Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-03-16 | Missouri +10.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 11-26 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 24 m | Show |
Missouri +10.5 5.5% Play of the Day This is far too many points for a top 10 defense that returns 6 of their front 7 on defense. This is a defense that despite ranking 118th in time of possession was 3rd in yards per play allowed. Their defensive coordinator Bary Odom takes over as the head coach and there is a lot to be excited about with this team with a chance to pull off an upset in week 1. Obviously pre-season and media hype is typically about offense and that’s why I think the spread is where it is for this game. West Virginia typically has a good offense especially under Dana Holgorsen and many are calling for his best offense with an experienced offensive line and senior QB, but I’m not sold. You all are aware of my feelings on the Big 12, and the Mountaineers are just 9-9 the last two years in this conference now going up against the SEC’s top defense other than Alabama. West Virginia has struggled against top 40 defenses from a yards per play perspective going 1-9 over the last 3 years, 0-7 over the last two years. Missouri is just that, but what about their offense? Listen Missouri was awful on offense last year, and I expect them to score a TD more per game with Drew Lock coming back at QB. The 4 star QB put on 20 lbs, and gets two key transfers along with his top 2 targets at WR back. Alex Ross, a 4 star guy comes over to play RB from Oklahoma, and WR, Chris Black another 4 star guy comes over from Alabama. The offense will improve despite a rebuilt offensive line which can only be a good thing when you look at what they did a year ago. I just hope this Missouri team runs the ball more and they could win this game outright when you consider Josh Heupel taking over the offense, and West Virginia losing 7 starters on defense. |
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09-02-16 | Army +15 v. Temple | Top | 28-13 | Win | 100 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
Army +15 4.4% NCAAF Play of the Day This could be the best Army team since 1996, at least offensively. Jeff Monken played so many of his young recruits in previous years that this Army team has the most veterans in over 10 years. Army, showed a lot of potential down the stretch and we spoke about them a ton in our pre-season podcasts. They had 7 loses a year ago by 7 points or less so they are very well capable of staying in games. You could argue they should have won the Army/Navy game. On defense they return 9 starters, which is their most in 25 years. Temple on the other hand should be good again and their defense should be good, but this is a tough draw for week 1. Especially since this team did not face Navy last year, and they go from being ranked #9 in returning experience in 2015 to #66 in 2016. They lose their best defensive player in Matakevich, and they bring in a new offensive coordinator. I just don’t see a lot of points in this game, and the last time Temple faced a triple option team in 2014 they gave up 487 yards rushing. Both these teams were ranked at the bottom of the nation in pace. Army 128th, with Temple at 95. It will be hard for Temple to win this game going away and that’s what the oddsmakers are predicting. |
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09-01-16 | Indiana v. Florida International +9 | 34-13 | Loss | -106 | 59 h 14 m | Show | |
FIU +9 2.2% PLAY If you wait you may be able to catch Florida International at 10 points. During the pre-season I mentioned how much I liked Indiana on multiple podcasts, but I see tremendous value in backing FIU on Thursday night. For one this game is going to be played in Miami. The heat could play a factor, but this is a long trip for Indiana, and it's hard to see them being excited for this game. This is a team that struggled to beat Southern Illinois at home to open up last season and they only beat FIU 36-22 a year ago at home. There really is a lot to like about Indiana this year with 16 starters returning, but I think they will have value later in the year. There are question marks with three of their best players missing on offense. RB Jordan Howard, drafted by the Bears, Nate Sudfeld, drafted by the Redskins, and OT Jason Spriggs drafted by the Packers in the 2nd round all gone. They bring in a big juco transfer in Richard Lagow to be the QB, but this is his 4th school and conference for a reason.. I do think he will thrive in Kevin Wilson offense, but it's not going to happen from day 1. I don't think it's enough to overcome the yearly defense issues this team has to win by double digits on the road. FIU, had serious issues last year with injury luck. That has created depth for 2016 and I expect them to over achieve against the odds. I really like what Ron Turner has done here in his 4th year they have improved from 1 win, 4 wins, to 5 wins and are poised to make a bowl game. Unlike Indiana they have a QB starting for his third year in Alex McGough. The offense is likely to improve again as it did last year by 6 points per game. The defense I think will get back to 2014 when they were really good. Factor in that the defense lost 3 of their top 5 DB's, and 2 of their starting LB played a total of 5 games. The offense also had injury issues with 3 starting offensive linemen combined for 9 total starts. This year they have a strong group up front and should have some balance. The offense was a dink and dunk type last year and the year before they ran the ball a ton so I expect a combination of that in 2016. In 2014 they ran the ball 65% of time transitioning to 45% in 2015. To me that is signs of a good coach. They had to move towards the pass given their injury situation and what they had to work with. 2016, if this team can stay healthy will be the best yet under Turner. I expect them to be able to give Indiana a scare here. |
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08-26-16 | California v. Hawaii +20.5 | 51-31 | Win | 100 | 75 h 3 m | Show | |
Hawaii +20.5 2.2% PLAY This game is in Syndey Australia – Look aheads for California. Weather 55 degrees. I don’t think Hawaii is ever as bad, but it’s their scheduling that’s really challenging This team opened up and beat Colorado a year ago and after that they really struggled. The traveling takes it’s toll, but luckily we are handicapping game 1 of the season. California – 9 returning starters. They lose Jarred Goff, despite Sonny Dykes offense being very good typically and the fact that they bring in a capable QB replacement in Davis Webb. I think this is a team that has to run a little more, they lose their top 6 WR’s, they lose a few starters on the offensive line. They made some strides on the defensive side, but now just 5 returning starters and their Safety Drew tore his ACL in the spring. They lost their top 7 starters on defense. Vegas odds has them at 4.5 total wins, they are not high on this team, but that’s hidden with this point spread. Hawaii, on the other hand get a new coach in Nick Rolovich. At 36, Rolovich is one of FBS' youngest head coaches, but what he lacks in volume of experience, he makes up for with relevant experience. As a player, low-level assistant, and offensive coordinator, he's been exposed to what it takes to win at Hawaii. The last few years they have been bad, and this is a very difficult job when you look at the amount of travel and their opponents the first week of the season, but Hawaii has covered spreads vs. PAC 12 teams in the past going 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. PAC 12. They have 9 returning starters on the offense and it should improve with the new coaching while the defense also retaining a lot of their production from a year ago. I also like the fact that they were a bend but don’t break group. Meaning they did not give up a lot of big plays and seems to be what will happen again this year. X-factor’s… Hawaii has an excellent special teams unit is a strength led by the punter Rigoberto Sanchez who averaged 45 yards per punt. Overall they had a top 20 special teams unit a year ago and the same should be true in 2016. The other thing I look for improvement on is the turnover luck. They were -23 a year ago and that’s unlucky. Look for that to change as this team will clearly be more competitive. |
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02-07-16 | Panthers v. Broncos +5.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 30 h 26 m | Show |
Broncos +6 5.5* NFL POD; Broncos +197 1* bonus It seems like everyone is on the Panthers for this game, but late action coming in on the Broncos possibly as the line has moved down off the 6 to 5.5, but 6 is regularly available still and I’m taking the Broncos at +6. (Stay tuned for my bonus prop package which will be added at the end of this write up late Saturday early Sunday). Listen, the Panthers have looked unstoppable and have dones so against 2 of the better defenses in the NFC, but I still don’t think those defenses were as healthy, and they certainly are not nearly as good as this Denver group (more on that later). I actually backed the Panthers in the NFC Championship big, and it paid off, but the final score is misleading and it has everyone backing Cam Newton and the Panthers for this Super Bowl. I have heard 8 out of 10 people stating how the Panthers will win and dominate, but I’m not so sure for various reasons. The most common reason I hear is the “Panthers offense is unstoppable, and the Broncos offense is awful.” I also hear that Panthers defense is just as good as Denver. I disagree, and we have seen the Broncos move their offense against good defenses. 4 of their last 5 games they have scored 20+ points and have done so against top defenses. Let’s get into the misleading fact of the Denver offense and Carolina offense, because I think it’s critical to bring up. Let’s look at stats and strength of schedule. Denver comes in with the 24th ranked offense on paper form a yards per play perspective and they have done this with 2 QB’s and a very conservative approached offense. Along with that they have faced 11 of their 18 opponents ranked in the top 15 in yards per play defense. So their offense has had a tough challenge all year. When you look at Carolina in comparison it really does not compare. The Panthers have faced just 6 of their 18 opponents ranked in the top 15 in yards per play defense. Their division opponents not very good in Atlanta and New Orleans so that plays a big factor, but this team really hasn’t played a defense like Denver with the exception of Seattle. They scored 31 and 27 points on Seattle and that was impressive, but Denver is a better defense. They run a 3-4 with size as opposed to the 4-3, and Denver can get to the QB unlike Seattle this year. Denver ranks #1 in sack %. Before I get into the pass defense of the Denver Broncos we all know that stopping the Panthers is going to be about stopping the run. Denver ranks #1 in rushing yards per carry allowed. I mentioned in my Panthers write up last week the size of the inner linebackers for the Cardinals was going to be a huge issue as they average 226lbs, but Denver averages 249. Carolina has faced just 4 teams ranking in the top 10 in rushing yards per carry defense. Tampa, Seattle, Jacksonville, and Tennessee. In reality those defenses really don’t scare you with the exception of Seattle and not any of these teams ranked top 10 in all 4 key pass defense categories that I look at – opponent pass yards per completion, sack % of drop backs, opponent QB rating, and opponent QB completion %. Cam Newton only faced 2 teams this season ranked in the top 10 in passing defense completion %. I bring that up, because I don’t think Cam Newton is very accurate. I think he might have gotten lucky at late with some passes that were just beautifully thrown with poor foot work. I think the Denver Broncos can get him into a lot of those situations because of their pass rush. Carolina was 24th in completion % despite not playing any defenses that were very good at coverage and the Broncos rank 5th. So how are we getting 6 points with a defense that is this good, and nothing like the Panthers have ever seen this season? Lastly, I’ll mention special teams because you often see it play such a huge factor in the Super Bowl. Some will never take a team with the worse special teams in a match up, but according to football outsiders the Denver Broncos are 14th in special teams efficiency compared to the Panthers at 23rd. **PROP PLAYS** Danny Trevathan - Total Solo+Assisted Tackles - Must Play Take Over 7.5 -130 1.3* play to win 1 I really like Trevathan, who was one of the only guys that showed up in the Broncos last Super Bowl. Trevathan had 12 combined tackles in that game. I think the way the Panthers play fits right into Trevathan’s strengths here and I expect him to be all over the field especially since the Panthers like to run the ball a lot. Cam Newton - Total Rushing Yards on First Attempt - Must Play Under 5.5 yards -130 – 1.3* play to win 1 In just 4 games this year did Cam Newton have a rush over 5.5 yards as his first rush of the game. He now faces the Denver Broncos the best rushing defense in terms of yards per carry, and they are 3rd in explosive runs allowed. Panthers vs Broncos: Will Either Team Score in the First 6.5 Minutes of the Game2016-02-07 18:30 No -120 1.2* PLAY Neither of these two teams move quickly. They take a lot of time off per each drive. Denver is also 5th in points allowed in the first quarter. The first quarter is the lowest scoring quarter in Super Bowl History by a big margin which makes sense. Most teams start by trying to feel each other out. Vernon Davis Over 5.5 Receiving Yards +120 2* play Vernon Davis returns to the 49ers Stadium for the Super Bowl. He has gotten 0 targets over the last 4 games and Owen Daniels caught 2 TD’s in the last one, but I certainly feel Vernon Davis could be the X factor here. I like everything I have read about Davis in terms of what he is saying to the media. There have been stories that he has struggled to pick up the offense, but with 2 weeks to prepare Peyton Manning would be stupid not to get him into certain plays and the Panthers have shown vulnerabilities down field against teams like Seattle. I really like what I’m hearing from Davis and this is great value. Davis has said this week in the media, “I’m back in Santa Clara where I grew up from a little boy to a man,” Davis said this week of his NFL upbringing with the 49ers. “I’m back here. My house is 12 minutes away. It’s been a great experience and I look forward to the rest.” Newton's 1st pass will be incomplete +140 1.5* play I'm betting Newton's 1st pass will be incomplete. There is some good value in this play when you look because Cam Newton threw an incomplete pass in his first pass of the game in 8 of the 16 regular season games. That's despite playing just 4 teams in the top 10 in opponent completion %. His division was awful ranking 26th, 31st, and 32nd. Cam had a lot of games against some very bad teams in completion % defense and now he faces Denver who is ranked 5th with an elite secondary. I'm also going to take Came Newton Under 19.5 completions -115 1.15* playWhen you consider the fact that newton has completed more than 19.5 completion in just 7 out of the 18 games he's played this year and he goes up against the best defense then there is definite value on this play unless you think Denver is going to get up big in this game which is unlikely to happen with the Broncos offense. Emmanuel Sanders -22.5 yards vs. Ted Ginn 2.2* play I'm taking Sanders in this spot the guy has had 60+ yards receiving in 5 straight games while Ginn has really struggled with only 6 targets in his last 3 games combined. Corey Brown and Funchess are getting many more targets yet Ginn is known for his explosiveness, but the Broncos pass rush really takes that away. Ginn is hit or miss and I see him missing here today. He's had just 4 games of 80+ yards while Sanders has 9. Sanders also goes up against Cortland Finnegan who was retired in November, but came out of retirement due to the fact that Carolina lost 2 starting receivers. Sanders has been a Manning favorite. CJ Anderson to score a TD +160 1* play / Anderson to score Broncos 1st TD +400 0.5* play Anders has a rushing TD in 3 of his last 4 games and we all know Gary Kubiak's play calling ability is relentless with the running game and I see no reason why that won't change here. Carolina has allowed 4.3 ypc in their last 3 games and they are 24th in opponent rushing TD%. Manning to throw a passing TD first +130 1* play I see some good value on this play considering Manning goes up against the weaker secondary and has the better receiving weapons. I mentioned before the fact that Carolina's Cam Newton can be extremely inaccurate and if he's not throwing 20+ yard TD passes it's most likely the running game in the red zone. I see Manning being able to take advantage of some match ups early in this game before Carolina is able to make adjustments. Worth a look is Vernon Davis to score first TD at +4000. He's been a ghost, but still has the mismatch ability and we know Manning has liked the TE's, but tough to say if we see Davis in there in a crucial part of the game. |
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01-24-16 | Cardinals v. Panthers -3 | Top | 15-49 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
Panthers -3 5.5* NFL pod |
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01-24-16 | Patriots v. Broncos +3 | 18-20 | Win | 102 | 3 h 48 m | Show | |
Broncos -3.5 3.5* |
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01-17-16 | Seahawks v. Panthers -2 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 3 h 42 m | Show |
Panthers -2 5.5* NFL POD I am going with the Panthers in this spot for various reasons. First of all it's good to note that I have probably faded the Panthers more times this season only to be proven wrong. I did the same thing with Cam Newton when he was at Auburn only to come back and bet Auburn big late in that season to dominating wins. I think I have learned my lesson and the value is extraordinary here with the Panthers. I don't know any other situation where you'd have a 15-1 team going against an 11-6 team as an under dog. I get they are 2 point favorites, but in everyone's eyes the Panthers are under dogs here today. They have a lot to prove, and that same message is clear from Panther players this week in the media. They still have to play the game and while I'm not a huge fan of betting a team that won in the regular season, but the Panthers certainly gained a ton of confidence in Seattle when they had their 4th quarter come back off back to back 80 yard TD drives to win the game. TD drives is the key here, because Carolina is one of the best in the red zone at 72% TD rate at home. The other thing to note is Cam Newton threw 2 INT's in that game, and Seattle had Jimmy Graham who caught 8 receptions for 140 yards and they still lost. No Jimmy Graham this time, and the running game of Seattle is struggling so it's going to be on the shoulders of Russell Wilson. Let's also not discount the travel that Seattle has had to under take this last week going out to Minnesota, back to Seattle, and now back to Carolina to play a 1pm game. You could make an argument that Seattle has the better defense, but I would hesitate to agree. When you look at what they did down the stretch hey held Minnesota to 7 and 10 points, Baltimore without Flaco to 6, Cleveland to 13, and Arizona who had zero incentive to play to 6 points, and they gave up 23 points to the Rams offense at home in a loss. I think Seattle's defense is very good, but they haven't really faced many top offenses. They faced Arizona/Pittsburgh the two top YPP offenses and both scored over 30 points on them when it mattered. The Bengals were 9th and put up 27 on Seattle, and Carolina is 12th and put up 27 on the Seahawks. So the Seahawks defense played only 5 games against top 12 offenses in the league and when you take out Arizona in week 17 because they were seriously not interested in showing anything, they allowed an average of 30.75 points per game. Carolina's defense faced the following top 12 offenses: New Orleans - 22 points allowed, Tampa 23, Seattle 23, Washington 16, New Orleans 38, Atlanta 0, Giants 35, Atlanta 20, Tampa 10. To summarize they faced 9 teams in the top 12 in yards per play offense and allowed 20.78 points per game. The Panthers gave up some big numbers late and I feel those were due to injuries. I expect this team to be a lot healthier and it also pays to play at home where they are #1 in yards per point. I expect this game to be close in the first half with low scoring, but we have seen these defenses loosen up quite a bit in the 4th quarter of games. I would expect if this game is close at the half for the total to go over in the second half. Also something to look at as you feel this game out. |
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01-16-16 | Chiefs v. Patriots -4.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
Patriots -4.5 5.5* NCAAF POD I really like the Pats here in this spot given the fact that they are off the bye, getting healthier and off 2 straight losses. The Patriots will return some key guys for this one including LT Volmer who protects Brady’s blind side. I also think this team will be coached up to handle the Chiefs blitz schemes and will have a good game plan to move the ball and put points on the board. For the Chiefs they come in red hot, and off a 30-0 victory last week. Very impressive we cashed with the Chiefs as well but 8 of their 11 wins during this streak have been against the bottom teams in the league. The 3 wins were against teams that were arguably not at their best. Texans win was very easy to see when we saw Hoyer turning the ball over so many times. The Patriots have just 14 turnovers on the year the fewest among any team in the NFL. The Chiefs heavily rely on winning the turnover margin and are 0-4 ATS when they don’t this year. KC also beat Pittsburgh, but they beat them with Landry Jones at QB the 3rd string QB. They then also beat the Broncos, but again the Broncos had Osweiler making his first start in that game. Winning 11 games straight in the NFL is not easy by any stretch, but KC certainly had a lot of luck along the way. They also are more banged up here with 2 offensive lineman being out, and Jeremy Maclin being questionable. Maclin is their only deep threat, and with Kelce the only other threat in the passing game will make it very difficult for the Chiefs to move the ball. I’d be shocked if they got to 20 points, and I see the Patriots scoring 24-31 here. Also worth noting is what happened last year when these two met in KC where the Chiefs blew the Patriots out and everyone was saying the Patriots were done. I’m sure somehow that is motivating to someone with the Patriots and it will show up tomorrow. Cardinals -1 with Broncos -1 4.4* teaser+ Let’s start with Arizona over Green Bay. It’s clear to me that the Cardinals are the better team, but the Pack just came off an impressive win on the road over the Redskins. I don’t see it happening again this week. In order for this offense to have success hey must run the ball, and I can’t see them doing against the front 7 of the Cardinals which is a top 10 run defense unit allowing less than 4 yards per carry. The Redskins were ranked 30th against the run and it was a clear issue. I also don’t believe much has changed for the two teams since they last met and the Cardinals are actually a little healthier. Cards have been waiting on this game and I just think they are the better overall team. Denver Broncos – To me I saw that Peyton Manning is very close to 100% with the foot. He was able to take snaps under center and hand the ball off. Manning didn’t play for weeks and now he’s ready to go in the playoffs. I think that’s perfect, because the last few seasons he was fighting injuries in the playoffs and now he’s actually fresh. For the Steelers Antonio Brown is ruled out, and they do have other weapons, but I’m not sure Big Ben can throw down the field if he plays the entire game. His arm is not near 100%, and I think the Broncos actually knock him out of this game. The Broncos defense is the best in the league and they are at home with the extra week of rest. The road teams won last week, but I’m betting that the home teams are victorious this week. |
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01-11-16 | Alabama v. Clemson +7 | Top | 45-40 | Win | 100 | 132 h 23 m | Show |
Clemson +7 5.5* NCAAF POD The game between Michigan State and Alabama very well could have been 10-7 or even 0-0 at the half, but everything went Alabamas way at the end of the half with the interception with Michigan State trying to go in with an interception. That was a huge momentum change in this game with Alabama taking the ball to start the second half. They give up the TD to start the second half and go down 17-0, I think they came out with the running game was a little stupid for the Spartans offense that had so much success on their last drive before the half before throwing an interception. I thought at that point they needed to hand it over to cook and go no huddle, because it allowed Alabamas front to have issues and they had success moving the ball. But they were not agressive enough and the game got further away and it almost seemed like Michigan State was beaten in the first 5 minutes of the third quarter. During the game there are a few things I noted and compared with Clemson as reasons why I feel completely comfortable backing Clemson in this game. Michigan State receivers also had many drops. I like the fact that Deshaun Watson can spread the ball around more to his receivers finding the weakness in the defense, and he’ll have more balance with the running game that should keep Alabama’s defense on edge. Michigan State’s special teams. Nearly every game Alabama has made a play in their special teams to change the game, and again it happened in the third quarter against the Spartans on a punt return TD. Michigan State had one of the worst STE in the country at 108th, Clemson is at 89th not much better, but I don’t see Alabama again making those type of plays against Clemson. Clemson is very poor in kick off return coverage allowing 2 TD’s on the season, but that’s not at all where Alabama excels. In fact Alabama has only averaged 18.94 yards per kick off return. Alabama has 5 TD’s on punt returns this year and that’s where the danger is, but enter Clemson’s punt return coverage which is very good only allowing 15 returns on the season for 85 yards where Michigan State allowed well over 250 yards and 2 TD’s with an average of 12.81. I think Clemson can eliminate the special teams game for Alabama although they may sacrifice some field position. Michigan State found a weakness.Before the half Michigan State picked up the pace and let Connor Cook run the offense and it did not allow Alabama to substitute along their defensive line which is the reason they are so strong. Depth is probably Alabama’s biggest strength. Michigan State is not used to moving fast and of course they did not make that adjustment in the second half of this game. Clemson however will likely use that in my opinion and it will come a lot more natural to them with the 13th ranked pace in the country (Michigan State is 70th). With that fact comes time of possession and Michigan State defense was on the field way too much. I think Clemson will have an easier time despite being 13th in pace they are actually 23rd in ball control with 32:23 minutes of TOP, but 34:58 over their last 3 games. Alabama is 4th and this could be what decides this game overall, but I don’t see it being lopsided like it was in the Cotton Bowl. Michigan States offensive line struggled against a 4 man rush. Is Clemson’s offense line better or just as good? Well let’s look at the numbers. Clemson’s offensive line is ranked 8th in sack rate at 3.06% which is extremely impressive. Most systems with mobile QB’s have a very high sack rate, but they are top 10 in the country (Alabama is 42nd), Michigan State was 32nd. Clemson is also ranked very high in adjusted line yards at #9, 12th on standard downs, 27th on passing downs, 5th in power success and so on. To put those numbers in perspective Michigan State ranks 49th in adjusted line yards, 93rd on standard down, 65th on passing downs, and 14th in power success. Overall I would say this is the best offensive line Alabama’s defensive line has had to face from a numbers perspective and vice versa. Can Clemson stop the run like Michigan State? Spartans stopped the run of Henry holding him to under 100 yards just as I predicted, but Coker just ripped them up going 25-30 against the man defense. Clemson can absolutely do the same thing in the running game. Clemson was impressive in the game against Oklahoma despite losing their best DE in Shaq Lawson who I expect to play on Monday. Even if he doesn’t Clemson’s line held up well against Oklahoma who was a top 20 rushing offense. Clemson is ranked 25th in rushing defense, 13th in rushing S&P+ and has faced many top rushing programs including 6 in the top 30 (3 in the top 15). Florida State is the only team that got close to their season average and they did so on 1 long play from a more explosive RB in Cook. Clemson absolutely should be able to force this into a game where Coker beats them. Is Clemson secondary more talented? Do they give up the big plays like Michigan State struggled with. This could be the biggest question that decides this game, because Michigan State was very highly regarded, but their secondary obviously was not as good this year. Clemson ranks 2nd overall in completion % (Mich State 85th), 7th in opposing QB passer rating (Michigan State 68th), 15th in passing yards allowed per attempt (Michigan State 77th). Clemson has some big safeties and can spend a lot of time in the nickel without the threat of giving up big running plays due to the size of their safeties Jayron Kearse is 6’4 and 210lbs and Travis Blanks is a hybrid LB that is probably the X factor here who can cover Alabama’s TE. There is a reason why Clemson was #1 in opponent third down conversion % on the year. Can Clemson have a better day rushing the passer? There were times in the game where Michigan State was just a half second too slow. That may be where the difference of 4 star athletes will come in to play. Clemson has the 3rd ranked sack rate unit right behind Alabama. They sacked Oklahoma on 10.42% of their drop backs, and Alabama is 42nd in protecting their QB an obvious risk for them if they are going to come out throwing the ball. Overall I have complete faith in Brent Venables as a defensive coordinator getting Clemson into the right situations. He’s been doing this a long long time where Michigan State has two co-defensive coordinators something I would not like. Coker got way too comfortable against Michigan State and I don’t see that happening here against Clemson who have better athletes and a better secondary to frustrate this offense. What did I notice from Clemson’s game? Clemson clearly has a better running offense with the added dynamic of Watson, as their RB is very under rated running the option Watson and RB Wayne Gallman have both rushed for more than 1,000 yards. However, Watson is the best player on the field and the best QB Alabama has faced. Alabama’s defense has recruited to stop this type of QB, but they haven’t really seen anyone quite like Watson. Watson has really impressed me on the field and off the field and I think he’s just as good of a thrower. He’s made the occasional mistake including the dumb throw before the half against Oklahoma, but in big games this year his team has taken care of the ball. Notre Dame, Florida State, UNC, and Oklahoma they are +7 in TO margin and +1 or more in each of those games. Clemson can be positive in this next game and they will be national champions. Watson also just as good throwing the ball if not better than Cook. Clemson just seems like a team of destiny to me. Although it will not be easy. I think this is a close game no matter how you look at it. Clemson really could have named their score against Oklahoma. They had arguably the more impressive game against a better opponent. However, they still feel like they are being disrespected. This game is and should be a hell of a game, but my money is on Clemson to shock the nation. NOTE: If you can’t get this at +7 wait and monitor the line movements. Public money should push this back up to 7 at some point over the weekend or on Monday, but I would still be a buyer at +6.5. |
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01-09-16 | Chiefs -3 v. Texans | 30-0 | Win | 100 | 25 h 6 m | Show | |
Chiefs -3 3.3* play The Chiefs won their last 10 games, and deserve to be favorites here against the Texans where they will have the better defense, better QB, better coach. Texans will have the best player on the field in Watt, but that's not enough for me to feel comfortable betting the home dog here. The Chiefs seem on a mission to win a game for the first time in the playoffs for the first time since 1994 and Alex Smith and company have plenty of experience to get the job done. The Chiefs played the more challenging schedule facing off against 7 playoff teams while the Texans went 1-3 against the 4 they faced. The Texans had an easy stretch over their last 4 games and I think it will show against the Chiefs who rank pretty high statistically on both sides of the ball. The Chiefs also got it done on the road winning by an average of over 10 points per game so I am not afraid to lay these points. I also think it's worth noting that the Texans lost their Tackle Duane Brown in the last game of the season which is a huge loss for an already beat up offensive line. KC probably getting Justin Houston back which should make their pass rush very dangerous. |
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01-03-16 | Chargers +10 v. Broncos | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
Chargers +10 3.3* PLAY The Chargers are not a team that’s going to lay down for a division foe in week 17. Certainly not with a veteran QB like Rivers who is a true competitor. I like the way San Diego has played down the stretch and they have only lost 1 game on the road this entire season by more than 7 points. The Broncos just came off their huge game against the Bengals where they were in danger of missing the playoffs. I find it to be very challenging to bounce back this week and bring the same energy and intensity against a San Diego team that’s 4-11. I do think the Chargers lose this game, but it’s going to be ugly. Denver has not looked sharp on offense so laying any type of double digit spread is an absolute joke. Denver also has 1 less day to prepare for this game while the Chargers have 3 extra days having played on Christmas Eve while the Broncos played on Monday night. The Chargers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games on the road against a team with a winning home record. |
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01-03-16 | Rams v. 49ers +3 | 16-19 | Win | 105 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
49ers +3.5 3.3* play Low total here, and I’m going to go with the points here for the home dog especially when you consider the 49ers are coming off 3 straight loses and covers, and the Rams are off 3 straight wins and covers. The Rams are also 0-10 straight up their last 10 road games after playing the Seahawks. The Rams are not a very good road team going 2-5 away, and this offense is not very good averaging 15 points per game on the road. The 49ers are a decent team at home 3-4 and would like to finish the season at .500. |
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01-03-16 | Jaguars +6 v. Texans | 6-30 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 37 m | Show | |
Jaguars +6.5 3.3* PLAY I’m going to take the better QB in this match up (whether it’s Weeden or Hoyer) with Blake Bortles who is second in the league in passing TD’s. I also expect the Texans to play a little tight. They are likely in the playoffs no matter what and a win and they’re in. The Jaguars will be motivated against a division foe and finishing their season out their season in a competitive way. For a young team that’s what the Jaguars are looking to do. When you look at what the Jaguars have done the last few weeks they have lost 1 time by more than 6 points in the last 9 weeks. |
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01-03-16 | Lions -1.5 v. Bears | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 3 h 43 m | Show |
Detroit Lions -1 5.5* NFL POD The Lions have very quietly played the best football down the stretch going 5-2, and completely turning their season around after a 1-7 start. Matthew Stafford has been extremely impressive with a 16 to 2 TD/INT ratio since the Lions fired Joe Lombardi as offensive coordinator. Sometimes you see these moves that make absolutely no difference, but it was clear the offense was not responding to Lombardi. Even at 5-2 the Lions should have been 7-0 when you consider how they lost those two games. A hail mary by Rodgers, and I thought they had out played the Rams earlier this month as well. The Lions also likely playing for their head coach here. Jim Caldwell on the hot seat where John Fox is not and I think that’s a huge difference in this match up that gives the Lions the edge. One of the leaders in the Lions locker room made it very obvious that the Lions players want Caldwell back. Calvin Johnson is arguably the biggest name on the Lions and I expect that when he comes out and says something in the public that it’s pretty much the majority feeling of the team. Johnson stating – “Love him. Everybody in the locker room would probably say the same thing. He commands respect.. Guys gravitate towards him.” The Lions are just playing better right now, and the Bears do not own a home field advantage going 8-22-1 ATS at home since the start of the 2011 season and are 1-6 at home this season |
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01-02-16 | West Virginia -1 v. Arizona State | 43-42 | Push | 0 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
West Virginia -1 3.3* play The metrics love West Virginia and there has been a lot of sharp money coming in on them as well despite having to travel to Arizona to play Arizona State, 20 minutes away from their campus. West Virginia however enters with arguably the best defense that Arizona State has played all year and they do so without their offensive coordinator Mike Norvell who will be missed in this game. West Virginia held many teams on their schedule to their season lows in points including - Texas Tech, Iowa State, Kansas, Maryland, and Georgia Southern. This is a defense that can stop the pass and the run and will for Mike Berchovici to beat them, and I don't think it's possible. West Virginia has allowed an 86 QB rating in wins, and a 144 in losses. Berchovici is clearly the key here, but I'm betting West Virginia will force him into some mistakes. West Virginia is +11 in TO margin and forced 31 on the season. Arizona State can't win this game if it turns defensive as they are 1-4 when being held under 30 points. Offensively West Virginia will have some issues dealing with the Arizona State's front 7 which loves to sell out on the blitz, but it really hasn't helped them as they have allowed over 30 points on average. Their pass defense is pretty bad and with over a month to prepare I'm betting the offensive guru Dana Holgorsen can figure out a few different ways to attack through the air despite liking to run the ball more this year. At the end of the day West Virginia is the more balanced team, and I think the line at -2 is really suggesting so when you consider the oddsmakers loved the PAC 12 and it's evident in some of the lines they have released but in this game it's the opposite with two comparable teams playing. I also think it's interesting that West Virginia is a favorite here in what most people are calling a home game for Arizona State. It just doesn't all add up and for that reason I like West Virginia more. |
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01-02-16 | Kansas State +12.5 v. Arkansas | 23-45 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
Kansas State +13 3.3* play It's hard not to go with a Bill Snyder coached team as a double digit under dog. This spread is inflated for good reasons as this is one of Snyder's worst teams from a talent perspective, but it's still Bill Snyder and he will have his team prepared and ready to go there is no doubt in my mind. Brett Bielama has not proven to me that he can claim the same thing which is funny considering he comes from the Bill Snyder coaching tree. Every time Kansas State had extra time to prepare for a game they came out with one of their best performances. Their road game at Oklahoma State losing 34-36, and their home game against Baylor 24-31 were both very impressive. Kansas State will score some points in this game. There is no better team at getting the ball in hands of players and creating 1 on 1 tackles. They are #1 in solo tackles forced, and have led that category for 3 straight years. 90% of opponent tackles are solo, and that will create an opportunity against an Arkansas defense that's not very good at tackling. Arkansas defense relies heavily on multiple players to make a tackle. They are fully capable of doing that, but I just think Kansas State will stick around in this game. |
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01-02-16 | Penn State +6.5 v. Georgia | 17-24 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 3 m | Show | |
Penn State +6.5 2.2* play Both of these offenses have struggled throughout the season which is evident of this very low total here of 42.5. Points will be at a premium, and I'll take the under dog here with less turmoil. The Georgia Bulldogs have lost all of their coaches, they have had a ton of injuries, and I don't see them getting too excited to play in this bowl game. Penn State fired their OC which can only help the offense that was not very creative. Penn State has the better QB, arguably the better running back in Barkley and an elite pass rusher in Nassib. Point is the SEC has dominated the bowl season, but the Big 10 hasn't done that bad itself at 5-4 SU & ATS. Penn State has talent on both sides of the football and we have seen the Big 10 teams without talent gaps play well (Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin). |
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01-01-16 | Iowa +6 v. Stanford | 16-45 | Loss | -107 | 42 h 6 m | Show | |
Iowa +6.5 4.4* play Iowa +200 1* Stanford is not as good as they have been in years passed especially on the defensive side of the ball. In fact the entire PAC 12 was very poor on the defensive side of the ball. Many will point at the offenses being great and there are some good ones, but when we see what these teams have done out of conference I’m not at all impressed. Take Washington State for instance, an explosive offense only puts up 20 against a Miami defense that’s just awful, and they were shut out in the second half with a Miami team that was missing their head coach. In fact the PAC 12 is 5-1 in bowl games and even more reason for the public to hit the window and bet Stanford here, but only 2 of those games were against power 5 conference. The Miami game that Washington State did not play well in and then against the Big 10 Nebaska who were also 6.5 point under dogs and pulled the upset over UCLA on the west coast. Going over the conference vs. the Power 5 in the regular season and they went 4-4. Their wins were not impressive maybe Cal’s win at Texas by 1 impresses you, but I remember Texas missing an extra point. Maybe Utah’s win over Michigan impresses you, but that opened up the season and Michigan threw 3 interceptions. The other wins were over Virginia and Rutgers. The losses were against Michigan, Michigan State, Texas A&M, Northwestern. My perception is the PAC 12 is not better than the Big 10, SEC, or the Big 12. For Iowa they aren’t going to get a lot of credit here for going 12-0 against a “weak schedule,” but this team nearly upset Michigan State in the Big 10 and certainly out played them. I think if they didn’t get banged up with Conzeri missing time they would have won, because the defense really was gassed late in this game. Iowa should be able to move the ball in this game behind their elite offensive line that has sent more lineman to the NFL in the first round since 2004 than any other college football team. Yes even more than Stanford. Stanford’s defense was very bad this year ranking 80th vs. the run allowing 1.5 yards per carry more than last year. They ranked 12th, 10th, and 2nd in yards per play the last 3 years and this year they ranked 66th. It was a young group, but they never really got any better. Iowa is actually the best defense Stanford has played since Northwestern where they scored 6 points. Everyone thinks that was a fluke, but I’m not so sure and Iowa’s Desmond King can be the difference with 8 interceptions on the year. Last thought on this game, I will be taking Iowa on the money line. They will have a lot of fans going to this game even driving across the country for 25 hours. They are also ecstatic to be here for the first time since the 80’s. Some Iowa fans said they prefer the Rose Bowl over the college football playoff. It just goes to show you what it means to this Iowa team and fan base. Where you have Stanford who has been here before and probably a bit upset they didn’t get into the playoff. Last tip.. I will be waiting to play Iowa likely considering much of the public is on Stanford, and a lot of sharps are too. ****TEASER BONUS PLAY *** Tennessee -2 4.4* Teaser w/ Ole Miss I like the value we get here since this line has dropped. Typically I am big on the Big 10, and I was on Northwestern many times this year with a lot of success (Stanford comes to mind), but I just don’t think they have enough talent in this one to get it done in Florida. Tennessee is probably the best 8-4 team in the country, and easily could have gone undefeated. They had both Oklahoma and Alabama on the ropes late in the 4th quarter before losing close games. They absolutely collapsed at Florida and couldn’t rebound at home vs. a very good Arkansas team. This team should be plenty motivated to be playing the 13th ranked team in the country in the Outback Bowl, and dominated a Big 10 team last year went up against Iowa. Northwestern is pretty easy to figure out. They don’t beat themselves. They play great defense, and they run the ball, but this is a one dimensional team. When they are unable to run the ball they have issues and its one guy Tennessee will have to stop in Justin Jackson. Northwestern has 4.36 ypc in their wins and 1.75 in their losses. Tennessee has been very good against the run in some games holding Alabama to a season low – 42 carries for 117 yards, that was 2.79 yards per carry. On offense Tennessee has one of the most versatile and explosive running games and probably the best rushing attack that Northwestern has faced with Dobbs at QB, and Hurd and Kamara. This team ran against everyone and had 8 games with 200+ yards. They also had the highest average and 2nd most yards against Alabama’s defense. This offense faced 5 teams ranked in the top 25 in run defense. I expect them to win this game with their running game in the 4th quarter, but Dobbs is a very good QB throwing just 5 interceptions. He has healthier WR, and Northwestern lost Nick Van Hoose in practice which should make things more difficult for them. Tennessee also holds a significant edge in special teams ranking #2 in the country with arguably the most explosive units in all of football. These are many of the reasons why I can’t see the Vols losing this game, but it’s hard to bet 8 points of chalk It tells you a lot about this team the fact that they are ranked 23rd and Vegas respects them enough to open them as an 11.5 point favorite. Ole Miss -1 Teaser This is a bit of a mismatch even without Ole Miss best defensive player Rober Nkemdiche. Ole Miss defense is fast and very good, and they complement it very well with their balanced offense. Oklahoma State has allowed 200+ yards rushing in each of their last 3 games. Since Ole Miss got their best offensive lineman back in Laremy Tunsil they have been able to run the ball well with 4+ yards per carry in each of his games back and really made a significant difference to an offense that already was pretty dynamic passing the ball with Chad Kelly throwing to a deep and athletic receiving corp led by Laquan Tredwell who did not get to play in the bowl game a year ago. Speaking of the bowl game from last year Ole Miss lost 3-41 against TCU, a team that was out to make a statement. Ole Miss has mentioned that bowl game as motivation multiple times with the media and how it has motivated their 16 returning starters. Oklahoma State was a nice story, but when they had to step up in competition they really struggled. This is a one dimensional offense that really struggled against Baylor and Oklahoma down the stretch, and Ole Miss defense is a bit more talented than both of those teams. |
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01-01-16 | Florida +4 v. Michigan | Top | 7-41 | Loss | -105 | 39 h 26 m | Show |
Florida +4.5 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD This game is all about perception and the wrong team is favored here. Florida is playing in their home state in Orlando, and to me has all the advantages in a match up between two teams that mirror each other in a lot of ways. Both teams have excellent 1st year head coaches. Both teams have run first mentalities backed by superior defenses. On paper it appears Florida has the better defense and Michigan the better offense. Florida really struggled down the stretch and were ripped apart by the media, but they got healthier for the SEC Championship and hung with Alabama, while Michigan wasn’t even close against Ohio State exposing a lot of weaknesses in the Michigan defense. On paper both of these teams need to run the ball, and I think Florida will have a better opportunity here considering they have a mobile QB that can run the option in Treon Harris. This is a big step up in competition for Jake Rudock. In wins this year Michigan has averaged 4.57 yards per carry and in loses 2.24. Same goes for Florida with 3.74 and 2.15 in losses. The same goes on the defensive side of the ball for both teams. Michigan in wins held opponents to 3.21 ypc and 4.47 in their losses while Florida came in 2.91 ypc allowed in wins, and 4.64 in their losses which I have to mention were against the 3 best running backs in football in Delvin Cook, Leonard Fournette (both should have been Heisman candidates), and the Heisman winner Derrick Henry. Michigan does not have a guy like this and truly lacks any kind of explosive players. So much so that they had to bring defensive players on this side of the ball in Jabrill Peppers. Strength of schedule factors in here for both sides of the ball because Michigan is some what of a fake strong defense having faced just two teams ranked in the top 50 in yards per play and they gave up 41 and 42 to them while Florida faced 6 top 50 offenses and allowed 19.5 ppg. Florida truly has the most complete defense here. Their pass defense is clearly better with Vernon Hargreaves back there, and the 4th ranked sack % unit, but the run defense is what I’m impressed with as they faced 8 top 50 units and still finished as one of the best in the nation where Michigan’s defense faced just 3 in the top 50. Okay, so Michigan’s offense looks better on paper, and especially their running game, but have a look here as Florida faced 9 top 50 run defenses and averaged 22ppg against those. While Michigan faced only 7 and averaged 21 ppg against those. Florida had the better game against a similar strength of opponent in their last game as Florida gave Alabama a fight, but Michigan was dominated by their rival Ohio State. I also don’t trust the team that’s more rusty here and although I have a ton of respect for Jim Harbough this team is not ready to be a 4.5 point favorite against a defense like Florida. |
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12-31-15 | Michigan State +10 v. Alabama | 0-38 | Loss | -106 | 26 h 10 m | Show | |
[b]Michigan State +10 3.3* play[/b] This one was an obvious for me with so much line value. There is no doubt in my mind that Michigan State sports the better team, and the more gifted athletes. I mean they have 18 5* recruits to Michigan State's 1. However, I do think Michigan State has enjoyed this role, and these spots. They are 12-1 their last 13 as an under dog under D'antonio and that has to say something about coaching! For me though the SEC is down and getting too much praise right now. They went 2-2 in bowl games last year vs. the Big 10, and Alabama does not have the edge at QB in this match up. The fact of the matter is the SEC does not have many gifted QB's, and Alabama struggled vs. Joel Stave who completed 66.7% of his passes 2 TD's and 1 INT for 228 yards in the beginning of the season. I know that was a long time ago, but I think Michigan State can move the ball a bit here with Cook at QB. Alabama's offense is very predictable, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them come out passing which could be a mistake against this type of defense, and I don't like Coker here to get the job done to cover this spread. What impressed me the most is Michigan State played 3 very good running teams. They played Iowa ranked 36th in yards, 42nd in yards per carry, and held them to 2.17 ypc and 52 yards well below what any other team did. Michigan State faced Ohio State without Cook mind you and held that running game that ranked 10th in yards, and 8th in yards per carry (with a dual threat QB), and they held them to 2.97 ypc and 86 total yards, again well below what any other team was able to accomplish. Michigan State also played Oregon, a dynamic rushing attack ranked 5th in yards and yards per carry and again this team held them to 2.86 yards per carry and 123 yards well below what any other team was able to achieve. I think when you look at the fact that Auburn's defense held this Alabama offense in check most of the game you are starring right at value. I'm not so sure who is the better coach with extra time to prepare. |
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12-31-15 | Oklahoma v. Clemson +4 | Top | 17-37 | Win | 100 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
Clemson +4 5.5* NCAAF POD When is the last time you saw a #1 team getting 4 points like this on a neutral field. Oklahoma got a lot of credit down the stretch, and a lot of people are saying Clemson has not played anyone and again are getting zero respect which plays right into the hands of Dabo Sweeney's motivation tactics. What else does this team have to do? They beat Oklahoma in last year's bowl game with Deshaun Watson, beat Ohio State the year before and LSU the year before. Oklahoma has come up small in big games for quite a while going 2-5 in their last 7 BCS bowl games and 0-3 in national championships. It's also worth noting that Oklahoma faced the tough part of their schedule with a lot of luck. What I mean by that is they did not have to go up against the starting QB of any of the final 4 teams in Iowa State (almost lost), Baylor, TCU (almost lost), and Oklahoma State. This is also the team that got extremely lucky early in the season to beat Tennessee. I'm just not buying them as a 4 point favorite here and let's look at some more facts. Clemson is by far the best defense that Oklahoma has faced, they also have the best QB they have faced all year. When you consider Oklahoma struggled when they did face mobile QB's. They were lucky and missed a few good ones, but they faced Texas Heard who rushed for 115 rushing yards when the two faced off. Watson is far superior as poses a passing threat with a canon of an arm. Watson only got better as the season went along. The issue Oklahoma is going to have in this game and probably the reason I like them the most is Clemson's front 7 havoc rate. Clemson is 3rd in sack% and Oklahoma is 104th in sacked %. Baker Mayfield is used to running for his life but not against this caliber of a secondary that held opponents to 46.1 completion percentage and picked off opponents 14 times. Clemson had a net of 49 tackles for loss while Oklahoma came in at +5, but allowed 80 tackles for loss. A huge reason why they only converted 44% of their third downs. Clemson has held opponents to 24.87% conversions on third downs. If you were initially liking Oklahoma and you still are not sold, because of the suspensions announced today. Deon Cain was not a huge part of this offense. He had 11% of the receptions and another player will step up. What makes Watson so good is he is able to spread the ball around which makes this Oklahoma's most difficult assignment. I think Oklahoma also the more rustier team having not played in a championship game and I think that may be the reason they struggle in these late bowl games. Clemson also had some turnover issues -2 on the season while Oklahoma is at +10, but what really impressed me is they were positive in their three biggest games. When Clemson played Notre Dame they were +3, Florida State +2, and North Carolina +1. Turnovers were not an issue when Clemson knew they had to be at their best. I'll back Clemson here and I hope I have given you plenty of confidence to do so as well! |
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12-30-15 | Wisconsin +3.5 v. USC | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 29 h 17 m | Show | |
Wisconsin +3.5 3.3* play There are a few reasons why I like the Badgers in this game. For one they are catching a bunch of grief for having a weak schedule, but their loses are against Alabama, Iowa and Northwestern. They arguably could have won 2 of those 3 as they were –TO margin in all 3 games, the only 3 games they were negative in the TO margin all season long. USC’s defense is well below average with above average tendencies. I believe the extra time and the fact Wisconsin gets Corey Clement back for this game will give them all they need to win this game or at least stay within the 3 points. I also think Joel Stave could have a great game against USC who is ranked 96th in passing yards allowed. When you look at this match up I have to compare what the PAC 12 did this season vs. the Big 10. Big 10 seems like the better conference with a small sample size, but it all started with Ohio State dominating Oregon in the national championship game last year. This year Northwestern started the year beating up on Stanford, the PAC 12’s best team. Washington State barely got by Rutgers by 3. Michigan dominated Oregon State, Michigan State beat Oregon, and Michigan lost against Utah on the road by 7 because of 3 interceptions. So far this bowl season though Nebraska went out west and defeated UCLA. Making it 4-2 against the PAC 12 which is very impressive. Of course that’s not the only reason I’m picking Wisconsin here. USC has not played a defense even close to this good, and they don’t really have the explosive type of offense that’s going to give Wisconsin issues in my opinion. Wisconsin was a balanced defense good against the pass and the run, and although USC’s offense was very efficient they played against PAC12 defenses which were not very good this year even Stanford was 67th in yards per play allowed. |
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12-30-15 | NC State +6.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 28-51 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
NC State +6.5 4.4* NCAAF POD NC State has to be playing this bowl game with a chip on their shoulder. This is a very well coached team under Dave Doeren. Ironically they face off an SEC team they have a lot in common with. Both are nearly identical in pace, and yards per play on offense and defense. They both played identical games against their common opponent Troy and had very easy non-conference schedules. They both feature a senior QB with experience that does not turn the ball over. I did not want to make the assumption a lot of people do with the SEC over an ACC or other conference so I went back to look at recent history. Recent history suggests the value is considerably on NC State’s side when you consider these two teams are on the same level in their respective conferences, lost to teams they were supposed to and beat the teams they were supposed to. THE SEC is actually 7-9 since losing the national championship to the ACC in 2014 against the ACC. This year they went just 4-3, and what is shocking is how well the ACC played against some of the top tier teams. For instance Syracuse covered a large spread with ease over LSU, Kentucky lost by 14 to Louisville (both on the same level), Florida got blown out by Florida State (again on the same level), South Carolina nearly upset Clemson, but other than that the ACC played much better than the SEC for the second year in a row. I don’t think much separates these two teams and it should be the little things that matter. I’ve never been a big fan of Nick Mullen he’s 3-2 in bowl games, but has lost the last two against power 5 conferences. He lost to the ACC’s Georgia Tech by 14 as a 6 point favorite last year, and lost by 14 as a +1.5 point dog in 2013 to Northwestern. These teams are fairly similar in all statistical categories the major differences are Miss State’s not as balanced they throw the ball more than nearly everyone in the country while NC State is more balanced. I think it’s important to note the strength of NC State’s front line as they rank 18th in sack %, while Miss State ranks 82nd, and 72nd in protection. So that’s another key here, but turnover margin will likely decide this game and Miss State was -5, while NC State was +10 as they only had 11 turnovers on the season. Miss State really struggled with the running game, and with that they fumbled a lot. I trust Dave Doeren will have his team motivated and ready to play in their home state as he improves to 3-0 in bowl games. |
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12-29-15 | Baylor +3.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 49-38 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
Baylor +3.5 5.5* NCAAF POD This has extreme value in my book for many reasons. Baylor’s experienced defense will be the difference in this game in my opinion. Especially since they will be without their top running back, and receiver, but do get their third string QB back in Chris Johnson. I really don’t feel like Johnson got a real opportunity to showcase his talent, and I think that is a huge reason we are getting value here. Johnson is an athletic freak that I think will really hurt this North Carolina defense that gave up over 600 yards to Clemson. Baylor is also a run first team and has been the last few years so I don’t think these injuries impact them as much as the line movement suggests. All the public really remembers is this team struggling down the stretch, but they won many games with this defense and are ranked 30th in yards per play. North Carolina’s offense has only faced 2 top 40 unit in yards per play defense, and just 1 team in top 40 yards per play offense, but in this bowl game they will face a team that is top 30 in both. Gene Chizik is getting all kinds of credit for improving a defense that gave up 16.4 points per game more in 2014, but the fact of the matter is strength of schedule. In 2014, North Carolina played a whopping total of 8 teams in the top 50 in offense, and this year they played just 2 with a lot of bad offenses along the way. The last thing I will mention is the fact that these two conferences are pretty even. The Big 12 is 12-11 vs. the ACC in bowl games with an average differential of 0.3 ppg. I believe the ACC defenses have made this UNC offense look better than they really are. The ACC is 1-3 ATS in bowl games in 2015, and featured 3 of the better defenses in the conference in Duke, Pitt, and Virginia Tech and all 3 gave up a ton of points 41, 44, and 52. North Carolina had huge issues at the end of the year stopping the run allowing 300+ yards in their last 2 games and I think that’s the strategy Baylor takes in this game as the defense also steps up. This is an experienced unit that returned 9 of 11 starters. |
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12-29-15 | Air Force +7 v. California | 36-55 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 48 m | Show | |
Air Force +7 2.2* play This is an interesting match up of contrasting styles with Airforce top 5 in running play %, and Cal top 5 in passing play %. The Mountain West has done great this bowl game going 5-1 ATS, but so has the PAC 12 at 4-1 ATS. Actually the Mountain West is 10-9 head to head with the PAC 12 in bowl games, but went 2-10 this season. However, I still think this match up is in favor of Air Force. The last time we had a similar match up with Georgia Southern vs. Bowling Green, in styles of play and I went with the running team and I’m doing the same here. I have much more confidence in Air Force’s having success running the ball and controlling this game than I do in California lighting up the scoreboard and making stops. Air Force has ran for more than 200 yards in every single game this season except Army, who defends the triple option very well (ask Keenan Reynolds). California has given up 185+ yards rushing 7 times and is 3-4 in those games. They have had major issues against QB’s that can run, and I just don’t see how they can keep Air Force out of the end zone. With all of that said Jared Goff is probably heading to the NFL, Sony Dykes interviewed for a few different jobs so I don’t really even know that Cal is truly focused for this game. Air Force’s defense is good enough to get stops and will be aggressive and take chances. This is a team that was competitive against Michigan State on the road. They outgained Michigan State by over 100 yards in that game, but had 3 turnovers. I see Air Force rushing for over 300 yards in this game and if they can avoid the turnovers they should get a win. |
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12-28-15 | Central Michigan v. Minnesota -6 | 14-21 | Win | 100 | 2 h 21 m | Show | |
Minnesota -6 -102 3.5* play I like the Gophers in this spot against the MAC. Since 2010 the Big Ten has gone 60-13 vs. the MAC including 10-2 this year with an average margin of victory of 18. There a few reasons to like Minnesota in this spot who is getting into a bowl game at 5-7 for Academic reasons. We backed the last 5-7 bowl team and came up with a big win on Nebraska. I think this Minnesota team had a very difficult schedule and a lot of their stats suffered. Despite all of that this is a team that nearly knocked of Michigan, Ohio State and Iowa. Central Michigan had a tough schedule as well, but Minnesota also played TCU in non-conference play and had a ton of injuries and lost their head coach midway through the season. Speaking of injuries Minnesota was devastated with them along the offensive line, defensive line and secondary, but ST's STeven Richardson and Scott Ekpe have been practicing, and several other key players are back in the mix. I also don't like this match up for the Chippewas who rely so heavily on the passing game behind the arm of Cooper Rush. Rush had a fabulous year with 25 TD's to 10 interceptions with 3703 passing yards, but this is the best pass defense he will face all season. Minnesota ranks 14th in yards allowed and have a lock down CB in Eric Murray who should be able to take away half the field. I'd be surprised if the Chippewas score more than 21 points in this game, and I think they will need to. Minnesota can run the ball when they face a team that gives up the run. Central Michigan 1-5 when allowing over 4 yards per carry. Minnesota should be able to do that with a mobile QB, and I love the fact that this Gophers team is more balanced because they faced so many top run defensive teams this year. They went 5-1 against teams ranked outside of the top 50 in run defense losing to only TCU who is ranked 53rd. |
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12-28-15 | Pittsburgh +3 v. Navy | 28-44 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 6 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh +3 3.3* play I'm going to take the Panthers here despite it being a road game as Navy will get to play in their home stadium. Pitt will still have plenty fans on hand maybe 1/3 of the stadium will be Pitt fans, but the bigger reason I'm going with Pitt is they are excited to be here playing against a ranked opponent in Navy. Both teams will run the ball first, and play defense, and I like Pitt's ability to make key stops in the red zone and on third downs where they have enjoyed much more success than Navy against a more challenging schedule. Pitt has held opponents to 36.8% conversions on third downs, 50% in the red zone for a TD% compared to Navy 46.67%, and 63%. The overall size of Pitt's fronts will eventually be the advantage late in this game. The American Athletic Conference is now 0-4 in bowl games and not looking at tough as we thought. Pittsburgh has plenty of time to prepare for the triple option, and I love that this team gave up 376 yards in a winning effort against Georgia Tech on normal rest. This keeps these defensive players motivated with film to study before facing Navy's threat which does not have good of athletes. If you watched Navy/Army you could clearly see that. Many of the Pitt players remember a loss in 2013 to Navy and have revenge on their mind including Pitt's most explosive offensive weapon in Tyler Boyd. The extra prep will also allow Pitt to find new creative ways to get their best players the ball in space, and I think this game will be close throughout, but the advantages that Pitt has in some of the key stats will be the difference. Pitt also ranked 19th in special teams efficiency while Navy is 69th. |
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12-27-15 | Bears v. Bucs -3 | 26-21 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 36 m | Show | |
Tampa -3 3.3* play I like the Bucs here to bounce back, they are a young team with a lot to play for. This is a team that really wants to end the year on a high note. I have a lot of respect for what the Bears have done this year with Cutler and Fox as the new coach, but heading to Tampa is not easy this time of year. Weather calls for temperatures in the upper 80’s and that should benefit the Buccaneers. The Bears are also very weak against the run which is the strength of this Bucs team. The Bucs are also 9-2 ATS in their last 11 following an ATS loss, 4-1 ATS after their last 5 following a SU loss, and are on revenge here. |
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12-27-15 | Panthers v. Falcons +7 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
Falcons +7 -120 3* / +260 1* If there was ever a spot for a team to get up 1 last time in a game it’s this one for the Falcons. The Panthers are also very banged up from last week. 13-0 teams or better have not done well ATS going back 1980 are 1-12 ATS and 0-11 when laying 4 or more points. Falcons were shutout in embarrassing fashion by Carolina just a couple of weeks ago and you bet this Atlanta team remembers. This Carolina defense is beatable, and I think Atlanta will have a good game and be in a position to win and give Carolina their first loss. In fact I’m going to wager a bit on the money line because I think it’s some good value. |
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12-27-15 | Browns +11.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
Browns +11.5 5.5* NFL POD 1-7 ATS their last 8, Chiefs 7-1 ATS their last 8, but I’m going to back the Browns here. Manziel looked good against Seattle despite his team losing 30-13. This is the second week in a row that the Browns are double digit dogs, and the second week in a row that the Chiefs are double digit favorites. The Chiefs were 10.5 point favorites against San Diego and nearly got taken to OT as their offense scored just 10 points. This is a conservative coaching staff and again will be in a MUST win game and we should expect nothing more than a conservative approach. I expect the Browns to play hard, and I don’t think they have mailed it in. Manziel wants to prove something down the stretch, and I think this is far too many points not to get excited about. |
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12-26-15 | Nebraska +6.5 v. UCLA | Top | 37-29 | Win | 100 | 59 h 59 m | Show |
Nebraska +6.5 5.5* NCAAF POD I’m not sure UCLA can get up for playing a team that’s 5-7. Nebraska however, had 5 losses by 5 points or fewer. Nebraska definitely has a lot of motivation in this game when you consider they are 1 of 3 teams with 5 wins. They also lost to UCLA the last two years, and this is a very different Nebraska team compared to the team UCLA played the last few years. Nebraska will chuck the ball around the field, and they can stop the run. Nebraska is 8th in the nation in stopping the run, and that’s an important factor in this game as UCLA will rely heavily on their running game. They average over 200 yards per game in their 8 wins, but under 150 in their losses. Nebraska has not allowed a single opponent over 200 yards rushing this season and just 3 over 150. I’m expecting that stat to be a big reason why this is a close game and with nearly a TD to play with the value is on Nebraska. I mentioned motivation for Nebraska who has several players quoting how great of an opportunity this game is. Offensive lineman Ryne Reeves said, “I think it’s a great opportunity for us to show that we’re a better team than what our record says.” I also love the fact that they lost twice to UCLA in recent memory and that their head coach Mike Riley beat Jim Mora when he was at Oregon State. The biggest key in this game though is Tommy Armstrong. Nebraska will lose if we get the very bad Tommy, but they can still cover this spread with him throwing a couple of picks, but I think what he will bring to the table is his mobility in this game. Armstrong averages over 5 yards per carry when he is not sacked and the UCLA defense has had plenty of issues with the few mobile QB’s they have faced this year. Jim Mora’s teams have had so many issues against athletic QB’s since he’s been here and Armstrong is arguably the best one he will face this year. I think Armstrong will be the difference in this game, this team is better in the red zone because of him converting TD’s at a 71% clip compared to UCLA’s average 61%, they defend on third downs and in the red zone. Nebraska’s biggest weakness is their pass defense, but they are more of a bend but don’t break unit, and against Josh Rosen I think they can force him into mistakes. Nebraska is far better in special teams ranked 28th in efficiency to UCLA’s 71st, and their defense can create more negative plays. I think the Pac 12 is down a bit this year, and there is not much that separates them from the Big 10 when you look at head to heads this year I would say the Big 10 is the better conference. Pac 12 went 2-3 this season vs. the Big 10, and were embarrassed in the national championship game last year as Oregon lost to Ohio State. Their only wins were questionable with Washington State barely getting by Rutgers 37-34, and Michigan losing at Utah to open the season because of a ton of turnovers. Otherwise Northwestern beat Stanford by 10 the PAC 12’s best team, and Michigan State handled Oregon while Michigan also handled Oregon State. |
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12-26-15 | Miami (Fla) v. Washington State -2.5 | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 52 h 13 m | Show | |
Washington State -2.5 3.3* play Miami is on a roll winning 4 of their last 5 games entering this bowl game which will be played a lot closer to home than Washington State. Washington State comes into this game off a loss in the Apple Cup but they were without their best player Luke Falk, at QB who was out with a concussion, but will be back for this game. Really for me I see more to play for from the Cougars who will be playing in their first bowl game in 12 years. This was a very good road team, and the PAC 12 has flat out dominated the ACC going 9-1 in bowl games since 2007. Since 2000 they have gone 21-8 in regular season + bowl games. I’m not that high on the PAC 12 myself especially this season, but they are a better overall conference going 20-18 the last 5 years in bowl games + 2-0 this year compared to the ACC which is just 19-26. Okay, so history is sort of irrelevant as these two teams still have to line up and play football. Washington State will throw the ball 75% of the time, but when they can run the ball 4 yards or more they are 4-0. Miami has all sorts of troubles stopping the run and I think that happens as Washington State will control this game chipping away. Miami is a defense that does not give up big plays, but will give up 5 yards anytime you want it and I don’t see them coming up with a different game plan with an interim coach. These two teams are actually quite similar in what they do well and what they don’t do well and for Miami it comes down to the QB, but I don’t see him having that great of a game against a Washington State defense that is much improved allowing 10 fewer points per game than the year before. Their pass defense has only allowed 11 TD’s this year and they rank top 40 in havoc rate. Kaya has been very good at not turning the ball over, but they are just 36% on third down, and 50% TD’s in the red zone where this game will likely be decided. Typically I’d be concerned with TO margin here, but Miami is ranked 89th in sack % which means good things for this Cougars offense. Miami played similar type of team in Cinci as far as passing attempts and lost by 11. I think the Cougars get a big win for Mike Leach and their running game behind Gerrad Wicks, and Jamal Morron might be the reason why. |
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12-24-15 | Cincinnati v. San Diego State -1.5 | Top | 7-42 | Win | 100 | 46 h 56 m | Show |
San Diego State -1.5 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD I’ll take the Aztecs in this game who do not have to travel nearly as far as Cincinnati for the Hawaii Bowl. I also think the Bearcats programs is in shamble’s a bit, and having to travel to Hawaii with a young team is not going to help. For San Diego State they have already made this trip this year and did so in great fashion. I have been impressed by Rocky Long’s quotes the week they went to Hawaii and how he had his team prepared and I expect nothing different here. It also does not hurt that this matchup is something I also love. First of all both starting QB’s are out for this game, and Cinci who relies much more on their QB are going to have a very tough time against San Diego State’s defense that runs a unique 3-3-5 defense that I’m not sure Hayden Moore has seen much of. Moore also will take a lot of chance and very prone to turning the ball over. In fact Cinci is one of the worst teams in TO margin ranking 124th, while San Diego State come in ranked 1st overall. It’s a huge advantage for San Diego State that will most likely show up in the game. Cinci also going to have a hard time running the ball against Rocky Long’s bunch as they ranked 8th in run defense. Cincinnati is 0-5 losing by an average margin of 14 when they don’t rush for over 150 yards. So I mentioned earlier that Cinci is in shambles. There are all kinds of rumors about Tuberville retiring, and their OC moving on to Kentucky. Along with that is the fact that their starting QB Gunner Kiel, a 5 star leader on this team wont’ be traveling due to personal reasons that have been announced as a pain killer addiction. Really sad story, but this team is 0-5 vs. the top 50 in the nation. San Diego State, a team that will rely on the run heavily and won’t be hurt by the fact they will be without their QB as much. Donnell Pumphrey, a dynamic back should be the MVP of this game or I’ll be shocked as the Bearcats have allowed over 5 yards per carry on the season. I also like the fact that San Diego State is less penalized on the season, ranked 6th in special teams (Cinci – 74th), +22 in tackles for loss compared to -12, and +14 in sacks compared to -10 for the Bearcats. This could be another blow out for the Hawaii Bowl. |
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12-23-15 | Georgia Southern +7.5 v. Bowling Green | Top | 58-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
Georgia Southern +7.5 4.4* NCAAF POD This is Georgia Southern’s first bowl game and while they have a tough task against Bowling Green’s up tempo high flying offense I think they have the right match up here. Georgia Southern is the #1 rushing offense in the nation, and 10th in time of possession. Bowling Green has struggled against all 4 top 50 rushing offenses they have faced giving up TD’s, and a lot of rushing yards while going 2-2 in those games. I think there is a lot more for Georgia Southern to play for in their first bowl game. Georgia Southern won the Sun Belt last year, but were held out of a bowl at 9-3 because it was their first year as an FBS team. When you look at what this team has done over the last 3 years you should be pretty impressed. In 2013 they beat the Florida Gators, in 2014, they lost to Georgia Tech and NC State by a combined 5 points, and as I mentioned won the Sun Belt. This year they go 8-4, but crush the MAC’s own Western Michigan 43-17, and they lose in OT to Georgia. They come off a loss to Georgia State and that’s why they are getting no respect in this game, but there is something to say about a triple option team and Georgia Southern runs it arguably better than anyone. There is a good reason why this team did well in their first year in the Sun Belt, just like Navy did with their triple option in their first year in the AAC. I don’t see Bowling Green being able to prepare for this triple option. There is absolutely no history facing the triple option, and Bowling Green is without their head coach Dino Babers who head to Syracuse. This team is not content with the MAC Championship, but I don’t see how well they will be prepared for the triple option especially when you consider their defensive coordinator will be the interim coach here and he too is going to Syracuse. I guess I should have a bit more respect for a coach that sticks around for the kids, but I don’t see him giving it 100% in preparation. There are a few other things to like about Georgia Southern as they are very opportunistic grabbing 15 interceptions, and they have a significant advantage in penalties nearly penalized 4 fewer times and special teams ranking 47th while Bowling Green ranks 119th in special teams efficiency. Both teams are really good at what they do best which is offense. Bowling Green is more balanced, but likes to do it more with the pass while Georgia Southern will run it down your throat and I feel like they can really take Bowling Green out of their rhythm here considering they dominated with over 33 minutes in time possession compared to under 30 for Bowling Green who ranked 92nd in TOP. |
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12-22-15 | Toledo v. Temple -2 | 32-17 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 48 m | Show | |
Temple -2 3.3* play I like Temple in this game, because of the coaching situation as Matt Rhule signs a 6 year contract, and all of his quotes lead me to believe that this game is huge for this program. A win and it’s a top 25 finish for Temple and an 11 win season which could be huge. For Toledo they have a new coach here after Matt Campbell heads to Iowa State, and when you look at this team’s resume they really were fortunate earlier in the season, and just not that impressive late. Temple has 3 losses and each loss came when the opposing QB ran the ball. Greg Ward ran for 148 yards, Quinton Flowers for 90, and Deshaun Kizer for 143. Phillip Ely is not a running QB for Toledo, and I think Temple is going to be able to stop this Toledo rushing offense which really puts them in a difficult spot when that happens. Toledo will have their hands full on defense facing Jahad Thomas who will be healthier than he’s been in a while and P.J. Walker has proven that he continues to improve as the season has gone along. There is just too much motivation for Temple and they have played in many big games and have played well. Toledo never seems to be able to get over the hump. I like the edge Temple has in the red zone along with what they have done ranking 26th in special teams efficiency to Toledo’s 82nd ranking and they are far less penalized as well. This is a big game for Rhule and Temple who have a lot of recruits in Florida. We will see how it turns out. |
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12-20-15 | Broncos +7 v. Steelers | 27-34 | Push | 0 | 29 h 35 m | Show | |
Denver +7 4* bonus play The Broncos have tremendous value here with the #1 overall defense that is starting to get healthy. The Pittsburgh Steelers are 0-3 against teams ranked in the top 6 in yards per play allowed this season. This game means a lot to Denver who is trying to stay pace with Cinci and New England for a first round bye. We get your classic sell high buy low situation here as the Broncos lost to the Oakland Raiders a week ago while the Steelers dominated the Bengals on the road. |
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12-20-15 | Panthers v. Giants +4 | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 25 h 11 m | Show |
Giants +4 5.5* NFL POD I like the Giants who need to win every game, the Carolina Panthers have already clinched a playoff bye and while they should be motivated to play for the undefeated season, but they are banged up a bit right now. The Giants have 7 loses this year and 5 have been by 4 points or less and when you look at who the Panthers on the road it’s just 1 potential playoff team in the Seahawks so they have really had an easy run on the road and I see their perfect season coming to an end against the Giants on Sunday who are the perfect team to give them trouble. |
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12-19-15 | Arkansas State v. Louisiana Tech -1 | Top | 28-47 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
L.A. Tech -1 5.5* NCAAF POD There is no question that Tech comes out of the better conference in C-USA vs. the Sunbelt. Conference USA was 4-1 in bowl games last year and 15-6 over the last 4 bowl seasons while the Sun Belt went 1-2 last year and 6-6 over the last 4 years. There is no question Tech comes from the better conference that regularly plays more power 5 opponents (25 this season). Tech also comes off two very ugly games where they did not come close to covering the spread, missing by 23 and 39 points. The market has adjusted quite a bit for this show down in New Orleans. Arkansas State ran the table in the Sun Belt and to me that just shows you how bad this conference has been which has led to some inflated numbers for Arkansas State who likes to run the ball 61% of the time with Gordon at RB, and Fredi Knighten at QB. In wins they rush for a 5.65 yards per carry while losses they average just 2.41. This team has played some pretty terrible run defenses along the way including 4 that rank at the bottom ranking 120th, 121st, 126th, and 127th. Today they face LA Tech who is built to stop the run ranking 12th in the country led by future NFL DT – Vernon Butler. In Arkansas State’s 3 games against run stopping units they lost, and LA Tech’s 13th ranking in yds per carry allowed should be enough to get the job done. L.A. Tech also has an explosive offense that will key on not turning the ball over. They lost big in their division championship against Southern Miss by turning the ball over 7 times. That’s especially important against Arkansas State who has lived on the turnover. If L.A. Tech protects the ball they win this game going away by double digits. I’m betting they will when you consider 33% of their seasons 21 turnovers came in one game. Jeff Driskel has been great all year, and Kenneth Dixon is one of the best RB’s in the country that nobody knows about with 83 career rushing TD’s. This team is excited to be here and should win this game. |
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12-19-15 | Jets -3 v. Cowboys | 19-16 | Push | 0 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
[b]Jets -3 3.3* play [/b] Many are not buying into this Jets team right now, but this is a scary team that's starting to peak at the right time. The Jets defense is very good vs. the run which makes this a tough game for Dallas who likes to go away from their strengths any how. I wouldn't be surprised to see this team try to run the ball first, just because there has been a lot of criticism lately. That will result in some struggling, and putting the Cowboys in 3rd and long against this Jets secondary is not a good thing. Right now the Jets are a top 10 offense and can hurt you on the ground and through the air to go along with that strong defense anchored by a healthy front line and you have a very dangerous team that's playing it's best football and knows it can't afford a slip up the week before the Patriots game. |
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12-19-15 | Ohio +7.5 v. Appalachian State | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
Ohio +7.5 2.2* play Ohio had a tougher schedule this season and I still don’t trust the Sun Belt to produce crazy results during bowl season especially at more than a TD favorite for a first timer like App State. The MAC typically gets tougher match ups in these bowl games and has gone 8-14 the last 4 years which means they are regularly sending 5 teams to a bowl game where the Sun Belt is only sending 3. App State played two team with a pulse on their schedule in Clemson and Arkansas State and lost to both. Ohio has covered 6 of their last 7 games against the Sun Belt, and App State has lost their last 2 against the MAC. Frank Solich is a very good coach and will have his team well prepared for this game particularly the run defense that has been inconsistent. Ohio played their best football down the stretch winning their last 3 games including a road victory over Northern Illinois. I expect them to be in this game late with just 14 turnovers on the season, a Sr. QB in Vick leading them and a lot of excitement for being back in a bowl game I don’t see how they don’t give it everything they have. |
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12-13-15 | Cowboys +7 v. Packers | 7-28 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
Cowboys +7 -120 1.1* Cowboys front 7 is healthy and one of the better front lines on defense. Packers have the long week, the Cowboys on the short week, but that is adjusted in this line for sure as the teams are 13-11 ATS on short rest. Green Bay’s offense is clearly not the same right now. Packers are having issues on the offensive line that should keep this game very close. The Packers were very fortunate to beat Detroit in their last game and if you were a square that Thursday night you benefited by Aaron Rodgers hail mary which allowed the Packers and the over to cash, unbelievable. This is a low total here at 43.5, the Packers are 22nd in in the league in total yards while the Cowboys defense ranks 5th in total yards, and are particularly strong against the pass. I’m thinking the Cowboys may lose this game, but it’s likely to be close given the way the Packers offense has looks and I don’t think they can clean up all the offensive line issues on a couple extra days. They rank 23rd in QB protection, while the Dallas Cowboys have a healthy strong defensive line that gets to the QB 6.67% of the time on the road. |
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12-13-15 | Bills +1 v. Eagles | 20-23 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
Bills +1 3.3* PLAY I’ll take the Bills here, the Eagles have been significantly out gained over their last 3 games each by well over 100 yards. They were extremely fortunate to beat the Patriots, and the fact that they are still alive in the NFC East gives them a chance to be motivated for this game, but we have seen this before. Just when the Eagles get a big win we think that Chip Kelly’s bunch is going to parlay that into a winning streak, and it just doesn’t happen. The Bills meanwhile are much better than their record shows when they are a healthy team, and right now they are a healthy team even Mario Williams will play in this one. This is very much a dual threat offense, and the Eagles have really struggled on the defensive side of the ball over the last month. The Eagles started out as one of the better defenses, but at this point I think they have either given up or are just worn out from being on the field too much. Eagles defense is on the field 57% of the time which is the most of any defense in the league. Tyrod Taylor will lead this team on the road where he has 8 TD’s and 0 INT’s. Taylor gets to hand the ball off to a healthy McCoy who is motivated, and has the rest of his team motivated for his return to Philly. This is a top 10 run offense and a top 5 passing offense from efficiency rankings, and I think it’ll be enough to win on the road. |
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12-13-15 | 49ers v. Browns -1.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show | |
Browns -1.5 2.2* play I like the Browns here to get a short term boost with Johnny Manziel returning to the lineup. It appears the Browns are getting some guys back at WR, and the 49ers who have to make the trip again out East will be without Carlos Hyde who is not traveling with the team. Simply can’t figure out why the Browns would be favored here, and the line movement seems to be giving hints to the right side. At this point I think the Browns are due, and the 49ers are not nearly good enough to claim back to back wins in a different time zone. |
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12-13-15 | Colts v. Jaguars -1.5 | Top | 16-51 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
Jaguars -2.5 5.5* NFL POD The Jaguars are 4-8, but I feel like they are the better team here right now. They have not been as fortunate as the Colts this season, and the Colts again are having injury issues with their QB. Matt Hasselback will make the start, but he’s banged up with the ribs. The Jaguars got lit up in the 4th quarter in their last game, but that was to a mobile QB in Marcus Mariotta, this is a completely different situation here. The Colts also could be peaking ahead to their showdown with the Texans next week who they are tied with in the division, but let’s not sleep on the Jaguars even at 4-8. They get Atlanta at home next week, followed by road games at New Orleans and Houston and could very much be alive to a spot in the playoffs. The Jaguars want a little revenge for their loss on the road against the Colts in OT where they clearly out played them in Indy. Bortles had a good game without a turnover and T.J. Yeldon rushed for 105 yards, but they lost that game. The Jaguars are the much healthier team right now, and just because Hasselback is 4-1 people are expecting that success to continue when in reality he could easily be 0-5 as he has been out gained in every single start. I see nothing different here if nothing else it will be worse with Hassleback being limited or could get knocked out of this game with the first hit. |
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12-06-15 | Broncos v. Chargers +4.5 | 17-3 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 13 m | Show | |
Chargers +4.5 3.3* play Let’s not get carried away with the Broncos beating the Patriots. The Broncos should have beaten the Patriots who were banged up. Osweiler had a great game, but now he has to do it on the road which is a huge question mark. I thought that was a huge win for the Broncos last week over New England now facing a division rival. One thing is for sure Phillip Rivers can throw the ball, and he’s been doing so with an unhealthy offensive line. This offensive line has been healthy for the third game in a row, and it started to show why it makes a difference last week. I think Rivers who was having success behind an awful offensive line will show why he’s one of the best QB’s in football. |
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12-06-15 | Cardinals v. Rams +4.5 | 27-3 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 11 m | Show | |
Rams +4.5 2.2* PLAY The offense for the Cardinals is predicated on down the field throws, and for that to happen Carson Palmer needs time, but against the Rams that’s probably not going to be possible which is why they have been such a tough match up for Arizona. The Rams ranked 5th in sack %, but at home have a 10.36% sack rate. Arizona 7th at protecting their QB, but they have only played 3 opponents who are ranked top 10 in sack percentage. In those 3 games they went 1-2, and their only win was against the Lions who were playing poorly at the time. The Rams are on a tough stretch here with 4 straight loses and it’s no surprise that 3 of those 4 games came on the road. This team has played extremely well at home especially on the defensive side and I think this game will be decided by a field goal. |
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12-05-15 | Florida +18 v. Alabama | 15-29 | Win | 100 | 42 h 32 m | Show | |
Florida +18 3.3* play I feel like this Alabama team is possibly one of the most over rated teams in a while. That’s not to say Florida is any good, but Florida is probably the most under rated team in the SEC and that’s shocking since they are in the title game, but deservingly so after struggling the past few weeks. I expect Florida to be a bit healthier for this game. They also get their top WR back Demarcus Robinson, and I expect them to play lose, really challenge this Alabama defense with things they won’t be able to get from tape. I like Treon Harris ability to be mobile in this game, and Florida has been better in the turnover department. The fact of the matter is we haven’t seen a spread this big in the SEC Championship game in 20 years. The total is extremely low at 39 points making these 18 points even more valuable. Florida is the best defense that Alabama has faced and arguably the most challenging match up when you factor in the talented secondary. Florida can take more chances than most defenses because their corners are that good, and their pass rush is that good (4th in sack %). I like their chances of stopping Derek Henry, I get they struggled vs. Cook last week, but he’s a different back entirely. Henry more of a power runner, has some breakaway speed, but not against a Florida defense. I also love the fact that he’s coming off 46 carries against Auburn, Alabama’s biggest rivalry. That just proves how average this Alabama offense is with just one injury. Henry is their one guy, and you never see Saban running his RB’s like this, but the Kenyan Drake injury has really hurt them. T.J. Yeldon, Eddy Lacy, nor Mark Ingram never had more than 30 carries in a game. Only Trent Richardson did and that was just twice. Henry coming off the 46 carries is at a big risk for either injury or just simply being slowed down. I think he’ll get his 100 yards, but it’s not going to be easy. Florida is going to make Jake Coker hurt them and that’s a big risk for Alabama against this secondary. I think Florida can win the turnover margin, and hang in this game late. *****TEASER OF THE WEEK BONUS****4.4* PLAY OUT OF 5.5 POSSIBLE Kansas State +11.5 4.4* Teaser I would never fade Bill Snyder in a must win situation. Kansas State guarantee’s themselves a bowl game with a win here to move to 6-6, although I think they get a bowl game regardless, but that’s not what Snyder cares about. This is arguably Snyder’s best coaching job although you wouldn’t think of it that way, but he does not have nearly the talent of previous years with limited JC transfers, but he still was competitive in games against Oklahoma State, TCU, and Baylor. Just goes to show you what type of coach he is. I like the momentum this team has built in their last 2 games stemming from their come back win against Iowa State. Looking at West Virgnia, they need to stop the run, and force turnovers to win. They are an excellent defense, but I’m not sure they can run the ball better than Kansas State here. I don’t see West Virginia putting out nearly the effort that Kansas State will, and I think Kansas State’s unique running offense is much more challenging to stop. There is a reason this offense is nothing special, but in conference play they are converting 80% of their opportunities in the red zone into TD’s, and that’s why I really like this teaser. West Virginia on the other hand only 56% in conference play. I also like the fact that Kansas State’s defense has stepped up in red zone defense with a 59% TD percentage allowed. They have had some of their more challenging games at home against TCU, Oklahoma, Baylor and performed well. West Virginia’s offense is not near what those offenses can do. You also have to like the fact that Kansas State is penalized nearly half as much as West Virginia, 7.3 in conference play 8.3 on the road while Kansas State comes in at 4.7 at home 4.8 in conference play. Kansas State also 2nd in the nation in special teams efficiency. West Virginia is getting a lot of credit because of their running game of late which has produced 45% of their yards, and 50% of their TD’s in their last 4 games, but those were against some of the worst run defenses in the nation 125th(home), 66th (home), 122nd (away), 93rd (home) and 3 of those 4 games were at home. I actually like Kansas State to pull the upset, but my algorithms don’t like it so I’m grabbing 6 points on a teaser which makes me really confident here on Saturday moving this over 2 key numbers 7, and 10. North Carolina +10.5 Teaser I like the Tar Heels here, I think they have a group of excellent coaches in Fedora, and Chizik on the defensive side. Everyone is talking about their weak schedule, but if you look at each team’s last 3 games and North Carolina has been more impressive with wins against VA Tech, NC State, a healthy Miami team while Clemson has gotten by against South Carolina, Syracuse and Wake Forest. This is essentially a road game for Clemson at Carolina Panthers Stadium. Marqise Williams threw 3 interceptions in the red zone in week 1 against South Carolina loss and I’m sure he remembers that. Clemson though giving up a lot of points 32, 27, and 41 in their last 3 games on the road to offenses ranked 71st, 100th, and 61st in yards per play. North Carolina is ranked #1. This offense is the best that Clemson has faced, they have played a lot of weak offenses this year and have caught Miami without their star QB, Florida State right when they made their transition to a new QB, and they should have lost to Notre Dame at home. North Carolina is a very solid team despite their schedule that nobody respects. They can run the ball better than Clemosn although they may have difficulties stopping the run they will be better in the red zone on offense, and they have a +9 turnover margin conference play compared to Clemson -4, they are 12th in the country in special teams efficiency while Clemson is 76th. Clemson one of the worst teams in field position value which will make these points even more valuable. I’ve seen this Clemson offense sputter many times this season and if they do at all in this game North Carolina’s offense is plenty good to pull the upset and definitely cover double digits. |
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12-05-15 | Southern Miss +8 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 28-45 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 32 m | Show |
Southern Miss +8 5.5* NCAAF POD W/ +260 1* BONUS ON ML A lot of people are going to look at Western Kentucky, see what they did against Marshall (49-28 win), last year’s CUSA team, and see what Southern Miss has done the last few seasons (4 total wins last 3), and see their loss 10-31 on the road against Marshall and automatically assume big win here for Western Kentucky, but I think Southern Miss will shock a lot of people here. First of all the conference stats don’t lie, and Southern Miss is better at stopping the run, running the ball, and pass defense. Add in the fact that Southern Miss has faced the 2 most difficult Conference USA opponents (LA Tech, and Marshall) on the road while Western Kentucky played them at home, and it makes me really respect them more. Shoot Western Kentucky even played Middle Tennessee at home, the last CUSA team with a winning record (there are only 5). Both teams want to pass the ball here, but Southern Miss is much more balanced, and I see Western Kentucky giving up on the run early in this game. Southern Miss allowing 3.27 yards per carry in conference play and has a couple of former power 5 recruits on the defensive line. I mentioned early in the season how much I liked this team and Monken in his 3rd year coaching I knew it was going to be a good one and we have benefited along the way by backing this team. They still aren’t getting any credit, because they are over shadowed by the sexy offense and sexy QB in Brandon Doughty. I like Southern Miss Nick Mullens just as much here, and he’s been better on the road with 21 TD’s and 2 interceptions. Speaking of turnovers, that’s how Western Kentucky’s defense gets by forcing 27, but Southern Miss has cleaned that up and is actually +6 in their last 3 games compared to Western Kentucky who is +1. Looking into this further this is 1 of 3 solid defenses that Western Kentucky has faced from a pass defense perspective. Vanderbilt (who they should have lost to) held them to 14 points and are ranked 58th in sack %, 26th in opposing QB rating, and 38th in yards per pass attempt. LSU, 35th, 45th, and 24th. Both of those defenses play in a better conference, but Southern Miss is right there with 41, 22nd, and 21st, and they can stop the run. To put this in perspective in pass defense. Western Kentucky is ranked 96th, 66th, and 63rd, and have allowed a conference QB rating of 117 compared to Southern Miss 100. Keep in mind the home and away games in favor of Western Kentucky. Western Kentucky has played 3 teams in the top 35 in yards per play and are about to face their 4th. Southern Miss truly is a balanced team when you look at the defense we talked about and the fact that they can run the ball 5.59 yards per carry in conference play with Ito Smith averaging over 7. They are ranked 5th in yards per play in the nation. Western Kentucky has faced La Tech 21st (at home) allowed 38 points, LSU 25th (road) 48, Indiana 34th (road) 38. I’d put this Southern Miss offense as the best out of those 3. When you take into consideration that they are a threat throwing and passing the ball. LSU, is one dimensional, Indiana is one dimensional, and La Tech not as good as we saw last week. I really like what Southern Miss did in two challenging non-conference games vs. Nebraska and Miss State and I think they will recapture the glory days of their Conference USA success. |
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12-04-15 | Northern Illinois +12.5 v. Bowling Green | 14-34 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
Northern Illinois +12.5 3.3* play I believe this line is inflated because of the QB situation at Northern Illinois as freshman Tommy Fiedler the 3rd string gets the start. The QB situation for Northern Illinois has never been an issue and Fiedler's running capabilities are a bit better than Graham and Hare's so this actually may work in their favor. Either way Northern Illinois will run the ball 60% +, and will do it with tempo. They rank top 25 in pace, and are 6-1 when they run for more than 200 yards this season. Bowling Green will have their hands full on defense, and this should be a very competitive game. They have allowed an average 38.6 points per game vs. top 50 paced teams over 5 total games. Bowling Green has yet to figure out a way to stop the run in this match up over the years as Bowling Green has rushed for over 200 yards in every match up since 2008, and have averaged over 5 yards per carry the last 3. Northern Illinois also plays very good defense, and has faced 3 top 40 passing offenses. Northern Illinois ranks 24th in opposing QB rating, 25th in yards per pass attempt, and 25th overall in yards per play, all MAC bests. What's interesting is this team has held those top 40 passing offenses 10 points below their season average. Northern Illinois also very very good in the red zone allowing 38.46 % TD percentage, and their pass defense also 13th in opponent interception % on passes thrown. Matt Johnson has been one of the best all year no doubt, but he has 3 interceptions in his last 3 games. This is a team that lost at home to Toledo because of turnovers and Northern Illinois went on the road and beat them. We get some line value here based on the result the Huskies had against Ohio last week. The MAC West a tougher conference and has gone 11-8 vs. the East this year. I'll predict a Bowling Green win, but it will be by 7 points or less. |
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11-28-15 | Notre Dame v. Stanford -3 | 36-38 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
Stanford -3 -115 3* play Notre Dame has not played well on the road at all. Nearly got upset by a bad Virginia team, they lose to Clemson although they out played them, they gave Temple a shot to beat them, and they beat Pittsburgh 42-30. Stanford is a team that wants to run the ball, but is also very confident letting their experienced QB Kevin Hogan make plays down the field. They are very different than Stanford teams of past, and I think both of these defenses are actually not nearly as good as the ones we have seen in the past. However, Stanford has just as much to play for here, Notre Dame has really been playing like "Ohio State" for week's and already should have lost to one PAC 12 team (USC) at home. I trust Stanford to make adjustments at this point more than I do Notre Dame. The Irish are -4 on the season in turnovers, they are allowing 4.85 yards per carry on the road this season. Their offense is converting just 33% on the road, and have struggled in the red zone all year long where this game will be decided. Notre Dame just 58% TD's in the red zone, 50% on the road, while their defense has allowed 71%. Stanford meanwhile comes in at 66.67%, and 70% TD's in the red zone at home. Stanford's defense has allowed 45.95%, and if they can avoid the big play they will win this game by a TD at least. That's not a given, and I wouldn't be shocked to see the Notre Dame receivers beating this secondary deep, but I think Stanford will do a good job of getting a lead early and controlling the clock. Stanford #1 in the nation in TOP, while Notre Dame comes in 59th. Florida +8.5 / LSU +0.5 4.4* TEASER Since yesterday's teaser was a push, and I really hope your sportsbook refunds your money when you push and win on two games in a teaser, it has happened to me two weekends in a row. Some of you though may have gotten Nebraska at +8.5 and got the cover. I feel really good about these two games tonight. We are backing two teams that nobody probably wants to. Florida who just nearly escaped Florida Atlantic in OT last week, and LSU who has dropped three straight. Let's start with Florida I think Florida State's QB Sean Maguire will make mistakes in this game that will win the Gators this game, but we are teasing it to grab great value here at +8.5 for the home dogs. First of all Florida State has not played well on the road at all going 2-2 and their wins were not impressive at all against Wake Forest and Boston College. Florida State has to beat the best defense they have had to face all year long. They have the best offensive player on the field in Dalvin Cook, but he's one hit from being taken out of the game with an injury. I don't trust his health, and even with 20+ carries I don't see them winning big. Florida has only given up 7 total rushing TD's this season. On the flip side I like the value here with Florida after last week. I trust Jim McElwain, and whether his team was flat last week, because they were looking towards this game or they just weren't trying to show too much on tape I don't care I know they will rebound they have done it before this year. Florida's offense will look better I guarantee you that, and this entire team has to feel totally disrespected. They sit at 1 loss, at LSU and have won every big game they have been in (Georgia 27-3), Ole Miss (38-10). This team has the most to gain by winning today, and possibly beating Alabama in the SEC Championship to get into the discussion for the playoff. LSU Game - Is Les Miles out after this game? I don't think it really matters. They lost their last 3 games, but look at who they have played. At Alabama who allows 2.28 yards per carry at home, Arkansas at home the following week (major hang over spot), but vs. the 24th ranked run defense and most balanced offense in the SEC, then they go on the road to play Ole Miss 11th in run defense. Now they get a home game at night against the 94th ranked run defense. This is exactly what the doctor ordered, because LSU needs to run the ball to win with 6.66 YPC in wins and 3.16 in losses. LSU's defense has not played well either, but they have been on the field way too much which we all know has a huge impact. Guess what, Texas A&M is ranked 108th in time of possession, they have had major issues scoring in the red zone as well, and LSU doesn't really give up the big plays. A&M, 38% TD's ont he road in the red zone, and 41% in conference play. LSU has had issues in the red zone, but I think the fact that their defense won't be on the field as much and they face an offense that's not nearly as good as the last 3 teams they faced (All top 50), A&M is not a top 50 offense from yards per play perspective. Expect LSU to win here and whether is Miles last game or not he'll go out a winner. |
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11-28-15 | Northwestern -3.5 v. Illinois | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 67 h 52 m | Show | |
Northwestern -3 -120 buy 1/2 point 3.5* play I'm advising a buy on the half point with the Wildcats on Saturday as they host in state rival Illinois. Actually this is not close to being a rivalry game although I know former Illini head coach Tim Beckhman wanted it to be. I will say this, Fitzgerald and Northwestern remember losing last year's game big and getting knocked out of a bowl game, and I don't like the revenge factor, but Fitzgerald's quotes make it obvious that they want revenge, they want to knock Illinois out, and get 10 wins. A 10 win season is just as important as a bowl season for Illinois, and Northwestern is far superior. I backed Illinois last week, and we really got the cover on the road against Minnesota but they give up the long TD at the end of the game in meaningless time or a meaningless core for Minnesota who could have ended the game with 1 first down, but that sort of things happens. Illinois has given up 538 yards on the ground over their past two games which is a bad bad thing with Northwestern coming to play. Northwestern 4.42 YPC in wins, 1.75 in losses, they need to run the ball. Justin Jackson has been great and had 139 yards against a Wisconsin defense that doesn't let anyone run on them. Northwestern has had an impressive season, I like the revenge factor and Illinois HC already know he's likely out after this season and Illinois is 0-12 in their last 12 vs. ranked opponents losing by 22.6 points on average. |
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11-28-15 | Alabama v. Auburn +14.5 | 29-13 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 30 m | Show | |
Auburn +14.5 2.2* play I’ll take War Eagle in this game they have nothing to lose in this game. Gus Malzahn one of the genius offensive guys in football has given Alabama headaches in years past. Alabama can dominate the trenches on paper, but Auburn seems to be playing its best football right now. They have rushed for over 5 yards per carry in each of their last 3 games, and have held 4 straight opponents under 200 yards. I look for that improvement, and their run defense against Georgia despite a losing effort was really impressive. This team has been really close in a lot of games, and I wouldn’t be surprised for them to hold this game close. For one thing both of these offenses are one dimensional, and I don’t see a lot of points unless they go up tempo at points, but overall I think Auburn will be in striking distance. The line is huge based on Alabama’s dominance on the road this season, and Auburn’s inconsistent play, but I think that just gives us tremendous value. |
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11-28-15 | Clemson v. South Carolina +17.5 | Top | 37-32 | Win | 100 | 62 h 10 m | Show |
South Carolina +17.5 5.5* NCAAF POD Never underestimate a team in a rivalry game. We will see what the Gamecocks have left in 2015, this is their bowl game. Clemson should already be looking at North Carolina, as South Carolina just lost to Citadel, but before that they beat Vanderbil 19-10,and lost to Texas A&M, Florida and Tennessee by a combined 20 points. They have to cover 17.5 in their own building, and I think they can give Clemson quite the scare here. I think South Carolina can put up some points here, and last week meant absolutely nothing to them, but it probably gave us a few more points to work with if nothing else. I’m probably biased towards the SEC, but the ACC is far weaker, and South Carolina faced teams like LSU, Florida, Georgia, A&M, and Tennessee meanwhile Clemson got games in the same category against Notre Dame, and Florida State. South Carolina at home has had a very good defense, they have allowed just 3 passing TD’s to 8 interceptions. They held North Carolina’s high flying offense in check. North Carolina is fairly similar and they held Marqise Williams to 9 yards rushing, and 1 TD and 3 interceptions. Clemson has also struggled on the road quite a bit winning by just 3 at Louisville, giving up 41 to NC State, losing by 10 to Syracuse, and most are expect an epic blowout, but Clemson really does not need that to enhance their resume they just need to simply win their final 2 games. This is an in state rivalry game and we have seen South Carolina step up and play competitive games against good competition before. I don’t quite see the value on the money line at +575 FRIDAY'S TEASER BONUS PLAY Boise State -1.5 Teaser 5.5* MAX PLAY This is a tough spot for San Jose State who will be fighting for their bowl hopes, but they face Boise State a top 30 defense. San Jose State is on short rest, and they are coming off a road trip from Hawaii, this is a difficult spot for any team at any time in the season never mind at the end of the season. Boise State has to be pissed off after 2 straight losess. This team is 13-2 straight up following a loss since 2008. What I really like about Boise in this spot is they are 5-1 when they can run the ball for greater than 4 yards per carry, I believe they can do that against San Jose State, and they are 7-1 when they allow the opponent to run for 4 yards or less per carry. The game plan against a weaker San Jose State team should simply be stop the run, and if Boise doesn’t turn the ball over a crazy amount like the Utah State game they should win this game easily. San Jose is 0-3 vs. top 35 defenses this year and they have really stacked up their stats against the weak teams in the conference. San Jose State also not a very good team on special teams which is something Boise State prides themselves on. I don’t see the edge with San Jose State other then they want to get to a bowl game, but the line value is right for Boise State it should be 14+, it’s not because of B2B losses, and the line has moved from 10 to 7.5 let’s take advantage of these factors and take Boise State. Nebraska +8 Teaser I love the Huskers in this match up, and really wanted to take them on the regular line to pull off the upset. A few things stopped me including their ability to stop the run which is a bit misleading, but they are well rested, and have a deep rotation that should make things very challenging for Iowa. First of all every time Nebraska was in a tight game in the 4th quarter they have found a way to lose. They could very easily be sitting here undefeated as well, but they are not so it’s hard to take them to win this game, but I feel extremely comfortable and confident in them covering a full TD in this game as long at Tommy Armstrong doesn’t give Iowa points by turning the ball over 3+ times we should be in good shape. Nebraska is going to challenge this Iowa defense that hasn’t been challenged. They have a balanced offense, that can beat you both ways, and they really like to open things up in the passing game top 25 explosiveness, and although the weather may hold some of that back they are just as dangerous on the ground as Iowa. Home field advantage and the 13 days off, Iowa is on 6 days off and full of distractions now that they are thrown into the college football playoff. Nebraska also wants a win to get into a bowl game, and have been competitive in every game. I think the difference will be up front for Nebraska who terrorized this Iowa offensive line last year with Vincente Valentine and Maliek Collins. If Iowa gets into predictable situations they will not win this game and Nebraska can claim they beat both teams in the Big 10 Championship game. Even with a loss Iowa is still alive for the college football playoff. |
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11-27-15 | Navy -3.5 v. Houston | Top | 31-52 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 18 m | Show |
Navy -3.5 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD Granted we would have been getting better line value here with Navy if Houston had won last week against Houston. I understand Greg Ward didn’t really play, and he should be healthy for this game, but he’s just not 100% and I would play Navy even with a 100% Ward. I trust a disciplined Navy defense over Houston who hasn’t faced anyone any day of the week. The red flags have definitely popped up over the last 3 weeks with Houston winning by 3, 1, and losing by 3 this past week. They have definitely been lucky in their wins, and have relied largely on forcing turnovers which won’t cut it against Navy who has just 6 turnovers on the year. The blueprint has been shown on how to beat Houston, and I don’t think Houston’s defense which is extremely misleading has enough time to prepare for a triple option attack, arguably one of the best triple action attacks we have seen in years led by Keenan Reynolds. Reynolds leads this team, and Navy is ranked 6th in yards per carry. Both Uconn and Memphis ran the ball 43, and 54 times against Houston with decent success and they are ranked 84th and 106th. Houston has not allowed a team to rush for over 4 yards per carry, but… Fact, Houston has faced an average rushing offense ranked 91st and just 2 team sin top 50 at 43 and 48. Navy should be able to control this game like they have in every game this year besides Notre Dame. Navy has the better defense here with less to prepare for on the short week. I respect Houston’s head coach Tom Herman, but he’s gotten by this season with an easy schedule. Houston’s rushing offense has shown issues in their last 2 days and I don’t think they can just flip the switch vs. Navy, an extremely disciplined team that knows how to stop the run ranking 31st in the country. Houston has rushed for 96, and 110 the last 2 weeks showing more vulnerabilities that a team like Navy can easily take advantage of. Looking at the conference stats between these two. Navy has the advantage in rushing offense, and slight edge in rushing defense based on strength of schedule which is ranked 31st compared to Houston at 112th. Passing offense efficiency of 162 in conference play with no turnovers to Houston at 136 with 5 turnovers. Passing defense Houston edge, but again SOS comes into play and they don’t even have that big of an advantage 133 to 128. Navy penalized exactly 3 less times per game in conference play at 2.9. Navy converting on third downs 61% compared to Houston at 48.21%, Again advantage Houston slightly on 3rd down defense 39.29% compared to 42.5% but they are worse at home. Red Zone offense edge to Navy at 77% TD’s on 35 attempts in conference play, 72.7% for Houston on 33 attempts. Houston’s red zone defense has been an issue at times and has allowed 70% conversions to Navy’s 65%. 4th down’s could be the biggest difference in this game, Houston has stopped them, but hasn’t faced a team that attempts and converts like Navy with 90% success rate. Houston is 3-10, and Navy has held opponents to 31% conversions on 4th downs. I think the type of preparation you have to do for a Navy game is washed out by the fact that Houston has home field advantage. We saw Houston go into Memphis and win 45-20, we saw Memphis nearly beat Houston 2 weeks ago. Navy knows what is at stake, and these players can put their signature on this program’s history. I don’t see them losing this game without turning the ball over 2 times and they just don’t do that. |
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11-26-15 | Texas Tech v. Texas -1.5 | 48-45 | Loss | -101 | 44 h 8 m | Show | |
Texas -1 -105 3.5* play I like the Longhorns here, and would like them even larger if they were healthier at RB, but I don’t think it matters against Texas Tech. Texas has had a good rushing attack all season with Heard at QB throwing defenses off, and Texas Tech is among one of the worst defenses I have ever seen. Texas has more to play for, and I think these players step up to keep their bowl hopes alive with Baylor on deck. Texas has shown abilities to score a lot of points this season against bad defenses, and they have played much better at home. In reality I don’t like either coach here, but Kingsbury has not shown me anything than an ability to run his mouth. He’s 0-3 from last year off extra rest, he typically has an easier schedule, and he’s lost in convincing fashion the last two years against Texas and that’s because Texas has been able to run the ball with consistency. Texas becomes a hard team to beat if you put them in that situation, and they have 5.48 yards per carry at home this season, and have rushed for 5.78 in their wins vs. 4.25 in their loses. I don’t know that Tech has that ability to stop Texas offense with extra prep time. I really doubt it and I have more faith in Texas defense to stop Tech’s offense for a couple of reasons. Texas has played better defense overall and has hold conference opponents to 3.87 yards per carry. They also possess something that most Big 12 teams don’t, a pass rush ranking top 10. Only Oklahoma can claim that. Actually a good pass rush is what Texas Tech struggles against going just 2-6 straight up in the Kingsbury era. Some other things popped out to me when looking at this match up other than the fact that the general public is so far down on Texas right now. Texas has actually played better at home, better in conference play. Tech’s offense and defense have played worse, their red zone defense and 3rd down defense in conference play and on the road are very concerning, they turn the ball over too much, their special teams is 51 points worse than Texas from an efficiency perspective, and they are penalized 1.5x more per conference game. BOISE -1.5 / NEBRASKA +8 5.5* TEASER OF THE WEEK |
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11-26-15 | Panthers v. Cowboys -1 | Top | 33-14 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
DALLAS COWBOYS -1 5.5* NFL POD The Cowboys play really well at home during Thanksgiving Day, this is a short week for Carolina, I’m tired of seeing this team win, and I finally think they meet their destiny. This is probably first match up all season that they face an offensive line that’s better than their defensive line. The return of Tony Romo is huge, I don’t doubt he’ll still be rusty, but the running game improved, the offense will stay on the field a lot more, and that will help the defense as it did last game. Greg Hardy also should be fired up for this game, and I expect it to rub off on this defense as they will force the Panthers into a few turnovers. The crazy thing is the Panthers have only been on the road 4 times this season in 10 games. They don’t have a win on the road against a winning team. The Jaguars have a losing record, the Bucs have a losing record, the Seahawks are 5-5, and the Titans have a losing record. Yes I know the Cowboys don’t have a winning record either, but this is a team that’s in a must win the rest of the year. The intensity is there they are health, and Carolina is coming over on a short week. EAGLES +8.5 / BEARS +14.5 3.3* NFL Teaser I will tease the early and late game here in what I feel is an excellent spot. This is a buy low sell high situation in the Eagles vs. Detroit as the Lions are playing well all of a sudden, and the Eagles are coming off one of their worst games ever with all kinds of rumors swirling. I just don’t see this team getting beat by more than a TD if at all to the Lions who have been awful on Thanksgiving Day. Too many distractions in the early game for the home team with nothing left to play for. The Eagles just 1 game back in the NFC East. For the Bears, they are one of the best coached teams in the league and once again I like the road team. Green Bay off the big win but this is far too much credit they made Teddy Bridgewater beat them which was expected. It was cold I predicted Green Bay would win that game, but they didn’t look great doing so. Aaron Rodgers shoulder is not 100% which is a HUGE factor that nobody is talking about, and it’s not like this defense can stop the Bears pass or rushing and expect the other to take care of itself. The Bears have the weapons and coaching to beat you with the run or the pass, and this is a division rival that likely will be decided by less than a TD, but I like the value we get with the line move to grab them over 2 TD’s |
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11-24-15 | Bowling Green v. Ball State +23.5 | 48-10 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 11 m | Show | |
Ball State +23 3.3* play I really like Ball State here tonight back at home, after not covering the spread 2 weeks in a row. They've given up 48 and 54 points on the road the last two weeks, so the perception is and should be bad defense, against better offense, but Bowling Green has absolutely nothing to play for here. Bowling Green is already in the MAC Championship and have a history of laying down when they don't have much to play for. I think it's more important for them to rest their players than to beat Ball State. Ball State has room for optimism too, this is a much better team at home, they also have a lot to look forward to with their QB Riley Neal, who even played well at Ohio last week in the losing effort. It's this team's last home game, and I could easily see Ball State sticking around late in this one. |
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11-22-15 | Packers v. Vikings | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show | |
[b] Packers pk 3.3* play [/b] I'm not sold on the Vikings, still not sold. It's going to be cold here today at home, and I trust Aaron Rodgers in the cold over Teddy Bridgewater, a Florida boy who already has issues throwing tight spirals. The Packers should make Bridgewater beat them, and I can't see Adrian Peterson going crazy with another 20+ carry day after coming back off the west coast trip. This is a huge game for the Packers that could define their season. I like what I have heard from the Packers coaches and McCarthy may be poking his head into the offensive game plan more that will make the big difference. |
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11-22-15 | Chiefs v. Chargers +3 | 33-3 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
Chargers +3 +105 3* play The Chargers are as healthy as they have ever been getting a couple guys back on the offensive line which will be huge for Phillip Rivers, and the Chiefs coming in with too much hype after beating a Broncos team that was banged up. I like the fact that it happened, because it gives us a lot of line value on this game. |
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11-22-15 | Broncos -1.5 v. Bears | 17-15 | Win | 100 | 2 h 44 m | Show | |
Broncos -1.5 3.3* play |
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11-22-15 | Raiders +1 v. Lions | 13-18 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 42 m | Show | |
Raiders 3.3* play +1 |
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11-22-15 | Colts v. Falcons -3.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -107 | 2 h 50 m | Show |
Falcons -3 -120 5.5* NFL POD The Falcons off a bye week along with the Colts, but I think this is a very tough game for the Colts starting a 40 year old QB. I like the value we are getting here with the Falcons considering they lost 5 in a row ATS leading up to their bye while the Colts have been winning ATS. Falcons here look to go a little up tempo in this game if you ready into some of the articles I believe the Falcons will covers this spread and win, but I'm buying the 1/2 point to protect my investment. |
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11-21-15 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State | 45-35 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 59 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State pk 2.2* play / Under 78 3.3* play Mike Gundy is a terrific coach, and definitely the better coach in this match up. Oklahoma State enjoys one of the best home field advantages in all of football going 26-5 since 2011 here, and even better 23-1 when they are favored, which some books have Oklahoma State favored, and in those 24 games they have out performed the spread by an average of 6 points. Baylor has been notorious for their easy schedules early, and have gone 6-14 straight up in their last 20 November road games. They scored just 17 points here in 2013 coming in with an undefeated record at the time. The offense has not clicked under Stidham despite his great stats and the rushing offense has been halted in the last two games now that they are playing defenses with a pulse. Stidham not 100% for this game (back), but will likely play, and has his hands full against an Oklahoma State team that is allowing 3.3 ypc on the ground, has 15 interceptions, and a top 10 pass rush. Oklahoma, a team with a top 10 pass rush gave Baylor all sorts of issues as Stidham was constantly under pressure. Look for Emanuel Ogbah to help force a turnover that could change the game. I think the total is a bit high here as well considering those facts, and the game is calling for 22mph winds, which typically impacts the defenses, I may by back on the over if this line moves down to 71 or 72, and the weather clears up a bit, but at this number I really like the under to hit, and I like Oklahoma State who are 13-3 SU & ATS in their last 16 meetings with Baylor, and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 overall in the month of November. There is a bit of value here with Oklahoma State after they struggled against Iowa State last week which was to be expected. Iowa State is a well-coached team under Paul Rhoads, like a poor man’s Bill Snyder. |
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11-21-15 | Northwestern +10 v. Wisconsin | 13-7 | Win | 100 | 40 h 60 m | Show | |
Northwestern +10 2.2* play The total in this game is 40, and we get 10 points to work with a dominant defense against an offense that has not been very good at all. Typically Wisconsin can run the ball with the best of teams, but they are one of the worst, and they haven’t played a lot of good run defenses. I don’t see anything changing that at this point in the season as this team has just two 200+ yard rushing games and those came against Hawaii and Rutgers. Wisconsin has played just two teams in the top 25 in defense and scored 17, and 6 points, Northwestern is ranked 9th in yards per play allowed. These two teams look like a mirror of each other. Both predicated on their defense, and running the ball, and ironically Northwestern has run the ball better 4.03 YPC in conference play vs. better defenses – they have faced 5 top 25 defenses, Wisconsin just 1 in conference play. Wisconsin has averaged just 3.56 ypc in conference play. Both pass defenses are excellent allowing 5 passing TD’s on the season, so scoring is going to be at a premium here. It will be a little windy as well so I give the edge to Northwestern here with a mobile QB. Joel Stave has not played well vs. this defense throwing 5 interceptions, and he’s faced 3 top 35 passing defenses this year and has not played well 2 TD’s and 3 INT’s in 3 games. Northwestern 7th in passing defense for opposing QB rating. Granted Northwestern hasn’t really faced any QB’s that can bomb it away, but Stave struggled vs. Rutgers (117th passing defense), and Maryland (83rd). Northwestern also has an edge in special teams with Soloman Vault. I get that Wisconsin is off a bye here and has a very good defense, but Northwestern is well coached by Fitzgerald. They come off a 3 turnover game last week, and have bounced back twice with 0 turnovers in their next game. I give them a lot of credit here, and I think they’ll be competitive |
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11-21-15 | USC +4.5 v. Oregon | Top | 28-48 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 59 m | Show |
USC +4.5 5.5* NCAAF POD This is a worse match up for Oregon on Saturday, because USC is better at limiting big plays than Stanford is ranking 22nd. Oregon who relies on the run also struggles to win games against top 30 run defenses which USC is from a YPC perspective. Oregon lost to Utah, lost to Michigan State, and only beat Washington by 6, but USC far more capable on offense than Washington is that’s for sure, and last I looked this Oregon defense is still pretty awful, and USC has a much more balanced offense than Stanford does. Oregon also coming into this game off 4 straight covers and Vegas has not been close. Oregon has covered the spread by 10.5, 12.5, 8.5, and 8.5. USC coming off back to back loses ATS of 14 and 11, so Vegas definitely adjusted this line, but on paper USC should win this game from a statistical perspective. USC has the edge here in other situational scenarios given that they have an extra day to prepare, Oregon off a huge emotional win, and in reality they got lucky. They knock Stanford out of the playoff discussion, and I think that was satisfying enough. It’s a long shot for them to compete for the division, while USC is in the driver seat to get to the PAC 12 Championship. This game means much more to USC. Oregon’s defense was pretty bad last game, and was lucky with forcing 3 turnovers, 2 of which came on bad center to QB exchanges while Stanford was looking to score. That rarely happens, and even when it does the offense typically recovers, but Oregon got extremely lucky and now we are benefiting with this line. USC simply does not turn the ball over, only 9 on the year. I’m a bit concerned about the injuries USC has on defense, but I think they should be able to do whatever they want on defense, Oregon is going to have to score on longer methodical drives than they are comfortable with, and that typically results in mistakes from this team. Give me the points with USC losing a lot of public backers the past few weeks. 3 weeks ago USC would have been favored, and this team has played extremely well on the road, and probably should have beaten Notre Dame. I’ll ignore their crummy performance against Colorado last week. |
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11-21-15 | Illinois +5 v. Minnesota | 23-32 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 49 m | Show | |
ILLINOIS +5 3.3* play These two teams are very similar, poor on offense, ranked similarly on defense, and they have faced similar strength of schedules although Illinois has played a bit better in my opinion. I believe this line should be more like 3 points, but recent bias has this line higher, because Minnesota has been extremely competitive in their last 3 games against Michigan, Ohio State, and Iowa arguably the 3 best Big 10 teams. I just do not trust their ability to get up for this game, along with the fact that Minnesota is extremely banged up right now, the defensive line, the offensive line, the secondary all have so many question marks going into this game. If you are a casual fan you would make a few assumptions about this game including the fact that Minnesota can run the ball, Minnesota has the better defense, and Illinois is below average on defense, but that’s actually not true and it favors Illinois in this match up, because they have the better defense, they have the better running game, and Minnesota has struggled to run the ball ranking 102nd in the nation. In fact Illinois is ranked 9th overall in defense, 41st in rush and 12th in pass in S&P ratings. Minnesota has been forced to pass so much this year and they’ve done okay, but just 12 passing TD’s on 334 attempts. This team struggles big time when they get to the red zone, and they’ll face a relentless front 7 out of Illinois that is hungry to get to a bowl game. Looking at other stats in this game you have to really like Illinois who have the edge in third down defense, red zone offense, red zone defense by a wide margin, turnover margin by 7, penalties, special teams, and tackle for a loss margin. Again they are coming off a 28-3 loss to Ohio State, and not getting much credit, but I think we are about to see Ohio State turn it into high gear, and they had JT Barrett on his heals the entire game. I truly expect Illinois to actually win this game on the road. I don’t know that Minnesota can get up for a team like Illinois after playing 4 marquee games in a row. TEASER OF THE WEEK - 4.4* PLAY - DUKE +8.5 / KANSAS STATE PK DUKE +8.5 TEASER The value is definitely here on Duke after losing ATS in their last 3 games by 13, 29, and 15.5, and they now get a match up I believe they can handle, and they made a big change kicking three guys off the team which should be a difference maker. Virginia on the other hand now 3-7, can’t get to a bowl, but have covered 4 games in a row, and they have Virginia Tech next week who they have lost to 11 times. Mike London definitely not motivated here in my opinion, but will be looking towards that game. The coaching edge here with David Cutcliffe is enormous in my opinion, and I think Duke gets back to Duke football. Virginia’s defense is not very good particularly against the run, and I think Dukes rushing offense will get some nice runs to control this game. To beat Duke big you have to be able to stop the pass, and pass the ball, and that’s not Virginia’s game at all. Yes Matt Johns can put up yards, but he’s been a turnover machine with 15 interceptions this Virginia team has a -9 turnover margin on the season. Their pass defense has allowed a 156 QB rating which is good news to whomever plays QB for Duke. They missed Thomas Sirk last week, and I think he will play in this game. Duke enjoys the advantage in 3rd down offense, and defense, and has +15 trips inside the red zone to Virginia’s -13 trips. They have a significant edge I special teams, and are +32 in tackles for loss. Everyone is so low on Duke right now and it’s the exact time I like to jump in and back a team. I like them in a teaser considering in Virginia’s 3 wins they have only won by 6 and no more. KANSAS ST PK TEASER Along with Duke I will be teasing Kansas State to just win the game. I feel we have great value here given the fact that Kansas State is still alive for a bowl game at 3-6 with 3 games left, including games against Kansas, and West Virginia who they will close out the season against at home. Iowa State at 3-7 now, and is in a huge hang over spot after having undefeated Oklahoma State on the ropes. Iowa State’s defense is just not very good, and it’s exactly what Kansas State needs to break their 6 game losing streak. They are 38-17 ATS in their last 55 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and this is just the 4th time they have been favored they have won every other game. Kansas State is 21-4 in their history against Iowa State, and I believe Bill Snyder is the better coach, and will have his team ready. He’s already admitted that he has each player searching, and looking over his 16 goals, and I just think that’s Snyder being a great coach, being able to get the best out of every athlete. He hasn’t had the talent that he has had in years past yet he’s still had this team fighting in games against TCU and Baylor. I look for this team to fight to get to 5 wins with a shot at a 6th against West Virginia, but it starts this week. |
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11-21-15 | Rutgers -4.5 v. Army | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 37 h 31 m | Show | |
Rutgers -4.5 2.2* play 12pm I like Rutgers here as a road favorite this team is geared up and pumped up to be playing the triple option according to Kyle Flood. Rutgers is 12-2 since 2001 vs. triple option teams, and this defense has played better vs. the run than last year when they allowed 5.53 ypc on the season, but they were able to hold Navy, a much more polished version of this offense to a season low 171 yards, and they did not have an extra week of practice. The value is on Rutgers in my opinion this team is not as bad as they have looked losing their last 4 in a row SU & ATS, losing ATS by 9.5, 9, 30, and 21. I think they bounce back with a win ATS here. Rutgers gets a break here in the defense they face, and when they are not playing a top tier defense this offense can hum a little bit. Army ranked 128th in pass defense, 68th in run defense, and the last 4 games Rutgers has faced 4 teams in the top 22 in run defense, and 3 of the 4 were ranked top 5 in pass defense, yes you got that right they faced the best pass defense, 3rd, and 5th all in their last 4 games. I’m not surprised this offense has sputtered, but they have put up big numbers when going up against a pass defense like Army. If Rutgers is able to score like I think they will they won’t have an issue covering this number. Army is not going to try to kick field goals, and Rutgers is very good out of conference play on third downs. I think they will defense the triple option well, as Kyle Flood, a very good coach has challenged his team stating “this is one of the great challenges in all college football.” They did a great job last year under DC Joe Rossi, and over their last 14 where they have gone 12-2 they have held triple option offenses 46.4 yards below their season average. Army not nearly as polished as the Navy teams Rutgers has faced, and I think Rutgers hold them well under their season average of 254. When Army is held under that average they are 0-5 losing games by an average of 13.8 points. We have two things working for us in this match up, Rutgers ability to defend this triple option, and Army’s defense giving Rutgers an ability to score that they haven’t had lately. I’m all over this one. |
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11-20-15 | Cincinnati -1.5 v. South Florida | 27-65 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 32 m | Show | |
Cincinnati -1.5 3.3* play I'm going to take the Bearcats here in this situation tonight going on the road to face a South Florida team coming off their biggest win in many many years defeating the ranked Temple team and they did so in easy fashion. I had South Florida in a teaser last week and it easily cashed, but on a short week I think the Bearcats will be more ready to win this game. First of all South Florida has placed 3 top 50 offenses (Cincinnati is the best) from a yards per play perspective and has gone 0-3 against them. This is a major hang over game for South Florida, and Cincinnati clearly playing with an edge right now. They were the pre season favorite, and really if they don't turn the ball over 11 times in their 3 conference losses against Houston, Memphis, and Temple we would be having a different conversation as Cincinnati out gained Houston by 162, Temple by 261, and Memphis by 182, but lost all 3 games! South Florida is ranked 82nd in takeaways and I expect the Bearcats to take care of the ball. Nobody has stopped this offense all season and I don't see South Florida stopping it either. However, South Florida can run the ball with Marlon Mack and Quinton Flowers and it's not like Cincinnati's defense has played well, it hasn't. I do see Marlon Mack on a short week with 48 carries in his last two games and I really have to wonder if he may get gassed in this game. Cinci, comes into this game with more healthy players, and really is a team that is more capable of playing well on a short week. They are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings, the value here is on the Bearcats when you consider how South Florida has covered the spread with ease the last two weeks 23.5, and 10.5. |
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11-19-15 | Titans +3 v. Jaguars | 13-19 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
Titans +3 3.3* play I was on the Titans over the Panthers last week, and again the Panthers proved me wrong. I actually think the Titans will play well here on Thursday night and it's a bit weird that they are not larger under dogs given the fact that the Jaguars just pulled the upset at Baltimore, but in reality they beat a 2-7 team, and the field goal to win should have never happened. I like what I have seen already from the Titans defense, and from Marcus Mariotta in terms of development. Mariotta will face the 26th ranked pass defense and he has a 118 QB rating on the road this year. Give me the Titans on the short week, I think the defense will be well prepared behind Dick LeBeau as the defensive coordinator, and they will get the win on the road again. |
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11-18-15 | Central Michigan v. Kent State +8.5 | 27-14 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 37 m | Show | |
Kent State +8.5 2.2* play I look for Kent State to play a bit of spoiler here. There will be 20-25mph winds which definitely favors the defense for Kent State who does not allow any deep passes. Central Michigan is strictly a passing team they have had major issues running it and will again tonight. If the wind plays a major factor like I think it will this will be going under the already low total of 40 points, and 8.5 points with a very good defense is a place I want my money. I think Kent State will force some turnovers here to set themselves up in good field position as Central Michgian is -4 on the road. Good value on this line, and I expect this game to be an ugly one. |
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11-17-15 | Ball State +9 v. Ohio | 31-48 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
Ball State +9 3.3* play Ohio is a below average team every way you look at it. This is a team that lost to Western Michigan by just as much as Ball State did, but on paper we are looking at a 6-4 team at home vs. a 3-7 team on the road. Ball State has some extra rest here which was not the case in their last game where they had just 4 days to prepare before going on the road to face Western Michigan. I don't know how they do that to these kids, and the result was Ball State missed covering the spread by 32 points. Ohio hosted the same situation last week when Kent State had to go on the road with 4 days of preparation and the result was a 21 point cover by Ohio as they won 27-0. Definitely a good spot to take Ball State with some line value for those reasons alone, but there is more. Ball State is out of the MAC West which has gone 9-4 SU & 8-5 ATS against the MAC East. Take out Eastern Michigan who is 0-3 SU&ATS and you have a 9-1 record and 8-2 ATS. These are not just short term trends these trends go back previous years as well. The recruiting in the MAC West is superior to what teams see out of the MAC East. While Ohio does not necessarily fit that assumption we still feel better in backing Ball State here. Ohio is an average team, and Derrius Vick is having a nice season, but he's not blowing anyone away. 10 TD to 6 INT's, a 134 QB rating, but a 113 in conference play which is a pretty significant drop. He's got just 5 TD to 8 interceptions in conference plays. He's not elite enough to take advantage of Ball State's biggest weakness which is the pass defense. Vick also has -173 rushing yards and just under 400 rushing yards with a less than 2 yards per carry. Not impressive at all. I actually like Ball State's QB a bit better. Riley Neal has 13 TD's to 3 INT's and nearly 400 yards rushing with more than a 4 yard per carry average. Ohio also worse on special teams, and are penalized 7.6 times per game compared with Ball State at 3.8. Ball State RB's have not fumbled the ball once this year just 1 of 9 FBS teams who can claim that. This team seems to be well coached, and I like the extra rest and other situations. I wouldn't be surprised to see an upset considering Ohio is already in a bowl game, and has Northern Illinois next week. |
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11-15-15 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -3 | 39-32 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
Seahawks -3 +104 3* play Haven’t looked like themselves this season, but coming off a bye here. Seahawks facing a 1 dimensional offense in Cardinals. Cardinals are a dome team, and the weather is going to be less than ideal. Seahawks, need a win here big to get back into the playoff race, and they own a significant advantage for home field. |
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11-15-15 | Vikings v. Raiders -3 | Top | 30-14 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
Raiders -3 +100 5.5* NFL POD The Vikings going out west, with a huge look ahead spot as they will host the Packers next week at home. The Vikings have also covered 7 straight games, and asking them to cover an 8th might be a little too much here. Earlier this season the Vikings went out west and lost to the 49ers 20-3. Derek Carr has these Raiders playing like a playoff team, and I would not be shocked to see them get into the playoffs as a Wild Card team considering the weakness of the AFC after the top 3 teams. Oakland’s defensive weaknesses are against the pass, and the Vikings rely on the run much more where the Raiders are ranked 7th. This is a good match up for the Raiders at home. Meanwhile the Vikings rank 6th in passing defense, but they haven’t really faced any elite QB’s and Carr isn’t there yet, but he definitely has a ton of weapons and this passing offense is ranked 4th in adjusted ratings. The Vikings have faced the following passing offenses in adjusted opponent rankings – 27th, 27th, 32, 8th, 30th, 16th, 31st, 15th to put things in perspective. Carr has proven he can play well against good defenses, and he’s proven he can win games himself, Teddy Bridgewater has not come close to proving that. |
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11-15-15 | Panthers v. Titans +4 | 27-10 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
Titans +4 3.3* play Panthers just keep winning, but Panthers just come off two huge wins at home, recent one was against the Packers and the Titans with the changes in their coaching staff. 3 of the Titans 4 loses have been by less than 3 points. Mike Malarkey is a good coach and seemed to have made some small changes that are going to be hard for the Panthers to prepare and adjust. Marcus Mariotta has a 101 QB rating this year against Cam Newton who has an 81 QB rating. So we are getting a better QB, and points at home, and the Titans defense has also played very well ranked top 10, and are 2nd in the league in sack % with a 8.9% rate. |
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11-14-15 | Oklahoma v. Baylor -2.5 | 44-34 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 44 m | Show | |
Baylor -2.5 4.4* play Let’s not get carried away with this Oklahoma team who lost to Texas, the one and only top 50 defense they have played all year. Oklahoma will be facing their stiffest task, and the only reason we have such a low spread for Baylor is the fact that Oklahoma has been covering everything Vegas has thrown at them including a 39 point spread that they covered by 16 points. They have covered their last 4 ATS by a margin of 25.25 points. Baylor comes into this game with a freshmen QB playing in just his second game, and they lost their last 2 games ATS by 13.25 points after the spread. Baylor also struggled with Kansas State last week while Oklahoma blew them out 55-0, but Oklahoma got Kansas State at the right time. Kansas State just nearly upset TCU and gave their all in that game. Kansas State got Baylor during the week, at home with their freshmen QB making his first start on the road. Actually Jarrett Stidham played exceptionally well and showed a lot of poise considering his running game did not help him out. He had a nice day completing 23/33 passes for 419 yards and 3 TD’s. Just like this is the best defense he’s going to face, this is the best offense that Oklahoma is going to face, it’s also the best defense Oklahoma is going to face. Oklahoma has put up 52+ points in each of their last 4 games, but the schedule is a joke facing the following ranked defenses from a yards per play perspective, 103, 119, 127, and 116. This is why nobody can give the Big 12 any credit and I have even been on this conference for a while because of this. Baylor however is one of the exceptions, and their defense is full of next level talent. I just think they get bored out there, but they are well aware of the implications on this game and I believe they are poised to play their best game against Oklahoma who has faced 1 team ranked in the top 50 in defense and that was Texas ranked 46th in yards per play allowed and we all know how that turned out. Baylor is ranked 36th. Game of the year line before the season was 13 in favor of Baylor, and opened at 7. We are getting tremendous value here and Baylor has played Oklahoma well on defense the last few years. They haven’t been a favorite of less than a TD at home in over 3 years, and are 19-4 ATS in their last 23 despite that fact. Looking for Baylor to come away with a big impressive performance. |
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11-14-15 | BYU v. Missouri +6.5 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 72 h 25 m | Show |
Missouri +6.5 5.5* POD / Missouri +220 1* play Last week I played on the Tigers at home against Miss State, and it didn’t look bad at the half 14-13, but they went on to struggle in the second half, couldn’t get off the field, but there was a positive that came out of the game. The running game was excellent rushing for 200+ yards, and Missouri is 10-4-1 ATS following a performance like that in their last 15. They are also 18-7 ATS following an ATS loss, they are 2-7 ATS on the season. We could not be getting more value at the right time. I also think this team will play inspired football considering they were getting ready to boycott this game, because of the racial injustice on their campus. The President was fired and Missouri will have all their players and I think it’s pretty ironic they go up against BYU that is well known for their anti-gay policy in Prov which is part of their school code. I don’t even know if any of the players know about that, but if Gary Pinkel is smart he brings it up. Either way this team is going to be happy and inspired to get back on the field and not take anything for granted. They also need wins here to get back to a bowl game. BYU on the other hand has issues on their offensive line and a couple of guys are questionable. That’s a big problem against Missouri who is 14th in pass rush, BYU 81st in protecting their QB. They are even worse on the road and this game will be played at the Chiefs football stadium Arrowhead. Still a home game for Missouri that I expect them to win with their running game. BYU is allowing 4.9 yards per carry on the road 3.9 overall similar to Miss State. BYU’s offense not nearly as good as Miss State, and they have an inexperienced QB that Missouri can force turnovers with. I may play the money line here as well, but I really like the Tigers in this match up. |
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11-14-15 | Kentucky +3.5 v. Vanderbilt | 17-21 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 44 m | Show | |
Kentucky +3.5 3.3* play I really like Kentucky in this spot not only are we getting value, because they haven’t been close to covering any of their last 5 games with the exception of Auburn, a game they should have covered and won, but they are coming off one of their worst performances, losing 27-3 to Georgia last week. Kentucky did not have their best offensive player in that game in Boom Williams which to me is a huge deal. He’s probably for this week and if he plays and they give him 15+ carries Kentucky will win this game. Boom Williams is the best SEC RB that nobody has heard of. He’s definitely the best RB that Vanderbilt has faced since week 2 when they faced Nick Chubb and allowed Georgia to run wild for 281 yards. Vanderbilt’s run defense has quietly been average allowing 4.38 yards per carry in conference play. Kentucky has to be smart here with their offense due to the struggles of Patrick Towles and with Williams back, and a bowl game on the line I think they will do just that. Vanderbilt on the other hand is in a brutal stretch 5 of their last 6 games on the road including 3 of the last 4 without a bye week. This is a tough tough spot coming off an emotional loss down at Florida a game they nearly had pulled the great upset. I’m expecting a close game because Vanderbilt does have a very good defense, but Kentucky’s defense has played well too, and Vanderbilt’s offense is arguably the worst in the nation. Vanderbilt is very much like Missouri, and Kentucky handled Missouri pretty well. Vanderbilt has huge issues in the kicking game and is the worst red zone offense in the country with 38% TD percentage 28% in conference play and 61% scoring percentage. Compare that with Kentucky’s 89%. Kentucky also plays good defense in the red zone allowing just 51% TD’s in conference play. Kentucky has also struggled with turnovers, but wouldn’t you know it Vanderbilt has out done them turning the ball over 5 more times. I just think this is a perfect value spot for Kentucky who has more to play for with Charlotte on deck there is a good chance they go to bowl game with a win here. USF +8.5 TEASER w/ FLORIDA GATORS -1.5 4.4* PLAY Two top 50 defenses meet on Saturday night, this is a huge game for South Florida who wants to announce they are back to being a solid team. This team has definitely flown under the radar and can pull within 1 game with a win here in their AAC division. At this point Temple is over rated in my opinion we were lucky to cover the spread in the Notre Dame game, and their 19 forced turnovers have really saved them in spots like the Cinci game. This is a difficult trip playing at night as well, and I expect a very tight game as South Florida has only 11 turnovers on the season. South Florida also very efficient on offense with the running game ranking 21st, and a passing game that can beat you when they want. Quinton Flowers has done a great job, he’s a mobile QB, something that Temple has had issues with and Marlon Mack is arguably the best RB in this conference. Temple has not played well on the road -36 yards per game, South Florida +137 per game and recent common opponent on the road of East Carolina shoed South Florida at +222 yards, and Temple at -56. Getting over a TD I really like this team when you tease them. Florida Gators -1.5 I really like the Gators in this spot. They really need another impressive win to get back on the college football playoff comitee’s radar and South Carolina has been playing better so this is a perfect spot for them to do so. This line has already moved 3 points in our favor from 10.5 down to 7.5 and I’m going to move it 6 more. The value is already there with Florida failing to look impressive against Vanderbilt last week, but a lot of teams have failed vs. Vanderbilt who has a really good defense. South Carolina does not have a good defense ranking 107th vs. the run, and 81st vs. the pass in S&P ratings. The last 3 opponents for Florida on the road were balanced to very good defenses. 30/1, 113/17 (Kentucky), and 19/7 (LSU). South Carolina has allowed every opponent to run for 150+ yards, and 5 to rush for over 200. That sets things up for Florida to have a very good game here offensively and they should not lose with everything in front of them. Last week was a good game for them to wake up and I will remind everyone that in that game they were a bit flat coming off their best performance of the year against Georgia, in their biggest rivalry game. I have a lot faith and trust in Jim McElwain and I just don’t think this South Carolina team can match the intensity that Florida will bring in this game. Florida has every edge overall, and in conference play from third down offense, defense to red zone offense and defense and TO margin. They are even significant advantages I would say and Florida has had a tougher overall schedule. South Carolina has been playing better of late, but that’s just giving us value here. |
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11-14-15 | Utah State v. Air Force +1.5 | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 67 h 52 m | Show | |
Air Force +1.5 4.4* play Utah State lost last week to New Mexico. New Mexico is ranked 93rd in stopping the run and held Utah State to 78 yards on 37 carries. That is a major red flag as Utah State needs to run the ball to win averaging 5.32 yards per carry in their wins and just 3.13 in losses. The problem is this team has struggled on the road 3.50 yards per carry and rank 96th in adjusted rushing yard stats. They face an Air Force run defense that is very good actually this Air Force defense overall is very good, but 34th in adjusted run defense which is the key here. Air Force went on the road against Michigan State and held them under 2 yards per carry. I think they are capable of holding Utah State in check here. Air Force has held every opponent under 160 yards rushing with the exception of Navy (loss 33-11), and Utah State when held under 160 yards are 0-4 on the season. Make it 0-5 in my opinion. Air Force running game as typically struggled against Utah State, but there are a lot of red flags that this Utah State’s run defense is not as good. They have allowed 11 rushing TD’s in their last 4 games alone (Air Force run defense has allowed 9 all season). Utah State’s run defense has allowed 2 games of 270+ yards rushing in their last 3 games overall and both against a 59th ranked defense and 48th. Air Force 2nd in the nation in running the ball and are definitely more capable at home with a 5.5 yard per carry average. They have in the past struggled against this defense, but I think playing at home and the fact that Utah State is allowing 75% conversions of TD’s in the red zone in conference play 71% overall is a huge factor. Utah State is also -5 TO margin on the road, Air Force is +5. Air Force also strong advantages on 3rd down offense and defense, and in the red zone as we mentioned. They are also being penalized nearly 3 times less than Utah State, and special teams efficiency is about even with Utah State ranking 37th and Air Force coming in at 42nd. I would expect the home field advantage to give Air Force the advantage there as well. Take Air Force to win this weekend. |
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11-14-15 | Georgia +2 v. Auburn | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 65 h 57 m | Show | |
Georgia +2 3.3* Auburn is off a huge win over Texas A&M last week on the road. I’m not surprised at all that they went on the road as a 7 point dog and win outright by 16 points covering the spread by 23 and I think a huge adjustment in this week’s line has already been made. This was a good match up for Auburn as A&M was 115th vs. the run, and for Auburn to have success right now they have to run the ball, but stopping the run and running the ball this week will not be an advantage they enjoy. That goes to Georgia who actually has the better and more balanced defense, and the running game that is much better. I took a look at what each team did overall and in conference and Georgia is ranked 12th running the ball in the country averaging 5.6 yards per carry, 5.18 in conference play, they go up against the Auburn run defense that ranks 70th in yards per carry defense and also has given up 19 TD’s 13 in 6 conference games. This could be a huge game for Georgia who struggled with their running game for a while after the Chubb game (2 games), but have been able to coach around it implementing the wild cat with Sony Michael. Georgia has out gained the opposing run defense average in 6 of their 8 games and sometimes doubling it. We saw Auburn’s defense hold opponents under in 6 of 8 games, but not in dominating fashion and LSU ran all over them. For Auburn who runs the ball 65% of the time they need to run the ball averaging over a yard per carry more in their wins than their losses. The problem is they are only averaging 4.10 yards per carry on the season and have been worse of late and just 3.98 in conference play. Auburn’s rushing offense has faced an average 53rd ranked defense, and Saturday they face the 30th ranked defense. Auburn has ran for more yards per carry vs. the opposing run defense just 3 out of their 8 games while Georgia’s defense has held opposing rushing offenses under their season average in 7 of 8 games. In adjusted run defense according to football outsiders Georgia ranks 25th while Auburn ranks 76th. Auburn ranks 57th in adjusted rushing offense, but Georgia comes in at 7th. Georgia is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games I think this line has some value and their defense certainly played better last week holding Kentucky to 180 yards and 3 points. Auburn’s defense played well but still allowed 300+ yards and were lucky to get 3 interceptions. Auburn’s third down defense not very good and they were lucky they allowed just 10 points as A&M converted 10 of 16 third downs. I am worried about Georgia’s turnovers, but if they play a clean game like they are capable of they should win this game by a TD or more USF +8.5 TEASER w/ FLORIDA GATORS -1.5 4.4* PLAY Two top 50 defenses meet on Saturday night, this is a huge game for South Florida who wants to announce they are back to being a solid team. This team has definitely flown under the radar and can pull within 1 game with a win here in their AAC division. At this point Temple is over rated in my opinion we were lucky to cover the spread in the Notre Dame game, and their 19 forced turnovers have really saved them in spots like the Cinci game. This is a difficult trip playing at night as well, and I expect a very tight game as South Florida has only 11 turnovers on the season. South Florida also very efficient on offense with the running game ranking 21st, and a passing game that can beat you when they want. Quinton Flowers has done a great job, he’s a mobile QB, something that Temple has had issues with and Marlon Mack is arguably the best RB in this conference. Temple has not played well on the road -36 yards per game, South Florida +137 per game and recent common opponent on the road of East Carolina shoed South Florida at +222 yards, and Temple at -56. Getting over a TD I really like this team when you tease them. Florida Gators -1.5 I really like the Gators in this spot. They really need another impressive win to get back on the college football playoff comitee’s radar and South Carolina has been playing better so this is a perfect spot for them to do so. This line has already moved 3 points in our favor from 10.5 down to 7.5 and I’m going to move it 6 more. The value is already there with Florida failing to look impressive against Vanderbilt last week, but a lot of teams have failed vs. Vanderbilt who has a really good defense. South Carolina does not have a good defense ranking 107th vs. the run, and 81st vs. the pass in S&P ratings. The last 3 opponents for Florida on the road were balanced to very good defenses. 30/1, 113/17 (Kentucky), and 19/7 (LSU). South Carolina has allowed every opponent to run for 150+ yards, and 5 to rush for over 200. That sets things up for Florida to have a very good game here offensively and they should not lose with everything in front of them. Last week was a good game for them to wake up and I will remind everyone that in that game they were a bit flat coming off their best performance of the year against Georgia, in their biggest rivalry game. I have a lot faith and trust in Jim McElwain and I just don’t think this South Carolina team can match the intensity that Florida will bring in this game. Florida has every edge overall, and in conference play from third down offense, defense to red zone offense and defense and TO margin. They are even significant advantages I would say and Florida has had a tougher overall schedule. South Carolina has been playing better of late, but that’s just giving us value here. |
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11-11-15 | Bowling Green v. Western Michigan +3 | 41-27 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
[b]Western Mich +3 4.3* NCAAF POD[/b] I'm going to take Western Michigan here, as the value is just too high on Bowling Green. I would argue the wrong team is favored here. I do not think Bowling Green on a neutral field is a 6 point favorite, and the MAC West division teams are always better than the MAC East. With that said Western Michigan has had the stronger schedule. I also thinkg Bowling Green 4-0 ATS their last 4 games are due with an inflated line. I faded them last week and lost, but the final score of 62-24 was not even close to telling the full story. Bowling Green has now made Vegas look like fools as they have been off by 12.5, 36.5, and 35, and 17.5. I know we are getting value here with Western Michigan and I think they just win the game here tonight. Western Michigan is the more balanced offense and arguably the most balanced offense that Bowling Green has faced year to date. They also in my opinion have the better defense. Just look at what they did against Ohio on the road vs. what Bowling Green did against Ohio last week at home giving up over 500 yards. Western Michigan has some serious talent at WR in Daniel Braverman who I don't think Bowling Green will have an answer for. Western Michigan is also 17th in the nation at running the ball, and they have just 3 turnovers in their last 6 games. They will control the clock tonight and not make mistakes which will be the key to winning this game. Ohio possessed the ball for 37 minutes last week and 299 yards rushing, but lost the game. I expect Western Michigan to do a better job in this one. No disrespect to Matt Johnson or Bowling Green, but I just like Western Michigan a bit more. The biggest key here for me that made this a POD on the money line. Western Michigan penalized just 5 times per game while Bowling Green sits at 9.2 per game. Western Michigan is ranked 29th in special teams efficiency and Bowling Green is ranked 113th. The little things will decide the game, and I think this spread should have been a pk or small favors for Western Michigan. I'll take this value every time. |
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11-10-15 | Toledo v. Central Michigan +4.5 | 28-23 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
Central Michigan +4 3.3* play We have a few things working for us in this match up between a couple of MAC teams still in contention for the MAC West title. Central Michigan is home and an under dog over a key number of 3. They have faced a very challenging schedule early in non-conference play with Oklahoma State, Michigan State, and Syracuse. Toledo ranks 115th having faced and beat Arkansas early, but gave up 500+ yards in doing so. Central Michigan has a few extra days to prepare for this game while Toledo is in a look ahead spot coming off a crushing loss to Northern Illinois. Toledo will get Bowling Green next week, and it's a look ahead because they have taken care of the Chippewas with 5 straight wins, and none of those have been close. Toledo does not know what it's like to lose to this team, but they may find out tonight. Really both these teams are one dimensional on offense, but I think the home team benefits the most form this. Central Michigan is good with their passing game led by QB Cooper Rush who is arguably the most under rated QB in the nation ranking 26th in QB rating. Toledo is one of the best teams running the ball and have done so successfully even in their loss against Northern Illinois last week, but Phillip Ely really is not a good QB. He's inaccurate and has 5 interceptions over the last two weeks. When looking at which defense will step up it's clear that Central Michigan has faced a lot more quality running teams than Toledo has faced passing teams. Toledo has faced just 2 teams inside the top 85 in passer rating and both are more well known for their running game in Northern Illinois and Arkansas. Cooper Rush has a ton of options at his disposal, and will be at home where his offensive line has done a better job protecting. This is just Toledo's third road game, they have a 1.42 sack % on the road, and I think they'll have issues tonight. I do expect this game to be close, but.. Central Michigan is a tough team to beat, and I still think Toledo is getting too much credit from the odds makers. Toledo is very heavily penalized 8.4 per game, 10.7 on the road compared to 6.6 for the Chippewas, and they are -2 TO margin on the road, -3 in conference play compared with +5 at home, +4 conference for the Chippewas. The Chippewas also very good on third down holding opponents to 32%, and in the red zone holding opponents to 51% TD's, 38% at home, 37.5% in conference play and have already beaten Northern Illinois. The key is whether or not they can get Toledo into passing down situations, and I believe they can they rank 51st vs. the run, 2.8 ypc allowed over their last 3 games so they are getting better, and have allowed 3.36 at home this year. The schedule does not indicate the type of running teams they have faced, but Syracuse, Michigan State, Oklahoma State, and Northern Illinois all good running teams. |
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11-08-15 | Redskins +14 v. Patriots | 10-27 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 30 m | Show | |
Redskins +14 3.3* play The Redskins off the bye week, the Patriots may be peaking ahead to the Giants game to be honest, but I also like the fact that the Redskins are a tough defense although they have a weakness vs. the run which means you know the Patriots will flip the switch and run the ball. I also think their offensive line that's banged up is bound to catch up with them. Redskins are healthy here getting some offensive weapon back, and I like the fact the Redskins will be running the ball a lot shortening the game which gives 14 points a ton of value. Of course I would not be surprised to see the Patriots win and cover, but long term double digit favorites is a definitely losing proposition in the NFL market. |
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11-08-15 | Packers -2.5 v. Panthers | Top | 29-37 | Loss | -113 | 68 h 40 m | Show |
Packers -2.5 5.5* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR This is a classic situation where an NFL team got badly beat on prime time TV last week with the Broncos dominating the Packers. Now they go on the road against a team that's undefeated and just won in OT on Monday. If you have been following me you know I have been fading the Panthers and losing, and if they win again this week well I'll be okay with it, but I see the Packers getting all these headlines of can't win a big game and I think Aaron Rodgers will be ready for this. The Panthers defense showed some weaknesses late in the game against the Colts that Rodgers can exploit for sure. I also like the fact that the Panthers went to OT, and are on short rest here. Their offense is not very good and very predictable at this point with no real WR threats. Absolutely love the Packers here as it's my favorite play of the year! |
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11-07-15 | California v. Oregon -3.5 | 28-44 | Win | 102 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Oregon -3.5 +100 3* play Oregon is simply a different team with Vernon Adams in there at QB. The last two road games for Cal has given up 70 points to teams that don't have as good of offense as Oregon has or is capable of. We have seen Oregon's offense kick it into high gear since Adams has returned. Adams in back to back road wins has 6 TD 's and 1 INT, coming back home will typically mean good things! Cal was home last week against USC and played extremely well with USC in a difficult spot, but again they could not win. We actually gave Cal out as a play last week and got a push at +6, but I think they are in big trouble here on the road against Oregon. The 13 turnovers in conference play won't help them either, take the Ducks. |
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11-07-15 | Michigan State v. Nebraska +6 | 38-39 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Nebraska +4 2.2* play Listen Nebraska is not nearly as bad as they have looked, Michigan State coming off the bye week, but haven't played well on the road. I like Nebraska as a shocking upset here today. This is essentially the Cornhuskers playoff game sure they get Iowa at the end of the season, but this is the game Nebraska wants and needs if they are going to get back to a bowl game they have to win out. |
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11-07-15 | Wisconsin v. Maryland +12 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 40 h 46 m | Show |
Maryland +11.5 5.5* play I like the value we are getting here with the Terrapins who have been playing great football since firing their head coach. Maryland also has faced the #1 toughest schedule compared to Wisconsin at 82. They have been one of the unluckiest teams in the country as well and have -9 TO’s in their last 2 games otherwise they could have taken down Iowa or Penn State. Maryland has had a tough schedule as well facing Iowa, Penn State, Ohio State , Michigan, Bowling Green and West Virginia, but this is home coming week they still have a shot at a bowl game and Wisconsin comes in over hyped off a huge win against Rutgers. Wisconsin also not very good at forcing turnovers 13 on the season, just 6 interceptions which should give Maryland a shot here. Ironically Wisconsin is not the better running team in this game as Maryland is ranked 36th in yards per carry compared to Wisconsin who is ranked 63rd. Maryland has rushed for 5 yards per carry in each of their last 3 games against some very good defenses in Penn State (30th run defense), Iowa (7th run defense), Ohio State (33rd run defense). The dual threat QB with Perry Hills should give Wisconsin some issues on the road seeing as though they are allowing 5.62 yards per carry on the road, and the last time they faced something close to a dual threat QB in Nebraska they gave up 5.30 yards per carry. So I expect Maryland to stay in this game, their pass defense is better than stats have shown as they have given up big games to Bowling Green (3rd in QB rating), West Virginia, Ohio State (29th QB rating), Penn State (48th). Other than those games this team has been very good against the pass, and their run defense is very under rated allowing 2.8 ypc in their last 3 games, and 3.32 in conference eplay. Of course we know that Wisconsin wants to run the ball, and many would suspect they are back after their performance a week ago with Corey Clement returning to action with 115 yards on 11 carries. However, Rutgers 105th in rushing YPC, and they allow over 6 on the road Wisconsin had just 5.5. Otherwise this rushing offense has not been good just 2 TD’s in 3 road games, and a 3.42 ypc average, 3.69 in conference play. Take the Terrapins here with good value. |
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11-07-15 | Cincinnati +8.5 v. Houston | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 40 h 39 m | Show | |
Cincinnati +8.5 4.4* play I love the Bearcats in this spot, they were supposed to be the favorites in this conference yet they come into this game at 5-3 and have had to overcome adversity in multiple scenarios this year which have made them a better team. I really think they come into this game with a chip on their shoulder, and hungry for a chance to get back into this race. You could argue they have played 3 or 4 teams that are better than Houston. They played Memphis, Temple, Miami, and BYU losing 3 of the 4. Their game against Temple they absolutely should have won as they were +262 yards in that game, but turned the ball over 5 times which is a big key in this game. If the Bearcats can be no more than -1 TO in this game there is no way they don’t cover the spread in my opinion. They will have a shot to win this game. They are -9 on the season, Houston +15 biggest thing that separates these two teams, but Cincinnati has cleaned it up with only 3 turnovers in their last 4 games. Strength of schedule means a lot here. Houston has played Louisville and that’s about it. Louisville with a nice defense, but absolutely no offense. There is a lot to like about this match up when you consider the hype Houston is getting, and the fact that they most certainly are looking past a 5-3 team and towards the showdown with Memphis next week. Houston has the 123rd toughest schedule, and I don’t think I would call it tough. Here are the defenses Houston has faced since Louisville, 127, 113, 119, 87, 117, 40 (Vanderbilt 4 TO’s, no offense). I’m not saying the Bearcats have a good defense, but they have a better offense than any of these teams, and they are great on third down allowing 24% conversions, they are also great in the red zone and have improved on defense as the season has gone along. Cinci is tested too holding Memphis and BYU on the road to 5-22 on third downs. I also think this line is inflated the last 3 games Houston has gotten into the rankings by covering the spread and then some. Their last 3 games have a MOV ATS of 23, 28, and 14 that is sure to get you too much credit the following week. I mentioned Cinci’s offense which is ranked 9th in yards per play. Here is a look at the offenses Houston has faced 108, 84, 38 (absolutely no defense), 95 (allowed 28 points), 120, 122, 117. This team relies on pressuring the QB and forcing turnovers ranked #1 in both. Cinci is 38th in protecting their QB, but probably better with Kiel in there, since he missed a few games Hayden Moore. Moore much less experienced took 11 sacks in 159 passing attempts compared to Kiel who took 3 in 162. |
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11-07-15 | TCU v. Oklahoma State +5 | 29-49 | Win | 100 | 40 h 33 m | Show | |
Oklahoma St +4.5 3.3* play Both teams come into this game undefeated, both teams have had weak schedules with similar results. The only difference is the fact that TCU is coming off two big victories and Oklahoma Stat gave up 53 points at Texas Tech, and TCU bias before the season. Those are the reasons TCU is favored, but I can tell you the defenses this team has faced have been awful ranking 96th in total yards allowed, 97, 84, 103, 127, 121, and 25th (Minnesota – 23 points). Oklahoma State ranks 41st and is very good at home against the pass and the run. They also possess a top ranked pass rush ranking 4th in sack %, and have forced 19 turnovers. TCU will struggle in this game, and I see Boykin making a couple of mistakes. They haven’t faced a single pass rush like this, and Oklahoma State has been known to pull upsets in Stillwater. I also like the fact that the Cowboys are ranked 14th in special teams efficiency and are better in tackles for loss, and in turnover margin as well as penalties per game. The little things make the difference. I still feel like too much stock is been given into last week. Oklahoma State gave up 53 to Texas Tech on the road while TCU gave up 52. There is plenty to like about both defenses, but home field advantage is on the side of the Cowboys. Remember in 2013 they beat #13 Baylor 49-17 here as a 7.5 point underdog. **TEASER - BAMA -0.5 AT HOME, FLORIDA ST +17 ON THE ROAD ANALYSIS BELOW Alabama -0.5 Teaser I like Alabama at home here for various reasons. First of all when Alabama loses they lose due to the opposing QB play. The last 6 times this team has been beaten they have given up 17 TD’s and just 2 interceptions. LSU runs the ball 70% of the time which falls right into what Alabama wants to do. Alabama is #3 in stopping the run, and they are at home here. They have held each team under their season average with the exception of Georgia who had 1 carry for 83 yards which have tipped the numbers and that game was on the road and in garbage time. The other thing I like about Alabama is they have faced a far tougher schedule and this is just LSU’s third road game and they struggled in both their other two against Miss State early in the season, a team replacing a ton of guys on both sides of the ball, and Syracuse (enough said). LSU has faced 1 top 50 offense in SEC play, meanwhile Alabama has faced 5 who rank in the top 50 in yards per play. LSU has only faced 2 defenses ranked in the top 50 in yards per play allowed, Alabama has faced 4. Alabama should be able to hold u for all 4 quarters, while I don’t trust LSU who rank 34th overall in adjusted defense, but 114th in the third quarter 47th in the 4th. Florida State +17 Teaser I love teasing these primetime games, because the lines are definitely sharp with Vegas taking so much action. In both cases I believe we are getting value. Clemson is everyone’s favorite team right now and while I have huge respect for them this conference still goes through Florida State. Florida State is getting healthy at the right time, and I think they will have plenty of options in the running game. On the flip side Florida State’s defense will keep them in this game. This is the most complete and balanced team Clemson has faced all year long with the exception of maybe Notre Dame, who should have beaten Clemson in reality in their own building. I believe Florida State’s defense is a bit better than Notre Dame while the offense is a bit behind, but very comparable. Florida State has just 2 turnovers all year, and I see no reason for that changing while Clemson has 14 including 1 in every single game. |
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11-07-15 | Marshall v. Middle Tennessee State -2.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
[b]MTSU -2.5 4.4* PLAY[/b] The Blue Raiders sit at 3-5, and need this win to stay alive in the bowl hunt. They face a 7-1 Marshall team, but are favorites. Public backing Marshall of course, but I like Middle Tennessee we backed them 2 weeks ago, and lost, but that was on the road while now they have extra rest, Marshall dosn't and they will be at home where they have only lost to Vanderbilt, but should have won. This is a balanced offense and the best that Marshall has faced all year. Look at their schedule Marshall has not faced a singl offense as good as Middle Tennessee. I expect the extra time, and the fact that Marshall hasn't played anyone to play huge dividends for the Blue Raiders. |
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11-07-15 | Duke +7.5 v. North Carolina | 31-66 | Loss | -106 | 36 h 5 m | Show | |
DUKE +7.5 3.3** I really like Duke here with revenge on their mind from last year’s home beating 45-20 to North Carolina who had 593 yards of offense in that game. That game was still closer than the final score, and Duke’s defense is much improved this year as is North Carolina’s, but I think Duke’s defense is the real deal. Duke ranks 6th in yards per play, and this is by far the best defense that North Carolina has faced, and I also think the strengths of each defense gives Duke the advantage, because North Carolina is 70th vs. the run and this is very good for Duke, because when they have faced teams ranked 61st or worse vs. the run they average 37.4 ppg and that has happened 5 times this season. Duke, also much more balanced ranking 8th in run defense, and 17th in pass defense. North Carolina, does have 2 extra days to prepare, and I’m definitely factoring that in here, but this is a big rivalry game, Duke’s players are saying everything right the week after the refs cost them a win against Miami. In reality that game did not matter is what they said this is the game that matters and the winner is likely to go on to face Clemson in the ACC Championship game. I also like the advantage in the passing game for Duke. Marqise Williams definitely prone to the interception with 7 on the year and he will be forced into some situations where everyone will know he’s passing which is not good. It will be interesting to see how the Tar Heels adjust when they are not able to run the ball. They’ve only faced 1 team in the top 60 in run defense. UNC also scores with big plays, Duke one of the best in limiting big plays ranking 16th in isoPPP+. North Carolina is getting a lot of credit here from the oddsmakers and I’m not buying it. The improved defense is the main reason why and Gene Chizik definitely deserves some credit, but the red flag is there in their run defense, and not to mention the last 4 opponents are ranked 111th, 119th, 92nd, and 90th in yards per play. Duke by no means is great on offense, but they have already played in games against good defenses and prevailed. They also get a UNC run defense that’s not very good and that should help them greatly. Other key stats in this game like 3rd downs and red zone are a wash, but where Duke has an advantage are in penalties per game, they have a major advantage on special teams ranking 2nd in the nation in special teams efficiency. They are +34 in tackles for loss, they have 27 more tackles for loss than North Carolina who is +4 in tackles for loss which just goes to show you that this Duke team is for real on defense. They are also +10 in sacks while UNC is +1. |
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11-05-15 | Mississippi State v. Missouri +8 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
Missouri +8 5.5* NCAAF POD The perception on the Missouri Tigers could not be any lower at the moment. They scored 3, 6, and 3 points in their last 3 SEC games, but those were all against top 40 defenses and arguably 3 of the top 5 defenses in the SEC in Vanderbilt, Georgia, and Florida. With that said Miss State still has a very good defense ranking 32nd in total yards allowed, but they haven't exactly had the toughest schedule. The perception is that this team is as good as last year, but that simply is not true. I also like the fact that Missouri is coming off the bye week which allows them to come up with a few schemes that should help the offense as we all know they need it. Miss State really does not need to scheme as they feel good about themselves putting up 40+ points in each of their last 3 games. Miss State is about to face the best defense they have faced all year. The 40+ points in their last 3 is way inflated. They have played Kentucky ranked in 90th in defense, Louisiana Tech and Troy. Missouri is ranked 3rd in yards per play allowed, and they'll be at home. MIss State struggled in their other 3 games vs. SEC opponents who also had bad defenses (exception LSU), putting up 17 against Auburn and Texas A&M. We have an extremely low total here with Vegas expecting a low scoring game, and giving 8 points to the dog with the better defense I'll jump on board every time. Miss |
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11-04-15 | Ohio +20 v. Bowling Green | 24-62 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
Ohio +20.5 3.3* play I really like the line value we are getting here on the Bobcats, a well coached team. First of all they come off two loses ATS where they were not even close to covering. The odds makers were off by 27 and 38.5 points where Ohio missed covering the spread. To avoid this they have inflated this number against Bowling Green, because they are coming off 3 straight covers and in their last 2 have covered the spread by 35 and 36 points. Ohio was not as bad as they looked in their last road game against Buffalo losing 41-17 as a road favorite. They were -4 in the turnover margin game, which rarely happens as they are still +5 on the season. Ohio can throw the football, and I feel it's a good match up against Bowling Green who is 113th vs. the pass. Vick should have a very nice game here against Bowling Green's pass defense. Ohio is top 50 in completion % and passing yards and I feel they will be able to put up enough points to cover this large spread. Bowling Green also can throw the ball, but that matches right up against Ohio's strength on defense which is its pass defense. Bowling Green will go up against Ohio's pass defense which has allowed 6 passing TD's all year with 9 interceptions. They have not allowed over 300 yards passing to any QB's all year and while I think Matt Johnson will throw over 300 yards he will not look great doing so. Johnson has been sacked already 24 times this year and goes up against Ohio's 19th ranked pass defense, this may be the best pass defense he has faced, and this is a team that's not all that balanced as their rushing attack leaves a lot to be desired. Bowling Green also the more penalized team here with 9.3 per game which is a lot, but what also concerns me is the fact that they are 114th in special teams efficiency while Ohio comes in at 60th, and committing just 5.8 penalties per conference game. Bowling Green also goes up against a top 40 third down defense for just the 3rd time all year and they lost the other two. Ohio allowing 32% conversions, and it has trickled over to their red zone defense which has allowed 42% TD conversions in the red zone and 35% in conference play. A lot to like about Ohio catching 21 points here. |
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11-03-15 | Northern Illinois +7 v. Toledo | Top | 32-27 | Win | 100 | 3 h 43 m | Show |
Northern Illinois +7 4.4* NCAAF POD All three of Northern Illinois losses have been on the road, but they haven't played necessarily bad in those games and if for nothing less it gives us value in what is their biggest game of the year going up against Toledo who is 7-0 SU & ATS. Vegas has to inflate these numbers, because of what this team has done, and to be honest their schedule is not nearly as challenging as Northern Illinois who had to face Ohio State nearly upset them, and Boston College, one of the best defenses in the nation on the road. Northern Illinois covered both of those spreads. Meanwhile Toledo faced Arkansas and really got a ton of credit for that win, but Arkansas should have won that game. I don't know many teams with 500 yards of total offense who score 12 points, but that's what happened to Arkansas as they out gained Toledo by 200. Same thing against Iowa state which is very unimpressive of Toledo who actually got to host this game. They were out gained by nearly 200 yards again and somehow they won. Northern Illinois had two non-conference games as true road games Toledo did not. Perception is definitely off on this Toledo team in my opinion as they continue to get a lot of hype because they are still undefeated, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that change tonight. Northern Illinois has been here before 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 road games, and have extra time to prepare for Toledo who is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 with extra prep time. Both teams need to run the ball to be successful, and Kareem Hunt is a very good RB for Toledo, but he's just not the same guy with those injuries. Northern Illinois has the better RB here with Joel Bouagnon and Jordan Huff. Their run defense has also been better ranking 29th in the nation and the only time they allowed more than 4 yards per carry was against Ohio State on the road. Ohio State actually only had 162 yards rushing in the game, which is a season low for them. Toledo's run defense has a lot of red flags they are allowing 4.17 yards per carry in conference play. A conference schedule that has not featured anyone worth talking about as their 4 opponents have a combined 8-26 record. They just got done allowing 400 total rushing yards in their last 2 games alone to Eastern Michigan and Umass who is 114th in the nation in rushing yards. Toledo's passing game is also a bit shaky here with 5 interceptions in 4 conference games and Northern Illinois has a secondary featuring Shawn Lurry who leads the nation in interceptions. Overall, it's a pretty even match up between passing offenses, but Northern Illinois seems to be a better team with just 5.8 penalties per game making 3rd downs certainly easier, and Toledo comes in with an amazing 9.8 penalties per game. That's coaching, and I know Matt Campbell is getting a ton of praise, but you are not going to win this game with that type of a performance. Both teams are good in the red zone on defense, and it will be huge to see which offense can convert better. On the season Northern Illinois has been a bit better at 80% while Toledo comes in at 63%. Overall no significant edge, and we get a TD to play with in a game where both defenses are holding opposing teams to under 50% in the red zone for TD%. I like my chances in this one with an inflated line it's hard for any team to move to 8-0 ATS, and I'm guessing Toledo won't be able to do it tonight in what should be a low scoring game. |
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11-02-15 | Colts +6 v. Panthers | Top | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
Colts +6 5.5* NFL POD The Colts are 17-4 ATS following a loss with Andrew Luck at QB which is good enough for me with an over rated Panthers team. Panthers are undefeated still, but rank 27th in total yards, and Cam Newton continues to throw the ball with some of the worst mechanics I have ever seen. At some point he is just going to be unlucky. I also think it's a difficult spot after a prime time win over the Eagles on Sunday night football last week and they will get Green Bay at home next week as a look ahead. I don't think the Colts have to do too much to cover this spread. I'm not taking anything away from the Panthers defense, but they are going to go up against the best QB they have faced yet. |
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11-01-15 | Giants v. Saints -3 | 49-52 | Push | 0 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
Saints -3 3.3* play The Giants are coming off a huge divisional victory at home, and now they go on the road to face the Saints who if you look at their schedule can get back into the playoff race. The Giants extremely fortunate to cover last week and we certainly benefited from the pick 6 and kick off return TD. On paper it looks like a nice win for the Giants, but this team is below average. Meanwhile the Saints went on the road and beat the Colts which is impressive and that defense is playing much better than they were earlier in the season. |
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11-01-15 | Bengals v. Steelers +1 | Top | 16-10 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
Steelers -1 5.5* NFL POD Big Ben returns, but the Bengals are off the bye and looking unstoppable and continue to get a lot of respect in the betting market, but I'm not completely sold on this Bengals team. The Steelers offense is extremely explosive and has really flown under the radar. This is the first week they are completely healthy it seems. In the beginning of the year the Steelers challenged the Patriots Andy Dalton has a hard time against the Steelers, 79.2 QB rating in 8 career games and the Bengals are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 meetings with the Steelers. Red flag is the fact that the Bengals have not faced a top 10 rusher with the exception of Jamal Charles who averaged over 6 yards per carry and they rank 28th in yards per carry. Pittsburgh 4th running the ball 4.7 yards per carry. This is a perfect scenario for Big Ben come come back to with Laveon Bell running the ball Big Ben can operate with balance. Also Bengals defense on the road in the red zone not very good 83% red zone TD% allowed. Pittsburgh's defense has played much better here at home allowing 40% and even held the high flying Cardinal offense to 13 points. I love the fact that the Steelers are off a loss which gives us additional line value. On the flip side the Steelers are very good in the red zone especially at home as you might expect with a balanced offense. So are the Bengals, but I think they are very one dimensional on offense. They have talented running backs, but rank 20th in yards per carry. |
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10-31-15 | Notre Dame v. Temple +11 | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 45 h 33 m | Show |
Temple +11 5.5* NCAAF POD I think it’s pretty clear that every time Notre Dame steps on the field they are going to have an inflated point spread, and I think that’s definitely clear against Temple here. There is no doubt that Notre Dame has some momentum coming in, but they haven’t faced a defense like this all year with the exception of Clemson, a game on the road that they lost, but could have won. The problem in that game is they started the game sluggish, and they have been notorious to getting off to slow starts. The problem is they can’t afford that here against Temple who has very good coaching behind Matt Rhule. This Temple team has outscored opponents 137 to 29 in the second half this year and there is no better sign of a good coach. Temple also should be able to move the ball enough to cover this spread with Jahad Thomas having already proved against Penn State that he can run the ball against top defenses. Thomas had 135 yards against a Penn State run defense ranked much higher in run defense than Notre Dame who ranks 85th in yardage and 90th in yards per carry. Although those numbers are skewed a bit having faced Georgia Tech and Navy they gave up 590 yards to USC in their own building and were lucky to win by forcing 4 turnovers. Temple is not going to turn the ball over, and I would actually bet that Temple wins the turnover margin. Notre Dame has the tendency to turn the ball over with 20 in their last 9 games dating back to last season. Temple has one of the best front 7 havoc rates in the country and at home they are sacking QB’s on 14% of their drop backs while Notre Dame is 84th at protecting their QB. I expect Notre Dame to keep it on the ground for most of the game and that really favors us covering the spread here. It’s worth noting that Notre Dame has not held an opponent other than Texas under 20 points all season, and Temple’s defense has been dynamite on third downs and in red zone defense. Notre Dame on the road is converting just 18% of the time on third down which is a major concern in this game. I really see Temple coming out strong in this one and coaching will keep them in this one late. |
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10-31-15 | Georgia v. Florida -2 | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 40 h 40 m | Show | |
Florida Gators -2 -105 3.3* play This game will decide the SEC East on neutral field. This is a huge game and once again it’s time to fade Georgia’s head coach Mark Richt. Florida will have the field advantage playing in Jacksonville, and I expect them to play their best game yet. This is a game they dominated last year without the better head coach, and their QB Treon Harris only completed 3 passes in that game, but Florida still won 38-20. Georgia will be without Nick Chubb, and we have seen the running game far less explosive without him as they only averaged 3 yards per carry at home against Missouri. Their QB just simply can’t be trusted especially against a big time defense like this. I expect Florida to win the battle of the defenses, and Jim McElwain to get a signature victory. Both times Georgia had to step up and play a defense of this caliber they were unable to do so losing against both Alabama and Tennessee with just 27 total first downs. |
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10-31-15 | Georgia Tech v. Virginia +6 | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 39 h 22 m | Show | |
Virginia +6 2.2* play This would be a larger play in any other scenario featuring any other coach. I’m not a big fan of Mike London at all, but it’s hard not to play this value here with Virginia who is much better than their schedule indicates. Virginia has had a very challenging schedule this year, and Georgia Tech is coming off a very emotional win against Florida State on a blogged field goal returned for a TD. I expect them to come out flat which could mean good things for Virginia. There really is not a talent gap at all between these two teams so I expect the game to be close until the end. Georgia Tech’s defense on the road has not been good and neither has their offense. While they have faced 3 of the best defenses in the country on the road this year I do expect Virginia’s front 7 to play well as they have improved each in every year vs. this triple option under Mike London which is actually pretty surprising. Georgia Tech is allowing nearly 5 yards per carry in conference play, and 5.33 on the road and I expect Virginia to be able to get that part of their game going which will be huge. I also think Matt Johns can have success against this defense that is ranked 118th in havoc rate. Johns had 4 interceptions in the second half of last week’s game against North Carolina, but Virginia still only lost by 13 points. Johns should be able to take care of the ball against Georgia Tech, and If he does I see no reason why this team won’t be in the game until the end. This was a team after all that nearly upset Notre Dame and probably should have. They play excellent defense at home – 28% conversions allowed on third down and 43% TD% in the red zone. Georgia Tech has not been able to convert on third down 19% on the road and 30% in conference play. I like Georgia Tech here to have a shot to pull off the upset. It won’t save London’s job, but this is a perfect scenario against a team in a serious hang over situation. |