Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-03-19 | Temple v. East Carolina +12 | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
East Carolina +12 2.2% play |
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09-29-19 | Raiders +6.5 v. Colts | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
Raiders +6.5 2.2% |
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09-29-19 | Chargers v. Dolphins +14.5 | 30-10 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
Dolphins +14.5 3.3% play |
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09-29-19 | Chiefs v. Lions +7.5 | Top | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 2 h 23 m | Show |
LIONS +7.5 5.5% NFL POD |
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09-28-19 | UNLV +9.5 v. Wyoming | 17-53 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
UNLV +9 3.3% Play / UNLV +290 0.5% Play Wyomin has been one of the most misleading teams this season, and they are facing a UNLV team coming off a bye. Wyoming is shorthanded this week as 4 players went down in their loss last week at Tulsa. UNLV QB Armani Rogers is an under rated QB who can beat you with his feat, and I think it adds an added dynamic for Wyoming to stop. Rogers state, "I was watchign film over the bye week just to understand what I'm going against. I feel like with them playing man-on-man with our receivers, I believe in our receivers 100 percent. And they're a very agressive team so I feel like we can take shots." It won't take much as Wyoming's completing just 38% of their passes, and they're not much better running the ball. UNLV has been outgained by 99 yards per game against awful opponents like Texas State, and Idaho. Wyoming's defense has kept them in games, but it's not as good as last year as they are giving up 120+ yards more than their opponents season average. Coach Sanchez hinted at coming out throwing the ball to set up the run instead of the opposite, which I think is a good approach against Wyoming as long as you take care of the ball. UNLV really needs a win if they want to go to a bowl game, and I think with the extra preparation for this game and the ability to look at Wyoming's tendencies they should have a good game plan to be in position to cover the 9 point spread and pull the upset. |
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09-28-19 | Ohio State v. Nebraska +17.5 | 48-7 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
Nebraska +17 3.3% play If you want to hang out for a 17.5 I think you may see it pop up at a couple of shops, but if Nebraska is in the game like I think they'll be you won't need it. The biggest question I have that is not making this a larger play is the fact that Nebraska has not been able to hold onto the ball. There were 5 fumbles in last week's game against Illinois and Nebraska did not recover a single one. So right now it's a bit of not taking care of the ball and not having the luck to recover. So I think this has been a focus all week in their singature game under Scott Frost. The result against Illinois is also giving us 3 points of value from last week. Anytime you just barely beat Illinois 42-38 you are going to be disrespected in the market, and people are going to be very hesitant to back you, but that's where we make money. I saw good things from Nebraska each of the last two weeks. They actually outgained Illinois 671 to 299 so that final score was misleading and I think gives us value in this number. This team has the confidence and believes and are fully capable with Adrian Martinez at QB to pull an upset. They lost 36-31 and led 21-16 at the half in Columbus just a season ago. Ohio State has struggled in these road games against programs playing in a crazy atmosphere at night. They lost at Purdue last year, and at Iowa the year before. I don't envision Nebraska blowing out Ohio State, but I do think this is a close game and Nebraska is fully capable of a back door at worse case. Ohio State has struggled with teams who have explosive rushing attacks, and it's probably the weakness of Ohio State's defense. Right now they rank 3rd in the country in run defense, but the average opponent's rushing attack ranks 102.75. I really like this spot for Nebraska it's their biggest game in years, and it's at night, and we are getting line value. |
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09-28-19 | Georgia Tech +9 v. Temple | 2-24 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 40 m | Show | |
Georgia Tech +91.1% Free Play 63-41 ATS L104 Free College PIcks Georgia Tech lost to Citadel last time out, and usually when an FBS team loses to an FCS team there is line value for weeks. Citadel really limited possessions in that game, and now Georgia Tech is off a bye, and HC Geoff Collins and his assistants get to go back to where they coached a season ago to face Temple. Collins recruited all of these guys, and I think it really helps when you have an extra week to prepare against a team you know extremely well. Georgia Tech’s defense is underrated and I think that is what keeps them in this game. The secondary has been good, and they’ve been able to get some pressure on the QB. Anthony Russo, the Temple QB really has not been consistent at the position. He cost them the game against Buffalo, and I still think Temple is getting too much credit following their upset of Maryland a few weeks ago. I expect this to be a tight game with a lot of emotions flying around between Georgia Tech coaches and Temple players. |
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09-28-19 | Iowa State v. Baylor +3 | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 39 h 40 m | Show | |
Baylor +3 2.2% play These two teams are very similar with two up and coming coaches who play much better in the underdog role. Baylor was not impressive at Rice last week while Iowa State dominated Louisiana Monroe, and that’s giving us tremendous line value in my opinion. Baylor under Matt Rhule is actually an amazing 11-3 straight up as a dog by less than a TD, and in this game last year they may have lost 28-14 at Iowa State, but they outgained them 505 yards to 355, as they were only able to score 14 points in 7 trips in the red zone. So far they have 12 TD’s in 13 trips to the red zone. Baylor should benefit from the weather that is showing 25-27 mph wind gusts, as they run the ball 58% of the time compared to Iowa State who runs just 45% and is extremely thin at RB. Baylor out rushed Iowa State last year, and I expect the same here as Charlie Brewer who had 80 yards rushing is still the QB for the Bears. It’s also going to be 97 degrees which also favors Baylor. Iowa State had two trips to the state of Texas last year and lost both to TCU, and Texas. Iowa State is getting a lot of hype in the early going, but I think these teams are fairly even, but we are getting Baylor a +3 at home. |
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09-28-19 | USC v. Washington -10.5 | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show | |
Washington -10.5 4.4% NCAAF POD I think Matt Fink and this USC team may have just too much confidence after their win against UTAH last week, which I felt was a bit misleading. USC backers will disagree with me, but Utah was unfortunate to lose their star RB early, and there were a bunch of 50-50 balls that UTAH just didn't defend. Honestly, I would be surprised if Fink does not get picked off here several times. Everyone is calling Matt Fink the best 3rd string QB in the country, but he's actually the 4th string. Get your facts right! The 2nd string quit on the team, the third string was Slovis, and Fink was the 4th guy in camp. After one game we want to call this system pluggable? Graham Harrel has done a good job so far as OC, but it's about to get a lot tougher, because Washington's defense has owned this style of offense. I admitted in my write up last week that Utah has had issues with Washington State, but I had felt like BYU had put together a template of how to defeate it, but UTAH seemed to be very stubborn in that game and continued to play man vs. man defense the entire game almost. They mixed up zone a little bit, but not nearly enough to make an impact. Well Washington, and DC Jimmy Lake who was previously the DB coach has done an excellent job in pass defense over the years and have sent many guys to the NFL. Their last 4 games vs. Washington State, who runs a similar offense they have forced 18 TO'S! That's not a misprint. Since 2015 there have been 4 meetings and the average score was Washington 40 and Washington State 14. Now USC is obvioulsy more talented, but they have a worse coach in Clay Helton, just 3-11 ATS as a dog here, and teams traditionally are auto fade following an upset of a Top 10 team like USC is. We haven't even spoken about Washington's offense which has been great, and I think we are still getting value on this Washington team from their weird loss to Cal. Jacob Eason has a better arm than most QB's in the NFL, and he's been accurate too completing 73% of his passes. This is easily the best raw talented QB that Chris Petersen has had to work with. USC has a very young secondary that is prone to giving up big plays. I think Washington rolls here and we are back talking about how Clay Helton will be fired at the end of the year. |
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09-28-19 | Central Michigan +17 v. Western Michigan | 15-31 | Win | 100 | 35 h 9 m | Show | |
Central Michigan +17 3.3% play This spread is out of whack to me, and I think you see Central Michigan lose 61-0 to Wisconsin, and you see Western Michigan dominate Georgia State 57-10 at home, and it doesn’t seem all that crazy, but I think the Chippewas match up really well in this one. Western MIchigan could also be without their best offensive player in LeVAnte Bellamy, the RB has averaged 7.21 ypc, but I think Central MIchigan has proven they can stop the run. Central Michigan actually ranks 20th in ypc defense, compared to Western Michigan’s 118th ranking, and they both have faced similar offenses. In fact Central Michigan held Wisconsin to a season low 199 yards rushing, and a season low 4.63 ypc. They just got done holding Miami to 1.51 yards per carry. When Western Michigan can’t run the ball they are a different team. When Western Michigan is held under 4 yards per carry vs. FBS opponents they are just 3-5 since last year, and the 3 wins were by 3, 1, and 7 points. I think this can keep CMU in the game, and WMU has not been great on third down this year converting only 40%, and even in their dominating win against Georgia State they were 4-11. Central Michigan is holding opponents to 37% conversions on third down right now. This defense also has the 19th ranked sack % so if they can stuff WMU on 1st down, they can also put pressure on Western’s QB Jon Wassink. CMU’s offense has been awful this year, but look at the defenses they have played, Wisconsin and Miami. The one time they didn’t play a dominating defense they put up 45 points against Akron. CMU has faced a tougher schedule so far, and we are getting line value because of it. Western Michigan’s run defense ranks 118th, and I think the Chippewas should be able to get their running game going like they did against Akron. Western Michigan has allowed over 200 yards and over 5 ypc in all of their games, and that’s against an average rushing attack ranked 76th. So they are playing poorly against poor competition in terms of rushing attacks. I think McElwain is an underrated coach, and this team seems to be playing for him. Chippewas won here two years ago, and I think this game comes down to the 4th quarter. |
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09-27-19 | San Jose State v. Air Force -18.5 | 24-41 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 30 m | Show | |
Air Force -19.5 2.2% play Air Force really out played their last two opponents in the box score, and came away 1-1, but they were more impressive than the final scores indicated. Now they get to play an inferior opponent that lost to Army 52-3 last year. San Jose State is also off a bad travel spot on a short week, Air Force has an extra day of rest here. San Jose State also off their biggest upset in program history beating a bad Arkansas team on the road, and benefited from +4 TO's. Now they have to go on the road in back to back weeks to face an Air Force team on Friday night at altitude. Not a good spot for San Jose, I can see Air Force's offense going crazy in this game. The only reason Air Force didn't have a shot to beat Boise last week was they could not convert on 4th down. Army was 3-3 against San Jose State on 4th down, and 10-16 on third down. Air Force is much better than a season ago, and we haven't seen their best game yet. |
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09-22-19 | Steelers +6.5 v. 49ers | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
Steelers +6.5 3.3% play |
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09-22-19 | Saints +4.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
Saints +4.5 5.5% NFL POD |
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09-21-19 | Central Florida v. Pittsburgh +11.5 | 34-35 | Win | 100 | 39 h 26 m | Show | |
Pitt + 11 2.2% play Pitt covered, and had a chance to tie and win the game against Penn State on the road last week, but they couldn’t get the job done, but they did out gain Penn State, and QB Pickett had another great game under this new offense with Mark Whipple. Pitt was a 17 point dog on the road, which would make them an 11 point dog at home to Penn State, which is the same line here. There is no way UCF has as much talent as Penn State right now, and I think this line is inflated. UCF has been impressive, and they beat a beat up Stanford team last week in impressive fashion. They beat Pitt last year in impressive fashion at home. However, they had an extra day of rest in that game, and it was their first game against a P5 opponent. Here they just got done cruising against Stanford and everyone is complimenting how great they are. The true freshman QB Gabriel is the next Tua Tagovailoa. This is Gabriel’s first road start, and he’s facing a good defense in Pitt who ranks 15th in sack % and they haven’t been giving up any explosive plays. That’s very different than last year when Pitt was 102nd in explosive play defense. They also were a run first team, and here they are much more balance, and the passing game is the strength of the team under new OC Mark Whipple. This Pitt team has weapons, and they have controlled the pace of play in all of their games. Even in their loss to Virginia earlier this year that game was much closer than the final showed. Call me crazy, but I think Pitt can pull the upset here. |
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09-21-19 | Temple v. Buffalo +14.5 | Top | 22-38 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
Buffalo +14.5 4.4% POD There is really good value here on Buffalo who lost last week as a road favorite (buy low), and fading Temple who won at home as a home dog (sell high). At this point we don't know much about Temple, and that game against Maryland (over rated) could have went either way, but they stopped Maryland twice at the goal line, and their QB Anthony Russo threw another pick, but should have thrown two. This is a sandwhich game for Temple too as they have Georgia Tech on deck. Georgia Tech's Head Coach was the Temple coach last year. So while Temple players remember losing to Buffalo last year some might have their eye on Georgia Tech the following week. Rod Carey is a fabulous coach, and comes over from Northern Illinois, who beat Buffalo and HC Lance Leipold in the MAC Championship game a year ago by 1 point, and in 2018 they beat Buffalo 14-13. Buffalo blew a 29-10 lead in the MAC Championship. Buffalo is strong in the trenches, and Carey has stated it's the best OL and DL they have faced. There are questions at QB for Buffalo who is starting a freshman, but I think he plays better here at home, and I think the running game continues to have success. The OL returns 4 of 5 guys, and this is a group that ran the ball for 183 yards at Penn State, and led at the half before Penn State dominated the second half when they started throwing the ball. I don't know if Carey trusts Russo to take advantage of Buffalo's weakness in the secondary. Russo is very turnover prone, and I think he might throw 2 interceptions here today setting up Buffalo to have a shot at the upset. |
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09-21-19 | Michigan +3.5 v. Wisconsin | 14-35 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 1 m | Show | |
Michigan +3.5 3.3% play This will be a low scoring game, and the extra points are more valuable when you don’t expect a high scoring game. Plus this was Michigan -6.5 in the game of the year lines, and I don’t really understand the move of 10 full points. Michigan hasn’t looked good, but they are 2-0, and have everything to play for. I also think the bye benefited them more because they are implementing a new offense, and it obviously hasn’t gone smooth so far with Josh Gattis calling plays, but with the extra time here I think it will help the offense.
At the end of the day there is a clear talent edge on Michigan’s sideline. They average top 10 in recruiting the last 10 years compared to Wisconsin who is averaging 44th. That doesn’t always mean anything, but I’m sure these guys from Michigan don’t like the fact that they are dogs here, and they have had to hear for 2 weeks how they haven’t beaten a top 10 team, and they struggled and nearly lost to Army in OT. Oklahoma also almost lost to Army in OT last year before pulling off the win, and they proceeded to beat Baylor the next week by 33 points and go onto the college football playoff. I was high on Wisconsin coming in and played them in week 1 at South Florida, but this is a crazy line move, and I”m not honestly sold on QB Jack Coan vs. a capable defense. Coan is getting a ton of credit right now, but I just think Shea Patterson will out play him, and Wisconsin’s secondary is suspect to big plays which Michigan is capable of with the talent they have at WR. Also, Coan vs. teams with a winning record last year was 35-62 for 291 yards, 2 TD’s and 3 INT, (Northwester, Penn State, and Miami). |
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09-19-19 | Houston +5 v. Tulane | 31-38 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
Houston +5 2.2% play First of all Houston was a 7.5 point favorite last year, and won 48-17 despite losing D'eriq King early in that game. The year before King lost at Tulane despite 141 yards rushing on 10 carries. I think Houston is focused for this game, the fact that they are looking at 1-3 if they lose is a scary thought, and I think Tulane is getting a bit too much love. At the end of the day Houston still has better players. The last 4 year recruiting rankings prove that as Houston's average recruiting over that time is 59.5 in the country compared to Tulane's 91.25 out of 130 teams. Houston lost quite a bit on the defensive side of the ball, but they return 91% of their offense, and I liked what I saw from King so far this season considering he played two top 20 teams in Washington State and Oklahoma. I also think it's a tough situation for Tulane on just 5 days rest. Home favorites on 5 days of rest playing a conference opponent are just 7-16-3 ATS since 1985. Tulane has benefited thus far from special teams and turnovers, but that was not a strength for this team last year where they ranked 73rd, and 75th. They have also averaged 9 penalties per game this season, while Houston comes in at 6. To me this game is going to be all about who can run the ball more efficiently, and my money is on Houston. Houston has out gained Tulane each of the last two seasons on the ground with King at QB. I think their are sharps out there who feel this will change, but really Houston's defensive stats are skewed based on their opponents of Oklahoma and Washington State, two top 10 offenses in the country. Houston was very good against the run the last two games allowing well under 3 yards per carry in each game. Tulane's run defense has been more impressive, but they had good run defensive stats last year and Houston put up 298 yards. I understand that Dana Holgorsen is bringing a different offense here, but he has always leaned more on the run in this offense, and so far he's running the ball 60% of hte time. Houston has also been able to run the ball against every opponent this year with over 200 yards rushing in each game and over 5ypc in each game. |
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09-15-19 | Seahawks v. Steelers -3.5 | 28-26 | Loss | -105 | 44 h 60 m | Show | |
Steelers -3.5 3.3% |
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09-15-19 | Colts +3.5 v. Titans | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
Colts +3.5 2.2% |
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09-15-19 | Chargers v. Lions +2 | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 44 h 59 m | Show |
Lions +2 5.5% POD |
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09-14-19 | Florida State +7.5 v. Virginia | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 44 h 50 m | Show | |
Florida State +7.5 2.2% play I think this is a massive line move against Florida State that I just can’t pass up. Everyone is on Virginia after they popped into the Top 25, and this team in my opinion is being over rated just a bit. Their offense did not look great in week 1 at PItt, with just 310 yards, and they largely benefited from +2 TO margin. Last week they turned the ball over 4 times against William & Mary. Maybe, FSU’s head coach Willie Taggart is just that bad, but I know for sure he has the better talent.
It just seems like Florida State’s biggest issue right now is conditioning, and the weather has not helped them in the first two weeks. Not to mention the fact that their defense has been on the field for 97 plays per game. The good news is this is a night game in Virginia with the temperature expected to be in the 70’s. They also face an opponent that does not play an up-tempo offense. Virginia only averaged 67 plays per game a year ago.
FSU also hired JIm Leavitt, a defensive guru as a consultant this week. He was already at practice Thursday and reviewing film. It’s a short window, but with all the talent FSU has on defense it could be a small fix. I think the weather, and travel spot will benefit this team. |
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09-14-19 | USC v. BYU +4.5 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 40 h 47 m | Show | |
BYU +4.5 3.3% PLAY I certainly don’t know how anyone could trust Clay Helton in the favorite role (7-15 ATS), and a QB that just played probably his best game ever 28-33 377 yards 3 TD’s, in Kedon Slovis who just 2 weeks ago was the third string QB here. I’m betting that doesn’t happen again, and this is a major sandwich game for USC with Utah on deck especially how everyone is telling USC how great they are and they are back in the top 25.
BYU opened the season against Utah in a 30-12 loss, but that game was much closer, and I expect BYU’s crowd to really be a factor here. I think USC played their A game against Stanford, and I really don’t see them playing their A game in back to back weeks. They were awful on the road last year only winning by 4 at Arizona, and 3 at Oregon State, the two worst PAC 12 teams last year. I think BYU and Zach Wilson got their confidence last week against Tennessee, and I think it carries into this game. I really like what I see from Wilson as QB. It hasn’t showed up this year, but I think he has a big game here. On the flip side I think Kedon Slovis makes a mistake. BYU returns a ton of experience on defense. A defense that was 26th in passing defense against a pretty good strength of schedule. They also were #1 in explosive defense, and I think they are just going to bore USC into turnovers. BYU also #17 in special teams and is proving they are just as good this year. I think they do all the little things to get this win at home. |
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09-14-19 | Air Force +3.5 v. Colorado | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 37 h 17 m | Show | |
Air Force +3.5 3.3% PLAY I think Air Force is catching Colorado at the perfect time with their PAC 12 opener on deck. For one they are off a bye with plenty of time to prepare for Colorado, and this game is an 11am local kick which clearly favors a service academy. Colorado just off an emotional overtime victory coming back from 17-0 to beat Nebraska, and now they have to face Air Force and the triple option. Colorado is 2-0 SU and ATS on the season, but they have two misleading finals, and could just as easily be 0-2, but you have to give Mel Tucker and this coaching staff credit.
Tucker coming over from Georgia where he was the DC has seen the option before facing Georgia Tech every year, but Colorado and its players has nto, and they spent the majority of the summer preparing for up-tempo spread teams like Colorado State and Nebraska. Now they did focus a bit on the triple option, but not a ton, and I think this is Air Force’s best team since their 10-3 year two seasons ago. Air Force has 14 returning starters, which is a lot for a service academy. They are always a tough opponent in non-conference play where they are 11-2 ATS the last 3 years, because preparing for the triple option is not easy. Colorado so far ranks 125th in stuff rate, which should add up to Air Force controlling the clock in this game. |
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09-14-19 | Pittsburgh +17.5 v. Penn State | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 36 h 16 m | Show | |
Pitt +17.5 2.2% PLAY I like Pitt for a few different reasons here. For one they controlled the clock in both games, and held Penn State 33 yards under their season average, and 148 yards under their season average, but unfortunately turned the ball over 6 times. They were in both games despite the final scores the last two years. They also beat Ohio by more than the final score would have indicated as they outgained Ohio 481 to 212 in the 20-10 final, which makes Pitt appear to be not that great. Penn State also played a MAC team last week at home, and they were getting beat on both sides of the ball on the line of scrimmage. They trailed at half time, and were outgained in the game, but all of that is hidden because they won 45-13 and covered the 31.5 point spread.
Now maybe that was a wake up call for this Penn State team, but I’m betting that Pitt wants this game bad, and there are enough red flags for Penn State, and more strengths for Pitt for me to believe this will be a game. Penn State who is breaking in a new QB in Sean Clifford has not been great on third down. Penn State is just 3-17 on third down, and Pitt’s defense has held opponents 11-30 on third down. Pitt’s defense has played great against two respectable opponents. They held Virginia to 310 yards of offense and even that game was closer than the final indicated. I like that we are getting line value here with Pitt. Narduzzi has always been a good dog coach, and is 12-6 ATS as a road dog. Beat Clemson as a 21 point dog on the road in 2016. I think they have high variance with Mark Whipple as the OC, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them pull the upset here. This Pitt offense is due to click at some point, and I think Pitt might surprise them a bit with their new look offense. Now, if Pitt turns the ball over a bunch again then they will lose this game and not cover the spread. Pitt, however does take care of the ball on the road with only 12 TO’s in their last 13 road games. |
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09-13-19 | Washington State v. Houston +9.5 | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
Houston +9 2.2% play Houston has gone 4-2 the last 3 years against the Power 5, with their only losses coming to in-state Texas Tech by 3 and 14 points. The AAC is 5-2 vs. the PAC 12, and that includes Houston defeating Arizona the last two seasons by 27 and 3 points. Washington State has opened it up against two weak opponents and have looked great offensively it just looks like they can plug any QB they want into the system as Anthony Gordon 9 passing TD’s to 1 INT, which came against the likes of New Mexico State and Northern Colorado. I think Houston is a bit under the radar here, as they shut down the offense in the second half against Praire View A&M, and they opened against Oklahoma in week1. It’s like everyone forgot about D’Eriq King and this offense that I think Washington State is going to have problems with. Houston ranked top 25 in rushing yards per carry, and QB rating. Washington State did not face a single team last year that had top 50 rushing and passing, and they did not face a single team with a top 25 offense in either category. The last time they did face a team like this on the road was Arizona in 2017, which was when Khalil Tate was taking college football by storm. Arizona beat Washington State 58-37. Washington State won 11 games last year, and I feel like they are getting far too much credit, and the PAC 12 is just not really good lets be honest. Washington STate has struggled at home against bad offenses stopping the run. They gave up over 200 yards rushing and 2 TD’s to Northern Colorado last week. Northern Colorado could not get the running game going against San Jose STate in week 1 who held them to 2.68 ypc and 110 yards. The last time Washington State faced a mobile QB it was the Utah QB Huntley who is not nearly as mobile as King. Huntley had 88 yards rushing and although Utah lost that game 24-28 they should have won. I think Washington State has trouble here, and if they do get a big lead early on the road the back door should be wide open. Houston always plays well when they step up in competition |
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09-08-19 | Steelers +6 v. Patriots | 3-33 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
Steelers +6 3.3% play |
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09-08-19 | Colts +6.5 v. Chargers | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show | |
Colts +6.5 3.3% play |
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09-08-19 | Rams v. Panthers +2 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 13 m | Show |
Panthers +2 4.4% NFL POD |
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09-07-19 | Minnesota -3 v. Fresno State | 38-35 | Push | 0 | 47 h 59 m | Show | |
Minn -3 3.3% play Minnesota gets 2 extra days of rest and preparation while Fresno played USC late on Saturday, but will host MInnesota here in what should be a challenging travel situation for Minnesota, but I believe we are getting some betting value as Minnesota struggled against an FCS opponent last week. South Dakota State is the #3 FCS team and Minnesota returns 90% of their offensive and defensive production that beat a Fresno State team last year by 7. Fresno State returns just 9 starters, and I know that teams returning 9 or fewer starters this year went 10-1 ATS last week, but that’s such a small sample size, and when you lose this much production as an Group of 5 team you will struggle especially when you are going to be dealing with inflated numbers all year long. Fresno State is the first team going back 10 years to have consecutive seasons with 10 wins ATS. Their had only been 3 teams to win 20 in 2 years, and 6 more who won 19, and those teams the following year went just 41-63 ATS.
Fresno State was right in the game last year against Minnesota, and I believe Minnesota won’t take them lightly and this is very much a business trip. The other thing to factor in is Minnesota did not have their star RB Rodney Smith as he got hurt after 1 carry last year. They also had a very different QB in Anextad, and Tanner Morgan has played much better and really opens this offense up. He averaged 9.2 yards per pass attempt compared to 6.9 by Anexstad, and Minnesota has a tandem of WR in Tyler Johnson and RAshad Bateman who are the best duo at Minnesota at receiver in over a decade. Fresno State lost their QB in McMaryion and I know Jorge Reyna has some grit, and is supposed to be better, but he is relying on a completely new group of receivers, and is very mistake prone to start. I think it’s asking a lot of Fresno to keep covering spreads, and this is supposed to be a down year while Minnesota should be up it just did not show up last week against a very good FCS team. Minnesota went on the road to the PAC 12 in 2017 as a 3 point dog and won 48-14 at Oregon State under PJ Fleck so I’m confident he’ll have this team ready. |
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09-07-19 | LSU v. Texas +7 | 45-38 | Push | 0 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
Texas +6.5 3.3% play This line is puzzling and it's kept me from releasing it earlier in the week in hopes of waiting for a 7. There are some 7's out there, but neither of my books have it, and I'm comfortable with 6.5. First of all I don't understand this line other than the fact that LSU just has better depth right now, and Texas has running back issues, but Sam Ehlinger can carry the load in big games and has proven that in the past. Also, it's not like LSU can run the ball like they used to. They averaged just 3.63 yards per carry on the road last year, and had only 122 yards in game one against Georgia Southern. Sam Ehlinger > Joe Burrow. I'm sorry he just is, and I feel more confident in Texas ability to get him into 3rd and long and release their different defensive packages to cause confusion and force turnovers which is the biggest keys to this game. LSU +12 in wins in TO Margin, -2 in losses, while Texas was +9 and -4 in losses, but Texas only turned the ball over 5 times at home all last season. Tom Herman > Ed Orgeron. I like Ed O, but Tom is a better coach especially in big games. I am not even going to throw out the stat of Tom Herman as a dog. Tom Herman also has experience going up against a Dave Aranda defense, and Texas runs the same defense in practice so I expect Ehlinger to be just fine in this game. The two previous match ups between a Herman offense and an Aranda defense resulted in 7 passing TD's 0 INT (BIG KEY), and over 500 yards rushing as Ohio State out scored Wisconsin 110-24 in 2013-14. Recruiting - Texas has out recruited LSU the last two years, and was right there in 2017. Despite Texas having to replace 8 defensive starters, the guys replacing last years starters are probably better. I think Texas really matches up well in this game, and if they can tackle and force Burrow into a mistake with confusion they should win this game outright. |
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09-07-19 | Wyoming v. Texas State +7 | Top | 23-14 | Loss | -105 | 43 h 27 m | Show |
Texas State +7 4.4% NCAAF POD Wyoming is just 2-4 ATS under Boh as a road favorite, and they have to do it this week after a home upset of Missouri where their fans rushed the field. First of all that was a completely misleading final. So many things happened in that game including turnovers from Missouri that led to 10 points, but also took away 14 points form Missouri which was a 24 point swing.
Texas State stays in their home state, and have 2 extra days to prepare and rest which is a big deal in my opinion. I really like the head coach hiring of Jake Savital, and I think their offense will look a lot better this week against Wyomin’s secondary, a unit that lost two 4 year starters who were the glue of that defense. It certainly showed as Kelly Bryant passed for 423 yards, and Bryant is not really known for his arm. In all they lost 100 starters in the secondary, and it will be a tough match-up for Wyoming as Texas State under OC Bob Stitt, and HC Spavital have made it pretty clear they will throw the ball. Texas State did not play well at Texas A&M, but I’m going to give them a pass considering they played a borderline top 10 team, on the road at night @ Kyle Field in front of 98,000 fans. What I like most about Texas State is they return 10 starters from a unit that ranked 43rd in yards per play allowed facing an average opponent offense ranking 66th in ypp on offense. They have the best LB’s in the Sun Belt, and they go up against a one dimensional Wyoming unit. I don’t think SEan Chambers can pass the ball he was 6-16, and I think it will lead to some mistakes by Wyoming. |
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09-07-19 | West Virginia +14 v. Missouri | 7-38 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 40 m | Show | |
West Virginia +14 2.2% PLAY This is a lot of points for MIssouri, who played really sloppy last week losing to Wyoming with 3 turnovers, while giving up 297 yards on the ground and 7 yards per carry. West Virginia returns a trio of RB’s who combined for 1871 yards last year, and they bring in an excellent coach in Neal Brown from Troy. Neal Brown at Troy the last three years, beat Nebraska on the road, LSU on the road, and lost to Clemson on the road by only 6 points in 2016. In my opinion, Neal Brown falls into the category of a top tier HC in his first year. Those type of coaches have gone 39-18 ATS over the last 3 years as a dog.
Troy was among the slowest teams in college football under Neal Brown at 66 plays per game which was 109th last year, and in their first game they had just 66 plays. I expect much of the same in this game, which gives us more value on 14 total points in my opinion. I understand West Virginia looked awful against James Madison, but JMU is the #2 ranked FCS team in the country, and have given P5 opponents games before. They lost 24-13 to NC State early in the year, and that NC State team went on to go 9-3. I’m not saying West Virginia is that good, but I think they have more talent that it showed last week, and I just don’t agree with the line moving from 10.5 at open to 14. |
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09-07-19 | Syracuse +1.5 v. Maryland | 20-63 | Loss | -109 | 37 h 39 m | Show | |
Syracuse +1.5 2.2% PLAY Syracuse is the better team, and they have the better coach. This line has moved 4 points or so since opening, and it’s because of Maryland’s 79-0 thrashing of Howard, and the fact that Syracuse has Clemson on deck, but I’m siding with Syracuse whose strength really translates on the road. Syracuse defense was elite against LIberty, who has players, and they got the running game going as well. To me we have value because their QB did not play well, but I expect he will play a lot better this week. Syracuse since Dino Babers has come aboard is 9-3 ATS As an away dog, and I think this is another opportunity where they are getting disrespected going from a favorite to a dog.
The line of scrimmage favors Syracuse. Maryland had just 18 sacks a season ago which ranked them 114th. They had 8 sacks in the first game, but that was against Howard, and Syracuse also had 8 sacks, but they are clearly more proven. Syracuse ranked 21st in pass rush last year while Maryland ranked 126th protecting the QB, and that was against a very poor pass rushing units, on average they faced 71.5 ranked pass rush. I also think Syracuse is in better shape, and it’s going to be in the 80s on Saturday. MIke Locksley had to stop practice to give his guys a break this week because of the heat, and he did not sound like a confident coach. Additionally we have seen this before with Maryland getting off to a fast start, and hype around their talent level, but it never comes to fruition. I don’t see anything changing under Locksley, who does not have a good history as a head coach. If you still think the Howard win is impressive, Kent State beat Howard last year 79-0. |
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09-07-19 | Ohio v. Pittsburgh -4 | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 40 h 11 m | Show | |
Pitt -4 2.2% We backed Pitt in a teaser last week and I still feel like it was the right side getting 9 points of line movement. This week we will back them on the side, as we are getting 2.5 points of line value from the 6.5 at open. It’s also very weird to see 67% of the action on Ohio in money, but the line has gone the other way. Pitt lost the game 30-14, but all 3 of Virginia’s TD’s came with great field position. They started all three of those drives on their own 29 yard line or better. Pitt has been a top 25 unit on special teams, and they are facing an opponent with far less talent. Now many will point to this being a sandwich game before Penn STate, but I”m not buying into that all. Pitt needs a win here with a road game at Penn State, and UCF the following week. I think we are getting great value here because of last week’s results. Ohio just simply does not have as much talent. In 2017 their recruits ranked 109th out of the 130 school while PItt ranked 33rd. These are the players that are playing today. Ohio has been a darling of the Group of 5, but during the regular season, they are just 2-6 vs. the Power 5 since 2013. The two wins were both against Kansas, arguably the worst of the Power 5. The 6 losses were by an average of 18 points per game. I think we see a balanced attack from PItt here. They averaged 7.3 ypc on the ground at home last year, and even though they have 4 new starters on the offensive line, they brought in OC Mark Whipple, who led Umass of all teams to two top 50 yards per play seasons. However, I feel Pitt gets back to running more. I don’t see them running the ball only 15x, and that should be a good thin as Ohio’s run defense is not nearly as good on the road, and that will take the pressure off the offensive line to pass block, and set Whipple up for some bigger plays later in the game. I also like the fact that Pitt held Virginia to just 310 yards and 129 on the ground, and Virginia has a mobile QB as does Ohio. |
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09-06-19 | Marshall +13 v. Boise State | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 5 h 19 m | Show | |
Marshall +12 2.2% play I think we are getting some line value here with Marshall after Boise is sky high after a come from behind win at Florida State which saw their offense run 107 plays. The offense looked great, but they still averaged less than 6 yards per play on a gassed Florida State defense. Confidence is sky high with true freshman Hank Bachmeier after he threw the ball 51 times for 407 yards 1 TD and 1 INT on the road against an ACC defense, but sometimes too much confidence is a bad thing. Boise State just 12-20-1 ATS the last 5 years on the turf, and 11-21 ATS as a home favorite under Harsin. Doc Holliday is the better coach, and is 11-4 ATS as a dog, and 5-0 in bowl games. I believe these Marshall team is treating this like a bowl game. They are clearly more excited about facing Boise in a Friday night spotlight game than Boise is. Many players calling this a measuring stick game, and a game that you get excited for. The key of the game is to stop the run and put the pressure on the true freshman QB. The Marshall defense has a 15-game streak without allowing an individual 100-yard rusher. The defense also held up pretty good on the road last year allowing opponents to rush for just 3.2 yards per carry. Marshall wants to start fast, and I think they can. Boise State trailed Florida State 31-13 after the first 12 drives where they gave up 11.5 yards per play while they had just 5.3. On the flip side Boise secondary can be thrown on, and Marshall has an experienced offensive line with 111 career starts led by LT Levi Brown. They averaged 5.23 yards per carry on the road a season ago. I have to be honest, this game is probably a spread of 6.5 if Florida State was in shape and held onto their 31-13 lead. However, we all know what happened, and you have to give Boise credit, but I think Marshall has a better coach than Florida State. I think this game will be a battle, and I would not be shocked to see Marshall pull an upset. After all this was supposed to be the year Boise took a step back. They lost a 4 year starter at QB, their top 2 WR, and top RB. I just think there were too many weird factors with Florida State, and enough opportunity for the Seminoles to not be prepared. Sometimes when games get moved, and you are in your home state it’s not a good thing, and it’s not like that Stadium was packed in the second half when Boise made their come back. |
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09-02-19 | Notre Dame v. Louisville +19 | 35-17 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
Louisville +19 2.2% play I think there is some value here on the home dog. Louisville quit on their coach last year, and now they bring in Scott Satterfield, who did great things at App State. Louisville returns 16 starters, and open up in a game against highly touted Notre Dame on national television. This is Notre Dame's largest road favorite role since 2000, and thought hey return their star QB in Ian Boo, they lose their top RB, and arguably their top 4 defensive players. Louisville is figured to feature more of the running game, and I think they should be able to get it going against a young Notre Dame defense. Louisville will run a very different offense than Notre Dame is used to seeing, and I think Louisville will be able to move the ball a bit here at home, with a heavy dose of the RPO, and lots of pre-snap motion deception and different formations. Also worth noting is special teams. Scott Satterfield has always had among the best special teams units in the country and I don't think it will be any different here at Louisville. Situationally I also think this play makes a lot of sense. On one hand you have an Ap Top 10 team from the pre-season + Notre Dame getting hype here. I typically like to fade that situation, and aside from Alabama, Clemson, and Georgia who seem to cover regardless of hype, the other top 10 teams went 2-4 ATS, and it's been a losing proposition over the last 5 years to back a pre-season AP Top 10. Top tier first year head coaches in the Power 5 typically do extremely well as a dog in their first year. The last two years if you take the top tier coaches in their first year as a dog who had coaching experience they went 38-18 ATS and 40-18 ATS if we count this year's results. Those coaches are Kirby Smart, Tom Herman, Josh Wilcox, Matt Campbell, Justin Fuente, DAn Mullen, Scott Frost, JImbo Fisher, and Chip Kelly. I threw out coaches for this year like Manny Diaze (W ATS as a dog), Neal Brown, Mack Brown (W ATS as a dog), and Les Miles, and Scott Satterfield as potential coaches to back as a dog. |
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08-31-19 | Louisiana Tech +20.5 v. Texas | 14-45 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 28 m | Show | |
LA Tech +20.5 3.3% play Texas beat Georgia in their bowl game, but that was an unmotivated Georgia team, and Sam Ehlinger claimed Texas waas back, but this is one of the more overrated teams in college football if you ask me, and I love fading the pre-season AP Top 10 in the first few weeks of college football. Texas has just 8 returning starters, and lost their entire front 7, leading rusher, and receiver, and they are getting all this hype. They also have LSU on deck so how motivated is Tom Herman and Texas to run the score up here? Herman, is not that type of coach. In fact he is just 6-15-1 ATS as a home favorite, and lost the last two season openers as a double digit favorite at Texas. There is a lot to like about Louisiana Tech and Skip Holtz. He’s 14-4 ATS as a road dog, and he has a very experienced team with a lot of depth coming into this season. They also have experience playing on the road in SEC Country having played at LSU< and Miss State last year, and South Carolina the year before. J’Mar Smith, the veteran QB has 27 career starts under his belt, and won’t be fearful of this environment. I think Smith is going to have a much better year behind a very good offensive line that brings in a 4* LSU transfer to plug a hole, and more talent in the receiving corp. Louisiana Tech’s defense is my worry as they switch to the 3-4, but they have a Power 5 caliber secondary, which should slow this game down quite a bit. I don’t see any big play TD’s for Texas in this game. |
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08-31-19 | Duke +33.5 v. Alabama | 3-42 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 53 m | Show | |
Duke +32.5 2.2% play I really think there is line value in this number. It’s on a neutral field. Duke went on the road to play Clemson last year and they were 28 point dogs, which would suggest they would be +26.5 on a neutral against Clemson last year. They lost that game 35-6 so it’s not the first time this team has had to go up against a giant like Alabama. This is the 8th season in a row that Alabama is opening the season up on a neutral field, and this is their largest favorite role against a Power 5 opponent. Their average margin of victory over that period is 25.7 points, and they certainly deserve a lot of hype coming into this game, but I feel Duke can hang for several reasons. Duke and coach Cutcliffe have been great as a dog going 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games. Alabama has a lot of moving parts right now having to replace both coordinators, and I feel like there is a recipe out there to beat Tua now. Duke has a lot of experience in this game in the secondary, and they run a 4-2-5 defense, and if Tua is not careful I could see Duke coming up with a couple of turnovers. Their secondary returns all 4 starters and is led by Jim Thorpe nominee Michael Cater. With that being said I think the concentration here will be to run the ball, because that’s what Duke’s weakness is on defense which leads to a moving clock. |
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08-31-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Coastal Carolina +6 | Top | 30-23 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 53 m | Show |
Coastal Carolina +6 4.4% NCAAF POD Eastern MIchigan has just 10 returning starters as they head out on the road as the MAC faces off against the Sun Belt. The Sun Belt has gone 12-9 against the MAC, but the battles have been pretty even. I have tremendous respect for Chis Creighton and what he’s achieved here at Eastern Michigan, but with 10 returning starters I have questions. This team has played in a lot of close games, and has relied on the defense on the road, but I’m predicting they take a step back, and they have a tough task against Coastal Carolina. Coastal returns 15 starters, and has more depth than last year and 5 of their 9 losses were by 8 points or less. When depth was less of an issue Coastal defeated UAB 47-24 at home in week 2, and UAB went on to go 11-3. I think Coastal has a shot to pull the upset here. The offense should improve and was better than their final numbers, and the defense returns 8 starters. They just missed out on a bowl game last year and improve from #111 in experience to #51. Playing a lot of young guys last year will pay dividends this year. |
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08-31-19 | Boise State v. Florida State -6.5 | 36-31 | Loss | -108 | 38 h 23 m | Show | |
Pitt +8.5 & Florida State -0.5 Teaser of the Week - 42-28 +46.2% ROI Last 70 NCAAF Teasers Pitt +8.5 Virginia has more returning starters, and an under rated QB, but they are getting too much hype here in my opinion. Many are picking them to get to the ACC Championship, a game Pitt got to last year. Pitt does lose a lot on offense, 4 OL, 2 1,000 yard RB's, but they gain an excellen offensive mind in Mark Whipple. Highly experienced and led Umass the last two years to two top 50 yards per play. I expect this offense to be just fine, and they typically are able to replace RB's fairly easy. I think the defense will be very good, and this game just seems like a game that comes down to the wire.. Virginia just 1-4 on the road last year, too much hype, and the line has moved 3 points + 6 points I'm getting on a teaser with a team in Pitt feeling disrespected playing at home. Also those 9 points I'm getting off the opener are extremely valuable when you factor in the total is 45.5 for the game, I'll take it. Florida State -0.5 Florida State has 16 returning starters, and this game has turned into a home game due to the hurricane. Also, FSU already had 90% of the tickets when the game was in Jax, and now it will be at home. This is a far trip for Boise, at nearly 2500 miles. FSU is coming off their worst year since the 70's and I think they have something to prove. Boise State, in my opinion is not the same team that used to pull these upsets against major football programs. I also don't have a lot of faith in their head coach Bryan Harsin and they lose a 4 year starting QB, and a 1400 yard rusher. Meanwhile, Florida State returns 16 starters, and is hungry to start the season on a high note, and Willie Taggart has been a coach that win more games in his second year.
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08-31-19 | East Carolina +17.5 v. NC State | 6-34 | Loss | -104 | 3 h 45 m | Show | |
East Carolina +17.5 3.3% Play I think there is some value here in East Carolina who has been a cash burner the last 3 seasons under MOntgomery going 10-25 ATS. Mike Houston steps in after coaching JMU last year, and has good experienced, and played at NC State last year losing by only 11 points, and the game was closer than that. NC State only out gained them by 40 yards, and were unlucky recovering only 1 of the 3 fumbles in the game. I think we are getting value because of how bad East Carolina has been, and they also lost by 55 to NC State last year to end the year, but their HC was fired 48 hours before, and that was a make up game. East Carolina has a tendency to play these in state games tough especially against the Power 5 opponents. East Carolina beat NC State in 2016, and they also beat North Carolina as a 16 point dog last season. A lot of these players probably wanted to play at NC State, and weren't recruited, with 14 returning starters and a far better coach at the helm I think this game comes down to the wire. Especially considering what NC State lost on offense. NC State managed only 24 points against JMU last year and under 400 yards. NC State loses their QB Ryan Finley, who is #2 all time in passing yards in program history, 2 1,000 yard receivers, and 1,000 yard RB, and they are breaking in two new coordinators on the offensive side. I don't see how they could be laying 17.5 points here. On the other side of the ball I like East Carolina's chances to move the ball as they have a mobile QB in Holton Ahlers. Add it all up and I would not be totally shocked to see East Carolina have a shot to beat NC State in the end. |
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08-30-19 | Oklahoma State v. Oregon State +14 | 52-36 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Oregon State +13.5 2.2% play Oregon State is 19-3 all time in home openers, but this is obviously a step up in competition facing a Big 12 opponent. These two conferences have been pretty even over the years, and Oregon State is one of the PAC 12 teams I show as improving this year, especially ATS. Oklahoma State has just 12 returning starters, and I don't think they have a QB that fits Gundy's system. Gundy will be splitting between two guys, and one of them is Dru Brown, a transfer from Hawaii. The strength of both teams on defense is in the secondary, and the strength of both offenses is running the ball. I fully expect both teams to come out running the ball and that gives us more value with 13.5 point spread in my opinion with the home team. Oregon State also has much more returning this year with their top 8 tacklers on defense compared with Oklahoma State's front 7 that has to replace all 4 defensive lineman and their top two linebackers. Oklahoma State finished last in their conference in stopping the run and ranked 78th overall having gone up against an average rushing offense ranked 78th. Now Oregon State's rushing ypc doesn't look great, but that's because they took a ton of sacks. Jermar Jefferson was a stud rushing for over 1400 yards and 5.8ypc. They had over 200 yards or 5ypc against decent defenses Stanford, Washington State, Arizona State, and Ohio State. Oregon State also added some depth, which was a major issue a year ago. I think Oregon State will be able to run the ball at home particularly to the left where their LG & LT are in their 3rd year as starters against a very inexperienced front 7 of Oklahoma State. If I'm right on this we should have a close game in my opinion, because Oklahoma State although they have the talent at WR don't have the talent at QB, and they go up against Oregon State's pass defense which is the strength of their defense. Gundy is a smart coach, and I expect he'll lean on the run here in their first road game. I do think Oklahoma State's defense improves as the season goes on as they are in year #2 of Knowles 4-2-5, which is great for the Big 12, but not against a team that should have success running the ball. |
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08-30-19 | UMass v. Rutgers -15.5 | 21-48 | Win | 100 | 26 h 35 m | Show | |
Rutgers -16 2.2% play Okay so this play is not going to excite you by any means. Rutgers a 16 point favorite are you kidding me? This is the newsletter I signed up for? This is one of those ugly plays though, and I like it enough for a few different reasons. If you listened to my podcast earlier in the week you heard me talk about Umass and their coaching staff. Walt Bell takes over, and it will be his first time as a head coach, but he's also taking on play calling duties. Not an ideal situation for a first time coach, who was not very good as an offensive coordinator. He spent 16-17 with Maryland, and the offense got worst 91st, to 120th in YPP, and then last year with Florida State where they ranked 109th in YPP on offense. Last time I checked Umass does not have the talent of Maryland or Florida State and since switching to an Independent school their recruiting has also gone down, and they return only 8 starters. Rutgers closed the 2018 season with 11 straight losses, and we could not be buying any lower on this team. Your reaction to me playing Rutgers as a double digit favorite is the exact reason why I'm doing it, but more goes into it than that. Rutgers needs a feel good win to start this year, and they were in a very similar situation last year as a 16.5 point favorite to open the year against Texas State, and they won 35-7. They had another big role as a favorite in 2017 against Morgan State -41, that many people laughed at and they won 65-0. HC Chris Ash is in his 4th year here and is definitely not afraid to run it up against worse teams. Rutgers also has 8 starters back on offense, and I feel like a night game on a Friday night will motivate this team to give it their best to start the season. |
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08-30-19 | Wisconsin -10 v. South Florida | 49-0 | Win | 100 | 21 h 25 m | Show | |
Wisconsin -10.5 3.3% play This line dropped 3 points in the last day or so making it a play for me. I was hoping to catch a 10, but that does not look like it will happen. I expect the line to move back up towards 13.5 by Friday night. I'm not at all concerned with the weather as this game figures to be a slower tempo game with these two head coaches, and it's supposed to be almost 10 degrees cooler tomorrow night in Tampa than tonight. South Florida returns 9 starters on offense, but I don't think I can get too excited about that as they just were not a good offense last year vs. good defenses. They faced a ton of bad defenses, and scored points, but against top 60 defenses they averaged just 17 points per game. Their QB Blake Barnett (Alabama transfer) completed just 53% of his passes for 206 yards per game, with 5 TD/4INT's. Their running game produced just 3.4 yards per game, and here they go up against a Wisconsin defense that is hungry to prove they are back to the 2017 version where they were fully healthy. On the flip side of the ball Wisconsin offense is led by the best RB in college football in Jonathan Taylor, and I expect they should be able to run all over South Florida. Against top 50 rushing offenses South Florida allowed 303 yards rushing per game, and nearly 4 rushign TD's a game and gave up 34 points per game. Wisconsin last year rushed for over 300 yards in 6 games last year and averaged 41.33 ppg going 6-0 and winning by 21 points per game. |
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08-29-19 | UCLA +3 v. Cincinnati | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 56 m | Show |
UCLA +3 4.4% NCAAF POD 3’s popped up again at a few locations, and I’m going to grab the Bruins here. These two opened up the 2018 season @ UCLA, and the Bruins had hype with Chip Kelly taking over, and were 14 point favorites, and lost outright. I see a bit of revenge here for UCLA, and I don’t really think that there is an 11 point difference between these two teams from last year. UCLA was breaking in an entirely new system, and they lost their QB halfway through the game. This season they return 19 starters, and are in Chip Kelly’s second year of the system, and we saw improvements down the stretch as the offense averaged 432 yards per game over their last 8 compared to 312 over the first 4. They also faced a top 10 strength of schedule. Power 5 head coaches have done really well in their second year as a dog over the past 4 years 99-80 ATS, and I like the fact that UCLA is getting points here. Cincinnati had a great year last year and I have been extremely impressed with Luke Fickell taking Cinci to an 11-2 season a year ago. They had one of the weaker schedules however, and when you compare against UCLA it is very obvious. Cincinnati's offense faced an average 75th ranked YPP defense, compared to UCLA’S 40TH opponent average. Their defense faced an average 67th opponent YPP offense, and that is inflated by facing Central Florida. Compare that against UCLA opponent offense ranking 53rd. It’s also worth noting that Cinci has a much bigger game on deck at Ohio State. |
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08-24-19 | Florida v. Miami-FL +7.5 | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 51 h 29 m | Show | |
Miami +7.5 3.3% play Florida is off a 10 win season and getting plenty of hype ranking #8 in the AP polls, but return 13 starters compared to 19 a season ago. I see a lot of red flags with this team coming into the year. Also, teams in the AP TOP 10 don't particularly do well over the season, or over the first 3 games. In fact only 28 of the 70 teams over the last 7 years have had a winning record ATS over the first 3 games. Florida offensively is the huge question mark as they break in 4 new starters on the offensive line, and they get a bad match up to start the year against Miami's talented front 7. I don't expect a crazy game plan here from Florida. I do see them trying to connect early on a big play or two, but turnovers could be a reason if they are not careful that they lose this game outright. Feleipe Franks looked good down the stretch, but he really hasn't proven anything against a good defense, and with the loss of 141 career starts on the offensive line I think he's going to have a rough go of it against Miami's defense. Miami has similar question marks on offense, with two freshman tackles, and a freshman QB starting in Jeron Williams. Williams is a highly touted, dual threat QB, and with Dan Enos taking over as the offensive coordinator I'm confident that he will have a very good season. Enos previously at Alabama as the QB coach did pretty well with a freshman QB in Tua. I don't see them cutting him completely lose here, and do expect Florida's defense to hold Miami in check as both offenses have a conservative approach. We have a low total and 7.5 points looks really good. The red flags that I mentioned are possible player suspensions on the Florida side. You can almost guarantee that there will be some, and Dan Mullen said those would not be announced until Saturday. Florida already has depth issues on this roster, and playing August 24th, in the heat with one less week of conditioning is going to be a major issue in this game especially late. Dan Enos offense also put up big numbers when he was with Arkansas against Dan Mullen's Miss State defenses so these two know each other well, and that's even more reason to expect a close game to open up the season on Saturday night. |
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01-20-19 | Patriots +3 v. Chiefs | 37-31 | Win | 105 | 51 h 38 m | Show | |
Patriots +3.5 -125 4% play |
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01-20-19 | Rams v. Saints -3 | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -116 | 47 h 5 m | Show |
Saints -3 5.5% NFL POD |
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01-13-19 | Chargers v. Patriots -4 | Top | 28-41 | Win | 100 | 27 h 24 m | Show |
Patriots -4 5.5% NFL POD |
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01-12-19 | Cowboys +7 v. Rams | Top | 22-30 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
Cowboys +7 4.4% POD |
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01-12-19 | Colts +5.5 v. Chiefs | 13-31 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
Colts +5.5 3.3% play |
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01-07-19 | Alabama v. Clemson +6 | Top | 16-44 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
Clemson +6 5.5% NCAAF POD I absolutely think Clemson has the ingredients to upset Alabama. Alabama has shown some vulnerabilities in the last few games against worse teams. Looking at Clemson’s body of work and statistical resume, they mostly mirror Georgia on offense, and Miss State on defense. Georgia has a weakness in stopping the run, and Alabama exploited it as they rank 53rd while Clemson ranks #1. Miss State who held Alabama to 24 points in their own building has one weakness and that’s the QB play, and we already know that Trevor Lawrence is cool calm, and has an NFL arm. He threw for 327 yards against Notre Dame, a team that ranked 4th vs. the pass. Alabama’s secondary is definitely vulnerable as they lost a ton of talent to the NFL last year. They really only played two offenses that could run and pass all year. That came against Georgia and Oklahoma who both put up big offensive numbers on them. Oklahoma got behind 28-0, but out played Alabama in quarters 2, 3, and 4. Clemson also has an advantage as Alabama ranks 72nd in explosive defense. They rank 46th in explosive run defense specifically, so Clemson, a team that has talent at WR with Tee Higgins, a big body guy, Justyn Ross, the speedy guy, Amari Rodgers and Hunter Renfro the third down guys to go along with Travis Etienne at RB and QB Trevor Lawrence runs the RPO as good as anyone I have seen all year.
Alabama’s offense is their best that I can ever remember, but they face the best defense they have faced all year in this game. The front 7 is the strength of Clemson, and at some point Tua is going to have to make plays in this game. I do think the weakness for Clemson is in pass defense, but it’s hard to even know that for sure as they also did not play in a lot of close games, but Jake Bentley, South Carolina put up 35 points and 510 yards passing including a couple of plays over 67 yards. I think Tua will have a big play or two in this game so if you have a prop option to take him over 45 yards for longest pass I would take it. Clemson does have an explosive defense ranked 11t in allowing explosive plays, but I think their schedule has a lot to do with it. Clemson did not face a balanced offense all year until Notre Dame, but Notre Dame’s weakness offensively was running the ball ranking 45th. Clemson has shut down the 3 top 20 rushing offenses they faced, but all 3 did not have any QB play with Georgia Tech, Georgia Southern, and Pitt combining for 38 total points. Again value for the over, because we have seen Clemson struggle against a team that can throw the ball.
Common opponents - Texas A&M, and Louisville. You could argue Alabama played better against A&M, and Clemson played better against Louisville. Clemson actually played better in the trenches on the road than Alabama did at home. Clemson +44 yards holding A&M to 71 yards rushing while Alabama -21 yards giving up 130 rushing yards. Clemson also started Kelly Bryant at QB in that game, and it was their first road game against Jimbo Fisher who was very experienced in facing Clemson. Against Louisville, Alabama had an advantage of preparing for them all off season and they out gained them running the ball 222 to 16. Clemson, outgained them on the ground 492 to 81 yards.
The key here is going to be pass rush for both teams. Christina Miller is ? for Alabama with a hamstring and I have a hard time believing if he plays he will be effective, and will probably hurt it again. Clemson’s Dexter Lawrence is suspended, but his spot is given up to Sr. Albert Huggins, a better pass rusher which I feel helps them more in this matchup. I think Tua is going to make a mistake in this game. We saw Georgia really pressure Tua and their pass rush ranked 88th. I think DC Venables can take a lot from that matchup and Tua tends to rush some decisions and try to play hero which could lead to a turnover in this game. Down the stretch Alabama was -3 in TO margin over their last 6 games while Clemson was +3 over their last 6 games.
Special Teams edge to Alabama, but their punter is not good, and Nick Saban does not really have a lot of confidence in his kicker. Alabama has the potential to return a kick for a TD, as Clemson has given up 2 this season. I give Clemson the edge in the red zone as they have better #’s for TD % on both offense and defense with a total edge of 20% and their offense has only improved since Lawrence took over. They also have been penalized fewer. Alabama was penalized 9 times in their game against Oklahoma which clearly cost them the cover. Last but not least is coaching. Obviously Nick Saban is going to get the edge over Dabo Swinney, but when Saban does not have extra time to prepare which he doesn’t here his defense has not played well against Clemson. In the first National Championship Saban knew this and had to steal a possession by kicking an onside kick, and the next year Clemson won on the last play of the game 35-31. I think both of these offenses have been better than those two games. Last year Clemson’s offense was completely one dimensional and they lost 24-6 with Saban having extra time to prepare. However, the assistants is the key here, and they have a HUGE advantage for Clemson. This is the 4th time in 4 years they are strategizing for this game. Clemson has 2 co-OC’s who have been here since 2015 as Jeff Scott and Tony Elliott are having their best season. They will go up against an inexperienced Alabama DC in Tosh Lupoi, 2nd year, and Pete Golding 1st year. Alabama also has a first time offensive coordinator in MIke Locksley who also has already taken the Maryland job. He’s done a great job, but he goes up against Brent Venable who has been with Clemson since 2012. |
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01-06-19 | Eagles v. Bears -6.5 | 16-15 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
Bears -6.5 2.2% play |
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01-06-19 | Chargers +3 v. Ravens | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 2 h 16 m | Show |
Chargers +3 4.4% NFL POD |
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01-05-19 | Colts v. Texans -1.5 | 21-7 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
TEXANS -1.5 3.3% PLAY |
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01-01-19 | Texas v. Georgia -11.5 | 28-21 | Loss | -111 | 3 h 19 m | Show | |
Georgia -12 2.2% play I think Georgia is excited to be here, and I think they have a point to prove against Big 12 runner up in Texas. Texas seems like they are on their way back and they have had a nice season, and Tom Herman is 12-3 ATS as a dog as a head coach, but I think they are going to really have issues here against Georgia. I don't think they will be able to get off the field here, as Georgia has one of the best third down offenses, and Texas offense is one dimensional. Georgia will have issues with the tall receivers from Texas with their star CB sitting this one out, but I don't think it will matter I see Georgia scoring 40+ points here with their elite offense which ranked 6th compared to Texas who ranked 67th. Texas also feasted on a very easy schedule, and really didn't play any defenses that were this good against the pass. I think Georgia cruises 45-24. |
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01-01-19 | Washington +7 v. Ohio State | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 24 h 32 m | Show | |
Washington +7 3.3% play If you don't have a +7 right now at your book you should get one with nearly 70% of the best on Ohio State, based on their last 2 games alone, and Urban Meyer's last game, but Washington is not going to just hand them this game. This is a Washington team that prides themselves on developing and recruiting NFL caliber corner backs, and I think that gives them the edge in this match-up going up against Ohio State's #3 passing game behind Haskins who had an unbelievable season. Washington can also stop the run, and have edges on defense. Washington runs a different defense than MIchigan, who Ohio State lit up to end the season. That Michigan win looks a lot less impressive now when you factor in Michigan got blown out in their bowl game too. Washington has not had a bad game and all of their losses came by less than the TD with losses of 5, 3, and 2 points. Where I think Washington has the biggest advantage is in the running game. Myles Gaskin should have a big day here going up against Ohio State's 81st ranked defense. I also think the innovative offensive mind of Chris Peterson should be huge here as Ohio State ranked 124th in explosive plays allowed. Washington on the flip side ranks 3rd in explosive plays allowed which is a big part of Ohio State's offense. While I think Big Ten is the bigger conference, I feel like this spread should be more like 3-4 points and it's at 7. |
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01-01-19 | Kentucky +6.5 v. Penn State | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show | |
Kentucky +6 NCAAF POD Just 36% of bettors are backing Kentucky here, as many feel like they were a fraudulent team. I backed this team many times and faded them in the Tennessee game they lost to end the year following their loss against Georgia. This is an emotional team and a team that is highly motivated to get to 10 wins, which would be a first in 40 years. Kentucky is a senior laden team especially on defense. A couple of those guys came back when they could have played in the NFL and left early, and again they could sit out this game, but they are playing this game, because it means something to them as Josh Allen has never won a bowl game. Kentucky's offense is the reason nobody wants to back them, but with Bennie Snell a little more healthy here, and motivating his team along with Terry Wilson, a mobile QB who has shown flashes with his arm at points this season. Penn State's defense which is young has not faced a mobile QB All year except MIchigan's Shea Patterson who rushed for 42 yards and a TD as they gave up 42 points. Wilson is much more dynamic, and I think he could be the difference maker here. Penn State's defense gave up over 2,000 yards rushing this year. They were not terrible, but they definitely can be run on, and Kentucky has dominated the line of scrimmage against far better defenses including Florida, and Miss State. A Florida team they beat on the road that just got done dominated Michigan, a team that beat Penn State 42-7. Penn State has Trace McSorley playing in his last game, but they are used to playing in bigger games, and against bigger programs. I don't see how this game excites them and I don't think they'll be able to match Kentucky's intensity here. At the end of the day the large spread is all about perception. These teams are very similar in a lot categories including success rate differential which Kentucky is +5.2% compared to Penn State at +5.6%. |
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01-01-19 | LSU -7 v. Central Florida | 40-32 | Win | 100 | 1 h 8 m | Show | |
LSU -7.5 3.3% PLAY The AAC is getting too much credit this bowl season, and they have not showed up, 0-5 ATS. They have losses of 18, 3, 56, and 29 this bowl season. They went 0-2 vs. the SEC in the regular season losing by 27.5 points. LSU played the far tougher schedule, and arguably the toughest in the country. The one thing about LSU that we know is the fact that they play hard for Ed Oregeron no matter the situation. I really can't say that about Auburn, a team that Central Florida beat last year. Central Florida has also done a lot of talking this past year so I think if LSU has an opportunity to run it up here they absolutely will. I don't know how anyone could back UCF in this game, and I did back them their last 2 games of the season, but this is stepping it up in competition. Over their last 5 games they allowed 290 yards rushing a game. It's a major weakness for Central Florida's defense which is not nearly as good as the unit from a season ago. Central Florida will have a tough time stopping LSU, and if LSU can control the game they should win by double digits. I think Joe Burrow at QB is going to have a big day running the ball here, and nobody is talking about it. UCF also is starting a backup QB in Mack. He did impress me with his legs, and arm against Memphis, but Memphis has the 79th ranked pass defense. LSU has a top 10 unit, and even with guys missing the game they should press the receivers at the line. We will know right away with Dave Aranda's style if they will be able to dominate the game. I am betting they will. Central Florida relies on big plays, and LSU ranks 14th in explosive defense. |
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01-01-19 | Iowa +7.5 v. Mississippi State | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 20 h 42 m | Show | |
Iowa +7.5 3.3% play Iowa played few defenses that would be considered top 25 at the time and they averaged 13.3 points per game. For sure this is the best defense they have faced in Miss State, but Miss State has to score points as well, and their offense against elite defenses averaged just 7.8 points per game over 5 games. Miss State has a one dimensional attack with NIck Fitzgerald running the ball, something Iowa which ranks 10th in yards per play defense, and 13th against the run will be able to contain. This is the best rushing defense Iowa has had in a few years, and their defensive line is going to play with a chip on their shoulders here. All we have heard is Miss State's defensive line is great, but Iowa's DE Darker Hesse and AJ Epenesa lead a group that is 18th in sack %, and they go up against Miss State, a team that ranks 110th in protection. This is a low total so grabbing Iowa at +7.5 with a total of 41 is worth taking. |
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12-31-18 | NC State v. Texas A&M -7 | 13-52 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
Texas A&M -7 -115 3.5% play These two teams are heading in opposite directions right now. A&M is trending, and they will face an NC State with their best skill player on offense in Harmon WR, and LB in Pratt sitting out along with their OC who will be there, but took the App State job. A&M's weakness is pass defense, and finishing games, and that's what they focused on in bowl prep, and I think it makes a difference especially since Jimbo Fisher is very familiar along with DC Mike Elko from their time in the ACC preparing for NC State. NC State has the veteran QB in Finley heading to the NFL, but they still need to run the ball well to make him successful. In their 3 losses they ran for just 2.52 ypc, and here they face a similar run defense to Clemson where they scored just 7 points. A&M ranks 11th in run defense, and that ranking comes while facing a tough opponent rushing offense ranking 45th in rushing yards per carry. This could create a few third and longs, that will be the difference in this game in my opinion. NC State's secondary is not very good either. They faced a very weak SOS ont he season with an opposing QB rating on average around 83, and rank 61st. They really haven't played any balanced offenses with the exception of Clemson who won 41-7. A&M has an elite RB in Williams, a growing QB who can make all the throws in Mond, an emerging WR's who are sophomores. Mond, also a threat to run which makes this offense even more challenging to defend. The SEC also a perfect 7-0 ATS vs. the ACC This season. |
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12-31-18 | Missouri -8.5 v. Oklahoma State | 33-38 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 41 m | Show | |
Missouri -9 1.1% Free Play This is the worst Oklahoma State defense in over a decade and they are going up against a balanced offenses which is something they have only experienced once this year, and they gave up 48 points to Oklahoma. If Mike Gundy was not on the other sideline this would be a larger play, but I totally respect what Gundy has done here, and he is 8-4 in bowl games. With all of that said Oklahoma State is a popular dog, and those type of teams we like to stay away from in bowl season. Oklahoma State, can be shut down on the ground against a Missouri run defense that ranks 28th, and that's against a very tough schedule with average rushing offenses ranked 42.5 on the season. Here they face Oklahoma State who ranked 62nd, but are without their top RB and best offensive player Justice Hill. When this team did not run for 200 yards they went 2-5 on the season. Oklahoma State's 26th ranked offense is a bit over rated when you factor in they haven't played many good defenses. Average opponent defense ranking 79.09 in ypp defense. This spread makes a lot of sense when you start digging, because if Oklahoma State can't run the ball, they will be in third and longs and they rank 73rd at protecting the QB. They also are 114th in TO margin to go along with the worst defense they have had in a while they also are one of the better teams in terms of TO margin. They were -8 this year, but in the past few years they were +3, +11, +13. |
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12-31-18 | Michigan State +1.5 v. Oregon | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
Michigan State +1.5 5.5% POD It has been a rough go of it with these max plays, and we got very unlikely in my opinion and should have covered with Alabama -14, and Iowa State +125, Iowa State covered on the spread not the ML. Here we are again, and I am going to back the team with the better defense. There is value on Michigan State in my opinion. The discussion will be how bad their offense has been, but they have had a ton of injuries, and coming into this game I would predict that they have some things figured out. I expect they will get back to running the ball with LJ Scott expected to go along with QB Brian Lewerke. Oregon's weakness is in run defense. They ranked 48th in rushing yards per carry, but they faced a very easy schedule with an opponent ypc average of 83rd. Compare that with MIchigan State's run defense which ranks 2nd facing an opponent ypc average of 49.16. When held under 4 yards per carry, Oregon is only 1-4 this season with the only win coming against San Jose State. Michigan State has only allowed 1 team over that mark, Penn State, a game they still won on the road. Michigan State has faced 5 really good offenses, and they held up in each one against OHio State, Penn State, Purdue, Arizona State, and Nebraska allowing 16.2 ppg on average in those games. There is no reason to believe they can't do the same here. I think their offense is undervalued because of the injuries. The extra time off allowed Michigan State to get healthier, but also work in some of the younger guys with confidence at the skill position. Watch out for Darrell Stewart, who only had 368 yards receiving on the season to have a big day. Also Mark D'antoio a far better coach than Cristobal. He's 5-1 SU & ATS in bowl games over the past 6 years with their only loss to Alabama. Oregon lost as a big favorite 28-38 to Boise a season ago. |
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12-31-18 | Virginia Tech +7 v. Cincinnati | 31-35 | Win | 100 | 2 h 44 m | Show | |
Virginia Tech +7 3.3% play This one just touched 7, and I have to grab it. There are a few things I like about this match-up including the fact that the ACC has actually done poorly against P5 conferences, but have dominated the group of 5 going 18-4 +15.7 ppg, and 12-9-2 ATS, + 2-0 ATS with 2 outright upsets as a dog in the bowl games with Wake Forest & Duke coming up with upsets against G5 conferences. The public is all over Cincinnati right now as I have two sources at 56 and 58%, but I'm not buying it. Virginia Tech lost key starters on the defense, a thin group, and left them with a very young defense which clearly showed as DC Bud Foster had a rough year, but with young players that are talented they just need extra reps. They have had a ton of extra practices, and I think this team is motivated to win this bowl game and finish with a winning record. I don't see this young Hokies team wanting to be the first team since 1992 to finish with a losing record. Also, I love backing teams that were 5-6 fighting to get to a bowl game. Those teams since 2008 are an incredible 42-21 ATS in their bowl games. Virginia Tech has the edge on offense, and played their best two games to close the year against similar competition to Cincinnati. They beat a good Virginia team, a team that just dominated an SEC team, and they beat a group of 5 team by 21 points in Marshall. Both of those teams were top 50 defenses much like Cincinnati and Virginia Tech put up 30+ points. Justin Fuente is a great offensive mind and is 2-1 in bowl games. I think it would be hard for Cinci to win this by more than a TD. Virginia Tech also has edges in special teams and TO Margin, and their fans travel well, and they are 225 miles closer to this stadium. I feel like they will have the crowd edge to go along with all of this. I won't be shocked if the Hokies pull the upset. |
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12-30-18 | Bengals +14.5 v. Steelers | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show | |
Bengals +14 1.1% Free play |
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12-30-18 | Bears v. Vikings -6 | 24-10 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Vikings -6 2.2% play |
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12-30-18 | Eagles v. Redskins +6.5 | 24-0 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
Redskins +6.5 2.2% play |
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12-30-18 | Cowboys +7 v. Giants | 36-35 | Win | 100 | 2 h 24 m | Show | |
Cowboys +260 3% play |
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12-29-18 | Oklahoma v. Alabama -14 | Top | 34-45 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 36 m | Show |
Alabama -14 5.5% NCAAF POD Alabama with extra preparation under Nick Saban has been a very profitable ATS situation. I think Alabama's defense really plays a great game here and give Oklahoma and Kyler Murray issues all day. I think there is something to be said about Oklahoma getting the Heisman Trophy award to Kyler Murray over Tua, and Oklahoma getting the Joe Moore award for the best offensive line. The last two times Alabama was a double digit favorite in the playoff they won by 17 and 38 points. Nick Saban is not going to keep his foot off the gas here knowing how dangerous the Oklahoma offense is. There will be talks about Alabama's struggles against mobile QB's, but that is old news. Alabama now prepares against 2 mobile QB's in practice with Jalen Hurts, and Tua, and this is extra time for Alabama to prepare for Murray. Alabama certainly has the athletes to contain Murry on the outside, and I think the defense dominates this game while Alabama's offense may not punt in this game. I think the -14 is giving us value here as Alabama did not play great down the stretch, but the time off gives them a chance to regroup offensively. |
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12-29-18 | Notre Dame +11.5 v. Clemson | 3-30 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
Notre Dame +11.5 3.3% play These are two similar teams with similar strength of schedules that are not great SOS's. Their opponent YPP differential are both -.225 & -.26. Notre Dame in my opinion had the slightly tougher schedule with their travel situation which featured 2 west coast trips, and having Michigan to start the year. The ACC, the conference that Clemson plays in was down this year. They have looked great in games against the group of 5, but against Power 5 Conferences the ACC is 0-3 with losses of 32, 24, and 16 points. The two games Clemson stepped out of conference play were against 2 SEC opponents, and they gave up 510 and 600 yards. Speaking of the SEC, Notre Dame last year beat LSU in their bowl game, and lost to Georgia by only 1 point. I think this is just far too many points and the line should be around 7-8 points. Both teams lean on their run, but will need to lean on their QB play at some point to win this game, and when we look at what each pass defense has done against top 60 passing offenses there is no question Notre Dame played better. They both played 3 top 60 passing offenses. Clemson played an average opponent passing offense in ranking 32.6 in QBR in those 3 games, and allowed 378 yards/game and 8 TD and 3 INT's. Notre Dame comes into this game ranking 24th. Notre Dame's defense faced 3 top passing offenses ranking on average 22nd, and Notre Dame allowed just 249.6 yards per game, 2 TD and 3 INT's. So why is Clemson heavily favored? I think it's perception, and the fact that the last time Notre Dame was in a spot like this they got kicked off the field by Alabama in 2012 losing 42-14. These two teams have 4 common opponents i Wake Forest, Syracuse, Florida State, and Pitt. Clemson was an impressive +275 yards per game, and outscored them 191-46. While Notre Dame +168 yards per game and outscored them 153-57. That difference of 107 yards equates to 9 points for Clemson's offense and just 5.57 points for Notre Dame's defense when we factor in yards per point. Notre Dame also has edges in special teams, and TO margin ranking which should factor in this game. I know the public seems to be on the Irish, but I think Clemson could be looking past this game a bit to Alabama. That sounds like crazy, but these kids know they are DD favorites, and want Alabama badly. They also have player 3 player suspensions leading up to this game. At the end of the day I think Notre Dame who is being over looked will have a shot to win this game if they play their best game. |
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12-29-18 | Arkansas State +1 v. Nevada | 13-16 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 49 m | Show | |
Arkansas State +1 3.3% play Arkansas State has been very goo din non conference games, and I trust them more in a spot they are familiar with as Nevada has not been to a bowl since 2013. Nevada plays in the better conference, I'll admit, but it's very much front loaded with teams like Utah State, Fresno State, and Boise. After those 3 teams it goes down hill fast in my opinion. Arkansas State lost to some pretty good teams this year including Alabama, Georgia Southern, and App State. There is no shame there at all. The big advantage here in my opinion is Nevada an inconsistent team turns the ball over far too much. Ranking 108th in TO margin compared to Arkansas State who ranks 14th. I think that will be a difference here, and I think Arkansas State has played the far tougher schedule, and they have a +7.10 % success rate on the season compared to Nevada at 2.7%. Arkansas State, has a future NFL caliber QB in Justin Hansen who has gotten better year by year. He finished the year with 27 TD and just 6 INT's. The Sun Belt's top teams have performed very well this bowl season and have gone 3-1 SU, and I expect it to be 4-1 after this game. |
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12-29-18 | Florida +6 v. Michigan | 41-15 | Win | 100 | 20 h 25 m | Show | |
Florida +6 3.3% play & ML at +210 for 1% play Florida has all of the motivation here, and it's evident by their NFL prospects playing in this game and not sitting out while Michigan has 4 key guys starting out. Starting Tackle, RB Higdon, and their two best defensive players in Gary & Bush. Michigan also has no motivation to beat Florida as they have beaten them the last two years without any issues, while Florida will want to cap their season get to 10 wins by beating a team they have lost to the last two years. Dan Mullen is 5-2 in bowl games and I would argue they have the better coach in this one. The key for Florida is the ability to run the ball and I think they can run the ball. They ranked 24th in yards per carry this season, and down the stretch Michigan gave up a lot of rushing yards against below average rushing offenses in Rutgers, Indiana, and Ohio State combining for 5.08 yards per carry, and all rushed for over 170 yards. Florida also has the speed to beat man to man, which is something they will see and Feleipe Franks is a much better QB this year than what Michigan saw to open last season. Michigan's offense without Higdon will be a difference maker in my opinion, and I think Florida who has a very good defense will give Shea Patterson issues. Michigan only average 19 points per game against top 25 defenses this year. I consider Florida a top 25 defense that can get to the QB. Their weakness is maybe stopping the run, but in a powerful SEC conference it's no surprise that they struggled at times. The SEC went 9-2 ATS against other Power 5 conferences this year compared to the Big Ten which went 6-6. I think Florida has a shot to win this game, and if I like them at +6 I have to play the ML as there has been a lot variance this bowl season. |
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12-29-18 | South Carolina -3.5 v. Virginia | 0-28 | Loss | -106 | 1 h 34 m | Show | |
South Carolina -3.5 1.1% Free Pick I don't agree with this line move at all. I know there are guys sitting out for South Carolina, but I still think this is a team from a far superior conference. This season the ACC went 4-8 in the regular season vs. other power 5 conferences which includes 3-8-1 ATS and -5.38 points per game. Add in the bowl season and that number balloons to 3-11-1 ATS and -9.1 points per game. The SEC has been the more dominated conference, and South Carolina was picked by many to be the dark horse in the SEC East. Virginia has had a nice season, but the way they gave away two games lat against Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech, and the fact that this game is just 90 miles away from South Carolina's campus gives me a great value on South Carolina now that the line has dropped below 4 points. This is a South Carolina team that put up 35 points on the Clemson defense. |
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12-28-18 | Auburn v. Purdue +3.5 | 63-14 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 22 m | Show | |
Purdue +3.5 2.2% play It's very obvious that Purdue will be the team with more motivation. Their fanbase and alumn have gobbled up most of the tickets for this game, and with the news of Jeff Brohm remaining at Purdue, instead of going back to Louisville there is a lot to be excited about. This is an emotional team that has come up big in big moments. This is a chance to finish the season, beat an SEC team, and finish with a winning record. Their honorary captain Tyler Trent will be there, and that should only motivate this team more. Guz Malzhan, in an effort to safe his own ass fired the offensive coordinator and is taking over the offensive play calling for this game, but they still have issues along the offensive line, and Purdue's defense also, an aggressive style that could give this offensive line issues. Purdue's offense is the biggest reason I'm backing them. They should be able to score points and Rondale Moore should have a big game, against an Auburn defense that is 87th in explosive defense, and even worse on standard downs. Jeff Brohm, is an excellent play caller and I expect that they'll be able to put up points, he's 8-2 ATS as a dog with 5 outright upsets. Make it #6. |
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12-27-18 | Miami-FL -2.5 v. Wisconsin | 3-35 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
Miami -2.5 2.2% Play Both of these teams were in the pre-season Top 10 and have had disappointing seasons. Miami played Wisconsin in Miami in their bowl game last year and blew a 10 point lead. I think they want revenge, and Wisconsin doesn't have a QB to bring them back from that type of a deficit. Wisconsin also a shell of themselves on defense this year, and the offense turns the ball over far too often. I expect Miami to get a couple turnovers, and they are an emotional team that should really feed into the motivation of revenge. I do worry about the cold, but 40 degrees in NY this time of year is not bad. Miami is starting Malik Rosier who gets a second chance and Mark Richt has also been very good in bowl games. This is an opportunity to also send Manny Diaz the DC for Miami out a winner, and I think the defense plays well for him here. |
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12-27-18 | Duke +4 v. Temple | Top | 56-27 | Win | 100 | 3 h 50 m | Show |
Duke +3.5 -105 4.5% NCAAF POD There is a lot to unpack in this game, but I am going to start with bettin value. Duke lost it's last two games by a combined score of 94-13. They lost their last game by 30+ and Temple won their last game by 30+, Value on Duke here, who was really unhealthy down the stretch, and I think Daniel Jones their NFL caliber QB was hurt all season long, and the extra time to rest is certainly a good thing for this offense. They have a key player on the defense in Giles-Harris who is questionable, but I'm betting he plays along with Humphreys who are two key players on the defense. THey are NFL caliber LB's, and I'm not worried about them sitting out to protect their health for a possible NFL draft. Humphrey's said - "I don't think that's a Duke thing," Humphreys said Tuesday. "We're going to play every game that we can. We're going to do it because we love the guys around us. I don't think that will happen at Duke." The defense is healthier, they started the season allowing just 341 yards the first 7 games, and allowed 529 the last 5. I think that changes here. Duke, and coach David Cutcliffe with extra time to prepare has been a different team. Cutcliffe is 8-2 ATS in his career in bowl games, and at Duke he has eclipsed 31 points each time they have gotten here. There is concern that Duke's offense won't show up, but in two games against decent opponents Temple gave up 45 points to Boston College, and 52 to Central Florida. I'm not going to buy in too much to Duke's offensive struggles as injuries to their QB had a big impact on their stats this season. Temple also has an interim coach Ed Foley, who will not get the job, but I hear is very pumped up for this bowl game. He was in 2016 as well in a similar situation where Temple won their last 6 games, they won 6 of 7 here, and they lost to Wake Forest, an ACC team as 12 point favorites. Here they are 3.5 point favorites against another ACC team. The ACC went 18-4 +15.7 points per game and 12-9-2 ATS vs. Group of 5 teams, and as mentioned before Temple did not win or cover in their only game against the ACC this year. To put a bow on this game. Temple needs to force turnovers to win. They forced 12 in their final 3 games, but Duke has only turned the ball over 17 times all season. Temple +10 in wins and -5 in losses. Temple, I think more likely to lose the TO battle as they have turned the ball over in every game this season. Temple also committing +3.5 more penalties, they are worse in third down offense, defense and red zone offense TD%. I think the wrong team is favored. If I hear Giles-Harris is a GO, I'll be back for a ML play. |
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12-26-18 | TCU +1.5 v. California | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
TCU +105 4% NCAAF POD I think the Big 12 a much better conference this year than the PAC 12, as the Big 12 went 14-6 and 11-8-1 ATS vs. non-conference opponents compared to the Pac 12 which went 11-9, and 9-11-1 ATS. Against P5 opponents they were -12.4 points per game, and the Big 12 was +2.98. Gary Patterson, TCU's head coach 9-7 in bowl games, and has never lost to the PAC 12 with a perfect 6-0 record. His team played in bowl type games down the stretch and won as a big dog against Oklahoma State sending them to a bowl game. Teams in that situation are typically good bets in bowl season. TCU also 4-8 ATS, since 2005 teams that don't cover 33% of their games in the regular season but still get to a bowl game are covering 59% ATS in their bowl game. TCU's season got away from them in a 4 game stretch in which they turned the ball over 13 times, which is over half of their 22 TO's on the season. IN wins they are +6 TO margin, and -12 in losses. Cal, actually turned the ball over more than TCU with 26 TO's, and I think TCU can win that again here as they turned the ball over much less down the stretch, and when they moved to Sr. QB Muehlstein, a Sr. with not a lot of talent, but knowledge of this offense they did not turn the ball over much. With two elite defense taking the field here you have to look at Cal's offense which averaged just 15 points per game against top 40 defenses. TCU offense features an explosive player that can take over the game in Jalen Reagor, an impressive player, just go look at the Oklahoma State game. Nonetheless, Cal is very aware of him, and I expect an experienced HC in Gary Patterson to use him as a decoy, and that could get them some offense. I really don't understand why Cal is favored. The defenses are about equal, TCU's offense is just a tad better, and they have the more experienced coach. TCU also with the tougher schedul facing 9 bowl teams vs. Cal's 5, and have the advantage on the offensive and defensive line despite the injuries they have fought through. Patterson, wants to finish the season with a winning record and bowl teams who are 6-6 have traditionally done very well in bowl games. |
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12-23-18 | Bears v. 49ers +4.5 | 14-9 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
49ers +4.5 1.1% Free Play |
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12-23-18 | Texans +2.5 v. Eagles | 30-32 | Win | 100 | 3 h 44 m | Show | |
Vikings -1 / Texans +8.5 4.4% Teaser |
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12-23-18 | Packers -2.5 v. Jets | Top | 44-38 | Win | 100 | 3 h 54 m | Show |
Packers -2.5 -115 5.5% NFL POD |
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12-22-18 | Houston v. Army -5 | 14-70 | Win | 100 | 26 h 33 m | Show | |
Army -5 1.1% Free Play Well known is the fact that Houston has lost their best defensive player Ed Oliver, and best offensive player QB King for this game. That's factored into the line here, and HOuston fired their defensive coordinator while Army's left for the North Carolina job. I think the Army DC being lost is not as big of a deal when you factor in how well these kids know the defense with a lot of experience on that side of the ball. Their strength is defending the run, and that's what Houston will need to do in this game. Houston not the same without King, and their defense has suffered from being on the field too much. They lost 3 of their last 4 games by 10, 14, and 21, and I expect a similar situation here as Army is better on 3rd down, 4th down, and in the Red Zone. They also should dominate the time of posession as they are #1 in the country compared to Houston's 130th ranking. Jeff Monken is an excellent coach, and Army travels well to Texas this is their third year heading to Texas for a bowl game where many of their players are from. They have traveled to Texas 5 times over the last 2 years and average 48.8 points per game when they come here. I could see them putting a 42 points up in this one as Houston's defense is missing 4 defensive lineman. Gave up 300 yards rushing to Navy earlier in the year and 36 points. |
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12-17-18 | Saints v. Panthers +6.5 | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
Panthers +6.5 3.3% Play |
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12-16-18 | Seahawks v. 49ers +3.5 | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
49ers +3.5 5.5% NFL POD |
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12-16-18 | Cowboys v. Colts -3 | 0-23 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show | |
Colts -3 -115 3.5% play |
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12-16-18 | Lions v. Bills -2.5 | 13-14 | Loss | -119 | 3 h 34 m | Show | |
Bills -2.5 -115 3.3% Play |
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12-15-18 | Middle Tennessee State +7 v. Appalachian State | Top | 13-45 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 24 m | Show |
MTSU +7 5.5% NCAAF POD Conference USA runner up Middle Tennessee vs. Sunbelt Champion App State. I voted Sunbelt as the better overall conference, but I feel like MTSU has more motivation here when you factor in Father and Son QB & Coach will be playing in their last game together for Middle Tennessee. The Stockstill’s have had a solid 4 year run, and they go up against another Sun Belt team in a bowl game. Last year they beat Arkansas State. App State loses their head coach to Louisville and DC- Mark Ivey will take over here. Middle Tennessee has put up pretty good offensive and defensive numbers this year despite having played 3 teams from the best conference in the nation in the SEC. Strength of schedule clearly on the side of Middle Tennessee. When you look at these conferences they are pretty close, but CUSA challenges themselves more with 23 games this season vs. the Power 5 and 11 vs. the SEC where they went 7-4 ATS. The Sun Belt on the other hand just 12 games vs. the Power 5 and went 3-9 ATS. Yet this is clearly the best team from the Sun Belt, but I think losing your head coach Scott Satterfeld is a big lose, he was the coach here for 5 years, and all of these players played for him now suddenly he’s gone. The team just won the Sun Belt Championship game which was the inaugural game. They beat a team that was 116th in yards per play allowed, and a team that could not stop the run ranking 99th. MIddle Tennessee comes into this game with stronger #s and match up better in my opinion. App State’s defensive weakness is against the pass, and that’s what MIddle Tennessee does best with Stockstill at QB. On the flip side App State’s strength of running the ball has gotten weaker over the last few weeks. Really ever since they lost Jalin Moore the team hasn’t been the same offensively. They will go up against a 60th ranked defense that is better than that ranking when you factor in they have faced 3 SEC opponents. THe last two weeks they faced UAB, a team that runs the ball over 60% of the time, so I think they’ll be ready for this game. This game will be in New Orleans inside so weather won’t impact this game at all and I like for MIddle Tennessee to have a shot to win the game outright. |
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12-15-18 | Eastern Michigan +3 v. Georgia Southern | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan +3.5 -120 4% Play You can find Eastern Michigan at +100 or +105 at +3, so buying the half point here is worth it to me with a team that typically plays in a lot of close games. The public is heavily on Georgia Southern from the Sun Belt, and I don't understand exactly why. While the MAC Conference has not done well in recent years, just 1-4 last year in bowl games I think that gives us some value. Eastern Michigan is a team that played very well out of conference play beating Purdue on the road, something Ohio State could not do, playing right with San Diego State on the road in which was their third road game in a row. This team is very excited to be here, and plays with a lot of passion and heart, and I expect that their preparation had just a little more effort than Georgia Southern, the favorite. Georgia Southern will run the option, and that typically gives teams issues. However, we saw one team with a worse run defense than Eastern Michigan - Louisiana Monroe ranks 79th to Eastern Michigan's 69th hold Georgia Southern to 138 yards and 3 yards per carry. Why? Monroe had an extra week to prepare. Here we have Eastern Michigan who already saw the option and plenty of time to prepare. Eastern Michigan lost one game by more than a TD and yes that was against Army who also runs the option. However, Eastern Michigan held Army to just 4 yards per carry their second fewest yards per carry on the season. The issue was they could not stop Army on third down. What differs between Army and Georgia's Southern's offense is Army has a lot more experience running it to perfection and they are much more efficient. Army one of the best in the country converting third downs at a 55% clip compared to Georgia Southern's 39% third down clip. Eastern Michigan one of the better 3rd down defenses holding opponents to 37%, and in the red zone their defense is excellent holding opponents to 47% TD's. It's also not like Georgia Southern has been consistent running the ball they have struggled in other games against Troy, who does have a good run defense, but also against Texas State who ranks 85th in run defense. So 2 poor run defenses have held Georgia Southern in check. Georgia Southern also relied greatly on turnovers, and lead the nation at +22, as they did not have a single game with a negative TO margin, and only one at even. I think that can change having not played in a few weeks, getting used to hard hitting football I would not be shocked if Eastern MIchigan forced some fumbles here. Eastern Michigan 9th in TO margin, so it should be a good match-up there. This game will have limited possessions with two run first teams and the total is a very low 45 and has dropped from the 47.5. Take the dog in bowl games where the total is less than 55 and you would cover the spread 55% of the time. Another winning trend is fading the % of bets on a side, and you have to do it late when public money comes in, and as of this morning we have well over 60% of the money coming in on Georgia Southern, despite not getting the best of the line move which has moved more than 5 points. Taking Eastern Michigan is well worth the value here. |
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12-09-18 | Rams v. Bears +3 | 6-15 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
Bears +3 3.3% play |
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12-09-18 | Steelers v. Raiders +10 | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Raiders +10 3.3% play |
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12-09-18 | Colts +4.5 v. Texans | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
Colts +4.5 5.5% NFL POD |
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12-08-18 | Navy +7 v. Army | Top | 10-17 | Push | 0 | 100 h 34 m | Show |
Navy +7 5.5% NCAAF POD This is a lot of points in a game that will have limited possessions due to the style of play that these two will face off with. Navy has played a lot better down the stretch of the season, and this game is always tight, because these teams know how to defend the option. Navy looks to avenge losing the last two years and they haven't covered the spread in 5 years. However, this is a large shift in this series and I don't believe it is justified. Army regularly the dog now a big favorite, and they won outright the last 2 years by 1 point, and 4 points, and have been an average dog of 11.8 points the last 5 years, and now they are a 7 point favorite. I don't think their is a talent gap that large, and Navy plays a tougher schedule. Army usually playing well in the dog role is now a TD favorite, and I just don't buy it. I've been very impressed with what Jeff Monken has done here, and I have bet on Army on the ML the last few years, but this year I'm going with the value side and backing a Navy team that has played a lot better. |
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12-02-18 | Chargers v. Steelers -3 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -107 | 22 h 20 m | Show |
Steelers -3 5.5% NFL POD |
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12-02-18 | Panthers -3 v. Bucs | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 1 m | Show | |
Panthers -3 3.3% play |
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12-02-18 | Browns +6 v. Texans | 13-29 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
Browns +6 4.4% play |
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12-01-18 | Northwestern v. Ohio State -14 | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 124 h 11 m | Show | |
Ohio State -14 3.3% play Northwestern has played over their head all year long, and I'm going to grab this number now before it gets to 14.5, I can always play it back at +14.5 or higher if I feel Northwestern is the right side as I think it will go there. Ohio State has every reason to blow out Northwestern, and I think they can. We have seen some pretty lopsided games in the Big Ten Championship before especially when a team is not guaranteed a spot in the college football playoff, and need to impress. The last time this happened Ohio State beat Wisconsin 59-0. I think Ohio State figured some things out on both sides of the ball that showed up in their last game. Right now they are competing with Oklahoma for that final spot, and they need to be more impressive. If Texas for some reason wins earlier against Oklahoma, I will look to buy back at +14.5 or higher. |
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12-01-18 | Memphis v. Central Florida -3 | 41-56 | Win | 100 | 42 h 56 m | Show | |
UCF -3 3.3% play I like the bump we are going to get from UCF’s team here with a ton of play for. Not only are they going to be coming out to play for their fallen QB Milton, but they are playing for a second undefeated season in a row. Everyone is saying Milton is worth 7 points, but I’m not buying that and I think there is a ton of value here on UCF at -3. Darriel Mack is not the passer that Milton was there is no question, but he’s a much better runner, and gives this UCF offense something different for Memphis to defend. Mack is extremely athletic and has 281 yards rushing on only 40 carries. That’s over 7 yards per carry. Memphis won’t have a passing game either so all this talk about Mack not being able to throw very well does not worry me, because UCF’s pass defense and pass rush is so much better than Memphis that it will even out.
Memphis rushing offense and defense completely different in their home/away splits. They average 1.88 yards per carry less on the road, and allow .97 yards per carry more. Last time I checked UCF actually has the better rushing team here ranking 8th, but faced a tougher schedule now they add in a dynamic running QB, and Memphis could be in a bit of trouble here on the road. Home field advantage is another great equalizer and I think the fans are going to be jacked up for this one. When we look at the strength of schedule UCF has faced an average defense ranking 65.2 in ypp, compared to Memphis at 85.63. THeir defenses are also pretty similar but again UCF faced an average ypp offense 60.4, compared to MEmphis 73.09 rank. Another thing many are not talking about is UCF ranks 2nd in TO margin, and it’s a big part of their defense compare that with Memphis who ranks 59th. There is also a special teams advantage here as UCF ranks 62nd compared to Memphis 112th rank and finally red zone defense. Memphis allowing over 70% red zone trips to turn into TD’s, while UCF is allowing 50%, UCF also not giving up a ton of explosive plays ranking 53rd in explosive defense compared to Memphis ranking 86th. |
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12-01-18 | Texas +8 v. Oklahoma | 27-39 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 54 m | Show | |
Texas +8 4.4% Play Texas brought in David Beaty (KANSAS HC) to help with Oklahoma tendencies, I can only view this as a positive, because if Texas can pick up on anything defensively to help them get off the field that will help their chances of covering this game. Now, a lot has been made of the match up being decided by 7 or less points the last six meetings and Tom Herman's success as a dog, but that's not why I'm betting on Texas. Sharps pointing to Oklahoma, are stating that Oklahoma dominated the box score int he first matchup, and while that is true it really is misleading, because Texas doesn't have an explosive offense, and that's totally fine they were still 50% successful on offensive plays, and it's actually better that they run a methodical offense, that dominates time of posession. They rank 20th in TOP, and had a +8 minute advantage in the first game. They were also up by 21 points in the 4th quarter before Oklahoma came back in a frenzy. I think Texas has a lot to learn from their last match up and the oddsmakers are saying not much has changed and I agree. The one thing that did change was the defensive coordinator for Oklahoma was fired, and Rufin McNeil has taken over the last 6 games. they got an initial jump but against two bad offenses in TCU & Kansas State. Over the last 4 games the defense has been desperate to try to even switch up their defensive formation to a 4-3 against Kansas, and they gave up 40 points and over 340 yards rushing. I just don't think this team has the playmakers, and they don't match-up well against Texas tall receivers, and the physical play that Texas brings in the running game is another advantage for Texas here. Texas is getting healthier, and Oklahoma might be without two starting CB's here who are questionable for the game. I do question Ehlinger's arm health and that would be my one and only concern about this game. I think Texas will hold onto the ball and limit the plays Oklahoma has, but at the end of the day they are built for this match-up. It has been the reason they have given Oklahoma issues over the years, and I don't see anything changing in this game as Texas will be in the game at the end with a chance to win. |
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11-30-18 | Northern Illinois +3.5 v. Buffalo | Top | 30-29 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
Northern Illinois +3.5 4.4% NCAAF POD Northern Illinois & Buffalo have 6 common conference opponents, and Northern Illinois is +74 yards per game, while Buffalo is only +24 yards in those games, yet Buffalo is a favorite over a field goal, because Northern Illinois dropped their last two games that were meaningless considering they had this trip locked up 3 weeks ago. Northern Illinois also comes from the stronger West Division in this conference, and has a lot of experience getting to Detroit. Buffalo has been here once, 10 years ago. In non-conference play Northern Illinois by far faced a tougher schedule with Iowa, Utah, BYU, and Florida State while Buffalo had Temple (okay), Delaware State, Army (got blown out), and Rutgers. Buffalo is led by their QB Tyree Jackson, who has been a shell of himself over the past three games, he passed for 126 yards/game, 49% completion percentage, with only 2 TD's and 3 INT's. The passing defenses he's faced over those three games rank 102nd, 88th, and 92nd. The "alleged" NFL talent with the big arm has not impressed me down the stretch, and Northern Illinois has the 30th ranked pass defense, with one of the best pass rushers and they rank 26th at getting to the QB. Ohio, who ranked 69th vs. the run, and 88th vs. the pass, and 55th in sack rate held Buffalo to 17 points. I expect Northern Illinois to make this their type of game. Northern Illinois will play great defense, special teams, and control the line of scrimmage. Northern Illinois has a running QB in Marcus Childers who had 456 rushing yards in conference play. Buffalo's rush defense was really challenged by Ohio giving up over 400 yards, and could not defend their QB Nathan Rourke who had 77 yards rushing. When Northern Illinois played Ohio they controlled the line of scrimmage holding Ohio to 46 yards, as they ran for 255. I expect Northern Illinois with the better defense to do the same in this game, and the fact that they are dogs on a neutral field has me excited to be betting this one. Northern Illinois also the better special teams here ranking 43rd. compared to Buffalo's 90th ranking. |
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11-29-18 | Saints v. Cowboys +8 | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 1 h 15 m | Show | |
Cowboys +7.5 2.2% play |
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11-25-18 | Packers v. Vikings -3 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
Vikings -3 -115 3.3% play |