Register for an Account Now for Free Picks and More Special Offers!
Jimmy Boyd NBA Totals Picks
| Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-20-14 | Utah Jazz v. Charlotte Hornets OVER 191.5 | Top | 86-104 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
|
5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Year on Hornets/Jazz OVER Both of these teams played last night and their key players logged a lot of minutes. When NBA players get tired their defensive effort is the first to go so I think we’ll see this one easily go over the total tonight. The Jazz have now gone over in 5 of their last six, having shot over 50% and scoring more than 100 points in their last three games. Last night they played in Orlando and all five starters logged over 30 minutes. Charlotte last night got the opportunity to get their offense fine tuned against the Sixers and scored 109 points. Walker played 38 minutes and Jefferson 36 while Kidd-Gilchrist and Henderson both played over 30. The Bobcats have now gone over the total in 4 of their last 5, 6 of their last 8, and 11 of their last 14. I think you’ll see them get past this total once again here tonight. Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. The OVER is 32-11 over the last 5 seasons in games played on Saturday with a total of 190 to 199.5 with a road team off an upset win as an underdog. That's a 74% system in favor of this one to go above the mark. Take the OVER! |
|||||||
| 12-15-14 | Detroit Pistons v. Los Angeles Clippers OVER 204 | 91-113 | Push | 0 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
|
4* NBA Non-Conference Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Clippers OVER The books have set mark the too low for tonight's showdown between the Clippers and Pistons. Los Angeles is going to be extra motivated here after dropping each of their last two on the road to the Wizards and Bucks. The Clippers didn't shoot well in either of those games, hitting below 43% in both contests. I look for the offense to get back on track at the Staples Center, where LA is averaging 106.7 ppg and shooting an impressive 47.4% from the field. Another big key here to the Clippers offense having their way in this one, is the Pistons aren't going to have the energy defensively in this one. Detroit will be playing their 3rd road game in a span of 4 days. The Pistons have also struggled against LA, allowing at least 104 points in each of the last 4 meetings. In the last two at the Staple Center, these two teams have combined for 115 and 126 points, which just goes to show the value we are getting here with a total of just 204. OVER is 28-12 in the Pistons last 40 games against a team with a winning record and 8-1 in the Clippers 9 games this season against a team that is allowing 99+ points/game. Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. OVER is 45-12 since 1996 in games where you have a team off 2 consecutive road wins by 5 points or less in the first half of the season. That's a 79% system in favor of this one finishing above the mark. Take the OVER! |
|||||||
| 12-15-14 | Boston Celtics v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 206 | 105-87 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
|
3* NBA Total Annihilator on Celtics/76ers OVER 206 While these two teams combined for just 191 points at Philadelphia back on Nov. 19, that was the first time in the last 4 meetings where they failed to combine for at last 213 points. I believe it's created some great value here, as we have two of the worst defensive teams in the league going at it. The Celtics are allowing 108.5 ppg on the road and the 76ers are giving up 108.7 ppg at home. Not only do we have two teams here that don't play any defense, but we have two teams that love to push the pace. The Celtics are tied with the Warriors with the fastest pace in the league at 100.4 (number of possessions/game). The next best team in terms of pace behind Boston and Golden State is the 76ers at 99.2. With the Celtics coming off a full two days of rest and the 76ers off yesterday, we should see more than enough possessions and easy baskets to push this game well over the mark of 206. OVER is 21-7 in the Celtics last 28 against the Eastern Conference, 6-2 in their last 8 road games versus a team with a losing home record and 12-4 in their last 16 after a game where they failed to cover the spread. The OVER is also 5-2 in the 76ers last 7 home games and 33-19 in their last 52 home games after two or more consecutive losses. These trends combine to form a 69% (77-34) system. Take the OVER! |
|||||||
| 12-14-14 | Toronto Raptors v. New York Knicks UNDER 200 | 95-90 | Win | 102 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
|
4* Knicks/Raptors NBA Total No Brainer on UNDER The books have set the total too high in today's matchup between the Knicks and Raptors. These two Atlantic Division rivals have a history of playing low scoring games at New York. In their two meetings at the Garden last year they combined for 178 points and 187. You have to go back to 2011 to find the last time that these two teams combined for more than 194 points in New York. The Knicks are going to be playing with a lot of confidence here after finally snapping their skid with a 101-95 win at Boston on Friday. New York has really slowed the pace down this year. Only Miami (91.5) plays at a slower pace than the Knicks. The key here is that while they are just 3-9 SU at home, they have been able to dictate the tempo at home. New York is averaging just 91.4 ppg and allowing only 94.8 ppg at MSG this season. UNDER is 5-1 in the Knicks last 6 home games and 4-1 in their last 5 against a division opponent. The UNDER is also 5-2 in Toronto's last 7 after a game where they covered the spread and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 games following a SU win by more than 10 points. These trends combine to form a 83% (19-4) system backing this one to go below the mark! Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
| 12-14-14 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Minnesota Timberwolves UNDER 213 | 100-94 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
|
3* NBA Total Dominator on Timberwolves/Lakers UNDER While these are two of the worst defensive teams in the league, I think the total here has been set too high. The Lakers are coming off a draining win at San Antonio on Friday and I just don't see them looking to push the pace at all tonight. This will also be the 2nd time that these two teams have faced off in the last month and I look for a more inspired effort defensively from the Lakers than the first meeting, which resulted in a 1-point home loss. The other key here is that both of these team are not all that great offensively. The Lakers are only averaging 97.6 ppg over their last 5 and the Timberwolves are even worse at 96.2 ppg over their last 5. The UNDER is 5-1 in Los Angeles' last 6 and 3-0 in the Timberwolves last 3. The UNDER is also a strong 15-4 in Minnesota's last 19 home games against terrible defensive teams that are allowing opponents to shoot 48% or better from the field. Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. The UNDER is 41-15 when you have a total of 200 or more points with a home team that is off a loss by 10 or more points to a division rival playing on a Sunday. That's 73% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
| 12-09-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 204.5 | 105-114 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
|
3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Mavs/Grizzlies UNDER With the Grizzlies having lost two of their last three, including a 101-107 home loss to the Spurs last Friday, I look for Memphis to be all business against the Mavericks tonight, especially considering Dallas took 3 of 4 against the Grizzlies last year. With the Mavs coming in leading the league in scoring at 110.6 ppg, I believe it's resulted in an inflated total here. Memphis has the leagues' best defense, allowing just 93.5 ppg. Look for the Grizzlies to slow this game way down and really make Dallas work on both sides of the ball. It's also worth noting that this will be the Grizzlies 3rd straight home game and they are well rested. Memphis hasn't played back-to-back games since early November. Adding to this is the fact that the UNDER is 12-2 the Grizzlies last 14 games after playing two straight games as a home favorite. Average score in these games is just 184.1. While the Mavericks have went over the total in 13 of 22 games this season, the UNDER is 5-2 in Dallas' last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record. We also find a strong system in play. UNDER is 30-8 since 1996 when you have a total of 200 or more with a road team that has gone over the total in 5 or more consecutive games who are an excellent offensive team (102+ ppg) and average defensively (92-98 ppg). That's a 79% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
| 12-07-14 | Washington Wizards v. Boston Celtics UNDER 206 | 93-101 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
|
4* Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Wizards/Celtics UNDER The books have set the total too high in Sunday's matchup between the Wizards and Celtics. This is an early tip-off for the NBA and I think it's going to have both not playing up to their full potential. Washington has been the better of the two teams and should be able to dictate the tempo. The Wizards are only giving up 92.6 ppg over their last 5 games. The Celtics have been playing better defensively of late. They held Detroit to just 102 (88 in regulation) and the Lakers to just 96 in their last two games. UNDER is 43-26 over the last 3 seasons when Washington takes on a up-tempo team who averages 83 or more shots. It's also 32-14 in the Celtics last 46 home games after two straight covers as a favorite. We also see a strong system in play. The UNDER is 26-6 since 1996 with a total of 200 or more where you have a road team off 3 straight blowout wins by 15 or more points. That's a 81% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
| 11-18-14 | New York Knicks v. Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 189.5 | 113-117 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
|
3* Knicks/Bucks NBA Total Annihilator on UNDER The books have set the total too high for this one. Both the Bucks and Knicks have really struggled to get anything going offensively so far in 2014. Milwaukee comes in ranked 28th in scoring at 91.8 ppg and the Knicks aren't far behind at 25th with just 93.9 ppg. The Knicks just haven't figured out the triangle offense and as a result they are playing slower than any team in the league. New York is dead last in pace at 91.8. New York's slow tempo and inability to get easy baskets is going to make it extremely hard for them to put up a big number against a Bucks team that is playing hard defensively. Milwaukee is 4th in the league right now, allowing just 92.6 ppg and have been even better than that at home, where they are only giving up 86.5 ppg. It's also worth noting that the Bucks have not played well offensively at home. They comes in averaging just 89.2 ppg and are shooting just 41.0% from the field at home. I look for the Knicks to give this team a lot of trouble. New York's biggest weakness defensively has been guarding the 3-point shot. They are allowing opponents to hit 42% from long-distance this season. Milwaukee is not a team built to beat you from the outside. The Bucks are dead last in the NBA hitting just 29.6% of their 3-point shots. On the flip side of this, Milwaukee is very good at defending the 3-pointer. They are allowing opponents to hit just 26% from the outside at home. UNDER is 14-4 in Milwaukee's last 18 games against teams who are shooting 39% or better from 3-point range and a perfect 7-0 this season versus teams who are making 6 or more 3-pointers per game. UNDER is also a perfect 7-0 in the Bucks last 7 after playing their previous game as an underdog. These trends combine to form a dynamite 88% (28-4) system. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
| 06-05-14 | Miami Heat v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 199 | Top | 95-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
|
5* NBA Finals Total of the Year on the UNDER The books have set the total way too high for Game 1. Both teams understand the importance of each game and that's going to lead to max effort on the defensive end. Miami has the perimeter defense to make things difficult for the Spurs offensively and San Antonio is one of the better teams in the league when it comes to defending LeBron James. You also have to factor in the nerves that come with playing in the Finals and the long layoff from the conference finals will likely have both teams out of sync offensively early on. If you look back at last year's Finals matchup between these two teams, they combined for just 180 points in Game 1. They didn't score more than 190 points in the series until Game 4. It's also worth noting that the total for Game 1 last year was just 190 points. In fact the highest total set for any game in the series was 191.5 points. The value is clearly on the under at 199. The UNDER is 36-13 (73.5%) for road teams when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MIAMI) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games. The UNDER is also 24-6 (80%) for all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game.Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
| 05-31-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 206.5 | 112-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
|
3* NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on OVER These two teams have finished under the total in each of the last 4 games in the series, despite the fact that at least one team has scored 100+ in every game. I look for a much more competitive game than what we have had to this point and I believe that creates a lot of value on the over. San Antonio is averaging 106.2 ppg in the playoffs and the Thunder aren't far behind at 102.2 ppg. The Spurs appear to have figured out Oklahoma City's defense and you can bank on the Thunder being at their best offensively at home, where they are averaging 107.5 ppg on the season. The OVER is 20-8 in the Spurs last 28 games after 3 or more consecutive games that finished under the total. That's a solid 71% system in play. Take the OVER 206.5! |
|||||||
| 05-20-14 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 185 | Top | 87-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
|
5* NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Pacers/Heat UNDER While the Heat and Pacers combined to score 203 points and crush the total of 182 in Game 1, I'm not expecting that to keep up. It's not uncommon for the first game of a series to be high-scoring. Both teams shot better than 51% from the field in the first game, which won't hold up. Miami is only allowing 93.7 points in the playoffs and Indiana is only giving up 90.3 in the postseason. With Miami desperately needing a win to fall behind 0-2 and Indiana looking to make sure they leave with the homecourt advantage in tact, I look for both teams to lay it all on the line defensively in this one. I wouldn't be surprised at all if both teams failed to reach 85 points. Prior to the offensive explosion in Game 1, these two teams had scored fewer than 185 points in 7 of their 8 previous matchups, including each of the previous 3 at Indiana. The UNDER is 30-17 in the Pacers last 47 games off a double-digit home win, 33-13 in their last 46 games with a total set between 180 and 189.5 and 45-27 in the Heat's last 72 road games when playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. That's a strong 65% system. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
| 05-01-14 | Indiana Pacers v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 188 | Top | 95-88 | Win | 100 | 54 h 43 m | Show |
|
5* NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Hawks/Pacers UNDER The fate of the Pacers season rest on this game and I expect their defense to show up after allowing the Hawks to shoot 50% from the field in Game 5. Keep in mind that Indiana had held Atlanta under 40% shooting in each of the previous three games and all three of those contests finished under the total. In the two games in this series played at Atlanta, the most these two teams have combined to score is just 183 points. In fact, each of the last 5 meetings, including the regular season, have all been extremely low scoring (184 or less) when these two teams play at Philips Arena. It doesn't come as a huge surprise, as the UNDER is 21-9 in the Hawks last 30 home games against good defensive teams that are holding opponents to 43% or less shooting. The UNDER is also 16-5 in Atlanta's last 21 home games in the 2nd half of the season against teams with a winning record. These two massive trends combine to form a huge 73% (37-14) system in favor of the UNDER! |
|||||||
| 04-26-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 202 | 108-109 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
|
3* NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on Mavericks/Spurs UNDER The books have set the mark too high in Game 3 between the Spurs and Mavericks. While these two teams combined for 205 points in Game 2, that was with both teams shooting extremely well from the field. Dallas shot 48.9%, while the Spurs connected on exactly 50% of their attempts. The thing to keep in mind is that these two teams are now very familiar with one another by this point and let's not forget the combined for a mere 175 points in Game 1. The UNDER is 90-58 in the Spurs last 148 games when they are revenging a straight up loss to an opponent as a favorite and the average total in these games is just 187.2 points. The UNDER is also 6-1 in San Antonio's last 7 games after allowing 100 or more points and 5-1 in the Mavericks' last 6 after they scored 100 or points last time out. The UNDER is 68-30 in Game 3 of a playoff series with a total set at 200 or more points and 42-14 since 1996 when this takes place in the first round. That's a 75% system in favor of the UNDER! |
|||||||
| 04-20-14 | PORTLAND GM1 v. HOUSTON GM1 OVER 214 | 122-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
|
3* NBA Playoffs Total Dominator on Rockets/Blazers OVER - I know the playoffs are suppose to bring out the best in teams defensively, but there's simply too much offensive fire-power between the Rockets and Trail Blazers. Houston finished 2nd in scoring at 107.7 ppg, while Portland was 4th at 106.7 ppg. The big key here is that both teams love to play at a fast pace, which should have both teams flying over their season averages. Oddsmakers simply didn't set the bar high enough with this number. In the season series the fewest these two combined to score was 215 points and that was with the two combining to go 13 for 47 (27.7%) from the 3-point line. The OVER is 10-1 in the Trail Blazers last 11 games against a team with a winning percentage between 60% to 70% and 8-1 in the Rockets last 9 in the same situation. It's also 12-3 in Portland's 15 games this season versus teams who attempt 27 or more free throws per game and 14-4 in the Rockets last 18 games in the 2nd half against teams who average 83 or more shots/game. Total that's a 44-9 (83%) system in favor of the OVER! |
|||||||
| 04-19-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Los Angeles Clippers OVER 210.5 | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
|
4* NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on Clippers/Warriors OVER I know playoff games have a strong tendency to go UNDER the total, but I don't think the books have set the bar high enough for the Clippers and Warriors. Los Angeles led the NBA in scoring at 107.9 ppg and the Warriors were 10th at 104.3 ppg. If the two teams were to simply put up their average, we would be over the total by 1-point. That might not seem like a lot of value, but you have to remember the Warriors are without Andrew Bogut, who is one of the top rim protectors in the league and a huge reason why Golden State finished 10th in scoring defense (99.5 ppg). Without Bogut the Warriors are going to have to play a smaller lineup, which I believe is going to force them to rely even more on the outside shot and play at a faster pace to try and get some easy baskets in transition. The Clippers love to play up-tempo and I look for them to score at will against the Warriors at home. The OVER is 14-4 in the Clippers last 18 home games in the month of April, 5-1 in their last 6 first round playoff games, 19-7 in their last 26 home games versus a team with a winning record and 12-4 when they are playing a team who won more than 60% of their games. It's also 4-1 in the Warriors last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. That's a 76% (54-17) Massive System in favor of the OVER! |
|||||||
| 04-06-14 | New York Knicks v. Miami Heat UNDER 188.5 | 91-102 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
|
4* NBA Total No Brainer on Knicks/Heat UNDER
I look for Sunday's showdown between the Knicks and Heat to finish well below the posted total. I expect both teams to bring the defensive intensity. New York desperately needs this game, as they are one game back of Atlanta for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference with just 5 games left on the schedule. Miami on the other hand is tied with the Pacers for the top spot. Adding some value to the UNDER is the fact that this game will tip off at 1:00 EST, which could have the offenses coming out flat with the early start time. Both of these teams come in playing extremely well defensively. The Knicks are allowing just 90.0 ppg over their last 5 and the Heat are only giving up 85.4 over their last 5. Oddsmakers have pretty much informed us that the game will be a defensive battle. Despite the fact that these two teams have combined for at least 190 points in each of three previous meetings (no total was lower than 197.5 for the game), we have a total for this one set below 190. They are clearly trying to get money on the over and I'm showing just over 60% of the bets right now being placed on the over. The UNDER is 15-5 in the Knicks last 20 games versus teams with a winning record and 5-0 in their last 5 overall. It's also a perfect 6-0 in the Heat's last 6 versus a team with a losing record and 10-2 in their last 12 off a SU loss. Combined that's a 36-7 (84%) angle favoring this game to finish below the mark. |
|||||||
| 04-05-14 | Chicago Bulls v. Washington Wizards UNDER 183 | 96-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
|
4* NBA Total Dominator on Bulls/Wizards UNDER
I expect a defensive battle tonight in Washington. Both these teams are fighting for playoff position. The Bulls are currently tied with the Raptors for 3rd in the East, while the Wizards are just 1.5-games back of 5th place Brooklyn and 2 games in front of 7th place Charlotte. Washington isn't as worried about catching the Nets as they are avoiding 7th and 8th, where they would have to face off against either Miami or Indiana in the first round. Not only are these two of the better teams in the league in terms of defensive efficiency, but the big key is that neither look to push to the pace. Washington ranks 18th with an average of 95.6 possessions and the Bulls are way down there at 28th with just 92.8. I expect an even slower pace than what we normally see from these two, as both are in the second game of a back-to-back. On top of that, this will be Chicago's 5th game in the last 7 days and the Wizards 6th in the last 9 days. The UNDER is 23-10 in the Bulls last 33 when playing on no rest, 16-6 in Chicago's last 22 with a line of +3 to -3, 17-7 in the Wizards last 24 when listed as a home favorite of 6 or less and 20-7 in Washington's last 27 in the second half of the season versus teams who have won between 51% to 60% of their games. Combined that's a 76-30 (72%) system! |
|||||||
| 04-04-14 | Washington Wizards v. New York Knicks UNDER 196.5 | 90-89 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
|
3* NBA Total Annihilator on Wizards/Knicks UNDER
Due to recent performances, I believe the bar has been set too high in this one. The Wizards put up 118 against the Celtics last time out, while the Knicks scored 110 against the Nets. Even with those offensive outburts, we see that Washington is only averaging 99.4 ppg over the their last 5 and New York putting up just 97.2 ppg over their last 5. This is an important game for both teams. While the Wizards have clinched a playoff spot, they are currently sitting in 6th place, just 2 games ahead of Charlotte. The last thing they want to do is to fall back to 7th and have to play either Miami or Indiana in the first round. The Knicks on the other hand are fighting for their playoff lives. While they are technically ahead of the Hawks for the 8th and final spot, Atlanta has one fewer losses. With so much at stake, I expect both teams to bring it on the defensive end tonight. There's also a strong system that supports a play on the UNDER. Since 1996 the UNDER has gone 23-4 in games with a total of 190 to 199.5 where the road team enters having scored 55 or more in the first half of two straight games against an opponent who scored 60 or more in the first half of their last contest. That's a 85% system in favor of the UNDER! |
|||||||
| 03-26-14 | Denver Nuggets v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 216.5 | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Annihilator on Nuggets/Spurs UNDER -
The value in this matchup is clearly on the under. Over their last five games the Supers have been playing incredibly well on defense. They are holding opponents to just 94.6 points per game during that stretch. The team is already solid defensively when playing at home, allowing just 97.5 points per game on the season. When the Spurs are covering spreads it is generally because they are playing well on defense. The under is 31-13 in home games when San Antonio has covered the spread in eight or more of their last 10 games. The under is 62-34 in Denver's road games when facing an opponent from the Southwest division. This matchup also fits into a very profitable system to play the under. You should take the under when the total is 210 points or more, and one of the teams (Denver) is revenging a loss where their opponent scored 100 points or more, and they are off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more. This system has a 71-38 (65%) record in favor of the under. |
|||||||
| 03-25-14 | Toronto Raptors v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 195 | 100-102 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Dominator on Raptors/Cavs UNDER -
Both of these teams are playing with a day of rest so this matchup should play out to be a defensive battle. The Raptors have surrendered an average of just 97.4 points per game on the road this season. They are facing a Cavaliers team that is not known for scoring a lot of points. Cleveland comes into this matchup averaging 97.3 points per game, and against a tough defense like Toronto's I think that number will be even lower today. While Cleveland may not score a lot of points, the Cavaliers are a much better team defensively than they get credit for. Cleveland has held opponents to 99.3 points per game when playing at home. That bodes well for the under since Toronto's offensive production takes a big hit in road games. Both teams are playing with key injuries, and I think that will also have a big impact on the total score. You should play the under when the total is 190 to 199.5 points and one of the teams (Toronto) is off a home win by 10 points or more, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off an upset win as a road underdog. This system has a 142-93 (60%) record in favor of the under. It is also worth noting that the under is 10-1 when Cleveland is coming off a road win, and it is 16-4 when Toronto is playing a team winning 25 to 40 percent of its games in the the second half of the season. |
|||||||
| 03-21-14 | Chicago Bulls v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 181 | 79-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Dominator on Bulls/Pacers UNDER -
The Chicago Bulls have played great defense all season, but it seems as though they save there best work for division opponents. Chicago has surrendered a mere 87.1 points per game against division opponents this season. If you are worried about how the defense will do on the road there is no cause for concern. First of all, its a short road trip to Indiana, but the Bulls have also held opponents to just 92.4 points per game on the road this season. The Indiana Pacers have also played some outstanding defense. Indiana allows a mere 87.1 points per game at home this season, and they have held division opponents to a similar number at 89.7 points per game. Both of these teams are coming into this matchup with a day of rest which always seems to help on the defensive end of the court. It is also worth noting that Chicago has gone under the total in two of its last three games while Indiana has gone under in four of its last five games. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the under. You should play the under when the total is between 180 to 189.5 points, in a game involving two good defensive teams allowing a shooting percentage of 41.5 to 43.5 percent and two good rebounding teams that are +3 to +5.5 in rebounding margin. This system has a 50-20 (71%) record in favor of the under. |
|||||||
| 03-20-14 | Washington Wizards v. Portland Trail Blazers OVER 206.5 | 103-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Annihilator on Wizards/Blazers OVER -
The total for this contest has been set far too low for a game involving two explosive offenses and two teams that do not play a lot of defense. Over their last five games the Blazers have surrendered an average of 108.6 points per game. On the offensive end of the court Portland is averaging 106.4 points per game during that stretch. With Portland playing soft defense lately the Wizards are in a great spot to put a big number up on the scoreboard. Washington averages over 100 points per game on the road, and they have done so against opponents with a defensive scoring average that is far less than the 103.2 points per game Portland has surrendered this season. The Wizards defense could also be in for a long night. Washington has surrendered 100.4 points per game this season against opponents with a scoring average of 100.3 points per game. Tonight they are up against a Blazers team averaging 108 points per game at home. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the over. You should play the over when any team (Portland) went over the total by 18 or more points in their previous game and they are facing an opponent that went over the total by 24 points or more in their previous game. Portland went over the total by 29 points in their last outing against Milwaukee, while Washington went over by 27 points in their last outing against Sacramento. This system is 383-260 (60%) in favor of the over. |
|||||||
| 03-16-14 | Houston Rockets v. Miami Heat UNDER 209 | 104-113 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Annihilator on Rockets/Heat UNDER
The total for this game is set far too high. This game is being played at Miami, so I like the Heat to control the pace of this game. Miami's defense has surrendered just 98.8 points per game at home this season while their opponents have an offensive scoring average over 100 points per game. Both of these teams are struggling on the offensive end of the court over their last five games, at least when compared to their season averages. Houston has scored 103.2 points per game over their last five games which is three points per game below their overall scoring average. They should struggle to match that number today against an underrated defense like Miami's. The Heat are also having trouble scoring points, averaging just 95.2 points per game over their last five games. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play the under. You should take the under when the total is 200 to 209.5 points and one team (Houston) is off an upset loss as a road favorite, and they have a winning record on the season and are facing another team with a winning record. This matchup has a 104-61 (63%) record in favor of the under. |
|||||||
| 03-10-14 | Toronto Raptors v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 196 | 97-101 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Dominator on Raptors/Nets UNDER
With the playoffs drawing near I expect two of the best teams in the Atlantic Division to play to their strengths. Both of these teams are soft on offensive production, but both have played some outstanding defense this year. The total on this game is far too high for a matchup that should prove to be a defensive battle. The Raptors come into this game holding opponents to a mere 96.5 points per game on the road. They have put up that stellar number against teams with a much more potent offense than what the Nets bring to this game. Toronto's opponents have a scoring average over 100 points per game, but Brooklyn is averaging just 97.4 points per game this season. It is a similar story for Brooklyn. The Nets have held opponents averaging 100.1 points per game to just 97.2 points when playing at home. They will host a Raptors team averaging 98.6 points per game on the road this season. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the under. You should play the under when the total is 190 to 199.5 points and one of the teams (Brooklyn) is off a home win by 10 points or more, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off an upset win as a road underdog. In this situation the under has a 142-91 (61%) record. |
|||||||
| 03-09-14 | Miami Heat v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 188 | 88-95 | Win | 100 | 4 h 39 m | Show | |
|
4* Total Annihilator of the Week on Heat/Bulls UNDER
This matchup features two very talented defenses. The Heat have held opponents to 98.5 points per game on the road this season. Those opponents have a scoring average of 100 points per game so they should easily improve on that number against this Bulls team that is averaging only 93 points per game. Chicago has arguably the best defense in the league. They have held opponents to 89.6 points per game when playing at home. Over their last five games they have surrendered just 91.2 points per game. The Bulls have put these numbers up against teams with an offensive scoring average of 100.2 points per game which is a comparable number to Miami's offensive scoring average this season. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on the under. You should take the under when the road team has a +3 to +7 point scoring differential and is coming off a game allowing 110 points or more, and they are facing an average team that has a +/- 3 point scoring differential and the total has been set between 180 to 189.5 points. This system has an impressive 24-4 (86%) record in favor of the under. |
|||||||
| 03-07-14 | Indiana Pacers v. Houston Rockets UNDER 202 | 86-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
|
4* Total Annihilator on Pacers/Rockets UNDER
The Indiana Pacers are a very good team defensively. They are trying to secure the top overall seed in the East, and following a two game losing streak I expect the Pacers to come out with a strong defensive performance tonight against the Rockets. Indiana has held opponents to a mere 91.6 points per game this season. Houston is a much better team defensively than it gets credit for. The Rockets opponents have an offensive scoring average of 101.2 points per game, yet Houston has surrendered just 99 points per game when playing at home. They will catch a break tonight against a Pacers team that averages a mere 97.4 points per game on the road. It is also worth nothing that over their last five games the Pacers scoring average has dipped down to 96 points per game. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on the under. You should take the under in a matchup that features an average three point shooting team making 33 to 36.5 percent of their attempts like the Rockets, against an average three point shooting defense allowing the same percentage like Indiana, in a game involving two teams that are +3 to +5.5 in rebounding margin per game after 42 or more games. This system has a record of 100-57 (64%) in favor of the under. |
|||||||
| 03-07-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Dallas Mavericks OVER 217 | 98-103 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Dominator on Blazers/Mavericks OVER
Both of these teams are soft defensively. The Trailblazers are coming into this matchup allowing 105.3 points per game when playing on the road. They are scoring 108 points per game in road games so there is very little doubt about Portland making a big contribution towards the over. In fact, the over has an 18-11 record when Portland is on the road this season. The Mavericks should also do their part towards sending this game over the total. The team averages 106.9 points per game at home, but against a soft defense like Portland's they should be able to exceed that number. Defensively the Mavericks are giving up 102.6 points per game, but that number will probably be a lot higher tonight against Portland's outstanding offense. The Mavericks have also surrendered 104.8 points per game over their last five games. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on the over. You should take the over when the total is 200 points or more and the road team is coming off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off a road game where both teams scored 100 points or more. This system has a 44-14 (76%) record in favor of the over. |
|||||||
| 03-05-14 | Chicago Bulls v. Detroit Pistons UNDER 192 | 105-94 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Dominator on Bulls/Pistons UNDER
This total is far too high considering the way these teams match up tonight. Detroit may not be known for playing great defense, but they have performed well defensively when facing a division opponent. The Pistons are surrendering a mere 94.4 points per game against the division, and the under looks really attractive when you consider their offensive production also takes a hit down to 98.4 points scored in those games. Chicago is holding division opponents to 86.5 points per game. The Bulls have one of the best defenses in the league, and I think they should easily keep the Pistons in check tonight. On the offensive end of the court the Bulls are nothing to be worried about. When playing on the road this season Chicago is averaging a mere 91.7 points per game, and against division opponents they are averaging just 90.6 points per game. You should play the under when one of the teams has beaten the spread by 36 or more points in their last five games (Chicago), and they have won 51 to 60 percent of their games on the season and are facing a team with a losing record. This system is 55-37 (60%) in favor of the under for the last five seasons. |
|||||||
| 03-04-14 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Los Angeles Lakers OVER 210.5 | 132-125 | Win | 100 | 22 h 15 m | Show | |
|
4* Western Conference Total of the Week on Lakers/Pelicans OVER
The New Orleans Pelicans are coming into this matchup with some serious issues on the defensive end of the court. Over their last five games the Pelicans have surrendered an average of 109.8 points per game. On the offensive end of the court the Pelicans should be fine tonight since they face a Lakers team that is allowing 109.6 points per game over their last five games. With both defenses surrendering a combined average of 219.4 points per game over their last five games I think we are getting a lot of value on the over tonight. The Pelicans offense should get the boost they need facing a struggling defense like the Lakers, and the Lakers should have no problem continuing to put up big offensive numbers since they are already averaging 106 points per game over their last five games. It is also worth noting that the Lakers have gone over the total in six of their last seven games. The over has a 39-19 record over the last two seasons when the Pelicans are facing a team with a losing record. When their opponent is being outscored by three or more points per game the over is 11-3 in Pelican's games this season. The over is also 13-5 in Lakers games against poor pressure defenses that are forcing less than 14 turnovers per game. Both teams are playing extremely soft defense right now, and they have gone over the total in four of the last five head-to-head meetings. |
|||||||
| 02-28-14 | Utah Jazz v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 192.5 | 79-99 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show | |
|
3* Total No Brainer on Jazz/Cavaliers UNDER
This total is set quite a bit higher than it should be considering how poorly these teams have looked on the offensive end of the court this season. The Jazz come into this matchup averaging just 92.3 points per game on the road. That has come against opponents allowing an average of over 100 points per game. Cleveland is an above average team in comparison, allowing just 98.2 points per game at home this season. The Cavaliers have also had a lot of problems getting points on the board. They are averaging 96.9 points per game this season. The Jazz are definitely a soft team defensively, but I think they should be able to slow the Cavaliers down in this matchup. Utah's opponents have an offensive scoring average of 101.7 points per game, and with Cleveland averaging almost five points per game below that number the under shows a lot of value. This game fits into a very profitable system to play the under. You should take the under when one of the teams (Utah) is coming off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off a road win by 10 points or more. The Jazz picked up a 23 point win at home over Phoenix in their last outing, while the Cavaliers picked up a 10 point road win over Oklahoma City. In this situation the under has a 98-52 (65%) record. |
|||||||
| 02-27-14 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 197.5 | 96-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Annihilator on Bucks/Pacers UNDER
The Pacers defense has been ridiculously good against division opponents this season. They are surrendering a mere 87.4 points per game in those games. When playing at home Indiana has allowed an average of just 86.3 points per game. Now the Pacers have the luxury of facing a Milwaukee team that only averages 93.3 points per game, which makes the under an easy call in this matchup. Milwaukee may not have a great record, but they are not a bad team defensively. Against division opponents the Bucks have allowed 99.1 points per game, and simply matching that average makes the under a very attractive play. The under is 22-9 when Milwaukee is a road underdog of 12.5 points or more. I expect to see the Pacers take a big early lead and have a lot of clock killing possessions late in this game that ensure we stay under the total. This matchup fits into a system that identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have set the total too high because of recent performances rather than how these teams actually match up. You should play the under when the total is 190 to 199.5 points after one of the teams scored 110 points or more in two straight games (Indiana), and they are playing against an opponent that scored 60 points or more in the first half of their last game. This system has a 24-5 (83%) record in favor of the under. |
|||||||
| 02-21-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Phoenix Suns OVER 208.5 | 85-106 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
|
4* Total Annihilator on Spurs/Suns OVER
There has been no shortage of scoring from both of these teams coming out of the All-Star break. Over their last five games the Spurs have averaged 106.4 points per game. They put up 113 points against the Clippers in their first game following the break, then scored 111 points on Portland in the second half of a back-to-back. The defense has not been great either, allowing 102.6 points per game over their last five. For the Suns it has been business as usual on offense. They average 107.6 points per game at home this season, and are scoring 107.8 points per game over their last five. The value on the over from Phoenix' side of things comes from the fact that the defense that has allowed 101.8 points per game overall this season is giving up an astonishing 107 points per game over their last five games. Now they will be tasked with facing a great offensive team like the Spurs, which should lead to a lot of points being scored tonight. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play the over. You should take the over when one of the teams (San Antonio) is coming off a win by six points or less, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off two straight wins by six points or less. The Spurs squeaked by Portland in their last outing, and the Suns picked up wins over Denver and Boston by five and six points, respectively. This system is 130-73 (64%) in favor of the over. |
|||||||
| 02-19-14 | Orlando Magic v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 196 | Top | 93-101 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 15 m | Show |
|
5* Total No Brainer on Magic/Cavaliers OVER
This matchup features two very poor defensive teams, and two offenses that have the ability to catch fire. The value in this matchup is clearly going to be on the over. Orlando is surrendering 102.3 points per game on the road this season. The Cavaliers have allowed an average of 102 points per game overall. Neither of these teams has done a lot of scoring this year, and I think that is the biggest reason for such a low total. That will change tonight since the competition is soft both ways. For a tired team the first thing to go is usually the defense. The Cavaliers are playing in the second half of a back-to-back situation. I expect their defense to be even worse than normal for this game. Orlando is also playing in a back-to-back after losing on the road against Milwaukee last night in a game they surrendered 104 points. The Cavaliers have a history of going over the total against Southeast division teams. The over has a 5-1 record in their last six games against that division, and it is 11-3 in Cleveland's last 14 games against a team with a losing record. For Orlando, the over is 43-26 the last three seasons when they are revenging a road loss to their opponent. With two soft defenses playing in a tough back-to-back situation, I expect to see a lot of points going on the board tonight. |
|||||||
| 02-13-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 183 | 76-92 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Annihilator on Nets/Bulls UNDER
I like this matchup to easily stay under the posted total. Both of these teams have been solid on defense this season. The Bulls have surrendered a mere 90.7 points per game, while the Nets have held opponents below their scoring averages at 99.7 points per game. I don't expect Brooklyn to have any problem improving on that number tonight since they are up against a Chicago team that only averages 92.3 points per game. This is the last game before the All-Star break, and both of these teams need a win. I think they will step up their defensive efforts today and that will keep this game under the total. Brooklyn has been playing great defense recently, allowing 94.4 points per game over their last five games. Just like Chicago, the Nets are not a high scoring team. They are averaging 96.3 points per game on the road this year, and they will struggle to match that number tonight since Chicago will be one of the best defensive teams they have seen. The under is 23-8 when Chicago is playing against a team with a losing record this season. The under is also 12-2 when the Bulls are playing at home and the total has been set between 180-189.5 points. In their last seven games against Atlantic division teams the under has a 7-0 record for Chicago. With Both teams struggling to score points this season, and both teams playing great defense right now the under is an easy call in this matchup. |
|||||||
| 02-11-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. Charlotte Bobcats UNDER 197.5 | 89-114 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Dominator on Mavericks/Bobcats UNDER
This total is simply too high, which makes the under a strong value play. The Bobcats may not have a great record, but that has not been because of a lack of defensive talent. They are playing at home, and should easily control the pace of this game. Charlotte has held opponents to 94.6 points per game at home this season, while scoring a mere 92.8 points in those games. Dallas has been a soft team defensively at times, but that does not hurt us in this matchup tonight. The Bobcats opponents have a defensive scoring average over 100 points per game this year, yet they are still averaging well under 95 points per game. Also, the Mavericks have been playing a lot better defensively in recent weeks. Over their past five games Dallas has held its opponents to 95.6 points per game. This matchup fits into a very profitable indicating this should be a low scoring game. You should play the under when one team (Dallas) has beaten the spread by 36 points or more in their last five games, and they have won 51 to 60 percent of their games on the season and are playing against a team with a losing record. Over the last five seasons the under is 54-34 (61%) in this situation. |
|||||||
| 02-07-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 196 | 113-118 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
|
4* Total Dominator on Blazers/Pacers UNDER
The total on this game is set way too high. The Indiana Pacers have one of the best home court advantages in the NBA, and I think that will allow them to control the pace of this game. The Pacers defense has been unbelievably hard to score on this year, and they are surrendering a mere 84.8 points per game when playing at home. On the offensive end of the court the Pacers are not a high scoring team. They haven't needed to average triple digits to win games, which is a big reason the under is 17-8 when playing in Indianapolis. Portland has really been struggling recently. Over the Trailblazers' last five games they have averaged a mere 91.8 points per game. They have also gone under the total in seven of their last eight games. The normally soft Portland defense has stepped up during that five game stretch. They are holding opponents to 98.8 points per game which is five points under their defensive scoring average on the season. With the offense struggling, and the defense playing so well, the under becomes a very strong value play. This matchup fits into a system indicating this should be a low scoring game. You should play the under when the total is between 190 to 199.5 points and the road team is well rested playing four or less games in the last 10 games and they have won 60 to 75 percent of their games on the season, when they are playing against a team with a winning record. The under is 147-85 (63%) in this situation. |
|||||||
| 02-06-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 193 | 89-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Dominator on Spurs/Nets UNDER
This game should play out to be a defensive battle. A big reason for the Nets success in the New Year has been outstanding defensive play. They suffered a three game stretch of poor defense a week ago, but I like the Nets to get back to playing solid defense in this matchup with the Spurs. San Antonio will be without Duncan and Parker tonight, and that will take a big hit out of the Spurs offensive production. On the defensive end of the court San Antonio will be fine. They have played without there stars before and still manage to put up solid defensive numbers. San Antonio is holding opponents to a mere 96.3 points per game on the road this season, and that has come against much better scoring teams than the Nets. Brooklyn averages 97.5 points per game overall, and I think they will struggle to match that number in this game. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the under. You should play the under when one of the teams (San Antonio) is coming off two or more consecutive overs, and their opponent (Brooklyn) is coming off three or more consecutive overs. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have a history of setting the total to high, and the under has delivered a 216-144 (60%) record over the last five seasons. |
|||||||
| 02-05-14 | Toronto Raptors v. Sacramento Kings UNDER 200.5 | 101-109 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 11 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Annihilator on Kings/Raptors UNDER
This is a lot of points for two teams that have been trending towards the under recently. The Raptors have gone under the total in three of their last four games, while the Kings have gone under in four consecutive games. Both teams are playing great defense right now, and nothing in this matchup indicates that will be changing today. Over their last five games the Raptors have held opponents to 92.2 points per game. They have been a solid defensive team all season allowing an average of just 95.2 points per game on the road. The Kings may have a decent scoring average at home, but that has come against opponents who are surrendering over 100 points per game on the season. On the defensive end of the court Sacramento has allowed just 95.4 points per game over its last five games. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on the under. When the total is between 200 to 209.5 points in a non-conference matchup and one of the teams (Sacramento) went under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game the under has a 54-25 (68%) record over the last five seasons. I expect this matchup to be a defensive battle, and it should stay comfortably under the posted total. |
|||||||
| 02-03-14 | Chicago Bulls v. Sacramento Kings UNDER 191.5 | 70-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Dominator on Bulls/Kings UNDER
This matchup sets up perfectly for a play on the under. The Kings are coming into this game having given up 106.4 points per game over their last five games. Sacramento has been struggling defensively, and that has forced the oddsmakers to set this total higher than it should be. The Kings are facing a horrible Bulls offense, and I just don't see their defensive woes continuing in this matchup with Chicago. The Bulls may not be a great team on offense, but they have one of the league's best defenses. Chicago has surrendered 92.7 points per game this season. Their defensive scoring average is a full eight points below the average opponent Sacramento has faced this season. The Kings offense has been putting up below average numbers since losing DeMarcus Cousins to an ankle injury, and with his status doubtful today I expect them to continue struggling on offense. The Bulls have gone under the total in five of their last six games while the Kings have stayed under the total in three consecutive games. There are too many variables indicating this will be a low scoring game. Both teams are coming into this matchup with a day of rest, Chicago is playing great defense, the Kings are struggling to score without Cousins and the list goes on and on. Take the under because this one will be low scoring. |
|||||||
| 02-03-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. New Orleans Pelicans UNDER 194 | 102-95 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
|
4* Western Conference Total of the Week on Spurs/Pelicans UNDER
This matchup should play out to be a defensive battle. The Spurs defense has been solid on the road, holding opponents to a mere 95.3 points per game. They are not a team that has been putting up big offensive numbers recently either. San Antonio is averaging just 95.4 points per game over their last five games. The Pelicans come into this matchup with a very underrated defense. They have held opponents to 98.7 points per game when playing on the road, but over their last five games they have surrendered just 89.8 points per game. Just like the Spurs, New Orleans has been in a bit of a scoring slump. They have scored an average of 93.6 points over their last five games. This matchup fits into a very profitable system indicating this game will stay below the total. You should play the under in a game involving two good three point shooting teams that make 36.5 percent or more of their attempts, in a matchup involving two average rebounding teams that have a +3 to -3 rebounding margin on the season. This system is 270-178 (60%) to the under throughout the last five seasons. The system points out the fact that the oddsmakers tend to set the total far too high for games with good three-point shooting teams, not taking into account how well the teams have played defensively. |
|||||||
| 02-03-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Washington Wizards OVER 205.5 | Top | 90-100 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
|
5* NBA Total of the Week on Blazers/Wizards OVER
The Portland Trailblazers are one of the highest scoring teams in the league this season. They are averaging 108.3 points per game overall, and when playing on the road that number increases to 108.7 points per game. They are also a very soft defensive team that has allowed 105.1 points per game on the road. Their high scoring and poor defensive play are a big reason the over is such an easy call in this matchup with the Wizards. Washington comes into this matchup averaging just over 100 points per game at home. I think they have a lot of potential to exceed there scoring average since they will be facing a soft defense in this game. Portland is allowing 103.4 points per game overall against opponents whose scoring average is 100.8 points per game. When the Trailblazers are playing on the road that number gets even worse. The over is 20-6 in Portland's road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots per game over the last 2 seasons. The over is also 13-3 in Washington's home games against good teams that are outscoring opponents by three or more points per game. These two angles combined for a 33-9 (79%) record in favor of the over. |
|||||||
| 01-26-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Boston Celtics UNDER 192 | 85-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
|
4* Total Dominator on Nets/Celtics UNDER
The total in this game seems to be quite a bit higher than it should be. Boston is playing some solid defense right now surrendering just 87.8 points per game against division opponents. The Celtics offense has been horrible this year, so I think the Nets are poised for a strong defensive performance too. Boston averages 95.1 points per game and should struggle against this Brooklyn team that has held opponents to 96.4 points per game over its last five games. That five game stretch has come against opponents with a lot more scoring potential than the Celtics bring to this matchup. The under is 14-4 in Boston's last 18 home games when coming off a matchup with a non-conference opponent. The under is also 12-4 when Boston has been an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Brooklyn is well rested right now, playing just their second game in five days. The under is 26-14 in the Nets last 40 games when playing in a 2-in-5 situation over the last two seasons. There is a very profitable system backing the under in this matchup. You should play the under when the total is between 190 to 199.5 points and the road team is well rested playing their second game in five days, and they have won 40 to 49 percent of their games on the season. This system is 48-21 (70%) to the under for the last five seasons. With both teams playing solid defense recently I expect this to be a very low scoring game. |
|||||||
| 01-25-14 | Houston Rockets v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 194.5 | 81-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Annihilator on Rockets/Grizzlies UNDER
With the Grizzlies playing at home I think they will control the pace of this game. That puts a lot of value on the under since they are surrendering just 96.3 points per game this season. The under is 22-8 in Memphis games after a matchup where both teams scored 90 points or less. This is the second leg of a home-and-home series between these teams. In the first game these teams combined for a score of 175 points, and there is no reason to expect an outcome much different than that in this matchup. Memphis has gone under the total in five consecutive games, and the Rockets have gone under the total in five of their last seven games. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the under. You should play the under when a team, like Memphis, is facing a division opponent and they are coming off a road win over a division rival. This system has gone under the total at a rate of 69-36 (66%) over the last five seasons. |
|||||||
| 01-24-14 | Washington Wizards v. Phoenix Suns OVER 207 | Top | 101-95 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
|
5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Wizards/Suns OVER 207
This total is set far too low given how well these teams have been playing on offense recently. Over their last five games the Wizards are averaging 105.2 points per game. The Suns have also been on a scoring binge averaging 113 points per game over their last five games. These teams have an 11-3 record in favor of the over in their last 14 games combined. Both offenses are playing great right now, but both of these defenses have been horrible. Washington has surrendered 101.2 points per game over their last five games, and I think that number will only get worse against a high scoring team like the Suns. Phoenix has had a notoriously bad defense all season, but somehow they have managed to play worse than average recently allowing 105 points per game over their last five games. The over is 13-2 in the Suns last 15 home games against opponents who attempt 18 or more three point shots per game. The over is also 13-5 when the Suns are playing against a team with a losing record this season. You should play the over when the total is 200 points or more and the road team is coming off a loss by three points or less and their opponent has scored 100 points or more in four straight games. The over has a 54-23 (70%) record in this situation. |
|||||||
| 01-17-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. Phoenix Suns OVER 210 | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
|
4* Total Annihilator on Mavericks/Suns OVER
I think the total for this game is set much lower than it should be. Dallas is coming into this matchup averaging 108.2 points per game over their last five games. They are not a team that takes a big hit in offensive production when playing on the road, and I like their chances to continue their scoring binge against this soft Phoenix defense. The Suns are surrendering 105.8 points per game over their last five games, and there scoring defense at home has actually been worse than when the Suns are playing on the road. The Suns should also score at-will in this game. Dallas may be on a tear on the offensive end of the court, but there defense has been non-existent recently. The Mavericks have surrendered 105.2 points per game over their last five games. The Suns are a very good scoring team at home, averaging 108.1 points per game when playing in Phoenix. These teams met last month and the total was set at 208 points. They combined for a total of 231 points in that game, yet the total set by the oddsmakers has barely increased. I think that represents strong value on the over tonight. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on the over. You should take the over when the total is over 200 points, and the teams went over the total by more than 18 points in their last meeting, and one of the teams (Dallas) went over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game. This system has a 159-94 (63%) record in favor of the over. |
|||||||
| 01-12-14 | Atlanta Hawks v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 193 | 101-108 | Loss | -107 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Annihilator on Hawks/Grizzlies UNDER
The total on this game is set far too high considering how these teams have been playing recently. In their last five games the Atlanta Hawks have averaged a mere 90 points per game. They have played well defensively during that stretch holding opponents to just 90 points per game. They are up against a Grizzlies team that is not known for putting up big numbers on the scoreboard. Memphis averages 96.2 points per game, and I expect the Grizzlies to struggle to match that number in this matchup since the Hawks are playing so well defensively right now. The under is a perfect 8-0 in the Grizzlies last eight home games against Southeast division opponents. It is also 29-15 when Memphis is coming off a win by six points or less. The Grizzlies squeaked by Phoenix in their last game winning by just five points. They uncharacteristically gave up 99 points, and I expect to see a much stronger defensive performance in this matchup, especially since Memphis is playing with a day of rest. The Grizzlies opponents have averaged over 101 points per game on the season, and they have held those opponents to just 97.5 points per game on the year. They are poised to improve on that number in this game since the Hawks are having so many problems scoring points right now. This matchup fits into a system to play on the under when the total is set between 190 and 199.5 points, and one of the teams (Atlanta) is coming off a game allowing 80 points or less when they are facing an opponent that has scored 100 points or more over in four or more consecutive games. This system is 46-17 (73%) in favor of the under. The fact that Memphis has been scoring so many points has created a lot of value on the under in this matchup. |
|||||||
| 01-10-14 | Orlando Magic v. Sacramento Kings OVER 205 | 83-103 | Loss | -107 | 24 h 55 m | Show | |
|
4* Total Dominator on Magic/Kings OVER
There should be no shortage of scoring between the Magic and Kings tonight. Orlando has been horrible defensively when playing on the road, allowing an average of 102.1 points. Meanwhile, the Kings have scored an average of 101.4 points when playing at home. The Kings are also a soft team defensively which only adds value to the over. Sacramento has surrendered an average of 105 points per game overall this season. Over their last five games Sacramento has averaged 108.8 points. There defense has been horrible in those games, allowing an average of 112.6 points per game. The Magic have not been scoring a lot of points recently, and I think that has forced the oddsmakers to set this total much lower than it should be. Even a team like Orlando should score a lot of points against Sacramento's non-existent defense. The Kings have gone over the total in nine of their last 10, and the oddsmakers have still not set the bar high enough in this matchup. The over is 12-4 in Sacramento's games against teams who are called for 21 or less fouls, and 24-13 against poor pressure defense teams that are forcing 14 or less turnovers per game. The over is also 5-1 in Orlando's last six games against a team with a losing record and 5-1 in their last six head-to-head meetings between these teams. |
|||||||
| 01-07-14 | Washington Wizards v. Charlotte Bobcats UNDER 190.5 | 97-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Dominator on Wizards/Bobcats UNDER
The way Washington and Charlotte matchup puts a lot of value on the under. Washington is not a high scoring team, averaging just 98.3 points per game against opposing defenses that have allowed an average over 100 points per game on the year. The Bobcats are also a low scoring team averaging just 91.7 points per game at home this season. The under is 32-18 in Washington's last 50 games when playing against a team with a losing record. Defensively the Wizards have been decent this year. They should have no problem keeping a bad team like the Bobcats from putting up any big offensive numbers. It is the same story for Charlotte's defense. The Bobcats have held opponents to a mere 93.8 points per game at home, and they should make easy work of the Wizards tonight. The under is 32-19 over the last two seasons when the Wizards are playing as a road underdog. It is also 25-14 when Washington is coming off a game against a non-conference opponent. The under is 8-1 in Charlotte's last nine games as a home favorite this season, and 13-4 in all their home games on the year. Neither of these teams scores a lot of points, and both are better defensively than they are getting credit for, and that makes the under the play in this game. |
|||||||
| 01-06-14 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 218 | 126-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Annihilator on Wolves/Sixers OVER
These two teams should have no problem scoring enough points to send this game over the total. Minnesota comes into this matchup averaging 106.8 points per game. They have the luxury of facing a Philadelphia defense that is allowing 110.8 points per game at home this season. It is a similar story for the 76ers. They are averaging 104 points per game at home, but will be up against a Timberwolves defense that is allowing 103.9 points per game. For the most part, the oddsmakers have been unable to set the bar high enough on the total for these teams. Minnesota has gone over in six of their last eight games, while Philadelphia has gone over the total in seven of their last 10 games. If not for going under in three of their last four I suspect this total would be set even higher. I don't think the 76ers recent trend is an indication of anything. They played six consecutive road games, but in this matchup they are at home and playing with a day of rest. The over is 14-6 when Philadelphia is playing against a team with a losing record this season. It is also 15-4 in home games when playing a team making 76 percent or more of their free throw attempts. This matchup also fits into a very profitable system for a play on the over. You should play the over when a team, like Minnesota, is off a home loss against a division rival, and playing against an opponent coming off a road win by three points or less. This system has a 79-42 record in favor of the over. |
|||||||
| 01-05-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Washington Wizards OVER 203 | 112-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Dominator on Wizards/Warriors OVER
Golden State is one of the hottest teams in the league right now, and a big reason for their success has been their unstoppable offensive play. In their last five games the Warriors are averaging 108.2 points per game. It has taken a big offensive number to win games since defensively Golden State leaves something to be desired. The Warriors have allowed an average of 100 points per game on the road this season. The Washington Wizards have been a great team to follow with an over play. They have exceeded the oddsmaker |
|||||||
| 01-02-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Miami Heat OVER 203.5 | 123-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
|
4* Total No Brainer on Warriors/Heat OVER
Golden State is one of the hottest teams in the NBA right now, and a big reason for their recent success has come from an offense that is scoring a lot of points. Golden State comes into this matchup averaging 102.2 points per game over their last five games. Three of those five games have been played on the road, so there is no reason to expect the offense to cool down in this matchup with Miami. The Heat are one of the best teams in the league, and I don't think they will have any problems keeping pace with Golden State in this game. Miami averages 108.1 points per game at home, and they are allowing an average of 99.7 defensively. The oddsmakers have continuously set the total too low in Miami's home games, and that as resulted in an 11-5 record for the over. This matchup fits into a system to play the over when one of the teams, in this case Miami, is coming off a road no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, and they are a well rested team playing only their second game in five days. This system is 25-5 to the over for the last five seasons. The over is also 4-1 in Golden State's last five games against Eastern Conference opponents, and 7-2 in Miami's last nine games overall. |
|||||||
| 01-01-14 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Minnesota Timberwolves OVER 213 | 112-124 | Win | 100 | 19 h 39 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Annihilator on Wolves/Pelicans OVER
This total seems a bit low considering the complete lack of defense these teams have shown this season, as well as their outstanding scoring potential. New Orleans comes into this game averaging 103 points per game, and I expect them to score at-will against a Minnesota defense that has surrendered 102.2 points per game this season. It should be an easy night to make baskets for the Wolves too. They are averaging 107.4 points per game at home this season, and face a New Orleans defense that has allowed 106.5 points per game on the road. Minnesota is one game below .500 this season, and that bodes well for the over in this game. New Orleans is 11-0 to the over when playing against a team with a losing record this season. They are also 22-7 to the over against teams shooting under 43 percent from the field with a defense that allows over 46 percent shooting from opponents. Minnesota may not shoot at a high percentage, but their up-tempo pace of play has certainly offset that fact. Not only do the Wolves average 107.4 points per game at home, but they are at 106.2 points per game overall this season. The Over is 10-4 in the Pelican |
|||||||
| 12-30-13 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Utah Jazz UNDER 188.5 | 80-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
|
4* Total Dominator on Bobcats/Jazz UNDER
The total on this game has been set far too high considering how poorly both of these teams are offensively this season. The Bobcats come into this game averaging just 92.9 points per game. They are shooting a mere 42.2 percent from the field, and 32 percent on three point attempts. They have been saved be decent defensive play, allowing 94.2 points per game, and they should easily improve on that number against this Jazz team that averages just 93 points per game on offense. Utah may not have the same strong defensive numbers that the Bobcats do, but these teams met just over a week ago and the Jazz held Charlotte to a mere 85 points. The total in that game was very similar, set at 189 points yet the combined score for these teams was just 173 points. I don't think a change in venue is enough to expect an extra 16 points scoring from these teams. The under is 4-0 in Charlotte's last four games against a Western Conference opponent, and it is 7-1 in their last eight games against a team winning 40 percent of their games or less. The under is 10-4 in the Bobcats last 14 games played on a single day of rest. The Jazz are also trending towards the under with a 12-4 record following an ATS win, and a 5-2 record in their last seven games against Southeast division teams. |
|||||||
| 12-25-13 | Chicago Bulls v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 187.5 | 95-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Dominator on Bulls/Nets UNDER
What was projected to be a Christmas Day shootout between two of the top teams in the league has quickly become a game between two of the worst teams in basketball. The Nets and Bulls are bad, and bad teams don't typically score a lot of points. Chicago comes into this game averaging just 90.9 points per game on the road. The Bulls have a solid defense, but they are not winning games because of a major lack of scoring. They have held opponents to just 93.3 points per game, and that has come against a schedule that features teams with a combined average of 99 points per game scored. They catch a small break in this matchup against Brooklyn since the Nets are averaging a slightly lower 97.6 points per game. Brooklyn has been soft defensively, but they are no worse than any other team Chicago has faced. The Bulls opponents are giving up 99.6 points per game and even a soft schedule like that has not helped Chicago score points. I think that creates significant value on the under in this game. The Nets won't be able to score on the Bulls defense, and Chicago can't score against anyone. The under is 12-2 when Chicago is playing against a team with a losing record this season, and it is 14-3 in Bull's games when the total is set between 180 to 189.5 points. This matchup fits into two very profitable systems to make a play on the under. First, you should play the under when any team has lost four of their last six games, in a matchup involving two bad teams that are winning 25 to 40 percent of their games on the season. This system is 189-128 in favor of the under for the last five seasons. The second system is to play the under after one of the teams (Brooklyn) has failed to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games, also in a matchup involving two bad teams. This system is 48-23 to the under for the last five seasons. |
|||||||
| 12-23-13 | Atlanta Hawks v. Miami Heat UNDER 207.5 | 119-121 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Dominator on Hawks/Heat UNDER
I don't expect defense to be an issue for either team in this game since they are both coming in well rested. Atlanta has been known to be a little soft defensively, but they are coming off a performance in which they held Utah to just 85 points, and two days to prepare should help the Hawks slow down Miami's offensive attack. The Heat are also coming into this game with two days rest, so I expect their already stingy defense to have another strong performance. Both of these teams are below their overall scoring average when playing against division opponents. There is a lot of value on the under with when you have two well rested teams from the same division facing off. The under is 24-11 in Miami's last 35 games against division opponents, and the under is 17-6 in Atlanta's last 23 games when playing a team that has won over 70 percent of their games on the season. When two teams have been trending towards the over the oddsmakers have a tendency to set totals much higher than they should. This matchup fits into a system to play the under when one team is coming off three or more consecutive overs, and their opponent is coming off four or more consecutive overs. The Hawks are coming off five straight overs, and its been four straight for the Heat. This system has a 59-24 (71%) record in favor of the under for the last five seasons. |
|||||||
| 12-23-13 | New York Knicks v. Orlando Magic UNDER 192 | 103-98 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 52 m | Show | |
|
4* Total Annihilator on Knicks/Magic UNDER
There is a lot of value on the under in this matchup between the Knicks and Magic. These are two very bad teams, and I don't see a scenario where either team is able to do enough scoring to sent this game over the total. The Knicks have been horrible on the road averaging just 93.2 points per game. They under is 4-8 in New York's 12 road games this season. The Magic have also had problems scoring points, and I expect them to struggle against New York's underrated defense. New York has certainly been horrible this year, but defensively they have played extremely well. The Knicks have held opponents to just 94.1 points per game on the road this year. The Magic are scoring just 96.6 points per game this year, and they have put that number up against opponents who are surrendering a lot more points than New York at 99.6 points allowed per game. The under is 8-1 in New York's nine games as a road underdog this season, and they are 22-10 to the under when playing just their second game in the last five gays. The under is also 14-3 when Orlando is revenging a blowout loss of 20 points or more against their opponents. This matchup also fits into a system to play the under when one of the teams (Orlando) has lost four of their last six games, in a matchup involving two bad teams that have won 25 to 40 percent of their games on the season. This system is 189-127 to the under for the last five seasons. |
|||||||
| 12-21-13 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Milwaukee Bucks OVER 201.5 | 106-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
|
4* Total No Brainer on 76ers/Bucks OVER
This total is set far too low considering how easily both of these teams should score in this game. The 76ers have had no problem getting points on the board all season, averaging 102.3 points per game. They should continue to score at-will against a Bucks defense that has allowing over a point per game more than their opponents scoring average. Milwaukee has had trouble scoring this year, but that will change in this matchup. The 76ers have one of the worse defenses in the league, allowing an average of 112.4 points per game on the road this season. Philadelphia has allowed 120 points or more in each of their last three games, and they have gone over the total in four consecutive. This matchup fits a system to play the over when the total is 200 points or more, and one team (Milwaukee) has gone over the total by 18 points or more in their previous game, and their opponent went over the total by 24 points or more in their previous game. This system is 156-94 (62%) in favor of the over. With both defenses playing so poorly, it is safe to expect a shootout tonight. |
|||||||
| 12-20-13 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 210 | 91-104 | Win | 100 | 22 h 56 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Annihilator on Minnesota/LA Lakers UNDER
The total in this game is far too high given the way these teams matchup. The Lakers defense has played well at home when you consider the fact that their opponents are averaging over 101 points per game. The Timberwolves are not a strong shooting team averaging just 42.6 percent from the field. I don |
|||||||
| 12-20-13 | Utah Jazz v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 198.5 | 85-118 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
|
4* Total Dominator on Utah/Atlanta UNDER
The Jazz are playing some pretty solid defense recently, and they have gone under the total in three of their last four games. I don |
|||||||
| 12-18-13 | Chicago Bulls v. Houston Rockets UNDER 192 | 94-109 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
|
4* Total Annihilator on Bulls/Rockets UNDER
Both Houston and Chicago are coming off close losses, and I think they will show up with a defensive mentality in this game because of it. Chicago lost by a single point against Orlando, while Houston was crushed in their last game by Sacramento. The Rockets are coming off a three game road stretch, where they allowed an average of 109.7 points, and that has created a lot of value on the under in this game because their defense plays substantially better in home games. Houston is allowing 95.5 points per game at home this season, and they have the luxury of facing a Bulls team that averages just 90.2 points per game on the road. I don't expect the Rockets offense to have a big night against the stingy Bulls defense, and that puts even more value on the under. Chicago has held opponents to just 92.4 points per game this season. The under is 20-7 when Houston is playing six or less games in the last 14 days. It is also 35-18 when the Rockets are at home and coming off three straight games allowing 100 points or more. The Bulls are also trending towards the under. They have gone under the total in five of their last six games, and the under is 4-1 in Chicago's last five games when coming off an ATS loss. With both teams playing with at least a day of rest, this game should turn out to be a defensive battle. |
|||||||
| 12-18-13 | Utah Jazz v. Orlando Magic OVER 197 | 86-82 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Dominator on Jazz/Magic OVER
Both of these teams have played poorly on the defensive end of the court. The Jazz are allowing over 103 points per game on the road this year, and Orlando has allowed over 101 points per game overall. Their lack of defense puts a lot of value on the over. The over is 20-8 in Orlando's last 28 home games against non-conference opponents. In their first five games at Amway Center the Magic were allowing 89.6 points per game. They have since given up 107.3 points per per game in their last six games there. The Jazz are also trending heavily to the over after losing back-to-back games where they gave up 100 points to San Antonio and 117 points against Miami. Since both defenses have been playing so poorly I expect to see big offensive numbers from both of these teams. The over is 7-2 in Orlando's last nine games against Northwest division opponents. In the last seven head-to-head meetings between these teams the over has a 6-1 record. After failing to cover the spread in six of their last eight games, Utah has an 83-56 record towards the over, and given the way these teams matchup there is no reason to believe these trends won't continue. |
|||||||
| 12-16-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 203 | 92-115 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Annihilator on Spurs/Clippers UNDER
The Clippers are coming off seven consecutive road games, going under the total in five of those seven games. They held four of their seven opponents under 90 points during that stretch. That tells me these team is really clicking defensively since they have typically allowed over 100 points per game this season. The Spurs also have a solid defensive unit. They are allowing just 90.4 points per game on the road this season. The Spurs are 17-6 to the under when playing in road games where the total is 200 points or more over the last two seasons. They are also 12-3 to the under when facing a Pacific division opponents. This matchup fits into a a very profitable system to play on the under. You should play on the under when a team like San Antonio has gone over the total by 48 points ore more in their last seven games, and they are winning 75% of their games or more on the season, and are facing another team with a winning record. This system is 38-18 (68%) to the under over the last five seasons. |
|||||||
| 12-16-13 | Washington Wizards v. New York Knicks OVER 190.5 | 102-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Annihilator on Wizards/Knicks OVER
Getting points on the board should be an easy task to accomplish in this game since neither of these teams have played well defensively this season. Washington is allowing 99.6 points per game this year, while New York has given up 101.7 points per game when playing at home. Both of those numbers are significantly higher than their opponents scoring averages have been this season. This will be New York's fifth game in the last seven days, and their defense is already trending in the wrong direction as the wear and tear of this brutal stretch of schedule catches up with them. They gave up 106 points on Saturday to Atlanta. The Wizards are also playing through a touch stretch of schedule. This is their third game in the last four days, and they are coming off back-to-back performances allowing over 100 points per game. Washington is the kind of team that responds with a big offensive performance when coming off an embarrassing loss. The over is 19-7 in the Wizards last 26 games following a straight-up loss of more than 10 points. The over is also 15-7 in Washington's last 22 games against Eastern Conference opponents. The Knicks on the other hand have posted an 8-3 record to the over in their last 11 homes games. I expect this game to be an offensive shootout that should easily exceed the posted total. |
|||||||
| 12-13-13 | Sacramento Kings v. Phoenix Suns UNDER 209.5 | Top | 107-116 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
|
5* Pacific Division Total of the Month on Suns/Kings UNDER
The total on this game has been set far too high. The Kings only average 98.8 points per game, and they should struggle against a Suns defense that is playing with two days of rest. Sacramento is also playing with a day off, and with both teams being rested I think both defenses will play well tonight. Phoenix has allowed just 99.9 points per game this year. Nothing about this game indicates that either team is going to be able to exceed their scoring average, or end up allowing more than their defensive average for points against. The total on this game reflects a potential shootout, but the numbers say this game will be a defensive battle. The under is a perfect 9-0 when Sacramento is on the road and coming off a blowout loss by 20 points or more. It is also 15-5 when Phoenix is coming off an upset win as a road underdog. This matchup fits into a system to play the under when a team like Phoenix is facing a division opponent and they are coming off a road win against a division rival. This system is 66-30 to the under for the last five seasons. You should also play the under when the total is 200 points or more and there is a well rested team like Phoenix that is playing four or less games in the last 10 days, and have won between 51% to 60% of their games on the season. This system is 96-52 (65%) in favor of the under for the last five seasons. |
|||||||
| 12-09-13 | Golden State Warriors v. Charlotte Bobcats UNDER 194.5 | 111-115 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
|
4* Total Dominator on Warriors/Bobcats UNDER
Golden State is coming off a very strong defensive performance, holding the Memphis Grizzlies to just 82 points. The Warriors have struggled on the road this year with a 6-7 record, and a big reason for that is because of the offensive production hit they take when playing away from home. Against a team with a losing record like Charlotte you would think Golden State could score at-will, but the numbers indicate a different story. The Bobcats have held opponents to a mere 91.5 points per game. They have a very underrated defense. The Bobcats have not done a lot of scoring this year, which only adds value to the under. They are scoring just 89.6 points per game overall, and only get a small boost in production to 90.1 points per game when playing at home. Both of these teams have strong under records. The under is 9-4 in Golden State's 13 road games, and 14-5 overall for the Bobcats. This matchup fits into a system to play on the under when the total is between 190 to 199.5 points, and one of the teams is coming off a home win by 10 points or more and playing against an opponent off a road win by 10 points or more. This system has a 111-67 record towards the under. When playing with a day of rest the under is 14-5 in Golden State's last 19 games. |
|||||||
| 12-07-13 | Sacramento Kings v. Utah Jazz OVER 193 | Top | 112-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
|
5* Total No Brainer on Jazz/Kings OVER
The total for this game is set much lower than it should be. Neither of these teams has played well defensively this season, and they are both capable of putting up big numbers on the offensive end of the court. The Sacramento Kings are allowing 102.2 points per game on the road this season. The Jazz get a big boost in offensive production on their home court, and against a soft Kings defense I think they will more than account for their half of the points needed to send this game over the total. The Kings lack of success this year has not come from a lack of scoring. They are averaging 97.1 points per game, and they have a great opportunity to build on that number against a Jazz defense that is allowing 101.5 points per game. Utah's defense has been soft regardless of venue, so the fact that Sacramento is on the road should not slow them down in this matchup. This matchup fits into a system to play the over when the total is between 190 to 199.5 points, when a team like Utah has won less than 25% of their games, they are coming off a road loss against a division rival, and they are playing a team with a losing record. This system is 38-11 (78%) in favor of the over. Expect a shootout between two bad teams because neither have played well on the defensive end of the court. |
|||||||
| 12-07-13 | Brooklyn Nets v. Milwaukee Bucks OVER 189 | 90-82 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Dominator on Nets/Bucks OVER
With Milwaukee playing on back-to-back nights I expect their defense to be even worse than it normally is. They are facing a Brooklyn team playing with a much needed day of rest, so the Nets should be able to put a big number on the scoreboard. Milwaukee is allowing 99.9 points per game this season. The Nets should score a lot of points against Milwaukee, but they will definitely allow a lot of points too. Brooklyn is giving up over 103 points per game on the road this season. Seven of the Nets last eight games have had the total set higher than the line we are getting today, and I think that is an overly aggressive move by the oddsmakers which creates value on the over. The over is 11-1 in Brooklyn's last 12 games against a team winning less than 40% of their games. It is also 16-5-1 when when Nets are playing on one day of rest. The Bucks are also trending towards the over. They have gone over the total in five of their last seven games. |
|||||||
| 12-04-13 | Dallas Mavericks v. New Orleans Pelicans OVER 207 | Top | 100-97 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
|
5* Total Dominator on Mavericks/Pelicans OVER
The total on this game is much lower than it should be given the way these teams have been playing recently. In their last five games, the Pelicans are averaging 109.8 points per game. They should have no problem putting up another big number tonight against a Mavericks defense that is allowing 102.4 points per game on the road. The Mavericks should also score a lot of points in this game. New Orleans is allowing 101.9 points per game this season, and they have done so against opponents whose offensive average is just 97.7 points per game. The Dallas Mavericks come into this game scoring 103.7 points per game, and with the Pelican's complete lack of defense they have a very good chance to improve on that number today. This matchup fits into a system to play the over when a team like New Orleans is coming off two consecutive road wins by five points or less, and they are playing in the first half of the season. The over has a 40-11 (78%) record in the last 51 games fitting into this scenario. In the last nine head-to-head meetings between these teams being played in New Orleans the over has a 7-2 record. I expect tonight's matchup to be another offensive showcase sending this game over the total. |
|||||||
| 11-30-13 | Houston Rockets v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 205 | 112-106 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
|
4* Total Annihilator on Rocket/Spurs UNDER
The Spurs should be able to control the pace of this game on their home court, and that means these teams will not be getting into an offensive shootout. San Antonio has held opponents to 89.3 points per game at home this season. The Spurs are scoring 101.4 points per game at home, and I doubt they will exceed that number today against a very underrated Rockets defense. Houston may allow a lot of points per game, but that is because they also score a lot of points. Against the Spurs defense that scoring will be slowed down dramatically, and I think the talent of this defense will show in this game. The Rockets have actually held opponents to a lower shooting percentage from the field than the Spurs have this season. They are allowing those opponents to shoot 41.8% while San Antonio is allowing 42.6% from the field. The under is 14-4 in San Antonio's games against teams that are scoring 103 or more points per game. The under is also 17-6 in San Antonio's last 23 games against teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game. The Rockets are also trending towards the under. They have gone under the total in nine of their last 13 games following an ATS win, and are 29-14 to the under against a team with a winning record. |
|||||||
| 11-27-13 | Washington Wizards v. Milwaukee Bucks OVER 191 | 100-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Dominator on Wizards/Bucks OVER
It is a little surprising to see such a low total in this game given how poorly these defenses have played this season. The Wizards are allowing 102 points per game, while the Bucks are not far behind at 100.2 points allowed. Both teams are allowing opponents to shoot over 47 percent from the field. The Washington Wizards are averaging 100.3 points per game this year. They should have no problem exceeding that number against Milwaukee today. Washington has been on fire on three-point attempts, making 41.2 percent in the road this season. Milwaukee is also a team that shoots well on three-point attempts. They average 41 percent from beyond the arch in home games. I have these teams playing in a shootout, and I expect to see a lot of three-point shots falling. The over is 11-5 in Washington's last 16 games against Eastern Conference opponents. This matchup falls into a system to play the over when the total is between 190 to 199.5 points and one of the teams is off a road loss against a division opponent like Milwaukee, and they are a terrible team winning 25% of their games or less and facing another team with a losing record. This system is 37-11 (77%) in favor of the over. |
|||||||
| 11-20-13 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Golden State Warriors OVER 195.5 | 88-81 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Dominator on Grizzlies/Warriors OVER
The Grizzlies have looked soft on defense this season, and that could be big trouble tonight when they are on the road against Golden State. The Warriors are averaging 110.8 points per game at home this season. They are beating their opponents defensive average for points allowed by a double-digit margin. The Grizzlies have allowed 97.2 points per game this year. Memphis may not be playing great defense, but the offense is performing well. The Grizzlies average 46.8% shooting from the field this season, and should have no problem putting points on the board against a Golden State defense that is surrendering 96.3 points per game. The over is 5-2 in the Grizzlies last seven games against teams from the Pacific division. In head-to-head meetings between these teams the over is 5-2 in the last seven. Memphis has gone over the total in four of their last five road games against teams winning 60% or more of their games at home. The over is also 9-4 in the Grizzlies last 13 games when coming off a performance in which they allowed 100 points or more. |
|||||||
| 11-19-13 | Atlanta Hawks v. Miami Heat UNDER 207 | 88-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Dominator on Heat/Hawks UNDER
The Miami Heat are playing good defense right now. They have held opponents to 98.6 points per game, and they should be able to improve on that number today against an Atlanta team that is very overrated. The Hawks have played a lot of teams that don't bother trying on the defensive end of the court, which has inflated their offensive numbers. The Miami Hear are not one of those teams. Both teams are playing on two days of rest, so they should come out looking sharp on the defensive end of the court. Tired teams usually give up on defense first, so the fact that both teams are well rested puts a lot of value on the under. The Heat are have gone under 22 of their last 31 games against division opponents. This matchup falls into a system to play the under when the total is 200 to 209.5 points, and their is a good team like Atlanta winning 60% to 75% of their games, playing another team with a winning record in the first half of the season. The under has a 48-21 record in this situation. There is also another system to play the under when one of those teams is off a road win against a division opponent, like Miami is, when they are facing another division rival. The under has a 62-28 record over the last five seasons in this situation. |
|||||||
| 11-16-13 | Indiana Pacers v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 180.5 | Top | 94-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
|
5* Total No Brainer on Pacers/Bulls UNDER
With or without Derrick Rose, this total is set far too high. The Indiana Pacers have a great defense. They have held opponents to just 83.7 points per game this season. They are allowing 38.6% from the field, and have played just as good on the road as they do at home. Indiana has gone under the total in eight of their nine games this season. The Chicago Bulls are also solid defensively. They have allowed 78.3 points per game at home, and 89.4 points per game overall this season. The Bulls have given up a 35.4% shooting percentage from the field. What makes this under even more likely is the fact that neither of these teams has been great offensively. The Pacers score 95.9 points per game this season, while the Bulls average 91.7 points per game at home. This matchup falls into a system to play on the under when a team like Indiana is off a home blowout win by 20 points or more and playing an opponent off a road win by 10 points or more. This system is 96-48 in favor of the under. The Bulls have also gone under the total in five of their last six games. |
|||||||
| 11-14-13 | Houston Rockets v. New York Knicks OVER 204.5 | 109-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Dominator on Rockets/Knicks OVER
Neither of these teams plays a lot of defense. The Houston Rockets are allowing 113 points per game when playing on the road, while the Knicks are allowing 103.5 points per game at home. The Knicks have gone over the total in four of their last five games, and the Rockets have gone over in their last two consecutive games. Offensively these teams are capable of putting up some big numbers. Houston is scoring 113.7 points per game on the road this year. They are a great shooting team, averaging 49.7% from the field in those games. The Knicks are averaging 94 points per game at home, but they have played some solid defensive teams. That won't be the case tonight since the Rockets have been horrible defensively regardless of the venue they play in. The Knicks have gone over the total in their last four games against Western Conference opponents. They are also 5-1 to the over in their last six games following an ATS win. Houston has gone over in four of their last five games against Atlantic division teams, and are 4-1 to the over in their last five games following an ATS loss. Expect a shootout in this game because both defenses have failed to show up at the start of the season. |
|||||||
| 11-13-13 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 207.5 | 99-111 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
|
4* Total Dominator on Lakers/Nuggets UNDER
This total appears to be set far too high given the lack of scoring from the Lakers and Nuggets this season. Los Angeles is shooting 42.1% from the field, and I expect another poor shooting performance tonight since the Lakers just played against New Orleans yesterday. When playing on the road the Lakers shooting average drops to 40.4% and they average a mere 95.5 points per game. The Nuggets have also struggled to put points on the board this year. They are averaging 98.7 points per game and should struggle to reach 100 points again tonight against this Lakers team that has held three of their last four opponents under 100 points. Not surprisingly, the Lakers have gone under the total in three of their last four games. The under is 5-2 in Denver's last seven games against Western Conference opponents and 4-1 in their last five games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. This matchup also falls into a system to play the under when one of the teams is coming off a home blowout win by 20 points or more like the Lakers, and their opponent is off a road win by 10 points or more like Denver. This system is 96-47 in favor of the under. |
|||||||
| 11-12-13 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 199 | 95-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Annihilator on Pelicans/Lakers UNDER
As bad as these teams have been shooting, this total seems to be quite a bit higher than it should be. The Pelicans average 94.3 points per game on the road, and that has come against opponents that are surrendering an average of 97 points per game. They are a below average team offensively, and that won't be changing in today's road game against the Lakers. The Pelican's defense has allowed just 94.7 points per game, a number they should match against the struggling Lakers. Los Angeles has shot 40.6% from the field this season. Their opponents are allowing 99.9 points per game, yet they average just 97.2 points per game. This is another indicator for a below average offensive team. Defensively the Lakers statistics are a bit misleading. Their opponents have averaged 104.1 points per game, and Los Angeles allows just 102.5 points per game at home which tells me they are much better defensively than they get credit for. With two below average offenses, and two undervalued defenses, there is a lot of value on the under in this game. This matchup falls into a system to play the under when a team like New Orleans is coming off an upset loss as a favorite when they had a losing record last season. This system is 41-14 (75%) against the spread over the last five seasons. |
|||||||
| 11-09-13 | Utah Jazz v. Toronto Raptors OVER 187 | 91-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Dominator on Jazz/Raptors OVER
There is a lot of value on the over in this matchup between the Jazz and Raptors. The total has been set very low due in large part to the lack of scoring from Utah this season. That changes today when they face a Raptors team that is giving up 95.5 points per game at home this season. In Utah's defense, they have played some surprisingly good defenses this season. Toronto should have no problem making their contribution to the over. They are scoring 94 points per game at home this season. The potential is there for them to increase that number against Utah since the Jazz have allowed an average of 98.6 points per game. The over has a 4-1 record in Toronto's last five home games against a team with a losing record on the road. It is also 4-1 in their last five games against teams from the Northwest division. The over is 9-3 in Utah's last 12 games against Atlantic division teams. In head-to-head meetings between the Jazz and Raptors the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings. |
|||||||
| 11-08-13 | Brooklyn Nets v. Washington Wizards UNDER 197 | Top | 108-112 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
|
5* Total No Brainer on Nets/Wizards UNDER
The total on this game has been set far too high. First of all, the Brooklyn Nets are the better team and they will control the pace of this game. Washington has done a lot of scoring this season, but it has come at an unsustainable level. Against a good team like Brooklyn I don't think they will be able to match there average of 102 points per game at home. Brooklyn is not a fast paced offense. They average just 90 points per game on the road. They know they will need to control the pace of this game and turn it into a defensive battle rather than a shootout. The Nets have an extra day of rest over the Wizards and should be able to prevent their opponents from continuing to shoot 50% from the field. The under is 7-3 in Brooklyn's last 10 games against a team with a losing record. It is also 35-15-1 in Washington's last 50 games following a straight up win. In the last five head to head meetings between these teams the under has a 4-1 record, and a 7-3 record in the last 10 meetings. Expect a strong defensive performance from the Nets, and with their offense struggling on the road this game should easily stay under the total. |
|||||||
| 11-06-13 | Utah Jazz v. Boston Celtics OVER 185 | 87-97 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
|
4* Total Annihilator on Jazz/Celtics OVER
This total is not taking into account just how bad the Jazz have played this season. Utah has given up over 100 points in three of their four games. They face a Celtics team that is averaging 98 points per game at home this season. The Jazz are also playing in back-to-back road games after getting crushed by the Nets last night, so I expect to see the defense come out a little flat footed. The Celtics poor defense will also make a big contribution to this game going over the total. In their only home game of the season the defense gave up 105 points to Milwaukee. The Jazz are averaging 90.7 points per game this season, and I don't think they will continue to shoot as poorly as they have against this soft Celtics defense. The over is 7-3 in Utah's last 10 games when they allowed 100 points or more in their previous game. It is also 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head meetings between these teams. In Boston's last six games against a team with a losing record the over has a perfect 6-0 record. |
|||||||
| 11-05-13 | Indiana Pacers v. Detroit Pistons UNDER 186 | 99-91 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Dominator on Pacers/Pistons UNDER
The Pacers defense ranks among the best in the league. They have held opponents to 83.7 points per game this season, on a 37.9% shooting rate from the field. Even when playing on the road they have been dangerous, allowing 90 points per game on 40% shooting. Surprisingly, the Detroit Piston's defense has also looked solid this season. They did give up over 100 points in their home opener, but that is to be expected in the first game of the season. They tightened things up in their last home game against Boston, holding the Celtics to a mere 77 points. A better indicator of how talented this defense is than points allowed is shooting percentage allowed and Detroit has given up just 42.8% in home games. In the last seven head-to-head meetings between these teams the under has a 5-2 record. Given the history between these teams I expect to see a hard fought defensive battle. This matchup falls into a system to play the under when one of the teams, in this case Detroit, had a losing record last season and they are facing a division opponent. This system is 72-33 in favor of the under. |
|||||||
| 11-01-13 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Boston Celtics UNDER 187 | 105-98 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
|
3* Total No Brainer on Bucks/Celtics UNDER
This matchup features two teams that seriously lack scoring potential. The Celtics lost their leading scorer in the offseason, and it is going to take time for these new players to come together. That means some low scoring games for the Celtics. In their season opener they put up just 87 points on a mediocre Toronto defense. It is a similar story for the Milwaukee Bucks. I can't see this team scoring many points this season after getting rid of a great point guard for a mediocre one with the Jennings for Knight trade, and losing Dunleavy as an unrestricted free agent. This Bucks have been mediocre for years, and if anything they took a step backwards offensively with their offseason moves. The under is 40-16 in Milwaukee's last 56 games when coming off a performance in which they earned five of less offensive rebounds. This matchup also falls into a system to play on the under when a team that won 40% to 49% of their games last season like Boston, is facing another team that had a losing record. This system is 64-29 to the under over the last five seasons. |
|||||||
| 11-01-13 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Washington Wizards OVER 198.5 | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
|
5* Total Dominator on 76ers/Wizards OVER
We learned two things in Philadelphia's season opener. First of all their offensive scoring potential is much improved after the overhaul this team went through in the offseason. They put up 114 points in that home opener against Miami. They also showed us that there is going to be a learning curve while these players learn how to play together. The defense allowed 110 points, and the team had 18 turnovers. It is a very similar story for the Wizards. The managed to score 102 points in their season opener, which was played on the road. With this matchup against Philadelphia being their first home game of the year, I expect the crowed to be fired up and the Wizards to put on an offensive show. Dating back to last season the over is 7-1 in Washington's last eight games against Eastern Conference opponents. It is also 6-1 in their last seven games following a loss. It is 15-5 in home games when Washington is coming off a road loss over the last two seasons. The 76ers are also trending towards the over, posting a 51-31 record to the over against Southeast division opponents. |
|||||||
| 06-20-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Miami Heat UNDER 189 | 88-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
|
4* Total Annihilator on Spurs/Heat UNDER
I expect to see the Heat concentrate on a better defensive performance in game 7 tonight. With the shooting from the Spurs role players leveling off and San Antonio using everything left in the tank in game 6 that should be an easy task to accomplish. Miami still has some offensive problems of their own which makes the under a strong value play in today's matchup. Miami has gone under the total in 5 of their last 9 games in the playoffs and it not for overtime in the last game that record would easily be 6-3. The Heat defense has been great in the playoffs allowing an average of just 90.8 points per game. The Spurs defense has also been solid holding their playoff opponents to 93.2 points per game. The under is 7-2 in the Spurs last 9 road games against a team with a winning record and 17-5 in their last 22 road games overall. These teams have a history of staying under the total when playing in Miami. In head to head matchups the under is 12-4 in the last 16 games when the Heat are at home. |
|||||||
| 06-18-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Miami Heat UNDER 191 | 100-103 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Annihilator on Spurs/Heat UNDER
The Miami defense has been respectable this season, especially when playing at home. They have held opponents to 94 points per game while scoring just 96.2 points per game against the Spurs. The first two games of this series played in Miami stayed well under the posted total of 190 points and 189.5 points so there is a lot of value on the under as we come back to Miami with an even higher total set on this game. When playing on the road the Spurs have taken a defensive oriented approach rather than a shoot quickly and score approach like they use at home. This is exactly why San Antonio held Miami to just 88 points in the series opener of this game. While both of these teams have been shooting well in San Antonio I expect that to level out as we head back to Miami. The under is 13-3 in the Spurs last 16 road games against a team winning 60% or more of their games at home and it is 17-4 in their last 21 road games overall. The under is 4-0 in Miami's last 4 home games and 12-3 in the last 15 head to head meetings between these teams when the game is being played in Miami. |
|||||||
| 06-01-13 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 183 | 77-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Annihilator on Heat/Pacers UNDER
Even though the Pacers lost game 5 of this series they can |
|||||||
| 05-28-13 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 185.5 | Top | 92-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
|
5* Total Playoff Game of the Year on Heat/Pacers UNDER
Indiana made the mistake of letting the Heat control the pace of the last game and it cost them. I don |
|||||||
| 05-26-13 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 182.5 | Top | 114-96 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
|
5* Total Dominator on Pacers/Heat UNDER
The Indiana Pacers have the second best defense in the NBA. They are playing on their home court for today |
|||||||
| 05-13-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 184.5 | 97-103 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 3 m | Show | |
|
4* Total Dominator on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER
The oddsmakers are still not giving any love to the Grizzlies defense this season. This line is especially high considering Oklahoma City |
|||||||
| 05-11-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 186.5 | 81-87 | Win | 100 | 30 h 16 m | Show | |
|
4* Total Annihilator on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER
The oddsmakers continue to underestimate the talent of this Memphis defense. The Grizzlies have held opponents to 87.2 points per game at home this season. Offensively they do not do much to be concerned about going over the total as they are scoring a mere 93.9 points per game. The Thunder are 17-3 to the UNDER when coming off 2 consecutive games as a home favorite this season. The Grizzlies are also trending towards the under at 14-5 when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season. The Grizzlies defense is dangerous enough when they are playing almost every day, but given some rest and they should be performing at their best against the Thunder. When the series is tied both teams feel like they are playing in a must win situation. In these scenarios teams will often make defensive adjustments rather than finding additional ways to score. This is why you should always play the under when the total is 180 to 189.5 points when both teams have a winning record on the season and they are playing in a playoffs series that is tied. This system is 34-16 (68%) over the last five seasons. |
|||||||
| 05-10-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 203 | 102-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Dominator on Golden State/Spurs UNDER
With the series tied at 1-1 I expect both of these teams to step up their play defensively. This matchup falls into a system to play on the under when the total is 200 to 209.5 points and the home team is well rested, playing 4 games or less in the last 10 days, and they are winning 51% to 60% of their games on the season, and playing against a team with a winning record. This system is 35-10 (78%) to the UNDER for the last five seasons. The Spurs are holding opponents to 96.5 points per game this year while Golden State is holding opponents to 97.7 points per game at home. Four of the last six games between these teams have gone under the total. In game 2 of this series the Warriors held San Antonio to 39.3% shooting from the field and in game 1 the Spurs were held to 43.8% shooting. If not for a double overtime in the first game of this series this total would be set several points lower than it is today. The Spurs are 18-7 to the under after playing two consecutive home games this season while Golden State is 13-4 to the under when playing as a home favorite of 3 points or less over the past two seasons. The fact that this series is tied means that both teams feel like they are playing in a must win situation. Nobody wants to be down in the series with the championship dreams on the line. Golden State is playing well defensively right now and the Spurs have to be making defensive adjustments to keep the Warriors from getting points on the board. All signs point to a defensive battle tonight with this game staying under the total. |
|||||||
| 05-08-13 | Chicago Bulls v. Miami Heat UNDER 187 | 78-115 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 26 m | Show | |
|
4* Total Dominator on Heat/Bulls UNDER
The total on this game is set far too high considering how well both of these defenses are playing right now. Miami has gone under the total in four of the last five playoffs games. They have done so while shooting a spectacular 48% from the field. The Bulls are also shooting well, but they are not scoring a lot of points. This is because the style of play for both of these teams requires taking time off the clock to setup each possession. It is not just game one of this series that went under the total. In head to head matchups the under is 4-1 in the last 5 games played at Miami. The Heat are 6-0 to the under in their last 6 games against NBA central teams. The Bulls are also trending towards the under at 5-2 in the last 7 against teams with a winning record. Chicago has held opponents to 93.3 points per game on average this season. The Heat had also had impressive defensive numbers holding opponents to 94.5 points per game. Considering the fact that both of these teams run a slowdown offense they are the perfect matchup scenario to stay under the total. |
|||||||
| 05-04-13 | CHICAGO GM7 v. BROOKLYN GM7 UNDER 182 | Top | 99-93 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
|
5* Total No Brainer on Nets/Bulls UNDER
With the series between these teams being tied at 3-3 I expect both coaches to be making defensive adjustments coming into game 7. You should always play the under when the total is between 180 to 189.5 points when the playoff series is tied and both teams have a winning record. This system is 34-14 (71%) to the under throughout the last 5 seasons. Both of these teams are solid defensively with the Bulls holding opponents to 93.4 points per game and the Nets holding opponents to 94.6 points per game on their home court. The fact that one of these teams will be eliminated after tonight |
|||||||
| 05-02-13 | Brooklyn Nets v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 184 | 95-92 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
|
4* Total Annihilator on Nets/Bulls UNDER
Brooklyn is 19-7 to the UNDER when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days while Chicago is 13-5 to the UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season. The fact that this game is being played in Chicago should also help the total. The Bulls have allowed a mere 91.5 points per game at home this season. The first game played in Chicago ended with a 76-79 final score staying well under the total of 182 points. The second game played at Chicago went way over the total due to the game extending out into triple overtime. The total on that game was set at 176.5 points and it seems like a much more appropriate total for this game over the 184 it is set at today. Neither team has been spectacular on offense with the Nets averaging 96.6 points per game on the road and the Bulls averaging just 93.7 points at home. After Chicago was blown out to the tune of 110-91 in the last game I expect to see them make a conscious effort to play better defense. They should have a much easier time controlling the pace of this game playing on their home court which makes the under the value play. |
|||||||
| 04-29-13 | Chicago Bulls v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 180.5 | 91-110 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Annihilator on Bulls/Nets UNDER
If not for triple overtime in the last game, the series between the Bulls and Nets has seen very little offensive production. The under is 6-2 in Chicago's last 8 road games and 31-14 in their last 45 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. In the last two games played at Brooklyn the Bulls were held to 90 points or less. The series is back in Brooklyn for today's game and should play out very similar to those first two games. The extra rest that comes in the post season can be a big help when it comes to playing defense. This matchup calls into a system to play on the under when one of the teams is a well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, and they have won 51% to 60% of their games on the season and playing against another team with a winning record. This system is 226-159 (59%) to the under for the last 5 seasons. Nets Head Coach P.J. Carlesimo is 37-17 to the UNDER in home games off a road loss in all games he has coached since 1996. Tom Thibodeau is 20-6 to the UNDER after allowing 105 points or more as the coach of Chicago. With the day off coming into this game I expect both teams to step up their defensive efforts and that will keep this game under the total. |
|||||||
| 04-27-13 | Brooklyn Nets v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 178 | 134-142 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
|
4* Total No Brainer on Bulls/Nets UNDER
After Thursday's game between these teams it is obvious that both the Bulls and the Nets are struggling to put points on the board this postseason. This series has now fallen into a system to play on the UNDER when the total is between 170 and 179.5 points and the road team scored 35 points or less in the first half of their last game, and the home team is coming off a combined score of 160 points or less. This system is 25-6 (81%) to the UNDER. The Nets have an average defense, holding opponents to 94.8 points per game. However, their defense performs much better when they are well-rested which is why the Bulls have not been able to do a lot of scoring in this series. Brooklyn is 19-6 to the UNDER when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season. It is a similar story for Chicago as they are 11-3 to the UNDER in that same scenario. The Brooklyn Nets are not shooting well, averaging just 35% in the past two games of this series. The Bulls have not been shooting well either, but that is to be expected from a team that averages 92.9 points per game and is up against a solid defense. The Bulls have been phenomenal on the defensive end of the court when they are playing at home. Chicago has held opponents to 90.5 points per game and with Brooklyn being an average scoring team, at best, this game should stay well under the total. |
|||||||
| 04-26-13 | New York Knicks v. Boston Celtics OVER 183.5 | Top | 90-76 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
|
5* Total Dominator on New York/Boston OVER
The first two games between these teams have been a bit of a statistical anomaly. It is unlikely that Boston will continue to shoot 39.25% like they have so far. New York has shot well below their 44.7% average going 64-155 shooting 41.29% in the playoffs. With the Celtics averaging 47.7% at home they should have no problem putting more points on the board for today's game. You should always play on the over when one team is coming off a blowout win by 15 points or more against an opponent that scored 80 points or less in two straight games. This system is 46-20 (70%) to the OVER. The reason this particular situation results in such a high percentage of games going over the total is because teams will make offensive adjustments when they are struggling to score while the oddsmakers are forced to lower lines to match scoring trends. Defensively neither team has been great this season. The Knicks are allowing 97.4 points per game when playing on the road while Boston has allowed 96.5 per game. The change in venue is just the spark these teams need to start putting points on the board and because of their poor shooting to start this series the oddsmakers have been forced to set this total much lower than it should be. |
|||||||
| 04-25-13 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 179.5 | Top | 82-94 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
|
5* Total No Brainer on Memphis UNDER
The Grizzlies are known for their defense and physical play in the pain. Playing at home with rest should help their defense step up the level of play in the post season. Memphis is 12-1 (92%) to the under when playing 4 or less games in a 10 day span this season. This matchup also falls into a system to play on the under when the total is 179.5-189.5 points in a game involving two teams holding opponents to 43.5-45.5% shooting and the road team is a good ball handling team averaging 14.5 or less turnovers per game against an average pressure defense that forces 14.5-16.5 turnovers. This system is 41-22 (65%) over the last 5 seasons. The last two games have gone over the total because the Clippers have been able to shoot an average above 50% from the field. A change in venue is more than enough to slow the Clippers down and the Grizzlies are not a team that lights up the scoreboard at home averaging just 93.2 points per game. The under is the value play in a game that should end up being a defensive battle. |
|||||||
| 04-25-13 | Brooklyn Nets v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 182 | 76-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
|
3* Total Dominator on Brooklyn/Chicago UNDER
After the Bulls let the Nets score 106 points in the series opener we saw a defense oriented game plan in the second game of this series. The series is now tied at 1-1 which places this game in a system to play on the UNDER. Over the past 5 seasons you would have an 80-42 (66%) record if playing the under in a playoff series that is tied. The venue has now moved to Chicago where the Bulls have held opponents to 90.9 points per game. The Bulls are 25-16 to the under in home games on the season. Defensively the Nets are not far behind Chicago holding opponents to 95 points per game. In the playoffs they held Chicago to 89 points in game 1 of the series and 90 points in game 2. The under is 19-9 in the Nets last 28 games being played on 2 or more days of rest. In head to head meetings being played at Chicago the under is 5-2 and the Bulls are 5-1 to the under in their last 6 Conference Quarterfinals game. The oddsmakers have set the total far too high for a matchup that features two strong defensive units and a pair of offenses that rarely light up the scoreboard with points. |
|||||||
| 04-24-13 | Los Angeles Lakers v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 186.5 | Top | 91-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
|
5* NBA Total Dominator on Lakers/Spurs OVER
The first game in this series stayed easily UNDER the 191 total that was set and in the second to last regular season game the teams played well UNDER the posted total of 193. However, dropping this total down to 186.5 is an over-adjustment by the odds makers as I think you will see both teams play better offensively here tonight. The Lakers are giving up 46.3% from the floor on the road and 38.3% from 3-point range while San Antonio shoots 49.4% from the floor and 38.3% from deep at home. The Lakers shoot 45.8% from the floor while the Spurs allow 44.2%. The fact that both teams shot 41.1% or worse the last two times these two teams met and have hit less than a third of their 3-point attempts means it's time for some regression back to the mean. The Lakers are 10-2 for the OVER this year when taking to the road to face a team that outscores their opponents by 3+ ppg. This one goes OVER the low total here tonight. |
|||||||
| 04-21-13 | Los Angeles Lakers v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 190.5 | 79-91 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
|
4* Total Dominator on Lakers/Spurs UNDER
These two teams met just a week ago in LA and the final score was 86-91. I know Steve Nash will be playing tonight and he normally ups the tempo and creates on offense, but the Lakers are not as good offensively without Kobe Bryant on the floor. Against the Rockets in their final regular season game they went well under the total as well. San Antonio is an under-rated defensive team that only allows 94.3 ppg at home. They are coming off a high scoring first half in their last game, but the Spurs are 11-3 UNDER this season after putting up 60 or more in the first half of their previous game. The Lakers are 17-7 UNDER the last two years against teams that score 103+ ppg while the Sprus are 23-13 UNDER this year against teams above .500. This one will be low scoring so take the UNDER. |
|||||||
Get Info Plays Premium Picks
Featured Handicappers
Brandon Lee Get an Edge Over Your Sports Book Get Brandon Lee's Premium Picks Jack Jones If You Aren't Winning, You Don't Know Jack See What Jack Has on Tap Tonight Steve Janus Winning Sports Picks. Check Out Steve's Premium PicksPremium Picks
Odds
© 2015 - InfoPlays.com