this season and 13-5 Under against the Eastern Conference. Charlotte is one of the elite defensive teams in the NBA this season, holding its opponents to just 90.0 ppg at home. The Under is also 9-1 in the 'Suns last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bet the Under.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Bucks/Warriors OVER 216
The Bucks have lost 3 in a row so you can count on then going after a "W" hard tonight. Likewise, the Warriors have lost 2 in a row, so they will be equally motivated to win. With both of these teams having had a day to rest, and in highly motivated spots, I anticipate a lot of points being put up on the scoreboard tonight. When these teams faced off earlier this season, we saw 254 total points. That's no aberration either as the last meeting last season between these two teams saw 247 total points. In fact, the Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings. Golden state lost the first meeting between these two teams this season to set a solid Over situation here. Plays Over on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210, revenging a loss vs. an opponent and coming off an upset loss as a favorite, are 45-18 the last 5 seasons. The average posted total in these spots has been 217.2 points, and we are seeing an average combined score of 222.3 points. Bet the Over.

3* NBA "Total" Line Mistake on Spurs/Bobcats UNDER 189
We'll take the Under tonight in a battle of top 5 scoring defenses. Plus, both of these teams prefer to play in the half court on the offensive end. The Under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings and 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Charlotte. These two teams haven't topped 189 points in 11 meetings dating back to 2005. Not much else needs to be said here. I think we are getting pretty good value with this line.

4* Major NBA on TNT "Total" Dominator on Bulls/Celtics OVER 194
We played on the Over with the Celtics last night as they combined with the Nets to beat the total by 11 points. The Celtics are now 6-1 to the Over their last 7 games, and I'll ride the Over with them again here. Plus, the Bulls are 5-2-1 to the Over in their last 8 games. The Bulls and the Celtics have been an Overs machine whenever they have gotten together. In fact, the Over is a perfect 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Boston in this series and 5-1 in the last 6 meetings overall. Going back 3 seasons, we've seen this matchup go 11-3-2 to the Over, including 8-1 to the Over in Boston. A big key tonight is that Boston is playing without Kevin Garnett and Rasheed Wallace so it will be forced to play small ball. And when the Celtics play small ball, they score a lot more points. That's why the Bulls/Celtics series was such a high scoring one in last year's playoffs when Garnett was sidelined. While Boston is known for being one of the league's better defensive teams, it has struggled in KG's absence. In fact, the Celtics have allowed their opponents to score 102 or more points in 5 of their last 8 games. The Bulls have struggled to score the basketball this season, but they are improving in that area. The Bulls have now scored 101 or more points in 5 of their last 8 games. Lastly, Chicago is 18-5 Over versus very good teams outscoring their opponents by 6 or more points per game over the last 2 seasons. Take the Over.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator of the Week on Celtics/Nets OVER 187
Boston has played to the Over in 5 of its last 6 games as its defense is not the same without Kevin Garnett on the floor. This line opened at 190, and the fact that it has been bet down to where we see it now creates additional value in taking the Over. We only saw 162 points in the first meeting between these two teams this season, but keep in mind that Harris, Lee, Dooling, Douglas-Roberts and Yi Jianlian missed that game. That means that 66.1 points were missing from the Nets' lineup. With all those guys expected to be on the floor tonight, I expect New Jersey to provide enough of a scoring punch to push this one Over.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Bobcats/Knicks UNDER 199.5
This line opened at 197, but has been bet up to 199.5, and it is holding right there for now as the books are begging for more action on the Over. But the Over isn't justified tonight. These two teams just played in New York on December 20th and we saw only 192 combined points. They played in Charlotte on December 15th and we saw only 181 combined points. Those lines closed at 196 and 197 respectively and the books didn't hesitate to come right back with the same number, knowing the public would be all over the Over after seeing them play high scoring games. Plays Under on home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential), after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games, are 44-16 the last 5 seasons. The average posted total in these games has been 195.3 and the average total score has been 188.2. The Under gets the call here.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Celtics/Heat UNDER 188.5
I'm expecting a defensive battle in Miami tonight. The Heat have played to the Under in 6 of their last 7 games and I expect this trend to continue against a Celtics team ready to clamp down on the defensive end following a lengthy 3-day layoff. The Under is 12-3-1 in the Celtics' last 16 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game and 12-4 in the Heat's last 16 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Heat are only allowing 93.2 ppg at home while the Celtics are only giving up 92.2 ppg on the road for a total of 185.4 points. This tells me we are getting a few extra points of value. With both of these teams' preferring to play in the half court, we'll take the Under tonight.

3* NBA "Total" Bailout on Rockets/Lakers UNDER 199.5
The Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams and also 5-1 in the last 6 meetings at the Staples Center. While LA has been on a scoring spree lately, we can't lose sight of the fact that it has been playing uptempo teams that don't play much defense (Sacramento, Phoenix, Golden State, Sacramento). Houston has played to the Under in 5 of its last 6 games, failing to reach the century mark in all 5 of those games that went Under. Plus, Plays Under on any team (LA) after 5 or more consecutive overs, a good team outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, are 117-67 since 1996. Bet the Under.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Magic/Pacers UNDER 210
The Under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings in this series in Indiana. The Under is 13-6 in the Magic's last 19 road games and 6-1 in their last 7 games following a loss. The Under is also 8-2 in the Pacers' last 10 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. Both of these teams are coming off poor performance and I expect both to clamp down on the defensive end tonight. Bet the Under.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Mavs/Lakers UNDER 200
I have found a lot of ammo to support the Under here. The Lakers are 8-0 Under as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score in these games totaling just 190.6 points. The Lakers are also 20-6 Under in Sunday games over the last 2 seasons. The Under is 4-0 in the Mavericks' last 4 road games and 21-10 in their last 31 Sunday games. These two teams combined for just 174 points in the season's first meeting and I expect another highly competitive defensive battle here. I also like the fact that the public is all over the Over. We'll go against the grain and get the cash.

5* NBA Total of the Week on Grizzlies/Pacers UNDER 208
The Pacers have fell short of the century mark in 7 straight games now and it is going to be very difficult for them to get there tonight after leaving it all out on the floor only to come up short in Chicago last night. This matchup has been an Unders machine with 8 of the last 10 games played in Indiana coming in Under the number. Plus, the Under is 7-1 in the Pacers' last 8 games playing on 0 days rest. Indiana isn't the same high scoring team this season because of its injury issues. That's why it is 14-6 Under when the total is greater than or equal to 200 this season, and we are only seeing a 203.6 combined points scored in these games. We'll bet the Under tonight.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Rockets/Magic UNDER 200.5
Good Unders spot here as Houston put up a lot of points last night and I don't think it can do it again against a Magic team that is very good defensively and will likely be looking ahead to a Christmas game with Boston. The last 9 times these teams have faced off, the final score has been under the 200 mark. Bet the Under.

3* NBA "Total" *Crunch Time Bailout* on Wizards/Clippers OVER 193.5
The Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams and I expect this trend to continue tonight. Washington has a very talented offensive lineup and it is starting to show as the Wiz have scored 102 or more points in 5 of their last 6 games. Defense is the issue with Washington right now, and during this same stretch it has allowed 102 or more points in 5 of 6 games. The Over is also 25-11 in the Wizards' last 36 vs. the NBA Pacific. Expect Washington's offense to stay sharp as it goes after a much needed win tonight, but also expect its defense to continue to struggle as it is allowing 101.2 ppg. We'll bet the Over.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Warriors/76ers UNDER 211.5
Odds makers have set the bar too high here as this is not the same high-scoring Warriors team of a year ago, especially on the road where they have played to the Under in 4 straight while only besting the 100-point mark 1 time during this stretch. Philly is only averaging 91.3 ppg at home on the season and has now played to the Under in 3 straight while failing to score more than 91 points during this stretch. It is worth nothing that the 76ers are 8-3 Under at home this season. Also, Philly is 17-4 Under after playing 2 consecutive home games since the beginning of last season with the average score totaling just 185.7 points. Lastly, the Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Philadelphia between these two teams. Bet the Under.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Suns/Nuggets OVER 225.5
We've seen these two teams combine for 232 and 233 points in each of their last two games and I expect another high scoring affair tonight. In fact, the Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings, including 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Denver. The Nuggets have been held under the 100-point mark in 3 straight games so they will really look to push the pace in their return home tonight where they are averaging 117.2 ppg. We'll take the Over.

5* NBA Total of the Week on Blazers/Cavs UNDER 187.5
The public is all over the over, driving this line up from its opening mark of 184. Right away, you have to like the Under here when you consider that plays Under on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), in December games, are 24-4 the last 5 seasons (85.7%). You also have to like the fact that Portland is 14-3 Under in road games on Friday nights over the last 3 seasons. The Under is also 7-1 in the Trail Blazers' last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. I expect a very physical, defensive battle resulting in the Under coming through for us tonight.

4* NBA Total Dominator on Warriors/Nets UNDER 219

Way too many points tonight for a New Jersey team that is only scoring 88.2 ppg at home on less than 40% shooting and 26.5% shooting from behind the arc. I know the Warriors like to get out and run as evidenced by their 114 ppg against on the year, but the Nets don't have the fire power to keep up with a high-scoring game, and they have now won two out of their last three. I think this means they want to keep up their hot streak to get out of the cellar as the laughing stock of the NBA. I think they slow the pace down to keep this one close so go with the UNDER.

4* Major NBA "Total" Revenger on Bucks/Celtics UNDER 195.5
This line opened at 191 and has been bet all the way up to where we see it now as the public is pounding the Over. I already like the Under at its opening line and this line move has created additional value. Boston is only allowing 90.6 ppg and I can't see a Bucks team that has struggled to score the rock on the road all season (just 93.6 ppg) getting loose for a big night here. Boston went through a little 3-game spell where it forgot how to play defense but since the Celtics have held their last 4 opponents to 90 or fewer points and all 4 of those games were played on the road. Milwaukee is 15-4 Under in road games against Atlantic Division opponents since the beginning of the 2007 season. The average total score in these games has been just 188.2 points. Pound the Under.

3* SMASH on T-Wolves/Raptors UNDER 208
With Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargnani both listed as questionable for tonight's game, points will be tough to come by for the Raptors. Bosh is suffering from the flu and Bargnani is dealing with a bad ankle. Even if 1 or both are able to go, their effectiveness will be extremely limited due to their conditions. Here's the clincher: Toronto is 8-0 Under in home games versus terrible defensive teams allowing 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with the average score totaling just 199.4 points. And this trend is a perfect 3-0 this season. Bet the Under.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Blazers/Knicks OVER 200
This line opened at 204 and it has been bet all the way down to where we see it now creating solid value on the Over. We've seen the Knicks play 7 straight games where the final score would have come in over this number and I believe that trend continues tonight. Portland is a pretty good defensive team, but it certainly takes a hit on the defensive end after losing Greg Oden. In fact, the Blazers have allowed 106 or more points in 3 of their last 4 games. The Knicks love to push the pace at home where they are scoring 103.9 ppg and allowing 109.1 ppg. NY is 14-3 Over in home games off a home win since the beginning of the 2007 season, with the combined score totaling 215.6 points in these games. Also, NY is 22-6 Over in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins during the same span, with the combined score totaling 215.3 points in these games. We'll take the Over.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Hawks/Mavs UNDER 204.5
Expect Atlanta to really buckle down on the defensive end tonight after a pair of subpar performances to keep this one Under. In fact, Atlanta is 15-5 Under after allowing 105 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons and 20-6 Under in road games after a game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 55% or higher since 1996. Plus, with both teams having played last night I don't expect a lot of running and gunning here. Bet the Under.

5* NBA "Total" Dominator on Raptors/Hawks OVER 211
The Raptors are giving up 112.1 ppg on the road this season and their poor defense gives us a solid Overs opportunity tonight. The Hawks are 6-2 Over at home this season and they'll be hungry to run up the score after being held to just 88 points last game. The last time these two teams faced off, they combined for 228 points and I believe they are good for at least 215 tonight. Plays Over on Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (TORONTO) - cold team failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, are 25-6 the last 5 season. Bet the Over.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Suns/Knicks UNDER 227
This matchup has gone Over the total in 8 straight meetings in New York. Both the odds makers and the betting public are very conscious of that. That's why the books have set this number 7.5 points higher than the previously posted high in New York of 219.5 to catch the public as they pound the over tonight. This has created outstanding value in taking the Under, especially since the Suns will be more worried about Cleveland tomorrow night and they will be without spark plug Leandro Barbosa. Plus, Mike D'Antoni knows his former team well. In fact, he knows them well enough to know better than to think he can beat them in a foot race when Phoenix is the superior run and gun team. I don't expect the Knicks to completely take the air out of the ball, but I do look for them to be more selective about when they run, likely doing so when Steve Nash is on the bench so the Suns can't counter as quickly. Of those 8 straight Overs in New York, it is worth noting that, only two have gone over the number we have here, and one of those games was an overtime affair. Bet the Under.

4* Major Sunday NBA "Total" Dominator on Magic/Knicks OVER 205.5
New York plays absolutely no defense at home, allowing 111.2 ppg. With New York controlling the tempo, making this an up and down game, I look for a lot of points to be scored. First off, plays Over on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (Orlando) playing on back-to-back days, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season, are 55-25 since 1996. The Over is also 6-1 in the Knicks' last 7 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 and 5-1 in their last 6 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. With Orlando playing back-to-back, its defense will suffer as well. Bet the Over.

3* SMASH on Cavs/Bobcats UNDER 186
Only 169 total points scored in the first meeting this season and I'm expecting low scoring affair here as plays Under on any team (Bobcats) after a huge blowout win by 30 or more against an opponent after leading in its previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 29-6 since 1996. This system shows how the line can be inflated based on a teams previous game and that is certainly the case here. We'll take the Under.

5* NBA Total of the Week on 76ers/Celtics UNDER 189
I really think this is a strong Unders opportunity tonight. Philly just played last night in an up and down game and now it must take on a Boston team that hasn't played since Sunday. Boston is one of the premier defensive teams in the league, especially at the Garden where it is only allowing 88.4 ppg. The Celtics should be especially concerned with the defensive end tonight after giving up 105 points to the Knicks last game. These teams have already met once this season and only 179 total points were scored. It is also highly in our favor that the Under is 6-0 in the 76ers' last 6 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and 6-0 in the Celtics' last 6 game after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Also, consider that the Under is 15-3 in the 76ers' last 18 games as an underdog of 11.0 or more points. Bet the Under.

4* Major NBA "Total" Annihilator on Nets/Nuggets UNDER 203
The Nets are awful. They are 0-13 on the season and scoring only 84.9 ppg. The Nets have broke the century mark only once this season and have scored 94 or fewer in the rest of their games, including 85 or fewer in 8 games. The Nets could actually score a few more points, but they know that they don't have the bodies to run and gun with most teams so they have taken the air out of the ball to stay as competitive as possible. That's why the Nets are only giving up 95.1 ppg. Plus, I don't expect Denver to try to really run up the score here when it plays on the road tomorrow night. New Jersey is 8-0 UNDER after 5 or more consecutive losses this season and Denver is 7-0 UNDER after a combined score of 205 points or more this season. The UNDER is also 5-0 in the Nets' last 5 road games. Bet the Under.

3* SMASH on Grizzlies/76ers OVER 194
I think the odds makers have undershot this number when you consider how poorly the Grizzlies have played on the defensive end on the road, allowing 117.3 points per game in 6 road contests. Memphis would prefer to get out and run with its young and talented lineup and an uptempo game is sure to bring out the best in the 76ers offensively. In games against uptempo teams Phoenix and New York, the 76ers scored 115 and 141 points respectively. The Over is 7-1 in the 76ers last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet the Over.

5* NBA Western Conf Total of the Month on Jazz/Spurs UNDER 199.5
We'll look to take advantage of another solid Unders situation tonight. Both of these veteran teams just played last night so they won't have the legs to make this one a fastbreak affair. Besides, this one is in San Antonio where the Spurs prefer the halfcourt game. Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli are both listed as doubtful for this game which forces coach Popovich to take the air out of the basketball even more than usual to give his team the best chance to win. Parker and Ginobli are the Spurs' best open court players and without them they won't get much of anything in transition tonight. The Under is 4-0 in the Spurs last 4 games playing without rest, but here's the clincher: San Antonio is 12-1 Under after a game where they had 2 or less steals over the last 3 seasons, with the average score in these spots totaling just 183.1 points. Without Parker and Ginobli (for much of the night) last night, the Spurs weren't able to come up with many thefts. Same case tonight and that limits transition buckets. Bet the Under.

5* Wednesday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Nets/Bucks UNDER 189
The Nets are really hurting for offense right now with all their injuries. They have scored 83 or fewer points in each of their last 5 games and find themselves in a really tough spot tonight having just played last night. Milwaukee has put up some big offensive numbers recently but consider the opponents (New York, Denver, Golden State, Dallas), all teams that like to run and gun. We certainly won't see the Nets push the tempo tonight as they just played last night and they know they can't win that way. We've seen this matchup play to the Under in 3 straight, 10 of the last 14 overall, and 8 of the last 11 in Milwaukee. The Nets have gone Under in 6 straight now I'll ride the Under with them again here.

5* NBA Line Mistake of the Week on Bulls/Kings UNDER 198
Chicago's defense is very strong this season and the books are not taking that into account enough with this line. In fact, the Bulls have held 6 of their 9 opponents to 90 or fewer points and the Under is 7-2 on the Bulls this season as a result. The Kings aren't as strong as the Bulls defensively, but Chicago has struggled on the road this season, scoring only 88 points per in 4 road games. In fact, Chicago is 19-6 Under versus poor defensive teams allowing a shooting percentage of 46% or better over the last 2 seasons. Also, the Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in this head-to-head. Bet the Under.

3* NBA Crunch Time Bailout on Raptors/Clippers UNDER 206
Can't see this one going over with the amount of players out and the amount of players playing banged up in this one. No Eric Gordon (LA's 2nd leading scorer), Chris Kaman is questionable with a virus and will be lacking energy if he does go. On the Toronto side Turkoglu and Bosh are both banged up among others. Basically, recent results have forced odds makers to set an unrealistic line here. Plays Under on road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (Raptors) after going over the total by 30 or more points in their last three games, playing on Friday nights, are 76-39 since 1996.

3* NBA "Total" Revenger on Cavs/Heat UNDER 180.5
Miami has played to the Under in 6 straight games and the Cavs have come in Under the total in 6 of their last 7. The Under is the play again here. Cleveland just played last night so tired legs will be an issue. Also, it is going to be very tough for the Cavs to get up for this one after such an emotional win last night over a Magic team that knocked them out of the playoffs. Miami and Cleveland both prefer to play half court hoops and both teams are playing exceptionally well on the defensive end, especially the Heat. Miami has held 5 of its 7 opponents to 89 or fewer points, allowing only 88.6 ppg this season. Meanwhile the Cavs are only allowing 90.2 ppg this season. This matchup has long been an Under machine with the Under going 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in Miami and 13-6 in the last 19 meetings overall. The Under is 6-0 in the Heat's last 6 games playing on 1 days rest and 14-2 in their last 16 games following a S.U. win. Bet the Under.

3* SMASH on Nuggets/Bucks UNDER 197
We've seen the Under in all 5 of Milwaukee's games this season and I believe we'll see it again here. Denver is coming off an emotionally and physically draining win in Chicago last night and will find it very difficult to get up for this one, especially with the Lakers on deck. The Bucks are averaging only 90.4 ppg and giving up just 85.2. Denver is 14-4 Under when playing its 3rd road game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Under.

3* SMASH on Blazers/T-Wolves UNDER 190
System Play: Plays Under on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (Blazer); excellent free throw shooting team (79% or better) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), good ball handling team (14.5 or less turnovers per game) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-16.5 turnovers forced per game) are 35-12 the last 5 seasons. Bet the Under.

5* NBA Total of the Month on Jazz/Celtics UNDER 189
Deron Williams is questionable for tonight's game and even if he can go, I don't expect his normal points considering he only scored 5 points against the Knicks weak defense when playing with the back injury a couple nights ago. Boston is only allowing 84.4 ppg this season and it hasn't played since the 7th so I'm expecting continued strong defensive play. Plus, Utah is going through its normal road struggles, scoring only 95.0 ppg on the road. The Under is 13-3-1 in the Celtics' last 17 vs. the NBA Northwest and I look for this trend to continue here. Bet the Under.

4* Major on Warriors/Pacers OVER 221.5
Expect the Warriors and the Pacers to shatter the total tonight. The last 3 times these two teams have gotten together, we've seen at least 237 points put up on the scoreboard. The Warriors are getting torched for 121.5 ppg on the road this season and I expect a Pacers team that has not played since the 6th to be able to run and gun with them tonight. The Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Indiana and 6-1 in the last 7 meetings overall. Plus, it is 10-1 in the Pacers last 11 vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Over.

3* SMASH on Rockets/Mavs OVER 199
Both of these teams prefer to run and gun and with Josh Howard back in the lineup for Dallas I expect the Mavs to be getting out in transition a whole lot more. In Howard's first game back, the Mavs exploded for 129 points. Houston has to run and gun to compete without Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady. The Rockets have gone over the number in 5 straight games. The Over is 6-0 in Mavericks last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game and 8-1 in Rockets last 9 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. We'll take the Over.

3* SMASH on Nuggets/Bulls UNDER 205
Plays under on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200, an excellent offensive team scoring 102 or more ppg against an average defensive team allowing 92-98 ppg, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more, are 26-5 the last 5 seasons for an 83.9% win rate. When the road team is off a blowout loss of 20 points or more, the system is 23-4 under since 1996 for an 85.2% win rate. Bet the Under.

4* Major NBA "Total" Annihilator on Wizards/Heat UNDER 186
Washington and Miami just played back on November 4th and we only saw 182 points scored in that game. I expect another low scoring affair tonight. Together, these teams are 11-2 to the under this season and this matchup has been an unders machine with 7 of 9 meetings going under the last 3 seasons, including all 4 meetings in Miami. The Heat have held 4 of their 6 opponents under 90 points and one has to expect another stingy defensive effort having not played a game since the 6th. That's a lot of time to rest and prepare. Washington has scored 90 or fewer points in 5 of 7 games this season as its offense continues to struggle without Jamison. Mike Miller is out tonight (taking away 3-point shooting) and Gilbert Arenas is not at 100%. The Under is 5-0 in Wizards last 5 games as an underdog, 4-0 in Wizards last 4 overall, and 4-0 in Wizards last 4 road games. The Under is 7-0 in Heat last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game, 4-0 in Heat last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and 5-0 in Heat last 5 overall. Take the Under.

5* Friday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Bucks/T-Wolves UNDER 189
We've had good success with totals line movers the past two nights and I expect that success to continue here. This line opened at 185 but has been bet up to where we see it now, creating excellent value on the Under, especially since I already liked the Under at the opening number. Milwaukee is having all kinds of trouble with offensive chemistry right now with star shooting guard Michael Redd out. In 2 road games this season, the Bucks haven't topped 86 points. Minnesota has struggled to score the rock as well as it tries to adjust to life in the Triangle Offense. It has not exceeded 95 points at home this season and has scored 90 or fewer points in 3 of 5 games. Together these teams are 7-1 to the Under this season, Minnesota is 13-3 Under in its last 16 home games and 7-0 in its 7 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. Take the Under.

3* SMASH on Nuggets/Heat UNDER 201.5
The Nuggets have been posting high point totals but I expect that to end tonight as they find themselves in Miami where the Heat have played to the Under in 4 straight. Miami prefers to play in the half court and I look for it to control the tempo on its home floor tonight. Defensively, both of these teams have been solid with Miami allowing only 94.7 ppg at home and Denver giving up only 93.7 ppg on the road. Miami just plays solid, fundamental defense, not creating a lot of turnovers. And that is crucial here as we don't expect many points off of turnover to send this one over as a result. In fact, MIAMI is 18-4 Under after 4 straight games forcing 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The average total score in these games is 180.2 points. Plus, the Under is 20-6 in the Nuggets last 26 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Take the Under.

3* Bulls/Cavs NBA on TNT "Total" Dominator on Bulls/Cavs UNDER 191.5
The Bulls have played to the Under in 2 straight and the Cavs have played to the Under in 4 straight. The fact that both of these teams have been Unders clubs early on correlates to Chicago being without key scorer Ben Gordan and the Cavs adjusting to a slower pace with Shaq. This line opened at 186.5 and has been bet up to where we see it now. This movement has created value on the Under. This is a similar scenario to what happened last night in the Suns/Magic game. The total opened at 224 and was been bet down all the way to 217.5 and we cashed in on the Over as the teams combined for 222 points. Since being embarrassed at Toronto, Cleveland

4* Major on Celtics/T-Wolves UNDER 186
With as good as Boston is defensively and with as anemic as Minnesota has been offensively, I can't see this one making its way over the total. Boston is on a 16-4 UNDER run after a huge blowout win by 30 or more with the average point total coming in at 182.7. 3 of 4 have gone UNDER in this matchup the last 2 seasons, including both at Minnesota. With Boston having just played last night, I expect Doc to play his key guys as conservatively as he can and still win as the Celtics have a track meet with Phoenix up next. Take the Under.

5* Wednesday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Suns/Magic OVER 217.5
This total opened at 224 and has been bet down all the way to 217.5. We'll gladly get in on the OVER now as it is showing good value with the line move. The fact that the books set such a high number after seeing the Magic and the Suns both post their lowest point totals of the season tells me the books are expecting a shootout. Orlando will be hungry after last night's embarrassing effort and the Suns will be hungry all season to pay teams back after a rough 2008-09 season. This is the first time each team has played back to back this season so I don't see tired legs as an issue, especially this early in the year. Also, when teams do play back to back, it's usually the defensive end that suffers more and that plays right into our hands. The OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in this series and we'll pound it here.

3* NBA "Total" Blowout on Nets/Bobcats OVER 175
Plays over on any team (Nets) off a road loss, against an opponent off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 80 points, are 80-38 the last 5 seasons. Basically, this system tells us that odds makers overreact with the line in these situations and I believe that's exactly what they have done here. New Jersey is also 13-3 OVER after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons, with the average combined total score coming in at 206.5 in these games. Take the over.

3* SMASH on Knicks/Heat UNDER 207
Coach Mike D'Antoni quickly figured out that it's tough to win in the East without playing solid defense and that's why he has placed an emphasis on it this season. The result, only 193.5 total points per game in New York's preseason contests. Expect to see a better defensive effort from the Knicks tonight, one that this line does not reflect. Also, the under is 16-5 in the Knicks last 21 overall, 8-2 in the Knicks last 10 road games, and 7-3 in their last 10 meetings in Miami. Bet the Under.

3* SMASH on Pistons/Grizzlies OVER 190
I feel this line is representative of last year's Pistons and not the current team under new head coach John Kuester, who has installed a more uptempo philosophy. Veteran half-court, spot-up shooters like Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess are gone and young guys capable of playing in transition like Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva have arrived. With that said, losing the aforementioned vets does hurt the defense and that's why this is an attractive play tonight. Take the Over.

3* NBA Season Opening SMASH (TNT) on Celtics/Cavs UNDER 185
Expect a low-scoring defensive battle in Cleveland tonight as a healthy Celtics team once again figures to be among the finest defensive units in the league. Cleveland was an exceptional defensive team at home last season, allowing only 88.2 ppg so the Cavs know how to play defense as well. On top of the fact that we have two solid defensive teams here. The Cavs offense figures to struggle in the early going as they adjust to life with Shaquille O'Neal. Also, his presence in the lineup calls for a slower paced game. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Cleveland. The under is also 9-3 in the Celtics' last 12 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Lastly, the Cavs are 33-13 under as a home fave of 3.5 to 6 points under coach Brown. Let's start off the season with a nice unders winner.

3* NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" BLOWOUT on Lakers/Nuggets OVER 208.5
3 straight unders in this series have brought the total down 5 points since Game 1 and now the books will pay for making such a mistake. We saw these teams score 208 and 209 points respectively in Games 1 and 2 and after totaling only 200 in a poor shooting Game 3, I expect to see a shootout. Denver is averaging 108.2 ppg at home this season and the Lakers are averaging 104.6 ppg on the road. Denver is 36-9 OVER when both teams score 98 or more points in a game this season. The average score in these games was DENVER 112.7, OPPONENT 107.8. And the Lakers are 37-11 OVER when both teams score 98 or more points in a game this season. The average score was LA LAKERS 113.2, OPPONENT 107.6. Bet the Over.

5* NBA Eastern Conference Finals TOTY (TNT) on Magic/Cavs UNDER 188.5
The public is all over the over here and that is exactly where the sportsbooks want it. We saw a total score of 213 points in Game 1, and odds makers only raised the total 4.5 points? Exactly. Adjustments are going to be made by both teams on the defensive end, and you can expect to see the Cavs team which is only allowing 87.7 ppg at home tonight. Orlando is 19-6 UNDER after a close win by 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons, 10-1 UNDER after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better over the last 2 seasons, and Cleveland is 14-2 UNDER after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread this season. The Under is 11-4 in Magic last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 8-1 in Cavaliers last 9 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. 7 of 11 games over the last 3 seasons have gone Under in this matchup. Bet the Under!

4* Major NBA Playoffs Total of the Week on Magic/Celtics OVER 186
Following 3 straight unders, which included a very low scoring Game 6, odds makers have lowered this line way too much, and we'll take full advantage. Boston is 17-6 OVER in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season, 10-2 OVER in home games revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent this season, and 13-4 OVER when playing with 2 days rest this season. All 3 of these situations have seen Boston and its opponent combine for over 200 points on average. On the other side, Orlando is 13-3 OVER after a combined score of 175 points or less this season and 21-8 OVER after allowing 85 points or less over the last 2 seasons. I'll bet the Over tonight.

5* NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" Blowout on Lakers/Rockets OVER 194
Without Yao Ming in the lineup, I expect the pace of Game 4 to really pick up, which makes this a strong Overs opportunity. The Over is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 5-2 in Rockets last 7 playoff games as an underdog. The Over is 6-1 in Lakers last 7 games following a ATS win, 5-1 in Lakers last 6 Conference Semifinals games, and 6-2 in Lakers last 8 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Over gets the call today.

5* 2009 NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Hawks/Cavs OVER 177.5
The Hawks will go hard tonight to try to steal a game on the road, pushing this one over the total in the process. I don't really see the Hawks stopping the Cavs defensively. Atlanta is allowing 99.6 ppg on the road this season and Cleveland is scoring 102.1 ppg at home. But I do see the Hawks scoring way more than they did in Game 1 as Joe Johnson comes to life tonight. During the regular season, the Hawks scored 96 points in each game at Cleveland so this team is capable of scoring the basketball against the Cavs. 18 of 25 games in this series played at Cleveland have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996, but here's the clincher: Plays Over on any team in the second round of the playoffs, in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 32-6 the last 5 seasons. Bet the Over tonight!

3* NBA on TNT Prime Time Total on Blazers/Rockets UNDER 179.5
The public is all over the over here, but it is going to get them burnt. The last 3 games in this series have all gone under with point totals of 169, 177, and 165. Both teams play slow-down defensive minded basketball and the defensive intensity will be at it's highest tonight with Portland fighting to stay alive and Houston looking to close out the Blazers. Portland is 9-1 UNDER in road games in April games over the last 2 seasons and Houston is 10-1 UNDER in home games in April games over the last 2 seasons. Plays Under on all teams where the total is 179.5 or less (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 53-21 since 1996.

3* NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" Blowout on Celtics/Bulls UNDER 196
Without overtime, we would have seen 4 of 5 games in this series play to the under. The odds makers are facing us with the smallest total of this series and that means they are begging for action on the over, but we won't bite. As this series has gone one, we have seen far less fast breaking and far more defense being played. With Chicago's playoff life on the line, and with Boston looking to close this thing out, I expect a defensive struggle resulting in the under. Boston is 8-1 UNDER in road games after 2 or more consecutive overs this season, 15-2 UNDER in road games off a home win this season, and 22-6 UNDER in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. Chicago is 20-6 UNDER in home games versus very good shooting teams - making >=48% of their shots since 1996. Lastly, plays UNDER on All teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in April games are 75-30 the last 5 seasons. Bet the Under!

5* NBA Playoffs 1st Rd Total of the Year on Mavs/Spurs UNDER 189.5
We have seen 3 of 4 games go over in this series, but 2 of those games made it over by just 1 point. It's going to take an exceptional defensive effort for the Spurs to stay alive tonight, and I have no doubt that you'll see it from this well rested team. San Antonio is 15-4 UNDER in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons - average score totaling 180.8 points. Popovich is 21-9 UNDER when trailing in a playoff series as the coach of San Antonio - average score totaling 182.4 points in these games. And plays under on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in April games are 71-28 the last 5 seasons. Lastly, the UNDER is 12-4 in the Mavericks last 16 games as an underdog. With Dallas fighting to put the Spurs away and the Spurs fighting to stay alive, I expect a very high intensity defensive battle. Bet the Under.

4* Major Saturday NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" Blowout on Nuggets/Hornets UNDER 198
The Hornets would like to run and gun a little more but they know they can't do so and be competitive with the Nuggets. I expect them to take the air out of the ball at home today and really up their level of play on defense after getting hit in the mouth in the first two games of the series. New Orleans is a much better home team, especially on defense where it holds its opponents to only 91.7 ppg. Denver is 8-1 UNDER in road games after a blowout win by 15 points or more this season. New Orleans is 8-1 UNDER in home games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season and 18-4 UNDER revenging a road loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons with the average total score being 182.8 in this spot. Bet the Under.

4* NBA Playoffs Total of the Week on Blazers/Rockets UNDER 184.5
After watching each of the first two games in this series go over, I love the Under tonight. The Rockets are only allowing 91 ppg at home this season and they have held each of their last 3 home opponents to 88, 83, and 66 points respectively. The Rockets have been able to control the tempo at home in this matchup and the result has played to the under in 15 of the last 24 home meetings against the Blazers. First off, Houston is 14-4 UNDER in home games after one or more consecutive overs this season and 12-2 UNDER in a home game where where the total is between 180 and 184.5 points over the last 2 seasons. Secondly, Portland is 17-5 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons. Lastly, we'll plays on the Under on road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points off a home no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 29-9 the last 5 seasons. This one has Under written all over it.