Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-03-18 | Celtics v. Bucks -1 | 102-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
3* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Bucks - I like the value here with Milwaukee as a short home favorite against the Celtics on Tuesday. The Bucks are still trying to clinch a playoff spot and I expect an all out effort here after how they lost their most recent game. Milwaukee somehow managed to blow a 18-point lead with under 8 minutes to play in an overtime loss at Denver. Prior to that the Bucks had won 4 of 5 and come in having covered 5 of 6. Boston has won 6 straight, despite Kyrie Irving being sidelined with a knee injury. This is a team that has proven they can win regardless of who is out of the lineup. However, I think this will be a tough spot for the Celtics. They are fresh off a huge win over the Raptors at home on Saturday, which moved them within 2-games of the No. 1 seed in the east. With another big game against the Raptors in Toronto on deck tomorrow, I think we could see Boston having a hard time giving the Bucks their full attention. Take Milwaukee! |
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04-03-18 | Raptors +2 v. Cavs | 106-112 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
4* NBA Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Raptors + I like the value here with Toronto in Tuesday's big showdown at Cleveland. The betting public is going to be all over the Cavs in this one as a short home favorite. Cleveland comes in having won 3 straight and are 8-1 in their last 9 overall. They have gone an impressive 7-2 ATS during this stretch. As for the Raptors, they have failed to cover their last 8 games, including a recent loss at Cleveland back on 3/21, where they lost by 3-points as a 2-point favorite. This not only a big revenge game for Toronto, but one they desperately need if they want to keep hold of the No. 1 seed in the east. As bad as they have been playing, I expect the Raptors to treat this like a playoff game. Cleveland will be without point guard George Hill for this game and that's a big loss. I also think the Cavs are going to really struggle to keep up with Toronto's bench, which is one of the best in the league. Despite their recent strong play, Cleveland is still a miserable 18-37-2 ATS in their last 57 home games and are a mere 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Toronto! |
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04-03-18 | Red Sox v. Marlins +1.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
4* MLB Run Line MASSACRE on Marlins +1.5 + I like the value here with Miami on the run line against the Red Sox on Tuesday. This is simply too good a price to pass up on with the Marlins, who just need to keep this within a run to cash a winning ticket. Miami is going to end up being one of the worst teams in the league. However, there is some value backing this team early on, as they are playing with a chip on their shoulder to start the season. While the Marlins lost the series opener against the Red Sox yesterday, they were able to split their 4-game series with the Cubs to start out the year. Miami will send out Jose Urena, who had his struggles on Opening Day against the Cubs, giving up 5 runs on 6 hits with 4 walks and just 2 strikeouts in 4 innings. That was simply a poor outing for Urena, who has the stuff to be a top level starter. Keep in mind he went 14-7 with a respectable 3.82 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 34 appearances (28 starts) in 2017. The Marlins are 14-7 SU in their last 21 after a loss the past two seasons. Take Miami! |
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04-03-18 | Rays +145 v. Yankees | 4-11 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 1 m | Show | |
3* MLB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Rays + I like the value here with Tampa Bay as a decently priced road dog against the Yankees on Tuesday. This is simply a great price to back the Rays with their ace, Chris Archer, on the mound. Archer didn't have his best stuff in his first start, but did finish with six strikeouts and just one walk in 6 innings of a no decision against the Red Sox. Facing off against New York always seems to bring the best out of Archer, as he's got a 2.96 ERA and 1.033 WHIP in 17 career starts against the Yankees. Tampa Bay ended up defeating the Red Sox and Chris Sale on Opening Day, but followed that up with 3 straight losses. This has been an ideal bounce back spot for the Rays, as they are 14-5 in their last 19 off 3 straight division losses. Take Tampa Bay! |
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04-02-18 | Indians v. Angels +118 | 6-0 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 38 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational MONEY LINE SMASH on Angels + I like the value here with the Angeles as a decently priced home dog against the Indians on Monday. Los Angeles opened the season by going on the road and taking 3 of 4 from the A's, winning the final 3 games of the series after losing the opener 5-6. The offense put 22 runs on 44 hits. In comparison the Indians offense managed just 11 runs on 18 hits in their 3-game series at Seattle. There's no denying that Cleveland is one of the elite teams in the AL, but I believe it has them overvalued to start to the season, especially on the road. This is an Angels team that has the talent to take that next step and I'll gladly ride them here with how they are swinging the bats. Take Los Angeles! |
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04-02-18 | Michigan v. Villanova UNDER 145 | Top | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
5* NCAA Championship Game VEGAS INSIDER on Michigan/Villanova UNDER I love the value here with the UNDER in Monday's National Championship Game between Villanova and Michigan. The Wildcats just put up 95 in a convincing win over Kansas that flew over the total of 155 and to no surprise the public is pounding the OVER in the title game tonight. Those who have watched Villanova, know this is a team that loves to shoot the 3-pointer and they couldn't have been hotter from deep to start their Final Four game against the Jayhawks. The Wildcats hit 13 of 26 3-pointers in the 1st half, as they exposed Kansas big man Azubuike and his inability to guard the 3-pointer. Michigan is a much better defense team than the Jayhawks and are much better equipped to defend the 3-pointer. I expect the Wolverines to try and slow down the game, as the last thing they want to do is get in a shootout with Villanova. The problem here for Michigan is they aren't a great offensive team and the Wildcats are a much better defensive team than people think. This matchup reminds me a lot of Villanova's Elite 8 matchup with Texas Tech, which finished with just 130 points. Take the UNDER! |
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04-02-18 | Orioles v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -119 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
5* American League TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Orioles/Astros OVER 9 I love the value here with the OVER in Monday's AL matchup that has the Astros hosting the Orioles. This will be Houston's home opener and that makes this an extra special night for the defending champs, as they will get their 2017 World Series rings. I think we are going to see plenty of offensive fire-works in this one. Houston's offense struggled in their first two games against the Rangers, scoring just 5 runs on 11 hits, but exploded in the final two games with 17 runs on 27 hits. It's not out of the question that the Astros could eclipse this total on their own, as they will be facing the Orioles Chris Tillman, who was a miserable 1-7 with a 8.12 ERA and 1.946 WHIP in 19 starts last season. That included an awful 13.28 ERA and 2.697 WHIP on the road. Houston's starting rotation has been lights out to start and they will send out Charlie Morton for this one. Morton is coming off a strong 2017 season, but I think he struggles here against an Orioles lineup that is poised to breakout after scoring just 5 runs while getting swept at home by the Twins to open the season. Take the OVER! |
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04-01-18 | Grizzlies v. Blazers -14.5 | 98-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Portland - I got no problem laying the big number here with the Blazers as they host the Grizzlies on Sunday. Portland is 16-3 over their last 19 games and 23-7 over their last 30. This impressive run has the Blazers sitting in the No. 3 spot in the west and they know this is one they can't afford to lose if they want to secure that spot. What I love is they won't be taking the Grizzlies lightly. These two teams played on Wednesday at Memphis and the Grizzlies blew a 7-point lead with around 5 minutes to play in a 103-108 loss as a 5.5-point favorite. They are going to be out for revenge and this time will make sure to put away Memphis early and keep their foot on the gas. The Grizzlies 2-game winning streak came to an end with 97-107 loss at Utah on Friday and Memphis is a mere 5-15 ATS this season off a double-digit defeat. Blazers are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 at home and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs a team with a losing road record. Take Portland! |
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04-01-18 | Cardinals v. Mets OVER 7.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
3* MLB Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Cards/Mets OVER I like the value here with the OVER in Sunday's MLB action that has the Mets hosting the Cardinals. While we have a couple of decent starters on the mound, these are two teams that can put up runs. St Louis has scored just 6 runs over the first 2 games, but that's to be expected going up against Syndergaard and deGrom. Now they face Steven Matz, who had a 6.08 ERA and 1.530 WHIP in 13 starts a season ago. Matz was especially bad at home, where he was 0-4 with a 10.39 ERA and 2.031 WHIP in 5 starts. The Cardinals will send out Luke Weaver, who is a promising young starter, but he will be up against a red-hot New York offense that has scored 15 runs on 23 hits over the first 2 games. The Mets could have put up even more, as they have left double-digit men on base in each game. I like New York's chances of keeping it going in this one and pushing this game over the short total. Take the OVER! |
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04-01-18 | 76ers -2.5 v. Hornets | 119-102 | Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show | |
4* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Sixers - I like the value here with the 76ers laying a short number on the road against the Hornets Sunday. Philadelphia won't have Joel Embiid, but I don't see that being a problem. They won by 17 over the Knicks with Embiid playing just 9 minutes on Wednesday and won by double-digits at Atlanta without him on Friday. The 76ers have now won 9 straight and I don't see them taking their foot off the gas here, as they are fighting to get that No. 3 spot in the east. While Philadelphia is going to be extremely motivated to play well in this contest, I don't think we see the same fight from the Hornets. Charlotte came into the season with the expectations of making the playoffs, but those hopes were recently put to rest, as they have been eliminated from postseason play. I think the Hornets will have a really hard time finding motivation over the final 5 games of the season and should be a bigger dog given the circumstances. Note the 76ers have dominated the series this season, winning each of the first 3 meetings by double-digits, including a 14-point win in their lone game at Charlotte. Take Philadelphia! |
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03-31-18 | Loyola-Chicago +5.5 v. Michigan | 57-69 | Loss | -110 | 150 h 57 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB 'Final Four' VEGAS INSIDER on Loyola-Chicago + I like the value here with the Ramblers in their Final Four showdown with Michigan. I think the perception is that Loyola-Chicag's Cinderella run will come to an end against the Wolverines, but I not only think the Ramblers can keep it close enough to cover, but I like their chances of winning this game outright. By now it's no secret that Loyola has gotten to this point because of their defense. I just don't know that people realize how good the Ramblers are on that side of the ball. They have held all 4 of their opponents to this point under 70 points, holding 3 of the 4 to exactly 62 points. It's not just effort, the coaching staff of Loyola has done a tremendous job gameplanning for their opponent. Michigan had one great offensive game against Texas A&M, where they shot 62% from the field. The other 3 weren't all that good. They shot just 35.6% in their last-second win over Houston and a mere 38.8% in their 4-point victory over Florida State. What gets over looked with the Ramblers and that elite defense, is how efficient they are on the offensive side of the ball. Loyola-Chicago's worst shooting performance in the tournament came in their first game against Miami, where they shot just 47.3%. They hit 50% against the Vols, 56% against Nevada and 57.4% vs the Wildcats. Ramblers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 as a dog and 8-1 ATS in their 9 tournament games played this season. Take Loyola! |
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03-31-18 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +125 | 3-5 | Win | 125 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Blue Jays + I like the value here with the Blue Jays as a decently priced home dog against the Yankees. New York has won the first two games of the series behind two really strong outings from starters Severino and Tanaka. While C.C. Sabathia got his career back on track in 2017, going 15-6 with a 3.54 ERA in 31 starts, he's going to be 38 in July and could fall apart at a moments notice. Toronto will counter here with Marco Estrada, who I think is a prime candidate for a bounce back season. Estrada posted a 4.98 ERA in 33 starts in 2017. Prior to that he had posted a 3.48 ERA in 2016 and 3.13 ERA in 2015. One reason to like Estrada and the Blue Jays in this one, is the success that Estrada has had in his career against the Yankees. He's 6-3 with a 3.86 ERA in 14 starts (Blue Jays are 10-4 in those 14 starts). This is also a spot in which it's been very profitable to back the Blue Jays, as they are 20-8 in their last 28 after losing the first two games of a series. They also own a 20-9 record in the 29 starts Estrada has made in Game 3 of a series. Take Toronto! |
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03-31-18 | Cardinals +125 v. Mets | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
3* MLB Money Line MASSACRE on Cardinals + I like the value here with St. Louis as a decently priced road dog against the Mets on Saturday. New York won the opener 9-4. The Cardinals got a bad start from their ace Carlos Martinez, as he lasted just 4 1/3 and walked 6. Most will just look to back the Mets here with deGrom on the mound, but I have my concerns with him early on after dealing with a back injury in spring training. It's also not like the Cardinals aren't sending out a capable starter, as they give the rock to Michael Wacha. He made one start against the Mets in 2017 and it was sensational, as he allowed just 3 hits in a complete game shutout. He improved to 4-1 with a 1.97 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in his career against New York. Take St Louis! |
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03-30-18 | Astros v. Rangers +180 | 1-5 | Win | 180 | 22 h 47 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Rangers + I like the value here with Texas as massive home dog against the Astros on Friday. There's no question that Houston is one of the most talented teams in the league, but they are way overvalued to start the year after winning the World Series last season. While the Rangers aren't expected to be a serious contender in the AL, they aren't as bad as the line here would suggest. The Cubs are almost an identical priced road favorite as the Astros are, yet Chicago is taking on by far the worst team in baseball in the Marlins. Unlike Miami, Texas has an above-average lineup that can put up runs and are certainly capable of getting to Houston starter Dallas Keuchel. The problem with Texas is their starting pitching and today's starter, Doug Fister, isn't anything to write home about. However, Fister is a crafty veteran that knows how to keep his team in the game. I look for him to pitch well here and for the Rangers to get their revenge from yesterday's loss. Take Texas! |
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03-30-18 | San Francisco v. North Texas -3.5 | Top | 77-88 | Win | 100 | 32 h 42 m | Show |
5* NCAAB 'CBI' Champ Game VEGAS INSIDER on North Texas - I like the value here with the Mean Green in Friday's CBI Championship Game. Unlike the other postseason tournaments, where it's win or go home, the CBI plays a best of 3 series for the title. These two teams have split the first two games of the series with the home team dominating in each matchup. San Francisco won Game 1 at home 72-62. North Texas responded with a 69-55 win in game 2. The Mean Green were a similar 3.5-point home favorite in Game 2 and I just don't see any reason not to back North Texas in the rubber match at home. San Fran is just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games, while the Mean Green are now 9-2 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games. Take North Texas! |
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03-30-18 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +144 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 33 m | Show | |
3* MLB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Toronto + I like the value here with the Blue Jays as a decently priced home dog against the Yankees on Friday. Toronto lost the opener on Thursday 1-6. The Blue Jays offense couldn't get anything going against Severino and ended up totaling just 2 hits on the game. Look for a much more productive day at the plate in Game 2 for Toronto, as this time they will be going up against Masahiro Tanaka, who went 0-3 with a 7.24 ERA in 4 spring starts. Tanaka was also not nearly as good on the road as he was at home in 2017. He had a 4.36 ERA overall with a 6.25 ERA and 1.455 WHIP in 16 road starts. The Yankees offense is loaded, but they got 2 homers from Stanton yesterday and only managed 6 runs. I look for some regression here for the Bronx Bombers against Aaron Sanchez, who showed well this spring and looked a lot more like the guy who led the AL in ERA in 2016. Sanchez also has a strong history against the Yankees, posting a 2.40 ERA in 13 outings against them. Take Toronto! |
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03-30-18 | Bulls v. Magic UNDER 212.5 | 90-82 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Bulls/Magic UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Friday's NBA action that has the Bulls visiting the Magic. Both of these teams clearly have no interest in winning down the stretch and the offensive output has been atrocious for both sides. Chicago is averaging just 96 ppg over their last 5 and haven't score more than 105 in each of their last 6. It's been just as ugly offensively for the Magic, who are averaging just 95.2 ppg over their last 5 and haven't scored more than 105 in each of their last 6. The reason we are seeing such a high total is these two haven't been the best on the defensive side of the ball down the stretch, but I think if anything that's creating the value here, as there's just not enough offensive fire-power on either side for the total to be this high. UNDER is 14-6 in the Magic's last 20 home games with a total of 210 to 219.5. UNDER is also 12-4 in their last 16 when playing with double-revenge and a perfect 8-0 in the Bulls last 8 vs a team with a losing record. Take the UNDER! |
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03-29-18 | Wizards +1 v. Pistons | 92-103 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Wizards + I like the value here with Washington at basically a pick'em on the road against the Pistons tonight. The Wizards snapped a 3-game skid with a convincing 116-106 win at home over the Spurs on Tuesday. It wasn't even as close as the final score would indicate, as Washington had a 22-point lead going into the 4th quarter. The Wizards are pretty safe in terms of making the playoffs, but have yet to clinch a spot, so I expect them to come out and play extremely hard until they do just that. Detroit has kept their slim playoff hopes alive by winning 4 of their last 5, but there chances of making it are still pretty slim, as they trail 8th place Milwaukee by 5-games with just 8 to play. What is getting overlooked with the Pistons strong play of late is it's come against bad teams. Their 4 wins during their 4-1 stretch have come against the likes of the Kings, Suns, Bulls and Lakers. I just don't trust this team at all against good teams and will gladly take my chances here with the Wizards at this price. Take Washington! |
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03-29-18 | Penn State v. Utah +4.5 | 82-66 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB 'NIT' Championship Game NO-BRAINER on Utah + I like the value here with the Utes as a decently priced dog in Thursday's NIT Championship Game against Penn State. Utah hasn't just caught fire in the NIT, this is a team that really turned a corner in the final month and a half of the regular-season. The Utes went 99-3 over their final 12 games. They would lose their only game in the Pac-12 Tournament, but it could have easily went their way, as they fell 66-68 to Oregon. They picked right up where they left off and have been a force in the NIT. They won by 9 at St Mary's to get to New York and won by 5 as a 2-point dog in the semifinals Tuesday against WKU. Penn State has won 5 of 6, but I just don't see a big enough gap that the Nittany Lions should be favored by nearly 5-points. If anything, this should be closer to a pick'em, making this an easy play for me. Take Utah! |
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03-29-18 | Brewers -109 v. Padres | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 11 m | Show |
5* MLB Opening Day GAME OF THE YEAR on Brewers I love the value here with Milwaukee as a short road favorite against the Padres on Opening Day. The Brewers were one of the big surprises of last year, as they gave the Cubs all they nearly dethroned the Cubs in the NL Central. Milwaukee got even better in the offseason, especially on offense, where they added the likes of Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. This should be an explosive offense and I just don't think they are getting near enough respect here against a mediocre Padres team. Not only do the Brewers have the more potent lineup, but they should have the edge on the mound in this one. Milwaukee will send out Chase Anderson, who quietly had a great 2017 season. Anderson went 12-4 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.090 WHIP in 25 starts. Those are Cy Young worthy numbers, yet no one talks about him being one of the top NL starters. San Diego counters with Clayton Richard, who was 8-15 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.515 WHIP in 32 starts. Richard is also just 3-4 with a 5.79 ERA in 9 career starts against the Brewers. Take Milwaukee! |
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03-28-18 | Celtics v. Jazz OVER 193 | 97-94 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
3* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Jazz OVER I like the value here with the OVER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Jazz hosting the Celtics. These are two strong defensive teams, but I just feel the number has been adjusted too much here because of all the injuries for Boston. The thing is the Celtics are a deeper team than they get credit for and have scored 100+ in each of their last 4 games. Utah just held the Warriors to 91 points in their last game, but that was against a Golden State team that was missing all their star players. Prior to that the Jazz had given up 124 to the Spurs and 112 to the Mavs. At the same time, Utah has scored 110 in each of their last 3 games. I just think the total is too low here. OVER is 7-1-1 in the Celtics last 9 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. OVER is also 8-2 in Utah's last 10 vs a team with a winning record. Take the OVER! |
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03-28-18 | Blazers v. Grizzlies OVER 202 | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Grizzlies OVER I like the value here with the OVER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Grizzlies hosting the Blazers. This is a very low total for a game involving the Blazers, who have really been an offensive force for the last month and a half. You have to go back to a Feb. 11 game at home against the Jazz to find the last time Portland failed to reach 100 points in a game. They have gone under in each of their last two games, but keep in mind those were both against teams they were competing against for playoff spots in the Thunder and Pelicans. The most recent was last night's game at New Orleans. The key here is I don't see the Blazers being 100% locked in on the defensive side of the ball in this one. Not only are they going to be dealing with tired legs, playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and 3rd in 4 nights, but they aren't going to feel like they have to play their best to beat a team like Memphis. The Grizzlies aren't a great offensive team, but did just put up 101 in a shocking win at Minnesota and have eclipsed the century mark in 6 of their last 8 games. OVER is 14-3 in the Blazers last 17 after attempting 90+ shots in 2 straight games and 6-1 when playing on no rest after the starters logged 160+ minutes. Take the OVER! |
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03-28-18 | Hawks v. Wolves OVER 217.5 | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on T-Wolves/Hawks OVER I like the value here with the OVER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Timberwolves hosting the Hawks. Last time out we saw Minnesota suffer a shocking 93-101 home loss to the Grizzlies as a 13-point favorite. The offense was to blame for the defeat, as there's no excuse for scoring 93 points against a tanking Memphis team. The shots simply weren't falling for Minnesota, who hit on just 41.8% of their attempts. That snapped a streak of 9 straight games where the Timberwolves had scored at least 100 points. I think we see a big bounce back performance from Minnesota offensively in this one. Atlanta is in full on tank mode and I just don't see the Hawks being interested at all at playing defense in this game. They are coming off two much bigger games at Golden State and Houston and will be playing the final game of a 6-game road trip. Atlanta allowed 118 to the Rockets in their last game and have allowed 118 or more in 5 of their last 8 games. OVER is 29-16 in the Timberwolves last 45 home games with a total set between 210 and 219.5, 21-9 in their last 30 off an upset loss as a favorite and 8-1 in their last 9 off a home loss. Take the OVER! |
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03-28-18 | Illinois-Chicago +6.5 v. Liberty | Top | 67-51 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
5* NCAAB 'CIT' Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Illinois Chicago + I like the value here with Illinois-Chicago in Wednesday's matchup against Liberty in the semifinals of the CIT. I just feel like UIC isn't getting near enough respect here and I think a lot of that has to do with the fact that they are without leading scorer Dikembe Dixon. He didn't play in either of their first two games in this tournament and they won by 23 as a mere 5-point favorite against St Francis-PA and followed that up with a 83-81 win at Austin Peay as a 4-point dog. UIC put up 80+ in both wins and have now scored 75 or more in 10 of their last 11. Liberty put up 84 in their most recent game against Central Michigan, but that was more of a result of them taking advantage of a bad Chippewas defense. They also shot lights out, hitting on 56% of their attempts. Prior to that Liberty had eclipsed 70 points just once in their previous 7 games. UIC is allowing just 72.6 ppg on the season and have held opponents to 40.7% from the field. Keep in mind UIC played the much tougher schedule this season. I actually think this should be closer to a pick'em. Take Illinois-Chicago! |
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03-27-18 | Pacers -4.5 v. Warriors | Top | 92-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Pacers - I love the value here with the Pacers here as a short road favorite against the Warriors. Golden State will be without Durant, Curry and Thompson for this game and have little to nothing to play for down the stretch. The Warriors aren't catching Houston for the No. 1 spot and are all but a lock to take home the No. 2 spot, as they need just 1 more win or 1 more Blazers loss to make it official. We saw a similar scenario play out in their last game at home against the Jazz and they were no match for Utah in a 19-point loss. I think we could easily see Indiana win here by double-digits. The Pacers clinched a playoff spot in their last game, but still have plenty to play for as they are just 1.5-games behind the Cavs for 3rd and a mere 4-games ahead of Miami for 8th in the east. Pacers are 23-11 ATS as a favorite this season and the Warriors are a mere 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games. Golden State has also failed to cover each of their last 6 games vs a team with a winning record. Take Indiana! |
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03-27-18 | Mavs v. Kings OVER 201.5 | 103-97 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Mavs/Kings OVER I like the value here with the OVER in Tuesday's NBA action that has a couple of bottom feeders in the Mavs and Kings facing off in Sacramento. There's zero reason for either of these teams to get up for this game and that should result in very little defense being played by either side. That would be nothing new for the Mavs, who come in giving up 114.4 ppg over their last 5. The Kings have gone UNDER in 3 straight and 4 of 5, but I see these two having no problem going over the small mark set by the books in this one. These two teams last played in February and combined for 223 points with a total of 205.5. I think we see a similar output here, as this flies over the number. Take the OVER! |
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03-26-18 | North Texas v. San Francisco -3.5 | 62-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB 'CBI Championship' ANNIHILATOR on San Fran - I like the value here with the Dons laying a short number at home against the Mean Green. North Texas has had the more impressive run to the CBI Championship Series, but I think it has them overvalued here on the road. San Francisco is a quality team that has played it's best basketball at home, where they are 15-6 on the season. The other big key here is defense and that's what I believe will be the difference in this one. North Texas has put up 90 or more in all 3 of their wins in this Tournament. Those all came against some bad defensive teams. San Francisco has allowed 68, 73 and 62 in their 3 games in the CBI and are only giving up 66.2 ppg at home, where they are also holding opponents to just 41.9% shooting. North Texas is just 8-19 ATS in their last 27 road games after scoring 75 or more points in 3 straight games. Take San Francisco! |
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03-26-18 | Nuggets v. 76ers UNDER 226 | 104-123 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Nuggets UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's NBA action that has the 76ers hosting the Nuggets. After scoring 135 or more in back-to-back games, the Nuggets managed just 108 in their most recent game and I look for them to struggle to put up a big number here on the road against a 76ers team that is only giving up 103.1 ppg at home. I also don't see Philadelphia putting up a big number, as we should get a max effort here defensively from the Nuggets, who simply can't afford a loss given their current standings in the Western Conference playoff race and they should have some fresh legs having had the last 2 days off. Adding to all of this is a couple of great systems. UNDER is 46-13 (78%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 220 or more with one team having won at least 2 straight and the opponent having won 3 or more games. UNDER is also 41-13 (76%) when you have a total of 210 or more in the month of March with the home team working on a 4 or more game winning streak. Take the UNDER! |
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03-25-18 | Heat v. Pacers UNDER 207 | 107-113 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
3* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Heat UNDER I like the value with the UNDER in Sunday's NBA action that has the Pacers hosting the Heat. This is a big game for both teams, as each is trying to position themselves for the postseason. Indiana is just a 1/2-game back of the 76ers for the No. 4 spot, while the Heat are just a 1/2-game ahead of the Bucks for the 8th and final spot. I expect a big effort from both sides on the defensive end and for this to go well below the number set by the books. UNDER is 18-8 in the Heat's last 26 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. UNDER is also 7-0 in the Pacers last 7 home games and 10-1 in their last 11 games vs a team from the Eastern Conference. Take the UNDER! |
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03-25-18 | Spurs v. Bucks OVER 203.5 | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Spurs/Bucks OVER I like the value here with the OVER in Sunday's NBA action that has the Spurs visiting the Bucks. The OVER has cashed in each of Milwaukee's last 7 games. Every one of those games saw a combined score of at least 123. I know the Spurs are a great defensive team, but they did just allow 120 at home to the Jazz in their last game, which saw a combined score of 244. I just think there's too much value here to pass up with this total sitting where it is. OVER is 12-2 in the Bucks last 14 games after playing two straight games with a combined score of 215 or more and 10-1 in their last 11 after going OVER the total in 4 or more consecutive games. Take the OVER! |
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03-25-18 | Texas Tech +6.5 v. Villanova | 59-71 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB 'Elite 8' ATS ANNIHILATOR on Texas Tech + I like the value here with the Red Raiders as a decently priced underdog against Villanova. Texas Tech continued their impressive run through the tournament with a 78-65 win over Purdue and this is simply a different team when Keenan Evans is healthy. Had he not been hurt late in the regular season, the Red Raiders may have very well won the Big 12 title. When Evans has been on the floor, Texas Tech has played like one of the best teams in the country. I think the fact that Villanova has won and covered all 3 of their games and will be the popular public side, has this line a lot higher than it should be. Keep in mind West Virginia was only a 5.5-point dog in the previous round and this Texas Tech team is more talented than the Mountaineers and arguably the best defensive team the Wildcats will have seen to this point in the tournament. I don't think it's out of the question that the Red Raiders can win this one one outright. Take Texas Tech! |
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03-24-18 | Florida State +5 v. Michigan | 54-58 | Win | 100 | 31 h 48 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB 'Elite 8' VEGAS INSIDER on Florida State + I like the value here with the Seminoles as a decently priced underdog in Saturday's Elite 8 action against Michigan. Both of these teams come in off impressive wins. The Wolverines cruised to a 99-72 win over Texas A&M, while Florida State made easy work of Gonzaga in a 75-60 win. The Seminoles have now knocked off Xavier and Gonzaga in back-to-back games, yet no one is giving this team much of a chance to beat Michigan. I think that's a big mistake and my numbers suggest this should be closer to a pick'em, making this an easy play for me on Florida State at this price. This is a situation in which the Seminoles have absolutely thrived at the ticket window. FSU is 20-5 ATS in their last 25 as a neutral court dog of 6 points or less. They are also working on a 10-2 ATS run over their last 12 non-confernece games. Take Florida State! |
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03-24-18 | Wolves v. 76ers UNDER 222 | 108-120 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 51 m | Show | |
3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Wolves UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's NBA action that has the 76ers hosting the Timberwolves. Both teams have put up some big numbers of late. Minnesota has scored 120+ in each of their last 2 games, while Philadelphia has scored 118 or more in 4 of their last 5. I believe we are seeing an inflated number because of this and there's simply too much value to pass up. UNDER is 14-4 in the 76ers last 18 games against an above average, but not elite team, that's won between 51% and 60% of their games in the 2nd half of the season. UNDER is also 10-1 in Philadelphia's last 11 games in the 2nd half vs teams who average 110 or more ppg. Adding to all of this is a great system in play. The UNDER is 40-11 (78%) in the month of March when you have a team on at least a 4-game winning streak and a total at or above 210 points. |
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03-23-18 | Heat +6.5 v. Thunder | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Heat + I like the value here with Miami catching what I feel is a big number on the road against the Thunder. The Heat look to be safely in the playoffs. While they sit 7th in the standings, they are 7-games up on 9th place Detroit with only 10 games to play. At the same time, they are only 2.5-games back of the 76ers for 4th place and home court advantage in the first round. The Heat come in having won 3 straight and are 9-4 in their last 13 overall. For whatever reason this team doesn't get any love from the public and I think it has them way undervalued here against a very public team in OKC. The Thunder need a win just as bad, but this is more evenly matched than most people realize. I also think this is a tough spot for Oklahoma City off that epic collapse in the finals minutes of Tuesday's 99-100 loss at Boston. Take Miami! |
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03-23-18 | West Virginia v. Villanova UNDER 153 | Top | 78-90 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 25 m | Show |
5* NCAAB 'Sweet 16' NO LIMIT Top Play on Villanova UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Friday's Sweet 16 action that has No. 1 seed Villanova taking on No. 5 seed West Virginia. Both of these teams have been impressive on the offensive side of the ball. The Mountaineers put up 85 on Murray State and 94 against Marshall. As for the Wildcats, they hung 87 on Radford and 81 on Alabama. I believe those high outputs have created some great value here with the UNDER. Not to say these aren't strong offensive teams, I just feel the level of competition played a big role in those high offensive outputs. I expect to see both sides struggle to find a rhythm offensively in this one. While Villanova has the guards to handle the West Virginia pressure, it's likely to still cause some problems just because they haven't really played against it. The Mountaineers simply aren't going to shoot 50% from the field against this Villanova defense like they did in the first two rounds. Note that UNDER is 8-2-1 in the Mountaineers last 11 games after they scored 90 or more points. The UNDER is also 12-3 in West Virginia's last 15 as an underdog and 9-1 in their last 10 vs teams that average 84 or more points/game. Take the UNDER! |
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03-22-18 | Kansas State v. Kentucky OVER 137 | 61-58 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER No Analysis on late releases |
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03-22-18 | Lakers +4 v. Pelicans | 125-128 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Lakers + I like the value here with the Lakers as a short road dog against the Pelicans on Thursday. This is simply a play against New Orleans, who I just don't see having enough left in the tank to win this game. The Pelicans had to play a make-up game yesterday against the Pacers. They also had to play on Tueday at home against the Mavs, so this will be their 3rd game in 3 days. It's also their 5th game in the last 6 days. While they were able to knock off Indiana, they shot just 43% from the field in the victory and the shooting could get even worse tonight. Lakers have lost 3 straight, but are not throwing in the towel just yet and I look for a big effort here to get back in the win column. Note that while the Pelicans are in as bad a rest situation as you will find, Los Angeles has had the last 3 days off. I don't care how much better the other team is, you give a team 3 days off against a team that is playing their 5th game in 6 days and 3rd in 3 days and the team with the rest edge will win the majority of the time. Take the Lakers! |
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03-22-18 | Lakers v. Pelicans OVER 229 | 125-128 | Win | 100 | 1 h 52 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER No Analysis on late releases |
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03-22-18 | Texas A&M v. Michigan OVER 134.5 | Top | 72-99 | Win | 100 | 53 h 10 m | Show |
5* NCAAB 'Sweet 16' VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on A&M/Michigan OVER I like the value here with the OVER in Thursday's Sweet 16 matchup between Texas A&M and Michigan. The Wolverines came out flat offensively in their first round game against Montana (didn't score in first 4 minutes, trailed 10-0), which was to be expected after the long layoff between that game and the Big Ten Tournament. They then were matched up with an elite Houston defense in the Round of 32 and ended up needing a last-second 3-pointer to pull out a 64-63 win. Prior to these two Tournament games, Michigan had scored 75+ in each of their previous 5 games and I look for the offense to return to form here against Texas A&M. The Aggies limited UNC to just 65 points and 33.3% shooting, but put up 86 on the Tar Heels. Simply put this total has been set too low given the talent offensively on both sides. OVER is 13-4 in Michigan's last 17 road games after allowing 30 points or less in the 1st half of each of their last 2 games and 9-2 in their last 11 road games after playing 2 straight as a favorite. OVER is also 9-2 in the Wolverines last 11 vs a team that is shooting 45% or better from the field at least 15 games into the season and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 on the road vs teams who average 17 or fewer fouls/game. Take the OVER! |
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03-21-18 | Hornets v. Nets OVER 222.5 | 111-105 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
3* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Nets OVER I like the value here with the OVER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Nets hosting the Hornets. While Charlotte managed just 94 points in their last game at the 76ers, this is a team that had been rolling offensively before that contest. The Hornets were averaging 115.3 ppg over their previous 7 games. I think they have no problem here getting back on track offensively against the Nets, who have allowed 111 or more points in 9 of their last 10 games. Brooklyn should also be in store for a big game offensively. The Hornets have allowed at least 108 points in each of their last 7 games, and have given up 115 or more in 6 of those 7. Brooklyn has scored 114 or more in 3 straight games and keep mind they put up 125 at Charlotte earlier this month (3/8) in a game that saw a combined 236 points. While the books have adjusted some (total was 217 in the previous meeting), I think these two fly over the number again. Take the OVER! |
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03-20-18 | Rockets v. Blazers OVER 214.5 | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 18 h 35 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Rockets/Blazers OVER I like the value here with the OVER in Tuesday's showdown between the Rockets and Blazers. These are the two hottest teams in the NBA right now. Houston has won 5 straight and are 22-1 in their last 23 games, while Portland enters on a 13-game winning streak. While both are better defensively than they get credit for, I just think there's too much offensive fire-power for them to not reach at least 220 points. Houston is averaging 113.5 ppg on the season and the Blazers are scoring 115 ppg over their last 5. These two teams have played twice already this season. They combined for 141 in the first meeting at Portland and 133 in the matchup at Houston. OVER is 18-4 in the Blazers last 22 games in the 2nd half of the season vs elite teams that are outscoring opponents by 6+ points/game. OVER is also 15-5 in their last 20 in the 2nd half vs teams who average 110+ ppg. OVER is also 23-9 in the Rockets last 32 games vs a team with a winning record. Take the OVER! |
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03-19-18 | Grizzlies v. Nets UNDER 212 | 115-118 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Grizzlies/Nets UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's NBA action that has the Grizzlies visiting the Nets. While Brooklyn is a team built to go over the total with a respectable offense and bad defense, Memphis is one of the worst teams in the league and come in averaging a mere 97.8 ppg on the season. The Grizzlies were able to snap a 19-game losing streak in their last game and did so by limiting the Nuggets to just 94 points. That's now two straight games where they have really played well defensively. The held the Bulls to just 43.7% shooting in their previous game. I look for another strong effort here, as they will try to snap a 14-game road losing streak. Note these two teams combined for a whopping 186 points in their only previous meeting this season. Brooklyn also won their last game and that's important to note, as the UNDER is 12-2 in the NEts last 14 home games after a win. UNDER is also 12-1 in the Grizzlies last 13 games with a total set between 210 and 219.5. Take the UNDER! |
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03-18-18 | Maryland-Baltimore County +10.5 v. Kansas State | 43-50 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
3* NCAA Tournament ATS HEAVY HITTER on UMBC + I like the value here with UMBC as a double-digit dog in their attempt to keep this incredible Cinderella story going. The Retrievers pulled off the biggest upset in NCAA Tournament history, as they became the first ever No. 16 seed to take down a No. 1 seed. What's remarkable is they didn't just win on a miracle 3-pointer at the buzzer, they absolutely dominated the No. 1 overall seed in a 20-point win. There is some concern here with UMBC suffering a letdown off that massive upset, but I think there's more fight in this team and wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. This Kansas State team isn't anything special and could be without one of their best players in Dean Wade, who leads the team in scoring at 16.5 ppg. Wade is questionable with a foot injury and even if he does play, he doesn't figure to be at 100%. Take UMBC! |
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03-18-18 | Clemson v. Auburn -1 | Top | 84-53 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
5* NCAA Tourn Rd of 32 GAME OF THE YEAR on Auburn - I love the value here with Auburn at basically a pick'em against Clemson in Sunday's Round of 32 action out of the Midwest Region. Auburn won their opener 62-58 over Charleston. That was a lot closer than most expected, as they were a 9.5-point favorite, but that's a much better Charleston team than most people realize. It didn't help that Auburn shot about as poor as they could, hitting just 35.6% from the field. Clemson had a little easier time in their first game, as they beat New Mexico State 79-68 behind a red-hot 55.9% shooting. I just think the contrasting victories have created some big time value here with Auburn. I look for Clemson to have a much tougher time offensively against this Auburn defense, while I expect Auburn to be much more efficient from the offensive side of the ball. Clemson hasn't exactly excelled in this spot. They are just 8-19 ATS in their last 27 when playing on the road in their 2nd game in a week. Take Auburn! |
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03-18-18 | Nevada v. Cincinnati OVER 136.5 | Top | 75-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
5* NCAA Tournament NO LIMIT Top Play on Cincy OVER I love the value here with the OVER in Sunday's Round of 32 action that has Nevada taking on Cincinnati. It's no secret that the Bearcats are a great defensive team and I think that is definitely playing into this low number. The key here is the matchup and unfamiliarity with this explosive Nevada offense, which features 3 big time offensive players in Jordan Caroline and the Martin twins. This is a team that scores 83.2 ppg and doesn't play at a really fast tempo, which speaks to how efficient they are. The other big key is they don't turn the ball over and shoot close to 40% from behind the 3-point line. While I could see the Bearcats struggling to contain this Nevada offense, they should be able to put up a big number of their own against this Wolf Pack defense. Nevada hasn't allowed fewer than 74 points in each of their last 6 games. OVER is 5-1 in the Wolf Pack's last 6 non-confernece games, and 8-2 in their last 10 games played on a neutral site. OVER is also 33-15 in Nevada's last 48 vs great defensive teams that are giving up 64 or fewer points/game at least 15 games into the season. Take the OVER! |
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03-18-18 | Oregon v. Marquette UNDER 153.5 | 92-101 | Loss | -103 | 43 h 38 m | Show | |
3* NIT Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Oregon/Marquette UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's NIT action that has Marquette hosting Oregon. The Ducks come in off a 99-86 win over Rider in the opening round of the NIT. That game flew over the total of 159 and I think it has the number here inflated. The Golden Eagles are a team that averages 80.8 ppg, but aren't in great form right now, as they have scored 72 or fewer in each of their last 3 games. While Oregon gave up 86 to Rider, the Ducks had held each of their previous 4 opponents to 74 or less and I expect a big effort here defensively on the road. Keep in mind that both teams can score well into the 70s and we can still cash a winning ticket with this high number. UNDER is 9-2 in the Ducks last 11 off a home win by 10 or more points, 15-5 in their last 20 road games off a home game and 7-1 in their last 8 after allowing 80 or more points. UNDER is also 16-5 in Marquette's last 21 home games with a total in the 150's. Take the UNDER! |
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03-17-18 | Loyola-Chicago +5.5 v. Tennessee | 63-62 | Win | 100 | 22 h 53 m | Show | |
4* NCAA Tournament Vegas INSIDER on Loyola + I like the value here with the Ramblers as a decently priced dog against the Volunteers, as I think there's a decent chance they win this game outright. A lot of people simply don't realize just how good this Loyola-Chicago team is. Not only because of the small conference they play in, but they haven't really been in this spot before. One of the reasons that Tennessee had such a great season is the defense they played, but the Ramblers are every bit as good on that side of the ball. Loyola-Chicago only gave up 62.7 ppg on the season and were right on point, limiting the Hurricanes to 62 points in the first round. They forced Miami into 16 turnovers and did an excellent job keeping them off the line, as the Hurricanes only attempted 13 free throws. The other big key here is the Ramblers can stroke it from long-distance. They shot 40% as a team from behind the 3-point line and have 5 different players who shoot 38% or better. I simply trust their offense more in this one and I feel this line is inflated by a good 3-4 points because of how good the Vols looked in their opener with Wright State. Take Loyola-Chicago! |
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03-17-18 | Buffalo +6 v. Kentucky | 75-95 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
3* NCAA Tournament Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Buffalo + I like the value here with the Bulls catching a decent number against the Wildcats. Buffalo pulled off a big upset in the first round and did so in impressive fashion. The Bulls defeated Arizona 89-68 as a 9-point dog. A lot of people credited the win more on how bad the Wildcats played and while they didn't play their best game, this Buffalo team is no joke. The Bulls have 3 dynamic scorers in Jeremy Harris (15.6 ppg), C.J. Massinburg (17.3 ppg) and Wes Clark (14.1 ppg). These 3 combined for 67 points and were 11 for 22 from long-distance. That 3-point shooting is a huge factor here, as Kentucky is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country and failed to make a single 3 in their win over Davidson in the first round. While the Wildcats will be able to score inside on the Bulls, trading 2 for 3 will allow Buffalo to keep this close and maybe even win outright. Take Buffalo! |
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03-17-18 | Penn State v. Notre Dame OVER 140 | 73-63 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 7 m | Show | |
4* NIT Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Penn State OVER I like the value here with the OVER in Saturday's NIT action that has Notre Dame facing off against Penn State. While Notre Dame put up 84 in their first NIT game against Hampton, the Nittany Lions played a very low-scoring game against Temple, which the won 63-57. I think that combined with the fact that the Irish only allowed 63 to Hampton has this number a lot lower than it should be. Penn State is a much better offensive team than they showed in their game against the Owls and should have a much easier time scoring here against the Irish. Keep in mind that Notre Dame allowed Duke to shoot 55.4% from the field in their final game of the ACC Tournament. The other key here is I don't see the Nittany Lions defense being able to slow down the Irish offense, which is averaging 82 ppg at home. Note the OVER is 14-4 over the last 2 seasons when Penn State is listed as a road dog and 8-1 in Notre Dame's last 9 home games as a favorite of 6 or less. Take the OVER! |
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03-16-18 | Florida State v. Missouri +1 | 67-54 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 18 m | Show | |
4* NCAA Tournament ATS NO-BRAINER on Missouri + I like the value here with the Tigers at basically a pick'em against the Seminoles in Friday's first round action out of the West Region. Missouri is one of the bigger wild card teams in the field, as Michael Porter Jr basically didn't play the entire season until the Tigers SEC Tournament game. He's a special talent and a for sure lottery pick in next year's NBA draft. He's the kind of player that can put a team on his back. To no surprise Porter Jr was a bit rusty in his first game back, but he certainly wasn't lacking any confidence, as he hoisted up 17 shots off the bench in just 23 minutes of playing time. I think that was huge for the Tigers to get a warm-up game with Porter Jr. in the mix. They now have had a few days to put together a game plan and I think they are going to have their way with Florida State. The Seminoles have some nice pieces and were a solid team, but they aren't playing well down the stretch. FSU went just 4-6 over their final 10 games. I also don't love the matchup for the Seminoles. Florida State relies a lot on penetration to get their offense going and this Missouri team can lock you down defensively. The Tigers also are a great 3-point shooting team, which is huge given all the size and athleticism the Seminoles have inside. Take Missouri! |
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03-16-18 | Maryland-Baltimore County +22.5 v. Virginia | Top | 74-54 | Win | 100 | 81 h 8 m | Show |
5* NCAA Tournament No Limit TOP PLAY on UMBC + I love the value here with the Maryland-Baltimore Country catching a huge number against No. 1 overall seed Virginia. Most people probably didn't even know UMBC was a school and that unfamiliarity combined with the Cavaliers being ranked No. 1 overall will have the public backing Virginia. I think the books were well aware of this action and have inflated this line to where there's tremendous value with the underdog. You hear it all the time, great guard play is critical in the NCAA Tournament. Well the Retrievers are led by their backcourt of Jairus Lyles and K.J. Maura. Both of which are very quick off the dribble and have great instincts on defense. They create a lot of easy looks from deep with their penetration and generate a lot of steals on the defense, allowing UMBC to get out in transition. I know Virginia doesn't have a ton of holes, but I think the pressure of the Retrievers and the Cavaliers potentially not giving this team their full amount of respect with much bigger games looming, will allow UMBC to keep this game a lot closer than most expert. Take Maryland-Baltimore County! |
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03-16-18 | Nets v. 76ers UNDER 218.5 | 116-120 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
3* NBA Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Nets UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Friday's NBA action that has the 76ers hosting the Nets. These two division rivals have a history of playing lower scoring games than what the books expect. The UNDER is 11-3-2 in the last 16 meetings and 5-1-1 in the last 7 games played in Philadelphia. With how well the 76ers are playing overall an especially at home, there's a good chance this gets out of hand and blowouts typically aren't all that high-scoring. You really need both teams to put up a lot of points to go OVER a mark like this. The Nets just aren't clicking offensively right now, as they are shooting just 43.7% from the field in their last 5 and only average 99.7 ppg vs division opponents. UNDER is 11-2 in Philadelphia's last 13 home games when playing against a bad team like the Nets, who have won between 25% to 40% of their games. UNDER is also 22-9 in Brooklyn's last 31 after 3 straight games with a combined score of 215 or more and 17-7 in their last 24 when revenging a home loss of 10 or more points. |
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03-16-18 | Kansas State v. Creighton -1.5 | 69-59 | Loss | -108 | 78 h 28 m | Show | |
4* NCAA Tournament VEGAS INSIDER on Creighton - I like the value here with the Bluejays at basically a pick'em in Fridays' first round action out of the South Region. Bruce Weber did another masterful job at Kansas State this year, as many experts had them pegged near the basement of the Big 12 standings. Martin forces effort from his players on a nightly basis and that played a big part in the Wildcats regular-season success. The thing is, effort can only get you so far and we saw this team really struggle against the top tier teams in the Big 12. In fact, they were 0-7 against the likes of Kansas, West Virginia and Texas Tech. I think we are going to see a similar struggle for them against a very good Creighton team that is extremely efficient offensively and plays at a frantic pace. The Bluejays put up 84.3 ppg. K-State simply doesn't have the offensive fire-power to keep pace, as they really only have to legit scoring options in Dean Wade and Barry Brown. Take Creighton! |
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03-16-18 | Murray State +10 v. West Virginia | 68-85 | Loss | -115 | 76 h 53 m | Show | |
3* BEST BET on Murray State + I like the value here with the Racers catching double-digits against the Mountaineers in Friday's first round action out of the East Region. It's no secret that West Virginia is a tough team to prepare for in the NCAA Tournament, but I think Murray State has the pieces in place to handle the Mountaineers pressure. The Racers have two good ball handlers in their backcourt in Jonathan Stark and Demetrius Morant. The two combined to average 34.4 ppg and 10.3 apg. While they are great at sharing the ball on the offensive side of the ball, they were also one of the best teams in the country in forcing teams to beat them one-on-one. If they can keep from turning it over and not allowing the Mountaineers to get out in transition, this team can make it extremely hard for West Virginia to score. If the outside shot is falling for Murray State, they not only will keep this within the number, but they will have a legit shot at pulling off the upset. Take Murray State! |
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03-16-18 | Butler v. Arkansas UNDER 151.5 | 79-62 | Win | 100 | 75 h 45 m | Show | |
3* NCAA Tournament TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Butler UNDER I like the value with the UNDER in Friday's East Region action that has No. 7 Arkansas taking on No. 10 Butler. Those that just look at the numbers from the regular-season will think this is gong to be a high-scoring game. Both teams average right around 80 ppg and both are allowing on average in the high 70's. The thing is, the defensive intensity is taken to a different level in the NCAA Tournament and teams also simply don't shoot as well because of all the hype and pressure that comes with these games. The other thing is both offenses weren't exactly clicking down the stretch. While Arkansas put up 80 in a win over Florida in the SEC Tournament, that was the only time in their last 4 games they reached 70 points. Same thing with Butler, who scored 70 or fewer in 3 of their final 4 games. I think we get enough defense here to keep this well below the mark. Take the UNDER! |
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03-16-18 | Lipscomb v. North Carolina -20.5 | 66-84 | Loss | -106 | 3 h 5 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER |
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03-16-18 | Marshall +12 v. Wichita State | Top | 81-75 | Win | 100 | 91 h 39 m | Show |
5* NCAA Tournament Rd of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on Marshall + I love the value here with the Thundering Herd as a big dog against the Shockers in Friday's first round action out of the East Region. Marshall's head coach is Dan D'Antoni, who is the brother of Houston Rockets head coach Mike D'Antoni. As you might have guessed the two have similar philosophies on the offensive side and want to try and outscore teams by outshooting them from long-distance. It worked really well down the stretch for Marshall, who punched their ticket to the Big Dance by winning the C-USA Tournament. The Thundering Herd average 10-made 3-pointers a game and have 7 different players who shoot 33% or better from deep. That long-range attack helped them average 84.3 ppg. While Wichita State has the offensive fire-power to hang with Marshall and likely ultimately win this game, they are definitely on upset alert. That's because the Shockers aren't as good defensively as they have been in years past. One of their biggest weaknesses was defending the 3-point shot, making this a horrible matchup out of the gates. I think the Thundering Herd give them a scare and maybe win this one outright. Take Marshall! |
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03-16-18 | Marshall v. Wichita State UNDER 166.5 | 81-75 | Win | 100 | 73 h 4 m | Show | |
3* NCAA Tournament TOTAL MASSACRE on Marshall UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Friday's first round action out of the East Region that has Marshall taking on Wichita State. There's no denying that these are two explosive offensive teams. The betting public is going to simply look at the offensive numbers of these two teams and run to the window to take the OVER. The books are well aware of this and have certainly inflated this total to a price where I think the value is on the other side. One thing to keep in mind with teams like Wichita State and Marshall, who rely a lot on the 3-point shot, is that first game of the tournament can prove to be difficult for teams to shoot well. The defensive intensity is also at it's highest, so there's not going to be as many easy looks like their will be in the regular season. Note that Marshall has seen the UNDER cash in 23 of their last 31 games when they are up against a dominant rebounding team like Wichita State that's outrebounding opponents by 7+ boards/game. UNDER is also 15-5 in the Shockers last 20 games as a neutral court favorite and 16-5 in their last 21 tournament games overall. Take the UNDER! |
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03-15-18 | Buffalo +8.5 v. Arizona | 89-68 | Win | 100 | 18 h 30 m | Show | |
4* NCAA Tournament BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Buffalo + I like the value here with the Bulls catching a big number against the Wildcats. There's been plenty of talk about how Arizona got the shaft on their seed and I think it has a lot of people jumping on the Wildcats laying single-digits here. As good as Arizona is, this Buffalo team is no joke. The Bulls cruised to the MAC Tournament title, winning all 3 of their tournament games by double-digits. They also showed extremely well in non-conference against the likes of Cincinnati, Texas A&M, Syracuse and St Bonaventure. The Bulls are also 12-2 ATS in their last 12 neutral court games with a perfect 7-0 ATS record in their last 7 neutral site games as an underdog. Take Buffalo! |
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03-15-18 | Stephen F Austin +11.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 60-70 | Win | 100 | 72 h 44 m | Show |
5* NCAA Tournament VEGAS INSIDER on Stephen F Austin + I love the value here with the Lumberjacks catching double-digits against Texas Tech in Thursday's first round action out of the East Region. Stephen F. Austin has a lot of great qualities for success in the NCAA Tournament. The Lumberjacks have great depth and balance on the offensive side of the ball. They also bring the intensity on the defensive side of the ball and as a result led the nation in turnover percentage and steels. That pressure often leads to a lot of good looks on the offensive side of the ball, especially from long-range, where Stephen F. Austin is deadly from. As for Texas Tech, this is a team that really lost its mojo down the final leg of the season. The Red Raiders went just 2-5 over their final 7 games and the two wins could have easily been losses, as both came by 4-points or less. Rarely do you see a team that comes into the Big Dance struggling flip the switch and go on a deep run. If Texas Tech struggles with the pressure of the Lumberjacks, they not only aren't going to cover, but they may lose this game outright. Take Stephen F. Austin! |
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03-15-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Miami-FL -120 | 64-62 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
3* NCAA Tournament ATS HEAVY HITTER on Miami I like the value here with the Hurricanes on the money line, as the Ramblers continue to get a lot of love in your classic 12 vs a 5 upset. Miami has a lot more talent than people realize and are extremely athletic. Not to take anything away from Loyola-Chicago, but I just think they are going to have a really hard time against this Hurricanes team. I also don't think that Miami head coach Jim Larranaga gets near enough credit for how he can impact a tournament game. Larranaga is one of the best in the business at breaking down the Xs and Os and will have his team ready for anything the Ramblers throw at them. Take Miami! |
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03-15-18 | NC-Greensboro v. Gonzaga UNDER 136.5 | 64-68 | Win | 100 | 52 h 46 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Over/Under TOTAL DESTROYER on Gonzaga UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Thursday's first round action out of the West Region between No. 4 seed Gonzaga and No. 13 seed UNC-Greensboro. Gonzaga is an offensive juggernaut. The Bulldogs ranked 10th in the country in offensive efficiency while averaging 84.5 ppg. The problem here is I don't think Gonzaga is going to be able to put up a big number here against the Spartans. UNC-Greensboro is a team that is built around it's defense and will do whatever they can to slow down the pace of the game to take the other team out of their offensive rhythm. They know their only shot of pulling off the upset is to do exactly that and I just don't think there's going to be enough possessions to push this over the mark. Keep in mind Gonzaga is no slouch on the defensive side of the ball. They only gave up 67.1 ppg and Greensboro is not a very good offensive team. Take the UNDER! |
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03-15-18 | Wright State +13 v. Tennessee | 47-73 | Loss | -105 | 48 h 19 m | Show | |
3* NCAA Tournament ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Wright State + I like the value here with the Raiders catching double-digits against the Volunteers in Thursday's opening round action out of the South Region. Wright State got to the big dance behind one of the better defenses in the country. The Raiders ranked were just outside the top 50 in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are especially good at defending inside the arc behind big men Loudon Love and Parker Ernsthausen. With Tennessee also being an elite defensive team, points are going to be at premium, which only adds more value here with the Raiders at this price. Keep in mind the Volunteers aren't exactly an offensive juggernaut. A big reason for that is they don't have an elite guard who can create his own shot when needed. This is also a primarily a jump shooting team and if the shots aren't falling for the Vols they not only won't cover, but could lose this game outright. Take Wright State! |
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03-15-18 | Oklahoma +2 v. Rhode Island | 78-83 | Loss | -104 | 50 h 29 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Oklahoma + I like the value here with the Sooners as a dog against the Rams in Thursday's 1st round action out of the Midwest Region. There's been all kinds of talk about how Oklahoma didn't deserve to make the field of 68 due to their poor finish. I think the Sooners will use that as motivation and come out with a huge chip on their shoulder here. Rhode Island wasn't exactly playing great down the stretch either. The Rams were just 4-4 over their final 8 games, which included an ugly 30-point loss at home to St. Josephs. I know teams in the Big 12 seemed to figure out freshman sensation Trae Young, but let's not forget how dominant he was in non-conference play to start the year. Oklahoma has the best player on the court and I think the long break between their early exit in the Big 12 Tournament and this game will do wonders for the Sooners. Take Oklahoma! |
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03-14-18 | Boise State v. Washington OVER 147.5 | 77-74 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
4* NIT Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Washington OVER I like the value here with the OVER in Wednesday's late night NIT action that has Boise State taking on Washington. The Broncos defense really slipped down the stretch, as they allowed 79 ppg over their final 3 games. I know the Huskies aren't a great offensive team, but they should be able to put up a big number here at home against this defense. On the flip side of this, I don't think Washington will be able to slow down the Broncos attack, sending this one well over the mark set here by the books. OVER is 19-9 in the Huskies last 28 non-conference games and 9-1 in their last 10 when playing on 5 or 6 days of rest. Take the OVER! |
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03-14-18 | Mercer v. Grand Canyon -6.5 | 78-73 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
3* CBI No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Grand Canyon - I like the value here with the Antelopes laying what I think is a short number against the Bears in the opening round of the CBI Tournament. Grand Canyon won 22 games this season and were on a 5-game winning streak before getting knocked out of the WAC Tournament by regular-season champ New Mexico State. A huge factor here is the Antelopes get to host this game, as they went an impressive 16-2 at home this season. I think the fact that Mercer had won 8 straight before losing to Wofford in the Southern Tournament has them getting too much respect here. The Bears are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games, while the Antelopes have covered 5 of their last 6 games outside conference play. Take Grand Canyon! |
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03-14-18 | UT-Rio Grande Valley v. New Orleans -3.5 | Top | 74-77 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
5* CBI Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on New Orleans - I love the value here with the Privateers laying a short number against the Vaqueros in Wednesday's CBI action. Both of these teams finished the season poorly, but I still think New Orleans is the far superior team here. Looking back at non-conference play, we see both teams played at SMU. While both teams lost, the Privateers kept it respectable in a 13-point defeat, while the Vaqueros got annihilated by 31 points. The other big key here is UT-Rio Grande Valley was not good on the road and they come in a mere 1-9-1 ATS over the last 11 road games. They are also 1-6 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games The Privateers were a solid 9-3 on their home court and are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 off a SU loss by more than 20 points (lost by 22 to Sam Houston St in conference tournament). Take New Orleans! |
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03-14-18 | Bucks -8 v. Magic | 117-126 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
4* NBA Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on Bucks - I like the value here with Milwaukee laying single digits on the road against the Magic on Wednesday. The Bucks have made easy work of sub-par teams in their last two games, winning 120-112 at home over the Knicks and 121-103 at Memphis. I look for more of the same here against Orlando, who has lost 5 straight and are just 2-12 in their last 14 overall. Last time out the Magic didn't even look like they had any interest playing, as they scored just 72 points in a 36-point loss at the Spurs. It was the 3rd time in their last 5 games that they scored fewer than 90 points. Orlando is a mere 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games when they come in having lost at least 5 of their last 7, while the Bucks are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games when they have won 2 of their last 3 and are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team with a losing home record. Take Milwaukee! |
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03-13-18 | North Carolina-Asheville +17.5 v. USC | 98-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Late Night ATS ANNIHILATOR on Asheville + I really like the value here with the Bulldogs catching a big number against USC in the opening round of the NIT. This is all about motivation and I just have a hard time seeing the Trojans being all that excited about even playing in this tournament. USC had their eyes set on the NCAA Tournament and had to feel like they did enough to make it. They won 23 games, finished 2nd in the Pac-12 regular-season standings and reached the Pac-12 Tournament title game. Asking this team to get up for this game is asking a lot, especially given the opponent. As for UNC-Asheville, they are going to relish in the opportunity to showcase their talents against a Power 5 opponent. The Bulldogs have two dynamic scorers to help them at least keep this within the number in Ahmad Thomas and Marcio Teague, who both average right around 16.5 ppg. The other big key here is the Trojans head into the NIT at less than 100%. Bennie Boatwright was lost for the season back in the middle of February and leading scorer Chimezie Metu is questionable for this game because of rest, which speaks volumes to how little this game means to this team. Take Asheville! |
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03-13-18 | Boston College v. Western Kentucky -4.5 | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
4* NIT Vegas ATS NO-BRAINER on Western Kentucky - I like the value here with the Hilltoppers laying a short number against the Eagles. The betting public is all over BC, as they come from the much stronger conference, but this Western Kentucky team is no joke. The Hilltoppers went 14-4 in a strong C-USA and just missed out on an automatic bid, losing to Marshall in the C-USA Tournament title game. Western Kentucky did more than prove they can hang with the big boys in non-conference play. They knocked off Purdue and SMU in back-to-back games and only lost by 8 to Villanova. The fact that the Hilltoppers are the better seed and get to host this game is also a huge factor in why I like them to win and cover. Western Kentucky was 13-3 at home this season, while the Eagles were a dreadful 5-12 away from their home court. Hilltoppers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games. Take Western Kentucky! |
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03-13-18 | Wolves v. Wizards -3.5 | 116-111 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Wizards - I like the value here with the Wizards laying a short number at home against the Timberwolves. This is an ideal spot to jump on Washington after an ugly 27-point loss at Miami in their last game. It's also a good spot to go against Minnesota, who is coming off two huge home games against the Celtics and Warriors. The Timberwolves were able to rebound from a loss to Boston with a 109-103 upset win over Golden State in their last game, but that came against a short-handed Warriors team. Minnesota hasn't exactly been playing well away from home. The Timberwolves are just 1-9 in their last 10 away from home and the lone win was against the Kings. Minnesota has gone just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 away from home and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win. Wizards are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 off a SU loss by more than 10 points and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when they come in having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. Take Washington! |
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03-13-18 | Wagner +14.5 v. Baylor | 59-80 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
4* NIT No Doubt ATS HEAVY HITTER ON Wagner + I like the value here with the Seahawks as a big double-digit dog against the Bears in Tuesday's first round action of the NIT. Baylor received a No. 1 seed, but I just don't think they are going to be all that motivated to play in the NIT. Keep in mind this was one of the last few teams left out of the Big Dance. A big reason they were left out is they went just 1-4 over their final 5 games. Not playing well and no real motivation are two keys to a team like Baylor getting knocked off by a lessor opponent in Wagner. While the Seahawks lost in the NEC finals to miss out on a trip to the NCAA Tournament, these small conference schools have a much easier time putting that disappointment behind them and focus on the opportunity to showcase their talents against some quality opponents. Look for the Seahawks to come out swinging and give the Bears all they can handle. Take Wagner! |
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03-12-18 | Spurs v. Rockets OVER 209 | 93-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
3* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Spurs OVER I like the value with the OVER in Monday's NBA action that has the Rockets hosting the Spurs. Houston is coming off a couple of sub-par offensive showings in their last two games to close out a 4-game road trip, but still managed to score 105 in both of those games. They also played their last game without James Harden. With Harden expected back in the lineup tonight, I think we see the Rockets return to form and put up a big number here on a Spurs team that is struggling. San Antonio has lost 4 of 5 and are just 2-8 in their last 10 games. They are giving up 110 ppg over their last 5. They did score just 94 in their last game against OKC, but had scored 100 or more in each of their previous 7 games. I think they get to at least the century mark here, which should push this well over the mark. Take the OVER! |
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03-12-18 | Central Michigan v. IUPU Ft Wayne OVER 160 | 94-89 | Win | 100 | 1 h 10 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on Central Michigan OVER I like the value here with the OVER in Monday's early CIT action that has Fort Wayne hosting Central Michigan. The Mastodons averaged 82.1 ppg and were even better at home, where they put up 89.5 ppg. I don't think the Chippewas will be able to slow down this attack. Central Michigan wasn't a great defensive team and allowed 77.7 ppg away from home. The key here is the Chippewas have the offensive fire-power to keep pace with the Mastodons and push this well over the mark set by the books. Central Michigan closed out the season averaging 78.0 ppg over their last 5 contests. Fort Wayne allowed 83.8 ppg over their final 5 games. The OVER is a perfect 8-0 in the Mastodons last 8 games and 7-1 in the Chippewas last 8 games. OVER is 9-2 in Central Michigan's last 11 road games with a line and 8-1 as an underdog this season. OVER is also 14-4 in Fort Wayne's last 18 as a home favorite and 7-1 in their last 8 after scoring 75+ in 3 straight games. Take the OVER! |
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03-11-18 | Pacers +7 v. Celtics | 99-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
3* NBA Undervalued UNDERDOG on Pacers + I like the value here with Indiana as a pretty big road dog here against the Celtics. Boston comes in off an impressive 117-109 win at Minnesota and are now 6-1 SU and 6-1 ATS since returning from the All-Star break. I simply think it has the Celtics overvalued here and we can see how much this line has been inflated by noting that Boston was just a 4-point home favorite the last time these two teams played on Feb. 9th. The Celtics also suffered a big blow in their win over the Timberwolves. Jaylen Brown suffered a concussion and will be out for a while. While Boston has a pretty balanced lineup, Brown is a big piece to replace. He's second on the team in scoring at 14.1 ppg and had really been playing well before the injury. The Pacers for whatever reason continue to not get the respect they deserve. Indiana is just a 1/2 game back of Cleveland for the 3rd best record in the east and have been playing very well of late, going 8-3 in their last 11 games. I not only see them keeping this within the number, but could see them win this one outright. Take Indiana! |
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03-11-18 | Jazz v. Pelicans +3.5 | 116-99 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
4* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Pelicans + I like the value here with the Pelicans as a home dog against the Jazz. New Orleans had their 10-game winning streak snapped in their last game. They really didn't have much of a chance, as Anthony Davis had to miss the game with an ankle injury. He's expected to return for this game and I expect the Pelicans to return to form and get a big home win. The last time these two teams played was early February in New Orleans, which Utah won 133-109. That was back before the Pelicans turned a corner and started playing some of their best basketball. This has proven to be a great revenge spot for New Orleans, as the Pelicans have gone 30-18 ATS in their last 48 when revenging a loss to a team that scored 110 or more on them in the previous meeting. Take New Orleans! |
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03-11-18 | Houston +4.5 v. Cincinnati | 55-56 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Houston + I like the value here with the Cougars catching points in Sunday's AAC Tournament title showdown. Houston showed they are more than capable of hanging with the Bearcats during their two regular-season meetings. The Cougars did more than hold their own in a 10-point loss at Cincinnati earlier in conference play and later defeated the Bearcats 67-62 at home. Both teams took great care of the basketball in their semifinal matchups. Houston turned it over just 7 times, while the Bearcats committed just 3 turnovers. Houston has gone an impressive 30-16 ATS in their last 46 after a game with 8 or fewer turnovers, while Cincinnati is just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 in this same scenario. I think there's a great chance the Cougars don't just cover but win this game outright. Take Houston! |
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03-11-18 | Kentucky v. Tennessee +1 | 77-72 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
3* Kentucky/Tennessee ATS ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee I like the value here with the Volunteers in Sunday's SEC Tournament title game. Tennessee had the Wildcats number this season, sweeping the season series, and I look for them to add to it with another win here. The Volunteers have been one of the big surprises this season and Just don't think this team gets the respect they deserve. They certainly shouldn't be an underdog here, but Kentucky is playing well and are the bigger name, so the books are shading where the public money will be coming in. The Wildcats are a mere 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games after 2 straight conference wins and are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a blowout win by more than 20 points. Take Tennessee! |
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03-10-18 | Magic v. Clippers UNDER 218.5 | 105-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
3* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Magic UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's NBA action that has the Clippers hosting the Magic. While the Clippers have scored 116 or more in 4 straight games, I think we could see a much slower pace for LA tonight. The Clippers playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back after laying it all on the line at home last night against LeBron James and the Cavs. A game they won by 14. This is now a prime letdown spot for Los Angeles against a bottom feeder like the Magic. Orlando is a complete mess right now and the offense has really struggled of late. The Magic have failed to score 90 twice in their last 3 games. The key here is they have played some decent defense of late, as they are only allowing 100.4 ppg over their last 5. UNDER is 18-8 in the Magic's last 26 non-conference games and 10-1 in the Clippers last 11 home games off an upset win as a dog. Take the UNDER! |
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03-10-18 | USC v. Arizona -3 | Top | 61-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Arizona - I love the value here with the Wildcats laying a short number against the Trojans in the Pac-12 Tournament title game on Saturday. You have to give USC props for how well they have played without one of their best players in Bennie Boatwright, but I don't see the run continuing here against one of the best teams in the country, especially now that the Trojans are playing their 3rd game in 3 days. Arizona has won 4 straight and are 7-1 in their last 8. Any concerns about this team being hurt by all the off the court drama that's going on can be thrown out the window. If anything, it has brought this team together and have them playing with a bit of a chip on their shoulder. The Wildcats made easy work of the Trojans in the lone meeting this season, winning by 14 on their home floor. It could have been a lot worse, as Arizona shot 56% from the field and finished with a +18 edge on the boards. Those are two great signs that the Wildcats are the far superior team and will have no problem getting the win here. Take Arizona! |
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03-10-18 | West Virginia v. Kansas UNDER 149 | 70-81 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 18 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER |
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03-10-18 | St. Joe's v. Rhode Island -7.5 | 87-90 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 24 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Rhode Island - I like the value here with the Rams laying single-digits against the Hawks in Saturday's A-10 semifinals. Rhode Island was hands down the best team in the conference and they did just as expected and snapped a 2-game skid to end the regular-season with a 76-67 victory over VCU yesterday. While St. Joe's defeated George Mason by 19 as a 6.5-point favorite, I don't see the Hawks being able to keep this one close. That's because the Rams are going to be 100% locked in for this game. The only meeting between these two teams came at Rhode Island in the final week of the regular season. St. Joe's won that game 78-48 as a 13.5-point dog. The Hawks took advantage of a Rams team that wasn't locked in with the A-10 regular-season title already in the bag. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Rhode Island flipped the script and ended up winning here by 20+. With yesterday's cover over VCU the Rams are now 7-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games. They are also a dominant 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games off a conference win and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 when playing only their 2nd game in a 8-day stretch. Take Rhode Island! |
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03-10-18 | Alabama v. Kentucky UNDER 142.5 | 63-86 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Early Bird ANNIHILATOR on Alabama UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's SEC semifinal action between Kentucky and Alabama. These are two of the better defensive teams in the league and with a trip to the title game on the line, I think this one stays well under the mark set by the books. The Crimson Tide limited Texas A&M to just 70 points and on 39% shooting in their first game of the Tournament and followed that up by holding Auburn to a mere 63 points on 32.3% shooting. Kentucky's defense was even better in their only game so far in the tournament, as they held Georgia to a mere 49 points on 28% shooting. UNDER is 10-2 in Alabama's last 12 games after playing 2 straight games as an underdog and 15-5 in their last 20 after going UNDER the total in their previous game. UNDER is also 7-2 in Kentucky's last 9 games played on a neutral site. Take the UNDER! |
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03-10-18 | Cornell v. Harvard UNDER 140.5 | 55-74 | Win | 100 | 3 h 59 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER on Cornell UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER is Saturday's Ivy League action between Cornell and Harvard. These two teams combined for at least 149 in both regular-season meetings, but I expect a much more defensive game with what is at stake here in postseason play. Harvard won the most recent meeting at home by double-digits and that's worth noting, as the UNDER is 13-4 in Cornell's last 17 road games when revenging a road loss of 10 or more points. UNDER is also a strong 16-5 in Harvard's last 21 when they come in off 2 straight games where they scored 75 or more points. Adding to all of this is a great system in play. The UNDER is 25-3 when you neutral court teams against the total (HARVARD) - after 3 or more consecutive overs, an average team (+/- 3.5 PPG diff.) against a poor team (-3.5 to -8 PPG diff.) after 15+ games. Take the UNDER! |
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03-09-18 | UCF v. Houston -7.5 | Top | 56-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on Houston - I like the value here with the Cougars in Friday's American Athletic action, as I think Houston wins this by double-digits no problem. The Cougars have been one of the best kept secrets in the country. Houston finished 24-6 and were 14-4 in the AAC. They went 8-1 over their last 9 games and several of those were close. UCF comes in off back-to-back wins over Tulane and East Carolina, with the win over the Pirates coming in yesterday's AAC Tournament action. That's important to note, as Houston got a bye and will have a big rest advantage here with the Knights playing for the 2nd time in 2 days. The only meeting between these two teams this season came at UCF, which the Cougars won 69-65. The Knights are a mere 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games after covering the spread in 3 of their last 4 games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games after playing 2 straight games as a favorite. Take Houston! |
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03-09-18 | UCLA v. Arizona -4.5 | 67-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
4* LATE INFO INSIDER No Analysis on late releases |
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03-09-18 | St. Louis v. Davidson -7 | Top | 60-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
5* NCAAB No Limit TOP PLAY on Davidson - I like the value here with the Wildcats in Friday's A-10 action against the Billikens. Davidson saved it's best basketball for late in the year, as they closed out the regular season on a 8-2 run with the only two losses coming at Rhode Island (A-10 regular season champs) and at St. Bonaventure (finished 2nd in A-10) in triple-overtime. These two teams played just once in the regular-season. Davidson won that contest at home 54-51. Note that was back before they caught fire, so there's every reason to expect a larger margin of victory tonight, especially given the rest advantage for the Wildcats. Davidson didn't have to play yesterday, while St Louis had to take on George Washington. Look for that to play a big part in the Wildcats winning here by more than the number. Take Davidson! |
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03-09-18 | Hawks v. Pacers -7.5 | 87-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
3* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Pacers - The like the value here with the Pacers laying single-digits at home against the Hawks on Friday. Indiana should have no problem winning here going away. The Pacers are going to be extremely motivated off an embarrassing 20-point home loss to the Jazz last time out. Atlanta is the perfect team to get back on track against, as the Hawks are more focused about building for the future than winning games right now. Note the last two times that Atlanta traveled to play the Pacers it hasn't gone well. These two met at Indiana back on Feb. 23 and the Pacers won 116-93. The previous meeting at home for the Pacers saw them win by a final of 104-86. Pacers are 21-6 ATS in their last 7 off a double-digit loss at home and are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs teams from the Eastern Conference. Take Indiana! |
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03-09-18 | Mississippi State +7 v. Tennessee | 59-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER No Analysis on late releases |
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03-09-18 | Georgia v. Kentucky -5 | Top | 49-62 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
5* NCAAB SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Kentucky - I love the value here and spot for the Wildcats, as they will take on Georgia in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. Kentucky defeated the Bulldogs in the lone meeting this season and have won 10 straight in the series overall. This is a big spot for the Wildcats, who are going to want to bounce back with a strong showing here after an ugly double-digit loss at Florida to close out the regular season. Georgia just isn't a team I feel that can compete with Kentucky given the circumstances. While the Bulldogs will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days, the Wildcats will be playing their first game of the tournament after receiving a double-bye. This is a statement game for Kentucky and I expect them deliver with a convincing win. Take Kentucky! |
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03-09-18 | George Mason v. St. Joe's -6 | Top | 49-68 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
5* NCAAB A-10 GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Joe's - I love the value here with the Hawks in Friday's A-10 action against George Mason. St. Joseph's closed out the regular-season on a tear, going 6-1 in their final 7 games, which includes that impressive 78-48 win at Rhode Island as a 13.5-point dog. I look for the Hawks to have zero problem making easy work of the Patriots. George Mason is at a big disadvantage here in terms of rest. While St. Joseph's got a bye for yesterday's action, the Patriots had to take on UMass. It wasn't an easy win, as George Mason escaped with a 75-70 victory. I just don't see them having enough left in the tank here and we know we are going to get the very best the Hawks have to offer. St Joseph's is playing with double-revenge from two extremely close losses to the Patriots, losing by 2 at George Mason and by 3 at home. Hawks haven't played since last Saturday and are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games when playing only their 2nd game in a week. They are also 11-2 ATS in their last 13 away from home when they come in having won at least 6 of their last 8 games. Take St. Joseph's! |
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03-09-18 | Memphis v. Tulsa -4 | 67-64 | Loss | -108 | 1 h 50 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER No Analysis on late releases |
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03-09-18 | VCU v. Rhode Island -9.5 | 67-76 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 39 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Early Bird ATS NO-BRAINER on Rhode Island - I like the value here with Rhode Island in Friday's game against VCU in the quarterfinals of the Atlantic-10 Tournament. VCU is a well-known name for a small-school and aren't often this big of a dog, but they are simply outmatched here against a Rhode Island team that is one of the better teams in the country not everyone knows about. Rhode Island comes in at 23-6 overall and won the A-10 regular season title with a mark of 15-3 in conference play. They had a stretch in the season where they won 16 straight. They did close out the regular-season with 2 straight losses and I think that was more of just this team getting a little complacent. I expect to see a different focus an intensity when they take the floor here. Rhode Island went on the road and beat VCU 81-68 in early February, which is a good sign they can win by a similar margin on a neutral site. It also helps that Rhode Island will have a big edge here in terms of rest. While they had a bye on Thursday, VCU was playing in a dog fight against Dayton, which they prevailed 77-72. I mentioned earlier VCU isn't use to being a big dog. They are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games when getting points. They are also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Rhode Island! |
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03-08-18 | Oregon State v. USC -5 | 48-61 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Late Night ATS MASSACRE on USC - I like the value here with the Trojans in Thursday's Pac-12 Tournament action against the Beavers. I just think USC is being undervalued here because of the injury to Bennie Boatwright. While that's a big loss in the grand scheme of things, I don't think it will keep the Trojans from making easy work of the Beavers. Oregon State comes in off an impressive win over Washington last night, but they needed overtime to do it. The Beavers aren't a dip team and 5 different players logged over 30 minutes in that game. Now Oregon State has to play on no rest against a USC team that got a first round bye. USC won both meetings during the regular season, including a 7-point win at Oregon State. The Trojans are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games vs a team with a winning record and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games. Take USC! |
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03-08-18 | Utah State v. Boise State -7.5 | Top | 78-75 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
5* NCAAB MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Boise State I like the value here with the Broncos in Thursday's MWC action against the Aggies. Boise State was by the far better team during the regular season. The Broncos went 23-7 with a 13-5 mark in the MWC, while Utah State was just 16-15 with a 8-10 mark in conference play. The Aggies defeated Colorado State 76-65 yesterday, but that was to be expected. Now Utah State is being forced to play on no rest, while the Broncos are playing on 4 days of rest. Boise State is going to want to play well in this tournament after going just 3-3 down the stretch. They will also be extremely motivated here playing with revenge from a loss in the last meeting with Utah State. The Aggies have won and covered their last two games, but are a mere 2-12 ATS in their last 14 after successfully covering the spread in 2 straight games. They are also a mere 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games against a good team that's won between 60% and 80% of their games. Take Boise State! |
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03-08-18 | Nets +7 v. Hornets | 125-111 | Win | 100 | 19 h 55 m | Show | |
3* NBA Undervalued UNDERDOG on Nets + I like the value here with the Nets catching a decent number here agains the Hornets. Just when it looked like Charlotte was making a move after winning 5 straight, they have lost their last 4. This team is a miserable 5-9 ATS in their last 14 games. This team continues to get too much respect. As bad as the Nets have been, I wouldn't be shocked to see them win this game outright. Brooklyn is starting to get healthy and I think they gained some confidence in their last game against the Warriors. While they lost by 14, they can build on the fact that they took a halftime lead against the defending champs after being down by as many as 21 in the 1st quarter. Charlotte has to be a tired team right now and are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games when playing their 8th game in 14 days. They have also really struggled against the Atlantic division, going just 7-22 ATS in their last 29 games. It's the exact opposite for the Nets, who are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 vs the Southeast. Take Brooklyn! |
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03-08-18 | Notre Dame v. Duke -7.5 | Top | 70-88 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Prime Time TOP PLAY on Duke I like the value here with the Blue Devils in Thursday's showdown with Notre Dame in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament. There's no question that the Irish are a different team with Colson in the lineup and likely deserve to be included in the NCAA Tournament regardless if they win this game or not. Either way, I don't think they will have enough gas left in the tank to keep this game competitive against what should be a very motivated Duke side. Notre Dame had to play in the opening round on Tuesday and scratched out a 67-64 win over Pitt. They then miraculously rallied from 21 down in the 2nd half in yesterday's win over Va Tech. The Irish will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days against a Duke team that received a double-bye and hasn't played since Saturday. The Blue Devils will cruise to an easy win and cover tonight. Take Duke! |
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03-08-18 | Stanford v. UCLA -4 | 77-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB ATS HEAVY HITTER on UCLA - I like the value here with the Bruins laying what I feel is a very short number against the Cardinal. While these two teams finished with identical 11-7 records in Pac-12 play, I believe UCLA is simply the better team and has the more impressive resume. The other big key here is the rest advantage that the Bruins have in this contest. Despite the same record, UCLA earned a first round by in the Pac-12 Tournament, while the Cardinal had to play yesterday in opening round action against Cal. Note that Cal is responsible for 2 of Stanford's 5 road wins. This is also a good spot to fade Stanford coming off a strong defensive showing against Cal, where they held the Golden Bears to just 58 points. The Cardinal are a mere 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing 60 points or less. Take UCLA! |
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03-08-18 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas -3.5 | 68-82 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Kansas - I like the value here with the Jayhawks laying what I feel is a short number against the Cowboys. I know Oklahoma State swept the season series, but I think there's every reason to expect a different outcome this time around. The Cowboys caught the Jayhawks by surprise in Lawrence the first go around. That wasn't a great spot for KU off two big wins (at home vs Texas A&M and at in-state rival K-State). The second time around was the regular-season finale for both teams, which Oklahoma State rolled to a 18-point win. The big thing there is Kansas already had the conference title locked up, so there wasn't much of anything to play for. This time around I'm confident we will get the very best the Jayhawks have to offer. Not only because they are playing with double-revenge, but also because the last thing this team wants is to lose here and go into the NCAA Tournament with zero momentum. I think this one could get out of hand in a hurry, especially with the big rest edge the Jayhawks have with Oklahoma State playing on no rest and off a big win over in-state rival Oklahoma. Take Kansas! |
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03-08-18 | Colorado v. Arizona -8.5 | Top | 67-83 | Win | 100 | 17 h 0 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona - I like the value here with the Wildcats in Thursday's Pac-12 Tournament action against Colorado. I just think all the outside noise that has surrounded this program of late with head coach Sean Miller and a couple of their star players, has brought Arizona closer together as a team and have them poised for a great postseason run. This is without a doubt one of the most talented teams in the country. Colorado comes in off an impressive upset win over Arizona State yesterday, but the Sun Devils have struggled down the stretch. It was only the 5th win away from home all season for the Buffaloes and chances are they won't be able to duplicate that strong performance this afternoon. I think the Wildcats win here comfortably. Colorado is a mere 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games off a win and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 off a win by 10 or more points. Wildcats on the other hand are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games after playing their previous game as a home favorite and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games off a conference home win. Take Arizona! |