Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-13-19 | Astros v. Tigers +146 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Tigers +146 Big time value here with Detroit as a big home dog against the Astros. No denying that the Astros are the better overall team, but the Tigers will have the better starter going in Monday's series opener. Detroit will turn to Matt Boyd, who is off to a fantastic start to the 2019 season. Boyd has a 2.86 ERA and 0.934 WHIP in 8 starts. He's 3-0 with a 2.42 ERA and 0.846 WHIP in 4 home starts and has a 2.37 ERA and 0.789 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Astros will counter with Brad Peacock. While Peacock was great in his last start, that was at home against a bad Royals offense. Peacock has sub-par 4.59 ERA in 6 starts overall and owns an ugly 6.96 ERA in 2 road starts. Tigers are a dominant 14-3 in Boyd's last 17 home starts. Take Detroit! |
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05-12-19 | Brewers +132 v. Cubs | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
4* Brewers/Cubs Sunday Night Baseball NO-BRAINER on Brewers +132 Give me Milwaukee as a decently priced road dog all day against the Cubs. Chicago squeaked out a 2-1 win in 15-innings on Saturday, but the offense remained ice-cold and the Cubs shaky bullpen now goes into Sunday far from full strength. I know the numbers are great for Brewers starter, Jhoylys Chacin, but he's been trending in the right direction. Chacin has a solid 3.60 ERA and 1.067 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Even more important to note is his past success against these Cubs. Chacin has a 2.81 ERA in 11 career starts against Chicago. In his last 5 starts at Wrigley Field, he's given a whopping 5 earned runs. Take Milwaukee! |
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05-12-19 | 76ers v. Raptors OVER 207.5 | Top | 90-92 | Loss | -109 | 56 h 60 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on 76ers/Raptors over 207½ -109 I know that the defensive effort will be there for both teams in Game 7, but I just can't pass up on the value here with the OVER at this price. While both teams have flashed great defense in the postseason, especially the Raptors, I just think there's too much offensive fire-power on the floor for these two to not reach at least 210 points. Each of the last 2 games have went OVER the total and both of those were blowouts. I think this one is going to be a lot closer and even more high-scoring than the last two. OVER is 17-6 in the 76ers last 23 road games with a total set between 200 and 209.5. Over is also 34-19 in the Raptors last 53 when revenging a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. Take the OVER! |
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05-12-19 | Hurricanes +140 v. Bruins | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
4* NHL Vegas Money Line MASSACRE on Hurricanes +140 I really like Carolina to even up the series at 1-1 with a win in Game 2, making this an easy play on the Hurricanes at this price. While Boston ended up winning Game 1 by a final score of 5-2, that score does not reflect how the game went. Carolina actually had 2-1 lead in the 3rd period, before they unraveled, giving up two quick power play goals to fall behind 3-2. Boston added a couple more goals late to make it look more lopsided than it was. Hurricanes lost the game, but were the better team for the majority of that contest. I'm willing to bet they keep their cool and come away with a win. Take Carolina! |
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05-12-19 | Rangers +195 v. Astros | Top | 5-15 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas HEAVY HITTER Top Play on Rangers +195 I absolutely love the value here with Texas, as they are almost +200 on the money line in a game I give them a great shot to win. Astros have already secured a series win, as they have taken the first 3 games in the series, so it would be really easy for them to not come to the park 100% locked in today. The other big key here is the Astros have a struggling Collin McCugh on the mound. They have lost 5 of his 8 starts in 2019 and he comes into this one wiht a 9.20 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last 3 starts. It's also worth noting that most of his struggles have come at home. No way should Houston be this big a favorite with him starting. Take Texas! |
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05-11-19 | Angels v. Orioles +130 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
5* American League HEAVY HITTER of the MONTH on Orioles +130 Big time value here with Baltimore as a home dog on Saturday. I get the Orioles are not a great team, but no way should the Angels be this big of a road favorite with a guy like Matt Harvey on the mound. Harvey is a mere 1-3 with a 6.94 ERA and 1.376 WHIP in 7 starts. In his last start, he gave up 5 runs on 5 hits with just 1 strikeout in 4 2/3 innings. Baltimore on the other hand will have Dylan Bundy on the mound and we know he's got the talent despite the not so great numbers. Key here is Bundy comes in red-hot with a 2.95 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The most recent being an absolute gem at home against the Rays, where he allowed just 3 hits over 7 1/3 shutout innings. Take Baltimore! |
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05-11-19 | Tigers +148 v. Twins | 5-3 | Win | 148 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
4* MLB Vegas Money Line MASSACRE on Tigers +148 I'll jump on Detroit in Game 1 of Saturday's double-header with the Twins. I get Minnesota is the better team. There's no arguing that. However, the starting pitching matchup in Game 1 is so heavily in favor of the Tigers, I just can't pass up on a play at this price. Detroit is sending out Spencer Turnbull, who has a 2.31 ERA and 1.179 WHIP in his first 7 starts. He's been even better than that on the road, where he owns a 2.25 ERA. He also has a 1.00 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in his last 3 starts. As for Twins starter, Michael Pineda, he has a 6.09 ERA and 1.529 WHIP in 7 starts. He has a 6.75 ERA in 4 home starts and a 7.05 ERA and 1.892 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Take Detroit! |
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05-10-19 | Braves +126 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 2-1 | Win | 126 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
5* MLB Late Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Braves +126 I just can't pass up a play on Atlanta at this price. The Braves will have Julio Teheran on the mound and have won 12 of his last 14 starts when they go off as a dog of +100 to +150. Atlanta has also gone 10-3 in Teheran's last 13 starts against a NL team scoring 5 or more runs/game. Teheran has a not so great 4.63 ERA and 1.343 WHIP in his last 8 starts, but comes in with a 3.32 ERA and 0.947 WHIP with 19 strikeouts in 19 innings over his last 3 starts. Last time out he gave up just 2 hits over 6 shutout innings. He will be up against a Dbacks offense that has score 3 or fewer in 4 straight. Take Atlanta! |
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05-10-19 | Warriors v. Rockets -6 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 5 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs - Warriors/Rockets Game 6 VEGAS INSIDER on Rockets -6 -110 I'll back Houston in a must-win at home against the Warriors in Game 6. With Golden State up 3-2 in the series, it's win or season over for the Rockets. In a change of events from last year, the Warriors will be the ones trying to close out a series without one of their best players. Last year the Rockets had a 3-2 series lead before losing Chris Paul to an injury. Warriors won Game 6 at home 115-86 and followed that up with a win at Houston in Game 7. Rockets will look to take a similar path, as Golden State will be without Kevin Durant. I get the Warriors still have Curry, Thompson and Green, but Houston now without a doubt has the best player on the floor in Harden and in my opinion are the better defensive team. I think the Rockets roll here. Take Houston! |
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05-10-19 | Brewers +118 v. Cubs | 7-0 | Win | 118 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
4* MLB NL Central PLAY OF THE WEEK on Brewers +118 Really like the value here with Milwaukee as a dog. I know the game is in Chicago and the Cubs are playing well, but Brewers have won 6 straight. While Jose Quintana has been red-hot, he got lit up by this high-powered Milwaukee offense earlier this season. Quintana lasted just 3 innings after serving up 8 runs on 8 hits and 3 walks. Brewers will have veteran Gio Gonzalez on the mound and he's looked sharp in his first two starts of 2019. Gonzalez has only given up 3 runs with 9 K's in 10 1/3 innings. Cubs offense is pretty hit or miss and they come in hitting just .248 over their last 7 and .233 on the season at home. Take Milwaukee! |
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05-09-19 | Raptors v. 76ers +2 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 2 h 31 m | Show |
5* BEST BET on 76ers +2 -110 Analysis will be posted shortly |
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05-09-19 | Hurricanes +135 v. Bruins | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
4* NHL Playoffs Money Line HEAVY HITTER on Hurricanes +135 Love Carolina to go on the road and take Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. After needing the full 7 games to outlast Washington in the first round, the Hurricanes swept the Islanders in round two. Their Game 4 win over New York came last Friday. Boston on the other hand needed 7-games to get by Toronto in the first round and then just had a grueling 6-game series against Columbus, which ended on Monday. This will be the 5th game in the last 9 days for the Bruins. Let's also not overlook the fact that Carolina has won 6 straight overall, scoring 4 or more goals in 4 of the 6 wins. Take Carolina! |
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05-09-19 | Marlins +190 v. Cubs | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
4* MLB Money Line NO-BRAINER on Marlins +190 The books have inflated the number here on Chicago to where it's just too good a price to pass up. Cubs have won 9 of their last 10, including each of the last 2 in the series, but Miami did win the opener and then has lost the last two on a walk-off homer. Marlins could just as easily be going for a 4-game sweep here. Either way it's hard to trust Chicago at this price with a starter that has struggled as much as Yu Darvish. In his first 7 starts of 2019, Darvish owns a 5.79 ERA and 1.714 WHIP. He's also been especially bad at home, posting a 7.54 ERA and 1.675 WHIP in 3 starts at Wrigley Field. Marlins have won 12 of their last 18 against a starter who averages fewer than 5 innings/start and are 18-9 in their last 27 road games vs a starter who averages 2.75 or more walks/game. Take Miami! |
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05-09-19 | White Sox +220 v. Indians | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 38 m | Show |
5* AL Central Vegas Insider GAME OF THE WEEK on White Sox +220 This is just too good a price to pass up on Chicago. The White Sox had won the first two games of the series before losing a 5-3 on a 2-run homer in the bottom of the 9th yesterday. I get Cleveland is the better team and should be favored at home, but no way should they be this big of a favorite with the struggles they are having scoring runs. Cleveland needed 12 hits to push across 5 runs and had just 3 runs going into the 9th. They had scored a total of 1 run in their previous 3 games combined and 2 or fewer in 5 of their last 6. As bad as the numbers are for Chicago starter Manny Banuelos, similar guys have kept this Indianas offense in check. Chicago has some nice young bats and I think they can get to Indians starter Carlos Carrasco. He's made 7 starts and owns a 5.60 ERA and 1.330 WHIP. He's had a really tough time keeping the ball in the park, as he's already served up 8 homers and the win will be blowing out to center/right center at close to 20 mph. Take Chicago! |
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05-08-19 | Angels +111 v. Tigers | 3-10 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
3* MLB Money Line DESTROYER on Angels +111 I look for the Angles to win here on the road against the Tigers. LA has won 5 of their last 7, while the Tigers are just 3-7 in their last 10. Angels will also have southpaw Tyler Skaggs on the mound and he's got a strong 3.12 ERA and 1.231 WHIP in 5 starts. LA has won 7 of his last 10 vs a team with a losing record and Detroit is a mere 1-6 in their last 7 vs a left-handed starter. Tigers have also had a miserable time against teams from the AL West. They are a pathetic 14-42 in their last 56 vs that division. Angels are 18-3 in their last 21 vs AL team that is averaging 3.9 or less runs/game. Take Los Angeles! |
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05-08-19 | Nationals +180 v. Brewers | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 6 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas HEAVY HITTER Top Play on Nationals +180 No way should Milwaukee be this big of a home favorite on Wednesday. Brewers are simply overvalued due to winning 5 straight. Brandon Woodruff will be starting for Milwaukee and while he's 4-1, he's owns a very sub-par 5.04 ERA and 1.480 WHIP. Very even matchup on the mound with Jeremy Hellickson going for the Nationals. I see some hidden value with the fact that the Brewers have won the first 2 games of this series, as Washington has thrived in this spot. Nationals are 20-7 in their last 27 after losing the first 2 games of the series. Milwaukee has also dropped 6 of their last 8 when playing Game 3 of a series. Also, I know the Washington offense has struggled, but Nationals are 30-13 in their last 43 in games following a 3-game stretch where they hit .200 or worse. Take Washington! |
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05-07-19 | Braves +135 v. Dodgers | Top | 0-9 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Braves +135 I think the books have made a huge mistake here pricing Atlanta as a big road dog against the Dodgers. Both teams will send out a talented left-handed starter, as Max Fried goes for the Braves and Hyun-Jin Ryu toes the rubber for Los Angeles. The key here is the Braves have feasted on south paw starters this season. Atlanta is averaging 5.7 runs/game with a .274 average and .365 OBP in 9 games vs a left-handed starter. Dodgers on the other hand are only hitting .238 as a team in 13 games vs left-handed starters. LA is also a mere 8-18 in Ryu's last 26 starts vs a team with a winning record and 1-4 in his last 5 after scoring 5 or more in their previous game. Take Atlanta! |
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05-07-19 | Giants +114 v. Rockies | 14-4 | Win | 114 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
3* MLB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Giants +114 Easy play here on San Francisco. Giants will have their ace Madison Bumgarner on the mound, who is coming off a great start at home against the Dodgers. Bumgarner allowed just 1 run on 4 hits with 8 strikeouts. Just like hitters, pitchers are streaky and I think that we could see Bumgarner go on a nice run of quality starts. Hard to not like him here, as he's posted a 2.84 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in 3 road starts this season and owns a strong 3.12 ERA and 1.217 WHIP in 31 career starts against the Rockies. As for Colorado, they will have Antonio Senzatela on the mound and he's an average starter at best. He's got a 4.03 ERA and 1.432 WHIP in 4 starts so far in 2019. Take San Francisco! |
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05-07-19 | Stars +120 v. Blues | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 3 m | Show | |
3* NHL Playoffs Money Line DESTROYER on Stars + Love the value here with Dallas. Most will just back St Louis here in Game 7. The Blue are coming off an impressive 4-1 win on the road in Game 6 and will be the host for this winner take all showdown. I just think that's a mistake. Playing at home has not been all that great for St Louis. The Blues have just 2 wins in 6 home games this postseason. Stars not only are the better offensive team right now, but I trust Ben Bishop a lot more than I do Jordan Binnington. Stars are 8-2 in their last 10 as a road dog and St Louis has gone just 3-7 in their last 10 playoff games when listed as the favorite. Take Dallas! |
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05-06-19 | Warriors +1.5 v. Rockets | 108-112 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
4* Warriors/Rockets Game 4 VEGAS INSIDER on Warriors + Not a shocker that Houston won Game 3, but it wasn't easy. The Rockets needed overtime and 41 points from James Harden to squeak out a 5-point win. Not to mention another 30 points from Eric Gordon. Warriors also almost won the game with Steph Curry shooting a mere 7 of 23 from the field (2-9 from 3-pt) and finishing with just 17 points. I just think it's going to be hard for Houston to do that in Game 4. Golden State does not want to let this thing go back home tied 2-2. The Warriors are on a mission to 3-peat and I expect them to show up in a big way and get the win here. Take Golden State! |
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05-06-19 | Mariners +137 v. Yankees | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
3* MLB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Mariners + The Mariners are definitely worth a look here as a big road dog against the Yankees. Seattle's Felix Hernandez has been better than anticipated of late and I like him to out-perform another old ace in C.C. Sabathia. Yankees are still without a bunch of their top guys and have not been producing at the plate of late. Seattle got their offense going in a big way on Sunday, as they put up 10 runs on 12 hits in a blowout win at Cleveland. I look for those bats to stay hot and for the Mariners to win this one going away. Mariners are 14-5 in their last 19 off a win. Take Seattle! |
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05-06-19 | Giants +143 v. Reds | 4-12 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 31 m | Show | |
4* MLB Early Bird NO-BRAINER on Giants + This is just too good a price to pass up on the Giants. San Francisco has rallied late twice to beat the Reds in this series. Yesterday it was Brandon Crawford who hit a 2-run homer in the Top of the 9th to secure a 6-5 win (trailed 4-0 in the 1st inning). Not only will SF be riding a wave of momentum, but losses like that are really tough to bounce back from. I think even more so when teams are forced to play an early game on a travel day (Cincinnati heading to California for a series against Oakland tomorrow). No way should the Giants be this big of a dog, especially with a very even matchup on the mound. Take San Francisco! |
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05-05-19 | Mets +137 v. Brewers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas HEAVY HITTER Top Play on Mets + I just feel like there's too much value here with New York to pass up. These two are coming off a marathon 18-inning game on Saturday. Milwaukee won the contest 4-3 and while it's just one game, it feels a little worse than that in games that go that many extra innings. I think we are going to see New York the more focused of the two in Sunday's game, as I think they will want this one a little more. Milwaukee has already secured the series by taking the first two and could be looking ahead to a bigger series against the Nationals. Zach Davies has been great for the Brewers, but he's not someone that goes deep in games. He's also got a less than stellar 5.77 ERA and 1.483 WHIP in 6 career starts against the Mets. New York also has a hot starter on the mound, as Jason Vargas owns a 1.93 ERA and 1.214 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Take New York! |
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05-04-19 | Warriors +4 v. Rockets | Top | 121-126 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
5* NBA Wiseguy Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Warriors + A lot of people will be quick to lay the short number with Houston at home in Game 3, as everyone sees this as a must-win for the Rockets, who are down 0-2 in the series. No denying how big a game this is for Houston, but I believe the Warriors will also be out to send a message. Last thing Golden State wants to do is give Houston life and I think they come out extremely motivated to go up 3-0. While the Rockets more than held their own on the road in Games 1 & 2, they continued to struggle from the field. Houston hasn't eclipsed 110 points in 5 straight and have shut under 45% from the field in 4 of their last 5. Warriors are 15-5 ATS last 2 seasons in the 2nd half of the year vs a team with a winning record and have covered 7 of their last 8 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Rockets are also just 2-6 ATS last 8 when playing on 3 days of rest. Take Golden State! |
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05-04-19 | Red Sox v. White Sox +157 | 15-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
4* MLB Money Line NO-BRAINER on White Sox + The White Sox are definitely worth a look as a huge home underdog on Saturday. Chicago has split the first 2 games of the series and have won 5 of their last 7 overall. No way should the White Sox be this big of a dog on their home turf, especially with how today's two starters are throwing the rock. Boston will send out Eduardo Rodriguez, who has a 6.16 ERA and 1.532 WHIP in 6 starts. It gets even worse on the road, as Rodriguez has a 9.45 ERA and 2.251 WHIP over 3 road outings. Chicago will turn to Manny Banuelos. While he's only made 2 starts, he owns a 1.86 ERA in those two outings, giving up just 2 runs in 9 2/3 innings of work. Red Sox are just a mere 2-8 in their last 10 as a road favorite of -125 or more and have lost 5 of their last 6 vs a left-handed starter. Take Chicago! |
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05-04-19 | Giants +124 v. Reds | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
5* National League Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Giants + This is just too good a price to pass up with San Francisco. The Giants are coming off a thrilling 7-6 win on Friday, as they trailed 11-7 going into the 8th inning. They scored 3 in the 8th, 1 in the 9th and eventually the game-winning run in the 11th. That's going to be a tough loss for the Reds to bounce back from. San Francisco will turn to Dereck Rodriguez and he's a perfect 3-0 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.021 WHIP in 3 road starts. Cincinnati will counter with Tanner Roark, who has struggled with 4.08 ERA and 1.675 WHIP in 6 starts. Roark has really struggled with his command, walking 9 guys in his last 3 starts. Giants are 7-1 in Rodriguez's last 8 road starts with a total set between 7 and 8.5, 4 of his last 5 vs a team with a losing record and 7 of his last 9 road starts overall. Take San Francisco! |
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05-03-19 | Dodgers v. Padres +148 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 23 m | Show | |
4* MLB NL West PLAY OF THE WEEK on Padres + Love the value here with the Padres as a big home underdog against the Dodgers. I know LA has Kershaw on the mound and he's looked good in his first 3 starts, but it's never easy winning on the road inside your own division. The Padres will have a pretty good starter of their own going, as they turn to Eric Lauer. He's got a strong 3.37 ERA in 3 home starts and even more important is that he's owned the Dodgers. Lauer is perfect 3-0 with a 0.92 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in 3 career starts against LA (all last year). Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 at home vs a left-handed starter and have won 8 of their last 11 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Take San Diego! |
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05-03-19 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 220 | Top | 123-116 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bucks UNDER No need to overthink this one. Big time value here with the UNDER at this number. While Game 2 went OVER the mark, it do so just barely and was a bit of a fluke given how poorly both teams shot overall. Despite scoring 123 points, the Bucks only shot 43.8% from the field. Boston was even worse at 39.5%. The only reason the game went over is the Bucks made 20 3-pointers and the two combined to go 49 for 58 (84%) from the free throw line. These two only combined for 202 points in Game 1 and I still think we have yet to see a true defensive game between these two. I think the Celtics defense is really going to benefit from playing at home, and Milwaukee is going to be extremely motivated to take back homecourt in the series. I wouldn't be shocked at all if both teams failed to break 100 points. Take the UNDER! |
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05-03-19 | Giants +147 v. Reds | 12-11 | Win | 147 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
3* MLB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Giants + This is just too good a price to pass up with San Francisco. The Giants enter this series having just won 2 of 3 at home against the Dodgers and with the way the Reds are struggling to score it's hard to not like them in Friday's series opener. Cincinnati has scored 3 or fewer runs in 5 of their last 6 games. They had just 1 run on 4 hits Wednesday and were shutout with another 4 hits on Thursday. San Francisco will turn to Tyler Beede, who has an impressive 1.99 ERA with 34 strikeouts in 22 2/3 innings in the minors. Beede got 2 starts last year at the big league level, so the nerves won't be a big issue this time around. Reds are just 10-28 in their last 38 after scoring 1 run or less in their last game and 5-18 in their last 23 when coming in having hit .175 or worse over their last 3 games. Take San Francisco! |
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05-02-19 | Raptors v. 76ers UNDER 215 | Top | 95-116 | Win | 100 | 56 h 53 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors UNDER I just don't know how you don't play the UNDER at this number given what we have seen in the first two games of the series. Game 1 had a total of 223 and it ended up with a combined score of 203. They lowered the total down to 219.5 for Game and it still wasn't close. This time they only managed 183 points. I don't see any reason to expect anything but another low-scoring game. Toronto has yet to allow an opponent to shoot better than 42% from the field in any game this postsesaon. They have held the 76ers under 40% in both games. They have also not allowed more than 96 points in any game since Game 1 of the first round against Orlando. You also have to factor in that Embiid is not 100% and when he's not right the 76ers offense can really struggle to score in the halfcourt. I think Philly understands that for them to win this series they have to play with same defensive intensity that they brought to the table in Game 2. Take the UNDER! |
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05-02-19 | Bruins v. Blue Jackets OVER 5.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
3* NHL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Bruins OVER This might seem like a crazy play, given that each of the first 3 games stayed under the total, all of which were set at the same line of 5.5. However, we did see a combined 5 goals in both Game 1 and Game 2. What I really like is that both teams are getting a ton of shots off and I just don't feel like the goaltending can keep being as good as it's been. OVER is 13-4 in Boston's last 17 when revenging a close loss of 1 goal or less and 23-10 in Columbus' last 33 off a home win by 1 goal. Take the OVER! |
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05-02-19 | Reds +168 v. Mets | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 41 m | Show | |
3* MLB Early Bird Money Line DESTROYER on Reds + Yesterday we cashed in on the Reds +180 as our free pick and will not hesitate to fire back with Cincinnati as another big underdog on Thursday. It's a very similar scenario where we have the Mets getting a ton of love for the name they have on the mound and not the production that they are getting from that guy. Noah Syndergaard is viewed as a top tier starter and is coming off a great 2018 season. However, he's not been good in 2019. Syndergaard has a 6.35 ERA and 1.471 WHIP in 6 starts and is trending in the wrong direction with a 8.40 ERA and 2.33 WHIP in his last 3 outings. He's also given up 4+ runs in 4 straight starts. Take Cincinnati! |
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05-01-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets -3.5 | 97-90 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
4* Blazers/Nuggets Game 2 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Nuggets - I just don't feel like the books are giving the Nuggets the respect they deserve on their home floor. Denver won 121-113 in Game 1 at home and did so with Portland shooting 51% from the field and Damian Lillard going off for 39 points. Nuggets are now 38-8 on their home floor this season, where they are winning on average by 10+ ppg. Blazers aren't a great road team and I think they simply played as good as they could in Game 1. Keep in mind Portland went into Game 1 on 5 days of rest, while Denver was playing on just 1-day of rest after their Game 7 win over the Spurs. Nuggets 13-5 ATS last 18 as a home favorite of 6 or less and 18-4 ATS last 22 at home when coming off a game where they covered the spread. Take Denver! |
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05-01-19 | Indians v. Marlins +135 | 2-4 | Win | 135 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
4* MLB Money Line NO-BRAINER on Marlins + If you only got to look at the numbers of the two starters in this game, almost everyone would be taking the Marlins. Instead, most will just see the Indians playing a bad team with their ace Corey Kluber on the mound and back Cleveland. Kluber has not been good. He's got a 5.81 ERA and 1.677 WHIP in 6 starts and is not trending in the right direction. Last 3 starts, Kluber has a 7.98 ERA and 1.909 WHIP. On the flip side of this, Marlins' starter Caleb Smith has a 2.17 ERA and 0.828 WHIP in 5 starts overall with a 1.00 ERA and 0.722 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Take Miami! |
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05-01-19 | Yankees -115 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH on Yankees - Arizona was able to take yesterday's series opener 3-1 behind a great outing from their ace Zack Greinke. It was a rare loss for New York, as they are 9-2 in their last 11. I look for the Yankees to have no problem bouncing back and securing a split of this short 2-game series. New York will have the edge on the mound this time around, as they send out Masahiro Tanaka against Arizona's Merrill Kelly. Tanaka has a strong 3.60 ERA and 1.285 WHIP in 6 starts. Kelly has a solid 3.94 ERA, but an ugly 1.382 WHIP (walked 9 guys in his last 2 starts). In just his last 3 starts he owns a 5.17 ERA and 1.914 WHIP. Yankees are 27-9 over the last 2 seasons on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 and a perfect 7-0 (home or away) when priced in that range this season. Take New York! |
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04-30-19 | Reds v. Mets +106 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 106 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
5* NL Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on Mets + I think it's worth going big on New York tonight. No way should the Mets be a home dog against a team like Cincinnati. I get the Reds have a promising young starter on the mound in Luis Castillo, but he's got a bad offense behind him. The Reds as a team have a pathetic .213 batting average and a .280 on-base percentage. It gets even worse when they are matched up against a left-handed starter. Cincinnati is scoring just 3.2 run/game and hitting .197 as a team vs south paw starters. Mets will have lefty Jason Vargas on the mound and he's off back-to-back strong outings. Reds are also a mere 19-40 (32%) in their last 59 road games when listed anywhere from +125 to -125. Take New York! |
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04-30-19 | Bruins v. Blue Jackets -110 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 30 h 43 m | Show | |
3* NHL Playoffs Money Line ANNIHILATOR on Blue Jackets - Love the value here with Columbus at basically a pick'em on the money line at home against the Bruins. The Blue Jackets surprised everyone by sweeping the President Trophy winners (Tampa Bay) and proved it was no fluke by splitting the first two on the road in Boston. They could have easily won Game 1, as they were up a goal in the 3rd period before losing in OT. Blue Jackets have won 7 of their last 8 at home and will add to that total with a victory tonight. Take Columbus! |
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04-29-19 | Orioles +122 v. White Sox | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
4* MLB Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE WEEK on Orioles + Baltimore is an easy play for me on Monday. I get the Orioles aren't a very good team, but neither are the White Sox. Chicago has just 1 more win than Baltimore on the season. It's been all or nothing for the White Sox offense. They come in averaging 6.0 runs/game over their last 7, but that's because they put up 12 runs twice during this stretch. In their last 6 they have scored 4 or fewer 4 times. I'm confident this won't be one of those outbursts for Chicago, as Baltimroe sends out one of the more underrated starters in the league right now in Jon Means. In 3 starts, Means has posted a sensational 2.08 ERA and 1.154 WHIP. That includes a start against these same White Sox, where he held Chicago to just 1 run on 4 hits with 6 K's in 5 innings of a 4-3 win. Take Baltimore! |
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04-28-19 | Celtics v. Bucks -7 | Top | 112-90 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 29 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf Semifinals GAME OF THE YEAR on Bucks - A lot of people are going to be quick to take the points with Boston, especially after watching the Celtics sweep the Pacers in the first round. I just think that's a huge mistake, as I not only think the Bucks cover the big number, but win here in a blowout. Milwaukee is 35-8 at home this season and in their two home games against Detroit in the first round, they won 121-86 in Game 1 and 120-99 in Game 2. A lot of people overlook just how good this Bucks team is defensively. Pistons shot a miserable 38.8% from the field against the Bucks in the first round. Boston won with their defense in their series with the Pacers, but stopping Milwaukee's offense will prove to be a much harder task. Bucks are 44-29 ATS as a favorite this season, which includes a 23-12 ATS mark when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take Milwaukee! |
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04-28-19 | A's -111 v. Blue Jays | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -111 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Oakland - Easy play on Oakland at this price. The A's are going to be highly motivated after losing the first two games of the series and needing a win to avoid the sweep. First two games of the series the A's faced two of Toronto's better starters in Stroman and Sanchez. This time they are up against Trent Thornton, who is 0-3 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.371 WHIP in 5 starts and is trending with a 9.23 ERA and 1.973 WHIP in his last 3 outings. On the flip side of this, Oakland will send out Chris Bassitt, who was outstanding in his first start on 4/22. Bassitt allowed just 2 hits and struck out 7 over 5 shutout innings. A's have won each of Bassitt's last 5 starts, while the Blue Jays have lost each of Thornton's last 5 starts. Take Oakland! |
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04-27-19 | 76ers v. Raptors -5.5 | Top | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 36 h 20 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors - Love the value here with Toronto at home, as this just has the feeling of a series where the home team is going to have a massive edge throughout. While both of these teams started out the first round with a Game 1 loss at home only to win 4 straight, I came away a lot more impressed with Toronto than I was with Philadelphia. The fact that Embiid is sitting out playoff games is a bad bad sign for the 76ers. Hard to believe he's not playing through some pain. He's the guy that really makes Philly so dangerous and I just don't trust them on the road without him at 100%. Two other key things in this matchup that I believe favor the Raptors is their depth and their defense. I think they have a massive edge in both areas of the game. Take Toronto! |
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04-26-19 | Rangers +155 v. Mariners | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
4* MLB AL West GAME OF THE WEEK on Rangers + Absolutely love the value here with the Rangers as a big road underdog against the Mariners. Seattle will have starter Yusei Kikuchi on the mound, but only for an inning or two, as they are going to make him an "opener" every now and then to help keep him fresh. No way should the Mariners be priced like this. It all adds up to an ideal spot for Texas to snap their 4-game skid. Rangers have a lot of fire-power on the offensive side of the ball and Seattle's bullpen leaves a lot to be desired, even with likely top prospect Justus Sheffield ready to spell Kikuchi. Seattle is just 1-6 over their last 7 home games and have lost 5 straight at home vs a right-handed starter. Take Texas! |
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04-26-19 | Pirates v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | 2-6 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
3* MLB Over/Under PLAY OF THE DAY on Pirates UNDER Hard to not like the UNDER in Friday's series opener between the Dodgers and and Pirates. Not only do we have a great starting pitching matchup with LA's Hyun-Jin Ryu against Pittsburgh's Chris Archer, but both offenses head into this series struggling at the plate. Dodgers scored just 10 runs in their 3-game series at Chicago, twice managing to score just 2 runs. That's now 5 times in their last 8 games that they have scored 3 or fewer. Pittsburgh hasn't scored more than 4 runs in 7 straight games and totaled a mere 3 runs over their final 3 games at home against the Diamondbacks. UNDER is 21-9 in Pittsburgh's last 30 games off a loss, 20-7 in their last 27 after giving up 5 or more runs and 38-16-4 in their last 58 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. UNDER is also 20-4-2 in the Dodgers last 26 home games vs a team with a winning record and 22-5-1 in Ryu's last 28 starts after they scored 2 or fewer runs last time out. Take the UNDER! |
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04-26-19 | Avalanche +125 v. Sharks | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 36 h 11 m | Show | |
4* NHL Playoffs Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Avalanche + Give me the Avalanche as a dog all day in Game 1 against San Jose. Colorado dropped the opener of their first round series against Calgary, but rebounded to win 4 straight to close out the series. I like for them to stay hot behind a surging offense and a stingy defense led by goaltender Phillip Grubauer. The Avalanche outscored Calgary 17-7 over those 4 straight wins. Sharks allowed 4 or more goals 4 times in their series with Vegas. Avalanche are 4-0 in their last 4 when priced as an underdog, while the Sharks are 1-4 in tehir last 5 as a favorite of -151 to -200. Take Colorado! |
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04-25-19 | Stars v. Blues UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
5* NHL Playoffs West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Stars UNDER I absolutely love the value here with the UNDER in the series opener Thursday night between the Dallas Stars and St Louis Blues. This is just too big a number with how good both of these teams are defensively. Dallas never allowed Nashville to score more than 3 goals in any game in their first round upset. St Louis only allowed more than 3 once in their upset of Winnipeg. It all stems from two really good goalies in the Stars' Ben Bishop and Blues' Jordan Binnington. UNDER us 12-4 in Dallas' last 16 off a division win, 16-3 after two straight wins and 12-0 in their last 12 winning 5 or 6 of their last 7. UNDER is also 10-3 in the Blue last 13 home games after winning 4 or more of their last 6 and 5-0 in their last 5 as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Take the UNDER! |
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04-25-19 | Indians +145 v. Astros | 2-1 | Win | 145 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
4* MLB Underdog PLAY OF THE WEEK on Indians + This is just too good a price to pass up on Cleveland. The Indians will Trevor Bauer on the mound for this one and he's been sensational to start out 2019. Bauer comes into this start with a 2.20 ERA and 0.979 WHIP in 5 outings. Houston has a big name on the mound in Gerrit Cole, but he's been off his game early. Cole is 1-3 and has a 5.22 ERA over 5 starts. Last time out he was torched for 9 runs on 9 hits and 3 walks in a mere 4 1/3 innings of work at the Rangers. Indians bats have started to come alive and Jose Ramirez is coming off a big game, which just might snap a massive slump he's been in to start the year. Indians are 6-2 in Bauers last 8 road starts, 4-1 in his last 5 series openers and 4-1 in his last 5 vs a team from the AL West. Take Cleveland! |
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04-24-19 | Clippers v. Warriors UNDER 235 | Top | 129-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH on Clippers UNDER I love the value here with the UNDER in Game 5 between the Warriors and Clippers. I'm not saying there won't be a lot of offense, I just feel like the number here is way too high with Los Angeles fighting off elimination and the Warriors surely motivated to end this series at home and get ready for their big showdown with Houston in the next round. We saw a much more defensive-minded contest in Game 4, as the two only combined for 218 points with a total at 236. I wouldn't be shocked at all if this thing stayed under 220 again. UNDER is 13-1 in the Clippers last 14 when revenging a home loss and 15-4 in their 19 road games this season against a team with a winning record. UNDER is also 10-3 in the Warriors last 13 home games and 17-5 in their last 22 when playing on 1 day of rest. Take the UNDER! |
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04-24-19 | Dodgers v. Cubs +112 | 6-7 | Win | 112 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Cubs + This is a great price to get Chicago at home. The Dodgers are perceived to be the team to beat in the NL and are simply overpriced because of it. No way should LA be favored on the road with how much the starting pitching matchup favors the Cubs. Chicago will send out veteran Cole Hamels, who is 3-0 with a 2.77 ERA and 0.846 WHIP in 4 starts. Hamels was outstanding in his last start, giving up just 3 hits with 0 walks and 8 strikeouts over 7 shutout innings. Dodgers will turn to Walker Buehler, who has struggled to build on a promising rookie season. Buehler has a 2-0 record, but owns an ugly 5.40 ERA. He's also got a 6.00 ERA and 1.333 WHIP in 2 road starts. Take Chicago! |
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04-23-19 | Mariners v. Padres -130 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show | |
3* MLB Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Padres - I think it's worth a shot here to back the Padres as a small home favorite. San Diego snapped their 6-game losing streak with a 4-3 win on Sunday and are going to be extremely motivated to carry over that success and close out this 8-game homestand on a positive. Padres will have a decent arm on the mound, as they send out Nick Margevicius for his 5th start of 2019. While Margevicius has a 1-2 record, he's got a strong 3.60 ERA and 0.900 WHIP. He's really just had one poor outing, as he has given up 3 runs on 9 hits in 3 of his starts. Padres had Monday off and that's worth noting, as they are 10-2 on the money line following an off day. Mariners are just 2-7 last 9 interleague road games and are 0-4 in their last 4 vs a tstarter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Take San Diego! |
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04-23-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 212 | 90-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
4* NBA Playoffs Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Spurs UNDER Each of the last 3 games in the series have gone OVER and it's resulted in the highest total of the series in Game 5. I think it's time to shift gears and bet the UNDER. Not only are we getting a few points of value, but we can count on both teams showing up defensively. With the series tied 2-2, both teams know that the winner of this game almost always ends up winning the series. I expect a very similar type of scoring output to Game 1, where the two teams combined for 197 points. UNDER is 23-12 in the Spurs last 35 when playing on 2 days of rest and 8-3 in their last 11 on the road. UNDER is also 13-4 in the Nuggets last 17 off a win and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 at home vs a team that's won less than 40% of their road games. Take the UNDER! |
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04-23-19 | Nets v. 76ers -7.5 | 100-122 | Win | 100 | 35 h 52 m | Show | |
3* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Sixers - After stealing Game 1 on the road, Brooklyn has lost 3 straight and are off both an emotional and physical loss in Game 4 at home, where the refs missed some calls late that could have changed the outcome. I think the Nets are in the state of mind that they got no chance because of how the officiating is going. That's not an ideal mindset going on the road in an elimination game against a team that simply is more talented. We saw the 76ers win convincingly in both Games 2 and 3 to take back control of the series and I expect a similar effort in Game 5 at home with a chance to put the series to rest. Take Philadelphia! |
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04-23-19 | Magic v. Raptors -11.5 | Top | 96-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on Raptors - I fully expect the Raptors to make easy work of the Magic and cover the big spread in Game 5 at home. It's been all Toronto since Orlando's upset win on the road in Game 1. Raptors responded from that loss with a resounding 111-82 home win in Game 2 and are coming off a 107-85 victory in Game 4 at Orlando. The Magic know they are done for and the Raptors should be plenty motivated to put an end to this series on their home floor. Factor in the massive talent gap between the two teams and it should all add up to a blowout victory. Toronto is now 9-1 ATS in their last 10 at home in the month of April and a perfect 9-0 ATS at home over the last 2 seasons when coming off a game where they held their opponent to 90 or fewer points. Take Toronto! |
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04-22-19 | Twins +173 v. Astros | 9-5 | Win | 173 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
4* MLB AL Money Line PLAY OF THE WEEK on Twins + I just can't pass up on a play here with Minnesota at this price. You know there's going to be value fading the Astros with how big a public team they are and this is no exception. Just no way Houston should be laying this much juice in this specific matchup. Astros will have Brad Peacock on the mound, who after a strong first start at Texas, was rocked for 5 runs on 7 hits in 5 inning at home by the A's. With the Twins swinging a pretty hot bat, I like Minnesota to put up a decent number here. Twins will counter with Jake Odorizzi, who is coming off a great start against the Blue Jays and is 3-1 with a 2.12 ERA and 1.112 WHIP in 5 career starts against the Astros. Take Minnesota! |
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04-22-19 | Bucks -12 v. Pistons | 127-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
4* NBA Playoffs Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Bucks - I don't love laying big numbers in the playoffs, but I got no problem backing the Bucks to cover a big spread in Game 4. Milwaukee has a 3-0 series lead and have completely dominated this series. They won 121-86 as a 15-point favorite in Game 1, followed that up with a 120-99 win in Game 2 as a 15.5-point favorite. The series moving to Detroit and the return of Blake Griffin didn't really change things for the Pistons. Milwaukee won Game 3 on the road 119-103, covering as a 9-point favorite. They did so with Griffin playing extremely well in his first game back and Antetokounmpo having a sub-par game, largely due to foul trouble. Not that I think there's anything Detroit can do here to extend the series, it's worth noting there is motivation for the Bucks to close out the series with their next opponent, Boston, having already swept the Pacers. Take Milwaukee! |
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04-21-19 | Blazers +6 v. Thunder | Top | 111-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Blazers A lot of people came into this series expecting the Thunder to advance without much problem. Portland had just recently lost Nurkic to a season-ending injury and McCollum was working his way back to full strength after a long absence. Blazers proved those doubters wrong by going up 2-0. Oklahoma City did manage to win Game 3 at home, but it took a huge game from Westbrook. I don't know that they can't count on that kind of performance again here, as they need him to be special to not only win, but cover this spread. Also, the Thunder shot 52% (15-29) on 3-pointers in Game 3 and still only won by 12. Blazers are 15-4 ATS last 2 seasons when revenging a loss of 10 or more points, which includes a 11-1 ATS mark when that previous loss came on the road. Take Portland! |
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04-21-19 | Diamondbacks -103 v. Cubs | 1-2 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 40 m | Show | |
3* MLB Money Line DESTROYER on Arizona Arizona snapped the Cubs 4-game winning streak with a 6-0 win on Saturday and I really like their chances of winning the series finale on Sunday. Cubs have been streaky this season and could see the offense struggling to snap out of their funk from yesterday's game. Arizona's Robbie Ray has owned Chicago in his brief career. Ray has a 1.88 ERA and 1.042 WHIP in 4 starts against the Cubs. He faced them twice last year and gave up just 1 run on 5 hits with 14 K's in 13 innings. Chicago is turning to back to Tyler Chatwood, who is making his first start since getting the boot from the starting rotation last August. I'm just not convinced it's going to be any better for Chatwood, who finished up last year with a 5.30 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in 24 appearance (20 starts). He's came out of the bullpen 4 times this year and owns a 6.00 ERA and 1.83 WHIP. Take Arizona! |
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04-20-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs -3.5 | 117-103 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
4* NBA Playoffs Vegas ATS NO-BRAINER on Spurs - Spurs should have no problem holding serve at home in Game 4 and taking a commanding 3-1 series lead going back to Denver. The Nuggets are lucky San Antonio isn't up 3-0, as they had to erase a 19-point deficit to sneak out a win in Game 2. What really stands out to me is the Spurs let the Nuggets shoot 52% from the field and 52% from behind the 3-point line in Game 3 and still won by 10-points. San Antonio is too good of a defensive team, especially at home, to let the Nuggets shoot that well again on their home turf. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) that are off a win by 10 or more and playing a team with a winning record are 41-14 (75%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take San Antonio! |
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04-20-19 | Blue Jays +132 v. A's | 10-1 | Win | 132 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Blue Jays + Toronto took the series opener 5-1 on Friday and I like them to carry over that momentum to another win on Saturday. This is also an outstanding price to get the Blue Jays off a win with a hot starter like Matt Shoemaker on the mound. Shoemaker is 3-0 with a 1.75 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in 4 starts. He will be facing an A's offense that is in quite the slump, scoring just 4 runs in their last 3 games combined. A stretch where they have only managed 14 hits. On top of that, Oakland will be starting Michael Fiers, who has a 7.06 ERA and 1.569 WHIP in 5 starts. Last two outings, Fiers has given up 12 runs on 14 hits and 5 walks in 6 2/3 innings of work. Shoemaker is 13-3 against the money line in his last 16 starts vs an AL team with a batting average of .255 or worse and the A's are 1-5 in their last 6 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Take Toronto! |
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04-19-19 | Mets +139 v. Cardinals | 5-4 | Win | 139 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Mets + Really like the value here with New York at this price. I get the starting pitching matchup looks to favor St Louis with Adam Wainwright throwing well early and Mets' starter Jason Vargas having really struggled in his first two outings. I just don't trust Wainwright at this point in his career and the Cardinals have not fared well against left-handed starters. St Louis is only averaging 3.7 runs/game and hitting .209 as a team vs a south paw starter. Take New York! |
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04-19-19 | Raptors -4.5 v. Magic | Top | 98-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors - Easy play here on Toronto at this price. I think a lot of the value here stems from Orlando's upset win of the Raptors in Game 1. I just think that result was more of the Raptors not giving the Magic their full attention, as they are without a doubt the better team and they know it. That loss got Toronto locked back in and they came out and absolutely dominated the Magic in Game 2. Sure the Magic are going to be fired up playing a home playoff game, but it's not going to be enough for them to pull off the upset. Much like we saw last night with Brooklyn, who also won Game 1 and was getting a ton of love going into Game 3. I would be shocked if this is close at all. Take Toronto! |
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04-18-19 | Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 237 | Top | 132-105 | Push | 0 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Western Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Warriors UNDER I think we are getting some big time value here with the UNDER after these two combined for 266. A lot of that had to do with the Warriors taking their foot off the gas after building up a 31-point lead. They let the Clippers score 40+ points in both the 3rd and 4th quarter. Expect more of what we saw in Game 1, when the two combined for just 125. That's an embarrassing loss for the defending champs and I'm confident they come out 100% locked in for Game 3, especially with them feeling the need to step up after the injury to DeMarcus Cousins. Not having Cousins on the floor definitely hurts the Warriors offense, but I also think it helps them defensively. UNDER is 12-2 in the Warriors last 14 when revenging a loss as a home favorite of 10 or more and 13-3 in Clipper home games during the 2nd half of the season, when facing a team that's outscoring opponents by 6+ points/game. Take the UNDER! |
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04-18-19 | Reds +150 v. Padres | 4-1 | Win | 150 | 14 h 21 m | Show | |
3* MLB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Reds + This is just too good a price to pass up on the Reds. San Diego is simply overpriced because of how lopsided this pitching matchup looks, as well as the Reds having one of the worst records in the game at 5-12 and have lost 4 straight. Padres Chris Paddack has a 1.29 ERA and 0.857 WHIP, but he's yet to earn a win and has not completed more than 5 1/3 innings. Cincinnati's Tanner Roark has a 4.30 ERA and 1.705 WHIP in 3 starts, but has gotten better with each start. Last time out he only gave up 1 run in 5 1/3 innings. He's made 4 career starts against the Padres and is 3-1 with a 2.89 ERA and 0.786 WHIP. Take Cincinnati! |
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04-17-19 | Pistons v. Bucks OVER 211 | 99-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Pistons OVER The Pistons and Bucks combined for 207 points with Detroit accounting for just 86 in Game 1. Some of Detroit's struggles offensively were a product of Milwaukee's defense, but the Pistons simply didn't shoot well. I think we are going to see a little more out of Detroit's offense in Game 2 and a big reason for that is it will be hard for Milwaukee to bring that same intensity on the defensive side after how lopsided it was in Game 1 (won by 35). Key here is that we are getting value on the total because of what happened in the series opener. OVER is 21-8 in the Bucks last 29 when playing on 2 days of rest and 7-3 in their last 10 off a SU win by more than 10 points. OVER is also 12-3 in the Pistons last 15 when revenging a loss by 20 or more. Take the OVER! |
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04-17-19 | Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 9.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
5* MLB AL East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Yankees UNDER Most are going to just look at the awful numbers of today's two starters and take the OVER without thinking twice. Boston's Nathan Eovaldi has a 8.40 ERA and 1.867 WHIP in 3 starts and Yankee's J.A. Happ owns a 8.76 ERA and 1.946 WHIP in 3 starts. Both of these guys are way better than those numbers and are going to start regressing back with some quality starts. Given the track record of both of these guys against the opposing side, I think we see both guys turn a corner tonight. Eovaldi has a 1.78 ERA and 0.758 WHIP in 5 starts vs New York, while Happ has a 3.33 ERA and 1.277 WHIP in 21 starts against Boston. You also can't overlook all the guys that the Yankees are missing in their lineup right now, as well as how much Boston's offense is struggling. Red Sox are only scoring 3.8 runs/game and hitting .228 in road games. Take the UNDER! |
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04-16-19 | Thunder v. Blazers UNDER 219 | 94-114 | Win | 100 | 37 h 30 m | Show | |
3* NBA Late Night Total ANNIHILATOR on Thunder/Blazers UNDER These two combined for just 203 points in Game 1 with a total set at 223. The books have adjusted quite a bit for Game 2, but not nearly enough. These are two teams that don't get the respect they deserve on the defensive side of the ball because of all the fire-power they have on the offensive side. What people also overlook is the lack of legit scorers that both teams have after their top guys. Westbrook (24) and George (26) combined for 50 and Lillard (30) and McCullum (24) combined for 54. Thunder also got 17 from Adams, while the Blazers got 20 from Kanter. Chances are we see a couple of these guys struggle in Game 2 and I wouldn't be shocked if this thing ends up under 200. Take the UNDER! |
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04-16-19 | Thunder +2 v. Blazers | Top | 94-114 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Thunder + I was on the wrong end of Game 1 with OKC, but that's not going to keep me from going big on the Thunder in Game 2. Portland got big games from all of their top guys in Lillard (30), McCullom (24) and Kanter (20). While those 3 combined for 74 points, the rest of the team managed just 30. I just don't think Portland has the fire-power to win this series and let's not forget the Thunder swept the regular-season series 4-0. Both Westbrook and George shot the ball poorly in Game 1 (4 for 19 on 3-pointers) and yet Oklahoma City had a chance to win the game. Keep in mind they also started the game down 14 in the 1st quarter. I expect a much stronger start for the Thunder and really expect them to win this one rather comfortably. Take Oklahoma City! |
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04-16-19 | Magic +9.5 v. Raptors | 82-111 | Loss | -100 | 34 h 1 m | Show | |
4* NBA Playoffs Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Magic + This is just too good a price to pass up with Orlando in Game 2. The Magic were as hot as any team over the final few weeks of the regular-season and pulled out a 104-101 win in Game 1 at Toronto as a 9.5-point dog. Kyle Lowry, who is notorious for not showing up in the postseason, didn't score a point in Game 1. History tells us the Raptors will bounce back in Game 2 at home, but I don't think it's going to be easy and this line is calling for a blowout. Toronto is just 17-31 ATS last 48 at home when revenging a loss and most of these non-covers have come because they were getting to much respect on the line, as the Raptors are winning by an average score of 111.6-106.7 in this spot. Magic have now covered 15 of their last 21 vs a team with a winning record. Take Orlando! |
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04-16-19 | Pirates v. Tigers +105 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
5* MLB Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Tigers + No way should Detroit be an underdog at home against the Pirates. I get Pittsburgh is off to a solid 8-6 start, but this is not a playoff caliber team. Neither are the Tigers, but I think we are seeing the Pirates overvalued here in Game 1 due to the Pirates coming off a series win at Washington. This is the third straight series on the road for Pittsburgh and it wouldn't surprise me at all if they lost both games at Detroit. I really like the Tigers in the opener, as they send out Matt Boyd, who has been sensational to start the year. Boyd has 29 strikeouts in just over 17 innings of work and has two games already where he's finished with double-digit K's. Pirates have scored 2 or fewer 5 of their last 10, so it's an offense that can easily be held in check. Pittsburgh is also a mere 9-25 in their last 34 road games vs a left-handed starter and have lost 6 straight road starts with Joe Musgrove on the mound. Take Detroit! |
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04-15-19 | Rockies +153 v. Padres | Top | 5-2 | Win | 153 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
5* MLB NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Rockies + Big time value here with Colorado in Monday's series opener against the Padres. The Rockies are simply not as bad as their 4-12 record and I believe yesterday's 4-0 win against San Francisco could light a fire under this team. That victory snapped a 8-game losing streak. Not exactly an easy spot here for San Diego, who just finished up a lengthy 10-game road trip with a loss to the Diamondbacks. Padres have just 1 win in their last 6 at home following a road trip of 7 or more days. Another thing is the Padres will send out Joey Lucchesi, who is coming off a miserable start at SF. He gave up 7 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks in just 4 innings. Lucchesi is a mere 3-12 in his last 15 starts vs a division opponent. Take Colorado! |
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04-15-19 | Nets v. 76ers UNDER 226 | 123-145 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
3* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Nets/76ers UNDER These two teams combined for just 113 in the opener, finishing well below the mark of 228. The books have adjusted a little, but not nearly enough. Brooklyn's a very strong defensive team and their intensity on that side of the ball really gave the 76ers problems. As for Philadelphia, I think they got a big wake-up call in the Game 1 loss. I think they went in thinking it was going to be easy to take down the Nets. They won't make that mistake in Game 2. Expect the 76ers to lay everything on the line, especially on the defensive side, to avoid going down 0-2. I just don't see this one coming close to the mark. Take the UNDER! |
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04-14-19 | Sharks v. Golden Knights -140 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
3* NHL Playoffs GAME OF THE WEEK on Golden Knights - Give me the Knights at this price at home all day long. After getting whooped 5-2 in Game 1 at San Jose, Vegas stole the momentum with a 5-3 win in Game 2. With how good this team has been at home, especially in big games, it's hard to not like your chances with the Knights in this one. Vegas has won 26 of their last 34 home games vs a top tier team with a winning road record. Knights are also 28-9 in their last 37 at home after playing the previous game on the road. Take Vegas! |
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04-14-19 | Thunder +145 v. Blazers | 99-104 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
4* NBA Playoffs Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Thunder + The books have made OKC the favorite to win this series and for good reason. The Thunder won all 4 meetings between these two teams in the regular-season and while both teams had strong regular-seasons, only OKC showed flashes of being good enough to win it all. As much respect as I have for Damian Lillard, he just doesn't have the supporting cast. CJ McCollum is still trying to shake of the rust from an injury that cost him a big portion of the stretch run and it's a really big blow not having the services of Jusuf Nurkic. Lillard is going to have to play out of his mind just to give them a chance and that still might not be enough. Take OKC! |
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04-14-19 | Phillies v. Marlins +159 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 47 m | Show |
5* MLB NL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Marlins + I absolutely love the value here with the Marlins in this one. Miami snapped a 5-game losing streak in a 10-3 win on Saturday. They had a season-high 18 hits, which is more than they had in their last 4 games combined. Usually when a team snaps out of a slump like what the Marlins were in, they keep it going, at least for a few more games. With Vincent Velasquez on the mound for Philadelphia, I like their chances of staying hot that much more. Phillies are just 7-20 in Velasquez's last 27 road starts, including a mere 1-7 record in his last 8 road starts vs a team with a losing record. Marlins have won 5 of Jose Urena's last 6 starts vs a division opponent. Take Miami! |
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04-13-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets -5.5 | 101-96 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
4* NBA Playoffs ATS NO-BRAINER on Nuggets - I absolutely love the value here with Denver laying what I feel is a really short number at home. The Nuggets didn't have the greatest finish to the season, but their primary focus was making sure they were fresh for the playoffs, not the No. 1 seed. I just think it has people sleeping on this team going into the postseason. For me this is all about location. Denver was outstanding at home, going 34-7 SU and 25-16 ATS. San Antonio was just 16-25 on the road this season. These two teams just played in Denver on 4/3 and the Nuggets absolutely rolled the Spurs 113-85. Props to Popovich for getting San Antonio into the playoffs, but coaching can only get you so far in the NBA. More times than not it comes down to talent and depth and the Nuggets are much better in both categories. Take Denver! |
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04-13-19 | Cardinals v. Reds +118 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 118 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
5* NL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Reds + I really like the value here with Cincinnati. While both teams are riding winning streaks, I really think the series against Miami lit a fire under this Reds team. Cincinnati outscored the Marlins 21-1 and will now be playing with a swagger. The offensive breakthrough was huge and I like their chances of staying hot in Mexico against veteran Adam Wainwright. Once one of the best arms in the big leagues, Wainwright has really fallen off in the latter stage of his career. He's made 2 starts in 2019 and has given up 5 runs on 9 hits and 4 walks. He just doesn't pitch well away from Busch Stadium. Coming into this season, Wainwright had a 6.45 ERA in 32 road starts and a 3.35 ERA in 32 home starts. So far 2019 has held true to those numbers. He lasted just 4 innings, giving up 4 runs on 4 hits and 4 walks at Pittsburgh then shutdown the Padres at home. Look for the Reds to do some damage at the plate. Take Cincinnati! |
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04-13-19 | White Sox +157 v. Yankees | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
3* MLB Early Bird Money Line SMASH on White Sox + Chicago snapped a 5-game losing streak with a 9-6 win in yesterday's series opener against the Yankees, bringing home quite the payday for their backers, as they were close to a +200 dog. I like them to carry over that success with another win as a decently priced dog on Saturday. Yankees have been decimated by injuries and the latest to join the list is catcher Gary Sanchez. I also have little to no trust in veteran starter C.C. Sabathia in his first start of 2019. White Sox have some really nice young talent at the plate and starter Ivan Nova has a 1.29 ERA on the road in 2019. Take Chicago! |
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04-12-19 | Brewers +135 v. Dodgers | Top | 8-5 | Win | 135 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
5* MLB Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Brewers + Love the value here with Milwaukee as a decently priced road dog against the Dodgers. It's been a rough start to the season for Brewers starter Corbin Burnes, but it's really only the long ball that's hurt him. He's not going to keep giving up 3 HRs per outing and I think the team confirming their commitment to him as a starter, might just be the confidence boost he needs to start pitching to his potential. The Dodgers scored 7 runs in a loss on Thursday, but prior to that had scored 3 or fewer in each of their previous 3 games. Let's also not ignore just how potent this Brewers offense is. Even if Burnes isn't at his best, there's still a great chance Milwaukee ends up on top. Brewers had yesterday off to get their minds right after being swept by the Angels and are an impressive 20-7 in their last 27 after an off day. They are also 23-9 in their last 32 off a loss and 11-4 in their last 15 vs a team with a winning record. Take Milwaukee! |
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04-12-19 | Blue Jackets v. Lightning -210 | 5-1 | Loss | -210 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
4* NHL Playoffs Money Line ENFORCER on Lightning - I got zero problem here laying the big juice with Tampa Bay in Game 2. The Lightning blew a 3-0 lead in a 4-3 loss in Game 1 at home. Tampa Bay learned their lesson and will not take their foot off the gas in what now has to feel like a must-win. Lightning are 42-14 as a home favorite of -200 or more and are 22-3 in their last 25 after a game where they allowed 4 or more goals. Take Tampa Bay! |
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04-11-19 | Avalanche +190 v. Flames | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 60 h 42 m | Show | |
4* NHL Playoffs Big Money VEGAS INSIDER on Avalanche + Love the value here with Colorado in Game 1 of their series against the Flames. We are basically getting the Avalanche at a 2-1 payout and I really like their chances of winning this game. I don't like how Calgary ended the season with back-to-back losses. This is also a team that I think could struggle with the pressure of the playoffs. Avalanche have won 8 of their last 11 and the Flames are a mere 1-4 in their last 5 when priced between -150 and -200. Take Colorado! |
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04-11-19 | Indians -128 v. Tigers | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 1 h 20 m | Show | |
3* MLB Early Bird Money Line SMASH on Indians - Cleveland should have no problem leaving Detroit with a win on Thursday. Indians ran into a bit of a buzz-saw in Tigers starter Matt Boyd on Wednesday, but had won 5 straight prior to that loss and I look for them to return right back to form. Cleveland will send out Shane Bieber, who was impressive in his first start of 2019. Bieber allowed just 2 runs on 2 hits with 9 strikeouts in 6 innings of work. I think he's a guy to watch out for this season and should have no problem keeping this Tigers offense in check. On the flip side of this, I look for the Indians to be able to get on the board early against Detroit starter Spencer Turnbull. Take Cleveland! |
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04-10-19 | Jazz v. Clippers -6 | Top | 137-143 | Push | 0 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Clippers - I love this spot and price with the Clippers at home against the Jazz. As of right now LAC is the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference and would have to take on the Warriors in the first round. However, with a win here and a loss by either the Spurs or Thunder, the Clippers would move up to the No. 7 seed and play the Nuggets. The even bigger key here is that while this games means a lot to Los Angeles, it means next to nothing for the Jazz. Utah is locked into the No. 5 spot and had their big tune-up game for the playoffs last night at home against the Nuggets, which they won 118-108. I would expect the Jazz to rest some guys and any key guys that do play, likely won't be on the floor for long. This has all the makings of a Clippers blowout victory. LAC is 17-8 ATS this season as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 13-5 ATS last 18 as a home favorite of 6 or less and 14-4 ATS last 18 when coming off a road loss. Take Los Angeles! |
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04-10-19 | Stars +160 v. Predators | 3-2 | Win | 160 | 60 h 46 m | Show | |
3* NHL Playoffs Money Line ANNIHILATOR on Stars + This is just too good a price to pass up on Dallas in Game 1 of the series against the Predators. The Stars won 5 of their final 7 games and will carry over that momentum against Nashville. Dallas won 2 of the 5 meetings in the regular-season and two of their losses were by a single goal. The Stars have one of the best defenses in the league and it's centered around goalie Ben Bishop. I think he steps up big here and the offense does just enough to secure a win and nice little payout. Take Dallas! |
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04-10-19 | Mariners -140 v. Royals | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
4* MLB Money Line NO-BRAINER on Mariners - I got no problem laying a little juice with the red-hot Mariners on the road against a bad team like the Royals, especially with the way Seattle is swinging the bats. The Mariners have scored 104 runs in 13 games. The next best is the Dodgers at 87 thru 12 games. Seattle has scored 6 or more runs in all but 1 game this season and have a ridiculous 56 hits in their last 4 games. I don't see the offense cooling off in this one, as today's game should heavily favor the offenses. Temps will be in the high 70's with the wind blowing out to left field at 15-20 mph. On top of that, KC is sending out spot starter Heath Fillmyer, who doesn't figure to go too long and will be turning over things to a Royals bullpen that has an awful 8.07 ERA and 2.041 WHIP in 32 1/3 innings of work. Take Seattle! |
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04-09-19 | Brewers -121 v. Angels | 8-11 | Loss | -121 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
4* MLB Late Night NO-BRAINER on Brewers - I'm not concerned at all with Milwaukee dropping the first game of the series to the Angels on Monday. Brewers had to travel way out west after just finishing up a huge home series with the Cubs the day before. I'm confident they bounce back with an easy win here. Brewers clearly have the better offense and will benefit from the DH in this series. I look for that offense to have a big day at the plate against Matt Harvey. Harvey was torched for 8 runs on 10 hits in his last start at home against the Rangers. Milwaukee counters with Freddy Peralta, who is coming off a masterful start at Cincinnati. Peralta allowed just 2 hits and struck out 11 over 8 scoreless innings of work. I expect more of the same against the struggling Angels offense. Take Milwaukee! |
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04-09-19 | Rockets -1.5 v. Thunder | Top | 111-112 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Rockets - I love the value here with Houston laying a small number on the road against the Thunder. The Rockets were just hoping to play well enough to get past the Blazers for the No. 3 spot in the Western Conference. They can officially lock up the No. 3 spot tonight with a win and in the process might pass the slumping Nuggets for the No. 2 spot, as Denver is a dog at Utah. Thunder have turned it around with 3 straight wins, but overall have not been playing well. They are just 9-13 over their last 22 games. Houston is simply the better team and with how much this game means to the Rockets, I just don't see them losing. OKC is 3-13 ATS last 16 vs a team from the Western Conference, 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games and 0-4 ATS last 4 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Houston! |
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04-09-19 | A's v. Orioles +165 | 13-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
3* MLB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Orioles + Big time value here with Baltimore as a huge home dog against the A's. The Orioles responded in a big way after getting swept in a 3-game series by New York, taking the series opener against Oakland 12-4 on Monday. A's have now lost 4 straight and are simply getting too much love here in the middle of a lengthy road trip on the complete other side of the country. Brett Anderson has pitched well for the A's, posting a 2.38 ERA in his first 2 starts. However, both those starts came at home and he wasn't nearly as sharp in his second start. Anderson has made 3 starts against the Orioles and his team has lost all 3, while he's posted a 7.54 ERA. John Means will be making his first start for the Orioles after being used as a reliever early on. I've been impressed with what I have seen and expect Means to fair well in this one. Take Baltimore! |
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04-08-19 | Texas Tech v. Virginia -115 | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
5* Virginia/Texas Tech NO LIMIT Top Play on Virginia - Virginia was the butt of every joke last year after becoming the first No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 seed. Just one year later they are poised to win it all, as I see the Cavaliers as the much better side in this one. I know both of these teams play a very similar style, the slower pace of play favors Virginia a little more, as I think they are the stronger offensive team. I also love how the Cavaliers keep finding a way to pull out these wins late in games. Cavaliers are also 16-5 ATS last 21 after failing to cover their previous contest and 20-9 in their last 29 off a win. Red Raiders have not had much luck against the best conference in the country, as they are just 1-6 ATS last 7 vs a team from the ACC. Take Virginia! |
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04-08-19 | A's -129 v. Orioles | 4-12 | Loss | -129 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
3* MLB Vegas Oddsmakers ERROR on A's - This is just too good a price to pass up with Oakland as a small road favorite against the Orioles. Baltimore was just swept at home by rival New York and have lost 4 straight overall. A's were also swept over the weekend, but that was at Houston and two of those defeats came by a single run. I got a lot more confidence in Oakland bouncing back in the series opener on Monday. A's will send out Marco Estrada, who has a 2.76 ERA and 0.796 WHIP in 3 starts. He's also 9-3 with a 3.41 ERA in 17 starts vs the Orioles. Oakland has gone 40-14 in their last 54 vs a team with a losing record, 25-10 in their last 35 off a SU loss and 47-22 in their last 69 vs a starter with a WHIP great than 1.30. Orioles are 11-42 last 53 during Game 1 of a series, including a 1-7 mark in their last 8 series openers with Andrew Cashner on the mound. Take Oakland! |
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04-07-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers -3 | Top | 108-115 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show |
5* NBA Northwest Division GAME OF THE MONTH on Blazers - Easy play here on the Blazers as a small home favorite against the Nuggets. Denver is pretty much locked into the No. 2 seed in the west and are expected to give a number of guys the day off on Sunday to make sure they are fresh for the playoffs. Jamal Murray, Paul Millsap and Nikola Jokic are all out for this one. While Denver is playing without 3 of their better players, Portland is welcoming back one of theirs, as C.J. McCollum is expected to return from injury. I'm confident the Blazers not only cover this spread, but do so in convincing fashion. Take Portland! |
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04-07-19 | Yankees v. Orioles +173 | 15-3 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 3 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Orioles + Big time value with Baltimore as a massive home dog against division rival New York. Yankees have won the first two in the series, so we should get a big effort here from the Orioles to avoid the sweep. The even bigger key here is the guy Baltimore has on the mound. David Hess was really good in his first start of 2019. He had 8 strikeouts over 6 1/3 scoreless innings and didn't allow a single hit while he was out there. If the Orioles weren't so bad last year and Hess was a little bigger name, no way would the Orioles be priced like this. Have to take a shot here with the home team. Take Baltimore! |
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04-06-19 | Cubs v. Brewers -115 | Top | 14-8 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
5* MLB NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Brewers - I can't believe how much respect the Cubs are still getting from the books with how bad they have been to start out 2019. Chicago is 1-6 and while the offense is producing at a decent level, the pitching has been atrocious. After giving up 13 runs on 15 hits in yesterday's series opening loss, the Cubs now own a 7.85 ERA and opposing teams are hitting a ridiculous .321 against them. Hard to see it getting any better against this loaded Brewers lineup. Lefty Cole Hamels will get the start for Chicago and he was not good in his first outing. Hamels gave up 5 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks in just 5 innings of work at Texas. Milwaukee will turn to Corbin Burnes, who while giving up 4 runs in 5 innings, showed some promise with 12 strikeouts to just 1 walk. Cubs are a team that will swing and miss a lot. Brewers are 20-6 in their last 26 at home vs a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.3, 22-7 in their last 29 vs the NL Central and 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs a left-handed starter. Take Milwaukee! |
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04-06-19 | Auburn v. Virginia UNDER 131.5 | 62-63 | Win | 100 | 79 h 20 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Final Four TOTAL NO-BRAINER on Auburn/Virginia UNDER Absolutely love the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's Final Four action between Auburn and Virginia. I think the fact that the Cavaliers are coming off a game against Purdue that saw a combined 155 points and Auburn has really scored the ball well in their first 4 tournament games, has the number way too high for this one. Few teams, if any, are better at slowing down the tempo of a game and taking teams out of their comfort zone than Virginia. The Cavaliers also take exceptional care of the basketball and defend the 3-ball exceptionally well. Without easy looks from the outside and few opportunities in transition, Auburn is going to find it difficult to score. Key here is that the Tigers are a solid defensive team and this Virginia offense is far from a juggernaut. We saw the Cavaliers core just 53 against Oregon and 63 against Oklahoma prior to the 80 they put up against Purdue. UNDER is 15-6 in Virginia's last 21 away non-conference games and 20-9 in their last 20 with a total in the 130's. Take the UNDER! |
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04-06-19 | Nets +8.5 v. Bucks | 133-128 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
3* NBA Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Nets + I think the books have made a pretty obvious mistake here making the Nets this big of a dog when they are the only team with something to play for. With Milwaukee's win at Philadelphia on Thursday they clinched the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. They have absolutely zero incentive of trying in these last 3 games and will likely cut way back on the minutes of their top guys. Brooklyn on the other hand is in playoff mode. The Nets are tied with Detroit for the 7th/8th spots, but are just 1 ahead of Miami and 2 in front of Charlotte, so the postseason is far from a lock right now. We can expect everything they got in this one. I'll take the points for insurance, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them win this game outright. Take Brooklyn! |
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04-05-19 | A's v. Astros -151 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
5* MLB AL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Astros - Now is the time to jump on the Astros. Houston has gotten off to a slow start, as they are just 2-5 in their first 7 games. and have just one win since beating the Rays on Opening Day. A big reason they struggled is because they opened the season with 7 straight on the road. This will be their home opener and I could see them lighting up the scoreboard in their home park. They also have a strong starter going in Collin McHugh. He had 9 strikeouts in 5 innings in start No. 1 and only gave up 2 runs on 3 hits. A's have won 5 of 6, but 4 of those came against lefty starters, which they are better equipped to face. Oakland only scoring 3.2 runs/game and hitting .213 vs right-handed starters. McHugh also owns a strong 3.02 ERA and 1.157 WHIP in 11 career starts against the A's (9-2 team record). Take Houston! |
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04-05-19 | Raptors v. Hornets OVER 223 | 111-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Raptors/Hornets OVER The books completely missed the mark here. With Milwaukee's win last night, Toronto is locked into the No. 2 seed in the east. The defensive effort simply isn't going to be there, especially on the road. While the game means something to the Hornets, Charlotte has been playing little to no defense down the stretch. Hornets have allowed each of their last 4 opponents to shot 47% or better from the field and have allowed 50% or better in 3 of their last 6. Raptors might limit some minutes, but they are a deep team. I could see both teams scoring 120. Take the OVER 223! |
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04-05-19 | Hawks v. Magic -8.5 | 113-149 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Magic - I'm confident Orlando will make easy work of the Hawks and win here by double-digits at home. The Magic are in playoff mode right now, as they are fighting for their lives to get one of the final few spots in the Eastern Conference. Orlando is currently tied with the Nets for 7th and just 1/2-game back of Detroit for 6th. They are also just a 1/2-game ahead of 9th place Miami. Hawks have been playing well down the stretch. Atlanta is 8-2 in their last 10, but only 2 of those wins came on the road. They will be without two key players here with Bazemore and Huerter both listed as doubtful. Orlando is a perfect 7-0 ATS this season when facing a team that has a winning percentage between 25% to 40%. They have won these games by an average of 16.8 ppg (116.8-100.0). Take Orlando! |
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04-04-19 | Nationals +118 v. Mets | 4-0 | Win | 118 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
4* NL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE WEEK on Nationals + Most will be quick to back the red-hot Mets as a small home favorite with Thor (Noah Syndergaard) on the mound, but I think the value here is clearly with the Nationals. These two teams actually opened up the season against one another. New York won 2 of 3. The Nationals will be out for some payback, including starter Stephen Strasburg, who faced Syndergaard in Game 2 of that previous series. Both gave up 4 runs on 7 hits in 6 innings. Strasburg owns a 3.00 ERA and 1.090 WHIP in 18 starts vs the Mets. New York has only won 5 of Thor's 13 starts against Washington and Syndergaard has a career ERA of 3.65 in the series. Nationals are 13-3 in Strasburg's last 16 road starts against a team with a winning record and are a perfect 7-0 in his last 7 road starts against the Mets. Take Washington! |
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04-03-19 | Grizzlies v. Blazers UNDER 216 | 89-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Grizzlies UNDER I just don't see the Blazers and Grizzlies surpassing the mark set by the books. Memphis is only shooting 41% from the field over their last 5 games. They just lost Jonas Valanciunas, are already without Avery Bradley and aren't expected to have the services of Mike Conley. Grizzlies only scored 96 on 38% shooting last time out against the Clippers, which marked the first time since late Jan. that LAC held an opponent under 100 points. Portland is fighting the Rockets for the No. 3 seed in the west and they control their own destiny. They win their final 4 games and they will be the No. 3 seed. I expect a big effort here and chances are this thing turns into a bit of a blowout, which is always a good thing for the UNDER. UNDER is 7-2 in the Grizzlies last 9 on the road vs a team with a winning home record and 11-2 in their last 13 on the road with a total set between 210 and 219.5. Take the UNDER! |
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04-03-19 | Astros v. Rangers +183 | 0-4 | Win | 183 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
4* MLB Money Line VEGAS INSIDER on Rangers + This is just too good a price to pass up with a division dog. Houston is considered one of the best teams in the league, but are off to just a 2-4 start, as the offense is not producing at the level expected. Astros are scoring just 2.5 runs/game and have been held to 2 or fewer in 4 of their 6 games. So while they will have one of their better starters in Gerrit Cole on the mound, no way should they be this big of a favorite with how they are swinging the bats. Texas is 3-2 to start the year and just won 6-4 yesterday with Houston starting Verlander. Rangers offense has carried them, as they are scoring 6.0 runs/game. I know Mike Minor wasn't very good in his first start, but in his last 3 starts against the Astros he he completed at least 6 innings and gave up 3 or fewer earned runs. Take Texas! |
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04-02-19 | Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 220 | 102-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
4* NBA Late Night Total NO-BRAINER on Nuggets/Warriors UNDER This is a massive game this late in the year, as these two are fighting for the No.1 seed and home court advantage throughout the Western Conference playoffs. Right now the Warriors have a 1-game lead over the Nuggets, but a Denver win would not only pull them even in the standings it would make it a 2-2 series split between the two teams. I think both teams understand the importance of home court and will basically treat this like a playoff game. Add in the Nuggets scoring problems of late (scored 95 or less in 4 of 5) and this thing should stay well below the number posted here. UNDER is 12-3 in Denver's last 15 road games when revenging a road loss, 10-2 in their last 12 vs the Western Conference and 8-2 in their last 10 vs a team with a winning home record. UNDER is also 12-3 in the Warriors last 15 overall, 8-2 in their last 10 vs a team from the west and 7-1 in their last 8 at home. Take the UNDER! |