10-27-15 |
New Orleans Pelicans v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 214.5 |
Top |
95-111 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on NO@GS to go UNDER the total. The defending champions will open the season at home against New Orleans, who they defeated in the first round of last year's playoffs. The Warriors swept that series, but failed to cover in three of the four games, and both games at Oracle Arena.
They went on to face Memphis in the second round, and they won that series in six games. The Grizzlies gave them a scare though, winning two of the first three games. Prior to Game 2, the Warriors held a ceremony to present Steph Curry with the MVP award. The distraction really appeared to hurt the Warriors, who came out flat, and were out-scored 50-39 in the first half. After the 97-90 loss, Curry told the media that the pre-game ceremony may have taken him out of his routine.
We'll see a far more elaborate ceremony here on Opening Night, with the unveiling of the 2015 NBA Championship banner. This might serve as added motivation for the visitors, who should have a lot more to prove here. Anthony Davis is looking to dethrone Curry as the MVP of the league, and he sure looked good against the Warriors in last year's playoffs. The 22 year old averaged 31.5 points per game, shooting 54.5 percent from the field and averaging 11 rebounds.
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see history repeat itself here tonight, with the Warriors coming out flat after all the pre-game festivities. The under is 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings, and still we see an inflated number tonight.
Take UNDER.
GL, Jesse Schule
|
10-25-15 |
NY Jets v. New England Patriots UNDER 48 |
Top |
23-30 |
Loss |
-105 |
62 h 0 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on NYJ@NE to go UNDER the total. The Patriots are coming off a big win over the Colts in Indianapolis last week, but I think that sets them up for a let down here at home versus the Jets. This is by far the best team they have faced so far, and yet they are still being asked to cover a fair sized number. The Jets rank 1st overall in total defense, and they have allowed opponents to average just 187 yards passing per game. They went into Indianapolis in Week 2 and dismantled the Colts, winning by a score of 20-7. They picked off Andrew Luck three times in that game. Tom Brady certainly isn't expecting this game to be an easy one, and here is what he was saying during the week: "We've had a lot of close games with them over the years," he said. "A lot of situational football has come into play, a lot of two-minute drives and stopping them at the end, overtime games. Not too many games have really gotten out of hand." Nobody has been able to stop Brady this season, and the Jets will want to keep the ball out of his hands by holding possession with long clock killing drives handing off to Chris Ivory. The Jets star running back is averaging 5.5 yards per carry this season, and he's run for over 300 yards in his last two games. The Patriots defense hasn't had much success against the run, allowing opponents to average 114 yards per game. The weather could also be a factor here in Foxboro, as the weatherman is calling for a cold and windy day with a strong possibility of rain. That should play right into the hands of the Jets, who would be more than happy to grind it out in the trenches. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
10-25-15 |
Houston Texans v. Miami Dolphins UNDER 45 |
Top |
26-44 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 16 m |
Show
|
|
10-24-15 |
Connecticut v. Cincinnati UNDER 58 |
Top |
13-37 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 24 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on UCONN@CIN to go UNDER the total.
Paying close attention to the weather is just one of many tools at a handicapper's disposal, and this week it looks like several college football games will be effected by inclement weather. I won't bet on a game based on weather alone, so I am looking for games where several factors combine to give me a significant edge versus the bookmaker.
One of those games will feature the Huskies versus the Bearcats in Cincinnati. Here are a few things that caught my attention about this game:
- The weather forecast calls for an 80% chance of rain, with winds as high as 24 km/h.
- The total for Saturday's game is far higher than it was in any of the previous 10 meetings between these two teams.
- Cincinnati has played six straight unders versus teams with a losing record.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-24-15 |
Indiana v. Michigan State UNDER 61.5 |
Top |
26-52 |
Loss |
-106 |
20 h 23 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on IND@MSU to go UNDER the total.
Paying close attention to the weather is just one of many tools at a handicapper's disposal, and this week it looks like several college football games will be effected by inclement weather. I won't bet on a game based on weather alone, so I am looking for games where several factors combine to give me a significant edge versus the bookmaker.
One of those games will feature the Hoosiers versus the Spartans in East Lansing. Here are a few things that caught my attention about this game:
- The weather forecast calls for an 60% chance of rain, with winds as high as 29 km/h. - Michigan State ranks 70th nationally rushing for an average of 156 yards per game. They rely heavily on Connor Cook's arm, which could be neutralized by the wind here today. - The Under is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 home games. Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-24-15 |
Ohio v. Buffalo UNDER 53.5 |
Top |
17-41 |
Loss |
-109 |
20 h 18 m |
Show
|
This is a 9* play on OHIO@BUFF to go UNDER the total.
Paying close attention to the weather is just one of many tools at a handicapper's disposal, and this week it looks like several college football games will be effected by inclement weather. I won't bet on a game based on weather alone, so I am looking for games where several factors combine to give me a significant edge versus the bookmaker.
One of those games will feature the Bobcats versus the Bulls in Buffalo. Here are a few things that caught my attention about this game:
- The weather forecast calls for an 70% chance of rain, with winds as high as 34 km/h.
- The Under is 15-7-1 in Bobcats last 23 road games.
- The Under is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 games overall.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-24-15 |
Wisconsin v. Illinois UNDER 45.5 |
Top |
24-13 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 29 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on WISC@ILL to go UNDER the total.
Paying close attention to the weather is just one of many tools at a handicapper's disposal, and this week it looks like several college football games will be effected by inclement weather. I won't bet on a game based on weather alone, so I am looking for games where several factors combine to give me a significant edge versus the bookmaker.
One of those games will feature the Badgers versus the Illini in Champaigne Illinois. Here are a few things that caught my attention about this game:
- While there is just a 20% chance of rain, the forecast calls for high winds of up to 31 km/h.
- Wisconsin ranks 12th nationally in total defense, and has held opponents to an average of 10.9 points per game.
- The Badgers have played five straight unders, and Illinois has gone under in six of it's last seven home games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-24-15 |
Miami (OH) v. Western Michigan UNDER 56 |
Top |
13-35 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 11 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on M-OH@WMU to go UNDER the total.
Paying close attention to the weather is just one of many tools at a handicapper's disposal, and this week it looks like several college football games will be effected by inclement weather. I won't bet on a game based on weather alone, so I am looking for games where several factors combine to give me a significant edge versus the bookmaker.
One of those games will feature the Red Birds versus the Broncos in Kalamazoo. Here are a few things that caught my attention about this game:
- The weather forecast calls for an 80% chance of rain, with winds as high as 31 km/h. - The Under is 30-13 in Redhawks last 43 games in October. - Miami-OH ranks 125th nationally in total offense. Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-24-15 |
Bowling Green v. Kent State UNDER 59 |
Top |
48-0 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 15 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on BGSU@KENT to go UNDER the total.
Paying close attention to the weather is just one of many tools at a handicapper's disposal, and this week it looks like several college football games will be effected by inclement weather. I won't bet on a game based on weather alone, so I am looking for games where several factors combine to give me a significant edge versus the bookmaker.
One of those games will feature the Falcons versus the Golden Flashes in Kent. Here are a few things that caught my attention about this game:
- The weather forecast calls for an 70% chance of rain, with winds as high as 24 km/h. - Falcons quarterback Matt Johnson has thrown for 10 TDs the last two weeks, but that was at home. He had thrown just two TD passes in his last two road games. - The Under is 13-3-1 in Golden Flashes last 17 conference games. Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-24-15 |
Northwestern v. Nebraska UNDER 49.5 |
Top |
30-28 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 54 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on NW@NEB to go UNDER the total.
Paying close attention to the weather is just one of many tools at a handicapper's disposal, and this week it looks like several college football games will be effected by inclement weather. I won't bet on a game based on weather alone, so I am looking for games where several factors combine to give me a significant edge versus the bookmaker.
One of those games will feature the Wildcats versus the Cornhuskers in Lincoln Nebraska. Here are a few things that caught my attention about this game:
- The Wildcats have scored a grand total of 10 points in their last two games, and they rank outside the Top 100 in passing yards as well as points scored.
- Nebraska ranks in the Top 10 nationally in run defense, allowing opponents to average fewer than 100 yards per game on the ground.
- The wind is likely to put a damper on the passing game, as the forecast calls for winds up to 24 km/h.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-17-15 |
Arizona State v. Utah UNDER 56 |
Top |
18-34 |
Win
|
100 |
46 h 55 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on AZST@UTAH to go UNDER the total.
The Utah Utes have done what no other team in the country have come anywhere close to doing, and that is beating Michigan. At the time it didn't seem very significant, but at this point it's a signature win that could put them in the playoff picture. They host conference rivals Arizona State on Saturday night, in a game that has revenge written all over it. The Utes lost last season at Arizona State by a score of 19-16 in overtime.
With windy and rainy conditions on the forecast for Saturday night in Salt Lake City, we could see another defensive battle here this time around. That would seem to play into the hands of the home team, who have one of the top running backs in the country. Devontae Booker ran for 222 yards and two TDs at home versus California last week.
Utah also picked off California's stud quarterback Jared Goff five times, giving them 12 interceptions total this season, tied for second in the country. The Sun Devils are 0-9 all time on the road versus Top 5 teams, and they've gone under in five of their last six overall.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-17-15 |
Chicago Cubs v. New York Mets OVER 6.5 |
Top |
2-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
15 h 23 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CHC@NYM to go OVER the total.
The Cubs were shutout in Game 1 of the NLDS in St. Louis, but then their bats came alive powering them to three straight wins. All three of those games went over the number, and my money is on the over here in Game 1.
Jon Lester will toe the slab for Chicago, and he was on the wrong side of a 4-0 loss in St. Louis. He gave up three runs on five hits over 7 1/3 innings in the loss. Seven of his 11 wins this season came at home, and his day/night splits show that he posted a losing record (5-7) with a 3.80 ERA in 17 starts under the lights.
The Mets hand the ball to Matt Harvey, who might be on a short leash with an innings limit. He went five innings in Game 3 of the NLDS versus LA, giving up three runs on seven hits and a pair of walks in a 13-7 win. The Mets have gone over the total in seven of Harvey's last eight starts.
The weather forecast is calling for a slight wind blowing out to center field, and that could give hitters a slight edge.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-17-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays v. Kansas City Royals OVER 7.5 |
Top |
3-6 |
Win
|
110 |
11 h 22 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TOR@KC to go OVER the total.
The Blue Jays are down 1-0 in the ALCS after losing Game 1 by a score of 5-0. They send ace David Price to the mound in Game 2, but this doesn't appear to be an ideal situation for the southpaw.
Price (18-5, 2.45 ERA) was roughed up in both his previous appearances this post-season, and he gave up three runs on six hits in three innings out of the bullpen in Game 4 at Texas. He surrendered five runs on five hits, including a pair of home runs losing Game 1 of the ALDS. He owns a 5.23 ERA in the post-season all time, and he's been hit hard by Kansas City. The Royals lineup has hit a combined .293 over 133 at bats against Price.
Kansas City will hand the ball to Yordano Ventura, and like Price he's been roughed up in both his appearances in these playoffs. He allowed three runs on four hits, including a pair of home runs in five innings, not factoring in the decision in a 9-6 win over Houston in Game 4 of the division series. He only lasted two innings in a loss to Houston in Game 1.
The Jays have gone over the total at a rate of 6-2-1 in their last nine road games, and I expect to see both these two pitchers give up a few runs here in Game 2.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-11-15 |
New Orleans Saints v. Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 49.5 |
|
17-39 |
Loss |
-108 |
9 h 41 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #NFL play on NO@PHI to go UNDER the total. The Saints finally picked up their first win of the season at home to Dallas last week, when Drew Brees found a wide open C.J. Spiller for a game winning touchdown in overtime. Brees has been taking a beating this season behind a banged up offensive line, and those issues are still a great concern heading into this game in Philly. He was sacked three times last week, and he was forced to sit out the previous week after suffering a shoulder injury.
The Eagles offense hasn't been able to get off the ground, and poor play on the offensive line has been largely to blame. Sam Bradford was sacked five times for a loss of 37 yards in the loss to the Redskins last week, and they were also backed up 72 yards by penalties.
This game features one of the highest totals on the board this week, and with both of these offenses decimated by injury, I am not sure where all the points are going to come from. Chip Kelly has been on the hot seat after a rough start, and his handling of DeMarco Murray has been one of the more prominent issues. Kelly is as stubborn as they come, but he might just be tempted to lean on the run this week, as New Orleans ranks among the worst in the league in run defense.
Establishing the run would also be a good idea for the Saints, who can't afford to have Drew Brees take any more unnecessary hits. Mark Ingram ran for 77 yards on 17 carries last week, and he and C.J. Spiller could get plenty of touches here on the road.
The Eagles haven't gone over the total yet this season, and yet bettors are still lining up to bet the over, resulting in an inflated number.
Take UNDER.
GL
Jesse Schule
|
10-09-15 |
Houston Astros v. Kansas City Royals UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
4-5 |
Loss |
-116 |
3 h 0 m |
Show
|
This is an 10* play on HOU@KC to go Under.
The Royals lost Game 1 at home by a score of 5-2 after a rain delay last night, but I think they are in a good spot with Johnny Ceuto on the mound in a matinee in Game 2.
Ceuto (11-13, 3.44 ERA) allowed one run on six hits over five innings in a win over the Twins in Minny in his last start of the season. He struggled after arriving in Kansas City, but he seems to be back on track, coming off four consecutive quality starts. His day/night splits aren't as dramatic this season, but he's been one of the best in the business in day games throughout his career. He was 25-4 with a 1.78 ERA in 37 starts in the afternoon over the last three seasons.
The Astros hand the ball to Scott Kazmir, who is also quite comfortable pitching in the afternoon. Kazmir (7-11, 3.10 ERA) has really struggled in the second half of the season, going 2-6 with a 3.86 ERA in his last 14 starts. The under is 5-0-2 in Kazmirs last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
The Royals have won five straight versus left-handed starters, and they have gone under at a rate of 36-12-5 in their last 53 vs. a team with a winning record.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-09-15 |
Texas Rangers v. Toronto Blue Jays UNDER 8 |
|
6-4 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on TEX@TOR to go under the total. The Texas Rangers upset the Toronto Blue Jays in yesterday's ALDS opener, and now the Jays have their backs against the wall. We should see a pitcher's duel in Game 2. Cole Hamels (13-8, 3.65 ERA) will toe the slab for the Rangers making his first start against the Blue Jays for the season. It's a good spot for Hamels though who posted a 3.17 ERA in day-games during the regular season and went the distance while conceding only two runs on three hits in a 9-2 win against the Halos his last time out. The Blue Jays hand the ball to Marcus Stroman (4-0, 1.67 ERA) who's impressed since coming back from an ACL tear in his left knee, posting a 1.67 ERA over four September starts. Yesterday's loss puts a lot of pressure on the inexperienced 24 year old who's in his mere second year in the big leagues though, and Texas' has the firepower to hurt the best in the business, so why not young Stroman. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games, going under is 12-4-1 in the last 17 meetings. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
10-08-15 |
Indianapolis Colts v. Houston Texans UNDER 45 |
|
27-20 |
Loss |
-110 |
32 h 11 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on IND@HOU to go UNDER the total.
With or without Andrew Luck, the Colts are likely going to struggle in Houston on Thursday night. The Colts star quarterback has been terrorized by opponents this season, throwing more INTs (7) than touchdowns (5). He was unable to go at home versus the Jaguars, and Matt Hasselbeck threw for 282 yards and a TD in a 16-13 overtime win. Hasselbeck missed practice Tuesday due to illness, and it's still unclear if Luck can shake off a shoulder injury.
The Texans quarterback situation is no better, with Ryan Mallett completing just 12-of-27 passes for 150 yards and an INT in the loss to Atlanta last week. He is expected to start versus the Colts, despite his poor play so far this season. The Texans were hoping to have one of the best defenses in the NFL with stars like J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney, but they've struggled to stop the run.
Given the Colts quarterback situation, they might be better off looking to exploit the Texans poor run defense, that is allowing opponents to average over 115 yards per game. The Colts haven't had any success running the ball this season, but Frank Gore might their best option here in Houston.
These two teams have a history of playing low scoring defensive games, with seven of the last nine head to head meetings falling short of the total. The Colts won the most recent meeting by a score of 17-10 last December.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-06-15 |
Houston Astros v. New York Yankees OVER 7 |
Top |
3-0 |
Loss |
-113 |
18 h 17 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on HOU@NYY to go over the total. The Houston Astros looked like they could overtake the New York Yankees for home-field advantage but fell 5-3 at Arizona in the last game of the regular season. That sets up a good spot for the over here in the American League Wild Card game at Yankee Stadium. Dallas Keuchel (20-8, 2.48 ERA) will toe the slab for the Astros and while he's been extremely dominant home at Houston, he's not been quite as efficient on the road. Keuchel's 3.77 road ERA is more than two runs higher than his 1.46 ERA at Minute Maid Park and he's conceded 14 runs, 11 earned, over his last three road starts. The Yankees hand the ball to Masahiro Tanaka (12-7, 3.51) who's been dealing with a hamstring strain lately and conceded four runs and five hits and a walk in five innings of a 9-5 home loss against Boston his last start. He surrendered six runs on seven hits with three homers in five innings in his lone meeting with the Astros back in June and has given up plenty of home-runs this season (7 in his last 7 starts). Six of Keuchel's last eight starts have gone over the total and the over is 5-2 in the Yankees last seven games following an off day. The over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in the Bronx and we should see zoned in batters here in this massive game. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
10-06-15 |
Toronto Argonauts v. Ottawa Redblacks OVER 54.5 |
Top |
38-35 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 53 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on OTT@TOR to go OVER the total.
The Toronto Argonauts will host the Ottawa Redblacks in Ottawa tonight? No, that's not a mistake. The Argos got booted out of Rogers Center when the Blue Jays made the playoffs, so now they are playing a home game against Ottawa, in Ottawa. Not an ideal situation for a Toronto team that has really struggled to defense the pass in recent weeks. They are catching Ottawa at bad time, with Henry Burris throwing for a career 504 yards last week, and setting a new CFL record with 45 completions. He's the CFL's leading passer, with over 4000 yards, 300 more than second place Bo Levi Mitchell. The Redblacks have gone over in seven of their last nine overall, and both meetings with Toronto went over the total this season. The Argos have seen the total go over in four of their last five, and all signs are pointing to another shootout in Canada's Capital tonight.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-05-15 |
Detroit Lions v. Seattle Seahawks UNDER 43.5 |
|
10-13 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 8 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on DET@SEA to go UNDER the total.
The Seahawks shutout Chicago 26-0 last week, and despite their 1-2 record, people still consider this team a legitimate contender. I wasn't impressed with the win over the Bears, as once again the offense was limited by poor play by the offensive line. The Bears sacked Russell Wilson four times, and the Seattle offense only scored one touchdown. They kicked four field goals, and Tyler Lockett had a 105 yard kickoff return for a touchdown.
The return of Kam Chancellor seemed to pay immediate dividends, as they held Jimmy Claussen to just 63 yards on 9-of-17 passing last week. The Lions have really struggled on offense during an 0-3 start, and they were held to just 28 rushing yards in a 24-12 home loss to Denver last week. Matthew Stafford has been picked off five times while throwing for five touchdowns in three straight losses.
The Lions have a history of playing low scoring games away from Ford Field, with 10 of their last 12 road games falling short of the number.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-04-15 |
Oakland Raiders v. Chicago Bears OVER 44 |
Top |
20-22 |
Loss |
-110 |
129 h 1 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on OAK@CHI to go OVER the total. The young Raiders have won two of their first three heading into Sunday's game in Chicago, and they will be a slight favorite in this one. The Bears were shutout in Seattle last week, and backup quarterback Jimmy Claussen threw for just 63 yards on 7-of-19 passing. After opening the season with three straight losses, it looks like the Bears are already thinking about a rebuild. They dealt veteran defenders Jon Bostic and Jared Allen this week, and that has people speculating about pending free agents Matt Forte and Alshon Jeffery. I think it's only a matter of time before this Chicago team starts drawing comparisons to a heavy armored fighting vehicle carrying guns and moving on a continuous articulated metal track. In other words, their motivation to actually win games moving forward may be a little dubious. Oakland on the other hand has an exciting offense led by Derek Carr, who has passed for 726 yards with five TDs and just one INT during a 2-1 start. He has a talented young receiving corps with rookie Amari Cooper opposite Michael Crabtree. Latavius Murray ran for 139 yards and a TD in last weeks win over Cleveland, and he's averaging just under five yards per carry on the season. The defense is still a work in progress, allowing opponents to average an NFL worst 28.7 points on 414 yards per game. Their strength is a ferocious pass rush, and they sacked Josh McCown five times in Cleveland last week. That's bad news for Jimmy Claussen, as Bears quarterbacks haven't enjoyed much in the way of pass protection in recent seasons. The Bears have gone over in eight of their last nine versus teams with a winning record.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-04-15 |
St. Louis Cardinals - Game #1 v. Atlanta Braves - Game #1 UNDER 7 |
Top |
0-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 1 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on STL@ATL to go UNDER the total.
The Braves will wrap up the season at home against St. Louis, and despite a challenging season Atlanta can still finish with a winning record at home. They hand the ball to Shelby Miller in Game 2. If it wasn't for bad luck, Shelby Miller wouldn't have any luck at all. He might go down as the most unlucky pitcher of all time. He makes his final start of the season at home against the Cardinals, looking for his first win since he tossed a complete game two-hit shutout against Miami on May 17. He's 2-9 at home this season despite a 2.63 ERA in 16 starts. You have to think he's due for a win here at home versus the Cardinals backups in a meaningless game.
John Lackey will toe the slab for St. Louis, and the Cardinals are 3-8 in Lackey's last 11 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. These teams have played four straight unders, and the Braves have failed to reach the total in eight straight at home. I expect another low scoring game here today, and with St. Louis likely to rest players we might see another win for the home team.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-04-15 |
NY Jets v. Miami Dolphins UNDER 42 |
Top |
27-14 |
Win
|
100 |
140 h 47 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on NYJ@MIA to go UNDER the total.
The Jets have won two of three heading into this week's game in London, and their loss to the Eagles last week was a result of a combination of bad luck and poor execution on offense. They face a Miami team that is coming off back to back embarrassing losses. These teams are similar is style, as they both play a conservative style leaning on their defense. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games, with seven of the last nine in this series falling short of the total. Both these teams were terrible on offense last week, as Ryan Fitzpatrick and Ryan Tannehill each threw three picks. I'm expecting both teams to continue to struggle moving the ball here in England, and we should see another defensive battle at Wembley.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-03-15 |
Notre Dame v. Clemson UNDER 53.5 |
Top |
22-24 |
Win
|
100 |
34 h 21 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on ND@CLEM to go UNDER the total.
The Irish have managed to remain undefeated and stay ranked in the Top 10 despite losing their starting quarterback Malik Zaire and running back Tarean Folston. This will be their toughest test by far, and it won't be easy hanging with the Tigers at Death Valley.
After finishing first in the country in total defense in 2014, the Tigers are currently ranked 4th in yards allowed this season. Clemson has the advantage of additional rest coming off a Thursday night game last week at Louisville. The Tigers should be well rested and well prepared for this "must win" game for both teams. The winner will be a playoff contender, while the loser will likely drop out of the playoff picture.
The weather conditions could play a role in this game, as the forecast is for heavy rain and wind in Clemson on Saturday night. That will limit both teams in the passing game, forcing them to lean on the run.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-03-15 |
Bowling Green v. Buffalo UNDER 67.5 |
|
28-22 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 49 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on BGRN@BUFF to go UNDER the total.
The 2-2 Buffalo Bulls will be a big underdog at home to Bowling Green this Saturday, mostly because the Falcons quarterback leads the nation in passing with 1760 yards. Matt Johnson may not be able to air it out as often this week, with the weather forecast in Buffalo calling for heavy rain and wind during the game. The Falcons have won four straight versus Buffalo, but the last three of those game fell well short of the total. Neither of these two teams have played a lot of high scoring games in October, with the Falcons going under in 14 of 17, and the Bulls falling short of the number in seven of their last 10 in October.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule.
|
10-03-15 |
Texas Tech v. Baylor UNDER 89 |
Top |
35-63 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 58 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TTU@BAY to go UNDER the total.
The bookmakers are expecting a shootout in Texas this Saturday, as the total in the Texas Tech versus Baylor game is said to be the highest in college football history. Both these teams play a fast pace offensive style, and they have a history of playing high scoring games. Each of the last five meetings have gone over the total, with both teams scoring a ridiculous amount of points. That has caused the bookmakers to open with a total of 85.5, which the public has already bet up significantly. The last time I saw a total with this much hype was when Baylor played Oklahoma State in December of 2012, and that game ended with Baylor winning 41-34 (well below the expected total).
In order for these teams to combine to score 90+ points, we need a lot of things to go right for both of these offenses. It doesn't take much to slow the pace down. It could be penalties, injuries, turnovers, and all of a sudden 10-15 minutes has gone by and there haven't been any points scored. The Red Raiders starting quarterback Pat Mahomes was injured in the loss to TCU, and he wore a brace on his knee while finishing that game. The injury limited his mobility, and the Red Raiders were forced into running the ball a little more than they usually do. The word on the street is that Mahomes will be able to play, but if he's not able to do everything he normally does, that has the potential to slow the pace of the Texas Tech offense.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-02-15 |
Los Angeles Angels v. Texas Rangers OVER 9 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-103 |
17 h 32 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on LAA@TEX to go OVER the total.
L.A. has dropped to one game back of Houston in the AL Wild Card race after suffering back to back defeats. The Rangers clinched a playoff spot by winning Game 1 of this series, and they can clinch the division with a win tonight.
Martin Perez will toe the rubber for the Rangers, and he's been rather hit or miss lately. He pitched well in a loss to Houston his last time out, surrendering a pair of unearned runs on five hits while fanning six in six innings. He allowed just one run over seven innings in a 14-3 win over Houston in his last home start.
The Angels hand the ball to Jered Weaver, who he's been god awful on the road this season. Weaver is 3-10 with a 6.33 ERA in 14 starts away from home this season, and he was pulled from his last start after five innings because of shoulder soreness.
The Angels lost their closer Houston Street for the remainder of the season to a groin injury, and their bullpen has already cost them valuable points since his absence. The Rangers won Game 1 of this series versus LA by a score of 5-3, falling just short of the total. Low scoring games have been few and far between for the Rangers, who have gone over at a rate of 12-4-2 in their last 18 overall. They've also gone over at a rate of 6-1-1 in their last eight home meetings with LA.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-02-15 |
St. Louis Cardinals v. Atlanta Braves UNDER 7 |
Top |
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 13 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on STL@ATL to go UNDER the total.
The Braves will wrap up the season at home against St. Louis, and despite a challenging season Atlanta can still finish with a winning record at home. They hand the ball to ace Julio Teheran in Game 1, and the right-hander has allowed two runs or less in six straight starts. He's 7-2 with a 3.06 ERA in 16 starts at home in 2015. St. Louis will likely be resting players, as they've already clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
The Cardinals hand the ball to Jaime Garcia, who has had a fantastic season. Garcia (10-5, 2.36 ERA) has surrendered just two runs on 12 hits over 15 innings while winning his last two starts. Both of those wins came at home though, and he gave up 10 runs on 14 hits over 11 innings while going 1-1 in his last two starts on the road.
The Braves have won five of Teheran's last six home starts, and seven of his last 10 at Turner Field have failed to reach the total.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-02-15 |
Calgary Stampeders v. Hamilton Tiger-Cats UNDER 49.5 |
|
23-20 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 12 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on CAL@HAM to go UNDER the total.
The Stamps travel to Hamilton to take on the Tiger Cats in a rematch of last year's Grey Cup. Of course it was Calgary that won that game, and the Stamps have won eight in a row versus Hamilton since 2012. That really shouldn't be much of a surprise, considering the Western Conference has been by far the stronger of the two during that time. Calgary comes in as the top team in the West (and 1st overall in the league), while the Tiger Kittens lead the East. In normal circumstances you would think Hamilton might be a favorite at home, but not this week. Starting quarterback Zach Collaros is sidelined by an injury, and backup Jeff Matthews threw for just 157 yards and three picks on 12-of-20 passing in a home loss to Edmonton last week. I don't like Hamilton's chances of ending an eight game losing streak against Calgary with a rookie quarterback making his first start. That being said, Matthews isn't the only one throwing picks lately, Calgary's Bo Levi Mitchell has tossed seven picks in his last six games. These teams have failed to reach the total in eight straight head to head meetings, and each team has gone under in three of it's last four games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-01-15 |
Los Angeles Angels v. Texas Rangers OVER 9 |
Top |
3-5 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 39 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on LAA@TEX to go OVER the total. The American League West rivals Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers will close out the regular-season with a four-game series at Arlington starting Thursday night. Both still have plenty to play for with the Rangers looking to hold on to the division-lead and the Halos trying to overtake the Astros for the last wild card in the conference. All signs points towards a competitive and high-scoring encounter. Andrew Heaney (6-3, 3.29 ERA) will toe the slab for the Halos coming off three strong outings over which he's surrendered only four runs over 17 innings. He could be in trouble here though as the Rangers have hammered left-handers all season long scoring a big league's-best 275 runs against southpaws this season. The Rangers hand the ball to Derek Holland (3-3, 4.99 ERA) who has an 8.59 ERA over his last four starts overall. He conceded seven runs on seven hits and five walks over just 4 1/3 innings of a 9-2 loss to Seattle his last start at Arlington and has a 6.68 ERA in his last five home starts against the Halos. There are several Angels with good numbers against Holland; Mike Trout is 10-for-29 and Chris Ianetta 7-for-19. The over is 8-2-1 in the Rangers last 11 home games. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
09-28-15 |
Kansas City Chiefs v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 49.5 |
|
28-38 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 15 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on KC@GB to go UNDER the total.
We've seen the Packers put up some impressive point totals on Monday Night Football over the years, but I think the total in tonight's game looks a little too high. Green Bay isn't exactly at 100%, with Eddie Lacy banged up, and an offensive line that has struggled since Bryan Bulaga went down. Top receiver Jordy Nelson is out for the season, and the Packers are facing a fierce Kansas City defense that has eight quarterback sacks in it's first two games.
Aaron Rodgers isn't likely to have too much time in the pocket with Justin Houston and Tamba Hali breathing down his neck. Rodgers struggled the last time he faced the Chiefs, completing just 17-of-35 pass attempts and taking four sacks in a 19-13 loss back in 2011.
The Chiefs are likely to focus on establishing the run with Jamaal Charles, burning up a lot of clock in the process. They've gone under in five of their last seven road games, and with wind and rain in the forecast at Lambeau tonight, expect that trend to continue.
I'll add a rather BOLD PREDICTION... Rodgers hasn't thrown an interception at home since 2012, but I think there's a strong chance that this streak ends here tonight as he faces heavy pressure from one of the league's best pass rushers.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-28-15 |
St. Louis Cardinals v. Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 7 |
|
3-0 |
Loss |
-116 |
6 h 19 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #MLB play on STL@PIT to go OVER the total. Pittsburgh returns home after winning eight of 10 on the road, and they host the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 1 of a three game series at PNC Park on Monday. The Pirates have narrowed the gap in the standings, trailing St. Louis by just three games. Pittsburgh has won five of it's last six home meetings against the Cardinals, and they will have a favorable matchup on the mound in Game 1. Lance Lynn has a career ERA of 5.75 in 17 starts against Pittsburgh.
The Pirates have seen the total go over in six of their last eight home games, and the total has trended over at a rate of 6-2-1 in their last nine games versus St. Louis. We could see plenty of scoring in Game 1 of this series at PNC Park, as this looks like a tough spot for both pitchers. St. Louis is hitting a combined .308 over 93 at bats versus J.A. Happ.
Matt Holiday is still working his way back into the lineup after returning from injury. He's hitting .462 with a home run and three RBIs lifetime versus Happ.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-27-15 |
Jacksonville Jaguars v. New England Patriots OVER 47 |
Top |
17-51 |
Win
|
100 |
156 h 42 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on JAX@NE to go OVER the total.
The Patriots offense is firing on all cylinders heading into Sunday's home game versus Jacksonville. The same can't be said for their defense, that has allowed opponents to average over 400 yards through their first two games. The Jags are coming into this game off a home win versus Miami, and Blake Bortles threw for 273 yards and a pair of TDs in that game.
Tom Brady leads the NFL with 754 yards and seven TDs through the first two games of the season, and he's likely to put up big numbers here at home against this Jags defense. The total for this game looks a little too low when you consider New England's history of running up the score at home. They've gone over the total in 35 of their last 51 home games.
The Jags will have their work cut out for them trying to slow Rob Gronkowski, who has 207 yards and four TDs so far. I don't like their chances of doing what Seattle failed to do in the Super Bowl, and what Buffalo failed to do at home last week.
With a lack of depth at the running back position, New England only attempted 15 running plays last week. We should expect more of the same this week, and leaning on the passing game should result in another high scoring game.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-27-15 |
Oakland Raiders v. Cleveland Browns OVER 41.5 |
Top |
27-20 |
Win
|
100 |
156 h 41 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on OAK@CLE to go OVER the total.
The Oakland Raiders flashed an impressive offense in a 36-33 home win over Baltimore last week, but it was the second week in a row they gave up 33 points. We see a low number here in Cleveland, and I am not convinced that either of these two defenses is going to be successful.
Derek Carr has some new weapons at wide receiver, and it payed off last week to the tune of 351 yards and three TDs. Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper each went over 100 yards, with 16 catches between them. Latavius Murray provides enough of a running game to keep teams honest, and this Raiders offense appears to be the real deal.
Cleveland got a big game from Johnny Foobtall last week, but for some reason the Browns are choosing to go back to Josh McCown here on Sunday. The Browns should get their share of points facing an Oakland team that ranks dead last in total defense.
The Raiders have gone over in six straight versus opponents from the AFC, and in four of their last five on the road.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-27-15 |
Philadelphia Eagles v. NY Jets UNDER 47 |
Top |
24-17 |
Win
|
100 |
117 h 7 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PHI@NYJ to go UNDER the total.
The Eagles offense looked unstoppable in the pre-season, but they've had their wings clipped in the first two games of the regular season. It won't get any easier this week on the road in New York, facing the 2-0 Jets.
New York has terrorized opposing quarterbacks so far, picking off Andrew Luck three times on Monday night, and forcing an interception and four fumbles in Week 1 versus Cleveland. They are the first team in over 20 years to have five takeaways in each of their first two games to start a season.
That certainly doesn't bode well for the Eagles, who haven't been able to get anything going with their running game. Despite signing last year's leading rusher DeMarco Murrary in the off-season, the Eagles have run for an NFL worst 70 yards in the first two weeks. The offensive line has struggled, taking a ton of holding penalties and giving Sam Bradford very little time to get rid of the ball. Bradford has thrown four interceptions and just two TD passes during an 0-2 start.
Despite the fact that the Jets have been dominant on defense, we see a really high number in this game. I don't see Philly scoring enough points to push the total over here, and New York has a pretty conservative approach on offense.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-26-15 |
Arizona Diamondbacks v. San Diego Padres OVER 8 |
Top |
0-3 |
Loss |
-118 |
7 h 31 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on ARI@SD to go OVER the total. So much for PETCO being a pitcher's park. The Padres have been one of the best over bets in the majors this season. They are trending over at a rate of 91-57 overall, and they've seen the total go over at a rate of 16-6-1 in their last 23 home games. Robbie Erlin will toe the slab for the Friars, making just his second start of the season. The 24 year old southpaw was hammered in Colorado, surrendering seven runs on nine hits in just three innings in his season debut. He was 4-5 with a 4.99 ERA in 11 starts last year. The D'Backs will hand the ball to Jeremy Hellickson, who has been hit hard by the Padres. Hellickson (9-10, 4.73 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on three hits over five innings in a loss at San Francisco his last time out. He was rocked for six runs on six hits in 6 2/3 innings losing his only start versus the Padres this year. The total has gone over in each of Hellickson's last four starts versus San Diego. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
09-26-15 |
UCLA v. Arizona UNDER 64 |
Top |
56-30 |
Loss |
-106 |
100 h 22 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on UCLA@ARI to go UNDER the total. The Bruins narrowly escaped with a come from behind win at home over BYU on Saturday. For the second straight week freshman quarterback Josh Rosen struggled, throwing for just 106 yards with a TD and three picks on 11-of-23 passing. The Associated Press still has the Bruins ranked in the Top 10, ahead of teams like Oregon, Texas A&M and Alabama. With tough road games against Arizona and Stanford in the next three weeks, they appear to be vulnerable to an upset. The Wildcats gave them all sorts of trouble last season, limiting them to just three points in the first half of a 17-7 home victory. Arizona has knocked off Top 10 teams in each of Rich Rodriguez’s three seasons as head coach, and I like their chances of making it four in a row here this week. The Bruins will have to replace Myles Jack, while Arizona is expected to get Scooby Wright back after he missed a couple games with a knee injury. With Rosen struggling, expect UCLA to lean on it's running game, burning up the clock in the process. These teams only scored 10 points in the first half of last year's game, and I see no reason for a sky high total here this week. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
09-26-15 |
Texas Rangers v. Houston Astros OVER 8 |
Top |
7-9 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 36 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TEX@HOU to go OVER the total.
It's now do or die for the Astros, trailing Texas by 4.5 games after losing Game 1 of this three game series last night. I think we'll see a slugfest in Game 2 this afternoon.
Derek Holland will toe the rubber for the Rangers, and he's been getting crushed lately. Holland (3-3, 4.75 ERA) was torched for seven runs on seven hits and five walks in 4 1/3 innings in a 9-2 loss to Seattle his last time out. Prior to that he was rocked for five runs on 10 hits over 5 2/3 innings in a no decision versus Houston.
The Astros hand the ball to Collin McHugh, who has been hit hard by the Rangers. McHugh (17-7, 3.93 ERA) was torched for five runs on eight hits in just 3 2/3 innings in a loss to Texas 10 days ago. The Rangers are hitting .355 over a combined 94 at bats versus McHugh.
The over is 9-1-2 in the Rangers last 12 overall.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule.
|
09-23-15 |
Cleveland Indians v. Minnesota Twins OVER 7.5 |
Top |
2-4 |
Loss |
-115 |
28 h 16 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CLE@MIN to go OVER the total. The Twins took Game 1 of this home series versus Cleveland by a score of 3-1, but I expect to see more scoring in tonight's Game 2. Last year's AL Cy Young winner has been one of this year's biggest disappointments, with a record of 8-14 with a 3.44 ERA. He's winless in his last four starts, allowing 13 runs over 23 2/3 innings. His next start comes on the road at Minnesota Wednesday, and these teams have a history of playing high scoring games, going over in seven of the last 10 in the series. Kluber is just 3-7 with a 3.95 ERA in 15 starts on the road this year. Phil Hughes will toe the slab for the Twins, and he was sent to the bullpen after allowing three runs on six hits in just three innings in his first start after missing over a month with back pain. He's allowed 14 runs on 21 hits over 13 2/3 innings in his last four appearances. His next start comes Wednesday at home versus Cleveland, and he's 1-2 with an 8.44 ERA against the Indians this season. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
09-21-15 |
Pittsburgh Pirates v. Colorado Rockies OVER 10.5 |
Top |
9-3 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 22 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PIT@COL to go OVER the total.
The Rockies host the Pirates on Monday, and Colorado took two of three in a home series versus San Diego over the weekend. All three of those games went over the total, and eight of their last nine home games have seen the total reach double digits.
A.J. Burnett will toe the slab for the Pirates, and he's lost four straight. Burnett (8-5, 3.15 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on eight hits over 5 1/3 innings in a home loss to the Cubs his last time out. He's 1-2 with a 7.86 ERA in his last five starts, and he's allowed 11 runs in 12 1/3 innings in his last two visits to Coors Field.
The Rockies hand the ball to John Gray, who is still looking for his first major league win. Gray (0-1, 5.00 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on six hits over 4 2/3 innings in a loss to the Dodgers in LA his last time out. He's registered an ERA of 7.88 in four starts in Colorado.
The over is 15-5-1 in Pirates last 21 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-21-15 |
NY Jets v. Indianapolis Colts OVER 46.5 |
|
20-7 |
Loss |
-105 |
16 h 32 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on NYJ@IND to go OVER the total.
While it's only Week 2, this game already feels like a must win for the Colts. They were embarrassed in a 27-14 loss at Buffalo last week, but I like their chances of getting the offense going here at home against the Jets. They are hoping to have wide receiver T.Y. Hilton back, he was limited in practice on Saturday and is listed as a game time decision.
Both teams have some key injuries on defense, especially at corner. Antonio Cromartie is questionable with a knee injury, while the Colts secondary is really banged up. The Jets didn't score a lot of points last year, but they've got a different look on offense this year with Brandon Marshall, coming over from the Bears to play opposite Eric Decker. Ryan Fitzpatrick hooked up with both wideouts for TDs in a 31-10 win over Cleveland last Sunday.
The Jets ran for 154 yards in the win over the Browns, and the Colts run defense is likely to struggle again here tonight. Five of the last six head to head meetings between these two teams have gone over the total, and tonight's number looks a little on the low side.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-21-15 |
Chicago White Sox - Game #1 v. Detroit Tigers - Game #1 OVER 9 |
|
2-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 57 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #MLB play on CWS@DET to go OVER the total. The Tigers have been scoring plenty of runs lately, winning four of their last five, and going over the total in nine of their last 11. They host the White Sox in a matinee on Monday, and I expect to see a slugfest in Motor City.
Jeff Samardzija will toe the slab for the Sox, and he got just destroyed by Oakland his last time out. The 30 year old right-hander surrendered 10 runs on 11 hits in just three innings, losing by a score of 17-6. He signed a massive contract in the off-season, and has been a major disappointment. The White Sox had plenty of offers to unload him at the trade deadline, and surely they are second guessing the decision to keep him. He's 3-9 with a 7.49 ERA since the All Star break.
The Tigers hand the ball to rookie left-hander Kyle Ryan, who has appeared in 13 games this season, most of those appearances coming out of the bullpen. He's posted a 5.32 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP, and doesn't go deep into ball games when he does start. That's often a problem for the Tigers, who's bullpen ranks dead last in the American League with an ERA of 4.59.
Miguel Cabrera was 5-for-11 with five RBIs in the series versus Kansas City, and he's batting .363 at Comerica Park.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-20-15 |
Dallas Cowboys v. Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 55.5 |
Top |
20-10 |
Win
|
100 |
86 h 47 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on DAL@PHI to go UNDER the total.
The Cowboys needs a miraculous rally to beat the Giants at home in Week 1, but that game really should never have been as close as it was. The Dallas defense actually did a great job shutting down Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. Manning threw for just 193 yards with no scores on 20-of-36 passing. Beckham Jr. was held to five catches for 44 yards.
The Eagles came into this season with a hyped up offense that was supposed to score at will, but they managed just three points in the first half against the Falcons. Sam Bradford didn't look sharp overall, throwing a couple of picks and missing a couple of open targets that should have been easy touchdowns. DeMarco Murray was a non factor carrying the ball just eight times for a total of nine yards.
We see the total is sky high once again this week, despite the fact that the Eagles were grounded by the Falcons, and Dallas comes in to Philly without Dez Bryant. I expect to see both these teams try to establish the run in this divisional contest, and I don't think either defense is going to be giving up easy yards.
Philly's defense actually looked pretty good in Atlanta, picking off Matt Ryan twice, and holding the Falcons to 105 yards rushing on 35 carries (three yards per carry). The Cowboys have failed to go over the total in seven of their last nine overall, and none of those games saw a number as high as we see today.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-20-15 |
Oakland A's v. Houston Astros OVER 8.5 |
Top |
1-5 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 12 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on OAK@HOU to go OVER the total.
The Astros are now 2.5 games out of first place after losing four straight to the Rangers in Texas. The good news is that they are still 1.5 games ahead of the Twins for the final Wild Card spot, and they play their next nine games at home at Minute Maid Park. Houston will host the last place A's in a three games series over the weekend, and the odds are in their favor. The Astros have been a good bet at home, going 40-15 in their last 55 games in Houston.
Collin McHugh will toe the slab for Houston on Sunday, and he's 10-3 with a 3.84 ERA at home, and 6-3 with a 4.04 ERA in day games. He's 2-1 against Oakland this season, but he has eight runs on 17 hits over 17 innings in that game. The A's hand the ball to Aaron Brooks, who has been punished in all seven of his starts so far. Brooks (2-3, 7.68 ERA) allowed six runs on 10 hits over six innings, but still picked up the win over the White Sox his last time out. He owns an 11.20 ERA in four appearances on the road in 2015.
The Astros won 10-6 last night, and I think they'll take it in another slugfest here tonight. These teams have gone over the total in six of the last eight head to head meetings.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-20-15 |
Philadelphia Phillies v. Atlanta Braves UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 38 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PHI@ATL to go UNDER the total. Things have gotten ugly in Atlanta, as the Braves have not been at all competitive in the second half of the season. They've really struggled at home, losing 14 of their last 15 at Turner Field. They host Philadelphia this weekend, and the Phillies have lost 11 of their last 14 overall. The Braves rank dead last in the majors in runs scored, and Philly is just marginally better. With two quality pitchers on the mound here in a matinee, we should see a pitcher's duel.
Aaron Nola will toe the slab for the visitors, and he's been one of Philly's best pitchers. Nola (6-2, 4.11 ERA) tossed seven scoreless innings, fanning seven in a 5-0 home win over the Braves two weeks ago. He's now 2-0 with a 1.58 ERA against Atlanta this year, and 3-0 with a 3.48 ERA in day games. The Braves hand the ball to Julio Teheran, who is 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in three starts versus Philly. He's also dominant at home in Atlanta, with a record of 7-2 with a 3.23 ERA.
These teams have failed to reach the total in four of the last five meetings at Turner Field.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-20-15 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. New Orleans Saints OVER 47 |
Top |
26-19 |
Loss |
-108 |
156 h 33 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TB@NO to go OVER the total.
It came as no surprise to me that the Buccaneers were blown out at home in a 42-14 loss to Tennessee in Week 1. Here is what I said prior to the game: "If Bucs fans were hoping Jameis Winston would save the day, they are about to be sadly disappointed. I've never been a fan of Famous Jameis, who I think has always been overrated. They say he only lost one game in his two year career at Florida State, and that would be a lot more impressive if he played in the SEC. The fact is most of those wins came against cupcakes, making his stats in 2014 even more concerning. Winston threw 18 picks last year, the most of any quarterback ranked in the top 40 in passing yards in the FBS."
I expect the rookie to continue to struggle on the road in a hostile environment in New Orleans. He may have his moments though, as the Saints defense struggled in a Week 1 loss to Arizona, and they ranked among the worst in the NFL against the pass last season.
The Buccaneers defense made a rookie quarterback on a poor team look like a Hall of Famer last week, and this week they will face a legitimate Hall of Famer in Drew Brees. The Saints star quarterback led the league in passing yards last season, and he threw for 355 yards and a TD with one INT against a very strong Arizona defense on the road in Week 1.
He should be able to shred up this terrible Tampa secondary, and we should see a blowout in the Big Easy. The Saints have scored an average of 40 points in their last three home games versus Tampa.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-19-15 |
BYU v. UCLA UNDER 60 |
Top |
23-24 |
Win
|
100 |
44 h 45 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on BYU@UCLA to go UNDER the total.
The Cougars upset Nebraska with a Hail Mary pass in the dying seconds in Week 1, and then they did it again at home against Boise State on Saturday. These two victories have propelled BYU into the Top 25, and some are even calling the Cougars a dark horse playoff contender. It might be a little premature for BYU fans to start celebrating though, as they have a tough game coming up on the road at UCLA, and surely they can’t expect to execute a Hail Mary this time around. With a healthy Taysom Hill I might have believed this was a game they had a shot at winning, but I can’t see Tanner Mangum pulling another miracle out of his hat here in California.
The Bruins beat UNLV last week, but Josh Rosen and Jerry Neuheisel combined to throw for just one TD and three picks, completing less than half of their attempts. They face a Cougars defense that has looked pretty solid during a 2-0 start, with a total of four INTs on opposing quarterbacks so far.
Six of the last eight meetings between these two teams have gone under, and the Bruins have trended under at a rate of 5-1-1 in their last seven home games.
Take UNDER,
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-19-15 |
Kansas City Royals v. Detroit Tigers OVER 8.5 |
Top |
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 12 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on KC@DET to go OVER the total.
The Tigers defeated Kansas City with a walkoff single in the 12 inning last night, and it was their third straight victory. All three of those games went over the total, and I expect to see another slugfest in Detroit tonight.
Matt Boyd will toe the slab for the Tigers, and he's been getting rocked all year. Boyd (1-5, 8.02 ERA) allowed three runs on three hits and three walks over five innings in an 8-7 win over Tampa Bay his last time out. He's 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in three starts versus Kansas City, and 1-3 with a 9.36 ERA in seven starts under the lights.
The Royals hand the ball to Edinson Volquez, who has been roughed up by the Tigers this season. Volquez is 0-2 with a 7.31 ERA in three starts versus Detroit in 2015.
The Tigers bullpen ranks dead last in the American League with an ERA of 4.58 ERA.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-19-15 |
Northwestern v. Duke UNDER 49 |
Top |
19-10 |
Win
|
100 |
93 h 59 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on NW@DUKE to go UNDER the total.
After a 2-0 start that included a shocking upset win over Stanford in their season opener, the Wildcats have moved into the Top 25. Their defense has not surrendered a touchdown in the first two weeks, and they are on the road at Duke this Saturday. They have won six of their last seven versus Duke, and they’ve won five straight at Durham. The Wildcats are a 3.5 point underdog on Saturday. Northwestern DE Ifeadi Odenigbo told the Chicago Tribune after the Wildcats’ shutout win Saturday he expects them to do the same to Duke. In a game that I expect to be a hard fought defensive battle, it’s awful tempting to take the points.
Rather than pick a side though, I think the better play is on the total. Neither team is prolific on offense, and both teams take pride in playing strong defense. They have played four times since 2002, and not one of those games came close to reaching the total here for today's game. The Wildcats have seen the total go under in seven of their last eight non-conference games, and seven straight in September. Duke has failed to reach the total in eight of it's last 11 overall.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-19-15 |
UNLV v. Michigan UNDER 48 |
Top |
7-28 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 7 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on UNLV@MICH to go UNDER the total.
The Wolverines won big at home against Oregon State last week, and their defense continues to impress. I'm still a little hesitant to back this Michigan team as a big favorite though, as it's not going to be easy to run up the score without any serious threat in the passing game. Jake Ruddock didn't get into the endzone in the home opener, throwing for just 180 yards and an INT on 18-of-26 passing. He's now throwing twice as many picks (4) as TDs (2).
The Rebels are coming off a home loss to UCLA, but their defense gave the Bruins quarterbacks a bit of a tough time. Josh Rosen and Jerry Neuheisel combined to throw for just one TD and three picks, completing less than half of their attempts. The Rebels chose to run the ball 43 times, picking up 181 yards but only managing a late field goal to avoid being shutout.
UNLV is likely at risk of being shutout again here in the Big House, where the Wolverines have seen the total go under in four straight. Michigan has also failed to reach the total in five straight non-conference games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-17-15 |
Denver Broncos v. Kansas City Chiefs OVER 41.5 |
|
31-24 |
Win
|
100 |
82 h 40 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on DEN@KC to go OVER the total.
The Broncos are coming off a home win over the Ravens that didn't see much in the way of offense. This has people pretty down on Peyton Manning, who struggled at the end of last season and throughout the pre-season. I think it may be a little too early to count out one of the greatest quarterbacks in the history of the game. To be fair, Denver jumped out to an early lead in that game, and they were never playing from behind.
Also, the Bronco's conservative approach came as no surprise to me, here is what I said prior to the game: "I think this Denver team is going to have a different look in 2015. Rather than depending on Peyton Manning to carry the offense with an all out air attack, I expect more of an emphasis on the running game."
The total in this game seems far to low considering the short turnaround off a late game on Sunday. Traditionally we have seen teams struggle to execute on defense with less time to prepare for an upcoming opponent.
The Chiefs offense showed flashes of greatness in the pre-season, and they executed well in a 27-20 win over the Texans in Houston in Week 1. Alex Smith threw for 243 yards and three touchdowns on 22-of-33 passing.
These teams have gone under in three of the last four head to head meetings, but the total was at least a touchdown higher in all four of those games. They scored 40+ points in all four of those games, and only once did they fail to score more than the listed total for tonight's game.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-16-15 |
Detroit Tigers v. Minnesota Twins OVER 8.5 |
|
7-4 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 60 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #MLB play on DET@MIN to go OVER the total. The Tigers beat the Twins by a score of 5-4 last night, and I think we'll see another high scoring contest in the series finale tonight.
Ervin Santana will toe the slab for the Twins, and he's coming off three straight wins. Santana (5-4, 4.73 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on six hits over seven innings in a 6-2 win over the White Sox in Chicago his last time out. He's been far more effective on the road than he has been at home, going 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in four starts at Target Field. He was rocked for six runs on eight hits over just four innings at home versus Detroit back in July.
The Tigers hand the ball to rookie left-hander Daniel Norris, who has not impressed since coming over from Toronto. Norris (2-2, 4.43 ERA) allowed three runs on four hits, including a pair of home runs in just 4 1/3 innings in a no decision at Wrigley his last time out. He surrendered a dozen runs on 19 hits over 14 innings in his last three appearances.
The rookie doesn't often go deep into ballgames, which will likely mean that the Tigers have to go to the bullpen early. Detroit's relievers rank dead last in the American League with an ERA of 4.63 this season.
Victor Martinez was 3-for-4 with a pair of RBIs last night, and he's hitting .400 with a pair of home runs and five RBIs lifetime versus Santana.
Take OVER.
GL, Jesse Schule
|
09-15-15 |
Detroit Tigers v. Minnesota Twins OVER 8.5 |
Top |
5-4 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 27 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on DET@MIN to go OVER the total.
The Tigers lost by a score of 7-1 in the series opener in Minnesota last night, and I expect to see a slugfest in Game 2 tonight.
Alfredo Simon will toe the rubber for the Tigers, and he's been hit hard lately. Simon (12-9, 4.94 ERA) allowed five runs on nine hits over 6 2/3 innings in a 7-5 loss at Cleveland his last time out. He's 6-6 with a 6.19 ERA in 14 starts on the road, and 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in two starts versus the Twins this year.
The Twins hand the ball to Phil Hughes, who has been sidelined for the past month with a back injury. He was rocked for seven runs on nine hits over just three innings in a loss to Cleveland his last time out. He's 1-1 with a 6.19 ERA in three starts versus Detroit this season.
Miguel Cabrera owns Hughes, batting .472 with five home runs and 13 RBIs lifetime versus the southpaw. The Tigers have gone over at a rate of 33-16-2 in their last 51 road games.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-14-15 |
Philadelphia Eagles v. Atlanta Falcons OVER 53 |
Top |
24-26 |
Loss |
-110 |
677 h 0 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PHI@ATL to go OVER the total.
The Falcons will host the Eagles on Monday Night Football in Week 1, and we should expect plenty of scoring in this one. These two teams are both explosive on offense, but a little suspect on the defensive side of the ball. The Falcons ranked dead last in the NFL in total defense last season, and I don't like their chances of slowing down these Eagles here tonight.
Chip Kelly comes into this season with a new quarterback, and Sam Bradford looked great in the pre-season. He threw for 121 yards and three TDs on 10-of-10 passing in the Eagles Week 3 "dress rehearsal" game in Green Bay.
Matt Ryan threw for 448 yards and three TDs in the Falcons home opener against the Saints last year, winning by a score of 37-34. When Julio Jones is healthy, he's been impossible to stop. He's averaged more receiving yards per game than any other player in the NFL over the last two seasons. We can expect Jones to have a big day here against a Philly defense that struggled against the pass last season. Philly ranked 31st in the league against the pass, only Atlanta ranked worse.
The Eagles have seen the total go over in four of their last five road games, and I expect that trend to continue here in the dome in Atlanta tonight.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-14-15 |
Boston Red Sox v. Baltimore Orioles OVER 8.5 |
|
0-2 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 15 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #MLB play on BOS@BAL to go OVER the total. The Orioles took two of three from the Royals over the Weekend, and they hit a whopping 10 home runs in the series. Baltimore has seen the total go over in nine of it's last 12, while the Red Sox have trended over at a rate of 10-3-1 in it's last 14 road games. We could see more fireworks at Camden Yards on Monday night.
Eduardo Rodriguez will toe the slab for the Sox, and he's coming off consecutive impressive outings. Rodriguez (9-5, 4.05 ERA) allowed one run on eight hits over seven innings in a 6-2 home win over Philly his last time out. He's been far better at home than he has been on the road, and he's struggled against Baltimore going 0-1 with a 5.59 ERA in two starts.
The Orioles hand the ball to Kevin Gausman, who failed to get out of the third inning in his last start in Baltimore. Gausman (2-6, 4.43 ERA) allowed four runs on eight hits over 2 1/3 innings in a no decision versus Tampa Bay. He's 1-5 with a 4.18 ERA in his last 10 starts.
If the Orioles can't get to Rodriguez, they could do some damage against Boston's bullpen than owns a 4.42 ERA on the season, ranking among the worst in the majors.
Take OVER.
GL, Jesse Schule
|
09-13-15 |
Kansas City Royals v. Baltimore Orioles OVER 8 |
Top |
2-8 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 35 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on KC@BAL to go OVER the total.
We've seen a couple of slugfests in Baltimore in the first two games of this series, but with a pair of big name starters on the mound tonight, we see a low total for tonight's series finale. This looks like a tough spot for both pitchers though, and I expect another high scoring game.
It's been a rough start in Kansas City for Johnny Cueto, who has been lit up in his last four starts. Cueto (9-11, 3.24 ERA) has surrendered 22 runs on 37 hits over 20 innings in four consecutive losses. Three of those losses came at home in Kansas City, where he is 2-4 with a 4.50 ERA this season. His next start comes on the road in Baltimore, and the Orioles tagged him for six runs on eight hits in five innings in a home loss at the end of August.
The Orioles hand the ball to Wei Yin Chen, who has been hit hard in past meetings with Kansas City. Chen (8-7, 3.48 ERA) has allowed 10 runs on 18 hits over 9 2/3 innings in back to back losses. He's seen plenty of Kansas City in recent seasons, and the Royals are hitting .314 against him over a combined 188 at bats.
The Orioles have gone over the total in nine of their last 10 versus a right-handed starter.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-13-15 |
Baltimore Ravens v. Denver Broncos UNDER 49.5 |
Top |
13-19 |
Win
|
100 |
171 h 57 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on BAL@DEN to go UNDER the total.
The Broncos will begin the season at home against Baltimore, and I think this Denver team is going to have a different look in 2015. Rather than depending on Peyton Manning to carry the offense with an all out air attack, I expect more of an emphasis on the running game. I also believe they will have one of the league's best defenses with a healthy Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. The Broncos had a whopping 20 sacks on opposing quarterbacks this pre-season.
"It's going to be a work in progress through the year, too," vice president of football operations John Elway said. "We're not going to be kicking on all cylinders. We'd like to, but it's still going to be a work in progress with this offense and people are going to continue to get more and more comfortable with it, even after we start the regular season."
The Ravens have a revamped secondary with a healthy Jimmy Smith and newly acquired Kyle Arrington at the corners. "I think we're going to be a pretty darn good football team," Harbaugh told the Ravens' official website. "We're excited about where we're at, and I can't wait to see what we do when the games are for real."
While these teams have gone over the total in four straight meetings, the number in this game is higher than it was in any of those contests.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-13-15 |
Kansas City Chiefs v. Houston Texans UNDER 41 |
Top |
27-20 |
Loss |
-105 |
577 h 3 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on KC@HOU to go UNDER the total.
The Chiefs begin the season on the road in Houston, and I am expecting both these teams to dominate defensively. Kansas City has failed to reach the total in five of it's last six road games, and the Texans have seen the total go under in five of their last seven overall.
Both J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney are healthy and ready to go for Houston, and that's not good news for a Chiefs team that failed to throw a touchdown pass to a wide receiver last season. The good news for Kansas City fans is that they have Jamaal Charles (self proclaimed LeBron James of football). Houston's defense ranked in the Top 10 in the NFL against the run last season, and that was without Clowney. They could be even tougher this season, and as bad as they look offensively they will have to be.
The Texans quarterback situation has been an absolute nightmare in recent seasons, and it's tough to believe that Brian Hoyer is going to be the answer. He completed just 55% of his passes, throwing for a dozen TDs and 13 picks with the Browns last season. Arian Foster won't play, leaving him without a safety net in the backfield. Alfred Blue didn't inspire much confidence filling in for Foster last year, averaging just 3.1 yards per carry and totaling just two TDs.
The Under is 42-19-1 in Chiefs last 62 games on grass.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-12-15 |
Boise State v. BYU UNDER 55 |
Top |
24-35 |
Loss |
-110 |
115 h 19 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on BSU@BYU to go UNDER the total.
It was a bitter-sweet beginning to the season for the Cougars, who upset Nebraska with a Hail Mary pass, but lost start quarterback Taysom Hill for the rest of the season. The Cougars host Boise State on Saturday night, and the Broncos looked rather lackluster in a home win over the Washington Huskies.
New quarterback Ryan Finley looked pretty shaky, completing 16-of-26 passes for 129 yards and an interception. The defense did all the heavy lifting though, limiting the Huskies to just 179 total yards.
These two teams have a history of playing low scoring defensive battles, and prior to last year's meeting they had gone under in the previous three meetings dating back to 2004. One of those games was the most epic defensive battle I have every seen in college football, when the Broncos won 7-6 on the Blue Turf in 2012.
Tanner Mangum was the hero for BYU last week, throwing for 111 yards and a TD on 7-of-11 passing. He threw a 42 yard strike to Mitch Matthews with one second left on the clock giving the Cougars the win. The freshman has his work cut out for him here this week against a stout Boise State defense, and the Cougars are surely going to miss Taysom Hill.
These teams scored a ton of points in last year's meeting, but both teams have since had to replace their quarterbacks as well as their leading rusher. With both offenses missing that firepower, I think we'll see a far more defensive battle this time around.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-12-15 |
Oregon State v. Michigan UNDER 48 |
Top |
7-35 |
Win
|
100 |
83 h 50 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on ORST@MICH to go UNDER the total.
The Wolverines lost on the road at Utah in Week 1, and they return home to host another Pac-12 team in Oregon State this Saturday. The Beavers are adjusting to life without the PAC-12 All Time passing leader Sean Mannion, who was drafted by the St. Louis Rams. They focused on running the football in a 26-7 win over Weber State, and they ran for 281 yards in the victory.
We should see a defensive battle here in Michigan, as the Wolverines have one of the best defenses in the country, and the Beavers only allowed 178 total yards last week. Neither team showed much promise in the passing game, Jake Ruddock was picked off three times in Week 1, and Seth Collins threw for less than 100 yards for the Beavers.
Michigan is asked to cover an enormous spread when you consider it has failed to cover in nine straight against opponents from the PAC12. I think bookmakers aren't giving enough respect to this Oregon State defense, and I expect to see a closely contested defensive battle here.
The Wolverines have seen five of their last six home games fall short of the total, and they've gone under in four of their last five versus PAC12 teams.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-12-15 |
Houston v. Louisville UNDER 54 |
Top |
34-31 |
Loss |
-110 |
105 h 44 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on HOU@LOU to go UNDER the total.
Louisville lost 31-24 to Auburn in Week 1, but came away from that game with plenty of positives. They picked off Tigers quarterback Jeremy Johnson three times, limiting him to 131 yards on 11-of-21 passing. Their own offense didn't impress much though, with Reggie Bonnafon and Lamar Jackson combining to throw for just 167 yards on 17-of-33 passing.
The last meeting between these two teams was a 20-13 home win for the Cardinals, and I expect a similar result here this time around. Houston has failed to reach the total in eight of it's last 11 games versus a team with a losing record, and seven of it's last nine games in September.
The Cardinals have trended under at home at a rate of 20-9-1 in their last 30 home games. I don't think Houston is going to have much success here in Louisville, and I think these teams will struggled to score a combined 50 points. With a total in the mid fifties, I think the boomakers have made a mistake.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-11-15 |
Utah State v. Utah OVER 44 |
|
14-24 |
Loss |
-106 |
90 h 44 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on USU@UTAH to go OVER the total.
The Utes won a defensive battle at home against Michigan in Week 1 by a score of 24-17. The bookmakers are calling for another low scoring battle here on Friday night against rivals Utah State, but I think the number here is a little too low.
Since 2008 these teams have met four times, and the Utes have won three of those four games. The total in all of those games was set at 50 or higher, and three of those four games went over. The exception was a 27-20 Aggies win in 2012, which is still more points than the total for this game.
Chuckie Keeton did not look sharp at quarterback for the Aggies last week, throwing for just 110 yards and an INT on 16-of-33 passing. He threw for 314 yards and a pair of TDs against Utah the last time these teams met. He also ran the ball for 85 yards and a TD .
The total has gone over in five of the last six meetings in this series, and I'll take a stab at the over with an extremely low total here in this game.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-10-15 |
Pittsburgh Steelers v. New England Patriots UNDER 52 |
|
21-28 |
Win
|
100 |
38 h 27 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on PIT@NE to go UNDER the total. The Patriots are defending Super Bowl champions, and they open the 2015 season at home versus Pittsburgh on Thursday Night Football. Tom Brady has won his appeal against the NFL, and his suspension was overturned, allowing him to start here in Week 1. So everything is fine and dandy in New England? Well .. not exactly. Tom Brady has had a rough pre-season, on and off the field. Let's not worry about his personal life, and all the rumors regarding his marriage, and just focus on the fact that he didn't play very well at all in limited action in three pre-season games. Then you take a look at New England's offense without Brandon LaFell and LeGarrette Blount, and possibly Julian Edelman, it would be no surprise to see the 38 year old struggle here in Week 1. The Steelers aren't anywhere near full strength either, with Le'veon Bell and Martavis Bryant serving suspensions, and starting center Maurkice Pouncey sidlined with a broken ankle. Unlike New England though, they have decent backups at running back with Dri Archer and DeAngelo Williams. They also have more depth at wide receiver, with Markus Wheaton and Antonio Brown. I think Pittsburgh's offense will be good enough to keep this game close, not good enough to run up the score. Take UNDER . GL, Jesse Schule
|
09-09-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays v. Boston Red Sox OVER 10 |
Top |
4-10 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TOR@BOS to go OVER the total.
The Jays scored four times in the 10th inning in a 5-1 win at Fenway last night, evening this series versus the Red Sox. We should see more scoring here in Game 3.
Drew Hutchison will toe the slab for the visitors, and he was hammered his last time out. Hutchison (13-3, 5.07 ERA) allowed six runs on nine hits over five innings in a home loss to Baltimore. He's been consistently poor on the road, with an ERA of 9.00 in 11 starts.
The Red Sox counter with Joe Kelly, who is enjoying a seven game winning streak. Kelly (9-6, 4.84 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on five hits and three walks over six innings in a 7-5 home win over the Phillies his last time out. He hasn't had much luck against the Jays, going 0-1 with a 7.64 ERA in three starts.
Josh Donaldson is 6-for-11 with a pair of RBIs lifetime versus Kelly,
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-09-15 |
Baltimore Orioles v. New York Yankees OVER 8.5 |
Top |
5-3 |
Loss |
-114 |
12 h 4 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on BAL@NYY to go OVER the total.
The Bronx Bombers were silenced by the Orioles last night, and Baltimore evened the series at 1-1 winning by a score of 2-1. I think tonight's game will be a bit more of a slugfest.
C.C. Sabathia will toe the slab for the Yankees, and he's making his first start in over two weeks. Sabathia (4-9, 5.27 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on four hits and four walks over 2 2/3 innings in a home loss to Cleveland. He's 2-3 with a 6.07 ERA in 11 starts at home, and he's 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in two starts versus the Orioles.
The Orioles hand the ball to Ubaldo Jimenez, who has struggled on the road. Jimenez (10-9, 4.24 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on four hits and six walks in 5 2/3 innings in a win at Toronto his last time out. He was hammered in his last trip to Yankee Stadium, allowing seven runs on eight hits over 2 1/3 innings.
Alex Rodriguez has homered in three straight games, and he's 3-for-7 with three RBIs versus Jimenez lifetime.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-08-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays v. Boston Red Sox OVER 10 |
Top |
5-1 |
Loss |
-108 |
7 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TOR@BOS to go OVER the total.
The Jays lost Game 1 of this series at Fenway by a score of 11-4, but I like their chances here in Game 2 against a struggling rookie.
Henry Owens will toe the rubber for the Red Sox, and he's coming off a terrible performance in a loss to the Yankees his last time out. Owens (2-2. 5.87 ERA) was torched for seven runs on six hits, failing to get out of the second inning in a 13-8 home loss. He's struggled at Fenway giving up 16 runs on 20 hits over 15 2/3 innings in three starts.
The Jays hand the ball to R.A. Dickey, who has been dealing since the All Star break. Dickey (10-10, 4.09 ERA) went the distance allowing one run and striking out six in a home win over Cleveland his last time out. He's 7-0 with a 2.78 ERA in his last 10 starts.
Josh Donaldson was 3-for-4 with a home run in Game 1, and he's leading the majors with 115 RBIs this season.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-07-15 |
Ohio State v. Virginia Tech UNDER 53 |
|
42-24 |
Loss |
-109 |
13 h 42 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #NCAAF play on OSU@VT to go UNDER the total. The Buckeyes come into the 2015 season as a unanimous #1 in all the polls, and I think they are every bit as good as they are cracked up to be. They should be all fired up here in Week 1, with a chance to avenge their only loss of last season. The Hokies upset Ohio State in Columbus by a score of 35-21, and J.T. Barrett had his worst game of the season throwing three INTs. J.T. Barrett wasn't the only quarterback that struggled in last year's game, as the Buckeyes also picked off Michael Brewer twice.
That game went way over the total of 46, but we see a much higher number here in Blacksburg tonight. I think the value lies with a play on the under, as I think the defenses of both teams should dominate here in Week 1. The Hokies have seen the total go under in 14 of their last 20 games on grass, and 11 of their 13 games last season failed to reach the number that is listed here tonight. Take UNDER.
GL, Jesse Schule
|
09-07-15 |
Texas Rangers v. Seattle Mariners OVER 7.5 |
Top |
3-0 |
Loss |
-102 |
9 h 58 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Seattle Mariners.
The Seattle Mariners return home to host Texas after winning seven of 10 on the road. They've been scoring plenty of runs, and the total has gone over the number in seven of their last eight overall. That trend is even stronger at Safeco, where they have gone over at a rate of 21-4-2 in their last 27 home games.
Yovani Gallardo will toe the rubber for the Rangers, and he's won four straight. Gallardo (14-9, 3.27 ERA) allowed four runs on six hits over just five innings in an 8-6 win over the Padres in San Diego his last time out.
The Mariners will hand the ball to Roenis Elias, and the left-hander was rocked in his last start. Elias (4-7, 4.35 ERA) allowed four runs on five hits and four walks over 5 1/3 innings in a no decision versus Houston. Texas Rangers rank second in the major leagues in runs scored versus left-handed pitching.
Nelson Cruz has been sidelined for over a week with a quad injury, but he's hoping to return to the lineup on Monday in Game 1 versus Texas. He's 6-for-8 with a pair of home runs lifetime versus Gallardo.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-06-15 |
Los Angeles Dodgers v. San Diego Padres OVER 7 |
Top |
5-1 |
Loss |
-106 |
10 h 31 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on LAD@SD to go OVER the total.
Over the last few years, we've come to think of San Diego's PETCO Park as one of the most pitcher friendly in the majors. That's quickly becoming a myth here in 2015. According to ESPN Park Factors, PETCO ranks in the top 10 in home runs. The Padres are trending over at a rate of 12-3-1 in their last 16 home games, and yet still we see extremely low totals in San Diego.
Brett Anderson will toe the slab for the Dodgers in today's series finale, and he's never faced the Padres before. Anderson (8-8, 3.43 ERA) allowed three runs on six hits over five innings in a 5-4 win over San Francisco his last time out. Four of his last five starts have gone over the total.
The Padres hand the ball to Andrew Cashner, who has struggled in 2015. Cashner (5-13, 4.15 ERA) was rocked for four runs on eight hits in five innings in a home loss to Texas his last time out. He's 3-6 with a 3.63 ERA in 11 starts at PETCO this season, and 1-4 with a 4.92 ERA in day games.
Adrian Gonzalez owns Cashner, batting .367 with four home runs in 30 career at bats versus the right-hander.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-06-15 |
Chicago White Sox v. Kansas City Royals OVER 8 |
Top |
7-5 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 25 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CWS@KC to go OVER the total.
The White Sox have out-scored the Royals 18-2 winning the first two games of this series in Kansas City, and I think we'll see another slugfest in the series finale Sunday.
Johnny Cueto will toe the rubber for the Royals, and he's coming off three straight losses. Cueto (9-10, 3.04 ERA) has surrendered 17 runs on 30 hits over 17 innings in losses to Detroit, Baltimore and Boston.
The White Sox hand the ball to 25 year old right-hander Erik Johnson, who has been called up from Triple-A. He was 1-1 with 6.46 ERA in five starts for the White Sox last season.
The White Sox have seen the total go over in seven of their last nine road games, and 22 of their last 27 versus a right-handed starter. With the wind blowing out at Kauffman Stadiums, the weather conditions should favor hitters this afternoon.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-06-15 |
Philadelphia Phillies v. Boston Red Sox OVER 9 |
Top |
2-6 |
Loss |
-117 |
10 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PHI@BOS to go OVER the total.
The Red Sox crushed the Phillies on Saturday, winning by a score of 9-2, and they will look to complete the sweep at Fenway this afternoon. We've seen plenty of scoring in Boston lately, with 20 of Boston's last 26 home games going over the total.
Eduardo Rodriguez will toe the rubber for the Red Sox, and he's been great at home. Rodriguez (8-5, 4.25 ERA) allowed two runs on seven hits over five innings in a win over the Yankees his last time out. He's really struggled in day games, going 1-4 with a 9.27 ERA in seven starts in the afternoon. The Phillies hand the ball to rookie right-hander Jerad Eikhoff, who makes just his fourth career start. The 25 year old has surrendered seven runs on 10 hits in back to back losses to the New York Mets. The two teams have gone over the total in 10 of the last 13 meetings at Fenway.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-05-15 |
Texas v. Notre Dame UNDER 54.5 |
Top |
3-38 |
Win
|
100 |
392 h 32 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TEX@ND to go UNDER the total.
The Irish will host the Texas Longhorns in their season opener, and Notre Dame is a double digit favorite. I don't think Texas is getting enough respect though, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a close, low scoring game decided by just a few points.
While this is just the second season under Charlie Strong, I think the Longhorns are far better than people are giving them credit for. They were 6-6 last season, and five of their six losses came against Top 25 teams. The only exception was a home loss to BYU, a team that probably should have been ranked at the time, and would find it's way into the Top 25 shortly after.
They lost to #12 UCLA by just three points, and they came very close to upsetting #11 ranked Oklahoma in Dallas, losing 31-26. The Texas defense was quite good last year, while the offense was their weakness. Tyrone Swoopes returns at quarterback, after throwing for 2409 yards with 13 TDs and 11 TDs in 2014.
Malik Zaire will take over at quarterback for the Irish, after Everett Golson transferred to Florida State. He's got plenty of skills, but he lacks experience and this could be a tough opponent all things considered.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-04-15 |
Baylor v. SMU UNDER 74.5 |
Top |
56-21 |
Loss |
-110 |
84 h 6 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on BAY@SMU to go UNDER the total.
The Baylor Bears have scored more points than any other team in the country over the last two seasons, and that's why we see such a big number here tonight against an inferior opponent. There's no question that this is going to be a blowout, but I think that the bookmakers are being a little too optimistic about just how many points these teams can score in their season opener.
These two teams met in Week 1 last season, and the Bears shutout SMU winning 45-0. That was in Waco, and this time they will travel to Dallas. I don't expect the Mustangs to have much success scoring on Baylor's defense, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bear's offense show signs of rust with a new starting quarterback here in Week 1.
These teams have played each other 10 times since 1990, and Baylor has won every time. All but one of those games were blowouts, but only once did they combine to score more than 75 points.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-03-15 |
Philadelphia Eagles v. NY Jets OVER 44 |
Top |
18-24 |
Loss |
-106 |
60 h 7 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PHI@NYJ to go OVER the total.
The Eagles offense has been a lighting up opposing defenses this pre-season, which really shouldn't come as a surprise. Chip Kelly's team averaged well over 30 points per game while going 2-2 in last year's pre-season. As impressive as their offense has been, the defense hasn't been all that stellar. Last week in Green Bay the Packers played their third and fourth string quarterbacks, and they threw for 399 yards and three TDs.
This week we should see plenty of playing time for backup quarterbacks, but the Jets have one of the league's better backups in Matt Flynn. The former Green Bay quarterback has put up impressive numbers over his career in these situations, and he needs to have a good game tonight if he hopes to secure a roster spot.
Kelly's system is designed to move the ball quickly, without taking much time off the clock. It doesn't matter whether it's practice, pre-season, regular season or the playoffs, everything is at full speed. They beat the Ravens by a score of 40-17 in Week 2, without scoring a single passing TD. They scored 37 points in a win over the Jets in their final game of last year's pre-season, and I expect another high scoring game here tonight.
Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
09-02-15 |
Los Angeles Angels v. Oakland A's UNDER 7 |
Top |
9-4 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 39 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on LAA@OAK to go UNDER the total.
We could see a pitcher's duel on the West Coast this after, as Oakland hosts the struggling LA Angels. The A's will hand the ball to their ace Sonny Gray, while the Halos send a red hot rookie to the mound.
Gray (12-6, 2.13 ERA) allowed four runs (two unearned) on five hits over 6 1/3 innings in a loss at Arizona his last time out. While he's lost three straight, he still owns the American League's lowest ERA, and he's been particularly good in day games. Gray is 5-1 with a 0.97 ERA eight starts in the afternoon this season.
Andrew Heaney will toe the slab for the visitors, and he's also been at his best in matinees. Heaney (5-2, 3.11 ERA) tossed six scoreless innings in a no decision at Cleveland his last time out. He's 2-1 with a 1.85 ERA in four starts in day games.
The Angels rank dead last in the major leagues in runs scored during the day, and they are batting just .229 in the afternoon.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-01-15 |
Arizona Diamondbacks - Game #1 v. Colorado Rockies - Game #1 UNDER 11 |
Top |
6-4 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 27 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on ARI@COL to go UNDER the total.
While high scoring games are the norm at Coors field, the Rockies have seen the total go under in four of their last five home games, including a 5-4 win over Arizona last night. We have a couple of capable southpaws on the mound here in a matinee, and I think the total looks a little high here this afternoon.
Patrick Corbin will toe the slab for the visitors, and he's pitched well since returning from Tommy John surgery. Corbin (3-3, 3.78 ERA) allowed one run on three hits, striking out seven in six innings in a 3-1 loss to St. Louis his last time out. He defeated the Rockies earlier this season, allowing a pair of runs on eight hits in five innings. The southpaw is 3-1 with a 4.09 ERA in seven starts versus the Rockies over the last three seasons.
The Rockies hand the ball to Johan Flande, who is undefeated in his last 10 starts. Flande (3-1, 4.09 ERA) allowed three runs on six hits over five innings in a win at Atlanta his last time out. He's 2-0 with a 3.62 ERA at home, and he's 3-0 with a 3.86 ERA since the All Star break.
Both teams struggle against left-handed pitching, and runs might not comes so easy today.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-31-15 |
Texas Rangers v. San Diego Padres OVER 6.5 |
Top |
0-7 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 30 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TEX@SD to go OVER the total. Over the last few years, we've come to think of San Diego's PETCO Park as one of the most pitcher friendly in the majors. That's quickly becoming a myth here in 2015. According to ESPN Park Factors, PETCO ranks in the top 10 in home runs. They host the Texas Rangers this week, and the Padres have seen the total go over in seven of their last eight home games.
Colby Lewis will toe the rubber for the Rangers, and he's coming off a loss in his last start. Lewis (14-6, 4.38 ERA) allowed five runs on six hits over five innings in a 12-4 loss to Toronto his last time out. The Padres will hand he ball to Tyson Ross, who is 3-6 with a 4.13 ERA in 11 home starts.
The Padres have trended over at a rate of 22-7-1 in their last 30 overall.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-30-15 |
Houston Astros v. Minnesota Twins OVER 8.5 |
Top |
5-7 |
Win
|
102 |
11 h 41 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on HOU@MIN to go OVER the total.
The Astros and the Twins have split the first two games of this series in Minnesota, and runs have been hard to come by so far. I expect to see the bats come to life here in the series finale though, with a pair of struggling pitchers on the mound.
Lance McCullers will toe the slab for the Astros, and he's been getting crushed away from home. McCullers (5-4, 3.12 ERA) allowed six runs on seven hits, only recording one out before getting the hook in the first inning in his last start on the road. He's 1-4 with a 5.19 ERA in seven starts away from Minute Maid Park this season.
The Twins hand the ball to Johan Santana, who has been very disappointing in his return to the major leagues. Santana (2-4, 6.05 ERA) allowed five runs on eight hits over just 2 2/3 innings in a no decision versus Tampa Bay in his last start. He's still looking for his first win at Target Field, with a record of 0-1 with a 9.77 ERA in three home starts so far.
The Twins are 3rd in the major leagues in runs scored versus left-handed pitching.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-30-15 |
New York Yankees v. Atlanta Braves UNDER 7 |
Top |
20-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
10 h 15 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on NYY@ATL to go UNDER the total.
The Yankees defeated the Braves by a score of 3-1 in Atlanta yesterday, and we should see another pitcher's duel at Turner Field on Sunday.
Julio Teheran will toe the slab for the Braves, and he's been dominant at home in Atlanta. Teheran (9-6, 4.29 ERA) allowed three runs on four hits over 7 1/3 innings in a win over Colorado his last time out. He's now 7-1 with a 2.55 ERA in 13 home starts.
The Yankees will counter with Nathan Eovaldi, who has been brilliant this year for the Yankees. Eovaldi (13-2, 4.00 ERA) tossed eight scoreless innings, striking out seven in a 1-0 win over Houston. He's been very sharp in early games, going 6-0 with a 2.75 ERA in seven starts in the afternoon.
The Braves rank dead last in the major leagues in runs scored, and the Yankees are batting a major league worst .227 in day games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-30-15 |
Boston Red Sox v. New York Mets UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
4-5 |
Loss |
-111 |
6 h 58 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on BOS@NYM to go UNDER the total.
The Red Sox have silenced the red hot Mets bats here in New York so far, and after taking Game 2 by a score of 3-1, I think we'll see another pitcher's duel this afternoon.
Noah Syndergaard will toe the slab for the Metropolitans, and he's been dominant at Citi Field. Syndergaard (8-6, 3.19 ERA) allowed four runs on four hits over five innings in a win at Philly his last time out. He's 7-1 with a 1.82 ERA in nine home starts, and he's 3-0 with a 1.78 ERA in four starts in the afternoon.
The Red Sox hand the ball to Wade Miley, who has been solid in recent outings. Miley (10-10, 4.51 ERA) allowed five runs on 13 hits over 6 2/3 innings in a loss at Chicago his last time out. He had allowed three runs on 10 hits, striking out 14 in 14 1/3 innings in his previous two starts, winning both those games.
These teams have seen the total fall short of the number in seven of the last eight meetings in New York.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-29-15 |
Oakland A's v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 |
Top |
3-2 |
Loss |
-115 |
14 h 33 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on OAK@ARI to go OVER the total.
The D'Backs won Game 1 of this home series versus Oakland by a score of 6-4, and I think we'll see another slugfest in the desert tonight.
Aaron Brooks will toe the slab for the Athletics, and he's making just fourth start of the season. Brooks (1-1, 6.20 ERA) hasn't pitched since surrendering a game winning home run to the only hitter he faced (Manny Machado) in an 8-6 loss to the Orioles on August 14. The rookie was torched for eight runs on six hits over just 1 2/3 innings in a loss to Toronto prior to that.
The D'Backs will hand the ball to Jhoulys Chacin, who allowed three runs on six hits over 6 1/3 innings in a loss to St. Louis in his season debut on Monday.
The A's have seen the total go over in six straight when facing a right-handed starter.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-29-15 |
Miami Marlins v. Washington Nationals OVER 7.5 |
Top |
1-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
19 h 39 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MIA@WAS to go OVER the total.
The Washington Nationals have suffered a second half collapse of epic proportions, and they now trail the Mets by 6.5 games in the NL East. Not even Max Scherzer could stop the bleeding, as he took the loss in the series opener versus Miami on Friday. The Fish still have plenty of fight left in them, and I expect a high scoring competitive contest in Game 2 of this series.
Jordan Zimmerman will toe the slab for the Nats, and he's coming off back to back wins. Zimmerman (10-8, 3.54 ERA) didn't pitch particularly well in either of those games, allowing 10 runs on 17 hits over 11 2/3 innings. He's 2-3 with a 4.28 ERA since the All Star break, and he's 0-1 with a 2.84 ERA in three starts versus Miami this year.
The Marlins hand the ball to Tom Koehler, who has been getting crushed in recent outings. Koehler (8-12, 3.98 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on seven hits and four walks over six innings in a loss to Pittsburgh his last time out. He's 1-7 with a 5.21 ERA in his last eight starts, and he's 1-2 with a 4.66 ERA in three starts versus the Nats in 2015.
Bryce Harper remains a bright spot for the Nats, as the front-runner for the NL MVP. He's batting .333 with five home runs lifetime versus Koehler.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-28-15 |
Tennessee Titans v. Kansas City Chiefs OVER 43 |
Top |
10-34 |
Win
|
100 |
88 h 54 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TEN@KC to go OVER the total.
The Titans offense has looked pretty good so far in the pre-season, but I am not as optimistic about their defense. They are in Kansas City in Week 3, in a game that should see both teams starters play significant minutes.
Marcus Mariota had a terrible start, turning the ball over twice in a 31-24 loss to the Falcons in Week 1. He bounced back with a better performance last week, throwing for 59 yards on 5-of-8 passing, Zack Mettenberger has been solid in both games, throwing for over 200 yards with a pair of TDs and an INT.
The Chiefs made headlines last season as quarterback Alex Smith went the entire year without throwing a single TD pass to a wide receiver. The addition of Jeremy Maclin should change that, and the pair hooked up for a three yard strike in the first quarter of last week's win over the Seahawks. Smith and backup Chase Daniel should have little trouble moving the ball against a Titans defense than ranked 27th in the NFL last season.
Five of the last six meetings between these two teams have gone over the total.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-27-15 |
New York Mets v. Philadelphia Phillies OVER 8.5 |
|
9-5 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 46 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #MLB play on #NYM vs. #PHI to go OVER the total. The Mets bats are on fire, and New York has won six in a row. They wrap up this four game series in Philly tonight, and this one should be another slugfest. Aaron Harang will toe the slab for the Phillies, and he's coming off a win on the road at Miami. Harang (5-14, 4.67 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on two hits and four walks over seven innings in a 4-2 win over the Fish. He had lost three straight priorto that, surrendering 18 runs on 26 hits over 15 innings against Milwaukee, Arizona and the Dodgers. David Wright has owned Harang, going 13-for-30 with a home run and eight RBIs lifetime versus the veteran. The Mets will hand the ball to Jonathon Niese, who was hit hard in Colorado in his last start. Niese (8-9, 3.80 ERA) allowed seven runs on 11 hits over just 5 1/3 innings, but the Mets out-scored the Rockies 14-9. The over trends here are staggering, with Philly going over at a rate of 26-6-4 in their last 36 home games, and the Mets going over in nine of their last 10 overall. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
08-26-15 |
Houston Astros v. New York Yankees UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
6-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
10 h 52 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on HOU@NYY to go UNDER the total.
We saw the Yankees walkoff in a 1-0 pitcher's duel in Game 1 of this series in the Bronx, but Houston tied things up with a 15-1 thrashing last night. I think the Astros bats will struggle to repeat that performance here this afternoon, as Houston is batting just .227 in August. The Astros have also lost 10 of their last 13 on the road.
Michael Pineda will toe the slab for the Yankees, and he's been solid at home. Pineda (9-7, 3.97 ERA) has spent the last month on the disabled list, but he looked sharp in a rehab start on Friday, allowing one run on three hits, fanning three through 4 2/3 innings at Scranton. His numbers are better during the day than they are at night, and that trend holds true going back to last season as well.
The Astros hand the ball to Collin McCugh, who is 4-2 with a 2.60 ERA since the All Star break. He allowed one run on two hits, striking out eight in eight innings in a win over the Yankees earlier this year.
The Yankees have trended under at a rate of 15-7 in their last 22 at home, and 12-3 in their last 15 versus Houston.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-25-15 |
Oakland A's v. Seattle Mariners OVER 7.5 |
|
5-6 |
Win
|
105 |
16 h 25 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #MLB play on OAK@SEA to go OVER the total. We think of Safeco as one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the majors, but that hasn't been the case lately. The Mariners have seen the total go over at a rate of 20-5-3 in their last 28 home games. Their bullpen can take a lot of the blame, only two teams in the majors (Oakland and Colorado) rank worse than the Mariners who's relievers own a 4.45 ERA this season. Last night's slugfest saw both teams hit two home runs, and the A's won 11-5. The Marines will try to bounce back tonight against right-hander Jesse Chavez, who they have hit hard in the past. Chavez (7-12, 3.75 ERA) allowed just a pair of runs on two hits in a home win over the Dodgers his last time out. He's struggled on the road though, with a record of 2-7 and a 4.73 ERA in 11 starts away from Oakland. The Mariners lineup is batting a combined .303 over 119 at bats versus Chavez, and Nelson Cruz (the major league's home run leader) is 5-for-11 with a pair of homers. Mike Montgomery will go for the Mariners, and he's winless in his last eight starts. The southpaw is 0-3 with a 7.22 ERA in seven starts since the All Star break. He doesn't often go deep into ballgames (just four innings in his last start at Safeco), and that means the Mariners might have to count on their struggling bullpen to pick up the slack. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
08-24-15 |
St. Louis Cardinals v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 8 |
Top |
5-3 |
Push |
0 |
17 h 30 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on STL@ARI to go OVER the total.
The Cardinals bats went off for 10 runs in San Diego last night, and they are in Arizona for Game 1 of a new series tonight. The D'Backs are coming off four straight wins on the road in Cincinnati, and I think we could see a slugfest in the desert tonight.
Lance Lynn will toe the slab for the visitors, and he's been struggling with his command lately. Lynn (9-8, 2.94 ERA) allowed two runs on four hits and five walks over 6 2/3 innings in a home loss to the Giants his last time out. He's lost three of his last four starts, and he's issued a dozen walks in those games.
The D'Backs hand the ball to Robbie Ray, who has fallen apart in the second half. The southpaw is 0-5 with a 4.97 ERA in seven starts since the All Star break. He's still looking for his first win of the season at home, with a record of 0-4 with a 4.45 ERA in six starts at Chase Field.
Arizona has scored and average of 6.5 runs per game, batting .322 over the last 30 days.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-24-15 |
Colorado Rockies v. Atlanta Braves UNDER 7 |
Top |
3-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
14 h 28 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on COL@ATL to go UNDER the total.
The Rockies come into Atlanta off a dismal home stand that saw them drop seven of nine games at Coors Field. They are a pathetic 22-37 away from Colorado, and they rank dead last in the major leagues in runs scored on the road. The Braves aren't much better, they've scored the fewest runs in the majors overall this season. With both clubs sending their respective aces to the mound, runs should be hard to come by tonight at Turner Field.
Jorge De La Rosa will toe the rubber for the Rockies, and he's been very solid in recent outings. De La Rosa (7-5, 4.50 ERA) tossed six scoreless innings, striking out six in a no decision at home versus Washington his last time out. He faced Atlanta earlier this season, surrendering two runs on four hits over six innings in a no decision.
The Braves hand the ball to Julio Teheran, who has been lights out in Atlanta. Teheran (8-6, 4.32 ERA) allowed one run on four hits over six innings in a 4-1 loss at San Diego his last time out. He's 6-1 with a 2.44 ERA in a dozen starts at home this season, and he's 3-1 with a 3.33 ERA in his last four starts versus the Rockies.
The under is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings in this series.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-24-15 |
Cleveland Indians v. Chicago Cubs OVER 7.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 14 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CLE@CHI to go OVER the total.
The Cubs host the Indians in a matinee at Wrigley on Monday, and both teams will send their respective ace to the hill. With strong winds blowing out at Wrigley, it might be a tough day for the pitchers. The Cubs have won four straight, and they've seen the total go over 7.5 runs in six straight.
Corey Kluber will toe the slab for the visitors, and he's really struggled overall this season. Kluber (8-13, 3.52 ERA) was torched for six runs on six hits, including four home runs in a loss to Boston at Fenway his last time out. He's been better at home than he has been on the road, with a record of 3-7 with a 4.17 ERA in 14 starts away from Cleveland.
The Cubs hand the ball to Jon Lester, who was roughed up in a loss to the Tigers his last time out. Lester (8-9, 3.58 ERA) gave up seven runs on seven hits, including three home runs in just 2 2/3 innings in a loss to the Tigers. That was a clear example of what can happen when the wind blows out at Wrigley, and it could be another tough day for Lester here this afternoon.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-23-15 |
New York Mets v. Colorado Rockies OVER 11 |
Top |
5-1 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 8 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on NYM@COL to go OVER the total.
The Mets wrap things up in Colorado on Sunday, and they've won the first two games of this series by a combined score of 28-18. With a pair of struggling pitchers on the mound here this afternoon, another slugfest is likely.
David Hale will toe the rubber for the Rockies, and he's been hit hard all year long. Hale (3-4, 6.17 ERA) allowed six runs on eight hits over just five innings in a 15-6 home loss to Washington his last time out. He's really struggled in day games going 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA in the afternoon.
The Mets hand the ball to rookie right-hander Logan Verrett. The 25 year old is making his first career start in the majors, after posting a 2.82 ERA in 11 appearances out of the bullpen.
These teams have gone over the total in 12 of the last 14 head to head meetings. Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-23-15 |
Kansas City Royals v. Boston Red Sox OVER 8 |
|
8-6 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #MLB play on KC@BOS to go OVER the total. The Royals will try to salvage a split here on Sunday after dropping two of the first three games of this series at Fenway. I like their chances as Boston's rookie pitcher could be in for a rough ride.
Eduardo Rodriguez will toe the slab for the Sox, and he owns some pretty dramatic splits. The southpaw has been dominant at night (6-1, 1.67 ERA) but has been just brutal in the day (1-4, 10.67 ERA).
The Royals hand the ball to Edinson Volquez, who has been the epitome of consistency so far. Volquez (11-7, 3.20 ERA) allowed one run on four hits over six innings in a 3-1 win at Cincinnati his last time out. He's faced the Red Sox once this year, surrendering four runs on eight hits over 5 1/3 innings in the victory. The Red Sox are batting .283 in day games, second to only Detroit. These teams have played high scoring games, going over at a rate of 6-1-1 in the last eight head to head meetings. Boston has seen the total go over at a rate of 15-5-1 in it's last 21 home games.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-22-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays v. Los Angeles Angels UNDER 8 |
Top |
15-3 |
Loss |
-105 |
16 h 17 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TOR@LAA to go UNDER the total.
Tonight's game between the Jays and the Halos in Anaheim features three of the top five home run hitters in the American League, but with a pair of hot pitchers starting in this pitcher's park, I think we'll see a low scoring affair here in Game 2.
Marco Estrada will toe the slab for Toronto, and he's having a solid second half. Estrada (10-7, 3.20 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on three hits over six innings in a 4-1 home loss to New York his last time out. He's 4-2 with a 2.45 ERA in six starts since the All Star break.
The Angels hand the ball to rookie right-hander Andrew Heaney, who is undefeated at home this season. Heaney (5-1, 2.43 ERA) allowed one run on five hits over six innings in a 2-1 win over the White Sox his last time out. He's 3-0 with a 2.63 ERA in six starts at home so far.
The Under is 15-5-2 in Angels last 22 games as a home underdog.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-22-15 |
Tampa Bay Rays v. Oakland A's UNDER 7 |
Top |
5-4 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 9 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TB@OAK to go UNDER the total. The Rays won Game 1 of this series in Oakland by a score of 2-1, and we could see another pitcher's duel here in Game 2.
Sonny Gray will toe the slab for the A's, and he's coming off a tough loss at Baltimore his last time out. Gray (12-5, 2.04 ERA) allowed four runs (only one earned) on seven hits over 7 2/3 innings in a 4-2 loss at Camden Yards. He's won his last two home starts, allowing just two runs on nine hits over 16 innings. Gray is 2-2 with a 2.08 ERA in six starts since the All Star break.
The Rays hand the ball to Erasmo Ramirez, who has turned around his season after a tough start. Ramirez (10-4, 3.57 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on six hits over 5 2/3 innings in a win at Houston his last time out. He's gone 8-2 with a 2.37 ERA since May.
The Under is 20-9-3 in Oakland's last 32 home games.
Take Under.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-22-15 |
St. Louis Cardinals v. San Diego Padres OVER 6.5 |
Top |
0-8 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 12 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on STL@SD to go OVER the total.
Over the last few years, we've come to think of San Diego's PETCO Park as one of the most pitcher friendly in the majors. That's quickly becoming a myth here in 2015. . According to ESPN Park Factors, PETCO ranks 8th in total home runs right behind the legendary Coors Field. The Padres hit three home runs in a 9-3 win over the Cardinals last night.
Carlos Martinez will toe the slab for St. Louis, and he's coming off a poor performance. Martinez (12-5, 2.78 ERA) allowed five runs on seven hits over just five innings in a home loss to Miami his last time out. The Padres have really hammered him, batting a combined .432 over 37 at bats.
The Padres hand the ball to Ian Kennedy, who is coming off a loss at Colorado. Kennedy (7-11, 4.20 ERA) allowed four runs on four hits over 6 2/3 innings in a 5-0 loss to the Rockies at Coors Field. He's 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA against the Cardinals this season.
San Diego is trending over at a rate of 17-5 in their last 22 overall.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-22-15 |
Baltimore Ravens v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 44.5 |
Top |
17-40 |
Win
|
100 |
123 h 5 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on BAL@PHI to go OVER the total.
The Eagles scored 36 points in a blowout win over the Colts in Week 1. It wasn't much of a surprise when you consider the Eagles were just 2-2 in last year's pre-season, winning both of their home games. They scored more than their fair share of points, averaging just short of 33 points per game.
The Ravens also put up a big number in their pre-season opener, defeating the Saints by a score of 30-27. Joe Flacco completed five of six pass attempts for 33 yards with no TDs and no INTs. He should see a little more time here in the second week of pre-season play.
Sam Bradford did not play on Week 1, but we should see him here in tonight's game. The word out of training camp is that Bradford has been quite impressive, but Mark Sanchez has also been doing his best to create a quarterback controversy. Sanchez stole the show completing 132 of 184 pass attempts for 11 TDs and just one interception in practices prior to last week's game.
Kelly's coaching philosophy is that he does everything at "full speed", and it doesn't matter if it's practice, pre-season or regular season. We should expect another high scoring affair in Philly tonight.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-22-15 |
Cleveland Indians v. New York Yankees UNDER 8 |
Top |
2-6 |
Push |
0 |
8 h 37 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CLE@NYY to go UNDER the total.
The Yankees are coming off back to back home losses to Cleveland, and the series resumes Saturday with a matinee in the Bronx. This game appears to have the potential to be a pitcher's duel, and day games in Yankee Stadium do tend to favor the pitchers.
Luis Severino (0-2, 3.18 ERA) is still in search of his first win, despite the fact that the Yankees rookie right-hander has pitched quite well in his first three starts. He gave up three runs on five hits, but struck out nine over six innings in a 3-1 loss to Toronto his last time out. His next start comes on Saturday at home versus Cleveland, and he did look good striking out seven in five innings in a loss to the Red Sox in his only prior start in the Bronx.
The Indians will hand the ball to Danny Salazar, who comes off four consecutive dominant performances. Salazar (11-6, 3.16 ERA) allowed one run on four hits over seven innings in a win at Fenway his last time out. He's only surrendered three runs over his last four starts, and he's 3-2 with a 1.76 ERA in his last six starts.
The under is 13-5 in the Yankees last 18 home games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-21-15 |
Milwaukee Brewers v. Washington Nationals UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
10-3 |
Loss |
-118 |
17 h 3 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MIL@WAS to go UNDER the total.
The Washington Nationals return home to host the Brewers in a three game series starting Friday, coming off a brutal road trip losing six of nine. Despite the fact that they've lost 12 of 18 games in August, the Nats are still only 3.5 games back of the Mets for first place in the AL East. The Brewers have lost seven of their last eight on the road, and Game 1 appears to be a particularly tough spot for Milwaukee. Gio Gonzalez will go for the Nats, and he's won four straight versus the Brewers, and he's 5-1 with a 2.60 ERA at home in 2015. The Brewers hand the ball to right-hander Jimmy Nelson, who has been heating up in the second half. Nelson (9-9, 3.61 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on five hits over 6 2/3 innings in a 4-2 home win over Philly in his last start. He's 3-0 with a 1.99 ERA in six starts since the All Star break, but he was torched for seven runs on 10 hits over five innings, losing his only previous start versus Washington this season.
The Milwaukee Brewers are trending under on the road, only managing to go over the total once in their last nine away from Miller Park. They are in Washington this weekend, and the Nats have been really struggling to score runs. Washington is batting a major league worst .226 since the All Star break. We could see a low scoring series here in the nation's Capital.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-18-15 |
San Francisco Giants v. St. Louis Cardinals OVER 7 |
Top |
2-0 |
Loss |
-114 |
19 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on SF@STL to go OVER the total.
We saw the Cardinals prevail in a pitcher's duel in Game 1 of this home series versus the Giants, but I think we are more likely to see a slugfest here in Game 2 tonight.
Lance Lynn will toe the slab for St. Louis, and he's coming off the worst start of his career. Lynn (9-7, 2.95 ERA) failed to get out of the first inning, surrendering seven runs on six hits in a home loss to the Pirates his last time out. He was hit hard by the Rockies in his previous home start, surrendering four runs on seven hits in six innings in a 6-2 defeat. The Giants haven't had any trouble hitting him in the past either, as he's 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA in two starts versus San Francisco over the last three seasons.
The Giants hand the ball to Ryan Vogelsong, who will replace scheduled starter Mike Leake. Vogelsong (8-8, 4.15 ERA) allowed one run on three hits and four walks over five innings in a home win over Washington his last time out. He hasn't had much luck on the road, with a record of 5-6 and a 5.19 ERA in 15 appearances. The Cardinals lineup is hitting .311 over a combined 90 at bats against Vogelsong.
The Giants are batting a major league best .271 on the road this season, and they've seen the total go over at a rate of 34-15-5 in their last 54 road games.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-16-15 |
Arizona Diamondbacks v. Atlanta Braves UNDER 7 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
115 |
11 h 6 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on ARI@ATL to go UNDER the total.
Once again the Braves will be an underdog at home, despite their record of 31-24 at Turner Field. The D'Backs took Game 2 by a score of 8-4 last night, evening the series at 1-1. I think we're likely to see more of a pitcher's duel in the series finale here on Sunday.
Shelby Miller will toe the slab for the home team, and he's really been unlucky of late. Miller (5-9, 2.48 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on five hits over five innings in a 4-1 home loss to the Marlins his last time out. His ERA is among the best in the Majors, but the Braves haven't been able to provide him much in the way of run support. He might not need much today, as he's 2-0 with a 187 ERA in day games this year, and 9-3 with a 2.60 ERA in day games the last three years.
Arizona will hand the ball to Rubby De La Rosa, who has won four straight. De La Rosa (10-5, 4.55 ERA) allowed three runs on eight hits over six innings in a home win over Philly his last time out. He's 4-0 with a 2.81 ERA in five starts since the All Star break, but three of those four wins came at home.
The D'Backs are tied with Colorado for the most runs scored in the National League, but they rank 23 in the majors in runs scored during the day.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-14-15 |
Cleveland Indians v. Minnesota Twins OVER 7 |
Top |
6-1 |
Push |
0 |
16 h 27 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CLE@MIN to go OVER the total.
The Indians took two of three at home versus the Yankees, and they'll begin a new series in Minnesota tonight. Both these teams are swinging hot bats, and a total of 7 in this hitter's park stands out like a sore thumb. The bookmakers have adjusted with a low total because Corey Kluber will start for Cleveland, and he's still considered to be a great pitcher.
Kluber (7-12, 3.46 ERA) went the distance, allowing one run on three hits with 10 Ks in a home win over the Twins his last time out. When he's on top of his game, he's as good as any pitcher in baseball, the problem is that more often than not he has been below average this year. That's especially true on the road, where he is 2-6 with a 4.16 ERA in a dozen starts.
The Twins hand the ball to Trevor May, who has been working out of the bullpen in recent weeks. May (8-7, 4.09 ERA) hasn't started a game since July 1, and he will make his third start of the season against Cleveland. The Indians have tagged him for seven runs on 15 hits over just 12 innings this season. Only the Toronto Blue Jays have scored more runs at home than the Twins in the American League, and the Twins have gone over in seven of their last eight overall.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|