3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on 76ers/Jazz UNDER

The books have set the total way too high for this matchup. These two teams played in Philadelphia back on 10/30 and combined for just 170 points in a 18-point win for the Jazz. With the 76ers expected to be without leading scorer Jahlil Okafor and the Raptors playing without 3rd leading scorer Alec Burks and potentially 2nd leading scorer Derrick Favors (questionable), offense is going to be hard to come by for these two teams. 

Adding to this is the fact that Utah plays at the slowest pace of any team in the league, while the 76ers have the least efficient offense in the league. There's also a great chance this game turns into a blowout, which is a good sign for a game to under the total. 

UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in the series (each of the last 3 have seen 172 or less points). UNDER is also 20-7-1 in the 76ers last 28 following a SU win, 20-8 in Utah's last 28 vs the Eastern Conference, 18-8 in their last 26 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 38-17 in the Jazz's last 55 when facing an opponent who scored 100+ points in their last game. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Lakers/Grizzlies UNDER

Memphis will be returning home looking to bounce back from back-to-back road losses against the Wizards and Hornets. The Grizzlies scored just 91 and 92 points in those two games and are averaging just 94.2 ppg over their last 5. Memphis isn't a team that likes to play fast and rarely puts up a lot of points. In fact, they have eclipsed the 100-point mark just 2 times in their last 13 games. 

The Lakers aren't a great defensive team by any means, but are certainly capable of keeping the Grizzlies from scoring enough here to push this over the mark. Offensively, we don't have to worry too much about LA, as they are scoring just 89.0 ppg over their last 5 and Memphis is only giving up 93.8 ppg over their last 5. 

UNDERis 12-4 in the Lakers last 16 when they come in having lost 3 of their last 4 and 13-4 in their last 17 when off a home loss by 10 or more points. UNDER is also 21-4-1 in the Grizzlies last 26 against the Pacific, 5-1 in their last 6 when playing on no rest, 11-3-1 in their last 15 on Sunday and 6-2 in their last 8 off a SU loss. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Situational Over/Under Total No Brainer on Cavs/Blazers UNDER

The Cavaliers have allowed 90 or fewer points in 3 straight games, including a dominant defensive effort in yesterday's 83-89 loss at Golden State, which marked the first time since 2013 that the Warriors failed to score at least 90-points at home. Losing that game is only going to have the Cavaliers that much more motivated to come out and get a win against Portland. 

The Blazers aren't a great defensive team by any means, but we can expect a max effort here from Portland on that side of the ball given they are playing against James and the Cavs. UNDER is a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams in Portland. Under is also 4-0 in the Cavaliers last 4 road games and 40-16 in their last 56 when facing an opponent that allowed 100 or more points in their previous game. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Bulls/Mavs UNDER

The Bulls put an end to their 3-game losing streak with a dominant performance in yesterday's 105-96 win at Oklahoma City as a 10-point underdog. Chicago limited the Thunder to just 38.5% shooting and I look for that defensive intensity to carry over against the Mavericks, who are playing with starting point guard Deron Williams. 

At the same time, I look for Dallas to match the intensity of the Bulls on the defensive side of the floor. Dallas is only giving up 97.2 ppg and holding opponents to just 43.8% shooting against them at home. UNDER is 20-8 in the Bulls last 28 against the Western Conference, 8-1 in their last 9 off a cover and 20-8-1 in their last 29 after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game. UNDER is also 7-1 in Mavs last 8 home games and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take the UNDER! 

5* Cavs/Warriors NBA Christmas Day Vegas Insider on UNDER

These Christmas Day games have become quite the tradition and the NBA does their best to schedule quality games between some of the better teams in the league. With all other sports taking a back seat on Christmas, these games get a lot of public attention and thus the oddsmakers almost always inflate the totals knowing how much the public loves to back the over. 

At the same time, the players know these are some of the most watched games of the regular season and going up against a quality opponent in the spotlight of a nationally televised game almost always brings out their best performance. Whenever a team is motivated that leads to a lot of intensity on the defensive side of the floor. I think it's about as close as we get to a playoff type atmosphere during the regular season. 

All of this points heavily in the direction of the UNDER and this theory has been well proven over the years. Dating back to 2005, games played on Christmas Day have gone UNDER the total at a 67.5% clip (27-13-1). Taking this a step further, if you just look at non-conference games, the UNDER in these matchups has gone 13-3 (81%). As you have probably guessed by now, this is the main reasoning behind taking the UNDER in this game. 

It's also worth noting that the UNDER is 8-3-1 in the Cavs last 12 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs a team with a winning home record. UNDER is also 6-1 in Cleveland's last 7 off a SU, 11-4 in the Warriors last 15 against the Central Division, and 15-7-2 in their last 24 home games. Take the UNDER! 

4* Bulls/Thunder NBA Situational Total Annihilator on UNDER

These Christmas Day games have become quite the tradition and the NBA does their best to schedule quality games between some of the better teams in the league. With all other sports taking a back seat on Christmas, these games get a lot of public attention and thus the oddsmakers almost always inflate the totals knowing how much the public loves to back the over. 

At the same time, the players know these are some of the most watched games of the regular season and going up against a quality opponent in the spotlight of a nationally televised game almost always brings out their best performance. Whenever a team is motivated that leads to a lot of intensity on the defensive side of the floor. I think it's about as close as we get to a playoff type atmosphere during the regular season. 

All of this points heavily in the direction of the UNDER and this theory has been well proven over the years. Dating back to 2005, games played on Christmas Day have gone UNDER the total at a 67.5% clip (27-13-1). Taking this a step further, if you just look at non-conference games, the UNDER in these matchups has gone 13-3 (81%). As you have probably guessed by now, this is the main reasoning behind taking the UNDER in this game. 

It's also worth noting that the UNDER is 10-1 in the Bulls last 11 against the Western Conference, 15-4-2 in their last 21 when playing with 3 or more days of rest and 23-9 in their last 32 road games against a team with a winning home record. UNDER is also also 7-0 in the Thunder's last 7 home games, 8-1 in their last 9 against the Eastern Conference and 20-7-1 in their last 28 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Early Bird Christmas Day Total No Brainer on Pelicans/Heat UNDER

These Christmas Day games have become quite the tradition and the NBA does their best to schedule quality games between some of the better teams in the league. With all other sports taking a back seat on Christmas, these games get a lot of public attention and thus the oddsmakers almost always inflate the totals knowing how much the public loves to back the over.

At the same time, the players know these are some of the most watched games of the regular season and going up against a quality opponent in the spotlight of a nationally televised game almost always brings out their best performance. Whenever a team is motivated that leads to a lot of intensity on the defensive side of the floor. I think it's about as close as we get to a playoff type atmosphere during the regular season.

All of this points heavily in the direction of the UNDER and this theory has been well proven over the years. Dating back to 2005, games played on Christmas Day have gone UNDER the total at a 67.5% clip (27-13-1). Taking this a step further, if you just look at non-conference games, the UNDER in these matchups has gone 13-3 (81%). As you have probably guessed by now, this is the main reasoning behind taking the UNDER in this game. 

It's also worth noting that the UNDER is 9-3 in Miami's last 12 against the Western Conference, 15-5 in their last 20 when playing with 2 days rest and 7-3 in their last 10 games following a SU loss. UDNER is also 35-16-1 in the Pelicans last 52 road games (6-2-1 in last 8 against team with a winning home record) and 5-2 in their last 7 against the Eastern Conference. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Pelicans/Blazers UNDER

These two teams recently played in Portland on 12/14 and combined for 206 points, which I believe has created some exceptional value here on the UNDER in the rematch. Not only are the two teams more familiar with one another having just recently played, but the Blazers have no choice but to try and slow this game down with Damian Lillard out and C.J. McCollum doubtful. 

Not having these two leave Portland without a go-to scorer. Lillard averages a team-high 24.6 ppg and McCollum is right behind at 20.1 ppg. The next best scorer on the Blazers is Al-Farouq Aminu at a mere 10.9 ppg. Making matters even worse, Portland will be playing their 5th straight on the road and 3rd in the last 4 days. 

The Pelicans are coming off a 130-point effort in their win at Denver on Sunday, but only averaged 98.8 ppg over their previous 5. With New Orleans coming off a 5-game road trip and Portland in the shape they are in with the injuries to their two best players, I could see the Pelicans struggling to get up for this game, especially considering they have a huge showdown with the Heat on deck Christmas Day. 

Either way New Orleans figures to win here comfortably and that should have this game finishing well below the mark. UNDER is 8-2 in the Blazers last 10 off a cover and 5-1 in their last 6 when playing a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 4-0 in the Pelicans last 4  off a win  and 15-5-1 in their last 21 after scoring 100+ points in their previous game. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Total of the Month on Mavs/Nets UNDER

I'm expecting a very low-scoring game here between the Mavericks and Nets tonight. Dallas won't be looking to push the pace offensively playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, especially after using up a ton energy last night at Toronto trying to rally from a 13-point halftime deficit. The Mavericks also haven't been playing great offensively of late, as they have scored 99 or less in 3 straight. 

It doesn't figure to get any better against the Nets, as Dallas lost starting point guard Deron Williams to a hamstring injury against the Raptors. They also aren't expected to have backup point guard Devin Harris, leaving them thin at the point and thus must play at a slower pace. The Nets are coming off a 105-102 win at Chicago, but this is a team that is not great offensively. Brooklyn had scored 97 or less in each of their previous 4 and have only cracked the century mark 4 time sin their last 14 games. 

UNDER is 36-17 in the Mavericks last 53 games against a bad team like the Nets, who have won fewer than 40% of their games. UNDER is also 10-4 in Dallas' last 14 against an opponent coming off a 100-point game and 4-0 in the Nets last 4 games after scoring 100 or more. UNDER is also 10-3 in Brooklyn's last 13 against the Western Conference and 4-1 in their last 5 at home. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Eastern Conf Total of the Month on UNDER

The books have set the total too high for tonight's showdown between the Pistons and Heat, which isn't a big surprise given Detroit has played in 3 straight games where 200+ points were scored, including a 4-overtime thriller at Chicago in their last game where 191 combined points were scored. Miami also comes in off a high-scoring game, as they defeated the Blazers 116-109 at home. 

The key here is that this game is being played in Miami and the Heat should be able to dictate the tempo. Miami is only scoring 96.8 ppg on the season and allowing just 94.9 ppg. Detroit only averages 99.0 ppg on the road and should come out with a lot of energy on defense after a 3-day break. These two teams played earlier this season in Detroit and combined for just 185 points and that was with the Pistons exploding for 60 points in the 1st half. 

It's also worth noting that Detroit won that first meeting 104-81, as the UNDER is 9-1 in the Heat's last 10 when revenging a road loss and 7-0 in Miami's last 7 when revenging a loss of 10 or more points. UNDER is also 11-0 in Miami's last 11 after allowing 105 or more points in 2 straight games, 16-4 in Detroit's last 20 road games after playing their last game as a road dog and 9-1 in their last 10 road games when playing 4 or less gams in 10 days. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Raptors/Hornets UNDER

The Raptors and Hornets both come into this game off a lopsided loss in their last contest and their poor play defensively is to blame. Toronto gave up 106 points in a 16-point defeat at Indiana on Monday and Charlotte allowed 113 last night in a 15-point defeat at Orlando. 

The big key here is that these were uncharacteristic defensive performances for both teams. The Raptors had held each of their previous 4 opponents to 94 or less points, while the Hornets had allowed a team to eclipse the century mark just once in their previous 9 games and that was the Warriors.

Adding to this is the fact that Toronto is only giving up 95.9 ppg on the road and Charlotte is allowing just 96.4 ppg at home. It's also worth noting that these two teams have combined for less than 200 points in 6 of their last 7 meetings and the lone exception came in overtime where they totaled 206. 

UNDER is 6-0 in the Raptors last 6 road games, 5-0 in their last 5 against the Eastern Conference, 8-3 in their last 11 off 2 days of rest and 4-1 in their last 5 off a SU loss. UNDER is also 6-1 in the Hornets last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record, 5-1 in their last 6 when playing on 0 days of rest, 32-18 in their last 50 home games after playing their previous on the road and 29-12 in their last 41 as a home favorite of 6 points or less. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Southeast Total of the Month on Hornets/Magic UNDER 

The books have set this total too high for this division matchup. Both of these teams come into this game playing extremely well on the defensive end. Charlotte is allowing just 91.6 ppg over their last 5 and Orlando is giving up just 95.4 ppg in their last 5. 

Just 1.5 games separate these two teams in the Southeast and that should have both playing with a lot of energy on the defensive side of the ball. We have seen several low-scoring games when these two face off against division opponents. Charlotte has seen an average combined score of 188.6 in their 5 division games and the Magic average a combined score of just 191 in division matchups. It's also worth noting that each of the last 3 meetings between these two teams last year saw a combined score of 196 or less with both games in Orlando finishing with 188 or less. 

UNDER is 12-2-2 in the Hornets last 16 against an opponent who scored 100+ points in their previous games, 11-4 in their last 15 following a SU loss and 6-1 in their last 7 against the Eastern Conference. UNDER is also 4-1 in Orlando's last 5 home games, 5-1-1 in their last 7 against a team with a winning record and 7-1 in their last 8 division games. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Situational Over/Under Total Annihilator on UNDER

These two teams just played on Friday and I cashed in on the UNDER 204 with ease in a 94-90 win by Oklahoma City. While the books have adjusted the total for the rematch, there's still a ton of value on the UNDER in this one. 

Oklahoma City has gone UNDER the total in 8 of their last 9 games, including each of their last 4 at home. The Jazz have gone UNDER in each of their last 2 and 7 of 11 overall. These two teams also have a history of low-scoring games, as each of the last 6 in the series have finished below the mark. Having just played 2 days ago against each other only adds to the likelihood of another low-scoring game, as both teams are very familiar with what the other wants to do offensively.

UNDER is 11-3 in Utah's last 14 against a team with a winning record and 7-2 in their last 9 against the Western Conference. UNDER is also 6-0 in the Thunder's last 6 against a team with a losing record and 9-1 in their last 10 off a SU win. Take the UNDER!  

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Pacers/Pistons UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive showdown tonight between these two Central Division rivals, as both of these teams can really get after it on the defensive side of the ball. After giving up 120+ points during a 3-game losing streak, the Pacers responded by allowing just 83 in a 13-point win over the Heat last night. I look for Indiana to carry over that effort on the defensive side of the ball against a Pistons team that only averages 98.4 ppg. 

Detroit has held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 95 or less and are giving up just 96.2 ppg at home on the season. The Pistons will be especially motivated in this one, after losing at home to the Pacers by 12 earlier this season. Keep in mind that earlier meeting saw a combined 176 points in a 94-82 Indiana win. 

UNDER is 41-26 in the Pacers last 67 games off a home win, 24-9 in their last 33 against a team with a winning record and 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team that's won 60% or more of their home games. UNDER is also 6-0 in the Pistons last 6 against at team that's won more than 60% of their games and 5-1 in their last 6 when playing on 0 days of rest. Take the UNDER 201! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Thunder/Jazz UNDER

I believe the books have set the mark too high for this matchup. Oklahoma City has gone UNDER the total in 7 of their last 8 games. One of the reasons we are seeing a high total here is the Jazz have gone over in 4 of their last 5, but they come in off a game against the Knicks where they allowed just 85 points at home for a combined score of 191. 

These two teams played at Utah earlier this season and combined for 200 points and that was with the Thunder shooting a ridiculous 54.5% from the field and 40.7% from behind the 3-point line. Oklahoma City also had a 40-point outburst in the 2nd quarter. The game still went UNDER the posted total of 201 and that's now 5 straight in the series and 3 in a row at Utah where they have gone UNDER the total. 

A key factor here is that we have the Thunder coming into this game playing in the 2nd of a back-to-back set, as they hosted the Hawks last night. It's also OKC's 3rd game in 4 nights and 5 different players played 30+ minutes last night. The Thunder aren't going to have the legs to push the pace in this one and tired legs typically leads to poorer shooting from the outside. 

UNDER is 10-0 in the Thunder's last 10 after scoring 100+ in 2 straight games and 8-0 in their last 8 after 2 straight wins. UNDER is also 10-3 in the Jazz's last 13 against a team with a winning record and 11-4 in their last 15 off a SU win by more than 10 points. Take the UNDER! 

4* Bulls/Clippers TNT Total Dominator on UNDER

I think we are seeing an inflated total here due to the fact that both teams come in having eclipsed the total in each of their last 3 games. The key thing to note is that these games have barely gone over for both teams. in the Clippers 3-0 over run two of those games only went over by 6 points or less. As for the Bulls, their last 3 games have all gone over by a combined 7.5 points and all 3 can be pinpointed to poor defensive effort in the 4th quarter, as Chicago has allowed 30, 42 and 30 in the final period of their last 3 games.

With this being a prime time game on TNT and these two teams being two of the more respected clubs in the NBA, I think we are going to get max defensive effort from both sides. I especially expect to see the Bulls get after it on that side of the ball on their home floor after losing 3 straight.

When the Bulls have hosted whats considered to be an elite opponent, it's resumed in a low scoring game. Chicago beat Cleveland at home 97-95, Oklahoma City 104-98, Indiana 96-95 and the Spurs 92-89. All 4 of which went under the total set for that game by at least 6 points.

UNDER is 8-0 this season in Bulls' games when they come in having played their previous game on the road, 7-1 in their last 8 against the Western Conference, 9-2-1 in their last 12 home games and 13-2-1 in their last 16 after scoring 100+ in their last game. UNDER is also 4-1 in the Clippers last 5 when playing on 0 days of rest and 5-1 in their last 6 when facing a team that allowed 100+ in their previous game. Take the UNDER!  

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Heat/Hornets UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring affair between these two Southeast rivals on Wednesday as first place in the division is up for grabs. Miami is coming off a rare high-scoring game in a 103-114 loss at home to the Wizards on Monday. It was only the 4th time this season that a game involving the Heat finished over the total, as the under is 15-4 in their 19 games to this point. 

It also marked the first time that Miami eclipsed the 100-point mark in 8 games and they barely did so despite shooting a ridiculous 59.4% from the field. At the same time the Heat allowed the Wizards to shoot 50% from the field, only the 2nd time all season they have allowed a team to shoot 50% or better. The only other time was against the Kings back on 11/19 and they followed that up by allowing 91 points and 37.8% shooting in their newt game. 

Not only is this a prime spot for Miami to bounce back with a strong defensive effort, but we can also expect to see the Heat offense struggle here against a stingy Hornets defense that is allowing just 97.6 ppg and holding teams to 43.9% shooting at home. 

The last time these two teams faced off in Charlotte, they combined for a mere 154 points, which was the 3rd time in the last 4 meetings at Charlotte that they combined for 185 or less. UNDER is 11-1 in Heat's last 12 after a home game where both teams scored 100+ points and 14-4 in the Hornets last 18 home games off 2 or more consecutive wins. Take the UNDER! 

5* Western Conference Total of the Month on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER

These two teams combined for 236 points in the Grizzlies 122-114 win at home back on Nov. 16 and it's resulted in an inflated total in the rematch. That was only the second time in the last 10 meetings that these two teams combined for more than 200 points. 

One of the big reasons that we consistently see lower-scoring games between these two teams, is the familiarity they have of one another. This will be the 40th meeting between these two teams since the beginning of the 2010-11 season, which is the most of any two teams in the league during this stretch. 

While the first meeting saw a lot of offense, I think both defenses come to play this time around. Memphis has held 6 of their last 8 opponents under 100 points and the Thunder have allowed a team to eclipse the century mark just once in their last 6 games. It's also worth noting that both teams come in not shooting the ball well, especially from long distance. The Grizzlies are just 24.9% from the 3-point line in their last 4 games and OKC is only hitting 29.6% in their last 4.

UNDER is 13-4 in the Grizzlies last 17 home games off a home win, 17-5 in their last 22 after a close win by 3 points or less and 15-5 in their last 20 with a total set at 200 or more points. The UNDER is also 5-0 in the Thunder's last 5 road games against a team that has won more than 60% of their home games, and 7-0 in their last 7 off a SU win. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on OVER

The Pelicans and Celtics should have no problem eclipsing this high total tonight. Boston comes in averaging 102.7 ppg on the season and are allowing 100.5 ppg on the road. New Orleans is scoring 110.1 ppg at home and giving up 111.7 ppg at home. 

Both teams come in having scored at least 100 points in 3 straight games and the Pelicans have allowed 100+ in 7 straight. Boston has played good defense at times, but this is not a good spot for them. The Celtics will be playing their 5th straight road game and have two huge home games on deck against the Bulls and Warriors. 

OVER is 34-16 in Boston's last 50 road games with a total set at 210 or more points and 13-1 in the Pelicans last 14 home games after scoring 100 or more points in 2 straight games. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Cavs/Heat UNDER 191.5

These two teams combined for 194 points in an earlier meeting this season in Cleveland and both teams are coming off games in which the final score was more than the total listed for this matchup. This might have some looking to play the over, but I think the smart play here is to take the UNDER. 

Those that have watched Miami know that the Heat are built on defense. Miami only averages 96.3 ppg offensively, but are allowing just 92.6 ppg on the defensive side of the floor. They are holding opponents to just 41.0% shooting from the field. The Heat should be able to impose their will defensively in this one, as they catch a tired Cavaliers team playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set that saw them play an overtime game last night at New Orleans. 

Cleveland lost to the Pelicans and have no dropped 2 straight. LeBron James does not take lightly to losing and certainly doesn't want to lose against his former team and close friends. However, James played 45 minutes last night and knows that his team's only chance here is to turn this into a defensive battle, as they don't have the legs to get into a shootout. 

UNDER is 12-3 in the Cavaliers last 15 road games when they come in having failed to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 games and 4-1 in their last 5 when the starting 5 combined for more than 160 minutes in the previous game when playing on 0 days rest. UNDER is also 9-2 in Miami's 11 home games and 23-9 in their last 32 off a SU win. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Magic/Jazz UNDER 191

The books have set the total too high for Thursday's matchup between the Magic and Jazz. A big reason for that is these two teams recently played in Orlando on 11/13 and the two combined for 195 points with a total of just 189.5. It was only the 2nd time in the last 5 meetings that these two went over the total and each of the last two games played in Utah have finished under the mark. 

There's plenty of reason to expect a low-scoring game. While the Magic are giving up 99.6 ppg on the season, they have been much better of late on that side of the ball. Orlando has held each of their last 4 opponents to 93 or less. Utah is far from an explosive offensive team and are scoring just 94.5 ppg at home. The Jazz are also very good defensively, allowing just 94.0 ppg and we can expect to see Utah really get after it defensively tonight with that recent loss to the Magic fresh on their minds. 

UNDER is 9-2 in the Magic's last 11 off back-to-back upset wins as an underdog and 3-1 this season when listed as a road dog of 6 points or less. UNDER is 3-0 this season after the Jazz allow 105 or more points in their previous game, 8-1 in their last 9 after allowing 100+ in 3 straight and 4-0 this season when listed as a home favorite of 6 points or less. Take the UNDER! 

3* Heat/Thunder TNT Total Dominator on UNDER

Not surprised here to see the books set a big number for the total of this nationally televised matchup between the Heat and Thunder tonight. A big reason for that is the Thunder come in averaging 108.9 ppg and have scored 100+ in 5 straight. 

As good as Oklahoma City has been offensively, Miami has been equally good defensively. The Heat come in allowing just 92.5 ppg. Clearly when this team wants to get it after it on the defensive side of the ball, they can shut teams down. I think it's safe to say that given the talent on OKC and this being a nationally televised home game, we can expect to see max effort defensively from Miami. 

The UNDER is 5-1 in Oklahoma City's 6 games this season against strong defensive teams who are holding opponents to 43% or worse shooting, 6-0 in their 6 games against teams who are called for 21 or fewer fouls/game and 5-1 in their last 6 against teams who average 53 or more rebounds. UNDER is 9-2 in Miami's 11 games this season against teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots, 8-1 in their 9 against strong free throw shooting teams, making 76% or more of their attempts (don't foul often) and 6-2 in their 8 games against teams who average 99+ points/game. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Warriors/Hornets UNDER

The books have been forced to set the totals high in every Warriors game, as Golden State has scored at least 100 points in every game. That might have you thinking the over is the smart play in this one, but I think we could see Golden State's streak of 100+ points come to an end tonight. 

Charlotte knows that they can't afford to get into a shootout with Golden State, especially with them missing one of their top scorers in Al Jefferson. The Hornets are going to do everything in their power to slow this game down and make the Warriors work for everything they get offensively. Charlotte has been locked in defensively in their last 2 games, holding the Cavaliers to 95 and the Bucks to just 82. They come in allowing just 97.1 ppg at home and are catching the Warriors in a good spot, playing their 2nd straight on the road and first trip to the east coast this season. 

UNDER is 28-13 in the Warriors last 41 off a road win and 6-2 in their last 8 against the Eastern Conference. UNDER is also 11-2 in the Hornets last 13 when playing with 2 days of rest, 10-4 in their last 14 home games and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 at home against a team with a winning road record. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Nuggets/Bucks OVER

Both of these teams come into this game off extremely low-scoring games. The Bucks combined for just 169 points in a 82-87 loss at Charlotte and Denver combined for only 173 in a 81-92 loss at Dallas. The key here is that both teams had an awful offensive quarter. Milwaukee scored just 9-points in the 2nd quarter against the Hornets and the Nuggets managed just 5 points in the 3rd quarter against the Mavericks. 

I believe the results have created some great value here as too much attention is being paid to the offenses and not what these two defenses are allowing. Denver is giving up 103.7 ppg and the Bucks are even worse at 105.0 ppg. Prior to their last game, Milwaukee had seen the OVER cash in 8 straight games. I just don't see the defensive intensity being there in this matchup, as the Nuggets are playing their 3rd in 4 nights and the Bucks are in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set. 

OVER is 12-5 in the Nuggets last 17 when playing against a team with a losing record, 7-1 in the Bucks last 8 off a SU loss, 5-2 in their last 7 when playing on no rest and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 after playing 2 straight games as an underdog. Take the OVER! 

3* Celtics/Magic NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on UNDER

I think we are seeing some great value here on the under with this total set over the 200 mark. Orlando has really played well defensively at home, where they are allowing just 94.0 ppg over their last 7. Boston also gets after it on the defensive end, as they are only giving up 96.9 ppg on the season. 

All 4 meetings last year saw a combined score of 201 or less, so these two have a history of low-scoring games. Another key here is that both team are coming in off a day of rest, so they should have plenty of energy to get back in transition.

UNDER is 22-8 in the Celtics last 30 off a blowout win by 30 or more points and 32-17 in the Magic's last 49 after playing 2 straight at home. We also find a strong system in play. The UNDER is 36-13 (74%) since 1996 in games with a total of 200 to 209.5, where you have a team that covered the spread in their last game and playing 6 or more in 10 days. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Hawks/Spurs UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring defensive battle on Saturday between the Hawks and Spurs. Given the scheduling scenario we have here, neither of these teams are going to be looking to push the pace offensively. 

Atlanta is an absolutely brutal spot, playing their 4th game in 5 nights with this being the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set. They also come in off a high-scoring game last night at Memphis in a 116-101 win. The Spurs are also playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in the last 4 days overall. San Antonio has been really playing well defensively. They have held 4 straight opponents to 84 or less points are allowing just 84.9 ppg at home on the season. 

UNDER is 30-18 in the Spurs last 48 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 11-4 in their last 15 when playing on no rest. UNDER is 9-4 in the Hawks last 13 off a win and 4-1 in their last 5 when playing on no rest. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Spurs/Nuggets OVER

We are seeing some great value here with this total, as it's been set too low based on the last 3 games for San Antonio. The Spurs combined for just 174 against Memphis, 182 against Phoenix and 171 against Dallas in their last 3. Key thing there is all 3 came at home, where they have been much better on that side of the ball. San Antonio is giving up 96.9 ppg on the road, compared to 90.5 ppg overall. 

Denver has scored at least 97 in 5 straight and allowed 109 or more in each of their last 4. The Nuggets are giving up 105.3 ppg and surrendered 109 to the Spurs in San Antonio back on 11/18. That game finished with a combined score of 207, which is a good sign we will see a similar type scoring output now that these two teams are playing in Denver. 

Each of the last 4 games in the series has seen a combined score of at least 207. We also see that the OVER is 23-12 in the Nuggets last 35 when revenging a same season loss and 13-3 in their last 16 against strong defensive teams that are allowing a shooting percentage of 43% or worse. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Jazz/Clippers UNDER

The books have set the total too high for this matchup. Utah comes into this game averaging 94.6 ppg and are shooting just 43.1% from the field. Their only hope of winning games is to make them ugly and let their defense do most of the work. The Jazz are giving up just 93.8 ppg against teams who average 100.2. After allowing 100+ in each of their last 2, I look for Utah to come out extremely motivated defensively tonight. 

The Clippers are known for being a high-scoring attack, but are only averaging 103.6 ppg against teams that allow 102.0 ppg. LA put up 111 last night against the Nuggets, but in their two games prior they scored just 91 at Portland and 80 at home against the Raptors. Given the Clippers are playing in the second game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in the last 4 nights overall, this is not a spot where they are going to look to push the tempo. It's also worth noting they have been playing much better defensively of late. They held Toronto to just 91 points and the Nuggets to only 94. 

UNDER is 28-13 in the Clippers last 41 home games against a team with a losing record and 4-0 in their last 4 against the Northwest. UNDER is also 6-0 in Utah's last 6 off a double-digit loss at home and 4-0 in their last 4 against the Western Conference. Take the UNDER! 

3* Knicks/Heat NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on UNDER

Both the Knicks and Heat come into this contest playing some of their best basketball of the early season. New York has won 4 straight and 6 of 8 overall, while Miami has won 5 of their last 6. I look for both teams to come out highly motivated for this game and I expect max effort here on the defensive side of the ball. 

Those that have watched the Heat play, know that this is a strong defensive team. Miami comes in allowing just 92.9 ppg (3rd). Opponents are shooting just 41.1% from the field and 30.8% from long-distance. The key here is we are catching Miami in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, so they won't be looking to push the pace. The Heat are also averaging just 97.7 ppg against teams that give up an average of 100.7. 

The Knicks are also coming into this one with tired legs. While New York had yesterday off, this will be their 3rd road game in the last 4 days. New York is only giving up 979 ppg against teams that average 101.6 ppg and have held their opponents to 95 or less in 6 of their last 8. 

UNDER is 10-1 in Miami's last 11 and 8-3 in New York's last 11. UNDER is 31-19 in Miami's last 50 with a total set at 190 to 199.5 and 7-0 in their last 7 off a SU win. UNDER is also 6-1-1 in Knicks last 8 when playing with 1 day of rest and 15-5-1 in their las t21 against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Celtics/Nets UNDER

We are seeing some great value here with a high total in Sunday's showdown between the Nets and Celtics. These two teams just played Friday in Boston with the Celtics winning 120-95. The total for that game was an identical 204.5 and they eclipsed it by just 10.5 points with Boston shooting a ridiculous 58.6% from the field. 

I look for a much stronger effort from the Nets in the quick rematch. They actually only had one bad stretch against Boston on Friday, where they allowed 43 points in the 2nd quarter. Brooklyn also realizes they can't get into a track meet with the Celtics, so expect them to try and keep the tempo down in this one. 

UNDER is 20-6 in the Nets last 26 after allowing 100+ in 2 straight games and 22-9 in their last 31 off a road loss. UNDER is also 45-19 in Boston's last 64 after leading by 20 or more at the half of their previous game and 23-9 in their last 32 off a 20+ point over a division opponent. Take the UNDER! 

5* Cavs/Pistons NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on OVER 

I look for the Cavaliers and Pistons to have no problem eclipsing the total set for this one. Cleveland comes in averaging 102.8 ppg and are catching the Pistons in a tough spot. Detroit has had just 1-day off after concluding a lengthy 6-game west coast road trip.

The Cavaliers come in on 2 full days of rest and will be able to push the tempo and take advantage of the tired legs of the Pistons. It's also important to note we catch Cleveland coming off a loss, so we know they will be highly motivated to bounce back with a win. 

The key here is I loo for Detroit to keep pace offensively at home. Cleveland has allowed at least 97 points in 4 of their last 5 and Detroit is averaging a respectable 96.6 ppg. It's also worth noting that each of the final 3 meetings between these two teams last year saw a combined score of 195 or more. 

OVER is 19-8 in the Pistons last 27 home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, 26-12 in their last 38 as a home dog and 11-2 in their last 13 home games off a road loss by 10 or more points. OVER is 39-17-1 in Cleveland's las 57 when playing with 2 days of rest and 4-1 in last 5 off a game where they failed to cover. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Situational Total Dominator on Pistons/Lakers UNDER

I'm not expecting much fireworks offensively tonight with the Pistons and Lakers. Detroit has scored 96 or less in each of their last 3 games, while LA has scored 99 or less in 4 straight. With the Pistons having lost 3 straight and the Lakers on a 4-game slide, both should bring some intensity not the defensive end to snap their respective losing streaks.

Key here is that neither of these teams will be looking to push the tempo. Detroit is playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and their 6th and final game of a lengthy 6-game west coast trip. The Lakers had yesterday off, but are returning home from a 5-game road trip. This will be LA's 4th game in 6 nights. 

These two teams also have a history of not lighting up the scoreboard when they face off against each other. The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings. We also see that the UNDER is 10-4 in Pistons last 14 against the Western Conference and 11-4 in their last 15 road games against a team with a losing home record. UNDER is 8-1-1 in Lakers last 10 home games off a road trip of 7 or more days and 4-0 in their last 4 against the Eastern Conference. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Hawks/Celtics OVER

I'm expecting a frantic pace in tonight's game against the Hawks and Celtics. Boston comes in averaging 101.1 ppg on 87 shots per game, while Atlanta is scoring 104.4 ppg on 84 shots. The Hawks have scored at least 101 points in each of their last 5 games and the Celtics are allowing 100.6 ppg at home. 

OVER is 10-1 in the Hawks last 11 after playing 3 straight games at home and the average combined score in these games has been 209.3. OVER is also 15-5 in the Hawks last 20 road games against teams who are shooting 43% or worse from the field and 13-2 in their last 15 road games against teams that average 53 or more rebounds/game. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system. The OVER is 46-12 (79%) over the last 5 seasons in games with two up-tempo teams that average 82 or more shots/game, who both also struggle to rebound the ball (-3 to -5.5 rebounds/game). Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Pistons/Kings UNDER

Each of the last 4 meetings between these two teams has finished UNDER the total and given the circumstances I believe that streak continues tonight. Detroit is one of the most improved teams in the league and will be motivated coming off a loss at Golden State last time out. However, I don't see the Pistons playing at a fast pace. Detroit is playing their 4th straight on the road in their West Coast trip and 3rd in the last 4 nights overall. 

Betting the UNDER with the Kings might not seem like a wise move, given Sacramento is allowing 110.6 ppg and opposing teams are shooting 49.3% from the field. The key here is the Kings held a players only meeting on Tuesday, which I believe is going to result in max effort here defensively, as they try to put an end to a 6-game losing streak on their home floor. 

One thing to keep in mind with Sacramento's poor defensive start, is 6 of their first 8 games have come against some strong offensive teams in the Clippers (twice), Suns, Rockets, Warriors and Spurs. Their 8 opponents as a whole combine to average 103.5 ppg. Detroit is only scoring 99.0 ppg and shooting just 42.7% from the field. 

UNDER is 5-1 in the Kings last 6 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games, 13-4 in the Pistons last 17 road games after playing their previous game as a road dog, 23-10 in their last 33 against the Western Conference and 10-4 in their last 14 road games against a team with a losing home record. 

We also find a strong system in play, as the UNDER is 50-21 (70%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a team that has covered at least 4 of their last 6, playing their 4th road game in 7 days and a total set at 200 or more points. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Raptors/Heat UNDER 

I'm expecting both teams to come out a bit sluggish on offense here and a big reason for that is the energy that I look for both teams to bring to the defensive end. Toronto will be motivated off a 87-92 loss at Orlando on Friday, which was their first loss of the season. Miami will also be looking to bounce back, as they fell 87-90 at Indiana on Friday. 

Both of these teams have really been good on the defensive end this year. The Raptors are allowing just 95.0 ppg against teams that are averaging 101.5 ppg, while the Heat are giving up only 92.8 ppg against teams that are averaging 100.6. A big reason why the UNDER is 4-2 in Toronto's 6 games and 5-1 in Miami's 6 contests. 

UNDER is 34-14 in the Heat's last 48 games against teams scoring 99 or more points/game and 9-1 in their last 10 versus teams that are outrebounding opponents by 3 or more boards per game. UNDER is also 10-2 in Miami's last 12 games played on Sunday. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Magic/Pelicans UNDER

This total has been set too high for this matchup. Both the Magic and Pelicans have started the season 0-3, which is going to have both teams coming out extremely motivated to get their first win of the season. I believe that will lead to max effort here defensively and that should keep this well under the mark given the two offenses that are taking the floor. 

Orlando comes into this game averaging 103.3 ppg, but that's a bit misleading as the only time they scored more than 87 points in a game is their 136-139 double-overtime game against Oklahoma City. They only had 117 in regulation, so if you take out overtime, they are only averaging 97.0 ppg. 

The Pelicans are averaging 103.0 ppg, but they too have really only had one strong offensive outburst, as they scored 95 and 94 in their first two games, before scoring 120 against the Warriors. New Orleans is only shooting 42.7% from the field and Orlando is even worse at 40.2% and also one of the worst 3-point shooting teams at 29.3%. 

In the two meetings between these teams last year, they combined for 185 and 179 points with the highest total being 192.5. Given their current form and the injuries the Pelicans are dealing with, I look for these two to fly under the total set here. 

UNDER is 21-9 in Orlando's last 30 road games with a total greater than 200 over the last 3 seasons, 22-8 in their last 30 road games following 3 or more consecutive losses and 23-7 in their last 30 road games against an opponent from the Western Conference. UNDER is also 8-2 in Pelicans last 10 following a loss and 11-5 in their last 16 vs a team with a winning percentage below 40%. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Mavs/Suns UNDER

The books have set this total too high for this Western Conference matchup. Both the Mavericks and Suns underwent some major changes in the offseason. Dallas doesn't look to be as strong offensively, at least in the early going, while Phoenix looks to be a little stronger defensively. 

Dallas parted ways with Tyson Chandler, Monta Ellis and Richard Jefferson, while bringing in Deron Williams, Wes Matthews, Zaza Pachouli, Samuel Dalembert and Javale McGee. There's definitely going to be some chemistry issues early on, as Williams and Matthews barely played in the preseason and neither is 100% healthy. The Mavericks are also without Chandler Parsons, as he recovers from knee surgery and will miss the playmaking ability of Ellis until these guys get healthy. 

Phoenix added in Chandler from Dallas to help improve their interior defense and he will certainly do that. They still have a strong backcourt of Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight, but the overall depth isn't as strong as it's been. With players not in game shape to start the season, I don't see the Suns exploding offensively here. The Mavericks also figure to slow the pace way down given what they have to work with this season and both teams should play hard defensively in the season opener. 

To close out last season the Suns saw the UNDER go 19-7-1 in their final 27 home games and 19-7 in their last 26 against the Western Conference. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on 76ers/Celtics UNDER

The defensive intensity will be there for both teams in the season opener and there's a little bit more of an edge on that side of the ball in division games. You also have to factor in there's some rust to work off early in the season, as well as players needing to get into game shape. 

Philadelphia could find it extremely difficult to score, as they are missing some key pieces because of injury. The 76ers will be without Tony Wroten, Robert Covington, Carl Landry, Nik Stauskas and Kendall Marshall. There's a good chance this turns into a blowout and that's almost always a good sign for the under.

Boston won't be looking to run up the score with big home game against reigning Atlantic champ Toronto on Friday. The Celtics are also adjusting to a couple new pieces in David Lee and Amir Johnson. This is also a well-coached team that's going to get after it defensively. 

Over the last 3 seasons the UNDER is 41-26 in 76ers games when they are listed as an underdog of 10 or more points. They also closed out last season going UNDER the total in 11 of their last 15 division games. 

We also find a strong system in play. UNDER is 112-60 (65%) since 1996 in games with a total of 190 to 199.5 where you have a marginal losing team from last season that won 40%-49% of their games (Celtics) playing a team who had a losing record. Take the UNDER! 

5* Warriors/Rockets Vegas Insider on Over 213

With the Houston Rockets looking to avoid being swept by the Golden State Warriors on Monday the best value on the board comes on the total. Three straight games have gone under in this series, including Game 3, which went WAY under the number. This has predictably caused the line to be adjusted down significantly for Game 4.

The series started in Golden State with a total of 220 points and has been adjusted all the way down to 214 following some lower scores in Games 2 and 3. Game 3 was a complete fluke with Houston shooting as bad as they possibly could hitting 33.7% from the field. This is a Rockets team that has shot 44.7% from the field and averaged 108 points per game throughout the playoffs.

The Warriors have played pretty good defense throughout the playoffs allowing opponents to shoot 42.7% from the field, but that's a far cry from what we saw the other night in Houston. Offensively Golden State's numbers speak for themselves. Almost no opponent has been able to figure them out. They are averaging just over 109 points per game this season, including almost 107 points per game on the road. With oddsmakers over-adjusting, we'll jump on this total. Take the Over!

5* Cavs/Hawks NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on UNDER

These two teams combined for just 185 points in Game 1 and I just don't see this being a high-scoring series given the form that both of these two are in. Cleveland is playing without Love and Irving is hobbled and potentially might sit this one out. The Hawks are more than likely without Carroll and even if he does play he will be at less than 100%.

The Hawks defense forced the Cavaliers into a lot of isolation sets, which slows their offense way down. Had it not been for J.R. Smith being on fire, Cleveland likely wouldn't have struggled to reach 90 points. Smith is extremely inconsistent and chances are he won't have near the same impact in Game 2.

UNDER is 10-2 in the Hawks last 12 games when revenging a home loss and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 when coming off a home loss. UNDER is also 9-1 in the Cavaliers last 10 after allowing 90 points or less in 2 straight games. These trends combine to form a dynamite 90% (26-3) system. Take the UNDER 197!

5* NBA Playoffs Total of the Month on Hawks/Wizards UNDER

These two teams combined for just 163 points in Game 5 at Atlanta and I look for the strong defensive efforts to carry over to Game 6. Keep in mind that the these two teams only combined for 87 points in the 2nd half of Game 4.

It's not a surprise that the defenses are starting to win over the offenses, as these two teams are now extremely familiar with how far we are into the series. Atlanta's offense hasn't looked right for awhile and the Wizards matchup extremely well. On the flip side of this, I actually think the return of Wall hurts the offensive chemistry that Washington had built up.

UNDER is 12-1 in Atlanta's last 13 playoff games when they have an opportunity to close out the series, giving us a strong 92% system in play tonight. Take the UNDER!

4* Grizzlies/Warriors NBA Vegas Insider on UNDER

Each of the first three games in this series have failed to surpass 188 points, yet the books continue to post a total around 196-198 points. It shouldn't come as a huge surprise that these two teams aren't putting up a ton of points. The Warriors led the league in defensive efficiency and the Grizzlies were 4th.

The home team typically is the one that dictates the tempo and Memphis clearly wants to slow this game down and not let the Warriors get into any sort of rhythm offensively. The Grizzlies are doing an excellent job of defending the 3-point line and a lot of that has to do with the perimeter defense of Conley and Allen.

I'm expecting all out defensive effort here from both teams, as I think both teams are aware that this game could very well decide the series. UNDER is 11-1 in Grizzlies last 12 games off an upset win as an underdog, 23-3 in their last 26 home games and 5-0 in their last 5 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take the UNDER!

4* Warriors/Grizzlies NBA Playoffs No Brainer on UNDER

While the first two games in this series have finished with a final combined score of 187 points, the total hasn't really moved due to the public liking to back the OVER in Golden State games. I just don't see this turning into an offensive shootout.

Memphis is one of the best defensive teams in the league, especially on their home floor. Conley and Allen are more than capable of slowing down Curry and Thompson and that really makes it difficult for the Warriors to get into a rhythm offensively. Golden State is equally as strong defensively and I think they turn their focus to that side of the ball in Game 3 on the road. Memphis is looking to slow the game way down and aren't a great outside shooting team.

UNDER is 15-6 in the Grizzlies last 21 home games after going under the total in their previous game and 9-1 in their last 10 off an upset win as a road underdog. UNDER is also 17-6 in the Warriors last 23 revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite. Take the UNDER!

5* Bulls/Cavs NBA Vegas Insider on UNDER

The most recent matchup between these two teams came towards the end of the regular season (4/5) and there was a decent amount at stake with Cleveland not having safely secured the No. 2 seed. The total posted for that game was an identical 194.5 and the two teams ended up combining for 193.

With how big a series this is and the intensity that comes with the playoffs, I think we are seeing a ton of value on the UNDER. The biggest key here is that Cleveland has lost Kevin Love and J.R. Smith is suspended for the first two games.

Both of those guys do a tremendous job of spacing the defense, not having them on the floor is going to allow the Bulls to collapse inside and take away the driving lanes for James and Irving. In that last contest back in early April, Love had 11 points (3 3-pointers) and Smith had 24 (8 3-pointers).

I think there's a good chance that both teams fail to score more than 90 points. UNDER is 4-0-1 in Bulls last 5 games playing with 3 or more days of rest, 18-6 in their last 24 road games against a team with a winning home record and 20-8 in the Cavs last 28 home games against a team with a winning road record. These trends combine to form a 75% (42-14) system. Take the UNDER!

5* Grizzlies/Warriors  NBA Vegas Insider on UNDER

The last time these two teams faced off in the regular season the total was set at just 196.5 points. That alone shows you the value we are getting here, as the defensive intensity will be taken to a whole different level.

A lot of people think the Warriors are all flash on offense, but that's not the case at all. Golden State led the league in defensive efficiency. Memphis to no surprise also ranked inside the Top 5 in that category.

Grizzlies know they keep up with the Warriors in a shootout and Golden State understands that Memphis has little to no chance of beating them at home if they match the Grizzlies intensity on the defensive side of the ball. Steph Curry backed up this point, saying, "Our defense is going to show up. That's what we're going to bank on for the whole series."

UNDER is 68-24 in games with a total set between 190 and 199.5 points, where you have a well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days (Warriors), on Sunday. That's a 74% long-term system. BET THE UNDER!

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Nets/Hawks UNDER

I believe we are seeing a major overreaction here from the books due to Game 4's high-scoring affair that saw the Hawks/Nets combine for 235 points. Only 208 of those game in regulation, as the two combined for 27 in overtime.

Each of the first 3 games in the series finished with 191 or less, including a mere 174 in Game 3. Defense has the edge as these series progress, which is why I'm not expecting to see a repeat of the strong shooting percentages from Game 4, where Atlanta hit 48.4% from the field and Brooklyn 47.9%. Keep in mind that even with both teams red-hot, they only went over the posted total for Game 5 by a mere 8-points in regulation.

UNDER is 12-2 in the Nets last 14 after a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots and 12-3 in their last 15 as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points. UNDER is also 4-1 in Atlanta's last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record and 4-1 in their last 5 following a game where they failed to cover. These trends add up to form a strong 82% (32-7) system. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on Mavs/Rockets UNDER

While 3 of the first 4 games in the series have seen at least 126 combined points scored, I believe there's simply too much value here with tonight's total. Keep in mind that the first game in the series had a total of just 213 points, so there's some big time inflation going on with the total here eclipsing 220.

Houston's defense was non-existent in the last two games, but they were a lot better on that side of the ball at home in the first two games of the series. With a chance to close out the series and get some rest before taking on either the Clippers or Spurs, I look for the Rockets to really get after it on that side of the ball at home. As good as they are offensively, they don't want to get in a shootout with Dallas.

UNDER is 7-2 in Mavericks last 9 road games against a team with a winning home record and 13-6 in their last 19 after a game where they covered the spread. UNDER is also 33-17 in Dallas' last 50 road games after 2 straight games where they shot 50% or better from the field. These trends combine to form a strong 68% (53-25) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Total Top Play on Mavs/Rockets UNDER

These two teams combined for 226 points in Game 1, easily surpassing the total of 213. That high-scoring affair has forced the books to raise the total by 2.5-points and thus creating some great value on the UNDER.

The defensive intensity is at a different level in the playoffs and it gets turned up a notch after the first game of the series. Dallas tried to focus all their attention on Harden in Game 1 and it backfired with the other guys stepping up. Head coach Rick Carlisle is one of the best ad making adjustments in the playoffs and I look for the Mavericks to do a much better job defensively in Game 2.

It's important to note that these two teams played 4 times during the regular season and all 4 of those meetings finished with fewer than 211 points. One of things that gets overlooked is how good defensively the Rockets were given their pace. Houston ranked 6th in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season.

UNDER is 12-4 in Mavericks last 16 when playing with double-revenge against an opponent and 13-5 in the Rockets last 18 when facing a team that's won 60% to 70% of their games. Adding to this is a strong system. UNDER is 30-8 over the last 5 seasons when you have a team off 2 or more consecutive overs (HOU) against an opponent off 6 or more consecutive overs (DAL). That's a 79% system. Take the UNDER!

5* Bucks/Bulls NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on UNDER

It looked like Game 1 was going to fly over the total of 186 after the Milwaukee and Chicago combined for 111 points in the 1st half. Instead they just barely finished over the mark at 194. The Bucks managed just 40 points in the 2nd half and the Bulls scored just 43.

I believe that's more of the type of offensive output that we can expect to see going forward. Chicago's defense has really came on strong down the stretch and the Bucks just don't have any real dynamic offensive players.

The Bulls have held the Bucks to just 85.3 ppg over the last 8 meetings and aren't going to take their foot off the gas. Chicago needs to finish this series quickly and make sure they are 100% going into their much anticipated round 2 showdown against the Cavs.

UNDER is 6-1 in the Bucks last 7 following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 19-8 in their last 27 road games when revenging a road loss. UNDER is also 20-9 in the Bulls last 29 off a home by 10+ points and 11-2 in their last 13 after scoring 60+ in the first half of their previous game. These trends combine to form a strong 74% (56-20) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Blazers/Grizzlies NBA No Brainer on UNDER

Each of the last two meetings between these two teams resulted in low-scoring games. They combined for just 190 points at Portland on 2/22 and a mere 183 at Memphis on 3/21. Given the intensity of the playoffs and the fact that both of these two teams ranked inside the Top 10 in defensive efficiency for the season, I look for this one to stay well below the mark.

UNDER is 23-4 in Memphis' last 27 home games, 20-5-1 in their last 26 off a SU win and 7-1-1 in their last 9 games played on Sunday. UNDER is also 5-1 in Blazers last 6 when playing with 3 or more days of rest and 25-8 in their last 33 road games when revenging 4 or more straight losses to an opponent. These trends combine to form a strong 81% (80-19) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Pacers/Thunder UNDER

With both Oklahoma City and Indiana fighting for their playoff lives right now and both teams fresh off a days rest, I'm expecting both to lay it all on the line defensively in this one. The Pacers are currently 9th in the east, but are just 1-game back of both Boston and Brooklyn. The Thunder are in tie for 8th with the Pelicans, but technically 9th as they lose the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Indiana allowed 103 in their last game against Detroit, but prior to that had held each of their previous 3 opponents under 90 points. While Oklahoma City's defense hasn't been great of late, the Pacers are only averaging 97.3 ppg on the season.

These two teams combined for just 197 in the previous meeting this season in Oklahoma City and the last time they played in Indiana the two combined for just 199. UNDER is 29-14 in the Thunders last 43 after allowing 100+ in 4 straight games and 35-19 in the Pacers last 54 after allowing a shooting percentage of 42% or less in each of their last 5 games. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Total Annihilator on Knicks/Magic UNDER

While the Knicks come in averaging just 91.8 ppg and the Magic are averaging just 96.0 ppg, these are also two bad defensive teams. New York allows 101.3 ppg (103.3 on the road) and Orlando gives up 101.7 ppg (102.8 at home).

The key thing here is that there's absolutely no reason for either of these teams to be excited about this game. Both are more interested in making plans for the offseason at this point and I'm expecting zero defense to be played, creating some nice value on the total.

OVER is 13-3-1 in the Knicks last 17 versus a team with a losing record and 10-1 in the Magic's last 11 against a team with a losing record. These two trends combine to form a strong 85% (23-4) system. Take the OVER!

5* Southeast Division Game of the Month on Hornets/Heat UNDER

Miami is tied with Indiana at 34-43, which has them 1-game back of the Celtics for the 8th and final spot in the Easter Conference. Charlotte is right behind both of those teams at 33-43, just 1.5-games out of the playoffs. With just 5-games left on the schedule, both teams desperately need a win here.

I believe it's going to a lead to a low-scoring game, as both of these teams rely a lot on their defensive. The Heat are allowing just 97.2 ppg and Charlotte is giving up 97.0 ppg, while both teams average less than 95 ppg offensively. All 3 of the previous matchups this season have seen a combined score of 187 or less, including a mere 154 in the most recent matchup.

UNDER is 0-9 this season when Charlotte is playing with 2 days rest and 2-12 in the Heat's last 14 when playing against a marginal losing team (40% to 49%). These two trends combine to form a dynamite 91% (21-2) system. Take the UNDER!

3* Blazers/Nets NBA Total No Brainer on UNDER

This is a rescheduled game from Jan. 26 and as a result it's got both teams playing here with limited rest. Portland will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and while they had yesterday off, this is a long way to travel for just 1-game. Brooklyn will also be playing their 3rd game in 4 days, but it's also their 5th in the last 7 days.

I just don't see either team being all that efficient offensively, especially when you factor in the intensity that both teams figure to be playing with. Portland has at least the No. 4 seed locked up in the west, but that doesn't guarantee home court advantage in the first round, something this team desperately wants and needs. They are actually 1-game back of 5th place Los Angeles and 1/2-game back of 6th place San Antonio. Brooklyn on the other hand has just a 1/2 game lead over 8th place Boston and is just 2 in front of 11th place Charlotte.

UNDER is 13-5 in the Nets 18 games this season when playing against a team that's won between 60% to 70% of their games and 13-5 in their last 18 after allowing 100+ points in each of their last two games. UNDER is also 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. These trends combine to form a strong 72% (31-12) system. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Total No Brainer on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER

Only once in the last 8 meetings between these two teams have they combined for more than 200 points. All 3 meetings this season have seen 194 or fewer points. In the lone meeting in Memphis, the two combined for a mere 159 points.

The big reason we are seeing such a high total here is due to the Thunder coming off a game against Dallas where the two teams combined for a staggering 266 points. I just don't see that kind of game here. Memphis is a dominant defensive team and rarely give up a big number on their home floor. At the same time, the Grizzlies are not a good offensive team and like to play at a slow pace.

Couple extra factors here that I believe favor a low-scoring game. Memphis has fallen a .5-game back of the Rockets for the No. 2 spot in the west. Getting out of No. 3 and back into No. 2 is crucial, as the No. 3 seed will likely have to open with either the Spurs or Clippers in the first round. Oklahoma City became the first team since 1995 to have 3 players score 30+ points in a losing effort in that loss to Dallas and have their defensive to blame. I'm expecting max effort on that side of the ball. Thunder are also just 1.5-games ahead of surging New Orleans for the 8th and final playoff spot.

UNDER is 14-1 in Memphis' last 15 games after covering as a double-digit favorite, 20-6 in their last 26 home games and 13-3 in their last 16 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. UNDER is also 6-1 in Thunder's last 7 after allowing 125+ and 17-7 in their last 24 after making 12 or more 3-point shots. These trends combine to form a 80% (70-18) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Total Annihilator on Raptors/Nets OVER

The Nets are playing some of their best basketball of the season, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Brooklyn has scored 100+ in 4 straight games and are averaging 107.3 ppg over their last 8. Toronto has been an offensive juggernaut all season, as the Raptors rank 4th in the league at 104.2 ppg. Of importance here is that their offense has been even better on the road, where they are averaging 105.9 ppg.

While the Nets have found their mojo offensively, they are still struggling to get it done on the defensive side of the ball. Brooklyn comes in allowing 100.6 ppg on the season and are giving 108.0 ppg over their last 5 at home. Toronto on the other hand has really struggled defensively on the road. The Raptors are allowing 104.3 ppg away from home and allowing teams to shoot 47% from the field. The fewest points Toronto has allowed on the road in their last 12 is 98.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. The OVER is 24-3 since 1996 in games where you have a total set at 200 or more points, where the home team has won 8 or more of their last 10 games, yet are only winning between 40% to 49% of their games on the season. That's a 89% system. Take the OVER!

5* Heat/Cavs TNT Total of the Month on UNDER

The Cavaliers sit comfortably in 2nd in the east, 8 games back of Atlanta and 3 ahead of the Raptors and Bulls with just 7 games to play, but I don't see them taking their foot off the gas until they have secured the No. 2 spot. This also isn't just another opponent for Cleveland, as LeBron James will be going up against his former team in Miami, who the Cavaliers have lost twice to by double-digits, including the most recent meeting 92-106 in Miami on 3/16.

Anytime you play the Cavaliers it means something more, but the Heat are also in playoff mode. Miami holds the 7th spot in the east, thanks to a tie-breaker over Brooklyn, but are just a 1/2 game ahead of 9th place Boston and 2 in front of 10th place Charlotte. Needless to say this game means a lot to the Heat.

With the importance of this matchup for both teams, combined with the fact that we have two strong defensive teams playing in a nationally televised game on TNT, I'm expecting this one to go under the total set of 199. Miami is giving up just 95.6 ppg and the Cavs are allowing only 95.8 ppg.

UNDER is 10-2 in the Heat's last 12 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 21-6 in their last 27 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 8-3 in their last 11 following a double-digit loss at home. UNDER is also 5-1 in Cavs' last 6 home games, 23-10 in their last 33 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and 11-3-1 in their last 15 versus a team with a losing record. These trends combine to form a strong 76% (78-25) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Total of the Month on 76ers/Lakers OVER

I'm not expecting a whole lot of defense to be played in tonight's matchup between two of the worst teams in the league. These two teams did combine for just 188 points on 3/22, but that was with the 76ers shooting a mere 36.0% from the field.

It was the Lakers best defensive effort since December of 2013, which has me confident that it's not going to repeat itself, especially considering LA will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set and their 5th straight on the road overall.

OVER is 6-1 in the Lakers last 7 games after their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day and 22-11 in their last 33 when they come in having lost 12 or more of their last 15. OVER is also 42-27 in the 76ers last 69 home games after going under the total in their last game and 7-3 in their last 10 against an opponent that allowed 100+ in their last game. These trends combine to form a strong 65% (77-42) system. Take the OVER!

5* Non-Conference Total of the Month on Clippers/Celtics UNDER

The books have set the mark too high for Sunday's showdown between the Clippers and Celtics. Boston has held each of their last 3 opponents to 93 points or less, while LA has held each of their last 4 under the century mark. These two teams combined for just 195 points in their previous meeting this season and I'm expecting a similar combined score in the rematch.

Another big key here to this one going under the mark is that both of these teams are fighting for playoff spots. The Clippers are a 1/2 game back of the Blazers for the No.4  spot and home court in the first round, while Boston is just a 1/2 game ahead of Brooklyn and 1 in front of both Indiana and Charlotte for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.

Adding to this is a strong system. UNDER is 55-23 over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 200 to 209.5 where the home team is revenging a loss against an opponent that is coming in off a road win by 10+ points. That's a 71% system. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Early Bird Total Dominator on Rockets/Wizards UNDER

These early start times that come with the Sunday slate have a strong tendency to go under the total and I think we are getting plenty of value here. Both of these teams are fighting for home court in the playoffs, which is going to add to the defensive intensity. Washington is only allowing 96.5 ppg at home and are scoring just 94.4 ppg over their last 5.

These two teams combined for 207 points in the previous meeting this season and that was with both teams shooting over 46% from the field. I look for both teams to have a much harder time from the field in the rematch.

UNDER is 30-19 in the Rockets last 49 when the total is set at 200 or more points, 15-5 in the Wizards last 20 after a win by 3 points or less and 14-4 in Washington's last 18 after a combined score of 205+ in their last game. These trends combine to form a 68% (59-28) system. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Cavs/Grizzlies UNDER

The books have set the mark too high in what I feel is going to be an offensive struggle for both teams. The Grizzlies are back to playing their brand of basketball and have been putting on a defensive clinic at home of late, allowing a mere 84.7 ppg over their last 10 home games.

Adding to that is the fact that not once during this stretch did Memphis eclipse the 100-point mark offensively. Cleveland held the Grizzlies to just 91 points in the previous meeting this season and are much better defensive team now than they were in December.

UNDER is 5-0 in Grizzlies last 5 after scoring 100+ points in their last game, 4-0 in their last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record and 8-0 in their last 8 after a cover as a double digit favorite in their last game. These trends combine to form a perfect 100% (17-0) system. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Heat/Bucks UNDER

I'm expecting both of these teams to come out with a lot of energy here defensively. The Bucks are only giving up just 96.6 ppg at home and will be motivated here to snap a 6-game losing streak that has them 3.5-games ahead of 9th place Charlotte. Miami is only 2-games in front of the Hornets so they too will be motivated to get a win. The Heat will also be playing with triple-revenge, as they have lost all 3 previous meetings against Milwaukee this season.

One of the keys here is that the Heat are averaging just 92.6 ppg on the road and managed just 75 points in their last game at Oklahoma City. Milwaukee has scored 90 or fewer in 3 of their last 5 overall and Miami is only giving up 96.6 ppg on the road.

UNDER is 11-3 in the Heat's last 14 road games off a loss by 10+ points and 10-1 this season when playing against a marginal losing team that's won between 40% to 49% of their games. UNDER is also 7-2 in the Bucks last 9 after allowing 100+ points in their last game and 13-3 in their last 16 after 2 straight games with 10 or more steals. These trends combine to form a strong 82% (41-9) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Total Annihilator on Heat/Thunder UNDER

The books have set the bar too high for this one. The Thunder have scored 100+ points in 22-straight games, but will be going up against a tough Miami defense without several key pieces of their offense. Durant, Ibaka, Collison are all out with injuries and Kanter is questionable to play with an ankle injury. Miami on the other hand continues to play without Chris Bosh. Another big factor here is the early start time on Sunday, which has historically led to lower-scoring games. These two teams also combined for just 180 points in the first meeting back on Jan. 20.

UNDER is 11-3 in the Heat's last 14 non-conference road games and 10-2 in their last 12 games played on Sunday. UNDER is also 19-10 in Thunder's last 29 when playing against a team with a losing record and a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 home games after finishing over the total in each of their last 4 games. These trends combine to form a 76% (48-15) system. Take the UNDER!

3* Hawks/Warriors Late Night Total Annihilator on UNDER

These two teams combined for 240 points in Atlanta in their previous meeting this season, but there's not near the hype the second time around and both teams will be playing without two of their most important plays.

Golden State won't have Klay Thompson and the Hawks will be without Kyle Korver. These are two of the best shooters in the game, that really make it difficult on opposing defenses with how much attention they have to pay to them. Not having them on the floor is going to make life much easier for both defenses, which I believe will have this one finishing well below the mark. You also have to factor in that both teams have a better understanding of what the other likes to do offensively after already facing each other.

UNDER is 6-2 in the Hawks last 8 road games and 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. UNDER is also 5-2 in the Warriors last 7 home games and 4-1 in their last 5 at home against a team with a winning road record. Take the UNDER!

5* Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Magic/Cavs UNDER 201.5

The books have set the mark too high for this one, which isn't a big surprise given that the Cavaliers come in off a game against the Spurs where the two teams combined for 253 points. Prior to that Cleveland had held Dallas to 94 points and the Suns to just 79 in their last two games. Orlando isn't a great defensive team, but have been playing much better on that side of the ball since making a coaching change. The Magic have held 12 of their 15 opponents under the century mark. It's also worth noting that each of the two previous meetings this season have seen 187 and 180 points. 

UNDER is 14-5 in the Cavaliers last 19 after allowing 105+ points in their last game, 8-1 in their last 9 off a win by 6 points or less and 13-4 in their last 17 games played on Sunday.  These trends combine to form a strong 78% (35-10) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Nets/76ers OVER

I'm expecting these two teams to fly over the total tonight. Brooklyn has allowed 100+ in three straight and 5 of their last 6. The only exception being a home game against a Utah team that is playing extremely well on the defensive end. The 76ers were able to snap out of their recent shooting funk with 114 points on 47% shooting in a home win over the Kings last time out and I look for that to carry over to this one. The other big key here is that the 76ers are not a strong defensive team and will gladly let this game turn into a shootout. 

OVER is 22-9 in the 76ers last 31 home games after playing two straight as a home dog, 5-0 in their last 5 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 13-4 in their last 17 home games versus teams who are called for 21 or fewer fouls per game. OVER is also 4-1 in the Nets last 5 when facing an opponent who allowed 100 or more points in their last game. These trends combine to form a strong 76% (44-14) system. Take the OVER!

5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Hornets/Pistons UNDER

These two teams combined for just 184 points in their only other meeting this season and I'm expecting a similar low-scoring affair in this one. Charlotte has scored 100+ in 3 straight games and are simply not built to sustain that kind of offensive success, but in the short term it has created some great value here. The Hornets are only averaging 95.0 ppg and are a team built on their effort defensively.

Charlotte has held 5 of their last 7 opponents to 94 points or less, while the Pistons have scored 95 or fewer in 4 of their last 5. While Detroit hasn't been playing great defensively of late, they hold New Orleans to just 88 points two games ago and figure to be highly motivated to snap a 5-game losing streak.

UNDER is 14-4 in the Hornets last 18 after scoring 100+ in 2 or more consecutive games, 7-2 in their last 9 road games and 8-1 in their last 9 when coming in having won 5 or 6 of their last 7. UNDER is also 12-3 in the Pistons last 15 games after allowing 100+, 6-1 in their last 7 following a SU loss and 4-0 in their last 4 at home after a road trip of 7 or more days. These trends combine to form a 82% (51-11) system. Take the UNDER!

3* Bulls/Spurs NBA Total Annihilator on UNDER

Great situation here to back the under, as we have a nationally televised game with an early start time between two fundamentally sound defensive teams. With the injuries the Bulls are dealing with, their only hope of staying competitive is to give max effort defensively. While the Spurs are averaging 110 over their last 4, it's come against some bad defensive teams in the Kings (twice), Suns and Nuggets.

The Bulls have held the Spurs to fewer than 90 points twice in the last 3 meetings and it would come as a surprise if Chicago was able to top 90 points given their current form. San Antonio is only allowing 95.4 ppg over their last 5.

UNDER is 20-9 in the Bulls 29 road games this season and 12-3 when listed as a road dog. UNDER is also 14-6 in the Spurs last 20 non-conference games, 23-8 in their last 31 home games after scoring 120 or more in their last contest, 7-2 in their last 9 on Sunday and 12-3 in their last 15 following an ATS loss. These trends combine to form a 74% (88-31) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Total Annihilator on Bulls/Pacers UNDER

Both of these teams come into this contest off a strong offensive performance. The Bulls scored 108 last night against the Thunder, while the Pacers put up 105 against the Knicks. That's going to have to public looking to back the over with this low total, but the real value here is with the under.

These two division rivals have a history of playing low-scoring games. Each of the last 4 meetings have seen a combined score of 189 or less. With the Bulls playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and without the services of Rose, Butler or Gibson, it's highly unlikely Chicago will flirt with 100 points in back-to-back nights. The important thing here is the Bulls will bring the intensity defensively and Indiana is far from a strong offensive team and are averaging just 90.2 ppg in their last 5 against Chicago.

UNDER is 15-4 in the Bulls last 19 road games after two or more consecutive wins, 8-1 in their last 9 road games after winning at least 4 of their last 7 and 11-3 on the season when listed as a road underdog. UNDER is also 20-9 in the Pacers last 29 off 3 or more consecutive wins and a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 home games after winning 3 of their previous 4. These trends combine to form a 78% (62-17) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Thunder/Bulls TNT Total Annihilator on UNDER

The Thunder are averaging 112.2 ppg over their last 5 and seen each of their last 4 finish over the total. Their recent offensive surge along with this being a nationally televised game on TNT, has the total inflated. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Chicago and 5-1 in the last 6 overall.

Chicago is without three of their better offensive players in Rose, Butler and Gibson and have no choice but to turn their focus to the defensive end of the floor to remain competitive. The Bulls are only averaging 90.4 ppg and allowing 89.2 ppg over their last 5. Big key here is the Thunder won't be looking to push the tempo after playing a grueling overtime game at Philadelphia last night. Adding to that is the fact that this will be Oklahoma City's 3rd game in 4 days and 5th in the last 8 days overall. Plus, Chicago comes in off 2-days rest, so we can expect max energy defensively here.

UNDER is 31-14 in the Bulls last 45 off a home win, 14-4 in their 18 after playing two straight games as an underdog, 7-1 in their last 8 against a team with a winning record and 6-1 in their last 7 against the Western Conference. UNDER is also 4-1 in the Thunder's last 5 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 15-4 in their last 19 after a combined score of 205+ in 4 or more straight games. These trends combine to form a 75% (77-25) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Rockets/Hawks UNDER

These two teams combined for just 203 points in the Hawks 104-97 win at Houston in their previous meeting this season. That contest had a total of just 197 points and now we find the total sitting even higher with the Rockets playing without potential MVP James Harden, who had 18 points and 14 assists in that earlier defeat.

This will be Houston's first game this season without Harden and not having him on the floor is going to have their offense struggling to get going. It also wouldn't come as a big surprise with Harden suspended for just 1-game if the rest of the Rockets players didn't take this game all that seriously.

A lot is made of the Hawks efficiency offensively, which covers up the fact that this is a very good defensive team that is only allowing 95.1 ppg at home. It's also worth noting that Atlanta has scored 100+ just once in their last 6 games and have not had a game finish with a combined score of 200 or more since Feb. 9.

UNDER is 24-15 in the Rockets last 39 games with a total set at 200 or more points and 39-19 in their last 58 road games when they come in having scored 100+ in 4 straight games. UNDER is also 15-4 in Houston's last 19 in the 2nd half against teams who are outscoring opponents by 6+ points/game and 20-8 in the Hawks last 28 home games in the 2nd half against teams with a winning record.

Adding to this is a strong system. UNDER is 70-28 since 1996 in games where you have a team off a road win against a division rival (Hawks) against an opponent off a close home win by 3 points or less (Rockets). That's a 71% system in play tonight. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Total No Brainer on Raptors/76ers UNDER

The books have completely missed the mark in this one. Each of the last two meetings between these two teams have seen a combined score of 184 or less, including a mere 177 points in the most recent meeting at Philadelphia.

I'm expecting a similar low-scoring affair tonight, as we have a highly motivated Toronto team that is looking to snap a 5-game losing streak and a Philadelphia team that is averaging just 86.9 ppg in division matchups and will be without their leading scorer Robert Covington.

UNDER is 10-0 in the 76ers last 10 off a blowout loss by 20+ points, 21-9 in Philadelphia's last 30 after playing their last previous game as a road underdog, 20-6 in their last 26 when revenging a same season loss and 8-3 in the Raptors last 11 off a SU loss. These trends combine to form a 77% (59-18) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Pelicans/Nuggets NBA Total Annihilator on UNDER

This is way to many points for this matchup. The Pelicans are still without Davis and Anderson and are averaging just 96.5 ppg on the road for the season. The Nuggets on the other hand are a complete mess offensively right now. Denver hasn't scored 100 points in 5 straight and have failed to surpass 82 points in 3 of their last 5. Adding to this is the fact that the last time these two teams met, they combined for a mere 178 points.

UNDER is 12-3 in the Nuggets last 15 off a blowout loss by 20+ points, 21-6 in their last 27 against teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game and 10-1 in their last 11 in the 2nd half of the season versus teams who average 7 or less steals per game. UNDER is also 6-2 in the Pelicans last 8 road games, 7-2 in their last 9 against at team that's won less than 40% of their games and 7-1 in their last 8 against an opponent who allowed 100+ points in their last contest. These trends add up to form a 81% (63-15) system. Take the UNDER!

3* Hornets/Magic NBA Total Dominator on UNDER

This game has a defensive battle written all over it, as neither of these teams are capable of a whole lot offensively. The Hornets come in averaging a mere 91.6 ppg over their last 5, while the Magic are scoring just 93.0 ppg over their last 5. These two division rivals are very familiar with one another and this will be their 4th meeting this season, which adds to the value here.

UNDER is 13-4 in the Hornets last 17 games overall, 6-1 in their last 7 road games and 5-1 in their last 6 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. UNDER is 7-1 in the Magic's last 8 overall, 6-1 in their last 7 home games and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. These trends combine to form a 84% (41-8) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Spurs/Suns NBA Total Annihilator on UNDER

I'm expecting a much lower scoring game than the total that's been set for this matchup. Each of the previous two meetings between these two teams this season have seen 195 or less combined points and the last time they played in Phoenix they combined for just 183.

The big key here is that both of these teams are coming in on little rest. The Spurs will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in the last 4 days. The Suns also are playing 3 in 4 and 6 in the last 9 days. Neither team is going to be looking to push the pace in this one and both teams are going to be highly motivated defensively with just 4.5-games separating the two in the standings.

UNDER is 11-2 in the Spurs last 13 road games after going over the total in their last contest, 21-9 in the Suns last 30 games in the 2nd half against teams that are called for 21 or fewer fouls, 4-0 in San Antonio's last 4 when playing on 0 days rest and 6-2 in Phoenix's last 8 games against a team that's won 60% or more of their games. These trends combine to form a 75% (38-13) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Thunder/Blazers NBA Total Annihilator on Thunder/Blazers UNDER

I believe we are getting some great value here on the UNDER, as the books have inflated the total in this one due both teams coming off high-scoring games and due to the fact that this will be a nationally televised game on ESPN.

The key here is that these two teams have a history of finishing below the mark. In fact, the UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings overall and 4-1 in the last 5 played in Portland. Another key factor is that we have the Thunder playing without Durant and coming in off an overtime game last night against the Suns. This will also be Oklahoma City's 5th game in the last 7 days overall. The Thunder simply aren't going to be able to play at a fast pace. It's also worth noting that the Blazers have held each of their last 5 opponents to 98 or fewer points and are only averaging 93.0 ppg over their last 3.

UNDER is 14-2 in the Trail Blazers last 16 home games with a total greater than 200, 12-4 in their last 16 home games after playing two straight games as a favorite and 8-2 in their last 10 after scoring 100+ in their last game. UNDER is also 22-8-2 in Oklahoma City's last 32 against a team with a winning record, 4-0 in their last 4 versus a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 4-1 in their last 5 following a SU loss. These trends combine to form a 79% (64-17) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Total No Brainer on Cavaliers/Pacers UNDER

These two teams met earlier this month in Indiana and the Pacers came away with a surprising 103-99 home win, which is one of just two losses the Cavaliers have suffered over their last 20 games. While that last meeting finished above the mark set for this one, I look for a much lower scoring game in the rematch.

Indiana is going to be motivated against James, while Cleveland will be motivated with revenge. That's not the only key factor favoring a low-scoring game. The Cavaliers will be without starting point guard Kyrie Irving and aren't going to be looking to push the pace in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. Keep in mind that the Pacers are allowing just 96.4 ppg at home and Cleveland is giving up a mere 94.2 ppg over their last 5.

UNDER is 9-2 in the Cavaliers last 11 road games against a team with a losing home record, 21-5 in their last 26 against an opponent who allowed 100 or more in their last game and 10-3 in their last 13 following a SU win. UNDER is also 7-3 in the Pacers last 10 home games against a team with a winning road record and 12-3 in their last 15 home games against teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers/game. These trends combine to form a 79% (59-16) system. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Total Dominator on Raptors/Mavericks UNDER

The books have set the mark too high in this one, as I don't see this game reaching 200 points. While these are two of the highest scoring teams in the NBA on the season, Toronto is averaging just 92.0 ppg over their last 5 and the Mavericks are putting up just 95.4 ppg over their last 5. It's also important to note that both teams have also been limiting opponents on the defensive end. The Raptors are allowing just 90.6 ppg over their last 5 and Dallas is giving up just 96.4.

Dallas is still trying to get use to playing with Rondo and are also adjusting to a new rotation with the addition of Amar'e Stoudemire. It's going to take some time before they get going offensively. This will be the Mavericks 4th game in the last 6 days and the Raptors 4th in the last 5. Neither team figures to be playing at a fast pace due to the lack of rest, which also adds some great value to this one going below the mark.

UNDER is 8-1 in the Mavericks last 9 home games after going under the total in 2 or more consecutive games, 7-0 in their last 7 against the Eastern Conference and 5-0-1 in their last 6 at home against a team that's won 60% or more of their road games. UNDER is also 9-1 in the Raptors last 10 after a close loss by 3 points or less and 13-4 in their last 17 against teams outscoring opponents by 3+ points/game. These trends combine to form a 88% (42-6) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Eastern Conference Total Annihilator on Bulls/Bucks UNDER

I'm expecting a low scoring affair tonight between these two Central Division rivals. Both teams come in playing well and there's just 3.5-game separating the two. Chicago has won 5 of 6, while the Bucks have taken 9 of their last 11.

Not only am I expecting both teams to bring the defensive intensity, but the Bucks current form adds some value here to this one. Milwaukee was active at the trade deadline, trading away Brandon Knight, while acquiring Michael Carter-Williams, Tyler Ennis and Miles Plumlee. Carter-Williams hasn't played in either of the Bucks first two games since the break and is doubtful tonight. Milwaukee also hasn't any time to practice and form some chemistry, as they get ready to play the second of a back-to-back set and 3rd in 4 overall.

Each of the Bucks first two games since the break have been extremely low-scoring largely due to this. They combined for just 170 points in a 89-81 win over the Nuggets on Friday and just 183 in yesterday's 86-97 loss to Atlanta. Adding to this is the fact that each of the first two meetings this season have combined for 182 or less.

UNDER is 15-5 in the Bucks last 20 off 2 or more consecutive games that finished under the total, 9-1 in their last 10 when their opponent scores 100 or more in their last game, 8-1 in their last 9 against at team that's won 60% or more of their games and 4-1 in their last 5 when playing on no rest. UNDER is also 21-12 in the Bulls last 33 with a total of 190 to 199.5 and 32-16 when playing 4 or less games in 10 days. These trends combine to form a 71% (89-36) system. Take the UNDER!

5* Western Conference Total of the Month on Grizzlies/Blazers UNDER

The books have set the mark too high in this one. Memphis will be playing their first game since the All-Star break and will be looking to start off strong after going into the break with an embarrassing 89-105 loss at Oklahoma City. The Trail Blazers are also going to be motivated here after an ugly 76-92 loss at Utah in their first game back from the break.

Portland is a strong offensive team, but will take some time to adjust to the additions of Alonzo Gee and Arron Afflalo. I look for the Trail Blazers to struggle to get going offensively here against one of the best defensive teams in the league. Portland is better defensively than people give them credit for, especially at home where they are allowing just 93.1 ppg.

UNDER is 19-9 in Portland's 28 home games this season, 22-10 in their last 32 home games after failing to cover the spread last time out and 27-12 in their last 39 off an upset loss by 10+ points.

Adding to this is a strong system. UNDER is 63-23 over the last 5 seasons on Sunday when you have a total of 190 to 199.5, with a team playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. That's a 73% long-term system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Early Bird Over/Under Total Annihilator on Cavs/Knicks UNDER

The books have set the mark too high for this early matchup on Sunday between the Knicks and Cavaliers. Cleveland returned from the All-Star break with a blowout 127-89 win at Washington on ESPN and I just don't see them being 100% invested in this one. New York is one of the worst teams in the league and the Cavaliers know they can show up for half this game and come away with a win.

While Cleveland is just going through the motions, I expect the Knicks to come out with a lot of energy at home against LeBron James and company. New York not only is one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA (92.4 ppg), they are 28th in the league in pace (92.9). The Knicks know they have know chance if this turns into a shootout, which will have them trying to limit the number of possessions in this game.

UNDER is 12-3 in the Cavaliers last 15 games played on Sunday, 22-3 in their last 25 after 5 or more consecutive games that finished over the total and 7-1 in their last 8 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. UNDER is also 15-6 in the Knicks last 21 home games and 5-1 in their last 6 off a SU loss by more than 10 points. These trends combine to form a dynamite 81% (61-14) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA No Limit Total Top Play on Magic/Wizards UNDER

I believe the books have set the total too high for tonight's matchup between the Wizards and Magic. Washington is coming of a 114-77 home win over the Nets, where they held Brooklyn to just 33.8% shooting. The Wizards had lost their previous 5, so I'm not expecting them to relax at all and I look for the energy to be there again defensively at home.

Orlando on the other hand has been a much stronger defensive team since they fired head coach Jacque Vaughn. The Magic held the Lakers to just 97-points in their first game without Vaughn and held Chicago to 98 yesterday. Prior to these two games, Orlando had allowed 100+ in 14 straight games.

Adding to this is the fact that these two teams have a history of playing low-scoring games. Each of the last have seen a combined score of 191 or less and the Wizards are holding the Magic to just 91.5 ppg over the last 4.

UNDER is 18-7-1 in Orlando's last 26 road games versus a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 14-6-1 in their last 21 when playing on 0 days rest. UNDER is also 4-1 in Washington's last 5 games following a SU win, 4-1 in their last 5 at home against a team with a lsing record and 19-7-1 in their last 27 when playing on 1 days rest. These trends add up to form a 73% (59-22) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Total Annihilator on Bulls/Magic UNDER

These two teams combined for 235 points at Chicago back on Jan. 12 and I believe it has forced the books to overreact and set this total a lot higher than what it should be. Keep in mind that the total in the previous contest was just 190.

Chicago is coming in off an impressive 107-72 win at New Orleans last night, snapping their 3-game losing streak. While the Bulls will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, Jimmy Butler was the only player to play more than 30 minutes (34). Chicago has some revenge on their minds against the Magic and I look for them to come out motivated defensively in this one. 

Orlando rallied to beat the Lakers 103-97 in their first game after firing their head coach and held LA to a mere 40.2% shooting. It was the first time in 13 games that the Magic held an opponent under 45%. I look for them to come out with another strong defensive effort in this one.

UNDER is 32-17 over the last 3 seasons when the Bulls are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, 13-3 in Chicago's last 16 road games off a win by 10+ points and 12-3 in the Magic's last 15 after a win by 6-points or less. These add up to form a strong 71% (57-23) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA No Limit Total Top Play on Pacers/Cavs UNDER

I'm expecting a much lower scoring game than what the books are anticipating with this total. Cleveland comes in off an impressive offensive performance against the Clippers, but I just don't see them coming out with that same level of intensity offensively on the road against a bad team like the Pacers in the second game of a back-to-back set.

Indiana knows that their only chance of winning this game is to slow down the tempo and really turn up the energy defensively. The Pacers have done a pretty good job of that at home, where they are holding opponents to just 96.3 ppg on the season.

On the flip side of this, Indiana figures to have a difficult time scoring against a Cavaliers defense that is allowing just 90.4 ppg in their last 5. Adding to this is the fact Cleveland hasn't allowed 100 points in 10 straight and should have no problem slowing down a Pacers offense that is only averaging 95.5 ppg at home.

UNDER is 11-2 in the Pacers 13 home games this season against teams who are forcing 14 or fewer turnovers/game, 10-1 in the Cavaliers last 11 road games against teams outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game, 7-1 in Cleveland's last 8 road games against a team with a losing home record and 22-4 in their last 26 against an opponent that allowed 100 or more in their last game. These trends combine to form a 86% (50-8) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Nuggets/Celtics OVER

I'm not expecting a whole lot of defense to be played in this one. Both the Celtics and Nuggets will be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and not a whole lot of motivation here given how poorly these two teams have been playing of late. Denver is just 1-10 in their last 11 games, while the Celtics are a 7-16 in their last 23.

Both teams come in off less than impressive efforts defensively. The Celtics allowed New York to score 97 points on 49.4% shooting last night, while Denver allowed the 76ers lackluster offense to put up 105 points. The Nuggets also gave up 104 in their previous game against the offensively challenged Hornets.

OVER is 26-13 in the Nuggets last 39 revenging a same season loss, 21-9 in their last 30 road games after playing two straight games as a favorite and 6-1 in their last 7 against a team with a losing record. OVER is also 19-9 in the Celtics last 28 home games against poor pressure defensive teams (14 or less turnovers/game), 16-7-1 in their last 24 following a SU win and 4-0 in their last 4 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. OVER is 50-22 over the last 5 seasons in games with a total of 200 to 209.5 points that features two bad teams (25% to 40%) facing off in the 2nd half of the season. That's a 69% system. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Raptors/Bucks OVER

I'm expecting a very high scoring game tonight between the Bucks and Raptors. Toronto comes in averaging 116.8 ppg over their last 5 contests, while Milwaukee is averaging a respectable 103.0 ppg over their last 5 outings.

In the previous meeting this season at Toronto in the series, these two combined for 207 points with the Bucks only managing 83 points on 36.5% shooting. I look for Milwaukee to provide a lot more offense this time, which should have this one flying well over the mark set by the books. Adding to this is the fact that the OVER is 8-0 in the Bucks last 8 trips to Toronto.

This is also a solid spot to back the OVER with the Raptors off back-to-back road wins by 5 points or less. Teams in this spot have seen the OVER go 118-65 (65%) since 1996.

The OVER is 14-3 in the Bucks last 17 games in the 2nd half of the season against teams who are allowing opponents to shoot 46% or better from the field, 14-4 in their last 18 road games when listed as an underdog of 6.5 to 9 points and 11-2 in their last 13 when they come in having won 4 of 5. OVER is also 11-2 in Raptors last 13 after allowing 105+ in 2 straight games and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 off a SU win. These trends combine to form a dynamite 83% (55-11) system. Take the OVER!

4* Nuggets/Grizzlies TNT Total Annihilator on UNDER

I'm expecting a low scoring contest tonight between the Nuggets and Grizzlies. Memphis has surrendered 100+ points just once in their last 8 games and during this stretch are holding opponents to just 92.3 ppg. Denver has eclipsed the century mark just once in their last 4 games and are only averaging 98.4 ppg on the road.

The Nuggets come in off a strong defensive effort last night in a 93-85 win at New Orleans and I look for them to bring that same intensity defensively against the Grizzlies, especially with this being a nationally televised game on TNT. This should also have Memphis bringing their "A" game defensively.

However, the big key here is pace. The Grizzlies come in ranked 26th in the league with a pace of 94.2. While Denver is 5th at 98.3, the Nuggets won't be playing up to their normal tempo. Partly due to Memphis being able to control the pace at home and mainly due to Denver playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and their 4th in 5 days overall.

UNDER is 19-6 in the Grizzlies last 25 off a division road win, 20-8 in their last 28 after a blowout win by 15+ points and 4-0 in their last 4 home games against a team with a road winning % of less than 40%. UNDER is also 14-4-1 in Nuggets last 19 when their opponent scores 100+ in their previous game, 6-1 in their last 7 games played on Thursday and 5-0 in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. These trends combine to form a dynamite 78% (68-19) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Total Dominator on Pistons/76ers UNDER

The 76ers have seen each of their last 5 and 12 of their last 13 finish UNDER the total and I'm expecting that trend to continue tonight against the Pistons. Philadelphia comes in averaging a horrific 89.5 ppg and it doesn't figure to get any better with leading scorer Tony Wroten out with a torn ACL and second leading score Michael Carter-Williams questionable with the flu.

While the Pistons have allowed 100+ in each of their last 4 games, they are certainly capable of keeping this 76ers offense in check. On top of this, Detroit doesn't figure to be playing up to their typical pace. The Pistons will not only be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but will be playing their 4th game in the last 5 days. It's also worth noting that Detroit is without one of their top offensive playmakers in Brandon Jennings, who was recently lost for the year with a torn Achilles.

UNDER is 7-1 in the Pistons last 8 games when they come in having covered 3 of their last 4 and 0-3 this season when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days. UNDER is also 9-2 in 76ers last 11 after 2 straight games where they shot 39% or worse and 14-4 in their last 18 revenging a same season loss to an opponent. These trends combine to form a 83% (33-7) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA No Limit Total Top Play on Pacers/Magic UNDER

The books have completely missed the mark on this one. The Magic come into this game ranked 24th in scoring at 95.7 ppg and the Pacers are 27th at 94.7 ppg. We are simply getting an inflated total here due to Orlando having gone OVER the total in each of their last 7 games, including each of their last two with totals of 209 and 206.5.

You have to go all the way back to March of 2010 to find the last time these two teams played a game with a combined score of at least 209 points. Each of their last 20 games in the series have finished below the mark set for this game, including an earlier matchup this season which saw a combined score of just 181 points.

UNDER is 13-4 in the Magic's last 17 games played on Sunday and 87-2 in their last 10 against a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 14-3-1 in the Pacers' last 18 games against a team with a losing record. 

Adding to all of this a strong system. UNDER is 24-5 since 1996 in games with a total of 200 or more points when you have an average team that is +/- 3 ppg differential (Pacers) against a poor team with a -3 to -7 ppg differential, that trailed in their last 2 games by 10 or more at the half. That's a 83% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!

4* Heat/Bulls NBA Total No Brainer on UNDER

Just as I expected, the Bulls carried over the momentum from their 104-81 blowout win at home of the Spurs on Thursday with a 102-98 win at Dallas the next night. I look for Chicago to maintain their renewed focus on the defensive end against the Heat, which should have this game finishing well below the mark.

Slowing down Miami doesn't figure to be too difficult a task, as the Heat have failed scored fewer than 90 points in each of their last 3 games and have topped 100 just once in their last 11 games. It's also worth noting that Miami plays at the slowest pace of any team in the league and Chicago doesn't figure to be pushing the tempo here in what will be their 3rd game in 4 days.

These two teams played back in the middle of December and combined for just 168 points in a 93-75 Bulls wins at Miami. It was the third straight in the series that finished with 183 or less combined score.

UNDER is a perfect 10-0 in the Heat's 10 games played in the month of January and 13-4 in their last 17 games played as a road underdog. UNDER is also 15-4 in the Bulls last 19 home games with a total set between 185 and 189.5 points. These trends combine to form a dynamite 83% (38-8) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Total Dominator on Knicks/Magic UNDER

The books have set the bar too high for this one. These two teams combined for just 192 points in New York back on Nov. 12 and that's the same kind of outcome I'm expecting to see tonight. This line has simply been inflated due to the Magic going OVER the total in 6 straight, including a 246 combined score in their last game against Detroit.

The key here is that the Magic's last 6 games have come against the likes of the Blazers, Bulls, Rockets, Grizzlies, Thunder and Pistons, who are all very capable offensive teams. The Knicks are not anywhere close to being a good offensive team, as they come in averaging 92.8 ppg. Only the 76ers at 90.1 ppg average fewer. New York hasn't topped the century mark since late December (11 straight games) and have seen the UNDER go 16-5 in their 21 home games.

It's also worth mentioning that neither of these teams like to play at a frantic pace. In fact, the Knicks play at the second slowest pace in the league at 92.6, while Orlando is 16th at 96.1. With the game being played at New York and the Knicks well rested (just 2nd game in last 4 days), I look for them to control the tempo, which should have this one finishing well below the mark.

UNDER is 13-5 in the Magic's last 18 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games, 16-6 in their last 22 road games with a total set above 200 points, and 15-2 in their last 17 road games when they come having lost at least 8 of their last 10. UNDER is 12-3 in Knicks last 15 at home, and 5-1 in their last 6 at home against a team with a losing road record. These trends combine to form a 78% (61-17) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month on Spurs/Blazers OVER

This will be the 3rd meeting between these two teams this season and both of the previous matchups have seen plenty of offense. The Spurs and Blazers combined for 203 points in Portland back on Dec. 15 and a few days later combined for 248 in a triple-overtime thriller at San Antonio. Adding to this is that 8 of the last 10 in the series have seen at least 200 points scored.

A big key here is that the Spurs are expected to get back a big piece of their offense, as Kawhi Leonard is upgraded as probable. Leonard hasn't played since Dec. 15 and is San Anotonio's leading scorer at 15.2 ppg. 

Portland comes in averaging 105.1 ppg on the road and are giving up 100.6 ppg, while the Spurs are averaging 106.8 ppg at home and allowing 101.8 ppg. With the Spurs getting back one of their top scorers and Portland coming in with fresh legs (just their 2nd game in the last 5 days), I look for both teams to eclipse the century mark as this one flies over the total.

OVER is 4-0 in the Trail Blazers last 4 games played on Friday. It's also 7-0 in the Spurs last 7 home games against teams who average 53+ rebounds/game, 4-0 in their 4 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and 4-0 in their last 4 versus the Northwest Division. These trends combine to form a perfect 100% (19-0) system. Take the OVER!

5* Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Celtics/Hawks OVER

These two teams combined for 214 points in the Hawks 109-105 home win back on Dec. 2. I'm expecting even more offensive fireworks in the rematch. The Celtics just put up 108 points on the Pelicans at home last time out and are averaging 104.7 ppg at home on the season. Atlanta has scored 100+ in 3 straight and are averaging 104.1 ppg on the road.

One of the big keys here is that both of these teams do an excellent job of sharing the basketball offensively. Atlanta averages 26 assists per game and Boston is right behind at 25. I look for the offenses to have their way in this one, as both teams don't figure to have a whole lot of energy left to use up on defense.

Hawks are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and 3rd in 4 days overall. I just don't see them giving max effort on defense here, especially with games against the Raptors and Bulls on deck this weekend. Celtics are playing with a day off, but this is their 4th game in the last 6 days. Boston also has a lot of new faces with their recent trades and aren't going to have the chemistry defensively to slow down an offense like the Hawks.

OVER is 5-1 in Atlanta's last 6 when playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 32-16 in their last 48 when they come in having successfully covered the spread in 5 or more consecutive games. OVER is also 12-4 in the Celtics last 16 when they come in having lost 2 of 3 and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 off an upset win as an underdog.

Adding to this is a strong a system. OVER is 41-15 since 1996 in games with a total of 200 to 209.5, where you have a team that covered the spread last time out (Celtics) against an opponent that has covered in 6 or more straight games (Hawks). That's a 73% system. Take the OVER!

3* NBA Total Annihilator on Magic/Trail Blazers OVER

The books have completely missed the mark on this total. A big reason for the low total here is the fact that Portland comes in having gone under the total in 4 of their last 5 and the Magic have finished below the mark in each of their last two.

The key here is that Orlando is playing in the 2nd game off a back-to-back set and their 3rd straight road game overall. That's an awful situation to be in against one of Trail Blazers, who have been dominant at home. Portland has not shot the ball well at all in their last two games. They hit just 39.8% from the field against the Lakers on Monday and only 42.1% against Miami on Thursday. The Trail Blazers are going to be motivated here to get their offense going and Orlando simply isn't going to have the energy defensively to stop them.

The other key here is I'm not expecting a ton of intensity from Portland on the defensive side of the ball. It's not easy getting motivated to play a bad team like the Magic and it's even harder to give max effort on defense when you are scoring at will offensively.

It's also worth noting that both of these teams tend to find themselves in high scoring games on Saturday. The OVER is 18-7 in the Magic's last 25 games on Saturday and 23-11 in the Trail Blazers last 34 on Saturday.

The OVER is also a solid 4-1 in Orlando's last 5 games when playing on no rest, 23-12 in the Trail Blazers last 35 with a total set at 190 to 199.5 points and 31-15 in Portland's last 46 when they come in having won 8 of their last 10.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. OVER is 35-10 since 1996 in games with a total of 190 to 199.5, where you have a team that has allowed 85 points or less (Portland) against an opponent that has scored 90 or less in 3 straight games. That's a 78% system. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Situational Total Dominator on Pacers/76ers OVER

When you consider the Pacers are scoring just 95.4 ppg and giving up just 96.8 ppg, your first instinct would be to take the UNDER given the 76ers come in averaging a mere 90.5 ppg. I believe the books have over-adjusted this total, creating some big time value on the OVER.

Indiana isn't going to bring the same defensive intensity against a horrible team like the 76ers, as they would against other teams, especially with how bad the 76ers are defensively. You also have to factor in the Pacers are coming off an overtime game against the Celtics last night. Philadelphia is giving up 106.7 ppg at home. Keep in mind the Pacers have scored and allowed 100+ in each of their last 3 games.

OVER is 9-1 in the Pacers last 10 when playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 8-1 in their last 9 road games after they failed to cover the spread last time out. OVER is also 29-16 in 76ers last 45 home games after playing their last game on the road.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. The OVER is 31-5 since 1996 in games with a total of 180 to 189.5 points, where you have a team off an upset win as underdog of 10 or more points, that are playing 6 or more games in 10 days. That's a 86% system. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Pistons/Mavs OVER

These two teams should have no problem eclipsing the total set for this matchup. Dallas comes into this game allowing a league-best 109.5 ppg and have been even better at home, putting up 111.8 ppg. With the Pistons having just played last night in a closely contested game at San Antonio and this being their 3rd game in the last 4 days, Detroit isn't going to have the energy to slow down this Dallas offensive attack.

The Pistons are going to have rely on their offense to keep them in this one and I expect them to have no problem providing enough here to push this game well over the mark. The Pistons are averaging 107.8 ppg over their 6-game winning streak and Dallas is giving up an average of 102.6 ppg at home.

It's also worth noting that these two teams played recently in Detroit and combined for 223 points in a 117-106 Mavs win back on Dec. 17. It was the third straight meeting in this series that saw at least 215 points.

OVER is 13-4 in Pistons last 17 games against a team that's won 70% or more of their games, 12-1 in their last 13 against the Western Conference's Southwest division, 28-9 in their last 37 when playing their 3rd game in 4 days and 23-8 in the Mavs last 31 after playing 3 straight on the road. These trends combine to form a 78% (76-22) system. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Southeast Division Total of the Year on Magic/Hornets OVER

We are getting some exceptional value here due to both these teams coming off low-scoring games last night. Charlotte connected on a franchise worst 28.7% of their field goal attempts in a 77-98 loss at Oklahoma City, while the Magic managed just 89 points in a 89-98 defeat at home to the Cavaliers.

Keep in mind that these two teams played recently in Charlotte back on Nov. 21. The total for that game was just 191 points and they combined to score 205. It was the 3rd time in the last 4 meetings these teams combined for at least 205 points. I look for this trend to continue when these two division rivals square off tonight.

Another big key here is that both of teams are playing on little rest, which I believe will lead to little to no intensity on the defensive end. Orlando will be playing in their 3rd game in 4 nights and 5th in 9 nights, while the Hornets will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and 6th in 9 days.

OVER is 6-1 in Magic's last 7 games against a team with a losing record and 8-3 in the Hornets last 11 games against a team with a losing record. OVER is also 8-3 in Charlotte's last 11 at home and 14-5 in their last 19 off a loss by more than 10 points. These trends combine to form a 75% (36-12) system backing this one to go above the mark. Take the OVER!

4* Lakers/Bulls Over/Under Total No Brainer on UNDER

These Christmas Day games have a strong history of going UNDER the total and I think we are getting some great value here in tonight's showdown between the Bulls/Lakers. Chicago has turned up the defensive intensity of late. They have allowed 5 of their last 6 opponents under 100-points and I look for them to have no problem keeping this Lakers team in check.

The key here is that with this being such a big game, I look for the Lakers to also come out with their best defensive efforts of the season. Each of the last 9 meetings in this series have finished with fewer points than the total set and over the last 3 seasons these two teams have averaged a combined score of just 190 points. 

UNDER is 50-30 (63%) in Chicago's last 80 games against horrible teams that are getting outscored by 6+ points/game. UNDER is also 6-1 in Lakers last 7 against a team with a winning record. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. UNDER is 100-54 since 1996 when you have a total set at 200 or more points where the road team comes in having covered 4 of their last 5 games and are only winning 25% to 40% of their games. That's a 65% long-term system. Take the UNDER!

3* Wizards/Knicks Early Bird Total Annihilator on UNDER

These two teams combined for just 181 points in their earlier matchup this season back on Nov. 4. I'm expecting another low-scoring battle between these two in the Christmas Day opener. NBA players are use to playing this early in the morning and I look for it to lead to poor shooting and a slower pace than what we would typically see. Last year the Bulls/Nets combined for 173 points in the opener on Christmas Day. In 2012, the Celtics and Nets only managed to combine for 169. 

The other key here is that I'm expecting both teams to come out with some energy defensively. The Wizards are going to be motivated here to get a win after losing each of their last two at home. The Knicks on the other hand will be trying to avoid losing a franchise worst 8th straight game at home in what will be their 50th appearance on Christmas. 

UNDER is 12-4 in Washington's last 16 games against poor defensive teams that are allowing 99+ points/game and 8-1 in their last 9 against strong 3-point shooting teams that are making 36% or more from the outside. UNDER is also 8-1 in the Knicks last 9 home games when listed as an underdog. These trends combine to form a 82% (28-6) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month on Suns/Mavs OVER

I believe we are catching some great value here on the OVER due to the Mavericks struggles offensively in their first two games since acquiring Rajon Rondo. Dallas was able to overcome a slow start last night against the Hawks with a 64 point second half and I look for them to carry over that momentum offensively to tonight's matchup against the Suns. Phoenix is also going to be playing with a lot of confidence offensively, as they just swept a 3-game road trip, where they averaged 104.7 ppg.

The big key here is that both of these teams aren't very strong defensively. The Mavericks come in allowing 102.5 ppg and the Suns are even worse at 103.1 ppg. Both of these offenses like to push the pace and I believe it's going to result in this one flying over the total of 213.5.

OVER is 10-1 in Mavericks last 11 games when their starters combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day, 8-2 in their last 10 after scoring 100 or more points in their last game and 4-0 in their last 4 when playing with no rest. OVER is also 4-1 in Suns last 5 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and 9-3 in their last 12 versus the Western Conference.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. The OVER is 34-9 since 1996 when you have a total of 210 or more points with the home team coming off a win by 10 or more points against an opponent that is off a close loss by 3-points or less. That's a 79% system backing this one to go over the mark. Take the OVER!