5* NBA Western Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Clippers/Pelicans UNDER

The books have set the bar too high for Saturday's total between the Clippers and Pelicans. New Orleans ranks 3rd in the NBA at 111.1 ppg, but they simply aren't going to be the same explosive offensive team going forward. The Pelicans lost star big man DeMarcus Cousins to a season-ending injury. Cousins was averaging 25.2 ppg and a team high 2.2 made 3-pointers/game. New Orleans will have to adjust their style and I think it takes some time for the offense to figure it out. 

The Clippers come in having allowed and scored at least 100 points in 13 straight games, which is also creating value with this big total set here. The offense hasn't been as good for LA the last two games and I think we see them struggle to get going here. 

UNDER is 41-14 (75%) when you have a total of 220 to 229.5 where the road team is revenging a loss to a team that scored 100+ points in the previous meeting and is off a road win. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Knicks UNDER 

I like the value here with the UNDER in Thursday's NBA action that has the Nuggets hosting the Knicks. Denver has really been struggling offensively here of late. They have scored 105 or fewer points in 7 straight games and have shot 41% or worse from the field 5 times during this stretch. 

While the Knicks aren't a great defensive team, Denver has been struggling against teams who are just as bad on that side of the ball. Add in the fact that over the last 15 games both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace and offensive efficiency and I think we have a game that could struggle to see 200 combined points. 

UNDER is 14-6 in the Nuggets 20 games this season as a home favorite, 15-4 in their last 19 when revenging a loss and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 when playing on a full 2 days of rest. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Bulls UNDER

I think we are getting great value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's NBA total between the Bulls and 76ers. Chicago's a team that normally likes to play at a pretty fast pace, but I think we see a much slower tempo here from the Bulls. Chicago is playing their 3rd straight on the road over a span of just 5 days and are coming off a grueling double-overtime loss to the Pelicans. 

The 76ers are also playing for the 3rd time in 5 days and were on the road last time out at Memphis. A game they blew a late lead in by giving up 31 in the 4th quarter. Head coach Brett Brown called out his star players and I think we get a big effort here from the 76ers. The offense also figures to still be limited with both McConnell and Redick out with injuries. 

UNDER is 34-17 in the Bulls last 51 after 3 straight games in which they scored 105 or more points and 10-1 in the 76ers last 11 home games against a team that's only won between 25% and 40% of their games. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Rockets OVER

I look for the Rockets and Timberwolves to have no problem eclipsing the mark set here by the books. Only the Warriors rank higher than these two teams in offensive efficiency this season and the Rockets are a team that likes to push the pace and should dictate the tempo here at home, as they will have both James Harden and Chris Paul available. 

While the Rockets have improved defensively this year, they don't figure to be as good on that side of the ball with both Gerald Green and Trevor Ariza not available because of a suspension. It's also worth nothing that last year all 4 meetings saw at least 220 points with both games in Houston combining for at least 141 points. 

OVER is a perfect 8-0 in the Rockets last 8 home games and 9-1 in the Timberwolves last 10 vs a team with a winning record. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Bulls UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's afternoon showdown between the Heat and Bulls. Miami plays at one of the slower paces in the league. In fact, only the Spurs and Grizzlies play are playing at a slower tempo this season.

Yesterday the Heat played a defensive battle against the Bucks, where they held Milwaukee to just 79 points and the game finished with a mere 176 points and the total was 203.5. With the Bucks on no rest and playing an afternoon game, I look for them to slow down the tempo even more against the Bulls, as they don't want to get in a transition game with Chicago. 

UNDER is 23-12 in the Heat's last 35 road games with a total of 200 to 209.5 and 20-7 in their last 27 off a win by 10-points or less. 

We also have a great system in play. UNDER is 32-8 (80%) going all the way back to 1996 when you have a total is greater than or equal to 200 with a home team off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nets UNDER

This might seem like a low total given the recent outcomes of both of these teams, but my money in this situation is on the UNDER. These two teams don't like each other and will be facing off for the third time this season. The more familiar two teams get with one another, the harder it becomes to score in the halfcourt. 

Another factor here is I don't think either side has a lot of gas left in the tank. Both teams will be playing their 3rd game in the span of just 4 days. On top of that, we have a rare early start time for a weekday game with the holiday and I think that only makes it harder on the players to come out and be effective offensively. 

UNDER is 20-9 in the Nets last 29 home games with a total of 210 to 219.5. It's also 10-3 in Brooklyn's last 14 off a SU loss and 7-1 in their last 8 home games. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Nets UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's NBA action that has the Celtics visiting the Nets. Boston comes in having won 5 straight and they can credit their defense for their most recent run. The Celtics are allowing just 93.2 ppg over this run and are holding opponents to just 37.5% shooting during this stretch. 

On Wednesday they held the Cavs to just 88 points and last night shut down another elite offense, as they held the Timberwolves to just 84 points. I see no reason for Boston to take their foot off the gas defensively against the Nets, but there's a good chance the offense struggles to get going in this one. 

UNDER is 21-8 in the Celtics last 29 after a game where they held their opponent to 90 or fewer points and 25-14 in their last 39 when listed as a road favorite. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Jazz UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's total between the Jazz and Pelicans. Utah comes in off a 104-101 win against the Cavs at home and will be looking to build on that after a really tough stretch. The Jazz are only giving up 95.5 ppg at home this season, as they have held their opponents to just 43.2% shooting from the floor at home. New Orleans isn't exactly playing well, as they just lost two straight at home against the Knicks and Mavs. 

I think we are get a big time effort from both sides defensively here and each side should have some fresh legs having had the lsat 3 days off. UNDER is 18-7 in the Pelicans last 25 road games against a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 45-19 in the Jazz last 64 off a close home win by 3 points or less and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 home games when they come in having lost 3 of their last 4. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Bulls OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Raptors visiting the Bulls. Chicago has been a completely different team here over the last few weeks. They have been a much more explosive offensive team, as they have really spaced the floor well and have a number of guys shooting well from the outside. The Bulls comes in averaging 111.2 ppg over their last 5. 

While the offense has been great, the defense is still a work in progress, as they are giving up 108 ppg during this same stretch. Toronto is one of the more explosive teams in the league, as they average 111.2 ppg on the season. I think both sides have a great shot at eclipsing 110, which should have this flying over the mark set by the books. 

We also have a great system in play. The OVER is 41-16 (72%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a total off 200 or more in a game that involves a bad team (Winning % 25% - 40%) off an upset loss as a home favorite and are playing a team with a winning record. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Spurs OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Tuesday's NBA total featuring the Spurs and Knicks. I think we are seeing a much lower total than what we should based on the fact that San Antonio is coming off a game where they scored just 79 points. Prior to that the Spurs had scored 108 or more in 3 straight games and were fresh off a 119 point outburst in New York. 

OVER is also 24-8 in the Spurs last 32 games following a SU loss and 6-1-1 in the Knicks last 8 vs a team with a winning record and 5-1 in their last 6 following a SU win. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Kings/Grizzlies UNDER

The simple fact that the Grizzlies just played in a game last night with Golden State that saw 269 combined points and have a total less than 200 tonight says it all. Memphis couldn't have played any better in that game, as they laid it all on the line against the defending champs. They shot 52% from the field and were a ridiculous 15 of 21 (71%) from long distance.

The pace of the game was frantic and I just don't see how they come out with any energy tonight, especially against one of the league's bottom feeders in the Kings. Keep in mind that even with the massive outburst last night, the Grizzlies are still averaging a mere 98.3 ppg this season. They simply let the Warriors dictate the tempo. Memphis on the season ranks dead last in the NBA in pace. The Kings love to play at a slow tempo as well, as they are right behind the Grizzlies at 29th in pace. This has all the makings of a low-scoring game. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under TOTAL DOMINATOR on Nuggets OVER

I look for the 76ers and Nuggets to have little to no problem going OVER the posted total here by the books. Denver features one of the most explosive offenses in the league, especially when they are home. The Nuggets are scoring 111.7 ppg at home, while shooting 49% from the field and 38% from long-distance.

They should have no problem reaching their average at home and I would be shocked if they don't eclipse it. The 76ers are giving up 110.7 ppg on the road and will not have their best defender in Joel Embiid, as he sits this one out to rest. While the 76ers will mis Embiid's scoring, they play at a much faster tempo without him on the floor, as he likes to work a lot of isolations. Denver also isn't a great defensive team, so look for Philadelphia to eclipse 100 points rather easily here. 

Last time out the Nuggets combined for 253 points in their game against the Timberwolves and that sets up a very profitable spot, as the OVER is 10-1 in Denver's last 11 games after a contest with a combined score of 245 or more points. Take the OVER!

3* NBA Over/Under TOTAL DOMINATOR on Pistons UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here with the UNDER in Tuesday's NBA action that has two Central Division rivals going at it. Usually these division games are spread over the season, but that's not the case with these two teams. This will actually be the 4th and final meeting between these two sides this season. That familiarity with one another will give the edge to the defenses. It's also worth noting that each of the last two meetings both saw fewer than 208 points. 

Indiana comes in allowing 106.9 ppg on the season and 107.0 ppg on the road, but are only giving up 101.4 ppg against division opponents. I think they can slow down a struggling Detroit offense that has shot 44% or worse from the field in 9 of their last 11 games. Pistons defense has been playing well of late, as the additions of Reggie Bullock and Anthony Tolliver in the starting lineup have given them a boost on that side. We should also get a big effort here from Detroit, as they will have fresh legs playing only their 2nd game in the last 6 days. 

UNDER is 27-11 in the pacers last 38 against a team with a winning record, 4-1 in their last 5 road games and 5-0 in their last 5 division games. UNDER is also 4-0 in the Pistons last 4 at home vs a team with a winning road record and 4-0-1 in their last 5 vs a division opponent. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Knicks UNDER

These Christmas NBA games have a strong tendency to go UNDER the totals set by the books, as the intensity level gets turned up a notch on the defensive side of the ball. I think that's exactly what we have here in the first game on the board with the 76ers and Knicks. These are two teams that are better defensively than they get credit for and we should see the offenses struggle here with such an early start time. 

UNDER is 10-1 in the Knicks last 11 home games off a road cover where they lost outright as an underdog, UNDER is also 7-3 in the Knicks last 10 home games overall. UNDER is also 6-1 in the 76ers last 7 off a SU loss by more than 10 points and 7-2 in their last 9 vs a team with a winning record. Take UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Rockets OVER 

Houston will be without Chris Paul and Clint Cappella tonight and I think it's resulted in some great value here on the OVER in their showdown tonight with the Clippers. The Rockets still have James Harden and are still going to play their same style of jacking up 3-pointers left and right. This team is also use to playing without Paul, so I don't think it's going to affect their scoring output as much as some might think. Keep in mind this is a team that averages 116 ppg at home and will be facing a Clippers team that has been decimated with injuries and just gave up 109 in their last road game against the Spurs. 

Big key here is I don't think the Rockets are going to offer a ton of resistance on the defensive end. Paul is a big spark plug on that side of the ball and Cappella is their best rim protector. Not to mention that Houston likely doesn't want to go all out with their huge showdown against at OKC looming next on Christmas Day. 

OVER is 21-9 in the Clippers last 30 road games when they are playing their 6th or more game in a 10 day span and 22-8 in their last 30 when they come in having lost 2 of their last 3. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Nets UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's NBA action that has the Nets hosting the Pacers. These two teams have been playing much better defensively here of late.

Brooklyn is allowing 111 ppg on the season, but are only giving up just 105 ppg over their last 5. Indiana is only giving up 103.6 ppg over their last 5. UNDER is 6-1 in the Nets last 7 games and 4-1 in the Pacers last 5.

Indiana has also scored less than 100 in two straight, while Brooklyn is only averaging 96.6 ppg over their last 5. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Sixers OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Friday's NBA action that has the 76ers hosting the Thunder. Philadelphia comes in off an impressive 118-112 road win over the Timberwolves. The 76ers are now averaging 108.6 ppg, while allowing 108.9 ppg. In Philadelphia's last 5 games, the average final combined score has been 223 points. 

OKC has had all kinds of problems offensively, but I don't think this 76ers defense is going to be good enough to slow them down. I also think we don't see the best from the Thunder defensively off that emotional game on Wednesday at the Pacers, where Paul George made his return to Indiana. Look for these two teams to light up the nets tonight on ESPN. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Clippers UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Friday's NBA action between the Clippers and Wizards. The Clippers just can't seem to stay healthy. Going into tonight's game they will be without Patrick Beverley, Blake Griffin, Danilo Gallinari and Austin Rivers. They will be taking on a Wizards team that has been playing well defensively, as they are only giving up just 98.8 ppg over their last 5, while also holding their opponents to just 43% from the field. 

As for the Wizards, they are coming off a couple of poor showings offensively. First they only managed 98 on the road against the Nets and then in John Wall's return against Memphis, they only finished with 93. Clippers have held each of their last 2 opponents to 95 or less and really have no choice be to try and slow the game way down to stay competitive. I think these two will be lucky to hit 200. Give me the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Warriors OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Thursday's NBA action that has the Warriors hosting the Mavericks. Golden State is still without Steph Curry and aren't expected to have Draymond Green, Zaza Pachulia or Nick Young for this one. I think those players not being available is playing into this short number on the total. The Warriors still have two prolific scorers in Durant and Thompson. I also think the loss of Green hurts them defensively, especially with Pachulia also out. They will have no choice but to play small. 

Dallas isn't a great offensive team, but a big part of why they don't score a ton is they like to play at a slow pace. They will have no choice here but to play with the Warriors tempo on the road and I think we see a slightly higher scoring output from them here. 

OVER is 13-6 in the Warriors last 19 vs teams from the Western Conference and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 against a bad team like Dallas that has won fewer than 40% of their games. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Over/Under TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rockets OVER

I just don't think the books have set the bar high enough for tonight's total with the Rockets and Hornets. Houston is playing out of their minds right now. The Rockets are 21-4 through their first 25 games and have not lost a game with Chris Paul in the lineup. They are doing it behind an offense that averages 115 ppg, shoots 47% from the field (48% at home) and averages 16 made 3-pointers per game. They should have their way here against the Hornets, who come in allowing 107.4 ppg on the road. 

I think we see Houston eclipse 120 and that would mean all we need out of Charlotte is for them to score a measly 100 points. I think give us more than that. The Hornets are coming off a 116 point showing at OKC on Monday, where they hit 53% from the field. I also think we don't see a big effort here from Houston defensively off a big come from behind win over the Pelicans on Monday and a huge game against the Spurs on deck Friday. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Mavs OVER

Books have set the bar too low for Sunday's total between the Mavs and Timberwolves. Dallas doesn't have great offensive numbers on the season, but are averaging 105.2 ppg over their last 5, which includes a 122-point outburst against the Nuggets. Minnesota's not a good defensive team, as they allow 107 ppg. The Wolves are a good offensive team and are averaging 109 ppg over their last 5. I think these two teams easily hit the 215 mark. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Wizards OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Tuesday's NBA action that has the Blazers hosting the Wizards. I just feel like we are getting value here due to Washington coming off an absolutely dreadful offensive showing in a 69-116 loss at Utah. That's a Jazz team that's playing some of their best basketball and they just got back their defensive ace in big man Rudy Gobert. Simply put the Wizards didn't have it last night. I think we see a completely different team take the court tonight off that embarrassing loss. Keep in mind they had scored 100+ without John Wall in each of their previous two games against the 76ers and Pistons and will be up against a Blazers team that is giving up 109.4 ppg over their last 5. While the offense should be better, I think we get another poor showing from the Washington defense, as they play in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and just let Utah shoot 57% from the field last night. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Hawks OVER

I don't think the books have set the total high enough for Saturday's NBA action that has two of the league's worst going at it when the Nets host the Hawks. Neither of these teams are any good defensively and I don't see them giving a big effort on that side given the opponent. Brooklyn comes in allowing a staggering 115.4 ppg at home this season, so while the Hawks only average 102.8 ppg, look for them to eclipse that mark easily. Not that on the season the Nets are allowing teams to score close to 7 points more per game than what they average. Atlanta's defense isn't much better, as they are allowing 108.8 ppg and while the defense isn't any good for Brooklyn, this Nets team can put it in the basket, as they enter averaging 110.1 ppg on the season and a healthy 115 ppg at home. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Bucks OVER

With both of these teams coming off great defensive efforts in their last game, I think it's created some great value here with the total and this one going OVER the mark set by the books. Last time out the Bucks held the Kings to just 87 points, while the Blazers limited the Knicks to just 91. 

I just think there's too much offensive fire-power here. Milwaukee has scored 108 or more in each of their first 3 games on their 4-game road trip, while the Blazers have scored at least 103 in each of their last 3. 

OVER is 9-3 in the Bucks last 12 road games and 4-1 in their last 5 against a team from the Western Conference. OVER is also 5-1 in the Blazers last 6 vs a team with a winning record and 8-3 in their last 11 against the Central Division. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Late Night Total DOMINATOR on Jazz OVER

I like the value here with the total and it going OVER the mark set by the books in Tuesday's NBA action that has the Jazz hosting the Nuggets. Utah simply isn't the same top tier defensive team without big man Rudy Gobert, who is out with a Tibia injury. At the same time, the Jazz have found a new spark plug offensively in rookie Donovan Mitchell. He's a big reason why Utah is putting up 109.8 ppg over their last 5. 

Denver is an ideal team for a high-scoring game, as they like to get up and down the floor and come in averaging 107.8 ppg on the season and 113.6 ppg over their last 5. At the same time, the Nuggets are not a great defensive team. They are allowing 106.5 ppg overall and 110.2 ppg on the road. 

OVER is 12-3 in Utah's last 15 games over a home win by 10 or more and 15-4 in the Nuggets last 19 road games with a line of +3 to -3. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Lakers UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's total between the Lakers and Clippers. These two teams don't like each other and we can expect a big time effort from both sides on the defensive side of the ball. That was certainly the case in the first meeting between these two teams this season, as they combined for an even 200 with a total of 219.5. While the books have adjusted the number quite a bit from that contest, I still think it's way too high. 

The Clippers have really struggled offensively of late. In their last 4 games they have scored fewer than 100 points 3 times, twice failing to reach 90. The lone exception was against a horrible Hawks team, where they had 116. Lakers are giving up 107.1 ppg, but have shown flashes of being a decent defensive team and are currently 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

UNDER is 17-5 in the Clippers last 22 home games off a road win and 10-2 in their last 12 vs a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 4-1 in the Lakers last 5 on the road and 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in the series. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Nets UNDER 

I like the value here with this high total for Sunday's NBA action that has the Grizzlies hosting the Nets. The UNDER has been a great bet with Memphis at home, as it's 8-2 so far this season. A big reason for that is the Grizzlies aren't a great offensive team and even when going up against a bad defense like Brooklyn tend to struggle to score. Memphis is also a great defensive team at home, as they are only giving up 99.3 ppg. The Nets are averaging nearly 4-points less on the road than they are for the season and I look for them to struggle here. 

UNDER is 13-3 in Brooklyn's last 16 games when they come in having scored 105 or more points in 3 straight games. UNDER is also 23-11 in the Grizzlies last 34 as a home favorite and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Jazz UNDER

The books have set the bar too high for Saturday's non-conference clash between the Bucks and Jazz. Both of these teams are strong defensively and the biggest key here is that neither of these teams like to push the pace. Utah ranks 26th in pace of play and the Bucks are right behind them at 27th. Milwaukee comes in averaging just 97.8 ppg over their last 5 and will be facing a Jazz defense that is only giving up 95.3 ppg at home this season. 

UNDER is 9-2 in the Bucks last 11 against a team with a losing record and 12-4-1 in their last 16 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. UNDER is also 5-0 in Utah's last 5 when playing a team with a winning record and 9-3 in their last 12 off a straight up win. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Spurs UNDER

No team in the NBA plays at a slower pace than San Antonio and when you combine that with how efficient the Spurs are on the defensive side of the ball, you have a perfect recipe for low-scoring games.

The key here is we are getting value with this total due to the Pelicans struggles defensively, as they come in giving up 110.4 ppg. However, New Orleans has been much better defensively against division opponents, as they are only giving up 98.5 ppg. At the same time, the Spurs aren't a great offensive team right now, as they continue to play without Leonard and Parker and come in averaging a lousy 94.6 ppg on the road. 

UNDER is 8-2 in the Pelicans last 10 vs a division opponent and 8-3-1 in their last 12 vs a team with a winning record. UNDER is also 28-15 in the Spurs last 33 road games off a home win. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Knicks UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's total between the Knicks and Raptors. These two teams just played last Friday and combined for just 191 points with a total of 217. While the books have adjusted the total for the rematch, I don't think it's near enough, as I think the two teams struggle to get to 200 points. 

Toronto is locked in right now on the defensive side of the ball, as they have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 42% or worse shooting. They also don't mess around when facing a division opponent, as they have held their Atlantic rivals to just 91 ppg this season. New York isn't a great defensive team, but better than they get credit for and are clicking on that side of the ball right now, as they are giving up just 97.6 ppg over their last 5. 

UNDER is 7-3 in the Raptors last 10 division games and 5-1 in their last 6 when playing on 2 days of rest. UNDER is also 20-7-1 in New York's last 28 against a team from the Eastern Conference and 4-1 in their last 5 vs at team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Spurs UNDER

The books have set the total too high for Friday's showdown between the Spurs and Thunder. Without Kawhi Leonard the Spurs aren't the same efficient offense that we have grown accustomed to and OKC is still in the process of trying to figure out to play together. Both of these teams rank in the bottom half of the league in offensive efficiency and I just think given how big a game this is, that both teams will bring it defensively. 

Note that the Thunder have scored 94 or fewer points in 5 of their last 7 games and the Spurs only give up 98.9 ppg on the season. San Antonio has failed to reach 100 in 3 of their last 4 and twice failed to reach 90 points in this stretch. OKC is giving up just 97.1 ppg on the season and a mere 96.3 ppg on the road. 

UNDER is 13-3 in Thunder's last 16 road games and 9-2 in their last 11 off a SU win. UNDER is also 4-1 in the Spurs last 5 vs the West and 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams in San Antonio. Take the UNDER!

3* LATE INFO INSIDER 

No Analysis on LATE INFO INSIDERS 

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No Analysis on late releases

3* LATE INFO INSIDER

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4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Pacers UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here with the total in Tuesday's NBA matchup between the Pacers and Pelicans. I look for this one to stay well below the mark set by the books. Indiana comes in off 3 high scoring games on the road, which is certainly playing into this total. However, the UNDER is 3-1 in the Pacer's 4 home games this season.

In their last two home games they held the Spurs to just 94 points and the Kings to 83. New Orleans has two studs, but lacks shooting and have failed to eclipse 100 points in each of their last 4 games. At the same time, the Pelicans have been playing well on the defensive side of the ball, allowing just 100.8 ppg over their last 5. 

UNDER is 14-4 in the Pacers last 18 after allowing 105 or more points in 3 straight games and 11-1 in the Pelicans last 12 road games off a road win. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Late Night VEGAS INSIDER on Nets UNDER

With Brooklyn having gone OVER the total in 3 straight games, where all 3 games saw at least 235 combined points and Phoenix having allowed 112 or more points in each of their last 5 games, I think the books have made a big overreaction here with the total for tonight's game and created some big time value on the UNDER. 

Phoenix ranks second in the NBA in pace, but I just don't see how they are going to have the energy to push the ball up and down the floor tonight. The Suns just finished a 5-game road trip that spanned 9 days with yesterday's game at San Antonio. It's hard enough playing on no rest as it is, but this is just brutal. I look for Phoenix to really try to slow things down and that should be more than enough to keep this below the massive mark set by the books.

UNDER is 12-2 in the Nets last 14 after scoring 105 or more points in 3 straight games. It's also 11-4 in the Suns last 15 when coming off a game in which they failed to cover the spread and 5-1 in their last 6 at home against a team with a losing road record. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Hawks UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's NBA action between the Celtics and Hawks. The UNDER is an impressive 6-2 during Boston's 8 game winning streak. The Celtics have held all 8 opponents during this stretch to 94 or fewer points. 

Atlanta is only averaging 102.7 ppg and scoring roughly 5 points fewer than what their opponents have been allowing on the season (107.4 ppg). While the Hawks defense hasn't been great, Boston's not exactly lighting it up offensively. The Celtics are only scoring 102.9 ppg and big reason for that is they rank in the bottom 5 in pace of play. 

They figure to play at an even slower pace than normal tonight, as the Celtics are not only playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but their 3rd road game in the last 4 days. Atlanta is also playing for the 3rd time in 4 days, so they too won't be looking to get up and down the floor. 

UNDER is 6-1 in the Hawks last 7 when playing on 0 days of rest and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record. UNDER is also 8-1 in the Celtics last 9 after scoring 100+ points in their previous game and 25-8 in their last 33 road games when coming off a win. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Knicks UNDER

I really like the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's matchup between the Knicks and Pacers. I believe the number here has been inflated due to recent results, as the OVER has cashed in each of the Pacers last two games and each of the last 3 for the Knicks. 

These Sunday games have to be the least popular day for NBA players to play and it often leads to sluggish showings on the offensive side of the ball. That's been the case for both of these teams, as the UNDER is 15-6 in the Knicks last 21 games played on Sunday and 6-2 in the Pacers last 8 on Sunday. 

We also got a great system in play here favoring this one to finish below the mark. UNDER is 44-18 (71%) going back to 1996 when you have a total of 210 to 219.5 where the road team comes in having scored 105 or more points in 2 straight games and is facing an opponent that has had a combined scored of 215 or more in each of their last 3 games. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Spurs UNDER

I don't see Friday's matchup between the Spurs and Hornets reaching 200 points, as I expect both teams to bring the defensive intensity in this one. San Antonio has followed up a 4-0 start by dropping their last 4. The most recent being a 92-112 loss to the Warriors at home last night. San Antonio isn't use to stretches like this and know the best way to get back on track is to turn up the defensive pressure. 

Charlotte has won 3 straight and are off a 126-121 win over the Bucks. Head coach Steve Clifford wasn't exactly happy with the victory. He said it was the worst showing on defense the Hornets have had this season. I expect his team to respond with a big time effort. It will help they are catching the Spurs in the second game of a back-to-back. San Antonio has also been struggling offensively here of late, scoring 94 or fewer points in each of their last 4 games. 

Keep in mind these are two teams that rank in the Top 10 on the season in defensive efficiency. UNDER is also 4-1 in the Hornets last 5 road games, 5-2-1 in the Spurs last 8 against the Eastern Conference and 6-1 in their last 7 games played on Friday. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Late Night Total DESTROYER on Lakers/Blazers UNDER

One of the things that I think is getting overlooked with this Lakers team early on is their improvements on defense. Last year LA ranked dead last in the league in defensive efficiency at 110.6. This year they are sitting at 6th at 100.0. I know it's early, but that's a very encouraging sign. 

I think that defense will play a big role in tonight's game against the Blazers, who are going to have tired legs after last night's overtime loss to the Jazz. Their stars in McCollum and Lillard both played more than 40 minutes. 

At the same time, I think Portland still shows up here defensively in a nationally televised game on TNT. I just don't think they have their normal pace offensively. Blazers are another team that's started out much better on the defensive side, as they ranked in the bottom 10 in defensive efficiency and are in the Top 5 to start out 2017. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Late Night Total BAILOUT on Clippers UNDER

I think we are getting some value here with the total, as this one has all the signs of a game that is going to stay UNDER the mark set here by the books. Los Angeles is coming off an embarrassing 28-point loss at home the Warriors, where they gave up 141 points to Golden State. 

I expect the Clippers to bounce back in a big way on the defensive side of the ball. Keep in mind that they came into that game having held 4 of their first 5 opponents under 100 points with the Blazers 103 the most they had allowed in a single game. 

Dallas might be lucky to break 90, as they are scoring just 90.3 ppg on the road this season. The Mavs also play at one of the slowest paces in the league. Only Chicago and Utah are playing at a slower pace. Add that with the Clippers not being as up-tempo as years past with Chris Paul no longer running the point and there just doesn't figure to be enough possessions to eclipse this mark. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Jazz UNDER

Utah is your ideal NBA team for low-scoring games. The Jazz are playing at the slowest pace of any team in the league, while ranking near the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency and near the top in defensive efficiency. As low as this total might seem given today's high-scoring NBA, the average score in Utah's game this season is just 184.1 ppg.

The fact that the Jazz are playing at home is also important to note. Not only do opposing teams tend to struggle away from home, Utah is one of the more difficult places to play because of the thin air. So far this season they are only giving up 88.2 ppg at home. Portland is a good offensive team, but we saw them score just 85 last time out at home against the Raptors. The Blazers are also playing really good defense, limiting opponents to just 98.3 ppg. 

UNDER 5-1-1 in Utah's 7 games this season and 5-2 in Portland's 7 games. All signs point to another low-scoring game here that stays well below the mark set by the books. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Pacers UNDER 

This might feel like it's not enough points with how poorly the Cavs have been playing defensively, but I expect Cleveland to tighten things up against one of their Central Division rivals. Another thing is that the Cavs aren't clicking offensively, scoring just 101 ppg over their last 3.

That offense will be put to the test by an Indiana defense that has each of their last two opponents under 95 points. We can bank on a strong effort here by the Pacers against Cleveland, who is the measuring stick for all these other Eastern Conference teams. 

I also don't think we see a fast pace here. Cleveland's the oldest team in the league and their coach has flat out called them out of shape. Indiana on the other hand is playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and their 3rd in 4 days. The UNDER is a strong 34-14 in the Pacers last 48 when playing 3 in 4.

We also find a strong system in play. The UNDER is 35-13 (73%) when you have a total of 210 to 219.5 involving a team that's gone under the total by 12 or more points in two consecutive games (Pacers) and are playing a division opponent. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER on Nets UNDER

I like the value here with the total in Tuesday's NBA action between the Suns and Nets. I think the books have set the total way too high for this contest. Brooklyn's offense has struggled the past two games, scoring just 86 at New York and 111 at home to the Nuggets. The more telling stat is that the Nets have shot under 42% from the field in 4 straight games. 

Phoenix has been playing much better on defense under interim coach Jay Triano, allowing just 105.7 ppg after giving up 128.7 ppg under Watson. They have also been a lot better at defending the 3-point shot. Offensively the Suns are only scoring 102.5 ppg and a mere 97.5 ppg on the road. I just don't see enough offense here from Phoenix for this to go over this high total. 

UNDER is 5-2-1 in the Nets last 8 against a bad team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 10-4-2 in their last 16 after giving up 100 or more points in their previous game. Take the UNDER! 

3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Pacers UNDER

No analysis on late plays

3* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Sixers UNDER

I expect a highly competitive game on Monday when the Rockets host the 76ers in Houston. While Philadelphia is just 2-4 on the season, their 4 losses have come against the Wizards, Celtics, Raptors and these same Rockets. That defeat to Houston came last Wednesday, where the 76ers lost on a last second shot. 

Those two combined for just 209 points and that was with a huge 64 point 1st quarter. After that neither team scored more than 26 in a single quarter and I look for defense to again be the story with the familiarity these two teams now have with each other. Both teams could also be missing some key scorers. Philadelphia's J.J. Redick is questionable with a back injury and Houston, who is already without Chris Paul, could be minus Eric Gordon, who is also questionable. 

Houston is considered a great OVER team, but that's just not been the case this season. They went OVER the total in their opener at Golden State, but have since went UNDER in 6 straight games and it's just as much their offense not producing at the same level as it is their improved play defensively. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Heat UNDER 

The books have set the bar to high for Monday's matchup between the Timberwolves and Heat. Minnesota is coming off a huge 119-116 home win over the Thunder and the OVER is 5-0-1 in their 6 games this season. I believe that has this total number a bit higher than it should be.

It's only a matter of time before Thibodeau gets the Timberwolves playing better on the defensive side of the ball and I expect a big effort here coming off 2 days of rest. I also think we get a strong  effort here from Miami at home, as they will be trying to avoid a third straight loss. 

UNDER is 13-2 in the Wolves last 15 road games after a contest in which they covered the spread and 10-0 in their last 10 road games off an upset win over a division rival as a home dog. 

We also have a great system in play here backing a low-scoring game. UNDER is 32-8 (80%) going back to 1996 when you have a total of 210 or more and a game featuring a well-rested team playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, who had a losing record the year before. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Situational HEAVY HITTER on Magic UNDER

The Magic have been impressive on the offensive side of the ball as they are scoring 118 ppg early. I think that has this total a little too high for this division showdown on the road against a hungry Hornets team that is looking to bounce back from a ugly home loss to the Rockets on Friday. Even after allowing 109 at home to Houston, Charlotte is giving up just 97.7 ppg at home on the season. 

I think their defense gives Orlando trouble here, plus I think we could see a flat Magic team taking the floor, as they have won 3 straight and are fresh off a blowout win over the Spurs. Both meetings in Charlotte last year finished with fewer than 203 points and the Magic scored just 81 and 88 in the two games. 

UNDER is 30-15 in the Hornets last 45 home games after going under the total in their previous game and 17-3 in their last 20 home games against a division opponent! Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Afternoon Total DESTROYER on Bucks UNDER

The books have set the bar too high for Sunday's afternoon showdown between the Bucks and Hawks. The only two teams to score more than 100 points on Milwaukee this season are the Cavaliers and Blazers, who have some big time offensive weapons. Atlanta doesn't even have one top tier player on their roster and are scoring just 98.5 ppg. The only time the Hawks have eclipsed 100 points is games against bottom feeders Dallas and Brooklyn. 

While Atlanta is struggling to put the ball in the basket, they are playing respectable on defense. Milwaukee also isn't a great offensive team, as they just don't have a lot of shooting. Bucks are only putting up 102 ppg. I think we see both offenses fail to reach the century mark in this one. 

UNDER is 20-6-1 in the Bucks last 27 when facing an opponent who scored 100+ in their previous game. UNDER is also 22-8-2 in the Hawks last 32 after they allowed 100+ in their previous game and 22-9 in their last 31 after playing a non-conference game. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Late Night BAILOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Pistons UNDER

I like the value here with UNDER quite a bit in Saturday's late night action between the Pistons and Clippers. Los Angeles just allowed 100 points for the first time this season, as they gave up 103 points to the Blazers. The Clippers are still giving up just 91.7 ppg and that number drops to just 86 ppg at home. 

Detroit is a team they can lock down on and keep from putting up a big number. The Pistons have benefited from playing a soft schedule when it comes to the defenses they have faced. In fact, they are averaging just 106 ppg against teams that on average give up 107 ppg. Detroit is also not bad defensively, as they are allowing just 102 ppg and the Clippers aren't as dynamic offensively without Chris Paul running the point. 

The Pistons scored 122 in their last game, but that's actually a good thing for us, as the UNDER is 25-11 in Detroit's last 36 after a game where they scored 120 or more points. UNDER is also 5-1 in their last 6 home games and 4-0 in their last 4 when they are playing a team that scored 100+ in their previous game. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Sixers OVER 

I think we get a much higher scoring game than the books are expecting on Saturday when the Mavericks host the 76ers. Both of these teams are struggling on the defensive side of the ball. Philadelphia is giving up 111.3 ppg on the road and the Mavericks are allowing 109.2 ppg at home. 

Dallas has held 3 of their 6 opponents under 100 points, but that's a bit misleading. Two of those came against the Grizzlies, who aren't a team built to score a ton and the other was against the Kings. They allowed 117 to the Hawks, 133 to the Warriors and 107 to the Rockets. The 76ers' defensive numbers are a bit skewed from one game where they held the Pistons to just 86 points. They have allowed 100+ in every other game. 

I look for both teams to eclipse the 100 point mark in this one and this one finishing closer to 220 than 205. OVER is 11-1 in the 76ers last 12 road games off a home loss and 7-3-1 in the Mavs last 11 games off a loss. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Rockets UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's NBA action between the Rockets and Grizzlies. Houston is a team the public looks to play the OVER on because of how great they were offensively last year, but the Rockets offense hasn't been producing like it had a season ago. The Rockets scored 122 in their opener against Golden State, but haven't scored more than 107 in each of their 4 games since. They are also playing much better on defense, giving up just 102 ppg. 

Memphis is an ideal UNDER team, as they like to play a more grind it out style, where they work for good shots on offense and lock down defensively. The Grizzlies are scoring just 100.4 ppg and giving up 95.2 ppg. 

Another key factor here is these two teams just played a little over a week ago and the game finished with 188 points. I think we see a very similar outcome in this one. UNDER is 15-4 in the Rockets last 19 road games with a line of +3 to -3 and 20-9 in the Grizzlies last 29 games when listed as a home favorite. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Spurs UNDER

I think we are getting some good value here with the total in Friday's non-conference matchup between the Spurs and Magic. Orlando has been an offensive juggernaut thru 4 games, averaging 119 ppg. I just don't think the talent is there for them to sustain that production and it's aided by an easy early schedule, which includes 2 games against the Nets. 

The Spurs are an elite team and off to a 4-0 start. Believe it or not they have never started 5-0 in their franchises history. Not that they need any motivation, this team shows up to work no matter who they are missing or who the opponent is. Their strong start has a lot to do with their defense, which is only giving up 93.2 ppg. I'm willing to bet the Spurs dictate the tempo here and this total stays under 200 points. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under HEAVY HITTER on Bulls OVER

I like the value here with the total and tonight's game between the Bulls and Hawks going over the low mark set by the books. Both of these teams are in the early stages of rebuilding their roster and are also adjusting to a lot of new pieces. No surprise that defense has been an issue for both of these teams. Chicago is giving up 107.7 ppg and the Hawks are allowing 110.0 ppg. 

Offensively both of these teams are going to be challenged when facing the top tier of the league, but they are more than capable of putting up a big number against the other bottom feeders and that's exactly what I expect to see here. Atlanta had 117 against the Mavs and 104 vs the Nets. Chicago hasn't even got a crack at bad team, having played the Raptors, Spurs and Cavs, but did just score 112 at Cleveland. 

OVER is 8-2 in Atlanta's last 10 vs a team with a losing record and 5-2 in the Bulls last 7 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Late Night Total NO BRAINER on Lakers UNDER

I like the value here with the total in Wednesday's late night action that has the Wizards visiting the Lakers. Washington's backcourt duo of Wall and Beal are going to take this one personal against the Lakers. They are going to come in looking to shut down Lonzo Ball. I look for their effort defensively on Ball to take him completely out of his game, much like we saw in the Lakers opener when Patrick Beverly made it personal guarding Ball and LA managed just 92 points on 41% shooting. 

Washington's offense can get up and down the floor, but they aren't as efficient on the road. After scoring 120 against the 76ers and 115 against the Pistons at home, they managed just 109 at Denver. Not that 110 is bad, but we are talking about a total of 230+ points. Add in this being a nationally televised game on ESPN and I think the effort will be there on the defensive side of the ball for both teams. 

We got a great system in play here. UNDER is 26-6 (81%) since 1996 when you have a total of 210 or more with a team that had a losing record the previous season and is playing only their 2nd game in 5 days. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Best Bet 'VEGAS INSIDER'  on Mavs UNDER 

The Grizzlies are come in allowing just 94.0 ppg and that's really impressive when you consider they have faced both the Warriors and Rockets. Memphis held Golden State's high-powered attack to just 101 points and two days later held Houston to a mere 90 points. Clearly the Grizzlies are locked in on the defensive side of the ball and I see no reason why they won't shut down a Dallas offense that is as limited as they come. 

In fact, the Mavericks are so limited they are trying to slow the game down and grind out each possession just to be competitive. That's going to make it hard for either team to eclipse the 100 point mark and I wouldn't be shocked if this one finished closer to 180 points. Keep in mind they played a game last year towards the beginning of the season where they combined for a whopping 144 points. 

UNDER is 25-9 in the Grizzlies last 34 road games off a win over a division rival and 22-7-1 in the Mavericks last 30 games after they scored 100 or more point sin their previous game. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under TOTAL DOMINATOR On Rockets UNDER

I like the value here with the total and this one staying UNDER the mark set by the books. Houston hasn't looked like the offensive juggernaut from last year and could find it hard to get going against a stingy 76ers defense that has held it's 4 opponents to just 42.8% shooting. A impressive feat given they have played the Wizards, Celtics, Raptors and Pistons, with 3 of the 4 on the road. 

The other key here is that Philadelphia isn't a great offensive team. They are only shooting 42.3% from the field and scoring a mere 99.5 ppg. While the offense is still trying to finds it's rhythm, Houston's defense has played really well. They gave up 121 to the Warriors in Golden State, but have held all 3 opponents since that game to 100 or fewer. 

This has also been a very profitable spot to back the UNDER in Rockets' games. The UNDER is 14-4 in Houston's last 18 road games with a line of +3 to -3. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Western Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Blazers UNDER

The books have set the bar way too high for tonight's Western Conference clash between the Blazers and Pelicans. Portland will finally get to play a game at home after opening the season with 3 straight on the road and have had a full two days off to get back their legs. I expect a big time defensive effort here by a very underrated Blazers team.

They should be able to keep the Pelicans in check, as there's not a lot you have to worry about outside of the two bigs in Cousins and Davis. Prior to giving up 113 to Milwaukee the Blazers held the Pacers to 96 and the Suns to a mere 76. I think this one ends up closer to 210 than 220. 

UNDER is 15-4 in the Pelicans last 19 road games after they scored 110 or more points in each of their previous two games and 13-3 in their last 16 road games after covering the spread in 2 straight. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Wolves OVER

The Pacers have allowed 112 or more points in each of their first 3 games and I look for that trend to continue here against the Timberwolves, who after struggling to get going offensively against two of the better defensive teams in the Jazz and Spurs, exploded for 115 points in a win at OKC. I think we could see Minnesota go off for 120+ here, which means we just need Indiana to reach 100 points to have an excellent shot at this going over the mark set here by the books. 

Indiana will be without one of their better players in Myles Turner, but there's a lot more talent on this Pacers roster than people think. OVER is 10-1 in the Pacers last 11 road games and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 on the road against a team with a winning home record. OVER is also 8-2 in the Timberwolves last 10 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 5-0 in their last 5 off a SU win. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Bulls UNDER

Chicago was going to feature one of the worst rosters in the league when they were healthy and they are without at least 3 starters and 4 of their best players with Kris Dunn, Zach LaVine, Nikola Mirotic and Bobby Portis all sidelined with injury or suspension. Last time out the Bulls managed just 77 points on 38% shooting and it's going to be an offensive struggle until they start getting some of those guys back. 

Cleveland isn't going to cut them any slack, as the Cavs come into this one off an embarrassing 21-point home loss to the Magic. Prior to that they held both the Celtics and Bucks under 100 points and should keep Chicago well below the century mark. Cavs are still trying to find themselves offensively and missing a key piece with point guard Derrick Rose sidelined with an ankle injury. At the same time, Cleveland could score 120 points and this could still go UNDER this high total. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Late Night Total NO BRAINER on Kings UNDER

This total might seem like it's way to low given the Suns have allowed 124 or more points in each of their first 3 games, twice allowing 130+. The most recent was a 88-130 defeat to the Clippers, which cost head coach Earl Watson his job just 3 games into the season. That's on the players and their lack of effort. I expect them to come out and given it all they got at home in this one. 

The Kings on the other hand are a team that has played in some really low-scoring games to start the year. They held the Rockets to 105 points in a game that had just 205 points with a total of 216.5. They then combined for 181 at Dallas with a total of 202 and 175 at Denver with a total of 212.5. Sacramento has held all 3 of their opponents under 44% shooting and now face a Suns team that has failed to score 90 in 2 of their 3 games. Key here is the Kings don't play at a frantic pace and aren't a great offensive team. Sacramento is averaging just 90.7 ppg.  Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Rockets OVER

Houston has went UNDER the total in each of their last two games, both games finishing with 205 or less. I think that has the total way too low for tonight's showdown against the Grizzlies. The Rockets only shot 39.8% from the field against at Sacramento on no rest after the big win at Golden State and still managed 105 points. They finished with 107 in their next game at home against the Mavs, but it would have been a lot more if the game wasn't a blowout. Houston had 92 points thru 3 quarters. 

Memphis is a good defensive team, but I don't see them being able to keep the Rockets offense in check with this game being played in Houston. Key here is the Grizzlies are in good form offensively to start the year, averaging 107.0 ppg. I think both teams easily eclipse the century mark and this one finishes closer to 225. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Vegas INSIDER Top Play on Bucks UNDER

This might seem like a low total given the Bucks are giving up 108.7 ppg, but that's more of who Milwaukee has played. They opened the season at Boston before hosting the Cavs and Blazers. They held both the Celtics and Blazers UNDE 43% shooting and should be able to do it here against a Hornets team that is only hitting 41.5% from the field in two games against the Pistons and Hawks. 

Charlotte is playing a much slower-paced game with the focus on defense and the offense running through big man Dwight Howard. I look for both of these teams to struggle to get in any kind of rhythm offensively and don't think either side will be able to reach the 100 point mark in this one. Take the UNDER! 

4* LATE INFO INSIDER on Lakers OVER

No Analysis on late releases

3* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER  on Hawks OVER

The fact that Atlanta scored just 91 in their last game at Charlotte has this total lower than it should be. Brooklyn has decided that defense isn't something they are all that interested in playing and I don't see it changing here. The Nets gave up 140 at Indiana in their opener and 121 last time out at home against the Magic.

Each of their first two games have had a combined score of at least 147 points. They also let both of those teams shoot better than 50% from the field, which speaks volumes to their effort on that side of the ball. The Hawks scored 117 at Dallas in their opener and I think they easily hit that mark, which should be more than enough to push this one over the number set by the books. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Blazers UNDER

The books have set the bar too high on the total for Saturday's non-conference matchup between the Blazers and Bucks. Portland's defense has been exceptional to start the year. The Blazers held the Suns to just 76 points in their opener and that same Phoenix team score 130 the next night. They followed it up by holding the Pacers to just 96 and Indiana had scored 140 in their previous game.

Bucks are talented young team with a great player in Antetokounmpo, but aren't a great 3-point shooting team and are strong defensively. Exactly what you look for when you want a low-scoring game. I also think the tempo of this game won't be up to normal pace with both teams playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. For Portland it's their 3rd road game in 4 nights and Milwaukee just put it all on the line last night against the LeBron and the Cavs at home. 

Backing this play is a great long-term system. The UNDER is 58-25 (70%) over the last 5 seasons (3-0 to start 2017) when you have a total of 200 or more in a non-conference game with a team that averaged 14 or fewer turnovers/game the previous year (Blazers). Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Bulls UNDER

I just don't see these two teams playing a very high-scoring game here tonight. San Antonio is without their best offensive weapon and MVP candidate in Kawhi Leonard, as well as starting PG Tony Parker. Chicago has half their roster either hurt or suspended and even at full strength the Bulls were going to feature one of the weakest rosters in the NBA, as they are in the very early stages of a major rebuilding phase. 

San Antonio is one of the most efficient defenses in the league just about every year and were spot in their opener, holding the T-Wolves to just 99 points on 43.5% shooting. Chicago only connected on 41.6% of their attempts at Toronto and I think they are going to find it really hard to put the ball in the basket tonight. Key here is we should get enough effort out of the Bulls defensively to keep this from going over. 

Backing this play is a great long-term system. The UNDER is 58-25 (70%) over the last 5 seasons (3-0 to start 2017) when you have a total of 200 or more in a non-conference game with a team that averaged 14 or fewer turnovers/game the previous year (Spurs). Take the UNDER!

5* 76ers/Raptors VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Raptors OVER 

I look for these two teams to fly OVER the total set here by the books. Philadelphia scored just 92 in the loss at home to Boston last night and are going to be without one of their best defenders in Embiid, who isn't playing back-to-backs just yet. I think the entire 76ers team struggles on defense being on the road with no rest against a potent Toronto offense that needed just 83 shots to score 117 in their opener.

The Raptors did allow a Bulls team that was missing half their roster to score 100, so we can expect Ben Simmons and company to at least hit that mark. Keep in mind that Philadelphia had 115 in their opener at Washington. 

OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings overall and 6-2 in the last 8 times they have played in Toronto. OVER was 14-6 in 76ers last 20 games last year when playing on no rest and 7-0 in Toronto's last 7 home games when playing against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/UNDER Total DOMINATOR on Jazz UNDER

The Timberwolves should be one of the more improved defensive teams this season. They added in Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson and Jeff Teague to pair with Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns. Head coach Tom Thibodeau is a defensive first guy and after not playing well on that side of the ball against the Spurs in the opener, I expect a strong showing at home against the Jazz. 

Utah is also the ideal teal for a team to go up against when you want to a low-scoring affair. The Jazz don't play at a frantic pace and are very strong defensively with the best rim protector in the game in Gobert. They allowed the fewest points in the league last year, giving up just 96.8 ppg and were on point in their opener, allowing just 96 to a very good Denver team that wants to get up and down the floor. 

UNDER is 21-9 in the T-Wolves last 30 games against a division opponent and 7-3-1 in their last 11 home games against the Jazz. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nets OVER

Defense is clearly not a priority for the Nets. Brooklyn ranked 2nd to last in points allowed last year at 112.5 ppg and started out the 2017 season by giving up 140 to a Pacers team that lost their best scorer in Paul George. The big difference is that the Nets now have some offensive fire-power to stay with teams. They scored 131 against the Pacers and even with the loss of Lin, should continue to score at a high rate. 

Orlando put up 116 in their opener against the Heat, while giving up 109 and that was with Miami shooting just 43% from the field. Both these teams want to push the pace and play in the open court, which should have us flying over the mark set by the books. 

History is also on our side here. The OVER is hitting at a 61% clip since 1996 when you have a team off a combined score of 225 or more against a team off a combined score of 235 or more. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Pistons OVER

Washington combined for 235 points with the 76ers in their home opener and I see another high-scoring game against Detroit at home tonight. The Wizards are down starting power forward Markieff Morris and may also be without his backup in Jason smith, who left the last game with a shoulder injury. They don't have a lot of other options outside of moving Kelly Oubre Jr. into the 4, which becomes a much more uptempo offense in their version of 'small ball' 

Detroit held the Hornets to just 90 points in their opener, but Charlotte was down 3 key players in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Nicolas Batum and Michael-Carter Williams. While that aided their defense, the Pistons offense was sharp, connecting on 43% from the field. They are more than capable of running with the Wizards. Both teams should easily get to 100 points and have this finishing closer to 220. Take the OVER! 

5* Knicks/Thunder NO LIMIT Top Play on Thunder/Knicks UNDER

This is just too many points for this matchup. I believe we are seeing a high total here because of the fact that the Thunder now have 3 superstars in Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony. As good as those 3 are, it's going to take some time for these guys to form a chemistry on offense. George and Anthony are accustomed to being "the guy," but will have to learn to take a back seat to Westbrook. 

I think it takes as much as the first 20 games before this team really gels. The other thing is the depth isn't what it use to be. The Thunder are going struggle to get a whole lot out of their bench. 

There's also a decent chance the starters don't play the entire game here, as the Knicks have the makings of one of the worst teams in the league. New York just doesn't have the offensive fire-power and in today's game where everyone is lighting up the scoreboard, they didn't even average 100 ppg in the preseason when no one is playing defense. I don't see the offense doing much here on the road in what's going to be electric atmosphere inside Chesapeake Energy Arena. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on 76ers/Wizards OVER

I think we are going to see a ton off offense and very little defense in the first of ESPN's double-header on Wednesday. The Wizards were 5th in the league last year at 109.2 ppg and should be every bit as explosive with their core back. Washington's defense wasn't great, giving up 107.4 ppg and I look for them to have their hands full against what many believe will be one of the most improved teams in the league. 

The 76ers not only have a healthy Embiid, but they get last year's No. 1 pick Ben Simmons after he didn't play at all last season, plus add in this year's No. 1 pick in Markelle Fultz. Not to mention a sneaky good free agent signing in sharpshooter J.J. Redick from the Clippers. When healthy, this is one of the deeper teams in the league and I expect them to look to push the pace with Simmons and Fultz.

While they could develop into a decent defensive team, that's going to take some time and probably won't be for a season or two, as they are so young and don't have a lot of chemistry together. Both teams should score well over a 100 points in this one. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Pistons UNDER

Both the Pistons and Hornets figure to be in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race and I think both teams are going to rely heavily on the defense this season. Charlotte went out an added Dwight Howard, who needs the game to be played at a slow pace to be a serious factor. The projected starting 5 lacks scoring outside of point guard Kemba Walker. 

Detroit's not much different, as they are built around big man Andre Drummond. The Pistons also added one of the premier perimeter defenders in Avery Bradley, who I'm sure will be matched up with Walker. Detroit ranked 26th in scoring last year and I don't see any reason to expect them to be much better. Both were Top 15 in scoring defense and while today's NBA features a lot more high-scoring games, I think we see a defensive battle here in the opener, which is also the first game in Detroit's new arena. Take the UNDER! 

3* Rockets/Warriors Opening Night TOTAL DESTROYER on Warriors UNDER

I like the value here with the massive total for Tuesday's opener between the Warriors and Rockets. These two teams were offensive juggernauts last year, but I just don't see this being a shootout. While the Warriors have basically the same team back from last year, Houston has added a huge new piece to the puzzle in point guard Chris Paul. 

The addition of Paul should make the Rockets a better team, but I think it's going to take some time for this team to find their chemistry. Last year James Harden dominated the ball and the offense ran completely through him. Paul is a similar type of player, who is at his best when the ball is in his hands. It's going to take some time for them to figure it out. 

Golden State's offense will be tough to stop, but this Houston team is as talented and deep as you will find and we can bank on the Rockets giving everything they have here against the defending champs and favorites to win it all this year. As for the Warriors, I think there's enough distractions here with the ring ceremony that we see a them come out less than 100% focused. Houston also added a couple of defensive minded players in P.J. Tucker and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, who give them a better shot at slowing down Durant, plus you now have Paul guarding Curry. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Finals NO LIMIT Top Play on OVER

After a relatlvely low-scoring Game 1, I think we are seeing some decent value here on the total and it going over the mark in Game 2. Keep in mind the total was as high as 227 in Game 1. Golden State scored 113 and it could have been a lot more had they not missed so many easy shots around the rim. The real killer to the total in Game 1 was the Cavs inability to get their offense going, as well as they just shot the ball bad. Cleveland shot just 34.9% from the field. What people overlook is the Warriors also didn't have a great shooting performance, as they hit only 42.5%. Their worst mark from the field since a regular season meeting against the 76ers back on March 14. The lopsided score also aided a lower scoring Game 1, though I think we could see another blowout and this game still fly over the mark. Take the OVER!

4* Celtics/Cavs Game 3 Annihilator on OVER

Each of the first two games have flirted right on the number with Game 1 just squeaking OVER and Game 2 staying UNDER. Both games we got next to nothing from Boston's offense and still almost hit our mark. I know this series is all but over, but I don't expect the Celtics to go down without a fight here. I also think that we could see the Cavs relax a bit defensively given how easy it's been so far in the series and that Boston will be without their best player in Thomas. As for Cleveland's offense, I don't see them taking their foot off the gas and I don't see the Celtics doing anything here to stop them from lighting up the scoreboard, especially now that the series has shifted to Cleveland Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Conference Finals Game of the Year on UNDER

Each of the first two games in this series have gone well over the total and yet we are seeing the books stick close to their original number of 212 that they opened with for Game 1. With the series shifting to San Antonio and the Warriors off a 36-point blowout win in Game 2, I think Game 3 is poised to be a much lower-scoring game. For one, Golden State is primed for some kind of letdown here after how easy it was in Game 2 and don't figure to shoot as well on the road. San Antonio on the other hand is playing to keep their season alive. While the series isn't over with a loss, the Spurs know their chances of advancing down 3-0 are slim to none against this Warriors team. We are going to get everything San Antonio has and they know their only way of even keeping it close so they have a chance to win is to lock down defensively and slow the pace of play down. My money is on Popovich and his staff to make the proper adjustments and keep the Warriors high-powered attack in check. Take the UNDER!

5* Wizards/Celtics Game 7 Top Play on UNDER

The OVER had gone 4-1 in the series before a grueling 92-91 win by the Wizards in Game 6. It wasn't just one quarter where both teams were off. The highest combined point total of any quarter was 52. That's a 110 pace if they would have reached that mark in every quarter. This is just how the playoffs work. The deeper you get into a series the more intense it gets. That combined with the familiarity with each other usually results in much lower scoring games than what we might have seen earlier in the series.

This is really magnified in Game 7, where it's win or go home. Not only are teams giving 100% on defense every single play, but the pressure of the game often leads to some poorer shooting percentages. For most of the players on both of these teams, this will be the biggest game of their career. I would side with Boston given the advantage the home team has in Game 7 historically, but feel the best value is with the total. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Spurs/Rockets UNDER

These two teams combined for 217 points, just eclipsing the total of 216, but needed OT to get there, as the two combined for only 202 at the end of regulation. The Rockets only played 7 players in that game and all 7 logged at least 26 minutes and 6 of the 7 played 34 or more with 4 players eclipsing 40 minutes. Houston clearly ran out of gas in that game. Playing at home will help those tired legs, but I just don't see the Rockets playing at the ridiculous tempo here and for this one to finish well below the numbers the books have posted. I believe we will see a similar style of game to Game 3, where the two combined for 195 points. Take the UNDER!

4* Warriors/Jazz NBA Over/Under No Brainer on UNDER

The public loves to back the OVER in Warriors games, which has created some great value when they go up against some of the better teams. In fact, the UNDER is 20-5-1 in the Warriors last 26 games against a team that simply has a winning record (not just the elite teams). It's 2-1 in the series with Game 3 in Utah finishing with 193 points on a total of 209. That was with Durant and Curry combining for 61 and Hayward and Gobert teaming up for 50. Utah's known for their defense and the Warriors aren't too far behind them, the media just focuses on the offense. I don't see the Jazz going out without a fight and I also think Golden State is motivated here to match the Cavs with back-to-back sweeps to start the playoffs. I wouldn't be shocked if this game fails to reach 190 points. Take the UNDER!

4* Raptors/Cavs Over/Under Total No Brainer on OVER

I just don't trust the Cavaliers defense right now. They allowed 108.8 ppg in their opening series against the Pacers and face an even more potent offense here in Toronto. The Raptors didn't put up big numbers offensively in their first series against the Bucks, but that was because of how long and talented Milwaukee is on the defensive side of the ball. Cleveland has a lot more holes defensively, plus they like to play at a much faster tempo and shoot a ton of 3's. While the Cavs defense struggled, the offense was on point and I look for a high-scoring game here with both teams being well-rested. These two combined for only 181 point sin their last meeting, but that was the regular season finale where several starters didn't play. The previous two games between these two teams saw them combine for 138 and 128 points. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors/Bucks UNDER

I was all over the UNDER in Game 3 (1st Rd Total of the Month) and I'm sticking with it for Game 4. I expected a much slower paced game when the series shifted to Milwaukee in Game 3 and see no reason to think Game 4 is all the sudden going to be a shootout. The Bucks have shown they matchup well with the Raptors, who just can't get comfortable with the size of Milwaukee.

On the flip side of this, Toronto's back is against the wall, as they certainly don't want to fall behind 3-1 in the series. Look for an all out effort here from the Raptors on the defensive side of the ball. At the same time, we can expect some regression from Milwaukee's offense, which shot a ridiculous 53% from the field and 52% behind the 3-point line. As for the Bucks, I don't see them not bringing it as well, as they know all their hard work is for nothing if they let Toronto win here and take back the home court advantage. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Playoffs (1st Rd) TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Raptors/Bucks UNDER

I really like the value here with the UNDER in Game 3 between the Raptors and Bucks. These two combined for just 180 points in Milwaukee's 97-83 win. They would go for 206 in Toronto's 106-100 victory in Game 2. With the series shifting to Milwaukee and the Bucks clearly better off with a slower pace, I look for them to dictate the tempo. This is also a huge game in the series, as both teams will be desperate for that 2-1 series lead. UNDER is 6-1 in the Raptors last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record and 16-5 in their last 21 road games overall. UNDER is 16-4 in the Bucks last 20 when facing an opponent that scored 100+ in their last game, 5-1-1 in their last 7 overall and 4-0 in their last 4 after a loss. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Bucks/Raptors UNDER

These two teams combined for just 180 points in Game 1 with a total of 198. The books have adjusted big time for Game 2, but I don't think it's going to matter. These are two really good defensive teams that matchup well against the other. Toronto's defense improved big time when they added in Ibaka and Tucker, while the length of the Bucks really makes it hard for the opposition to get into any kind of rhythm.  I don't see either team getting 100 points and wouldn't be shocked to see a very similar combined score to Game 1. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Playoffs Over/Under Total Annihilator on Grizzlies/Spurs UNDER

The playoffs bring a whole different intensity and while we don't see the UNDER cashing regularly right out of the gate, I think this series is one that is going to be an offensive struggle for both sides. Memphis isn't as good defensively as they have been in the past, but they were 6th overall in defensive efficiency this season. The Spurs on the other hand were the best in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Factor in that both of these teams value possession of the ball and rank in the bottom 5 in pace, I think both teams will struggle to reach 90 points. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Mavs/Bucks UNDER

Milwaukee should have no problem keeping the Mavericks offense in check and keeping this well below the mark set by the books. Dallas has been eliminated from playoff contention and aren't going to be look to push the tempo here and just won't have that same edge to their play. That's a problem for a team that has scored fewer than 98 points in 5 of their last 6 games. Milwaukee still hasn't clinched a playoff spot and are going to bring the defensive intensity in this one and the Bucks have been playing much better defensively during their big late season run. As for Milwaukee's offense, they aren't overly explosive and will likely be without point guard Malcolm Brogdon, who isn't getting near enough talk about being Rookie of the Year. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Late Night Total No Brainer on Suns/Blazers OVER

I really like the value here with the total in Saturday's NBA matchup between the Suns and Blazers. Portland averages 110.3 ppg at home and Phoenix gives up 113.7 ppg on the road. On the flip side of this, the Blazers allow 109 ppg and the Suns average 107.1 ppg. Both these teams like to get up and down the floor and play at a fast pace. Last time out the Suns combined for 242 points in a 118-124 loss to the Clippers. Portland combined for 224 in a win over the Rockets and the game before combined for 235 with the Nuggets. It's also worth noting that Phoenix has allowed 120 or more points in 4 of their last 5 games. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Spurs/Thunder UNDER

I think the books have set the total way too high for tonight's big matchup between the Spurs and Thunder on ESPN. Oklahoma City has went UNDER the total in 5 of their last 6, while the Spurs have gone UNDER in 3 of their last 5. These two teams have played twice this season and both times have finished with 202 or fewer points. I believe we could see an even lower-scoring game than normal, as both of these teams are in a bit of a flat spot. Spurs are coming off back-to-back games against the Cavs and Warriors, while the Thunder are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights off a couple of grueling road games at Dallas and Orlando where they had to make big comebacks in the 4th quarter. UNDER is 32-17 in the Spurs last 49 as a road favorite of 6 or less and 31-17 in Thunder's last 48 as an underdog.

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Bucks/Hornets UNDER

I really like the value here with the total, as the books have set the bar too high for this one. This is a huge game for both of these teams and I believe it's going to be a lot like a playoff atmosphere. Milwaukee is tied for 5th in the east, but are just 2.5-games from missing the postseason completely. One of the teams trying to sneak into the mix is the Hornets, who are 2-games back of 8th place Miami. Not to mention that Milwaukee has really been playing well defensively over the last month and Charlotte is a team that can lock down defensively at home when they need to. UNDER is 8-1 in the Hornets last 9 home games in the 2nd half of the season against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Hawks/Bucks UNDER

The Bucks have been locking down opponents on the defensive side of the floor lately. Milwaukee has allowed more than 103 points just twice in their last 12 games and both of those came on the road with one of them being the Warriors. They should have no problem keeping the Hawks in check at home. Atlanta continues to play without two of their most important pieces in Millsap and Bazemore. The Hawks have scored 100 or less in 5 straight games. Atlanta can't keep messing around. They are sitting in 5th place in the east, but just 3.5 games from being in 9th. I look for both teams to bring the intensity on defense and keep this well below the number. UNDER is 13-3 in the Hawks last 16 road games after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 and 14-2 in their last 16 off a road loss. UNDER is also 20-8 in the Bucks last 28 games in the month of March and 9-1 in their last 10 when facing a team that scored 100 or more in their last game. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Pacers/Celtics UNDER

I really like the value here with the total in tonight's matchup between the Pacers and Celtics. Boston has really been locking teams down defensively in the 2nd half of the season and it's resulted in 17 of their last 21 going UNDER the total posted by the books. Indiana has also been playing much better on defense of late, as they have allowed 100 or less in 9 of their last 10. The Pacers have seen the UNDER going 16-7 in their last 23. These two teams also have a tendency to play lower-scoring games than the books expect, as 7 of their last 10 meetings have finished UNDER the total. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month on Spurs/Wolves UNDER

I'm expecting a much lower-scoring game than the books are anticipating when the Wolves and Spurs clash on ESPN tonight. San Antonio is one of the elite defensive teams in the league and come in allowing just 98.6 ppg. Minnesota's defense slipped during their 3-game road trip, but the T-Wolves have held the Wizards, Warriors and Clippers to 104 or less points in their last 3 home games. Keep in mind that these two teams also just recently played on 3/4 and combined for a mere 187 points. UNDER is 31-17 in the Spurs last 48 as a road favorite of 6-points or less and 13-3 in their lat 16 in the 2nd half against marginal losing teams (40% to 49%). UNDER is also 4-1 in the Wolves last 5 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Pacers/Raptors UNDER

I really like the value here with the total in Sunday's NBA matchup between the Pacers and Raptors. Indiana comes in having held each of their last 5 opponents under 100 points and failed to eclipse the 100 point mark in 3 of their last 4. Their last game saw just 175 combined points and the game before that was just 168. Toronto has held 2 of their last 3 opponents to 80 or points or less and combined for a mere 162 in their last game at Detroit. Toronto's just not the same offensive team without Lowry and have to rely more on their defense. UNDER is 24-7 in the Raptors last 31 off an upset win and 16-5 in the Pacers last 21 overall. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Spurs/Grizzlies UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive battle here between these two Southwest Division rivals. The Spurs come in allowing just 98.5 ppg which is second in the league behind the Jazz. Memphis isn't far behind, as they rank 4th at 100.4 ppg and are even stronger at home, where they allow a mere 97.2 ppg. UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. It's also 9-3 in the Grizzlies last 12 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and 12-4 in the Spurs last 16 after they scored 100 or more points in their previous game. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Bucks/Clippers UNDER

Both of these teams are fighting for playoff position and will be extra motivated after losing last time out. Milwaukee was embarrassed in a 93-113 defeat at Memphis, while the Clippers lost at Utah 108-114. Note that prior to giving up 113 to the Grizzlies, the Bucks had held each of their last 5 to 100 points or less and 8 of their last 9 to 102 or fewer. I expect a much more locked in Milwaukee team in this one on defense. LA is also a team that can play defense and they have been trending much better on that side of the ball.

UNDER is 24-9 in the Clippers last 33 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points, 13-3 in their last 16 home games in the month of March, 22-9 in their last 31 home games after a game where they failed to cover the spread and a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 after 3 straight games where they shot 47% or better from the field. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Non-Conf Total of the Month on Bucks/Grizzlies UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring defensive battle tonight between the Bucks and Grizzlies. I know Memphis has slumped on the defensive side of the ball of late, but they were better in their last home game against the Hawks. With the losing streak at 5 now, I'm expecting a max effort here from the Grizzlies and it starts with the defensive side of the ball. Milwaukee will be more than willing to grind it out with Memphis, as the Bucks have been sensational on the defensive side of the ball of late. Milwaukee has held each of their last 5 opponents under 98 points and will face a Memphis offense that managed just 90 points on 37.8% shooting in their last game.

UNDER is 15-6 in the Grizzlies last 21 as a home favorite, 17-5 in their last 22 when revenging a loss of 10 or more and 7-1 in their last 8 when facing a team with a losing record. Take the UNDER!

4* Warriors/Wolves NBATV Heavy Hitter on UNDER 

The injury to Durant combined with Curry just not playing at the same level as the past two years has the Warriors offense in a funk. Golden State is averaging just 102.4 ppg over their last 5 and that's well below their season mark of 117.0 ppg. They now face a Minnesota team that is locking down on the defensive side of the ball. The Timberwolves have allowed 97 or fewer points in 4 straight. While the offense has struggled, Golden State's defense has picked up the pace and they are really playing well on that side of the ball. I look for both offenses to struggle here. We know we are going to get a max effort from the Timberwolves at home in a game being televised on NBATV and the Warriors aren't going to take this one lightly off a loss. UNDER is 9-1 in the Warriors last 10 road games after 5 straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 42% or less and 13-5 in their last 18 road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Rockets/Spurs UNDER

I'm taking the Spurs and Rockets to finish below the high total set here by the books. San Antonio can be a dominant defensive team when they want to and are capable of slowing down the Rockets. In fact, they have held Houston to 100 points or fewer in 9 straight meetings between the two clubs. That includes two games this year, which the two teams combined for 206 and 202 points respectively. I expect a similar outcome here.

UNDER is 12-3 in the Rockets last 15 road games after scoring 105 or more points in 4 straight games, 11-4 in their last 15 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. UNDER is also 8-2 in the Spurs last 10 when playing on 1 day of rest, 10-1 in their last 11 off a win and 5-1 in their last 6 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Heat/Mavs UNDER

The fact that offenses are scoring at a ridiculous pace this season has forced oddsmakers to adjust the totals big time and I believe it creates some decent value when you get two teams like the Mavericks and Heat that aren't all that great offensively and still bring it on the defensive end of the floor. Dallas has especially been grinding games out of late. The Mavs have failed to eclipse 100 points in 4 straight and allowed 100 or less in their last 3.

Miami's offense has been playing well during their huge 2nd half surge, but I don't see them putting up a big number here on the road against this Mavs team. Not only will the Heat not being scoring as much as normal, they should be able to lockdown defensively on Dallas, who is scoring just 96.2 ppg over their last 5. Take the UNDER!