Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-09-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. Houston Texans +3.5 | 33-28 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 12 m | Show | |
Houston +3.5 3.3* bonus The public and the home favorite has dominated Thursday night football and I stayed away last week, but the public is doubling down on the Colts after they have looked so great, but this is still more of a home team in my opinion. No lead however will be safe tonight with Andrew Luck and I wouldn't be surprised to see him pull another magical win off by 3, but I think this is a game the Texans will control. They have play-makers on their defense and know the Colts well. I also think it's time for the books to win one on Thursday. |
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10-05-14 | St Louis Rams +6 v. Philadelphia Eagles | 28-34 | Push | 0 | 1 h 46 m | Show | |
Rams +6 3.3* play |
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10-05-14 | Cleveland Browns v. Tennessee Titans -1 | Top | 29-28 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
Titans -1 5.5* NFL POD This won't be the most exciting game I give you that, but I like the Titans to get back on track and win at home. They get Jake Locker back who is still an upgrade over Charlie Whitehurst. The Titans have had a tough schedule to start facing 4 playoff teams in my opinion. They won at KC who looked great at home vs. the Patriots on Monday, they lost to Dallas who arguably has the best offensive line in the league, at Indy to a very good team, and at the Bengals to a team that has many picking them as the team that can beat Peyton Manning. Not a lot of cupcakes on the schedule there, but facing the Browns this week and Jaguars next week their is potential for the Titans to be sitting at 3-3. The Browns are ranked 27th vs. the pass and 29th vs. the run and 31st in yards allowed per play. Titans should be able to move the ball and even though the Browns are off a bye it won't matter. Titans are actually 1-3 because they have turned the ball over and can not convert on third downs. They have faced 3 of the top 10 3rd down defenses, but today they face the Browns defense allowing 38.5 yards per drive (ranked 28th in the league). Cleveland is also 18th in the league in forced turnovers. |
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10-04-14 | Utah +13.5 v. UCLA | Top | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 46 h 5 m | Show |
UTAH +13.5 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD + UTAH +405 1* ML UCLA got a huge win on national television to stay undefeated, but they actually looked like everyone thought they would all seasonw inning 62-27 and suddenly they are ranked #8 in the country. I'm still not buying this team at all. I was all over Arizona State last week because I thought they had more talent on defense and I was completely wrong this team is 113th in yards / play allowed and 70th in sack %. UCLA struggled in all 3 of their other games because Memphis, Virginia, and Texas are all in the top 25 in sack %. Well that plays right into Utah's hands as they are ranked 5th in sacks and 18th in sack %. Better yet they get to the QB with their front 4 and don't need to blitz as the defensive line has 15 of the 18 sacks. What I like about Utah is the fact that they lost at home as a double digit favorite while UCLA exploded on national TV so no doubt we have value on this line. Washington State went into Utah as 13 point favorite and won which I predicted and cashed on at +425. I'm predicting the same thing here. The match up against Wash State was just a bad bad match up for Utah whose defense is built to stop the run and get a pass rush, but Wash State relies on quick passes so a pass rush is almost nearly impossible. UCLA is ranked 109th in protecting the QB and it's been their kryptonite all year long. I don't expect that to change in one week after one game. UTah's Nate Orchad has proven he's a dominant pass rusher and should be giving Brent Hundley plenty of pressure. Utah gave UCLA all they could handle at home last year, but Tyler Wilson turned the ball over 6 times. It it wasn't for that this team would have beaten UCLA and Stanford at home. One year later this team is deeper and better and Tyler Wilson has yet to throw an interception and the team is +5 in turnover margin. Dres Anderson is a real threat at WR and Utah has balance with Devontae Booker carrying the ball. Special teams has also been great with Kaelin Clay the fastest player on the field already taking back 4 TD's in punt and kick off returns and should be a huge factor on Saturday night, but Utah's solid front 7 on defense against UCLA's struggling offensive line should be the story here and the reason why we cash our ticket. |
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10-04-14 | Pittsburgh +6 v. Virginia | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 43 h 17 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh +5 3.3* ACC GOW There has to be value in this line after Pitt lost as a -21 point favorite to Akron a week ago. This team was just beat up after the game against Iowa and I see them bouncing back this week. Virginia is 5-0 ATS on the year and that just can't hold up especially since Pitt is 0 for their last 3 ATS. If you just look at yards and yards allowed Pitt wins in all categories so I see a bit of value here although Pitt has their work cut out for them against Virginia's defense. VA has been dominant, but they haven't faced a running back like James Conner. Iowa was ranked 28th in run defense and Conner was able to exploit them and rush for over 150 yards. Despite what you may hear from the media Pittsburgh does have weapons to keep a defense honest with Tyler Boyd, who is arguably the best WR in the ACC. He had 7 rec for 111 yards in last year's meeting. Pittsburgh's defense is the main reason I think they cover this spread they have not allowed teams to move the ball and they don't spend a lot of time on the field which shoudln't change against a VA offense that's 80th in the nation in yards per play. Pitt is also 22-7 ATS in their last 29 following a SU loss and they'll want to redeem themselves early here. |
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10-04-14 | Texas A&M +2.5 v. Mississippi State | 31-48 | Loss | -100 | 36 h 9 m | Show | |
Texas A&M +3 -115 buy 1/2 4.5* SEC GOW The Aggies win last week was pretty impressive and they are #3 in our power rankings with the 10th toughest schedule to date. Miss State is ranked #9, but their power rank is #63 for strength of schedule. They won at LSU a team that's just not the same as previous years and then they played teams ranked 101st, 107th, and 123rd and all of a sudden this team is ranked #12 all because of a road win at LSU. They are off a bye, but everyone is telling them how great they are and crowning them as a top 5 team if they beat the Aggies as small favorites. I personally think this line is off despite taking Arkansas last week. Arkansas is drawing a lot of comparisons to MIss State because of their power run game, but Arkansas is a much different and a more challenging match up for the Aggies. MIss State does not dominate time of possession like Arkansas does - ranked 6th in the country. Miss State is just 62nd. The biggest difference is Arkansas pressure defense they play extremely aggressive and press the receivers. In the end A&M made adjustments and it hurt Arkansas, but Miss State likes to play off the receivers like South Carolina and I think Kenny Hill will have a field day. He's got some of the best receivers in the game who are elite in quick pass, yards after catch. Malcome Kennedy, Josh Reynolds and Edward Pope are all top 10 in receiving in the SEC. These are things LSU simply can't do on offense yet LSU still put up 341 yards passing. UAB put 435 yards passing up on Miss State which is nearly 200 more than their season average. I just think this is a terrible match up for Miss State and their head coach Dan Mullen has yet to prove he can come off a bye week and be better prepared. They lost at home to LSU 26-59 last year and 16-34 at South Carolina on extra rest. Miss St also was able to get to LSU who can't protect their QB ranked 107th in pass protection, but again A&M does not have that issue ranked 7th in pass protection. I think Dak Prescott is special and I think he'll move the ball quite a bit on the Aggies, but the red zone is where this game changes. A&M can score in the red zone and they can get stops in the red zone. On the year they are simply a bend but don't break defense allowing just 33% 3rd down conversions and 33.3% red zone TD percentage. This will be the reason they win the game because Miss State against for the most part awful competition are only converting 40% of their third downs and 60% red zone appearances into TD's. ***BONUS***Florida +8.5 /Ohio St -2 4.4* Teaser Of the Week Florida is off the bye week here and are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 trips to Tennessee. Tennessee is over valued here after going into Athens and nearly pulling off a huge upset as a 19 point dog losing 32-35. Florida looked like last year's Florida vs. Alabama, but they had a bye week to prepare and have several things going for them. For one they are still a team that relies on their defense that outside of Alabama has shown they can dominate and Tennessee's offense is ranked 101st in yards per play so I don't see them outscoring Florida by over a TD when Florida is off a bye especially when you take a look at where Tennessee's weakness is on defense. TN is 72nd run defense and they have to defend Florida's attack that has been pretty good with Jeff Driskel back in the mix. Driskel can actually pass and run and he's joined by Matt Jones who is averaging over 5 yards per carry. Ohio State on the other hand gets to face a Maryland team getting all kinds of credit after their big win on the road against Indiana as an under dog. They are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after an ATS win and I think Ohio State is out to prove they don't belong in this conference. Ohio State offense is balanced and getting better by the week. JT Barrett is a better passer than Braxton Miller and has converted 72% of his passes or more in 3 of his 4 games and has gone back to back with 300+ yards. They are 5th in QB rating and 38th in yards per carry. Maryland at times has shown they can be good on defense, but they have also shown they can be beat by teams who are very good at doing one thing. Syracuse ran for over 350 yards and 7.3 ypc, and West Virginia threw for over 500 yards. Ohio State's 710 yard performance on Cinci last week was impressive and they have a good coaching staff. I think RB Ezekiel Elliot is in for a big game while Ohio State's defense has been more dominant than what the public perception is. Maryland also could be without their QB CJ Brown who handles the majority of the offense leading the team in rushing attempts. Even if he plays he shouldn't be 100% which could be a major issue against this defense. |
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10-03-14 | San Diego State v. Fresno State -3 | 13-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Fresno State -3 3.3* bonus Fresno State has not looked good, but they faced USC, Nebraska and Utah to start the season. Now they get their second game in the Mountain West and it's against San Diego State who realistically has not faced anyone when you consider how poorly Oregon State and UNC have looked. Fresno State's pass defense has been the main issue allowing 17 TD's to just 1 INT, but when you face the teams of that quality you are going to have issues. They have also faced two top 10 rushing attacks along the way so this defense can only trend upwards. On Friday night they get a one dimensional team in San Diego State. San Diego State has just 2 TD passes and 6 interceptions and now they'll start a true freshmen on the road in Nick Bawden on a short week. Fresno has an extra day to prepare because they played last Friday. Fresno is stronger in the front 7 than they have shown and San Diego State is facing a 3-4 defense for the first time all year. Fresno has 4 returning LB's and an NFL caliber NT in Tyeler Davison. Fresno's offense will give San Diego State's defense some issue with their tempo. San Diego State was holding up against UNC and then UNC picked up the tempo and created havoc. Fresno will do it all game and it's going to be something San Diego State can't prepare for on the short week with a young defense. San Diego State's strengths are stopping the run and running the ball which transition well on the road, but the offenses they have faced are NAU, 90th ranked rushing offense followed by 96, and 93. The defenses they have faced are NAU, 122nd, 57th, and 86th. The value resides with Fresno in this game and I"ll take the FG. |
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10-03-14 | Louisville v. Syracuse +3 | Top | 28-6 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
Syracuse +3 4.4* NCAAF POD This is a dangerous game for Louisville and I'm not so sure they can win or even should be favored so I'll take the FG with the home dog in the Carrier Dome where they are extremely dangerous. This year has been odd for Louisville in a bad way as their defense was supposed to struggle while the offense was great under Bobby Petrino, but it's been opposite and a lot has to do with the offenses they have faced in my opinion. Louisville is in fact ranked #2 in run defense, but they have not faced a top 60 unit and have faced an FCS school + 128th ranked run offense and 112th. No doubt those numbers are a bit skewed. Here comes Syracuse ranked #10 with multiple options in their running game including an elite running QB in Terrel Hunt. Hunt has struggled to pass, but back at home against an over rated Louisville defense should change. Syracuses losses have been against some very good teams in Notre Dame and Maryland, who is shocking many people already. Syracuse defense also has the edge here in my opinion. Louisville is very uncertain at QB and they face Syracuse's 17th ranked run defense, but that's not what will get them the win. Their front 7 is aggressive as any and they'll get to the QB particularly at home. They forced Notre Dame into 5 turnovers last week on a neutral field and this week their 22nd ranked sack % team gets to face Louisville who is having all sorts of issues in the pocket ranking 118th in pass protection. To make matters worse for Louisvlle Syracuse has bene dominant in the red zone allowing just 38% TD's. While Lousivlle has also gotten to the QB it's been against some poor protection units and Syracuse is ranked 3rd in sacks allowed which is extremely impressive when you figure they have a mobile QB. |
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10-02-14 | Central Florida +3 v. Houston | Top | 17-12 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
UCF +3.5 4.4* NCAAF POD I don't know who drove this line up to 3.5 points, but I'm thanking them for it. Essentially both teams come off a bye week here and should be fresh for their conference game. Although UCF may have a bit more time to prepare here considering they had Bethune Cookman on 9/20. Either way I expect a competitive game between two teams who are solid on defense and struggling to find an identity on offense, but I think UCF is still the better team with the better coach. UCF is ranked higher in our power rankings 77th to 84th, and strength of schedule 32nd vs. 71st. Houston's wins have come when they can run the ball and despite only doing that roughly 38% of the time. However, they ran the ball against two poor teams in Grambling and UNLV. Against BYU and UTSA they ran for a combined -17 yards. UCF is giving up 2.9 ypc and they have played big opponents like Missouri and Penn State. They have an excellent group of linebackers led by Terrance Plummer who has been in the media this week responding to Houston's WR's comments. Plummer is a great leader who plays with emotion and passion and that's the type of team I like to back as an under dog. Houston's WR Deontay Greenberry is a good player, but he made a dumb comment stating "they weren't that good last year....don't expect a close game this year." I have no idea why he feels that way when you consider how Houston has played this year against competitive opponents, but UCF HC George O'Leary state "one of my players said that he'd be watching the game on TV." It just goes to show you where both teams are. UCF is clearly more mature and has a better coach and the stats back it up. Houston passes 61.5% of hte time and they are not very good at ranked 114th in pass efficiency. We broke down the struggles with the running game so for me the game for Houston relies on O'Korn. He was supposed to make a big step forward in his second year and he hasn't completing just 52% of his passes while throwing 6 interceptions and 6 TD's. I don't see that changing here against UCF which has a seasoned secondary. Missouri's Matty Mauk only had 144 yards passing on them on 14/24 and he had the running game working to create balance. Don't expect O'Korn to have the same advantages here tonight. Central Florida's defense will keep them in the game while the offense I think will gain it's confidence for the first time this season against a decent opponent. UCF is ranked nearly dead last in ypc but they have faced some very good defenses including Penn State ranked 3rd v.s the run. Houston's defense just gave up 5 rushing TD's and 500 yards in their last 2 games combined against BYU and UNLV. I can see BYU rushing well, but UNLV is ranked 90th in yards per rush and they put up 4.36 average and 170 yards. UCF has the threat of their QB taking off and I think he will take a few plays out of BYU's play book for some key first downs. I would feel comfortable taking UCF on the money line if you have to.. This team could easily be 2-1, but their defense has struggled on third down defense, but playing Houston should help as they have only been able to convert 33% of their third downs and we mentioned all the struggles they have had running and throwing the ball. |
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09-29-14 | New England Patriots -3 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 14-41 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 43 m | Show |
Patriots -3 +115 4* NFL POD There is tremendous value right now on the Patriots. They have not looked good on offense and the defense has carried them through their two wins on the season. Their defense is definitely improved and go up against a Chiefs team that is particularly weak. The start of the season has definitely changed a lot of the public's perception on the Patriots, but this team will be just fine and in the mix to go to the Super Bowl again by the end of the season. The offensive line is having growing pains, but I think we see an improvement this week and the offense will surely benefit. Most of the public is thinking about the fact that the Chiefs went to Miami and dominated 34-15 while the Patriots lost 20-33. I'm not.. This team always gets up for Monday night covering 9 of their last 13. I also like the Patriots for the unfortunate fact that the Chiefs are down a lot of starters already early in the season. They are without 2 opening day starters on offense and have replaced those guys with two rookies and on defense they are without 4 starters from their opening day roster as well. Bottom line this Patriots offense has nowhere to go but up and with Brady in the mix that's going to happen sooner rather than later. What better time than on Monday night with many doubting the 2014 Patriots. Their defense has been elite allowing 272 yards per game which is good for 2nd in the league. KC's defensive unit is ranked 16th. New England is #1 from a yards/play perspective while KC is 19th. On offense KC is ranked 29th in yards per play while the Patriots are ranked 32nd.. Again not going to last with Brady. I expect the offensive line issues to be a thing of the past and we will see a different game plan here tonight. |
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09-28-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. San Francisco 49ers -4 | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
49ers -3.5 3.3* play |
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09-28-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 38 h 35 m | Show |
TB Bucs +9 5.5* MAX NFL POD |
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09-28-14 | Green Bay Packers -2 v. Chicago Bears | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 37 h 26 m | Show | |
[b]Packers -1 4.4* NFL Early Bird Special[/b] The Packers can not afford to go 1-3 and they know it while the Bears are pretty content following two road wins. Remember the Bears lost to the Bills at home and are nothing special. Packers are over rated in my opinion too but this is just a must win game for them otherwise the season could be over. |
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09-27-14 | Washington State +14 v. Utah | 28-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Wash St +14 3.3* PAC12 GOW / Wash St +425 0.5* bonus I have backed Utah many times and have won. I like defensive teams, but this defense is built on stopping the run and that's not at all what Washington State does. Last year they put up 578 yards on Utah and this QB they have Halliday is pretty good as he already has 16 TD's. I also like Utah's QB Wilson, but far too often does he make the big mistake. Either way this game should go back and forth and I wouldn't be surprised to see Washington State have a chance to win it on their last drive which is why I'm going to sprinkle a little on the money line. |
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09-27-14 | Notre Dame v. Syracuse +10 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -115 | 43 h 6 m | Show |
SYRACUSE +10 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD Notre Dame is once again getting media attention which is nothing new for this program but ranked number eight in the country is a bit overboard. Nearly 65% of the public is backing Notre Dame here will play on a neutral field at Yankee Stadium. Both teams have experience playing in this stadium in the pinstripe bowl. I like Syracuse a lot here as they just come off a loss against Maryland which gives us a little bit of value in the line. The loss against Maryland was also misleading and lost by 14 but pay average 7.3 yards per carry and outgained Maryland by 220 yards. This offense is very good and can expose Notre Dame as the Irish have yet to face a truly mobile quarterback. Terrel Hunt fits the part for Syracuse and he has a running back and Gulley who is averaging 7.84 yards per carry. They are both playing behind in offense of wine that is extremely experienced with five seniors. Notre Dame has looked great but against who? We all saw how Michigan looked at home against Utah as favorites. That makes Notre Dame's victory against them a little less impressive. This is also Notre Dame's first game away from home and while their run defense has allowed less than 3 yards per carry to have not faced a running game like this. Notre Dame's offense is also misleading in my opinion because they lack multiple go to guys can easily put together a game plan to keep this offense in check. It's also a bad sign when your head coach is looking to shake up the offense of line during your bye week. Which is exactly what Brian Kelly has been doing and that offense of line will be in for a tough test against Syracuse which is very good at stopping the run. |
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09-27-14 | Duke +7 v. Miami (Fla) | 10-22 | Loss | -115 | 43 h 43 m | Show | |
DUKE +7 3.3* PLAY[/B] Miami struggled big-time with Nebraska's read option we could go and Duke's offense will run something very similar. Dick's offense I believe is a bit more experienced and even a little bit better than Nebraska especially at quarterback with Anthony Boone a senior returning as he faces off against Miami's freshman QB. Dick's offense has a ton of talent from running back to wide receiver to the offense of line and they are well coached. On paper Miami should dominate running the ball against this Duke team but they've had all sorts of issues without the balance of a passing game. Duke Johnson has great numbers is far as yards per carry go but he has not topped 100 yards yet on the season and Miami ranks 92nd in the country in yards per carry on offense. Theeir new quarterback Brad Kaaya has already thrown seven interceptions. Miami's only converting 26% of their third-downs in those struggles have also carried over into their red zone offense. Duke has three senior linebackers returning and they've been solid in these areas which give them a major advantage in this matchup. The biggest reason why I'm backing tubes here is the fact that we are getting them at a key number of +7. But they have played a cleaner season with +5 in the turnover margin while Miami has struggled big-time. Duke also features a top 25 special teams unit while Miami has already allowed a kickoff return for a touchdown take Duke and the points. |
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09-27-14 | Missouri +6 v. South Carolina | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 42 h 18 m | Show | |
MISSOURI +5 3.3* PLAY Missouri just lost two in Indiana's user's team out of the Big Ten last week as a double-digit favorite. I think that gives us plenty of value this week as Missouri now goes on the road to face a very good South Carolina teen that is well coached. However all back the underdog coming off a big loss to rebound here as I think they match up extremely well with South Carolina. South Carolina has really struggled they can't get a pass rush as they are ranked 110 in the country in sac percentage. They are also rank 110th in opposing QB rating on the season as well. Now they are facing very good quarterbacks this early in the season but Maddie Mauk is no slouch that's for sure. South Carolina also played poorly on defense when facing a terrible offense. Vanderbilt is ranked 100 in yards per play this year yet South Carolina allowed them to have nearly 7 yards per play in their last game which is almost 3 yards more than they've been averaging on the season. South Carolina is also allowing 52% conversions on third down and they are allowing 5.27 yards per carry in run defense. Missouri is a balanced attack nearly 50% rushes 50% passes. They also have a lot on the line in this game and it's certainly a revenge came after they lost to South Carolina last year in dramatic fashion at home. Missouri is a well coached team that is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 following in ATS loss. I don't think South Carolina's offense is good enough to score and cover the spread even though Dylan Thompson has looked very good this far in the season. |
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09-27-14 | Florida State v. NC State +18.5 | 56-41 | Win | 101 | 39 h 57 m | Show | |
[b]NC ST +18.5 3.3* PLAY[/b] Florida State was overrated to start the year they were overrated after their first game second gain and 13. Part of it is the sophomore slump after dominating 2013 in winning the national championship. This is another dangerous game Florida State and they have struggled playing here losing five of their last seven. Winston will return after last week's suspension and Florida State should cruise to victory right? NC State had basically up by last week and will be well prepared for what is their game of the year arguably the biggest game at home in their history. That only are they getting the number one ranked team in their own building for the first time ever they also get to face the Heisman Trophy winner for the first time ever at home and as we all know Florida State are the reigning national champions. NC State's defense definitely has a chip on his shoulder in this game after allowing 35 points in 11 minutes in Florida State's Stadium last year. The key to this game is to get pressure on Winston and Florida State's offense of lines having a hard time blocking for him ranked 100 in pass protection. Florida State's offense has definitely not been the same in 2014 and I do expect them to win this game but I think they come into this game often emotional win in overtime last week without Winston and they will be a little slow in the beginning. That should leave plenty opportunity for NC state to cover this widespread at home. |
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09-25-14 | UCLA v. Arizona State +4 | Top | 62-27 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
Arizona State +4.5 4.4* NCAAF POD This line is about right with Arizona State's QB Taylor Kelly missing the game and a lot of unknowns. However, I feel confident in Arizona State at home despite their defense not being a top tier unit. They lost 8 starters from a year ago, but these guys playing at home with a chip on their shoulder knowing they are the supposed weakest unit will be interesting to see. They actually get a good match up here in my opinion going against UCLA. UCLA has not been good on offense despite having an NFL QB in Brett Hundley who is not 100% healthy thanks to the atrocious play of his offensive line and no real game changers on offense. UCLA is 72nd in yards per play and 115th in sack % allowed. Arizona State always has an aggressive front with athletes and they may be inexperienced, but I'm betting on them coming up big tonight in this marquee match up. They will see a balanced offense, but neither the passing or the running game of UCLA scares me right now. Arizona State offense has been superb ranking 3rd in yards per play, but they have not played anyone. They have had 12 days to prepare and with a new QB in Mike Bercovici and I think they will be able to move the ball. UCLA has big names that are over hyped this unit is 111th in sack % and they can't pin their ears back against Arizona State's big OL because the running game is a real threat with DJ Foster who is averaging 9.44 yards per carry. I don't see how UCLA will keep Arizona State from moving the ball and their play up front is simply not good enough to be a road favorite. They can't get to the QB and they can't protect their QB and they're a road favorite? I'll take the points enjoy! |
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09-25-14 | NY Giants v. Washington Redskins -3 | Top | 45-14 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
Redskins -3 5.5* MAX NFL POD First of all the Giants have played sloppy all year long and if they can't run the ball there does not come to be successful. Ironically the Washington Redskins have been excellent against the run andto excellent rankings in Houston Texans and the Philadelphia Eagles yet their rank number one in run defense as far as ypc is considered. After the Redskins are top 10 team for yards per play on offense and yards per play allowed on defense and their basically a pk vs. the New York Giants. I don't think so I think this line is way off and I think the oddsmakers are setting it because the Giants didn't just beat the Houston Texans at home while the Washington Redskins lost the Houston Texans on the road. However now that RG three is gone Kirk cousins is taken over this offense and he fits into the system much better. Cousins in the Redskins have averaged 38 points per game since he's taken over and the offense is really clicking. For the Giants have played sloppy all year long I don't really see that changing. Even in their win last week Eli Manning had turned the ball over and it wasn't a smooth gain. I don't see how the Giants will be able to move the ball consistently in this scheme which is what there and I have to do because the Redskins can score and move the ball. The Redskins not only are number one in the league against the run but they are number one in sack percentage and it's a major weakness of the Giants. Protecting the quarterback is crucial when Eli Manning is taking snaps and if they can't do that this scheme should be a blowout. |
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09-21-14 | Denver Broncos v. Seattle Seahawks -4 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 2 h 48 m | Show | |
3.3** play |
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09-21-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Buffalo Bills -1 | 22-10 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
Bills -2 3.3* play[/b] The San Diego Chargers are often absolutely amazing win against the Seattle Seahawks. I actually picked the Chargers to cover that spread last weekend and I was not shocked when they won the game. However now they have to go all the way across the country to play on the East Coast in an early game after defeating the Super Bowl champions. Teams to upset Super Bowl champions are six – 29 straight up on the road facing a team that's off a win in their next game.The Chargers themselves are one – eight against the spread on the road against AFC East opponents in their last nine trips. This is clearly a hangover gamblers and underrated bills team who has talent on offense and defense especially that defensive line.I also feel very confident knowing the Chargers are dead last in yards per play differential on the season at -1.6 yards per play |
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09-21-14 | Tennessee Titans +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals | 7-33 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
Titans +7 3.3* play[/b] 57% of the public and probably more by the start of this game are backing the Cincinnati Bengals. They are 10 – zero ATS in their last 10 games. However right now their stock is just too high and that exactly when I like to bet against the team. For instance they just got done dominating the Atlanta Falcons which in recent memory on Thursday night put on an absolute show on Thursday night football. Marvin Lewis is just not that good of a coach in my opinion especially when you compare him to Ken Wisenhunt of the Tennessee Titans. The Titans won on the road in week one against Kansas City 26 to 10 and then they lost at home into the Dallas Cowboys. So the public perception on this team is just not very good right now again the stock is well in the Titans in very high and the bangles and naturally were going to get a spread by the oddsmakers that is just not right. If you're still not feeling good about this game realized that the Bengals offense is really banged up AJ Green is good to play tomorrow however they are without their number to wide receiver in Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert is also out. The Titans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven in Cincinnati. |
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09-20-14 | Oklahoma v. West Virginia +8.5 | 45-33 | Loss | -120 | 43 h 17 m | Show | |
West Virginia +8 3.3* play |
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09-20-14 | Florida Atlantic +4 v. Wyoming | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 40 h 50 m | Show | |
Florida Atlantic +4 4.4* play |
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09-20-14 | Utah +3.5 v. Michigan | 26-10 | Win | 100 | 39 h 29 m | Show | |
Utah +4 3.3* play |
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09-20-14 | Iowa +7 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 36 h 10 m | Show |
Iowa +7 5.5* NCAAF POD; Iowa +230 1* bonus |
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09-19-14 | Connecticut +3 v. South Florida | Top | 14-17 | Push | 0 | 3 h 48 m | Show |
Connecticut +3 -115 4.5* NCAAF POD |
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09-18-14 | Auburn v. Kansas State +9.5 | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
Kansas State +9.5 -105 4.5* NCAAF POD 13 straight covers for Auburn and now they go on the road on a Thursday night early in the season for a very tough challenge. I can't help but think this line is high from 13 straight covers and the media hype that Auburn gets which is clearly earned. However, I'm still a bit skeptical about this year's Auburn Tigers and we have not learned anything after their first two games other than we know this team can run the ball. However, they just ran the ball at home against two below average defenses in Arkansas and San Jose State. The challenge on Thursday night is going on the road to face Bill Snyder's under rated defense. Snyder has had success in these type of games especially with his defensive scheme. Snyder will have his defense playing man on the outside and blitzing forcing everything to funnel through the middle of the field. I'm not saying Auburn won't be effective, because I think they will move the ball fine, but I think Kansas State will get some red zone stops for sure. Auburn will be tested here a bit and we may finally see the growing pains of losing their stud LT Greg Robinson in the off season and now LG Alex Kozan which are both huge loses. It also helps Snyder and the Wildcats that Auburn's QB Nick Marshall has yet to show he's improved from last year in the passing game. This Auburn team is still one dimensional against a sound defense until further notice in my opinion. Marshall may prove me wrong, but he's also going to prove Bill Snyder wrong if he takes over this game with his arm for all 4 quarters. I just don't see that happening here. The Wildcats are also more prepared for this type of offense than most defenses especially compared against Auburn's first two opponents. For one they face a similar option offense in practice that's geared towards the run and have done so for years. Secondly, tempo is something Auburn believes in and uses, but in the Big 12 every team seems to run that tempo offense and Kansas State has had plenty of success against it over the years with Snyder at the helm. One of the biggest reasons I like Kansas State here as a top play is their offense and the Auburn defense. Auburn has the skill on the front 4 to get after a QB, but the way Kansas State's offense is run I think they are going to have issues containing Jake Waters. This is a unique offense that will use just about every formation. Kansas State may run the ball the majority of the time, but they can also pass and they feature a WR that Auburn won't be able to cover in Tyler Locket. Kansas State is a better team than Arkansas who gave Auburn more than they could handle on offense averaging over 5 yards per carry in Auburn's home building. Expect nearly 5 ypc tonight from Kansas State with 3rd down conversions, unlike Arkansas who only converted 2-11 on third down. |
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09-15-14 | Philadelphia Eagles +3 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 4 h 47 m | Show |
Eagles +3 4.4* NFL POD |
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09-14-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. San Diego Chargers +6 | 21-30 | Win | 100 | 3 h 16 m | Show | |
4.4** play |
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09-14-14 | Dallas Cowboys +3.5 v. Tennessee Titans | Top | 26-10 | Win | 100 | 29 h 38 m | Show |
Cowboys +3.5 5.5* NFL POD |
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09-13-14 | UCLA v. Texas +7.5 | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 43 h 18 m | Show | |
Texas +8 4.4* play[/b] |
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09-13-14 | Wake Forest +15 v. Utah State | 24-36 | Win | 100 | 42 h 19 m | Show | |
Wake Forest +15 2.2* play |
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09-13-14 | Arkansas +1.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 49-28 | Win | 100 | 39 h 56 m | Show |
Arkansas +1.5 5.5* NCAAF POD |
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09-13-14 | East Carolina +10 v. Virginia Tech | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 35 h 13 m | Show | |
East CArolina +10 3.3* Early Bird Special Here comes Virginia Tech at home after they pulled off the amazing road victory over a top 10 team in Ohio state which pretty much nobody saw coming. But Forster's defense was suffocating and really dominated that game and it will to probably dominate on Saturday. However I'm still taking the generous points given to me by the oddsmakers and I will back east Carolina in this game. East Carolina also has a defense that's pretty darn good this game is 15 to 10 last year. East Carolina also just came within 10 points on the road of the few South Carolina which is a better team in Virginia Tech in my opinion. I really like is Carolinas ability to put up some points here enough to at least stay within this number. Shane Carden had 33 touchdowns 10 interceptions last year with a 70% completion rate he's a senior he also wants to seek revenge on Virginia Tech we threw three interceptions against last year. Carden does not have to do it all on his own he's got wide receiver Justin Hartley who is getting tatted as a first round pick in next years NFL draft. No doubt Virginia Tech to defense offers the biggest challenge of 2014 however East Carolina is very familiar with this defense the face them two times in the last year and I think again these teams know each other very well why do respect for each other and I really think it's gonna be a close game throughout. At the end of the day as good as Virginia text defenses their offense is not good enough to cover double digits friend. East Carolina will stack a box in and out on the outside and I just don't see quarterback Michael Brewer being able to win those one-on-one match ups his accuracy is there but I just don't see him being able to avoid the big mistake against this aggressive defense. Virginia Tech is eat in 19 against the spread in the last 27 following a straight up when 310 in the last 13 following and against the spread one and four and 11 and two against the spread in the last 17 nonconference games. |
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09-12-14 | Toledo +10.5 v. Cincinnati | 34-58 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 36 m | Show | |
[b]Toledo +10 2.2* play[/b] |
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09-11-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Baltimore Ravens -2.5 | Top | 6-26 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
Ravens -2.5 4.4* NFL POD |
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09-11-14 | Louisiana Tech +4 v. North Texas | Top | 42-21 | Win | 100 | 2 h 56 m | Show |
LA Tech +4 4.4* NCAAF POD |
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09-08-14 | NY Giants +6 v. Detroit Lions | Top | 14-35 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 29 m | Show |
Giants +4.5 4.4* NFL POD |
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09-07-14 | Carolina Panthers v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 | 20-14 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 44 m | Show | |
[b]Tama Bucs -2.5 3.3* play[/b] |
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09-07-14 | Buffalo Bills +7 v. Chicago Bears | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
Bills +7 3.3* bonus play Got to go with the Bills here as the Bears come into the season with a ton of hype and rightfully so they get Jay Cutler healthy and a monster duo at WR along with Matt Forte, but that defense was not exactly impressive last year and the Bills have a very good front line on both sides of the ball with a good running game and I expect them to stay in this game at least to a TD or less. |
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09-07-14 | New Orleans Saints v. Atlanta Falcons +3 | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
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09-06-14 | Air Force -2 v. Wyoming | 13-17 | Loss | -106 | 28 h 45 m | Show | |
Air Force -2 3.3* Late night fix |
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09-06-14 | Michigan +4 v. Notre Dame | 0-31 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 4 m | Show | |
[b]Michigan +3.5 3.3* college assurance[/b] |
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09-06-14 | Ole Miss v. Vanderbilt +20 | Top | 41-3 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 11 m | Show |
Vanderbilt +20 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD |
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09-06-14 | USC v. Stanford -3 | 13-10 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
Stanford -2.5 2.2* winner |
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09-06-14 | Navy -3 v. Temple | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 36 m | Show | |
NAVY -3 3.3* EARLY BIRD PLAY |
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09-04-14 | Green Bay Packers +6 v. Seattle Seahawks | 16-36 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 57 m | Show | |
Packers +6 2.2* NFL play |
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09-04-14 | Arizona -7 v. Texas-San Antonio | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
Arizona -7 -104 4.5* POD |
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08-31-14 | Utah State +5 v. Tennessee | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
Utah State +5 4.4* NCAAF POD |
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08-30-14 | LSU v. Wisconsin +4 | 28-24 | Push | 0 | 3 h 12 m | Show | |
Wisconsin +4 2.2* play |
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08-30-14 | Arkansas +18.5 v. Auburn | 21-45 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 23 m | Show | |
Arkansas +18.5 3.3* NCAAF College Assurance Bret Bielema is a damn fine coach and despite the results last year he was not that far away. Bielema loves to trash talk the tempo offense and now he gets his shot after an entire off season to prepare. Look for him to run the ball and kill the clock in this one and he should have no issue doing so. Auburn's defense is far from elite and they gave up 200+ yards rushing to 6 teams last year including Arkansas. This team actually gave up a more yards to power running teams which is exactly what Arkansas is with RB's Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams. Overall Auburn's offense is much better and they are going to be hard to stop but I expect Arkansas can limit their possessions and I do like their defense a bit better along with the impressive hires they did for the defense gives me plenty of confidence and value on taking Arkansas at +18.5. |
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08-30-14 | UCLA v. Virginia +21 | Top | 28-20 | Win | 100 | 35 h 25 m | Show |
Virginia +21 5.5* NCAAF POD |
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08-30-14 | Penn State v. Central Florida -2 | 26-24 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 59 m | Show | |
UCF -2 3.3* NCAAF POD |
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08-29-14 | Texas-San Antonio +10.5 v. Houston | Top | 27-7 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
UTSA +10.5 4.4* NCAAF POD |
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08-28-14 | Ole Miss v. Boise State +11 | 35-13 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
Boise State +11 3.3* College Assurance |
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08-28-14 | Texas A&M +11 v. South Carolina | Top | 52-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
Texas A&M +10.5 4.4* NCAAF POD South Carolina and Texas A&M get the SEC network started and both will be without two of the biggest names in college football as Manziel and Clowney are now in the NFL. However, what remains are two top coaches in Kevin Sumlin and Steve Spurrier and two top 10 recruiting classes. South Carolina returns more starters, but I don't believe it's enough to warrant being double digit favorites to start the year. First of all Kevin Sumlin is a very very good offensive coach and A&M is 10-2 on the road with him at the helm. He also has blue chip guys at all of the skill positions including two at QB and two at RB. The offensive line is always a strength with this unit as they return 4 of their 5 starters after losing Jake Mathews to the NFL draft. This unit has the potential to be better. As of today I think Texas A&M's offense is better than South Carolina's who are dealing with the loss of two of their best offensive players in Ellington and Shaw. The offense has to completely change for them with Dylan Thompson who is a completely different QB. I think Thompson is capable, but again this offense will be built to run the football which should benefit us in covering the double digit spread by slowing the game down. This spread is where it's at due to the loss of starters and how bad the defense looked last year for A&M, but their is a silver lining. A&M's defense picked it up last part of the year and they won't be dealing with the injury crisis they were in 2013. I don't think this unit is far from being a top 50 defense and I think they'll be able to handle a more traditional one dimensional attack to open the season. Spurrier and the Gamecocks were 37th in rushing play % and the same the year before. With the strength of the offensive line I see no reason why they won't try to run the ball 60% of the time to ensure victory. So A&M gets the nod on offense, South Carolina gets the edge on defense, and I think A&M gets the nod on special teams. South Carolina has a senior punter in Hall but he averaged just 37.8 yards per punt and the South Carolina lacks any type of a return game and that's nothing new the last five years they have ranked 94th, 75th, 112th, 86th, and 114th in the nation. That will not benefit you early in the season against a good coach and a talented team with potential. A&M's kicker averaged 47.4 yards and their place kicker often forced touchbacks. I think A&M will be able to benefit from field advantage |
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02-02-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. Denver Broncos -2 | Top | 43-8 | Loss | -100 | 141 h 27 m | Show |
Broncos -2 5.5* MAX NFL POD
Both teams come into this game with their own strengths and at 3 losses a piece we saw where each team was most vulnerable. For Denver it's their defense particularly in pass coverage and for Seattle it's their run defense. The teams that showed success in beating Denver this season had to control time of posession and to do that you have to pick up third downs and have a QB that has poise in the pocket. Russell Wilson has been fantastic, but he just simply does not have the weapons to stay on the field. Their offense really struggled down the stretch and they were ranked 18th in third down offense converting just 37%. San Diego who gave Denver all kinds of issues was 2nd and had more of a pocket passer in Phillip Rivers. San Diego was also 2nd in TOP where Seattle is 17th. To beat Seattle you have to be able to stop their running game and you have to be able to pound the ball because their pass defense is just so good. However, Denver's rushing attack has been hit or miss, but for Seattle they have not faced an offense with this many weapons all year. When you look at the opponents they have faced they have faced on 1 team in the top 10 in scoring and that was the Colts who they lost to. They only faced 2 teams in the top 10 in yards per play and Denver is #1. While they are great in pass rush and pass coverage Peyton Manning is just too smart and he'll let Richard Sherman take away Demaryious Thomas he still has Welker, Decker, and Julius Thomas and others while Monte Ball and Knowshown Moreno have shown explosiveness towards the end of the year as well. Seattle is weak against the rush ranked 13th and Arizona showed as well did Tampa as two poor rushing teams ranked 28th and 26th in ypc that you can run at this defense as both teams ran for over 139 yards on the road. The Seahawks are small in their front 7 and only played 4 teams in the top 10 all year in rushing ypc while on average they faced an opponent ranked 19th. For Denver their key is to stop Marshawn Lynch and in my prop package I go on extensively on how they were very good against top 10 rushing attacks. Seattle is ranked 13th in ypc and Denver held many of the 9 top 10 rushing attacks under control while going 8-1 against those teams with their only loss coming at the hands of Tom Brady who had a great come back. Denver ranked 7th in ypc allowed and 4th in yards allowed on the season and really buckled down in the playoffs. I really think this defense played better than I gave them credit while Seattle's offense played worse than I thought they would. Denver's strengths are much stronger than Seattle's and I do believe Seattle has more weaknesses that Denver can exploit. Denver has far too much experience and the NFL is now an offensive league I don't care how cold it is it seems as though the offensive team forces its hand much more often than the defensive team and that favors the Broncos big. I would not be shocked if we saw the Broncos run away with this game, because I just don't think Seattle can score with Denver. Over 3.5 Field Goals +125 (Risk 1 Unit) I've got the over in this one as Seattle was #2 in the league this season allowing just 39.02% TD's in the red zone while Denver ranked 28th at 62.12%. Denver was #1 in red zone offense with 72.73% of their opportunities resulting in a TD, but they struggled over their last 3 at just 57.14% while Seattle ranked just 14th, but only 25% over their last 3. Both teams also have 2 experienced kickers in Matt Prater and Steven Hauschka who can kick it in the cold. I think both defenses will have the advantage in this situation. First Score of the game = Field Goal/Safety +120 (Risking 1 Unit) I see a lot of value in this line because of what I mentioned from both teams in the red zone, but looking at the numbers there have been 36 games played by these two teams this year and it's an exact split with 18 of the 36 being having a field goal as the first score of the game. Only 4 of the Broncos 18 games resulted in a FG being the first score of the game. Those 4 games were against the Patriots, Chiefs, Giants, and Texans. That sounds amazing only the Broncos faced just one team that was ranked in the top 10 in red zone defense and they faced that team in week 1 at home when the Ravens defense was basically rebuilt and not performing at the time. They faced 5 of the 6 worst teams in red zone defense and their division was very bad, Chargers who they played 3 times were ranked 24th, Oakland 22nd and the Chiefs 16th. Seattle really struggled to get the ball in the end zone down the stretch and I like that Denver's strength is defending the run. Seattle really lacks a red zone threat and that's going to make it hard for them. The first score in both of the Seahawks playoff games have been field goals and that's been the story in 8 of their last 9 games and in reverse of Denver only 4 games of their 18 resulted in a TD being scored first which is proof that we have the value at +120. Seahawks U132.5 Rushing Yards -110 (Risking 1 Unit) I like the under here, because the Broncos have been a very under rated rushing defense ranked 7th in ypc allowed and 4th in yards per game. Broncos were 10th in big rushing plays allowed which is in the company of the 49ers and the Cardinals teams Seattle struggled to run on this year. That's the only way I see the Seahawks getting over this number but with the extra time to prepare I just don't see them finding those type of holes in a game this big. Denver has played their fair share of mobile QB's in Vick, Pryor (2x), and RGIII and have kept them under control. In Fact the Broncos have faced 9 of their 18 opponents who are ranked in the top 10 in rushing ypc and have only allowed 107.33 in those games with only 3 going over the 132.5. While the Seahawks have played just 8 games against top 10 rushing defenses and only averaged 112.5 compared with their season average of 112.5. Under 1.5 Total Interceptions +110 (Risking 1.5 Units) Both QB's take care of the ball as Denver was ranked 2nd with a 1.46% interception percentage of passing attempts, while Russell Wilson was 7th at 1.94%. Denver was ranked 18th at forcing interceptions this year and they could have been worse considering how much they were probably able to gamble being up big in games. Now Seattle was ranked 1st in opponent INT%, but they faced only 3 QB's that I would consider elite. Drew Brees 2x, Andrew Luck, and Matt Ryan and those 4 games resulted in 0 INT's on 146 passing attempts. Peyton Manning Longest Passing Completion U37.5 Yards -110 (Risking 2 Units) I'm taking the under here not only did Seattle only allow 15 passing plays over 25 yards all year over 18 games, but the Broncos mostly dominated the weak passing defenses facing just 3 opponents in the top 15 in big passing plays allowed. In those 3 games Manning attempted 153 passes with only 1 pass going for more than 37.5 yards which was a 38 yard connection to Demaryius Thomas against the Titans. Seattle has a great pass rush and sure tacklers on the back end. Manning won't take a chance at getting sacked as he led the league in being sacked the fewest times. I expect him to be getting rid of the ball quick with a balanced running attack meaning this play has plenty of value in my opinion. |
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01-19-14 | New England Patriots +5.5 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 16-26 | Loss | -104 | 50 h 13 m | Show |
Patriots +5.5 -104 5.5* NFL POD
Denver's defense has looked almost elite recently, but lets cool down a bit the loss of CB Chris Harris is a big one and they are already without Von Miller. They have only faced 6 opponents in the top 10 in scoring offense and 2 times it was KC who is only at that level because of their defense. They faced Dallas and allowed 48 points, New England and allowed 34 (31 in 1 half), Colts 39, and the Eagles 20 - who were still with Mike Vick. Now New England's offense has evolved and I think it's going to be extremely challenging for the Broncos to come up with a game plan. I wouldn't be shocked if Brady and co came out firing and throwing it 40 times after last week's run first campaign, but they can clearly run the ball too as Lagarrette Blount showed down the stretch. I just think we are getting tremendous value on the Patriots with more than a field goal to play with. Under Bill Belichick the Patriots are 20-8 ATS when they are under dogs 3.5 to 9.5 points and they are 45-26-3 ATS in their last 74. The line is marked up a bit because of the great season Peyton Manning had and everything he has to prove, but don't think for a second that Tom Brady doesn't have something to prove. Most people still consider Brady the worse QB of the two and Brady still wants another ring and there is a reason he is 18-7 in the playoffs while Manning is 10-11 and Brady is 10-4 straight up vs. Manning. Overall it's a team game and I think the Patriots have the better team and coaching staff and I think we are getting some line value here especially since it went back up to 5.5. Don't forget the Patriots turned the ball over 3 times and handed the Broncos a big 1st half lead and I'm not so sure the Broncos wouldn't have lost by 20 points had that not happen. I'm predicting the Patriots to win this game outright although I'll only wager on the side since I already have a futures play pending on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl. |
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01-12-14 | San Diego Chargers +8.5 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
[b]Chargers +8 4.4* NFL POD[/b]
The Chargers are still flying under the radar and really came down the stretch playing their best football. Last weekend they won despite losing their best offensive linemen to a stinger, but I expect him back this week which will only help. Nobody played the Broncos tougher than the Chargers did this season. The Chargers were the only defense to hold the Broncos under 400 yards and they did it twice by limiting the number of plays by controlling the time of possession. There is nothing that Peyton Manning can do to fix that. It will be completely up to the defense of the Denver Broncos to limit what Phillip Rivers and the Chargers do to control the clock and I don't think they are up to the task. The Chargers are running the ball as good as any team in the league behind their offensive line and Ryan Mathews and the always under rated Danny Woodhead. There is also something to be said about playing a divisional opponent in the playoffs because that means it is the third time you face a team. If anything this game should stay close because these teams know each other well. Peyton Manning did not have an extra week to prepare against the Chargers, because he did not know they were going to win until last week. Manning who has struggled in the playoffs for whatever reason has also struggled against the Chargers defense many times. I see his possessions being limited by the Chargers who will dominate the time of possession again. |
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01-11-14 | New Orleans Saints +10 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 15-23 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
Saints +10 4.4* NFL POD
Once this jumped to 10 points this morning at several books I just could not pass up the value. I realize the Saints got smoked here earlier in the season in what was a huge game which set up home field advantage and that the Saints have struggled on the road. However, I think the fact that the Saints did play here in a BIG game where the world record was set for noise in a Stadium means they will be better prepared or at least better prepared for what happened that night. Drew Brees is already making adjustments as well as Sean Payton for this big game. I think having a bye is sometimes a disadvantage and I think the Saints are starting to click after winning a big road game last week where they put up 185 yards rushing. Mark Ingraham, Khiry Robinson, and Darren Sproles were great against the Eagles and I think that's where they can beat this Seahawks team. The Seahawks are not a big bunch in the front 7 and all year long when they have struggled at home it's been when they gave up some rushing yards. Take a look at the Tampa game where they had come back to win 27-24 as a 16 point favorite. Mike James rushed for 158 yards that game and then their game against the Cardinals at the end of the season they gave up 143 yards rushing in a 17-10 win. The Saints only rushed the ball 16 times in their last trip to Seattle and coming off a game where their rushing game worked gives them plenty of confidence to run it 20+ times and if they do that I see them covering this huge number. Both the Cardinals and the Bucs did not have a QB like Brees and I think Brees can have a decent game here today against this secondary. For the Seattle offense they struggled down the stretch and were no longer putting up huge numbers. I think their offense can do enough to win, but it's going to have to be by running the ball against the Saints defense. Russel Wilson has plenty of weapons now that Percy Harvin is back, but you have to wonder just how healthy Harvin is and just how hard he's going to play. The Seahawks are 37-17-1 ATS in their last 55 home games and that trend just can not continue and I think there is a lot of value in laying 10 points because Vegas is pushing this number so far up there. |
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01-06-14 | Auburn +10.5 v. Florida State | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Auburn +10.5 5.5** NCAAF POD
I'll take the Tigers against the "unbeatable Seminoles." I looked at several aspects of this game, but what I started with was strength of schedule. Not only is the ACC over rated and have gone 4-5 in bowl games, but the SEC is better than last year and is not down based on some experts claims. The SEC is 7-2 in bowl games and Georgia played without their star QB and Alabama didn't want to be there. SEC had 30 wins vs. top 25 teams while the ACC had 2 going 2-26. The Seminoles had the 39th hardest schedule compared to Auburn's 6th. Seminoles non-conference schedule really boosted a lot of stats as they faced a helpless Florida team and then Bethune Cookman, Nevada and Idaho who are both way at the back of solid college football teams. Nonetheless we give the Seminoles plenty of credit for winning all of their games by 27 or more points with the exception of Boston College..... BC was the one team that Florida State faced in the top 40 in rushing ypc. BC was 12th and as we saw in their bowl game they were not that good against Arizona. However, Auburn ranked 5th and they don't appear to be slowing down. FSU gave up 200 yards to Boston College and if you don't believe Auburn is a better team you are crazy. In this game I think absolutely Auburn will be able to run the ball. They may have to be a little creative to get it going, but with extra time to prepare Guz Malzahn is a genius. This is a guy that broke Auburn records with over 4,000 yards rushing and is also responsible for a 5,000 passing season at Tulsa. I give the coaching edge to Auburn. It's not like Nick Marshall can't pass either. Marshall came in early knowing only 25% of the playbook, but you could see this offense get better with every game this season and the depth they have at RB is solid to pair with Heisman candidate Tre Mason. I don't see a game on Florida State's schedule that they had to prepare for an offense even remotely close to what Auburn can do. Which means I believe Auburn will get their points. Now their defense is another story, but hidden under everything... Auburn's ability to hold up on third down holding opponents to 34% and in the red zone they have been amazing holding opponents to 48% TD's will keep them in this game. If they can get pressure on Winston and cause a couple of turnovers I think they can win and Florida State was not great at protecting Winston ranked 83rd in pass protection. A couple of game changers on Auburn's side obviously we know the Nick Marshall and Tre Mason's of the world, but Chris Davis at corner back and Sammie Coates at WR are really really good. This entire Auburn team believes they are a team of destiny and they continue to fight back no matter the situation. Florida State has never been in a tight game in the 4th. Winston seems cool under pressure, but I think Florida State thinks they already won this game while the idea of nobody thinking you can win is really motivating in preparation for an Auburn team. I think 10.5 points is just too much for a team like Florida State who I feel is unproven especially vs. a really good running team. |
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01-05-14 | Arkansas State +7 v. Ball State | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
[b]Ark State +7 2.75* play[/b]
I've been fading the MAC all Bowl season with the exception of Ohio which collapsed against East Carolina in the 4th quarter, but the MAC is 0-4 and very over rated. Ball State put up huge numbers behind the duo of Sneed and Wenning, but they did a lot of it against poor teams. They faced only two other bowl teams and lost both of those games while the very over rated Northern Illinois team crushed them. They got an easy non-conference schedule and then skipped over 3 of the 4 bowl teams in the MAC while playing the 3 worst. Anyone can put up big numbers against those type of teams. Arkansas State on the other hand faced both of SEC division champs in Missouri and Auburn in their non-conference schedule which really helped them down the stretch. They also have a senior QB in Adam Kennedy who got hot down the stretch and he's accurate and he can also run the ball. Take a look at the last time Ball State faced a rushing QB (N. Illinois). Ball State allowed 7 teams to rush for 200+ yards and 6 teams to rush over 5 ypc. The key to winning for Arkansas State is rushing the ball as they have 5.23 in their wins and 3.40 in their losses. I think in the end Arkansas State has more of a capability of stopping Wenning than Ball State can stop the running attack of Arkansas State. Arkansas State also does not beat themselves with 13 turnovers all season while Ball State was -4 in the TO margin in their losses. |
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01-05-14 | San Diego Chargers +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
[b]Chargers +7 5.5* NFL POD; Chargers +250 1* bonus[/b]
If today's games were any indication that the NFL is now an offensive game even in the playoffs then I don't know what else to say. The Chargers have a better offense in almost every statistical category. Rivers is 5th in yards per play and #1 in third down efficiency, but the biggest reason for Rivers resurgence has been the play of a healthy offensive line. You see dividends being paid to the running backs as well with Ryan Mathews coming on strong and the always fun to watch Danny Woodhead. Down the stretch though Keenan Allen has been great and some would say even better than A.J. Green who was held under 100 yards receiving in all 6 of his last games. Allen had 5 TD's in his last 3 games and has a 67.6% catch rate on targets to Green's 54%. We are getting tremendous value here because the public's perception on the Bengals is extremely high because they have won and covered all 8 of their games, but this is the playoffs and Marvin Lewis has yet to win here and Andy Dalton is just far too inconsistent and makes too many mistakes that are magnified in these type of games. The Chargers are playing with house money and even have a little revenge after they lost 17-10 at home to the Bengals in a game that was decided by turnovers. Rivers and the Chargers have been on a roll since and are the hot team that I think can do a lot of damage in the playoffs. This is not the same Chargers team that would easily lose on the road and it's finally Rivers time to step up and get a big win in the playoffs after being so dominating in December over his career he's truly an elite QB and the Bengals are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 January and 0-4 ATS int heir last 4 playoff games. |
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01-04-14 | Houston +2.5 v. Vanderbilt | 24-41 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 21 m | Show | |
write up coming
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01-03-14 | Clemson v. Ohio State -3 | Top | 40-35 | Loss | -104 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
Ohio State -2.5 5.5** NCAAF POD
There are a lot of statistics I went through this game before making a selection, but the last thing I looked at was the coaching and the edge is clearly on Urban Meyer. Clemson under Swinney are 2-3 SU and ATS in bowl games and they are 11-6 SU and 8-8 ATS following a loss which once again they came off of against South Carolina a superior opponent. Urban Meyer throughout his career is 12-1 SU and 9-2-2 ATS following a loss. We already saw when Michigan State beat Stanford that the loss was legit. We also saw Iowa give LSU everything they could so the Big Ten is gaining respect and I think we get this line at a value. Also Meyer is 6-1 SU and ATS in bowl games and don't forget Ohio State has not been able to go since the 2011 season. I don't see that you'll see the traditional hang over from being one game away from the National Championship. Now that we have the better coach on our side I took a look at what each team does well and where there struggles were and can they over come them to win this game? With that said I think we all know that both teams have great offenses and the defenses are not very good. Can Clemson stop Ohio State's nation leading rushing attack? The answer is no, actually it is an absolutely no chance no way. There were a lot of great running backs, but Carlos Hyde was the best one I saw all year. Braxton Miller is also easily a top rusher not as only a QB so stopping that just is not going to be possible. Clemson's run defense allowed 200+ to all 3 solid rushing teams they faced. The #1 key in this game probably though is Ohio State's pass defense which really struggled and I think this is where the coaching comes into play. This is where the time off really benefits the Buckeyes and don't forget Urban Meyer played DB in college. Clemson is 86th in protecting their QB and Ohio State has a great pass rush ranking 28th in sack %. Noah Spence and Joey Bosa and Ryan Shazier are all top talents. Both South Carolina and Florida State featured top 40 pass rushes that defeated Clemson. Clemson has a 96 QB rating in their losses and a 175 QB rating in their wins. Ohio State is also great at getting tackles in the backfield with 89 on the season which is impressive for a Big 12 team. To put it in perspective Michigan State's had 91, and Clemson allowed 88, while Ohio State only had 46. Which sets us up for how a team is going to do on 3rd down. Ohio State held opponents to 34% conversions on third down while Clemson held opponents to 31%, but in Clemson's losses they allowed 58% and we already established that Ohio State will play ahead of the chains all game long with their elite running tandem. They were 49% on third down this season better than Clemson's offense which was 44%. The same is transitioned over to the red zone where Ohio State was 83% on 60 attempts to Clemson 67% on 56 attempts. In the end the Buckeyes need and want a post season win and Urban Meyer is thirsty for one. Dabo Swinney got his big upset last year vs. LSU. I look for Ohio State to get a double digit win for us. |
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01-03-14 | Oklahoma State -1 v. Missouri | 31-41 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 41 m | Show | |
[b]Oklahoma State -1 4.4* PLAY[/b]
Wow what a crazy match up this is as both teams had a chance to win their final game and win their conference championship but came up short. Both teams used to face off against each other in the Big 12 and Mike Gundy and Gary Pinkel know plenty of each other. Gundy has won 3 of the 4 match ups including one game where he was a +14 under dog on the road. He is also 12-3 in his last 15 games following a SU loss and he is 5-2 in bowl games while Pinkel is just 4-4 in many more seasons in bowl games at Missouri. For Missouri it was almost the perfect season and they are a solid team, but what you won't see in the stat line is some of their luck of facing teams at the right time. Florida and Georgia were both banged up when they defeated them and then South Carolina had a miracle come back after dominating most of the game so even though I was high on Missouri throughout the season I knew at times they were very fortunate and I don't think they can get up for this game after coming off a tough SEC match up where they gave up so many rushing yards in the end if the defense does not get a pass rush and are making tackles for loss they just cant' stop you. Oklahoma State is able to beat good offenses. Just take a look at their wins vs. Kansas State who is 13th in QB rating and Baylor who was 4th. In both of their losses their QB struggled. I think he'll be fine in this game however because Missouri won't be getting sacks as Oklahoma State is 5th in protecting the QB. Missouri is 100th in completion % defense and 103rd in passing yards allowed so I see Oklahoma State being able to move the ball through the air at will. Even bigger keys are what Missouri didn't do when they lost games and in their 2 losses they could not convert on third down with 23%, Oklahoma St holds opponents to 31% which is better than Missouri's 37% defense. Missouri also converts 70% of their red zone attempts into TD's, but only 50% in losses which was their issue against Auburn. Oklahoma State is great in the red zone even better than Auburn and South Carolina holding opponents to 41% and it will be the reason they win this game. |
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01-02-14 | Oklahoma +17 v. Alabama | 45-31 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
2.2* bonus
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01-01-14 | Michigan State +6.5 v. Stanford | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show | |
Michigan State +6.5 +100 3* play[/b]
Wow even without Max Bullough I still think Michigan State has tremendous value here when you take a look at the keys. How do you beat Stanford? The games that Stanford has lost or struggled in a few things happened. In wins Keith Hgan had a 163 QB rating and in losses a 114 QB rating. Hogan never played well against the good pass defenses and Michigan State is #1 with legit lock down corners that will play you in man coverage. They faced 5 top 40 pass defenses and his QB ratings were all bad 110, 120, 85.5 and 83. He's just not a game changer and that will allow Michigan State to stack the box. The next thing is to protect the ball and that's something Michigan State does very well. In both of Stanford's losses they were negative in turnover margin and they were -1 on the season as good as their defense was they don't force turnovers. Michigan State does not turn the ball over and is +14 in turnovers this year. The third thing is to stay ahead of the chains. Michigan State has a very under rated offensive line that never seems to get credit, but they played a great game vs. Ohio State who has a great pass rush. Stanford's defense has not been dominant when they can't get to the QB and create negative plays which go hand in hand in turnovers. Michigan State was 12th in pass protection and only allowed 13 sacks. Guess what Stanford had just 3 sacks in their 2 losses combined. Some may point to the Notre Dame game and ask why Michigan State lost and I would say they got robbed. Watching that game there were 10 penalties for 115 yards which changed the game. A lot of tick tack pass interference calls. I would also say that Michigan State's offense has improved drastically since especially Connor Cook who seems to make great decisions and has a big arm. I think Stanford is going to have a tougher time stopping Michigan State's offense than they did with Wisconsin last year as Cook is better than Curt Phillips. Michigan State will also dominate the field position battle as their punter is very under rated. Mike Sadler will pin you inside your 10 with ease and that can only make the Spartans offense better in the long run. |
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01-01-14 | Wisconsin -1 v. South Carolina | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 50 m | Show | |
Wisconsin -1.5 3.3* play[/b]
I find it a little strange that South Carolina at #9 is an under dog against a Big 10 team that's ranked #19, but Wisconsin was better than their loss vs. Penn State and they deserved better than what happened at Arizona State and if you watched the Ohio State game they actually played better. Both teams love to run the ball and win with the run and that is what I concentrated on in this game Wisconsin was 2nd in ypc rushing offense while South Carolina was averaging nearly 2 yards less and Wisconsin ranked 15th in rushing defense while South Carolina is ranked 57th. Whenever South Carolina played good rushing offenses they seemed to struggle and this is the best rushing attack they will face all year long. I made a lot of money on South Carolina this season and I think Connor Shaw is a very good college QB, but I don't even know if he will make it through this game the way Wisconsin plays physical football. He is also notorious for coming up short in big games that he's not playing in his own stadium so I think Wisconsin wins here. |
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01-01-14 | Iowa v. LSU -7 | Top | 14-21 | Push | 0 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
LSU -6.5 -120 5.5* NCAAF POD[/b]
Iowa's staple defeat was ironically Nebraska who we are backing and I don't think it was very impressive when you look at how banged up Nebraska was for that game then you add in the fact that they had 4 injuries during the game and it's not shock that a physical team like Iowa lost that game. Whenever Iowa had to step up their play to play an elite team they lost. They lost by 12 to Michigan State 10 to Ohio State and 19 to Wisconsin. I would not call Northern Illinois an elite team, but they do have a dominant rushing attack and Iowa lost to them as well. LSU is of the same caliber running the ball as Wisconsin and Ohio State and although Iowa was 18th vs. the run this year and feature some of the best linebackers they allowed 273 and 218 to those two teams. LSU should be able to move the ball on the ground even without the threat of Zack Mettenberger's arm. If anything I think Anthony Jennings will provide for a better rushing attack, because he is also a threat to rip off yards in chunks. Cam Cameron is a very good offensive mind and the extra time will allow him to put things into the game that fit to Jennings who has a ton of upside. It will help that Iowa is among the worst in the nation at getting to the QB ranking 75th in sack %. Jennings also has a pair of NFL ready receivers in Landry and Beckham that just don't exist in the Big Ten. On the flip side LSU's defense is young and really emerged as the season went on. They held Johny Football to 10 points and the elite Auburn attack to 21 points. I really think the extra time benefits LSU's defense the most in this game and I don't Iowa can put up 10 points. Iowa lacks any type of player that can stretch a defense and change the game and LSU knows it. LSU has some great athletes and they should be able to cheat up and make plays behind the line of scrimmage. LSU owes their fans for the last two years with the collapse against Clemson and their shocking defeat in the Championship vs. Alabama. Iowa is not in the caliber of those two teams and I see LSU cruising to an easy victory by double digits. |
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01-01-14 | Nebraska +9 v. Georgia | 24-19 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
Nebraska +9 3.3* Play[/b]
This is a rare occasion where you play the same team in back to back bowl games. Now Nebraska was nothing special this year, but I believe the revenge factor with all the time to prepare is going to be a factor. Georgia also has been killed by injuries all year and now they are without their most important player in Aaron Murray as Hutson Mason will have his work cut out for him. Georgia has not done well against run first teams and Nebraska has an excellent running game with a top 5 running back in Ameer Abdullah. Georgia was 2-4 vs. teams that ran the ball 37+ times this year in a game and their wins were by 7 and 3 points. Nebraska averaged 45 carries per game and had just 2 games with less than 37 carries in losses against Minnesota and Michigan State. |
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12-31-13 | Mississippi State -7 v. Rice | 44-7 | Win | 100 | 17 h 30 m | Show | |
[b]Miss St -6.5 -120 buy 1/2 4* play[/b]
Miss State is 83rd in run defense allowing 4.6 ypc and Rice is 9th in the country running ball 65% of the time. Miss State wins when they stop the run and a closer look reveals just how challenging of a schedule they have had facing 9 top 50 rushing offense in which they only allowed 200+ yards 3 times. They held an explosive Auburn team to a season low 120 yards and they did it on the road so I truly believe they can stop Rice from running the ball and Rice is completely one dimensional. Conference USA was 1-16 vs. top 40 teams and when you look at Miss State's schedule they were far better than their record indicated. I think this will be a game where the defense just takes over and the benefits of holding Rice to 3 and outs will benefit the offense that also likes to runt he ball with a power attack. All 6 of Miss State teams are to top 25 teams and I just feel they are a far better team than Rice who had their glory by upsetting Marshall in the CUSA Championship. |
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12-31-13 | Boston College +7.5 v. Arizona | Top | 19-42 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
[b]Boston College +7.5 4.4* NCAAF POD[/b]
This game is going to be a very exciting game featuring two of the best running backs in the country in Ka'Deem Carey and Andre Williams. Looking at this game it's going to be important to stop the run, but both of these running backs have been pretty match up proof running well against even the best. However, I give the edge to Boston College's rushing defense ranked 36th in the country over Arizona ranked 73rd. Arizona did face a stronger dose of running games in the PAC 12, but not by far and their 3-3-5 defense is better for defending spread rushing offenses. Every time they faced a north and south rushing game like BC they were allowing big games. BC on the other hand played their best running the ball against top run defenses and defending against the top rushing offenses. They held Florida State to 159 yards and were the only team to really scare Florida State on the season and they played extremely well at Clemson. Boston College is much stronger in the front 7 with 14 more sacks and 12 more tackles for loss. What type of run defenses did these two go up again? Arizona rarely had to go on the road to face a good run defense and only faced 5 top 50 run stop units all year and they'll face #6 in their bowl game while Boston College had to face 8 top 50 run defenses and many on the road. They faced two top 10 rushing defenses in Virginia Tech and Florida State and they had 87 carries for 396 yards. Many will point to the USC game that both of these teams had to travel to as why Arizona is better at stopping or running the ball, but that's a ridiculous trip for BC who had to go on the road the next week to face FSU after traveling across the country. This game is going to start at 12:30 on New Years Eve and I give the edge to BC in that scenario. Overall I don't see a drastic difference between these two teams for there to be a 7 point spread. Thought I spoke on the rushing games a ton there are QB's playing in this game that will be called upon and BC has the better more capable QB in Rettig and a WR in Alex Amidon while Arizona has a better secondary, but they lack a pass rush. I give a slight edge to BC for balance on offense and I would give them a decent shot at pulling off the upset thus the 7.5 points give us tremendous value here. |
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12-30-13 | Ole Miss -3 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 25-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
Ole Miss -3 -103 5.5* NCAAF POD
Georgia Tech running the triple option is a tough team to prepare for, but when you take a look at their success in bowl games it's obvious that the extra time definitely benefits the opposing team. Last year they beat USC in their bowl game, but they are 1-7 in their previous 8 bowl games and we see the same struggles from Navy who runs the same offense. Georgia Tech will run the ball over 75% of the time and Ole Miss is young on defense, but they have the athletes and talent to stop this triple option. They ranked 54th vs. the run this year, but what was even more impressive was how they did having to face 8 top 50 rushing offenses, 5 of which were in the top 25. Ole Miss had a much stronger schedule to work through and came up with big wins. The only big win that Georgia Tech came up with all year long was Duke and that was before anyone knew Duke was any good. Ole Miss was close on the road against Auburn, and they beat LSU. They did struggle down the stretch, but a win here and we will be looking at this team completely different. Hugh Freeze is a good coach and Ole Miss has had success in these bowl games I also think their offense is going to give Georgia Tech major issues. Ole Miss is a balanced offense but when they can pass the ball they generally win. They were 36th in QB rating led by an experienced Bo Wallace. In wins this year Ole Miss had a 158 QB rating and in losses a 114 QB rating. Georgia Tech in wins allowed a 106 QB rating and in losses allowed a 180 QB rating. They only faced three teams with a better QB rating than Ole Miss and in all three games the defense allowed 45, 41 and 55 points. Georgia did not even have Aaron Murray and still hung up 41 points on Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech was 95th in yards per pass attempt 94th in QB rating and 85th in yards allowed. They played an average 59th ranked passing offense not including the two non FBS schools in Elon and Alabama A&M that helped skew some of their defensive and offensive stats on the season. Overall they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. the SEC and Ole Miss is 18-5 ATS in their last 23 non-conference games. It looks too easy, but sometimes it is, go Rebels! |
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12-30-13 | Middle Tenn State +7 v. Navy | 6-24 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 29 m | Show | |
[b]MTSU +7 3.3* Early Bird Special / MTSU +220 1* PLAY[/b]
I like fading these triple option offenses in the post season, because they do not have as much flexibility in their playbook and the extra time for a defense to prepare makes it hard for them to win games. Navy is 1-5 in their last 6 bowl games and Georgia Tech is 1-7 in their last 8. MTSU is a solid team that is playing with a chip on their shoulder this bowl season after going 8-4 last year and not getting a bowl invite. MTSU was ranked 65th in rushing defense this year, but they played better down the stretch also it's worth noting that in 2012 when their defense was worse and they faced Georgia Tech with extra time to prepare they won 49-28. Their linebackers are under sized, but fast and athletic which is a good match up going up against Navy. Navy has one guy that the defense can key on and that's Keenan Reynolds. If you can stop Reynolds you win the game. MTSU does not beat themselves with just 4 penalties per game and a +11 turnover margin. They also are 7-0 when they run for over 200 yards which they should be able to do against a very bad Navy rushing team ranked 84th in yards per carry allowed. This run defense allowed Hawaii who ranked 110th in rushing the ball to go for 218 yards in their own building. MTSU is ranked 29th and should have plenty of success especially with a veteran behind center in Logan Killgore who should be able to get TD's in the red zone because Navy allowed 71% TD's in red zone defense and they were terrible on third down as well. I see Navy can get the running game going a bit, but it won't be enough as their defense just can't make any stops. |
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12-29-13 | Kansas City Chiefs +8.5 v. San Diego Chargers | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
2.2* play
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12-29-13 | San Francisco 49ers +3 v. Arizona Cardinals | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
49ers +3 4.4* play
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12-29-13 | Green Bay Packers v. Chicago Bears +3 | Top | 33-28 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
Bears +3 5.5* NFL POD
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12-29-13 | Detroit Lions -1 v. Minnesota Vikings | 13-14 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 44 m | Show | |
Lions -1 2.2* play
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12-29-13 | Carolina Panthers v. Atlanta Falcons +7 | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 2 h 44 m | Show | |
3.3* play
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12-29-13 | Jacksonville Jaguars +11 v. Indianapolis Colts | 10-30 | Loss | -107 | 2 h 44 m | Show | |
2.2** play
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12-28-13 | Michigan v. Kansas State -5.5 | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 25 h 48 m | Show | |
Kansas State -5.5 2.2* bonus
Kansas State is an old school football team. They win and cover when they are able to run the ball and stop the run. I know this is a huge public favorite, but I looked back and since 2009 Kansas State is 62.7% ATS when the majority of the public is backing them. I just don't see how Michigan can score points in this game they were 112th in ypc rushing offense this year and they'll have an inexperienced QB starting over Devin Gardner. For Kansas State's offense they should be able to run the ball because Michigan struggles against mobile QB's and Daniel Sams has been one of the best in the country for a rushing offense that again has been great. I expect Kansas State to win this game by more than a TD because they are going to be able to run the ball effectively and when you really look at it their offense can also pass the ball since they got their two receiving threats (Locket and Thompson) back so it's not like Michigan can just sell out on the run. |
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12-28-13 | Miami (Florida) +4.5 v. Louisville | Top | 9-36 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
Miami +4.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
If we are talking about strength of schedule Miami has played a far more challenging schedule on the year. In the end what really made me select this game was the match up for Louisville who really has not played that well this year at times against weak competition. Miami will be traveling 500 miles less than Louisville and they too will have a senior QB in Stephen Morris and a rushing game that even without Duke Johnson as they finished 28th in QB rating and 31st in rushing ypc. You could say with those stats that Miami could beat you both ways. Now when you look at Louisville they have been absolutely great on defense, but this is the best offense they have faced since Central Florida beat them and Miami is probably a little bit more balanced and better. Nobody else was even close as they only faced 1 team in the top 70 in rushing yards per carry with Central Florida ranking 64th. They faced 3 teams in the top 50 in QB rating and they lost the game to Central Florida and only won by a TD to both Cinci and Houston. Now Miami has weaknesses in their passing defense, but I think they will be able to match Louisville point for point and in the end there is just too much value on Miami who will be playing in their home state. |
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12-27-13 | Syracuse +4.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
Syracuse +4 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD
Syracuse lost this game at Minnesota last year, but mostly due to being -4 in turnover margin and they still only lost by 7 on the road. This game will be played on neutral field in Texas. Revenge is definitely a factor, but I think we are also getting some nice value here because the public has pounded Minnesota and one could only think why.... Syracuse lost to Penn State and Northwestern to open the season while Minnesota beat both those teams. Syracuse was expected to struggle especially early in the season with a completely new coaching staff and a new QB, but they have turned their season around nicely. When looking at this game it's all about the running games. Minnesota is 6th with a run play % at 67% while Syracuse is 39th with a 56.3%. I like the 4 points because it's hard to see Minnesota blowing any one out with the style of football they play. A deeper look at what each team does when they win and when they lose directly ties that success to running the football and stopping the run. So I took a deeper look at each team's rushing offense and defenses. Lets start with the running defenses. Minnesota allowed over 5ypc to 4 of their last 5 opponents and ranked 90th. Syracuse has only faced one opponent outside the top 60 in run defense and they won that game 24-10. Minnesota did play plenty of top rushing attacks, but their non-conference schedule was against some bad Mountain West teams while Syracuse scheduled the Big 10. Syracuse averages 5.25 ypc in their wins vs. 3.82 in their losses and they have two capable RB in Gulley who is back and Smith. The x-factor is their QB Terrel Hunt who averaged nearly 5 ypc and is a very under rated thrower from what I saw in the Boston College game. Syracuse should be able to run the ball here considering they ranked 45th doing so against 9 top 50 run defenses who on average ranked 40th. I can not say the same for Minnesota. When Minnesota has the ball they are far more 1 dimenstional than Syracuse and Syracuse on the surface has better stats stopping the run. They held Penn State at home to 1.5 ypc this year while Minnesota held them to 5.3 ypc. I throw the Northwestern common game out because Minnesota did not have to face them early in the year with a healthy Kain Colter who missed that game against Minnesota. Syracuse also stopped this same rushing attack in Minnesota a year ago holding them to 2.6 ypc. Syracuse should be able to do the same when they know what is coming and Minnesota can't win when they can't run. Minnesota's 54th ranked rushing game played an average 60th ranked rushing defense with only 5 in the top 40 in run defense like Syracuse. They went 1-4 in those 5 games. Turnovers are also a big issues for these two teams and neither one really has a considerable advantage as Minnesota is +9 in wins and -6 in losses while Syracuse is +8 in wins and -6 in losses. I will say this though Syracuse takes more chances they are +16 in tackles for loss and +14 in sacks compared with Minnesota who is +1 and -6. Those are the type of plays that cause turnovers. Syracuse is also better in third down defense. Overall though I think Terrel Hunt at QB for Syracuse is the difference maker that gets Syracuse the upset here today. |
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12-26-13 | Utah State +1 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 25 h 1 m | Show |
Utah State pk 5.5* NCAAF POD
We spoke in depth about the MAC and their struggles vs top teams and just plainly they are not very good. The Mountain West plays against the PAC 12 which is the #2 conference behind SEC, and Utah State played 2 teams out of that conference losing both games by less than a TD combined. Northern Illinois played Iowa out of the Big Ten and then ran through their cup cake schedule in the MAC before facing an actual defense in the championship game and their defense was exposed. Northern Illinois defense is a real weakness and Utah State is balanced on offense and defense, but the big key here is Utah State's strength in run defense vs. Northern Illinois rushing offense which ranked 4th, so lets take you through that, but before we do it's worth noting that the Mac faced off against the Mountain West conference and were favorites, but Buffalo was flat out dominated by San Diego State. Northern Illinois ranked 4th in rushing 16th in run play % making it easy for any defense to come up with a game plan to defeat them. Stop the run, which is something Utah State is ranked 10th in yards allowed and 3rd in yards per carry allowed. Northern Illinois schedule makes it no surprise why they were so good running the ball, but Jordan Lynch still deserves credit, but in the big game of the year he made mistakes throwing the ball. Northern Illinois faced 1 top 50 rushing defense, and they faced 5 that were ranked 112th or worse. Iowa only won 30-27, but Iowa lacks offensive balance and playmakers which is something Utah State has more of even without their star QB Chuckie Keeton. Utah State should be able to contain Lynch with star LB Jake Doughty and Zach Vigil. This rushing defense was legit as they did not allow a single rushing offense over 3.75 ypc and they faced a ton of talented running games with 5 in the top 30 and 8 in the top 50 in rushing ypc. Opponents had only 8 rushing touchdowns and it's no surprise that their red zone defense and third down defense were just flat out dominant allowing 32% and 41% in the red zone for TD percentage. This rushing defense faced 3 top 30 rushing offenses from a ypc perspective in their last 3 games and they held them to 1.12 ypc, 0.97 ypc and 1.60 ypc. That's just dominant and we saw against Bowling Green that Jordan Lynch could not throw and beat a solid pass defense which Utah State also has. Utah State ranked 22nd in opposing QB rating, 21st in opposing QB pass completion %, 24th in sack % and 41st in yards per attempt. The offenses are a wash statistically which should surprise you considering the defenses that you face in the MAC which to me means Utah State has the better offense and we already know they have the better defense. Utah State is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 non conference games while Northern Illinois is 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games while this game will be held in San Diego which is much closer for Utah State. |
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12-26-13 | Pittsburgh +5 v. Bowling Green | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
[b]Pittsburgh +5 3.3* Play[/b]
Bowling Green peaked when they won the MAC Championship for the first time in 21 years and their head coach Dave Clawson decided to move onto the Wake Forest job as their special teams coach takes over in the interim with no real head coaching experience. That's huge for a team going bowling coming off a conference championship, and Bowling Green is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games and they have 7 straight losses to major conference teams including Indiana 42-10 and Miss State 20-21 this year. The MAC is over rated and we saw it first hand with Bowling Green dominating Northern Illinois who went undefeated. The MAC was 1-16 this year vs. top 40 teams and just 6-47 vs. the top 75 teams. They face a Pitt team ranked 51st and the match up really intrigues me and I think we catch a ton of value here at +5. Pittsburgh had another 6-6 team, but they have their head coach and they are gaining traction. A 7-6 season would be great for the program since they moved to the ACC. The ACC had the 5th toughest schedule among conferences while the MAC was last and is already 0-2 SU and ATS in bowl games this season as both Buffalo and Ohio got waxed in their bowl games. Pitt came up with some big wins this year beating Syracuse on the road which is not easy to do and they also beat Duke and Notre Dame so it's not like Pitt is completely helpless. They also have the best players on offense and defense in DT Aaron Donald who won several awards along with WR Devin Street. Bowling Grene is known mostly for their defense, but they have had a balanced attack on offense, but a closer look and you can see why. Their offense faced just 1 opponent that was top 60 in both passing and rushing yards allowed and they put up 20 points, Pitt will be the 2nd. I think Bowling Green will have some issues on defense stopping the physical runners of Pitt who did not have a lot of success this year, but look for Tom Savage to open this game up early with his arm connecting with Devin Street and the all American freshmen Tyler Boyd. |
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12-24-13 | Oregon State -3 v. Boise State | Top | 38-23 | Win | 100 | 72 h 50 m | Show |
Oregon State -3 5.5* NCAAF POD
Before you dive too deep into stats you have to have an appreciation for each team's schedule and the one thing we noticed right off the bat was just how much better the Pac 12 was compared with the Mountain West. That was not always true in years past, but the Pac 12 was definitely an elite conference in 2013. Oregon State's strength of schedule was ranked 14th compared to Boise who was ranked 79th. The PAC 12 went 10-0 vs. the Mountain West in the regular season and USC dominated the MWC Champion Fresno State in their bowl game winning 45-20. Washington State had a 45-30 lead over Colorado State with 4 minutes to play before they fumbled multiple times to lose in regulation as the only loss the Pac 12 has had vs. the Mountain West. This is the first reason I really like Oregon State. The next reason has to do with the coaching change going on with Boise State as Chris Peterson finally moved on and took the Washington job. Of all the teams to lose their coach, Boise would be the one team I would say would be impacted by it the most. Then you look at the news and they already sent their starting QB home from the bowl for violating team rules. You can guess what that means.... Boise is enjoying this as a vacation where I think Oregon State has the better coach and control over their players. Oregon State lost their last 5 games of the season so they are hungry to go off on a high note especially with a senior laden team led by their QB Sean Mannion. They faced 5 top 50 pass defenses down the stretch and 3 were in the top 20. I was not surprised that they struggled down the stretch which leads me to my 3rd major reason why Oregon State will win this game. Oregon State is ranked 3rd in the nation with a passing play % of 65% so to beat them you have to be able to stop the pass which is evident by their struggles down the stretch vs. top passing defenses of the PAC 12. Boise is not very good at stopping the pass and Sean Mannion feasted on his other opponents this year with 29 TD's and only 4 INT if you were not ranked in the top 50 in pass defense. He has a serious weapon in Brandin Cooks who was the nation's best WR winning the Fred Biletnikoff Award. Boise ranked 77th in opposing QB rating, 103rd in completion % defense and 91st in yards allowed. On the flip side Oregon State's pass defense has been great all year coming up with a 115 QB rating allowed in road games. with 15 interceptions and Boise lost when they couldn't pass having a QB rating that was 61 points less in their losses. |
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12-23-13 | Ohio +14 v. East Carolina | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -106 | 63 h 12 m | Show |
Ohio +14.5 -115 4.5* NCAAF POD; Ohio +460 1* bonus
I don't see why Ohio can not win this game and the value is there at +460 for sure. Ohio is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Conference USA and they beat both North Texas and Marshall this year who were two of the best in the conference. East Carolina is now 6-18 ATS in their last 24 vs. a winning team and their 4 game winning streak that gave them momentum into the Marshall game that they lost 28-59 was agaainst the worst of the CUSA conference. The 4 wins came against a combined 7-41 team record from their opponents. East Carolina's offense was not as good as it was in years past being far too one dimensional ranking 102nd in rushing yards and 10th in passing and go up against Ohio's 29th ranked passing defense that held Rakeem Cato to 1 TD and 1 INT. What I like most about this game is East Carolina probably is not too pumped to be here. When you look at their year they almost went 3-0 against the ACC, but lost 10-15 against Virginia Tech. Playing Ohio in the Beef O Brady bowl is nothing glamorous when they thought they were headed to the CUSA Championship and then possibly the Liberty Bowl to face an SEC team. Now Ohio had a very up and down year, but they were consistent as far as what type of teams they struggled against. Their 5 losses came because their offense struggled. Ohio is a team that can be effective running the ball against good run defense, but when they can't pass they are in serious trouble. All 5 losses came against very good secondaries as Kent State was 27th vs. the pass, Bowling Green 4th, Buffalo 38th, Central Mich 20th, and Louisville 8th. East Carolina's pass defense was exposed down the stretch. They ranked 90th in passing yards allowed and played the following opponents ranking 86, 70, 35, 83, 108, 112, 117, 121, 77, 91, 19. Not a lot of capable passers and Ohio's 5th year senior Tyler Tettleton has a major chip on his shoulder and is a very good QB. |
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12-22-13 | New England Patriots v. Baltimore Ravens -2 | Top | 41-7 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 45 m | Show |
Ravens -2 5.5* NFL POD
Here come the Ravens again, and the Patriots come off a tough loss that was way over due in my opinion. The Patriots have been on a miracle run that finally ended, but almost didn't last week in Miami. I'll fade them here again, because they continue to beat bad teams and their injuries at this point in the year have just become too much. Nate Solder suffered another concussion last week and the offensive line has been in flux all year for these Pats. Tom Brady has done wonders and deserves a ton of credit. However, now he has to face a top 10 pass defense again and he's struggled big time against those. The Ravens are also 3rd in third down defense and 3rd in completion % this is a team that Brady won't be able to just dink and dunk down the field with ease. The Ravens are not afraid to get agressive and pressure these WR. For Baltimore it's been the Super Bowl hang over, but their offense all of a sudden is clicking. Dennis Pitta is a big reason for that and Joe Flacco continues to play his best when his team really needs him. I think this game will be another example of that as the Ravens need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. |
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12-22-13 | New Orleans Saints +3.5 v. Carolina Panthers | 13-17 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 30 m | Show | |
Saints +3.5 4.4* Early Bird Special
Here it is with everything on the line the Panthers get a chance for some sweet revenge against the Saints who dominated them just 2 weeks ago in the dome. The Saints have struggled out doors all year long and everyone thinks nothing should change, but the Panthers defense has really quietly digressed the last couple of weeks. They allowed the Jets to run for more than 150 yards a week ago and of course the Saints put up 31 on them. Before that the Panthers really did not play any explosive offenses and played mostly weak offenses so overall I do believe this defense is a bit over rated. One thing is for sure the Panthers defense has been unable to figure out Drew Brees. He keeps putting up monster numbers against them and now he can count on a defense that continues to play better than anyone thought. However, the Saints come off a loss to the Rams which I saw coming, but look for them to avoid losing two straight as they are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 following a SU loss. Drew Brees is great at bouncing back and I trust his experience along with the coaching staff's experience over Came Newton and their coaching staff. The Panthers are very talented, but they just are not at the level of a top tier team quite yet. CArolina played only 3 playoff teams all year - 49ers, Patriots, and Saints and they struggled against all 3. The road team is also 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings. Chiefs -0.5 / Bengals -2 5.5* Teaser These are two teams that have been dominant at home all year vs. two teams that have struggled on the road and we have motivation on the side of the home team with a lot to play for. For the Chiefs a spot as the #1 seed is still available all they have to do is win out and hope the Broncos slip up which is totally possible. For the Bengals they would like to get into the playoffs and host a game by winning their division which they can do by winning out. The Colts who visit the Chiefs really have no motivation and are a dome team playing out on the road in December. The Colts have their division wrapped up and are going to host a playoff game and they don't have a chance to increase their seed. It is very likely that the Colts will face these Chiefs so they may not try to do too much in this spot. The Vikings who go on the road to play the Bengals are also a dome team that has played well of late but is 0-6-1 on the road this year. The Chiefs have really opened it up offensively and I don't think the Vikings can keep this under a field goal. |
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12-21-13 | UL-Lafayette +3 v. Tulane | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 71 h 22 m | Show |
UL Lafayette +3 -115 5.5* NCAAF POD
I'm grabbing this now before it goes to a pk or even Lafayette as a favorite if you have +125 at your book play the money line. The spread is off in some places for the uncertainty of Terrance Broadway, but he took snaps on Wednesday and threw the ball 50 times before Mark Hudspeth closed practice. These are two local teams that will get to play in the New Orleans bowl and I'm backing the team that is making their third straight trip in Lafayette who have covered as 6 point favorites and 6 point under dogs winning both games. We get value here because Lafayette down the stretch struggled losing 2 games straight and I believe that if they wanted to they could have won those games. Mark Hudspeth had some interesting comments and I even faded this team at South Alabama in their last game. They had no incentive in that game other than an outright Sun Belt championship which is now shared, but they believe they won which is all that matters. They won @ Arkansas State 23-7 and Hudspeth is using that as motivation for this bowl game, because many are talking about how they struggled down the stretch, but again I'm not worried. I believe Lafayette is the far superior team here and should dominate against a Tulane team that has literally no offense. Tulane has been great on defense, but I think they will struggle against a top tier offense like Lafayette on turf with time to prepare. Lafayette is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 following a loss and 17-7 ATS in their last 24 on turf and their last 21 on turf have gone over 15-5-1. Tulane is 118th in offense, 106th in pass and 103rd in rushing and failed to crack 200 yards in 2 of their last 3 games. Lafayette has Alonzo Harris and Elijah McGuire out of the backfield who combined for over 1600 yards. Tulane will have their hands full and expect to see them pass to open up the run early in this game whether it's Broadway or Brooks Haack. Either way I expect to see both and I expect Lafayette to win. |
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12-21-13 | Buffalo v. San Diego State +1 | 24-49 | Win | 100 | 68 h 41 m | Show | |
[b]San Diego St +1 3.3* Showdown[/b]
Everyone is talking about the weather like San Diego State can't play in the cold and Buffalo can. However, diving into the stats more I see a Buffalo team that really struggled whenever they stepped up in competition. Their schedule was super easy as they faced the 5 worst teams in the MAC that combined for a 4-44 record while only facing 2 of the top 4 which they lost both in dominating fashion. Buffalo have some stars including Khalil Mack who is going to play at the next level, but San Diego State is just a better overall team. San Diego State is very good at stopping the run ranking 23rd in yards allowed and yards per carry. Buffalo feasted on bad run defenses. They beat Uconn ranked 22nd vs. the run, but lets be honest until the end of the year Uconn was the worst team in the league. The other 6 wins came against an average 104th ranked run defense. With Buffalo everything starts with being able to run the ball to set up the pass. They run the ball 56% of the time and they averaged 4.94 ypc in their wins and 1.99 in their losses. San Diego State can stop the run which transitions well in the cold weather. Buffalo on the other hand was only ranked 59th vs. the run and San Diego State has a quality back in Adam Muema. As good as Buffalo's defense was specifically in the red zone another look proves they just feasted on bad competition. Whenever they had to step up against a decent offense they were not able to perform and that's what San Diego State has going for them. The weather won't be too bad at 35 degrees and this will be on the blue turf a field San Diego State is very familiar with they actually shocked Boise here last year as a +16 under dog. San Diego State is a very good road team and their defense will benefit going up against a more traditional offense. Considering they play in the MAC where there are about 5 different offenses it gets very challenging for any team to play good defense, but San Diego State has. I'm taking the points with a team that is better on both sides of the ball. |
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12-21-13 | Colorado State v. Washington State -4 | 48-45 | Loss | -110 | 64 h 40 m | Show | |
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******FREE PICK - TAKE WASH ST -4 1.1* FREE PLAY ******* Most teams out of the Pac 12 would not be excited to be going to this bowl game, but Washington State has not been in a while and has to be pumped. Washington State is a bit under rated here as they have had arguably the toughest schedule playing 5 teams that finished in the top 25 in BCS including 4 in the top 14 which included Auburn who they had on the ropes to open the season. Washington State is going to make no secret about their goal which is passing the ball. Colorado State is just dreadful at stopping it ranked 99th in opp QB rating, 97th in completion % defense and 100th in yards/attempt. Colorado State's only shot is to force turnovers which they didn't do a good job of this year. On the flip side Colorado State on paper has just as much of an advantage with Kapri Bibbs rushing for 28 TD's and a 6.19 ypc going up against Washington State's 84th ranked defense. However, Colorado State only faced two top 75 teams lost both. The other 9 were ranked on average 105th vs. the run. Could it get any easier for a rushing offense? Washington State is also better facing 6 in the top 50 in rushing offense. With some time to prepare they should be able to stop the run with their aggressive front 7. Washington State also forces a ton of turnovers 27 on the season. |
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12-16-13 | Baltimore Ravens v. Detroit Lions -5.5 | Top | 18-16 | Loss | -103 | 2 h 24 m | Show |
[b]Lions -4.5 4.4* NFL POD / Lions -3 -120 1H 2* play[/b]
The Ravens have not played a winning team in over a month and are dead last in yards per play. Their offense has been very bad all year long and now they have to go on the road to play the Lions in an environment that is tough to play in. Detroit is 2nd in the league with 6.4 yards per play at home, and they are 7th overall. Stafford is due for a huge game after the Lions have slipped and lost 3 of 4. I expect him to bounce back with a huge game on Baltimore. Baltimore has allowed 105.8 QB rating in road games and they lack a corner that can cover any type of big name receiver like Calvin Johnson. The Lions also get Reggie Bush back this evening which should make for some more offense for a team that's anxious after playing in the snow bowl last week against Philadelphia. Baltimore's only chance is to get to the QB and pressure him which they have done a good job of, but Detroit is 2nd in fewest sacks allowed. The Lions will give Stafford time which is not going to be good news for the Ravens. |
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12-15-13 | Chicago Bears v. Cleveland Browns +1.5 | 38-31 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 21 m | Show | |
Browns +1.5 3.3* Early Bird Special
I think there is some value here on the Browns. The Browns have a top 10 defense and some would even say a top 5. I think they are a top 5 defense at home and they are very good against the pass. On offense they have weapons to score points as Josh Gordon has simply become one of the best in the game at WR. Cleveland had New England on the ropes just last week before Brady and the Patriots had the miracle come back. For the Bears they just won on Monday night, but now they are moving away from the hot hand in Josh McCown and giving the ball back to Jay Cutler. I think it is a mistake that they won't be able to recover from. Not to mention the Bears defense has been horrible especially vs. the run. The Browns have not been able to run all year, but they should get plenty of yards today on the ground which should only open up the passing game more. |
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12-15-13 | New England Patriots v. Miami Dolphins | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 3 h 49 m | Show |
[b]Dolphins -1 5.5* NFL POD[/b]
This is the exact time of year where playing Miami becomes a challenge from northern teams. Temperatures in the mid 80's and high humidity is something that you can't just get used to in a couple of days and because of that Miami will have an advantage. The Dolphins are also fighting for a playoff spot and traditionally have always played the Patriots tough. The Patriots have been pulling off insane victories and that simply can not continue especially on the road against a team that knows them as well as the Dolphins do. The Dolphins had the lead in New England at half time and were dominating the Patriots before Brady and co made half time adjustments and won. The Dolphins remember that and I think they will have some revenge here. They simply are playing much better football since the Johnathan Martin ordeal has been put to bed, winning 3 of their last 4 to get back into contention. |
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12-14-13 | Army v. Navy -12 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
[b]Navy -12 4.4* NCAAF POD / 2.75* Teaser Navy -6 & Over 45[/b]
Army has had a rough year and their QB Angel Santiago has not been effective with 3.4 ypc taking over for a 4 year starter in Trent Steelman who was in tears last year when he fumbled away Army's chance at the commander in chief trophy. Army lost to Air Force while Navy won so the trophy and the motivation is clearly on Navy's side. Even though Army will always be up for this game I think Navy is just so much better this year. Navy's offense has clicked with Keenan Reynolds back after he took the game's MVP a year ago as a freshmen. Reynolds has improved drastically nearly doubling his rushing yards and scoring 16 more TD's. He's led an offense that is converting on 3rd down 12% more of the time and in the red zone 14% more of the time. This offense also does not turn the ball over with 8 lost all year and have a +9 turnover margin. Army's defense has faced 4 teams that runt he ball significantly more than they pass and they allowed the following point totals, 34, 48, 25, and 42 with the following run defense stats, 5.79, 7.80, 5.71, and 7.46 to Air Force. Navy should have no problem running all over Army and putting up 30+ points in this game and I actually see them getting close to 40, because this game is going to be all about TD's especially in the snow. Army on the other side will go up against Navy's defense that has been inconsistent and I think far worse than what the stats say. However, Navy is better at making adjustments and they have more talent. Navy can stop the triple option better holding Air Force to 4.05 ypc. Although that game was at home. However, I do like the over in this game as well because of the weather, but also because Navy's defense is really weak against the run and they are as bad as they have ever been on 3rd down defense and in the red zone they are just awful at stopping teams. Both teams are going to go for it a ton on 4th down and we will see no field goal attempts in this one. navy has only faced two teams that run the ball first as their main strategy. We mentioned Air Force, but they also faced Toledo who averaged 6.98 ypc against them. Despite that fact they still allowed 5 teams to rush for more than 200 yards this year. Still at the end of the day I like them -12 because of what is on the line and because of how their offense played down the stretch along with Army's inability to stop anyone on defense. I mean Temple scored 33 on them. |
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12-08-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. San Francisco 49ers -2.5 | 17-19 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 6 m | Show | |
49ers -2.5 4.4* play
The Seahawks just locked up home field after a huge win on Monday night over the Saints and now they have to go on the road on short rest to play the 49ers who have regrouped with two straight dominating wins. The home team has dominated this series going 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings and I think it happens again. Colin Kaepernick has regrouped as well throwing 6 TD and 1 interception over his last 3 games and I think the fact that Seattle is vulnerable in run defense makes this a good match up for the 49ers. Gore/Hunter should be able to find room vs. a front that's 15th in run defense and 21st on the road. The 49ers are much healthier than the last time these two met and I think they should be able to get a win by a TD or more. They are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 and 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 home games. The Seahawks are also 1-6 SU & ATS following a Monday night game with a match up against a divisional opponent on the road. The 49ers are 10-2 ATS vs. team off a Monday night game. |