4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Wizards/Bulls OVER

We cashed in an easy winner on the Bulls/Nets OVER last night, as those two combined for 231. While Chicago was playing in a shootout, the Wizards combined for 225 to go OVER the total with the Cavs. 

It just continued a trend of high-scoring games for both of these teams. The OVER has cashed in the Wizards last 4 and 6 of their last 7. The OVER is also cashed in 4 of the last 5 for the Bulls. Washington has scored 115+ in 4 straight and have allowed 130+ in 3 of their last 4. The only team not to reach the mark is the worthless Cavs. Bulls have scored 118+ in 3 straight and 100 or more in every game since Jan. 4. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bulls/Nets OVER 

The Bulls/Nets should have zero problem eclipsing the total set here by the books. The average score in Chicago's last 5 games is 225.2 and for Brooklyn the average score in their last 5 games is 226.6. 

Bulls defense has been non-existent in their last 2, giving up 125 to both the Pelicans and Hornets. Chicago's offense on the other hand is shooting lights out, having hit 50% from the field in each of their last 4. Brooklyn just gave up 130 to the Nuggets in a game that saw 265 total points scored, as both teams shot over 50% from the field. 

OVER is 32-18 in the Bulls last 50 as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points (last 3 seasons). OVER is also 6-1 lat 7 for Chicago on the road against a team with a winning home record. 

Adding even more value here is a big time system that has cashed 76% over the last 5 seasons. The OVER is 44-14 in the month of February when you have a game with a 1st half total greater than 100 and a team (Nets) that went over the total by more than 30 points in their last game. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Late Night TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Rockets/Kings UNDER

A lot of people are just going to look at how high-scoring these two teams are and just assume that they will easily eclipse the total set here by the books. The thing is, the books have adjusted, especially on Sacramento. The UNDER is 11-2-1 in the Kings last 14 games. 

OVER has cased in each of the Rockets last 4 games, but the UNDER is a strong 13-6 in Houston's last 19 road games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. UNDER is also a staggering 17-3 in the Rockets last 20 road games with a line of +3 to -3. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Late Night Total NO-BRAINER on Bulls UNDER

The books have missed the mark here with the total in this one. People just see the Warriors and automatically assume it's going to be a high-scoring game. I don't think we see an offensive explosion in this one. The Warriors are so much better than Chicago that it's going to be extremely hard for Golden State to show up for this one. 

On the flip side of this, the Bulls are a young team that is going to play their hearts out to see how they stack up against the defending champs. Don't be fooled by the 149-124 Warriors win at Chicago earlier this season. The Bulls were missing a ton of players to injury and if anything that result will make them focus that much more on the defensive side of the ball. 

UNDER is 12-3-1 in the Warriors last 16 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games and 11-3 in the Bulls last 14 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Non-Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cavs/Rockets OVER

The books have completely missed the mark here with the total. Houston and Cleveland should have no problem eclipsing 220 points and there's a potential for them to fly by the number. Houston can light up the scoreboard, especially when James Harden has it going like he does now. 

Last 3 games the Cavs have allowed 140 at New Orleans, 123 to the Pacers and 133 to the Pelicans at home. Each of their last 7 opponents have eclipsed 110 points. I think Houston could easily top 130 and we should see the Cavs score at least 100. Rockets haven't allowed fewer than 100 since the middle of December and are just not the same defensive team without Chris Paul in the lineup. 

OVER is 8-2 in the Rockets last 10 vs a team from the Eastern Conference and 5-1 in their last 6 at home vs a bad team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Sixers UNDER

There's simply too much value to pass up on here with the UNDER. I get the Clippers have been a part of a lot of high-scoring games of late, but this will be their 3rd game in 4 days and we should get a max effort here defensively from the 76ers after their embarrassing 34-point loss to the Blazers, where they gave up 129 points and allowed Portland to shoot 59% from the field. 

UNDER is 64-42 in the 76ers last 106 games after they allow 120 or more points and an amazing 15-4 in their last 19 road games after a blowout loss by 30 or more points. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Grizzlies UNDER

If you have watched Memphis play at all, you know that they are an ideal team to be involved in a low-scoring game. While everyone else is trying to speed it up and stretch the floor, the Grizzlies are grinding out possessions and trying to win games with their defense. 

It  hasn't worked great for them of late, as they are just 3-8 in their last 11, but they have won 2 of their last 3 and we can bank on a big effort here, as Memphis just lost at home to Houston on 12/15. 

The other key here is that the Rockets will have to play this one without Eric Gordon and they are already without Chris Paul. Gordon averages 15.7 ppg. That means the only healthy double-digit score for Houston besides James Harden is big man Clint Capela. As good as Harden is, he can't do it all and Memphis is going to make him work. 

All this should add up to a very low-scoring game. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Pistons UNDER

This is an ideal matchup for a low-scoring grind it out type of game. Both the Magic and Pistons rank in the bottom 5 in the league in offensive efficiency. While both have struggled to score, they have played hard defensively and both are in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency. Another key here is pace and while the Pistons are 14th in pace, Orlando is 26th. 

UNDER is 10-4-1 in the Pistons last 15 games and 8-4 in Orlando's last 12. UNDER is also 20-7 in the Magic's last 27 games vs a team from the Eastern Conference and 5-0 in Detroit's last 5 vs the Southeast Division. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Sixers/Celtics UNDER

I love the UNDER here in this division clash between the 76ers and Celtics. There's a ton of talent on both teams and these are two teams that are believed to have a legit shot at winning the Eastern Conference. I think both are going to be out to make a statement here and we are going to get max effort from both sides on the defensive side of the ball. 

These two played back in October and the Celtics won 105-87 for a combined total of just 193 points. That game had a total of 211.5. I get the 76ers have added Jimmy Butler since that game, but he's an elite defender and we got plenty of wiggle room here with this total north of 220. 

The average score in the 76ers last 17 division road games is 214.5. The average score in the Celtics last 15 division home games is 207.1. Take the UNDER! 

3* Bucks/Knicks NBA Total Winner on Knicks UNDER

I love the value here with the Knicks as a double-digit dog and this game staying well UNDER the mark on the total. 

New York is way undervalued here because of the fact that they have lost 4 straight and are just 1-9 in their last 10. They have been competitive in a lot of these losses and we know we are going to get a max effort here at home against a team like the Bucks. 

These two teams have already played twice this year and both times the Knicks have kept it within single-digits. In fact, they won outright earlier this month at home as a 8-point dog. 

That last meeting was very high-scoring, which is why we are seeing such a high total here. There's just a different defensive intensity that teams play with on Christmas Day. I also think this early start time will have both offenses struggling to get going. Take New York & UNDER!

3* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Lakers OVER

These two teams should have no problem eclipsing the total set here by the books. I get the low number here with Memphis and their tendency for lower-scoring games, but I just don't think these two will be bringing the defensive intensity in this one. 

Both teams are on no rest, as the Lakers played at San Antonio last night in a shootout (lost 133-120) and the Grizzlies were in a dog fight at New Orleans (won 107-103). I think both teams easily reach the 100-point mark in this one and I wouldn't be shocked if this thing ended up a closer to 225. 

OVER is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams, including 3-1-1 in the last 5 games played at Memphis. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Bulls/Rockets OVER

The Bulls and Rockets should have no problem eclipsing the total set here by the books. A big reason for that is both teams don't figure to be exerting a lot of energy on the defensive side, as each team will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, as well as their 3rd game overall in the last 4 days. 

Houston's offense has really gotten better since the start of the season and they put up 136 last night in San Antonio and are averaging 118.8 ppg over their last 5. Chicago is giving up 113.8 ppg on the road and will have no answer for Harden and company. 

Key here is that while the Bulls offense is limited, the Rockets defense has been slipping of late. Houston has allowed at least 105 in 7 straight games and I just don't see this game being close enough to where they feel they have to lock down defensively. 

OVER is a perfect 7-0 in the Rockets last 7 after scoring 100 or more points, 5-0 in their last 5 vs a team from the Eastern Conference and 4-0 last 4 home games vs a team with a losing road record. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA No Limit TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Magic/Warriors UNDER

Books have completely missed the mark here. The Warriors will be without both Steph Curry and Draymond Green. Sure they still have KD and Klay Thompson, but it's just not the same without those two on the court. 

Not to mention we know the Magic are going to give max effort here on the defensive side of the ball, as everyone brings it when they get a shot at Golden State and they have to be thinking about potentially stealing a win with the Warriors short-handed. 

I think Golden State matches that defensive intensity as they have really played well on that side of the ball the last two games and this Orlando offense is limited and haven't shot it great of late. 

Look for a slower than normal pace and for this to fly under the mark set by the books. UNDER is 26-10-1 in Warriors last 37 off a game they didn't cover the spread and 4-1 in Magic's last 5 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Nets/Heat UNDER

Total is too high here for this matchup. Brooklyn's not the same offensive team after losing their leading scorer in Caris LeVert and Miami's offense doesn't run the same without starting point guard Goran Dragic, who is out indefinitely with a knee injury. 

Heat have failed to score 100 points in each of their last 2, including a mere 97 last time out at home to the Lakers, who aren't exactly a top notch defensive team. Add in the familiarity with these two teams having just played each other a week ago, I look for both offenses to struggle to get going. In large part because I think Miami's defense will show up in a big way here, but the offense will continue to struggle to score without Dragic. 

UNDER 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in this series. It's also 7-2 in Miami's last 9 vs a team with a losing record and 8-2 in the Nets last 10 vs a team with a losing record. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Magic OVER

These two teams will have no problem going over the total here, as both sides don't play much defense. New York comes in allowing 116.3 ppg on the road, where opponents are shooting 48% from the field and 37.4% from deep. It's very similar in Orlando, where the Magic are giving up 111 ppg at home, while letting opponents shoot 47.5% and 39% from deep. 

Last game for the Magic they combined for 147 at home against the Lakers. Each of New York's last two have seen 130+. Over is also 10-3 in Orlando's last 13 off a win by double-digits and 21-9 in the Knicks last 30 when they enter a contest having failed to cover 4 of 5 of their last 6. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Nets/Clippers UNDER

Books have completely missed the mark here with the total for Saturday's NBA action between the Clippers and Nets. LAC is coming off a big 3-game home stand where they went 3-0 with wins over the Bucks, Warriors and Spurs. Now they travel across the country for game against the Nets, who are without Caris LeVert and might be missing Hollis-Jefferson. 

UNDER has cashed 5 of the last 6 times that the Clippers have made the trip to Brooklyn. UNDER is also 25-12 in Brooklyn's last 37 as a home dog of 6 points or less and 10-1 in their last 11 at home off an upset win as a dog. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Bulls/Celtics UNDER

The Bulls have been an UNDER machine with the struggles they are having offensively combined with the effort they are giving on the defensive side of the ball. UNDER is 3-0 in Chicago's last 3, 6-1 in their last 7 and 9-3 in their last 12. 

Considering Boston comes in having lost 4 of 5 over a 5-game road trip with the only win against the Suns, I have to believe they give a big effort defensively to make sure they get back on track. As for the offense, they haven't been shooting well of late. They scored just 94 and shot 38.7% from the field last time out against the Blazers. Bulls have held 6 of their last 7 to 107 or less and if they can simply do that, this won't come close to the number set here. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Rockets UNDER

I don't see this one coming close to the total set by the books. It's hard to explain how the Rockets went from such an offensive juggernaut to one that is headed into the middle of November ranked 28th in the NBA at 102.7 ppg. They put up 115 at home last time out against the Pacers, but had gone 4 straight games prior to that where they failed to hit 100 (scored fewer than 90 twice). 

The Nuggets are coming off a high-scoring game against Milwaukee at home, where they lost 121-114. That's now 3 straight losses for Denver after their 9-1 start. I don't think their early success was a fluke and this should be a max effort spot defensively for the Nuggets to snap their skid. 

While the offense has been a disaster for Houston the defense has been really good. The Rockets are allowing just 95.8 ppg over their last 5. They got no choice but to keep playing hard on that side of the ball as they try to dig themselves out of their poor start. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Western Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Kings OVER

Books have missed the mark here with the total in tonight's NBA matchup between the Spurs and Kings. I just think this is a big overreaction to what we have seen of late from both teams. San Antonio lost 88-95 at Miami and then won 96-89 at home against the Rockets in their last two. Both of those extremely low scoring. Same thing with Sacramento's last game, as they combined for just 187 in a 101-86 loss at home to the Lakers. 

I  look for both teams to get back on track offensively. Kings simply had a bad night at the office against LA. Sacramento has been one of the top offenses in the league early on. They are scoring 115.3 ppg and rank in the top half of the league in both effective field goal percentage and offensive efficiency. 

While the offense has been great, they are giving up 116.8 ppg and the Spurs come in averaging 114.7 ppg on the road. San Antonio is only giving up 107.9 ppg on the season, but are allowing 112.0 ppg away from home. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Late Night Total DESTROYER on Lakers/Hawks UNDER

There's just too much value here on the UNDER to pass up with this ridiculously high total. I know both of these teams are scoring at a decent clip and have had their struggles defensively, but I just don't see the pace being where it needs to be to eclipse this number. 

Lakers will be in the second game of a back-to-back set, as they played at Sacramento last night. Hawks had yesterday off, but this is their first game out west and will be their 4th game in the last 6 days.

LA won 101-86 over the Kings last night, holding a red-hot Sacramento offense to just 34.8% shooting. I think they are going to be a lot stronger defensively now that they got Tyson Chandler. UNDER is 4-0-1 in Laker's last 5 off a win and 3-0-1 in their last 4 at home. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Knicks/Raptors UNDER

I think we could see a bit of a sluggish start here for Toronto. You have an earlier start time than normal with the 3:05 EST tip. You also have the Raptors having not played since Wednesday when they concluded a 4 game road trip in Sacramento. 

I also think with some fresh legs we could see Toronto get after it a little more defensively with this being a division game and the Knicks aren't exactly an offensive juggernaut. New York has scored 108 or less in 5 of their last 6 and average just 105 ppg on the road. 

UNDER is 6-2 in Toronto's last 8 vs a team with a losing record, as well as 7-3-1 in the Knicks last 11 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. UNDER is also 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams in Toronto. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA TNT Thursday GAME OF THE MONTH on Bucks/Warriors UNDER

This is going to be a heavily bet game. Not just because we have a potential NBA Finals preview with the Warriors and Bucks, but this is also the last NBA game on the board and it's nationally televised on TNT. Books know the public is going to be on the OVER in this one, as they love backing the OVER with Golden State and the Bucks come in averaging 120 ppg. 

I just think it's resulted in ton of value here on the UNDER. People focus so much on the offense side of the ball with these two teams, they don't give their defenses enough respect. Bucks are No. 2 in the NBA in defensive efficiency and the Warriors are 13th. Regardless of where Golden State is ranked, I think we all know that they are elite defensively when they want to be. Most nights they don't need to be. I think in this spot against the "Greek Freak" they will be ready to go. 

UNDER is 7-1 in Golden State's last 8 games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Southeast TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Hornets OVER

The books have completely missed the mark here with this total. Atlanta has played in 3 straight shootouts that have gone over the total, but I expect a much better defensive effort here on 2 days of rest. Hawks are also off a win and cover. UNDER is 21-5 in Atlanta's last 26 off a cover and 8-2 in their last 10 on 2 days of rest. 

I also think Atlanta's offense could struggle to reach their season average of 110.8 ppg. Charlotte's defense was on point last time out, holding the Cavs to just 94 points. They have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 43.5% or worse from the field. 

UNDER is also a solid 11-4 in the Hawks last 15 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK  on Bulls/Knicks UNDER

Hard to not like the value here with the UNDER at this price. Chicago's playing short-handed early on this season, as they are without starters Lauri Markkanen and Kris Dunn, as well as key reserves Bobby Portis and Denzel Valentine. In their last 6 games they have scored 107 or fewer points in 5 games. The only exception was against Golden State when the Warriors gave up 74 points in the 2nd half with the game way out of reach. 

New York is in a similar spot, as they are still waiting for Kristaps Porzingis to play his first game. Rookie Kevin Knox and Courtney Lee are both out and now leading scorer Tim Hardaway Jr. may not be able to play, as he's dealing with a back injury. He's listed as questionable, but given this is the 2nd game of a back-to-back (played last night in Washington), have to think he will be given the night off. 

Just not enough offensive talent here to eclipse the total set here and both teams are playing hard defensively. UNDER is 6-1 in the last 7 Knicks games when they are facing a team with a losing record and 6-0 in the Bulls last 6 off a SU loss. Take UNDER! 

5* NBA Vegas Insider TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rockets OVER

The under has cashed in each of the last 4 games for the Pacers and Houston is coming off a game against the Bulls where they won by a final score of 96-88. I think all of this has created some great value on the OVER in this one.

Both meetings between these two teams last year saw at least 213 points. Indiana is averaging 109.5 ppg at home and the Rockets are putting up 112.7. For whatever reason the Rockets have been ice-cold shooting at home, yet are hitting 46.4% from the field on the road and averaging 15 made 3-pointers on 37.3% shooting from deep.

With a big game against OKC (Melo was booted and signed with Houston) on deck for the Rockets and Indiana off the big win over Boston and another big game on deck against the 76ers, I just don't think we see an all out effort defensively from either side here. That should have this thing finishing a lot closer to 220-225. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Spurs UNDER

These two teams could have a difficult time just getting to 200 points. While scoring is up for the league as a whole, the Magic haven't caught on board. There's teams out there scoring 120+ on a nightly basis. Orlando has hit 100 points just 3 times in 8 games. Their last 3 games they have scored, 91, 99 and 95. 

Spurs are always a great fundamental team and execute at a high level. They are really playing well defensively right now, as they are giving up just 99.8 ppg over their last 4. San Antonio will have no problem keeping this Magic offense in check. I'm willing to be the Spurs won't score enough to eclipse this mark.

UNDER is 6-0 in the Spurs last 6 vs a team with a losing record 7-0 in the Magic's last 7 vs a team with a winning record and 7-0 in the last 7 meetings in the series. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Western Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Warriors/Wolves UNDER

I just think that given how good the Warriors offense has been early on and this being a nationally televised game on ESPN, we are seeing quite the inflated total for tonight's showdown between Golden State and Minnesota. 

Last time out the Timberwolves knocked off the Jazz 128-125 as a 7-point home dog, which is worth noting, as the UNDER is 10-1 in Minnesota's last 11 road games off an upset win over a division rival as a home dog. Not to mention, there's no doubt the Timberwolves are going to give everything they got against the Warriors, regardless of the tension inside the locker room. 

UNDER is also 12-3 in the Warriors last 15 games against the Western Conference and 7-2-1 in their last 10 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. UNDER is also 22-8 in the last 30 meetings between these two franchises. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Thunder UNDER

I'm expecting a big time effort here from Washington at home, as they try and get things going in the right direction after their 1-6 start. They still haven't won a game on their home court this season. You can count on them laying it all on the line here and it will certainly help that Dwight Howard is going to make his season debut. 

Big reason Washington has struggled is their defense and lack of rebounding, the two areas that Howard figures to impact the most. As for OKC and them not going off to push this over, this is a tough spot for the Thunder. They are coming off a 111-107 win at Charlotte last night, where they had to use a ton of energy rallying from a 19-point 2nd half deficit. I just think that effort and the travel will have them playing at a slower pace than normal.

UNDER is 31-13 in OKC's last 44 as a road dog, 15-5 in their last 20 on the road with a total of 220 or more and 11-2 in their last 13 after scoring 110 or more points in 3 straight games. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Kings/Hawks UNDER 

The Kings come into this one off a 107-99 win at Orlando as a 4.5-point dog, while Atlanta enters off an ugly 136-114 loss at Cleveland as a 4.5-point dog. Those two results set up a very profitable system on tonight's game going under the total. 

UNDER is 40-13 (76%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a team off an upset win as a road dog (Kings) playing against a team off a blowout road loss by 20 or more points. 

It's also worth noting the Kings have won 4 straight as an underdog and are now 5-3 on the season, which sets up another profitable system, as the UNDER is 23-5 (82%) with a total of 200 or more with a team off 2 or more outright wins as a road dog and have a winning record on the season. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Thunder/Hornets UNDER

Books have set the total too high for tonight's NBA action that has the Hornets hosting the Thunder. Both these teams are playing well coming into this game and I expect big efforts from each side on the defensive end. 

OKC has played well defensively this year and will be extra-motivated to get their first road win of the season. Charlotte has also been a strong defensive team early on and will definitely be up for this one against Westbrook and company. 

UNDER is 30-13 in OKC's last 43 as a road underdog and 6-1 in the Hornets last 7 vs a team with a winning record. 

There's also a great system in play. UNDER is 27-8 (77%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 220 or more with a team off a home win by 10 or more against an opponent off a home win where they score at least 110 points. This system fits both of these teams! Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Non-Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Clippers/Sixers OVER

Get ready for some offensive fire-works in tonight's NBA showdown between the Clippers and 76ers. Neither of these teams brought much energy on the defensive side in their last game on Tuesday and with just 1-day off I expect more of the same. 

Los Angeles allowed 128 points and 51.1% shooting in 18-point loss at OKC, which saw a combined score of 238. Philadelphia gave up 129 and 51.1% shooting in a 17-point loss at Toronto, which saw 241 combined points. 

76ers come into this one averaging 115.2 ppg at home and the Clippers are averaging 117.3 ppg on the road. OVER is 13-4 in the Clippers last 17 after playing in a game with a combined score of 235 or more, 8-3-1 in their last 12 off a SU loss and 5-2 in Philadelphia's last 7 overall. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Northwest GAME OF THE MONTH on Jazz UNDER

The books have completely missed the mark with this total. No way the Jazz and Timberwolves combine for 224 or more points. Minnesota is coming off a high-scoring game against LA, which was played at a frantic pace. While the Timberwolves put up 124, they only shot 42.9% from the field. That's 4 straight games where Minnesota has shot 43% or worse. 

Utah's defense gave up a couple of big numbers right out of the gate, but in their last 4 games they are holding their opponents to just 99.0 ppg. We saw the Timberwolves only score 95 in their previous home game against the Bucks. 

Look for the Jazz to really rely on that defense in this one, as they aren't going to want to play up-tempo here. This will be Utah's 4 straight on the road and 3rd game in the last 5 nights. 

Note that the UNDER is a solid 76-40 (66%) since 1996 when you have a total of 200 or more where a team is playing their 4th straight on the road and playing on 2 days of rest. Take the UNDER! 

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Spurs UNDER

Great value here with the UNDER Saturday night in San Antonio, as the Spurs will host LeBron James and the Lakers. LA has been in a bunch of high-scoring games so far this season. The OVER is a perfect 5-0 and all 5 have seen at least 235 points. That includes a ridiculous 143-142 Spurs win in LA on 10/22. 

I think having just played each other will have both teams much better prepared defensively, which should lead to a lot lower-scoring game. I also don't think the pace will be there for the Lakers, who are playing in their 3rd game in 4 nights. 

I know the Lakers have been allowing teams to shoot extremely well from the field, but the UNDER is 10-1 in LA's last 11 after 3 straight games allowing teams to shoot 50% or better from the field. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Warriors/Knicks UNDER

Public loves to back the OVER in games involving the Warriors and will be running to get their ticket on the OVER after Golden State just put up 144 points at home against the Wizards, which saw a combined score of 166. Even with that high-scoring game, the UNDER has cashed in 3 of the Warriors 5 games this season. 

I just don't think we are going to see 230 points between Golden State and New York. The Knicks just don't have the fire-power offensively and are coming off a game against Miami where they scored just 87 points on 36.3% shooting.

Everyone focuses on the offense of the Warriors, but this is a great defensive team. Opponents are only shooting 42.5% from the field against them. They are exceptional at defending the 3-pointer, as opponents are only hitting 29.3% from deep. 

UNDER is 19-9 in the Warriors last 28 after two straight games where they shot 50% or better from the field, 12-3 in their last 15 after scoring 125 or more and 5-1 in their last 6 road games. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Non-Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Celtics/Thunder OVER

Boston has been such a good defense team under Brad Stevens and to no surprise they lead the league in defensive efficiency right out of the gate. The thing is, they have had two really good defensive efforts at home, holding the 76ers to 87 and the Magic to 93, but have allowed 113 (@ Toronto) and 101 (@ New York) in their two road games. 

Oklahoma City put up 120 points in Westbrook's first game back and this team is going to score a lot of points with him and George both healthy. While the offense should be great for the Thunder, the defense is still a work in progress. They also gave up 131 points and let the Kings shoot 54.9% from the field in Westbrook's first game back. 

Boston has a more than capable offense and I look for them to have no problem keeping pace offensively with OKC, who is playing at one of the fastest paces in the league, despite Westbrook not playing in their first two games. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total MASSACRE on Sixers/Pistons UNDER

With Ben Simmons doubtful to play for Philadelphia, I don't see these two teams coming close to the total set here by the books. Without Simmons running the point, the 76ers aren't going to get near as many easy looks, as he's one of the best passers in the game. 

We also saw this Philadelphia team struggle in their only other road game this season, scoring just 87 points at Boston. As for Detroit, they may be without big man Andre Drummond, who is scoring 17 ppg and 6.5 offensive rebounds. It's also worth noting that while the Pistons are averaging 110.5 ppg, the teams they have played are giving up on average 116.7 ppg, so they aren't as potent as you might think. 

These two teams both pick up the defensive intensity against quality opponents. UNDER is 5-1 in the 76ers last 6 vs a team with a winning record and 7-3 in the Pistons last 10 vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Knicks OVER

I look for the Bucks and Knicks to have no problem cashing in the OVER in Monday's NBA action. This is not your same old Milwaukee team from previous years. New head coach Mike Budenholzer has put a huge emphasis on the 3-point shot and it's shown. 

The Bucks attempted just 24.7 3-pointers and made 8.8 per game last year. While it's really early, in their first two games they have averaged 40 attempts and 15.5 made 3-pointers. They have combined for 225 against the Hornets and 119 against the Pacers, two good defensive teams. 

Now they face the a Knicks defense that has allowed 100+ in all 3 of their games and despite shooting just 42.4% from the field, New York is averaging 110.7 ppg. 

OVER is 26-9 in the Bucks last 35 off two straight games where they went over the total and 17-3 in their last 20 after two straight with a combined score of 215 or more. 

We also find a great system in play, as the OVER has gone 44-18 (71%) since 1996 in games where you have a total of 210 or more, where the road team is off a loss by 3-points or less against a team that scored 115 or more in their previous game. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Warriors UNDER

While there have been a lot of high-scoring games early on this NBA season, I don't see Sunday's matchup between the Warriors and Nuggets coming anywhere close to the number the books set here. 

Everyone has Golden State circled on their calendar and are going to give them their best shot. We have already saw that in each of the Warriors first two games, as OKC (without Westbrook) lost by just 8 in Golden State and Utah lost by just 1 at home and should have won that game outright. 

Denver has started out 2-0 agains the Clippers and Suns, two teams not really expected to be in the playoff hunt in the West. While you don't want to overreact to those two results, I think it says a lot with how well the Nuggets have played defensively. They went on the road and held the Clippers to 98 points and followed it up by limiting the Suns to just 91. They held LA to just 40.25 shooting and PHO to 37.7%. 

I'm not expect them to keep Golden State under 100, but I think they can keep them closer to 110 and that should be enough to stay under the mark. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Late Night Total MASSACRE  on Rockets/Lakers UNDER

I think we are seeing a big overreaction here with the total in tonight's highly anticipated showdown between the Rockets and Lakers, which will mark the home debut of LeBron James in LA. The Rockets saw 243 combined points in their opener against the Pelicans, but it was New Orleans not Houston who lit up the scoreboard. 

The Lakers saw a 147 combined points in their opener against the Blazers, but they had just 119 to Portland's 128. I really liked the effort we got from LA and this is a team that really needs to play hard defensively to have a chance with their lack of 3-point shooting. With this being James' first home game, I think we get a max effort here from both sides on the defensive end, as each wants to avoid the 0-2 start. 

UNDER is 7-1 in the Rockets last 8 after allowing 125 or more points in their previous game and 8-3 in their last 11 off a loss. UNDER is also 11-1 in Houston's last 12 road games with a line of +3 to -3. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Late Night Total NO-BRAINER on Warriors UNDER

The total here has been set way too high for tonight's game between the Warriors and Jazz. I think  we are getting the value, due to the fact that Utah gave up 117 points on the road to the Kings, but that was more of the Jazz knowing they didn't need a max effort on the defensive side of the ball to beat the likes of Sacramento. 

When Rudy Gobert has been in the lineup, this Utah team has been one of the top defensive teams in the league. There's no question we are going to get the very best they have to offer on that side of the ball against the defending champs. 

While the Warriors are definitely capable of going off, they only managed 108 points at home in their opener against OKC. What we did see from Golden State in their opener was some great defense, as they held the Thunder to just 36.3% shooting. I think we see a very similar outcome to that OKC game, where this comes in around 205-210 points. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/Sixers OVER

This might seem like a big number after watching the 76ers offense manage just 87 points in their opener at Boston, but that Celtics defense is one of the best in the league. That performance isn't going to sit well with Philadelphia and I look for them to come out and lay it on the Bulls offensively at home. 

The key here is that while Chicago is missing a couple key players, they finally have some nice pieces in place to run the up-tempo offense that Hoiberg wants to play. The Bulls got some nice young talent and their only hope of winning is to outscore the opposition. I look for both teams easily eclipse 100 points and for this one to finish a lot closer to 230 than 220. 

In the last two seasons the OVER is 26-10 in the Bulls 36 games when they have been listed as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points and the OVER is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings in this series. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Opening Night Total NO-BRAINER on Thunder/Warriors UNDER

The public loves to bet the OVER in Warriors' games and with this being a prime time game that's going to get a ton of action, I think the books have inflated the number quite a bit, creating some big time value on the UNDER. 

Note that the UNDER has been a really strong play in this series. All 4 meetings last year went UNDER the posted total set by the books and two of the 4 failed to reach 200 combined points. Going back even further, the UNDER has cashed in 13 of the last 16 meetings, including a dominant 9-1 mark when they meet up at Golden State. 

UNDER is also 33-18 in OKC's last 51 as an underdog and we could see this thing stay well below the mark if Russell Westbrook doesn't suit up for the Thunder. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Warriors OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals between the Warriors and Rockets. The last two games in this series have been extremely low-scoring given the offensive fire-power both of these teams possess. As a result we have seen the total go from 227.5 in Game 4 to 219.5 in Game 5 and now it's sitting at 212. 

I just don't think we are going to see the same intensity defensively from the Rockets in this one. Houston really suffered a big blow with the injury to Chris Paul, who we know for sure won't play in this one. I think his absence will really be felt on the defensive side of the ball. At the same time, the Warriors can't continue to play this poorly offensively. If Houston doesn't show up, they could put up a big number here. Take the OVER! 

3* Celtics/Cavs Total DESTROYER on Celtics/Cavs OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals, which has the Cavs hosting the Celtics. I think we are getting a favorable price here after an extremely low-scoring Game 5 in Boston, where the two teams combined for just 179 points with a total of 204.5. 

These two teams have really fed off their home crowd. Boston's energy and defense at home has made life miserable for Cleveland. In the 3 games played at the Celtics arena, the Cavs have scored 83, 94 and 83 points. It was a completely different story at home, where the scored 116 in Game 3 and 111 in Game 4, both times shooting at least 49% from the field. 

I look for the Cavs to be able to get that offense going once again at home in Game 6. I also think that Cleveland is starting to wear down and don't think the defensive intensity will be quite what it was in their previous 2 homes games. Keep in mind Boston scored 96 in Game 5, despite shooting a mere 36.5% from the field, so 100+ from them is well within reach. Take the OVER! 

3* Rockets/Warriors Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Rockets/Warriors UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals between the Rockets and Warriors. Golden State's 41-point blowout win in Game 3 saw a combined score of just 211 points. Two of the three games in the series have now finished UNDER the total. The only exception coming in Game 2, where it barely went over with a combined score of 232 and a total of 225. 

I just think the perception here is the Warriors will continue to light it up offensively and the Rockets can't be any worse than they were in Game 3. Houston will be better, but they are also going to bring a lot more intensity on defense. This a huge game for both sides. The Warriors want to take a 3-1 lead and the Rockets want to take back home court and go back to Houston tied 2-2. Expect max effort defensively from both teams, which should keep us below the mark. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Conference Finals TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cavs UNDER 

I love the value here with the UNDER on the total for Game 4 between the Celtics and Cavs. Each of the first 3 games in the series have all finished UNDER the mark set by the books and I think this has the potential to be the lowest scoring of them all. 

Cleveland's blowout win in Game 3 wasn't a huge shocker. Boston hasn't been great on the road this postseason and the Cavs were basically in a do-or-die situation already down 0-2 in the series. I really like the adjustments Cleveland made on the defensive side of the ball, as well as the all-out effort from James. They have no choice but to come out with that same intensity, as this one is just as important as the last. 

The key here is that we should get a much more focused and energized Boston team. They are going to make their adjustments and while the shots might not fall like they do at home, they can still make a game of this with their defensive effort and I expect them to do just that. I wouldn't be surprised if both teams failed to reach 95 in this one. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Playoffs Total NO-BRAINER on Celtics/Cavs UNDER 

I like the value here with UNDER in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Each of the first two games finished below the total set by the books. I'm expecting another low-scoring contest with Cleveland's backs against the wall. 

The Cavs are down 0-2 and are in a do-or-die scenario. That means we are going to get the very best Cleveland has to offer on the defensive side of the ball. At the same time, Boston's offense hasn't been nearly as efficient on the road as it has at home in the postseason. 

I also don't see Cleveland going off here. The Celtics have put together a great game-plan on how to defend the Cavs. They held them to 83 in Game 1 with a sub-par game from James and still held them to 94 in Game 2 with LeBron going off for 42 points and recording a triple-double. I wouldn't be shocked if both teams failed to reach 100 points in this one. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Playoffs 'Rockets/Warriors' Total NO-BRAINER on Warriors UNDER

You can check my free pick for who I would lean towards for the spread, but I believe the real value in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals is with the total. I think the books have set the bar way too high for this one. 

All the media talks about is the star power both of these teams have and how great both sides are on the offensive end of the floor. What people don't realize is just how good these two teams are defensively. These two are ranked 1-2 in defensive efficiency in the postseason and there's no question that both are going to be locked in on that side of the ball. 

UNDER is 12-1 this season in Rockets' games when they are listed anywhere from +3 to -3 on the spread. UNDER is also 5-1 in Houston's last 6 when playing on 3 or more days of rest. UNDER is 21-8-1 in the Warriors last 30 after giving up 100 or more in their previous game and 5-1 in their last 6 on the road. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Raptors/Cavs UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Game 4 between the Raptors and Cavs on Monday. After flying over the total in the first two games in Toronto, the two teams combined for just 208 points and finished well below the mark of 214 in Game 3. The deeper the series goes the better the defense gets for both sides, as they know what the other team is trying to do offensively. 

Throw in this being a big letdown spot for Cleveland with a commanding 3-0 lead and how big this game is for the Raptors, I think we are going to see the lowest-scoring game of the series so far. UNDER is now 5-1 in the Cavs last 6 at home and 5-2 in the Raptors last 7 away from home. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Celtics UNDER

I love the value here with the UNDER in Game 3 between the 76ers and Celtics. While the first two games of the series have went OVER, the scoring did drop off quite a bit from Game 1 to Game 2. After combining for 118 in Game 1, the two combined for just 111 in Game 2. I look for another drop in scoring here in Game 3. Boston hasn't been nearly as efficient offensively on the road. They scored just 92, 102 and 86 in their 3 games at Milwaukee in the first round. 

The other big key here is we are going to get everything the 76ers have on the defensive end with the series on the line down 0-2. They also aren't going to take their foot off the gas after blowing that 22 points lead in Game 2. I wouldn't be shocked if both teams failed to reach 100 points in this one. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Playoffs Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Jazz/Rockets UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Game 2 between the Rockets and Jazz. Game 1 ended up just finishing below the total at 206 points and that was with the Jazz shooting 50% from the field and the Rockets connecting on 17 3-pointers. Houston ended up winning the game by 14 points (110-96). 

I think we are going to see a much lower-scoring Game 2. Utah is going to lay it all on the line here to try and salvage a split before returning home for Game 3 and simply didn't play up their standards defensively in Game 1. As for the Rockets, everyone pays close attention to their offense, but this is a really good defensive team and I expect them to be a lot better here in Game 2. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cavs/Raptors UNDER

I love the value here with the UNDER in Game 1 between the Raptors and Cavs. I know these two teams have a lot of offensive fire-power, but this total is way too high for these two teams. Cleveland simply doesn't have the offensive fire-power it's had in the past and really have to rely on their defense to win. I also think we are seeing an inflated total here, as a lot of people think the Cavs won't show up after playing a Game 7 just 2 days ago, but I expect this team to come out ready to play. 

I actually think Cleveland matches up a lot better with Toronto than they did the Pacers. With that said the Raptors are a strong team and really turned up the defensive intensity over the final 3 games of their series with Washington. I expect an all-out effort defensively from Toronto in this one, as they are well aware of how critical these first two games at home are. 

UNDER is 22-10 in the Cavs last 32 games as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and UNDER is 21-8 in the last 29 meetings between these two teams in Toronto. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Sixers/Celtics OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Monday's Game 1 action between the 76ers and Celtics. Boston's defense was the difference down the stretch of their first round series against the Bucks, but this 76ers offensive attack is a whole different beast. On top of that, it's only human nature for the Celtics to suffer a bit of a letdown here after playing in a win-or-go-home Game 7 just two days ago. That should show up a lot more on the defensive side of the ball. 

Keep in mind that Philadelphia went up against a pretty strong Heat defense in their first round series and Miami couldn't keep them in check. The 76ers eclipsed 100 points in all 5 games, despite shooting under 43% in 3 of the 5 games. Philadelphia's tempo and ability to hit from long-range will be really hard for the Celtics to contain, especially with the 76ers being extremely well rested, as they last played almost a week ago (4/24). I look for both teams to eclipse the 100-point mark, making this an easy play for me. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Jazz/Rockets OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Sunday's NBA action that has the Rockets hosting the Jazz in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals. I just think the total here has been set way too low given how explosive the Rockets are on offense. Houston wasn't on their game early in their series against the Timberwolves, but they finished off Minnesota by scoring 119 and 124 in the final 2 games. Note they had 119 on the road in Game 4 despite shooting 43.5% from the field. 

I think a lot of their struggles early had to do with them coasting down the stretch run of the regular-season. The Rockets are locked in and are going to be fresh off a full 3 days of rest. I just don't see the Jazz putting up much of a fight defensively in Game 1, as they just laid it all on the line in their series against OKC, which just ended on Friday. At the same time Utah's offense doesn't get near the respect it deserves. I see this one finishing a lot close to 220 than 200. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Jazz/Thunder OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Game 5 between the Thunder and Jazz. Most times the deeper a series gets the more likely I'm to lean to the UNDER, but this is an exception. These two teams have went OVER the mark in 3 of the 4 games so far this series with the lowest combined total being 197. Each of the other 3 games all seen at least 209 points and I think we easily get to 210 in this one. 

The reason we are find value is the Jazz are viewed as a great defensive team, but they have went OVER in 11 of their last 15 games, as they are a much better offensive team than they get credit for. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Celtics UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Tuesday's matchup between the Celtics and Bucks. The series is tied up at 2-2, as each team held serve on their home court. This is a massive game for both sides, as it's now a best of 3 series and whoever takes Game 5 has a huge edge. Needless to say the defensive intensity will be taken up another notch tonight.

You also have to factor in that this is now the 5th game between these two teams in the last 10 days. Both teams are extremely familiar with each other's gamelans and the deeper we get into a series the more of an edge it is for the defenses. Look for both teams to struggle to get going offensively in this one. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Cavs OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Game 3 of the Cavs/Pacers series. The first two games of the series have been extremely low-scoring. The two combined for just 178 points in Game 1 with a total of 212.5 and 197 in Game 2 with a total of 213. The books have made quite the adjustment for Game 3 with a total almost 5-points lower. 

I just think tonight will be the night that these two light it up. The Pacers have really had their way with Cleveland's defense. The shot 46% from the field in Game 1 and 53% in Game 2. The Cavs defense doesn't figure to be as good on the road, while Indiana should be expected to shoot better at home. As for the Cavs offense, the role players simply can't play as poorly as they have in the first two games. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Bucks/Celtics UNDER

I love the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's early NBA playoff action that has the Celtics hosting the Bucks. A lot of people are writing off Boston after the injury to Kyrie Irving. While that almost certainly put an end to any hopes they had of making the NBA Finals, they still have more than enough talent to win a series or two. 

One thing that Boston will have to do without Irving is rely even more on their defense, as they aren't going to get as many easy looks offensively. I think it's going to be difficult for both teams to score here and don't see either side getting to 100 points. That makes this a pretty easy call with the total north of 200. 

UNDER is 7-2-1 in the Bucks last 10 conference quarterfinal matchups and 24-9 in the Celtics last 33 when playing in the first round of the postseason. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Spurs/Warriors UNDER

I love the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's Western Conference series opener between the Spurs and Warriors. While Golden State is the heavy favorite in the series despite Steph Curry being sidelined, there's no question that they aren't the same offensive juggernaut without him. 

San Antonio knows they have no chance of beating the Warriors in a shootout, even without Curry, and I look for Popovich and the Spurs to try and slow down the tempo as much as possible to keep Golden State out of a rhythm. I wouldn't be shocked at all if both teams failed to reach 100 points and this thing finished somewhere in the low 190s. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Jazz UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's huge showdown between the Jazz and Blazers. While both teams have already secured a spot in the playoffs, the No. 3 seed and home court in the first round will be on the line in this game. I expect a playoff-like atmosphere and as a result a much lower-scoring game than the books are expecting with this total. 

Utah has really been locked in defensively down the stretch. The Jazz just held the Warriors to 79 points in their last game and have held 7 of their last 8 opponents under the century mark. They figure to have a good shot at keeping the Blazers under that mark, as Portland's offense has been out of sync here of late. While the offense might not be there, the Blazers should bring their 'A' game defensively at home. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Warriors/Jazz UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Tuesday's NBA action that has the Jazz hosting the Warriors. Utah has clinched a playoff spot, but there's still a lot at stake. With a win over Golden State tonight, the Jazz will have a chance to overtake the Blazers for the No. 3 seed when they visit Portland tomorrow. Needless to say I think we get a great effort here from Utah, especially on the defensive side of the ball. 

As for the Warriors, they have nothing to play for and are just going through the motions right now. With Curry already out with an injury, Golden State isn't going to push any of their stars in these last couple meaningless regular season games. With that said, I do expect whoever plays for the Warriors to compete and that should be all we need here to keep this well below the mark set by the books. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Warriors/Suns OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Sunday's NBA action that has the Warriors visiting the Suns. Golden State has nothing to play for down the stretch, as they are locked into the No. 2 seed in the west. It's really shown of late on the defensive side of the ball, as the Warriors have given up 126 in each of their last 2 games, allowing the Pacers to shoot 53.8% from the field on Thursday and the Pelicans to shoot 56.3% yesterday. 

The offense for the Warriors has been much better of late and they should have no problem putting up a big number here against a horrible Suns defense. Phoenix comes in giving up 113.4 ppg and I wouldn't be shocked if Golden State got to 130 in this one. OVER is 6-1 in the Warriors last 7 when playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and 5-1 in the Suns last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Nets vs Bulls UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's NBA action that has the Bulls hosting the Nets. These two bottom feeders have absolutely zero to play for and I think it will be hard for both sides to get up for this game, as these two teams will turn around and play each other again on Monday. 

Clearly these are two of the least talented teams in the league and both sides have key players out with injury. They last played in late February and the two teams combined for a mere 191 points. I would expect a little more offense this time around, but with the total where it's at, this is simply too good of a price to pass up. 

UNDER is 5-0 in the Bulls last 5 vs a team with a losing record and a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in the series. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Warriors UNDER

I love the value here with the UNDER in Thursday's NBA action that has the Pacers hosting the Warriors. Golden State is locked into the No. 2 seed in the west, while Indiana is sitting 5th in the east, two games back of the Cavs and 76ers and 3.5 ahead of the Heat. There's just not a lot to play for here for either side, but I do think both teams are trying to stay in good form for the playoffs. 

Golden State's continues to play without Steph Curry and simply aren't as explosive offensively without him on on the court. Their highest point total in their last 8 games is 117 points and that was at home against the Suns. Indiana hasn't allowed more than 107 in their last 8. I think both teams are also going to limit their star players minutes, which will really make it tough for them to eclipse this number. 

UNDER is 20-9 in the Pacers last 29 non-conference games and 13-4 in their last 17 off a road loss. UNDER is also 21-7 in the Warriors last 28 after giving up 100+ points and 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs a good home team that's won 60% or more of their games at home. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under TOTAL DESTROYER on Pistons/Sixers OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Pistons hosting the 76ers. Philadelphia is really clicking on the offensive side of the ball right now and haven't missed a beat since Embiid went down with an injury. The 76ers put up 121 points in yesterday's 26-point blowout win over the Nets. Philadelphia has now scored 118 or more points in 7 of their last 8 games. 

Detroit's playoff hopes are hanging on by a threat. While it's highly unlikely they can make up the ground to get into the postseason, I don't see this team throwing in the towel until they are officially eliminated. Look for the Pistons to continue their offensive surge, as they come in averaging 111 ppg over their last 5. 

These two last played in Philadelphia back on Jan. 5th, which the 76ers won 114-78. That's worth noting, as the OVER is 10-2 in the Pistons last 12 when revenging a road loss of 10 or more. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Warriors/Thunder UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Tuesday's NBA action that has the Thunder hosting the Warriors. These two teams don't like each other and most of it stems from Durant leaving OKC to team up with the Warriors. I'm expecting a big time effort from both sides, which in turn should keep this game well under the total set here by the books. 

While Golden State is locked into the No. 2 seed in the west, there's a sense of urgency with the Warrior to start playing better going into the playoffs. At the same time, they aren't as prolific offensively without Curry and could struggle to get the offense rolling against a good OKC defense. As for the Thunder, they really need a win here. While Oklahoma City currently sits 5th in the West, they are just 2.5-games ahead of 9th place Denver. Most importantly, they don't want to fall back into the 7th or 8th spots and have to face Golden State or Houston in the first round. 

UNDER is 11-5 in the Warriors last 16 games overall and 7-1 in their last 8 vs a team with a winning record. UNDER is 5-1 in the Thunder's last 6 overall and 13-3 in their last 16 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Bulls/Magic UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Friday's NBA action that has the Bulls visiting the Magic. Both of these teams clearly have no interest in winning down the stretch and the offensive output has been atrocious for both sides. Chicago is averaging just 96 ppg over their last 5 and haven't score more than 105 in each of their last 6. It's been just as ugly offensively for the Magic, who are averaging just 95.2 ppg over their last 5 and haven't scored more than 105 in each of their last 6. 

The reason we are seeing such a high total is these two haven't been the best on the defensive side of the ball down the stretch, but I think if anything that's creating the value here, as there's just not enough offensive fire-power on either side for the total to be this high. 

UNDER is 14-6 in the Magic's last 20 home games with a total of 210 to 219.5. UNDER is also 12-4 in their last 16 when playing with double-revenge and a perfect 8-0 in the Bulls last 8 vs a team with a losing record. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Jazz OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Jazz hosting the Celtics. These are two strong defensive teams, but I just feel the number has been adjusted too much here because of all the injuries for Boston. The thing is the Celtics are a deeper team than they get credit for and have scored 100+ in each of their last 4 games. 

Utah just held the Warriors to 91 points in their last game, but that was against a Golden State team that was missing all their star players. Prior to that the Jazz had given up 124 to the Spurs and 112 to the Mavs. At the same time, Utah has scored 110 in each of their last 3 games.

I just think the total is too low here. OVER is 7-1-1 in the Celtics last 9 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. OVER is also 8-2 in Utah's last 10 vs a team with a winning record. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Grizzlies OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Grizzlies hosting the Blazers. This is a very low total for a game involving the Blazers, who have really been an offensive force for the last month and a half. You have to go back to a Feb. 11 game at home against the Jazz to find the last time Portland failed to reach 100 points in a game. 

They have gone under in each of their last two games, but keep in mind those were both against teams they were competing against for playoff spots in the Thunder and Pelicans. The most recent was last night's game at New Orleans. The key here is I don't see the Blazers being 100% locked in on the defensive side of the ball in this one. Not only are they going to be dealing with tired legs, playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and 3rd in 4 nights, but they aren't going to feel like they have to play their best to beat a team like Memphis. 

The Grizzlies aren't a great offensive team, but did just put up 101 in a shocking win at Minnesota and have eclipsed the century mark in 6 of their last 8 games. OVER is 14-3 in the Blazers last 17 after attempting 90+ shots in 2 straight games and 6-1 when playing on no rest after the starters logged 160+ minutes. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on T-Wolves/Hawks OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Timberwolves hosting the Hawks. Last time out we saw Minnesota suffer a shocking 93-101 home loss to the Grizzlies as a 13-point favorite. The offense was to blame for the defeat, as there's no excuse for scoring 93 points against a tanking Memphis team. The shots simply weren't falling for Minnesota, who hit on just 41.8% of their attempts. 

That snapped a streak of 9 straight games where the Timberwolves had scored at least 100 points. I think we see a big bounce back performance from Minnesota offensively in this one. Atlanta is in full on tank mode and I just don't see the Hawks being interested at all at playing defense in this game. They are coming off two much bigger games at Golden State and Houston and will be playing the final game of a 6-game road trip. Atlanta allowed 118 to the Rockets in their last game and have allowed 118 or more in 5 of their last 8 games. 

OVER is 29-16 in the Timberwolves last 45 home games with a total set between 210 and 219.5, 21-9 in their last 30 off an upset loss as a favorite and 8-1 in their last 9 off a home loss. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Mavs/Kings OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Tuesday's NBA action that has a couple of bottom feeders in the Mavs and Kings facing off in Sacramento. There's zero reason for either of these teams to get up for this game and that should result in very little defense being played by either side. 

That would be nothing new for the Mavs, who come in giving up 114.4 ppg over their last 5. The Kings have gone UNDER in 3 straight and 4 of 5, but I see these two having no problem going over the small mark set by the books in this one. These two teams last played in February and combined for 223 points with a total of 205.5. I think we see a similar output here, as this flies over the number. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER  on Nuggets UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's NBA action that has the 76ers hosting the Nuggets. After scoring 135 or more in back-to-back games, the Nuggets managed just 108 in their most recent game and I look for them to struggle to put up a big number here on the road against a 76ers team that is only giving up 103.1 ppg at home. 

I also don't see Philadelphia putting up a big number, as we should get a max effort here defensively from the Nuggets, who simply can't afford a loss given their current standings in the Western Conference playoff race and they should have some fresh legs having had the last 2 days off. 

Adding to all of this is a couple of great systems. UNDER is 46-13 (78%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 220 or more with one team having won at least 2 straight and the opponent having won 3 or more games. UNDER is also 41-13 (76%) when you have a total of 210 or more in the month of March with the home team working on a 4 or more game winning streak. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Heat UNDER

I like the value with the UNDER in Sunday's NBA action that has the Pacers hosting the Heat. This is a big game for both teams, as each is trying to position themselves for the postseason. Indiana is just a 1/2-game back of the 76ers for the No. 4 spot, while the Heat are just a 1/2-game ahead of the Bucks for the 8th and final spot. I expect a big effort from both sides on the defensive end and for this to go well below the number set by the books. 

UNDER is 18-8 in the Heat's last 26 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. UNDER is also 7-0 in the Pacers last 7 home games and 10-1 in their last 11 games vs a team from the Eastern Conference. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Spurs/Bucks OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Sunday's NBA action that has the Spurs visiting the Bucks. The OVER has cashed in each of Milwaukee's last 7 games. Every one of those games saw a combined score of at least 123. I know the Spurs are a great defensive team, but they did just allow 120 at home to the Jazz in their last game, which saw a combined score of 244. I just think there's too much value here to pass up with this total sitting where it is. 

OVER is 12-2 in the Bucks last 14 games after playing two straight games with a combined score of 215 or more and 10-1 in their last 11 after going OVER the total in 4 or more consecutive games. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Wolves UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's NBA action that has the 76ers hosting the Timberwolves. Both teams have put up some big numbers of late. Minnesota has scored 120+ in each of their last 2 games, while Philadelphia has scored 118 or more in 4 of their last 5. I believe we are seeing an inflated number because of this and there's simply too much value to pass up. 

UNDER is 14-4 in the 76ers last 18 games against an above average, but not elite team, that's won between 51% and 60% of their games in the 2nd half of the season. UNDER is also 10-1 in Philadelphia's last 11 games in the 2nd half vs teams who average 110 or more ppg. 

Adding to all of this is a great system in play. The UNDER is 40-11 (78%) in the month of March when you have a team on at least a 4-game winning streak and a total at or above 210 points. 

3* LATE INFO INSIDER

No Analysis on late releases

3* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Nets OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Nets hosting the Hornets. While Charlotte managed just 94 points in their last game at the 76ers, this is a team that had been rolling offensively before that contest. The Hornets were averaging 115.3 ppg over their previous 7 games. I think they have no problem here getting back on track offensively against the Nets, who have allowed 111 or more points in 9 of their last 10 games. 

Brooklyn should also be in store for a big game offensively. The Hornets have allowed at least 108 points in each of their last 7 games, and have given up 115 or more in 6 of those 7. Brooklyn has scored 114 or more in 3 straight games and keep mind they put up 125 at Charlotte earlier this month (3/8) in a game that saw a combined 236 points. While the books have adjusted some (total was 217 in the previous meeting), I think these two fly over the number again. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Rockets/Blazers OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Tuesday's showdown between the Rockets and Blazers. These are the two hottest teams in the NBA right now. Houston has won 5 straight and are 22-1 in their last 23 games, while Portland enters on a 13-game winning streak. 

While both are better defensively than they get credit for, I just think there's too much offensive fire-power for them to not reach at least 220 points. Houston is averaging 113.5 ppg on the season and the Blazers are scoring 115 ppg over their last 5. These two teams have played twice already this season. They combined for 141 in the first meeting at Portland and 133 in the matchup at Houston. 

OVER is 18-4 in the Blazers last 22 games in the 2nd half of the season vs elite teams that are outscoring opponents by 6+ points/game. OVER is also 15-5 in their last 20 in the 2nd half vs teams who average 110+ ppg. OVER is also 23-9 in the Rockets last 32 games vs a team with a winning record. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Grizzlies/Nets UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's NBA action that has the Grizzlies visiting the Nets. While Brooklyn is a team built to go over the total with a respectable offense and bad defense, Memphis is one of the worst teams in the league and come in averaging a mere 97.8 ppg on the season. 

The Grizzlies were able to snap a 19-game losing streak in their last game and did so by limiting the Nuggets to just 94 points. That's now two straight games where they have really played well defensively. The held the Bulls to just 43.7% shooting in their previous game. I look for another strong effort here, as they will try to snap a 14-game road losing streak. Note these two teams combined for a whopping 186 points in their only previous meeting this season. 

Brooklyn also won their last game and that's important to note, as the UNDER is 12-2 in the NEts last 14 home games after a win. UNDER is also 12-1 in the Grizzlies last 13 games with a total set between 210 and 219.5. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Nets UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Friday's NBA action that has the 76ers hosting the Nets. These two division rivals have a history of playing lower scoring games than what the books expect. The UNDER is 11-3-2 in the last 16 meetings and 5-1-1 in the last 7 games played in Philadelphia. 

With how well the 76ers are playing overall an especially at home, there's a good chance this gets out of hand and blowouts typically aren't all that high-scoring. You really need both teams to put up a lot of points to go OVER a mark like this. The Nets just aren't clicking offensively right now, as they are shooting just 43.7% from the field in their last 5 and only average 99.7 ppg vs division opponents. 

UNDER is 11-2 in Philadelphia's last 13 home games when playing against a bad team like the Nets, who have won between 25% to 40% of their games. UNDER is also 22-9 in Brooklyn's last 31 after 3 straight games with a combined score of 215 or more and 17-7 in their last 24 when revenging a home loss of 10 or more points. 

3* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Spurs OVER

I like the value with the OVER in Monday's NBA action that has the Rockets hosting the Spurs. Houston is coming off a couple of sub-par offensive showings in their last two games to close out a 4-game road trip, but still managed to score 105 in both of those games. They also played their last game without James Harden. With Harden expected back in the lineup tonight, I think we see the Rockets return to form and put up a big number here on a Spurs team that is struggling.

San Antonio has lost 4 of 5 and are just 2-8 in their last 10 games. They are giving up 110 ppg over their last 5. They did score just 94 in their last game against OKC, but had scored 100 or more in each of their previous 7 games. I think they get to at least the century mark here, which should push this well over the mark. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Magic UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's NBA action that has the Clippers hosting the Magic. While the Clippers have scored 116 or more in 4 straight games, I think we could see a much slower pace for LA tonight. The Clippers playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back after laying it all on the line at home last night against LeBron James and the Cavs. A game they won by 14. 

This is now a prime letdown spot for Los Angeles against a bottom feeder like the Magic. Orlando is a complete mess right now and the offense has really struggled of late. The Magic have failed to score 90 twice in their last 3 games. The key here is they have played some decent defense of late, as they are only allowing 100.4 ppg over their last 5. 

UNDER is 18-8 in the Magic's last 26 non-conference games and 10-1 in the Clippers last 11 home games off an upset win as a dog. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Lakers UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Lakers hosting the Magic. While these two teams have played in a lot of high-scoring games of late, both come in off a poor offensive showing. Orlando scored just 80 points and shot a mere 34.1% from the field in their last game at Utah, while LA scored just 103 and shot 39.5% from the field in their last game against the Blazers. 

UNDER is 7-1 in the Magic's last 8 games vs a team with a losing record and 11-2 in their last 13 vs the Western Conference. UNDER is also 15-3 in the last 18 meetings between these two teams when they face off in LA. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Nuggets OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Tuesday's NBA action that has the Nuggets visiting the Mavericks. Denver comes in scorching hot on the offensive side of the ball. They have scored 104  or more points in 14 straight games and have hit or eclipsed 110 points in 11 of those 14 games. They are averaging 118 ppg over their last 5. 

Dallas isn't a great offensive team, but are in good form, averaging 107 ppg over their last 4. I think they hit that mark and then some. As good as the Nuggets have been offensively, they have been just as bad defensively. Denver has given up 100+ in 14 straight and have allowed 12 of their last 13 opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. 

OVER is 21-8 in the Mavs last 29 home games after giving up 105 or more points in 3 straight games and 5-0 in their last 5 at home. OVER is also 14-4 in the Nuggets last 18 road games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games and 20-9 in their last 29 off 2 or more consecutive wins. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Suns/Heat OVER

I'm recommending a play on the OVER in Monday's NBA action that has the Suns visiting the Heat. In Phoenix's 6 games since the All-Star break they rank 1st in the league in pace of play and I think that up-tempo brand of basketball will help push this well over the mark. The Suns have scored 112.5 ppg in those 6 games since the break. As good as the offense has been, the defense has been equally bad, which explains why they are just 1-5 SU despite the offensive fire-works. Phoenix is giving up 116.3 ppg during this stretch. 

Miami is known more as a defensive team, but are just two games removed from allowing 131 to the Lakers on their home floor. They are also trending up offensively right now, as they have scored 100+ in 7 straight games and should have zero problem eclipsing that mark against this Suns defense, which might be lacking energy off that crushing last second loss to the Hawks yesterday. 

OVER is 8-3 in the Heat's last 11 overall and 4-0 in their last 4 games vs a team from the Western Conference. OVER is also 11-2 in the Suns last 13 road games when playing in the second game of a back-to-back set and 7-0 in their last 7 when their starting 5 logged more than 160 minutes the previous day. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Bucks UNDER

I think we are going to see a high-intensity game here on Sunday with the Bucks and 76ers facing off in Milwaukee. Both of these teams are trying to climb up the ranks in the Eastern Conference and I expect both to be highly motivated for a win. 

Philadelphia comes in playing their best basketball of the season, as they are 9-2 in their last 11 games. The 76ers will be motivated to keep that going. As for the Bucks, they come in having lost 4 straight and will be desperate for a win here. Note the UNDER has cashed in each of Philadelphia's last 4 games and each of Milwaukee's last 3 contests. 

Adding to all of this is a great system in play based off the Wizards recent struggles. The UNDER is 142-81 (64%) over the last 5 seasons in the month of March when you have a total greater than 200 in a game that involves a team that's lost 3 or more straight games. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Pacers UNDER

I love the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's NBA action that has the Wizards hosting the Pacers. Just 2-games separate these two teams in the Eastern Conference playoff race and I think both sides will be highly motivated here to get a win. 

Indiana snapped a short 2-game skid with an impressive 103-96 win at Milwaukee in their last game and should be motivated here to finish up their road trip with a .500 record at 2-2. As for Washington, they are looking to bounce back from back-to-back home losses to the Warriors and Raptors. 

It's also worth noting the UNDER has been a really strong play of late in Wizards' games. In fact, the UNDER has cashed in each of Washington's last 4 games. The Pacers have also played to the UNDER in each of their last 2 games and is 9-2-1 in Indiana's last 12 road games and 5-0-1 in their last 6 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Warriors/Hawks OVER

I recommending playing the OVER in Friday's NBA action that has the Hawks hosting the Warriors. We can pretty much bank on Golden State putting up a big number here offensively. The Warriors haven't scored fewer than 105 points in 11 straight games and are averaging 119.4 ppg over their last 5. Atlanta doesn't have the talent or scheme defensively to slow them down. 

The key here is I don't think we are going to see Golden State bring the defensive intensity against an inferior opponent in what's the final game of a 3-game road trip and a nice 3-day break looming after this contest. I think we get a very similar type of game to the Warriors recent road game against the Knicks, where they won 125-111. 

OVER is 6-2-1 in the Warriors last 9 games vs a team with a losing record. It's also 13-4 in the Hawks last 17 home games vs a team with a winning road record and 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs a top tier team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Nets UNDER

I like the value in the UNDER for Thursday's NBA action that has two of the league's worst going at it in the Kings and Nets. These are two of the worst offenses in the league. The Kings rank dead last in offensive efficiency and the Nets are far behind at 26th. Note they played once already this season and combined for a mere 203 points in a 104-99 Sacramento win at Brooklyn. I'm expecting a similar outcome here. 

UNDER is 9-2 in the Kings last 11 games vs the Eastern Conference and 12-3 in their last 15 after allowing 105 or more points in 4 straight games. UNDER is also 6-2 in the Nets last 8 vs a team with a losing record, 20-8 in their last 28 off a SU loss and 12-4 in their last 16 when revenging a home loss to an opponent. 

Adding to this is a great system in play. The UNDER is 46-18 (72%) going all the way back to 1996 when you have a total of 210 to 219.5 where you have a bad team (Win pct. 25% to 40%) off a road loss by 10 or more (Kings) and are playing another team with a losing record. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Pacers OVER 

I like the value here with the OVER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Hawks hosting the Pacers. These two teams faced off last Friday in the first game out of the break for both sides and the two teams combined for 209 points with Atlanta mustering a mere 93 points. 

The key here to this one being even higher scoring is that the Hawks should be more of a threat offensively at home, as the Pacers are not the same team defensively on the road. On the flip side of this, we should see a similar offensive outburst from Indiana, as Atlanta is equally bad on the defensive end at home as they are on the road. 

OVER is 5-1 in the Hawks last 6 off a loss by 10 or more and 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs a team with a losing road record. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under TOTAL NO-BRAINER on Rockets UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's late night NBA action between the Rockets and Nuggets. Houston is a team the public absolutely loves to back the OVER because of their offensive fire-power. What people overlook with all the points the Rockets put up is how well they are playing defensively. Houston ranks in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency and have allowed 108 or fewer points in 8 of their last 9, with 6 of those being 102 points or less. 

A big key here is that the Rockets will be playing without Eric Gordon, who is 3rd on the team in scoring at 18.5 ppg and primarily has been their biggest spark off the bench. I think that disrupts the rhythm enough to keep Houston from putting up a big number here. 

This will surprise a lot of people, but the UNDER is 11-2 in the Rockets last 13 games against other teams from the west. It's also 10-4 in their last 14 road games and 5-1-1 in their last 7 road games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Celtics UNDER

I love the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's NBA action that has division rivals Boston and New York going head-to-head at Madison Square Garden. The Celtics returned from the All-Star break with a 110-98 win at Detroit. Their defense held the Pistons to just 43.5% shooting and my money is on another big effort on the defensive side of the ball tonight.

New York put up 120 in a win over the Magic in their last game, but that's nothing to get excited about. This is still a very limited Knicks offense without Porzingis and last time they faced the Celtics they managed just 73 points. Adding to this is the fact that each of the last 4 meetings in the series have seen 204 or fewer combined points with all 3 meetings this seasons failing to eclipse the 200 mark. Take the UNDER! 

3* LATE INFO INSIDER 

5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bulls/76ers UNDER

I really like the value here with the UNDER in Thursday's NBA action that has the Bulls hosting the 76ers. Chicago's offense simply isn't as potent following the trade of Mirotic and they went into the break averaging just 101 ppg over their last 5. Philadelphia on the other hand really got their defense going in the final games before the break, as they allowed just 95.2 ppg over their last 5, while holding opponents to just 41.3% from the field. 

I think that combination will be more than enough to keep this below the mark set by the books. It also helps the game is being played in Chicago, as we should get a big effort here from the Bulls defensively at home.

It's also worth noting the Bulls went into the All-Star break having failed to cover the spread in each of their final 3 games. That's important, because the UNDER is 23-8 in Chicago's last 31 games after failing to cover 3 or more games in a row. UNDER is also 13-4 in the Bulls last 17 home games in the 2nd half of the season vs strong offensive teams that average 106 or more points/game. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Hawks/Bucks OVER

Last time out the Bucks combined with the Magic for 115 points, finishing well over the total posted for that game of 208.5. That snapped a streak of 9-straight games for Milwaukee that had gone UNDER the total. I think we saw a big overreaction from that streak in their game against Orlando, who is awful defensively and not a team the Bucks are going to get up for. I see a very similar scenario here with this game against Atlanta. 

The Hawks are in full on rebuilding mode, and as you might expect for a team that's basically tanking for the future, they aren't great on the road. Atlanta is just 5-22 away from home and a big reason for that is their defense, which gives up 109.3 ppg, while allowing their opponents to shoot 47% from the field. Milwaukee should be able to score at will here. With the All-Star break just around the corner, I don't think we see a great defensive effort here from the Bucks, which should allow the Hawks to provide more than an enough here to push this over the mark. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors UNDER

I love the value here with the UNDER in today's early action that has the Raptors visiting the Hornets. I think it's hard for NBA teams to get in a flow offensively in these early games on Sunday, especially this late in the season. These two teams combined for 140 points in their previous meeting back in December, which I believe has this total way too high. 

Toronto has been locked in defensively over their current 4-game winning streak. The Raptors have held their opponents to just 92.5 ppg and have held each of their last 3 opponents under 40% from the field. I think there's a good chance they keep it going here against a Hornets team that has shot poorly in each of their last two games and managed just 94 points in their last game against the Jazz. 

UNDER is 5-1 in the Raptors last 6 games off a win and 4-1 in the Hornets last 5 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. 

Adding to all of this is a great system in play. The UNDER is 74-39 (66%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a total north of 200 where they home team comes in having failed to cover the spread in 3 or more games and are on little rest, playing their 3rd game in a 4 day span. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA WESTERN CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER

I love the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Jazz visiting the Grizzlies. I know Utah has been putting up some big offensive numbers of late, but I think we could see them struggle to put up a big number here against Memphis. The pace here figures to be  a lot slower than the last few games for the Jazz, plus they have to be a bit fatigued here playing their 4th straight on the road. 

The Grizzlies have decided to sit out arguably their biggest offensive threat in Tyreke Evans until the trade deadline passes. In the 4 games without him the offense hasn't scored more than 102 points and have failed to eclipse 90 in their last 2 games. Memphis has no choice but to slow down the pace without Evans and this isn't a spot where they will look to push it playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. 

UNDER is 11-3 in the Grizzlies last 14 after losing 3 or more straight games, 4-1 in their last 5 following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 7-2 in their last 9 home games following a road trip of 7 o more days. UNDER is also 23-8 in the last 31 meetings between these two teams in Memphis. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Raptors/Celtics UNDER

I really like the value here with the UNDER in the total for Tuesday's big Eastern Conference showdown that has Atlantic Division rivals Toronto and Boston facing off. It's no secret that the Celtics are an elite defensive team and we have to believe they will bring their "A" game on that side of the ball against the Raptors, as Boston comes in having allowed just 93.7 ppg in their 11 division games this season. 

So while Toronto comes in averaging 111.4 ppg, there's a good chance they don't come anywhere close to that. The Raptors have been such a good team offensively, people overlook how well they have been playing on the defensive side of the ball. Toronto is only giving up 101.3 ppg at home and have allowed just 99.2 ppg in division games. They are 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Opponents are making just 44.9% of their field goal attempts (6th) and a mere 34.8% of their 3-point shots (4th). As good as Boston is defensively, they are just 24th in scoring at 103.2 ppg and their 44.9% field pct also ranks 24th. Take the UNDER 206! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Celtics OVER 

I like the value here with the OVER in Sunday's NBA action that has the Celtics taking on the Blazers. Most will just blindly take the UNDER here due to Kyrie Irving not playing for Boston, but I actually think the books have over-adjusted for this one. 

Boston has scored 100+ in 6 straight games and have shot 47% or better from the field in each of their last 3. Portland is also rolling offensively right now. The Blazers come in off a 25-point loss at Toronto, despite shooting 51% from the field. The second straight game they made more than half their shots. As good as the Celtics are defensively, I don't think we get a great effort from Boston on that side of the ball today. 

OVER is 22-9 in the Celtics last 31 home games after winning 3 of their last 4 and 12-2 in their last 14 home games after scoring 115 or more points in their previous game. Take the OVER!