01-10-21 |
Ravens v. Titans +3.5 |
|
20-13 |
Loss |
-117 |
4 h 15 m |
Show
|
|
01-09-21 |
Bucs v. Washington Football Team +8 |
|
31-23 |
Push |
0 |
10 h 11 m |
Show
|
Washington Football Team +8 1%
|
01-09-21 |
Rams +3.5 v. Seahawks |
|
30-20 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 31 m |
Show
|
|
01-09-21 |
Colts +6.5 v. Bills |
Top |
24-27 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 58 m |
Show
|
COLTS +7 -120 BUY 1/2 5.5%
|
01-03-21 |
Washington Football Team v. Eagles +4 |
|
20-14 |
Loss |
-109 |
11 h 51 m |
Show
|
|
01-03-21 |
Jaguars +14.5 v. Colts |
|
14-28 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 57 m |
Show
|
|
01-03-21 |
Packers v. Bears +4.5 |
|
35-16 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 57 m |
Show
|
|
01-03-21 |
Saints v. Panthers +6 |
|
33-7 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
|
|
01-03-21 |
Steelers +10 v. Browns |
|
22-24 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 33 m |
Show
|
|
01-01-21 |
Ohio State +7.5 v. Clemson |
Top |
49-28 |
Win
|
100 |
34 h 35 m |
Show
|
|
01-01-21 |
Notre Dame +19.5 v. Alabama |
|
14-31 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 50 m |
Show
|
Alabama +19.5 3.3% play I think you are paying a big tax if you want to back Alabama today. We have a couple things working for us here as I think everyone remembers that 2012 Championship game, and Notre Dame getting their asses kicked. A lot has changed since then, but I think that is part of the tax you pay here. I also think that Nick Saban with less than 2 weeks to prepare + holiday vs. an entire month to prepare are two different things. I’ve been very impressed with the Notre Dame staff and even though I went against them vs. Clemson I think this team has improved despite the spread nearly doubling from 2012. Alabama’s defense will struggle at times here in my opinion. If you combine success rate offense, EPA run, and EPA pass, Notre Dame averages out #23 combined. Alabama has played 5 teams that averaged top 50, and in those games their defense gave up on average 32.2 points per game. We just saw the game against Florida where Kyle Trask torched them, and while Notre Dame doesn’t really have a Kyle Pitts or Toney at WR, they do have more of a balanced offense with a running game, and the feet of Ian Book, which is something Saban’s defenses have struggled with in the past. Alabama’s offense will have its day against Notre Dame, but it’s worth noting that Alabama has played just two defenses ranked on average top 50 in success rate defense, EPA run, and EPA defense, and that Notre Dame’s average of 14.33 comes in the best. Alabama scored 41 against Georgia, and 41 against Miss State. If Notre Dame forced 4 turnovers in the two games against Clemson, and I think they may be able to force one here. What scares me in this game as a Notre Dame backer is the fact that special teams is a huge edge for Alabama, but I think that gets offset here with Alabama being a 19.5 point favorite and looking to preserve the health of the team late in the game if they are up big leaving the back door wide open for a top 5 QB in the nation. It’s also worth noting that while Notre Dame has gotten their asses kicked in these BCS Bowl games/ Playoff games 0-6 SU & ATS their last 6 losing on average 24 ppg that this year is a bit different with the preparation time, and I believe Notre Dame’s offense is better. We also saw this program go toe to toe with Georgia last year losing 17-23 on the road, and in 2017 they lost 19-20 at home. That’s the same 2017 Georgia team that had Alabama down big at the half in the National Championship game. Georgia was up again this year on the road at Alabama 24-20, before the coaching advantage happened at the half, and Georgia’s passing game went in the shitter. I don’t see that happening here and I think Notre Dame can cover this spread worser teams have. Missouri lost by 19 to Alabama, Ole Miss by 15, Florida by 8, and Georgia by 17.
|
01-01-21 |
Auburn v. Northwestern -4 |
|
19-35 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 26 m |
Show
|
|
01-01-21 |
Cincinnati v. Georgia -6.5 |
Top |
21-24 |
Loss |
-114 |
48 h 18 m |
Show
|
Georgia -7 5.5% NCAAF POD
|
12-31-20 |
West Virginia v. Army +7 |
|
24-21 |
Win
|
100 |
48 h 39 m |
Show
|
|
12-29-20 |
Colorado +8.5 v. Texas |
|
23-55 |
Loss |
-114 |
24 h 45 m |
Show
|
|
12-29-20 |
Oklahoma State v. Miami-FL +1.5 |
|
37-34 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 5 m |
Show
|
|
12-27-20 |
Rams +1.5 v. Seahawks |
Top |
9-20 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 38 m |
Show
|
|
12-27-20 |
Bengals v. Texans -7.5 |
|
37-31 |
Loss |
-104 |
3 h 20 m |
Show
|
|
12-26-20 |
Dolphins v. Raiders +3 |
|
26-25 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 38 m |
Show
|
|
12-26-20 |
Bucs v. Lions +10.5 |
|
47-7 |
Loss |
-118 |
2 h 23 m |
Show
|
|
12-22-20 |
Central Florida +6.5 v. BYU |
|
23-49 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 42 m |
Show
|
BYU +7 -125 BUY HALF POINT 3%
|
12-22-20 |
Tulane -1 v. Nevada |
|
27-38 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
|
|
12-20-20 |
Chiefs v. Saints +3 |
|
32-29 |
Push |
0 |
6 h 21 m |
Show
|
|
12-20-20 |
Jets +17 v. Rams |
|
23-20 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 1 m |
Show
|
|
12-20-20 |
Eagles +7 v. Cardinals |
Top |
26-33 |
Push |
0 |
4 h 11 m |
Show
|
|
12-20-20 |
Texans +7.5 v. Colts |
|
20-27 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 57 m |
Show
|
|
12-20-20 |
Seahawks v. Washington Football Team +6.5 |
|
20-15 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
|
12-19-20 |
Alabama v. Florida +16.5 |
|
52-46 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 1 m |
Show
|
|
12-19-20 |
Boise State v. San Jose State +7 |
|
20-34 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 60 m |
Show
|
Florida +17.5 3.3% play I think Florida can stay within this number as we are getting a few extra points after Florida’s loss last week. Alabama’s uptick defense in my opinion is a bit overrated when you look at their schedule since the Georgia game, which was the last time this defense faced a top 60 unit. They gave up 24 points to Georgia in the first half who moved the ball extremely well on them. Since that game they have faced an average YPP offense ranking 92.75. The only time they faced an offense close to Florida’s capabilities in the passing game was Ole Miss who put 48 points on them. Florida gets their star TE back in Pitts here, which should be a huge deal to go along with Toney. I think the offense finds a way to stay within this number, and the back door if necessary, could be left wide open. The last 8 times Alabama has faced a top 35 yards per play offense they have given up 34.8ppg, and the last 5 times they have faced a Top 11 YPP offense they have given up 39.6 points per game, and have lost
|
12-19-20 |
Clemson -10 v. Notre Dame |
|
34-10 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 21 m |
Show
|
|
12-19-20 |
Northwestern +19 v. Ohio State |
|
10-22 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 28 m |
Show
|
|
12-19-20 |
Oklahoma v. Iowa State +6.5 |
|
27-21 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 13 m |
Show
|
|
12-18-20 |
Oregon +3.5 v. USC |
|
31-24 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 27 m |
Show
|
|
12-18-20 |
Ball State +13.5 v. Buffalo |
Top |
38-28 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 57 m |
Show
|
|
12-17-20 |
Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders |
|
30-27 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 15 m |
Show
|
|
12-14-20 |
Ravens v. Browns +3 |
|
47-42 |
Loss |
-100 |
5 h 18 m |
Show
|
|
12-13-20 |
Falcons v. Chargers |
|
17-20 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 15 m |
Show
|
|
12-13-20 |
Colts v. Raiders +3 |
|
44-27 |
Loss |
-108 |
7 h 55 m |
Show
|
|
12-13-20 |
Chiefs v. Dolphins +7 |
Top |
33-27 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 49 m |
Show
|
Dolphins +7.5 5.5% NFL POD
|
12-12-20 |
Virginia +3 v. Virginia Tech |
|
15-33 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 38 m |
Show
|
Virginia +3 3.3% play This is an interesting game as you have a rivalry game to wrap up each team’s final game as both teams and players have indicated they do not want to play in a bowl game due to COVID and being able to see their families. You have Virginia on a 4 game win streak vs. Virginia Tech on a 4 game losing streak, and they’re getting points, which is a natural spot for the public to take the dog. The numbers guys are going to take Virginia Tech, but I don’t agree with it being the right side. I think you have the better coaching staff on the side of Virginia with Bronco Mendanhall, and Justin Fuente could be on his way out. There are rumors that the players don’t really like Fuente, because he interviewed for the Baylor gig last year. The matchup has me liking Virginia along with the coaching and situation. Virginia finally got by Virginina Tech last year, and if they can do it again this year it would be a very big shift in the state for recruiting. Virginia Tech runs the ball over 60% of the time, but they’re facing a top run defense. Virginia ranks 34th in ypc allowed, and 42nd in EPA run defense. Virginia Tech has faced 4 top 50 rushing defenses and they have gone 1-3, with their only win coming all the way back in week 1 against NC State. Hendon Hooker is a threat running the ball at QB, but he hasn’t stayed healthy throughout games, and he had just 44 yards rushing on 21 carries in last years matchup. On the flip side Virginia when they plays a bad run defense they are 5-1, which Virginia Tech certainly is ranking 105th in ypc run defense, and 118th in epa run defense. Virginia just seems to know how to win games when they can run the ball. That one loss to Wake Forest came without Brennan Armstrong who is critical to their game plan and one of the best unknown players in the country that people will get to watch tonight. Virginia against a top 50 run defense are 0-3, but again Virginia Tech has not stopped anyone, and I don’t see it changing here tonight. Some other factors in this game you have to look at are the fact that Virginia Tech -4 TO margin over their last 3 games, while Virginia has forced 9 turnovers in their last 4 games. Virginia Tech 6 turnovers in their last 3 games as they faced 3 top 50 run defenses. Similarly, Virginia in their 4 losses were -9 TO margin, and one game was without Armstrong, and the other 3 against top 50 run defenses. The team that wins in the trenches wins this game, and I have to say it will be Virginia who has the better red zone defense holding opponents to 52% TD’s compared to Virginia Tech allowing 72%.
|
12-12-20 |
North Carolina v. Miami-FL -3 |
|
62-26 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 18 m |
Show
|
|
12-12-20 |
Navy +7 v. Army |
|
0-15 |
Loss |
-105 |
40 h 56 m |
Show
|
|
12-12-20 |
Utah +3 v. Colorado |
|
38-21 |
Win
|
100 |
37 h 51 m |
Show
|
|
12-12-20 |
Minnesota v. Nebraska -10 |
|
24-17 |
Loss |
-111 |
37 h 49 m |
Show
|
|
12-12-20 |
Alabama v. Arkansas +32.5 |
|
52-3 |
Loss |
-110 |
37 h 46 m |
Show
|
|
12-07-20 |
Washington Football Team +7 v. Steelers |
|
23-17 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 47 m |
Show
|
|
12-06-20 |
Colts -3 v. Texans |
|
26-20 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 49 m |
Show
|
|
12-06-20 |
Jaguars +10.5 v. Vikings |
|
24-27 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 48 m |
Show
|
|
12-06-20 |
Browns +5 v. Titans |
Top |
41-35 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 49 m |
Show
|
|
12-05-20 |
BYU v. Coastal Carolina +11 |
|
17-22 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 28 m |
Show
|
|
12-05-20 |
West Virginia +6.5 v. Iowa State |
|
6-42 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 27 m |
Show
|
|
12-05-20 |
Texas A&M v. Auburn +5.5 |
|
31-20 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 3 m |
Show
|
|
12-05-20 |
Ohio State -23.5 v. Michigan State |
|
52-12 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 57 m |
Show
|
|
12-05-20 |
Texas v. Kansas State +7.5 |
|
69-31 |
Loss |
-103 |
4 h 57 m |
Show
|
|
12-05-20 |
Oklahoma State v. TCU +2.5 |
|
22-29 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 56 m |
Show
|
|
12-04-20 |
UL-Lafayette +3 v. Appalachian State |
|
24-21 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 34 m |
Show
|
|
11-29-20 |
Chiefs v. Bucs +3.5 |
Top |
27-24 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 49 m |
Show
|
|
11-29-20 |
Raiders v. Falcons +3 |
|
6-43 |
Win
|
107 |
4 h 24 m |
Show
|
|
11-29-20 |
Giants v. Bengals +6 |
|
19-17 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 24 m |
Show
|
|
11-28-20 |
Nevada v. Hawaii +7.5 |
|
21-24 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 8 m |
Show
|
|
11-28-20 |
Kansas State +6.5 v. Baylor |
|
31-32 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 8 m |
Show
|
|
11-28-20 |
Auburn +24.5 v. Alabama |
|
13-42 |
Loss |
-109 |
7 h 49 m |
Show
|
|
11-28-20 |
Pittsburgh v. Clemson -22.5 |
|
17-52 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 44 m |
Show
|
|
11-28-20 |
Georgia Southern +2.5 v. Georgia State |
|
24-30 |
Loss |
-103 |
3 h 15 m |
Show
|
|
11-27-20 |
Notre Dame -4.5 v. North Carolina |
|
31-17 |
Win
|
100 |
40 h 38 m |
Show
|
|
11-27-20 |
Nebraska +14 v. Iowa |
|
20-26 |
Win
|
100 |
37 h 8 m |
Show
|
|
11-27-20 |
Iowa State v. Texas +1 |
|
23-20 |
Loss |
-110 |
36 h 9 m |
Show
|
|
11-26-20 |
Texans v. Lions +3 |
|
41-25 |
Loss |
-107 |
1 h 14 m |
Show
|
|
11-22-20 |
Chiefs v. Raiders +7.5 |
|
35-31 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 25 m |
Show
|
|
11-22-20 |
Titans +6.5 v. Ravens |
|
30-24 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 4 m |
Show
|
|
11-22-20 |
Steelers v. Jaguars +10.5 |
|
27-3 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 4 m |
Show
|
|
11-21-20 |
Oklahoma State v. Oklahoma -7 |
|
13-41 |
Win
|
100 |
45 h 44 m |
Show
|
|
11-21-20 |
Tennessee v. Auburn -10.5 |
|
17-30 |
Win
|
100 |
44 h 1 m |
Show
|
|
11-21-20 |
Wisconsin v. Northwestern +7.5 |
|
7-17 |
Win
|
100 |
41 h 35 m |
Show
|
|
11-21-20 |
Indiana v. Ohio State -20.5 |
|
35-42 |
Loss |
-110 |
37 h 6 m |
Show
|
OHio State -20.5 2.2% play
|
11-18-20 |
Toledo v. Eastern Michigan +7 |
|
45-28 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 40 m |
Show
|
|
11-16-20 |
Vikings v. Bears +3.5 |
|
19-13 |
Loss |
-109 |
4 h 4 m |
Show
|
|
11-15-20 |
Broncos +4.5 v. Raiders |
|
12-37 |
Loss |
-110 |
72 h 19 m |
Show
|
|
11-15-20 |
Washington Football Team v. Lions -3 |
|
27-30 |
Push |
0 |
4 h 29 m |
Show
|
|
11-15-20 |
Eagles -4 v. Giants |
|
17-27 |
Loss |
-108 |
4 h 29 m |
Show
|
|
11-15-20 |
California v. UCLA +4 |
|
10-34 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 12 m |
Show
|
|
11-14-20 |
Northwestern v. Purdue +3.5 |
|
27-20 |
Loss |
-126 |
25 h 12 m |
Show
|
|
11-14-20 |
Fresno State v. Utah State +10 |
|
35-16 |
Loss |
-101 |
23 h 42 m |
Show
|
|
11-14-20 |
TCU +3 v. West Virginia |
|
6-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 16 m |
Show
|
|
11-14-20 |
Penn State v. Nebraska +3.5 |
|
23-30 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 54 m |
Show
|
|
11-13-20 |
Iowa v. Minnesota +3.5 |
|
35-7 |
Loss |
-115 |
6 h 38 m |
Show
|
|
11-12-20 |
Colts v. Titans |
|
34-17 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 34 m |
Show
|
|
11-08-20 |
Steelers v. Cowboys +14.5 |
|
24-19 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 13 m |
Show
|
|
11-08-20 |
Dolphins +6 v. Cardinals |
|
34-31 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 27 m |
Show
|
|
11-08-20 |
Panthers +10.5 v. Chiefs |
|
31-33 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 48 m |
Show
|
|
11-08-20 |
Bears +6.5 v. Titans |
|
17-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 49 m |
Show
|
|
11-07-20 |
Clemson -5.5 v. Notre Dame |
|
40-47 |
Loss |
-109 |
29 h 30 m |
Show
|
|
11-07-20 |
Texas A&M v. South Carolina +10 |
|
48-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
28 h 60 m |
Show
|
|
11-07-20 |
Baylor v. Iowa State -13.5 |
|
31-38 |
Loss |
-115 |
28 h 60 m |
Show
|
|
11-07-20 |
Florida v. Georgia -3 |
Top |
44-28 |
Loss |
-109 |
25 h 39 m |
Show
|
|
11-07-20 |
Michigan State v. Iowa -6.5 |
|
7-49 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 59 m |
Show
|
|
11-07-20 |
Michigan -3.5 v. Indiana |
|
21-38 |
Loss |
-106 |
21 h 59 m |
Show
|
|
11-07-20 |
Nebraska +4 v. Northwestern |
|
13-21 |
Loss |
-115 |
20 h 17 m |
Show
|
|
11-06-20 |
San Jose State +10 v. San Diego State |
|
28-17 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 20 m |
Show
|
|
11-01-20 |
Chargers v. Broncos +3.5 |
|
30-31 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 26 m |
Show
|
|